week ending May 11

All Eyes on the Fed - Last week the US Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate unchanged and lowered the interest rate on excess reserves. We review economists’ recent views on the monetary policy conduct and priorities of the United States’ central bank system. The Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) held its third meeting of 2019 last week (April 30th and May 1st). Given the very recent change in monetary policy stance, there was no great anticipation of interest rate changes. However, despite how predictable the conclusions of the FOMC meeting were, the blogosphere still took it as an opportunity to come forth with insights both on the future of the Fed’s monetary policy instruments and on its governance.A first line of opinions assesses the aftermath of the Fed’s latest dovish turn. Some are sceptical:  Tim Duy from FedWatch argues that, while last week’s monetary policy meeting did not yield any fundamental changes, the Fed may soon reverse this path and go back to a hawkish approach. This scenario is not crystal clear – rate hikes are not foreseeable given forecasts of inflation alone, and Fed officials such as Charles Evans and Eric Rosengreen have been vocal about policy strategies allowing for above-target inflation.  Still, Duy lists three scenarios under which a policy reversal – a ‘Dove Trap’, as he calls it – could take place. First, if growth, labour-market and inflation numbers outperform expectations; second, if unemployment numbers are lower than anticipated; third, and last, if the Fed deems that we are too late in the current economic cycle to experiment with persistently above-target inflation, leaving changes in the Fed’s policy strategy for the next cycle.  Others, such as Christophe Donay from Pictet, take a more upbeat s tance. Donay points out that the Fed’s dovish turn and the promise “to be patient on further rate hikes” has helped markets in the beginning of the year. Signals that the end of balance-sheet reductions is near have calmed market concerns about the prospect of tightening financial conditions. Donay wonders whether this turn also means a turn of the page in central-bank policymaking – the low interest rates and the end of the economic cycle will force central banks to be creative in the event of a downturn. Indeed, some have already started questioning the instruments that the Federal Reserve has at its disposal to manage the economy. While the Fed has so far mostly relied on the federal funds rate, Bill Dudley, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, writes that this target has “outlived its usefulness”. As a result of quantitative easing, he explains, banks have accumulated reserves that in turn reduce their need of borrowing or lending federal funds. As a consequence, the interest rate on reserves “has become the Fed’s most effective tool of monetary policy, putting a floor under the interest rates at which banks are willing to lend”. Dropping the federal funds target and focusing solely on the interest rate paid on reserves, Dudley argues,“would have no meaningful effect on the Fed’s monetary policy stance” and would simplify policies by “eliminating the need for technical adjustments to the interest rate on reserves to ensure that the federal funds rate stays within its range”. Currently the Fed operates monetary policy in what is called a “floor system”, whereby the target interest rate is equal or very close to the interest rate on excess reserves (IOER). David Beckworth, from MacroMusings, argues that this could soon enough turn into a “corridor system”, where the overnight interest rate is above the IOER. This transition from floor to corridor could be caused by a large shift in the demand for reserves, moving the Fed off “the perfectly elastic or ‘flat’ portion of the bank reserve demand curve”. The shift could happen with or without a significant reduction in the supply of reserves. “The Fed, in other words, could have a relatively large balance sheet and still end up in a corridor operating system.”

Fed Launches Rate-Peg-Instead-Of-QE Trial Balloon For Next Crisis - Wall Street hype artists and assorted QE mongers would be deeply disappointed.This came packaged into the middle of a speech by Federal Reserve Board Governor Lael Brainard, on “How Does Monetary Policy Affect Your Community?” It was under the subheading, “Some Issues to Explore.” And it would be a huge shift in how the next crisis will be handled.During the next crisis when short-term interest rates are already at zero – for the Fed, that is still the lower bound – the Fed might not do the type of QE it did during and after the Financial Crisis when it set a target to buy a fixed amount of securities every month.Instead, during the next crisis, when 0% short-term interest rates are no longer enough to stimulate the economy, the Fed might announce a target for slightly longer-dated interest rates, such as one-year rates, Brainard said. And it would buy just enough securities with those maturities, to bring the one-year yield down to the target range. And if more stimulus is needed, it might target two-year rates, she said: Under this policy, the Federal Reserve would stand ready to use its balance sheet to hit the targeted interest rate, but unlike the asset purchases that were undertaken in the recent recession, there would be no specific commitments with regard to purchases of Treasury securities.“Such an approach could help communicate  publicly how long the Federal Reserve is planning to keep rates low,” she added.

Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Close to 2% in April --The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning: According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (2.4% annualized rate) in April. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index also rose 0.2% (2.0% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report.Earlier today, the BLS reported that the seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban consumers rose 0.3% (3.9% annualized rate) in April. The CPI less food and energy rose 0.1% (1.7% annualized rate) on a seasonally adjusted basis.  Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details for April here. Motor fuel increased at a 93.3% annualized rate in April.This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 2.8%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 2.3%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 2.1%. Core PCE is for March and increased 1.6% year-over-year. On a monthly basis, median CPI was at 2.4% annualized, trimmed-mean CPI was at 2.0% annualized, and core CPI was at 1.7% annualized. Using these measures, inflation was about the same in April as in March on a year-over-year basis. Overall, these measures are at or above the Fed's 2% target (Core PCE is below 2%).

 America's Defense Budget Is Bigger Than You Think --Each year, Congress approves hundreds of billions of dollars for the US defense budget... but the real number exceeds $1 trillion. In its latest budget request, the Trump administration is asking for a near-record $750 billion for the Pentagon and related defense activities—an astonishing figure by any measure. If passed by Congress, it will be one of the largest military budgets in American history, topping peak levels reached during the Korean and Vietnam wars. And keep one thing in mind: That $750 billion represents only part of the actual annual cost of our national security state.There are at least 10 separate pots of money dedicated to fighting wars, preparing for yet more wars, and dealing with the consequences of wars already fought. So the next time a president, a general, a secretary of defense, or a hawkish member of Congress insists that the US military is woefully underfunded, think twice. A careful look at US defense expenditures offers a healthy corrective to such wildly inaccurate claims.Now, let’s take a brief dollar-by-dollar tour of the US national security state of 2019, tallying the sums as we go, and see just where we finally land (or perhaps the word should be “soar”), financially speaking.

Ending The Pentagon's Long Con -- Donald Trump is a con man. Think of Trump University or a juicy Trump steak or can’t-lose casinos (that never won). But as president, one crew he hasn't conned is the Pentagon. Quite the opposite, they've conned him because they've been at the game a lot longer and lie (in Trump-speak) in far biglier ways.  People condemn President Trump for his incessant lying and his con games -- and rightly so. But few Americans condemn the Pentagon and the rest of the national security state, even though we’ve been the victims of their long con for decades now. As it happens, from the beginning of the Cold War to late last night, they’ve remained remarkably skilled at exaggerating the threats the U.S. faces and, believe me, that represents the longest con of all. It’s kept the military-industrial complex humming along, thanks to countless trillions of taxpayer dollars, while attempts to focus a spotlight on that scam have been largely discredited or ignored. One thing should have, but hasn’t, cut through all the lies: the grimly downbeat results of America’s actual wars. War by its nature tells harsh truths -- in this case, that the U.S. military is anything but “the finest fighting force that the world has ever known.” Why? Because of its almost unblemished record of losing, or at least never winning, the wars it engages in. Consider the disasters that make up its record from Vietnam in the 1960s and 1970s to, in the twenty-first century, the Iraq War that began with the invasion of 2003 and the nearly 18-year debacle in Afghanistan -- and that’s just to start down a list. You could easily add Korea (a 70-year stalemate/truce that remains troublesome to this day), a disastrous eight-year-old intervention in Libya, a quarter century in (and out and in) Somalia, and the devastating U.S.-backed Saudi war in Yemen, among so many other failed interventions. In short, the U.S. spends staggering sums annually, essentially stolen from a domestic economy and infrastructure that’s fraying at the seams, on what still passes for “defense.” The result: botched wars in distant lands that have little, if anything, to do with true defense, but which the Pentagon uses to justify yet more funding, often in the name of “rebuilding” a “depleted” military.  . And worse yet, like America’s wars, the Pentagon’s long con shows no sign of ending. Eat your heart out, Donald Trump!

Trump Nominates Military-Industrial Complex to Lead Pentagon -  — In a move critics warned could further deepen the ties between the sprawling and immensely profitable private weapons industry and the U.S. government, the White House announced Thursday that President Donald Trump will nominate former Boeing executive Patrick Shanahan to head the Pentagon.  Shanahan has been serving as acting secretary of defense since the departure of former Pentagon chief Jim Mattis in January.“When Patrick Shanahan was selected by Trump for a Pentagon post,” The Nation‘s John Nichols tweetedThursday in response to Shanahan’s nomination, “the Seattle Times wrote: ‘Shanahan, 54, has no military or political experience. He is, however, familiar with defense procurement from the business side.’ Very, very familiar.” In a column last year, Nichols described Shanahan—who worked at Boeing for 31 years before becoming Trump’s deputy defense secretary—as “the embodiment of the military-industrial complex.” “His main claim to fame in the deputy post was his ardent advocacy for Trump’s ‘space force’ scheme,” Nichols wrote. “So what experience does Shanahan have? He is, literally and figuratively, the embodiment of the military-industrial complex about which former President Dwight Eisenhower warned Americans at the close of his presidency in 1961.”

