FOMC Minutes Show 'Most Officials Fear Risk Of Cutting Too Quickly', Staff Mention Financial Stability Issues --The Fed is worried about cutting too soon more than waiting too long...“Most participants noted the risks of moving too quickly to ease the stance of policy and emphasized the importance of carefully assessing incoming data in judging whether inflation is moving down sustainably to 2%.” And the higher stocks go, and lower crediot spreads go, the less urgency the need for a rate-cut:"Several participants mentioned the risk that financial conditions were or could become less restrictive than appropriate, which could add undue momentum to aggregate demand and cause progress on inflation to stall."So, be careful what you wish for. Rate-cut expectations have plummeted since the last FOMC meeting with March now off the table and 2024 total cuts down from 6 cuts to a 50-50 call between 3 and 4 cuts...And as rate-cut expectations fell so Treasury yields rose notably with the short-end up over 30bps...As The Fed has clearly won the jawboning battle to bring the market back to dot-plot reality... All eyes will be on the Minutes for an explanation of why they pushed back against a March cut (but as a reminder, all the 'ugly' data - hot NFP, hot CPI, hot PPI - came after the Minutes). So, what do they want us to know? The headlines from the minutes are as follows:On cutting rates (policymakers were more concerned about the risks of moving too soon to cut interest rates than waiting too long):“Most participants noted the risks of moving too quickly to ease the stance of policy and emphasized the importance of carefully assessing incoming data in judging whether inflation is moving down sustainably to 2%.” On tapering QT:“Some participants remarked that, given the uncertainty surrounding estimates of the ample level of reserves, slowing the pace of runoff could help smooth the transition to that level of reserves or could allow the committee to continue balance sheet runoff for longer.”On inflation fears:"Upside risks included easier financial conditions and stronger growth. Others cited were “possible disruptions to supply chains from geopolitical developments, a potential rebound in core goods prices as the effects of supply-side improvements dissipate, or the possibility that wage growth remains elevated.”"A few participants mentioned the possibility that economic activity could surprise to the upside and inflation to the downside because of more-favorable-than-expected supply-side developments."On inflation surprises (the recent bad news on the inflation front will have come as a surprise to Fed officials): “Many participants indicated that they expected core nonhousing services inflation to gradually decline further as the labor market continued to move into better balance and wage growth moderated further. Various participants noted that housing services inflation was likely to fall further as the deceleration in rents on new leases continued to pass through to measures of such inflation.”It didn't: On financial conditions:"Several participants mentioned the risk that financial conditions were or could become less restrictive than appropriate, which could add undue momentum to aggregate demand and cause progress on inflation to stall."On geopolitical risks:“geopolitical risks that could result in a material pullback in demand” and also “possible negative spillovers from lower growth in some foreign economies.” On macro data accuracy (or not):While the recent trends prior to the meeting had been remarkably positive, Fed officials judged that some of the recent improvement “reflected idiosyncratic movements in a few series.”The staff outlook had some notable highlights:
- Staff economic outlook was slightly stronger than December projection.
- Staff placed some weight on chance that further progress on lowering inflation could take longer than expected
- Staff forecast risks to economic forecast skewed to the downside.
And most notably, The Fed staff sounds a little nervous over financial stability issues:“as valuations across a range of markets appeared high relative to fundamentals” and “house prices increased to the upper end of their historical range.”On CRE (worst to come):CRE prices continued to decline, especially in the multifamily and office sectors, and low levels of transactions in the office sector likely indicated that prices had not yet fully reflected the sector’s weaker fundamentals. And in the last few minutes, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman says that the current economic environment doesn’t warrant the central bank cutting interest rates.
Fed's Waller sees 'no rush' to cut interest rates (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers should delay interest rate cuts by at least another couple more months to see if a recent uptick in inflation signals stalling progress toward price stability or is just a bump in the road, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday. Core consumer prices rose 0.4% in January from a month earlier, well above the pace consistent with the Fed's 2% annual inflation goal. That, along with a 3.3% annualized increase in fourth-quarter GDP and the more than 350,000 jobs added to the U.S. economy in January, "has reinforced my view that we need to verify that the progress on inflation we saw in the last half of 2023 will continue and this means there is no rush to begin cutting interest rates to normalize monetary policy," Waller said in remarks prepared for delivery in Minneapolis. Progress on inflation, he said, has been both "real" and "considerable." Accounting for the latest data, he said, January inflation by the core personal consumption expenditures index - to be released next week - will likely come in at 2.8%. It stood at 4.9% a year ago. While inflation is still "likely" on track to reach the Fed's 2% goal, he said, "I am going to need to see at least another couple more months of inflation data before I can judge whether January was a speed bump or a pothole." And with most other economic data suggesting the economy is still fundamentally solid, he said, "the risk of waiting a little longer to ease policy is lower than the risk of acting too soon and possibly halting or reversing the progress we’ve made on inflation." The U.S. central bank has held its policy rate steady in the 5.25%-5.5% range since last July, and minutes of its policysetting meeting last month show most central bankers were, like Waller, worried about moving too quickly to ease policy. Waller's take on the economy and monetary policy have often been a bellwether for the Fed as a whole, and his remarks Thursday marked a change in tone from his last speech, in which he said the Fed is within "striking distance" of its inflation goal. Now, he said, he will be closely watching wage growth, economic activity and employment not only for any signs of weakness that could force the Fed to act more quickly, but also for whether they are "consistent with continued progress toward 2% inflation." Waller also pushed back on the idea that the Fed risks sending the economy into recession if it waits too long to cut rates, saying the Fed can afford to "wait a little longer" to ease policy. "In the absence of a major economic shock, delaying rate cuts by a few months should not have a substantial impact on the real economy in the near term," Waller said. "And, I think I have shown that acting too soon could squander our progress in inflation and risk considerable harm to the economy."
Fed's Waller wants more evidence inflation is cooling before cutting interest rates - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Thursday he will need to see more evidence that inflation is cooling before he is willing to support interest rate cuts. In a policy speech delivered in Minneapolis that concludes with the question, "What's the rush?" on cutting rates, the central bank official said higher-than-expected inflation readings for January raised questions on where prices are heading and how the Fed should respond. "Last week's high reading on CPI inflation may just be a bump in the road, but it also may be a warning that the considerable progress on inflation over the past year may be stalling," Waller said in prepared remarks. While he said he still expects the Federal Open Market Committee to begin lowering rates at some point this year, Waller said he sees "predominately upside risks" to his expectation that inflation will fall to the Fed's 2% goal. He added that there are few signs inflation will fall below 2% anytime soon based on strong 3.3% annualized growth in gross domestic product and employment, with few signs of a potential recession in sight. Waller is a permanent voting member on the FOMC. "That makes the decision to be patient on beginning to ease policy simpler than it might be," Waller said. "I am going to need to see at least another couple more months of inflation data before I can judge whether January was a speed bump or a pothole." The remarks are consistent with a general sentiment at the central bank that while further rate hikes are unlikely, the timing and pace of cuts is uncertain. The inflation data Waller referenced showed the consumer price index rose 0.3% in January and was up 3.1% from the same period a year ago, both higher than expected. Excluding food and energy, core CPI ran at a 3.9% annual pace, having risen 0.4% on the month. Reading through the data, Waller said it's likely that core personal consumption expenditures prices, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, will reflect a 2.8% 12-month gain when released later this month. Such elevated readings make the case stronger for waiting, he said, noting that he will be watching data on consumer spending, employment, and wages and compensation for further clues on inflation. Retail sales fell an unexpected 0.8% in January while payroll growth surged by 353,000 for the month, well above expectations. "I still expect it will be appropriate sometime this year to begin easing monetary policy, but the start of policy easing and number of rate cuts will depend on the incoming data," Waller said. "The upshot is that I believe the Committee can wait a little longer to ease monetary policy." Markets just a few weeks ago had been pricing in a high probability of a rate cut when the Fed next meets on March 19-20, according to fed funds futures bets gauged by the CME Group. However, that has been pared back to the June meeting, with the probability rising to about 1 in 3 that the FOMC may even wait until July. Earlier in the day, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson was noncommittal on the pace of cuts, saying only he expects easing "later this year" without providing a timetable. Governor Lisa Cook also spoke and noted the progress the Fed has made in its efforts to bring down inflation without tanking the economy. However, while she also expects to cut this year, Cook said, she "would like to have greater confidence" that inflation is on a sustainable path back to 2% before moving.
Fed's Cook: need more confidence on inflation before cutting rates (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook on Thursday said that with inflation easing and the labor market normalizing, the risks to the economy have become "two-sided," but it's not yet time to reduce interest rates. "I would like to have greater confidence that inflation is converging to 2% before beginning to cut the policy rate," she said in remarks prepared for delivery to Princeton University’s School of Public and International Affairs. While it is "reasonable" to expect inflation to get to the Fed's 2% goal over time, the path toward that goal has been and could still be "bumpy and uneven," she said, citing recent stronger-than-expected readings on consumer price inflation. At the same time, she said, the risks to the economy are no longer weighted toward excessive inflation alone. Supply chains have recovered, and so has labor supply; consumer spending has been strong, but with wage growth slowing, there are "reasons to expect some moderation going forward," she said. There are also a raft of uncertainties ahead, including the potential for conflict in the Red Sea to impede supply more than it has so far, as well as longer-term issues including climate change, productivity growth and deglobalization. As for monetary policy, she said, "I am now weighing the possibility of easing policy too soon and letting inflation stay persistently high versus easing policy too late and causing unnecessary harm to the economy." Once data delivers greater confidence that disinflation is sustainable, she said, "at some point" the Fed will be able to cut rates. "We should continue to move carefully as we receive more data, maintaining the degree of policy restriction needed to sustainably restore price stability while keeping the economy on a good path," she said. The U.S. central bank has held its policy rate steady in the 5.25%-5.5% range since last July, and minutes of its policysetting meeting last month show most central bankers were worried about moving too quickly to ease policy. Traders are betting the Fed will not start cutting interest rates until its June 11-12 meeting.
The Fed Wants to Drive QT as Far as Possible Without Blowing Stuff Up, and it’s Working on a Plan: FOMC Minutes By Wolf Richter This has been in the works for a while and has come out in bits and pieces, but today the Fed made it official in the FOMC meeting minutes: It doesn’t know how far it can take QT without blowing up stuff, but it wants to reduce its balance sheet as far as possible without blowing up stuff. QT has already reduced the Fed’s balance sheet by $1.34 trillion. And so far, nothing has blown up. But last time it did QT, the repo market blew up.The issue with withdrawing liquidity from the market via Quantitative Tightening is that this liquidity is taken out through a couple of drains that are close together – the Fed’s roll-off of Treasury securities and MBS – but liquidity has to flow there from all directions, and it may drain out faster in one corner, and that corner then runs out of liquidity and blows up, while there is still excess liquidity in other corners.Yields solve that problem normally. The corner that is running out of liquidity will be willing to pay higher yields to attract liquidity from the corner that has excess, but the process is not instant; it can take too much time, and then something runs out of liquidity and blows up while at the other side of the markets, there is too much liquidity.This hasn’t happened yet in QT-2, which is still running “smoothly,” as the FOMC minutes said today.But it happened with QT-1 in September 2019, when the repo market blew out because banks were running low on excess liquidity and refused to lend to the repo market, and a repo-market panic ensued and threatened with contagion, and so the Fed stepped into the repo market and helter-skelter doused it with nearly $400 billion in liquidity, which raised its balance sheet again, thereby undoing a big part of QT-1. And that is to be avoided this time. So the Fed’s solution seems to be two-fold, that’s what we see:
- 1. Withdrawing the liquidity slowly enough so it has time to flow to where it’s needed with minimal disruption, allowing QT to drain liquidity evenly until the balance sheet reaches the lowest comfortable level without blowing anything up. If something blows up, it would put a premature end to QT.This topic was first broached in early January by Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan and dealt with at the time here in our illustrious comments. Slowing QT would reduce “the likelihood that we’d have to stop prematurely,” she’s said. And today, it was officially put on the table via the FOMC minutes.
- 2. A Standing Repo Facility that everyone knows will be there; and its mere presence, even if inactive, will tamp down on a panic. The Fed had an SRF through 2008, that was its classic measure to deal with market issues before QE, including during 9/11 when markets froze and were shut down.Repos mature within a day or within a week or two weeks, or some relatively short term, and if they’re not rolled over, they then vanish from the balance sheet automatically. They don’t cling to the balance sheet for years or decades like QE assets.But in 2009, the Fed skuttled its SRF because it wasn’t needed with the huge amount of QE the Fed was doing at the time. But it didn’t revive it when QT started, and in September 2019, after nearly two years of QT, with no SRF on standby, it had to scramble and improvise as the repo market was already blowing up.So this time around, in July 2021, a year before QT started, the Fed revived its classic SRF in preparation for QT. So that’s done…
Yields Surge After Terrible 20Y Auction With Biggest Tail On Record Despite some optimistic expectations (most notably from Bloomberg's Markets Live blog) that today's 20Y auction would "stop through with long list of positives", moments ago the Treasury sold 20Y paper with disastrous metrics which sent yields sharply higher across the board.The high yield of 4.595% was well above last month's 4.423% but worse, it tailed the When Issued 4.562% by a whopping 3.30bps, which was the biggest tail on record for the tenor since the 20Y auction was introduced in May 2020. The bid to cover tumbled to 2.39, down from 2.53, well below the 2.59 six-auction average, and was the lowest since August 2022. The internals were even uglier, with Indirects awarded just 59.08%, lower than last month's 62.16%, sharply lower than recent average of 68.2% and the lowest since May 2021. And with Directs taking down 19.7%, Dealers were left holding 21.2%, the most since May 2021.Overall this was a very ugly auction, despite the substantial concession thanks to the ongoing selling in rates (perhaps due to the $13.5BN in debt issuance just announced by Cisco to fund its Splunk purchase), and while it is unclear why demand was so terrible perhaps one can attribute it to nerves from today's FOMC Minutes which however should be a non-event as they are already rather dated and do not reflect the latest reflationary spike. In any case, yields promptly spiked with the 10Y rising as high as 4.325% before retracing some of the move, which also sent stocks sliding briefly before recovering.
Chairman Powell We Have Been on Your Unsustainable Path for More Than 40 Years - On February 4, 2024, 60 Minutes’ Scott Pelley interviewed Federal Reserve Bank Chairman, Jerome Powell. Topics included inflation risks and the U.S. economy, the timeline for cutting U.S. Federal Funds Rate, the current health of U.S. banks, and Powell’s compelling admission that the Fed erred in declaring mid-2021 inflation to be transitory and missed tell-tale signs of Silicon Valley Bank’s insolvency. However, Mr. Pelley’s most impressive feat was getting Chairman Powell to express his concern over U.S. fiscal policy and our growing national debt, something that he has heretofore resisted as chairman of the Federal Reserve. Pelley cited the terrifying claim that in just 30 years the U.S. national debt is projected to be $144 trillion or $1 million per household. Pelley then asked, “How do you assess the national debt?” Powell was deferential, explaining that it is not the Fed’s job to instruct Congress on how to manage fiscal policy. But on further questioning, Powell responded boldly and uncharacteristically, “In the long run, the U.S. is on an unsustainable fiscal path [because] the debt is growing faster than the economy.” We are borrowing from future generations and have gotten off the path of fiscal sustainability. But the economy, Powell argued, is dynamic, innovative, flexible, and adaptable. Its strength has also enabled us to defend democracy and global economic security. Powell’s statement was refreshing because it indicated that we may, finally, be ready to have a serious conversation on debt. We have trod this path for more than 40 years. It’s time to confront the debt load being not sustainable. In 1981, our national debt was just 31.1% of U.S. GDP, with the U.S. national debt at $998 billion and U.S. GDP at $3.21 trillion. Forty-three years later, we have ignored every call to reduce the debt and get our fiscal house in order. For the fiscal year ending September 30, 2023, the U.S. national debt of $31.17 trillion was at an alarming 114% of America’s $27.36 trillion GDP. While U.S. GDP has increased by 7.52 times since 1981, our national debt has increased over 30 times in the same period! It’s time to take the advice of John Maxwell, who noted that a man must be “big enough to admit his mistakes, smart enough to profit from them, and strong enough to correct them.” Excessive government spending and record-high deficits during pre-Hitler Germany’s Weimar Republic imposed high taxes and hyperinflation, collapsing one of the largest and most prosperous economies of its time. Germany’s problem became a world problem as an otherwise wise and peaceful populace elected a tyrant who unleashed devastation on much of the world. Similar fiscal and monetary mismanagement plunged much of the world into chaos when the Roman Empire fell in 476 A.D. What cost would the loss of the order brought by a collapse of the United States economy impose on the world? According to the U.S. Treasury, our national debt is now just over $34.2 trillion, or $264,945 per taxpayer. It took more than two centuries from 1776 to record a total national debt of $1 trillion but only 29 additional years to grow it to $13.5 trillion in 2010. In less than 14 years, our national debt grew to more than $34.2 trillion — with over half the current fiscal year yet to be recorded. Now at 122.72% of GDP, with more than $800 billion in interest payments on treasury bonds and treasury bills to finance the deficit, interest on the national debt is the fourth largest item in the federal budget. Only Medicare/Medicaid programs, Social Security, and our national defense take up more. For more than a decade we financed this monstrous debt at interest rates below 2%. As of October 2023, the new blended average interest rate reflects our 40-year high spike in inflation, at roughly 3.05%, and is likely to go higher. By the end of our current fiscal year or next, we predict Americans will have paid annually more than $1.0 trillion in interest on the debt — roughly double the interest burden of the fiscal year 2021-22. If our prediction comes true, interest on the national debt will become the third largest item in the federal budget. How long before it becomes the largest? Powell has admitted the problem. Now, we must gather the strength to correct it. Raising taxes is not the solution. The National Taxpayers Union explains that the top 1% of income earners in America paid 45.78% of all personal income taxes generated in the United States in 2021. How much more can we ask of them? Higher taxes discourage production and drive productivity to countries with lower taxes. Only lower taxes and sensible regulations can grow the economy and increase our tax revenue. More importantly, we must cut spending. Forty nine of 50 states are required by law to balance their budgets. Is it time for a national balanced budget amendment?
Japan and the UK are in recessions. Is the US next? - And just like that, two of the world’s largest economies are in technical recessions.On Thursday, Japan and the UK both reported their second consecutive negative quarters of gross domestic product, fitting the widely agreed-upon definition of a recession. Could the US, the world’s largest economy, be next? Far from it.Japan’s economic contraction is connected to its shrinking population, wrote Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, in a note Thursday. In 2022, the nation’s population declined by 800,000, marking the 14th consecutive year of contraction. That limits the country’s ability to grow because it means “fewer people make and consume fewer things,” Donovan said. In the UK, however, population and wage growth weren’t sufficient to stave off a drop in consumer spending, one of the main drivers of that economy.The polar opposite occurred in the US. In the past two quarters, the nation’s economy experienced much higher than expected GDP growth, due in large part to robust consumer spending. The US economy has an edge over most advanced economies thanks to $5 trillion in pandemic stimulus money, which continues to help bolster household finances. Another advantage is being less dependent on Russian energy, making it less vulnerable than many other countries to the surge in natural gas prices that followed the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.But Thursday’s US retail sales data for the month of January came in much lower than expected, suggesting Americans could be fastening their belts a little more tightly after a record holiday season.Still, the labor market remains remarkably strong, as evidenced by the nation’s unemployment rate, which has stayed below 4% for 24 straight months. The US economy could be in a recession right now without Americans knowing it.That’s because the economy isn’t broadly and officially considered to be in a recession until a relatively unknown groupof eight economists says so.That group, known as the Business Cycle Dating Committee at the National Bureau of Economic Research, judges the onset of a recession retroactively based upon “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.”There’s no fixed rule about what that involves, but it could include factors like a spike in the unemployment rate, falling income, a major drop in spending or a negative economic growth rate. But, importantly, two consecutive negative quarters of GDP don’t always qualify as a recession. The US experienced that in 2022, and the NBER committee didn’t announce a recession.That said, the risk of a recession has been elevated since the US Federal Reserve began its tightening cycle in March 2022, Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters in December. However, he said, “there’s little basis for thinking that the economy is in a recession now.”But even when the economy seems as though it’s never been better, there’s always the possibility of a recession in the next year, Powell added.That’s because unforeseen economic shocks — like, say, a global pandemic — can arise at any point. Putting that aside, Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, Boston Consulting Group’s global chief economist, doesn’t think the US will enter a recession this year. Rather, “it’s going to be a slow-growth year,” he said.While he doesn’t think it’s likely, one potential path to a recession in the US could be if the Fed doesn’t cut interest rates at all this year.Since investors are widely pricing in the possibility of multiple rate cuts in 2024, if they don’t pan out it could damage financial markets badly enough to ignite a recession, said Carlsson-Szlezak
"Close To A Deal Or It's About To Blow Up": Speaker Johnson Enters McCarthy Territory As March Deadline Looms --While House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) last week told reporters "We think we're going to meet the deadlines" to avert a government shutdown, House Republicans are preparing for the worst closed doors, Axios reports."People are predicting a shutdown even if it's just for a few days," one GOP lawmaker told the outlet, which notes that the government will start a two-phased government shutdown unless a budget or spending stopgap is passed by March 1.They're either "close to reaching a deal or it's about to blow up," one subcommittee chair recently told a fellow House Republican.Meanwhile, if a new budget isn't agreed upon by April 30, it will trigger a 1% across-the-board spending cut - meaning that even if a stopgap is reached, Democrats won't back anything past that date (since across-the-board cuts would be "A-OK for some House conservatives").Johnson will have to either stage a fight with Democrats that threatens a shutdown, or work with Democrats to help pass a stopgap - exactly the move that resulted in Johnson's predecessor, Kevin McCarthy, being ousted from his role.
- Johnson's simple but risky option to avoid a shutdown would be to use Democratic votes to pass a deal with a two-thirds majority.
- But McCarthy's ouster in October was sparked by him working with Democrats on a spending stopgap.
- "It's going to be difficult to do what we need to do and not have someone do" a motion to vacate, a member who isn't supportive of removing Johnson told Axios. -Axios
That said, Republicans have no plans for what to do if they oust Johnson and make yet another competition for Speaker the central focus going into May.The report comes months after Congress kicked the can down the road with an 87-11 vote to back a temporary funding package.Meanwhile, the House - which is on recess, isn't scheduled to return until Feb. 28, just days before the March 1 partial shutdown is set to trigger. If there isn't a plan by March 8, a full shutdown will occur.
Freedom Caucus pushes Speaker Johnson for full-year CR in absence of policy concessions --The House Freedom Caucus pressed Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) to put forward a yearlong stopgap funding bill, which would trigger automatic cuts to government spending, if he can’t win concessions on controversial conservative policy riders. In a letter to Johnson on Wednesday, the hard-line conservative caucus also asked for an update regarding spending talks with Democrats ahead of a March 1 deadline to prevent a partial government shutdown.“With the expiration of government funding rapidly approaching, negotiations continue behind closed doors and as a result, we anticipate text for likely omnibus legislation that we fear will be released at the latest moment before being rushed to the floor for a vote,” the caucus stated in the letter. “House Republicans should not be left in the dark on the status of the spending levels and hard-fought policy provisions.” Johnson has faced pressure from his right flank to hold the line for lower spending in ongoing bipartisan talks and to push for a laundry list of policy riders related to abortion, diversity initiatives, border issues and other GOP priorities.Included in a list of provisions outlined in the letter are measures that would reduce “Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas’ salary to $0,” target the Pentagon’s abortion travel policy and defund Planned Parenthood, as well as other items taking aim some of the Biden administration’s actions on student loans and funding for what it described as a “new, massive Pentagon-sized headquarters for the Federal Bureau of Investigation.” “Many of these important policies (and more) were critical in securing the passage of bills in both the Appropriations Committee and in the House last year,” according to the letter. “There are MANY other policies and personnel that Congress should not be funding, and a failure to eliminate them will reduce the probability that the appropriations bills will be supported by even a majority of Republicans.” “If we are not going to secure significant policy changes or even keep spending below the caps adopted by bipartisan majorities less than one year ago, why would we proceed when we could instead pass a year-long funding resolution that would save Americans $100 billion in year one?” the group asked. Under a budget caps deal brokered between President Biden and then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) last year, lawmakers agreed to set new spending limits to adhere to for fiscal 2024, as well as a penalty for automatic cuts that could take effect in April if Congress didn’t finish its funding work on time. However, some experts have warned that dollars for government programs could suffer from much tighter constraints than lawmakers bargained for as part of budget caps agreement in the event of a full-year continuing resolution (CR) funding plan — an idea that has already drawn opposition from Democrats and Republicans.
GOP shutdown fears grow: ‘We could be in a world of hurt’ - Leaders in both parties are racing to secure a deal on government spending as the negotiation window quickly closes and the fears of a shutdown grow more pronounced. Congress returns to Washington next week facing a pair of looming funding deadlines — March 1 for a handful of agencies and March 8 for the rest — leaving lawmakers with little time to iron out their differences and get bills to the floor to keep the government open. While Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has moved deftly to avoid a shutdown since taking the gavel in October, restive conservatives are losing patience with his willingness to cut budget deals across the aisle. And some observers on Capitol Hill are already warning that the current fight is the greatest shutdown threat of this Congress. “I’m worried. Of all the scares we’ve had since the last fiscal year, I think this is going to be the scariest. I think we could be in a world of hurt,” said a Senate GOP aide. “I don’t know if it’ll be a partial or a full, but I think the chances of a shutdown are the highest we’ve had this fiscal year.” Party leaders in both chambers have sought to assure the public — and the markets — that the sides will come together to adopt their appropriations bills and avoid any disruptions to government operations. But a number of disagreements remain between the parties. And Johnson is facing additional pressures from within his own Republican conference, where conservatives are demanding right-wing policy riders that are a non-starter with Democrats in both Congress and the White House. The mix of factors — political, tactical and temporal — is sparking plenty of concerns that Congress will be unable to reach the agreement to prevent the partial shutdown that’s looming at the end of next week. “I think the odds are 50-50 at this point,” Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) told CBS’s Major Garrett on “The Takeout” podcast this week. McHenry, chair of the Financial Services Committee, called the current shutdown threat “a preventable disaster” — one that might have been avoided if party leaders had moved the spending bills late last year instead of kicking the process into an election year. He’s urging Johnson to resist the ultimatums from his conservative wing and move forward with whatever agreements emerge from the talks between appropriators, who have been working furiously through the holiday recess to finalize their bills in time for the first deadline next Friday. A deal is expected to be released as early as Sunday “All the Speaker has to do is allow the Appropriations Committee to go get a deal,” McHenry said. “If the Speaker wishes to stop it, for whatever reason, we’ll probably have a government shutdown.”
China Blasts US For Giving Israel "License To Kill" After UN Veto - China has let its frustration be known after the US was the lone veto to Tuesday's UN Security Council vote urging a ceasefire in Gaza, which would have brought immense international pressure to bear on Israel to stop its offensive. The UN text called for an "immediate humanitarian ceasefire" and was proposed by Algeria for the 15-member Security Council's approval. It was seen as having widespread Arab backing. The vote was 13-1 with the UK abstaining and the US being the lone 'no' vote, which is a familiar pattern historically on Israel-related issues.China's envoy to the UN has said the US stance is tantamount to handing Israel a "license to kill" as it's "nothing different from giving the green light to the continued slaughter," according to the words of Chinese Ambassador to teh UN Zhang Jun."The U.S. veto sends a wrong message, pushing the situation in Gaza into a more dangerous one," said Zhang further, at a moment the death toll in Gaza is approaching 30,000 - according to Palestinian sources.Zhang also denounced the official US excuse and justification for the no vote, which said the resolution if passed would interfere with sensitive ongoing diplomatic negotiations to achieve peace and free the hostages. According to more from the full statement published in Chinese state media:The U.S. claim that a resolution would interfere with the ongoing diplomatic efforts is totally untenable. Given the situation on the ground, the continued passive avoidance of an immediate cease-fire is nothing different from giving the green light to the continued slaughter, he said.While the draft resolution has been vetoed, the spillover of the conflict is destabilizing the entire Middle East region, leading to rising risks of a wider war. Only by extinguishing the flames of war in Gaza can the world prevent the fires of hell from engulfing the entire region. The Security Council must act quickly to stop this carnage, said Zhang.In a press conference after the vote, US ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield issued some ill-chosen words which are being called out by a number of independent journalists, critics, and Palestinian supporters."All told, we intend to do this the right way, so that we can create the right conditions for a safer, more peaceful future. And we will continue to actively engage in the hard work of direct diplomacy on the ground until we reach a final solution," she said.
$14 Billion US Aid Package for Israel Crafted to Prepare for 'Multi-Front War,' Not Just Gaza - The $14 billion in additional military aid for Israel that President Biden is seeking was designed not just for operations in Gaza but also to prepare Israel for a “multi-front war,” The Times of Israel has reported.A senior Biden administration official told The Jewish Telegraphic Agencythat the $14 billion is “for Israel to defend itself in a multi-front war and to be sure it can deter a multi-front war.”Israel has been escalating airstrikes in Lebanon against Hezbollah, though many strikes have killed civilians. The fire across the border risks a full-blown war, and there are no signs tensions will ease anytime soon. Israeli officials have been threatening to invade if Hezbollah doesn’t move back from the Israel-Lebanon border. US officials have acknowledged to The Washington Post that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might view war in Lebanon as key to his political survival, as polling has shown Israelis want him to step down after the current conflict. Israel also appears to be attempting to provoke Iran as several members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have been killed by Israeli airstrikes in Syria since October 7. According to The New York Times, Israel was also behind a covert attack on two natural gas pipelines inside Iran.The $14 billion is packed into the $95 billion foreign military aid bill that passed through the Senate but has yet to be brought to the House floor for a vote as Republicans are still looking for a border deal. The legislation also includes about $60 billion for Ukraine, and $4.8 billion for Taiwan and other spending in the Asia Pacific. The $14 billion for Israel is on top of the $3.8 billion the country receives from the US each year. According to The Times of Israel, It includes $5.2 billion to go toward Israeli missile defense, which is seen as a critical necessity for a war with Hezbollah. Another $3.5 billion will replenish munitions Israel has used in Gaza. The US will use $4 billion US to refill its own stockpiles, including a contingency stockpile located in Israel that the Israeli military has been allowed to use for its operations in Gaza. Since October 7, the US has been shipping bombs and other types of weapons on a near-daily basis. According to the Israeli news site Ynet, the US has shipped over 25,000 tons of military equipment to support the Israeli slaughter in Gaza, which has killed over 29,000 Palestinians.
Nobody Who Gets Gaza Wrong Is Worth Listening To - - by Caitlin Johnstone -- I saw a comment from an Israel defender saying “You just lack the intellect to comprehend the complexities of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict!” Just in the last few days we learned that Israeli snipers have been deliberately picking off children in Gaza by shooting them in the head, that Israeli troops summarily executed a prisoner in handcuffs after sending him into a hospital to deliver a message to evacuate, and that Egypt has begun constructing refugee camps in the Sinai Desert to facilitate the ethnic cleansing of Gazans. This isn’t complex. “It’s complicated” is just some nonsense people say about things they don’t want you looking at too closely, like their dysfunctional relationship or their active genocide. I’ve actually stopped following people for getting Gaza wrong. People I’d previously followed for years. I disagree with literally everyone I follow on some issues at some times, but Gaza quickly became my red line. If you can’t get that one right, nothing else you have to say is worth a damn. I’ve never done that before, made a single-issue red line like that. In anti-imperialist circles you normally have to accept that a lot of people who get one issue right will get other issues wrong — someone who’s right on Israel-Palestine might swallow propaganda about Russia, someone who’s good on Ukraine and Syria might swallow the propaganda on China, etc. But Gaza is just SO obvious, such a clear-cut black and white case of right and wrong, that I have to assume there’s something seriously wrong with your internal navigation system if you can’t see it. If the teens on TikTok can see it but a professional foreign policy commentator cannot, then there’s something wrong with that professional foreign policy commentator.
US Drafts Its Own Gaza UN Resolution After Threatening to Veto Ceasefire - The US is circulating its own Gaza-related UN Security Council resolutionafter threatening to veto one being drafted by Algeria that calls for a humanitarian ceasefire.The new US version calls for the Security Council to express support for a “temporary ceasefire in Gaza as soon as practical, based on the formula of all hostages being released.”The resolution essentially reaffirms the US position that it opposes a permanent ceasefire in Gaza and doesn’t want a temporary one without a hostage deal. But as things stand now, a hostage deal is far off as Qatar, which is mediating the talks, said the prospects of an agreement are “not very promising.”The US resolution also warns Israel against launching an assault on Rafah under the current conditions. “The Security Council should underscore that such a major ground offensive should not proceed, under the current circumstances,” the resolution reads.But the US warning is meaningless since the Biden administration is not considering imposing any consequences on Israel if it invades Rafah and is still providing unconditional military support.Besides the military support, the US has also given Israel political cover to continue the slaughter in Gaza. The US has vetoed two resolutions at the Security Council for Israel so far and has dismissed the International Court of Justice’s ruling that it’s “plausible” Israel is committing genocide in Gaza.
US Vetoes Another Gaza Ceasefire Resolution at the UN Security Council - The US on Tuesday vetoed a resolution at the UN Security Council that called for a humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza. It marked the third time the US used its veto power on the Council to block a call for an end to the Israeli slaughter of Palestinians.The US was the only member to vote against the resolution, which was introduced by Algeria. The UK abstained, and all 13 other members voted in favor of the measure.US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield slammed the Algerian effort after the vote.“Proceeding with a vote today was wishful and irresponsible, and so while we cannot support a resolution that would put sensitive negotiations in jeopardy, we look forward to engaging on a text that we believe will address so many of the concerns we all share,” Thomas-Greenfield said.Thomas-Greenfield claims the resolution would disrupt US efforts to push for a hostage deal, but there’s no sign any progress is being made. Qatar’s prime minister, who is mediating, said over the weekend that the negotiations are “not very promising,” and Israel declined to attend the last round of in-person talks with US, Qatari, and Egyptian officials.The US is drafting its own resolution that calls for a “temporary ceasefire” if Hamas releases the hostages, which is essentially Israel’s position. The US resolution leaves open the possibility of Israel restarting military operations after the truce.So far, the Israeli slaughter has killed more than 29,000 Palestinians and wounded over 69,000. About two-thirds of the casualties are women and children. Despite the massive civilian casualty rate, the US continues to provide unconditional support and is preparing to send more bombs.
Doctors Without Borders Slams US for Vetoing Gaza Ceasefire Resolution at UN - The head of the international medical charity Doctors Without Borders/Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) slammed the US for vetoing a Gaza ceasefire resolution in testimony at the UN Security Council on Thursday and detailed the horrors Palestinian children are facing in the Gaza Strip due to the Israeli siege. “We are appalled by the willingness of the United States to use its powers as a permanent Council member to obstruct efforts to adopt the most evident of resolutions: one demanding an immediate and sustained ceasefire,” said MSF Secretary-General Christopher Lockyear.“Three times this Council has had an opportunity to vote for the ceasefire that is so desperately needed and three times the United States has used its veto power,” he said. “A new draft resolution by the United States ostensibly calls for a ceasefire. However, this is misleading at best.”The resolution that’s being drafted by the US calls for a “temporary ceasefire” if Israeli hostages are released, which is essentially Israel’s position. It leaves open the possibility of Israel restarting its military operations after the truce.Describing the situation for Palestinian children, Lockyear said medical teams have a new acronym: “WCNSF—wounded child, no surviving family.” He said after seeing their family members killed, some children as young as five years old said they no longer wanted to live.“Children who survive this war will not only bear the visible wounds of traumatic injuries but the invisible ones too—those of repeated displacement, constant fear, and witnessing family members literally dismembered before their eyes. These psychological injuries have led children as young as five to tell us they would prefer to die,” he said.
US Intel Has ‘Low Confidence’ in Israeli Claim a Dozen UN Staff Participated in Hamas Attack - The US and several other Western countries cut funding to the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) after Israel claimed that several members of the organization participated in the Hamas attack on October 7. The US intelligence community has “low confidence” in the veracity of the Israeli assertions. The Washington Post reports having evidence of a single UNRWA member in Israel.In January, Tel Aviv began circulating the claim that 12 members of UNRWA attacked Israel on October 7 and that scores of other members have ties to Hamas. The release of the claims was timed with the International Court of Justice ruling that Israel was plausibly committing genocide in Gaza.Earlier this month, Tel Aviv released a summary of its intelligence for the assertions to several news outlets. After reviewing the Israeli dossier, multiple outlets reported that Israel had provided no evidence to back the claims that members of UNRWA are aligned with Hamas.Still, Washington and several other top donors to UNRWA backed Tel Aviv’s allegations and cut funding to the agency. Secretary of State Antony Blinken described the claims as “highly, highly credible.”UNRWA is the most crucial aid organization to deliver aid to Gaza and prevent the famine from getting worse. In Gaza, one in six children is on the verge of starvation.The government in Tel Aviv maintains significant power and oversight over UNRWA. The organization provides Israel with a list of all employees annually, and Tel Aviv can demand that UNRWA sever ties with any of its staff.On Wednesday, the Wall Street Journal reported that a US intelligence assessment concluded it had “low confidence” in the Israeli claims. The intel assessment did not dispute all the Israeli claims, “but it provides a more measured appraisal of Israel’s assertions than public statements by US and Israeli officials,” according to the Journal.Last week, the Washington Post reported obtaining a video that showed one UNRWA social worker in southern Israel on October 7 and who was seen loading the body of an Israeli into a vehicle. The Post reports matching photos from social media of the UNRWA staff member and his vehicle to CCTV footage from southern Israel.While Washington often accepts all Israeli claims of crimes committed by Palestinians, the White House ignores even well-documented reports of Israeli war crimes in Gaza. Recently, the UN found several credible reports of Israeli forces committing rampant executions and sexual abuse of Palestinian women and girls. The Biden administration has claimed that it must support Israel because of the alleged sexual crimes of Hamas but will not curb weapons shipments to Tel Aviv when Israeli forces are reported committing similar offenses.
Asked About Dead Palestinian Kids, Rep. Andy Ogles Says 'Kill Em All' - Rep. Andy Ogles (R-TN) was confronted by peace activists in Washington on Tuesday about the Israeli slaughter in Gaza and sparked an outcry for saying “kill ’em all” when asked about Palestinian children being killed with US support.“I’ve seen the footage of shredded children’s bodies. That’s my taxpayer dollars that are going to bomb those kids,” an activist said to Ogles.“I think we should kill ’em all, if that makes you feel better,” Ogles replied. “Everybody in Hamas.”The comments sparked an outcry and backlash, including from within Ogles’ state of Tennessee. In response, Ogles’ office insisted he was specifically talking about Hamas, but the congressman said “kill ’em all” after the activist referenced children being killed by Israel with US support.Ogles also justified the brutal Israeli campaign in Gaza by saying, “Hamas and the Palestinians have been attacking Israel for 20 years. It’s time to pay the piper.” Rep. Brian Mast (R-FL), a former member of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), recently made similar comments when asked about babies being killed in Gaza. “These are not innocent Palestinian civilians across the world,” Mast said.
Iraqi Militias Stopped Attacks on US Forces at Request of Iranian General - A visit from an Iranian general to the Shia militias in Iraq led to a pause in attacks on US forces, Reuters reported on Sunday, citing Iranian and Iraqi sources.Brig. Gen. Esmail Qaani made the trip to Iraq on January 29, one day after three US troops were killed in a drone attack on a base in Jordan near the Syrian border. He warned that the death of the American soldiers would likely provoke a heavy American response and said the groups should lie low to avoid being targeted.A day after the visit, Kataib Hezbollah, one of the most powerful Shia militias in Iraq, announced it was suspending attacks on US troops. In its statement, Kataib Hezbollah said Iran “repeatedly declared opposition to our escalation against the US forces in Iraq and Syria.”Initially, one faction did not agree to the Iranian request, and there were a few more attacks on US bases, but there have been none since February 4, the day six US-backed Kurdish fighters were killed in a drone attack on a US facility in Syria.The lull in attacks is significant since US troops in Iraq and Syria have come under attack over 170 times due to US support for the Israeli slaughter in Gaza. The attacks started in October and only paused briefly in November during the seven-day truce in Gaza that was part of the Israel-Hamas hostage deal.The US launched a series of airstrikes on Iraq and Syria on February 2 that killed about 40 people, mostly members of Iraq’s militias. The US also killed a senior Kataib Hezbollah commander in a drone strike in Baghdad on February 7, but there was no response.The lack of response could also be attributed to the Iraqi government stepping up its efforts to get the US to withdraw from Iraq. The US airstrikes have infuriated Baghdad since Kataib Hezbollah and other Shia militias are part of Iraq’s security forces under the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a coalition formed in 2014 to fight ISIS.The US and Iraq have restarted talks on the future of the US military presence. An Iraqi military spokesman said, “Based on these meetings, a timetable will be formulated for a deliberate and gradual reduction leading to the end of the mission.” Iraqi prime ministers have been under pressure to expel US troops since January 2020, when Qaani’s predecessor, Gen. Qasem Soleimani, and PMF leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, were killed by a US drone strike. The Iraqi parliament voted unanimously for an end to the US military presence, but the US refused to leave.
Houthis Say They Shot Down US MQ-9 Reaper Drone - Yemen’s Houthis said on Monday that their forces downed an American MQ-9 Reaper Drone that was flying over Yemen. US officials have acknowledged that a US drone crashed and say they’re investigating the cause.“Yemeni air defenses were able to shoot down an American plane (MQ-9) with a suitable missile while it was carrying out hostile missions against our country on behalf of the Zionist entity,” Houthi military spokesman Yahya Sarea said in a statement, according to The New York Times.“Yemeni armed forces will not hesitate to take more military measures and carry out more qualitative operations against all hostile targets in defense of beloved Yemen,” Sarea added.The incident marks the second time a US MQ-9 Reaper drone was downed by the Houthis over Yemen since November.The Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, also said on Monday that they struck a British-owned cargo ship in the Gulf of Aden, which was confirmed by US Central Command.CENTCOM said two Houthi missiles were fired “toward MV Rubymar, a Belize-flagged, UK-owned bulk carrier. One of the missiles struck the vessel, causing damage.”The Houthis later said they sank the British ship, and CENTCOM said the crew was evacuated from the Rubymar. The Houthis also claimed they targeted two American ships, but that has not yet been confirmed by the US.The US has been bombing Houthi-controlled Yemen, where most of the country’s population lives, on a near-daily basis. The continued Houthi attacks demonstrate that the US strikes are not doing significant damage to Houthi capabilities and have only escalated the situation.The Houthis have been clear that the only way their o perations in the Red Sea will cease is if the US-backed Israeli onslaught in Gaza comes to an end.
US Confirms the Houthis Struck Two US-Owned Cargo Ships - The US military on Tuesday said that Yemen’s Houthis struck two US cargo ships a day earlier, confirming a statement made by the Yemeni group on the attacks.US Central Command said the Houthis fired two missiles at the Sea Champion, a Greek-flagged, US-owned grain carrier, causing minor damage. The command said the ship could continue to its destination of Aden, Yemen.The Houthis also fired a drone at the Navis Fortuna, a Marshall Islands-flagged, US-owned bulk carrier. The attack also caused minor damage, and the command said the vessel was able to continue its voyage to Italy. CENTCOM also claimed that it struck a surface-to-air missile launcher in Yemen and a drone that was preparing to launch. The US has been bombing Yemen almost every day, but the strikes have done nothing to deter the Houthis. From Monday night into early Tuesday morning, CENTCOM said that US and allied warships downed ten Houthi drones. “Between 8 pm on Feb. 19 and 12:30 am on Feb. 20, US and coalition aircraft and warships shot down 10 OWA UAVs [one-way attack unmanned aerial vehicles] in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden,” the command said. Houthi military spokesman Yahya Sarea said Yemeni forces launched drones at US warships, likely referring to the incident reported by CENTOM. Sarea said the operations come “in support of the Palestinian people, who are still facing the Israeli aggression and siege, and in response to the US and British aggression on our country.” The Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, have made clear they will only stop their attacks on shipping once the Israeli onslaught in Gaza comes to an end. The US bombing campaign has only escalated the situation as the Houthis were not targeting American or British shipping before the US and UK launched the first round of strikes on Yemen on January 12.The US backed a Saudi/UAE-led coalition against the Houthis in a brutal war that killed 377,000 people between 2015 and 2022. During that time, the Houthis only became a more formidable fighting force and developed missile and drone technology that gave them the ability to hit Saudi oil infrastructure. A ceasefire between the Saudis and Houthis has held relatively well since April 2022, but new US sanctions are now blocking the implementation of a peace deal.
US Drone Strike in Somalia May Have Killed Two Cuban Doctors - Al-Shabaab has said a February 15 US drone strike in southern Somalia that targeted the group killed two Cuban doctors who were being held hostage, an allegation Cuba is trying to confirm.US Africa Command did not announce the strike but released a statement after the allegations about the two Cubans surfaced, saying it was assessing the strike. “The command will continue to assess the results of this operation and will provide additional information as available,” said AFRICOM spokeswoman Lennea Montandon.The doctors, Dr. Landy Rodriguez Hernandez and Dr. Assel Herrera Correa, were kidnapped by al-Shabaab in Kenya back in 2019. Cuba’s Minister of Public Health José Ángel Portal Miranda said the Cuban government is in contact with their families and is looking to verify the claim.The US frequently launches drone strikes against al-Shabaab in Somalia, but the war gets very little media coverage, and US operations are shrouded in secrecy. AFRICOM is also known for undercounting civilian casualties.Earlier in the month, AFRICOM reported a drone strike that occurred on February 9 that it claims killed two al-Shabaab fighters. The command said the strike was launched in support of the US-backed Mogadishu-based government, which has been fighting a ground campaign against al-Shabaab.The US is stepping up military aid for the Somali government and recently signed a deal to build five new military bases for the Danab Brigade, a special unit of the Somali army that’s armed and trained by the US. According to Task & Purpose, the project will cost over $100 million.
Graham’s U-turns have Senate colleagues fed up: ‘Annoying,’ ‘tiresome’ -Republican and Democratic senators who have worked for years with Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) are fuming over his decision to oppose a $95 billion defense and foreign aid package. Architects of the bill saw Graham’s support as crucial to mustering a majority of Republican senators to vote for it and apply as much pressure as possible on Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) to bring it up on the House floor. With Graham voting no, the bill fell short of that goal even with 22 GOP votes in favor, and now it is considered unlikely to pass the House. Senators who thought Graham was on their side feel like he pulled the rug out from under them, especially after last year, when he railed on the Senate floor about a budget deal including “not a penny” for the war in Ukraine. Some saw Graham as making a blatant effort to curry favor with former President Trump, who lobbied senators last week to oppose the package to deny President Biden a political win. One Democratic senator who was involved in strategizing for the bill said Graham “was supposed to be the guy” who would work to double Republican support for the bill. The senator explained “the way this was supposed to work was they were going to have” 60 votes for the bill, including 10 Republicans, and “he was supposed to bring the second 10” GOP votes, “and then in the last week he became part of the 10 that you couldn’t even count” as possible yes votes. “He got sucked into the Trump orbit, and he is so zealously about his own self-preservation in South Carolina that he literally would push his mother in front of a train to get to where he needs to be,” the senator added. “I hate to say it because I actually like him.”’ A Winthrop University Poll published in October showed only 30 percent of South Carolina voters approved of Graham’s performance, a rating only 1 percentage point higher than Biden had in the state. Trump took a shot at his Senate ally in February 2022 by calling him a “RINO” because of differences on whether convicted Jan. 6 protesters deserve presidential pardons. Graham’s votes against the defense bill exasperated colleagues, given that Graham led a charge on the Senate floor in June to delay action on a deal to raise the debt limit and set caps on defense and nondefense spending because it didn’t include any money for Ukraine. “Not a penny in this bill to help Ukraine defeat [Russian President Vladimir Putin],” Graham thundered on the Senate floor. “We need to send a clear message to Putin that when it comes to your invasion of Ukraine, we’re going to support your loss. If we don’t do that, then we’re going to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory.” Graham raised such hell that he secured a commitment from Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) that they would not let the spending caps deal hold up an emergency defense spending supplemental bill to fund Ukraine. “To the brave men and women in Ukraine standing up against Russian aggression and in defense of their homeland, help is on the way,” Graham declared on the Senate floor after securing the pledge. The bill Graham opposed last week included $60 billion for Ukraine, including $19.85 billion to replenish U.S. military weapons provided from the Pentagon’s inventory and $13.8 billion to enable Ukraine to purchase weapons and munitions from U.S. industry. It also provided $4.8 billion for the Indo-Pacific region to deter Chinese aggression toward Taiwan.
Bipartisan lawmakers urge colleagues to back bill combining Ukraine aid, border security - A bipartisan group of lawmakers is urging their colleagues to back a modified version of a foreign aid and border security package it unveiled last week. In a “Dear Colleague” letter sent Sunday and obtained by The Hill, Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) and Jared Golden (D-Maine) underscored the urgency of delivering aid to Ukraine as it works to fend off Russian troops. “In the two years since Russia invaded Ukraine in the most brazen campaign of territorial aggression in Europe since World War II, America’s support for Ukraine’s young democracy has been a bipartisan consensus in Congress,” Fitzpatrick and Golden wrote in a letter to the full House. “But as we write, Ukraine’s position is imperiled. Its freedom fighters are running out of ammunition and withdrawing from the East, paving the way for Russia’s further advance. This is a direct result of Congress’ gridlock.” They continued: “We cannot turn our backs on the Ukrainian people as they fight and die by the tens of thousands to preserve their democracy and sovereignty. They have proven that when equipped with American arms and ammunition, they can win this struggle. We know that without them, they may fail.” The call for action comes a week after the Senate passed a foreign aid bill that Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has said he would not take up in the House. The $95 billion Senate bill contained money for Ukraine, Israel and other foreign policy priorities but did not include the negotiated bipartisan border agreement that had provisions to increase border security and tighten asylum laws. Republicans had demanded border policy reforms as a condition for Ukraine aid, but conservatives in both chambers shot down a previous version of the Senate bill that contained a border component. Centrist lawmakers are hoping their new proposal can garner more support. Their legislation, called the Defending Borders, Defending Democracies Act, would allocate $66.32 billion to the Defense Department to support embattled nations, including roughly $47 billion for Ukraine, $10 billion for Israel, $5 billion for the Indo-Pacific and $2 billion to support U.S. Central Command operations. It also has border provisions, including reinstating the “Remain in Mexico” policy for one year, and would strip the package of any humanitarian aid for Gaza, Ukraine and other global hot spots. The bill is unlikely to garner sufficient support. Democrats are already throwing cold water on it, instead calling on Johnson to take up the Senate bill. And many Republicans have said they would only support a bill that includes all of the demands in their H.R. 2 border bill, which passed without a single Democratic vote.
Lockheed Martin to Increase Production of HIMARS Rocket Launchers By 60% - Lockheed Martin will increase its production of High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) by over 60% by the end of the year, as the rocket launcher has been in high demand since the US started sending it to Ukraine.The US provided its first HIMARS to Ukraine in June 2022, which marked a significant escalation of US support for the proxy war. HIMARS are mounted on trucks, making them easy to move, and fire GPS-guided munitions.According to The Defense Post, the US has delivered 39 HIMARS to Ukraine, and several European countries, including Estonia, Latvia, and Poland, have placed orders for the advanced artillery system.Lockheed Martin produced 60 HIMARS launchers in 2023, which marked a 25% increase from 2022. This year, the weapons maker aims to produce 96. The US Army is looking for a total of 500 HIMARS by 2028, which would require producing 100 each year.The increase in HIMARS production is just one example of how the proxy war in Ukraine has been a total boon for US arms makers. Lockheed Martin is also looking to increase the production of Javelin anti-tank missiles, which are made jointly with Raytheon, the former employer of Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. The war in Ukraine revived Raytheon’s Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, which were out of production for 20 years. To restart production, Raytheon had to call in retired engineers.
Biden Calls Putin a 'Crazy SOB' - President Biden called Russian President Vladimir Putin a ‘crazy SOB’ during a campaign fundraiser event on Wednesday, drawing a rebuke from the Kremlin.Biden made the jab at the Russian leader when discussing climate change, claiming it was a bigger threat than nuclear war.“We have a crazy SOB, that guy Putin and others and we always have to be worried about a nuclear conflict,” Biden said. “But the existential threat to humanity is climate.”Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded to Biden’s comments, saying it brought shame to the US, and said it was “Hollywood cowboy behavior” aimed at a domestic audience.“Such boorish statements from the mouth of a US leader are hardly capable of hurting the head of another country in any way, much less President Putin. But it is a great shame for the country itself,” Peskov said, according to the Russian news agency TASS.Putin said the insult was likely a response to the Russian leader recently saying Biden was preferable to Trump from Russia’s perspective since Biden is more predictable. “We understand what is going on there in terms of the domestic policy and it’s a completely appropriate reaction, which means that I was right,” Putin said.Biden has abandoned diplomacy with Putin and hasn’t spoken with the Russian leader since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, almost two years ago. The US has cut off most high-level diplomatic contacts with Russia and continues to reject the idea of negotiations to end the Ukraine war.
Tucker Carlson: ‘I’ve been accused of being pro-Putin, and I’m not’ Conservative commentator Tucker Carlson brushed away assertions that he is sympathetic to Russian President Vladimir Putin following his recent trip to interview the leader in Moscow.When discussing whether Putin’s goal in agreeing to sit with him for the interview “was to win a Western audience to his perspective,” Carlson said their interaction “didn’t make me more pro-Putin. Not that I was.”“And by the way I should just say at the outset, I’ve been accused of being pro-Putin, and I’m not,” he argued Tuesday during an appearance on Glenn Beck’s BlazeTV program. “And if I was, that’s OK, too. I’m an adult man, an American citizen, I can like or dislike anyone I want. I can have any opinion I want.”During the more than two-hour conversation Carlson published with Putin last week, the Russian president spread propaganda about his war effort in Ukraine, attacked the United States and other Western nations and painted himself as a righteous world leader.The pundit additionally published video clips of him and his team shopping in Russian grocery stores, using public transportation and praising the country’s infrastructure and economy.Days after his interview with Putin published, Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny died in a penal colony after being detained by the Kremlin. President Biden has said Putin is to blamefor Navalny’s death.Carlson, in a statement to the New York Times after Navalny’s death was announced, said “no decent person would defend,” what Putin had done.The former Fox News host, and favorite pundit of former President Trump, has taken widespread criticism from mainstream media outlets and some Republicans for his trip to Russia.The host was ousted from Fox last spring and has since started a new show on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, and launched an upstart media company of his own.
Report: North Korean missile fired by Russia against Ukraine contained US and European components -- A North Korean ballistic missile fired last month by the Russian military in Ukraine contained hundreds of components that trace back to companies in the US and Europe, according to a new report. The findings mark the first public identification of North Korea’s reliance on foreign technology for its missile program and underscore the persistent problem facing the Biden administration as it tries to keep cheap, Western-made microelectronics intended for civilian use from winding up in weapons used by North Korea, Iran and Russia.The UK-based investigative organization Conflict Armament Research, or CAR, directly examined 290 components from remnants of a North Korean ballistic missile recovered in January from Kharkiv, Ukraine, and found that 75% of the components were designed and sold by companies incorporated in the United States, according to the report shared first with CNN.A further 16% of the components found in the missile were linked to companies incorporated in Europe, the researchers found, and 9% to companies incorporated in Asia. These components primarily comprised the missile’s navigation system and could be traced to 26 companies headquartered in the US, China, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, Singapore, Switzerland and Taiwan, the report says.Last year, as CNN previously reported, CAR determined that 82% of components inside Iranian-made attack drones fired by Russia inside Ukraine were made by US companies.Along with extensive sanctions and export controls aimed at curbing access to Western-made technology, in late 2022 the Biden administration also set up an expansive task force to investigate how US and Western components, including American-made microelectronics, were ending up in Iranian-made drones Russia has been launching by the hundreds into Ukraine. It is not clear how much progress that task force has made — the National Security Council did not respond to multiple requests for comment.
Russia has broken the stalemate in Ukraine: Former US Defense secretary -The Russian military has broken the stalemate in the Ukraine war, Robert Gates, former CIA director and secretary of Defense, said Wednesday, following Moscow’s successful push to take the front-line city of Avdiivka. “It’s no longer a stalemate. The Russians have regained momentum,” Gates told The Washington Post’s David Ignatius in a streaming interview. “Everything I’m reading is that the Russians are on the offensive along the 600-mile front.” Russia has suffered staggering losses in the war, he noted, but with Ukraine now confronting artillery shortages due to flagging U.S. support, “the Russians are feeling that the tides have turned, and while there is much to be done, the initiative has passed to them,” Gates said. “They have more and more supplies coming in — I’ve read that for every artillery shell fired by Ukrainian forces, the Russians fire 10,” he added. Russian officials announced Monday that its forces finalized their capture of the key Ukrainian city of Avdiivka after taking full control of the city’s large coke plant. The costly operation marked Russia’s first major victory in months, and its most significant gain since taking nearby Bakhmut last spring. President Biden pinned the blame for Ukraine battlefield losses directly on House Republicans, who have refused to back additional aid to Kyiv without major immigration reform. Gates noted that European allies in NATO, “who we so often criticize,” have stepped up their support to Ukraine, but lack the ability to immediately send weapons. Production timelines will see NATO support reach the battlefield in 2025, he estimated. Right now, “the only real military lifeline comes from the United States. And as we all know, that is, shall we say, on pause right now,” he said. Aid to Ukraine still lingers in the House, where Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is caught between moderates who support Ukraine and far-right members who oppose it without major concessions from Democrats on the border. Gates called out Congress specifically for being too slow on approving key battlefield capabilities throughout the war, such as missile systems that have allowed strikes against Russian-occupied Crimea, which he called a “no-brainer.”“Congress will debate for a year or more whether to send the Ukrainians tanks, and after a year, they’ll send tanks,” he said. These weapons could have arrived “a year and a half” earlier, and their delay has restrained Ukraine’s abilities, he said.
Vance: Trump issued ‘wake-up call’ to Europe with NATO remarks -- Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) on Sunday suggested former President Trump’s recent remarks that he’d encourage Russia to attack NATO allies who don’t carry their financial weight was a “wake-up call” to Europe and its security spending. Vance, speaking at the Munich Security Conference on Sunday, argued Europe does not do enough to ensure its own defense. “The final point that I’ll make just to respond here, because I know people have heard what Trump said, and you know, they’ve criticized it, and they’ve said, well, ‘Trump is going to abandon Europe,’” Vance said during his Sunday remarks. “I don’t think that’s true at all. I think Trump is actually issuing a wake-up call to say that Europe has to take a bigger role in its own security. Germany just this year will spend more than 2 percent of GDP. That, of course, is something that we had to really push for in the United States, and it just now has finally cleared that threshold.” Trump’s recent comments about NATO have split members of his own party and stoked fears about what a second term in the White House could mean for the transatlantic security alliance. During a campaign rally on Feb. 11, Trump recalled a story about when a foreign leader questioned him about his threat not to defend members who do not hit the alliance’s defense spending targets. “You didn’t pay?” Trump said he responded. “You’re delinquent. No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You gotta pay. You gotta pay your bills.” During his presidency, Trump repeatedly pressed member nations to commit 2 percent of their gross domestic product (GDP) to defense spending and threatened on various occasions to withdraw from the alliance. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said at least half of the 31-member alliance is expected to meet that figure in 2024, which is up from seven members in 2022. Vance on Sunday argued America does not want to pull out of NATO or abandon Europe, but he did suggest the U.S. should shift its focus to East Asia and called on European allies to “step up.” “The United States has to focus more on East Asia. That is going to be the future of American foreign policy for the next 40 years, and Europe has to wake up to that fact,” he said. “I do not think that [Russian President Vladimir Putin] is an existential threat to Europe, and to the extent that he is, again, that suggests that Europe has to take a more aggressive role in its own security.” Vance clarified that he does not believe Putin is a “kind or friendly person” but suggested the U.S. should be more open to some degree of diplomacy with the Russian leader. “The fact that he’s a bad guy does not mean we can’t engage in basic diplomacy and prioritizing America’s interests,” he said. Vance, a former Trump critic turned staunch ally, has expressed repeated opposition to further aid for Ukraine in its fight against Russia. The Ohio Republican has said he does not believe Ukraine will ever be able to prevail over Russia and argued the U.S. needs to accept Ukraine will likely need to “cede some territory” to stop its fighting with Russia.
US Support For NATO Grows After Donald Trump's Threats -- Americans are increasingly throwing their support behind NATO, a new poll has revealed. This month, 64 percent of voters who were quizzed on the issue said they supported NATO; a jump of 2 percentage points since the same question was posed back in November. The poll, commissioned by Newsweek and conducted by pollsters Redfield & Wilton Strategies, comes after presidential hopeful Donald Trump criticized the alliance and blasted other member states by accusing them of not pulling their weight.NATO, which stands for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, was set up in 1949 and its "purpose is to guarantee the freedom and security of its members through political and military means," the organization says on its website. There are currently 31 member countries, including the U.S., Canada, the U.K., and other European countries, including France, Germany, and Italy.The latest poll suggests that support for NATO has grown slightly as much of the world grapples with politically and militarily troubling times. Current global conflicts include the war between Israel and Hamas, the war between Russia and Ukraine, terrorist attacks on western ships from Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen, and Chinese threats against Taiwan and U.S. Navy ships.A new poll asking Americans their views on the organization showed that a clear majority are in favour of belonging to the alliance.When voters were asked on February 10 whether they supported or opposed the U.S. being a member of NATO, a total of 64 percent either supported or strongly supported belonging to the alliance. That is a slight jump from 62 percent, who were supportive when the same question was asked on November 4 last year.In contrast, just 7 percent opposed or strongly opposed the U.S.'s membership this month; a fall from 10 percent who were opposed back in November. The remaining respondents did not know what their opinion was, or said they neither supported or opposed the membership.The U.S. membership of NATO has been increasingly under the spotlight recently as the organization's authority has been tested as a result of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine almost two years ago. Neither Russia nor Ukraine are NATO members, but war has made neighboring European countries and NATO members jumpy as Poland and others fear Russian president Vladimir Putin may target them next. NATO nations have also been concerned recently at the threat of Russian deployment of nuclear weapons in space.And presidential hopeful Donald Trump—who is currently campaigning for a second term in the White House—sparked controversy with his recent comments about NATO.The current Republican frontrunner drew fierce condemnation from the White House, the media, and prominent U.S. figures, after threatening to withdraw American support from countries who did not pay their NATO dues.He went as far as saying that he would "encourage" countries like Russia to "do whatever the hell they want" to member states of the military alliance, despite them being U.S. allies. Biden described his comments as "un-American" and suggested Trump had effectively "bowed down to a Russian dictator." But Trump insisted other NATO countries needed to "pay their bills" and "should equalize with the U.S."
Trump’s NATO threats expose limits of Congress’s power -Former President Trump’s menacing rhetoric toward NATO is shining a light on what little power Congress has in protecting America’s commitments to the alliance. NATO’s supporters say despite strong congressional backing for the alliance, House and Senate lawmakers have little to no power to prevent the president, as commander in chief, from making decisions about the U.S. military, in Europe or elsewhere. “I’ve gotten presidents out of a lot of treaties,” John Bolton, who served as Trump’s national security adviser between 2018 and 2019, told The Hill. “Efforts to restrict the president’s direction of forces, saying you can’t use funds to withdraw troops from Europe or something like that, flows directly in the face of the Commander-in-chief Clause of the Constitution, that is an invitation to litigation,” he added. “If somebody like Trump wants to get out, it’s not going to slow him down. It’s better to be making the case to the American people that we should stay in NATO than to try and put up guardrails.” That reality is unlikely to change despite recently passed legislation requiring a two-thirds approval from the Senate before any withdrawal from NATO, experts say. And short of that, there are no guardrails that would stop a president from scaling down U.S. troops in the region, holding back from supporting NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense pact, or taking other actions to limit America’s participation in the alliance. Trump, powering his way toward the Republican presidential nomination, has sparked international alarm with comments this month that he would encourage Russia to attack NATO-member states who have not met their defense spending commitments, and he has long threatened to exit the alliance. It’s caused alarm among Republicans who are committed to U.S. military power abroad, but who see little hope for Congress to check the president’s power at home. Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said he hoped officials around Trump would help maintain a somewhat consistent foreign policy in a second term. “We go back to our playbook in the prior administration,” he said in a discussion with reporters hosted by The Christian Science Monitor last week. McCaul pointed to former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and national security adviser Robert O’Brien as key in reining in some of Trump’s most dangerous impulses. “They would bring people like myself in, or [Sen.] Lindsey Graham [(R-S.C.)], and it’s important to have his ear, to make sure he doesn’t get off the reservation.” Sens. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, and James Lankford (R-Okla.), a member of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, have both rejected Trump’s threats to NATO but punted on the question if Congress should have more power to protect the alliance. “We’re not at that point yet. I do support NATO,” Ernst told The Hill. “I think it plays a very important function and we can see why. So let’s just stay the course.” Lankford said Congress should not have to be in the position Trump is threatening. “A president of the United States should actually want to stick with our alliances, so that shouldn’t be a necessary thing,” he said. Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said that while Congress could “look constantly” for ways to protect America’s leading role in NATO, he remained concerned about the various ways another Trump administration could weaken the alliance. Reed raised concern that Trump could hold back from appointing an American as the supreme allied commander in Europe, the head of NATO’s military forces, in favor of a European general to convey Europe taking more control.
US Congressional Delegation Led by House's Top China Hawk Visits Taiwan - A congressional delegation led by Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI), the chair of the House’s China committee, arrived in Taiwan on Thursday to show bipartisan support for Lai Ching-te, Taiwan’s vice president, who won elections in January and will be sworn in as president in May.After arriving in Taiwan, Gallagher took a shot at China in a statement released by the House’s China committee, formally known as the Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party.“Time and again Taiwan has shown the world how to stand up to the CCP’s bullying and not only survive, but thrive,” Gallagher said. “We are thrilled to be in Taipei to show our support for our friends in Taiwan, President-Elect Lai and the newly elected Legislative Yuan. The United States stands with Taiwan.”Gallagher and his delegation will be in Taiwan from February 22-24. They met with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen on Thursday, who thanked the US lawmakers for issuing statements congratulating Lai on his victory in January. Both Tsai and Lai are members of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which is independence-leaning and wants stronger ties with the West.China is strongly opposed to any contacts between US and Taiwanese officials, which the Chinese Foreign Ministry reaffirmed when asked about Gallagher’s visit. “Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory. China opposes any form of official interaction between the US and Taiwan authorities and rejects US interference in Taiwan affairs in whatever form or under whatever pretext,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning.
