A Fed pivot, born of volatility, missteps, and new economic reality (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve’s promise in January to be “patient” about further interest rate hikes, putting a three-year-old process of policy tightening on hold, calmed markets after weeks of turmoil that wiped out trillions of dollars of household wealth. But interviews with more than half a dozen policymakers and others close to the process suggest it also marked a more fundamental shift that could define Chairman Jerome Powell’s tenure as the point where the Fed first fully embraced a world of stubbornly weak inflation, perennially slower growth and permanently lower interest rates. Along with Powell’s public comments, Fed minutes, and other documents, the picture emerges of a central bank edging towards a period of potentially difficult change as it reviews how to do business in light of that new reality. Policymakers have debated for years how well traditional central banking fits a world transformed by the global financial crisis a decade ago. But it was a brief Oct. 3 remark by Powell that set off the chain of events which helped settle the matter. “We’re a long way from neutral now, probably,” Powell said at a Washington think-tank event, referring to a level of interest rates that neither cool or boost the economy. Though Powell was effectively summarizing what the Fed had just concluded at its Sept. 25-26 policy meeting, when it raised rates amid stronger than expected U.S. growth, his characterization touched a nerve. Investors dumped stocks and bonds, fearing the Fed aimed to drive rates higher than they felt the economy could withstand. It was the beginning of weeks of volatility that led the Fed to recalibrate its message, with more than one misstep along the way. In doing so, the central bank went beyond fine-tuning its language or adjusting to changing conditions. Interviews with officials as well as analysis of Fed minutes and policymakers’ public statements suggest the emergence of a long-elusive consensus that interest rates would likely never return to pre-crisis levels, and that once established relationships, such as inflation rising when unemployment fell, no longer worked.
Fed To End Balance Sheet Runoff At End Of Q3; Will Make Announcement In March Meeting- Goldman - While there was little new ground covered in the second day of Powell's second day of his semiannual Humphrey Hawkins Congressional testimony, the Fed Chair told lawmakers that he’ll soon announce a plan to stop shrinking the $4 trillion balance sheet which exploded from under $1 trillion before the financial crisis, to $4.5 trillion over the duration of QE1 through QE3, and which after shrinking by roughly half a trillion dollars, prompted a market quake and exasperated demands for the shrinkage to end. The next meeting of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee is March 19-20. While the Fed’s bond portfolio amounted to about 6% of GDP before the crisis, the new data point unveiled by Powell on Wednesday is that the balance sheet will likely settle around 16 or 17% of GDP. It is currently about 19.5%, so roughly 3 more GDP points of shrinkage and it will be over. Meanwhile, officials have agreed to continue operating with an “ample supply” of reserves, without spelling out what that meant for the size of Fed holdings. So while traders await more details on how and when the Fed's balance sheet runoff will end, Goldman commented after Powell's testimony that the bank now expects the FOMC to conclude its balance sheet runoff program at the end of the third quarter of 2019, and adding that according to today's testimony that announcement will come at the March meeting. At the end of Q3, the Fed's assets are likely to total $3.7-$3.8tn, with bank reserves at $1.3-$1.4tn. From that point on, we expect reserves to decrease gradually further via the growth of nonreserve liabilities (i.e., currency outstanding) until they reach $1.2tn in 2020 H2. While an earlier end to runoff will temporarily lead to a larger balance sheet relative to a later end, it should not have a large effect on the long-run size, which is largely pinned down by equilibrium reserves and currency outstanding. Specifically, at the end of Q3, the Fed's assets are likely to total $3.7-$3.8tn, with bank reserves at $1.3-$1.4tn, or well above the Fed's soft target of $1 trillion, a number which likely will never be reached due to concerns over more market tutbulence. From that point on, Goldman expect reserves to decrease gradually further via the growth of nonreserve liabilities (mostly in the form of currency outstanding) until they reach $1.2tn in 2020 H2.
Fed Chair Powell: Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress -- From Fed Chair Jerome Powell: Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress. Excerpts: While we view current economic conditions as healthy and the economic outlook as favorable, over the past few months we have seen some crosscurrents and conflicting signals. Financial markets became more volatile toward year-end, and financial conditions are now less supportive of growth than they were earlier last year. Growth has slowed in some major foreign economies, particularly China and Europe. And uncertainty is elevated around several unresolved government policy issues, including Brexit and ongoing trade negotiations. We will carefully monitor these issues as they evolve. And on the balance sheet: In light of the substantial progress we have made in reducing reserves, and after extensive deliberations, the Committee decided at our January meeting to continue over the longer run to implement policy with our current operating procedure. That is, we will continue to use our administered rates to control the policy rate, with an ample supply of reserves so that active management of reserves is not required. Having made this decision, the Committee can now evaluate the appropriate timing and approach for the end of balance sheet runoff. I would note that we are prepared to adjust any of the details for completing balance sheet normalization in light of economic and financial developments. In the longer run, the size of the balance sheet will be determined by the demand for Federal Reserve liabilities such as currency and bank reserves.
PCE Price Index: December Headline & Core - The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report for December was published this morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The latest Headline PCE price index was up 0.06% month-over-month (MoM) and is up 1.75% year-over-year (YoY). The latest Core PCE index (less Food and Energy) came in at 0.19% MoM and 1.94% YoY. Core PCE is now below the Fed's 2% target rate. The adjacent thumbnail gives us a close-up of the trend in YoY Core PCE since January 2012. The first string of red data points highlights the 12 consecutive months when Core PCE hovered in a narrow range around its interim low. The second string highlights the lower range from late 2014 through 2015. Core PCE shifted higher in 2016 with a decline in 2017 only to bounce back later in 2018.The first chart below shows the monthly year-over-year change in the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index since 2000. Also included is an overlay of the Core PCE (less Food and Energy) price index, which is Fed's preferred indicator for gauging inflation. The two percent benchmark is the Fed's conventional target for core inflation. However, the December 2012 FOMC meeting raised the inflation ceiling to 2.5% for the next year or two while their accommodative measures (low FFR and quantitative easing) are in place. More recent FOMC statements now refer only to the two percent target. The index data is shown to two decimal points to highlight the change more accurately. It may seem trivial to focus such detail on numbers that will be revised again next month (the three previous months are subject to revision and the annual revision reaches back three years). But core PCE is such a key measure of inflation for the Federal Reserve that precision seems warranted. For a long-term perspective, here are the same two metrics spanning five decades.
Chicago Fed "Index Points to Slower Economic Growth in January" - From the Chicago Fed: Index Points to Slower Economic Growth in January - Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –0.43 in January from +0.05 in December. One of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from December, and two of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in January. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to a neutral reading in January from +0.16 in December. This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967.
U.S. economy grew faster than expected in Q4 - In the fourth-quarter, U.S. gross domestic product grew at an annualized rate of 2.6%, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.Thursday’s report beat expectations, with consensus economists polled by Bloomberg looking for growth to slow to 2.2% during the final three months of the year. The domestic economy grew at a pace of 3.4% in the third quarter and 4.2% in the second quarter.Despite the softening in GDP in the fourth quarter, overall growth in 2018 was solid. Real GDP grew at a pace of 3.1% in 2018, measured from the fourth quarter of 2017 to the final quarter of 2018. This represented a stronger pace of annual growth than the 3% targeted by the Trump administration.“The deceleration in real GDP growth in the fourth quarter reflected decelerations in private inventory investment, PCE, and federal government spending and a downturn in state and local government spending,” the BEA wrote in a statement. “These movements were partly offset by an upturn in exports and an acceleration in nonresidential fixed investment. Imports increased less in the fourth quarter than in the third quarter.”Personal consumption grew by 2.8% in the fourth quarter, slower than the 3% expected and the 3.5% pace from the quarter prior. The PCE price index increased 1.5% in the fourth quarter, compared with an advance of 1.6% previously. The core PCE price index excluding food and energy prices rose 1.7%, versus an expected 1.6% uptick.Non-residential investment, a proxy for business spending, picked up with a 6.2% increase from 2.5% in the third quarter. This figure remained strong even as investing in structures declined 4.2%, or the largest drop since the third quarter of 2017. Fixed investment growth of 3.9% – versus 1.1% in the third quarter – was driven by spending in research and development. R&D spending totaled $425 billion in the fourth-quarter, representing a 9.9% year-over-year increase. “Private R&D spending now represents 2.3% of US GDP, an all-time record,” . “R&D spending is usually a good sign for future productivity growth. If secular stagnation is a thing, U.S. firms are fighting like hell to avoid it.” The BEA typically releases three prints on gross domestic product for each quarter. However, Thursday’s results take the place of the first two estimates for fourth-quarter GDP, as the first print was delayed due to the 35-day partial government shutdown.
BEA: Real GDP increased at 2.6% Annualized Rate in Q4 - From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter and Annual 2018 (Initial Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018, according to the "initial" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.4 percent. Due to the recent partial government shutdown, this initial report for the fourth quarter and annual GDP for 2018 replaces the release of the "advance" estimate originally scheduled for January 30th and the "second" estimate originally scheduled for February 28th. The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, exports, private inventory investment, and federal government spending. Those were partly offset by negative contributions from residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.The deceleration in real GDP growth in the fourth quarter reflected decelerations in private inventory investment, PCE, and federal government spending and a downturn in state and local government spending. These movements were partly offset by an upturn in exports and an acceleration in nonresidential fixed investment. Imports increased less in the fourth quarter than in the third quarter. The advance Q4 GDP report, with 2.6% annualized growth, was above expectations. This puts annual GDP growth at 2.9%. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased at 2.8% annualized rate in Q4, down from 3.5% in Q3. Residential investment (RI) decreased 3.5% in Q4. Equipment investment increased at a 6.7% annualized rate, and investment in non-residential structures decreased at a 4.2% pace.
Q4 GDP 'Initial' Estimate: Real GDP at 2.6%- The 'Initial' Estimate for Q4 GDP, to one decimal, came in at 2.6% (2.59% to two decimal places), a decrease from 3.4% for the Q3 Third Estimate. Investing.com had a consensus of 2.6%. Here is the slightly abbreviated opening text from the Bureau of Economic Analysis news release:Due to the recent partial government shutdown, this initial report for the fourth quarter and annual GDP for 2018 replaces the release of the "advance" estimate originally scheduled for January 30th and the "second" estimate originally scheduled for February 28th. See the Technical Note for details.The Bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter initial estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see “Source Data for the Initial Estimate” on page 3). Updated estimates for the fourth quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on March 28, 2019. [Full Release] Here is a look at Quarterly GDP since Q2 1947. Prior to 1947, GDP was an annual calculation. To be more precise, the chart shows is the annualized percentage change from the preceding quarter in Real (inflation-adjusted) Gross Domestic Product. We've also included recessions, which are determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Also illustrated are the 3.22% average (arithmetic mean) and the 10-year moving average, currently at 2.07%.Here is a log-scale chart of real GDP with an exponential regression, which helps us understand growth cycles since the 1947 inception of quarterly GDP. The latest number puts us 13.5% below trend.A particularly telling representation of slowing growth in the US economy is the year-over-year rate of change. The average rate at the start of recessions is 3.35%. Four of the eleven recessions over this timeframe have begun at a higher level of current real YoY GDP.In summary, the Q4 GDP 'Initial' Estimate of 2.6% was as expected and worse than the Q3 Third Estimate.
Q4 GDP: mixed signals for the future (UPDATED with graphs) - This morning we finally got the very delayed first look at Q4 GDP. As per my usual practice, I am less interested in what happened in the rear view mirror, which was an annualized gain of +2.6%, than what the number tells us about what lies ahead.The two forward-looking components of GDP are (1) private fixed residential investment, and (2) corporate profits. Both of these are long leading indicators, I.e., giving us an idea about where the overall economy will be a year or more out from here.In that regard, the news was mixed. Private residential fixed investment declined -0.9% q/q. This is in keeping with the downturn in housing construction that we have seen in the monthly data. Note that residential investment as a share of GDP declined in both nominal (blue) and real (red) terms: Meanwhile, corporate profits as is usual won’t be reported until the final revision in GDP one month from now, but proprietors’ income rose, was. While it does not always move in the same direction as corporate profits, and sometimes lags, it a good placeholder. Here the news was positive, as proprietors’ income rose +2.6% q/q: But the takeaway is, that in the rear view mirror, there was no recession in Q4. While one important leading sector of the economy, housing, continued to deteriorate, the producer side of the economy in the form of proprietors’ income, kept humming along. While enough long leading indicators of the economy did decline in 2018 to continue to justify being on “recession watch” for later in this year, and particularly Q4, there is no sign of deterioration on the producer side of the economy, so if a recession does develop, it will likely be centered on consumers and secondarily on manufacturing.
US Economy Grew The Most Since 2005 Last Year After Unexpectedly Strong Q4 GDP Print - Following a one month delay due to the government shutdown in January, moments ago the BEA reported GDP for the fourth quarter combining both its first and second estimates, and while consensus was expecting a sharp slowdown in the last quarter of the year, from 3.4% in Q3 to 2.2%, the US economy surprised to the upside in Q4, when it grew a stronger than expected 2.6% (2.590% to be precise). As the BEA explained, "this initial report for the fourth quarter and annual GDP for 2018 replaces the release of the 'advance' estimate originally scheduled for January 30th and the ‘second’ estimate originally scheduled for February 28th." On a year over year basis, 2018 GDP rose 3.1%, the highest print since 2005, and another chance for Trump to claim an economic win, although as Joseph Lavorgna notes, "at present, we’re still looking for sub-2% growth in the current quarter" and adds that these data also have no bearing on #Fed policy which is comfortably on perma-hold. Yet despite the headline beat, personal consumption disappointed, and after rising at a 3.5% rate in Q3, in Q4 it rose just 2.8%, missing expectations of 3.0%. Elsewhere, nonresidential fixed investment, or spending on equipment, structures and intellectual property jumped 6.2% in 4Q after rising 2.5% prior quarter. Don't expect this surge to continue, however, in light of the recent weak durable and core capex numbers. What were the components of Q4 GDP? Here is the breakdown to the bottom line:
- Personal consumption contributed 1.92% to the bottom line 2.59% number, down from 2.37% in Q3
- Fixed Investment rebounded from Q3's 0.21% to 0.69% in Q4.
- Growth in private inventories, which drove much of the Q3 GDP jump, hit a pothole, rising just 0.13% in Q4 after the prior quarter's 2.33% jump.
- Net Trade (exports less imports) was the biggest contributor to the rebound in Q4, and after this subtracted 2.0% in Q3, the trade impact in Q4 was only a -0.22% subtraction from GDP.
Finally, Government consumption added a modest 0.07% to the bottom line GDP, following a 0.44% contribution in Q3. As Renaissance Macro's Neil Dutta notes, "research & development spending is exploding, advancing 13.5% annualized in Q4, climbing 9.9% over the last year. Private R&D spending now represents 2.3% of US GDP, an all-time record. R&D spending is usually a good sign for future productivity growth. If secular stagnation is a thing, U.S. firms are fighting like hell to avoid it."
Q4 GDP: Investment - The first graph below shows the contribution to GDP from residential investment, equipment and software, and nonresidential structures (3 quarter trailing average). This is important to follow because residential investment tends to lead the economy, equipment and software is generally coincident, and nonresidential structure investment trails the economy. In the graph, red is residential, green is equipment and software, and blue is investment in non-residential structures. So the usual pattern - both into and out of recessions is - red, green, blue.The dashed gray line is the contribution from the change in private inventories. Residential investment (RI) decreased in Q4 (-3.5% annual rate in Q4). Equipment investment increased at a 6.7% annual rate, and investment in non-residential structures decreased at a 4.2% annual rate.On a 3 quarter trailing average basis, RI (red) is down slightly, equipment (green) is positive, and nonresidential structures (blue) is up slightly. Recently RI has been soft, but the decrease is fairly small.. The second graph shows residential investment as a percent of GDP.Residential Investment as a percent of GDP decreased in Q4, however RI has generally been increasing. RI as a percent of GDP is only just above the bottom of the previous recessions - and I expect RI to continue to increase further in this cycle. The increase is now primarily coming from single family investment and home remodeling. I'll break down Residential Investment into components after the GDP details are released. Note: Residential investment (RI) includes new single family structures, multifamily structures, home improvement, broker's commissions, and a few minor categories. The third graph shows non-residential investment in structures, equipment and "intellectual property products". Investment in equipment and non-residential structures - as a percent of GDP - were mostly unchanged.
Q4 Real GDP Per Capita: 1.80% Versus the 2.59% Headline Real GDP - The 'Initial' Estimate for Q4 GDP came in at 2.6% (2.59% to two decimals), down from 3.4% in Q2. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 1.80% to two decimal points.Here is a chart of real GDP per capita growth since 1960. For this analysis, we've chained in today's dollar for the inflation adjustment. The per-capita calculation is based on quarterly aggregates of mid-month population estimates by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which date from 1959 (hence our 1960 starting date for this chart, even though quarterly GDP has is available since 1947). The population data is available in the FRED series POPTHM. The logarithmic vertical axis ensures that the highlighted contractions have the same relative scale. The chart includes an exponential regression through the data using the Excel GROWTH function to give us a sense of the historical trend. The regression illustrates the fact that the trend since the Great Recession has a visibly lower slope than the long-term trend. In fact, the current GDP per-capita is 8.0% below the pre-recession trend. The real per-capita series gives us a better understanding of the depth and duration of GDP contractions. As we can see, since our 1960 starting point, the recession that began in December 2007 is associated with a deeper trough than previous contractions, which perhaps justifies its nickname as the Great Recession. The standard measure of GDP in the US is expressed as the compounded annual rate of change from one quarter to the next. The current real GDP is 2.59%. But with a per-capita adjustment, the data series is lower at 1.80%. The 10-year moving average illustrates that US economic growth has slowed dramatically since the last recession.
Q1 GDP Forecasts: Starting Low - From Merrill Lynch: Following 4Q GDP, we revise down 1Q 2019 growth to 1.0% from 1.5%. The revision largely reflects greater drag from inventories, with some adjustments to other components [Mar 1 estimate]From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report. The Q1 2019 nowcast is for 0.9% real GDP growth (Mar 1 estimate). And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow: The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in thefirst quarter of 2019 is 0.3 percent on March 1. [Mar 1 estimate] CR Note: These very early estimates suggest GDP around 1% in Q1.
GDP Crash- Goldman, Atlanta & NY Feds See Q1 GDP Tumble Below 1% -While the market was delighted on Thursday to see a delayed Q4 GDP print of 2.6%, which came in well above the expected 2.2% consensus number, we warned that "while Q4 was clearly a stronger than expected print, the real question is what happens in Q1, when most banks and nowcasts expect GDP to print below 1%, in some cases concerningly so." Moments ago we got confirmation of precisely this, when following the latest dismal economic data including a 2 year low in the manufacturing ISM, a miss in UMich Consumer Sentiment, and a near record plunge in personal spending, Goldman launched its Q1 GDP tracking estimate at a paltry +0.9%. This forecast, as Goldman's chief economist Hatzius said, "reflects an expected drag from inventories, sequentially slower consumption growth, a decline in residential investment, and a four-tenths drag from the government shutdown."It wasn't just Goldman, because at roughly the same time, the NY Fed's GDP Nowcast, which was launched to counter the Atlanta Fed's famous GDP tracker, crumbled from 1.22% last week (and 2.17% as recently as a month ago), to a stunning 0.88%, as a result of big declines in Personal Consumption, Housing Starts, Wholesale Inventories, and others. And speaking of the Atlanta Fed, it also just released its latest Q1 GDP nowcast, and it's a doozy, with the initial estimate coming just barely positive at only 0.3%, to wit:The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2019 is 0.3 percent on March 1. The initial estimate of fourth-quarter real GDP growth released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on February 28 was 2.6 percent, 0.8 percentage points above the final GDPNow model nowcast released the previous day.It appears that now assured Q1 earnings recession won't be in isolation, with the broader US economy now on the verge of contracting, if only for just one quarter. The question then becomes whether China's massive reflation attempts are successful, and lead to a rebound in US growth in the second quarter. If not, what was expected to become the longest US expansion in history in June 2019, will be prematurely terminated by a technical recession just as Donald Trump was set to make a new economic record.
Foreigner Boycott Of US Treasurys Continues- 7Y Auction Indirects Tumble To 3 Year Low --Following the earlier collapse in Indirect bidders in this week's 2Y auction, and the spike in the Direct takedown in yesterday's 5Y auction, today's sale of $32 billion in 7Y paper saw a continuation of both of these recent trends.First the good news: the auction stopped at a high yield of 2.538%, stopping through the When Issued 2.547% by a whopping 0.9bps, while the yield was the lowest since December 2017, and well below last month's 2.625% as one by one rates traders expect the Fed to start cutting rates soon.The internals were not nearly as strong, however, with the Bid to Cover rising to 2.60, up from 2.54% in January and above the 6 month average of 2.51. More importantly, there were continuing signs of a foreign bidder boycott, if not nearly as harsh as the one observed during the 2Y auction earlier this week, as Indirects took down only 55.2%, below the 58.3% in January, and the lowest Indirect print since the 47.1% in December 2015. Directs, meanwhile, surged just like in yesterday's 5Year auction, rising to 28.4%, the second highest on record, and just below the 32.6% Directs in March 2014. This means that dealers were left with just 16.4%, the lowest since the 11.7% in January 2018. Overall, another concerning auction, one where the fading in foreign demand continued to be offset by Direct bidders, although the question is what happens if and when Direct buyers join Indirects in boycotting US auctions, leaving only Dealers, who already have near record high holdings of US paper, to fund Uncle Sam. When that happens, look for a quick and painful market crash as the Fed will be desperate for cover to start another round of deficit monetization, also known as QE.
On Friday The Debt Ceiling Returns, And The Treasury Runs Out Of Cash 6 Months Later - While president Trump may have postponed one of the two major events scheduled to hit this Friday, March 1, the second one is still set to proceed as scheduled: that's when the US debt limit suspension expires and the US debt ceiling will again return (incidentally the current debt ceiling was suspended when total debt was $1.5 trillion lower!), prompting Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to draw upon extraordinary measures to keep the government within its statutory borrowing capacity for some time beyond March 1. Which means that rates traders are wearily looking at the T-Bill curve to determine when analysts expect the Treasury to exhaust its extraordinary measures, at which point another debt ceiling crisis will become a very hot topic. And as the following chart of the infamous "kink" in bill yields shows, where the curve dislocation approximate the timing of the D-Date, the market believes that the US will run out of extenuating measures some time in the last week of August. Making an accurate D-Date forecast problematic, this year the changes to the Treasury's tax code has created additional uncertainty around IRS tax receipts. That said, with at least six months to go until politicians once again repeat the debt ceiling charade, there has already been soft demand for six-month bill auctions in recent weeks. There are other ways this Friday's debt ceiling return will impact markets, most notably with a sharp decline in the Treasury's cash balance which currently stands at $331 billion, and is set to plunge as low as $200 billion over the next few days, as by Friday the cash balance should be at or below the level it was at when the current suspension went into effect in February 2018. And since the commercial banking system will be on the receiving end of that liquidity, this development should lead to sharp drop in Libor/OIS... ... while also work potentially serving to depress the USD over the next 60-90 trading days (due to the excess USD liquidity which will be released by the Treasury.) But a bigger question is how will negotiations between Trump and the democrats play out heading into the August D-Date. Should trump fold in the current negotiations with China just to see his precious stock market gain another several hundred points, his core constituency - some of whom are already fuming over his border wall concession, when Trump decided to fund government and keep it open - will demand that Trump hold tough on this last point of leverage with the Democrat-controlled House. Should Trump fold here too, he will burn through much of his remaining political capital. On the other hand, the alternative is a US technical default.
Who's Afraid Of Budget Deficits- I Am - David Henderson via The Hoover Institution -- In a provocative article in Foreign Affairs titled “Who’s Afraid of Budget Deficits?” Jason Furman and Lawrence H. Summers argue that we should not worry much about the federal government’s large and growing budget deficits. While they admit that politicians and policymakers “shouldn’t ignore fiscal constraints entirely,” they say that they “should focus on urgent social problems, not deficits.” And throughout the piece, they assume, for every single problem they address, that the solution is more spending. It’s not surprising that they don’t worry much about deficits. Furman and Summers aren’t just rank and file economists. Furman, an economics professor at Harvard University’s Kennedy School, was the chairman of former President Barack Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers. Summers, who is president emeritus of Harvard, was the Treasury Secretary under former President Clinton and head of the National Economic Council under former President Obama. I know Summers from when we were both economists with President Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers and I know Furman from his work. These are not, to put it mildly, dumb guys. And if you dismiss them as such, you make a big mistake. It’s important to look at their argument.I’ve studied their argument, and I find it unpersuasive in two respects:
- (1) their main case, which is that we shouldn’t worry much about deficits and
- (2) their subsidiary point, which is that we need at least the amount of government spending we have now and should be ready and willing to increase government spending.
Why do Furman and Summers think we shouldn’t worry about the federal government deficit? Their main reason is that the interest rate the federal government pays on the debt is so low. They point out that the current real interest rate on ten-year government bonds is 0.8 percent. (The real interest rate is the stated interest rate earned on bonds minus the inflation rate.) As a result, even though the federal debt is a much larger percent of GDP than it was in recent decades, the federal government “pays around the same proportion of GDP in interest on its debt, adjusted for inflation, as it has on average since World War II.”
Warren Buffett Denounces Deficit Hawkery in His Latest Shareholder Letter --Yves Smith - Warren Buffett admitted he was wrong about deficits. Wish he had figured this out before 2009, when the Obama Administration was afraid of launching a big enough stimulus package. From his annual shareholders’ letter: Sadly aside from Axios, I don’t seen this point getting the attention it deserves. But maybe too many heads would explode were that to happen. But his becoming an official agnostic is a big step in the right direction. A series of disappointing data releases in recent weeks, including flagging consumer confidence and meager private sector job growth, is leading more and more experts to worry that the recession in the US and abroad is coming back. At the same time, many policymakers, particularly in the Eurozone, are slashing government budgets, which they contend will lower debt levels, and thereby restore investor confidence, reduce interest rates, and promote growth. Yet many miss the fact that fiscal deficits are a nearly inevitable result of actions by corporations and households. Failure to understand these dynamics and address root causes is sure to make a bad situation worse. What happens when corporations on balance are saving, and households in aggregate try to save too? Families and individuals typically tighten their belts and bolster their bank accounts in bad times; the tendency is even more acute now, since many are trying to pay down borrowings, which is a form of saving,If households and corporations are both saving, it must be balanced by the other two sectors of the economy, the government sector and the import/expert secto. In other words, the foreign and government sectors must spend more cash than they are taking in. In lay terms, that means running a trade surplus and having the government incur budget deficits.Therefore, when both domestic households and the corporate sector are saving at the same time, then you need to have a VERY large trade surplus, a very large government deficit, or some combination of the two. There is no other way to square this circle – anyone who tries to tell you otherwise does not understand double entry book keeping, which the West has used for at least the last five centuries with some success. And what if a government embarks on an austerity program in the face of private sector efforts to deleverage? Income growth will stall, and if the austerity program is large or sustained long enough, falling household wages and business profits can result.
America faces many emergencies. The ‘border crisis’ isn’t one of them --Forget the manufactured border crisis, let’s talk about the real emergencies facing the nation today. Right now in America, there are 140 million people living in poverty or just one paycheck or emergency away from poverty. Thirty-seven million people live without healthcare and 62 million are paid less than a living wage. Fourteen million families cannot afford water and millions are living with poisoned water and without sanitation services. We suffer under an impoverished democracy that has less voting rights today than it did after the 1965 Voting Rights Act was passed.In other words, there is a national emergency of systemic racism, poverty, ecological devastation and the war economy. And it didn’t start with President Trump, though he is certainly making things worse. The truth is, neither party has done what we need to address this real emergency, despite the fact that our deepest religious and constitutional values compel us to care for the vulnerable, welcome the immigrant, pay workers what they deserve, and organize society around the needs of the poor.But instead of tackling real and urgent emergencies, the president and his enablers are focused on building an immoral border wall. Senator Lindsey Graham says children need a wall more than they need a middle school. It’s this same kind of racism that explains how he and Senator Mitch McConnell can support Trump’s monument to white supremacy. If the president and our elected officials were truly worried about the southern border, their focus would be on the real emergency that’s staring them in the face. Along the border in Texas, hundreds of thousands are being denied health care because their home state refused to expand Medicaid. Workers make $7.25 an hour and struggle to support their families. Unaccompanied minors who cross the border seeking asylum are sent to federal detention centers until caseworkers can find them a home. If they turn 18 before that, they graduate to adult detention facilities.
House votes to overturn Trump's emergency declaration - The House passed legislation Tuesday to block President Trump’s emergency declaration at the southern border, marking an unprecedented congressional challenge to a president’s authority to invoke emergency powers. The resolution passed easily through the Democratic-controlled chamber, 245-182, with Democrats voting unanimously to send it to the Senate. The GOP-led upper chamber is expected to hold a vote on the measure in the coming weeks. Republican leaders, who had clambered to limit defections in their ranks heading into Tuesday's vote, were largely successful: 13 Republicans joined with Democrats to admonish Trump’s move — well short of the number Democrats would need to overturn the president’s promised veto. Sponsored by Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-Texas), the one-page resolution would terminate Trump’s emergency declaration, thereby preventing the administration from extending the U.S.-Mexico border wall using funds previously allocated for other programs. The vote marks the first time Congress has taken formal action to block a presidential emergency declaration since the power was created in the National Emergencies Act of 1976. Democrats hinged their opposition on the basic principles of constitutional law, arguing that Trump’s unilateral move marks a clear-cut violation of the separation of powers and the unique authority of Congress to dictate where federal dollars are spent. “If it were truly an emergency we'd all be there with the president,” Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said. “Without strong Borders, we don’t have a Country,” Trump tweeted leading up to the vote.
Pence meets with Senate GOP for 'robust' discussion on Trump declaration - Senate Republicans had a “robust” discussion behind closed doors Tuesday with Vice President Pence and Justice Department officials on the legality of President Trump’s national emergency declaration, according to a senator who participated. “We talked about the statutory basis ... for an emergency, we talked about the constitutional basis, we talked about the issue of Madisonian separation of powers, we talked about the factual basis – there was a very robust discussion,” Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) told reporters following the nearly two-hour lunch. "It reminded me a lot of federal courts or constitutional law classes in law school," added Kennedy, a member of the Judiciary Committee. Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) declined to characterize the discussion as contentious but acknowledged differing points of view over the president's move to sidestep Congress in an effort to reallocate funds for a barrier at the U.S.-Mexico border. "I think some people showed there were different voices and different views whether the president should have called a national emergency, but I didn't know how many that was – I didn't count them,” said Shelby, the chairman of the Appropriations Committee. Kennedy wouldn’t predict how many Republicans would end up voting for a resolution to block Trump's emergency declaration. If all Democrats vote for the resolution as expected, they would need just four Republicans to back the measure for it to pass. At least three GOP senators – Tom Tillis (N.C.), Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) and Susan Collins (Maine) – plan to vote with Democrats to block the president’s declaration once the House passes the privileged resolution as expected on Tuesday evening.
Dems slam Trump plan to move military construction funds for border wall - House Democrats on Wednesday hammered Pentagon officials over President Trump's plan to move Defense Department military construction (MILCON) dollars to build his proposed southern border wall after declaring a national emergency.Assistant Secretary of Defense for Sustainment Robert McMahon offered few new details on Trump’s plans to take $3.6 billion in MILCON funds for his project, effectively sidestepping Congress.The lack of more information angered Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.), who heads the Appropriations Committee's sub-panel on military construction.“I’m not sure what kind of chumps you think my colleagues and I are,” she told McMahon during a particularly testy exchange.While McMahon assured lawmakers that no military construction projects already authorized by Congress will be canceled, “some current military construction projects may be deferred,” and the president’s fiscal year 2020 budget request “will include a request for funds to replenish funding for these projects.” He also offered that to protect military readiness, the Pentagon will look to delay projects that “pose no or minimal operational readiness risks if deferred,” those scheduled to be awarded in the last half of the fiscal year, and recapitalization projects on existing facilities that could be put off for several months.
How Politics Trump Intel in the US-Russia Nuke Treaty Pullout - American Conservative. Scott Ritter - The United States has a track record of asking nations to prove a negative when it comes to compliance with arms control agreements, and then holding them to account when they fail to do so. The deficit of integrity over U.S. claims against Iraq regarding weapons of mass destruction and Iran and its nuclear program speaks volumes about how corrupt America’s policymaking apparatus has become. Now the United States is making the same mistake again by pulling out of the INF Treaty, which it claims Russia violated. “A high degree of confidence is required before the United States will publicly charge another party with violation of an international agreement.” Acting Deputy Director of the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (ACDA) Thomas Graham, Jr. delivered those remarks during testimony before the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence in 1994. […] Sometime in 2007 or 2008, intelligence analysts began observing activity indicating that the Russians were developing a new ground-launched ballistic missile. The specific intelligence tip-offs remain classified, but based on what little has been reported, it appeared to include aerial imagery of the Kapustin Yar missile test facility, telemetry collected from various test launches of missiles, and all-source monitoring of Russian weapons acquisition processes. These are the established intelligence tools of the trade—and, as the Iraq and Iran examples have shown, they are susceptible to misinterpretation. According to the current director of national intelligence, Dan Coats, the intelligence community “assesses Russia has flight-tested, produced, and deployed cruise missiles with a range capability prohibited by the Treaty.” Coats named the system in question as the 9M729. According to Coats, “Russia conducted the flight test program in a way that appeared purposefully designed to disguise the true nature of their testing activity as well as the capability of the 9M729 missile.” Coats makes careful use of estimative language, in particular the terms “assesses” and “appeared,” which clearly indicate that the American allegations are not absolute, but rather a matter of analytical supposition. This conclusion is furthered by Coats’ concluding statement: “Russia probably assumed parallel development—tested from the same site—and deployment of other cruise missiles that are not prohibited by the INF Treaty would provide sufficient cover for its INF violation.”
Pepe Escobar: Putin Rattles Sabre As Nuclear Pact Collapses - Russian President warns West that deploying missile launchers in Europe could ignite ‘tit for tat’ response... President Putin’s state of the nation address to the Federal Assembly in Moscow this week was an extraordinary affair. While heavily focused on domestic social and economic development, Putin noted, predictably, the US decision to pull out of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty and clearly outlined the red lines in regard to possible consequences of the move.It would be naïve to believe that there would not be a serious counterpunch to the possibility of the US deploying launchers “suitable for using Tomahawk missiles” in Poland and Romania, only a 12-minute flight away from Russian territory.Putin cut to the chase:“This is a very serious threat to us. In this case, we will be forced – I want to emphasize this – forced to take tit-for-tat steps.”Later that night, many hours after his address, Putin detailed what was construed in the US, once again, as a threat.“Is there some hard ideological confrontation now similar to what was [going on] during the Cold War? There is none. We surely have mutual complaints, conflicting approaches to some issues, but that is no reason to escalate things to a stand-off on the level of the Caribbean crisis of the early 1960s”.This was a direct reference to the Cuban missile crisis in 1962 when President Kennedy confronted USSR’s Nikita Khrushchev over missiles deployed off the US mainland.The Russian Defense Ministry, meanwhile, has discreetly assured that conference calls with the Pentagon are proceeding as scheduled, every week, and that this bilateral dialogue is “working”.In parallel, tests of state-of-the-art Russian weaponry such as the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile and the hypersonic Khinzal also proceed, alongside mass production of the hypersonic Avangard. The first regiment of the Russian Strategic Missile Forces will get the Avangard before the end of this year.And then there’s the Tsircon, a hypersonic missile capable of reaching US command centers in a mere five minutes – leaving the whole range of NATO military assets exposed.What Putin meant in his address about Russia targeting “centers for decision-making” was fundamentally related to NATO, not the American mainland.
After Putin's warning, Russian TV lists nuclear targets in U.S. (Reuters) - Russian state television has listed U.S. military facilities that Moscow would target in the event of a nuclear strike, and said that a hypersonic missile Russia is developing would be able to hit them in less than five minutes. The targets included the Pentagon and the presidential retreat in Camp David, Maryland. The report, unusual even by the sometimes bellicose standards of Russian state TV, was broadcast on Sunday evening, days after President Vladimir Putin said Moscow was militarily ready for a “Cuban Missile”-style crisis if the United States wanted one. With tensions rising over Russian fears that the United States might deploy intermediate-range nuclear missiles in Europe as a Cold War-era arms-control treaty unravels, Putin has said Russia would be forced to respond by placing hypersonic nuclear missiles on submarines near U.S. waters. The United States says it has no immediate plans to deploy such missiles in Europe and has dismissed Putin’s warnings as disingenuous propaganda. It does not currently have ground-based intermediate-range nuclear missiles that it could place in Europe. However, its decision to quit the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty over an alleged Russian violation, something Moscow denies, has freed it to start developing and deploying such missiles. Putin has said Russia does not want a new arms race, but has also dialled up his military rhetoric.
Trump And Kim Jong Un Impersonators Arrested Ahead Of Vietnam Nuclear Summit --Two men known for impersonating Donald Trump and Kim Jong-Un were arrested by Vietnamese authorities ahead of next week's nuclear summit between the two world leaders in the capital city of Hanoi, reports the Independent. Kim lookalike Howard X claimed 15 officers had questioned him and Trump lookalike Russell White for almost three hours, warning them to drop their imitation act. The pair have been making public appearances in Hanoi over the past few days, talking to media and taking pictures with amused onlookers. –Independent The Hong-Kong born Australian Kim impersonator, whose real name is Lee Howard Ho Wun, explained what happened in a lengthy Facebook post, detailing their arrest shortly after shooting a segment for a local TV station. Authorities arrived at the station and detained the two men for a "mandatory" interrogation - essentially telling them to stop doing their act.
US officials no longer demanding full accounting of North Korea nukes or missiles: report -U.S. officials negotiating North Korea’s denuclearization are no longer demanding a full accounting of the nation’s nuclear and ballistic missile arsenals, according to an exclusive report from NBC News. The reversal suggests U.S. officials believe fully denuclearizing North Korea is increasingly out of their grasp, a reality the intelligence community has suggested in recent weeks is increasingly likely. North Korea’s refusal to provide a full disclosure of its weapons tanked nuclear negotiations a decade ago.The news comes as President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un meet in Hanoi for their second summit since June. Trump has expressed optimism that a deal can be reached and touted North Korea’s economic potential should harsh sanctions resulting from its nuclear program be lifted.U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Stephen Biegun suggested last month that officials would no longer demand a full list of North Korea’s arsenal up front.“Before the process of denuclearization can be final, we must also have a complete understanding of the full extent of the North Korean weapons of mass destruction missile programs. We will get that at some point through a comprehensive declaration,” he said during a speech at Stanford University.Even if Kim were to agree to a full accounting, it is unlikely he’d approve of the rigorous verification process that would follow.Researchers have uncovered as many as 20 ballistic missile sites in recent months, according to NBC News, suggesting North Korea’s program is more developed than previously known. U.S. negotiators are hoping that North Korea will accept their demands this week to shutter its Yongbyon nuclear reactor, which many consider to be the nuclear program’s crown jewel. However, Kim and other officials are demanding sanctions relief before any action is taken, a move the White House says will only take place following full denuclearization.
Kim says he wouldn't be at summit with Trump if he were not ready to denuclearize - North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said he would not be at a summit with President Trump if he were not willing to denuclearize the Korean peninsula. Asked by a reporter if he was ready to denuclearize, Kim, speaking through an interpreter, said, “If I'm not willing to do that, I won't be here right now.” Pressed on whether he was ready to take concrete steps to denuclearization, Kim said, “that is what we are discussing right now.” Kim's comments came during an expanded bilateral meeting with Trump on the second day of their summit in Hanoi, Vietnam. Trump and Kim started the day with a one-on-one meeting, which began with Trump stating that he is in no rush to reach a denuclearization deal with Kim. Kim accepting questions from U.S. reporters marks a historic moment, as it is believed to be the first time he has done so with Western reporters.
The Trump-Kim summit in Vietnam has been cut short. No agreement was reached - The White House said Thursday that the nuclear summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was cut short and no agreement was reached.The meeting in Hanoi, Vietnam ended significantly earlier than had originally been scheduled, and a CNBC producer on the ground in Hanoi confirmed that she saw Trump's motorcade leaving the summit site around 1:30 p.m. local time (1:30 a.m. ET)."The two leaders discussed various ways to advance denuclearization and economic driven concepts," White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders said. "No agreement was reached at this time, but their respective teams look forward to meeting in the future."A previously planned joint signing ceremony appeared to have been cancelled.Sanders did not tell reporters why the schedule had changed and she declined to say whether there would be a signing ceremony.A solo press conference for Trump that was originally scheduled for 3:50 p.m. local time (3:50 a.m. ET) had been moved to 2 p.m., according to NBC News.South Korean stocks fell on the news that the summit's schedule had been cut short.
'Sometimes you just have to walk': Trump and Kim fail to reach nuke deal at second summit - “Sometimes you just have to walk.” That was how U.S. President Donald Trump explained the stunning breakdown in nuclear talks between him and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Hanoi on Thursday. Trump told a hastily organized news conference in the Vietnamese capital that while the talks had faltered, “we had a really, I think, productive time.” He said the talks at the second summit, some eight months since the two leaders’ landmark first meeting in Singapore, had been derailed over the U.S. side’s refusal to completely ease crushing U.N. and unilateral sanctions. “It was about the sanctions,” Trump said. “Basically they wanted the sanctions lifted in their entirety, and we couldn’t do that.” The revelation came after the two sides earlier cut short their summit, including a planned lunch and “joint signing ceremony.” Trump attempted to put an optimistic shine on the rift, noting that the two sides had parted ways amicably and revealing that Kim had vowed “no testing of rockets or missiles or anything having to do with nuclear.” The North’s last nuclear test, in September 2017, was also its sixth and largest. Its last ballistic missile test was in November that year, when it tested a long-range missile that experts say is capable of striking much, if not all, of the continental United States.
“A Major Failure”: North Korea Summit Cut Short as Trump Refuses to Lift Sanctions — Peace leaders and international observers expressed disappointment on Thursday that President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un cut short their second summit after they reached an impasse over the easing of economic sanctions.The talks concluded abruptly without Trump and Kim formally ending the decades-long war or finalizing a nuclear deal.“This is a huge missed opportunity and a disappointment to Koreans waiting 67 years to see a decisive end to the Korean War,” said Christine Ahn, executive director of Women Cross DMZ, who traveled to Hanoi, Vietnam for the meeting. “Declaring an end to the Korean War will be an important step to demonstrate their commitment to transforming the relationship from one of war to peace.”Quick #TrumpKimSummit thoughts: Not enough time or staff to work out deal. Shows the limits of “summitry.” Expect references to Reykjavik. Left and right relieved: those who feared giving too much, those who fear Trump victory. This is a major failure. https://t.co/yoMPDZPbum— Joe Cirincione (@Cirincione) February 28, 2019Trump confirmed to reporters that the disagreement over sanctions led to the breakdown. “It was about the sanctions,” he said. “Basically they wanted the sanctions lifted in their entirety, but we couldn’t do that.”As Trump put it, “We had some options, but at this time we decided not to do any of the options.” As the Washington Post reported: Kim said he was prepared in principle to denuclearize, and Trump said an agreement was “ready to sign.” But Trump said the main impediment to a deal was Kim’s requirement that the United States lift all economic sanctions on North Korea in exchange for the closure of only one North Korean nuclear facility, which still would have left Pyongyang with a large arsenal of missiles and warheads… For Trump, the surprising turn of events amounted to a diplomatic failure. The president flew 20 hours to Vietnam with hopes of producing demonstrable progress toward North Korea’s denuclearization, building upon his first summit meeting with Kim last summer in Singapore. Reports from South Korea have suggested that John Bolton, Trump’s hawkish national security advisor who has been skeptical about negotiations with Kim, might have played a role in the breakdown by adding demands that North Korea also report chemical and biological weapons.
Trump Sticks To Sanctions – U.S., North Korea Summit Fails – Updated - The second summit between President Donald Trump and Chairman Kim Jong-un of North Korea was held in Hanoi, Vietnam yesterday and today. It failed. The meetings on the last day were cut short. Nothing was agreed upon and signed. No common statement was issued. Trump held a press conference and gave his side of the talks (transcript). The issue seems to have been the sequencing of abolishing sanctions by the U.S. side versus the destruction of the Yongbyon nuclear reactor complex on the North Korean side. The U.S. demanded the destruction of Yongbyon and of other complexes before any change in the sanction regime. North Korea insisted on following the sequencing that was agreed upon during the first summit. The joint statement by the two leaders signed in June 2018 defined four clearly sequenced steps:
- The United States and the DPRK commit to establish new US-DPRK relations in accordance with the desire of the peoples of the two countries for peace and prosperity.
- The United States and DPRK will join their efforts to build a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.
- Reaffirming the April 27, 2018 Panmunjom Declaration, the DPRK commits to work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula
- The United States and the DPRK commit to recovering POW/MIA remains, including the immediate repatriation of those already identified.
Eight month later new relations in form of the opening of embassies or a lifting of sanctions were not established. No peace treaty was signed. North Korea destroyed nuclear testing tunnels and a missile test stand. Some POW/MIA remains have been repatriated. But the U.S. side has taken no steps that could be seen as fulfilling its commitments.
Trump lost big at Kim summit, but it could've been worse — President Donald Trump cut his losses here Thursday.After traveling halfway around the world for a face-to-face meeting with one of the world's most notorious despots — with hopes of persuading the dictator to give up his nuclear weapons cache — the president who considers himself the world's ultimate deal-maker pushed away from the negotiating table with nothing more in hand than he had arrived with."Sometimes you have to walk," Trump said at an unusually tame post-summit press conference. "I think that was one of these times." It would be easy to simply stack the summit atop a gathering pile of political, policy and personal humiliations for Trump in recent months. That treacherous hill includes a historic loss of House seats by his party in November's midterm elections; a 35-day government shutdown that he said he was "proud" to own; Congress' rejection of his proposal to fund a border wall between the U.S. and Mexico; the indictments and convictions of several of his closest associates by special counsel Robert Mueller; and even the allegations leveled Wednesday by his former fixer, Michael Cohen, that he ran his business and presidential campaign as a "cheat" and a "con man." Without a doubt, Trump put himself in a hole by agreeing to come meet Kim in the North Korean's backyard for a second nuclear summit without so much as a promise that Pyongyang would begin winding down its weapons program. But what Trump sacrificed in prestige, time and energy pales in comparison to what he — and the U.S. — might have lost had he made the concessions to Kim necessary to strike a deal.
Opinion No, the North Korea summit was not a loss for Trump – WaPo - Trump was supposed to “need” a deal to counter the publicity from his former personal lawyer Michael Cohen’s testimony before the House Oversight Committee on Wednesday. Trump was supposed to be too besotted with his personal relationship with Kim to refuse something that the clever dictator would present. Anonymous aides were said to be worried about what would happen if the two men were alone in a room together.Well, they were alone in a room, Kim did offer a terrible deal, and Trump calmly walked away. Indeed, by cutting the summit short and walking away without even signing a face-saving concluding statement, Trump made it clear that he was more interested in substance than show.Make no mistake, the deal Kim supposedly offered would have been terrible from a U.S. perspective. Dismantling North Korea’s nuclear facility at Yongbyon in exchange for ending all sanctions on the nation‚ as Trump portrayed their offer, would have given the North Koreans what they desired most for only a tiny portion of what we wanted. Even the North’s characterization of the offer, that they only wanted removal of some sanctions, would have been insufficient for the United States.North Korea’s leaders would have kept all their intercontinental missiles, all of the weapons-grade plutonium already produced and all the nuclear devices they might have stored, and they would have kept their entire nuclear inventory secret. Indeed, offering to dismantle their only known source for plutonium is itself a hint that they have developed alternative sources, making Yongbyon expendable. No serious leader would even have considered such an offer.
Kashmir, Korea, Venezuela, Iran: hot, cold, hybrid war - Turning and turning in a widening gyre, the geopolitics of the young 21st century resembles a psychedelic mandala conceived by Yama, the Lord of Death. Kim Jong Un, chairman of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, fresh from a 70-hour train journey, meets in prosperous, communist Hanoi with fellow Nobel Peace Prize contender Donald Trump under the benevolent gaze of Uncle Ho. This very sentence, if announced not long ago, would have elicited transcontinental howls of derision. Chairman Kim, owner of a small nuclear arsenal, is deemed worthy of dialogue by the hyperpower while the nuclear-deprived leadership in Iran is not, even as the hyperpower ditched a multilateral, UN-approved, working nuclear deal. In parallel, the hottest border in Asia reveals itself not to be the DMZ between the Koreas, but once again the Line of Control between nuclear powers India and Pakistan in Kashmir. Although Islamabad and Delhi might, in theory, escalate to pointing nuclear missiles towards each other, the DPRK won’t point a nuclear-tipped missile at Guam and Tehran points to nothing at all, as it does not hold any nuclear missiles. In a lighter, Looney Tunes vein, exit regime change in Pyongyang, while regime change in Iran stays, and enter regime change in Venezuela. Iran may still be placed in the Axis of Evil, but the new motto is the troika of tyranny (Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua) as the government in Caracas plays ‘Beep Beep’ to the hyperpower’s Wily Coyote. An array of dodgy US neocons and shady “foundations” keep the flame of regime change in Iran alive, even fabricating a Tehran-al-Qaeda axis, while in Venezuela a stealth scenario advances. An astonishing briefing at the Ministry of Foreign Relations in Moscow this past Friday revealed that “US special forces and tech units will be delivered closer to Venezuela’s borders. We do have information that the US and its NATO partners are organizing for a mass delivery of weapons for the opposition in Venezuela, which will come from an Eastern European country.” Facts are implacable. NATO, after nearly two decades, was miserably defeated in Afghanistan. The NATO-Gulf Cooperation Council war by proxy in Syria failed. The winners are Damascus, Tehran and Moscow. The conflict in Donbass is frozen. So, a remixed Monroe doctrine is back, even as a humanitarian ploy – reminiscent of the “humanitarian imperialism” that led to the destruction of Libya – may have failed, for now.
Jared Kushner's Multibillion-Dollar Plot To Give Saudis Nukes --The House of Representatives’ Committee on Oversight and Reform has issued a report on a plot to make billions of dollars by selling Saudi Arabia sensitive American nuclear technology that could allow the Kingdom to develop nuclear weapons. The scheme required breaking US law, which forbids technology transfers that might allow nuclear proliferation. The plot was pushed by a “company” formed for this express purpose called IP3 International, which doesn’t seem to have actually existed except as a sort of shell for lobbying the Trump administration. IP3 was, according to the committee, helmed by “General Keith Alexander, General Jack Keane, Mr. Bud McFarlane, and Rear Admiral Michael Hewitt, as well as the chief executives of six companies— Exelon Corporation, Toshiba America Energy Systems, Bechtel Corporation, Centrus Energy Corporation, GE Energy Infra structure, and Siemens USA—“ All “signed a letter to Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The letter presented ‘the Iron Bridge Program as a 21st Century Marshall Plan for the Middle East.’” Bud McFarlane? That is Ronald Reagan’s National Security Advisor who was up to his elbows selling arms to Khomeini in the Iran-Contra scandal, and thought up the idea of sending Ayatollah Khomeini a cake shaped like a key and a Bible (along with a few T.O.W. anti-tank emplacements)! Like Elliot Abrams, he was pardoned by George H. W. Bush, who seems to have created a factory for 21st century further scandals. The point man for the plot was General Mike Flynn, who called for Hillary Clinton to be locked up at the Republican National Conference in late summer of 2016 and glommed on to Trump, becoming his first National Security Adviser. Flynn had visited Saudi Arabia in connection with the IP3 plot to transfer nuclear technology to that country that could help Riyadh make a bomb if the royal family felt they needed to do so to remain safe (e.g. if Iran went in that direction or if relations with nuclear-armed Israel tanked). The cover story was that the US corporate front would just make 6 nuclear reactors for electricity generation.
Sell nuclear plants to the Saudis- Are you kidding? - The revelations of a House Oversight Committee report on the activities of IP3, a U.S. business group, to sell U.S. nuclear technology to Saudi Arabia and other Middle East countries, make clear that Congress has to step in to block U.S. reactor exports to Riyadh. Current law gives the Executive Branch too much power in negotiating civilian nuclear cooperative agreements with other countries.In the Saudi case, the proposed nuclear exports are all clothed in terms of providing energy to power the Kingdom’s modernization. But the first thing to understand is that the Crown Prince’s push to get nuclear technology is also about countering Iran, and that means having the wherewithal to make nuclear weapons. He has made that crystal clear in a famous CBS interview in which he said if Iran gets nuclear weapons, Saudi Arabia will follow “as soon as possible.” The Saudis already have the rockets, and we shouldn’t be surprised if they jump the gun on the nuclear warheads. There is no internal check on the Crown Prince, who we have learned is capable of violation of international norms. The country is an absolute monarchy. In the latest Freedom House report that rates countries on the basis of their degree of freedom, Saudi Arabia was down with North Korea in the “worst of the worst” category, scoring 7 out of 100. By comparison, Iran scored 18 and Iraq 32. The purveyors of nuclear technology, however, are not fussy about such things and are drawn like flies to putative Saudi billions. In the arguments over the conditions in any U.S.-Saudi nuclear cooperation agreement — such an understanding is required by law before any U.S. export can take place — the nuclear industry has opposed anything beyond minimal restrictions. At no time has the industry supported efforts to get Saudi Arabia to forswear enriching uranium or separating plutonium, the two gateways to a bomb. The Saudis, they told us, are proud people and can’t be expected to accept such humiliation. We have recently learned just how proud they are when the Crown Prince’s spokesman informed us that any sanctions of the Kingdom’s rulers is a “red line.
Saudi Arabia appoints first female ambassador to the U.S -- Saudi Arabia on Saturday named Princess Reema bint Bandar as its new ambassador to the U.S., a move that comes as relations between the two countries continue to be tested over the killing of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi.Reema's appointment — the first time the Kingdom has named a woman as its top diplomat in Washington — comes amid tensions between the U.S. and its strategic ally in the Middle East over whether Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman ordered Khashoggi's killing in October last year. The Trump administration has sought to move on from the controversy, but multiple Senate Republicans are pressing the president and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo over what they deem to be a lackluster response to a legal requirement that the administration file a report to determine who was responsible for the murder.Prince Khalid bin Salman, the previous ambassador to the U.S. and younger brother of the crown prince, was named as deputy minister of defense. According to a Washington Post report, he abruptly left the U.S. in October last year as the kingdom began to be pressed over its varying explanations for Khashoggi's disappearance, and did not return until December. Princess Reema was raised in Washington, graduated from George Washington University and is the daughter of a former Saudi ambassador to the U.S. She has worked in the kingdom to expand opportunities for women in a nation that has historically downgraded the role of women in society.
Women at State Dept. fear incentive program contributes to gender pay gap - Women at the State Department are concerned that they are getting paid less than men in equivalent roles, primarily due to an incentives program that critics say contributes to the gender wage gap. The program, meant to incentivize people from high-paying industries to join public service, provides newcomers with a hefty increase in their starting salary that follows them throughout their career. Gender pay experts say that, while the policy has merit, it’s more likely to benefit men who, they say, end up getting paid more to do the same jobs as their female counterparts. “There’s mounting evidence and legal precedent that this policy can exacerbate wage gaps,” said Jenna Ben-Yehuda, founder of the Women's Foreign Policy Network and a former State Department employee. The foreign service, in particular, has drawn concerns from employees who fear its clear internal career path and demands for regular relocation can exacerbate wage differences over time. In the foreign service, where many spend large swaths of their careers, it’s easy for employees to compare their careers with and see differences among their peers, some say. “You’re not just taking a pay hit, you’re taking a status hit,” said one female foreign service officer, who asked not to be named.
Trump may be about to call Europe’s bluff on Iran. Europe isn’t bluffing. Last Friday, the editorial board of Bloomberg Opinion condemned Europe’s new INSTEX arrangement, a so-called Special Purpose Vehicle set up to allow European companies to engage in humanitarian trade with Iran, despite the renewal of U.S. sanctions against the Islamic Republic. This arrangement — which was set up by Germany, France and the United Kingdom — has made the United States very unhappy. Vice President Pence has described it as “an effort to break American sanctions against Iran’s murderous regime” that would “strengthen Iran, weaken the E.U., and create still more distance between Europe and the United States." Bloomberg Opinion argues that Europe is bluffing, and that “U.S. officials would be right to insist that the SPV be shut down — if necessary, by threatening sanctions against any person, bank or company associated with its creation.” It is possible that this editorial reflects the thinking of some Trump officials. Bloomberg Opinion seems to believe that sharp action by the United States would be relatively costless, since Europe is bluffing, and indeed ought to fold before the United States issues sanctions. This claim is almost certainly incorrect. It is true that European officials were initially uncertain about confronting the United States, since they feared harsh retaliation. However, the way in which Europe has structured the INSTEX arrangement makes it extremely improbable that it is a bluff. America’s three most powerful European allies have collectively signed on to the new arrangement. They have furthermore appointed senior diplomats to the board of INSTEX — Simon McDonald, Britain’s permanent undersecretary of state for foreign affairs; Miguel Berger, head of economics at the German Foreign Ministry; and Maurice Gourdault-Montagne, secretary general of the French Ministry of Europe and Foreign Affairs. This isn’t a bluff: it is what the game theorist and nuclear strategist Thomas Schelling calls a tripwire. When one state is worried that another state will not take its credibility seriously, it may create a situation that narrows its own options in the future. Britain, Germany and France have appointed senior diplomats to make their resolve clear. This means that if the United States took the advice of Bloomberg Opinion, it would effectively be declaring diplomatic war on its three most important European allies, sanctioning senior European officials for acting in their official capacity to maintain an international agreement that the United States itself negotiated and Iran has not violated. Europe has deliberately structured INSTEX to make it difficult to back down, meaning that there would be widespread fallout from such a declaration of war.
Zarif’s Resignation and Our Bankrupt Iran Policy - Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, tendered his resignation earlier today: Iran’s top diplomat, an architect of the landmark nuclear deal, resigned on Monday, hobbling the relatively moderate government of President Hassan Rouhani and its chances of keeping the pact alive.Foreign Minister Javad Zarif’s unexpected resignation, announced on his Instagram account late at night in Iran, signals a victory for Iran’s hard-liners, who favor confrontation with the West, as Washington ratchets up pressure on the country after pulling out of the deal. Zarif has been under pressure from hard-line critics inside Iran for years, and that pressure has increased significantly since the U.S. withdrawal last year from the nuclear deal that he negotiated. His resignation seems to be an acknowledgment that hard-liners have gained enough ground at home that he is no longer able to do his job effectively. It appears that the proximate cause for Zarif’s decision was his exclusion from a high-profile meeting with the visiting Syrian President Assad: It is possible that Zarif’s resignation won’t be accepted, but the fact that he felt the need to offer it shows that his position has been steadily eroding over the last year. Hard-liners are in the ascendant inside Iran, and that is due in no small part to the Trump administration’s destructive and bankrupt Iran policy. Iran hawks may like to pretend that Iran doesn’t have domestic politics and that there are no differences between relative moderates and hard-liners, but this latest development proves them wrong once again. Their preferred policies have consistently empowered the political forces in Iran that are most hostile to the U.S. and engagement with Western governments, and today they have just delivered Iran’s hard-liners one of their biggest wins in years.
Why Invading Iran Would Be One Of The Worst Blunders In American History - Iraq. Libya. Syria. Afghanistan - hell, even Vietnam. Rather than bringing peace, prosperity and democracy like the government propaganda had promised, American military interventions in these countries - interventions that had promised to oust repressive regimes and protect human rights - largely had the opposite impact. They cost thousands of non-American lives, destabilized the country - if not the broader region - and often brought about the rise of regimes that were even more repressive than those that preceded them. In some cases, they led to outright anarchy. And now, some worry that the Trump Administration is planning another one of America's famous regime-toppling interventions. Not in Venezuela, but in Iran. Author Steven Metz, who recently published "Iraq and the Evolution of American Strategy," wrote in an opinion column that ran in World Politics Review this week that the possibility that the Trump regime might order a military strike against Iran - either to destroy its nuclear generators or something more ambitious to try and bring down the regime - shouldn't be overlook. Particularly with infamously anti-Iran hawks like John Bolton serving in the senior ranks of the administration. While it's true that Iran has been an enemy and antagonist of the US virtually since the founding of the Islamic Republic, and that the regime in Tehran is repressive, theocratic and guilty of most - if not all - of the transgressions identified by President Trump, and a pre-emptive intervention in Iran "would constitute one of the greatest fiascos in American foreign policy, destroying US leadership around the world and probably igniting another wave of violence in the Middle East that provokes more extremism." As the Pentagon draws up plans for just such an encounter, it's worth keeping all of this in mind, even as the tensions between the US and Iran have largely faded from the headlines now that several months have passed since the Iran deal was scrapped. But with the US waivers on Iranian oil sanctions set to expire in May unless the US chooses to extend them (which, to be fair, is a possibility, given Trump's stated preference for lower oil prices), another wave of belligerent rhetoric could be on the way. Read more from Metz below:
Kushner Meets MBS to Discuss Peace Plan Between Palestine and Israel — US President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, who works as a senior White House adviser, met with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Tuesday, an administration news release said.The White House issued a statement a day after the meeting took place and said that US Middle East envoy Jason Greenblatt and US special representative for Iran Brian Hook also met with the crown prince, known as MBS, along with Kushner.The statement did not provide many details, only alluding to the US peace plan for Israel and the occupied Palestinian territories.“Building on previous conversations, they discussed increasing cooperation between the United States and Saudi Arabia, and the Trump administration’s efforts to facilitate peace between the Israelis and Palestinians,” the statement read.“Additionally, they discussed ways to improve the condition of the entire region through economic investment,” it added. Specifics of the proposed US peace plan for the two entities remain unknown at this point and the statement did not divulge any plans to help obtain agreement from Palestinian leaders, who have repeatedly said they want nothing to do with the US plan.
How the UAE is Poaching Our Intelligence Operatives, Legally -- If a foreign country is recruiting our spies, and these recruits ultimately spy on Americans, can they be considered traitors? Unfortunately that isn’t a rhetorical question. Recent reporting has revealed that a number of former NSA hackers were hired by the United Arab Emirates to conduct surveillance and cyber attacks on their so-called enemies, domestic and foreign. While the United States is considered an ally and the cyber operations were largely blessed by the Washington, Americans were inevitably caught up in the dragnet. On January 30, Reuters published two stories (here and here) reporting that in 2014, the United Arab Emirates had put together a clandestine team of former U.S. intelligence operatives called “Project Raven.” According to Lori Stroud, a former agent of Project Raven who went on the record with her story, the group used methods gleaned from a decade or more in the American intel community (as well as their state of the art cyber tools) to help the UAE gather intelligence and engage in cyber warfare against other governments—including top government officials—militants, and human rights activists critical of the UAE and considered “national security threats” to the monarchy. Stroud said she had joined “Project Raven” only two weeks after leaving the NSA in 2014. U.S. national security lawyers told Reuters that the laws governing what American intelligence contractors can do overseas are “murky.” One thing that wasn’t ambiguous, however, was that the agreement between the State Department (with the NSA’s nod) and the UAE contractor that made Project Raven possible forbade the outfit from targeting U.S. citizens and companies. Yet the increasingly broad data surveillance operations were scooping up Americans anyway. Stroud said they did their best to flag and delete those targets, but as their work became increasingly dominated by their UAE handlers, there was no way to tell whether American interests were being completely protected.Why the U.S. government would allow our agents to do this in the first place is difficult to understand.The idea that American taxpayers pay for their best and brightest to be trained to work as assets for the CIA, NSA, FBI, or any other U.S. intelligence agency, and then be scooped up within weeks of leaving to serve as tools for a foreign government is absurd. But apparently it is legal.
Warning ‘Every Option Is On the Table,’ Pompeo Stokes Fears of Military Force in Venezuela - Unrest and fears of U.S. military intervention in Venezuela continued on Sunday as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo reiterated the Trump administration's warning that "every option is on the table" and that it would galvanize a "global coalition to put force behind the voice" of those calling for the ouster of President Nicolás Maduro.Pompeo made the comments on "Fox News Sunday" hours after he tweeted that the "U.S. will take action against those who oppose the peaceful restoration of democracy in #Venezuela," an apparent reference to those who do not back a regime change to opposition leader and self-declared acting president Juan Guaido.Guaido, as Bloomberg reported Sunday, said that he'll meet Monday with officials from countries in the region backing his push to topple Maduro and announce the next steps afterward. While he didn't specify what those steps could be, he did say in a series of tweets that "all options" are being considered.Shortly thereafter, Senator Marco Rubio [R-Fla.], who's helped spearhead the U.S. position on Venezuela, posted a tweet showing Panamanian dictator Manuel Noriega under arrest in the U.S. in what was a not-so-subtle threat to take Maduro out militarily. Rubio continued the not-so-subtle threats on Sunday afternoon with side by side photos of Muammar Gaddafi, with one showing the ousted Libyan leader bloodied as he was dragged through the streets. And Colombia's right-wing President Iván Duque, the Associated Press reports,said that acts of "barbarism" committed by Maduro's troops in blocking the delivery of [U.S.] humanitarian aid required a forceful international response—something that could come as early as Monday, when U.S. Vice President Mike Pence travels to the Colombian capital for an emergency summit on Venezuela with foreign ministers from more than a dozen mostly conservative Latin American and Caribbean states. The United Nations and Red Cross have refused involvement in that supposed aid as it's mired in political objectives. Moreover, adds journalist Mark Cook, "The absurdity of $20 million of US food and medicine aid to a country of 30 million, when U.S. authorities have stolen $30 billion from Venezuela in oil revenue, and take $30 million every day, needs no comment." Nor, say some foreign policy observers, does the fact that the U.S.-backed war in Yemen has pushed millions to the brink of famine.
'Nicolás Maduro Must Go,' Pence Says After Violence Over Venezuela Aid Shipments - Vice President Pence traveled to Bogotá, Colombia, on Monday and urged regional leaders to support Juan Guaidó, the self-proclaimed interim president of Venezuela, vowing that the U.S. will stand with the opposition leader "until your libertad is restored."Pence also announced U.S. sanctions against several border-state governors aligned with embattled Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro who are said to be involved in blocking shipments of humanitarian aid from reaching Venezuelans.Military forces have prevented most of the food and medicine from crossing the country's borders with Brazil and Colombia. Clashes with protesters and volunteers trying to unload truckloads of aid resulted in the deaths of least four people this weekend. Hundreds more were wounded.Trucks carrying items were torched, amid tear gas fired by the military and attacks waged by paramilitary groups, as NPR has reported. "Just days ago, as the world watched, the tyrant in Caracas danced as his henchmen burned truckloads of food and medicine, and murdered civilians," Pence said in remarks to members of the Lima Group, a coalition of nations formed to address the Venezuela turmoil."Saturday was a tragic day for the families of those who lost their lives and we mourn for those who mourn," Pence said. "It was also a tragic day for the suffering people of Venezuela, but it was also just one more day in Venezuela's long and inevitable journey from tyranny to freedom." Maduro's government, however, views the aid shipments as a pretext for foreign invasion. Guaidó and other opposition leaders had hoped the aid would loosen Maduro's grip on the country. Under the socialist regime, the once prospering country has suffered massive inflation and well as shortages of food and medicine. Millions of desperate Venezuelans have fled the country. If Maduro remains in charge of Venezuela, Pence said he expects it will result in two million more refugees.
Maduro's Days Numbered Pompeo Warns; Guaido To Formally Request US Liberation - It appears this weekend's provocations and border showdown over US aid entering Venezuela were just the beginning. US State Secretary Mike Pompeo discussed the prospect of military action against Caracas on Fox News Sunday, saying the Maduro regime's days are "numbered" and that "every option" is on the table toward making that happen. Pompeo said the US is “going to do the things that need to be done” and this will not stop until “makes sure” that “there is a brighter future for the people of Venezuela," which includes continued support for self-proclaimed interim president, Juan Guaido. Denouncing Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro as a “sick tyrant,” Pompeo said in his Sunday morning remarks:We’re very hopeful in the days and weeks and months ahead the Maduro regime will understand that the Venezuelan people have made its days numbered. The threat comes just Guaido announced he would attend a summit of the Lima Group – a meeting of 12 American states which have recognized him as "legitimate" leader of Venezuela. Crucially, Guaido is to meet with US Vice President Mike Pence at the summit where he will “propose formally to the international community that we should keep open all options for the liberation of our homeland, which is fighting and will continue to fight,” according to a tweeted statement Saturday evening. Guaido has since Friday evening been addressing the opposition from neighboring Colombia, where he personally attempted to lead failed attempt at seeing an aid caravan across the border into Venezuela.
Venezuela FM Claims "CIA Expert" Pompeo Torched Aid Trucks In False Flag Attack - Venezuela's Foreign Minister Jorge Arreaza suggested that the United States was behind the burning of a truck carrying US Aid which made international headlines, blaming Secretary of State and former CIA boss Mike Pompeo for staging a false flag. Pompeo took to twitter to denounce "Maduro's refusal to let humanitarian assistance reache #Venezuela," asking "What kind of a sick tyrant stops food from getting to hungry people?""The CIA expert in false flag operations, Pompeo, thinks he can fool the world with a truck set ablaze by his own agents in Colombia," said Arreaza over Twitter on Saturday..@SecPompeo, especialista de la CIA en operaciones de bandera falsa, cree que engaña al mundo con un camión quemado en Colombia por sus propios agentes. Aquí está la verdad: pic.twitter.com/ISFXmFMSAt— Jorge Arreaza M (@jaarreaza) February 24, 2019 “@SecPompeo and their assassins are desperate to fabricate a pretext for war," Arreaza later tweeted, adding "If you want to find those who burnt the truck with fake humanitarian aid, look among your own employees.".@SecPompeo y sus sicarios están desesperados por fabricar un pretexto para la guerra. Hoy la operación le salió mal. Si quiere ubicar a quienes quemaron el camión con falsa ayuda humanitaria, que lo busque entre sus asalariados. #TrumpHandsOffVenezuela https://t.co/qS73BEyHDz — Jorge Arreaza M (@jaarreaza) February 24, 2019 Venezuelan television host Jorge Gestoso echoed Arreaza's sentiment, tweeting that the "burned trucks with humanitarian aid is another attempt to "provoke the invasion" using a "fake news" false flag. Derecha de Venezuela incendió camiones con ayuda humanitaria en otro intento de provocar la invasion y difunde una 'fake news" -una noticia falsa- como si no fueran ellos los autores - la oposicion venezolana - del ataque : ver fotos https://t.co/UWGJIcxED3 vía @Pagina12 — Jorge Gestoso (@JorgeGestoso) February 24, 2019
Psychopathic US Senator Openly Calls For Maduro To Suffer Gaddafi’s Fate --Caitlin Johnstone -- Senator Rubio has been Capitol Hill’s single most virulent advocate of US interventionism in Venezuela, and has been tweeting about it constantly. Since Washington’s bogus “humanitarian aid” delivery sparked violence on the borders of Columbia and Brazil, as it was intended to, Rubio has cranked his interventionist cheerleading up to eleven. The fact that Maduro would not allow a government that is openly staging a coup in Venezuela to hand a large unchecked delivery over to opposition factions within that very nation has been used to sell a narrative that Venezuela’s Evil Dictator is deliberately cutting off aid to a needy populace, which was of course planned. This narrative has been helped along by highly suspicious photo-friendly fires, and has been injected into mainstream consciousness with hysterical urgency by the likes of Rubio, Bill and Hillary Clinton, Dianne Feinstein, Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris and the entire Trump administration. And it is completely false. Firstly, Maduro is not refusing humanitarian aid for his people. Only an idiot would believe that the latest Official Bad Guy (who coincidentally happens to be sitting on top of the largest oil reserves on earth) is intentionally starving and depriving his people, and anyone who makes such claims should have to explain how they make that work in their minds. What’s the idea behind that, exactly? Is he starving them all and cutting them off from medical supplies because he hates them? Is he trying to kill everyone in Venezuela so that he can have the entire country to himself? Does he have some strange sexual fetish for the slow starvation of an entire citizenry? How specifically does this work? In reality, Maduro has been accepting aid from everywhere except from the government that is openly staging a coup in his country in gross violation of its national sovereignty. Just last week Caracas accepted 933 tons of food and medical supplies from China, Cuba, India and Turkey, and Russia has shipped in 300 tons of aid on its own.
Sen. Rubio’s Tweet of Bloody Gadhafi Seen as ‘Warning’ to Venezuelan President - Most everything Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) does these days is related to his self-appointed position as a top leader of the US push for regime change in Venezuela. His decision to Tweet a before and after picture of former dictator Moammar Gadhafi is being seen in that context. Gadhafi was violently overthrown in 2011 in a US-backed push for regime change. He was ultimately caught by US-backed rebels and publicly killed. Rubio’s Tweet is seen as a “warning” to Venezuela’s President Maduro, who the US is in the process of trying to overthrow. At best it would be a threat to see Maduro killed Gadhafi-style, or potentially an end-game goal for the Rubio-led push, with US-imposed regime change almost certain to include a violent death for a perceived enemy. Though Rubio says he previously wanted the US “solution” to Venezuela to be non-military, he now believes that ousting Maduro is important enough that a “very strong argument” can be made to send the military in.
Venezuela: Guaidó wants ‘all options’ open as he meets Pence - Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó is set to meet US Vice-President Mike Pence on Monday, after asking other countries to consider “all options” to remove President Nicolás Maduro from power. Guaidó’s comments came after a day of violence, as opposition supporters spent hours trying to break a government blockade and carry food and medical supplies into Venezuela. At least four people were killed and more than 300 hundred injured. “The events of today oblige me to take a decision,” Guaidó said on Twitter, “to formally propose to the international community that we should keep all options open to achieve the liberation of our homeland.” Pence will announce “concrete steps” and “clear actions” at a summit of the regional Lima Group in Bogota on Monday, a senior US official told reporters on Sunday. “What happened yesterday is not going to deter us from getting humanitarian aid into Venezuela,” the official said. Another top official previously said the US was prepared to bring in fresh sanctions on Venezuela if attempts to deliver aid were met with violence. Pence will have a one-on-one meeting in Bogota with Guaidó, who the US has recognised as the interim president of Venezuela. The 35-year-old, who transformed Venezuelan politics and united a fractured and ineffective opposition when he declared himself the country’s legitimate leader in January, has repeatedly said his focus is on a peaceful transition and new elections.
Pence threatens war in Venezuela at Colombia summit: “There is no turning back” --US Vice President Mike Pence delivered a bellicose speech before representatives of 14 Latin American countries at a meeting of the Lima Group in Bogotá, Colombia, yesterday. The remarks were timed to coincide with the US-orchestrated provocations at the Venezuelan border over the weekend, resulting in clashes that left several people dead.Pence rehashed phrases plagiarized from speeches given by George W. Bush in the run-up to the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, combining them with denunciations of socialism.“There is no turning back,” Pence said. “All options are on the table.”“A new day is coming in Latin America,” he continued. “In Venezuela and across the Western hemisphere, socialism is dying and liberty, prosperity and democracy are being reborn before our eyes.” Pence issued an ultimatum to the Venezuelan military, threatening that if it did not overthrow Maduro, “You will find no safe harbor, no easy exit, no way out. You will lose everything.”Pence announced that the US would place added sanctions on officials in the Venezuelan government and called on the right-wing governments of Latin America to “transfer ownership of Venezuelan assets in your country” to the government of US puppet Juan Guaidó. In other words, the US is conducting cross-hemispheric highway robbery.
Burning Aid: An Interventionist Deception on Colombia-Venezuela Bridge? — The Trump administration’s coup against Venezuela culminated on February 23 with US-backed opposition attempting to ram several trucks loaded with boxes of USAID “humanitarian aid” across the previously unused Francisco de Paula Santander bridge connecting Colombia to Venezuela.The trucks failed to reach the other side — but that was never really the point of the stunt. As Father Sergio Munoz, a right-wing Venezuelan activist posted on the Colombian side of the border, explained to journalist Dan Cohen, the humanitarian “aid” was a purely symbolic provocation aimed at discrediting Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in international eyes and generating waves of destabilizing violence. By the end of the day, the trucks lined up on the Francisca de Paula Santander bridge were flanked by gangs of guarimberos. These were the nihilistic masked youth who form the shock troops of the right-wing opposition, and who placed Caracas under siege with violent barricade protests, known as guarimbas, at several points between 2014 and 2017. A mob of guarimberos burned to death Orlando Figuera, a 22-year old black Venezuelan accused of supporting Maduro, on an eastern Caracas street in broad daylight, back in June 2017.On the Santander bridge this February 23, the guarimberos rained down a hail of rocks and molotov cocktails on Venezuelan national guardsmen holding the line against the USAID trucks. Suddenly, the trucks caught fire and the masked youth began unloading boxes of aid before they burned. Within minutes, pro-opposition media reported that the Venezuelan national guard forces were responsible for the fires. A reporter for the private anti-government channel NTN24 claimed without evidence that the Venezuelan security forces had caused the fires with tear gas: The claim was absurd on its face. I have personally witnessed tear gas canisters hit every kind of vehicle imaginable in the occupied Palestinian West Bank, and I have never seen a fire like the one that erupted on the Santander bridge.
Venezuela- US Resolution Fails at UNSC as Guaido Vows to Re-enter Country – A draft resolution tabled by the United States was rejected at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) after being vetoed by China and Russia. The US resolution called for the start of a process leading to “free, fair and credible elections,” as well as for “unhindered access and delivery of assistance” in Venezuela. The resolution had 9 votes in favor, 3 abstentions and 3 votes against, with China and Russia exercising their veto powers. Russia’s UN envoy, Vasily Nebenzya, criticized the tabling of a resolution that Washington knew had no chance of being approved. “We have serious concerns that today’s session may be used as a step forward in preparing a real intervention, not a humanitarian one,” he warned. China and South Africa were the other countries to vote against the UN initiative. Chinese representative Ma Zhaoxu stressed that Beijing opposes any interference in internal Venezuelan affairs, while his South African counterpart, Jerry Matthews Matjila, condemned efforts to “violate the UN Charter.” A Russian resolution, calling for a “peaceful settlement” of the political crisis through dialogue and for humanitarian assistance to be coordinated with the Venezuelan government, was likewise rejected, with 7 votes against, 4 in favor and 4 abstentions. Venezuela’s permanent representative to the UN, Samuel Moncada, also had the chance to address the UNSC, slamming what he termed Washington’s violent escalation against the Caribbean nation. “We demand respect for our sovereignty and territorial integrity, and non-intervention in our internal affairs,” he said. Thursday’s vote came on the heels of another UNSC debate centered on Venezuela on Tuesday. The diplomatic battles follow a tense standoff on the Venezuelan-Colombian border on Saturday, February 23. Self-proclaimed “Interim President” Juan Guaido had pledged that humanitarian aid would make its way into Venezuela on that day “no matter what.” According to initial information supplied by the US Agency for International Development (USAID), the aid shipment contained food and hygiene products meant for 5,000 people for 10 days. Reports have since emerged that the aid contained no medicine.
Venezuela Coverage Takes Us Back to Golden Age of Lying About Latin America - I was sitting in my apartment in Caracas, Venezuela, reading the online edition of Time magazine (5/19/16), which carried a report that there was not even something as basic as aspirin to be found anywhere in Venezuela: “Basic medicines like aspirin are nowhere to be found.” I walked out of the apartment to the nearest pharmacy, four blocks away, where I found plenty of aspirin, as well as acetaminophen (generic Tylenol) and ibuprofen (generic Advil), in a well-stocked pharmacy with a knowledgeable professional staff that would be the envy of any US drugstore. A few days after the Time story, CNBC (6/22/16) carried a claim that there was no acetaminophen to be found anywhere, either: “Basic things like Tylenol aren’t even available.” That must have taken the Pfizer Corporation by surprise, since it was their Venezuelan subsidiary, Pfizer Venezuela SA, which produced the acetaminophen I purchased. When the Youth Orchestra of Venezuela gave a concert in New York in early 2016, before I moved to Caracas, I went there thinking, “Gee, I hope that the members of the orchestra are all well-dressed and well-fed.” Yes, of course they were all well-dressed and well-fed! Hard as it may be for followers of the US media to believe, Venezuela is a country where people play sports, go to work, go to classes, go to the beach, go to restaurants and attend concerts. They publish and read newspapers of all political stripes, from right to center-right, to center, to center-left, to left. They produce and watch programs on television, on TV channels that are also of all political stripes. CNN was ridiculed recently (Redacted Tonight, 2/1/19) when it carried a report on Venezuela, “in the socialist utopia that now leaves virtually every stomach empty,” followed immediately with a cut to a demonstration by the right-wing opposition, where everybody appeared to be quite well-fed.