Analysts Confirm North Korea Launched First Ballistic Missile Since 2017 - Analysts have studied a report from North Korea's Korean Central News Agency, which was accompanied by a few images, and determined that the "projectile" fired by North Korea Saturday morning, was, in fact, a short-range ballistic missile. In addition to images released by KCNA, independent analysts managed to capture images of the launch.Our friends at @planetlabs got a shot of a North Korean short-range ballistic missile just after launch at 10:54 am local time. @DaveSchmerler found it. pic.twitter.com/aIZ0Dcc1u1— Jeffrey Lewis (@ArmsControlWonk) May 5, 2019Lucky shot! Captured by @planetlabs Planetscope satellite at 0154 UTC (1054 local) on Saturday as it overflew Wonsan, North Korea. pic.twitter.com/g5QgVI8hJf— Martyn Williams (@martyn_williams) May 5, 2019But before Korea hawks in the US start accusing Kim Jong Un of playing Washington with his pursuit of denuclearization, Bloomberg reports that, while the test may have violated United Nations sanctions on North Korea, it appears to have stopped short of breaking Kim's promise to Trump to refrain from testing long-range missiles that could threaten the US. This would suggest that the launch was merely a sign of frustration and a warning by the North. In a Saturday tweet, Trump brushed off reports about the missile launch, insisting that Kim wouldn't do anything to jeopardize talks. It appears he was correct in that assessment.

Trump Brushes Off Missile-Test Reports, Says Kim "Would Do Nothing To Interfere" With Denuclearization Talks --Refusing to believe that Kim Jong Un would break his promise to hold off on hostilities at least until another round of talks with the US could be scheduled, President Trump brushed off reports about a short-range missile test in North Korea, tweeting that "I believe that Kim Jong Un fully realizes the great economic potential of North Korea, & will do nothing to interfere or end it. He also knows that I am with him & does not want to break his promise to me."  Trump concluded - in what appeared to be an attempt to reassure Kim before he does something even more drastic - by adding that a deal "will happen." The tweet, posted while Trump was in a motorcade to the Trump National Golf Club in Virginia, was the president’s first response to the news that the North had fired an unidentified short-range missile in the direction of the East Sea Saturday morning, local time.  Anything in this very interesting world is possible, but I believe that Kim Jong Un fully realizes the great economic potential of North Korea, & will do nothing to interfere or end it. He also knows that I am with him & does not want to break his promise to me. Deal will happen! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 4, 2019The incident marks the first missile launch since November 28, 2017 when the North launched an ICBM which traveled 600 miles in 50 minutes until crashing into the Sea of Japan. South Korean and US authorities "are analyzing details of the missile," added the JCS. However, South Korean intelligence later changed their description of the launch, and stopped referring to "missiles" and instead started referring to "projectiles."  Last month, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un gave the United States "till the end of this year" before he walks away from negotiations over his country's missile program, suggesting that the Trump administration needs to be more flexible. And this latest launch, according to Bloomberg, is the clearest sign of frustration yet at the lack of progress in talks between the North and the US. Analysts said the launch appeared to be more of a  'message' than a deliberate provocation.

