week ending Jan 19

 Powell May Not Know It Yet, But The Fed Is Now Trapped - With even Morgan Stanley openly discussing whether the Fed will "make the market happy", it now appears that the Fed tightening is effectively over with the Fed Funds rate barely above 2%, and the only question is whether the Fed will cut rates in 2019 or 2020 - roughly around the time the next recession is expected to strike - and whether the balance sheet shrinkage will stop at the same time (and be followed by more QE).To be sure this new consensus was reflected in both equity and credit markets, both of which cheered the Fed's recent dovish U-Turn, and recouped all their losses since mid-December. And yet, market paradoxes quickly emerged: for one, rates markets yawned. On December 31, rates were pricing no Fed hikes over the next two years. Today, after the Fed’s big ‘change of tone’, expectations are almost exactly the same.Second, a material disconnect has emerged between front-end pricing (no hikes) and the level of 10-year real rates (near seven-year highs). If, as Morgan Stanley's Andrew Sheets notes, "one of these is right, the other seems hard to justify." Then there is, of course, the lament about the neutral rate being so low - and the potential output of the US economy so weak - that it can't sustain nominal rates above 2.25% - incidentally we explained back in 2015 the very simple reason why r-star, or the real neutral rate, is stuck at such a low level and is only set to drift even lower: record amounts of debt are depressing economic output, as the following sensitivity analysis showed. Bank of America touched on this key concern last week when it said mused rhetorically that "if the US rates market is right, this would suggest that potential growth is much, much lower than generally accepted." Which, to anyone who read our 2015 analysis, should have been obvious: after all there is too much debt in the system to be able to sustain material rate increases.

 Fed's Biggest Hawk Folds- George Says Now May Be A Good Time To Pause Rate Hikes -- According to JPMorgan, Kansas City Fed president Ester George is the Fed's most prominent (voting) hawk. Which is why it is notable that moments ago George, the Fed's biggest hawk, officially threw in the towel when during a speech for an event at Kansas City, George said that "it might be a good time to pause our interest rate normalization, study the incoming evidence and data, and verify our current location." Additionally George said that while "earlier in the normalization process, the FOMC provided forward guidance suggesting that monetary policy was accommodative,” she then added that "given current economic conditions, providing such explicit guidance now about the future path of policy rates would not be appropriate in my view", confirming that the Fed will be especially Dow data-dependent. She hedged her dovishness by saying that "it is possible that some additional rate increases will be appropriate." But, she added "making that judgment is not urgent and should depend on a careful look at the data and gathering additional insight into where our destination is, how much further we need to go to reach it and how quickly we should get there." She was less deterministic on the ongoing balance-sheet rolloff, saying that "it is unclear whether, or how much, this roll off is further removing accommodation" even as she noted that she is "mindful that the effects of past policy actions have not yet fully played out, calling for patience in considering our policy actions."Why is this notable? Because "failure to recognize these lags could lead to an overtightening of policy, a downturn in economic growth and an undershooting of our inflation objective."

Fed's Beige Book: Economic Growth "modest to moderate", Labor Market "Tight" --  Fed's Beige Book "This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago based on information collected on or before January 7, 2019. "  Economic activity increased in most of the U.S., with eight of twelve Federal Reserve Districts reporting modest to moderate growth. Nonauto retail sales grew modestly, as several Districts reported more holiday traffic compared with last year. Auto sales were flat on balance. The majority of Districts indicated that manufacturing expanded, but that growth had slowed, particularly in the auto and energy sectors. New home construction and existing home sales were little changed, with several Districts reporting that sales were limited by rising prices and low inventory. Commercial real estate activity was also little changed on balance. Most Districts reported modest to moderate growth in activity in the nonfinancial services sector, though a few Districts noted that growth there had slowed. The energy sector expanded at a slower pace, and lower energy prices contributed to a pullback in the industry's capital spending expectations. The agriculture sector struggled as prices generally remained low despite recent increases. Overall, lending volumes grew modestly, though a few Districts noted that growth had slowed. Outlooks generally remained positive, but many Districts reported that contacts had become less optimistic in response to increased financial market volatility, rising short-term interest rates, falling energy prices, and elevated trade and political uncertainty. Employment increased in most of the country, with a plurality of Districts reporting modest growth.All Districts noted that labor markets were tight and that firms were struggling to find workers at any skill level.

 "Contacts Are Less Optimistic": Fed's Beige Book Confirms Economy Is Slowing - Ever since April, the otherwise drab and colorless Fed Beige Book, was notable for one specific trend: a rising frequency of the word "tariff" (and its variations) with every subsequent report, confirming that in addition to the usual concerns businesses voiced to the regional Fed such as labor and prices, one of the growing worries amid local companies was the impact of trade war on future business. And, as we noted back in November , with the Trump-Xi summit fast approaching, the Beige Book confirmed that with no less than 51 mentions of the word "tariff", most companies were on edge over future trade prospects.  However, last month when the December Beige Book was released there was one notable development: we saw the first decline in mentions of "tariffs" since May, with the word tariff used only 39 times, a steep drop from October's 51. Fast forward to today when in the latest, just released January Beige Book we find that this trend has accelerated even more as there was just 20 mentions of "tariffs", a stop drop from both December's 39, and October's record 51.  And while superficially this may be taken as a good sign, another, perhaps more ominous trend has emerged. But first, a quick glimpse at what else today's Beige Book revealed: a casual glance of the summary page revealed few surprises. Indeed, according to the Federeal Reserve, most regions reported growth at an overall modest to moderate pace even as the still-strong U.S. economy showed signs of slowing in recent weeks amid declining optimism. “Outlooks generally remained positive, but many districts reported that contacts had become less optimistic in response to increased financial market volatility, rising short-term interest rates, falling energy prices, and elevated trade and political uncertainty,” the report said in its summary of overall economic activity.

Q4 GDP Forecasts: Mid-to-High 2s -- From Merrill Lynch: 4Q GDP tracking remains at 2.8%. We forecast 1Q GDP growth of 2.2%, but downside risks are emerging due to the government shutdown. [Jan 18 estimate]    From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report:  The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.6% for 2018:Q4 and 2.2% for 2019:Q1. [Jan 18 estimate]   And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow   The current GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.8 percent on January 16, unchanged from January 10. [Jan 16 estimate]    CR Note: These estimates suggest GDP in the mid-to-high 2s for Q4.

US May Enter Recession As Soon As This Quarter Due To Extended Shutdown - Ahead of the government shutdown in December, one bank after another - desperate to defend their bullish takes on the economy - predicted that the government shutdown would barely have an adverse impact on the US economy. However, now that the shutdown has entered its 25th day, extending the longest shutdown on record... ... it appears that economists are starting to change their mind, and now none other than the Trump administration itself now estimates that the cost of the government shutdown will be twice as steep as originally forecast. As CNBC's Steve Liesman reports, the original estimate that the partial shutdown would subtract 0.1% from growth every two weeks has now been doubled to a 0.1% subtraction every week, citing an unnamed official. While the administration had initially counted just the impact from the 800,000 federal workers not receiving their paychecks. But they now believe the impact doubles, due to greater losses from private contractors also out of work and other government spending and functions that won't occur, according to CNBC. Furthermore, the admin official said that if the shutdown lasts the rest of this month, it could subtract a sizable half a percentage point from gross domestic product, which if one assumes a sharp drop in inventories as retailers are forced to liquidate unsold products - something Macy's warned about last week - could potentially shift Q1 GDP into the red. The subtraction from growth would add to the troubles of an economy already thought to be slowing from waning effects of tax stimulus, trade tensions and gathering global weakness. 

No Mere 'Stunt': Experts Warn Trump Emergency Declaration Would Spark 'Constitutional Crisis' - As President Donald Trump continues to escalate his threat to declare a national emergency to construct a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border—and amid reports that his administration is already laying the groundwork for the declaration—legal experts and progressive critics warned against the notion that the move would be a mere political "stunt" and argued it would spark a full-blown constitutional crisis.  "This is a constitutional crisis, plain and simple," Stephen Miles, director of Win Without War, wrote in a series of tweets on Thursday following Trump's brief visit to the border, where he said he will "most likely" make good on his threats to declare a national emergency.  "The constitution gives Congress solely the power to appropriate funds," Miles added. "They have done so and Trump is planning to unilaterally take those funds and use them for another purpose for his own political agenda... If he can claim anything is a crisis to get what he wants, there is no meaningful balance of power."  While many legal experts have argued that declaring a national emergency to fund the construction of a border wall would be an illegal abuse of power, Miles argued that there is "no reason to believe" the courts—and particularly not the conservative-dominated Supreme Court—will stop Trump from bypassing Congress to construct a border wall that most Americans don't want.  In a recent piece for the New York Times, Yale law professor Bruce Ackerman argued that not only would Trump's proposed emergency declaration be illegal, "but if members of the armed forces obeyed his command, they would be committing a federal crime."

Frustration swells as Trump rejects proposal to reopen government - US President Donald Trump said on Monday that he rejected a proposal from a Republican ally in the Senate that would have temporarily reopened closed parts of the government to allow resumption of negotiations on a funding standoff.As the shutdown, the longest of its type in US history, entered its 24th day, Trump told reporters he disagreed with Republican Senator Lindsey Graham's proposal to reopen the government for three weeks.If talks failed during that period, Graham said on Sunday, then Trump could go ahead and declare a national emergency to bypass Congress and get money for a wall on the US-Mexico border - the issue that triggered the shutdown on December 22. Amid swelling criticism, Trump has refused to budge on his demand that a spending bill include $5.7bn for a wall on the country's southern border, a promise on which Trump campaigned for the presidency.  Democrats have rejected Trump's demand for funding for the border wall in addition to other border funds but have said they would support $1.3bn to bolster border security in other ways, including beefing up the number of Border Patrol agents and increasing surveillance.

 Trump: "I Haven't Left The White House Since The Shutdown Began" - With the partial federal government shutdown entering its twenty-second day on Saturday - breaking a record set by a shutdown in late 1995 to become the longest in US history - President Trump called in to Judge Jeanine Pirro's show on Saturday night and revived his threat to declare a national emergency if Democrats don't accede to his demands to fund at least part of his proposed border wall.The shutdown began last month after Dems refused to support including $5.7 billion as part of a funding package for a handful of government agencies. They then reportedly rejected several compromise offers floated by the White House as Speaker Nancy Pelosi denounced the wall as "immoral" and insisted that Dems wouldn't vote to support a single dollar of funding for one of Trump's core campaign promises.Since then, Trump has wavered on whether he should call a national emergency to order the Army Corps. of Engineers to build the wall. According to one widely reported plan under consideration, Trump could tap funding allocated for disaster-relief efforts to build an even larger segment of the wall than what he had asked Congress. Though on Friday, Trump said "I would rather not" declare a national emergency, saying he'd rather see Congress act on an issue that the president has framed as a "humanitarian crisis."Instead of departing for Mar-a-Lago for the holidays, Trump opted to spend the last weeks of December in the White House waiting for Democrats to come to the table and cut a table (a period that was distinguished by a stream of furious presidential tweets). During his interview with Pirro, Trump affirmed what anybody who has been paying attention to his twitter feed likely suspected: He has not left the White House since the shutdown began. "I’ve been here virtually every night," Trump said. He then insisted that he has "the absolute right" to call a national emergency if the Democrats don't "return from their vacation and act" (a reference to a trip to Puerto Rico taken by 30 Democrats where they're meeting with lobbyists and seeing an exclusive production of "Hamilton".

McConnell blocks House bill to reopen government for second time -- Senate Republicans blocked a House-passed package to reopen the federal government for a second time in as many weeks on Tuesday. Democratic Sens. Chris Van Hollen (Md.) and Ben Cardin (Md.) asked for consent to take up a package of bills that would reopen the federal government. One bill would fund the Department of Homeland Security through Feb. 8, while the other would fund the rest of the impacted departments and agencies through Sept. 30, the end of the fiscal year. Under Senate rules, any senator can ask for consent to vote on or pass a bill, but any senator can object. McConnell blocked the two bills, saying the Senate wouldn't "participate in something that doesn't lead to an outcome." McConnell for weeks has said he would not bring legislation to the floor on the shutdown unless there was a deal between President Trump and Democrats on border security, the issue that has triggered the shutdown. McConnell has described other votes as "show votes." "The solution to this is a negotiation between the one person in the country who can sign something into law, the president of the United States, and our Democratic colleagues," McConnell said Tuesday. Roughly a quarter of the government has been shut down since Dec. 22 over an entrenched fight on funding for Trump’s proposed wall on the U.S.-Mexico border wall. The Senate passed a stopgap bill late last year by a voice vote, but it was rejected by the White House because it didn’t include extra border money.

Democrats turn down White House invitation for shutdown talks -- No Democrats attended a lunch on Tuesday with President Trump designed to reach an agreement to end the government shutdown and fund a border wall, as the president’s attempt to force leaders back to the negotiating table fell flat. Trump invited several moderate House Democrats to the White House in an effort to undermine Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who has refused to grant Trump his demand for $5.7 billion in wall funding. But the group turned down the invitation. “Today, the president offered both Democrats and Republicans the chance to meet for lunch at the White House. Unfortunately, no Democrats will attend,” White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said in a statement ahead of the meeting. A group of nine House Republicans were scheduled to meet with the president, but Sanders said “it’s time for the Democrats to come to the table and make a deal.” Two of the GOP lawmakers, Reps. Rodney Davis (Ill.) and John Katko (N.Y.), have voted for Democratic bills to reopen government agencies. After the meeting ended, Republicans lambasted Democrats for refusing to attend in an attempt to pin blame on them for the shutdown. “He’s put a deal on the table,” Davis said of Trump while speaking to reporters at the White House. “The sheer fact that no Democrats [were] here to even talk with us shows the lack of willingness to compromise.” The event was the latest sign that no end remains in sight for the partial shutdown, which on Tuesday entered its record-setting 25th day. 

Support for Trump's wall reaches all-time high: Poll -- Support for President Trump's wall along the U.S.-Mexico border is at an all-time high weeks into a partial government shutdown which began over a border security dispute for funding.  According to the results of an ABC News and Washington Post poll released Sunday morning, 42 percent of Americans support a wall. That is up from 34 percent one year ago and a previous high of 37 percent in 2017.  With 54 percent, the majority poll still oppose building a border wall. However, that opposition is shrinking, as 63 percent opposed the wall a year ago and the previous low was 60 percent two years ago.   Trump's demand for roughly $5.6 billion in border security funding led to what is now the longest government shutdown in history as Democrats in Congress reject any spending bills that include money for a wall. Last week, the fight escalated when Trump delivered a prime-time address to the nation to make his case for a physical barrier along the southern border, calling the situation a crisis. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., delivered a rebuttal, arguing Trump was propagating a "manufactured crisis."According to the poll, only about a quarter of Americans — 24 percent — believe there is a crisis-level situation in regards to immigration at the border.While support for Trump's wall has risen, most Americans blame Trump and his fellow Republicans for the shutdown: 53 percent say Trump and the GOP are mainly responsible, while only 29 percent point to congressional Democrats. Thirteen percent of respondents blame both sides equally.

 The Revised NAFTA Deal Will NOT Fund Trump’s Border Wall, Directly or Indirectly - Lori Wallach - Donald Trump keeps repeating the ludicrous claim that somehow the revised NAFTA will fund his wall even though it remains unclear if the deal will be enacted and, if it is, the text does not include border wall funding directly nor would it generate new government revenue indirectly given that it cuts the very few remaining tariffs, not raises them. A back-of-the-envelope calculation reveals a new 20 percent tariff would have to be imposed on all imports from Mexico to put the money  to construct the wall into the U.S. Treasury and that money would come from importers, not the Mexican government. All imports into the United States from Mexico have been duty free for more than a decade, meaning that NAFTA trade does not generate money from Mexican importers for U.S. government coffers and nothing in the NAFTA 2.0 changes that. So much for Trump’s great negotiating skills, given its obvious that trying to connect NAFTA to funding for his wall decreases the likelihood Congress passes the revised NAFTA, even if Trump’s NAFTA-wall-funding claims are entirely without merit. Perhaps the strongest evidence that nothing in NAFTA 2.0 forces Mexico to pay for Trump’s border wall is that Mexico, which has made clear it will not pay, signed the deal.

All eight border wall prototypes fail basic penetrability test - As the Trump administration prepares to potentially declare a national emergency to jumpstart construction of a wall along the U.S.’s southern border—as well as possibly using storm aid funds to do so—the viability of the wall itself has come under fire. In a photo obtained by NBC News, one of the steel bollard border wall prototypes in Otay Mesa, California, was easily breached using an off-the-shelf saw.  The eight border wall prototypes in Otay Mesa (directly across from Tijuana in Mexico) were assembled in early 2017 after an executive order directed the Department of Homeland Security to design and build a southern border wall. Four concrete wall segment mockups, and four from mixed materials, were assembled in the desert. The 30-foot-tall prototypes were graded on their aesthetic qualities in August 2018, but testing in late 2017 has revealed that all eight may be easy to penetrate. No testing on how well the walls were able to resist tunneling appears to have been conducted, despite that being a major design criterion in the Request for Proposal. Additionally, none of the eight designs met the requirements for adaptability across the thousands of miles of the border’s rugged, varied terrain.

Sickouts spread, impact widens as US shutdown enters fourth week - The impact of the longest government shutdown in US history continues to ripple across the economy as more than 800,000 federal workers and many thousands more government contractors try to cope with missed paychecks.Spontaneous sickouts by Transportation Security Administration (TSA) screeners led this weekend to the closure of terminals and checkpoints at two airports, Miami International Airport Friday through Sunday and Houston’s Bush Airport on Sunday.The rate of unscheduled leave for TSA workers, among the lowest paid of federal employees, is increasing across the country. On Saturday, officials admitted that nearly eight percent of the 51,000 TSA workforce failed to report to work. Last year at this time, the absentee rate was just 3.2 percent. In the Washington, D.C. area, home to more than 250,000 federal workers, a pop-up food bank distributed more than 30,000 pounds of food Saturday to government and contract employees at five locations. “People can't survive like this,” Lorette Legendre, a contractor with the General Services Administration, told National Public Radio. “To stand out here in 30-degree weather to get food? This is America? Something’s wrong here.”

US shutdown: Sickouts by screeners throw airports into crisis - Transportation Safety Administration (TSA) baggage screeners continued to call in sick at high rates Monday, forcing a growing number of airports to close security checkpoints and delay passenger travel. In addition to this weekend’s closures in Miami and Houston, Washington DC’s Dulles Airport and Atlanta’s Hartsfield-Jackson Airport closed several screening lanes Monday. In Atlanta, CNN reporter Omar Jimenez tweeted: “So I’m at @ATLairport and this may be the longest security line I have ever seen. Even growing up here, and even for a Monday morning. One passenger told me he’d been waiting over and hour and still had about 30 minutes to go.” Figures from TSA officials indicated that no-shows remained more than double typical levels. The sick-out rate Monday was 7.6 percent compared to 3.2 percent at the same time last year. Expectations are that the workers’ boycott will only expand. Airports around the country are preparing contingency plans to deal with shortages of screeners. The sickouts are one reflection, in an unorganized form, of growing anger and determination to take action against what is now 24 days of uncompensated, compulsory labor for 420,000 workers and the lockout of another 380,000. The mounting resistance of federal workers is now joined by the strike of 30,000 teachers in Los Angeles, the nation’s second largest school district.

Flying blind - The government shutdown is affecting some important economic indicators. All of the series published by the Census Bureau, including retail sales, manufacturers’ and wholesalers’ data, personal income and spending, new home sales and housing permits and starts, are not being published.  It appears that GDP is not going to be published by the BEA either.  In the past I have created work-arounds for a few economic series, in particular new jobless claims and industrial production, neither of which appear affected at this point, as the former is published by the Department of Labor, and the latter by the Fed. If the government shutdown continues — and a long shutdown, until there is widespread pain or an avoidable disaster (like a plane crash or widespread food-borne disease outbreak) looks like the most likely scenario for now — I will attempt serviceable work-arounds for at least some of these series.   For starters, retail sales was scheduled to be released this Wednesday. Almost certainly that isn’t going to happen, so on Wednesday I’ll publish a guesstimate that hopefully will at least get the direction correct, and capture some of the strength or weakness of that direction.But, make no mistake, not having access to reliable economic data isn’t just a drawback for me, it’s a cost to any enterprises attempting to make decisions. Some of those businesses are going to postpone making a decision — on hiring as well as spending — until they have more clarity. And the postponement of spending decisions means a drag on GDP and employment. Unfortunately it appears that the spate of short shutdowns in the past several decades have caused Washington to “learn” that, at least in the short term, nothing too bad happens when government is closed. Thus, flying blind will continue until we crash into something.

The White House thinks the shutdown will be twice as bad for the economy than expected - The Trump administration now estimates that the cost of the government shutdown will be twice as steep as originally forecast. The original estimate that the partial shutdown would subtract 0.1 percentage point from growth every two weeks has now been doubled to a 0.1 percentage point subtraction every week, according to an official who asked not to be named. The administration had initially counted just the impact from the 800,000 federal workers not receiving their paychecks. But they now believe the impact doubles, due to greater losses from private contractors also out of work and other government spending and functions that won't occur. If the shutdown lasts the rest of this month, it could subtract a sizable half a percentage point from gross domestic product, the official said. The subtraction from growth would add to the troubles of an economy already thought to be slowing from the waning effects of tax stimulus, trade tensions and gathering global weakness. The administration's estimate is more aggressive than some forecasts from Wall Street economists. Those estimates have centered around a 0.1 percentage point cut to growth every two weeks. They have been rising, however, as it looked like the shutdown would drag on. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, forecasts a half a percentage point hit to GDP if the shutdown lasts through March, roughly a third of the administration's new estimate. "We estimate (the shutdown) will reduce first quarter real GDP growth by approximately 0.5 percentage points," Zandi wrote in a research report. "Of this, about half will be due to the lost hours of government workers, and the other half to the hit to the rest of the economy." Zandi said his estimate could worsen if the administration can't continue to triage the effects of the shutdown or if the administration can't issue tax refunds. On the other hand, Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, believes the combination of the shutdown and the tendency of the first quarter to be statistically weaker than the other three means growth could turn negative. "If the shutdown were to last through the whole quarter, we would look for an outright decline in first quarter GDP," Shepherdson wrote in a report.

In a Month You’ll Wish the Shutdown Were Only as Bad as Today - Airport security screeners could quit en masse, grounding flights. The federal courts could stop hearing civil cases. City buses could stop running. And 38 million Americans could stop getting food stamps.Officials from Washington to Wall Street are pondering nightmare scenarios if the partial U.S. government shutdown that is already the longest on record extends into spring -- or beyond. “Shutdowns don’t get bad linearly; they get bad exponentially,” said Sam Berger, a senior adviser at the Center for American Progress, who worked at the Office of Management and Budget under President Barack Obama.  President Donald Trump’s administration has found creative means to blunt some of the shutdown’s effects -- figuring out ways to process tax refunds, for example. Yet agencies that have been able to dip into user fees, leftover funds and other revenue streams are running out of those reserves. Lawsuits are already testing the administration’s ability to keep on the job unpaid workers, hundreds of thousands of whom missed their first paycheck last week. Efforts by Republicans such as Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina to cut an immigration deal to resolve the impasse have failed, and Trump on Monday rejected his latest proposal. An administration official said the White House is game-planning for the shutdown to continue through at least the end of February.  Beyond its direct effects on businesses, economists say the shutdown threatens to shake consumer confidence and chip away at retail sales, particularly as unpaid federal workers and contractors forgo spending on cars, new homes and even entertainment.  To be sure, three-quarters of the government was funded by appropriations enacted before the standoff began. Departments such as Defense, Labor and Health and Human Services remain in business. Still others, like the U.S. Postal Service and U.S. Federal Reserve, have funding streams separate from what Congress provides. But the shuttering of more than a dozen departments and agencies -- from Homeland Security to the Environmental Protection Agency -- is being felt across the country, threatening the economy, public safety, businesses and people’s wallets.  And it’s only going to get worse.

Leaders nix recess with no shutdown deal in sight -- Senate and House leaders said Tuesday they will cancel the Martin Luther King Jr. Day recess unless there is a sudden resolution to the 25-day partial government shutdown, which appears unlikely given a breakdown in high-level talks. Senate Democratic Leader Charles Schumer (N.Y.), one of the principal negotiators, told reporters Tuesday that he hasn’t spoken to President Trump in nearly a week, underlining the standstill in negotiations. “The last I spoke with him was when he walked out, threw a temper tantrum and walked out, so we haven’t heard from him since then,” Schumer told reporters after meeting with the Democratic caucus. A group of centrist House Democrats on Tuesday rejected a White House invitation to attend talks with Republicans and Trump, seeing it as an effort to divide the party. A Democratic congressional aide said the meeting appeared to be pulled together “haphazardly at the last minute,” with invitations to members received from the White House beginning in the late afternoon on Monday and continuing until late at night. “The congressman is declining the invitation,” said Andrew Scibetta, a spokesman for Rep. Lou Correa (D-Calif.). “Congressman Correa welcomes the opportunity to talk with the president about border security, as soon as the government is reopened.” The White House and Republicans who did attend the meeting criticized the Democrats for skipping it. “The sheer fact that no Democrats [were] here to even talk with us shows the lack of willingness to compromise,” said Rep. Rodney Davis (Ill.), one of the Republicans who went to the White House. Democrats feel confident they have leverage on Trump, who has seen his poll numbers steadily erode as the shutdown drags on. “Every day he’s losing. The Gallup poll today had him at a near record low of 37 percent popularity. Even some of his base is losing faith,” Schumer said on the Senate floor Tuesday morning. “President Trump, you’re not going to win this fight with the American people. Every day it drags on, you are less popular.” 

Pornhub views spike in DC as lawmakers keep busy during shutdown - Pornhub has released stats showing a rise in logins from Washington DC, suggesting furloughed federal employees may be choosing to spend their unpaid forced vacations engaged in a little self-love. While Pornhub's traffic was up for the US in general, Washington DC saw an even larger increase than the whole-country average, with 6.32 percent more visitors than the site logged in the week preceding the shutdown. Women, it seemed, were finding the shutdown especially erotic, as female traffic was up a full 12.3 percent.Late-night traffic saw the biggest increase, with 12 percent more visitors from the capital – consistent, Pornhub reported, with other events where users stay up late and sleep in, secure in the knowledge they don't have to go to work. The shutdown entered its 27th day on Thursday and doesn't show any signs of ending, leaving 800,000 government workers with idle hands. DC users – perhaps missing the sunshine on their skin as the January chill keeps them indoors – especially loved "outdoor" clips, which saw a 71-percent rise in category views. "Threesome" and "old/young" were the next two most popular genres among those longing for the bipartisan reconciliation that would bring back their paychecks. "Cuckold" and "trans" were also in the top 10.

'Senior Trump Official'- I Hope A Long Shutdown Smokes Out The Resistance - As one of the senior officials working without a paycheck, a few words of advice for the president’s next move at shuttered government agencies: lock the doors, sell the furniture, and cut them down. Federal employees are starting to feel the strain of the shutdown. I am one of them. But for the sake of our nation, I hope it lasts a very long time, till the government is changed and can never return to its previous form. The lapse in appropriations is more than a battle over a wall. It is an opportunity to strip wasteful government agencies for good. On an average day, roughly 15 percent of the employees around me are exceptional patriots serving their country. I wish I could give competitive salaries to them and no one else. But 80 percent feel no pressure to produce results. If they don’t feel like doing what they are told, they don’t. Why would they? We can’t fire them. They avoid attention, plan their weekend, schedule vacation, their second job, their next position — some do this in the same position for more than a decade. They do nothing that warrants punishment and nothing of external value. That is their workday: errands for the sake of errands — administering, refining, following and collaborating on process. “Process is your friend” is what delusional civil servants tell themselves. Even senior officials must gain approval from every rank across their department, other agencies and work units for basic administrative chores. Process is what we serve, process keeps us safe, process is our core value. It takes a lot of people to maintain the process. Process provides jobs. In fact, there are process experts and certified process managers who protect the process. Then there are the 5 percent with moxie (career managers). At any given time they can change, clarify or add to the process — even to distort or block policy counsel for the president. Saboteurs peddling opinion as research, tasking their staff on pet projects or pitching wasteful grants to their friends. Most of my career colleagues actively work against the president’s agenda. This means I typically spend about 15 percent of my time on the president’s agenda and 85 percent of my time trying to stop sabotage, and we have no power to get rid of them. Until the shutdown.

Nancy Pelosi to Trump: Reschedule State of the Union or just submit it in writing - House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, citing the government shutdown,urged President Donald Trump in a letter Wednesday to either reschedule his upcoming State of the Union address or to deliver it in writing to Congress."He can make it from the Oval Office if he wants," Pelosi, D-California, later told reporters.In her letter to the president, Pelosi noted "security concerns" related to the partial shutdown's effect on the U.S. Secret Service, which is reponsible for security for the president's annual in-person address to a joint session of Congress.That speech, which is nationally televised, currently is scheduled for Jan. 29."Both the U.S. Secret Service and the Department of Homeland Security have not been funded for 26 days now — with critical departments hamstrung by furloughs," wrote Pelosi."And since the start of modern budgeting in Fiscal Year 1977, a State of the Union address has never been delivered during a government shutdown," wrote the speaker, who also cited historical precedent for nearly all presidents delivering their address in writing prior to the early 20th Century."Sadly, given the security concerns and unless the government re-opens this week, I suggest that we work together to determine another suitable date after government has re-opened for this address or for your to consider delivering your State of the Union address in writing to Congress on January 29th." Hours after Pelosi's letter became public, Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen wrote in a tweet: "The Department of Homeland Security are fully prepared to support and secure the State of the Union."

Pelosi pulls State of the Union surprise on Trump - Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) dramatically raised the stakes in the drag-out shutdown fight on Wednesday, asking President Trump to postpone his Jan. 29 State of the Union address unless the government is reopened by week’s end.The surprise step, made in a letter to Trump coated in legislative speak, represented a significant power move by Pelosi, who has just begun her second stint as Speaker.Pelosi warned that staging the speech amid the partial shutdown — which has affected both the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and Secret Service — creates security risks for the host of national policymakers and powerbrokers expected to be in attendance.“Sadly, given the security concerns and unless government reopens this week, I suggest that we work together to determine another suitable date after government has reopened for this address or for you to consider delivering your State of the Union address in writing to the Congress on Jan. 29,” Pelosi wrote.  Pelosi did not threaten to rescind Trump’s invitation, but she alone controls the lower chamber, and the short timeline she established for ending the shutdown suggests she could take that step by the weekend.

Trump fires back at Pelosi, cancels her foreign travel -- President Trump on Thursday hit back at Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) for warning she may postpone the State of the Union address by scrapping her planned trip overseas. In a letter to Pelosi, Trump told her that a congressional delegation trip she intended to take to Brussels, Egypt and Afghanistan, which he dismissed as a “public relations event,” is now “postponed.” “We will reschedule this seven-day excursion when the shutdown is over,” Trump wrote. “I also feel that, during this period, it would be better if you were in Washington negotiating with me and joining the Strong Border Security movement to end the shutdown.” The announcement means that Trump will refuse to provide military transportation for lawmakers to make the journey, which would have included a stop in a war zone, according to the White House. Trump added, however, if Pelosi wanted to go ahead by flying commercial, “that would certainly be your prerogative.” 

Graham criticizes Trump canceling Pelosi trip as 'inappropriate’ -- Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) criticized President Trump on Thursday for canceling House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) overseas visit to troops in Afghanistan, calling the move “inappropriate.” Graham also criticized Pelosi for “playing politics with the State of the Union.” Pelosi on Wednesday sent a letter to Trump requesting that he agree to postpone the Jan. 29 address or deliver it in writing if the partial government shutdown has not ended. The South Carolina Republican, an ally of Trump's who has also criticized the president from time to time, called on both Trump and Pelosi to “find the same desire to work for common goals as those who serve our nation in uniform and other capacities.” Trump in a letter to Pelosi on Thursday wrote that he was canceling a trip she and other lawmakers were set to take to Brussels, Egypt and Afghanistan. Trump wrote that Pelosi should remain in Washington to negotiate with him on the shutdown, which is now in its 27th day. The letter was Trump’s first response to Pelosi’s proposal to postpone the State of the Union address. Trump’s letter canceling the trip suggests he will refuse to provide military transportation for the congressional trip, which would have included a stop in a war zone.

The US political crisis reaches fever pitch -The political battle within the US ruling elite is reaching a new peak of intensity, with an ongoing media campaign portraying Trump as a Russian agent, Democratic Party demands to cancel the State of the Union address, and Trump’s response Thursday afternoon, blocking a planned foreign trip by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi that would have included a visit to US troops in Afghanistan. While the anti-Russian campaign against Trump escalates, spearheaded by the New York Times and the Washington Post, with nearly daily “exposés” depicting Trump as a puppet of Vladimir Putin, Trump answered with a fascistic rant against the supposed “radical left” takeover of the Democratic Party, delivered to a military audience at the Pentagon. “The party has been hijacked by the open borders fringe,” he claimed. The mutual vilification takes place under conditions of a partial shutdown of the federal government that will reach the one-month mark next Tuesday, with 800,000 federal workers going without paychecks. More than 300,000 are furloughed and nearly 500,000 are forced to work without pay. The United States has clearly entered into a major political crisis, which cannot be reduced to the personalities involved, or the seeming accident of Trump’s presidency. Like any significant political phenomenon, this crisis has deeper socioeconomic and material roots, which have produced an unprecedented degree of dysfunction in the US political system and disorientation in the ruling elite.

Top Democrat says Pelosi’s Afghanistan delegation was to reassure NATO allies Trump wouldn’t abandon them -- President Donald Trump harmed efforts by Congressional leaders to shore up the NATO by cancelling Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s congressional delegation trip, the chair of the House Intelligence Committee explained on Thursday. Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) chairs the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence spoke to reporters after Trump cancelled the congressional delegation trip. SPONSORED Schiff said the whether the government was open or closed, the work of Congress must go on. “And I think it’s vitally important now in particular that the president announced withdrawals from Syria and Afghanistan that we understand the situation on the ground,” Schiff said. “We had anticipated important defense and intelligence briefings in Afghanistan.” “We were looking forward to the opportunity to reassure NATO allies undoubtedly shaken by reports that the president has questioned his staff or opined about leaving NATO,” he explained. “We’re determined to make sure our allies understand — on a very bipartisan basis — our commitment to NATO is strong.” “We think this is completely inappropriate action,” he added. “It’s just too important that we make sure that our service members have what they need and that our NATO allies are reassured of the time where there are increasing questions about the president’s commitment to our alliances,” Schiff said. 

Shutdown shrinks as thousands more employees called in to work without pay  - Thousands of aviation safety inspectors and hundreds of food, drug and medical inspectors are heading back to work without pay — and so will tens of thousands of Internal Revenue Service employees if the government shutdown is still in place when tax season begins Jan. 28. In addition, the Interior Department is bringing back dozens of furloughed employees to work on selling oil and gas drilling leases in the Gulf of Mexico — key to President Donald Trump's priority of promoting U.S. fossil fuel production. Meanwhile, the Environmental Protection Agency has recalled dozens of employees, according to its revised shutdown plan, days after Senate Democrats questioned how the shuttered EPA could justify making workers prepare acting Administrator Andrew Wheeler for his confirmation hearing Wednesday. And the Department of Housing and Urban Development said it is bringing back an undefined number of "additional intermittent employees as needed." The recalls come as federal agencies cope with the 25-day-long impasse by expanding the types of duties they consider essential, including tasks that have fueled public relations nightmares for agencies in charge of health and safety.  Details on some recalls were hard to come by Tuesday — because agencies had furloughed most of their spokespeople. But these are among the agencies adding to their rosters of on-duty workers even as the shutdown shows no signs of ending:  More than 3,800 additional FAA employees are back at work compared with when the shutdown started in December, according to an updated Department of Transportation document published Tuesday. The move comes after union leaders complained that furloughs of inspectors had left the airlines "self-regulating," a trend they said would eventually compromise public safety.

Trump Orders Thousands Back to Work Without Pay to Blunt Shutdown Disruption - The Trump administration has ordered thousands of furloughed federal employees back to work without pay to inspect planes, issue tax refunds, monitor food safety and facilitate the sale of offshore oil drilling rights.The efforts in recent days illustrate how President Donald Trump is trying to limit the impact of the partial government shutdown and shield favored industries as the funding impasse thwarts the deployment of new aircraft, stock offerings and even craft beers. The Obama administration took the opposite approach in 2013 by erecting barricades around open-air monuments and largely closing national parks -- then leveraging public anger to blame Republicans for halted government services.  Critics say the Trump administration is skirting federal law by continuing some functions amid the political stalemate between congressional Democrats and Trump over whether to fund a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border. A 149-year-old law bars agencies from spending money Congress hasn’t given to them, with only limited exceptions for “emergencies involving the safety of human life or the protection of property.”  “This administration is being creative in its ability to break the law and test the boundaries,” said Sam Berger, a senior adviser at the Center for American Progress who worked at the Office of Management and Budget under former President Barack Obama. “They are really walking up to and past that line,” Berger said. “It’s clear they are making political calls, and they aren’t letting decisions be dictated by sound management, by the law or by really anything other than the next 10 minutes of news coverage and how they can win the day.”

Federal judge sides with Trump, allowing workers to go unpaid during shutdown -A federal judge declined to stop the Trump administration from requiring government employees to work without pay during the shutdown, rejecting the arguments of two federal unions and other individual federal employees. In a hearing Tuesday, District Judge Richard J. Leon refused to grant temporary restraining orders requested the National Treasury Employees Union, the National Air Traffic Controllers Association, and a group of individual federal employees. The unions argued that the government could not force employees deemed “essential” to work without pay during the shutdown.Lean declined to grant the orders, saying they would “create chaos and confusion” in an already fraught environment. “It’s hard not to empathize with the plaintiffs,” Leon said, adding that “the judiciary is not, and will not, be leverage in the internal struggle between the branches of government.” NTEU argued that the government may not make employees work without pay except in cases of “imminent threat to human life or property,” as defined in the post-Civil War Antideficiency Act. To do so, the lawsuit said, amounted to the executive branch spending money that hadn’t been appropriated by Congress.

US federal judge upholds compulsory unpaid labor during government shutdown --A US district court judge Tuesday denied requests to put an end to the compulsory unpaid labor of workers affected by the partial government shutdown. At least 420,000 federal employees have been required to work, despite the lack of funding for multiple government agencies since December 22. Another 380,000 have been furloughed. All 800,000 have missed paychecks.Judge Richard Leon declared in his ruling that meeting the most basic demand of workers—to be compensated for their labor—would be “profoundly irresponsible.” He continued, “at best it would create chaos, at worst it could be catastrophic... I'm not going to put people's lives at risk.”Yet that is precisely what the shutdown has meant for many federal employees and contractors, as well as those who depend on services provided by furloughed workers. As the 26-day shutdown drags on, workers are being forced to skip meals, to ration medical care, to choose which necessities to pay for and which to forgo.Arguing the case on behalf of the National Air Traffic Controllers Association (NATCA), Molly Elkin said Tuesday, “We need you, judge, to give this workforce hope that at least one branch of the American government has their back.” Leon did not oblige.Under conditions where President Donald Trump has warned that the shutdown could go on for months or years, the ruling is a  sharp rebuke of constitutional norms embodied in the 13th amendment, which prohibits slavery and indentured servitude.

Native American organizations denounce government shutdown as an abrogation of treaties - On January 10, eight organizations—the National Congress of American Indians, Native American Contractors Association, National Indian Health Board, National Council on Urban Indian Health, National Indian Education Association, National American Indian Housing Association, National Indian Child Welfare Association, and the Self Governance Communication and Education Tribal Consortium—sent a joint letter to President Donald Trump and to the Congress calling for an immediate end to the shutdown of the federal government. Citing the trust relationship between the federal government and the tribal nations, the letter calls the shutdown an abrogation of the US’ treaties with Indian Nations.The letter outlined the wide-ranging impacts the shutdown is having upon the Native American population, approximately 3 million people, and underscores the fact that the closure of services for Native Americans effectively violates the trust relationship between the federal government and Indian tribes and abrogates the terms of the government’s treaties with native tribes.The economic effects that the shutdown has had upon Native Americans have already been vast. The prolonged furlough of Bureau of Indian Affairs (BIA) and Indian Health Services (HIS) employees, many of whom are members of tribal nations, affects more than just the individual employees. Dependents of federal employees are also impacted by the inability to pay for health insurance, housing, or food, and the social safety nets such as Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and Medicaid are also constrained by the shutdown.  A winter storm earlier in January saw members of the Navajo Nation, which spans three different states, trapped inside of their homes for days by snow. BIA employees were furloughed during the winter storm; roads were finally cleared by unpaid employees.

Ocasio-Cortez chased McConnell around Capitol as shutdown drags on — Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell had four freshman congresswomen chasing him all around the Capitol Wednesday, including New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.But the GOP leader evaded the new Democratic reps who visited his Capitol office, cloakroom, Senate floor and then took the subway to another office building suite.“He seems to be running away from us,” said Ocasio-Cortez, 29, the youngest female member of Congress in history who represents parts of the Bronx and Queens.She was joined by Reps. Jahana Hayes of Connecticut, Lauren Underwood of Illinois and Katie Hill of California, who said they represent an activist freshman class who won’t sit still as the record-breaking partial government shutdown continues.They are frustrated the House has passed multiple bills to reopen the government for some 800,000 unpaid federal workers, but the Senate has refused to take them up.“At this point, the only thing left is for us to make noise and that’s exactly what we’re doing,” Hill said after they dropped off a letter signed by 38 House freshmen to McConnell’s office asking him to call a vote. “Eight-hundred thousand people don’t have their paychecks,” Ocasio-Cortez added. “So where’s Mitch?”

Senate GOP blocks bill to reopen Homeland Security -- Senate Republicans blocked legislation on Friday that would have temporarily reopened the Department of Homeland Security.Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) asked to take up a House-passed bill that would fund the department through Feb. 8. It's the third time Democrats have tried to bring up the stopgap measure.But Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) objected to the request "on behalf of the majority leader," referring to Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.).It's the third time McConnell has blocked the bill to temporarily reopen DHS, which is at the center of the shutdown fight. He's also blocked a bill that would reopen the rest of impacted department and agencies three times, most recently on Thursday. McConnell warned for weeks that he will not let the Senate take up any government funding bill that isn't the product of a deal between congressional Democrats and Trump, arguing they would amount to "show votes.""There's no way around it. Having show votes in the Senate doesn't solve the problem," McConnell told reporters on Tuesday.  But Democrats are trying to build pressure on the Senate GOP leader, who has remained publicly on the sidelines amid the stalemate between Trump and Democrats."Senate Republicans again in a few minutes, at the request of President Trump, who does not yet want this to happen, will object to that request," Kaine said on Friday before he tried to pass the DHS bill. "If the issue in dispute is border security … then why punish the very people who are providing that safety and security? How does it help promote safety and security to not pay the very border patrol agents charged with protecting the border?" Kaine asked.

Unpaid TSA agents, no longer giving a fuck, play uncensored rap music in airports -- Because Donald Trump refuses to abandon plans for his xenophobic border wall, the US has entered day 25 of the partial government shutdown — officially the longest shutdown in the country’s history. As a result, hundreds of thousands of federal workers continue to go unpaid.Airports have been especially hit hard by the shutdown, as many employees have called out sick, unwilling to put in time for zero pay. Those that have shown up… well, let’s just say they’ve been making the best of their situations: In recent weeks, passengers at New York’s JFK airport have reported hearing TSA agents blast explicit, uncensored versions of rap songs over the loudspeakers. As Business Insider points out, “Sicko Mode” by Travis Scott and Drake has been prominently heard, as has “Lift Yourself”, the “musical poop joke” song from Kanye West. Other tracks from Beastie Boys and Ludacris have also apparently been in rotation.“We’re living in a simulation,” one passenger tweeted. Another said they felt like they were “in the Twilight Zone” after noticing “Sicko Mode” echoing through JFK.No one really wants to be at the airport, passengers and now TSA agents included, but at least they don’t have to hear the same Kenny G and Nickelback songs over and over. Check out some firsthand reactions to the TSA agents’ new playlists.

90 (and counting) very real direct effects of the partial government shutdown - Here is a list from CNN reporting and other news outlets of the ways, large and small, that the partial government shutdown is affecting Americans nationwide. If there's something we should add or a story we should tell, please let us know.

Reliable data is one of the many victims of the government shutdown --EPI Blog --One of the many things we rely on the federal government for is timely, accurate, independent, and publicly available data that is used by households, businesses, and policymakers to make informed economic decisions. Of the many negative effects of the government shutdown, there have been some “data casualties,” including the release of Current Population Survey (CPS) public microdata files. These files are the source data for monthly reports on the unemployment and labor force participation rates, key timely barometers of the nation’s economic health. This microdata also forms the basis of much of the research that EPI and other research organizations and academics conduct. EPI urges the president to end the government shutdown so that federal employees and contractors can receive their paychecks again, researchers at EPI and elsewhere can continue to provide current economic analysis, businesses and households can make economic plans with fuller information, and the new Congress can make well-researched policy choices.

Trump’s Shutdown Is a Savage Assault on the Working Class - The United States government's partial shutdown is now in its fourth week, and shows no sign of abating. Donald Trump has decided that his demand for a border wall—which he initially promised Mexico would pay for—is worthy of halting or reducing essential services like food inspections and airport security, with TSA workers calling in sick in droves as they face the prospect of work without pay. Meanwhile, the real human cost of the shutdown is falling primarily on people who work for a living: the 800,000 federal employees who are forgoing paychecks until Congress and Trump reopen the government, and the private-sector contractors who will likely not see backpay even after this disruption is over. Compared to the rest of America, a disproportionate share of federal workers (over a quarter) are union members, some of whom do not have the resources to go for weeks without a paycheck. They are not the rich men Trump has dined over well-done steak with or played bad golf with or watched a college football game with. They do not enjoy memberships at the Mar-a-Lago club or live in condos paid for by Russian oligarchs in Manhattan. They do not have the aura of wealth—and many surely lack the Ivy League pedigree—Trump craves. The president, who has a long, outrageous record of straight-up not paying people who worked for him, is doing the same thing to hundreds of thousands of public-sector employees and demonstrating the same lack of empathy on which he built his brand. Trump has dismissed the unpaid workers as "Democrats" and shared an anonymous op-ed by a senior administration official complaining federal workers were lazy or even "saboteurs"; the White House's chief economic adviser said that they were "better off" in some ways because they didn't have to use vacation days over the holidays. For context, those are the same workers who may currently be bartering with their landlords for a break on rent or showing up at the local food bank for sustenance.

Trump’s Version of ‘Let Them Eat Cake’ – Bill Black - Queen Marie-Antoinette of France was libeled by the claim that when she was told that her starving peasants could no longer find bread to eat, she responded “then let them eat cake.”  There is no evidence she said any such thing.Trump, however, really said the modern equivalent.  His remarks, despite being made in response to a question about his empathy for government workers losing their pay due to the government shutdown, revealed how bereft of human understanding our autocrat-in-chief is.

• “Mr. President, do you relate to the pain of federal workers who can’t pay their bills?” a reporter asked.
• “I can relate,” Trump said. “And I’m sure that the people that are on the receiving end will make adjustments. They always do. And they’ll make adjustments.”

Yes, when you suddenly lose your sole source of meaningful income you “always” “make adjustments.”  That was the point her libelers portrayed the Queen as making – the peasants will adjust to their inability to buy bread by buying cake (or brioche).  The goal of the libel was to picture the rich and powerful as being so blind to the life of the poor that they cannot imagine a real economic problem.  Even when the media asked Trump about empathy and responded that he did empathize, his next sentence demonstrated his lack of understanding and empathy.  Trump’s life is one without painful adjustments.  He thinks the same is true of federal workers.  Forty percent of Americans, however, cannot suffer a $400 shock (an unexpected expense or loss of income) without facing a crisis in which they have to sell assets or borrow money to avoid default.  The “adjustments” that normal federal workers have to make when they suffer a lost income shock that is already about three times more severe than $400 – are dramatically more painful to federal worker families.  There is no end in sight to Trump’s shutdown of the federal government, so the ‘adjustments’ will soon include selling cars, losing the home, and missing the ability to cover the application fees to get your kid into college. Our next big chance to “make adjustments” comes in a little less than two years.

Trump Cancels Davos Delegation Amid Shutdown - President Trump on Thursday scrapped a scheduled delegation to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, citing the partial government shutdown.  Several cabinet officials were slated to attend the trip headed up by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, including Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Deputy Chiief of Staff Chris Liddell. "Out of consideration for the 800,000 great American workers not receiving pay and to ensure his team can assist as needed, President Trump has canceled his delegation’s trip to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland," White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said in a statement.Earlier Thursday, President Trump nixed Nancy Pelosi's planned overseas trip to Afghanistan and other countries by refusing to provide military transportation for her delegation. The move came after the Democratic Speaker of the House "disinvited" Trump from giving the State of the Union address later this month.The Davos cancellation follows an initial scaling back of the US delegation to the gathering of political elites which will run from Jan. 22-25. Earlier Thursday, House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff (D-CA) questioned why the Speaker's trip was canceled while the Davos trip was still on the schedule.  "The president's concern about [a trip] into a war zone apparently doesn't apply to a delegation from the administration going to Davis the following week. Because we got confirmation that is still planned," said Schiff, who added that President Trump is acting "like he's in the 5th grade." 

State Department calls diplomats back to work with pay for at least two weeks after juggling funds from other accounts - The State Department is calling back its furloughed diplomats next week after finding enough money to meet payroll to cover two weeks, but the 8,000 returning employees will still have to wait to get their retroactive pay, officials said Thursday. The decision to recall diplomats was announced by Deputy Secretary of State John Sullivan during a luncheon for more than 180 ambassadors attending an annual conference. He received what one official described as two “rousing” rounds of applause. Officials said a review of the State Department’s payroll accounts came up with enough money to meet one 15-day pay period. Beyond that, officials cautioned, they will have to see whether they can identify funds from other accounts that can be tapped should the shutdown extend beyond that. That would require the consent of Congress, however. In a letter to Congress late Thursday, the State Department said it intends to “reprogram and transfer resources to fund payroll” if the shutdown drags on, leading to questions from lawmakers. “All furloughed and unpaid federal employees and their families are suffering terribly,” Sen. Patrick J. Leahy (D-Vt.), vice chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee, said in a statement to The Washington Post. “It isn’t just the State Department, and it isn’t right to cherry pick agencies this way. “Rather than shift funds away from the purposes for which the Congress appropriated them, the Senate Republican Leader should bring up the bipartisan appropriations bills that would pass easily, and urge the President to sign them. If he does, we can reopen the government tomorrow.” 

Trump Meets With Senior White House Officials About Infrastructure Plan - President Trump's battle with the Democratic leadership over funding for his border wall has been perhaps the most rancorous political fight since the dawn of his administration - eclipsing even the contentious confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh. And though the government remains shut down with no accord in sight, the president and a coterie of his senior advisors are already planning to revive their push for Trump's promised infrastructure package - one of the few issues where Democrats and Republicans are expected to find a measure of comity. According to a Reuters report about the meeting - which the White House confirmed did indeed happen, though it refused to comment on the details - the president is preparing to revive his push for a 13-year infrastructure spending spree, and whether to include details about the broad strokes during Trump's State of the Union address later this month. The plan is expected to focus on revitalizing US airports, highways, railroads and other essential infrastructure. Roughly 20 senior officials participated in the two-hour-plus meeting, including Vice President Mike Pence, Ivanka Trump and acting chief of staff Mick Mulvaney. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao were also in attendance. The meeting apparently didn't yield much in terms of an agreement on a unified plan, but some of the details discussed included: 

• How to incorporate funding for a next-generation wireless network, known as 5G, and how to potentially use the plan to modernize the U.S. air traffic control system.
• Various options for paying for the infrastructure plan, though the administration didn't settle on anything. As part of a plan floated last year that was rejected by the Democrats, Trump had proposed a $200 billion federal spend that would be used a springboard to attract a total of $1.5 trillion in funding (some would be paid by municipalities and states, some by private sources).
• Different issues that should be addressed by the 13-year time frame.
• How much, if any, of last year's plan to incorporate in the new proposal.

Trump expected to pitch immigration deal to end funding stalemate -  President Trump is expected to use his address Saturday afternoon to propose an immigration deal as part of a plan to secure border wall funding and reopen the federal government, according to multiple reports. Axios and CNN reported that Trump is likely to offer passing the BRIDGE Act, which would extend protections for Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program recipients, as well as legislation extending the legal status of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) holders in exchange for his requested $5.7 billion in border security funding. Vice President Pence and White House adviser Jared Kushner led the formation of the proposed deal, according to Axios. The White House did not immediately respond to The Hill's request for comment on Saturday. Trump has teased a "major announcement" on Saturday afternoon as the White House and congressional Democrats remain dug in over the shutdown, which hit the 29-day mark on Saturday. In a sign that Trump's proposal is unlikely to break the weeks-long shutdown logjam, Democrats preemptively panned the offer and noted the White House hadn't reached out to them ahead of time.

Bolton Had Pentagon Draw Up "Far-Reaching Military Options To Strike Iran" The Wall Street Journal published an Iran bombshell Sunday  morning, confirming the White House had the Pentagon prepare "military options" to strike the country last year. The sudden request, seen as an unprecedented Iraq-style "shock and awe" attack on Iran, caught the Pentagon off guard, to the point that "State Dept. and Pentagon officials were rattled by the request" which officials further told the WSJ was "mind-boggling" and "cavalier" in terms of how brazen it was. The request for military options came in early September after the United States accused Iran-backed militias in Iraq of firing three mortars at the US Embassy and diplomatic compound in Baghdad, and at a time that riots and political instability were spreading throughout some major cities in Iraq, especially in the south. It was also an opportunity for noted Iran hawk and national security advisor John Bolton to push for "far-reaching military options to strike Iran" — a regime change project he's pushed in public many years prior to taking his White House post last April. The WSJ reports: The request, which hasn’t been previously reported, came after militants fired three mortars into Baghdad’s sprawling diplomatic quarter, home to the U.S. Embassy, on a warm night in early September. The shells—launched by a group aligned with Iran—landed in an open lot and harmed no one.But they triggered unusual alarm in Washington, where Mr. Trump’s national security team led by John Bolton conducted a series of meetings to discuss a forceful American response, including what many saw as the unusual request for options to strike Iran.Though it's unclear if the strike options ended up on President Trump's desk following the formal request from the National Security Council, or if they were ever seriously considered by the White House, “It definitely rattled people,” one former senior U.S. administration official described. “People were shocked. It was mind-boggling how cavalier they were about hitting Iran,” the source said.

‘A Reckless Advocate of Military Force’: Demands for John Bolton’s Dismissal After Reports He Asked Pentagon for Options to Strike Iran --Reminding the world that he is, as one critic put it, “a reckless advocate of military force,” the Wall Street Journal revealed on Sunday that President Donald Trump’s National Security Adviser John Bolton “asked the Pentagon to provide the White House with military options to strike Iran last year, generating concern at the Pentagon and State Department.”“It definitely rattled people,” a former U.S. official said of the request, which Bolton supposedly made after militants aligned with Iran fired mortars into the diplomatic quarter of Baghdad, Iraq that contains the U.S. Embassy in early September. “People were shocked. It was mind-boggling how cavalier they were about hitting Iran.”“The Pentagon complied with the National Security Council’s request to develop options for striking Iran,” the Journal reported, citing unnamed officials. “But it isn’t clear if the proposals were provided to the White House, whether Mr. Trump knew of the request, or whether serious plans for a U.S. strike against Iran took shape at that time.”The Journal‘s report, which comes just days after Secretary of State Mike Pompeo delivered an “arrogant tirade” of a speech vilifying Iran, sparked immediate alarm among critics of the Trump administration’s biggest warmongers—who, over the past several months, have been accused of fomenting unrest in Iran and laying the groundwork for war. Daniel W. Drezner, a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, called the news “a reminder that when it comes to Iran, John Bolton and Mike Pompeo are batshit insane.”

Trump’s Risking Financial Disaster for America -  President Donald Trump’s Iran policy has been reckless as regards Iran—it all but invites Tehran to return to an unconstrained nuclear program, and it reduces U.S. credibility to bargain on other contentious issues. But it has been far more reckless on the far more consequential matter of America’s relationships with allies and partners and especially the U.S.’s central role in the world financial system. Iran can be a problem, but it is not worth gambling the economic and political benefits the U.S. receives as the world’s banker.The administration now has an opportunity—maybe its best remaining opportunity—to minimize the risk to U.S. financial centrality.The European Union is inching closer to establishing a new financial mechanism to facilitate trade with Iran despite tightening U.S. sanctions. The EU is likely to make announcements this month, tied to the third anniversary of the nuclear deal’s full implementation in January 2016.  This is a severe risk for U.S. financial dominance over the mid- to long term. It opens up the possibility of Europe developing a banking infrastructure that does not run through New York, threatening the tremendous influence the U.S. enjoys as the global backbone for even simple banking operations. If the Trump administration perceives and responds to this danger, it can reduce the risk with minimal changes to its “maximum pressure” approach to Iran.

Trump Threatens To "Devastate Turkey Economically" If Kurds Attacked, Sends Lira Sliding - In the fiercest words directed at Turkey in a long time, and certainly since Trump and Erdogan managed to patch up the rocky diplomatic relationship between the two nations over the fate of (since released) Pastor Brunson, President Trump on Sunday evening put President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on notice, threatening to "devastate Turkey economically if they hit Kurds" — which has sent the Turkish lira sliding.  Trump further confirmed in no uncertain terms that his announced "long overdue" troop pullout from Syria has begun, but that it's been initiated while "hitting the little remaining ISIS territorial caliphate hard" and "from many directions".Starting the long overdue pullout from Syria while hitting the little remaining ISIS territorial caliphate hard, and from many directions. Will attack again from existing nearby base if it reforms. Will devastate Turkey economically if they hit Kurds. Create 20 mile safe zone.... — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 13, 2019 The warning to Turkey came as Ankara has mustered military forces, including tank regiments, along the Syrian border and deep in Afrin after last year's 'Operation Olive Branch' plunged pro-Turkish forces accross the border inside Syrian Kurdish enclaves. Last week Turkey's leaders, including the defense minister, described preparations underway for another major Turkish assault on US-backed Kurdish positions east of the Euphrates, following the exit of American advisers based on Trump's previously announced pullout. But it appears Trump is now putting Ankara on notice, and is prepared to thwart any Turkish invasion plans by establishing a "20 mile safe zone". Presumably this "safe zone" will be towards protecting American forces while precise exit logistics take shape, and will occur simultaneously to the US pounding remnant ISIS positions; however the details remain uncertain.  Trump followed his tweet threatening to "devastate Turkey economically" if the Kurds are hit, with another repeat promise to "stop the endless wars!" — in what appears a further sign he's currently in a fight with the deep state and hawks within his own administration over Syria policy.

Turkey Dismisses Trump's Threat To Devastate Economy Over Kurds - Turkey has brushed off a Sunday threat by President Trump to "devastate" them economically if they attack the Kurdish militia (YPG) in northern Syria, which US forces have fought alongside against the Islamic State (IS). Turkey regards the YPG as terrorists. Starting the long overdue pullout from Syria while hitting the little remaining ISIS territorial caliphate hard, and from many directions. Will attack again from existing nearby base if it reforms. Will devastate Turkey economically if they hit Kurds. Create 20 mile safe zone....— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 13, 2019   "You cannot get anywhere by threatening Turkey economically," said Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu.  Trump announced in December that the US would withdraw all troops from Syria as the Islamic State had been "defeated," a move which shocked allies and resulted in the resignation of Defense Secretary Jim Mattis. Concerns remain that Kurds from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which are are under YPG leadership, would fall under attack by Turkey once the US withdraws.

US ratchets up threats against Iran, Turkey amid Syria withdrawal plans ---In the midst of a tour by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, ostensibly aimed at reassuring Washington’s Middle East allies in the wake of President Donald Trump’s announced decision to withdraw US troops from Syria, a series of US actions have escalated tensions, posing the threat of a far wider war in the region.  Pompeo has used his trip to eight countries—seven monarchies and the police-state dictatorship of Gen. Sisi in Egypt—to make clear, as he put it over the weekend, that the Syria withdrawal is merely a change in tactics, while US strategy for asserting imperialist domination over the Middle East remains unchanged. “The fact that a couple thousand uniformed personnel in Syria will be withdrawing is a tactical change. It doesn’t materially alter our capacity to perform military actions we need to perform,” Pompeo told reporters traveling with him during a stop in the United Arab Emirates on Sunday. In an interview with CBS’s “Face the Nation,” Pompeo insisted that the absence of US troops in Syria would halt neither the US attacks on ISIS nor its military pressure on Iran. “Those are the real missions,” he said. “The tactical changes we’ve made and the withdrawal of those 2,000 troops is just that—a tactical change. Mission remains the same.”

NYT Laments U.S. Disengagement Even As There Is None - On its frontpage the New York Times delivers an utterly deranged 'News Analysis' of the possible end of the illegal occupation of east Syria by the United States military: As U.S. Exits Syria, Mideast Faces a Post-American EraWhen Turkey, Iran and Russia meet to talk about the end of the war in Syria, they do so without the United States. Peace talks to solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict have been frozen for years, but the long-awaited Trump plan to break the impasse has yet to arrive.And now, despite conflicting messages about how and when it will happen, the United States is set to withdraw from Syria.The withdrawal, which the military said began with equipment removal on Friday, is just the latest instance of a broader American disengagement from the Middle East that could have lasting effects on one of the world’s most volatile regions.The U.S. has not, and likely will not, "disengage" from the Middle East. Its military has some 53,000 soldiers stationed in at last 27 bases in 12 Middle Eastern countries (not counting those in Syria). Besides the troops there are a large number of civil personal supporting or replacing them:As of July 2018 – again, excluding Afghanistan – there were 22,323 Pentagon contractors working in the CENTCOM area of operations in the Middle East including 9,762 US citizens, 12,020 third-country nationals and 541 host-country nationals. This represents a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in Pentagon contractors utilized in the region. The deployment of contractors to fulfill missions that 15 to 20 years ago would have been conducted by US troops gives the impression of a smaller American military footprint in the region.The U.S. has large economic interests in the Middle East. The U.S. weapon sales in the region add up to more t han $5 billion per year. Some 17% of U.S. oil imports, 1.75 million barrels per day, come from the Middle East. The control of the hydrocarbon fuels found in the Middle East is the official reason the U.S. imposes itself over the region. That will not change.

War Whores Scramble to Say Syria Attack Means US Troops Must Remain - Caitlin Johnstone — A suicide bombing in Manbij, Syria has reportedly killed 19 people including four Americans, two of whom were US soldiers and two of whom worked with the US military. ISIS, which has an extensive history of falsely claiming responsibility for attacks it had nothing to do with, has claimed responsibilityfor the attack. Despite the fact that ISIS would claim responsibility for a housewife stepping on a Lego block, and despite the complete absence of evidence that it had anything to do with the deadly explosion, all the usual cheerleaders of endless war are pointing to the Manbij suicide bombing and shrieking “See?? Trump said ISIS is defeated and it’s not!”“ISIS is still a very real threat here,” CNN international corespondent Clarissa Ward told Jake Tapper from northern Syria. “And the real concern that we are hearing over and over again on the ground, Jake, is that when US troops withdraw, a power vacuum is created, and that only gives them more strength.”Virulent Syria war pundit Charles Lister, who is notorious for praising Al Qaeda and is a senior fellow at the Gulf state-funded neoconservative think tank Middle East Institute, told AFP that this attack invalidates Donald Trump’s order last month to withdraw troops from Syria.“Trump’s order was reckless and driven far more by domestic political concerns than it was by facts on the ground,” Lister said, adding, “To suggest ISIS is ‘defeated’ because it no longer controls territory is to fundamentally misunderstand how ISIS and similar organizations seek to operate.” Former John McCain ventriloquism dummy Lindsey Graham pounced like a rat on a cheese doodle on the opportunity to call for continued US troop presence within hours of the attack, interrupting the confirmation hearing of Attorney General nominee William Barr with an ejaculation about Trump’s Syria withdrawal. “I would hope the President would look long and hard at where he’s headed in Syria,” Graham said after repeating the baseless claim that the attack was perpetrated by ISIS. “I know people are frustrated, but we’re never going to be safe here unless we’re willing to help people over there who will stand up against this radical ideology.”  Not to be left out when there are moronic war agendas to be sold, Fox News leapt into the fray with a quote from an anonymous foreign diplomat saying “This attack today is a direct result of the announcement made by President Trump that U.S. forces are pulling out. These troops had a bullseye on them when the president telegraphed that he was ordering a pullout.”

United States Doesn't Even Make Top 20 on Global Democracy Index - A new index released this week offers a sobering look at how democracy is faring in the United States.  According to the 2018 edition of The Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index, the U.S. doesn't even make the list of top 20—its demonstrably "flawed democracy" notching it the 25th spot.  The ranking is based on 60 indicators spanning five interrelated categories: electoral process and pluralism; civil liberties; the functioning of government; political participation; and political culture. Each category gets a 0-10 score, with the final score being the average of those five.  Topping out the index are Norway, Iceland, Sweden, New Zealand, and Denmark. They are each declared "full democracies," as their scores, all above 9.22, were easily above the 8.2 threshold. With a final score of 7.96, the United States, in contrast, earned the "flawed democracy" label. The country's highest score was 8.22, which it earned back in 2006 and again in 2008.  North America still holds the claim for the highest average score of any region, but that's thanks to Canada's 9.15, which landed it the number 6 spot overall. Twenty countries (12 percent) were designated as full democracies, 14 of which are located in Western Europe. Rounding out the bottom of the list, meanwhile, are Chad, the Central African Republican, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Syria, and North Korea, with scores identifying them as "authoritarian regimes."

Pompeo presses Saudis for accountability on Khashoggi murder - US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has told Saudi Arabia's king and crown prince that "every single person responsible" for the murder of Saudi writer Jamal Khashoggi needs to be held accountable. King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, also known as MBS, "both acknowledge that this accountability needs to take place", Pompeo said in Riyadh following talks with the two men on Monday. "They reiterated their commitment to achieving the objective, the expectations we set for them," Pompeo added. The secretary of state told reporters he had also raised a number of human rights issues with the king and MBS, including women's rights activists who have been detained for months and some allegedly tortured. Khashoggi, a longtime royal insider who had become a critic of Prince Mohammed, was killed in October in the kingdom's Istanbul consulate, prompting a global outcry, including treasury sanctions on 17 individuals and a US Senate resolution blaming MBS. US President Donald Trump and Pompeo, however, have so far been reluctant to directly implicate the royal or issue any punitive measures. A CIA assessment has blamed Prince Mohammed for ordering the killing, which Saudi officials deny. 

Pompeo and MBS agree on 'importance' of Yemen de-escalation - US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman have agreed on the importance of de-escalation in military operations in Yemen amid United Nations' peace efforts to end the conflict. "On #Yemen, agreed on need for continued de-escalation and adherence to Sweden agreements, especially cease-fire and redeployment in #Hudaydah," the US embassy in Riyadh tweeted on Monday after a meeting between Pompeo and Prince Mohammed. The Iranian-allied Houthi rebels and the Saudi-backed Yemeni government agreed during peace talks in Sweden in December on a ceasefire in Hodeidah and to withdraw troops from the strategic Red Sea port city.Pompeo is in Saudi Arabia on the latest leg of his regional tour, with the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi and the blockade of neighbouring Qatar expected to be high on the agenda. The top US diplomat arrived in the Saudi capital early on Monday, and is also set to meet King Salman bin Abdul Aziz. Pompeo met Qatari officials a day earlier in Doha, where he called for an end to the 19-month blockade of the Gulf state by a quartet of Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt, and the UAE.

Pompeo Calls For Regime Change In Venezuela After Illegitimate Maduro Re-election - While standing in a Gulf Arab capital on Saturday, continuing his eight day tour of the Middle East primarily to assure allies that the US hasn't "abandoned" to region to Iran with its impending Syria pullout, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo addressed another "pariah state" problem, but thousands of miles away in Latin America, ironically while standing in an "allied" Gulf autocratic sheikhdom. Speaking to reporters in the UAE capital of Abu Dhabi he spoke about regime change — this time not in the Middle East — but in Venezuela, another country under various forms of sanctions by the US for over a decade. In surprisingly provocative comments Pompeo threw the United States' full weight behind Venezuela's opposition seeking to depose President Nicolás Maduro, who days prior on Thursday was inaugurated for another, much-disputed six-year term, which many Western leaders have refused to recognize.  In some of the most unrestrained comments expressing future administration plans for the Maduro regime to date, Pompeo said the US would work with allied partners to restore democracy there. “The Maduro regime is illegitimate and the United States will work diligently to restore a real democracy to that country,” Pompeo said to reporters. “We are very hopeful we can be a force for good to allow the region to come together to deliver that.” His words followed on a previous State Department statement from earlier in the day expressing US support to the  head Venezuela's opposition-run congress, Juan Guaido, a day after he expressed willingness to step into the presidency temporarily to replace Maduro. "The people of Venezuela deserve to live in freedom in a democratic society governed by the rule of law," State Department spokesman Robert Palladino said.

 If America Stopped Destroying The World, The Bad Guys Might Win! - Cailtin Johnstone - Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told reporters on Saturday that the government under Venezuela’s recently re-inaugurated president Nicolas Maduro is “illegitimate”, and that “the United States will work diligently to restore a real democracy to that country.” Pompeo’s remarks, which were echoed by Trump’s National Security Advisor John Bolton, are interesting for a couple of reasons. The first is because Venezuela’s presidential election in May of last year (which incidentally was found to have been perfectly legitimate by the international Council of Electoral Experts of Latin America) was actively and aggressively meddled in by the US and its allies. The second is that while the US government is openly broadcasting its intention to keep interfering in Venezuela’s political system, it continues to scream bloody murder about alleged Russian interference in its own democratic process two years ago. What is the difference between the behavior of the United States, which remains far and away the single worst offender in foreign election meddlingon the planet, and what Russia is accused of having done in 2016? According to a comment made by former CIA Director James Woolsey last year, it’s that the US interferes in foreign democracies “for a very good cause.”And that’s really the only argument that empire loyalists have going for them on this subject. The US is different because the US has moral authority. It’s okay for the US to continue to interfere in the political affairs of foreign nations while it would be an unforgivable and outrageous “act of war” for a nation like Russia to do the exact same thing, because the US is countering the interests of the Bad Guys while Russia is countering the interests of the Good Guys. Who decided who the Good Guys and Bad Guys are in this argument? The US.This “What we do is good because we’re the Good Guys” faith-based doctrine was regurgitated with full-throated zealotry in a recent speech given by Pompeo in Cairo, in which he cited “America’s innate goodness” in making the absolutely ridiculous claim that “America is a force for good in the Middle East” which has been “absent too much” from the region previously. America’s nonstop deadly interventionism in the Middle East is “good”, because America is “innately good”.America’s constant military interventionism, election interference and other nastiness are painted as Good Things done by Good Guys to fight the Bad Guys. The argument, when you boil it right down, is that if America wasn’t constantly starting wars, invading sovereign nations, staging coups, sponsoring proxy conflicts, arming terrorists, bombing civilians, torturing people, implementing starvation sanctions on impoverished populations, pointing nuclear weapons everywhere, spying on us all with a globe-spanning Orwellian surveillance network, interfering in foreign elections, and patrolling the skies with flying death robots, the Bad Guys might win. Sort of makes you wonder who the Bad Guys really are, huh?

Amid stalled US-North Korean talks, second Trump-Kim summit mooted - Seven months after President Trump met North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Singapore, talks over the denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula remain stalled without a detailed agreement to implement the commitments made by both sides at the summit. Now a second Trump-Kim summit is being mooted. In his New Year address, Kim restated his “firm will” to denuclearise, saying that North Korea had “declared at home and abroad that we would neither make and test nuclear weapons any longer nor use and proliferate them.” Kim did, however, hint at growing frustration in Pyongyang over Washington’s refusal to ease sanctions on North Korea or to take steps towards the signing of a formal peace treaty to end the 1950–53 Korean War. Fighting in that devastating war ended with the signing of an armistice, but the state of war was not ended. The US has maintained North Korea’s diplomatic and economic isolation for more than six decades. Kim noted that North Korea had “taken various practical measures,” adding that if the US responded “with trustworthy measures and practical actions… bilateral relations will develop wonderfully at a fast pace.” Pyongyang has not only halted its nuclear and missile tests, but dismantled its nuclear test site and a key missile engine facility. In a thinly veiled warning, the North Korean leader declared that Pyongyang could be “compelled to explore a new path” if the US “seeks to force something upon us unilaterally and remains unchanged in its sanctions and pressure.” The US imposed additional sanctions on North Korean figures last month, provoking an angry reaction from Pyongyang.

White House- Second Trump-Kim summit coming next month - President Trump will meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un for their second summit at the end of February, the White House said Friday. The announcement came shortly after Trump met with Kim Yong Chol, the North Korean official leading denuclearization talks, in the Oval Office on Friday afternoon. “President Donald J. Trump met with Kim Yong Chol for an hour and half, to discuss denuclearization and a second summit, which will take place near the end of February. The President looks forward to meeting with Chairman Kim at a place to be announced at a later date,” White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said in a statement. The face-to-face meeting will be the first between Trump and Kim Jong Un since their landmark summit in June. It represents the Trump administration’s continued efforts to bring an end to North Korea’s nuclear program, one of the president’s major foreign policy priorities. Speculation has fallen on Vietnam as the potential location for the second summit amid reports of U.S. scouts visiting. Kim Yong Chol’s visit to Washington this week brought broad speculation that Washington and Pyongyang could set plans for a second summit. The White House did not announce until Friday that Trump would meet with the North Korean official, just before their face-to-face. Kim Jong Un and Trump’s first summit in June was the first between a sitting U.S. president and a North Korean leader. The Singapore summit ended with a joint declaration where North Korea and the U.S. agreed to work toward the “complete denuclearization of the Korean peninsula” in exchange for unspecified security guarantees. The document included no specifics on how denuclearization would be achieved, a fact seized upon by critics who said the summit was little more than a photo-op.

 Trump has concealed details of his face-to-face encounters with Putin from senior officials in administration - President Trump has gone to extraordinary lengths to conceal details of his conversations with Russian President Vladi­mir Putin, including on at least one occasion taking possession of the notes of his own interpreter and instructing the linguist not to discuss what had transpired with other administration officials, current and former U.S. officials said. Trump did so after a meeting with Putin in 2017 in Hamburg that was also attended by then-Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. U.S. officials learned of Trump’s actions when a White House adviser and a senior State Department official sought information from the interpreter beyond a readout shared by Tillerson. The constraints that Trump imposed are part of a broader pattern by the president of shielding his communications with Putin from public scrutiny and preventing even high-ranking officials in his own administration from fully knowing what he has told one of the United States’ main adversaries. As a result, U.S. officials said there is no detailed record, even in classified files, of Trump’s face-to-face interactions with the Russian leader at five locations over the past two years. Such a gap would be unusual in any presidency, let alone one that Russia sought to install through what U.S. intelligence agencies have described as an unprecedented campaign of election interference. Special counsel Robert S. Mueller III is thought to be in the final stages of an investigation that has focused largely on whether Trump or his associates conspired with Russia during the 2016 presidential campaign. The new details about Trump’s continued secrecy underscore the extent to which little is known about his communications with Putin since becoming president. After this story was published online, Trump said in an interview late Saturday with Fox News host Jeanine Pirro that he did not take particular steps to conceal his private meetings with Putin and attacked The Washington Post and its owner Jeffrey P. Bezos.

Fixated on collusion, Dems seeking (again) to subpoena interpreter present at Trump-Putin meeting - Convinced of collusion between the Trump campaign and Russian officials, Democrats want to subpoena an interpreter present at a 2017 meeting between Trump and Putin, in what would be a highly controversial and unprecedented move. The chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Democrat Eliot Engel, said in an interview with CNN on Monday that congress may have “no choice” but to subpoena the interpreter, after the Washington Post reported at the weekend that Trump had “seized” notes from the interpreter following the 2017 meeting, which was in Hamburg, Germany. In a separate statement, Engel said that Americans “deserve the truth” when it comes to “the mysteries swirling around Trump’s bizarre relationship with Putin” and how their “dark dealings” affect US national security. Missing from Engel’s statement, however, was the fact that after two years of investigations by both US Special Counsel Robert Mueller and the FBI, there is still no actual evidence that the Trump campaign colluded with Russia to win the election, despite ‘Russiagate’ faithfuls being convinced that a silver bullet is on the way. The Post acknowledged that the prospect of subpoenaing interpreters was causing “trepidation” among lawmakers and that the unusual suggestion raises “a host of ethical and practical questions” for the presidency, going forward.

Trump "Couldn't Care Less" If Putin Conversation Becomes Public; Slams "Most Insulting Article" By NYT - President Trump brushed off a report by the Washington Post stating that he "has gone to extraordinary lengths to conceal details" of his discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin - telling Fox News host Jeanine Pirro in a phone interview that he would be willing to release the details of a private conversation in Helsinki last summer.  "I would. I don't care," Trump told Pirro, adding: "I’m not keeping anything under wraps. I couldn't care less.""I mean, it’s so ridiculous, these people making up," Trump said of the WaPo report. The president referred to his roughly two-hour dialogue with Putin in Helsinki — at which only the leaders and their translators were present — as “a great conversation” that included discussions about “securing Israel and lots of other things.”“I had a conversation like every president does,” Trump said Saturday. “You sit with the president of various countries. I do it with all countries.” -PoliticoTrump on WaPo report and meeting with Putin to Pirro: "I meet with Putin, and they make a big deal. Anybody could have listened to that meeting, that meeting is open for grabs." pic.twitter.com/fmcudado31— John Whitehouse (@existentialfish) January 13, 2019In July an attempt by House Democrats to subpoena Trump's Helsinki interpreter was quashed by Republicans. "The Washington Post is almost as bad, or probably as bad, as the New York Times," Trump said.When Pirro asked Trump about a Friday night New York Times report that the FBI had opened an inquiry into whether he was working for Putin, Pirro asked Trump "Are you now or have you ever worked for Russia, Mr. President?"  "I think it's the most insulting thing I've ever been asked," Trump responded. "I think it's the most insulting article I've ever had written."

US Rejects Russian Offer, Will Pull Out of Nuclear Forces Treaty — Initially ratified in 1987, the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), which famously kept all nuclear missiles out of Europe for decades, is set to collapse, with US officials saying they will withdraw from the treaty next month.The US has been accusing Russia of violating the INF for years related to a single missile design, called the 9m729, and its maximum range. The INF forbids all nuclear missiles with ranges between 500 km and 5,500 km.The core of this issue is that the 9m729 is being designed as a replacement for the 9k720 Iskander, a short-range ballistic missile that has a range of 400 km, and is subsequently compliant with IMF. Russia maintains that the new missile has only been tested to the 400 km range itself, and is therefore also complaint.US officials, however, have accused the new missile of being comparable to the 3M-54 Kalibr, a submarine-launched missile with a range of 660 km. A submarine-launched missile of that range is allowed under INF, but a ground-based version would be banned. The US saw the similarity and concluded the new missile must have a similar, banned range. Russia made a last-minute bid to save the INF on Wednesday, offering the US a “static display” look at the new missile to confirm what it is. US officials are demanding complete access to it, and unsurprisingly Russia isn’t willing to hand over a brand new missile system to the United States to take apart and study, which US officials are claiming is the only way to really know its potential maximum range.

Trump announces huge expansion of US missile defense system - Donald Trump has announced plans for a huge expansion of US missile defense with aim of destroying enemy missiles “anywhere, anytime, any place”. The missile defense review, which Trump unveiled on Thursday in a speech at the Pentagon, calls for a major upgrade in land- and sea-based missile interceptor systems, as well as the development of a layer of satellite sensors in low orbit that would help track new types of cruise missiles and hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs) that countries like Russia and China are developing. The review argues that nuclear deterrence is the main defense against major nuclear powers like Russia and China, which both own large and sophisticated arsenals. And it restates US policy that the primary aim of such defenses is to counter well-armed “rogue states”, North Korea and Iran. Seven months after Trump declared that the North Korean threat had been eliminated, the new missile review states that Pyongyang “continues to pose an extraordinary threat and the US must remain vigilant”. The Pentagon review suggests that the system of sensors, radars and interceptors could eventually be used against a much broader range of adversaries, including defending US forces and allies in the Pacific and Europe against Russian and Chinese HGVs and cruise missiles. But Trump on Thursday went much further, presenting the plan as a potential panacea for future missile threats. “Our goal is simple: to ensure that we can detect and destroy any missile launched against the United States – anywhere, anytime, any place,” Trump said. Arms control experts expressed alarm at the review and Trump’s presentation, warning that it would feed already substantial Russian and Chinese fears that US missile defense was aimed at blunting their deterrent. The review could drive those states to build more missiles with more capabilities to overcome US defenses, and trigger an arms race. “This is the action-reaction dynamic that we saw happened in the cold war and it’s how we ended with 60,000 warheads,” And there are also concerns over whether the very costly missile defense systems actually work. In tests that were tightly scripted, US interceptors hit their targets 50% of the time.

 ‘Star Wars’ Returns: US Military to Develop Space-Based Missile Defense System — In what looks to be a highly ambitious and even more highly cost prohibitive scheme, President Trump has announced his intention to greatly expand US missile defense systems, with a major focus on putting them in space.During his announcement Thursday at the Pentagon, Trump set out his goals, saying that he wants “to ensure that we can detect and destroy any missile launched against the United States – anywhere, anytime, anyplace.”The Pentagon has had space-based interceptors on its wish list for some time, but between that and drones with lasers on them, they were far short of the sort of total, planet-wide coverage that President Trump is talking about.A space-centric missile defense system must inevitably draw comparisons to the Strategic Defense Initiative, commonly called Star Wars, of the 1980s, a controversial and hugely expensive program that also sought space-based interceptors.The timing of President Trump’s announcement will likely raise eyebrows on a few fronts, as it comes just a day after the US announced its intentions to withdraw from the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty with Russia, and just a day before North Korean officials are to arrive to meet with the secretary of state.Especially with respect to Russia, US buildups of missile defense systems have been met with major suspicion that the US is trying to eliminate Russia’s deterrent capability, a concern which often leads to Russian threats of a new arms race. With a treaty having just collapsed, that’s an even bigger concern this time. This also likely is tied to President Trump’s long-standing fondness for militarizing space, and his attempts to create a Space Force. During his speech, Trump declared space to be a “new warfighting domain.”

Trump’s Space Force: Nuclear Lunacy - (video & transcript)  In this Real News Network segment, Daniel Ellsberg explains why Trump’s effort to revive Reagan’s failed idea still won’t work. Not only is it another pork program, but it would actually increase the odds of nuclear war.

United States to Purchase 2 Israeli Iron Dome Missile Systems– The United States plans to buy two Iron Dome anti-missile defense systems from Israel.Israel’s Yedioth Ahronoth reported yesterday that the US administration had asked Congress for $373 million to buy the two systems from Israel.The US rarely buys armed systems from other countries due to national security considerations, but also because the US usually has the technological advantage, the Israeli daily explained. It added that while Israel has, in recent decades, sold technological systems to the United States, this will be the first time that Israel will sell a full defense system to its biggest ally. The two systems are expected to include two launchers, two sensors, two battlement management centers, and 240 interceptors.

Has the Government Legalized Secret Defense Spending—Matt Taibbi - October 4^th, 2018, was a busy news day. The fight over Brett Kavanuagh’s Supreme Court nomination dominated the cycle. The Trump White House received a supplemental FBI report it said cleared its would-be nominee of wrongdoing. Retired Justice John Paul Stevens meanwhile said Kavanaugh was compromised enough that he was “unable to sit as a judge.”  The only thing that did not make the news was an announcement by a little-known government body called the Federal Accounting Standards Advisory Board — FASAB — that essentially legalized secret national security spending. The new guidance, “SFFAS 56 – CLASSIFIED ACTIVITIES” permits government agencies to “modify” public financial statements and move expenditures from one line item to another. It also expressly allows federal agencies to refrain from telling taxpayers if and when public financial statements have been altered.  To Michigan State professor Mark Skidmore, who’s been studying discrepancies in defense expenditures for years, the new ruling ­— and the lack of public response to it — was a shock. “From this point forward,” he says, “the federal government will keep two sets of books, one modified book for the public and one true book that is hidden.”  Steven Aftergood of the Federation of American Scientists’ Project on Government Secrecy was one of the few people across the country to pay attention to the FASAB news release. He was alarmed. “It diminishes the credibility of all public budget documents,” he says. I spent weeks trying to find a more harmless explanation for SFFAS 56, or at least one that did not amount to a rule that allows federal officials to fake public financial reports. I couldn’t find one. This new accounting guideline really does mean what it appears to mean, and the details are more bizarre than the broad strokes. The FASAB ruling adds a new and confusing wrinkle to what little we know about levels of spending in the intelligence community. Officially, the fiscal year 2019 appropriation is $81.1 billion, which breaks down to $59.9 billion for the National Intelligence Program, along with $21.2 billion for the Military Intelligence Program.

Women Now Run the Military-Industrial Complex. That’s Nothing To Celebrate. - Major media outlets are fawning over the fact that women are taking over top positions in  the country’s largest weapons companies and in U.S. defense and intelligence agencies. From MSNBC to Politico toNowThis, a number of prominent publications are framing this ascent as an indicator of overall progress for women—and of increased equity in the organizations they are now leading. Women are now the CEOs of four out of the country’s five biggest military contractors,writes Politico reporter David Brown, noting that, “across the negotiating table, the Pentagon's top weapons buyer and the chief overseer of the nation's nuclear stockpile now join other women in some of the most influential national security posts.” Brown hails the developments as a “watershed” moment, citing Kathleen Hicks, senior vice president at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank whose top corporate funders are weapons contractors, as asserting that “the national security community” is more of a meritocracy than other fields. Throughout the article, the women leading these organizations proclaim that women can make it to the top if they believe in themselves.. The article even includes patronizing praise of how women’s leadership in the military can result in innovative solutions like wrapping sensitive equipment in pantyhose to keep out sand. Yet, feminists should not view this “rise” of women as a win. Feminism, as the most recent wave of imperial-feminist articles shows, is increasingly being co-opted to promote and sell the U.S. military-industrial complex: a profoundly violent institution that will never bring liberation to women—whether they are within its own ranks or in the countries bearing the greatest brunt of its brutality. This pro-military media spin is no accident: Weapons contractors are working hard to sell a progressive, pro-women brand to the public. Raytheon and other firms spend millions on public relations painting themselves as noble empowerers of women and girls in the sciences. Raytheon champions its partnership with Girl Scouts of the USA.  “Raytheon’s vision about making the world a safer place and the girl scouts’ vision of making the world a better place couldn’t be more well-suited as partners.” Such a claim is particularly brazen, coming from a company that supplies a steady stream of bombs for the U.S.-Saudi war in Yemen, which has unleashed a famine that has killed an estimated 85,000 Yemeni children under the age of five.

 Trump Pushed to Withdraw US From NATO Several Times in 2018: Report  — Adding significant detail to the July 2018 NATO summit, a number of Trump aides both current and former have told the press that Trump repeatedly pushed the idea of withdrawing the US from NATO in the lead-up to, and during, the summit.In the lead-up to the summit, President Trump reportedly told his top national security team that he did not see the point of the military alliance, and that he viewed it as a drain on US resources. He repeatedly complained Europe wasn’t spending enough on their militaries.All of this is broadly in keeping with President Trump’s past stance on NATO, which centered on repeated demands that all NATO nations meet a 2% of GDP US-imposed goal, and even though most nations weren’t meeting that demand anyhow, in July Trump pushed the demand to all NATO nations spending 4% of their GDP on their military.Reports at the time of the July summit saw Trump declaring himself “extremely unhappy” with the alliance, and claiming that everyone had agreed to give him whatever he wanted, though other NATO leaders contested this.There were even multiple media reports at the time that Trump threatened to withdraw from NATO at the summit if he didn’t get his demands met. French President Emmanuel Macron claimed this was untrue, and that Trump had never directly made such a threat.The push for NATO spending increases is hardly a Trump-exclusive one, and has been common among US presidents for decades. Trump’s willingness to question the need for NATO as an anti-Russia alliance is unusual. NATO’s hostility toward Russia is likely why this report is coming out now, six months after the summit. Media reports have tried to claim Trump is beholden to Russian President Vladimir Putin, and the reports on the summit were peppered with quotes from Obama-era officials claiming that Trump’s position is a “gift to Putin.”