Texas governor building military base near border to deter migrants -- Texas will open a military base capable of housing up to 2,300 soldiers, in a bid to slow illegal migrants streaming across the Mexican border. To be located in the city of Eagle Pass near the U.S.-Mexico border, the facility will spread over 80 acres along the Rio Grande River, according to Texas Governor Greg Abbott, outlining the project at a press conference. Since President Joe Biden took office in 2021, several million illegal immigrants have entered Texas. In a bid to slow the immigrants, Texas has built a wall along the border with empty shipping containers, as well as using barbed wire. Texas has repeatedly clashed with the Biden administration, since the federal government has claimed immigration enforcement is within its exclusive jurisdiction. "Because of the magnitude of what we're doing, because of the need to sustain and actually expand our efforts ... it's essential that we build this base camp," Abbott told reporters. The camp will allow Texas to "amass a large army in a very strategic area" and "increase the speed and flexibility of the Texas National Guard to be able to respond to crossings," Abbott added. Of note, a new law goes into effect on March 5 that allows Texas to arrest and deport migrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border illegally. However, the US government has turned to the courts to prevent the Texas law from being enforced.
Federal agencies scramble to finish Biden’s rules — and protect his legacy from Trump - President Joe Biden’s allies are getting antsy about his administration’s pileup of unfinished environmental rules — especially with the threat that a second Trump presidency could undo them all. Biden’s agencies are facing a deadline this spring to finish some of their most important regulations to ensure that a Republican Congress and White House can’t erase them next year, including a crackdown on power plants’ climate pollution, protections for endangered species and a bid to protect federal employees from politically motivated firings. Complicating matters is the fact that the deadline won’t be known until months after rules are completed. Advocates of tougher environmental regulations watched as then-President Donald Trump used a previously seldom-invoked statute to unwind more than a dozen of the Obama administration’s rules in the opening months of 2017. They don’t want that to happen again. The scramble to finish the regulations is crucial to determining how much of Biden’s ambitious legacy may survive past the November election, as the two likely nominees promote sharply contrasting views on climate change, green energy and the power of federal agencies. The Biden administration has promised action on a lot of fronts, and how soon it rolls those rules out could determine how easy they are for a future administration to unravel. Policy insiders and Biden administration allies are urging agencies’ rule writers to keep their eye on the clock. “I am acutely aware of the calendar, and I’m checking on status regularly,” said Paul Billings, the national senior vice president for public policy at the American Lung Association. “In a month, my hair may be on fire.” Lisa Frank, who leads the Washington legislative office at the advocacy group Environment America, said she’s feeling “anxious excitement” over the raft of expected rules. “The Biden administration is poised to deliver some of the biggest gains on clean air, clean water and safeguarding nature that we’ve seen in years,” Frank said. That’s on top of “the most significant progress by a very long shot” in addressing climate change. “Obviously, there’s still a lot of work to do to make all that progress,” she said. James Goodwin, a senior policy analyst at the liberal-leaning Center for Progressive Reform, said there is no reason agencies cannot get their rules done at this point in Biden’s term. “They know this stuff cold,” Goodwin said. “There are no impediments. It’s pedal to the metal time.”
Biden Administration Is Said to Slow Early Stage of Shift to Electric Cars - In a concession to automakers and labor unions, the Biden administration intends to relax elements of one of its most ambitious strategies to combat climate change, limits on tailpipe emissions that are designed to get Americans to switch from gas-powered cars to electric vehicles, according to three people familiar with the plan.Instead of essentially requiring automakers to rapidly ramp up sales of electric vehicles over the next few years, the administration would give car manufacturers more time, with a sharp increase in sales not required until after 2030, these people said. They asked to remain anonymous because the regulation has not been finalized. The administration plans to publish the final rule by early spring.The change comes as President Biden faces intense crosswinds as he runs for re-election while trying to confront climate change. He is aiming to cut carbon dioxide emissions from gasoline-powered vehicles, which make up the largest single source of greenhouse gases emitted by the United States.At the same time, Mr. Biden needs cooperation from the auto industry and political support from the unionized auto workers who backed him in 2020 but now worry that an abrupt transition to electric vehicles would cost jobs. Meanwhile, consumer demand has not been what automakers hoped, with potential buyers put off by sticker prices and the relative scarcity of charging stations.Sensing an opening, former President Donald J. Trump, the Republican front-runner, has seized on electric cars, falsely warning the public that they “don’t work” and telling autoworkers that Mr. Biden’s policies are “lunacy” that he would extinguish on “the first day” of his return to the White House.
Biden cancels student debt for 150K borrowers -The Biden administration announced Wednesday it is forgiving a total of $1.2 billion in student debt for roughly 153,000 borrowers.The relief comes through the Saving on a Valuable Education (SAVE) repayment plan, which made changes to income-driven repayment plans in the wake of a Supreme Court decision overturning President Biden’s more ambitious student loan debt cancellation plan.The first batch of loan forgiveness through the SAVE plan was planned for July, but the Education Department identified eligible borrowers sooner.“This plan reflects our unapologetic commitment to deliver as much relief as possible to as many borrowers as possible, as quickly as possible,” Education Secretary Miguel Cardona said on a Tuesday call with reporters. “We’re providing real, immediate breathing room from an unacceptable reality where student loan payments compete with basic needs.”Under the SAVE plan, those who borrowed less than $12,000 can have their debt forgiven after 10 years of payments. The Education Department will reach out next week directly to borrowers who are eligible for relief but are not currently enrolled in the SAVE plan. “We have more work to do to cancel even more student debt, but today is a good day and we applaud the administration for continuing to work with us to help working families and particularly minority communities free themselves from the burden of this crushing debt,” Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.), who has urged Biden to be aggressive in forgiving student debt, said in a statement.The White House has in recent months been rolling out additional announcements on student debt relief as Biden seeks to deliver on his problem to wipe out what millions of Americans owe in loans.The Supreme Court last June struck down Biden’s original proposal to cancel $10,000 of student loans for low- and middle-income borrowers. The administration announced last week it will seek to give student debt forgiveness to those experiencing “hardship.”The hardship category is one of five in Biden’s new student debt relief plan that is going through the negotiated rulemaking process, where relevant stakeholders come together to discuss and revise the president’s proposals before the final plan is determined.
US Officials Concede No Active Surveillance On Long-Term Effects Of COVID-19 Vaccines In a Feb. 15 hearing by the Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic, U.S. health officials side-stepped a question when asked whether the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is actively conducting extended safety surveillance on those who received early COVID-19 vaccines. Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.) asked Dr. Peter Marks, director of the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, whether the FDA is conducting active surveillance and if there are any specific health markers they’re studying that may signal trends requiring further inquiry. “Every time we go through and do the safety surveillance, we start back, and it goes back to 2020. In some cases where we’re looking for certain things, we might use a different window, but indeed, we have to look from the beginning of the period of surveillance. I can turn it over to Dr. Jernigan because he can speak for CDC [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] in that regard,” Dr. Marks said. “So with regard to myocarditis, we certainly have been monitoring the issue with various different data systems. I think the most recent data really demonstrates that you’re about eight times less likely to get myocarditis if you’re vaccinated compared to those that are unvaccinated,” Dr. Daniel Jernigan, director of the National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases at the CDC responded. Rep. Malliotakis told Jernigan she wanted to know about “everything,” not just myocarditis. Dr. Jerrigan asked her to repeat the question, and she asked again whether the FDA was conducting extended safety surveillance on early recipients of COVID-19 vaccines. “Most of the reports that we get of adverse events are in the few weeks following the vaccination,” Jernigan said. In terms of monitoring these over time, Jernigan said the agency has “vaccine effectiveness” systems in place at the CDC. Neither Jernigan nor Marks referenced any active surveillance initiatives being undertaken by their agencies to monitor people who received the original COVID-19 vaccines for long-term health effects. “There is no system in place for long-term vaccine safety surveillance in this country,”
Supreme Court turns away Greene, Massie, Norman appeal over mask rule violations -- The Supreme Court on Tuesday refused to revive a lawsuit from three House Republicans after their pay was docked for not complying with a pandemic-era mask requirement on the chamber floor. In a brief order without any noted dissents, the court let stand a lower ruling that tossed the constitutional challenge filed by Reps. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and Ralph Norman (R-S.C.). The three conservative lawmakers were fined $500 in May 2021 after flouting the House floor mask mandate that was put in place amid the COVID-19 pandemic, kicking off a years-long attempt by the trio of lawmakers to get the penalties lifted. House rules fined lawmakers $500 for their first infraction with the mask mandate and $2,500 for subsequent breaches to be withdrawn from their yearly pay. Greene racked up more than $100,000 in fines, according to The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, which the Georgia Republican referenced in a statement on Tuesday. “Even though I was fined over $100,000 by Pelosi, I wouldn’t change a thing,” she said.The lawmakers were protesting the House floor mask mandate, highlighting the fact the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) had recently said individuals who are fully vaccinated did not need to wear masks in most public settings. At the time, Norman said he had been vaccinated, Greene would not reveal her status, and Massie said he would not get the vaccine because he had COVID-19 antibodies from a previous bout with the illness. The Republicans appealed the sanctions later that year, but the House Ethics Committeeupheld them in July 2021. A federal judge in D.C. tossed the trio’s lawsuit in 2022, arguing that their case did not have any basis because then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and others enforcing the mask mandate could not be the target of legal action for choices they made in their jobs as government officials. In June, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit affirmed the ruling. The Supreme Court is now the latest body to shoot down their lawsuit, two years after the House lifted the mask mandate in February 2022.The trio of lawmakers contended their deductions violated the 27th Amendment, which prohibits salary adjustments for members of Congress from taking effect until after the next election. It was ratified in 1992 as the most recent addition to the Constitution. “While the Twenty-Seventh Amendment is commonly, but wrongly, thought of today as merely a limitation on Congress’ ability to vote itself a pay raise (as will be demonstrated below), that was merely one of its purposes,” the lawmakers’ attorneys wrote in court filings. The Supreme Court has never decided a case interpreting the amendment, and the Republican lawmakers insisted the time had come for the justices to do so.
Supreme Court will hear challenge to EPA's 'good neighbor' rule that limits pollution -- The U.S. Supreme Court will hear arguments Wednesday in an important environmental case that centers on the obligation to be a "good neighbor." Lawyers representing three states, companies and industry groups will ask the justices to block a federal rule that's intended to limit ozone air pollution. Experts said it's only the third time in more than 50 years that the court has scheduled arguments on an emergency application like this one. At the heart of the dispute is the part of the Clean Air Act known as the "good neighbor" provision. It's designed to help protect people from severe health problems they face because of pollution that floats downwind from neighboring states. "Air pollution doesn't respect state borders," said Harvard Law School professor Richard Lazarus. States like Wisconsin, New York and Connecticut can struggle to meet federal standards and reduce harmful levels of ozone because of emissions from coal plant smokestacks, cement kilns and natural gas pipelines that drift across their borders. "One of the primary reasons that Congress passed this law in 1970 was the one place you could not trust the states to do it on their own was when there was interstate air pollution," Lazarus said. Vickie Patton, general counsel at the Environmental Defense Fund, said these bedrock protections can save lives. "There are children, there are older adults, people who work outside in the summer and people who are afflicted by asthma who are at very, very serious risk, and this case is just about asking those upwind polluters to do their fair share," Patton said. Three of those upwind states — Ohio, Indiana and West Virginia — alongside companies including Kinder Morgan Inc. and U.S. Steel Corp. want the Supreme Court to freeze the good neighbor rule while they pursue an appeal with a lower court in the D.C. Circuit. Stephen Vladeck, a law professor at the University of Texas and author of a book putting these kinds of emergency actions by the Supreme Court into context, said the other two cases where the justices entertained arguments at this stage involved vaccine mandates during the coronavirus pandemic. The good neighbor case, on the other hand, doesn't present those same kinds of issues, he said. "If this is an emergency, what isn't?" Vladeck asked. "There are lots of federal polices that are going to have massive stakes and they're going to have massive stakeholders on both sides. It's not at all obvious why this case merits this kind of special treatment." Traditionally, the Supreme Court goes last — after a case has made its way through the lower courts and a variety of facts and arguments have been aired. "This case hasn't really gone very far at all," Vladeck said. "I mean, the only thing that's happened in the entire litigation to date is that the D.C. Circuit, the federal appeals court, refused to give the same thing that they're now asking the Supreme Court for, refused to basically pause the rule at the beginning of the litigation." Lawyers for the states and companies challenging the good neighbor rule declined to talk before the arguments. In court papers, they call the EPA rule a "disaster" and "a shell of itself." That's because the plan originally applied to 23 states. But lower courts have hit pause in about half of them for a bunch of different reasons, in separate litigation. These lawyers said states shouldn't have to shoulder the costs for what they say is an unlawful federal mandate, criticizing the EPA for taking a "top-down" approach to the rule. But environmental advocates say many of the obligations in the new rule won't kick in until 2026, giving big polluters a couple of years to prepare. The rule is already in force and protecting people in a number of states, they add. Lazarus, at Harvard Law School, said to win a pause at the Supreme Court, the states challenging the rule will have to meet what's typically a high bar by showing they're likely to win on the merits and they're suffering irreparable harm.
Supreme Court appears skeptical of EPA interstate air pollution rule - The Supreme Court heard arguments on the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) interstate air pollution rule Wednesday, with members of the court’s liberal minority expressing skepticism about the appropriateness of hearing the case but the conservative majority seeming amenable to blocking the rule.The “Good Neighbor” rule, which regulates downwind air pollution produced by upwind states, is the subject of a lawsuit by industry groups and the states of Indiana, Ohio and West Virginia. Justice Brett Kavanaugh appeared skeptical of the EPA’s rationale in arguing for the rule’s overall validity when lower courts have already blocked the rule in 12 of the 23 states covered. The agency, he said, was proposing to “just kind of pretend nothing happened, just go ahead” with the rule in the remaining states.The Clean Air Act allows states to develop their own interstate pollution plans but enables the EPA to step in with its own if it deems state plans inadequate. State plaintiffs have argued they were not given enough time to comply. Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson said it seemed “fairly extraordinary” for the plaintiffs to request emergency relief before having won or lost in the Circuit Court for the District of Columbia. Ohio Deputy Solicitor General Mathura Sridharan argued in response that the states were moving at “breakneck speed” to prevent what she said were imminent power shortages that would result from the rule.Jackson noted that the rule does not take effect until 2026, suggesting that was enough time to ask the lower court to expedite the request. Justice Sonia Sotomayor, too, suggested the litigants were “rush[ing] to us on an incomplete record.”“If all these lawsuits that the states are bringing are going to end up losing, the idea that you can be here and be demanding emergency relief just because states have kicked up a lot of dust seems not the right answer to me,” Justice Elena Kagan added.The court’s six conservative justices have been broadly receptive to curtailing the power of federal agencies, and in oral arguments in January appeared poised to strike down the so-called Chevron doctrine, which gives federal agencies broad latitude in interpreting federal law. In another decision, EPA v. West Virginia, the court ruled against the EPA’s Clean Power Plan regulating power plant output. Environmental groups expressed dismay at the prospect of the court blocking the Good Neighbor rule Wednesday.“Just in the last two years, the Supreme Court’s far-right majority has rolled back protections for our waterways and limited EPA’s tools to fight climate pollution,” Matthew Davis, League of Conservation Voters vice president of federal policy, said in a statement. “Our communities, our planet, and our democracy deserve better. The Supreme Court must get out of the way and allow the EPA’s Good Neighbor Rule to move forward.”
Alito renews criticism of Supreme Court’s same-sex marriage ruling in rejecting Missouri jury case - Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito renewed his criticism Tuesday of the high court’s landmark same-sex marriage ruling, addressing it in a five-page statement as part of an order explaining why the court declined to hear a case involving a Missouri lawsuit.The case in question, the Missouri Department of Corrections v. Jean Finney, involved a dispute where jurors were dismissed from the employment discrimination case after they voiced religious concerns about same-sex relationships.In his statement Tuesday, Alito said he agrees with the Supreme Court’s decision not to hear the Missouri lawsuit but said it “exemplifies the danger” that he anticipated in the 2015 Obergefell v. Hodges case.“Namely, that Americans who do not hide their adherence to traditional religious beliefs about homosexual conduct will be ‘labeled as bigots and treated as such’ by the government,” he wrote.The way Obergefell v. Hodges was written in 2015 “made it clear that the decision should not be used in that way,” Alito wrote.The high court in 2015 voted 5-4 in favor of allowing same-sex couples the right to marriage, with Alito dissenting. He was joined at the time by Chief Justice John Roberts and fellow conservative Justices Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas.In the matter of the case the court rejected to hear on Tuesday, Jean Finney was an employee at the Missouri Department of Corrections (DOC). She claimed that after starting a same-sex relationship with a co-worker’s former spouse, her job become intolerable because of that co-worker. She sued the Missouri DOC and said the department was at fault for the co-worker’s actions, The New York Times reported.
John Oliver offering Clarence Thomas $1M a year to resign from Supreme Court - Comedian and “Last Week Tonight” host John Oliver is urging Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas to resign, offering him $1 million per year to do so. Oliver railed against the conservative justice during the 11th season premiere of his weekly show Sunday, saying Thomas had made the lives of Americans “demonstrably worse” and promising him a brand new luxury recreational vehicle if he agrees to step down from the high court. “Lot on your plate right now. From stripping away women’s rights to hearing Jan. 6 cases, you definitely shouldn’t be hearing two potentially helping rollback decades of federal regulations,” he said. “So that’s the offer. $1 million a year, Clarence. And a brand new condo on wheels. And all you have to do in return is sign the contract and get the f‑‑‑ off the Supreme Court,” Oliver added. “Talk it over with your totally best friend in the whole world. Because the clock starts now. Thirty days, Clarence … Let’s do this!” The comedian’s bit was first highlighted by Mediaite.Thomas has come under scrutiny from media outlets and ethics watchdogs in recent months after reporting by ProPublica found he had failed to disclose luxury trips and other benefits he received from conservative billionaire Harlan Crow.“I think you’re thinking, what would my friend say if I take this offer? Will they judge me as they sit in their boardrooms and mega yachts and Hitler shrines? Will they still treat me to luxury vacations and sing songs about me off their phones?” Oliver said. “Well, that’s the beauty of friendship, Clarence. If they’re real friends, they’ll love you no matter what your job is. So I guess this might be the perfect way to find out who your real friends actually are. ”
George Santos Sues Jimmy Kimmel For $750K Over Late-Night Prank -- Former Republican lawmaker George Santos (NY) sued Jimmy Kimmel for $750,000 - alleging copyright infringement and fraud after the late-night television host allegedly tricked Santos into making videos that were later used to mock him on "Jimmy Kimmel Live," AP reports. If you don’t stand up for yourself you will always lose! That’s what I’m doing with this lawsuit. I’m standing my ground and fighting to uphold my legal rights. Jimmy boy thought he could use fraudulent means to violate my copyrights and now he’s going to face the consequences.… Santos had signed up for paid video speeches on Cameo, a website where (usually former) celebrities will record customized messages for a fee. Kimmel, ABC and the Walt Disney Company are named in the suit, which was filed in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York. The comedian (Kimmel) is accused of concealing his identity to obtain personalized Cameo videos for a segment titled "Will Santos Say It" which aired in December 2023. Kimmel used fake names and narratives to submit at least 14 requests for "capitalizing on and ridiculing" Santos' "gregarious personality," accrding to the lawsuit. Five of those videos aired, one of which features Santos congratulating the winner of a meat-eating contest for the "amazing and impressive" feat of consuming six pounds of ground beef in less than 30 minutes. "Frankly, Kimmel’s fake requests were funny, but what he did was clear violation of copyright law," Santos' attorney, Robert Fantone, told AP. Santos, meanwhile, faces a slew of criminal charges for allegedly defrauding campaign donors, lying to Congress about his wealth, and receiving unemployment benefits while employed.
Morning Report — House Republicans head for the exits as GOP eyes Senate takeover - As Senate Republicans look toward retaking the upper chamber, their House counterparts are racing for the exits.A growing number of high-profile House Republicans will be retiring at the end of this Congress, and many are voicing a common and unsettling theme driving their decision: the toxicity of life on Capitol Hill. The Hilll’s Mike Lillis and Mychael Schnell note that message marks a nuanced but notable contrast from cycles of the past, when a wave of retirements might reflect an exodus of aging veteran lawmakers, concerns that control of the House could flip, or both. Democrats are also exiting the lower chamber in spades; as of Feb. 14, 23 Democrats and 21 Republicans will not seek reelection in November. But the latest crop of departing Republicans has been remarkably open about their exasperation working in a Congress where internal party clashes have ground the task of legislating to a crawl while the most incendiary voices dominate the airwaves. Notably, this year’s list of retirees features a number of younger, powerful lawmakers — a handful of them with formidable committee gavels — who could easily wait out a few terms in the minority. Instead, they say, they’re at the end of their rope. “Electoral politics was never supposed to be a career and, trust me, Congress is no place to grow old,” said Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.), the chair of the House select committee on China. Gallagher was viewed as an up-and-comer in the Republican conference. The 39-year-old caught the eye of Senate Republican recruiters last year, who attempted to convince him to run against Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis) (The New York Times). He announced his plans to retire earlier this month.He’s not alone in that decision, and the number of retiring committee chairs is fueling anxiety among members in both parties that the typical “brain drain” that accompanies the inevitable round of biennial retirements will be more pronounced this year — and have a greater impact on how the lower chamber functions in the next Congress. SENATE REPUBLICANS, meanwhile, see their chances of regaining a majority in the upper chamber as sky-high — regardless of who wins the bid for the White House. It’s a remarkable shift from two years ago, when infighting between an out-of-power former President Trumpand the GOP establishment left the conference with midterm candidates who underperformed, boosting Democrats to a bigger majority in 2023 than they enjoyed the previous year.
Hunter Biden Says DOJ Misrepresented Sawdust As Cocaine To Make Him Look Bad - Attorneys for President Joe Biden’s son, Hunter Biden, have accused “reckless” federal prosecutors of tarnishing their client’s reputation by publicly releasing a photograph showing lines of sawdust that they misrepresented as cocaine. Mr. Biden’s attorneys, Abbe Lowell and Bartholomew Dalton, made the allegation that prosecutors were misrepresenting evidence in a Feb. 20 court filing in the U.S. District Court for the District of Delaware, where their client was indicted on three felony counts of making false statements to a gun dealer and possessing a firearm while using drugs.Mr. Biden has pleaded not guilty to all three charges, for which he could face up to 25 years in prison if convicted.In their latest filing, Mr. Biden’s attorneys accuse special counsel David Weiss of waging an “unnecessary fight about tangential issues” in pushing back on requests by Mr. Biden to provide him with all pertinent discovery materials that they say he needs to prepare his defense.“For all its bluster, there is nothing improper nor out of the ordinary for Mr. Biden to make the same request that virtually every defendant makes, asking that the prosecution give him all the information that he is due so that he can prepare for and receive a fair trial,” they wrote.Mr. Weiss said in a Feb. 13 filing that his office had already provided Mr. Biden with over 1.2 million pages of documents and that he has either failed to review them or has “misrepresented” what prosecutors have provided.Mr. Biden’s attorneys alleged in their latest filing that prosecutors have been “gun-shy” about confirming that they have met their discovery obligations.They added that Mr. Biden’s concerns that he may not be getting a fair trial have grown “as the defense has increasingly come to realize the scope of the prosecution’s ‘curious’ investigative techniques.”
Jordan brushes aside indictment of FBI informant in Biden impeachment inquiry House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) is brushing aside the indictment of the FBI informant at the center of the GOP’s allegations against President Biden, arguing the source’s arrest “doesn’t change the fundamental facts” of the Republican case against the president. The Justice Department indicted Alexander Smirnov last week on allegations he made up information involving the Bidens, including his claim that the then-vice president and his son, Hunter Biden, each accepted a $5 million bribe, an assertion central to the GOP’s impeachment inquiry against the president. Last year, Jordan said “the impeachable offense is — I think, the key thing is in Burisma.” But Wednesday, nearly a week after Smirnov’s arrest, Jordan downplayed the significance Smirnov’s claims play in the conference’s impeachment inquiry into Biden. “Well, I mean, it is what it is,” Jordan told reporters when asked about the indictment. “It doesn’t change the fundamental facts.” The Judiciary Committee chair went on to list a number of long-running GOP claims involving Hunter Biden and his involvement with Ukrainian energy company Burisma. “Those facts, they don’t change regardless of what this confidential human source is saying,” Jordan said, referring to Smirnov. House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) has delivered a similar message, arguing that the impeachment inquiry does not hinge on Smirnov’s claims, which were memorialized in an FD-1023 form. “To be clear, the impeachment inquiry is not reliant on the FBI’s FD-1023,” Comer said in a statement last week. Democrats, however, have pounced on Smirnov’s indictment in their campaign to cast doubt on the GOP’s impeachment inquiry. Last week, Rep. Jamie Raskin (Md.), the top Democrat on the Oversight and Accountability Committee, called on Republican leaders to end their probe in light of Smirnov’s arrest. On Wednesday, Raskin said the revelations involving Smirnov “destroy the entire case.” “Smirnov was the foundation of the whole thing. He was the one who came forward to say that Burisma had given Joe Biden $5 million, and that was just concocted out of thin air.” “And so it was that foundation that the whole house of cards has been built on, and the entire thing has collapsed,” he added. The controversy surrounding Smirnov depended on Tuesday after the Justice Department revealed in a filing that Smirnov said he received his information about Hunter Biden from Russian intelligence.“During his custodial interview on February 14, Smirnov admitted that officials associated with Russian intelligence were involved in passing a story about Businessperson 1,” the filing reads. Businessperson 1 is Hunter Biden.Raskin on Wednesday called that a “shattering revelation.”The comments from Jordan and Raskin came the same day James Biden, the president’s younger brother, appeared before the House Oversight Committee as part of the GOP’s impeachment inquiry into the president.Republicans have alleged that the president was involved in his family’s business dealings, prompting claims of corruption and influence peddling. On Wednesday, however, the younger Biden testified that his brother “never had any involvement or any direct or indirect financial interest” in his business ventures.
Fox News co-host ‘surprised’ by GOP’s ‘threshold for humiliation’ in Biden probe Fox News co-host Jessica Tarlov mocked House Republicans on Wednesday for their pursuit of impeachment charges against President Biden.“This is the path that they’ve chosen to take, and honestly I’m surprised that they have this high of a threshold for humiliation,” Tarlov said during an appearance on the network. “Every witness they have called has decimated their argument.”Tarlov’s comments come a week after an indictment of the FBI informant at the center of the GOP’s allegations against Biden. The Department of Justice (DOJ) alleged that the informant, Alexander Smirnov, made up information involving the Bidens, including his claim that the then-vice president and his son, Hunter Biden, each accepted a $5 million bribe.The DOJ alleged Smirnov’s claims regarding Hunter Biden came from Russian intelligence personnel.Members of the House GOP have made Hunter Biden’s business dealings central to their impeachment push, which the White House has dismissed as partisan and lacking merit.Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) on Wednesday told reporters on Capitol Hill that the Smirnov indictment “doesn’t change the fundamental facts” of his caucus’s case against the president.“It’s so embarrassing,” Tarlov, who serves as a liberal panelist on the popular table talk program “The Five,” said. “I think [Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.)] was spot on when he said this impeachment really ended yesterday, when we found out that we have a Russian asset that is foundational to this impeachment inquiry.”
Biden's Approval Drops To 38% On Mishandling Of Immigration, Middle East And Ukraine Crises Gallup - Americans’ approval of President Joe Biden’s job performance has edged down three percentage points to 38%, just one point shy of his all-time low and well below the 50% threshold that has typically led to reelection for incumbents. In addition, Biden registers subpar approval ratings for his handling of five key issues facing the U.S., including a new low of 28% for immigration and readings ranging from 30% to 40% for the situation in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas, foreign affairs, the economy and the situation in Ukraine. Biden’s approval rating has not risen above 44% since August 2021, and his 39.8% average rating for his third year in officewas the second worst among post-World War II presidents elected to their first term.Approval of Biden’s handling of the economy is up a modest four points among U.S. adults since November, while his ratings on the other issues have not significantly changed from the prior readings in November (and August for immigration). Positive U.S. economic news on several fronts continued during Gallup’s Feb. 1-20 field period, including low unemployment, subdued inflation and record stock market values.Democrats largely approve of Biden’s handling of the economy (75%), the situation in Ukraine (72%) and foreign affairs (69%). However, bare majorities of Democrats approve of the president’s handling of immigration (55%) and the Middle East situation (51%). Biden’s ratings among Democrats have dipped on the situations in the Middle East (-9 points) and Ukraine (-6 points) and on immigration (-7 points).
New York Democrat leaves Congressional Progressive Caucus after splitting with members over Israel --New York Congressman Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.) has left the Congressional Progressive Caucus (CPC) after splitting with members over their stance on the Israel-Hamas war. Torres, a staunch supporter of Israel, has left the CPC, a source familiar with the matter confirmed to The Hill on Tuesday. The New York congressman is not listed on the caucus’s website. Torres has abstained from calling for a cease-fire in the war, a policy some of the caucus’s members support. His departure is another shakeup in the caucus after Rep. Lois Frankel (D-Fla.) left the CPC in November, her office confirmed to The Hill. The Israel-Hamas conflict has caused some divisions in the Democratic Party. The war, now in its fourth month, has put some members of the Democratic Party at odds with President Bidenand other pro-Israel Congress members of the party. Some of the more progressive members of the party on Capitol Hill have been frustrated with the Biden administration’s stance on the war. Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), a Squad member and one of the vice chairs of the caucus, has been critical of Biden and his administration’s approach to the Israel-Hamas war. Tlaib, the only Palestinian-American in Congress, was censured in November by the lower chamber over her criticism of Israel. On Saturday, she urged Michigan residents to vote “uncommitted” in the upcoming Feb. 27 primary instead of supporting Biden. Some members of the Squad, who are also in the CPC, are facing primary challenges over their vocal criticism of the way Israel is waging war in Gaza following the Oct. 7 attack by the Palestinian militant group Hamas. Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), the caucus’s chair, has also been scrutinized for her comments about Israel. In July, she called Israel a “racist state,” but later apologized for her remarks.
Michigan progressives angry over Gaza urge voters to ditch Biden in primary -- Progressive groups and Arab American grassroots organizations in Michigan are taking their protests over President Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war to the ballot box ahead of the key battleground state’s primary later this month. A concerted effort is underway to sway Democrats away from voting for Biden on Feb. 27, with some groups urging their supporters to cast their ballot for “uncommitted.” One organized effort, dubbed Abandon Biden, launched in October. It encouraged voters to withhold their vote from Biden in swing state primaries across the U.S. over his actions on the war in the Middle East. The movement grew this week when Our Revolution launched an organized effort telling voters to not commit to Biden, or to former President Trump. The effort marks the deep anger felt by Arab Americans toward the White House since the start of the Israel-Hamas war, in which Biden has been steadfast in his support of Israel — albeit increasingly disagreeing with its prime minister over its stated goals in the war — and rejected calls for a long-term cease-fire. It could spell trouble for Biden, who can’t afford to lose any coalition of voters if he wants to win reelection in November. The frustration runs so deep that the Abandon Biden movement sees no way Biden can fix the situation and gain back its support, seeing a call for a cease-fire now being too little too late. “He’s got to do the right thing for the party and for … the country itself, and he should step down as soon as possible because he’s deeply toxic, and we will never ever support him. He can’t do anything for us to support him. No one can tolerate a policy of death that lasts this long; people have to be held to account,” said Hassan Abdel Salam, a member of the Abandon Biden National Coalition. The Abandon Biden movement is focused on withholding votes from Biden in primaries in battleground states including Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, and Florida to empower pro-Palestine Americans to protest via ballot box. The White House has tried to engage with Arab American groups, particularly those in Michigan, but has been met with canceled meetings, largely failing to change any minds. Officials traveled to Michigan to engage with leaders on the ground earlier this month but, when Biden was in Michigan himself, he didn’t meet with any leaders. He also didn’t visit Dearborn, the Detroit suburb where Arab Americans make up the majority of the population. A Michigan official, who asked to remain anonymous while talking about sensitive issues, said Biden’s visit was “too late” and that the “community was too angry. Nothing would have come from that discussion.” The Abandon Biden movement knows what’s at stake in November, when Biden is likely to face Trump, the GOP front-runner who has vowed to reinstate and expand his Muslim ban if elected. “We found the previous president distasteful,” Salam said. “The previous president prevented our family and our friends and our colleagues from entering the country. But Mr. Biden killed them.”
Trump tax cuts on the line in 2024 election --The 2017 Trump tax cuts are on the line in the election this year, with Republicans hoping a sweep of Congress and the White House will allow them to extend the former president’s signature law. Democrats opposed the law when Trump was in power but have supported extending certain cuts, such as the decreased tax rates for people making less than $400,000 a year. Democrats do not want a blanket extension, which would cost nearly $4 trillion over the next decade. President Biden has supported bumping the corporate tax rate up to 28 percent from Trump’s level of 21 percent. He wants to raise taxes on the wealthy in order to reduce the deficit by between $3 trillion and $4 trillion over 10 years. A sweep of the White House and Congress would put either party in a better position to accomplish its aims through tackling the cuts with a budget reconciliation measure, a way of getting around the Senate’s 60-vote filibuster. Republicans, who hold the House and face a favorable Senate map, likely have the best odds at such an outcome, particularly with polls showing Trump with an edge on Biden. A divided government will likely still deal with the expiring tax cuts, as opposed to having the tax code revert back to its 2017 levels, though what would happen in a situation of political gridlock is a bigger question mark. “Republicans of course want to extend all of it, a lot of Democrats want to extend a lot of it. There’s certainly pressure that if Congress doesn’t do something, some people are going to have tax increases, and there’s always this idea that tax increases are bad,” Steve Wamhoff, policy director at the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP), a Washington think tank, told The Hill. While lower corporate tax rate was permanently locked in in 2017, the individual provisions in the Trump tax law will expire at the end of 2025. Without extensions, married couples making the U.S. median household income of $74,580 will once again pay 15 percent of their income in tax instead of 12 percent. Income tax rates for top earners will bump up to 39.6 percent from 37 percent. The standard deduction will drop to $6,500 from $12,000 for individual filers and to $13,000 from $24,000 for couples. The $10,000 cap on state and local taxes will go away, along with a 20-percent deduction for pass-through businesses income. The Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) estimated the 2017 tax law would add $1.5 trillion to the deficit between 2018 and 2027. Legislation scorers have estimated that extending all provisions that are set to expire or to be downgraded will cost $3.8 trillion through 2033. The reversions built into the tax law made the deficit-expanding legislation significantly less expensive on paper, something Democrats have blasted as “one of the most egregious and fiscally reckless budget decisions in modern history.” “President Trump and congressional Republicans deliberately sunset portions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 legislation after 2025 to conceal both the true increase in the deficit—much larger than the already-massive $2 trillion cost estimate—and the true size of their tax breaks for multi-millionaires and large corporations,” the president’s 2024 budget says.
Teamsters Union Makes First Major GOP Donation Since 2004 Following Trump Meeting -Weeks after a meeting between former President Donald Trump and Teamsters Union leaders, including President Sean O'Brien and Secretary-Treasurer Fred Zuckerman, along with the union's executive board at their Washington, DC headquarters, America's most powerful labor union has made the first major donation to Republicans in two decades. This move has sparked huge concern that unions are losing faith in President Biden, lauded as the most pro-union president ever. According to Axios, the Teamsters' political committee donated $45,000, the maximum amount permitted, to the Republican National Committee. This was the first 'big' donation the union has made to the RNC since 2004. This comes after Trump attended a meeting with the heads of Teamsters last month. After the meeting, Trump told reporters: "We had a very strong meeting with the Teamsters." He added there was a very strong possibility that he would get their endorsement.
Truckers boycott NYC after Trump's $355M fraud ruling: Reports — A group of truckers, supporters of former President Donald Trump, are boycotting deliveries to New York City following the $355 million fine levied against him in a fraud case, according to a report by the New York Post.The move, initiated by trucker Chicago Ray, gained traction after he posted a video on social media declaring that some truckers are refusing to transport goods to the city. In the video, Ray stated that numerous drivers he had spoken to were planning to halt deliveries to protest the ruling issued in Manhattan Supreme Court last Friday. “I’ve been on the radio talking to drivers for about the past hour and I’ve talked to about ten drivers… and they’re going to start refusing loads to New York City starting on Monday,” Ray said in the video posted on X.Ray claimed that he had already communicated with colleagues who informed their bosses they would not be driving to The Big Apple. He emphasized widespread support among truckers for the boycott, stating, “Do you know how f—king hard it is to get into New York City with one of these motherf—ckers?”Manhattan Supreme Court Justice Arthur Engoron ordered Trump to pay $355 million for inflating his net worth over a decade to secure favorable loans. Additionally, Trump is prohibited from holding officer or director positions in New York companies for three years, the judge ruled.Trump denounced the case as “election interference” and warned of further repercussions for New York City.
Trump lawyer Alina Habba on NY fraud verdict: ‘They will not get away with it’ Alina Habba, a lawyer for former President Trump, slammed a judge’s recent ruling in the former president’s New York civil fraud trial Friday. “[T]hey will not get away with it,” Habba said on Fox News’ “Hannity”. “We will come at them, we will come hard, and we will literally fight until the truth comes out. There was nothing wrong. President Trump has done nothing wrong.” Judge Arthur Engoron ordered Trump to pay nearly $355 million in penalties in the case Friday, after Engoron already found Trump liable for fraud in September. New York Attorney General Letitia James (D) filed the suit against the former president in 2022, for deflating and inflating assets for tax and insurance benefits. “I think the biggest message I can give the American people tonight is that he’s not gonna get away with it,” Habba said of Engoron. “Letitia James is not gonna get away with it. The Biden administration is not gonna get away with it.” Habba’s comments on Fox News mirror those she made in a statement to The Hill following the ruling, calling it “manifest injustice” and the culmination of a “multi-year, politically fueled witch hunt that was designed to ‘take down Donald Trump.’” James praised the ruling in her own statement, saying it was a “tremendous victory for this state, this nation and for everyone who believes that we must all play by the same rules — even former presidents.” “Now, Donald Trump is finally facing accountability for his lying, cheating and staggering fraud,” she added. “Because no matter how big, rich or powerful you think you are, no one is above the law.”
Trump’s New York real estate empire in limbo after fraud verdict -For more than a century, the Trump family has developed real estate in New York. But the far-reaching ruling in former President Trump’s civil fraud case, if upheld, could leave the namesake family business without a Trump at its helm for the first time. Judge Arthur Engoron ruled Friday that Trump and top executives would for three years be banned from serving as a director or officer of any New York firm. His adult sons, Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump, were exiled for two years. And the powers endowed to an independent monitor overseeing the Trump Organization’s business were expanded. The decision followed a months-long trial after which the judge determined Trump and top executives conspired to alter his net worth to receive tax and insurance benefits. With Trump’s top deputies cast out, barring a successful legal appeal, the Trump Organization could be “hamstrung” by the decision, said Will Thomas, a business law professor at the University of Michigan. “It’s just unclear — who’s there to run this thing?” Thomas said. The Trump family’s real estate business began with the former president’s grandfather, who started buying land in New York City in the early 1900s. Trump’s father, Fred Trump, expanded the business, and Trump, the former president, himself transformed it into the empire it is today. Trump’s first big project as a young developer in Manhattan got underway in 1976, kicking off the decades-long career in real estate that boosted him to fame — and, later, the White House. During the trial, Trump lawyer Chris Kise described the former president as “part of the fabric” of New York’s real estate industry for half a century and sharply criticized New York Attorney General Letitia James (D) for attempting to put him “out of business.” While the ruling won’t shutter Trump’s company, it could significantly shake up its organization. Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump have run the Trump Organization together as executive vice presidents since 2017, when their father began his term as president. The ruling would block them from serving in their top leadership positions. Trump could still appoint someone to lead his company in compliance with Engoron’s order. While barred from serving as a director, he could — as an owner of the Trump Organization and other entities — select directors to serve in his place. Those directors could in turn choose officers to run the business day-to-day. “It makes it a very, very different kind of business, because … if the owner wants to have some kind of voice, they’re going to have to find someone willing to stand in their place as the director,” said Brian Quinn, a law professor at Boston College.
Trump Seeks Dismissal Of Mar-a-Lago Case, Says Jack Smith Lacks Authority - Former President Donald Trump filed several motions to dismiss a classified documents case being pursued against him in Florida on Thursday, arguing that, amongst other things, special counsel Jack Smith “lacks the authority” to prosecute the case In one of four motions, attorneys for the former president contend that neither the U.S. Constitution nor Congress had officially established the special counsel’s office, rendering Mr. Smith’s appointment invalid.Furthermore, they argue that the special counsel’s office is being funded “off the books” by the Biden administration.The motion, which cites the Appointments Clause, argues that Attorney General Merrick Garland did not have the authority to appoint a “like-minded political ally” as special counsel “without Senate confirmation.”“As such, Jack Smith lacks the authority to prosecute this action,” the motion reads.President Trump’s lawyers argue that the only remedy is to dismiss the superseding indictment.The Appointments Clause stipulates that all federal offices, except for the president’s, must be established by Congress and appointed with the advice and consent of the Senate. This is with the exception of federal offices created through the Necessary and Proper Clause, which empowers Congress to make laws necessary and proper for carrying into execution the powers vested in the government.“There is, however, no statute establishing the Office of Special Counsel,” the motion reads.
Trump Georgia prosecutor objects to questioning of ex-attorney in Fani Willis probe - A special prosecutor in the Georgia election interference case involving former President Trump objected Thursday to a judge’s plan to question his former attorney behind closed doors about the timeline of his relationship with Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis (D). Special prosecutor Nathan Wade said Thursday that his ex-attorney and former law partner, Terrence Bradley, should not be subject to a private questioning by Judge Scott McAfee, which may “unlawfully compel” the lawyer to break attorney-client privilege. The request follows a hearing last week where Wade and Willis insisted they began dating in 2022 — not prior, as defense attorneys purport — and that their romance, now over, is not a conflict of interest. During the hearing, Bradley invoked attorney-client privilege and said he could not speak to Wade’s relationship without putting his law license at risk. He said he began representing Wade in December 2018, ahead of the special prosecutor’s divorce proceedings. “Nothing under Georgia law authorizes the Court to conduct such an examination once the determination has been made that attorney-client privilege applies, and should the Court compel the disclosure anyway, it would vitiate one of the oldest and most fundamental privileges recognized both at common law and by statute,” Wade’s lawyers wrote in the Thursday court filing. Ashleigh Merchant, defendant Michael Roman’s attorney, previously told the court she expected Bradley to testify that Willis and Wade’s relationship began earlier than they say it did. A 2020 Trump campaign operative, Roman first brought Wade and Willis’s relationship to light in court filings and called for them to be booted from the sweeping racketeering case. The defense contends that Willis hired her romantic partner to prosecute Trump and has since financially benefited from his employment. Wade argued Thursday that lawyers for the defendants, including Trump, were given “broad leeway to pry into (his) private life” and used that time to introduce “intrusive and legally irrelevant personal details.” And still, they provided no “credible evidence” he or Willis should be disqualified from the case, he said. For the judge to now question Bradley, despite the privilege invoked, would be “a step too far,” Wade’s lawyers said. “The Court should not conduct the examination under any circumstance,” the lawyers wrote, bolding and underlining the text. The timeline of Willis and Wade’s relationship is crucial for establishing whether the representations the prosecutors made under oath are accurate. While the pair has remained firm that they began dating in early 2022 and broke up in summer 2023, an ex-friend of Willis’s testified that the district attorney “no doubt” began a romantic relationship with Wade in 2019, shortly after a municipal court conference. McAfee, the judge, has said the allegations against Willis and Wade “could result” in their disqualification if evidence shows an “actual conflict of interest or the appearance of one.”
Longtime crypto skeptic Donald Trump’s latest take on Bitcoin: ‘You probably have to do some regulation’ After characterizing Central Bank Digital Currencies as “tyranny” just last month, Donald Trump just said at a town hall that he’s—at the very least—aware of Bitcoin’s growing popularity. Fox News host Laura Ingraham asked the 77-year-old Republican front-runner about cryptocurrencies ahead of the Feb. 24 South Carolina Republican primaries, first bringing upCentral Bank Digital Currencies—digital mintings of Fiat currencies—while alluding to China’s push for a digital currency to increase government control. “But isn’t the next logical step for you to embrace Bitcoin? Because obviously it’s decentralized—the government can’t get its hands on it,” Ingraham asked. “I like the dollar, but a lot of people are doing it, and frankly it has taken on a life of its own,” Trump responded. “You probably have to do some regulation, as you know, but many people are embracing it, and more and more I’m seeing people wanting to pay with Bitcoin.” Trump on Jan. 19 vowed to never allow a digital dollar if reelected, calling such a thing “a dangerous threat to freedom,” but his relationship with Web3 tech has always been a bit more complicated than that. He’s reportedly had millions of dollars in a digital wallet and made millions more from licensed sales of NFTs.But rejecting a digital dollar remains a Republican talking point. In September, after the measure was reintroduced by Majority Whip Tom Emmer of Minnesota, the House Financial Service Committee pushed forward the CBDC Anti-Surveillance Act.“This is not just alarming—it’s downright un-American,” Emmer said at the time. “We’ve already seen examples of governments weaponizing their financial system against their citizens.”Even those more in favor of CBDCs, here or abroad, have expressed concerns over privacy. The Bank of England recently unveiled a framework to start designing a digital pound, with the proposal outlining how the bank would maintain the ledger but all wallets would be private and all user data would be anonymized.
Bitcoin's Satoshi Nakamoto Predicted Crypto Energy Use: 2009 Email - Satoshi Nakamoto, the mysterious inventor of bitcoin, predicted the debate over the token's energy use more than a decade ago, and said that cryptocurrency mining would be energy intensive but still less so than the legacy banking system. "If it did grow to consume significant energy, I think it would still be less wasteful than the labour and resources intensive conventional banking activity it would replace," Satoshi said in a 2009 email exchange released by early bitcoin developer Martii "Sirius" Malmi as part of a trial in the UK High Court. The emails were published by Wired on Thursday. Bitcoin uses an energy-intensive "proof of work" to bolster security, validate transactions, and prevent double-spending. Satoshi said it's "the only solution I've found to make p2p e-cash work without a trusted third party," referring to peer-to-peer transactions. A 2021 report from Galaxy Digital suggests that bitcoin uses less than half the energy of conventional banking, and also uses less than gold mining. "Ironic if we end up having to choose between economic liberty and conservation," Satoshi wrote in the email. The document dump comes as part of a legal battle in the UK over the identity of Satoshi. At the center of the court case is developer Craig Wright, who has claimed he is Satoshi, a claim that's been widely disputed.
Crypto funds hit $2.5 billion weekly inflow record amid growing spot Bitcoin ETF interest - Crypto funds at asset managers such as BlackRock, Bitwise, Fidelity, Grayscale, ProShares and 21Shares registered record inflows totaling $2.45 billion globally last week, according to CoinShares’ latest report.Dominated by the new U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, year-to-date inflows to digital asset investment products now stand at $5.2 billion. Combined with recent price increases, assets under management at the crypto investment firms now stand at $67 billion — the highest level since December 2021 amid the peak of the last bull market — CoinShares Head of Research James Butterfill wrote.The United States continued its regional dominance, accounting for 99% of the weekly inflows, totaling $2.4 billion. Switzerland and Germany-based funds registered modest inflows of $16.7 million and $13.3 million, respectively, while Sweden witnessed the largest regional outflows of $26.3 million.The significant acceleration of net inflows, alongside a reduction in outflows from incumbents such as Grayscale’s converted GBTC fund, indicates increasing interest in the new U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, according to Butterfill. Unsurprisingly, bitcoin investment products also dominated, again accounting for 99% of last week’s inflows. However, some investors increased their short positions, with $5.8 million worth of inflows added to short-bitcoin products.Ether led in terms of altcoin-based funds, witnessing $21.1 million in inflows. Avalanche funds saw inflows of $1 million, and Chainlink and Polygon products both added $900,000 — continuing their consistent weekly inflow streak.However, Solana investment products did not fare so well, registering $1.6 million in outflows with the network's recent downtime dampening sentiment, Butterfill argued.Blockchain equity ETF investors also took profits last week, leading to outflows totaling $167 million, Butterfill added.
FCA issued 450 alerts against illegal crypto promotions in 2023 - The Financial Conduct Authority used a new report this week to describe the degree to which it has focused on illegal cryptoasset promotions targeting UK consumers over the past year. The regulator reported releasing a total of 2,285 alerts over the past year to prevent consumers from falling victim to scams, with 450 of them in the fourth quarter of 2023 specifically targeting illegal cryptoasset promotions to UK consumers.The data, released on Wednesday, show that the regulator withdrew or amended over 10,000 financial adverts and other promotions in 2023. That represented a 17% increase compared to the previous year.Examples of the enforcement intervention that the FCA conducted in 2023 include taking action against a firm offering qualifying cryptoassets that had not identified web pages that constituted financial promotions. The FCA also said it gave feedback to a cryptoasset firm that utilized affiliates for promoting its products with no clear control framework to ensure any promotions made by its affiliates were legal.The FCA's financial promotion rules for cryptoassets went live on Oct 8, 2023. In the new guidelines, the regulatory authority warned that cryptocurrency memes found to be non-compliant with the new rules could potentially result in criminal offenses.To ensure that compliance is adhered to, the FCA said firms should issue financial promotions that are clear, fair and not misleading. Companies wishing to promote their financial products must display clear risk warnings and disclose regulated status.The regulator also expressed concern over the rise of influencers promoting financial products. "People need clear, fair, and accurate information to base their financial decisions on. We will continue to intervene and take action when we identify firms not meeting our minimum standards," FCA Director of Consumer Investments Lucy Castledine said.
Wall Street Law Firm Sullivan & Cromwell Gets Sued Over Allegations It Aided and Abetted the FTX Crypto Fraud - By Pam and Russ Martens: The 144-year old Wall Street go-to law firm, Sullivan & Cromwell, may be getting rich on the FTX bankruptcy legal fees, but it’s also doing a helluva job destroying its reputation as a prudent law firm. Last Friday, a federal lawsuit was filed against the law firm alleging civil conspiracy, aiding and abetting fraud, aiding and abetting breach of fiduciary duty, and violations of civil federal racketeering law in regard to its work for the collapsed crypto exchange, FTX, which looted customer funds to the tune of billions of dollars. Last year, Wall Street On Parade wrote more than 20 articles documenting the labyrinthine and deeply conflicted ways that Sullivan & Cromwell had enmeshed itself in the FTX crypto exchange before the house of cards collapsed. (See a small sampling of our work in “Related Articles” at the end of this article.) One of Sullivan & Cromwell’s law partners, Ryne Miller, moved to FTX.US and became its General Counsel. Another former Sullivan & Cromwell lawyer, Tim Wilson, became General Counsel for FTX Ventures, the venture capital arm of FTX. Sullivan & Cromwell had previously represented the kingpin of the fraud, Sam Bankman-Fried, who was convicted in November 2023 on seven counts of fraud and conspiracy. The law firm had also previously represented the Head of Engineering at FTX, Nishad Singh, who has pled guilty to fraud charges. According to Sullivan & Cromwell’s own bankruptcy court declaration, it had been involved in more than 20 legal engagements for FTX before it filed for bankruptcy on November 11, 2022. According to the declaration, the law firm’s legal work began 15 months prior to the collapse of the firm. Notwithstanding these conflicts, Sullivan & Cromwell steamrolled its way into becoming lead counsel of the FTX bankruptcy and then argued against allowing the U.S. Department of Justice’s U.S. Trustee to appoint an independent examiner – a legally mandated position for bankruptcy cases exceeding $5 million. Equally troubling, the FTX bankruptcy judge, John Dorsey, of the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware, bought into Sullivan & Cromwell’s arguments and declined to allow the U.S. Trustee to appoint an independent examiner. The Third Circuit Court of Appeals overruled the Judge last month. Sullivan & Cromwell’s conflicts with FTX and its demand to be appointed lead counsel in the bankruptcy were so over the top that in January of 2023 four sitting U.S. Senators (Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), John Hickenlooper (D-CO), Thom Tillis (R-NC) and Cynthia Lummis (R-WY)) sent a letter to Judge Dorsey. Senator HickenlooperTweeted a link to the letter with the comment: “Get this: FTX’s legal advisors *pre-collapse* want to be appointed to oversee investigations INTO the collapse.” The Senators’ letter included this blunt assessment of Sullivan & Cromwell’s conflicted role: “…from November 2022 to mid-January 2024, S&C’s income from matters just related to FTX has surged, exceeding $180 million — or 10% of the total revenue the 900-lawyer firm publicly stated it collected in all of 2022 — with paralegals billing $595/hr. and partners billing up to $2,165/hr.”“S&C attorneys served as the primary legal services providers for the RICO enterprise, assisting in the structuring of the enterprise operations.”“When the FTX fraud was revealed in November 2022, Mr. Miller and S&C moved to consolidate power over the FTX Group without delay, quickly ousting SBF [Sam Bankman-Fried] and his lieutenants and appointing in their stead hand-picked successors to navigate FTX through the bankruptcy process. S&C’s post-collapse maneuvering seems particularly calculated, given that S&C was well positioned to see the collapse coming, via knowledge gleaned from prior engagements.”“Mr. Miller and S&C moved to divert the $250 million FTX Guaranty Fund from LedgerX, one of the few entities S&C specifically chose not to include among the over 100 FTX entities it forced into bankruptcy, in order to secure receipt of a multi-million-dollar retainer to S&C before the FTX Group filed for bankruptcy, presumably to improve the Firm’s revenues throughout the extensive FTX bankruptcy process. With S&C’s assistance, SBF and FTX caused billions in losses to Plaintiffs through at least two separate schemes, both of which contributed to the downfall of the FTX Group.”“S&C was one of FTX US’s principal outside law firms and its conduct mirrors that of the other MDL [Multi-District Litigation] Defendants. This conduct violates numerous laws, including laws related to the sale of unregistered securities, consumer protection, professional malpractice, aiding and abetting fraud, negligence, breach of fiduciary duties, and violations of the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act (‘RICO’). S&C provided services to the FTX Group entities that went well beyond those a law firm should and ordinarily provides. As the evidence will reveal, S&C lawyers were eager to craft not only creative, but misleading strategies that furthered FTX’s misconduct. As several members of Congress recently remarked, these and other services are ‘often central to major financial scandals, given [legal counsel’s] role in drafting financial agreements, risk management compliance practices, and corporate controls.’ S&C is no different, and the services and strategies it provided to the FTX Group were important to the eventual FTX Group’s fraud.” The case is Edwin Garrison, et al., v. Sullivan & Cromwell LLP. It has been filed in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida. The case number is 1:24-cv-20630. It is part of Multi-District Litigation (MDL) and was stayed by the Judge in an order yesterday while claims proceed in a related case, In Re: FTX Cryptocurrency Exchange Collapse Litigation.
FTX to sell shares in AI startup Anthropic to pay back customers: CNBC Crypto World Video Duration: 12:09
46% of largest crypto airdrops peaked within 14 days — CoinGecko -- According to CoinGecko, among the 50 largest crypto airdrops since 2020, almost half of them reached all-time high prices within two weeks of the token being publicly listed. Recent data from cryptocurrency data aggregator CoinGecko indicates that holding a newly airdropped crypto token for more than 14 days has, nearly half the time, resulted in missing the opportunity to sell at its all-time high. Since 2020, there has been a significant increase in airdrop interest. The most common way to receive free airdropped tokens is through participating in pre-launch blockchain network activity or promotional work. On Feb. 1, Cointelegraph reported that a 17-year-old crypto investor claimed to have made over $1 million from the Solana-based Jupiter (JUP) airdrop.According to a recent report by CoinGecko, in the last four years, around half (46%) of the top 50 crypto token airdrops, including prominent tokens such as Ethereum Name Service, Blur and LooksRare, reached their peak prices within two weeks of launching.The report states that “23 out of the 50 biggest airdrops (46%) recorded peak token prices during the first 2 weeks of their airdrop date.”
New crypto scam drains users' wallets without transaction approval -- A new scam circulating on Telegram allows the attacker to drain a victim’s crypto wallet without the victim needing to confirm a transaction, according to user reports and blockchain data. The scam only works on tokens that comply with the ERC-2612 token standard, which allows for “gas-less” transfers or transfers by a wallet that does not hold Ether (ETH). While the method does not require users to approve a transaction, it appears to require tricking the user into signing a message. As more tokens implement the ERC-2612 standard, this particular type of attack may become more prevalent. Cointelegraph was contacted by a user who said he lost over $600 worth of Open Exchange (OX) tokens after visiting what he thought was the official Telegram group for the token’s developer, OPNX. However, it was a phishing scam. When he entered the Telegram group, he was asked to press a button to connect his wallet to prove that he is not a bot. This opened a browser window and he connected his wallet to the site, believing that a mere connection did not pose a risk to his funds. However, within a few minutes, all of his OX tokens were drained. The victim claimed that he never approved a single transaction from the page, yet his funds were stolen anyway. Cointelegraph visited the Telegram group and found that it featured a fake version of the Collab.Land Telegram verification system. The real Collab.Land system sends messages from Telegram channel @collablandbot, spelled with two lowercase “l”s. This fake version sent messages from @colIablandbot, with a capital “I” instead of a second lowercase “l.” In the font that Telegram uses for its usernames, these two letters look extremely similar. Fake Collab Land bot profile. Source: Telegram. In addition, the “connect wallet” button on authentic Collab.Land messages sends users to the URL connect.collab.info, which contains no dashes, whereas this fake version sent users to connect-collab.info, with a dash instead of a period.
The vast Ponzi scheme that is cryptocurrency – Rare is the thing in this world that can be pronounced with absolute certainty as nonsense. Drivel. Bilge, Claptrap. But there are a few such things. And of one of them, we can be sure. So every time I hear of someone taking cryptocurrency seriously, I have to ask them: Don’t you realize it’s all bull? Not a little bit on the baloney side of the ledger. Not just another gamble, or a fun fad, or a cool new investment, or an interesting alternative to that apparently deadly dull real thing that is money. It doesn’t exist. It is a scam. It is a prank. It has no intrinsic value whatsoever. So why do we even have to talk about it? Beats me, several years into the Bitcoin era. But the fact that your Uncle Nate still insists that you’re missing the next big thing by not exchanging legal tender for a piece of a Ponzi scheme does not make it not a Ponzi scheme. It is true that, in the wake of the properly discarded old gold standard, that paper dollar in your wallet has value mostly based on the fact that other parties will accept it in exchange for goods or services. And it is sort of true that it also has value because it is backed by the full faith and credit of the United States government. But that dollar is usually worth relatively more than any other currency issued by any other national treasury in the world not because, in the old days, of gold bricks piled up in Fort Knox, or these days of Washington, D.C. standing behind it. It’s worth more than other simoleons mostly because of the strength and low risks of the U.S. economy. And right there is another good reason to tell that Uncle Nate, the next time he starts fixing to strap horns on his head and have a little insurrection under the Capitol dome, to knock it off, knucklehead. He’s messing with your net worth. It is also true that, if you’re prepared to deal with an exchange system that gives new meaning to the word “volatility,” you can buy and find ways to spend instruments of digital currency. But what is it you imagine said instrument is backed by? Some bunco artist hustling you out of his swank office in Menlo Park? The con men who would like to take your actual money in exchange for their counterfeit currency will tell you that crypto is just digital money that doesn’t require a bank to verify its transactions, which are recorded on a blockchain, “an unchangeable ledger that tracks and records assets and trades.” They will laud it as so very au courant because it allows people to make payments to each other directly through an online system. To which you will reply: “Babe — ever heard of Venmo?” .
Pig butchering: The scam that hastened a bank's failure - A report from the government watchdog for the Federal Reserve said this month that Shan Hanes, the CEO of Heartland Tri-State Bank, had fallen victim to a type of investment fraud known as pig butchering, which led his bank to fail in July.American Banker reported previously that the bank's failure had been hastened by a scam and that the bank had rapidly borrowed $21 million from an unnamed Federal Home Loan bank. Details on the scam that led to the transactions were unclear until this month, when the Office of Inspector General for the Fed and Consumer Financial Protection Bureau released a report reviewing Heartland Tri-State's failure."Heartland Tri-State Bank failed because of alleged fraudulent activity conducted by the bank's chief executive officer (CEO), who initiated a series of wire transfers totaling about $47.1 million of Heartland's funds, among other suspicious activities, as part of an apparent cryptocurrency scheme referred to as 'pig butchering,'" the report said. People at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City whom the OIG interviewed said Hanes' wire transfers appeared to be part of the cryptocurrency scam. As early as January 2023, Hanes executed small cryptocurrency transactions through another bank unnamed in the report. Some of those transactions appeared to involve his personal funds and funds potentially belonging to other entities, according to the report."In subsequent weeks and months, the CEO began transferring larger dollar amounts including the 10 wire transfers that caused the bank to fail," the report, which does not mention Hanes by name, said. "These transactions to cryptocurrency exchanges that are of increasing amounts over time appear to be consistent with the progression of a pig butchering scam."Fed staff in Kansas City conducted two interviews with Hanes during the week of the bank's failure to better understand the events that occurred. Hanes provided screenshots of messages and supposed cryptocurrency account statements, but Fed staff found his explanations "unreliable and inaccurate" because they "did not make sense and were difficult to follow," according to the report.The U.S. Attorney's Office for the District of Kansas charged Hanes with one count of bank embezzlement on Feb. 12, punishable by up to 30 years in prison, for allegedly defrauding Heartland Tri-State of $47.1 million.
Ex-FBI official sentenced to 28 months for hiding foreign payments -- An ex-FBI agent has been sentenced to prison for accepting $225,000 from a foreign government while serving in the agency. Charles McGonigal, 55, was found guilty of taking money from an Albanian agent. At the time, McGonigal oversaw counterintelligence and national-security matters as the top agent in the FBI's New York office from 2017 and 2019. McGonigal received an 8-month sentence for concealing the payment of $225,000 from the FBI. In December, McGonigal was sentenced to a four-year prison term for working for Oleg Deripaska, a Russian oligarch under U.S. sanctions, who is an associate of Russian President Vladimir Putin's. McGonigal did not inform the FBI that he was paid by the Albanian official, and traveled outside the United States with the Albanian on private business.
Mask Off: Google's Gemini Blames Its Own Creators For Anti-White Racism -- Google went into damage-control mode this week after its new artificial intelligence model, Gemini, was caught engaging in historical revisionism which, until now, has been confined to the realm of entertainment and impressionable children whose parents are demonized for speaking out against it. Gemini has no problems generating pictures of 'strong black men,' but strong white men 'could potentially reinforce harmful stereotypes about race and body image. And of course, Gemini is not really interested in 'following the science,' as it were. Google Gemini is all-in on trans ideology, insisting that “trans women” are women and providing a pronoun guide for the uninitiated.pic.twitter.com/GOiJ4ZIwhO Cast in their image? AI chatbots, as we've come to understand, are a reflection of both the 'data sets' they train on (X posts, Reddit, etc.) and their programmers - who can insert absurd bias into their output. And while historical revisionism on entertainment platforms such as Netflix begin to reinforce historical revisionism being taught in schools - Gemini is being peddled as a reliable source of information.
Fed Fears "Notable" Financial System Vulnerability As Renowned CRE Investor Tells Team 'Stop All NYC Underwriting' - Democrat politicians in cities such as New York, often criticized for their disastrous progressive policies, have transformed the metro area into what some believe is a 'hellhole,' overrun by violent crime, migrants, homelessness, open-air drug markets, and constant chaos. According to one real estate investor with a commercial real estate portfolio worth billions of dollars, Democrats are quickly transforming NYC's CRE market into an unattractive option for investment. On X this week, real estate investor and influencer Grant Gardone said his real estate team at Cardone Capital has "Immediately discontinued ALL underwriting on New York City real estate." "The risk outweigh the opportunities at this time. Recent political decisions will continue to deteriorate price and benefit states that don't have these challenges," Gardone said. He told his real estate team to concentrate on "Texas & Florida" markets where the political environment is not hostile, and overall state economies are friendly towards investors. Dear Cardone Capital team,Immediately discontinue ALL underwriting on New York City real estate. The risk outweigh the opportunities at this time. Recent political decisions will continue to deteriorate price and benefit states that don’t have these challenges.Focus on Texas… pic.twitter.com/nTdJ5d4dO5— Grant Cardone (@GrantCardone) February 20, 2024 "Why would I buy in New York City where you can't actually collect rent, taxes are higher, & illegals are treated better than property owners," Cardone wrote in a post last month. I can buy Florida and get better assets for less, actually able to collect rents & the law respects the property owners?