  US seizes North Korean ship - The Trump administration on Thursday escalated its provocations against North Korea, reigniting a potential flashpoint for war in East Asia just as the US stepped up threats of military intervention from Venezuela to Iran and the South China Sea.President Donald Trump immediately ruled out returning to talks with North Korea after Kim Jong Un’s regime carried out a second suspected short-range missile test in less than a week. “I don’t think they’re ready to negotiate,” Trump said from the White House on Thursday. “We’re looking at it very seriously right now. Nobody’s happy about it,” he added, referring to the latest North Korean missile test and indicating that retaliatory action was under consideration.Trump said “the relationship continues,” alluding to his two summits with Kim, at which he sought to push North Korea to break its ties with China and line up behind the US trade war and military offensive against Beijing. Just before Trump’s remarks, however, his administration took the confrontation with North Korea to a new level. The US Justice Department announced that it had seized North Korea’s second largest cargo ship, alleging violations of the crippling US and UN sanctions imposed on the country.In a statement, senior Justice Department officials called the seizure the first of its kind and said it was part of the US campaign to ramp up the pressure against the North Korean government. “This sanctions-busting ship is now out of service,” said Assistant Attorney General John Demers, the head of the Justice Department’s National Security Division. “We are deeply committed to the role the Justice Department plays in applying maximum pressure to the North Korean regime to cease its belligerence.” The Wise Honest is North Korea’s second largest merchant ship and is capable of carrying tens of thousands of tons of cargo. Prosecutors said the ship was used to haul heavy machinery into North Korea, including 412,584 kilograms of “steel plate.”The ship is being taken to American Samoa, according to Geoffrey Berman, the US attorney for the Southern District of New York, who spoke to reporters from the Justice Department on Thursday. Berman said the ship was “recently taken into custody,” but declined to provide an exact date for the action. The ship was originally stopped by Indonesian maritime authorities in April 2018, and a US judge last July issued a warrant authorising its seizure.

U.S. deploying carrier strike group to send 'message' to Iran - The United States is sending a carrier strike group and a bomber task force to the Middle East to send a "clear and unmistakable message" to Iran, President Donald Trump's national security adviser announced Sunday night. While John Bolton said the U.S. wasn't seeking to go to war with Iran, "we are fully prepared to respond to any attack, whether by proxy, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or regular Iranian forces." He added: "Any attack on United States interests or on those of our allies will be met with unrelenting force."  Bolton said the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group and an unspecified bomber task force were being sent to U.S. Central Command's region of responsibility, which covers the Middle East. According to the Navy, the strike group left Naval Station Norfolk, Virginia, on April 1 on a regularly scheduled deployment. The strike group consists of the Abraham Lincoln, a Nimitz-class aircraft carrier; the USS Leyte Gulf, a Ticonderoga-class guided missile cruiser; Carrier Air Wing Seven; and destroyers from Destroyer Squadron Two. In a brief statement, Bolton didn't say what specific actions or provocations the United States was responding to. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also declined to cite specifics, saying Sunday night that the move was unrelated to the deadly violence over the weekend in the Gaza Strip, where Iran is widely reported to fund Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

US Deploys Four B-52 Bombers to Deter “Possible Attack” by Iran — The deployment of American military assets to the Middle East continues to ramp up following national security advisor John Bolton’s Sunday night statements warning the US is prepared to send “a clear and unmistakable message to the Iranian regime”.Citing “possible attack by Iran” against US troops in the region, four B-52 bombers are now on their way to the Middle East as part of Sunday’s announced USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group deployment. According to details revealed by CBS News: Two of the bombers are expected to leave Tuesday from Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana, arriving at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar on Wednesday, CBS News national security correspondent David Martin reports. The White House house had previously warned of “a number of troubling and escalatory indications and warnings” from Iran, for which Bolton said the US was prepared to use “unrelenting force”..  “The United States is not seeking war with the Iranian regime, but we are fully prepared to respond to any attack, whether by proxy, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or regular Iranian forces,” Bolton said previously as part of his Sunday statements.On Monday Axios published a report by Israeli correspondent Barak Ravid which identified Israel as behind the intelligence warning the White House appears to be basing its information on.“Israel passed information on an alleged Iranian plot to attack U.S. interests in the Gulf to the U.S. before national security adviser John Bolton threatened Iran with ‘unrelenting force’ last night, senior Israeli officials told me,” Ravid wrote in the Axios report. Though many indicators suggest the deployment of the nuclear-powered USS Abraham Lincoln carrier to the Middle East CENTCOM region had already been scheduled prior to Bolton’s Sunday claim that it was being sent on a mission to help secure US assets from Iranian attack, the carrier appears to be quickly moving toward the Persian Gulf.