Venezuela, Hezbollah and Iran: What You’re Not Being Told — Speaking on 6 February to Fox Business about the ongoing crisis in Venezuela, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had a grave warning about outside interference in the South American nation: “People don’t recognize that Hezbollah has active cells. The Iranians are impacting the people of Venezuela and throughout South America.” The next day, the US Southern Command’s Admiral Craig S Faller informed the Senate Armed Services Committee that Iran “has deepened its anti-US influence campaign in Spanish-language media, and its proxy Lebanese Hezbollah maintains facilitation networks throughout the region that cache weapons and raise funds, often via drug trafficking and money laundering”. As usual, concerned media took the ball and ran with it. Sensationalist drivel In one exemplary piece of sensationalist drivel for Radio Farda – the Persian-language component of the US government-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty network (with a website also in English) – Penny L Watson babbled about the threat posed to the US on account of Hezbollah and Iran’s alleged conversion of Venezuela into a base of operations. As of 2010, she asserted, there were “as many as six terrorist training camps” scattered around the Venezuelan capital of Caracas and Margarita Island off the country’s coast, regularly hyped as a terror hotbed. (I myself incidentally visited the island around that time and didn’t manage to track down a single “terrorist”, despite being in the company of a Lebanese-Palestinian friend who had fought alongside Hezbollah against the Israeli occupation of Lebanon.) A New York Post article by Benny Avni, who surmises that “Iran’s clerics” must be “trembl[ing] as they watch their old Caracas allies teeter”, brings up another pet factoid regularly regurgitated by right-wing fearmongers: the possibility of air travel between Venezuela and Iran. Other intriguing neo-conservative arguments have over the years included the notion that former Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez was peeved about the US-facilitated coup against Honduran President Manuel Zelaya in part because “the Iranians had opened a ‘maintenance’ facility in Honduras for… ‘tractors’ produced in Venezuela, in reality, a drug transshipment warehouse”. In the 2009 Oliver Stone documentary South of the Border, the late Chavez himself appropriately highlights the absurdity of right-wing propaganda by joking, in reference to a Venezuelan corn processing facility: “This is where we build the Iranian atomic bomb.”
Military Intervention Would Be a Disaster for Venezuela -- The Venezuelan opposition’s aid gamble over the weekend failed: Guaidó’s comments suggested the opposition’s limitations after a plan they had hoped would cause deep fissures in Maduro’s military structure instead produced only modest cracks. In the face of Maduro’s military blockade of aid, they largely failed to bring in the assistance they had hoped to deliver to Venezuelans in the direst need. The opposition’s strongest American backers, including Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), sharply criticized Maduro and suggested repercussions. “After discussions tonight with several regional leaders it is now clear that the grave crimes committed today by the Maduro regime have opened the door to various potential multilateral actions not on the table just 24 hours ago,” Rubio tweeted late Saturday. Tying the delivery of aid to the opposition’s effort to overthrow Maduro was a serious mistake on Guaido’s part, and one for which the people of Venezuela will pay the price. Rubio has been angling and hoping for a confrontation that could be exploited as a pretext for U.S. intervention, and he seizing on the violence at the Venezuelan border as an excuse to begin threatening Maduro more explicitly with U.S. intervention. Today, Rubio followed up his earlier hints at military intervention with a blunt, sick invocation of the results of the 2011 intervention in Libya: Rubio’s ugly tweet met with an overwhelmingly negative response, but it confirms what most critics have assumed about the administration’s Venezuela policy from the start. A thinly-veiled policy of regime change has been leading up to calls for military action, and that is what we are going to start hearing now. Rubio is a reflexive hawkish intervetionist, and he has been the driving force behind the administration’s Venezuela policy. He has extraordinary influence over what that policy will be, and now he is making a clear threat that Maduro is going to meet the same grisly fate as Gaddafi. The parallels between this policy and the Libyan intervention were already worrisome, and now they are genuinely alarming. If Rubio wanted to give Maduro an additional incentive to hang on and fight to the bitter end, recalling Gaddafi’s violent death at the hands of his domestic enemies should do the trick.
Donald Trump to delay extra tariffs on Chinese imports - US President Donald Trump said he will delay the application of additional tariffs on Chinese imports, citing “substantial progress” in talks in Washington with a team led by China’s Vice-Premier Liu He. “I am pleased to report that the US has made substantial progress in our trade talks with China on important structural issues including intellectual property protection, technology transfer, agriculture, services, currency, and many other issues,” Trump said in a tweet. US President Donald Trump said he will delay the application of additional tariffs on Chinese imports, citing “substantial progress” in talks in Washington with a team led by China’s Vice-Premier Liu He. “I am pleased to report that the US has made substantial progress in our trade talks with China on important structural issues including intellectual property protection, technology transfer, agriculture, services, currency, and many other issues,” Trump said in a tweet. A hike in tariffs on US$200 billion of Chinese imports, originally expected to take effect at 12:01am on March 2, would be delayed, said Trump, who suggested that more negotiations would precede a face-to-face between the two leaders. “Assuming both sides make additional progress, we will be planning a Summit for President Xi and myself, at Mar-a-Lago, to conclude an agreement”, he continued. “A very good weekend for US & China!”
Trump delays tariff hike on Chinese goods, citing trade talk progress (Reuters) - President Donald Trump said on Sunday he would delay an increase in U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods thanks to “productive” trade talks and that he and Chinese President Xi Jinping would meet to seal a deal if progress continued. The announcement was the clearest sign yet that China and the United States are closing in on a deal to end a months-long trade war that has slowed global growth and disrupted markets. Trump had planned to raise tariffs to 25 percent from 10 percent on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports into the United States if an agreement between the world’s two largest economies were not reached by Friday. After a week of talks that extended into the weekend, Trump said those tariffs would not go up for now. In a tweet, he said progress had been made in divisive areas including intellectual property protection, technology transfers, agriculture, services and currency. As a result, he said: “I will be delaying the U.S. increase in tariffs now scheduled for March 1. Assuming both sides make additional progress, we will be planning a Summit for President Xi and myself, at Mar-a-Lago, to conclude an agreement. A very good weekend for U.S. & China!” The president did not set a new deadline for the talks to conclude, but he told U.S. state governors gathered at the White House that there could be “very big news over the next week or two” if all went well in the negotiations. The White House did not provide specific details on the kind of progress that had been made.
The US government just made clear it's going after more types of Chinese tech than we thought - The brewing technology battle between the U.S. and China isn't just about 5G telecom equipment Chinese companies want to bring to the U.S. It's already starting to bleed into other tech categories, as shown in a new letter posted Monday from 11 senators and top officials from the departments of Energy and Homeland Security that called for a ban of Huawei-made solar technology. The letter sets the U.S. up to not only block smartphones and telecom equipment from Chinese companies such as Huawei, but nearly all tech it sees as a potential security threat. The authors of the letter, including DHS Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen and Energy Secretary Rick Perry, say Huawei's "smart" solar grid products, which include control systems called "inverters" that are capable of connecting to the wider electrical grid, present a danger to "critical U.S. electrical systems and infrastructure." The energy-grid worries are a new strand in the increasingly tangled web of technology disputes between China and the U.S., and one that will only further complicate trade talks. In just the past few months, the two countries have sparred over technology theft, knowledge-transfer laws in China, purported violations of U.S. sanctions against Iran, trade-secrets theft of tech from companies such as T-Mobile, allegations of Chinese spying using exported equipment in U.S. networks and more. The letter shows that U.S. officials will continue to fight against a full range of China-manufactured equipment, not just network equipment that would enable 5G connectivity. The issue will likely heighten the debate between U.S. officials, who say China's tech companies work hand-in-hand with the Chinese government to create tech equipment that can be used offensively against the U.S., and Chinese officials and business leaders, who have said these accusations are mere protectionism by the U.S. Huawei's inverters are used by residential, commercial and public utility customers. Huawei offers a full range of solar panel products in addition to the control systems, including the control systems and software to run and monitor power plants that process solar energy. Huawei's equipment has been adopted on a large scale by installations across Europe and, most recently, in Saudi Arabia.
Commentary: Xi-Trump consensus loadstar for China, U.S. win-win trade agreement - Xinhua | English.news.cn: (Xinhua) -- China and the United States are inching ever closer to reaching a mutually beneficial and win-win agreement with substantial progress achieved on specific issues in their latest round of high-level economic and trade talks ending on Sunday in Washington.While the Chinese delegation said the two countries have made substantial progress on specific issues in such areas as technology transfer, protection of intellectual property rights and non-tariff barriers, U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted he "will be delaying" the increase of tariffs on Chinese imports scheduled on March 1.The past rounds of negotiations were powered by the implementation of the consensus reached by Chinese President Xi Jinping and Trump, who met in December last year after the closing of the G20 summit in Argentina.During the three rounds of high-level talks in nearly one month, both Chinese and U.S. presidents met the two negotiating teams to offer guidelines and impetus for future engagements.Bona fides and practical efforts, which have always been key to settling the disputes between China and the United States in economy and trade, have been fostering growing consensus, patching up differences and been well-received by both countries and the international community.Frank exchanges have been a catalyst in settling the disputes. It is the best choice for both China and the United States to keep consultations on an equal footing and in the light of the consensus reached by the two presidents before a mutually beneficial and win-win agreement could be reached. The extension of the latest round of negotiations and the delaying tariff increase on Chinese imports testify to the sincerity, high attention and sense of urgency of both the Chinese and U.S. sides. Yet they also indicate that there are still some differences that need more time to be ironed out. For all its worth, the past week has been key for the world's two largest economies, as are their future actions. After nearly one year of painstaking negotiations, every step in the last-shot period counts, and any mutually beneficial breakthrough lies in the ability of both sides to keep engagement on an equal footing.
Trump Vents Frustration With Trade Czar as China Talks Continue - President Donald Trump and his top trade negotiator, Robert Lighthizer, have grown increasingly frustrated with each other as a China trade deal stays elusive with a key deadline less than a week away, said people inside and close to the administration. The exasperation between the two erupted into the open during an unusual public exchange in front of China’s top negotiator, assembled U.S. officials and journalists on Friday, during which Trump took issue with Lighthizer’s explanation that any deal would take the form of a memorandum of understanding. “I don’t like MOUs because they don’t mean anything,’’ the president said, before shooting down Lighthizer when the career lawyer described such documents as legally binding. After Friday’s exchange, said two people familiar with the events, the president complained that Lighthizer had embarrassed him by publicly correcting him in front of the Chinese delegation and the press. The president also expressed frustration that Lighthizer hadn’t yet stitched up a deal that Trump views as increasingly important. Talks between Lighthizer and other senior U.S. officials and Xi’s special envoy, Liu He, continued on Saturday and were due to resume on Sunday. In a post on Twitter, the president said Sunday that the weekend talks have been “very productive.” Trump’s disappointment with his trade czar has built in recent months, according to people close to the administration, fueled by the stock market’s precipitous drop in late 2018 as the trade war with China escalated. U.S. stocks logged their worst December performance since the Great Depression, and had their biggest annual decline since 2008. Lighthizer, a longtime China hawk, was one of the chief architects of the policy that led to Trump imposing tariffs on some $250 billion in imports from China. While Trump has declared himself to be a “Tariff Man,” he’s also been increasingly eager to close what he’s pre-emptively billed as an historic deal with China. For his part, Lighthizer, 71, who’s spent years arguing for a tougher trade stand against China, has been growing irritated with Trump’s interventions, according to people familiar with the administration’s internal deliberations.
Deep divisions remain between US and China - Financial markets around the world, including in China, lifted yesterday on news that US President Trump had delayed the deadline on the imposition of additional tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, and was looking to hold a summit meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping to conclude a final trade deal.But, as the saying has it, the devil is in the detail, and an examination of what has not been agreed reveals major differences between the two sides.These centre on US demands that China undertake “structural reforms” to its economy, in the area of technological and industrial development, including an end to alleged forced technology transfers and the theft of intellectual property, as well as a pull-back of state subsidies to major industries regarded as “market distorting.”The other key contentious issue is how any agreement would be enforced.In his tweet messages announcing the decision not to impose tariffs by the previous deadline of March 1, Trump said there had been “positive progress” on US demands for “structural” changes, and that the talks with China’s chief negotiator Vice Premier Liu He had been “very productive.”In a brief statement, the official Chinese news agency Xinhua said the US and China had made “substantial progress” on specific issues, but did not provide any details. In a comment on the discussions, the news agency struck a more cautious note, saying there could be “new uncertainties” in the next stage of negotiations. The talks would be “harder at the final stage” and it called for both sides to meet half way. “But we also need to prepare for the worst-case scenario and take care of our own business in a down-to-earth way.”This assessment points to the differing positions on the US demand for “structural reforms.” The Chinese side has agreed to stepped-up action on the protection of intellectual property and to ease restrictions on US firms in the provision of financial services. But, as the Wall Street Journal reported, citing “people briefed on the discussions” the Chinese leadership “sees all those measures as aligned with the nation’s own interests” and Beijing has not given much ground on issues it sees as crucial. These include “government subsidies and support to state-owned companies and other policies that underpin the state-led economic model.”
Stocks Tumble After Lighthizer Says Too Early To Tell If Trade Deal Happens - The tensions between the China hawks (led by Lighthizer), who insist that Trump refuse to cave to Beijing and strike a deal that would be tantamount to a payoff in the form of agricultural purchases, and President Trump's purported willingness to jump at any possible deal have already surfaced in Lighthizer's testimony on Wednesday, sending stocks lower... Nasdaq is leading the drop... The yuan, another barometer of perceived trade-deal odds, also weakened. In the clearest sign yet that Lighthizer is trying to delay, or kill, the deal, the trade rep and trade delegation leader said more purchases of agricultural products from China are "not enough" to secure a deal, and that US issues with Beijing are "too serious" for ag purchases to resolve. Lighthizer said that provisions to ensure Beijing sticks to the deal, as well as significant structural changes to the Asian nation's economy, must be part of any deal. He added that much work still needs to be done to secure a deal. "This administration is pressing for significant structural changes that would allow for a more level playing field - especially when it comes to issues of intellectual property rights and technology transfers," Lighthizer said. Right now, it's "too early to tell" if any of this will happen," though he acknowledged that Trump and Xi are planning to meet next month to try and iron out some of these lingering issues
Trump Asks China To Immediately Remove All Tariffs On Agricultural Products -- While a big reason for today's rally was a fresh bout of trade deal optimism following an overnight Bloomberg report that the US is preparing for a "final trade deal" that President Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping could sign in weeks, moments ago Trump appeared to pour gasoline on the carefully scripted theater of trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing - scripted because as most strategists realize very well (or at least they should) there is no way that China will ever accept being dictated terms from the US on how to treat its currency or to never again participate in "technological transfer" as Rabobank's Michael Every explained this morning - when he tweeted that he has "asked China to immediately remove all Tariffs on our agricultural products (including beef, pork, etc.) based on the fact that we are moving along nicely with Trade discussions and I did not increase their second traunch of Tariffs to 25% on March 1st." Trump then added that this is "very important for our great farmers - and me! It certainly is important to both US farmers and Trump, not the least because if China agrees with the demand, it will show that Trump's lack of action was effectively action, and China has to respond to it with a gesture of goodwill, by de-escalating the trade war first; however and by implication, Trump's demand is also very important to China, as conceding to Trump's "ask" would be seen as a major concession by Beijing, just as the country's stock market has been storming back, an indication that China has regained leverage in the trade war with Trump. As such, Trump appears to have thrown a major spoke in the wheels of a trade war negotiation that was actually starting to simmer down following media reports that Trump was interested in putting the whole thing in the rear view mirror in order to avoid another bruising market selloff. However, now that he has vocalized the latest US demand in the public arena and not behind closed doors, and with China having no option but to respond similarly, it is unlikely that Beijing will comply without reservations, potentially resetting any progress achieved so far in trade negotiations - pardon theatrical trade negotiations - even as the market has by now priced in a successful resolution to the US-China trade conflict.
Crowley joins coalition to pass Trump’s new NAFTA - Former Democratic Rep. Joseph Crowley (N.Y.) is joining a coalition to help secure passage of President Trump's new trade agreement with Mexico and Canada. Crowley on Thursday was named honorary co-chairman of Pass USMCA, a coalition of business, trade and advocacy groups promoting swift passage of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which will replace the North American Free Trade Agreement. The coalition was launched earlier this month by President Trump’s former deputy chief of staff, Rick Dearborn. Dearborn told The Hill that the coalition approached Crowley to join the effort and is focusing on getting Democrats on board with the president's trade agreement. “I think that’s the smart focus,” Dearborn told The Hill. “There’s a lot of fresh new faces in the Democratic caucus [and we will be] providing them really good information, answering their questions, and ultimately I’m hopeful that they can see clear to be supportive of the deal. "In the end, I think it will pass,” he predicted. Trump signed the deal in November, setting off a six-month deadline for Congress to approve the pact.
Wary of Trump’s Approach, Governors Seek to Forge Own Trade Agreements --As the Trump administration seeks to renegotiate trade deals with countries around the world, governors have been stepping up their own efforts to promote their states abroad, acting as salesmen and women for home-state companies and trying to bring in foreign investment.Appearances by foreign leaders have become almost a standing feature of National Governors Association events. At the NGA's winter meeting in Washington this weekend, governors met with provincial counterparts and trade officials from Canada, Mexico and Japan. "If their companies want to grow and expand and hire more citizens, governors have to help their companies sell around the world, as well as attracting new companies in their state," said Gary Locke, a former Washington governor who was Commerce secretary under President Barack Obama.Locke now serves as honorary chair of Pass USMCA, a coalition lobbying for Congress to ratify the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, a treaty President Trump negotiated last year to update the 1993 North American Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA. White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow told the state leaders gathered in Washington that passage of USMCA will bring billions of dollars in new investment to America and update NAFTA for the digital age. "This is a huge priority for the United States and our administration," he said. Kudlow sought to assure governors that, despite his "America first" reputation, Trump supports international trade. "The president's view on trade -- free, fair and reciprocal," he said as part of an NGA panel. "Many of his critics, some including my conservative friends, have argued that he's a protectionist. I don't believe that to be the case."
Unintended Fallout of Trump Steel Duty: Solar Buying Abroad -- The Trump administration imposed a tariff on steel imports last year to get companies to buy more American metal. In some ways, the duty has the U.S. solar business doing the exact opposite. Consider the case of PanelClaw Inc., a supplier of steel racks that hold solar panels in place. Since President Donald Trump slapped tariffs on steel and aluminum last year, the Massachusetts-based company has boosted its sourcing of completed racks from India, allowing it to skirt some of the duties that apply to raw metals only. PanelClaw isn’t alone. California-based Nuance Energy, another solar-racking company, has also boosted overseas sourcing, including from China, Malaysia and Mexico, since the steel tariffs were imposed. Increasing overseas sourcing further is “on the table” if tariffs rise, Chief Executive Officer Brian Boguess said by phone. Steel prices for U.S. buyers rose about 14 percent last year after Trump, contending that foreign metal threatened U.S. national security, slapped tariffs on all steel imports under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. Tariffs raise the price of imports to make them on par with domestic goods. Unlike other commodities, steel is priced regionally. So American steel costs about 44 percent more than Chinese steel and about 31 percent more than European steel, meaning U.S. metal is the most expensive in the world right now for consumers. A key reason: the tariffs. But the obscure trade law applied only to raw steel, leaving value-added products of the metal, such as car parts, airplane parts and solar parts, shielded from the tax.
No Military Threat At US-Mexico Border, NORTHCOM Chief Tells Lawmakers -America's top military commander traveled to Capitol Hill Tuesday to tell lawmakers there is no specific force coming from the south toward the Mexico–United States border that poses a significant threat to the homeland or Army personnel stationed along the border. Air Force Gen. Terrence O'Shaughnessy, head of U.S. Northern Command and North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORTHCOM), told the Committee on Armed Services that "threats" coming from Mexico "are not military in nature.""A secure border does reduce threats to the homeland [but] … it is not a military threat," he stated. "Border security is national security. [But] right now, there is not a specific military force from the south that we are trying to take action against."Based on O'Shaughnessy's testimony, Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., said there is a gap in evidence that supports President Donald Trump's declaration of a national emergency, which circumvented Congress to fund the construction of the wall in response to a series of Central American migrant caravans approaching from the south.O'Shaughnessy's comments are similar to a leaked powerpoint presentation by the Joint Force Land Component Commander Threat Working Group titled "Operation Faithful Patriot."The presentation is marked as “UNCLASSIFIED," originally obtained by Newsweek, is an intelligence assessment of the of Central American migrant caravans.
White House is weighing TPS for Venezuelans - The White House is considering special protected immigration status to Venezuelans, a move that would prevent undocumented immigrants from the embattled South American country from being deported.According to five people familiar with the discussions, the White House has been having high-level discussions about the possibility of granting Temporary Protected Status, or TPS, to Venezuelans in the United States, which would give qualified recipients the chance to legally remain in the country and get work permits. Elliott Abrams, the Trump administration’s special envoy to Venezuela, has been one of the officials championing the cause at the White House. The idea also has received the support of Vice President Mike Pence, who earlier this week met in Colombia with Juan Guaidó, the internationally recognized interim president of Venezuela.Venezuelan-American activists, immigrant advocates and South Florida lawmakers have been lobbying the Trump administration to protect undocumented Venezuelan immigrants. But hard-line immigration activists also have taken notice of the discussions and have started to fight back — arguing that TPS is not the proper way to address the crisis. Supporters say this is what the TPS program is designed for to help nationals who can’t safely return to their home country.
Trump administration begins effort to strip work permits for immigrant spouses - — After nearly two years of delays, the Trump administration is moving ahead with its plan to stop granting work permits to the spouses of many high-skilled visa holders, an effort that could jeopardize tens of thousands of immigrant families in California alone. Rolling back the permits could have sweeping consequences for the Bay Area, where tech companies heavily rely on high-skilled immigrants. Many of those workers come to the U.S. with spouses and children, and the loss of the spousal work permits could imperil families’ ability to stay in the country or deter workers from accepting jobs here to begin with. The step forward for the regulation comes as a federal appeals court ran out of patience with the administration’s delays in issuing it. The proposed regulation was officially sent to the White House for review on Wednesday, a government database shows. That procedural step means that the Department of Homeland Security has completed its work on the policy. The White House will now put the regulation through review with other agencies, a process that can take anywhere from days to months, depending on the regulation’s complexity. At issue are work permits for nearly 100,000 immigrants who are here with spouses, working on high-tech visas and seeking green cards. (Spouses and children of H-1B visa holders have H-4 visas granting residence.) The largest share of those, nearly 30,000 of them, live in California, according to a Congressional Research Service report.
Former Trump refugee director did not notify superiors about family separation warnings - The controversial former head of the HHS Office of Refugee Resettlement told a House panel Tuesday that he did not pass along warnings about the psychological impact of separating children from their families. Under questioning from Democrats on the House Judiciary Committee, Scott Lloyd said he did not tell his superiors that separating children from families could have lasting health consequences. Lloyd’s testimony was the first time he has spoken about the policy since it was implemented under his watch. Commander Scott White, a top career official in the public health service corps, told lawmakers he repeatedly raised concerns with Lloyd as far back as 2017, when the policy was first being discussed internally. White said he told Lloyd family separation would be inconsistent with the agency’s legal requirement to act in the best interests of children.Lloyd, who joined HHS in March 2017, was effectively removed from his post in November. He is now a senior adviser at the agency’s Center for Faith and Opportunity Initiatives. His tenure at ORR was rocky and dogged by controversy. Aside from separated children, he also faced scrutiny and outrage from abortion rights groups and congressional Democrats for his role in blocking unaccompanied minors in federal custody from getting abortions.
Thousands of Detained Children Sexually Abused While in US Custody — A House hearing on the Trump administration’s family separation policy on Tuesday revealed that thousands of children in U.S. custody over the past five years have been subjected to sexual abuse in migrant detention centers.Rep. Ted Deutch (D-Fla.) released documents from the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) showing that more than 4,500 complaints of sexual abuse against minors were filed between 2014 and 2018. More than 1,300 complaints were referred to the Department of Justice.“I am deeply concerned with documents that have been turned over by HHS that record a high number of sexual assaults on unaccompanied children in the custody of the Office of Refugee and Resettlement,” Deutch said. “Together, these documents detail an environment of systemic sexual assaults by staff on unaccompanied children.”Immigrant rights advocates decried the revelations. Among them was Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) who wrote on social media that the report details “taxpayer-funded abuses of migrant refugee children.”A shocking report on the taxpayer funded abuses of migrant refugee children. The horrifying conditions these children face is a human rights emergency that won't be solved with a wall.https://t.co/KCoPEzscwY— Ilhan Omar (@IlhanMN) February 26, 2019 Of the complaints that were received by the DOJ—during both the Trump administration, whose immigration policies have provoked international outrage and numerous accusations of human rights abuses, but also the Obama administration—178 involved an adult staff member abusing a minor. More than 800 involved other unaccompanied minors perpetrating the abuse. Complaints regarding HHS employees and federal contractors who were hired to run detention centers involved molestation, statutory rape, and adults who showed pornographic material to children in their care.
Ocasio-Cortez Wants Hearing on Banks Funding Immigrant Prisons -Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said she wants Wall Street to tell Congress why it’s lending to private prisons that hold undocumented immigrants. "We’re going to hold oversight hearings to make these banks accountable for investing in and making money off of the detention of immigrants," she said at an event last week in Queens hosted by the nonprofit Make the Road New York. "Because it’s wrong.” The New York congresswoman was named this year to the House Financial Services Committee. Its chair, Maxine Waters, reached out to the biggest U.S. banks about testifying, Bloomberg reported after Democrats took control of the House last month. It’s not clear if Ocasio-Cortez plans to ask for a separate hearing. JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp., the two biggest U.S. banks, are among lenders to GEO Group Inc. and CoreCivic Inc., which run facilities that have held immigrant families. "People deserve to know who is benefiting from caging children," said Ana Maria Archila, co-executive director of the Center for Popular Democracy, an advocacy group connected to Make the Road. "Too little is known about the profit motives behind aggressive immigration enforcement."
US Tax Refunds Plummet 17% Under New Plan - The average tax refund in the United States is down 17% so far in the first filing season under President Trump's tax plan, reports Bloomberg, citing IRS data. As a result, the Treasury Department is cautioning that the data could be misleading. Direct-deposit refunds dropped for the third week in a row this filing season to $2,703, from $3,256 a year earlier, for the seven days through Feb. 15, the IRS reported late Friday. The total number of refunds was down 26.5 percent to 23.5 million, it said. -BloombergThe Treasury Department said in a late Friday statement that they have received massive public interest in taxpayer data from the current tax filing season, and that while refunds are down, individuals' overall tax liability has also fallen - resulting in larger paychecks. "The size of someone’s tax refund says nothing about whether their taxes have gone up or down," reads the statement. "Data this early in the filing season has many aberrations and isn’t useful in drawing broad conclusions on refunds overall." Refunds have gotten smaller due to fewer available deductions and credits, along with revised withholding tables. The IRS has also waived some penalties for those whose did not have enough withheld over the year. Uncertainty about refunds and smaller checks could weaken consumer spending as taxpayers grow more cautious. U.S. retail sales unexpectedly fell in December, marking the worst drop in nine years, according to Commerce Department data.The Treasury has defended the drop in tax-refund checks, which some are interpreting as a higher tax liability, rather than income distributed over 12 months. The agency released the data on Friday night instead of during the day. –Bloomberg
SALT Cap Will Leave Nearly 10.9 Million People Feeling Tax Pain - About 10.9 million people are losing out on one of their most prized tax breaks -- the deduction for state and local taxes. That’s the number of people the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration estimates had tax bills above the $10,000 deduction cap included in the 2017 tax overhaul. The law limited the amount of state and local taxes -- or SALT -- that taxpayers can write off, a change most acutely felt in high-tax states including New York, New Jersey, Maryland and California, where tax bills can easily exceed the threshold. These taxpayers collectively have $323 billion in state and local tax bills that can’t be deducted, according to a redacted version of the report initially released Tuesday. The limitation has caused a series of bill introductions in Congress from New York and New Jersey lawmakers seeking to reinstate the full SALT deduction. The report issued on Tuesday was heavily redacted. Treasury’s inspector general reports frequently include redacted information to protect sensitive details, such as IRS’s audit processes that the public could exploit. This report contained no such information. House Democrats released the full report on Wednesday. The report found that the IRS worked quickly to issue guidance to block high-tax states’ efforts to pass laws that would allow their taxpayers to avoid the SALT limitation. Legislatures in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut were all considering bills to create workarounds to the SALT cap, which were invalidated by the IRS guidance, which the report said Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin reviewed. The report comes as taxpayers are in the middle of filing their returns to the IRS for the first time under the new tax law. In addition to the SALT deduction limit, many taxpayers are also finding that their refunds are smaller than anticipated because of changes in withholding throughout the year.
Lower refunds amplify calls to restore key tax deduction - Complaints about lower refunds and higher taxes are amplifying calls from Northeast and West Coast leaders to do away with the GOP tax law’s limit on the deduction for state and local taxes. The limit on the tax break, known as the SALT deduction, has been one of the most controversial provisions of the tax law, with lawmakers from both parties in high-tax states such as New York and New Jersey arguing that the deduction cap unfairly punishes their voters. A group of Democratic governors held a press conference on Friday to press Congress to restore the full SALT deduction. "It is appropriate that we're having this discussion in the middle of tax season as [the deduction cap] is gutting our middle class and it's just plain wrong," said New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy. The governors' press conference comes after New Jersey Democrats Rep. Bill Pascrell and Sen. Bob Menendez earlier this month introduced a bill to restore the full SALT deduction. It's one of several bipartisan bills that lawmakers have introduced this year to restore the full SALT deduction, and it has the backing of a number of lawmakers in the Northeast, Illinois and California, including Rep. Chris Smith (N.J.), one of the few House Republicans who voted against the 2017 law and remains in office. In an op-ed for The North Jersey Record on Friday, Pascrell and Menendez called the SALT deduction cap “a main culprit for the tax sticker shock in New Jersey and other high cost-of-living states.”
Millions Of Americans Are Getting Angrier- Tax Refund Shortfall Hits $46 Billion - Two weeks ago we reported that as a result of less tax withholding in 2018, millions of Americans (who got more money in their pocket in 2018 compared to 2017) will be "angry" once they see the amount of their tax refund. Now, with tax session approaching its peak, we can quantify just how big the "shortfall" at least relative to taxpayer expectations and Wall Street estimates will be. As UBS calculates, the realized net payments to households are now running below the bank's forecast, with the cumulative shortfall rising to a whopping $45.5bln, an amount which could have significant adverse implications on Americans' spending habits if most taxpayers had expected their 2019 refund to be similar to 2018. That said, there is a specific reason why refunds have been running behind expectations: last week’s dramatic shortfall in tax refunds arises largely from timing of refunds that include the earned income tax credit and the child tax credit. According to the Department of Treasury, the IRS had processed less than half of those payments, whereas in 2018 all such credits had been completed (Treasury statement). As a result, in 2018, Treasury issued $60bln in refunds on February 22. On the same day in 2019, refunds were $24.5bln. So, if one assumes Treasury’s estimate of 50% is correct, we should get another bulk payment of equal size next week. Another reason to expect makeup this week is from the calendar. Last year, the 22 fell on a Thursday, this year on a Friday. That timing, while seeming inconsequential, could easily have pushed payments from last week to this week, according to UBS. Still, whatever the reason, refunds are now well behind last year’s pace as shown in the chart below...
Middle Class Loses, Plutocrats Win With Trump’s Tax Cuts - (Real News Network video) Trump’s “middle class tax cut” is a tax hike. NEP’s Bill Black says Trump could have been a popular President, if he hadn’t lied about middle class tax cuts and building infrastructure in Bill’s latest appearance on The Real News Network. You can view with transcript here.
The Trump Tax Cut and Big Pharma - CEOs of 7 pharmaceutical multinationals addressed the Senate Finance Committee: Pharma execs offer Senate ideas to lower drug costs – except actually cutting prices. Executives from seven pharmaceutical companies — AbbVie, AstraZeneca, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Johnson & Johnson, Merck, Pfizer and Sanofi — are testifying before the Senate Finance Committee. The pharma executives have a number of ideas to reduce drug prices for patients, except lowering list prices. High drug prices has become a rare bipartisan issue, with lawmakers on both sides of the aisle demanding change. One of these questions posed to the CEO of Abbvie was how much of the benefit from the 2017 tax cut did his company pass onto consumers. I guess the Senator was expecting an honest answer being “none”. But the actual answer came out that AbbVie did not get much benefit from this reduction of corporate profit tax rates. How could that be? Well – look at its past 10-K filings and you will see that AbbVie has sourced little to none of its massive profits to the U.S. parent. Why would you benefit from a tax rate cut when one is engaged in massive transfer pricing manipulation?!
ACA plans denied nearly 1 in 5 in-network claims in 2017 -- Dive Brief:
- Affordable Care Act marketplace plans denied 19% of claims submitted for in-network service in 2017. Only 0.5% of those denied claims were appealed, according to a new Kaiser Family Foundation report.
- KFF found huge denial rate variations between payers, ranging from 1% to 45%. There were vast differences within states, too.
- Only about 200,000 of the almost 43 million denied claims were appealed. Appeals reversed denied claims in about 14% of cases, though there were wide variations among payers (1% to 88%), according to the analysis.
Dive Insight: A byproduct of claim denials is that members wind up with surprise medical bills, which lead to large out-of-pocket costs for patients. Surprise bills can also force providers and hospitals to track down payments from those patients, or face uncompensated care costs themselves. Denied claims and surprise billing go well beyond the ACA marketplace.Kaiser Family Foundation recently reported that about 40% of Americans said they have received a surprise medical bill. A 2017 report by Change Healthcare found about 9% of claims were initially denied in the previous year. That totaled $262 billion in initially rejected claims. Payer cost-controlling policies, such as Anthem's emergency room policy, may exacerbate the issue. Those policies, which are ostensibly put in place to contain costs, can also mean a bigger chance of claim denials. In its latest research, KFF reviewed almost 230 million claims submitted by 130 payers in the ACA exchanges in 2017. The findings show wide denial variations for payers, though some of the difference might be reporting discrepancies, KFF said. At this point, researchers can't pinpoint exactly why a payer denied claims. There's a big difference between a denial for a redundant claim or one for services being deemed medically unnecessary. That barrier makes it difficult to figure out denial trends.
Former Aetna Medical Director Admits to Never Reviewing Patients' Records Before Denying Care - In an eye-opening exclusive reported by CNN, it was revealed that former Aetna Medical Director, Dr. Jay Ken Iinuma, admitted under oath that “he never looked at patients’ records when deciding whether to approve or deny care.” This admission was made during a deposition in a lawsuit brought against Aetna by Gillen Washington, a 23 year old with common variable immune deficiency (CVID) who was denied coverage for an infusion of intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) four years ago..In his deposition, Iinuma, as reported by CNN, “said he was following Aetna’s training, in which nurses reviewed records and made recommendations to him.”In this particular case, Iinuma admitted that he had minimal if any knowledge of the medical condition, common variable immune deficiency (CVID), that Washington suffered from. He was also not clear about what the most effective drug would be to treat the patients’s condition, the symptoms of CVID, or even the consequences of the abrupt discontinuation of therapy for the condition.“Do I know what happens?" Iinuma said. “Again, I’m not sure…I don’t treat it,” according to the deposition, as reported by CNN. Further, when asked by Washington's attorney if it was his general practice to look at medical records as part of his decision making process, he replied that it was not.
What Would ‘Medicare for All’ Do to Medicare? - NYT -- The first legislative proposal of the year on the subject could help shape the terms of the debate. The basic idea of “Medicare for all” is that all Americans should get access to the popular, government-run program. But a new bill toward this goal, the first introduced in the current Congress, would also drastically reshape Medicare itself.The bill, from Representative Pramila Jayapal of Washington and more than 100 Democratic House co-sponsors, would greatly expand Medicare and eliminate the current structure of premiums, co-payments and deductibles.Americans would be able to see a doctor and take medicines without paying money beyond the taxes that would support the program. (The precise source of that tax revenue is, so far, unspecified.) The new Medicare envisioned by the bill would cover new benefits, including dental, vision and long-term nursing home care.It would be wrong to think of the Jayapal bill as simply expanding the current Medicare program to cover more people and more benefits. It also would make major changes to the way doctors and hospitals are paid. This would change not just how Americans get their insurance, but it could also reshape the health care system in ways that are difficult to predict.Currently, Medicare (as well as most private insurance) pays most doctors and hospitals for each service performed. There’s one fee for a standard checkup, and another for appendicitis surgery, for example.Medicare determines prices for those various services, and medical providers are paid for performing them. Then those doctors and hospitals are largely free to allocate the money they make as they see fit. For-profit hospitals may return some of the dollars to their investors. Nonprofit hospitals might use them to buy new gadgets or upgrade to private rooms — or provide charity care for people without insurance. The Jayapal bill would upend that system. Instead of paying hospitals per treatment, Medicare would try to come up with an appropriate lump sum payment for every hospital and nursing home in the country — what the bill calls a “global budget” payment. Hospitals would then determine how to offer the care its patients need under that budget. There are some release valves, like an emergency fund in case of an epidemic. The bill would also place restrictions on how hospitals could use the money. They wouldn’t be allowed to spend it on political donations or marketing, for example, or on bonuses to employees who hit productivity targets. A separate fund, managed by another part of the reimagined Medicare, would provide funding for capital improvements. A hospital would not be allowed to, say, buy an M.R.I. machine with the money from its global budget.
Trump Administration Blocks Funds for Planned Parenthood and Others Over Abortion Referrals The Trump administration announced on Friday that it will bar organizations that provide abortion referrals from receiving federal family planning money, a step that could strip millions of dollars from Planned Parenthood and direct it toward religiously-based, anti-abortion groups.The new federal rule is almost certain to be challenged in court. Clinics will be able to talk to patients about abortion, but not where they can get one. And clinics will no longer have to counsel women on all reproductive options, including abortion, a change that will make anti-abortion providers eligible for funding.The rule, which has been expected for months, is the most recent step by the Trump administration to shift the direction of federal health programs in a conservative direction. The administration has expanded the ability of employers to claim religious or moral objections to the Affordable Care Act’s requirement that they offer employees insurance coverage for contraception. It has channeled funding for teen pregnancy prevention programs and family planning grants into programs that emphasize sexual abstinence over contraception.Some of these changes are being challenged in lawsuits by groups that support reproductive rights, but the new policies have broad support among evangelicals, who are a big part of the president’s political base. The rule announced on Friday is not a wholesale defunding of Planned Parenthood, a long-held goal of conservatives. Organizations receiving money through the federal family planning program, called Title X, will still be able to perform abortions but will have to do so in a separate facility from their other operations and adhere to the new requirement that they not refer patients to it.
Supreme Court seems reluctant to extend First Amendment protections to social media users - The justices of the U.S. Supreme Court on Monday heard arguments in a First Amendment case that experts have said could have ramifications for how the nation's largest social media companies are permitted to moderate the content on their platforms. But the justices' questions during oral argument revealed a reluctance to enter into that fraught arena, suggesting that the future ruling on the matter will hew narrowly to questions specific to the facts of the case, which involved not social media but instead public-access television channels in New York City. In particular, Justices Brett Kavanaugh and Stephen Breyer, who sit on opposite ends of the ideological spectrum, expressed unease with the notion that the First Amendment could apply to private companies operating private property, such as Twitter and YouTube. And the other justices, led by Chief Justice John Roberts, largely honed in on extremely narrow questions of fact that suggested the court was not gearing up for a large revision of its existing precedent. "Nothing about today's hearing suggested that Twitter is in danger of being found to be a state actor any time soon," said Jeffrey Robbins, a partner at Saul Ewing Arnstein & Lehr and a former assistant U.S. Attorney for the District of Massachusetts. That's potentially good news for the social media companies, which under the current interpretation of the First Amendment have broad discretion to remove content from their platforms or prevent people from using their services.
Supreme Court Screw-Up Sullies U.S. Constitution -- Giving a speech at Georgetown University, late Justice William J. Brennan, Jr., said: “[T]he Constitution is a sublime oration on the dignity of man.” However, after the Supreme Court’s February 7 refusal to stay devout Muslim Domineque Ray’s execution – despite Ray’s unrebutted claim only Christian prisoners in Alabama are afforded a spiritual advisor during their final moments – this high-minded aspiration for one of our country’s founding documents appears to be, as it has before (see, for example, Dred Scott, Plessy v. Ferguson, Korematsu), empty words. As Justice Kagan observed in dissent, it was “profoundly wrong.” The morning after Ray’s unholy execution, Pulitzer Prize-winning columnist John Archibald wrote: “There was a lot of legal maneuvering in the days and hours leading up to a U.S. Supreme Court decision that allowed his 6 p.m. execution. The prison ultimately gave him back his Quran and the state said it would not force him to have the Christian chaplain present, though it would not let any outsider into the execution chamber for security reasons, even in the name of religious freedom. That protocol, prison officials said, has not changed.”
Judge Rules Male-Only Draft Violates Constitution - Requiring only men to register for the draft is unconstitutional, a federal judge has ruled. The Military Selective Service Act states that men in the U.S. ages 18 through 25 must register in case the country needs a military draft. Women face no such requirement. On Friday, a federal judge in Texas ruled that a males-only draft violates the equal protection provisions of the U.S. Constitution. While historical restrictions on women in the military may have justified past discrimination, they don't anymore, wrote Senior Judge Gray Miller of the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Texas. "If there ever was a time to discuss 'the place of women in the Armed Services,' that time has passed," he wrote, citing an earlier Supreme Court decision. That case, dating from the early 1980s, had held that requiring only men to register for the draft didn't violate the Constitution. Since only men were eligible to serve in combat, the court reasoned, it would have made no sense to require women to register. Times have changed, the Texas judge said. In 2013, the Department of Defense officially lifted the ban on women in combat, and in 2015 it lifted all gender-based restrictions. "The dispositive fact" in that case — that women are ineligible for combat — "can no longer justify the MSSA's gender-based discrimination," he wrote. The latest case was brought by the National Coalition For Men, an advocacy group dedicated to raising awareness of discrimination against men. "Forcing only males to register is an aspect of socially institutionalized male disposability," the group said in a statement. "Men still face prison, fines, and denial of federal loans for not registering or for not updating the government of their whereabouts." Women, it said, "should face the same repercussions as men for any noncompliance."
U.S. Justice Department will not appeal AT&T, Time Warner merger after court loss (Reuters) - AT&T Inc emerged victorious on Tuesday over the Trump administration’s drawn-out attempts to block its $85.4 billion purchase of Time Warner as the U.S. Justice Department said it would not fight an appeals court ruling approving the deal. The acquisition had been closely watched in political circles after coming under fire from U.S. President Donald Trump, who opposed it because he saw it helping Time Warner’s CNN unit, which he has accused of broadcasting “fake news.” The three-judge panel on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia ruled unanimously in favor of the deal on Tuesday, saying that the government’s case that the merger would result in higher consumer prices was “unpersuasive.” The decision ended a 15-month effort by the Justice Department to block the deal. It was AT&T’s second major court victory against the Justice Department, setting the stage for the No. 2 wireless carrier to integrate its WarnerMedia business as well as its new Xandr advertising unit. “We are grateful that the Court of Appeals considered our objections to the District Court opinion. The department has no plans to seek further review,” Justice Department spokesman Jeremy Edwards said in a statement. Makan Delrahim, the head of the Justice Department’s antitrust division, telephoned AT&T General Counsel David McAtee and Time Warner’s former general counsel, Paul Cappuccio, to congratulate them on the court victory, according to a source familiar with events. McAtee said the merger “has already yielded significant consumer benefits and will continue to do so for years to come.” The deal has been seen as a turning point for a media industry that has been upended by companies like Netflix Inc and Alphabet Inc’s Google that put content online with no need for a cable subscription. The merger, which was announced in October 2016, closed on June 14, 2018, shortly after U.S. District Judge Richard Leon ruled it was legal under antitrust law.
Americans’ Perceptions of U.S. World Image Best Since 2003 - Gallup-- Fifty-eight percent of Americans believe the U.S. rates "very" or "somewhat favorably" in the world's eyes. Though the current figure is up just slightly from the 55% recorded last year, it represents the highest figure Gallup has found since 2003.The increase in the overall figure is the result of an increase in the percentage of political independents saying the U.S. is rated favorably abroad, up eight percentage points, from 50% to 58%. Meanwhile, the views of Americans identifying as Republican or Democratic haven't changed.A relatively high proportion of Republicans say the U.S. is viewed favorably (80%), matching their views in 2018. This is the highest level of Republicans' confidence in the country's global image since 2002 during the post-9/11 period of the George W. Bush administration.Far fewer Democrats during Donald Trump's presidency have said the country is viewed positively abroad, with their latest 36% matching last year's figure. Democrats current negativism on this measure is similar to what it was at certain points in President G.W. Bush's second term. At the same time, Americans are fairly upbeat about the country's global image, the percentage satisfied with the position of the U.S. in the world today is also at a relatively high ebb. Though Americans remain more likely to say they are dissatisfied than satisfied, the percentage who are dissatisfied is at its lowest since 2005. The years of 2000 to 2003 were an exception to the dissatisfied pattern, as Americans were more satisfied than dissatisfied by double-digit margins amid a strong economy -- as well as the rallying effect that occurred after the attacks on 9/11. In February 2003 -- as the U.S. failed to win UN approval for the Iraq War -- Americans were about equally satisfied as dissatisfied.
House passes bill for universal background checks - The House on Wednesday passed the Bipartisan Background Checks Act, which would require background checks for all firearm sales, including those sold at gun shows and online. This is the first gun control bill that Congress has considered in nearly 25 years. Gun control has been near the top of the Democratic agenda since the party took back control of the House in November's midterms, galvanized by recent mass shootings and student-led activism. The bill, HR 8, also prohibits firearms transfers by a person who is not a licensed dealer. However, it does exclude "gifts to family members and transfers for hunting, target shooting, and self-defense," according to the House Judiciary Committee website.
- House Republicans were also able to add an amendment to the bill — with support from some Democrats — that would force the NICS background check database to notify ICE if an undocumented immigrant attempts to buy a firearm.
- Critics of the bill, including shooting survivor Rep. Steve Scalise (R-La.), note that universal background checks would target law-abiding owners and could not have prevented several recent shootings in which shooters had passed a federal background check.
- Majority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.) told CNN on Tuesday that it's "unlikely" the Republican majority will take up the bill for debate soon. A second bill, the Enhanced Background Checks Act, is up for a vote in the House on Thursday. It would extend time for the FBI to conduct background checks.
'Fox & Friends' host says Ocasio-Cortez's staff salary plans 'socialism and communism on display' -- "Fox & Friends" weekend co-host Pete Hegseth said Sunday that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's (D-N.Y.) move to cap higher-level staff incomes in order to pay every member of her staff an annual salary of at least $52,000 was an example of communism and socialism. "It’s actually socialism and communism on display," Hegseth said on weekend version of the popular Fox News program. Hegseth made the comments as a group of co-hosts discussed Ocasio-Cortez's decision to pay what she said was a "living wage" to the staffers in her office. “It’s likely one of the highest entry-level salaries on the Hill,” Ocasio-Cortez wrote on Twitter on Friday. “We pinch pennies elsewhere, but it’s worth every dime to pay a living wage.” Corbin Trent, Ocasio-Cortez’s communications director, told Roll Call that salaries for the congresswoman’s office would top out at $80,000 due to the policy. The median wage for top congressional staffers is $154,634, according to a Legistorm analysis reported by USA Today last year of congressional chiefs of staffs. Ocasio-Cortez announced in December that she would also pay her interns at least $15 an hour. Hegseth criticized the decision while noting that "every Capitol Hill office has a limited amount of money to pay their staff." "So you have to decide how to allocate it. She said everyone in my office will pay a living wage," Hegseth said, adding that her policies on salaries would lead her chief of staff to earn a salary below the "actual market rate."
Ocasio-Cortez responds to Ivanka Trump: 'I actually worked for tips and hourly wages - 'Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) responded Tuesday to criticism from Ivanka Trump by suggesting Trump's daughter learned about working "for tips & hourly wages ... 2nd hand." "As a person who actually worked for tips & hourly wages in my life, instead of having to learn about it 2nd-hand, I can tell you that most people want to be paid enough to live," Ocasio-Cortez tweeted, with a link to reports of Ivanka Trump slamming Ocasio-Cortez earlier in the day. "A living wage isn’t a gift, it’s a right. Workers are often paid far less than the value they create," she continued. Ocasio-Cortez and Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) introduced the Green New Deal earlier this month. The climate change resolution seeks to eliminate greenhouse gas emissions while also creating millions of jobs. The resolution includes a universal jobs guarantee. Ivanka Trump, responding to the Green New Deal proposal, said in an interview set to air Sunday on Fox News that she doesn't think most Americans "want to be given something" and added that she believes "people want to work for what they get." “So, I think that this idea of a guaranteed minimum is not something most people want. They want the ability to be able to secure a job. They want the ability to live in a country where there’s the potential for upward mobility,” Trump added. Trump clarified later on Tuesday that she supports a minimum wage, but not "a minimum guarantee for people 'unwilling to work.'"
Disempower Lobbyists: Give Congressional Staff a Raise - Alexis Goldstein - Over the weekend, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez tweeted that her office was going to ensure a living wage for all her staffers by paying no one less than $52,000, which constitutes a living wage in Washington, D.C., for two adults, with one working. Part of making that a reality in Ocasio-Cortez’s office means capping her staff salaries at $80,000. Staff salaries are not fixed: in 2018, each office had an average of $1.36 million to spend on staff salaries and official office expenses — the actual number will vary based on factors like the cost of renting an office in the member of Congress’s district. While $1.36 million may sound like a lot, with multiple roles to fill in D.C. and in the district, it’s spent quickly. In addition to in-district office space, members need staff who can draft legislation to enact a member of Congress’s policy proposals; staff dedicated to all the various policy issues a member of Congress must vote on; constituent services staff to help people who live in the member’s district; a scheduler to handle the flood of meeting requests and help the member manage the demands on their time; communications staff; and more. As Ocasio-Cortez noted, some of these staffers helping to run the country make around $30,000 in a district where the average rent for a one-bedroom apartment goes for over $2,000 a month. Low staff salaries and limited staff budgets don’t just mean that we aren’t investing in the people who help ensure we have a well-functioning government — they also empower corporate lobbyists. The revolving door is the most familiar problem: Someone working for a deep-pocketed trade association (the sort of association that represents industries like banking or telecom, and spends time crafting proposed legislation, compiling research and lobbying Congress) can make multiple times what they’d make as a congressional staffer, especially if they have lots of connections, even though they’re doing the same work. However, the impact of low staff salaries goes beyond the temptation for a staffer barely making ends meet in a very expensive city to cash out. After all, businesses now spend more money lobbying Congress than taxpayers do for all congressional staff. Why? Because when congressional offices are overwhelmed or understaffed, corporate lobbyists and employees of trade associations are eager to fill in the gaps and provide free labor.
Foreign Affairs Committee Chair denounces new Omar statements on Israel - Rep. Eliot Engel (D-N.Y.), the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, slammed Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) on Friday for comments she made this week that he said are anti-Semitic.“I welcome debate in Congress based on the merits of policy, but it’s unacceptable and deeply offensive to call into question the loyalty of fellow American citizens because of their political views, including support for the U.S.-Israel relationship,” Engel said in a statement.“Her comments were outrageous and deeply hurtful, and I ask that she retract them, apologize, and commit to making her case on policy issues without resorting to attacks that have no place in the Foreign Affairs Committee or the House of Representatives.”Omar, a member of the Foreign Affairs Committee, has been criticized recently over a slew of comments regarding Israel that many deemed offensive. She was speaking about the influence of special interest groups who advocate for a strong relationship between the U.S. and Israel.“I want to talk about the political influence in this country that says it is O.K. for people to push for allegiance to a foreign country,” she said during an event at a Washington bookstore this week, according to The New York Times. She went on to question why it was acceptable for her to criticize the influence of the NRA, fossil fuel industries and other special interest groups but not the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). The concept of dual loyalty has been a historical aspect of anti-Semitism, with nations accusing its Jewish populations of secretly valuing their loyalty to Israel over their home country.
Omar condemns poster linking her to 9/11 attack: No wonder why I'm on a 'hitlist' - Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) on Friday slammed Republicans after a poster linking her to the 9/11 attack was hung in the West Virginia statehouse, saying it's "no wonder" she is on the "hit list" of a domestic terrorist."No wonder why I am on the 'Hitlist' of a domestic terrorist and 'Assassinate Ilhan Omar' is written on my local gas stations. Look no further, the GOP's anti-Muslim display likening me to a terrorist rocks in state capitols and no one is condemning them!" Omar wrote on Twitter.The poster was reportedly put on display for a “Republicans Take the Rotunda” event. It shows a photo of the Twin Towers in flames with the words, "Never forget - you said...." followed by, "I am the proof you have forgotten," alongside a photo of Omar.It wasn't immediately clear what "hit list" Omar was referring to in her tweet, though prosecutors have saidthat the Minnesota lawmaker was among the Democrats included on a list of targets for a Coast Guard lieutenant arrested for plotting to kill prominent politicians. The poster at the West Virginia statehouse reportedly sparked an explosive argument on Friday between Democrats and the House's Republican sergeant at arms, Anne Lieberman, for allegedly making an anti-Muslim remark. According to Democrat Mike Angelucci, Lieberman said, "all Muslims are terrorists." Lieberman denied making the remark, but later resigned. One staffer was also reportedly injured during the fighting and had to be sent to the hospital.
Sentencing Memo Paints Manafort as Someone Who ‘Repeatedly and Brazenly’ Broke Law - NYT - Federal prosecutors on Saturday portrayed Paul Manafort, President Trump’s former campaign chairman, as a hardened, remorseless criminal who “repeatedly and brazenly” violated a host of laws over more than a decade and did not deserve any breaks when he is sentenced in coming weeks.The prosecutors’ sentencing memo, filed in one of the most high-profile cases mounted by the office of the special counsel, Robert S. Mueller III, and unsealed on Saturday, painted a damning portrait of Mr. Manafort, 69, a political consultant who led Mr. Trump’s campaign during a critical five-month period in 2016.The memo involved one of two federal cases against Mr. Manafort. Prosecutors did not recommend a sentence, instead citing sentencing guidelines of up to 22 years for a wide-ranging conspiracy involving obstruction of justice, money laundering, hidden overseas bank accounts and false statements to the Justice Department. But the two charges Mr. Manafort pleaded guilty to in the case carry a maximum sentence of 10 years. [Read the sentencing memo.] The memo came as Mr. Mueller is believed to be wrapping up his investigation into Russia’s interference in the 2016 presidential election, whether any associates of Mr. Trump were complicit in Moscow’s operation and whether the president obstructed justice infighting the inquiry. The prosecutors and the defense will both have their final say about Mr. Manafort next month when he is sentenced for a total of 10 felonies stemming from the two separate prosecutions, one in Washington, D.C., and the other in Northern Virginia. Given his age, Mr. Manafort faces the prospect of spending the rest of his life, or something close to it, in prison.
Michael Cohen disbarred- report - Michael Cohen, President Trump's former personal attorney, has reportedly been disbarred.The New York Post reported Tuesday that the decision was announced by Manhattan’s Appellate Division, First Department and the Attorney Grievance Committee.The disbarment comes after Cohen pleaded guilty to eight federal charges last year — tax fraud, campaign finance violations and lying to Congress — and was sentenced to three years in federal prison.He is expected to report to prison in May.New York law says that any person convicted of a felony is not permitted to practice law.Cohen was admitted to the New York bar in 1992 after graduating from Thomas M. Cooley Law School in Michigan, according to the newspaper, which added that he worked for several years as a personal attorney to Trump.Cohen can seek to be reinstated to the New York bar in seven years, according to state law. Cohen will testify behind closed doors to the Senate and House Intelligence committees on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively, in connection with their investigations into Russia's election interference.His public testimony before the Democratic-led House Oversight and Reform Committee on Wednesday is expected to focus on Trump’s family business.
Cohen informed prosecutors about Trump Organization's business dealings- report - President Trump’s former lawyer Michael Cohen reportedly told prosecutors about possible irregular business dealings within the Trump family business. The New York Times reports that sources familiar with Cohen's discussions with prosecutors in Manhattan say that the lawyer spoke about insurance claims the Trump Organization had filed, though it was unclear what the possible irregularities were.It also wasn't clear how serious the implications of Cohen's information was to prosecutors, according to the Times.Cohen is awaiting the start of his three-year prison term, set to begin later this year, and could possibly be working with prosecutors in an attempt to reduce his sentence, according to the report.The White House declined to comment to the Times, referring questions instead to the Trump Organization, which did not respond to inquiries.The White House did not immediately reply to a request for comment from The Hill. Prosecutors also questioned Cohen about his conversations with Imaad Zuberi, a political fundraiser who tried to hire Cohen as a consultant around the time of Trump's inauguration while donating $900,000 to the inaugural committee, according to the Times.Lanny Davis, Cohen's attorney, told the newspaper that Cohen was “interested in cooperating with and assisting” prosecutors “in any way they believe is helpful" when asked for comment.Cohen was convicted last year of bank and tax fraud as well as campaign finance violations for his role in payments made to Stormy D aniels and Karen McDougal, two women who alleged having had affairs with Trump before he was president.
Cohen: 'I’m going to let the American people decide exactly who’s telling the truth' - President Trump's former attorney and fixer Michael Cohen on Tuesday said that he will let "the American people decide exactly who’s telling the truth" ahead of his widely anticipated public hearing before the House Oversight Committee on Wednesday. "I really appreciate the opportunity that was given to me to clear the record and to tell the truth," Cohen told reporters after his hours-long private testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee. "And I look forward to tomorrow, to being able to use my voice to tell the American people my story," he continued. "And I’m going to let the American people decide exactly who’s telling the truth." Cohen is expected to drop several bombshells about his work for the president and the Trump Organization during the public hearing on Wednesday. Tuesday marked the president's former lawyer's first appearance before congressional investigators since he pleaded guilty last year to making false statements to Congress.
Matt Gaetz just straight-out threatened Michael Cohen – Less than 24 hours before former Trump fixer Michael Cohen is scheduled to appear in an open hearing to discuss his relationship with the President of the United States and shed light on his involvement in a hush money scheme involving two women alleging they had affairs with the billionaire businessman, Florida Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz directly threatened Cohen via Twitter. "Hey @MichaelCohen212," Gaetz tweeted on Tuesday afternoon. "Do your wife & father-in-law know about your girlfriends? Maybe tonight would be a good time for that chat. I wonder if she'll remain faithful when you're in prison. She's about to learn a lot..." Gaetz offered zero proof for his claims of infidelity by Cohen. Speaking to reporters outside his office Tuesday evening, Gaetz defended his tweet, adding that it wasn't a threat. He told reporters his tweet wasn't witness-tampering, but instead was "witness-testing." Gaetz said he's trying to get into Wednesday's hearing to ask questions (he's not on the House Oversight Committee), and he added that he didn't speak with Trump about his allegations. In an interview with CBS News after the tweet, Gaetz was pressed for evidence of the claim he hinted at on his Twitter feed and he replied: "As the President loves to say, 'We'll see.' "
Matt Gaetz tweet: Florida state bar is investigating lawmaker for apparent threat against Cohen - The Florida Bar is investigating Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), who is licensed to practice law in the state, for his incendiary tweet accusing Michael Cohen of infidelity.On Tuesday, he tweeted, “Hey @MichaelCohen212 — Do your wife & father-in-law know about your girlfriends? Maybe tonight would be a good time for that chat. I wonder if she’ll remain faithful when you’re in prison. She’s about to learn a lot.”Hours after he posted the message, Gaetz apologized and deleted it, insisting that he did not intend to threaten President Trump’s former lawyer on the eve of his highly anticipated testimony before Congress.“The Florida Bar is aware of the comments made in a tweet yesterday by Rep. Matt Gaetz, who is a Florida Bar member, and I can confirm we have opened an investigation,” spokeswoman Francine Andía Walker said in a statement to The Washington Post.After the investigation, the bar will decide whether to file charges against Gaetz with the Florida Supreme Court, Walker said. “If rules have been violated, the Florida Bar will vigorously pursue appropriate discipline,” she said, declining to comment further.In an email to The Post, a spokesperson for Gaetz downplayed the regulatory agency’s investigation."It seems that the Florida Bar, by its rules, is required to investigate even the most frivolous of complaints,” said Jillian Lane Wyant, Gaetz’s chief of staff. In the tweet in question, Gaetz suggested without evidence that Cohen, who is married, had “girlfriends,” prompting some legal observers and Democrats to accuse the Florida Republican of engaging in witness tampering.
Michael Cohen: Ex-lawyer tells Congress Trump directed lies - US President Donald Trump's ex-lawyer Michael Cohen has claimed Mr Trump wanted him to lie about a property deal in Moscow amid his election campaign. In congressional testimony, Cohen said Mr Trump directed covert plans for the skyscraper, even while he denied having any business in Russia. He also said Mr Trump knew about a leak of hacked Democratic emails, and called him a "racist", "conman" and "cheat". Mr Trump hit back: "He is lying in order to reduce his prison time." The US president took time out from preparing to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Hanoi, Vietnam, on Wednesday to lash out in a tweet at his former fixer. Cohen, 52, will start a three-year prison term in May for the campaign finance violation of paying hush money to one of Mr Trump's alleged mistresses, tax evasion and lying to Congress. In his public testimony to the House of Representatives Oversight Committee on Wednesday, he said Mr Trump "knew of and directed" plans for a Trump Tower Moscow, while stating publicly that he had no dealings in Russia. "At the same time I was actively negotiating in Russia for him," Cohen testified, "he would look me in the eye and tell me there's no business in Russia and then go out and lie to the American people by saying the same thing. In his way, he was telling me to lie." "He wanted me to lie," the witness added. However, Cohen has been convicted of lying to Congress when he testified in 2017 that attempts to build a Trump skyscraper in Moscow had stopped by January 2016. He has since acknowledged negotiations actually continued until June 2016 in the midst of the election campaign, though the real estate project ultimately did not go ahead. Cohen apologised on Wednesday for his earlier false statements to Congress, which he claimed were "reviewed and edited" by Mr Trump's lawyers. Jay Sekulow, counsel to President Trump, said in a statement after the hearing: "Today's testimony by Michael Cohen that attorneys for the president edited or changed his statement to Congress to alter the duration of the Trump Tower Moscow negotiations is completely false."
Cohen claims batter Trump - Michael Cohen offered riveting testimony about his allegations against President Trump on Wednesday, laying into his former boss as a “racist” and a “cheat” in a packed House Oversight and Reform Committee room. A decidedly contrite Cohen said he was ashamed of things he had done as Trump's personal lawyer and fixer, saying he had paid for his loyalty dearly. “I blindly followed his demands,” Cohen said in closing remarks after more than seven hours of testimony. “My loyalty to Mr. Trump has cost me everything.” Wearing a powder blue tie and with Washington power attorney Lanny Davis behind him, Cohen offered up the names of Trump Organization employees who could be subject to scrutiny from congressional investigations and said Trump had prior knowledge of WikiLeaks’ dump of damaging Democratic emails during the 2016 presidential race. Cohen, who has cooperated extensively with special counsel Robert Mueller's investigators and is due to begin serving a three-year prison term in May, offered an inside look at what he has shared with federal agents. And he hinted at things that he has told investigators in private that he cannot share publicly, stating that he was unable to discuss “any other wrongdoing or illegal acts” committed by the president because they are tied to an ongoing investigation by federal prosecutors in Manhattan. The former lawyer repeatedly made reference to Trump Organization chief financial officer Allen Weisselberg, practically suggesting that Democrats bring him in for testimony. He also named other staffers in the Trump Organization, including Trump’s personal secretary, saying they would be able to corroborate his claims. Cohen testified extensively about Trump’s involvement in a scheme to pay off women who claimed to have had affairs with him during the 2016 campaign — in connection with which Cohen pleaded guilty to violating campaign finance law. “There is no doubt in my mind,” Cohen answered when asked about whether he had doubts Trump knew what he was paying for when he reimbursed Cohen for the hush-money payments throughout 2017, while he was in the Oval Office. Trump has offered shifting accounts of his knowledge of the payments but has denied any wrongdoing.
Cohen to Jim Jordan: 'Shame on you' - Michael Cohen shot back at the top Republican on the House Oversight and Reform Committee after Rep. Jim Jordan (Ohio) said Cohen was already turning back on his claims of remorse for actions he took as President Trump's lawyer. Cohen accused Jordan of twisting his words during the exchange at Wednesday's hearing, sharply telling the congressman "shame on you." "Shame on you, Mr. Jordan," Cohen said. "That is not what I said, not what I said." The back-and-forth began when Jordan accused Cohen of disputing the fact that he had committed the financial crimes that he pleaded guilty to committing after being charged by authorities in the Southern District of New York. “We just had a five minute debate where Mr. Cohen disputes what the Southern District of New York found, what the judge found that he was actually guilty of committing bank fraud," Jordan said. Cohen pushed back, saying he was merely trying to correct what GOP lawmaker Rep. James Comer (Ky.) had said in questioning him. "What I said was, I took responsibility and that I take responsibility. What I was doing was explaining to the gentleman that his facts are inaccurate. I take responsibility for my mistakes," he said. Cohen fiercely pushed back against the notion he is not remorseful of his actions. "I am remorseful and I am going to prison … I will be away from my wife and family for years. So before you turn around and cast more aspersions, there are more people watching me today who know me a whole lot better," Cohen said. "I made mistakes, and I own them. And I didn’t fight with the Southern District of New York," he continued.
Cohen tells Ocasio-Cortez that Trump inflated assets for insurance purposes - Former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen testified Wednesday that President Trump inflated and deflated his assets over the years, and provided Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) with a list of Trump associates who could provide additional information.Asked during his appearance before the House Oversight and Reform Committee if Trump ever provided inflated assets, Cohen answered that he had. The former longtime Trump lawyer added that lawmakers could find more related information and documentation at the Trump Organization and from executives Allen Weisselberg, Ron Lieberman and Matthew Calamari.Cohen also confirmed to Ocasio-Cortez that Trump was interested in reducing his local tax bills by deflating his assets. The New York congresswoman cited a golf club near her home district as an example."You deflate the value of the asset and then you put in a request to the tax department for a deduction," Cohen said, explaining the practice.Cohen said he did not know whether an October New York Times report that Trump engaged in dubious tax practices to reap millions was true, but said that Allen Weisselberg, chief financial officer for the Trump Organization, would.
Tlaib, Meadows clash over alleged 'racist act' at Cohen hearing- Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) and Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.) clashed during Michael Cohen's congressional hearing on Wednesday when she condemned as a "racist act" his use of a statement by a single black woman to disprove allegations of racism against President Trump. "Just because someone has a person of color, a black person working for them does not mean that they aren't racist," Tlaib said at the House Oversight and Reform Committee hearing. "And it is insensitive ... the fact that someone would actually use a prop, a black woman in this chamber, in this committee, is alone racist in itself," Tlaib continued, getting emotional. Meadows had invited Lynne Patton, a Trump administration staffer, who is black, to the hearing to push back against Cohen's allegations during his testimony that the president is a racist. Meadows immediately responded to Tlaib, asking that her comments be stricken from the record as he believed it was an attack on him. The freshman Democrat then repeated her comments, and clarified that she wasn't accusing Meadows of being a racist but that she believed it was a "racist act" to bring a black woman to the hearing to counter allegations of racism against Trump. "There’s nothing more personal to me than my relationship …. my nieces and nephews are people of color, not many people know that," Meadows said. "And to indicate that I asked someone who is a personal friend of the Trump family, who has worked for him, who has worked for this particulate individual … that’s she’s coming in to be a prop, it’s racist to suggest that I asked her to come in for that reason," he said. “She came in because she felt like the president was being falsely accused,” Meadows added.
Cohen Slapped With Criminal Referral Mid-Testimony Over FARA Violation - Former Trump attorney Michael Cohen was hit with a criminal referral for violating the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) by Rep. Mark Meadows (R-NC) following a heated exchange during Cohen's Wednesday testimony in front of the House Oversight Committee. Meadows pressed Cohen over his apparent failure to list contracts with foreign companies that paid him for access to the Trump administration, including Novartis, which paid Cohen $1.2 million to act as a consultant on the Trump administration, as well as $150,000 from South Korea's Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) and a payment from Kazakhstan BTA bank.
- Meadows: "I'm going to back to the question I asked before with regards to your false statement that you submitted to Congress. On here it was very clear that it asks for contracts with foreign entities over the last two years. Have you had any foreign contracts with foreign entities whether it's Novartis or the Korean Airline or Kazakhstan BTA bank? Your testimony earlier said that you had contracts with them. In fact, you went into detail."
- Cohen: "They are not government agencies, they are privately and publicly traded companies."
- Meadows: "Did you have foreign contracts over the last two years?"
- Cohen: "Foreign contracts?"
- Meadows: "Contracts with foreign entities?"
- Cohen: "Yes."
Shortly after the exchange, Meadows tweeted: "I just entered a referral for criminal investigation of Michael Cohen, who violated the Foreign Agents Registration Act by illegally lobbying on behalf of foreign entities without registering," adding "Cohen talks about "blind loyalty." His real blind loyalty? It's to the almighty dollar."
Dem chairman closes Cohen hearing with emotional speech - House Oversight and Reform Committee Chairman Elijah Cummings (D-Md.) closed Wednesday's hearing with former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen with an impassioned plea for lawmakers to “get back to normal” and to consider the democracy they are leaving future generations. “I don’t know why this is happening for you, but it is my hope that a small part of it is for our country to be better,” Cummings told Cohen at the conclusion of roughly seven hours of testimony. “The president called you a rat,” Cummings added. “We’re better than that. We really are. I’m hoping that all of us can get back to his democracy that we want and that we should be passing on to our children so that they can do better than what we did.” Cohen become visibly emotional as Cummings acknowledged the difficulty of the circumstances for the president's longtime attorney. “Hopefully this portion of your destiny will lead to a better Michel Cohen, a better Donald Trump, a better United States of America, and a better world,” Cummings said as Cohen reached for a drink of water. The chairman grew more animated as he spoke, shouting into the microphone as he called on lawmakers to reflect on how they're protecting democracy. He took a swipe at Republicans, who earlier in the day suggested that holding a hearing with Cohen was an indication that Democrats were out to get the president. Cummings then gaveled the hearing to a close after roughly seven hours of testimony from Cohen.
Trump's financials are out - Michael Cohen, Trump's former attorney, is currently testifying in front of Congress. As part of his testimony, Cohen has submitted documents (which he says were originally given to Deutsche Bank) outlining what was once beyond the reach of the public eye: the Donald's net worth. Specifically, for the financial years ending in 2011, 2012 and 2013. So here they are for your viewing pleasure, starting with 2011: First, assuming the accuracy of these financial statements, Trump is beyond doubt a billionaire. A cynic may observe that he's asset rich and cash poor, but which minted real estate mogul (or member of the landed gentry) isn't?Second, nearly all of the increase in Trump's net worth between 2012 and 2013 can be attributed to one new entry in 2013's assets: brand value. This $4bn asset propelled the 90 per cent increase in his net worth over the year. Without it, Trump's wealth would have stayed pretty much flat. We'd love to see how Trump's auditors arrived at this brand value number, and, perhaps more importantly, how it's tested for impairment. But details are not forthcoming. However we do note that while 2011 and 2012's balance sheet include the line “See Independent Accountants' Compilation Report”, 2013's doesn't.
The Cohen of Silence Breaks: What to Make of Wednesday’s Testimony - The first thing to remember about Michael Cohen’s lengthy appearance on Wednesday, Feb. 27, before the House Committee on Oversight and Reform is that it was presumably a pale shadow of the full testimony Cohen could offer. The president’s former lawyer spent Tuesday testifying behind closed doors at the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence; Sen. Susan Collins told reporters that he seemed like “a very different guy” compared to his previous appearance before the panel. And he will spend the day on Thursday at a closed hearing of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. What became public on Wednesday was just the slice of Cohen’s story that is not currently at issue in Robert Mueller’s investigation of L’Affaire Russe, the subject of separate investigation in the Southern District of New York, or of concern to the intelligence committees.In other words, Cohen’s testimony, both written and live, is not the whole story. It may well not be the most important parts of his story. It is only the most currently presentable parts of Cohen’s story. The second notable feature of the hearing was that it was really two hearings. One was a sometimes frustrating, sometimes incompetent, sometimes serious effort to learn what the committee could about the conduct of the man who currently serves as president of the United States. The other hearing alternated in five-minute increments with the first but was a different exercise entirely. It involved a confrontation between a man who had devoted a decade of his life to making Trump’s legal, ethical and personal problems go away—a man who once reveled in being dubbed Trump’s “fixer”—yet who now had become one of those problems, and was being confronted by a phalanx of 17 applicants for his old role. Indeed, with the notable exception of Rep. Justin Amash, who engaged in a serious colloquy with Cohen about how Trump communicates indirect orders to his subordinates, none of the Republican members of the committee showed any serious interest in developing the factual record about the president’s conduct: not on matters related to L’Affaire Russe, not on payments to paramours, not on other corruption matters. They showed up, rather, as fixers—very much as Cohen himself would only recently have done. They were there merely to discredit the witness. And in this project they confronted a problem: It is actually hard to brand someone as a liar when he walks in, having recently pleaded guilty to any number of lies, and brands himself as a teller of untruths. There’s not much you can say about such a person that he hasn’t just said about himself.
Michael Cohen: Lots of Wind, No Damage - This morning was the first hearing of the House Oversight Committee since the Democratic Party won back the House of Representatives in the midterms. The star of the hearing of course was Michael Cohen, employed as Trump’s personal lawyer for a decade until last year. During the past, consequential nine months, Cohen pleaded guilty and was convicted of campaign finance violations, fraud, and lying to Congress while testifying in 2017. He’s scheduled to report to prison in May for a three-year sentence. The purpose of his re-testifying today was to speak about his relationship with Trump. Although he previously said that he’d “rather jump out of a building” than turn on his former boss, this morning he did just that. It was only seconds before fireworks went off between committee members. Congressman Mark Meadows (R-NC) immediately asked to postpone the hearing, accusing Cohen of intentionally withholding his written testimony so that Republicans would not have enough time to prepare questions. According to Meadows, this was part of a pattern of behavior from Cohen, showing disdain for the congressional body. The motion was tabled by a party-line vote, and a partisan taint would define the rest of the hearing. In his opening statement, Cummings said it was a legitimate to ask whether Cohen’s testimony could be trusted, since he’s admitted to lying in the past to protect the president. But it was the committee’s job to listen to Cohen and find the truth. “The American people can judge his credibility on their own,” Cummings said. The ranking member, Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), let loose a barrage against Cohen. Jordan, a founding member of the House Freedom Caucus and a conservative attack dog, recently lost a vote for House Minority Leader. “Certainly it’s the first time a convicted perjurer has been brought back to be a star witness,” he said. According to Jordan, the whole proceeding was influenced by billionaire Tom Steyer’s campaign to impeach the president. “He is a racist. He is a conman. He is a cheat,” Cohen said of Trump. While his words were blistering, the rest of Cohen’s testimony fell short of what Democrats were hoping for.
Michael Cohen has blown a lot of political smoke but no impeachable fire - Henry Olsen, WaPo - Former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen’s testimony before the House Oversight Committee on Wednesday was explosive and raw. But the verdict is nonetheless clear: lots of political smoke, little impeachable fire. Cohen’s allegations boil down to three points: 1. President Trump is a dishonest man, a pathological liar and a racist. 2. He directly used personal, corporate and foundation funds to silence porn stars; to inflate his personal assets to obtain bank financing; and to buy a painting of himself. 3. He knew in advance that WikiLeaks would release the hacked Clinton campaign emails and continued to negotiate for a project in Moscow during the presidential campaign while saying he wasn’t. The first set of allegations adds salacious, but unverifiable, logs to the fire that has burned throughout Trump’s political career. None of this will matter to either Trump’s supporters or those in the middle who have long since decided that other matters, such as policy and his acts in office, are more important. Every month it seems we have a new personal revelation about Trump’s character and it doesn’t move the polls. As a political matter, this is, as lawyers in depositions say, “asked and answered.” The second set of allegations is more troubling and could set the president up for legal trouble. While the specific campaign-finance violations Cohen pleaded guilty to have proved difficult to sustain when pursued (see the John Edwards case, which resulted in a hung jury when Edwards faced basically the same charge that Cohen levies on Trump), that doesn’t mean charges will not be brought. Misuse of charitable funds, if that is in fact what occurred, is also a potential violation of state laws. One can easily see the Southern District of New York or the New York attorney general’s office bringing charges if investigations affirm enough of Cohen’s claim. Neither claim, however, will lead to Trump’s removal from office via impeachment. Democratic voters are eager to impeach the president, and perhaps these and other allegations will finally push House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and other House leadership to consent. But so far, clear majorities of Americans, which necessarily include millions of people who voted Democratic in the midterms, oppose impeachment. Nothing we heard Wednesday will shift those people’s minds, and as such, there is no chance Republicans in the Senate will vote to convict on any articles of impeachment based on these claims.
Michael Cohen’s Testimony Is the First Hearing in President Trump’s Impeachment - Jonathan Chait -- The persistent nagging skepticism that has surrounded President Trump’s legal travails arose again in recent days when reports claimed that Robert Mueller would soon publish his final report. If Mueller was almost done, he couldn’t have much more, and none of it would touch Trump directly. Michael Cohen’s testimony destroys that presumption completely. Trump’s former fixer alleges not only systematic criminality by his former boss, but deep culpability in the Russia scandal itself. There is no longer any serious chance that Trump will avoid impeachment proceedings. Cohen’s testimony should be seen as the first hearing. Cohen’s opening statement reviews many of Trump’s familiar degeneracies. He is casually racist and habitually criminal, gleefully refusing to pay his contractors and arranging petty scams like using his “charitable” foundation for self-enrichment. More seriously still, Cohen has evidence in the form of signed checks that Trump knowingly violated campaign finance law by reimbursing him for payments to Stormy Daniels during the campaign. Trump signed the reimbursement checks that violated campaign finance law as a sitting president. (And, by signing a Trump organization check, he also casually broke his promise not to involve himself in any business activities while in office.) But the most damning details in Cohen’s testimony concern the Russia scandal. Cohen’s evidence that Trump knew about the July 2016 meeting with Russian operatives is highly circumstantial, yet persuasive. He notes that Trump knew about everything that happened in the campaign, and describes a meeting in which Donald Jr. appeared to inform his father: Cohen is now the second member of Trump’s inner circle to publicly express complete certainty that Trump knew about the meeting. “The chance that Don Jr. did not walk these jumos up to his father’s office on the 26th floor is zero,” said Steve Bannon last year. Neither of them have anywhere close to enough evidence to prove it, of course, and this fact may never be proven.
Trump: Cohen’s Testimony Cleared Me of Russian Collusion - Donald Trump claimed vindication on Thursday, stating that Michael Cohen’s testimony to the House Oversight Committee exonerated him of collusion with Russia. Asked about Cohen’s testimony during a press conference after his North Korea talks collapsed, Trump said: “He lied a lot, but it was very interesting because he didn’t lie about one thing, he said no collusion with the Russian hoax… I was actually impressed that he didn’t say, ‘Well, I think there was collusion for this reason or that.’ He didn’t say that. He said no collusion, and I was a little impressed by that, frankly… The most important question up there was the one on collusion, and he said he saw no collusion.” In fact, Cohen said in his prepared statement: “Questions have been raised about whether I know of direct evidence that Mr. Trump or his campaign colluded with Russia. I do not. I want to be clear. But, I have my suspicions.” Cohen then related an incident in June 2016 when Don Jr. told his father, “The meeting is all set,” and Trump replied, “OK good… let me know.” Cohen said he had since “concluded that Don Jr. was referring to that June 2016 Trump Tower meeting about dirt on Hillary with the Russian representative.”
House panel seeks interview with Trump Organization exec after Cohen testimony - Democrats on the House Intelligence Committee are planning to request that Trump Organization chief financial officer Allen Weisselberg appear before the panel for questioning, an aide confirmed Thursday. "The Committee anticipates bringing in Mr. Weisselberg," the aide told The Hill. Weisselberg's attorney declined to comment. News of plans to interview the Trump Organization executive, which were first reported by The Daily Beast, come one day after President Trump's former attorney Michael Cohen repeatedly referenced Weisselberg during his public testimony on Capitol Hill. Cohen named Weisselberg, among other Trump Organization executives, as being able to corroborate his allegations about the president's private business. The executive has worked for the Trump family business for decades, first for the president's father before climbing the ladder within the organization. During his congressional hearing on Wednesday, Cohen identified Weisselberg's signature on a check the president's former lawyer received as part of a reimbursement for a hush-money payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election. And Cohen claimed that Weisselberg was aware of Trump inflating his assets to an insurance company, and that the executive knew about the family’s tax practices. House Oversight and Reform Committee Chairman Elijah Cummings (D-Md.) has also indicated that he will call Weisselberg in for questioning before his panel. Weisselberg also reportedly has an immunity deal with federal prosecutors in the U.S. attorney's office in Manhattan, which have been looking into the payment to Daniels.
Where the investigations related to President Trump stand - Special counsel Robert Mueller is looking into whether the Trump campaign coordinated with Russia and whether the president obstructed the investigation. Trump also plays a central role in a separate case in New York, where prosecutors have implicated him in a crime. They say Trump directed his personal lawyer Michael Cohen to make illegal hush-money payments to two women as a way to quash potential sex scandals during the campaign. New York prosecutors also are looking into Trump’s inaugural fund. Trump claimed Friday that Cohen shopped a book to publishers that portrayed Trump in a favorable light, vastly at odds with Cohen’s damning testimony to Congress. Cohen told a House panel Trump was a “racist,” ″con man” and liar. He testified that Trump used his inner circle to cover up politically damaging allegations about sex, and lied throughout the 2016 election campaign about his business interests in Russia. There is no smoking gun when it comes to the question of Russia collusion. But the evidence so far shows that a broad range of Trump associates had Russia-related contacts during the 2016 presidential campaign and transition period, and several lied about the communications. There is evidence that some people in Trump’s orbit were discussing a possible email dump from WikiLeaks before it occurred. American intelligence agencies and Mueller have said Russia was the source of hacked material released by the anti-secrecy group WikiLeaks during the campaign that was damaging to Democrat Hillary Clinton’s presidential effort. —WHAT ABOUT OBSTRUCTION OF JUSTICE? That is another unresolved question that Mueller is pursuing. Investigators have examined key episodes such as Trump’s firing of FBI Director James Comey and Trump’s fury over Attorney General Jeff Sessions’ recusal. Trump has repeatedly slammed the Mueller investigation as a “witch hunt” and insisted there was “NO COLLUSION” with Russia. He also says Cohen lied to get a lighter sentence in New York.