Why the US-China dispute is about so much more than a trade imbalance - When it comes to the trade war against China, US President Donald Trump likes to wield one particularly big stick: a piece of legislation that allows him to take unilateral action, free from the constraints of international treaties and World Trade Organisation (WTO) agreements, against another country. Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act may sound arcane to anyone not closely following the progress of the trade war negotiations, but in fact it is one of Washington’s most effective weapons in bringing pressure on Beijing. For the president to be able to take such action against another country, an investigation initiated under Section 301 must first establish that it is engaging in “unfair trade policies”. And, a month before Trump fired the first shot in his trade war against China last April, US Trade Representative (USTR) Robert Lighthizer produced just such a report. Lighthizer – nicknamed the “trade war general” by Bloomberg – produced a 200-page document under Section 301 which reads like a charge sheet. It paints a sinister picture, accusing the Communist Party of carefully orchestrating an elaborate onslaught against American businesses to weaken the economic and technological advantages enjoyed by the US. The report provided the legal basis for Trump’s escalating series of tariffs against Chinese imports, currently on hold at 10 per cent on US$200 billion worth of Chinese goods, but threatened to rise to 25 per cent if the 90-day truce does not end in agreement. The USTR investigation was ambitious and extensive – going far beyond the US trade deficit with China – with almost every area of China’s economic and investment activities coming under scrutiny, particularly those related to technology.The main allegations levelled against Beijing included forced technology transfer, discriminatory investment restrictions, predatory acquisitions, cyberattacks and espionage. Beijing has vehemently protested the report’s findings and challenged the use of Section 301 at meetings of the WTO, which itself is coming under intense pressure from the Trump administration. “The USTR feels China’s intellectual property and technology transfer are practices that are not sufficiently covered under the World Trade Organisation. The WTO is not clear enough on these issues,” 

Why Trump's America is rethinking engagement with China -  The detention of Meng Wanzhou, chief financial officer of Huawei,  is the most striking symbol yet of the dramatic deterioration in relations between China and a US that is increasingly suspicious of Beijing’s motives and actions. Reinforcing the rupture, the US several weeks later charged two Chinese nationals with conducting a global hacking campaign to assist the Chinese intelligence services.   While the trade war has received the most attention, the economic tussle is part of a much more profound shift in the US that has seen Washington reverse important elements of the strategy of engaging with its Asian rival that was first introduced more than 40 years ago by Richard Nixon. Support for this change in approach has a broad base in the US. Officials across the US government have become significantly more hawkish towards China— over everything from human rights, politics and business to national security. At the same time, US companies and academics who once acted as a buffer against the harshest views are now far less sanguine. “China has for some time underestimated the extent to which the mood in the US has shifted,” says Hank Paulson, the former US Treasury secretary. “The attitude that they would implement reforms at a timetable that made sense to them missed the fact that this was no longer sustainable if they wanted the US to keep its markets open to them. And the US business community now supports a harder line.”   In October, Mike Pence, vice-president, hammered home that message in a speech at the Hudson Institute that charged China with a litany of offences — from political repression at home to coercive diplomacy abroad. The rhetoric has been matched with action. In the South China Sea, the US navy is now conducting frequent freedom of navigation operations to push back against Chinese sovereignty claims over disputed reefs and islands. Meanwhile, the justice department created a “China initiative” task force to crack down on espionage. While Ms Meng was arrested for allegedly helping her telecoms company violate US sanctions on Iran, US officials have long worried that Huawei could help China spy on rivals. Those concerns escalated last year, culminating in the US convincing its Five Eyes intelligence-sharing partners — Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Britain — that they needed to take a much tougher line on Huawei, according to one person familiar with the situation.

A Failure to Adjust - A debate has erupted, particularly on the right, in response to a recent Tucker Carlson monologue on how “Washington elite” policy choices, in particular international trade liberalization, have systematically (and perhaps nefariously) harmed members of America’s working class, dooming them to lives of drugs, isolation and despair. If this view were assigned to Carlson and his supporters alone, a few tweets in response would suffice. It has not, however, remained on Fox News, instead being promulgated and praised, though refined, by more thoughtful commentators and analysts. Among those is the University of Virginia’s Brad Wilcox and the Niskanen Center’s Sam Hammond in a new essay in The Atlantic called “What Tucker Carlson Gets Right.” I tend to agree with this essay’s larger points, having myself written about the serious, and relatively new, problems that Americans face when forced to adjust to severe disruptions, whether they come from trade, technology, culture or anything else—problems caused or exacerbated by bad government policies in desperate need of reform. On the specific issue of trade policy, however, I fear Wilcox and Hammond go far off course when they target the “elite policy choice” of liberalized U.S. trade with China for particular scorn. While Chinese import competition worked out great for America’s wealthy, they argue, it was a disaster for the working class: “Trade shocks to manufacturing industries have particularly negative impacts on the labor market prospects of men and degrade their marriage-market value along multiple dimensions: diminishing their relative earnings—particularly at the lower segment of the distribution—reducing their physical availability in trade-impacted labor markets, and increasing their participation in risky and damaging behaviors.” They add that “adverse shocks to the supply of ‘marriageable’ men reduce the prevalence of marriage … but raise the fraction of children born to young and unwed mothers and living in poor single-parent households.”

US Investigating Boeing Satellite Sale To China-Backed Startup - The close relationship of Boeing (whose former employee Patrick Shanahan is now the acting Pentagon chief) with a Chinese government-backed satellite start up company has been the target of an SEC and Commerce Department investigation, according to the Wall Street Journal.Global IP, based in Los Angeles, reportedly received a letter by the SEC requesting that the company retain all of its documents related to its work with Boeing as well as other entities, including China Orient Asset Management Company, a state owned Chinese lender. The letter says that the SEC believes that the company has "documents and data that are relevant to a matter under investigation". The letter was disclosed in a court filing on January 4 by one of Global IP's founders, Umar Javed. That filing was part of litigation against a group of defendants that includes a unit of China Orient.China Orient was said to be providing financing to Global IP for the purchase of a satellite from Boeing. This is problematic because due to recent diplomatic... tensions shall we say, American companies are "effectively barred" from selling satellites to China. The Commerce Department is also said to be looking at Global IP's Chinese financing. The Commerce Department is in charge of issuing export licenses from CFIUS, which is tasked with reviewing foreign deals for national security concerns. The two co-founders of Global IP are suing because they allege that a unit of China Orient secretly took control of the company after it accepted $200 million in financing from the firm. The founders stated they had been upfront in disclosing to Boeing where their funding was coming from to begin with.

U.S. trade chief saw no progress on key issues in China talks: Senator (Reuters) - United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer did not see any progress made on structural issues during U.S. talks with China last week, Republican U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley said on Tuesday as plans emerged for higher-level discussions at the end of January.  Grassley, who held a meeting with Lighthizer on Friday, said the top trade negotiator commented positively on China’s soybean purchases, which resumed in modest amounts last month after Washington and Beijing agreed to a 90-day truce in a trade war that has disrupted the flow of hundreds of billions of dollars of goods. “But he (Lighthizer) said that there hasn’t been any progress made on structural changes that need to be made,” Grassley said in his weekly conference call with reporters, adding that those issues would include intellectual property, stealing trade secrets and putting pressure on corporations to share information. The meeting came after mid-level U.S. and Chinese officials met in Beijing to discuss China’s offers to address U.S. complaints about intellectual property theft and increase purchases of U.S. goods and services. The two sides are trying to reach a deal that averts a scheduled March 2 escalation of U.S. tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods. Grassley said Chinese officials were due to visit Washington for further trade talks in a couple of weeks.   A person familiar with the Trump administration’s planning for the negotiations said that Chinese Vice Premier Liu He has accepted an invitation to come to Washington for talks with Lighthizer and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Jan. 30 and 31, just ahead of Chinese New Year.

As West Grows Wary, Chinese Investment Plummets - Chinese investment in the United States and Europe dropped sharply in 2018 after a couple of gangbuster years as Beijing seeks to control flows of capital and advanced economies grow warier of China’s economic influence.  Last year, Chinese firms invested just $30 billion in the United States, Canada, and Europe, a stark reversal from the $111 billion invested in 2017 and the $94 billion in 2016, according to new research from the law firm Baker McKenzie and the Rhodium Group.The drop was especially sharp in the United States, which is locked in a trade war with Beijing and which is tightening restrictions on Chinese investment. Inflows fell from about $45 billion two years ago to just $5 billion in 2018. And on the year, Chinese firms sold off $13 billion worth of assets in North America.Regulatory scrutiny of Chinese investments by American officials is producing what Rod Hunter, a partner with Baker McKenzie, believes is an overreaction in the market as investors shy away from deals that may be perceived as politically sensitive.Amid a trade war between the Washington and Beijing, reforms to American investment regulations aimed at stopping the outflow of critical U.S. technologies, and a slowing Chinese economy, investors in Beijing and multinational firms are examining deals in European and U.S. companies with greater skepticism. “If you’re sitting in an office in Shanghai, Seoul, Tokyo, or Munich, it’s hard to untangle all of that,” said Hunter, who during the George W. Bush administration oversaw the Committee on Foreign Investment, the U.S. body that examines investments by foreign firms in sensitive American industries.

US pursuing criminal charges against Huawei for alleged theft of trade secrets: WSJ - The U.S. Justice Department will pursue a criminal case against Chinese tech giant Huawei for alleged trade secrets theft, according to The Wall Street Journal.The charges revolve around theft of trade secrets related to a robotic device called "Tappy" made by T-Mobile, which was used in testing smartphones, according to the report.The Wall Street Journal reports an indictment is expected soon.Huawei declined to comment on the report. The criminal case reportedly stemmed from a civil case filed in Seattle District Court in 2014, in which T-Mobile said Huawei stole its proprietary technology after Huawei "abused its relationship as a phone handset supplier for T-Mobile to obtain access to T-Mobile's robot and, in violation of several confidentiality and nondisclosure agreements, copied the robot's specifications and stole parts, software and other trade secrets."T-Mobile claimed in the 2014 complaint that Huawei employees stole the robotic trade secrets at the direction of Huawei's corporate research and development team based in China. Huawei fought the claims, saying the robot was and the two sides sparred until a federal jury awarded T-Mobile $4.8 million in the case in 2017.The case comes on the heels of controversy over the Dec. 1 arrest o f the company's CFO, Meng Wanzhou in Vancouver. Meng is the daughter of the company's CEO Ren Zhengfei. On Tuesday, Ren praised President Trump and his efforts at forging a new trade deal with China, while emphasizing the negative effect "the detention of certain individuals" could have on U.S.-China relations.

Tech war rumors cloud sound Chinese fundamentals - After a flat session, US equities jumped on a report from The Wall Street Journal that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin proposed to roll back tariffs on Chinese imports “as a way to calm markets and give Beijing an incentive to make deeper concessions in a trade battle that has rattled global economies.” The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 250 points on the news, and retraced downward after a Treasury official dismissed the report. Diverging Administration views have leaked into the newspaper over the past 24 hours, including a report yesterday that federal prosecutors planned a criminal investigation against Huawei for allegedly stealing trade secrets of “Tappy” – a smartphone testing robot – from T-mobile, and a rumor that Germany was looking for ways to keep Huawei out of its 5G rollout. There is a fine line between reality-show theater and real disagreements inside the Administration. The trouble isn’t so much the opposition of “free traders” like Mnuchin and economic adviser Lawrence Kudlow against “hard liners” like US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and trade adviser Peter Navarro. The Administration’s potshots at Huawei, including the arrest last month of its chief financial officer in Vancouver and the arrest last week of a Polish Huawei executive for alleged espionage, suggest a provenance in the US intelligence community. Some media commentary Thursday morning claimed that the Huawei business would reignite the trade war. All of the press reports should be viewed as self-serving interventions by parts of the US government advancing divergent agendas. The Wall Street Journal claims that “Germany is exploring ways to ban the use of Huawei Technologies Co. products in the country’s telecommunications infrastructure” is suspect. The US government asked Germany to keep Huawei out, and the German telecommunications security office politely responded that it had no proof of wrongdoing. At US insistence, the Germans will go through the motions of examining Huawei’s behavior, which in Journalese turns into “exploring ways” to kick Huawei out of Germany.

Report: Trump's trade policies hurt economic growth - Trump wants to maintain a strong economy and reduce the U.S. trade deficit, but his trade policies are contributing to a slowdown in U.S. and global economic growth, according to a new report out today. Global management consulting firm A.T. Kearney forecasts U.S. economic growth will fall to 2.5 percent in 2019 and drop further to 1.4 percent by 2023. Last month, the U.S. Federal Reserve projected more of a decline in U.S. economic growth, to 2.3 percent this year."Protectionist policies, violations of both the rules and the spirit of free trade agreements and a looming risk that the World Trade Organization’s dispute settlement mechanism will cease to function create profound risks for the current system of international trade," A.T. Kearney said. The U.S.-China trade war also could weaken global growth and disrupt supply chains for many companies, the report said. Beijing released economic data on Monday that appeared to confirm a slowdown in China’s economy and the growing impact of the trade war with the U.S. China’s imports dropped 7.6 percent in December compared to the previous year, while its exports dropped 4.4 percent. Pro Trade’s Doug Palmer has more.

Rethinking Free Trade Agreements in Uncertain Times - naked capitalism - Jerri-Lynn here. In this short  post, Jomo Kwame Sundaram makes the case against the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) – a free trade agreement originally intended to draw the US back into the Pacific region to counter the influence of China. To endorse  this agreement would have required Trump effectively to flip flop on his previous decision to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership. The CPTP is a free trade agreement among eleven countries in the Asia-Pacific region: Australia, Brunei, Canada Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam.  The agreement entered into force on December 30, 2018 among the first six countries to ratify it: Canada, Australia, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand, and Singapore. Once fully implemented, its 11 member countries will form a trading bloc representing 495 million consumers and accounting for 13.5% of global GDP.

 Suspense builds for Trade Subcommittee selection -  The House Ways and Means Committee is expected to vote this morning on chairmanship of its trade subpanel. Either Rep.Bill Pascrell or Rep. Earl Blumenauer will take the helm and define the subcommittee’s focus for the next two years.  Senate Democrats are falling in line behind the rallying cry that the Trump administration’s plans for enforcement of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade deal will be the most important factor in winning their support for the agreement.  Brussels is working on an alternative dispute settlement system at the World Trade Organization aimed at breaking the current U.S. blockade of appellate judges — and likely leave the U.S. on the outside.

1.3 million Egyptians applied for US Green Card in 2018 – A US Government report has shown that the number of Arab citizens who applied to the random US emigration visa programme known as the ‘lottery’ reached four million in 2018; they include an estimated 1.3 million Egyptians. According to the figures published on the website of the US State Department’s Consular Affairs Office last Tuesday, the total number of those who applied from all over the world is around 23 million people, four million more than the figure in 2017 which was put at 19 million. The total number of those who applied in 2016 was more than 17.5 million. First in the Arab world, fifth globallyThe released figures showed that Egypt had the highest number of applicants from the Arab world crossing the threshold of the one million lottery applicants. 1.3 million Egyptians applied to emigrate to the US in 2018 compared to 914,000 in the previous year, an increase of 361,000 people. As such, Egypt has occupied the fifth position globally, after Ghana, 2.227 million; Uzbekistan, 2.114 million; Iran, the biggest Middle East source of applicants at 1.624 million; and Ukraine in fourth position at 1.45 million. It is worth noting that the random emigration visa programme (the lottery) is an annual lottery in a competition to win permanent residency cards in the US, known as the Green Card. It is a programme made available to countries with low emigration levels to the United States. The numbers of Egyptians applying for the emigration program have fluctuated over the past ten years. The numbers recorded are: 914,000 in 2017, 512,000 in 2016, 763,000 in 2015, 847,000 in 2014, 960,000 in 2013, 780,000 in 2012, 534,000 in 2011, 642,000 in 2010, 648,000 in 2009 and 636,000 in 2008.

President Trump promises H-1B visa holders changes, path to citizenship - President Trump had a surprising message for highly skilled foreign-born workers in the country early Friday morning: stay awhile. In a tweet, the president promised changes to the H-1B visa program that could make it easier for them to access “a potential path to citizenship.” He wrote, “We want to encourage talented and highly skilled people to pursue career options in the U.S.” Although he didn’t offer specifics, immigration attorneys point to a rule change proposed in November that would help large Bay Area tech companies bring highly skilled foreigners to their headquarters, at the expense of Indian outsourcing firms’ ability to hire workers. The rule change fiddles with the lottery that determines who gets the 85,000 H-1B visas granted to for-profit companies every year. The Department of Homeland Security wants to improve the odds for people who earned an advanced degree at an American university. “There is no small irony in the fact that everything the Trump administration has done so far would actually make it harder to get the H-1B visa,” said Doug Rand, a co-founder of Boundless Immigration, a tech firm that helps families navigate the process. Though the administration can make some changes to the rules for the visa program, the H-1B visa was established by laws passed by Congress, and only the federal legislature can make substantial changes to the program. But in administering the program, the executive branch has considerable power over H-1B visa holders and hopefuls. Some H-1B applicants have had a harder time getting approved for the coveted visa since Trump took office. The number of “requests for evidence” — documents from the government asking lawyers to justify their client’s application — in the fourth quarter of 2017 was almost equal to the total number of such requests issued for the first three quarters, according to data from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services. Thousands of applicants are getting denied, prompting them to go home or take their talents to other countries.

Trump Warns Of New Migrant Caravan Leaving Honduras - As the battle over President Trump's border wall drags on for its fourth week, President Trump is warning about a new migrant caravan forming in Honduras and will soon be on it way to the Southern border. In his tweet, Trump mocked Democratic leaders Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer, warning that "a drone flying around will not stop" the advancing migrant hordes. Once the next wave arrives, "Only a Wall, or Steel Barrier, will keep our Country safe!"  A big new Caravan is heading up to our Southern Border from Honduras. Tell Nancy and Chuck that a drone flying around will not stop them. Only a Wall will work. Only a Wall, or Steel Barrier, will keep our Country safe! Stop playing political games and end the Shutdown! Polls are now showing that people are beginning to understand the Humanitarian Crisis and Crime at the Border. Numbers are going up fast, over 50%. Democrats will soon be known as the Party of Crime. Ridiculous that they don’t want Border Security!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 15, 2019  Trump added that polling shows more than 50% of Americans now understand the link between immigration and crime, and that Trump's quest to build a border wall is a "humanitarian issue." Meanwhile, the Democrats are risking becoming the "Party of Crime" due to their opposition. The issue of several migrant caravans heading to the US from Central America became a flashpoint during the days and weeks before the midterms, with Trump regularly weighing in on their progress and US media organizations monitoring their progress. On Tuesday, Fox reported that the caravan - nearly 500 strong - left Honduras on Monday.

'A death sentence': migrant caravan member killed in Honduras after US sent him back - Several days after Nelson Espinal slipped across the US southern border, he called his family back in Honduras from inside a US detention center. “Tell Mom not to worry – I’m applying for asylum,” Espinal, 28, told his sister Patricia, who recounted the December phone call with tears streaming down her sun-scarred cheeks. “We must pray to God that they give it to me. I told them I can’t go back to Honduras because if I go back, they’re going to kill me.” Espinal had made the 4,900km journey with several thousand others who joined the migrant caravan in October in the hopes of starting a new life. Within weeks of reaching the US, however, he was deported back to his gang-infested neighborhood in the Honduran capital Tegucigalpa – and the death threats that had prompted him to flee. He resolved to try his luck again in the new year: head north, save his life and find a way to help his family and provide for his seven-year-old son. But just over a week after his return, Nelson was shot dead on the street outside his home on 18 December 2018.

  US Extends Troop Deployment At Mexican Border As Migrant Caravan Leaves Honduras - As a new migrant caravan leaves Honduras with the goal of crossing into the US over the southern border, the Pentagon announced on Tuesday that it would extend the military's mission on the southern border, according to Reuters. The mission will be extended through at least Sept. 30, they said. Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan approved the extension following a request from the Department of Homeland Security. There are currently about 2,350 troops assigned to the border mission. The deployment was expected to end on Jan. 31. The deployment had previously been authorized through Jan. 31 by former Defense Secretary Jim Mattis.President Donald Trump initially ordered the deployment in October, shortly before the midterm congressional elections, as part of a widespread crackdown on illegal immigration as several caravans of migrants from Central America resisted the Mexican government's efforts to keep them in Mexico and continued their trek to the US.The order comes as the number of migrant families illegally crossing the southern border has jumped in recent months, along with a spike in asylum claims from migrants fleeing violence in Central America. The troops, who are restricted by US law from engaging in law enforcement activities, have mostly performed supporting services like building reinforcements at border bases and assisting border patrol agents

“Monsters Leading America”: Thousands More Children Locked Up Than Reported  — Confirming the fears of human rights groups, the inspector general for the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) reported on Thursday that thousands more children were separated from their parents at the southern U.S. border by the Trump administration, long before it first publicly unveiled the family separation policy last spring.“The total number of children separated from a parent or guardian by immigration authorities is unknown,” reads the report, and the inspector general found that children were separated over a longer period of time as officials “observed a steep increase in the number of children who had been separated from a parent or guardian” by the Department of Homeland Security starting in July 2017—nearly a year before the administration officially announced its family separation policy in May 2018. Monsters. We have monsters leading America. https://t.co/jI97S2wF4F  — melissa byrne (@mcbyrne) January 17, 2019 “This policy was a cruel disaster from the start. This report reaffirms that the government never had a clear picture of how many children it ripped from their parents. We will be back in court over this latest revelation,” said Lee Gelernt, lead attorney for the ACLU’s Immigrant Rights program. “It is shocking that the Trump administration enacted this policy with no attempt to develop the infrastructure and processes that could track and eventually reunite these children,” said Sandy Santana, executive director of Children’s Rights. “We are not talking about commodities. These are kids, and we owe these families—and the American public—the full and accurate count of the number of separated children and their whereabouts today. Even amidst the government shutdown, Congress must make getting concrete answers an absolute and urgent priority.” Amnesty International previously estimated in October that about 8,000 families had been separated at the border by the Trump administration between 2017 and 2018.

For Private Prisons, Detaining Immigrants is Big Business -  Thomas W. Beasley had something for sale, and figured he could market it the same as any other merchandise.  As a co-founder of Corrections Corporation of America in 1983, and with a get-tough-on-crime spirit ascendant in the country, he sold lockup space to federal and state governments that were jailing people faster than they could find room in their own institutions. Mr. Beasley’s company, renamed CoreCivic two years ago, became a leader in what is now a roughly $4-billion-a-year American industry: for-profit prisons, privately owned and operated. Some bad-to-the-bone criminals are among the people guarded by private prisons. But a key function these days is watching over undocumented immigrants. Their detention centers, located mainly in the South and the West, are where the government sends most people caught trying to enter the United States illegally. How ably these companies discharge their duty — or not — shapes thisRetro Report video, the latest in a documentary series examining major news stories of the past and their continuing impact. The treatment of migrants has new urgency in the Trump era, given this administration’s efforts at strict border control, which include detaining large numbers of children. Data obtained by The New York Times showed that in mid-September, 12,800 migrant children were held in federally contracted shelters, five times the number in custody a little over a year earlier. One picture of private prisons captured in the video includes barely edible food, indifferent health care, guard brutality and assorted corner-cutting measures. It is framed by the experience of Josue Vladimir Cortez Diaz, a gay man from El Salvador who fled through Mexico to the United States after enduring what he described as persecution and death threats in his homeland. Captured at the California border, he was sent to a private detention center run by GEO Group, formerly the Wackenhut Corrections Corporation. This was in Adelanto, Calif., about 60 miles northeast of Los Angeles.

Judge Orders Trump Administration To Remove 2020 Census Citizenship Question - A federal judge in New York has ruled against the Trump administration's decision to add a citizenship question to the 2020 census. U.S. District Judge Jesse Furman ordered the administration to stop its plans to include the controversial question on forms for the upcoming national head count "without curing the legal defects" the judge identified in his 277-page opinion released on Tuesday.The question asks, "Is this person a citizen of the United States?" All U.S. households have not been asked such a question on the census since 1950, although it has been asked of a sample of households for past head counts and for the Census Bureau's American Community Survey. Furman found that the decision by Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross to add the citizenship question to the 2020 census was "unlawful" because of "a veritable smorgasbord of classic, clear-cut" violations of the Administrative Procedure Act, including cherry-picking evidence to support his choice. Ross oversees the Census Bureau. "To conclude otherwise and let Secretary Ross's decision stand would undermine the proposition — central to the rule of law — that ours is a 'government of laws, and not of men,' " Furman wrote, quoting one of the country's Founding Fathers, John Adams. Ross, Furman added, "ignored and violated a clear statutory duty" to use existing government records about people's citizenship status as much as possible rather than using the census to ask a citizenship question. In another violation of the law, Ross "announced his decision in a manner that concealed its true basis rather than explaining it," Furman said.

 Top Trump official resigned over White House plan to withhold disaster-relief funds from Puerto Rico: report - The deputy secretary of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) is resigning Thursday due to disagreements with members of the Trump administration regarding housing policy and the administration's efforts to intervene in disaster-relief money for Puerto Rico, The Washington Post reported Wednesday. Pam Patenaude notified HUD Secretary Ben Carson of her planned departure last month and was expected to transition out of the role in January. Patenaude, HUD's second in command, reportedly grew frustrated by the White House’s attempt to block federal relief money to the island following the devastation left by Hurricane Maria in 2017. According to the Post, Patenaude expressed concern in fall 2018 over the Trump administration’s attempt to block disaster-recovery money Congress appropriated for the island and states hit by hurricanes. Patenaude visited Puerto Rico a half-dozen times during her time in the role. “I didn’t push back,” Patenaude told the Post, referring to Trump’s attempt to block relief funding. “I advocated for Puerto Rico and assured the White House that Puerto Rico had sufficient financial controls in place and had put together a thoughtful housing and economic development recovery plan.” Carlos Mercader, the executive director of the Puerto Rico Federal Affairs Administration in Washington, told the Post that Patenaude showed the "most commitment to Puerto Rico of any of the public officials inside the Trump administration.” Mercader joined Patenaude on several trips to the island.

The White House calls food stamp funds for Puerto Rico ‘excessive and unnecessary’ - The White House is all about providing piles of fast food to elite college athletes, but when it comes to funding Puerto Rico’s post-hurricane food stamp program, it’s not feeling so generous. On Wednesday, the Trump administration released a statement officially opposing an additional $600 million in post-hurricane Nutritional Assistance Program (NAP) —the island’s version of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), better known as food stamps — calling the funding “excessive and unnecessary.” The news comes after reports that Trump didn’t want a single dollar going to the disaster-stricken island.Puerto Rico already receives fewer federal resources to support low-income families through NAP than it would under SNAP, even though its poverty rate is over three times the national average and its cost of living exceeds many other areas of the country, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. The extraNAP funding would have helped an estimated 100,000 impoverished Puerto Rican families meet their nutritional needs. (NAP is operated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture which has been shut down for nearly a month.)“There is no indication that households need ongoing support at this time or that Puerto Rico requires additional time to return to normal NAP operations,” said the official White House statement.The news was met with outrage from Puerto Rico’s governor, Ricardo Rosselló, who requested additional disaster relief funding last year, citing the island’s “inability to provide food security to those in need.” Rosselló took to social media on Thursday to address President Trump directly, calling for a meeting “so I can correct the ill-informed advice and disconcerting notions you are getting on Puerto Rico, particularly on the NAP program which provides much needed nutritional assistance to over 1 million US citizens living in Puerto Rico.” Rosselló said the Puerto Rico’s food stamp program was already inadequate before Hurricanes Irma and Maria hit the island. Now he expects to see even more people going hungry.

'Make No Mistake. People Will Die': Backlash Against 'Relentless War on Medicaid' Waged by Trump - Following reporting that the Trump administration is planning an attack on Medicaid by seeking key changes in how the program is financed—changes it wants to make without Congressional approval—Democratic lawmakers and healthcare advocates are warning the proposal means healthcare for millions of Americans will be threatened as states will be forced to "make draconian cuts."The plan, Politico reported Friday citing "three administration sources," would involve states being able to opt for block grants instead of receiving open ended funding as they do now, for supposedly "more flexibility to run the low-income health program that serves nearly 75 million Americans, from poor children, to disabled people, to impoverished seniors in nursing homes."As for that touted "flexibility," Hannah Katch, senior policy analyst at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, previously laid out in a blog post: states already enjoy expansive flexibility under Medicaid, which they're using to streamline healthcare delivery and improve health. A block grant would likely sharply cut federal funding over time and shift large costs to states, eliminating states' ability to invest in innovative reforms. It would only give states the flexibility to make draconian cuts, leaving many beneficiaries uninsured or without access to needed healthcare.Moreover, as Kelly Allen of the West Virginia Center on Budget and Policy explained in a tweet, "Entitlement programs like SNAP and Medicaid see increased need when the economy worsens or during natural disasters. But with a block grant—sorry—it's a fixed pie and when the money is gone, it's gone." Look also to what happened in 2014 with regards to prescription drug spending to see the impact of block grants, said Edwin Park of Georgetown University Health Policy Institute' Center for Children & Families: Here's real-life example of states facing higher-than-expected #Medicaid costs. New Hep C treatment drugs in 2014 caused big spike in Rx spending. Unlike current law where federal $ automatically increases in response, no additional $ under block grant/cap. pic.twitter.com/VorudTLGCZ

Single Payer Not Single Payer - The people want single payer. The corporate class answers — not single payer. The people say — single payer — get rid of all the other payers. Get rid of the insurance companies. And while you’re at it, get rid of the health maintenance organizations and accountable care organizations and value based programs and for profit hospitals feeding at the public trough.. The corporate class says — keep those corporations at the trough. The corporate class says — better yet, public option for all. The people say — we want Canadian style health care. The corporate class says — Medicare buy in. The people say — everybody in, nobody out. The corporate class says — Medicare Advantage for everyone. The people say — single payer. The corporate class throws up a smoke screen with — universal health care. The corporate class wants anything but single payer. Why? Because single payer threatens corporate power. Under single payer, insurance companies gone. HMOs gone. ACOs gone. For profit hospitals — gone. At least that’s the way it was for the past sixteen years under the gold standard for single payer — HR 676. Now, on cue, with the Democrats in charge of the House, HR 676 is being rewritten and the Democrats even want to get rid of the number 676 — and start with a new number. Not 676. Why? Because the “progressive Democrats” in the House want to align the House bill with Bernie Sanders bill in the Senate (S 1804). The Sanders bill is not the gold standard for single payer. It has a number of serious defects. The Sanders bill allows for profit hospitals and accountable care organizations and health maintenance organizations and value based programs (ACO/HMO/VBP) — all corporate talk for corporate intricacy and distraction — to continue to exist and drive up costs within the so-called single payer.  Dr. Andrew Coates, former president of Physicians for a National Health Program said last year “there should be no profiteering in the delivery of healthcare.” “Nursing homes in the U. S. are mostly owned by private-equity firms like Warburg Pincus, Bain Capital, GE Capital, the Carlyle Group, and others,” Dr. Coates said. “These corporate owners in turn hire myriad subcontractors to run every aspect of the home, from the kitchen to the janitorial service to the electronic health records to the laundry. And at every step there is someone taking a profit out.”

Two years in, Donald Trump remains the ‘unprecedented president’ – DW - Remember the hope that Donald Trump would be mostly tough talk, but little action? At the halfway-mark of his first term it is time to acknowledge the huge impact he's already had — and wonder how much more could come. In his first two years in office, US President Donald Trump pulled the US out of the landmark international nuclear arms agreement with Iran, out of the signature global climate accord and out of the historic trade pact with Asia, the so-called Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).He launched a bruising trade war with China, slapped tariffs on America's European allies and ordered a speedy withdrawal of all US forces from Syria.He signed into law one of the largest tax overhauls in recent history, instituted a sweeping crackdown on undocumented immigrants and triggered the longest government shutdown in US history. And he is in the process of remaking US courts by appointing more federal judges to the bench than any of his recent predecessors at the same time.     These are only some of the most striking examples of the tangible impact Trump has had. And it is important to note that all of these moves, while often rolled out erratically, should not have come as a surprise to anyone as all of them were campaign promises made by then-candidate Trump.Taken together they have already changed how the US is viewed abroad. "I think Trump has had a very negative effect on American foreign policy and certainly on American soft power around the world,"

 Sanders to introduce bill that would raise federal minimum wage to $15  - Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) said Monday he will introduce a bill this week that would raise the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour.In a Twitter post, Sanders said the current rate of $7.25 per hour is “a starvation wage” and that he intends to change it.“If you work 40 hours a week, you should not live in poverty,” Sanders tweeted.Sanders introduced similar legislation in 2017. That bill, as well as the forthcoming one, called for the federal minimum wage to gradually increase to $15 an hour by 2024 in an effort to lessen the impact on the overall economy. His previous attempt to raise the federal minimum wage stalled in Congress, and the measure has little chance of passing the GOP-controlled Senate.

Court rejects FCC request to delay net neutrality case -- A federal appeals court denied the Federal Communications Commission’s request to postpone oral arguments in a court battle over the agency’s decision to repeal its net neutrality rules. The FCC had asked for the hearing to be postponed since the commission’s workforce has largely been furloughed due to the partial government shutdown. The hearing remains set for Feb. 1. After the FCC repealed the rules requiring internet service providers to treat all web traffic equally in December of 2017, a coalition of consumer groups and state attorneys general sued to reverse the move, arguing that the agency failed to justify it. The FCC asked the three-judge panel from the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals to delay oral arguments out of “an abundance of caution” due to its lapse in funding. Net neutrality groups opposed the motion, arguing that there is an urgent need to settle the legal questions surrounding the FCC’s order. “Due to the FCC’s misguided and unlawful repeal of the network neutrality rules, consumers are at risk of substantial harm from Internet Service Providers ("ISPs"), which may now interfere with access to lawful Internet content without the restraint of the net neutrality rules,” the trade group Incompas wrote in a filing this week.

Marco Rubio Introduces Privacy Bill To Create Federal Regulations On Data Collection -- Senator Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) introduced a bill Wednesday aimed at creating federal standards of privacy protection for major internet companies like Facebook, Amazon, and Google.The bill, titled the American Data Dissemination Act, requires the Federal Trade Commission to make suggestions for regulation based on the Privacy Act of 1974. Congress would then have to pass legislation within two years, or the FTC will gain the power to write the rules itself (under current laws, the FTC can only enforce existing rules).While Rubio’s bill is intended to reign in the data collection and dissemination of companies like Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Google, and Netflix, it also requires any final legislation to protect small businesses from being stifled by new rules. “While we may have disagreements on the best path forward, no one believes a privacy law that only bolsters the largest companies with the resources to comply and stifles our start-up marketplace is the right approach,” Rubio wrote in an op-ed for The Hill, announcing his bill.

 Most users are unaware Facebook compiles lists of their interests for advertisers: poll - Most Facebook users are unaware that the social media giant compiles lists of their interests to help advertisers target them more efficiently, according to a new Pew Research Center survey. Seventy-four percent of Facebook users said they were unaware that Facebook was keeping a list of their interests until Pew directed them towards the page. Facebook users can find the list of their interests on the platform's "ad preferences" page, which uses individuals' activities on the platform to compile a list of categories meant to represent what they care about. A majority of users said their Facebook-proscribed "interests" accurately reflect their real-life interests, while 27 percent said the list is not representative of what matters to them. "Interest" categories are broken down into groups including "news and entertainment," "business and industry," "travel," "people," and "hobbies." Examples of "interests" Facebook could identify include "video games," "banking," and "the federal government of the United States," as well as broader interests such as "adolescence." Eighty-eight percent of Facebook users, when directed by Pew to the "ad preferences" page, found that the platform had generated categories for them. Nearly sixty percent said those categories were representative. A little over fifty percent of users said they are uncomfortable that Facebook is compiling a list of their interests that will help advertisers more effectively target them. The "ad preferences" page sometimes assigns political affinities and "multicultural affinities" for users, meaning an assessment of the political or cultural groups that Facebook believes they engage with most frequently. Of those who were assigned a political affinity, 73 percent said it was accurate. Twenty-one percent of those surveyed by Pew said Facebook listed their "multicultural affinity," and sixty percent of those users said they do have an affinity for the group listed.

Facebook Accused of Using ’10-Year Challenge’ Meme to Improve Facial Recognition — While the “10-Year Challenge” spreading across social media may appear to be the latest innocuous viral phenomenon, sweeping upwards of 5 million users and multiple celebrities into the challenge, privacy experts and technology analysts are sounding the alarm about the social engineering motives behind the trend.According to the theory, the meme – which calls for Facebook and Instagram (which is owned by Facebook) users to upload a photo of themselves a decade ago alongside their latest photo – was deliberately crafted by Facebook as a means to harvest photos for the sake of improving the social media giant’s facial recognition software and AI machine-learning capabilities, or for Facebook to sell in batches to third-party companies.The first writer to lay out the theory in detail was Wired Magazine writer Kate O’Neill, whose sarcastic tweet questioning “how all this data could be mined to train facial recognition algorithms on age progression and age recognition” spread like wildfire after it was posted over the weekend.  In a subsequent opinion piece for Wired, O’Neill argued:“Thanks to this meme, there’s now a very large dataset of carefully curated photos of people from roughly 10 years ago and now.… But even if this particular meme isn’t a case of social engineering, the past few years have been rife with examples of social games and memes designed to extract and collect data. Just think of the mass data extraction of more than 70 million US Facebook users performed by Cambridge Analytica.” O’Neil added that “we need to approach our interactions with technology mindful of the data we generate and how it can be used at scale.”  Amy Webb, a professor and author at NYU Stern School of Business, told CBS News that the viral trend gives Facebook “a perfect storm for machine learning,” adding that the challenge “presented Facebook with a [terrifying] opportunity to learn, to train their systems to better recognize small changes” in users’ facial appearances.

Judge unseals trove of internal Facebook documents following our legal action - A trove of hidden documents detailing how Facebook made money off children will be made public, a federal judge ruled late Monday in response to requests from Reveal. A glimpse into the soon-to-be-released records shows Facebook’s own employees worried they were bamboozling children who racked up hundreds, and sometimes even thousands, of dollars in game charges. And the company failed to provide an effective way for unsuspecting parents to dispute the massive charges, according to internal Facebook records. The documents are part of a 2012 class-action lawsuit against the social media giant that claimed it inappropriately profited from business transactions with children. The lead plaintiff in the case was a child who used his mother’s credit card to pay $20 while playing a game on Facebook. The child, referred to as “I.B.” in the case, did not know the social media giant had stored his mom’s payment information. As he continued to play the game, Ninja Saga, Facebook continued to charge his mom’s credit card, racking up several hundred dollars in just a few weeks. The child “believed these purchases were being made with virtual currency, and that his mother’s credit card was not being charged for these purchases,” according to a previous ruling by U.S. District Court Judge Beth Freeman. When the bill came, his mom requested Facebook refund the money, saying she never authorized any charges beyond the original $20. But the company never refunded any money, forcing the family to file a lawsuit in pursuit of a refund. The court documents, which have remained hidden for years, came to light after Reveal from The Center for Investigative Reporting intervened last year to request the records be unsealed. There is increased public interest in Facebook’s business practices in the wake of high-profile scandals, including fake news published on the site and the leaking of user data. On Monday, the court agreed to unseal some of the records.

GOP leaders strip Steve King of committee assignments -  House GOP leaders moved Monday to remove Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa) from all of his committee assignments following a firestorm over remarks considered racist. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) told reporters after a meeting of the Republican Steering Committee that King would not receive any committee assignments for the new Congress. King faced bipartisan criticism after telling The New York Times in an interview published last week, "White nationalist, white supremacist, Western civilization — how did that language become offensive?” King had been a member of the House Judiciary, Agriculture and Small Business committees. He had also served as chairman of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on the Constitution and Civil Justice in the last Congress, and could have stood to serve as its ranking member under the Democratic majority. The move by GOP leaders severely hamstrings King's ability to wield influence as a member of Congress. The Agriculture Committee in particular is considered a prime spot for lawmakers like King who represent states with agricultural industries. "We will not be seating Steve King on any committees in the 116th Congress," McCarthy told reporters. King insisted that his remarks were taken out of context and criticized McCarthy's decision. “Leader McCarthy’s decision to remove me from committees is a political decision that ignores the truth," King said in a statement.

 Pelosi gets revenge against one of the Dem rebels -- House Speaker Nancy Pelosi exacted revenge against one of her most outspoken detractors Tuesday night, blocking Rep. Kathleen Rice from landing a seat on the high-profile House Judiciary Committee.   Pelosi lobbied for other members to join the panel over Rice, leaving the third-term New York Democrat off a list of her preferred members for the committee during a tense closed-door meeting Tuesday night, according to multiple sources. The effort came despite a full-court push from the New York delegation to secure a spot for Rice, a former prosecutor, on the panel that oversees everything from impeachment to guns to immigration.The push by Pelosi was seen as payback by many in the room after Rice was one of the main megaphones behind a campaign to block the California Democrat from becoming speaker again.“She was boxed out and the result was cooked before we walked in the room,” said a source in the room. “If you went by seniority then yes [she would have got the position]. But that’s not what happened. Scores being settled was first priority.“But the decision by Pelosi to block Rice from the committee, instead recommending several freshmen to fill the open slots on the panel, sparked outcry from members of the New York delegation, who felt like Rice deserved the position as the more senior lawmaker. Pelosi argued that New York was already well represented on the panel, both with its chairman, Rep. Jerry Nadler, and House Democratic Caucus Chairman Hakeem Jeffries. But Rice backers point out that if that’s the case, why did Pelosi recommend Florida Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, a freshman lawmaker with far less seniority than Rice, for the panel when two other Floridians, Reps. Ted Deutch and Val Demings, sit on the committee. It was also the latest slight for New York members, who were still upset that another member of their delegation, freshman Rep. Anthony Brindisi, was blocked from getting on the Armed Services Committee on Monday night. Brindisi, one of nearly two dozen freshmen Democrats in districts won by President Donald Trump, was also a Pelosi critic on the campaign trail, vowing to oppose her for speaker. Brindisi followed through with his campaign pledge, voting for former Vice President Joe Biden earlier this month instead.

Welcome Their Hatred - Politico ran a very revealing story this morning about the socialist congresswoman, summed up in its headline: “Exasperated Democrats try to rein in Ocasio-Cortez.” House Dems’ grievances include high crimes like encouraging primary challenges to centrist, pro-corporate Democrats and pushing for (gasp!) a committee appointment they don’t think she deserves.And how could she publicly call out the Democratic leadership’s commitment to “PAY-GO,” the Grover Norquist-esque rule that, by requiring new spending to include offsets that prevent a federal budget deficit increase, could block policies like Medicare for All or a Green New Deal from reaching a House vote?Even more elected Democrats would speak up against AOC, but they are petrified by the awesome power of her Twitter account: “So far, most [House Democrats] have kept their criticism of Ocasio-Cortez private, fearful she’ll sic her massive following on them by firing off a tweet.”As unbecoming as this whining by some of the world’s most powerful elected officials is, the party’s disciplinary power is on full display in the piece. Elected leaders warn she will be isolated in the House if she doesn’t tone it down and back off what Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-MO) calls “sniping [with]in our Democratic Caucus.”“The chances that the Democratic caucus will stand by and watch its chair [Rep. Hakeem Jefferies (D–NY)] get attack[ed] and people piling on him — by Democrats! — is so obscene that I think you’ll find one of the strongest reactions that could possibly be anticipated,” Rep. Cleaver said. (Politico previously reported Ocasio-Cortez supports primarying Jefferies; in today’s story, she denies it.)Many of the quoted officials seems to be channeling the Rock, demanding that AOC know her role and shut her mouth, or else. The article paints a portrait of a fairly pathetic party, led by officials who style themselves as #Resistance leaders but shit their pants when a twenty-nine-year-old with a Twitter following joins them and actually takes pro-working class, stop-the-world-from-burning-to-a-crisp policies seriously. “People are afraid of her,” one jittery, anonymous Democratic aide says, perhaps while wearing a fake mustache and trench coat, calling from a payphone on the outskirts of the capital.

As Poll Shows Majority Back 70% Tax Rate for Ultra-Rich, Ocasio-Cortez's "Radical" Proposal Proves Extremely Mainstream - Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) sparked a flood of hysterical and error-filled responses from the right when she suggested in a recent "60 Minutes" interview that America's top marginal tax rate should be hiked to 70 percent to help pay for bold progressive programs, but a survey published on Tuesday found that the majority of Americans are on the freshman congresswoman's side. Conducted by The Hill in partnership with the market research firm HarrisX, the poll found that 59 percent of the U.S. public supports raising the marginal tax rate on the richest Americans to 70 percent. The poll also found a "surprising amount of support" for the proposal among Republicans, with 45 percent backing the idea along with 71 percent of Democrats.  "I don't think it's surprising," Ocasio-Cortez said of the poll results in an interview with The Hill. "What we see, overall, is that the vast majority of Americans know that income inequality is one of the biggest issues of our time."  "This is a policy that is already popular and it's time that we embrace working Americans and it's time that the Democratic Party fights in a full-throated manner for the working class in the United States and to not support a marginal tax rate is to really just allow runaway wealth and inequality to persist," she added.  As economists and historians hastened to point out after Ocasio-Cortez first floated the idea of raising the top marginal tax rate on the ultra-wealthy to 70 percent, similar and even higher rates were the norm for much of the 20th century.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s First House Speech Broke a C-SPAN Record. Here’s What She Said - Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s first speech from the House floor has set a minor record with C-SPAN. Ocasio-Cortez slammed the Trump Administration over the partial government shutdown in her remarks. A C-SPAN tweet of her nearly four-minute speech garnered 1.16 million views in a little more than 12 hours, setting a record for the most-watched Twitter video from the outlet of any remarks by a House member, according to a tweet from Howard Mortman, C-SPAN’s communications director. By Friday morning, it had surpassed 2.3 million views, with more than 13,000 retweets and over 46,000 likes. In just over 12 hours C-SPAN tweet of @RepAOC floor remarks last nite have become most-viewed twitter video by @cspan of any remarks by a member of House either party. 1.16M https://t.co/lkd0vK33cj Most viewed tweet video of a Sen? @KamalaHarris questioning Kavanaugh (7.14M views pic.twitter.com/2ulf1fNddc  — Howard Mortman (@HowardMortman) January 17, 2019 In her speech, Ocasio-Cortez shared a story about one of her constituents in the Bronx who works as an air traffic controller currently missing pay due to the government shutdown. “His job is to find solutions, analyze and adapt in real time to keep people safe in one of the busiest air spaces in the United States and the world,” she said. “And it is terrifying to think that almost every single air traffic controller in the United States is currently distracted at work because they don’t know when their next paycheck is coming.”

  Why This Iraq War Veteran Has Created Panic In The Democratic Party - Hawaiian Democratic Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard's just announced 2020 presidential bid has unleashed fury from both the right and the left, but more so from within her own party, and especially from corners long focused on regime change in Syria and who generally lobby for a more muscular "boots on the ground" foreign policy from Ukraine to Syria to Afghanistan. Some pundits have already gone so far as to say "keep an eye on her finances," suggesting illegal foreign campaign funding through Damascus or Moscow.  Both neocons and liberal interventionists alike have united to slam the anti-war progressive as "Assad's mouthpiece in Washington" and an "Assad apologist" and of course there's the customary “Putin puppet” slur — the latter because as journalist Michael Tracey puts it, she "hasn't been sufficiently Russiagate-crazy for Democrats".The former charge was regularly sounded after her early 2017 trip to Damascus to meet privately with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in a diplomatic gesture to personally investigate the West's regime change efforts and its consequences for the Syrian people. The move was slammed by fellow Congressional Democrats, who raised questions over possible violation of the Logan Act. Funny enough as a mixed race far-left congresswoman (of American Samoan descent), Hindu, and US Army reserve officer one would think she would be lionized by the left given her "impeccable identity-politics bona fides". But her unforgivable sin? She's long made it a central goal of her political career to "end America's interventionist wars of regime change that have cost our nation trillions of dollars and thousands of lives," for which she's introduced Syria-related resolutions in Congress toward that end.  She's also accused Washington's covert regime change efforts as fueling the rise of ISIS and playing "the protective big brother of al-Qaeda and other jihadists" — a charge repeated just two days after the last nation-wide 9/11 remembrance from the house floor. 

Russian Hackers Allegedly Attempted To Breach the DNC After the 2018 Midterms -- Russian hackers attempted to breach Democratic National Committee email addresses in a spear-phishing campaign just after the 2018 midterms, according to a DNC court document filed Thursday night.“The content of these emails and their timestamps were consistent with a spear-phishing campaign that leading cybersecurity experts have tied to Russian intelligence,” reads the complaint. “Therefore, it is probable that Russian intelligence again attempted to unlawfully infiltrate DNC computers in November 2018.”The complaint—part of the DNC’s ongoing lawsuit against Russia, WikiLeaks, the Trump campaign, Russian operatives, and other Trump associates in connection to the 2016 hacking of DNC computers—said there is no evidence that the attempted hack in Nov. 2018 was successful. Spear-phishing campaigns involve sending emails that appear to be from a trusted source in order to gain confidential information. According to CNN, the emails in question appeared to have been sent from a State Department official and contained a PDF attachment that, if opened, would allow the hacker access to the recipient’s computer.

Conspiracy theories and the media -  Al Jazeera - Ideas that Jews, Freemasons, the Illuminati, lizard people or aliens are secretly running world affairs have been around for centuries. But in the past year conspiracy theories have been taking centre stage in mainstream politics both in Europe and the United States and have also been linked to deadly crimes. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban made fears of a migrant invasion orchestrated by George Soros a central part of his election campaign last March. Then, in late October, prior to the midterm congressional and senate elections, US President Donald Trump alluded to a conspiracy theory that Soros was funding a migrant caravan travelling towards the US from Honduras. That was after the theory had been propagated by a host on Fox News and tweeted by a Republican senator. "George Soros is a useful character because he taps into this pre-existing far-right narrative about Jewish control," says Kelly Weill, who covers conspiracy theories and the far-right for The Daily Beast. "And throughout the years we've seen this anti-Semitism turn into a documented conspiracy theories." Also in the US, both Cesar Sayoc, the man alleged to have sent a series of pipe bombs to figures on the mainstream left - including Soros, and Robert Bowers, who allegedly shot dead 11 people at a synagogue in Pittsburgh last November, were animated by, according to their social media posts, conspiracy theories linked to the migrant caravan. Conspiracy theories about the migrant caravan had been seeded on anonymous chat forums that are well-known for white supremacist rhetoric well before they emerged into the mainstream. "Key to the growth of these series is them not just living on places like 4chan or Reddit but them making the leap to these more widely used social media platforms where they can garner a much wider audience," 

 Trump Mocks Jeff Bozo Bezos Over Reporting On Tawdry Affair - In a late-night tweet, President Trump finally weighed in on the corporate news story of the week - the impending divorce of Jeff and MacKenzie Bezos and the former's tawdry affair with TV personality Lauren Sanchez -  by praising the National Enquirer's work in breaking the story of Bezos' affair (and the many tawdry details that have since been reported).    "So sorry to hear the news about Jeff Bozo," the president tweeted, using a play on the tech CEOs name.  In a remark that will undoubtedly irk Bezos, Trump gloated about how the WaPo owner - a paper that Trump has derided as a "lobbyist newspaper" - was taken down by a competitor "whose reporting, I understand, is far more accurate than...the Amazon Washington Post."Referencing the impending division of assets between the couple, which could result in MacKenzie Bezos becoming the world's richest woman, Trump added that "hopefully the paper will soon be placed in better & more responsible hands!"So sorry to hear the news about Jeff Bozo being taken down by a competitor whose reporting, I understand, is far more accurate than the reporting in his lobbyist newspaper, the Amazon Washington Post. Hopefully the paper will soon be placed in better & more responsible hands!  — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 14, 2019  During a press conference last week, Trump said he expected the Bezos' divorce to be "a beauty". And Trump - no stranger to high-profile divorces - would be one to talk.

The FBI’s police state operation against Trump  - A front-page article published Saturday in the New York Times revealing that the FBI secretly opened a counterintelligence investigation into President Donald Trump after he fired FBI Director James Comey has laid bare a massive police state conspiracy by the US intelligence agencies.The Times published the article in an effort to revive the anti-Russia campaign against Trump, promoting the unsubstantiated and highly dubious claim that Trump is a Russian agent. The facts presented in the Times report are, in reality, far more damning of the FBI than of Trump.Despite the newspaper’s intentions, the picture painted by the Times of the FBI is alarming. The Times depicts a highly politicized intelligence agency whose officials carefully monitor the activities of the two main capitalist parties, keeping a vigilant eye out for any deviations from the national security consensus in Washington.The Times claims that Trump “had caught the attention of FBI counterintelligence agents when he called on Russia during a campaign news conference in July 2016 to hack the emails of his opponent, Hillary Clinton.” Given that this was a sarcastic campaign remark directed against Clinton’s use of a private email server while she was secretary of state, and delivered at a public news conference, Trump’s sally can hardly be construed as evidence of a conspiracy.The Times article goes on to describe how FBI officials monitored the platform adopted at the Republican National Convention, reporting that the spy agency “watched with alarm as the Republican Party softened its convention platform on the Ukraine crisis in a way that seemed to benefit Russia.” That is, the nation’s top police agency was concerned that the positions adopted contravened certain basic tenets of dominant sections of the foreign policy establishment. By what constitutional authority can the FBI, based on political positions adopted by one or the other of the two main capitalist parties, open up a secret investigation into treason and conspiracy? Such an operation bespeaks a police state and recalls the methods of the Stalinist NKVD.

Transcripts detail how FBI debated whether Trump was 'following directions' of Russia - In the chaotic aftermath at the FBI following Director James Comey's firing, a half-dozen senior FBI officials huddled to set in motion the momentous move to open an investigation into President Donald Trump that included trying to understand why he was acting in ways that seemed to benefit Russia. They debated a range of possibilities, according to portions of transcripts of two FBI officials' closed-door congressional interviews obtained by CNN. On one end was the idea that Trump fired Comey at the behest of Russia. On the other was the possibility that Trump didn't have an improper relationship with the Kremlin and was acting within the bounds of his executive authority, the transcripts show. James Baker, then-FBI general counsel, said the FBI officials were contemplating with regard to Russia whether Trump was "acting at the behest of and somehow following directions, somehow executing their will."  "That was one extreme. The other extreme is that the President is completely innocent, and we discussed that too," Baker told House investigators last year. "There's a range of things this could possibly be. We need to investigate, because we don't know whether, you know, the worst-case scenario is possibly true or the President is totally innocent and we need to get this thing over with — and so he can move forward with his agenda."

Trump Goes On Epic Tweetstorm After NYT Reveals FBI "Witch Hunt" Escalation Following Comey Firing - President Trump on Saturday lashed out after a Friday evening report in the New York Times that US law enforcement officials "became so concerned by the president's behavior" in the days after Trump fired James Comey as FBI director, that "they began investigating whether he had been working on behalf of Russia against American interests."  According to the NYT, agents and senior F.B.I. officials "had grown suspicious of Mr. Trump’s ties to Russia during the 2016 campaign" but held off on opening an investigation into him, the people said, in part because they were uncertain how to proceed with an inquiry of such sensitivity and magnitude. Responding to the "bombshell" NYT report - which curiously resurrects the "Russian collusion" narrative right as Trump is set to test his Presidential authority over the border wall, the president lashed out over Twitter. Wow, just learned in the Failing New York Times that the corrupt former leaders of the FBI, almost all fired or forced to leave the agency for some very bad reasons, opened up an investigation on me, for no reason & with no proof, after I fired Lyin’ James Comey, a total sleaze!"Funny thing about James Comey. Everybody wanted him fired, Republican and Democrat alike. After the rigged & botched Crooked Hillary investigation, where she was interviewed on July 4th Weekend, not recorded or sworn in, and where she said she didn’t know anything (a lie), the FBI was in complete turmoil (see N.Y. Post) because of Comey’s poor leadership and the way he handled the Clinton mess (not to mention his usurpation of powers from the Justice Department). My firing of James Comey was a great day for America. He was a Crooked Cop who is being totally protected by his best friend, Bob Mueller, & the 13 Angry Democrats - leaking machines who have NO interest in going after the Real Collusion (and much more) by Crooked Hillary Clinton, her Campaign, and the Democratic National Committee. Just Watch!  I have been FAR tougher on Russia than Obama, Bush or Clinton. Maybe tougher than any other President. At the same time, & as I have often said, getting along with Russia is a good thing, not a bad thing. I fully expect that someday we will have good relations with Russia again!

The FBI’s Investigation of Trump as a “National Security Threat” is Itself a Serious Danger. But J. Edgar Hoover Pioneered the Tactic - Last week, the New York Times reported that the FBI, in 2017, launched an investigation of President Trump “to consider whether the president’s own actions constituted a possible threat to national security” and specifically “whether he had been working on behalf of Russia against American interests.” The story was predictably treated as the latest in an endless line of Beginning-of-the-End disasters for the Trump presidency, though – as usual – this melodrama was accomplished by steadfastly ignoring the now-standard, always-buried paragraph pointing out the boring fact that no actual evidence of guilt has yet emerged: The lack of any evidence of guilt has never dampened the excitement over Trump/Russia innuendo, and it certainly did not do so here. Beyond being construed as some sort of vindication for the most deranged version of Manchurian Candidate fantasies – because, after all, the FBI would never investigate anyone unless they were guilty – the FBI’s investigation of the President as a national security threat was also treated as some sort of unprecedented event in U.S. history. “This is, without exception, the worst scandal in the history of the United States,” pronounced NBC News’ resident ex-CIA operative, who – along with a large staple of former security state agents employed by that network – is now paid to “analyze” and shape the news. The FBI’s counterintelligence investigation of Trump is far from the first time that the FBI has monitored, surveilled and investigated U.S. elected officials who the agency had decided harboerd suspect loyalties and were harming national security. The FBI specialized in such conduct for decades under J. Edgar Hoover, who ran the agency for 48 years and whose name the agency’s Washington headquarters continues to feature in its name.

Apparently, the FBI, and not the CIA, are the real government. - Just to review the situation:

• 1.  The president of the US was made head of the Executive Branch (EC) of the federal government by Article 2 of the present constitution of the US.   The Department of Justice is just another Executive Branch Department subordinate in all things to the president.  The FBI is a federal police force and counter-intelligence agency subordinate to the Department of Justice and DNI and therefore to the president in all things.  The FBI actually has no legal right whatever to investigate the president.  He is the constitutionally elected commander of the FBI.  Does one investigate one's commander?  No.  The procedures for legally and constitutionally removing a president from office for malfeasance are clear.  He must be impeached by the House of Representatives for "High Crimes and Misdemeanors" and then tried by the US Senate on the charges.  Conviction results in removal from office.
• 2.  According to these transcripts of congressional testimony by some of the participants, the FBI decided all by itself after Comey was fired to consider acting against Trump by pursuing him for suspicion of conspiracy with Russia to give the Russians the president of the US that they supposedly wanted.  Part of the discussions among senior FBI people had to do with whether or not the president had the legal authority to remove from office an FBI Director.  Say what?  Where have these dummies been all their careers? Do they not teach anything about this at the FBI Academy?  The US Army lectures its officers at every level of schooling on the subject of the constitutional and legal basis and limits of their authority.
• 3.  Following these seditious and IMO illegal discussions the FBI and Sessions/Rosenstein's Justice Department sought FISA Court warrants for surveillance against associates of Trump and members of his campaign for president.  Their application for warrants were largely based on unsubstantiated "opposition research" funded by the Democratic Party and the Clinton campaign.  The judge who approved the warrants was not informed of the nature of the evidence.  These warrants provided an authority for surveillance of the Trump campaign.
• 4.  IMO this collection of actions when added to whatever Clapper, Brennan and "the lads" of the Deep State were doing with the British intelligence services amount to an attempted "soft coup" against the constitution and from the continued stonewalling of the FBI and DoJ the coup is ongoing. 

  Barr Says No Witch Hunt Against Trump; Shocked By FBI Agents' Texts About Trump - President Trump's nominee for Attorney General, Bill Barr, told lawmakers during his confirmation hearings on Tuesday that he was "shocked" after reading anti-Trump text messages between former FBI employees Peter Strzok and Lisa Page, and that he had never heard of the FBI launching a counterintelligence investigation on a President based on a political decision, as was reported last Friday by the New York Times.  Graham reads some of the Peter Strzok/Lisa Page texts criticizing Trump and about stopping him from being elected, and asks what Barr's reaction was to them. Barr says he was "shocked." Graham asks if he'll look into what happened in 2016, and Barr says yes  — Zoe Tillman (@ZoeTillman) January 15, 2019  When asked about the Special Counsel investigation headed up by his "best friend" Robert Mueller, Barr said "I don't believe Mr. Mueller would be involved in a witch hunt," and that "On my watch, Bob will be allowed to finish his work."   Barr also said that the Trump administration would not be allowed to "correct" the Mueller report before a public release, stating "That will not happen."  Last week Sen. Lindsey Graham (SC) met with Barr, and said that the AG nominee has a "high opinion" of Mueller, and that Barr told him that he and Mueller worked together when Barr was Bush's attorney general between 1991 and 1993 when Mueller oversaw the DOJ's criminal division. Graham added that the two men were "best friends" who have known each other for 20 years, and that their wives have attended Bible study together.  Mueller also attended the weddings of two of Barr's daughters.

New Trump-Russia subplot: Mueller and Barr are ‘good friends’ - The president’s pick to replace Jeff Sessions at the helm of the Justice Department has known and admired the president’s bête noire, Robert Mueller, for 30 years — and somehow President Donald Trump seems fine with that.The relationship, which Barr described in public Tuesday during his Senate confirmation hearing, is both a source of reassurance to Democrats worried about Barr’s attitude toward Mueller’s probe and a reminder of the small size of Washington’s legal and law enforcement worlds.   Why it isn’t more troubling to Trump, who, Barr said, is aware of the relationship, remains a mystery.   Barr and Mueller first crossed paths at the Justice Department during the George H.W. Bush administration. But the relationship goes further: Their wives are close friends who attend Bible study together, and Mueller attended the weddings of two of Barr’s daughters. “They have a high level of respect for each other,” said Paul McNulty, a former senior DOJ official who led the department’s policy and communications shop while Barr was attorney general and Mueller served as the head of its Criminal Division. “They have maintained a good friendship ever since.” During his Senate confirmation hearing, Barr praised Mueller’s “distinguished record of public service” and said the special counsel’s probe is proper and should be allowed to proceed without interference. That’s a sharp contrast to the acting attorney general Barr would replace, Matthew Whitaker, who has calledMueller’s appointment “ridiculous and “a little fishy,” among other things.

Acting attorney general's wife emails reporter that Mueller investigation is 'wrapping up' - Marci Whitaker, the wife of acting Attorney General Matthew Whitaker, sent an email to a reporter pushing back on an article and said the special counsel investigation was by all accounts "wrapping up."Whitaker's email came in response to an article Mark Joseph Stern co-authored at Slate arguing that the Senate should not confirm William Barr, President Donald Trump's choice to lead the Justice Department, just to remove Whitaker as a threat to the special counsel probe led by Robert Mueller.Whitaker sent the email to Slate writer Mark Joseph Stern, who published it after saying the outlet's technology director "confirmed that the email originated from mail servers operated by her company."On the special counsel probe, Whitaker wrote, "It isn't really or shouldn't be that controversial to state that the Mueller investigation should stay within the parameters given. Particularly when that is said more than a year prior as the investigation is just beginning. Why would a person need to recuse oneself for that mild statement?"If abundance of caution is the standard, anyone who ever spent 5 minutes contemplating the topic would need to do so. And by all means, assume that a person who speculated on a hypothetical scenario would then put some dark plan into motion, when by all accounts, the investigation is wrapping up and they [sic] eyes of the nation are upon them." She ended her email with a postscript asking Stern not to use her work email address and phone number "in any ill manner," noting the effects of the ongoing government shutdown. The Justice Department is among the portions of government operating without new funding until an agreement is reached.

 Lawmakers Seek Updates As FBI's Former Top Lawyer Undergoes Active Criminal Investigation - House Republicans revealed that the FBI's former top lawyer, James Baker, has been under active federal investigation for leaking information to the media. A Monday letter from GOP Reps. Jim Jordan and Mark Meadows to Connecticut US attorney John Durham asks for an update on the leak probe. The investigation was revealed to Jordan and Meadows during Congressional investigations, when Baker's attorney, Daniel Levin, refused to let him answer lawmakers' questions. "I’m sorry, I’m going to cut – not let him answer these questions right now," Levin interjected when Jordan asked about Baker's interactions with reporters. "You may or may not know, he’s been the subject of a leak investigation which is still – a criminal leak investigation that’s still active at the Justice Department," Levin continued. Meadows cut in, asking "You’re saying he’s under criminal investigation? That’s why you’re not letting him answer?" to which Levin replied "Yes." While the subject of the media leaks is unknown, a confidential source told the Daily Caller's Chuck Ross that the leak investigation is a nothingburger. "I’m 100 percent confident they did not find any wrongdoing," said the source, adding that the investigation discussed during the hearing "is not a new or reopened investigation" separate of the one reported in December 2017 by the Washington Post. Levin’s exchange with Republicans followed after Baker discussed interactions he had with Mother Jones reporter David Corn, who met with dossier author Christopher Steele prior to the 2016 election. It is unclear what alleged leak Baker was under investigated for. A spokesman for Durham declined comment. 

Giuliani: 'I never said there was no collusion' between the Trump campaign and Russia - President Trump's personal attorney, Rudy Giuliani, said Wednesday that he "never said there was no collusion" between the Trump campaign and Russia, claiming only that Trump himself was not involved in collusion. “I never said there was no collusion between the campaign. Or between people in the campaign," Giuliani said on CNN's "Cuomo Prime Time," after host Chris Cuomo said it was false to suggest there was no collusion between Trump's presidential campaign and the Kremlin. Giuliani added that he has only said Trump, rather than his campaign, did not collude with the Russians. "There is not a single bit of evidence the president of the United States committed the only crime you could commit here, conspiring with the Russians to hack the [Democratic National Committee]," Giuliani said. “The president did not collude with the Russians," he added. Giuliani added that if “the collusion happened, it happened a long time ago.” “It's not provable because it never happened. … I’m telling you there’s no chance it happened,” he added.

House votes 362-53 to disapprove Trump lifting of sanctions on Russian companies --In a major rebuke of President Trump, the House overwhelming passed a resolution Thursday formally disapproving of the Trump administration's rolling back of sanctions on companies owned by Oleg Deripaska, an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin. In a 362-53 vote, the House sounded its disapproval of the lifting of sanctions, with 130 Republicans breaking with Trump and backing the Democratic measure.The vote comes after legislation to prevent the rolling back of sanctions failed Wednesday on a procedural vote in the Senate. Eleven Republicans voted in the Senate to prevent the lifting of sanctions.The administration had lobbied hard against the effort to stop the lifting of sanctions. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin visited the Senate GOP on Tuesday. The Senate vote means the administration can go ahead with lifting sanctions on the companies connected to Deripaska.

Trump directed Cohen to lie to Congress about plans to build Trump Tower in Moscow during 2016 campaign: report - President Trump reportedly directed his former longtime lawyer Michael Cohen to lie to Congress about the effort to build a Trump Tower in Moscow during the 2016 presidential campaign.Two federal law enforcement officials who were reportedly involved in an investigation into the matter confirmed the news in a report published by Buzzfeed News Thursday night.The two sources also told BuzzFeed News that Trump backed a plan by Cohen to visit Russia in the months leading up to the presidential election to launch negotiations surrounding the construction effort and to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin.“Make it happen,” Trump allegedly told Cohen around the time.Cohen first admitted to lying to Congress about Trump’s Moscow property plans, including plans he made about traveling to Russia and how long the property plans were discussed within the Trump Organization, in November 2018. Cohen made the misstatements when testifying before two congressional intelligence committees the year before.At the time, special counsel Robert Mueller reportedly noted that the lawyer’s false claim about the project ending in January 2016 was an effort to "minimize links between the Moscow Project and Individual 1 in hopes of limiting the ongoing Russia investigations.” Now, both sources allege that Cohen also told Mueller that Trump personally directed him to lie after his election about the timing of when the negotiations involving the project ended in efforts to obscure the president’s involvement. 

Trump "Personally Instructed" Michael Cohen To Lie To Congress About Moscow Project: BuzzFeed - President Trump instructed his former longtime attorney Michael Cohen to lie to congress about negotiations to construct a Moscow Trump Tower, according to BuzzFeed, citing two federal law enforcement officials who leaked the information.Trump also supported a plan hatched by Cohen to visit Russia during the 2016 presidential campaign in order to personally meet Vladimir Putin to see if it would help get the project off the ground. "Make it happen," Trump allegedly told Cohen. And even as Trump told the public he had no business deals with Russia, the sources said Trump and his children, Ivanka and Donald Trump Jr., received regular, detailed updates about the real estate development from Cohen, whom they put in charge of the project. -BuzzFeedAccording to BuzzFeed, Cohen told special counsel Robert Mueller that after the election, "Trump personally instructed him to lie" - by claiming that the Trump Tower Moscow negotiations had ended months before they actually had. The special counsel's office also allegedly learned about Trump's insructions to lie "through interviews with multiple witnesses from the Trump Organization and internal company emails, text messages, and a cache of other documents," which Cohen reportedly confirmed. This revelation is not the first evidence to suggest the president may have attempted to obstruct the FBI and special counsel investigations into Russia’s interference in the 2016 election. But Cohen's testimony marks a significant new frontier: It is the first known example of Trump explicitly telling a subordinate to lie directly about his own dealings with Russia. –BuzzFeed

Michael Cohen Says He Tried To Rig Online Polls ‘at the Direction’ of Donald Trump - President Donald Trump's former personal lawyer and longtime fixer Michael Cohen on Thursday said he tried to rig online polls — including one conducted by CNBC — "at the direction and for the sole benefit of" Trump when he was thinking about making a run for the White House."I truly regret my blind loyalty to a man who doesn't deserve it," Cohen said in a tweet copping to the electronic chicanery to have Trump's name rank higher in online polls than it otherwise would have.Cohen's admission came shortly after The Wall Street Journal published a story detailing how he retained an information technology company to manipulate a 2014 CNBC online poll identifying the nation's top 100 business leaders to bolster Trump's chances of making that list.That effort failed. And Trump himself fumed in 2014 on Twitter about his absence from CNBC's poll results.A second similar effort related to rig a Drudge Report poll of potential Republican candidates worked, according to the Journal. Trump placed fifth in that poll, conducted in February 2015, before he announced his candidacy for the White House.The Journal reported that a man named John Gauger, owner of RedFinch Solutions and chief information officer of Liberty University in Virginia, was given more than $12,000 by Cohen in 2015 for having helped rig online polls to boost Trump's ranking in them. The Journal's article cites Gauger as a source for its report. CNBC in an article last August noted that Cohen in January 2017 reported a $50,000 expense to the Trump Organization for a payment Cohen made in 2016 to help Trump. The payment was for work that prosecutors said Cohen "solicited from a technology company during and in connection with the campaign." Gauger was quoted by the Journal on Thursday as saying that he was never paid more than $13,000 by Cohen despite being owed more for his work. But Cohen still asked for and received "a $50,000 reimbursement from Mr. Trump and his company for the work by RedFinch," the Journal reported, citing government documents and a person familiar with the matter.

Trump calls Cohen a liar after bombshell BuzzFeed report - President Trump on Friday accused his former personal attorney Michael Cohen of lying to reduce his prison time after BuzzFeed News reported that federal investigators have evidence he directed Cohen to lie to Congress about plans to build a Trump property in Moscow. Trump, after quoting a Fox News reporter noting that Cohen had been convicted on perjury and fraud charges, tweeted that Cohen is “lying to reduce his jail time,” an argument he has previously used to cast his former lawyer as untrustworthy. Trump also suggested Cohen’s father-in-law be “watched,” echoing previous comments he made to Fox News’s Jeanine Pirro that Cohen “should give information maybe on his father-in-law, because that’s the one that people want to look at.” BuzzFeed, citing two federal law enforcement officials, reported late Thursday that special counsel Robert Mueller has witness testimony, internal Trump Organization emails and other evidence suggesting Trump directed Cohen to lie to Congress about the Trump Moscow plans. Cohen has also reportedly testified to the special counsel that Trump told him to lie. Other news outlets have not confirmed BuzzFeed’s reporting. Trump did not directly address the allegations on Friday morning but repeated his past characterization of Cohen as a liar. “Lying to reduce his jail time!” Trump wrote on Twitter Friday morning. “Watch father-in-law!” Cohen pleaded guilty in November to lying to the House and Senate Intelligence Committees in the course of their investigations into Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election and agreed to cooperate with Mueller’s ongoing probe.

Intel Dem: Trump must resign or be impeached if Cohen report is true -- Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-Texas) called for President Trump to resign or be impeached if a report about him directing his former longtime lawyer Michael Cohen to lie to Congress is true.   Castro, a member of the House Intelligence Committee, was referring to a report published by BuzzFeed News on Thursday night regarding Cohen’s misstatements to Congress. Two federal law enforcement officials who were reportedly involved in an investigation into the matter told the outlet that Trump directed Cohen to lie to Congress about an effort to build a Trump Tower in Moscow during the 2016 presidential campaign. Trump also reportedly supported a plan by Cohen to visit Russia to launch negotiations about the construction effort shortly before the 2016 presidential election. The then-candidate also supported a plan to have Cohen meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin during the trip, BuzzFeed reported. “Make it happen,” Trump allegedly told Cohen around the time. Cohen admitted in November to making misstatements about the Trump Moscow property plans while testifying before two congressional intelligence committees. He said he lied about his travel plans and how long the project was discussed with Trump Organization officials before the election. Sources told BuzzFeed News that Trump personally directed Cohen to lie to special counsel Robert Mueller’s team about the projects in an effort to obscure his own involvement.

Rosenstein, DOJ exploring ways to more easily spy on journalists - For months now, the Department of Justice (DOJ) quietly has been working on a revision to its guidelines governing how, when and why prosecutors can obtain the records of journalists, particularly in leak cases.The work has been supervised by Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein’s office, especially since former Attorney General Jeff Sessions departed, but is not wrapped up.The effort has the potential to touch off a First Amendment debate with a press corps that already has high degrees of distrust of and disfunction with the Trump administration.Acting Attorney General Matt Whitaker is aware of the effort but has not been given a final recommendation. Sources close to Whitaker say he will await final judgment but, in recent days, has developed reservations about proceeding with the plan.“After a lengthy period of turmoil and regular criticism from President Trump, DOJ has enjoyed a period of calm normalcy that has put employees’ focus back on their work and not the next tweet. Matt doesn’t want to disrupt that unless a strong legal case can be made,” a source close to the acting AG told me.The current guidelines have their origins back to a time when Bill Clintonwas president and Janet Reno was attorney general, long before WikiLeaks was a twinkle in Julian Assange’s eye. They were designed to strike a balance between law enforcement’s investigative interests and the First Amendment rights of reporters. In layman’s terms, the current system requires prosecutors in most cases to exhaust all obvious investigative methods for identifying leaks before seeking to intrude on a journalist’s free-speech rights. In addition, the rules generally have required DOJ to alert news organizations in advance of a possible subpoena, giving both sides a chance to negotiate before the subpoena — viewed as a nuclear button by most journalists — gets pushed. Multiple sources familiar with the ongoing DOJ review tell me that it has two main goals. The first is to lower the threshold that prosecutors must meet before requesting subpoenas for journalists’ records; the second is to eliminate the need to alert a media organization that Justice intends to issue a subpoena.

Narrative Control Firm Targeting Alternative Media - Caitlin Johnstone - The frenzied, hysterical Russia narrative being promoted day in and day out by Western mass media has had two of its major stories ripped to shreds in the last three days.  A report seeded throughout the mainstream media by anonymous intelligence officials back in September claimed that U.S. government workers in Cuba had suffered concussion-like brain damage after hearing strange noises in homes and hotels with the most likely culprit being “sophisticated microwaves or another type of electromagnetic weapon” from Russia. A recording of one such highly sophisticated attack was analyzed by scientists and turned out to be the mating call of the male indies short-tailed cricket. Neurologists and other brain specialists have challenged the claim that any U.S. government workers suffered any neurological damage of any kind, saying test results on the alleged victims were misinterpreted. The actual story, when stripped of hyperventilating Russia panic, is that some government workers heard some crickets in Cuba.Another report which dominated news for a day recently claimed that former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort (the same Paul Manafort who the Guardian falsely claimed met with Julian Assange in the Ecuadorian embassy) had shared polling data with a Russian associate and asked him to pass it along to Oleg Deripaska, who is often labeled a “Russian oligarch” by western media. The polling data was mostly public already, and the rest was just more polling information shared in the spring of 2016, but Deripaska’s involvement had Russiagaters burning the midnight oil with breathless excitement. Talking Points Memo‘s Josh Marshall went so far as to publish an article titled “The ‘Collusion’ Debate Ended Last Night,” substantiating his click-generating headline with the claim that “What’s crystal clear is that the transfer to Kilimnik came with explicit instructions to give the information to Deripaska. And that’s enough.” Except Manafort didn’t give any explicit instructions to share the polling data with Deripaska, but with two Ukrainian oligarchs (who are denying it). The New York Times was forced to print this embarrassing correction to the story it broke, adding in the process that Manafort’s motivation was likely not collusion, but money.

Federal Judge Orders Rhodes, Rice, & Other Obama Officials To Respond Over Clinton Benghazi/Email Scandal - In what Judicial Watch describes as a "major victory for accountability," a federal judge ruled Tuesday that former national security adviser Susan Rice and former deputy national security adviser Ben Rhodes must answer written questions about the State Department's response to the deadly 2012 terror attack in Benghazi, Libya, as part of an ongoing legal battle over whether Hillary Clinton sought to deliberately evade public record laws by using a private email server while secretary of state. As Fox News' Samuel Chamberlain reports, the judge's order amounts to approval of a discovery plan he ordered last month. In that ruling, Lamberth wrote that Clinton's use of a private email account was "one of the gravest modern offenses to government transparency" and said the response of the State and Justice Departments "smacks of outrageous misconduct."Judicial Watch announced last night that United States District Judge Royce C. Lamberth ruled that discovery can begin in Hillary Clinton’s email scandal. Obama administration senior State Department officials, lawyers, and Clinton aides will now be deposed under oath. Senior officials - including Susan Rice, Ben Rhodes, Jacob Sullivan, and FBI official E.W. Priestap - will now have to answer Judicial Watch’s written questions under oath. The court rejected the DOJ and State Department’s objections to Judicial Watch’s court-ordered discovery plan. (The court, in ordering a discovery plan last month, ruledthat the Clinton email system was “one of the gravest modern offenses to government transparency.”)Judicial Watch’s discovery will seek answers to:

• Whether Clinton intentionally attempted to evade the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) by using a non-government email system;
• whether the State Department’s efforts to settle this case beginning in late 2014 amounted to bad faith; and
• whether the State Department adequately searched for records responsive to Judicial Watch’s FOIA request.

Discovery is scheduled to be completed within 120 days. The court will hold a post-discovery hearing to determine if Judicial Watch may also depose additional witnesses, including Clinton and her former Chief of Staff Cheryl Mills.

 T-Mobile announced a merger needing Trump administration approval. The next day, 9 executives had reservations at Trump’s hotel. - Last April, telecom giant T-Mobile announced a megadeal: a $26 billion merger with rival Sprint, which would more than double T-Mobile’s value and give it a huge new chunk of the cellphone market. But for T-Mobile, one hurdle remained: Its deal needed approval from the Trump administration. The next day, in Washington, staffers at the Trump International Hotel were handed a list of incoming “VIP Arrivals.” That day’s list included nine of T-Mobile’s top executives — including its chief operating officer, chief technology officer, chief strategy officer and chief financial officer, and its outspoken celebrity chief executive, John Legere. The executives had scheduled stays of up to three days. But it was not their last visit. Instead, T-Mobile executives have returned to President Trump’s hotel repeatedly since then, according to eyewitnesses and hotel documents obtained by The Washington Post. By mid-June, seven weeks after the announcement of the merger, hotel records indicated that one T-Mobile executive was making his 10th visit to the hotel. Legere appears to have made at least four visits to the Trump hotel, walking the lobby in his T-Mobile gear. These visits highlight a stark reality in Washington, unprecedented in modern American history. Trump the president works at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Trump the businessman owns a hotel at 1100 Pennsylvania. Countries, interest groups and companies such as T-Mobile — whose future will be shaped by the administration’s choices — are free to stop at both, and to pay the president’s company while also meeting with officials in his government. Such visits raise questions about whether patronizing Trump’s private business is viewed as a way to influence public policy, critics said. 

Ivanka Trump to Help Select Nominee for World Bank President - Wall Street Journal -- Ivanka Trump, President Trump’s daughter and senior White House adviser, will help Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and acting chief of staff Mick Mulvaney lead the process of selecting the next World Bank president.  Ms. Trump isn’t a candidate for the position but will “help manage the U.S. nomination process as she’s worked closely with the World Bank’s leadership for the past two years,” according a White House representative.

Warren demands details on Mnuchin's December calls to bank CEOs — Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., is asking Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin why he called chief executives of the six largest U.S. banks to confirm they had adequate liquidity in the midst of market turmoil in December. “The public announcement of these calls was a rare step for a Treasury Secretary to take,” Warren said in her letter to Mnuchin dated Jan. 18. “Moreover, your calls sought to assuage a concern — the liquidity of banks — that neither banking regulators nor executives had publicly indicated was a problem.” The Treasury Department announced the calls on Dec. 23 during a series of sizable declines in market indexes, stating that the CEOs had “confirmed that they have ample liquidity available for lending to consumer, business markets, and all other market operations.” But revelations of those calls seemed to raise more questions about the state of the financial system. Following Treasury's announcement, the S&P 500 declined by 2.7%. Mnuchin's calls also came amid reports that President Trump was weighing whether he could fire Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell, and at the beginning of the partial government shutdown. Warren separately wrote to the chief executives of Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo and Bank of America asking for more details about their discussions with Mnuchin and who else participated in the calls. In her letter to Mnuchin, Warren asked about what risks to the banking system triggered his concerns and prompted his statement; a summary of the conversation with each bank executive, why he called a meeting with the working group on financial markets and a summary of those discussions; and if the Treasury Department has information that financial institutions are facing liquidity risks, clearance or margin risks, or other risks to market operations that could negatively impact the U.S. economy.

Warren asks big banks for details on their shutdown response — Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., pressed the five largest U.S. retail banks Wednesday on details about what the firms are doing to reduce the effects of the partial government shutdown on furloughed government employees. Warren, a member of the Senate Banking Committee and potential 2020 presidential hopeful, said in a letter to Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, U.S. Bancorp and Wells Fargo that the challenge for furloughed federal employees is now reaching “critical” proportions. “The shutdown is now in its [26th] day — the longest in history — and over 800,000 federal workers have either been furloughed or forced to work without pay,” Warren wrote. “In addition, hundreds of thousands of federal contract workers, businesses that are dependent on these workers, and large and small businesses in need of federal government services are also facing lost paychecks and profits — with some on the brink of financial ruin.”  Warren noted that bank regulators — including the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., Federal Reserve, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and National Credit Union Administration — sent advisories to their members asking them “to consider prudent workout arrangements that increase the potential for creditworthy borrowers to meet their obligations.” “I agree with these regulators, and was pleased to see many credit unions and banks that serve federal employees act quickly to help them,” Warren said. “But small banks and credit unions should not be the only financial services providers assisting federal workers during the shutdown.” She also acknowledged that the largest banks are already taking some actions.

Is something missing from the U.S. regulatory toolbox? — As U.S. regulators take steps to rightsize the post-crisis regulatory regime — emphasizing risks posed by the largest institutions and tailoring rules for smaller firms — a key bloc of the regulatory brain trust still sees a weakness in its tool chest. The current and former chairs of the Federal Reserve Board, speaking together on a panel at a recent conference in Atlanta, highlighted how other countries still have more effective policy levers to respond to macroprudential risks that can creep up out of nowhere. "We’re not strong in having tools that we can turn off and on," Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at the American Economic Association conference, where he was joined by former chairs Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke. "And frankly that’s just a fact of life for us,” Powell added. Jerome Powell and Janet Yellen "We’re not strong in having tools that we can turn off and on," said Fed Chair Jerome Powell. His predecessor, Janet Yellen, said, “I actually think in the United States we have a shortage of macroprudential tools.” Bloomberg News Powell was echoing a point made by Yellen, his predecessor, who asserted that one of the shortcomings of the post-crisis regulatory reforms in the U.S. is that regulators were not given certain policy tools that are useful in other countries. In Canada, for example, and in Britain and elsewhere, central banks can set loan-to-value ratios for mortgages if regulators think the market is becoming a bubble. “I actually think in the United States we have a shortage of macroprudential tools,” Yellen said. “While we have made the system year in and year out more resilient, if we were to see a threat like house prices rising, we were concerned that a bubble is developing, many countries have tools that a financial stability board could invoke.” Yellen added that the lack of such tools in the U.S. “worries” her, as does a provision in the Dodd-Frank Act that curbed the Fed’s emergency lending powers to make it harder for the agency to provide emergency liquidity to a failing institution. “Although the Fed got new tools, if there were a problem in a systemic institution that would help to resolve a systemically important nonbank — say an investment banking sub of a bank holding company — we’ve lost some of the emergency lending powers that were used during the downturn,” Yellen said.

Mucking through the Wall Street Banks’ Earnings This Week -  Pam Martens - If you’ve ever mucked horse stalls full of smelly manure, you’re better prepared for this week.  Yesterday, the inscrutable Citigroup ushered in the week of mind-numbing fourth-quarter earnings reports from the financial supermarkets/commercial banks/insurance companies/brokerage firms/investment banks/derivative warehouses that have combined under one highly combustible roof, using the simple moniker Wall Street bank.  Citigroup’s big reveal was that it had missed analysts’ revenue expectations by half a billion dollars – not exactly small change. The bank reported $17.1 billion in revenue in the fourth quarter versus average analyst expectations for $17.6 billion. That was mostly owing to a 21 percent decline in fixed income trading.Its net profits were clearly helped by its report that it had used a big chunk of its capital not to make loans to worthy businesses but to repurchase 74 million shares of its own stock in the fourth quarter and a whopping 212 million shares for all of 2018. Fourth quarter net earnings came in at $4.3 billion or $1.64 per share. Excluding the impact of President Trump’s generous tax cut gift to corporations, net income was $4.2 billion or $1.61 per share. For the full year of 2018, Citigroup reported net income of $18.0 billion on revenues of $72.9 billion, compared to a net loss of $6.8 billion on revenues of $72.4 billion for the full year of 2017. But here’s where things really get interesting. According to Citigroup, its “allowance for loan losses was $12.3 billion at quarter end, or 1.81% of total loans, compared to $12.4 billion, or 1.86% of total loans, at the end of the prior-year period.” In other words, despite the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates four times in 2018, which should have led to an increase in troubled loans, Citigroup was able to reduce the money it had set aside for loan loss provisions. And that’s not because its loans were reduced. Citigroup reported $684 billion in loans as of December 31, 2018, an increase of 3 percent over December 31, 2017.

 Is Jamie Dimon warning of a downturn? - JPMorgan Chase reported what bankers want to see when it comes to lending — solid growth. But Jamie Dimon followed up with a message bankers don’t like to hear: Start preparing for a slowdown. JPMorgan raised its loan-loss reserves by more than $300 million in the fourth quarter, compared with a reserve-build of about $100 million in the previous quarter. The reserves were almost evenly split between consumer and commercial loans. On the surface it seems a curious move. After all, the New York bank’s total loans rose 6% to $984.6 billion. And Dimon said during a Tuesday morning conference call that “credit is pristine" while "underwriting standards are pretty good.” But the stock market swung wildly in December for a reason: Investors are worried that a recession could occur sooner rather than later. JPMorgan says it does not want to get caught flat-footed when that happens. “We tell our management that we have no problem seeing loan books shrink,” Dimon said during the call with analysts and investors. “Sometimes … you’re better off telling your sales force to play golf rather than to make new loans. We’re not going to be stupid.” Boosting its loan-loss reserves now, when credit quality is so strong, is a clear signal that Dimon believes things can only get worse from here, said Bain Rumohr, an analyst at Fitch Ratings. After all, JPMorgan’s net charge-off ratio was 1.04% in the fourth quarter. JPMorgan’s loan-loss provision also increased, rising to its highest level in three years. The provision climbed 18% from a year earlier to $1.6 billion. 