JPMorgan Says Its “Trading Venues” Are Under Investigation While It’s Still on Probation for Prior Trading Crimes - By Pam and Russ Martens: Last Friday, ahead of a three-day weekend when bad news could be expected to evaporate into the ether by the next news cycle, JPMorgan Chase dropped a bombshell in its 10-K (annual report) filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The bank, which has admitted to an unprecedented five criminal felony counts since 2014, said its “trading venues” were under investigation by three unnamed regulatory bodies.This is a very serious matter for this particular bank because three of its prior felony counts involved rigging markets. The bank admitted to rigging foreign exchange markets in 2015 and to rigging, for more than eight years, the precious metals and U.S. Treasury markets in an agreement with the U.S. Department of Justice in September 2020.Two of the precious metals traders involved in the 2020 case, Gregg Smith and Michael Nowak, are sitting in federal prison today in Otisville, New York. Smith, of Scarsdale, New York, was sentenced to two years in prison and is scheduled for release on June 13, 2025. Nowak, of Montclair, New Jersey, was sentenced to one year and one day. Nowak is scheduled for release on July 30 of this year. Jamie Dimon, the Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, whose tenure has seen an unprecedented crime wave at the bank, received a $50 million bonus. (See our report: After JPMorgan Chase Admits to Its 4th and 5th Felony Charge, Its Board Gives a $50 Million Bonus to Its CEO, Jamie Dimon.)In the 2020 criminal case, the bank was put on probation under a Deferred Prosecution Agreement for three years, starting with the date the “Information” (formal charging document) was filed. That document was filed on the court docket in the U.S. District Court for the District of Connecticut on September 29, 2020, meaning it should have expired on September 29, 2023. But in JPMorgan’s Friday 10-K filing for the period ending December 31, 2023, the bank states as follows:“The Firm is subject to a Deferred Prosecution Agreement entered into with the Department of Justice on September 29, 2020, relating to precious metals and U.S. Treasuries markets investigations, as well as a cooperation obligation under a related order issued by the CFTC [Commodity Futures Trading Commission].”Under the 2020 Deferred Prosecution Agreement, the U.S. Department of Justice had the right to extend the probation period on the following basis: “…in the event the Fraud Section and the Office determine, in their sole discretion, that the Company or the Related Entities have knowingly violated any provision of this Agreement or have failed to completely perform or fulfill each of their obligations under this Agreement, an extension or extensions of the Term may be imposed….”The exact statement the bank made in its Friday filing with the SEC about the current investigations of its “trading venues” is as follows:“Trading Venues Investigations. The Firm has been responding to government inquiries regarding its processes to inventory trading venues and confirm the completeness of certain data fed to trade surveillance platforms. The Firm self-identified that certain trading and order data through the CIB [Corporate and Investment Bank] was not feeding into its trade surveillance platforms. The Firm has completed enhancements to the CIB’s venue inventory and data completeness controls, and other remediation is underway. The Firm has also performed a review of the data not originally surveilled, which is nearly complete, and has not identified any employee misconduct, harm to clients or the market. While the identified gaps represent a fraction of the overall activity across the CIB, the data gap on one venue, which largely consisted of sponsored client access activity, was significant. The Firm is dedicated to maintaining rigorous controls and continuously enhancing the reliability of its trade infrastructure. The Firm expects to enter into resolutions with two U.S. regulators that will require the Firm to, among other things, complete its remediation, engage an independent consultant, and pay aggregate civil penalties of approximately $350 million. The Firm is also in advanced negotiations with a third U.S. regulator, but there is no assurance that such discussions will result in a resolution. The Firm does not expect any disruption of service to clients as a result of these resolutions.”There are two key points to note about the above statement: (1) The bank jumped the gun on waiting for its regulators to notify the public as to just how helpful JPMorgan was in reporting the problem to regulators and whether it, indeed, “self-identified” the problem as it claims. (This is, after all, the bank that laundered money for Bernie Madoff for years without filing the required Suspicious Activity Reports and is alleged by the Attorney General of the U.S. Virgin Islands to have done the same thing for sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein. Self-reporting is not exactly Jamie Dimon’s strong suit.) (2) The bank fails to specify the regulator that it has not come to an agreement with. If that’s the criminal division of the U.S. Department of Justice, that’s a big problem for a bank that is an unrepentant recidivist.
Tenn. bank is latest to be penalized over banking as a service - Lineage Bank in Franklin, Tennessee, was slapped with a regulatory action in connection with its fintech partnerships, the latest in a series of enforcement cases in the banking-as-a-service sector.Under a consent order with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., the $290 million-asset bank must implement a board-supervised strategic overhaul that boosts its risk controls, increases its capital and results in the offboarding of some of its fintech partners.The order took effect on Jan. 29. It was first reported on Friday by Fintech Business Weekly and made public later in the day.Regulatory scrutiny of banks' banking-as-a-service programs has increased in the last two years. Federal agencies have been emphasizing through enforcement actions that financial institutions — not their fintech partners or intermediaries — are on the hook for meeting compliance standards.Blue Ridge Bank in Virginia, which has been hit with two consent orders from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, has cut ties with at least a dozen fintech partners and restructured its balance sheet to meet regulatory requirements.Jonah Crane, a partner at the advisory and investment firm Klaros Group, said in an interview last month that he expects every bank with a banking-as-a-service line of business to see some level of regulatory action over the next year.Many banks dove into the sector to add deposits and fee revenue but didn't appropriately allot resources for staff and technology, Crane said. Cross River Bank and First Fed Bank are among the financial institutions that have had to rein in their banking-as-a-service businesses due to compliance failures.
Regulators should reexamine their assumptions about brokered deposits -- The banks that failed in 2023 shared one key similarity: high concentrations of uninsured deposits. Yet regulators like the Federal Deposits Insurance Corp. remain convinced that the real cause was "poor management" — and that the solution lies in more bank supervision and maintenance.While this may be useful, regulators should also consider another strategy if they want to address the nagging problem of uninsured deposits and improve bank stability in 2024 and beyond. Principally, they should reconsider their assumptions and definitions governing core and brokered deposits.It's important to first understand why uninsured deposit concentrations played such a critical role in last year's bank failures.The problem is primarily one of competition. The top ten banks in the country control over half of all assets in commercial banking. To compete, then, others must differentiate themselves by going deep in sectors that have unique needs. In the case of Silicon Valley Bank, it was venture backed startups; for Signature Bank, it was cryptocurrency.As their loan portfolios in those sectors grow, however, so too does the need for deposits. The ratio between loans and deposits is highly regulated, and as a result, lenders often make it a condition of the loan that the borrower holds deposits at their bank — which in turn creates uninsured deposits. By the end of 2022, for instance, 93.8% of SVB's deposits were above the insurance threshold, and 89.3% of Signature's deposits were uninsured. The story with the smaller banks is not that different. Nearly all of Silvergate Bank's deposits were uninsured, and the bank was highly concentrated with cryptocurrency clients. Heartland Tri-State Bank was tied to cryptocurrency investment as well, while Citizens Bank of Iowa was heavily concentrated in the trucking industry and had about 50% of its deposits uninsured.While their strategies might be to continue to diversify into different segments, it can take years for this to develop to the point where it can be diversified enough. In the interim, these and other banks like them continue to pose greater risks than depositors and regulators may realize.In today's banking environment, depositors should be paying attention to where their cash sits and focus on safety. Regulators, meanwhile, should consider revisiting Section 29 of the Federal Deposit Insurance Act, which covers rules related to brokered deposits. This rule is relatively recent, having come into effect in April 2021, and providing much needed clarity for banks through the primary purpose exception that third-party agents could seek. While a helpful step forward, the rule falls short of achieving this goal because it focuses on the nature of the business of the third party and not the nature of the deposits themselves.The FDIC has historically asserted that such deposits can be less stable than deposits gathered directly by the bank. The FDIC argues that these deposits weaken the customer-bank relationship, which could lead depositors to jump ship should a better deal present itself.
OCC's Hsu proposes 'tripwire' approach to FSOC designations — Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu Wednesday called for the Financial Stability Oversight Council to establish a "tripwire approach" to the designation of systemically important nonbanks, whereby certain metrics would automatically advance a firm to active consideration for designation if met. "The tripwires could complement other modes of analysis and would not have to be the exclusive means of prompting an assessment," he said. "Notably, the only consequence of crossing a tripwire would be to move from the identification phase to the assessment phase of the analytic framework [and] each assessment would then be conducted on its own merits, irrespective of the tripwire, which would inform the need for an FSOC response (if any), ranging from interagency coordination and information-sharing to initiating the process to consider a designation." Hsu said the body would pursue such a regime through the regular notice-and-comment process. He also said a "tripwire" — which triggers the assessment of systemic risk when a company exceeds a set of standardized metrics and thresholds worked out by the FSOC — could be complemented by a scalar for fund structures and affiliated insurance activities. "Closed-end funds with long lock-up periods would have a lower scalar than innovative, non-closed-end fund structures, such as evergreen funds," he said. "Private credit funds with no links or affiliations with [private equity]-influenced insurers or reinsurers would have a lower scalar than those with links and affiliations." FSOC — of which Hsu and other agency heads are members — recently issued a final rule allowing the body to more easily designate nonbanks as systemically important financial institutions, while also issuing a new analytic framework the council says will provide clarity on how they identify systemic risks. According to Hsu, one particular category of nonbank — private equity firms — merits greater scrutiny. He argued PE firm models have evolved in ways that increasingly blur the lines between banking and commerce. As highlighted by Hsu, PE firms historically raised investor funds to invest in illiquid shares of private sector entities, but that's changing. In addition to the growth of private credit, PE firms are now offering more liquid options, such as evergreen or open-ended funds with fewer lock-up provisions, enabling investors to redeem funds more easily. "These structures, however, can introduce new risks, including redemption risks similar to those faced by open-end bond funds, which have been cited as a financial stability concern by the FSOC and the [Securities and Exchange Commission]," he said. In his remarks, Hsu also voiced concern about the expanding role of nonbank fintechs in payments. He argued that while the rise of peer-to-peer payment apps and point-of-sale terminals in retail locations demonstrates companies leveraging technology to innovate and compete, it also brings risks as these companies venture into more comprehensive business models. "Companies that started off simply facilitating payments now offer customers the ability to deposit paychecks directly into their accounts, earn yield on the cash held there and access credit, all with a few clicks of a mouse or taps on a phone," he noted. "Any entity managing money on behalf of customers can face a run if those customers have doubts about the safety of their money."
California AG warns smaller banks, credit unions on penalty fees California Attorney General Rob Bonta.David Paul Morris/Bloomberg California Attorney General Rob Bonta is warning smaller banks and credit unions about the consequences of hitting consumers with certain penalty fees, arguing that the charges likely violate both state and federal law. Bonta, a Democrat, highlighted two specific kinds of fees in a letter to California-chartered banks and credit unions that have less than $10 billion of assets. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau lacks supervisory authority for financial institutions whose total assets fall below the $10 billion threshold. First, the AG warned the banks and credit unions about charging overdraft fees that aren't reasonably foreseeable. Such fees sometimes get assessed when an account shows a positive balance at the time the transaction is authorized, but a negative balance at the time of settlement. "The complexity of how payments are processed, authorized, and settled by financial institutions make it difficult for the average consumer to make an informed decision on whether to use overdraft protection and incur an overdraft fee for any particular transaction," Bonta wrote in the letter, which was sent this week. Bonta also focused on fees that get charged to customers who deposit checks that are later returned because they can't be processed against the account of the person who wrote them. Customers often deposit checks without the knowledge that they're bad. "The consumer typically would not know if the check originator had sufficient funds in their bank account, whether the account was closed, or whether the signature on the check is valid," Bonta wrote. The letter was sent to 197 state-chartered banks and credit unions, according to the California attorney general's office.
BankThink: The CFPB's data access requirements should apply to auto loans | American Banker -The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is rolling out an important new rule to give consumers access to their financial data. It's called the Personal Financial Data Rights Rule, and implements Section 1033 of the Consumer Financial Protection Act. This rule could be a golden opportunity to empower auto loan shoppers and improve their borrowing experience.Unfortunately, the current CFPB proposal does not apply to auto loan documents. Instead, it focuses on open access requirements to savings and checking accounts, digital wallets and credit cards. This omission is troubling because of all the major consumer lending products, consumers likely have the least knowledge of the contents of their auto loans. Consumers directly engage lenders to obtain mortgages, student loans and savings accounts. In contrast, 70% to 80% of car buyers get their auto financing indirectly through car dealer networks.For these loans, it is the dealer, not the consumer, who shops for loan offers. It is the dealer who selects the loan it finds most favorable. Consumers show dealers their applications, pay stubs, bank statements, insurance coverage information and sign key loan documents, but they do not actually see the lending package (called a "deal jacket") that the dealer submits to the lender. Deal jackets are voluminous documents that can run to 60 or more pages.According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, total household debt reached $17 trillion in Q3 2023. Car loans are tied with student loans for the second highest debt item on the household balance sheet at $1.6 trillion. Only mortgage loans, at a whopping $12.14 trillion, hold a larger share of household debt. Given the importance of auto loans to consumer wealth and financial health, consumers should have more control and understanding of the information underlying these debt instruments.If consumers had the right to see their own loan deal jackets, the entire lending ecosystem could benefit. Consumers would see tangible improvements in the price, transparency and accuracy of their loans. Lenders could reduce fraud and enjoy improved, up-front communications with consumers about ancillary products, which would reduce consumer confusion and problems during servicing.
Deepening downturn in U.S. agriculture economy red flag for banks -Weak commodity prices, high interest rates and lingering inflationary pressures could sink farm income for a second straight year in 2024. This could hamper agriculture borrowers' ability to service their debts and present loan-loss challenges for banks."How do farmers manage through all this? That's the 800-pound gorilla in the room," said Curt Covington, senior director of institution credit at AgAmerica Lending, an agriculture specialty lender in Lakeland, Florida.At issue: U.S. farm incomes could drop 26% this year to $116.1 billion after falling 16% in 2023 amid a slump in prices for many crops, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in a February forecast. This would follow a record year for income in 2022, when farmers collectively earned $185.5 billion.For example, corn and soybean prices that are critical for the fortunes of farmers throughout the Midwest were both down about 10% early this year after double-digit declines in 2023 amid bumper crops, excess supply and pullbacks in export demand from China and other foreign economies that are slowing.U.S. farmers ramped up crop output in the early days of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 to meet a sudden spike in global demand. Agriculture-heavy Ukraine's crop exports were curtailed, and American producers helped to fill the void. But supplies grew too abundant and, with parts of the global economy sluggish, demand declined over the past year. Crop prices followed suit.Additionally, while substantially improved from its peak in 2022, festering inflation continues to keep costs for everything from labor to equipment relatively high, making it too costly for many farmers to profitably plant crops this year.Against that backdrop, agriculture bankers and economists say more farmers may struggle to cover their costs and loan payments, raising credit risk. "Some farmers will find themselves in trouble with their lenders," Covington said.The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer, a measure of farmer sentiment, produced a reading in January that was 18% below the same month a year earlier.Farmers "pointing to lower commodity prices and lower farm income in 2024 significantly influenced the decline,"
Supreme Court weighs timeliness of challenge to bank interchange fees The Supreme Court heard oral arguments Tuesday in a case filed by a North Dakota truck stop that claims it has been harmed by excessive bank interchange fees and should not be barred from challenging the Federal Reserve's swipe-fee rule due to a six-year statute of limitations. The plaintiff in the case, Corner Post, Inc. v. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, claims that it was harmed when it opened for business in 2018 and was charged debit card "swipe fees" — a major moneymaker for big banks and credit card companies. Debit card fees were capped under a provision of the 2010 Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, which was finalized by the Federal Reserve Board in 2011. . A lawyer for the truck stop argued that it should be able to challenge the Fed's rule on swipe fees as excessive, and that there should be no statute of limitations. The justices grappled with the question of whether a newly formed company can challenge a regulatory rule if it is barred from filing a claim due to the Administrative Procedure Act's six-year statute of limitations and what remedy would be appropriate if the company was harmed. Justice Clarence Thomas asked the first question about whether any other similar cases have been brought in which an injury occurred long after a rule has been finalized. "Do you have any other cases like yours where the injury occurs long after the rule is adopted?" Thomas asked. "I'm more interested in the fact pattern … you have a rule that's adopted, it's final, it's been challenged. Then you go into business, you begin to operate under these rules, and you claim that's the beginning of your injury. And that restarts the statute of limitations." Bryan Weir, a partner at Consovoy McCarthy PLLC representing the plaintiff Corner Post, argued that the clock started on the statute of limitations when the truck stop was first harmed and incurred its first swipe fee. He argued that because the truck stop hadn't even existed when the statute of limitations ran out, it has been denied its day in court and judicial review. "The first time Corner Post was ever actually injured is the time they didn't pay the actual debit card fees that they had to pay whenever they swipe the debit card," Weir said. Justice Elena Kagan questioned how a company can claim it has been injured when it goes into business knowing the regulatory structure that exists. "This is kind of a revolutionary ask," Kagan said. "There's no injury in my mind when you enter a business knowing its structure and accepting rules that have been finalized." She said that until recently the consensus view of circuit courts has been that the statute of limitations under the Administrative Procedure Act began when an agency finalized a rule, and then trade groups typically file an immediate challenge. "What you're suggesting is a very different rule than the administrative sphere has worked under for many, many years," Kagan said.
Big banks charge higher credit card APRs than smaller issuers, CFPB says --The largest credit card issuers charge significantly higher annual percentage rates than smaller issuers, resulting in some cardholders' paying as much as $400 to $500 a year extra and the big companies' earning billions of dollars in additional interest income, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau said. The CFPB on Friday released a survey of 84 banks and 72 credit unions that found large credit card issuers offered the highest interest rates across all credit scores. The survey comes as the CFPB is expected to finalize a rule soon that would slash credit card late fees to $8, potentially wiping out up to $9 billion a year in profits for banks and credit card issuers. The survey results also coincide with the CFPB's narrative under Director Rohit Chopra that the largest banks are charging consumers so-called junk fees primarily to pad their bottom lines. The survey found that small banks and credit unions offer lower interest rates on average across all credit-score tiers than the largest 25 credit card companies. The median interest rate charged by large credit card companies was 28.2% compared with 18.15% charged by small issuers, to consumers with good credit — typically credit scores between 620 and 719, the CFPB said."Our analysis found that the largest credit card companies are charging substantially higher interest rates than smaller banks and credit unions," Chopra said in a press release. "With over $1 trillion in credit card debt outstanding, the CFPB will be accelerating its efforts to ensure that consumers can access better rates that can save families billions of dollars per year." The CFPB found that the APR spread between the top 25 issuers and the smallest ones was between 8 to 10 percentage points, with only a slight variation based on consumers' credit scores. The survey was based on data collected in the first half of 2023 including data on so-called purchase APRs, which captures the interest rate credit card issuers charge on purchases when a consumer carries a balance. The CFPB has said that credit card companies' margins are increasing as they price APRs further above the prime rate, which the bureau has said signals a lack of price competition. Credit card companies are offering more generous rewards and sign-up bonuses to win new accounts, which largely benefits consumers with higher credit scores who pay their balances in full each month. The CFPB has long sought to explore ways to promote transparency and comparison shopping on purchase APRs — a major cost of credit cards that is often unknown to consumers prior to card issuance.
Credit card issuers' APR margins hit record 14.3% in 2023, CFPB says -- Credit card companies earned $25 billion in additional interest last year by raising interest rate margins on revolving balances to the highest levels ever recorded, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau said Thursday. Credit card holders paid an additional $250 each in 2023 in interest due to credit card issuers' increases in the average margin on annual percentage rates, which is what credit card issuers charge above the benchmark prime rate, a proxy for banks' funding costs. Higher APR margins drove about half of the increases in credit card rates over the past 10 years and have generated returns that are significantly higher than other bank activities, the CFPB said. APR margins on credit card accounts with revolving balances rose to 14.3% in 2023, the highest point in recent history, up from 9.6% in 2013, the bureau said. Major credit card issuers collected $25 billion in additional interest income in 2023 compared with 2013 as a result, the CFPB said. "By some measures, credit cards have never been this expensive," wrote Dan Martinez, the CFPB's credit card program manager, and Margaret Seikel, a CFPB financial analyst, in a blog post."Increases to the average APR margin — despite lower charge-off rates and a relatively stable share of subprime borrowers — have fueled issuers' profitability for the past decade." The latest analysis of charges on credit cards comes as the CFPB is on the verge of issuing a final rule that would cut credit card late fees to just $8, potentially wiping out $9 billion a year in fees. Last week the bureau issued a separate report that found cardholders pay up to $500 a year extra due to higher APRs. The credit card industry could draw even more scrutiny from regulators following Capital One Financial's plan to buy Discover Financial for $35.3 billion.The focus on APR margins is new given that the charges typically are not apparent to consumers since APR margins are embedded in overall interest charges. Consumers have focused far more on increases in the prime interest rate that have been particularly sharp, jumping to 8.5% in 2023 from 3.3% in 2021.The CFPB said that over the last 10 years, the average APR on credit cards has nearly doubled to 22.8% in 2023 from 12.9% in 2013, the highest level recorded since the Federal Reserve began collecting the data in 1994. In 2022 alone, major credit card companies charged over $105 billion in interest, the primary cost of credit cards to consumers. The CFPB also said in the blog that its research found "high levels of concentration in the consumer credit card market," including evidence of practices that inhibit consumers' ability to find alternatives to expensive credit card products.
The Capital One-Discover deal raises thorny issues for Washington — Capital One Financial's proposed acquisition of Discover Financial Services will spark an epic test of Washington policymakers who are increasingly skeptical of concentration in the financial industry. Competition — or the lack thereof — will be at the heart of the debate as bank regulators and antitrust officials weigh whether to approve the deal. Does Capital One's purchase of Discover create an unstoppable credit card-issuing giant? Does it help consumers by giving Discover's payments network a fighting chance against massive rivals Visa and Mastercard? Or does it do both? And if so, what should be the verdict? "The question is: Is this anti-competitive or is it pro-competitive?" said Todd Baker, a professor at Columbia Law School and managing principal at Broadmoor Consulting.The Biden administration, which has pledged aggressive scrutiny of mergers in the banking and financial sectors, would ideally like not to be approving more big-bank mergers, Baker said. "But this might actually be one which is relatively pro-competitive," he added.Monday's announcement of the proposed $35.3 billion merger immediately drew criticism from Democratic lawmakers. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., said that the deal "threatens our financial stability, reduces competition, and would increase fees and credit costs for American families." "Regulators must block it immediately," Warren said on X, formerly known as Twitter.Consumer groups, including the National Community Reinvestment Coalition and Americans for Financial Reform, also came out against the deal, which would combine two of the top six U.S. credit card lenders."Today's concentrated markets and behemoth banking organizations are the result of a thirty-year run of mergers and consolidation," said Patrick Woodall, senior fellow at the Americans for Financial Reform Education Fund. "It is time for the banking regulators to stop rubber-stamping these transactions and stand up for consumers, communities, and a more stable financial system by blocking this takeover."The deal's approval is not a slam dunk, experts said, nor is its rejection. But they also said there are reasons to think that the Biden administration, notwithstanding its general skepticism of large mergers, might approve this particular deal.Even if Capital One were to suddenly account for 19% of U.S. credit card loans — as some analysts calculated would be the case if the merger goes through — it would still face strong rivals such as JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and American Express.But the clearer argument for approval is that, thanks to Capital One's larger balance sheet and customer base, Discover's payments network would get the lift it needs to better compete with Visa and Mastercard, which are often described as a "duopoly."
Will the Capital One-Discover deal stall Durbin's interchange bill? — The Durbin-Marshall credit card bill could face headwinds in the wake of the Capital One-Discover deal, analysts said. Capital One's potential purchase of Discover — which still needs regulatory approval from an administration skeptical of financial consolidation — could rewrite the political calculus behind one of Capitol Hill's most controversial banking bills: the Credit Card Competition Act.It's a particularly relevant dynamic to watch ahead of this year's presidential elections, and shortly before President Joe Biden heads to Congress for this year's State of the Union address, where, as he did last year, he's expected to bring up so-called junk fees and talk about prices and fees for consumers in everything ranging from credit cards to airline tickets. The legislation, co-sponsored by Sens. Dick Durbin, D-Ill., and Roger Marshall, R-Kansas, has sparked fierce opposition from the banking industry, and a lobbying campaign that has included television ads that tell consumers and voters that the bill would be a giveaway to large retailers. Still, the legislation has recently garnered more support on Capitol Hill, gaining additional co-sponsors from both parties. The bill would require cards from banks with $100 billion or more of assets to offer merchants the choice of two unaffiliated card networks that aren't both Visa and Mastercard. A combined Capital One and Discover would account for 19% of U.S. credit card loans, according to some estimates, and could be a viable third-party alternative to Visa and Mastercard. That's the argument, at least, for the deal's approval among regulators. It could also mean that the deal would be trying to solve the same problem that the Durbin-Marshall legislation is looking to address. "The bill would ensure that large card-issuing banks offer at least two networks and that one of them isn't either Visa's or Mastercard's," said Ian Katz, managing director at Capital Alpha Partners, in a note. "But the prospect of Capital One moving some of its cards to the Discover network undercuts the bill's intent. At the very least, it complicates the analysis, and when things get complicated, members of Congress tend to punt."
BankThink: Capital One-Discover merger pits concentration risk against payments competition | American Banker - One of the chief problems about abstract principles is that they tend to fit uncomfortably into lived experience. A similar kind of collision between general preferences and specific conditions, I think, may be coming for banking regulators as they now consider the recently announced merger between Capital One and Discover. As a general matter, the Biden administration has been skeptical of bank mergers and has undertaken a yearslong effort to overhaul the bank merger review process as part of a broader push to boost market competition in general. But there has also been a renewed push in Congress — led by Senate Democratic Whip Dick Durbin, D-Ill. — to increase competition in credit card interchange by giving merchants the option to use a credit card network other than Visa and Mastercard, thereby injecting a dose of competition in payments rails that market forces alone have been unable to achieve in practical terms.The Capital One-Discover merger would give that ambition a meaningful boost by giving one of the country's biggest credit card issuers its own global payments network, and the stated goal of the merger, according to Capital One CEO Richard Fairbank, is precisely that."Our acquisition of Discover is a singular opportunity to bring together two very successful companies with complementary capabilities and franchises, and to build a payments network that can compete with the largest payments networks and payments companies," Fairbank said in a news release accompanying the announcement Monday.But the merger also has the effect of creating an even bigger bank that has an inherent and significant concentration risk in credit cards — precisely the kind of market concentration that felled Silvergate and Silicon Valley Bank and has more recently brought undesired heat on New York Community Bank. Capital One, for example, is a bank with $440 billion of assets as of Dec. 31, 2022, and a big chunk of those assets — $121 billion — is in credit card loans. Discover, meanwhile, has about $10 billion in credit card loans — the single largest category of loan receivable on its books. To be sure, Capital One and Discover do other things besides credit card loans, but credit card loans are the thing they both do best — and would presumably like to do more of if the merger were to be approved.The reason that might give regulators pause is because credit card usage and delinquency tends to be more sensitive to broader economic headwinds than other kinds of credit. On the not-infrequent occasions when the Federal Reserve's stress test scenario includes a dramatic rise in credit card delinquencies and charge-offs, Capital One and Discover are often among the banks that get dinged the hardest. Making a new, supercharged credit card machine, therefore, may create a challenger to Visa and Mastercard, but will also create a new megabank that is uniquely susceptible to rampant charge-offs if the economy hits the skids somewhere down the road.
BankThink: It's time to revamp the call report's archaic handling of CRE loans | American Banker - Despite the heightened focus on risks associated with commercial real estate lending, the quarterly call report filed with bank supervisory agencies has not evolved to provide banks and regulators with the necessary information to assess the financial health and risk profile of institutions with CRE lending concentrations. It is time to change this for the benefit of all stakeholders, especially banks and their regulators.While multifamily properties have traditionally been broken out into their own category, the call report did not separate owner-occupied CRE from non-owner-occupied CRE until 2008. This change was significant because the financial viability of an owner-occupied property depends on the health of the underlying business, whether it be a manufacturing company, law firm or technology business. Non-owner-occupied CRE, on the other hand, relies heavily on the property's ability to generate rental income.However, not all rental income is equal. For example, an empty office tower in downtown Washington poses different risks than a thriving strip mall in the suburbs of Leesburg, Virginia. It is lazy at best and misleading at worst to group non-owner-occupied CRE into a single category. Office properties are currently experiencing a structural shift due to the work-from-home trend, while strip malls which typically are located in nonurban areas are benefiting from it. The underwriting and risks associated with lending to these two segments of the CRE market are very different.Similarly, a half-empty shopping mall and a fully occupied industrial warehouse have undergone structural changes due to the rise of online shopping, but in opposite directions. By expanding the call report to require banks to break down their non-owner-occupied CRE loans by property type, regulators can efficiently assess banks based on concentration risk. Banks with diversified portfolios or concentrations in property types experiencing strong structural trends, such as strip malls or warehouses, can better communicate their risk profile to regulators, investors, insurance underwriters and the media. While some banks may resist such a change, viewing the call report as burdensome red tape, expanding it to require banks to break down their CRE loans by property type could be limited to banks with CRE concentrations greater than 300% of capital and with over $1 billion in assets. Most banks meeting this definition should welcome this change, as an inability to easily break out their CRE loans by property type should raise a red flag in itself.
MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.22% in January -From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 0.22% in January The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 1 basis point from 0.23% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.22% as of January 31, 2024. According to MBA’s estimate, 110,000 homeowners are in forbearance plans. Mortgage servicers have provided forbearance to approximately 8.1 million borrowers since March 2020.In January 2024, the share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance declined 2 basis points to 0.13%. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance remained the same at 0.39%, and the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) increased 1 basis point to 0.28%.“The combination of a potential economic slowdown in 2024, and indications that consumer debt balances and delinquencies are on the rise, could lead to more homeowners struggling to make their mortgage payments and inquire about forbearance and available loan workout options,” “Most pandemic-related protocols have sunset, which gives mortgage servicers different rules of engagement when it comes to assisting borrowers through loan forbearance or a loan workout.” At the end of January, there were about 110,000 homeowners in forbearance plans.
Mortgage Rates Rise Back to 7%, Housing Market Re-Freezes, Buyers’ Strike Continues. Prices Are Just Too High By Wolf Richter The average conforming 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 7.0% in the latest week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association today. The daily measure by Mortgage News Daily has been over 7% for days. These are the highest rates since mid-December, when they were on their way down. Mortgage rates had been flirting with 8% back in October last year when the rate-cut mongers fanned out in droves all over the media. Amid enormous hoopla about a gazillion rate cuts in 2024, starting in January, longer-term yields plunged. Mortgage rates plunged with them, with the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate, as tracked by the MBA, falling as low as 6.75% in mid-January. And it was going to be the next boom in the housing market. And then inflation data came in and called for order.That relatively small increase in mortgage rates caused mortgage applications to re-plunge – after they’d barely risen from the record lows going back to 1995 – a sign that the housing market remains frozen because prices are still too high, and potential sellers are still thinking that this too shall pass, and potential buyers have figured it out. Mortgage applications to purchase a home plunged by 10% in the latest week from the prior week, seasonally adjusted, according to the MBA. Mortgage applications were down by 9% from the already depressed levels in the same week a year ago. They were just a hair above the late-October record lows in the data going back to 1995. They’re down by:
- 2022: -47%
- 2021: -42%
- 2019: -43%
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey -- From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey: Mortgage applications decreased 10.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 16, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 10.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 8 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 11 percent from the previous week and was 0.1 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 10 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 13 percent lower than the same week one year ago. "Mortgage rates moved back above 7 percent last week following news that inflation picked up in January, dimming hopes of a near term rate cut,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist. “Mortgage applications dropped as a result with a larger decline in refinance applications. Potential homebuyers are quite sensitive to these rate changes, as affordability is strained with both higher rates and higher home values in this supply-constrained market." ... The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) increased to 7.06 percent from 6.87 percent, with points increasing to 0.66 from 0.65 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index. According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 13% year-over-year unadjusted. Purchase application activity is up slightly from the lows in late October 2023, and below the lowest levels during the housing bust. Other than a few weeks last year, this is the lowest level since 1995. The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index declined sharply in 2022, and has mostly flatlined since then.
Dead Smoke Alarms, Moldy Rooms, Empty First Aid Kits: Farmworkers Endure Unsafe and Substandard Housing Across US -- No smoke detector. No fire extinguisher. No emergency exit. In October 2022, an inspector ticked off problems in the white, single-story house in a rural town in western Nebraska. Three farmworkers — the low-paid laborers that power the agriculture industry — were scheduled to arrive in town soon. They would corral cattle in the cold.Their employer intended to keep them in the white house, but it was unlivable, according to the inspector. Along with no fire prevention measures in place, mold flowered in the basement, and water pooled in the drains.State records are unclear whether the employer addressed the inspector’s findings.But, across the country, when farmworkers arrive at employer-provided housing, they often face similar problems, according to Investigate Midwest’s review of more than 6,600 inspections of H-2A housing and migrant labor camps from 19 states.. Inspectors in nine of the 19 states noted dead smoke detectors, empty fire extinguishers and blocked or nonexistent emergency exits. Some inspectors asked employers to provide emergency exit signs in English and Spanish, the language most farmworkers are fluent in. In all, inspectors identified more than 300 problems related to fire prevention in just 2022, according to Investigate Midwest’s analysis.In one incident in 2021, two men perished in a fire in employer-provided housing in North Carolina. The cause of the fire is unclear. The state inspected the trailer before workers arrived, but the inspection offered no details on the condition of its smoke alarms. A survivor of the fire told Investigate Midwest he could not remember alarms sounding. The employer could not confirm whether the alarms worked, according to a fire investigation report Inspectors in eight states identified leaky fridges or toilets, or standing puddles of water. In a New York house, water seeped from the upstairs kitchen into a bedroom. Mold grew in the bathroom. Some 200 inspections identified leaks or mold or mildew. Mold can lead to itchy eyes or skin and breathing issues, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In nine states, inspectors recorded either missing first aid kits or kits that had insufficient supplies. Providing a first aid kit to H-2A workers is a federal requirement, yet inspectors had to remind employers of this about 100 times in 2022, according to the records. Agriculture work often exposes workers to danger, such as excessive heat and pesticides that can irritate the eyes and skin.The figures above represent a small sample of the total number of inspections in a year. In some instances, the issues were fixed during follow-up inspections or on the spot, as some inspection documents showed.Problems can persist, though.For example, in 2021 in southern Michigan, an inspector visited a grouping of houses along a rural highway. He noted an empty fire extinguisher, no batteries in the smoke detectors and a broken GFCI outlet. The inspector told the employer the “critical” violations needed to be rectified before workers arrived. A follow-up inspection, months later, would confirm the fixes. But in the previous two years, inspectors had identified similar issues, records show. In all, only six inspection records in the 19 states explicitly stated dwellings were in “good condition.”Many people working in the American agriculture industry have the potential to face substandard housing. There are roughly 1 million farmworkers in the U.S., according to federal data. About a third of them arrive in the U.S. on H-2A, or temporary agriculture labor, visas.They detassel the corn that allows major seed and pesticide companies, such as Bayer and Corteva, to produce more efficient seed varieties to market to farmers. They pick and package the vegetables that consumers purchase conveniently at grocery stores. And, more commonly now, they build massive barns for the livestock industry.The federal government requires all states to inspect H-2A housing annually, though only some states inspect known migrant labor camps. Understanding the quality of farmworker housing proved difficult.
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.00 million SAAR in January --From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Rose 3.1% in January - Existing-home sales grew in January, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Among the four major U.S. regions, sales accelerated in the Midwest, South and West, and remained steady in the Northeast. Year-over-year, sales improved in the West, and decreased in the Northeast, Midwest and South. Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – elevated 3.1% from December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million in January. Year-over-year, sales slipped 1.7% (down from 4.07 million in January 2023). Total housing inventory registered at the end of January was 1.01 million units, up 2.0% from December and 3.1% from one year ago (980,000). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.0-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 3.1 months in December but up from 2.9 months in January 2023. This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994. Sales in January (4.00 million SAAR) were up 3.1% from the previous month and were 1.7% below the January 2023 sales rate. The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes. According to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.01 million in January from 0.99 million the previous month. Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer. The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory. Inventory was up 3.1% year-over-year (blue) in January compared to January 2023. Months of supply (red) decreased to 3.0 months in January from 3.1 months the previous month. This was above the consensus forecast.
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.00 million SAAR in January; Median Prices Down 8.4% from Peak NSA Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.00 million SAAR in January - From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Rose 3.1% in January: Existing-home sales grew in January, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Among the four major U.S. regions, sales accelerated in the Midwest, South and West, and remained steady in the Northeast. Year-over-year, sales improved in the West, and decreased in the Northeast, Midwest and South. Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – elevated 3.1% from December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million in January. Year-over-year, sales slipped 1.7% (down from 4.07 million in January 2023)....Total housing inventory registered at the end of January was 1.01 million units, up 2.0% from December and 3.1% from one year ago (980,000). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.0-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 3.1 months in December but up from 2.9 months in January 2023.The sales rate was above the consensus forecast. Sales in January (4.00 million SAAR) were up 3.1% from the previous month and were 1.7% below the January 2023 sales rate.The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.According to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.01 million in January from 0.99 million the previous month.Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer. The third graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.Inventory was up 3.1% year-over-year (blue) in January compared to January 2023. Months of supply (red) decreased to 3.0 months in January from 3.1 months the previous month.In January 2019, months-of-supply was at 3.8 months, so there is less supply now, on a months-of-supply basis, than prior to the pandemic. Even though sales have declined significantly, inventory has fallen even more - pushing down months-of-supply.The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2023 and 2024. Sales declined 1.7% year-over-year compared to January. This was the twenty-ninth consecutive month with sales down year-over-year. This was just above the cycle low of 3.85 million SAAR in October 2023.
This Housing Market is Still Frozen By Wolf Richter -- The national median price of existing homes – single-family houses, condos, and co-ops – declined to $379,100 in January, down by 8.4% from the peak in June 2022, according to data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) today.The year 2023 was the first year since the Housing Bust when the seasonal high in June was lower than the seasonal high and all-time high a year earlier (June 2022). Year-over-year, the median price in January was up 5.1% (historic data via YCharts):This was based on deals that closed in January, many of which were made in December and November, when mortgage rates were careening lower, falling well below 7%. But things have changed this year, inflation turned out to be more resilient, theFed has been pouring cold water on the rate-cut mania, mortgage rates have been rising for weeks, and currently are over 7% once again, and mortgage applications have re-plunged from already low levels. So this is what the housing market will have to deal with going forward.The seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales ticked up to 4.0 million in January from 3.88 million in December, and was down 2% from the collapsed levels a year ago.In the last few months of 2023, the rate of sales had been the worst since the two worst months of the Housing Bust in 2010. January was just a hair higher.Sales compared to prior Januarys (historic data via YCharts):
- From 2023: -2%.
- From 2022: -37%
- From 2021: -40%
- From 2019: -20%.
- From 2018: -26%.
Actual sales – not the seasonally adjusted annual rate – fell to 234,000 homes in January. But that was up 1.3% from a year ago.Seasonally, January and February mark the bottom of the year in terms of closed sales, as they reflect in part deals over the holidays. June is usually when closed sales peak, reflecting deals made during the end of “spring selling season” in April and May. During the second half of the year closed sales decline (data via NAR):
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory UP 15.7% YoY; New Listings up 10.9% YoY - On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For January, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 7.9% YoY, and down 40% compared to January 2019. Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 15.7% YoY, and that would put inventory still down about 39% compared to February 2019. Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending February 17, 2024• Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 15.7% above year ago levels. For a 15th consecutive week, active listings registered above prior year level, which means that today’s home shoppers have more homes to choose from that aren’t already in the process of being sold. So far this season, the increase in newly listed homes has resulted in a boost to overall inventory, but while the added inventory has certainly improved conditions from this time in 2021 through 2023, overall inventory is still low compared to the same time in February 2020 and years prior to the COVID-19 Pandemic. New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were up this week, by 10.9% from one year ago. Newly listed homes were above last year’s levels for the 17th week in a row, which could further contribute to a recovery in active listings meaning more options for home shoppers. This past week, newly listed homes were up 10.9% from a year ago, accelerating slightly from the 9.5% growth rate seen in the previous week.Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. Inventory was up year-over-year for the 154th consecutive week following 20 consecutive weeks with a YoY decrease in inventory. Inventory is still historically very low.Although new listings remain well below "typical pre-pandemic levels", new listings are now up YoY for the 17th consecutive week.
Housing February 19th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 0.2% Week-over-week, Up 12.9% Year-over-year - Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.2% week-over-week. I expect inventory to bottom in February this year, as opposed to mid-April in 2023. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of February 16th, inventory was at 494 thousand (7-day average), compared to 495 thousand the prior week. Inventory is still far below pre-pandemic levels.The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Note that inventory is up double from the record low for the same week in 2022, but still well below normal levels.Inventory was up 12.9% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 11.4%), and down 39.7% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 39.1%). Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels has closed a little. Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.
Single Family Built-for-Rent Almost Doubled Since 2020 -- Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Single Family Built-for-Rent Almost Doubled Since 2020 A brief excerpt: Along with the monthly housing starts report for January released last week, the Census Bureau also released Housing Units Started by Purpose and Design through Q4 2023. The first graph shows the number of single family and multi-family units started with the intent to rent. This data is quarterly and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA). Although the majority of units built-for-rent’ are still multi-family (blue), there has been a significant pickup in single family units started built-for-rent (red). In 2020, there were 44,000 single family units started with the intent to rent. In 2023, that number almost doubled to 85,000 units. For multi-family, there were 327,000 units started to rent in 2020, and 393,000 in 2023. About 18% of the built-for-rent units started in 2023 were single family unitsAIA: "Architecture Billings Index Reports Sluggish Conditions to Start 2024"; Multi-family Billings Decline for 18th Consecutive Month - Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index Reports Sluggish Conditions to Start 2024 -- Architecture firm billings remained soft entering into 2024, with an AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score of 46.2 in January. Any score below 50.0 indicates decreasing business conditions. “This now marks the lengthiest period of declining billings since 2010, although it is reassuring that the pace of this decline is less rapid and the broader economy showed improvement in January,” . "Firms are seeing growth with inquiries into new projects and value of newly signed design contracts is holding steady, showing potential signs of interest from clients in new projects.”Business conditions remained weak at firms in all regions of the country except the Midwest, where modest growth was seen in three of the last four months. Firms with a multifamily residential specialization continue to report the softest business conditions of all specializations.• Regional averages: Northeast (43.6); Midwest (50.9); South (45.2); West (46.6)
• Sector index breakdown: commercial/industrial (47.0); institutional (48.5); mixed practice (firms that do not have at least half of their billings in any one other category) (42.9); multifamily residential (44.6)
This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 46.2 in January, down from 46.5 in December. Anything below 50 indicates a decrease in demand for architects' services. Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions. This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a slowdown in CRE investment in 2024. Note that multi-family billing turned down in August 2022 and has been negative for eighteen consecutive months (with revisions). This suggests we will see a further weakness in multi-family starts.
Rolling Disaster: Ford Halts 2024 F-150 Lightning Shipments -Automotive News was the first to report Ford Motor Co. halted shipments of all 2024 F-150 Lightning electric pickup trucks for an undisclosed quality control issue just weeks after slashing production volumes for the EV model due to sliding demand. A Ford spokesperson did not explain the reasons behind the quality check, but shipments of Lightnings have been halted since Feb. 9. Even with shipments paused, production of the Lightnings continues at the Rouge Electric Vehicle Center in Dearborn, Michigan. "We expect to ramp up shipments in the coming weeks as we complete thorough launch quality checks to ensure these new F-150s meet our high standards and delight customers," company spokeswoman Emma Bergg wrote in a statement.
Commuting in the United States: 2022, Census Bureau – Introduction; The COVID-19 pandemic substantially changed U.S. commuting behaviors between 2019 and 2021, especially with respect to home-based work. Employers, workers, families, governments, and service providers continued to adjust to the constraints of the pandemic in 2022. For example, many employers encouraged workers to return to on-site work while testing flexible work arrangements, traditional employment centers hosted fewer on-site workers, and many states and municipalities evaluated the role public transportation should play given reduced and uncertain ridership. This brief describes how commuting behaviors have developed since the pandemic’s initial disruption. Download Commuting in the United States: 2022 [<1.0 MB] (pdf)
DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven Increased 2.1% year-over-year in 2023 00The Department of Transportation (DOT) reported:
• Travel on all roads and streets changed by +2.2% (+5.7 billion vehicle miles) for December 2023 as compared with December 2022. Travel for the month is estimated to be 263.7 billion vehicle miles.
• The seasonally adjusted vehicle miles traveled for December 2023 is 273.0 billion miles, a +2.7% ( +7.3 billion vehicle miles) change over December 2022. It also represents a -0.2% change (-0.5 billion vehicle miles) compared with November 2023.
• Cumulative Travel for 2023 changed by +2.1% (+67.5 billion vehicle miles). The cumulative estimate for the year is 3,263.7 billion vehicle miles of travel.
This graph shows the monthly total vehicle miles driven, seasonally adjusted.
Miles driven declined sharply in March 2020, and really collapsed in April 2020. Miles driven are now at pre-pandemic levels.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 201,000 -The DOL reported: In the week ending February 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 201,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 212,000 to 213,000. The 4-week moving average was 215,250, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 218,500 to 218,750. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 215,250. The previous week was revised up. Weekly claims were below the consensus forecast.
Study suggests pandemic employment drop for US nurses was transitory A new study in JAMA Health Forum of national data on US registered nurses (RNs) finds that the rebound in the total size of the RN workforce during 2022 and 2023 indicates that RN labor shortages during the first 2 years of the pandemic were likely transitory.In 2021, the US RN workforce decreased by more than 100,000 employees, the largest single-year drop in 40 years. But by 2022, increases in RN hiring had picked up across the country. To assess if pandemic trends were lasting or an anomaly, researchers used data from the US Bureau of the Census Current Population Survey, including employed RNs aged 23 to 69 years from 1982 through 2023. They paired those data with a retrospective cohort analysis of employment trends by birth year and age to project the age distribution and employment of RNs through 2035.Included in the survey were 455,085 RNs ages 23 to 69. The authors found that the total number of full-time RNs in 2022 and 2023—3.35 million—was actually 6% higher than in 2019 (3.16 million).Using projections based on enrollment in nursing programs and jobs data, the authors estimate that by 2035, the RN workforce will grow by 1.2 million full-time employees to 4.5 million, which matches prepandemic forecasts. RNs ages 35 to 49 will make up nearly half of the workforce (47%) in 2035. In 2022, those RNs accounted for 38% of the workforce."This forecast suggests that the pandemic's impact on employed RNs, at least thus far, is unlikely to have a significant impact on the future growth of the overall RN workforce," the authors said.
Five year old asylum seeker died of sepsis from strep, COVID and other infections linked to overcrowding in Chicago shelter --Five-year-old Jean Carlos Martinez Rivero, who was staying with his family at a migrant shelter in the Pilsen neighborhood of Chicago, died last December 17 as a number of diseases reportedly tore through the large facility where his family had been living since late November.A report by the Cook County Medical Examiner determined Jean Carlos died of sepsis due to “widespread bacterial infection” of Group A Streptococcus pyogenes. The boy also had COVID-19, adenovirus and rhinovirus/enterovirus. His cause of death was ruled “natural.”Democratic Mayor Brandon Johnson, once a Chicago Teachers Union lobbyist and Cook County Commissioner whose election was heavily promoted the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), has made no personal statement about the report. The conditions in the Pilsen warehouse facility have been widely reported as inhumane. Migrants, medical service providers and volunteers have spoken out about the lack of resources made available by the city to meet basic needs. The shelter has been housing more than 2,400 people, though it was constructed to house just 1,000. The shelter sits in the ward of DSA Alderman Byron Sigcho Lopez, who on February 18 spoke to CNN to defend the city’s shelter system while appealing for support from the federal government and state of Illinois. He said, “Right now, in Chicago, we are trying to do everything we can to address the serious needs that we can have, in terms of these humanitarian needs. We have, right now, unfortunately, as you mentioned, these tragedies that keep... mounting because of the serious conditions that are being created.“We have a governor in Texas that is treating this is a—as a war zone. He’s not treating these like a humanitarian crisis. We have people arriving in flip flops and without jackets often times. We have Arctic weather... When we see this—again, we are all familiar with the strep throat in Chicago. Unfortunately, when this becomes a more serious and aggressive type,and we’ve seen a lot of disease, this is—this ended up in a tragedy... we, as the city, as a community, we are an immigrant community, we’re urging the state, for instance, to win state access and document the patients to be able to access medical care.” The shelter houses some of the more than 33,000 migrant families from Latin America, many from Venezuela, who have arrived in Chicago since Texas Governor Greg Abbott began busing large number of people into US cities from the southern US border.Asylum seekers have described the extreme overcrowding, inadequate and spoiled food, filthy bathrooms, vermin and a lack of availability of medical care. Families have also described verbal intimidation and abuse by shelter staff, for which the city of Chicago is paying hundreds of millions to private contractor Favorite Staffing. The parent company of Favorite is Acacium Group, which has been involved in corporate scandals as a contractor for the British National Health Service. Acacium itself is ultimately owned by Onex, a global conglomerate led by Canadian billionaire Gerry Schwartz.Florida health officials investigate measles outbreak at school— The Florida Department of Health is investigating a measles outbreak at a South Florida elementary school.The Florida Department of Health in Broward County announced Sunday it is investigating four cases confirmed at Manatee Bay Elementary School in Weston, according to CBS News. The first case was reported Thursday and three others were confirmed Saturday. “The health, safety and welfare of our students and staff remain our utmost priority,” the Broward County Public School District said in a statement to NewsNation affiliate WFLA. “The district continues to work closely with the Florida Department of Health-Broward following three additional confirmed measles cases at Manatee Bay Elementary School. The school’s principal is keeping families informed and following health department guidelines to safeguard our community.” The Broward health department said those who have received the full series of measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) immunization are 98% protected and are highly unlikely to contract the disease. People can remain contagious for about eight days — four days before the disease’s signature rash appears and four days after, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The virus can also survive up to two hours in the air after an infected person leaves the area. The Broward health department advises people who suspect or notice measles symptoms to contact their health care provider for instructions before visiting their offices.
Local school closed as leaders seek restraining order -- — A private elementary and middle school in Akron canceled classes on Tuesday as school administrators sought restraining orders, due to threats allegedly made against them over the weekend. According to recent posts on the Akron Preparatory School Facebook page, late last week, police were called to investigate after a middle school student made an allegation against one of the school’s teachers.“Akron Police did not find evidence to support the claim and concluded that the allegation was false,” wrote the school in Monday evening post. “Members of the reporting family appeared unsatisfied with the results and began threatening school administration, including appearing on a local podcast over the weekend to speculate and threaten administrators.” According to an updated morning post from the school, authorities had not yet determined if the alleged threats were credible and school leaders had not received confirmation if a police presence would be available throughout the school day.“For these reasons, we are closing school out of an abundance of caution for the safety and security of our students and staff,” the school announced early Tuesday on Facebook.Akron police Capt. Michael Miller told FOX 8 News on Tuesday afternoon that the student’s initial claim is under investigation.The suspects believe one of the school’s teachers hit their son, according to police reports from Monday, Feb. 19, provided to FOX 8 News. One of the suspects threatened to shoot the teacher and “put her in the back of a trunk” and a threatened a shooting at the school. Another suspect posted the teacher’s identifying information online, according to the report. The incident led to a student being kicked off the basketball team, a school administrator told police, which led to threats against himself and other school leaders.School administrators said they have filed reports to request restraining orders and are now seeking legal counsel on whether to press charges.A statement from Akron Police Department reads: “We take all matters of public safety very seriously and will do all we can by working collaboratively with stakeholders to de-escalate the situation and resolve the matter as needed.”
Juvenile suspect in Wooster High School threat found; here’s when classes will resume — A juvenile who allegedly made a threat prompting Wooster City School leaders to make a late call to cancel classes for Tuesday has been taken into custody, school officials said later that morning.According to school officials, at about 6:15 a.m. on Tuesday, Feb. 20, the district was notified of a potential threat made on social media against Wooster High School.“This report led to the immediate involvement of state and local law enforcement agencies to determine the credibility of the threat. Our action to cancel the school day was a direct response to ensure the well-being of our school community,” reads an update from Superintendent Gabe Tudor. The juvenile was taken into custody, “eliminating any immediate threat to our school community,” reads the statement.Classes are expected to resume as scheduled on Wednesday, Feb. 21, Tudor said. “ The safety of our students and staff is our utmost priority, and we will continue to uphold our commitment to providing a safe learning environment,” the statement reads. “We understand that this situation may be unsettling, and we want to reassure you that we are taking every necessary precaution to secure our school.”Tudor commended the students who spoke up and brought the threat to administrators’ attention, in keeping with its safety motto, “See Something, Say Something.”
Advocates, lawmakers link nonbinary Oklahoma teen’s death to anti-LGBTQ legislation and rhetoric As the shocking death of a nonbinary Oklahoma high school student reverberates through the LGBTQ community, advocacy groups and state and federal lawmakers say hateful rhetoric and laws that target LGBTQ individuals are to blame for the teenager’s untimely passing. Nex Benedict, 16, was a sophomore at Owasso High School in Owasso, Okla., a Tulsa suburb of about 40,000. They collapsed at home Feb. 8, a day after they were involved in a physical altercation in the girls bathroom at school.The students involved in the fight, which reportedly lasted less than two minutes and was broken up by other students and a staff member, “walked under their own power to the assistant principal’s office and nurse’s office” following the altercation, the school district said Tuesday in a statement. Each of the students involved was given a health assessment by a registered nurse, and while school officials ultimately decided that an ambulance was not needed, “out of an abundance of caution, it was recommended to one parent that their student visit a medical facility for further examination,” the school district said. Each of the students’ parents were notified of the incident and given the option to file a police report. Sue Benedict, Nex’s grandmother and legal guardian, told The Independent this week that she took Nex to Bailey Medical Center in Owasso immediately following the fight and was discharged after speaking with a resource officer. They returned the following day after Nex collapsed, she said, and Nex died later that evening. Owasso Police said Tuesday that the results of an autopsy and toxicology report are pending.“It is not known at this time if the death is related to the incident at the school or not,” police said in a statement. “We can assure everyone that this incident is being taken seriously and is being investigated thoroughly.”Owasso Public Schools in its statement did not say what caused the fight to break out. In text messages shared with KOKI-TV in Tulsa, Nex told a family member that the altercation was the result of bullying. According to Benedict, Nex had been bullied at school for being nonbinary since at least the beginning of last year. Dozens of LGBTQ advocacy groups and lawmakers have since early Monday, when news of Nex’s death began gaining traction on social media, mourned the teenager’s death in public statements. Many link the bullying that allegedly caused the fight between Nex and their classmates to a slate of laws passed in Oklahoma last year targeting LGBTQ people.The state is one of nearly two dozen to ban gender-affirming health care for transgender minors, and Republican Gov. Kevin Stitt last year signed an executive order directing state agencies to adopt narrow definitions of “male” and “female” that exclude trans people.Stitt in 2022 signed legislation barring transgender individuals, including students, from using bathrooms at K-12 schools that match their gender identity. This year, state legislators have already proposed more than 50 anti-LGBTQ laws, according to the ACLU, more than any other state. “Whether Nex died as a direct result of injuries sustained in the brutal hate-motivated attack at school or not, Nex’s death is a result of being the target of physical and emotional harm because of who Nex was,” Freedom Oklahoma, a state LGBTQ advocacy group, said Tuesday in a statement. “This harm is absolutely related to the rhetoric and policies that are commonplace at the Oklahoma Legislature, the State Department of Education, and the Governor’s office, with regard to dehumanizing [Two Spirit, trans and gender non-conforming] people.”
Rampant abuse in Kentucky’s juvenile justice system - Former prisoners held in a juvenile detention facility in Kentucky filed a lawsuit last month detailing abuse, neglect and humiliation.The suit alleges that two adolescent girls were placed in isolation cells for weeks in unsanitary conditions. One of the girls was placed in a padded cell without a toilet. The other teenage girl, who was 17-years-old and seven months pregnant at the time, was only allowed out of her cell around five times in one month for a walk. Both of the girls remained in isolation cells for the entire time that they were held and provided only rare opportunities to take a shower. Filed in the federal US District Court for the Western District of Kentucky, the lawsuit names as defendants the Adair County Youth Detention Center, the Kentucky Department of Juvenile Justice (DJJ), the Cabinet for Health and Family Services, as well as a number of state and facility leaders, and calls on other former prisoners to join in a class action against the state for the pervasive abuse in its juvenile justice system.This lawsuit also includes testimonies from other young people at the center that attest to the sadistic and torturous character of jail staff. Some described staff at the prison forcing young girls to strip naked in the presence of members of the opposite sex. Staff also forcibly removed prisoners’ clothes or withheld clothes while the girls were in view of other youth or prison staff. In one alleged incident reminiscent of torture employed at Guantanamo Bay, a young person was held in an isolation cell with “a Spanish version of ‘Baby Shark’ playing on loop.” Another account reported that a young girl “spent days soaked in menstrual blood” as the prison staff would verbally assault and humiliate her about hygiene. Kentucky presently operates eight prisons designed to house young people throughout the state. Incarcerating around 163 per 100,000 youth a year. This is more than double the national average of 74 per 100,000. Many of the young people incarcerated in Kentucky are not considered to be “significantly more violent” nor are they “a danger to society.” In reality, many are considered “status offenders,” charged with minor and age-specific violations like truancy, or they have run away from home. On average, they spend about a week in custody, although there are many more that have been locked up for a month or more in pre-trial detention. It is nearly impossible to fully cross-reference the charges levied against these young people because typically the names of minors are kept confidential; in 2022, more than 100 young people held in juvenile prisons had state appointed guardians, otherwise known as “wards of the state.” These are young people coming from unstable homes and are placed within the foster care system. Children who are “wards of the state” are at risk of remaining in a perpetual state of being locked in a juvenile detention center. The Kentucky Department for Community Based Services (DCBS) reports inherent struggles of getting young people out of detention centers and placing them in either foster homes or private agencies, due to a lack of openings. The struggle in finding placement is increased if the young person has been diagnosed with a mental health issue or a “history of misbehavior.”
Harvard condemns ‘flagrantly antisemitic’ cartoon - Harvard University condemned a “flagrantly antisemitic” cartoon posted by three groups affiliated with the school amid a congressional investigation into related issues on the campus. The Harvard Undergraduate Palestine Solidarity Committee and the African American Resistance Organization posted a cartoon depicting a noose tied around the necks of an Arab man and a Black man with a hand holding the rope that contains a Star of David and a money sign. The cartoon was reposted by the Harvard Faculty and Staff for Justice in Palestine. The groups have since apologized, and a statement was posted by Harvard interim President Alan Garber condemning the image. “While the groups associated with the posting or sharing of the cartoon have since sought to distance themselves from it in various ways, the damage remains, and our condemnation stands,” Garber said. “As members of an academic community, we can and we will disagree, sometimes vehemently, on matters of public concern and controversy, including hotly contested issues relating to the war in Israel and Gaza, and the longstanding Israeli-Palestinian conflict,” Garber said in the statement. “But it is grossly irresponsible and profoundly offensive when that disagreement devolves into forms of expression that demonize individuals because of their religion, race, nationality, or other aspects of their identity.” The two groups that initially posted the cartoon released a statement Tuesday saying they posted an image with “hurtful antisemitic tropes” and they “wholeheartedly apologize.” The incident comes amid a congressional investigation into antisemitism on campus, with the House Education Committee recently subpoenaing Harvard for not handing over sufficient documents on the issue. “This repugnant antisemitism should have no place in our society, much less on Harvard’s faculty,” the committee posted on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter.
University of Michigan student government to investigate administration’s shutdown of referendum on Gaza genocide -- On February 6, the Central Student Government (CSG) at the University of Michigan voted to launch an investigation into the U-M administration’s halting last November of a campus-wide referendum which the CSG had authorized on two competing resolutions concerning the Israeli war on Gaza. One of the resolutions, drawn up by Zionist supporters of Israel, defended the mass slaughter of Palestinians by the Israeli military; the other called on the university to acknowledge that Israel was engaged in genocide against defenseless Palestinian civilians and to divest from companies implicated in the ethnic cleansing of the Palestinian enclave. The CSG authorized the referendum last October, with voting on the rival resolutions to take place in conjunction with student government elections conducted online last November 28 through November 30. The International Youth and Students for Social Equality (IYSSE) at U-M distributed a leaflet calling for a “yes” vote on the anti-genocide, pro-Palestinian resolution. On November 30, only hours before the official end of voting and with a record 10,000 ballots having already been cast, U-M Vice President and General Counsel Timothy G. Lynch issued a statement announcing that the university was disallowing the referendum on the Gaza resolutions and would not reveal the results to that point of the vote. Lynch cited as the pretext for the unilateral and anti-democratic suppression of the vote a mass email sent out the previous day by supporters of the anti-genocide resolution, which had been falsely denounced by Zionist forces as an improper use of the campus email system. University of Michigan students rallied on Friday, December 1, to denounce the administration’s cancellation of a student referendum vote on Israel's genocidal war in Gaza and to divest from the war profiteers. The real reason for the ham-fisted action was the administration’s realization that the anti-Zionist, anti-genocide resolution was headed for victory, which would have delivered a significant political blow to the campaign of propaganda and lies mounted by both the Israeli government and the US government and media in support of the bombing and starving of Palestinian men, women and children.A few days later, on December 5, U-M President Santa Ono issued a public letter acknowledging that there was nothing improper about the email sent out by supporters of the anti-genocide resolution, thereby undercutting the entire rationale advanced by the university for shutting down the referendum. Nevertheless, Ono upheld the disallowing of the referendum and announced a permanent ban on any such vote on the Gaza war in the future.
Students sanctioned for protest in defense of pro-Palestinian colleagues at University of Texas at AustinOn Wednesday, four University of Texas at Austin students, Evan Scope Crafts, Sameeha Rizvi, Valkyrie Church and an unnamed student who wishes to remain anonymous, accepted sanctions imposed by University administrators for a December 8 protest they conducted in the office of Allan Cole, the dean of the Steve Hicks School of Social Work. In accepting the sanctions, Scope Crafts, a PhD candidate, told media that he was not in a position to disrupt his degree: “I am four and a half years into a PhD; I can’t afford to lose what I have put into this at this point,” noting, “I feel like I’m being essentially forced to take the sanctions.” The protest consisted of calling for the reinstatement of two student teaching assistants who were fired by Cole on November 22 after sending out a letter to their students expressing their disapproval of the university administration’s response in the wake of Israel’s genocidal campaign against Gaza after Hamas’s attack on October 7. In response to the protest the four students were accused by the university administration of disruptive conduct and unauthorized entry into the office of Allan Cole. The protest consisted of around 10 to 15 people, in which they entered Cole’s office and Scope Crafts read a letter aloud that condemned the firing of the two teaching assistants and demanded their immediate reinstatement. Cole hastily left the office and entered another room, shutting the door. After reading the two-page document, the students left. The students were later questioned about the protest by campus police. According to Scope Crafts, the four students received a letter on January 17 stating the university was investigating them for intentionally causing a disruption inside a school administrator’s office. An appeal from Scope Crafts told the Texas Tribune, “This is an attack on the civil liberties of all UT students. This is an attack on anybody who’s trying to fight for the rights of oppressed groups in the United States and abroad.” Sameeha Rizvi, who graduated from UT Austin in December, stated, “It seemed to be a chance, once again, to just censor and stop students from being able to organize effectively, especially where the administration doesn’t want to listen.”
Ashley Scoggin, former Nebraska WBB player, sues over inappropriate relationship - Ashley Scoggin, a former guard for the Nebraska women's basketball team, has filed a civil lawsuit in U.S. District Court that alleges coach Amy Williams and athletic director Trev Alberts didn't take proper action after they found out about her sexual relationship with then-associate head coach Chuck Love.According to the suit, Love allegedly honed in on Scoggin, and eventually the relationship became sexual, which Scoggin said she was afraid to back out of for fear of retaliation if she refused to participateWilliams declined comment, and neither Alberts nor Love responded to requests for comments, the Associated Press reported.“It’s a very troubling and serious subject of predatory coaches that pursue sexual relationships with student-athletes,” Scoggin attorney Maren Chaloupka said Monday. “There’s an enormous imbalance of power between the professional coach and student-athletes. This is something that was well known in 2022.“Certainly Division I universities that operate at the top level are well aware of the harm that comes from this kind of a predatory situation, and there’s a strong onus on the university and on the coaches to prevent this from happening and, heaven forbid it does happen, to address [it] correctly.”On the same day that Love was suspended, with pay, in February 2022, Scoggin was dismissed from the Cornhuskers after two seasons. She now plays at UNLV, while Love resigned three months after his suspension.Scoggin's attorney filed the lawsuit on Sunday, and Nebraska said it became aware of it on Monday.“While the University does not comment on the specifics of pending litigation, it does not agree with the allegations contained in the complaint and intends to vigorously defend this matter,” Melissa Lee, a university spokeswoman, said in a statement.The lawsuit explained that the situation started in 2021 with Scoggin expressing interest in coaching someday, and Love presenting an opportunity for her to come under his wing. She sat at a small table in his office, and he allegedly began to ask her personal questions.Even though he was married, Scoggin said Love repeatedly asked her out on dates, which she declined. When she finally accepted one of his invitations, he allegedly kissed her in a parking lot and then asked her, “Have you ever done anything with a coach before?”It was at that point she said she understood that Love allegedly wanted a physical relationship, and this left Scoggin feeling trapped.A few months later, fellow teammates and male practice players created a trap for Scoggin and recorded her in Love's room. The video was presented to Williams, and chaos ensued.“Williams cast Ashley in the role of a seducer and a liar,” the lawsuit states. “She allowed the players to berate and accuse Ashley for hours. She did not redirect or counsel the players that what they had seen may be the result of an abuse of power by her associate head coach.”After this point, Scoggin said she wasn't made aware of her Title IX protections and was later told by Williams that she was off the team.
University of Florida becomes first public college student government to pass Green New Deal resolution --The University of Florida (UF) Student Senate passed a Green New Deal (GND) resolution Tuesday, with supporters saying they were the first public college in the country to do so. The five-volume resolution was passed unanimously and demanded the university take more action in combatting climate change on campus. The student government is calling for the university to implement the school’s Department of Sustainability climate plan, more transparency in investments that UF has in the private sector, the cutting off of any additional funding from the fossil fuel industry for research, divesting the school’s endowment from the fossil fuel industry and including groups in the plan that have been most impacted by climate change. “This is a momentous milestone for the climate movement. The unanimous passage of a first of its kind GND resolution by UF’s elected student government has now placed even more pressure on public universities to meet the moment by taking action on the greatest crisis of our time,” said Cameron Driggers, the executive director of Youth Action Fund and a student at UF. “The student body at the University of Florida has proven that bold climate solutions is not only possible at private institutions in liberal states, and it has also sharply rebuked the climate denialism of the DeSantis administration,” Driggers added, referring to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R).The resolution now moves on to the university’s governing board, which will vote on following through with the financial aspect of the mandate in a meeting in March, according to The Guardian.