Here’s Why Donald Trump Doesn’t Want Anyone To Know His Grades Or SAT Scores - Yesterday, as part of his testimony to Congress, Michael Cohen revealed that, under the direction of President Trump, he had sent letters to Trump’s high schools, colleges and the College Board (creator of the SAT), threatening them with legal action and jail time if they ever released Trump’s academic records. Cohen provided a record of one such letter sent to the president of Fordham University, which Trump attended for two years before transferring to complete his undergraduate degree at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. Trump’s high school has confirmed receiving an identical letter, while the University of Pennsylvania and the College Board declined to comment. It’s worth mentioning that letters like this are entirely unnecessary—under FERPA, disclosing academic records without the student’s written permission is pretty much the most illegal thing you can do with those records. Still, there are a few reasons why it makes sense that Trump would have been so concerned about his transcripts and standardized test scores being released. Trump has repeatedly claimed (and allowed media outlets to report on his behalf) that he graduated ‘first in his class’ from the Wharton School at Penn. In fact, he wasn’t close—Trump graduated without honors. Some schools base honors on GPA percentile, but Wharton bases them simply on GPA, which means that in order to graduate without honors, his GPA had to have been less than a 3.40—or else that he was sanctioned for academic integrity or student conduct violations. What’s interesting about this is that it’s not the GPA itself, but the lie, that Trump may have been concerned about. Trump’s college GPA wasn’t a big deal until he made it a big deal by speculating about Obama’s GPA, lying about his own records and threatening his schools if they released them.
How CNN Led Facebook To Censor Pages Of Russia-Backed Video Company And Manufactured News Story- --CNN went in search for a story about a Russian-funded digital media project that produces viral videos aimed at undermining American democracy. When CNN journalists could not find what they were looking for, they effectively manufactured the news by giving Facebook a pretext for removing the project’s pages used to share videos. Now, the cable news network had their story. Four CNN journalists worked on the report, “Russia is backing a viral video company aimed at American millennials.” It appeared online late in the day on February 15 and broke the news that Maffick Media had their Facebook pages for three video channels suspended. Maffick also produces In The Now, which Facebook took down as well. Facebook never required pages to include information about their parent companies nor has the social media company ever labeled state-sponsored media, which CNN acknowledged. Yet, since the project involves funding from Russian state media, CNN believed Facebook may want to require the pages to disclose such details.CNN contacted Facebook on February 13, and Facebook informed CNN they were “contemplating doing something about labeling state-funded media,” according to Donie O’Sullivan, a CNN reporter who worked on the story. The media organization held their story until Facebook took action. As O’Sullivan said during an interview on CNN, “The content was pretty critical of the U.S government, of U.S mainstream media, but nothing that would be totally out of the ordinary necessarily.” Videos made a “lot of legitimate arguments,” and they “weren’t necessarily really hiding their Russian ties.”
Is The FTC Planning To Break Up Big Tech? - President Trump has made no secret of the fact that he believes tech behemoths like Amazon are anti-competitive, job-killing monstrosities that should be broken up or at least see their influence curbed by regulators. And now, after stocking the FTC with critics of big tech, it appears the committee might be taking the first steps toward breaking up the big tech firms - or at least ensuring that they can't get any bigger. With the committee still prepping what will reportedly be a "record breaking fine" over Facebook's failure to uphold a guarantee to safeguard user data, Bureau of Competition Director Bruce Hoffman and FTC Chairman Joe Simons announced the formation of a new task force that will scrutinize mergers in the tech space - and even review consummated deals. The Federal Trade Commission’s Bureau of Competition announced the creation of a task force dedicated to monitoring competition in U.S. technology markets, investigating any potential anticompetitive conduct in those markets, and taking enforcement actions when warranted. To create the Technology Task Force, the Bureau of Competition will draw upon existing staff and expertise to enhance the Bureau’s focus on technology-related sectors of the economy, including markets in which online platforms compete. The creation of this task force is modeled on the FTC’s successful Merger Litigation Task Force, launched in 2002 by then-Bureau of Competition Director Joe Simons. Given the ever-expanding role of technology in the lives of Americans, the committee said it would make sense to ensure any future tie-ups "ensure consumers benefit from free and fair competition." "The role of technology in the economy and in our lives grows more important every day," said FTC Chairman Joe Simons. "As I’ve noted in the past, it makes sense for us to closely examine technology markets to ensure consumers benefit from free and fair competition. Our ongoing Hearings on Competition and Consumer Protection in the 21st Century are a crucial step to deepen our understanding of these markets and potential competitive issues. The Technology Task Force is the next step in that effort."
Federal Prosecutors Broke Law in Jeffrey Epstein Case, Judge Rules - Federal prosecutors, under former Miami U.S. Attorney Alex Acosta, broke the law when they concealed a plea agreement from more than 30 underage victims who had been sexually abused by wealthy New York hedge fund manager Jeffrey Epstein, a federal judge ruled Thursday. While the decision marks a victory for crime victims, the federal judge, Kenneth A. Marra, stopped short of overturning Epstein’s plea deal, or issuing an order resolving the case. He instead gave federal prosecutors 15 days to confer with Epstein’s victims and their attorneys to come up with a settlement. The victims did not seek money or damages as part of the suit.It’s not clear whether the victims, now in their late 20s and early 30s, can, as part of the settlement, demand that the government prosecute Epstein. But others are calling on the Justice Department to take a new look at the case in the wake of the judge’s ruling.“As a legal matter, the non-prosecution agreement entered into by the U.S. Attorney’s Office in the Southern District of Florida does not bind other U.S. Attorneys in other districts. They are free, if they conclude it is appropriate to do so, to bring criminal actions against Mr. Epstein and his co-conspirators,’’ said lawyer David Boies, representing two of Epstein’s victims who claim they were trafficked by Epstein in New York and other areas of the country. Earlier this month, the Department of Justice announced it was opening a probe of the case in response to calls from three dozen members of Congress. Nebraska Sen. Ben Sasse, the Republican chairman of the Senate Judiciary Oversight Subcommittee, on Thursday asked the DOJ to re-open Epstein’s plea deal. “The fact that it’s taken this long to get this far is heartbreaking and infuriating,’’ said Sasse. “The Department of Justice should use this opportunity to reopen its non-prosecution agreement so that Epstein and anyone else who abused these children are held accountable.”
Second Boston billionaire ensnared in South Florida prostitution ring - Another Boston billionaire is among the hundreds of alleged johns facing charges in a massive prostitution and human trafficking sting operation in South Florida.John Childs, 77, the founder of Boston-based private equity firm J.W. Childs Associates, is among one of 165 individuals wanted on a solicitation of prostitution charge by Florida’s Vero Beach police. Childs, a prominent Republican donor, lives seasonally in Indian River, Fla. and part-time in Boston, according to local newspaper TCPalm.com. Campaign finance records obtained by the paper found that Childs donated about $4.3 million to several Republican politicians and groups last cycle — including $250,000 for America First Action, a super-PAC that supports President Donald Trump. “I have received no contact by the police department about this charge,” Childs told Bloomberg on Friday. “The accusation of solicitation of prostitution is totally false. I have retained a lawyer.” Attempts by the Herald to reach Childs were unsuccessful. Vero Beach police released the names of the 165 individuals prior to Jupiter, Fla. police’s bombshell press conference that New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft was linked to another prostitution sting in a different county.A coalition of law enforcement agencies including various local police and sheriff departments, state investigators and U.S. Department of Homeland Security, launched a monthslong probe into the international prostitution and human trafficking operations at South Florida massage parlors.It was at the Orchids of Asia Day Spa — adjacent to a grocery store and Outback Steakhouse in a strip mall — that Jupiter police say Kraft was caught on covert cameras receiving alleged acts. Florida statutes describe a first offense of soliciting a prostitute as a second-degree misdemeanor punishable by as many as 60 days in jail and a fine. According to NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo, Kraft is expected to be issued a warrant for his arrest on Monday.
Skilling Released from Prison After A Decade of Doing Time : A Reminder of a Not So Distant Past, When the Rule of Law Applied to Corporate CEOs - Jerri-lynn Scofield - On Friday, the Grey Lady reported: Jeffrey Skilling, Former Enron Chief, Released After 12 Years in Prison: Jeffrey K. Skilling, the former chief executive of Enron whose lies contributed to the sudden collapse of the energy company in one of the country’s most high-profile cases of corporate fraud, was released from federal custody on Thursday after serving more than 12 years in prison, the federal authorities said. Younger readers may be amazed to hear about a time not so very long ago and in a place much nearer than a galaxy far, far away, where the US Department of Justice (DoJ) – now openly derided by practicing lawyers as the Department of Jokes – prosecuted and jailed corporate officers who allowed criminal activity to occur on their watch. Not only Skilling, but Enron’s founder and chairman, Kenneth Lay, and its CFO, Andrew Fastow, were sentenced to prison terms — although Lay died before he was able to serve his time. And it wasn’t only Enron executives, who presided over what was until that time the largest corporate bankruptcy, that were prosecuted and did time. Adelphia officers were convicted and sent to jail, Likewise, for their WorldCom counterparts. In 2002, in response to these scandals, the US adopted the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, which defined new and expanded responsibilities for the boards and management of US public companies, as well as public accounting firms. Congress passed legislation, and president George W. Bush signed that legislation into law. Then in 2009, things shifted. Eric Holder became attorney general, and instituted a seminal shift in DoJ enforcement policy – the so-called “Holder Doctrine.” As I summarized in this September 2016 post, Law Enforcement Losing War on White Collar Crime, which described the policy undertaken during the Holder’s tenure: During that time, the DoJ instead followed the “Holder doctrine” and eschewed criminal charges against companies and executives, instead opting for negotiated settlements (often imposing de minimis, slap-on-the wrist penalties that were significantly undersized compared to the magnitude of damage done, especially by TBTF banks and other financial predators, to name just a few). This was tweaked by then-Deputy Attorney Sally Yates. Yet the Yates memo failed to lead to any upsurge in corporate prosecutions, as I discussed further in The Obamamometer’s Toxic Legacy: The Rule of Lawlessness. These guidelines were then further weakened in 2018 by the Trump administration.
Elon Musk Faces U.S. Contempt Claim for Violating SEC Accord - Elon Musk is facing a new round of regulatory trouble for tweets about Tesla Inc., raising fresh concerns about the chief executive officer’s ability to keep his impulses in check and responsibly run a public company. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday asked a judge to hold Musk in contempt for violating a settlement that required him to get Tesla’s approval before communicating material information to investors. He breached that deal with a Feb. 19 tweet that said Tesla would make about half a million cars in 2019, the agency claims. The CEO posted a few hours later that deliveries would only reach about 400,000. The SEC’s move, which sent Tesla shares down about 2.5 percent shortly after the start of regular trading Tuesday, puts Musk in fresh legal peril less than five months after he settled claims he misled investors with tweets about taking the electric-car maker private. He could face a variety of penalties, with the stiffest being that he’ll be barred from running Tesla or any other public company for a period of time, said Charles Elson, director of the John L. Weinberg Center for Corporate Governance at the University of Delaware. “Having your CEO in contempt of an SEC action is a pretty bad thing,” Elson said in a phone interview. “They settled with him and within a few months he’s back to doing similar things. It’s unbelievable.”
House banking panel to examine Wells Fargo, CFPB in March — The House Financial Services Committee will hold eight hearings in March to examine issues ranging from oversight of Wells Fargo to the allocation of disaster recovery funds, Chairwoman Maxine Waters, D-Calif., announced Monday. The full committee will meet March 7 to conduct a semiannual review of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. On March 12, the committee will hold a hearing called Holding Megabanks Accountable: An Examination of Wells Fargo’s Pattern of Consumer Abuses. This hearing will likely cover many of the numerous scandals Wells Fargo has found itself embroiled in the past two years, including the creation of 3.5 million fake accounts and the company’s own admission that it had mistakenly foreclosed on more than 500 homes. Waters will also lead a hearing March 13 on the reauthorization of the National Flood Insurance Program, which Congress has had to renew at least eight times since September 2017. Though lawmakers on both sides of the aisle generally agree that the program needs to be reformed, legislative efforts have stalled. The subcommittee on investor protection, entrepreneurship and capital markets will meet twice next month, once to examine the Securities and Exchange Commission’s best-interest rule and once to examine proposals to improve environmental, social and governance disclosures. Meanwhile, the subcommittee on national security, international development and monetary policy will hold a hearing March 13 to promote corporate transparency and examine legislative proposals to detect and deter financial crimes. American Banker reported in November that a bipartisan group of senators was discussing a possible legislative package to reform anti-money-laundering rules and the Bank Secrecy Act, changes that the banking industry supports. The subcommittee on oversight and investigations will also meet on March 26 for a hearing titled The Administration of Disaster Recovery Funds in the Wake of Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria.
Memo to Maxine Waters: Wells Fargo Is Far from the Biggest Problem on Wall Street - Pam Martens - Yesterday, Congresswoman Maxine Waters of California, the Chair of the House Financial Services Committee, released the titles of the hearings she plans to hold during the month of March. Of the hearings held by this Committee in February, none addressed the systemic risk to the U.S. economy from the interconnected mega banks on Wall Street. According to the hearing list released yesterday for the month of March, systemic risks at the mega banks has again gone missing. The only mega bank to be grilled in March will be Wells Fargo, and that will focus on its “pattern of consumer abuses.” This lack of attention to the most dangerous, interconnected mega banks on Wall Street – JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley – by the newly installed Democratic Chair of the House Financial Services Committee does not bode well for the Democrats – or for the financial health of the country. It was just a decade ago that those same banks and that same systemic risk created the largest economic crash in the United States since the Great Depression. And the same fault lines of that era are still with us today. Waters’ failure to put systemic risk at the top of her priority list will raise suspicions among the electorate. According to a report by CNBC in late January, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon had met separately with Waters shortly after she became the Chair of this powerful oversight Committee. The Wall Street Journal further reported that Waters had planned to call the CEOs of the six largest Wall Street banks to testify at a hearing in March or April. That would have included Dimon and Solomon, who are none too eager to appear before a Congressional Committee. Maybe that hearing will still move forward in April. But here is what is fishy about highlighting the “pattern of consumer abuses” by Wells Fargo: That bank is not a felon. JPMorgan Chase pleaded guilty to two criminal felony counts in 2014 for its role in the Bernie Madoff matter and pleaded guilty again the very next year to one count for its role in rigging foreign currency markets. Citigroup is also a felon, having pleaded guilty to one count in the same foreign currency rigging matter as JPMorgan Chase. Both banks have a serial pattern of abuse. The serial crime spree at JPMorgan Chase became so pronounced that two trial lawyers, Helen Davis Chaitman and Lance Gotthoffer, published a breathtaking book on the matter in 2016, noting the similarities to the Gambino crime family. (See here for Citigroup’s rap sheet.)
Deregulating Banks Fueled Speculation, Not Productive Investment --In academic and policy circles there is deep mistrust of public sector involvement in credit allocation, much more than in the credit allocation decisions made by commercial banks. This mistrust continues, despite the financial crisis of 2007–08 demonstrating the huge dangers of a deregulated credit market. Whilst, post-crisis, financial regulators have begun to develop policies aimed at reducing lending in certain sectors, calls for proactively directing finance to support desirable sectors of the economy have largely been ignored.In a new UCL Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose (IIPP) working paper, co-authored with Dutch economists Dirk Bezemer and Lu Zhang and Frank van Lerven, we examine the theoretical, historical and empirical evidence around credit policy and its effects on the allocation of credit. Our motivation, aside from the crisis, is the remarkable ‘debt shift’ in advanced economies over the past 40 years which has seen banks move away from their primary textbook role of lending to non-financial firms to support productive investment. Whilst total bank credit has roughly doubled relative to GDP since the early 1970s in advanced economies, the share of credit supporting firms has actually fallen, from 60% to 40%. The vast expansion in lending has been mainly to support households to buy houses and, to a lesser extent, consumer goods and the purchase of financial assets. Mortgage and other asset-market lending typically does not generate income streams sufficient to finance the growth of debt. Instead, the empirical evidence suggests that after a certain point relative to GDP, increases in mortgage debt typically slows growth and increase financial instability as asset prices rise faster than incomes. These new empirical findings support a much older body of theory that argues that credit markets, left to their own devices, will not optimise the allocation of resources. Instead, following Joseph Schumpeter’s, Keynes’ and Hyman Minsky’s arguments, they will tend to shift financial resources away from real-sector investment and innovation and towards asset markets and speculation; away from equitable income growth and towards capital gains that polarises wealth and income; and away from a robust, stable growth path and towards fragile boom-busts cycles with frequent crises.
February 2019: Unofficial Problem Bank list decreased to 76 Institutions -- Note: Surferdude808 compiles an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources. Here is the unofficial problem bank list for February 2019. Here are the monthly changes and a few comments from surferdude808: Update on the Unofficial Problem Bank List for February 2019. During the month, the list decreased by a net of two institutions to 76 banks after three removals and one addition. Aggregate assets dropped to $52.8 billion from $55.2 billion at month earlier, with $1.9 billion of the $2.4 billion decline due to the release of updated financials. A year ago, the list held 101 institutions with assets of $20.5 billion. Removals included Beach Community Bank, Fort Walton Beach, FL ($468 million) because of action termination; Gunnison Valley Bank, Gunnison, UT ($71 million) because of an unassisted merger; and Maryland Financial Bank, Towson, MD ($42 million) because of voluntary liquidation. Added this month was Fort Gibson State Bank, Fort Gibson, OK ($61 million) because the FDIC issued it a Prompt Corrective Action order on January 9, 2019. Strange, the FDIC has yet to provide public notice of a safety & soundness consent order against this bank. On February 21, 2019 the FDIC released industry results for the fourth quarter of 2018. In that release, the FDIC disclosed that the Official Problem Bank List includes 60 institutions with assets of $48.5 billion, down from 71 institutions with assets of $53.3 billion in the third quarter of 2018.
House banking panel bemoans credit bureaus' 'oligopoly' — Nearly two years after the massive Equifax data breach, lawmakers made clear their criticism of the credit bureau industry has not abated. But at a hearing Tuesday where House members grilled CEOs of the largest bureaus and discussed possible reforms, lawmakers from both parties went beyond concerns about the companies' security protocols, suggesting that root of their problems is the sector's dominance by just three giant firms. "What I see here is an oligopoly,” said Rep. Patrick McHenry, R-N.C., the ranking member of the House Financial Services Committee, speaking to a witness panel including the chiefs of Equifax, Experian and TransUnion. Both McHenry and Chairwoman Maxine Waters, D-Calif., lamented the lack of competition in the credit reporting industry, leaving consumers with limited options. “If a consumer is dissatisfied with one credit bureau, they can’t take their business to a competitor. To credit reporting bureaus, consumers aren’t consumers,” said Waters. “They are commodities. This commodification of consumers and their personal data is the core reason why our nation’s consumer credit reporting system is broken.” McHenry noted that none of the witnesses — Mark Begor of Equifax, Craig Boundy of Experian North America and James Peck of TransUnion — "discussed in your testimony increased competition in the industry.” “You don’t even reference competition with one another," he said. The Equifax breach, which came to light in September 2017 but began the previous March, amplified criticism of the bureaus that had already been building before roughly 148 million consumers had their information compromise. Congress has been unable to mount any kind of legislative response since the breach. But on the eve of Tuesday's hearing, the committee's Democratic majority released a bill proposing significant reforms for the credit reporting sector and legislation to protect credit files of government workers affected by the recent shutdown. Despite the constant criticism of the bureaus, the three CEOs defended their corporate culture. They argued that the different technologies and products offered to consumers by the three credit reporting agencies makes them competitive.
Bills to reform credit bureaus unveiled on eve of hearing — Ahead of a hearing with the chief executives of the three major credit reporting agencies, House Financial Services Committee leadership has released two bills aimed at reforming the bureaus and protecting credit scores for government employees affected by the shutdown. The heads of Equifax, Experian and TransUnion will testify before the panel Tuesday, about a year and a half after the Equifax data breach. Lawmakers are expected to discuss a sweeping reform proposal for the credit bureaus, as well as legislation to keep negative financial information caused by the shutdown from hurting government workers' credit profiles. The first bill, which was posted on the committee's website, includes roughly 200 pages of reforms. The Comprehensive Consumer Credit Reporting Reform Act of 2019, sponsored by House Financial Services Committee Chair Maxine Waters, would expand access to free consumer reports and credit scores, and reform the dispute process to shift the burden from consumers to the credit bureaus and furnishers. The bill would also restrict the use of credit checks for employment purposes, and give the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau explicit authority to monitor the development of credit scoring models. But parts of the legislation will likely face pushback from the credit bureaus, analysts say. “We believe the biggest takeaway is that some of the reforms [Waters] is pushing could make credit reports less informative and used less frequently,” . “This is a double attack on the business model and goes beyond credit monitoring and other changes that the 115th Congress discussed in response to the Equifax breach. She also restricts the business of providing credit monitoring services to consumers.” Based on prepared remarks to the committee, the CEOs of the credit bureaus are expected to defend the credit reporting industry and the Fair Credit Reporting Act, which Waters’ legislation seeks to amend.
In Stunning Interview, Bill Gross Reveals Asperger's Diagnosis, Endorses MMT And Praises Ocasio-Cortez - It has been nearly a month since Bill Gross announced his plans to retire from the asset-management industry. But after what appeared to be an exit interview of sorts where Gross discussed the legacy of QE, whether the Fed "got in his way", and the limitations of the "unconstrained" bond fund model, the legendary bond investor - who built Pimco into one of the largest money managers in the world - Gross sat down for a 90-minute conversation with Bloomberg, ostensibly to commemorate his final day in the office before beginning his "next chapter". Describing that conversation as illuminating would be an understatement. During a wide-ranging discussion, Gross offered a wildly different outlook on monetary policy, the deficit and the reasons behind his successes - and failures - as an investor and fund manger (remember, Gross was infamously ousted from Pimco back in 2014 after clashing with other managers, including his former right-hand man Mohamed El-Erian). And - oh yeah- he revealed that he had been diagnosed with Aspergers, a form of autism, as an adult, a condition that, Gross said, may have exacerbated many of his interpersonal conflicts (not only at Pimco, but also in his marriage, which recently ended in a notoriously acrimonious tabloid divorce). In another highlight from the interview, Gross, a longtime QE critic, sounded - as BBG described it - like a "near-convert to Modern Monetary Theory". Speaking for the first time on record about his increasingly liberal politics, the one-time deficit hawk said he wouldn't see a problem with the federal government pushing the deficit out to $2 trillion, if the Fed would commit to a Japanese-style open-ended program of deficit monetization. He also expressed admiration for "Democratic Socialist" Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and even endorsed her plans for a 70% marginal tax rate on incomes over $10 million (though Gross said, if he had his druthers, the top rate wouldn't be quite so high). In a sound bite that was more reminiscent of Bernie Sanders than Benjamin Graham, and directly contradicted Donald Trump's vow that the US would never become a socialist country, Gross said he wouldn't be surprised if a socialist was elected to the highest office in the land in the not-too-distant future. When it comes to how his diagnosis impacted his investing decisions, Gross credited it for helping him stay focused on investing, even when personal issues got in the way. Here's a breakdown of the interview's most stunning claims, courtesy of BBG:
'Father Of Reaganonomics' Warns Get Out Of The Market... And Put Your Money In Cash - “We need to wake up and smell the roses here..."That's the ominous-sounding warning from David Stockman, the so-called “Father of Reaganomics,” as he told Fox Business’s Neil Cavuto this week that investors ought to get out of the market and retreat to the presumed safety of Treasury bills and cold, hard cash. "We’re in year 10 of the longest business expansion in history. We’re increasing the deficit at the very wrong time. They say it’s $900 billion this year it’ll be $1.2 trillion of borrowing at the same time that the Fed is beginning to shrink its balance sheet, which means they’ll be dumping bonds into the market,” he said. As MarketWatch's Mark Decambre notes, here’s an exchange between Cavuto and Stockman during the nearly 8-minute segment, in which the businessman cautioned that the end of easy-money policies by the Federal Reserve would ultimately augur ill for a country hopped up on debt and boasting a growing trillion-dollar deficit:
- Cavuto: When is that day of reckoning? I’d like to know
- Stockman: I think we’re here. I think we’re here because the Fed stopped buying bonds two years ago.
- Cavuto: What would you invest in?
- Stockman: I think you get out of the market. The bond market, the stock market, put your money in cash, put your money in Treasury bills, wait for the collapse to come because it’s going to happen
Stockman argues that easy-money days cannot last and that has ramifications for all, arguing that the Fed must normalize its policy, at some point:“My point is, it’s finally catching up with us. We’ve gotten by with this for 30 years ‘cause the Fed has been monetizing the debt — buying bonds hand over fist. When Greenspan arrived, the balance sheet of the Fed was $200 billion; at the peak it was $4.5 trillion,” he told Cavuto, referring to former Fed boss Alan Greenspan. Full interview below:
Insiders Just Sold The Most Stock In A Decade - Just days after Warren Buffett lamented in his latest annual letter that prices for businesses possessing decent long-term prospects are "sky high", an insider transaction-based model constructed by University of Michigan finance professor Nejat Seyhun predicts that the S&P 500 will be 3.9% lower in one year as a result of a recent surge in insider selling. Seyhun, one of academia's "leading experts" on insider transactions, and his trading model were profiled in a recent Barron's article. Barron's had previously covered his work back in May 2017. At the time Seyhun's model was bullish and the S&P has, since then, risen by more than 20%. His model also gave the market "the benefit of the doubt" back in October, during a correction. Since then, the market is about 1% higher. What is more notable, is that Seyhun's model has been found to be statistically significant by peer reviewed research. He claims that insider buying and selling data, when researched properly, "does a better job predicting year-ahead returns than almost all of the better-known indicators that are popular on Wall Street." His model states that only some of those who are considered insiders are worth following. Specifically, he pays attention to the buying and selling of corporate officers and directors and overlooks transactions by a company's largest shareholders. Obviously, insiders and directors have more insight as to the health and sentiment of a company than "outsiders" like large shareholders. This can sometimes be a difficult way to perform analysis as, based simply on a size basis, large shareholders transact far more stock than insiders, which can be difficult to ignore. According to the model, insiders - those who by definition have the most insight into the future performance of their own stocks - sold more of their company's stock in the first half of February relative to buying, than they have in a decade. Five of every six companies for which there were recent insider transactions have experienced net selling.
When Everyone Else Was Liquidating Stocks, The World's Biggest Wealth Fund Was Buying It All - When most hedge funds were facing a surge in redemption requests at the end of 2018, creating a feedback loop of lower prices, liquidation selling, and even more redemption requests, which culminated with the S&P briefly sliding into a bear market on Dec 24, one fund was quietly buying. At the end of 2018, when stocks suffered one of the biggest drops in years, Norway’s $1 trillion sovereign wealth fund - the world's biggest - was methodically buying what others were forcibly selling. Despite suffering a 6.1% drop in 2018, its first loss since 2011, the fund did what it does best, and bought some $22 billion in stocks, a "significant" buying spree which continued at the start of this year "to take advantage of a market rout" as it builds its global holdings."2018 was a year of contrasting growth expectations and apprehensions about effects of increased trade barriers,” said Yngve Slyngstad, the fund’s CEO. “Concern about economic growth mounted in the fourth quarter, inciting a further decline in equity prices, including in the U.S."The Oslo-based fund, which is the world's single biggest investor holding a whopping 1.4% of all global stocks, remains largely at the mercy of markets when stocks tumble, and as such during sharp corrections it has few choice but to keep buying, although it has some leeway to stray from the indexes it follows. The fund has traditionally loaded up on stocks during selloffs. Not only that, but the fund is now also in the process of raising the share of stocks in its portfolio to 70% froim 66.3% at the end of 2018, to improve returns after struggling through years of rock-bottom rates. As a result, the fund bought a “significant” amount of equities in January, Slyngstad said a press conference in Oslo, bringing the fund close to its 70% target. This means that, as Bloomberg calculates, the recent stock buying raid added roughly 3% to its equity portfolio. In terms of specific purchases, the fund’s biggest equity investments in 2018 were the big three: Microsoft, Apple and Alphabet, while its largest bond holdings were U.S., Japanese and German government bonds. Judging by the continued appreciation in both stocks and bonds in 2019, the fund likely continued this trend.
There’s a new financial transaction tax proposal in town. Here’s why that’s good news. Jared Bernstein - The 2017 Trump tax cut committed at least two fiscal sins. By delivering most of its cuts to those at the top of the wealth scale, it worsened our already high-levels of pretax inequalities. And in so doing, it robs the Treasury of much needed revenues; based on our aging population, we’re going to need more, not less, revenues for the next few years.Now, along comes an idea that pushes back against both of these problems (and one other one!): a small tax on financial transactions (FTT). Sen. Schatz (D-HI) and Cong. DeFazio (D-OR) are planning to introduce a tax of one-tenth-of-one-percent, or 10 basis points (100 basis points, or bps, equals 1 percentage point), on securities trades, including stocks, bonds, and derivatives, one that would raise $777 billion over 10 years (0.3 percent of cumulative GDP a decade), according to CBO (by the way, 10 bps on a $1,000 trade comes to a dollar). Numerous articles have gotten into the arguments for and against an FTT. I’ve got one from a few years back that covers similar ground. My colleague Dean Baker has long argued on behalf of FTTs as has Sarah Anderson of IPS. Importantly, FTTs exist in various countries, including the UK and France, with Germany considering the tax (also, Brazil, India, South Korea, and Argentina). The UK is a particularly germane example, where an FTT has long co-existed with London’s vibrant, global financial market (though we’ll see if Brexit changes that). In fact, we have an FTT here too! The SEC funds its operating budget through a tiny FTT of 0.23 basis points on securities transactions and $0.0042 per transaction for futures trades. The pro-FTT argument focuses on the reversing the two fiscal sins noted above, along with raising the cost of high-frequency trading. In a Vox interview, Sen. Schatz was particularly motivated by this latter aspect of the tax: “High-frequency trading is a real risk to the system, and it screws regular people; that’s the main reason to do this. If in the process of solving that problem we happen to generate revenue for public services, that’s an important benefit, but that’s not the main reason to pass this into law.” Finally, there’s a certain justice in taxing the pumped-up transactions of a financial sector that not only played a key role in inflating the housing bubble that led to the Great Recession, but thanks to government bailouts, recovered from it well before the median household. In this expansion, corporate profits and the securities markets that rise and fall on such profitability have mostly boomed while workers’ wages have only recently caught a bit of a buzz. So, as my grandma used to say, “What’s not to like?”
Democrats push bill to end forced arbitration agreements — House and Senate Democrats have introduced a bill to prohibit companies from using mandatory arbitration clauses, more than a year after Congress repealed a Consumer Financial Protection Bureau rule that would have banned mandatory arbitration clauses in financial contracts. The legislation, known as the Forced Arbitration Injustice Reversal Act, is sponsored by Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., and Rep. Hank Johnson, D-Ga. It would prohibit forced arbitration clauses in consumer, employment and other types of contracts. Yet the bill would still enable employees or consumers to choose arbitration to settle a dispute if they determined it was a better option. “There is a lot of use of the word ‘rigged’ these days,” Blumenthal said in a press conference Thursday. “One of the systems that is truly rigged against consumers and workers and the American people is our current system of forced arbitration.” The legislation is supported by Consumer Reports, which said in a letter to Blumenthal that “it would reverse a spreading injustice in the marketplace.” “When forced on consumers and workers in this way, the arbitration process, designed by corporations and their lawyers, inherently tends to be one-sided, tilted to favor the corporation that has arranged for it,” Consumer Reports Senior Policy Counsel George Slover wrote in the letter. “The process is a ‘black hole,’ where the law does not apply, there is no right of appeal, and the outcome is secret. The arbitrator, chosen by the corporation, has the incentive to heed the interests of the corporation, in hopes of repeat business.”
How a payday lending industry insider tilted academic research in its favor - Shortly after the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau began preparing what would become the first significant federal regulations for the multibillion-dollar payday-lending industry, Hilary Miller went to work. Miller, an attorney who has worked closely with the industry for more than a decade, contacted a Georgia professor with a proposal: Would she like to test one of the chief criticisms of the industry, that its customers are harmed by repeatedly taking out loans? Over the next year, Miller worked closely with Jennifer Lewis Priestley, a professor of statistics and data science at Kennesaw State University, suggesting research to cite, the type of data to use and even lecturing her on proofreading. “Punctuation and capitalization are somewhat random,” he said in a February 2014 email responding to a draft of the report. “You might want to have your maiden aunt who went to high school before 1960 read this.” Priestley’s report ultimately concluded that taking out repeated loans didn’t harm borrowers, and, according to the emails, Miller discussed the results with a CFPB economist. It’s unclear how it factored into bureau decisions, but it has been repeatedly touted by payday lending supporters. Its origins shed new light on the extensive battle payday lenders have waged to influence and undermine federal regulations. In a December 2013 exchange, Miller told Priestley that he wanted to persuade her to change the way she analyzed data about borrowers’ credit scores. “I am here to serve,” Priestley responded. “I just want to make sure that what I am doing analytically is reflecting your thinking.” Her email ended with a smiley face.
Waters urges CFPB employees to blow whistle on agency leaders — House Financial Services Committee Chairwoman Maxine Waters is encouraging staff at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to report any waste, fraud or mismanagement at the agency under the Trump administration’s leadership. “As part of my duties as Chairwoman, I will also be conducting careful oversight of the agencies under the Committee’s jurisdiction, including the Consumer Bureau,” the California Democrat said in an open letter to CFPB employees Friday. “If, in the course of your work, you are a witness to waste, fraud, abuse or gross mismanagement, please do not hesitate to alert me and my staff.” She added that the Whistleblower Protection Act offers protections to employees who report violations, and that the committee under her leadership will not tolerate intimidation or retaliation against any potential witnesses at a federal agency. In the letter, Waters said she was troubled to hear reports of a significant drop in morale at the CFPB under the leadership of former acting Director Mick Mulvaney, who is currently the acting White House chief of staff. “I am writing to reassure you of the importance and value of your work, and to let you know, in no uncertain terms, that the anti-consumer actions mandated by Trump appointees will not be tolerated,” Waters said. “I will work hard to ensure that you will once again be fully empowered to perform your duties on behalf of America’s consumers.” Under Mulvaney’s leadership, CFPB-issued enforcement actions slowed down, political appointees took on senior management roles at the agency and the bureau conducted a comprehensive review of its operations. Mulvaney also launched a process to reopen the agency's payday lending rule. The proposed overhaul, unveiled recently under current Director Kathy Kraninger, would roll back tough underwriting requirements for small-dollar lenders. The agency has also mandated fewer consumer refunds from financial institutions that are subject to consent orders.
Bank regulators reject request for hearing on appraisal changes — The federal banking agencies denied several appraisal organizations’ request for a public hearing on a proposal to reduce the number of residential real estate transactions that require an appraisal. In November, the Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency proposed raising the threshold on transactions requiring a lender to arrange for an outside appraisal to $400,000 from $250,000. In releasing their proposal, the agencies claimed it would make appraisal requirements less burdensome without threatening the safety and soundness of financial institutions. But appraisers have argued that that change could result in less reliable valuations, and several industry groups including the American Society of Appraisers, the Appraisal Institute and the American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers sent a letter in December to the bank regulatory agencies requesting a hearing to understand the reason behind the proposed increase. The regulators told the appraisal groups Feb. 7 that the comment process was sufficient for members of the public to express their views on the proposed rule. “After reviewing your letter and considering the discussion in our conference call, we do not believe that holding a public hearing would elicit relevant information that could not be conveyed through the comment process,” the agencies said in their letter to the organizations. “While the agencies are, therefore, declining your request for a public hearing, we will carefully consider your written comments.” The American Society of Appraisers in particular objected to the regulators’ denial of a public hearing, citing the agencies' decision two years ago to not change the threshold after four rounds of comment periods and six rounds of public hearings.
Housing groups urge FHFA's Otting to be cautious on GSE reform — More than two dozen industry groups warned Federal Housing Finance Agency acting Director Joseph Otting not to pursue steps reducing the scope of the government-sponsored enterprises that could upset the mortgage market. The Mortgage Bankers Association and the National Association of Realtors, along with 26 other organizations, told Otting in a letter Friday that he should carefully consider any administrative actions before acting to reform Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac without Congress. Recent comments attributed to Otting signaled the administration was planning GSE reform independent of legislation. They said the FHFA should not curb the GSEs' footprint unless there is evidence that the primary mortgage market would be able to stand in for the mortgage giants. The letter comes more than a month after acting Director Joseph Otting reportedly told FHFA staff that the Trump administration is planning an announcement within weeks that could "set a direction for what the future of housing will be in the U.S. and what the FHFA’s part of that will be.” “Recognizing the vital role that the GSEs currently play, it is critical that any administrative reforms do not disturb essential functions in the secondary mortgage market,” the letter said. “Policymakers must take great care that actions to institute reforms to the GSEs are prudently developed and implemented over a sensible time horizon.” In particular, the groups recommended that the FHFA use its role as a regulator to codify and establish policies that ensure liquidity, access to affordable credit, equal secondary market access and pricing for all lenders, and a sustainable transfer of appropriate credit risk to the private sector.
GSE reform proposals have small lenders on edge — As lawmakers shop plans to overhaul the housing finance system, small lenders are still skeptical that any of the various legislative proposals will work for them. Since Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac became wards of the government, community banks and credit unions have held their own competing with bigger lenders for originations. The Federal Housing Finance Agency took steps making it easier for lenders to sell loans to the mortgage giants on a smaller scale. But those small lenders worry that plans proposed by Senate Banking Committee Chairman Mike Crapo, R-Idaho, and others to reform the government-sponsored enterprises could upset that balance, replacing a system where they can now make quick cash sales to Fannie and Freddie with something that will prove too complex. “The more complexity that you add to the system, the more you box out smaller, community banks,” said Camden Fine, the president and CEO of Calvert Advisors and the former head of the Independent Community Bankers of America. “As a general rule of thumb, the simpler the better when it comes to community banks in the secondary mortgage market.” Among the steps taken by the FHFA during the decade-plus conservatorship were lowering the pricing for lenders to sell loans directly to the GSEs through a "cash window" relative to exchanging them for securities, and ending discounts for lenders that originate large volumes of GSE-backed loans. “The FHFA has undertaken initiatives to ensure that there’s pricing parity and so larger financial institutions with more volume don’t get a pricing discount from Fannie and Freddie,” said Mitria Wilson, the senior director of advocacy and counsel at the Credit Union National Association. “That was a big problem of the past, but that’s something that’s no longer a reality.” Smaller lenders agree that releasing Fannie and Freddie from their conservatorships without a healthy level of capital, proper safeguards and other structural changes would be dangerous. But some observers representing community-based institutions view recent GSE proposals as going too far to overhaul a system that they say is working more efficiently.
Zero guarantee for GSE debt has consequences, Layton says - Removing the implicit guarantee for Freddie Mac's unsecured debt would have consequences for the housing finance system, according to CEO Don Layton. Speaking at a structured finance industry conference in Las Vegas Monday, Layton said that Freddie, along with sister company Fannie Mae, relies on unsecured debt to fund its purchases of delinquent loans out of pools of collateral for mortgage bonds. Loans that are subsequently modified stay on Freddie's balance sheet, rather than in a securitization trust. Bloomberg News The two government-sponsored enterprises could not continue to do this if it had to issue unsecured debt without the implicit guarantee; they would not be able to issue debt cheaply enough. Layton, who took the helm in 2012, after Freddie was put in conservatorship, said that the company had previously used unlimited access to unsecured borrowing inappropriately, to build an investment portfolio that was larger than the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve. At the peak, Freddie and Fannie each had some $800 billion of mortgage bonds, most of it discretionary. This investment portfolio became Freddie's primary source of profits. The GSEs "profited from money that was very cheap and it wasn't what they were there for," Layton said. In reaction, some people in policy circles are pushing to restrict the implicit guarantee to the mortgage bonds that the GSE issues. "Let's go through what that means," the CEO said. "We could use mortgages as collateral for borrowing, but it would be a lot more expensive. Could we buy back all of the loans that are 120 days delinquent? No way. This is a government-sized program." Freddie has now run down its investment portfolio to the point where it is only used to run the guarantee business. "End of story," Layton said. If the GSE loses the implicit guarantee for its unsecured debt, "things will change," he said. "People should understand that.”"
FHFA rule requires Fannie and Freddie to align cash flows on MBS — The Federal Housing Finance Agency issued a final rule Thursday requiring Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to align their cash-flow policies on current mortgage-backed securities, and eventually for a uniform security when it is implemented in June. The agency called the final rule a “major step forward,” codifying requirements that have already existed with the government-sponsored enterprises in conservatorship. The agency said the rule is essential for a seamless adoption of the "uniform mortgage-backed security" through a common securitization platform starting June 3. The FHFA has said combining the two securities operated by the government-sponsored enterprises will increase liquidity and encourage market participation, which will ultimately benefit market participants and homeowners. Comptroller of the Currency Joseph Otting “This rule demonstrates FHFA's commitment to the success of the UMBS, which will promote liquidity and efficiency in the secondary mortgage market," said FHFA Acting Director Joseph Otting. Bloomberg News “This rule demonstrates FHFA's commitment to the success of the UMBS, which will promote liquidity and efficiency in the secondary mortgage market," Joseph Otting, the FHFA's acting director, said in a statement. The final rule takes into account feedback the agency received from its notice of proposed rulemaking. The regulation incorporates adjustments meant to ensure the GSEs maintain consistent cash flows, and warns the GSEs of consequences if their cash-flow policies fall out of alignment with each other. The FHFA is also requiring the GSEs to lower the maximum mortgage note rate to qualify for a mortgage-backed security.
Farm Loan Delinquencies Highest in 9 Years as Prices Slump The nation’s farmers are struggling to pay back loans after years of low crop prices and a backlash from foreign buyers over President Donald Trump’s tariffs, with a key government program showing the highest default rate in at least nine years. Many agricultural loans come due around Jan. 1, in part to give producers enough time to sell crops and livestock and to give them more flexibility in timing interest payments for tax filing purposes. “It is beginning to become a serious situation nationwide at least in the grain crops — those that produce corn, soybeans, wheat,” said Allen Featherstone, head of the Department of Agricultural Economics at Kansas State University. While the federal government shutdown delayed reporting, January figures show an overall rise in delinquencies for those producers with direct loans from the Agriculture Department’s Farm Service Agency. Nationwide, 19.4 percent of FSA direct loans were delinquent in January, compared to 16.5 percent for the same month a year ago, said David Schemm, executive director of the Farm Service Agency in Kansas. During the past nine years, the agency’s January delinquency rate hit a high of 18.8 percent in 2011 and fell to a low of 16.1 percent when crop prices were significantly better in 2015. While those FSA direct loan delinquencies are high, the agency is a lender of last resort for riskier agricultural borrowers who don’t qualify for commercial loans. Its delinquency rates typically drop in subsequent months as more farmers pay off overdue notes and refinance debt. With today’s low crop prices, it takes high yields to mitigate some of the losses and even a normal harvest or a crop failure could devastate a farm’s bottom line. The high delinquency rates are caused by back-to-back years of low prices, with those producers who are in more financial trouble being ones who also had low yields, Featherstone said.
Mortgage delinquencies fall, while fintechs soar for other loans - Fewer mortgage borrowers are falling behind on their payments, and consumers' broader borrowing habits indicate an increased willingness to turn to nontraditional sources like fintechs for their lending needs, according to TransUnion. Serious mortgage delinquency rates are plummeting in most large housing markets as 15 of the largest 20 metropolitan statistical areas experienced double-digit declines year-over-year in the fourth quarter, according to TransUnion. On a national scale, the serious mortgage delinquency rate fell from 1.86% to 1.66% over that same period. While consumers are becoming better borrowers, mortgage originations remain relatively low. Lenders looking to attract more clients during this down time should look at overall consumer borrowing patterns, which lean in favor of fintechs. Different from the mortgage narrative, personal loan balances grew to a record high of $138 billion, and much of that can be attributed to loans originated by fintechs, said TransUnion in a report. Want to learn more about digital mortgages? At 38%, fintechs account for the largest market share of unsecured personal loans, standing ahead of banks, credit unions and traditional finance companies. While fintechs may pose a threat to other lending institutions, this clearly illustrates consumer preferences, and affirms the mortgage industry should keep its tech game strong, particularly at a time when activity is slacking. Average new mortgage account balances sank to $227,376 in the fourth quarter, down from $228,563 over the prior year. Less than 4% of originations went to subprime borrowers, with 80% of total originations going to consumers considered prime and above. Despite originations for all other risk tiers falling an average of 4.3%, subprime originations did grow 2.1% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, according to TransUnion.
Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in January - From Black Knight: Black Knight’s First Look: January’s Prepayment Rate Lowest in More Than 18 Years as Seasonal Home Sale Reductions Outweigh Rise in Refinance Incentive
• The national delinquency rate fell by 3.5 percent and is now nearly 13 percent below last year’s levelAccording to Black Knight's First Look report for January, the percent of loans delinquent decreased 3.45% in January compared to December, and decreased 12.9% year-over-year. The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased 2.2% in January and were down 22.4% over the last year. Black Knight reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) was 3.75% in January, down from 3.88% in December. The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased slightly in January to 0.51% from 0.52% in December. The number of delinquent properties, but not in foreclosure, is down 257,000 properties year-over-year, and the number of properties in the foreclosure process is down 72,000 properties year-over-year.
• Foreclosure starts rose seasonally month-over-month but were down more than 19 percent year-over-year
• The number of loans in active foreclosure continued its downward trend; there are now 265,000 active foreclosures, down 72,000 from one year ago
• Despite recent declines in interest rates, January’s prepayment rate was the lowest since November 2000
• Seasonal reductions in home sales outweighed any early, rate-driven rise in refinance incentive
Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Increased Slightly in January - Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in January was 0.70%, up slightly from 0.69% in December. Freddie's rate is down from 1.07% in January 2018.Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%. This is the lowest serious delinquency rate for Freddie Mac since December 2007. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". The increase in the delinquency rate in late 2017 and early 2018 was due to the hurricanes (These are serious delinquencies, so it took three months late to be counted). I expect the delinquency rate to decline to a cycle bottom in the 0.5% to 0.7% range - but this is close to a bottom.
Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate unchanged in January - Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate was unchanged at 0.76% in January, from 0.76% in December. The serious delinquency rate is down from 1.23% in January 2018.These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%. This matches the last two months as the lowest serious delinquency rate for Fannie Mae since August 2007.
Monthly mortgage prepayment rate takes hard fall at start of year -- Mortgage prepayment speeds fell to a 19-year trough despite recent interest rate declines, but could rise if those lower rates lead to an increase in home purchases, according to Black Knight. The monthly prepayment rate plummeted 25.2% year-over-year in January to 0.59%, the lowest this share has been since November 2000. On a monthly basis, the prepayment rate fell 10.2% from December. But housing turnover, which is currently the primary driver of mortgage prepayments, typically bottoms out in January and February, so this narrative may shift should rates hold steady during the spring home buying season, according to Black Knight. While recent rate declines did create more refinance incentive, though any growth there was outpaced by slipping home sales. That cancelled out any effect refis would normally have on prepayment speeds. Consumers continued to show improved borrowing habits in January, as the nation's overall delinquency rate dropped nearly 13% from a year ago and 3.5% from the previous month. Foreclosures are also falling off the grid. Though they did grow 8.4% from December, total foreclosure starts tanked 19.4% from the same period a year ago. The number of mortgages in active foreclosure totaled 265,000 in January, which is down by 72,000 foreclosures from January 2018.
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey --From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 5.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 22, 2019. This week’s results include an adjustment for the Washington's Birthday (Presidents’ Day) holiday.... The Refinance Index increased 5 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 6 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 3 percent higher than the same week one year ago...“Mortgage rates were little changed last week, but as we anticipated, homebuyers are responding favorably to this more stable rate environment,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Purchase applications for both conventional and government loans rose last week, with the government gain led by a 14 percent increase in applications for VA purchase loans.”Added Fratantoni, “Refinance application volume increased as well, with the index reaching its highest level in a month. Borrowers with larger loans tend to be more responsive for a given drop in rates, and competition for these loans is fierce. Therefore, it was not surprising to see the average rate for a 30-year fixed jumbo loan drop to its lowest level since January 2018.”.. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($484,350 or less) decreased to 4.65 percent from 4.66 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.42 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990. Rates would have to fall further for a significant increase in refinance activity.
HVS: Q4 2018 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates - The Census Bureau released the Residential Vacancies and Homeownership report for Q4 2018. This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to track household formation, the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates. However, there are serious questions about the accuracy of this survey. The Census Bureau is investigating the differences between the HVS, ACS and decennial Census, and analysts probably shouldn't use the HVS to estimate the excess vacant supply or household formation, or rely on the homeownership rate, except as a guide to the trend.The Red dots are the decennial Census homeownership rates for April 1st 1990, 2000 and 2010. The HVS homeownership rate increased to 64.8% in Q4, from 64.4% in Q3. I'd put more weight on the decennial Census numbers - given changing demographics, the homeownership rate has bottomed. Homeowner Vacancy RateThe HVS homeowner vacancy decreased to 1.5% in Q3. Once again - this probably shows the general trend, but I wouldn't rely on the absolute numbers. Rental Vacancy RateThe rental vacancy rate decreased to 6.6% in Q4. The quarterly HVS is the most timely survey on households, but there are many questions about the accuracy of this survey. Overall this suggests that vacancies have declined significantly, and my guess is the homeownership rate has bottomed - and that the rental vacancy rate is close to the bottom for this cycle.
FHFA House Price Index: House Prices Up 0.3% in December - The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for December. Here is the opening of the report: U.S. house prices rose 1.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018 according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI). House prices rose 5.7 percent from the fourth quarter of 2017 to the fourth quarter of 2018. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted monthly index for December was up 0.3 percent from November.The HPI is calculated using home sales price information from mortgages sold to, or guaranteed by, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.“House prices rose throughout 2018 but at a slower rate than in recent years,” said Dr. William Doerner, Supervisory Economist. “In the fourth quarter, house price appreciation hit one of the lowest levels in the past four years.” [Read more] The chart below illustrates the monthly HPI series, which is not adjusted for inflation, along with a real (inflation-adjusted) series using the Consumer Price Index: All Items Less Shelter.
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.7% year-over-year in December - S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for December ("December" is a 3 month average of October, November and December prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. From S&P: Annual Gains Fall to 4.7% to End 2018 According to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index: The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 4.7% annual gain in December, down from 5.1% in the previous month. The 10City Composite annual increase came in at 3.8%, down from 4.2% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 4.2% year-over-year gain, down from 4.6% in the previous month.Las Vegas, Phoenix and Atlanta reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In December, Las Vegas led the way with an 11.4% year-over-year price increase, followed by Phoenix with an 8.0% increase and Atlanta with a 5.9% increase. Three of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending December 2018 versus the year ending November 2018. Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month decrease of 0.1% in December. The 10-City and 20-City Composites both reported 0.2% decreases for the month. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.3% month-over-month increase in December. The 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite both posted 0.2% month-over-month increases. In December, five of 20 cities reported increases before seasonal adjustment, while 14 of 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment. The monthly number of existing single family homes sold dropped throughout 2018, reaching an annual rate of 4.45 million in December. The 2018 full year sales pace was 4.74 million. Currently, the cities with the fastest price increases are Las Vegas and Phoenix. These are a reminder of how prices rose and collapsed in the financial crisis 12 years ago. Despite their recent gains, Las Vegas and Phoenix are the furthest below their 2006 peaks of any city followed in the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices. The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Annual Gains Fall -With today's release of the December S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index were up 0.19% month over month. The seasonally adjusted national index year-over-year change has hovered between 4.2% and 6.7% for the last two-plus years. Today's S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index (nominal) reached another new high. The adjacent column chart illustrates the month-over-month change in the seasonally adjusted 20-city index, which tends to be the most closely watched of the Case-Shiller series. It was up 0.19% from the previous month. The nonseasonally adjusted index was up 4.2% year-over-year. Investing.com had forecast a 0.3% MoM seasonally adjusted increase and 4.9% YoY nonseasonally adjusted for the 20-city series. Here is an excerpt from the analysis in today's Standard & Poor's press release.“The annual rate of price increases continues to fall,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Even at the reduced pace of 4.7% per year, home prices continue to outpace wage gains of 3.5% to 4% and inflation of about 2%. A decline in interest rates in the fourth quarter was not enough to offset the impact of rising prices on home sales.The monthly number of existing single family homes sold dropped throughout 2018, reaching an annual rate of 4.45 million in December. The 2018 full year sales pace was 4.74 million.“Regional patterns continue to shift. Seattle and Portland, OR experienced the fastest price increases of any city from late 2016 to the spring of 2018; in December, they ranked 11th and 16th. Currently, the cities with the fastest price increases are Las Vegas and Phoenix. These are a reminder of how prices rose and collapsed in the financial crisis 12 years ago. Despite their recent gains, Las Vegas and Phoenix are the furthest below their 2006 peaks of any city followed in the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices. [Link to source] The chart below is an overlay of the Case-Shiller 10- and 20-City Composite Indexes along with the national index since 1987, the first year that the 10-City Composite was tracked. Note that the 20-City, which is probably the most closely watched of the three, dates from 2000. We've used the seasonally adjusted data for this illustration.
Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Smaller YoY House Price Gains in January -The Case-Shiller house price indexes for December were released yesterday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close. From Aaron Terrazas at Zillow: December Case-Shiller Results and January Forecast: Slowing home price gainsFor years, the housing market has been anything but “normal” or “balanced.” But as the start of the busy home shopping season looms, someone squinting at the market might be able to find signs of both normalcy and balance as the market continues to cool off after a years-long sizzle.Annual home price growth, while still rapid in a handful of the most in-demand and/or affordable markets, has fallen to a pace not far off historic norms and feels largely sustainable for now at a national level of 4.7 percent year-over-year in December. That pace is down from 5.1 percent in November, according to the Case-Shiller home price index. The Zillow forecast is for the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National index to decline to 4.4% in January compared to 4.7% in December.
NAR: Pending Home Sales Index Increased 4.6% in January --From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Jump 4.6 Percent in January Pending home sales rebounded strongly in January, according to the National Association of Realtors®. All four major regions saw growth last month, including the largest surge in the South.The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings,increased 4.6 percent to 103.2 in January, up from 98.7 in December. Year-over-year contract signings, however, declined 2.3 percent, making this the thirteenth straight month of annual decreases... The PHSI in the Northeast rose 1.6 percent to 94.0 in January, and is now 7.6 percent above a year ago. In the Midwest, the index rose 2.8 percent to 100.2 in January, 0.3 percent lower than January 2018.. Pending home sales in the South jumped 8.9 percent to an index of 119.8 in January, which is 3.1 percent lower than this time last year. The index in the West increased 0.3 percent in January to 87.3 and fell 10.1 percent below a year ago. This was well above expectations of a 3% decrease for this index. Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in February and March.
New Residential Housing Starts Drop in December - The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for December new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.078M was below the Investing.com forecast of 1.250M and a decrease from the previous month's revised 1.214M. Here is the opening of this morning's monthly report: Housing Starts: Data collection and processing were delayed for this indicator release due to the lapse in federal funding from December 22, 2018 through January 25, 2019. Although released for the first time this month, the December 2018 estimates of housing units authorized by building permits include late reports and corrections normally associated with the first revision to the estimates. While response rates were consistent with normal levels, delays in data collection could make it more difficult to determine exact start and completion dates. However, processing and data quality were monitored and no significant issues were identified.Privately‐owned housing starts in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,078,000. This is 11.2 percent (±14.0 percent)* below the revised November estimate of 1,214,000 and is 10.9 percent (±16.1 percent)* below the December 2017 rate of 1,210,000. Single‐family housing starts in December were at a rate of 758,000; this is 6.7 percent (±15.3 percent)* below the revised November figure of 812,000. The December rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 302,000. An estimated 1,246,600 housing units were started in 2018. This is 3.6 percent (±2.1%) above the 2017 figure of 1,203,000. [link to report] Here is the historical series for total privately-owned housing starts, which dates from 1959. Because of the extreme volatility of the monthly data points, a 6-month moving average has been included.
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.078 Million Annual Rate in December - From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions: Privately‐owned housing starts in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,078,000. This is 11.2 percent below the revised November estimate of 1,214,000 and is 10.9 percent below the December 2017 rate of 1,210,000. Single‐family housing starts in December were at a rate of 758,000; this is 6.7 percent below the revised November figure of 812,000. The December rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 302,000.An estimated 1,246,600 housing units were started in 2018. This is 3.6 percent (±2.1%) above the 2017 figure of 1,203,000. Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,326,000. This is 0.3 percent above the revised November rate of 1,322,000 and is 0.5 percent above the December 2017 rate of 1,320,000. Single‐family authorizations in December were at a rate of 829,000; this is 2.2 percent below the revised November figure of 848,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 460,000 in December.An estimated 1,310,700 housing units were authorized by building permits in 2018. This is 2.2 percent above the 2017 figure of 1,282,000. The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years.Multi-family starts (red, 2+ units) decreased in December compared to November. Multi-family starts were down 12% year-over-year in December.Multi-family is volatile month-to-month, and has been mostly moving sideways the last few years.Single-family starts (blue) decreased in December, and were down 11% year-over-year. The second graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968. The second graph shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then eventual recovery (but still historically low). Total housing starts in December were below expectations, and starts for October and November were revised down.
December housing permits and starts mixed, support slowdown scenario - This morning we finally got December housing permits and starts. Remember that starts are more volatile than permits, and single family permits are the least volatile of all. Here’s what the overall data looks like:While starts and completions laid an egg, permits actually went up a little bit.In particular, for housing to be outright recessionary, I would want to see single family housing permits down -10% from peak at minimum. This morning’s data has them down only about -6.5% off peak, just slightly above their worst showing of 2018.In other words, this morning’s report says slowdown rather than recession to me. On a side note, the talking heads on CNBC were bemoaning that lower mortgage rates hadn’t led to an substantial increase in housing starts. But as I’ve pointed out many times, permits and starts follow interest rates with about a 3 to 6 month lag. In other words, consistent with a bottom in housing construction this spring.
Comments on December Housing Starts - Bill Mcbride -- Earlier: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.078 Million Annual Rate in December- Total housing starts in December were well below expectations, and starts for October and November were revised down. The housing starts report released this morning showed starts were down 11.2% in December compared to November (November starts were revised down), and starts were down 10.9% year-over-year compared to December 2017. Single family starts were down 10.5% year-over-year. This was the weakest month for single family starts since August 2016. This first graph shows the month to month comparison for total starts between 2017 (blue) and 2018 (red).Starts were down 10.9% in December compared to December 2017. Even with the year end weakness, total starts were up 3.6% in 2018 compared to 2017. The weakness at the end of 2018 has been blamed on higher mortgage rates (that have since come down to around 4.5%), the stock market volatility (since stabilized), trade and immigration policies (impacting foreign buyers), and the partial government shutdown (started in December, but mostly in January). My sense is starts will pick up in Q1 compared to Q4 2018. Single family starts were up 2.8% in 2018 compared to 2017. Below is an update to the graph comparing multi-family starts and completions. Since it usually takes over a year on average to complete a multi-family project, there is a lag between multi-family starts and completions. Completions are important because that is new supply added to the market, and starts are important because that is future new supply (units under construction is also important for employment). These graphs use a 12 month rolling total for NSA starts and completions. The rolling 12 month total for starts (blue line) increased steadily for several years following the great recession - but turned down, and has moved sideways recently. Completions (red line) had lagged behind - however completions and starts are at about the same level now (more deliveries). As I've been noting for a few years, the significant growth in multi-family starts is behind us - multi-family starts peaked in June 2015 (at 510 thousand SAAR) - however multi-family has picked up a little recently.
Personal Income decreased 0.1% in January, increased 1.0% in December - The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for December, and Personal income for January: Due to the recent partial government shutdown, this report combines estimates for December 2018 and January 2019. December estimates include both income and outlays measures, while January estimates are limited to personal income. Estimates of outlays for January are unavailable due to a delay in the release of the Census Bureau’s Advance Monthly Retail Sales. Personal income increased $179.0 billion (1.0 percent) in December according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income increased $173.1 billion (1.1 percent), and personal consumption expenditures decreased $76.6 billion (-0.5 percent). Real DPI increased 1.0 percent in December and real PCE decreased 0.6 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. Personal income decreased $23.8 billion (-0.1 percent) in January. Disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $35.1 billion (-0.2 percent); Real DPI is unavailable for January. The increase in personal income for December was above expectations, however the change in personal income for January was well below consensus. The increase in core PCE was at expectations.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita in December -- With the release of this morning's report on December Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at"Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita.At two decimal places, the nominal 1.05% month-over-month change in disposable income was trimmed to 0.99% when we adjust for inflation. This is down from the 0.25% nominal and 0.20% real increases last month. The year-over-year metrics are 5.04% nominal and 3.24% real. Post-recession, the trend was one of steady growth, but generally flattened out in late 2015. Disposable income picked up in 2018. The first chart shows both the nominal per capita disposable income and the real (inflation-adjusted) equivalent since 2000. This indicator was significantly disrupted by the bizarre but predictable oscillation caused by 2012 year-end tax strategies in expectation of tax hikes in 2013. It will be interesting to see how the recent tax legislation affects the trend over time. The BEA uses the average dollar value in 2012 for inflation adjustment. But the 2012 peg is arbitrary and unintuitive. For a more natural comparison, let's compare the nominal and real growth in per-capita disposable income since 2000. Nominal disposable income is up 89.6% since then. But the real purchasing power of those dollars is up only 34.6%.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment: February Final Remains Positive - The University of Michigan Final Consumer Sentiment for February came in at 93.8, up 2.6 from the January Final reading.Investing.com had forecast 95.8.Surveys of Consumers chief economist, Richard Curtin, makes the following comments:Although sentiment was still above last month's low, the bounce-back from the end of the Federal shutdown faded in late February. While the overall level of confidence remains diminished, it is still quite positive. Nonetheless, aside from last month, it was only lower in one month since Trump's election, but barely, at 93.4 in July 2017. Consumers continued to react to the Fed's pause in raising interest rates, balancing the favorable impact on borrowing costs against the negative message that the economy at present could not withstand another rate hike. Long-term inflation expectations remained near the lowest level recorded in the past half century. Among households with incomes in the top third, the reduction in inflation expectations was even greater, falling to an all-time low of just 1.9%. Upper income households also anticipated a 3.0% gain in incomes, a gain well above those with incomes in the bottom two-thirds. This meant that real income expectations among upper income households rose to the highest level since the peaks recorded in the expansions in the 1980's and 1990's (see the chart). Note that no improvement in real income expectations was observed among households with incomes in the bottom two-thirds of the income distribution. The data indicate that personal consumption expenditures will grow by 2.6% in 2019 and the strength in consumer spending will mean that the expansion is expected to set a new record length by mid year. [More...] See the chart below for a long-term perspective on this widely watched indicator. Recessions and real GDP are included to help us evaluate the correlation between the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the broader economy.
Consumer Confidence Rebounds in February - The latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was released this morning based on data collected through February 15. The headline number of 131.4 was an increase from the final reading of 121.7 for January. Today's number was above the Investing.com consensus of 124.7. “Consumer Confidence rebounded in February, following three months of consecutive declines,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The Present Situation Index improved, as consumers continue to view both business and labor market conditions favorably. Expectations, which had been negatively impacted in recent months by financial market volatility and the government shutdown, recovered in February. Looking ahead, consumers expect the economy to continue expanding. However, according to The Conference Board’s economic forecasts, the pace of expansion is expected to moderate in 2019.” The chart below is another attempt to evaluate the historical context for this index as a coincident indicator of the economy. Toward this end, we have highlighted recessions and included GDP. The regression through the index data shows the long-term trend and highlights the extreme volatility of this indicator. Statisticians may assign little significance to a regression through this sort of data. But the slope resembles the regression trend for real GDP shown below, and it is a more revealing gauge of relative confidence than the 1985 level of 100 that the Conference Board cites as a point of reference.
U.S. consumer spending, factory data point to weak first quarter GDP growth (Reuters) - U.S. personal income fell for the first time in more than three years in January and consumer spending dropped by the most since 2009 in December, putting the economy on a weak growth path early in the first quarter. The economic outlook was also darkened by other data on Friday showing factory activity hit a more than two-year low in February, with manufacturers reporting slowing new orders and hiring. The reports extended the run of soft data on an economy that lost momentum at the tail end of 2018 and gave more credence to the Federal Reserve’s “patient” stance towards raising interest rates further this year. The economy is losing speed as the stimulus from a $1.5 trillion tax cut package and increased government spending fades. A trade war between the United States and China, higher interest rates, softening global growth and uncertainty over Britain’s exit from the European Union are clouding the outlook. “A modest slowdown remains the most likely path for 2019,” said Eric Winograd, senior U.S. economist at AllianceBernstein in New York. “We shouldn’t expect any action from the Fed into at least the second half of the year.” The Commerce Department said personal income slipped 0.1 percent in January, the first decline since November 2015, after jumping 1.0 percent in December. Income was weighed down by decreases in dividend, farm proprietors’ and interest income. Income was boosted in December by a one-time special dividend by information technology firm VMware Inc as well as government payments to farmers caught up in the U.S.-China trade war. Wages increased by a moderate 0.3 percent in January after rising 0.5 percent in December. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast incomes rising 0.3 percent in January. The Commerce Department did not publish the January consumer spending portion of the report as the collection and processing of retail sales data was delayed by a 35-day partial shutdown of the government that ended on Jan. 25. It reported that consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, dropped 0.5 percent in December. That was the biggest decline since September 2009 and followed a 0.6 percent increase in November. Households cut back on purchases of motor vehicles and recreational goods in December, leading to a 1.9 percent plunge in spending on goods. Spending on goods increased 1.0 percent in November. Outlays on services edged up 0.1 percent, held back by a decline in spending on household electricity and gas. Spending on services advanced 0.4 percent in November.
The number of retail stores closing this year just doubled to more than 4,000 — here's the full list - The staggering rate of store closures that has rocked the retail industry over the last couple years is expected to continue in 2019, with roughly the same level of closures expected this year. Retailers closed a record-breaking 102 million square feet of store space in 2017, then smashed that record in 2018 by closing another 155 million square feet of space, according to estimates by the commercial real estate firm CoStar Group. "This year we are predicting more of the same in the retail space," said Drew Myers, a CoStar senior consultant. Retailers have announced more than 4,000 store closures so far this year, according to an analysis by Business Insider. This list is expected to grow in the coming months. Payless, Gymboree, Shopko, Performance Bicycle, and Charlotte Russe are responsible for the bulk of the expected closures announced to date. All four companies have filed for bankruptcy and announced full or partial liquidations. Payless alone, which said this week it would liquidate 2,500 stores, accounts for more than half of the expected closures. Sears, which recently emerged from bankruptcy, is also a key contributor to the closings. The company is expected to close 70 Sears stores and 50 Kmart stores this month in its third wave of closings since filing for bankruptcy in October. Meanwhile, Macy's, JCPenney, Kohl's, and Nordstrom are closing more than a dozen stores collectively. Department stores will drive most of the closures Most of the closures this year will continue to be concentrated in big-box and department stores, Myers said. "Certainly department stores and apparel brands are a little more stressed today than in years past, so that is the big driver," he said.
February Vehicle Sales Forecast: 16.6 Million SAAR - From JD Power: J.D. Power and LMC Automotive Forecast February 2019 "The year is off to its slowest start since 2014 with the industry set to post sales declines again in February. While retail sales through the first two months will be down more than 4%, it's important to note that January and February are among the lowest volume sales months of the year." (Last year the two months combined to account for only 13.5% of the annual total.) Looking ahead to the coming months, the industry should expect to receive a slight boost with the recovery of any lost sales due to inclement weather. [Forecast: total sales 16.6 million SAAR] This forecast is for sales to be about the same level as in January, and down from 16.9 million SAAR in February 2018.
December Wholesale Inventories Soar, Sales Slump For 3rd Straight Month"If we build it, they will come" Well they didn't!! Wholesale Inventories rose 1.1% MoM In December - the most since Oct 2013. But at the same time, Wholesale Sales slumped 1.0% MoM - the 3rd straight monthly decline... Wholesale inventories excluding oil rose 1.3% in December. Wholesale sales excluding automobiles fell 0.8% in December. Perhaps most worrisome, Wholesales Sales YoY have collapse to almost unchanged as inventories have surged... Inventory/Sales ratio at 1.33 in Dec. after 1.3 in the prior month... So while this offers some hope for Q4 GDP revisions, it is unsustainable as sales are failing to appear.
In 30 years, I’ve Never Seen Anything Like This - Inventory Pileup Sounds Alarm - Sales at merchant wholesalers (except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices) fell 1% in December 2018, compared to November, to $497.2 billion on a seasonally adjusted basis, and inched up only 1% compared to December 2017, according to the Census Bureau estimates this morning. But inventories at these wholesalers rose 1.1% from November and jumped 7.3% from December 2017, to $661.8 billion. Over the two-year period through December, inventories have risen 11%. This includes inventories of durable and non-durable goods (we’ll look at them separately in a moment): This surge of inventories on soft sales caused the inventory-to-sales ratio to spike to 1.33, up from 1.30 in November and up from 1.25 a year earlier. This is a familiar pattern. As inventories are piling up, and as inventory carrying-costs rise, companies eventually react: They whittle down their inventories by cutting orders. As we have seen in 2015 and 2016, this hammers the goods-based sectors of the economy. In 2016, it dragged GDP growth down to just 1.6%, the worst growth rate since the Great Recession. The overall economy was barely kept out of a recession by the service sector.The transportation sector tracked this perfectly as it fell into a steep recession in 2015 and 2016. Now a similar pattern is starting to form: A surging inventory-to-sales ratio as inventories are piling up, while shipment volume of goods, as tracked by the Cass Freight Index, have started to decline on a year-over-year basis.The Cass Freight Index covers consumer and industrial goods shipped by all modes of transportation — truck, rail, barge, and air — but does not cover commodities such as grains. I overlaid the two data sets: The Cass Freight Index for Shipments, expressed as percent change from the same month a year earlier (columns, left scale), and the inventory-to-sales ratio (green line, right scale): Here are some standout categories, in terms of percent change in December 2018, compared to December 2017. Note the three categories with double-digit jumps, two of them relating to the construction sector:
- Furniture & Home Furnishings: +8.9%
- Motor Vehicle & Motor Vehicle Parts & Supplies: 7.3%
- Machinery, Equipment, & Supplies: 12.7%
- Hardware, Plumbing & Heating Equipment & Supplies: 12.1%
- Lumber & Other Construction Materials: 14.9%
- Household Appliances & Electrical and Electronic Goods: 6.5%.
The chart below compares the year-over-year percent change in durable goods inventories at wholesalers to the year-over-year percent change in the Cass Shipments Index. Note the turning point in shipments late last year. Inventories follow with a lag.
U.S. goods trade deficit deteriorates; factory orders edge up (Reuters) - The U.S. goods trade deficit widened sharply in December as slowing global demand and a strong dollar weighed on exports, another sign that economic growth slowed in the fourth quarter. A ship loaded with containers is pictured at Yusen Terminals (YTI) on Terminal Island at the Port of Los Angeles in Los Angeles, California, U.S., January 30, 2019. REUTERS/Mike Blake Other data from the Commerce Department on Wednesday showed new orders for U.S.-made goods barely rose in December and business spending on equipment was much weaker than previously thought, pointing to a softening in manufacturing activity. The reports, which added to weak December data on retail sales and housing starts, could prompt economists to cut fourth-quarter GDP estimates. But some of the drag on growth from the goods trade gap and weak business spending on equipment could be offset by a strong increase in inventories in December. The goods trade deficit jumped 12.8 percent to $79.5 billion in December, boosted also by an increase in imports. Exports fell 2.8 percent amid steep declines in shipments of foods, industrial supplies and capital goods. Imports increased 2.4 percent driven by food and capital and consumer goods. Retail inventories increased 0.9 percent in December after falling 0.4 percent in the prior month. Retail inventories, excluding motor vehicles and parts, the component that goes into the calculation of gross domestic product, rebounded 1.0 percent in December after dropping 0.9 percent in November. Growth estimates for the fourth quarter are currently around a 2.0 percent annualized rate. The government will publish the fourth-quarter GDP report on Thursday. The economy grew at a 3.4 percent pace in the third quarter.
Don't Show President Trump This Record-Breaking Trade Deficit Chart - The US trade deficit of goods widened to $79.5b in December from $70.5b in November as exports fell 2.8% and imports rose 2.4%. That compared with the median estimate of economists for $73.6 billion. Exports of Industrial Supplies and Capital Goods plunged in December and imports of food & beverage surged. This is the widest goods trade deficit in US history. Trump is not winning on this one!
U.S. factory orders edge up scant 0.1% in December - New orders for U.S.-made goods barely rose in December and business spending on equipment was much weaker than previously thought, pointing to a softening in manufacturing activity. Factory goods orders edged up 0.1 percent, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday, amid declining demand for machinery and electrical equipment, appliances and components. Data for November was revised slightly up to show factory orders falling 0.5 percent instead of the previously reported 0.6 percent drop. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast factory orders rising 0.5 percent in December. The release of the report was delayed by a 35-day partial shutdown of the federal government that ended on Jan. 25. Manufacturing, which accounts for about 12 percent of the economy, is slowing as some of the boost to capital spending from last year's $1.5 trillion tax cut package fades. In addition, a strong dollar and cooling growth in Europe and China are hurting exports. Lower oil prices are also slowing purchases of equipment for oil and gas well drilling. In December, orders for machinery dropped 1.0 percent after tumbling 2.0 percent in November. Orders for mining, oil field and gas field machinery plunged 5.2 percent after rising 1.9 percent in November. There were also decreases in orders for industrial machinery as well as turbines, generators and other power transmission equipment in December. Orders for electrical equipment, appliances and components fell 0.3 percent after dropping 2.6 percent in November. Orders for transportation equipment rose 3.2 percent in December after increasing 3.1 percent in the prior month. Orders for civilian aircraft and parts jumped 28.4 percent in December. Motor vehicles and parts orders rose 2.4 percent. The Commerce Department also said December orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, which are seen as a measure of business spending plans on equipment, fell 1.0 percent instead of the 0.7 percent drop reported last week. Orders for these so-called core capital goods declined 1.1 percent in November. Shipments of core capital goods, which are used to calculate business equipment spending in the gross domestic product report, were unchanged in December instead of the previously reported 0.5 percent increase. Core capital goods shipments fell 0.2 percent in November.
Chemical Activity Barometer "Flat" in February - Note: This appears to be a leading indicator for industrial production. From the American Chemistry Council: Chemical Activity Barometer Is Flat In February The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), posted a 0.0 percent change in February on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis. On a year-over-year (Y/Y) basis, the barometer is up 0.2 percent (3MMA)...“The Chemical Activity Barometer reading was essentially flat in February following three months of decline,” said Kevin Swift, chief economist at ACC. “The cumulative drop was 1.0 percent – still well below the 3.0 percent threshold for a recession signal. The latest CAB signals gains in U.S. commercial and industrial activity through mid-2019, but at a slower rate of growth as compared with a year earlier.” The government shutdown resulted in delays in publishing many data series that ACC uses to compare the CAB. Such delays can make it more difficult to gauge current economic conditions.…Applying the CAB back to 1912, it has been shown to provide a lead of two to fourteen months, with an average lead of eight months at cycle peaks as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The median lead was also eight months. At business cycle troughs, the CAB leads by one to seven months, with an average lead of four months. The median lead was three months. The CAB is rebased to the average lead (in months) of an average 100 in the base year (the year 2012 was used) of a reference time series. The latter is the Federal Reserve’s Industrial Production Index.
ISM Manufacturing index Decreased to 54.2 in February - The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in February. The PMI was at 54.2% in February, down from 56.6% in January. The employment index was at 53.2%, down from 55.5% last month, and the new orders index was at 55.5%, down from 58.2%. From the Institute for Supply Management: February 2019 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® “The February PMI® registered 54.2 percent, an decrease of 2.4 percentage points from the January reading of 56.6 percent. The New Orders Index registered 55.5 percent, a decrease of 2.7 percentage points from the January reading of 58.2 percent. The Production Index registered 54.8 percent, 5.7-percentage point decrease compared to the January reading of 60.5 percent.The Employment Index registered 52.3 percent, a decrease of 3.2 percentage points from the January reading of 55.5 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 54.9 percent, a 1.3 percentage point decrease from the January reading of 56.2 percent. The Inventories Index registered 53.4 percent, an increase of 0.6 percentage point from the January reading of 52.8 percent. The Prices Index registered 49.4 percent, a 0.2-percentage point decrease from the January reading of 49.6 percent, indicating lower raw materials prices for the second straight month after nearly three years of increases. Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index. This was below expectations of 55.0%, and suggests manufacturing expanded at a slower pace in February than in January.
February Markit Manufacturing PMI: 18-Month Low - The February US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 53.0, down 1.9 from the 54.9 final January figure. Markit's Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction.Here is an excerpt from Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit in their latest press release: February data signalled a softer, but still solid, improvement in operating conditions across the U.S. manufacturing sector. The headline PMI slipped to its lowest since August 2017 amid slower expansions in output and new orders. Notably, the increases were slower than their respective long-run trends, with growth rates dipping to 17- and 20-month lows, respectively. Meanwhile, foreign client demand continued to rise marginally. A sustained upturn in new orders led to a further rise in employment, with backlogs also increasing. [Press Release] Here is a snapshot of the series since mid-2012.
"We Are Concerned About A Slight Recession" - US Manufacturing Survey Plunges To 26-Month Lows - With US economic data at its most disappointing in 18 months, it should not be surprising that Markit's US Manufacturing PMI plummeted to 53.0 in February - its lowest since August 2017. Under the hood in the PMI data, new orders tumbled to 52.7 (lowest since June 2017), and output slowed to its weakest since Sept 2017.ISM's Manufacturing survey rebounded in January (like PMI) after December's plunge, and was expected to slide back modestly in February, but it didn't - it plunged back to cycle lows 54.2 - the lowest since Dec 2016. As a reminder, the last time the ISM imploded two months ago, it was the catalyst that sent stocks plunging. So far, however, it has not had much of an impact on risk assets as the narrative now is that China can reflate the world.Looking at the index, ISM Prices Paid contracted (49.4) for the second month in a row as new orders and employment stumbled. The complaints by respondents largely focused on weak exports and trade, a function of the ongoing trade war with China, as well as the occasional weather lament: […] For his part, not even IHS Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson sounded his usual upbeat self: "The PMI indicates the US manufacturing sector is growing at its weakest rate for one and a half years, with firms reporting a marked easing in production growth in February, linked to a similar slowdown in order book growth.“The survey exhibits a strong advance correlation with comparable official data, and suggests that factory production and orders growth rates are close to stalling mid-way through the first quarter, albeit in part representing some pay-back after a strong January. Export markets remained the principal drag on order books.
Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Expansion Continues" From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Expansion Continues - Texas factory activity continued to expand in February, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, slipped four points to 10.1, indicating a slight deceleration in output growth. Most other measures of manufacturing activity also suggested continued but slower expansion in February. The new orders index fell five points to 6.9, its lowest reading in more than two years. Similarly, the capacity utilization index fell eight points to 7.1 and reached a two-year low. Meanwhile, the shipments index was largely unchanged at 10.7.Perceptions of broader business conditions improved notably in February. The general business activity index rose 12 points to 13.1 after posting weak readings the prior two months. The company outlook index rose seven points to 14.2, a four-month high. The index measuring uncertainty regarding companies’ outlooks retreated 12 points to 4.1, its lowest reading in nine months.Labor market measures suggested stronger employment growth and little change in workweek length in February. The employment index rebounded from 6.6 to 12.6. So far the regional surveys have been mixed for February.
Richmond Fed Manufacturing: Strengthening Growth in February - Today the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Composite Index increased to 16 for the month of February, up from last month's -2.Investing.com had forecast 8. Because of the highly volatile nature of this index, we include a 3-month moving average to facilitate the identification of trends, now at 1.3, which indicates expansion. The complete data series behind today's Richmond Fed manufacturing report, which dates from November 1993, is available here.Here is a snapshot of the complete Richmond Fed Manufacturing Composite series. Here is the latest Richmond Fed manufacturing overview. Fifth District manufacturing activity strengthened in February, according to the latest survey from the Richmond Fed. The composite index rose from −2 in January to 16 in February, buoyed by increases in the indexes for shipments and new orders. The employment index fell slightly in February but remained in expansionary territory. Meanwhile, the index for local business conditions rose to 4, indicating improvement, after two months of negative readings. Firms remained optimistic that conditions would continue to improve in the next six months. Survey results suggested that both employment and wages remained strong in February, but firms continued to struggle to find workers with the skills they needed. Respondents expected this challenge to continue in the coming months. Survey participants indicated that growth rates of both prices paid and prices received fell in February, as growth of prices paid continued to outpace that of prices received. Firms expected price growth to slow further in the near future. Link to Report Here is a somewhat closer look at the index since the turn of the century.