Trump’s Iran Policy Is Becoming Dangerous - On May 5, U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton issued a stark warning to Iran. The United States, he announced, would deploy the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group along with a bomber task force to the Persian Gulf, “to send a clear and unmistakable message to the Iranian regime that any attack on United States interests or on those of our allies will be met with unrelenting force.” The United States, he continued, “is not seeking war with the Iranian regime” but is “fully prepared to respond to any attack.”  It remains unclear what triggered the deployment and Bolton’s strong language. Initial reports suggested that it may have come in response to indications that Iranian-backed Shiite militias were planning attacks against U.S. troops in Iraq. Other reporting suggested that Israel had tipped off U.S. officials to an impending Iranian attack against U.S. interests, personnel, or allies in the Gulf. An anonymous U.S. official said the deployment had been ordered to bolster “deterrence to what has been seen as potential preparations by Iranian forces and its proxies that may indicate possible attacks on U.S. forces in the region,” but the official added that there were no signs of an imminent Iranian attack.Given Bolton’s long track record of exaggerating and manipulating intelligence to justify the use of force, it might be tempting to dismiss all of this as fake news. But the prospect of Iran engaging in a provocation that sparks a wider military confrontation is very real—even if it is the Trump administration’s own policy of cornering Tehran that has greatly magnified the danger.Bolton’s warning comes against the backdrop of rapidly escalating tensions between the United States and Iran. One year ago, U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and reimposed severely damaging banking and oil sanctions aimed at starving Iran of resources and destabilizing the regime. Sanctions have taken a heavy toll on Iran’s economy, but the administration’s maximum pressure campaign has thus far failed to force Tehran to negotiate a new nuclear accord or to curtail its support for terrorism and regional militancy. In the face of failure, the White House has not reevaluated its position. Instead, it has doubled down.

Will the U.S. Start a War Against Iran? -- On Sunday, May 5, U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton announced that the USS Abraham LincolnCarrier Strike Group and a bomber task force had begun to make their way from the Mediterranean Sea toward the coastline of Iran. Iran, Bolton said, had made “a number of troubling and escalatory indications and warnings.” He was, characteristically, not specific. It was enough that Bolton—who has a history of making hazardous statements—had made these comments from the perch of the White House in Washington, D.C. “The United States is not seeking war with the Iranian regime,” he said rather incredulously. After all, what is the arrival of a massive war fleet on the coastline of a country but a declaration of war? On his way to Europe, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that the “indications and warnings” included actions by the Lebanese political formation Hezbollah. Once more, Pompeo said he would give no evidence. “I don’t want to talk about what underlays it.” The journey of the USS Abraham Lincolnthrough the Red Sea comes as the U.S. government tries to tighten its sanctions regime against Iran. Any country that buys Iranian oil, the United States now says, will be liable to have sanctions placed against it. The five countries most vulnerable to further U.S. sanctions are China, India, Japan, South Korea, and Turkey. India, Japan, and South Korea have said that they would try and abide by the new, and harsh, U.S. sanctions. China and Turkey have made it clear that they will not follow the U.S. lead.  In April, the International Monetary Fund projected that Iran’s economy would likely slide downhill by 6 percent in 2019. The main reason for this continued slide is of course the U.S.-led sanctions that have whittled away at Iran’s budget and at the confidence of its people.  It did not help that last month Iran faced devastating floods in the country’s northeast and southwest. The damage is estimated to cost $2.5 billion. Countries that want to send financial support toward the flood victims cannot do so as a result of the U.S. sanctions on financial systems, says the Iranian Red Crescent Society. This is why in-kind aid has been the only thing that has been permitted into the country, with China sending tents and Austria sending blankets. But even in-kind aid, including from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, was blocked due to the U.S. sanctions. Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif wrote onTwitter, “Iranian Red Crescent can’t receive any funds due to illegal US sanctions. US should own up to its ECONOMIC TERRORISM.”

The U.S. Is Pressing Iran To Breach The Nuclear Deal  - 363 days ago the U.S. left the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the 'nuclear deal' with Iran, and reintroduced sanctions against trade with Iran.When the U.S. reintroduced sanctions on Iran it provided sanction 'wavers' for some customers of Iranian oil. Two weeks ago the extremists in the Trump administration won out and the those waivers were eliminated. Some of Iran's customers, Iraq, Turkey and China, will continue to buy Iranian oil and will face U.S. sanctions.The declared aim of the Trump administration's 'maximum pressure campaign' is to bring all trade with Iran to zero and the country to its knees.On Wednesday May 8, one years after the U.S. breached the deal, it will announce additional sanctions against the country: The Wall Street Journal reported last week that new sanctions would target petrochemical sales. I'm told the administration will likely impose those sanctions soon, but the new sanctions planned for this week will target a different sector of the Iranian economy. The only European response to the new announcements was a lame statement. The EU should fight for the JCPOA deal as it is in its interest. But instead it is slow-walking its badly designed INSTEX mechanism that would allow for sanction free trade with Iran. Iran will use the anniversary of the U.S. breach of the deal to announce that it will no longer stick to some of the restrictions of the JCPOA. The U.S. is not only sanctioning Iranian trade that was promised to be opened under the JCPOA deal, it is also trying to eliminate all other beneficial elements of the deal. The Trump administration wants to force Iran to come into breach of the deal to then use that as an excuse for further action against the country.