Goldman Says Rich People Will Drag Down the U.S. Economy by Spending Less -  The stock-market sell-off is going to be a significant drag on the U.S. economy this year as wealthy households feel its impact, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.Lower equity prices could take half a percentage point off U.S. gross-domestic product growth in 2019, with overall tighter financial conditions restricting expansion by around 1 percentage point, Goldman economist Daan Struyven wrote in a note Tuesday. In October, he had said the positive wealth effect from equity gains in 2017 and early 2018 had likely evaporated.“The hit to the wealth level from a 1 percent decline in stock prices is now about three times larger than in the late ’80s for the top-10 percent of households and a third larger for those in the 50-90th percentiles,” Struyven said, citing the increase in equity holdings as a share of disposable household income. Struyven argued against the idea that the wealth effect from the stock market might be limited due to a higher concentration of stock ownership than in previous decades, and a lower propensity to spend among rich households. To prove that this thesis doesn’t hold up, he cited increases in equity holdings, as well as a high sensitivity of luxury-goods spending to stock-market fortunes, as evidence.That’s at odds with a paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research in 2013 that finds “at best weak evidence of a link between stock-market wealth and consumption,” and asserts that the housing market has much more of a wealth effect. The share of personal consumption expenditures spent on jewelry is “highly correlated with moves in the stock market,” Struyven wrote in the Jan. 15 report.

Fed not an impediment to fintechs' charter ambitions: OCC's Otting — Comptroller of the Currency Joseph Otting on Wednesday downplayed concerns that applicants for the agency's new fintech charter may face resistance from the Federal Reserve Board. Some in the fintech industry are raising alarm that the Fed may balk at allowing holders of the new special-purpose charter into the payments system, which could reduce the overall value of the charter. But Otting, speaking to a roundtable of reporters, said no firm considering applying to the OCC has mentioned the Fed as a potential roadblock. He argued that a fintech firm has other avenues for processing payments than joining the Fed system. “I can tell you of the hundreds of meetings I’ve had with fintechs, not one has brought that issue up as an impediment,” Comptroller of the Currency Joseph Otting said of concerns about the Fed potentially barring OCC charter recipients from the payments system. Bloomberg News "I don’t view that as an impediment because most of these entities that today would apply to be a bank, many of them are operating today as a state-chartered or state-licensed lender and virtually all of them have a correspondent banking relationship with a large bank that gives them the ability to process checks and send wires,” he said. “I can tell you of the hundreds of meetings I’ve had with fintechs, not one has brought that issue up as an impediment.” Otting also said federal regulators will soon take another step toward updating their anti-money-laundering requirements by releasing changes to the agencies' Bank Secrecy Act compliance manual. He also signaled that a second regional bank may follow the agency's May guidance and make a formal leap into offering small-dollar installment loans, and reiterated his hope that the other agencies will join the OCC in a formal proposal to revamp the Community Reinvestment Act. Despite downplaying concerns about the Fed's role in fintechs' pursuit of a federal charter, Otting said formal clarity is needed from the central bank on whether charter holders could offer payment services directly.

Former SEC Attorney James Kidney Is Captured Regulators’ Worst Nightmare - A jaw-dropping video of a lecture James Kidney delivered at Lake Forest College outside of Chicago on October 12 arrived in our incoming email last Friday. The courage and frankness of that lecture took our breath away. It has also, no doubt, caused major ripples among the top brass at what is supposed to be the nation’s most formidable Wall Street cop, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).In the lecture, Kidney calls the leadership of the SEC when he worked there “self-serving cowards” who didn’t go after the higher ups on Wall Street following the crash of 2008 because they were simply “looking to move on, to return to their Wall Street job.” (We don’t think much has since changed at the SEC. See SEC Nominee Has Represented 8 of the 10 Largest Wall Street Banks in Past Three Years.)Kidney was a trial attorney at the SEC for 25 years until his retirement in 2014. He had never lost a case. According to Jesse Eisinger’s book, The Chickenshit Club, which features a full chapter on Kidney, in 2001 Kidney had “won the agency’s Irving M. Pollack Award,” named after the original head of enforcement at the SEC, “for his dedication to public service.”In other words, Kidney had enjoyed a stellar career at the SEC until one day in 2009 when a Goldman Sachs case, now infamously known as Abacus, was assigned to him. Abacus became a civil suit brought against Goldman Sachs and one of its lowly salesmen, Fabrice Tourre. Goldman Sachs settled its charges with a payment of $550 million and never went to trial. Not only did the corporation not stand trial, but neither did the American hedge fund owner, John Paulson, who, according to Kidney, plotted with Goldman Sachs to create a bundled pool of assets designed to fail so that he could make  $1 billion betting against it (known as shorting). Unsuspecting investors lost approximately the same $1 billion that Paulson’s hedge fund made.Tourre was found guilty by a Manhattan jury on six out of seven fraud counts and agreed to pay more than $825,000 in fines. He was never criminally charged and did not go to jail. The Abacus case put Kidney on a course to deliver a blistering assessment of the SEC at his retirement party in 2014, setting off pandemonium inside the SEC when the speech went viral at major media outlets. In the speech, Kidney blamed the demoralization at the agency on its revolving door to Wall Street. The best SEC lawyers, according to Kidney, “see no place to go in the agency and eventually decide they are just going to get their own ticket to a law firm or corporate job punched.”

Hackers Broke Into An SEC Database and Made Millions From Inside Information, Says DOJ - Federal prosecutors unveiled charges in an international stock-trading scheme that involved hacking into the Securities and Exchange Commission’s EDGAR corporate filing system. The scheme allegedly netted $4.1 million for fraudsters from the U.S., Russia and Ukraine. Using 157 corporate earnings announcements, the group was able to execute trades on material nonpublic information. Most of those filings were “test filings,” which corporations upload to the SEC’s website. The charges were announced Tuesday by Craig Carpenito, U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey, alongside the SEC, the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the U.S. Secret Service, which investigates financial crimes.The scheme involves seven individuals and operated from May to at least October 2016. Prosecutors said the traders were part of the same group that previously hacked into newswire services.Carpenito, in a press conference Tuesday, said the thefts included thousands of valuable, private business documents. “After hacking into the EDGAR system they stole drafts of [these] reports before the information was disseminated to the general public,” he said. Those documents included quarterly earnings, mergers and acquisitions plans and other sensitive news, and the criminals were able to view it before it was released as a public filing, thus affecting the individual companies’ stock prices. The alleged hackers executed trades on the reports and also sold them to other illicit traders. One inside trader made $270,000 in a single day, according to Carpenito.

Over 773 Million Emails, 21 Million Passwords Have Been Leaked Online — Security expert Troy Hunt has exposed a the largest publication of breached data in history, affecting over 770 million email addresses and 21 million passwords. The new finding, called “Collection #1” by Hunt, consists of 2.6 billion rows and is made up of “many different individual data breaches from literally thousands of different sources.” New breach: The "Collection #1" credential stuffing list began broadly circulating last week and contains 772,904,991 unique email addresses with plain text passwords (now in Pwned Passwords). 82% of addresses were already in @haveibeenpwned. Read more:https://t.co/BAa3rbgZo4— Have I Been Pwned (@haveibeenpwned) January 16, 2019 The database going back as far as 2008 is a staggering 87GB in size, and comprises 1.1 billion unique combinations of email addresses and passwords – many of which have been “dehashed,” or cracked and converted back to plain text. This is when treating the password as case sensitive but the email address as not case sensitive. This also includes some junk because hackers being hackers, they don’t always neatly format their data dumps into an easily consumable fashion. (I found a combination of different delimiter types including colons, semicolons, spaces and indeed a combination of different file types such as delimited text files, files containing SQL statements and other compressed archives.)The unique email addresses totalled 772,904,991. This is the headline you’re seeing as this is the volume of data that has now been loaded into Have I Been Pwned (HIBP). It’s after as much clean-up as I could reasonably do and per the previous paragraph, the source data was presented in a variety of different formats and levels of “cleanliness”. This number makes it the single largest breach ever to be loaded into HIBP. –Troy Hunt The collection was dumped on anonymous storage site MEGA before it was posted on a popular hacking forum for anyone to access.

Amazon.com Should Give The SEC What It Wants - After Amazon touted in a press release last April that it had over 100 million Prime members worldwide and that over 5 billion items were shipped via the service in 2017, the SEC told Amazon that it had, in future, to disclose what percentage of net sales could be attributed to Prime members compared to that from non-Prime members. Amazon wrote back saying thanks, but no thanks, that data isn't "meaningful or useful information," so it was going to respectfully decline to comply.While the SEC let the matter go for the time being, Amazon may not be able to avoid providing investors with useful information much longer. Amazon.com has long refused to share with the public anything other than broad generalizations about its operations. While it provides revenue and profit details as required, and breaks out how much Amazon Web Services and third-party sellers contribute to the total, it typically falls back on airy, undefined numbers when it achieves a milestone. For example, the day after Christmas it released its list of accomplishments this year, touting that customers bought "millions of Amazon Devices" and it shipped "millions of unique items" through Prime to give it a "record-breaking holiday season." Beyond the puffery, though, we really don't know what Amazon achieved. How many people actually joined Prime at $119 per year? How many Echo smart speakers were sold? We're given nothing and it's left to market analysts and researchers to make a guess.

PG&E talking to banks on multibillion dollar bankruptcy financing – sources (Reuters) - PG&E is in discussions with investment banks about a multibillion-dollar financing package to help navigate bankruptcy proceedings, a sign that Chapter 11 filing preparations are intensifying in the wake of potentially staggering liabilities from deadly wildfires, sources said on Sunday. The California utility owner is in touch with large banks about so-called debtor-in-possession financing that could total between $3 billion and $5 billion, though the exact figure remains in flux and could end up being higher, said the sources, who are familiar with the matter. PG&E Corp declined to comment. The company may alert employees as soon as Monday about its preparations for a potential bankruptcy filing in compliance with a state law about providing notice at least 15 days before such an event, one of the people said. The plans have not been finalized and the communication could come later, the source said. Bloomberg first reported that the notice could come as soon as Monday. Companies negotiate debtor-in-possession loans, often with existing lenders, when they are seriously considering bankruptcy protection so they can continue operations while working through court proceedings. PG&E’s existing lenders include Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America Corp. A bankruptcy filing is not assured, the sources said. PG&E’s discussions with banks about financing are in the early stages and part of contingency planning if other efforts to address woes from last year’s wildfire fail, they said. A bankruptcy filing would represent a last resort if the company is unable to get government relief that would allow it to pass on liabilities to customers, a maneuver enacted into law to help the company grapple with 2017 fires, the sources added. 

PG&E stock craters as beleaguered utility faces bankruptcy - PG&E Corp. stock cratered Monday after the company said it will file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection amid the financial anguish stemming from its part in helping spark a wave of historic wildfires in California. Shares of the company plunged 52 percent to $8.38 per share Monday, one day after the company said Chief Executive Geisha Williams was stepping down. The stock has lost more than 80 percent of its value over the last three months. The market value of the company has declined more than $30 billion to about $4.7 billion from a peak over $36 billion in 2017, a loss equivalent to the size of eBay. Decline in PG&E's Market Value Source: FactSet The company provided official 15-day advance notice that it and its wholly owned subsidiary, Pacific Gas and Electric, intend to file petitions to reorganize under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code on or about Jan. 29. The company, California's largest investor-owned utility, has 16 million customers across a 70,000-square-mile service area in Northern and Central California. There was some speculation that PG&E was bluffing in order to force aid from California. CNBC's David Faber said that sources told him that is not the case. PG&E faces at least $30 billion in potential liability costs stemming from wildfires in 2017 and 2018, many allegedly started by the company's equipment, that have led state officials to doubt the safety of the company's electric distribution system. Investigators have already determined PG&E's equipment liable in at least 17 major wildfires in 2017. State investigators are still working to determine if the company's equipment was partly responsible for November's Camp Fire, which killed at least 86 people and destroyed

Who Could Get Hurt by PG&E’s Fire-Driven Bankruptcy? - PG&E Corp., owner of California’s largest electric utility, warned Monday that it plans to file for bankruptcy protection on Jan. 29, pushed to the brink by wildfire lawsuits that could cost the company $30 billion. It’s the latest fallout from two years of massive blazes that have killed more than 130 Californians and destroyed tens of thousands of properties. The move could trigger big changes for PG&E, its 20,000 employees and the roughly 16 million people it serves. It raises the question of whether people who blame PG&E for burning down their homes will receive the compensation they want. And could bankruptcy derail California’s fight against global warming?

• 1. Will the lights stay on? - Yes. When utilities file for bankruptcy, they don’t cease operations. PG&E’s utility unit -- Pacific Gas and Electric Co. -- filed for bankruptcy in 2001 during the California electricity crisis without interrupting service.
• 2. Will customer bills go up?   Probably, but it’s impossible to say until the bankruptcy process is well underway. And for once, the decision to raise rates won’t rest solely with regulators at the California Public Utilities Commission. Rate increases will be tied to whatever reorganization plan the bankruptcy court judge overseeing the proceeding approves.
• 3. What about the employees? They will continue to work, responding to outages and maintaining the company’s vast web of wires and natural gas pipelines. They will still get paid, and the company will continue to fund their health care, a senior executive with the company’s Pacific Gas and Electric utility said Monday.
• 4. What happens to all the wildfire victims suing PG&E? Filing for bankruptcy puts those lawsuits -- total estimated liability: $30 billion -- on hold and wraps them into the bankruptcy proceedings. That’s part of bankruptcy’s appeal to PG&E. The company would be able to bring all those cases into a single forum for resolving its financial problems, including wildfire suits. Bankruptcy filings also can force litigants to accept smaller settlements than they would have been able to negotiate otherwise.
• 5. How about the shareholders? Don’t expect to see your dividends again anytime soon. PG&E stopped issuing dividends after the 2017 fires, and a bankruptcy proceeding would likely put off the resumption of issuing dividends by several years. But analysts don’t expect shareholders to be wiped out.

California lawmakers in no hurry to help out PG&E - “It’s time to take a few steps back,” said state Sen. Jerry Hill, D-San Mateo, a longtime critic of the utility. “We need to look at the pluses and minuses of bankruptcy and also look at other options.” Lawmakers said the 15-day notice of an impending bankruptcy filing that PG&E gave to its employees Monday provides time for the Legislature to look at whether it should try to help the company and, if so, how. There was little evidence that lawmakers were eager to commit to bailing out the utility. “I don’t anticipate PG&E will be coming to us for relief,” said Assemblyman Phil Ting, D-San Francisco. “They need to come to us with a plan.” A PG&E filing for protection from creditors would allow time for the company to submit a plan to a bankruptcy court judge to deal with potentially billions of dollars of liabilities arising from wildfires that its electrical lines allegedly sparked. Although it has not been determined whether PG&E lines caused the Camp Fire that killed 86 people and destroyed the Butte County town of Paradise in November, the company already is facing potentially ruinous lawsuits over the blaze. The Legislature has already helped PG&E handle the fiscal strain of previous wildfires through a measure it passed last year, SB901, which created a process that regulators and the utility must follow before PG&E can pass along costs to customers. PG&E must first use a financial stress test to see how much of the burden it can pay on its own; then the utility can finance the rest through bonds its customers pay off over time. But the law allows PG&E to issue such bonds only for blazes that ignited in 2017. The Legislature would have to take new action if it wanted to protect the company from Camp Fire costs.

 PG&E’s Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing: Corporate executives again to get away with murder -- On Monday, San Francisco-based utility Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) announced that it would file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on January 29 amid mounting liabilities due its complicity in the wildfires that tore across California in 2017 and 2018, which killed dozens, displaced thousands of people, destroyed tens of thousands of homes and burned hundreds of thousands of acres of land.The company fears that it will face “significant liability” in excess of its insurance coverage if its power lines and other equipment are found to have caused the massive Camp Fire, which burned the mountain community of Paradise to the ground in November and killed 85 people. Chapter 11 bankruptcy will result in a freeze of the company’s debts and protection from creditors seizing its assets while the company works out a plan to compensate its creditors. It’s likely that, if the bankruptcy proceedings go through, the current company will emerge as a newly restructured holding company, shifting the burden of its debt and liability payments on to the working class—in the form of higher energy costs and corporate “restructuring” that will result in cuts to jobs, wages and benefits. PG&E announced on Sunday that its CEO Geisha Williams has resigned. She will leave with a $2.5 million cash severance. Williams became CEO in March 2017, meaning that many of the most destructive wildfires in California’s history occurred under her direction. Nick Stavropuolos, ex-president and chief operating officer, was eligible for $6.9 million in cash upon his retirement in September 2018. Stavropoulos oversaw the falsification of records related to PG&E’s gas pipeline system from 2012-2017. The discovery of the falsified records was a revelation, as it came two years after the 2010 San Bruno disaster, when a company gas line exploded, killing eight and destroying a neighborhood. Former CEO Peter Darbee, who presided over the San Bruno disaster, received a $34.8 million severance payout upon his departure, and Anthony Earley, Williams’ direct predecessor, was also involved in the record falsification scandal and received $10.4 million in severance when he retired in 2017.

 Sears' unsecured creditors object to Lampert's deal to save company - Sears' unsecured creditors filed an objection Thursday afternoon to Chairman Eddie Lampert's deal to save the company through his hedge fund, ESL Investments, requesting a public hearing to air its grievances. In documents filed with with Southern District of New York Bankruptcy Court, the committee said it has uncovered facts that demonstrate Sears' downfall was "precipitated by years of misconduct by Lampert, ESL, and others against Sears and its creditors," in addition to the broader challenges facing the retail industry. "This is a matter of significant public interest and should be heard entirely in open court," the committee wrote. A hearing is scheduled for Feb. 1 at the bankruptcy court in White Plains, New York, at which the bankruptcy judge overseeing the case, Judge Robert Drain, will assess the merits of any objections. Lampert reached a deal with Sears early Wednesday morning to acquire 425 Sears stores and other assets for about $5.2 billion. Sears' other brands include its Home Services business and Kenmore and DieHard brands. Lampert, Sears' biggest creditor, has been under fire from the company's unsecured creditors since it filed for bankruptcy in October. The group has said there may be claims against Lampert for deals the company did while he was Sears' CEO and largest shareholder. Those deals include Sears' spinoff of Lands' End in 2014 and transactions with Seritage Growth Properties, a real estate investment trust Lampert created through some Sears' properties a year later. "Sears's downfall is nothing short of tragic," the committee wrote in the documents. "After taking control of Sears in 2005, ESL — acting at all times at founder and namesake Lampert's direction — engaged in serial asset stripping, taking Sears's best assets out of the enterprise to shield them from the claims of other creditors and maximize ESL's investments (in Sears and other entities) in anticipation of these inevitable bankruptcy proceedings."

 Stock-Market Margin Debt Plummets Most Since Q4 2008 - Wolf Richter -During the ugly stock-market December, whose ugliness bottomed out on Christmas Eve, a nasty November, and the ugliest October anyone can remember, margin debt plunged by a combined $93.8 billion, the most since Q4 2008, after Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy.In December alone, margin debt plunged by $38.3 billion, to $554.3 billion,FINRA (Financial Industry Regulatory Authority) reported this morning. This was just a hair less than October’s plunge of $40.5 billion, and both had been the steepest drops since late 2008: The only form of stock market leverage that is reported monthly is “margin debt” – the amount individual and institutional investors borrow from their brokers against their portfolios. But no one knows the amount of total stock-market leverage from all forms of leverage, but we know it’s a lot higher than margin debt by itself.

Bad bets on oil, gas spark wave of energy-fund closures (Reuters) - Energy fund managers took heavy losses last year with wrong-way bets on the prices of oil and natural gas, leading to a wave of closures in the volatile fund sector. The number of active energy-focused funds fell to just 738 in 2018 through September from about 836 in 2016, according to the latest available data from hedge funds industry tracker Eurekahedge. That’s the lowest number of active funds since 2010. The number of funds solely focused on oil or gas has tumbled to 179 in 2018 from 194 in 2016. Funds that have suspended operations included high-profile names such as Jamison Capital’s macro fund, T. Boone Pickens’ BP Capital and Andy Hall’s main hedge fund at Astenbeck Capital Management, along with smaller niche funds such as Casement Capital. “There is a massive decline in the number of funds, and no replacements,” said David Mooney, founder of Casement Capital. “There has been a near ‘extinction event’ in commodities hedge funds.” “We had about 16 large hedge funds trading natural gas in Houston a few years ago,” he said. “That number is now reduced to a small number of managers.” Some funds saw investors pull out because they increasingly view energy as an unsafe spot for their money. Casement suspended operations after difficulties raising investor interest, two industry sources said. The firm was supported by Lighthouse Partners, according to a regulatory filing. Lighthouse declined to comment, and Mooney would not elaborate on the reasons for Casement’s decision to close. “All hedge funds, including commodities, that are being scrutinized for near-term performance are coming under pressure,” said Jonathan Goldberg, founder of one of the best-known energy-focused hedge funds, BBL Commodities. . “It becomes self-reinforcing,” Goldberg said in an interview. “If people lose money and are seeing negative feedback for it, they cut risk and it becomes harder and harder to manage the business.” 

Ray Dalio: Capitalism Isn’t Working - It’s always interesting to hear mega-capitalists complain about the very system that provides them opportunity to turn their talents into Scrooge McDuck size piles of cash. Furthermore, it’s usually the most successful that have the most liberal of views and Ray Dalio, head of hedge fund Bridgewater, has weighed in again. From CNBC: “Capitalism basically is not working for the majority of people. That’s just the reality,” Dalio said at the 2018 Summit conference in Los Angelesin November. Monday, Dalio tweeted a video of his Summit talk. “Today, the top one-tenth of 1 percent of the population’s net worth is equal to the bottom 90 percent combined. In other words, a big giant wealth gap. That was the same — last time that happened was the late ’30s,” Dalio said. (Indeed, research from Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman of the National Bureau of Economic Research of wealth inequality throughout the 20th century, covered by The Guardian, bears this out.)Further, Dalio points to a survey by the Federal Reserve showing that 40 percent of adults can’t come up with $400 in the case of an emergency. “It gives you an idea of what the polarity is,” Dalio said. “That’s a real world. That’s an issue.”  “We’re in a situation when the economy is at a peak, we still have this very big tension. That’s where we are today,” he said in November. “We’re in a situation where, if you have a downturn, and we will have a downturn, I believe that — I worry that that polarity will become greater.”  Here’s the full talk:

CFPB to scrap key underwriting portion of payday rule - Kate Berry - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is expected to eliminate underwriting requirements in a highly anticipated revamp of its payday lending rule, according to sources familiar with the bureau’s proposal. The CFPB in October signaled its interest in "revisiting" the ability-to-repay provisions in the 2017 small-dollar lending rule issued under former Director Richard Cordray. But sources familiar with the agency's thinking say the CFPB — now led by Trump appointee Kathy Kraninger — has concluded the best approach is to remove those provisions altogether. Under the current rule, which has not yet gone fully into effect, lenders must verify a borrower's income as well as debts and other spending, to assess one's ability to repay credit while meeting living expenses.Such a course would gut the centerpiece of a rule that consumer advocates had hailed as a preventive measure against spiraling debt for consumers who rely on short-term credit. The agency under then-acting CFPB Director Mulvaney signaled its intent to reopen the rule as far back as January 2018. Now the acting White House chief of staff, Mulvaney sided with two payday lending trade groups that sued the CFPB in April to invalidate the regulatory restrictions. In court documents, the CFPB argued that payday lenders would suffer "irreparable harm" from the 2017 final payday rule and that it was "in the public interest" to reopen the rulemaking. "Lenders throughout the market will face substantial decreases in revenue once the Rule’s compliance date takes effect, which will lead many to exit the market," agency said in a motion. But even though both Mulvaney and Kraninger have supported using statistical analysis to to weigh a regulation's cost, some attorneys and consumer advocates say it is is unclear how the CFPB will explain changes to the underwriting requirements since no new research on payday loans has been released in the last year.  The 2017 final payday rule stated that it was “an unfair and abusive practice” for a lender to make a short-term balloon-payment loan “without reasonably determining that consumers have the ability to repay the loans according to their terms.” The CFPB is expected within days or weeks to issue a proposal to reopen the rule for public comment. The overhauled regulation would replace the 1,690-page rulemaking — the result of five years of research — finalized in Cordray's last days at the agency.

Trump CFPB Plans Obscene Change to Payday Lender Rule -  William Black - Kate Berry, the American Banker reporter that covers consumer financial protection, has written another important article about the continuing horror story of Trump’s increasingly successful efforts to pervert the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) into an agency dedicated to harming consumers and protecting our Nation’s most predatory lenders.   The context is one of the CFPB’s most important and useful anti-predatory lending rules by payday lenders.  Payday lenders often charge working class Americans interest rates well above 100 percent.  (In Missouri, a hotbed of predation, they can charge more than 500 percent.)  The ‘sweet spot’ for payday lenders is borrowers who will be unable to repay promptly the initial loan (with an obscene, but vastly lower initial interest rate).  This sets off a cycle of additional borrowing and extending of payday loans that places the borrower into a debt spiral that frequently results in bankruptcy.  Payday lenders, who exist to predate on customers, make their extraordinary profits largely from borrowers who cannot repay the initial payday loan when it comes due, but have some income and will continue to reborrow and attempt to repay for months.  Predatory payday lenders optimize by finding this ‘sweet spot’ of those who have enough income and a compelling intent to repay – but not enough income to pay off the entire series of loans.   Kathy Kraninger, Trump’s new CFPB head (with no experience in consumer financial protection), intends to junk the CFPB rule provisions requiring that payday lenders underwrite their loans by documenting the borrower’s ability to repay the loan when due.  She also intends to act to optimize the predators’ ‘sweet spot.’  The latest proposal also is expected to rescind limits that the rule placed on repeat reborrowings by a single consumer; the CFPB’s data shows that payday lenders rely on reborrowings as a major source of revenue. The two points, capacity and reborrowing, are predatory kissing-cousins.  Predatory lenders’ targets reborrow because they lack the capacity to repay the initial loan when it comes due. This ‘sweet spot’ strategy is a signature of predatory lending because it optimizes the CEO’s ‘take’ from ‘control fraud’ and predation. 

Bill Black: Trump CFPB Plans Obscene Change to Payday Lender Rule - naked capitalism - Yves here. Black gives an excellent discussion of why the Trump Administration plans to gut payday lender restrictions are so destructive, as well as on the general importance of requiring that lenders be able to document that they had good reason to think the borrower would be able to repay the loan.However, I have one quibble with his piece, which is his discussion of pre-crisis adjustable rate mortgages with rate resets. We discussed those at nauseating length before and during the crisis, studying huge analyses by CoreLogic (and objecting to their rosy conclusions) and the works of the sainted Tanta, among many other important sources back in the day.The purpose of rate resetting ARMs was not to get borrowers in over their heads, at least not for a while. The entire premise of the rate resetting ARM was to get the borrower to refi before or shortly after the rate reset. I don’t know where Black got the idea that there were prepayment penalties on theses loans. Most subprime loans were securitized, so the originators/packagers were indifferent to performance. However, being able to sell new loans and collect all those fees again in a short period of time was an extremely attractive proposition. The tacit assumption was that housing prices would continue to rise, or at least not fall, and that even if the new mortgage terms would not be as good as the former “teaser” rate, they’d still be better than if the borrower sat pat and took the hit of seeing their mortgage go from 2% to 7% (a not uncommon jump).  In addition, the subprime lenders would often succeed in persuading borrowers to refi their loans with a higher loan balance, which they could do in as little as eighteen months back in the bubble years because home prices were rising rapidly in many markets. More than 50% of the subprime mortgages in 2005 to 2007 were “cash out refis,” meaning the borrower was paying off an old mortgage with a new one with an even bigger balance. That meant he was effectively pulling equity out of his house.  As we also discussed in those hoary old days, Countrywide, which before its sale to Bank of America had the best call center and servicing platform of any mortgage lender (not that they used those capabilities to good ends) would call their subprime borrowers who’d taken teaser rates six months into the mortgage and tell them that a reset was imminent to get them to refinance sooner.

Challenge of CFPB falls short as Supreme Court passes on case - The U.S. Supreme Court turned away a broad challenge to the structure of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the agency that Republicans say has stifled economic growth through over-regulation.The justices rejected an appeal, pressed by a community bank in Texas and two advocacy groups, that contended the agency has so much power and so little accountability it violates the constitutional separation of powers. The appeal was a long shot because it would have forced the court to hear the case shorthanded. Justice Brett Kavanaugh took part in the dispute when he was an appeals court judge, precluding his participation at the Supreme Court. Kavanaugh didn't take part in the high court's decision to reject the appeal.The Trump administration is among those attacking the CFPB's structure, though U.S. Solicitor General Noel Francisco urged the court not to get involved until it receives an appeal that all nine justices can hear. In court papers, Francisco said the 2010 law that set up the agency unconstitutionally restricted the president's power to fire its director.The CFPB, set up in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, regulates credit cards, auto loans and other consumer finance products. Supporters say its independence helps insulate it from political pressures, letting it focus on protecting consumers from financial scams and predatory loans. The rejected appeal also argued that the CFPB's funding system is unconstitutional. The agency gets its budget from a fund within the Federal Reserve and doesn't have to depend on congressional appropriations.

CFPB's Kraninger asks for 'clear authority' over military lending exams - The director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau on Thursday asked Congress to give it the "clear authority" to conduct supervisory exams of banks and financial firms for compliance with the Military Lending Act. The director, Kathy Kraninger, sent a letter to Vice President Mike Pence and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi with draft legislation that would give the bureau “nonexclusive authority to require reports and conduct examinations on a periodic basis.” “The requested authority would complement the work the Bureau currently does to enforce the MLA,” Kraninger said in the one-page letter. CFPB Director Kathy Kraninger Kraninger is asking Congress to approve legislation that would expressly permit the bureau to supervise firms under the Military Lending Act. Bloomberg News Last year, Mick Mulvaney, at the time the acting director of the CFPB, claimed that further legislation was needed for the CFPB to examine financial firms for MLA compliance. The Obama administration had conduced supervisory exams for years, and has long cited its authority not just under the Dodd-Frank Act, but also in regulating “unfair, deceptive or abusive acts or practices,” known as UDAAP. Mulvaney, now the White House chief of staff, had argued Dodd-Frank did not specifically identify the MLA among the 19 statutes under the CFPB's authority. Still, the Department of Defense and roughly 30 military and veterans groups opposed Mulvaney's rollback of supervisory exams, citing bipartisan support for limits on military lending.

AT&T Stops Selling Location Data of Americans to Bounty Hunters  — After Motherboard gave a bounty hunter a phone number and a few hundred bucks, their contact responded with a screenshot of Google Maps, containing a highlighted circle indicating the phone’s exact location.Motherboard then released a report on Tuesday, showing how T-Mobile, Sprint, and AT&T are selling their customers’ location data, and some of that data was ending up in the hands of bounty hunters and unauthorized people, letting them track virtually any phone in the US.In a swift response to the report, several senators requested the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to investigate, and demanded greater oversight and regulation of the telecommunications industry.On Thursday, AT&T released a statement indicating that it is halting the sale of all location data to so-called location aggregators, firms that sit in the supply chain between the telcos and clients. “In light of recent reports about the misuse of location services, we have decided to eliminate all location aggregation services – even those with clear consumer benefits,” AT&T said in a statement. “We are immediately eliminating the remaining services and will be done in March.”

There’s a simple reason why your new smart TV was so affordable - It's collecting and selling your data -- Massive TVs with razor-thin frames, brilliant image quality, and streaming services built-in are more affordable than ever thanks to companies like Vizio and TCL. If you want a 65-inch 4K smart TV with HDR capability, one can be purchased for below $500 — a surprisingly low price for such a massive piece of technology, nonetheless one that's likely to live in your home for years before you upgrade. But that low price comes with a caveat most people don't realize: Some manufacturers collect data about users, then sell that data to third-parties. That data can include what type of shows you watch, which ads you watch, your approximate location, and more. A recent interview on The Verge's podcast with Vizio CTO Bill Baxter did a great job illuminating exactly how this works. "This is a cutthroat industry. It's a 6% margin industry," Baxter said. "The greater strategy is I really don't need to make money off of the TV. I need to cover my cost." More specifically, companies like Vizio don't need to make money from every TV they sell. Smart TVs can be sold at or near cost to consumers — which is great for consumers — because Vizio is able to monetize those TVs through data collection, advertising, and selling direct-to-consumer entertainment (movies, etc.) — which is less great for consumers. It's those additional forms of revenue that helps make the large, beautiful smart TVs from companies like Vizio and TCL so affordable. Without that revenue stream, Baxter said, consumers would be paying more upfront cost. "We'd collect a little bit more margin at retail to offset it." The exchange is fascinating and worth listening to in full — check it out right here.

 Zillow's mortgage entry shows why fintechs must be regulated: NAFCU - Fintechs must be held to the same standards as regulated financial institutions, a letter from the National Association of Federally-Insured Credit Unions stated that used Zillow's acquisition of a mortgage lender as the example. "This emergence of fintech in the financial services marketplace presents new opportunities," the NAFCU letter addressed to Rep. Maxine Waters, D-Calif., the chairwoman of the House Financial Services Committee, and Rep. Patrick McHenry, R-N.C., its ranking member, stated. "However, it can also present new threats and challenges as entities emerge in an environment that can be unregulated or underregulated. As such, NAFCU believes that Congress and regulators must ensure that when fintechs compete with regulated financial institutions, they must do so on a level playing field where smart regulations and consumer protections apply to all actors in that space." The letter specifically referenced Zillow's acquisition of Mortgage Lenders of America, which was completed in November. Unregulated fintech companies can exploit supervisory gaps to obtain a competitive advantage, the letter said, although it added credit unions do not view those companies in adversarial terms. "We urge the committee to keep a watchful eye on developments such as this, where fintechs could end up competing under different regulations and fewer consumer protections than regulated depository institutions," according to the letter, which was signed by Brad Thaler, NAFCU's vice president of legislative affairs. While nonbank lenders are subject to rulemaking and enforcement by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, that is not the in the same way that banks or credit unions are supervised, Thaler added. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency created a fintech charter, but state banking regulators contend it does not have the authority to do so. There are also data security concerns with fintechs, the NAFCU letter declared.

Wells Just Reported The Worst Mortgage Number Since The Financial Crisis - When we reported Wells Fargo's Q3 earnings back in October, we drew readers' attention to one specific line of business, the one we have repeatedly dubbed the bank's "bread and butter", namely mortgage lending, and which as we then reported was "the biggest alarm" because "as a result of rising rates, Wells' residential mortgage applications and pipelines both tumbled, sliding just shy of the post-crisis lows recorded in late 2013."Well, unfortunately for Wells, despite the sharp drop in yields in Q4 which many had expected would boost mortgage lending or at least refi activity for the bank that was until recently America's largest mortgage lender, the decline in mortgage activity has continued,  because buried deep in its presentation accompanying otherwise unremarkable Q4 results (modest EPS best; sizable revenue miss), Wells just reported that its 'bread and butter' is once again missing, and in Q4 2018 the amount in the all-important Wells Fargo Mortgage Application pipeline shrank again, dropping to $18 billion, the lowest level since the financial crisis. Meanwhile, Wells' mortgage originations number, which usually trails the pipeline by 3-4 quarters, was just as bad, dropping a whopping $12BN sequentially from $46 billion to just $38 billion, and effectively tied for the lowest print since the financial crisis.  Putting this number in context, just six years ago, when the US housing market was actually solid, Wells was originating 4 times as many mortgages, or about $120 billion. And since this number lags the mortgage applications, we expect it to continue posting fresh post-crisis lows in the coming quarter especially if rates resume their rise. Going back to the headline numbers, here is a recap of the key metrics:

 Nonbank CMBS 2.0 loans' default rate is much higher than banks- Fitch -  Loans in commercial mortgage-backed securities originated after 2009 by nonbank lenders have a significantly higher default rate than those originated by banks, a Fitch Ratings report said.By units, nonbank loans have a 2.3% default rate versus 1.2% for banks.Banks originated over 80% more CMBS 2.0 loans than their nonbank counterparts. Yet nonbanks originated 124 loans with a balance of $1.26 billion that are now in default versus 119 loans with a balance of $2.19 billion for banks. The top three drivers of default for all CMBS 2.0 loans were occupancy decline, borrower/sponsor issues and loss of primary demand driver. These combined accounted for 69% of defaults by loan count.Nonbank originations also defaulted quicker than bank loans. For nonbanks, the peak default period was in year three following origination. The peak default period for bank originations was in year five.Early defaults are a concern for all CMBS loans, no matter who was the originator. Over one-third of the total CMBS 2.0 defaults occurred during the first two years, Fitch said. In 2018, 20 loans defaulted in the first two years of the term compared to 19 in 2017, 26 in 2016, eight in 2015, six in 2014 and five in 2013. Nearly 60% of these mortgages by unit were originated by nonbanks.CMBS loans originated in 2016 and 2017 had weaker credit metrics as a group. Bank and nonbank defaults from 2016 and nonbank defaults from 2017 had lower debt service coverage ratios and higher loan-to-value ratios than the conduit averages for those years.Nearly 35% of the nonbank defaults were secured by multifamily properties. This "may be attributable to the higher concentration of properties located in secondary and tertiary markets and concentration to several weaker sponsors. These multifamily loans were not originated by Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae, which may also have been a factor in their subsequent performance," Fitch said.The total CMBS delinquency rate ended December at 2.19%, a 103-basis-point decline from the same month in 2017, a separate Fitch press release said. There were $8.9 billion of CMBS loans delinquent as of Dec. 31, 2018, compared with $11.9 billion on the same day one year earlier.

 FHFA will no longer defend agency's constitutionality in court -  — The Federal Housing Finance Agency will no longer defend the constitutionality of its single-director leadership structure in court, according to a new case filing with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit in Texas.In July, the federal appeals court reversed the previous court’s decision and agreed with the shareholders that the FHFA was “unconstitutionally insulated from executive control” since its single director — as opposed to a board or commission — cannot be fired by a sitting president without cause. If upheld, the decision could render the agency’s actions void.Investors have argued that the FHFA violates the separation of powers because its single-director structure means shareholder interests may not be properly considered.The appeals court also validated a dividend agreement requiring the government-sponsored enterprises to deliver nearly all of their profit to the Treasury Department, which has long been challenged by the shareholders of the mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.The ruling on the FHFA’s constitutionality will face a larger panel of judges in an "en banc" review, with both sides presenting oral arguments Jan. 23 in New Orleans.However, acting FHFA Director Joseph Otting “reconsidered the issues presented in this case,” and will not defend the agency’s constitutionality in court, according to a supplemental brief filed by the counsel for the FHFA on Monday. “To the extent the Court concludes it is necessary to reach the constitutional issue, FHFA will not defend the constitutionality of [the Housing and Economic Recovery Act’s] for-cause removal provision and agrees with the analysis in Section II.A of Treasury’s Supplemental Brief that the provision infringes on the President’s control of executive authority,” the brief said.

The shutdown's impact on financial services - The government shutdown, which began on Dec. 22, has already caused a backlog of mortgage applications and was threatening to do even worse.  Some lenders had become wary of closing loans without IRS documentation known as Form 4506-T, which provides official income verification and tax return transcripts. The form was unavailable with the government closed. But after mortgage officials began lobbying the Treasury Department on the issue, the Trump administration opted to declare personnel who deal with the form as "essential," thus allowing them to return to work, according to a story that The Washington Post broke late last week.  Though the Post story couched it as the administration doing a favor for a powerful lobby, it may be as much about self-preservation as helping the industry itself. Without access to the form, the mortgage market was in danger of grinding to a standstill, a prospect that would worsen the economic damage from the shutdown. With most polls showing that Americans blame Trump, not Democrats, for the shutdown, the administration was highly motivated to find a way around the issue.  The Federal Housing Administration has continued to process government-backed loans during the shutdown, but since only a fraction of the mortgage insurance agency is at work, a paperwork backlog has built up and is expected to grow as the shutdown goes on.  The FHA has also stopped assisting financial institutions in underwriting loans. That move mostly doesn't hurt larger lenders that use the FHA's automated underwriting system, but it is potentially causing delays for smaller banks, credit unions and other lenders. House Financial Services Committee Chairwoman Maxine Waters, D-Calif., has warned that worse is yet to come, noting that 95% of Department of Housing and Urban Development employees are on furlough. She noted other areas beyond the FHA that could be affected, including those that rely on HUD's rental assistance programs.

Shutdown has farmers and their lenders sweating - The longest government shutdown in U.S. history is creating anxiety for farmers and their lenders. The shutdown is restricting cash flow to farmers by halting applications for grants and government-backed loans, along with certain subsidies. Concerns will only heighten as farmers get closer to this year's planting season, industry experts said. “We're talking about a couple weeks" before planting begins in the Southeast, said John Blanchfield, owner of Agricultural Banking Advisory Services in Damascus, Md. "In growing season, a couple weeks is a significant amount of time." The impasse comes at a time when farmers were already facing external challenges, including lower revenue tied to declining commodity prices and uncertainty surrounding tariffs. Projected net farm income in 2018 was forecast to fall by 12% from a year earlier, to $66.3 billion, according to the most recent data from the Agriculture Department. One silver lining so far is that the winter is a seasonally slower time for loan originations, “I think there will be more challenges if the shutdown were to extend into the spring,” Fenech said. “Never say never, but I have to think that it’s unlikely that this situation extends into the spring. But if it were to, that’s when I think you would start to see some issues.” Many bankers are preparing agricultural loans so they can submit them to the Farm Service Agency once the government reopens, said Mark Scanlan, senior vice president of agriculture and rural policy at the Independent Community Bankers of America. “Farm Service Agency staff will have a huge backlog," Scanlan said. "Then the question is what will they prioritize? It is going to cause a bottleneck and probably a logjam for these types of loans.” Some banks are trying to provide interim financing for farmers while the Agriculture Department's guaranteed-loan program is on pause. The longer the shutdown goes on, the more disruption it could cause,

‘Could you make these guys essential?’: Mortgage industry gets shutdown relief after appeal to senior Treasury officials WaPo - Is Xi Jinping’s Taiwan reunification push hastening a US-China clash- Beijing’s renewed push for reunification with Taiwan has exposed the fragility of the balance of power in the Taiwan Strait – a relationship increasingly in question with China and the United States locked in a superpower rivalry over trade and geopolitical friction. Government advisers and analysts warn that the deadlocked cross-strait relations are entering a dangerous period, with an expectation of escalating tensions in the months ahead as an increasingly isolated Taipei tilts further towards Washington, seeking a hedge against Beijing’s aggressive pressure campaign. The self-governed island’s fate – the most disruptive factor in Beijing’s complex relations with Washington – could touch off a chain reaction that exacerbates the strain on bilateral ties, already mired in a protracted trade war and escalating technology race, they say. In a speech that may have set the tone for Beijing’s Taiwan policy for years to come, President Xi Jinping last week said both sides should begin talks on reunification to end decades of animosity. Describing the Taiwan question as a historical trauma for the Chinese nation, Xi said the island must be reunited with Beijing under “one country, two systems”, a model applied in Hong Kong and Macau. Despite his conciliatory overture – coming amid a stalemate that began when Tsai Ing-wen of the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party was elected as Taiwan’s president in 2016 – Xi insisted that Beijing would not renounce the use of force, which he claimed was aimed at pro-independence forces in Taiwan and the “interference of external forces”, a veiled reference to Washington. However, his proposal for unification talks was met with robust criticism from Taiwan as Tsai accused Beijing of undermining the island’s vibrant democratic process and called on Xi to respect Taiwan’s existence. Tsai firmly rejected Xi’s proposal and, for the first time she took power, removed her deliberate ambiguity over the impasse over the “1992 consensus”, a tacit agreement between Beijing and Taiwan’s then Kuomintang administration that there is “one China”, but each side can interpret that as it likes.

Mortgage lenders may need to contend with higher default rates - Consecutive-month default rates for home loans are increasing, and they could remain higher the next few months, according to data from Standard &Poor's Dow Jones Indices and Experian. The first-mortgage default rate in December of last year rose by 3 basis points to 0.67% compared to November 2018, leaving it just 1 basis point below what it was in December 2017. First-mortgage defaults The second-mortgage default rate in December of last year rose by 6 basis points from the previous month to 0.6%, although it was down 62 basis points from a year ago. The uptick in month-to-month mortgage default rates is part of a larger trend across consumer credit sectors, according to S&P Dow Jones and Experian. Consecutive-month default rates for all loan types in December 2018 were higher in all major metropolitan statistical areas for the first time since January 2017. "Consumer credit default rates are giving a caution signal," David Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a press release. The current government shutdown is making it more likely that loans will underperform in the near term, and if 2018's seasonal patterns recur, the higher level of defaults could persist through March. However, to date, in most cases default rates and delinquencies have remained lower on a year-to-year basis. Mortgage delinquencies 30 days or more past due, for example, were a full percentage point lower year-over-year in CoreLogic's latest monthly loan performance report. The 30-day-plus delinquency rate in the most recent month tracked by that report, October 2018, was 4.1%.

Government Shutdown Threatens Section 8 and Food Stamps - As we enter day 21 of the government shutdown, the ripple effects are growing across the country, with 800,000 government workers going without pay. Affected agencies are operating with skeleton crews, and that spells trouble for people counting on tax refunds and government benefits that require people in the office — and funds — to administer.For two extremely successful government programs that help lift people out of poverty and address basic needs, this reckoning may be especially soon. And it may not come as a surprise that the Trump administration was unaware of these potential consequences of the shutdown — something the president appears determined to prolong to advance his political agenda, even at the expense of suffering Americans.One is the housing choice program, sometimes known as Section 8, which provides financial assistance that allows low-income renters access to a greater array of housing options. The program uses vouchers to make up the difference between what renters can afford and what’s available.While tenants who use vouchers often face discrimination, and the waitlists are sometimes long, millions of people across the U.S. count on vouchers to help them access housing.The funding for those vouchers is running dry, though — and by February, neither the federal government nor local agencies will be able to provide financial support to tenants.That could lead, some say, to “millions” of evictions from unsympathetic landlords. The Department of Housing and Urban Development has already warned landlords that there may be trouble in the future — but with the shutdown dragging on and no clear end in sight, landlords may not be interested in waiting. Ninety-five percent of HUD personnel are out on unpaid furlough, with the remaining 5 percent remaining on staff to handle emergency issues. With each day of the shutdown, HUD gets further behind not just on vouchers, but also on vital programs designed to improve housing safety, affordability and accessibility.

Foreclosure low shows market recovered from housing crisis: Attom - The distressed real estate market has bounced back from the housing bubble as most foreclosures are due to natural disasters, according to Attom Data Solutions. Overall foreclosure filings — properties with a default notice, scheduled for auction or repossessed by a bank — dropped to their lowest level in 13 years. A total of 624,753 properties filed in 2018, down 8% year-over-year. It also represents a 78% drop since peaking in 2010 at 2.9 million properties and a 2.23% rate. Foreclosure activity declined each subsequent year since 2010 as well. Foreclosure rate "Plummeting foreclosure completions combined with consistently falling foreclosure timelines in 2018 provide evidence that most of the distress from the last housing crisis has now been cleaned up," Todd Teta, chief product officer at Attom Data Solutions, said in a press release. "But there was also some evidence of distress gradually returning to the housing market in 2018, with foreclosure starts increasing from the previous year in more than one-third of all state and local housing markets." Foreclosure starts and bank repossessions hit record lows nationwide. Lenders started new foreclosures on 369,170 properties in 2018, down 6% from the year prior and 83% lower from 2009's high of over 2.1 million. Despite the national trend, 18 states saw annual upswings in foreclosure starts, led by Minnesota's 29% increase and 15% jumps in Texas and Michigan. Property repossession through foreclosure fell 21% year-over-year to 230,305 in 2018. Repossessions peaked at 1,050,500 in 2010.

 MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Activity Index Highest Since 2010 --From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Rebound in Latest MBA Weekly Survey: Mortgage applications increased 13.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 11, 2019. ... The Refinance Index increased 19 percent from the previous week to its highest level since March 2018. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 9 percent from one week earlier to its highest level since April 2010. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 43 percent compared with the previous week and was 11 percent higher than the same week one year ago. “Mortgage applications rose to their strongest level in years last week, with purchase applications rising to the highest since 2010, and refinance applications up to their highest level since last spring,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Uncertainty regarding the government shutdown, slowing global growth, Brexit, a more patient Fed, and a volatile stock market continued to keep rates from increasing. The spring homebuying season is almost upon us, and if rates stay lower, inventory continues to grow, and the job market maintains its strength, we do expect to see a solid spring market. The 11 percent gain in purchase volume compared to last year is a promising sign.”  The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($484,350 or less) remain unchanged at 4.74 percent, with points decreasing to 0.45 from 0.47 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

Purchase mortgage applications rise to nine-year high - Purchase mortgage application volume reached its highest level in almost nine years as homebuyers took advantage of what might be a fleeting window for lower interest rates. The Mortgage Bankers Association's Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending Jan. 11 increased 13.5% from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted purchase index increased 9% from one week earlier to its highest level since April 2010, while the unadjusted purchase index increased 43% compared with the previous week and was 11% higher than the same week one year ago. The refinance index increased 19% over the prior week. Meanwhile, the refinance share of mortgage activity increased to its highest level since January 2018, 46.8% of total applications, from 45.8% the previous week. "Uncertainty regarding the government shutdown, slowing global growth, Brexit, a more patient Fed, and a volatile stock market continued to keep rates from increasing," Mike Fratantoni, the MBA's senior vice president and chief economist, said in a press release. "The spring home buying season is almost upon us, and if rates stay lower, inventory continues to grow, and the job market maintains its strength, we do expect to see a solid spring market. The 11% gain in purchase volume compared to last year is a promising sign." Adjustable-rate loan activity increased to 9.2% from 8.4% of total applications, while the share of Federal Housing Administration-guaranteed loans increased to 10.9% from 10.3% the week prior. "Borrowers with larger loans tend to be more responsive to a given drop in mortgage rates, and we are seeing that so far in 2019. Furthermore, borrowers with jumbo loans are also more apt to take adjustable-rate mortgages as opposed to fixed-rate loans. Thus, it is not surprising to see the ARM share at its highest level since 2014," Fratantoni said.

US Home Prices Rise At Slowest Pace Since 2012 As Sales Plunge - In the latest indication of how weakness in the high end of the US housing market is beginning to seep into the lower rungs, growth in US home prices slowed in December as sales slumped, marking the smallest annual increase since 2012 - the end of the last housing crash, according to Bloomberg.The median US home price rose 1.2% to $289,800 in December, the slowest monthly pace since March 2012, when the housing market was just beginning to climb out of the hole left by the collapse. Meanwhile, sales dropped by 11%, the biggest drop for any one month since 2016, according to a report released by real estate company Redfin said. This follows a drop in the hottest markets, like San Jose, California, where prices dropped 7.3%.As BBG explains, the housing market is softening after years of rapidly rising prices as the shortage in homes is beginning to wane. With interest rates on the rise, mortgages are becoming more expensive, which is cutting in to demand.The property market, which was surging for years as buyers fought for a limited supply of homes, is softening as inventories start to increase and buyers take more time. The jump in mortgage rates last year added to housing’s underlying affordability problem, putting an end to the era of rampant bidding wars.Though, as one realtor put it, the cooling is expected after so many consecutive years of torrid growth (particularly since home-price appreciation has so dramatically outpaced wage growth)."It was like hitting the brakes when you’re going over the speed limit," Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather said of the slowdown. "You can’t have prices growing faster than wages year after year." But one question left open is whether the recent retreat in interest rates will swiftly translate into a rebound in purchases. If that happens, then buyers will know that interest rates are the biggest factor here. If not, that could be a signal that the worsening student debt crisis is finally taking its toll.  

Each quarter-point rise in rates eliminates 1M potential home buyers - Anticipated increases in 2019 mortgage rates also come with an expected 1 million households eliminated from affording the median-priced new home with every hike of 25 basis points, according to the National Association of Home Builders. With the latest mortgage rate slide, about 34 million households could afford the current median new-home sales price of $355,183. That number drops to nearly 32.7 million if the rates hit 4.85%, as the minimum income needed would be almost $98,000. "This study illustrates how even a relatively small increase in price or interest rates can dramatically impact housing affordability," NAHB Chairman Randy Noel said in a press release. "Housing affordability is a serious problem right now in communities across the country. Rising interest rates, regulatory barriers, higher building materials costs and labor shortages all add to the cost of a home, and are preventing households from achieving the goal of homeownership." Similarly to rates, for every $1,000 median home price rise, 127,560 households get priced out of affording them. The issue stems from income not keeping up with home prices as values recently rose above peak housing bubble levels. On the state level, Texas would feel the largest impact with a $1,000 increase in median home value with 11,152 households priced out. California's 9,897 households was next, followed by Ohio's 7,341. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Vermont's 158 households, Rhode Island's 182 and Alaska's 205 would be the least affected.

New York City public housing residents in the South Bronx without heat for a decade - Residents of South Bronx Area Site 402, a New York City Housing Authority (NYCHA) housing complex of four buildings, each housing approximately one hundred residents, have gone without heat for a decade. Site 402 is among the most egregious examples of the widespread loss of heat and hot water confronted by residents of public housing complexes during the winter months throughout the city. The physical state of NYCHA housing has deteriorated dramatically due to the starvation of funds from the federal, state, and local governments. Significantly, legal requirements that landlords provide heat and hot water in private residences do not extended to city owned housing. In addition to lost heat and hot water, NYCHA residents must also deal with lead paint, leaks, mold, broken elevators, rat and roach infestations and year-long waits for basic repairs. While the supposedly progressive Democratic mayor Bill de Blasio, now in his second term, pledged to fight rapidly growing inequality, homelessness has continued to rise with over 60,000 people sleeping in the New York City shelter system and thousands more remaining on the streets. Millions of working-class and middle-class residents have been pushed to the limit by rising rents, and stories of families doubling up in apartment buildings or being evicted from their lifelong homes are all too common. Despite the often untenable and unhealthy living conditions, over 200,000 New Yorkers are listed on the waitlist for admission to NYCHA housing.Tenets report waiting months or years for crucial repairs such as leaking pipes and water damage, the consequences of which include chronic health issues related to mold inhalation. In 2016, a report by Manhattan US Attorney’s civil division exposed that for nearly a decade the city had suspended lead paint inspection, falsifying compliance reports and failing to notify tenants of the toxic contamination in their homes, putting thousands of children at risk of poisoning. Last winter, NYCHA’s records revealed that 142,000 apartments—a figure representing roughly 80 percent of NYCHA residents—went without heat for average periods of 48 hours at some point between October 1 and January 22. In addition, over 159,740 apartments experienced hot water outages over the same period.

NAHB: Builder Confidence Increases in January - The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 58 in January, up from 56 in December. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor. From NAHB: Lower Interest Rates Stabilize Builder Confidence Buoyed by falling mortgage rates, builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes rose two points to 58 in January on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). “The gradual decline in mortgage rates in recent weeks helped to sustain builder sentiment,” said NAHB Chairman Randy Noel, a custom home builder from LaPlace, La. “Low unemployment, solid job growth and favorable demographics should support housing demand in the coming months.” Due to the partial government shutdown, there will be no new Census figures released tomorrow on housing starts and permits. NAHB estimates that the December Census data would show that single-family starts ended the year totaling 876,000 units, which would mark a 3 percent gain over the 2017 total of 848,900. However, the slowdown in sales during the fourth quarter of 2018 has left new home inventories elevated in some markets. ... All the HMI indices posted gains in January. The index measuring current sales conditions rose two points to 63, the component gauging expectations in the next six months increased three points to 64 and the metric charting buyer traffic edged up one point to 44. Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast dropped five points to 45; the Midwest and South both fell three points to 52 and 62, respectively; and the West registered a one-point drop to 67.

NAHB: Builder Confidence decreases for the 55+ Housing Market in Q3 -- This is a quarterly index that was released last year by the the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). This index is similar to the overall housing market index (HMI). The NAHB started this index in Q4 2008 (during the housing bust), so the readings were initially very low
From the NAHB: Builder Confidence in the 55+ Housing Market Drops in the Third Quarter Builder confidence in the single-family 55+ housing market dropped seven points to 60 in the third quarter, according to the National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB) 55+ Housing Market Index (HMI) ... Although the index declined, it is still in positive territory as a reading above 50 means that more builders view conditions as good than poor.“Although various headwinds are starting to have an impact on the 55+ housing market, there are many parts of the country where the market is still doing well,” said Chuck Ellison, chairman of NAHB's 55+ Housing Industry Council and Vice President-Land of Miller & Smith in McLean, Va. “In some places it is becoming a challenge for builders to provide housing at prices their customers can afford.” .. “The decline in the single-family 55+ HMI is consistent with the recent weakness in new and existing home sales,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “The high readings seen in the previous three quarters are not sustainable with high construction costs and rising interest rates.”

Fed: Q3 2018 Household Debt Service Ratio at Series Low -- The Fed's Household Debt Service ratio through Q3 2018 was released last week: Household Debt Service and Financial Obligations Ratios. I used to track this quarterly back in 2005 and 2006 to point out that households were taking on excessive financial obligations.  These ratios show the percent of disposable personal income (DPI) dedicated to debt service (DSR) and financial obligations (FOR) for households. Note: The Fed changed the release in Q3 2013.  The household Debt Service Ratio (DSR) is the ratio of total required household debt payments to total disposable income.  The DSR is divided into two parts. The Mortgage DSR is total quarterly required mortgage payments divided by total quarterly disposable personal income. The Consumer DSR is total quarterly scheduled consumer debt payments divided by total quarterly disposable personal income. The Mortgage DSR and the Consumer DSR sum to the DSR.  This data has limited value in terms of absolute numbers, but is useful in looking at trends. Here is adiscussion from the Fed: [...] The graph shows the Total Debt Service Ratio (DSR), and the DSR for mortgages (blue) and consumer debt (yellow). The overall Debt Service Ratio decreased in Q3, and is at a new series low. Note: The financial obligation ratio (FOR) also decreased in Q3. The DSR for mortgages (blue) is also at a series low. This ratio increased rapidly during the housing bubble, and continued to increase until 2007. With falling interest rates, and less mortgage debt (mostly due to foreclosures), the mortgage ratio has declined significantly. The consumer debt DSR (yellow) had been increasing, but has decreased recently. This data suggests aggregate household cash flow has improved significantly since the great recession.

Consumer Sentiment Declined in January, Lowest since 2006 --From the University of Michigan: Preliminary Results for January 2019 Consumer sentiment declined in early January to its lowest level since Trump was elected. The decline was primarily focused on prospects for the domestic economy, with the year-ahead outlook for the national economy judged the worst since mid 2014. The loss was due to a host of issues including the partial government shutdown, the impact of tariffs, instabilities in financial markets, the global slowdown, and the lack of clarity about monetary policies. CR Note: Sentiment is a coincident indicator.

The Next American Car Recession Has Already Started - These should be boom times for Detroit. Unemployment is at a half-century low, gasoline is cheap and auto sales in the U.S. were near record levels last year. Yet American automakers are closing factories, cutting shifts and laying off thousands of workers. The industry is behaving like a recession has arrived. In one segment of the market, it has. Detroit is in the grips of a car recession marked by the collapse of demand for traditional sedans, which accounted for half the market just six years ago. Buyers have made a mass exodus out of classic family cars and into sport utility vehicles. Familiar sedan models such as the Honda Accord and the Ford Fusion made up a record low 30 percent of U.S. sales in 2018, and things will only get worse. Sales of the passenger-car body style that’s dominated the industry since the Model T will sink to 21.5 percent of the U.S. market by 2025, according to researchers at LMC Automotive, relegating sedans to fringe products. That leaves automakers with excess factory capacity that can turn out about 3 million more vehicles than buyers want. And overcapacity is precisely what spurred losses the last time a recession wracked the industry. “You could classify this as a car recession,” said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at LMC Automotive.

Cars Have Just Been Crushed - The US Auto Market Is Officially In Recession Again - Despite surprisingly strong 2018 results and 2019 estimates out of General Motors last week, it’s becoming clearer that a recession in the U.S. auto industry is already underway. All one has to do is look around: factories are closing, shifts are being truncated and thousands of layoffs have taken place.Meanwhile, Detroit is showing increasingly more signs that it is in the midst of a recession as demand for sedans has collapsed. This collapse has been the result of most consumers moving to sport utility vehicles and pick-ups. In fact, the models that used to be the lifeblood of the car industry, sedans like the Honda Accord and Ford Fusion, only made up 30% of US sales in 2018.Sedans are estimated to sink to 21.5% of the US market by the year 2025, according to research from LMC Automotive. That will leave car manufactures with extra factory capacity that will be capable of producing some 3 million more vehicles than buyers want. This type of overcapacity has resulted in losses and has catalyzed past recessions for the industry.Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at LMC Automotive, simply told Bloomberg: "You could classify this as a car recession."

Cars Will Soon Be Monitoring Their Drivers And Selling The Data They Collect --In case you were wondering, the evolution of the "smart" product (read: a product that invades your privacy and sells the ensuing data) hasn’t skipped the automobile industry. And of course, this means your car will soon be collecting data on you.A new report by Reuters notes that at CES in Las Vegas this year, start up companies are going to be looking to demonstrate to automakers how their technology gathers data on drivers – all for enhanced safety purposes. Sure.Some of the coming technologies include vehicles that generate alerts about things like drowsiness and unfastened seatbelts. The software is being pitched as a way to cut back on distracted driving and increase safety. Oh, and of course, it'll eventually help automakers and ride hailing companies make money from the data that is generated inside the vehicle.Full self driving is still years away in the United States, but in-car sensor technology is going to be a crucial part of this burgeoning technological niche. Obviously, the more sophisticated the monitoring is inside the car, the more likely the vehicle is going to be able to get a driver to retake control, if necessary, and keep all parties safe. The technologies also include artificial intelligence software and in-car monitoring cameras.Interior facing cameras are currently only available on a couple of vehicles, including Teslas and select vehicles by Mazda and Subaru, among a few others. The data from cameras is run through image recognition software to try and determine whether or not a driver is paying attention, looking at their cell phone, or perhaps even getting sleepy.Companies like Israel’s Guardian Optical Technologies and eyeSight Technologies, Silicon Valley’s Eyeris Technologies Inc and Sweden’s Smart Eye AB are among those starting to become the main players in the space. Some of these companies have already signed production deals for beyond 2020.

Soaring Restaurant Prices Signal Inflation Is Much Higher Than 'Official' Data Suggest? - For equity market bulls, Friday's CPI data couldn't have been more of a gift if the report came wrapped up with a bow. Falling neatly in line with the market's expectations, headline core inflation downshifted to 1.9%, the weakest reading since August 2017. Even more importantly, relenting price pressures sent one of the most widely watched inflation gauges back below the Fed's 2% Maginot Line, handing the "data dependent" central bank more justification to put off hiking rates until H2. But as is often the case with US data - particularly measures of inflation which chronically under-represent the true level of inflation in the economy, as we have explained in the past -- the devil is in the details. And Friday's print was no exception. To wit: While headline inflation slipped, the subindex for full-service food and snacks - which represents the costs of dining at full-service restaurants - climbed 0.5%, its largest month-over-month increase since 2011. So why the reason for the divergence? Particularly considering that the cost of food - which, as we understand it, is the primary product sold at restaurants - remains below its levels from the beginning of 2018. While it's tempting to attribute this to accelerating wage growth or minimum wage hikes, the increase occurred in December; a wave of minimum wage hikes across the US aren't slated to take effect until next month. And while jobs data have recently reflected a pickup in average wages, restaurant workers mostly rely on tips to get by. Bloomberg hinted at the incongruity, describing the increase in full-service restaurant prices as a "another headwind for Americans." In fact, given the many warning signs about consumption in the second half of 2018, including trade-related headwinds and the blow to the "wealth effect" in stocks, it's almost as if something about this number doesn't quite add up... 

Rail Week Ending 05 January 2019: Very Strong Performance In First Week of the New Year: Week 1 of 2019 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) improved according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. The economically intuitive sectors rolling averages strongly improved. Surprise - rail is now saying the economy is improving. We review this data set to understand the economy. The intuitive sectors (total carloads removing coal, grain and petroleum) expanded 8.4 % year-over-year. We primarily use rolling averages to analyze the intuitive data due to weekly volatility - and the 4 week rolling year-over-year average for the intuitive sectors improved from +0.2% to +2.4 %. The following graph compares the four week moving averages for carload economically intuitive sectors (red line) vs. total movements (blue line):  Intermodal transport (containers or trailers on rail cars) growth has been relatively strong over the past year - and has been improving over the last several weeks. . The weekly data is fairly noisy, and the best way to view it is to look at the rolling averages (carloads [including coal and grain] and intermodal combined).A summary for this week from the AAR: For this week, total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 436,103 carloads and intermodal units, up 4.8 percent compared with the same week last year. Total carloads for the week ending January 5 were 221,759 carloads, up 6.2 percent compared with the same week in 2018, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 214,344 containers and trailers, up 3.4 percent compared to 2018. Eight of the 10 carload commodity groups posted an increase compared with the same week in 2018. They included nonmetallic minerals, up 3,791 carloads, to 25,665; metallic ores and metals, up 2,619 carloads, to 21,738; and petroleum and petroleum products, up 2,413 carloads, to 12,057. Commodity groups that posted decreases compared with the same week in 2018 were motor vehicles and parts, down 1,261 carloads, to 9,213; and miscellaneous carloads, down 294 carloads, to 7,251.

Industrial Production Increased 0.3% in December --From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production increased 0.3 percent in December after rising 0.4 percent in November. For the fourth quarter as a whole, total industrial production moved up at an annual rate of 3.8 percent. In December, manufacturing output increased 1.1 percent, its largest gain since February 2018. The output of mines rose 1.5 percent, but the index for utilities fell 6.3 percent, as warmer-than-usual temperatures lowered the demand for heating. At 109.9 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 4.0 percent higher in December than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector rose 0.1 percentage point in December to 78.7 percent, a rate that is 1.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2017) average.This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up 12.0 percentage points from the record low set in June 2009 (the series starts in 1967). Capacity utilization at 78.7% is 1.1% below the average from 1972 to 2017 and below the pre-recession level of 80.8% in December 2007. Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change. Industrial ProductionThe second graph shows industrial production since 1967. Industrial production increased in December to 109.9. This is 26% above the recession low, and 4% above the pre-recession peak. The increase in industrial production was above the consensus forecast. Capacity utilization was also above consensus.

Industrial production: strong finish to 2018 - Industrial production for December was reported this morning at +0.3%, slightly better than estimates. But what was really surprising is how strong the manufacturing component was, up over 1%:  With this reading, YoY industrial production for manufacturing improved to +3.4%, and overall production came in just below 4%:  This is in contrast to the sharp slowdown we saw in both the December regional Fed indexes and the ISM manufacturing index.  This was a good finish to 2018. Despite this, I am expecting a substantial slowdown within the next 6 months. If the government shutdown proves intractable, the odds of recession by mid-year increase strongly.

NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity grew slightly in New York State" ---From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Business activity grew slightly in New York State, according to firms responding to the January 2019 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell eight points to 3.9, its lowest level in well over a year. New orders increased at a slower pace than in recent months, while shipments continued to climb significantly.The index for number of employees fell ten points but remained positive at 7.4, indicating a modest increase in employment levels, while the average workweek index held steady at 6.8. Firms were less optimistic about the six-month outlook than in recent months. The index for future business conditions fell thirteen points to 17.8, and the indexes for future new orders and shipments also declined. This was well below the consensus forecast, and the weakest reading since May 2017.

Philly Fed Mfg "Continued to Grow" in January - From the Philly Fed: January 2019 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Manufacturing activity in the region continued to grow, according to results from the January Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s broad indicators remained positive, although their movements were mixed again this month: The general activity and new orders indicators increased from their readings last month, while the indicators for shipments and employment decreased. The firms reported growth in the underlying demand for their products and are generally optimistic about future growth and employment.  The index for current manufacturing activity in the region increased from a revised reading of 9.1 in December to 17.0 this month. Over 30 percent of the manufacturers reported increases in overall activity, while 13 percent reported decreases. The new orders index increased 8 points to 21.3, its highest reading in six months. … The firms continued to report overall higher employment, but the current employment index fell nearly 10 points to 9.6, its lowest reading in 16 months.  Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index: 

December Producer Price Index: Core Final Demand Down 0.1% MoM - Today's release of the December Producer Price Index (PPI) for Final Demand came in at -0.2% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, down from last month's 0.1%. It is at 2.5% year-over-year, unchanged last month, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Core Final Demand (less food and energy) came in at -0.1% MoM, down from 0.3% the previous month and is up 2.7% YoY NSA. Investing.com MoM consensus forecasts were for -0.2% headline and -0.1% core.Here is the summary of the news release on Final Demand: The Producer Price Index for final demand fell 0.2 percent in December, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.1 percent in November and 0.6 percent in October. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index moved up 2.5 percent in 2018, the same as in 2017.In December, 80 percent of the decrease in the final demand index is attributable to a 0.4-percent decline in prices for final demand goods. The index for final demand services edged down 0.1 percent. More… The BLS shifted its focus to its new "Final Demand" series in 2014, a shift we support.    Since our focus is on longer-term trends, we continue to track the legacy Producer Price Index for Finished Goods, which the BLS also includes in their monthly updates. As this (older) overlay illustrates, the Final Demand and Finished Goods indexes are highly correlated.

Deflation Strikes - US Import Prices Tumble In December As Petroleum Plunges - After a mixed picture from producer prices yesterday, import (and export) prices are expected to tumble MoM (as China's deflationary impulse ripples across the globe). US import prices tumbled 0.6% YoY in December - the weakest since Sept 2016 - and export price growth slowed to its weakest since July 2017. Although MoM shifts were modestly better than expected (Import -1.0% vs -1.3% exp, and Export -0.6% vs -0.7% exp), the slowdown from November (extending the slowing trend of the last six months) has accelerated.The biggest downbeat factor is the 11.6% plunge in Petroleum import prices (following a 16% drop in November) and export prices of industrial supplies tumbled 3.2% in December (after dropping 2.8% in November).Interestingly, despite the recent China data, import prices from China flatlined in December - admittedly hovering near their lowest since 2007.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 213,000 -- The DOL reported: In the week ending January 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 213,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 216,000. The 4-week moving average was 220,750, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 221,750.  The previous week was unrevised.  The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

BLS: Unemployment Rates Higher in 4 states in December; Lower in 3 States - From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary  Unemployment rates were higher in December in 4 states, lower in 3 states, and stable in 43 states and the District of Columbia, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Fourteen states had jobless rate decreases from a year earlier and 36 states and the District had little or no change.  Iowa had the lowest unemployment rate in December, 2.4 percent. Alaska had the highest jobless rate, 6.3 percent.  This graph shows the number of states (and D.C.) with unemployment rates at or above certain levels since January 1976.  At the worst of the great recession, there were 11 states with an unemployment rate at or above 11% (red). Currently only one state, Alaska, has an unemployment rate at or above 6% (dark blue).  Only two states and the D.C. have unemployment rates above 5%; Alaska, West Virginia.  A total of seven states are at the series low.

What Truck Drivers Say about “Driver Shortage” & Pay Increases - The trucking industry is reverberating with claims that there is a massive driver shortage, that they have trouble recruiting and retaining drivers, and that they have to pay more to recruit and retain them. So here’s what truck drivers are saying. If there is a driver shortage, and if trucking companies have trouble recruiting and retaining drivers, and if they’re fretting about having to pay more to recruit and retain drivers – which would squeeze their profits – then drivers in turn should see this increase in pay.Turns out, less than a quarter of the truck drivers in the survey experienced pay increases of over 5%. But 59% of the drivers said their pay has remained flat or has even decreased.The survey was conducted by driving-tests.org, a test preparation service for driver’s licenses. In total, 4,931 truck drivers with commercial driver’s licenses responded. Of them, 2,713 said they had a Class A license; 1,180 had a Class B license; 839 had a Class C license, and 199 had more than one.In total, 2,925 drivers responded to the question: “How much has your salary increased in the past year?” And this is what they said:

• 12.4%: “My salary has decreased”
• 46.5%: No change in pay
• 16.1%: Pay increased by 0.1% to 5.0%
• 9.2%: Pay increased 5.1% to 10.0%
• 5.2%: Pay increased 10.1% to 15%
• 3.0%: Pay increased 15.1% to 20.0%
• 7.6%: Pay increased more than 20%.

That about 59% of drivers experienced flat or declining pay last year is peculiar because the industry has been singing a different tune. Trucks.comreported in December: “The shortage of drivers and trucks was so great earlier this year that some carriers temporarily turned away orders.”

70,000 workers strike at US-Mexico border sweatshops --At least 70,000 workers from 45 factories—including tens of thousands of auto parts and assembly workers at companies that supply GM, Ford and Fiat-Chrysler—have launched a wildcat strike in the US-Mexico border town of Matamoros.The strike is a rebellion against both the “maquiladora” manufacturing corporations and the pro-company trade unions. Over 1 million workers endure low wages and sweatshop conditions at the 3,000 “maquiladora” factories that line the Mexican side of the border and account for 65 percent of Mexican exports.The strike is a powerful sign of the growing mood of insurgency among workers across the world. It takes place alongside a strike of 30,000 public school teachers in Los Angeles, growing “yellow vest” demonstrations against inequality in France, and widespread anger among US and European autoworkers over massive planned job cuts by GM and Ford. The workers decided to strike on Saturday at a mass general assembly meeting where the 2,000 in attendance repudiated the hated Union of Laborers and Industrial Workers of the Maquiladora Industry (SJOIIM) and agreed to elect representatives from their factories to direct their struggle free from the control of the union.

Thousands gather at mass meeting as maquiladora strike grows -- As new manufacturing plants join the growing strike in Matamoros, Mexico, over 70,000 workers are confronting threats of mass firings and plant closures by the employers and advancing their fight against social inequality. Amid a media blackout by Mexican and international outlets, the ruling class has demonstrated a profound fear that the rebellion by Matamoros sweatshop workers who produce auto parts and other goods supplying the main auto companies in North America, Europe and Asia will inspire workers to take up the same fight in the rest of the industrial belt along the US-Mexico border and spill over across the North American continent and beyond.Over the weekend, workers affiliated to the Union of Laborers and Industrial Workers of the Maquiladora Industry (SJOIIM) decided in mass assemblies and discussions on social media to walk out in defiance of the trade union and the Matamoros government controlled by the ruling National Regeneration Movement (Morena) of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO).The answer is ‘No.’ No one should work tomorrow. The fight for a better future has begun. The state and city governments and trade-union officials have taken over the bargaining for the companies, ordering the strike to end and defending the maneuvers by the companies to infringe the contracts and continue extracting massive profits from the super-exploitation of the Maquiladora workers, who make on average $9 a day.

Matamoros, Mexico strike of over 70,000 workers enters sixth day -- Over 70,000 “maquiladora” workers from 45 factories in the US-Mexico border town of Matamoros, Mexico have entered the sixth day of their courageous struggle as more and more plants are paralyzed throughout the city. Last night, thousands of workers marched through the city from factory to factory chanting “unity, unity,” “walk out! walk out!,” “the workers united will never be defeated” and “strike!” Workers stopped at each plant and appealed to workers changing shift to join their strike, greeting each new walkout with a loud round of cheers. The crowd grew throughout the night. There is a sense in the ruling class that the strike may be getting out of control. Amid a complete media blackout, the hated trade unions are doing everything in their power to restrict the movement to “legal” union-led negotiations and to keep stoppages from spreading to more manufacturing complexes across the border area and internationally. The strike at Matamoros has been completely ignored by the corporate media. There is not a single article about the Matamoros strike in any of the major Mexican or international news outlets. While devoting front-page news to anti-democratic maneuvers by the Democratic Party, the US-based New York Times and Washington Post, and Mexican newspapers such as El Universal and Reforma, have nothing to say about the largest strike on the North American continent in recent years.

Canadian and US autoworkers voice support for striking maquiladora workers in Mexico --  US and Canadian autoworkers are voicing support for striking “maquiladora” workers in Matamoros, Mexico who are in rebellion against the companies and their union over low wages and sweatshop conditions. The striking workers include many employed by US and global auto parts suppliers who rely on their labor to fuel their massive profits. An industry paper in Matamoros said the strike is costing sweatshop owners $23,000 a minute as it continues.News of the powerful walkout by Mexican workers is being blacked out by the North American media conglomerates. The action is producing fear in ruling circles over the possibility of workers in the US and across Mexico and North America following the lead of the Matamoros workers who are breaking out of the straitjacket imposed by the pro-corporate unions. On Thursday a WSWS Autoworker Newsletter reporting team visited the General Motors Detroit-Hamtramck plant, one of five factories in the US and Canada targeted for closure as part of management plans to axe some 15,000 hourly and salaried jobs. Reporters spoke to autoworkers about the Matamoros strikes as well as the February 9 demonstration at GM headquarters in Detroit called by the Steering Committee of the Coalition of Rank-and-File Committees against plant closings and layoffs. The demonstration has been called to promote a united fight by US, Canadian and Mexican workers in defense of jobs.

American Phone Companies Are Literally Letting Their Networks Fall Apart - Once as important as the American railroad and electrical grid, American phone companies aren’t quite what they used to be. With the use of copper-based landlines having plummeted the last few years, many of the nation’s phone companies have understandably attempted to shift their business models toward new, more profitable sectors like video advertising. The problem: many of their aging fixed-line networks were not only built on the backs of billions in taxpayer subsidies, they’re very much still in use—and for many, slow, expensive DSL is the only broadband available. But with no local competition and local and federal oversight eroded by lobbying—many of these companies have simply stopped caring. Case in point: Minnesota Attorney General Lori Swanson last week released a scathing133-page report highlighting how the state’s incumbent phone company, Frontier Communications, has increasingly refused to upgrade its aging network, often taking months to make repairs, putting those with medical conditions at risk. “The findings of this investigation detail an extraordinary situation, where customers have suffered with outages of months, or more, when the law requires telephone utilities to make all reasonable efforts to prevent interruptions of service,” the state AG said. “Frontier customers with these outages include those with family members with urgent medical needs, such as pacemakers monitored by their medical teams via the customer’s landline,” said the AG, which notes Frontier violated more than 35 state laws and rules by failing to respond to customer repair requests in a reasonable timeframe.

U.S. proposes to allow drone operation at night, over people (Reuters) - The Trump administration on Monday proposed rules that would allow drones to operate over populated areas and end a requirement for special permits for night use, long-awaited actions that are expected to help speed commercial use of small unmanned aerial vehicles in the United States. The proposals, drafted by the Federal Aviation Administration of the U.S. Transportation Department, come amid concerns about dangers that drones potentially pose to aircraft and populated areas. U.S. Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao said the department was aware of drone safety issues. “The department is keenly aware that there are legitimate public concerns about drones, concerning safety, security and privacy,” Chao said at a speech in Washington. Two London airports have been disrupted by drone sightings in recent weeks and the British government is considering toughening laws that ban the use of drones near airports. Alphabet Inc (GOOGL.O) and Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O) are among a growing number of companies hoping to make package delivery by drones a reality. The FAA said that in developing the proposals its challenge was to “balance the need to mitigate the risk small unmanned aircraft pose to other aircraft and to people and property on the ground without inhibiting innovation.” Chao noted there are nearly 1.3 million registered drones in this country and more than 116,000 registered drone operators. The FAA is proposing ending requirements that drone operators get waivers to operate at night. Through 2017, the FAA granted 1,233 waivers and “has not received any reports of (drone) accidents,” it said. The FAA would require that drones have “an anti-collision light illuminated and visible for at least three statute miles,” as well as testing and training. Under the FAA’s proposals, operators would be able to fly small unmanned aircraft weighing 0.55 pounds (0.25 kg) or less over populated areas without any additional restrictions.

Houston Airport First To Close Terminal Over Shutdown-Driven TSA Worker Shortage -  Due to a staffing shortage caused by the partial government shutdown, George Bush Intercontinental Airport in Houston was forced to shut down Terminal B at 3:30 p.m. for the remainder of the day. The airport made the announcement over Twitter, telling passengers they would be routed to either Terminal C or E.    The @TSA security checkpoint at Terminal B has been closed, and passengers will be routed to either Terminal C or E. if you have a flight, please allow extra time, and check https://t.co/a5cyZuGvqF for wait times. #fly2houston— Houston Bush Airport (@iah) January 13, 2019   Houston Bush International Airport closed Terminal B security checkpoint early today because of @TSA staffing issues pic.twitter.com/gfkDqC1u61— David Shepardson (@davidshepardson) January 13, 2019    Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner suggested that passengers arrive at the airport two hours before their flight, noting that a "shortage of TSA workers, unpaid during the US gov't shutdown, is causing the change."    There appears to be no end in sight to the shutdown which is now the longest in modern US history at 23-days-long. With Congress out of town for the weekend, President Trump tweeted: "I'm in the White House, waiting. The Democrats are everywhere but Washington as people await their pay. They are having fun and not even talking!"

Shutdown Chaos Spreads As TSA Worker Shortage Cripples Airport Security Checkpoints Across Country - Airline passengers across the country have been grappling with wait times of "over an hour" to get through security checkpoints, as TSA employees - unpaid due to the partial government shutdown, called in absent at more than twice last year's rate. The absences - thought to be due to a combination of the shutdown and a snowstorm on the East Coast, have forced airports to close security lanes in Atlanta, Washington and Houston.  Wait times to pass through security were “over an hour” at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International’s main checkpoint for domestic flights, the airport said on its website. Screening times were as much as 45 minutes at the two other domestic-flight checkpoints at the nation’s busiest hub. The airport is adding more “live music at all of our checkpoints to help ease tensions for passengers,” spokeswoman Elise Durham said in an email. -BloombergSo I’m at @ATLairport and this may be the longest security line I have ever seen. Even growing up here, and even for a Monday morning. One passenger told me he’d been waiting over an hour and still had about 30 minutes to go. pic.twitter.com/UL7EghujQI— Omar Jimenez (@OmarJimenezCNN) January 14, 2019 TSA spokesman Michael Bilello tweeted on Monday that the agency's unscheduled absence rate hit 7.6 percent, vs. 3.2 percent last year.

More TSA Workers Citing 'Financial Hardship' As Reason For Calling Out Of Work - As President Trump orders 46,000 federal employees back to work without pay (while signing a bill to compensate all federal employees going without pay after the shutdown ends), the word around the water cooler at the TSA is that, six days after federal employees missed their first paycheck since the shutdown began, more of the airport security agency's screeners and other employees are citing financial hardship as a reason for calling out of work as the shutdown enters its 27th day. Though it hasn't released data about absenteeism witnessed since the shutdown, in a news release Wednesday about checkpoint operations (released as airports around the country cut down on security lines or, like Houston Airport, close whole terminals, the agency said "many employees are reporting that they are not able to report to work due to financial limitations." TSA Administrator David Pekoske said that most employees who call out have been honest about their reasons, and the most common excuse he hears is financial hardship - like, for example, employees being unable to afford child care or transportation (i.e. no gas in the car). #breaking @TSA_Pekoske confirms to @cbsnews the increase in @tsa sick calls is from officers calling out for financial reasons. It’s not a sick out, officers aren’t pretending to be sick. They are saying they cannot afford to work for free any longer. #shutdown   There are no plans to punish workers who call out, the agency said. The TSA employs some 51,000 federal security workers who earn roughly $41,000 a year.

Facebook Is Now Censoring Talk About Politics And Religion At Work - It's not just social media users that are being censored, now its social media employees.According to a new report by Business Insider, citing an internal company memo, Facebook is now telling its employees what they can, and can't, talk about at work.Business Insider reviewed an internal company memo where Facebook's CTO claims to have put together "a set of ground rules for open and respectful communication at work, and a central moderation model."The memo states: "We're keeping it simple with three main guidelines: Don't insult, bully, or antagonize others. Don't try to change someone's politics or religion. Don't break our rules about harassing speech and expression."Facebook uses Workplace, an app that allows chat, for internal communication. Employees use it for work related projects, but also occasionally for small talk. The app is targeted as the main area where these new rules will apply.The memo continues: "These guidelines apply to all work communications including Workplace, email, chat, tasks, posters, whiteboards, chalkboards, and face-to-face. Since Workplace is where most of these discussions happen, we are investing engineering resources there." Facebook has also made it easier for employees to report one another when somebody says something that "offends" someone else. The memo continued:  "We are making it easier to report posts and comments, and those reports will go straight to a trained moderator who'll moderate as needed. We're also developing more tools to help proactively."

Do Not Disturb: The Right to Disconnect -  Jerri-lynn Scofield - Employees of public companies in New York City would be able to ignore after-hours emails and other electronic communication under a right to disconnect measure pending before  the City Council. This measure will be the subject of  a public hearing Thursday, the New York Post reported earlier this week in Behind the push to let employees unplug outside normal workday:  The Right to Disconnect bill would bar firms from requiring workers to check e-mail or other electronic communications outside the normal workday unless their contracts specify otherwise.   A Lexology post, The City That Never Sleeps—The “Right” To Unplug, summarizes most of the measure’s key provisions:

• As written (i.e., it may be amended), the law would only apply to employers with more than ten (10) employees;
• There could be no retaliation against any employee who doesn’t respond to texts, emails, messages, or otherwise after the end of the day;
• Lost wages and benefits of $500 would accrue against any employer that punished a worker for not answering a text or e-mail outside of work hours; and
• An employer who terminates an employee for ignoring after-hours communications would have to rehire that employee and fork over $2,500 plus lost wages and pay city fines of up to $1,000.

Does this mean that employees of private New York CIty companies will soon get a reprieve from incessant after-hours emails?  Not so fast, As the Post account makes clear, the measure faces formidable business opposition – and New York City Mayor Bill DeBlasio does not support it, either.

Au pair lawsuit reveals collusion and large-scale wage theft from migrant women through State Department’s J-1 visa program --EPI - Last week, the Associated Press (AP) reported on a proposed settlement agreement for $65.5 million between a dozen former au pairs from Colombia, Australia, Germany, South Africa, and Mexico who were brave enough to bring a lawsuit against the companies that recruited them to work the United States. Thanks to the former au pairs and the tireless efforts of the smart lawyers at Towards Justice, a nonprofit organization in Denver, nearly 100,000 young migrant workers (mostly women) will finally receive some portion of the wages they should have been paid while working in the United States providing low-cost child care to Americans. The migrant au pairs doing this work as in-home caretakers were employed in the United States through the U.S. State Department’s Au Pair program, one of 15 programs in State’s J-1 visa Exchange Visitor Program. Each year about 20,000 au pairs are hired by American families, assisted by J-1 “sponsors,” which can be either for-profit companies or nonprofit organizations that act as labor recruiters for families looking to hire foreign au pairs, and to which the State Department has mostly outsourced the management and oversight of the J-1 visa program. The sponsors make money by charging the au pairs to participate in the program, as well as by charging fees to families in order to connect them to au pairs. According to the AP, in the lawsuit the au pairs claimed that the:15 companies authorized to bring au pairs to the United States colluded to keep their wages low, ignoring overtime and state minimum wage laws and treating the federal minimum wage for au pairs as a maximum amount they can earn. In some cases, the lawsuit said, families pushed the limits of their duties, requiring au pairs to do things like feed backyard chickens, help families move and do gardening, and not allowing them to eat with the family. It gets worse. Not only was the federal minimum wage of $7.25 treated as the maximum the au pairs could be paid, the actual wage they received was far less:

Arizona: Four women convicted after leaving food and water in desert for migrants - A federal judge has found four women guilty of entering a national wildlife refuge without a permit as they sought to place food and water in the Arizona desert for migrants. US magistrate Judge Bernardo Velasco’s ruling on Friday marked the first conviction against humanitarian aid volunteers in a decade. The four found guilty of misdemeanours in the recent case were volunteers for No More Deaths, which said in a statement the group had been providing life-saving aid to migrants. The volunteers include Natalie Hoffman, Oona Holcomb, Madeline Huse and Zaachila Orozco-McCormick. Hoffman was found guilty of operating a vehicle inside Cabeza Prieta national wildlife refuge, entering the federally protected area without a permit, and leaving water jugs and cans of beans there in August 2017. The others were found guilty of entering without a permit and leaving behind personal property.