More Young People Are on Multiple Psychiatric Drugs, Study Finds - Growing numbers of children and adolescents are being prescribed multiple psychiatric drugs to take simultaneously, according to a new study by researchers at the University of Maryland. The phenomenon is increasing despite warnings that psychotropic drug combinations in young people have not been tested for safety or studied for their impact on the developing brain. The study, published Friday in JAMA Open Network, looked at the prescribing patterns among patients 17 or younger enrolled in Medicaid from 2015 to 2020 in a single U.S. state that the researchers declined to name. In this group, there was a 9.5 percent increase in the prevalence of “polypharmacy,” which the study defined as taking three or more different classes of psychiatric medications, including antidepressants, mood-stabilizing anticonvulsants, sedatives and drugs for A.D.H.D. and anxiety drugs. The study looked at only one state, but state data have been used in the past to explore this issue, in part because of the relative ease of gathering data from Medicaid, the health insurance program administered by states.At the same time, some research using nationally weighted samples have revealed the increasing prevalence of polypharmacy among young people. One recent paper drew data from the National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey and found that in 2015, 40.7 percent of people aged 2 to 24 in the United States who took a medication for A.D.H.D. also took a second psychiatric drug. That figure had risen from 26 percent in 2006. The latest data from the University of Maryland researchers show that, at least in one state, the practice continues to grow and “was significantly more likely among youths who were disabled or in foster care,” the new study noted. Mental health experts said that psychotropic medications can prove very helpful and that doctors have discretion to prescribe what they see fit. A concern among some experts is that many drugs used in frequently prescribed cocktails have not been approved for use in young people. And it is unclear how the simultaneous use of multiple psychotropic medications affects brain development long-term. The latest study looked at data from 126,972 people over the study period. It found that in 2015, 4.2 percent of Medicaid enrollees under the age of 17 in Maryland had overlapping prescriptions of three or more different classes of psychiatric medications. That figure rose to 4.6 percent in 2020.The numbers were higher for those in foster care, where the prevalence of polypharmacy rose to 11.3 percent from 10.8 percent.“The findings emphasize the importance of monitoring the use of psychotropic combinations, particularly among vulnerable populations, such as youths enrolled in Medicaid who have a disability or are in foster care,” the study concluded.
How Alabama’s frozen embryo decision is shaking the nation: What you need to know. - Alabama’s Supreme Court has ruled that frozen embryos are people, the first time a court has ever given rights and protections so early after conception. The ruling is limited to Alabama, but it has far-reaching potential and seems poised to open a new front in the fight over reproductive rights in the country. Alabama has one of the strictest abortion laws in the nation, and advocates and legal experts worry it could show a path forward for the “personhood” movement in other conservative states. The Alabama Supreme Court’s decision found that embryos and fertilized eggs are considered children under the Alabama Wrongful Death of a Minor Act, even if they have not been implanted in a uterus. “Unborn children are ‘children’ under the Act, without exception based on developmental stage, physical location, or any other ancillary characteristics,” Alabama Supreme Court Justice Jay Mitchell wrote for the majority. Fertility experts said the new legal standard upends how in vitro fertilization (IVF) is practiced and left far more questions than answers. IVF in Alabama could become much more expensive and inaccessible. But it is not illegal. “The goal of IVF is to have a healthy pregnancy with a single baby, and that requires creating enough embryos [to] give the best chance of pregnancy,” said Betsy Campbell, chief engagement officer at RESOLVE: The National Infertility Association. Campbell said there is no roadmap on how to proceed, but the ruling “definitely could make it impossible to perform IVF to the standard that has been honed over the last 40 years.” In a concurring opinion that quoted heavily from the Bible, Chief Justice Tom Parker said IVF will look different but won’t end in Alabama. Parker said it will be up to the courts to dictate how IVF can be performed in a way that won’t cause harm to unborn children and won’t incur the “wrath of an angry God.” “Even before birth, all human beings have the image of God, and their lives cannot be destroyed without effacing his glory,” Parker wrote. He suggested freezing embryos may no longer be allowed, and that doctors must create one embryo at a time and then implant it, no matter the quality. At least one facility has already paused IVF treatment The University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB) health system — the largest in the state — said it is pausing all IVF treatments for fear of lawsuits and criminal prosecution. “We are saddened that this will impact our patients’ attempt to have a baby through IVF, but we must evaluate the potential that our patients and our physicians could be prosecuted criminally or face punitive damages for following the standard of care for IVF treatments,” a spokesperson for the health system said. Advocates said they have no answers for patients who may be wanting to start IVF, those who are midcycle or those with frozen embryos. According to UAB, egg fertilization and embryo development is paused, but the process will continue up through egg retrieval. During IVF, a patient self-administers hormone injections over about two to three weeks. An egg, or several eggs, is surgically removed from the ovary and fertilized within a laboratory environment. The fertilized egg, now considered an embryo, is then implanted into the uterus or frozen for later use. Standard IVF practice is to also freeze any embryos that are not implanted right away. According to Johns Hopkins Medicine, embryos can be safely preserved for 10 years or longer. In a brief filed prior to the decision, the Alabama Medical Association warned the court against creating an “enormous potential for civil liability” for fertility doctors. Sean Tipton, chief advocacy and policy officer for the American Society for Reproductive Medicine (ASRM), said he expects more clinics to pause as lawyers try to figure out the full implications of the ruling. “Modern fertility care will be unavailable to the people of Alabama, needlessly blocking them from building the families they want,” said ASRM President Paula Amato.
Winter COVID wave of mass infection continues across the US --After a massive peak of COVID-19 infections that reached its zenith on New Year’s Eve, by nearly all accounts, the winter wave was expected to recede and inaugurate another lull in infections, at least until population immunity began to wane again and a new variant was discovered to outdo its predecessors in terms of contagiousness and immune-evasiveness.Yet, before January was through, national wastewater concentration of SARS-CoV-2 began to climb once again from the low of 812 copies per milliliters and has continued to rise by 14 percent to 929 copies per milliliters on February 19. When one reviews the wastewater data throughout the pandemic, the usual trend is for a rapid decline after the holiday peaks, with cases rapidly plummeting in February and March, but this pattern has yet to materialize.Dr. Mike Hoerger, PhD, from Tulane University, who opened the Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative to address the physical and emotional burden of the COVID-19 pandemic, has been modeling the national wastewater concentration data released weekly by Biobot to estimate daily COVID-19 infection rates in the US. In response to Monday’s update from Biobot, he noted on his social media that the US remains in a prolonged high-transmission COVID surge.Hoerger added, “Bad news: levels are still rising. Historically, February is marked by a rapid decline in transmission. [The] 929 copies/mL corresponds to 1.35 million infections per day.” Furthermore, his model estimates that around 2.7 percent of the population is actively infectious with possibly 60,000 people expected to develop Long COVID each day. To place these figures into context, Hoerger noted, “Relative to the full pandemic, transmission remains higher today than during about 86 percent of the pandemic … The present ‘post-surge hill’ of transmission are higher than the 5th, 6th, 7th, and 8th largest waves in the US in its own right.”He noted that these estimates remain within their margin of error, implying that given the lack of any national mitigation efforts, these are not unexpected. “The take-home is that we’re in extremely high sustained transmission, hopefully plateauing, and with an updated post-surge hill peak transmission of somewhere between February 7 and February 21,” or precisely today.For the next several weeks, rates of COVID infections across the US will remain alarmingly high and only expected to halve within the next four weeks. However, if next week’s Biobot report indicates that levels continue to rise above 1,000 copies per milliliter, Hoeger called this a very bad sign and “model-defying in fact.”Since August 26, 2023, weekly COVID-19 deaths have remained above 1,000 and over 2,000 per week since December 30, 2023. For the week ending January 20, another 2,152 people died from this preventable disease. Given the sudden upturn in COVID-19 infections, these levels of death will most likely also be sustained in the weeks ahead, with the full level of excess deaths only ascertainable months down the line.The current February phenomenon of prolonged high transmission of COVID-19 infections is a byproduct of ending the pandemic emergency declaration. Presently, COVID-19 vaccination rates are abysmal for every age category. Masking has become non-existent. Testing, isolating and quarantining have essentially been abandoned. And the promises to implement and enforce indoor air cleaning have failed to materialize.California and Oregon have already implemented rules that tell infected workers and students that as long as they are asymptomatic or fever-free for at least 24 hours they can go about their lives, regardless of the risk they pose to others that include the elderly, infirm and immunocompromised. The misnamed Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said last week that they would follow suit and scrap their current guidelines that encourage infected people to isolate for five days and avoid transmitting the virus to others.
New study links COVID-19 vaccine to possible health issues — A new study discovered possible links between the COVID-19 pandemic and possible neurological, blood and heart-related conditions. The new study, published in Vaccine, is the largest study of its kind since the pandemic began and could reignite the debate over the risks and benefits of the vaccine. Over the past three years, more than 13.5 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines have been administered around the world. The World Health Organization recently announced that vaccination has saved at least a million and a half lives in Europe alone. The study links vaccines to slight increases in neurological, blood and heart-related conditions such as myocarditis, pericarditis and Guillain-Barre syndrome. Researchers stressed that an association between the vaccine and adverse side effects does not prove the vaccine caused them and that side effects were rare. Of the more than 99 million people studied, researchers observed 190 cases of Guillian-Barre Syndrome, which is typically developed after a viral infection but has also been linked to vaccines in rare cases, and 69 cases of hematological conditions. COVID-19 itself can also cause side effects that affect the heart, including myocarditis. Those who have experienced side effects include 24-year-old George Watts, Jr. of New York, a healthy college student who died of vaccine-related myocarditis two years ago. The condition is listed as a possible side effect of the Pfizer vaccine.There has been partisan fighting for years, with Republicans objecting to vaccine mandates and saying the vaccine was rushed to market while Democrats pushed for mandates in the name of public health for Americans overall. Since the pandemic began in March 2020, nearly seven million people have died globally from COVID-19, including more than one million Americans.
Global study quantifies rise in blood clots, heart inflammation following COVID-19 vaccination - The Hindu -- One of the largest assessments of its kind, spanning 99 million people and investigating reports of adverse reactions following COVID-19 vaccination, found that instances of Guillain Barre Syndrome, myocarditis, pericarditis and cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST) were at least 1.5 times more than expected following inoculation with mRNA and ChadOX1 vaccines. This is in line with previous observations by the World Health Organization and the European Medicines Agency, and was what led to these being classified as ‘rare’ side effects following the vaccination for COVID-19.The data set did not include patients from India. However, a majority of Indians were administered the ChAdOX1 or Covishield vaccines during the pandemic. The need for rapid development and administration of vaccines saw a range of new approaches to vaccination, namely, the use of synthetic viral particles or protein constructs being administered following shortened testing programmes. Guillain-Barre syndrome is a disorder in which the immune system attacks the nerves. While rarely fatal, it can cause muscular damage and mean prolonged treatment. CVST refers to blood clots in the brain. Myocarditis and pericarditis are inflammation of the heart tissue. All of these are serious conditions and potentially fatal.The Global Covid Vaccine Safety Project, which made the assessment, compiled electronic healthcare data on adverse events related to COVID-19 vaccines from participants across multiple sites, including Argentina, New South Wales and Victoria in Australia, British Columbia and Ontario in Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, New Zealand, and Scotland.One of the largest assessments of its kind, spanning 99 million people and investigating reports of adverse reactions following COVID-19 vaccination, found that instances of Guillain Barre Syndrome, myocarditis, pericarditis and cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST) were at least 1.5 times more than expected following inoculation with mRNA and ChadOX1 vaccines. This is in line with previous observations by the World Health Organization and the European Medicines Agency, and was what led to these being classified as ‘rare’ side effects following the vaccination for COVID-19.The data set did not include patients from India. However, a majority of Indians were administered the ChAdOX1 or Covishield vaccines during the pandemic. The need for rapid development and administration of vaccines saw a range of new approaches to vaccination, namely, the use of synthetic viral particles or protein constructs being administered following shortened testing programmes. Guillain-Barre syndrome is a disorder in which the immune system attacks the nerves. While rarely fatal, it can cause muscular damage and mean prolonged treatment. CVST refers to blood clots in the brain. Myocarditis and pericarditis are inflammation of the heart tissue. All of these are serious conditions and potentially fatal. The Global Covid Vaccine Safety Project, which made the assessment, compiled electronic healthcare data on adverse events related to COVID-19 vaccines from participants across multiple sites, including Argentina, New South Wales and Victoria in Australia, British Columbia and Ontario in Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, New Zealand, and Scotland.As of December 6, 2022 a total of 92,003 Adverse Events Following Immunisation (AEFI) have been reported in India since the start of the COVID-19 vaccination, the Union Health Ministry told Parliament. This is about 0.009% of Indians who took COVID-19 vaccines. An affidavit by the government to the Supreme Court claimed that compared with India, nearly 0.2% of the people in the United States who received COVID-19 vaccines showed AEFI, as did 0.7% in the U.K.
Largest multicountry COVID study links vaccines to potential adverse effects A new study on COVID-19 vaccines that looked at nearly 100 million vaccinated individuals affirmed the vaccines’ previously observed links to increased risks for certain adverse effects including myocarditis and Guillain-Barré syndrome.The researchers noted in their analysis that COVID-19 infections have consistently been found to be more likely to cause the conditions observed in this study than vaccinations, adding that factor should be considered when weight the risk-to-benefit ratio of immunization.The study was conducted by the Global COVID Vaccine Safety project and took into account 99,068,901 vaccinated individuals across eight countries: Argentina, Australia, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, New Zealand and Scotland.The report specifically looked at adverse events following administration of the Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca vaccines.The researchers looked for 13 adverse events of special interest that occurred in vaccine recipients for up to 42 days after shots were administered. These conditions included Guillain-Barré syndrome, Bell’s palsy, convulsions, myocarditis and pericarditis.Researchers observed a “significant increase” in cases of Guillain-Barré syndrome among those who received the AstraZeneca vaccine with 42 days of administration.They also noted higher-than-expected instances of acute disseminated encephalomyelitis (ADEM), inflammation of the brain and spinal cord, among those who received their first dose of Moderna’s vaccine.However, the study noted that when it came to ADEM there was “no consistent pattern in terms of vaccine or timing following vaccination, and larger epidemiological studies have not confirmed any potential association.”Both mRNA vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna were associated with instances of myocarditis, inflammation of the heart muscle, which occurred more than was expected in the study, with the condition having a significant observed-to-expected ratio consistently after the first, second and third doses.Significantly higher than expected cases of pericarditis, inflammation of the sac-like structure that surrounds the heart, were also observed following first and fourth doses of Moderna’s vaccine.“The safety signals identified in this study should be evaluated in the context of their rarity, severity, and clinical relevance,” the researchers wrote.“Moreover, overall risk–benefit evaluations of vaccination should take the risk associated with infection into account, as multiple studies demonstrated higher risk of developing the events under study, such as GBS, myocarditis, or ADEM, following SARS-CoV-2 infection than vaccination.”The Global COVID Vaccine Safety project is supported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Department of Health and Human Services. Several of the authors received financial support from or have relationships with government agencies including the CDC, the New Zealand Ministry of Health and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, which they disclosed as potential conflicts of interest. Several of the researchers also reported having relationships or having previously received payments from biopharmaceutical companies Gilead Sciences Inc., AbbVie Inc., Pfizer and GlaxoSmithKline.
US Officials Concede No Active Surveillance On Long-Term Effects Of COVID-19 Vaccines In a Feb. 15 hearing by the Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic, U.S. health officials side-stepped a question when asked whether the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is actively conducting extended safety surveillance on those who received early COVID-19 vaccines. Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.) asked Dr. Peter Marks, director of the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, whether the FDA is conducting active surveillance and if there are any specific health markers they’re studying that may signal trends requiring further inquiry. “Every time we go through and do the safety surveillance, we start back, and it goes back to 2020. In some cases where we’re looking for certain things, we might use a different window, but indeed, we have to look from the beginning of the period of surveillance. I can turn it over to Dr. Jernigan because he can speak for CDC [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] in that regard,” Dr. Marks said. “So with regard to myocarditis, we certainly have been monitoring the issue with various different data systems. I think the most recent data really demonstrates that you’re about eight times less likely to get myocarditis if you’re vaccinated compared to those that are unvaccinated,” Dr. Daniel Jernigan, director of the National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases at the CDC responded. Rep. Malliotakis told Jernigan she wanted to know about “everything,” not just myocarditis. Dr. Jerrigan asked her to repeat the question, and she asked again whether the FDA was conducting extended safety surveillance on early recipients of COVID-19 vaccines. “Most of the reports that we get of adverse events are in the few weeks following the vaccination,” Jernigan said. In terms of monitoring these over time, Jernigan said the agency has “vaccine effectiveness” systems in place at the CDC. Neither Jernigan nor Marks referenced any active surveillance initiatives being undertaken by their agencies to monitor people who received the original COVID-19 vaccines for long-term health effects. “There is no system in place for long-term vaccine safety surveillance in this country,”
COVID vaccine mandates may have had unintended consequences, researchers say -US state COVID-19 vaccine mandates didn't significantly change uptake, and states with mandates actually had lower COVID-19 booster and voluntary adult and child flu vaccine coverage than those that banned vaccine requirements, an analysis of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data suggests.Researchers from the University of Arizona at Tucson and Furman University in South Carolina parsed the data to identify changes in COVID-19 vaccination rates and COVID-19 boosters and seasonal flu vaccines in the 2 months before and after implementation of state-level mandates for targeted groups (eg, state employees). Baseline attitudes were collected before the vaccine rollout as part of the COVID States Project. In the 19 states with COVID-19 vaccine mandates, weekly COVID-19 vaccination rates weren't statistically significantly different before and after mandate implementation, and the difference in vaccination rates from before to after mandates didn't depend on baseline attitudes toward the requirements. The authors noted that the analysis wasn't sufficiently powered to detect small effects.A series of multilevel models were tested to compare state-level differences in weekly COVID-19 booster uptake from rollout in November 2021 to May 2022 in mandate states and in the 22 states that outlawed such mandates. The results suggested that the percentage of eligible residents who received a booster was smaller in mandate states than in those that banned mandates. The difference was greater among states with lower vaccination levels..An examination of two CDC datasets on state-level flu vaccination among adults and children in the 2021-22 flu season showed that both adults and children in mandate states were less likely to receive the flu vaccine than those in states with mandate bans."This research supports the notion that governmental restrictions in the form of vaccination mandates can have unintended negative consequences, not necessarily by reducing uptake of the mandated vaccine, but by reducing adoption of other voluntary vaccines," the study authors wrote. "More broadly, the results underscore the challenges of promoting public health through vaccination."
Researchers identify mechanism behind brain fog in long COVID Disruptions in the blood-brain barrier along with a hyperactive immune system are the likely mechanisms behind "brain fog" in patients who are experiencing long COVID, an Irish research team reported today in Nature Neuroscience.Brain fog has been reported during acute COVID infection and has also been reported in nearly 50% of patients who experience long COVID, or symptoms well past the acute phase of COVID-19.The blood-brain barrier disruption mechanism was suspected before, but to test the connection, the group first analyzed blood samples to look for any biomarker differences between those who did and didn't report brain fog. They examined blood samples from 76 patients who were hospitalized with acute COVID in early 2020, comparing findings with pre-pandemic samples from 25 other patients to look for any differences in coagulation patterns and immune response.Those who reported brain fog had higher levels of a protein (S100β) produced by brain cells not normally found in the blood, which hinted at a "leaky" blood-brain barrier.For the second part of the study, the researchers conducted brain scans using dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI to examine brain circulation in 11 people who had recovered from COVID and 22 who had long COVID, which included 11 people who reported brain fog. They found that long-COVID patients with brain fog had a leaky blood-brain barrier when compared to other long COVID patients and to others who had recovered.The group's experiments also found that long-COVID patients with brain fog had increased levels of clotting markers in their blood.Matthew Campbell, PhD, one of the study coauthors, said in a Trinity College Dublin press release that the findings show for the first time that leaky vessels in the brain along with a hyperactive immune system may be the key drivers of brain fog in people experiencing long COVID."This is critically important, as understanding the underlying cause of these conditions will allow us to develop targeted therapies for patients in the future," he said. Campbell is a genetics professor at Trinity College. The findings will likely change the understanding and treatment of post-viral neurologic conditions, said Colin Doherty, MD, a study coauthor who is a neurology professor and head of the school of medicine at Trinity College. "It also confirms that the neurological symptoms of Long Covid are measurable with real and demonstrable metabolic and vascular changes in the brain," he added. Campbell concluded, "The concept that many other viral infections that lead to post-viral syndromes might drive blood vessel leakage in the brain is potentially game changing and is under active investigation by the team."
Study gives insight into post-exertional malaise in Long COVID patients -A new study on Long COVID provides insights into one of its most common and debilitating symptoms, post-exertional malaise (PEM), which occurs when patients experience a worsening of many or all their other Long COVID symptoms after even minor physical or mental activity. Specifically, the study provides evidence for some hypotheses for how SARS-CoV-2 infection causes the disorder, and evidence against other hypotheses.Most commonly, fatigue is worsened by PEM, often becoming incapacitating to the point that patients can barely function in their daily activities. Many hypotheses have been put forward for how SARS-CoV-2 infection results in PEM. They include persistence of the virus in the body, dysfunction of mitochondria, systemic inflammation, immune-system abnormalities, hormonal imbalances, and low blood flow to muscles with subsequent hypoxia.With respect to the hypoxia hypothesis, the concern is that amyloid proteins get deposited in blood vessels. This buildup would then obstruct blood flow to the muscles.Amyloid proteins are long fibers formed from normal cellular proteins, and often form when cells produce an unusually large quantity of a particular protein. They are most commonly associated with Alzheimer’s disease, but amyloid can accumulate in any organ and cause disease. The researchers designed the study to address all the aforementioned hypotheses of PEM. Each patient was diagnosed by two expert physicians using World Health Organization (WHO) criteria for the disorder. The physicians also ruled out other causes of their symptoms and ensured the patients did not have symptoms prior to COVID. Furthermore, their post-exertional malaise was confirmed by their responses to the DePaul Symptom Questionnaire for Post-Exertional Malaise (DSQ-PEM).Notably, PEM is a symptom of other disorders beyond Long COVID, especially myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS). Researchers studying these disorders developed and validated the DSQ-PEM prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Thus the DSQ-PEM has a history of accurately differentiating patients with and without PEM regardless of cause. Prior Long COVID studies have used it as well. The study found that Long COVID patients had substantially lower power output and VO2max on exercise testing. VO2max is a measurement of the amount of oxygen an individual’s body can utilize during maximal levels of exercise. It is considered the best indicator of endurance. The lower VO2max in patients was not explained by failure to reach maximal effort as indicated by multiple physiological and biological parameters measured during the exercise test.
Study shows persistent COVID-19 infections fairly common -- Researchers at the University of Oxford published new findings yesterday in Nature suggesting as many as 1 to 3 out of every 100 COVID-19 infections in the United Kingdom persist longer than 30 days, and patients with persistent infections are 55% more likely to report developing long COVID. Persistent infections have long been a concern to COVID-19 researchers, because people with prolonged infections tend to display a high number of viral mutations, making them reservoirs of new variants. Previously, this concern focused on immunocompromised patients, but the new study suggests these types of long infections may be more common than previously thought.The study was based on 3,603 participants who provided two or more positive viral samples for genomic sequencing from November 2020 through August 2022 as part of the Office for National Statistics COVID Infection Survey (ONS-CIS). The two positive tests to define persistent infections had to be taken at least 26 days apart.Of the participants, 381 had persistent infections, testing positive with the same virus for 30 days or longer, and 54 individuals had a persistent infection that lasted at least 2 months.Of the persistent infections, 11 were caused by the Alpha variant, 106 Delta, 97 BA.1 and 167 BA.2—the last two of which are Omicron subtypes. Of note, the authors said, was one persistent BA.1 infection that lasted for at least 133 days, during which time 33 unique mutations were documented.In about 30% of the persistent infections, researchers noted rebounding viral dynamics in patient samples, showing high, low, then high again viral load dynamics."In the absence of genetic information, they could have been misidentified as reinfections, depending on the definition used," the authors wrote.All study participants were asked about self-reported long COVID symptoms, or symptoms that lasted 3 months after initial infections. In the persistent infection group, 9% of respondents (32 of 356) self-reported long COVID at their first visit 12 weeks or longer since the start of infection, and 5.8% (19 of 326) reported long COVID at 26 weeks or longer, the authors said.In the participants with non-persistent infections, only 5.4% (4,291 of 78,902) reported long COVID at their first visit 12 weeks or longer, and 4.1% (3,000 of 72,608) reported long COVID at 26 weeks or longer. "Although the link between viral persistence and long COVID may not be causal, these results suggest persistent infections could be contributing to the pathophysiology of Long COVID," said co-author Katrina Lythgoe, PhD, in a University of Oxford press release. "Indeed, many other possible mechanisms have been suggested to contribute to Long COVID, including inflammation, organ damage, and micro thrombosis."
US study: Disparities in death rates persist after acute phase of pandemic -A new research letter in JAMA Network Open demonstrates that pre-COVID disparities in all-cause mortality have largely persisted after the acute phase of the pandemic, as patterns have largely returned to baseline.The study examined annualized age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) among major demographic groups in the United States from March 2018 through May 2023. Sex, race and ethnicity, metropolitan status, and region were all considered.The authors compared mortality ratios between four periods: One year prior to the pandemic, the first and second years of the pandemic (before and after widespread vaccination), and the post-acute Omicron-dominant phase of the pandemic.During the pandemic, mortality rates increased significantly for men, people of color, non-urban residents, and people in the South and West. In almost all groups, levels returned to prepandemic levels by fourth period analyzed. However, the authors said a notable change was that American Indian or Alaska Native ASDRs compared to White mortality was 1.02 (1.01-1.03) to 1.20 (1.18-1.21) or higher in both acute pandemic years."Death rate ratios during the postacute period generally returned to prepandemic levels," the authors said. "Although mortality remains somewhat higher than before the pandemic, this additional mortality is largely proportional to 2018-2019 mortality with respect to major demographic comparisons."This continuity suggests that these disparities are persistent; even a pandemic-level mortality shock does not permanently alter them."
Data analyst Greg Travis speaks on COVID pandemic-related excess deaths in the US - One of the critical byproducts of the “forever COVID” policies implemented by the ruling elites, abandoning any fight against the pandemic and even dismantling monitoring of COVID cases by public health agencies, has been the emergence of a layer of principled health care experts, data analysts, and researchers who are providing real-time information on the actual state of the pandemic.The COVID-19 infection trackers maintained by Dr. Mike Hoerger and data scientist Jay Weiland, with modeling based on wastewater levels of SARS-CoV-2, have documented the massive scale of infections that have been sweeping across the United States and the rest of the world. Their weekly reports underscore the continuing high rates of daily infections, giving a glimpse into the public health catastrophe that is taking place under a complete media blackout of the pandemic. Viral sleuths like Ryan Hisner, Raj Rajnarayanan and others have turned to their social media channels which function as information hubs to accumulate information on the latest subvariants and their mutations. Many of their initial reports, such as on Pirola in August and then JN.1 in September 2023, were critical in giving the world a substantive alert on the massive wave of infections that has since washed over the globe, while national public agencies like the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) were taking pains to cover up these developments. Health care expert and data analyst Greg Travis has been maintaining the only excess death tracker available to the public, meticulously documenting the clinical and, by extension, the societal impact of the ongoing pandemic in the US. Not only do his charts and graphs cover nearly every category of death—all cause, deaths with disease, cardiovascular, cancer, COVID, influenza, suicide, and others—but the data is sub-categorized by state, region, and age categories, including year and month of death. The data for these plots and figures has been extracted from the WONDER database of death certificates submitted by individual states to the CDC. In a real sense, his analysis provides graphic evidence of the real impact of the ruling elite’s criminal pandemic policies on the health and well-being of Americans.Travis is highly critical of CDC and public health leadership that have systematically covered up the pandemic at the behest of the ruling elites. He has used his social media platform to highlight the devastation wrought by the SARS-CoV-2 virus and expose the policies that have sought to normalize mass infection and death. For instance, his recent February 15 Twitter (now X) post shows there were over 2,400 excess deaths among children during the pandemic attributable to COVID. In the same period, just 578 children died of influenza (CDC Wonder data). With respect to all ages, the pre-pandemic baseline for annual influenza deaths stood at around 8,300 per year from 2015 to 2020. For the 2021 flu season, the figure dropped to around 1,000 deaths mostly because of the initial response to the COVID pandemic, which saw widespread masking, remote learning in schools, and isolation and quarantine recommendations. However, by 2022 the CDC had ended many of the restrictions, and the baseline for annual flu deaths climbed back to pre-pandemic baselines. Meanwhile, COVID killed 246,000 people in 2022 and another 77,000 in 2023, a figure nearly ten times higher than the flu. Most of these deaths occurred among the elderly. The corporate media has toed the line and maintained a complete silence on the implication of these figures. The recent report written by Travis in collaboration with Arijit Chakravarty, scientist and CEO of Fractal Therapeutics, on How to Hide the Pandemic, provides needed context on the methods employed by the CDC and public health agencies to minimize the threat posed by the pandemic. It amounts to a public health alert on the dangers posed by such agencies charged with protecting the public, in the present terminal state of capitalism. Indeed, it underscores the analysis made by the World Socialist Web Site that the CDC is a pillar of the state apparatus. Earlier this month, we spoke with Greg Travis on the state of the pandemic in the US and the information provided by his tracker on the impact of COVID on the population. Travis explained that based on death certificate reports, during the initial 2023/2024 winter wave of COVID there were around 6,000 COVID deaths from September through November. In December, the figures jumped to above 8,000 and he expected that in January they will reach 10,000.
WHO reports 4 more MERS cases from Saudi Arabia -- Saudi Arabia has reported four more MERS-CoV cases, all in people whose symptoms began in the latter months of 2023, the World Health Organization (WHO) said in a February 16 update.ccThe cases, two of which were fatal, were confirmed between October 10 and November 16. The patients are from three different regions: Riyadh, Eastern, and Qassim. Two were men, and two were women. All had underlying health conditions, and none were health workers.One patient was a camel owner, while another had a history of indirect contact with camels. Exposure to the virus hasn't been determined for the other two patients, and none of the patients had consumed raw camel milk before their symptoms began. The WHO said there are no epidemiologic links between any of the patients, and no secondary cases were found.The WHO said MERS-CoV cases have declined substantially since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. It said reasons could include public health actions prioritizing COVID-19 case detections or COVID-19 mitigation actions such as masking and physical distancing, which could reduce human-to-human transmission.The group also said it's possible that cross-protection from COVID-19 infection or vaccination may be playing a role. However, the WHO added that the hypothesis requires further investigation.The newly reported cases lift Saudi Arabia's number of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) to 2,200, which includes 858 deaths. The WHO said the cases don't change its risk assessment, which remains at moderate globally and regionally. It said more cases are expected from Saudi Arabia and other countries where the virus circulates in dromedary camels.
Deadly MERS-CoV Outbreak Strikes Again in Saudi Arabia, WHO Alerts - Deadly MERS-CoV Outbreak Strikes Again in Saudi Arabia, WHO Alerts The World Health Organization (WHO) has issued an urgent warning following the resurgence of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in Saudi Arabia. This alert comes after the confirmation of four new cases, including two tragic fatalities, marking a concerning spike in the virus's activity since its first ominous appearance in 2012. The recent surge underscores the critical importance of maintaining a respectful and cautious distance from wildlife, especially in regions where MERS-CoV has previously reared its head. In the shadow of modern pandemics, an old nemesis resurfaces, reminding us of its deadly grip. The World Health Organization (WHO) has issued an urgent warning following the resurgence of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in Saudi Arabia. This alert comes after the confirmation of four new cases, including two tragic fatalities, marking a concerning spike in the virus's activity since its first ominous appearance in 2012. Among the affected, a camel owner and another with indirect contact to these animals, spotlighting the zoonotic bridge that MERS-CoV hauntingly embodies.Between the sun-scorched sands of Riyadh, Eastern, and Qassim regions, four individuals have succumbed to the clutches of MERS-CoV. Documented meticulously from August 13, 2023, to February 1, 2024, with the most recent case on October 26, 2023, these instances serve as a grim reminder of the virus's tenacity. The real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) technique, a beacon of modern virology, confirmed the diagnoses, shedding light on a pathogen that lurks in the shadows of our interaction with the natural world. The victims, two men and two women, bore the burden of pre-existing health conditions, a factor that amplified their vulnerability to the virus's ruthless efficiency.The thread that weaves through the narrative of MERS-CoV is its zoonotic origin. The natural hosts, dromedary camels, serve as vessels for the virus, bridging the gap to the human population. This connection was starkly illustrated by one of the victims' direct involvement with these animals, and another's indirect exposure. Such cases underline the critical importance of maintaining a respectful and cautious distance from wildlife, especially in regions where MERS-CoV has previously reared its head. The UK's Health and Security Agency's updated guidance in June 2023 echoes this sentiment, advising travelers to the Kingdom to avoid contact with camels and steer clear of raw camel milk, aiming to stifle the virus's transmission routes. Since its detection in Saudi Arabia over a decade ago, MERS-CoV has sketched a grim tally, with 2,200 cases and 858 deaths reported within the country and 2,609 cases and 939 deaths globally. These numbers are not just statistics but represent lives, families, and communities disrupted by the virus's wrath. The WHO's continuous monitoring of the situation underscores the global vigilance required to confront such infectious diseases. The advisory for those in close contact with dromedaries is clear: regular handwashing, avoiding contact with sick animals, and adhering to general hygiene practices are simple yet effective measures that can save lives.
Flu remains elevated in the Northern Hemisphere -- Flu activity remains elevated in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere, though detections have declined at the global level, the World Health Organization (WHO) said in its latest update, which roughly covers the last week of January and the first days of February.Hot spots include parts of Europe and Central Asia, with very high activity reported from Russia and Slovakia. The 2009 H1N1 virus is dominant, and hospitalizations are elevated but stable. In North America, flu levels are still elevated, with slight influenza B rises in the United States and Canada.China's flu activity is elevated but declining in both the northern and southern provinces, with most detections involving influenza B. Hong Kong's flu hospitalizations are still above the seasonal threshold.South East Asia's flu activity showed an overall increase, especially in Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. In Western Asia, flu activity rose in Armenia, Georgia, Israel, and Turkey. Flu remained stable in parts of tropical Asia, but with rises in the Maldives and Nepal.In Africa, flu detections rose in some western nations, including Mauritania and Niger, and rose slightly in Cameroon. Globally, of respiratory samples that were positive for flu at national flu labs during the reporting period, 78.9% were influenza A, and of subtyped influenza A viruses, 54.8% were H3N2. All influenza B viruses belonged to the Victoria lineage.
US flu levels stubbornly high as COVID declines further - Flu levels remain elevated, with increases in half of US regions, as COVID-19 and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) levels stayed on downward trends, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said today in its latest weekly updates.Though the national test positivity declined a bit, to 14.8% of respiratory virus samples, the percentage of outpatient visits for flulike illness held steady at 4.5%, the CDC said in its weekly FluView update.Regional patterns, though, show a mixed picture, with five regions—the Northeast, New England, the Middle Atlantic, the Midwest, and the Central states—experiencing increased activity last week. Test positivity also varied by region, with higher levels in the Northeast, Middle Atlantic, and Central regions. Influenza B activity, which often rises in the later flu season months, stayed level last week. Of respiratory samples that tested positive for flu at public health labs last week, 71.7% were influenza A and 28.3% were influenza B. Of subtyped flu A samples, 51.3% were the 2009 H1N1 strain and 48.7% were H3N2.Hospitalization indicators remained stable and have been decreasing since the first of the year, the CDC said.Overall deaths from flu rose last week, and the CDC received reports of 9 more pediatric flu deaths, raising the season's total to 91. The deaths occurred between November and the first weeks of February. Five were linked to the H1N1 virus, and four were related to influenza B.In its latest data updates today, the CDC said both severity markers for COVID—hospitalizations and deaths—declined last week. Hospitalizations remain elevated in seniors and infants ages 12 months and younger. Early indicators also show downward trends, with the nation's test positivity rate at 8.1%. The rate is a bit higher in the southeast than in other parts of the country. Also, emergency department visits declined 12.4% from the previous week.Wastewater SARS-CoV-2 detections, another early signal, remained high. For the week ending February 17, detections are much higher in the southern region than in the rest of the country. Meanwhile, RSV levels continue to decline in many areas, and hospitalizations levels are dropping for both infants and seniors, the CDC said in its weekly respiratory virus snapshot.Deaths from RSV remained stable.
Birth-month study shows importance of timing for flu shot - Children born in October and vaccinated against influenza in that month are both more likely to be vaccinated against flu and less likely to be diagnosed as having influenza than children born in other months, according to a new study The BMJ. The observational study is based on insurance records of 800,000 US children ages 2 to 5 years old who received flu vaccines from 2011 to 2018. Researchers analyzed rates of diagnosed influenza among children by birth month, and found that those with October birthdays had the lowest rates. US children typically visit pediatricians around their birthday each year for well-check visits and routine vaccinations, and children who visit in October were likely offered the seasonal flu shot as it was available. The seasonal shot would not likely be ready for children with spring and summer birthdays, the authors said. October flu vaccinations were greater in children with October births compared with other birth months, with 48.9% of children born in October were vaccinated in October, compared with 34.0% of children born in August, 40.2% of those born in September, 27.3% of those born in November, and 33.7% of those born in December. The authors found that 2.7% of children born and vaccinated in October were diagnosed as having flu that season. The percentage rose to 3.0% of those born and vaccinated in August or January, 2.9% of those born and vaccinated in September or December, and 2.8% of those born and vaccinated in November. This suggests October maybe the optimal time to be vaccinated against the flu."Under the assumption that children born in October are otherwise similar to children born in other months, our findings suggest that the specific timing of influenza vaccination among children born in October may lead to lower rates of influenza infection," the authors concluded.
‘Norovirus’ slams Northeast US hardest in recent weeks: CDC - A stomach virus known as the norovirus is spreading across the Northeast region of the United States, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The three-week average positive tests for norovirus in the region reached 13.9 percent in recent weeks and held above a 10 percent positive rate since the middle of December 2023. While the Northeast is experiencing a high number of positive norovirus cases, CDC data showthat other regions are seeing positive tests in recent weeks too. The South has 9.5 percent, the Midwest has hovered around 10 percent and the West has about 12 percent. Norovirus is the leading cause of vomiting and diarrhea and foodborne illness in the United States, the CDC said. People of all ages can become infected and the illness spreads “very easily and quickly.” The CDC said that people can contract norovirus many times in their lifetime because there are many different types of the virus. Becoming infected with “one type of norovirus may not protect you against other types,” the advisory said. People may develop protection against specific types of norovirus, but it’s not known how long a protection may last. Outbreaks occur most frequently during late fall, winter and early spring. Symptoms also include fever, headache, dehydration and body aches. The CDC recommends washing your hands well with soap and water, cleaning and disinfecting surfaces with bleach, and washing laundry with hot water to prevent the spread of norovirus. There are 19 to 21 million illnesses in the U.S. due to norovirus each year, most commonly between November and April. There are about 109,000 hospitalizations each year and 900 deaths, most commonly among older adults, the CDC said.
Florida's school measles cluster grows; Ohio and Washington report cases --Over the past few days, three more measles cases have been reported at an elementary school in Broward County, Florida, raising the total to six, according to local media reports citing school district officials. Earlier in the week, the Florida Department of Health in Broward County said it is investigating several cases at an elementary school in Weston, Florida, located about 20 miles west of Fort Lauderdale. It said those at risk include those who haven't received the full measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine series and those who are immunocompromised. The agency said it is identifying susceptible contacts who may be candidates for MMR or immunoglobulin post-exposure prophylaxis (prevention).The district said 92% of students at the school have been vaccinated against measles and that they will be offering free MMR vaccination at the school this week for students and families.District officials said any decisions to temporarily close the school would be made by the state of Florida. A widely circulated letter posted by the media and on social media from Florida Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo, MD, PhD, said it is normally recommended children without immunity stay home until the end of the infectious period, due to high likelihood of infection.He said, however, that, owing to high immunity rate in the community and the hardship it would place on families to close the school, officials are deferring to parents regarding school attendance. His recommendation has raised alarm in the public health community.Ladapo said the recommendation could change as epidemiologic investigations continue. He urged parents to be alert for measles symptoms, but made no recommendation about ensuring that kids are up to date with MMR vaccination. Ladapo is known for his concerns about COVID vaccine safety and has called for a halt in the use of mRNA COVID vaccines. Meanwhile, health officials in Ohio's Miami County have reported a measles case, marking the state's second of the year, according to a local media report. The patient visited a grocery store in Montgomery County before he or she was diagnosed, and health officials are tracking down people who were potentially exposed.Also, local health officials in Spokane County, Washington, today reported an infection in a local resident who was likely exposed outside the country. The Spokane Regional Health District warned residents about potential exposure at Spokane's international airport and at other public locations, including a library and restaurants.Officials urged people to check their children's and their own MMR vaccine status to ensure they are up to date with their doses.Last month, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention urged healthcare providers to be alert for measles cases against the backdrop of a global rise in cases.
Two measles cases confirmed in New Orleans -- The Louisiana Department of Health yesterday announced that two measles cases have been confirmed in the greater New Orleans area. An investigation is under way, and officials said the patients had recently traveled out of state.The New OrleansTimes-Picayune, citing local health officials, reported that the infections involve two children hospitalized at Children's Hospital New Orleans. The cases are Louisiana's first since 2018.Several states have reported measles cases over the past several weeks, which follows a rise in global cases and gaps in vaccination.In related developments, two states that reported earlier cases have reported more measles infections. Arizona's Maricopa Department of Public Health today reported two more cases, bringing its total to three. The cases are related exposures reported earlier this month. Officials also warned of potential exposures at five locations in the Chandler area, mainly restaurants but also a car rental office and an auto body shop.Elsewhere, the United Kingdom today updated its measles status, noting that 169 lab-confirmed cases have been reported since January 22. Most are from the West Midlands, particularly Birmingham, where an outbreak initially drove the United Kingdom's rise in cases.The UK's Health Security Agency (HSA) said the outbreak in Birmingham is stabilizing, but clusters of cases in other regions are on the rise. The majority (65%) of cases are in children younger than 10.
Most Mycoplasma genitalium isolates in Belgium macrolide-resistant - More than half of sequenced samples of Mycoplasma genitalium (MG) in Belgium were resistant to macrolides, researchers reported last week inEurosurveillance.From July to November 2022, a team led by researchers with the National Reference Centre of Sexually Transmitted Infections Belgium analyzed a collection of frozen MG-positive samples from 21 Belgian laboratories. MG is a sexually transmitted bacterium that can cause symptomatic and asymptomatic urethritis in men and has been associated with cervicitis in women. Although MG infections are commonly treated with macrolides (azithromycin) or fluoroquinolones (moxifloxacin), the rising levels of resistance reported elsewhere in Europe is a growing concern, and researchers wanted to get a better picture of MG resistance in Belgium.Of the 244 MG-positive samples received, 232 were able to be sequenced for macrolide and fluoroquinolone resistance-associated mutations (RAMs). Over half (55.2%) were resistant to macrolides, including all samples (24 of 24) from men who have sex with men (MSM). Macrolide resistance was also higher in men who have sex with women (18/30, 60%) than in women (64/143, 44.8%). Fluoroquinolone RAMs were found in 25.9% of samples, with little variation in resistance between sexes. The study authors say macrolide resistance testing for MG-positive samples should be implemented for all patient groups other than MSM to limit the use of fluoroquinolones and avoid the emergence of multidrug-resistant MG."Our findings highlight the requirement for updated Belgian MG testing and treatment guidelines, including comprehensive training for both laboratory specialists and healthcare practitioners," they wrote. "These measures are imperative in preventing testing practices that may inadvertently contribute to the further emergence of multidrug-resistant MG."
Study highlights high rate of multidrug-resistant urinary tract infections in East Africa - An analysis of urinary tract infection (UTI) isolates from East African countries found that roughly half were multidrug-resistant (MDR), researchers reported last week in JAC-Antimicrobial Resistance.For the study, researchers recruited children and adults with UTI-like symptoms from healthcare facilities in Tanzania, Kenya, and Uganda and collected urine samples for microbiologic analysis, including antimicrobial susceptibility testing. MDR bacteria were defined as isolates resistant to at least one agent in three or more classes of antibiotic agents.Of the 7,583 patients with symptomatic UTIs (3,852 from Tanzania, 1,903 from Kenya, 1,828 from Uganda), 2,653 (35.0%) had a microbiologically confirmed UTI. The predominant bacteria were Escherichia coli (37.0%), Staphylococcus (26.3%), Klebsiella (5.8%), and Enterococcus (5.5%). Of the 2,266 isolates submitted for antimicrobial susceptibility testing, 1,153 (50.9%) were categorized as MDR.MDR rates were 60.9% in Tanzania, 57.5% in Uganda, and 36.9% in Kenya. By pathogen, Staphylococcus had the highest MDR rate (60.9%), followed by E coli (52.2%), Klebsiella (50.6%), Enterococcus (38.1%), and other Enterobacterales (31.2%). The rate of MDR bacteria was much higher in inpatients than outpatients. The analysis also found "severely high" levels of resistance across pathogens to first-line antibiotics for UTIs.The study authors say the findings fill a crucial data gap and should be used to inform guidelines for empiric antibiotic treatment of UTIs in East Africa.They concluded, "More broadly, we emphasize the need for urgent investment in routine AMR surveillance programmes, expansion of diagnostic laboratory capacities and diagnostic algorithms to facilitate antimicrobial stewardship and call for greater commitment from policymakers to counter the threat of AMR."
Mpox symptoms evolved over the past 5 decades, meta-analysis finds A meta-analysis of papers published during mpox epidemics from 1970 to 2023 suggests that symptoms in affected patients have become more diverse, with a decrease in symptoms other than rash.Researchers from the Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University in China searched three databases for English-language, peer-reviewed studies on mpox symptoms published from January 1970 to April 2023. The periods covered included 1970 to 2022 (period 1, within Africa), 2003 to 2021 (period 2, mostly within Africa, but clusters elsewhere), and 2022 to 2023 (period 3, worldwide).The 61 included studies reported on 21 symptoms in 720 mpox patients from period 1, 39 symptoms from 1,756 patients from period 2, and 37 symptoms from 12,277 patients from period 3.The findings were published late last week in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance. The most common symptom in all three periods was rash (period 1, 92.6%; period 2, 100%; and period 3, 94.8%), followed by enlarged lymph nodes (period 1, 59.8%; period 2, 74.1%; and period 3, 61.1%). In period 1, the primary symptoms were fever (99%), enlarged lymph nodes (80.5%), and headache (69.1%), with a significant decline in these symptoms in period 3 (37.9%, 31.2%, and 28.7%, respectively).In period 2, chills/shivering (73.3%), fatigue (68.2%), and difficulty swallowing (61.2%) emerged as the main symptoms but fell off significantly in period 3. In period 3, most other symptoms were similarly prevalent or declined relative to periods 1 and 2.Nausea/vomiting correlated most closely with 13 symptoms and was highly positively correlated with enlarged lymph nodes and conjunctivitis ("pink eye") in period 2. During period 3, rash and headache were both most closely correlated with 21 symptoms and were highly positively correlated with fever. "It is necessary to surveil the evolving nature of mpox and the consequential changes in clinical characteristics," the study authors wrote. "Epidemic countries may shift their focus on the potential association among symptoms and the high synergy risk."
- New data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) shows that more than half of US newborns were protected from respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) this season by either the new monoclonal antibody preventive nirsemivab (Beyfortus) or maternal RSV immunization with Abrysvo, Axios reported, citing CDC figures. Through January, 40.5% of women with babies ages 8 months and younger said their infants received Beyfortus, and 16.2% of women at 32 or more weeks gestation received Abrysvo. Beyfortus was approved in July 2023, and high demand led to shortages in the fall and winter. In August 2023, Abrysvo was approved for pregnant women as a strategy to protect newborns.
- The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) today announced the first detection of highly pathogenic avian influenza in West Virginia's poultry, which occurred in a backyard flock in Kanawaha County, which encompasses Charleston, the state's capital. The state's agriculture department said the poultry owner contacted authorities following the rapid onset of illness and death in the multispecies flock. It said the virus had previously been detected twice before in wild birds. The outbreaks, which began in 2022, have now affected poultry in 48 states.
- Though few countries regularly test for COVID-19 and report their data, the World Health Organization (WHO) continues to report monthly trends, and for January, cases declined 58% compared to the previous month, while deaths declined 38%. Even fewer countries regularly report hospitalizations and intensive care unit admissions for COVID, and those markers also declined in January. The JN.1 variant remains the dominant strain—accounting for 88% of sequences—and is the only variant showing a continued increase.
Site in India receives responsible antibiotic manufacturing certification - Pharmaceutical company Viatris announced today that its manufacturing site in India has received Minimized Risk of Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) certification.The certification, developed by the British Standards Institution (BSI) in collaboration with the AMR Industry Alliance, provides third-party, independent verification that the antibiotic waste released into the environment by antibiotic manufacturing sites is below a threshold that could promote AMR in the environment. That threshold was established in responsible manufacturing guidelines developed by BSI and the AMR Industry Alliance in 2022 to encourage sustainable production of antibiotics.The certification scheme is targeting key antibiotic supply chain markets like India and China. According to a CIDRAP-ASP report, approximately 20,000 tons of pharmaceuticals, including antibiotics, are produced at active pharmaceutical manufacturing sites in India, which are largely unregulated. Researchers have found high levels of antibiotics and multidrug-resistant bacteria in waters near some of those sites, raising concern about the environmental risks posed by antibiotic manufacturing.
Infectious disease lessons for today from New York City tenement reform -Throughout the 19th century, epidemic disease was part and parcel of New York City life. An average of about one out of every 100 Manhattan residents died yearly between 1868 and 1910 from outbreaks of cholera, measles, smallpox, yellow fever, and other infectious diseases. Many city residents blamed the dense and dirty tenement neighborhoods, such as Five Points, for these outbreaks. In the early 19th century, the city filled the formerly bucolic Collect Pond when it became too polluted from nearby tanneries, breweries, and factories. Developers built a new neighborhood atop the former pond and named it Paradise Square. However, the neighborhood was anything but paradise. Buildings sank in the wet and marshy land. Streets were continually soiled and muddy. As conditions deteriorated, the wealthy moved out. Developers subdivided former factories, warehouses, and apartment buildings into a maze of makeshift residences—many containing just a single room—to house impoverished new immigrants who replaced the wealthy. The area became known as Five Points and grew a reputation as the most notorious tenement neighborhood in New York City. Most apartments in Five Points and other early tenement neighborhoods lacked sanitation. Some were devoid of windows and light. In the wet conditions, basements and streets infested with bacteria from the unsanitary disposal of human waste carried diseases like cholera into homes. Unventilated, windowless apartments trapped airborne diseases like tuberculosis and measles within. In these conditions, morbidity and mortality flowed throughout the poorest tenements. To improve safety the city passed a series of “tenement acts” beginning in 1867. These laws mandated improved sanitation and ventilation in newly erected buildings. Surprising to many, some tenement neighborhoods became as safe as wealthy neighborhoods while others continued to match the stereotype of epidemic “hot-beds.” For the most part, the Lower East Side (LES) tenements, home to many Jewish and German immigrants, had infectious disease mortality around 20 percent lower than the city-wide average. Other central and western tenement neighborhoods in southern Manhattan, such as the 6th Ward (containing Five Points), continued to exhibit high rates of infectious disease mortality about 25 percent higher than the city-wide average.Why did some tenement neighborhoods become safe and others did not? Data show that these differences did not occur because of common measures like population density, average wealth, or environmental factors. Instead the LES became safer from infectious disease due to its being one of the fastest growing neighborhoods in the city. This growth caused the continual building of new tenements that were in compliance with the safer ventilation and sanitation requirements of the tenement acts. The Report of The Tenement House Department of the City of New York 1902/1903 lists that 45 percent of all new apartment buildings in Manhattan were constructed in the LES. These new buildings were safer. Other tenement neighborhoods had less new construction. Many of their older buildings lacked ventilation shafts, courtyards, windows opening to a source of fresh air, and other safety measures required in newly constructed buildings. As such, their residents continued to suffer from infectious disease in these older ramshackle, poorly ventilated, and unsanitary buildings.
CDC announces E coli outbreak tied to raw milk cheese, more charcuterie Salmonella cases - At least 10 people in four states have been infected with pathogenic Escherichia coli in an outbreak tied to cheese made from raw milk by Raw Farm LLC, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) confirmed late last week, and a day earlier the agency reported 40 more Salmonella illnesses in a 30-state outbreak linked to charcuterie meats. In a February 16 food safety alert, the CDC said 4 of the 10 people with E coli were hospitalized. One of them developed hemolytic uremic syndrome, a serious condition that can cause kidney failure. None of the patients in the outbreak have died. Of eight patients who were interviewed, six reported eating Raw Farm raw cheddar cheese, which is made with unpasteurized milk. Illness-onset dates range from October 18, 2023, to January 29, 2024. Patients range in age from 2 to 58, with a median age of 24 years. Seven of the patients are male. "The true number of sick people in this outbreak is likely much higher than the number reported, and the outbreak may not be limited to the states with known illnesses," the CDC said. "This is because many people recover without medical care and are not tested for E. coli. In addition, recent illnesses may not yet be reported as it usually takes 3 to 4 weeks to determine if a sick person is part of an outbreak." Four cases are in California, 3 in Colorado, 2 in Utah, and 1 in Texas.The CDC advises people not to eat, sell, or serve Raw Farm raw cheddar cheese while it conducts its investigation into the outbreak. It said Raw Farm LLC, of Fresno, California, has agreed to recall implicated products and is working with the Food and Drug Administration. On February 15, the CDC noted that a Salmonella outbreak associated with charcuterie meats sold at various groceries has grown from 47 to 87 cases with the addition of 40 new illnesses. Affected states grew by 8, to 30.In this outbreak, illnesses began from November 20, 2023, to January 20, 2024. Of 74 people with information available, 18 have been hospitalized. No deaths have been reported. The outbreak strain is called Salmonella I 4:I:-.Patients range in age from 1 to 92 years, with a median age of 47. Sixty percent of patients in this outbreak are male. Ohio has confirmed the most cases, 13, while New York has reported 9 and Texas 8.The CDC said, "Epidemiologic and laboratory data show that charcuterie meat products from Fratelli Beretta are making people in this outbreak sick." On February 12, Fratelli Beretta USA, Inc, of Mount Olive, New Jersey, recalled many brands of charcuterie meat products containing coppa, a dry-cured pork product similar to prosciutto, owing to Salmonella contamination.The charcuterie meat was sold under the Aldi, Beretta, Black Bear, Busseto, Culinary Tour, Dietz and Watson, Lidl, Publix, and Salumi Artigianali brands. The CDC first alerted the public to the outbreak on January 5.
Cambodia reports another human H5N1 avian flu case as Hong Kong notes H9 infection Cambodia's health ministry has reported another human infection from H5N1 avian influenza, part of an uptick in similar cases that began in 2023.The patient is a 17-year-old girl from Kampot province, according to a ministry statement translated and posted by Avian Flu Diary, an infectious disease news blog. Kampot province is in southern Cambodia. The girl is hospitalized in the intensive care unit and is improving.An investigation found that about 5 days before the girl's symptoms began, there were seven dead chickens at her home.Cambodia has now reported 5 cases for 2024 and a total of 11 since February 2023, following nearly a decade with no human infections. Genetic sequencing on samples from several cases has revealed that the virus belongs to an older H5N1 clade (2.3.2.1c) that still circulates in poultry in some Asian countries, including Cambodia. It is different from the newer H5N1 clade (2.3.4.4b) that is currently affecting wild birds and poultry in multiple world regions, including the United States.Elsewhere, Hong Kong's Centre for Health Protection (CHP) today reported an influenza A H9 case, which involves a 22-month-old girl who had recently visited the city of Zhongshan in mainland China's Guangdong province. Her symptoms began on February 15, and she was seen at a hospital the next day but was not admitted. Plans are under way for her to receive care in hospital isolation.An investigation revealed that she had no direct contact with poultry during her incubation period while visiting the mainland, nor did she eat undercooked poultry or have contact with sick people. One of her home contacts had a sore throat on February 17 that subsided. The CHP said novel H9 flu virus infections, including H9N2, are typically mild. Hong Kong has reported nine cases since 1999, and its most recent case—from 2020—was also imported.
Chronic wasting disease confirmed in another Arkansas county The Arkansas Game and Fish Commission (AGFC)yesterday confirmed that a hunter-harvested white-tailed deer in Craighead County tested positive for chronic wasting disease (CWD), an always-fatal prion disease. The 2-year-old doe was harvested near Jonesboro during the Arkansas firearm season late last year. A sample from the doe tested positive for CWD, and the finding was confirmed by the Wisconsin Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory in Madison.Craighead County is in northeastern Arkansas, abutting Missouri and not far from the Tennessee border. The AGFC noted that, in addition to Craighead County, three new counties—Sharp, Cleburne, and Mississippi—have been added to the CWD management zone owing to their proximity to other newly identified CWD positive cases. "This proactive measure of including counties based on risk values is outlined in the state's CWD Management and Response Plan," the AGFC said. Cory Gray, chief of the AGFC's Research Division, said, "Protecting the health of Arkansas's deer herd is our top priority. We are being very proactive in all of our CWD management areas."CWD is a neurologic disease that leads to animals' deteriorating physical condition, including wasting, in deer, elk, caribou and moose. Officials first detected it in Arkansas in February 2016. Since then, the AGFC has tested more than 40,670 deer and elk for CWD, and 1,260 deer and 38 elk—or about 3% of all animals tested—have tested positive for the disease.
Plants can take up CWD-causing prions from soil in the lab. What happens if they are eaten? When Christopher Johnson, PhD, set out to study whether lab mice fed prion-contaminated plants developed neurodegenerative disease, he expected the plants to take up only small prion clusters, but they absorbed large clusters characteristic of prion diseases in deer and other animals.Then again, "Prions are constantly surprising," Johnson, a study coauthor and deputy director of the Office of Science Quality and Integrity at the US Geological Survey in Reston, Virginia, told CIDRAP News. "But perhaps we shouldn't ever be allowed to be surprised by them, because they are so resistant to degradation, and they are so resilient that finding prions in unusual settings is maybe something that we should all begin to just expect."Prions are infectious misfolded proteins that cause fatal neurodegenerative diseases such as chronic wasting disease (CWD) in cervids like deer and elk, scrapie in sheep and goats, bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE, or "mad cow" disease) in cattle, and Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in humans.In the case of CWD, once an animal is infected, it can spread the disease through direct contact, saliva, antler velvet, urine, feces, and carcasses, and the prions can persist in the environment for years. Once an animal is exposed, the incubation period in a host—the time before symptoms appear—is thought to be up to 2 years.But given the rapid spread of CWD throughout North America and parts of Europe and Asia, scientists question whether it is also being transmitted through a different route, such as the ingestion of contaminated plants.While researchers have been experimenting with protein uptake into plants since the 1970s, Johnson and colleagues' laboratory study, published in iScience in December, takes those investigations a step further. They demonstrated that alfalfa, barley, and Arabidopsis thaliana, a small plant from the mustard family called thale cress and other names, all accumulated sufficient prions from contaminated soil in their above-ground tissues to cause mice that ingested the plant tissues to develop prion disease. "There was a previous study that looked to see if plants could become surface-contaminated or potentially accumulate prions at all, and it looked like they could," Johnson said. "Our study shows that, under these lab conditions, consumption of contaminated plants could cause an infection," with implications for wildlife conservation, agriculture, and public health.The lead author of the previous study, Sandra Pritzkow, PhD, associate professor of neurology at McGovern Medical School at UTHealth Houston, said that prions can't replicate, or reproduce, in plants, so plants, like earthworms, should be considered potential carriers rather than hosts.
Are Tainted Cheerios Running Hog-Wild on Human Reproductive Organs? - Heart Healthy™ Cheerios contains an extra-special chemical ingredient called chlormequat seen to impair fertility and induce fetal birth defects. Recent research found it in 90% of American urine samples from 2023, up from 69% in 2017. The research also reported higher concentrations of the chemical in the urine in 2023 compared to 2017.\ Via Journal of Exposure Science & Environmental Epidemiology: “Chlormequat chloride is a plant growth regulator* whose use on grain crops is on the rise in North America. Toxicological studies suggest that exposure to chlormequat can reduce fertility and harm the developing fetus at doses lower than those used by regulatory agencies to set allowable daily intake levels. Here we report, the presence of chlormequat in urine samples collected from people in the U.S., with detection frequencies of 69%, 74%, and 90% for samples collected in 2017, 2018–2022, and 2023, respectively. Chlormequat was detected at low concentrations in samples from 2017 through 2022, with a significant increase in concentrations for samples from 2023… Chlormequat exhibits concerning toxicological properties, as documented in historical as well as more recently published laboratory animal studies. In the early 1980s, the impacts of chlormequat exposure on reproductive toxicity and fertility were first described by Danish pig farmers who observed reproductive declines in pigs raised on chlormequat treated grains. These observations were later investigated in controlled laboratory experiments on pigs and mice, whereby female pigs fed chlormequat treated grain exhibited disrupted oestrus cycling and difficulty mating compared to animals on a control chlormequat-free diet. Additionally, male mice exposed to chlormequat via diet or drinking water during development exhibited decreased fertilization capacity of sperm in vitro. More recent reproductive toxicity studies on chlormequat show delayed onset of puberty, reduced sperm motility, decreased weights of male reproductive organs, and decreased testosterone levels in rats exposed during sensitive windows of development, including during pregnancy and early life” The criticism of the above research, which is valid, will be that correlation does not necessarily equal causation, and the study did not prove that it’s the chlormequat that is devastating human reproductive health. Something, though, is causing the precipitous decline in testosterone levels in men and fertility in both men and women. So the question for skeptics is: if it’s not the food supply or other environmental toxins, what is it? Just look around. Something is turning human and non-human animals alike into lobotomized eunuchs. If anyone has a better theory aside from chemicals in the food and water supply (and pharmaceuticals), I’m all ears.
'Everyone was screaming': Passenger dies mid-flight after blood gushes out of his nose and mouth — Passengers were left horrified after a 63-year-old man died in the middle of a flight after coughing up “liters of blood,” leaving the aircraft walls splattered with blood last week. According to the Daily Mail, the unidentified man and his wife boarded their flight from Bangkok, Thailand, to Munich, Germany, when he became “visibly ill before his condition rapidly deteriorated.” The man’s wife reportedly said her husband boarded the flight with cold sweats and was “breathing much too quickly” because they “had been forced to run to catch the plane,” Daily Mail reported.Passenger Martin Missfelder said his wife, Karin Missfelder, who’s a nursing specialist, alerted a flight attendant that the man needed to be checked out by a doctor. The pilot proceeded to call for a doctor over the intercom; that’s when a Polish medic took the 63-year-old’s pulse and deemed that he was OK, the Daily Mail reported.The man was given chamomile tea, but at that point, he was already spitting blood into a bag that his wife was holding for him. As the plane took off, the man’s condition worsened, and a “gush of blood” began spilling out of his nose and mouth, covering the walls of the aircraft. “It was absolute horror, everyone was screaming,” Martin told Swiss outlet Blick. Martin claimed that the man lost liters of blood. Karin recalled that the staff had tried to give the man CPR for about 30 minutes, but it was “clear the man could not be saved,” the Daily Mail reported. “It was dead quiet on board,” Karin said as she described the aftermath of the horrific scene. According to the Daily Mail, the captain announced over the intercom that there had been a death on board, and the flight returned to Bangkok, where passengers were forced to disembark. “Please understand that we generally cannot provide any further details in the event of medical emergencies for reasons of privacy,” Lufthansa said in a statement to the Daily Mail.
CDC encouraging doctors to test blood for PFAS – commonly known as forever chemicals -The CDC has released new guidance for dealing with ‘PFAS’, the potentially cancer-causing chemicals found in many waterways. “Everyone should see their physician for a yearly checkup. And when they go, they should share any concerns that they have. One could be exposure to these compounds,” explained Dr. Dwight Flammia, public health toxicologist for the Virginia Department of Health. He says he isn’t quite sure why the CDC is now encouraging doctors to add more testing for ‘PFAS’; however, major exposure is caused by ingestion. “It’s either by drinking water that may have it in it, or consuming foods,” said Dr. Flammia. He says even if you do decide to get tested, the guidance on what to do with the results is not clear yet. “If you do have a level that you’re concerned about, of course monitor what you’re eating, what’s your source of food, where it comes from. And also, [monitor] the water that you’re drinking,” explained Dr. Flammia. If your drinking water has been exposed, it is recommended to use a filter and drink bottled water. Experts say even if you do have concerning levels of ‘PFAS’ in your system, it’s possible for it to decrease by half; however, depending on the type of chemical, this could take days to years. This is why finding out if your source of food and water has high levels of ‘PFAS’ is important, so you can start to reduce your exposure to the chemicals.
Our blood is teeming with "forever chemicals." Can we remove them by donating blood? --In their daily job of protecting lives, firefighters are exposed to a lot of hazards — not just smoke and fire, but unsafe traffic, violence and vicious cats in trees. However, one of the most perilous risks in firefighting can be somewhat invisible: so-called "forever chemicals," the substances that are used to suppress fires, such as in fire extinguishers and foams dumped on wildfires.One common class of forever chemicals are PFAS, which stands for per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, and they are compounds made of chlorine and fluorine nicknamed "forever chemicals" because they essentially never break down.This resilience is exactly what makes them so popular. PFAS are greatly resistant to water, grease, oil and stains, and as such are ubiquitous in products like food packaging, fast food wrappers, receipt paper, umbrellas, stain-resistant clothing, stain-resistant furniture and nonstick cookware. PFAS have even been found in our food and drinking water."If this becomes a common way to treat PFAS exposure we will need to look at the implications for recipients."Because they are in all of the products we regularly use, they are constantly getting into our bodies, which seems to have a harmful effect on us. They've been linked to cancers, liver diseases, reproductivediseases, type-2 diabetes, hypertension and immune disorders.The 285 firefighters who worked for Fire Rescue Victoria — a fire department in the Australian city of Melbourne — continued their public service despite the crises that surrounded them. They were diligent about their work during the Black Summer Bushfires that spanned 2019 to 2020. They persisted even as the COVID-19 outbreak became one of the worst pandemics in modern history.But these firefighters were also participating in a study to see if scientists could remove so-called "forever chemicals" from their bodies. As a result of the firefighters' efforts and those of the scientists who conducted the research, the public now knows a little more about whether these controversial chemicals — which are absolutely everywhere — can even be escaped.The parameters of the study, which was published in the journal JAMA Open in 2022, were straightforward: The firefighters were divided into three groups so that the amount of PFAS in their blood could be measured over the course of 12 months. During the 12 months of the experiment, one group of firefighters donated plasma every six weeks; a second group donated whole blood every 12 weeks; and the final group did not donate blood at all."Because PFAS bind to serum proteins in the blood, removing blood or plasma containing these proteins could reduce the level of PFAS in the blood. But we don't know for sure."After the results were analyzed, scientists learned that "plasma and blood donations caused greater reductions in serum PFAS levels than observation alone over a 12 month period."In other words: Donating blood or plasma can actually extract PFAS from your body. That said, the researchers behind the study admit that the mechanisms behind these PFAS reductions are murky."Our hypothesized mechanism is that because PFAS bind to serum proteins in the blood, removing blood or plasma containing these proteins could reduce the level of PFAS in the blood," Miriam K. Forbes, PhD, an associate professor at Macquire University and a co-author of the paper, wrote to Salon. "But we don't know for sure." Forbes added that "to our knowledge, this is the only study that has identified a method for reducing serum PFAS levels: Both blood and plasma donations resulted in significant reductions in PFAS, and plasma donations resulted in a more substantial decrease than blood donations."