Trump administration's message to the world on Iran: 'Don't do business with these people' -- The U.S. announcement that a carrier strike group and bombers are being sent to the Mideast to put Iran on notice is a “strong message” and the “right message,” Energy Secretary Rick Perry told CNBC on Tuesday. President Donald Trump is saying to the world that the U.S. won’t stand for Tehran’s “support of terrorism” and its threats to restart its nuclear program, said Perry. “The smart message for our friends and allies around the world is. ‘Don’t do business with this people until they understand that there is a way to that you conduct yourself in the global community,’” Perry said in a “Squawk Box” interview. Last week, the Trump administration said it would end waivers for countries buying Iranian oil in an attempt to reduce Iran’s crude exports to zero following Washington’s withdrawal from the 2015 multination nuclear deal with Tehran. In response, state media there reports that Iran plans to revive part of its halted nuclear program but claims it does not plan to pull out of the nuclear agreement itself. U.S. national security advisor John Bolton, who has spearheaded an increasingly hawkish U.S. policy on Iran, revealed plans on Sunday for a carrier strike group deployment to the Mideast, saying the move shows America would retaliate with “unrelenting force” to any attack.

 Iran threatens to pull out of some parts of the 2015 nuclear deal - Iranian President Hassan Rouhani announced Wednesday his country would end its compliance with two particular conditions of the country's nuclear deal. It comes exactly one year after President Donald Trump announced America's withdrawal from the deal that has since been on life support as European, Russian and Chinese signatories endeavor to save it. Rouhani did not signal the end of deal entirely, but gave Europe an ultimatum: It will have 60 days to either follow the Trump administration or resume oil trade with Iran to save the agreement, violating U.S. sanctions. A failure to do the latter would prompt Tehran to return to high level uranium enrichment, the Iranian leader said. "The path we have chosen today is not the path of war, it is the path of diplomacy," Rouhani said in a televised speech. "But diplomacy with a new language and a new logic." Starting Wednesday, Iran will keep unspent enriched uranium instead of selling it, which it had been doing under the stipulations of the 2015 nuclear deal. This will help build its store of low enriched uranium and heavy water, which are used in nuclear reactors. If Europe does not step up to save the deal and protect Iran's oil and banking sectors from U.S. sanctions, Rouhani said, it will restart construction of its Arak nuclear reactor, which was capable of producing weapons-grade plutonium and had been shut down as part of the 2015 deal. Iran's level of uranium enrichment is said to be currently at just over 3%, as allowed under the nuclear deal for power generation. Enrichment needs to be at around 90% in order to build a bomb, from which Iran remains a long way away, experts say. But governments in the West fear Iran's atomic program could allow it to eventually build nuclear weapons, something at international bodies like the International Atomic Energy Agency and the UN said was being effectively prevented by the 2015 deal.

Iran: An Unfortunate Anniversary And Getting Worse -- It was a year ago today that President Trump removed the United States from the JCPOA nuclear agreement with Iran as well as Russia, China, UK, France, Germany, and the EU, under the auspices of the UN Security Council.    The other signatories have strongly opposed the US action, although it has been supported by Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt somewhat less enthusiastically.  These actions have involved reintroducing economic sanctions on Iran. Oil exports from Iran have fallen by half since then and are likely to fall further as the US ended waivers on May 2 for a set of nations from the oil sanctions, although reportedly at least China and maybe Turkey will ignore these sanctions.  Furthermore, quite recently the US has imposed sanctions directly on the Iranian Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist group.  While indeed this group has engaged in some such activities, this is the first time the US has declared a government entity of another nation to be terrorist group. Finally, just within the last few days, National Security Adviser John Bolton has announced that the aircraft carrier, Abraham Lincoln, will arrive in the Persian Gulf supposedly to deter Iran from attacking US troops or those of US allies, although no specific reports of Iranian threats to do anything of the sort have been reported, just general claims.  Apparently last year Bolton tried to do this but was blocked by then Sec. Def Mattis, but this year, his successor, Shanahan, has approved this provocative move. None of this is good, although the Israelis claim that Iranian aid for Hezbollah in Lebanon has been reduced, which I suspect has been Israel’s main goal in supporting this as I do not think they have viewed the supposed nuclear threat from Iran seriously, but they are afraid of Hezbollah, which they were unable to defeat easily the last time they invaded Lebanon. The final shoe to drop on this anniversary is that it is being reported that apparently Iran is losing its patience with the other signatories of the JCPOA in their inability to counter all these largely illegal actions by the US.  They are going to stop fully adhering to the JCPOA, although without fully abrogating it.  Apparently as a result of the sanctions they do not have enough enriched uranium to fuel their medical nuclear reactor. So, in technical violation of the accord they will begin enriching a small amount of uranium up to 20 percent (still way below weapons grade level) for use in this civilian reactor.  This is unfortunate, although I fear understandable.  Of course, this amounts to an escalation that will simply fuel further aggressive actions by the Trump administration.\