Kansas City Fed: "Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Up Only Slightly" From the Kansas City Fed: Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Up Only Slightly The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the February Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that Tenth District manufacturing activity was up only slightly, while expectations for future activity remained positive but were slightly lower than in previous months.“Regional factories saw hardly any growth in February,” said Wilkerson. “More than three-quarters of firms reported difficulties in finding workers, despite wage increases.” ..The month-over-month composite index was 1 in January, down from 5 in January and 6 in December. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Factories expanded durable goods production, particularly machinery and transportation equipment, while manufacturing of more non-durable goods, including food and beverage products, declined. Most month-over-month indexes decreased in February, with production, shipments, and new orders dropping into negative territory. However, the month-over-month employment index expanded moderately. This was the last of the regional Fed surveys for February. Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index: The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (yellow, through February), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through February) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through January (right axis). Based on these regional surveys, it seems likely the ISM manufacturing index will be at about the same level in February as in January. The consensus forecast is for a reading of 55.0 (to be released on Friday, March 1st).
February Regional Fed Manufacturing Overview - Five out of the twelve Federal Reserve Regional Districts currently publish monthly data on regional manufacturing: Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, and Philadelphia. Regional manufacturing surveys are a measure of local economic health and are used as a representative for the larger national manufacturing health. They have been used as a signal for business uncertainty and economic activity as a whole. Manufacturing makes up 12% of the country's GDP. The other 6 Federal Reserve Districts do not publish manufacturing data. For these, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book offers a short summary of each districts’ manufacturing health. The Chicago Fed published their Midwest Manufacturing Index from July 1996 through December of 2013. According to their website, "The Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index (CFMMI) is undergoing a process of data and methodology revision. In December 2013, the monthly release of the CFMMI was suspended pending the release of updated benchmark data from the U.S. Census Bureau and a period of model verification. Significant revisions in the history of the CFMMI are anticipated." Here is a three-month moving average overlay of each of the five indicators since 2001 (for those with data). The latest average of the five for February is 4.9, down from the previous month's 8.0. It is below its all-time high of 25.1, set in May 2004.
Chicago PMI Accelerates in February - The Chicago Business Barometer, also known as the Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index, is similar to the national ISM Manufacturing indicator but at a regional level and is seen by many as an indicator of the larger US economy. It is a composite diffusion indicator, made up of production, new orders, order backlogs, employment, and supplier deliveries compiled through surveys. Values above 50.0 indicate expanding manufacturing activity.The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index, or the Chicago Business Barometer, jumped to 64.7 in February from 56.7 in January, which was above the Investing.com forecast of 58.1. Values above 50.0 indicate expanding manufacturing activity.Here is an excerpt from the press release: “The sharp pick-up in the Barometer to a level not seen in over a year, underpinned by the growth in demand and production, showcases a healthy image of the US economy,” said Shaily Mittal, Senior Economist at MNI Indicators. “With the Fed’s cautious approach towards monetary tightening along with soft inflation, firms remain optimistic about their business activity,” she added. [Source] Let's take a look at the Chicago PMI since its inception.
Manufacturing holds on in February --The theme for most reports remains that the government shutdown in December and January, plus a 30 year record cold snap for a week in January, put a real dent in the economy. That certainly was the message of December personal spending and December and January personal spending this morning. But it looks like there was no significant damage to manufacturing. This week three regional Fed banks reported February manufacturing in their region, followed by the Chicago PMI, and finally ISM manufacturing this morning. At the end of January, the average new orders reading of the five regional Feds was +5. After much storm and drang, notably a big downdraft in the Kansas City region, but an even bigger updraft in Richmond, the average for February increased +1 to 6. One regional Fed that does not report is Chicago, but the Chicago PMI’s new orders index, which has been running hotter than the other regional reports for months, also bounced back strongly in February, from 53.2 to 68.4 (which is still not quite as positive as it was for a number of months earlier last year). Subtracting 50 to make this compatible with the Fed indexes gives us an increase in the average from +5 in January to +10 in February. Finally, this morning the ISM new orders index for February declined to 55.5 from January’s 58.2 reading. The total index declined from 56.6 to 54.2, the lowest in nearly two years.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 225,000 - The DOL reported: In the week ending February 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 225,000, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 216,000 to 217,000. The 4-week moving average was 229,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 235,750 to 236,000. The previous week was revised up. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.
Bezos Admits His Fortune Is Due to Public Infrastructure….Even as He Fought Paying a Homeless Tax in Seattle, Shakes Down Cities for Subsidies -- Yves Smith - As the lawyers like to say, res ipsa loquitur, or the thing speaks for itself. But I wanted to add a comment to this section of a section from a lightly edited Q&A held with Jeff Bezos at the Yale Club, published in Business Insider. Another factor that helped boost Amazon sales was its avoidance of charging sales taxes to buyers….a practice that gave it great advantage over brick and mortar retailers. From Business Insider: Bezos: I’ve witnessed this incredible thing happen on the internet over the last two decades. I started Amazon in my garage 24 years ago — drove packages to the post office myself. Today we have 600,000-plus people, millions and millions of customers, a very large company.How did that happen in such a short period of time? It happened because we didn’t have to do any of the heavy lifting. All of the heavy-lifting infrastructure was already in place for it. There was already a telecommunication network, which became the backbone of the internet. There was already a payment system — it was called the credit card. There was already a transportation network called the US Postal Service, and Royal Mail, and Deutsche Post, all over the world, that could deliver our packages. We didn’t have to build any of that heavy infrastructure.An even more stark example is Facebook. Here’s a guy who literally, in his dorm room, started a company — Mark Zuckerberg started a company in his dorm room, which is now worth half a trillion dollars — less than two decades ago. How do you get that kind of entrepreneurial [advancement] in space? You need to lower the price of admission right now to do anything interesting in space because it requires so much heavy lifting and so much infrastructure development. The entry price point for doing interesting things is hundreds of millions of dollars. Nobody is going to do that in their dorm room.
Immigrants endure inhuman conditions at ICE prison in New Jersey - Under a service agreement with US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), Essex County Correctional Facility in Newark, New Jersey, has been detaining immigrant workers in shocking squalor. A report by the US Department of Homeland Security’s Office of Inspector General (OIG) describes conscious, systematic violations and unsanitary conditions that compromise detainees’ health and safety. This inhumane imprisonment is the product of the Obama and Trump administrations’ bipartisan war on immigrants and assault on the working class.The Essex County Correctional Facility can house as many as 928 male detainees. It has been holding immigrants awaiting deportation hearings for ICE since 2010. The report summarizes the findings of the OIG’s unannounced inspection of the jail in July 2018.The OIG observed an appalling lack of food safety at the jail. “The food handling, in general, was so substandard that ICE and facility leadership had the kitchen manager replaced during our inspection,” according to the report.Inspectors found raw, spoiled and expired meat in the kitchen. Refrigerators contained “open packages of raw chicken leaking blood all over” and “slimy, foul-smelling lunch meat, which appeared to be spoiled.” Inspectors also observed kitchen staff serving these mishandled meats to detainees, potentially exposing them to Salmonella, Listeria, and E. coli. “During dinner service, we observed facility staff serving detainees hamburgers that were foul smelling and unrecognizable,” said the inspectors. In addition, kitchen management had hung a notice warning staff not to dispose of any bread. Kitchen workers told the inspectors that they routinely put all unused bread into trash bags and trash cans so that it could be made into bread pudding every two or three weeks. Inspectors also found expired and moldy bread in refrigerators. These disgusting practices create the risk of allergic reactions, respiratory problems, and sickness among employees and detainees.
Secret Lives of Facebook Moderators - The video depicts a man being murdered. Someone is stabbing him, dozens of times, while he screams and begs for his life. Chloe’s job is to tell the room whether this post should be removed. She knows that section 13 of the Facebook community standards prohibits videos that depict the murder of one or more people. When Chloe explains this to the class, she hears her voice shaking. Returning to her seat, Chloe feels an overpowering urge to sob. Another trainee has gone up to review the next post, but Chloe cannot concentrate. She leaves the room, and begins to cry so hard that she has trouble breathing. No one tries to comfort her. This is the job she was hired to do. And for the 1,000 people like Chloe moderating content for Facebook at the Phoenix site, and for 15,000 content reviewers around the world, today is just another day at the office. Over the past three months, I interviewed a dozen current and former employees of Cognizant in Phoenix. All had signed non-disclosure agreements with Cognizant in which they pledged not to discuss their work for Facebook — or even acknowledge that Facebook is Cognizant’s client. The shroud of secrecy is meant to protect employees from users who may be angry about a content moderation decision and seek to resolve it with a known Facebook contractor. The NDAs are also meant to prevent contractors from sharing Facebook users’ personal information with the outside world, at a time of intense scrutiny over data privacy issues. The moderators told me it’s a place where the conspiracy videos and memes that they see each day gradually lead them to embrace fringe views.. One auditor walks the floor promoting the idea that the Earth is flat. A former employee told me he has begun to question certain aspects of the Holocaust. Another former employee, who told me he has mapped every escape route out of his house and sleeps with a gun at his side, said: “I no longer believe 9/11 was a terrorist attack.
Inside The Tormented Lives Of PTSD-Stricken, Underpaid Facebook Moderators - - Facebook content moderators - some paid just $28,800 per year to sift through an endless bombardment of "rape, torture, bestiality, beheadings, suicide and murder," have been coping with seeing traumatic images in a number of ways, according to The Verge's Casey Newton. Some moderators get through the day by telling dark jokes about committing suicide. Others smoke weed during breaks to numb their emotions ("Moderators are routinely high at work," notes Newton). Employees have even been caught having sex in stairwells and a room for lactating mothers in what one employee described as "trauma bonding." "You’d go into work at 9am every morning, turn on your computer and watch someone have their head cut off. Every day, every minute, that’s what you see. Heads being cut off," one content moderator recently told the Guardian last September. The Verge's three-month investigation into the troubled lives of a dozen current and former Facebook content moderators centers around Phoenix contractor Cognizant, which employs 1,000 of the Facebook's 15,000 content reviewers around the world. The employees describe the emotional toll that their job takes on them - as they grow distant from loved ones, anxious and isolated - in a workplace "that is perpetually teetering on the brink of chaos." The panic attacks started after Chloe watched a man die.She spent the past three and a half weeks in training, trying to harden herself against the daily onslaught of disturbing posts: the hate speech, the violent attacks, the graphic pornography. In a few more days, she will become a full-time Facebook content moderator, or what the company she works for, a professional services vendor named Cognizant, opaquely calls a “process executive.”For this portion of her education, Chloe will have to moderate a Facebook post in front of her fellow trainees. When it’s her turn, she walks to the front of the room, where a monitor displays a video that has been posted to the world’s largest social network. None of the trainees have seen it before, Chloe included. She presses play.The video depicts a man being murdered. Someone is stabbing him, dozens of times, while he screams and begs for his life. Chloe’s job is to tell the room whether this post should be removed. She knows that section 13 of the Facebook community standards prohibits videos that depict the murder of one or more people. When Chloe explains this to the class, she hears her voice shaking. -The Verge
Two democratic socialists win spots on Chicago city council, three headed to run-offs - As many as five self-described democratic socialists could be on the Chicago City Council after two members won outright elections on Tuesday. The Chicago Sun Times reports Alderman Carlos Ramirez-Rosa won his reelection bid Tuesday and Daniel La Spata upset an incumbent to join the council. Both are members of the Chicago Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) group. Three additional DSA members are headed to run-off elections slated for April after successful showings Tuesday. “Our continued organizing and movement-building over the last four years is paying dividends and it appears to be a total transformation of political power at city hall from the bottom up,” Ramirez-Rosa told a crowd Tuesday night following his victory. The DSA is not an official political party but instead a “political and activist organization,” said socialist Rosanna Rodríguez-Sánchez, who will face an incumbent in the April run-off. “Chicago had a way of doing politics and I feel like that died tonight. The city’s dinosaurs are done. I’m very very confident that I’m going to win," she told the Sun Times. The DSA for years has only had one representative on the Chicago City Council, but co-chair Lucie Macías said she is excited to see that change. “For the third biggest city in the country to have a DSA caucus is amazing and having members around Carlos will only amplify the causes that working-class Chicago — not the rich — wants,” Macías said. DSA members Andre Vazquez and Byron Sigcho-Lopez will also head to run-offs in April for the chance to secure a spot on the city council.
A mom found videos on YouTube Kids that gave children instructions for suicide - Most parents feel pretty safe letting their children watch YouTube Kids, the child-friendly version of the video platform. But disturbing videos recently found by some moms show the social media site may not be safe for kids at all. A Florida mother said she has found clips on YouTube and YouTube Kids that gave children instructions on how to kill themselves. Free Hess said the first time she saw such a video was back in July when another mom alerted her to it after she and her son were watching cartoon videos on YouTube Kids. Spliced in the middle of one of the videos was footage of a man in sunglasses telling children how to slit their wrists.
How economic inequality gives rise to hyper-parenting - The parent trap - WaPo --In many American circles, “helicopter parents” monitor their children’s every move, and outliers who let their kids walk home from the playground on their own risk rebuke by local police. Meanwhile, in Switzerland, even kindergartners walk to school without adult supervision. And Sweden and Germany offer popular “forest kindergartens,” where children stay outdoors in nearly all weather, playing and exploring with minimal adult guidance. In those countries, unlike in U.S. classrooms, early literacy and numeracy are not part of the curriculum, even in regular preschools; teachers emphasize play and crafts instead. In China, by contrast, strict parenting is a much-discussed part of national life — and was the subject of a hugely popular television series, “Tiger Mom.” Discussions of differences like these often focus on culture. China’s Confucian tradition, for instance, emphasizes respect for elders, which some observers suggest could be one influence on authoritarian parenting. But we have found in our research that varying parenting styles among nations are rooted primarily in economics — specifically, economic inequality. The common denominator in countries where intense, achievement-oriented parenting abounds is a large gap between the rich and the poor. Conversely, where inequality is low and governments provide safety nets, a more relaxed, permissive parenting style holds sway. That suggests that to reduce the epidemic of hypercompetitive and overinvolved parenting in the United States, simply exhorting people to be more laid back won’t work. The only solution is to attack the problem at the root: by combating inequality. The World Values Survey includes a question asking parents to select up to five values, from a list of 10, that they regard as most important for rearing children. We placed nations on an intensive-permissive parenting continuum based on their relative rankings of “hard work,” “obedience,” “imagination” and “independence.” In the United States, about two-thirds of parents include hard work on the list of top values to instill in children; in Sweden, only about 11 percent of parents place hard work that high. This lines up with differences in economic inequality: In the United States, households in the top 20 percent of the income distribution earn on average almost nine times more than households in the bottom 20 percent. In Sweden, the top quintile earns 4.3 times more than the bottom.
13-Year-Old US Activist Hailed as Glorious 'Threat' to Those Driving Planetary Disaster With Climate Denialism -- She's just 13 years old, but she's "a threat." That's climate activist Alexandria Villaseñor, who explained in an interview Friday morning, "My generation is going to have to live in a climate-changed world, and the fact that nothing was done in order to make sure that we don't live in planetary catastrophe—it's very disappointing and it's upsetting." A recent New York City transplant, Villaseñor—taking inspiration from Swedish teen Greta Thunberg—has been standing in front of the United Nations every Friday for 11 weeks. She's also co-leading the U.S. Youth Climate Strike movement, which is organizing to get thousands of students to take part in a global day of climate action on March 15. In a tweet sent following her interview with CBS News, the teenager appeared shocked that she had actually gone on national television and "told all the adults in America that they are threatened by us!" In fact, "yes, you are a threat," responded author and climate activist Naomi Klein, "because believing climate science means embracing deep change to a way of life that has long been equated with freedom and power (but is, in fact, a straight shot to utter powerlessness and loss of freedom)."
Teachers to join climate protests to demand curriculum reform - Teachers will follow on the heels of striking students on Friday with a protest to demand the national curriculum be reformed to make the climate and ecological crisis an educational priority. The Extinction Rebellion group will support the demonstration outside the Department for Education, which organisers describe as a “peaceful nonviolent protest that may involve civil disobedience”. It is intended as a show of solidarity for pupils who skipped classes last Friday to express their frustration at the failure of older generations to adequately address climate change. Organisers said more than 10,000 young people in at least 60 towns and cities in the UK joined the strike. More would be likely to follow, they said, if the government did not live up to a Paris climate agreement promise to enhance climate change education. Instead, they say, there is currently no requirement for children to be taught about the climate crisis so it is treated, at best, as a peripheral subtopic of subjects like geography and science. They are also unhappy that part of the curriculum appears to cast doubt on the evidence for man-made climate change, even though governments, the UN and the overwhelming majority of scientists accept that it is happening. Government guidelines for key stage 4 chemistry say pupils should be taught “evidence, and uncertainties in evidence, for additional anthropogenic causes of climate change”. Tim Jones, a secondary school teacher from Lewisham, said students in the state system could easily go through 11 years of compulsory education and hear climate change mentioned in fewer than 10 lessons out of approximately 10,000. Given the scale of the crisis, he believes this is “negligent”.
States Are Introducing Bills That Could Prevent Teachers From Advocating For Climate Change - Several states have recently introduced bills that could interfere with the teaching of scientifically founded theories on climate change in public school science curricula. A bill in South Dakota would require each school board to adopt a code of ethics that prevents public school elementary and secondary school teachers from advocating "for any issue that is part of a political party platform at the national, state, or local level." The Arizona legislature introduced a nearly identical bill. Virginia legislators proposed a bill with similar language, arguing that some teachers are abusing taxpayer dollars to "speak to captive audiences of students in an attempt to indoctrinate or influence students to adopt specific political and ideological positions on issues of social and political controversy ... under the guise of 'teaching for social justice' and other sectarian doctrines." In Maine, a comparable bill states that "the rules must require a teacher to provide students with materials supporting both sides of a controversial issue being addressed and to present both sides in a fair-minded, nonpartisan manner." Science education groups are concerned that these bills, if enacted, would limit instruction on anthropogenic climate change, which is a key tenet of state and federal Democratic Party platforms. In the case of Maine, the bill could require teachers to discuss climate change as a disputed theory and present disproven theories for the global rise in temperatures as valid. Other states have introduced legislation that singles out the teaching of climate change directly. A bill in Montana takes a public stance on climate change that "reasonable amounts of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere have no verifiable impacts on the environment; science shows human emissions do not change atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions enough to cause climate change; claims that carbon associated with human activities causes climate change are invalid; and nature, not human activity, causes climate change." Any educational and informational materials on climate change would be required to include this information.
Koch Network Pushes Deceitful Textbook on Cash-Strapped Schools - I was one of a number of community residents who reviewed the textbook, Ethics, Economy and Entrepreneurship (EE&E), proposed for use in Tucson Unified School District high schools. To me, the first clue that this textbook lacked academic integrity was when the authors, three philosophy and marketing professors, began their section on trade 40,000 years ago with the claim that the Neanderthals became extinct because they “weren’t entrepreneurs.” Further nonsense included the idea that Jamestown failed because the settlers didn’t have private property rights, that American bison almost became extinct because Native Americans drove them off cliffs, and that towns were founded before agriculture. Once they get to economics, the authors avoid any major event that challenges their belief that unregulated, “free-market” capitalism is the best of all possible economic systems. Shockingly, they completely ignore two of the most significant economic events: the market crashes of 1929 and 2008. Lastly, while 90 percent of working people will work for employers rather than for themselves, the authors champion entrepreneurship over employment to high school students without indicating the success rate for entrepreneurs under the age of 40 is limited. The EE&E textbook does not adhere to textbook guidelines recommended to educators. It was not written by experts in the field, peer-reviewed and published by a reputable publishing house — it is published by Sagent Labs, which is owned by the authors. Moreover, the textbook does not have footnotes, an index, a bibliography or references to help students distinguish between credentialed subject matter experts and propagandists. Why the textbook was written, though, is an interesting tale of dark money advancing libertarian propaganda.
Ralph Northam's Wife Schools Black Kids On Slavery Using Raw Cotton - - Virginia's first lady Pam Northam has come under fire after handing raw cotton to two black eighth-graders during a tour of the Governor's mansion, and suggested the students imagine what it was like under slavery to pick said cotton, according to the Washington Post. One of the students was the daughter of a Virginia state employee. According to Leah Dozier Walker, director of the state education department's Office of Equity and Community Engagement, Northam singled out the only black kids out of 20 young people who had served as pages during the state Senate session. The incident comes less than a month after Virginia Governor Ralph Northam (D) came under fire for a racist 1984 medical school yearbook photo showing him either in blackface or a KKK outfit. While Northam initially apologized for the photo, he later said he wasn't in the photo - though he then admitted that he wore blackface for a San Antonio dance competition in his youth. "The Governor and Mrs. Northam have asked the residents of the Commonwealth to forgive them for their racially insensitive past actions," said Walker. "But the actions of Mrs. Northam, just last week, do not lead me to believe that this Governor’s office has taken seriously the harm and hurt they have caused African Americans in Virginia or that they are deserving of our forgiveness." A spokesperson for the governor's office told The Hill that Northam hosted 100 legislative pages at the mansion, and invited them all to touch products displayed in the mansion's historic kitchen, including tobacco, produce and cotton. Northam did not single any of them out, according to the spokesperson.
Can schools require students to say the Pledge of Allegiance? - A recent dispute at a Florida public school related to the Pledge of Allegiance raises an interesting question about student rights, at least in two states. The dispute, according to school and police reports in Lakeland, Florida, started when a student and substitute teacher argued over the student’s refusal to take part in the pledge in class. The student was arrested after the dispute, police said. And the school district said, “To be clear, the student was NOT arrested for refusing to participate in the pledge; students are not required to participate in the Pledge of Allegiance.” The student’s mother told a local television station she wanted the charges dropped, and the school should be disciplined for its actions, and not her son. The story soon received national media attention. But lost in that attention is a debate about a seemingly settled constitutional precedent: the right of students to opt out of the pledge at public schools. In 1943, the Supreme Court ruled in West Virginia State Board of Education v. Barnette that “the Free Speech clause of the First Amendment prohibits public schools from forcing students to salute the American flag and say the Pledge of Allegiance.” "If there is any fixed star in our constitutional constellation, it is that no official, high or petty, can prescribe what shall be orthodox in politics, nationalism, religion, or other matters of opinion, or force citizens to confess by word or act their faith therein," said Justice Robert Jackson in his famous opinion. The National Constitution Center looked at the Pledge of Allegiance statutes or other guidance for all 50 states. In all, 32 states have laws or guidelines that specifically say students can opt of the pledge on their own. Another 15 states have statutes that are unclear, delegate the choice to local schools or parents, or seem to indicate students must take the pledge. And three states (Iowa, Vermont and Wyoming) don’t have state pledge laws.
In wake of January teachers strike, further attacks on public schools planned in Los Angeles -Details are emerging of how the Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD) intends to continue its assault on teachers in the wake of the teachers strike last month. United Teachers Los Angeles (UTLA) shut down the strike after six days on the basis of a rotten agreement that meets none of the main demands of teachers and facilitates the plans of LAUSD.Last week, the district released details of plans to restructure the nation’s second largest school district after repeated requests by the media and school board members who had been kept in the dark. Involving millions of dollars in payments to high-priced consulting outfits, the plans would break up the district into multiple local networks.Although the district denies any correlation, these plans are fully in line with the “portfolio model” announced by LAUSD superintendent Austin Beutner. Beutner is a former investment banker and State Department official under the Clinton administration in the1990s.Beutner’s portfolio model treats education assets strictly as private investment vehicles. University of Washington professor Paul Hill, who developed the idea in 2006, describes the operations of such schools. “School boards would closely manage their community’s portfolio of educational service offerings, divesting less productive schools and adding more promising ones,” Hill said. According to the details thus far released on the LAUSD’s privatization plans, approximately $1.5 million was provided to the consulting firm of Ernst & Young while $765,000 was provided to the Kitamba Group, another firm specializing in education policy.
Why is there no strike pay for Oakland teachers? --The teachers on strike in Oakland, California, are fighting for increased funding to public education, to secure a living wage, and to put an end to the privatization of schools. The Oakland Education Association, however, is not providing a penny in strike benefits to the embattled teachers even though union dues are regularly deducted from their paychecks. Historically, the provision of strike pay was one of the elemental tasks of unions, demanded by workers to offset the pressure of the employers starving workers into submission. Today, the OEA and its state and national affiliates are joining the school board in exerting economic pressure on teachers.In lieu of strike pay, the OEA is providing insulting “strike grants” and zero percent interest loans through a local credit union. The grants are needs-based, requiring OEA members to go through the humiliating process of proving their “need,” by submitting confidential financial paperwork. The amounts to be doled out are a meager $500, $1,000 or $1,500. Further, teachers can only apply for these grants if the strike extends for five days, at which point they will have lost nearly 3 percent of their annual pay.The Bay Area is one of the most expensive areas to live in the entire world. The median cost of rent for a two-bedroom apartment in Oakland is $2,950—a 75 percent increase since 2011—making Oakland the sixth most expensive city to live in the US. The pittance on offer by the OEA will leave teachers out to dry and place enormous pressure on them to return to work or leave their pickets to take on a second job during the strike.
Oakland teachers form rank-and-file strike committee as union keeps educators in the dark -The strike of Oakland, California teachers continued on Tuesday as teachers went to their picket lines in the morning before holding a two-mile march from Verdese Carter Park to Roots International Academy in East Oakland.To carry the struggle forward, Oakland teachers have announced the formation of a rank-and-file strike committee, independent of the pro-corporate unions and in opposition to all budget cuts, teacher layoffs, and school closures.A statement announcing the formation of the strike committee declares, “Whatever agreement the unions reach behind closed doors will not address the issues for which we are striking. The OEA (Oakland Education Association) has already declared that it accepts the district’s insistence that any gain for teachers will be offset by cuts to school programs and school closures. It has refused to make the fight against budget cuts part of the strike.”Oakland teachers, the statement continues, must oppose such a sellout and fight back. The rank-and-file strike committee “will be completely independent of the unions” and will “take up the fight for critical issues long abandoned by the unions, including opposing all budget cuts, teacher layoffs and school closings.” It will also be independent of both big-business parties and fight for the demands that teachers and their students need, including full funding for public education, not what school authorities and the state Democrats claim they can afford.The Oakland Rank-and-File Strike Committee Facebook group can be found here.
Fremont, California teachers stage sick-out --- On Tuesday, February 19, teachers in Fremont, California, who have been working without a contract for the entire 2018-2019 academic year, staged a sick-out. The wildcat work action, coming just two days before the start of the strike by 3,000 teachers in nearby Oakland, involved 50 out of 92 teachers at Mission San Jose High School. The sick-out has been blacked out in the local media, reflecting the fear within the ruling class and the political establishment that the renewed wave of teachers’ strikes—already including Los Angeles, Denver, West Virginia and Oakland—will spread further and escape the control of the pro-corporate trade unions. The only publication to report the work action was the student newspaper at Mission San Jose, the Smoke Signal. The Fremont Unified District Teachers Association (FUDTA) denounced the sick-out, underscoring its role as an instrument of the state to suppress the resistance of educators to the destruction of their living standards and public education itself. FUDTA President Victoria Birbeck posted a notice on the Fremont Teachers Facebook page stating: “2/3 of MSJHS teachers were absent today. This action was not a union-authorized nor union-organized event.” Teachers and other school staff have been kept largely in the dark about contract negotiations between the FUDTA and the Fremont Unified School District (FUSD). However, the school board recently posted an update revealing that the district is offering a paltry two percent raise for the 2018-2019 school year, up from an initial offer of 0.51 percent. Starting in 2019-2020, the FUSD proposes to tie any salary increases to increased employee pension costs, reducing future raises to a maximum of 1-2 percent per year. The FUDTA has rejected this offer, but its counteroffer is barely an improvement. FUDTA negotiators have proposed a raise of 4 percent for the current academic year, with future raises tied to a state-calculated cost of living adjustment (COLA), plus an additional one percent. Teachers, private and public, pay well over $1,000 per year in dues to either the NEA or the American Federation of Teachers (AFT). These organizations, however, are instrumental in enabling the two big-business parties to impose cuts in real wages, increased health care costs, increased pension contributions and the systematic undermining of conditions in the public schools. They accept and facilitate the privatization of education and spread of for-profit charter schools.
Oakland teachers continue strike as Kentucky teachers launch statewide sickout - As teachers in Oakland California begin their sixth day on strike, the wave of teachers struggles, begun in West Virginia a year ago, continues to expand across the United States.A rally of hundreds of teachers, parents and students on Wednesday afternoon shut down an Oakland Unified School District (OUSD) board meeting, which had been scheduled to discuss implementing $20.2 million in cuts to the 2019–2020 school budget. Despite the rain, the assembled parents and teachers held their ground for the afternoon, shutting down the meeting and preventing the intended budget cuts from being implemented.Today, a group of teachers from San Francisco and Berkeley are initiating a wildcat sickout in support of Oakland teachers and will be joining them on the picket lines. They have organized themselves independently of the unions, which have refused to organize broader action in support of the Oakland teachers.One of the organizers of the sickout, Lizzie, told the WSWS, “The reason I’m going out there is to show that their fight is our fight, to build this larger movement and to show teachers that it’s not just about the students in your classroom or your school, or even your district. All students everywhere are facing horrible learning conditions, and those are the same as our working conditions. That absolutely needs to change and quickly.
Teacher anger exploding across the United States -- Teacher strikes continue to escalate against a brutal drive by big business for the privatization of education and the further plundering of the “edu-market” for profit-taking. American teachers are part of a growing global movement against government austerity and social inequality. Now in the seventh day of their strike, 3,000 teachers in Oakland, California are in the forefront. Crucially, educators there have formed a rank-and-file strike committee to assert the interests of teachers independent of the union and fight to broaden their strike by reaching out statewide and nationally to prepare a general strike against the bipartisan attack on public education. Thousands of teachers in Kentucky carried out a sickout and demonstration at the state capitol in Frankfort to defend pensions, resuming the protests which they carried out last March and April of last year. That job action led to the cancellation of classes for 168,000 students in some of the state’s two largest school districts, Jefferson (Louisville) and Fayette (Lexington), and six others.While the Kentucky Education Association sought to subordinate the protest to its maneuvers with state Republicans and Democrats to retain its influence on the state pension board, teachers are not only angered over the attack on their retirement benefits but the same issues driving educators into struggle everywhere: low pay, underfunded schools and over-crowded classes. In a statement posted on the “KY 120 United Facebook Thursday morning, the group said, “We show up every day in the classroom with a lot of passion, but sadly passion will not substitute for our pension or our paycheck. It has been crystal clear for over a year that public education, teachers, and our public pensions are under attack. Enough is enough. This isn’t about just one bill but a series of events that have transpired over the past year."
The Rapid Victory of the West Virginia Teacher Strike Shows What Happens When Progressives Join the Fight Against School Privatization --West Virginia’s most recent statewide teacher walkout came and wentso quickly there was too little time and attention to comprehend and appreciate the impact the teachers’ actions will likely have long-term on changing the narrative of the teacher movement and how politically progressive advocates and candidates relate to it.In the very first day of the strike, teachers squelched new state legislationthey objected to and then held out an additional day to ensure it would die. The day after schools reopened, the teachers got what they wanted—a “clean” bill increasing teacher pay five percent.But, unlike their largely successful labor action from last year, this time the teachers weren’t making pocketbook issues the focal points of their demands. Instead, it was all about stopping school privatization through charter schools and a new voucher program. The point of the strike was to oppose a Senate bill that included bringing charters and a voucher program to the state even though the measure included the pay raise teachers wanted. Teachers accompanied their protestsin the capitol building with chants of “Hey-hey, ho-ho, charter schools have got to go.”This was a huge gamble for the teachers, not only because they risked a confrontation with the wealthy establishment that backs charters and vouchers but also because they could alienate the coalition of progressive activists who had supported teachers in the past but had never forcefully opposed charter schools. “There had been no widespread debate on charter schools in West Virginia until now,”
Sending Our Prisoners to College - Generally speaking, our correctional facilities do too little to prepare prisoners for theirlives beyond prison walls. Not surprisingly, recidivism rates are disturbingly high. An estimate from the Bureau of Justice Statistics indicates that almost three fifths of those released from prison will be convicted of a new offense within five years of their release. When prisoners do return to society, they are often ill-equipped to provide for, protect, and promote the prosperity of their progeny, leading to the further disintegration of the family unit. As millions of children and families have lost their loved ones to the walls of a jail or prison cell, we must be concerned with the criminal justice system’s ability to rebuild stronger families.Additionally, our prisons are expensive. We currently spend $182 billion annually on incarceration without a clear return on our investment. This poor investment then detracts from other priorities, such as health and education. No one should be shocked by these results; prisons are dehumanizing places that do not produce favorable outcomes for incarcerated individuals, families, or communities. If we want prisoners to treat others with human dignity when they re-enter society, we must practice these principles in our treatment of them. There will always be individuals behind bars, including those who have committed serious and violent offenses. But it is important to recognize that roughly 95 percent of state prisoners—who make up the majority of the imprisoned population—will one day be released into our neighborhoods. The question of how they spend their time behind bars, therefore, is vital. We have a choice to make: we can let incarcerated individuals sit behind bars—isolated and idle—or we can take steps to provide education to incarcerated individuals who, as a result, will be more employable, stable members of our society when they are released. The idea of educating incarcerated individuals has been met with strong opposition from those who question why Americans should be taxed so that those behind bars—who have done something wrong—receive a benefit. This sentiment led to the elimination of Pell Grants for prisoners in 1994. Without financial support from these grants, the number of postsecondary prison programs plummeted from 772 programs to just 8 within three years.
University of California boycotts publishing giant Elsevier over journal costs and open access - The mammoth University of California (UC) system announced today it will stop paying to subscribe to journals published by Elsevier, the world’s largest scientific publisher, headquartered in Amsterdam. Talks to renew a collective contract broke down, the university said, because Elsevier refused to strike a package deal that would provide a break on subscription fees and make all articles published by UC authors immediately free for readers worldwide.The stand by UC, which followed 8 months of negotiations, could have significant impacts on scientific communication and the direction of the so-called open-access movement, in the United States and beyond. The 10-campus system accounts for nearly 10% of all U.S. publishing output and is among the first U.S. institutions, and by far the largest, to boycott Elsevier over costs. Many administrators and librarians at U.S. universities and elsewhere have complained about what they view as excessively high journal subscription fees charged by commercial publishers. “It’s hard to overstate how big [UC’s move] is for us here in the U.S.,” says Heather Joseph, executive director of the Scholarly Publishing and Academic Resources Coalition, a Washington, D.C.–based group that advocates for open access. “This gives institutions that are on the fence about taking this kind of action a blueprint.”
ASU Law School Pushes Cities Around The World To Use Facial Recognition - Arizona State University (ASU) which spent $307 million to renovate Sun Devil Stadium has learned a lot about Smart City surveillance. ASU used facial recognition to spy on alumni, students, faculty and families. And now they want to share what they learned by bringing it to a stadium or city near you.An article in the Tech Republic revealed that Sun Devil Stadium and Croke Park in Ireland used facial recognition cameras to spy on fans."One of the technologies being tested in both Croke Park and at Sun Devil Stadium is facial recognition software, which will be used in conjunction with an additional 90 security cameras planned for ASUs stadium. Eventually the cameras will be 4K."Officials claim they are using facial recognition to see how fans react to standing in lines."The facial recognition technology will analyze data on how fans feel when they're stuck in lines around the stadium, and how they feel overall, based on their facial expressions, said Chris Richardson, assistant vice president of IT development at ASU. " This is the exact same thing that is happening in professional sports leagues. Last year, I warned everyone that sports teams are offering fans the option to use CLEAR's facial biometric scanners so they can skip concession lines.
Debt Among Millennials Rockets Past $1 Trillion -- Debt held by Americans aged 19 to 29-years-old exceeded $1 trillion at the end of last year, according to Bloomberg, citing the New York Federal Reserve Consumer Credit Panel. The debt load marks the highest exposure for the group since late 2007 at a time when younger adults under 35-years-old have decreased their spending compared to previous generations. A Friday University of Michigan survey determined that this was likely due to weakened job prospects, student loans and delayed marriage. With millennial consumers not consuming, several policies to boost young adult spending have begun to enter the political dialogue, such as student loan debt forgiveness, according to the director of the University of Michigan consumer survey, Richard Curtin. Student loans make up the majority of the $1,005,000,000,000 owed by this cohort, followed by mortgage debt. New mortgages among young adults today remain quite a bit below levels incurred in the early 2000s. This may suggest adults are waiting longer to buy homes and may opt to rent for a longer period of time than previous generations. –Bloomberg The lion's share of overall consumer debt is mortgage debt - however student loan debt, the second largest consumer debt segment, is growing much faster at a rate of 102% since 2009 vs. 3.2% for mortgages. Student loans are the second largest consumer debt segment and surpassed home equity revolving debt, auto loans and credit card debt balances shortly after the recession ended.At the end of last year, auto loans were the third largest portion of debt composition in the U.S. followed by credit card debt. Overall consumer debt reached a record $13.5 trillion. –Bloomberg Peak debt for more Americans occurs during mid-life years, and typically declines as people age. What's worrisome, according to the report, is that implied student loan debt delinquencies exceeding 90 days dwarfs other loan type categories. "Once a person is the subject of third party collections from their student loan delinquencies, their credit profile will be hindered for years. Missing a student loan repayment can also harm an individuals chances of getting a mortgage," notes Bloomberg. Student loans constitute around 40% of the total debt balance of 90+ day delinquencies for implied debt in arrears.
Facebook attacked over app that reveals period dates of its users - Facebook is battling fresh controversy on both sides of the Atlantic amid claims that it has been receiving highly personal data from third-party apps. The swirl of bad news around the company comes after its chief executive, Mark Zuckerberg, was criticised for meeting the culture secretary, Jeremy Wright, having refused to appear before an influential parliamentary committee in Westminster. The meeting came amid speculation that the government may soon publish a white paper potentially paving the way for an independent social media regulator. But the Observer has been told that a row is brewing over how the regulator should be funded. There are also questions over whether the media regulator, Ofcom, should oversee the new regulator or whether it should stand alone. On Friday, a Wall Street Journal investigation found that Facebook can receive information from numerous apps even if, in some cases, the user does not have a Facebook account. Of more than 70 popular apps tested by the Journal, it found at least 11 sent potentially sensitive information to Facebook. These included the Flo Period & Ovulation Tracker, which reportedly shared with Facebook when users were having their periods or when they were trying to become pregnant. Facebook said that it required apps to tell users what information was shared with it and that it “prohibits app developers from sending us sensitive data”. New York’s governor, Andrew Cuomo, called on its departments of state and financial services to “immediately investigate” what he called a clear invasion of consumer privacy. Last week, the UK parliament’s DCMS committee issued a scathing report calling for tougher privacy rules for Facebook and other tech firms. Zuckerberg has rejected the committee’s requests for him to appear before it.
Cancer’s Complications: Confusing Bills, Maddening Errors And Endless Phone Calls - Carol Marley, a hospital nurse with private insurance, says coping with the financial fallout of her pancreatic cancer has been exhausting. One example: An $18,400 chemotherapy bill submitted to an insurer with missing information and then denied because it arrived late. “It’s not any one individual. It’s not any one system or provider,” she says. “The whole system is messed up. … There’s no recourse for me except to just keep making phone calls.” (Anna Gorman/KHN)Carol Marley wants everyone to know what a life-threatening cancer diagnosis looks like in America today.Yes, it’s the chemotherapy that leaves you weak and unable to walk across the room. Yes, it’s the litany of tests and treatments — the CT scans and MRIs and biopsies and endoscopies and surgeries and blood draws and radiation and doctor visits. Yes, it’s envisioning your funeral that torments you day and night.But none of these is her most gnawing, ever-present concern.That would be the convoluted medical bills that fill multiple binders, depleted savings accounts that destroy early retirement plans, and so, so many phone calls with insurers and medical providers.“I have faith in God that that my cancer is not going to kill me,” said Marley, who lives in Round Rock, Texas. “I have a harder time believing that this is gonna get straightened out and isn’t gonna harm us financially. That’s the leap of faith that I’m struggling with.”Coping with the financial fallout of cancer is exhausting. And nerve-wracking. But the worst part, Marley said, is that it’s unexpected. When she was diagnosed with pancreatic cancer last summer, she didn’t anticipate so many bills, or so many billing mistakes. After all, she is a hospital nurse with good, private insurance that allowed her access to high-quality doctors and medical centers.Randall Marley, a computer systems engineer, said he frequently comes home from work to find his wife not feeling well and frustrated having spent a precious day of her recovery making phone calls to understand and dispute medical bills. One recent night she was in tears and “emotionally at a breaking point,” he said. “The hardest part of this is seeing the toll it’s taken on my wife.”
Sackler behind OxyContin fraud offered twisted, mind-boggling defense -Richard Sackler turned to verbal acrobatics and leaps in logic to try to dodge blame in the fraudulent marketing of Purdue’s potent opioid, OxyContin. The contorted explanations—which at points involved creating new definitions of words and claiming an enigmatic level of politeness—were first unveiled Thursday, February 21 from a sealed, 337-page deposition obtained by ProPublica. The deposition was taken in August of 2015 as part of lawsuit brought by the state of Kentucky, which alleged Purdue illegally promoted its potent opioid painkiller. Back in 2007, federal prosecutors made similar allegations against Purdue, resulting in the company and three executives pleading guilty to misleading doctors, regulators, and patients over OxyContin’s addictiveness. Numerous legal complaints have piled up against Purdue in the aftermath. Purdue settled many of them, including Kentucky’s, which it settled for $24 million. Yet in all the court battles, the mega-rich, secretive family behind Purdue, the Sacklers, have largely gone unscathed. In fact, the newly disclosed 2015 deposition is believed to be the only time a member of the Sackler family has been questioned over the fraudulent marketing.Last month, the public release of a complaint brought by the commonwealth of Massachusetts made waves as the first to allege that members of the Sackler family were directly involved in Purdue’s abhorrent marketing practices. Massachusetts alleges that Sacklers, particularly Richard, personally directed the expansion of Purdue’s sales force, relentlessly pushed for increased sales of their highly addictive opioid, encouraged obscuring the addictiveness, and suggested labeling those who became addicted as “reckless criminals,” among other things. Still, the 2015 deposition offers the first glimpse of a Sackler’s direct defense—and it’s mind-boggling.
American Opioids Deaths Have Quadrupled In 18 Years- The opioid crisis is the most significant public health issue affecting the US at the moment. Opioid-related deaths across the country have risen more than 4-fold in 18 years, from 2.9 per 100,000 people in 1999 to 13.2 per 100,000 people in 2016, according to a new report. More than 351,000 Americans have died of opioids between 1999 and 2016, according to the report published Friday by Mathew Kiang, ScD, Center for Population Health Sciences, Stanford University School of Medicine, and other researchers from the University of Toronto. Researchers showed that the highest concentration of opioid deaths is located in eight Eastern states: Connecticut, Illinois, Indiana, Massachusetts, Maryland, Maine, New Hampshire, and Ohio. "Although opioid-related mortality has been stereotyped as a rural, low-income phenomenon concentrated among Appalachian or midwestern states, it has spread rapidly, particularly among the eastern states. The increase in mortality has been driven primarily by synthetic opioids, which shows a distinct geographical patterning from east to west. Twenty-eight eastern states had synthetic opioid–related mortality rates that are at least doubling every 2 years, with half of those states experiencing a doubling in mortality rates every year. Of these 28 states, 12 had mortality rates from synthetic opioids greater than 10 per 100,000," the resaerchers note. The report warned the crisis has unfolded in three waves. The first wave started right before the Dot Com bust and ended around the 2008 financial crisis. The second wave formed around the time when the Federal Reserve started up the printing presses in 2009, was associated with a significant increase in heroin-related deaths. Then the third wave took over around 2015/16, involves a rapid rise in deaths related to synthetic opioids, such as fentanyl.Synthetic opioids are now contaminating other illegal drugs, such as designer drugs, cocaine, and methamphetamines. Researchers said opioid overdose deaths are occurring across a wide range of people, and in 2016 and 2017, a 26% increase in deaths were seen among the African American population. The crisis was so hard-hitting in 2016 that Americas' life expectancy declined .36 years. About 70,000 Americans died from drug overdoses in 2017, setting a new national record, the CDC reported in 2018.
Australia paying dearly for its drug abuse - Australians spend more on illegal drugs than they do on beauty, public transport, tea and coffee and electronic gadgets, according to tests of wastewater for traces of narcotics. The buzz kill: The nation is also the most costly worldwide in which to get and stay high. The Australian Criminal Intelligence Commission (ACIC) found in a recent study that Australians consumed 9.6 tons of methylamphetamine, four tons of cocaine, 1.1 tons of ecstasy (MDMA) and more than 700 kilograms of heroin in 2018, along with smaller quantities of nine other narcotic substances. Based on prevailing market prices for drugs, they spent an estimated A$9.3 billion (US$6.6 billion), the study found. “This is money people could be spending on legitimate goods for themselves and their families,” said ACIC chief executive Michael Phelan, noting that there was also high consumption of alcohol and nicotine in the country. The tests covered just 56% of the population, or about 13 million people, from August 2017 to August 2018. The actual figure is probably much higher. Studies by the central bank tracing distribution of banknotes estimate A$13.5 billion ($9.6 billion) was spent in 2016-17, of which almost 2% were used in drug deals. If so, households spent almost as much on drugs as they did on alcohol, more than they did on meat and almost the same amount as for personal care.
Spain Surpasses Italy To Become World's Healthiest Country - As the US struggles with declining life expectancy (as deaths from suicides, drug overdoses and other "deaths of despair" climb), rising infant mortality and ballooning health-care costs that preclude access to preventative care for millions of Americans - not to mention the attendant ills of rampant obesity and tobacco use), America has seen its position among the world's healthiest nations deteriorate, while, across the Atlantic, more European nations are claiming spots in the highest echelons of the global rankings. According to Bloomberg's 2019 World Health Rankings, Spain has supplanted Italy as the world's healthiest country. In the most ranking, published in 2017, Spain had placed sixth. Four other European nations ranked among the top 10 in 2019: Iceland (third place), Switzerland (fifth), Sweden (sixth) and Norway (ninth). Japan was the healthiest Asian nation, climbing three ranks to place fourth overall, and supplanting Singapore, which dropped to eighth. Rounding out the top ten were Australia and Israel, which ranked seventh and 10th, respectively. Variables including life expectancy are used to rank countries, while factors like tobacco use and obesity work against the overall ranking. Environmental factors like access to clean water and sanitation are also taken into consideration. Spain has the highest life expectancy at birth among European Union nations. Out of all 169 nations that BBG tracks, only Japan and Switzerland rank higher. By 2040, Spain is forecast to have the highest lifespan, at roughly 86 years, followed by Japan, Singapore and Switzerland.The reason? Access to primary care. "Primary care is essentially provided by public providers, specialized family doctors and staff nurses, who provide preventive services to children, women and elderly patients, and acute and chronic care," according to the European Observatory on Health Systems and Policies 2018 review of Spain. Over the past decade, this has helped bring about a decline in deaths from heart disease and cancer. While China ranked 52nd overall, it's on track to surpass the US by 2040, according to the Institute for health metrics and evaluation.In the Caribbean, Cuba placed highest at 30, making it the only developing nation to be ranked that high.In North America, Canada holds the highest ranking, placing 16th overall - that's well above the US and Mexico, which rank 35th and 53rd.
Growing Up Near Nature Is Good for Your Adult Mental Health, New Research Suggests --Having access to green spaces such as parks and forests as a child may be beneficial to your mental health later in life, new research out of Aarhus University in Denmark suggests. According to a study published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in the United States of America, Danish children who grew up with less greenery nearby from birth to age 10 were as much as 55 percent more at risk of developing a mental disorder later in life. Moreover, the researchers found that the risks actually decreased the longer children spent living close to nature — regardless of whether they lived in urban or rural areas."If you are surrounded by more green space consistently throughout childhood, you will have an even lower risk of having a psychiatric disorder," lead author Kristine Engemann, a postdoctoral fellow at Aarhus University, told Quartz.The researchers compiled demographic data from the Danish Civil Registration System of nearly 1 million Danish citizens and used satellite imagery from 1985 to 2013 to map the proximity of green space to their childhood homes. "Our data is unique," Engemann said in a press release. "We have had the opportunity to use a massive amount of data from Danish registers of, among other things, residential location and disease diagnoses and compare it with satellite images revealing the extent of green space surrounding each individual when growing up." Comparing the data revealed that people who grew up surrounded by nature had a significantly lower risk of developing one of 16 mental disorders, such as obsessive compulsive disorder or schizophrenia, later in life.For instance, subjects who grew up near green space had a 52 percent lower risk of developing substance abuse disorders overall, including a 55 percent decrease in risk for alcohol abuse, and a 40 percent lower risk of developing a neurotic, somatic or stress-related disorder, according to the study. In other words, the association between green space and mental health risks is about as strong as other established impacts on mental health, including socioeconomic status or history of mental health issues, Engemann told NPR, with the caveat that the study simply shows a strong correlation and not cause and effect.
Early Affluence Tied to Faster Cognitive Drop Late in Life - Childhood affluence was associated with faster rate of cognitive decline late in life in a longitudinal European study. Despite having higher levels of fluid intelligence in old age, people who grew up in the most advantaged circumstances experienced a decline in verbal fluency almost 1.6 times faster than people raised in the most disadvantaged circumstances, according to Marja Aartsen, PhD, of Oslo Metropolitan University in Norway, and colleagues. Faster cognitive decline for people with advantaged childhoods was less pronounced after controlling for adulthood socioeconomic conditions and current levels of physical activity, depressive symptoms, and partner status, the team wrote in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. "Although counterintuitive at first sight, it fits to theories about cognitive reserve," Aartsen told MedPage Today. "People with an advantaged childhood develop larger brain reserves throughout their life, which helps to repair neuronal losses in later life and postpones cognitive decline until the underlying cognitive pathology is substantial and speed of decline accelerated."
Shock rise in global measles outbreaks 'disastrous' for children, UN warns - Cases of childhood measles are surging to shocking levels around the globe, led by 10 countries that account for three-quarters of the rise. Amid warnings of “disastrous consequences” for children if the disease continues to spread unchecked, a worldwide survey by the UN children’s agency, Unicef, said 98 countries around the globe reported a rise in measles cases in 2018 compared with 2017. That total includes a number of countries that had previously eradicated the disease. The increases were noted not only in countries affected by serious conflict, where access to vaccination has been disrupted, but also in states that have experienced an increase in “vaccine hesitancy” because of misinformation spread by anti-vaccination advocates. Highly contagious, measles spreads more easily than Ebola, tuberculosis or influenza, infecting the respiratory tract. It is potentially fatal to malnourished children and babies too young to be vaccinated. In addition, once infected, there is no specific treatment for measles, making vaccination a life-saving tool. Among the 10 countries worst affected, Ukraine, the Philippines and Brazil experienced the greatest increases in measles cases. Last year, Ukraine recorded 35,120 cases of measles ; the disease has claimed 30 lives in thee country since 2017. Western Ukraine, where attitudes to vaccination have led to low rates of immunisation and vaccines are in short supply, was worst hit. According to the government, a further 24,042 people have been infected in the first two months of 2019 alone. In the Philippines, 12,736 measles cases and 203 deaths have been recorded so far this year, compared with 15,599 cases in the whole of 2018.
Measles in Europe- Record number of sick and immunised people - More children are being vaccinated against measles in Europe; progress has been uneven between and within countries, leaving increasing clusters of susceptible individuals unprotected This resulted in a record number of people affected by the virus in 2018.In light of measles data for the year 2018 released, WHO urges European countries to target their interventions to those places and groups where immunisation gaps persist.Measles killed 72 children and adults in the European Region in 2018. According to monthly country reports for January to December 2018, 82,596 people in 47 of 53 countries contracted measles.In countries reporting hospitalisation data, nearly two thirds (61%) of measles cases were hospitalised. The total number of people infected with the virus in 2018 was the highest this decade: 3 times the total reported in 2017 and 15 times the record low number of people affected in 2016.The surge in measles cases in 2018 followed a year in which the European Region achieved its highest ever estimated coverage for the second dose of measles vaccination (90% in 2017). More children in the European Region received the full two-dose series on time, according to their countries’ immunization schedules, in 2017 than in any year since WHO started collecting data on the second dose in 2000. Coverage with the first dose of the vaccine also increased slightly to 95%, the highest level since 2013. However, progress in the Region, based on achievements at the national level, can mask gaps at subnational levels, which are often not recognized until outbreaks occur.
French boy suspected of reintroducing measles to Costa Rica - An unvaccinated French child who went on holiday with his parents to Costa Rica is suspected of reintroducing measles to the Central American country.The 5-year-old boy and his parents entered the country on February 18, Costa Rica's Health Ministry said. Authorities have quarantined the boy in a hospital and are searching for people he may have come into contact with since his arrival. Costa Rica, which last reported a case of measles in 2014, has also notified France to probe whether anyone the boy met there could also be infected. The highly infectious airborne disease is caused by a virus and can be deadly in extreme cases. Its symptoms include rashes and a severe fever. Measles vaccine prevented an estimated 21.1 million deaths worldwide from 2000 to 2017, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). Despite its effectiveness, some people have questioned the need for the vaccine and alleged that it harms children who receive it. Europe has recently seen a surge in reported measles cases. WHO figures show that the total number of cases registered in the first half of 2018 was higher than in the previous five years combined.
Unnatural DNA just changed genetics forever - Synthetic sequences of DNA were proven viable in a study published this week by researchers led by one Steven Benner. Benner is founder of the Foundation for Applied Molecular Evolution in Alachua, Floria. This study suggests that synthetic DNA with “unnatural” bases behaves much like strings of natural DNA – blasting open the realm of possibilities for chemical bonds in DNA outside our basic understanding in G, C, A, and T.The new study includes four more letters, or bases, more than those of guanine, cytosine, adenine and thymine, or G, C, A, and T. While this is not the first time scientists have tried to jam their own unnatural DNA bases into the mix, this is the first time it’s been done successfully. This is the first time that bases other than those considered “natural” have been successfully proven to be able to recognize and bind to each other.This is the first time it’s been systematically proven that the double helix formed with these unnatural base bonds can hold their structure. The newest base combinations include S and B as well as P and Z. Eight bases, four orthogonal pairs, and a whole new set of synthetic systems that “meet the structural requirements needed to support Darwinian evolution.”
'We're in hospitals every day': Nearly Half of FDNY First Responders Have a WTC Illness- Nearly half of the 15,000 FDNY firefighters, officers and medics who were working on 9/11 — and survived — have gotten sick from their exposure to the toxins that swirled around the World Trade center site, union officials said Friday. “We’re in hospitals every day and see dead firemen on a regular basis who have succumbed to very serious, very rare cancers,” said Uniformed Firefighters Association Staten Island Trustee Eric Bischoff, who is also battling a cancer connected to his time working at Ground Zero. “We have thousands of firefighters that have all different forms of cancers, and many that are far more sick than I.” Bischoff declined to discuss the exact nature of his illness, but said he feels “quite fortunate” compared to some others. Dozens of UFA members plan to travel to Washington D.C. next week to join other 9/11 survivor advocates in demanding congress extend and maintain the federal 9/11 Victim Compensation Fund, which gives out financial awards to those suffering from 9/11 illnesses and families who have lost loved ones as a result. Fund Special Master Rupa Bhattacharyya announced last week that those currently applying for federal compensation will see roughly half of the money other survivors received a few years earlier. Those who applied after Feb. 1 are expected to receive about 70% less than what was first given out when the fund was created. So many people have applied for compensation that the $7.3 billion fund established four years ago is running out of money. There is only about $2 billion left, which has to be spread out to those seeking help before the 2020 deadline, officials said. UFA President Gerard Fitzgerald said union members will be targeting lawmakers from across the nation, encouraging them to sign onto a bill that will extend the fund. Practically every state in the nation has a 9/11 survivor suffering an illness, Fitzgerald said. Some 11,000 people were employed by the FDNY when terrorists flew two jumbo jets into the World Trade Center on 9/11.
Flint water crisis claims its youngest Legionnaires’ victim to date --The funeral for one of the youngest victims of Legionnaires’ disease was held Sunday in Flint, Michigan. Jassmine McBride, only 30 years old, contracted the deadly lung disease at the height of the Flint water crisis in 2014. Her death brings the total to 13 people who have died from it. The disease infected at least 90 people. During a routine visit to McLaren Flint Hospital to treat diabetes in August 2014, when Jassmine was just 26 years old, she was diagnosed with Legionnaires’ disease. According to a local news report at the time, Jassmine’s mother Jacqueline was devastated and shocked: “The hospital called and said, ‘Do we have permission to resuscitate your daughter?’ I couldn’t understand what happened. She just went to get an iron supplement.” The bacteria had attacked her lungs, leaving her with very little ability to take in sufficient oxygen to live. At that time, Jassmine spent two months heavily sedated in the intensive care unit. Her life was changed forever. Before contracting Legionnaires’, she was a young woman who was active in the band at Central High School, loved to dance and enjoyed singing in her church choir. Although she became unable to physically attend college, she was a determined young woman and began taking online classes to become a medical biller. Before her death, she was permanently tied to an oxygen tank and home-bound. Jassmine was the victim of the largest public health disaster in American history. The poisoning of residents and its cover-up was set into motion by the deliberate policies of Democratic and Republican politicians at all levels of government. Corrosion control chemicals were not added to the antiquated water treatment plant. The untreated water not only poisoned the population with lead, but it also contributed to two significant spikes of Legionnaires’ disease, in June 2014 and May 2015. The failure to properly treat the water created ideal growth conditions for the deadly legionella bacteria.
Federal Data Show Decline in EPA Enforcement Leading to Public Health Hazards - On February 8, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released its annual summary of the actions it took in the 2018 fiscal year to enforce federal laws that protect public health and the quality of our air and water.1 These annual reports measure the enforcement program’s success in making polluters pay for violations of environmental laws and assume responsibility for cleanup. The latest release shows that in fiscal year 2018, the number of EPA enforcement actions and their environmental value declined to their lowest levels in many years. In some cases, these declines perpetuate a long-term trend driven in part by the enforcement program’s shrinking budget. The EPA report shows that enforcement actions fell sharply last fiscal year. The Environmental Integrity Project compared the federal data from last year2 to two decades of past EPA reports, as well as federal court records and other documents, to reach several conclusions:
- EPA in 2018 completed 10,612 inspections or evaluations to determine compliance with environmental laws, less than 60 percent of the annual average since 2001.
- For the most part, EPA refers the worst violators to the U.S. Department of Justice for civil prosecution. EPA sent 123 such cases to the Justice Department in fiscal year 2018, up slightly from 2017 but far below prior years.
- Chart shows a decline in EPA inspections and evaluations by almost half over a decade, falling to 10,612 in fiscal 2018 from 20,030 in 2008. Fewer inspections means less information is gathered for environmental enforcement.
- Where a polluter’s violations appear intentional, EPA will work with the Justice Department or U.S. District Attorneys to bring criminal prosecution that can result in jail time or steep fines for the guilty parties. EPA reports opening 129 criminal cases in 2018. That was slightly more than the previous year, but only about a third of the levels reported between 2008 and 2013. The number of new criminal cases has declined sharply since 2013.
- EPA recovered $69.5 million in total civil penalties in fiscal 2018, the lowest in both actual and inflation-adjusted dollars since at least 1994. EPA is expected to recover civil penalties or criminal fines to sanction the most serious violations, discourage future noncompliance, and recover any economic gains a violator might realize by avoiding spending on pollution controls.
A Dangerous Herbicide Found In Beer - New research has found that a number of significant beer and wine brands are contaminated with glyphosate, the main ingredient in the weed killer Roundup. Not great news given that the World Health Organization found glyphosate to be a probable carcinogen in 2015, and in 2017 the state of California agreed. According to US PIRG there is ample reason for concern… “In 2018, a jury in California found that Roundup was a major cause of a man’s cancer, and awarded him $78 million in damages.” “Thousands of other people, mostly farmers, are now alleging that their incurable cancers may have been caused by Roundup. And in January 2019, France banned the use of Roundup, citing it as a “serious risk” to human health. Other countries in the EU are considering similar bans.” To explore how much Roundup we might be drinking US PIRG tested five wines and 15 beers. The wine brands tested included big names such as Beringer, Barefoot and Sutter Home. The beer brands tested included majors like Budweiser, Coors, Miller Lite, Heineken and Guinness, and widely distributed craft brands like Samuel Adams, Sierra Nevada, and New Belgium. And the sobering results was that the weed killer glyphosate was found in almost all of the products tested including 14 of the 15 beers.
Toxic Weed Killer Found in Almost All Beer and Wine Brands (Including Organic) — Most of the food that we eat makes a long and tortuous journey to our tables, often over great distances or from unknown origins.Whether it’s factory-farmed eggs, processed chicken, fresh fruit from the west coast, seafood from the east coast, or a glass of wine or ice-cold beer, we often assume that what we’re eating is generally healthy or at least won’t harm us if enjoyed in moderation.However, a new report by public-interest watchdog group U.S. PIRG has revealed that most of the top beers and wines in the United States are contaminated with glyphosate, the main ingredient in Monsanto’s weed killer, Roundup.Roundup is a controversial herbicide that has been linked to cancer and other health problems in studies by the World Health Organization and the State of California, among others. In recent years, thousands of people have blamed Monsanto for being a key contributor to their cancer, leading to calls across the world for the weed-killer to be banned.The advocacy group tested five wines and fifteen beers. The beer brands tested included top-sellers Budweiser, Coors, Miller Lite, Sam Adams, Samuel Smith Organic, and New Belgium. The wine brands tested included Beringer, Barefoot and Sutter Home.Out of the 20 brands tested, glyphosate was found in 19 of them – including in 3 out of 4 organic beers and wines.Among the beverages with the highest concentration of glyphosate was 2018 Sutter Home Merlot at 51.4 parts per billion (pbb) and Tsingtao, a beer from China, with 49.7 pbb – a rather high level when compared with the U.S. beer with the largest amount, which was Coors Light at 31.1 pbb.Organic beverages like 2016 Inkarri Malbec lagged behind at 5.3 pbb while 2017 Samuel Smith Lager had 5.7 pbb. In a statement, organic winery Frey Vineyards noted that while it refrains from the use of both herbicides and pesticides, “glyphosate in trace amounts is now found in rainwater because of its application to conventionally farmed agricultural land. Glyphosate in trace amounts can be found in many food products across the United States. We urge consumers to speak up to ban all use of glyphosate.”
Glyphosate Found in 19 of 20 Beers and Wines Tested - Glyphosate—the active ingredient in Monsanto's Roundup weedkiller that some studies have linked to cancer—is also a secret ingredient in nearly 20 popular beers and wines. That's the finding of a new study from the education group U.S. PIRG, which found glyphosate in 19 of 20 wine and beer brands tested, including organic labels and brews.The release of the study coincides with the beginning of the first federal trial against Monsanto and its new parent company Bayer over whether Roundup use caused a plaintiff's cancer, USA Today reported Monday."With a federal court looking at the connection between Roundup and cancer today, we believe this is the perfect time to shine a spotlight on glyphosate," study author and U.S. PIRG Toxic's Director Kara Cook-Schultz told USA Today. "This chemical could prove a true risk to so many Americans' health, and they should know that it is everywhere – including in many of their favorite drinks." The drink with the highest glyphosate concentration was Sutter Home Merlot, at 51.4 parts per billion (ppb). Popular beer brands like Coors Light, Miller Lite and Budweiser all had concentrations above 25 ppb. The full results of the study, from highest to lowest glyphosate concentration in ppb, are listed below.
Wines:
- Sutter Home Merlot: 51.4 ppb
- Beringer Founders Estates Moscato: 42.6 ppb
- Barefoot Cabernet Sauvignon: 36.3 ppb
- Inkarri Malbec, Certified Organic: 5.3 ppb
- Frey Organic Natural White: 4.8 ppb
Beers
- Tsingtao Beer: 49.7 ppb
- Coors Light: 31.1 ppb
- Miller Lite: 29.8 ppb
- Budweiser: 27.0 ppb
- Corona Extra: 25.1 ppb
- Heineken: 20.9 ppb
- Guinness Draught: 20.3 ppb
- Stella Artois: 18.7 ppb
- Ace Perry Hard Cider: 14.5 ppb
- Sierra Nevada Pale Ale: 11.8 ppb
- New Belgium Fat Tire Amber Ale: 11.2 ppb
- Sam Adams New England IPA: 11.0 ppb
- Stella Artois Cidre: 9.1 ppb
- Samuel Smith's Organic Lager: 5.7 ppb
The only beverage tested that contained no glyphosate was Peak Beer Organic IPA. The amounts found were far below the safety limits for glyphosate set by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), as Bayer toxicologist William Reeves told CBS News via a spokesperson.
The herbicide glyphosate persists in wild, edible plants: B.C. study - When herbicides are sprayed by plane, the spray can deliver non-lethal doses of glyphosate to nearby "non-target plants." Edible and medicinal forest plants that survive aerial spraying of glyphosate can retain the herbicide and related residues for at least a year, a new study has found. “The highest and most consistent levels of glyphosate and AMPA (aminomethylphosphonic acid) were found in herbaceous perennial root tissues, but shoot tissues and fruit were also shown to contain glyphosate in select species,” according the study published in the Canadian Journal of Forest Research. Herbicides containing glyphosate are used by forest companies to kill aspen and other broadleaf plants in areas that have been logged and replanted with trees of commercial value such as Douglas fir and pine, according to the Ministry of Forests. When herbicides are sprayed by aircraft, the spray can deliver non-lethal doses of glyphosate to nearby “non-target plants,” some of which may store the compound indefinitely or break it down very slowly, said author Lisa Wood, a registered professional forester and assistant professor of forest ecology at the University of Northern B.C. Wood found unexpected levels of glyphosate in new shoots and berries of plants that survived an aerial herbicide application made one year earlier. These findings raise concerns about forage plants used extensively by First Nations in northern B.C. where most spraying occurs, she said. The 10 species tested were selected for their importance as traditional-use plants, because some First Nations had expressed concerns about the long-term effects of glyphosate on wild plants, said Wood.
Abandoned Plantations Within Forests May Never Fully Recover - In the past century, large parts of wet evergreen forest in what is now Kalakad-Mundanthurai Tiger Reserve (KMTR) in Tamil Nadu state were cleared to make way for plantations including tea, coffee and cardamom. Vast forested areas were also felled for eucalyptus plantations, with the timber mainly to be used as fuelwood for the tea industry. However, with the establishment of KMTR in 1988 and a subsequent logging ban, many plantations were eventually abandoned and the area has been on a path of recovery ever since. Some plantations have now been regenerating for nearly 40 years. In 2016, Ashish Nerlekar, lead author of the study published in the Journal of Tropical Ecology and a doctoral student at Texas A&M University, looked at one such eucalyptus plantation in KMTR with his colleagues. The plantation had been abandoned for 36 years as of 2016, and was surrounded by primary, old-growth forest. "Because it's the Western Ghats and because there has not been any major disturbance after abandonment, I thought the plantation would be very close to the primary forest," Nerlekar said. "I was expecting some degree of structural resemblance in terms of species richness and so on. I was also expecting to see at least 20 to 30 percent of the trees characteristic of the primary forest in the plantations." But as it turned out, this wasn't the case. The researchers found that from 2005, when the plantation was first studied in detail, to 2016, the number of tree species increased by 67 percent, giving it a similar degree of species richness as the adjoining primary forest. But the kinds of trees growing in the plantation were very different from the ones growing in the primary forest. Trees like wild durian (Cullenia exarillata) and palai (Palaquium ellipticum), for instance, which are characteristic of the old-growth evergreen forest in KMTR, were rarely found in the plantation. Instead, the plantation was dominated by small-seeded, bird-dispersed tree species, such as the hill glory bower (Clerodendrum infortunatum) and Wight's litsea (Litsea wightiana). "One of the most surprising findings was that even after 36 years, the abandoned plantation patches don't resemble the neighboring forest in terms of structure and function," It makes one wonder, how long would it really take to undo the changes caused by human activities?"
China is rushing facial and voice recognition tech for pigs. Here’s why. -- In China, technology firms are working with the government to push voice and facial recognition to help pigs, many of which have been dying from a swine disease that's sweeping the country. African swine fever has spread quickly through China in recent weeks, affecting the world’s top pork producer and the reliability of supply for other nations.Today, the government announced plans to divide its hog industry into five zones in an attempt to halt the swine fever's spread. More on facial and voice recognition technology in the China swine story, from China’s Tech Firms Are Mapping Pig Faces in the New York Times: Chinese companies are pushing facial and voice recognition and other advanced technologies as ways to protect the country’s pigs. In this Year of the Pig, many Chinese hogs are dying from a deadly swine disease, threatening the country’s supply of pork, a staple of Chinese dinner tables. So China’s ebullient technology sector is applying the same techniques it has used to transform Chinese life — and, more darkly, that the Chinese government increasingly uses to spy on its own people — to make sure its pigs are in the pink of health. “If they are not happy, and not eating well, in some cases you can predict whether the pig is sick,” said Jackson He, chief executive officer of Yingzi Technology, a small firm based in the southern city of Guangzhou that has introduced its vision of a “future pig farm” with facial and voice recognition technologies. Alibaba, the e-commerce giant, and JD.com, its rival, are using cameras to track pigs’ faces. Alibaba also uses voice-recognition software to monitor their coughs. Many in China are quick to embrace high-tech solutions to just about any problem. A digital revolution has transformed China into a place where nearly anything — financial services, spicy takeout, manicures and dog grooming, to name a few — can be summoned with a smartphone. Facial recognition has been deployed in public bathrooms to dispense toilet paper, in train stations to apprehend criminals and in housing complexes to open doors.
Watchdog permits 170,000 wild bird killings in five years --The government’s conservation watchdog has issued licences to destroy 170,000 wild birds, eggs and nests, including rare and declining species such as curlews and swifts, in the past five years.Natural England has given permission to kill birds of more than 70 species, or have their nests and eggs destroyed. These include peregrine falcons, barn owls, buzzards and red kites, alongside garden favourites such as robins, blackbirds and blue tits. A licence was even issued to destroy a wrens’ nest to “preserve public safety” in South Yorkshire.All wild birds and their nests are protected under wildlife laws but licences can be sought to kill wild birds and destroy nests if birds are found to be seriously damaging farming, fishing and forestry interests or endangering people’s health and safety. The most targeted species is the greylag goose, with licences issued to kill 67,586 individual geese or destroy their eggs or nests. Reasons given under wildlife laws include damage to newly planted trees, damage to crops and on the grounds of “preserving public health”. One single licence for an unnamed applicant in Buckinghamshire permitted the destruction of up to 1,600 greylag goose eggs.Cormorants were targeted by more licences than any other bird, with more than 2,000 licences issued – mainly to angling and fishing interests – to kill 12,033 birds.Licences were issued in relation to 21,939 mallards over the five-year period and 16,052 herring gulls, a species which is in long-term decline. Between 2014 and 2018, Natural England also issued licences against 329 buzzards, 223 kestrels and 44 red kites.In Wiltshire, a licence was issued to destroy 300 mute swans’ eggs to prevent “serious damage to growing timber”.
Vaquita Still Doomed Without Further Disruption of Totoaba Cartels --My organization, the Elephant Action League (EAL), spent 14 months investigating and infiltrating the illicit totoaba swim bladder supply chain, from Baja California in Mexico to Southern China. We released a public report on what we called Operation Fake Gold in July 2018. Since then, we have continued to submit intelligence to Mexican, U.S. and Chinese authorities in order to facilitate disruption of the totoaba supply chain. As a result, further review of the situation surrounding the totoaba trade and its effect on the extinction of the vaquita is warranted.According to various sources in the Sea of Cortez, the price of raw totoaba swim bladder in Baja California is currently about $2,500 per bladder. This is down from highs of $5,000 to $8,000 per bladder in past years. Although this is a positive and promising development, a development that needs to continue and be supported, it is relatively unnoticed and undervalued by the media, other NGOs and government agencies currently trying to save the vaquita. A reduction in profit for the Totoaba Cartels is an important key to ending totoaba poaching in the Sea of Cortez. More importantly, according to our sources on the ground in Baja California, recent arrests of totoaba traffickers in China and pressure on the Chinese traders in Mexico are beginning to have an effect on the supply chain. Illegal fishermen in Baja have started complaining about a lack of income from the trade. The fishermen claim that the Chinese traders in Mexico are becoming fearful of the possibility of arrest and much less money is flowing to their shores. They are saying that it is not worth the effort and possible danger associated with setting new illegal gillnets — the same nets that kill vaquita and other important marine life — to poach totoaba.
Toledo Residents Vote to Recognize Personhood for Lake Erie - Last night, residents of Toledo, Ohio voted in favor of a major breakthrough for the “Rights of Nature” movement. Recognizing legally-enforceable rights for the natural world, the Lake Erie Bill of Rights passedwith 61.4 percent of the vote. Since making it to the February Special Election ballot, the groundbreaking city charter amendment has made national and international news, appearing in The New York Times, CNN, Mother Jones, Bloomberg, as well as The Guardian, Canada’s CBC and the French paper Le Monde. “An Ohio city will vote on whether Lake Erie has the same rights as a person,” read the CNN headline.Though the Rights of Nature movement has enjoyed sporadic media attention for its gains made in New Zealand, Ecuador, Bolivia, India, and elsewhere, never before has Rights of Nature organizing by non-indigenous residents of the United States gained this level of attention. Following yesterday’s vote, Markie Miller of Toledoans for Safe Water said in a statement: “We’ve been using the same laws for decades to try and protect Lake Erie. They’re clearly not working. Beginning today, with this historic vote, the people of Toledo and our allies are ushering in a new era of environmental rights by securing the rights of the Great Lake Erie.” The amendment recognizes rights to “exist, flourish, and naturally evolve” for Lake Erie, and rights to a “clean and healthy Lake Erie and Lake Erie ecosystem” for residents of Toledo. To enforce the rights, local residents are given standing in court to sue corporate polluters on behalf of the lake, and to seek legal damages—which would go toward a city fund to clean up the lake. Yesterday’s vote came just over two weeks after the the White Earth Band of Ojibwe (part of the Minnesota Chippewa Tribe) passed a law recognizing the legal rights of a species of wild rice. They had assistance from the same law firm that worked with local residents in Toledo, the Community Environmental Legal Defense Fund.
Massive Windstorm Spawns Ice Tsunami On Lake Erie - An ice tsunami was spawned on Lake Erie by a massive windstorm which has resulted in the loss of power for thousands in the area. The ice storm took place Sunday across parts of New York and along Lake Erie, pushing large chunks of ice along lakeshore areas. Chunks of ice stacked up along the Niagara River Parkway along the lake forced the roadway to be closed in some sections after the ice tsunami hit. Ice mounds between 25 and 30 feet high could be seen in photos approaching people’s homes. Twitter users shared their accounts of what this ice tsunami looked like, and it is eerie.This ice tsunami is one of the craziest things I've ever witnessed. Starting to bulldoze trees and street lamps. #onstorm #onwx #forterie #windstorm #windstorm2019 #seiche #iceshove #icetsunami @ReedTimmerAccu @NWSBUFFALO @EC_ONweather @weathernetwork pic.twitter.com/SHj8jXCDqI— David Piano (@ONwxchaser) February 24, 2019According to a report by Fox News, The National Weather Service in Buffalo warned that winds along neighboring Lake Ontario could reach 75 mph, causing “extensive damage to trees and power lines, widespread power outages, and property damage to roofs and siding. This is a particularly dangerous situation! If you must travel be prepared for extensive damage and downed power lines,” the agency said. The ice tsunami along the Hoover Beach area of Hamburg, New York spurred a voluntary evacuation for residents there. “Residents in Hoover Beach can expect the Woodlawn FD to come door to door accounting for residents,” town officials said in a Facebook post. The weather system had also generated the strong winds that toppled trees and fallen branches which took out power lines across the region Sunday and into Monday as winds gusted to 60 mph or higher.
One of the strongest Arctic outbreaks of winter is ready to surge into the Lower 48 in early March - If the forecasts for first week of March are verified, the groundhog may have to go into hiding over its early February prediction of an early spring. One of the coldest weeks of the winter season, compared to normal, is on its way. At peak, it will feel more like midwinter than early spring for much of the Lower 48. “The most unusually cold air in the Northern Hemisphere is set to nose-dive into the U.S. to start March,” tweeted Ben Noll, an atmospheric scientist based overseas. What that means on the ground is that large portions of the north-central U.S. could struggle to get above zero, with widespread nighttime lows in the minus-10 to minus-20 range a decent bet in that region. It’s also possible that every state except perhaps Georgia, South Carolina and Florida will face high temperatures at or below freezing during the stretch. This morning, DTN Weather, a provider of data and forecasts, highlighted the widespread nature of the massive cold snap slated to enter the Lower 48 as March gets going. Cold air that has been focused across the High Plains this week will begin to spill further south and east to kick off the beginning of March. Temperatures will run 20-30 degrees below normal in spots. locations seem likely to end up even colder than 30 degrees below normal. While the forecast highlighted above is still at a range where confidence in details remains on the low side, it is also very impressive for a five-day average, one that will smooth some of the extremes seen during shorter time scales. Around March 4 or 5, there could be a day or two with temperatures 20 to 40 degrees below normal encompassing about one-third of the country, from Montana to Wisconsin in the north and then sweeping south across most of the central United States between the Rockies and Mississippi River. The cold ultimately makes it to the Mexico border with Texas and into the Gulf of Mexico.
Biggest Public Lands Bill in 10 + Years Clears Congress, Protecting More Than 1.3 Million Acres of Wilderness - The U.S. House of Representatives voted 363-62 to pass the Natural Resources Management Act Tuesday, which means the biggest public lands bill in more than a decade has now passed both houses of Congresswith bipartisan support."This bill represents Congress at its best and truly gives the American people something to be excited about," House Natural Resources Committee Chair and Arizona Democrat Raúl M. Grijalva in a press release. "It's a massive win for the present and future of American conservation. Everyone from inner cities to suburbs to rural communities wins when we work together to preserve the outdoors."The bill designates more than 1.3 million acres as wilderness, permanently authorizes the Land and Water Conservation Fund to pay for conservation measures using money from offshore oil and gas drilling and demonstrates a renewed commitment on the part of both parties to protect the public lands widely loved by their constituents, National Geographic reported."It's rare to see Congress act in an overwhelmingly bipartisan manner, but today reminds everyone that the protection of our public lands isn't a red or blue issue, it's an American one," Sierra Club Executive Director Michael Brune said in a press release. Here are some of the other key achievements of the bill, according to the Associated Press and the House Natural Resources Committee:
In Era of Drought, Phoenix Prepares for a Future Without Colorado River Water - These days, Phoenix’s alternative water supplies are not dependent on the Colorado. “We are fully prepared to go into Tier 1, 2, and 3 emergency,” said Kathryn Sorensen, Phoenix’s water services director, referring to federally mandated cutbacks of Colorado River water as the levels of Lake Mead, the source of some of the city’s water, continue to drop. And what of the dreaded “dead pool,” the point at which the level in the giant man-made lake falls so low that water can no longer be pumped out? “I can survive dead pool for generations,” says Sorensen, pointing to a host of conservation and water storage measures that have significantly brightened the city’s water outlook in an era of climate change and drought. But there’s a caveat. Phoenix may have enough water to secure its near-term future, but it still needs to build $500 million of infrastructure to pipe it to northern parts of the city that now rely on Colorado River water. And Phoenix may need the water sooner than it planned. “You could hit dead pool in four years,” Sorensen said. “That’s worst case.” Many cities and towns in the Southwest — including Los Angeles, San Diego, and Albuquerque — are trying to figure out solutions to a dwindling Lake Mead, the key reservoir on the Colorado. One of the most ambitious efforts is a new $1.35 billion, 24-foot-wide tunnel — the so-called Third Straw — that Las Vegas drilled at the very bottom of Lake Mead to function like a bathtub drain. Las Vegas gets 90 percent of its water from the Colorado via the lake, which is located just east of the gambling and tourist mecca. In 2000, as the lake’s level dropped, the city placed a second, deeper straw to replace the original outtake. As the region moved into its second consecutive decade of drought and lake levels continued to drop, Las Vegas officials got more nervous and the third straw was completed in 2015; it should continue to siphon off water unless the lake dries up completely.
Thousands Evacuated in Northern California Ahead of Worst Flooding in More Than 20 Years - Around 4,000 people were ordered to evacuate from a town about 60 miles north of San Francisco Tuesday night, as heavy rain and snow is expected to raise a river to flood levels not seen since 1995, The Sacramento Bee reported. "Evacuate now if you live near the Russian River," the Sonoma County Sheriff's Office urged, according toAccuWeather. The Russia River in Guerneville had already reached 32 feet by 6 p.m. Tuesday and is expected to hit 46 feet by Wednesday evening, The Sacramento Bee reported. "If it gets to 46 feet, it's done. There is no way to prepare for that," the manager of the one-story River Inn Grill Andre Vazquez told The Sacramento Bee. He said the restaurant would be submerged if water levels reached that point.The flooding comes due to a wet, slow weather event called an atmospheric river storm, The Mercury News reported."It's pretty serious," Sacramento National Weather Service (NWS) hydrologist Peter Fickenscher told The Mercury News. "We consider this a major flood. There will be numerous impacts. It's a rare event. The rainfall has been very focused and concentrated right through the Russian River basin. It has been non-stop rain for 24 hours and it will continue overnight into Wednesday." In addition to Guerneville, evacuations had been ordered in Mendocino County in the Ukiah Valley and Hopland areas, where the Russia River was expected to begin flooding low elevations by 7 p.m. Tuesday and reach its highest levels by 1 a.m. Wednesday.