New York legislators are renewing calls to stop the use of PFAS in everyday products -Lawmakers and advocates gathered at the New York state Capitol Tuesday to renew calls for legislation to control harmful PFAS chemicals. “You cannot avoid it. Our only hope is for future generations for us today to take the necessary steps to eliminate any production. And the continued production, the cleaning out of our water systems, and to prevent any future use of these forever chemicals,” Democratic Assemblymember Deborah Glick from the 66th District chairs the Committee on Environmental Conservation. Often referred to as “forever chemicals,” PFAS are resistant to breakdown, leading to accumulation in the environment. Glick, of Manhattan, called on manufacturers using materials containing PFAS to be “responsible corporate citizens” and pay for the cleanup. The chemicals have turned up in the water supply in a number of Northeast communities in recent years and are found in household items like nonstick pans. The group says a package of bills could eliminate PFAS in household products, personal care items, and menstrual products. It would also track the chemicals linked to ill health effects, including cancer, in sewage discharge. Democratic Assemblymember Chris Burdick of the 93rd District in Westchester County says manufacturers need to be held accountable. “Why is it necessary for us to pass laws to tell them to be responsible citizens of this state?” Burdick said. “They should be doing this voluntarily.” Of the more than 2,500 public water systems that have been tested in New York, roughly 250 systems have excess amounts of PFOA and PFOS contamination, according to the state Department of Health. It’s estimated that about half of the public water systems in the country have some level of PFAS contamination. Rockland County Assemblymember Kenneth Zebrowski of the 96th District sponsors a bill aiming to ban the sale of products containing PFAS. The Democrat calls the continued use of the chemical a “vicious cycle.” “Are we going to continue to allow products to be produced with this, that then go into landfills or thrown out or discharges into our wastewater systems and end up in our water supply?” Zebrowski said.
PFAS: No forever exemptions for forever chemicals — NRDC - As the harms posed by toxic “forever” PFAS chemicals become increasingly clear, policymakers have begun taking significant steps to curtail their use: many statesacross the country have already banned the use of PFAS, as a class, in various products including fire-fighting foam, food packaging, textiles, and cosmetics as a first step in turning off the tap on PFAS production. More recently, policymakers in Maine and Minnesotahave enacted more ambitious laws that phase out all unnecessary uses of PFAS by 2030 and 2032, respectively, with time-limited exceptions for currently unavoidable uses of PFAS. The European Union, similarly, has proposed to phase out all PFAS uses, with 5 or 12 year derogations (extensions) provided for uses that need more time to develop and transition to safer alternatives. This year, states are set to continue leading the way to protect people from PFAS, with 18 stateshaving introduced PFAS-related bills so far this year.Every time a piece of PFAS legislation is written or a regulation is developed, there is a risk that special interests will succeed in watering down its ambition or win carve outs for their products. In particular, we are concerned that stakeholders may call for broad exemptions for PFAS-based refrigerants and other gases related to the phasedown of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) - a major initiative to prevent harmful climate warming from HFC gases, which are very potent greenhouse gases that, pound for pound, warm the climate hundreds to thousands of times more than carbon dioxide. Some HFCs and, more importantly, most members of the group of alternatives to HFCs called hydrofluoroolefins (HFOs), that have been considered as being climate-friendlier, fall under the definition of PFAS. Phasing down HFCs is necessary for climate protection; however, this does not justify blanket exemptions from PFAS regulations for the next generation of alternatives. We should be examining the use of PFAS for climate-protection purposes just as carefully as we do for other uses. PFAS are a large group of manmade chemicals often referred to as toxic “forever” chemicals. PFAS chemicals are similar in many ways; most importantly, they are extremely resistant to break down in the environment. This means that PFAS concentrations in our bodies and in the environment will continue to increase, along with the risk of harm, unless we stop their production and use. To compound the problem, 1) many PFAS are also highly mobile in the environment, making their contamination hard to contain; 2) PFAS accumulate in the environment and some accumulate in our bodies and; 3) exposure to well studied PFAS has been linked to a range of health effects, including cancer, reproductive and developmental harm, and immune system suppression. Despite these known hazards, there are potentially tens of thousands of individual PFAS and over 200 different uses cataloged so far. Due to their persistence and unchecked widespread use, PFAS are now found in our air, water, food, homes and bodies (~98% of people in the US have PFAS in their blood). Levels of PFAS pollution throughout our environment already exceed safety thresholds (for example, PFAS have been found at health concerning levels in rain water around the globe), putting our health and that of the planet at risk. There is an urgent need to reduce our exposure to PFAS.Traditional regulatory methods for managing chemical production, use, and disposal have largely failed to protect people and the environment from widespread pollution and exposure to harmful chemicals like PFAS. The essential use approach, the basis of the Maine and Minnesota PFAS phase out laws, is a policy tool for managing chemicals of concern that has been gaining prominence as a way to more efficiently and effectively reduce the use of toxic chemicals to protect public health. It holds that chemicals of concern should not be used in products or processes where they are not critical for health, safety, or the functioning of society. Rather, unnecessary uses should be phased out and time-limited exemptions for specific uses should only be permitted if all of the following are true:
- there are no safer alternatives to the chemical available; and
- the function of the chemical is necessary for the product to work; and
- the use of the chemical in the product is critical for health, safety, or the function of society.
The goal of this approach is not to ban products, but to discontinue the use of toxic chemicals when not needed.
Study finds high levels of harmful chemicals in Pittsburgh's rivers - (KDKA) — A study found high levels of harmful chemicals in Pittsburgh's rivers. The so-called forever chemicals called per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, or PFAS, are linked to cancers and other serious health conditions. The non-profit organization Women for a Healthy Environment tested the water at three Allegheny County wastewater treatment plants and found startling levels of PFAS, much higher near the plant's discharge site than in other parts of the river. "This confirmed that wastewater treatment plants are a source of contamination, PFAS contamination, because they don't have the mechanisms that can filter out the PFAS chemicals," said Michelle Naccarati-Chapkis, executive director of Women for a Healthy Environment. The nonprofit raises awareness about PFAS, which have been used for decades to make waterproof products and non-stick products. PFAS are linked to severe health effects, including cancer, thyroid disease and liver damage. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has safety guidelines for PFAS levels, but there are no federal laws that need to be followed. "Wastewater treatment plants have very specific things that they are filtering out and filtering for, and so PFAS is not one of those chemicals that there is a mechanism in place," Naccarati-Chapkis said. Pennsylvania doesn't have any state laws governing PFAS, but other states are moving to find them and restrict them. Women for a Healthy Environment believes the state needs to change its policy around testing for PFAS and deal with this developing problem with real action. "We can all take simple steps to reduce our exposure and advocate for and use our voices for some of the things that we need from both the federal and state level," Naccarati-Chapkis said. PFAS worry researchers because you can't see, smell or taste them. They recommend using a water pitcher or getting a filter for your faucet to reduce your exposure.
Study finds alarmingly high levels of “forever chemicals” in small estuaries — A new study has discovered that small coastal estuaries contain concentrations of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) “forever chemicals” high enough to indicate a worldwide issue.For the study, the researchers looked at the distribution, occurrence, and risks of PFAS during the dry season in three micro-estuaries, a press release from Hebrew University of Jerusalem said.“Microestuaries have a crucial role in supporting biodiversity and human life quality in heavily populated areas. They are also the last barrier controlling fluxes of pollutants from the land to sea,” the authors of the study wrote. “The need for green zones and ecosystem services is constantly on the rise, with few to null open areas available to provide these necessities in highly urbanized areas.” The study, “Exploring Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances (PFAS) in Microestuaries: Occurrence, Distribution, and Risks,” was published in the journal Environmental Science & Technology Letters.The research team analyzed 120 samples from estuaries and found surprisingly high concentrations of PFAS that exceeded the recommended thresholds for aquatic ecosystems and recreation, the press release said.“The increasing proportion of wastewater to fresh water in streams, a trend projected to extrapolate to temperate regions due to climate change, consequently leads to chronic exposure of estuaries to elevated PFAS concentrations. Unless removed at wastewater treatment plants, this exposure disqualifies the estuaries as a vibrant aquatic system for human recreational activity, such as kayaking and fishing,” the study said.PFAS are commonly found in firefighting foam used in industrial zones, refineries, and airports.“There are thousands of PFAS synthesized and used globally. A recent work identified and classified 4730 different PFAS, and out of those, 256 are commercially available products. The large number of PFAS makes it difficult to monitor their fate and reactivity in the environmental compartments,” the study’s authors wrote.Wastewater effluents — especially those coming from refinery facilities within industrial zones — have been found to be a point source of PFAS pollution.“This anthropogenic stress may intensify due to climatic change, especially in semiarid regions already struggling with water scarcity. Aquatic ecosystems in these regions often suffer from low freshwater input and a constant discharge increase of wastewater of various qualities. This scenario, predicted to expand to more temperate zones, consequently limits the dilution of pollutants transported in water. In the case of persistent highly toxic pollutants, e.g., per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), the potential exposure of wildlife and humans cannot be ignored,” the authors wrote in the study.
PFAS contamination has grown in Michigan to the point that some Michiganders say presidential leadership is needed to deal with it - PFAS has become an everyday reality for many Michiganders. The state of Michigan has identified thousands of sites potentially contaminated with the man-made chemical. Michiganders have been talking about what kind of presidential leadership they would like to see on “forever chemicals.” Marjorie Steele is part of a grassroots group fighting a planned multi-billion-dollar battery plant near Big Rapids “We’re walking to my mailbox,” said Sandy Wynn-Stelt as she walks up the drive-way of her home in Belmont, just north of Grand Rapids, “which is right next to the dump site that they’re digging up some of the contamination.” She and her husband Joel bought the property back in the early 90’s to be in nature, but the property across the street turned out to be a major PFAS dump site. PFAS are a family of man-made chemicals linked to human health problems including cancers, like the ones that Sandy Wynn-Stelt survived and her husband Joel did not. “My husband passed away in 2016 of liver cancer, quite unexpectedly,” said Wynn Stelt, “It was the next year that the Department of Environmental Quality came and asked if they could test my water for PFAS. So that was the year I found out how contaminated our water had been.” PFAS chemicals were used for decades in many products, from non-stick pans to firefighting foam. And those chemicals remain in the environment. That industrial legacy is affecting Michigan’s industrial future. Last June, dignitaries symbolically broke ground on the first stage of development at the former Buick City site in Flint. Symbolically, because the former auto plant site is a 300 plus acre brown field. As part of its new use as a light industrial center, Grant Trigger and his team are working to clean up the vestiges of its heavy industrial past, which includes PFAS. Grant Trigger is the Michigan Cleanup Manager for the RACER Trust. At that June ground breaking, he talked about the challenge presented by PFAS, which includes just trying to understand where it came from. “We didn’t find PFAS on the site until 2018, that’s after over a hundred years of activity on the site,” said Trigger, “And we’ve looked at some of those things…and we’ve looked at the history of the operations….and you can speculate what might have happened but you can’t pinpoint it here.”
DoD Identifies Additional Locations for Interim PFAS Cleanup Actions — Department of Defense --- Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) released the names of more than 30 DoD installations and National Guard facilities where interim per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) cleanup actions are underway or will start in Fiscal Year 2024. These efforts will mitigate further PFAS plume migration or ongoing impacts to groundwater from on-base PFAS source areas and build on the Biden-Harris Administration's commitments to protect public health and the environment."We remain committed to taking care of our people and the surrounding communities and ecosystems. Implementation of these interim actions to clean up PFAS is another step in the right direction for protecting public health and the environment," said Dr. William LaPlante, Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment.DoD issued guidance last year directing the Military Departments to renew focus on initiating interim actions to address PFAS, where appropriate. The Department follows the federal cleanup law ("CERCLA") as it addresses its PFAS releases and is prioritizing cleanup in communities with the highest risk of exposure. PFAS are a large class of chemicals that do not break down easily in the environment and certain PFAS are linked to human health risks. Interim cleanup actions can include removal of soil "hot spots" and installation of groundwater extraction systems."We appreciate the effort put forth by the Military Departments to make the tangible progress these announcements represent," said Brendan Owens, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Energy, Installations, and Environment, "but at the same time, we acknowledge there is more work to do. I look forward to building on these efforts as we continue our commitment to the communities in which we serve."The DoD installations and National Guard facilities where interim actions are already being taken or will be initiated in Fiscal Year 2024 are listed on DoD's PFAS website. Interim actions can be taken at any point in the cleanup process, and the Department expects to take additional interim actions as more information becomes available from our investigations at over 700 installations and National Guard facilities. DoD's focus on PFAS cleanup is demonstrated by through policy and guidance issued by DoD's PFAS Task Force, direct action at installations, ongoing research efforts, investments in technology, and meaningful community engagement. The Department is committed to protecting public health and the environment in our military communities and will continue to accelerate PFAS cleanup efforts nationwide in accordance with federal law and in partnership with regulatory agencies and affected communities.
East Palestine, Ohio residents speak out one year after catastrophic train crash and chemical spill - Residents of East Palestine, Ohio were deeply skeptical of President Biden’s stage-managed appearance last Friday in the small working class community, more than a year after the catastrophic train derailment and chemical spill which poisoned the town’s air, water and soil.. Biden used the event to make a few perfunctory remarks to local officials, firefighters and a small group of handpicked residents. He praised the response and work supposedly done by the government, with vague statements that the cleanup would continue without making any real commitments. Last February, a Norfolk Southern train derailed in East Palestine, including 11 cars containing highly toxic chemicals, several of which ruptured and caught fire. Three days later, the railroad, backed by the state and local governments and the federal Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), conducted what it described as a “controlled burn” of 1.1 million pounds of highly toxic vinyl chloride released in the crash. This decision, made in order to return the railroad to operation as soon as possible, polluted the ground, water and air for miles around. While Norfolk Southern, the EPA and the Biden administration want to close the book on East Palestine, residents of this small eastern Ohio community want everyone to know that they are still suffering the health effects of the deliberate polluting of their town. Shelby Walker’s house sites along the Norfolk Southern tracks that run through East Palestine. She lives just 900 feet from the site of the derailment. Shelby feels the EPA has been lying to them and wants to have health care paid for. “We want the Biden administration, the media and everybody to know that we are still here and that it is not safe for us. That we are still getting sick. The EPA is saying that everything is safe. It definitely is not! We are still getting sick. Everybody is still getting sick. “On the night of the derailment a few of us were home. We heard it and we came outside. We saw the fire down the tracks. We came back into the house and watched from the windows. “We saw that track light up like a fuse. So, we packed up our belongings and gathered everyone up and headed out. Some of us went to my mother’s. My husband and I stayed back to see if our house caught on fire. “Now I wish it would have, because we wouldn’t have had a home to come back to that made us sick. All that smoke, we didn’t know it at the time, but it was the vinyl chloride that was on fire that made us sick. No one told us what was on that train.” Vinyl chloride is a highly toxic chemical used in the making of PVC plastic pipes and other industrial materials. It is a known carcinogen, causing cancer of liver, brain and other organs. The burning of vinyl chloride produces dioxins, a class of highly toxic chemicals which does not decompose and accumulates in living organisms. “We get headaches really bad, nosebleeds, memory loss, my teeth hurt really bad,” Shelby said. “When I go into the back yard, I get pain in my mouth, my lips feel like they are really chapped, they just get burnt. My mother gets nosebleeds. There are a lot of symptoms that we’ve been dealing with throughout the year. “It feels like I’m getting dementia. Sometimes I can’t remember, can’t concentrate on the things that I’m thinking about. I still can’t go in the backyard because it is so contaminated. “My husband has the onset of Parkinson’s disease. He was never diagnosed with Parkinson’s before. Now he has it and he is on medication for it. He is only 49 years old.” Asked about the role of the Environmental Protection Agency, she said: “I feel we’ve been lied to, they kept telling us that it’s safe to come back. But clearly it’s not with all the symptoms we’ve been having and all the tests we’ve been getting back. The EPA refuses to test our property. So how can they tell us it’s safe when they don’t test the ground here? “They won’t test inside our house or the soil in our yard. They say they’re waiting until the mitigation is done. What’s the point of that? You should test now so you know what needs to be cleaned up.” Shelby said the testing was done a few weeks after the explosion. “Contractors with Norfolk Southern came by. We knew that testing was no good everybody got the exact same results.” Shelby feels that the EPA is still not telling them the truth. “They tell me one thing in private but then they say something completely different to the media. They need to keep cleaning up and provide people with healthcare for the rest of our lives. You don’t know what the long-term effect of these chemicals are going to be.”
Supreme Court will hear challenge to EPA's 'good neighbor' rule that limits pollution -- The U.S. Supreme Court will hear arguments Wednesday in an important environmental case that centers on the obligation to be a "good neighbor." Lawyers representing three states, companies and industry groups will ask the justices to block a federal rule that's intended to limit ozone air pollution. Experts said it's only the third time in more than 50 years that the court has scheduled arguments on an emergency application like this one. At the heart of the dispute is the part of the Clean Air Act known as the "good neighbor" provision. It's designed to help protect people from severe health problems they face because of pollution that floats downwind from neighboring states. "Air pollution doesn't respect state borders," said Harvard Law School professor Richard Lazarus. States like Wisconsin, New York and Connecticut can struggle to meet federal standards and reduce harmful levels of ozone because of emissions from coal plant smokestacks, cement kilns and natural gas pipelines that drift across their borders. "One of the primary reasons that Congress passed this law in 1970 was the one place you could not trust the states to do it on their own was when there was interstate air pollution," Lazarus said. Vickie Patton, general counsel at the Environmental Defense Fund, said these bedrock protections can save lives. "There are children, there are older adults, people who work outside in the summer and people who are afflicted by asthma who are at very, very serious risk, and this case is just about asking those upwind polluters to do their fair share," Patton said. Three of those upwind states — Ohio, Indiana and West Virginia — alongside companies including Kinder Morgan Inc. and U.S. Steel Corp. want the Supreme Court to freeze the good neighbor rule while they pursue an appeal with a lower court in the D.C. Circuit. Stephen Vladeck, a law professor at the University of Texas and author of a book putting these kinds of emergency actions by the Supreme Court into context, said the other two cases where the justices entertained arguments at this stage involved vaccine mandates during the coronavirus pandemic. The good neighbor case, on the other hand, doesn't present those same kinds of issues, he said. "If this is an emergency, what isn't?" Vladeck asked. "There are lots of federal polices that are going to have massive stakes and they're going to have massive stakeholders on both sides. It's not at all obvious why this case merits this kind of special treatment." Traditionally, the Supreme Court goes last — after a case has made its way through the lower courts and a variety of facts and arguments have been aired. "This case hasn't really gone very far at all," Vladeck said. "I mean, the only thing that's happened in the entire litigation to date is that the D.C. Circuit, the federal appeals court, refused to give the same thing that they're now asking the Supreme Court for, refused to basically pause the rule at the beginning of the litigation." Lawyers for the states and companies challenging the good neighbor rule declined to talk before the arguments. In court papers, they call the EPA rule a "disaster" and "a shell of itself." That's because the plan originally applied to 23 states. But lower courts have hit pause in about half of them for a bunch of different reasons, in separate litigation. These lawyers said states shouldn't have to shoulder the costs for what they say is an unlawful federal mandate, criticizing the EPA for taking a "top-down" approach to the rule. But environmental advocates say many of the obligations in the new rule won't kick in until 2026, giving big polluters a couple of years to prepare. The rule is already in force and protecting people in a number of states, they add. Lazarus, at Harvard Law School, said to win a pause at the Supreme Court, the states challenging the rule will have to meet what's typically a high bar by showing they're likely to win on the merits and they're suffering irreparable harm.
Supreme Court appears skeptical of EPA interstate air pollution rule - The Supreme Court heard arguments on the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) interstate air pollution rule Wednesday, with members of the court’s liberal minority expressing skepticism about the appropriateness of hearing the case but the conservative majority seeming amenable to blocking the rule.The “Good Neighbor” rule, which regulates downwind air pollution produced by upwind states, is the subject of a lawsuit by industry groups and the states of Indiana, Ohio and West Virginia. Justice Brett Kavanaugh appeared skeptical of the EPA’s rationale in arguing for the rule’s overall validity when lower courts have already blocked the rule in 12 of the 23 states covered. The agency, he said, was proposing to “just kind of pretend nothing happened, just go ahead” with the rule in the remaining states.The Clean Air Act allows states to develop their own interstate pollution plans but enables the EPA to step in with its own if it deems state plans inadequate. State plaintiffs have argued they were not given enough time to comply. Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson said it seemed “fairly extraordinary” for the plaintiffs to request emergency relief before having won or lost in the Circuit Court for the District of Columbia. Ohio Deputy Solicitor General Mathura Sridharan argued in response that the states were moving at “breakneck speed” to prevent what she said were imminent power shortages that would result from the rule.Jackson noted that the rule does not take effect until 2026, suggesting that was enough time to ask the lower court to expedite the request. Justice Sonia Sotomayor, too, suggested the litigants were “rush[ing] to us on an incomplete record.”“If all these lawsuits that the states are bringing are going to end up losing, the idea that you can be here and be demanding emergency relief just because states have kicked up a lot of dust seems not the right answer to me,” Justice Elena Kagan added.The court’s six conservative justices have been broadly receptive to curtailing the power of federal agencies, and in oral arguments in January appeared poised to strike down the so-called Chevron doctrine, which gives federal agencies broad latitude in interpreting federal law. In another decision, EPA v. West Virginia, the court ruled against the EPA’s Clean Power Plan regulating power plant output. Environmental groups expressed dismay at the prospect of the court blocking the Good Neighbor rule Wednesday.“Just in the last two years, the Supreme Court’s far-right majority has rolled back protections for our waterways and limited EPA’s tools to fight climate pollution,” Matthew Davis, League of Conservation Voters vice president of federal policy, said in a statement. “Our communities, our planet, and our democracy deserve better. The Supreme Court must get out of the way and allow the EPA’s Good Neighbor Rule to move forward.”
Australia: Asbestos contamination found in public spaces across SydneyAsbestos is a hazardous and carcinogenic building material that was in widespread use in Australia until the late 1980s. While the health risks, especially to workers, were known to manufacturers decades earlier, use of the material was not completely banned until 2003. Thousands of Australians have died from mesothelioma, lung cancer and asbestosis as a result. The recent discoveries of contamination began in early January, when suspicious material was found by community members in a newly built park at Rozelle in the city’s inner west and reported to Transport for New South Wales (NSW). This sparked an investigation by the NSW Environment Protection Authority (EPA) and the state Labor government. Initially, attempts were made to dampen down public concern, with official assertions that only lower risk bonded asbestos, in which the dangerous fibres are kept in place by other materials, had been found. But the expansion of testing across the city led to the February 13 discovery of more dangerous friable asbestos, which can easily be crushed into a powder, become airborne and be inhaled, at Harmony Park in the inner-city suburb of Surry Hills. As well as numerous parks across the city, the material has been found at two hospitals, three supermarkets, sporting facilities and multiple railway stations on the Bankstown line. The list of contaminated sites now includes at least five schools, including St Luke’s Catholic College in Western Sydney, which has been forced to institute remote learning for its roughly 2,000 students as a result. It has also been found at Nowra, on the NSW South Coast, suggesting that the contamination could be spread more widely across the state. Today, the Australian Capital Territory government confirmed that potentially contaminated mulch was sold to 24 companies and 27 addresses in and around Canberra over the past year, although no asbestos has been found in the nation’s capital at this stage. The EPA claims the affected mulch can be traced back to Greenlife Resource Recovery and its waste facility at Bringelly in Sydney’s south-west and has locked down the site. EPA tests of nine mulch and three soil samples from the facility in January showed no asbestos, but a spokesperson for the authority said it was “concerned about mulch that was manufactured and sold between March and December 2023 and is no longer on site.” The company has denied responsibility, noted that there are multiple points in the supply chain in which contamination could have occurred and that the asbestos could have been present at the sites before the mulch was delivered. Greenlife declared in a statement: “Many of the sites the mulch is delivered to are remediated sites, meaning those sites have had asbestos buried there many decades ago.” The Bringelly site has previously been the subject of four EPA clean-up notices under its previous owner, Hi-Quality Waste Management. According to an investigation by the Sydney Morning Herald, these include a notice in 2016 when EPA officers discovered asbestos fragments, along with other pieces of non-plant matter such as concrete, mixed into stockpiles supposed to contain only soil and rocks. A penalty notice was issued in 2017 and more asbestos was discovered in 2020, mixed in with other waste material. Greenlife purchased the site in 2022 and a representative from Hi-Quality Group stated that the company engaged an auditor approved by the EPA before the sale to assess site conditions, ensuring it met the criteria for sale. Greenlife said that multiple independent tests of the mulch used at Rozelle were ordered by the contractor in charge of the development, John Holland, and were cleared each time. Greenlife also stated that two other mulch samples were collected in October and November last year, tested by an independent lab and cleared. This limited and opaque testing process, entirely under the control of the corporations that stand to lose if any contamination is found, is nevertheless more than what is legally demanded. The EPA requirements for testing of mulch call merely for a visual inspection to confirm the material does not contain any extraneous matter. With the recent discoveries drawing attention to the issue of asbestos contamination, it has become increasingly clear that dangerous practices in the production of recycled landscaping material have been known about and ignored by regulators for years. An investigation by the Guardian revealed that the EPA has known for more than a decade that soil fill made from construction and demolition waste, called “recovered fines,” failed to comply with the authority’s rules resulting in products containing asbestos and lead. A 2019 internal investigation by the EPA revealed that waste processing companies were able to bypass regulations by simply requesting that new samples, provided by the companies, be tested after a problem is identified. The report found that 43 percent of all waste facilities in the state had requested retesting after they received a breach notice. After dangerously high levels of lead were detected in samples from one facility, five additional samples were sent before one was found that contained an acceptable concentration. The earlier tests ranged from 10 to 20 times the acceptable limit.
Dengue activity in the Americas already outpacing last year's surge - After record dengue activity in 2023 in the Americas, the brisk pace of new infections showed no let-up in the first 5 weeks of the new year, with 11 countries reporting rising cases and Brazil among the hardest-hit nations. In its latest epidemiologic alert, the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) said cases have increased 157% compared to the same period in 2023 and are 225% above the 5-year average. After reporting record cases that topped 4.5 million last year, countries in the Americas have already recorded more than 673,000 dengue infections in the first 5 weeks of 2024, including 700 severe cases and 102 deaths. Countries reporting increases this year are Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Guadeloupe, French Guiana, Martinique, Mexico, Paraguay, and Peru. Two thirds of this year's cases are from Brazil, where more than 455,000 dengue infections have been reported.All four serotypes are circulating in the Americas region this year, with proportions that vary by country. However, Brazil, Costa Rica, Honduras, and Mexico are seeing circulating of all four serotypes. In January, Brazil's health ministry announced the details of a plan to launch dengue vaccination through its public health system, the first country in the world to do so. The country is using the Qdenga vaccine, which is made by Takeda. The campaign will target 3.2 million people with two doses of the vaccine.In related news, the Fiocruz Institute today announced that it has doubled the production of dengue tests, based on a request from Brazil's health ministry. Along with 300,000 tests slated for delivery throughout the year, Fiocruz will deliver another 300,000 in the first few months of 2024.The tests can confirm all four dengue serotypes, as well as chikungunya and Zika viruses.Other hot spots in the region include Mexico, where cases are running 368% higher than the same period last year. Most of the country's cases are in three states: Quintana Roo, Tabasco, and Guerrero, all in the south.In the Caribbean subregion, cases are up 741% from a year ago, mainly in non Latin areas. Alongside Brazil, other Southern Cone countries reporting dengue surges include Paraguay, especially in Central, Asunción, and Itapúa departments in the south.
The Devastating Impacts of Avian Flu in Antarctica | Earth.Org (photo essay) - In November 2023,I was commissioned by a travel agency to film promotional material for their luxury Antarctica cruises. Starting from the port town of Ushuaia in Argentina, our 19-day journey stopped at the Falkland Islands, South Georgia, and finally the Antarctica Peninsula itself, located at about 1,300 kilometers (800 miles) to the south. After we left the Falkland Islands toward South Georgia, both British territories, the news of the progression of H5N1 – a contagious and highly pathogenic avian flu strain – slowly dawned on us. The virus had started to creep into this sub-Antarctic region. Understandably, there was a lot of apprehension when our ship arrived in South Georgia, as cruise ship crew and passengers feared a potential encounter with dead birds or penguins. Unlike the Falkland Islands – which is inhabited by just over 2,800 people – South Georgia is a designated Marine Protected Area and lacks a permanent population. One unique aspect of our cruise voyage is its ability to facilitate landings on shores without the need for a port. With the use of “Zodiacs” – military-standard speedboats – passengers can be transported to rather inhospitable areas to get a chance to observe wildlife up close. However, whether we could land or not depended exclusively on daily rules set by the South Georgian government and the International Association of Antarctica Tour Operators (IAATO). As feared, H5N1 had been spreading around the islands, leading to the closure of many landing zones to prevent the spread of the disease to humans. During our four days around South Georgia, we were only permitted to land once at a penguin colony on Fortuna Bay on the northern side of the island.This involved strict biosecurity measures such as disinfecting clothing and maintaining a two-meter distance from all wildlife.The following day, authorities shut down Fortuna Bay due to the threat of an incoming H5N1 wave. According to one of our expedition guides, South Georgia is now being omitted from cruise itineraries altogether following the closure of most landing zones by local authorities. As a consolation, our cruise company subsequently organized Zodiac trips along the coastline, allowing us to observe wildlife from a reasonable distance.These images were taken from the Gold Harbour beach in South Georgia. Here,I witnessed the devastation of avian flu firsthand. Rows of dead seals lined the entire beach, while some carcasses were swept into the ocean. Curiously, the virus had only affected seals and not penguins. At least until then. In recent days, the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) identified 35 potential cases of H5N1 avian influenza virus among gentoo penguins, a species native to sub-Antarctic islands, with 14 cases being confirmed so far via PCR test. According to Reuters, the Falkland Islands government has identified “over 200 dead chicks alongside a handful of adults” and was awaiting test results from rockhopper penguins as it prepared “for a large-scale outbreak.”
Bipartisan conservation poll shows increasing concern over environmental issues in Western States --An annual bipartisan survey on conservation in Western states found an increase in voter concerns over climate issues from land and water use to wildlife populations and wildfires. The 14th annual Conservation in the West Poll from the Colorado College State of the Rockies Project said anxieties regarding many environmental topics had reached new highs.“Issues that are the highest in 14 years of conducting this survey,” said Lori Weigel, one of the project’s pollsters. “They are at the highest levels of concern ever.”The poll contacted people online or by phone, with at least 400 voters in each of the eight Mountain West states — Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming. Weigel is a Colorado-based Republican pollster and conducts the survey with Democratic pollster Dave Metz, who lives in California. Issues that saw increased concern included climate change, wildlife habitats, water supplies, pollution, and loss of natural areas. Overall, 85 percent of Western voters said a candidate’s focus on conservation issues was important in deciding whether to support the candidate. For 37 percent of voters, conservation issues were the primary factor in their choice of who to support. In one example, nearly 80 percent of voters said more emphasis should be put on protecting migration routes—for species like elk or pronghorn—than on “economically productive” uses of those lands, such as new home developments, roads, or oil and gas production. “There may be a lot that divides voters across the country, but in the West, there is nearly universal consensus in favor of conservation,” Katrina Miller-Stevens, Director of the State of the Rockies Project, said in a press release on the survey. However, that does not mean there were no partisan or state-specific differences in voter’s level of support for certain issues. For example, 60 percent of Colorado voters rated the loss of fish and wildlife habitat as “Extremely Serious” or “Very Serious.” In Wyoming — far more sparsely populated and conservative — that total was 48 percent. Perhaps unsurprisingly, 76 percent of Arizona voters were similarly concerned about inadequate water supplies, compared to 37 percent of Wyoming voters and 46 percent of voters in Montana. However, 53 percent of Wyoming voters were seriously worried about their children not spending enough time outdoors, versus 49 percent of Colorado respondents.
Extreme cold event in BC causes near-total crop failure, Canada - The British Columbia wine industry is bracing for unprecedented crop losses due to an extreme cold event in January 2024, with preliminary estimates forecasting a production decrease of 97 – 99%, resulting in industry-wide revenue losses between $440 – 445 million. Summary of impacts:
- 97 – 99% decrease in grape and wine production
- $440 – 445 million decrease in vineyard, winery, & supplier revenues
Between January 11 and 15, British Columbia’s wine regions experienced severe cold temperatures, dipping below -20 °C (-4 °F), particularly in the Okanagan Valley, where the cold persisted for over 50 cumulative hours. This event, following a relatively mild early winter, has caused extensive damage to grapevines, surpassing the effects of a similar cold event in December 2022. The BC Wine Grape Council conducted thorough bud dissection tests on samples from 32 grape varieties across 9 regions, revealing extensive damage to primary and secondary buds. This damage renders typical pruning practices ineffective against the expected severe crop losses. This year’s cold event is anticipated to be more destructive than last year’s, which already reduced grape and wine production by 58%. The current situation suggests an almost total loss of the 2024 vintage, with only 1 – 3% of typical yields expected, primarily from unaffected areas like the Fraser Valley and Vancouver Island. As a result, the production of 100% BC grapes and wine will see a drastic reduction, impacting the availability of local wine in retail, hospitality channels, and wine club subscriptions. The financial toll on BC’s wine industry is substantial, with vineyards and wineries facing revenue losses between $340 – 346 million. Additional revenue losses of $97 – 99 million are expected along the supply chain, totaling an estimated $440 – 445 million in losses to the BC wine industry. These figures are based on an economic impact assessment adjusted for industry growth since 2019, indicating the industry’s revenue-generating capacity was around $453 million before the cold event. The long-term effects on grapevine health and the need for replanting pose further challenges, requiring significant investment to rebuild the agricultural foundation of the industry.
Atmospheric river event brings new round of heavy rain and snow to California - An atmospheric river event continues directing subtropical moisture over much of California on Monday, February 19, 2024. Heavy coastal and low-elevation rain, thunderstorms, heavy mountain snow and high winds are all expected from this new atmospheric river event. Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding is possible for much of the state today, NWS forecaster Kebede noted. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) is in effect from Humboldt to Orange County as well as over parts of the Sacramento Valley and along upslope portions of the Sierra. Meanwhile, a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is in effect for parts of the Sacramento Valley where an isolated tornado will be possible. A targeted Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect for Santa Barbara and Ventura where heavy rainfall will focus, especially over elevated terrain. In addition, heavy snow will blanket the Sierra Nevada and Shasta Siskiyous today as well, with those mountains forecast to receive 30 to 90 cm (1 – 3 feet), with isolated places expected to receive even more snow by Tuesday morning. The moisture feed into California will weaken considerably and sag south on Tuesday, February 20, but the threat of Flash Flooding will persist across southern California, in particular. Upslope flow into the Transverse ranges will support a renewed threat of Flash Flooding. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect from Humboldt down through San Diego County on Tuesday mainly due to sensitive soils from today’s heavy rain. Up to 30 cm (1 foot) of additional snow accumulations with locally higher amounts are possible over the Sierra and Shasta Siskiyous on Tuesday. Damaging wind gusts should continue into Wednesday morning before gradually weakening.
Australia: Wild storms result in largest-ever blackout in the state of Victoria - Wild storms in the Australian state of Victoria last week cut the electricity supply to more than 530,000 homes and businesses. Strong winds brought down high-voltage transmission lines and resulted in the automated shutdown of one major power generator. The blackout was the largest in the state’s history surpassing the figure of 520,000 customers who lost power during storms in October 2021. The wild weather also led to widespread damage that is still being assessed. As of yesterday, the state’s emergency authorities confirmed the storm destroyed 37 homes, leaving them uninhabitable. In Mirboo North to the southeast of the state capital, Melbourne, dairy farmer Bruce Manintveld, was killed when extreme winds sent a large sheet of metal towards him as he was attempting to herd his cows. The huge blackout—the second in just over two years—has exposed the fragility of the power system that is both ageing and inadequately maintained. At around 2 p.m. on February 13, high winds brought down six high-voltage transmission towers at Anakie to the west of Melbourne. That event tripped four units at Loy Yang, some 200 kilometres east in the Morwell Valley, and the power loss threw the electricity system out of balance. As a result, the Australian Energy Market Operator called on the electricity distributor AusNet to cut off power, or load shed, to about 90,000 customers in order to prevent further damage. While power was restored to many of those homes and businesses, more than 12,000km of powerlines and poles were damaged in the storms that brought down a large number of trees. Powercor workers clear fallen trees and power lines from roads near Lara, in Victoria [Photo: powercor.com.au] The distribution networks of AusNet and United Energy were the hardest hit. AusNet, serves outer eastern and outer northern Melbourne, as well as eastern and north-eastern Victoria. It had some 262,601 customers without power on the evening of February 13. United Energy, which covers south-east Melbourne and the Mornington Peninsula, had 134,579 customer outages. Of the 530,000 customers that initially lost power, 127,743 still had no supply a day later at 5 p.m. on February 14 and 44,000 were still without power at 5 p.m. on February 15. As of this Tuesday, that is a week later, some 2,620 homes and 500 businesses were still without power—the overwhelming majority AusNet customers located in Victoria’s east. The loss of power also impacted mobile phone and internet networks across the state. As of last Thursday, around 230 phone towers were still offline. Mobile phone provider Telstra warned that 22 communities were potentially completely isolated from all public telecommunications and unable to make emergency triple-zero calls. The triple-zero emergency number and emergency services were overwhelmed by those able to make calls. Based on internal reports, the Herald Sun revealed that at one point on February 13, emergency callers had to wait more than a minute to speak to fire services, up to six minutes for police and 23 minutes for the State Emergency Service. A relief point had to be set up at Mirboo North to provide information, electricity generators and satellite internet for residents who were without power or telecommunications and completely cut off by the storm damage.
Thousands urged to evacuate as wildfire rages near Ballarat, Victoria - (two videos) An emergency warning has been issued for 28 communities west of Ballarat, Victoria, as residents are urged to evacuate due to an out-of-control bushfire. The fire, which ignited along Bayindeen-Rocky Road, is being fought by 1 000 firefighters with support from 24 aircraft and 100 vehicles. Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan and emergency officials emphasize the rapidly evolving situation, with no properties reported damaged yet but significant disruptions including road closures and power outages affecting over 2 100 customers. Thousands of residents in 28 communities are being urged to evacuate immediately as an out-of-control wildfire threatens areas west of Ballarat, Victoria, on February 22, 2024. The Victorian Country Fire Authority has issued an emergency warning, anticipating a critical wind change expected to exacerbate the fire conditions between 18:00 and 19:30 LT. Additionally, residents of nine nearby townships have been advised to leave as the situation deteriorates. The fire, which erupted along Bayindeen-Rocky Road in bushland, has rapidly expanded, challenging the efforts of 1 000 firefighters attempting to contain it. Despite the scale of the response, which includes 24 aircraft and 100 vehicles, no property damage has been reported thus far. Jason Heffernan, the chief officer of the Victorian Country Fire Authority, has warned that the fire’s intensity is likely to increase before any improvement is seen. YouTube video YouTube video The Western Highway closure has significantly disrupted travel between Ballarat and Ararat, prompting authorities to advise alternative routes and urge those in the affected area to move east towards Ballarat for safety. Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan has highlighted the rapid development of the situation, with spot fires igniting ahead of the main fire front, and emphasized the importance of staying informed through emergency alerts. Despite the emergency, no school closures are anticipated for Friday. The state government has reported that more than 2 100 customers are without power due to the fire, adding to the distress caused by previous storms. The situation in Victoria is part of a broader pattern of severe weather and fire conditions affecting various parts of Australia. Emergency services have been on high alert, with extreme fire warnings also in place for South Australia, Tasmania, and Western Australia.
Destructive avalanche hits Afghanistan, leaving at least 25 people dead - A destructive snow avalanche mixed with rubble swept through the village of Nakre in the Tatin Valley, located in the Nugram district of Nuristan Province, Afghanistan,, overnight on Sunday, February 18, 2024. The disaster resulted in at least 25 fatalities and 8 injuries, with around 20 homes destroyed or heavily damaged. The avalanche, composed of a massive flow of snow mixed with debris, caused the destruction or severe damage of approximately 20 residential structures. Jamiullah Hashimi, the provincial head of information and culture, told AFP, that ongoing snowfall complicates rescue operations and indicated that the death toll could rise as efforts to reach and assist the affected continue under challenging weather conditions. Afghanistan, a country that typically experiences harsh winters, witnessed a delayed onset of snow this year, which has had broader implications given the nation’s already critical situation facing a third consecutive year of drought.
Severe sandstorms hit parts of NW China - (video) Severe sandstorms hit Ruoqiang County in China’s Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region on the morning of February 17, 2024, reducing visibility to less than 100 m (330 feet) and prompting authorities to implement traffic control measures on many roads. In Turpan, local rescue teams were deployed to assist those stranded by the sandstorms. The situation escalated on February 18 when the Shaanxi Meteorological Observatory issued a Yellow alert for sandstorms in the northwest China province. By midday, Xi’an and other cities in Shaanxi were engulfed in dust. According to the Qinghai Meteorological Bureau, most areas of the province experienced sharp temperature drops and strong winds, in addition to the sand and dust in the air. Before daybreak on February 17, temperatures in some areas of Xinjiang’s Toli County fell below -25 °C (-13 °F), leading to over 300 vehicles being stranded by a strong blizzard. In Gansu Province, highways in Jiuquan City were temporarily closed, with some vehicles stranded. Furthermore, Tuerhong Township in Fuyun County, Xinjiang recorded a historic low temperature of -52.3 °C (-62.14 °F) on February 18, surpassing the -51.5 °C (-60.7 °F) record set on January 21, 1960, and approaching the national record low of -53 °C (-63.4 °F) observed in Mohe, Heilongjiang Province in 2023.
Xinjiang records lowest temperature in history at -52.3 °C (-62.1 °F), China - Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region has set a new record for low temperatures, reaching -52.3 °C (-62.14 °F) in Fuyun County, leading to the death of numerous birds and surpassing a cold record held since 1960. Amidst the Chinese Lunar New Year’s return, this severe cold has resulted in extensive traffic disruptions and emergency responses across the region. As the cold wave grips northern Xinjiang, temperatures have fallen sharply by 35 to 46 °C (63 to 82.8 °F) over the past three days, causing widespread wildlife fatalities and transportation chaos. The temperature in Tuerhong Township of Fuyun County reached a historic low on February 18 at -52.3 °C (-62.14 °F), surpassing the -51.5 °C (-60.7 °F) record set on January 21, 1960. This temperature is close to China’s national record low of -53 °C (-63.4 °F) observed in Mohe, Heilongjiang Province in 2023. The extreme weather has impacted 853 kilometers (530 miles) of roads in Altay, with 47 vehicles and 86 rescuers deployed overnight to clear snow and ice. The broader effects of the cold spell have led to the closure of 43 road sections and 623 toll stations in regions including Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang, according to the transport ministry. The National Meteorological Center has issued a high-level warning for freezing conditions, expecting temperatures to fall by 8 to 12 °C (14 to 21.6 °F) in most parts of China from Monday to Thursday, February 22. Additionally, parts of Hunan, Guizhou Province, and northeast China are forecasted to experience temperature drops of more than 20 °C (36 °F).
Largest winter snowfall since 1975 and severe cold leave nearly 668 000 livestock dead in Mongolia - (video)Mongolia has experienced its heaviest snowfall since 1975 this winter, according to an announcement by the Mongolian government. Disaster relief efforts were initiated on February 19, focusing on providing essential aid, including food, fuel, and livestock feed, to affected communities. The extreme weather, characterized by severe colds and blizzards, has already resulted in one fatality and has taken a significant toll on livestock, with nearly 668 000 animals perishing as of February 18. The loss of livestock is a critical blow to the country’s economy and the livelihoods of its largely pastoral population, who depend on their animals for food, transportation, and income. The harsh winter conditions have not only endangered human lives but have also threatened the sustainability of traditional nomadic lifestyles. In response, the Mongolian government has initiated comprehensive disaster relief efforts starting on February 19. These efforts aim to provide essential aid to the affected areas, including the distribution of food, fuel for heating, and feed for the surviving livestock.
Tropical Storm “Akará” forms off Rio de Janeiro as first TS in South Atlantic since 2019 - On February 16, 2024, the Brazilian Navy identified a subtropical depression ESE of Rio de Janeiro, which intensified into Tropical Storm “Akará” by February 19. Akará is the first named tropical storm to develop in the South Atlantic Ocean since Iba in 2019 and the basin’s first named storm in February since Bapo in 2015. The system is expected to continue intensifying, but remain well away from Brazil. Initially identified as a subtropical depression on February 16, the system transitioned into a tropical cyclone two days later. By the early hours of February 19, it had strengthened into a tropical storm, earning the name Akará from the Brazilian Navy. This event is particularly noteworthy as Akará is the first named tropical storm in the South Atlantic Ocean since Iba in 2019, and it marks the basin’s first named storm in February since Bapo in 2015. The naming of such storms follows the official list of anomalous cyclones (subtropical or tropical) predicted by the Navy for the coast of Brazil, with Akará being the first name on the new list. Akará, named after a type of fish in the Tupi language, is expected to continue its intensification but remain well away from Brazil, posing no threat of making landfall according to global weather forecast models analyzed by MetSul Meteorologia. At 23:30 UTC on February 18, Akará’s center was located about 580 km (360 miles) SSE of Rio de Janeiro and 690 km (429 miles) E of Florianopolis. The storm had maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h (45 mph), with a minimum barometric pressure of 1 000 hPa, and was moving southwest. This development is one of the rare instances of a tropical storm forming along the Brazilian coast, as highlighted by MetSul meteorologists, with only a few similar events recorded this century. “The occurrence of tropical storms in Brazil’s coastal regions is a rarity, with only four events noted in the 21st century, including the notorious Catarina in 2004 and Anita in 2010, which some classify as a subtropical storm,” MetSul meteorologists said. More recently, Iba in March 2019 and an unnamed tropical storm (01Q) in February 2021 were recorded, neither causing significant damage. The last named anomalous cyclone off the Brazilian coast was Subtropical Storm “Yakecan” in May 2022. Unlike Yakecan, which caused damage and power outages affecting around a million people in Rio Grande do Sul, Akará is expected to stay in the open sea, steering clear of the coast and sparing the region from its potential impact.
Impacts of energetic particle precipitation (aurora borealis) on winter weather variations - A recent study by the University of Oulu, Finland, has revealed a significant connection between the aurora borealis, or Northern Lights, and variations in winter temperatures and electricity consumption in Finland, highlighting the role of energetic particle precipitation in affecting regional climate and energy demands. The University of Oulu’s Space Climate Research Group has long been fascinated by the aurora borealis’ beauty and its broader implications. Their research focuses on how this spectacular phenomenon influences chemical changes in the atmosphere, leading to ozone depletion in the polar stratosphere during winter. This depletion, in turn, affects the polar vortex—a powerful wind circulating around the polar region, which significantly impacts winter weather across northern Europe and, notably, Finland. Associate Professor Timo Asikainen explains, “The breaking up of the polar vortex, often triggered by weak particle precipitation, allows cold Arctic air to plunge southward, leading to the cold spells Finland and Northern Europe experience.” The research team’s models had already anticipated the likelihood of the polar vortex breaking up this winter, showing the predictive potential of their studies. The Space Climate Group’s latest study, the first of its kind, demonstrates that energetic particle precipitation from space can explain up to 50% of the inter-annual variations in Finland’s winter electricity consumption. During the winter months of January through March, this variability accounted for about 14% of the average electricity consumption level in Finland. Doctoral researcher Veera Juntunen highlighted the study’s groundbreaking findings, noting, “Strong particle precipitation correlates with higher winter temperatures and, consequently, lower electricity consumption in Finland, and vice versa.” This relationship was discerned through meticulous analysis of comprehensive electricity consumption statistics provided by the Finnish Energy Association, dating from the 1990s to the present. The study also delved into the influence of the equatorial stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) winds on this phenomenon. The significant effects of particle precipitation on the polar vortex and, subsequently, on Finland’s weather and energy consumption, are particularly pronounced during winters with easterly QBO winds. This is attributed to the way these winds facilitate the movement of large-scale atmospheric waves into the polar stratosphere, where they interact with particle precipitation to impact the polar vortex.
Ocean Heating Breaks Record, Again, With Disastrous Outcomes for the Planet - Human actions are rapidly changing the world’s oceans, whether through overfishing, pollution or coastal development. But among the most intense pressures placed on the seas right now is humanity’s ongoing burning of fossil fuels, pumping dangerous amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, which in turn has pushed sea temperatures to record levels.The global ocean, which covers 70% of the planet’s surface, currently absorbs 90% of the solar heat trapped by humanity’s carbon emissions. This greatly moderates rising atmospheric temperatures and helps temper the intensity of the climate crisis. Put another way, the world would be a lot hotter by now if the ocean wasn’t taking in all this heat. But the ocean’s absorption of this anthropogenic heat still has serious consequences. One clear result has been an unprecedented rise in global sea temperatures, which has placed strains on marine life and biological processes, and increased extreme weather on land. Rising ocean temperatures are also resulting in an escalation in marine heat waves, placing even more pressure on marine organisms and ecosystems already struggling to cope with other changes brought on by fossil fuel burning, such as ocean acidification, along with other human stressors. Without urgent action to curb carbon emissions, experts say ocean heat will continue to increase, which will, in turn, impact the very planetary systems necessary for humanity’s survival and for maintaining life on Earth as we know it. New research published Jan. 11 in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences finds that the oceans are hotter than they’ve ever been in modern times. The sea’s heightened temperatures have now smashed previous heat records for at least seven years in a row (or eight years depending on data interpretation), according to data collected by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Similar data was collected by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), reinforcing these findings. “It’s year after year that we’re setting heat records in the ocean,” study co-author John Abraham, professor of thermal sciences at the University of St. Thomas in Minnesota, told Mongabay. “The fact that this process is continuing apace every single year is illuminating for us because it drives home how the oceans are connected to global warming, and how we can use the oceans to measure how fast the earth is warming.” In 2023, the oceans absorbed about 287 zettajoules of heat, which Abraham says is the equivalent of eight Hiroshima atomic bombs detonating every second of every day into the ocean. Last year’s heat was 15 zettajoules greater than what the ocean absorbed in 2022. The researchers detected increased heat in many parts of the ocean — from the surface to a depth of 2,000 meters (6,600 feet) — though Abraham says higher temperatures were most evident in the surface waters, or the top 20 m (66 ft). During the first half of 2023, temperatures were 0.1° Celsius (0.2° Fahrenheit) above the 2022 temperatures; over the second half of the year, they were 0.3°C (0.5°F) higher than 2022 temperatures, according to the study. “We really blew the record off ocean surface temperatures last year,” Abraham said. “It was just mind-boggling hot.”According to Abraham, the surface temperatures were particularly high in 2023 due to the combined effect of long-term global warming and a strong El Niño climate pattern currently playing out. Higher-than-normal sea temperatures have widespread effects across the ocean. They cause sea level rise as the water experiences thermal expansion. They can also stress or kill coral reef systems, accelerate the melting of polar sea ice, redistribute fish populations, and deplete oxygen levels.They can also influence what happens on land. Once the surface of the sea is hot, it creates the perfect conditions for terrestrial extreme weather events to develop, such as intense rainfall, droughts, and severely destructive storms.“The oceans drive weather,” Abraham said. “As the oceans warm, the air flows over the oceans and heat and moisture gets transferred. So it’s the oceans that help heat the atmosphere and the oceans that provide the humidity to the atmosphere … and weather is dictated by temperature and humidity.” With oceans and atmosphere experiencing record heat, extreme weather events are happening with more frequency and intensity. In 2023, for instance, there was a spate of extreme events, including deadly heat waves in China, Europe and North America, an extreme fire season in Canada, and record-breaking rain and flooding in Libya, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Australia.“Our weather is going back and forth like a swing between extremes,” Abraham said. “And those extremes are getting bigger. And those extremes are costly.” Just how costly are extreme weather events? A study published in Nature Communications last year suggested that the damage from extreme weather events costs about $16 million every hour. Other data showed that in 2023, the U.S. alone saw 28 billion-dollar weather and climate disasters, totaling $92.9 billion in damages, surpassing the previous record of 22 billion-dollar events in 2020.
Keeling Curve Surpasses 426.5 ppm: A Call for Urgent Climate Action -The Keeling Curve has reached an unprecedented 426.5 ppm, signaling a rapid increase in CO2 levels. This record underscores the urgent need for global action to address climate change and its far-reaching implications. In an era where the environment forms the crux of global discussions, a recent revelation by the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego casts a long shadow. The Keeling Curve, a venerable gauge of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, has surged to a new record, breaching the 426.5 parts per million (ppm) threshold. This milestone, unprecedented in the modern era, underscores a stark acceleration in the accumulation of atmospheric CO2. Recorded on February 16, 2024, this figure not only shatters previous records but also signals a potential shift in the trajectory of global climate patterns.Since its inception in 1958, the Keeling Curve has stood as a testament to meticulous scientific observation, charting the ebb and flow of carbon dioxide in our planet's atmosphere. Originating from the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii, this continuous record has provided undeniable evidence of the rapid rise in CO2 levels since the dawn of the industrial age. The curve's breach of the 400 ppm mark in 2013 was a wake-up call to the world; its latest leap beyond 425 ppm is a clarion call for urgent action. Ralph Keeling, the current director of the program established by his father, Charles David Keeling, remarked on the significance of this year's findings. The surge to 426.5 ppm, facilitated by a strong wind shift, portends a monthly average in May that could well exceed the 425 ppm mark. This event, occurring several months ahead of the curve's usual annual peak, suggests not just an anomaly but a trend. A trend indicative of an accelerating pace in the growth of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, with far-reaching implications for global climate policy and action.The crossing of this threshold is more than a symbolic milestone. It embodies the culmination of decades of fossil fuel combustion, deforestation, and other human activities contributing to the greenhouse effect. The implications of this continuous upward trajectory of CO2 levels are profound, affecting everything from global temperatures and weather patterns to ecosystems and biodiversity. As the planet warms, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, from hurricanes to heatwaves, are expected to increase, posing significant challenges tosocieties worldwide.In the shadow of this new record, the message is clear: the window for effective action on climate change is narrowing. The latest readings from the Keeling Curve serve not only as a record of atmospheric conditions but as a gauge of human impact on the planet. It underscores the urgent need for concerted global efforts to reduce carbon emissions and mitigate the effects of climate change. As we stand at this pivotal moment, the path we choose will shape the legacy of our generation and those that follow. The time for action is now, lest we breach more than just atmospheric thresholds.
Hockey Stick Trial: Science Dies in a DC Courtroom - “Science,” wrote the philosopher Karl Popper, “is one of the very few human activities – perhaps the only one – in which errors are systematically criticised and fairly often, in time, corrected. Now, a six-person jury in Washington, DC has refuted Popper’s formulation of the uniqueness of science, finding in favor of climate scientist Michael Mann in the defamation suit he brought against Rand Simberg and Mark Steyn dating back to 2012. Central to Mann’s case was his attempt to reconstruct global temperature over the previous millennium – the iconic “hockey stick” graph. The graph shows global temperatures purportedly falling for centuries and suddenly shooting upwards with the advent of the Industrial Revolution. Mann’s hockey stick representation was derived principally from selected tree ring data based on the assumption that tree rings constitute accurate proxies for temperature and are not contaminated by confounding factors such as rainfall, seasonal variability, and levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The results that Mann produced are also sensitive to decisions on and application of statistical techniques. There can be little doubt of the hockey stick’s historic importance in the development and propagation of what became the dominant scientific paradigm of climate change. In 2001, the hockey stick was given star billing in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Third Assessment Report, where it appeared twice in the synthesis report, twice more in a diagram combining past and future temperature change, and again on the third page of the Working Group I Summary for Policy Makers. For Mann, the hockey stick was his ticket to climate super-stardom. However, Mann’s hockey stick aroused criticism from its first appearance. In response, Mann engaged in distinctly anti-Popperian efforts to suppress all criticism of the hockey stick and discussion of rival temperature reconstructions that might raise awkward questions about its scientific validity. A rival reconstruction by fellow paleo-climatologist Keith Briffa, for example, derived from tree ring data obtained from northern Canada and Siberia, showed a noticeable decline in temperatures over the latter part of the 20th century – Briffa then wrote a paper for Science comparing the rival reconstructions. As we know from the Climategate emails leaked in 2009, Mann contacted the editor of Science. “Better that nothing appear, than something unacceptable to us,” he wrote, Such shenanigans are small beer compared to the surgery undertaken on the graphs of proxy reconstructions showcased in the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report. To deal with Briffa’s question-inducing temperature decline, Mann, as lead chapter author, and a tight-knit team resorted to the simple expedient of truncating adverse data that could serve as a “potential distraction/detraction,” Mann explained to his colleagues, and thereby hiding the temperature decline shown by Briffa’s proxies when temperatures were rising. The gambit also involved using actual temperature data to smooth the proxy curves in what became known as “Mike’s Nature trick,” something Mann had done previously in a paper submitted to that journal.
Major network outages in U.S. following two X-class solar flares - A widespread network outage was reported in the United States on Thursday morning, February 22, 2024, following two major eruptions on the Sun, an X1.8 flare at 23:07 UTC on February 21 and X1.7 at 06:32 UTC on February 22. Both erupted from Active Region 3590. The main question everyone in the space weather community was confronted with today is whether these flares could have affected the telecommunication networks in the United States, causing major outages. These outages primarily affected cellular service, particularly for users of AT&T, with tens of thousands of their users reporting issues according to Downdetector.com. Other carriers like Verizon, T-Mobile, UScellular, and Cricket Wireless were also affected to a lesser extent. The outages also affected companies like Starlink, Consumer Cellular, Boost Mobile, Google, US Cellular, Spectrum, Xfinity, OpenAI, Facebook, Microsoft and many others. The impact was felt in major cities across the US, including San Francisco, Houston, Chicago, Los Angeles, New York, and Boston, causing disruptions to communication, internet access, and even emergency services in some areas. Most carriers reported full or partial restoration of service later in the day. While there were reports of isolated incidents in other parts of the world around the same time, these seem to be unrelated to the US outage and were likely caused by localized issues with specific providers or infrastructure. According to NOAA SWPC, solar flares can affect communication systems, radar, and the Global Positioning System, based on the intensity of the eruption and associated phenomena, but it is highly unlikely that these flares contributed to the widely reported cellular network outages. Many solar astrophysicists agree. “Some people are attributing cell network outages (AT&T, Verizon) in the U.S to last night’s X-class solar flare. However, flares only cause radio degradation on the dayside of the Earth. As you can see below, the U.S was not affected by the event. So it’s just a coincidence,” said solar astrophysicist Dr. Ryan French. While it’s true that radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over the Indian Ocean at the time of the X1.7 flare, the largest effects of the X1.8 event on February 21 (some 7 hours before the X1.7) were much closer to the United States, but still mostly over the Pacific Ocean.
Is An X-Class Solar Flare Responsible For Nationwide Cell Outage? --AT&T and other major mobile network operators are making progress in restoring service to customers after a nationwide outage began in the early morning hours. "Some of our customers are experiencing wireless service interruptions this morning. Our network teams took immediate action and so far three-quarters of our network has been restored. We are working as quickly as possible to restore service to remaining customers," AT&T said in a statement to NBC News. Although AT&T took steps to resolve network issues, the company did not disclose the cause of the outage.According to the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, there were no indications of a cyberattack. "CISA is aware of the reports and we are working closely with AT&T to understand the cause of the outage and its impacts, and stand ready to offer any assistance needed," Eric Goldstein, the agency's executive assistant director for cybersecurity, said in an emailed statement. One theory suggests that space weather could be responsible for the nationwide cell outage.A “strong solar flare" caused cellular outages affecting AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile customers across the U.S. pic.twitter.com/UBktAa3K3x Around the time of the outage, two X-solar solar flares were reported by NASA. Yes, there was a strong solar flare reported around midnight. But, is it connected to the cell phone outage? Not impossible and the timing is interesting, but not sure we can say that just yet. We'll keep investigating!
Major X6.3 solar flare erupts from Region 3590 - A major X6.3 solar flare erupted from Active Region 3590 at 22:34 UTC on February 22, 2024. The event started at 22:08 UTC and ended at 22:43. This is now the second X-class solar flare of the day (UTC), the third in 24 hours, the strongest solar flare of Solar Cycle 25, and the 26th strongest since 1996. It follows X1.8 at 23:07 UTC on February 21 and X1.7 at 06:32 UTC on February 22, 2024. A 10cm Radio Burst lasting 11 minutes and with peak flux of 240 sfu was associated with the event. A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications. Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over the Pacific Ocean at the time of the flare. Analysis of this event is still in progress.
ESA’s ERS-2 satellite set to reenter Earth’s atmosphere on February 21, 2024 - The European Space Agency’s (ESA) Earth observation satellite, ERS-2, is scheduled for atmospheric reentry on February 21, 2024. Launched in April 1995, ERS-2 has been instrumental in monitoring Earth’s surface and natural disasters for nearly 30 years. The European Space Agency’s (ESA) ERS-2 satellite, once hailed as the most sophisticated Earth observation spacecraft developed by Europe, is slated for reentry into Earth’s atmosphere at 15:41 UTC on February 21, 2024, with a variability of +/- 11.5 hours, as of 16:30 UTC today. This uncertainty is due primarily to the influence of unpredictable solar activity, which affects the density of Earth’s atmosphere and therefore the drag experienced by the satellite. This variability introduces uncertainty into the satellite’s final descent, rendering it uncontrolled and leaving the exact landing location unknown. The lack of remaining fuel negates the possibility of guiding the satellite to a predetermined, safe impact point in the ocean. Through a series of 66 deorbiting maneuvers in July and August 2011, ERS-2’s altitude was reduced from 785 km (488 miles) to approximately 573 km (356 miles), ensuring a quicker reentry and minimizing collision risks. The maneuvers used the satellite’s remaining fuel, leading to its passivation in September of the same year. Despite the careful planning behind the satellite’s end-of-life strategy, there remains a slight risk that fragments, potentially as large as 52 kg (115 pounds), could survive the reentry process and impact Earth’s surface. The satellite is expected to begin fragmenting at about 80 km (50 miles) above the Earth, posing a minimal but existent risk to people and property.
Massive ExxonMobil carbon capture project in Eastern Montana reviewed - ExxonMobil’s “Snowy River Carbon Dioxide Sequestration Project” would span 110,000 subsurface acres between Ekalaka and the Montana-Wyoming border. There, over 20 years, the company would pump an estimated 150 million tons of carbon dioxide from unidentified sources into a rock formation more than a mile beneath the surface. The project has raised concerns about well water contamination and wildlife endangerment, as well as risks to local livestock operations and the possible leakage of carbon dioxide resulting from earthquakes. Nearly all the subsurface land involved is public. The Bureau of Land Management in 2022 made carbon dioxide storage on public lands a part of a comprehensive strategy for addressing climate change. "They basically said they had given up on reducing carbon and they were going to focus on carbon capture instead," said Michael Garrity of the Alliance for the Wild Rockies. In November, the Alliance asked BLM to do a full environmental impact study of the project to better address the environmental risks. BLM's first look at Snow Creek limited the review of wildlife impacts to right of way, with around pipelines was limited to a width of about 50 feet. Area ranchers raised concerns about carbon dioxide acidifying water, making it undrinkable for livestock, according to a BLM summary of public concerns raised last fall.One person raised the issue of a carbon dioxide pipeline owned by Denbury that in 2020 ruptured in Mississippi, sickening 45 people, most of whom were hospitalized. BLM is accepting public comment on Snowy River through March 18.The area has been eyed for carbon dioxide storage since at least 2010 when storage in the nearby Belle Creek area was developed to accept carbon dioxide from the Lost Cabin and Shute Creek gas processing facilities in Wyoming. That project, like Snowy River, was developed by Denbury Onshore, which was purchased for $4.9 billion by ExxonMobil in the second half of 2023.Denbury went bankrupt in 2020. Exxon, when it announced its purchase, cited Denbury's carbon sequestration work as beneficial to ExxonMobil's goal of lowering carbon emissions. The Bureau of Land Management is taking public comment on the Snowy River Carbon Dioxide Sequestration Project, 100,000 subsurface acre project along Greencore Pipeline, which delivers industrial carbon dioxide from Wyoming to oil wells in southeast Montana and North Dakota. Shute Creek is an Exxon property long reliant on Denbury for the carbon capture services. Exxon billed Shute Creek as the world’s largest carbon capture facility, though the amount of carbon sequestered was dependent on what petroleum companies purchased to pump into oil wells to enhance recovery.As the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis found in 2022, half of Shute Creek’s carbon pollution wasn’t being captured. A modest 3% of the pollution was being sequestered and not sold.Lost Cabin, now owned by Contango, with Shute Creek anchored a carbon capture pipeline that runs diagonally across Wyoming and delivered Cowboy State carbon dioxide to Denbury and Montana. But Lost Cabin’s carbon capture hasn’t been consistent.