 Dead baby found in restroom at Amazon warehouse in Phoenix = Police are investigating the death of a baby girl who was found in the restroom of an Amazon warehouse in the US state of Arizona. Phoenix police spokesman Vincent Lewis said the newborn was reported to police at the online retail giant's facility on Wednesday evening. Homicide detectives are working to determine if any crime was committed at the facility, he said. Police have identified the mother, who is co-operating with the investigation. In a press conference on Thursday, Sgt Lewis refused to publicly name her or say whether she is employed at the distribution centre. "But, again, the restroom was located inside of a secured Amazon facility," said Sgt Lewis, who refused to speculate on what charges the mother may face. He said that investigators are looking into whether the child was born in the toilet, adding that the infant appeared to have only been there briefly. "It had been there some time," he said, adding, "very recent, same day". "It appeared to first responders that the baby was full term, or close to that," the spokesman said, adding that she could not be resuscitated by medics from the city's fire department.

Chicago Seized And Sold Nearly 50,000 Cars Over Tickets Since 2011, Sticking Owners With Debt - Sandra Botello moved to Chicago five years ago for what she called “the opportunities.” But her time in Chicago has been mired with a major hurdle. It started with citations for the city road tax collected through “city stickers.” After failing to keep up with ticket payments, the city seized her car and sold it to a private towing company, only to have none of the sale price applied to her debt.  Botello is not alone. According to a WBEZ analysis of thousands of towing records and invoices, the city regularly pulls residents into a nexus of ticket-related debt and car seizures that is stunning in its scope. In 2017 alone, Chicago booted more than 67,000 vehicles for unpaid tickets. In about a third of those cases, the driver couldn’t afford to remove the boot, and the vehicle was later towed to a city impound lot. Of those 20,000 impounded cars, more than 8,000 ended up like Botello’s: They were sold off, with the owners receiving none of the sale proceeds. Instead, the city and its towing contractor pocketed millions of dollars, while residents were left with ticket debt. All told, there have been nearly 50,000 of these sales since 2011. The vast majority of cars bound in these tow-and-sell operations hail from low-income and minority communities on Chicago’s West and South Sides, where experts have said residents are already hard-pressed to pay for effective transportation.

 A Chicago Cop Is Accused Of Framing 51 People For Murder. Now, The Fight For Justice. - The retired detective sits slightly hunched, his eyes darting between the attorneys who the city of Chicago sent to defend him on one side of the table and the lawyers suing him on the other. His voice, once bellowing, registers a few decibels lower as he states his name for the record. "Reynaldo Guevara. G-U-E-V-A-R-A." The opposing attorney wastes little time with pleasantries. "Mr. Guevara, isn't it true that you intentionally framed Jacques Rivera for a murder that he did not commit?" Guevara barely raises his eyes as he answers: "On the advice of my attorney, I assert my Fifth Amendment rights." Over the next eight hours and 32 minutes, lawyers for the civil rights firm Loevy & Loevy tick through the names of the dozens of people who have accused the detective of beating them into confessions, manipulating witnesses into selecting the innocent from lineups, or just plain lying in order to frame them for murders they didn't commit. As the deposition trudges through its sixth hour, the attorney asks questions about Roberto Almodovar, a 19-year-old who'd swapped his gang affiliation for fatherhood. He’d been logging 17-hour days cleaning toilets at a factory and taking GED courses when, in 1994, Guevara booked him on a double homicide. "Isn't it true that you framed Roberto Almodovar?” Guevara's face remains unchanged as he repeats his refrain. "On the advice of my attorney, I assert my Fifth Amendment rights."   It had been four years, Mary Almodovar began, since Guevara took the stand and helped send Roberto Almodovar — the nephew she and her sisters had helped raise — to prison for life, for a double murder that she along with a litany of other witnesses, neighbors, coworkers and stacks of documents could prove he did not commit. The agony she’d felt when the jury forewoman read aloud the verdict —guilty — hadn't subsided.

 School bans black boy from playground over ‘extreme’ haircut he got to hide his alopecia – A school banned a five-year-old black boy from playing on the playground because of his “extreme” haircut—which his mother said he had to help hide his alopecia.Birmingham Live reported that Josiah Sharpe, a young student at Summerhill Primary Academy Tipton, UK, was accused of distracting classmates with his fade hairstyle.  Kerry Rochester, the executive headteacher at Summerhill, said school rules bar students from having “hairstyles that will detract from learning.”Josiah’s mother Danica Sharpe told the I am Birmingham blog that the boy was barred from playtime until his hair grew back—and that the school’s rules are culturally insensitive and unsuitable for her son’s Afro-Caribbean hair.“I spoke to the teacher about it, I’m a hairdresser,” she said. “I offered to give a presentation so they can understand, it’s not being rebellious, extreme or fashion, it’s literally how black boys with Afro hair have wore their hair for centuries to look neat. The Head said the policy is not changing and so far has refused to meet with me.”

Lawmaker Accused of Sexual Misconduct Against Teens to Lead Tennessee Education Subcommittee -  Despite calls from protesters — and the previous House speaker — for his resignation, a state lawmaker accused of inappropriate sexual conduct against multiple teens has been named chairman of an education subcommittee. Rep. David Byrd, R-Waynesboro, has been assigned by newly-elected House Speaker Glen Casada, R-Franklin, to lead the education administration subcommittee. The announcement came Thursday when committees were assigned on the floor of the House, immediately following required sexual harassment training. "Matter of fact, his constituents sent him here overwhelmingly," Casada said when asked about the assignment after the day's session. "It is an accusation, but we cannot make actions on accusations." Both former House Speaker Beth Harwell, R-Nashville, and Lt. Gov. Randy McNally, R-Oak Ridge, called for Byrd's resignation last spring after a WSMV report detailed three women's sexual assault allegations against Byrd dating back to when he was head coach of the Wayne County High School women’s basketball team.

Los Angeles teachers strike in second largest school district in US -More than 33,000 teachers in Los Angeles, California went on strike Monday morning, setting up picket lines at more than 1,200 public schools in the second largest school district in the US. Teachers are demanding higher wages, smaller class sizes and more support staff.The walkout is the largest struggle by educators since the wave of statewide strikes in West Virginia, Oklahoma, and Arizona from March to May in 2018. Unlike those previous strikes, where teachers were largely confronting Republican-controlled state governments, Los Angeles teachers are in a direct battle with the Democratic Party, which controls every lever of government in Los Angeles and California.The superintendent of the Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD), Austin Beutner, a former investment banker, is backed by powerful corporate interests, including the Eli Broad Foundation, pushing for the privatization of public education across the country. Beutner is demanding teachers accept a de facto freeze in real wages, increased health care costs and higher class sizes.Arne Duncan, the former secretary of education who spearheaded President Obama’s corporate-backed “school reform” agenda, weighed in to denounce the Los Angeles teachers. LAUSD, he said, “is spending half a billion dollars more each year than it brings in and is headed toward insolvency in about two years if nothing changes… It simply does not have the money to fund UTLA's demands.”In fact, the United Teachers Los Angeles (UTLA) has abandoned many of the teachers’ most critical demands—including an end to unlimited testing and the expansion of for-profit charter schools, which drain some $600 million annually from public schools.

Los Angeles Teachers Strike For Smaller Classes, More Nurses And Librarians - Los Angeles public school teachers went on strike Monday morning, a result of failed negotiations between the teachers union and the school district. The strike has looked inevitable since Friday, when United Teachers Los Angeles rejected another offer from district leaders. "We are more convinced than ever that the district won't move without a strike," declared union President Alex Caputo-Pearl at a Sunday press conference. UTLA has more than 30,000 members, including teachers, librarians, school nurses and counselors.  The last time the city saw a teacher strike was nearly 30 years ago. The district says schools will remain open for the same hours during the strike, with the same before- and after-school programs. It has also said that student learning will still take place in schools staffed by administrators, volunteers and 400 newly hired substitute teachers. Negotiations with the LA Unified School District started in early 2017, and union members have been working without a contract for more than a year. LAUSD is the second largest school district in the nation, and the strike will affect about 480,000 students.

Huge teachers’ strike in Los Angeles brings district of 640,000 to a halt - Thousands of teachers decked in red and black braved torrential rain in downtown Los Angeles on Monday, carrying giant umbrellas and signs about class sizes as they demanded more resources for their students – and a halt to what they see as the encroaching privatization of their profession. It was the first day of a strike that has largely halted education in the United States’ second-largest school district. “We’re here because we want to stand up for our students,” Maria Ortiz, a teacher at Evergreen elementary school, said amid a downpour, ducking for cover at a bus stop. “It’s not about pay. We want smaller class sizes. A fully funded nurse. Psychologists,” she said. While money goes toward an increasing number of charter schools, many public school teachers feel it is at their expense. “We seem to be fighting for things that are basic in education,” Ortiz said, “and that is a sad situation, all around.” The Los Angeles unified school district serves more than 640,000 students – more than twice the number enrolled in West Virginia, where teachers went on strike a year ago over wages they said were not enough to cover the rising cost of living. In LA the district has already offered a 6% increase in salary. But that proposed raise, teachers say, is not the only goal that made them call the first strike since 1989.  “We’re here because we’re trying to get what’s best for our kids.” United Teachers Los Angeles, the union representing the district’s 30,000 teachers, describes the school district’s last offer as “insulting”. Salary increases are tied to healthcare cuts, it notes, and class sizes could be capped as high as 39 at elementary schools and 46 thereafter – if not higher in practice. Teachers, who overwhelmingly voted to strike last August, want the school district to spend some of its $1.8bn surplus to reduce those class sizes, to subject students and teachers to fewer standardized tests, and to check the growth of charter schools.

50,000 march on first day of Los Angeles teachers strike -  In a massive display of social opposition, more than 50,000 teachers, school personnel, parents and students marched in downtown Los Angeles Monday on the first day of the strike by educators in the nation’s second largest school district. The walkout by more than 33,000 educators, the first in the city since 1989, is part of the growing wave of working class struggles in the US and internationally against austerity and social inequality. Monday morning began with teachers and their supporters picketing over 900 public schools across the Los Angeles Unified Schools District (LAUSD), a vast area that spans an estimated 920 square miles. Despite the pouring rain, striking teachers were joined on the picket lines by an estimated 10,000 parents, students and other community supporters. After picketing in the morning, teachers and their supporters got on Metro trains and rode them to Grand Park station in downtown Los Angeles. Tens of thousands poured out of the station and gathered in the park and on the steps of city hall. They then marched in a mile-long throng to the LAUSD headquarters on Beaudry Avenue. In comments to the press Monday, LAUSD Superintendent Austin Beutner made the absurd claim that only 3,500 teachers had marched downtown and that substitutes brought in as strikebreakers had carried out a “normal school day.” Photographs taken by the Los Angeles Times, however, showed near empty school auditoriums where the handful of students sat throughout the school day.

Oakland, California teachers plan a one-day walkout Friday - As more than 30,000 educators in Los Angeles continue their strike, Oakland, California teachers in nine middle and high schools have voted at school site meetings to hold a second one-day wildcat “sickout” strike. The walkout, organized independently of the union, is scheduled for Friday. As of this writing, the schools that have voted to strike—Oakland Technical High School, United for Success Academy, Oakland High, Skyline High, Life Academy, Rudsdale, West Oakland Middle School, Fremont High and MetWest—account for roughly 20 percent of all students in the district, while other schools are expected to join as well.The Oakland Education Association (OEA) has kept educators at work despite being without a contract for over 18 months and has refused to link up Oakland teachers with their counterparts in LA and the rest of the state.Conditions in Oakland are driving teachers into struggle, just are they are in Los Angeles and around the US. Decades of budget cuts have produced dilapidated, understaffed schools where student learning has been drastically eroded. Oakland teachers have the lowest median salaries of any major district in the state, with high turnover rates and large proportions of uncertified teachers, in particular in Special Education which services the highest-needs students.

As support grows to extend Los Angeles teacher strike, unions colluding with Democrats to end walkout -Tens of thousands of Los Angeles teachers and their supporters manned picket lines and marched downtown yesterday on the second day of the strike by 33,000 educators in America’s second largest school district. The walkout has generated widespread public support and growing calls for the spreading of the strike throughout California and more broadly.For the second day in a row, as many as 50,000 strikers, parents and students converged on the city center, this time in front of the headquarters of the California Charter Schools Association. They were joined by 75 teachers who walked out at three charter schools operated by Accelerated Schools. Another 900 unionized charter school teachers have been kept on the job by the United Teachers Los Angeles (UTLA).There are growing calls by teachers throughout California and beyond for joint strike action. Teachers in Oakland are planning sickouts Friday to oppose threats by school officials to close one-third of the district’s schools, even as they expand privately run charter schools. Teachers in Denver, Colorado will be voting for strike action on January 19, and thousands of educators in Virginia are planning a mass rally in Richmond on January 28.Like they did during the teachers’ rebellions last year in West Virginia, Oklahoma, Arizona and other states, the leaders of the American Federation of Teachers (AFT) and the National Education Association (NEA) are attempting to isolate teachers in Los Angeles and prevent the broadening of the strike across the state and the country. On the eve of the strike, AFT President Randi Weingarten, who is currently in Los Angeles, tweeted, “This is not about a strike wave—this is a specific fight for the kids & public schools of LA.”  But Los Angeles teachers are not fighting a local fight. They are confronting powerful financial and political forces, including the Eli Broad Foundation, that are conducting a nation-wide conspiracy, with the backing of both corporate-controlled parties, to dismantle and privatize public education.

Why the L.A. Teacher Strike Is Different From Last Year's Protests - For the first time in nearly three decades, public school teachers in Los Angeles are set to go on strike Monday, continuing the nationwide trend ofteacher uprisings that began in West Virginia last spring. Similar to those protesting in places like Arizona and Oklahoma, the 35,000-member United Teachers Los Angeles (UTLA) union is demanding a 6.5 percent pay increase and more classroom funding. But the strike in L.A. -- the nation's second-largest school district -- is different in two significant respects. First, teachers aren't just asking for higher pay and funding. They are outlining changes they want to see in education policy. “We are demanding lower class sizes for our students, less testing and more teaching, charter school accountability, a full-time nurse and librarian in every school along with more counselors, psychologists, and social workers, and we want [Los Angeles Unified School District] to support the Community Schools Model, which has been proven to work all over the USA,” wrote more than a dozen of the city’s teachers in an open letter published in The Washington Post on Wednesday. Second, the battle is being fought in a liberal, union-friendly city and state. Most of last year's strikes and walkouts took place in red states with weak labor protection laws. Considering both of those factors, the strike could influence how an increasingly progressive Democratic Party handles workforce and education issues in states and cities across the country.Furthermore, some labor experts believe that -- unlike last year's strikes -- this one could have repercussions for how federal Democrats govern if they regain power following the 2020 elections.

Los Angeles teachers battle privatization as union vies to be partner in LAUSD restructuring  The strike by 33,000 Los Angeles teachers has brought to center stage the fight against the dismantling of public education by powerful corporate interests that enjoy the full backing of both big business parties. LA teachers are fighting not only to improve their wages, which have been frozen for a decade, but to beat back the drive to privatize public education, which has gone further in California than in most other US states.While the United Teachers Los Angeles (UTLA) has made rhetorical criticisms of the “billionaire privatizers,” the fact is the UTLA, like other unions across the country affiliated with the American Federation of Teachers (AFT) and the National Education Association (NEA), long ago dropped any opposition to corporate-backed “school reform” and the expansion of for-profit charter schools, which siphon off funding and students from traditional public schools.On the contrary, the chief concerns of the AFT, NEA and their state and local affiliates has been to preserve and expand the financial and institutional interests of the union apparatus during this process of school privatization. This includes expanding the franchise of the unions into the charter school industry in order to gain access to a new source of dues income as the unions collude in shutting down public schools and laying off teachers.On Thursday, the UTLA resumed talks with officials from Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD) under the mediation of Mayor Eric Garcetti. UTLA President Alex Caputo-Pearl has presented the intervention of Garcetti and other Democrats, such as Governor Gavin Newsom and state school superintendent Tony Thurmond, as a gain for teachers that is bringing them closer to winning their demands.While Garcetti has tried to distance himself from his Democratic predecessor, Antonio Villaraigosa, whose failed bid for governor was backed by the California C harter Schools Association, Garcetti has also received contributions from billionaires Eli Broad and Michael Bloomberg.

Denver, Colorado teachers move closer to strike action --As 33,000 Los Angeles teachers began walking picket lines on Monday, simmering anger over continuing underfunded education, poor pay, diminishing pensions and chronic teacher shortages is already beginning to come to a boil in other school districts around the US. Teachers in Denver, Colorado will decide by the end of this week if they will strike against the Denver Public Schools (DPS). Teachers have been attending open negotiating sessions, holding strike preparation meetings and speaking to parents over the last week.“I feel the quality of schools in Colorado is very poor and is directly related to the lack of funding,” said one resident to the World Socialist Web Site. “The infrastructure is decaying, we can’t keep teachers and it’s all in a downward spiral. It’s ripe for a fight and I feel the struggle in Los Angeles will have an impact here and all around the country.”If negotiations with DPS fail to produce an agreement by January 18, the Denver Classroom Teachers Association (DCTA), an affiliated union of the National Education Association (NEA), will hold a long-delayed strike vote on January 19, after working under an extended contract since last March. The union notified the Colorado Department of Labor on January 8 of its intent to strike under the state’s mandatory 20-day strike notice law, setting January 28 as the earliest a walkout could begin. It would be the first strike of Denver teachers since 1994. District superintendent Susana Cordova declared, “we are committed to keeping our schools open if union members decide to strike.” She has threatened that if no agreement is reached and a strike vote is called, she will “immediately ask the state to intervene.” At the height of the “Teacher Spring” last April, a bill was introduced into the Colorado legislature to outlaw teacher strikes, but failed to pass. The state could decline to intervene, as it did during a week-long strike in the Pueblo school district last May.

Oakland teachers hold second wildcat “sickout,” call for statewide strike with Los Angeles teachers In a demonstration of independent initiative and defiance of the state-sponsored contract negotiations process, hundreds of Oakland teachers conducted a one-day wildcat “sickout,” Friday. The majority of teachers at nine schools called in sick and picketed outside Oakland Technical High School, where students and community members joined them in solidarity. The crowd of over 500 people marched two miles down Broadway Avenue and rallied outside Oakland Unified School District (OUSD) headquarters downtown, demanding full funding for education, a raise in teachers’ pay and the halting of all school closures. The sickout is part of the growing international upsurge of the working class in 2019. It takes place as over 30,000 teachers are striking in Los Angeles, over 70,000 Mexican “maquiladora” workers are engaged in a wildcat strike in open defiance of their union, a general strike of 700,000 public sector workers is shaking Tunisia, and as the “Yellow Vest” protesters in France prepare for their tenth week of confrontations with the French police and state apparatus. These struggles are a continuation and deepening of the militant struggles that took place in 2018, including the statewide wildcat strikes by teachers in West Virginia, Arizona, Oklahoma and other states in the US.

Mass demonstration as Los Angeles strike reaches fifth day - Tens of thousands of striking Los Angeles teachers and their supporters descended on Grand Park in downtown Los Angeles Friday as the walkout by more than 33,000 educators in the second-largest school district in America reached its fifth day. The teachers, who have won the support of the overwhelming majority of city residents, are fighting low pay, overcrowded classrooms, lack of sufficient nurses, school psychologists and librarians and the growth of charter schools. As an estimated 60,000 rallied in the second-largest school district in the US, opposition by teachers spread across California and the nation. Also, on Friday, more than 500 teachers at 10 schools in Oakland, California carried out a wildcat “sickout” followed by a march and rally to fight plans to close one-third of the city’s schools. Like LA teachers, the unions, working with the Democratic Party, have kept teachers on the job for more than 18 months without a new contract. In a provocative action, Oakland Unified School District superintendent Kyla Johnson-Trammell threatened teachers that for each 1 percent raise they achieve, more than $2 million will be cut in benefits or school services. Virginia teachers, inspired by the strike in Los Angeles, will rally on January 28 in front of the state legislature in the capital of Richmond. Teachers are outraged that they make $9,000 a year less than the national average, even as the state legislature recently approved more than $573 million in tax breaks for Amazon.

 Explainer- Striking L.A. teachers take aim at charter schools (Reuters) - The growing number of charter schools in the Los Angeles County school system - and the school board’s support for them - is one of the most contentious issues in this week’s teachers’ strike in America’s second-largest school system. United Teachers Los Angeles (UTLA) President Alex Caputo-Pearl last week accused district leaders of wanting “to starve our schools in order to justify cuts and justify handing more schools over to privately run charter schools.” School Superintendent Austin Beutner says that claim is baseless, but his supporters have strongly promoted charter schools, which are publicly funded but privately operated. A 2017 school board election that pitted teacher unions against charter school backers resulted in a pro-charter majority on the board. About one in five Los Angeles students now attend charter schools, and their enrollment has continued to grow in the past decade while overall enrollment in the district has declined. The city now has more charter schools and more charter school students than any other school system in the country, the Los Angeles Times reported. Most charter school employees are not unionized. At a rally on Tuesday, teachers from three charter schools joined the UTLA strike, the first time that has happened. The teachers at those three schools run by Accelerated Schools, are represented by the UTLA. “What they’re demanding is basically fairness with other teachers in California, like having a voice and not being afraid of being fired the moment they use that voice on behalf of student needs or their own professional judgment,” American Federation of Teachers President Randi Weingarten told Reuters. “They have an astronomical turnover rate.” 

How Teacher Strikes Are Exposing the Corrupt Charter School Agenda -  In the latest teacher strike in Los Angeles, the nation’s second-largest school system, some 30,000 teachers walked off the job saying unchecked growth of charter schools and charters’ lack of transparency and accountability have become an unsustainable drain on the public system’s financials. The teachers have included in their demands a cap on charter school growth, along with other demands, such as increased teacher pay, reduced class sizes, less testing, and more counselors, nurses, librarians, and psychologists.The LA teachers’ opposition to charter schools is just the latest voice in a growing chorus of public school teachers calling on politicians to do more to support the public schools we have rather than piling more dollars and accolades onto a competitive charter school industry. And with the backing of nearly 80 percent of Los Angeles County residents, according to one survey, the teachers likely have the clout to change the politics of “school choice” in California, and perhaps the nation. Many of the grievances the LA teachers have are familiar to anyone who followed last year’s startling #RedForEd movement, which resulted in mass teacher walkouts primarily in red states, including West Virginia, Kentucky, Oklahoma, and Arizona. In each of those uprisings, teachers protested inadequate pay and benefits, lack of funding for their schools, misplaced emphasis on testing and standards, and a general disregard for teachers’ voices. Teacher opposition to charter schools, vouchers, and other forms of choice had a presence in these walkouts, but LA teachers are making grievances against charter schools central to their protests. Union president Alex Caputo-Pearl has declared the district’s pro-charter school policies are “a major theme” of the strike, and on the second day of the strike, teachers descended on the downtown offices of the California Charter Schools Association and surrounded the building. “We need to throw privatization schemes … into the trash can,” Caputo-Pearl is quotedas saying in a pro-charter media outlet.

 What Utah kids learn about science, including climate change and evolution, is up for debate with draft of new school standards -Utah parents and teachers can comment on what students should learn about science — including topics like evolution and global warming that are divisive in this red state — after Thursday’s release of a draft of new instructional standards.The Utah Board of Education voted to unveil the classroom guidelines for a 90-day public review after months of debate among members who disagreed over whether the new standards — based largely on what’s accepted nationwide — go too far in talking about human impact on the climate, rely “too much on theory and not fact,” or promote too secular a view of the world.“I am not in support of the move toward national science standards,” said board member Alisa Ellis, who represents Heber City. She has been the staunchest opponent of the updates; still, the board approved releasing them to the public unanimously.The standards will apply to students in kindergarten through fifth grade, with the last changes made in 2010, and in high school, with the last revisions made in 2002. (Middle school science guidelines for the state were approved in 2015 and set the stage for much of the debate over goals.)Utah science educators largely drove the board to make the latest updates, pleading to members for more than a year, saying that their classroom learning goals were outdated and sometimes based on since-disproven material. “It didn’t really prepare kids for what science is, to discover and learn,” said Ricky Scott, a science specialist with the Utah Office of Education. “We really want to build thinkers and students who can reason through what’s happening in the world today.”

This State Might Require Public Schools to Teach Climate Change - Reading, writing, arithmetic ... and climate science. That doesn't have the same ring as the "three Rs" of education, but Connecticut could one day require the subject to be on the curriculum, The Associated Pressreported.A Connecticut state lawmaker is pushing a bill to mandate the teaching of climate change in public schools throughout the state, starting in elementary school."A lot of schools make the study of climate change an elective, and I don't believe it should be an elective," Democratic state Rep. Christine Palm told the AP. "I think it should be mandatory, and I think it should be early so there's no excuse for kids to grow up ignorant of what's at stake." If House Bill 5011 succeeds, Connecticut could be the first state to make such a requirement by law, according to the National Center for Science Education. Last year, a similar bill was introduced in Connecticut but ultimately failed.

Teachers are scanning students’ brains to check they are concentrating -- Are you concentrating? Some teachers are checking whether their students are paying attention by using headbands that read brain signals.   Focus headbands, made by BrainCo in Massachusetts, were used in a recent trial with 10,000 school children aged between 10 and 17 in China. Over 21 days, students wore the headsets during class and teachers could monitor their average attention levels using an app.   Lights on the front of the headsets also show different colours for distinct …

Hardcore porn at school? Calls for sex education to get more graphic - The internet has given teenagers access to so much porn, fetish and experimental sex that schools may have to get a lot more graphic when addressing classes, a study has found.  Teenagers are becoming more adventurous and are moving away from ‘traditional’ intercourse, according to researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine(LSHTM) and University College London. By monitoring sexual habits, the team found the number of 16-24s moving away from traditional sexual intercourse had doubled. Access to porn online was blamed as one of the problems. “At a time when much sex and relationships education is being updated, keeping pace with current trends in sexual practices is crucial so that curricula are tailored to the realities of young people's experiences” Dr. Ruth Lewis, who conducted the work while at the LSHTM said. “By shedding light on when some young people are having sex and what kinds of sex they are having, our study highlights the need for accurate sex and relationships education that provides opportunities to discuss consent and safety in relation to a range of sexual practices.” Researchers compared today’s sexual practice with what teenagers have been doing since 1990. They found sex was changing, but the age of the teens’ first ever sexual experience has not changed much in almost 30 years. The median age for loss of virginity among men and women born between 1990 and 1996 was 14, yet it is now 16 across for both men and women. However, it has got younger over the decades. The median age in 1950 was 20 for women and 19 for men.

UNC Defends Hosting 'Anti-Semitic' Women's March Leader For MLK Day - The University of North Carolina-Asheville is defending a decision to host Women’s March co-president Tamika Mallory for a lecture, despite concerns of alleged anti-Semitism on her part. Mallory will be giving the keynote address during UNC-Asheville’s Martin Luther King, Jr. Week and will be allocated an hour-and-a-half to speak.On one occasion, Mallory called black nationalist minister Louis Farrakhan “the GOAT,” or “greatest of all time” in a social media post, according to the New York Times. Farrakhan is the leader of the Nation of Islam. He has called Adolf Hitler a “very great man” and compared Jewish people to “termites” on Twitter.   Mallory has worked with Farrakhan’s group, the Nation of Islam, but said she does not agree with “everything” the minister said regarding Jewish people.After concerns were presented to the university regarding Mallory’s troubling history with anti-Semitism, UNC-Asheville issued a “reminder” stating that the university is committed to free speech and open dialogue.  But the school clarified that its decision to host Mallory for the keynote address did not represent an endorsement of the Women’s March co-president’s views.“The Constitutional and democratic principles of freedom of thought and expression are central to our mission as a university, especially during the day honoring the legacy and enduring values of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. As has been our custom, the university’s invitation to an individual speaker at a university event in no way implies endorsement of that speaker’s comments, critiques, views, ideas, or actions,” the university said.“Further, the university’s fundamental principles reject bias in all of its forms including anti-Semitism and discrimination.” The university added that there will be opportunities for the campus community to “engage in dialogue around the keynote address” and reiterated that the university is committed to free inquiry.

Warren presses Wells Fargo on student fees — Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., is questioning Wells Fargo about fees it charged students for financial products marketed to them through agreements with their colleges. The move comes in response to a February 2018 Consumer Financial Protection Bureau report, recently released through a Freedom of Information Act request, that revealed the fees Wells charged college students for debit cards and other financial products were more than three times higher than average charged by other financial institutions. “Wells Fargo has a history of aggressively and sometimes illegally squeezing its customers to boost its profits, and this report illustrates that the bank is deploying similar tactics on America's college campuses to target vulnerable students,” Warren said in a letter Thursday to the bank's chief executive, Tim Sloan. “When granted the privilege of providing financial services to students through colleges, Wells Fargo used this access to charge struggling college students exorbitant fees. These high fees, which are an outlier within the industry, demonstrate conclusively that Wells Fargo does not belong on college campuses.” Wells Fargo and other banks have long entered into agreements with colleges to market and sell their financial products to students. Warren said the arrangements are often “extremely lucrative for both banks and colleges.”

Elizabeth Warren Demands That Wells Fargo to Be Kicked Off College Campuses - Elizabeth Warren is demanding that Wells Fargo & Co. be kicked off college campuses, a market the bank has said is among its fastest-growing. The Democratic senator from Massachusetts and likely presidential candidate said Thursday that she requested more information from Wells Fargo Chief Executive Officer Tim Sloan and from 31 colleges where the bank does business. The inquiry follows a Consumer Financial Protection Bureau report said that Wells Fargo charged students the highest fees of 573 banks examined.“When granted the privilege of providing financial services to students through colleges, Wells Fargo used this access to charge struggling college students exorbitant fees,” Warren said in a statement. “These high fees, which are an outlier within the industry, demonstrate conclusively that Wells Fargo does not belong on college campuses.”Warren has been a vocal critic of Wells Fargo -- including repeatedly calling for Sloan’s ouster -- since a series of consumer issues at the company erupted more than two years ago with a phony-accounts scandal.Wells Fargo is “continually working to improve how we serve our customers,” a bank spokesman said in an emailed statement Thursday. “Before and since the CFPB’s review on this topic, we have been pursuing customer-friendly actions that support students,” including waiving service fees on some checking accounts offered to them. A reputation for overcharging students could further harm Wells Fargo’s consumer-banking strategy. The San Francisco-based bank has identified college-age consumers as a growth opportunity, and John Rasmussen, head of personal lending, said last year that Wells Fargo may expand into the refinancing of federal student loans.

Warren probes ethics officials over Mulvaney's job discussions - — Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., is probing ethics officials at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and the Office of Management and Budget about acting White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney’s reported job discussions with a public university while serving as acting CFPB director and OMB director. In a letter Wednesday to the designated ethics officials at the CFPB and OMB, Warren questioned whether Mulvaney’s discussions with the university were in compliance with the Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge Act. “The STOCK Act was passed to prevent conflicts of interest that would allow senior government officials to enrich themselves, their past employers, or any future employers at the expense of American taxpayers,” Warren wrote. The letter comes after a Jan. 7 New York Times report that Mulvaney initiated discussions with a senior official at the University of South Carolina about the possibility of becoming the school’s next president, while leading the CFPB and the budget office. The report said Mulvaney is still interested in the presidency at the school. Specifically, the STOCK Act requires officials like Mulvaney to recuse themselves from potential conflicts of interest and prohibits them from directly negotiating or having an agreement of future employment at an outside entity unless the negotiations were discussed with ethics officials. Warren said the STOCK Act is particularly important in regard to any discussions Mulvaney may be having about a job at the University of South Carolina, because the school is receiving nearly $200 million in federal grants and contracts in the 2018-19 fiscal year. She added that the CFPB monitors financial products and credit card marketing agreements issued in conjunction with universities and alumni associations, including the University of South Carolina Alumni Association. In the letter, Warren asks the designated ethics officials at the CFPB and the budget office whether Mulvaney disclosed negotiations with the University of South Carolina and if those conversations were in compliance with the STOCK Act. She asked if Mulvaney recused himself from matters involving the school and affiliated entities or if he has been approached about recusing himself from those matters.

American education and the rise of philanthropic capital - The forces of American financial innovation have come up with a new idea to solve the country’s student loan crisis. It just so happens that the idea already exists. So-called income sharing agreements (ISAs) have been touted as a tax-like alternative to debt. Students commit to paying a share of their future income, once they earn a certain amount, in exchange for the money to pay for their educations upfront. The contracts have gained the attention of Wall Street and Silicon Valley,  as the New York Times highlighted earlier this month. This arrangement echoes how the system works in the UK's system of government loans, which are actually income-sharing agreements. In the US, the govermnent also subsidises higher education, and offers graduates access to income-sharing repayment plans for federal loans. The future of the US approach, though, is closely linked to the evolving financial activities of the country's philanthropic foundations, which control an estimated $1.7tn. These developments in turn reflect the growing belief in capital markets as a means of achieving social or public policy outcomes. The first large-scale ISA project of its kind in US history began in 2016 at Purdue University, in Indiana. It was pioneered in partnership with the Jain Family Institute (JFI), a non-profit think tank in New York founded by Bob Jain, formerly at Credit Suisse and now co-chief investment officer of Millennium Management. In its first year, the program provided an average of $15,000 in funding from Purdue’s own endowment to a group of 159 third- and fourth-year students. The allure of ISAs for students stems from the high costs of student debt; for universities, they are an opportunity to invest their often large financial resources in themselves. There are already examples of a pure ISA model. At Lambda school, which is online-only and just received funding from a range of venture capital investors valuing it at $150m, students pay nothing at all, then pay back 17 per cent of their post-graduation salary for 24 months on all earnings over $50,000. The total repayment is capped at $30,000. At Purdue, by contrast, ISAs are just one additional source of funding among many.

Navient seeks to narrow CFPB’s student loan servicing lawsuit - Navient Corp. is seeking a speedy resolution to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s 2-year-old lawsuit against the student loan servicer. On Thursday, it filed a request with a federal judge in Pennsylvania for a summary judgment in two counts against it, accusing the CFPB of failing to provide evidence. The CFPB filed suit against Navient in January 2017, when Richard Cordray was its director, alleging the servicer had unfairly and abusively “steered” borrowers into forbearance, which allows them to temporarily stop making payments, “rather than an income-driven repayment plan,” which reduces the amount of monthly payments. “Two years after filing suit—and more than five years after launching its investigation—the CFPB has not only failed to show that ‘hundreds of thousands’ of borrowers were harmed, it has not identified a single borrower who supports its allegations of ‘steering,' " Navient said in the motion. A summary judgment is a request to rule on the facts, without going to trial. In its motion, Navient said narrowing the case is warranted because the CFPB’s steering allegations are not supported. The CFPB identified 32 borrowers who were harmed, according to the filing. After Navient deposed three, who admitted to receiving income-driven repayment information, the CFPB promptly withdrew 15; it has since removed three others and added one. Fifteen borrowers remain, and Navient has deposed all but one. “All 14 borrowers whom Navient deposed were informed about IDR, including prior to and immediately after obtaining forbearance,” Navient said in the motion. In the filing, Navient notes that servicers are not permitted to enroll borrowers in income-driven repayment over the phone, and that it followed phone calls with further information about the program. It also noted that borrowers often request forbearance to allow time to complete paperwork for income-driven repayment, which generally requires tax returns or pay stubs. “The CFPB cannot meet its burden to show a genuine dispute of material fact with respect to whether Navient informed borrowers about IDR,” the motion states. “At a minimum, a ruling as to Navient’s conduct toward the identified borrowers would serve to define the relevant issues for trial.”

Student Debt Crisis Worsens- Florida Board Of Health Suspends Licenses Over Defaults -- The Florida Board of Health has suspended thousands of healthcare licenses over defaults on student loans many used to earn their licenses. But many are concerned that the new crackdown may only worsen the student loan crisis. The revocation of licenses came after the student loan industry lobbied the government to enact punishments for those who can’t or won’t repay the money they borrowed.According to ABC Action News, only Florida is enforcing this law as of right now. The state also has the power to garnish up to 100% of a worker’s wages until the loan is repaid and the license is reinstated. Under Florida law, once the state suspends a license for student loan default, the only way to get it back is to pay a fine equal to 10 percent of the balance, plus other costs. Investigative Reporter Adam Walser uncovered the state’s Board of Health suspended more than 900 health care licenses – including professional certifications for registered nurses, Certified Nursing Assistants, pharmacists, and opticians – in the just the past two years alone.The I-Team found 12 other states (Alaska, Arkansas, California, Georgia, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Texas) still have the power to take away health care licenses for unpaid student loans, but officials in those states told ABC Action News they have not suspended any licenses over loan defaults in the past two years. –ABC Action News Tampa student loan attorney Christie Arkovich says Florida’s law goes too far.“We’re not saying that people shouldn’t repay their loan,” said Arkovich.“We’re just saying that getting them fired probably isn’t the best way to go about that.” And anyone with a basic understanding of economics could comprehend this.  If they aren’t paying their loans while they have an income, what makes anyone think they’ll start paying the loans once they have no income?

Thanks To Their Student Loans, Millennials Expect To Die In Debt - Adulting, the now common idiom goes, is hard. And to many millennials, the grim realization that debt will always be part of their lives is not making it any easier. In some cases, their debt load is so soul-crushing they expect to die without ever paying what they owe back. So how much does this problem have to do with the higher-education crisis the country is facing? As it turns out, everything. According to a study by Northwestern Mutual, educational loans are the leading source of debt for millennials ages 18 to 24. And according to a CreditCards.com report, over 60 percent of millennials aged 18 to 37 are completely unsure when, or if, they will be able to pay their debt off. Among those who responded they are uncertain about their ability to pay off debt, 20 percent said they expected to die in debt. But to those with only credit card debt, the prospects aren’t as grim, as 79 percent of millennials said they had a plan to pay it all off, expecting to be completely debt-free by age 43. While many of the news outlets reporting on these findings urge young people to get a plan in place so they can pay off their debt, the reality is that government’s push to give everyone a college education is what has greatly contributed to young people’s debt load. And what’s worse, degrees are not actually helping many young people get a job.

Life, Death and Insulin - WaPo - Weeks before his 24th birthday in May 2015, Alec Raeshawn Smith was overcome by troubling symptoms. His body ached, his stomach hurt and he wasn’t sleeping well. The diagnosis was surprising: Type 1 diabetes. Alec’s blood sugar levels were nearly twice the healthy limit. His family didn’t have a history of diabetes, and lanky, 6-foot-3 Alec looked like the picture of health. At 23, he seemed too old for Type 1 diabetes, once known as juvenile diabetes because it often strikes children. But as Alec discovered, Type 1 diabetes is an autoimmune response that can appear at any age. It is not preventable, and there is no known cure. At the clinic, a nurse practitioner discussed the potential complications of the chronic disease, including blindness, nerve damage, and kidney and heart problems, according to medical records. Alec came home with prescriptions for two kinds of insulin: One was long-acting; the other gave him short bursts before meals. Even for his older sister, Brittany Smith, who is a nurse, the learning curve about Type 1 diabetes was steep. “I didn’t really have a handle on it,” she says. Most of her diabetic patients had the far more common Type 2. Not all Type 2 diabetics take insulin, but all Type 1 diabetics do. Alec would need a steady supply for the rest of his life.In 2017, as his 26th birthday neared, his mother had a new worry: He would no longer be covered by her health insurance through her job in the financial aid department of a community college.  The restaurant did not offer insurance, and his $35,000 salary put him above the income limit for Medicaid in Minnesota. What Alec soon learned was just how much his insulin would end up costing: more than $1,000 a month. The price of insulin — once modest — has skyrocketed in recent years, making the lifesaving medication a significant, even burdensome, expense, especially for the uninsured and underinsured. The costs are so heavy that they have driven some patients to ration their supplies of the drug in a dangerous gamble with life-threatening consequences. Within a month of going off her policy, he would be dead. 

In states, Democrats start delivering on health care pledges (AP) — Riding the momentum from November’s elections, Democratic leaders in the states are wasting no time delivering on their biggest campaign promise — to expand access to health care and make it more affordable. The first full week of state legislative sessions and swearings-in for governors saw a flurry of proposals. In his initial actions, newly elected California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced plans to expand Medicaid to those in the country illegally up to age 26, implement a mandate that everyone buy insurance or face a fine, and consolidate the state’s prescription drug purchases in the hope that it will dramatically lower costs. Washington Gov. Jay Inslee proposed a public health insurance option for people who are not covered by Medicaid or private employers and have trouble affording policies on the private market. Democrats in several states where they now control the legislature and governor’s office, including New Mexico, are considering ways that people who are uninsured but make too much to qualify for Medicaid or other subsidized coverage can buy Medicaid policies. And in the nation’s most populous city, New York Mayor Bill de Blasio announced a publicly run plan to link the uninsured, who already receive treatment in city hospitals, with primary care. It’s all in keeping with the main theme Democratic candidates promoted on the campaign trail in 2018. They touted the benefits of former President Barack Obama’s health overhaul — such as protections for people with pre-existing conditions, allowing young adults to remain on their parents’ health insurance policies and expanded coverage options for lower-income Americans. At the same time, they painted Republicans as seeking to eliminate or greatly reduce health care options and protections. “Once you give something to somebody, it’s pretty hard to take it away, and I think we see that with how the support for the (Affordable Care Act) has grown over the last two years,” said Washington House Rep. Eileen Cody, who is leading the state’s public option proposal. The actions also represent a pushback to steps taken by the Trump administration and congressional Republicans to undermine the Affordable Care Act. 

Healthcare Triage: That Low Salt Diet Probably Won’t Prevent Heart Failure – Dr Aaron Carroll - (video) There have been lots of recommendations over the years to eat a low-sodium diet. We’ve talked about the evidence on this before. Well, get ready to taste salt again. Research points to the conclusion that low sodium diets don’t do much to help with heart failure.

This Startup Will Let You Have A Younger Person's Blood For $8,000 - A graduate of Stanford University - incubator of such famous blood-linked companies as Theranos - has launched a controversial start-up company, called Ambrosia, that will, for a generous fee, replace the blood of older people with that of younger donors in yet another attempt to conquer aging. Business Insider reported on the company first, while admitting there is little to no evidence that the procedure actually works.But that hasn’t stopped Amborisa creator Jesse Karmazin, from accepting payments via PayPal for the procedure: he is charging $8,000 for one liter of young blood and $12,000 for two liters. Karmazin, who isn’t a licensed medical practitioner, told reporters last year that he had hoped to open his first clinic in New York City by the end of 2018. New York City has eluded him and instead he has opened locations in places like Los Angeles, San Francisco, Tampa and Houston.  Just like Theranos, the company also performed its own clinical trial to figure out what the effects of blood swapping would be. These results haven’t been made public, but Karmazin has called them "really positive". And despite the fact that there hasn’t been any evidence that it works, Ambrosia is allowed to continue under the FDA‘s approval of blood transfusions.Further propelling the idea forward is the significant amount of interest it has received. After putting up its first website in September, the company reportedly got 100 inquiries (mostly from very rich people) about how to get the treatment. The company's chief operating officer at the time has since left the company in January, leaving its founder as its only employee.

Hospitals Must Now Post Prices. But It May Take a Brain Surgeon to Decipher Them. NYT - Vanderbilt University Medical Center, responding to a new Trump administration order to begin posting all hospital prices, listed a charge of $42,569 for a cardiology procedure described as “HC PTC CLOS PAT DUCT ART.” Baptist Health in Miami helpfully told consumers that an “Embolza Protect 5.5” would cost them $9,818 while a “Visceral selective angio rad” runs a mere $5,538. On Jan. 1, hospitals began complying with a Trump administration order to post list prices for all their services, theoretically offering consumers transparency and choice and forcing health care providers into price competition. It’s turning into a fiasco. “This policy is a tiny step forward, but falls far short of what’s needed,” said Jeanne Pinder, the founder and chief executive of Clear Health Costs, a consumer health research organization. “The posted prices are fanciful, inflated, difficult to decode and inconsistent, so it’s hard to see how an average person would find them useful.”

Judge halts Trump administration’s weakening of Obamacare’s contraceptive mandate - A California federal district court judge halted the Trump administration's weakening of Obamacare's contraceptive mandate Sunday, a day before the new rules were to take effect. The injunction, however, only applies in the coalition of 13 Democratic states, plus the District of Columbia, that brought the lawsuit. In his ruling, Judge Haywood Gilliam, Jr., said the states "face potentially dire public health and fiscal consequences from the implementation of the Final Rules." He noted the states would have to contend with increased costs from providing contraceptive care in clinics to their residents and from a higher rate of unintended pregnancies. Meanwhile, eligible entities can still avail themselves of exemptions or seek accommodations to the mandate. "The law couldn't be clearer -- employers have no business interfering in women's healthcare decisions," said California Attorney General Xavier Becerra, who led the group. "Today's court ruling stops another attempt by the Trump Administration to trample on women's access to basic reproductive care."

Alarming’ burnout is making doctors want to kill themselves - Doctor burnout is becoming a huge problem, according to new research, which finds that nearly half of all physicians feel completely depleted, to the point where one in seven have contemplated suicide.The annual Medscape report, released Wednesday, finds that on average, 44 percent of the medical professionals your existence depends on report feeling stressed out to the point where they’ve considered leaving the field altogether.A higher percentage of these wiped-out life-savers are women, according to the survey of more than 15,000 doctors. “It’s alarming,” says Brunilda Nazario, lead medical director at WebMD, which owns Medscape. “These numbers haven’t changed, and the problem just continues to be a trend, despite increasing programs to address wellness,” such as “nutrition and exercise programs, or more time off.”  The reason for the scary numbers isn’t what you would think: Most doctors say it’s the level of paperwork and data input they’ve had to do since medical records went digital. Doctors end up spending about 45 minutes per patient visit on tasks like “inputting data codes for the visit,” Nazario says, leaving little face-to-face time with patients.  “[Doctors] are spending an enormous amount of time taking in data during physician-patient visits,” she says. “I know during my last visit for my physician, I think the doctor spent no more than two minutes looking at me. They were looking at a computer screen.”  The result is scary: “I dread coming to work,” one neurologist says in the report.

V.A. Seeks to Redirect Billions of Dollars Into Private Care— The Department of Veterans Affairs is preparing to shift billions of dollars from government-run veterans’ hospitals to private health care providers, setting the stage for the biggest transformation of the veterans’ medical system in a generation.Under proposed guidelines, it would be easier for veterans to receive care in privately run hospitals and have the government pay for it. Veterans would also be allowed access to a system of proposed walk-in clinics, which would serve as a bridge between V.A. emergency rooms and private providers, and would require co-pays for treatment.Veterans’ hospitals, which treat seven million patients annually, have struggled to see patients on time in recent years, hit by a double crush of returning Iraq and Afghanistan veterans and aging Vietnam veterans. A scandal over hidden waiting lists in 2014 sent Congress searching for fixes, and in the years since, Republicans have pushed to send veterans to the private sector, while Democrats have favored increasing the number of doctors in the V.A. If put into effect, the proposed rules — many of whose details remain unclear as they are negotiated within the Trump administration — would be a win for the once-obscure Concerned Veterans for America, an advocacy group funded by the network founded by the billionaire industrialists Charles G. and David H. Koch, which has long championed increasing the use of private sector health care for veterans.  For individual veterans, private care could mean shorter waits, more choices and fewer requirements for co-pays — and could prove popular. But some health care experts and veterans’ groups say the change, which has no separate source of funding, would redirect money that the current veterans’ health care system — the largest in the nation — uses to provide specialty care. Critics have also warned that switching vast numbers of veterans to private hospitals would strain care in the private sector and that costs for taxpayers could skyrocket. In addition, they say it could threaten the future of traditional veterans’ hospitals, some of which are already under review for consolidation or closing.

Memorial Sloan Kettering Curbs Executives’ Ties to Industry After Conflict-of-Interest Scandals - ProPublica - Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, one of the world’s leading research institutions, announced on Friday that it would bar its top executives from serving on corporate boards of drug and health care companies that, in some cases, had paid them hundreds of thousands of dollars a year. Hospital officials also told the center’s staff that the executive board had made permanent a series of reforms designed to limit the ways in which its top executives and leading researchers could profit from work developed at Memorial Sloan Kettering, a nonprofit with a broad social mission that admits about 23,500 cancer patients each year. The conflicts at Memorial Sloan Kettering, unearthed by The New York Times and ProPublica, have had a rippling effect on other leading cancer institutions across the country. Dana-Farber Cancer Institute in Boston and Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, both of whose executives sit on corporate boards, are among the institutions reconsidering their policies on financial ties. In the wake of reports about board memberships held by Memorial Sloan Kettering officials last fall, Dr. Craig B. Thompson, the hospital’s chief executive, resigned in October from the board of Merck. The company, which makes the blockbuster cancer drug Keytruda, had paid him about $300,000 in 2017 for his service.  The announcement on Friday was one of several steps the cancer center said it was considering as part of an institutionwide overhaul of its corporate relationships and conflict-of-interest policies. The cancer center has hired Deloitte as well as two law firms, Ropes & Gray and Debevoise & Plimpton, to help conduct its reviews.

A blizzard of prescriptions’: Documents reveal new details about Purdue’s marketing of OxyContin - When Purdue Pharma started selling its prescription opioid painkiller OxyContin in 1996, Dr. Richard Sackler asked people gathered for the launch party to envision natural disasters like an earthquake, a hurricane, or a blizzard. The debut of OxyContin, said Sackler — a member of the family that started and controls the company and then a company executive — “will be followed by a blizzard of prescriptions that will bury the competition.” Five years later, as questions were raised about the risk of addiction and overdoses that came with taking OxyContin and opioid medications, Sackler outlined a strategy that critics have long accused the company of unleashing: divert the blame onto others, particularly the people who became addicted to opioids themselves. Sackler’s comments at the party and his email are contained in newly public portions of a lawsuit filed by the state of Massachusetts against Purdue that alleges that the company, the Sackler family, and company executives misled prescribers and patients as they aimed to blanket the country with prescriptions for their addictive medications.“By their misconduct, the Sacklers have hammered Massachusetts families in every way possible,” the state’s complaint says, noting that since 2007, Purdue has sold more than 70 million doses of opioids in Massachusetts for more than $500 million. “And the stigma they used as a weapon made the crisis worse.” The new filing also reveals how Purdue aggressively pursued tight relationships with Tufts University’s Health Sciences Campus and Massachusetts General Hospital — two of the state’s premier academic medical centers — to expand prescribing by physicians, generate goodwill toward opioid painkillers among medical students and doctors in training, and combat negative reports about opioid addiction.

Oddly Enough, More Big Pharma Kickbacks for Docs Are Associated With More Opioid Deaths  - It’s been an infuriating week on the opioid news front. Just days ago, theNew York Times reported on court documents revealing how the Sackler family, which owns the company that makes OxyContin, pushed doctors to prescribe more and more dangerous opioids, urging “that sales representatives advise doctors to prescribe the highest dosage of the powerful opioid painkiller because it was the most profitable.” Today, astudy published in JAMA Network Open reveals exactly how that kind of pressure works—and how well it works. As the New York Times’ reported, the study found that “for every three additional payments that companies made to doctors per 100,000 people in a county, overdose deaths involving prescription opioids there a year later were 18 percent higher.” Over two years, the study said, “$39.7 million in opioid marketing was targeted to 67 507 physicians across 2208 US counties,” with 434,754 total payments made. One of the counties with high levels of physician payments and opioid deaths was Cabell County, West Virginia, which the Times said has “one of the highest overdose death rates in the nation,” though its overdose totals dropped 40 percent in 2018,according to the Herald-Dispatch. Still, the 95,000-person county was seeing “an average of three emergency calls a day” for overdoses, the paper reported.The data on these payments comes from the Open Payments database and includes things like “meals, travel costs, speaking fees, honoraria, consulting fees, or educational costs.” These kinds of payments are commonplace in the medical business (and it is a business, unfortunately): A 2017 study found that about half of doctors received payments from pharmaceutical companies. And these companies spend more on marketing  than they do on research and development, despite critics’ claims that Medicare for All would kill pharmaceutical “innovation.”

Science with borders: A debate over genetic sequences and national rights threatens to inhibit research - There is something that is weighing heavily on the minds of some infectious diseases scientists these days. I It’s an international treaty. More specifically, it’s an agreement within a treaty that could, depending on how negotiations play out, make it extraordinarily difficult to conduct disease surveillance or forge research collaborations around the world. The agreement — known as the Nagoya Protocol — could drown researchers in oceans of paperwork and hobble the world’s scientists when they must next race to combat a new disease disaster, some fear. The protocol is part of the Convention on Biodiversity, an international treaty aimed at protecting each country’s control over its own biological resources. It lays out ways by which biological resources may be shared and the benefits of those resources be distributed. But since the protocol came into force in October 2014, debate has raged about whether the genetic sequences of pathogens — the string of code that characterizes a flu bug making the rounds or an Ebola virus isolated from a stricken health worker — are subject to the agreement. More than 100 countries have ratified the protocol. The United States, which is not a party to the Convention on Biodiversity, has not. Some involved in the debate argue genetic sequences aren’t covered by Nagoya, and that the free sharing of digital genetic information is so entrenched in scientific practice — scientific journals require it of their authors — that there’s no going back. Plus, some argue, to subject genetic sequence data to further bureaucracy would be counterproductive to science and dangerous to public health.

Lab strips DNA pioneer James Watson of honours for racist views - Nobel Prize-winning scientist James Watson has been stripped of his honours by his former laboratory after doubling down on controversial remarks he made on the relationship between race and genetics in 2007.The Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory (CSHL) in New York said Watson's most recent comments in a 2018 documentary were "completely and utterly incompatible" with its mission.Watson has courted controversy among geneticists for his belief that there was a genetic link between race and intelligence.  In 2007, he said he was "inherently gloomy" about Africa's prospects because Western policies towards the continent assumed Africans were as intelligent as Europeans. The scientist, who helped identify the double-helix structure of the DNA molecule, stated in the documentary that he still held on to that view. CSHL relieved Watson of his duties after the 2007 episode and stripped him of his honorary titles on Friday, calling his opinions "unsubstantiated and reckless".

NSC- More likely to die from opioid overdose in US than car accident (CNN) – For the first time on record the odds of accidentally dying from an opioid overdose in the United States are now greater than those of dying in an automobile accident. The grim finding comes from the National Safety Council which analyzed preventable injury and fatality statistics from 2017. The NSC also found the lifetime odds of death for this form of overdose were greater than the risk of death from falls, pedestrian incidents, drowning and fire. Examining a variety of federal and state data the NSC found the lifetime odds of dying from an accidental opioid overdose were 1 in 96. For motor vehicle accidents the odds were 1 in 103 and 1 in 114 for falls. The lifetime odds of suicide were greater, at 1 in 88. The NSC highlights, however, that the odds given are statistical averages over the whole US population and do not necessarily reflect the chances of death for a particular person from a particular external cause. In addition they are lifetime odds, based on dividing the one-year odds by the life expectancy of a person born in 2017. In 2017 preventable injury deaths were 169,936 — an increase of 5.3% from the year before and a 96% increase compared to the figures in 1992. The organization aims to highlight these numbers in a bid to help prevent future deaths from preventable causes. “For too long, preventable deaths and injuries have been called ‘accidents,’ implying unavoidable acts of God or fate that we are powerless to stop. This is simply not true,” it wrote. “In the US, preventable injuries are at an all-time high.”

Air pollution increases ER visits for breathing problems --As levels of ozone and fine particulate pollution (PM2.5) rise, more patients end up in the ER with breathing problems, according to the largest U.S. study of air pollution and respiratory emergency room visits of patients of all ages. The study was published online in the American Thoracic Society's American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine.In "Age-specific Associations of Ozone and PM2.5 with Respiratory Emergency Department Visits in the U.S.," Heather M. Strosnider, PhD, MPH, and colleagues report on the associations between ground-level ozone and fine particulate pollution and ER visits for asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and respiratory infections."Previous studies of ER visits related to respiratory illness have shown that children are particularly susceptible to air pollution, but those studies were mostly confined to a single city," said Dr. Strosnider, lead health scientist at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) National Environmental Public Health Tracking Program (Tracking Program). The researchers leveraged the data available through the Tracking Program to look at the association between air pollution and respiratory ER visits across hundreds of U.S. counties. 

Lead in School Water- Less Than Half the States Test for It, and Fewer Require It - Five years after the Flint water crisis reminded Americans about the danger of lead in drinking water, nearly half of U.S. students are attending schools in states that don’t have programs or requirements to test tap water in schools, according to a new report.  And the 24 states, plus the District of Columbia, that do require testing for lead or have programs to conduct that testing lack uniformity in how they go about it, researchers from Harvard University and the University of California pointed out in the report, released Wednesday. Only seven states and D.C. require water tests in schools; in the other 17 states with programs, participation is voluntary.State protocols vary widely on basic features, such as how much lead in the water triggers a state response, how the tests are conducted, how the testing data is maintained and whether the state pays any of the testing costs.The patchwork of policies can have a big impact on how -- and whether -- schools respond to lead found in their water. For example, schools that tested the water of multiple taps were more likely to find elevated lead levels, but not all states that require lead tests require multiple taps to be tested. What’s more, 44 percent of schools reported lead levels higher than their state threshold for action. Meanwhile, if all of them adopted the same threshold that applies to bottled water, “there could be more than a doubling in the proportion of schools that would need to take steps in order to reduce the lead in their drinking water.”

 The Shutdown Will Harm the Health and Safety of Americans, Even After It’s Long Over -- With the U.S. federal government shutdown now the longest in history, it’s important to understand what a shutdown means for the health and safety of Americans. As the shutdown draws on, it increasingly weakens the government’s ability to protect Americans down the road, long after federal workers are allowed to go back to work. Many of these effects are largely invisible and may feel intangible because they don’t currently affect specific individuals. However, the shutdown poses a very real threat to preparedness for future emergencies, such as natural disasters and disease outbreaks. It also damages the government’s ability to recruit and retain the experts needed to work at the cutting edge of public health. Much funding for disaster recovery that is already underway is funded in appropriations separate from those that fund the shuttered parts of government. On Dec. 26, however, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which contracts private contractors for a large share of their work, ordered its contractors to cease working on several projects. Even for programs with funding, progress is made difficult by a shortage of several thousand staff members. When President Trump signaled to the Senate that he would not sign into law the appropriations bills that had passed the House, leading to the shutdown, funding with bipartisan support for disaster recovery died too. This impedes disaster relief efforts in the states that experienced disaster in the past two years. Among others, it leaves victims of the forest fires in California and victims of Hurricane Florence in the Carolinas waiting for crucial help needed to recover. The shutdown also weakens the government’s ability to foresee, prevent and respond to upcoming natural disasters. For example, hurricane modelers with NOAA, the agency chiefly responsible for storm forecasts, are furloughed. In general, first responders and emergency experts use the off season to prepare for the next disaster season, but reports show that the prolonged shutdown is preventing some of this preparation, such as training for essential staff and forecasters. More scary still is the possibility of a widespread disease. The lapse in funding also means that Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness Act did not renew as expected.

Ebola Has Gotten So Bad, It’s Normal - Nearly 600 people have contracted Ebola since last August in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, making the ongoing outbreak the second largest in the 43-year history of humanity’s battle with the deadly virus. And there is a genuine threat that this Congo health crisis—the 10th the African nation has faced—could become essentially permanent in the war-torn region bordering South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi, making a terrible transition from being epidemic to endemic. Despite having a tool kit at its disposal that is unrivaled—including a vaccine, new diagnostics, experimental treatments, and a strong body of knowledge regarding how to battle the hemorrhage-causing virus—the small army of international health responders and humanitarian workers in Congo is playing whack-a-mole against a microbe that keeps popping up unexpectedly and proving impossible to control. This is not because of any special attributes of the classic strain of Ebola—the same genetic strain that has been successfully tackled many times before—but because of humans and their behaviors in a quarter-century-old war zone. The sheer duration of the present epidemic means that the 4.5 million people in the currently affected North Kivu province of Congo are no longer the only ones in danger. The rest of the country and populations in the bordering nations of Uganda, Rwanda, South Sudan, and Burundi are now at risk, too.  In past brushes with Ebola, humanity has won out by tediously, and often perilously, finding an infected individual and then tracking backward through the person’s recent life to reckon who might have had contact with the ailing patient, building a chain of transmission that not only leads back to the first case introduced into a given location but also steers the disease detectives toward the killer’s next likely targets.  But day after day, cases are popping up all over North Kivu that don’t connect to any known chains of transmission—it’s as if they popped out of thin air. The problem: North Kivu is one of the most violent places on Earth, rife with distrust, rumors, conflicts, and multigenerational hatreds. Investigators can’t find the links in the disease chains because the people there do not trust anything, even the very idea that a virus called Ebola exists, and refuse to comply with investigations.

Adding New DNA Letters Make Novel Proteins Possible - The fuzzy specks growing on discs of jelly in Floyd Romesberg’s lab at Scripps Research in La Jolla look much like any other culture of E. coli. But appearances deceive—for the DNA of these bacteria is written in an alphabet that has six chemical letters instead of the usual four. Every other organism on Earth relies on a quartet of genetic bases: a(adenine), c (cytosine), t (thymine) and g (guanine). These fit together in pairs inside a double-stranded dna molecule, a matching t and c, g. But in 2014 Dr Romesberg announced that he had synthesised a new, unnatural, base pair, dubbed x and y, and slipped them into the genome of E. coli as well. Kept supplied with sufficient quantities of x and y, the new cells faithfully replicated the enhanced dna—and, crucially, their descendants continued to do so, too.  In a normal cell, protein-making is a factory-like operation. dna is first transcribed into rna—also a string of bases, but a single, rather than a double strand. The rna’s bases are then read, in groups of three known as codons, by a molecular machine called a ribosome. Sixty-one of the 64 possible codons correspond to one of 20 versions of a type of molecule called an amino acid. The other three act as “stop” signals. When a ribosome reads a codon, it links it with another molecule that carries the appropriate amino acid. The resulting string of amino acids is a protein. The potential of semisynthetic cells is to do something similar, but with an un-natural protein as the result. That would permit a wider range of properties. Others have tried to achieve this by repurposing superfluous “stop” codons to encode novel amino acids, and one firm, Ambrx, has succeeded in doing so industrially. But this approach can add a maximum of only two amino acids to the existing set. Dr Romesberg’s process has already beaten that, with two published successes and another eight awaiting publication. His system could, in principle, provide 152 extra codons on top of the existing 64. 

EU Approval of Glyphosate Based on Review That Plagiarized Monsanto Studies - The European Union's license extension of the world's most popular weedkiller, glyphosate, was based on a review that heavily plagiarized industry studies, according to a report (pdf) commissioned by European parliamentarians (MEPs).The new analysis released Tuesday compares whether a risk assessment of the controversial herbicide was actually authored by scientists representing Germany's Federal Institute for Risk Assessment (BfR) or by the European Glyphosate Task Force (GTF), an industry group that includes Monsanto, the manufacturer of glyphosate-based Roundup, in its ranks."Plagiarism was discovered exclusively in the chapters dealing with the assessment of published studies on health risks related to glyphosate," according to the report by plagiarism researcher Stefan Weber and biochemist Helmut Burtscher-Schaden. "In these chapters, 50.1 percent of the content was identified as plagiarism."In one of their most "remarkable findings," the report's authors determined that even BfR's assessment methods were directly lifted from GTF text."The BfR had thus copied Monsanto's explanation of Monsanto's approach in evaluating the published literature, yet had presented it as the approach of the authority. This is a striking example of deception regarding true authorship," the report states.The BfR and the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) rejected the World Health Organization's International Agency for Research on Cancer's March 2015 classification of glyphosate as a possible carcinogen. The EFSA based its conclusion on the BfR's stance. Critics have previously accused both agencies of its close ties to the industry.Weber pointed out to POLITICO that BfR's plagiarizing also means that dozens of studies dismissed by the Glyphosate Task Force were s imilarly disregarded by European food safety authorities.

Safe Or Not, Roundup Is Toxic for Bayer - In Werner Baumann's world, the truth is one-dimensional, as he likes to put it, based on facts and scientific findings, studies and expert opinions. That's why the head of Germany's Bayer Group has no doubts about the safety of glyphosate. He says he would acquire Monsanto, the American manufacturer of the controversial crop herbicide at any time, "without any ifs, ands or buts."But the world outside Bayer Group views things differently. A large segment of the public considers glyphosate to be toxic and Monsanto itself to be the epitome of evil. Thousands of farmers with cancer have filed lawsuits against Monsanto's new owner, and investors now view Bayer shares as high-risk stocks they don't want to include in their portfolios. This has made the past year one of the most difficult in Bayer Group's 155-year history. The new year could prove to be even more turbulent, and it's possible the situation could grow even more perilous for the company.  "Life is always life-threatening," says Baumann. "In both the corporate and private spheres, we make decisions that entail risks every day." But of course, "all reputation issues and risks were actively identified and assessed" in the course of the Monsanto acquisition. It is now clear, however, that the company clearly underestimated them. Bayer's supervisory board unanimously approved the $63 billion acquisition, the most expensive in German business history. Bayer has shed more than 30 billion euros from its market capitalization since the acquisition in the summer of 2018, largely because Monsanto lost one of the first lawsuits against it relating to glyphosate. Bayer executives have been almost desperate in their attempts to reassure shareholders: The company is cutting huge numbers of jobs, selling off parts of the company and has even announced the repurchase of its own shares -- a step usually taken by companies swimming in money that are unsure how to invest it. So far, though, none of these measures have had the desired effect.

Half of Michigan's Bumblebee Species in Decline, One Extinct -  Honeybees get a lot of attention for their worrisome decline, but many species of bumblebees—which are key pollinators—are also in trouble.In Michigan, half of its bumblebee species have declined by 50 percent or more, Michigan Radio reported."Of those twelve species, about half of them have declined and the other half are stable," Thomas Wood, a post-doctoral research associate at Michigan State University, told the radio station.Of the six species that have declined, their numbers dropped by more than 50 percent, Wood added. One species, the rusty patched bumblebee, has even gone extinct in Michigan.In 2017, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service classified the rusty patched bumblebee as an endangered species, the first bumblebee in the country and the first wild bee of any kind in the continental U.S. to receiveEndangered Species Act protection. The bee, identified by its reddish abdomen, was once common and abundant across 28 states from Connecticut to South Dakota, the District of Columbia and two Canadian provinces, but its population plummeted by 87 percent since the late 1990s.  There are many factors tied to Michigan's disappearing bumblebees, Michigan Radio reported, including loss of flowers, destruction of prairie and wooded areas that provide habitat for insects, as well as a controversial class of insecticides called neonicotinoids that have been linked to bee deaths around the world. Neonicotinoids are "acutely toxic to bees and they're used in agriculture. Almost all the corn that's planted in Michigan, and in the Midwest more generally, is treated with these insecticides," Wood explained.

How one heatwave killed 'a third' of a bat species in Australia - Over two days in November, record-breaking heat in Australia's north wiped out almost one-third of the nation's spectacled flying foxes, according to researchers. The animals, also known as spectacled fruit bats, were unable to survive in temperatures which exceeded 42C. In the city of Cairns, locals saw bats toppling from trees into backyards, swimming pools and other locations. Wildlife rescuers found surviving animals clumped together, usually on branches closer to the ground. "It was totally depressing," one rescuer, David White, told the BBC. Last week, researchers from Western Sydney University finalised their conclusion that about 23,000 spectacled flying foxes died in the event on 26 and 27 November. That tally was reached through counting by wildlife volunteers who visited seven flying fox camps following the heatwave. Lead researcher Dr Justin Welbergen, an ecologist, believes the "biblical scale" of deaths could be even higher - as many as 30,000 - because some settlements had not been counted.Australia had only an estimated 75,000 spectacled flying foxes before November, according to government-backed statistics. "This sort of event has not happened in Australia this far north since European settlement," says Dr Welbergen, who is also the president of the Australasian Bat Society, a not-for-profit conservation group.

A Record 589 Sea Turtles Killed By Florida's Toxic Red Tide --  Florida's longest red tide in more than a decade has killed scores of the state's most iconic marine animals.The current outbreak, which began in October 2017 off southwest Florida, has been tied to a record 589 sea turtle deaths and 213 manatee deaths, the Herald-Tribune reported, citing figures from the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission.As of December 20, 127 bottlenose dolphins have been stranded along the southwest coast, according to theNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The mammals showed positive results for the red tide toxin, brevetoxin.That's not to mention the massive fish kills that resulted from the toxic algae bloom.Sea turtle species that have been affected by the poisonous brew including loggerhead and Kemp's ridley sea turtles, both of which are federally protected. Kemp's ridleys are considered the world's most endangered marine turtle. Local turtle patrollers, including Suzi Fox, the director of Anna Maria Island Turtle Watch & Shorebird Monitoring, told the Herald-Tribune that the outbreak could affect next year's sea turtle nesting season, an unfortunate turn after several record seasons. Blooms of the red tide organism, Karenia brevis, were detected as recently as Jan. 11 in southwest Florida, including "high" cell concentrations (more than 1 million cells per liter) in Sarasota County and offshore of Collier County, according to the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission.

Insect collapse: ‘We are destroying our life support systems’ - “We knew that something was amiss in the first couple days,” said Brad Lister. “We were driving into the forest and at the same time both Andres and I said: ‘Where are all the birds?’ There was nothing.”His return to the Luquillo rainforest in Puerto Rico after 35 years was to reveal an appalling discovery. The insect population that once provided plentiful food for birds throughout the mountainous national park had collapsed. On the ground, 98% had gone. Up in the leafy canopy, 80% had vanished. The most likely culprit by far is global warming.“It was just astonishing,” Lister said. “Before, both the sticky ground plates and canopy plates would be covered with insects. You’d be there for hours picking them off the plates at night. But now the plates would come down after 12 hours in the tropical forest with a couple of lonely insects trapped or none at all.”“It was a true collapse of the insect populations in that rainforest,” he said. “We began to realise this is terrible – a very, very disturbing result.”Earth’s bugs outweigh humans 17 times over and are such a fundamental foundation of the food chain that scientists say a crash in insect numbers risks “ecological Armageddon”. When Lister’s study was published in October, one expert called the findings “hyper-alarming”. The Puerto Rico work is one of just a handful of studies assessing this vital issue, but those that do exist are deeply worrying. Flying insect numbers in Germany’s natural reserves have plunged 75% in just 25 years. The virtual disappearance of birds in an Australian eucalyptus forest was blamed on a lack of insects caused by drought and heat. Lister and his colleague Andrés García also found that insect numbers in a dry forest in Mexico had fallen 80% since the 1980s. “We are essentially destroying the very life support systems that allow us to sustain our existence on the planet, along with all the other life on the planet,” Lister said. “It is just horrifying to watch us decimate the natural world like this.”

Farming insects may solve one problem but create others, scientists warn - Insects have great potential as an alternative source of protein, but further research is urgently needed before mass production begins in order to avoid environment disaster, Swedish researchers warned Monday. There is currently an "overwhelming lack of knowledge" on basic questions such as suitable species, their housing and feed requirements, managing their waste and that escaping insects do not wreak havoc on the ecosystem, they said. Unless such issues are studied and discussed in a critical manner, "we risk creating an industry that replaces one environmental problem with another," they wrote in the journal Trends in Ecology & Evolution. Globally, growing demand for animal protein has led to expanded cultivation of soybeans to feed livestock and poultry, but critics say the system is unsustainable and leads to deforestation and overuse of farm chemicals. Nutritionists and scientists have been touting insects as sustainable and cheap source of protein to feed a growing world because they are high in protein, vitamins, fibre and minerals. Insects emit fewer greenhouse gases and less ammonia than cattle or pigs and require significantly less land and water than cattle, according to the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). More than 1,900 species of insects are edible, according to the FAO. Businesses are already jumping into the sector, producing burgers made of buffalo worms, sweet potato soup made with bugs, grubs as pet food and DIY insect farms. However, "future environmental impact of the mass rearing of insects is largely unknown," said the Swedish scientists

Key West Moves To Ban Sunscreens That Could Damage Reefs - The Key West City Commission on Tuesday unanimously voted to ban the sale of sunscreens that contain two ingredients — oxybenzone and octinoxate — that a growing body of scientific evidence says harm coral reefs. “This ordinance is just one other thing we can do to help improve and protect our water quality,” said Mill McCleary, of the nonprofit environmental protection group Reef Relief. The measure, which passed 7-0, isn’t law yet, though. The commission must review it a second time and pass the measure again before it would become law. The second vote is scheduled for Feb. 5. Nearly 100 people turned out for the debate, and 50 people — including dermatologists, boat captains and schoolchildren — signed up to speak on the proposal. 

Future of coffee in doubt as 60 per cent of plants now at risk of extinction -- Coffee drinking is in danger after a new study found that 60 per cent of plants are now at risk of extinction, including the variety which produces most of the world’s beans.  Researchers at the Royal Botanic Gardens at Kew, have found that 75 of the world's 124 wild coffee species are under threat from the loss of forests, climate change and the worsening problem of fungal disease and pests.They include wild Arabica, a species from Ethiopia that has been cultivated to provide 60 per cent of the multibillion-pound global trade in coffee. Coffee farmers, who grow either Arabica or Robusta coffee, have already begun to report their crops being affected by changing weather patterns, rising temperatures and new pests and diseases. Dr Davis, lead author of the study said: "What we're saying is 60 per cent is just really high, that's a real wake-up call. For a major global commodity, that starts ringing alarm bells. "It's a tragedy losing any wild species, whether it's a bird or plant or animal, that's bad enough. "But when you've got a crop that supports the livelihoods of 100 million people just in production in coffee farming, then you look at value of high street coffee chains and supermarket coffee, it's enormous."In a study published in Science Advances, scientists assessed wild coffee species against the extinction risk criteria of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species.Of the varieties threatened with extinction, 13 species are in the most at-risk category of critically endangered, while 40 are endangered and 22 vulnerable to extinction. Fewer than half of the wild coffee species are held in seed banks or living plant collections and more than a quarter (28 per cent) are not known to occur in any protected areas, the scientists also warn.

Tropical rainforests have a soundtrack. Recording it may save them. -  Imagine a human city which has lost half of its inhabitants, or in which its diverse populations have been winnowed down to a single culture. While the buildings and roads may be standing, the many interactions that make the city hum would largely vanish. That’s what’s happening in many forests.  Despite appearing healthy from above, forests are falling silent as their inhabitants die off. The primary signature of human disturbance in forests is the absence it leaves behind. Sound promises to help save them. In a paper published in the January issue of the journal Science, tropical researchers proposed a way to monitor biodiversity, on a budget, over vast areas of remote rainforest. The burgeoning field is called bioacoustics.  Every location has a natural soundscape. Scientists use microphones to capture the aural signature of an ecosystem’s inhabitants from its tiniest creatures to its resident humans. The approach has long been used in the oceans to detect vocalizations of mammals, but not always in forests. Yet one networked recorder device can detect “vocalizing biodiversity”—the calls and songs of birds, mammals, insects, and amphibians, from hundreds of meters away and feed that into a central database to paint a picture of the ecosystem.  The authors argue that bioacoustics could fill in a critical gap for conservation projects: monitoring the ongoing health of a forest after it’s been saved.

Trump’s executive order will aggressively cut more forest trees - With a partial government shutdown looming, President Trump quietly issued an executive order that expands logging on public land on the grounds that it will curb deadly wildfires. The declaration, issued the Friday before Christmas, reflects Trump’s interest in forest management since a spate of wildfires ravaged California last year. While many scientists and Western governors have urged federal officials to adopt a suite of policies to tackle the problem, including cuts in greenhouse gases linked to climate change, the president has focused on expanding timber sales.The executive order instructs the secretaries of agriculture and interior to consider harvesting a total of 4.4 billion board feet of timber from forest land managed by their agencies on millions of acres, and put it up for sale. The order would translate into a 31 percent increase in forest service logging since 2017.The president wanted to sign an executive order on the issue during his trip to California in mid-November, said one individual familiar with the matter, but it wasn’t ready for his signature. In addition to removing trees, Trump asked his secretaries to remove forest brush and debris that help fuel fires from more than 4 million acres and treat another 1.5 million acres to control tree-destroying pests. The order, published last week in the Federal Register, does not specify a deadline to accomplish the president’s goal. “We can’t log our way out of the fire problem — thinning all the forests is not possible,” the fire ecologist said. “And even if it were, it won’t stop fires in the extreme weather that is happening more frequently, and will in the future.”

How Donald Trump′s wall separates and endangers wildlife -   "The border area is a biodiversity hotspot, it's one of the most biodiverse areas in the world," Jenni Miller, a senior scientist with Washington DC-based non-profit conservation organization Defenders of Wildlife, told DW. Miller co-authored an October article, "Nature Divided, Scientists United: US-Mexico Border Wall Threatens Biodiversity and Binational Conservation," which details the environmental damage caused by the existing 1000 or so kilometers (621 miles) of barriers —  a sporadic collection of fences, posts and spikes — incrementally constructed along the US-Mexico border since 2007. The article, which was co-signed by 2,700 scientists from 47 countries, argues that the situation will be exacerbated by Trump's plans for a solid structure.  It's by no means the first attempt to flag up how 3,145 kilometers of hard barricades could negatively affect local flora and fauna.  "Trump's border wall will be a deathblow to already endangered animals on both sides of the U.S.-Mexico border," began a May 2017 survey by the Center for Biological Diversity titled "A Wall in the Wild."According to Defenders of Wildlife, around 1,500 plant and animal species, including some 60 listed as endangered or vulnerable, are found within the five binational habitat corridors along the southern border.Blocking them off with a towering uninterrupted concrete barrier would, just by way of example, prevent red listed Peninsular bighorn sheep from accessing water and breeding sites between California and Mexico, and stop Mexican gray wolf and endangered Sonoran pronghorn from dispersing across the border to reestablish tattered populations. Likewise, the National Butterfly Center, a sanctuary for 200 butterfly species in Texas — including the threatened monarch, whose Mexican population has declined nearly 90 percent since 1996 — is in the path of the proposed wall.

Wildlife Under Siege at the World’s Oldest Lake -- Lake Baikal is the world's oldest and deepest lake. It's at least 20 million years old, and roughly a mile deep at its lowest point. The Siberian lake contains holds more water than all the North American Great Lakes combined, what amounts to more than one-fifth of all the water found in lakes, swamps and rivers. It was formed by the shifting of tectonic plates, which created a valley that filled with water. That shift continues today at a rate of around 1 to 2 centimeters year, meaning the world's biggest lake is only getting bigger.  What's more, Lake Baikal—the name means "nature lake" in Mongolian—is rich in oxygen from top to bottom, meaning life can thrive in its furthest depths. In most deep lakes, the lower waters are absent of oxygen. The surfeit of oxygen helps support a rich diversity of life. Most of the species in the lake—often called the "Galapagos of Russia"—are found nowhere else in the world. UNESCO has designated Baikal a World Heritage Site, calling it "the most outstanding example of a freshwater ecosystem," saying "its age and isolation have produced one of the world's richest and most unusual freshwater faunas, which is of exceptional value to evolutionary science."  So it seems especially tragic that Lake Baikal—like many critically important ecosystems around the world—is now under siege from climate change. Its wildlife face increasing dangers from rising temperatures and pollution. In some places, untreated sewage has fed the growth of green algae, which gobble up oxygen, leaving little or none leftover for other marine life.

Warning: A 'Shrinking Window' of Usable Groundwater -We're living beyond our means when it comes to groundwater. That's probably not news to everyone, but new research suggests that, deep underground in a number of key aquifers in some parts of the U.S., we may have much less water than previously thought. "We found that the average depth of water resources across the country was about half of what people had previously estimated," said Jennifer McIntosh, a distinguished scholar and professor of hydrology and atmospheric sciences at the University of Arizona. McIntosh and her colleagues—who published a new study about these aquifers in November in Environmental Research Letters—took a different approach to assessing groundwater than other research, which has used satellites to measure changes in groundwater storage. For example, a 2015 study looked at 37 major aquifers across the world and found some were being depleted faster than they were being replenished, including in California's agriculturally intensive Central Valley. McIntosh says those previous studies revealed a lot about how we're depleting water resources from the top down through extraction, such as pumping for agriculture and water supplies, especially in places like California. Instead of examining how fast water tables were falling, as in previous studies, the researchers looked at water chemistry to determine how deep underground you could drill for freshwater or brackish water before that water became too salty to use.

After the fire- Blazes pose hidden threat to the West's drinking water - When Gerald and Serene Buhrz fled their home at 2:00 a.m. on Oct. 8, 2017, the flames of the massive Tubb Fire had already engulfed most of the Fountaingrove neighborhood on the north side of Santa Rosa, Calif. They returned to their devastated street eight hours later to find their two-story stucco home still standing. It was surrounded by the embers of burned houses but untouched by flames.  Not all fire damage, however, is visible to the eye.  When Serene Buhrz turned the water on for the first time several days later, the chemical smell from their kitchen tap was overpowering. "It was so strong you felt like you couldn't light a match," said her husband Gerald. Santa Rosa Water found the problem was not confined to the Buhrz home. Throughout Fountaingrove, plastic water pipes had melted as houses burned, releasing a carcinogenic chemical called benzene into the neighborhood's water system.For nearly a year after the fire, Fountaingrove residents were told not to drink water from the tap, even if it was boiled first. Though their home was spared, the Buhrzes chose to live in a hotel for the 11 months of the advisory. "You couldn't drink it, couldn't take a bath in it. You really couldn't do anything with the water so we just stayed out," said Gerald. The couple eventually returned home but Serene Buhrz still relies on bottled water. "She still doesn't trust the water yet," said Gerald.

PG&E stock crashes nearly 50% as utility says it will file for bankruptcy because of wildfires liability - PG&E Corp. stock cratered Monday after the company said it will file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection amid the financial anguish stemming from its part in helping spark a wave of historic wildfires in California.Shares of the company plunged 52 percent to $8.38 per share Monday, one day after the company said Chief Executive Geisha Williams was stepping down. The stock has lost more than 80 percent of its value over the last three months. The market value of the company has declined more than $30 billion to about $4.7 billion from a peak over $36 billion in 2017, a loss equivalent to the size of eBay.  The company provided official 15-day advance notice that it and its wholly owned subsidiary, Pacific Gas and Electric, intend to file petitions to reorganize under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code on or about Jan. 29.The company, California's largest investor-owned utility, has 16 million customers across a 70,000-square-mile service area in Northern and Central California. There was some speculation that PG&E was bluffing in order to force aid from California. CNBC's David Faber said that sources told him that is not the case.PG&E faces at least $30 billion in potential liability costs stemming from wildfires in 2017 and 2018, many allegedly started by the company's equipment, that have led state officials to doubt the safety of the company's electric distribution system. Investigators have already determined PG&E's equipment liable in at least 17 major wildfires in 2017. State investigators are still working to determine if the company's equipment was partly responsible for November's Camp Fire, which killed at least 86 people and destroyed about 14,000 homes, making it the state's deadliest fire.

Trump Administration Sits on Billions in Storm Protection Money - The Trump administration is sitting on billions of dollars intended to help vulnerable cities and states prepare for extreme weather, prompting growing criticism from state officials worried about the next storm season. In February, following a string of severe natural disasters in 2017, Congress provided a record $16 billion for disaster mitigation -- building better defenses against hurricanes, floods and other catastrophes.   Eleven months later, the administration has yet to issue rules telling states how to apply for the money. On Wednesday, Texas, which stands to get more than $4 billion, sent a letter to President Donald Trump’s budget director, Mick Mulvaney, asking him to break the logjam.   “We cannot afford to wait any longer,” wrote George P. Bush, commissioner of the state’s General Land Office, which is overseeing the recovery from the hurricane that slammed into Houston and Southeast Texas in August 2017. “Please approve these rules for publication as soon as possible so we can get started on construction of vital infrastructure projects to protect Texans from the type of damage caused by Hurricane Harvey.” A spokeswoman for the White House’s Office of Management and Budget didn’t respond to a request for comment, nor did a spokesman for the Department of Housing and Urban Development, which administers the disaster funds. The partial federal government shutdown further complicates the process, since staff who must approve the rules that govern the funds are furloughed. But the problem existed before the shutdown, said Brittany Eck, a spokeswoman for the Texas General Land Office. The $16 billion in funds was meant to address a longstanding complaint about U.S. disaster policy: instead of spending money to protect communities before a storm, the government typically releases funding only after damage has happened. Yet a federally-funded study in 2018 found that every $1 spent on mitigation saves $6 on future disaster costs.

In pictures: Cairo turns orange as sandstorm sweeps Egypt – BBC - An orange cloud has swept through Cairo, forcing people to take cover in buildings as strong winds brought thick dust to the Egyptian capital. Several ports were reportedly closed and officials at Cairo airport said the sandstorm had caused flight delays.Egypt's health ministry advised people with respiratory problems to avoid leaving their homes until the storm on Wednesday had passed.

Europe's Most Important River Is Running Dry - The Rhine waterway, critical to moving coal, car parts, food and thousands of other goods, risks becoming impassable because of climate change.After a prolonged summer drought, the bustling traffic at one of the shallowest points on the Rhine ground to a halt for nearly a month late last year, choking off a critical transport artery. The impact damped Germany’s industrial machine, slowing economic growth in the third and fourth quarters. It was the latest sign of how even advanced industrial economies are increasingly fighting the effects of global warming. “You can see the water levels are lower each year,” said Kilps, who added extra flotation equipment to the 150-ton boat during the stoppage to enable it to finally cross the river again. “It’s scary to watch the climate changing.” With its source high in the Swiss Alps, the Rhine snakes 800 miles through the industrial zones of Switzerland, Germany and the Netherlands before emptying into the sea at Rotterdam, Europe’s busiest port. It serves as a key conduit for manufacturers such as Daimler AG, Robert Bosch GmbH and Bayer AG.When low water halted shipping this summer, steelmaker Thyssenkrupp AG was forced to delay shipments to customers like automaker Volkswagen AG as it couldn’t get raw materials to a mill in Duisburg. Constraints on the Rhine cost BASF SE around 250 million euros ($285 million) by pushing the chemical maker to use more expensive transport options. In a recent newspaper interview, BASF Chief Executive Officer Martin Brudermueller called for major infrastructure investments such as locks and dams that can release water to ensure shipping lanes remain open. “We have already seen effects on national economic growth,”

Drought-hit Australia has third-warmest year on record in 2018  (Reuters) - Australia had its third warmest year on record in 2018, a year marked by severe drought in parts of the country and a prolonged bushfire season, the Bureau of Meterology said, with the dry conditions expected to persist in coming months. Maximum temperatures across Australia were the second-warmest on record at 1.55 degrees C (2.8 degrees F) above average, just behind the hottest year in 2013. The average temperature across Australia in 2018 was 1.14 degrees C above the average for 1961 to 1990, making nine of the past 10 years hotter than average, the bureau said in its annual climate statement. Annual rainfall was the seventh lowest on record over the southeastern quarter of the country. "It was a tough year for people dealing with the drought," Bureau senior climatologist Lynette Bettio said in a statement. The bureau sees little change in the near term. "The next three months look like a continuation of the warm and dry conditions that we've seen actually over the last 24 months or so," Karl Braganza, the bureau's head of climate monitoring told reporters. El Nino-like weather conditions that have prevailed in the Pacific Ocean could also suppress rainfall this year, although it was unclear yet how that would develop. El Nino is usually associated with lower than usual rainfall in eastern Australia. For 2018, Australia's rainfall was 11 percent below the average for 1961 to 1990 at 413 millimetres (16.3 inches), which the bureau said was due to natural variability as well as climate change. The warmer temperatures and a windy winter also meant more evaporation, which led to a rapid and intense drying of the landscape, the bureau said.