PG&E repeatedly delayed safety work on suspected power line- WSJ - Embattled PG&E Corp. PCG reportedly delayed safety work on a century-old high-voltage transmission line that is the main suspect behind the deadliest wildfire in California's history. The electric and gas company told regulators in 2013 it intended to replace much of the infrastructure, including towers and wires on the so-called Caribou-Palermo line, the Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday . However, the company resubmitted that plan in 2014, 2015 and 2016, postponing the proposed fixes each year. Most recently, the company planned to begin work on June 2018 and finish later in the year, though such work has not begun, the Journal added. Shares of PG&E, which had been up prior to the report, last traded down 2.2 percent. The company did not have a comment immediately available when CNBC contacted it for a response. PG&E faces at least $30 billion in potential liability costs stemming from wildfires in 2017 and 2018, many allegedly started by the company's equipment, that have led state officials to doubt the safety of the company's electric distribution system. Investigators have already determined PG&E's equipment liable in at least 17 major wildfires in 2017 . State investigators are still examining whether the company's equipment was partly responsible for November's Camp Fire, which killed at least 86 people and destroyed about 14,000 homes, making it the state's deadliest fire.
Supreme Court Will Consider Letting Groundwater Pollution Escape Regulation Under Clean Water Act - – The Supreme Court agreed Tuesday to decide if contamination of groundwater that seeps into rivers, lakes and oceans violates the Clean Water Act. Dumping pollutants directly into navigable bodies of water is prohibited by the 47-year-old law, but it is less clear about indirect sources. Last year, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit ruled that Hawaii's Maui County violated the law by injecting treated sewage from a wastewater treatment plant into the groundwater, some of which enters the Pacific Ocean. The high court will hear the county's appeal next fall. "If the Supreme Court reverses the lower courts’ decisions, chemical plants, concentrated animal feeding operations, oil refineries, and other industrial facilities would effectively have free rein to discharge pollutants indirectly into the nation’s waterways without Clean Water Act permits," the environmental group Earthjustice warned Tuesday. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit came to a similar conclusion last year in a South Carolina case involving an underground pipeline that burst in 2014, spilling hundreds of thousands of gallons of gasoline. Some of the fuel seeped into nearby rivers, lakes, and wetlands, including the Savannah River. However, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit did not take the same view in a Kentucky case, in which pollutants from coal ash retention ponds seeped into groundwater that fed local waterways. The court said only pollutants added directly to navigable bodies of water were regulated under the law.
Fifty Million Gallons of Polluted Water Pours Daily from US Mine Sites (AP) — Every day many millions of gallons of water loaded with arsenic, lead and other toxic metals flow from some of the most contaminated mining sites in the U.S. and into surrounding streams and ponds without being treated, The Associated Press has found. That torrent is poisoning aquatic life and tainting water supplies in Montana, California, Colorado, Oklahoma and at least five other states. The pollution is a legacy of how the mining industry was allowed to operate in the U.S. for more than a century. Companies that built mines for silver, lead, gold and other “hardrock” minerals could move on once they were no longer profitable, leaving behind tainted water that still leaks out of the mines or is cleaned up at taxpayer expense. Using data from public records requests and independent researchers, the AP examined 43 mining sites under federal oversight, some containing dozens or even hundreds of individual mines. The records show that at average flows, more than 50 million gallons (189 million liters) of contaminated wastewater streams daily from the sites. In many cases, it runs untreated into nearby groundwater, rivers and ponds — a roughly 20-million-gallon (76-million-liter) daily dose of pollution that could fill more than 2,000 tanker trucks. The remainder of the waste is captured or treated in a costly effort that will need to carry on indefinitely, for perhaps thousands of years, often with little hope for reimbursement. The volumes vastly exceed the release from Colorado’s Gold King Mine disaster in 2015, when a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency cleanup crew inadvertently triggered the release of 3 million gallons (11.4 million liters) of mustard-colored mine sludge, fouling rivers in three states. Federal officials have raised fears that at least six of the sites examined by AP could have blowouts like the one at Gold King. Some sites feature massive piles or impoundments of mine waste known as tailings. A tailings dam collapse in Brazil last month killed at least 169 people and left 140 missing. A similar 2014 accident in British Columbia swept millions of cubic yards of contaminated mud into a nearby lake, resulting in one of Canada’s worst environmental disasters. But even short of a calamitous accident, many mines pose the chronic problem of relentless pollution.
Australia Plans to Dump More Than 1 Million Tons of Sludge in Great Barrier Reef Waters - The Great Barrier Reef faces yet "another nail in the coffin," Dr. Simon Boxall from the National Oceanography Centre Southampton told BBC News Friday.That is because the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority (GBRMPA) has approved plans to dump one million tonnes (approximately 1.1 million U.S. tons) of sludge into the World Heritage Site. The decision comes in the same month that runoff from flooding in Queensland, Australia threatened to smother part of the reef and two years after the unique ecosystem was weakened by back-to-back coral bleaching events caused byclimate change."If they are dumping it over the coral reef itself, it will have quite a devastating effect. The sludge is basically blanketing over the coral," Boxall explained.GBRMPA issued a permit on Jan. 29 for North Queensland Bulk Ports to dump maintenance dredge sludge within the park's boundaries, The Guardian reported. In doing so, it exploited a loophole in a 2015 law meant to protect the reef. The law banned capital dredging, but said nothing about port maintenance, the process of removing sediment that builds up in shipping lanes. The permit would allow maintenance dredging and dumping over 10 years at Mackay's Hay Point port, which BBC News said was one of the world's largest coalexport sites.Greens Senator Larissa Waters argued the permit should be overturned."The last thing the reef needs is more sludge dumped on it, after being slammed by the floods recently," Waters told The Guardian. "One million tonnes of dumping dredged sludge into world heritage waters treats our reef like a rubbish tip."
A Troubling Discovery in the Deepest Ocean Trenches - In the Mariana Trench, the lowest point in any ocean, every tiny animal tested had plastic pollution hiding in its gut. For the past decade, Alan Jamieson, a marine biologist at Newcastle University, has been sending vehicles to the bottom of marine trenches, which can be as deep as the Himalayas are tall. Once there, these landers have collected amphipods—scavenger relatives of crabs and shrimp that thrive in the abyss. Jamieson originally wanted to know how these animals differ from one distant trench to another. But a few years ago, almost on a whim, he decided to analyze their body for toxic, human-made pollutants such as polychlorinated biphenyls, or PCBs, which have been banned for decades but which persist in nature for much longer. The team found PCBs galore. Some amphipods were carrying levels 50 times higher than those seen in crabs from one of China’s most polluted rivers. When the news broke, Jamieson was inundated with calls from journalists and concerned citizens. And in every discussion, one question kept coming up: What about plastics? The world produces an estimated 10 tons of plastic a second, and between 5 million and 14 million tons sweep into the oceans every year. Some of that debris washes up on beaches, even on the world’s most isolated islands. About5 trillion pieces currently float in surface waters, mostly in the form of tiny, easy-to-swallow fragments that have ended up in the gut of albatrosses, sea turtles, plankton, fish, and whales. But those pieces also sink, snowing into the deep sea and upon the amphipods that live there. Brooks eventually found plastic fibers and fragments in 72 percent of the amphipods that the team collected, from all six trenches that they had surveyed. In the least polluted of these sites, half of the amphipods had swallowed at least one piece of plastic. In the 6.8-mile-deep Mariana Trench, the lowest point in any ocean, all of the specimens had plastic in their gut.
Nobody Knows How This 10-Ton Whale Crash-Landed Deep in the Amazon Jungle — Scientists are baffled by the recent discovery of a 10-ton humpback whale found dead deep in the Amazon jungle of Brazil. The massive whale was found on the island of Marajo, which is located at the mouth of the Amazon River. Some researchers suggest that the whale was thrown onshore during a storm, but this explanation would take a number of odd circumstances, considering that these types of creatures rarely swim close to the coast. The whale was found so far inland that it would have required hurricane force winds to carry something so heavy for so long. The whale would have had to be picked up very high into the air to be hurled over so many tall trees. Local officials say that other animals began flocking to the huge carcass of the mammal, which tipped them off that something strange was happening on the island. Marine specialists that work at the Bicho D’agua Institute, a conservation organization based in Marajo, have been studying the site and the whale to determine what happened. Renata Emin, lead researcher of the effort, told The Independent: “We’re still not sure how it landed here, but we’re guessing that the creature was floating close to the shore and the tide, which has been pretty considerable over the past few days, picked it up and threw it inland, into the mangrove. Along with this astonishing feat, we are baffled as to what a humpback whale is doing on the north coast of Brazil during February because this is a very unusual occurrence.”
US Bars Lithium-ion Batteries From Passenger Aircraft Cargo - The US government on Wednesday issued new rules that prohibit airlines from transporting lithium-ion batteries and cells as cargo on passenger aircraft. The new Transportation Department rules come after Congress last year directed the agency to adopt the new rules. The new restriction doesn't apply to passengers or crew bringing electronics aboard aircraft. "This rule will strengthen safety for the traveling public by addressing the unique challenges lithium batteries pose in transportation," US Secretary of Transportation Elaine L. Chao said in a statement. In the past couple of years, the use of lithium-ion batteries has been linked to fires and spewing smoke in a slew of products, including Samsung's now-canceled Galaxy Note 7, hoverboards and Boeing's 787 Dreamliner. However, the rules are expected to have little immediate affect. The Federal Aviation Administration issued a warning about the batteries in 2016, urging airlines to examine the risks associated with transporting lithium batteries as cargo, including "the potential risk for a catastrophic hull loss." The alert covered batteries being transported as components and not those already inside devices such as laptops, tablets, phones or hoverboards. Transportation Department's Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, which issued the new rules, noted that three aircraft accidents, including two fatal crashes, have been linked to lithium-ion batteries being transported as cargo catching fire.
New Jersey Said 10 Years Ago It Would Rank Its Most Contaminated Sites. It Never Did. --For decades, New Jersey’s chemical plants, textile mills and metal factories helped power America.That came at a price.Byproducts like dioxin from the manufacture of the herbicide Agent Orange fouled the Passaic River, making fish and crab toxic. Dye and paint companies dumped waste in illegal landfills in Toms River, polluting the groundwater for decades. Carcinogenic vapors migrated to homes from Pompton Lakes factories making war ammunition and nonstick pans.New Jersey eventually passed some of the strongest environmental laws in the country, including the precursor to the federal Superfund law, and the state has made strides in cleaning up contamination.But don’t ask what the state’s priorities are.A decade after legislators mandated that the Department of Environmental Protection rank every contaminated site in order of urgency and severity, the agency has yet to act.The rankings were supposed to ensure that the most dangerous sites remained a priority even as the state gave private companies — and effectively private developers — a bigger role in the cleanup process.The first list was to have been published in 2010, but that didn’t happen, and three years ago, the state auditor faulted the DEP, saying the agency was “non-compliant” in its duties.Today, there are nearly 14,000 contamination sites across New Jersey, the nation’s most densely populated state, and still no sign of the mandated rankings. Environmentalists say without the list, the agency can’t ensure that all corners of the Garden State, and not just the areas that are economically desirable, are being cleaned up.
Concrete: the most destructive material on Earth - In the time it takes you to read this sentence, the global building industry will have poured more than 19,000 bathtubs of concrete. By the time you are halfway through this article, the volume would fill the Albert Hall and spill out into Hyde Park. In a day it would be almost the size of China’s Three Gorges Dam. In a single year, there is enough to patio over every hill, dale, nook and cranny in England.After water, concrete is the most widely used substance on Earth. If the cement industry were a country, it would be the third largest carbon dioxide emitter in the world with up to 2.8bn tonnes, surpassed only by China and the US.The material is the foundation of modern development, putting roofs over the heads of billions, fortifying our defences against natural disaster and providing a structure for healthcare, education, transport, energy and industry. Concrete is how we try to tame nature. Our slabs protect us from the elements. They keep the rain from our heads, the cold from our bones and the mud from our feet. But they also entomb vast tracts of fertile soil, constipate rivers, choke habitats and – acting as a rock-hard second skin – desensitise us from what is happening outside our urban fortresses. Our blue and green world is becoming greyer by the second. By one calculation, we may have already passed the point where concrete outweighs the combined carbon mass of every tree, bush and shrub on the planet. Our built environment is, in these terms, outgrowing the natural one. Unlike the natural world, however, it does not actually grow. Instead, its chief quality is to harden and then degrade, extremely slowly. All the plastic produced over the past 60 years amounts to 8bn tonnes. The concrete industry pumps out more than that every two years. But though the problem is bigger than plastic, it is generally seen as less severe. Concrete is not derived from fossil fuels. It is not being found in the stomachs of whales and seagulls. Doctors aren’t discovering traces of it in our blood. Nor do we see it tangled in oak trees or contributing to subterranean fatbergs. We know where we are with concrete. Or to be more precise, we know where it is going: nowhere. Which is exactly why we have come to rely on it.
Carbon dioxide in our atmosphere may soar to levels not seen in 56 million years - Emissions of carbon dioxide – the greenhouse gas most responsible for global warming – could soar to levels not seen in 56 million years by the middle of next century, scientists warned in a study Wednesday.Though it won't happen in our lifetimes, it could very well happen in the lives of our grandchildren or great-grandchildren."You and I won't be here in 2159, but that's only about four generations away," said study author Philip Gingerich, a University of Michigan paleoclimate researcher.He said humans pump carbon dioxide into the atmosphere at a rate nine to 10 times higher than it was during a natural global warming event roughly 56 million years ago.That era, known by scientists as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), was Earth's warmest period since the extinction of the dinosaurs 66 million years ago. According to the study, during that period, the poles were ice-free, and the Arctic was home to palm trees and crocodiles. That warmth caused a major extinction of organisms in the deep ocean that are a key link in the marine food web.Scientists aren't sure what caused that spike in carbon dioxide during that era, but we know what's causing it now:The burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas releases greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane into Earth's atmosphere and oceans. That extra carbon has caused temperatures to rise to levels over the past century and a half that cannot be explained by natural factors, scientists say."The rates of carbon release that are happening today are really unprecedented," said Gabriel Bowen, a University of Utah geophysicist. The increase in gases such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide is fueling climate change and making "the planet more dangerous and inhospitable for future generations," the World Meteorological Organization said.
A World Without Clouds - For decades, rough calculations have suggested that cloud loss could significantly impact climate, but this concern remained speculative until the last few years, when observations and simulations of clouds improved to the point where researchers could amass convincing evidence. Now, new findings reported today in the journal Nature Geoscience make the case that the effects of cloud loss are dramatic enough to explain ancient warming episodes like the PETM — and to precipitate future disaster. Climate physicists at the California Institute of Technology performed a state-of-the-art simulation of stratocumulus clouds, the low-lying, blankety kind that have by far the largest cooling effect on the planet. The simulation revealed a tipping point: a level of warming at which stratocumulus clouds break up altogether. The disappearance occurs when the concentration of CO2 in the simulated atmosphere reaches 1,200 parts per million — a level that fossil fuel burning could push us past in about a century, under “business-as-usual” emissions scenarios. In the simulation, when the tipping point is breached, Earth’s temperature soars 8 degrees Celsius, in addition to the 4 degrees of warming or more caused by the CO2 directly.Once clouds go away, the simulated climate “goes over a cliff,” said Kerry Emanuel, a climate scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. A leading authority on atmospheric physics, Emanuel called the new findings “very plausible,” though, as he noted, scientists must now make an effort to independently replicate the work. To imagine 12 degrees of warming, think of crocodiles swimming in the Arctic and of the scorched, mostly lifeless equatorial regions during the PETM. If carbon emissions aren’t curbed quickly enough and the tipping point is breached, “that would be truly devastating climate change,” said Caltech’s Tapio Schneider, who performed the new simulation with Colleen Kaul and Kyle Pressel.
Iceberg twice the size of NYC about to break off of Antarctica - An iceberg twice the size of New York City is about to break off of Antarctica's Brunt Ice Shelf, according to NASA. "Cracking across Antarctica’s Brunt Ice Shelf is set to release an iceberg w/ an area about 2x the size of NYC. The splitting could result in an uncertain future for the shelf’s scientific research & human presence," NASA said in a tweet. NASA said in a statement that there are cracks growing across the ice shelf that were first observed in October 2016. It's not clear how the ice shelf will fare following the iceberg break, according to NASA. According to NASA, the iceberg may become the largest to break from the ice shelf since observations began in 1915. It's possible the ice shelf could become unstable following the break. Joe MacGregor, a glaciologist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, said in the statement that the "near-term future" of the ice shelf "likely depends on where the existing rifts merge relative to the McDonald Ice Rumples," another area on the ice shelf. “If they merge upstream (south) of the McDonald Ice Rumples, then it’s possible that the ice shelf will be destabilize," MacGregor added.
Complete Collapse - Iceberg Twice The Size Of NYC Set To Break Off Antarctica - Dangerous cracks developing across Antarctica’s Brunt Ice Shelf are due to unleash a massive iceberg twice the size of New York City, according to NASA researchers who warn when it breaks, it could destabilize the entire shelf. NASA recently released images acquired by Landsat satellites of Antarctica’s Brunt Ice Shelf, where a rift is visibly slicing through the shelf. Researchers said the crack had been stable for more than three decades, but since, has been moving north at about 2.5 miles per year. “The near-term future of Brunt Ice Shelf likely depends on where the existing rifts merge relative to the McDonald Ice Rumples,” said Joe MacGregor, a glaciologist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center. “If they merge upstream (south) of the McDonald Ice Rumples, then it’s possible that the ice shelf will be destabilized.” The rift is moving toward another fissure, as known as Halloween crack, that is located 3 miles away. Halloween crack was first discovered in 2016, continues to move east, and when the two rifts intersect in the very near term, an iceberg is formed measuring 660 square miles. “We don’t have a clear picture of what drives the shelf’s periods of advance and retreat through calving,” said NASA/UMBC glaciologist Chris Shuman.“The likely future loss of the ice on the other side of the Halloween Crack suggests that more instability is possible."Researchers are puzzled on what drives this process, known as calving, could mean the health of the shelf is in immediate danger. “At worst, this calving could destabilize the remainder of the Brunt Ice Shelf leading to its complete collapse,”
Scientists Plan to Geoengineer Planet Earth to Save Us From Global Warming — Harvard’s Gernot Wagner wants to save the world from global warming. His method? Develop a new type of plane that will fly more than 4,000 missions a year dumping particulates into the stratosphere.Wagner and his colleague Wake Smith call the proposed plane “SAI Lofter (SAIL).” Anonymous individuals at “Airbus, Atlas Air, Boeing, Bombardier, GE Engines, Gulfstream, Lockheed Martin, NASA, Near Space Corporation, Northrup Grumman, Rolls Royce Engines, Scaled Composites, The Spaceship Company, and Virgin Orbit” provided input.Estimates for SAIL’s design and operation seem sophisticated but are fabricated. Wagner and Smith admit, “No existing aircraft design—even with extensive modifications—can reasonably fulfill [their] mission.”Wagner and others believe that scientists can calculate how many particulates will be needed to cool the Earth to a desired temperature.Wagner and Smith are not alone in their geoengineering dreams. As early as 2006, Paul J. Crutzen, Nobel laureate in chemistry, called for “stratospheric geoengineering research.” Harvard professors David Keith and Frank Keutsch hope to experiment via balloons spraying “a fine mist of materials such as sulfur dioxide, alumina, or calcium carbonate into the stratosphere.” Wagner, Keith, and Keutsch are all part of the Solar Geoengineering Research Program at Harvard.Geoengineering is gaining global traction. Last fall, the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued a report saying geoengineering could be used as an emergency “temporary remedial measure.” Spraying aerosols in the stratosphere would “mimic what large volcanoes do.”
13-Year-Old US Activist Hailed as Glorious 'Threat' to Those Driving Planetary Disaster With Climate Denialism -- She's just 13 years old, but she's "a threat." That's climate activist Alexandria Villaseñor, who explained in an interview Friday morning, "My generation is going to have to live in a climate-changed world, and the fact that nothing was done in order to make sure that we don't live in planetary catastrophe—it's very disappointing and it's upsetting." A recent New York City transplant, Villaseñor—taking inspiration from Swedish teen Greta Thunberg—has been standing in front of the United Nations every Friday for 11 weeks. She's also co-leading the U.S. Youth Climate Strike movement, which is organizing to get thousands of students to take part in a global day of climate action on March 15. In a tweet sent following her interview with CBS News, the teenager appeared shocked that she had actually gone on national television and "told all the adults in America that they are threatened by us!" In fact, "yes, you are a threat," responded author and climate activist Naomi Klein, "because believing climate science means embracing deep change to a way of life that has long been equated with freedom and power (but is, in fact, a straight shot to utter powerlessness and loss of freedom)."
‘Stop Funding Climate Change!’: Jamie Dimon Interrupted for Important Planetary Message -Climate activists interrupted JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on Saturday to make a clear demand: "Stop funding climate change!"Dimon was the key speaker at a morning session of the National Governors Association's (NGA) annual winter meeting, taking place in Washington, D.C. The session (pdf) was to "offer governors unique insights into the intersection of public policy and the modern economy."As Dimon was speaking, activists affiliated with Rainforest Action Network (RAN) and the D.C. chapter of 350.org rose to ask, "How is [climate change] not one of your policy priorities?" and repeatedly said, "Jamie Dimon, stop funding climate change!"Dimon continued to talk over the activists, who stood and held a banner reading, "Chase: Stop profiting off dirty energy and rights abuses." RAN posted video of the disruption, which also shows the protesters being led away by security:A report out last year from RAN accused the financial giant of being "the top U.S. funder of extreme fossil fuels," citing its financing of tar sands projects, ultra-deepwater oil, Arctic oil, coal power, and LNG exports. "We want Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, to hear us loud and clear: funding climate change is not what leadership looks like," said RAN researcher Grant Marr in a prepared statement. "As the top Wall Street funder of tar sands pipelines and other fossil fuel projects, Chase should be held responsible for driving us toward climate crisis."
‘It’s Not Going to Get Turned Around in 10 Years’: Sen. Feinstein Criticized for Dismissive Attitude to Young Climate Activists - An encounter between 15 San Francisco middle and high school students and California Senator Dianne Feinstein on Friday revealed a generational divide within the Democratic party when it comes to acting onclimate change. The children arrived to ask Feinstein to support the Green New Deal resolution proposed by Democratic New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Democratic Massachusetts Senator Edward J. Markey, which calls for a 10-year plan to shift the U.S. away from fossil fuels and towards 100 percent renewable energy while providing green jobs. They were met with a refusal that the Sunrise Movement Bay Area called "condescending" in a Facebook post sharing the video. "That resolution will not pass the Senate, and you can take that back to whoever sent you here and tell them," Feinstein said at one point, The New York Times reported. "I've been in the Senate for over a quarter of a century and I know what can pass and I know what can't pass." You can watch the full video here: Feinstein countered the children's request by sharing a draft of an alternative proposal that she told them was both more affordable and more likely to pass the Senate. However, environmentalist critics like 350.org founder Bill McKibben explained in The New Yorker that Feinstein's proposal—which calls for zero carbon emissions by 2050—simply does not move fast enough for scientific reality.
Democrats Criticized for Shying Away From Green New Deal -- CALIFORNIA SEN. Dianne Feinstein may feel like she was treated unfairly by young activists who have hammered her for not backing the Green New Deal resolution, but she has plenty of company. In upstate New York, Utah, Kentucky, and Pennsylvania, voters who feel a much greater sense of urgency than their elected officials have been reacting furiously to politicians who say that the attempt to turn the fossil fuel-based economy around in the next 12 years simply isn’t realistic. Rep. Antonio Delgado, the freshman from New York’s 19th District, was pressed repeatedly by constituents over his half-hearted support for the effort. He doesn’t support the Green New Deal, he told constituents at a town hall on February 16, though he noted that he backed certain aspects of the bill. Delgado said that he’s more interested in solutions that address the issues around climate change that can be solved now and that the bill as written does not sufficiently lay out a path for that kind of approach to the inevitability of climate crisis. Democrats, especially freshmen in the House, are having to face voters in their districts who find the lack of action on climate change to be a major issue for the new representatives. And those complaints aren’t coming from blue districts — as with Delgado, freshmen Democrats from purple districts are facing resistance from constituents over their hesitancy to endorse progressive programs. Republicans aren’t immune either. On Monday morning, roughly 250 young activists from the Sunrise Movement occupied the office of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., with 35 getting arrested.
What's in the Green New Deal? Four key issues to understand --In the few weeks since it was introduced as a non-binding resolution before the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives, the Green New Deal (GND) Resolution has generated more discussion and coverage of climate change – positive and negative – among, by, and aimed at policymakers than we’ve seen in more than a decade. The nonbinding initiative introduced by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and Edward Markey (D-MA) proposes embarking on a 10-year mobilization aimed at achieving zero net greenhouse gas emissions from the United States. The mobilization would entail a massive overhaul of American electricity, transportation, and building infrastructure to replace fossil fuels and improve energy efficiency, leading some to call it unrealistic, idealistic, politically impossible, and “socialistic.” Many commentators and policy analysts argue that the changes it calls for would be too expensive, radical, and disruptive. Others have argued that anyone who doesn’t support this sort of emergency transition away from fossil fuels is in denial about the magnitude of the climate problem. Many are confused about the Resolution’s vague contents, in part because Ocasio-Cortez’s office also released an inaccurate fact sheet that subsequently had to be retracted. That document provided early and low-hanging targets for those disposed to wanting to dampen GND enthusiasm. Critically, GND must be recognized as a non-binding “sense of the Senate/House” resolution. It is not intended as proposed legislation, and certainly not as a specific climate policy bill. Think of it as being more of a framework on which to build actual climate legislation. In effect, a “yes” vote in either the Senate or the House would signify acceptance of climate change as a sufficiently urgent threat to merit full consideration of an expansive 10-year mobilization to transition away from polluting fossil fuels. In addition, the resolution isn’t intended to be exclusionary: at least five House co-sponsors are also co-sponsoring a revenue-neutral carbon tax bill (the Energy Innovation and Carbon Dividend Act).
How Much Will It Cost to Address Climate Change? Pennies Compared to the Alternative - The cost of addressing climate change is much in the news these days, thanks to the Ocasio-Cortez Green New Deal (GND) proposal. Everyone seems to want to know how much it will cost. Too much, according to the editors at Forbes. “The Green New Deal Would Cost a Lot of Green,” they warn us, and the editors at Bloomberg want us to know that “The Green New Deal Is Unaffordable.”These headlines tell you they measure cost in terms of lost profit, not lost wages, since no one at Forbes or Bloomberg wants to see wages rise. Nor do they consider lost lives.Green New Deal advocates assure us that indeed we can pay for it, partly because of increased productivity (it will put a lot of people to work, FDR-style) and partly because the economy can simply absorb the influx of new money without the need for high “pay for it” taxes, just as the economy is absorbing the multi-trillion cost of the Iraq War and President Trump’s tax cuts. When elites and the wealth they serve want something expensive, they get it, and no one bothers to make them “pay for it” later. See this Huffington Post article, “We Can Pay For A Green New Deal,” by Stephanie Kelton, Andres Bernal and Greg Carlock for the gist of the “yes, it’s affordable” argument. Both statements are true, of course. Any attempt to really mitigate climate change — make the damage less, as opposed to merely adapting to the crisis — will cost “a lot of green.” And yes, the economy can absorb the additional spending, allowing taxes to be used only as an economic cooling device (if and as needed), not as a prohibitory “pay for it” device.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's Green New Deal Could Cost $93 Trillion, Group Says - Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s ambitious plan to fight climate change won’t be cheap, according to a Republican-aligned think tank led by a former Congressional Budget Office director.The so-called Green New Deal may tally between $51 trillion and $93 trillion over 10-years, concludes American Action Forum, which is run by Douglas Holtz-Eakin, who directed the non-partisan CBO from from 2003 to 2005. That includes between $8.3 trillion and $12.3 trillion to meet the plan’s call to eliminate carbon emissions from the power and transportation sectors and between $42.8 trillion and $80.6 trillion for its economic agenda including providing jobs and health care for all.“The Green New Deal is clearly very expensive,” the group said in its analysis. “Its further expansion of the federal government’s role in some of the most basic decisions of daily life, however, would likely have a more lasting and damaging impact than its enormous price tag.”Backers of the plan say cost of inaction would be more expensive. Theresolution itself, released earlier this month by Ocasio-Cortez and Massachusetts Democratic Senator Ed Markey points to a major report on global warming released by the United Nations last October that says catastrophic climate change could cost more than $500 billion annually in lost economic output in the U.S. by 2100. “Any so-called ‘analysis’ of the #GreenNewDeal that includes artificially inflated numbers that rely on lazy assumptions, incl. about policies that aren’t even in the resolution is bogus," Markey said on Twitter. “Putting a price on a resolution of principles, not policies, is just Big Oil misinformation.” Representatives of Ocasio-Cortez, a New York Democrat, didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. Republicans have embraced the sweeping plan because they think they can use it to cast Democrats as extreme, take back seats in Congress and possibly keep the White House in 2020.
Study: Green New Deal will rob and kill your entire family - Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Sen. Ed Markey’s Green New Deal is currently just a congressional resolution that may or may not get a Senate vote this week, but incredibly, the conservative American Action Forum, a group founded by former GOP Sen. Norm Coleman, has worked up an astonishing estimate of just how much it’ll cost—one which appears to have been pulled from a single extremely tight white ass. According to a write-up in the right-wing Washington Free Beacon, which calls it a “conservative estimate” (as in a lower-end estimate, not that it’s made up by conservatives), the American Action Forum puts the price tag at up to $93 trillion over 10 years. “The American Action Forum’s analysis shows that the Green New Deal would bankrupt the nation,” Republican Sen. John Barrasso, of “AOC wants to make ice cream illegal” fame, told the Free Beacon. “The total price tag would be $93 trillion over 10 years. That is roughly four times the value of all Fortune 500 companies combined. That’s no deal.” How, exactly, did they get to $94 trillion? Per the Free Beacon: The American Action Forum calculated guaranteed green housing would cost between $1.6 trillion and $4.2 trillion; a federal jobs guarantee between $6.8 trillion and $44.6 trillion; a net zero emissions transportation system between $1.3 trillion and $2.7 trillion; a low-carbon electricity grid for $5.4 trillion; and “food security” for $1.5 billion. Enough high-speed rail “to make air travel unnecessary,” would cost roughly $1.1 to $2.5 trillion. Universal Health Care, or a Medicare-for-all type plan, would cost $36 trillion over 10 years, totaling $260,000 per household in the United States. Yes, you’re reading that right: their ballpark estimate on a federal jobs guarantee has a range of $38 trillion. The centrist Brookings Institution’s estimate last year, by the way, put the high end on a job guarantee at $543 billion a year, or $5.4 trillion over 10 years.
The Green New Deal: Just Focus on What We Do, Not How We Pay for It - Marshall Auerback -- Extreme weather variations and increasingly dire scientific reports have spurred surprisingly robust policy proposals for a Green New Deal. Rather admirably, the resolution sponsored by Sen. Ed Markey (D-MA) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) marks a significant break from the usual “small ball” incrementalist approach to politics adopted in D.C., reflecting the increasingly prevailing view that the next decade or two is make-or-break for planet Earth. The sheer scale of the ambitious proposal—net-zero greenhouse gas emissions, clean air and water, married to traditional bread-and-butter progressive issues, such as a job guarantee and universal health care—have led to two predictable lines of attack: The first is that the program represents full-on socialism: a grab bag of the left’s favorite policies, “with everything from universal health care to a job guarantee draped under the mantle of environmentalism,” as a recent New York Times opinion piece explains. The second issue is how we are going to pay for it, given that the proposed Green New Deal resolution envisages costs that will run into the trillions to undertake this whole restructuring of the U.S. economy. Shorn of ideological rhetoric, the answer to the second question is actually quite simple. We “pay” for these specific proposals much as we do with any government initiative: Congress appropriates the funds, and the government literally spends the money into existence. The key point here is that when a government issues a currency that is not backed by any metal or pegged to another currency (i.e., the currency is created via government order, or “fiat,” hence the term, “fiat currency”), then there is no reason why it should be constrained in its ability to finance its spending by issuing currency in the way it was, say, under a gold standard (in which the supply of gold held by each nation literally controlled its capacity to spend). By extension, taxes don’t actually “fund” the government, so much as they constrain overall expenditures in the economy. In essence, government spending adds new money to the economy, whereas the imposition of taxes takes some of that money out again. The constant addition and subtraction of these spending and taxing activities is how “fiscal policy” actually works (and the sequencing is actually the opposite of what is traditionally taught in most economics textbooks). Likewise, as the monopoly issuer of the currency, the U.S. government (via the Federal Reserve) establishes the rates at which we borrow (not “the market”). It therefore follows that a sovereign currency-issuing government, unlike a private company, does not have market-based costs of capital that set the opportunity cost of their activities. This is important to remember when you hear politicians outlining how certain policy goals are somehow “constrained” by borrowing costs (or a particular discount rate).
The Green New Deal’s 10-Year Timeframe Is Unrealistic Even If a Lot Can Happen in a Few Decades -- The Green New Deal Democratic lawmakers recently proposed would confront climate change by eliminating America's net carbon emissions within a decade. If enacted, it would transform America's energy industries and slash pollution, improving public health.This proposal is a non-binding resolution, not an actual bill, and many of the proposed measures are long shots as long as the Republican Party holds a majority in the Senate and the Trump administration remains committed to its fossil fuel-supporting energy dominance policies.Having studied the electric power sector and energy policy for more than 20 years, I think that some of the changes in the Green New Deal could actually happen within a decade – as long as all three branches of the federal government were on board.But even if the most progressive Democrats were calling all the shots, the idea that the U.S. could accomplish this ambitious overarching goal within a decade strikes me as a stretch. California, which is committed to making all of its electricity carbon-free, aims to get that done by 2045, rather than 2030.Even if completely revamping the nation's power grid within a decade proved feasible, the Green New Deal also targets emissions from sectors such as transportation and agriculture. And reducing their carbon footprints has proven much harder around the world.Politically, the Green New Deal certainly seems like a non-starter even if the environmental and economic benefits would likely outweigh many of the costs. But are the ideas in the Green New Deal – especially those that would require radical changes, such as reinventing how the U.S. generates and consumes energy within a decade – truly outlandish? While no nation has ever achieved anything quite as dramatic in so short a time, countries can rapidly change how they get their energy, without destroying their economies or compromising energy security. There are several good examples, especially in Europe.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez delivers impassioned response to critics: ‘I’m the boss. How about that?’ -- Democratic congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has accused critics of “not trying” to tackle climate change following opposition to her ambitious Green New Deal programme. Ms Ocasio-Cortez addressed criticism she has faced from both Republicans and Democrats in Congress at a New York Hall of Science event. “You know what? I don’t care anymore, because at least I’m trying and they’re not,” she said. “I just introduced the Green New Deal two weeks ago and it’s creating all of this conversation, why? Because no one else has even tried.” Her comments came during a discussion with Girls Who Code founder Reshma Saujani and young women of colour who have designed apps which address social issues. Critics have claimed the Green New Deal resolution is too extreme and unworkable, with Donald Trump incorrectly suggesting it would “permanently eliminate all planes, cars, cows, oil, gas and the military”. Ms Ocasio-Cortez added: “So people are like ‘Oh it’s unrealistic, oh it’s vague, oh it doesn’t address this little minute thing’ and I’m like ‘You try! You do it!’ Because you’re not, so until you do it, I’m the boss, How about that?” The resolution, which has been proposed by Ms Ocasio-Cortez and senator Edward J Markey, sets out broad changes to American society which aim to reduce the effects of climate change. The proposal currently has the support of major Democratic presidential candidates Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Cory Booker and Kirsten Gillibrand.
GOP stacks Green New Deal forum with climate deniers and industry groups - The Congressional Western Caucus will host a forum on Wednesday that the Republican-dominated group is billing as the "first in-depth public review of the Green New Deal" by Congress. But there is just one hitch: The list of confirmed guests is stacked with prominent climate-change deniers and representatives of industry-linked groups. Republicans have come out forcefully against the Green New Deal, a plan put forward by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to stave off climate change by overhauling the U.S. economy and energy system. Among other things, the deal calls for generating 100 percent of U.S. power from renewable sources and eliminating greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles and industry in about 10 years. In a press release, the Congressional Western Caucus says the forum will address "how a transition of this magnitude might occur, analyze how the proposal will be paid for and the estimated costs, and review the overall feasibility of and opportunities associated with the Green New Deal." However, comments from caucus members on the group's website suggest they have already made up their minds about the proposal. "The Green New Deal is another climate change, socialist pipedream [sic] that attacks American jobs and our way of life," said Rep. Paul Gosar, Republican of Arizona and chairman of the caucus, which focuses on several issues, including energy, water issues and private property rights. The guest list for Wednesday's forum also suggests a strong bias against the plan. It does not include any witnesses that represent the vast majority of climate scientists who say climate change is primarily caused by greenhouse gas emissions from human activity. Nor does it include representatives from U.S. government agencies that have drawn the same conclusion, such as NASA or the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. No independent scholars or researchers who specialize in energy systems are on the list. Instead, the witnesses include prominent climate-change skeptics, such as Myron Ebell, who led the EPA's transition team for then President-elect Donald Trump; Marc Morano, the founder of Climate Depot, a blog dedicated to challenging climate science; and Dr. David Legates, a professor of climatology at the University of Delaware who regularly speaks at gatherings of climate deniers. The rest of the confirmed guests include representatives of industry-linked groups such as the Consumer Energy Alliance, the American Energy Alliance and the Federal Forest Resource Coalition. The libertarian group Americans for Limited Government is also scheduled to attend.
Vacant-land mythology impedes serious energy discussions - Perhaps the most enduring myth in American energy politics is that there’s an endless amount of vacant land out there in flyover country that’s ready and waiting to be covered with forests of renewable-energy stuff. The truth is quite different. All across the country, rural communities — even entire states — are resisting or rejecting “green” energy projects. Gail Collins’ Feb. 13 column in the New York Times about the Green New Deal, titled “The Answer is Blowin’ in the Wind.” claimed “If the country really threw itself into wind power, we could, er, breeze toward our goals on that alone,” Wind energy works “well in places like the plains states” that are “in need of economic development.” Ah yes, the plains states. Flyover country. Rather than look west, Collins should look north to see what’s actually happening on the ground. For years, three upstate New York counties — Erie, Orleans and Niagara — as well as the towns of Yates and Somerset have been fighting a proposed 200-megawatt wind project called Lighthouse Wind. Perhaps Collins isn’t aware of the opposition because the Times has never run a single story about the Lighthouse Wind controversy.Collins also could look at Falmouth, Mass., where after years of legal battles, the town recently was forced to take down a pair of wind turbines because of noise and nuisance complaints from neighbors who lived near the turbines. Rural residents in Spotsylvania County, Virginia, are fighting a proposed 500-megawatt solar project that, if built, would cover nearly 10 square miles. According to the Fredericksburg Free Lance-Star local residents believe “the project is too big to be near homes and that it poses potential health and environmental risks. They also are concerned about impacts to property values.” Transmission lines also face resistance. In 2017, Iowa enacted a law that prohibits the use of eminent domain for high-voltage transmission lines. The move doomed the Rock Island Clean Line, a 500-mile, $2 billion, high-voltage direct-current transmission line that was going to carry wind energy from Iowa to eastern states. Last year, New Hampshire regulators rejected a high-voltage electricity transmission project that was to carry hydropower from Quebec to consumers in Massachusetts. The 192-mile, $1.6 billion project was vetoed in a unanimous vote by the New Hampshire Site Evaluation Committee. More high-voltage transmission is essential if America is to make a big shift toward renewables. In 2012, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory estimated that if the United States were to attempt to derive 90 percent of its electricity from renewable sources, it would have to double its high-voltage transmission capacity. A key difference is that renewables require far more land. For example, wind energy needs about 700 times more land to produce the same amount of energy as a site that produces natural gas with hydraulic fracturing.
Would you let Eversource pay you to raise the temperature in your house on a hot day? -- The state’s largest electric utility is seeking permission in New Hampshire and its other New England markets to raise the temperature on some home air conditioners by several degrees, reducing the amount of electricity being consumed during periods of peak usage, such as a hot summer afternoon. The idea is being discussed at the Public Utilities Commission as part of various energy efficiency proposals. Details are very much up in the air and no timetable has been set. Eversource would like to sign up a few thousand New Hampshire homeowners who have WiFi-enabled “smart thermostats” and who, in return for payments, will give the utility permission to have the thermostat company raise the temperature a few degrees a certain number of times each summer. These customers would be able to opt out of the change at specific times, although that could lower the amount of payment. “Raising it a couple of degrees, no more than 4 degrees, is usually the optimal amount ... to get a benefit without affecting the customer too much. The hope is that customers don’t even know,” said Michael Goldman, manager of regulatory planning and evaluation for Eversource.
CEO of Largest U.S. Grid Says It's Fine If 30,000 Megawatts Shut - About 18,000 megawatts of coal and nuclear plants -- enough to power 13.5 million homes -- are slated to permanently shut across the eastern U.S. grid. And the region still has enough electricity to keep the lights on, according to the chief executive officer of the grid operator. In fact, “we could sustain essentially in the 30,000 megawatt range,” PJM Interconnection LLC Chief Executive Officer Andy Ott said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “If it gets beyond that, then we start to look at the alternatives for firming up resources.” Ott’s comments echo the results of an analysis PJM conducted last year that showed the grid remains reliable despite the dozens of coal and nuclear power plants going out of business because of cheaper natural gas generators and new renewable energy sources. The findings fly in the face of the Trump administration’s warnings that the retirements threaten the resilience of the grid and the nation’s security. PJM runs a grid that stretches from Washington, D.C., to Chicago and a market that supplies power to more than 65 million people. Should it need to firm up resources, Ott said, the region could look into options including building more natural gas storage tanks; sourcing more trucks to deliver fuel; and finding ways to keep at least some coal and nuclear plants online. Gas plant operators should meanwhile increase the amount of supplies they keep on site to five days’ worth, he said, up from about 30 to 40 hours’ worth now. Adding battery storage to wind and solar farms could also improve reliability, Ott said.
PG&E says it's 'probable' utility caused the 2018 Camp Fire - PG&E Corp. said Thursday that it believes it's "probable" that the utility's equipment will be found to be the source of the 2018 Camp Fire, the deadliest in California's history."Although the cause of the 2018 Camp fire is still under investigation, based on the information currently known to PG&E Corporation and reported to the CPUC and other agencies, PG&E Corporation believes it is probable that the Utility's equipment will be determined to be an ignition point of the 2018 Camp fire," the company said in a government filing.Based on the early findings of the California Public Utilities Commission, or CPUC, the company said it is including a $10.5 billion pretax charge related to third-party claims in connection with the 2018 Camp Fire in its full-year and fourth-quarter 2018 financial results.The company said Thursday its full-year net losses were $6.9 billion, or $13.25 per share, compared with net income of $1.6 billion, or $3.21 per share in 2017. For the fourth quarter of 2018, the company said net losses were $6.9 billion, or $13.24 per share, compared with net income of $114 million in the fourth quarter of 2017."The company is facing extraordinary challenges relating to the 2018 Camp Fire and 2017 Northern California wildfires," the company said in a release. "Management has concluded that these circumstances raise substantial doubt about PG&E Corporation's and the Utility's ability to continue as going concerns." The company filed for bankruptcy protection last month.
The Inevitable Death of Natural Gas as a ‘Bridge Fuel’ --Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti recently announced the city is scrapping plans for a multi-billion-dollar update to three natural gas power plants, instead choosing to invest in renewable energy and storage.“This is the beginning of the end of natural gas in Los Angeles,” said Mayor Garcetti. “The climate crisis demands that we move more quickly to end dependence on fossil fuel, and that’s what today is all about.”Last year America’s carbon emissions rose over 3 percent, despite coal plants closing and being replaced in part by natural gas, the much-touted “bridge fuel” and “cleaner” fossil fuel alternative. As a new series from the sustainability think tank the Sightline Institute points out, the idea of natural gas as a bridge fuel is “alarmingly deceptive.” But signs are emerging that, despite oil and gas industry efforts to shirk blame for the climate crisis and promote gas as part of a “lower-carbon fuel mix,” the illusion of natural gas as a bridge fuel is starting to crumble.Building new natural gas infrastructure looks like a bad investment right now to cities like LA when renewables are already competitive. Natural gas seems poised to join coal as another fuel that just couldn’t compete with renewables. The price of renewable energy and storage is trending downward while the already super-low price of natural gas — especially in the U.S. — has nowhere to go but up. MIT professor and former CIA director John Deutch recently presented a study entitled, “Demonstrating Near Carbon Free Electricity Generation from Renewables and Storage,” at a Stanford University energy seminar,in which he said: “You are going to find yourselves very shortly in a situation where you have storage alternatives that, when matched with existing solar and wind generating systems, will be able to meet load extremely effectively.” Meeting power demand effectively and as the lowest-cost producer — using fuel sources (wind and sun) that are free. According to Greentech Media, energy industry analysts at Wood Mackenzie say the combination of renewables with battery systems can currently replace approximately two-thirds of U.S. natural gas turbines — right now. Estimates predict the cost of storage alone could drop 80 percent by 2040. Who wants to own a gas power plant in 2040 knowing that?
US aims to lower Beijing's tariff on ethanol ahead of Chinese demand boom - U.S. trade negotiators hope to convince Beijing to lower tariffs on ethanol, putting American farmers in a position to capitalize on rising demand for the corn-based biofuel in China. The Trump administration's trade team has made the request, but their Chinese counterparts have yet to respond, Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue told reporters on Tuesday. "They are engaged in conversation, they listen and hear us, but we are at this stage unable to determine the willingness factor," Purdue said, according to a Reuters report. China once represented a bright opportunity for American corn farmers and ethanol producers, but their prospects have faded in recent years. In 2016, China was the third biggest market for U.S. ethanol, accounting for nearly 20 percent of U.S. exports and drumming up over $300 million in revenues, according the Renewable Fuels Association. But after two years of rising trade tensions, China took just 4 percent of U.S. ethanol exports in 2018, RFA says. Trade first dropped off after China put a 30-percent charge on U.S. ethanol in 2017. Last year, China increased the tariff to 45 percent after the Trump administration put new duties on foreign aluminum and steel. Under a new deal, Beijing would ideally set the import tax on ethanol below 15 percent, Perdue said on Tuesday. That would potentially allow U.S. ethanol suppliers to take advantage of Beijing's plans to introduce E10 — a gasoline blend containing 10 percent ethanol — across the country next year. To achieve that goal, China needs to source 15 million tons of ethanol per year, a nearly sevenfold increase from the country's current consumption, according to IHS Markit. Today, China only has enough capacity to produce about 3 million tons per year.
Miner warns of safety danger at United States’ largest underground coal mine --Miners in Southwestern Pennsylvania are warning of growing safety concerns at the Consol Energy’s Pennsylvania Mining Complex as the company pushes production while cutting back on safety.The coal mine complex which includes the Bailey, Enlow Fork and Harvey mines is running at 97 percent capacity and is expected to remain at that level for the rest of the year. The company already has contracts for 95 percent of its coal in 2019, 53 percent in 2020 and 20 percent in 2021.Together the three coal mines make up the largest underground mine in the country, covering an area several times the size of Manhattan extending under both Greene and Washington counties. The complex is commonly referred to as the Bailey mine, as it was the first of the three mines to open.“Everyone in the mine is very mad and concerned,” said a miner who works at the complex. “It is all production, production, production but they are creating the conditions where something can happen.” The miner, who spoke on condition that his name not be used, noted that despite record levels of production the company has not rehired miners assigned to rock dust crews who were recently laid off and that controls imposed over purchasing are preventing miners from obtaining the supplies they need.
Former Coal Lobbyist Andrew Wheeler Confirmed to Head the EPA --The Senate voted to confirm former coal lobbyist Andrew Wheeler as official head of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Thursday.Wheeler has run the agency since July, when he replaced former administrator Scott Pruitt following a resignation prompted by numerous scandals. As acting administrator, Wheeler has confirmed the fears of environmentalists that he would be a "smarter" threat, pursuing President Donald Trump's deregulatory agenda without the distraction of Pruitt's more obvious corruption."Unlike with some nominees, we do not have to speculate about what Mr. Wheeler will do in office,"Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) senior vice president for political affairs Elizabeth Gore told The Washington Post in an email. "From his actions as acting administrator for the past eight months, we have clear evidence of his agenda: undermine rules to limit toxic mercury, allow more smog and water pollution, and roll back protections against the threat of climate change. The senators who voted to entrust Mr. Wheeler with our environment know exactly what he will do with that power."The Senate voted to confirm Wheeler 52 to 47, almost entirely on party lines. Republican Maine Senator Susan Collins was the only member of her party to vote against Wheeler's confirmation. "I believe that Mr. Wheeler, unlike Scott Pruitt, understands the mission of the EPA and acts in accordance with ethical standards; however, the policies he has supported as Acting Administrator are not in the best interest of our environment and public health, particularly given the threat of climate change to our nation," Collins said in a statement.
Senate Confirms Ex-Coal Lobbyist to Lead U.S. Environment Regulator (Reuters) - The U.S. Senate on Thursday confirmed President Donald Trump's candidate, a former coal lobbyist, to lead the nation's top environmental regulator, infuriating Democrats and conservation groups who said his policies were endangering public health. Environmental Protection Agency Acting Administrator Andrew Wheeler, a Washington insider with years of experience working as a congressional staffer, was nominated by Trump in January to permanently replace Scott Pruitt, who resigned in July after widespread criticism for alleged ethical missteps. Only one Republican in the Republican-controlled Senate opposed Wheeler, Maine's Susan Collins, who argued his efforts to roll back standards on emissions blamed for climate change takes the country in the wrong direction. Business interests like oil and coal, eager to see reduced regulation, were quick to hail Wheeler's confirmation while Democrats and conservation groups are worried that environmental rollbacks under the Trump administration are going too far. While running the EPA on an interim basis, Wheeler oversaw the weakening of Obama-era rules limiting carbon and mercury emissions from power plants and standards on carbon dioxide emissions from cars and trucks. He has also advanced an initiative to lift a summertime ban on higher ethanol blends of gasoline that was enacted to curb smog. "Andrew Wheeler has been instrumental in advancing the most regressive environmental proposals of the Trump Administration —weakening public health protections against dirty cars, heat-trapping methane, toxic mercury, pollution from coal plants, and so much more," Like Pruitt, Wheeler held nearly 20 times more meetings with industry representatives than with conservationists during his first two months on the job, according to a copy of his schedule reviewed by Reuters.
in Siberia, toxic black snow reveals the toll of coal mining - This winter, toxic black snow—polluted by open-air coal pits—blanketed Siberia’s Kuzbass region's trees, buildings and roads, creating a series of surreal scenes across Kuzbass’ coal mining towns, as Marc Bennetts reports for the Guardian.“It’s harder to find white snow than black snow,” Vladimir Slivyak, a member of the Ecodefense environmental action group, tells the Guardian. “...There is a lot of coal dust in the air all the time. When snow falls, it just becomes visible. You can’t see it the rest of the year, but it is still there.”According to Encyclopedia Britannica, Kuzbass’ coalfield stretches across 10,000 square miles, making it one of the largest in the world. A 2015 report published by Ecodefense stated that 59 percent of all Russian coal was mined in the region, which then hosted 120 coal mining facilities and 52 enrichment plants. In the same report, Ecodefense noted Kuzbass' 2.6 million residents have an average life expectancy three to four years lower than Russia’s national average. In addition to lower life expectancy, they also exhibit heightened incidences of tuberculosis, childhood cerebral palsy and 15 types of cancer.This snow season, locals living in the coal mining cities of Prokopyevsk, Kiselyovsk and Leninsk-Kuznetsky have relied on social media to share photographs of the eerie winter landscape. One image reposted by the Siberian Times features blackened icicles dangling off of snow-covered branches, while another spotlights a playful sculpture whose appearance belies the ecological toll of Kuzbass’ snowfall. As Bennetts writes for the Guardian, a separate video filmed in Kiselyovsk reveals piles of coal-colored snow covering a children’s playground and the courtyards of several residential buildings.
Toxic GREEN snow in polluted Russian town forces residents to wear masks and sparks environmental protests - Toxic green and black snow falling on Russian towns has sparked mass protests against pollution. Residents in Pervouralsk were horrified when chemicals spilling from a chrome factory turned white snow to an acid green colour. Earlier this week pristine snows caps in Kemerovo turned an eerie black when pollution from coal plants turned the streets dark and grimy. And locals in Sibai have been forced to wear masks after thick smog from a copper factory has been settled over the town since November. The bizarre phenomena has caused dozens of demonstrations across Siberia against polluters which has seen president Vladimir Putin's support waning. It comes after a series of separate protests across more than a dozen Russian cities against plans to send Moscow's trash to poorer - and often pristine - northern areas. The first major trash protests took place outside Moscow last winter, when several children were hospitalized with poisoning linked to a local landfill. Moscow had been frantically trying to deal with rubbish of 13million people after residents of a suburb connived Mr Putin to close a gigantic tip there dubbed 'waste Everest'. Locals in nearby cities complained about toxic fumes that caused headaches and noise bleeds after lorries began ferrying waste to dumps in their areas. Environmentalists and even authorities have called the idea 'immoral' and urged officials to invest in waste separation and recycling operations instead. In an annual address on Wednesday, Mr Putin hit back at 'shady firms...dumping rubbish wherever and however they can'.
Russian state TV lists nuclear targets in US - Russian state television listed U.S. military facilities that the Kremlin would target in the event of a nuclear weapons attack, Reuters reports. Targets reportedly included the Pentagon and the presidential retreat in Camp David, Md. In the Sunday evening broadcast, Dmitry Kiselyov, the presenter of Russia’s main weekly TV news show "Vesti Nedeli," showed a map of the United States and identified several targets he said Moscow would want to hit in the event of a nuclear war, Reuters reported. “For now, we’re not threatening anyone, but if such a deployment takes place, our response will be instant,” he said, according to the news service. Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia would retaliate if the U.S. placed missiles in Europe. His remarks came after the Trump administration decided to stop complying with the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. The U.S. has publicly accused Russia of violating the treaty since 2014 by fielding a cruise missile known as the 9M729. The agreement, signed by President Reagan and Soviet Union leader Mikhail Gorbachev in 1987, bans nuclear and conventional ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges between 300 and 3,400 miles. The U.S. currently does not possess ground-based intermediate-range nuclear missiles that it could place in Europe, Reuters noted.
Doomsday Clock Scientists Say the Army’s Portable Nuclear Reactor Is a Disaster Waiting To Happen - The U.S. army envisions a kind of portable nuclear reactor that could move with units and provide all the power needs for a remote military base, eliminating the need to transport lots of fuel and maintain long supply lines to keep a base fueled up. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists—the people known for their "two minutes to midnight" Doomsday Clock—argues that while such a reactor probably is feasible from a technical standpoint, it would never be safe enough to deploy on the battlefield. The risk of meltdown and radiation release would be too great ever to justify deploying the reactor into the field, the scientists say. The Army announced Project Dilithium, its effort to develop a portable nuclear reactor, in January 2019. According to its plan, the reactor “should be less than 40 tons total weight; small enough to be transported by truck, ship, and aircraft; able to run for at least three years without refueling; and capable of semi-autonomous operation.” . The Army emphasizes safety and trouble-free operation, but also acknowledges that such a reactor is “not expected to survive a direct kinetic attack.” The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists says a hassle-free, low-maintenance reactor is unlikely at this point of technological development. In addition, war bring a variety of inescapable problems; a reactor on a battlefield could be buried by debris or damaged to the point that it can no longer cool itself. If the reactor is unable to prevent its temperature from spiking, its military outpost could have a big problem on its hands in the form of a meltdown. Given the unpredictability of the battlefield, it's impossible to say for certain that a reactor could be protected from such catastrophic damage. And if a reactor does suffer a containment failure, the Bulletin says, it is hard to see how dangerous radioactive material isn’t unleashed into the nearby environment:
Ohio’s Seitz Stays on ALEC Board While 71 Companies Leave and Charles Koch Shows Up --For months now, we’ve been examining why self-proclaimed “free market” Bill Seitz, the powerful Majority Leader in Ohio’s House of Representatives, picks energy winners and losers in the state’s economy. Despite proclamations that he dedicates his “time and resources to promote limited government, free markets and federalism,” in reality, our investigation has demonstrated him strategizing with fossil fuel lobbyists representing major users and producers of natural gas and blocking wind industry jobs in Ohio.Is this a free market approach? Or one directed by fossil fuel lobbyists and corporate leaders? An important answer to that question may be Seitz’s six years as a member of the board of directors at the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC).ALEC creates template legislation that advance the interests of major corporate lobbyists that bankroll the organization. Then, it promotes that legislation to some 2,000 elected state legislators so they can spread these lobbyist-written bills in their respective states. Most of these state policy makers work part time, and don’t have large staffs to develop legislation. As a result, they rely on influential lobbyists, many of whom are from polluting industries, to write legislation.Year after year, as corporations such as American Electric Power, Wells Fargo, News Corporation, Shell, Union Pacific, AT&T, Dow Chemical, Honeywell and Verizon have made the decision to abandon ALEC — Seitz has stayed put. Although companies cited other reasons, ALEC’s positions on climate change was a frequent reason for resignation. Although companies cited other reasons, ALEC’s positions on climate change was a frequent reason for resignation.
Nuclear plants still hold value to Ohio, experts argue — Ohio’s two aging nuclear power plants have plenty of life left in them and it would prove more economical to keep them running than if the state had to bring other sources of clean electricity online to meet future demand, a pair of experts said Wednesday. Co-authors of a Massachusetts Institute of Technology study on the value of nuclear energy nationally and internationally told lawmakers that the plants’ economic value goes beyond what they can get for the electricity they produce. “We need solar and wind, but we also need something that is dispatchable and controllable,” Jacopo Buongiorno, of MIT’s Department of Nuclear Science and Engineering, told the state House Energy and Natural Resources Committee. The study suggests that nuclear power does and will continue to play an important role in providing low carbon-emission power nationally and could provide a hedge for future uncertainty over demand, natural gas prices, and environmental regulation. There was next to no discussion about the nuclear waste generated by the plants.
Second Lordstown power plant will generate millions in economic activity - Bill Siderewicz, president of Clean Energy Future, the company developing a second gas-fired power plant in Lordstown Industrial Park, provided some impressive numbers Monday in village hall. The power plant, to be known as Trumbull Energy Center, will produce $149 million in property taxes for Lordstown and Trumbull County over the next 50 years. It will generate $1.9 million in income taxes and $85 million of profit taxes for Lordstown over that span. It will generate $11.5 million in water revenue for the city of Warren. It will generate $137 million in union wages during the 34-month construction that is expected to begin this summer, 1 percent ($137,000) of which will be paid to Lordstown as income taxes. Over 50 years, workers running the plant will earn $165 million. The company will buy $617 million worth of materials and services during construction and operation. Siderewicz developed and is part owner of the first power plant in the village, known as the Lordstown Energy Center. But a dispute developed between him and the majority owner of that plant, Australia-based Macquarie Group. Macquarie refused to sign an agreement involving the industrial park that would allow the second plant to be built, so Siderewicz sued in September 2017 in Trumbull County Common Pleas Court asking the court to enforce the agreement. A negotiated settlement was finalized Friday. Siderewicz said the next step will be to put together $925 million worth of financing, but he has concerns about whether state officials will carry out the “bailout” of two northern Ohio nuclear power plants, which could harm the two Lordstown power plants. The second plant will be nearly the same as the first, 940 megawatts.
Plastics: The New Coal in Appalachia?— Along the banks of the Ohio River here, thousands of workers are assembling the region's first plastics manufacturing plant. It's a conspicuous symbol of a petrochemical future looming across the Appalachian region.More than 70 construction cranes tower over hundreds of acres where zinc was smelted for nearly a century. In a year or two, Shell Polymers, part of the global energy company Royal Dutch Shell, plans to turn what's called "wet gas" into plastic pellets that can be used to make a myriad of products, from bottles to car parts.Two Asian companies could also announce any day that they plan to invest as much as $6 billion in a similar plant in Ohio. There's a third plastics plant proposed for West Virginia. With little notice nationally, a new petrochemical and plastics manufacturing hub may be taking shape along 300 miles of the upper reaches of the Ohio River, from outside Pittsburgh southwest to Ohio, West Virginia and Kentucky. It would be fueled by a natural gas boom brought on by more than a decade of hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, a drilling process that has already dramatically altered the nation's energy landscape—and helped cripple coal. But there's a climate price to be paid. Planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions from the Shell plant alone would more or less wipe out all the reductions in carbon dioxide that Pittsburgh, just 25 miles away, is planning to achieve by 2030. Oil consumption for petrochemicals and plastics may account for half the global growth in petroleum demand between now and 2050. Increased drilling for natural gas, another plastics feedstock, leaks methane, a potent climate pollutant. Despite the climate and environmental risks, state and business leaders and the Trump administration are promoting plastics and petrochemical development as the next big thing, more than three decades after the region's steel industry collapsed and as Appalachian coal mining slumps."We have been digging our way out of a very deep hole for decades," said Jack Manning, president and executive director of the Beaver County Chamber of Commerce. "When Shell came along with a $6-to-$7 billion investment ... we were in the right spot at the right time," he said.
Plastic & Health: The Hidden Costs of a Plastic Planet -- The Center for International Environmental Law (CIEL) last week released a report, Plastic & Health; The Hidden Cost of a Plastic Planet. Its conclusion: “Plastic is a Global Health Crisis Hiding in Plain Sight.” The principal contribution of the report: it takes a comprehensive look at the health impacts of plastic throughout its life cycle. This begins with the extraction and transport of fossil feedstocks for plastic, continues onto refining and production of plastic, creating consumer products and packaging, fostering toxic releases from plastic waste management. Waste disposal isn’t the final stage either, as afterwards, there’s the fragmentation and creation of microplastics to consider, as well as cascading exposures as plastic degrades, and finally, ongoing and continuing environmental exposures over the hundreds of years plastic remains before it disintegrates completely.. This report breaks new ground, as thus far, there’s been little systematic attention to the collective problems created by the ubiquitous and increasing use of plastic throughout its lifecycle – from when the fossil fuel is extracted from the ground, to final waste disposal – and what happens to plastic that finds its way into the environment: To date, discussions of the health and environmental impacts of plastic have usually focused on specific moments in the plastic lifecycle: during use and after disposal. However, the lifecycle of plastic and its related human health impacts extends far beyond these two stages in both directions: upstream, during feedstock extraction, transport, and manufacturing, and downstream, when plastic reaches the environment and degrades into micro- and nanoplastics. Increasing research and investigation are providing new insights into the hidden, pervasive impacts of micro- and nanoplastics on human health and the environment (report, p.6).
TransCanada gets OK to put part of WV Mountaineer natgas pipe in service Feb 25 (Reuters) - U.S. energy regulators on Monday approved TransCanada Corp’s request to put part of the company’s $3.2 billion Mountaineer XPress natural gas pipeline in West Virginia into service:
- * Specifically, the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) authorized TransCanada to commence service on about 21 miles (34 kilometers) of pipeline in Marshall and Wetzel Counties, among other things.
- * TransCanada said earlier this month that the Mountaineer pipeline was about 45 percent complete and expected to finish the rest of the project in February and March.
- * When TransCanada started work on Mountaineer early last year, it estimated it would complete the project by the end of 2018 at a cost of $2.6 billion.
- * The company boosted that cost estimate to $3.0 billion in April 2018 and $3.2 billion in February 2019 due to delays of various regulatory approvals, increased contractor construction costs, and inclement weather throughout construction, among other things.
- * In addition, the company has also said it plans to put its $600 million Gulf XPress gas pipeline into service along with Mountaineer.
- * The Mountaineer and Gulf projects are two of several pipes designed to connect growing output in the Marcellus and Utica shale basins in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio with customers elsewhere in the United States and Canada.
- * The 2.6-billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) Mountaineer project includes 170 miles of new pipeline in West Virginia, while the 0.88-bcfd Gulf project includes seven new compressor stations in Kentucky, Tennessee and Mississippi.
- * One billion cubic feet is enough gas to power about 5 million U.S. homes for a day.
- * New pipelines built to remove gas from the Marcellus and Utica have enabled shale drillers to boost Appalachia output to a record 31.6 bcfd in February versus 26.9 bcfd in the same month a year ago.
- * That represents about 38 percent of the nation’s total dry gas output of 83.3 bcfd in 2018. A decade ago, Appalachia produced just 1.6 bcfd, or 3 percent, of the country’s total output.
Energy Transfer CEO: ‘We’ve made mistakes’ in building Mariner East - Sunoco’s parent company admitted it made mistakes in building the Mariner East pipelines through Pennsylvania, and told investors that it will do better in future, but its assurances failed to persuade critics that the project will become any safer for the public or more protective of the environment. During a Feb. 21 conference call with financial analysts to discuss results for the fourth quarter of 2018, Energy Transfer’s chief executive, Kelcy Warren, appeared to acknowledge the succession of spills, shutdowns and sinkholes that have bedeviled the project during the two-year construction.“We’ve made mistakes and we are correcting those mistakes and will not make those mistakes again,” Warren said, in answer to an analyst’s question on whether the company has any “learnings from the past to execute better.”Warren acknowledged the problems the project has faced in Pennsylvania, and said that going forward, the company will “complete good projects” in a way that will control costs.“We’ve learned so much,” he said in a recording of the call on the company’s website. “We’re going to take our medicine and fix those mistakes and complete good projects going forward. We’ve made some mistakes we’re not proud of, so you’ll see that improve and when we don’t make those mistakes again then our costs are going to improve and the predictability of those costs are likewise going to improve.”He also implied that the company faces stricter regulation in Pennsylvania than in its home state of Texas, saying: “Every place is not Texas.” Warren did not specify any of the mistakes, describe the corrective action, or say what prompted his decision to admit the company’s mistakes during the construction project.
Mariner East 2 construction to restart in area of Chester County where water damage occurred -- Energy Transfer, parent company of Sunoco Pipeline, plans to restart drilling in an area of Chester County where previous Mariner East 2 construction activity damaged 15 private drinking water wells in July 2017. The company sent letters to residents near the Shoen Road drill site informing them that horizontal directional drilling could begin as soon as March 6. The notifications are required under a consent order agreed to by the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection and Sunoco officials in July 2017. Residents living along Valley View Drive in West Whiteland Township, Chester County, first noticed cloudy water flowing from their taps over the July 4 holiday weekend in 2017. It turned out Sunoco's drilling operations had broken through the aquifer, and disrupted the flow of clean drinking water to about 15 households at the time. They lost drinking water, as well as the ability to bathe. The company temporarily housed several residents in hotels, and some households permanently lost access to their private well water. On July 13, Sunoco stopped drilling at the site and has not drilled there since. The DEP laid out conditions for re-starting construction, which Sunoco had met in February last year. Given the notification requirements laid out in the original order, DEP spokeswoman Virginia Cain said the agency still has to confirm residential notices before the company can begin drilling in the Shoen Road area. Valley View Drive homeowners David Mano and Diane Salter say that although they received notification of the drilling activity, they did not receive information about how the company will protect their water.
Mariner East pipeline target of possible Chester County Commission legal action - The Chester County commissioners said Thursday that they are seeking to join a legal challenge against Sunoco’s Mariner East pipeline and also are ending an agreement to grant the company access to some county land.“Time and again, Sunoco has been severely lacking in effective communication and transparency and we have no choice but to take these formal measures,” said Michelle Kichline, chair of the commissioners. “Even with the groundswell of activity and appeals from elected officials, grassroots organizations and residents affected by the pipeline, the company is not playing ball. We have no confidence that they ever will and we are done with trying to get answers on our own."The Mariner East is planned to bring natural gas liquids from the Marcellus and Utica Shale via a 20-inch pipeline. Natural gas liquids are defined as propane, ethane and butane. Plans call for new pipeline to be buried, as well as upgrades made to existing pipelines. Chester County commissioners had already notified the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission (PUC) earlier this year about their “growing concern” over issues such as a lack of communication and failed repeated attempts by the county to get information related to Mariner East, specifically about a sinkhole. The PUC has regulatory authority regarding the pipeline.
Route modifications push one mile of PennEast pipeline into Monroe County - Modifications to the Pennsylvania portion of PennEast’s natural gas pipeline reduced the project’s length by about a mile, but now place Monroe County in its path. The four proposed route changes require less land and call for shallower drilling in certain areas, causing less harm to the environment, PennEast officials said. But one mile of the 116-mile pipeline will extend into Eldred Township, crossing two properties there, one of which is owned by the Pennsylvania Game Commission. Pipeline opponents took issue with the changes announced Feb. 15, mainly because the public has only three weeks to comment on them. In a Feb. 20 filing, the Delaware River Keeper Network urged the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to extend the March 8 deadline for public comment. The network also made a similar request of the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, which is reviewing permits for the pipeline. Delaware Riverkeeper Maya Van Rossum said it’s not clear to her organization whether the DEP is reviewing the modified route or the original one given preliminary approval by FERC last January. A spokesperson from the DEP did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Woman who sued natural gas driller Range Resources testifies before grand jury - Stephanie Hallowich, a Washington County woman who sued Range Resources and two other companies in 2010 over alleged air and water contamination at her Mt. Pleasant, Pa. home, testified before an investigative grand jury in Pittsburgh on Tuesday, said her attorney, Peter Villari. Attorney General Josh Shapiro recently empaneled a grand jury to investigate “environmental crimes” in Washington County. A letter from one of his deputies, obtained by The Allegheny Front and StateImpact Pennsylvania, refers to an investigation involving Range Resources, one of the state’s leading natural gas drilling companies. The existence of the grand jury was first reported by the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. One woman, June Chappel of Washington County, told the Post-Gazette that she testified about health problems she’d experienced because of noise and odors from a waste impoundment and flaring from gas wells built by Range Resources near her home. The letter from Shapiro’s office asked attorneys in a different lawsuit involving Range Resources to preserve documents and evidence in their case. The letter, signed by Courtney M. Butterfield, deputy attorney general, said the Attorney General’s office had “assumed jurisdiction over several criminal investigations involving environmental crimes in Washington County” and that “one of the potential criminal investigations involves your respective clients.” The letter is headlined “Stacey Haney/Range Resources Investigation.” In 2012, Stacey Haney, an Amwell Township woman, sued Range Resources, claiming the company and its contractors polluted the air, water and soil at a location near her home known as the Yeager site. The suit claimed the pollution resulted in health impacts for her family and the deaths of a family dog and goat. In addition, the suit alleged Range Resources and two contracted laboratories committed fraud and conspiracy by manipulating test results to obscure their findings from the Haneys and their neighbors. The case was settled in September. The settlement is sealed, but the Post-Gazette is suing to have the agreement made public. In 2014, the DEP imposed a $4.15 million penalty on the company for violations at six waste water impoundments in Washington County, including one at the Yeager site. The case was detailed by journalist Eliza Griswold in the book “Amity and Prosperity.”
Economy Residents Putting Up Fight As Fracking Company Trying To Turn Residential Road Into Access Road (KDKA) – “I bought a house in a residential neighborhood. It was never intended to be in an area where there is an industrial site whatsoever.” That is the feeling among many Economy residents as a drilling company is threatening to move in. Not only does the company want to put a drill pad next to the neighborhood, it also wants to take over a residential road and turn it into an access road. As drilling increases across Beaver and Butler countries so does the opposition. At the Chestnut Ridge housing development in Economy folks are organizing against a proposed drilling pad just beyond their own backyards. “This is the reason we live up here it’s nice and quiet and the peaceful existence here and to have this industry come in is going to overturn all of that,” said Steve White, the group’s organizer. PennEnergy Resources plans to build the pad off of narrow and twisting Amsler Ridge Road and residents fear the noise of heavy truck traffic and the attendant danger. Photo Credit: KDKA “It doesn’t belong here,” said Laurel Beitsinger. “We have families, children walking the road, bicycling whatever. It isn’t right.” The borough has already issued a permit for the pad, but for PennEnergy to use Amsler Ridge for an access road, council must also lift the weight restrictions. And these folks have been showing up en masse at council meetings to urge members to vote no. For its part, PennEnergy says it will repave the road, station flagmen to regulate traffic and erect sound barriers if the noise becomes a nuisance.
One Pennsylvania Town Shows How to Properly 'Zone' Fracking - Pennsylvania is home to more than 10,000 fracking wells, which forces communities to live with air pollution, water contamination and an array of health problems linked to drilling. The frackers want to drill more wells, and the state's Democratic governor is not going to do anything to slow it down. But local communities are finding ways to fight back—and win. Residents of Oakmont Borough, a small suburb of Pittsburgh along the Allegheny River have waged a years-long battle against the fracking industry, which has been making a determined push into Allegheny County. The fracking industry has problems turning a profit. The only way out for these financially stretched corporations is to double down—and that means moving to areas of the state that aren't as heavily fracked as some parts of western Pennsylvania.Residents in Allegheny County have seen the havoc that fracking has created elsewhere, and they are determined to fight to keep it away from their schools and homes. Their tool of choice has been municipal zoning codes. Every city or municipality creates a set of rules about what you can build, and where you can build it. Unfortunately, drilling companies often take advantage of the fact that many towns have not developed zoning ordinances that regulate fracking, or have outdated ordinances that do not address the issues facing their municipalities today. But if residents and local leaders get organized, they can put serious limits on the fracking industry before a well is approved.That's what Food & Water Watch's Municipal Ordinance Project (MOP) is set up to do. We know that local officials in Allegheny County are the ones who should make the decisions about how to protect their own communities, and that safety and environmental concerns are front and center.
BL England decision may doom N.J. pipeline but natural gas projects still on - The demise of the B.L. England power plant appears to doom a 22-mile gas pipeline through the Pinelands to the facility, an outcome widely welcomed by opponents, many of whom favor a moratorium on all new fossil-fuel projects in New Jersey.“By stopping the fossil fuel plant and rendering the unwarranted pipeline moot, it sets the right course for 100 percent renewables by 2050,’’ said Amy Goldsmith, state director for Clean Water Action, referring to a Murphy administration goal.Perhaps so. But on the day after RC Cape May Holdings announced it was abandoning plans to repower its coal units with natural gas, New Jersey Natural Gas asked the state to allow it to invest $507 million over five years to enhance the reliability of its gas system.South Jersey Gas, which had waged a long and expensive battle to build the pipeline to supply fuel to the B.L. England plant, announced it would seek alternative solutions to back up 142,000 customers in Atlantic and Cape May counties with supplies of natural gas, part of the rationale behind the 22-mile pipeline project.Elizabethtown Gas, also owned by South Jersey Industries, the parent of South Jersey Gas, also wants to spend $500 million to replace old cast-iron gas mains in its system. The decision to shut down B.L. England all but kills off the justification for the pipeline’s approval by the Pinelands Commission and New Jersey Board of Public Utilities, according to a letter from the New Jersey Attorney General’s office.
Company fined $6,100 for Naugatuck River oil spill - (AP) - The Environmental Protection Agency has fined a Connecticut company $6,100 for an oil spill that left the Naugatuck River covered in a sheen for days last year.The Republican-American reports that Global Brass and Copper agreed to pay the fine and take measures to prevent another spill.The January 2018 spill came from the company's Somers Thin Strip plant inWaterbury.EPA spokesman John Senn says a valve on an external cooling tank ruptured, likely from extreme cold. He says the company has since remodeled so the valve is no longer outside and updated its spill prevention plan.A company attorney says the ruptured valve was noticed within 30 minutes and workers took "immediate action" to address the problem. Naugatuck River Revival Group founder Kevin Zak called the fine "shameful."
Update On Natural Gas Hook-Ups In New England -- February 27, 2019 - From Chesto over at The Boston Globe: The municipal utilities that serve Holyoke and Middleborough just imposed separate moratoriums on new natural gas hookups, citing supply constraints. The two biggest gas providers in Massachusetts, National Grid and Eversource, say their supplies are adequate for now. But some in the industry speculate that we’re approaching a major inflection point, as the region’s strained pipeline system shows signs of failing to keep up with demand. Pipeline expansions get more difficult to build politically every year. To the anti-gas forces in the environmental community, the moratoriums reaffirm their arguments about the need to wean Massachusetts off the fossil fuel.That won't be easy. Natural gas remains a dominant fuel source for New England’s power plants. It also remains the preferred heat source for any new developments -- except in the growing list of communities with moratoriums in place. These bans on new hookups started popping up in Western Massachusetts about four years ago. Berkshire Gas imposed moratoriums in an eight-town region stretching from Greenfield to Amherst; Columbia Gas did the same next door, in Easthampton and Northampton. Northeast Energy Direct, the controversial Kinder Morgan pipeline proposal, could have helped ease the pain there. But resistance was too strong, and Kinder Morgan nixed it. Berkshire informed its waiting list of 300-plus potential new customers last fall that no help would be coming soon.The capacity issues in that area eventually caught up with Holyoke Gas & Electric, which imposed its own moratorium on new service on Jan. 28. Columbia Gas is pursuing projects to increase circulation in the Springfield area. But those, too, face formidable opposition.
U.S. Approves $3.2B Appalachian Natural Gas Pipeline - TransCanada said on Friday that the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) had approved the full in-service of the Mountaineer XPress natural gas pipeline project, which will help link the Appalachian basin’s natural gas supplies and growing markets in the U.S. and beyond.The Mountaineer XPress (MXP) project includes a 170-mile natural gas pipeline in West Virginia that will increase natural gas capacity by 2.7 billion cubic feet per day and together with related infrastructure—new compressor stations and modifications to existing compressor stations—represents a total investment of US$3.2 billion.The approval of the full in-service of Mountaineer XPress will allow TransCanada to start partial in-service of its Gulf XPress Project, a network of seven new compressor stations in Kentucky, Tennessee, and Mississippi, which will significantly increase the reach of low-cost, U.S.-produced natural gas from the Appalachian Basin. Investment in Gulf XPress is some US$600 million, according to TransCanada. The start of the Gulf XPress project includes placing into service four new compressor stations located in Kentucky, Tennessee, and Mississippi, which are expected to provide additional capacity of 530,000 million cubic feet of natural gas per day on the Columbia Gulf Transmission System. Gulf XPress is expected to begin full service in the coming weeks, TransCanada said in a statement. Both the Gulf XPress and the Mountaineer XPress are underpinned by long-term contracts with customers, the Canadian pipeline operator noted. “Mountaineer XPress and Gulf XPress are extremely important to TransCanada as they provide much-needed takeaway capacity for our customers, while also growing our extensive footprint in the Appalachian Basin,”
MVP asks state board to discontinue process aimed at stopping pipeline construction - Facing another snag in a complex permitting process, the developers of the largest natural gas pipeline ever built in Southwest Virginia are pushing back. In a Feb. 12 letter to state regulators, an attorney for the Mountain Valley Pipeline asked the State Water Control Board to discontinue a process it started last year that could lead to the revocation of a water quality certification for project, which has been cited repeatedly for violating environmental standards. The water board is scheduled to meet Friday to discuss the details of a future revocation hearing. “Mountain Valley accepts that this project has been, and continues to be, perhaps the most heavily scrutinized construction project in Virginia’s history,” the company said in a letter to David Paylor, director of the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality and executive secretary of the water board. With so much scrutiny already, and with the project more than halfway done, it would serve little purpose to consider revoking the certification at this point, wrote Todd Normane, deputy general counsel for Equitrans Midstream Corp., an affiliated company in the joint venture. And even if the board were to reverse its earlier approval, Normane wrote, Mountain Valley would still hold a valid license from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, the lead agency overseeing construction of the 303-mile pipeline through the two Virginias. “Unilateral action by the board at this time cannot amend or invalidate that license or otherwise block construction,” his letter stated. A spokeswoman for FERC declined to comment.
Bills to protect landowners in pipeline cases fail - Landowners fighting to keep their property from being taken by pipeline building companies will continue footing the legal bills after two bills failed in the House. Sen. Chap Petersen, D-Fairfax, said he introduced the bills to give landowners who don’t want pipeline construction on their land a fair chance against Dominion, Duke Energy, Piedmont Natural Gas, Southern Gas and other companies involved in the Atlantic Coast Pipeline. SB 1404 would have required pipeline companies to pick the costs incurred by homeowners in eminent domain legal battles. SB 1403sought to amend state law and require the entities acquiring the property to pay all costs of court proceedings. It also would have required pipeline companies to provide compensation for homeowners. The compensation would have been at least 25 percent more than the company’s initial offer for the land. Because the pipeline project was approved by the Federal Energy Regulation Commission, the companies may invoke eminent domain — a right given to the government to take property for public use — if landowners refuse to accept compensation for their property. “The pipeline companies have all the power, in the General Assembly and in condemning the property of small landowners,” Petersen stated after the bills failed. “My bills would have leveled the playing field in a small way. The House just missed it. We’ll be back.” The Atlantic Coast Pipeline is a 600-mile underground pipeline that would deliver natural gas from West Virginia to the southwest region of the state and North Carolina. Over 85 percent of affected landowners have entered into easement agreements to allow construction, according to the project website. Those landowners received compensation. The remaining easements needed to begin construction are being challenged in court.
Court won't revisit ruling that tossed Atlantic Coast Pipeline's permit to cross Appalachian Trail- A federal appeals court on Monday denied a request to reconsider a ruling throwing out a permit for the Atlantic Coast Pipeline to cross two national forests, including parts of the Appalachian Trail. The 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals rejected a request from lead pipeline developer Dominion Energy and the U.S. Forest Service to hold a full-court rehearing. In December, a three-judge panel of the 4th Circuit sharply criticized the Forest Service, saying the agency lacked authority to authorize the pipeline’s crossing of the trail. The panel also said the agency “abdicated its responsibility to preserve national forest resources” when it approved the pipeline crossing the George Washington and Monongahela National Forests, and a right-of-way across the Appalachian Trial. “We trust the United States Forest Service to ‘speak for the trees, for the trees have no tongues,’ ” the judges wrote in December’s ruling, quoting the Dr. Seuss classic “The Lorax” to summarize their decision. The ruling came in a lawsuit filed by the Southern Environmental Law Center on behalf of the Sierra Club, Virginia Wilderness Committee and other environmental groups. Representatives for Dominion Energy and the Forest Service declined immediate comment.