Israeli Intelligence Warned White House Of Iran Plot To Strike US Troops - On Sunday night US national security advisor John Bolton threatened Iran with  "unrelenting force" while announcing the deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group and a bomber task force to the Persian Gulf region, saying further it sends a "clear and unmistakable" message to the Iranian regime. Bolton's statement also cited a "number of troubling and escalatory indications and warnings" from Iran, which later on Monday morning CNN Pentagon correspondent Barbara Starr described based on unnamed US defense officials as including “specific and credible” Iranian threats against US assets in Syria, Iraq, and at sea. CNN's Starr reported the following:  US officials tell me the threats from Iran included “specific and credible” intelligence that Iranian forces and proxies were targeting US forces in Syria, Iraq and at sea. There were multiple threads of intelligence about multiple locations, the officials said.It turns out, perhaps predictably, that the ultimate source of these claims is none other than Israeli intelligence. Axios White House correspondent Barak Ravid reports:Israel passed information on an alleged Iranian plot to attack U.S. interests in the Gulf to the U.S. before national security adviser John Bolton threatened Iran with "unrelenting force" last night, senior Israeli officials told me.This also comes as some high level Israeli defense officials have claimed Iran ordered the Palestinian Islamic Jihad to initiate a conflict in Gaza in order to distract Israel from stopping supposed Iranian expansion inside Syria. Thus it appears an entire US carrier strike group is now responding to what the White House believes is credible intelligence provided by the Israelis. Or, it could simply fit with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's long stated intent to convince Washington to take preemptive military action against Iran. Remember the "specific incredible intelligence" that Saddam Hussein had WMDs? Yeah, Bolton was involved in that one too... https://t.co/YP5hmC5PZf

Trump Administration Inflated Iran Intelligence, U.S. Officials Say - On Sunday, the National Security Council announced that the U.S. was sending a carrier strike group and a bomber task force to the Persian Gulf in response to “troubling and escalatory” warnings from Iran—an eye-popping move that raised fears of a potential military confrontation with Tehran. Justifying the move, anonymous government officials cited intelligence indicating Iran had crafted plans to use proxies to strike U.S. forces, both off the coast of Yemen and stationed in Iraq. National Security Adviser John Bolton also discussed the intelligence on the record. A consensus appeared to be emerging: that Iran was gearing up for war.But multiple sources close to the situation told The Daily Beast that the administration blew it out of proportion, characterizing the threat as more significant than it actually was. “It’s not that the administration is mischaracterizing the intelligence, so much as overreacting to it,” said one U.S. government official briefed on it.Another source familiar with the situation agreed that the Trump administration’s response was an “overreaction” but didn’t dispute that a threat exists. Gen. Qasem Soleimani—the head of the Quds Force, Iran’s covert action arm—has told proxy forces in Iraq that a conflict with the U.S. will come soon, this source noted. “I would characterize the current situation as shaping operations on both sides to tilt the field in preparation for a possible coming conflict,” continued the second source, who is also a U.S. government official. “The risk is a low-level proxy unit miscalculating and escalating things. We’re sending a message with this reaction to the intelligence, even though the threat might not be as imminent as portrayed.”

U.S. renews some nuclear waivers for Iran, breaking from hard line -- The Trump administration last week renewed 5 of 7 sanctions waivers to continue permitting international civil nuclear cooperation with Iran — a selective approach that appears to acknowledge concerns of European allies.   Keeping most waivers in place risks signaling irresolution on the part of an administration that has made “maximum pressure” against the Islamic Republic a centerpiece of its foreign policy. On November 5, Washington granted waivers to select nuclear projects that were envisaged by the 2015nuclear accord. Those waivers were set to expire in early May.   The waivers the administration is revoking — for exporting surplus heavy water and for exchanging excess low-enriched uranium for natural uranium — increase the costs for Tehran should it domestically overproduce either.