Record-Breaking Heat Wave Bakes Australia - Australia is sweating through yet another record breaking heat wave, with the past four days among the country's 10 hottest days on record, the Bureau of Meteorology announced Tuesday. The town of Port Augusta in South Australia hit 48.9 degrees Celsius (approximately 120 degrees Fahrenheit) on Tuesday, the highest temperature since record keeping began there in 1962. Meekatharra in Western Australia and Fowlers Gap and White Cliffs in New South Wales all broke their minimum temperature records when the overnight minimum reached 33 degrees Celsius (approximately 91.4 degrees Fahrenheit) on Monday, The Guardian reported.  Western Australia, South Australia, Tasmania, Victoria, New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory could all see maximum temperatures eight to 12 degrees Celsius (approximately 46.4 to 53.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above average by the end of the week, with some areas seeing temperatures as high as 16 degrees Celsius (60.8 degrees Fahrenheit) above average. Parts of South Australia, New South Wales and Victoria could all break January heat records between now and Friday. The high temperatures are beginning to impact the health of humans and wildlife. Sixteen people have arrived at emergency departments in South Australia and seven were admitted. South Australia's government has declared a code red to free up emergency funding to help the homeless. Also in the state, a Red Cross service that makes daily phone calls to vulnerable people during heat waves has been activated through Thursday, The Guardian reported. "Heat is the worst of our natural emergencies with excess hospital presentations, ambulance transfers and even people potentially dying,"  In New South Wales, meanwhile, health officials warned that the high temperatures could lead to higher than normal ozone air pollution, which could have an outsized impact on people with asthma or other respiratory ailments. "Anyone experiencing severe respiratory distress should seek immediate medical help," 

2018 was the warmest year on record for oceans, new study warns - Oceans are warming far more quickly than previously thought, making 2018 the warmest year yet, according to a new study published in the journal Science. A group of international researchers says the findings are dire because the ocean’s temperature is a clear indication of climate change.  “Global warming is actually ocean warming,” lead researcher Lijing Cheng told Global News. “The change in ocean heat content is considered to be one of the best — if not the best — way to measure climate change driven by greenhouse gases emitted by human activities.” Unlike surface temperatures, ocean temperatures are not affected by year-to-year variations caused by climate events like El Niño or volcanic eruptions, the study states. The study found that the world’s oceans are heating up 40 per cent faster, on average, than the United Nations predicted five years ago. Cheng explains that global warming is driven by an increase in greenhouse gases being released into the air, which are in turn absorbed by water. In fact, he says 90 per cent of greenhouse gases are absorbed by oceans. If it wasn’t for the oceans doing all the hard work, it would be much, much hotter on land, the group of researchers explained. Higher water temperatures can result in the death of marine life, higher sea levels and an increased chance of destructive hurricanes and storms, Cheng said. “It has also contributed to increases in rainfall intensity and stronger, longer-lasting storms, such as Harvey in 2017 and Florence in 2018,” according to a statement from the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research. “In turn, declines in ice sheets, glaciers and ice caps, along with declining ocean oxygen levels, and destruction of coral reefs accompany the warming ocean.”

 Warming oceans likely to raise sea levels 30cm by end of century – study - The world’s oceans are warming at a faster rate than previously estimated, new research has found, raising fresh concerns over the rapid progress of climate change. Warming oceans take up more space, a process known as thermal expansion, which the study says is likely to raise sea levels by about 30cm by the end of the century, on top of the rise in sea levels from melting ice and glaciers. Warmer oceans are also a major factor in increasing the severity of storms, hurricanes and extreme rainfall. Oceans store heat so effectively that it would take decades for them to cool down, even in the unlikely scenario that greenhouse gas emissions were halted urgently. The report, published on Thursday in the journal Science, found that the warming of the oceans was accelerating and was matching the predictions of climate change models, which have shown global temperature rises are likely to lead to extreme weather across the world. “While 2018 will be the fourth warmest year on record on the [earth’s] surface, it will most certainly be the warmest year on record in the oceans, as was 2017 and 2016 before that. The global warming signal is a lot easier to detect if it is changing in the oceans than on the surface.” Oceans absorb more than nine-tenths of the excess energy trapped in the atmosphere by greenhouse gases, and play a key role in regulating the world’s climate. But the role of oceans in the global climate system was overlooked for many years, in part because of a lack of data and the difficulty of studying the marine environment. Only in recent years have scientists come to realise the full importance of oceans, which have effectively absorbed much of the impact of climate change in recent decades, but are now understood to be reaching their capacity as a buffer.

Oceans rising: can we save our collapsing coastline? - Summer at Inverloch surf beach is supposed to be about waves, sun and fun. But for locals, the beach is also a cause of increasing angst. Dramatic erosion has seen the foreshore at the local surf lifesaving club recede a remarkable 33 metres since 2012. Twice the club moved its observation tower inland to escape the creeping ocean. Now the tower is on skids so it can be relocated without a rebuild. Nearby, the dunes have eroded to the point that the sea is just metres from the low-lying coast road. Beyond the road and tea trees, are hundreds of houses and increasingly anxious homeowners. While erosion has been unusual at the surf beach, the adjoining beach at the mouth of Andersons Inlet has accreted (advanced) at a similar rate. Locals and scientists are joining forces with local council and the state government to try and understand the much-discussed changes at Inverloch seaside. Are the changes part of a natural cycle of sand moving in and out of Andersons Inlet? Or are residents and summer visitors witnessing sea level rise in action? They are questions being asked all along Victoria’s 2500 kilometre coastline from Portland in the far south-west to Mallacoota in the south-east as local communities and councils grapple with erosion, flooding and storm surges. 

Along the East Coast, rainy days, high tides and sea rise make floods a part of life - Flooding is becoming a way of life along the Mid-Atlantic coast. In Atlantic City, New Jersey, residents along one street deal with ankle-deep flood waters on a rainy day, with even higher floodwaters arriving with every new moon. In southern Virginia Beach, Virginia, a bit of rain and a strong wind from the south is enough to bring water from the Back Bay onto farmland. And in Norfolk’s Hague neighborhood, high tides spill water from the Elizabeth Creek into the streets, making roads impassable, damaging cars and snarling traffic. Flooding has become so common that Norfolk resident Kiquanda Baker says residents will cancel plans if rain is in the forecast. “It's becoming where people have to plan around water,” Baker said. Those in the Chesapeake Bay area say that flooding has become an increasingly persistent problem in the last two decades. Scientists say that things will only get worse, as the area is ground zero for rising seas on the East Coast. Sea levels have risen across the entire coast, but nowhere as high as in the Mid-Atlantic region. And experts say the trend will only accelerate because of climate change, putting coastal residents from North Carolina to New Jersey at increased risk of flooding. From 1900 to 2017, sea levels rose about a foot and a half along the Chesapeake Bay, compared to one foot in New York City and Miami, according to a December 2018 study by researchers at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts.

A $3 billion problem- Miami-Dade’s septic tanks are already failing due to sea rise -- Miami-Dade has tens of thousands of septic tanks, and a new report reveals most are already malfunctioning — the smelly and unhealthy evidence of which often ends up in people’s yards and homes. It’s a billion-dollar problem that climate change is making worse. As sea level rise encroaches on South Florida, the Miami-Dade County study shows that thousands more residents may be at risk — and soon. By 2040, 64 percent of county septic tanks (more than 67,000) could have issues every year, affecting not only the people who rely on them for sewage treatment, but the region’s water supply and the health of anyone who wades through floodwaters. “That’s a huge deal for a developed country in 2019 to have half of the septic tanks not functioning for part of the year,” said Miami Waterkeeper Executive Director Rachel Silverstein. “That is not acceptable.” Septic tanks require a layer of dirt underneath to do the final filtration work and return the liquid waste back to the aquifer. Older rules required one foot of soil, but newer regulations call for double that. In South Florida, there’s not that much dirt between the homes above ground and the water below.  “All those regulations were based on the premise the elevation of groundwater was going to be stable over time, which we now know is not correct,” said Doug Yoder, deputy director of Miami-Dade County’s Water and Sewer Department. “Now we find ourselves in a situation where we know sea level has risen and continues to rise.” 

Plastic Watch: Ocean Cleanup Array to Arrive Today in Hilo for Necessary Repairs - Jerri-lynn Scofield - The Ocean Cleanup’s effort to encircle the Great Pacific Garbage Patch (GPGP) – a major plastic accumulation zone three times the size of France, located in subtropical waters between California and Hawaii – and collect plastic for eventual recycling, has stalled.The Ocean Cleanup Array has suffered damage and thus been towed back to Hawaii for necessary repair, as reported today in the Hawaii Tribune Herald, Malfunctioning ocean cleanup boom to arrive in Hilo today:  State Department of Transportation spokesman Tim Sakahara said Friday the Harbors Division “is in coordination with” The Ocean Cleanup “regarding its damaged equipment used to remove garbage from the sea.”Sakahara confirmed the anticipated arrival today of System 001 and its support crew in Hilo.“The organization will perform damage assessments, which will help determine the length of time the asset will be in Hilo Harbor,” Sakahara said in an email.“Harbor operations will continue as scheduled without impact to other vessels or the general public.” Ocean Cleanup has yet to disclose exactly what went wrong – and to be fair, may not itself yet know what the problem is.

Permafrost is warming around the globe, study shows--that's a problem for climate change - Vast areas of permafrost around the world warmed significantly over the past decade, intensifying concerns about accelerated releases of heat-trapping methane and carbon dioxide as microbes decompose the thawing organic soils. The warming trend is documented in a new study published Wednesday in the journal Nature Communications. Detailed data from a global network of permafrost test sites show that, on average, permafrost regions around the world—in the Arctic, Antarctic and the high mountains—warmed by a half degree Fahrenheit between 2007 and 2016.The most dramatic warming was found in the Siberian Arctic, where temperatures in the deep permafrost increased by 1.6 degrees Fahrenheit.  Along with increased greenhouse gas emissions, the disintegration of permafrost is causing big problems for communities in the Arctic by damaging roads and other infrastructure as the land destabilizes and erodes. The permafrost meltdown also threatens ecosystems with massive discharges of silt and sediments into rivers and coastal areas. The findings, from what the authors describe as the first globally consistent assessment of permafrost temperature change, add to an exanding body of global warming evidence, including studies published in just the past week showing that the world's oceans have been warming at an accelerating rating and Antarctica has been losing six times more ice mass yearly than it was four decades ago. 

Antarctica is losing ice 6 times faster today than in 1980s — Antarctica is melting more than six times faster than it did in the 1980s, a new study shows. Scientists used aerial photographs, satellite measurements and computer models to track how fast the southern-most continent has been melting since 1979 in 176 individual basins. They found the ice loss to be accelerating dramatically — a key indicator of human-caused climate change. Since 2009, Antarctica has lost almost 278 billion tons (252 billion metric tons) of ice per year, the new study found. In the 1980s, it was losing 44 billion tons (40 billion metric tons) a year. The recent melting rate is 15 percent higher than what a study found last year. Eric Rignot, a University of California, Irvine, ice scientist, was the lead author on the new study in Monday’s Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. He said the big difference is that his satellite-based study found East Antarctica, which used to be considered stable, is losing 56 billion tons (51 billion metric tons) of ice a year. Last year’s study, which took several teams’ work into consideration, found little to no loss in East Antarctica recently and gains in the past. Melting in West Antarctica and the Antarctica Peninsula account for about four-fifths of the ice loss. East Antarctica’s melting “increases the risk of multiple meter (more than 10 feet) sea level rise over the next century or so,” Rignot said.

 This Part Of Antarctica Was Not Supposed To Be Shrinking -  When scientists talk about Antarctic melting, they’re usually referring to West Antarctica, where giant coastal glaciers are shedding incredible amounts of water. But across the Transantarctic mountains to the east, there’s a much larger mantle of ice that’s generally thought to be keeping its chill. A new study, however, asserts that East Antarctica is also losing weight at a worrying clip. Research published today in the Proceedings of the National Academies of Sciences points to a steady decline in the amount of ice covering East Antarctica since satellite record-keeping began in 1979. While the study finds mass loss from East Antarctica is still lagging behind its neighbour to the West—the former has recently lost some 50 billion tons of ice per year to the latter’s 160 billion — East Antarctica is still a “major contributor” to Antarctica’s slim-down.  All told, the study estimates East Antarctica has added 4.4 millimetres to Earth’s global sea level since 1979, compared with 6.9 millimetres from the West. Worryingly, East Antarctica holds 52 of the 57 potential feet of sea level rise locked away in Antarctic ice. Close observers of what’s happening to the frozen continent will know that these are somewhat radical glaciological conclusions. In fact, a major analysis published last June — which most of the new study’s authors participated in — concluded that on the whole, East Antarctica hasn’t been losing ice at all. While that paper determined Antarctica has lost about 3 trillion tons of ice since the early 1990s, it didn’t resolve much of a trend for East Antarctica, which the authors concluded might even be gaining mass due to increased snowfall.

Chinese become second largest tourist force in Antarctica - Antarctica received 8,273 Chinese travelers from 2017 to 2018, accounting for 16 percent of the total number of visitors, which is only second to the United States, the International Association of Antarctica Tour Operators (IAATO) reported. The number is nearly 3,000 more than that of the 2016-2017 Antarctic tourism season. Ctrip, a Shanghai-based online travel agency, also noted that the number of Chinese visitors going to Antarctica would probably rise to more than 10,000 during the 2018-2019 season. In addition, Chinese travelers have spent an average of 23 days on their Antarctic tours and the costs ranged from 50,000 yuan (7,396 U.S. dollars) to 110,000 yuan in 2018. The number of Chinese travelers to Antarctica has increased by 100 times since 2008 and it is expected that the demand will continue to grow in the years ahead.

How the fossil fuel industry got the media to think climate change was debatable - Although various business interests began pushing back against environmental action in general in the early 1970s as part of the conservative “war of ideas” launched in response to the social movements of the 1960s, when global warming first broke into the public sphere, it was a bipartisan issue and remained so for years. On the campaign trail in 1988, George H.W. Bush identified as an environmentalist and called for action on global warming, framing it as a technological challenge that American innovation could address. But fossil fuel interests were shifting as the industry and its allies began to push back against empirical evidence of climate change, taking many conservatives along with them. Documents uncovered by journalists and activists over the past decade lay out a clear strategy: First, target media outlets to get them to report more on the “uncertainties” in climate science, and position industry-backed contrarian scientists as expert sources for media. Second, target conservatives with the message that climate change is a liberal hoax, and paint anyone who takes the issue seriously as “out of touch with reality.” In the 1990s, oil companies, fossil fuel industry trade groups and their respective PR firms began positioning contrarian scientists such as Willie Soon, William Happer and David Legates as experts whose opinions on climate change should be considered equal and opposite to that of climate scientists. The Heartland Institute, which hosts an annual International Conference on Climate Change known as the leading climate skeptics conference, for example, routinely calls out media outlets (including The Washington Post) for showing “bias” in covering climate change when they either decline to quote a skeptic or question a skeptic’s credibility.

In Climate Change Fight, Brazil Owes Nothing, Minister Says - Brazil owes nothing in the fight against global climate change and should be paid for its work so far, according to the country’s new environment minister. "Brazil is not a debtor. We’re creditors," he told Bloomberg News at his office in Brasilia referring to the country’s relatively clean energy matrix, reduction of deforestation and reforestation efforts in recent years. "Our part needs to be remunerated, and regarding what we’ve done so far, the question is by how much, when and how?" The $722 million Amazon Fund, which supports preservation and anti-deforestation projects, is financed primarily by Norway and Germany. The Scandinavian country announced in December it would pay $70 million to Brazil for reduced emissions from deforestation in 2017. Brazil President Jair Bolsonaro backtracked on plans to scrap the environment ministry under pressure from the country’s powerful farm lobby that feared repercussions from international consumers concerned with sustainable agriculture. Conflict between producers and environmentalists has been artificially exaggerated, Salles said, and it’s perfectly possible to reconcile economic development with the preservation of the country’s natural resources. "When you have more economic development, you attract more resources. When wealth circulates in the country, then you have more money to care for the environment," he said. As for global concerns over the deforestation of the Amazon rainforest, Salles noted that the bulk of the area belongs to Brazil and those parts not owned by the state have private landowners who must be compensated if they are to leave parts of their property undeveloped. In response to claims that farmers are illegally deforesting the Amazon, Salles said that up to two-thirds takes place in indigenous reserves or conservation areas, both administered by the government. "Who is incompetent, neglected their job? Public institutions," he said.

B.C. Carbon Footprint Grows Despite Environmental Lobby -- The carbon footprint of British Columbia is growing and has been growing for the last eight years despite a strong environmentalist lobby, , the latest provincial government data suggests. The Global and Mail quotes a spokesman for the Ministry of Environment as saying British Columbia has fallen off the rails leading to the achievement of its carbon emission reduction target for 2030. The reason for this failure has, however, nothing to do with the oil industry as such. It’s simply a question of more people driving more cars. “We’re still living in a fossil-fuel-based economy, and we’ve experienced economic and population growth,” the Globe and Mail quoted a Simon Fraser University researcher, Mark Jaccard, as saying. “More people are driving more cars, and unless we make a significant leap towards electric vehicles, these emissions will continue to rise.” British Columbia had a target of cutting carbon emissions by 33 percent from 2007 levels to 2020. However, the new figures reveal the province has only succeeded in cutting emissions by 2.2 percent from 2007 levels, which means the 2020 target will be pretty much unattainable unless a radical change in driving habits takes place. Now, the British Columbia has a new target of reducing emissions by 40 percent from 2007 levels by 2030. CleanBC includes steps to reduce emissions by 75 percent of the target amount by 2030 by encouraging a switch to more electric vehicles, greater use of renewable sources of energy and a pledge that by 2040 all new cars sold in the province will be zero-emission vehicles. B.C.’s shift to cleaner energy has pitted the province against neighbor Alberta, which produces most of Canada’s oil and supplies B.C. with natural gas. British Columbians have been protesting the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion on pollution concern grounds and the government has joined in, stopping the project.

US drilling projects to add 1,000 coal plants' worth of pollution by 2050 - Despite the global call to phase out fossil fuels in an effort to stave off climate change, the US is expanding fossil fuel production.  The US is currently on track to add 1,000 coal plants’ worth of carbon emissions into the atmosphere in the next 30 years, according to a new report. These new reserves are estimated to add 120 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by 2050.“The oil and gas industry is expanding further and faster in the United States than in any other country at precisely the time when we must begin rapidly decarbonizing to prevent runaway climate disaster,” Kelly Trout, a co-author on the study, said in a statement.This amount of fossil fuel production would make it near impossible to keep global temperatures from rising about 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) – the temperature cap agreed to under the 2015 Paris agreement.The findings, published by the nonprofit Oil Change International, are based on industry projections collected from Rystad Energy and compared with climate models from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Of the 120 billion metric tons, 80 billion would come from oil production with 40 billion from natural gas production.

Some states’ emissions would be higher under Trump climate rule, study finds -  Eighteen states and Washington, D.C., would see increased carbon dioxide emissions from power plants under the Trump administration’s proposed climate change rule for power plants, a new study predicted. The increases — all when compared to a future with no climate policies — would be because of a “rebound effect” from the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) rule, in which power plants would become more efficient and cheaper to operate. The study, published Monday in Environmental Research Letters, predicts that the Affordable Clean Energy (ACE) rule proposed last year would decrease carbon dioxide emissions from the power sector on a national scale compared to business as usual, but only “modestly.” The total increase in carbon dioxide emissions nationally would be 8.5 million tons in 2030, the researchers found. The state with the biggest increase would be Maryland, with 8.7 percent growth. Other emissions would increase in certain states as well, the study found. Sulfur dioxide would grow in 19 states, and 20 states would see higher nitrogen oxides emissions. “The EPA’'s proposed ACE rule does little to control carbon dioxide emissions from electric utilities nationally, and could lead to increased emissions of carbon dioxide and other pollutants such as sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides in some states,” Charles Driscoll, a Syracuse University professor of civil and environmental engineering and one of the study’s co-authors, said in a statement.

Why the Green New Deal Is the Stuff of Fantasyland - The Green New Deal would emulate its predecessor’s use of public investment and hiring, improvement of wages, and socioeconomic safety nets to accelerate economic growth and reduce unemployment. That part of the vision should be pretty straightforward. But in asking whether success in reaching those economic goals could also help head off ecological catastrophe, we first need to take into account how the original New Deal worked, both as a civilian project and as it morphed into the war effort of the 1940s.The massive public investment in the civilian economy that began in 1933 carried on through that decade. And the war production and recruitment boom of the early 1940s should be seen as an extension of the New Deal, in part because that turned out to be the spending that finally ended the Depression.The diversion of money and physical resources into military production necessitated the creation of a War Production Board that allocated resources between the military and civilian sectors and limited production of specified civilian goods. With supplies of consumer goods shrinking and demand steady or rising (because thanks to the war, people finally had more money to spend), the government had to resort to price controls and fair-shares rationing. Then, once the war was over, both pent-up demand and civilian production were unleashed. Before long, the economy was growing rapidly. Under the Green New Deal vision, investment in renewable energy and infrastructure production would be the mechanism for revving up the economy. But whatever shape it takes, this new New Deal would be born into a very different world from that of its predecessor—a world that can’t handle a big economic stimulus. If we are to avoid climate catastrophe, we have to simultaneously bring an end to fossil-fuel burning and develop vast renewable energy capacity, both starting right now and both on a crash schedule. That means the everyday economy must find a way to run on much less available energy.

The Green New Deal: How We Will Pay For It Isn’t ‘A Thing’ – And Inflation Isn’t Either --- Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s announcement of an ambitious new Green New Deal Initiative in Congress has brought predictable – and predictably silly – callouts from conservative pundits and scared politicians. ‘How will we pay for it?,’ they ask with pretend-incredulity, and ‘what about debt?’ ‘Won’t we have to raise taxes, and will that not crowd-out the job creators?’ Representative Ocasio-Cortez already has given the best answer possible to such queries, most of which seem to be raised in bad faith. Why is it, she retorts, that these questions arise only in connection with useful ideas, not wasteful ideas? Where were the ‘pay-fors’ for Bush’s $5 trillion wars and tax cuts, or for last year’s $2 trillion tax giveaway to billionaires? Why wasn’t financing those massive throwaways as scary as financing the rescue of our planet and middle class now seems to be to these naysayers? The short answer to ‘how we will pay for’ the Green New Deal is easy. We’ll pay for it just as we pay for all else: Congress will authorize necessary spending, and Treasury will spend. This is how we do it – always has been, always will be. The money that’s spent, for its part, is never ‘raised’ first. To the contrary, federal spending is what brings that money into existence.

 Former Federal Reserve chairs, economists, back carbon tax - Four former Federal Reserve chairs from both parties joined with a group of leading economists in endorsing a plan to tax carbon dioxide emissions and return the funds to taxpayers.  Janet Yellen, Ben Bernanke, Alan Greenspan and Paul Volcker, along with dozens of former chairmen of the Council of Economic Advisers and Nobel Laureate economists, signed on to an opinion piece published in The Wall Street Journal Wednesday evening laying out principles for a carbon “dividend” plan that they would support.  “By correcting a well-known market failure, a carbon tax will send a powerful price signal that harnesses the invisible hand of the marketplace to steer economic actors towards a low-carbon future,” they wrote.  “To maximize the fairness and political viability of a rising carbon tax, all the revenue should be returned directly to U.S. citizens through equal lump-sum rebates,” the piece continued. The tax should increase annually until carbon emissions fall to a desirable level, they said.The piece was organized by the Climate Leadership Council, a group formed in 2017 to push a carbon tax and dividend plan.The plan’s most prominent supporters are former Republican Secretaries of State James Baker and George Shultz. But it also has the backing of big businesses, oil companies and prominent former Republican politicians, among others.The group is trying to get GOP lawmakers onboard with its climate plan. Republicans in recent years have generally opposed proposals to punish carbon emitters, arguing that it would be too costly and hamper economic growth.In a statement to The Hill, Baker said the economists’ opinion piece is a significant step forward for the carbon tax plan. “As this statement by our nation’s leading economists highlights, America can address climate change while reducing regulations, protecting our companies’ international competitiveness and helping the majority of American families get ahead,” said Baker, who served under President Reagan.

‘This is not controversial’: Bipartisan group of economists calls for carbon tax -  Forty-five top economists from across the political spectrum are calling for the United States to put a tax on carbon, saying it is by far the best way for the nation to address climate change.“A carbon tax offers the most cost-effective lever to reduce carbon emissions at the scale and speed that is necessary,” the economists wrote in letter published Wednesday evening in the Wall Street Journal. They called climate change a “serious problem” that needs “immediate national action.”Nearly every Republican and Democratic chair of the Council of Economic Advisers since the 1970s signed the letter, including Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke and Janet L. Yellen, who are also former chairs of the Federal Reserve. Numerous Nobel laureates in economics also added their names.“Among economists, this is not controversial,” said Greg Mankiw, who chaired the Council of Economic Advisers under George W. Bush and signed the letter. “The politics is complicated, the international relations is complicated, but the economics is really simple."The tax would add to the price of any good or service that uses carbon, especially fossil fuels. It means energy bills, gas and flying would cost more, at least at first. But the economists call for the government to return all the revenue raised from the tax directly to U.S. citizens, with a goal of effectively paying people to help address climate change.“There is a substantial rebate. It’s estimated that if we were to start with something like a $40 a ton carbon tax that would amount to $2,000 per family, so it is a very substantial rebate,” said Yellen.  By giving every American a “rebate,” it encourages people to cut back on their own carbon usage because someone can make money if, for example, they receive a $2,000 rebate check and only spend $1,800 on carbon-intensive activities. “The majority of American families, including the most vulnerable, will benefit financially by receiving more in ‘carbon dividends’ than they pay in increased energy prices,” the letter states.

Once derided, ways of adapting to climate change are gaining steam -- From chronically flooded Midwestern towns to fire-charred California suburbs, from Bangladesh’s sodden delta to low island nations facing rising seas, a long-underplayed strategy for cutting risks related to human-driven climate change is coming to the fore—adaptation. Through 30 years of efforts to limit global warming, the dominant goal was cutting emissions of heat-trapping gases, most importantly carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels. Efforts to adapt communities or agriculture to warming and the related rise in seas and other impacts were often seen as a copout.The spotty nature of adaptation efforts so far can be seen in the aftermath of Hurricane Michael—where one reinforced, raised home famously survived, nearly alone, along Mexico Beach, Florida, after the strongest Panhandle hurricane in at least 155 years. In the Camp Fire that devastated Paradise, California, and killed 85 people, a sprinkling of houses built and maintained to withstand embers survived, but—again—were the rare exception. But signs are emerging that a significant shift is under way, dividing the climate challenge into two related, but distinct, priorities: working to curb greenhouse gases to limit odds of worst-case outcomes later this century while boosting resilience to current and anticipated climatic and coastal hazards with just as much fervor. There’s action from the top down, and—perhaps more significant in the long run—from the bottom up.

Suicide With a Silver Bullet -- The Extreme Energy Civilization and all its technology boils down to a gun at the head of the Earth and humanity. Today the cultists promise a silver bullet in the head  Ecological humanity must venture beyond equivocation or compromise in our permanent rejection of the Extreme Energy Civilization, productionism-consumptionism, Mammon, capitalism, corporate rule, technocracy, and the big lie that high-maintenance technology is in any way necessary or can be a “solution” to any of the existential crises of the Earth being compounded by this very civilization. It’s necessary to burn our bridges, make a clean sweep.  Pre-existing obsolete political groupings, including self-alleged “radicals”, usually regress to mainstream technocracy and productionism, especially where it comes to utopian, counterfactual techno-cults. The entire left-right political spectrum is a spectrum of various styles of technocracy, and almost everyone on this spectrum, however far apart they may play at being on that left-right axis, are at the same point where it comes to technocracy, production-consumption and therefore, at least implicitly, corporate rule.

County residents petition PSC for solar project rules — Jefferson County residents concerned about being surrounded by a proposed 2,100-acre solar energy-generating facility have asked the Wisconsin Public Service Commission to adopt regulations for siting large-scale solar projects. The state lacks regulations that would govern property line setbacks for solar panel installations, noise the panel tracking motors make, fencing height and material, loss of property values for non-participating parties, and many other potential impacts, according to a petition filed Thursday with the PSC. Petition signer Sally Williams, of North Side Drive in the Town of Concord, said she is concerned about the prospects of the massive Sinnissippi Solar installation being built under the current regulatory situation. “I’m concerned about the impacts it would have on our area, but especially because there are a number of these facilities being proposed in southern Wisconsin, it’s only common sense to have rules for them,” she said Friday. Legislation has left local government very limited authority over solar farms, but the state hasn’t stepped in to write the governing rules, she said.

Dartmouth to Seek Proposals for Biomass Plant - Dartmouth College officials say a planned $200 million investment in biomass power and hot water heating will cut carbon emissions and help the school reach its green energy goals. The college formally announced plans on Thursday to build the new wood-burning power plant and convert existing steam pipes in more than 110 buildings on campus. Dartmouth currently gets its steam heat and some of its electricity from an oil-burning power plant in the heart of downtown Hanover that was built more than 120 years ago and was converted to oil from coal in 1958. The changes, which would require town site plan approval, are expected to be completed in late 2025 and would improve Dartmouth’s heating efficiency by 20 percent almost immediately, said Executive Vice President Rick Mills, who also mentioned the project in a public town hall forum the day before. “Making those changes would help us both meet our goals for renewability, improve our efficiency and actually put us on a path toward a future where maybe we don’t actually have to burn anything to heat the campus,” Mills told 100 people at the event the Spaulding Auditorium on Wednesday. During the same event, he also unveiled proposals to expand graduate housing to Lebanon, with a potential project near Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center in the works.

Maryland Public Service Commission authorizes utilities to install 5,000 electric vehicle charging stations statewide - Maryland’s utility companies on Monday won state approval to install a network of more than 5,000 electric vehicle charging stations — fewer than they had hoped for, but a step toward the state’s ambitious goal of 300,000 electric vehicles on the streets by 2025.The Maryland Public Service Commission on Monday authorized BGE, Potomac Electric Power Co., Delmarva Power and Potomac Edison Co. to move forward with a modified, five-year pilot program of residential, workplace and public charging stations, paid for mostly by ratepayers.The companies had proposed charging customers between 25 cents and 42 cents more per month to install a $104 million statewide network nearly five times as large, which would have been the country’s biggest outside California. It’s not yet clear how much customers will have to pay in the scaled-back version of the plan.Jason M. Stanek, chairman of the Public Service Commission, called the decision “a significant step toward expanding electric vehicle adoption and reducing our harmful tailpipe emissions.”“Today’s decision not only ensures that charging infrastructure will support Maryland’s transition to electrified transportation, but also maximizes the benefits of smart charging while minimizing cost impacts to ratepayers,” Stanek said in a statement. The commission said it had authorized a smaller number of charging stations “at a reduced cost to lessen exposure by Maryland ratepayers.”

US Electric Grid Hacked- Perpetrators Could Have Shut Down The System - -- Hackers broke into the US electric grid with spearphishing techniques targeting contractors with system access. The Wall Street Journal has a detailed report out regarding a sophisticated, and successful attack by hackers into the US electric grid. The hackers could have temporarily shut off power.  The Journal claims Russia is responsible. I hate such assumptions. In the absence of hard proof, the hack could have come from China, North Korea, Israel, or even the US. Even if Russian hackers did this, there is a difference between "Russian" and "Russia". Please consider America’s Electric Grid Has a Vulnerable Back Door—and Russia Walked Through It. In the summer of 2016, U.S. intelligence officials saw signs of a campaign to hack American utilities, says Jeanette Manfra, assistant secretary of Homeland Security’s cybersecurity and communications program. The tools and tactics suggested the perpetrators were Russian. Intelligence agencies notified Homeland Security, Ms. Manfra says.Mr. Vitello of All-Ways Excavating has no idea how the hackers got into his email account. He doesn’t recall reading CFE’s websites or clicking on tainted email attachments. Nonetheless, the intrusion was part of the Russian campaign, according to the security companies that studied the hack. On March 2, 2017, the attackers used Mr. Vitello’s account to send the mass email to customers, which was intended to herd recipients to a website secretly taken over by the hackers. Once Mr. Vitello realized his email had been hijacked, he tried to warn his contacts not to open any email attachments from him. The hackers blocked the message. Hackers sent bogus emails from the account of Oregon construction contractor Mike Vitello to herd recipients to a website they had secretly taken over, called imageliners.com. Hackers then used the site to seek access to contractors that do business with U.S. power utilities.

Federal work at Superfund sites suspended during shutdown (AP) — The government shutdown has suspended federal cleanups at Superfund sites around the nation and forced the cancellation of public hearings, deepening the mistrust and resentment of surrounding residents who feel people in power long ago abandoned them to live among the toxic residue of the country’s factories and mines. “We are already hurting, and it’s just adding more fuel to the fire,” says 40-year-old Keisha Brown. Her home is in a community nestled among plants that turn coal into carbon-rich fuel and other factories on Birmingham’s north side. The mostly African-American community has been forced to cope with high levels of arsenic, lead and other contaminants in the soil that the Environmental Protection Agency has been scraping up and carting away, house by house. As President Donald Trump and Congress battle over Trump’s demand for a wall on the southern U.S. border, the 3-week-old partial government shutdown has stopped federal work on Superfund sites except for cases where the administration deems “there is an imminent threat to the safety of human life or to the protection of property.” EPA’s shutdown plans said the agency would evaluate about 800 Superfund sites to see how many could pose an immediate threat. As an example of that kind of threat, it cited an acid leak from a mine that could threaten the public water supply. That’s the hazard at Northern California’s Iron Mountain mine, where EPA workers help prevent an unending flow of lethally acidic runoff off the Superfund site from spilling into rivers downstream. 

‘Toxic History’: Washington State Prepares to Sue US Navy Over Hazardous Dumping – Washington state Attorney General Bob Ferguson warned Thursday that he is preparing to join a pending lawsuit against the US Navy for knowingly dumping toxic metals directly into waters around the state, despite having been urged by the EPA to find another disposal method. The lawsuit cited by Ferguson was initially filed in June 2017 by the Suquamish Tribe and nonprofit organizations Puget Soundkeeper and the Washington Environmental Council. The suit alleges that the US Navy committed multiple violations of the Clean Water Act by its decision to release toxic substances into the Sinclair Inlet, which flows into the Puget Sound, and failed to obtain the proper permits when cleaning a decommissioned aircraft carrier, the USS Independence.Ferguson told the Seattle Times that his office decided to join the lawsuit after reviewing a report in October 2018 that revealed what toxic chemicals were in the materials that had been scraped off the Independence in January 2017. Ferguson's letter indicates that "approximately fifty dump truck loads of solid waste" were dumped into the waters.  Nuclear Waste Shipments Expose Populations to Toxic Radiation   Those chemicals included zinc, copper, cadmium, arsenic, chromium, various other metals and polychlorinated biphenyls. "As a result, the [Environmental Protection Agency] listed the Puget Sound Naval Shipyard Complex as a Superfund site under the Comprehensive Environmental Response Compensation and Liability Act, and the federal government has spent millions of dollars remediating the sediments at the site," the AG's notice explains.

EPA criminal action against polluters hits 30-year low (AP) — The Environmental Protection Agency hit a 30-year low in 2018 in the number of pollution cases it referred for criminal prosecution, Justice Department data show. EPA said in a statement that it is directing “its resources to the most significant and impactful cases.” But the 166 cases referred for prosecution in the last fiscal year is the lowest number since 1988, when Ronald Reagan was president and 151 cases were referred, according to Justice Department data obtained by the nonprofit Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility advocacy group and released Tuesday. “You don’t get closer to the core of EPA’s mission than enforcing the law,” Jeff Ruch, PEER’s executive director, told The Associated Press. “We’re reaching levels where the enforcement program is lacking a pulse.” EPA efforts to prosecute polluters reached 592 criminal referrals under President Bill Clinton in 1998. Criminal referrals have been on a downward trajectory since then, and have fallen by more than one-fourth since fiscal year 2016, the last of the Obama administration. A supporter of deregulation, President Donald Trump as a candidate called for doing away with all but “little tidbits” of the federal environmental agency. Asked for comment, EPA spokesman John Konkus pointed to the civil settlement of about $800 million with Fiat Chrysler over claims the automaker rigged its diesel-powered Ram and Jeep vehicles to cheat on emissions tests. EPA referrals resulted in 62 federal convictions in fiscal year 2018, the fewest since 1995. 

Utilities admit to leaking toxic chemicals into groundwater, must now clean it up - Utilities across the country — including in Indiana — admitted late last year that they violated state and federal pollution standards by leaking dangerous levels of toxic chemicals from their coal ash ponds into nearby groundwater. The admissions are expected to lead to the eventual clean-up of toxic sites around the nation, although the Donald Trump administration has extended the clean-up timeline, allowing the pits to keep spewing dangerous chemicals for nearly two more years.In Indiana, which leads the nation in number of coal ash ponds, that news comes as a beacon to those who live around the sites of current and former coal-fired power plants. "The trigger has been pulled for mandatory clean-up," said Lisa Evans, senior counsel at Earthjustice, an nonprofit environmental law group. "It is not shovels in the ground yet, but it is a good step to reduce the risk in neighboring communities."   Numerous utilities have disclosed that toxic waste at more than 65 power plants in more than 20 states have leaked harmful chemicals. In Indiana, two utilities — Duke Energy and Northern Indiana Public Service Company — have polluted in excess of standards at five different power plants. Still, the majority of plants in Indiana have not yet posted the notifications that would trigger clean-up, according to Evans. She expects more such disclosures in the spring from the other major utilities, including Indianapolis Power & Light, Vectren Energy, and Indiana Michigan Power.  Indiana is home to roughly 85 coal ash ponds storing more than 60 million cubic yards of coal ash.

Kingston coal ash spill: Judge orders TVA contractor to negotiate with sickened workers- A federal judge is ordering a TVA contractor accused in the nation’s first and largest case of mass poisoning by coal ash to sit down at the bargaining table with sickened workers. Chief U.S. District Judge Tom Varlan on Friday ordered Jacobs Engineering into mediation in a toxic tort lawsuit filed on behalf of the hundreds of blue-collar laborers who were sickened — some fatally — after unprotected long-term exposure to the 7.3 million tons of coal ash that spilled from a dike at the TVA Kingston Fossil Plant in Roane County a decade ago. TVA put Jacobs — a global contractor with a long history of lawsuits and criminal charges involving worker safety violations, tampering with safety testing and deceit — in charge of cleaning up the tons of toxic sludge that smothered 300 acres in the Swan Pond community and keeping workers safe.A decade later, more than 30 workers, including at least two TVA employees, are dead and more than 300 are dying. An investigation by USA TODAY NETWORK - Tennessee and testimony in the first phase of the toxic tort lawsuit revealed Jacobs told workers coal ash – laden with concentrated forms of 26 dangerous metals and toxins including arsenic and radium – was safe enough to eat, denied them protective gear and threatened to lay them off if they persisted in complaints.  A jury in November ruled Jacobs violated its contract with TVA, breached its duty to protect the workers and, as a result, caused a mass poisoning by coal ash of an entire clean-up work force. That verdict did not net the workers’ medical testing and treatment, though, and instead is the first phase in what could be a legal fight that lasts years.

Sixteen coal ash pits contaminating Texas groundwater -report (Reuters) - Sixteen coal ash pits in Texas are leaking contaminants into groundwater, including arsenic, boron, cobalt and lithium, according to a report released on Thursday by the Environmental Integrity Project (EIP).  Coal ash is the residue left after coal has been burned to generate power, and can include sludge from plant exhaust stacks. Coal ash is placed in pits or ponds next to coal power plants. The report from the national environmental group also said a federal rule governing coal pits would not prevent groundwater contamination. “A history of weak regulatory oversight has led to this problem, and only a stronger regulatory framework can fix it,” the report said. “Unfortunately, neither the federal Coal Ash Rule nor Texas’s proposed coal ash program rise to that challenge.” The pollutants leaking into groundwater from coal ash pits can potentially can cause cancer and damage the human brain, heart and lungs, the EIP report said. U.S. President Donald Trump has pushed for looser regulations for coal plants as part of a campaign pledge to boost coal production. A 2016 federal law allows states to develop their own coal ash regulations. The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) issued a draft coal ash program in August. TCEQ spokeswoman Andrea Morrow said on Thursday the agency does not comment on reports from other organizations.

All Coal-Fired Power Plants in Texas Found Leaking Toxins Into Groundwater --Power plants across Texas are leaching toxins into groundwater, according to new research. A report released this week from the Environmental Integrity Project found that all of the state's 16 coal-fired power plants are leaching contaminants from coal ash into the ground, and almost none of the plants are properly lining their pits to prevent leakage."We found contamination everywhere we looked, poisoning groundwater aquifers and recreational fishing spots across the state," EIP attorney and report co-author Abel Russ told the Texas Tribune. "This confirms that dumping large volumes of toxic waste in poorly-lined pits is a terrible idea."As reported by the Texas Observer:  "While power plants' propensity to foul nearby air is well-documented, the danger of coal ash dumping has seen much less play in the news media....Meanwhile, the Trump administration has loosened coal ash dumping rules, relaxing pollution thresholds for certain contaminants and allowing states to waive some groundwater monitoring requirements. The action fits within the larger trend of Trump and U.S. Secretary of Energy Rick Perry trying their damndest to prop up coal despite it being a wildly inefficient vehicle for energy generation. At the state level, the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) proposed in August a "deeply flawed" plan to regulate coal ash disposal, the report says. The TCEQ plan was later withdrawn.Representatives from TCEQ did not respond to a request for comment. Many of the plants identified in the report are also major air polluters."

Coal Ash Is Contaminating Groundwater in at least 22 States, Utility Reports Show -- The clearest picture yet of coal ash contamination in the United States is emerging, with utilities reporting serious groundwater contamination in at least 22 states. At dozens of power plants across the country, including many in the Southeast, utilities have found coal-ash pollution severe enough to force them to propose cleanup plans. Those plans will likely become the next front in a decades-long battle over how to manage one of the nation's largest industrial waste streams—one tainted by toxic heavy metals. But as widespread as the contamination appears to be, environmental advocates are finding a measure of hope, even as the Trump administration pushes to roll back federal rules for managing and cleaning up contamination from the billions of tons of coal-burning wastes that have piled up across the country. All power plants in South Carolina, for example, are removing the ash from their unlined ponds to prevent them from leaking pollution into nearby waterways. The governor of Virginia this month called for the complete removal of coal ash ponds within the Chesapeake Bay watershed. And environmental advocates have won rulings in state and federal courts, keeping the pressure on utilities to take action to protect human health and the environment. "But even if the Trump administration moves in to sweep away cleanup requirements, we now know the extent of the groundwater contamination, and it will be hard for them to leave communities with contaminated groundwater," she said. (A move by the Trump administration to relax the rules is being challenged.)

Health of Ohio’s coal-mine cleanup fund raising concerns - The health of the state’s reclamation fund used to clean up abandoned coal-mining sites in Ohio has been called into question as the coal industry struggles, mining less coal and funneling fewer dollars into the fund. As of Jan. 11, the fund balance was more than $22 million. At a state-reclamation forfeiture fund advisory board meeting Thursday in Pickerington, officials estimated that the fund balance will be about $20 million by the end of the year, as cleanup continues at a mining site forfeited by Valley Mining in Stark County. “I think there’s a concern. I’m aware of where the fund is at and where the fund should be,” Lanny Erdos, chief of Ohio’s Division of Mineral Resources Management, told The Dispatch after the meeting. “We’re doing all we can to get to that point.” A new actuarial report that will examine the fund’s health is due out later this year. Preliminary figures crunched by Pinnacle Actuarial Resources Inc. will be discussed at the board’s next meeting March 13. A 2017 actuarial report estimated that Ohio’s fund needed $25.1 million to cover long-term exposure to bond-forfeiture liability and an additional $25.7 million to cover a shock-loss scenario in which an average-size coal-company permit holder would walk away from a mining site without performing reclamation. Since the last report two years ago, former Gov. John Kasich’s administration raided the reclamation fund of $5 million in 2017 to help balance the state budget. That money was never returned even though the state has $2.7 billion sitting in a rainy-day fund. After the Kasich administration’s transfer, the fund never really recovered. “The new administration is aware of it,” said Michael Sliva, who chairs the board. “They seem receptive to discussions.”

Intrigue continues around plans for shuttered Chicago coal plant site - More than six years after the celebrated closure of the Fisk coal plant in Chicago, residents are unhappy with plans for the site that include a logistics hub and the possibility of diesel-fired peaker plants continuing to operate there. NRG Energy, which acquired the site from previous owner Midwest Generation after the plant closed, has sold it to a real estate company specializing in logistics, the office of local alderman Danny Solis told the media outlet Block Club Chicago. The company has an agreement with Hilco Redevelopment Partners to “explore the potential for redevelopment of the Fisk site,” NRG spokesman David Knox told the Energy News Network, and he said the peakers could continue to operate even if the site is redeveloped. Hilco last year purchased the site of the other shuttered Chicago coal plant, Crawford, in the nearby Little Village neighborhood. Plans are moving forward for a 1 million-square-foot warehouse and distribution center there, and the Chicago City Council is considering tax incentives for the project. Locals have stridently opposed the idea because of fears of diesel pollution, which is linked to higher rates of cancer, respiratory disease and other illnesses.

Vermont Yankee sale to decommissioning firm complete - After more than two years of debate, deliberation and negotiation, Vermont Yankee has a new owner. Entergy on Friday announced that it had completed the sale of the idled Vernon nuclear plant to NorthStar, a New York-based cleanup company that will undertake an accelerated decommissioning project. The culmination of the NorthStar deal ends Entergy’s tumultuous, 16-and-a-half-year run as owner and operator of Vermont Yankee. And it clears the way for an unprecedented project that could leave most of the site cleared and restored as early as 2026, and no later than 2030.  In a press release, Entergy said the sale “is a major step toward the safe, timely and efficient decommissioning of Vermont Yankee and is a positive outcome for the town of Vernon, Windham County, the state of Vermont and other stakeholders.” Entergy received state approval to purchase Vermont Yankee in June 2002 and stopped producing power in Vernon at the end of 2014. The company’s tenure in Vermont was marked by high-profile struggles with the state and with anti-nuclear activists, as well as a tritium leak scandal.

Regulators To Allow Seabrook Nuclear Plant To Run Through 2050 -- Seabrook Nuclear Power Plant is expected to get approval to continue operating through 2050 by the end of this month, after regulators finished determining the facility is safe to remain open. Activists concerned about the facility’s safety say the decision is premature – but officials say those activists could still prompt changes in Seabrook’s license through a hearing this summer. Seabrook’s reactor is the largest single electric generating unit in New England. Located on the Seacoast close to the Massachusetts border, the plant is currently licensed to run through 2030. It’s the only nuclear station in the country known to be experiencing a chemical reaction that’s causing cracks to spread in its concrete foundations. The cracks were discovered nearly a decade ago – around the same time the plant’s owner, Florida-based NextEra, first asked the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for a 20-year license extension. NRC spokesman Neil Sheehan says after years of exhaustive review, officials have ruled the concrete issue is under control and the plant is running safely. “The NRC staff believes, at this point, there’s no impediment to issuing the license amendment and license renewal,” he says. Sheehan says the NRC expects to approve that license amendment, which focuses on monitoring and management plans for the cracks, around Jan. 22 – and the license renewal around Jan. 30. He says it would allow NextEra to immediately begin implementing its plans to address the cracks, under ongoing government oversight. The license extension itself wouldn’t begin until 2030.

Former top regulator now says nuclear power 'hazardous' -  In explosive new book, calls for U.S. reactors to be shut down before 'catastrophe'.-- The former top regulator of nuclear power in America, who in the midst of an international crisis promoted U.S. nuclear power plants as operating "safely and securely," now says in an explosive new book that the United States should abandon the "failed technology" altogether. "I now believe that nuclear power is more hazardous than it is worth," Greg Jaczko writes in his debut book, "Confessions of a Rogue Nuclear Regulator," which is based on his three years as chairman of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission under President Barack Obama. "Because the industry relies too much on controlling its own regulation, the continued use of nuclear power will lead to catastrophe in this country or somewhere else in the world. This is a truth we all must confront," Jaczko wrote. The book is published by Simon & Schuster and will be released on Jan. 15; Hearst Television National Investigative Unit obtained an advanced copy. In his first television interview about the 196-page book, Jaczko said he isn't trying to scare people with his warnings about the dangers of the industry he used to oversee. "I'm just trying to be honest," he said. "I went rogue by being honest." When asked if the 59 commercial nuclear sites in the United States and their 98 reactors are as safe as they could be, Jaczko replied, "No, I don't think they are." Jaczko led the NRC during the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan in 2011 and the American response to evaluate the vulnerability of reactors in the U.S.

Activists want details on inquiry into ex-nuke weapons plant — Activists asked a U.S. judge Thursday to make documents public from a 27-year-old criminal investigation into a former nuclear weapons plant outside Denver with a history of fires, leaks and spills. The activists said the documents could show whether the federal government did enough to clean up the site before turning part of it into a wildlife refuge and opening it to the public. The government built plutonium triggers at the Rocky Flats plant from 1952 to 1989. It was shut down after a two-year grand jury investigation into environmental violations. After the investigation, Rockwell International, the contractor that operated the plant, pleaded guilty in 1992 to criminal charges that included mishandling chemical and radioactive material. The company was fined $18.5 million. The documents from the grand jury investigation are still sealed. Seven groups representing environmentalists, former nuclear workers, nearby residents and public health advocates filed a motion in federal court Thursday asking for the information to be made public.   Pat Mellen, an attorney representing the activist groups, said the documents could show whether the government tracked down and cleaned up all the contamination. Mellen said the grand jury subpoenaed documents from the plant that would have shown where plutonium and other hazardous wastes were disposed of, spilled or buried. Comparing those documents to the cleanup would show whether all the known contamination sites were remediated, she said. “Our concern here is that the locations that were cleaned up were complete,”  “We want to audit the cleanup.” The plutonium processing area was declared a Superfund site and underwent a $7 billion cleanup. It remains off-limits to the public. 

Kabul’s air pollution kills more people than war (video) Kabul is one of the most polluted cities in the world. Afghanistan's Health Ministry says more than 3,000 people die every year because of pollution. Al Jazeera's Mohamad ElBardicy reports on what’s being done to combat the problem.

Utica Shale well activity as of Jan. 12 - Seven horizontal permits were issued during the week that ended Jan. 12, and 18 rigs were operating in the Utica Shale.

• DRILLED: 235 (231 as of last week)
• DRILLING: 142 (143)
• PERMITTED: 471 (470)
• PRODUCING: 2,128 (2,124)
• TOTAL: 2,976 (2,968)

TOP 10 COUNTIES BY NUMBER OF PERMITS:

• 1. BELMONT: 608 (602 as of last week)
• 2. CARROLL: 525 (525)
• 3. HARRISON: 443 (442)
• 4. MONROE: 421 (421)
• 5. GUERNSEY: 251 (251)
• 6. NOBLE: 223 (223)
• 7. JEFFERSON: 210 (209)
• 8. COLUMBIANA: 159 (159)
• 9. MAHONING: 30 (30)
• 10. WASHINGTON: 22 (22)
• 14. STARK: 13 (13)

Seven Permits Issued in Ohio's Utica – The Ohio Department of Natural Resources reports that it awarded seven new permits for horizontal oil and gas wells in the Utica shale region last week. According to ODNR, six permits were issued to Rice Drilling LLC for wells in Belmont County in the southeastern portion of the state. A single permit was awarded to Gulfport Energy Corp. for a new well in Harrison County. As of Jan. 12, ODNR has issued 2,976 permits across the Utica. The agency reports that 2,505 of these wells are drilled and 2,128 were in production. ODNR reported that there were 18 rigs operating in the Utica as of Jan. 12. There were no new permits issued in the northern tier of Ohio’s Utica, which includes Mahoning, Columbiana and Trumbull counties. Nor were there new Utica permits awarded in neighboring Lawrence and Mercer counties in western Pennsylvania, according to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection.

Ohio's Utica Shale Country May See a Boost from Chesapeake Energy Leaving the Play - WKSU News -- There is a new leading player in the development of Ohio’s oil and natural gas drilling industry. ENCINO Energy just bought all of the Utica shale holdings of Chesapeake Energy and says it plans to invest in those, and to keep the former Chesapeake Utica headquarters in Louisville in Stark County. ENCINO was formed a year ago by long-time Texas-based energy executives and the Canadian Pension Plan Investment Board. It’s paying $2 billion dollars for nearly one million acres of drilling rights held byChesapeake and the five story headquarters in Louisville.   Stark Development Board President Ray Hexamer says ENCINO’s entry into the Utica is encouraging for both Louisville and the region.  “For a community, you’d rather be someone’s first and biggest asset than one of five hundred assets.  And they’re all very skilled in this industry so if they paid the amount money that they did, they see the potential.” Chesapeake sold its Utica assets to help pay down debt it took on while expanding in shale plays across the country.

Ohio Fracking Laws Contested in Sixth Circuit - – Several Ohio landowners argued before a Sixth Circuit panel Thursday that a mining company’s fracking operation under their property is unconstitutional, seeking to revive federal claims against the company and the Buckeye State.  Six people and a trust that collectively own 127 acres in Harrison County, Ohio, filed a federal lawsuit against Chesapeake Exploration LLC and the state’s Division of Oil and Gas Resources Management after Chesapeake was issued a permit to drill three wells beneath the surface of the property. At the time the complaint was filed in February 2018, Chesapeake had drilled one of the wells and pumped “more than 8 million gallons of water, sand and chemicals” into the land as part of its hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, operation. Fracking involves the high-pressure injection of millions of gallons of chemical-laden water deep underground to crack rock and release oil and gas.  The owners claimed the operation constituted an unlawful taking under the 14^th Amendment, and also argued the Ohio law allowing for subsurface mining is unconstitutional.   U.S. District Judge Patricia Gaughan disagreed, however, and granted both the mining company and the state’s motions to dismiss last June.  “Plaintiffs,” she wrote, “do not allege that a well will be erected on their property or that the surface of their property will be impacted in any way by the drilling. Plaintiffs also do not allege any current surface damage.”The judge continued, “Rather, plaintiffs allege that Chesapeake will enter beneath the land, inject water, sand and chemicals beneath the land, and remove oil, gas, and natural gas liquids from beneath the land, pursuant to the unitization procedure set forth under Ohio law.” (Emphasis in original.)Judge Gaughan also determined that Chesapeake’s actions regarding the mining operation, including applying for the permit and drilling the first well, did not render it a state actor for the purposes of the landowners’ civil rights claim. Attorney Phillip Campanella argued on behalf of the landowners Thursday in the Sixth Circuit, saying his clients have “a right to exclude the invasion of the subsurface” portion of their property.

 Taking on Climate Change and Petrochemicals in the Ohio River Valley - When it comes to the fossil fuel industry, we've all heard the promises before: new jobs, economic growth and happier communities, all thanks to their generosity and entrepreneurial spirit.   But what they always fail to mention is that their business damages ecosystems, drives climate change, and fills our air and water with dangerous, carcinogenic chemicals.  We know this because we've seen the same tragic story again and again: fossil fuels and petrochemicals causing disastrous health outcomes for normal Americans just trying to live their lives. In particular, in southern Louisiana along an 85-mile corridor of the Mississippi River between Baton Rouge and New Orleans, petrochemical plants are causing some of the nation's highest cancer rates. There are important lessons to be learned from this area, infamously dubbed "Cancer Alley." Especially as the fossil fuel industry plans to invest more than $200 billion in new petrochemical facilities across the U.S. in the coming years.  These plants separate ethane from natural gas through the heat and pressure process described above. Plants then use it to create ethylene, one of the major building blocks used in making plastics. Not only does this process involve burning fossil fuels, but the end result is another kind of pollution. Increasing investment in these facilities will not only deepen our reliance on fossil fuels; it'll also increase the amount of plastics that end up in our oceans—at a time when we should instead be concentrating on alternatives like clean energy. Yet, the petrochemical and fossil fuel industries keep finding ways to lock us into their products and business.  We already know the threats to regional watersheds from hydraulic fracturing (fracking), including soil erosion, groundwater pollution, and drinking water contamination. But we should also recognize that the danger doesn't stop once natural gas leaves the ground. For example, multiple studies have shown that petrochemical facilities that use natural gas expose employees—as well as surrounding communities—to multiple toxins that are incredibly damaging to their health.  The results are clear. Research shows that people living and working in and near petrochemical facilities can have higher rates of cancer, diabetes, various skin conditions, respiratory problems and other life-altering diseases. In some cases, rates of toxic chemicals and carcinogens found among people living by plants have been as high as three times the national average.

Berrien County officials investigating oil spill – Berrien County officials are attempting to get to the bottom of an oil spill in the county. The oil spill was discovered on January 2nd when investigating an unrelated obstruction in a drain. Berrien County Resident Prince Prabhu says he hopes the investigation uncovers why this spill happened. “First figure out why it happened and take precautions to not let it happen again,” Prabhu said. During the discovery and clean-up officials estimate 400 to 500 gallons of oil was spilled. “As soon as we do more investigating hopefully we will learn the source of where this oil is coming from,” Berrien County Sheriff Paul Bailey said. Officials say the oil had a red tint which indicates it could be on a few types of oil such as heating oil. Berrien County Drain Commissioner Christopher Quattrin said his office worked with Michigan’s Department of Environmental Quality during and after the clean-up. The clean-up is estimated to cost approximately $30,000, and officials say they are looking into “revenue streams” so the tax payers won’t be charged for the clean-up. The Berrien County Sheriff’s Department’s investigation is already underway and they hope to have answers as to how the spill happened in the upcoming months. 

Protesters gather at National Fuel headquarters — Almost 100 people came out to the National Fuel headquarters in Williamsville on Saturday to protest the Northern Access Pipeline Project. Members of the Seneca Nation, and representatives from groups such as Earthworks, spent hours marching around the building to bring awareness to the concerns they have about the pipeline. One of the people protesting was Theresa Schueckler. Schueckler has been involved in litigation with National Fuel over her 200-acre property in Allegheny County. the proposed pipeline would run though her land. In December a judge ruled in her favor stating that National Fuel could not use eminent domain as a means to obtain the land for the building of the pipeline. "We have on our 200 acres we have spent our life trying to preserve clean air and clean water," Schueckler said. Schueckler was confident that she no longer needed to worry about her land. Her opinion changed after a different ruling by an Erie County judge in a similar case. Members of the Seneca Nation also participated. Their main concern is the the proposed pipeline's route through the Cattauragus Creek. John Seneca lives near the water and says he would rather the company found an alternative to fossil fuels rather than using the pipeline to transport more of them. 

Legislators, groups concerned about pipeline project planned for Agawam -- Hundreds of individuals and 40 organizations — including newly elected Sen. Jo Comerford, D-Northampton, Rep. Natalie Blais, D-Sunderland, and two newly elected Hampshire County state legislators, along with the Ashfield Affinities Group, Solar Store of Greenfield and StopNED (Northeast Energy Direct) — have signed on to comments submitted to federal regulators as part of an environmental assessment of Tennessee Gas Pipeline Co.’s proposed 261 Upgrade Projects planned for Agawam. The upgrades are part of the Columbia Gas “Reliability Plan,” which includes a new pipeline across West Springfield and other expansions in its Greater Springfield service area. The projects, for which TGP applied last October, would create 72,400 dekatherms per day of additional capacity on the company’s existing system by installing 2.1 miles of 12-inch diameter loop running parallel and adjacent to the pipeline that’s there, according to the company. It also involves removing an inactive 6-inch diameter pipeline and replacing it with 12-inch diameter pipeline loop in some locations, while also replacing two turbine compressors with a single cleaner-burning compressor, and installing of auxiliary facilities at the existing compressor station. TGP had proposed the Northeast Energy Direct Pipeline through Franklin County, but that was halted in 2016 because of insufficient demand. The company hopes to begin construction on the Agawam project in March 2020 and have them operational that November. 

Baker approves air permits for natural gas project in Weymouth - In a decision blasted by South Shore lawmakers as reckless, irresponsible, and dangerous, Governor Charlie Baker’s administration on Friday approved air quality permits for a natural gas compressor station in Weymouth, with state environmental regulators concluding the Enbridge Energy project conforms with air pollution regulations. The project will support natural gas capacity upgrades and the expansion of a gas transmission pipeline system that runs from Mahwah, N.J., to Beverly, for transportation and deliveries on the Maritimes & Northeast Pipeline system. Collectively, it’s referred to as the Atlantic Bridge Project, which includes the siting of the compressor station, and which received federal approval in January 2017. “This reckless and irresponsible decision is harmful to the health, safety and wellbeing of residents of Weymouth and the entire South Shore,” Representative James Murphy, Democrat of Weymouth, said in a statement released after state energy officials disclosed their decision just before 5 p.m. Friday.

Tioga County fracking group sues DEC for answer on propane alternative - A Tioga County landowners group is pressing ahead with its fight to maneuver around New York's hydrofracking ban.Fed up with state Department of Environmental Conservation delays on its application to drill for natural gas with propane instead of water, the group has sued the agency in State Supreme Court in Albany asking for a final determination on the proposal."Having no response from the DEC for over eight months, Tioga Energy Partners has had enough," said James Leonard, president of the New York chapter of the National Association of Royalty Owners.Tioga Energy Partners have been trying to push the alternative natural gas drilling method since 2015, months after the state banned hydrofracking, citing health and environmental concerns.Leonard said the DEC has been purposely dragging its feet on the the group's liquefied propane fracking proposal, and the lawsuit was the only option to prompt a final determination from the state. In almost a year, Leonard said, the "DEC has not provided any substantive response" to its application to drill for natural gas using liquefied propane. The DEC has been unresponsive in Tioga Energy Partner's attempt to get updates on the application review, he alleged.

New Jersey AG appeals PennEast pipeline eminent domain ruling -- The New Jersey attorney general is taking further steps to try to block a controversial natural gas pipeline. The state filed an appeal Friday challenging a federal judge's December ruling that PennEast could begin taking property by eminent domain. State Attorney General Gurbir Grewal initially challenged the ruling in early January with a motion for reconsideration and motion for stay. Grewal argues the state has "sovereign immunity" from eminent domain under the 11th Amendment. He has requested a hearing on the matter for later this month. Homeowners who live in areas where the $1.1 billion pipeline would go have opposed the project. PennEast says the pipeline will save natural gas consumers millions of dollars per year. The company still needs to secure various permits to move forward with the project. 

Mariner East pipelines can keep flowing as PUC rejects shutdown request - The Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission on Thursday upheld a judge’s decision not to block operations of the controversial Mariner East pipelines after southeastern Pennsylvania residents contended they were unsafe. Administrative Law Judge Elizabeth Barnes denied an emergency request by seven Delaware and Chester county residents on Dec. 11 to block the startup of Sunoco Pipeline’s Mariner East 2 pipelines and to shut down the older Mariner East 1. The five-member Public Utility Commission unanimously affirmed the judge’s ruling. Commissioner David Sweet called it “thorough and well-reasoned” and said there was not sufficient evidence to reverse it. Mariner East 2 started service on Dec. 29. Sunoco used a 12-inch, 1930s-era pipeline that previously carried petroleum products as a link around unfinished sections of the new pipeline where regulators shut down construction after the project caused sinkholes and disrupted drinking water supplies. The $5 billion cross-state pipeline project is designed to move natural gas liquids, like ethane, propane and butane, from southwestern Pennsylvania’s shale gas wells to the Marcus Hook industrial complex and port near Philadelphia. The residents argued that the new and existing pipelines carrying highly volatile liquids through densely populated southeastern Pennsylvania are inherently dangerous, too shallow and close to homes, and that the company has not developed proper emergency management plans in case of a failure.

More, deeper wells planned for existing Marcellus site in Washington Township - CNX has applied to the state Department of Environmental Protection for a permit to drill four new wells to tap natural gas from Utica shale at an existing Marcellus shale well pad in Washington Township. The site is known as the Mamont South 1 Pad. It’s located near Evans Road, off of Route 286, in Washington Township on property owned by the Municipal Authority of Westmoreland County. The twist for the new application is that CNX is tapping both shale formations from the same well pad, which first was developed with five wells for Marcellus shale in 2014, according to Brian D. Aiello, a CNX spokesman. CNX applied to DEP in December to drill four new Utica shale wells on the same pad, he said. It’s unclear if any approval is needed by Washington Township since the proposed wells are on approved pad sites, according to township Supervisor Joseph Olszewski. Evans Road already is bonded by CNX and is in good condition, he said. “CNX can use it for overweight equipment and, if there is damage, we will assess any damages and they will pay for any damages,” Olszewski. CNX has been maintaining that section of road and it’s “been working out well,” he said. The Utica shale gas reserves reside deeper than Marcellus and, in Pennsylvania, sometimes they overlap, such as at the Mamont site in Washington Township. “We believe that area of Westmoreland County has significant potential in terms of what we call our “stacked pay” strategy, basically drilling multiple shale plays from the same pad,” Aiello said. “Stacked pay has many benefits including a reduced environmental footprint and improved operational efficiencies,” Aiello said. Other operators see value in such a strategy as well, according to the Marcellus Shale Coalition.

W.Va. Supreme Court To Hear Natural Gas Nuisance Case - The West Virginia Supreme Court is scheduled to hear arguments in an appeals case Tuesday that could have major implications for residents living near oil and gas operations.A group of Harrison County landowners who live near oil and gas sites operated by natural gas companies Antero Resources and Hall Drilling are asking the Supreme Court to require the companies to alter how they drill. They want relief from what they describe as near-constant loud noises, truck traffic and odors.  The companies argue state law allows them to do whatever is "reasonably necessary" to extract mineral resources when they own or lease natural gas rights and requiring additional drilling stipulations would be burdensome.  In October 2016, the West Virginia Mass Litigation Panel, which consists of seven circuit court judges that are appointed by the Chief Justice to resolve cases where many plaintiffs sue one defendant, ruled in favor of Antero and Hall Drilling.  The landowners are appealing. The eventual ruling by the Supreme Court could have widespread impacts -- hundreds of similar cases are pending in courts across the state.  The case was slated to be heard last fall, but was delayed after attorneys representing the landowners asked Justice Evan Jenkins to recuse himself because of a potential conflict of interest. In the petition, the landowners’ legal team argued the "counsel of record" for defendant Antero Resources, Ancil Ramey, also recently represented Jenkins in a lawsuit that sought to invalidate his interim appointment to the Supreme Court.Ramey said his role in Antero case is "minor." Jenkins ultimately declined to recuse himself.  Two other justices, Tim Armstead and John Hutchison, have recused themselves.

Mountain Valley Pipeline starts the new year with new complications- When work began last February with tree-cutting, the plan was to have the Mountain Valley Pipeline completed by now. Instead, developers of the natural gas pipeline are facing what could be another setback for the project, which has already seen construction delays and cost overruns caused by legal challenges from opponents. The latest twist came last week, when the West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection reopened a public comment period for modifications to a combined state and federal permitting process that Mountain Valley must complete before it can dig trenches through streams and wetlands for its buried pipeline. With written comments now being taken through March 4, it appears that Mountain Valley will have to wait longer than expected before seeking what’s called a Nationwide Permit 12 from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Such a permit — which clears the way for the 42-inch diameter steel pipe to cross through more than 1,000 waterbodies on its 303-mile route through West Virginia and Southwest Virginia — was issued by the Army Corps in December 2017. But the permit was struck down last year by the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals. Siding with the Sierra Club and other environmental groups, the court ruled that the Army Corps lacked the authority to bypass a requirement by West Virginia regulators that pipeline stream crossings must be completed within 72 hours to limit environmental harm. Admitting that it would take more than a month to burrow through four major rivers in West Virginia, Mountain Valley was forced to suspend work on all stream crossings until it could obtain a new permit.That process appeared to be simplified after West Virginia’s DEP suggested changes to its regulations that removed the 72-hour requirement for pipeline developers, as long as they used a more environmentally friendly method of stream crossings. After taking public comments, the agency said in November that it was preparing to send the proposed modifications to the Army Corps and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for review.

Mountain Valley Pipeline files response to state's lawsuit - Widespread erosion during construction of the Mountain Valley Pipeline was caused by “extraordinary” rainfall and other uncontrollable forces of nature, attorneys for the company said Friday in response to a lawsuit filed by environmental regulators. In its first detailed reply to a legal enforcement action brought by the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality and the State Water Control Board, the company asked a judge to dismiss some of the claims. But the 28-page filing in Henrico County Circuit Court also indicated that Mountain Valley is interested in a “potential negotiated resolution” of a lawsuit that accuses it of violating environmental regulations more than 300 times. It was unclear to what degree a settlement has been discussed. A Mountain Valley spokeswoman did not immediately respond to questions. A spokeswoman for state Attorney General Mark Herring, who filed the lawsuit in December, said the office will answer the company’s filing in court. Long before construction of the massive buried pipeline began last spring, opponents argued that digging trenches for the 42-inch diameter steel pipe across rugged mountain terrain and through pristine steams was asking for environmental trouble. Inspections by DEQ have found that construction crews failed to prevent muddy water from flowing off pipeline construction easements, often leaving harmful sediment in nearby streams and properties.

Court filing asks judge to deny Mountain Valley's request for injunction against tree-sitters --  A federal judge should not act as an “enforcer” for the Mountain Valley Pipeline by using her power to remove two protesters from trees blocking the path of the controversial pipeline, supporters are arguing in court.U.S. District Court Judge Elizabeth Dillon was asked in a brief filed Wednesday to deny Mountain Valley’s request for a preliminary injunction, which the company says it needs to evict two people identified in court records only as “Tree-sitter 1” and “Tree-sitter 2.”Since early September, two protesters have been living in tree stands about 50 feet above the forest floor on a steep mountainside in eastern Montgomery County, frustrating Mountain Valley’s efforts to complete tree-cutting.But Mountain Valley is “improperly seeking to enlist this Court to act as its enforcer in its dealings with persons opposing pipeline activities and construction,” Roanoke attorney John Fishwick wrote in a friend-of-the-court brief in support of the tree-sitters.Fishwick does not represent the actual protesters, who have kept to their perches rather than attend court proceedings and defend themselves against Mountain Valley’s civil action.As the attorney for two supporters of the tree-sitters — Floyd County attorney Tammy Belinsky and Virginia Tech professor Daniel Breslau — Fishwick was allowed to make arguments on their behalf.

Drilling in Harrison County is a nuisance for residents, lawyer says -- Four families that live near gas drilling operations are disproportionately burdened by Marcellus Shale drilling, a lawyer for the families told West Virginia Supreme Court justices Tuesday morning. The Harrison County families have to deal with constant noise and traffic, Anthony Majestro, an attorney for them, told the Supreme Court. They can’t sleep because of Antero Resource Corp.’s bright lights, and they can’t sit on their porches because of the dust, he said. One resident said the bright lights make him feel like he’s living next to WVU’s Mountaineer Field, Majestro said. The question isn’t whether drilling is OK or not, Majestro said. “It’s not about whether the respondent should be allowed to do Marcellus Shale drilling. We don’t contend that our claims are the kinds of claims that would stop their drilling,” he said. Instead, he said, it’s about whether those landowners should have to bear costs and burdens without compensation perpetuated by Antero Resources, the state’s largest gas producer. “It’s the classic common-law nuisance that goes back four, five hundred years, back all the way to England,” Majestro said. The Supreme Court should affirm the lower court’s ruling that said Antero obtained property rights that were sufficient to allow these kinds of operations, said W. Henry Lawrence, who argued Tuesday on behalf of Antero.

US appeals court will not ease stay for 1.5 Bcf/d ACP natural gas pipeline - A federal appeals court said Friday it will not scale back a stay on a permit for the Atlantic Coast Pipeline, increasing prospects for delay of the 600-mile, 1.5 Bcf/d project, designed to move Appalachian gas to Mid-Atlantic markets. Setbacks to ACP's construction timeline would likely delay pressure on Transcontinental Pipe Line Zone 5 prices. Company officials did not comment on the schedule Sunday, but Dominion Energy said it remained confident in the full completion of the pipeline given the "critical customer need and a route that has been exhaustively studied and permitted." ACP in early December suspended most construction after the 4th US Circuit Court of Appeals stayed the US Fish and Wildlife Service's biological opinion as well as the incidental take statement setting limits on harm to protected species. To soften the blow, the pipeline company sought emergency clarification December 7 that the stay's application was narrower than it appeared. The court on Friday rejected that request. The decision added to the late-December rejection of another ACP attempt to put the project back on pace - a request to expedite briefing and oral argument in the case. Amid regulatory challenges, Dominion previously postponed its in-service target from mid-2019 to mid-2020 for portions of the project, while a late-2019 target remained for some segments. In a December 14 motion, the company said delay of up to a year was "all but certain" under the current oral argument schedule and "would exponentially increase" project costs. Oral argument is tentatively scheduled for the court's March 19-21 session, and the stay is in effect pending the litigation. If it was unable to complete tree felling by mid-March, ACP had told the court that time-of-year environmental restrictions on tree felling could make the additional delay inevitable. In its December 7 motion for clarification, ACP requested that the stay be limited to four species in contention. By staying the entire biological opinion and incidental take statement, "the court effectively stays work on the entire project, well beyond construction in areas with any potential to affect these species," ACP argued in the motion.

FERC opens 3 pipeline rate probes as Chatterjee tables PJM political spending complaint - Dive Brief:

• The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission opened investigations into the rates charged by three interstate natural gas pipelines on Wednesday to determine if they are "substantially over-recovering their costs of service."
• FERC opened the inquiries after asking pipelines in July 2018 to detail their rates of return following the passage of federal tax cuts in 2017 and changes to FERC's tax allowance policies. FERC also found nine gas companies had complied with the agency's request and terminated those inquiries without investigation.
• FERC on Thursday canceled a planned vote at its monthly open meeting on a political spending complaint lodged against grid operator PJM, and also declined to vote on a liquefied natural gas facility it tabled last month. The delays likely indicate a deadlock among sitting regulators on the issues, but Chairman Neil Chatterjee declined to comment on internal deliberations.

 US recalls workers from furlough for oil, gas work (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration is bringing employees it sent home for the government shutdown back to work to prepare for offshore lease sales and to open new waters to drilling. The US Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), in an revised contingency plan, says it is taking 40 workers off furlough to conduct lease sales, issue permits for seismic surveys and take the next step toward finishing a plan that would open more than 90pc of federal waters to oil and gas development. The decision represents the latest effort by the Trump administration to avoid slowing down its energy agenda during a partial government shutdown in its 24th day. The US Bureau of Land Management has continued to process oil and gas drilling permits and hold meetings to open land in Alaska to oil and gas development. That approach has raised red flags for environmentalists who say the administration is crossing the line on what activities can continue without appropriations from the US Congress. But it has softened the shutdown's effect on oil and gas companies hoping to gain a foothold in new federal areas before the end of the first term of the Trump administration. BOEM in its contingency plan cited the need to achieve the administration's "America First energy strategy" to justify why it has exempted staff to work on offshore leasing plan that would open nearly all federal waters to drilling. It says 10 employees will work on the next step in that plan, which was expected in mid-January. BOEM said it would designate more workers as exempt after today to complete work for an oil and gas lease sale in the US Gulf of Mexico scheduled in March. The agency said failure to hold that sale, and to prepare for another lease sale later this year, would have a "negative impact" on government revenues and negatively affect investment in the Gulf. BOEM is also exempting staff to process permits required to conduct seismic oil and gas surveys in the US Atlantic.

Offshore Service Spending to Outpace Onshore Shale - Spending on the offshore service sector will outpace spending on the onshore shale sector this year, according to Rystad Energy. One reason for this – while onshore shale spending is likely to remain flat this year due to current oil prices, the offshore service sector is expected to grow by four percent this year. “Many would expect offshore spending to be cut as drastically as shale, but offshore budgets were at a 10-year low last year, after four years of intense cost focus, and from that level you don’t need much additional activity or inflation to drive up the market,” Audun Martinsen, Rystad Energy head of oilfield services research, said in an email to Rigzone. With the decline of oil prices in fourth quarter of 2018 and a more bearish outlook for 2019, companies have drastically cut shale budgets to compensate the anticipated revenue loss. Martinsen pointed to the fact that the number of fracked wells per day dropped from average 50 to 44 while frack service pricing continued to decline in 4Q 2018. He expects the same – more or less – in 2019. Offshore spending will see an increase, fueled by exploration and greenfield projects, Rystad Energy forecasts. Additionally, operational expenses (OPEX) budgets will increase due to cost inflation, more fields coming on stream and a backlog of work that needs completion. Rystad Energy research finds that if the price of Brent crude were to reach $70 per barrel, the shale industry could have 14 percent growth. “It seems that the names that will be able to deliver the best revenue growth are the service companies exposed to the offshore subsea market and MMO,” Martinen said. “This is a clear switch from 2018, when it was the shale names that were market share winners in the global service market.”

Trump plans to relax Obama rules for oil companies put in place after BP disaster -  The Trump administration is expected to give BP and other big oil companies more power to self-regulate their offshore drilling operations, years after investigators found that lax regulatory oversight was one of the leading culprits behind the BP Deepwater Horizon disaster, the worst environmental catastrophe in US history. The move to relax new rules that were put in place by the Obama administration after the BP disaster, which killed 11 workers, spewed 4m barrels of oil into the Gulf of Mexico, and cost BP $65bn, comes as the White House is seeking to open offshore oil and gas drilling to the vast majority of US coastal waters, including in the Arctic. The proposed revised rules, which most experts believe will be finalised despite heavy opposition from environmental groups, include a change that would allow oil companies to select third-party companies to evaluate the safety of their equipment. Under previous rules, those entities had to be approved by the government agency that oversees offshore drilling, without any input from industry.  A separate rule on oil production safety systems that has already been finalized would also strike requirements that were put in place after the BP disaster that forced companies to get independent verification of the safety measures and equipment they use on offshore platforms, as well as a rule that required professional engineers to certify the safety of drilling equipment for new wells.

Despite Shutdown, BOEM Resumes Work on Offshore Drilling Plan - The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), the permitting agency for offshore development in federal waters, has recalled 40 furloughed employees to work on the Trump administration's proposed offshore oil and gas leasing plan. The majority of the agency - including the departments that handle offshore wind development - will remain shut. The closure of BOEM has significant implications for the wind industry, according to trade group Business Network for Offshore Wind. “There are a number of big, important offshore wind projects moving through the BOEM approval process, and we can’t afford to have them disrupted in terms of their coordination and timing,” said Liz Burdock, the group's CEO and president, speaking to Bloomberg. “We are not able to hold meetings with BOEM because they’re not able to work."Six public hearings scheduled for the $2 billion Vineyard Wind project off Martha's Vineyard have already been pushed back due to the shutdown, and the timeline for rescheduling them is uncertain. Federal tax credits for wind developments will expire this year, so a lengthy delay could impose a large financial penalty on wind farm operators, according to Business Network for Offshore Wind. Separately, BOEM has redesignated 40 of its furloughed employees as exempt from the shutdown's closure requirements, which will allow them to return to work on the National Outer Continental Shelf Program - the master five-year policy plan for oil and gas drilling in federal waters.  The first draft of this plan, which was released in January 2018, drew controversy over proposed leasing activity off the Atlantic and Pacific coasts.

Delayed by shutdown, US offshore drilling rule changes likely to be challenged by states  — Work on controversial revisions to a US offshore drilling safety rule is currently being held up by the ongoing partial government shutdown, but when ultimately finalized, the changes will be challenged in court by multiple states, sources said. The revisions, which make changes to the Blowout Preventer Systems and Well Control rule finalized in 2016 in response to the Deepwater Horizon explosion and spill, were initially proposed by the Department of the Interior's Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement in April.The proposed revisions have been under review at the White House since December 13, but sources said the officials in the White House's Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs in charge of that review have been furloughed by the shutdown, which entered its 25th day Tuesday. Sources said, depending on when the shutdown ends, it could take weeks for that review to be completed and then some weeks more if Interior needs to make additional changes.The proposed revisions to the offshore safety rule come as the Trump administration is working on expanding oil and natural gas drilling into federal Atlantic, Arctic and Eastern Gulf of Mexico waters. Interior was expected to release its proposed five-year offshore leasing plan for 2019 through 2024 by mid-January, but these plans have also been delayed indefinitely by the government shutdown, sources say.Opponents of the well control rule revisions have criticized the administration for weakening offshore safety regulations as it looks to expand offshore drilling operations. "It's almost like a never mind rule," said David Hayes, who helped write the original rule as deputy Interior secretary during the Obama administration, in an interview with the Platts Capitol Crude podcast. "We're going to go back to the way it was and not require better performance from the blowout preventers that everyone agrees are the last line of defense from an out-of-control well in the offshore" environment.

US Interior's offshore work may violate law: House chairman — The US Interior Department's decision to have roughly 40 federal employees work during the partial government shutdown on plans to expand oil and natural gas production in federal waters is likely a violation of US law, the chairman of the House Natural Resources Committee said Wednesday. While the Department of Justice is unlikely to prosecute a case against Interior, such a violation could be tested if Interior's offshore lease sales or seismic permitting are challenged in court. US Representative Raul Grijalva, a New Mexico Democrat, said that this work may violate the Antideficiency Act, a statute which prohibits agencies from expending federal funding without congressional approval. No one has ever been prosecuted in violation of this law, which dates back to the 19th century. According to a January 8 update of shutdown plans at Interior's Bureau of Offshore Energy Management, the agency said it was recalling about 40 employees to work on a decision allowing seismic testing in the Atlantic, development of the agency's offshore lease sale plan for 2019 through 2024, and work on two upcoming sales in the Gulf of Mexico. "Failure to hold these sales would have a negative impact to the Treasury and negatively impact investment in the US Offshore Gulf of Mexico," BOEM said in the update. Grijalva said the push to finish this offshore work during the partial government shutdown shows the administration's focus on oil and gas development over all other work. "It's continued unabated regardless of whatever condition the parks might be in, who's furloughed, who's not being paid," Grijalva said in an interview. "It just strikes me as ironic and glaring that this one function continues."

Court blocks offshore oil testing permits during shutdown - A federal court on Friday blocked the Trump administration from issuing any permits to conduct seismic testing for offshore oil and natural gas drilling during the partial government shutdown. Judge Richard Gergel of the District Court for South Carolina issued the order as part of an ongoing challenge by environmental groups and Democratic states to the administration’s November move toward allowing the testing. Justice Department attorneys representing the Interior Department’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) had asked Gergel to pause the case during the shutdown because they could not write filings. Gergel granted that pause, but said that the same logic means BOEM should be prohibited from granting any permits until the government reopens. He noted that last week, Interior asked furloughed employees to return to work in order to process the seismic testing applications. “It requires little imagination to realize that the returning BOEM employees could act on the pending applications and seismic testing could commence during the pendency of the stay,” he wrote in his order. He ruled that all federal agencies are prohibited from taking action to promulgate permits, otherwise approve, or take any other official action” on the applications at issue. The November action gave five companies permission to potentially harm or harass marine species when they do their testing. It is a necessary step before the BOEM can issue testing permits. Federal attorneys had told the judge previously that the BOEM would not issue testing permits during the shutdown. But the agency later updated its shutdown plan to bring in employees to work on the permits, and attorneys told the court that the permits might be issued as early as March 1. Companies want to test the ocean floor in the Atlantic to see how much oil or natural gas is underneath. The Trump administration has proposed allowing drilling in the Atlantic for the first time since the 1980s, but hasn’t allowed any drilling yet.

Feds seek penalties against Shell Offshore over 2016 oil spill - – The federal government has filed a suit against Shell Offshore Inc. over a May 2016 oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. The United States of America filed a complaint on Jan. 8 in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Louisiana against Shell Offshore Inc. citing the Clean Water Act. According to the complaint, the U.S. Coast Guard and the Louisiana responded to an oil spill that started May 11, 2016. The suit states the defendant spilled more than 1,900 barrels of crude oil into the waters of the Gulf of Mexico from a transfer pipeline at Shell’s Green Canyon Block 248 offshore system. The response efforts ended on May 16, 2016, the suit states. "Despite the alarms and sustained pressure loss, Shell continued to actively pump oil through the cracked pipeline for at least another seven and a half hours. This was due in substantial part to Shell’s failure to provide adequate training for its control room operators," the suit states. The plaintiff seeks civil penalties of up to $1,848 per barrel of oil discharged, or if the violation resulted from gross negligence or willful misconduct, up to $5,432 per barrel discharged; injunctive relief; costs; such other and further relief as the court deems just and proper. It is represented by the U.S. Department of Justice in Washington, D.C. and the United States Attorney for the Eastern District of Louisiana in New Orleans. 

  With support from DeSantis, Florida lawmaker files fracking ban in House - With the idea getting support from Gov. Ron DeSantis, a House Republican has filed a proposal to ban the oil- and gas-drilling process known as “fracking” in Florida. Rep. Heather Fitzenhagen, R-Fort Myers, filed the bill (HB 239) on Thursday, the same day DeSantis released a series of environmental proposals that included opposition to fracking. Sen. Linda Stewart, D-Orlando, filed a similar proposal (SB 146) last month to try to ban fracking. The bills are filed for consideration during the legislative session that starts March 5. Environmental groups and some lawmakers have long wanted to block potential fracking in Florida, but legislation has not passed. During the 2018 session, a Senate version was approved by two committees, while a House version was never heard. Fracking, in part, involves injecting water, sand and chemicals underground to create fractures in rock formations, allowing natural gas and oil to be released. While supporters say fracking increases production and holds down energy costs, opponents argue it threatens water supplies and can cause environmental damage.

 Oil, Gas Drilling Method 'Fracking' Faces Ban Under Proposed Florida Bill - The drilling procedure commonly known as "fracking" could be banned in Florida under a proposed bill. The general bill was filed Thursday by Republican Rep. Heather Fitzenhagen, who represents Fort Myers. The measure is supported by Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who was inaugurated on Tuesday. DeSantis on Thursday signed an order seeking to fulfill his campaign promise tomake the environment a priority by confronting Florida's blue-green algae and red tide crisis, among other issues. DeSantis also announced he would take "necessary actions" to oppose all off-shore oil and gas activities in Florida. The practice of fracking has long been criticized by environmental activists as a dangerous method to extract fossil fuels. Organizations warn of the release of toxic chemicals possibly poisoning the land and groundwater. Fracking has been linked to generating tremors and earthquakes, as well. House Bill 239 would ban "advanced well stimulation treatment" – meaning all methods of injecting fluids into a rock formation.

Walz: Decision on proceeding with Line 3 lawsuit will be his (AP) — Gov. Tim Walz said Friday that he and his new administration will be “actively engaged” on contentious natural resources issues, including Enbridge Energy’s plan to replace its aging Line 3 oil pipeline across northern Minnesota. Speaking to reporters at an annual Department of Natural Resources conference, Walz said he has asked his team to review the lawsuit that was filed by the outgoing administration of Gov. Mark Dayton that challenges the decision by the independent Public Utilities Commission to approve the project. Walz said he wants to understand why the Commerce Department felt the process was insufficient and that it needed to turn to the courts. “The decision will stop with me, but it will be informed by all of the stakeholders involved,” the governor said. Commerce said in its appeal that Enbridge did not introduce, and the commission did not properly evaluate, the kind of long-range oil demand forecast required by law. The PUC stood by its decision, saying its approval was supported by the law and a vigorous public review process. Walz said he’s grateful for Dayton’s work as governor, but he’ll bring a new leadership style, pattered on the style Walz used when he was in Congress, building coalitions from the beginning. He acknowledged he’s inheriting some “pretty touchy issues,” but pointed out that he has a new DNR commissioner in Sarah Strommen, a new head of the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency and that he’ll get to appoint a new PUC commissioner. “You can expect to see us actively engaged, not turning away from these,” he said.