Dominion to ask Supreme Court to hear pipeline appeal (AP) — Dominion Energy said Tuesday it will ask the U.S. Supreme Court to hear its appeal after a lower court refused to reconsider a ruling tossing out a permit that would have allowed the Atlantic Coast Pipeline to cross two national forests, including parts of the Appalachian Trail. Lead pipeline developer Dominion said it expects the filing of an appeal in the next 90 days. On Monday, the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals rejected a request for a full-court rehearing from Dominion and the U.S. Forest Service. A three-judge panel ruled in December that the Forest Service lacks the authority to authorize the trail crossing and had "abdicated its responsibility to preserve national forest resources" when it approved the pipeline crossing the George Washington and Monongahela National Forests, as well as a right-of-way across the Appalachian Trial. The 605-mile (974-kilometer) natural gas pipeline would originate in West Virginia and run through North Carolina and Virginia. The appellate ruling came in a lawsuit filed by the Southern Environmental Law Center on behalf of the Sierra Club, Virginia Wilderness Committee and other environmental groups. The denial "sends the Atlantic Coast Pipeline back to the drawing board," the law center and Sierra Club said in a joint statement on Monday. The groups said they believe it is impossible to build the pipeline "without causing massive landslides and threatening the Appalachian Trail and our clean water." Dominion said it is pursuing "legislative and administrative options" in addition to seeking Supreme Court review. "We are confident that the U.S. Departments of Interior and Agriculture have the authority to resolve the Appalachian Trail crossing issue administratively in a manner that satisfies the Court's stated objection," the company said in its statement.
The Atlantic Coast Pipeline Fight Could Go to the Supreme Court - The fight over the controversial Atlantic Coast Pipeline may be headed to the Supreme Court.Dominion Energy, the lead developer of the project that would carry fracked natural gas for 605 miles through West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina, said Tuesday it would appeal to the nation's highest court after an appeals court refused to reconsider its decision to throw out a crucial permit for the project on Monday, The Associated Press reported.Dominion and the U.S. Forest Service had asked the fourth U.S. Court of Appeals for a re-hearing of the court's December 2018 decision to toss the U.S. Forest Service permit allowing the pipeline to cross the George Washington and Monongahela National Forests as well as part of the Appalachian Trail. The court refused.The court had ruled in December that the U.S. Forest Service did not have the authority to grant the pipeline company permission to cross the Appalachian Trail. “The Fourth Circuit's decision, now final, confirmed that this pipeline has to play by the same rules as everybody else," Southern Environmental Law Center (SELC) Senior Attorney D.J. Gerken said in a press release. "The Forest Service has never approved a new pipeline across the Appalachian Trail — but, under intense political pressure, it did for Atlantic, while ignoring routes that would avoid the forest. Atlantic could reroute, but instead it should scrap this boondoggle and stop running up a bill it wants to stick to customers."The SELC brought the lawsuit that resulted in December's decision on behalf of the Sierra Club, the Virginia Wilderness Committee and other environmental groups. Dominion said it would file an appeal with the Supreme Court within 90 days, The Associated Press reported. It is also seeking "legislative and administrative options" in case the Supreme Court refuses to hear its case, thought it did not specify what those might be.
Need for Atlantic Coast Pipeline (ACP) Under Suspicion Now - The demand the huge Atlantic Coast Pipeline was intended to meet is disappearing, according to documents from the corporations behind the project. Dominion and Duke Energy own almost all of the pipeline, as well as the electric utilities it would supply with natural gas. When applying for a federal permit, they argued it was needed to meet rising electricity demand in North Carolina and coastal Virginia. But Cathy Kunkel, an energy analyst with the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, said utility filings in those states now show the outlook has changed dramatically – in part because of competition from cheap, renewable energy. “Dominion is not projecting any increase in natural-gas demand until 2032,” Kunkel said. “Duke is still planning to build some natural-gas plants, but most of that has shifted to the late 2020s.“ The energy companies say they need more pipeline capacity to move fracked gas out of the Marcellus and Utica fields of northern West Virginia, where the price for it is artificially depressed by a transportation bottleneck. Dominion is now telling regulators in Virginia that it expects demand for electricity from natural gas to stay essentially flat for the next decade and a half. The 600-mile pipeline across the three states has faced a number of setbacks, including lawsuits by landowners and conservationists. It was recently announced that the total cost of the project would rise to $7.5 billion, and its opening would be delayed until 2021. If the builders can get state utility regulators’ approval, they can shift the full expense of the line onto ratepayers, along with a guaranteed profit. But Kunkel said investors in the utilities may be starting to worry about the financial risks. “The project has been delayed by these court challenges, it’s also over-budget,” she said. “And if the state regulators say, ‘You clearly don’t need all of the gas capacity that you signed up for here; we’re not going to let you charge it to your ratepayers,‘ then that would be a very significant blow.“
Extreme cold in the Midwest led to high power demand and record natural gas demand - Extreme cold weather in the Midwest at the end of January led to high—but not record-setting—electricity load on Wednesday, January 30, 2019, the coldest day of the period, on the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) grid. However, consumption of natural gas, the main fuel used for heating in the region, reached estimated record levels on the same day. Natural gas and electricity prices were elevated but did not reach levels seen during previous cold weather events in recent years. Compared with the 2018 bomb cyclone and the 2014 polar vortex weather events, the January 2019 polar vortex was significantly colder, with Upper Midwest temperatures dropping to as low as -20 to -45 degrees Fahrenheit. However, hourly electricity load in MISO peaked at 100.9 gigawatts (GW) on January 30, 2019, based on preliminary data, compared with 100 to 104 GW during the 2018 bomb cyclone and MISO’s all-time winter peak of 109.3 GW reached during the 2014 polar vortex. Peak electricity loads during the 2019 event were lower than expected because of the deployment of load-modifying resources in MISO (which includes demand response and behind-the-meter generation), other voluntary load management actions, and the wide closure of schools and businesses, which reduced non-residential sector electricity demand. In contrast to electricity demand, an estimated record amount of natural gas was consumed by the residential/commercial sector (26.1 billion cubic feet (Bcf)) and overall (37.9 Bcf) in the Midwest on January 30, 2019, when many people stayed home. Natural gas is the main fuel used in the region for residential and commercial space heating. Midwest natural gas withdrawals from storage for the week ending February 1, 2019, contributed to the largest net withdrawal of working natural gas in the Lower 48 states so far during the 2018–2019 heating season.
Prices End Higher As Winter Lingers On - Highlights of the Natural Gas Summary and Outlook for the week ending February 22, 2019 follow. The full report is available at the link below.
- Price Action: The March contract rose 9.2 cents (3.5%) to $2.717 on a 12.6 cent range ($2.726/$2.600).
- Price Outlook: After posting both a new high and low last week, a miniscule 12.6 cent range left prices within last week’s 20.1 cent range ($2.744/$2.543) for a rare inside week. Considering the bullish weather forecasts and a still relatively low price level, it seems more likely that a new high is made next week. CFTC data indicated a (13,735) contract reduction in the managed money net long position as longs liquidated and shorts added. Total open interest fell (317)to 3.511 million as of February 05. Aggregated CME futures open interest fell to 1.167 million as of February 22. The is the lowest open interest since January 25, 2017.
- Weekly Storage: US working gas storage for the week ending February 15 indicated a withdrawal of (177) bcf. Working gas inventories fell to 1,705 bcf. Current inventories fall (55)bcf (-3.1%) below last year and fall (379) bcf (-18.2%) below the 5-year average.
- Supply Trends: Total supply fell (1.4) bcf/d to 82.7 bcf/d. US production rose. Canadian imports fell. LNG imports fell. LNG exports rose. Mexican exports fell. The US Baker Hughes rig count fell (4). Oil activity decreased (4). Natural gas activity was unchanged +0. The total US rig count now stands at 1,047 .The Canadian rig count fell (12) to 212. Thus, the total North American rig count fell (16) to 1,259 and now trails last year by (25). The higher efficiency US horizontal rig count rose +1 to 916 and rises +74 above last year.
- Demand Trends: Total demand rose +11.2 bcf/d to +106.2 bcf/d. Power demand rose. Industrial demand rose. Res/Comm demand rose. Electricity demand rose +1,604 gigawatt-hrs to 77,789 which exceeds last year by +2,477 (3.3%) and exceeds the 5-year average by 994 (1.3%%).
- Nuclear Generation: Nuclear generation fell (1,625)MW in the reference week to 91,544 MW. This is +1,230 MW higher than last year and +1,386 MW higher than the 5-year average. Recent output was at 90,094 MW.
The heating season has begun. With a forecast through March 8 the 2018/19 total heating index is at (2,554) compared to (2,243) for 2017/18, (1,985) for 2016/17, (2,075) for 2015/16, (2,524) for 2014/15, (2,733) for 2013/14, (2,459) for 2012/13 and (2,331) for 2011/12.
March Gas Spikes On Early March Cold And Strong Cash Into Options Expiry -The March natural gas contract shot over 4% higher on the day today as cash prices traded over $2.85 and afternoon model guidance trended even colder for the first third of March. The role of cash and the March options expiry was apparent in how much more the March contract ran out relative to the rest of the futures strip. The result was a flip positive in the March/April H/J spread. Our Morning Update highlighted a significant cold trend over the weekend that let prices gap up last evening. Afternoon model guidance trended even colder in the medium-range too, helping prices run up into the settle (images courtesy of Tropical Tidbits). Our mid-day Note of the Day for subscribers which went out a bit before 11 AM Eastern warned of bullish short-term data that would keep the March contract strong into tomorrow's expiry. This verified well, as prices shot higher today. Part of this has been due to continued tight balances, with LNG exports at record levels playing a role. It should be an exciting day tomorrow as volatility has returned to the natural gas market and the March contract heads towards expiry.
Winter Gas Is Off The Board - The March natural gas contract expired up half a percent on the day at 2:30 PM Eastern, and with that the last contract of Winter 2018/2019 went off the board. The March contract was the only one up on the day, with April selling off the most on warmer mid-day model guidance. The result was the strongest March/April spread expiration since 2014. Yet other spreads, such as April/October, actually tried to put in a short-term high today. Meanwhile, cash was incredibly strong, trading over $2.9 through the morning session and propping the front of the strip up. Afternoon weather model guidance then moderated quite a bit, with the 12z GEFS far warmer in the 12-16 Day time period (images courtesy of Tropical Tidbits). In our Morning Update today we held a "Neutral" sentiment as despite strong cash prices and the potential for a March bounce into expiry we highlighted risks that forecasts into Week 3 would warm with 12z model guidance being less impressive. This worked out well, and we also released our weekly Seasonal Trader Report with our long-range gas forecast that looked at just how much March may be able to warm. In it we dove deeper into an increasing El Nino signal upstream. The April contract now takes over as traders turn to March weather forecasts and Thursday's EIA number to see where natural gas prices should head from here.
EIA Reports 166 Bcf Storage Draw, April Natural Gas Gains Trimmed - The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 166 Bcf withdrawal from storage for the week ending Feb. 22. The reported draw compares to the year-ago draw of 85 Bcf and the five-year average draw of 104 Bcf. The print was on the lower end of a rather tight range of estimates that ranged from a 160 Bcf to 180 Bcf pull. NGI’s model predicted a withdrawal of 167 Bcf. Natural gas futures traders responded immediately to the slightly lower-than-expected draw, trimming early-morning gains. The Nymex April gas futures contract was trading nearly 3 cents higher at $2.827 just before the storage report’s 10:30 a.m. ET release, but then slid to around $2.81 in the minutes after the print hit the screen. By 11 a.m., the prompt month was trading at $2.816, up 1.7 cents. “This was at the lower end of expectations and indicates slightly more holiday impact last week than expected,” said Bespoke Weather Services, which had called for a 174 Bcf withdrawal. A Reuters poll of 19 market analysts showed a withdrawal range of 160 Bcf to 179 Bcf, and a median of 171 Bcf, while a Bloomberg survey of 13 analysts showed a withdrawal range of 165 Bcf to 180 Bcf, with a median draw of 173 Bcf. Broken down by region, the EIA reported a 51 Bcf withdrawal in the Midwest, a 51 Bcf draw in the South Central, a 41 Bcf pull in the East and a 16 Bcf pull in the Pacific. Genscape Inc., which had predicted a 169 Bcf withdrawal, said its daily supply and demand estimates showed a 0.6 Bcf/d production increase week/week for the period, along with a 0.3 Bcf/d increase in imports from Canada. “Demand was relatively flat week on week, with a modest uptick in power burn,” and liquefied natural gas sendout “somewhat offset by lower residential/commercial demand and flat industrial demand and exports from Mexico,” Genscape said. While the overall 166 Bcf draw was not all that surprising to market observers, the large pulls in the South Central region and Pacific did give some pause to market observers on Enelyst, a social media platform hosted by The Desk. The Pacific region specifically has seen significant storage drawdowns in recent weeks as wet, chilly conditions continue to drive up demand at the same time that import restrictions have been in place. Working gas in storage as of Feb. 22 stood at 1,539 Bcf, 154 Bcf below last year and 424 Bcf below the five-year average of 1,963 Bcf, according to EIA.
Exploding Cash Pulls April Gas Higher - What started seemingly like a relatively slow day in the natural gas space quickly turned exciting as physical gas prices shot higher through the morning. Next day Henry Hub cash spent much of the morning over the $3.2 level, pulling the April contract slightly over $2.87 before it pulled back slightly. The cash-led nature of the rally was clear with the April contract leading through the day with winter eventually catching a bid later in the day. The result was that the April/May contract approached flat levels, which it has not been at since late January. This spread is far stronger than it has been at any point in the last several years besides 2014. In our Morning Update we highlighted that with "near term cold likely keeping cash firm, and stronger prices for next winter, we can test the 2.85 level..." which played out well this morning on cash strength. This was more on our reading of balance and spreads versus overnight GWDD additions, which were not particularly impressive. Afternoon model guidance was mainly mixed too, showing some lingering cold risks Week 2 despite warmth being able to return in the Southeast. This came as the market shook off what was a slightly unimpressive EIA number yesterday. Now, traders are positioning for the weekend after this cash move pulled prices higher. The Climate Prediction Center sees mixed risks in their long-range forecast; this forecast would look for colder risks in the center of the country with some warmer risks in the East.
Bills Criminalizing Pipeline Protest Arise in Statehouses Nationwide - The oil and gas industry has started its 2019 lobbying efforts with a bang. Eight different statehouses across the nation are considering bills criminalizing protests on property owned by the the oil and gas industry which critics say could squelch pipeline protesters and others calling attention to climate change-causing infrastructure.The bills offer steep criminal penalties for trespass onto oil and gas industry-owned private property defined as “critical infrastructure” under state law. The legal definition of “critical infrastructure,” which incorporates essentially all assets serving as the bedrock of the current economic system, has greatly expanded in the post-September 11 era. With that expansion came increasingly harsh criminal enforcement mechanisms available to prosecutors in the name of protecting national security. It is no coincidence that the bills are rolling out simultaneously with nearly identical language, in various states. The Real News has traced these bills back to model bills emanating from two organizations, the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) and the Council of State Governments (CSG), both of which receive generous financial backing from the oil and gas industry. In turn, the organizations serve as facilitators for doling out model legislation to state legislators. In the first month of the year, Indiana, Wyoming, Illinois, Mississippi, Pennsylvania, North Dakota, Idaho, and Ohio have all taken this template-based model legislation under consideration, which mirrors two bills passed in Oklahoma in 2017. Sandwiching them together as one, ALEC created the Critical Infrastructure Protection Act at one of its annual meetings held in December 2017. And the lobbyists and legislators involved in the organization in the room that day gave it a “yes” vote.
U.S. House passes bill funding conservation via drilling royalties (Reuters) - The House of Representatives on Tuesday easily passed a public lands bill on Tuesday, as the Senate did earlier this month, that permanently reauthorizes a fund that has funneled billions of dollars into land conservation, paid for by revenues from offshore oil and gas drilling. The bill passed 363-62, representing a rare moment of bipartisan agreement in Congress, with lawmakers eager to see money go to outdoors projects in their states. It permanently reauthorizes the Land and Water Conservation Fund, which was created by Congress in 1964 but which has occasionally been allowed to expire, most recently last September. The Senate voted 92-8 earlier this month on the bill, and President Donald Trump is expected to sign it. Each year about $900 million in royalties paid by energy companies drilling on the U.S. outer continental shelf go to the fund that pays for items from improving ball fields to expanding national parks and wildlife refuges. Representative Raul Grijalva, a Democrat and chairman of the House Natural Resources Committee, called the bill “one of the biggest partisan wins for this country I’ve ever seen in Congress” and thanked Republican colleagues, including Representative Rob Bishop and Senator Lisa Murkowski for compromises on it. Trump is expected to sign the bill even though he has pursued a policy of energy dominance and opening public lands to coal mining and oil and gas drilling. His administration shrunk the Bears Ears National Monument in Utah and has pushed to open part of Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to drilling. The bill creates four national monuments, including the Medgar and Myrlie Evers Home in Mississippi, and prevents industrial mining around others. Medgar Evers was an African-American veteran and civil rights leader who was assassinated in 1963 by a white segregationist.
Groups ask a court to block tests that could harm imperiled Atlantic whales - Conservation groups fighting the Trump administration’s bid to open the Atlantic Ocean to offshore drilling asked a federal court Wednesday to block companies from conducting seismic tests to determine the location of oil and gas deposits. Five companies are awaiting the approval of final government permits allowing them to start what the environmentalists call “ear piercing” tests that can be disruptive to marine life, particularly mammals such as whales and dolphins that use echolocation to communicate and feed. Claiming the issuance of those permits is imminent, as soon as March 1, the groups asked a judge in South Carolina to issue an injunction that would bar seismic testing until a lawsuit they filed against the administration in December can be decided. The December lawsuit claims the National Marine Fisheries Service, a division of the Commerce Department, departed from its mission to protect marine life by issuing permits allowing the five companies to kill fish and mammals as they conduct the tests. The service, also known as NOAA Fisheries, part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said the permits are a procedural step and that it does not expect any animals to be harmed. According to the lawsuit, which relies on scientific studies, “at least 34 marine mammal species” swim in the area where testing would be allowed, south of New Jersey to Florida. They include the North Atlantic right whale, an imperiled species with about 400 remaining and about 100 breeding couples. “Coastal waters from South Carolina to Florida provide the species’ only known calving grounds, and much of its migratory route lies within the survey area,” the lawsuit says.
Saudi Arabia’s Crude Supply to U.S. Gulf Falling Fast and Hard -- Saudi Arabia sliced its crude supply to plants located on the U.S. Gulf Coast, the world’s largest refining center, by more than half from a year ago. And shipments may grind to a complete halt soon. The Middle East’s largest producer is making good on its pledge to reduce deliveries to its biggest American customers in an effort to comply with OPEC’s deal to cut output. Saudi Aramco shipped just 1.6 million barrels of its oil to U.S. Gulf Coast buyers this month compared with 5.75 million a year ago, according to U.S. Customs data compiled by Bloomberg. In January, shipments were at 2.69 million. "We could see Saudi oil imports declining to zero into the U.S. Gulf Coast," said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates in Houston. U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent comment via Twitter that oil prices are too high won’t stem the current declining trend, as "OPEC and non-OPEC members feel prices are too low, and they will do what it takes to put the market back in balance." Government data showed Wednesday that total Saudi crude imports to the U.S dropped to 346,000 barrels a day last week, the lowest in data going back to 2010. However, total Saudi oil flows to America won’t likely flatten out completely because there will be demand from U.S. West Coast refiners, who are faced with limited supply options, Lipow said.
Geopolitical disruptions slash US Gulf crude imports -- OPEC’s reduced oil production and US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran have translated into a considerable fall in crude imports into the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port so far this year. January to date, 8 million barrels of crude have been delivered at LOOP’s delivery point in Morgan City, Louisiana, down 66% from the 24 million barrels recorded in the same period of last year, according to the latest S&P Global Platts Analytics and US Customs Bureau data. In early January, OPEC members committed to cut production levels in line with 1.2 million b/d in the first six months of 2019. As a result, volumes exported by some of its members to the US have diminished to historic levels. In January and February, for example, there have been no imports of Saudi crude to LOOP. The last Saudi cargo it received, some 1.6 million barrels of Arab Light, was unloaded December 19. However, LOOP has gone longer stretches without receiving Saudi crude in the past: none was received from that country for the first five months of 2018. The lack of Saudi crude coming into LOOP – and the US Gulf Coast more broadly – is a stark contrast to previous years, when Saudi Arabia was a major supplier. Some 7 million barrels of Saudi crude was imported at LOOP in 2018, a steep fall compared with 42 million barrels imported in 2017 and 81 million barrels in 2016, the US Customs data showed. Iraq was the main exporter of crude delivered at the port of Morgan City with 60 million barrels in 2018, which is 6 million barrels higher from 2017. Andeavor, which was later bought by Marathon, was the buyer of most of those Iraqi barrels. However, so far in 2019, the volume imported at LOOP from Iraq amounted over 5 million barrels, which is below the 16 million imported in the same period of 2018. A similar situation can be seen with Kuwait, the second-largest exporter to LOOP in 2018, after delivering 11 million barrels in 2018. However, in the first two months of 2019, only one cargo with 963,443 barrels of Kuwait crude has been reported, below 6 million imported in the same period of 2018, the US Customs data showed. In addition to the fewer Saudi barrels available in the US, there have also been dwindling crude imports from Venezuela and Mexico as production has stagnated.Imports of Mexican Maya crude into LOOP amounted to about 6 million barrels in 2018, flat from 2017. However, only 1 million barrels have been recorded in 2019 at the Morgan City area, according to the US Customs data. Mexico is the top crude exporter to the USGC in general.Separately, US refiners in the LOOP region imported nearly 3 million barrels of Venezuelan crude in 2018, down sharply from 8 million barrels recorded in 2017. The last cargo of a Venezuelan grade delivered at the LOOP was October 12, 2018, with Marathon Petroleum as the buyer. As a result of the short supply, sour crude prices along the USGC have skyrocketed in recent months. Front-month Gulf Coast medium sour crude Mars reached its strongest differential in recent history on February 14, when it was assessed at an $8.10/b premium to WTI cash. The differential has not been higher since January 22, 2014, when it was at WTI plus $9.30/b.
BP CEO Dudley- U.S. Shale Is A Market Without A Brain - The U.S. shale industry responds only to oil price signals and is like “a market without brain”, BP’s chief executive Bob Dudley said on Tuesday. “The U.S. is the only country that completely responds to market signals ... like a market without a brain. It just responds to price signals,” Reuters quoted Dudley as saying at the ongoing International Petroleum Week conference in London.“Unlike Saudi Arabia and Russia, which adjust their output in response to gluts or shortages in oil supplies, the U.S. shale market responds purely to oil prices,” said the CEO of the UK oil supermajor, which completed last year a US$10.5-billion deal to buy U.S. shale assets from BHP in what was BP’s biggest acquisition this century, and one that BP will rely on for boosting production and margins. The acquisition adds oil and gas production of 190,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) and 4.6 billion oil equivalent barrels (boe) of discovered resources in the liquids-rich regions of the Permian and Eagle Ford basins in Texas and in the Haynesville natural gas basin in East Texas and Louisiana, BP says.The U.S. shale sector is sensitive to oil prices and drillers respond to them by adding or reducing working rigs, also because shale production is shorter-cycle and easier to switch on and off than complex conventional oil projects. While OPEC and its Russia-led allies have been looking for two years now at supply and demand and adjusting production to avoid another oil glut similar to the one that crashed oil prices in 2014, U.S. shale has been benefiting from the OPEC/non-OPEC coordinated market action and the increase in oil prices over the past two years. Producers have been pumping record amounts of crude oil in the United States, which is already the world’s top oil producer ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The Permian Is A Double-Edged Sword For Oil Majors - The oil majors are scrambling to scale up their shale operations, and they are quickly becoming the most dominant producers in the shale sector, despite having arrived late to the party.The early days of shale drilling was done by small and medium-size drillers. Over the last few years, the oil majors like ExxonMobil and Chevron are taking on a much greater role in U.S. shale, particularly in the Permian basin.Chevron’s Permian production shot up to 377,000 bpd in the fourth quarter of 2018, up 172,000 bpd from a year earlier. The company’s production was up 70 percent on an annual basis.Looking forward, Chevron expects to keep its spending mostly flat in the Permian while ramping up in other basins. “We’ve seen significant reductions in development costs in the Marcellus, in the Duvernay and in the Vaca Muerta, as we’ve shared the learnings and improvements that are emanating from the large-scale activity we have in the Permian, the economics on each of these are compelling,” Wirth said.But even as Chevron boasted of achieving production growth in the Permian as well as transferring the lessons learned to other basins, there are still questions about the profitability of the company’s assets in West Texas. “In the Permian, we remain focused on returns. We’re not chasing our production target, nor are we altering our plans based on the price of the day,” Chevron’s CEO Michael Wirth told analysts on an earnings call. Chevron maintains that it will be cash flow positive in the Permian by 2020 and that the company would allocate much of additional cash flow to shareholder distributions. The company appears confident about the path that it is on in West Texas.
Texas Oil Production Is High, So Why Are Gas Prices On The Rise, Too?Last week, prices at Texas gas pump spiked by 14 cents on average — the highest weekly average in about two years. At a time when the headlines are full of news about plentiful oil in the Permian Basin, shouldn’t gasoline prices in Texas be on the decline? Matt Smith, director of commodity research at ClipperData says oil’s market price, not the amount being pumped, determines how much gas at the pump costs. “Well the reason for it. . . is because of the recent rise in oil prices,” Smith says. “The oil price move has the biggest impact on the underlying price of gasoline. And we’ve seen oil prices rise about a third since Christmastime, and so this is getting priced into the pump.” But the rise isn’t over. “The unfortunate thing is that it works on a lagged basis, so the bad news is we have higher prices ahead of us,” Smith says. And oil prices in Texas aren’t being influenced by the flood of oil from the Permian.“A lot of U.S. refiners are still paying that global benchmark price for oil,” Smith says. “We still import about 8 million barrels a day. . . even though we’re hitting record production levels of 12 million barrels a day. The rising oil price on a global basis is due to a number of factors, including OPEC production cuts, the turmoil in Venezuela, and the sanctions on Iran. And then this global price is hitting the pump on a regional basis.”And the oil being produce in the Permian Basin is not “the right type of oil.” “In the Permian Basin, [it’s] light, sweet, domestic crude which is high-quality stuff. The issue is that the U.S. Gulf refiners are geared towards refining heavier, more sour, low-quality crude. . . that we get from the Middle East, from Venezuela, from these other OPEC members. Even though we may be seeing production continue to rise, U.S. refiners cannot use all of that,” Smith says.
Oil field boom comes with an increase in deadly and serious accidents, study says - The booming Texas energy production has increased jobs in oil field communities across Texas. But it has also led to a rise in traffic fatalities and injuries, according to TXDOT. In 2017, the state's five main oil and gas production regions saw a rise in traffic fatalities (1,614) and injuries (7.422) According to a press release from the Texas Department of Transportation, there are several factors that contribute to these numbers, including weather and road conditions.TxDOT officials say speeding and driver inattention are the main reasons we are seeing a rise in traffic crashes in areas such as the Barnett Shale, Eagle Ford Shale, Granite Wash, Haynesville/Bossier Shale and Permian Basin. The release says alcohol is also a major part of the problem.The title of the release itself states "Traffic Fatalities, Injuries Edge Higher in Energy-Producing Areas of Texas."The statistics are compiled from data collected by the Texas Department of Transportation. This includes many counties in the Eagle Ford Shale, which covers a large part of central and southwest Texas.
Pipeline company paying to relocate residents near spill - The owner of the pipeline that ruptured in December near Berino, spilling 294,000 gallons of gasoline into an irrigation ditch, is now hoping to permanently relocate three residents located near the spill site. Officials of Kinder Morgan, owner of the pipeline, told the Doña Ana County Board of County Commissioners on Tuesday that negotiations have been completed to relocate two renters of houses adjacent to the spill site. Negotiations are continuing with the third resident, who owns all three homes and which sit on a single parcel. Kinder Morgan representatives said those negotiations are progressing and could be completed as soon as this week. The company is seeking to buy the property. Residents were evacuated after the Dec. 13 spill. They have been housed for much of the time since then at hotels. Company officials said it made more sense to relocate them permanently rather than requiring them to continue to stay in hotels until cleanup efforts are complete. “It’s not required by any regulation,” Allen Fore, Kinder Morgan’s vice president of public affairs, told commissioners on Tuesday. “But for the extended inconvenience that it has been to residents, to us this seemed like a better long-term resolution.”
Conservationists fight oil shale plan in eastern Utah (AP) — A coalition of environmental groups objected Tuesday to the U.S. government’s approval of the early stages of an oil shale project near the Utah-Colorado border by a company with ties to Estonia. An intent to sue filed by a coalition including Earthjustice and the Center for Biological Diversity challenges the Bureau of Land Management’s September decision to allow Enefit American Oil to build transmission lines and pipelines on a 19-mile corridor on federal lands. It is the first step required by law before being able to sue. The BLM now has two months to respond. The project “would drain billions of gallons of water from the Green River, threaten endangered species and generate enormous amounts of greenhouse gas pollution,” the coalition said in a news release. Bureau of Land Management spokesman Ryan Sutherland said the agency doesn’t comment on pending lawsuits. Enefit American Oil CEO Ryan Clerico said in an email that production is years away and will require additional government approvals. The company cooperated with officials during the environmental review process, Clerico said. The approved plan is the “best environmental option,” Clerico said. The Utah-based company is a subsidiary of Eesti Energia AS, Estonia’s national energy company. Estonia, a country of 1.3 million people, gets a major chunk of its electricity needs from oil shale. The company has invested $60 million to date in the Utah project, which would produce an estimated 50,000 barrels a day if the site is fully built out, Clerico said. It took six years to get the first governmental approval. Oil shale mining involves higher operating costs than traditional drilling but can be profitable when crude prices are high. That’s not currently the case. The price of crude oil was $55 a barrel Tuesday, down from a peak of $147 in 2008. Oil shale comes from crumbly rock that contains a material called kerogen, which can be heated and separated from the rock and then processed and turned into liquid oil. Utah has been targeted before by oil companies for oil sands mines, but no company has made it all the way through the permitting process and to production. Low oil prices in recent years have reduced the financial incentive.
Weld County oil and gas spill report for Feb. 24 - The following spills were reported to the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission in the past two weeks. Information is based on Form 19, which operators must fill out detailing the leakage/spill events. Any spill release that may impact waters of the state must be reported as soon as practical. Any spill of five barrels or more must be reported within 24 hours, and any spill of one barrel or more, which occurs outside secondary containment, such as metal or earthen berms, must also be reported within 24 hours, according to COGCC rules. Spills and leaks typically are found during routine maintenance on existing wells, though some actual “spills” do occur among the 24,000-plus wells in the county.
- • HIGHPOINT OPERATING CORPORATION, reported Feb. 21 a hauling spill about 10 miles northwest of Wiggins, near Weld County roads 89 and 87. Between five and 100 barrels of drill cuttings and associated mud spilled. A truck driver hauling drill cutting from the rig to the spreadfield lost some of the load on the surface of Weld road 89. The cuttings were loaded too wet, causing the curve to shift when the truck drove around a curve, spilling materials over the side of the side-dump trailer. Materials, which were frozen, were scraped up and removed.
- • NOBLE ENERGY INC, reported Feb. 19 a historical tank battery spill about 2 miles east of LaSalle, near Weld roads 50 and 43. Less than one barrel each of oil, condensate and produced water spilled. Waters of the state were impacted or threatened. Crews found impacts after dismantling the tank battery.
- • NGL WATER SOLUTIONS DJ LLC, reported Feb. 16 a well spill about 5 miles southeast of Galeton, near Colo. 392 and Weld road 61.75. About 200 barrels of produced water spilled. Company officials do not know the details of the spill, but will continue to supplement the initial report.
- • KERR MCGEE OIL & GAS ONSHORE LP, reported Feb. 15 a historical tank battery spill about 4 miles south of LaSalle, near Weld roads 38 and 39. Less than five barrels of oil, condensate and produced water spilled. Crews found impacts after abandoning the production facility.
- • NOBLE ENERGY INC, reported Feb. 15 a historical tank battery spill about 5 miles south of Kersey, near Weld roads 46 and 55. Between one and five barrels each of oil, condensate and produced water spilled. Waters of the state were impacted or threatened. Crews found the spill after dismantling the tank battery.
- • KERR MCGEE OIL & GAS ONSHORE LP,reported Feb. 14 a centralized waste management facility spill about 3 miles northwest of Fort Lupton, near Weld roads 18 and 21. About 30 barrels of tank bottom fluids spilled. A third-party trucking company released the fluids on the ground.
Fracking Reforms Are Coming to the Capitol — and So Is a Climate Bill - Anticipation is mounting at the State Capitol as Democrats prepare to unveil a major package of reforms to Colorado oil and gas law — but as contentious as that fight will undoubtedly be, it might not be the most ambitious energy legislation that lawmakers take up this year.Alongside the long-awaited fracking bill, Democratic leadership is crafting what will likely be Colorado’s most significant piece of climate-change legislation to date: a proposal that would, among other things, dramatically increase the state’s goals for reducing carbon emissions. Details of both efforts are still being kept under wraps, but oil and gas legislation could be introduced as early as next week, with a climate bill following soon afterward. “We hope to introduce legislation in the next few weeks because the time for climate action is now,” House Speaker KC Becker, a Democrat from Boulder, said in a statement on Thursday, February 21. “The administration in Washington is failing to address this challenge, and the broader contours of legislation are still being worked out.” Activists from 350 Colorado and other climate advocacy groups visited the Capitol on Thursday to urge lawmakers to support a wide range of aggressive climate actions, including a halt to new oil and gas drilling, divesting the state’s pension funds, and rapid decarbonization of transportation and agriculture. “We’re really pushing hard for what we believe is in line with climate science,” says Micah Parkin, 350 Colorado’s executive director. “Future generations are dependent on what we do right now, so we’re calling for really bold, science-based action.”
Government: Highway shutdown not aimed at tribe, media (AP) — Government officials say the five-month shutdown of a North Dakota highway during protests against the Dakota Access oil pipeline was not aimed at manipulating the media or the American Indian tribe that has led the protracted fight against the project. Authorities had justifiable cause for closing the stretch of state Highway 1806 that included limiting disruptions to a project deemed by President Donald Trump to be in the national interest, attorneys for Morton County and state officials, including former Gov. Jack Dalrymple, argued in recent court filings in a lawsuit over the shutdown. State Deputy Solicitor General James Nicolai said people he called violent criminals “had infiltrated the protest and turned it from a peaceful protest into a criminal riot.” Their argument comes in response to a lawsuit by Standing Rock Sioux tribal members and others who say the closure was aimed not only at protesters but also at influencing the tribe’s position and the media coverage. The protest in 2016 and 2017 resulted in 761 arrests in six months, most of them near protest camps between the pipeline construction route and the reservation. Two of the camps, including one that morphed into a small city with at times thousands of people, were bordered on another side by the highway. State officials blocked off a stretch of the highway in October 2016 after fires were set on a bridge and didn’t reopen it until March 2017, after repairs and the shutdown of the camps . The $3.8 billion pipeline began moving North Dakota oil to Illinois three months later. A reservation businesswoman, two pipeline opponents and a reservation church priest sued last October over the highway shutdown, seeking unspecified monetary damages from Morton County, its sheriff, several state officials and a company that oversaw private security for Texas-based pipeline developer Energy Transfer Partners.
Injured pipeline protester argues for lawsuit to proceed (AP) — A New York City woman severely injured while protesting the Dakota Access oil pipeline in North Dakota says she deserves an opportunity to gather more evidence from the government to prove her claim in federal court that she was intentionally targeted with a concussion grenade. Attorneys for Sophia Wilansky are fighting a government effort to have her lawsuit thrown out for lack of proof that her civil rights were violated due to excessive force by law enforcement. Wilansky suffered a left arm injury in an explosion during a violent November 2016 clash between police and opponents of the $3.8 billion pipeline that Texas-based Energy Transfer Partners built to move North Dakota oil to Illinois. She maintains she has limited use of the arm despite five surgeries and seeks millions of dollars for alleged excessive force, assault, negligence, emotional distress and defamation. Wilansky sued local and state law enforcement officials and Morton County in November, alleging that an unknown law officer threw a flashbang device directly at her. Government officials maintain the explosion was caused by a propane canister that protesters rigged to explode, and last month they asked a federal judge to dismiss the lawsuit , saying there is no evidence officers violated her rights through excessive force. Wilansky’s attorneys in their response filed Monday note that the two sides have not yet exchanged evidence and also assert that the government’s claims fall flat. “The law is unambiguous that intentionally targeting a peaceful protester with a flashbang constitutes excessive force in violation of the United States Constitution,” attorney Edward Barnidge wrote. “Every reasonable officer knows that hitting someone with a flashbang will likely cause serious harm, or even death. Thus, it is only reasonable to infer that Officer (John) Doe intended to injure Sophia,” Barnidge said. “If Sophia’s injury had been unintended, Officer Doe’s co-workers would have gasped in horror, not cheered.”
Tribe says Corps’ pipeline findings preordained (AP) — The Native American tribe leading the fight against the Dakota Access oil pipeline said Thursday that an Army Corps of Engineers document shows the agency concluded the pipeline won’t unfairly affect tribes before it consulted them. Standing Rock Sioux officials say the document, which they shared with The Associated Press, bolsters the tribe’s claim that the Corps disregarded a federal judge’s order to seriously review the pipeline’s potential impact on the Standing Rock Sioux and three other Dakotas-based tribes and to not treat the study as a “bureaucratic formality.” “This was a rigged process intended to justify a dangerous and illegal pipeline,” Standing Rock Chairman Mike Faith said in a statement to the AP. The Justice Department declined to comment Thursday. The Corps has said previously that the four tribes suing to shut down the pipeline that began delivering North Dakota oil to a shipping point in Illinois two years ago have been difficult to work with. And the agency did meet with the tribes before it presented its study findings to U.S. District Judge James Boasberg. The tribes fear the pipeline could spill oil into the Missouri River and pollute water they rely on for drinking, fishing and religious purposes. Boasberg said the Corps “largely complied” with environmental law when permitting the pipeline, but he also ordered it to further study the pipeline’s impact on the tribes. Boasberg later said he “expects the Corps not to treat (this) as an exercise in filling out the proper paperwork” after the fact, though he also said he thought there was a “serious possibility” that the agency would be able to substantiate its prior conclusions.
North Dakota energy bill criticized as 'flat-out taking' of private property rights - Attorneys who represent landowners are raising concerns about an energy bill that sailed through the North Dakota Senate, with one calling it a “wolf in sheep’s clothing” that takes away private property rights. Senate Bill 2344 follows a study that found it may be economically viable to temporarily store natural gas underground as an alternative to flaring. Supporters of the bill say it removes uncertainty related to mineral developers’ ability to use pore space, or the cavity or void underground where gas would be injected and temporarily stored. But Steve Easton, an attorney who represented landowners in a case upheld by the North Dakota Supreme Court, said oil and gas companies already have the right to use pore space, and the bill is not needed. The bill would take away the option for compensation for landowners. Ownership of the pore space belongs to the surface owner, not the mineral owner. In addition to gas storage, the bill also has implications for underground storage of carbon dioxide, enhanced oil recovery operations and saltwater disposal wells. “This is the oil and gas industry saying we should be able to take the property rights of a farmer and rancher in North Dakota without even paying for them,” said Easton, who served as U.S. attorney for the District of North Dakota in the early 1990s. The bill also adds a definition of land, specifying that land “means the solid material of earth, regardless of ingredients, but excludes pore space.” Easton said the words “but excludes pore space” seem innocuous, but is a major shift in North Dakota law.
Dakota Access developer sues Greenpeace in state court (AP) — The developer of the Dakota Access oil pipeline is going after the environmental group Greenpeace in state court in North Dakota, after a judge tossed the company’s $1 billion racketeering claim out of federal court. Texas-based Energy Transfer Partners on Thursday sued Greenpeace and several activists it also had targeted in the federal lawsuit that U.S. District Judge Billy Roy Wilson dismissed on Feb. 14. Wilson said he found no evidence of a coordinated criminal enterprise that had worked to undermine ETP and its pipeline project. ETP had made claims under the federal Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act and also under North Dakota laws. Wilson did not address the merits of the state claims. ETP seeks “millions of dollars of damages” in the state lawsuit, which makes similar claims to its federal lawsuit — that Greenpeace and activists conspired to use illegal and violent means such as arson and harassment to disrupt pipeline construction and damage the company, all the while using the highly publicized and prolonged protest to enrich themselves through donations. “Defendants thus advanced their extremist agenda ... through means far outside the bounds of democratic political action, protest, and peaceful, legally protected expression of dissent,” company attorney Lawrence Bender wrote in the complaint. Greenpeace on Friday had not yet been served with the lawsuit and declined to comment on its specifics. However, Greenpeace attorney Deepa Padmanabha said ETP “is clearly still trying to bully Greenpeace through the legal system.”
Protesters blast gas fracking needed for Kalama methanol plant — In a plea to Washington Gov. Jay Inslee to stop projects like the proposed $2 billion Kalama methanol plant, about 100 people gathered at the state Capitol on Thursday to oppose manufacturing facilities that use fracked natural gas. Speakers and organizers specifically called out the Tacoma LNG project and the proposed $2 billion methanol plant that Northwest Innovation Works (NWIW) aims to build at the Port of Kalama. Environmentalist group Columbia Riverkeeper, which organized the rally, said it also delivered 130,000 public comments to the Governor’s Office opposing “fracked” gas projects. Fracking is the controversial process of drilling into the ground and then injecting a high-pressure water mixture into the rock to release the natural gas inside. DesRosier said she was concerned about potential environmental, health and tourism impacts of the plant on the community. “We have new businesses coming to town,” DesRosier told the crowd. “We should be encouraging this movement, not putting in a business that would be a negative when people investigate moving to or visiting our community.” NWIW plans to convert natural gas into methanol, a key ingredient in plastics manufacturing, which would then be shipped to Asia. Chief Commercial Officer and General Counsel Kent Caputo said the rally was a form of communication that NWIW wants to be a part of. Over time, Caputo said, it’s necessary to find alternatives to natural gas. But the methanol plant is a step in the right direction, he said.
Sumas natural gas leaps $23 to trade at $40/MMBtu — Volatility returned to the Sumas, Washington, pricing point on the US-Canadian border as cash prices there jumped Tuesday on continued constricted flows into the location. Flows at Enbridge Westcoast Energy Station 4B South were 1.5 Bcf Tuesday, down from an average 1.7 Bcf for the rest of February. Flows were slated to fall to 1.4 Bcf/d from Wednesday through March 6 for a scheduled tool run and digs. As a result, gas at Sumas settled at $39.43/MMBtu a $22 day-on-day jump and the second-highest daily change so far this year, trading between $25/MMBtu-$50/MMBtu in the day. Further upstream, Westcoast Station 2 settled at negative C 3.5 cents/Gj, down 64 Canadian cents day on day as gas remains stranded in production areas. Cash prices jumped $28 February 9, when cash prices settled at $48/MMBtu as demand surged in Canada and the western US, pushing up prices. Further down the line, the maintenance work is expected to restrict inflows to the Pacific Northwest through Sumas as flows are expected to total to 722 MMcf Tuesday, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics data. On February 1, Sumas flows were 941 MMcf. Looking ahead, demand is likely to rise near term as the National Weather Service forecast calls for below-average temperatures across much of the western US for the next two weeks. Market participants seem to be expecting the spot market to come off from the $40/MMBtu level. In Inside FERC March bidweek action over the past two days, Sumas has averaged $6.65/MMBtu, some $33.35 below the current cash price.
One million litres of oil spilled in Manitoba train derailment - The Transportation Safety Board confirmed that at least one million litres of oil was spilled during a train derailment on Feb. 16. The TSB said the train was travelling east at 79 km/h, when it experienced a “train-initiated emergency brake application,” which prompted 37 out of 110 railcars to go off the tracks near St. Lazare, Man. The fifth and sixth cars stayed upright and weren’t damaged, while the other 35 piled up over a distance of about 300 to 400 feet. Around 16 cars broke open and spilled at least 1 million litres of oil onto a small area on top of deep ice and snow on a pond. The TSB said the spill was “mostly contained in a low-lying area adjacent to the track.” There were no fires, no one was hurt and there were no evacuations. The TSB has finished their on-site work, and said seven of damaged cars are going to be further examined further for a tank car performance evaluation. Some parts of the track and wheels are being sent to an engineering lab in Ottawa for further analysis as well.
Trans Mountain pipeline gets energy regulator support - Canada's national energy regulator has recommended the Trans Mountain pipeline project receive federal approval. The National Energy Board (NEB) says the project is in the public interest despite posing "significant" harm to the local killer whale population. It said the oil project is justified based on its economic benefits. The regulator was asked last year to revisit its recommendations of the controversial project after a federal court quashed an earlier approval. The NEB issued 156 binding modified conditions and 16 non-binding recommendations it says could mitigate the harmful environmental impacts to the region's endangered killer whales and the Salish Sea, a busy inland network of waterways ranging from just north of Vancouver to Puget Sound in Washington. The recommendations include offsetting underwater noise, oil spill response, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions from increased shipping. Critics of the pipeline project on Friday called the NEB report "a rubber stamp" and vowed continued opposition. A new round of consultations with the 117 indigenous groups affected by the project is ongoing and it still needs to received approval from the federal government. The expansion project would triple the existing pipeline's capacity, increasing its capacity from 300,000 barrels per day to 890,000 per day from Alberta, the heart of Canada's oil industry, to Burnaby, British Columbia (BC). It would increase oil tanker traffic on BC's coast from five to up to 34 tankers a month, tankers that would carry the oil along from Pacific coast refineries to world markets.
Feds in 'very strong position' to wrap Indigenous Trans Mountain consultations within 90 days: Sohi - The federal government is well-placed to wrap up consultations with 117 Indigenous communities over the Trans Mountain expansion within 90 days. But Natural Resources Minister Amarjeet Sohi says they will stay at the table if talks take longer. In an interview with the West Block’s Mercedes Stephenson, Sohi said the recommendation of the National Energy Board on Friday that the controversial pipeline expansion go forward — with conditions — marks a “major milestone” and that he is hopeful a separate stream of consultations with impacted Indigenous communities will also conclude within the next three months. “The work that we have done so far and the work we will continue to do in the coming months, I can tell you that I feel that we are in a very strong position to conclude these consultations within the next 90 days,” he said. “But we must get it right.” Last summer, the Federal Court of Appeal slapped an injunction on work for the Trans Mountain expansion. At issue was what the ruling described as an inadequate review by the National Energy Board (NEB) of marine impacts of the expansion on the West Coast, as well as a failure by the Liberal government to adequately consult with Indigenous stakeholders along the pipeline route. The first prompted a new review by the NEB that recommended on Friday that the project proceed, subject to 156 conditions and recommendations including reducing the amount of emissions from tankers passing through the terminal area and decreasing underwater noise to reduce impacts on nearby whales. There is now a 90-day time frame for the federal cabinet to decide how and if the project should go forward.
Oil, natural gas sector project approvals seen tripling in 2019- Rystad - Project approvals for conventional oil and gas projects could almost triple this year in terms of volumes as operators catch up on delayed spending, new LNG projects move forward and Saudi Arabia greenlights major offshore projects, according to researchers at Rystad Energy. Excluding spending on shale and tight oil and gas prospects, collective FIDs were expected to unlock more than 46 billion barrels of oil equivalent in 2019, the Norwegian research group said, up from about 16 billion boe in 2018. Years of tough capital discipline by operators, lower industry costs and firmer prices are fueling an uptick in upstream spending after billions of dollars in projects were shelved in the wake of the 2014 oil price collapse. Most of the new planned projects are giant, capital-intensive LNG plants with multi-billion boe developments, such as Mozambique LNG and the Russian Arctic. LNG expansions in Qatar and Papua New Guinea are also eyeing FIDs, while those for deepwater oil off Brazil, Guyana, and Norway are also on the cards. "The only supply segment likely to shrink this year is the oil sands, whereas deepwater, offshore shelf and other conventional onshore developments are all poised to show substantial growth," Rystad upstream research analyst Readul Islam said in a statement. Saudi Arabia was also expected to approve three major offshore shelf expansion projects that would collectively account for nearly one-fifth of global FID volumes this year, Islam said. He said, however, there were downside risks to the FID forecast, noting that potential delays to just a few mega-projects expected in 2019 could significantly affect total volumes approved. In spite of the expected surge in big FIDs this year, Rystad also cautioned that growth opportunities for the oilfield service sector will remain limited, given that the actual FID count is only seen growing by 12% on 2018. Almost all the expected FIDs this year are for fields of 25 million boe and above.
Frackers Face Harsh Reality as Wall Street Backs Away - Key lifeline for smaller operators fades, as losses pile up and prospects dim for big investment returns. The once-powerful partnership between fracking companies and Wall Street is fraying as the industry struggles to attract investors after nearly a decade of losing money. Frequent infusions of Wall Street capital have sustained the U.S. shale boom. But that largess is running out. New bond and equity deals have dwindled to the lowest level since 2007. Companies raised about $22 billion from equity and debt financing in 2018, less than half the total in 2016 and almost one-third of what they raised in 2012. The loss of that lifeline is forcing shale companies—which have helped to turn the U.S. into an energy superpower—to reduce spending and face the prospect of slower growth. More than a dozen companies have announced spending reductions so far this year, even as crude-oil prices have rallied more than 20% from December lows. More are expected to tighten budgets as they release earnings in coming weeks. Shares of Continental Resources Inc. fell 5.4% Tuesday after the shale company, founded by billionaire Harold Hamm, disclosed that fourth-quarter spending was almost 10% higher than analyst expectations. Wall Street support allowed shale companies to persevere through a plunge in oil prices that began in 2014, eventually helping the U.S. surpass Saudi Arabia and Russia as the world’s largest producer of oil, with 11.9 million barrels a day in November, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Wall Street Loses Faith In Shale --To Wall Street, the shale industry has lost a lot of its allure. A decade’s worth of promises have failed to materialize, and Big Finance is cutting some of its ties with smaller shale drillers who have not delivered. The Wall Street Journal reports that the shale industry only saw $22 billion in new bond and equity deals, down by more than half from 2016 levels, which was a much worse time for the market.The steep decline in new debt and equity issuance is a sign that major investors are no longer rushing to finance unprofitable shale drilling. It’s worth noting that this is a new development. For years Wall Street financed unprofitable drilling, holding out on the promise that rapid production growth would eventually pay off.Shale wells suffer from precipitous decline rates, with as much as three quarters of a well’s total lifetime production coming out in the first year or two. After an initial burst of output, shale wells enter a steep decline.Of course, this has been known since the beginning and Wall Street has long been fully aware. But major investors hoped that shale companies would scale up, achieve efficiencies and lower breakeven prices to the point that they could turn a profit.However, that has not been the case. While there are some drillers that are profitable, taken as a whole the industry has been cash flow negative essentially since its beginning in the mid-2000s. For instance, the IEA estimates that the shale industry posted cumulative negative free cash flow of over $200 billion between 2010 and 2014.The red ink has narrowed since then, but so too has the patience from Wall Street. In 2018, even as oil prices hit their highest levels in years, new debt and equity issuance plunged. That makes it harder for small and even medium-sized companies to finance growth. It’s not all that surprising, then, that a wave of spending cuts have cropped up in the last few months.The WSJ notes that the credit environment also worsened when the market hit its nadir in 2016. Regulators tightened lending requirements, raising the cost of capital for indebted drillers. That, of course, made it even more difficult for these drillers to turn a profit. To top it off, all of these pesky investors are much more demanding than they used to be, calling on companies to stop spending so much and instead return cash to shareholders. That leaves less capital available to inject back into the ground. Taking a step back, explosive shale growth was only possible because in the context of the post-2008 financial crisis and the response by the Federal Reserve to drop interest rates close to zero, something Bethany McLean argues in her book, “Saudi America.” Cheap money financed the debt-fueled shale revolution.
Shale Growth Is Nearing An Inflection Point - Drilling activity has plateaued in much of the U.S., with the rig count zig-zagging well below the peak from last November.The rig count often rises and falls in response to oil prices, but on a several-month lag. It takes some time before oil companies make drilling decisions in response to major price movements. As such, the price meltdown in the fourth quarter of 2018 is still working its way through the system. But the U.S. shale industry has already begun to tap the brakes. Total U.S. oil rigs are stood at 853 for the week ending on February 22, down from a peak of 888 in November. In particular, the Permian – often held up as the most profitable and prolific shale basin – has seen the rig count decline to a nine-month low.Production continues to rise, to be sure, but the growth rate could soon flatten out. “We estimate that the y/y change in US oil drilling will, for the first time since 2016, turn negative by late May, should the current trend of gentle declines continue,” Standard Chartered analysts led by Paul Horsnell wrote in a note. At the same time, oil prices are rising again, and are up roughly 25 percent since the start of the year. If WTI tops $60, many shale drillers could find themselves feeling confident all over again, and could pour money and rigs back into the field.That said, multiple drillers have laid out more conservative and restrained drilling programs, facing pressure from shareholders not to overspend. According to Bloomberg and RS Energy Group, U.S. E&Ps have trimmed their spending plans by 4 percent on average, while at the same time they still expect production to grow by 7 percent.
Have We Already Passed World Peak Oil And World Peak Coal? - Gail Tverberg - Most people expect that our signal of an impending reduction in world oil or coal production will be high prices. Looking at historical data (for example, this post and this post), this is precisely the opposite of the correct price signal. Oil and coal supplies decline because prices fall too low for producers. These producers make voluntary cutbacks because the prices they receive fall below their cost of production. There often are supply gluts at the same time. This strange situation arises because prices must be high enough for the producers at the same time that goods and services made by oil (and other energy products) are inexpensive enough for consumers to afford. There is a two way battle taking place:
- (1) Prices producers require tend to rise over time, because of depletion. The easiest to extract portion of any resource (such as oil, coal, copper, or lithium) tends to be removed first. What is left tends to be deeper, lower quality, or otherwise more difficult to extract cheaply.
- (2) Prices consumers can afford for discretionary goods (such as cell phones and automobiles) tend to fall for a combination of reasons:
- Wages of many workers fall because of competition from lower cost labor in other countries.
- Some jobs are eliminated through the use of computers or robots.
- Young people are increasingly being required to pay for higher education (beyond that which is provided free), leaving many with loans to repay, reducing their discretionary income.
- Changes to US healthcare law (mostly starting January 1, 2014) lead to required health insurance premiums. While some citizens find cost savings in this approach, healthy young people often experience cutbacks in discretionary income as a result.
- Rents and home prices keep rising faster than incomes.
When the discretionary income of the many non-elite workers of the world falls, they buy fewer finished goods and services. Finished goods and services are manufactured using commodities of many kinds, including oil, coal, copper, iron ore, and fresh water. When discretionary demand falls, commodity prices tend to fall. This is the problem we are encountering now. It tends to cause the prices of many commodities to fall below the cost of production. Eventually, producers decide to quit because production is no longer profitable. This is the issue that leads to peak oil, coal or copper.
The $32 Trillion Push To Disrupt The Entire Oil Industry -- Global oil and gas companies are increasingly facing an uphill battle as global warming policies are taking their toll. Most analysts and market watchers are focusing on peak oil demand scenarios, but the reality could be much darker. International oil companies (IOCs) are likely to face a Black Swan scenario, which could end up being a boon for state-owned oil companies (NOCs).Increased shareholder activism, combined with global warming policies of institutional investors and NGOs, are pushing IOCs in a corner, constricting financing options for oil companies. The first signs of a green revolution in the shareholder-investors universe are there, as investors have forced Dutch oil and gas major Shell to officially change its strategy, investing in more renewable energy and energy storage. The Dutch IOC wasn’t forced by to do so because of mismanagement or a lack of reserves but due to a well-orchestrated investor/stakeholder offensive. Several other peers, such as BP, ENI or Total, are expected to experience comparable situations. And it has become clear that not only oil and gas giants are being targeted, after one of the world’s largest mining and commodity trading companies, Glencore, decided to put a limit on its thermal coal investment. The group stated that this was done after it was confronted by a largely unknown shareholder network called Climate Action 100+, which claims to be backed by more than 300 investors, managing assets of around $32 trillion. The group was founded a little over a year ago but has already forced oil majors’ boardrooms to take radical decisions. For Climate Action 100+, which includes investors such as Calpers, Allianz SE, and HSBC Global Asset Management, making profitable investments remains a top priority, but they will no longer look accept a passive stance towards climate change. Without complying with the demands of NGOs and socially engaged investors, access to new capital for new oil and gas upstream projects will be reduced. To force IOCs, such as Shell or BP, to comply with policies that would halve their “net carbon footprint” by 2050 could result in a death-wish for these companies in the long-run.
Marathon Oil Exits UK North Sea In Continued Focus On U.S. Shale - Marathon Oil said on Monday that it would be exiting the UK North Sea as it continues to focus on high-return U.S. shale oil operations.Houston-based Marathon Oil has signed an agreement with independent UK company RockRose Energy to sell its UK businesses Marathon Oil U.K. LLC (MOUK) and Marathon Oil West of Shetland Limited (MOWOS), which hold interests in fields in the Greater Brae Area, in Foinaven Field unit, and in Foinaven East. RockRose Energy will assume all obligations associated with MOUK and MOWOS operations in the UK, including decommissioning liability, Marathon Oil said.The price of the sale—subject to customary adjustments—would be around US$140 million, the U.S. company said.The transaction is expected to close in the second half of 2019, with an effective date of January 1, 2019. As of the end of 2018, Marathon Oil carried 21.4 million barrels of oil equivalent of proved reserves in the UK, and 2018 production averaged around 13,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.“Today’s announcement to divest our U.K. business represents our continued commitment to portfolio management and further concentrates our portfolio on high margin, high return U.S. resource plays,” Marathon Oil chairman, president, and CEO Lee Tillman said in a statement. In March last year, Marathon Oil sold its 16.33 percent non-operated interest in the Waha concessions in Libya to France’s Total for US$450 million, exiting Libya. Earlier this month, Marathon Oil said that it would be spending US$2.4 billion in 2019, with more than 95 percent of that capital budget being allocated to its four key U.S. resource plays—the Eagle Ford, the Bakken, STACK/SCOOP in Oklahoma, and Northern Delaware in the Permian. Marathon Oil’s U.S. resource play production averaged 295,000 net boed in the fourth quarter of 2018, with oil production averaging 174,000 net bopd, up 22 percent from Q4 2017. For this year, the company expects its total oil production to rise by 10 percent, with U.S. oil growth at 12 percent.
Spain's Enagas expects 2.40 million cu m LNG imports in March — Spanish shippers have increased their scheduled March LNG intake by 500,000 cu m, or 26%, compared with initial nominations, according to data published by gas grid operator Enagas. The country is set to receive 18 tankers, or 2.40 million cu m, of LNG, up from nominations a month ago of 14 tankers, or 1.90 million cu m. The additional cargoes will be spread across the ports of Barcelona, Huelva, Sagunto and Mugardos. As a result, LNG send-out in March will be 2.9 TWh, or 20%, higher at 17.2 TWh (1.55 Bcm) compared with nominations at the end of last month. By contrast, pipeline flows were seen dropping 22% to 17.9 TWh, driven by a 24% fall in Algerian imports. The imports schedule at Tarifa has been reduced by 0.8 TWh to 3.0 TWh, while volume through Almeria has been revised down by 1.9 TWh to 5.3 TWh, according to the schedule. Trade flows within Europe were also seen lower in March, as imports from France were scheduled to be down 1.1 TWh to 5.7 TWh and exports to Portugal down 670 GWh. The demand forecast for March was revised slightly higher, by 0.2 TWh to 33.6 TWh, with storage withdrawals also increasing by 1.1 TWh compared with initial nominations. As a result, natural gas stock inventories at the end of March were seen at 18.8 TWh or 57% full, while LNG stock inventories were seen at 10.4 TWh or 49% full, according to Enagas. For April, Spanish shippers have nominated 2.5 million cu m aboard 18 vessels. That is 20%, or 421,000 cu m, higher than the amount delivered in April 2018 and also 6% higher than Enagas's initial forecast requirement.
ExxonMobil makes world's third-biggest natural gas discovery in two years off the coast of Cyprus - Exxon Mobil announced on Thursday that it has made the world's third-biggest natural gas discovery in two years off the coast of Cyprus in the Eastern Mediterranean at the Glaucus-1 well. The region is already know for some of the world's largest such discoveries. It wants to become an alternative energy source for Europe.Based on preliminary interpretation of the well data, the discovery could represent a natural gas resource of approximately 5 trillion to 8 trillion cubic feet (142 billion to 227 billion cubic meters). Further analysis in the coming months will be required to better determine the resource potential."These are encouraging results in a frontier exploration area," said Steve Greenlee, president of Exxon MobilExploration Co. "The potential for this newly discovered resource to serve as an energy source for regional and global markets will be evaluated further."Glaucus-1 was the second of a two-well drilling program in Block 10. The well was safely drilled to 13,780 feet (4,200 meters) depth in 6,769 feet (2,063 meters) of water. The first well, Delphyne-1, did not encounter commercial quantities of hydrocarbons.Block 10 is 635,554 acres (2,572 square kilometers). In 2017, Exxon Mobil and state-owned Qatar Petroleum won the rights to explore for oil and gas in offshore areas south of Cyprus. The east Mediterranean island is located in the Levant basin, where both Israel and Egypt have found some of the largest reserves of natural gas in the past decade.In 2017, Exxon Mobil and state-owned Qatar Petroleum won the rights to explore for oil and gas in offshore areas south of Cyprus. Exxon Mobil owns a 60 percent stake in the block, while Qatar Petroleum holds the rest. At a press conference in Nicosia, Cyprus Energy Minister George Lakkotropis said he is excited about the findings. "It is an amazing development for all of Cyprus. This is the greatest discovery within our Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). In the coming months, the amount of natural gas will be more accurately estimated," he said.
Britain's blocked fracking pipeline - Fracking in Britain is once again on hold after the first exploratory testing for seven years, at Cuadrilla’s single well at Little Plumpton in Lancashire, went badly – and then the government compounded the firm’s misery by turning down planning appeals on a second site with four more wells. Under the terms of Cuadrilla’s licence, it is required to stop work if earth tremors exceed 0.5 ML on the Richter scale – a level imperceptible to humans. Alas, that limit was hit so often that the firm says it was only able to frack 5% of its well. The firm complains the rules are so overcautious that they risk “strangling” the UK’s fracking industry “before birth”: no one will ever be able to do enough tests to work out whether fracking is really economically viable, or what a “safe” seismic limit is given the particular geology of these precise sites.Jim Ratcliffe of Ineos, which holds as yet unexploited fracking rights at other sites, has weighed in too, claiming the “unworkable” rules had no basis in science. But the government, so far, is holding firm. And if the standoff isn’t resolved, fracking in Britain will indeed be a non-starter. Why does it arouse such passions? Because its proponents think it could revolutionise Britain’s energy mix and make us self-sufficient for decades; whereas opponents think it is unsafe, could presage environmental catastrophe, and think it’s nuts to extract more fossil fuels when we urgently need to stop burning carbon. To fracking’s supporters, the example of the US provides a clear economic case for getting on with it: fracking has boosted its oil production, transformed it into the world’s biggest producer of natural gas, and boosted its energy security in the face of geopolitical uncertainty. Britain is a net importer of gas with decades of North Sea experience in the industry it could put to good use onshore. “Fracking in the US has cut energy bills, created jobs and rejuvenated depressed regions,” said a recent Times editorial. “It could do the same for Britain, as well as helping low-income families with fuel costs. Frack on!”
What is causing the Surrey earthquakes, and is it related to fracking - In a surprising turn of events, this morning saw parts of Surrey and West Sussex affected by an earthquake. The 3.7 magnitude and struck at 3.40am near Southwater, around 10 miles away from Gatwick airport, and was felt the most strongly in the Crawley, Reigate and Horley regions. David Welch told MailOnline: ‘My wife and I were watching TV and I heard what I thought was a rumble of thunder. ‘Next thing, she says the sofa is shaking. I’ve never known anything like it in my entire life. My wife is about to have kittens.’ It’s certainly not a regular occurrence to see earthquakes in this part of the world, but it isn’t the first time. The area around Gatwick Airport experienced a series of earthquakes last summer. There were three tremors in eight days in July with some describing experiences similar to ‘two huge explosions’. Why do earthquakes happen in the UK, and is it anything to do with fracking? According to the British Geographical Society, it’s not completely clear why we get earthquakes, although they tend to happen on geographical fault lines in the earth.What they also say is that reasons for quakes can ‘include regional compression caused by motion of the Earth’s tectonic plates, and uplift resulting from the melting of the ice sheets that covered many parts of Britain thousands of years ago.’In this particular instance, anti-fracking activists have surmised that it may be down to recent drilling in the area. Frack Free Surrey said it was ‘time to reopen the inquiry into the link with drilling at Horse Hill’.
China county suspends fracking after earthquakes kill 2 - — A county in western China has suspended drilling for shale gas after a protest by residents who suspected fracking work was the cause of a series of earthquakes that led to two deaths.The first quake hit Sichuan province’s Rongxian county on Sunday morning, followed by two more, including a magnitude 4.9 temblor on Monday afternoon that caused the two fatalities. Twelve people were injured, the county government said in a message on its microblog.Mining activities and handling of dangerous chemicals were also suspended but would be gradually restored, it said. It didn’t directly link the quakes to fracking, but acknowledged residents’ “suspicions.”Those measures were taken after about 1,000 area residents accompanied by 2,000 onlookers rallied outside a local government headquarters to demand that fracking be stopped, the government said in its statement. It said the crowd later dispersed without incident. Street protests over pollution and other environmental hazards are increasingly common in China, often organized over social media. The government statement said quakes were occurring “frequently” but gave no other details. The U.S. Geological Service said the 4.9 magnitude quake struck at a relatively shallow depth of 10 kilometers (6.21 miles). Sichuan is regularly shaken by earthquakes, including a 7.9 magnitude quake in its mountainous western region on May 12, 2008 that killed nearly 90,000 people in China’s worst natural disaster in recent decades.
Deadly quakes in Chinese town trigger anti-fracking protest – Inkstone A Chinese county has suspended fracking operations after a series of deadly quakes triggered protests against the natural gas project.Three earthquakes of magnitude 4.7, 4.3 and 4.9 occurred in Rongxian county in the southwestern province of Sichuan between Sunday and Monday, causing two deaths and 12 injuries.Earthquakes touch a particularly sensitive nerve in Sichuan, where a magnitude-8 earthquakeleft 87,000 dead in 2008. On Sunday and Monday afternoon, more than 1,000 residents gathered at the local government building, demanding the fracking projects be halted, the Rongxian government said on its official website. The protesters left after talking with local officials, the government said. Industrial pollution and accidents regularly lead to public outcry in China, where residents are often kept in the dark about the potential harm that installations such as energy or chemical plants may cause.
Oil leaked from Petrobras P-58 platform off Brazil –company (Reuters) - An estimated 188 cubic meters of oil leaked from Petroleo Brasileiro’s offshore P-58 platform in the early hours of Saturday, the Brazilian state-run oil company said. According to a securities filing, the leak occurred because of the failure of a hose as the oil was being transferred from the platform to an offtake tanker. The oil firm, known as Petrobras, said the transfer process was stopped immediately. The platform is in safe condition, there was no impact on operations and no one was injured, the statement said. The P-58 is located in the Campos basin, about 80 kilometers from the coast of Espírito Santo state. Two vessels are in place for containment of the leak, and initial studies indicate there is no risk of the spilled oil reaching the Brazilian coast, Petrobras said.
Brazil oil regulator to investigate Petrobras oil spill - (Reuters) - Brazil’s oil regulator said on Monday that is has started an investigation into an oil spill at an offshore platform owned by Petroleo Brasileiro SA. On Saturday, about 188 cubic meters of oil leaked from the offshore P-58 platform, which is located in the Campos basin, some 80 kilometers of the coast of Espírito Santo state.
Colombias Cano Limon pipeline bombed for 9th time in 2019 (Reuters) - A bomb attack on Colombia’s Cano Limon pipeline caused an oil spill in eastern Arauca province, state-run oil company Ecopetrol said on Thursday. The spill, which took place in the Saravena municipality near the border with Venezuela, was contained in and around the crater left by the explosion, the company said in a statement. The pipeline was not pumping at the time of the bombing. There have been at least a dozen attacks on Colombian pipelines so far in 2019, nine of them on Cano Limon. There were more than 80 attacks on the 485-mile (780-km) pipeline in 2018, which kept it offline for most of the year. Although Ecopetrol did not name the group responsible, oil infrastructure bombings are regularly carried out by leftist National Liberation Army (ELN) rebels, considered a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union. The ELN opposes multinational companies - saying they seize natural resources without benefiting Colombians.
Shell facing multiple charges over corruption, emissions, and an explosion - Shell will be prosecuted for criminal charges relating to a $1.3 billion settlement for an oil exploration licence in Nigeria, and has also been summoned by prosecutors to face charges over chemical emissions and an explosion. The Dutch Public Prosecutor's Office (DPP) informed Shell it is nearing the conclusion of an investigation into the case and is preparing to prosecute the oil giant, the company said in a statement on its website Friday. Shell and Italian oil firm Eni were accused of bribery in 2017 over a $1.3 billion payment that secured an exploration licence for an oil block, known as OPL 245, in 2011. It was alleged that although the funds were paid to the Nigerian government, the money actually went to Malabu Oil and Gas — a company linked to former oil minister Dan Etete. Eni CEO Claudio Descalzi and four ex-Shell managers are also facing charges of international corruption in Italy, where prosecutors allege they were aware that payments would be pocketed by individuals rather than the Nigerian government. Shell and Eni have both denied any wrongdoing. In an emailed statement, the DPP told CNBC Friday: "On the basis of the ongoing criminal investigation, the Public Prosecution Service concluded that there are prosecutable offenses. We are not yet able to make any announcements about the further course of the case." In November, a report from campaign group Global Witness said that Nigeria would lose $6 billion in oil revenue because of the terms of the allegedly corrupt deal. Shell declined to comment when contacted by CNBC about the DPP's decision to prosecute.
Crude oil spill in river - A stretch of the Umgeni River in Howick has been polluted with crude oil. Crude oil — spilled from a Transnet depot — was spotted by community members and reported to Transnet earlier this month. The oil has flowed into a tributary of the Umgeni at a point about two kilometres from the Umgeni itself. Local environmental activists and concerned citizens fear that the spill has compromised animals and plantlife around the river. The area is also popular for walking dogs and swimming. The Witness on Tuesday visited the site, which is alongside the N3 near Howick, not far from the railway bridge. Clean-up crews were on site to soak up the oil with wood pulp, which was then scooped out of the river. The crews have also inserted material into the water to stop the oil from flowing further downstream. Eve Hughes, who serves on the area ward committee’s environmental portfolio and has worked for the Wildlife and Environment Society South Africa (Wessa), was concerned for nearby animals. “People bring their cattle to graze here and drink from the river. Plants, frogs, insects and aquatic life are all in danger. What worries me is that the public was never notified about this pollution. “People come here to walk their dogs and people play in the water. Why was nothing said?” Another concerned citizen, Pam Haynes, who is also a volunteer for the Duzi Umngeni Conservation Trust, said she was notified about the spillage two weeks ago by cyclists who smelled oil in the area. “Cyclists were going past Tweedie and when they saw the spillage they called me. The question is: how long has this spill been sitting there? Would they be attending to it if we didn’t report it?
Solomon Islands oil spill threatens World Heritage site - A salvage operation is underway more than three weeks after the MV Solomon Trader ran aground on a reef in the Solomon Islands while loading bauxite on the remote island of Rennell during tropical cyclone Oma. People are being warned to stay away from the “toxic” oil spill. Sixty tonnes of oil is estimated to have already spilled with another 600 tonnes still in the tanks of the leaking ship. Australia is assisting the Solomon Islands government with the salvage and clean-up after a plea for help from care-taker prime minister Ric Hou. “Australia is extremely concerned at the scale of this disaster, the impact of this oil spill will have a devastating effect on the surrounding environment, including potentially on a protected UNESCO World Heritage site, as well as the livelihood of the people of Rennell,” Australian High Commissioner Rod Brazier in the capital Honiara told a local briefing of journalists. A Solomon Island National Disaster Council situation report said there is a “lack of in-country capacity to deal with a potential environmental disaster of this magnitude” and that “the primary responsibility to salvage and mitigate any spill rests with the charterer of the ship and the ship owners”. Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) has updated its travel advice for Solomon Islands warning “reconsider your need to travel” to Rennell because “heavy fuel oil is a toxic substance and you should avoid exposure to it”. Island residents fear the complex salvage operation means Rennell will suffer serious long-term damage. “Oil spill makes it impossible to fish or bathe in the sea, oil is still leaking, people are worried, “ Derek Pongi from the Tehakatuu tribe on Rennell told SBS. “Loading of bauxite is still on in the bay. (We’re) calling on the company to halt loading.”Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA) experts deployed to assist have confirmed oil contamination has spread into the surrounding waters and along the shoreline. The 225m long bulk carrier hit a reef on February 4 on Rennell, the largest raised coral atoll in the world with the largest freshwater inland lake in the Pacific, about 250 kilometres south of the capital Honiara.
New Zealand joins Solomons oil spill response - New Zealand joined an international effort Friday to limit damage from oil spilling out of a ship that ran aground near World Heritage-listed waters in the Solomon Islands almost a month ago. The MV Solomon Trader became stranded on a coral reef on February 5 while loading bauxite at remote Rennell Island, about 240 kilometres (150 miles) south of the capital Honiara. Efforts to salvage the 225-metre bulk carrier have so far failed and experts estimate about 75 tonnes of heavy fuel oil has leaked into the sea, with another 600 tonnes still on board. "Australia remains extremely concerned by the ongoing risk of a major oil spill," Canberra's High Commission in Honiara said in a statement. Rennell Island is the largest raised coral atoll in the world and includes a UNESCO World Heritage site which extends kilometres (miles) out to sea. The Australian Maritime Safety Authority is providing regular aerial surveillance of the stricken ship to monitor the unfolding environmental disaster. Pictures taken during the flyovers show a large oil slick running from the ship into the aquamarine waters and thick clumps of petrochemical sludge on the shore. New Zealand dispatched two oil spill containment specialists to the disaster zone on Friday and said they would help implement a response plan. Maritime New Zealand said more specialists may be needed as the situation evolved. The UNESCO World Heritage Centre has expressed concerns about the grounding said says it is working with local officials on mitigation measures. Australia has advised its citizens to reconsider travelling to Rennell Island, warning the heavy fuel oil leaking from the ship is a toxic substance and exposure to it should be avoided.
Limited output disruption from fire at Malaysia's Bintulu LNG plant- sources - Limited output disruption from fire at Malaysia's Bintulu LNG plant: sources — Malaysia's Bintulu LNG plant is expected to experience limited production disruptions or cargo loading delays after a fire broke out at the plant on Friday morning, industry sources told S&P Global Platts. Authorities at the Petronas facility have gotten the situation under control and there is little likelihood of a significant production impact as a result, according to two sources familiar with the matter. Other market sources confirmed that there was minimal damage to plant facilities and substantial cargo loading delays are not to be expected. One northeast Asian end-user told Platts Monday that they had not received any communication from Petronas regarding a delay in their shipments. However, no vessels have left the Bintulu port since February 22, Platts trade flow software cFlow showed. LNG Lerici, a 35,760 dwt vessel, was scheduled to enter the Bintulu port on February 24, but has been anchored partially laden outside the port since February 23, cFlow showed. Another LNG carrier, Seri Alam, a 83,824 dwt vessel, has been anchored partially laden outside Bintulu's LNG complex since February 24, according to cFlow. The Bintulu LNG facility also sparked supply concerns before the fire broke out, with the monthly loadings in February dropping by about 28% to 57,270 mt, Platts Analytics data showed. Petronas was heard to have bought four LNG spot cargoes for end-February to early-March delivery, following slower loadings from the Bintulu LNG complex, market sources said.
Even China may not be able to soak up all 2019's new LNG: Russell (Reuters) - Not even China’s voracious appetite for liquefied natural gas may be enough to absorb the additional supplies hitting the market this year, with the price of the super-chilled fuel potentially a casualty. While China’s LNG imports got off to a rollicking start in 2019, it’s unlikely that will match the 41-percent growth experienced in 2018. Imports were 6.58 million tonnes in January, a record-high and up 27.8 percent from the same month in 2018, according to customs data released on Feb. 23. But the sharp rise in January imports is likely to unwind in coming months as much of the LNG is being used in coal-to-natural gas switching projects that run out of steam as the northern winter ends. Some 3 million Chinese homes were switching from coal heating to natural gas this winter, boosting demand for LNG. However, this demand drops sharply after the winter heating period ends on March 15. China will likely increase its LNG demand by about 8 million tonnes in 2019, not the 15.7 million tonne jump seen in 2018 from 2017. The problem for the LNG market is that it’s likely that more than 30 million tonnes of additional LNG supply will be available in 2019. Poten & Partners head of business intelligence Jason Feer told the LNGgc Asia event that his company expected 33 million tonnes of new supply in 2019, but only 16 million tonnes of extra demand. Wood Mackenzie’s Browne said a total of about 70 million tonnes of new LNG would reach the market this year and next, driven by the full ramp-up of the last of the eight new Australian plants and by the start of new U.S. projects, including Kinder Morgan’s Elba Island and Sempra’s Cameron venture. While there is some potential for India and other emerging buyers in Asia to take more of the fuel, the outlook for traditional big buyers Japan and South Korea is more muted.
US oil is trickling back into China after export boom goes bust - The ongoing U.S.-China trade dispute stopped a surge in American oil exports to the Middle Kingdom, but as Washington and Beijing inch toward a deal, a trickle of U.S. crude appears to be making its way to Chinese shores. The development comes as U.S. and Chinese negotiators recently wrapped up talks that prevented tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars in goods from rising sharply on March 1. The dispute has disrupted once robust trade in energy products such as crude oil and liquefied natural gas between the world's two biggest economies. China emerged as a major buyer of U.S. crude after President Barack Obama and Congress lifted the 40-year ban on exporting crude oil in 2015. During some months last year, China surpassed Canada as the top importer of American oil. Beijing has declined to slap an import tax on U.S. crude in retaliation against the Trump administration's tariffs on Chinese goods. But Chinese buyers nevertheless stopped purchasing American supplies last year as the trade dispute with Washington escalated. After the long pause in trade, China recently offloaded its first shipment of U.S. crude oil this year, although in a roundabout way. About 468,000 barrels of U.S.-origin crude oil was pulled from storage at Yeosu, South Korea, and shipped to China, according to tanker-tracking firm ClipperData. Hongrun Petrochemical, an independent refiner, received the shipment of Eagle Ford crude at Qingdao Port on Sunday, according to S&P Global Platts, which reported the transfer overnight. There are also signs that China may soon receive direct shipments of crude oil from the United States. According to ClipperData, a ship called the Hong Kong Spirit recently loaded almost 2 million barrels at Moda Midstream's Ingleside terminal near Corpus Christi, Texas, and in the U.S. Gulf. The VLCC — or very large crude carrier — is currently declaring for Yantai, China. "This destination may, however, change en route, but for now signals optimism on the trade war front. By the time the VLCC makes it to China in April, trade war concerns may have dissipated," said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at ClipperData.
China plans new state pipeline company in massive energy reshuffle (Reuters) - China will announce a plan this year to form a national oil and gas pipeline group combining the long-distance pipeline assets of the country’s state-owned energy companies, in the sector’s largest reshuffle in two decades, said three persons with knowledge of the plan. The change is designed to open access to China’s pipeline infrastructure to private and foreign energy producers as a way to spur oil and gas exploration. The open pipeline network will allow companies to focus on exploration without any additional costs to move the fuel to market. China’s economic planner, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), approved the plan for the group last month, including details of assets to be incorporated, and final approval from China’s State Council is still pending, said one of the sources. The initiative is considered the biggest energy market reshuffle since 1998 when Beijing restructured the entire sector and established China Petroleum and Chemical Corp (Sinopec) and PetroChina. The new entity will effectively become a fourth state-controlled energy company next to Sinopec, China National Petroleum Corp, the parent company of PetroChina, and China National Offshore Oil Corp. It is unclear when Beijing will officially announce the plan or when the new firm will be launched, but companies have been making preparations for the move, said a second source, an executive at a state-owned oil company. That includes PetroChina relocating its pipeline segment’s management team to a separate office tower in Beijing, the source said. The sources declined to be named due to the sensitive nature of the matter. The NDRC did not respond to Reuters request for comment. “It’s the largest-ever step in (the oil and gas) sector reform. At the core of it, it’s about removing a key bottleneck in the market and allowing producers and consumers equal access to infrastructures,” said Dong Xiucheng, director of energy policy research at University of International Business and Economics in Beijing.
Oil spill spreads panic in Paradip - Leakage of oil from a pipeline of IOCL refinery here has led to panic among fishermen. IOCL has pressed a team into service to ascertain the cause of oil spill. Sources said leakage of oil was detected by some fishermen on the pipeline on Atharbanki- Neherubangla road. The oil had spilled into Kaudia river at Atharbanki. Locals alleged that it is the handiwork of some miscreants involved in stealing oil from the IOCL pipeline. Lack of security at isolated locations and absence of in-built automatic alert system in the pipeline is leading to theft of petroleum products in Paradip area. Assistant Engineer of Odisha State Pollution Control Board (OSPCB) Twinkle Mohanty said a joint team of OSPCB and IOCL had visited the spot and started inquiry to ascertain the cause of the oil spill. The official said the source of leakage has been located and no harm to marine species has yet been reported. In July last year, oil leakage was reported from the pipeline. It had resulted in deaths of several marine species. In 2015, oil pilferage from the pipeline of refinery of IOCL had occurred while some miscreants were trying to steal petroleum products.