Alaska legislators give closer look at bill aimed at storing carbon emissions underground - Alaska legislators are considering a bill proposed by Gov. Mike Dunleavy last year to store carbon emissions, which could have implications from Cook Inlet to the North Slope. According to industry experts, it could allow a wide range of new opportunities and enable the continuation of existing ones. House Bill 50, the Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage Act, would allow the state to lease subsurface rights for the purpose of storing carbon dioxide, the largest contributor to human-caused climate warming. Combined with generous federal subsidies, the bill could enable everything from enhanced oil recovery using carbon dioxide to the sequestration of emissions from new coal-fired power generation to removing carbon dioxide directly from the air. According to a consultant hired by the state, a carbon capture framework could even make it economic for the state to export North Slope natural gas not as gas but as hydrogen or ammonia, with the carbon dioxide from processing sequestered underground. The legislation could also help maintain existing fossil fuel production and justify new development amid pressure to reduce carbon emissions. “Innovation, rather than elimination, is the future of coal,” Usibelli Coal Mine executive Lorali Simon wrote in a letter of support for the bill. Haley Paine, deputy director of the state’s Division of Oil and Gas, said the bill was aimed both at creating a new revenue stream for the state by commercializing the geologic “pore space” of low-grade coal seams, saline aquifers and depleted oil reservoirs, and at supporting existing development. “It’s a little bit of all-of-the-above,” she said in an interview. HB 50 was introduced last year and was discussed by the House Resources Committee in nine hearings and the House Finance Committee in five. The finance committee took the bill up again in late January. The Senate Resources Committee also held several hearings on its version, Senate Bill 49. Last year, the Legislaturepassed related legislation aimed at taking advantage of the market for carbon offsets through forest and other land-based projects. In testimony, officials from the Department of Natural Resources and hired consultants described the carbon storage market as poised to skyrocket from almost nothing a few years ago. States are hurrying to develop regulatory frameworks and take over regulation of carbon dioxide injection wells from the federal Environmental Protection Agency. Alaska, officials argue, is strategically suited to take advantage of carbon capture and storage because of its geology and Alaska’s ownership of subsurface rights. The idea of capturing carbon dioxide and storing it underground has been around for decades, but commercial projects have been hampered by high costs, technical challenges and the lack of a financial motivation to sequester carbon dioxide. Now caps on carbon pollution, carbon taxes, the carbon offset market, corporate goals to produce “net-zero” carbon emissions, and government incentives have caused interest in carbon sequestration to soar. A federal tax credit offers $85 per ton of carbon dioxide captured from an industrial facility and sequestered underground. A lesser tax credit is available for carbon dioxide used for enhanced oil recovery and a larger credit is available for projects that remove the gas directly from the air and sequester it.
Federal agencies scramble to finish Biden’s rules — and protect his legacy from Trump - President Joe Biden’s allies are getting antsy about his administration’s pileup of unfinished environmental rules — especially with the threat that a second Trump presidency could undo them all. Biden’s agencies are facing a deadline this spring to finish some of their most important regulations to ensure that a Republican Congress and White House can’t erase them next year, including a crackdown on power plants’ climate pollution, protections for endangered species and a bid to protect federal employees from politically motivated firings. Complicating matters is the fact that the deadline won’t be known until months after rules are completed. Advocates of tougher environmental regulations watched as then-President Donald Trump used a previously seldom-invoked statute to unwind more than a dozen of the Obama administration’s rules in the opening months of 2017. They don’t want that to happen again. The scramble to finish the regulations is crucial to determining how much of Biden’s ambitious legacy may survive past the November election, as the two likely nominees promote sharply contrasting views on climate change, green energy and the power of federal agencies. The Biden administration has promised action on a lot of fronts, and how soon it rolls those rules out could determine how easy they are for a future administration to unravel. Policy insiders and Biden administration allies are urging agencies’ rule writers to keep their eye on the clock. “I am acutely aware of the calendar, and I’m checking on status regularly,” said Paul Billings, the national senior vice president for public policy at the American Lung Association. “In a month, my hair may be on fire.” Lisa Frank, who leads the Washington legislative office at the advocacy group Environment America, said she’s feeling “anxious excitement” over the raft of expected rules. “The Biden administration is poised to deliver some of the biggest gains on clean air, clean water and safeguarding nature that we’ve seen in years,” Frank said. That’s on top of “the most significant progress by a very long shot” in addressing climate change. “Obviously, there’s still a lot of work to do to make all that progress,” she said. James Goodwin, a senior policy analyst at the liberal-leaning Center for Progressive Reform, said there is no reason agencies cannot get their rules done at this point in Biden’s term. “They know this stuff cold,” Goodwin said. “There are no impediments. It’s pedal to the metal time.”
Second Trump presidency would axe Biden climate agenda, gut energy regulators (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden has spent years implementing programs to fight climate change by advancing renewable energy and imposing tougher regulations on fossil fuels. Much of that work could go up in smoke if his likely rival Donald Trump beats him at the polls in November, according to Republican policy advisers. Former President Trump, who is on track to clinch the Republican nomination, would re-enter the White House with a raft of executive orders to expand oil, gas and coal development, they said. That would include ending a pause on new LNG export permits, scrapping electric vehicle mandates and once again withdrawing the United States from a United Nations pact to fight global warming, they said. Those short-term actions would be followed by longer-term efforts to shrink environmental regulation and government bureaucracy, and – depending on the makeup of Congress at the time - to unwind provisions of Biden's signature climate law, the Inflation Reduction Act. Some advisers are also pushing Trump to turn over some federally-owned land, potentially including national forests, to the states, said one person involved in those discussions. Reuters spoke with a dozen Republican policy consultants and former Trump administration officials who are helping lay the groundwork for a second Trump presidency to sketch out the administration's likely approach to energy and environmental issues. Five of the sources told Reuters they had been in contact with the Trump campaign since it launched its White House bid, while others said they were preparing detailed policy papers and staffing ideas aligned with Trump's campaign rhetoric that they hoped he would use if elected. The policy blueprint shows how a second Trump presidency would bring about another U-turn in U.S. policies governing how the country produces and uses energy, and how the biggest historical emitter of greenhouse gases deals with the climate threat. The talking points also tap a deep U.S. political divide between a progressive left pushing for a move away from fossil fuels, and a conservative right incensed by environmental regulations they say kill blue-collar jobs. "This is a great way to split off working class Americans from the Democrats, especially unionized households," said Stephen Moore, an economist and fellow at the right-wing Heritage Foundation, who has advised Trump's campaign in an unofficial capacity in recent months. "It's a teed-up political issue for the Republicans. Trump gets that totally." Among the other people Trump speaks with directly to discuss energy issues, according to the sources, are his former National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow, former Interior Secretary David Bernhardt, former Energy Secretary Rick Perry, former senior adviser Kevin Hassett and oil mogul Harold Hamm. Those people either did not respond or declined to comment for this article.
Biden Administration Is Said to Slow Early Stage of Shift to Electric Cars - In a concession to automakers and labor unions, the Biden administration intends to relax elements of one of its most ambitious strategies to combat climate change, limits on tailpipe emissions that are designed to get Americans to switch from gas-powered cars to electric vehicles, according to three people familiar with the plan.Instead of essentially requiring automakers to rapidly ramp up sales of electric vehicles over the next few years, the administration would give car manufacturers more time, with a sharp increase in sales not required until after 2030, these people said. They asked to remain anonymous because the regulation has not been finalized. The administration plans to publish the final rule by early spring.The change comes as President Biden faces intense crosswinds as he runs for re-election while trying to confront climate change. He is aiming to cut carbon dioxide emissions from gasoline-powered vehicles, which make up the largest single source of greenhouse gases emitted by the United States.At the same time, Mr. Biden needs cooperation from the auto industry and political support from the unionized auto workers who backed him in 2020 but now worry that an abrupt transition to electric vehicles would cost jobs. Meanwhile, consumer demand has not been what automakers hoped, with potential buyers put off by sticker prices and the relative scarcity of charging stations.Sensing an opening, former President Donald J. Trump, the Republican front-runner, has seized on electric cars, falsely warning the public that they “don’t work” and telling autoworkers that Mr. Biden’s policies are “lunacy” that he would extinguish on “the first day” of his return to the White House.
Another Green Vehicle Pipe Dream Explodes Like The Hindenburg - It would be impossible to estimate the number of stories we’ve seen over the last 30 years loudly proclaiming that hydrogen cars are the real future in the transportation space. And hey, you must admit there is some logic to it, as long as you don’t look too deeply into the problem. After all, hydrogen is by far the most abundant element in the universe. It is also highly combustible, as the passengers on the Hindenburg found out the hard way in 1937. Oh, the humanity! So, it’s everywhere, it’s combustible, what could possibly be the holdup? Thirty years later, we have discovered that the array of holdups is almost endless, starting with how to source the trillions of dollars in capital that would be needed to build out all the infrastructure that would have to be constructed to facilitate a mass conversion away from gas powered ICE cars. Then, you would need trillions more dollars to convert old factories or build new ones to manufacture billions of cars. Then, you’d probably need trillions more to re-jigger all the global supply chains to move hydrogen all over the world on ships. It’s a lot of steel, a lot of concrete, a lot of new ships, a lot of new, safer rail cars, a lot of new pipeline infrastructure, none of which currently exists, and at the end of the day, a ruinous amount of money to pay for it all. Contrary to popular myth, you can’t just start moving hydrogen in existing natural gas pipelines, because the hydrogen molecules are far tinier than methane molecules, and those existing pipelines would leak like thousand-mile-long sieves and blow a whole lot of stuff up if you tried doing that. On top of everything else, most hydrogen exists in nature as part of a compound like methane (CH4), and it takes more energy to separate out the hydrogen molecules than they will ultimately provide. Bottom line: This is all very hard and complex and requires more money than most companies are willing to even try to source and invest. And then there’s Shell. Shell is one company that, in response to outside pressures including those from the ESG investor community and even Dutch court decisions, has invested in various hydrogen-related projects in the US and Europe. One location in the US is California, the green virtue-signaling capital of the universe outside of Germany.Of the 55 hydrogen refueling stations extant in California, Shell had until recently been the operator of seven of them. But it’s a hard business to be in, and recently, Shell’s management finally decided to give up this particular ghost.As reported by Hydrogen Insight, Shell announced on Feb. 7 that it was permanently closing all seven of its hydrogen stations, citing “supply complications and other external market factors” as the reason.Supply complications? External market factors? Man, nobody could’ve seen those coming!“This decision could also reflect a lack of demand,” the story’s author notes. Yet another factor nobody could have foreseen!
European Commission Allots $7.4B for Hydrogen Infrastructure - The European Commission (EC) is allotting up to $7.43 billion (EUR 6.9 billion) in public funding for hydrogen infrastructure projects. The EC approved the third Important Project of Common European Interest (IPCEI), which aims to boost the supply of renewable energy in the European Union (EU), reduce dependence on natural gas, and help achieve the objectives of the European Green Deal and the REPowerEU Plan. The project, called IPCEI Hy2Infra, was jointly prepared and notified by seven member states: France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, and Slovakia, according to a news release from the EC. The public funding from the member states is expected to unlock $5.81 billion (EUR 5.4 billion) in private investments. As part of the IPCEI, 32 companies with activities in one or more member states, including small and medium-sized enterprises, will participate in 33 projects, according to the release. The IPCEI Hy2Infra project will help support a wide part of the hydrogen value chain, including the deployment of 3.2 gigawatts (GW) of large-scale electrolyzers for renewable hydrogen production and large-scale hydrogen storage facilities with capacity of at least 370 gigawatt-hours (GWh). The project will also cover the deployment of new and repurposed hydrogen transmission and distribution pipelines of approximately 1.677.7 miles (2,700 kilometers) and the construction of handling terminals and related port infrastructure for liquid organic hydrogen carriers to handle 6,000 metric tons of hydrogen per year. The EC said that several projects are expected to be implemented in the near future, with various large-scale electrolyzers expected to be operational between 2026 and 2028, and pipelines between 2027 and 2029. The overall completion of projects is planned for 2029, with timelines varying depending on projects and companies. Further, the technical knowledge and experience acquired during the construction and first years of operation of the projects will be widely shared by participating companies through publications, conferences, and joint recommendations for the development of operational rules and technical standards. “As a result, positive spill-over effects will be generated throughout Europe, beyond the companies and member states that are part of the IPCEI”, the EC noted.
Chicago launches climate lawsuit against oil industry - Chicago filed suit Tuesday against six oil companies and an influential industry ally, joining the ranks of local governments looking to hold fossil fuel producers financially accountable for the effects of climate change.The lawsuit filed in Cook County Circuit Court accuses the companies, their subsidiaries and industry trade association the American Petroleum Institute of waging a campaign to discredit climate science and mislead the public about the dangers of burning fossil fuels. While defendants have promoted and profited from their deceptive conduct, the city and its residents have spent and will continue to spend substantial sums to recover from the effects of climate change,” the lawsuit says, noting that Chicago is facing more frequent and intense storms, flooding, droughts and extreme heat.
Boeing Tells Oil Majors to Scale Up SAF Production - Boeing Co. accused the world’s biggest oil companies of doing too little to produce sustainable jet fuel as frustration inside the aviation industry grows about the lack of supply. Sustainable aviation fuel, made from waste oils and agricultural feedstock, can cut carbon emissions from air travel by as much as 80 percent, according to the airline sector. An enormous ramp-up in production is essential to give the industry a chance of reaching its target of carbon neutrality by 2050. Global supply of SAF, as the sustainable fuel is commonly called, meets barely 1 percent of the aviation industry’s requirements. Major oil producers “need to lean in harder” and crank up production, Robert Boyd, Boeing’s head of sustainability for the Asia-Pacific region, said in an interview at the Singapore Airshow on Tuesday. Smaller and less-established green fuel producers such as Neste Oyj and SkyNRG BV are doing a better job of building out a sustainable aviation fuel industry than well-resourced giants like Exxon Mobil Corp., according to Boyd. “I don’t think they’re doing enough,” he said of the traditional energy sector. The inadequate flow of SAF has been a major talking point at the air show. Lifting supply is also essential to making SAF more affordable for airlines. Conventional jet fuel is already one of the biggest costs for carriers, and SAF can be three to five times more expensive. Aviation’s transition to net zero will require an investment of as much as $5 trillion through 2050, much of it needed to increase sustainable fuel production, according to the International Air Transport Association. IATA chief Willie Walsh on Monday implored oil producers to make more low-emissions aviation fuel. Every drop that’s made will be bought, even at the current high price, Walsh said. Speaking at an aviation summit in Singapore, he described the airline industry’s struggle to decarbonize as an “existential issue.” At the same event, Exxon’s vice president for Asia-Pacific fuels, Ong Shwu Hoon, said the company is focused on making more low-emissions fuel for the transport industry, including aviation. The SAF supply chain requires more investment, she said. Exxon, she added, is learning to deal with the agricultural companies involved in the new process. Still, Haldane Dodd, executive director of the Air Transport Action Group, a Switzerland-based nonprofit working with the aviation industry to map out a path to net zero, maintains the energy industry isn’t doing enough. “If anybody has the capital, the expertise, the intelligence and the human resources to deliver this product, it’s them,” he said.
What will replace the Kingston Fossil Plant? Environmental groups seek renewable replacement to Roane County plant — The Tennessee Valley Authority has announced its plan to retire and replace the Kingston Fossil Plant by 2027.The plant was the site of the biggest industrial spill in U.S. history when a barrier ruptured in 2008, releasing 1.1 billion gallons of coal ash.TVA released an environmental impact statement regarding the retirement of the plant on Friday, Feb. 16. For Betty Johnson, it’s good news. Her husband, Tommy, worked on the cleanup of the ash spill and passed away in May 2023. He, along with other workers, suffered from multiple illnesses in the years following the ash spill and were at the center of lawsuits surrounding it.“It was really heartbreaking, a disaster, it was grief, it’s loneliness, it’s sad and they did it without knowing, working hard without knowing that their life was in danger,” Johnson said.She is glad that where she lives will no longer be powered by coal ash.“I’m so glad that TVA did step up now, after 15 years with the ash spill, decided to change over, it’s definitely going to be a plus for them, it’s definitely a plus for the public, that lives are going to be saved,” she said.In the environmental impact statement, TVA presented two replacement options for the coal-powered plant that were looked into. Option A is replacing it with a gas-powered plant, and Option B is replacing it with solar and battery-powered facilities across the region.Environmental groups like Tennessee Interfaith Power and Light contributed to public comment on the issue collected by TVA. This group and many others are supportive of ending coal-powered energy. However, according to TIPL President Courtney Shea, what it may be replaced with is still a cause for concern.“We’re very happy to see the Kingston Plant retired, but we oppose replacing it with gas fire-powered plants. TVA has moved towards gas fire power plants in the valley, they say they need it as an interim measure but there are other renewable measures they could take to meet our energy demands,” Shea said.Southern Alliance for Clean Energy Executive Director Dr. Stephen Smith echoed her concerns.“Coal is a fossil fuel, so taking it off is a good thing, but replacing it with another fossil fuel, fossil gas, is not a good thing,” he explained.
Appeals court tosses Obama-era federal coal leasing moratorium -A federal appeals court on Wednesday axed an Obama-era moratorium on new coal mine leasing on public lands.It did so by overturning a ruling from 2022 that revived the Obama-era freeze on auctioning off federally owned lands for coal mining.In 2022, a lower court ruled that in ending the coal leasing pause, the Trump administration had not completed an adequate environmental impact study, and that the pause should therefore be reinstated. But, this week, a panel of appellate judges vacated that ruling, deciding that the case was now moot. They said the case was moot because Biden administration Interior Secretary Deb Haaland had revoked the order by Trump-era secretary Ryan Zinke that ended the moratorium.Judges Ronald Gould, Jay Bybee and Daniel Bress told the lower court to dismiss the challenge to the Trump policy that was brought by environmental advocates, saying that their grievances are no longer the result of Zinke’s order. “While appellees may be dissatisfied with the government’s position that the Haaland Order did not revive the … moratorium, this does not provide a basis for concluding that a challenge to the defunct Zinke Order is live,” wrote the Clinton, Bush and Trump appointees. In 2021, Haaland rescinded the Zinke order, but stopped short of reimposing the Obama administration’s freeze. The department said at the time that it would instead continue to review a path forward on coal.
Save Ohio Parks files emergency stay to delay fracking bid approval --The Oil and Gas Land Management Commission (OGLMC) will meet Monday, Feb. 26 at 10:30 a.m.-but a Franklin County judge may stay its decisions to award oil and gas bids to frack Salt Fork State Park and Valley Run and Zepernick wildlife areas. EarthJustice and Ohio Environmental Council announced yesterday they filed an emergency stay to suspend and delay OGLMC orders to frack, pending a decision on the appeal by Save Ohio Parks, Buckeye Environmental Network, and Backcountry Hunters and Anglers of OGLMC's Nov. 15 decision to approve nominations of these areas for fracking.A decision by Court of Common Pleas Judge Jaiza Page on the emergency stay was requested by Friday, Feb. 25.The Feb. 26 OGLMC meeting venue has been changed from Ohio Department of Natural Resources headquarters to the Ohio Dept. of Public Safety, Charles D. Shipley Building Atrium, 1970 W. Broad St. in Columbus. Save Ohio Parks said there may be a heavy police presence at this venue at the Feb. 26 meeting and warns audience members of possible arrest if they cause disruptions. The Nov. 15 OGLMC meeting was called "raucous" by media after attendees shouted against fracking Ohio's state parks and public lands and protested the secretive nature of OGLMC's process that muzzled the public's right to speak at OGLMC meeting and engage in the democratic process.Save Ohio Parks is the statewide, all-volunteer group concerned about harm to the environment, people's health, methane air emissions and freshwater depletion and pollution from fracking Ohio's public lands."Unless the judge grants the emergency stay, the commission is likely to award oil and gas bids to frack our state parks and public lands at this meeting," said Loraine McCosker, steering committee member for Save Ohio Parks. "Anyone who cares about the damage fracking and fossil fuels cause to our health; climate; Ohio forests and natural places; our clean air and fresh water; or our democratic process should attend this meeting." Save Ohio Parks reminds the public that:
- . Natural gas fracking causes methane air emissions that are 80 percent more potent than greenhouse gases from carbon dioxide and accelerate climate change. Proximity to fracking well pads increases cancers, asthmas, fertility issues and other chronic illnesses.
- . Fracking uses up to 16 million gallons (equivalent to 24 Olympic swimming pools) of fresh water from lakes, rivers and streams per fracked well, per fracking. Unregulated toxic chemicals and sand are used to "crack" molecules of oil and natural gas deep underground. This process poisons the water with radioactive waste, resulting in "produced water" that must be stored in underground injection wells for generations-taking it out of our usable water supply forever.
- . These wells can leak, and do. At least three injection wells storing produced water are currently leaking near Athens, Ohio, posing an imminent danger to human health and the area's water supply.
- . Fracking destroys habitats for forests, plants, animals, fish and insects.
The Feb.26 OGLMC meeting was announced despite three pending legal actions in Ohio regarding fracking.These include a lawsuit challenging the legality of H.B. 507, which mandated fracking Ohio's public lands; a pending state investigation by Attorney General Dave Yost regarding 1,100 allegedly fraudulent, pro-fracking emails submitted to the OGLMC by an oil and gas industry PR firm; and an appeal of the Nov. 15 OGLMC decision to frack Salt Fork State Park and Zepernick and Valley Run wildlife areas."We want people to attend the OGLMC meeting, but also want to communicate the restrictiveness and potential volatility of this meeting," said McCosker. "OGLMC already told us that signs will not be allowed in the meeting area. Honestly, is that even legal in Ohio?"Also on Feb. 26, Save Ohio Parks has teamed with Third Act Ohio to organize a second event at 12:30 p.m. to protest insurance companies and their support of fossil fuels.Third Act Ohio engages seniors over 60 years old working to limit and fight climate change. The groups will rally on the public High Street sidewalk outside of Nationwide Insurance headquarters, One Nationwide Plaza, 1 W Nationwide Blvd, Columbus, OH 43215.The protest will highlight hypocritical tactics American insurance companies engage in that cancel homeowner insurance policies or re-sells them to other companies, which jack up homeowner premiums due to hurricane or flood risk.These same insurance companies use customer premium payments to invest in fossil fuels-- which contribute to increased extreme weather events and climate change.
Antis Ask Court for Emergency Stop to Drilling Under OH State Parks --Marcellus Drilling News - The money behind Big Green never stops. Where in the heck do they get it all? In November 2023, the Ohio Oil & Gas Land Management Commission (OGLMC) met in a public forum and voted to allow shale drilling under (not on top of) three different state-owned tracts of land: all 20,000 acres of Salt Fork State Park in Guernsey County, more than 300 acres of Valley Run Wildlife Area in Carroll County, and 66 acres of the Zepernick Wildlife Area in Columbiana County (see OGLMC Votes to Allow Fracking Under Ohio’s Salt Fork State Park). The vote set in motion a window for drillers to submit official proposals. The OGLMC is scheduled to meet next week to announce the winners. Antis have just filed a court motion to block that meeting.
Clean Energy Future Sells Lordstown Power Plant to ArcLight Capital - In June 2016, Massachusetts-based Clean Energy Future broke ground on an $800 million, 940-megawatt Utica gas-fired electric plant in Lordstown (Trumbull County), OH (see Lordstown Energy Center Breaks Ground on $890M Electric Plant). The plant was completed and went online in October 2018 (see Lordstown (OH) Energy Center Now Online, Generating 940 MW). In 2019, the super-efficient, low-emission plant won an award from POWER Magazine (see Utica-Fired Lordstown Energy Center Wins POWER Mag Top Plant Award). And that’s all we had heard about that project, which continues to hum along, producing electricity for 850,000 homes. Until now.Continue reading
19 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Feb 5 – 11 - Marcellus Drilling News - There were 19 new permits issued to drill in the Marcellus/Utica during the week of Feb. 5 – 11, versus 20 permits issued the prior week. Pennsylvania issued 13 new permits last week. Ohio issued 4 new permits. West Virginia issued 2 new permits last week. Range Resources scored the most new permits with 5 split between Allegheny and Beaver counties in PA. Chesapeake Energy received 4 permits in Bradford County, PA. Seneca Resources received 4 permits in Elk County, PA. Encino Energy received 4 permits in Guernsey County, OH. And Diversified Energy received 2 permits in Harrison County, WV. Allegheny County | Beaver County | Bradford County | Chesapeake Energy | Diversified Gas & Oil | Elk County | Encino Energy | Guernsey County | Harrison County |Range Resources Corp | Seneca Resources
DT Midstream 4Q – M-U Pipeline Operations Expand, Looking for M&A - Marcellus Drilling News -- DT Midstream (DTM), headquartered in Detroit, owns major assets in the Marcellus/Utica region and other regions like the Haynesville. DTM issued its fourth quarter 2023 update last Friday. The Marcellus/Utica region (which they call Northeast in the report) received several prominent mentions during a conference call with analysts. Also of note were comments by DT CEO David Slater, who said he’s positioning the company to take advantage of “bolt-on” opportunities in the regions where they operate. Meaning he’s on the lookout for mergers and acquisitions.
Bill That Would Ban New Fracking Method Advances in Assembly – The Legislative Gazette—A new bill (S.8357/A.8866) that would ban the use of carbon dioxide for fracking and gas extraction has been introduced in the Legislature following reports that homeowners in New York’s Southern Tier are being asked to lease their land by a fracking company.Southern Tier CO2 to Clean Energy Solutions, or Southern Tier Solutions, a Texas-based natural gas production company, started sending letters to residents last summer according to Assemblywoman Lupardo, D–Endwell, one of the bill’s co-sponsors. After learning that more than 6,000 residents received letters from the company, Lupardo and Senator Lea Webb, D–Binghamton, the Senate bill sponsor, sent a letter to the DEC in November requesting information about the company.The DEC responded in December, writing that the company had not reached out to the agency about the projects, and that if they were to receive permit applications from Southern Tier Solutions, there would be a “thorough review” to “ensure the agency’s decision is protective of public health and the environment.”“Our community has been through a lot when it comes to promises made about drilling in the Marcellus and Utica shale,” Assemblywoman Lupardo said. “In 2021 we permanently banned fracking with water, five years after it was initially banned by Executive Order. We now need to make sure that carbon dioxide is prohibited from being used in gas or oil extraction as well, by adding three words to our existing law. “We cannot allow a company with an unproven track record to move forward with this environmentally risky process.”While hydraulic fracking has been banned in New York since 2021 — and halted since 2014 via executive order — current law makes no mention of the use of CO2 for fuel extraction, a process that has been described as “experimental, dangerous and threatening to our water, health and climate,” by Food and Water Watch, an environmental group opposed to fracking. “It’s like conducting a chemistry experiment below our feet,” said Dr. Sandra Steingraber, a biologist who has extensively researched fracking and its effects, during a press conference. Dr. Steingraber stressed there is a lack of in-depth understanding about the interactions between CO2 and the shale formations Southern Tier Solutions is looking to drill into.Other risks associated with CO2 fracking include the creation of waste, leakage, habitat destruction, soil erosion, species die-offs, and increased risk of earthquakes, according to Steingraber and others who oppose the process.“Southern Tier Solutions doesn’t have adequate answers for questions about safety and contamination risks,” said Valdi Weiderpass, a chemical engineer and chair of the the Sierra Club’s Susquehanna Group. “The process of drilling and pressurizing CO2 and extracting gas releases countless chemicals and pollutants that can harm our food, water, air and bodies.”
‘Law & Order: SVU’ Star Chris Meloni’s Old Home Now at Center of Fracking Fraudster Drama --In the civil justice system, business fraud offenses are considered especially heinous. But the actors who play dedicated NYPD detectives can’t possibly know that one of their luxury condos will end up in the hands of a Georgian swindler. This is his story.Law & Order: SVU star Chris Meloni’s old flat in New York City is now at the center of some serious legal drama. It’s become the hideout for a fracking industry fraudster who duped a business partner in Texas, lost a court case there, and has been dodging the $1 million judgment for so long that he now owes three times that.David Sepiachvili and Natalia Sapir Antonni bought the actor’s Midtown Manhattan condo for $8.15 million eight years ago, according to the Observer. But on Friday, a scorned Russian investor named Nikolay Rastorguev sued the pair in New York state court, saying that Sepiachvili is now playing shell games to avoid losing the massive four-bedroom flat on prime real estate located just a block from Carnegie Hall.The lawsuit says that Sepiachvili recently transferred the condo’s ownership to Antonni to avoid payment—which has now ballooned with interest to $3 million.Sepiachvili, who hails from Russia’s neighboring country of Georgia, got into serious financial trouble shortly after buying the actor’s condo. According to federal court documents obtained by The Daily Beast, he accepted $800,000 in July 2016 from Rastorguev in exchange for shares of an oil-and-gas business venture called the Austin Chalk Development Project. But a court found that instead of holding up his end of the deal and acquiring the land he promised to buy, the money was routed in other directions—and Rastorguev never got it back.Harper Estes, a Texas lawyer who serves as a private judge when people resolve legal issues in arbitration, reviewed the case for a federal court and determined in 2021 that this was “garden variety fraud.” But he also called it a “rare case that supports the claim of civil conspiracy.”“Knowledge of the oil and gas industry or use of land brokerage firms cannot and does not justify in any way the taking of another’s funds under false pretenses and using the funds for other purposes,” he wrote.The arbitrator also noted something else: the scheme involved a company called Level One Advisors and another man with a similar name, David A. Sepiashvili. That confusing twist points to a New York Republican political operative who serves as an elected GOP district leader in Brooklyn and has previously worked for the city’s elections board. That second Sepiashvili—this time spelled with an “s”—lists himself on LinkedInas the founder and president of Level One, noting the company’s involvement in Austin Chalk and calling it an “unconventional oil & gas development project.” Calls, texts, and social media messages to that second man with a similar name went unanswered on Monday.
Layoffs Hitting the Gas Fields, Including Marcellus/Utica - According to Reuters, oilfield service companies and drillers have put the brakes on hiring and “further job cuts could loom” as natural gas producers respond to sliding prices by slashing spending on new wells to reduce excess production. We told you yesterday that Chesapeake Energy announced a coming rig and frac crew cut in the Marcellus (see Chesapeake Dropping 1 Rig in Marcellus as it Waits to Merge with SWN). But it’s not some far-off “maybe it will happen” thing. Layoffs in the M-U are already happening. For example, fracking company NexTier merged with Patterson-UTI last September. Because of duplication of services, Patterson recently announced it will close a facility in Mansfield, Pennsylvania, affecting some 104 employees.
13 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Feb 12 – 18 | Marcellus Drilling News -- There were 13 new permits issued to drill in the Marcellus/Utica during the week of Feb. 12 – 18, versus 19 permits issued the prior week. Pennsylvania issued 11 new permits last week. Ohio issued no new permits. West Virginia issued 2 new permits last week. Chesapeake Energy landed the most new permits, with 5 issued in Bradford County, PA. Range Resources had 3 new permits issued in Washington County, PA. Coterra Energy had 2 new permits in Susquehanna County, PA. Southwestern Energy also had 2 new permits issued in Ohio County, WV. And EQT, the largest natural gas producer in the country, had a single new permit issued in Greene County, PA. Bradford County | Chesapeake Energy | Coterra Energy (Cabot O&G) | Energy Companies | EQT Corp | Greene County (PA) | Ohio County | Range Resources Corp | Southwestern Energy | Susquehanna County | Washington County
2.4 GW of Gas-Fired Power Retiring in 2024, Incl. Boston's Mystic | Marcellus Drilling News - The number crunchers at the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) published a post yesterday highlighting that in 2024, some 5.2 gigawatts (GW) of U.S. electric generating capacity will be retired. It is the least amount of capacity being retired since 2008, in the past 25 years. The graphic the crunchers used is somewhat stark and misleading. It shows the number one category of retirements is natural gas power plants, retiring 2.4 GW (46% of all retirements). What you don’t discover until deep into the post is that a single gas-fired plant, Boston’s Mystic Generating Station, which has been online since the 1940s (!), represents 1,413-MW (60%) of the gas plants retiring.
U.S. Utilities, Industrials Seen Offsetting Gas-Fired Electric Generation Retirements - Natural gas-fired generation is forecast for roughly a 100 MW net increase this year as overall electric power plant retirements decrease to 5.2 GW, the lowest level in more than a decade, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). While gas-fired capacity is slated to make up the largest share (46%) of electric generation retirements this year at 2.4 GW, EIA data show planned additions of power plants using the fuel would more than offset losses at more than 2.5 GW. The largest gas capacity addition is to be a 402 MW expansion of Duke Energy Corp.’s Carolinas segment Lincoln Combustion Turbine Station in Denver, NC. NV Energy Inc.’s existing 520 MW Silverhawk Generating Station, a gas-fired peaking facility north of Las Vegas, also is expected to add...
MVP Start Date Slips, but Finish Line in Sight as Equitrans Eyes Strong Southeast Natural Gas Demand --Recent construction setbacks will see Mountain Valley Pipeline LLC’s (MVP) long-delayed completion slip further, now into the second quarter. Still, the finish line is in sight for backer Equitrans Midstream Corp. (ETRN), and the company is also eyeing longer-term growth facilitated by the eventual start-up of the embattled Appalachia-to-Southeast natural gas conduit. Last summer, Congress rescued MVP from regulatory and legal limbo with the passage of the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023. Since then, crews have made “substantial construction progress,” and the “major tasks to complete the pipeline continue to narrow,” Equitrans CEO Diana Charletta said during a conference call to discuss the 4Q2023 results.
Another delay, cost increase for Mountain Valley Pipeline - Once again, builders of the Mountain Valley Pipeline have pushed back the finish line for the highly divisive and long-delayed project. Equitrans Midstream Corp., the lead partner in constructing the natural gas pipeline, said Tuesday that the it is now expected to go into operation sometime in the second quarter of this year. Also announced during a conference call with financial analysts was another cost increase, boosting the project’s total price tag to between $7.57 billion and $7.63 billion. It was the latest in a series of timing setbacks and budget overruns for a pipeline being built by five energy companies. When construction began in early 2018, it was projected to be completed by the end of that year at a cost of $3.7 billion. Work on the buried pipeline that passes through Southwest Virginia has been slowed by lawsuits filed by environmental and community groups, who say problems continue with muddy runoff from construction sites. “This news is as predictable as a mudslide on these steep slopes in the rain,” Russell Chisholm, co-director of the Protect Our Water, Heritage, Rights coalition, said of the latest delay. “MVP’s rush to work recklessly through winter has led to pollution in our streams and landslides near our homes while they bury corroding pipe and backfill their trenches with investor money,” Chisholm said in a statement released by POWHR. In an early January filing with the U.S Securities and Exchange Commission, Equitrans reported that it “has continued to make significant forward construction progress” and remained on target to have the pipeline in service by the end of March. But the company on Tuesday cited unanticipated problems — including heavy rainfall and “challenging construction conditions” — as the reason for adding another three months to its timeline. “While our construction plans took into account the potential effects of winter weather, these conditions were far worse and longer in duration than anticipated, imposing a significant impact on productivity, which, in turn, impeded our ability to reduce construction headcount,” Diana Charletta, Equitrans president and CEO, said during a quarterly conference call held to discuss financial earnings. “Collectively, these factors resulted in our updated timing and total project cost targets,” Charletta said. The 42-inch diameter pipe has been installed along all but about three miles of the pipeline’s 303-mile route from northern West Virginia, through the New River and Roanoke valleys, to connect with an existing pipeline near the North Carolina line. “While the majority of MVP construction is complete, the remaining construction includes some of the most difficult paths on the project, and could present further challenges,” Charletta said. By the end of this month, construction is expected to be completed on all but a few Virginia stretches — such as Poor Mountain in Roanoke and Montgomery counties and the Jefferson National Forest in Giles County — where some of the steepest slopes remain.
Facing more delays, company now expects Mountain Valley Pipeline to be in service by June | WVTF --Developers of the Mountain Valley Pipeline announcedthey’re pushing back their targeted completion by several months to June 1.In a call with investors Tuesday, company CEO Diana Charletta blamed the delay on snow, rain, and challenging construction conditions."While the majority of MVP construction is complete, the remaining construction includes some of the most difficult tasks on the project, and could present further challenges," Charletta said.She added that they have less than four miles left of the pipeline's 303 mile route to complete. These final miles include 13 water crossings, four of which are bores where horizontal drilling puts the pipes at least 10 feet underground."The construction work in these areas will consist of completing the Appalachian Trail crossing and installing pipe on some of the steepest slopes along the route," Charletta said.On the call, one listener asked if recent incidents of muddy water along the pipeline route had caused permitting delays. Charletta said these incidents have been cleared.Citizens have filed several complaints with the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality in recent months, citing muddy water, but DEQ has not stopped construction or issued any violations against the company this year.Charletta estimates most of the construction of the pipeline will be done by the end of March. Before the pipeline can be in service, they estimate it will take several months to do hydrotesting and other safety measures to ensure the pipeline is ready to hold gas. Much of the route, particularly in West Virginia, has already been through that process, Charletta said.Last fall, Equitrans Midstream entered into a consent agreement with the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration to make changes in how they assess whether the pipeline has any threats to its coating that could cause corrosion.The agency had earlier issued a safety order to the company, warning they were concerned of potential safety risks with their process of assessing the pipeline’s coating.Meanwhile, a sale of Equitrans Midstream, or portions of the company, to a third party may also be on the horizon. Charletta said their board “has been engaged in a process with third parties that have expressed interest in strategic transaction,” but would not comment further.The Mountain Valley Pipeline is now costing the company at least $7.57 billion, more than double what it initially estimated.
NatGas Soars After Chesapeake Cuts Production Outlook Amid Vicious Bear Market - With US natural gas prices crashing to lows not seen since early Covid in recent days, around $1.60 per million British thermal units, major shale producer Chesapeake Energy announced in a Tuesday earnings report that it would decrease the number of drilling rigs to reduce production this year. As a result, NatGas futures soared. Futures for next-month delivery jumped more than 12% to $1.77 in early afternoon trading on Wednesday. This followed news from Chesapeake: Chesapeake is currently operating nine rigs (five in the Haynesville and four in the Marcellus) and four frac crews (two in each basin). Given current market dynamics, the company plans to defer placing wells on production while reducing rig and completion activity. The company will drop a rig in the Haynesville and Marcellus in March and around mid-year, respectively, and a frac crew in each basin in March. These activity levels will be maintained through year end. Deferring new well production and completion activity will build short-cycle, capital efficient productive capacity which can be activated when consumer demand requires it. The company expects to drill 95 to 115 wells and place 30 to 40 wells on production in 2024. NatGas prices have collapsed over the past year due to an unseasonably warm winter produced by El Nino, which led to sliding demand for the heating fuel, as well as shale drillers that ramped up production and left stockpiles well above average levels for this time of the year. "The Chesapeake news of lowering production has set the tone that natural gas prices have become too low," said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president for trading at BOK Financial Securities.Kissler explained: "More producers could follow, which is needed to clean up excess supplies." In a recent note, Goldman's Samantha Dart told clients: "Solving oversupply in 2024 sets the stage for a bullish 2025." She expects prices to bottom this year and trend higher into 2025.
US natgas prices soar 13% from 3-1/2-year low as Chesapeake cuts output (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures soared by about 13% on Wednesday after Chesapeake Energy - soon to be the biggest U.S. gas producer after its merger with Southwestern Energy - cut the amount of fuel it plans to produce in 2024 by roughly 30% due to the recent plunge in prices to a 3-1/2-year low. Chesapeake, which said the gas market is "clearly oversupplied," was just the latest U.S. gas producer to slash spending and reduce rigs after prices dropped about 30% so far in 2024 after falling 44% in 2023. Last week, U.S. energy firms Antero Resources and Comstock Resources said they planned to reduce drilling this year, while EQT, currently the nation's biggest gas producer, reduced its 2024 production guidance range. Front-month gas futures rose 19.7 cents, or 12.5%, to settle at $1.773 per million British thermal units. That was the biggest one-day percentage gain since July 2022, when prices jumped by 14.3%. On an inflation-adjusted basis, U.S. gas prices have already collapsed to their lowest in over 30 years. On Tuesday, the non-inflation adjusted front-month contract closed at its lowest since June 2020, which was the height of COVID-19 demand destruction. Providing ammunition for Wednesday's price spike, analysts at energy consulting firm EBW Analytics Group said was "an enormous speculator short position near four-year highs." Chesapeake lowered its prior capital expenditure guidance by about 20% through rig count reductions and deferring well completions, which should cut gas production to around 2.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2024, down from around 3.5 bcfd in 2023. One billion cubic feet is enough gas to supply about five million U.S. homes for a day. U.S. LNG export capacity is expected to almost double over the next four years from about 13.8 bcfd now, representing about 15% of U.S. domestic gas demand, to around 24.4 bcfd in 2028. Analysts said projected LNG demand growth was the primary reason many producers have - until now - kept gas output near record levels despite low prices. Gas prices fell so far this year because a mild winter kept heating demand low, leaving stockpiles at well above normal levels, while output remained near record levels despite an Arctic freeze in January that briefly cut output and caused gas demand to soar to a record high. Even with less gas drilling, analysts said gas output could still increase in 2024 because crude prices were high enough to encourage oil producers to drill in shale basins like the Permian in Texas and New Mexico and the Bakken in North Dakota, where oil wells produce a lot of associated gas.
US natgas futures settle lower as investors book profits after rally (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell 2.3% on Thursday as investors booked profits following a rally in the previous session spurred by Chesapeake Energy's decision to cut its planned output for 2024. Front-month gas futures fell 4.1 cents to settle at $1.732 per million British thermal units. At the session low, prices were down almost 5%. On Wednesday, prices posted their biggest daily percentage gain since July 2022 after Chesapeake Energy - soon to be the biggest U.S. gas producer after its merger with Southwestern Energy - cut the amount it plans to produce in 2024 by roughly 30% in response to a plunge in gas prices to a 3-1/2-year low. "After the rally, the market is bound to pull back as the reality hasn't changed, which is that the market is in an oversupply. "It is hard to argue for any type of market tightness here in the short term. If more producers don't quite grow production or spend CapEx or not make investments and we get some summer demand then prices could move above $2 mark, but market could see lower curves if we get a mild summer and see no more production cuts." The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled a smaller-than-expected 60 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended Feb. 16. That was lower than the 65-bcf withdrawal analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compared with a withdrawal of 75 bcf during the same week a year ago and a five-year (2019-2023) average decrease of 168 bcf for this time of year. Gas prices have fallen more than 30% so far this year because a mild winter kept heating demand low, allowing stockpiles to remain at well above normal levels, while output remained near record levels despite an Arctic freeze in January that briefly cut output and caused gas demand to soar to a record high. Last week, U.S. energy firms Antero Resources and Comstock Resources said they planned to reduce drilling this year, while EQT, currently the nation's biggest gas producer, reduced its 2024 production guidance range. For nearly a year, U.S. natural gas producers have cut production as prices fall, but relentless output gains, including from oil companies that pump gas as an oil byproduct, have unleashed record supplies. U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) company Cheniere Energy posted a 38.5% fall in its full-year LNG revenue on Thursday, hit by the fall in natgas prices. U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said on Wednesday the government's pause on approvals of exports of LNG will not affect relationships with allies that import the fuel. Last month, President Joe Biden paused pending approvals of exports from new LNG projects, a move cheered by climate activists that could delay decisions on new plants. "The U.S. LNG sector is projected to see substantial demand growth, from 13 Bcf/d in 2023 to nearly 25 Bcf/d by 2028, driven by projects already authorized. Key facilities like the Golden Pass and Plaquemines LNG are on track to start commissioning in 2024, promising increased demand," That said, the pause has led to delays in FIDs (Final Investment Decisions) for new projects in both the U.S. and Mexico and raised uncertainties about the U.S.'s role as an LNG exporter in the longer term,"
US natgas spirals lower on weak demand and plentiful supplies - U.S. natural gas futures shed more than 7% on Friday on record output, sufficient fuel in storage and lower heating demand. Front-month gas futures were down 7.5% or 12.9 cents to settle at $1.603 per million British thermal units. "The natgas market is simply in excess supply, and there is a lack of seasonal winter demand," said Thomas Saal, senior vice president for energy at StoneX Financial. "Prices can always fall further than you think, but it should only last a month or so. Once we are into summer and injection season starts, prices might recover." On Wednesday gas prices soared about 13% after Chesapeake Energy cut planned production for 2024 by roughly 30% after a plunge in prices to a 3-1/2 year low. "While gas producers are hurting, to what degree the intended production cut or curtailing would impact gas prices remains to be seen as oil companies are still enjoying a decent level of oil prices and producing associated gas in the meantime," Prices have slid more than 35% so far this year, pressured by a mild winter that has left stockpiles well above normal, while output remained near record levels despite an Arctic freeze in January that briefly cut output and sent gas demand to a record high. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday said utilities pulled a smaller-than-expected 60 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended Feb. 16. The smaller than expected withdrawal "stretched the surplus against the averages out to 450 bcf, with additional expansion of another 100 bcf or more now possible next month," Financial company LSEG said gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to an average of 105.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February from 102.1 bcfd in January, still shy of the monthly record of 106.3 bcfd in December. The European benchmark gas price was also down for the day, hitting its lowest level in almost three years on high storage levels and low demand. Elsewhere nearly a third of Shell's profit in the fourth quarter of 2023 came from the $2.4 billion it made in trading LNG as it captured strong demand ahead of winter, three sources close to the company told Reuters.
U.S. Utilities Expanding Infrastructure, LNG Storage Amid Surge in Energy Demand - U.S. utilities are reporting growth in residential demand, as well as commercial and industrial (C&I) consumption, underpinning investments in more natural gas-fired generation and system reliability. Atmos Energy Inc. CEO John Akers during a call to discuss the fiscal first quarter earnings highlighted capital expenditures (capex) for modernizing its natural gas distribution system to serve “growing demand from all of our customer classes.” The Dallas-based natural gas utility serves more than three million customers in eight states, mostly in the South and Rockies. During the final three months of 2023, Atmos directed more than 80% of $770 million in capex to transmission and distribution pipeline, storage and compression and safety upgrades.
Cheniere Says LNG Expansions On Track Despite Suspended U.S. Export Authorizations - Cheniere Energy Inc. CEO Jack Fusco said Thursday the Biden administration’s decision to pause new LNG export authorizations has not slowed down the company’s expansion projects, which management expects to stay on track despite an ambiguous regulatory environment. “It does introduce regulatory and permitting uncertainty to the U.S. liquefied natural gas industry as a whole,” Fusco said of the pause during a call to discuss year-end results. Fusco stressed that a “fair and transparent regulatory framework is essential for the future development of natural gas infrastructure in the United States, particularly for liquefaction capacity, given the scale of investment, commercial support and time required to bring these projects online.”
Venture Global seeks more time to complete Calcasieu Pass LNG terminal - US LNG exporter Venture Global LNG has requested more time from the US FERC to complete the commissioning of its Calcasieu Pass LNG export terminal in Louisiana. Calcasieu Pass produced its first LNG on January 19, 2022, and the first commissioning cargo left the facility on March 1. However, Venture Global has not yet declared the start of commercial operations at the 10 mtpa facility which consists of 18 modular units configured in 9 blocks. “Calcasieu Pass has now completed nearly all of the construction of the project, but the commissioning phase continues with respect to certain essential facilities,” Venture Global told the US FERC in a filling dated February 15. According to Venture Global, the 2019 FERC authorization says that the Calcasieu Pass proposed liquefaction facilities shall be constructed and made available for service within five years of the order date, or by February 21, 2024. “Calcasieu Pass believes that it has complied with that condition, as written and read literally, because all of the project’s “proposed liquefaction facilities” (i.e., the 18 liquefaction trains configured in 9 blocks) have been placed in-service, following the Commission Staff’s October 2023 authorization for Calcasieu Pass to place its liquefaction blocks 7-9 in-service,” it said. “While the in-service condition in the order does not utilize a more encompassing term or phrase, such as: “all of Calcasieu Pass’ facilities”, or “the export terminal,” or Calcasieu Pass’ “proposed project,” some interested stakeholders may nevertheless interpret the condition more broadly than its plain language suggests,” Venture Global said. According to Venture Global, if the condition were to be so interpreted, Calcasieu Pass “would not be able to comply with the condition as a result of the continuing need for further commissioning, repair, rectification, and completion of certain facilities.” Venture Global said that Calcasieu Pass has encountered “circumstances that have prevented it from being able to bring all its facilities into service at this time.” That conclusion is reflected in the previously mentioned liquefaction in-service NTP, which recognized that reliability issues with certain other facilities, notably the heat recovery steam generators or “HRSGs”, require those facilities to remain in the commissioning process and the subject of a future in-service authorization, it said. Venture Global said the project’s power generation facilities would remain in commissioning and “cannot be placed in-service until that on-going remediation work is completed, which Calcasieu Pass currently expects to happen during the fourth quarter of 2024.” “Accordingly, to ensure compliance with the authorization order and full transparency, Calcasieu Pass hereby requests a one-year extension of the in-service condition set forth in ordering paragraph (B) to the extent that the Commission deems it necessary because certain of Calcasieu Pass’ authorized facilities — other than its liquefaction trains — will not be in-service by February 21, 2024,” Venture Global said. “Alternatively, if the Commission interprets the in-service condition as applicable only to those liquefaction facilities, Calcasieu Pass requests that the Commission instead confirm that Calcasieu Pass has complied with the in-service condition,” it said. Long-term customers of the Calcasieu pass facility include Shell, BP, Edison, Repsol, Galp, and PGNiG. Energy giants Shell and BP and other firms are in an dispute with Venture Global over the launch of commercial operations at the facility and previously launched arbitration proceedings against Venture Global. Shell’s CEO Wael Sawan recently said that Venture Global has sold around 250 commissioning cargoes up to date. “And what we see is that the plant is at or near capacity and has been consistently. So, we’re very much focused on continuing to enforce our legal rights and protect the sanctity of contracts that are there. I won’t get into the details of the legal proceedings,” he said.
Patterson-UTI Steadies Capacity Additions while Expanding Natural Gas-Powered Fleets, Rig Tech - Contract driller Patterson-UTI Energy Inc. has no plans to add drilling or completion capacity in the Lower 48, as activity is forecast to remain flat through the year, but opportunities exist to enhance and expand the natural gas-powered fleets, CEO Andy Hendricks said. Speaking to analysts during the recent quarterly conference call, Hendricks said the Houston-based oilfield services company would remain committed to optimizing performance to navigate an evolving energy sector landscape. “While we do not see a benefit to adding drilling or completion capacity into the U.S. shale market, we do have several levers that we will focus on this year that should help us improve our returns as the year progresses,” Hendricks said. Among them are “alternative power solutions”...
US weekly LNG exports climb to 26 shipments - US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports rose in the week ending February 14 compared to the week before, according to the Energy Information Administration.The agency said in its weekly natural gas report that 26 LNG carriers departed the US plants between February 8 and February 14, two vessels more compared to the week before.Moreover, the total capacity of these LNG vessels is 90 Bcf, the EIA said, citing shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance.Average natural gas deliveries to US LNG export terminals increased by 3.8 percent (0.5 Bcf/d) week over week, averaging 13.8 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights.Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana decreased by 1.3 percent (0.1 Bcf/d) to 9.1 Bcf/d, while natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Texas increased by 19.9 percent (0.6 Bcf/d) to 3.5 Bcf/d.The agency said that most of the increase in South Texas occurred at Cheniere’s Corpus Christi LNG terminal, where natural gas receipts increased by 28 percent (0.5 Bcf/d) week over week after declining by a similar amount the previous report week.Natural gas deliveries to terminals outside the Gulf Coast were essentially unchanged at 1.2 Bcf/d.Cheniere’s Sabine Pass plant shipped eight cargoes and the company’s Corpus Christi facility sent three shipments during the week under review.Sempra Infrastructure’s Cameron LNG terminal shipped five cargoes while Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass LNG terminal, the Freeport LNG terminal, and the Elba Island terminal each shipped three cargoes during the period. Also, the Cove Point LNG terminal shipped one cargo, the agency said. This report week, the Henry Hub spot price fell 46 cents from $1.97 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $1.51/MMBtu this Wednesday. The price of the March 2024 NYMEX contract decreased 35.8 cents, from $1.967/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.609/MMBtu this Wednesday. According to the agency, the price of the 12-month strip averaging March 2024 through February 2025 futures contracts declined 22.4 cents to $2.417/MMBtu.
Chevron's LNG carriers to get reliquefaction units - South Korea’s HD Hyundai Marine Solution has secured a contract from US energy giant Chevron to install reliquefaction units and other tech on the latter’s two liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers. The unit of HD Hyundai, previously known as Hyundai Global Service, revealed the contract award in a statement issued on Thursday. In addition to reliquefaction units, HD Hyundai Marine will also install air lubrication technology and new gas compressors. HD Hyundai Marine said that the 2014-built 160,000-cbm, Asia Energy, is one of the two LNG carriers which will receive the upgrade. The firm did not provide the price tag of the deal. Last year, the company also won an order from LNG carrier operator CoolCo to retrofit five TFDE LNG carriers with sub-coolers for LNG boil-off reliquefaction in order to slash emissions and improve fuel consumption. This deal is worth $50 million or some $10 million per vessel. A reliquefaction unit reliquefies BOG generated during the operation of LNG cargo tanks, either returning the gas to the cargo tank or preventing natural evaporation using sub-cooled LNG. So far, HD Hyundai Marine won $100 million in orders to install reliquefaction units on eight LNG carriers, including the CoolCo order, it said. HD Hyundai Marine said there are about 100 LNG carriers without reliquefaction systems, and the total cost to install the technology on them is estimated at $700 million. As per Chevron, the company’s shipping unit contracted last year a subsidiary of Singapore’s Sembcorp Marine to install reliquefaction systems and other tech on Chevron’s LNG carriers as part of a move to further slash emissions. According to Chevron’s website, its shipping unit operates ten LNG carriers, including Asia Energy..
Texas LNG Inks Long-Term Deal with Gulf LNG Tugs Texas LNG Brownsville LLC has selected Gulf LNG Tugs of Texas, LLC to build, deliver, and operate tugboats under a long-term agreement to assist vessels arriving at its liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility in Brownsville, Texas. The tugboats will be “among the most modern, low-emissions tugboats available to serve a facility of Texas LNG’s size”, the company said in a recent news release. The financial details and the exact contract length were not disclosed. Brendan Duval, CEO and founder of Texas LNG parent company Glenfarne Energy Transition LLC, said, “The Texas LNG team undertook a comprehensive process to identify a marine service provider that not only matches our commitment to environmental stewardship, but also provides our customers with reliable, cost-effective marine services. We are pleased to have Gulf LNG Tugs on board as a partner and look forward to the jobs and local content they will bring to both Texas LNG and the local Rio Grande Valley community”. “Gulf LNG Tugs is excited to be providing marine services in a long-term partnership with Texas LNG”, Gulf LNG Tugs partners said in a joint statement. “We are proud to be the exclusive tug operator for LNG vessels to yet another successful LNG project in the Port of Brownsville and look forward to expanding our operations in the port and our presence in the Rio Grande Valley community”. Texas LNG is an LNG export terminal targeted to have a capacity of four million metric tons per annum. The terminal will be built in Brownsville, which is “ideally situated for consistent and reliable maritime operations, with low probability of storm impact, consistent operating temperatures, and a location in a protected port”, the company said. Glenfarne is the majority owner and managing member of Texas LNG and expects a final investment decision on the project later in the year, according to the release. Commercial operations are projected to begin in late 2027 or 2028. Gulf LNG Tugs of Texas is a joint venture formed to provide tug services for Texas LNG under a long-term tug services agreement. It is owned by Houston-based Bay-Houston Management, LLC, Connecticut-based Moran Towing Corporation, and Houston-based Suderman & Young Towing Company. It is the fourth joint venture formed by the ownership team to provide tug services to a Gulf Coast LNG project, according to the release. Texas LNG in January entered into a heads of agreement (HOA) with EQT Corporation for natural gas liquefaction services from its facility. The HOA is expected to be finalized into a definitive 15-year tolling agreement for 0.5 million tons per annum (mtpa) of LNG from the first train of Texas LNG, according to an earlier statement. In December 2023, Texas LNG selected ABB to collaborate on core automation and electrical equipment for the Brownsville LNG export terminal. As part of the memorandum of understanding signed by the two companies, Texas LNG and ABB have agreed on a framework for ABB to invest in the project. Further, Texas LNG in November 2023 selected Baker Hughes to supply gas compression technology equipment, including electric motor drives, to the facility. As part of the partnership between the two companies, Baker Hughes also has a framework agreement to make a strategic pre-final investment decision (FID) investment in the project’s late-stage development, Texas LNG said.
Flows Return to Freeport LNG After Train 1 Compressor Issue – Feed gas nominations to Freeport LNG started to tick up again Wednesday after being curtailed over the holiday weekend, according to Wood Mackenzie pipeline data. The Texas facility reported an outage at Train 1 on Feb. 16 caused by a compressor issue, according to a filing with state environmental regulators. Train 3 has been under repair since mid-January after Freeport reported issues because of winter storm impacts on the Texas coast. Available liquefied natural gas import capacity in southern Europe is expected to be reduced for much of the year as the floating storage and regasification unit Toscana undergoes extensive repairs until October. Operator OLT Offshore LNG said the 2.8 million metric ton/year unit offshore...
Shale Gas Market Set to Soar to USD 124.9 Billion by 2030, Driven by Surging Global Energy Demand - -- The SNS Insider report reveals that the Shale Gas Market, valued at USD 66 Billion in 2022, is set to witness an impressive leap, reaching USD 124.9 Billion by 2030. This robust growth trajectory, boasting a CAGR of 8.3% from 2023 to 2030, underscores the increasing prominence of shale gas in the global energy landscape." In the dynamic landscape of energy markets, shale gas emerges as a transformative force, shaping the trajectory of global energy security. With its abundant reserves locked within dense rock formations, the shale gas market presents a tapestry of opportunities and challenges. Its extraction involves a delicate dance between technological innovation and environmental stewardship, as stakeholders navigate the complexities of hydraulic fracturing. Yet, amidst debates on sustainability and geopolitical implications, shale gas ignites a beacon of promise, offering newfound energy independence to nations and driving economic growth. As the market evolves, it serves as a catalyst for diverse industries, from manufacturing to transportation, fostering innovation and redefining the contours of the energy landscape. In this intricate tapestry of supply and demand, the shale gas market stands as a testament to human ingenuity, resilience, and the ever-evolving quest for energy solutions.
DTM Looking Beyond ‘Current Realities’ in Natural Gas Market to Expand Haynesville LEAP Pipe - DT Midstream Inc. (DTM) has boosted the top end capacity estimate for its Louisiana Energy Access Project, or LEAP, to 4 Bcf/d, roughly double the amount of natural gas it could be transporting by 2026. Based on the work to expand LEAP, “it’s become clear to us that we actually can expand this beyond 3 Bcf/d up to the 4 Bcf/d neighborhood,” CEO David Slater said during the fourth quarter earnings call. The Detroit-based company completed a second expansion in January. A third phase would raise the capacity to 1.9 Bcf/d by the second half of the year. The 150-mile, 36-inch diameter pipeline carries Haynesville Shale natural gas in Louisiana to the Gulf Coast for LNG exports and industrial use. LEAP is one of eight pipeline projects underway through the end of the decade...
Port Arthur LNG Permit Question Facing Texas Supreme Court Scrutiny - A panel of federal judges has decided to withdraw its decision around a Texas air permit for Sempra Infrastructure’s Port Arthur LNG export project southeast of Houston. In November, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit vacated an air permit granted by the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ). In that decision, the circuit court sided with a local environmental group’s argument that the agency did not mandate the same pollution controls as other Texas projects, including Rio Grande LNG in South Texas. However, in the court’s latest order filed earlier this month, the justices wrote that the question boils down to the interpretation of the state’s environmental statutes, which should be answered by the Texas Supreme Court (No. 22-60556).
Bernhard Capital to buy natural gas assets from CenterPoint for US$1.2 billion - Services and infrastructure-focused private equity manager Bernhard Capital Partners is acquiring US$1.2 billion (€1.1 billion) Louisiana and Mississippi natural gas assets from US utility CenterPoint Energy. Bernhard Capital’s portfolio company Delta Utilities has agreed to buy CenterPoint Energy’s Louisiana and Mississippi natural gas local distribution businesses which include around 12 000 miles of main pipeline in Louisiana and Mississippi serving approximately 380 000 metered customers. Jeff Jenkins, founder and partner at Bernhard Capital Partners, said the acquisition builds upon the firm’s recent announcement to acquire Entergy’s New Orleans and Baton Rouge natural gas distribution businesses, adding that “once both transactions are complete, Delta Utilities will be a leading natural gas utility in Louisiana and Mississippi and among the top 40 providers in the US”. Jason Wells, President and CEO of NYSE-listed CenterPoint Energy, said the transaction will allow the firm to optimise its portfolio of utility operations and efficiently recycle approximately US$1 billion in after-tax cash proceeds “into our service territory where we have both electric and natural gas operations or where we have a larger presence at a valuation that is more efficient than issuing common equity”.“From an operational and strategic perspective, we remain confident in and committed to our regulated natural gas utilities in Texas, Indiana, Minnesota and Ohio, where we have significant footprints and rate bases.” CenterPoint’s Louisiana and Mississippi LDCs represent less than 4% of the company’s overall rate base.
Coast Guard, partner agencies respond to oil spill in Charleston > US Coast Guard Press Release — Coast Guard Sector Charleston and partner agencies concluded pollution response efforts for an oil product found in a water drain in Charleston, Feb 12. Pollution response efforts have concluded with no evidence of additional oil for future potential discharge, recoverable product, or threat to the marine environment. On Feb 8, Sector Charleston’s Incident Management Division, in coordination with the Charleston County Emergency Management Department and Charleston City Water Management Department, received a report of oil in a storm drain near a Chevron facility in Charleston, South Carolina. Boom was deployed and 5,000 gallons of oily water mixture were removed by vacuuming the drainpipe. “This response serves as an example of the collaborative efforts between the local industry, Coast Guard, and partner agencies to address illegal discharges, thereby reducing the impact on the crucial Lowcountry waterways,” said Lt. Michael Allen, Sector Charleston Incident Management Division Chief. “It is essential to recognize that illegally dumping toxic products harms our environment and violates regulations designed to protect our natural resources and public health.”
New River oil spill near Las Olas investigated -- Multiple agencies are investigating the source of an oil spill that appeared early Monday in the New River near downtown Fort Lauderdale, law enforcement officials said. A marine unit attached to the Fort Lauderdale Police Department discovered the spill off the 500 block of Las Olas Boulevard shortly before 11 a.m., Detective Ali Adamson, a public information officer, said in an email. “Officers were able to follow the fuel along the New River. However, due to the outgoing tide, they were unable to determine the source of the spill,” she said. “The Marine Unit officers called the spill into the United States Coast Guard. Additionally, the Department of Environmental Protection is responding to further assess the waterway.” Eric Rodriguez, a public affairs officer based in Miami Beach, told the South Florida Sun Sentinel on Monday that the source had not been determined and that the state environmental agency has taken the lead in the investigation. Witnesses reported that the oil was “dissipating on its own,” Rodriguez said. U.S. Coast Guard Petty Officer Diana Sherbs said as of Tuesday afternoon that the Coast Guard was still investigating and did not have any further update. Jon Moore, a spokesperson for the Florida Department of Environmental Protection, said in an email Tuesday evening that the source has not yet been identified but that the department is working with the Coast Guard, the Broward Sheriff’s Office and Fort Lauderdale Police’s Marine Patrol “to survey local waterways, marinas and nearby vessels to identify a potential source.” The New River is among the city’s most highly trafficked waterways, with a steady stream of private yachts, tour boats, taxis and commercial vessels passing through downtown each day to reach homes, restaurants, marinas and maintenance yards.
Beneficiaries of proposed surety rule point to strange bedfellows -- Oil well decommissioning is a hot button issue in the world of energy production. The idea is quite simple: when an oil well is erected, the company who controls that operation must have the resources to take down the facility at the end of its life. This federal law requiring “financial assurance” is to be maintained throughout the life of the project to prevent the taxpayer from bearing that cost.For decades, oil wells in the Outer Continental Shelf (“OCS”) have changed hands from large oil companies, who typically use the facility while it is in highly productive use, to smaller oil companies, who will continue to use the facility until the end of its productive use. These changing of hands may, and often, occur a few times over that lifespan. Federal regulations have followed this pattern. They have imposed joint and several liability, meaning that any company who has ever owned or controlled the lease can be held liable for the decommissioning costs. Because anyone who has owned a lease can be liable, the government has only required that any one of these facilities have the financial capability to cover decommissioning. The beauty of this simple rule is that the free market has done its job. When one company sells the rights to an oil rig to another, often, the selling company will do its due diligence and ensure that the buying company has the financial resources to pay for decommissioning. This means that the buying company, upon purchase, will already have bonds purchased when they purchase the facility. Or the larger company will risk the financial obligation and require the buyer to pay more. Either way, the government should not need to separately require these assurances from the new company. This system has worked. The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) has acknowledged that instances in which the taxpayer would have to pay for decommissioning are rare. Historically, only $58 million have fallen to the taxpayer, (to demonstrate scale, a rough estimate by industry insiders of decommissioning costs borne by private parties in that time is $25 billion), and all of these taxpayer losses stemmed from operators with no predecessor, meaning there was no other private party to share responsibility for decommissioning liabilities. Yet, last year, the federal government put forth a proposed rule that upends the already functional system by assuming that all $42.8 billion in potential future decommissioning liability is at risk of being borne by the taxpayers. For important context, only 2 percent of this large$42.8 billion estimate ($391 million) can be traced to sole owner platforms (i.e., no predecessors) where BOEM does not possess bonds in hand. If the rule is finalized, the law would have the effect of requiring new surety obligations to be incurred by entities, almost wholly consisting of small businesses and representing 98 percent of all potential future liability, that have demonstrated virtually no risk to the taxpayers. The industry responsible for creating the new insurance product has also expressed skepticism that a viable market could exist. So why is BOEM moving forward with the proposal? Typically, the answer lies in who is set to benefit from such a dramatic change in government regulations. In this instance, two distinct and rather strange bedfellows stand out. First, consider the environmental NGO industry, which has populated the leadership ranks of the Biden administration. With over 76 percent of the offshore oil and gas operators being small businesses, who are tasked with bearing over $9 billion in new supplemental bonding, the projected impact on energy production and development is dire. But while the public, consumers, and American energy security would suffer, this appears to be exactly what the climate change lobby wants. Second, consider Big Oil. Not only would this rule reduce their decommissioning liabilities, it would also decimate their competitors in the offshore oil and gas industry. This may be bad for energy consumers, but could be a great development for Big Oil. Public records reported on by the Daily Caller show senior Biden administration officials being courted by Big Oil representatives early on in their tenure lobbying for precisely this change in the regulations. While it may seem short-sighted to think you can leverage government power to torpedo your own industry competitors without feeling the consequences too, this may be exactly what is envisioned by Big Oil. For decades, the system of financial assurances has worked remarkably well in protecting taxpayers and responsibly decommissioning offshore rigs. Yet BOEM now proposes a $9 billion solution to fix a $391 million problem that also reduces energy security for the American people. As usual in Washington, the reason is not hard to understand. But this time the marriage of Big Oil and the environmental lobby could be tough to overcome.