Can U.S. LPG Export Terminals Keep Up? - U.S. production of natural gas liquids is projected to increase by 17% this year, and by another 10% in 2020, according to RBN’s forecast. These gains will result in similar increases in the output of propane and normal butane — two NGL purity products generally referred to as LPG — and, with U.S. demand for LPG expected to stay relatively flat, most of the incremental volumes will be sent to export terminals for shipment to foreign buyers. The question is, will the nine U.S. marine terminals that are equipped to send out LPG have enough capacity to handle the much-higher flows? Today, we continue our series with a review of four smaller export terminals along the Gulf and East coasts. This is the third and penultimate episode in our series in which we’ve been discussing the U.S.’s flip from net LPG importer to net exporter seven years ago and the challenges presented by fast-growing propane/butane export volumes. As we said in Part 1, waterborne LPG exports soared to an average of more than 1.1 MMb/d in 2018, with about 92% of those volumes being sent out of the half-dozen LPG terminals in coastal Texas and Louisiana. The rest of the exports-by-ship are flowing through a total of three smaller terminals in the Mid-Atlantic region and Pacific Northwest. We concluded Part 1 with a review of the Gulf Coast’s — and the U.S.’s — largest LPG export facility: the Enterprise Hydrocarbon Terminal (EHT; dark blue dot and lettering in Figure 1), which is located on the Houston Ship Channel and whose capacity is in the midst of being expanded to 720 Mb/d from the current 545 Mb/d. According to our NGL Voyager report, EHT sent out an average of 447 Mb/d of LPG last year, or about 40% of total U.S. LPG exports by ship.

Saudi Arabia Eyes Investment Into U.S. Gas— Saudi Arabia is nearing a deal to invest in U.S. liquefied natural gas, write the Journal’s Sarah McFarlane and Summer Said. Saudi Arabian Oil Co., known as Aramco, has narrowed its focus to a shortlist of at least four U.S. LNG projects and intends to announce a deal in the first half of this year, people familiar with the matter said. Companies with projects being considered include Tellurian Inc., a Houston-based LNG developer known for its intention to ship gas from its planned Driftwood terminal in Louisiana, said sources. In addition, San Diego-based Sempra Energy, which is developing five LNG projects between the U.S. and Mexico, has had discussions with Aramco concerning its Port Arthur project in Texas, according to sources.  Any such investment would mark a sea change in the energy flows between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia.  America’s shale revolution has broken years of dependence on Middle Eastern oil, to the extent that the International Energy Agency expects the U.S. to become a net energy exporter by 2023.  

Here's why Abu Dhabi petrochemicals chief has his eye on North American shale -  While North American shale may be competition for OPEC members, some crude-exporting countries in the Arabian Gulf are simultaneously taking advantage of the commodity's ability to fuel lucrative investments beyond oil. For the United Arab Emirates' Musabbeh al-Kaabi, chief executive of Abu Dhabi's Mubadala Petroleum and Petrochemicals, the shale revolution has the made North American gas and petrochemicals industry very attractive, bringing competitively-priced gas feedstock to the market. The petrochemicals firm is a major component of Mubadala Investment Company, Abu Dhabi's state-owned holding company. It operates as a sovereign wealth fund with assets of more than $226 billion, and is aimed at diversifying the emirate's economy."We as an investor made big investments in the last 18 months, north of $12 billion dollars, and some of these big investments are happening in North America," al-Kaabi told CNBC's Hadley Gamble during the Atlantic Council Energy Forum in Abu Dhabi.This was for two simple reasons, the CEO said. "It is a big market and it is enjoying a highly competitive feedstock. So we like the business in that part of the world because of these two reasons." Feedstock refers to raw material, such as natural gas, used in petrochemical production. Gas dominate's the company's business, and al-Kaabi has previously highlighted North America as the focus of a strategic shift when it comes to petrochemicals thanks to the shale revolution. "Other parts of global energy I would say, the energy industry, the price would be set by the high cost producers going forward," al-Kaabi added. "And who are the high cost producers nowadays? The shale producers. And we will keep monitoring what is happening in that part of the world."

Market Edges Higher As Winter Is Forecast To Return - Highlights of the Natural Gas Summary and Outlook for the week ending January 11, 2019 follow. The full report is available at the link below.

• Price Action: The February contract rose 5.5 cents (1.8%) to $3.099 on a 25.6 cent range ($3.166/$2.910).
• Price Outlook: The market ended the streak of new weekly lows as weather forecasts not only became less bullish but turned bullish with below normal temperatures now forecast. While winter is now half over, demand can still be impressive and as a reminder, on January 10, 2014 prices traded to $3.953 before soaring to $6.493 on February 24, 2014. While we do not expect that type of price action, higher prices may be in store if temperatures remain below normal through February. For daily updated storage projections, subscribe to our joint publication with RBN Energy. CFTC data has not been updated due to the US government shutdown. Aggregated CME futures open interest rose to 1.301 million as of January 11. The current weather forecast is now cooler than 7 of the last 10 years. Pipeline data indicates total flows to Cheniere’s Sabine Pass export facility were at 3.3 bcf. Cove Point is net exporting 0.8 bcf. Corpus Christi is exporting 0.001 bcf. Cameron is exporting 0.000 bcf.
• Weekly Storage: US working gas storage for the week ending January 4 indicated a withdrawal of (87) bcf. Working gas inventories fell to 2,614 bcf. Current inventories fall (153) bcf (-5.5%) below last year and fall (481) bcf (-15.6%) below the 5-year average. The report was accompanied by a 4 bcf reclassification in the Mountain region that resulted in a total withdrawal of (91) bcf.
• Storage Outlook: The EIA weekly implied flow was (1) bcf from our EIA storage estimate. This week’s storage miss is back within our tolerance. Over the last 5 weeks, the EIA has reported a total withdrawal of (373) bcf compared to our (374) bcf estimate. The forecasts use a 10-year rolling temperature profile past the 15-day forecast. Our joint publication with RBN updates storage projections daily.
• Supply Trends: Total supply fell (0.8)bcf/d to 81.6 bcf/d. US production fell. Canadian imports rose. LNG imports rose. LNG exports fell. Mexican exports fell. The US Baker Hughes rig count was unchanged +0. Oil activity decreased (4). Natural gas activity increased +4. The total US rig count now stands at 1,075 .The Canadian rig count rose +108 to 184. Thus, the total North American rig count rose +108 to 1,259 and now exceeds last year by +44. The higher efficiency US horizontal rig count rose +3 to 948 and rises +143 above last year.
• Demand Trends: Total demand rose +7.4 bcf/d to +94.2 bcf/d. Power demand rose. Industrial demand rose. Res/Comm demand rose. Electricity demand rose +955 gigawatt-hrs to 74,073 which trails last year by (19,258) (-20.6%) and trails the 5-year average by (8,088)(-9.8%%).
• Nuclear Generation: Nuclear generation fell (544)MW in the reference week to 93,431 MW. This is (2,016) MW lower than last year and (1,370) MW lower than the 5-year average. Recent output was at 93,019 MW.

The heating season has begun. With a forecast through January 25 the 2018/19 total cooling index is at (1,677) compared to (1,506) for 2017/18, (1,308) for 2016/17, (1,320) for 2015/16, (1,621) for 2014/15, (1,836) for 2013/14, (1,572) for 2012/13 and (1,553) for 2011/12.

 Natural gas prices spike 13 percent on forecasts for long, severe cold - Natural gas prices spiked on Monday as the market gained confidence that the severe cold gripping the United States will persist longer than previously thought, driving up heating demand and taxing gas stockpiles.Front-month Henry Hub natural gas futures for February rose more than 13 percent on Monday. The contract hit a session peak at $3.539 per million British thermal units, its highest level since Dec. 27.The contract was last up 12.7 percent at $3.493 per mmBtu. Updated forecasts show below-average temperatures persisting over the next two weeks, with the cold snap drifting eastward from the Midwest toward the East Coast. Traders were anticipating the cold would linger, but weather models available last week didn't give them the confidence to take long positions in natural gas futures heading into the weekend, according to Jacob Meisel, chief weather analyst at Bespoke Weather Services. "The forecast has turned significantly colder," he said. "It's really the magnitude of the cold and the confidence in severity longer term that's changed over the weekend." "There is surprisingly strong agreement even late in the week two forecast."  Natural gas prices have been falling since the middle of December, following a spike above $4 per mmBtu in the fall. Hotter-than-usual late summer temperatures and a surprisingly cold fall increased demand for cooling and heating last year, causing natural gas stockpiles to fall to their lowest level in over a decade.

 US EIA lowers spot gas forecasts for 2019 on robust production, injections - — The Energy Information Administration Tuesday lowered its spot natural gas price forecasts in 2019, predicting that production growth will keep pace with demand and export growth, and that inventory builds will outpace the five-year average. The agency, in its January Short-Term Energy Outlook, lowered its forecast for Q1 Henry Hub natural gas spot prices by 57 cents to $3.03/MMBtu, while the Q2 forecast was trimmed 13 cents to $2.73/MMBtu. The full-year 2019 price estimate also fell 22 cents to $2.89/MMBtu, while the new 2020 estimate sees spot prices averaging $2.92/MMBtu. The agency bumped up its natural gas consumption estimates in the US by 1.46 Bcf/d to 99.4 Bcf/d for the first quarter of 2019, and by 0.76 Bcf/d to 71.44 Bcf/d for Q2. "EIA forecasts power sector consumption of natural gas to remain largely unchanged in 2019 and then rise by 3.3% in 2020 because of continuing increases in natural gas-fired electric generation capacity," the agency said. It also raised the consumption estimate for the full year 2019 by 1.08 Bcf/d to 82.65 Bcf/d, and forecast consumption will average 83.55 Bcf/d in 2020. Production is expected to build on the records set in 2018. "[P]ermian and Appalachian regions will drive record US production over the next 24 months," EIA Administrator Linda Capuano said. The agency raised by 0.05 Bcf/d to 96.33 Bcf/d its natural gas marketed production estimate for the US in Q1 and by 0.08 Bcf/d to 97.23 Bcf/d for Q2. The full-year 2019 estimate rose by 0.19 Bcf/d to 97.28 Bcf/d, and 2020 levels were put at 99.68 Bcf/d. While inventories were forecast to reach 1.405 Tcf at the end of March 2019, 15% below the five-year average for that time, EIA expected injections would exceed the average rate, as production outpaces consumption in late March through October. That would bring inventories to 3.758 Tcf at the end of October 2019, just above the five-year average.

How fears of a US recession could impact spending in the US natural gas midstream sector - (Platts podcast) S&P Global Platts senior natural gas writer Harry Weber and Americas natural gas managing editor Joe Fisher discuss the outlook for the US midstream sector as fourth-quarter 2018 earnings reporting season begins, from the appetite for further major pipeline projects to the markets that will be served by increasing gas production to the impact LNG export growth will have on the industry.

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report - Storage Deficit Widens Going Into February - EIA reported a storage draw of 81 Bcf for the week ending Jan 11. This compares to the -90 Bcf we projected and consensus average of -82 Bcf. The -81 Bcf was considerably smaller than the five-year average of -203 Bcf and last year's -183 Bcf. As you can see, this week's EIA natural gas storage report was a hideous one, especially when you compare it to the average and last year. The weather set-up for the report was a very bearish one as you can see below: As you can see, natural gas storage deficit to the 5-year average is expected to decline back to -600+ Bcf by the start of February, thanks to a much more bullish second-half January outlook. Heating demand is expected to increase to the highest level this winter and the colder-than-normal weather looks to last into February. Based on our estimates, EOS has now been revised down to 1.2 Tcf again with the bullish weather backdrop. A sustained cold in February would see EOS revise lower, which would push natural gas prices even higher. Our fundamental models show February contracts to trade up to $3.8 and March to trade up to $3.50, based on the current projection and outlook. We remain long UGAZ and believe that natural gas prices today are discounting the bullish weather too much as the market continues to question the 1) duration of the bullish weather and 2) overly sensitive to HDD changes for January. In our view, we believe the bullish weather is sustainable given the weather "set-up" is especially favorable for the bulls. The Alaska and Greenland ridging pattern remains in place allowing for a more durable bullish weather outlook into February. We think this set-up presents a good opportunity to remain long natural gas.

US to add 216.5 Bcf of working gas storage capacity by 2022: report — Various midstream companies plan to add more than 200 Bcf of working natural gas storage capacity at 17 sites in the US over the next four years due to the rise of LNG export terminals and gas-fired power generation, according to a report released Monday. The US is slated to add 216.5 Bcf of working gas storage through 2022 at a cost of $1.2 billion, according to a report released Monday by the UK firm GlobalData.   "The ever growing demand for natural gas in the US is driving the growth of the underground gas storage industry in the country,". "The proposed natural gas-fired power plants and the LNG liquefaction terminals are also aiding the underground gas storage industry growth." If the projects do manage to come online, it would increase total working gas capacity in the US to about 4.9 Tcf. The US Energy Information Administration currently estimates 4.7 Tcf of working gas capacity. No new significant storage fields have entered service over the past five years. However, many of these planned projects have already faced substantial delays, so it is possible much of this additional storage capacity may not come online by 2022. The proposed projects are scattered geographically, but the majority would involve salt-dome formations. Unlike depleted oil and gas fields or aquifers, salt-dome facilities allow for greater flexibility in switching from injections to withdrawals. This allows players to meet peak demand periods for power generation or for delivery to LNG export terminals more easily. About 12% of all current US storage capacity is contained in salt caverns. The largest proposed storage facilities include the Magnum Gas Storage Project in Utah, Falcon Gas Storage's MoBay Storage Hub in Alabama and Chestnut Ridge Storage's Junction Natural Gas Storage facility in Pennsylvania.

 Open season gauges interest in improved access to US, Canadian barrels in Louisiana — Phillips 66 Partners, Harvest Midstream and PBF Logistics plan to develop a pipeline they expect to provide three Louisiana refineries with improved access to price-advantaged domestic crudes, they said. The companies on Monday launched an open season for the ACE pipeline system, serving intrastate Louisiana. With completion and startup expected by late 2020, the 400,000 b/d pipeline would transport crude from the St. James storage hub to refineries in Belle Chasse, Meraux, and Chalmette, the companies said. An option exists to add a delivery destination in Clovelly, Louisiana, the storage hub for the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, they added. The pipeline system will include a newbuild segment to connect the St. James hub to the CAM pipeline, which currently transports crude from the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port to all three refineries. Harvest Midstream plans to contribute its existing CAM pipeline to the ACE system. Refineries potentially benefiting from increased access to both light sweet and medium to heavy sour crude as a result of the new line include Phillips 66's 247,000 b/d Alliance refinery in Belle Chasse, Valero's 135,000 b/d Meraux refinery and PBF's 189,000 b/d Chalmette Refining. The ACE line would mean improved access to light sweet barrels drawn from St. James for all three regional refineries. Valero Meraux and PBF Chalmette mainly process medium to heavy sour barrels, with light sweet domestic barrels making up the balance of the crude slate. Phillips 66's Alliance, in contrast, mainly runs light sweet crude with offshore medium sour grades and some imported heavy sour grades making up the remainder of the crude slate.Permian Basin crudes are priced at a wide discount to Louisiana Light Sweet crude. Midland WTI has averaged at an $11.96/b discount to LLS so far in January, S&P Global Platts data shows. Pipeline constraints are likely still keeping Midland WTI prices under pressure, but the discount to LLS has narrowed from $20.75/b in August as more capacity has come online.

US Crude Oil Exports Continue to Grow - U.S. crude oil exports have soared due to a combination of:

• rising domestic crude oil production
• high but flat domestic demand
• a law change in December 2015 that allowed sales beyond just neighbor Canada

Since the shale revolution started in 2008, U.S. crude production has increased almost 125 percent to around 11.2 million barrels per day (MMbpd). Yet, this light, tight oil boom has not been a great match for the massive 18.6 MMbpd U.S. refining system. U.S. refineries are generally configured to process the heavier crudes imported from longtime suppliers Canada, Mexico and Venezuela. So today, 65 percent of U.S. crude oil production has a very high 40 degree API gravity or above. This has left huge amounts of surplus shale oil available for export. This mismatch between what the U.S. is producing and what it is typically built to process also explains why the country still imports a significant amount of oil, taking in an average of 8 MMbpd in late 2018. Since January 2018, higher prices have helped increase U.S. crude production nearly 20 percent. U.S. crude exports therefore more than doubled year-over-year to average 1.9 MMbpd in 2018. The rise in production, augmented by takeaway constraints in West Texas that have depressed local prices, has offered a key advantage for U.S. exporters by keeping WTI prices in check. In contrast, mounting global demand and geopolitical concerns (e.g., U.S. sanctions returning to Iran) have pressured Brent, the international benchmark, to the upside. Rising from nothing prior to 2016 to 510,000 bpd in June 2018, China has accounted for 20 percent of U.S. crude exports in recent years. But a U.S-China trade war that officially kicked off that very month has China implementing a 25 percent tariff on U.S. crude. By August, purchases from the U.S. had dropped to zero. For China, similar quality West African oil is a practical replacement for American crude. But for the United States, an alternative market for China is a much harder find. India could help but its oil market is just a third the size of China’s, and India has bought just 10 percent of the U.S. crude that China has.

First U.S. crude cargoes head to China since trade breakthrough: sources (Reuters) - Three cargoes of U.S. crude are heading to China from the U.S. Gulf Coast, trade sources said on Monday, the first departures since late September and a 90-day pause in the two countries’ trade war that began last month. The vessels left Galveston, Texas, last month and are scheduled to arrive at Chinese ports between late January and early March, according to shipbrokers and vessel tracking data. The shipments mark a change since Chinese buyers largely began avoiding U.S. oil during the trade dispute that flared last summer. “It looks like China has resumed purchasing U.S. crude,” one U.S.-based shipbroking source said. The person, who declined to be identified because he was not authorized to speak publicly about the matter, said the destination data could yet change. China is the world’s biggest crude importer and became a top buyer of U.S. crude after Washington lifted a 40-year ban on shipments in late 2015. It imported 325,000 barrels per day (bpd) of U.S. crude in the first nine months of 2018, customs data showed. Beijing has also resumed purchases of some U.S. soybeans for delivery this year. But China’s 25 percent tariff on U.S. soybean cargoes remains in place. The supertanker Alboran carrying about 2 million barrels of oil recently rounded South Africa’s Cape of Good Hope and is due to arrive in China late this month, said brokers, citing fixture data. The Almi Atlas and the Manifa, two other vessels carrying 2 million barrels of crude, are expected to reach China in late February or early March. The two ships are currently located off Brazil, according to Refinitiv Eikon vessel tracking data. The cargoes mark the first shipments of U.S. crude to China since U.S. President Donald Trump in December said China would begin taking more American products.

U.S. refiners scramble as White House eyes Venezuela sanctions (Reuters) - U.S. refiners are bidding up prices for scarce types of crude oil needed for their most sophisticated plants as the United States reconsiders harsher sanctions on Venezuela that could further reduce imports of the country's oil. Trump administration officials in recent days met with U.S. oil company executives to lay out potential actions in response to the Jan. 10 inauguration of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in an election it considered illegitimate. Among other steps, U.S. officials have recognized the opposition-run Venezuelan congress as the only legitimately elected authority. But the proposals that would most affect the energy industry involve banning U.S. exports of refined products or limiting oil imports - a move that, until now, the White House has not taken even after sanctioning individuals and barring access to U.S. banks. "It's more serious than I've heard before," said a refining industry executive familiar with the White House discussions. "They are setting the table to pull the trigger if they have to." U.S. refiners have few supply alternatives if the Trump administration were to cut off crude imports from that country. Supplies of the heavy oils preferred by Gulf Coast refiners have been harder to secure in recent months because of cutbacks and production curbs in Western Canada, Mexico and Venezuela. One type of U.S. heavy oil, called Mars, traded at a $6.80 per barrel premium to U.S. crude futures on Thursday, the strongest in nearly five years and up from a $4.50 per barrel premium on Tuesday, a U.S. oil broker said. U.S. oil companies that depend on Venezuelan oil have opposed past proposals that would halt imports and did so again this week, said several people close to the talks. Two big refiners, Phillips 66 and PBF Energy, cut their dependence on the South American country last year, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data. Latin American advisors have warned the administration that oil sanctions could backfire by making the United States appear too involved in the Venezuelan political crisis, said a person familiar with talks among the White House, the National Security Council and oil firms. 

It May Not Be Just OPEC And Russia That Is Cutting Production -  January 1st of 2019 marks the start of another crude oil production cut by OPEC and non-OPEC oil producing nations. An agreement was made and announced in Early December to reduce production by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in order to “stabilize” rapidly falling crude prices. WTI crude futures fell almost 45% from early October to their recent lows on December 24th and OPEC and its allies were determined to stop the selloff. It’s interesting to note that 11% of the fall in the price mentioned above happened after the production cut announcement on December 7th. Clearly, the cut wasn’t going to be enough short-term. Since the lows on Christmas Eve, however, WTI crude has rallied over 10%. Part of that rally has to do with a WSJ article revealing that Saudi Arabia is looking to drive Brent Crude prices back up to the mid-$80 range. According to the article they intend to make a big splash in January, preparing deeper production cuts than required as part of the OPEC+ agreement. People forget that compliance during the last production cut averaged 116% of promised cuts and most of that was done by the Saudi’s. There is also evidence of a potential slowdown in U.S. shale production. The rate of hydraulic fracturing began to decline in the last four months of 2018. According to Rystad Energy, the average number of fracking jobs declined to 44 per day in November 2018, down from an average of between 48 and 50 for the five-month period between April and August 2018. Rystad Energy’s research fit well with that of the Dallas Fed, which reported last week that drilling activity began to slow in the Permian Basin in Texas in the fourth quarter. Shale tends to slow with falling prices, so this is not a surprise, but if demand picks up at all, prices may spike and more quickly than the market is expecting. Maybe not a rush to $80, but high $60’s/low $70s could be in the cards by late February.

Chesapeake to cuts rigs from 18 to 14 in 2019 - Chesapeake Energy has reported estimated average fourth-quarter 2018 production will be between 462,000 and 464,000 barrels of oil-equivalent per day (Boe/d), Kallanish Energy reports. It also said Q4 2018 estimated average oil production was between 86,000 and 87,000 barrels per day (Bpd). The company said it intends to cut capital spending in 2019, but expects to grow production due to improved efficiencies and its focus on high-margin oil assets expected to provide financial benefits. It will reduce the number of drilling rigs by 22% in 2019, to 14 from the 18 rigs now under contract. Rig costs have been reduced, Chesapeake said. Chesapeake said it has reduced its debt by $1.8 billion from year-end 2017, to roughly $8.2 billion at year-end 2018. Chesapeake is improving its margins while reducing debt and improving its sustainable cash flow, CEO Doug Lawler said, in a statement. He noted the company generated more than $2 billion in net proceeds through its divestment of its Utica Shale assets in Ohio. The company lost production with the Utica sale to Encino Acquisitions Partners, but that was replaced by growing production in late 2018 from the company’s assets in the Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas and the Powder River Basin in Wyoming. The Utica produced 10% of the company’s oil production in 3Q 2018. Chesapeake is also proceeding with its proposed $4 billion merger with WildHorse Resources. Shareholders of both firms will vote on the merger Jan. 31. Chesapeake said it intends to operate four rigs in the WildHorse acreage in 2019. It is also proceeding with its Austin Chalk and Upper Eagle Ford appraisal programs, with results likely released by April 1.

WildHorse to Lay Off Staff After Chesapeake Acquisition -  WildHorse Resources Management Company, which is being acquired by Chesapeake Energy Corporation, is laying off all employees at its Houston headquarters, according to a letter dated Dec. 13, 2018 sent to the Texas Workforce Commission (TWC). According to the TWC, 94 employees will lose their jobs on the date of the closing of the Chesapeake deal, expected to happen between Feb. 1 and Feb. 14. If the closing date is prior to the date that is 60 days after Dec. 13, 2018, (or prior to Feb. 11), then affected employees that have remained through the closing date will be provided supplemental payment and benefits during the period beginning on the date that immediately follows the closing date and Feb. 11, the letter states. The Houston office of WildHorse will be closed and all layoffs will be permanent. Affected employees will not be able to retain their jobs by displacing or bumping another employee. 

Chevron Capex Highlights Permian -- Chevron Corp. will spend about half its capital budget on projects that yield quick returns over the next three years, underscoring the importance of shale as it prepares for growing uncertainty in how the world consumes energy. The U.S. oil giant will spend about $9 billion to $10 billion a year on “short-cycle investments” through 2022, primarily focused on the Permian Basin, the world’s biggest shale oil region, the San Ramon-based company said in a presentation on its website Friday. The Permian is on course to make up about one in five barrels the super major pumps worldwide. Big Oil was slow to join the U.S. shale boom, focusing on mega offshore projects while watching independent wildcatters work out the technology before dipping their toes in. But now they’re investing heavily, attracted by the ability to ramp up production quickly and potentially reduce it if oil prices crash. That’s a particularly useful trait when the future of oil and gas consumption is unclear, with electric vehicle usage growing and governments clamping down on greenhouse gas emissions. “Most of our assets are competitive when tested against aggressive scenarios” such as the International Energy Agency’s sustainable development model, Chevron said. “Our portfolio is resilient and flexible.” Oil and natural gas production increased by about 7 percent last year compared with a year earlier, Chevron said, in line with analysts’ expectations. The company also said “organic” capital-projects spending exceeded its target by 5 percent in 2018. 

US oil and gas rig count drops 11 to 1127, ninth consecutive week of drops — The US oil and rig count dropped by 11 to 1,127, the ninth consecutive week of decreases as oil prices continued to hover in the low $50s/b, S&P Global Platts Analytics said Thursday.  The losses all came from oil-directed rigs, which fell 11 to 886, while gas-oriented rigs were unchanged at 220, Platts data for the week ended January 16 showed. The typical two- to three-month lag between oil prices and rig activity may have now caught up with the domestic rig count, as oil prices began falling from levels in the mid-$70s/b in October.  Rig counts also fell in most of the eight large domestic marquee plays, although the Permian appeared to be the featured exception in gaining three rigs to 481. The Permian in now down 18 rigs since its recent peak of 499 in mid-November. The Haynesville Shale, chiefly a dry gas play in East Texas and Northwest Louisiana, was up one rig to 63. But the DJ Basin in Colorado was down four rigs to 32, while the Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas and the SCOOP/STACK play in Oklahoma were each down three rigs in the past week to 88 and 103, respectively. The Marcellus Shale, mostly sited in Pennsylvania, was down two rigs to 60, while the Utica Shale largely in Ohio was down one rig to 16. The Eagle Ford has showed the longest streak of rig declines in the last several weeks - a total of 13 from 101 rigs in the first week of December, Cavey said. Prior to October of 2018, all signs pointed towards production growth in the Eagle Ford as WTI crude prices reached their highest since late 2014 at roughly $75/b, he said in a written analysis in Platts' January Southeast/Gulf Oil and Gas Production Monitor. At the same time, shale production in that basin managed to grow a bit, reaching 1.37 million b/d in December 2018, 100,000 b/d higher than the prior year's exit rate. "The half-cycle internal rate of return for a typical well in the Eagle Ford is currently 27%." That means the average producer is making money, but their margins have become increasingly slim with IRRs dropping nearly 33 percentage points since October of last year, he added. "As a result, shale oil production in the Eagle Ford is forecast to remain largely flat and grow merely 32,000 b/d exit-to-exit in 2019,"

US Drops 25 Oil and Gas Rigs This Week - The United States dropped a whopping 21 oil rigs this week, marking the third consecutive week of declines and the biggest drop since early 2016, according to data compiled by Baker Hughes, a GE Company. In addition to the oil rig decline, gas rigs dipped by four. The states who saw the bulk of the declines were Texas and Oklahoma, who lost 11 and 10 rigs, respectively. California lost three rigs, Kansas and Louisiana each lost two and Colorado and Pennsylvania each lost one. The following states all added one rig: Alaska, New Mexico, North Dakota, Ohio, West Virginia and Wyoming. In regard to basins, the Permian saw the deepest declines this week, dropping seven rigs. The Granite Wash dropped three rigs, while the Mississippian lost one. Rig gains included Cana Woodford (five) and the Ardmore Woodford, Eagle Ford, Haynesville and Marcellus all added one rig. This week’s total rig count is 1,050. It’s still 114 higher than the rig count one year ago, which was 936.

 US Oil Rig Count Plummets Most In 3 Years After Production Hits Record High - After surging 200k b/d in the last week to a new record for US crude production, Baker Hughes reports that the US oil rig count has plunged by 21 in the last week - the biggest drop since Feb 2016. Is this the turn for the Permian? Perhaps, but, as OilPrice.com's Nick Cuningham notes, while low oil prices are beginning to slow the growth of U.S. shale, in the years ahead oil and gas drilling could be curtailed by a different problem: a shortage of water. Water is a crucial ingredient in the fracking process, and drillers use copious volumes of it. The problem for the U.S. oil industry is that so much of the output growth expected over the next half-decade or so depends very heavily on the Permian basin, where water is increasingly scarce. Water already accounts for about 15 percent of the cost of a shale well, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley. “In the Permian, total spending on water is expected to double over the next 5 years, to $22B, with E&Ps on avg using 50 barrels (bbls) of water for each lateral foot completed,” the investment bank wrote in a new report. “Assuming 10k lateral feet per well, this implies that the ~5,500 existing Permian well permits will require ~2.75 billion bbls of water to complete.”That’s a lot of water in an area that doesn’t have a lot of it. “Given the sizeable water need, we believe drought and water scarcity present long-term risks to shale economics, particularly in the Permian, a core area of growth in a drought-prone region,” Morgan Stanley warned.It’s worth pausing and noting that the warning is not coming from an environmental group, or even a local community organization opposed to a drilling presence. It’s coming from a major Wall Street investment bank, which says that drilling economics in the world’s hottest shale basin could be upended because of water scarcity.It’s a rather ironic development. Greenhouse gas emissions from oil and gas drilling are fueling climate change, which in turn could make the most desirable oil and gas play increasingly costly due to growing water problems.

New U.S. Oil And Gas Drilling To Unleash 1,000 Coal Plants’ Worth Of Pollution By 2050 - HuffPost - Amid mounting calls to phase out fossil fuels in the face of rapidly worsening climate change, the United States is ramping up oil and gas drilling faster than any other country, threatening to add 1,000 coal plants’ worth of planet-warming gases by the middle of the century, according to a report released Wednesday. By 2030, the U.S. is on track to produce 60 percent of the world’s new oil and gas supply, an expansion at least four times larger than in any other country. By 2050, the country’s newly tapped reserves are projected to spew 120 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere. That would make it nearly impossible to keep global warming within the 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit above pre-industrial averages, beyond which United Nations scientists forecast climate change to be catastrophic, with upward of $54 trillion in damages. The findings ― from a report authored by the nonprofit Oil Change International and endorsed by researchers at more than a dozen environmental groups ― are based on industry projections collected by the data service Rystad Energy and compared with climate models used by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the world’s leading climate research body. The report casts a new light on the impact of the U.S. fracking boom and calls into question the Trump administration’s stance that China, which surpassed the U.S. as the world’s largest emitter of carbon dioxide in 2007, remains the biggest impediment to halting warming.  Nearly 90 percent of new U.S. oil and gas drilling through 2050 is expected to depend on hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, the controversial technique that blasts bedrock with chemical- and sand-laced water, creating cracks that release previously inaccessible fuels. Upward of 60 percent of the emissions enabled by new U.S. drilling would come from two major fracking hot spots ― the Permian Basin, a massive field stretching from Texas to New Mexico; and the Appalachian Basin, encompassing most of Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio. Continued extraction in the Permian Basin alone would use up 10 percent of the emissions that remain in the entire world’s carbon budget to keep warming within 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit.

Big win for oil and gas industry: Colorado Supreme Court reverses Appeals Court ruling in Martinez case - In a win for the oil and gas industry, the Colorado Supreme Court on Monday reversed a lower court ruling that said the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission should give more weight to the public health, safety and the environment when considering new drilling. However, the win could turn out to be a lull before the next political face-off that has become more common as drilling has ramped up in the state’s more populous areas. As industry representatives welcomed the court’s decision, saying it upholds the law’s recognition of multiple interests, legislators and Gov. Jared Polis said the ruling highlights the need for changes to better protect the public. “The bottom line is we need to make sure that health and safety are a priority and reform of the (Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission) is a beginning,” said Sen. Mike Foote, D-Lafayette. “We are working on a bill to make sure health and safety are prioritized.” Last week, newly inaugurated Gov. Jared Polis said in his first State of the State address that he would work to give communities more say in how oil and natural gas are developed. Polis has set a goal of moving Colorado’s electric grid to entirely renewable sources by 2040, although he concedes it’s more of an aspirational goal. “While I’m disappointed by today’s ruling, it only highlights the need to work with the legislature and the Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission to more safely develop our state’s natural resources and protect our citizens from harm,” Polis said in a statement.

'Shameful': Colorado Supreme Court Denounced for Siding With Big Oil Profits Over Public Health in Youth-Led Suit -  In a move green groups and youth climate leaders denounced as a gift to the fossil fuel industry at the expense of public health, the Colorado Supreme Court on Monday reversed a lower court decision and ruled that the state's regulators do not have to consider environmental and health impacts before approving new oil and gas projects."We will continue the fight for our Earth and our future, despite the mountains we need to climb and the setbacks that we will overcome. Regardless of the court's decision in our case, the fight will continue." —Emma Bray"It is so disappointing for the youth and the people of Colorado to hear the decision from the Colorado Supreme Court today," said Xiuhtezcatl Martinez, an 18-year-old plaintiff in the youth-led suit against the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (COGCC)."To know that the judges in the highest court of my state believe that the interests of the oil and gas industry come before the public health, safety, and welfare of my fellow Coloradans is shameful," Martinez added. "But I want you all to know that this fight for climate justice is far from over. My fellow plaintiffs, youth around the world, and I will continue to stand up for our right to a healthy future." Emma Bray, a 19-year-old plaintiff from Denver, said in a statement the ruling will not stop the growing youth movement for bold climate solutions. "Not a single person, company, or corporation can silence the young generation's voices," Bray declared. "We will continue the fight for our Earth and our future, despite the mountains we need to climb and the setbacks that we will overcome. Regardless of the court's decision in our case, the fight will continue."

With Colorado High Court Setback, Fracking Activists Look To Continue Statehouse Fight - Environmental activists here were dealt a blow Monday when the Colorado Supreme Court ruled against a closely watched case that would have required the state to prioritize health and environmental concerns in oil and gas permitting. But with a newly Democratic legislature and governor in the state promising to take another look at the fracking debate, environmentalists are optimistic that they can pursue a successful strategy in the statehouse. “This decision really validates everything that we’ve been saying, that this state is not prioritizing public health and safety, and that regulations are not sufficient,” said Anne Lee Foster of Colorado Rising, a group opposed to the hydraulic fracturing drilling technique known as fracking. “We’ve shown that this is a real issue impacting Coloradans every day, and we’re going to keep fighting until the end.” “It’s in the hands of the legislators now,” she added. Monday’s decision caps a five-year legal fight brought by six youth activists from Boulder County. The activists, led by Xiuhtezcatl Martinez, filed a petition with the state’s oil and gas regulatory body in 2013 asking that new permits be suspended until a comprehensive scientific study could show that new activity would be safe. When the petition was denied, the activists sued and ultimately won a favorable decision in the Martinez case in the state’s Appeals Court last spring. But Monday’s Supreme Court ruling overturns that interpretation, leaving existing policy in place. The state, the court found, was right to continue to interpret permits by weighing “cost-effectiveness and technical feasibility” against adverse effects on health and the environmental. The case was closely watched along Colorado’s Front Range, where the fracking boom has put wells near playgrounds, parks and schools (Extraction Oil and Gas infamously installed a fracking site just 1,360 feet from the largely minority Bella Romero Academy in Greeley.) Concerns about worsening air quality and health effects, such as increased cancer risks, have led to lawsuits and community actions, including an unsuccessful ballot measure in November to increase well setbacks, requiring that they be located at least 2,500 feet from occupied buildings.

Weld County oil and gas spill report for Jan. 13 - The following spills were reported to the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission in the past two weeks.  Information is based on Form 19, which operators must fill out detailing the leakage/spill events. Any spill release that may impact waters of the state must be reported as soon as practical.   Spills and leaks typically are found during routine maintenance on existing wells, though some actual “spills” do occur among the 23,000-plus wells in the county.

• • KP KAUFFMAN COMPANY INC, reported Jan. 8 a historical flowline spill in Frederick, near Weld County roads 16 and 15. Less than a barrel each of oil and produced water spilled. Crews found the spill while cleaning a non-reportable release caused by high line pressure in a flowline. Historical contamination is being excavated and disposed of at a landfill.
• • AKA ENERGY GROUP LLC, reported Jan. 7 a gas compressor station spill about 1 mile west of Gilcrest, near Weld roads 42 and 27. Between one and five barrels of condensate and less than a barrel of produced water spilled. A third-party truck driver transferred condensate to the incorrect tank battery, which was already full.  Impacted soil will be disposed of at a landfill.
• • DCP OPERATING COMPANY LP, reported Jan. 7 a pipeline spill about 2 miles north of Fort Lupton, near Weld 20 and U.S. 85. Between one and five barrels of condensate spilled. A six-inch gas gathering pipeline developed a leak.
• • BONANZA CREEK ENERGY OPERATING COMPANY LLC, reported Jan. 4 a historical tank battery spill about 4 miles southeast of Kersey, near Weld roads 44 and 46. More than five barrels of oil spilled. The release was initially reported in 2009, but was never closed. A loadline froze overnight and failed at the production tank, releasing oil into the earthen containment berm. The oil was vacuumed up and the impacted soil was disposed of at a landfill.
• • HIGHPOINT OPERATING CORPORATION,reported Jan. 4 a well spill about 2 miles west of Hereford, near Weld roads 136 and 77. About four and a half barrels of produced water spilled. The liner came loose from the polish rod, spilling produced water to the pad surface..
• • CONFLUENCE DJ LLC, reported Jan. 2 a tank battery spill about 2 miles south of Hudson, near Weld roads 8 and 45. About 260 barrels of oil spilled inside containment. A drain line valve on the back of the oil tank blew out.
• • WHITING OIL & GAS CORPORATION, reported Jan. 2 a tank battery spill about 8 miles northeast of Keota, near Weld roads 110 and 127. About 30 barrels of produced water spilled into lined containment. The cause is being investigated and has been associated with a 4-inch tee on the produced water loadout line.
• • PDC ENERGY INC, reported Dec. 31 a tank battery spill about 6 miles northeast of Kersey, near Weld roads 64 and 61. An unknown amount of oil and between five and 100 barrels of produced water spilled. A water vault valve failure released the produced water and oil inside containment.

 Democrat: Keystone XL developer should pay into cleanup fund (AP) — South Dakota lawmakers should require the Keystone XL pipeline’s developer to pay into a state oil spill cleanup fund and impose more regulations on so-called man camps, the state Senate Democratic leader said Friday. Sen. Troy Heinert, a member of the Rosebud Sioux Tribe, said that the state and legislators should sit down with the tribes to hear their concerns. The proposals come a day after Rosebud President Rodney Bordeaux addressed the Legislature, saying the pipeline gives his people great anxiety. “We know that a lot of the resistance is going to come near tribal land,” Heinert said of the pipeline that would go through South Dakota. “Nobody wants violence ... on any side, but nobody wants to be, you know, run over by private security forces either.” The project is being delayed by a federal court that found the Trump Administration didn’t fully consider the environmental effects when it approved the permit for the 1,184-mile (1,900 kilometer) pipeline, intended to ship up to 830,000 barrels a day of Canadian crude through Montana and South Dakota to Nebraska, where it would connect with lines to carry oil to Gulf Coast refineries. A hearing on the proposed pipeline is scheduled for Monday in Montana. Heinert said he would “just as soon see it not built.”

Jury awards Boone County landowner $250,000 in Dakota Access pipeline lawsuit -- A Boone County jury this week awarded a property owner who sued over the construction of an oil pipeline through her property $250,000 following a nearly weeklong trial in which she challenged the pipeline’s use of eminent domain. The jury returned its judgment in the case against Dakota Access on Wednesday, saying the $250,000 was the difference in the “fair and reasonable value of the property,” before it was taken through eminent domain in July 2016, and the value of the property after it was taken. Judith Anne Lamb, as trustee of the Judith Anne Lamb Revocable Trust, filed the lawsuit in 2016 as construction on the pipeline was beginning. Its construction, which was completed in 2017, was the focus of protests from activists across Iowa, including Boone and Story counties. Lamb and her husband, Richard, live in the Iowa City area but own about 150 acres in Boone County, just west of Ames. Telephone messages left for attorneys for Lamb and Dakota Access were not returned. Lamb claimed the construction of the pipeline damaged the land and decreased its value. In court documents, Lamb said that because of a multitude of opportunity for commercial use for the land, an initial evaluation in July 2016 showing the land’s value at just over $90,000, was just a fraction of its actual value. She said the land had a value of about $950,000. At the center of the debate leading up to and during its construction was the use of eminent domain to take land needed to bury the pipeline, with opponents arguing the project didn’t meet the requirement of public benefit to use eminent domain. Opponents also argued the environmental risks associated with its construction and eventual operation were too great, and that the construction of the pipeline would cause long-term damage to valuable farmland.

Permits revoked for 40 idled natural gas wells near Buffalo -- A state regulatory board revoked a company’s permits Thursday for 40 natural gas wells near Buffalo that have been idle for the past seven years while the company has struggled financially. The state Board of Minerals and Environment, a nine-member citizen panel appointed by the governor, took the action during a meeting in Pierre. The board also directed the state Department of Environment and Natural Resources to calculate and make a report at the board’s next meeting on Feb. 21 on the maximum civil penalty that may be assessed against the company, Spyglass Cedar Creek LP, of Houston, Texas. The maximum penalty could be in the millions of dollars. Discussion at the meeting indicated that the board may legally assess penalties of up to $500 per day, starting from the issuance of a notice of violation on July 10, for each regulatory violation at every one of the 40 wells. The violations include unproductive and unplugged wells, inadequate signage, missing reports and logs, missing or inadequate well gauges, and insufficient reclamation at well sites. Board Chairman Rex Hagg, of Rapid City, expressed preliminary support for a maximum penalty. “I think when you look at the record in its entirety on this matter, I don’t think it gets much more egregious, absent some major environmental leak or problem,” Hagg said.

Explosion reported at Watford City salt water disposal site -- Emergency personnel responded to an explosion at an oil field salt water disposal site southeast of Watford City on Thursday. Karolin Jappe, McKenzie County's emergency manager, said there was one man on site at the time of the incident. The man was not injured. The incident, which took place at a White Owl Energy Services site, was reported at 12:15 p.m. Jappe said the cause of the explosion and fire is unknown. "It's unusual to have (fires) at a salt water disposal in the winter," she said. "Usually it's in the summer when lightning hits it. We can have four to five per summer."

 North Dakota seeing seasonal dip in oil production - Oil and gas production in North Dakota retreated a bit in November after hitting all-time highs during the previous month. North Dakota, the nation's second-largest oil producing state after Texas, pumped out 1.38 million barrels per day in November, down 1.2 percent from October. Natural gas production fell 1.5 percent in November to 2.52 million MCFs per day. (An MCF is 1,000 cubic feet of gas.) "This is the marginal drop in production I warned people about with winter coming on and lower oil prices," said Lynn Helms, director of North Dakota's Department of Mineral Resources. Oil prices dropped rapidly in November, while the state experienced about 15 days of below-average temperatures and above-average precipitation. Oil production in North Dakota tends to slow somewhat as winter weather sets in. Despite falling oil prices, "the industry remains cautiously optimistic," Helms said. "They have not backed down on the rig count." The number of oil rigs currently operating in North Dakota is 68, up from 67 in December and 64 in November. A rising rig count indicates operators are drilling more new wells. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark U.S. crude oil price, hit a nearly four-year high of $76 in October. But oil production rose while fear spread about a weakening global economy, sending WTI below $50 per barrel by the last half of December and into early January. The price has since rallied to $52. North Dakota oil trades at a discount price to WTI and is currently at about $37 a barrel.

Boom Ahead For Pacific Northwest LPG Exports? - LPG export terminals along the Gulf Coast account for more than nine of every 10 barrels of propane and normal butane that are shipped from the U.S. to foreign buyers. That makes perfect sense, given the terminals’ proximity to major NGL production areas like the Permian, the Eagle Ford and SCOOP/STACK, and to the world-class fractionation hub in Mont Belvieu, TX. But, increasingly, LPG terminals on the East and West coasts, are growing in significance. On the Atlantic side, Marcus Hook, near Philadelphia, is enabling more and more volumes of Marcellus/Utica-sourced propane and butane to reach overseas markets. And, as we discuss in today’s blog, West Coast exports are on the rise as well, with Petrogas’s Ferndale terminal in Washington state providing a straight shot across the Pacific to Asia for propane and butane fractionated in Western Canada, plus a good bit more LPG export capacity under development in British Columbia. This is the fourth and final episode in this series on rising LPG export volumes and the race to develop new export terminal capacity to handle still-higher volumes of propane and normal butane — two NGL purity products generally referred to as LPG — into the early 2020s. We set the stage in Part 1, where we noted that the U.S. flipped from being a net importer to a net exporter of LPG in 2012, and that waterborne LPG exports subsequently soared to more than 1.1 MMb/d (in 2018). The vast majority of those volumes — about 92% of last year’s total — are being sent out of the half-dozen LPG terminals in coastal Texas and Louisiana. The rest of the exports-by-ship are flowing through a total of three smaller terminals in the Mid-Atlantic region and Pacific Northwest. We concluded Part 1 with a review of the Gulf Coast’s — and the U.S.’s — largest LPG export facility: the Enterprise Hydrocarbon Terminal (EHT), which is located on the Houston Ship Channel and whose capacity is in the midst of being expanded to 720 Mb/d from the current 545 Mb/d. According to our NGL Voyager report, EHT sent out an average of 447 Mb/d of LPG last year, or about 40% of total U.S. LPG exports by ship.

Art Berman- Exposing The False Promise Of Shale Oil -  (podcast & transcript) Art Berman, geological consultant with over 37 years experience in petroleum exploration and production, returns to the podcast this week to debunk much of the hopium currently surrounding America's shale oil output. Because the US is pinning huge hopes on its shale oil "revolution", so much depends on that story being right. Here’s the narrative right now:

• The US, is the new Saudi Arabia
• It's the swing producer when it comes to influencing the price of oil
• The US will be able to increase oil production for decades to come
• New technology is unlocking more oil shale supply all the time

But what if there’s evidence that runs counter to all of that? We’re going to be taking a little victory lap on this week's podcast because The Wall Street Journal has finally admitted that shale oil wells are not producing as much as the companies operating them touted they would produce -- which is what we’ve been saying for years here at PeakProsperity.com, largely because we closely follow Art's work:The Wall Street Journal did some research and they got the general point that the wells are not as good as advertised.But what they missed is just how much farther off many of these reserves are than even the discounted reserves that they've reported.Bottom line: if the understatement is only 10%, that’s a rounding error and it’s not that much of an issue to the average person. But I've been trying for a decade to get the number that I independently develop to get anywhere close to the published numbers. In most cases, I can only get near 60% or 70% of them. So, the gap, I think is much more substantial.The reason that The Wall Street Journal didn’t get it more right is because they don’t do any independent research and of course they didn’t talk to me, they didn’t talk to Dave Hughes, they didn’t talk to people who actually do the work, and so they’re getting one side of the story.  Click the play button below to listen to Chris' interview with Art Berman (52m:56s).

'Realistic' new model points the way to more efficient and profitable fracking - A new computational model could potentially boost efficiencies and profits in natural gas production by better predicting previously hidden fracture mechanics. It also accurately accounts for the known amounts of gas released during the process. “Our model is far more realistic than current models and software used in the industry,” said Zdeněk Bažant, Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Mechanical Engineering, and Materials Science and Engineering at Northwestern’s McCormick School of Engineering. “This model could help the industry increase efficiency, decrease cost, and become more profitable.”  Despite the industry’s growth, much of the fracking process remains mysterious. Because fracking happens deep underground, researchers cannot observe the fracture mechanism of how the gas is released from the shale. “This work offers improved predictive capability that enables better control of production while reducing the environmental footprint by using less fracturing fluid,” said Hari Viswanathan, computational geoscientist at Los Alamos National Laboratory. “It should make it possible to optimize various parameters such as pumping rates and cycles, changes of fracturing fluid properties such as viscosity, etc. This could lead to a greater percentage of gas extraction from the deep shale strata, which currently stands at about 5 percent and rarely exceeds 15 percent.”

US oil output to average 12 million bopd in 2019 - U.S. crude oil production will average 12.1 million barrels per day (MMbpd) in 2019 and 12.9 MMbpd in 2020, with most of the growth coming from the Permian region of Texas and New Mexico. That’s according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest short-term energy outlook, which estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.9 MMbpd in 2018. The EIA’s latest outlook forecasts that U.S. dry natural gas production will average 90.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) this year and 92.2 Bcf/d in 2020, with increases in the Appalachia and Permian regions “driv[ing] the forecast growth”. U.S. dry natural gas production averaged 83.3 Bcf/d in 2018, the EIA highlighted.  U.S. crude oil and petroleum product net imports are estimated to have fallen from an average of 3.8 MMbpd in 2017 to an average of 2.4 MMbpd in 2018, according to the EIA’s January outlook. The organization forecasts that net imports will continue to fall to an average of 1.1 MMbpd in 2019 and to less than 0.1 MMbpd in 2020. In the fourth quarter of 2020, the EIA forecasts the United States will be a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products, by about 0.9 MMbpd.

Surging oil output will push US towards energy independence in 2020, Dept of Energy says - The U.S. will make major strides towards energy independence in the next two years as oil production and exports hit new highs, according to the Department of Energy. U.S. oil production, already at an all-time high this year, will increase by another 2 million barrels per day by 2020, the agency's statistics bureau projects. The same year, the nation will start exporting more crude oil and fuel than it imports, the Energy Information Administration said in in its latest forecast. American drillers pumped an average 10.9 million bpd in 2018, breaking the record going back to 1970. EIA sees U.S. output averaging 12.1 million bpd this year and 12.9 million bpd in 2020. "According to the January outlook, the Permian region of Texas and New Mexico will continue to push U.S. production into record territory over the next 24 months, approaching 13 million barrels per day some time in 2020," EIA Administrator Linda Capuano said in a statement. Most of the growth is coming from shale fields like the Permian, where frackers use advanced drilling methods known as hydraulic fracturing to free oil and natural gas from rock formations. The surge in U.S. production is making the country less reliant on foreign oil. In 2018, net imports of oil and petroleum products fell from 3.8 million bpd to 2.4 million bpd. EIA forecasts net imports will dwindle to 1.1 million bpd next year and just 100,000 bpd in 2020. In the final three months of 2020, EIA thinks the U.S. will become a net exporter by about 900,000 bpd. The U.S. already ships out more natural gas than it imports. Next year, gas production will jump another 8 percent to a new all-time high at 90.2 billion cubic feet per day, EIA projects. Growth in 2020 is seen slowing, with gas output hitting 92.2 Bcf per day. By 2020, EIA thinks natural gas will generate 37 percent of the country's electric power, up from 35 percent last year. Meanwhile, coal's share of electric power generation will slip from 28 percent to 24 percent during the same period. That will help contribute to a further drop in U.S. coal production.

STEO highlights: US oil output to hit 13 million b/d in 2020 despite slower growth - — US oil production is on track to hit 12 million b/d in March and 13 million b/d in October 2020, but the growth rate will slow considerably from recent levels in response to lower forecast WTI prices and ongoing Permian pipeline constraints, the Energy Information Administration said Tuesday. EIA expects the spread between WTI-Cushing and Midland wellhead prices to widen this year, which will slow drilling activity growth in Texas and New Mexico, but that growth will start to accelerate on a monthly basis into 2020 after new pipeline capacity comes online later this year. US oil production is forecast to average 12.07 million b/d in 2019 and 12.86 million b/d in 2020, EIA said in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook, which included 2020 projections for the first time. EIA said the US produced 11.8 million b/d in December, a staggering 1.76 million b/d increase from December 2017. US output averaged 10.93 million b/d in 2018.The US will become a net oil exporter in Q4 2020, EIA said, with total exports of crude and refined products exceeding total imports by 870,000 b/d.Other highlights of the Short-Term Energy Outlook:

• ** EIA forecast Brent crude prices to average $60.52/b in 2019 and $64.76/b in 2020, down from the 2018 average of $71.19/b.
• ** WTI crude is forecast to average $54.19/b this year and $60.76/b in 2020, down from $65.06/b in 2018.
• ** Global oil markets will be relatively balanced in 2019-20 as US output growth more than offsets declines from the OPEC-led output cuts, EIA said.
• ** Permian production will account for 600,000 b/d of total US growth in 2019 and 500,000 b/d in 2020, EIA said. It sees Permian output hitting 4.8 million b/d by end-2020, about 1 million b/d higher than in December 2018.
• ** EIA expects Bakken output to rise to 1.4 million b/d in 2019 and 1.5 million b/d in 2020, as growing natural gas takeaway constraints slow growth. The Bakken produced about 1.3 million b/d in 2018.
• ** Eagle Ford output is forecast to rise by 90,000 b/d to 1.4 million b/d in 2019 and then fall slightly in 2020.
• ** US offshore oil production is expected to average 1.9 million b/d in 2019 and 2.2 million b/d in 2020, up from 1.7 million b/d in 2018, when 11 new projects came online. This year, EIA expects six new projects to start, followed by another 12 in 2020.
• ** Alaska's production is expected to remain flat at 490,000 b/d in 2019 and 2020.

US will 'reinforce its leadership' as the world's top crude producer in 2019, IEA says - The level of crude output from the U.S. will once again be a major factor this year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said its closely-watched report on Friday, with the energy giant on track to reaffirm its position as the world's leading crude producer. The IEA report comes shortly after OPEC and non-OPEC producers officially implemented a fresh round of supply cuts. Alongside Russia and nine other nations, top oil exporter Saudi Arabia struck a deal with the rest of OPEC in December to keep 1.2 million barrels per day (b/d) off the market from the start of January. "While the other two giants voluntarily cut output, the U.S., already the biggest liquids supplier, will reinforce its leadership as the world's number one crude producer," the Paris-based IEA said Friday. "By the middle of the year, U.S. crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia." International benchmark Brent crude traded at around $61.69 Friday morning, up 0.8 percent, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $52.56, almost 1 percent higher. Brent crude has fallen almost 30 percent since climbing to a peak of $86.29 in early October last year, while WTI is down more than 31 percent over the same period. The collapse in oil prices was exacerbated by concerns about oversupply, as well as a stock market slump amid worries over rising U.S. interest rates. That prompted OPEC and non-OPEC producers to throttle back output at the start of 2019, in an effort to try to put a floor under falling oil prices. The IEA has previously touted the "growing influence" of the U.S. in global oil markets, saying such a dramatic rise in crude output could soon challenge the market share of OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia and non-OPEC heavyweight Russia. U.S. crude production has soared in recent months, rising by more than 2 million b/d to an unprecedented 11.9 million b/d. The IEA said Friday that its estimates for global oil demand growth in 2018 and 2019 remained unchanged at 1.3 million b/d and 1.4 million b/d, respectively. The group said the impact of higher oil prices in 2018 was "fading," which should help to offset cooling economic growth over the coming months.

 The US oil boom is only getting started - Remember that brief moment in late 2018 when the U.S. became a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products combined? It was just a preview of what's to come late next year, according to the Energy Information Administration'sfirst detailed 2020 market forecast. "EIA forecasts that net imports will continue to fall to an average of 1.1 million [barrels per day] in 2019, and to less than 0.1 million b/d in 2020," per EIA's outlook published Tuesday.  "In the fourth quarter of 2020, EIA forecasts the United States will be a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products, by about 0.9 million b/d," they found.   That factoid is a sign of the country's re-emergence as a global oil powerhouse and increasingly prominent exporter as domestic production has surged. Crude oil production is already at record levels of roughly 11.5 million barrels per day and climbing. EIA sees U.S. crude output averaging 12.1 million daily barrels this year and 12.9million in 2020, cracking the 13 million mark late in the year.  "Steady growth from non-OPEC countries, including the United States, headlines the forecast for global crude oil production through 2020. We expect the United States to remain the world’s largest producer," EIA administrator Linda Capuano said in a statement alongside the the report.   Here is where I'm contractually obligated to note that the U.S. will still remain very tethered to the whims of global markets, and net exports doesn't — and, logistically, shouldn't — mean the country won't still import lots of crude.

Feature: Europe to see big rise in US crude oil imports in Feb — The volume of US crude oil arriving into Europe, which has been rising of late, will pick up sharply in February, pressuring values for North Sea and Mediterranean grades. "There are a lot of US barrels coming over and landing in February, more than [has been seen in the past couple of months] due to Asia not pulling as much in the near future due to turnarounds," a crude trader said. "It is going to massively affect the balance of crude and affect North Sea and Urals." Trading and shipping sources estimated that 800,000-850,000 b/d of US crude will arrive into Europe in February, with the majority headed to Northwest European refineries, although a sizeable volume will go to Mediterranean destinations. While the main crude grade continued to be light, sweet WTI Midland, sources said naphtha-rich Eagle Ford and medium sour Mars have also been offered to refineries. Earlier this month, three VLCCs were said by sources to have been placed on subjects to ship US crude to Europe. US crude rarely moves to Europe in VLCCs, and the trend only started on December 24 when the VLCC Olympic Lady left Corpus Christi Lightering for Rotterdam. Indeed, European refiners typically prefer Aframax-size cargoes and, to a certain extent, Suezmaxes which offer more flexibility than the larger VLCCs. The Brent-WTI spread -- assessed at $8.55/b at the London close Wednesday-- has been less of a factor as it has largely remained within an $8.00-$10.50/b range since early September, S&P Global Platts data showed.   Platts assessed the route at Worldscale 115 Wednesday, down from a peak at w192.50 late last year. The arrival of US crude has affected Kazakhstan's CPC Blend and Russia's Urals crude, which have started to see an impact on demand for February cargoes, trading sources said. In Northwest Europe, medium sour Urals -- which differs in quality from most of the US grades, with WTI Midland not considered as a direct competitor -- has remained near multi-year highs even as the fuel oil crack has lost some of its previous strength, leading some refineries to consider running a sweeter crude slate. Meanwhile, CPC Blend in the Mediterranean has been facing headwinds from the Turkish straits delays, traders said. With US cargoes not facing those issues, some buyers have increased their US crude intake in February. As a result, CPC Blend will likely command lower prices in February. Urals in Northwest Europe was assessed at a 15.5 cents/b premium to the Mediterranean Dated strip Wednesday, while CPC Blend was assessed at a 70 cents/b discount to the Mediterranean Dated strip. In the North Sea, barrels clearing to the East were helping make space for US barrels, traders said. "It seems an armada of crude is coming in in February and March from the US," a source said.

Changes in marine fuel sulfur limits will put temporary upward pressure on diesel margins - The January 2019 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), released at noon today, for the first time includes analysis of the effect that upcoming changes to marine fuel sulfur specifications will have on crude oil and petroleum product markets. Beginning January 1, 2020, the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) new regulations limit the sulfur content in marine fuels used by ocean-going vessels to 0.5% by volume, a reduction from the previous limit of 3.5%. The change in fuel specification is expected to put upward pressure on diesel margins and modest upward pressure on crude oil prices in late 2019 and early 2020. EIA’s analysis indicates that the price effects that result from implementing this new standard will be most acute in 2020 and will diminish over time.  Residual oil—the long-chain hydrocarbons remaining after lighter and shorter hydrocarbons such as gasoline and diesel have been separated from crude oil—currently comprises the largest component of marine fuels used by large ocean-going vessels, also known as bunker fuel. Marine vessels account for about 4% of global oil demand.  Removing sulfur from residual oils or upgrading them to more valuable lighter products such as diesel and gasoline can be an expensive and capital-intensive process. Refineries have two options with regard to residual oils: invest in more downstream units to upgrade residual oils into more valuable products or process lighter and sweeter crude oils in order to minimize the production of residual oils and the sulfur content therein. EIA forecasts that the implementation of the new IMO fuel specification will widen discounts between light-sweet crude oil and heavy-sour crude oil, while also widening the price spreads between high- and low-sulfur petroleum products. In the January STEO forecast, Brent crude oil spot prices increase from an average of $61 per barrel (b) in 2019 to $65/b in 2020 with about $2.50/b of this increase being attributable to higher demand for light-sweet crude oils priced off of Brent.  The expected increased premium on low sulfur fuels will likely mean higher diesel fuel refining margins, which EIA forecasts will increase from an average of 43 cents per gallon (gal) in 2018 to 48 cents/gal in 2019 and 65 cents/gal in 2020. Motor gasoline margins averaged 28 cents/gal in 2018 and are expected to increase slightly to an average of 29 cents/gal in 2019 and 33 cents/gal in 2020.

The Shale Oil Revolution Actually Reflects A Nation In Decline – Chris Martenson - Here in the opening month of 2019, as the US consumes itself with hot debate over a border wall, far more important topics are being ignored completely.Take US energy policy. In the US press and political circles, there’s nothing but crickets sounding when it comes to serious analysis or any sort of sustainable long-term plan.Once you understand the role of energy in everything, you can begin to appreciate why there's simply nothing more important to get right.Energy is at the root of everything. If you have sufficient energy, anything is possible. But without it, everything grinds to a halt.For several decades now the US has been getting its energy policy very badly wrong.  It's so short-sighted, and rely so heavily on techno-optimism, that it barely deserves to be called a 'policy' at all. Which is why we predict that in the not-too-distant future, this failure to plan will attack like a hungry wolfpack to bite down hard on the US economy’s hamstrings and drag it to the ground. America's energy policy blunders are nowhere more obvious than in the shale oil space, where it's finally dawning on folks that these wells are going to produce a lot less than advertised.Vindicating our own reports -- which drew from the excellent work of Art Berman, David Hughes and Enno Peters’ excellent website -- the WSJ finally ran the numbers and discovered that shale wells are not producing nearly as much oil as the operators had claimed they were going to produce:Fracking’s Secret Problem—Oil Wells Aren’t Producing as Much as Forecast: Thousands of shale wells drilled in the last five years are pumping less oil and gas than their owners forecast to investors, raising questions about the strength and profitability of the fracking boom that turned the U.S. into an oil superpower.(Source) The main conclusion of this analysis is that US shale producers have overstated their well output by 10% collectively. And as much as 50% for certain individual companies. These numbers are easy to collect and analyze. While it’s a great thing to finally have the WSJ show up here, many years later than the independent analysts cited above, they still didn't get close to the actual truth. In actuality, the shale plays are going to produce roughly half of what is currently claimed by shale operators.  Instead of a -10% collective hit to production, we should be ready for something closer to -50%. Not only does that “raise questions” about the role of the U.S. as an oil superpower, it ought to raise alarm bells about its entire energy strategy.

Trump administration expands oil drilling despite shutdown - Three weeks into the longest US government shutdown in history, many important government services have been paused – but the Trump administration has continued efforts to expand oil drilling. Despite the shutdown directive, which has seen national park staff furloughed and the parks suffering from neglect, the interior department has continued processing oil drilling permits and applications. It has also moved forward with a controversial plan to increase drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska (NPR-A).  According to a “contingency plan” for an interior department agency, the Bureau of Land Management, approved last year, employees exempt from furloughs include those “working on selected energy, minerals and other associated permit activities for which the bureau charges a processing fee”.As a result, workers in New Mexico and Wyoming have continued to process oil and gas drilling applications.In Alaska, the Trump administration is rolling out a contentious plan to overwrite Obama-era protections and expand the oil and gas leasing in two controversial areas, the wildlife refuge and the NPR-A. Since the shutdown began, the interior department moved forward with previously scheduled public meetings to educate stakeholders and provide opportunities for comment and discussion.  Conversely, the same type of meetings scheduled by the department for an 800-megawatt wind farm project being built off the coast of Massachusetts, were canceled. Oversight officials have begun to investigate the agency. “Asking people to comment on two major development processes in the Arctic with huge potential environmental and human consequences without anyone in the agency able to answer questions defeats the purpose of the public participation process,” chairman of the House Committee on Natural Resources, Raúl M Grijalva wrote in a letter to the acting secretary of the interior, David Benhardt on 7 January. He added that the move gave “the strong impression that BLM is simply trying to check the boxes and end the comment periods as soon as possible, not engage in a meaningful dialogue with impacted communities or stakeholders”.

Alaska regulators review BP wells after oil, gas leak — State oil and gas regulators are reviewing the mechanical integrity of BP wells in northern Alaska after a well released gas and a small amount of oil in a manner that appears similar to a 2017 leak, officials said. The leak at the well on the North Slope began Dec. 6 and was stopped after two full days, BP in Alaska spokeswoman Megan Baldino told the Anchorage Daily News. "BP immediately reported the incident in accordance with state and federal laws," Baldino said. No one was injured, and BP is investigating the spill, Baldino said. The spilled oil was confined to the immediate well-house area and did not impact tundra, she said.  The well apparently rose suddenly, or "jacked up," said Tom DeRuyter, on-scene coordinator for the state Department of Environmental Conservation. Equipment on top of the wellhead hit the top of the well house, damaging a valve seal and causing the leak, he said. The oil and gas release last month appears to be a "failure event" similar to the uncontrolled release of well fluids in 2017, said Hollis French, chair of the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, in a letter to Janet Weiss, head of BP in Alaska. In April 2017, a wellhead and valve assembly jacked up, striking the roof of the well house and causing an oil and gas release, DeRuyter said.

Alaska officials probing BP oil, gas wells at Prudhoe Bay after spill (Reuters) - Regulators in the U.S. state of Alaska will investigate all of the oil and natural gas wells operated by BP Plc at its Prudhoe Bay oil field after the release of a small amount of crude oil and gas from a well that had earlier been shut. The Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (AOGCC) has scheduled a Feb. 7 hearing “to assess the mechanical integrity of Prudhoe Bay wells operated by BP Exploration (Alaska), Inc.,” the agency said in a notice issued on Friday. Last month’s leak occurred at one of 14 wells that BP had shut in 2017 following a much bigger release oil and gas then. The most recent failure, detected on Dec. 7, released natural gas and about two gallons of crude oil, said Megan Baldino, spokeswoman for BP Exploration (Alaska) Inc. The gas release was brought under control two days later, she said. There was no oil released to the tundra and no one was injured, she said. There are 1,780 Prudhoe Bay wells, said Baldino, adding that the company is cooperating with the AOGCC’s investigation. “BP is investigating the incident to determine the cause. We are cooperating with AOGCC’s request for more information,” she said in an email on Monday. The earlier failure, in April 2017, caused crude oil to spray over a roughly 1 acre (0.4 hectare) area and caused natural gas to vent for days before it was brought under control. That well failure was linked to permafrost thaw. The normally frozen soil thawed, triggering movement that pushed the well up 3 to 4 feet (1.2 meters), breaking a pressure gauge that previously regulated the site, according to regulators. That sparked a North Slope-wide well review ordered by the AOGCC. In the end, BP identified and shut the 14 wells that because of an outdated and flawed design. In the aftermath of that incident, AOGCC officials concluded that the permafrost thaw was the result of the wells’ design flaw, not to climate change.

Snow removal equipment strikes pipe, causes spill in village (AP) — A heavy equipment operator plowing snow in a Yukon River village struck a fuel pipe that spilled diesel. The Fairbanks Daily News-Miner reports an estimated 3,000 gallons (11,356 liters) of diesel hit the ground in the village of Beaver. The spill is about the volume of 10 pickup truck bed tanks. The Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation says the village drinking water well and the Yukon River are about 600 feet (183 meters) from the spill area. The spill was discovered Tuesday at the Beaver Cruikshank School tank farm, a fuel oil storage facility. The Yukon Flats School District is listed as the party responsible for the spill. State environmental staff made plans to travel to the site Friday. Beaver is 110 miles (177 kilometers) north of Fairbanks.

Woman in iconic anti-fracking photo calls it a 'middle finger' to the industry -  When Amanda Polchies decided to go to an anti-fracking protest near Rexton, N.B., in 2013, she didn't expect to become the subject of an image that would be seen around the world. Polchies said when she arrived, she saw elders being pepper-sprayed and handcuffed. She rushed to the front of the protest lines, standing beside a line of women just a few feet away from a line of police officers. "None of these people had weapons and they were treated like criminals," Polchies said. At the time, RCMP spokeswoman Const. Jullie Rogers-Marsh said that no rubber bullets were used but that RCMP members used "sock rounds" — also known as bean bag rounds, which are a type of non-lethal ammunition — on two occasions during the clash in an attempt to defuse the situation. As the line of RCMP officers advanced, Polchies got to her knees and prayed, holding up a single eagle feather. "I was scared," Polchies said. She recalled being worried she would get hurt, but also remembered feeling bold and defiant. "Holding that feather was kind of like a middle finger, really," she said. "It made me feel good and proud … and that there was nothing they could do about it." A photo of that moment, taken by Inuk journalist Ossie Michelin, was part of a national exhibit at the Canadian Museum for Human Rights in Winnipeg. Polchies said as she closed her eyes and prayed, she couldn't see what was happening She was joined on the ground by a group of women who sat next to her and prayed. As police drew closer, they ordered the women to move back. Some got up, but Polchies and one other woman stayed. After some time passed, Polchies opened her eyes to see no police in front of her, but moments later a couple of police officers rushed to arrest Polchies and the other woman beside her. "I got pushed on the ground and my head shoved into the cement," she said. "He just pushed me over and left me there and zip-tied my hands behind my back." She didn't know anyone took any photos until the next day — but even then, it wasn't clear the photo would become so symbolic of the struggle between Indigenous sovereignty and natural resource development.

Another Crucial Canadian Pipeline Runs Into Trouble - Late last year, Royal Dutch Shell gave the greenlight to a massive LNG export terminal on Canada’s Pacific Coast, one of the largest investments in LNG in years. But like other fossil fuel projects in Canada, the plans have run into some trouble.  Shell’s LNG Canada project hinges on a crucial pipeline that will connect gas fields along the border of British Columbia and Alberta to the Pacific coast at Kitimat. The Coastal GasLink pipeline is to be constructed by TransCanada (or, rather TC Energy, as the company now wants to be known). The Coastal GasLink pipeline was supposed to mark a departure from previous long distance pipelines in Canada – a project that would, from the start, adequately consult with First Nations. Prior pipeline projects – Enbridge’s Northern Gateway and Line 3; TransCanada’s Energy East; as well as Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain Expansion – ran into stiff resistance from various First Nations. TransCanada hoped that Coastal GasLink would be different. But, it too is now meeting resistance. Members of the Wet’suwet’en nation threw up makeshift barricades to stop construction on their land in recent weeks. On January 7, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police broke through those barricades and arrested at least 14 people. RCMP said it was enforcing a court order, but the clash made national and international headlines.   The situation is complex because the Wet’suwet’en nation never signed a treaty with Canada, so their territory is neither ceded nor even formally acknowledged by Canada. “What I see is a long history of the Canadian government doing its best to avoid acknowledging the existence of other systems of government,” Gordon Christie, a scholar of indigenous law at the University of British Columbia, told The Guardian. TransCanada inked agreements with elected officials from First Nations tribes along the route, the company maintains that it has conducted extensive consultation with First Nations. But at least five Wet’suwet’en chiefs oppose the project.

9 Things You Need to Know About the Pipeline Blockade in B.C.- The Unist'ot'en blockade is on a forest service road about 120 kilometers southwest of Smithers in Unist'ot'en territory at the Morice River Bridge. Two natural gas pipelines are to cross the bridge to serve LNG terminals in Kitimat. Unist'ot'en is a clan within the Wet'suwet'en Nation.  Wet'suwet'en hereditary chiefs claim title to the land, based on their pre-Confederation occupation and the fact that they've never signed a treaty. Their claim has not been proven in court.  The gated checkpoint is meant to control access to their traditional territory. A protocol for entry, based on principles of free, prior and informed consent, is publicly available. While the first checkpoint was built by the Unist'ot'en clan, all the hereditary chiefs of the Wet'suwet'en Nation have affirmed that their consent is required prior to any development.  TransCanada's Coastal GasLink pipeline will carry natural gas from Dawson Creek to Kitimat. It's in the early construction phase. The proposed Pacific Trail pipeline, run by Chevron, proposes to transport natural gas from Summit Lake to Kitimat for conversion to LNG. This pipeline received an environmental assessment certificate, but the investment agreement has yet to be finalized. The Unist'ot'en Camp was established on April 1, 2009. Since then, annual work camps have added a cabin, healing lodge, pit house and bunkhouse for visitors. The camp is used year-round for healing retreats, culture camps and living. Coastal GasLink applied for an injunction in November 2018 because workers have been unable to cross the checkpoint to start clearing the pipeline route. The B.C. Supreme Court issued a temporary injunction in December, prohibiting anyone from blocking the bridge.  It's in the news now because not only did Unist'ot'en camp refuse to take down the checkpoint, but their neighboring clan, Gidimt'en, established a second checkpoint. (The injunction was expanded on Jan. 4 to include that checkpoint.) Throngs of people are traveling to join the camp in solidarity, and on Jan. 7 the Royal Canadian Mounted Police mobilized to enforce the injunction. Rallies were planned in more than 30 cities around the world.. On Jan. 7, RCMP tactical teams began to dismantle the Gidimt'en checkpoint. On the evening of Jan. 9, RCMP reported 14 arrests of people who refused to comply with the court order. The individuals were taken to Houston, B.C.  By the night of Jan. 7 the RCMP had breached the Gidimt'en blockade but had not reached the Unist'ot'en blockade or camp.

 Canada's Crude Oil Production Cuts Are Unsustainable - In an attempt to combat a ballooning oil glut and dramatically plummeting prices, the premier of Alberta Rachel Notley introduced an unprecedented measure at the beginning of December when she is mandating that oil companies in her province cut production. This directive was particularly surprising in the context of Canada’s free market economy, where oil production is rarely so directly regulated. Canada’s recent oil glut woes are not due to a lack of demand, but rather a severe lack of pipeline infrastructure. There is plenty of demand, and more than enough supply, but no way to get the oil flowing where it needs to go. Canada’s pipelines are running at maximum capacity, storage facilities are filled to bursting, and the pipeline bottleneck has only continued to worsen. Now, in an effort to alleviate the struggling industry, Alberta’s oil production has been cut 8.7 percent according to the mandate set by the province’s government under Rachel Notley with the objective of cutting out around 325,000 barrels per day from the Canadian market.Even before the government stepped in, some private oil companies had already self-imposed production caps in order to combat the ever-expanding glut and bottomed-out oil prices. Cenovus Energy, Canadian Natural Resource, Devon Energy, Athabasca Oil, and others announced curtailments that totaled around 140,000 barrels a day and Cenovus Energy, one of Canada’s major producers, even went so far as to plead with the government to impose production caps late last year. So far, the government-imposed productive caps have been extremely successful. In October Canadian oil prices were so depressed that the Canadian benchmark oil Western Canadian Select (WCS) was trading at a whopping $50 per barrel less than United States benchmark oil West Texas Intermediate (WTI). now, in the wake of production cuts, the price gap between WCS and WTI has diminished by a dramatic margin to a difference of just under $13 per barrel.

Heavy Crude: From Glut To Shortage -Just a few months ago Canadian heavy crude oil producers were sending their product to storage amid a painfully deep price discount to West Texas Intermediate that ate into their margins. Chinese refiners took advantage of the cheap Canadian crude and stocked up as well while it was cheap. Now, some are worrying about a shortage of heavy crude that would interfere with the operations of Gulf Coast refineries that process more than 50 percent of the world’s heavy crude oil.Bloomberg reports some heavy crude grades such as Heavy Louisiana Sweet are already trading at a premium to lighter and typically more expensive grades because of this concern, which seems like it has further to grow. Others are shrinking their discount to Brent and WTI.In December, Alberta’s Premier Rachel Notley ordered a crude oil production cut in the province of 325,000 bpd to clear up stockpiles and prop up the price of the local benchmark. This worked even before the cuts entered into effect, which was at the beginning of this month, but it also coincided with OPEC’s latest production cut agreement. More notably, it coincided with Saudi Arabia’s early production cut start. “Historically, when the Saudis have cut output, it’s heavy and medium crude,” a senior analyst from consultancy Turner Mason & Co. told Bloomberg’s Robert Tuttle and Sheela Toben. This means lower heavy crude production in Canada has combined with the consistent decline in Venezuelan oil output, unlikely to be reversed in the observable future, and now with expected lower heavy and medium crude production from Saudi Arabia. No wonder prices are spiking.

Canadian Oil Grades Weaken-- Prices for Canadian oil fell relative to U.S. futures as Alberta Premier Rachel Notley expressed hope her government would be able to back off mandatory production curtailments in April. Heavy Western Canadian Select’s discount to West Texas Intermediate futures grew for a second day, widening 35 cents to $7.85 a barrel, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Edmonton Mixed Sweet’s discount widened 75 cents to $3.25 a barrel and synthetic crude, a light oil produced in an upgrader from oil sands bitumen, traded at a 15 cent discount to futures versus a 60 cent premium Monday. The original plan was to "take the foot off the gas, as it were, on the curtailment as we move out of winter production into April," Notley told reporters in Calgary Tuesday. "We are still hopeful" that plan can be followed, she said. Prices surged in December after the Alberta government announced that oil producers in the province would together have to cut output by 325,000 barrels a day starting this month and then extending the same volume of cuts into February. The curtailments were announced to alleviate a local glut caused by rising production meeting a shortage of export pipelines. Western Canadian Select’s discount to futures shrank to $6.95 a barrel last Friday, the narrowest in almost 10 years, from as wide as $50 a barrel in October, the widest in at least 10 years.

Mexico City pipeline hit by 'sabotage' amid crackdown on fuel theft  (Reuters) - A major fuel pipeline that supplies Mexico City remained closed after two ruptures in a single day, the president said on Friday, as the government works to stem shortages that have frustrated motorists and triggered economic risks.  President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s offensive against fuel robbers marks the leftist’s first attempt to tackle entrenched corruption since taking office on Dec. 1. Criminal groups have tapped pipelines and stolen tanker trucks carrying diesel and gasoline in the oil-producing country for years, costing the government billions of dollars. The government will assign 8,300 police and 1,400 security vehicles over the next 48 hours to safeguard fuel trucks so they can deliver to gas stations, said Mexico’s National Chamber of Freight Transport (CANACAR). A key pipeline running from the port of Tuxpan in the Gulf coast state of Veracruz to Mexico City was shut down on Thursday night and repairs were underway, Lopez Obrador said on Friday. The pipeline was hit at daybreak on Thursday and repaired, only to suffer another rupture at 11 p.m., he said. “There’s sabotage,” he said. “Let’s see who gets tired first.” The series of disruptions to the pipeline in recent days had caused shortfalls in supply for Mexico City and surrounding states. Cars lined up by the dozen at stations throughout the capital on Friday, many before dawn, fearing that the shortages that fanned into the megacity this week from nearby states could persist. Local television showed angry protesters blocking a major roadway in Mexico City’s Iztapalapa neighborhood. The head of Mexico’s central bank said on Thursday that the economy and inflation rate could be negatively affected if fuel distribution problems persist.

'Zero coordination': Mexico's war on fuel theft risks economic chaos (Reuters) - Conceived as a bold plan to attack corruption, a crackdown by Mexico’s new president on rampant fuel theft has turned into a battle to prevent economic chaos after state governments, businesses and consumers were caught out by the decision. Eager to purge a prominent stain on Mexico’s reputation, President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador on Dec. 27 unveiled a plan to increase military protection of oil installations and began cutting supply from pipelines that have been bled for years by thieves. So far, the result has been more than a week of severe fuel shortages, shuttered gas stations and lines of motorists snaking around city blocks waiting hours to fill their tanks. The 65-year-old leftist, who took office on Dec. 1, will score a major victory if he can eradicate the parallel fuel distribution network which the government says has been run largely with the connivance of corrupt employees inside state oil firm Pemex [PEMX.UL]. Last year alone, the theft was worth $3 billion, according to government figures. But the pipeline shutdowns, which Lopez Obrador says were drawn up in his early morning security cabinet meetings during December, blindsided Mexicans when gas stations started to run dry in some of the country’s largest cities. Officials in three affected states told Reuters they were not warned in advance about the supply cuts. “There was zero coordination,” said Alejandro Guzman, head of economic development in the government of Jalisco, home to the country’s second-biggest city, Guadalajara. “We started to notice when the gas stations began closing.” He estimated only a quarter of gas stations in the western half of Guadalajara had fuel during the past week. Still, once the shortages became apparent, Pemex’s new management started to work well with the state to try to address the problem, he said.

 Mexican pipeline explosion kills at least 20- At least 20 people were killed and 54 were injured on Friday when a pipeline ruptured by suspected fuel thieves exploded in central Mexico as dozens of people tried to fill up containers, state and federal authorities said. Mexican television footage showed flames leaping into the night sky in the municipality of Tlahuelilpan, in Hidalgo state north of Mexico City, as people shouted and cried for help. “The preliminary report I’ve been passed is very serious, they’re telling me 20 people have died, charred,” Hidalgo’s Governor Omar Fayad told Mexican television. Images published on broadcaster Televisa showed people with severe burns from the blast as the government sent in ambulances and doctors to treat the victims. Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has launched a major crackdown on rampant fuel theft, which the government said cost the country more than $3 billion last year. Governor Fayad said there were 71 people injured in the blast, one of the worst in recent history in a country that has suffered hundreds of illegal ruptures to its network of oil and gas pipelines. “I urge the entire population not to be complicit in fuel theft,” Fayad said on Twitter. “Apart from being illegal, it puts your life and those of your families at risk.” The fire had yet to be extinguished, he said. The ruptured pipeline was near the Tula refinery of state oil firm Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex), which in a statement blamed the incident on an illegal tap. Separate television footage showed the pipeline gushing a fountain of fuel earlier in the day and dozens of people at the site trying to fill buckets and plastic containers. 

 At least 66 people killed, dozens injured in Mexico gasoline pipeline explosion – At least 66 people were killed in central Mexico after a ruptured gasoline pipeline blew up Friday evening, the governor of the state of Hidalgo told reporters Saturday. Gov. Omar Fayad said at least 76 others were injured after an explosion in Tlahuelilpan, a town more 120 kilometers (about 80 miles) north of Mexico City. State oil company Pemex said an investigation into the cause of the blast was under way. The company initially had said the explosion was caused by illegal taps in the pipeline, and Fayad called on the community not to steal gasoline. Residents who live in the immediate vicinity of the pipeline, which runs from the cities of Tuxpan to Tula, have been evacuated, Pemex said. The fire resulting from the pipeline explosion has been extinguished, Mexican Secretary of Public Security Alfonso Durazo said on Twitter, and rescue teams have begun to recover bodies. Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador visited Tlahuelilpan and met with officials at a command center. Pemex said the explosion would not affect gasoline distribution in Mexico City. The explosion comes as gas stations in several Mexican states and the country’s capital have been running dry for nearly two weeks. The López Obrador administration closed key pipelines in an effort to crack down on fuel theft, which the Mexican leader said cost the country an estimated $3 billion last year. Drivers in Mexico have grown desperate. Family members take turns waiting in long lines for gas. Some comb social media for clues about which stations are open. Others have simply decided to leave their cars at home.

Earthquake limit at Cuadrilla's Lancashire fracking site will not be relaxed, government letter reveals - Ministers have “no intention of altering” regulations on tremors caused by fracking which have repeatedly halted work in Lancashire. Shale firm Cuadrilla has called for the relaxation of the rules, which have forced the company to pause fracking in Lancashire on a number of occasions when seismic activity above thresholds in the “traffic light system” have occurred. But a letter from Energy and Clean Growth Minister Claire Perry indicates the Government is standing firm on the regulations. Writing to Cuadrilla boss Francis Egan after he called for an urgent review of the system which halts work when tremors above 0.5 local magnitude are detected, Ms Perry reiterated her backing for shale gas. But she wrote: “While I hope the industry can thrive in the years ahead, I have always been clear that any shale developments must be safe and environmentally sound.” She said the company’s fracking plan was developed and reviewed over several months with reference to existing regulations “and at no point did you communicate that it would not be possible to proceed without a change in regulations”. She concluded: “The Government believes the current system is fit for purpose and has no intention of altering it.” A number of tremors have been detected that breach the threshold since the controversial process began at Preston New Road, Little Plumpton, on October 15. In December, a 1.5 local magnitude quake was recorded which was reportedly felt in Blackpool. Dr Doug Parr, chief scientist for Greenpeace UK, said: “Despite the minister’s warm words about fracking’s potential, the message this letter delivers is that there’s a limit to the unpopularity the Government is willing to court to sort out Cuadrilla’s problems.” He called for ministers to reverse their support for shale and speed up a clean energy infrastructure programme for the UK.

Pro-fracking roadshow announces Lancashire dates –  Lancashire For Shale is to host a series of monthly roadshow events across the county this year.The events will inform businesses about the opportunities, jobs, and investments that a successful shale gas industry can bring.Delegates who attend the two-hour long breakfast 'Exploring Shale' seminars will hear about:

• • the significance of a new UK source of gas as an alternative to increasing import dependency
• • the role gas plays in electricity generation alongside renewables, home and industry heating, and as a feedstock in chemicals manufacturing
• • the local supply chain roles that exist throughout the various stages of shale gas exploration, appraisal, development, production and, eventually, decommissioning and restoration

Lee Petts, Lancashire For Shale chairman, said the events were being produced in response to growing demand within the Lancashire business community: He said: "During the course of the last year, we have seen a significant increase in the number and types of local businesses showing an interest in the benefits that shale could bring to the area, with others wanting to know more about how they can play a role in the emerging supply chain.  "We are determined to ensure that local people and businesses benefit the most from this industry as it grows here, and our roadshow events are part of our efforts to do just that.

Campaigners' scorn for patio gas footage at Lancashire fracking site - Anti-fracking campaigners have poured scorn on shale gas firm Cuadrilla after a report revealed a video of fracked gas being burned off at its drill site included added “patio” gas. The drone video footage of flames in a flare stack was released early in November to show gas was flowing to the surface from a well drilled deep into shale rock below the Preston New Road drill site. A still from the video taken by a Cuadrilla drone looking down into the flare stack where gas is being burned But now the Environment Agency has said the volume of methane gas rising to the surface was “low” and that “a support fuel (propane) was used to assist combustion”. Frack Free Lancashire said the revelation showed they had been right to be sceptical of the video, which had come after a fortnight of minor earth tremors caused by the fracking process. But Cuadrilla said it was simply part of the process and that the initial flow tests were still being analysed. A Frack Free Lancashire spokesman said: “It would seem that Cuadrilla’s woeful PR campaign has fallen flat on its face yet again. “In November, desperate for some good news after provoking a series of earthquakes they published a video showing the flaring of gas from their first well. “Widely ridiculed at the time as it only lasted a few seconds before being seen to have petered out, we now learn from the Environment Agency that, far from being a ‘significant’ find, this gas flow was so weak that they had to add patio gas to it to make it burn. "What is clear is that things have not gone to plan for Cuadrilla who were to have been flow testing two wells in early 2019. Their investors’ lack of confidence in their statements can be seen in the slide of their parent company, AJ Lucas’s share price, which was today at a 52 week low.” 

U.S. warns German companies of possible sanctions over Russian pipeline - (Reuters) - The United States has warned German companies involved in the Russian-led Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline that they could face sanctions if they stick with the project. U.S. President Donald Trump has accused Germany of being a “captive” of Moscow because of its reliance on Russian energy and urged it to halt work on the $11 billion gas pipeline. The pipeline, which would carry gas straight to Germany under the Baltic Sea, has also been criticized in some quarters because it would deprive Ukraine of lucrative gas transit fees, potentially making Kiev more vulnerable in the future. U.S. Ambassador Richard Grenell addressed the issue in a letter sent to several companies, the U.S. Embassy said on Sunday. “The letter reminds that any company operating in the Russian energy export pipeline sector is in danger under CAATSA of U.S. sanctions,” the embassy spokesman said, adding that other European states also opposed the planned pipeline. Germany and European allies accuse Washington of using its Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) to meddle in their foreign and energy policies. Russian gas giant Gazprom (GAZP.MM) is implementing the project jointly with Western partners Uniper, Wintershall, Engie, OMV and Shell. The letter raised eyebrows within Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government. One German diplomat said the ambassador’s approach did not follow common diplomatic practice and that Berlin would address the issue in direct talks with officials in Washington. 