Saudi Arabia To Invest $100 Billion In India’s Energy Sector - Saudi Arabia will invest US$100 billion in India’s infrastructure and energy industry as it seeks to strengthen its position in the country that is registering the fastest growth in oil demand. "We want Saudi Aramco to be a household name in India," Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said as quoted by S&P Global Platts, adding that India was the number-one priority for the Kingdom’s oil giant. Saudi Arabia has already committed hefty investments in India, the biggest among them the US$44-billion refinery and petrochemical complex in Ratnagiri, which will be the largest in the country, with a capacity of 60 million tons annually. Aramco is participating in the project together with Emirati Adnoc, sharing a 50-percent stake in the project. The other 50 percent are divided between three Indian refiners: Indian Oil Corp., Hindustan Petroleum Corp., and Bharat Petroleum Corp. The project is behind schedule, however, because the partners behind it had to pick a new location after strong opposition from farmers in the original one. Because of the delay, construction work will begin in 2021 and the facility should be operational by 2025, the chief executive of the company set up for the project told Bloomberg this week. India is a focal point for oil producers. Last year, its demand for the commodity went up by 245,000 bpd, accounting for 14 percent of global oil demand growth. This year, according to Wood Mackenzie, growth will continue strong. Over the longer term, according to OPEC estimates, oil demand in India will rise by 5.8 million bpd until 2040.
Saudi Aramco is finding so much natural gas it could export at least 3 Bcf/d by 2030: CEO — Saudi Arabia could be exporting 3 Bcf/d of natural gas before 2030, making it one of the world's major suppliers, Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said Tuesday, as the company continues to find more reserves and use less crude oil for power generation. "We have a lot of gas coming," Nasser told reporters on the sidelines of the International Petroleum Week conference in London. "The numbers keep changing because we keep finding more gas. For the time being, we are talking about 3 Bcf/d over, I would say, the next decades." He later clarified that would occur "before 2030, for sure", and that Aramco was exploring both pipeline and liquefied gas exports. The Saudi state-owned oil giant is expanding its gas sector under an ambitious $150 billion investment plan over the next 10 years that will see production rise to 23 Bcf/d from its current 14 Bcf/d. Eventually, Aramco aims to use gas for 70% of its power generation. Any surplus gas would be exported, Nasser said. "As we find more gas, we are satisfying our needs, and then we export," he said. Saudi Aramco last month said its natural gas reserves stood at 319.5 Tcf as of the end of 2017, according to an independent audit, up from a previously reported 302.3 Tcf. BP's most recent annual statistical review had Saudi gas reserves somewhat lower, at 283.8 Tcf as of the end of 2017, ranking it sixth in the world, behind Russia, Iran, Qatar, Turkmenistan and the US.
Japan's refiners seek clarity over Iran oil waiver extension in Mar— Japanese refiners are seeking clarity on whether there will an extension to the 180-day sanctions waiver from Washington in March, as they hope to continue buying Iranian oil without any disruption, Petroleum Association of Japan's president Takashi Tsukioka said Friday. Speaking at a press conference in Tokyo, Tsukioka said that the Japanese refiners are planning to load Iranian crude by March, as well as considering their options beyond May. In the absence of clarity over the extension of the US sanctions waiver in March, Tsukioka said the refiners' lifting of Iranian oil would stop in April. "It would be best to have clarity over the sanctions waivers by the end of March," Tsukioka said. "If decided in March, we will be able to continue loading [Iranian oil]." Tsukioka also added that Japanese refiners would continue to buy spot Iranian oil whether or not their term contracts are renewed if the sanctions waiver is granted. Showa Shell, Fuji Oil and Cosmo Oil were the first Japanese refiners to resume Iranian crude loadings in January -- the first in four months -- totaling around 4.9 million barrels. This was followed by JXTG Nippon Oil & Energy resuming loadings in early February. Idemitsu Kosan has also said it intends to resume its purchases of Iranian crude oil during the current US sanctions waiver. Asked about the outlook of talks with a top US State Department delegation in Tokyo, Tsukioka confirmed the visit as well as expressing his hope for progress toward securing the extension to the Iranian oil sanctions waiver. "It would be beneficial for Japan to secure the sanctions waiver by all means," Tsukioka said. "We are hopeful of the government."
US will stick to its zero tolerance policy on Iranian oil: US' Fannon — The US continues to pursue a zero-tolerance policy for its Iran oil sanctions and is urging importers to eliminate all purchases from the Middle East country, Francis Fannon, assistant secretary at the US State Department's Bureau of Energy Resources, said Monday during a visit to Japan. "The US policy is to drive Iranian exports to zero," Fannon said during a media briefing in Tokyo. "That policy has not changed. We are unwavering in our policy." Fannon was asked whether Washington would consider extending Iran sanctions waivers when they expire in May, given falling supplies from Saudi Arabia as a result of the production cut agreement by OPEC and allies, and the ongoing crisis in sanctions-hit Venezuela. He said it was premature to say whether the State Department would grant new waivers in May to the eight countries that were allowed to continue importing Iranian oil in return for promising to significantly cut their dependence on the supplies. "We encourage all countries to diversify sources away from Iran." He said that message was for all of Iran's customers: "It's not unique to any one country." "We recognize that countries need supplies, and are continued to be encouraged that there are alternative sources," Fannon said, adding that the US Energy Information Administration is projecting a surplus of about 440,000 b/d in 2019 and 630,000 b/d in 2020. All transactions under the US State Department's current "significant reduction exemptions" must be completed by May 4. Fresh waivers would start May 5 for countries that the US determines to have been able to significantly reduce Iranian imports in the previous six months.
Japan's Cosmo to load Iranian Heavy crude early Mar as refiners step up lifting - Japanese refiner Cosmo Oil will load around 900,000 barrels of Iranian Heavy crude oil in early March as local refiners are rushing to lift as much barrels from Iran during the current 180-day US sanctions waivers, sources with direct knowledge of the matter told S&P Global Platts Tuesday. Cosmo Oil is now scheduled to load around 900,000 barrels of Iranian Heavy crude on a VLCC around March 4-5 and discharge the cargo in Japan around March 27-28 after calling at Ras Tanura in Saudi Arabia, and Zirku Island in Abu Dhabi, the sources said. Cosmo Oil's scheduled loading of Iranian Heavy crude, however, will likely be the last loading of Iranian barrels before the current US sanctions waivers expire without clarity for extension beyond May, the sources added. The US continues to pursue a zero-tolerance policy for its Iran oil sanctions and is urging importers to eliminate all purchases from the Middle East country, Francis Fannon, assistant secretary at the US State Department's Bureau of Energy Resources, said Monday during a visit to Japan. "The US policy is to drive Iranian exports to zero," Fannon said during a media briefing in Tokyo. "That policy has not changed. We are unwavering in our policy." Fannon was asked whether Washington would consider extending Iran sanctions waivers when they expire in May, given falling supplies from Saudi Arabia as a result of the production cut agreement by OPEC and allies, and the ongoing crisis in sanctions-hit Venezuela. He said it was premature to say whether the State Department would grant new waivers in May to the eight countries that were allowed to continue importing Iranian oil in return for promising to significantly cut their dependence on the supplies. Fannon was in Japan after visiting South Korea early last week. Both oil-importing countries are asking Washington to grant them new 180-day waivers to import Iranian crude when the current exemptions expire May 4. Japanese refiners, meanwhile, are planning to load Iranian crude by March and expect to halt the liftings in April if there is no news of a US waiver extension.
India and China Defy Trump on the Iranian Oil Boycott - Energy security is a top priority for a nation unable to meet the demand for hydrocarbons domestically. That is the key to understanding why India and China have refused to fall in line with US President Donald Trump’s ban on dealings with Iran’s oil, banking and transport sectors.Last year, Iran was the third largest supplier of petroleum to India, after Iraq and Saudi Arabia. And it was the fourth third most important crude oil source for China after Russia, Saudi Arabia and Angola.As in 2012 during the presidency of Barack Obama in the US, so now, India and China declared that they are bound only by the sanctions on a country imposed by the United Nations Security Council.In 2012, to skirt having to deal with transactions in US dollars in which petroleum is traded, China used two small banks with no dealings in America to buy crude oil from Iran. Following Trump’s sanctions on Iranian oil in November 2018, China reverted to the earlier arrangement. Moreover, last year, the Shanghai exchange made arrangements to trade in oil in the Chinese currency, yuan.In August, the state-owned China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) – ranked number 4 on the 2017 Fortune 500 list – took over French oil company Total’s 50.1% stake in the $4.8bn South Pars gas field project in Iran, raising its share to 80.1%, when Total decided to quit. The Chinese oil giant entered Iran in 2004, when it acquired the MIS oilfield in the central highlands, in which it now holds a 75% stake. In 2009, it signed contracts with the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) to develop the North Azadegan oilfield near the Iraqi border. It began production in April 2016 of about 80,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil along with natural gas. It continues to take petroleum from both oilfields. With a very modest domestic petroleum production of 750,000 bpd in 2018, India imports 4.9 million bpd; the third highest figure in the world, after China and the US. To skirt the sanctions imposed on Iran by President Obama under the Iran Freedom and Counter-Proliferation Act of 2012, Tehran agreed to accept payments for its petroleum from India in rupees.
Pence Urges Global Freeze On Venezuelan Oil; Vows Return Of "Every Last Dollar" To Opposition - As expected the Lima Group summit hosted in Bogota, Colombia on Monday became a collective Venezuelan regime change strategy session following the weekend showdown over US humanitarian aid entering the country, which led to riots on bridges at border points Saturday. Previously promising to announce at the meeting of the over 12 American states — most of which have recognized US-backed Juan Guaido as "legitimate" leader of Venezuela —"concrete steps" and "clear actions", Vice President Mike Pence underscored that President Trump stands behind Guaido "100 percent" after a face-to-face session with the opposition leader, the first since unrest began. Predictably Pence unveiled new sanctions targeting Caracas while calling on allies to freeze all assets of its state-owned oil company PDVSA, and further called for the United Nations Security Council to act. "We hope for a peaceful transition to democracy. But President Trump has made it clear: all options are on the table," said Pence at the summit. He indicated the pressure campaign would continue ramping up, especially while calling for all Lima Group nations to immediately freeze PDVSA’s assets.“In the days ahead... the United States will announce even stronger sanctions on the regime’s corrupt financial networks,” Pence said, according to the AFP.“We will work with all of you to find every last dollar that they stole and work to return it to Venezuela.” The US is seeking to put all Venezuelan assets under the control of Guaido's government-in-waiting.
US Deploys Special Forces To Puerto Rico, Colombia Ahead Of Venezuela Invasion, Russia Claims - Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev told Argumenty i Fakty that the US is deploying military assets to Puerto Rico and Colombia for a future military intervention in Venezuela to remove President Nicolás Maduro from power."Showing sarcasm and arrogance towards the Venezuelan people, the United States is preparing a military invasion of an independent state," Patrushev told the Russian newspaper.According to his statements, Washington is transferring "American special operations forces to Puerto Rico, the landing of US forces in Colombia," which "clearly indicates that the Pentagon is reinforcing the grouping of troops in the region."As he explained, Venezuela rejected humanitarian aid imposed on it by the US because it recognizes that Washington uses aid as a precursor to military intervention."And the Venezuelan people understand this well. Hence, such a reaction, the refusal to accept cargo from the aggressor country and the support of their president," Patrushev added.The Russian security official said that Washington recommended holding several talks on Venezuela, and Moscow accepted. However, Trump administration officials started using far-fetched pretexts to circumvent these discussions, Patrushev added. Last week, president Putin said that Russia is militarily ready for a "Cuban Missile-style crisis", commenting on nuclear first strike capability amidst growing tensions with the US. The remarks were given to Russian media following a prior speech wherein he warned Moscow will match any attempt by the US to station intermediate-range nuclear missiles in Europe in the wake of the now collapsing INF treaty. Putin specifically threatened deployment of hypersonic missiles on ships and submarines which could enter US territorial waters without detection if American intermediate-range missiles move into Europe. While it remains unclear just how far Russia's commitment to protecting the Maduro regime would stretch, Venezuelan Foreign Minister Jorge Arreaza said Monday that his government would not tolerate foreign interference. "We are not going to allow intervention, we Venezuelans will solve our problems," he said.
Hedge funds bet cautiously on even higher oil prices: Kemp - (Reuters) - Hedge funds added more bullish positions in crude and fuels in the most recent week in the expectation that positive trade talks between the United States and China would keep the global economy expanding. Saudi Arabia’s substantial output cuts and U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela also are restricting crude supplies and helping eliminate a previously expected surplus in the market in 2019. Hedge funds and other money managers were net buyers of Brent crude futures and options equivalent to 9 million barrels in the week to Feb. 19, data from ICE Futures Europe showed. Portfolio managers have been net buyers of Brent in 10 of the last 11 weeks, increasing their overall bullish position by a total of 139 million barrels since Dec. 4 (https://tmsnrt.rs/2BSNwnx ). But funds have become only moderately bullish on crude, with long positions outnumbering short ones by a ratio of less than 6:1 compared with as much as 12:1 or even 20:1 at times between 2016 and 2018. Fund managers were also net buyers of another 10 million barrels of European gasoil futures and options in the week to Feb. 19, for the seventh week running, buying a total of 49 million barrels since the end of 2018. As with crude, however, investors have become moderately bullish on the outlook for middle distillates such as gasoil, diesel and jet fuel. Funds hold seven bullish long positions for every bearish short one, up from a ratio of 1:1 at the turn of the year but still far below the 31:1 ratio at the start of October. The relatively cautious positioning in both crude and fuels likely reflects substantial uncertainty about the economic outlook for the rest of the year and into 2020.
Oil prices firm on hopes for US, China trade deal: Oil prices rose on Monday as Washington and China appeared to edge closer to a trade deal, dampening fears over the outlook for global economic growth. International Brent crude oil futures were at US$67.26 a barrel at 0005 GMT, up 14 cents, or 0.2 per cent, from their last close. They ended Friday little changed after touching their highest since Nov 16 at US$67.73 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at US$57.38 per barrel, up 11 cents, or 0.2 per cent, from their last settlement. WTI futures climbed 0.5 per cent on Friday, having marked their highest since Nov 16 at US$57.81 a barrel. "Crude prices continue to be supported on optimism a trade deal will be reached in the coming days by the world's two largest economies, said Edward Moya, senior market analyst, Oanda. President Donald Trump said on Sunday he would delay an increase in US tariffs on Chinese goods scheduled for later this week thanks to progress in trade talks and said if progress continued, he and Chinese President Xi Jinping would seal a deal. Signs of reduced global oil supply also supported crude prices. US energy firms this week cut the number of oil rigs operating for the first time in three weeks week after US crude production hit an all-time high, boosting exports to a record-peak and stockpiles to their highest in over a year. Meanwhile, Mexico's Pemex produced 1.62 million barrels of crude per day in January, less than any month in almost three decades, the state-owned oil company said on Friday, underscoring the challenges facing a government that vows to pump far more in a few years.
Oil up toward 2019 highs on supply, trade talks optimism - Oil prices edged up on Monday toward a 2019 high achieved last week as sanctions and political uncertainty tightened supply in several producer countries and U.S.-China talks appeared headed toward success. But record U.S. exports and continued anxiety over poor economic data worldwide this year may curb gains. International Brent crude oil futures were at $67.28 a barrel at 0950 GMT, up 16 cents, or 0.24 percent, from their last close. On Friday, they briefly touched their highest levels since Nov. 16 at $67.73 a barrel.U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $57.39 per barrel, up 13 cents, or 0.23 percent, from their last settlement. WTI futures marked their highest since Nov. 16 at $57.81 a barrel. "Risk appetite across global markets should improve as President Trump extends the deadline of trade talks with China,""Supply risk is ever present with Venezuelan tensions brewing a notch higher ... the National Oil Corporation in Libya refusing to start production at the El Sharara field," he added, while also citing uncertainty over elections in top African oil exporter Nigeria. U.S. sanctions on Iranian and Venezuelan crude plus involuntary curbs in Nigeria and Libya are lending support to efforts to balance the market and support prices, efforts led by member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC producers such as Russia.Further brightening the global economic picture, U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday signalled a potentially bruising trade war with China could be averted.Trump tweeted he would postpone a March 1 deadline for higher tariffs on Chinese goods and looked forward to a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping when a Sino-American deal was sealed.Goldman Sachs analysts said on Monday that "the near-term outlook for oil is modestly bullish over the next two to three months", but added that the outlook for later in 2019 was weaker due to a surge in U.S. exports and an "an increasingly uncertain economic, policy and geopolitical backdrop".
Trump warns Saudi Arabia on oil prices as focus turns to re-election: Kemp - (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump has warned OPEC not to tighten the oil market too much and risk another spike in prices that could harm the global economy – and his re-election campaign in 2020. “Oil prices getting too high,” the president warned in a message posted on Twitter on Monday. “OPEC please relax and take it easy. World cannot take a price hike – fragile!” The president has kept up a regular commentary on oil prices over the last year and has pressed Saudi Arabia, de facto leader of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, to push them lower. Earlier interventions were triggered when prices climbed into the mid or high $70s per barrel but more recently the president has tweeted when prices were well below $70 (https://tmsnrt.rs/2EuhjF5). The president’s willingness to tolerate higher prices appears to be diminishing and his tweet-intervention zone has fallen over time (“Oil prices are re-entering the tweet zone”, Reuters, Sept. 13). But the most interesting part of Trump’s tweet was the third sentence, with its implicit recognition that global economic growth has slowed since the middle of 2018. The president’s characterisation of the economy as “fragile” shows that the administration is aware of the suddenness and severity of the slowdown since September. Like any first-term president, Trump’s top priority is being re-elected next year. No president wants to be confined to a single term and branded a failure.
Oil falls after Trump says prices are too high and tells OPEC the 'world cannot take a price hike' - Oil prices tumbled more than 3 percent on Monday after President Donald Trump publicly urged OPEC to lower the cost of crude, putting pressure on the Saudi-led group to soften its price-boosting output cuts. "Oil prices getting too high. OPEC, please relax and take it easy. World cannot take a price hike - fragile!" the president said in an early morning tweet. The message comes two months into a fresh round of production cuts from OPEC and other nations. The producers meet in mid-April to review the deal, which is scheduled to last through the first six months of 2019. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures ended Monday's session down $1.78, or 3.1 percent, at $55.48 a barrel. On Friday, WTI hit a more than three-month intraday high at $57.81 a barrel. International benchmark Brent crude futures fell $2.36, or 3.5 percent, at $64.76 a barrel. Brent hit $67.73 a barrel on Friday, its highest intraday level since mid-November.
Oil Plummets After Trump Warns OPEC Prices Are Getting Too High - After months of radio silence, Trump the oil analyst has returned to complain about prices being too damn high. For the first time since OPEC+ agreed to cut production at its December meeting, Trump has chimed in on Twitter to tell the cartel to "relax and take it easy" because oil prices are "getting too high." Oil prices getting too high. OPEC, please relax and take it easy. World cannot take a price hike - fragile!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 25, 2019OPEC and members of an ancillary group led by Russia have been cutting production since the start of the year after striking an agreement during OPEC's December meeting in Vienna to lower output by an aggregate by 1.2 million b/d during the first six months of 2019.Of those cuts, 800,000 bpd will come from OPEC members, while Russia and its allied producers will cut 400,000 bpd.More recently, when Trump has tweeted about oil, he has been cheering the advances in US shale production that led the US to become a net exporter for the first time.But with retail sales and home sales slumping and the Fed warning that Q4 GDP - due out Friday - might disappoint, Trump probably reckons that now would be a good time for a de facto "tax cut" - the kind that wouldn't blow out the deficit even further. Oil prices tumbled after the tweet, notching one of their biggest daily retreats since the beginning of 2019, virtually ensuring that this won't be the last we hear from Trump on this subject.
Goldman Sachs believes oil prices are about to go on a wild ride in 2019 -- Brent crude oil could hit $75 a barrel in the coming months, but the return of the "New Oil Order" will soon push down prices, Goldman Sachs said on Monday.The warning comes less than two weeks after Goldman forecast Brent would peak around $67.50 a barrel in the second quarter. Since then, the international benchmark for oil prices has surged by nearly $5 a barrel, or 7.5 percent, topping out at $67.73 on Friday. Goldman based its earlier forecast on a fundamental reading of supply and demand in the oil market. But the investment bank now says crude prices have gained technical support after rising to three-month highs, and a number of bullish factors will likely boost the commodity in March and April."While prices could easily trade in a $70-$75/bbl trading range, we believe such an environment would likely prove fleeting," according to Goldman's global head of commodities research Jeffrey Currie and senior commodity strategist Damien Courvalin."As a result, we would view near-term strength as a window of opportunity for producers to sell forward prices to create earnings security before the return of the New Oil Order later this year," the analysts wrote in a research note.That new order is marked by surging U.S. oil production from the nation's shale fields and rising low-cost output from OPEC and its allies, including Russia. That will ultimately keep Brent and U.S. crude on track for Goldman's year-end targets of $60 and $55, respectively, the analysts say.But in the near-term, the so-called OPEC+ alliance is taking a "shock and awe" approach to cutting production, Goldman says. Saudi Arabia is leading this rapid pullback with plans to pump 500,000 barrels per day below its quota in March. Meanwhile Russia has signaled it will deepen cuts over the next two months.
12 Empty Supertankers Tell Us Everything We Need To Know About The Oil Market - As the US battles with its OPEC+ rivals over the direction of global oil prices (Trump wants to keep oil prices subdued, while Saudi Arabia and Russia, reeling from years of prices too low to balance their budgets, are desperately hoping to push them higher with another round of production cuts), 12 supertankers sailing across the Atlantic can tell us a lot about the changing supply dynamics in the global oil market. The tankers have been traveling a route spanning thousands of miles with no cargo other than some seawater needed for ballast. Of course, in normal times, the ships would be filled with heavy, high sulfur Middle East oil for delivery to refineries in places like Houston or New Orleans. But these aren't "normal" times. Following the OPE+ agreement to cut 1.5 mb/d, the ships are sailing cargo-less - forgoing profits on half of their journey - just so they can pick up the light crude that US shale producers - which briefly turned the US into a net-exporter of oil for the first time late last year - have been relentlessly pumping, according to Bloomberg.That's quite a sacrifice for the owners of the ships, which are traveling 21,000 with nothing to show for it.The 12 vessels are making voyages of as much as 21,000 miles direct from Asia, all the way around South Africa, holding nothing but seawater for stability because Middle East producers are restricting supplies. Still, America’s booming volumes of light crude must still be exported, and there aren’t enough supertankers in the Atlantic Ocean for the job. So they’re coming empty.“What’s driving this is a U.S. oil market that’s looking relatively bearish with domestic production estimates trending higher, and persistent crude oil builds we have seen for the last few weeks,” said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING Bank NV in Amsterdam. “At the same time, OPEC cuts are supporting international grades like Brent, creating an export incentive.” As OPEC+ supply declines, shippers are turning to the US for profit growth, analysts said.Shippers are counting on the U.S. exports to help the tanker market withstand supply restrictions by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia. Industry analysts, who actually raised their estimates for what they think the ships will earn this year after the OPEC+ pact was announced in December, are citing rising American shipments as a contributing factor.
Oil prices steady after steep drop on Trump's OPEC tweet - Oil traded roughly flat on Tuesday as Saudi Arabia and the rest of OPEC were expected to stick to their policy of cutting production, despite renewed pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump. Prices slid on Monday, when many traders were out of the office attending International Petroleum Week, a series of industry events in London, after Trump called on OPEC to ease its efforts to boost the oil market. Prices were "getting too high," the president said. "Yesterday was a typical price action you see during IP Week when you have a headline," said Olivier Jakob, oil analyst at Petromatrix. "But I don't think it will change anything in current OPEC supply policy."Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose 28 cents to $65.04 around 10:10 a.m. ET (1510 GMT), after losing 3.5 percent on Monday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1 cent to $55.47, stabilizing after a roughly 3-percent fall.Expectations that U.S. crude inventories had risen for a sixth straight week limited the rally.U.S. crude stocks were seen 3.6 million barrels higher in weekly inventory reports, underlining that supply is adequate in the world's top consumer. The first such report is due at 4:30 p.m. ET (2130 GMT) from the American Petroleum Institute, following by more comprehensive government figures on Wednesday morning.Oil is up about 20 percent since the start of the year, when OPEC and non-member producers, such as Russia, began cutting production in an effort to reduce a global glut. Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members are likely to be cautious about relaxing their supply-cut plan, Jakob said, after a boost in output in the second half of last year ahead of U.S. sanctions on Iran led to a steep slide in prices.
Oil Inches Higher Ahead Of Inventory Data - Oil prices fell on Monday but opened up flat on Tuesday, looking to stabilize. President Trump is trying to thread a needle by keeping the U.S. economy from slowing down, while also trying to head off further increases in oil prices.. President Trump’s tweets calling on OPEC to lower oil prices may have triggered a price decline on Monday. “His comment that the world is too fragile to take the rising prices is likely to have contributed to the price slump,” Commerzbank wrote in a note. “OPEC is pretty much caught between a rock and a hard place: either it cuts production as agreed, or even more sharply, thereby risking provoking the anger of the US president. Or it allows the oil price to fall back below $60 per barrel given that non-OPEC production, especially in the US, is on the rise.” President Trump cited significant progress in his decision to delay the implementation of tariffs on Chinese goods. A comprehensive trade deal remains a very difficult task, but the Trump administration is keen to dial back on the trade war. The development removes, for the time being, one of the greatest bearish factors facing the oil market.. Nigeria has ordered foreign oil companies working in the country to pay nearly $20 billion in back taxes. Royal Dutch Shell, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Eni, Total and Equinor were each asked to pay between $2.5 and $5 billion, according to Reuters. Several of the companies said they were reviewing the matter. Venezuela has reportedly been forced to pay heavy premiums for fuel imports from Russia and Europe, according to Reuters. The U.S. cut off shipments of diluents to the country, and PDVSA has had to look elsewhere, but has been forced to pay higher prices as many sellers around the world decline to do business with the company Unable to find enough buyers for its crude oil, Venezuela is reportedly running out of storage space. Bloomberg estimates that more than 8 million barrels of oil are stashed on roughly 16 ships sitting idle along the country’s coast. Some of the joint ventures lowered production at their upgraders this week. For instance, the PDVSA-Rosneft upgrader is not processing heavy crude because of a lack of storage space. So far, data is lacking, but PDVSA will likely suffer from greater upstream production declines as it may have to shut in output.
Oil steadies as OPEC is seen ignoring pressure from Trump on output cuts - Oil futures steadied on Tuesday on signs that OPEC plans to maintain production cuts despite pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump, whose comment criticizing rising crude prices sent the market into a tailspin a day earlier. Prices slid on Monday, when many traders were out of the office attending International Petroleum Week, a series of industry events in London, after Trump called on OPEC to ease its efforts to boost the oil market. Prices were "getting too high," the president said. An OPEC source told Reuters on Tuesday OPEC would stick to its agreement to tighten crude supplies regardless of Trump's recent tweet. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude ended Tuesday's session roughly flat, settling 2 cents higher at $55.50. WTI plunged more than 3 percent in the previous session. Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose 45 cents, or just over a half percent, to $65.21 on Tuesday. Brent lost 3.5 percent on Monday. "The market has started to realize that Donald Trump can't tweet more oil out of the ground, or out of OPEC," said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. "OPEC really wants to get the supplies ... back in line," Flynn said. Oil is up about 20 percent since the start of the year, when OPEC and non-member producers, such as Russia, began cutting production in an effort to reduce a global glut. The OPEC source said the cartel, along with non-member producers, would continue its supply-cut agreement to balance the market until they see inventories fall to their five-year average. "There is no doubt we will continue with our reduction as planned," the OPEC source said. The so-called OPEC+ alliance agreed in December to cut supply by 1.2 million barrels per day from Jan. 1 for six months.
OPEC, allies to maintain oil output cuts despite Trump: source (Reuters) - OPEC and its allies will stick with their agreement to cut oil supply, pushing for more adherence despite a demand by U.S. President Donald Trump that the producer group ease its efforts to boost crude prices, a Gulf OPEC source said on Tuesday. Based on current market data, the so-called OPEC+ group is “likely to continue with the production cuts until the end of the year”, the source told Reuters. The OPEC+ alliance will meet in April to decide its output policy. Trump, in the latest in a series of tweets about oil prices since April 2018, wrote on Monday: “Oil prices getting too high. OPEC, please relax and take it easy. World cannot take a price hike - fragile!” Following the tweet, oil prices registered their largest daily percentage drop this year, with Brent crude losing 3.5 percent on Monday. Brent edged up on Tuesday. [O/R] The source said OPEC+ would continue the supply-cut agreement to balance the market until “they see inventories going down from their current level” to their five-year average. “There is no doubt we will continue with our reduction as planned and we will push to reach the highest adherence to the cuts as we have decided before,” the OPEC source said. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other non-OPEC producers agreed in December to reduce supply by 1.2 million barrels per day from Jan. 1 for six months. A committee set up to monitor participating countries’ adherence to the deal found compliance at 83 percent in January, according to OPEC sources. U.S. sanctions on the oil sector of OPEC member Venezuela, a top supplier of sour crude to the United States, have helped support oil prices recently and raised questions whether top oil exporter Saudi Arabia will raise output to fill the gap. But the Gulf OPEC source said there was no clear data on Venezuela’s crude output decline due to sanctions. There was also no risk that current crude prices would encourage more U.S. shale oil production, the source said.
WTI Spiked Above $56 After Big Surprise Crude Draw Modest gains in oil prices today after yesterday's Trump-tweet-driven tumble.“OPEC didn’t listen to Trump back in December because they knew they needed to cut,” said Michael Loewen, a commodities strategist at Scotiabank in Toronto. “Trump’s tweets and his influence in the financial markets is quite apparent, but investors are starting to question whether or not they are relevant anymore. API:
- Crude -4.2mm (3mm exp)
- Cushing +2mm
- Gasoline -3.8mm
- Distillates +400k
After five straight weeks of crude builds, API reports a big surprise crude draw... WTI hovered around $56.60 ahead of the print and spiked above $56 on the API data
Surprise crude oil draw sends oil prices higher - The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a surprise draw in crude oil inventory of 4.2 million barrels for the week ending February 22, coming in under analyst expectations that predicted that crude oil inventories would build by 2.842 million barrels. Last week, the API reported a build in crude oil of 1.26 million barrels. A day later, the EIA reported a larger one of 3.7 million barrels. Oil price movements were fairly bland on Tuesday prior to the data release, with the WTI benchmark trading essentially flat on the day at $55.48 while the Brent benchmark trading up $0.37 (+0.57%) at $65.28 at 2:25pm. Both benchmarks were trading down a couple dollars per barrel week on week.While 2019 has been a wild ride for oil prices, inventory moves for crude have been innocuous, with a net build of 147,000 barrels for the eight reporting periods prior to this week, using API data, with only two big swings that essentially cancelled each other out. The API this week reported a draw in gasoline inventories for week ending February 22 in the amount of 3.8 million barrels. Analysts estimated a draw in gasoline inventories of 1.686 million barrels for the week.US crude oil production as estimated by the Energy Information Administration showed that production for the week ending February 15—the latest information available—averaged 12 million barrels per day –another high for the US, breaking yet another psychological barrier.Distillate inventories increased this week by 400,000 barrels, compared to an expected draw of 1.951 million barrels. Crude oil inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma facility grew by 2.0 million barrels for the week.
WTI Spikes After Biggest Crude Draw In 7 Months - WTI jumped overnight after API reported a surprise crude draw and Saudi Arabia signaled that OPEC and allies will continue with production cuts despite pressure from President Trump earlier in the week. Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Energy Analyst Vince Piazza notes that crude balances are tightening under strict compliance with curbs by OPEC and its partners. We've said since last year that extending the curbs in 2H will be necessary to maintain elevated sentiment for oil. Our takeaways from 4Q earnings suggest heightened efficiency and productivity from U.S. producers in 2019, with lower spending and higher output. A backlog of almost 8,800 uncompleted U.S. wells informs our cautious stance on prices, and we remain concerned about the possibility that trade tensions could slow global economic growth. If EIA doesn’t confirm the drop, “we risk seeing part of today’s gains unravel, notably as U.S. crude production is expected to be near or at the record high of 12m b/d reported last week," says Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity-markets strategy at BNP Paribas. DOE:
- Crude -8.647mm (3mm exp) - biggest since July 2018
- Cushing +1.63mm
- Gasoline -1.906mm (-1.25mm exp)
- Distillates -304k
Confirming API's surprise draw, DOE reported a huge 8.65mm crude inventory decline (the biggest since July 2018). The crude stockpiles in Cushing had a big build in last week's data, driven by a temporary outage on a segment of the Keystone Pipeline.
Oil rises on OPEC-led supply cuts, report of falling US crude inventories --Oil prices rose on Wednesday, buoyed by an unexpected decline in U.S. crude inventories and after Saudi Arabia appeared undaunted by pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump on OPEC to prevent steeper price rises. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said OPEC and its partners were "taking it easy" in response to a tweet from Trump on Monday that called on the group to slacken its restrictions on crude production. "We are taking it easy. The 25 countries are taking a very slow and measured approach. Just as the second half of last year proved, we are interested in market stability first and foremost," Falih said in Riyadh when asked to comment on Trump's tweet, CNBC reported.Falih added that he is leaning toward extending the deal to curb output into the second half of 2019, but OPEC remains flexible and will assess market conditions before making a decision.The oil price has risen by almost a quarter so far this year, after OPEC, together with other producers such as Russia and Oman, agreed to cut output to avoid the build-up of a global surplus, particularly as U.S. output has boomed. International Brent crude futures were up 86 cents, or 1.3 percent on the day, at $66.07 a barrel around 9:05 a.m. ET (1305 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose $1.10, or 2 percent, to $56.60 a barrel."Donald Trump tweeted and OPEC replied. It was not the message he wanted to hear so the story is not over yet," PVM Oil Associates strategist Tamas Varga said. Trump tweeted on Monday, warning about the threat of high oil prices and called on OPEC to "take it easy", which triggered the biggest one-day drop in the futures price so far this year."Trump's tweet is likely to have been sparked in particular by the sharp rise in U.S. gasoline prices," Commerzbank said.U.S. gasoline futures have risen by more than 16 percent in the last month, compared with a near-6 percent rise in U.S. crude futures. Based on current market data, the so-called OPEC+ group is "likely to continue with the production cuts until the end of the year," a Gulf OPEC source told Reuters on Tuesday.
Oil surges 2.6%, settling at $56.94, as US crude stocks plunge and Saudis brush off Trump tweet -- Oil prices surged more than 2 percent on Wednesday after government data showed an unexpected and sharp drop in U.S. crude stockpiles. Prices were already higher after Saudi Arabia's influential energy minister brushed aside pressure from President Donald Trump to tread carefully as OPEC and its allies cut output.U.S. commercial crude stockpiles fell by 8.6 million barrels in the week through Feb. 22, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported. That was more than twice the drop of 4.2 million barrels reported by the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday. It also confounded the forecasts in a Reuters survey for a rise of 2.8 million barrels.Meanwhile, U.S. gasoline stocks fell by by 1.9 million barrels, while inventories of distillate fuels like diesel ticked down by about 300,000 barrels.U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures jumped $1.44, or 2.6 percent, settling Wednesday's session at $56.94 a barrel. International Brent crude futures rose $1.19, or 1.8 percent on the day, at $66.40 a barrel around 2:25 p.m. ET. The weekly report also showed weekly U.S. oil production ticking up to a record 12.1 million barrels per day. Crude exports at nearly 3.4 million bpd also remained close to last week's all-time high of 3.6 million bpd.Crude futures have been supported this year by OPEC's deal with Russia and other producers to keep 1.2 million bpd off the market in order to drain a global oversupply. The move follows a collapse in crude prices in the final quarter of last year.But oil prices plunged more than 3 percent on Monday after Trump tweeted at OPEC, saying the the cost of crude is rising too much and urging the group to "please relax and take it easy."Trump hounded OPEC throughout last year, blaming the group for high oil prices and lobbying for it to end an earlier round of production cuts. OPEC ultimately lifted the caps in June, before agreeing to restore them in December.On Wednesday, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih responded to Trump, saying the kingdom and its partners are indeed proceeding cautiously during the fresh round of output cuts. "We are taking it easy. The 25 countries are taking a very slow and measured approach. Just as the second half of last year proved, we are interested in market stability first and foremost," Falih told CNBC.
Oil Prices Edge Down Amid Record US Crude Output - - Oil prices edged down on Thursday in Asia amid signs of surging U.S. crude oil production. Crude Oil WTI Futures dropped 0.1% to $56.89 per barrel by 12:27 AM ET (05:27 GMT). International Brent Oil Futures fell 0.3% to $66.41. Both WTI and Brent are up more than 30% from Christmas Eve lows, and about 25% or so higher since January after the OPEC+ production cuts announced on Dec. 7. Prices were under pressure on Thursday after the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed American crude output rose by more than 2 million barrels per day over the last year. On the other hand, the EIA also reported that crude oil inventories fell by 8.65 million barrels in the week to Feb. 22 compared to forecasts for a build of 2.84 million. It was the first U.S. crude stockpile drop in six weeks, coming after the production cuts by OPEC. In the previous week to Feb. 15, crude balances had risen by nearly 3.7 million barrels. Separately, weaker-than-expected Chinese PMI data also weighed on oil prices. Data on Thursday showed that the official Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) fell to 49.2 in February, the weakest level since February 2016. It is the latest sign that China’s economy is still losing steam, after last year's growth cooled to a near 30-year low. China is the world’s biggest oil importer
Oil steadies after rally as Chinese data and trade dispute create headwinds - Oil prices were mixed on Thursday, following a volatile trading period that saw crude futures plunge more than 3 percent at the start of the week and rally more than 2 percent in the previous session.Crude futures recovered on Wednesday after Saudi Arabia's influential oil minister brushed off pressure from President Donald Trump to "take it easy" on price-boosting production cuts. Trump's warning to Saudi Arabia and its fellow OPEC members was the catalyst for oil's decline earlier in the week.An unexpected plunge in U.S. crude stockpiles added fuel to Wednesday's rally.But on Thursday, traders said the oil market was dealing with several headwinds, as U.S.-China trade tensions persisted, the Chinese economy showed signs of slowing and record U.S. production undermined OPEC-led output curbs. Brent crude was down 33 cents, or half a percent, at $66.06 per barrel around 10:45 a.m. ET (1545 GMT).U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 23 cents, or nearly half a percent, at $57.17.
WTI Tumbles Back Below $57 After US Offers To Sell Oil From SPR - Having failed to push the Saudis to stem prices (in fact being largely ignored), the Trump administration, according to Bloomberg headlines, has decided to counter high oil prices by offering to sell 5mm barrels from the SPR...WTI dropped on the headlines... We will see how long this dip holds as Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak and his Saudi Arabian counterpart Khalid Al-Falih discussed bilateral and multilateral cooperation on the phone, Russian ministry says in a statement on its website.
Is This The End Of A Record-Breaking Oil Rally- - Oil was down a few days ago, but is set to close out the week with another gain, pushing WTI and Brent close to their highest level in three months. Citgo completed its breakup with PDVSA, cutting off a crucial stream of revenue for the Venezuelan government. The opposition, led by self-proclaimed president Juan Guaidó, hopes to obtain control of Citgo and its resources, which would provide the new government with a revenue base. Recent data from Kpler and the WSJ suggests that Venezuela’s oil exports have only declined to about 1.1 mb/d, evidence that the Maduro government is still finding buyers for its oil. ExxonMobil replaced three times its annual production in 2018, the largest reserve-replacement ratio in over a decade. The increase largely came from a re-booking of reserves in Canada’s oil sands that had been written off in 2016 due to low oil prices. In total, Exxon added 4.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent last year, bringing its total to 24.3 billion boe. ExxonMobil made a substantial natural gas discovery off the coast of Cyprus, adding to the bounty in the Eastern Mediterranean. According to Wood Mackenzie, Exxon’s Glaucus field could be one of the largest this year. “Glaucus is a giant,” said Robert Morris, senior research analyst at Wood Mackenzie, according to the FT. “The discovery maintains the east Mediterranean’s position as one of the world’s premier exploration hotspots.” Investors are souring on the oil majors, according to the FT. The majors face both short- and long-term headwinds, including low oil prices stemming from abundant U.S. shale supply combined with the long-term fears of peak oil demand. “There’s just this hate for this commodity right now,” Bernstein analyst Bob Bracket told the FT. That could affect how the industry proceeds going forward. “The structural challenges the industry faces aren’t going to go away, so energy companies of all sizes need to clearly articulate how they will allocate investors’ capital and prioritise shareholder returns in a manner that rebuilds confidence,”
Oil rises on OPEC's cuts, but soaring US exports and economic slowdown weigh -- Oil prices edged higher on Friday as surging U.S. supply and concerns of a global economic slowdown were offset by falling OPEC output.International Brent crude futures were at $66.38 per barrel, up 7 cents from Thursday's settlement. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures were at $57.50 per barrel, up 28 cents.The 14-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped 30.68 million barrels per day (bpd) in February, a Reuters survey showed on Friday, down 300,000 bpd from January and the lowest OPEC total since 2015.In Venezuela, oil exports have plunged by 40 percent to around 920,000 barrels per day (bpd) since the U.S. government slapped sanctions on its petroleum industry on Jan. 28.OPEC, of which Venezuela is a founding member, is leading efforts to withhold around 1.2 million bpd of supply from the market to prop up prices. Venezuela is exempt from the cuts."OPEC and its 10 allies are doing their job and this time they are stubborn," London-based brokerage PVM said in a note, referring to the supply restrictions which have been in place since the start of the year.The fall in OPEC production comes at a time when the United States is pumping oil at record rates. The U.S. Energy Department said on Thursday it was offering up to 6 million barrels of crude from national emergency stocks to raise funds to modernise U.S. strategic oil reserves. Canada's main oil-producing province of Alberta on Thursday raised the amount of crude that companies can produce in April to 3.66 million barrels per day, an increase of 100,000 bpd from the limit imposed in January. On the demand side, a Reuters poll showed analysts expect global fuel consumption to dip this year in the face of a broad economic slowdown.
Oil falls 2 percent as demand worries overtake supply cuts Reuters (Reuters) - Oil prices settled down about 2 percent on Friday, ending around 3 percent lower on the week as concerns over global demand growth after weak U.S. manufacturing data overshadowed OPEC-led supply cuts and sanctions on Venezuela and Iran. After strengthening early in the session to over a three-month high, U.S. crude futures turned sharply lower on demand worries. The ISM manufacturing activity index in February sank to the lowest since November 2016, and was below expectations. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) futures fell $1.42, or 2.5 percent, to settle at $55.80 per barrel, after hitting $57.88, its highest since mid-November. Global benchmark Brent crude futures for May settled $1.24, or 1.9 percent, lower at $65.07 a barrel. Despite hitting their highest levels since mid-November this week, Brent futures ended the week 3.3 percent lower and WTI dropped 2.7 percent. “We were up all morning until that data hit,” he said. The data sent a strong message to a market that has been looking for direction, The data compounded worries that demand is falling globally. A Reuters poll showed analysts have grown more pessimistic over the prospects for a significant price rally this year, global fuel consumption is expected to dip this year in the face of a broad economic slowdown. China’s February factory activity fell for a third month as the world’s second-largest economy continued to struggle with weak export orders, a private survey showed on Friday. The weakness is also being felt across the wider region. South Korea’s exports contracted at their steepest pace in nearly three years in February as demand from China cooled further. Despite this, fuel consumption, especially in Asia’s developing economies which are key drivers of global oil demand, is so far holding up.
Oil prices decline on demand concerns to lose roughly 3% for the week - Oil futures finished sharply lower on Friday, with U.S. and global benchmark prices down roughly 3% for the week as traders focused on a backdrop of weak U.S. economic data and record domestic production.Data showing a drop in OPEC output to its lowest in four years failed to support prices. Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped 30.68 million barrels a day in February, down 300,000 barrels a day from a month earlier and the lowest since 2015, according to a survey from Reuters released Friday.“The market has priced in OPEC to extend their production cuts until year end and markets may need a new catalyst to take crude higher,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda. On Friday, April West Texas Intermediate crude fell $1.42, or 2.5%, to settle at $55.80 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract lost about 2.6% for the week. Based on the front-month contracts, prices climbed 6.4% for the month of February, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Global benchmark May Brent settled at $65.07, down $1.24, or 1.9%, on ICE Futures Europe. Prices based on the front-month contract saw a weekly loss of 3.2% after rising 6.7% for February. The decline in oil prices likely caught “traders off guard,” said Scott Gecas, chief market strategist at Walsh Trading, particularly given the news on OPEC output. Still, “one could make the case for a lower price based on the ISM headline.” Weaker-than-expected data on U.S. manufacturing and consumer sentiment, on the heels of a fall in Chinese factory activity to its lowest in three years, raised worries about energy demand. Data Friday showed American manufacturing grew their businesses in February at the slowest pace since the election of President Donald Trump in November 2016, with the ISM manufacturing survey falling to 54.2 in February from 56.6. Meanwhile, the final reading of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index faded in February, with a 93.8 reading, below the MarketWatch-compiled economist consensus of 95.6.
Has Trump Overplayed His Hand With Saudi Arabia? - Last year, President Donald Trump successfully convinced Saudi Arabia to help keep a lid on global oil prices by ramping up production. The Saudis acquiescence to Trump’s tweets at the time were likely appeasement to the president for placing fresh sanctions against Saudi Arabia’s middle eastern nemesis, Iran. Moreover, most concede that Riyadh was a deciding factor in swaying the president to withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear accord with Iran. Consequently, Saudi Arabia’s kowtow to Trumps’ tweets was a returned favor. However, when Trump later granted waivers that allowed several countries to keep importing Iranian crude, oil prices started their nosedive during the last quarter of the year, catching Saudi Arabia flat-footed, and according to many accounts furious at the president for what they saw as a betrayal of trust.Now, Trump is tweeting again about high global oil prices and asking OPEC+ to reconsider its oil production cut deal that was implemented at the start of the year. On Monday, the president tweeted “Oil prices getting too high. OPEC, please relax and take it easy. The world cannot take a price hike - fragile!”However, in order to remove excess oil from global markets, particularly due to Trump’s Iranian oil exports waivers in addition to rampant U.S. production that just hit a once unthinkable 12 million barrel per day (bpd), it’s likely that Riyadh will think twice before appeasing the American president - who at the end of the day appears to lack in-depth knowledge of how global oil markets work. In fact, in an apparent rebuke of the president, Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said yesterday that oil inventories in the U.S. are “brimming,” and reducing that glut remains the main goal for the group, adding that the kingdom plans further curbs to output in March.
OPEC rescued oil from 'total collapse,' Barkindo says, but the US prevented 'major chaos' - Oil producing group OPEC is responsible for salvaging the entire oil industry with its deal to curb output, OPEC's secretary general told CNBC, but the U.S. shale revolution has helped to prevent "major, major energy chaos" in the world."OPEC has been doing a great service," to producers and global oil markets, Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo told CNBC's Dan Murphy in Riyadh on Wednesday."The decisions that OPEC took, together with our non-OPEC partners, literally rescued this industry from total collapse," he said.Asked for his perspective on the U.S. Congress' consideration of antitrust legislation that could hurt OPEC – specifically, the "No-Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act" (NOPEC) bill that could allow OPEC to be sued for coordinating production and influencing oil prices – Barkindo said actions taken by OPEC had in fact helped U.S. producers. "You can ask the producers in the shale basins in the U.S. whether they have benefitted from the actions we have taken over the years," Barkindo said. "In particular, during this longest cycle where we saw prices crash by over 80 percent at one point, where we saw the supply and demand balance in (a period of) disequilibrium that had never been witnessed, where we saw more than 100 U.S. companies file for bankruptcy with all the negative consequences on the industry, the regions where they operate … no party was insulated," he said. Oil prices fell dramatically from a high of around $114 a barrel in June 2014 to a low of around $27 a barrel in January 2016 amid a sharp imbalance in supply and demand. The fall in prices was largely attributed to weaker global demand amid a supply glut from the likes of the U.S. which has experienced what's known as the 'shale revolution' which has made it the largest oil producer in the world, as well as major producers Saudi Arabia and Russia. The fall in oil prices hit producing nations hard, especially in the U.S., whose producers have higher production costs.
Yemen family marries off 3-year-old girl for food – - A family in Yemen has married off their three-year-old daughter in exchange for food and shelter, international charity Oxfam warned yesterday.“Conflict, rising food prices and plummeting incomes in Yemen are forcing people to resort to desperate measures to stave off hunger,” Oxfam said in a press release.“Since the escalation in conflict in 2015, food prices in Yemen have soared while household incomes have plummeted, pushing the costs of basic foods beyond the reach of many,” the statement said.The warning comes as rich countries meet in the Swiss city of Geneva to pledge aid for the humanitarian crisis in Yemen which has left almost ten million people one step away from famine. “Oxfam spoke to families in Amran governorate in the North who, hungry and isolated after fleeing their homes, have been forced to marry off their daughters – in one case as young as three years old – to buy food and shelter to save the rest of the family,” the organisation said in its statement.Oxfam’s Yemen Country Director Muhsin Siddiquey said: “As this war has gone on, people’s means of coping with devastating levels of hunger have become more and more desperate. They’re being forced to take steps that blight their children’s lives now and for decades to come. This is a direct result of a man-made humanitarian catastrophe caused by the conflict. Just over a week ago, Yemen’s internationally recognised government and the Houthis agreed on the first phase of a withdrawal from the key port city of Hudaydah, following talks between the parties in Sweden in December. Reaching the agreement has been slow and it’s not yet clear what, if any, impact it will have.
Theresa May Calls for End to Yemen War, but Continues Selling Weapons to Saudis - — British Prime Minister Theresa May will call on Saudi Arabia’s King Salman to use his influence to encourage Yemeni parties towards peace, telling a summit that governments must redouble efforts to secure a political settlement to the crisis.“My message in Sharm el-Sheikh is clear: let us now redouble our efforts to build on the progress made and get the Stockholm agreements implemented in full,” May was quoted by Reuters, on her way to the EU-League of Arab States summit in Egypt. Speaking at a summit in Egypt on Sunday, the British prime minister pledged £200 million ($261 million) in aid for Yemen, saying the new funding would be used to provide humanitarian aid for millions of people living without access to food or clean water. This comes just days after British foreign secretary, Jeremy Hunt, urged Germany to rethink it’s moratorium on weapons sales to Saudi Arabia. Hunt wants the German government to exempt big defense projects from its efforts to halt arms sales to Saudi Arabia, or face damage to both it’s economic and European credentials.
UN Watchdog Again Confirms Iran in Compliance With P5+1 Nuclear Deal — The UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has issued a statement Friday confirming once again that Iran remains fully in compliance with the P5+1 nuclear deal, and is in line with all nuclear limits contained within that pact.Since the deal went into effect, the IAEA has issued monthly reports repeatedly confirming that Iran has remained in full compliance. To the extent that there has been difficulty in keeping levels of material below the caps, it was related to the US reneging on a promise to buy heavy water from Iran, and even that was quickly resolved.Since the US withdrew outright from the nuclear deal in 2018, they have been pressuring the other signatories to also abandon the deal. The IAEA, however, has defended the terms of the deal, and has been increasingly public about Iran’s compliance continuing in good faith.The US maintains that Iran is in some non-specific way in violation of the deal, though when pressed on the matter it appears to simply boil down to the Trump Administration objecting to the deal’s terms, not that Iran isn’t keeping its word.
Iran's Foreign Minister Javad Zarif resigns --Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif stepped down on Monday, announcing his resignation on Instagram."I am apologising you for all the shortcomings ... in the past years during my time as foreign minister ... I thank the Iranian nation and officials," he wrote on his Instagram page.There was no immediate reason giving for the resignation, which can only take effect if President Hassan Rouhani accepts it. Iran's state-run IRNA news agency cited a spokesman, Abbas Mousavi, confirming Zarif had resigned. Zarif was appointed minister of foreign affairs in August 2013, two years before Iran agreed to scale back its uranium enrichment programme and pledged not to develop nuclear weapons in return for the lifting of international sanctions as part of a landmark nuclear deal brokered with the United States, the UK, France, Germany, Russia, China and the European Union.A vocal supporter of the deal, Zarif has since come under pressure from more hardline power blocs within the Islamic Republic who were opposed to the agreement, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Criticism of the accord has become more intense in recent months following US President Donald Trump's decision in May 2018 to withdraw from the deal and reimpose sanctions on Tehran.
Iran Hardliners Vindicated by Trump Take Aim at Zarif -- Just last week in Munich, Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif looked to be in his element as he addressed his global audience from the podium, dismissing Israeli accusations and taking swipes at U.S. policy failures in his neighborhood. Zarif and his familiar animated style might have vacated the international stage for good after he announced his intention to resign, hinting at domestic political interference in his role. U.S.-educated Zarif’s ability to engage with diplomats and represent the Islamic Republic in fluent, idiomatic English made him a draw at events such as the annual Munich Security Conference. But his international regard has always belied a tortured relationship with his hardline opponents at home, who revile him as an architect of Iran’s stumbling nuclear deal and a symbol of the folly of engagement with the West. President Hassan Rouhani rejected Zarif’s resignation, saying it was against national interests, according to state-run media. But the back and forth shows the internal power struggle over Iran’s future is becoming more urgent, as hardliners are seen as vindicated in their anti-western stance by President Donald Trump’s decision to abandon the nuclear accord and reimpose U.S. sanctions. Perceived success on the battlefields of Syria alongside Russia and Bashar Al-Assad adds to a sense among hardliners that the West has nothing to offer. His supporters say Zarif has been exhausted into bowing out of the fight at home — a victim of Iran’s increasingly polarized politics, where absolutist, dogmatic views have ultimate sway over the levers of power in Tehran. Rouhani Braces for Sanctions With New Ministers in Key Posts Losing him at a time of economic upheaval would be a blow to Rouhani, a fellow moderate, and would mean the nuclear deal faced a real chance of collapsing -- both outcomes cheered by those against reformist moves. “When Rouhani’s term finishes, you will see a shift in Iranian politics,” said Fouad Izadi, assistant professor at the faculty of World Studies at the University of Tehran and a vocal critic of the nuclear deal. “The remaining people who have not resigned will be forced out.”
Stay in your job, Iranian president tells moderate ally Zarif (Reuters) - Iranian President Hassan Rouhani rejected his foreign minister’s resignation as “against national interests” on Wednesday, bolstering a moderate ally who has long been targeted by hardliners in factional struggles over the 2015 nuclear deal with the West. Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, a U.S.-educated veteran diplomat, announced his resignation on Monday in what an aide said was anger at being excluded from meetings that day with Syria’s president, who was visiting Tehran. Two days later, he was back with his position strengthened by the president’s endorsement as well as a chorus of support from moderate lawmakers, a senior Revolutionary Guards commander and, implicitly, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. In a letter published by state news agency IRNA, Rouhani told Zarif: “As the Supreme Leader has described you as a ‘trustworthy, brave and religious’ person in the forefront of resistance against widespread U.S. pressures, I consider accepting your resignation against national interests and reject it.” Senior Revolutionary Guards commander Qassem Soleimani said Zarif, who helped craft the pact that curbed Iran’s nuclear program in return for sanctions relief, was the main person in charge of foreign policy and he was supported by Khamenei. The support came at a time when the clerical establishment is in a vulnerable position amid growing pressure from the United States, and so in need of promoting unity and keeping the reform wing on its side. Iranian leaders reached the conclusion that Washington wants regime change after U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal in May last year. In many of his speeches at the time Khamenei stressed that unity is paramount, and that remains his position as Tehran faces reimposed sanctions.
Video- Iran Hacks Into CENTCOM, Crashes MQ-9 Reaper Drone – Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Aerospace Force Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh revealed on Thursday that several American unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) flying above Syria and Iraq were remotely commandeered by the Iranian Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC)."Seven to eight drones that had constant flights over Syria and Iraq were brought under our control and their intel was monitored by us and we could gain their first-hand intel," General Hajizadeh said in the Western Iranian city of Hamedan on Thursday.Fars News Agency published a three-minute video taken on several different occasions by UAVs. Half of the content shows a General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper hacked by IRGC electronic warfare forces, then flown into the ground. The last segment of the video shows an American air strike targeting the crashed UAV.The footage below shows IRGC’s penetration into United States Central Command, could be seen as evidence that supports General Hajizadeh’s claims. Iran has a long history of pioneering UAV technology. The country has manufactured UAVs since the Iraq-Iran war in the 1980s.
Assad Meets Khamenei in His First Iran Visit Since Syrian War Began — Syrian President Bashar al Assad made his first public visit to his closest regional ally Iran since the start of Syria’s war in 2011, meeting Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran on Monday and championing their alliance, state media reported. Syrian and Iranian state television showed footage of Assad and Khamenei smiling and embracing, and Syrian TV said the two leaders agreed “to continue cooperation at all levels for the interests of the two friendly nations”. Assad regained the upper hand in Syria’s war with the help of Russian air power, Iranian and Lebanese Hezbollah forces, retaking all key population centres from rebels and militants backed variously by some Western powers and Gulf Arabs. The insurgency against his rule is now seen to have collapsed. It was Assad’s first known foreign visit other than to Russia since the war began, and his first to Tehran since 2010.
Al-Qaeda Increases Control Over Syria’s Idlib Province — Late last year, Turkey-backed rebels were decisively overwhelmed by al-Qaeda’s Nusra Front in the Idlib Province, in northern Syria. While Turkey’s allies made mention of resolving this, as an attempt to prevent Syria attacking the area during a ceasefire with Turkey, al-Qaeda never left, and their control has only grown. So while Turkey controls some of northern Aleppo Province, the Idlib Province is now almost entirely under the control of al-Qaeda, and they are ruling under an increasingly strict Islamist rule.Al-Qaeda’s activities are forcing a lot of aid groups to cease activity in the area, and a lot of locals say that they object being ruled over by the faction. They say exactly who supports al-Qaeda is never clear, and so far there is no sign of any resistance. Some are expecting Turkey to intervene, because they’d promised to do so last year to keep Syria from overrunning the area. With Turkey preparing an invasion further east against the Kurds, however, that seems to be low priority, and al-Qaeda is given more and more time solidify its control.
The Most Wanted Millennial Terrorist- US Offers $1 Million For Info On Bin Laden's Son - The US State Department has issued a whopping $1 million bounty for information leading to the whereabouts of Hamza bin Laden, son of al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, who was reportedly killed by US Navy Seals in Pakistan in 2011. US intelligence and counter-terror officials believe the son, now estimated to be 30 to 33 years old, has emerged as leader of the al-Qaeda terror network and is currently trying to track him, especially after new audio and video messages have emerged of him calling for terror attacks against the United States and its allies. via AFPThe US State Department said in a statement this week, "He has released audio and video messages on the Internet, calling on his followers to launch attacks against the United States and its Western allies, and he has threatened attacks against the United States in revenge for the May 2011 killing of his father by US military forces." The new information was posted on the State Deptartment's "Rewards for Justice" program website further says he married the daughter of Mohammed Atta, who was the lead hijacker and a assumed mastermind of the 9/11 terror attacks.
Saudi Arabia Strips Osama Bin Laden’s Son of Citizenship After US Places Bounty — Saudi Arabia has stripped citizenship from Hamza bin Laden, the son of slain al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, the interior ministry said in a statement published by the official gazette Umm al-Qura.The US State Department said on Thursday it was offering a reward of up to $1 million for information leading “to the identification or location in any country” of Hamza, seeing him as an emerging face in his father’s organisation.The location of Hamza bin Laden has been the subject of speculation for years with reports of him living in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Syria or under house arrest in Iran.“Hamza bin Laden is the son of deceased former AQ leader Osama bin Laden and is emerging as a leader in the AQ franchise,” a State Department statement said, referring to al-Qaeda. Osama bin Laden, scion of the wealthy Saudi bin Laden family, was stripped of his citizenship in 1994 by King Fahd. Bin Laden, who according to the United States is around 30, has threatened attacks against the US to avenge the 2011 killing of his father, who was living in hiding in the Pakistani garrison town of Abbottabad, by US special forces.Letters from Osama bin Laden seized from his compound indicated that he had been training Hamza, thought to be his favourite son, to replace him as leader of al-Qaeda.In 2015, bin Laden released an audio message urging radical fighters in Syria to unite, claiming that the fight in the war-torn country paves the way to “liberating Palestine.” In a message a year later, following in the footsteps of his father, he urged the overthrow of the leadership in their native Saudi Arabia, the AFP news agency reported.
US Army Takes 50 Tons of Stolen Gold From Syria in Alleged Deal With ISIS — As the remaining pockets of ISIS fighters faced imminent defeat in northeast Syria, the United States allegedly gave them an offer they couldn’t refuse: give us your massive caches of gold — or die.According to reports by Syrian state news agency SANA, U.S. forces struck a deal with ISIS whereby the terrorist group would give up 50 tons of gold across eastern Syria’s Deir el-Zour province in exchange for safe passage.The precious metal, worth about $2.13 billion, was plundered by the self-designated “caliphate” as its reign of terror spread across Syria and Iraq between 2015 and 2017.Turkish newspaper Daily Sabah reports that local sources claim U.S. Army helicopters have already transferred the gold from the U.S. forces’ base in Kobani, the Kurdish-controlled city that lies close to Syria’s northern border with Syria. A portion of the gold was also distributed to the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), which dominates the U.S.-allied Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).The news comes after SANA claimed that locals witnessed U.S. helicopters airlifting large cases of gold amounting to about 40 tons from the al-Dashisha area in Hasaka’s southern countryside earlier this month. The gold was purportedly looted by ISIS from Mosul in Iraq and other parts of Syria.The Syrian state media outlet claimed that ISIS leaders were on-hand to guide the U.S. helicopters to the places where the gold was stashed, “closing a deal by which Washington spared hundreds of the terror organization’s field leaders and experts.”
As US withdraws troops from Syria, France and UK remain in the back seat Trump's announcement on December 18 that the US would withdraw its 2,000 troops from Syria provoked consternation amongst its European allies – most notably France and the UK, the old continent’s largest military powers, both of which have special forces in the country. The former says it has “around 1,000” soldiers in Syria; the UK has not revealed how many troops it has on the ground. In the immediate aftermath of this declaration from the White House, Paris and London both refuted Trump’s claim that “we have won against ISIS” (another name for the Islamic State group), with French Defence Minister Florence Parly insisting that the “Islamic State [another name for the Islamic State group] has not been wiped from the map”, while the UK Foreign Office asserted that “much remains to be done and we must not lose sight of the threat [the IS group] pose”. Speaking to Reuters on December 20, a French presidential source went further, stating that “the coalition’s spine is the United States”. Adding to French and British concerns, the Kurdish forces who took back control swathes of northeastern Syria from the IS group warned that, if attacked without Western support, they may no longer be able to guard the hundreds of European jihadists held in their jails – leading to US calls for European countries to repatriate these prisoners. Yet despite the Franco-British protestations, neither country has committed to increasing its military presence in Syria. One French government official even told AFP on February 15: “It is totally out of the question to have French troops on the ground without the Americans there”.
Russia Wants to Get Iran Out of Syria, Netanyahu Says After Putin Meet - Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Wednesday aftermeeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow that getting the Iranians and all foreign fighters out of Syria is also one of Russia's stated goals. A diplomatic source added that Putin did not place limitations on Israel's actions in Syria.Netanyahu said the meeting with Putin was "good and productive," emphasizing that Putin accepted his invitation to visit Jerusalem.In a Tweet on Wednesday, Putin said he would participate in the opening ceremony for a new monument in Jerusalem commemorating victims and survivors of the World War II Siege of Leningrad. There is no date set yet for this visit, which the two countries will agree on a later time.Netanyahu added that the two spoke mostly about Iranian entrenchment in Syria and the S-300 air-defense system that Russia delivered to Syria in September.The prime minister also said that the Israeli delegation brought with it to the meeting intelligence materials. He added that Russia seeks to get Syria back to the way it was before the civil war.Regarding Israel's actions in Syria, the diplomatic source told reporters that "the policy is that we will continue to act and it's accepted with understanding." Referring to the downing of the Russian spy plane in Syria in September 2018, the source added that the crisis is "behind us."
IDF Launches Surprise Military Drill Simulating War In Gaza - Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launched a three-day war drill along the Gaza Strip border simulating various military maneuver, including a full-blown war with terrorist organizations in the coastal enclave, the IDF said in a statement Sunday.The field training exercise, which will measure the operational readiness of IDF soldiers for various combat scenarios “especially in the Gaza Strip,” will include infantry units, artillery, armored personnel carriers, main battle tanks, and aircraft, the statement read. The exercise will also include armored personnel carriers and helicopters moving large numbers of troops to different regions, live-fire exercises, and aerial bombing raids.Though a surprise announcement, the IDF said the drill had been planned for some time as part of its regular training schedule.“We emphasize that the exercise was planned as part of the training program and is intended to maintain the readiness and readiness of the forces,” the IDF statement said.The drill comes amid an increase of nighttime riots at the Gaza border fence, which includes throwing explosives over the barrier and the return of airborne arson attacks directed at Israel. The Jerusalem Post said Lt.-Gen. Aviv Kochavi attended a meeting with senior officers at IDF Southern Command. Military leaders agreed on a new operational plan in the event of war, including the formation of a centralized administrative unit that would prepare a list of potential targets in Gaza for special forces.
Israeli Bulldozers uproot 300 Palestinian-Owned Trees near Jenin — Israeli bulldozers razed dozens of dunams and uprooted hundreds of Palestinian-owned trees, on Monday afternoon, on lands belonging to residents from the Bartaa village, southwest of the northern occupied West Bank district of Jenin. According to local sources, Israeli forces along with bulldozers stormed the area and began to raze about 28 dunams (6.9 acres) of land. In addition, bulldozers uprooted 300 almond and olive trees. Sources added that the razed land belonged to Jamal Sharif Amarneh. According to Palestinians and rights groups, Israel’s main goal, both in its policies in Area C, in which more than 60% of Palestinian land is under full Israeli control, and Israel’s illegal settlement enterprise, is to depopulate the land of its Palestinian residents and to replace them with Jewish Israeli communities, in order to manipulate population demographics in all of historic Palestine. The movement of Israeli settlers taking over Palestinian land, and further displacing the local Palestinian population has been a “stable” Israeli policy since the takeover of the West Bank and Jerusalem in 1967, B’Tselem said, underscoring that all “Israeli legislative, legal, planning, funding, and defense bodies” have played an active role in the dispossession of Palestinians from their lands.
Israeli Extremists Are Making a Comeback—With the Help of US Tax Dollars - As Israel’s April 9 election approaches, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has paved the way for a Jewish-supremacist party—which some are dubbing the Jewish KKK—to enter the next Israeli Knesset. He encouraged the merger of three small far-right parties, Jewish Home, National Union, and Jewish Power (Otzma Yehudit in Hebrew), since each of them separately was not expected to receive enough votes to make the minimum Knesset threshold. If Netanyahu is reelected, the new far-right party, assuming it receives enough votes to make the minimum, would then help him secure a governing coalition of at least 61 seats. All three parties are nationalist, anti-Arab, and homophobic; however, Jewish Power stands out because its platform and leaders are inspired by the violent legacy of Meir Kahane and his Kach party, which was barred from running in the Knesset in 1988 on grounds of racism, and then outlawed in 1994 on grounds of incitement to terrorism after Baruch Goldstein, who was active in Kach, murdered 29 Palestinians in Hebron exactly 25 years ago Monday. The US State Department followed suit and listed Kach and an offshoot, Kahane Chai (Kahane Lives), as a foreign terrorist group in 1997. One of Jewish Power’s leaders, Michael Ben-Ari, who served in the Knesset from 2009 to 2013, was barred from entering the United States in 2012 because of his affiliation with a “terrorist organization.” In the 20-plus years since Kach was banned, Kahane’s disciples have found ways to continue pushing a racist, anti-Arab, and antidemocratic agenda—and to fund it. A new investigation carried out in coordination with the Democratic Bloc, an Israeli nonprofit organization founded in 2018 to research and monitor antidemocratic trends in Israel, reveals a web of interconnected groups, individuals, and websites in Israel and the United States—including several American nonprofit foundations that appear to have been founded for the purpose of funneling tax-exempt dollars to Kahanist causes, some of which are directly linked to Jewish terrorist groups. “If in the past, they relied on political mechanisms for fundraising and recruiting activists, today we are talking about a network of organizations disguised as charity groups and social causes that are raising money from the State of Israel and abroad in order to continue inciting and undermining the foundations of democracy,” said Ran Cohen, one of the founders of the Democratic Bloc.
Israeli Troops May Have Committed 'Crimes Against Humanity' In Gaza Protests- UN - -Investigators from the United Nations said on Thursday that Israeli troops who shot unarmed civilians - including children - may have committed crimes against humanity during the "Great March of Return" protests last year at the border with Gaza. According to the New York Times, the UN Human Rights Council formed a commission of inquiry, which reported that Israeli security forces had killed 189 Palestinians while injuring more than 9,000. According to a 25-page report by the commission, Israeli authorities have shown little willingness to hold those responsible to account. Of the 189 Palestinians killed, investigators said, 183 were shot with live ammunition, including 35 children, three health workers and two journalists. It reported 6,106 people wounded by live ammunition, including 940 children, 39 health workers and 39 journalists. In addition, 3,098 people were injured by bullet fragments or other shrapnel, or were struck directly by tear gas canisters or rubber bullets.The panel found that four Israelis were wounded in the clashes, and none were killed. -New York Times"The Israeli security forces killed and maimed Palestinian demonstrators who did not pose an imminent threat of death or serious injury to others when they were shot, nor were they directly participating in hostilities," wrote the panel. "Less lethal alternatives remained available and substantial defenses were in place, rendering the use of lethal force neither necessary nor proportionate, and therefore impermissible."
Benjamin Netanyahu- Israel PM faces corruption charges - Israel's attorney general intends to indict Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on corruption charges. Mr Netanyahu faces possible charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust in connection with three cases. The prime minister is alleged to have accepted gifts from wealthy businessmen and dispensed favours to try to get more positive press coverage. Mr Netanyahu, who faces an election, said in a TV address that the case would "collapse like a house of cards". In a defiant broadcast, he repeated his assertion that he is the victim of a left-wing "witch-hunt" intended to topple him ahead of the closely contested election on 9 April. A final hearing, probably after the election, will determine whether the charges go forward. The prime minister will have an opportunity to make his case then. Mr Netanyahu is set to be charged with fraud and breach of trust for accepting expensive gifts - including cigars, pink champagne and jewellery worth $264,100 (£199,200) - from an Israeli-born Hollywood film producer Arnon Milchan and the Australian billionaire James Packer. The gifts from Mr Milchan are alleged to have been in return for help with a US visa and tax breaks. Mr Milchan and Mr Packer face no charges and have denied any wrongdoing. In two other cases, Mr Netanyahu is accused of trying to get more favourable press coverage for himself. Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit says he is considering charges of fraud and breach of trust in both, and bribery in one of them. The most serious case is seen as that involving media mogul Shaul Elovitch, controller of Israel's largest telecom company, Bezeq. Mr Netanyahu is accused of seeking favourable coverage from an Elovitch-owned news site in return for regulatory decisions that would benefit the media mogul.
Israel’s Netanyahu Officially Indicted on Bribery and Fraud Charges — Three months after Israeli police recommended that the country’s attorney general pursue charges against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over his alleged involvement in “Bezeq Walla Affair,” it appears an indictment is finally being handed down on Thursday, much to the longtime leader’s chagrin.Since Netanyahu and his wife have become embroiled in multiple scandals over the past few years, seemingly all of which have yielded recommendations of prosecution, let us pause a moment for a quick refresher on the most serious allegations.The crux of the case is that Netanyahu and his wife accepted bribes from Shaul Elovitch, the owner of Israel’s largest telecoms firm, Bezeq. Elovitch also owns the “Walla” news website. The prime minister crossed a line when he allegedly fired Communications Ministry Director-General Avi Berger and hired ex-Netanyahu campaign manager Shlomo Filber in a bid to help guarantee special treatment for Elovitch and his companies. In exchange, Netanyahu and his wife purportedly struck a deal with Elovitch for favorable coverage on his news website. In addition to the bribery and breach of trust charges stemming from Bezeq-Walla, Israel’s Attorney General Avichai Mendelblit said Thursday that he intends to indict Netanyahu for fraud and breach of trust in two other cases. All charges are pending a hearing where Netanyahu will be given a chance to respond, according to Haaretz. The indictments, which followed a three-year long investigation, mark the first time in Israel’s history that a sitting prime minister has been indicted, and come just six weeks before a general election (though Netanyahu is far from the first Israeli politician to face serious criminal charges). A brief explanation of the charges can be found below:
UN: American airstrikes contribute to record number of children, civilians killed in Afghanistan - Stars and Stripes - — More civilians were killed in the war in Afghanistan last year than any other year since records began, with child deaths alone also reaching an all-time high, partly due to a spike in U.S. airstrikes, the United Nations said in a report on Sunday. The findings added to a litany of discouraging data on the U.S.’s longest war and were released a day before American and Taliban officials were to resume direct talks in Qatar, which could lead to the U.S. pulling out of the 17-year conflict. The U.N. Assistance Mission in Afghanistan documented more than 3,800 civilian deaths in the country last year, including about 930 children, both annual records. Nearly 11,000 civilian casualties in total were recorded throughout the year. UNAMA attributed most of the casualties to anti-government forces, predominantly the Taliban and local Islamic State affiliate, with pro-government forces being blamed for about a quarter of the deaths and injuries. However, pro-government forces — which include the U.S. military — were shown to have killed more Afghan children last year than their adversaries, which UNAMA said was largely due to U.S. airstrikes. Responding to Sunday’s report, the U.S.-led NATO mission in Afghanistan said “all feasible precautions” are taken to limit civilian casualties and that it investigates all allegations. According to NATO investigations, airstrikes by foreign forces caused 117 civilian casualties last year, including 62 deaths. That’s about a fifth of the U.N.’s tally. In a statement of its own, the Taliban called UNAMA’s report “one-sided.” A ramped-up bombing campaign has been part of the Trump administration’s strategy for pushing the Taliban to the negotiating table. The U.S. dropped more munitions over the country last year than the previous three years combined, according to Air Force data. Airstrikes by Afghan and international forces killed approximately the same number of Afghan civilians in 2018 as the collective total of the previous three years, the UNAMA report revealed.
New US Peace Plan Would Remove All Troops From Afghanistan Within 5 Years- NYT - As the American military pulls its troops out of Syria, a process that's expected to wrap up over the next month, President Trump's focus will likely shift toward winding down America's most intractable "forever war": The ongoing battle against the Taliban in Afghanistan. After arriving at an agreement in principle with the Taliban last month, the New York Times on Thursday published a report about next steps, citing a group of anonymous European and US officials, who offered a broad-strokes accounting of a withdrawal plan that's rapidly gaining support in Washington and Brussels. The plan, which as become part of the negotiations with the Taliban over a possible power-sharing agreement with the government in Kabul that would bring about an end to the fighting, would involve halving the number of American troops in the country over the coming months - reducing their numbers from roughly 14,000 to 7,000, and shifting the focus of military operations from a "counterinsurgency" framework to focus on "counterterrorism" operations. Ultimately, the plan calls for all European and US troops to leave Afghanistan in 5 years, while the US and Europe would continue a measure of financial support for the troubled Afghan military. Until the withdrawal has been completed, US troops would continue attacks on Al Qaeda and ISIS forces in Afghanistan, including partnering with Afghan commandos for training and raids. Over the coming five years, European forces would continue their training work with the Afghan military, while US would shift more resources to providing logistical support - some of which could be based outside of Afghanistan - would still be made available.
Despite sanctions, Russian tanker supplied fuel to North Korean ship-crew members (Reuters) - A Russian tanker violated international trade sanctions by transferring fuel to a North Korean vessel at sea at least four times between October 2017 and May 2018, two crew members who witnessed the transfers said. Such transactions could have helped provide North Korea with an economic lifeline and eased the isolation of the secretive communist state, whose leader, Kim Jong Un, is due to meet U.S. President Donald Trump in Vietnam this week. Primportbunker, the owner of the vessel the crew members said made the transfers, did not respond to requests for comment by telephone. No one answered the door when Reuters visited the building where Primportbunker has its headquarters in the port city of Vladivostok on Russia’s Pacific coast. On the four voyages between Oct. 13, 2017, and May 7, 2018, the Tantal tanker gave its destination as the Chinese port of Ningbo when it set sail, according to port documents seen by Reuters and tracking data from financial data company Refinitiv. It then met up in international waters with a North Korean vessel to which it transferred its cargo of fuel, the two crew members who witnessed the transfers said. The two crew said the fuel transfers took place when the Tantal’s transponder, which allows the vessel to be tracked at sea, was not operating. Shipping industry experts said this indicates the transponder was deliberately turned off or the Tantal had entered a zone not covered by ship-tracking radar. On each occasion, the transponder started operating again when the Tantal was close to port in Russia, the two crew said. They declined to give their names, citing fear of reprisals.
Vietnamese tanker bound for North Korea with gasoline cargo as Trump, Kim meet in Hanoi -- A Vietnamese tanker was bound for North Korea carrying 2,000 tonnes of gasoline, Refinitiv shipping data showed, just as North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and U.S. President Donald Trump prepared for key talks on security and cooperation in the Vietnamese capital Hanoi.The vessel, the Viet Tin 01, arrived just outside the harbor of Nampo on North Korea's western coast on Feb. 25 carrying 2,000 tonnes of gasoline, according to the data compiled by Refinitiv. The data tracks ships' movements as well as providing details of their cargoes and official destinations as registered by shippers.It wasn't immediately clear whether the tanker unloaded cargo at Nampo.Under sanctions imposed by the United Nations, North Korea is heavily restricted in its imports of crude oil and refined petroleum products.Trump and Kim began a second day of talks on Thursday, with both sides expressing hope for progress on improving relations and the key issue of denuclearization in the pair's second summit meeting.The 5,000 deadweight tonne tanker - small by industry standards - was scheduled to deliver the fuel to Daesan in South Korea, according to its official destination registered in the shipping data. The vessel still showed Daesan as its destination as of Feb. 28, according to the data. The Viet Tin 01's previous stops were Taiwan, Singapore and Bangladesh. It was not immediately clear where the ship loaded the gasoline.
MbS In China- Strikes $10BN Refinery Deal, Chinese To Be Taught In All Saudi Schools - On Friday Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) met with Chinese President Xi Jingping hours after finalizing a $10 billion deal for Saudi Aramco to establish a refining and petrochemical complex in China. It was the culmination of the crown prince's two day visit to China, and the last stop in a three country tour geared toward expanding the kingdom's trade ties in the East, and as both Beijing and Riyadh face mounting pressure from the United States. The Saudi national oil company Aramco has lately been seeking expansion outside of the kingdom and appears to be maneuvering to benefit from Xi's ambitious Belt and Road initiative. The deal follows the much more substantial $65bn in deals signed between the countries two years earlier and are part of MbS' efforts to diversify beyond his borders. Xi and MbS also spoke about combating extremism and joint counter terror efforts — an issue that's been met with increasingly critical coverage related to China's well known Muslim Uighur detention camps. In total, Saudi Arabia signed 35 economic cooperation agreements with China worth $28bn at a joint investment forum during the MbS trip, Saudi state news agency SPA said, on a tour that also included participation of top Aramco executives. The planned site for the new refinery project is the coastal area near Panjin in China's northeast rustbelt province of Liaoning, an area seen as lagging in growth in recent years. Following a tour of the Great Wall, President Xi Jinping told the crown prince at a press conference, “China is a good friend and partner to Saudi Arabia.” Xi has in recent years prioritized stepping up China's presence in the Middle East. He added further, “The special nature of our bilateral relationship reflects the efforts you have made.” MbS responded by noting Saudi Arabia’s relations with China dated back “a very long time in the past”. He said, “In the hundreds, even thousands, of years, the interactions between the sides have been friendly. Over such a long period of exchanges with China, we have never experienced any problems with China,” according to Reuters. Related to this, and perhaps the more interesting aspect to the trip, is that cultural exchange appears to have been a key emphasis, given the Saudi Foreign Ministry announced after the Xi-MbS meeting on Friday that the kingdom has committed to implementing Chinese language programs in schools across the kingdom.
China and Saudi Arabia- The Xinjiang Factor - As the Jamal Khashoggi affair and the ongoing war in Yemen continually increase the amount of criticism that Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) receives in Western countries, he embarked this month on a three-leg Asia tour with stops in Pakistan, India, and China. The crown prince’s main objective was to secure greater Asian support for Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia’s grand economic reform agenda. His trip also took place against the backdrop of reduced American influence in the Middle East and the Trump administration’s incoherent foreign policy. Such factors have prompted Saudi Arabia, and virtually all of Washington’s Arab allies, to embrace a “Look East” foreign policy orientation in pursuit of closer relations with China and other economically vibrant Asian countries. While MbS was in China, Saudi Aramco secured a $10 billion deal for a refining and petrochemical complex in Panjin (Liaoning province), and the kingdom signed 35 economic cooperation accords with Beijing worth $28 billion. Riyadh is increasingly interested in deepening the kingdom’s involvement in China’s Belt and Road Initiative, attracting more Chinese investment, and positioning Saudi Arabia as a hub for Chinese investment in Africa. The visit may have also pushed Riyadh closer to relocating its long-delayed Saudi Aramco IPO to a Hong Kong listing instead of New York or London. While MbS was in Beijing, Saudi and Chinese officials signed an agreement that will include the Chinese language in curricula across the oil-rich Gulf kingdom. This agreement is important in illustrating how the Saudis see China and the future of bilateral relations. Future generations of Saudis who are fluent in Chinese will gravitate toward working in China, not the United States.