Biden’s climate law fines oil companies for methane pollution. The bill is coming due. -- The Inflation Reduction Act, the 2021 U.S. climate law abbreviated IRA, primarily reduces emissions through financial incentives, rather than binding rules. But in addition to all its well-known carrots, lawmakers quietly included a smaller number of sticks — particularly when it comes to the potent greenhouse gas methane, which has proven to be a pesky source of increasing climate pollution with each passing year. New research suggests that those sticks could soon batter the oil and gas industry, which is responsible for a third of all methane emissions in the U.S.An IRA provision directs the Environmental Protection Agency, or EPA, to charge $900 for every metric ton of methane above a certain threshold released into the atmosphere in 2024. The issue is particularly challenging to tackle in oil and gas fields because methane is the primary component in natural gas, and it leaks from hundreds of thousands of devices scattered across the country. In 2022, oil and gas facilities emitted more than 2.5 million metric tons of methane. The methane fee is one of a handful of ways in which the Biden administration is trying to get the industry to clean up its act. Late last year, the EPA finalized a rule requiring drillers to take comprehensive measures to monitor for and fix methane leaks. Separately, the agency is revising a rule that governs how companies count up and report the volume of methane emissions from their operations. That rule in particular will determine the EPA’s ability to assess the success of its methane reduction rule and help it calculate defensible fees to penalize companies for their emissions. A new analysis by Geofinancial Analytics, a private data provider, found that some companies may be liable for tens of millions of dollars in fees — a possibility that could bankrupt some operators. The analysis, which relied on satellite data, found that the top 25 oil and gas producers in the country would together have been liable for as much as $1.1 billion if the methane fee was applied to emissions for a one-year period ending in March 2023.On the one hand, major players like Chevron and Shell, which have publicly welcomed the new methane fee rule, are well below the rule’s threshold for penalizing emissions, according to Geofinancial. (This is likely due to large companies’ relative technological sophistication and economies of scale.) The fee only goes into effect when companies emit methane at volumes equivalent to more than 25,000 tons of carbon dioxide, which means that smaller companies, too, are largely exempt from the rule. Still, a 2022 congressional analysis found that, despite the exemptions, the rule should effectively penalize about a third of all methane emissions from U.S. oil and gas infrastructure.As a result, industry trade groups like the American Petroleum Institute, which represents a large swath of the oil and gas industry, have pilloried the rule and backed a proposal to repeal the fee. Some of the largest potential liabilities stemming from the rule, according to Geofinancial’s analysis, belong to Diversified Energy Company, a seasoned operator with about two decades in the oil and gas industry but an unusual business model. While the Exxons and Chevrons of the world typically rely on drilling new wells and increasing fossil fuel production to generate revenue, Diversified’s growth is heavily dependent on buying old wells at the end of their lives and wringing every last bit of oil or gas out of them. These low-producing wells come with serious environmental liabilities: The older the well, the more expensive it is to complete the required steps to seal it and prevent additional pollution — and the more likely it is to leak copious amounts of methane. Diversified, which has become the largest owner of oil and gas wells in the U.S., has some 70,000 such old and potentially leaky wells — making it potentially one of the biggest methane emitters in the industry as well. According to Geofinancial, Diversified would be liable for as much as $184 million if its annual excess methane emissions are equivalent to what it released over the year ending in September 2023. While the satellite results are a snapshot in time and contain some uncertainty, Geofinancial’s overall finding is that Diversified is probably facing catastrophically steep methane fees — an outcome that Diversified disputes, arguing that it has lowered its methane intensity such that it will be exempt from the new fees.
Rystad Forecasts Net Production of Top Permian Producers in 2024 -The combined company of ExxonMobil and Pioneer Natural Resources will have the highest amount of total net production in the Permian this year, Rystad Energy projected in a market update sent to Rigzone recently. According to a chart included in that update, the combined ExxonMobil-Pioneer Natural Resources business has a 2024 forecasted net production just shy of 1.4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in the region, with almost 53 percent of that output coming in the form of oil. Chevron has a forecasted net production just above the combined Diamondback Energy-Endeavor Energy company, which is anticipated to produce 819,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day in the Permian, the chart outlined. The Occidental-CrownRock combined business comes in just behind the Diamondback-Endeavor company, according to the chart, which shows ConocoPhillips in fifth place, with under 800,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Chevron’s output is around 47 percent oil, Diamondback-Endeavor and ConocoPhillip’s production is 57 percent oil, and Occidental-CrownRock’s output is just below 50 percent oil, the chart projected. In its latest drilling productivity report, which was released earlier this month, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected that oil production in the Permian will hit 6.071 million barrels per day in February and 6.085 million barrels per day in March. The EIA anticipated in the report that gas production in the region will come in at 24.628 billion cubic feet this month and 24.762 billion cubic feet per day in March. ExxonMobil announced a definitive agreement for it to acquire Pioneer Natural Resources in a statement posted on its site back in October 2023. The merger is an all-stock transaction valued at $59.5 billion, or $253 per share, based on ExxonMobil’s closing price on October 5, 2023, the company noted at the time, adding that, under the terms of the agreement, Pioneer shareholders will receive 2.3234 shares of ExxonMobil for each Pioneer share at closing. The implied total enterprise value of the transaction, including net debt, is approximately $64.5 billion, ExxonMobil said in the statement. In December 2023 Occidental announced that it had entered into a purchase agreement to acquire Midland-based oil and gas producer CrownRock L.P. for cash and stock in a transaction valued at approximately $12.0 billion, including the assumption of CrownRock’s debt. Earlier this month, Diamondback and Endeavor announced in a joint statement that they had entered into a definitive merger agreement under which Diamondback and Endeavor will merge in a transaction valued at approximately $26 billion, inclusive of Endeavor’s net debt. Andrew Dittmar, the Senior Vice President (SVP) of Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), said in an earlier statement sent to Rigzone that the Diamondback Energy-Endeavor Energy combination creates a Permian pure play with an enterprise value of about $60 billion and 816,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day of pro-forma production. “When ExxonMobil announced its $64.5 billion acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources in October, Rystad Energy underscored that the deal had ushered in a new era of unprecedented dealmaking for the shale sector, which we dubbed ‘Shale 4.0’,” Rystad Senior Analyst Matthew Bernstein said in the market update sent to Rigzone. “The months that have followed since have not disappointed in this regard, with the number and size of the ‘megadeals’ announced in the Permian since early October rapidly accelerating the timeline of consolidation for the most prolific U.S. onshore basin,” he added. “That merger spree has been propelled into overdrive with the announcement that Diamondback Energy and Endeavor Energy Resources, two regional heavyweights, would be merging in a deal that values Endeavor at $26 billion,” he continued. “The move will create the largest pure-Permian independent by production while also holding the second most undeveloped drilling locations, after ExxonMobil-Pioneer, according to Rystad Energy estimates,” Bernstein went on to state.
Matador Skirting Permian Natural Gas Constraints and Raising Output - Dallas-based independent Matador Resources Co., which works in the Permian Basin, Haynesville and Eagle Ford shales, reported record natural gas production for 2023, and it is not planning to reduce output this year, even with low prices. The independent “exceeded production expectations” for gas and oil. Output increased 38% year/year during 4Q2023, driven by the Permian’s Delaware sub-basin. Average total production was 154,261 boe/d during the quarter, up from 111,735 boe/d in 4Q2022. Average natural gas output surged to nearly 394 MMcf/d during the final quarter from 297 MMcf/d in the year-ago period. The gains came “despite…natural gas prices decreasing 58% from $6.36/Mcf in 2022 to $2.64 in 2023,” CEO Joseph Foran said.
Charting the Course of U.S. Oil Production - Despite facing significant challenges in recent years, the US remains the largest oil producer in the world and set a new annual production record in 2023. The narrative surrounding US oil production has gained significant relevance in the oil markets, especially at a time when supply and demand dynamics appear to be teetering on the edge.In a geopolitically charged world, the increase in US production (with the IEA estimating a 1.5 mbpd increase in non-OPEC production in 2024) is instrumental in keeping oil prices in check. However, the slowdown in the global economy might impact this growth as US producers begin to reduce their activity.Sustained high prices during the previous year, driven by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the reopening of the Chinese economy (which proved to be less catalytic over time), led to price spikes. Furthermore, when OPEC+ announced further cuts in April 2023 totaling 1.65 mbpd, building on the previous cut of 2 mbpd declared in October 2022, oil producers worldwide, including those in the US, were encouraged to increase production. Most importantly, technological advancements in the US, such as hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling, allowed producers to tap into previously untapped reserves.Apart from technological gains and increased prices, other factors contributed to US production growth, such as not being part of OPEC and therefore not being bound by any production curtailment agreements.However, given the precarious position of the global economy, the prospects for further increases in US oil production might be challenging. Production has already started to stagnate, with growth slowing to 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) between September and November and experiencing a slight plunge in October 2023. John Kemp has raised a pertinent question: given that there hasn't been an increase in rigs and Frac Spread Count, are these efficiency gains sustainable?Looking at the Frac Spread Count, it's evident that equipment is limited, with around 75% of available equipment currently in use. Even with the best efficiencies deployed on the well pad, it appears to be a flat year for US production growth. Pumpers need to add more equipment over the next 2-3 years, with hopes for electric-powered equipment!Similar observations can be found in the IEA's latest short-term outlook, which doesn’t anticipate production rising again until at least 2025, with a slight dip projected for 2024."In a landscape where oil prices are favorable, operators are strategically focusing on completions to ensure maximum returns," added Matt Johnson, CEO of PrimaryVision. This strategic shift is observable through Primary Vision Network’s Frac Spread Count, which stood at 250 in January 2023 and remains the same in 2024. The story of US oil supply is pivotal to the global energy order in general and oil markets in particular. If global economic conditions fail to improve and a recession sets in, we might witness oil production stagnating or declining, altering the overall supply-demand dynamics with repercussions for countries worldwide. The Frac Spread Count serves as a useful indicator to track this narrative, along with the global Purchasing Manager’s Index, global trade volumes, and the interest rates of major banks.
Lawsuit settled over 2018 train derailment, oil spill in northwest Iowa— A lawsuit has been settled between northwest Iowa landowners and BNSF Railway over a 2018 train derailment and oil spill.Plaintiffs Phillip Kooima, Krisi Kooima, John Kooima, Helen Kooima, and the four trusts in which they are each the trustees filed the lawsuit against the railway, asking for actual damages and punitive damages.According to court documents, a settlement had been agreed upon on Jan. 17 with the case being dismissed with prejudice on Feb. 13. Details of the settlement have not been provided.The lawsuit was initially filed in Lyon County as a district court case but was later moved to federal court.On the morning of June 22, 2018, a train owned by BNSF carrying more than 30 cars of crude oil derailedjust south of the community of Doon, Iowa. Some of the cars were compromised and leaked oil into floodwaters in Lyon County. The derailment and oil spill also forced the evacuations of several farms in the area.According to the lawsuit, the derailment caused 160,000 gallons of tar sand oil to spill into the waters, flooding the train tracks. The National Transportation Safety Board found that speed was not a factor in the derailment. Instead, over 48 hours of heavy rain washed out the tracks.Multiple agencies responded to the derailment and assisted in cleaning up the spill.The plaintiffs own approximately 464 acres of farmland in Lyon County that was damaged by the oil spill.In December 2021, BNSF Railway agreed to pay a $1.5 million settlement to the Environmental Protection Agency.
Enbridge Wants Line 5 Shutdown Order Overturned on Tribal Land in Northern Wisconsin - Eleven years after easements for a pipeline buried beneath the Bad River reservation in northern Wisconsin expired, five years after the tribe first sounded alarms over the risk of an imminent oil spill into their namesake river and eight months after a federal judge ordered a shutdown, Canadian pipeline giant Enbridge was back in federal court last week arguing that the flow of oil through its 71-year-old Line 5 pipeline be allowed to continue.“May it please the Court, the district court shutdown order in this case will cause a massive disruption in energy supplies and economies in the Midwest and Canada,” said Alice Loughran, an attorney representing Enbridge before the 7th Circuit Court of Appeals in Chicago on Feb. 8.Citing a legal argument rarely used in pipeline disputes, Enbridge argued that a 1977 treaty between the United States and Canada prohibited any disruption in the flow of oil between the two countries. Some legal scholars say century-old treaties between the Bad River Band of the Lake Superior Tribe of Chippewa Indians and the U.S. government should supersede the 1977 pipeline treaty and that Enbridge lacks the legal standing to bring a nation-to-nation treaty before the court. “I think basically it’s a ‘Hail Mary’ from Enbridge,” said Matthew Fletcher, a federal Indian law professor at the University of Michigan and a visiting professor at Harvard University.The federal district court found Enbridge has been trespassing on the Bad River Reservation since 2013 when the company’s right-of-way easements for the pipeline expired. In January 2017, the Bad River Tribal Council voted not to renew its interest in the right of way and called for the removal of Line 5 because it threatens the tribe’s water resources, food sources and traditional ways of life. However, if the appeals court judges accept Enbridge’s argument—which the Canadian Government is also arguing—the implications could be wide ranging. “It would really limit the ability of state governments and tribal nations and others to protect the interests that have been widely accepted for many years,” said Debbie Chizewer, an attorney for Earthjustice, an environmental advocacy and litigation organization not involved in the ongoing lawsuit. “If you can’t protect your land from a trespass because of the oil pipelines, what’s the point of having your own land?” Meanwhile, the tribe’s years-long battle against Enbridge is gaining increasing attention.Bad River, a film about the tribe and its David-versus-Goliath fight against the pipeline company, will be released in theaters across the U.S. on Mar. 15. The film seeks to put the current pipeline fight in an historical context.“Enbridge’s trespass is one of many in a series of takings of Native land that goes back hundreds of years,” Mary Mazzio, the film’s producer, writer and director, said.
The Rising Cost of the Oil Industry’s Slow Death — In the 165 years since the first American oil well struck black gold, the industry has punched millions of holes in the earth, seeking profits gushing from the ground. Now, those wells are running dry, and a generational bill is coming due.Until wells are properly plugged, many leak oil and brine onto farmland and into waterways and emit toxic and explosive gasses, rendering redevelopment impossible. A noxious lake inundates West Texas ranchland, oil bubbles into a downtown Los Angeles apartment building and gas seeps into the yards ofsuburban Ohio homes.But the impact is felt everywhere, as many belch methane, the second-largest contributor to climate change, into the atmosphere.There are more than 2 million unplugged oil and gas wells that will need to be cleaned up, and the current production boom and windfall profits for industry giants have obscured the bill’s imminent arrival. More than 90% of the country’s unplugged wells either produce little oil and gas or are already dormant.By law, companies are responsible for plugging and cleaning up wells. Oil drillers set aside funds called bonds, similar to the security deposit on a rental property, that are refunded once they decommission their wells or, if they walk away without doing that work, are taken by the government to cover the cost.But an analysis by ProPublica and Capital & Main has found that the money set aside for this cleanup work in the 15 states accounting for nearly all the nation’s oil and gas production covers less than 2% of the projected cost. That shortfall puts taxpayers at risk of picking up the rest of the massive tab to avoid the environmental, economic and public health consequences of aging oil fields. The estimated cost to plug and remediate those wells if cleanup is left to the government is $151.3 billion, according to the states’ own data. But the actual price tag will almost certainly be higher — perhaps tens of billions of dollars more — because some states don’t fully account for the cost of cleaning up pollution. In addition, regulators have yet to locate many wells whose owners have already walked away without plugging them, known as orphan wells, which states predict will number at least in the hundreds of thousands.“The data presents an urgent call to action for state regulators and the Department of the Interior to swiftly and effectively update bond amounts,” said Shannon Anderson, who tracks the oil industry’s cleanup as organizing director of the Powder River Basin Resource Council, a nonprofit that advocates for Wyoming communities. Anderson and nine other experts, including petroleum engineers and financial analysts, reviewed ProPublica and Capital & Main’s findings, which were built using records from 30 state and federal agencies.“We have allowed companies intentionally to do this,” said Megan Milliken Biven, who reviewed the data and is a former program analyst for the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, a federal regulator of offshore oil rigs, and founder of True Transition, a nonprofit that advocates for oil field workers. “It is the inevitable consequence of an entire regulatory program that is more red carpet than red tape.”
Rules to ensure there’s enough cash to plug all Colorado oil wells may not get the job done, study says - New Colorado rules to insure there is enough cash to plug each oil and gas well in the state at the end of its life may not generate enough money to do the job, according to an analysis by Carbon Tracker.The report by the nonprofit environmental think tank said that in the short-run the state may end up with less in financial guarantees than it had before the new rules were adopted nearly two years ago and about 39% of oil and gas companies still have not completed financial assurance plans.The Colorado Energy and Carbon Management Commission, which adopted and administers the financial assurance rules, disputes those findings.In April 2022, the state held 1,593 active bonds totaling about $243 million, the commission said in a statement to The Colorado Sun. The new rules were adopted in March 2022, and the ECMC now has 1,827 active bonds totaling $399 million.The commission said it has approved financial assurance plans that will grow that amount to a projected balance of $820 million.The financial assurance rules were required under Senate Bill 181, which reoriented oil and gas regulation in Colorado from promoting drilling to protecting public health, safety and welfare and the environment and wildlife.The biggest share of those funds, however, will come from operators with many low-producing wells paying into their state plans over the next 10 to 20 years.“This is a story of the haves and have-nots,” said Rob Schuwerk, executive director of Carbon Tracker’s North American office and a co-author of the report. The “haves” are the large companies, who in many cases will see their bonding requirements go down, and the “have-nots” are smaller operators with marginal wells, who may face increased obligations.“The money will mostly come from operators producing less than 2 boe/d (the equivalent of two barrels of oil a day) per well,” the report said. “Thus, the bulk of future bonding is exposed to low-producing operator default risk over a 10-year time horizon, replicating the problems SB19-181 was intended to solve.”The ECMC said that it will retain the bonds posted by these smaller companies under the previous rules, which required bonding for plugging wells and surface cleanup, and the status of each operator will be reviewed annually.The rules create five categories of financial assurance depending on the volume of oil and gas a company produces, with large companies able to cover their operations with blanket bonds.The smaller, low-producing companies could have either 10 or 20 years to pay into a fund to meet plugging costs for each well or seek a customized plan.“These strategies really aren’t going to be able to fix the problem because if you think about it, that means those entities will be contributing an additional 5% or 10% of their burden every year, as their wells produce less and less,” Schuwerk said.
Bill would stop new oil, gas permits in Colorado by 2030 -A group of Democratic legislators recently introduced a bill to stop new permitting for oil and gas development in Colorado by 2030.Senate Bill 24-159 would require the Colorado Energy & Carbon Management Commission to adopt rules to end the issuing of new oil and gas permits by Jan. 1, 2030, and additional reductions in the total number of permits for new wells in 2028 and 2029. The legislation also would require new permits issued after 2024 to stop operations by 2032."Climate pollution from oil and gas wells in Colorado exacerbates climate change, which has been declared the greatest global threat to public health by two hundred medical journals, and has adverse impacts on Coloradans' health and well-being," says the bill, which was introduced in the Senate Tuesday.“I think most Coloradans agree with us that we can’t keep drilling forever,” said bill sponsor Sen. Sonya Jaquez Lewis, D-Boulder County, according to the environmental advocacy group WildEarth Guardians. “It’s a finite energy source. Fossil fuel demand is going down in Colorado because we are starting to transition to clean energy.”“There are going to be thousands of wells producing well after 2050. No one at all is trying to halt oil and gas production,” she added.Kait Schwartz, director of the American Petroleum Institute Colorado, said the oil and natural gas industry has worked to meet the state’s climate targets and the legislation threatens employment and the economy.“The proposal pays no mind to private property rights, our industry’s dramatic economic contributions to Colorado, the livelihoods of tens of thousands of workers, nor a swath of rulemaking over the past half-decade that has cemented our state as a truly global leader in safe and responsible energy production,” Schwartz said in a statement. “… the sponsors of this bill are doing nothing less than championing the most extreme anti-energy proposal in the history of our state, all the while ignoring the needs of everyday Coloradans who are already struggling with increasing everyday costs, including utility rates.”According to the trade group, Colorado's oil and gas industry provides $34.1 billion in labor income or 12% of the state's total employment revenue. Oil and natural gas production in the state accounted for approximately $18 billion in 2021 and was approximately 85% higher than the $9.74 billion estimate for the previous year, according to the Colorado Geological Survey. In 2021, oil and natural gas production was approximately 88% of the state's total mineral and energy production value. “Although 2021 oil and gas production decreased in Colorado, oil and natural gas production remains higher than historical values and production values have increased from 2016 due to higher prices and an increase in demand,” the Colorado Geological Survey reported. “Colorado has the eighth-largest proven oil reserves and the ninth-largest proven natural gas reserves in the U.S.” Colorado is the eighth-largest producer of natural gas in the nation, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The state's natural gas reserves make up approximately 4% of the U.S. total, the federal agency said. Colorado has all or part of the nation’s 100 largest natural gas fields and its natural gas output doubled from 2000 to 2022. Colorado’s crude oil industry is the fifth largest in the nation, providing approximately 4% of total U.S. output, according to the EIA. In 2022, the state produced almost five times more crude oil than in 2010 due to the increased use hydraulic fracturing. Monthly crude oil production peaked at slightly more than 17 million barrels in November 2019 and declined to approximately 11 million barrels by February 2021 due to the pandemic. In 2022, production increased 3%, the first year-on-year increase in two years.SB24-159 was assigned to the Senate Agriculture & Natural Resources Committee, but no hearing has been scheduled yet.
North Dakota Natural Gas Prices Hit 28-Year Low, Highlighting Takeaway Constraints - Oil producers in North Dakota’s Bakken Shale are facing the lowest natural gas prices in nearly three decades, according to the state’s top regulator. Department of Mineral Resources (DMR) Director Lynn Helms addressed the issue during a recent press conference. The price of natural gas delivered to the Northern Border pipeline system at Watford City, ND, stood at $1.17/Mcf as of Thursday, the lowest price since June 1996, according to DMR. Farther downstream on the same system, NGI’s Daily Northern Border Ventura price averaged $1.365/MMBtu on Tuesday (Feb. 20).
Chord, Enerplus Building $11B Bakken Oil, Natural Gas Heavyweight with Merger -- Chord Energy Corp. has agreed to acquire fellow Williston Basin producer Enerplus Corp. in a stock and cash transaction that would create a company with a combined enterprise value of about $11 billion. The purchase price equates to almost $4 billion, based on closing share prices Wednesday when the deal was announced, noted Enverus Intelligence Research Senior Vice President Andrew Dittmar. The two Bakken Shale heavyweights produced a combined 287,000 boe/d in the fourth quarter. They expect oil to account for 56% of the combined production after the deal is finalized. The oily Bakken produces vast amounts of liquids-rich associated natural gas, with gas-to-oil ratios on the rise as operators move from depleted core areas into gassier second and third-tier acreage.
California proposes fracking phaseout, making good on Newsom’s pledge -California regulators have released official plans for phasing out fracking in the Golden State — nearly three years after Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) declared his intentions to do so.The proposed regulation would amend the state’s Public Resources Code by including a clause “to phase out permits to conduct well stimulation treatments,” according to a notice from the California Department of Conservation’s Geologic Energy Management Division (CalGEM).Well stimulation treatments are processes employed at oil and gas wells to boost production, including hydraulic fracturing — also known as fracking — as well as acid fracturing and acid matrix techniques.“While these methods are highly effective at increasing well productivity, there has been significant public concern about their potential environmental and health effects,” an initial statement of reasons from CalGEM said.The proposed regulation, which would apply to projects both onshore and offshore, emphasizes that CalGEM would “not approve applications for permits to conduct well stimulation treatments.” Newsom first announced CalGEM’s intentions to initiate such regulatory action in April 2021, citing the need to “create a healthier future for our children.”“I’ve made it clear I don’t see a role for fracking in that future and, similarly, believe that California needs to move beyond oil,” Newsom said at the time.CalGEM’s statement of reasons behind the proposal described an aim of protecting life, property, public health and safety, while also mitigating greenhouse gas emissions related to California’s hydrocarbon sector.The regulator estimated that in 2020 — the most recent year with available data — 12.1 percent of total oil and 16.6 percent of total gas in California came from wells that had at some point undergone well stimulation treatments.While oil and gas industry representatives have long maintained that fracking is safe and necessary, activists have argued that the technology can cause undue harm to the environment and human health. Following Newsom’s initial April 2021 declaration, Catherine Reheis-Boyd, president and CEO of the Western States Petroleum Association, accused the governor of ignoring science and facts. Such a phaseout, Reheis-Boyd said at the time, would “only hurt workers, families and communities in California and turns our energy independence over to foreign suppliers.”
California’s Oil Country Hopes Carbon Management Will Provide Jobs. It May Be Disappointed -- On a recent Tuesday evening, several oil workers in Kern County, California, spoke out in support of a project that they hope will create much-needed jobs.“What I’m hoping to get out of this is hope for my grandson’s generation,” said Allen Miller, a third-generation oilman who came to work in the petroleum-rich region in 1984. “That they can provide for their family the way my grandpa did and the way I did.”The audience applauded Miller’s comments during a crowded public meeting in Taft, a city of about 8,500, in the heart of the state’s oil country. The proposed project, known as Carbon TerraVault 1, would store millions of tons of planet-warming carbon a mile beneath the nearby Elk Hills Oil Field. Oil production in that field and others nearby has sustained the county’s economy for over a century. “This is our oil field,” said Manny Campos, a longtime Taft resident and businessman. “I’m glad to see we are being intentional about keeping it that way and keeping the benefits local.” Some environmental advocates are skeptical of the carbon removal industry — and its ability to create a significant number of jobs — but California policymakers view carbon removal and storage as a necessary tool to manage greenhouse gas emissions. The fledgling technology is a key part of the state’s plan to fight climate change, which also includes phasing out oil drilling by 2045. The county and California Resources Corporation (CRC), the oil company hoping to build the TerraVault, see carbon management as a vital new revenue stream. Kern County stands to lose thousands of jobs and millions in tax dollars as drilling declines But carbon storage facilities themselves are not currently projected to generate large numbers of jobs, according to a report prepared for the county. Kern’s own analysis shows the initial phase of the TerraVault project will only produce five permanent positions.
Mexico End Users Securing Bargain Natural Gas Prices with Higher February Imports – North American natural gas prices have been hammered for the past two weeks, and despite a minor rally, remain well below the $2.00 mark. The March New York Mercantile Exchange gas futures contract on Thursday settled at $1.732/MMBtu, down 4.1 cents day/day. Prices had jumped on Wednesday after Chesapeake Energy Corp. said it intended to pull back production from the Haynesville and Marcellus shales. Still, U.S. production remained strong at around 103 Bcf/d and mild weather conditions have kept demand in check. “Prices have been low since they peaked during the mid-Jan winter storm,” Mexico trader Santiago Villareal told NGI’s Mexico GPI. “In Mexico, on the user side, they are very pleased. Everything that they budgeted for is getting cheaper. But this has had an...
UK Quits Treaty Allowing Oil Firms to Sue Governments Over Climate Policy -- The UK will leave the Energy Charter Treaty (ECT), a 1994 pact that allows oil and gas companies to sue governments over their climate policies for compensation for lost profits.The Energy Charter Treaty was originally designed to promote international investment in the energy sector and has historically provided protections for investors in fossil fuels. Efforts to modernize the treaty, which the UK considers “outdated” in view of its net-zero policies and ambitions, have failed, resulting in a stalemate, which prompted the UK government to announce on Thursday that it would leave the Energy Charter Treaty (ECT) “after the failure of efforts to align it with net zero.” After considering the views of businesses, industry, and civil society, ministers will now instigate the UK’s withdrawal, which will take effect after one year, removing protections for new investments after this period. ?The UK is not the only European country quitting the treaty—France, Spain, the Netherlands, and six other EU member states have announced similar moves.According to the UK, proposals to modernize the treaty to support cleaner technologies have been subject to months of talks between European countries, resulting in a stalemate. The UK government believes that the decision to leave the treaty “will support the UK’s transition to net zero and strengthen its energy security.”“The Energy Charter Treaty is outdated and in urgent need of reform but talks have stalled and sensible renewal looks increasingly unlikely,” the UK’s Minister of State for Energy Security and Net Zero, Graham Stuart, said in a statement.“Remaining a member would not support our transition to cleaner, cheaper energy, and could even penalise us for our world-leading efforts to deliver net zero.”
Spot LNG shipping rates flat, European prices dip - Spot charter rates for the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) carrier fleet were almost flat this week, while European and Asian prices decreased compared to the week before.Last week, charter rates rose for the first time since mid-November 2023 due to the opening of the US arbitrage to NE-Asia, coupled with the increased voyage time from the diversion of cargoes unable to transit the Suez Canal.“Freight rates have stayed almost level this week, with the Spark30S Atlantic unchanged at $54,500 per day, whilst the Spark25S Pacific increased by $500 (1 percent) to $58,000 per day,” Qasim Afghan, Spark’s commercial analyst, told LNG Prime on Friday.Since January, LNG carriers, including Qatari vessels delivering LNG shipments to Europe, are favoring the Cape of Good Hope for safer passage.Kpler said earlier this month that the Suez Canal has witnessed no LNG transits since January 17.Vessels face an extra 21-day voyage time on a round-trip basis via the Cape of Good Hope as opposed to the Suez Canal.In Europe, the SparkNWE DES LNG front month dipped compared to the last week.The NWE DES LNG for March delivery was assessed last week $8.172/MMBtu and at a $0.60/MMBtu discount to the TTF.“SparkNWE front month reaches a new 8 month low, with the SparkNWE DES LNG price for March delivery assessed at $7.339/MMBtu and at a $0.535/MMBtu discount to the TTF,” Afghan said. He said this is a $0.833/MMBtu decrease in DES LNG price, and a $0.065/MMBtu narrowing of the discount to the TTF.
Rystad Says European Gas Storage Is 65 Percent Full - In Rystad Energy’s latest gas and LNG market update, the company’s senior analyst, Lu Ming Pang, highlighted that European gas storage levels were at 75.23 billion cubic meters, “or 65.5 percent full”, as of February 17. European gas storage levels were at 77.05 billion cubic meters, “or 67.1 percent full”, on February 10 and at 70.50 billion cubic meters on February 17, 2023, Pang outlined in the update, which was sent to Rigzone late Tuesday. “Despite colder weather earlier in January, which reduced storage levels to those seen in January 2023, warmer than normal weather has since prevailed in Europe and is anticipated to continue until early March,” Pang said in the update. “This has allowed underground gas storage to build up again compared to previous years and is likely to reduce demand for restocking during the injection season,” Pang added. “As Europe approaches winter’s end with higher than normal gas in storage, the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) forward curve continues to reflect a relatively subdued market, with prices in the high $7 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) range until September 2024,” Pang went on to state. In the update, Pang noted that prices at Europe’s TTF have continued to decline, “falling from $7.8 per MMBtu last week to $7.48 per MMBtu at the time of writing on 20 February”. “Bearish fundamentals persist despite mild disruptions in Norwegian gas pipeline flows, as European storage levels remain high compared to previous years amid relatively warm weather across the continent,” Pang said in the update. Norwegian pipeline gas flows to Europe were 338.49 million cubic meters per day (MMcmd) as of February 18, according to Pang, who highlighted in the update that this was “slightly less than the 350 MMcmd seen earlier in the winter”. “A dip to 317.80 MMcmd on February 15 and 16 did little to reverse bearish fundamentals in Europe’s well supplied market,” Pang continued. A BofA Global Research report sent to Rigzone on February 16 highlighted that European gas prices “have continued to slide so far in 2024”. “Dutch TTF prices have fallen >20 percent year to date and now sit at ~$8 per MMBTU, having averaged $38/13/MMBTU across 2022 and 2023,” the report added. “Forward curves have slumped too, yet for context, they remain approximately double the historical price average prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as Europe’s reliance on global LNG markets has jumped to >30 percent from <10 percent before - putting the continent in more direct competition for gas with Asia,” the report went on to state. In a separate gas and LNG market update sent to Rigzone on February 8, Rystad Senior Analyst Masanori Odaka said underground gas storage facilities in Europe were 68.6 percent full, highlighting that they were around 79 billion cubic meters. “Average withdrawals from storage fell 7.4 percent on the week to approximately 500 MMcmd, compared to 590 MMcmd in the same period last year,” Odaka said in the statement.
Norway’s Gas Exports May Hit a Record This Year, Equinor Says - -- Natural gas supplies from Norway may potentially reach a fresh record this year as the country works to reduce its maintenance schedule across its facilities. “We could get higher volumes than what we saw last year,” Helge Haugane, senior vice president for gas and power at the Norwegian energy giant Equinor ASA said in an interview in Essen, Germany. “In 2023, there was a lot of maintenance, in 2024 there will be less.” Norway is Europe’s largest supplier, having exported about 109 billion cubic meters of natural gas to the continent in 2023, according to data from grid operator Gassco AS. The country’s relevance for Europe’s energy security became clear last summer, when unplanned works at some of its facilities sent jitters across markets, just as the region was rebuilding its energy mix following the loss of much of Russia’s pipeline flows. With the continent’s gas market now impacted by a several global factors, volatility is likely to be a regular feature. “Russian pipeline gas is practically out for Europe and liquefied natural gas will definitely have a longer response time than pipeline gas,” Haugane said. “And that’s one of the reasons why we expect more volatility going forward.” Read More: Gassco Delivered Record Natural Gas to Europe in December Equinor has been working to increase the capacity of its facilities, including reducing bottlenecks at Kollsnes, that’s “increased capacity from 144 million cubic meters a day to 156,” Haugane said. LNG Portfolio Equinor is also building its liquefied natural gas portfolio, having signed two deals to buy the fuel from Cheniere Energy Inc. and to sell the super-chilled fuel to India’s Deepak Fertilisers. “We are building an LNG portfolio, with supply from Norway, the US and we have some other deals which we haven’t disclosed,” Haugane said. “And then we want to have a diversified outlet for that LNG as well.” Demand growth will come from countries looking to replace coal with gas, Haugane said. “India is going to be an even larger player in the future global market.” Equinor is discussing gas sales “across the board” with “big ones’ which could be concluded soon, he added. “Also, a lot of smaller contracts are being signed, especially in the Baltics region. And we are also in dialog with customers in the industrials segment.”
Equinor Bags 15-Year LNG Order from Indian Fertilizer Producer - Equinor ASA has signed a deal to supply about 650,000 metric tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG) per annum to Deepak Fertilizers and Petrochemicals Corp. Ltd. for 15 years starting 2026, the Norwegian energy major said.. “Equinor’s growing global LNG portfolio is based on LNG from the Equinor operated LNG Plant in Hammerfest, Norway and LNG supply sourced mainly from the US”, the majority-state-owned company said in a news release. “This portfolio will be the base of supply to Deepak, which will use the gas mainly as feedstock for production of ammonia in its newly commissioned plant for manufacturing fertilizers and petrochemicals”. Hammerfest LNG on the island of Melkoya has a declared normal production capacity of 230 billion cubic feet per year. “Deepak’s new ammonia plant has created new gas demand in the growing Indian market”, Equinor senior vice-president for gas and power Helge Haugane said in a statement. “The agreement is another proof of how we use our position in the Atlantic basin to strengthen our relationship with key players in the growing Indian market”, Haugane said, adding the two companies are exploring further collaboration involving petrochemical feedstocks such as ethane and propane, as well as on low-carbon ammonia. Deepak chair and managing director Sailesh C. Mehta said, “The agreement will help us absorb global volatility as well as enhance overall margins”. “We also look forward to exploring with Equinor further collaboration on feedstock and carbon footprint reduction initiatives”, Mehta added. This is Equinor’s first announced LNG order for the year. On December 19 it announced an agreement to supply around 10 billion cubic meters (353.1 billion cubic feet) of natural gas annually to Germany’s state-owned midstream energy company SEFE GmbH for 10 years, extendable for five years. Delivery was to start January 2024. “The annual volumes are equivalent to one-third of German industrial demand”, Equinor said in a press release at the time. “After the Troll gas sales agreement in 1986, this is one of the largest gas sales agreements Equinor has entered into as a company”, it noted.
Equinor seals 15-year LNG supply deal with India's Deepak Fertilisers - Norway’s Equinor and India’s Deepak Fertilisers have signed a 15-year deal for supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) with deliveries starting in 2026. The agreement covers an annual supply of around 0.65 million tons (ca 9 TWh) of LNG, Equinor said in a statement on Monday. The firm said its growing global LNG portfolio is based on LNG from its operated plant in Hammerfest, Norway and LNG supply sourced mainly from the US. This portfolio will be the base of supply to Deepak, which will use the gas mainly as feedstock for production of ammonia in its newly commissioned plant for manufacturing fertilizers and petrochemicals. Equinor’s senior VP for gas and Power, Helge Haugane, said Deepak’s new ammonia plant has created new gas demand in the growing Indian market. Equinor and its partners in the 4.3 mtpa Hammerfest LNG export plant are currently working to upgrade the facility located on Melkoya island. Hammerfest LNG liquefies natural gas coming from the Snohvit field in the Barents Sea. As per the US supplies, US LNG exporting giant Cheniere signed last year a long-term supply deal with Equinor. Under the SPA, Cheniere Marketing will supply about 1.75 mtpa of LNG to Equinor on a free-on-board basis. This agreement brings the total volumes that Equinor has contracted with Cheniere up to around 3.5 mtpa. Delivery of half of the volume associated with the new SPA will start in 2027, and delivery of the remaining half, which is subject to, among other things, a positive final investment decision with respect to the first train of the Sabine Pass expansion project, will start at the end of this decade.
European Natural Gas Demand Forecast to Stabilize, but Price Volatility Looms Large - European natural gas demand has shown few signs of recovery so far this year as warm weather and industrial curtailments persist, but the fall in gas consumption on the continent is expected to slow this year compared to its downward spiral of 2023. Between August 2022 and December, European Union (EU) countries reduced gas demand by 18% compared to the five-year average, according to the European Commission. Despite a limited number of forecasted heating days left on the calendar and storage volumes still above average in Europe, Rystad Energy Analyst Mathia Schioldborg told NGI that gas demand may have hit a balancing point for the rest of the year.
Israel's Tamar Gas Field To Double Exports To Egypt - The United States energy giant Chevron and its partners in the Tamar reservoir off Israel's Mediterranean coast on Sunday announced their decision to invest $24 million to bolster natural gas production capacity from the offshore field. The field’s output capacity is estimated to increase by approximately 1.6 billion cubic feet (bcf) per day to satisfy domestic energy demand and expand exports to Egypt that are reportedly planned to double in the coming years. The Tamar partners are said to have agreed to supply an additional four billion cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas annually to Egypt for 11 years, totalling around 43bcm. Chevron Eastern Mediterranean business unit managing director Jeff Ewing said: “Reaching [final investment decision] FID for phase two of Tamar’s expansion reflects Chevron’s ongoing commitment to partnering with the State of Israel to continue development of its energy resources for the benefit of domestic and regional natural gas markets," reported The Times of Israel. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1387192385181036546 This post can't be displayed because social networks cookies have been deactivated. You can activate them by clicking manage preferences. With a 25% stake, Chevron is the key operator of the Tamar gas field. Other partners are Isramco with a 28.75% interest, Mubadala Energy from Abu Dhabi with an 11% stake, Tamar Investment 2 (11%), Tamar Petroleum (16.75%), Dor Gas (4%) and Everest (3.5%).
Magni Partners books more VLCCs in China - Tor Olav Troim’s firm Magni Partners has ordered two more LNG-powered very large crude carriers in China, according to brokers.The management consulting company ordered two 320,000-dwt LNG dual-fuel VLCCs at China’s New Times Shipbuilding, Clarksons said in a report.The broker said that Magni Partners declared options from the contract signed last yearfor two LNG-powered VLCCs.Andes Shipping is reportedly the entity behind the order.New Times is expected to deliver these two new ships in 2027.Also, the price tag has not been revealed but the first two vessels were said to be each worth at about $138 million. VesselsValue data also suggests that the new vessels are worth about $138 million.Some reports said that it has still not been decided for the two new vessels whether they would feature LNG propulsion.LNG Prime did not manage to get official confirmation for the LNG dual-fuel VLCC order by the time this article was published.Troim’s Himalaya Shipping already has twelve 210,000-dwt Newcastlemax LNG dual-fuel bulk carriers on order at New Times. The Chinese shipbuilder delivered nine of these LNG-powered bulkers up to date.
Nebula Energy Buys Majority Stake in AG&P LNG to Fast-Track Asian Natural Gas Projects - U.S.-based Nebula Energy LLC has invested $300 million for a majority stake in AG&P Terminals & Logistics Pte Ltd., aka AG&P LNG. The investment firm is expanding its business in the liquefied natural gas and carbon capture and storage sectors with its investment in AG&P, with plans to fast-track infrastructure development across emerging markets in South and Southeast Asia. “With this partnership, AG&P LNG will singularly serve as the one-point integrated source for the rapid unlocking of near-term market demand,” said CEO Karthik Sathyamoorthy. AG&P has six LNG terminals in development in Asia, with a proposed capacity of 25 million metric tons/per year (mmty). AG&P operates an LNG import and regasification terminal in the Philippines, a converted floating, storage and...
Adnoc Inches toward Improved Bid for Covestro: Sources - Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. is inching toward an improved bid for Covestro AG after finding a potential way to resolve the impasse over its EUR 11.3 billion ($12.1 billion) pursuit of the German chemical maker, people familiar with the matter said. Adnoc is working with a consulting firm that’s sent dozens of questions to Covestro about the details of its operations, according to the people. The responses could give the Abu Dhabi-based energy giant enough information to improve its bid to slightly more than €60 per share, the people said, asking not to be identified because the information is private. Shares of Covestro jumped as much as 8.1 percent in late Frankfurt trading Thursday. They were up 4.8 percent at 5:35 p.m. in Germany, giving the company a market value of about EUR 9.4 billion. In December, Adnoc improved its non-binding offer to EUR 60 per share, up from previous proposals of EUR 57 and EUR 55, Bloomberg News has reported. The latest increase wasn’t enough to win over some parts of Covestro’s supervisory board, which thus hasn’t granted Adnoc full access to its data room, the people said. While Adnoc executives were struggling to justify another bump without access to proper due diligence, Covestro’s responses to the latest questions may help bridge the gap, the people said. It’s still unclear how much Adnoc may be willing to increase its bid and whether it will be enough to win over Covestro. Deliberations are ongoing, and there’s no certainty they will lead to a deal. Representatives for Adnoc and Covestro declined to comment. Adnoc has been pursuing Covestro since the middle of last year, part of the Abu Dhabi company’s push to diversify internationally. Its overtures come as the European chemical industry struggles with the region’s anemic growth and a weaker-than-expected rebound in China. Producers including Lanxess AG and BASF SE warned of disappointing earnings last year. Covestro will announce its full-year results on Feb. 29, when investors also expect it to provide an outlook for the current year and beyond. Covestro indicated in November it’s on track to generate about EUR 1.4 billion in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization in 2024, well below the EUR 2.8 billion it said it could achieve under average market conditions.
Russia remains top oil supplier to India, imports climb 25% in December -Russia remained the top supplier of oil to India in December, accounting for nearly a third of the crude brought into the country, according to commerce ministry's data. At $3.92 billion, the value of the crude oil supply from Russia increased by 25% year-on-year. Sequentially, crude imports from that country increased by 8% from $3.61 billion in November last year, the data showed. Moscow was the biggest crude supplier to India in 2023, accounting for more than 30% of its imports, and will likely remain so through early 2024 despite the Red Sea crisis, as per a report by S&P Global Commodity Insights in January. This is significant because, despite Russian oil initially remaining unaffected by the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, the situation has evolved with recent reports of Russian oil cargoes coming under attack. This has forced ships to take different routes, via the Cape of Good Hope, and traders to recalculate costs. Meanwhile, the increase in oil supplies from Russia has coincided with a year-on-year decline in imports from traditional suppliers in the Gulf region. Iraq was the second-largest source of crude oil for India in December, supplying $2.42 billion worth of the commodity, 4% lower year-on-year. Supplies from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) fell 24.84% and 3.01% to $1.91 billion and $973.85 million, respectively. The US was the fifth-largest supplier in December, with oil worth $413.61 million coming from the country. Imports from the US have declined by a massive 79.87% year-on-year. Prior to the Ukraine conflict, in fiscal year 2021-22, Russian oil accounted for only 2% of India’s total oil imports, with Iraq being the top supplier, followed by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. However, post-invasion, Russia climbed to the top, driven by substantial discounts on oil prices. Despite a decrease in these discounts from over $30 per barrel to $4-6 per barrel, India's procurement of Russian oil has continued, even amid Western concerns.
QatarEnergy Starts Construction for Major Petrochemical Complex -Qatar Amir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani has laid the foundation stone for the petrochemical complex of QatarEnergy and Chevron Phillips Chemical Co. L.L.C. (CPChem) in Ras Laffan Industrial City, a project expected to raise the Gulf state’s petrochemical production to about 14 million metric tons per annum (MMtpa) by 2026. “The Ras Laffan Petrochemical Complex is being built at a cost of $6 billion, making it the largest investment in history of QatarEnergy in Qatar’s petrochemicals sector”, QatarEnergy president and chief executive Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, who is also the country’s energy affairs minister, told the groundbreaking ceremony, according to a news release by state-owned QatarEnergy. “There is no doubt that this is an important landmark in QatarEnergy’s downstream expansion strategy as it will reinforce our integrated position as a global energy player and generate significant economic benefits for the country”. The 435-acre complex is planned to have an ethane cracker that can produce 2.1 MMtpa of ethylene, making it the biggest ethylene plant in the Middle East and one of the world’s largest, according to the owners. This would increase Qatar’s ethylene output capacity by over 40 percent, QatarEnergy said. The project also includes two polyethylene trains with a combined production of 1.7 MMtpa of high-density polyethylene polymer products, which would raise Qatar’s production of such products by about 50 percent, according to the owners. “This project advances CPChem’s long-held strategy to expand its operations in regions where feedstock is reliable and abundant and will help meet the global demand for polyethylene products”, outgoing CPChem president and CEO Bruce Chinn said in a separate press release. The bulk of the high-density polyethylene polymer products from the Ras Laffan complex is planned for export to other countries, CPChem said. Polyethylene is a plastic used in packaging for a variety of products from personal care products to food, as well as in the production of durable goods. CPChem said the project will use energy-saving technology and employ other measures that result in lower greenhouse gas emissions compared to similar global facilities. QatarEnergy holds a 70 percent equity share while Chevron Phillips Chemical Co. L.L.C. owns the remaining 30 percent. The partners earlier began construction for an integrated polymers production facility in Orange, Texas. The 1,600-acre Golden Triangle Polymers project has a planned capacity of 2.1 MMtpa for its ethylene unit and a combined 2.0 MMtpa for two polyethylene units. Qatar’s “prominent standing in the petrochemical industry will be further strengthened when we commence production of the Golden Triangle Polymers Plant in 2026, which we are developing in the US state of Texas at a cost of $8.5 billion in partnership with Chevron Phillips Chemical, and which is considered the biggest in the world”, Al Kaabi told the groundbreaking ceremony in Qatar. The ceremony was attended by executives from QatarEnergy, CPChem and the latter’s owners—Chevron U.S.A. Inc. and Phillips 66 Co. CPChem holds a 51 percent equity share in the project being built near an already operational polyethylene facility it owns. QatarEnergy has the remaining 49 percent. Both the United States and Qatar projects are expected to start production 2026.
World Oil Supply Posts Sharp Decline in January -- World oil supply in January posted a sharp decline of 1.4 million barrels per day month on month after an Arctic blast shut in production in North America and as OPEC+ deepened output cuts, the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated in its latest oil market report (OMR). “Extreme weather conditions shut in more than 900,000 barrels per day of production across North America,” the IEA said in its February OMR. “The steep loss coincided with fresh OPEC+ voluntary output cuts of around 300,000 barrels per day, resulting in a massive 1.4 million barrel per day month on month decline in global oil supply,” it added. “However, the rising wave of non-OPEC+ oil growth resumes in 2Q24, driving output on an upward trajectory for the rest of the year,” the IEA continued. In the OMR, the IEA said world oil supply is set to increase by 1.7 million barrels per day this year. The IEA highlighted in the OMR that total global oil supply rose by two million barrels per day in 2023. In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected that global production of liquid fuels will hit 101.18 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2024, 102.27 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 102.88 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 102.87 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, and 102.30 million barrels per day overall in 2024. The EIA’s February STEO placed total world production at 101.75 million barrels per day in 2023. “We expect that global production of liquid fuels will increase by 0.6 million barrels per day in 2024, slowing from the increase of almost 1.8 million barrels per day in 2023,” the EIA noted in its latest STEO. “In our forecast, global growth in liquid fuels production is led by non-OPEC supply, which increases by almost 0.8 million barrels per day, offsetting an OPEC production decline of 0.2 million barrels per day,” it added. The EIA’s February STEO projected that total world output will hit 103.42 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2025, 104.01 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 104.54 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 104.69 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, and 104.17 million barrels per day overall in 2025. “Global liquids fuel production increases by almost 1.9 million barrels per day in 2025 in our forecast,” the EIA said in the STEO. “The expiration of existing OPEC+ production targets at the end of 2024 contributes to our forecast that OPEC will increase crude oil production by 0.7 million next year. However, we expect the increase will be limited because Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ countries will maintain some level of cuts in an attempt to balance markets,” it added. “Our forecast for non-OPEC production growth averages 1.2 million barrels per day in 2025, led by the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana,” the EIA continued. In its previous January STEO, the EIA projected that total world production would hit 102.34 million barrels per day in 2024 and 103.95 million barrels per day in 2025. That STEO forecast that total world output would come in at 101.33 million barrels per day in the first quarter of this year.
ADNOC CEO: Global Energy Demand Growth Is Unsustainable -- Last month, U.S. oil and gas supermajor Exxon Mobil released its long-term global energy outlook report. Exxon has predicted that global energy demand will reach about 660 quadrillion Btu in 2050, good for a 15% increase from 2021 levels reflecting a growing population and rising prosperity. The energy company has projected that renewables and nuclear will record strong growth through 2050, contributing around 70% of incremental energy supplies; natural gas demand will remain robust and reach almost 30% of all demand by 2050, oil demand will peak in the 2030s but only fall slightly over the next two decades while coal demand will continue to decline sharply. Interestingly, the developing world is expected to drive all of the demand growth, with Exxon predicting that non-OECD share of global energy demand will reach around 70% in 2050 while the combined share of energy consumption by the U.S. and Europe will decline from about 30% in 2021 to about 20% in 2050. Whereas these appear like healthy trends that might help the world ameliorate its climate crisis, not everybody is that sanguine. Al Jaber, chief executive officer of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) and president of last year’s Cop28 summit says that the current trajectory of rapid energy demand growth is unsustainable. “The energy transition will lead to energy turmoil … if we only address the supply side of the energy equation. We must be balanced, we must tackle the demand side … We cannot and should not pursue the energy transition by only looking and working on one side of the equation,” Al-Jaber has told the Guardian. According to Al-Jaber, it is unlikely that global carbon reduction targets can be met unless the world cuts energy demand, adding that many governments are reluctant to look at the complex issues around this area. Al-Jaber’s sentiments are shared by the U.S. climate envoy John Kerry, “Saying we will, for the first time in history, transition away from fossil fuel, and adjust in an orderly equitable manner … and in accordance with the science that by 2050 [we will] accomplish net zero, means everybody has to have a plan, and that is not where we are today,” Kerry has said. Kerry has taken a veiled swipe at China and its plan to bring 360 Gigawatts of coal-fired power online, saying, “And if that happens, it will wipe out all of the gains of Europe, the U.S. and other parts of the world.”
Nigeria Restricts Company Transfers of Oil Export Revenues Abroad The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has decided to control the migration of export proceeds by international oil companies (IOCs) to their parent accounts offshore, saying the practice harms the liquidity of the domestic foreign exchange market. “While the CBN strongly supports the need for IOCs to have easy access to their export proceeds, particularly to meet their offshore obligations, this must be done with minimal negative impact on liquidity in the Nigerian foreign exchange market”, it said in a circular issued to dealer banks about the practice known as cash pooling. “In line with the ongoing reforms in the foreign exchange market, it has become necessary to take measures to address this trend”, the national bank said referring to its campaign to liberalize the West African country’s forex market. Now, Nigerian banks are only allowed to pool cash worth up to 50 percent of repatriated proceeds in the first instance. “The balance of 50 percent may be repatriated after 90 days from the date of inflow of the export proceeds”, read the circular, accessible on the CBN website. Dealer banks need to have a cash pooling agreement with the parent company of an oil operator before such a transaction, as well as obtain prior approval of the CBN for fund repatriation, according to the circular. IOCs are allowed to obtain currency abroad to exchange in Nigeria to meet their local expenses, according to credit guidelines on the bank’s website. On October 12 the CBN lifted a 2015 ban on the importers of 43 items to buy foreign currency in Nigeria. In its latest assessment published November 3 Fitch Ratings said foreign currency shortages continued “to weigh on economic activity and further FX liberalization, and deter foreign capital”. Reuters reported October 9 citing Nigerian National Petroleum Co. Ltd. (NNPC) chief executive Mele Kyari that the national oil and gas company has again become the only importer of petrol because private firms could not obtain foreign currency. In June Kyari told the news organization NNPC has started paying cash for gasoline imports in lieu of crude swap contracts. NNPC had been repaying gasoline imported from consortiums of foreign and local trading firms through crude oil under direct contracts since 2016 because the company did not have enough cash to pay for petroleum imports, Reuters said June 4 citing “data and trading sources”. On January 18 the CBN said it had paid $2 billion in foreign exchange liabilities across various sectors including petroleum, aviation and manufacturing. “The Bank has also cleared up the entire liability of 14 banks and started settlements with foreign airlines”, it said in a statement on social media platform X, formerly Twitter.
OPEC May Review Supply Curbs In March - The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC)+ nations may likely take a stand in early March on whether to extend oil production cuts into the second quarter, delegates said.Seven coalition members have pledged supply curbs totaling about 900,000 barrels per day, bpd this quarter, in tandem with a 1 million barrels a day MMbpd reduction by group leader Saudi Arabia.They will review whether to continue the curbs in about one month’s time, according to officials, who asked not to be identified.OPEC and its partners are trying to stave off a global supply surplus amid slowing demand growth and record U.S. shale production.Oil prices have seen only limited gains this year holding near $80 a barrel in London even as conflict rages in the Middle East and shipping comes under attack in the Red Sea.That is a little too low for some OPEC+ members to cover government spending.
Oil gains marginally as demand jitters counter Middle East conflict - Brent crude oil prices settled slightly higher in an abbreviated session on Monday, as lingering supply concerns from tensions in the Middle East were offset by signs of weakening demand. Oil markets' saw thinner volumes than usual due to the Presidents' Day holiday in the U.S.. Brent futures also settled earlier than usual because of the holiday. Brent futures gained 9 cents to settle at $83.56 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for March delivery, which will not have a settlement today and expires on Tuesday, rose 30 cents to $79.49 a barrel by 1:43 p.m. ET (1843 GMT). The WTI contract for April delivery was down 11 cents to $78.35 a barrel. Both Brent and WTI futures last week gained about 1.5 per cent and 3 per cent respectively, reflecting the increasing risk of the Middle East conflict widening. The conflict in the Middle East continued over the weekend as Israeli raids put the Gaza Strip's second-largest hospital out of service. On Saturday Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi fighters claimed responsibility for an attack on an India-bound oil tanker. The U.S. has proposed the United Nations Security Council oppose Israel's Rafah assault and back a temporary Gaza ceasefire, according to draft text seen by Reuters. Capping oil's gains were slowing demand forecasts from the International Energy Agency and a bigger than expected increase to U.S. producer prices in January, amplifying inflation concerns and lifting the dollar. The dollar index, which tracks the currency against six peers, has gained for five straight weeks and edged slightly higher on Monday. A stronger greenback makes dollar-denominated oil less attractive to investors holding other currencies, denting demand. "Oil has been quite choppy in recent weeks, partly because of the dollar strength," said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index. "The impact of the dollar has been offsetting supportive measures such as the Middle East situation, OPEC's ongoing intervention and hopes economic conditions in China will improve in the coming quarters," Razaqzada said. Demand jitters were magnified on Friday when U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers signalled the need for "patience" over expectations of cuts to interest rates. Markets are also awaiting indications of the direction of demand from China after it returns from a week-long Lunar New Year holiday.
The Market Weighed an Uncertain Outlook For Global Demand Against the Risk Premium From the Continuing Israeli-Hamas Conflict - The March WTI contract posted an outside trading day on Tuesday morning, ahead of its expiration at the close, as the market weighed an uncertain outlook for global demand against the risk premium from the continuing Israeli-Hamas conflict. During Monday’s shortened trading session in observance of the Presidents’ Day holiday, the market rallied to a high of $79.75 amid the ongoing Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions. Iran-aligned Houthis continued their attacks on shipping lanes in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait, with at least four more vessels hit by drone and missile strikes since Friday. The market then traded mostly sideways in overnight trading following the holiday before it breached its previous high and posted a high of $79.80. However, the market erased its gains and traded to $78.32 on demand concerns. The March WTI contract later retraced some of its losses before it once again sold off to a low of $77.67 ahead of its expiration at the close. The expired WTI contract settled down $1.01 at $78.18 while the April WTI contract settled down $1.42 at $77.04. The product markets ended the session lower, with the heating oil market settling down 7.51 cents at $2.7315 and the RB market settling down 5.86 cents at $2.2774. At least two air strikes hit an area near the coastal Lebanese town of Ghaziyeh on Monday, after the Israeli military said it had struck weapons depots near the port city of Sidon. Lebanese state media said the strikes were Israeli and that a car had been hit. Lebanese security sources said the air strikes hit factories and warehouses in an industrial area south of Sidon but it was unclear what was targeted. One source said at least 14 people had been hurt, most of them Syrian workers. Israeli's chief military spokesperson said the air strikes on weapons depots near Sidon were carried out in response to a drone launched into Israel by the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. Sources said the Greek-flagged bulker Sea Champion arrived in the southern Yemeni port of Aden on Tuesday after being attacked in the Red Sea in what appeared to have been a mistaken missile strike by the Houthi militia. Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister, Alexander Novak, said Russia intends to fulfil its OPEC+ quota in February despite a decline in oil refining. Russia’s Energy Minister, Nikolai Shulginov, said Russia plans to produce about 523 million metric tons of oil and condensate in 2024. Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister, Alexander Novak, said Russia produced 24 million metric tons of oil offshore in 2023. A union official said Nigeria's fuel tanker drivers began a strike on Monday over increasing operational costs due to the recent second devaluation of the naira currency within a year and over the state of the country's roads. IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in 1.8 million bpd of capacity in the week ending February 23rd, increasing available refining capacity by 500,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 1.2 million bpd in the week ending March 1st.
Oil Futures Slide 1% as Traders Gauge Mixed Demand Signals -- New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) oil futures and Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange accelerated losses in market-on-close trade Tuesday. The step lower in price was exacerbated by the expiration of the March West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract as lingering concerns over Chinese and U.S. economic growth outweighed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that risk disrupting oil flows through the Red Sea transit corridor. NYMEX March WTI contract expired $1.01 a barrel (bbl) lower this afternoon at $78.18 bbl after touching a 14-week high of $79.80 bbl on the spot continuous chart in early trading. The new front-month April WTI futures contract narrowed its discount against the expired contract to $1.14 bbl on the session with WTI in a backwardated market structure. ICE April Brent futures fell a steeper $1.22 to settle at $82.34 bbl. NYMEX March RBOB futures declined $0.0586 gallon to settle the session at $2.2774 gallon, while NYMEX March ULSD futures dropped back $0.0751 to $2.7315 gallon. The oil complex kicked off the holiday-shortened week with a modest selloff as traders parsed through conflicting demand figures out of major global economies. In China, the Lunar New Year holidays saw a large spike in domestic travel and spending that exceeded its pre-pandemic trend for the first time since 2020. Some 474 million trips were made in China during the Lunar New Year festival Feb. 10-17. That's up 19% from the comparable period in 2019, according to data from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism. The fresh data might signal a rebound in Chinese fuel consumption for this year. Meanwhile, China's central bank announced on Tuesday that it would cut its five-year loan prime rate in a bid to revive a challenged property sector that has so far weighed heavily on the growth outlook. Domestically, investors continued to digest mixed macroeconomic data for January, showing inflation unexpectedly accelerated on both consumer and producer levels as retail sales dropped sharply. U.S. retail sales fell a seasonally adjusted 0.8% in January from a month earlier following a strong rebound during holiday shopping in December, which was revised to a 0.4% gain. Although January could often be a volatile month for consumer spending due to seasonal adjustments, the new data raises the possibility that consumer spending in the U.S. has not been as strong as many have suggested. As of Tuesday afternoon, most investors still expect the Federal Open Market Committee to make a 25-point cut in the federal funds rate at its June meeting, pushing back expectations for an earlier cut in the overnight bank borrowing rate. The U.S. dollar, however, continued lower into the new trading week after testing a three-month high 104.875 on Feb. 14. The U.S. dollar index weakened 0.2% against a basket of foreign currencies with a 103.978 settlement. On the geopolitical front, the Iran-backed Houthis militia over the weekend carried out a series of drone and missile strikes on commercial vessels passing through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, including an attack on an oil tanker carrying Russian crude to India. The tanker Pollux departed the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk on Jan. 24 and was scheduled to unload Urals grade crude at the Indian port of Pradip on Feb. 28. According to U.K. Maritime Trade Operations, the vessel was able to divert an attack and continued its route to eastern India but stopped transmitting a signal likely due to heightened safety risk. This marked the second attack by the Houthis on a Russian oil tanker in the Red Sea transit corridor three weeks after the first incident took place on Jan. 12. So far, there have been no signs of Russia rerouting oil cargoes heading to Asia around the Cape of Good Hope, which would have increased the transit time by weeks and sharply raise costs for Indian and Chinese refineries. According to tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, eight out of 10 tankers passing through Bab El-Mandeb Strait carry Russian oil. Continued attacks might change the risk profile of the Red Sea transit corridor and force broader divergence for companies to ship around Africa, pushing energy costs higher and stoking inflation.
WTI Futures Advance Ahead of Inventory Data as USD Softens -- While the Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel (ULSD) contract was an outlier, oil futures nearest delivery on reversed higher during the afternoon session Wednesday as investors parsed through minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) Jan. 30-31 meeting for additional clues on the near-term path for monetary policy. The minutes revealed most central bank officials wanted more evidence that inflation was moving sustainably lower toward their 2% target before pivoting towards a rate-cutting cycle. At the meeting, FOMC decided to leave the federal funds rate unchanged in a 5.25% to 5.5% target range but signaled they could soon start discussions on when the timing would be appropriate to cut the key interest rate. "Most participants noted the risks of moving too quickly to ease the stance of policy," according to the minutes. As an upside risk to both inflation and economic activity, participants noted momentum in aggregate demand may be stronger than currently assessed, especially considering surprisingly resilient consumer spending last year. Since the end of January, investors grew increasingly skeptical over the early start of the rate-cutting cycle and bets for a March rate cut all but dissipated in favor of a June move. A pair of hotter-than-expected inflation reports have since unsettled the markets, showing prices paid on consumer and producer levels unexpectedly accelerated at the start of the year. The core Consumer Price Index, which excludes the volatile prices of food and energy, rose at a faster-than-expected 0.4% last month, bringing the annual rate of inflation to 3.9%, well above the Fed's 2% target. Producer-level inflation data on Friday similarly topped expectations. At last look, most investors still expect FOMC to make a 25-point cut in the federal funds rate at its June meeting, pushing back expectations for an earlier cut in the overnight bank borrowing rate, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Wednesday afternoon, oil traders also positioned ahead of the release of weekly inventory data in the United States, starting with the private survey from the American Petroleum Institute this afternoon, followed by the official report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration Thursday morning. Consensus of analysts and traders surveyed by the Wall Street Journal reveal commercial crude oil stockpiles likely increased 3.2 million barrels (bbl) during the week ended Feb. 16 following an outsized 12 million bbl build reported in the prior week. Lending some price support for the WTI contract, the U.S. dollar index softened against a basket of foreign currencies to settle at 103.912. The international crude benchmark ICE April Brent futures contract settled above $83 bbl, advancing $0.69 bbl to $83.03 bbl on the session. NYMEX March RBOB futures added a modest $0.0086 to $2.2860 gallon, while NYMEX March ULSD futures eroded $0.0263 to $2.7052 gallon.
Oil rises 1% on signs of tightening supplies (Reuters) - Oil prices rose 1% on Wednesday as geopolitical tensions raged on in the Middle East and traders assessed signs of near-term supply tightness. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) rose 87 cents, or 1.1%, to settle at $77.91 a barrel, while Brent crude rose 69 cents, or 0.8%, to $83.03 a barrel. Oil contracts tied to near-term deliveries have been trading at their steepest premium to later-dated contracts in multiple months, a market structure known as backwardation and considered a sign of a tightly supplied market. Timespreads are showing markets tightening, as crude stocks declined in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp trading hub while product stocks slid in Fujairah last week. Also supporting the market, U.S. refineries are showing signs of returning from maintenance after slumping to their lowest operating rates since December 2022, spurring builds in crude stockpiles. "Recent refinery outages led to some crude oil builds across the globe but these could be coming back online, which will put pressure on crack spreads and could support more crude usage," Analysts expect U.S. refinery runs to have risen by 0.9 percentage point last week from 80.6% of total capacity in the previous week, according to a Reuters poll. U.S. crude stocks likely rose last week by nearly 4 million barrels last week, the poll showed. Figures from the American Petroleum Institute showed a larger 7.17 million barrel build in U.S. crude stocks, market sources said. Official data from the Energy Information Administration is due at 11 a.m. ET on Thursday, delayed a day by Monday's U.S. holiday. Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab strait have continued to stoke concerns over freight flows through the critical waterway. Drone and missile strikes have hit at least four vessels since last Friday. The U.S. Federal Reserve is concerned about cutting rates too soon, minutes of its January policy meeting showed. Traders of U.S. short-term interest-rate futures stuck to bets the U.S. Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates no earlier than June. Concerns that rate cuts by the Fed could take longer than thought have been weighing on the outlook for oil demand. U.S. inflation data last week pushed back expectations for an imminent start to the Fed's easing cycle.