German Businesses Blast Trump's NordStream 2 Sanctions As Attack On EU Sovereignty - A German business group said on Friday that any attempts by the United States to stop Europe from buying Russian gas in the form of additional sanctions against Moscow would be an attack on European sovereignty, reports Reuters.  "If the U.S. decided to sanction the use of Russian gas, that would be an attack on German and European sovereignty," said Wolfgang Buechele, chairman of the German Committee on East European Economic Relations (GCEEER?) at a new year news conference. The United States has threatened sanctions against European firms involved with the Nord Stream 2 pipeline which would carry gas straight to Germany under the Baltic Sea. The project is being spearheaded by Russian state gas giant Gazprom, and has been driving a wedge between Germany and its allies over economic harm to Ukraine, which would be deprived of lucrative gas transit fees it currently charges. "I believe the Nord Stream 2 project is in the pure interests of not just Germany but also of Europe," said Buechele of the pipeline, which would branch off into Europe-wide gas transmission networks. In July, President Trump slammed Germany at a bilateral breakfast in Brussels for being a "captive of Russia because it is getting so much of its energy from Russia." "The former Chancellor of Germany is the head of the pipeline company that is supplying the gas," Trump continued. "Ultimately Germany will have almost 70 percent of their country controlled by Russia with natural gas. So you tell me, is that appropriate?" Trump asked. "It should have never been allowed to happen. So Germany is totally controlled by Russia."

It's A Gas... Germany Outraged By US Colonial Arrogance - This time the outspoken US ambassador in Berlin may have gone too far to be ignored. The German government has denounced as a “provocation” letters that the American envoy sent to companies involved in the Nord Stream 2 project warning them of possible US sanctions. The German government reportedly told the project companies to “ignore” the missives dispatched by Ambassador Richard Grenell. Nord Stream 2 is the 1,222-kilometer pipeline being laid in the Baltic seabed which will greatly increase delivery of natural gas from Russia to Germany. It will double Germany’s import of Russian gas when complete. But the Trump administration has repeatedly voiced its objection to the project, claiming that it will give Moscow undue political leverage over Europe. Trump has warned of sanctions on participating companies, which include German and Austrian firms. The flagrant ulterior agenda is seen as the US trying to undermine German-Russian energy trade, for the purpose of selling more expensive American liquefied natural gas to Europe. So much for American free-market capitalism! Grenell’s letters to the German firms – received at the weekend – are viewed as an unprecedented threat to the nation’s conduct of private business. The US embassy denied it was a threat, saying the letters were merely stating Washington’s policy of imposing sanctions. It is but the latest furore involving the maverick envoy who has been accused in the past of violating diplomatic protocol by meddling in Germany’s domestic affairs. German media have previously blasted Grenell for seeking “regime change” in Berlin because of his open support for the anti-immigration party, Alternative for Germany (AfD). Martin Schulz, the former leader of the Social Democratic Party, was among several political figures who then demanded Grenell’s dismissal.“What this man is doing is unheard of in international diplomacy… he’s behaving like a colonial officer of the far-right,” said Schulz. He added a fair point by noting: “If a German ambassador were to say in Washington that he was there to boost the Democrats, he would have been kicked out immediately.”

Worries for LNG as prices slip amid record North Asia imports: Clyde Russell (Reuters) - The spot price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Asia has completely missed its usual winter peak, with much of the blame being laid at the door of milder-than-usual temperatures trimming demand. That sounds perfectly plausible, but doesn’t quite tally with the fact that delivered volumes into the major consuming region of Northeast Asia hit a record-high in December. A total of 20.25 million tonnes of the super-chilled fuel were delivered in December to the region, which includes the top three consumers of Japan, China and South Korea, according to vessel-tracking and port data compiled by Refinitiv. This was up 12.4 percent from the same month in 2017, adding to a 14-percent gain in shipments in November, 2018, from the same month a year earlier. It was also the most on record, eclipsing the 19.46 million tonnes from January, 2018. China was the main driver of the jump in imports, with 6.42 million tonnes arriving in December, up 27 percent from the same month in 2017. Top consumer Japan saw imports weaken, dropping by 9 percent to 7.72 million tonnes in December, whilst No.3 South Korea recorded an 11-percent increase to 4.81 million tonnes. The shipping data does show that LNG demand was strong for the first part of the northern winter, but it doesn’t yet give a picture of how the rest of the cold season will play out. It’s here that the spot pricing comes into play, and this is pointing to a weak back-end of winter. The spot price for cargoes delivered to Asia LNG-AS was $8.50 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in the week ended Jan. 11. It has been trending down since a minor early winter peak of $10.90 per mmBtu in the week to Nov. 16, and is well below the summer-high of $11.60, reached in the week to June 15. The spot price is usually for deliveries of around four to eight weeks in advance, so the current price reflects cargoes that will arrive in February. It’s worth noting that the $10.90 reached in mid-November reflected cargoes delivered in December, when demand reached an all-time high in Northeast Asia. 

In Papua New Guinea, Exxon's giant LNG project fuels frustration (Reuters) - From her red-roofed home near Papua New Guinea’s capital of Port Moresby, Isabelle Dikana Iveiri overlooks a giant plant used by Exxon Mobil Corp to liquefy billions of dollars’ worth of natural gas before it is shipped to Asian buyers. Dikana Iveiri can also see swaths of muddy shoreline, where mangroves have been felled for firewood by locals who don’t have electricity, gas, or money to buy either. The $19 billion Exxon-led PNG LNG project was supposed to be a game-changer for PNG, a vast South Pacific archipelago beset by poverty despite its wealth of natural resources. But much of the promised riches, through taxes to the government, royalties to landowners and development levies to communities, have arrived well below Exxon’s own commissioned forecasts, if at all, according to landowners, the World Bank and the PNG government. “My family has been here a long time,” said Dikana Iveiri, one of several landowners interviewed by Reuters near the PNG LNG plant. “Our royalties are not going well; they are using our land but not paying us properly,” she said referring to both Exxon, which pays the royalties and the government, which distributes them. Since gas exports began more than four years ago, Dikana Iveiri said she had received just one royalty payment in 2017. She was expecting about 10,000 kina ($2,885) based on information given to her by the government and community leaders. She said she received 600 kina. Exxon said distribution of royalties and benefits to the LNG plant site landowners started in 2017. Cash payments to individual landowners would depend on how many landowners were in a precinct and were just one of the benefits communities received, Exxon said. The project employs nearly 2,600 workers, 82 percent of whom are Papua New Guinean and Exxon said it has invested $360 million to build infrastructure and pay for training and social programs. 

Seismic Blasting Approved in the Great Australian Bight, Posing 'Lethal Threat' to Marine Life - Australia's petroleum regulator granted permission for seismic blasting in the Great Australian Bight, sparking fierce outcry from environmentalists over its threat to the area's marine life, whihc include endangered blue and southern right whales.  On Monday, the National Offshore Petroleum Safety and Environmental Management Authority (NOPSEMA) gave the green light to oil and gas exploration services company PGS Australia's application for seismic surveys off the coast of South Australia's Kangaroo Island and Eyre Peninsula between Sept. 1 and Nov. 30 this year. During the survey process, loud, continuous and far-reaching soundwaves are blasted onto the bottom in search of oil or gas reserves.This noise can damage the hearing and potentially disorientate and kill marine life, displace fish, devastate zooplankton and cause whales to beach. Blasting can also impact commercial and recreational fishing by decreasing catch rates."Seismic blasting has a devastating impact on marine life. It has been likened to being next to an exploding grenade and these deafening blasts will detonate every ten seconds, 24 hours a day, for more than 90 days,"Greenpeace Australia Pacific senior campaigner Nathaniel Pelle said in an online statement.Seismic testing is the first step to offshore oil and gas exploration and development. "The only reason to conduct seismic survey is to find locations to drill for oil, putting coastlines at further risk from an oil spill," Pelle said.

Locals say ‘frack off’ -The application by Rhino Oil and Gas Exploration South Africa received a “resounding no” from residents, farmers and business owners for its application to deploy an aircraft to survey a stretch of land across the KwaZulu-Natal midlands and the Free State. That is according to a scoping report by SLR Consulting for the Rhino Oil and Gas application. Rhino Oil and Gas, according to the scoping report, is searching for oil, gas, condensate, coal bed methane, helium and biogenic gas. The scenic beauty of the Drakensberg could be destroyed if the international minerals exploration company is given the green light to survey some one million hectares of land with a view to extracting resources. The proposal has received about 400 written submissions from concerned members of the public, who believe granting this application would give Rhino Oil and Gas “blanket authorisation” for future hydraulic fracturing — or fracking — which is harmful to the environment. The scoping report noted that Rhino Oil and Gas applied to fly the aircraft over 1 006 698 hectares of land, which covers some 6 000 properties. The report describes the area as having “strategic water source areas” for catchment areas that supply water to Gauteng. The report also said the Drakensberg area was “known for its scenic beauty” and the overall area was “highly diverse” and attracted tourism which drove the local economy. SLR Consulting and Rhino Oil and Gas held community meetings across the Midlands last year to air concerns by interested parties.

 South Sudan pipeline leaking two barrels an hour - Corroded pipeline infrastructure has contributed to a crude oil leak in South Sudan’s Houdi area, in the Nile River state.In a statement released on Saturday, Sudan’s oil and gas Ministry said the leak is estimated at around two barrels per hour, noting that the affected area did not exceed 200m.The statement pointed out that technical teams are working to repair the oil pipeline, which transports South Sudanese oil to Port Sudan, in the east of the country.The Ministry said the situation is under control, adding that “the oil leak has already been contained by reducing the pressure until the urgent maintenance is completed.” The 1,600 km pipeline, which pumps 150,000 barrels per day (bpd), has a total pumping capacity of 450,000 bpd.

Tanker oil spill frequency in decline despite spikes in volume - The average number of tanker oil spills continues to decline despite some individual incidents increasing the volume of spilled oil. The frequency of oil spills from tankers continued to decline in 2018 according to statistics released by the International Tanker Owners' Pollution Federation (ITOPF).The oil spills recorded by ITOPF include those from tankers -- including combined carriers, FPSOs and barges -- but it did not include oil spills caused by acts of war. Spills are recorded as small (< 7 tonnes), medium (7 to 700 tonnes), and large (>700 tonnes).In the ITOPF analysis, the average number of oil spills recorded as seven tonnes or greater has steadily been declining over the last 50 years to around six per year, but one-off incidents like Sanchi in 2018 can create a spike in the statistics (see chart).According to ITOPF, the estimated total amount of oil lost to the environment through tanker incidents in 2018 was approximately 116,000 tonnes, the majority of which can be attributed to the Sanchi incident, a spill of non-persistent oil with what some experts say is a significantly lower environmental impacts compared to crude oil. In 2018, three spills of more than 700 tonnes were reported. ITOPF attended two of these incidents to provide technical advice, both in East Asia.

China's 2018 crude oil imports rise 10% to 9.28 mil b/d - — China's crude imports in December rose 29.9% year on year to an average 10.35 million b/d as independent refiners rushed to use their import quotas, lifting imports by Asia's biggest oil consumer in 2018 to 9.28 million b/d, up 10.1%. December and November were the only two months when import volumes topped 10 million b/d mark, with December down 1.2% lower than the record high of 10.48 million b/d in November, General Administration of Customs data showed. Analysts said imports in 2019 were likely to rise but the rate would slow because of a high base in 2018. "For the year as a whole, China's crude oil imports are set to rise from 2018 levels to accommodate the incoming new refineries while meeting the continuously rising oil demand, albeit at a lower rate than before," Kang Wu, head of S&P Global Analytics Asia, said. "We think Hengli Petrochemical, Zhejiang Petrochemical and Fuhaichuang Petroleum and Petrochemical will contribute a total of 400,000 b/d to the incremental growth," a Beijing-based trader said. "Also, while new independent quota holders for crude imports and PetroChina's newly upgraded Huabei Petrochemical and Liaoyang Petrochemical will make up most of the rest of the import growth," the trader said, adding stockpiling was also a factor that pushed up inflows. Hengli Petrochemical started one of the CDUs in the 400,000 b/d new refinery for a trial run on December 15, while the 100,000 b/d Fuhaichuang started operations on December 10. The 400,000 b/d Zhejiang Petrochemical was expected to start mid-2019. In addition, PetroChina has doubled its capacity at Huabei Petrochemical to 200,000 b/d. It also lifted Liaoyang Petrochemical's capacity 64% to 180,000 b/d last July. The independent Hualian Petrochemical was expected to be allocated about 56,000 b/d of crude oil import quotas in 2019, a market source said. Hou Rui, a consultant with Wood Mackenzie, said stockpiling had helped to boost crude oil import growth, and that both Hengli and Zhejiang were unlikely to start commercial operations until 2020. "The import growth in 2019 will be much slower than 2018 given the flat refinery run. It is up by only 1.1% year on year," Hou said. Wood Mackenzie was expecting one new SPR storage to come on stream in 2019, which would further boosting stock-building activity, Hou said. "We expect the crude imports as part of the overall supplies to increase by around 1% in 2019 due to a decline in domestic crude production," he said.

OPEC secretary general worried about trade war effect on China, India, oil demand's 'bright spots' - OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo is largely optimistic over prospects of achieving a balanced oil market in 2019. But if one thing keeps him awake at night, it's the U.S.-China trade war's potential to disrupt growth in major Asian markets that import the highest proportion of the world's crude. "We are concerned with the lingering trade disputes," Barkindo told CNBC's Hadley Gamble while at the Atlantic Council Global Energy Forum in Abu Dhabi Sunday. "The synchronized growth that we have witnessed since the last global financial crisis that has taken this long was also due largely to the growth in international trade.""Any measures that may impact or constrain trade may likely impact on growth and by extension on demand for energy. At the moment, outside the U.S., China and India remain the brightest spots in terms of demand for energy. So you can imagine our concern of the lingering negotiations."  China is the world's largest importer of crude, and its purchases constituted 18.6 percent of total crude imports in 2017. India's booming growth is set to see it overtake China as the country with the world's largest demand for oil by 2024, according to a recent report by energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie. But if a trade war severely hit China's growth, it would send shockwaves through the rest of Asia and threaten crucial sources of income for OPEC's producers. Already, U.S. tariff pressure and dampened domestic demand have started to manifest themselves in China's economic forecasts. Reuters reported last week, citing sources with knowledge of China's economic policy, that the country is planning to set a lower growth target of 6 percent to 6.5 percent in 2019, compared with last year's target of "around" 6.5 percent.

China's Surging Gasoline Exports Hurting Regional Refiners -Exports of gasoline from China are set to surge, predicts Fitch Solutions Macro Research.According to a commentary that the unit of Fitch Group emailed to Rigzone, several factors are driving the pending increase in Chinese gasoline exports in the coming quarters. The research firm attributes the anticipated growth to:

• The Chinese government’s issuance of new oil product export quotas to the state-owned firms PetroChina Co. Ltd., China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) and Sinochem Corp.
• New domestic refining capacity, with 890,000 barrels per day set to go online in 2019 alone
• An ongoing slowdown in domestic demand stemming from a slump in sales of gasoline-powered vehicles and stricter fuel efficiency measures.

“The prospect of increased gasoline exports out of China poses downside risk to regional gasoline margins and the profitability of refiners, which have fared poorly particularly towards the end of 2018,” Fitch Solutions Macro Research states in its commentary.Singapore and South Korea, whose gasoline export destinations overlap with those targeted by Chinese refiners, will be among the hardest hit by the trend, the analysis notes. To illustrate, the report indicates that the gasoline crack spread – the difference between the price of a barrel (bbl) of crude oil and that of the finished product – in Singapore has shrunk dramatically within the past year. “Gasoline cracks in Singapore slumped to an all-time low of USD1.3/bbl in December, from a peak of USD10.7/bbl in February, and are forecast to remain subdued for longer amid ample supply and persistent demand uncertainty brought on by broader global macro and financial concerns,” according to the commentary.

Iran, India Ditch Dollar In Oil Trading To Counter 'Bullying' US Sanctions - In an effort to circumvent US-imposed sanctions, India and Iran have reportedly ditched the US dollar and are trading oil in rupees. The reason becomes clear after considering the dynamics at play in the region. In mid-February last year, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani visited India, and the two countries signed nine agreements signalling a strengthening of ties. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi appeared to celebrate the growing relationship, stating that it was “a matter of great pleasure” for India that an Iranian president came to India “after a gap of 10 years.”Fast-forward a few months later, and then-UN ambassador Nikki Haley was bluntly telling India that they should rethink their relationship with Tehran.Donald Trump’s decision to rip up the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) last year, also known as the Iranian nuclear accord, was a particularly significant blow to Iran-India relations. At the time the JCPOA was formulated, Indian officials believed the deal to be the “best deal available.” After the JCPOA’s implementation in 2016, exports of Iranian oil to India increased by more than 110 percent.Maybe the issue isn’t always that Washington wants to contain its rivals in the Middle East and Asia, but perhaps there is a chance that it also wants to keep a lid on its so-called allies as well. Right now, India is the third largest oil consumer in the world, and is expected to become the largest by the year 2040. As its domestic reserves are not meeting the needs of its rapidly expanding economy, India has been importing 80 percent of its oil supply from overseas, including and especially Iran.Prior to Washington’s Iran-sanctions regime, Iran was India’s third largest supplier of crude oil (it is now about sixth place). It is no surprise therefore, that India’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson responded by saying that Haley had “her views, and our views on Iran are very clear.”He also warned that India would “take all necessary steps, including engagement with relevant stakeholders to ensure our energy security.” It does seem like the days of foreign states being bullied into adopting a dangerous foreign policy are over. If Washington has any doubt about this, they need only turn to this exclusive Reuters report which revealed that India had begun paying Iran for its oil in rupees, according to a senior bank official, under the guise of a six-month waiver which was given to seven other countries (including China). According to the report, in a previous round of US-imposed sanctions, India settled approximately half of oil payments in rupees and the remainder in euros. However, this time around, all payments are to be made in rupees.

Saudi Arabia to set up $10 billion oil refinery in Pakistan (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia plans to set up a $10 billion oil refinery in Pakistan’s deepwater port of Gwadar, the Saudi energy minister said on Saturday, speaking at the Indian Ocean port that is being developed with the help of China. Pakistan wants to attract investment and other financial support to tackle a soaring current account deficit caused partly by rising oil prices. Last year, Saudi Arabia offered Pakistan a $6 billion package that included help to finance crude imports. “Saudi Arabia wants to make Pakistan’s economic development stable through establishing an oil refinery and partnership with Pakistan in the China Pakistan Economic Corridor,” Saudi Energy Khalid al-Falih told reporters in Gwadar. He said Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman would visit Pakistan in February to sign the agreement. The minister added that Saudi Arabia would also invest in other sectors. Beijing has pledged $60 billion as part of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) that involves building power stations, major highways, new and upgraded railways and higher capacity ports, to help turn Pakistan into a major overland route linking western China to the world. “With setting up of an oil refinery in Gwadar, Saudi Arabia will become an important partner in CPEC,” Pakistan Petroleum Minister Ghulam Sarwar Khan said. The Saudi news agency SPA earlier reported that Falih met Pakistan’s petroleum minister and Maritime Affairs Minister Ali Zaidi in Gwadar to discuss cooperation in refining, petrochemicals, mining and renewable energy. It said Falih would finalize arrangements ahead of signing memorandums of understanding.

Analysis: Pakistan, Saudi Arabia in talks to develop $10 bil oil refinery in Gwadar— Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are in talks to develop a 200,000-300,000 b/d oil refinery in Balochistan's Gwadar district for $10 billion -- a move that will help alleviate Pakistan's trade deficit, mounting foreign debt, and depleting foreign exchange reserves. The agreement is due to be signed in February, coinciding with an official visit by crown prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammad Bin Salman to Pakistan, and construction is set to commence by year end, said officials with the ministry of petroleum this week. The project, led by state-owned Saudi Aramco, will be Saudi Arabia's biggest investment in the south Asian country, Pakistani Petroleum Minister Ghulam Sarwar Khan said, and will add to an investment boom in Pakistan's energy sector, particularly from China and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabian companies have been looking to expand trade with their Pakistani counterparts, and invest in the country's mining, refining, petrochemicals and renewables such as solar and wind power generation, officials said. Several agreements will be signed within weeks, including power and petrochemical projects, said Haroon Sharif, Chairman with Pakistan's Board of Investment. Saudi Arabia has also approved financial assistance to Pakistan worth $3 billion, of which $2 billion have been paid to help Pakistan shore up its foreign exchange reserves, Pakistan Finance Minister Asad Umar had said in October 2018. It has also approved the establishment of an oil credit system to facilitate the deferral of oil payments worth $3 billion, an official of the ministry of finance from Islamabad said January 14. "Saudi Arabia wants to stabilize Pakistan's economic development through an oil refinery and partner with Pakistan as it gears up for the China Pakistan Economic Corridor," Saudi Arabia's Minister of Energy and the Chairman of the Board of Saudi Aramco Eng. Khalid A Al-Falih told reporters in Gwadar January 12, during a visit to the area allocated for the refinery. Beijing has pledged $60 billion as part of the CPEC, which involves a collection of infrastructure projects, including power stations, highways, railways and ports, to help turn Pakistan into a major overland route linking western China to the international markets. Around 85% of Pakistan's petroleum consumption of 22 million mt/year is currently being met via imports. Since 2015, an increasing share of Pakistan's gas consumption is also being met via LNG imports, which are set to hit nearly 16 million mt/year by 2024, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics. .

Saudi energy minister: We'd work with anyone interested in balancing the oil market -- Saudi Arabia's energy minister said Sunday he's positive OPEC and partnered nations will meet their production cut commitments to balance oil markets in 2019, despite what he described as a slower than anticipated pace by some. "We've already done it, we've done enough," Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih told CNBC on Sunday inAbu Dhabi, when asked what OPEC's largest producer would do to balance markets this year. "Not only the kingdom but other countries, we've heard from the Emirates, I've talked repeatedly to my colleagues in Iraq, they've already taken action," he told CNBC's Hadley Gamble. He then mentioned the performance of the largest non-OPEC producer that's partnered with the cartel on cuts: "Russia has started, slower than I'd like, but they've started, and I am sure as they did as in 2017 they'll catch up and be a positive contributor to re-balancing the market." OPEC members, along with several other countries, in December agreed on output cuts totaling 1.2 million barrels per day in order to stem a sinking market and support their own export-dependent economies. "OPEC plus" refers to the group's cooperation with the non-OPEC producers like Russia and other former Soviet states, as well as Mexico. Russia was more reluctant to cut its output, as its growth is heavily dependent on robust crude exports.  Moscow in December said it would cut production by 50,000 to 60,000 barrels a day in January, while Saudi pledged a cut of 900,000 barrels. Earlier Sunday, al-Falih told CNBC that his country is willing to work with all parties to balance the crude market in 2019, and that could include coordinating with U.S. President Donald Trump. Asked if he would work with Trump, al-Falih replied, "We will work with all interested producers who want to bring stability to the market ... OPEC plus and anybody else who would like to do it with us."

Fund managers neutral on crude and fuel outlook: Kemp (Reuters) - Hedge fund managers show signs of having completed their recent sale of crude and refined fuels, with positions edging up slightly in the first week of the new year, amid hopes a recession can be averted. Oil prices have bounced off their recent lows, the U.S. dollar has weakened against most other major currencies and expectations of a trade deal between the United States and China are rising. Portfolio managers raised their net long position in ICE Brent crude futures and options by 6 million barrels to 158 million barrels in the week to Jan. 8. Funds also boosted their net long position in European gasoil by 3 million barrels to a total of 5 million barrels, according to exchange data. Net long positions in Brent and gasoil remain close to multi-year lows and increases since the start of the year have been very small. But the heavy fund selling in crude and refined fuels reported during the fourth quarter appears to have ended, at least for now (https://tmsnrt.rs/2HcppoW ). The completion of fund sales has been enough to help oil prices bounce off their recent lows as at least a few short positions have been covered. Fund managers have essentially squared their positions in crude and fuels and are remaining on the sidelines until the economic outlook becomes clearer. 

Oil prices expected to stay anchored around $65-70 through 2023: Kemp (Reuters) - Oil prices are expected to oscillate close to current levels well into the next decade, averaging around $65-70 per barrel through 2023, according to an annual survey of energy professionals conducted by Reuters. Despite the recent slump in oil prices, forecasts have edged down by less than $5 per barrel compared with the last annual survey conducted at the start of 2018 and have changed little over the last three years. Long-term expectations for the average price of Brent crude remain anchored around $70 per barrel, close to the $72 average realised in 2018 (https://tmsnrt.rs/2HebsXA ). The results are based on the responses from just over 1,000 energy market professionals to a poll conducted between Jan. 8 and Jan. 11. Brent prices in 2019 are expected to average $65 per barrel, unchanged from surveys in 2016, 2017 and 2018. In 2020, Brent is also expected to average $65 per barrel, revised down by $5 or less compared with prior surveys. Far fewer respondents now see any risk of prices spiking to $100 or more by the end of the decade as a surge in U.S. shale output has eased fears of supply shortages. The proportion of respondents expecting prices to average more than $90 in 2020 has fallen to just 3 percent this year, from 13 percent at the time of the 2016 survey. By 2023, prices are still expected to average $70, with most forecasts between $60 and $80, which suggests most energy professionals think there will be enough production developed at this level to meet consumption growth. Among survey respondents, 26 percent are involved directly in oil and gas production (exploration, drilling, production, refining, marketing and field services). Most of the rest work in banking and finance (18 percent), research (9 percent), professional services (9 percent), hedge funds (8 percent) and physical commodity trading (6 percent). The results from respondents involved directly in the oil and gas industry were similar to those in other sectors. 

Trump administration still might let Iran export oil, and that could lower prices -- The Trump administration is leaving itself wiggle room to continue allowing Iran to export oil, potentially setting up another catalyst for lower crude prices later this year.The administration's special representative for Iran, Brian Hook, last weekend refused to say with certainty whether the White House will enforce sanctions more strictly on the Islamic Republic's oil exports. Instead, he left the door open to extending exemptions that have allowed some of Iran's biggest customers to continue importing its crude.The administration's decision in November to grant sanctions waivers to eight countries, including China and India, surprised the market and contributed to a three-month collapse in crude oil prices.  Donald Trump withdrew from a nuclear accord with Iran in May and restored sanctions on the country's energy industry in November. The administration wants Iran to stop testing ballistic missiles, end its support for militant groups and accept tougher limits on its nuclear program.To be sure, Hook is maintaining the administration's message of "maximum pressure" on Iran and reiterating its goal of driving Iran's oil exports down to zero."We are not looking to grant any waivers or exceptions to the import of Iranian crude," Hook said during a panel at the Atlantic Council's 2019 Global Energy Forum in Abu Dhabi last weekend.However, pressed by CNBC's Hadley Gamble on whether the administration would extend the waivers, Hook said he could not answer that question yet."All I can say is that we believe that ... when we have a better-supplied oil market, then that puts us in a much better climate to accelerate the path to zero," he said.Hook's remarks suggest that the administration's decision will in part depend on the cost of crude when the six-month waivers expire around the start of May."I think that this administration made clear what some of us have said for some time, namely, that there is a relationship between the oil price level and the implementation of sanctions," said Michael Cohen, head of energy markets research at Barclays. Cohen has previously written that Brent crude prices below $60 a barrel will embolden the Trump administration to apply sanctions more strictly, putting pressure on buyers to cut off imports from Iran. On the other hand, a spike back above $80 likely would force the administration to allow significant volumes of Iranian crude to hit the market.

Oil prices pressured by concerns about China slowdown  - Oil prices pared early losses on Monday, but remained under pressure after data showed weakening imports and exports in China, the world's second-largest oil consumer, raising the prospect of a slowdown in fuel demand. China's exports fell by the most in two years in December while imports contracted, official figures showed, pointing to further weakness in what is also the world's second-largest economy.Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell 10 cents to $60.28 a barrel by 10:34 a.m. ET (1534 GMT), trading as low as $59.37 intraday. U.S. crude rose 6 cents to $51.65."Both imports and exports disappointed expectations and are set to revive fears about a global growth slowdown," said Norbert Ruecker, head of macro and commodity research at Swiss bank Julius Baer.Crude gave up an earlier gain following the release on Monday of the Chinese figures, the latest to point to an economic slowdown since the second half of 2018. Asian stock markets also slipped and European equities fell in early trade."Oil prices are getting weighted down by the prospects of weaker economic growth in China," Stephen Innes of futures brokerage Oanda said in a report."This data drives home just how negative of an impact trade war is having on the Chinese and perhaps global economy."Despite concern about the outlook, there is little sign that Chinese oil demand has weakened yet. China's crude imports in December surged nearly 30 percent from a year earlier, Reuters calculations of customs data showed. Oil is drawing support from supply cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC allies, including Russia.

Oil falls 1 percent on concerns about China slowdown (Reuters) - Oil prices fell about 1 percent on Monday, pressured by data showing weakening imports and exports in China that raised new worries about a global economic slowdown hurting crude demand. Brent crude futures fell 61 cents to $59.87 a barrel by 12:54 p.m. EST (1754 GMT), trading as low as $59.27 intraday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 36 cents to $51.23 a barrel, after sinking to a session low earlier of $50.43. Data out of China spurred fresh concerns about weakness in the global economy. China’s exports fell by the most in two years in December while imports contracted, official figures showed. “Oil prices are getting weighted down by the prospects of weaker economic growth in China,” Stephen Innes of futures brokerage Oanda said in a report. “This data drives home just how negative of an impact trade war is having on the Chinese and perhaps global economy.” Despite concern about the outlook, there is little sign that Chinese oil demand has weakened yet. China’s crude imports in December surged nearly 30 percent from a year earlier, Reuters calculations of customs data showed. Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Monday that he is not worried about a global slowdown hurting oil demand as of yet. “The global economy is strong enough, I’m not too concerned. If a slowdown happens, it will be mild, shallow and short,” he told reporters in Abu Dhabi. Crude futures have rallied recently after sinking to one-and-a-half year lows reached in late December. “There’s a close proximity to $50 (for WTI),” https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil/brent-crude-oil-prices-fall-below-60-on-weak-china-trade-data-idUSKCN1P801P?il=0 “There’s a significant amount of new length in the market in crude oil and interest in keeping the market above that number.” 

Oil falls 2 pct on concerns about weakening global economy - (Reuters) - Oil prices fell more than 2 percent on Monday, taking a pause after a recent rally, pressured by data showing weakening imports and exports in China that raised new worries about a global economic slowdown hurting crude demand. Brent crude futures lost $1.49, or 2.5 percent, to settle at $58.99 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell $1.08 to settle at $50.51 a barrel, a 2.1 percent loss. Prices have gained more than 18 percent since sinking to one-and-a-half year lows in late December. “We are thus far viewing today’s price pullback as a deserved correction,” Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates, said in a note. “Some of the weakness appeared to develop in concert with a selloff in the equities while some profit-taking was also apparent given the fact that domestic fundamentals have yet to post improvement this year.” Technology shares pulled Wall Street lower, after an unexpected drop in China’s exports in December re-ignited worries over an global economic slowdown. The data out of China also weighed on oil prices. China’s exports fell by the most in two years in December while imports contracted, official figures showed. “Oil prices are getting weighted down by the prospects of weaker economic growth in China,” Stephen Innes of futures brokerage Oanda said in a report. “This data drives home just how negative of an impact trade war is having on the Chinese and perhaps global economy.” Despite concern about the outlook, there is little sign that Chinese oil demand has weakened yet. China’s crude imports in December surged nearly 30 percent from a year earlier, Reuters calculations of customs data showed. Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Monday that he is not worried about a global slowdown hurting oil demand as of yet. “The global economy is strong enough, I’m not too concerned. If a slowdown happens, it will be mild, shallow and short,” he told reporters in Abu Dhabi.

Oil Halts Drop Near $51 -- Oil halted its retreat near $51 a barrel on forecasts for a drop in U.S. inventories and as a rebound in equities signaled investor interest in risk assets was improving. Futures in New York climbed as much as 1.6 percent after dropping 4 percent over the past two sessions. American crude stockpiles probably fell for the sixth time in seven weeks, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts before Energy Information Administration data due Wednesday. Stocks across Asia climbed and U.S. index futures rebounded as markets recovered from the impact of weak economic data in Europe and China Monday. While oil is resuming an advance that took it into a bull market last week, it’s still over 30 percent below a four-year high in October. China’s weakest trade data since 2016 stoked concerns over the impact of an ongoing trade war with the U.S. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih sought to reassure investors in recent days, saying the OPEC+ coalition that’s pursuing output cuts to balance the market will do more if it needs to. “Oil will likely to stay within a range of $49 to $55 a barrel as long as there are fresh elements that will either drive prices up or down,” Sungchil Will Yun, a commodities analyst at HI Investment & Futures Corp., said by phone. “Investors are now less worried about dwindling demand and negative economic data, spurred by the U.S.-China trade spat because they’ve largely been reflected in crude prices already.” West Texas Intermediate for February delivery climbed as much as 81 cents to $51.32 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and traded at $51.15 at 7:32 a.m. in London. It dropped 2.1 percent on Monday, falling for a second straight session. Brent for March settlement gained 67 cents to $59.66 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract closed 2.5 percent lower on Monday. The global benchmark traded at a premium of $8.22 a barrel to WTI for the same month. In the U.S., nationwide stockpiles probably declined 2.5 million barrels last week, according to a median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. If confirmed by government data on Wednesday, that will mean inventory levels are staying near their lowest since early November. 

Oil Rises As OPEC Cuts Take Effect - Despite troubling economic data from China which weighed on oil on Monday, improving fundamentals are beginning to push crude prices upward. Saudi oil minister Khalid al-Falih told CNBC on Sunday that Russia’s oil production cuts are “slower than I’d like,” although he added that the OPEC+ coalition would succeed in balancing the oil market this year. “Russia has started, slower than I'd like, but they've started, and I am sure as they did as in 2017 they'll catch up and be a positive contributor to re-balancing the market,” al-Falih said. Al-Falih added that the OPEC+ cuts are on track to balance the market this year.   Oman’s oil minister Mohammed Al Rumhi told Bloomberg that the OPEC+ deal would likely eliminate the oil market supply surplus this year. “I think 1.2 million [barrels per day] would go a long way” to eliminating the inventory glut. “The real test will come in the second quarter” when seasonal demand picks up, he said. He added that the OPEC+ cuts could likely sustain $60 per barrel.  Natural gas production in the Haynesville shale in Louisiana could soon break new production records. The Haynesville added 1.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) of output in 201, and could rise by an additional 0.7 bcf/d this year, according to Rystad Energy. The increases come after years of stagnation. “We conclude that Haynesville Shale’s revival, for the second year in a row, looks sustainable. Supported by its proximity to a new LNG export terminal, gas production will continue to grow, and achieving new all-time high gas production levels should happen within a matter of months,” Rystad Energy partner Artem Abramov said.  Brian Hook, the U.S. State Department’s special representative for Iran, indicated in a Bloomberg interview that the American government would be much less accommodative with sanctions waivers when they expire in May. Hook said the U.S. had already successfully cut Iran’s oil exports from 2.7 mb/d to just 1 mb/d. “We are going to continue our path to get to zero [oil exports from Iran].” However, he hedged on when they might happen, stating that the effort to zero out Iran’s oil exports needs to be balanced against national security and economic interests.

Oil prices rise 2 percent as China signals possible fiscal stimulus - Oil prices rose more than 1 percent on Tuesday after tumbling the previous session, although a darkening economic outlook may soon weigh on growth in fuel demand. Prices fell on Monday after data showed weakening imports and exports in China, raising new worries about a global slowdown. But China's National Development and Reform Commission offered some support on Tuesday, signaling it might roll out more fiscal stimulus. Brent crude oil was up $1.14, or 1.9 percent, at $60.13 per barrel by 9:13 a.m. ET (1413 GMT), after briefly climbing above $60. The benchmark crude had fallen more than 2 percent on Monday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose $1.08, or 2.1 percent, to $51.59. But analysts said a price recovery may prove short-lived. "Any price rally is unlikely to be sustainable in the first half of the year simply because the demand for OPEC's oil is expected to be lower than the projected output from the organization," PVM Oil Associates strategist Tamas Varga said. The Middle East-dominated OPEC and allies including Russia agreed in late 2018 to cut supply to rein in a global glut. The cuts were effective from January. Further help has come from Friday's data showing the number of U.S. rigs looking for new oil production dipped to 873 in early 2019. The rig data, released on Friday, pointed to a potential dent in production growth which was at more than 2 million barrels per day last year, making the United States the world's top oil producer. This could rein in the swift rise in output from the United States, which became the world's top oil producer in 2018.

Oil rises two percent on hopes for China economic stimulus (Reuters) - Oil prices rose about 2 percent on Tuesday, along with world stock markets, supported by China's plan to introduce policies to stabilise a slowing economy, reversing the previous session's losses due to grim data in the world's second-largest economy. Brent crude was up $1.04, or 1.7 percent, at $60.03 per barrel by 12:02 p.m. EDT (1702 GMT). U.S. crude futures rose $1.23, or 2.4 percent, to $51.74 a barrel. Earlier in the session, the contract touched a session high of $52.18 a barrel. "Some of the fears about the economic slowdown in 2019 seem to have ebbed away," said Gene McGillian, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. "The market is latching on to news that suggests that the economy may be better than thought." China's National Development and Reform Commission offered some support on Tuesday, signalling it might roll out more fiscal stimulus. This countered negative sentiment from Monday when crude prices fell more than 2 percent after data showed weakening imports and exports in China. Output cuts from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers, including Russia, also have begun to reduce fears of oversupply. The group known as OPEC+ agreed in late 2018 to cut supply starting this month, seeking to rein in a global glut. The bloc and its allies set a meeting for March 17 to 18 to monitor implementation of their pact, sources told Reuters, and another on April 17 to 18 on whether to extend cuts beyond the agreed six months.

Oil rises about 3 pct on economic stability hopes - (Reuters) - Oil prices rose about 3 percent on Tuesday, along with world stock markets, supported by China's plan to introduce policies to stabilize a slowing economy, reversing the previous session's losses due to grim data in the world's second-largest economy. Brent crude rose $1.65, or 2.8 percent, to settle at $60.64 a barrel. U.S. crude futures ended $1.60, or 3.2 percent, higher at $52.11 a barrel. "Some of the fears about the economic slowdown in 2019 seem to have ebbed away," said Gene McGillian, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. "The market is latching on to news that suggests that the economy may be better than thought." China's National Development and Reform Commission offered some support on Tuesday, signaling it might roll out more fiscal stimulus. This countered negative sentiment from Monday when crude prices fell more than 2 percent after data showed weakening imports and exports in China. However, both oil benchmarks pared gains slightly in post-settlement trade after British lawmakers defeated Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit divorce deal by a crushing margin, triggering political upheaval that could lead to a disorderly exit from the European Union or even to a reversal of the 2016 decision to leave. Parliament voted 432-202 against her deal, raising economic uncertainty that weighed on markets. Fundamentally, output cuts from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers, including Russia, have begun to reduce fears of oversupply. The group, known as OPEC+, agreed in late 2018 to cut supply starting this month, seeking to rein in a global glut. OPEC+ have set a meeting for March 17 to 18 to monitor implementation of their pact, sources told Reuters, and another meeting on April 17 to 18 to decide on whether to extend cuts beyond the agreed six months. Further support has come from data showing the number of U.S. rigs drilling for new oil dipped slightly so far this year. Also, analysts in a Reuters poll, ahead of weekly industry data on Tuesday and a government report on Wednesday, expected U.S. crude stockpiles to have fallen for a second straight week.

Oil Demand to Grow Steadily in 2020s  -  Oil demand will grow steadily in the 2020s and peak in the late 2030s, according to Rystad Energy’s current long-term outlook. “In our long-term outlook we currently see oil demand growing steadily in the 2020s and peaking in the late-2030s, as we incorporate moderate technological shifts and accelerated efficiency gains that will flatten on-road transportation demand and petrochemical feedstock demand growth towards 2040,” Rystad Energy’s Chief Oil Analyst Bjornar Tonhaugen said in a statement sent to Rigzone recently. Tonhaugen warned however that in the company’s “low case”, oil demand could potentially peak ten years earlier, in 2027, “given additional demand displacement by a more rapid transportation electrification, oil-to-gas and oil-to-renewables power switching, and the integration of biofuels and bioplastics”. The Rystad Energy representative added that “even in a scenario with more rapid transportation electrification, the E&P industry still needs to make new discoveries and/or find ways to extract more oil out of existing fields to satisfy oil demand to 2040”. In the statement sent to Rigzone, Tonhaugen highlighted that Rystad Energy recently revised down its Brent estimate for 2019, 2020 and 2021 and said the company continues to “see a need for production management by OPEC+ again to balance the market in 2021”. Demand is the biggest psychological headwind for oil right now, according to Helima Croft, head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, who expressed the view in a television interview with CNBC on Monday. “I think demand right now is the biggest psychological headwind for oil. People are very concerned about the [U.S.-China] trade war. There’s still this sort of corner of the market that’s concerned about a global recession and so I think that is the biggest headwind that OPEC has to overcome in trying to stabilize the price environment,” Croft said in the interview. 

Weekly Petroleum Report -- US -- EIA -- January 16, 2019 - The EIA weekly petroleum report is scheduled to be released today. Earlier, the EIA said their reports would not be delayed due to the partial government shutdown. Link here. Weekly US petroleum report, EIA:

• US crude oil inventories decreased by 2.7 million bbls
• WTI upon the news: up 9 cents, at $52.20 
• US crude oil inventories: now at 437.1 million bbls
• US crude oil inventories: now 8% above the 5-year average -- and remember, the 5-year average continues to increase; the Saudi surge, 2014 - 2016 certainly re-set the numbers
• refiners are operating at a 94.6% capacity; trending lower
• motor gasoline inventories about 6% above the 5-year average
• distillate fuel product supplied was down almost 9% from the same period last year
• jet fuel supplied was down almost 6% compared with same four-week period last year

Now, five minutes later, the price of WTI has turned red, down four cents. Movers and shakers apparently anticipated the report. Regardless of the draw (almost 3 million bbls) the fact that crude oil in storage, on a percentage basis, has actually increased over the past few weeks, is certainly disturbing for those hoping for a bull market in oil.

WTI Dips After Huge Gasoline Build, Surge In US Production - WTI Dips After Huge Gasoline Build, Surge In US Production - WTI has dropped, popped, dumped, and jumped since last night's surprisingly small crude draw and major product builds from API, but remains around the $52 level ahead of DOE data this morning.“The Chinese are throwing everything they can" at their economy, said John Kilduff, founding partner at hedge fund Again Capital LLC.“That’s the big key to oil markets, especially when you have OPEC and Russia starting to rein in production." Saudi Arabia’s energy minister said he was sure inventories will start to “return to normal averages and this will increase confidence” in the market. DOE:

• Crude -2.683mm (-2.5mm exp)
• Cushing -743k - biggest draw since Sept 2018
• Gasoline +7.503mm
• Distillates +2.967mm

For the 3rd week in a row, gasoline (and distillates) inventories soared. However, crude stockpiles slipped slightly more than expected and Cushing inventories dipped most since Sept 2018.

Oil torn between economic slowdown concerns, OPEC-led supply cuts - Oil prices struggled for direction in choppy trade on Wednesday, under pressure from data showing growing U.S. refined product inventories and record crude production, which could undermine global efforts to support prices.Brent crude oil futures rose 38 cents to $61.02 per barrel at 11:47 a.m. ET (1647 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 2 cents at $52.09 a barrel.U.S. fuel stockpiles last week rose more than forecast and for the fourth straight week, the Energy Information Administration said, outweighing a bigger-than-expected crude drawdown.Gasoline stockpiles rose 7.5 million barrels, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 2.8 million-barrel gain. At 255.6 million barrels, gasoline stocks at the highest weekly level since February of 2017.Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, increased 3 million barrels, versus expectations for a 1.6 million-barrel rise, the data showed.Crude inventories fell 2.7 million barrels, more than double forecasts."The continued strong rise in oil product stocks is bearish and overshadows the draw in crude oil stocks," said Carsten Fritsch, senior commodities analyst at Commerzbank.The EIA also said U.S. crude production rose to a record high of 11.9 million barrels per day last week, as crude exports jumped close to record highs near 3 million bpd.  Growing U.S production and exports have weighed on oil prices. Output is expected to grow to a new recordof more than 12 million bpd this year, with U.S. turning into a net  crude exporter in late 2020, the EIA said on Tuesday.The rising output could undermine oil markets which have been receiving support from supply cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, including top exporter Saudi Arabia, and major non-OPEC producer Russia. Mounting signs of an economic slowdown across the world may also keep oil prices in check.

WTI Dips After Smaller Than Expected Crude Draw -  Oil prices rebounded from yesterday's drop (after China stimulus chatter) despite the U.S. Energy Information Administration trimming its forecast for 2019 petroleum demand slightly in a monthly report released today. “The Chinese are throwing everything they can" at their economy, “That’s the big key to oil markets, especially when you have OPEC and Russia starting to rein in production."  API:

• Crude -560k (-2.5mm exp)
• Cushing -796k - biggest draw since Sept 2018
• Gasoline +5.99mm
• Distillates +3.214mm

After massive product builds in the last two weeks, API shocked with yet another huge build in Gasoline and Distillates but a rather disappointing (for oil bulls) smaller than expected draw in crude... Overall inventories remain near November lows. WTI was hovering just above $52 ahead of the API print, but kneejerked lower on the smaller than expected crude draw

 Oil Ends Up Slightly as Record U.S. Production Offsets Crude Draws - The EIA has been forecasting 12 million barrels per day or more in U.S. production in 2019, although it hasn't said when exactly that might happen. Its latest weekly dataset shows that day might arrive faster than oil bulls feared. New York-traded West Texas Intermediate crude settled up slightly on Wednesday after the U.S. Energy Information Administration's report of a record high of 11.9 million bpd in production offset what should have been a larger rally based on an outsize weekly drop in crude stockpiles. London-traded Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, also saw choppy trading. WTI settled up 20 cents, or 0.4%, at $52.31 per barrel after falling as much as 1.6% earlier in the session. On Tuesday, it rose 3.2%. Brent, the global oil benchmark, gained 70 cents, or 1.2%, to trade at $61.45 by 2:40 PM ET (19:40 GMT) after sliding about 1% earlier. On Tuesday, Brent settled up 2.8%. The EIA reported that crude oil inventories fell by 2.68 million barrels in the week to Jan. 11 versus forecasts for a drawdown of 1.32 million barrels. In the previous week the decline was 1.7 million. Gasoline inventories rose by 7.5 million barrels, compared to expectations for a build of 2.77 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles increased by 2.97 million barrels, compared to forecasts for a gain of 1.57 million. But more than those numbers, what grabbed traders were the production figures, which grew by 200,000 bpd from the previous week to reach 11.9 million bpd last week. The weekly data set came just a day after a separate EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook that reiterated expectations for record high of more than 12 million bpd in 2019 and possibly around 13 million bpd by 2020.

 Record U.S. crude production weighs on oil prices - Oil prices fell on Thursday after U.S. crude production neared an unprecedented 12 million barrels per day and concern grew over weakening demand, particularly in light of the trade dispute between the United States and China.  International Brent crude oil futures were down 52 cents, or nearly 1 percent, at $60.80 per barrel around 10:36 a.m. ET (1536 GMT).  U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 86 cents, or 1.6 percent, to $51.45 per barrel.The price of oil has risen about 20 percent from the 18-month low registered in late December, but investors appear loath to push crude much higher without evidence that relations between Washington and Beijing are improving, analysts said."Brent needs to move past $62 before we can talk about $65," BNP Paribas head of commodities Harry Tchilingurian told the Reuters Global Oil Forum."From there, the door will be open to target $70, (if) we do not have negative news emerging around U.S.-China trade talks that caused high levels of angst and de-risking last December."Soaring U.S. crude output, which neared a record 12 million bpd in early January, is fueling some of the concern among traders and investors that growth in global supply this year will outpace demand.Along with the surge in U.S. crude output, exports from the United States are also rising, hitting a record 3.2 million bpd by the end of last year. "Crude oil exports from the U.S. have strongly increased during the last few years and the trend is expected to remain positive," shipping brokerage Banchero Costa said in a note.

Oil slides on increased U.S. output and U.S.-China trade fears (Reuters) - Oil prices fell about 2 percent on Thursday, extending recent weakness on concerns over surging U.S. crude production and slack global demand, particularly in light of the ongoing trade dispute between the United States and China. Brent crude oil futures LCOc1 were down $1.06, or 1.7 percent, to $60.26 a barrel by 11:03 a.m. EST (1603 GMT). U.S. crude futures CLc1 fell $1.00 to $51.31 a barrel, off 1.9 percent. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in its monthly market report cut its forecast for the average demand for its crude in 2019 to 30.83 million bpd, down 910,000 bpd from the 2018 average. [OPEC/M] OPEC said its output fell 751,000 barrels per day in December, suggesting it was on its way to fulfilling terms of a pact to cut production between those nations and other producers, including Russia. Even as OPEC and allied exporters cut production, however, U.S. output has surged close to 12 million bpd in the latest week, and some traders and investors are concerned that growth in global supply this year will outpace demand. “That’s going to weigh on the market at least until we get some new information,” including from OPEC, said Thomas Saal, senior vice president of INTL Hencorp Futures in Miami. Still, Saal said, investors had already expected increasing U.S. production and priced it into the market, “so that’s why prices are down a little bit and not down a lot.” U.S. output has climbed by 2.4 million bpd since January 2018 and stockpiles of crude and refined products have risen sharply, U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed. In response to the drop in price in the second half of last year, OPEC and non-members plan to cut production by a joint 1.2 million bpd this year. Oil is still about 20 percent above the lows reached in late December, but analysts said Brent has been trading in the low $60s and U.S. crude in the low $50s due to ongoing nervousness about relations between Washington and Beijing and China’s economic outlook. 

Crude Oil Settles Lower - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for February delivery lost some of its recent momentum Thursday. The front-month WTI declined 24 cents to end the day at $52.07 per barrel. The March Brent futures price also edged downward Thursday, falling 14 cents to settle at $61.18 per barrel.As Bloomberg reported earlier Thursday, investors have been weighing “surging U.S. production against output curbs pledged by some of the world’s top suppliers.” On Wednesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that domestic crude oil production was 11.9 million barrels per day (MMbpd) last week – a 200,000-bpd increase from the previous week and approximately 2.2 MMbpd higher than this time last year.EIA also stated that U.S. crude oil inventories were 437.1 million barrels at the end of last week – down 2.6 million barrels from the previous week but up 6 percent year-on-year.The price of a gallon of reformulated gasoline (RBOB) moved in the opposite direction of crude oil Thursday. The February RBOB contract gained a penny, settling at $1.43.Henry Hub natural gas futures also settled higher Thursday. The February contract rose 3 cents to end the day at $3.41. Also on Thursday, the American Petroleum Institute (API) announced that total U.S. exploratory oil and natural gas well completions were up 23 percent during the fourth quarter of 2018 compared to the corresponding period the previous year. The figure comes from API’s 2018 Quarterly Well Completion Report, Fourth Quarter.

Oil rises on OPEC output cuts, hopes of easing in US-China trade tensions - Oil prices sharply extended gains, rising with the stock market, on news that Beijing has put forward a plan to eliminate its trade surplus with the United States.The plan would see China ramp up purchases of U.S. goods over the next six years with the goal of reducing its $323 billion trade surplus last year to zero by 2024. President Donald Trump has highlighted the U.S. trade deficit with foreign countries, and the offer could appeal to the protectionist commander-in-chief.However, U.S. trade negotiators — who aim to address issues like barriers to accessing the Chinese markets and China's alleged theft of intellectual property — are skeptical of Beijing's offer, according to Bloomberg, which first reported the news.Nevertheless, international Brent crude oil futures were up $1.67, or nearly 2.7 percent, at $62.85 per barrel at 11:10 a.m. ET (1610 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose $1.68, or 3.2 percent, $53.75 per barrel. Both benchmarks are up about 4 percent this week, putting them on pace for a third consecutive week of gains following a three-month collapse in oil prices. Earlier on Monday, markets got a boost from a Wall Street Journal report that Washington is considering removing tariffs on Chinese goods to calm markets and advance trade talks.However, markets gave backs gains after the U.S. Treasury Department and United States Trade Representative denied that either agency has recommended the tactic.The ongoing trade dispute between the world's two biggest economies has raised concerns about slower global growth and weaker demand for fuel. "The most unknown question for the oil markets for 2019 is the level of demand, so oil interestingly is acting more like an equity market in the sense that it's pricing in concerns about future demand," said Tamar Essner, director of energy and utilities at Nasdaq Corporate solutions.

Oil Rises On Trade Deal Hopes - Oil prices were relatively quiet this week, bouncing around, but closed out the week on a positive note.   The IEA said in its latest Oil Market Report that “the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint.” The agency noted that while Saudi Arabia seems determined to follow through, there is “less clarity” on Russia. The agency left its demand growth forecast unchanged, arguing that while the global economy is starting to show some worrying signs, lower oil prices will also help keep demand aloft.   OPEC released its monthly Oil Market Report on Thursday, revealing a roughly 751,000 bpd decline, according to secondary sources. Saudi Arabia slashed output by 468,000 bpd, Iran lost 159,000 bpd, and Libya lost 172,000 bpd. Smaller cuts came from the UAE (-65,000 bpd) and involuntary losses from Venezuela (-33,000 bpd). The largest gain come from Iraq, which added 88,000 bpd. The monthly totals occurred before implementation of the OPEC+ agreement, which calls for cuts of 1.2 mb/d from October’s baseline.  The EIA forecasts a $61-per-barrel price for Brent for 2019, with WTI averaging $8 below Brent in the first quarter, a discount that will narrow to a smaller $4-per-barrel markdown by the fourth quarter. The agency maintained a forecast for U.S. oil production at 12.1 mb/d this year, unchanged from prior estimates even though it has lowered its pricing forecast.  U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer did not see any progress on the structural trade issues during negotiations earlier this month. The two sides will resume negotiations at the end of January.

Oil Market Report: A marathon, not a sprint - IEA - Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Following an initial burst of enthusiasm for the deal, scepticism set in, alongside worries about the global economic background. Prices fell by $10/bbl with Brent crude oil bottoming out on 24 December at just above $50/bbl. For the producers, this was unwelcome, but for consumers it provided a nice present for the holidays. In the US Gulf Coast, gasoline prices in early January averaged $1.89/gal versus the summer peak of $2.79/gal and in India, prices are about 14% below the early October peak. Recently, leading producers have restated their commitment to cut output and data show that words were transformed into actions. In December, OPEC production fell by almost 600 kb/d and Saudi Arabia has signalled that, for its part, further significant cutbacks will take place in January and beyond.  The Brent price has moved back above $60/bbl, so the answer to our question posed last month seems to be a qualified yes, at least for now. However, the journey to a balanced market will take time, and is more likely to be a marathon than a sprint. While Saudi Arabia is determined to protect its price aspirations by delivering substantial production cuts, there is less clarity with regard to its Russian partner. Data show that Russia increased crude oil production in December to a new record near 11.5 mb/d and it is unclear when it will cut and by how much. Other non-OPEC countries joining in the output deal saw higher output, including Mexico.

OPEC oil production sinks in December as Saudis cut output more than expected - Last month, OPEC struck a deal with Russia and nine other nations to keep 1.2 million barrels per day off the market starting in January. The so-called OPEC+ alliance is trying to prevent another price-crushing oil glut. The cost of crude collapsed in the final quarter of 2018, stirring memories of the punishing 2014-2016 downturn.The 14-nation OPEC got a jump on the agreement in December. Oil supplies from OPEC nations plunged by 751,000 barrels per day to nearly 31.6 million bpd, according to independent figures cited by OPEC in its monthly report.Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia was the driving force behind the headline decline. The kingdom's output plunged by 468,000 bpd to just over 10.5 million bpd last month, independent figures show. Data supplied directly by Riyadh show a 450,000 bpd drop to slightly more than 10.6 million bpd.When OPEC announced the deal, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al Falih initially said his country's output would fall to 10.7 million bpd in December from a record high 11.1 million bpd in November. The Saudis are targeting another drop to 10.2 million bpd this month, Falih has said.The pullback in OPEC production was deepened by supply disruptions in Libya and Iran.Output in Libya fell by 172,000 bpd to 928,000 bpd in December, after a group of armed protesters and aggrieved workers took over the country's largest oil field.In Iran, production dropped by another 159,000 bpd to just under 2.8 million bpd, as the nation enters a second month under wide-ranging U.S. sanctions. The Islamic Republic has gone from being OPEC's third biggest producer to its fifth largest, falling behind the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait in December.Iraq saw the biggest jump in production in the final month of the year. It's output rose 88,000 bpd to just over 4.7 million bpd. At that level, Baghdad would need to cut about 200,000 bpd in January to meet its q uota under the supply cut agreement. Iraq, OPEC's second largest producer, regularly pumped above its quota throughout the group's last round of supply cuts.

OPEC analysis shows major oil output cuts still needed to prevent stock build — OPEC said Thursday it had already slashed its crude oil output by some 750,000 b/d month on month in December, but that is only about halfway to the level of cuts needed to avoid a supply glut. OPEC's 14 members -- which no longer include Qatar, as it terminated its membership at the end of 2018-- pumped 31.58 million b/d in December, down from 32.33 million b/d in November, according to the organization's closely watched Monthly Oil Market Report. But OPEC has estimated that global demand for its crude will average 30.88 million b/d in the first half of 2019, meaning the bloc will need to cut some 700,000 b/d more if it wants to avoid a build-up of oil inventories. OPEC and its allies, including top global oil producer Russia, have aggressively targeted OECD global inventories over the last two years, instituting output quotas to bring stocks down to the five-year average. But a production surge in Saudi Arabia, Russia and other countries in the second half of 2018 has caused inventories to rise above that benchmark, prompting the 24-country OPEC/non-OPEC coalition to agree on another round of output cuts that is to last the first six months of 2019. Under the deal, OPEC agreed to shoulder some 800,000 b/d of the cuts, while Russia and the nine other non-OPEC partners committed to cut 400,000 b/d. But OPEC's analysis shows those cuts may not be enough. Refinery turnarounds in the winter will add to the challenge. However, Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih earlier this week said he was confident inventories would return to the five-year average -- which he called "the key metric for all of us to watch" -- within the six-month cut agreement. OECD inventories were 23 million barrels above the five-year average, according to OPEC's report. Saudi Arabia's crude output fell 470,000 b/d in December to average 10.55 million b/d, according to an average of the six secondary sources that OPEC uses to gage production. The kingdom, however, self-reported production of 10.64 million b/d, down 450,000 b/d month on month. That is above its quota of 10.31 million b/d under the cut agreement, but Falih has said Saudi production would come in at around 10.2 million b/d in January. Iraq's production surged to 4.71 million b/d in December, up 90,000 b/d from November, according to secondary sources. Its quota under the deal is 4.51 million b/d. The UAE, OPEC's third largest producer, pumped 3.22 million in December, down 70,000 b/d from November, but still above its quota of 3.07 million b/d. In Iran, hit by US sanctions, output plummeted 160,000 b/d month on month to 2.77 million b/d. Iran is exempt from the production-cut deal. Fellow exempt member Libya pumped 930,000 b/d, down 170,000 b/d from November, while Venezuela, also exempt, produced 1.15 million b/d, a 30,000 b/d drop, according to the report.

Here's exactly how much oil OPEC members and allied nations intend to cut in 2019 - Six weeks after agreeing to slash production, major oil producers are finally giving investors some clarity on exactly how much crude they'll take off the market.OPEC on Friday released a table laying out production quotas for each of its 14 members and the 10 allied countries participating in the deal. The two dozen nations agreed last month to slash a combined 1.2 million barrels per day in order to prevent a repeat of the oil glut that caused crude prices to tank from 2014 to 2016.However, over the following weeks, international benchmark Brent crude prices fell another 18 percent. The continued slide reportedly prompted OPEC to urge oil producers to publicly release their production quotas to boost the market's confidence in the cuts.While oil prices have risen for the last three weeks, OPEC has nevertheless decided to publish the output levels under the deal, which runs through the first six months of 2019. The so-called OPEC+ alliance meets April 17-18 to assess the impact of the cuts. Here's how much each of the countries in the deal will endeavor to keep off the market:

US Military Caught Teaching Saudi Coalition Troops How to Drop Bombs on Yemen  — Newly obtained documents revealed that the United States, despite past denials, was involved in training United Arab Emirates troops for combat in Yemen, where the UAE is fighting as part of a Saudi-led coalition, Yahoo News reported. The US Air Forces Central Command documents specifically state that units at the US’s Air Warfare Center in Al Dhafra, about 30km south of UAE capital Abu Dhabi, “advanced the UAE’s F-16 pilot training program”, Yahoo News reported late Wednesday. Those trainees were then “immediately deployed for combat operations in Yemen” between 1 January 2016 and 31 December 2017, the news outlet said. Additionally, the documents state that the US was involved in an advanced aerial combat training exercise in which American and allied pilots assisted “150 airmen … to prepare for combat ops in Yemen”, Yahoo News said. The news outlet said it obtained the documents through the Freedom of Information Act.Still, a US Central Command (CENTCOM) spokesperson, as well as a second CENTCOM official, told Yahoo News that the US does not “conduct exercises with members of the [Saudi-led coalition] to prepare for combat operations in Yemen”.The denials echoed statements made last month by General Joseph Dunford, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, who stressed that the US is “not a participant in the civil war in Yemen nor are we supporting one side or the other”, as reported at the time by US media.Still, the Yahoo News report comes amid heightened pressure on President Donald Trump’s administration to end US involvement in the war in Yemen, which has left thousands on the brink of starvation and caused a cholera outbreak.Saudi Arabia launched its military campaign in Yemen in 2015 to root out the country’s Houthi rebels, who had taken over the capital, Sanaa, and ousted the internationally recognised and Saudi-backed government of President Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi.  The US military has since provided intelligence sharing and training to the Saudi-led coalition, which includes the UAE.

Yemen’s Houthis Are Doxxing the US Troops Working With the Saudis -- In efforts to expose the criminals responsible for the ongoing genocide against Yemeni civilians, Yemeni Intelligence has started publishing the names and personal information of the US troops in charge of the Saudi command centers where airstrikes are ordered.Washington tries to keep a tight lid on the extent of its involvement in Yemen. However, US troops are actually much more active in the conflict than most Americans would expect. In fact, the United States provides intelligence and logistical support for selecting airstrikes in addition to endless weapons and bombs.New information from Yemeni Intelligence sheds light on the US troops manning the Saudi command centers where airstrikes and military operations are carried out. As part of a broader campaign to expose the people carrying out war crimes against civilians, Yemen has started exposing the personal information of these criminals.The first target is Alexander R. Fhlug from Madison, Wisconsin. Yemeni Intelligence released a broad range of photos and personal information about Fhlug including where he lives, which barber he frequents, his favorite brands and shopping habits, and his other interests. Over 39,000 people have died or sustained injuries from US-backed Saudi airstrikes and military operations — a third of which are women and children. The United States provides the bulk of precision-guided smart missiles, aircraft, training for ground troops, and intelligence support.

Iran protests to Poland over Iran-focused summit (Reuters) - Iran’s foreign ministry summoned a senior Polish diplomat to protest at Poland jointly hosting a global summit with the United States focused on the Middle East, particularly Iran, state news agency IRNA reported on Sunday. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Friday said the summit — to be held in Warsaw over Feb. 13-14 - would focus on stability and security in the Middle East, including the “important element of making sure that Iran is not a destabilizing influence”. An Iranian foreign ministry official told Poland’s charge d’affaires in Tehran that Iran saw the decision to host the meeting as a “hostile act against Iran” and warned that Tehran could reciprocate, IRNA added. “Poland’s charge d’affaires provided explanations about the conference and said it was not anti-Iran,” the agency added. “The international community has the right to discuss various regional and global problems,” it said in a statement on Sunday, adding that Poland has the right to co-host a conference that aims to develop a platform for action for the stability and prosperity of the Middle East. Relations between Tehran and Washington are highly fraught after the decision in May by U.S. President Donald Trump to withdraw from a 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers and to reimpose sanctions, including on Iran’s oil sector. Speaking in Qatar on Sunday, Pompeo said the aims of the summit will include changing the “behavior” of Iran, which Washington accuses of destabilizing the region and supporting terrorism. Tehran denies the accusations and says U.S. military presence in the Middle East causes tensions and instability. 

Iran’s Press TV Reporter Arrested in US for No Specific Reason — US officials have arrested a journalist who works for the Iranian government-backed English-language channel Press TV. She is being held without charge, the broadcaster said on Wednesday. No formal charges have been brought against her. Marzieh Hashemi, described by Press TV as “US-born”, has been living in Iran for years and is a Muslim convert, according to the broadcaster. Formerly known as Melanie Franklin, she appears regularly on the channel as an anchor and documentary filmmaker. Press TV reported that Hashemi was arrested at St Louis Lambert International Airport on Sunday, and was only allowed to call her family two days after being detained. “Her relatives were unable to contact her, and she was allowed to contact her daughter only two days after her arrest,” Press TV reported. “[Hashemi] told her daughter that she was handcuffed and shackled and was being treated like a criminal.” Press TV said that Hashemi had gone to America to visit her terminally ill brother and also claimed that US officials had prevented her from wearing her hijab and had offered only pork, prohibited in Islam, as a meal.

 Israel may need to invade Iran, concludes Tel Aviv think tank – Israel may need to invade Iran to stop its entrenchment in Syria, an assessment by the Institute for National Security (INSS) in Tel Aviv has concluded. The independent think tank affiliated with Tel Aviv University looked at a range of scenarios in a report in which it concluded that the most serious threat facing Israel in 2019 would be an all-out war in the north.The report was launched today at a ceremony at the official residence of the President of Israel. It lists threats to Israel in order of severity and makes recommendations on how best to challenge Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas.Details of the assessment reported by the Jerusalem Post show that the most serious threat facing Israel in 2019 would be an all-out war in the north involving Iran, Hezbollah and Syria. Such a confrontation, it says, is likely to spill over to the south, and Israel would additionally find itself battling Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Hence, says the think tank, Israel must be prepared for a war on all fronts, described in the report as the “whole case” scenario, which is also the “worst case” scenario. Included in the list of threats is, predictably, Iran’s nuclear programme.Despite ranking the situation in Gaza as the least threatening to Israel, the report found that there was greater urgency to address the situation in the enclave because it was liable to escalate in the immediate future, more than any of the other arenas. While noting US President Donald Trump’s change of policy towards Iran’s nuclear programme and his decision to take a much harder line than his predecessor Barack Obama, the institute said that Washington is not prepared to enter into a military confrontation with Tehran. It cited Trump’s recent decision to withdraw troops from Syria to emphasise that Israel may need to go it alone and invade Iran.

Israeli Army Chief Admits to Waging a Secret War in Syria  — For years Israel denied allegations that it had a role in funding and weaponizing the anti-Assad insurgency in Syria, and in recent years military officials responded “no comment” even when confronted with overwhelming evidence of Israeli weapons documented in al-Qaeda linked insurgents’ hands, but this all changed in a new British Sunday Times interview with outgoing Israeli army commander Gadi Eisenkot, who has finally confirmed the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) supplied weapons to rebels across the border “for self-defense,” and further perhaps more stunningly, has admitted to long waging an “invisible war in Syria” that involved “thousands of attacks.”The interview constitutes the first time that any current top Israeli military or government official has fully acknowledged sending anything beyond “humanitarian supplies,” such as medical aid to Syrian militants seeking to topple the Assad government; and yet it still appears the country’s military chief is slow playing the confirmation, only acknowledging the IDF provided “light weapons” — even after years of reporting has definitively uncovered an expansive Israeli program to arm dozens of insurgent groups and pay their salaries, including known affiliates of al-Qaeda in Syria.This comes after the Syrian government has for years accused Israel of partnering with the west and gulf countries, such as the US, UK, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey of funding and weaponizing an al-Qaeda/ISIS insurgency as part of covert regime change operations aimed at Damascus and its allies Iran and Hezbollah. Since then, countries like Qatar have come forward to reveal just how vast their covert role in fueling the Syrian war really was, which we covered in our story, In Shocking, Viral Interview, Qatar Confesses Secrets Behind Syrian War. The Sunday Times relates a key confession that comes out of Lt.-Gen Gadi Eisenkot’s explosive interview as follows: Eisenkot acknowledged for the first time, however, that Israel had supplied rebel groups in the border area with light weapons “for self-defence”.   Israel was a hidden player on a crowded Syrian battlefield. Eisenkot positively boasted in the interview that “We operated in an area controlled by the Russians, sometimes attacking targets a kilometre or two from Russian positions,” in order to strike at Iranian assets in Syria. The rare “confession” of sorts comes at a moment the White House says it’s moving forward on President Trump’s previously announced US troop pullout from Syria, something which has rattled Israel’s leadership, which has argued that Iran will become entrenched near Israel’s border as a result. Eisenkot’s words appear a warning to Iran that Tel Aviv aims to maintain operational capability inside Syria.

Israeli Army Chief Finally Admits to Arming Syrian Rebels — While reports to that effect have been around for months, over the weekend, Israeli Army Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot finally confirmed that the Israeli military indeed provided weapons to Syrian rebels operating in Golan during the Syrian War.This was the first official confirmation from the army chief, but back in September Israeli media were reporting that Israel has armed as many as 12 rebel factions. Those reports were quickly censored by the Israeli military, however.The rebel factions have been confirming such support for awhile as well, saying they were given large amounts of money and aid as well. Syria confirmed capturing arms and munitions with Hebrew writing on them held by the rebels.By late 2018, however, Syria was making major gains in this part of the country, ultimately forcing the Israeli-backed rebels to surrender, with some negotiating relocation to Idlib.Eisenkot insisted the arms were provided to the rebellion purely for “self-defense.” This is likely an attempt to justify the legality of this intervention in the Syrian War, in which Israel has long claimed neutrality. In reality, Israel’s claims of neutrality were always only superficial, with officials having repeatedly expressed a preference that ISIS or other Islamist rebel groups impose regime change rather than the Assad government surviving.

US takes Israel’s advice for unified ‘Syraq’ strategy -The Syrian war is morphing with the US drawing Iraq into it and bringing the western alliance system into the enterprise. Reports suggest that the US is quietly stepping up deployments to Iraq. The US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo just made “surprise visits” to Erbil and Baghdad. He was plainly dismissive that “there’s no contradiction whatsoever” in the shifting US strategy on Syria. The “Syraq” strategy is going to put Russia, Turkey and Iran in a quandary. They have to adapt quickly because their divergent interests in the conflict and the underlying contradictions in their axis will soon begin to surge. This ‘big picture’ remains elusive unless the NATO Mission in Iraq that appeared on the horizon is co-related with the US’s withdrawal plan in Syria. At the end of last year, on December 5, Baghdad was the venue of an intriguing conference when the recently established NATO Mission in Iraq (NMI) conducted an “introduction Event” at the Iraqi Ministry of Defence. According to the press release issued by NATO’s Allied Joint Force Command in Naples, the conference was attended by “key leaders from across the Iraqi Security and Defence sector.. The NMI Commander, Canadian general Dany Fortin, introduced the mission’s mandate, vision and aim as a “new iteration of a long-standing relationship” between NATO and Iraq, one that will bring together “expertise and best practice in security/defence sector reform, institution building and training and education from the entire Alliance and its partners.” 

A Turkish ‘Security Zone’ In Northeast Syria Is A Bad Idea - U.S. President Trump wants U.S. troops to leave northeast Syria. His National Security Advisor John Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo tried to sabotage that move. Trump came up with idea to hand northeast Syria to Turkey, but soon was told that Turkey would fight the Kurdish YPK/PKK who the U.S. armed and used as proxy force against the Islamic State.Turkey has no interest in fighting the Islamic State or in occupying Raqqa and other Arabic ethnic cities along the Euphrates. Its only interest is to prevent the formation of an armed Kurdish entity that could threaten its soft southern underbelly. It thus came up with the idea of a "security zone" in Syria that it would occupy to keep the Kurds away from its borders. But that border strip is exactly where the major Kurdish settlements are. Ayn al-Arab, in Kurdish 'Kobane', and many other cities along the border all have largely Kurdish populations. These would certainly fight against a Turkish occupation. Turkey also wants to control the Manbij area west of the Euphrates. Russia will not allow Turkish control of more Syrian land:Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Wednesday the Syrian regime must take control of the country's north, after calls from the United States to set up a Turkish-controlled "security zone" in the area.  The Kurdish organizations and the Syrian government also also reject the Turkish plan:“Syria affirms that any attempt to target its unity will be considered as a clear aggression and an occupation of its territories as well as a support and protection for the international terrorism by Turkey,” [an official source at Foreign and Expatriates Ministry] said. Turkey moved enough troops to its border to launch an invasion but the risk for its economy is high. There are local elections in March and the Turkish President Erdogan does not want to upset them by jumping into a quagmire. Erdogan will soon visit Russia again and discuss the issue with President Putin. Most likely Erdogan will be convinced that Syrian government control over the Kurdish areas, and Russian guarantees for a mostly quiet border, are a better solution than a costly Turkish occupation of a hostile population.

 US Willing To Work With Russia To Protect Kurds In Syria- Bolton -- Bolton has signaled the US could work with Russia to ensure the enduring protection US-backed Kurds once American forces exit.  Bolton said during an interview with the Hugh Hewitt radio show on Friday that the US remains open to dialogue with Russia over how best to protect the Kurds amidst the troops draw down, which appears to finally be underway in its early phase. “The Kurds are in a very difficult position, and the President [Donald Trump], as he spoke with President Erdogan, thinks that we, they were loyal to us, and we must make sure that they’re not harmed,” Bolton told the Hugh Hewitt radio show. “We’d talk to the Russians about it, too, if need be.” Referencing the Dec. 14th call that appears the catalyst for Trump's full US troop draw down in Syria, Bolton described that Trump elicited a guarantee from Erdogan to not attack those particular Kurdish militias that have assisted the US in the anti-ISIS campaign. Bolton explained that Erdogan agreed; however, it could come down to definitions and labels as the Kurdish core of the US-armed and trained Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) — the YPG — is officially designated by Turkey a terrorist extension of the outlawed PKK. Though Bolton brushed off a question related to the humiliating snub by Erdogan, dismissing it as "political" and a bit of domestic grandstanding prior to the upcoming March 31st nationwide elections, he did answer the following million dollar question: as Turkey has again declared readiness for an impending attack on Syrian Kurdish enclaves east of the Euphrates, where American troops are still stationed, how will the US respond if Erdogan gives the order while US forces are still present?  Bolton answered, "It’s exactly this concern that American service members not be put in jeopardy, especially by a NATO ally, that was principally on President Trump’s mind," and affirmed that American officials while in Ankara this week made it clear to their counterparts that "the Turks should not take any military action that’s not fully coordinated through military to military channels with us." Military to military coordination has continued, according to Bolton, even as US-Turkish diplomatic tensions have been severely strained.

Blackwater Founder: Private Contractors Could Replace US Troops in Syria  — Controversial founder and ex-CEO of the private security firm Blackwater, Erik Prince told Fox Business this week that private military contractors could replace the U.S. troops that are withdrawing from Syria. Following a similar failed proposal Prince reportedly made through White House channels in 2017 to privatize the fight against the Taliban in Afghanistan — which some contractor industry analysts have suggested Trump was “sympathetic” to— it appeared Prince was attempting to pitch both Washington and the American public in the Fox interview on the “alternate” plan. “The United States doesn’t have a long-term strategic obligation to stay in Syria. But, I also think it’s not a good idea to abandon our allies,” he told Fox Business. Prince offered the plan as a solution to the administration’s current stated dilemma of withdrawing troops in such a way that both protects the US-backed Kurdish SDF and prevents Iran from becoming more entrenched in the region. This way, according to Prince, private contractors could fill the void while allowing Trump to stand behind his repeat promises to end “forever wars”.  Prince — the brother of billionaire Education Secretary Betsy DeVos — has over the past years since selling his mired-in-controversy Blackwater group (now Academi) begun a new mercenary empire in China called Frontier Services Group (FSG), in a market where Western firms of necessity find themselves working closely with Chinese state authorities. He’s reportedly had success in securing security and logistics contracts in Africa and China, and has since at least 2017 lobbied both top US generals and Congressional leaders to consider massive privatization of the now fast approaching two decade long quagmire in Afghanistan, from which Trump has recently vowed to extricate the United States.  Prince’s prior headline grabbing Afghan plan involved some 6,000+ mercenaries overseen by a “viceroy” reporting directly to the White House, and with a private air force to boot.

Entering A Major Regional Reset: The Syria Outcome Will Haunt Those Who Started This War - The Middle East is metamorphosing. New fault-lines are emerging, yet Trump’s foreign policy ‘hawks’ still try to stage ‘old movies’ in a new ‘theatre’. The ‘old movie’ is for the US to ‘stand up’ Sunni, Arab states, and lead them towards confronting ‘bad actor’ Iran. ‘Team Bolton’ is reverting back to the old 1996 Clean Break script – as if nothing has changed. State Department officials have been briefing that Secretary Pompeo’s address in Cairo on Thursday was “slated to tell his audience (although he may not name the former president), that Obama misled the people of the Middle East about the true source of terrorism, including what contributed to the rise of the Islamic State. Pompeo will insist that Iran, a country Obama tried to engage, is the real terrorist culprit. The speech’s drafts also have Pompeo suggesting that Iran could learn from the Saudis about human rights, and the rule of law.”Well, at least that speech should raise a chuckle around the region. In practice however, the regional fault-line has moved on: It is no longer so much Iran. GCC States have a new agenda, and are now far more concerned to contain Turkey, and to put a halt to Turkish influence spreading throughout the Levant. GCC states fear that President Erdogan, given the emotional and psychological wave of antipathy unleashed by the Khashoggi murder, may be mobilising newly re-energised Muslim Brotherhood, Gulf networks. The aim being to leverage present Gulf economic woes, and the general hollowing out of any broader GCC ‘vision’, in order to undercut the rigid Gulf ‘Arab system’ (tribal monarchy). The Brotherhood favours a soft Islamist reform of the Gulf monarchies – along lines, such as that once advocated by Jamal Khashoggi .Turkey’s leadership in any case is convinced that it was the UAE (MbZ specifically) that was the author behind the Kurdish buffer being constructed, and mini-state ‘plot’ against Turkey – in conjunction with Israel and the US. Understandably, Gulf states now fear possible Turkish retribution for their weaponising of Kurdish aspirations in this way.And Turkey is seen (by GCC States) as already working in close co-ordination with fellow Muslim Brotherhood patron and GCC member, Qatar, to divide the collapsing Council. This prefigures a new round to the MB versus Saudi Wahhabism spat for the soul of Sunni Islam. GGC states therefore, are hoping to stand-up a ‘front’ to balance Turkey in the Levant. And to this end, they are trying to recruit President Assad back into the Arab fold (which is to say, into the Arab League), and to have him act, jointly with them, as an Arab counter to Turkey. 

New Jerusalem ‘Apartheid Road’ opens, separating Palestinians and Jewish settlers - Haaretz  -After a delay of years, Route 4370 in the Jerusalem area has opened. This road connects the settlement of Geva Binyamin to Route 1, the Jerusalem-Tel Aviv highway, between French Hill and the Naomi Shemer Tunnel, which leads to Mount Scopus. The highway, which has been called the “Apartheid Road,” is divided in the middle by an eight-meter high wall. Its western side serves Palestinians, who cannot enter Jerusalem, whereas the road’s eastern side serves settlers, who can now reach French Hill and Mount Scopus more easily from Anatot, Geva Binyamin and Route 60, north of the city.The West Bank has many segregated roads, but none of them is divided along its entire length by a wall. The road was built over a decade ago but remained closed due to a dispute between the army and the police over the staffing of a new checkpoint, opened because of the road. The road has recently been renovated by Moriah, the city of Jerusalem’s infrastructure company, even though the road lies outside the city’s jurisdiction and will not serve its residents. The budget for the highway came from the Ministry of Transportation. Most of its users are expected to be settlers living north of the city, who come to the city daily to work and study. In recent years, congestion has greatly increased at the Hizma checkpoint, which the settlers go through. For now, the new road will open only between 5 A.M. and noon, when traffic is heaviest. The head of the Binyamin Regional Council, Yisrael Gantz, who took part in the opening ceremony, called the road “no less than an oxygen line for the region’s residents, who work, study and go out for entertainment in the city. In a successful cooperation venture between the regional council, the Jerusalem municipality and the Ministry of Transportation, access to the capital has been revolutionized,” he said. Part of the work included the erection of a new checkpoint, which will be closed to West Bank Palestinians. Drivers on the Palestinian side will be able to go around Jerusalem without having to enter the city.

Massive campaign to defend Israeli religious students accused of killing Palestinian mother of nine - Far-right and ultra-Orthodox groups have created a media storm over the arrest of five Jewish youths on suspicion of carrying out “serious terror offenses,” including the killing of a Palestinian woman last October.The defence of the accused is being used to stoke nationalist tensions in the run-up to the general election on April 9, and to shift Israeli politics further to the right. All the mainstream parties are complicit.The five boys, students at the Pri Ha’aretz yeshiva (religious seminary) in the Rehelim settlement in the occupied West Bank, are accused of the stone-throwing attack on a Palestinian car October 12 that killed Aisha Mohammed Rabi, 47, a mother of nine, and injured her husband, Yacoub.The past year saw a threefold increase in racist attacks on Palestinians over 2017, with 482 politically motivated crimes by Jews reported in the West Bank. These included beating and throwing stones at Palestinians, painting nationalist, anti-Arab or anti-Muslim slogans, damaging h omes and cars, and cutting down trees belonging to Palestinian farmers.The murder and its aftermath highlight the utter lawlessness and racism inherent in the Greater Israel project from which the settler movement stems. Speaking to Ha’aretz after the attack, Yacoub Rabi said, “I don’t have any doubt it was the settlers. There were six or seven of them, and it was clear that they were young.”

 Israel To Export Gas To Egypt In Bid To Create East Mediterranean Energy Export Hub - Israel has confirmed it is in extensive talks with Egypt to build a new sub-sea natural gas pipeline between the two countries as part of a previously agreed $15 billion deal to export Israeli gas to Egypt over a decade. Most significant is that the new line would hugely expand Israel's export capacity to its southern Arab neighbor, taking it far beyond the maximum 7 billion cubic meters per year currently able to flow through the existing EMG pipeline to Sinai. Israeli Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz proclaimed the ambitious project under negotiation to be part of broader "efforts to transform the eastern Mediterranean into an energy export hub on the doorstep of Europe," according to Bloomberg. “There’s no final decision yet, but there are talks,” Steinitz told Bloomberg while attending the Cairo-sponsored first East Mediterranean Gas Forum, a cooperative forum aimed at expanding east Mediterranean energy transformation and joint ventures. Notably, oil ministers from Israel, Greece, Egypt, Cyprus, Jordan, Italy, and the Palestinian Authority took part, and are set to participate again at another meeting in April. Reporting from the conference, Bloomberg described a common agreed upon goal "to work together to monetize reserves by using existing infrastructure and adding more capacity." Also significant is that this marks the first time an Israeli energy minister has visited Egypt since 2011, when "Arab Spring" demonstrations eventually brought down Hosni Mubarak, ushering in uncertainty and chaos, including brief Muslim Brotherhood rule, which for the first time brought the future of Egypt's peace treaty with Israel into question. Steinitz described further to Bloomberg that, "Construction could begin as early as next year on the pipeline that would transport gas from Israel’s offshore Leviathan and Tamar fields to Egypt’s existing liquefied natural gas plants for processing and re-export." And separately, concerning the bigger project of the sub-sea East Med pipeline supplying energy-hungry Europe — first proposed by Greek energy minister Yannis Maniatis in 2014 — Steinitz confirmed it is moving forward, touting the ambitious project as "the longest and deepest gas pipeline in the world," and an initial estimated cost of $7 billion, to be financed by "private companies and institutional lenders," according to the Israeli energy minister.

Saudi Teenager Rahaf al-Qunun Lands in Canada After Offer of Asylum  — Teenage Saudi asylum-seeker Rahaf Mohammed al-Qunun landed in Canada on Saturday to an official welcome after fleeing her home country last week.Upon her arrival at the Toronto airport, Qunun, wearing a Canada hoodie and a UN High Commission for Refugees cap, posed for photographs with Canadian Minister for Foreign Affairs Chrystia Freeland, but did not make a statement.  Qunun gained international attention earlier this month when she fled her home country to Thailand, saying she feared for her life should she be forcibly returned to her family.  While Australia had initially said it was looking at Qunun’s case to consider granting her asylum, Canada stepped in and offered immediate resettlement after Amnesty International’s Australia director Elaine Pearson said the Australian government was “too slow” and “failed to recognise the urgency of Rahaf’s situation”.The 18-year-old, who was en route to Australia, was stopped by Saudi and Kuwaiti officials when she arrived at Bangkok’s Suvarnabhumi airport last Saturday, and her travel document forcibly taken from her.After being denied entry by Thai immigration officials, Qunun then barricaded herself inside a hotel room, posting live updates on social media. “They will kill me,” she said. “My life is in danger. My family threatens to kill me for the most trivial things.”

Fearing for Her Safety, Canadians Hire Guards to Protect Saudi Teen – Amid threats to the safety of Saudi teenager Rahaf Mohammed, who was granted asylum in Canada, the Toronto agency that is helping her has hired a security guard to ensure “she is never alone” as she starts a normal life, its executive director said on Tuesday.Mohammed, 18, made international headlines after she barricaded herself in an airport hotel room in Thailand’s capital Bangkok to avoid being sent home to her family due to fears of being harmed or killed. The family denies any abuse. The teen has received multiple threats online that have made her fear for her safety, said Mario Calla, executive director of Costi, a refugee agency contracted by the Canadian government to help her settle in Toronto. Costi has hired a security guard and plans to “make sure she is never alone,” Calla told reporters. “It’s hard to say how serious these threats are. We’re taking them seriously.”

Canada issues China travel alert as tensions escalate - Canada has warned its citizens of the risk of "arbitrary enforcement" of local laws in China after a Canadian man convicted of drug trafficking was suddenly retried and sentenced to death, and Beijing denied another detained Canadian diplomatic immunity. China responded angrily on Tuesday denouncing Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for making "irresponsible" remarks. The Canadian government on Monday updated its travel advisory for China, telling citizens to exercise a high degree of caution while in the country. The update noted the highlighted the severe penalties for drug offences, including death. It came hours after a court in China's Liaoning province sentenced Robert Lloyd Schellenberg to be executed for drug smuggling following a day-long retrial in which the 36-year-old Canadian had declared his innocence. "The court completely rejects the accused person's explanation and defence because it is completely at odds with the facts," the chief judge said in a courtroom packed with observers, including Canadian embassy officials. Schellenberg had the right to appeal to Liaoning High Court within 10 days upon receiving the ruling, according to a statement by the Dalian Intermediate People's Court. Trudeau said in Ottawa he was concerned China had chosen to "arbitrarily" apply the death penalty to a Canadian citizen.

China issues travel alert telling citizens they could be 'arbitrarily detained' in Canada a day after Ottawa issued similar warning - China issued a travel warning of the risk of travelling to Canada on Tuesday – hours after Ottawa issued a similar alert. A notice by the Chinese Foreign Ministry said Chinese citizens should be aware of the risks of being “arbitrarily detained at the request of a third nation” in Canada, and urged caution when making travel plans. On Tuesday, Canada has warned its citizens of the “risk of arbitrary enforcement of local laws” in China after a Canadian citizen, Robert Lloyd Schellenberg, was sentenced to death for drug offences in a retrial that further escalated tensions. The two countries have been at loggerheads since the detention last month of Huawei executive Sabrina Meng Wanzhou, whom the US wants to extradite on fraud charges.

China's exports shrink most in two years, raising risks to global economy (Reuters) - China’s exports unexpectedly fell the most in two years in December, while imports also contracted, pointing to further weakness in the world’s second-largest economy in 2019 and deteriorating global demand. Adding to policymakers’ worries, data on Monday also showed China posted its biggest trade surplus with the United States on record in 2018, which could prompt President Donald Trump to turn up the heat on Beijing in their bitter trade dispute. Softening demand in China is being felt around the world, with slowing sales of goods from iPhones to automobiles, prompting warnings from the likes of Apple and from Jaguar Land Rover, which last week announced sweeping job cuts. The dismal December trade readings suggest China’s economy may have cooled faster than expected late in the year, despite a slew of growth-boosting measures in recent months ranging from higher infrastructure spending to tax cuts. Some analysts had already speculated that Beijing may have to speed up and intensify its policy easing and stimulus measures this year after factory activity shrank in December. China’s December exports unexpectedly fell 4.4 percent from a year earlier, with demand in most of its major markets weakening. Imports also saw a shock drop, falling 7.6 percent in their biggest decline since July 2016. Analysts had expected export growth to slow to 3 percent with imports up 5 percent. “Today’s data reflect an end to export front-loading and the start of payback effects, while the global slowdown could also weigh on China’s exports,” Nomura economists wrote in a note, referring to a surge in shipments to the U.S. over much of last year as companies rushed to beat further tariffs. “The export growth print also suggests that the recent strength of the yuan might be short-lived; Beijing will perhaps be more eager to strike a trade deal with the U.S.; and that policymakers will need to take more aggressive measures to stabilize GDP growth.” 