US naval chief denounces China and calls for stronger military partnership with Sri Lanka --Addressing the Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) in Washington early this month, US Navy Indo-Pacific Command chief Admiral Philip Davidson denounced Beijing and called for stronger US-Sri Lanka military relations.While Davidson’s report to the SASC mainly centred on the need for an escalation of US aggression against China, he reiterated Washington’s determination to keep Sri Lanka locked into the US geo-strategic agenda.Davidson raised concerns about ethnic tensions between Tamil and Sinhalese, the government’s decision to lease Hambantota Port to China and ongoing political and economic instability but insisted that, “It is in our interests to continue military collaboration and cooperation” with the island nation’s military forces.Sri Lanka, he declared, “remains a significant strategic opportunity in the Indian Ocean, and our military-to-military relationship continues to strengthen.” China, he told SACS, “represents the greatest long-term strategic threat to a free and open Indo-Pacific and to the United States” and accused Beijing of plotting “to expand its form of Communist-Socialist ideology in order to bend, break, and replace the existing rules-based international order.”
Top Chinese officials plagiarised doctoral dissertations - Several senior Chinese officials have apparently copied portions of their university thesis from other authors without citation, an FT analysis has found, highlighting how an “academic arms race” among the political elite may be fuelling plagiarism. China’s politicians are on paper among the world’s best educated: the elite politburo, composed of the 25 most senior Communist party officials, boasts seven doctoral graduates including Xi Jinping, the president, who obtained a law doctorate from Beijing’s Tsinghua University in 2002. But the doctoral dissertation by Chen Quanguo, a politburo member and head of the Communist party in the northwestern Xinjiang region, features dozens of paragraphs identical to earlier works that are not cited. Theses by other politburo members are not accessible on public academic databases. But an FT review of 10 doctoral theses by other Chinese officials that were available online found three cases in which extended passages were copied without citation. The revelation comes amid a public debate in China about the academic qualifications of well-connected people. Last week, Beijing Film Academy revoked a doctorate awarded to Zhai Tianlin, one of the country’s best-known actors, after finding that sections of a paper published while he was a graduate student were copied from other texts without references. “Angry netizens condemned not only the academic fraud, but also the damage done by renowned Chinese universities to fair education opportunities by opening a back door to the rich and powerful,” the state-run Global Times said. Peking University expelled Mr Zhai from a postdoctoral programme following the outcry.
China PMIs Plunge Despite Record Surge In Stimulus - Despite endless jabs of stimulus and the biggest increase in credit on record, China Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs plunged in February.As a reminder, in what may soon be dubbed the Shanghai Accord 2.0, the PBOC announced it had flooded the economy with a gargantuan 4.64 trillion yuan in various new forms of debt which comprise China's Total Social Financing in January, including notably, the "shadow" credit which Beijing had been aggressively cracking down on: an aggressive credit expansion which many took as a tacit confirmation that China was losing the fight with deleveraging.But, after a brief bounce in January, everything tumbled again with the first official gauge of China's manufacturing sector in February (the purchasing managers index) falling further below the 50 mark that signifies contraction, dropping to 49.2, compared with a median estimate of 49.5.The gauge of new export orders slumped to 45.2 from 46.9 in the previous month indicating weakening external demand amid a global economic slowdown. The non-manufacturing PMI, which reflects activity in the construction and services sectors, also fell, to 54.3 compared with 54.7 in January.
Kim Facing Pressure To Restart Missile Tests After Collapse Of Hanoi Talks -- Kim Jong Un met with Vietnamese officials on Friday as speculation mounted about what the collapse of the talks in Hanoi might mean, not only for the detente between the US and North Korea, but for the US's trade deal with Beijing. As analysts parse comments made by senior North Korean officials during a midnight press conference, many fear that Kim might restart his missile tests and revert to his belligerent anti-US rhetoric as the country's 25 million citizens are struggling through its worst economic recession in 20 years. According to Bloomberg, hardliners in his government believe a more warlike posture would improve Kim's negotiating position. But that doesn't necessarily mean a total collapse of the US-North Korea detente is inevitable. "Kim also invested a lot in the summit," said Shin Beomchul, director at the Seoul-based Asan Institute for Policy Studies’ Center for Security and Unification. "Kim’s domestic political risk is also high." The summit’s collapse reinforced the fundamental choice facing North Korea: Negotiate with the U.S. or force another nuclear crisis to improve its bargaining position. While it’s hard to know which path Kim will choose, a hard-line approach risks plunging him back into the diplomatic isolation he experienced before an unprecedented year of summits and red-carpet receptions. Despite a North Korean vice premier's warning that Kim may have "lost the will" to continue negotiating, it's looking increasingly likely that Kim will keep talking, and possibly benefit from some additional help from Beijing. During a press conference on Friday, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman Lu Kang said the UN should consider modifying the North Korean sanctions regime to allow the hermit kingdom some economic relief.United Nations Security Council should consider holding a debate to modify sanctions against country, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang says.Lu responds to question in Beijing briefing Friday about breakdown in nuclear talks between the U.S. and North Korea. President Trump said Thursday that the North had demanded the immediate lifting of all international sanctions - including the six rounds of UN sanctions administered since its 2016 nuclear test in exchange for closing its biggest nuclear facilities under the supervision of US monitors.
By washing the feet of sanitation workers, Narendra Modi merely mocks their plight - On Sunday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi put out a video that showed him washing the feet of five sweepers of the Allahabad municipal corporation. Modi described his gesture as an act of worship. At first glance, the exercise could be viewed as a token of respect. However, considering how and why people get involved in sanitation work in India, it is actually an insidious signal of support for the caste system. In India, individuals become sanitation workers not of their own free will but because they have been born Dalit. No one chooses to clean other people’s faeces of their own accord. Rather than recognise this injustice and work to eradicate it, Modi’s feting of sanitation workers treats their profession as a voluntary choice – not one dictated to Dalits by the iron-clad caste system. The people who work as sanitation workers in India are not heroes but victims. From 2014 to 2016, at least 1,327 sanitation workers died across India as they were sent into sewers without any safety equipment. The deaths are just one aspect of this system of exploitation. The very act of manually cleaning excreta is a degrading job, one that strips away a person’s humanity. The existence of hereditary castes of sanitation workers is a dark blot on India, when the rest of the world, even countries poorer than India, have been able to abolish manual scavenging. There is an old debate over whether professions seen as unclean as per the caste system need to be glorified or the caste system itself abolished. In 1936, in an essay titled The Ideal Bhangi, Mohandas Gandhi had said that Dalits whose hereditary profession was cleaning waste should approach their work as a “sacred duty” – a position repudiated by BR Ambedkar, who pointed out that there was nothing sacred about a caste system that forced Dalits to stick only to certain professions and barring them from others.
Are India and Pakistan on the Verge of a Water War? --With tensions rising between India and Pakistan in the wake of a deadly terrorist attack earlier this month that killed more than 40 Indian police officers in Kashmir, New Delhi has decided to retaliate in part by cutting off some river water that flows downstream to Pakistan. The decision to build a dam on the Ravi River, whose waters are allocated to India by treaty but a portion of which had been allowed to flow through to Pakistan, adds an extra source of conflict between two nuclear-armed neighbors that have repeatedly clashed over the disputed Kashmir territory.To understand the issue better, Foreign Policy spoke with Sunil Amrith, a professor of South Asian studies at Harvard University and the author of Unruly Waters, a look at how water shapes South Asia’s history, politics, and economic development.
- Foreign Policy: India and Pakistan were torn apart at Partition, including critical water resources that had been shared under British India; is this the mother of all transnational water conflicts?
- Sunil Amrith, a professor of South Asian studies at Harvard University (Stephanie Mitchell/Harvard University): It probably is, at least in the suddenness, the arbitrariness, and the brutality with which it emerged. In Asia, many of the other transnational water conflicts were slower to escalate—for example, it wasn’t until the 1980s that neighboring states had the capacity or the ambition to dam and divert the upper reaches of the Himalayan rivers. In terms of the numbers of countries and interests at stake, the Mekong is perhaps the ur-transnational water conflict in Asia, but in the sense of a conflict that was created with the stroke of a pen, the conflict over the Indus delta is quite distinctive.
Pulwama attack: Imran Khan urges Narendra Modi to ‘give peace a chance’, repeats promise of action Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan on Sunday urged his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi to “give peace a chance” in the aftermath of the suicide attack that took place in Pulwama on February 14. Khan reiterated that he would act immediately if India gives “actionable intelligence” on the attack, which was claimed by Pakistan-based Masood Azhar’s Jaish-e-Mohammed. Khan’s remarks came a day after Modi challenged him to stand true to his words and act against terror outfits. Recalling a phone conversation with Khan last year, Modi said in Rajasthan on Saturday: “He told me, ‘Modi ji, I am the son of a Pathan. I speak true and I do true.’ Today, the time has come for him to stand true to his words. I will see whether he stands true to his words or not.” A statement released by Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf on Sunday said the Prime Minister stood by his promise. “In response to Modi’s comments, PM Imran Khan stands by his words that if India gives us actionable intelligence, we will immediately act,” it said. Modi should “give peace a chance”, Khan said in the statement, adding that peace efforts were “derailed” much before the Pulwama attack.
India toughens Kashmir crackdown; 5 dead in battle with militants, more detained (Reuters) - Five people were killed in a gun battle between members of a Pakistani militant group and Indian security forces in disputed Kashmir on Sunday as India intensified a security crackdown, including detaining more than 160 separatists this weekend. Three members of Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) - the Pakistan-based group that claimed a Feb. 14 suicide car bombing that killed 40 Indian paramilitary police - died in the shootout, as did a senior police officer and an Indian army soldier, according to the Indian military and police. Three more soldiers were wounded in the battle in Turigam, a village in South Kashmir’s Kulgam district, defence and police officials said. Two of the dead militants were from India, and one a foreigner, said a senior police officer who asked not to be identified. Indian authorities have killed at least eight JeM militants and detained around 50 militants, sympathizers and their relatives since the bomb attack, which also sparked the roundup of separatists which India says is needed to head off trouble ahead of a general election to be held by May. Most of those rounded up over the last two days were linked to the Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI). “Since JeI has a wider network across Kashmir and they are mobilising anti-India protests, their arrest could help in curbing such protests ahead of elections,” the senior police officer said.
India shelling 'kills civilians' in Pakistan-administered Kashmir - Four people, including two children, have been killed and seven others wounded in an exchange of fire between Indian and Pakistani troops in Pakistan-administered Kashmir's district of Kotli, officials said."So far, four people have been killed in the shelling," Nasrullah Khan, a senior hospital official told Al Jazeera by telephone on Tuesday night.Khan said the dead included a woman and her two children in Nakyal along the Line of Control (LoC), the heavily militarised de facto border between India and Pakistan."An Indian mortar shell hit a house in Nakyal sector along the Line of Control that killed a mother, daughter and son," local disaster management authority official Shariq Tariq told AFP news agency.Another death was reported from Khuiratta town in the semi-autonomous region, Khan said. Meanwhile, Indian media reports said at least five of India's soldiers were also wounded in cross-border firing along the LoC.The civilian deaths in Pakistan-administered Kashmir came as India earlier on Tuesday said it had launched air raids near Balakot, a town 50km from the LoC inside Pakistan's territory.The raids followed a suicide attack earlier this month in India-administered Kashmir, which killed 42 Indian troops when a rebel rammed his explosives-laden car into a paramilitary convoy. It was the deepest cross-border attack launched by India since the last of its three wars with Pakistan in 1971 when the two nations fought over Bangladesh's independence.
Nuclear-Armed India and Pakistan Face Off in Renewed Escalation The biggest escalation between South Asia’s nuclear-armed rivals in decades is testing both of their leaders: One seeking re-election, and the other facing his first real foreign-policy test. With a bitterly contested national election in India just weeks away, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was quick to exploit his military’s air strikes on a terrorist camp inside Pakistan that his government said killed more than 300 people. They came in response to a Feb. 14 suicide car bombing in Kashmir claimed by the Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammed, which killed 40 members of India’s security forces. Speaking on Tuesday to a huge, cheering crowd at an election rally in the state of Rajasthan, Modi twice stated that India was “in safe hands” and declared it a “glorious day,” without explicitly mentioning the attack.Pakistan had its own version of events. After scrambling its jets in response to India’s early-morning incursion across the border, it released photographs of missile remnants it said had fallen on unoccupied territory. Prime Minister Imran Khan’s office said Pakistan would respond “at the time and place of its choosing,” rejecting India’s claim that it had hit a terror camp or inflicted heavy casualties. “Once again the Indian government has resorted to a self-serving, reckless and fictitious claim,” a statement from Khan’s office said. Facing the first major geopolitical challenge of his term, Khan directed the country’s armed forces and the public to “remain prepared for all eventualities.” The question now is how will Pakistan respond. “There will be some form of escalation,” Kamran Bokhari, the director of Strategy and Programs at Center for Global Policy with the University of Ottawa, said by phone. “Pakistan will have to strike back -- I am not saying this will lead to an all out war, but I don’t see that it’s over.”
India Says Many 'Eliminated' in Strike on Jaish Camp, 'Grave Aggression' Says Pakistan - Indian Air Force fighter jets went across to the Line of Control early on Tuesday morning. India’s foreign secretary Vijay Gokhale said in a press briefing at 11:30 am that a terror camp in Pakistan’s Balakot was destroyed, and a large number of terrorists were eliminated.The foreign secretary described the air strike as “non-military” preemptive action, and said it was “absolutely necessary” as the government had “credible intelligence” that the Jaish-e-Mohammad was attempting more suicide terror attacks in various parts of the country and fidayeen jihadis were being trained for this purpose.The terror camp that was destroyed, Gokhale said, was run by Masood Azhar’s brother-in-law, Maulana Yousuf Azhar. It was targeted as it was far away from civilian settlements and the strike would not lead to any civilian casualties. “The existence of such massive training facilities capable to training hundreds of jihadis could not have functioned without knowledge of the Pakistani authorities,” Gokhale said. News of the air strike emerged, ironically, from Pakistan with its military spokesperson claiming earlier in the morning that Indian planes had entered Pakistani airspace, that they had been intercepted and released their “payload early”, without any casualties. In his first public response to the air strikes, aired on state-run channel PTV, Pakistan’s foreign minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi called them a “grave aggression”. “We had been telling the world that India could take such action,” he said. Terming the air strikes a violation of the Line of Control, he said that Pakistan reserves the right to a “suitable” response and “self-defence”.Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan called a meeting of the National Security Council to review the situation at the LoC, Radio Pakistan reported.After the meeting, a government press release said the NSC decided that “Pakistan shall respond at the time and place of its choosing” to India’s “aggression”.
India says hundreds of terrorists killed in strikes on Pakistan, described as worst escalation in decades- India said its fighter jets destroyed a major terrorist camp in Pakistan in an incident described by Islamabad to be a “grave aggression,” and reported to have been the worst escalation between the nuclear-armed rivals since 2001. More than 300 people were killed in the airstrikes at the camp belonging to terrorist group Jaish-e-Mohammed that has trained suicide bombers, according to an Indian official speaking on condition of anonymity. Pakistan denies the attack did any damage or caused casualties. Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale said in New Delhi today that India carried out strikes in Pakistan following an attack in Kashmir earlier this month, and in response to intelligence that indicated Jaish-e-Mohammed was planning more attacks. “In the face of imminent danger, a preemptive strike became absolutely necessary,” Gokhale said. “In this operation, a very large number of JeM terrorists, trainers, senior commanders and groups of jihadis who were being trained for fidayeen action were eliminated.” Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi said at a televised news conference in Islamabad that India had violated the Line of Control. “India has committed aggression against Pakistan today — I will call it a grave aggression,” Qureshi said. “Pakistan reserves the right to respond reasonably,” he said, adding that Prime Minister Imran Khan had called a security briefing.
India’s Attack on Pakistan Sparks Fear of Wider War — Warplanes from India launched an attack on an alleged militant camp Tuesday morning, violating Pakistani airspace in the disputed territory of Kashmir in the latest escalation between the two nuclear powers. The attack carried with it fears of wider war between the two countries.“Armed conflicts once started take their own course without either side being in control to decide where such hostilities will end,” Professor Muzaffar Ahmed told Indian news service IANS.The aerial attack came in the wake of heightened tensions between India and Pakistan, after a Feb. 14 suicide attack on Indian security forces in the Kashmiri town of Pulwama, which killed 42, led to India cutting Pakistan off from a key water source controlled by the former on Feb. 21.The result of the morning’s Indian incursion was unclear at press time. Indian foreign secretary Vijay Gokhale claimed the attack struck a militant training camp and blamed the Pakistani government for allowing the camp to flourish. “The existence of such training facilities, capable of training hundreds of jihadis,” said Gokhale, “could not have functioned without the knowledge of the Pakistani authorities.”Pakistani sources disagreed with the Indian version of events and said the Indian planes had dropped their payload without a target, showing craters near the small town of Balakot as evidence.Payload of hastily escaping Indian aircrafts fell in open. pic.twitter.com/8drYtNGMsm— Maj Gen Asif Ghafoor (@OfficialDGISPR) February 26, 2019 Balakot residents told the Associated Press that they were awakened in the early morning by the bombs but that the raid had no other effect than frightening them.
Pakistan Downs Two Indian Jets, Pilot Arrested, Army Says - Pakistani fighter jets shot down two Indian aircraft on Wednesday, according to a military spokesman, in a dramatic escalation just one day after the Indian Air Force bombed a terrorist training camp inside Pakistan. Pakistan’s air force "shot down two Indian aircraft inside Pakistani airspace," said military spokesman Asif Ghafoor. One of the aircraft fell inside Pakistan-controlled Kashmir, and the other crashed on India’s side of the Line of Control. An Indian pilot ejected over Pakistani territory and was arrested, he said. Pakistan’s air force struck at targets inside Indian-controlled Kashmir on Wednesday, but did so from their own airspace, according to a separate statement from Pakistan’s foreign ministry. "We have no intention of escalation, but are fully prepared to do so if forced into that paradigm. That is why we undertook the action with clear warning and in broad daylight," the Pakistan foreign ministry statement said. The latest reports come a day after Indian Air Force jets bombed a terrorist training camp inside Pakistan. India’s rupee reversed gains, while Pakistan’s benchmark stock index plunged 3 percent at 11:07 a.m. in Karachi.
Pakistan Prime Minister Calls for Talks With India After Jets Shot Down -- Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan called for talks with India after fighter jets from both nations were shot down on Wednesday in the most serious military confrontation between them in decades. "Better sense should prevail," Khan said in an address to the nation. "We should sit down and talk." India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi has yet to comment on the latest escalation. In a media briefing in New Delhi, foreign ministry spokesman Raveesh Kumar said a pilot was "missing in action." By Wednesday evening, the ministry acknowledged the pilot was in Pakistan’s custody and demanded "his immediate and safe return." Modi is just weeks from a hard-fought election, and with nationalist fervor in India running high, he’s under significant pressure to respond. And his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party has been at pains to point out the prime minister’s "strong and decisive leadership." "How much political leverage India gets out of this comes from Pakistan’s response, and what comes out of that response," said Sandeep Shastri, a political science professor and Pro Vice Chancellor at Jain University in Bangalore. Referring to India’s air strikes on Tuesday, he said: "I wouldn’t be surprised if this becomes a centerpiece of the BJP’s election campaign." Pakistan was first to issue a statement today, saying it had shot down two Indian aircraft.
Enraged India Amassing Tanks, 14,000 Bunkers Along Pakistan Border - The potential for major war to break out along the India-Pakistan border continues to build after Pakistan said it shot down Indian fighter jets over the disputed border region of Kashmir. India confirmed only one downed aircraft, and its foreign ministry also said a Pakistani jet was hit in retaliation, going down on the Pakistani side of the border, but what is known for sure is that an Indian pilot is currently in Pakistani military custody after his plane was struck.Amidst international calls for calm led by both the US and China, the fate of the captured Indian Air Force pilot could be key to whether tensions escalate to full-blown war, or return to an uneasy status quo.There is only one pilot under Pakistan Army’s custody. Wing Comd Abhi Nandan is being treated as per norms of military ethics. pic.twitter.com/8IQ5BPhLj2 — Maj Gen Asif Ghafoor (@OfficialDGISPR) February 27, 2019 But it doesn't look good: throughout the early evening on Wednesday there are increasing reports of tanks and heavy artillery being amassed along the border on both sides, specifically near the Pakistani border town of Sialkot, where video appears to confirm major Pakistani Army deployments. Though Pakistani prime minister Imran Khan in a televised address to the nation called for immediate peace talks between the bitter enemies, saying that “better sense should prevail,” Indian leaders and the public were enraged when Pakistan released a video of the detained Indian pilot, filmed identifying himself as Commander Abhinandan Varthaman. When an interrogator asked for more information beyond basic identifying questions, the pilot replied, “I am sorry, sir, that’s all I’m supposed to tell you.” Pakistan's information ministry had also shared footage showing the pilot blindfolded and with blood on his face. India immediately condemned the video parading the pilot on a public broadcast as a "vulgar display of an injured personnel" which "violates all norms of international humanitarian law."
The Daily Fix: Revenge is not a strategic objective – India and Pakistan must reduce tensions -On Tuesday, India was awash with triumphalism after it announced that it had attacked a Jaish-e-Mohammad terror camp on Pakistani soil. But the mood turned to trepidation the next day as Pakistan said it hadcaptured one Indian fighter pilot following combat between jets over Kashmir. If Tuesday’s action made it seem like India had managed to alter the dynamic between the two nuclear-armed South Asian neighbours, the next day made it clear that any such effort would invoke both retaliation and bring with it a genuine human cost. The dangers of the situation becoming even more fraught, with no real advantage to India, cannot be overstated. Revenge is not a military objective and payback cannot be a strategic goal. India has made its point. It has attacked Pakistani territory, proving that the heinous tragedy of Pulwama, in which 40 paramilitary jawans were killed by a suicide bomber, would not go unanswered. New Delhi made sure to explain its actions in careful terminology, aimed at assuring Pakistan and the world that it only sought to strike a terror camp to prevent further attacks and had no intention of targeting the Pakistani state or its people. Pakistan has made its point. It has demonstrated that it has the nerve to retaliate in the case of what it sees as a violation of its sovereignty, and taken down an Indian fighter jet in the process. Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan insisted that escalation is not desirable for either country, and the military has assured India that the captured pilot will be treated in accordance with “military ethics”. Both countries have internal constituencies, particularly news anchors sitting in TV studios, who believe that their nation has lost face and needs retribution. For these people, war itself is an end – to teach the other side a lesson – rather than a means of achieving a more lasting peace or another strategic objective. In this world view, dialogue is equivalent to backing down, rather than one of the many ways, along with military action, to achieve the same goals. India and Pakistan need to ignore these bellicose studio warriors and focus on credible de-escalation rather than hurrying headlong into more conflict with no clarity on what the strategic aims are.
New Delhi and Islamabad Don’t Want Fire and Fury - Two words are on everyone’s mind across India and Pakistan: nuclear weapons. Given the growing military confrontation between the two countries, the phrase should be on the minds of many more people in Washington. As nuclear negotiations get underway in Vietnam between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, a nuclear war could actually break out between New Delhi and Islamabad. The only thing keeping that potential catastrophe in check has been the mostly good faith efforts of the leaders of these two historic enemies. Pakistan reported on Wednesday that it had downed two Indian jet fighters and captured one of the pilots, whom it paraded before TV cameras. India claims it shot down a Pakistani jet and says only one of its planes was downed. Whatever the truth, the bottom line is that two countries with nuclear weapons have come to blows. The air battles were the latest escalation in a tit-for-tat confrontation that has been brewing since a suicide bomber killed at least 42 Indian troops in the disputed territory of Kashmir on Feb. 14. India blamed Kashmiri militants based in—and, it claims, supported by—Pakistan. Wednesday marked the second day in a row that Indian jets had crossed the Line of Control, which divides Indian- and Pakistani-controlled Kashmir. They had not done that in a half-century. It all comes against the backdrop of the Indian election campaign. An external threat is usually good for the incumbent, in this case Prime Minister Narendra Modi, assuming he flexes the appropriate muscles. That’s the bad news. The good news is that the leaders of the two countries—civilian and military—seem to be keeping level heads. So far. For those wondering why the use of nuclear weapons would even be on the table, a little context is valuable. Pakistan’s population is less than 200 million; India’s is 1.3 billion. India’s military is almost four times as large as that of Pakistan. So the odds of Pakistan holding off a full-scale Indian invasion without the use of tactical nuclear weapons are slim to none.
Pakistan To Release Captured Indian Pilot As Goodwill Gesture - Before international intermediaries even had a chance to step in to try to quell the escalating conflict, the Indian military started digging bunkers and deploying tanks along the border with Pakistan as the Hindu nationalist government of Narendra Modi - who is struggling to revive sagging poll numbers in the final weeks before a crucial election - told Islamabad that it would not negotiate for the release of captured pilot Commander Abhinandan Varthaman, who was taken into custody by Pakistani jawans after his plane was shot down Wednesday following an aerial skirmish that led to downed planes on both sides. Fearing not only a military escalation, but also the pressing financial economic concerns as his country seeks another bailout from the IMF, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan said during a joint session of Parliament on Thursday that the captured pilot would be released as a "gesture of goodwill" on Friday. Before Khan's announcement, Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi told Pakistani television station Geo TV on Thursday that "we are willing to return the captured Indian pilot if it leads to de-escalation," per Reuters. The decisions comes as several western powers, including the UK, as well as China, had urged caution in the intensifying conflict. Moscow has also offered to mediate between the two sides. However, Khan said that he was unable to reach Modi when he tried to call his neighboring leader to try and work out a resolution (the Pakistani leader has called for talks, but the Indians have been somewhat less committal). Khan has also said it would be vital that the conflict not "get out of hand" (because nobody wants nuclear war) and added that he didn't believe the Indian people agree with their government's "warmongering."
India and Pakistan issue fresh war threats --After direct clashes between their air forces Wednesday, tensions between India and Pakistan remain on the boil, threatening the eruption of all-out war between South Asia’s two nuclear-armed powers.Addressing a joint session of parliament yesterday, Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan declared that his government had decided to release captured Indian Air Force Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman today as a “peace gesture.” However, Khan warned that “Pakistan will have to retaliate” should the situation “get out of hand.”Varthaman was captured during Wednesday’s clash between Indian and Pakistan Air Force jets, which erupted when Pakistani jets crossed into Indian-administered Kashmir in an apparent attempt to strike Indian military facilities. Although India thwarted the attack, Pakistani forces shot down an Indian MiG-21 and captured its pilot.The commanders of India’s three armed forces held a press conference late yesterday afternoon. While welcoming the release of the wing commander, they vowed to continue military strikes inside Pakistan. “As long as Pakistan continues to harbour terrorists, we will continue to target the terror camps,” declared Major General Surendra Singh Mahal. He denounced Pakistan for targeting Indian military installations, adding: “[I]f they provoke us any further, we are prepared for exigencies.”Pakistan’s military spokesman, Major General Asif Ghafoor, was no less belligerent, warning earlier in the day: “Pakistan Army troops are at high alert along the Line of Control (LoC) to thwart any Indian aggression.” The LoC separates Indian- and Pakistan-controlled Kashmir. These threats demonstrate that the stand-off will not be resolved by Islamabad releasing a pilot and New Delhi welcoming the gesture.
Video Shows Moment India-Pakistan Jets Clashed In Aerial Battle; India Denounces F-16 Use - On the same day Pakistan handed over captured Indian pilot, Commander Abhinandan Varthaman, to the Indian military after his MiG-21 jet was shot down previously this week in the first significant aerial combat engagement between the two countries in nearly half a century, local television stations are circulating purported footage of the air battle as it unfolded. Journalists in India say the video confirms the Indian Air Force also shot down a Pakistani F-16 jet, something not highly publicized given the focus on the detained and since released Indian pilot. The question of whether Pakistan deployed F-16s in Wednesday's aerial skirmish has remained a deeply contentious one as sporadic artillery and gun fire has continued to erupt along the border Friday. Pakistan has rejected the accusations of India's armed services chiefs that it used American-supplied F-16's along the Line of Control (LoC) area, which would put Pakistan in violation of the terms of the sale agreement with the United States. The Indian military says it has proof after it recovered the F-16 that was allegedly shot down by Abhinandan Varthaman's IAF MiG 21 before his own plane was shot down. That proof, Air Vice Marshal Kapoor said, comes in the form of a recovered missile used by the Pakistani jet: "Parts of AMRAAM, air to air missile which is carried only on the Pakistani F-16s was recovered east of Rajouri within the Indian territory," he said. India now plans to share the evidence in its possession with the United States to demonstrate Pakistan has breached its F-16 purchase agreements.
Nuclear-armed India, Pakistan on brink of all-out war - The danger of all-out war in Asia continued to rise yesterday, after the Indian air force bombed targets deep inside Pakistan on Tuesday. Yesterday, as fighting mounted, Pakistan announced that it had carried out a strike in India. Amid heavy shelling across the Line of Control (LoC) between Pakistani- and Indian-administered Kashmir, the two countries’ air forces clashed and lost several fighter jets. The Pakistani Foreign Ministry released a statement claiming that its jets had struck “nonmilitary targets” in India from within Pakistani airspace. It added that the strike was “not a retaliation” for the Indian strike, though Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan has pledged that Pakistan will retaliate, and that Pakistan is “fully prepared” for further escalation. Pakistan’s military spokesman Major General Asif Ghafoor claimed two Indian MiG-21 fighters “crossed into Pakistani territory and were shot down,” and that the two pilots were captured. Indian Foreign Ministry spokesman Raveesh Kumar claimed India shot down one F-16 jet belonging to the Pakistan Air Force (PAF), after Pakistan targeted military installations on the Indian side of Kashmir with airstrikes. The airman was identified as wing commander Abhinandan Varthaman, and Pakistani authorities released a picture of him in detention. In a sign that they expect the conflict to continue to escalate, both countries announced the closure of airspace and the suspension of commercial flights. Pakistan reportedly closed its airspace altogether and indefinitely closed three airports in cities near the Indian border. All flights from major airports, including Karachi, Peshawar and Lahore are suspended indefinitely. India has suspended flights from airports in Kashmir and the state of Punjab until further notice. Washington, which has sought for over a decade to develop India as a diplomatic and military ally against China, is pouring fuel on the fire, tacitly backing the Indian attack. This poses immense dangers to humanity. Should fighting continue to escalate to a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan, hundreds of millions would die, and such a conflict could easily draw the two countries’ main allies, the United States and China, into a global conflagration.
India and Pakistan sliding toward a catastrophic war - India and Pakistan, South Asia’s rival nuclear-armed states, are teetering on the brink of a full-scale military conflict. Early Tuesday morning, Indian warplanes attacked Pakistan for the first time since the 1971 Indo-Pakistani War. Striking deep inside Pakistan, they destroyed what New Delhi claims was the principal “terror base” of the Jaish-e-Mohammed, an Islamist group involved in the separatist insurgency in Indian-held Kashmir. After a brief period of confusion, as it assessed the damage and strategic implications of the Indian attack, Islamabad vowed a strong military response. Pakistan, it declared, would not allow India to “normalize” illegal US or Israeli-style attacks inside Pakistan, whether mounted in the name of retaliation for, or preemptive strikes against, Kashmiri insurgent attacks. The next day, Indian and Pakistani war planes engaged in a dogfight over the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir, after Islamabad launched what New Delhi claims was an unsuccessful strike on Indian military installations. Both sides are claiming to have shot down at least one enemy plane in Wednesday’s encounter, with Islamabad presenting a captured Indian pilot as proof of its claim. The US, China, Russia and other world powers are now publicly scrambling to avert the eruption of all-out war—a war they concede could quickly spiral into a catastrophic nuclear exchange, even were it to be “confined” to the subcontinent. Yet even as they counsel restraint and make offers of mediation, the great powers—themselves locked in, to use the Pentagon’s term, “a new era of strategic competition”—are trying to use the South Asian war crisis to advance their own geostrategic interests. Washington, in particular, has used the standoff to further its efforts to diplomatically and militarily encircle China. Adding to the explosiveness of the situation are the interconnected socio-economic and political crises buffeting the two states, headed respectively by Narendra Modi and his Hindu supremacist BJP and the Islamic populist Imran Khan. Elected Pakistan’s Prime Minister just seven months ago on promises of jobs, development, and increased social spending, Khan has seen his popularity plummet as his government implements IMF-demanded austerity. Modi and his BJP are shamelessly using the war crisis to muster votes for India’s multi-stage April-May general election.
The Monster Pell Has Been Caged At Last - Caitlin Johnstone - After being convicted of one count of sexual penetration of a child under 16 and four counts of committing an indecent act with, or in the presence of, a child, Cardinal George Pell spent the first of what may be many nights in jail. While he lay there in his jail cell, my darling uncle’s body lay in a morgue.Pell’s meteoric rise to the top of the Roman Catholic hierarchy was due in part to his ruthless management of rape and sexual abuse victims. He devised what came to be known as the Melbourne Response, which kept damage to the Church at a minimum by capping the payouts to $50,000 and later $75,000 and requiring victims to sign a silencing agreement. He saved the Church untold millions in compensation and incalculable damages in reputation. The Vatican took notice, and it was only a decade or so before he was tapped to manage the entire financial affairs of the Vatican under the lofty title of “Prefect of the Secretariat for the Economy”, making him the third most powerful priest, only two steps down from the Pope.Meanwhile, down at the other end of this heady world of high finance, my uncle was being handed out a mere $3,000 by the Church. Why? As a pay-off for being raped when he was just a little boy by serial pedophile Father Daniel Hourigan. For this paltry sum he had to sign a strict confidentiality agreement, and from that day on until the day he died last week – via an on-again, off-again battle with drugs, alcohol, depression and paranoia – he was convinced he was being watched and monitored by the Church. Maybe he was, who knows, but they almost certainly planted the idea that he was going to be observed carefully, which is in many ways as torturous as the act. Even if he had have put his head up above the trench and taken them on, he would have faced a monumental task. When Pell moved to Sydney to be Archbishop, he oversaw the development of a cunning and lopsided legal strategy known as the “Ellis Defence.” A victim with the surname Ellis attempted to sue the Church for sexual abuse as a child, but because of the tricksy configuration of its legal status as an unincorporated association, the victim could not sue because the priest was dead. Until very recently, the courts could do nothing but throw up their hands. He had no one to sue.
Protesters Defiant in Sudan Amid Fears Crackdown Could Lead to Military Rule — Anti-government protesters returned to the streets of Khartoum and staged demonstrations in hospitals and universities overnight and on Tuesday in defiance of sweeping new emergency powers announced by Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir. Under the new powers, imposed by presidential decree and announced by Bashir on Monday night, people arrested for participating in unlicensed demonstrations and public gatherings would face 10 years in prison with special courts established to prosecute the protesters. But protest organisers, opposition parties and activists on social media immediately called on their supporters to defy the new laws, and hundreds of people responded by rallying in Khartoum late on Monday, calling for Bashir to step down. On Tuesday, doctors and students organised sit-ins at dozens of hospitals and universities in Khartoum and elsewhere around the country, drawing what activists described as a “brutal response” by security forces in some locations. Nagla Atta, an opposition activist, said that protests had taken place at several universities in the capital, including Ahfad, Medical Science and Technology and Sudan International. She told Middle East Eye that police and security forces had fired tear gas inside the universities for a third consecutive day. “Using the power of the emergency laws, the security forces and police cracked down aggressively on the students, firing tear gas, and raiding the campuses,” she said.
Venezuela in crisis: All the latest updates Al Jazeera - Venezuela has plunged into a major political crisis amid a growing row over President Nicolas Maduro's future as the country's leader. Maduro started a second term on January 10, following a widely boycotted election last year that many foreign governments refused to recognise. On January 23, Juan Guaido, leader of the opposition-controlled National Assembly, declared himself interim president. Shortly after Guaido took an oath swearing himself in, US President Donald Trump publicly recognised him as the country's leader. Maduro accused Guaido of staging a coup and ordered his arrest. Here are all the latest updates as of Monday, February 25:
- Brazil wants non-military pressure on Venezuela. Brazil's vice president, retired general Hamilton Mourao, said on Monday that under no circumstances would his country allow the United States to intervene militarily in Venezuela from Brazilian territory.
- Pence on Venezuela: 'all options are on the table'. Vice President Mike Pence reiterated the US position on Venezuela Monday, insisting that a military intervention to force President Nicolas Maduro from power has not been ruled out.
- US asks UNSC to meet on Venezuela: diplomats. The United States has asked the United Nations Security Council to meet to discuss the situation in Venezuela on Tuesday, said diplomats after Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's troops repelled foreign aid convoys at the weekend.
- US sending aid for Venezuela migrant crisis. Vice President Mike Pence says the United States is sending another $56m to neighbours of Venezuela to help them cope with migrants fleeing that nation's deepening crisis.
Maduro cuts ties with Colombia as protests rock Venezuela - Venezuela's embattled President Nicolas Maduro has severed diplomatic ties with Colombia amid escalating tension over an opposition-led effort to bring foreign aid across the countries' mutual border. Maduro on Saturday said Colombian diplomats had been ordered to leave Venezuela, which is in the grip of a major economic crisis, within the next 24 hours. His announcement took place against a backdrop of deadly border clashes which saw two people killed in unrest near Brazil and at least 23 soldiers switch loyalties to opposition leader Juan Guaido amid an increasingly unpredictable and unruly fight for power in the oil-rich South American nation. Reacting to Maduro's decision, Colombia's Foreign Minister Carlos Holmes Trujillo said Bogota did not recognise the "legitimacy" of the Venezuelan leader but would withdraw its diplomatic staff from Caracas as soon as possible in order to protect their "life and integrity". The diplomatic spat came as protests against Maduro's rule convulsed Venezuelan border towns and the capital, Caracas, with security forces ordered to seal the country's entry and exit points in a bid to prevent food and medical supplies from crossing government blockades. The clashes occurred after opposition leader Guaido, who most Western nations recognise as the country's legitimate leader, gave a personal send off to an aid caravan from the Colombian border city of Cucuta. Guaido briefly boarded one of a dozen trucks carrying the US-backed aid before they set off towards the border, where they were pushed back by Venezuelan security forces. Colombia's migration agency said their contents would be unloaded at the Simon Bolivar bridge, which connects Colombia with neighbouring Venezuela, and transported by "human chains" that had formed on the road. But that plan did not work. Two of the trucks were set on fire by Venezuelan security personnel as they crossed into Venezuela, two remaining trucks retreated into Columbia.
Guaido Faces 30-Year Jail Term For Breaking Venezuela Travel Ban -- Self-Proclaimed Venezuelan "interim president" Juan Guaido faces a potential 30-year jail term for violating a travel ban placed on him by the Maduro government. The ban, imposed earlier by the Venezuelan Supreme Court, was broken last Friday as Guaido secretly crossed the border from Venezuela into Colombia, from where he's since organized attempts for US humanitarian aid shipments to cross bridges into Venzuela, and after meeting with US Vice President Mike Pence and regional leaders in what was essentially a regime change strategy session. "He can leave and come back and will have to see the face of justice because justice had prohibited him from him leaving the country… He has to respect the laws," Maduro told ABC News in a new interview published Tuesday. In a follow-up question concerning whether Maduro would have the opposition leaders arrested, the president said that only a court can make this decision. Despite the court imposed travel ban, the AP previously reported that Guaido may have initially crossed the border on a Colombian air force helicopter Friday evening in order to attend the Live Aid-inspired show in Cucuta, Colombia, sponsored by British billionaire Richard Branson. According to a prior AP report: It’s not clear how Guaido sneaked into Colombia — in one video circulating on social media he appears running across a bridge near the Colombian town of Puerto Santander, while in another he could be seen boarding a helicopter belonging to the Colombian air force.
Venezuela Set For More False Flags... US Puppet Guaido Better Watch His Back - The much-hyped “aid weekend” involving a US Trojan Horse fell at the first hurdle. Venezuelan government forces averted the provocation intended by US aid convoys from Colombia and Brazil. Something shocking is “needed” in order to jolt world opinion into acquiescing to Washington’s criminal agenda of “all options.” In the fiendish mind of American imperialism, it is also prudent to consider “all options” as meaning more than military aggression. The foulest moves. The torching of trucks purportedly ferrying US food and medicines across the border from Colombia was patently a planned provocation. Credible video footage and witnesses attested to the arson being carried out by supporters of the US-backed opposition figure Juan Guaido. The vehicles never even made it to the crossing point where Venezuelan national guards were deployed. Yet, at the Lima Group summit held – no coincidence – in the Colombian capital, Bogota on Monday, Guaido and US Vice President Mike Pence brazenly spouted lies that the “sadistic” Venezuelan military under President Nicolas Maduro had caused the destruction of vital aid supplies intended for “suffering people.” It seems obvious the whole scenario of delivering US aid into Venezuela from neighboring countries was really intended as a pretext for military intervention by Washington. The government in Caracas had warned of such a contingency in advance, as had Russia, which is allied to President Maduro’s administration. Moscow’s experience in Syria has no doubt given a lot of valuable insights into the American playbook of using false flags for justifying military aggression. The timing of the Lima Group summit – 12 Latin American states along with the US and Canada – was meant to capitalize on the false-flag incident over aid, as well as other deadly clashes at the weekend that resulted in dozens of casualties. However, the provocation did not go to plan, despite Pence and Guaido’s grandstanding assertions.
Venezuela Orders PDVSA Offices Relocate To Moscow; Putin Affirms Support To Friend Maduro - A top Venezuelan official has announced that President Nicolas Maduro has ordered national oil and gas company PDVSA to close its current European headquarters in Lisbon, Portugal and move it to Moscow. The announcement came from Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez during a press conference standing alongside Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Moscow on Friday. "President Nicolas Maduro instructed the Lisbon branch of PDVSA to close this office and relocate the office to Moscow," Rodriguez said, according to Russia's TASS news agency. It appears the relocation is already underway, and is part of the framework of "broadening cooperation" with Russian energy giants Rosneft and Gazprom, according to the statement. The Venezuelan vice president said, "This is done in line with our plans to expand technical cooperation in the oil production area with Rosneft, with Gazprom. The moment now is the most suitable to do so. We are changing the format of our relations." And she added, “It’s the perfect time, as we are reshaping our relations.”As part of the press briefing, Russian FM Lavrov conveyed President Putin's words of support and solidarity to his "friend" President Maduro in a further clear sign that Moscow has dedicated itself to helping Venezuela's state oil company weather the storm of US economic war and sanctions. Lavrov explained in the press conference, “Russia will further help the Venezuelan government to solve social and economic problems, which includes lending support via legitimate humanitarian aid.” This after what's been widely acknowledged as failed US-led coup efforts over the past weeks in support of opposition leader Juan Gaido, who has tried to rally support for greater external "pro-democracy" intervention against the Caracas government. As part of her remarks Rodriguez slammed what she called a US "operation" of "sabotage" against a "legal government" spearheaded by White House envoy to Venezuela Elliott Abrams.
Cuba urges condemnation of potential U.S. military strike in Venezuela - Xinhua | English.news.cn: (Xinhua) -- Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel Monday called on the international community to denounce potential U.S. military intervention in Venezuela. "Let's raise our voices against U.S. intervention in Venezuela," Diaz-Canel tweeted. He called for support for an initiative by the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) to declare Latin America and the Caribbean a "Zone of Peace." Diaz-Canel made the appeal amid stepped up rhetoric against Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro from the so-called Lima Group, a hemispheric bloc of countries mostly aligned with Washington, which is backing the Venezuelan opposition's push to unseat Maduro. The group met in Bogota earlier in the day to renew its call for Maduro to hand over the reins to Juan Guaido, the opposition leader and self-proclaimed interim president. U.S. Vice President Mike Pence attended the gathering and announced new economic and diplomatic sanctions against Venezuelan officials loyal to Maduro.
Cuba sees high turnout at polls for constitutional referendum (Reuters) - Cubans flocked to the polls on Sunday in a vote expected to approve a new constitution that institutes modest economic and social changes while maintaining the one-party socialist system. Under a bright sun and the watchful gaze of uniformed grammar school children guarding ballot boxes, 81 percent of the 8.7 million electorate had cast votes by 5 p.m., an hour before polls closed, according to the national electoral commission. Results are due to be announced on Monday. No incidents were reported at polling stations, though there were unconfirmed social media accounts of police blocking small groups of dissidents from protesting in eastern Cuba and Havana. Debate over the constitution has dominated the country’s politics for months, even as it struggles with economic stagnation and as the deepening crisis in Venezuela brings its ally into the crosshairs of U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration. White House national security adviser John Bolton ripped the referendum on Twitter as “another ploy of the Cuban regime to cover up its repression and tyranny.”
Canada In Recession- GDP Unexpectedly Drops For 2nd Month In A Row - Canadian GDP just contracted for the second month in a row, leaving the headline Canada GDP up just 0.4% SAAR in 4Q, according to Statistics Canada (dramatically below the estimate of +1.0%). The headline quarterly change misses even lowest of economist estimates. And on a YoY basis.. Under the hood it was just as ugly, with household consumption growth slowing further to 0.7% QoQ (weakest since 2015), investment and housing declining sharply, and helped only by an inventories accumulation (inventories added 1.53 percentage points to growth in 4Q).Business gross fixed capital formation dropped 9.6% in 4Q, from -8.4% in previous quarter:
- Non-residential investment falls 10.9%, largest decline since 2016
- Residential structures fall 14.7%, biggest decline since 2009
Final domestic demand tumbled 1.5% in 4Q, from -0.5% in previous quarter Worse still, first half of 2018 growth revised down to 2.0% from 2.3%. But apart from that - everything is awesome and you should be buying Canadian stocks!!
President of Ukraine Says Trump Doing “Excellent” Job Handling Putin – Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko told Fox News on Friday that he approves of the way President Trump is handling Russian President Vladimir Putin. “I think that this administration does an excellent, a great job. This is not an assumption,” said Poroshenko. “I have a feeling that this U.S. administration clearly understands the possible danger of Putin.” Poroshenko spoke out against Putin’s hostilities toward his country and said Putin’s only goal was to re-establish the glory of the “Russian Empire.” “He wants to renew, to restore the Russian empire, the Soviet Union and he does not have any red line for reaching these results,” Poroshenko told co-host Bill Hemmer. –Fox News Wednesday marked the five-year anniversary of a popular uprising as anti-government protesters advanced on Ukraine’s parliament calling for the resignation of pro-Russia President Viktor Yanukovych, who refused to sign a trade agreement with the EU. 77 activists and 17 police officers died following shootouts in Kiev, while over 500 were injured. Poroshenko, when asked if it was possible for Trump to have a working relationship with Putin, said “I think it’s possible to speak with Putin only with the position of strength,” adding that it would require a strong global coalition and sanctions. “With this situation, I am confident that only strong U.S., the global leadership of the United States and the leadership of President Trump can keep the world safe.”
"Consequences for NATO": Germany Rebuffs UK Call To Back Off Saudi Arms Freeze - Germany is feeling the pressure from western allies over its weapons exports freeze in the wake of the Saudi killing of Jamal Khashoggi, a freeze first announced in November, which included plans to reject any future export licences to Riyadh, but not previously approved deals. German allies like the UK have lately implored the German government to soften its stance, noting the potential broader economic impact on Europe. British foreign minister Jeremy Hunt, currently in Berlin to discuss the terms of Brexit, reportedly wrote to the German foreign minister, Heiko Maas, in a private letter first revealed by Der Spiegel that UK defense companies would be hindered in contractual obligations related to Eurofighter Typhoon and the Tornado fighter jet delivery, namely to supply parts affected by the German arms freeze. Hunt told Maas in the letter published in German press: “I am very concerned about the impact of the German government’s decision on the British and European defence industry and the consequences for Europe’s ability to fulfil its Nato commitments.” This follows comments by German chancellor Angela Merkel at the past weekend's Munich Security Conference acknowledging the need for "common export controls guidelines" across Europe. She said during a question-and-answer session after her speech at the conference:
Thousands march across France for the Gilets Jaunes’ “Act XV” Tens of thousands of Gilets Jaunes (Yellow Vest) protesters celebrated the 15th week of the movement with marches in Paris and all around France and a festive picnic at the Chambord Castle in the Loire, central France. There were more than 46,000 Gilets Jaunes protesting across France, including 5,800 in Paris, according to the French Interior ministry. Last week, they were 41,000, including 3,000 in Paris. In Paris, the march started on the Champs-Elysees with planned stops at Opera, the Louvre museum and the Trocadero. Several thousands of protesters attended the march in Paris for the 15th day of national action since the creation of the movement, in November 2018 Protests were also organised in several French cities, with hundreds marching in Bordeaux, Clermont-Ferrand, Rouen, Rennes, Pau. In Toulouse, Gilets Jaunes protesters blocked an Amazon warehouse on the outskirts of town, preventing deliveries. Gilets Jaunes also organised a picnic on the lawns of the Chambord castle, some 180 kms south of Paris, which was built in 1519 as the royal residence of French king François the First. They were around 1,200, according to local police. With music and food stalls, the atmosphere was pacific and familial at Chambord, where some protesters played football on the lawn, the AFP reported. Priscillia Ludovsky, one of the movement's most recognisable faces, attended the picnic. She told the AFP that the movement's absence of vertical organisation is both "its strength and its weakness". To ensure that the Chambord event went smoothly, a hundred protesters wearing "white vests" acted as coordinators with the authorities and the castle administration.
The Yellow Vest Phenomenon and the Radical Right - So-called ‘yellow vest’ movements are now active across the globe. Beginning in France on 17 November 2018, the ‘yellow vests’ (named after the fluorescent safety vests French motorists wear) protested against France’s rising fuel prices introduced by the Macron government before morphing into a much broader protest on issues such as the high cost of living and income inequality. Dissatisfied people across the world are now donning the yellow jackets and congregating to protest. Inspired by the French model, the majority of these groups taking to the streets are aiming their discontent at their respective governments on what are traditionally left-wing issues. The largest ‘yellow vest’ protest outside France was held in Taipei on 19 December 2018 with over 10,000 residents calling for fairer tax laws. In Israel, the complaint appears to be targeted on governmental corruption and tax hikes. In Iraq, more employment opportunities and better services are the main reasons for discontent. In the UK, left-wing Labour activists have adopted the attire to demand an increase in public spending and a Labour government. While in Italy, ‘yellow vests’ have marched in Rome to protest against the new tough anti-migrant lawimplemented by Italy’s radical right Five Star government, making it easier to expel new arrivals. However, the ‘yellow vests’ are not exclusively left-wing movements. The radical right has also capitalised on the unrest. Dressed in yellow, thousands of activists are demanding that their causes be heard. This blog post examines ‘yellow vest’ radical right activity in Canada, Germany and the UK. Active across the country, the movement in Canada appears to have been appropriated by far-right extremists. Extreme racist, anti-Muslim and anti-immigrant chanting and placard waving are now commonplace in these marches. In fact, far right hate peddling biker gangs are not only taking part in the rallies but also recruiting new members from them. In Germany, far-right organisations have found a new uniform with the yellow vest. Three such movements – Pegida (a movement ‘against the Islamization of the West’), Zukunft Heimat (Future Homeland) and Merkel-muss-weg-Mittwoch (a highly-active anti-Merkel group) – organised a ‘gathering in yellow vests’ outside of the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin on 1 December 2018 to denounce the UN Covenant ‘for safe, orderly and regular migration’ approved by the Bundestag the day before. Alternative for Germany (AfD), the third largest party in the federal parliament, is also attempting to capitalise on ‘yellow vest’ demonstrations. Lastly, at the helm of the UK’s radical right ‘yellow vest’ movement appears to be James Goddard. Goddard is an Islamophobic self-professed supporter of the well-known anti-Islam campaigner Tommy Robinson – some label Goddard a ‘wannabe Tommy Robinson’. In fact, Goddard’s racism led to the suspension of his Twitter account. His fundraising activities have also been blocked by crowdfunding sites.
Catholic Church destroyed secret files on paedophile priests, cardinal admits - At a child protection summit in Rome called by Pope Francis came a stunning admission: the global Catholic Church deliberately destroyed documents on priests who abused children. Cardinal Reinhard Marx, the Archbishop of Munich, told 190 church leaders gathered in Rome that procedures to investigate and punish paedophile priests had often been ignored."Files that could have documented the terrible deeds and named those responsible were destroyed, or not even created," he said.Australia's royal commission found "secrecy prevailed" in the Catholic Church, and documents on abuse allegations were often not kept.The cardinal's comments infuriated many survivors of abuse whose perpetrators were moved from parish to parish across the globe.Peter Isely, from Ending Clergy Abuse, questioned whether cardinals had referred bishops who covered up crimes to civil authorities. "They have destroyed criminal evidence of children that were raped. Cardinal Marx knows who it is," he said
Japan seeking big concessions from Britain in trade talks - Japan is seeking tougher concessions from Britain in trade talks than it secured from the EU, while negotiations between London and Tokyo are also being slowed by the looming risk of no-deal Brexit. Japanese trade negotiators are confident they can extract better terms, the Financial Times reported, in a sign of the mounting difficulties facing UK officials as they attempt to line up post-Brexit trade deals around the world. Japan and the EU began trading under a new free trade agreement this month, an arrangement that will be unavailable to the UK after Brexit. While officials from the UK and Japan are seeking to agree a bilateral deal, it will not be in place before 29 March when Britain is scheduled to leave the EU. The UK’s trade with Japan will also revert to World Trade Organization tariffs in the case of a no-deal Brexit. The Department for International Trade (DIT) told business leaders this week that time was running out for Britain to roll-over trade deals with about 60 countries the EU has free trade arrangements with, which the UK benefits from until it leaves the bloc. Barring a handful of small and medium-sized countries, including Chile and the Faroe Islands, the majority of deals are expected to miss the deadline. One attendee at the meeting said the lack of clarity about the UK’s trading relationship with the EU after Brexit had held up progress, and that the Japan-EU deal included a “most-favoured nation” clause that meant Tokyo could not offer anything better on trade in services to Britain than it had given to the EU. Other countries unlikely to agree deals before 29 March include major UK trading partners such as Turkey, South Korea and Canada, they said. Japan is a significant market for the UK as it is among the largest trading partners for Britain outside the EU. Britain has a trade surplus with Japan, exporting about £12.5bn in goods and services a year while importing about £11.5bn.
Brexit: bring out your dead - With thirty-four days to go before we are scheduled to leave the European Union, it is difficult to know how we should be reacting to the prospect of an event which could presage a disaster – or not.One possible response might be for the media to be putting together a comprehensive assessment of how the nation might be affected by a no-deal which looks more likely by the day. Maybe they are keeping their powder dry – they'll certainly have plenty of time later and it would be difficult to keep up the momentum for over five weeks. There is only so much one can write, for so long. For the moment, the media seem to have given up on Brexit as they focus on the domestic political agenda. This is a sort of comfort food for journalists who are otherwise totally out of their depth, leaving us assailed with tedious accounts of cabinet splits, backlashes and rows. Where attention is being given to Brexit, the main topic seems to be whether an extension to the Article 50 negotiating period will be sought, this being the preferred method of stopping a no-deal Brexit. But missing from this aspect of the soap opera is the recognition that any extension must be approved unanimously by the EU-27. Nevertheless, there are also the contrarians who reject the idea of taking a no-deal "off the table", one of these being John Penrose, minister of state for Northern Ireland. He has been given space in The Sunday Telegraph to hold forth on the matter, arguing that to remove the no-deal option wouldn't just massively weaken the prime minister’s negotiating position. It could, says Penrose, torpedo Brexit completely, leaving us in a "Hotel California" Brexit, where we'd checked out but could never leave. One is never quite sure with Tory politicians as to whether they are quite as stupid as they sound or are trying on some devious ploy, the nature of which is clear only to them.
Brexit: May’s Endgame -- Yves Smith - With Brexit barely more than a month away, May has made her latest move, which is to drive Parliament’s vote as close to the wire as possible, while refusing to consider revoking the Article 50 notice, or its more socially acceptable cousin, a second referendum.1 May has moved Parliament’s “meaningful vote” back yet again, now to March 12, a mere 17 days before Brexit.This is consistent with Lambert’s Thesis of Brexit, which is a corollary of “Everything is like CalPERS.”. It is: “At every juncture, the UK has made the worst possible decision.” Readers are welcome to debate in comments; perhaps we’ll elevate it to a Rule of Brexit. But the immediate implication is that this gambit increases the risk of a crash-out, which was already dangerously high. Even before this stunt, the normally measured Michel Barnier put the odds at over 50%.May’s decision to outrage Parliament yet again by having no shame about playing brinksmanship could lead to more party defections and Cabinet resignations, but as we’ll discuss below, it is unlikely to derail May’s plans. As Richard North put it: Thus, MPs can continue to behave like sulky teenagers, or wind themselves up into an almighty strop and start instructing Mrs May to take certain actions. But in the final analysis, the MPs will discover that their much-vaunted “sovereignty” does not reach outside their building. As the Queen’s first minister in what is a constitutional monarchy, the prime minister can sit on her hands and do exactly nothing. And the outcome of that is that we drop out of the European Union on 29 March without a deal. In the meantime, May is making yet another ritual trip to Brussels to talk about the Irish backstop, which is again going to get nowhere. One has to wonder if she is actually a master actress, albeit with a very narrow range, and stages these visits as theater to give a veneer of legitimacy for her kicking the can dangerously close to a lava flow.But the problem is even if May is fully aware that she is engaging in Potemkin negotiations, she hasn’t let her counterparties in on the joke. That doesn’t endear her to them. And interpersonal dynamics matter. Recall that there was a point during the Greek bailout negotiations where EU leaders had worked into the night and talks had completely broken down, which meant a default. Hollande literally pursued people down corridors and talked them back into returning to the table.Even though May has not admitted to it yet, under almost any scenario, she is going to have to go cap in hand to the EU Council at their next meeting on March 212-22. Even if the MPs hold their noses and approve her deal, she will still need an extension to pass legislation.And if Parliament again rejects her deal, it appears her intent is again to seek an extension to try to beat Parliament into line or persist in her fantasy that the EU will relent. The Torygraph reports that May is considering an extension of two months if her March 12 vote fails to placate her ministers. However, May is still sticking firmly to her “no delay” line.
Brexit: this historically dysfunctional process - The soap opera has taken over big time, with the legacy media lapping up the detail in an orgy of self-satisfied glee. Never mind the issue: this is Westminster at its most trivial, giving endless entertainment to the bubble and leaving the rest of the nation indifferent at a level which would make an ice age the epitome of glowing warmth.Still in Sharm el Sheik, the prime minister has been fending off inane questions with inane answers, the exchange being perfectly reasonable to anyone who wants to fill in time (and space) between adverts, but of little use to all those millions of people and thousands of businesses who actually need to know what is going to happen in five weeks. As it stands, we have to be content with Mrs May's assurances that a deal is "within our grasp" and "a delay means delay" which won't solve anything. "It just delays the point at which you come to that decision", she says, thus demonstrating that we are not – contrary to the assertions of Dutch prime minister Rutte – sleepwalking to anywhere. Even if, according to European Council president Donald Tusk, delay is a "rational decision", given that the folks back in Westminster can't decide anything except when to put in their expenses claims, Mrs May was "clear" that she will be able to avoid a no-deal scenario and bring home a deal that the MPs could approve, in between filling in their expenses claims. Meanwhile, the Mail is insisting that as many as 15 ministers have threatened to quit the government in "an extraordinary mass revolt" during what is described as a secret meeting.Never mind that it can't have been that secret otherwise the paper wouldn't know anything about it. In this not-so-secret secret meeting, we are told that "23 dissidents" met last night to discuss how to stop a no-deal scenario, with three ministers saying they were prepared to back a Commons move by rebel MPs to force the prime minister to seek a Brexit delay if her deal is voted down. And, although she hasn't said anything publicly, and is currently telling everyone that a delay is a delay and won't solve anything, the Mail is "revealing" that Mrs May is now ready to rule out a no-deal Brexit after all.
Brexit: what happens the next day if there is no deal? - - You’ll have to request a green card from your insurer if driving to Europe after 29 March. The official advice from the UK government is: “From 29 March 2019, in the event that there is no EU exit deal … drivers of UK-registered vehicles will need to carry a motor insurance green card when driving in the EU and EEA.”Note that a green card (and they do have to be on green paper) typically lasts only 90 days, and if your insurance renewal comes up while you’re abroad, you will need one for each cover period. The card applies to the vehicle, not the driver.Direct Line insurance says: “In the event of a no-deal Brexit, we have plans to ensure customers are provided with a green card if they drive in Europe on or after 29 March. Customers will need to contact us at least two weeks in advance of when they are due to travel.” In Ireland, where 30,000 drivers commute across the border daily, and where shoppers from Dublin frequently head to Belfast and vice versa, the green cards issued are likely to be valid for one year.For years, Brits travelling, studying and working in Europe have relied on the European Health Insurance Card (Ehic) that entitled the holder to state-provided medical treatment if they fell ill or had an accident in an EU/EEA country.Two weeks ago, the UK government issued its latest advice on healthcare when travelling abroad, warning that if the UK leaves with no deal, our Ehics will no longer be valid.It has advised anyone travelling on or after 29 March to any of the EU countries as well as Switzerland, Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein, to buy travel insurance to cover healthcare “just as you would if visiting a non-EU country”.
Hub in Belgium to keep NHS supplied in event of no-deal Brexit - The government has created a logistics hub in Belgium where vital medical supplies will be stockpiled to stop the NHS running short of equipment if there is a no-deal Brexit. Stents, implants and other products needed to ensure that patient care is not disrupted will be stored at the hub, the exact location of which has not been disclosed. The Department of Health and Social Care has also arranged to get NHS supplies – including drugs – into Britain using seven new ferry routes, to bypass the chaos that is widely expected in and around Dover in the event of no deal. The Department for Transport has agreed to pay two companies, Brittany Ferries and the Danish firm DFDS, £88.8m to transport products from the hub across the Channel over the next six months. Suppliers, including pharmaceutical companies which will store their products elsewhere, will be given priority access to the ferries. The shortest route, Cherbourg in France to Poole in Dorset, will take four and a half hours while the longest, from Cuxhaven in Germany to Immingham in Lincolnshire, will be 16 hours. The other routes will be Le Havre to Portsmouth, Roscoff to Plymouth, Caen to Plymouth, Vlaardingen in the Netherlands to Immingham and Vlaardingen to Felixstowe. The hub will act as a warehouse for the wide range of supplies that hospitals, GP clinics and pharmacies will need in the event of no deal. In a written ministerial statement on Tuesday, the health minister Stephen Hammond sought to reassure MPs that the in-depth nature of government planning should mean medical supplies would not be not affected. The extensive preparations also include extra warehouse capacity in Britain to store medical supplies, drug firms stockpiling an extra six weeks of products, and daily flights from Maastricht in the Netherlands to Birmingham to bring in items that the NHS needs. Hammond said: “While we never give guarantees, we are confident that if everyone – including suppliers, freight companies, international partners and the health and care system – does what they need to do, the supply of medicines and medical products should be uninterrupted in the event of exiting the EU without a deal. “There is cross-government agreement that all medicines and medical products will be prioritised on these alternative routes to ensure the flow of all these products may continue unimpeded.”
Tony Blair backs the Independent Group as he says ‘truly mind-boggling’ Labour has been taken by populists - Ex-prime minister Tony Blair has praised the politics of the new Independent Group of MPs, as he declared the Labour Party he once led is “in thrall” to left-wing populists. Mr Blair, who took the party to three election wins, said its current state is now “truly mind-boggling”, bedevilled by antisemitism and characterised by its “savage denunciation” of anyone who speaks against it. In contrast, he cited the breakaway group of ex-Labour MPs as part of a “fightback”, calling on other supporters of moderate politics to “embrace the spirit of insurgency”, adding “the struggle can be won”. Mr Blair’s call to arms comes soon after nine MPs quit Labour, with more said to be considering following and deputy leader Tom Watson creating a new social democrat counterweight to Mr Corbyn’s left wing within the parliamentary party. The Independent Group, which now also has three former Conservative MPs, had its first formal meeting on Monday having laid claim to the centre ground of British politics.Speaking in Washington DC, Mr Blair lamented the demise of moderate politics, saying the word “centrist” is now used as an insult. After pointing out how the Conservatives are “morphing into something nationalistic”, he turned his fire on Jeremy Corbyn’s party saying: “The Labour Party’s membership is in thrall to a populism of the left. “The running sore of the past two years has been the row over antisemitism with Jewish Labour MPs coming under sustained attack, a truly mind-boggling circumstance for a supposedly progressive political party to find itself in. “Both manifestations of populism exult in savage denunciation of those who disagree especially within their own ranks.”
UK’s May Weighs Plan to Delay Brexit as Labour Endorses Second Referendum – As Theresa May scrambles to avoid driving the UK off the ‘no deal’ Brexit cliff, rumblings that surfaced over the weekend about her possibly endorsing a “Brexit Day” delay have reportedly morphed into actions. According to Bloomberg, May will call a cabinet meeting for 9:30 am on Tuesday to discuss endorsing a plan to delay Brexit.After the meeting, May would update Parliament around 12:30 pm GMT about the results of the discussion. If there’s sufficient support for a delay, the government would call a vote on Wednesday night.May’s reversal on an idea that she has long resisted is likely a ploy to stop some 20 pro-remain Tories from rebelling and joining with Labour MPs to back an amendment to demand a delay. However, by endorsing a delay, May also risks provoking a destabilizing backlash from members of the eurosceptic ERG.To be sure, regardless of the vote, the EU27 would still need to sign off on a delay. The pound rallied 0.5% to climb back above $1.31 as the concessions from May and Corbyn revived hopes that Brexit might be put off…perhaps indefinitely.Regardless of the result, if May goes ahead with the meeting, it would represent a major capitulation from May, who has steadfastly insisted for two years now that the UK would leave the EU on time.Still reeling from the defections of nine of his MPs, embattled Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn said Monday that he would support a second referendum on whether the UK should abandon the European Union, offering a concession to Europhile MPs in his own party has a seeks to quell an outright rebellion.Corbyn said Labour would table an amendment this week calling for another referendum (though the likelihood of it being brought to a vote remains unclear, being up to the discretion of House Speaker John Bercow). While the prospect of Parliament authorizing another vote remains unlikely, Corbyn’s support could embolden pro-European MPs in both parties to push harder for a delay of “Brexit Day”, something that Prime Minister Theresa May is desperately trying to avoid.Jeremy Corbyn: Labour will support Brexit referendum Jeremy Corbyn says Labour will back another EU referendum after his alternative Brexit plan was again defeated in the Commons. But the Labour leader said he will also continue to push for "other available options" including a general election. John McDonnell said the party would table an amendment for a referendum when the "meaningful vote" on Theresa May's deal returns to Parliament. The shadow chancellor also told ITV's Peston show he would vote for remain. It came as MPs voted to endorse Theresa May's Brexit strategy - but only after she made a series of concessions. The PM also faced a Brexiteer rebellion, after 20 Tory MPs voted against proposals, backed by the government, to delay the UK's 29 March departure date if there is a no-deal scenario. But Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg, who was not among the 20 Tory rebels, although he did abstain in the vote, offered an olive branch to Mrs May, as she continues to seek concessions from the EU on the controversial Irish backstop clause. Please upgrade your browser to view this interactive How did my MP vote on 27 February?Enter a postcode, or the name or constituency of your MP Seat vacant The chairman of the European Research Group of Brexiteer Tories said he disagreed with those who were demanding changes to the legal text of the withdrawal agreement and would accept an appendix to it.
Theresa May Weighs Plan To Delay Brexit As Labour Endorses Second Referendum - As Theresa May scrambles to avoid driving the UK off the 'no deal' Brexit cliff, rumblings that surfaced over the weekend about her possibly endorsing a "Brexit Day" delay have reportedly morphed into actions. According to Bloomberg, May will call a cabinet meeting for 9:30 am on Tuesday to discuss endorsing a plan to delay Brexit. After the meeting, May would update Parliament around 12:30 pm GMT about the results of the discussion. If there's sufficient support for a delay, the government would call a vote on Wednesday night. May's reversal on an idea that she has long resisted is likely a ploy to stop some 20 pro-remain Tories from rebelling and joining with Labour MPs to back an amendment to demand a delay. However, by endorsing a delay, May also risks provoking a destabilizing backlash from members of the eurosceptic ERG. To be sure, regardless of the vote, the EU27 would still need to sign off on a delay. The pound rallied 0.5% to climb back above $1.31 as the concessions from May and Corbyn revived hopes that Brexit might be put off...perhaps indefinitely. Regardless of the result, if May goes ahead with the meeting, it would represent a major capitulation from May, who has steadfastly insisted for two years now that the UK would leave the EU on time.
Brexit: MPs Sink to a New Collective Low of Incompetent Acquiescence - naked capitalism - Yves here. I’m glad to see someone call out Parliament after having seen May successfully play it again and again. How many time has she moved back the date of the required Meaningful Vote? Ignored Cabinet resignations and even an unheard of censure?Let us understand all that happened: May made some pretty promises as to what she’ll do in March. The postcard version: BREAKING: PM makes three promises: 1. Meaningful vote on deal by 12th March 2. If deal fails, next day MPs vote on whether to support No Deal3. If they don’t want No Deal, then MPs can vote on 14th March to extend Article 50— Paul Brand (@PaulBrandITV) February 26, 2019Her Withdrawal Agreement being voted down again by large margins is a near certainty.But, pray tell, what does “extend Article 50” mean? That is unlikely to be well specified; in fact, since the Government is pretty certain to draft any March 14 motion, that is also a near certainty if things get that far.Recall that the EU Council meeting at which the approval of any extension is expected to take place falls on March 21-22. May could make that fail, either by design or continuing in her May-ness. And the perverse beauty of that would be that no one would be able to tell the difference!For instance, new polls say that popular support for an extension falls off dramatically if it were to go longer than 3 months. A shorter deal is easier to sell since it doesn’t raise hairy questions of the extension impinging on the seating of a new European Parliament on July 2.But even though the comments of a lot of EU leaders indicate they grudgingly accept that they probably should give the UK an extension if it asks, at the same time, quite a few express skepticism that a few months will make any difference. They are concerned the UK will try this stunt again when it runs out of rope. (Note I see the idea of a 21 month extension as a non-starter, and appetite for it on the UK and EU side seems low. Plus I can’t imagine businesses being left in limbo so long. This may have been a ploy by Tusk rather than a serious idea, but either way, it looks not well thought out). That means even if the UK asks for a “short” extension, and May was earlier signaling mere weeks, there will be some who will want to impose conditions. This means the EU leaders would need to negotiate among themselves and then with the UK. That takes time and there is hardly any left. Of course, the EU specializes in brinksmanship, but recent crises have been financial crises, and with a central bank at your side, you can fudge timing, which is not on here.
Independent Group table second referendum amendment to ‘break Brexit gridlock‘ - MPs from the newly-formed Independent Group has tabled an amendment seeking to pave the way for a second Brexit referendum. The move comes after Labour's announcement the party would back attempts in the Commons for a fresh public vote, if it fails to force MPs to adopt its own Brexit plans in a series of votes on Wednesday evening in the chamber. The fresh bid has the support of MPs in the Scottish National Party, the Liberal Democrats, and Plaid Cymru - increasing the chances of it being selected by the Commons Speaker on Wednesday morning. If picked by John Bercow - and subsequently passed by MPs - the amendment will instruct Theresa May to table a motion in the Commons for debate before 8 March which sets out the steps necessary for preparing a public vote on whether to proceed with Brexit on terms agreed by parliament, or Remain a member of the EU. Chris Leslie, a former Labour MP who joined the new grouping last week, said: "At this eleventh hour, it's vital that preparations take place for a People's Vote. This cross-party amendment would require the prime minister to take the steps needed so the public could take control and break through the Brexit gridlock."
Eurosceptic Leader Backs Off Key Brexit Demand As May Opens Door To Delay - Now that European leaders, including Angela Merkel, have signaled that they would be open to a "Brexit Day" extension, it appears Theresa May's gambit - that is, her decision to accede to her critics and open the door to votes on a delay and the possibility of a 'no deal' Brexit - might be paying off. To wit, as Reuters reported Wednesday, the leader of the Eurosceptic ERG signaled that he would drop his demand that the Irish Backstop be removed from the exit deal altogether, a major concession which suggests that the eurosceptics have been sufficiently rattled by the possibility that Brexit could be delayed or - now that Labour is officially backing a second referendum - canceled altogether. ERG leader Jacob Rees-Mogg said he could "live" with the backstop, so long as assurances are made that it won't be permanent, and that a "short-term" exit date be affixed to the deal. “I can live with the de facto removal of the backstop ... I mean that if there is a clear date that says the backstop ends, and that is in the text of the treaty or equivalent of the text of the treaty,” Rees-Mogg told BBC radio.The concession offers a hint at the ERG's thinking as the group, which played a major role in defeating the first iteration of May's deal, mulls what to do now that a delayed Brexit is a real risk.To be sure, a vote on May's "Plan B" Brexit deal, which is set for March 12, is still widely expected to fail, barring any new concessions from Europe. Europe has ruled out a fixed end date for the backstop, but the fact that the ERG is seriously considering backing down from its demands should be enough to convince May that maybe this new approach is working.
German Europe minister says UK must propose something new to justify any Brexit delay- Germany's Minister of State for Europe Michael Roth during his press conference with British Minister of State for Europe and the Americas Alan Duncan and Polish Minister of Foreign Affairs Jacek Czaputowicz at the Western Balkans Summit in London, Britain, July 9, 2018. Matt Dunham/Pool via REUTERS BERLIN (Reuters) - Britain could delay its withdrawal from the European Union once, for a short time but must put something substantially new on the table to make the case for a postponement, Germany’s European Affairs Minister Michael Roth said on Wednesday. “You can delay once, a single time, we are talking about a few weeks or few months, otherwise Britain would have to participate in the European elections,” Roth told German ZDF television. “For us it is important that something substantially new would be put on the table to justify a delay. Then we would all have to vote on it ... No one wants to punish the Britons, if we can achieve something with a delay, we would be the last ones to stand in the way,” he added.
Northern Ireland proof that extending deadlines won’t help to clinch deal, claims Foster Arlene Foster has warned that the experience of Northern Ireland proves extending deadlines does nothing to encourage a deal, after the Prime Minister promised MPs a vote on delaying Brexit. The DUP leader yesterday held Brexit talks in London with Mrs May, who earlier accepted for the first time that the UK may not leave the EU on March 29. In a statement to the House of Commons the Prime Minister offered MPs a chance to vote to delay Brexit if her deal is rejected again next month. But Mrs May stressed that she didn't want a delay and still hopes to obtain assurances from Brussels which will lead to Parliament approving her withdrawal agreement. Mrs Foster said: "Experience in Northern Ireland has shown that extending deadlines does nothing to encourage a deal. A no-deal outcome can be avoided and it can be agreed long before the 29th March. "The EU have it in their hands to avoid such an outcome. They know exactly what is required to achieve a deal which Parliament can support. It's time for Dublin and Brussels to be in a deal-making mode." Mrs Foster said the Prime Minister must deliver on her previous commitment to Parliament to seek legally binding changes to the withdrawal agreement.
Public backs Brexit extension — but only if it’s short— U.K. voters support a delay to Brexit, but only if it lasts no longer than three months, according to an exclusive POLITICO-Hanbury poll published ahead of a crucial showdown in the British parliament over the next steps in the Brexit process.While voters remain skeptical about the intention behind any delay, overall they support pushing back Brexit day (with 47 percent in favor to 26 percent opposed) if it is needed to continue the exit negotiations or to ratify the deal. But support for an extension lasting any longer than three months drops dramatically, according to the survey of 2,006 adults.In parliament Tuesday, Theresa May opened the door to a potential Brexit delay. She said she would request a "short, time-limited extension" of the Article 50 negotiating period from the EU if the deal she negotiates with Brussels is rejected again by the House of Commons in a vote before March 12, and if MPs reject a no-deal scenario. But the prime minister said a delay is not her preferred option and she is working to achieve a deal that parliament could back.While her deal is still unpopular in the country, there are tentative signs that people are coming round to it, according to the poll, which was conducted between February 22 and 25. Overall, 30 percent said it should be approved by MPs, while 37 percent said it should not. But this is an improvement from when the agreement was struck with Brussels in November, when just 28 percent wanted MPs to approve the deal and 45 percent did not. However, if legally binding changes to the backstop — or a permanent customs union — are agreed with Brussels, public support for the deal sharply increases. No-deal as an option, meanwhile, is falling in popularity based on the last two POLITICO-Hanbury polls.
Leave campaign to sue if Brexit is delayed - Leave Means Leave, the cross party campaign group for Brexit, says it will mount legal action against the government to ensure European Elections are held in the UK on 23 May, if Article 50 is extended. The organisation has appointed the city law firm Wedlake Bell as well as counsel from Field Court Chambers to prepare this claim. Speaking in Parliament today, Theresa May said MPs will get a vote on 14 March on extending Article 50 if the Commons has not passed a deal by then and if MPs vote on 13 March to reject no deal. She added that any extension would be short, and ‘almost certainly … a one-off’. The Prime Minister added it would be ‘extremely difficult’ to extend article 50 beyond the end of June, because that would require the UK to take part in the European elections. However, Leave Means Leave are convinced of the likelihood of further delays and have written confirmation from the Chief Executive of the Electoral Commission that it is preparing and will be ready for the European Parliament election on 23 May. Many Leave supporters are concerned that senior politicians are looking for ways to avoid holding such elections, for fear of the result..
Brussels is set to offer Theresa May a backstop ‘out’ in a last-ditch bid to help save her Brexit deal BRUSSELS is set to offer Theresa May a “get out of jail card” from the backstop in a last ditch bid to help her deal pass Parliament. Eurocrats are working up new assurances that will include promises on tech solutions and details on how the UK can leave the Irish border fix. They said it will be made clear the backstop must be replaced by a trade deal but without putting a specific time limit on it - a major red line for Dublin. The changes would set certain criteria for the new relationship which, if met, would mean all or part of the border fix is no longer required. They will be outlined in a new, legally-binding text that would build upon the review clause already in the Withdrawal Agreement. Attorney General Geoffrey Cox met with EU lawyers in Brussels yesterday as sources said the bloc will “stretch as far as possible” to get a deal. A Government spokesman said the teams worked on “legally binding assurances that are required to guarantee that the backstop cannot endure indefinitely”. Last night officials warned there are now just 10 days left to find a compromise that the PM can put to Parliament on March 12. The bloc is ready to offer the UK “trade facilitation that’s unprecedented with any part of the world” as part of a revamped package. A diplomatic source told The Sun this would be paired with a “get out of jail card” from the backstop that allows Mr Cox to change his legal advice on it
Brexit- damage limitation - With precious little hard news and, as I observed yesterday, much speculation on the back of anonymous sources, the noise level is as high as it has ever been. The inevitable corollary is that the intelligence content in media reports is about as low as it can get.Essentially, you can pick any narrative you prefer, and there will be a legacy media source to support it. And, when reports conflict, it stands to reason that they cannot all be right. Some have to be wrong and it is even possible that most of them are – although it has to be said that the volume of reports is way down from a week or so ago. Something with a ring of truth though, carried by the Guardian and duplicated by others, is the report from Michel Barnier that there has been "no progress" in the talks between EU and UK officials. However, given that Barnier and others have been consistently stating that negotiations on the Withdrawal Agreement will not be re-opened, this hardly comes as a surprise. Summing up the state of play, one anonymous EU diplomat laments that, "The UK side keeps on insisting on the same two things and we keep on explaining why it won't happen".Nevertheless, attorney general Geoffrey Cox, accompanied by Stephen Barclay – who could remain anonymous even with his name tattooed on his forehead - are expected back in Brussels on Tuesday for another round of non-talks. This makes one of the main games in town a process of guessing whether the parties can cobble together a form of words impressive enough to convey the idea that there have been concessions, without actually committing to anything legally binding. The temperature of this can be expected to rise in the coming week, as speculation on MPs' intentions mount in anticipation of the Brexit vote scheduled for a week on Tuesday. Yet, with the number of factions vying for attention in the Westminster village, and the fragmentation of sentiment, one suspects that the outcome of the next vote will not be known until the tellers parade in front of the speaker.
Helicopter parents: the real reason British teenagers are so unhappy - Children growing up in the UK are said to be some of the unhappiest in the industrialised world. The UK now has the highest rates of self harm in Europe. And the NSPCC’s ChildLine Annual Review lists it as one of the top reasons why children contact the charity. Children’s mental health has becomes one of British society’s most pressing issues. A recent report from the Prince’s Trust highlights how increasing numbers of children and young people are unhappy with their lives, sometimes with tragic consequences.This is a generation of young people that has been labelled as “snowflakes” – unable to handle stress and more prone to taking offence. They are also said to have less psychological resilience than previous generations. And are thought to be too emotionally vulnerable to cope with views that challenge their own. Social media likely plays a part in all this. Studies show nearly three quarters of 12 to 15-year-olds in the UK have a social media profile and spend an average of 19 hours a week online. After all, this is the Facebook generation – and never before have children grown up with such a daily bombardment of images, products and messages. But there is also another factor at play – a factor much closer to home. In our new book Taming Childhood? we put forward the argument that children and young people may indeed have less resilience than previous generations, but argue this is because they have fewer opportunities to develop it. The reason for this is that childhood has become tame.
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