WTI Extends Gains After Big Product Draw, Smaller Crude Build - Oil prices dumped and pumped overnight but are holding gains for now ahead of the official inventory data as traders continue to weigh tightening physical supplies (Brent’s prompt spread strengthening to 95 cents in backwardation, hovering at three month highs) against pressure from higher for longer rates (weighing on the demand side). “Crude oil continues to build a floor above $75 in WTI and $80 in Brent, but for now upside remains curbed,” “the dollar is heading for its first weekly loss this year, potentially adding some additional support to crude and other commodities.” Additionally, the ongoing tensions in the middle east are supporting prices.The “oil price is expected to continue to be range-bound short term despite escalating tensions in the Middle East,” “Continued strong non-OPEC production data, from Norway and Canada this week, combined with a soft global economic outlook counter the effect of higher Middle East tensions.”After last week's huge surprise crude build (and product draws) this week was expected to see more of the same, and API reported a sizable build... API
- Crude +7.17mm (+3.2mm exp)
- Cushing +668k
- Gasoline +415k (-2.1mm exp)
- Distillates -2.91mm (-1.4mm exp)
DOE
- Crude +3.5mm (+3.2mm exp)
- Cushing +741k
- Gasoline -293k (-2.1mm exp)
- Distillates -4.01mm (-1.4mm exp) - biggest draw since May 2023
The official data reported a smaller crude build than API reported but we also saw the biggest distillates draw since May 2023, (and small gasoline draw). The Biden admin added to the SPR for the 10th straight week (+748k barrels)...
The Market Continued to Trend Higher on News of a Missile Attack on a Cargo Ship - The oil market rallied higher on Thursday on continued tensions in the Middle East. In overnight trading, the market continued to trend higher on news of a missile attack on a cargo ship off the southern coast of Yemen that prompted U.S.-led naval forces to respond. The market traded to $78.42 before it retraced some of its gains and posted a low of $77.23 ahead of the release of the EIA’s weekly petroleum stocks report later in the morning. However, the market bounced off its low and retraced some of its losses ahead of the EIA inventory report. Despite the report showing a build of over 3.5 million barrels in crude stocks, the market continued to trend higher as the leader of the Houthis said the group would escalate its attacks on ships in the Red Sea and other waters. The market extended its gains to over $1 as it posted a high of $78.92 in afternoon trading. The crude market later gave up some of its gains ahead of the close, with the April contract settling up 70 cents at $78.61. The April Brent contract settled up 64 cents at $83.67. The product markets settled higher, with the heating oil market settling up 4.68 cents at $2.7520 and the RB market settling up 4.87 cents at $2.3347. British maritime agencies reported that a cargo ship was set on fire off the southern coast of Yemen after being struck in a missile attack on Thursday that has prompted U.S.-led naval forces to respond. According to maritime security firm Ambrey and ship tracking data, the UK-owned, Palau-flagged ship was en route to Egypt from Thailand. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency said U.S.-led coalition forces are responding to the incident, which involved two missiles being fired at the ship some 70 nautical miles southeast of Aden, Yemen.The leader of Yemen’s Houthis, Abdulmalik al-Houthi, said the group will escalate their attacks on ships in the Red Sea and other waters and has introduced “submarine weapons” in continued solidarity with Palestinians in the Gaza war. Earlier, Yemen’s Houthis sent shippers and insurers formal notice of what they termed a ban on vessels linked to Israel, the U.S. and Britain from sailing in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and Arabian Sea.Standard Chartered Plc in a research note to clients said that “a Brent price above $90 would more adequately reflect current fundamentals and risks” and the bank sees supply deficits averaging about 1.5 million b/d in February and March.The Biden administration approved a request from Midwestern governors allowing expanded sales of gasoline with higher blends of ethanol in their states, starting in 2025, a year later than the proposed start date. The U.S. government currently restricts sales of E15 gasoline or gasoline with 15% ethanol, in summer months due to environmental concerns over smog, though the biofuel industry says those concerns are unfounded. The governors of Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin made the request for year-round E15 sales in 2022, saying the move could help them lower pump prices by increasing fuel volumes. However, some oil refiners have argued that allowing E15 in select states as opposed to nationwide could prompt localized fuel price spikes and supply issues.
Oil Gains Despite Crude Build, Refinery Rate at 10-Month Low - Oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange shifted higher post-inventory trade Thursday after federal data confirmed U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased for the fourth straight week through Feb. 16 as refiners struggled to raise run rates amid heavy seasonal maintenance and unplanned outages. U.S. refinery run rate averaged 80.6% of capacity last week, a nearly 10-month low, for a second week with PADD 1 East Coast operators reducing utilization 1.8% to 79.7% and PADD 3 Gulf Coast refiners continuing to operate at a reduced 79.8% capacity. Nationwide, refinery crude inputs averaged 14.6 million barrels per day (bpd) during the week ended Feb. 16, 436,000 bpd below the 2023 input rate. U.S. crude production held at a record-high 13.3 million bpd for the third straight week. As a result, commercial crude oil inventories in the United States increased 3.5 million bbl in the reviewed week, slightly above calls for a 3.2 million bbl build. In refined fuel complex, distillate inventories increased 4 million bbl during the week ended Feb. 16 to 121.7 million bbl, roughly 10% below the five-year average. Implied demand for middle distillates jumped 416,000 bpd from a depressed level of 3.514 million bpd. Meanwhile, gasoline supplied to the U.S. market, a measure of demand, edged up a modest 32,000 bpd to 8.2 million bpd. Gasoline stockpiles dipped 292,000 bbl in the reviewed week to 247.3 million bbl. Near noon, April West Texas Intermediate futures advanced $0.89 bbl to $78.80 bbl, and March ULSD futures gained $0.0316 to $2.7362 gallon. Front-month RBOB futures advanced $0.0102 to $2.2962 per gallon.
Oil settles higher as pressure mounts in the Middle East (Reuters) - Oil futures settled higher on Thursday as hostilities continued in the Red Sea with Iran-aligned Houthis stepping up attacks near Yemen, but a large build in U.S. crude inventories weighed on gains. Brent crude futures settled higher, up 64 cents or 0.77% at $83.67 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled higher, up 70 cents or 0.9% at $78.61 a barrel. Israel's Army Radio reported on Thursday that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's war cabinet has approved sending negotiators to Gaza for truce talks taking place in Paris as pressure mounts in the Middle East. Meanwhile, Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis will escalate their attacks on ships in the Red Sea and other waters and have introduced "submarine weapons," the group's leader said on Thursday, as it keeps up attacks on shipping to show support for Palestinians in the Gaza war. "The Red Sea situation continues to ferment and it is starting to register more with the market that this is an issue that is not going away," "Europe is bearing the brunt in terms of supply - but European supply problems become U.S. supply problems because that will put a call on US gasoline and diesel", On Thursday, the premium for front-month WTI crude futures to the second month was up to 75 cents per barrel. That spread has widened in recent sessions, and on Tuesday touched $1.95 per barrel ahead of the March contract's expiry. Market players are likely pricing in a potential disruption to supply in the near future, with the front-month contract's premium over the second widening, which "indicates a tightening market”. Still, crude gains were capped on Thursday by a build in U.S. oil inventories due to refinery maintenance and outages. U.S. crude inventories rose by 3.5 million barrels to 442.9 million barrels in the week ending Feb. 16, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Thursday, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 3.9 million-barrel rise. U.S. crude inventories have climbed amid outages at large refineries that have left utilization rates at the lowest level in two years, though the plants are soon to resume output. Refinery utilization rates were unchanged last week, at 80.6%, according to EIA data on Thursday, compared with analysts' expectations of an uptick to 81.5%, according to a Reuters poll. BP's 435,000 barrel-per-day (bpd) Whiting refinery in Indiana, the largest in the U.S. Midwest, will return to full production in March, according to people familiar with plant operations, after a power outage from Feb. 1. TotalEnergies' 238,000-bpd refinery in Port Arthur, Texas, is also working to complete a restart, though it is still operating minimally following a weather-related power outage. The outages have drawn down distillate inventories, which include diesel and heating oil. Those stockpiles were down by 4 million barrels in the week to 121.7 million barrels, versus expectations for a 1.7 million-barrel drop, the EIA data showed.
Crudes Fall 2% on Gaza Peace Talks; Oil Posts Weekly Losses -- Both crude benchmarks fell more than 2% on Friday and registered their first weekly losses of February, pressured by growing optimism that the beginning of Gaza peace talks today in Paris could deliver a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas in a move that would ease the geopolitical temperature in the Middle East region. Media airways on Friday were hit with reports suggesting high-ranking officials from Israel, United States, Qatar and Egypt arrived today in Paris to broker a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. Analysts say the talks appear to be the most serious push in weeks to halt hostilities in Gaza. Although no physical oil supplies have been disrupted, the lingering threat of the Gaza war spilling into a broader regional conflict has kept the oil market on edge. Just this week, Iran-aligned Houthis militia vowed to step up attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea region, threatening to use new "submarine weapons." Houthi militants have launched over a dozen drones and missile strikes in the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the Gulf of Aden since early November, forcing ships to go around the Cape of Good Hope, Africa's southern tip. So far, there have been no signs of Russia rerouting oil cargoes heading to Asia around Africa, which would increase the transit time by weeks and sharply raise costs for Indian and Chinese refineries. According to tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, eight out of 10 tankers passing through the Bab El-Mandeb Strait are carrying Russian oil. Friday's move lower also follows Thursday's inventory report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showing commercial oil supplies increased for the fourth consecutive week through Feb. 16 as domestic refineries struggle to raise runs. A combination of heavy seasonal maintenance and unplanned downtime pressed the U.S. refinery run rate to near a 10-month low 80.6% of capacity last week. Nationwide, U.S. refineries processed 14.6 million barrels per day (bpd) last week, which was 436,000 bpd or 2.6% below the 2023 processing rate. Offsetting weakness in domestic refinery runs, U.S. crude exports surged to nearly 5 million bpd last week, up 653,000 bpd, showed EIA data. On a four-week basis, exports broke above 4.2 million bpd, nearly 700,000 bpd higher year-on-year. Strength in crude exports helped to limit builds in domestic crude stocks. Last week, The International Energy Agency (IEA) released a rather bearish market outlook for 2024, forecasting a larger supply surplus for the year as growth in non-OPEC crude supply outpaces lackluster demand growth. Paris-based agency estimates world oil consumption to grow annually by 1.2 million bpd this year, down from a 2.3 million bpd annual growth rate in 2023. "Global oil demand growth is losing momentum, with annual gains easing from 2.8 mb/d in 3Q23 to 1.8mb/d in 4Q23," said IEA in its monthly Oil Market Report. "A sharp drop in China underpinned an 830 kb/d decline in global oil demand to 102.1 mb/d in the last quarter of 2023." On the session, NYMEX West Texas Intermediate contract for April delivery slipped below the 200-day moving average of $77.60 barrell(bbl) to settle at $76.49 bbl, down $2.12. Front-month Brent futures declined $2.05 to $81.62 bbl. NYMEX March RBOB futures dropped back $0.0580 to $2.2767 gallon, while NYMEX March ULSD futures moved $0.0623 lower to finish the session at $2.6897 gallon.
Oil ends lower, posts weekly decline as US rate cut hopes dim (Reuters) - Oil prices fell nearly 3% lower on Friday and posted a weekly decline after a U.S. central bank policymaker indicated interest rate cuts could be delayed by at least two more months. Brent crude futures settled down $2.05, or 2.5%, at $81.62 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) were down $2.12, or 2.7%, to $76.49. For the week, Brent declined about 2% and WTI fell more than 3%. However, indications of healthy fuel demand and supply concerns could revive prices in the coming days. Federal Reserve policymakers should delay U.S. interest rate cuts by at least another couple of months, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday, which could slow economic growth and curb oil demand. The Fed has held its policy rate steady in a 5.25% to 5.5% range since last July. Minutes of its meeting last month show most central bankers were worried about moving too quickly to ease policy. "The entire energy complex is reacting, because if inflation begins to come back it will slow demand for energy products," "That is not something the market wants to digest right now, especially as it is trying to figure out a direction," he added. Some analysts, however, say demand has remained largely healthy despite the impact of high interest rates, including in the United States. JPMorgan's demand indicators are showing oil demand rising by 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) month over month through Feb. 21, its analysts said in a note. "This compares to a 1.6 million bpd increase observed during the prior week, likely benefiting from increased travel demand in China and Europe," the analysts said. Meanwhile, Gaza truce talks were underway in Paris in what appears to be the most serious push in weeks to halt the conflict in Palestine and see Israeli and foreign hostages released. Ceasefire talks could prompt the market to anticipate an easing of geopolitical tensions, Still, tensions in the Red Sea continued, with attacks by Iran-backed Houthi militants near Yemen on Thursday forcing more shipping vessels to divert from the trade route. U.S. energy firms this week added the most oil rigs since November, and the most in a month since October 2022, energy services firm Baker Hughes said. The oil rig count, an early indicator of future output, rose by six to 503 this week, and increased by four this month.
Iran accuses Israel of sabotage attack after explosions strike a natural gas pipeline (AP) — An Israeli sabotage attack on an Iranian natural gas pipeline last week caused multiple explosions on the line, Iran's oil minister alleged Wednesday, further raising tensions between the regional archenemies against the backdrop of Israel's war on Hamas in the Gaza Strip. The accusations by Iran’s Oil Minister Javad Owji come as Israel has been blamed for a series of attacks targeting Tehran's nuclear program. The “explosion of the gas pipeline was an Israeli plot,” Owji said, according to Iran's state-run IRNA news agency. “The enemy intended to disturb gas service in the provinces and put people’s gas distribution at risk.” “The evil action and plot by the enemy was properly managed,” Owji added, without providing any evidence to support his claims. Israel has not acknowledged carrying out the attack, though it rarely claims its espionage missions abroad. The office of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a longtime foe of Iran, did not respond to a request for comment. The Feb. 14 blastshit a natural gas pipeline running from Iran's western Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province up north to cities on the Caspian Sea. The roughly 1,270-kilometer (790-mile) -long pipeline begins in Asaluyeh, a hub for Iran's offshore South Pars gas field. Owji earlier compared the attack to a series of mysterious and unclaimed assaults on gas pipelines in 2011 — including around the anniversary of Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution. Tehran marked the 45th anniversary of the revolution just days before the pipeline blasts. Israel has carried out attacks in Iran that have predominantly targeted its nuclear program. Last week, the head of the United Nations' nuclear watchdog warned that Iran is "not entirely transparent" regarding its atomic program, particularly after an official who once led Tehran's program announced the Islamic Republic has all the pieces for a weapon "in our hands." Tensions over Iran's nuclear program comes as groups that Tehran is arming in the region — Lebanon's militant group Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthi rebels — have launched attacks targeting Israel over the war in Gaza. The Houthis continue to attack commercial shipping in the region, sparking repeated airstrikes from the United States and the United Kingdom. Despite a month of U.S.-led airstrikes, the Houthi rebels remain capable of launching significant attacks. This week, they seriously damaged a ship in a crucial strait and downed an American drone worth tens of millions of dollars. On Wednesday, ships in the Red Sea off the Houthi-held port city of Hodeida in Yemen reported seeing an explosion, though all vessels in the area were said to be safe, according to the British military's United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations centers. The UKMTO earlier reported heavy drone activity in the area. The U.S. military's Central Command acknowledged shooting down a Houthi bomb-carrying drone Wednesday during that time. U.S. airstrikes separately targeted seven mobile anti-ship cruise missiles and one mobile anti-ship ballistic missile prepared to target ships in the Red Sea, Central Command said. The U.S. State Department criticized “the reckless and indiscriminate attacks on civilian cargo ships by the Houthis” that have delayed humanitarian aid including food and medicine bound for Ethiopia, Sudan and Yemen. That includes the Sea Champion, a ship carrying corn and other aid to both Aden and Hodeida. “Contrary to what the Houthis may attempt to claim, their attacks do nothing to help the Palestinians,” State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said in a statement. “Their actions are not bringing a single morsel of assistance or food to the Palestinian people.” Meanwhile, a suspected Israeli strike killed two people a neighborhood in Syria's capital, Damascus, on Wednesday, an area where other likely Israeli strikes have targeted members of Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard.
Iraqi Militias Stopped Attacks on US Forces at Request of Iranian General - A visit from an Iranian general to the Shia militias in Iraq led to a pause in attacks on US forces, Reuters reported on Sunday, citing Iranian and Iraqi sources.Brig. Gen. Esmail Qaani made the trip to Iraq on January 29, one day after three US troops were killed in a drone attack on a base in Jordan near the Syrian border. He warned that the death of the American soldiers would likely provoke a heavy American response and said the groups should lie low to avoid being targeted.A day after the visit, Kataib Hezbollah, one of the most powerful Shia militias in Iraq, announced it was suspending attacks on US troops. In its statement, Kataib Hezbollah said Iran “repeatedly declared opposition to our escalation against the US forces in Iraq and Syria.”Initially, one faction did not agree to the Iranian request, and there were a few more attacks on US bases, but there have been none since February 4, the day six US-backed Kurdish fighters were killed in a drone attack on a US facility in Syria.The lull in attacks is significant since US troops in Iraq and Syria have come under attack over 170 times due to US support for the Israeli slaughter in Gaza. The attacks started in October and only paused briefly in November during the seven-day truce in Gaza that was part of the Israel-Hamas hostage deal.The US launched a series of airstrikes on Iraq and Syria on February 2 that killed about 40 people, mostly members of Iraq’s militias. The US also killed a senior Kataib Hezbollah commander in a drone strike in Baghdad on February 7, but there was no response.The lack of response could also be attributed to the Iraqi government stepping up its efforts to get the US to withdraw from Iraq. The US airstrikes have infuriated Baghdad since Kataib Hezbollah and other Shia militias are part of Iraq’s security forces under the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a coalition formed in 2014 to fight ISIS.The US and Iraq have restarted talks on the future of the US military presence. An Iraqi military spokesman said, “Based on these meetings, a timetable will be formulated for a deliberate and gradual reduction leading to the end of the mission.” Iraqi prime ministers have been under pressure to expel US troops since January 2020, when Qaani’s predecessor, Gen. Qasem Soleimani, and PMF leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, were killed by a US drone strike. The Iraqi parliament voted unanimously for an end to the US military presence, but the US refused to leave.
Pakistan Mulls Completion Of Iran Gas Pipeline Stalled By US Sanctions - Pakistan is mulling over completing a much-delayed pipeline project with Iran, which has been stalled for years and has failed to move forward due to US sanctions. Islamabad is considering finalizing the first phase of the 80-kilometer pipeline, according to Pakistani news site The Nation. "Islamabad is contemplating to kick-off construction work on the 80 kilometers portion of Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project… to escape a potential penalty of $18 billion," the report said. "Pakistan will submit an application to seek a waiver of US sanctions for the IP project. Initially, it has been decided that in the first phase of the IP project, work on the 80 km portion from the Pak–Iran border to Gwadar will be started," a source in the Pakistani energy ministry told the outlet. The project, which aims to connect the Pakistani port city of Gwadar to the Iranian border, was launched in 2013. It required Pakistan to complete the construction of its end of the pipeline by 2014. Iran said it has already completed its side of the pipeline and has invested $2 billion in the project. Pakistani officials warned in May last year that Islamabad could face an $18 billion fine if it fails to complete the Iran–Pakistan Gas Pipeline project. Islamabad suspended its participation in the project a few months later, in August, due to the threat of US economic sanctions. At the time, Pakistani Minister of State for Petroleum, Dr Musadik Malik, said in written testimony to the country’s National Assembly that Pakistan "issued a Force Majeure and Excusing Event notice to Iran under the Gas Sales and Purchase Agreement (GSPA), which resultantly suspends Pakistan’s obligations under the GSPA.""The matter will be finally settled through arbitration, should Iran take this matter to arbitration," the minister said back in August. "The exact amount of penalty, if any, is subject to the outcome of the arbitration to be determined by the arbitrators."
Iranian gas pipelines damaged in "terrorist blasts" resume operation (Xinhua) -- Iran's National Iranian Gas Company (NIGC) announced on Saturday the nationwide natural gas transfer pipelines that were damaged in recent "terrorist blasts" have been repaired and become operational. "The repair work of those sections of the nationwide gas transfer pipelines in Khorrambid County (in Fars Province) and Borujen County (in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province), which had been damaged in an act of terror on Wednesday, has been completed and the pipelines have become operational," NIGC's Dispatching Director Saeid Aqli said in a statement published on the NIGC's website. The blasts occurred at around 01:00 a.m. on Wednesday local time (2130 GMT Tuesday) at two separate points along the national natural gas transfer network in the two provinces, Iranian Oil Minister Javad Owji was quoted by state-run Shana News Agency as saying on the day of the incident. Owji said the explosions were "acts of terror" aimed at disrupting gas supplies to major provinces. No group has yet claimed responsibility for the explosions.
Iran Partakes in Naval Drill in India - (Tasnim) – The Iranian Navy has deployed its Dena destroyer to India for a large-scale multilateral exercise. The deputy commander of the Iranian Navy’s southern fleet said the Dena destroyer has taken part in the naval war game in line with the “very good and growing relations” with the Indian Navy. Admiral Jalil Moqaddam said Iran and India, with their rich civilizational background, are two naval powers of the region. He added that naval cooperation between Iran and India would help ensure maritime security and serve the interests of the region. The Indian Navy’s largest-ever multilateral naval exercise, Milan 2024, is underway in the eastern port city of Visakhapatnam on the coasts of the Bay of Bengal. Warships from the navies of 50 countries have participated in the harbor phase of the drill. During the sea phase from February 24 to 27, the participating navies will conduct advanced air defense, anti-submarine, and anti-surface warfare drills, according to Indian Times.
Hungarian Foreign Minister in Iran for Economic, Political Talks - (Tasnim) – Minister of Foreign Affairs of Hungary Peter Szijjarto has traveled to Iran for talks on closer cooperation between the two countries. During the top Hungarian diplomat’s stay in Tehran, a meeting of the Iran-Hungary Economic Cooperation Commission was held to weigh plans for the expansion of relations between the two states in various fields such as trade, investment, industry, agriculture, energy, transportation, science and technology. According to Iran’s ambassador in Budapest, private companies from the two countries have actively taken part in the meeting. Szijjarto is going to hold talks with his Iranian counterpart Hossein Amirabdollahian on Thursday evening.
Repetition of Baseless Claims against Iran Becomes Tedious: Iran's FM - (Tasnim) - During a joint press conference with his Hungarian counterpart, Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, expressed his view that the repetition of baseless claims against Iran has become tedious. Amirabdollahian and Péter Szijjártó, the Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade, held discussions at the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs building on Thursday. After the meeting, the ministers held a joint press conference where they shared their thoughts on the discussions. Amirabdollahian stated that “productive talks” have been held with the Hungarian minister and various plans were discussed. "Today, we witnessed the holding of the Joint Economic Cooperation Commission of the two countries. We also had important discussions on topics of interest…, all dimensions of cooperation, including agriculture, water management, industry, energy, and student exchange, were discussed," Amirabdollahian added. He continued that the relationship between the two countries is progressing, as shown by the signing of the Economic Commission Protocol and the Agricultural Cooperation Roadmap, adding, “We also addressed international issues, including the focus on Gaza and the rights of the Palestinian people. Despite differences in political solutions, we emphasize the need to uphold Palestinian rights.” Amirabdollahian also emphasized that the two diplomats had “frank discussions on Iran's support for Palestine,” adding that Hungary should use its capacities to stop the war and restore security. Condemning “baseless allegations against Iran” regarding the use of Iranian weapons by Russia, Amirabdollahian added that crisis in Ukraine were also discussed Amirabdollahian emphasized that Iran does not see war as a solution. “War is not a solution in Gaza. The joint efforts of the United States and England to expand the scope of war to other areas are wrong,” he said. Stressing that the Yemenis have their own independent positions, he added that the US must stop its hypocrisy. “They talk about reducing war [but they actually] mean to continue genocide in Gaza. American officials talk about peace must turn into a decisive decision," he concluded. On his part Szijjártó stated that he was here in Tehran to prevent conflicts from escalating in the region and to improve the situation in the Middle East. "The escalation of the situation in the region could threaten global security. Hungary respects Iran and next year we will celebrate the 100th anniversary of our relations. Our relationship is strong, with 2,000 Iranian citizens in Hungary. We are concerned about the Middle East war and want to prevent any further attacks. The global community must ensure that the situation does not escalate further. All parties must act responsibly. We welcome Iran's role in this regard." Regarding the situation in the region Szijjártó mentioned that he has recently been to Lebanon, adding that the Arab country “does not want the situation to escalate”. Regarding the Iranian nuclear agreement he added that implementing the agreement can improve global security. He also said that he asked his country to hold educational programs for Iran regarding the JCPOA.
US says it struck underwater Houthi drone as rebel group claims critical hit on British ship Houthi rebels in Yemen on Monday claimed they nearly sunk a British ship in the Gulf of Aden, one day after the U.S. carried out self-defense strikes that took out an underwater drone for the first time. A Houthi statement carried by pro-Iranian media channels said fighters carried out a “special military operation” that struck the British ship Rubymar with several missiles, including a severe hit that brought the vessel to a complete halt. “Due to the large damage the ship has sustained, it is now at risk of sinking in the Gulf of Aden,” the Houthis claimed in the statement, also saying they ensured the safety of the abandoning crew. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations confirmed an attack on a ship near Yemen on Sunday that forced the crew to abandon the vessel. The British organization also reported more attacks Monday on another ship, but the boat appears to be carrying on. The Associated Press reported the damaged ship at risk of sinking is a British-registered, Lebanese-operated cargo ship. The Houthis also claimed they downed a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone, which costs some $32 million to build. The Houthis shot down a U.S. Reaper drone in November. CENTCOM said Rubymar was hit around 10 p.m. local time on Sunday, forcing it to issue a distress call. Another merchant vessel, along with a warship involved with a U.S.-led coalition to defend ships against the Houthis, responded to the call and transported the crew of the Rubymar to a port. The Hill has reached out to U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) for comment on the Houthi claims. The attack on Rubymar comes after CENTCOM said targeted American strikes over the weekend hit three mobile anti-ship cruise missiles, one underwater drone and one surface drone in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen. CENTCOM said the underwater drone was the first launched by the Houthis since attacks began in late October.
Houthis Say They Shot Down US MQ-9 Reaper Drone - Yemen’s Houthis said on Monday that their forces downed an American MQ-9 Reaper Drone that was flying over Yemen. US officials have acknowledged that a US drone crashed and say they’re investigating the cause.“Yemeni air defenses were able to shoot down an American plane (MQ-9) with a suitable missile while it was carrying out hostile missions against our country on behalf of the Zionist entity,” Houthi military spokesman Yahya Sarea said in a statement, according to The New York Times.“Yemeni armed forces will not hesitate to take more military measures and carry out more qualitative operations against all hostile targets in defense of beloved Yemen,” Sarea added.The incident marks the second time a US MQ-9 Reaper drone was downed by the Houthis over Yemen since November.The Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, also said on Monday that they struck a British-owned cargo ship in the Gulf of Aden, which was confirmed by US Central Command.CENTCOM said two Houthi missiles were fired “toward MV Rubymar, a Belize-flagged, UK-owned bulk carrier. One of the missiles struck the vessel, causing damage.”The Houthis later said they sank the British ship, and CENTCOM said the crew was evacuated from the Rubymar. The Houthis also claimed they targeted two American ships, but that has not yet been confirmed by the US.The US has been bombing Houthi-controlled Yemen, where most of the country’s population lives, on a near-daily basis. The continued Houthi attacks demonstrate that the US strikes are not doing significant damage to Houthi capabilities and have only escalated the situation.The Houthis have been clear that the only way their o perations in the Red Sea will cease is if the US-backed Israeli onslaught in Gaza comes to an end.
Houthi Strikes Force Crew to Abandon Ship for First Time | Rigzone - The crew of a commercial ship in the Red Sea abandoned the vessel following a Houthi attack — the first such evacuation since the militant group began menacing trade in the vital waterway late last year. The strikes on the Rubymar, a relatively small cargo ship, were on the engine room and at the front of the vessel, a company official at GMZ Ship Management Co. in Lebanon said by email. There have been no reports of injuries to the crew, who are being taken to Djibouti, the official said. The UK Navy said the ship is continuing to receive military assistance. The ship-abandonment is a milestone in the violence that has swept through the Red Sea since November, when the Iran-backed Houthis escalated their attacks with a barrage of missiles and drone strikes on the merchant fleet. A tanker carrying Russian fuel was set ablaze in January. The Houthis say they are targeting ships with links to Israel, the US and UK — their response to the war in Gaza and western airstrikes that have sought to quell the attacks. However, the number of possible targets has been falling as ships avoid the waterway. The Rubymar’s registered owner is in Southampton, England, according to the Equasis international maritime database. Also on Monday, another ship reported a nearby explosion, but it continued to its next port of call. Maritime intelligence company Ambrey described the ship as a Greece-flagged bulk commodity carrier. A significant percentage of the world’s oil and gas carriers, bulk commodity ships and container vessels are now sailing thousands of miles around Africa, adding to voyage times and boosting costs to world shipping, in order to avoid the attacks. The European Union formally launched a defensive naval operation Monday aimed at protecting commercial vessels from Houthi attacks. The mission, commanded by Greece, will accompany some ships and protect them against attacks from the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden to the Persian Gulf. Over the weekend, the US said it conducted five self-defense strikes against the Houthis, including one against an underwater vessel. Central Command said it was the first observed deployment of subsea attack capability since the attacks began.
US Confirms the Houthis Struck Two US-Owned Cargo Ships - The US military on Tuesday said that Yemen’s Houthis struck two US cargo ships a day earlier, confirming a statement made by the Yemeni group on the attacks.US Central Command said the Houthis fired two missiles at the Sea Champion, a Greek-flagged, US-owned grain carrier, causing minor damage. The command said the ship could continue to its destination of Aden, Yemen.The Houthis also fired a drone at the Navis Fortuna, a Marshall Islands-flagged, US-owned bulk carrier. The attack also caused minor damage, and the command said the vessel was able to continue its voyage to Italy. CENTCOM also claimed that it struck a surface-to-air missile launcher in Yemen and a drone that was preparing to launch. The US has been bombing Yemen almost every day, but the strikes have done nothing to deter the Houthis. From Monday night into early Tuesday morning, CENTCOM said that US and allied warships downed ten Houthi drones. “Between 8 pm on Feb. 19 and 12:30 am on Feb. 20, US and coalition aircraft and warships shot down 10 OWA UAVs [one-way attack unmanned aerial vehicles] in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden,” the command said. Houthi military spokesman Yahya Sarea said Yemeni forces launched drones at US warships, likely referring to the incident reported by CENTOM. Sarea said the operations come “in support of the Palestinian people, who are still facing the Israeli aggression and siege, and in response to the US and British aggression on our country.” The Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, have made clear they will only stop their attacks on shipping once the Israeli onslaught in Gaza comes to an end. The US bombing campaign has only escalated the situation as the Houthis were not targeting American or British shipping before the US and UK launched the first round of strikes on Yemen on January 12.The US backed a Saudi/UAE-led coalition against the Houthis in a brutal war that killed 377,000 people between 2015 and 2022. During that time, the Houthis only became a more formidable fighting force and developed missile and drone technology that gave them the ability to hit Saudi oil infrastructure. A ceasefire between the Saudis and Houthis has held relatively well since April 2022, but new US sanctions are now blocking the implementation of a peace deal.
Yemen's Houthis Hit Another British-Owned Cargo Ship - The Houthis struck another British-owned cargo ship on Thursday as the US bombing campaign in Yemen is failing to deter Houthi attacks and has only escalated the situation in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.US Central Command said that two Houthi ballistic missiles fired into the Gulf of Aden “impacted the MV Islander, a Palau-flagged, UK-owned cargo carrier, causing one minor injury and damage.” CENTCOM said the ship was able to continue its voyage despite the damage. Earlier in the day, CENTCOM said US aircraft and an allied warship shot down six Houthi drones in the Red Sea. On Wednesday, the command said it launched four strikes against Houthi-controlled Yemen and claimed the bombing destroyed “seven mobile Houthi Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles and one mobile Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile launcher that were prepared to launch towards the Red Sea.” The Islander is the second British ship the Houthis successfully targeted this week. They also hit the Rubymar, a bulk carrier, causing significant enough damage for the crew to abandon the ship. The Houthis said the Rubymar sank, but pictures of the vessel surfaced on Thursday, showing it down by the stern but still afloat. However, the ship’s operator said it could still sink as it’s being towed to Djibouti.The Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, also struck two US-owned cargo ships this week, causing minor damage. The Houthis did not start targeting American and British commercial shipping until the US and the UK launched their first round of missile strikes on Yemen on January 12.President Biden previously acknowledged that the strikes against the Houthis were not working to stop the attacks, but he vowed they would continue anyway. The Houthis have been clear that they would only stop their Red Sea operations if the Israeli onslaught in Gaza comes to an end.The US backed a Saudi/UAE-led coalition against the Houthis in a brutal war that killed 377,000 people between 2015 and 2022. During that time, the Houthis only became a more formidable fighting force and developed missile and drone technology that gave them the ability to hit Saudi oil infrastructure. A ceasefire between the Saudis and Houthis has held relatively well since April 2022, but new US sanctions are now blocking the implementation of a peace deal.
Another UK Ship On Fire Near Yemen As Sea Becomes Littered With Disabled Tankers - The last several days have witnessed well over half a dozen attacks or attempted attacks by Houthis on foreign vessels and tankers in the Red Sea. For example the US military confirmed Tuesday that two US-owned tankers were struck the day prior. Such attacks are now coming several times a day. On Thursday the Pentagon said its coalition ships in the Red Sea intercepted six more drones over waters off Yemen. This came after another UK-owned ship was struck, and is reportedly burning and immobile some 70 nautical miles southeast of Aden.A new United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency alert said the British-owned, Palau-flagged ship was hit by two missiles while en route from Thailand to Egypt.Increasingly, waters off Yemen are being littered with disabled and sinking tankers, as the saga of the Belize-flagged, British-registered Rubymar has shown. Earlier in the week it was hit by Houthi fire and the crew abandoned ship. There are reports that the vessel's operators are currently trying to tow the ship to Djibouti, and that it remains partially below water, the engine room having suffered severe damage.BBC wrote of one image widely circulating that it is "said to be from Tuesday and shows a vessel still above water. It is down by the stern, but has not sunk. Although the ship's name is not visible, all of its characteristics match those of the Rubymar." Based on the ratcheting rate of these attacks, expect more such images of other ships to emerge in the coming weeks and months, as the war in Gaza rages on. Meanwhile, the Houthis have issued a new alert, formalizing a ban on all foreign vessels' passage (presumably excluding Russian, Chinese, and Iranian ships of course). According to the Thursday notification: The Houthis’ communication, the first to the shipping industry outlining a formalized ban, came in the form of two notices from the Houthis’ newly-dubbed Humanitarian Operations Coordination Center sent to shipping insurers and firms. Ships that are wholly or partially owned by Israeli individuals or entities and Israel-flagged vessels, or are owned by US or British individuals or entities, or sailing under their flags, are banned from the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and Arabian Sea, Thursday’s notices said. "The Humanitarian Operations Center was established in Sanaa to coordinate the safe and peaceful passage of ships and vessels that have no connection to Israel," a Houthi official told Reuters. According to the latest from the Houthi military spokesman Thursday: "In response to the US-UK aggression, the armed forces of Yemen carried out 3 operations"...
- The launching of a number of ballistic missiles and drones at various targets in Umm al-Rashrash (Eilat), south of occupied Palestine.
- The targeting of a British ship “ISLANDER” in the Gulf of Aden, using anti-ship missiles. The ship was directly hit, leading to a fire on board.
- The targeting of an American destroyer (warship) in the Red Sea using a number of kamikaze drones.
Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM has written in a new note, "If anything, Houthis attacks on cargo ships are intensifying in the Red Sea and around the Gulf of Aden." The US-led coalition named Operation Prosperity Guardian has not deterred these attack. If anything, they've only escalated.
Dryad Flags Reported Incidents of Vessels Being Targeted in Red Sea -- Over the last week, there have been five reported incidents of vessels being targeted while operating within the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, Dryad Global outlined in its latest Maritime Security Threat Advisory (MSTA), which was released late Tuesday. “Reporting on Thursday … 15 and Friday 16 indicate that, following a brief hiatus, the Houthis returned to targeting commercial vessels,” Dryad said in the MSTA, adding that the Pollux vessel “was targeted by three attempted drone strikes whilst transiting southbound within the Gulf of Aden”. “On Sunday the 18th the MV Rubymar was struck by a projectile thought to be an anti-ship missile, causing significant damage to the starboard side. Water ingresses caused the abandonment of the vessel. Twenty-four crew were rescued,” Dryad stated in the MSTA. Dryad noted in the MSTA that the vessel continues afloat but added that it remains unclear whether it can be towed. “Throughout the 19th February three incidents occurred involving vessels targeted. Notably the U.S. owned Sea Champion and latterly the U.S. owned Navis Fortuna were targeted by Houthi drones,” Dryad said in the MSTA. “Further north, off coast Jizan, Saudi Arabia, a vessel reported being pursued by a drone. The geographic spread of attacks is considerable highlighting the continued capability of Houthi rebels,” Dryad added. Dryad’s latest MSTA designates Yemen with a “critical” risk and impact rating and highlights several incidents in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. The only other countries with a critical rating in the MSTA are Ukraine and Syria. In a statement posted on its X page on Tuesday, U.S. Central Command (Centcom) noted that, on February 19, between 12.30pm and 1.50pm, “two anti-ship ballistic missiles were launched from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen toward M/V Sea Champion”. “Minor damage and no injuries were reported. The ship continued toward its scheduled destination to deliver grain to Aden, Yemen,” it added. “At 7.20pm, a one-way attack unmanned aerial vehicle struck the M/V Navis Fortuna, a Marshall Islands-flagged, U.S.-owned, bulk carrier causing minor damage and no injuries. The ship continued its voyage toward Italy,” it continued.
Israel Carries Out Strikes Near Major Lebanese City of Sidon - Israel has once again conducted two major airstrikes, now against the town of Ghaziyeh, near Lebanon’s third largest city of Sidon. The strike on Monday went much deeper into Lebanon than usual, about 40 miles.The Israeli military said this was retaliation for an explosive drone that hit near a community in Lower Galilee. They presented the attacks as hitting Hezbollah “terrorist infrastructure” and reported using artillery fire against other areas of Lebanon.The targeted buildings were termed in some Israeli reports as “weapons storage facilities,” although media reports from Lebanon dispute this. Lebanese sources referred to the Ghaziyeh sites as factories and quoted owners as denying any weapons were stored in these locations.Israel also earlier reported airstrikes against a building in the Ayta ash-Shab region of Lebanon at which a presumed terrorist was staying. Fighter jets were dispatched to hit the building early Monday following a Sunday sighting. The terrorist was not identified, nor is it clear whether he survived or not.There were definitely casualties in the factory airstrikes, however, as Lebanese media said fires ensuing from the airstrikes did “major destruction” to both sites, and that a number of wounded people were taken to the local hospital. All told, at least 14 people were reportedwounded. Seven of the wounded factory workers were said to be from Syria.While airstrikes this deep into Lebanon are unusual, the really unusual part is hitting so close to one of the nation’s major population centers, with reports saying this is the biggest strike near a population center since four months ago, when tit-for-tat strikes between Israel and Hezbollah began. This follows fairly substantial Israeli strikes last week, which killed at least 10 civilians according to reports. Hezbollah responded by retaliating against northern Israel in the tit-for-tat fashion that has brought events to the cusp of a full-scale Israeli invasion.
Gaza genocide death toll crosses 29,000 -- The official death toll of Israel’s genocide in Gaza has reached 29,000, Gaza’s health ministry said Monday, amid ongoing relentless bombing and mass starvation caused by Israel’s blockade of food, water, and medical care. In addition to the 29,092 people who have been killed, a further 7,000 have been missing for more than two weeks and presumed dead, bringing the actual death toll to 36,000. When the number of dead, missing, and wounded are added up, the figure comes to over 100,000, or four percent of the population of Gaza. 107 Palestinians were killed in Gaza between Sunday and Monday, and another 145 were injured. This massive death toll is only set to intensify with Israel’s looming assault on Rafah, where over one million people are sheltering. As the death toll soars, the conflict is only expanding in geographic scope, with Israeli warplanes carrying out two strikes inside the city of Sidon, Lebanon, killing 14 people. Virtually the entire population of Gaza faces severe hunger, UNICEF warned Monday, with children and pregnant women facing the greatest vulnerability. “The Gaza Strip is poised to witness an explosion in preventable child deaths which would compound the already unbearable level of child deaths in Gaza,” said Ted Chaiban, UNICEF Deputy Executive Director for Humanitarian Action and Supply Operations. “If the conflict doesn’t end now, children’s nutrition will continue to plummet, leading to preventable deaths or health issues which will affect the children of Gaza for the rest of their lives and have potential intergenerational consequences. In Northern Gaza, one in six children under the age of two faces acute malnutrition, warned the report. “Hungry, weakened, and deeply traumatized children are more likely to get sick... It’s dangerous, and tragic, and happening before our eyes,” warned Mike Ryan, head of the WHO’s Health Emergencies Programme. In the south, five percent of children under 2 years old are acutely malnourished, the report said. The UN report added that prior to the assault on Gaza, just 0.8 percent of children under 5 years of age were acutely malnourished. This figure has surged to 15.6 percent, pointing to what UNICEF said was an “unprecedented” increase in malnutrition. The report found that “90 percent of children under the age of 2 and 95 percent of pregnant and breastfeeding women face severe food poverty, meaning they have consumed two or less food groups in the previous day - and the food they do have access to is of the lowest nutritional value.” It added, “95 percent of households are limiting meals and portion sizes, with 64 percent of households eating only one meal a day.” The UN noted that, “On average, households surveyed had access to less than one liter of safe water per person per day. According to humanitarian standards, the minimum amount of safe water needed in an emergency is three liters per person per day, while the overall standard is 15 liters per person, which includes sufficient quantities for drinking, washing, and cooking.” A staggering 70 percent of children under 5 had suffered from diarrhea over the past two weeks, representing a 23-fold increase since before the start of the war. In a separate report, the UN reported that experts were “appalled by reported human rights violations against Palestinian women and girls.” The report found that “Palestinian women and girls have reportedly been arbitrarily executed in Gaza, often together with family members, including their children, according to information received.” It quoted UN experts as saying, “We are shocked by reports of the deliberate targeting and extrajudicial killing of Palestinian women and children in places where they sought refuge, or while fleeing. Some of them were reportedly holding white pieces of cloth when they were killed by the Israeli army or affiliated forces.”
Israeli Cabinet Unanimously Rejects 'International Diktats' on Palestinian State - Israel’s cabinet on Sunday unanimously approved a declaration rejecting “international diktats” on a future Palestinian state amid reports the US is preparing to unveil an outline for a potential peace deal that includes establishing a timeline for a two-state solution.“Israel utterly rejects international diktats regarding a permanent settlement with the Palestinians. A settlement, if it is to be reached, will come about solely through direct negotiations between the parties, without preconditions,” the declaration said, according to The Times of Israel.“Israel will continue to oppose unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state. Such recognition in the wake of the October 7th massacre would be a massive and unprecedented reward to terrorism and would foil any future peace settlement,” it added.US officials have previously portrayed opposition to a future Palestinian state as unique among Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and a handful of extremist settler Israeli ministers. But the declaration was approved by all ministers, including Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot of the National Unity party, who are members of the emergency war cabinet and considered centrists in Israeli politics.In response to the cabinet’s decision, a US State Department spokesperson said the US still supported the idea of a future Palestinian state. “The best way to achieve an enduring end to the crisis in Gaza that provides lasting peace and security, for Israelis and Palestinians alike, is our strong commitment to the creation of a Palestinian state,” the spokesperson said. Netanyahu has vowed that there will never be a two-state solution as long as he’s in power and has bragged that it’s thanks to him there is no Palestinian state. “I will not compromise on full Israeli security control over the entire area in the west of Jordan – and this is contrary to a Palestinian state,” he said in January after a call with President Biden.
Netanyahu Boasts That He's Blocked a Palestinian State 'for Decades' - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday boasted that he had worked “for decades” to block the establishment of a Palestinian state.“Everyone knows that I am the one who for decades blocked the establishment of a Palestinian state that would endanger our existence,” Netanyahu said, according to The Times of Israel.He made the comments while discussing a plan to introduce legislation into the Knesset that would match a declaration made by the Israeli cabinet on Sunday that rejected “international diktats” related to a Palestinian state.The strong statements came after reports said that the US and some of its Arab partners were looking to unveil an outline for a long-term peace deal that would include a “firm timeline” toward a Palestinian state. Netanyahu said Israel is facing “an attempt to force upon us the unilateral establishment of a Palestinian state which will endanger the existence of the State of Israel.” He said the Knesset legislation will “show the world that there is wide agreement in Israel against the international efforts to force on us a Palestinian state.”A vote on the Knesset legislation was initially scheduled for Monday night, but The Jerusalem Post reported that it was delayed by hardline factions who want a stronger statement against a Palestinian state. They say because the statement rejects a “unilateral” creation of a Palestinian state, it leaves open the possibility of accepting Palestinian statehood as part of future negotiations.
Israel sets Ramadan deadline for feared Rafah invasion - Israeli officials appear to have set a deadline to invade the southern Gaza city of Rafah — the largest refugee camp in the coastal territory — for the Muslim holy day of Ramadan on March 10. Benny Gantz, a member of the Israeli war Cabinet, delivered an ultimatum at a Sunday event with the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations, an umbrella group for the American Jewish community. “The world must know — and Hamas leaders must know — that if by Ramadan the hostages are not home, then the fighting will continue, including in Rafah,” Gantz said at the event. Israel has argued it must move into Rafah, which hosts more than a million Palestinians sheltering from the war, to ensure the complete military defeat of the Palestinian militant group Hamas. But the looming offensive is spurring major concerns from human rights groups and emergency responders on the ground, who warn that any invasion of Rafah could trigger a huge loss of civilian life and upend humanitarian efforts in the Gaza strip. Rafah, which borders Egypt, is the only place where humanitarian aid is consistently entering Gaza, and Israeli military operations there could hinder what few basic necessities many Palestinian civilians have access to, including food, water and medical aid. “Military operations in Rafah could lead to a slaughter in Gaza,” said Martin Griffiths, the U.N.’s emergency relief coordinator, in a statement last week. “They could also leave an already fragile humanitarian operation at death’s door.” To address those concerns, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he ordered his military to draft a plan to evacuate civilians before the invasion. Israel’s main ally, the U.S., has backed a move into Rafah, but only if a plan is created to keep civilians safe. Speaking at the same conference as Gantz over the weekend, Netanyahu said it was necessary to root out Hamas everywhere they are hiding, arguing “we cannot leave a quarter of Hamas’s terrorist battalions intact.” “Once you destroy the battalions, there is no organized command and control structure,” he said. “You’re left with individual terrorists, which we mop up with ground action.” Although military and regional political analysts warn that Hamas represents an ideology and will be extremely difficult to wipe out, Israel insists the group’s military capabilities can be degraded, and Netanyahu has said victory is within reach.
Gantz: Israel Will Launch Assault on Rafah by Ramadan If Hostages Not Released - Benny Gantz, a member of Israel’s war cabinet, threatened on Sunday that Israel will launch an assault on the southern Gaza city of Rafah if Hamas does not release the remaining Israeli hostages by Ramadan, which begins on March 10 this year.“The world must know, and Hamas leaders must know — if by Ramadan our hostages are not home, the fighting will continue to the Rafah area,” Gantz told a gathering of Jewish American organizations in Jerusalem on Sunday. Rafah has a pre-war population of 275,000 and is now packed with 1.5 million people as the city has become a final refuge for Palestinians who fled other areas of Gaza. Israeli airstrikes have been hitting Rafah, but Israel has yet to launch a full-scale invasion. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been vowing to follow through on his plans to invade Rafah, claiming it’s necessary to defeat Hamas, but Gantz’s comments are the first indication of a timeline on when the assault might start.“To those saying the price is too high, I say this very clearly: Hamas has a choice — they can surrender, release the hostages, and the citizens of Gaza will be able to celebrate the holy holiday of Ramadan,” Gantz said.Gantz’s comments came after Netanyahu vetoed further hostage deal talks, and there’s virtually no chance Hamas would release the remaining Israeli captives without some sort of agreement. The US has given Israel the green light to attack Rafah despite the risk of a huge number of civilian casualties. Publicly, US officials are saying Israel must come up with a plan to protect civilians in the city, but POLITICOreported that the US will not impose any consequences if it doesn’t.Gantz insisted Israel will attack Rafah “in a coordinated manner, facilitating the evacuation of civilians in dialogue with our American and Egyptian partners to minimize civilian casualties.” But it’s unclear where the Palestinian civilians could go, and Israel has bombed so-called “safe zones” over the past few months.The Wall Street Journal reported last week that Egypt is building a walled camp in the Sinai desert to prepare for an influx of Palestinians, signaling Cairo is softening on its position that it won’t allow refugees in its territory. Egyptian officials told the Journal that the camp could hold up to 100,000 people, but they would like to limit it to 50,000 to 60,000.
UK Warns It Could Restrict Arms Sales To Israel If Rafah Offensive Proceeds - Fresh headlines Wednesday say the United Kingdom is mulling restricting arms sales to Israel if it goes ahead with its planned major offensive on the southern Gaza city of Rafah, which is packed with over a million Palestinian refugees who've been forcibly relocated from other parts of the Strip. "Further escalation of Israel’s military action in Gaza without more effort to protect civilians could put it in breach of international humanitarian law, depending on how it conducts the operation, UK officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity about internal assessments," Bloomberg reports.Not only has London's High Court recently dealt with petitions from legal advocacy groups alleging British arms sent to Israel are being used to commit war crimes (petitions which thus far have been rejected), but the UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron has just issued a letter to Netanyahu's office calling for Israel to "stop and think seriously about the repercussions of a military offensive" on Rafah.Earlier this week Israeli defense officials for the first time said that the offensive would likely be launched by Ramadan, which begins on March 10 this year. The military has said Hamas can avoid this by releasing all of the hostages. At the UN Security Council, the UK abstained from a Tuesday vote on a resolution calling for immediate humanitarian ceasefire. It failed due to veto from the United States.The UK Foreign Secretary's letter said further, "we do not underestimate the devastating humanitarian impacts that a full ground offensive, if enacted, would have in these circumstances." Israel has vowed to allow Palestinian civilians to leave Rafah ahead of the ground offensive; however, there's the practical matter of where they would go from there. A massive fence separates Gaza from Egypt, and the Egyptians have erected a large walled-in refugee camp while anticipating that many civilians will flee into the Sinai desert regardless. But Egyptian authorities have said the camp can handle only up to 100,000 people.
Israel Demolishing Buildings to Construct Road in Gaza to Cut the Strip Into Two - Israel is demolishing buildings to build a road through central Gaza that will cut the Strip in two, demonstrating Israel’s long-term plans to occupy the territory.Israel’s Channel 14 reported on the road, which is being built in an area known as the Netzarim Corridor. The new road, known as Highway 749, will separate Gaza City from the rest of the Strip. Israel is creating a 1-kilometer “buffer zone” to the north and south of the road, similar to the zone it’s creating along the entire Israel-Gaza border. According to The New Arab, among the structures likely to be demolished to build the road is the Turkish-Palestinian Friendship Hospital, which was shut down in November due to an Israeli siege that cut off fuel.The construction will also require the demolition of Al-Aqsa University, several villages, amusement parks, and agricultural land. Israeli soldiers said the purpose of the road was to make it easier to launch incursions into Gaza, and it could also prevent the movement of Palestinians from the south to the north.The Wall Street Journal also reported on the highway and said it would effectively create a militarized belt across Gaza that will help prevent the 1 million Palestinians who fled the north from returning to their homes. Israeli officials told the Journal that the road will be patrolled until Israel’s military operations are complete, which they say could be years away.
Netanyahu Agrees to Send Negotiators to Paris for Hostage Deal Talks - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has agreed to send negotiatorsfor hostage deal talks with US, Egyptian, and Qatari officials in Paris on Friday after declining to participate in a previous round of talks.The decision came after Brett McGurk, President Biden’s top Middle East official on the National Security Council, met with officials in Israel on Thursday. According to a report from Axios, McGurk asked that Israeli negotiators be sent to Paris.Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told McGurk that Israel “will expand the authority given to our hostage negotiators” but is also “preparing to continue intense ground operations” in the Gaza Strip.Benny Gantz, an Israeli war cabinet minister, has threatened Israel will launch a full-scale assault on Rafah by the beginning of Ramadan, March 10, if Hamas doesn’t release the Israeli hostages. The deadline doesn’t give negotiators much time to reach a deal before the assault, which would kill a huge number of civilians, as the city is packed with 1.5 million Palestinian civilians.The deal the Biden administration is pushing would involve a six-week truce, but it’s unclear if Hamas would go for it since the Palestinian group has been trying to negotiate an agreement for a permanent ceasefire. Hamas’s latest known proposal was for a 135-day ceasefire, but it was strongly rejected by Netanyahu.The Axios report said the main sticking point between Israel and Hamas is over the number of Palestinian prisoners Israel would release. Hamas’s proposal called for the release of at least 1,500 Palestinians.According to Haaretz, Israeli officials believe “that Hamas may be willing to show more flexibility regarding the number of Palestinian prisoners that Israel will release and their identities, but they stress that the organization will persist in its efforts to exploit the deal to end the fighting in the Gaza Strip.”
Qatari PM Says Israel-Hamas Hostage Talks 'Not Very Promising' - Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani said Saturday that hostage deal talks Qatar and Egypt are mediating between Israel and Hamas are “not very promising” but vowed his country would continue the effort.“The pattern in the last few days is not really very promising but … we will always remain optimistic and will always remain pushing,” al-Thani said at the Munich Security Conference.Last week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vetoed further hostage deal talks without consulting his war cabinet, a move that enraged family members of Israeli hostages who remain captive in Gaza. Israel is now preparing for a large-scale assault on Rafah, the southern Gaza city that’s packed with 1.5 million Palestinians.Hamas’s latest proposal was for a 135-day truce to facilitate the release of Israeli hostages and thousands of Palestinian prisoners and to work toward a permanent ceasefire. Israeli officials called the conditions “delusional,” and Israel did not make a counter-offer during talks with US, Egyptian, and Qatari officials in Cairo last Tuesday.US officials say the deal they’re pushing is for a six-week truce, but it’s unclear if Hamas would go for it as the Palestinian group has been calling for a permanent ceasefire and withdrawal of all Israeli troops.Al-Thani also said on Saturday that a ceasefire should not be conditioned on a hostage deal. “This is the dilemma that we’ve been in and unfortunately that’s been misused by a lot of countries, that in order to get a ceasefire, it’s conditional to have the hostage deal. It shouldn’t be conditioned,” he said.The US has rejected the idea of a ceasefire throughout the conflict. President Biden and other officials claim they’re pushing for a hostage deal and truce, but the US continues to provide unconditional military aid for the slaughter of Palestinians and is preparing to ship more bombs to Israel.
Israeli Knesset Overwhelmingly Backs Netanyahu's Rejection of a Palestinian State - The Israeli Knesset has overwhelmingly backed a resolution put forward by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that rejects a “unilateral” creation of a Palestinian state.Ninety-nine lawmakers out of 120 in the Knesset voted in favor of the resolution. According to Ynet, Israel’s Labor Party boycotted the vote, and 11 Arab lawmakers voted against it. The majority of the leading opposition parties, National Unity and Yesh Atid, voted in favor.Netanyahu celebrated the strong support for his legislation. “I commend the Knesset members, including those from the opposition, who today voted overwhelmingly in favor of my proposal that Israel opposes being unilaterally dictated to establish a Palestinian state,” he said.“I don’t recall many votes, in fact, hardly any, where the Knesset voted with a majority of 99, nearly 100 members out of 120, on any proposal,” Netanyahu added.The resolution came in response to reports that say the US is working with some of its Arab partners on an outline for a future peace deal that would include a “firm timeline” toward a Palestinian state. The Knesset vote happened after the Israeli cabinet unanimously approved a similar declaration that rejected “international diktats” on a Palestinian state.
Report: North Korean missile fired by Russia against Ukraine contained US and European components -- A North Korean ballistic missile fired last month by the Russian military in Ukraine contained hundreds of components that trace back to companies in the US and Europe, according to a new report. The findings mark the first public identification of North Korea’s reliance on foreign technology for its missile program and underscore the persistent problem facing the Biden administration as it tries to keep cheap, Western-made microelectronics intended for civilian use from winding up in weapons used by North Korea, Iran and Russia.The UK-based investigative organization Conflict Armament Research, or CAR, directly examined 290 components from remnants of a North Korean ballistic missile recovered in January from Kharkiv, Ukraine, and found that 75% of the components were designed and sold by companies incorporated in the United States, according to the report shared first with CNN.A further 16% of the components found in the missile were linked to companies incorporated in Europe, the researchers found, and 9% to companies incorporated in Asia. These components primarily comprised the missile’s navigation system and could be traced to 26 companies headquartered in the US, China, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, Singapore, Switzerland and Taiwan, the report says.Last year, as CNN previously reported, CAR determined that 82% of components inside Iranian-made attack drones fired by Russia inside Ukraine were made by US companies.Along with extensive sanctions and export controls aimed at curbing access to Western-made technology, in late 2022 the Biden administration also set up an expansive task force to investigate how US and Western components, including American-made microelectronics, were ending up in Iranian-made drones Russia has been launching by the hundreds into Ukraine. It is not clear how much progress that task force has made — the National Security Council did not respond to multiple requests for comment.The latest CAR report does not name the specific companies that produced the components, because there is no evidence the firms deliberately shipped the parts to North Korea — instead, the components were likely diverted somewhere in the vast global supply chain once the companies sold them to various international distributors. CAR therefore prefers to work with the companies to try to fix the problem rather than to name and shame them, a CAR spokesperson told CNN.
Ukrainian forces withdraw from Avdeevka - Ukrainian forces withdrew from the destroyed eastern city of Avdeevka on Saturday, following months of bloody fighting that resulted in the deaths of tens of thousands of soldiers and ended in a clear debacle for the government of President Volodymyr Zelensky. The fall of the formerly Ukrainian-controlled city was first announced by Ukraine’s newly appointed Commander-in-Chief Oleksander Syrsky on Facebook. Syrsky wrote that he had given the order to retreat “in order to avoid encirclement and preserve the lives and health of servicemen.” Syrsky’s claims of concern for the well-being of Ukrainian soldiers are self-serving and cannot be taken seriously as the risk of encirclement was already well known by early February. Syrsky, who recently replaced former General Valery Zaluzhny as head of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, reportedly continued to hold on to the city and send in reinforcements on direct orders from Zelensky. According to Russian sources, at the height of fighting this past month, Ukrainian forces were suffering casualties of up to 1,500 soldiers a day. Russia’s Defense Ministry later confirmed that Russian forces had taken control of the city on Sunday, marking its most significant victory since the similarly bloody battle over the city of Bakhmut in May 2023 that became known as a “meat grinder” due to mass casualties on both sides. Syrsky similarly led Ukraine’s defense of Bakhmut on direct orders from Zelensky, resulting in the deaths of tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers, many of them experienced veterans. Released videos from Russian drones in Avdeevka also appeared to show Ukrainian soldiers haphazardly retreating while under attack from Russian artillery fire and air strikes, leaving behind multiple military vehicles. The videos clearly contradict Syrsky’s claims of an orderly withdrawal as they were recorded a day before Syrsky ordered the retreat.
Russia has broken the stalemate in Ukraine: Former US Defense secretary -The Russian military has broken the stalemate in the Ukraine war, Robert Gates, former CIA director and secretary of Defense, said Wednesday, following Moscow’s successful push to take the front-line city of Avdiivka. “It’s no longer a stalemate. The Russians have regained momentum,” Gates told The Washington Post’s David Ignatius in a streaming interview. “Everything I’m reading is that the Russians are on the offensive along the 600-mile front.” Russia has suffered staggering losses in the war, he noted, but with Ukraine now confronting artillery shortages due to flagging U.S. support, “the Russians are feeling that the tides have turned, and while there is much to be done, the initiative has passed to them,” Gates said. “They have more and more supplies coming in — I’ve read that for every artillery shell fired by Ukrainian forces, the Russians fire 10,” he added. Russian officials announced Monday that its forces finalized their capture of the key Ukrainian city of Avdiivka after taking full control of the city’s large coke plant. The costly operation marked Russia’s first major victory in months, and its most significant gain since taking nearby Bakhmut last spring. President Biden pinned the blame for Ukraine battlefield losses directly on House Republicans, who have refused to back additional aid to Kyiv without major immigration reform. Gates noted that European allies in NATO, “who we so often criticize,” have stepped up their support to Ukraine, but lack the ability to immediately send weapons. Production timelines will see NATO support reach the battlefield in 2025, he estimated. Right now, “the only real military lifeline comes from the United States. And as we all know, that is, shall we say, on pause right now,” he said. Aid to Ukraine still lingers in the House, where Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is caught between moderates who support Ukraine and far-right members who oppose it without major concessions from Democrats on the border. Gates called out Congress specifically for being too slow on approving key battlefield capabilities throughout the war, such as missile systems that have allowed strikes against Russian-occupied Crimea, which he called a “no-brainer.”“Congress will debate for a year or more whether to send the Ukrainians tanks, and after a year, they’ll send tanks,” he said. These weapons could have arrived “a year and a half” earlier, and their delay has restrained Ukraine’s abilities, he said.
Watch: Putin Co-Pilots Supersonic Nuclear-Capable Bomber - Russian President Vladimir Putin just sent the Western military alliance a not-so-subtle message just days after his top national security official Dmitry Medvedev warned that Moscow stands ready to use its entire strategic arsenal on London, Washington, Berlin and Kiev if Russian territory comes under direct attack from NATO. On Thursday Putin entered the co-pilot’s seat in a nuclear-capable strategic bomber for a 30 to 40 minute flight, parts of which were filmed and quickly released by Russian state sources. Putin's brief flight in the upgraded Tu-160M supersonic strategic bomber also comes ahead of next month's Russian election, though of course we all know pretty much what the outcome will be. Watch below as Putin goes 'nuclear-capable'...
Rheinmetall Shares Reach New High On Plans For Ammunition Plant In Ukraine -- One of the world's largest producers of artillery and tank shells secured a joint venture with a Ukrainian partner to produce 155mm caliber bullets. On Saturday, German defense company Rheinmetall announced it had signed a memorandum of understanding with an unnamed Ukrainian company at the Munich Security Conference. The Mou was signed by Rheinmetall executives and Alexander Kamyshin, the Ukrainian Minister for Strategic Industries. Rheinmetall will have a 51% stake in the new artillery ammunition factory, while the Ukranian partner will hold 49%. The factory will begin producing a "six-digit number of 155mm caliber bullets per year" in 2025, according to the defense firm. "Demand for ammunition in many countries is enormous – first and foremost in Ukraine, of course. Our intention of establishing another joint venture underscores our support for Ukraine. This joint venture will make a vital contribution to the country's ability to defend itself – and thus to the security of all Europe", Armin Papperger, chairman of the executive board of Rheinmetall, wrote in a statement. Papperger continued: "We want to be an effective partner of Ukraine, to help rebuild the country's once powerful defence industry, and to assure Ukrainian autonomy in ammunition production. Already today, we are Kyiv's most important defence industry partner. We are currently processing several billion euros worth of projects on behalf of Ukraine, with more almost daily."
EU opens formal investigation into TikTok’s impact on minors - The European Commission opened a formal investigation to review whether the social media app TikTok violated new rules in place that aim to protect minors online, it announced Monday. The investigation will review if TikTok, owned by the Chinese-based parent company ByteDance, breached the Digital Services Act (DSA), the EU’s new online children protection rule that went into effect Saturday, by its platform design and privacy settings. If the commission establishes a breach of the DSA, it could impose a fine of up to 6 percent of the global revenue of the company. The formal proceeding launched Monday followed a preliminary investigation conducted in September, according to the commission. The proceeding will focus on TikTok’s algorithmic systems, including systems “that may stimulate behavioral addictions and/ or create so-called ‘rabbit hole effects,’” according to the announcement. The probe will also review if TikTok has put in place appropriate measures to “ensure a high level of privacy, safety and security for minors,” and if the platform is compliant with DSA obligations to provide a searchable repository for advertisements. A TikTok spokesperson said the company will continue to work with experts and the industry to “keep young people on TikTok safe” and explain this work in detail to the commission. “TikTok has pioneered features and settings to protect teens and keep under 13s off the platform, issues the whole industry is grappling with,” the spokesperson said in a statement.
Australia to Double Its Naval Fleet in Buildup Aimed at China - On Monday, Australia announced a plan to increase its military spending by $7 billion and more than double its fleet of warships over the next 10 years as part of a buildup aimed at China, Australia’s largest trading partner.According to AFP, the plan will see Australia increase its number of surface vessels to 26, up from 11 today. Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles said it will be Australia’s largest fleet since World War II.“What is critically important to understand is that as we look forward, with an uncertain world in terms of great power contest, we’ll have a dramatically different capability in the mid-2030s to what we have now,”Marles said.Australia is also working with the US and the UK on the AUKUS military pact that will arm Canberra with nuclear-powered submarines, with the eventual goal of Australia being able to produce its own. Australia is expected to spend up to $245 billion on AUKUS by 2055.On top of its own military buildup, Canberra is allowing the US to beef up its presence in Australia. Another aspect of AUKUS includes more deployments of US troops, aircraft, and naval assets to Australia.