Forget the Trade War. China Is Already in Crisis - Once again, the world’s investors are turning their worried gaze toward China. And for good reason. Economic growth in the third quarter sank to 6.5 percent, the slowest pace since the depths of the global financial crisis in 2009. Car purchases fell last year for the first time in more than two decades. Apple Inc.’s warning in early January that iPhone sales in China were sagging alerted the world to how a slowing Middle Kingdom would drag down global growth and corporate profits. But the locals figured that out a while ago. Even after a recent uptick, the stock market in Shanghai has still plunged by more than a quarter from its 2018 high. The outlook isn’t any rosier. Tariffs on Chinese exports to the U.S. imposed by President Donald Trump are starting to pinch the country’s factories. A steep and unexpected plunge in imports in December signaled just how sharply the economy is decelerating. That’s led Beijing to turn the volume down on its bravado and negotiate with Washington to defuse the conflict. A trade pact, if it happens, may soothe investors, and perhaps even juice economic growth—at least temporarily. But it won’t bring an end to China’s woes. While tariffs are a nuisance, the real problems run deeper, embedded in China’s financial structure. What goes widely unnoticed is that China is already in crisis. No, it’s not the sort of hold-on-for-dear-life collapse the U.S. had in 2008 or the surprising, ferocious meltdowns the Asian Tiger economies experienced in 1997. Nonetheless, it’s a crisis, complete with gutted banks, bankrupt companies, and state bailouts. Since the Chinese distinguish their model of state capitalism as “socialism with Chinese characteristics,” let’s call this a “financial crisis with Chinese attributes.” This crisis is not merely about the current slowdown in growth. It’s been going on for a while, and by the looks of it, isn’t going away anytime soon. How it’s resolved—or isn’t—will have repercussions much bigger than a few quarters of poor growth performance. This crisis is about China’s economic future and whether or not it can manage the structural transformation necessary to propel the economy into the ranks of the world’s most advanced. And it also will determine if China will be a pillar of global growth—or a threat to the world’s financial stability.

Foxconn Cuts 50,000 Jobs Due To iPhone Sales Slowdown - In the latest indication that the slump in sales of Apple's most recent batch of iPhones isn't a transitory trend, Nikkei Asia Review on Friday reported that Foxconn, one of Apple's biggest and most important iPhone suppliers, is cutting seasonal staff more swiftly than in previous years, a sign that it is bracing for weak sales in the months ahead as the industry suffers its worst downturn in 10 years. Normally, the 50,000 contract workers who have been let go at Foxconn's most important factory in Zhengzhou would have been kept around for a few more months, as the manufacturer gradually reduced its employee head count. The report comes after Apple announced plans to cut iPhone production for the second time in two months.Around 50,000 contract workers have been let go since October at Foxconn Technology Group's most important iPhone factory at Zhengzhou, in China's Henan Province, according to an industry source familiar with the situation. Normally, the contracts of these workers would be renewed every month from August until mid- to late January, when the workforce is traditionally scaled back for the slow iPhone production season. The depth of the cuts isn't deeper than in previous years, it's just happening much earlier than expected, as many workers were asked to leave before year-end as expectations for holiday sales slumped.

Is Xi Jinping’s Taiwan reunification push hastening a US-China clash- Beijing’s renewed push for reunification with Taiwan has exposed the fragility of the balance of power in the Taiwan Strait – a relationship increasingly in question with China and the United States locked in a superpower rivalry over trade and geopolitical friction. Government advisers and analysts warn that the deadlocked cross-strait relations are entering a dangerous period, with an expectation of escalating tensions in the months ahead as an increasingly isolated Taipei tilts further towards Washington, seeking a hedge against Beijing’s aggressive pressure campaign. The self-governed island’s fate – the most disruptive factor in Beijing’s complex relations with Washington – could touch off a chain reaction that exacerbates the strain on bilateral ties, already mired in a protracted trade war and escalating technology race, they say. In a speech that may have set the tone for Beijing’s Taiwan policy for years to come, President Xi Jinping last week said both sides should begin talks on reunification to end decades of animosity. Describing the Taiwan question as a historical trauma for the Chinese nation, Xi said the island must be reunited with Beijing under “one country, two systems”, a model applied in Hong Kong and Macau. Despite his conciliatory overture – coming amid a stalemate that began when Tsai Ing-wen of the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party was elected as Taiwan’s president in 2016 – Xi insisted that Beijing would not renounce the use of force, which he claimed was aimed at pro-independence forces in Taiwan and the “interference of external forces”, a veiled reference to Washington. However, his proposal for unification talks was met with robust criticism from Taiwan as Tsai accused Beijing of undermining the island’s vibrant democratic process and called on Xi to respect Taiwan’s existence. Tsai firmly rejected Xi’s proposal and, for the first time she took power, removed her deliberate ambiguity over the impasse over the “1992 consensus”, a tacit agreement between Beijing and Taiwan’s then Kuomintang administration that there is “one China”, but each side can interpret that as it likes. 

China To US Navy Chief- Army Will Defend Taiwan Claims At Any Cost - A rare and under-reported tense exchange occurred between US and Chinese military commanders in Beijing on Tuesday. A high level Chinese military official, General Li Zuocheng, told the head of the United States Navy, Admiral John Richardson, in a face to face meeting that Beijing would defend its claim to Taiwan "at any cost". "The Taiwan issue is an internal matter of China, concerns China's fundamental interests and the national feelings of the Chinese people, and no outside interference will be tolerated," Li Zuocheng said in a statement released by the Ministry of Defense, cited by the AFP. After a series of recent instances involving US Navy warships making provocative passages through the Taiwan Strait — which the US says is its right according to freedom to navigate international waters, it appears China is going "gloves off" in direct statements challenging US military commanders. Gen. Zuocheng, who is a powerful member of the Central Military Commission further told the US Navy chief: If anyone wants to separate Taiwan from China, the Chinese army will defend the unity of the motherland at any cost.

“China’s Nightmare”: B-2 Stealth Bombers Sent To Hawaii, “On Watch 24/7” -  – The US Air Force is putting China on notice as it announced Friday a new deployment of three B-2 Spirit stealth bombers to Hawaii for training in the Pacific. The nuclear-capable aircraft departed Whiteman Air Force Base, Missouri, and touched down at Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam in Hawaii, along with 200 support personnel airmen, as part of a U.S Strategic Command-led Bomber Task Force mission. One defense analyst recently called the increase in B-2 bomber deployments to Hawaii “China’s nightmare, and something Beijing should get used to.”  “Deploying to Hawaii enables us to showcase to a large American and international audience that the B-2 is on watch 24 hours a day, seven days a week ready to protect our country and its allies,” military spokesman Lt. Col. Joshua Dorr said in a statement. Though a Pacific Air Forces Public Affairs press release did not expressly mention China, Beijing has reacted aggressively to a number of routine US long-range flyovers in the Pacific and South China Sea regions over the past year, including “close call” incidents involving Chinese intercept attempts of US vessels passing through what China claims as its own territorial waters. “Its presence in the Hawaiian Islands stands as a testament to enhanced regional security,” the US military statement continued. The Air Force statement further touted the B-2’s ability to “penetrate an enemy’s most sophisticated defenses,” as well as “put at risk their most valuable targets” due to its “low-observable, or stealth, characteristics”. The statement , “This training is crucial to maintaining our regional interoperability. It affords us the opportunity to work with our allies in joint exercises and validates our always-ready global strike capability.”

China offers NASA use of moon mission probe - Buoyed by the success of its Jade Rabbit moon mission, China is planning to next establish a base on the south pole of the moon and build houses with 3D printing technology. The deputy chief commander of China's Lunar Exploration Program, Wu Yanhua, said China was already in discussions with the United States and European space programs about what a moon research station could achieve.  Chinese space scientists spoke publicly about the history-making Chang'e-4 mission to the far side of the moon on Monday. Wu played down the cost, comparing the price of sending the Change'e-4 lander and its Jade Rabbit rover to the far side of the moon to subway construction. "It didn't cost much money. Vividly speaking, it may be similar to one kilometre of subway that we build." It was also revealed that NASA scientists had been exchanging data with the Chinese lunar team, and China has agreed to a NASA request to use its Chang'e-4 lunar probe for future American exploration of the far side of the moon.The request for space cooperation comes despite a Washington ban on NASA allowing Chinese officials to visit any of its earthly facilities, and a ban on Chinese astronauts in the International Space Station.The designer of China's lunar exploration program, Wu Weiren, said on Monday that NASA scientists had asked him if China could extend the life of the relay satellite it was using to transmit images back from Jade Rabbit as the rover explored the far side of the moon.  NASA had also asked if Chang'e-4 could carry a beacon to the moon.

French probe casts light on dark practices in Japan’s Olympics bid – French prosecutors launched moves last week to possibly indict the chairman of Japan’s National Olympic Committee and former head of the 2020 Olympic Bid Committee, Tsunekazu Takeda, for alleged bribery helping Tokyo win the 2020 Olympics. Tokyo was selected as the 2020 Olympic host city in 2013, beating Istanbul and Madrid. It was an uphill battle for Japan – it won hosting rights despite concerns about radioactive fallout from Fukushima and sweltering August heat which could prove lethal for athletes. At the heart of the issue is the shadowy connection between lobbying, influence peddling and bribery in international sports. Central to the French case is a payment of $2.8 million Singapore dollars (US$2 million) the Japan Olympic Bid Committee made to a company associated with a former president of the International Association of Athletics Federations Lamine Diack of Senegal, who is now a wanted man. The payment, to a company connected to Diack, appears to have been made on the understanding that he would use his influence to sway African International Olympic Committee (IOC) members to vote for Tokyo. French authorities say that the money, designated as “Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games Bid”, came from an account opened at a Japanese bank primarily for that purpose.

What does the king’s dramatic abdication mean for Malaysia? - Sultan Muhammad V has stepped down as Malaysia’s king after a week of speculation about the monarch’s status following his two-month leave of absence. Photo: AFP Malaysia’s King, Sultan Muhammad V, has abdicated, the country’s national palace announced on Sunday, after a week of speculation about the monarch’s status following his two-month leave of absence. The dramatic development – for which the palace offered no official reason – is likely to shock citizens who largely revere the country’s hereditary rulers and are unused to modern-day upheavals in the monarchy. “His Majesty has officially conveyed this [decision to abdicate] to the Malay rulers via a letter issued to the secretary of the Conference of Rulers,” said a statement issued by the palace. “The King, during his tenure, worked to fulfil his responsibilities and the trust given him as Head of State, working to be an anchor of stability, a source of justice, a core of unity and the protector of unification among the people.” In the statement, the sultan conveyed his thanks to the other Malay rulers who chose him as the Yang di Pertuan Agong in December 2016, and to the Prime Minister and the government who cooperated in overseeing the country. The Oxford-educated 49-year-old had taken a two-month leave of absence in November and was due back in office on January 1, but questions arose last week over whether he had returned. At a Friday press conference, Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad said he had no clue about the status of the king, though he too had heard the rumours.

Engineers disagree on whether Australian high rise is safe to reoccupy -- While only two of the four engineers’ have concluded it is safe to reoccupy the building, some residents have moved back in to Opal Tower, either voluntarily or because their hotels were cancelled by the builder. The engineers for the body corporate say they are waiting on further information before they can declare the building safe to occupy, while the New South Wales (NSW) state government only released its own assessment by three academic engineers today.The builder, Icon, told residents in a letter on January 10 that engineers WSP, who designed the building, and Rincovitch Partners, had both declared the building to be “structurally sound.” No explanation was given, however, why a concrete panel on the 10th level of the 34-storey tower had cracked. The extent of temporary bracing that has been placed through a number of floors—up to a hundred jacks, each of which can support ten metric tonnes are being used—suggest that there are still concerns the building will continue to shift.Icon’s letter stated: “It is entirely up to the residents whether they want to move in or not. Our view and the view of the engineers is that the building is safe to occupy.” Residents have complained about the lack of information.  A one page letter sent on January 11 by Cardno Engineering, who have been engaged by the body corporate, called for completion of the reinforcing and asked for further tests to “confirm finding of the non-compliant reinforcing in the precast on Level 10” and whether the significant spalling is a “one-off occurrence” or a “systemic problem.”

India Just Staged The Biggest Strike In History As 200 Million Workers Took To The Streets - In what may be the largest worker strike in history, last week India came to a halt for two days when at least 200 million workers - about 16% of India's 1.25 billion population - in the country's public, services, communications and agriculture sectors staged a strike across the country organized by ten labor unions against what they called the anti-national and anti-worker policies of the BJP-led government, and against a new labor law that would undermine the rights of workers and unions.The strike is a protest against new legislation that passed on 2 January, and is a de facto verdict on Prime Minister Narendra Modi providing an opportunity for millions of workers to protest against high prices and high levels of unemployment, something we touched upon in "The Indian Railway System Announced 63,000 Job Openings... 19 Million People Applied."John Dayal, general secretary of the All India Christian Council, told AsiaNews that the event was exceptional, "one of the largest ever organised in the country, planned in advance in every detail." In his view, the most important thing is that it "is taking place on the eve of general elections that will mark the fate of the prime minister".While the massive strike took place in an overall context of calm, there were numerous incidents confirming that social anger in the world's second most populous nation is also approaching a breaking point: protesters blocked several cities, clashes broke out and damage were reported; a 57-year-old woman died in in Mundagod, a city in northern Karnataka, during a local protest. In Maharashtra more than 5,000 workers blocked the Mumbai-Baroda-Jaipur-Delhi highway. In Puducherry (Pondicherry), on the east coast, protesters hurled stones at a Tamil Nadu state bus.  Transport services closed and rail services were disrupted in Kerala. In Odisha (Orissa), shops, schools, offices and markets shut down for 48 hours. In West Bengal, protesters burnt effigies of Prime Minister Modi.

Why Narendra Modi May Answer Farmers’ Distress With a Basic Income Plan - In the last two weeks, there has been much speculation about Prime Minister Narendra Modi seriously considering the implementation of a universal basic income (UBI). This follows his party’s recent electoral debacle in the Hindi heartland, and precedes by just a few months the 2019 General Election.This is the second wave of interest the current government has shown in the idea of UBI. The first wave was in the early 2017, when the then chief economic advisor, Dr Arvind Subramanian, included a substantial chapter entitled Universal basic Income: A Conversation with and within the Mahatma, in his annual Economic Survey (2016-17) which was presented to parliament. The chapter explored the concept of UBI and observed that it could be a way forward to address poverty.Subramanian went on to say that a full-fledged UBI may not be feasible in India immediately, but it was possible to think of a quasi UBI (QUBI), which identifies specific demographics and gives them an unconditional basic income.One of his speculations was that a QUBI could be extended to all women citizens, to ensure that every household receives a basic income. The discussion within the government did not proceed beyond this point, as the Prime Minister was not convinced of the political dividends flowing from this policy route.The immediate trigger for the second wave of interest in basic income is the recently concluded election in states of Telangana, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. At the time of these elections, farmers’ crisis took centre-stage and the Congress party promised they would waive farm loans as soon as they came to power – and they did so when they took charge of three states. In the state of Telangana, the ruling party, Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) went a step further by implementing, several months before the elections, a scheme called Rythu Bandhu (Farmer Investment Support), which gives farmers Rs 8,000 per acre per annum. The cutting edge of the scheme is that it is unconditional – a feature that is considered central to the idea of basic income.Irrespective of whether farmers take up cultivation or not, the investment will be transferred to them. The scheme benefited about 5.8 million farmers who own a total of 14 million acres of cultivable land in Telangana.

Collapse in India's onion prices could leave Modi smarting in election (Reuters) - A spike in the price of onions has led to the ouster of governments in Indian elections in the past. Now, prices of the staple have collapsed, and many impoverished farmers are saying they will make Prime Minister Narendra Modi pay in next year’s general election. A farmer sits on a tractor trolley after auctioning his onions at Lasalgaon market in Nashik in the western state of Maharashtra, India, December 19, 2018. REUTERS/Rajendra Jadhav Steep drops in recent weeks in the prices of onions and potatoes, both staple foods for India’s 1.3 billion people, have badly hit the rural economy in large states. In interviews with dozens of farmers last week, Reuters reporters found resentment welling against Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) for not helping support incomes in the countryside, where a majority of the population lives. “Whatever they do in the coming months, I will vote against the BJP. I won’t repeat the 2014 mistake,” said Madhukar Nagare, an onion grower from Nashik in Maharashtra state, referring to his backing the BJP at the last general election. In the 1998 state elections, a sharp spike in onion prices led to the fall of the BJP government in the capital New Delhi. In the 1980 general election, sky-high onion prices helped former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi dislodge a coalition government that had included politicians who later formed the BJP. In recent weeks, loss-stricken farmers have staged protests, blocked highways and dumped onions on the road after prices plunged to as low as one rupee (1.4 U.S. cents) per kg for a crop that costs about 8 rupees a kg to produce. But because of large cuts taken by middlemen, consumers have not benefited from the low prices. In Maharashtra, the top onion producing state, farm prices have fallen 83 percent, dragged down by surplus supplies from the previous season’s crop and lower export orders from the Middle East and Southeast Asia. And in India’s most populous state of Uttar Pradesh, which was crucial in Modi’s election win in 2014, there is a similar problem with low potato prices. 

Pakistan Garment Industry Becoming More Cost Competitive With Bangladesh's? -- Low wages and trade deals with Western nations have helped Bangladesh build a $30 billion ready-made garments (RMG) industry that accounts for 80% of country's exports. Bangladesh is the world's second largest RMG exporter after China. Rising monthly wages of Bangladesh garment worker in terms of US dollars are now catching up with the minimum wage in Pakistan, especially after recent Pakistani rupee devaluation. Minimum monthly wage in Pakistan has declined from $136 last year to $107 now while Bangladesh has seen it increase from $64 last year to $95 today.  Western garment buyers, known for their relentless pursuit of the lowest labor costs, will likely diversify their sources by directing new investments to Pakistan and other nations. Competing on low cost alone may prove to be a poor long term exports strategy for both countries.  Greater value addition with diverse products and services will be necessary to remain competitive as wages rise in both countries.  The government in Dhaka announced in September that the minimum wage for garment workers would increase by up to 51% this year to 8,000 taka ($95) a month, up from $64 a year ago, according to Renaissance Capital. But garment workers union leaders say that increase will benefit only a small percentage of workers in the sector, which employs 4 million in the country of 165 million people, according to Reuters.  Bangladesh government promised this week it would consider demands for an increase in the minimum wage, after clashes between police and protesters killed one worker and wounded dozens.

Zimbabwe’s government cracks down on protest over fuel price increase - Al Jazeera reported Tuesday that dozens of people had been injured and five killed after protests broke out across the country during the second day of a three-day national strike. Hundreds have been arrested. Many Zimbabweans stayed home during the strike, resulting in the closure of many schools. Protests have been met with violent reprisals by government forces and the arrest of hundreds across the country. The government also shut down the internet, a move which Doug Coltart, a lawyer who spoke to detainees in Harare, explained to the Guardian was clearly being “[used] to cover up a massive operation of repression” against the Zimbabwean population.The demonstrations come in response to a 150 percent fuel price increase announced by the Mnangagwa government last weekend. The hike in fuel prices makes Zimbabwe the country with the world’s most expensive petrol and diesel prices, adding even more fuel to an already explosive situation. As Derek Matyszak a political analyst at the Institute for Security Studies told CNN: “This unrest was a slow train that has been coming for some time ... and the fuel price hike was the straw that broke the camel's back.”

General strike of 700,000 public sector workers shakes Tunisia --Eight years after the ouster of Tunisian dictator President Zine El Abedine Ben Ali on January 14, 2011, renewed mass struggles are shaking the country’s government.Yesterday a one-day general strike involving close to 700,000 public service workers brought the country to a standstill. According to media reports, all flights in and out of Tunisia’s main airport were canceled. Schools were closed and ports, hospitals, public transport and other public services disrupted.Called by the General Union of Tunisian Workers (UGTT), the strike was the largest since the mass demonstrations following the assassination of prominent opposition leader Chokri Belaid in February 2013.In the capital Tunis, tens of thousands of protesters rallied at the national union headquarters and marched through the city’s main thoroughfare with signs reading “Get Out!” and “The People Want the Fall of the Regime.” Demonstrations also took place in other important cities, including Sidi Bouzid, where the first mass protests broke out in December 2010 after the self-immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi.The general strike follows nationwide protests and clashes with police after another self-immolation, by 32-year-old journalist Abderrazak Zorgui, in the industrial city of Kasserine at the end of December.The renewed mass protests and strikes demonstrate, once again, that none of the grievances that sparked the mass revolutionary uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt and throughout the Middle East have been resolved. “The core demands of the 2011 revolution were employment, the betterment of the Tunisian economy and an end to corruption. However, none of these demands have been met. This is why today we are here,” one protester, Lassad Hamdi, told the National.

DR Congo: Nearly 900 killed in ethnic clashes last month - Ethnic violence in western Democratic Republic of Congo left at least 890 dead over just three days last month, the UN says. "Credible sources" say clashes between Banunu and Batende communities took place in four villages in Yumbi, the UN Human Rights Office says. Most of the area's population has reportedly been displaced. Voting in the 30 December presidential election was postponed in Yumbi because of violence. The attacks had reportedly taken place on 16-18 December. What's the UN saying? Some 465 houses and buildings were burned down or pillaged, including two primary schools, a health centre, a health post, a market and the office of the country's independent electoral commission, the UN said. The displaced residents included some 16,000 people who sought refuge by crossing the Congo river into neighbouring Republic of Congo, also known as Congo-Brazzaville, it added.

Everything the Western Mainstream Media Outlets Get Wrong When Covering Poor Countries - If you want to find out what’s happening in a poor country, be sure to add tourists to your Google News search.“Canadian and Italian tourists feared kidnapped in Burkina Faso,” was the recent headline in the BBC, a day after clashes there claimed 46 lives. The BBC didn’t cover the clashes online, nor did they cover a terrorist attack there a few days prior, or the country’s trade deals with China. If the tragic events had happened in Europe though, the media would have been all over it.We see similar scenarios with the recent media coverage of tourists robbed in Brazil (just as a president who is arguably more racist, sexist, and homophobic than Trump has taken power – yes, it’s possible), of a tourist murdered in Morocco, and the killings in a Mexican tourist resort.From de-prioritizing the lives of locals in poor countries, to downplaying global inequality, racism, and condescension, the way Western news agencies do international news is deeply harmful. They judge other countries based on the assumption that US and European political and economic standards are the best and only way to do things, and that practice is leading to some seriously discriminatory and damaging outcomes. As the news becomes increasingly corporatist, with agencies blurring the lines between native advertising and news stories and focusing on clicks over quality, there is little desire to examine this sort of malpractice, let alone rectify it.

Global economy is headed for recession: Kemp -(Reuters) - Global growth is slowing and the world economy is headed for a recession in 2019 unless something happens to give it renewed momentum.The OECD’s composite leading indicator fell to just 99.3 points in November, its lowest since October 2012, and down from a peak of 100.5 at the end of 2017.Growth momentum has been easing for some time in Britain, Canada, France and Italy and there were tentative signs of slackening momentum in the United States and Germany in November.The composite indicator is likely to fall even further when data for December are published next month, given the weakness already revealed in equity markets and business surveys.The OECD composite leading indicator has been weakening consistently for the last year and now points unambiguously to a contraction ahead (https://tmsnrt.rs/2HfQKH5).In the last 50 years, whenever the index has fallen below 99.3, there has almost always been a recession in the United States (1970, 1974, 1980, 1981, 1990, 2001 and 2008).The one exception was the weakening of the index in 1998, when the United States continued to grow, despite the weakening global economy in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis. Even in this case, however, the interest-rate setting Federal Open Market Committee noted “the economy has been holding up but is now showing clear signs of deterioration.”

According To This Leading Indicator, The World Is Now In A Recession - Earlier this week, we presented an ominous  for the world economy chart: namely the collapse of global money supply which has been declining rapidly over the last year and a half. In fact, global money supply growth (using M1) is now flirting with the lows seen in mid-2008. And while some economies, such as China, are now desperately trying to pivot back to supportive measures, BofA's Barnaby Martin recently warned that high global debt will constrain enthusiasm for engaging in further rounds of stimulus. Meanwhile, as the chart below suggests, lower money supply growth has always pointed to weaker global economic momentum going forward. In fact, if one uses Global Industrial Production growth as a proxy for the global economic expansion, or contraction, the World is now almost certainly in a recession; the only question is when will economists acknowledge it. The message from the chart above has also been heard loud and clear in high frequency economic indicators (at least in those countries where the government is not shut down and where data is still being reported), with the number of consecutive days of negative global data surprises now approaching the longest since the financial crisis.

Olivier Blanchard on debt: “Relax. Don’t relax too much, but relax” -  FT Alphachat podcast - Author of the standard textbook on macroeconomics, former head of research for the International Monetary Fund, currently at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Olivier Blanchard works in the place where economists and politicians attempt to talk to each other. He talked to us about how the financial crisis changed his thinking on models, why state debt isn’t always and everywhere a bad thing and why the best forecasts in the future might come from artificial intelligence.

Turkish Parliament Grants Erdogan Emergency Powers To Combat Economic Disaster - In what could be the biggest threat yet to the independence of Turkey's central bank... ...the Turkish parliament on Wednesday endowed Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with untrammeled emergency authority to intervene when the country's economy is under threat, Bloomberg reported. Parliament voted late Wednesday to authorize Erdogan to take all the necessary measures in case of a “negative development” that could spread across the entire financial system. It also approved the formation of the Financial Stability and Development Committee that will work to coordinate efforts against risks to financial stability and security, according to the law, set to go into effect following the president’s approval.According to the new law, "the president is authorized and responsible for implementation of all measures beyond the powers" of members of the Financial Stability and Development Committee, which was also created by the law, and will be overseen by Turkey's Treasury and Finance ministries.Per BBG, the measure is intended to strengthen Turkey's defenses against another downturn, like the capital flight that sparked a more than 40% devaluation in the lira last year. Though the lira has recovered off its lows, anxieties remain about Turkey's foreign-currency denominated debt, which is creating problems in Turkey's corporate sector - particularly among construction firms.CDS spreads still indicate that default risk remains a concern for investors in Turkish assets.

Russia Prepares To Buy Up To $10 Billion In Bitcoin To Evade US Sanctions - While the market has been increasingly focused on the rising headwinds in the global economy in general, and China's economic slowdown in particular, while the media is obsessing over daily revelations that Trump may or may not have colluded with Russia to get elected, a far more critical, if underreported, shift has been taking place over the past year.As we reported in June, whether due to concerns over draconian western sanctions and asset confiscations following the poisoning of former Russian military officer Sergei Skripal, or simply because it wanted to diversify away from the dollar, Russia liquidated virtually all of its Treasury holdings in the late spring and early summer, in the process sparking a major repricing of the 10Y US Treasury, whose yield jumped from 2.70% at the start of April to a high of 3.10% in May, a move which economists were struggling to explain at the time. The obvious next question is what did Russia do with the proceeds, and it came as little surprise that, as we wrote back in July, as Russia was selling nearly $100BN worth of Treasurys, it was aggressively buying gold. In addition to gold, the Kremlin also instructed the Russian finance ministry to load up on Yuan, something which we noted at the end of September, when we showed the surge in reserves allocated to the Chinese Yuan.

 Russia Blasts UK Foreign Base Plans, Vows Appropriate Retaliatory Measures - In a dangerous moment of escalating rhetoric between two global powers, Russia has slammed recent British defense statements suggesting the UK is seeking to establish new military bases in the Caribbean and southeast Asia.On Friday the Russian foreign ministry called prior statements regarding post-Brexit military expansion by UK defense secretary Gavin Williamson "of a counter-productive, destabilizing and frequently provocative nature" and said should such plans proceed, Russia could "take appropriate retaliatory measures." The veiled threat could mark the beginning of a "new Cold War" arms and base-race between Moscow and the West, given that it signals Russia's willingness to respond to any UK bases reestablished in former British empire locations with its own aggressive revitalization of old Soviet bases. "The pronouncements by the UK defense secretary in favor of further militarizing the British policy cause at least bewilderment," Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said, according to state-run TASS.The statements were aimed specifically at Defence Secretary Williamson's remarks to the Sunday Telegraph last last month, which evoked controversy by suggesting Britain take aggressive steps toward a post-Brexit expansion as a "global player" all the while waxing nostalgic about the glory days of the world-wide British Empire. This included floating the idea of establishing UK bases in the Caribbean and Asia, and vowing to build at least two foreign bases “in a couple of years.” "This is our biggest moment as a nation since the end of the Second World War, when we can recast ourselves in a different way, we can actually play the role on the world stage that the world expects us to play," the British Conservative MP and Secretary of State for Defence said. "For so long — literally for decades — so much of our national view point has actually been colored by a discussion about the European Union."

Russian Navy To Deploy 30 Poseidon Strategic Underwater Nuclear Drones - On Saturday, a defense industry source told TASS News that the Russian Navy is preparing to deploy more than 30 Poseidon strategic nuclear-capable underwater drones on combat duty."Two Poseidon-carrying submarines are expected to enter service with the Northern Fleet and the other two will join the Pacific Fleet. Each of the submarines will carry a maximum of eight drones and, therefore, the total number of Poseidons on combat duty may reach 32 vehicles," the source said.  Poseidon, previously known by the Russian codename Status-6, is designed to create a tsunami wave up to 1,600 ft. tall and wipe out enemy vessels and marine bases, which would then contaminate the area with radioactive isotopes.    President Vladimir Putin first unveiled the strategic drone propelled by a miniaturized nuclear reactor at his state-of-the-nation address to both houses of the Russian parliament back in March."In his state-of-the-nation address to both houses of Russia’s parliament on March 1, Russian President Putin mentioned for the first time the country’s efforts to develop a nuclear-powered unmanned underwater vehicle that can carry both conventional and nuclear warheads and is capable of destroying enemy infrastructural facilities, aircraft carrier groups and other targets," TASS said in a Dec. report.  Last month, we documented how the Russian Navy started underwater trials of the drone, which a source told TASS that, "in the sea area protected from a potential enemy’s reconnaissance means, the underwater trials of the nuclear propulsion unit of the Poseidon drone are underway."

Millions paid out in compensation after NATO exercise -  The Armed Forces have so far paid out NOK 13 million in damages after the Trident Juncture exercise last year. New demands remain after the NATO exercise. Most compensation claims apply to damage to farmland and roads, reported Nationen newspaper. In addition, more than 100 complaints have been received regarding pollution from the exercise last autumn. ‘’We have completed 283 cases for disbursement and paid out NOK 13.2 million’’ said the head of the environmental office, Marianne Bø of the Armed Forces, who leads the compensation work. A total of 853 cases have been received and 46 complaints, but the compensation phone is still open. Basically, the Norwegian Armed Forces take 25% of the bill for the damage, while the home country of the forces that have caused the damage pay 75%.

Russia To Overtake Germany As World's Fifth-Largest Economy -  The Russian economy is apparently more durable than many Western politicians imagined. Despite years of international sanctions and low oil prices have dragged on Russia's economy, which pushed the Russian economy into a recession during 2015, UK-based global bank Standard Chartered predicted in a report published this week that Russia will overtake Germany as the world's fifth largest economy, possibly as early as next year, according to RT. In a report outlining its projections for the global economy through 2030, StanChart projected that China would overtake the US a the world's largest economy as explosive growth in Asia will eventually see some of the Continent's largest economies unseat Western economies in the top rankings. By 2030, the bank expects seven of the world's ten largest economies will be Asian economies.  Using a combination of PPP-inflected exchange rates and nominal GDP growth, the bank ranked the top five economies as China, the US, India, Japan, and Russia. Rounding out the top 10 countries will include Germany, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey, and the UK."By 2020, a majority of the world population will be classified as middle class. Asia will lead the increase in middle-class populations even as middle classes stagnate in the West," said Standard Chartered researcher Madhur Jha. StanChart aren't the only ones who are optimistic about Russia's prospects. The World Bank said in its economic outlook that it expects GDP growth in Russia to accelerate to 1.8% in 2020 and 2021, compared with 1.6% last year. It attributed this growth largely to "relatively low and stable inflation and increased oil production." The IMF has also raised its forecast for Russia’s GDP growth in 2019 to 1.8%, with the fund anticipating that the impact of rising oil prices would outweigh the impact of sanctions.

German regulator saddles Deutsche Bank with onerous money laundering reviews - Germany’s financial regulator, BaFin, is on Deutsche Bank’s case, big time. After the unprecedented appointment last fall of an auditor to monitor Germany’s largest bank, the regulator now is imposing eight new requirements, including a review of 20,000 customer accounts deemed high-risk for possible money laundering.The regulator is not happy with the bank’s controls for detecting suspicious activity and is ready to levy fines if Deutsche does not meet the timetable for the new measures.The deadline for reviewing these thousands of accounts hosted by its corporate and investment banking divisions is the end of June. Missing documentation must be completed and the accounts evaluated according to tightened guidelines to crack down on money laundering.Accounts for clients considered moderately risky are to be reviewed by June of next year, and the least risky clients by summer 2021. The account review in the divisions formerly managed by Garth Ritchie, head of Deutsche's investment bank, are the core of the BaFin requirements. But deficits in know-your-customer procedures (KYC) exist in the transaction bank as well as in securities trading. BaFin has already fined Deutsche Bank €40 million ($46 million) for insufficient money-laundering controls. In the meantime, rules have become tougher. In a worst-case scenario, the watchdog could also force executive board members to quit. Responsibility for fulfilling the new requirements rests with executive board member Frank Kuhnke, who enjoys the confidence of both Deutsche’s board and the regulatory agency. Kuhnke has been put in charge of the bank’s internal anti-financial crime team.

German GDP grew 1.5 pct in 2018, weakest rate in five years (Reuters) - The German economy grew by 1.5 percent in 2018, the weakest rate in five years and a clear slowdown from the previous year, a preliminary estimate from the Federal Statistics Office showed on Tuesday. Europe’s largest economy is struggling with a cooling of the global economy, trade disputes triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s ‘America First’ policies and the risk of Britain leaving the European Union without a deal in March. Economists polled by Reuters had expected growth in gross domestic product (GDP) of 1.5 percent last year after an expansion rate of 2.2 percent in 2017. Adjusted for calendar effects, growth slowed to 1.5 percent from 2.5 percent in the previous year, the statistic office said. 

Groundbreaking deal makes large number of German studies free to public - Three years ago, a group of German libraries, universities, and research institutes teamed up to force the three largest scientific publishers to offer an entirely new type of contract. In exchange for an annual lump sum, they wanted a nationwide agreement making papers by German authors free to read around the world, while giving researchers in Germany access to all of the publishers’ online content. Today, after almost 3 years of negotiations, the consortium, named Project DEAL, can finally claim a success: This morning, it signed a deal with Wiley, an academic publisher headquartered in Hoboken, New Jersey. Under the 3-year contract, scientists at more than 700 academic institutions will be able to access all of Wiley’s academic journals back to 1997 and to publish open access in all of Wiley’s journals. The annual fee will be based on the number of papers they publish in Wiley journals—about 10,000 in previous years, says one of the negotiators, physicist Gerard Meijer of the Fritz Haber Institute, a Max Planck Society institute here.

France, Germany To Merge Economic And Defense Policies; Create Cross-Border Eurodistricts - Germany and France are set to forge a pact aligning their defense, diplomatic and economic policies in an unprecedented "twinning" pact "regarded as a prototype for the future of the European Union," according to The Times' Oliver Moody.  German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron will sign the "Aachen treaty" later this month which will govern a coordinated diplomatic front as well as joint actions on peacekeeping missions. What's more - areas on both sides of the Franco-German border will be encouraged to establish "Eurodistricts" in which both countries would merge water, electricity and public transport networks. Berlin and Paris will offer cash to incentivise these cross-border areas, which could involve shared hospitals, joint business schemes or environmental projects. Some officials regard these experiments as a petri dish for the integration of the EU. -The TimesNo word on whether France will accept half of Germany's refugees.Additionally, both countries will lobby for Berlin to receive a permanent seat on the United Nations security council, where France already sits with the United States, China, Russia and Britain. Berlin was elected to the council as a non-permanent member last June. France and Germany will also coordinate policy positions ahead of pivotal EU summits in order to make the bloc a "more decisive power on the world stage." In short - the treaty will solidify the two countries' commitments to "the values of multilateralism at a time when the global liberal order is under threat," writes Moody.  The two countries will hold "regular consultations on all levels before major European meetings, and take care to establish common positions and issue joint statements," according to the agreement, and will "stand up for a strong and effective common foreign and defence policy, and strengthen and deepen the economic and currency union."

Yellow Vest Protesters Destroy 60 Percent of France’s Speed Cameras - All over France, protesters are burning speed cameras or covering them with tape to prevent them from snapping photos of speeding vehicles. Members of the yellow vest movement in France have reportedly vandalized and destroyed more than half of the country's speed cameras.A spokesman for the French Ministry of the Interior told CNN that 60 percent of France's speed cameras, about 3,200 in total, have been vandalized since November, threatening road safety and putting people's lives at risk.  The demonstrations, which began in November as a protest to an environmentally friendly fuel tax, have absorbed a variety of other causes, many of them based around pocketbook issues. The vandalism targeting cameras is seen as a response to the country's government lowering speed limits in July. According to CNN, speed limits were decreased from 56 mph to 50 mph on two-lane highways – a decision officials made in an effort to reduce vehicle accidents and deaths.  But the protesters feel the speed cameras are only a way for the country to take money from poor, the BBC reported. All around France, speed cameras are covered in paint or black tape that prevents them from taking photos of speeding cars' license plates and sending the motorists a ticket.

Tens of thousands take to streets in Act 9 of ‘Yellow Vest’ protests - Around 84,000 protesters -- up from 50,000 the previous week -- took to the streets in "Yellow Vest" rallies across France on Saturday for a ninth straight weekend of protests against President Emmanuel Macron's economic policies. Paris police fired water cannon and tear gas to repel “Yellow Vest” demonstrators around the Arc de Triomphe as scuffles broke out between police and protesters near the monument. Police established a car ban on the nearby Champs-Élysées avenue.Around 84,000 demonstrators took to the streets of French cities and towns, said French Interior Minister Christophe Castaner, adding that 244 people were detained.Many sang the "Marseillaise" national anthem, while others shouted "Macron resign!" or "Free Christophe," a reference to the ex-boxer filmed viciously beating two officers during last week's protest.For the first time organisers of the Paris march deployed teams wearing white arm bands to corral the march that began near the Place de la Bastille.Meanwhile, around 4,800 yellow vest protesters, according to local authorities were marching in Bourges, a provincial capital with a renowned Gothic cathedral and picturesque wood-framed houses. Online groups mounted calls over the past week for actions in the town because of its location in the center of France.Authorities deployed 80,000 security forces nationwide for the anti-government protests. The protesters began to disperse as night fell, however, and police began removing armoured vehicles and trucks in an atmosphere of relative calm.

France’s mass “yellow vest” protests continue to grow in 2019 - Demonstrations by French “yellow vest” protesters on Saturday, January 12, grew again, amid rising opposition among broad layers of the population to President Emmanuel Macron. Interior Ministry sources claimed 84,000 people demonstrated in the ninth straight weekend of mass protests against Macron, compared to 50,000 the week before—figures that, as even the official press noted, seemed to be substantial underestimates.As the “yellow vest” protesters marched, teachers who have joined “red pen” groups on social media, inspired by the “yellow vests,” to protest cuts to school funding and living standards by successive French governments, also held rallies and marched in several cities across France. The fact that sections of workers are advancing social demands in alliance with the “yellow vests,” points to the growing strength of opposition and protest in France. There is also growing awareness of the mounting social struggles in Europe and America. Protests took place in cities across France. A special protest called in the smaller city of Bourges, near the center of France, went ahead, as over 6,300 “yellow vests” defied a ban from the police prefecture, penetrating the police security perimeter around the center of town. Riot police charged the protesters and made 18 arrests. “Yellow vest” protesters also peacefully escorted BFM-TV reporters away from the city in retaliation for the channel’s attacks on the “yellow vest” movement.

French Riot Police Deploy Semi-Automatic Weapons Against Yellow Vests As Macron Loses Grip On Country --French riot police were pictured brandishing Heckler & Koch G36 semi-automatic rifles with 30-round magazines near the Arc de Triomphe in Paris on Saturday afternoon, reports the Daily Mail.  The deployment of rifles with presumably live ammunition visible through the magazine is an intimidating escalation as President Emmanuel Macron continues to lose his grip over France following nine weeks of country-wide protests by the Gilet Jaunes (Yellow Vest) movement. The Gilet Jaunes began as a demonstration against a climate change-linked fuel tax, which quickly morphed into a general anti-government protest against the Macron administration and the world's highest taxes. We're sure France's plege to send 1 billion euros to rebuild Iraq will help calm them down.  Riot police in France now armed with G36 assault rifles against unarmed civilians. https://t.co/NqglT52MTk   Yellow Vest demonstrator Gilles Caron told the Mail "The CRS with the guns were wearing riot control helmets and body armour – they were not a specialised firearms unit," adding "Their job was simply to threaten us with lethal weapons in a manner which is very troubling. We deserve some explanations."

Thousands of French teachers join “Red Pens” protest on Facebook - Inspired by mass “Yellow Vest” demonstrations launched on November 17 and organized on social media, tens of thousands of teachers across France are joining “Red Pens” Facebook groups to oppose funding cuts and poor working conditions in schools and call for a united struggle.Growing opposition among French teachers is part of a rise of the class struggle among teachers and other sections of workers internationally. In Los Angeles, the second-largest school district in the United States, tens of thousands of teachers are set to strike today to demand increased funding and oppose the expansion of for-profit charter schools.Last year witnessed statewide strikes by educators in West Virginia, Oklahoma and Arizona, which developed—particularly in the case of West Virginia—into a rebellion against the national education unions, which worked to smother the strikes and impose sellout agreements on the teachers.Significantly, as with the US teachers’ strikes and the Yellow Vest protests, the movement among French teachers is developing on social media largely outside the control of the education unions, which have collaborated with successive governments to cut wages and slash classroom conditions. The “Stylos Rouges” (Red Pens) group was established on December 12 in response to the Yellow Vest protests and has since been joined by more than 60,000 Facebook users. Teachers are posting comments on the impact of decades of education spending cuts, which have forced them to work long hours at home, led to overflowing classes of more than 35 students and cut wages to levels that are impossible to live on.

Macron unveils ‘great national debate’ to calm protests - French President Emmanuel Macron on Sunday spelled out the questions underpinning his "great national debate", a public consultation aiming to quell "yellow vest" anger after nearly two months of sometimes violent protests. Macron made his appeal in a "letter to the French" released on Sunday, following the ninth consecutive Saturday of nationwide "yellow vest" rallies which saw an uptick in turnout. The protests have become the biggest crisis of Macron's presidency and he hopes that returning to the more participative democracy he promised in his 2017 grassroots campaign will satisfy the protesters' demands for a greater say in the running of the country, amid accusations that he is too aloof and his policies favour the wealthy. Macron said the debates are "neither an election nor a referendum" and would revolve around 35 questions on issues such as taxation, democracy, the environment and immigration. "I intend to transform anger into solutions," he said in the letter, which had been due to published on Monday, but was released by his office late Sunday. "Your proposals will help build a new contract for the nation, organising the actions of the government and parliament, but also France's positions at the European and international levels," he said. The questions that will be debated include: "Which taxes do you think should be lowered first?", "Should some public services that are out of date or too expensive be eliminated?", "What concrete proposals do you think would accelerate our environmental transition?" and "Should we use more referendums?". While Macron assured that there were "no forbidden questions", he did say that the right to seek asylum "could not be questioned".

 Europe Could "Collapse" Over Migration Says Italy PM; Salvini Insists "Paris-Berlin Axis" Must Change - Italy's Prime Minister, Giuseppe Conte, said on Monday that the European Union risks collapsing unless it is able to find common ground on mass migration. "If we continue to stall without a shared path, we risk bringing down the European building," Conte remarked at a press conference discussing a recent meeting in Rome with European Home Affairs Commissioner Dimitris Avramopoulos. "We presented what Italy has done up to now to Avramopoulos," said Conte, adding "We are bringing in a change of direction that is bearing fruit."While discussing Italian efforts to curb mass migration, Conte said: Italy had been left alone and now are are coping alone. We didn't talk about a naval blockade with Avramopoulos but we discussed instruments to defend the borders, which is a very important issue for managing (migrant) flows." Avramopoulos also met with Italy's Deputy Prime Minister and Interior Minister Matteo Salvini, who has led the country's tough stance against NGO-operated migrant transport ships across the mediterranean to Italian ports. Salvini, speaking with RAI's Tg2 bulletin, Salvini knocked France and Germany for "dictating legislature" over the past decade, adding that he and his allies in other EU countries "want to change Europe, not destroy it," reports Bloomberg.

Refugees in the Channel are risking everything because of western intervention in the Middle East - A black rubber inflatable boat was found abandoned earlier this week on the shingle at Dungeness on the Kent coast. Eight men, reportedly Iranians or Kurds, were later found close to the beach or in the nearby village of Lydd. An Iranian living in south London was later charged with helping the migrants to cross the Channel illegally from France to the UK.   Sea crossings by small numbers of asylum seekers are highly publicised because the short but dangerous voyage makes good television. The number of migrants over a period of months is in the low hundreds, but politicians believe that the impact of their arrival is high, as was shown by the home secretary, Sajid Javid, rushing back from holiday and declaring the crossings “a major incident”.Nobody forgets the effect of pictures of columns of Syrian refugees, far away from UK in central Europe, had on the Brexit referendum in 2016.  Three days after the little inflatable boat beached at Dungeness, the US secretary of state Mike Pompeo made a speech in Cairo outlining the Trump Middle East policy, which inadvertently goes a long way to explain how the dinghy got there. After criticising former president Obama for being insufficiently belligerent, Pompeo promised that the US would “use diplomacy and work with our partners to expel every last Iranian boot” from Syria; and that sanctions on Iran – and presumably Syria – will be rigorously imposed.Just how this is to be done is less clear, but Pompeo insisted that the US will wage military and economic war in Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq and Syria, which inevitably means that normal life will be impossible in all of these places.Though the US and its allies are unlikely to win any victories against Iran or Bashar al-Assad, the US can keep a permanent crisis simmering across a swathe of countries between the Pakistan border and the Mediterranean, thereby ensuring in the long term that a portion of the 170 million people living in this vast area will become so desperate that they will take every risk and spend the last of their money to flee to Western Europe. Keep in mind that these crises tend to cross-infect each other, so instability in Syria means instability in Iraq.

Airbus faces a major disruption in a no-deal Brexit - A pan-European corporation with operations scattered across the continent, Airbus is an apt poster child for the potential fallout from a no-deal Brexit. The world’s only rival to Boeing emerged over decades from a sweeping regional consolidation of the industry – it still has deep roots in France, Germany, Britain and Spain, with major factories in each of these countries.Wings for the Airbus models are built in Britain, so that a hard Brexit would mean a massive disruption in the supply chain. More than that, it is unclear whether Britain would remain a member in the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) and whether wings built in Britain could even be used on Airbus planes.“That could be a very troubling situation for us and in the end could lead to a suspension of production,” Airbus CEO Tom Enders warned months ago. The company has been building up inventories and telling suppliers to get EASA certification now. But a three-months’ supply of components hardly solves the bigger issue of how Airbus could continue to produce airplanes with British parts.Loss of the business would be a disaster for Britain. There are 14,000 directly employed at Airbus, with 4,000 British suppliers employing 100,000 people. The cost to Airbus would be considerable, with estimates ranging from hundreds of millions of euros to a billion, especially if the company has to build new factories.

‘We Should Not Be Afraid of No Deal’ - Der Spiegel. Interview with David Davis. -British Tory party politician David Davis, 70, served as the newly created secretary of state for exiting the European Union from 2016 to 2018. He resigned from that position in July because he rejected Prime Minister Theresa May's efforts to secure a so-called "soft" Brexit. If May fails to secure parliamentary approval for the Brexit deal she secured with the EU during a vote next week, it's possible she will have to resign. If that happens, Davis is considered a favorite for succeeding her at 10 Downing Street.  In an interview, former British cabinet minister David Davis says he believes the Brexit deal between the EU and Britain will ultimately fail. The politician also expresses doubts about the predicted chaos that could spark.

Brexit: one problem at a time - David Davis has been talking to Spiegel, repeating the same nostrums he has been pushing through the UK media: we should not be afraid of a no-deal.Dismissing fears of food shortages and other "scare stories", he also asserted that it is unlikely that (the ferry traffic between) Calais and Dover will "choke up", arguing that "the head of French customs has already said they could change the inspection regime to make sure that business runs smoothly". If that is not possible, he says, "we can move 40 percent of the trade from Dover-Calais to other ports". Practical concerns are "real" but "limited" and there "may well be lorry queues". We "may even see some hostile action by European states" but within a year, "everything will be ironed out".For that, we can at least thank Mr Davis for setting out what amounts to the ERG position – an incurable, unsupported optimism that brooks no argument: there may be limited problems with a no-deal Brexit but, after a year, everything will be fine. And even though nothing of what Davis says is true, in the final analysis, the only certain way to challenge this thesis is to let it happen. Nevertheless, we can bring forward more refined predictions, using a far better standard of evidence, which would suggest that Davis is wrong – very wrong. That, in fact, we've already done, but against the torrent of misinformation and indifference, it is not enough. But this is not just our failure. Such is the febrile nature of the debate that there is no one who could turn the tide. There are those with far greater ranking and influence than we enjoy, who also complain that they are not being given a hearing. With a prime minister notorious for her secretive behaviour and her lack of responsiveness, there is no hope of influencing events from the outside. Not even parliament is capable of making the lady turn. Most likely, the die is cast and we will end up with the accidental no-deal scenario. There is always a chance, however, that MPs will bottle out and realise that a no-deal is not a credible option. While that may not change the outcome of next Tuesday's vote, I don't think many people expect this to be the last word. By whatever means, Mrs May is expected to manoeuvre parliament into another vote, which may or may not deliver the negotiated withdrawal agreement.  If parliament ends up ratifying the agreement, then we will have the benefit of the transitional period, which will buy us some time – and then open the debate to embrace our future relationship with the EU. That should keep us occupied for a few years, while the talks are in progress.

MoD sends planners to ministries over post-Brexit border fears -Military planners have been deployed to the Department for Transport, the Home Office and the Foreign Office as officials desperately try to avoid backlogs and chaos at the border in the event of a no-deal Brexit, the Observer can disclose. Details released under the Freedom of Information Act reveal that 14 military planners have been dispatched by the Ministry of Defence to key ministries, which also include the Cabinet Office, the hub of the government’s Brexit planning, in a sign of concerns inside Whitehall at the prospect of Britain crashing out of the EU with no agreement in place.In a ramping up of no-deal preparations in recent weeks, one planner is in place at Chris Grayling’s beleaguered DfT, which has already been criticised for awarding a £14m contract to run ferries in the event of a no-deal Brexit to a company that does not have any ships.The transport secretary has also been criticised for a live rehearsal of emergency traffic measures that will be put in place to prevent logjams around Dover in such a scenario.Some drivers taking part in the event described it as a waste of time, while haulage campaigners said it was “too little, too late”.Four planners have been posted in the Border Force, which is facing the challenge of keeping passengers and goods flowing to and from Britain should no EU agreement be signed. Three are operating in the Foreign Office, while six are working from the Cabinet Office.The departments involved refused to comment on why they had requested a military planner, or what projects they were assisting. A Defence ministry spokesman said: “The MoD routinely works with other government departments on planning for a range of contingency scenarios.” Insiders said some departments had asked for assistance on no-deal planning, “recognising the unique skills and operational planning experience the military can offer”.

Brexit: politicians at their lowest ebb in history - Booker is in reflective mood in his column this week, writing under the headline: "If the Brexit negotiations are a game of chess, Theresa May is dangerously close to checkmate".Two years ago, after Theresa May's fateful decision that she wanted us not just to leave the EU but to shut ourselves off from "frictionless" access to the export market which provides one pound in every eight we earn as a nation, he tells us that he wrote that we seemed to be embarking on a game of snakes and ladders. But in this game we were determined to avoid every ladder that might help us to climb the board towards the desired goal, and to seek out every snake which would slide us back down again to square one. Another sporting analogy since used by others has been that which chess players call zugzwang. This is where a player reaches a position where any subsequent move will be disastrous for him. Such is the position we have boxed ourselves into today, where MPs are this week faced with a choice between the devil and the raging sea. On one hand our MPs can vote for a deal imposed on us by the EU, which would leave us much worse off than we are now. On the other, we can drop out of the EU  with "no deal" for what Mrs May only coyly calls "uncharted territory" although she must now realise this would be a far greater disaster than her own "bad deal".

EU preparing to delay Brexit until at least July - The EU is preparing to delay Brexit until at least July after concluding that Theresa May is doomed to fail in getting her deal through parliament. The country’s 29 March deadline for exiting the EU is now regarded by Brussels as highly unlikely to be met given the domestic opposition facing the prime minister and it is expecting a request from London to extend article 50 in the coming weeks. A special leaders’ summit to push back Brexit day is expected to be convened by the European council president, Donald Tusk, once a UK request is received. EU officials said the length of the prolongation of the negotiating period allowed under article 50 would be determined based on the reason put forward by May for the delay. A “technical” extension until July is a probable first step to give May extra time to revise and ratify the current deal once Downing Street has a clear idea as to what will command a majority in the Commons. An EU official said: “Should the prime minister survive and inform us that she needs more time to win round parliament to a deal, a technical extension up to July will be offered.” Senior EU sources said that a further, lengthier extension could be offered at a later date should a general election or second referendum be called although the upcoming May elections for the European parliament would create complications.

Theresa May says no Brexit more likely than no deal - Theresa May has warned opponents of her Brexit deal that they risk "letting the British people down" as Labour said the prime minister faced a "humiliating defeat" in Tuesday's crunch vote. She urged critics to give the deal "a second look", insisting new assurances on the Irish border had "legal force". She said the "history books" would judge if MPs delivered on Brexit while safeguarding the economy and security. But Jeremy Corbyn said the PM had "completely and utterly failed". And the SNP said the PM was "in fantasy land and the government should stop threatening no-deal". MPs will vote on the terms of the UK's withdrawal from the EU and declaration on future relations on Tuesday evening. Labour and the other opposition parties will vote against the deal while about 100 Conservative MPs, and the Democratic Unionist Party's 10 MPs, could also join them. Both Mrs May and Mr Corbyn met their backbenchers after the PM's Commons statement on Monday night - the PM to appeal once more for their support and the Labour leader to reiterate his plan to call for a general election if the deal is rejected. Mr Corbyn also told his MPs a no confidence vote in the prime minister would be "coming soon", according to BBC political correspondent Iain Watson.

Brexit: EU offers reassurances to May, says it wants temporary backstop The EU has promised British MPs that the use of a contentious backstop plan for Northern Ireland will be “as short as possible”, in an exchange of letters aimed at bolstering British prime minister Theresa May ahead of a historic House of Commons vote on her Brexit deal. The three-page letter from Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission, and Donald Tusk, European Council president, includes no significant revisions or additions to the terms of Britain’s Brexit package. But the two leaders stress they expect any use of the Irish backstop - which many Brexiters say would “trap” the UK in a customs arrangement with the EU - would be “temporary” and replaced “as quickly as possible”. While Mr Juncker and Mr Tusk’s assurances could help Mrs May remind MPs of the main elements of her deal, they fall short of UK requests to insert a new target date for both sides to make efforts to ensure that the backstop would only be used for a year, if it had to be triggered at all. The letter came as Mrs May warned eurosceptic MPs that rejecting the package risked “paralysis” in parliament and “no Brexit”. Mrs May said she believed parliament blocking Brexit was now a more likely outcome than the UK leaving without a deal. “It’s now my judgment that a more likely outcome is a paralysis in parliament that risks no Brexit,” she said on a visit to Stoke-on-Trent, a heavily Leave-voting Midlands city. “There are some in Westminster who would wish to delay or even stop Brexit and who will use every device available to them to do so.”

A nation ‘bored of Brexit’ risks sleepwalking into disaster -You might imagine the surrounding streets would be full of anxiety and urgency. But once BMW had declined my request to visit the factory and I had resigned myself to long hours spent vox-popping, I was not entirely surprised to find the complete opposite: questions about Brexit being met with an exasperated indifference, as if it were something in which people were barely interested.  Those who mentioned the factory assured me that it was in Cowley to stay. Among a couple of diehard leave supporters there was mention of Winston Churchill, and a suggestion that another referendum would be an offence against democracy. But most of my interviewees confirmed polling that has suggested a majority of both leavers and remainers now find Brexit boring, greeting any mention of it with grimaces and eye-rolling.“It’s a pain in the backside,” said one man. “Nobody seems to know what’s going on. Every channel you turn on, it’s all they talk about. I’ve had enough of it.”In 2016, he had voted leave. Did he have any sense of a way through the current mess? “I don’t know what the answer is now,” he says. “They’ve confused it so much.” He appeared to tilt towards staying in the EU, then leaned the other way. At the start of a week when the parliamentary drama around Brexit will reach fever pitch, all this is worth bearing in mind. Whatever the noise from Westminster, for millions of people Brexit is something that happened two and a half years ago. It has since become synonymous with an indecipherable cacophony about cabinet splits, customs unions and the kind of arcana that might convulse Twitter but leaves most people cold. Clearly, this highlights a huge political failure – not least on the part of the supposed party of opposition – and a debate so distant from the public that any resolution of the country’s malaise seems pretty much impossible.  To outsiders, it must look like a kind of bizarre collective decadence: a watershed moment, replete with huge dangers, that will define our future for decades to come, being played out in the midst of widespread public boredom. Some of this is undoubtedly down to the fact that the realities of Brexit, whether with a deal or without, have yet to arrive. But much deeper things are at play: age-old traits that run particularly deep in England, and much newer changes in how politics reaches its audience.

‘Brexit boxes’: Hundreds sold as Britons stock up for no-deal food supply disruption Hundreds of Britons have spent £300 on “Brexit boxes” to prepare for disruption to food supplies when the UK leaves the EU.The government has said that there is no need to stockpile but some concerned consumers have stocked up regardless, boosting business for suppliers of emergency food. Leeds-based Emergency Food Storage UK has been selling freeze-dried food for a decade but has seen a jump in demand since launching its Brexit box a month ago. Company director James Blake said he has sold 600 of the boxes, which retail at £300 and each contain a one-month supply of freeze-dried meals and packs of dried meat that can be combined with other food such as pasta. The boxes also include a water filter and firelighter system. The product has been much more popular than expected and has helped to drive up sales of the company’s other emergency food products, Mr Blake said. Asked whether people would really need to turn to such supplies because of Brexit, he said: “People need to be prepared. What they do is entirely up to them but people should have a bit of forward planning so that they can feel more confident if something happens that they have a few days’ worth of food there to fall back on.” “It may all go swimmingly and everything will turn out fine, but I’m not sure that’s going to happen. No one seems to know what’s going on at the moment.” He added: “If the worst happens, the predictions are correct and there is chaos at border, that would be a catastrophe. None of us want this.”

EU offers Brexit reassurance but no changes to deal - The EU published an exchange of letters with Theresa May containing reassurances about the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement, but not changes to the deal.The EU can’t offer guarantees, but in the letter from Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and Council President Donald Tusk it is hoping to convince British MPs that the “backstop” really is an emergency — and temporary step — to be triggered only in the absence of a broader deal on future relations. In the letter, they warn they cannot offer any new binding guarantees.“As you know, we are not in a position to agree to anything that changes or is inconsistent with the Withdrawal Agreement,” they write.But they then lay out a series of points that they said they are “happy to confirm … within our respective fields of responsibility.”It is unclear if the letter will be enough to help May win ratification of the Withdrawal Agreement in the House of Commons on Tuesday.In their letter, the two presidents say the EU is committed in “the most solemn manner” to achieve a deal on a future relationship that would avoid the backstop.“On the 13 December, the European Council decided on a number of additional assurances, in particular as regards its firm commitment to work speedily on a subsequent agreement that establishes by 31 December 2020 alternative arrangements, so that the backstop will not need to be triggered,” Juncker and Tusk wrote.

Theresa May ‘will have to stand down’ if she suffers heavy defeat in Brexit vote, Cabinet ministers suggest - Theresa May will be expected to stand down if she loses Tuesday night’s crucial vote on her Brexit deal as heavily as predicted, Cabinet sources have said.More than 100 Tory MPs have insisted they will oppose the deal, putting Mrs May on course to break a series of unwelcome Parliamentary records.She launched a last-ditch attempt to win over the rebels on Monday, producing a letter from Brussels promising that the Northern Ireland backstop would be temporary and “not a threat or a trap”. On Tuesday night Mrs May will make one final bid to change MPs’ minds when she closes the five-day debate on the Brexit deal, having already warned the Commons that “when the history books are written” MPs...

Historic defeat for Theresa May on Brexit vote — British MPs rejected Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal by a record-breaking 230 votes, shrouding the U.K.'s path out of the European Union with doubt.The vote in the House of Commons — 432 against and 202 for — means that the Withdrawal Agreement struck between May's government and the EU in November last year has fallen at the first hurdle. It must be ratified by the U.K. and European parliaments before it can come into force.May’s government will face a no confidence vote in the House of Commons on Wednesday, spearheaded by opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn. However, May’s Conservative party and parliamentary allies are expected to continue to support her despite the scale of the defeat being the largest any government has suffered since World War I.The previous record was set by Ramsay MacDonald's minority government in 1924 who lost a division by 166 votes. The prime minister said that, if her government is not toppled tomorrow, she will seek cross-party talks aimed at finding a way forward that can secure a majority in the House of Commons, and pledged to re-open talks with the EU if an alternative strategy is agreed.

May Faces Worst Government Defeat in 95 Years in Brexit Vote - Prime Minister Theresa May is set to see her Brexit deal rejected in the biggest Parliamentary defeat for a British government in 95 years after her last minute pleas for support appeared to fall on deaf ears. The battle now is over not whether May loses, but how badly. At least 70 of her Conservative Party, as well as sometime allies in the Democratic Unionist Party, are publicly pledged to join opposition Members of Parliament in voting against her agreement Tuesday. That would translate into a defeat by a margin of 150 or more, the largest in over a century. Even if some abstain, a defeat by more than 100 would be the worst since 1924. May postponed a vote before Christmas in the hope of winning over Parliament with new concessions from Brussels over the so-called backstop intended to ensure the post-Brexit Irish border stays open, but EU leaders’ letters of reassurance were treated with scorn in the House of Commons Monday. Diplomats are now working on the assumption that exit day will be delayed beyond March 29. Markets and the EU will be watching Tuesday’s results, scheduled to start at 7 p.m., and the margin of a government defeat will affect how they both respond. A defeat by more than 220 votes could see sterling fall to $1.225, according to Neil Jones, head of hedge-fund currency sales at Mizuho Bank. Meanwhile, a margin of less than 60 would leave some room for hope, several EU officials said last week, and the bloc may look at fresh ways of making the agreement more palatable to get it across the line.

UK leader Theresa May suffers resounding defeat on her Brexit divorce deal - U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May has overwhelmingly lost a crucial vote on her Brexit plans in the House of Commons, the U.K.’s lower house of parliament. May lost by 230 votes after lawmakers voted by 432 to 202 to reject the deal. Politicians from different political parties rejected the proposed Withdrawal Agreement, currently the only deal agreed with the European Union on how Britain should exit the bloc in March of this year. It’s reportedly the largest defeat for a sitting government in U.K. political history. Despite the result, and expressing a defiant tone, May told lawmakers that she wanted to show those who voted to leave the EU that it was her “duty to deliver” on Brexit. No confidence vote due Meanwhile, the leader of the opposition Labour party, Jeremy Corbyn, said he would now table a motion of no confidence in the government during parliamentary business on Wednesday. Ian Blackford, the leader of the Scottish National Party — which is the third largest party in the parliament — confirmed that it would support Labour’s motion. May’s deal with Europe is seen by some as a sell-out to the ideals of Brexit, reducing Britain’s influence while staying within many of the EU’s rules. And many of those who oppose Brexit didn’t like the deal either. They have argued that it will reduce Britain’s ease of trade with the world, repel global talent, and increase the cost of living. The result creates a political vacuum in the Brexit process, with no firm certainty as to what might happen next. Potential outcomes range from a revised attempt by May to force her plan through, a second Brexit referendum or even a General Election. May added on Tuesday evening that she would now make a statement to the Commons on Monday 21 where she is due to present a “plan B” for the exit agreement.

EU budget implications of a no-deal Brexit -The United Kingdom’s financial contribution to the liabilities of the European Union – the so-called ‘exit fee’ – is, in my view, a less important aspect of Brexit. The amounts at stake are small relative to GDP both for the EU and the UK, and there are many more important issues that could also have larger direct budgetary impacts than the exit fee. For example, I regard the future trade, services and immigration partnerships – which will affect economic growth and thereby direct budget revenues – as more important matters than the exit fee. Similarly, non-economic issues like security and defence cooperation, visa-free travel, aviation cooperation, nuclear safety and food safety are also crucial aspects of Brexit. Yet it can be useful to quantify the exit fee, because the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit has increased and in such a case the UK might not contribute to the EU budget at all starting from March 30th 2019. Thereby, EU member states should stand ready to fill the eventual gap rather soon. In this post I focus on the current multi-annual financial framework (MFF) in order to assess the near-term (2019 and 2020) necessary extra contribution to the EU budget in case of zero UK contribution after Brexit. After making certain assumptions and simplifications (see the end of the post), I find that in an extreme scenario – in which the UK will not contribute at all after 29 March 2019, and EU spending in the UK fully stops that day – the total Brexit hole in the EU budget for March 30th 2019-December 31st 2020 could amount to about €16.5 billion, or 0.066% of EU27 gross national income (GNI). This figure relates to the extra transfer needed by members states to the EU budget, yet an offsetting factor is the 20% of customs duties on imports from the UK retained by member states, which could amount to €0.8 billion in the same period (80% of customs duty revenues go to the EU budget and 20% is retained by the member states). Thereby, the extra direct financial burden on the public budgets of the 27 members states would be €15.7 billion, or 0.062% of GNI. This estimation can be considered as an upper limit for the Brexit hole for the following main reasons:

Brexit: Chaos  by Yves Smith - In November, we said that Brexit look destined to produce a state change, when so much energy had been pumped into the system that it became chaotic, like water becoming steam. The jaw-dropping 230 vote magnitude of the defeat of May’s Withdrawal Agreement was worse than even the pessimistic score-keepers expected. This was a Napoleon-goes-to-Moscow level defeat, the worst loss a Government has ever suffered on a major vote.  Despite this epic defeat, May is expected to survive a no-confidence vote today, which she pressed the opposition to lodge. It was the one fillip she could get. The Tories aren’t about to hand power to Labour and the DUP will vote with them. But the spectacle of a complete failure as a leader still soldiering on is without precedent in the UK. The UK is in the midst of a legitimacy crisis. Reader David summed it up well: You’re about to see the unfolding of a political crisis the like of which happens in the Western world once a generation, if that. The combination of an essentially insoluble problem, an incompetent government, an enfeebled civil service, a bitterly divided political system, and government by convention and precedent rather than constitution, has produced a situation in which almost any outcome, including the most extreme, is possible. The effects on the British political system (and whether, indeed, it survives at all) are the real issue here, not Brexit, no matter how important that objectively is. Whilst I think the “sleepwalking” idea from the Grauniad is overstated, a more dangerous, related, worry is that Britain has had hundreds of years of political stability, and people assume that such stability (itself preceded by violence and revolution) will just go on forever. It may, but it also might not. And whereas in France, Spain or Germany, say, violent changes of political system are understood and lived with, that’s not the case in Britain. Politico took up the same theme:British politics is broken. It may not be fixable in time to solve the Brexit mess.The U.K. wakes up Wednesday with a government unable to govern — in office, but without the numbers to fulfill its central purpose: a negotiated exit from the European Union.A defeat of previously unimaginable proportions Tuesday — 432 to 202 — has left the country adrift, floating towards no deal, with no party or faction in parliament able to command a majority for any way of moving off the course it has set for itself. The only thing MPs can agree strongly on is a desire to avoid an economically damaging no deal, but they currently can’t settle on a mechanism for how to do so. And I hate to be mean to Labour, but they deserve it. Corbyn is still fixated on the idea of triggering a GE and taking power when he’s still deep in unicorn phase. Even last weekend, Corbyn finally conceded that Brexit might need to be delayed in the event of a general election, and then didn’t back down when he was asked how he could negotiate a new deal in three months. So Corbyn and May are stuck on the exact same failed strategy that they can somehow wrest a better deal from Brussels.

Brexit: Labour threatens to bring no confidence vote ‘again and again and again’  Labour tonight threatened to bring a no confidence vote in the government "again and again and again". Theresa May will face the historic vote tomorrow night after suffering the worst ever Commons defeat on her Brexit deal. But her government is expected to win the vote - and avoid a general election - because her DUP allies will back her thanks to the £1.5bn bung she handed the party in 2017. Fortunately for Labour the party can call unlimited no confidence votes - a prospect Jeremy Corbyn's spokesman refused to rule out. And tonight Corbyn loyalist Richard Burgon went much further. The Shadow Justice Secretary told BBC News: "If we don't win this no confidence vote this time, then we can bring it again and again and again if necessary.

Ministers split over whether May should soften Brexit deal after defeat - Conservative MPs voiced shock and concern at the scale of the defeat of Theresa May’s Brexit deal, as cabinet ministers split over whether the prime minister should prioritise her overtures towards the Democratic Unionist party or Labour MPs. “I hoped for less than 100,” one minister said. “The numbers really are unbelievable. But it does show that is the absolute limit to the hard Brexiter support.” May suffers heaviest parliamentary defeat of a British PM in the democratic era Read more Should the prime minister win her no-confidence vote on Wednesday, May said she would seek to find a consensus across the house by speaking to various factions in the Tory party, as well as senior opposition politicians. “We want to leave with a deal and we want to work with others who share that,” May’s spokesman said. Shell-shocked cabinet ministers were expected to renew a push for May to hold a series of indicative votes on the options before parliament, which one No 10 source said May instinctively opposed. Others would push for her to prioritise getting new and firm commitments from her confidence and supply partners, the DUP. Other senior Conservative sources voiced strong reservations as to whether May’s red lines, including on a customs union and free movement, would be able to hold in her discussions with opposition MPs.

Boris Johnson says there is STILL time to renegotiate the Brexit deal without delaying Britain’s departure from the EU – as he says he WILL back May in confidence vote Boris Johnson last night insisted the Brexit deal can be renegotiated without delaying Britain's departure from the bloc. The former foreign secretary said he did not 'rejoice' in the massive defeat suffered by Theresa May, but demanded that she ditches the Irish border backstop and takes a 'fresh approach'. He dismissed the idea that would mean extending the Article 50 process, which has just 10 weeks left to run, saying most of the other terms were 'fine'. Mr Johnson also confirmed that he will back the PM in a no-confidence vote being called by Jeremy Corbyn tonight. Mrs May's has been left clinging on to power by her fingernails after 118 Tory rebels joined forces with Labour to trounce her Brexit plan by 432 votes to 202. Boris Johnson said he did not 'rejoice' in the massive defeat suffered by Theresa May, but demanded that she ditches the Irish border backstop and takes a 'fresh approach'   The majority of 230 was by far the biggest on record, higher than the 166 defeat for the Labour minority government in 1924. Rising to her feet moments after the drubbing, a clearly shaken Mrs May said the government will now 'listen'. Mr Johnson told Sky News that the margin of defeat was 'bigger than I expected'. ‘It’s no particular cause for rejoicing for me, after all I’ve been trying for so long to get the government back in the place the PM was in her Lancaster House speech last year,' he said.

Theresa May’s Conservative government survives no-confidence vote -- Theresa May’s government survived a no-confidence vote Wednesday night brought by Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn. MPs voted by 325 to 306 with all 314 MPs of her divided Conservative Party voting to keep the government in office. They were joined by the 10 MPs of the Democratic Unionist Party and an independent unionist.All the opposition parties—Labour, Scottish National Party, Liberal Democrats and Green voted against the government. But the most striking aspect of the evening is how May, her hard-Brexit Environment Secretary Michael Gove and other Tories were able to utilise the naked hostility of the Blairites to their own leader, and barely concealed opposition to a general election, to frame the debate as a vote of no confidence in Corbyn.Corbyn called the no-confidence vote Tuesday evening, immediately after May suffered the biggest parliamentary defeat for a prime minister in history as her Brexit deal with the European Union (EU) was rejected by MPs by a 230-vote majority.Corbyn tabled the vote only after months of prevarication during which he has demonstrated to the ruling elite that he will do nothing to destabilise British imperialism as it moves into unchartered territory, with the scheduled date for Brexit less than 80 days away.Corbyn said he would only table a vote of no confidence at a time when it was most likely to be successful. But whereas the Tory hard Brexit wing and May’s governing partners—the Democratic Unionist Party—were ready to join the opposition to spike May’s deal, there was never any possibility they would trigger a general election that could bring Corbyn to Number 10. Corbyn’s motion was pro-forma—such that when his Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell was asked by the BBC’s Today programme Wednesday morning whether Labour would continue to “niggle” the government if it lost the vote, he replied, “No we’re not doing that.”

Brexit: Chasing Their Tails -- Yves Smith - Despite the high drama of the last two days, much less has changed on HMS Brexit than ought to have. For instance, even though the catastrophic defeat of May’s Withdrawal Agreement should have led the Prime Minister to get serious about a Plan B, it’s not evident that she’s unveil anything next Monday other than a reheated Plan A: go back to the EU for more concessions theater. May and Hammond are singing from different hymnals. Hammond has gotten out ahead of the Prime Minister and has bee slapped down before. Is this to be one of those times? From May in Question Time Wednesday:  There are actually two ways of avoiding no deal. The first is to agree a deal, and the second would be to revoke article 50. That would mean staying in the European Union and failing to respect the result of the referendum, and that is something that this Government will not do.  From Hammond, per the Telegraph in Exclusive: Philip Hammond tells business chiefs MPs will stop no-deal Brexit:Philip Hammond told business leaders that the “threat” of a no-deal Brexit could be taken “off the table” within days and potentially lead to Article 50 “rescinded”, a leaked recording of a conference call reveals. The Chancellor set out how a backbench Bill could effectively be used to stop any prospect of no deal. He suggested that ministers may even back the plan when asked for an “assurance” by the head of Tesco that the Government would not oppose the motion. He claimed next week’s Bill, which could force the Government to extend Article 50, was likely to win support and act as the “ultimate backstop” against a no-deal Brexit, as a “large majority in the Commons is opposed to no deal under any circumstances”. A recording of the call, passed to The Daily Telegraph, recounts how the Chancellor, Greg Clark, the Business Secretary, and Stephen Barclay, the Brexit Secretary, spent nearly an hour talking to the leaders of 330 leading firms. They included the heads of Siemens, Amazon, Scottish Power, Tesco and BP, all of whom warned against no deal. So are Hammond and Clark free-lancing against May? And even if this backbenchers’ bill passes, it does not stop a no-deal Brexit. As we’ve said before, and Clive hammered home again in comments yesterday, Parliament would have to pass secondary legislation amending the hard coding of the Brexit date in the Withdrawal Act or revoke it entirely, and send in an Article 50 revocation notice. Anything less is just faffing about.

Brexit- the noes to the left -- To no one's surprise at all, Mrs May has survived her ordeal by confidence motion. she has emerged with 325 votes in her pocket, as against the 306 who would have her consigned to outer darkness. This effectively removes any immediate threat of a general election and let the prime minister live to fight another day. However, whether Mrs May has staved off a crisis or merely deferred it remains to be seen. She is now required on Monday formally to present to the House an amendable motion that sets out the details of how her government plans to proceed with Brexit.  And it is at this point when, we are told, backbench plotters aim to introduce a Bill which would force the Government to take the threat of a no-deal Brexit off the table within a matter of days.  The precise mechanism for this is unclear. One version has it that the plotters are seeking to give parliament the power to revoke the Article 50 notice. This could then be used as leverage, in the first instance to prevent the government going down the no-deal road.  While this is being put in place, supposedly the plan over the next few days is to work up a series of proposals "with senior parliamentarians in other parties" to put to government as a basis for renegotiating the Withdrawal Agreement with Brussels – to which effect the government will be "forced" to ask for an extension to the Article 50 period, to give time for the negotiations to take place.  This report also seems to introduce another version of his Bill. It says that if the prime minister has not secured a compromise Bill and got it through Parliament by the end of the first week of March, then she would be legally mandated to write to the EU and ask for a nine month extension to Article 50. That, we are told, "would stop no deal Brexit happening".

Labour in crisis as MPs defy Jeremy Corbyn to attend Brexit talks - Labour MPs defied Jeremy Corbyn’s appeal to boycott Downing Street talks on Brexit as it emerged that a second Brexit referendum would take a year to arrange. Hilary Benn and Yvette Cooper, two of the party’s most senior backbench figures, led a parade of Labour MPs attending talks with Theresa May and other senior cabinet ministers.Mr Corbyn refused last night to see Mrs May until the option of leaving the EU without a deal was removed. He urged other Labour frontbenchers to snub invitations in an emailed letter but his appeal was ignored as both he and the prime minister struggled to maintain control. In addition to Mr Benn and Ms Cooper, Labour MPs seen arriving for negotiations in the Cabinet Office included Stephen Kinnock, John Mann and Ben Bradshaw.Meanwhile, it has emerged that a second Brexit referendum would take a year to arrange, according to an official paper prepared for Mrs May’s cross-party Brexit talks.Her spokeswoman admitted that officials had drawn up a paper on a referendum after Liz Saville-Roberts, the Plaid Cymru leader at Westminster, disclosed the details of her meeting with the prime minister.“The prime minister made it clear how much they'd already been looking at these areas themselves,” she told Sky News following her meeting in No 10 last night.The Welsh nationalist added: “We were able to go into some depth about the considerations. That was particularly interesting with her yesterday. Then today with Michael Gove and David Lidington we went into considerably more detail about what would be the necessary procedure to bring forward a People’s Vote: what the House would need to do, what the time requirements would be, what would be the necessity for Article 50.” It is understood that the short paper — described as a “single sheet of A4” — had included an estimate that it would take a year to arrange to hold a second vote. Campaigners insist that the necessary logistics, including legislation, could be compressed into a couple of months.

Corbyn could face string of resignations if he backs ‘people’s vote‘ Jeremy Corbyn could face up to a dozen resignations from the Labour frontbench if the party backs a second referendum as a way out of the Brexit crisis. A string of junior shadow ministers have told the Guardian they are strongly opposed to the idea of a second referendum, which they fear would expose Labour to a vicious backlash in leave-voting constituencies. The development follows another tense day of brinkmanship in Westminster between Theresa May and the Labour leader as they seek a way out of the crisis that has engulfed both major parties. Corbyn refused to enter talks with Theresa May on Thursday until she ruled out the idea of a no-deal departure, and demanded that his party’s MPs refuse similar invitations. Later May wrote to Corbyn telling him that ruling out no-deal was “an impossible condition” and calling on him to join cross-party discussions. With no sign of the impasse being broken, pressure is growing on Labour to consider a so-called people’s vote as the UK prepares to leave the EU on 29 March. With Corbyn’s hopes of a general election fading with the prime minister’s narrow victory in the no-confidence vote, some Labour supporters are raising pressure on Corbyn to support a second referendum. A snap poll conducted after the crushing defeat of May’s Brexit plan has found a 12-point lead for remaining in the EU – the largest margin since the 2016 vote. But the Guardian has contacted several senior shadow ministers from constituencies that voted to leave the EU who say they would consider their positions if Corbyn conceded to pressure to back a second referendum. One said: “I would be in a really difficult position if we backed a second referendum. I would have little choice but to stand down if I was to have any hope of retaining my seat and representing my constituents.” Another said they had made their views clear to Corbyn’s office and the shadow Brexit secretary, Keir Starmer.

Cabinet ministers warn May she will face mass-resignations unless she allows MPs to stop no-deal Brexit - Cabinet ministers have warned that Theresa May will face mass resignations if MPs are barred from trying to stop a no-deal Brexit. The Prime Minister said on Thursday that it is "impossible" to rule out a no-deal Brexit under the terms of Article 50 and warned that it "not in the Government's power" to do so. However as many as 20 mid-ranking ministers have indicated that they are prepared to quit the Government so they can support backbench moves to stop a no-deal Brexit. The Telegraph has learned that a delegation of five ministers from the group visited the Prime Minister in No 10 and warned her directly that they were prepared to quit. One Cabinet minister told The Telegraph: "I think that the Prime Minister will come under a lot of pressure to give ministers a free vote on it. "I personally think she would be wise to do that because she doesn't really want people to resign, and there are definitely people who would resign over it. "It is hard to see the Government defeating it if people vote in line with their views. It damages peoples credibility to have to take a leave of absence to avoid having to vote against something. I don't think people want to do that." The row erupted after The Telegraph obtained a leaked recording of a conference call between Philip Hammond and business leaders in which he set out how a backbench Bill could take no deal "off the table".

Will Brexit break up Labour or Tories first? Robert Peston, ITV - Which of the Conservative and Labour parties is most likely to split over Brexit? Or perhaps it is more apposite to say which party will break up first, since the gravitational force of competing visions of the UK's future relationship with the EU are threatening to fracture each of them. On my show last night the divisions in the Tory Party were on full display – with the chief secretary Liz Truss implying that the prime minister is wasting her time wooing party leaders to find a Brexit compromise, and should concentrate instead on reaching out to the 118 Tory MPs and the DUP’s 10 who voted against her. What Truss appears to believe is that if the EU can be persuaded to either remove the backstop or put a time limit on it, the PM’s deal would pass through the Commons. Which, for what it’s worth, is not what Theresa May thinks, according to those close to her: she has been persuaded, I understand, both that the EU won’t move enough on the backstop, and that even if it did she would not win a majority. So she has to explore whether if she softened or gave up some of her Brexit red lines, such as that a post-Brexit UK would not have the power to negotiate independent trade deals by being in the customs union forever, a cross-party alliance would carry the day for her. But both Liz Truss and the senior Tory Brexiter MP John Whittingdale made clear on the Peston show they would implacably oppose such a compromise. It would only work if May is content to see cabinet resignations and even MPs resigning from the party. That is why most Tories think the idea of a customs-union fudge has been allowed to become a talking point only to distract from the absence of a strategy that might actually work. As for Labour, it is either liberated or imprisoned by the Brexit process enshrined in that notorious motion passed at its last conference.

As UK’s EU withdrawal nears, Germany steps up Brexit prep - On Thursday, the German parliament passed a new law in preparation for Britain's impendingwithdrawal from the European Union. The Brexit transition legislation was passed unanimously by almost all political parties in the Bundestag — only the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) voted against the plan. The law, which would come into force when Britain formally leaves the EU and the so-called transitional phase begins, is supposed to create clarity for people likely to be affected by Brexit, especially British nationals living in Germany and Germans living in the UK. Perhaps most relevant for the almost 120,000 British people registered in Germany, the measure means that UK citizens would still be able to apply for citizenship during the transitional phase, which is expected to last until the end of 2020, with the date of their applications taken into special consideration. After that, however, the obstacles to becoming German will be significantly greater.Authorities have recorded a massive increase in the number of British people keen to take German citizenship since the 2016 Brexit referendum. Similarly, Germans who hope to gain British citizenship would not be forced to give up their nationality if they submit their applications before the end of the transitional phase. In most cases, German law does not allow dual citizenship for people from countries outside of the European Union.

UK army reservists put on standby as threat of no-deal Brexit looms - UK Defense Ministry has ordered army reservists to be placed on standby to quell potential unrest from a no-deal Brexit. PM Theresa May has been accused of trying to impose her deal with ‘doomsday’ forecasts in the past. Announcing the order in the House of Commons on Thursday, Defence Minister Mark Lancaster declared that army reservists would be ready to help minimise any disruption caused by a no-deal Brexit from February 10, 2019 to February 9, 2020. Lancaster told MPs that the main role of reservists’ will be to mitigate any negative effects a “‘no-deal’ scenario might have on the welfare, health and security of UK citizens,” as well as on the economic stability of the UK. “We would also expect Reserves to be drawn upon to support the implementation of contingency plans developed by Other Government Departments,” he added. Prime Minister May has been accused of stoking fears in the run-up to March 29, the deadline for the UK to leave the EU, by both her own party members and Brexit campaigners for quite some time. Earlier this month, former trade secretary and senior Tory Lord Peter Lilley accused the government of trying to “play up the supposed horrors” of leaving the EU in a bid to persuade hesitant MPs to vote for the deal she had agreed with the EU. It came after the Department of Transport devised a plan to send 150 trucks to test the Dover crossing in a Brexit rehearsal during a Monday rush hour. While May said that the contingency plans outlined by her cabinet were needed so the people “take reassurance and comfort,” Brexit campaigner and former UKIP deputy chair, Suzanne Evans, accused her of rehashing “project fear.”

Theresa May leaves EU leaders in ‘disbelief’ as she fails to make any new Brexit demands in cross-Channel calls despite her historic Commons defeat Theresa May made no change to her Brexit demands in cross-Channel phone calls with European Union leaders despite her own plan being heavily defeated by MPs earlier this week, it has been reported. The Prime Minister left EU diplomats in a state of 'disbelief' over her failure to shift her stance despite the historic defeat by a margin of 230 votes, a source said. Mrs May's requests continued to focus around either a legally binding time-limit for the Irish backstop; a right for Britain to unilaterally withdraw, or a commitment to a trade deal finalisation before 2021 to prevent the backstop from coming into force. She repeated her demands in talks with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Emmanuel Macron and Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, reported The Telegraph. 'It was the same old story - the same set of demands - all unchanged despite the defeat,' a source with knowledge of the calls said. The solutions to the border issue were rejected by the EU at the European Council meeting in December after leaders expressed doubts that they would be enough to get the deal over the line in Westminster. It comes as the Dutch and German governments publicly signalled their opposition to any new concessions for Britain, with Mr Rutte telling Mrs May the deal could not be 'tweaked'. 'I said: "I don't see how the current deal can be tweaked",' he told journalists after his phone call. 'She is really expecting Brexit to go ahead on March 29.'

Brexit: Liam Fox yet to seal no-deal trade agreements The UK has yet to finalise agreements to replace existing free trade deals the EU has with 40 big economies if there is a no-deal Brexit. International Trade Secretary Liam Fox said he "hoped" they would but it depended on whether other countries were "willing to put the work in". He said more deals were coming, after signing one with Australia. Concerns have been raised that the UK will leave the EU without a deal that would protect current arrangements. The UK is due to leave the EU on 29 March, under the Article 50 process and the UK's EU Withdrawal Act, with or without a deal - unless the UK chooses to revoke Article 50 and continues as a member of the EU. MPs defeated the withdrawal deal negotiated with the EU by a huge margin earlier this week, which provided for a "transition period" of 21 months, under which much of the UK's relationship with the EU would remain the same.

Amazon warns UK sellers to prepare for no-deal Brexit disruption to deliveries Amazon has warned UK businesses trading through its online marketplace to prepare for a no-deal Brexit or risk not being able to sell to customers in the EU. The company wrote to sellers in the UK to tell them that no deal “may temporarily prevent cross-border trade.” With Theresa May’s Brexit deal rejected by MPs this week and no sign of a consensus emerging in Westminster around how to proceed, the UK risks crashing out of the EU on 29 March. To ensure sellers are ready, Amazon said they should consider sending stock to its European fulfillment centres by 17 March. In an email, Amazon said businesses should also “be prepared that any units in a UK fulfillment centre might not be fulfilled cross-border to EU customers”.