• Revoking these waivers commits Washington to responding to, rather than grandfathering in, future Iranian violations.
• Washington is also circumscribing international efforts to further develop Iran’s nuclear program at the Bushehr nuclear power plant.
• At least 2 waivers the administration renewed could be seen as validating the regime’s claim that its nuclear program was purely peaceful.
• Keeping open Fordow, an underground facility once part of Iran’s illicit enrichment plans, reflects Iran’s negotiating successes with parties to the nuclear deal that had wanted to shutter it.
• Waiving sanctions on Arak undercuts, rather than reinforces, nonproliferation norms. Iranian officials havebragged about offsetting restrictions on the facility through illicit procurement of components they had to destroy.

The length of the waivers was cut from 180 days to 90. A shorter timeline will likely bring these facilities and projects under closer and more frequent scrutiny. This affords Washington additional opportunities to consolidate the various tracks of its Iran policy, especially as Tehran is reportedly set to limit its adherence to the nuclear deal.

Pompeo in Baghdad to Pressure Iraq to join Press against Iran; Iraq declines - Juan Cole – US secretary of state Mike Pompeo made a surprise four-hour visit to Baghdad on Tuesday in connection to the panic he is trying to trump up, along with US national security adviser and Sheldon Adelson plant John Bolton about Iran supposedly planning to attack US troops in the Middle East.For his part, Iraqi prime minister Adel Abdul Mahdi said in remarks to the press that Iraq will undertake to ensure the safety of the some 5,000 US troops in Iraq, who are helping the Iraqi army mop up ISIL remnants.At the same time, Abdul Mahdi insisted that Iraq would not participate in any economic boycott of any country, which is to say that he declined to cooperate with the Trump administration’s attempts to squeeze Iran.Iraqi sources said after the visit was over that Bolton offered to give Iraq a temporary waiver with regard to its trade ties with Iran. He may as well, since he is unlikely to get much cooperation from Shiite-ruled Iraq in the blockade on Iran. The Trump administration has imposed an international financial blockade on Iran trade, which has no UN backing or basis in international law. Iran is in compliance with its obligations under the 2015 nuclear deal, according to UN inspectors. In contrast, the United States has breached that treaty by its blockade. Tuesday night I watched Iranian president Hassan Rouhani give a speech in which he said that the 2015 nuclear deal is on life support, and that while Iran is not withdrawing from it, it will cease observing some self-limits it had imposed beyond the strict letter of the treaty. Iran will no longer limit enrichment of uranium to 3.67 percent (what is needed to make fuel for generating electricity). It has to be enriched to 95% for a bomb, but every increase above 3.67 percent is a tiny step toward the latter, and concerning to the world community.  Rouhani’s plans are foolish, since they just give ammunition to the US War Party, even though they are not steps toward a bomb. The only two countries in the greater Middle East who actually have nuclear weapons are Israel and Pakistan. Iran does not, and apparently has never intended to develop such weapons, in part on religious grounds.

‘Unreliable’: Iran’s Revolutionary Guards rejects talks with US - Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has rejected negotiations with the United States and denied the likelihood of a US attack, a day after US President Donald Trump urged talks while saying he could not rule out a military confrontation. "No talks will be held with the Americans and the Americans will not dare take military action against us," Yadollah Javani, the IRGC's deputy head for political affairs, was quoted as saying by Tasnim news agency on Friday. "Our nation ... sees America as unreliable." The dismissal came amid rising tensions between Washington and Tehran. Trump, who pulled the US out of a landmark deal curbing Iran's nuclear programme, has tightened sanctions on Tehran, eliminating waivers that had allowed some countries to buy Iranian oil, with the goal of reducing the country's crude exports to zero. The US also designated the IRGC a "terrorist organisation" in April. Last week, Washington deployed bombers and warships to the Middle East, citing "credible threats" from Iran. It did not offer evidence for the claim and Tehran dismissed the move as "psychological warfare". The B-52 bombers arrived at a US airbase in Qatar on Thursday night, US Central Command (CENTCOM) said, while the carrier USS Abraham Lincoln passed through Egypt's Suez Canal on Thursday. The Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group transits the Suez Canal on May 9 [US Navy handout via AFP] At the same time, Trump urged Iran's leadership to sit down with him to discuss giving up Tehran's nuclear programme. "What I would like to see with Iran, I would like to see them call me," he told reporters at the White House on Thursday. When asked about the risk of a US military confrontation with Iran, Trump said: "I guess you could say that always, right? I don't want to say no, but hopefully, that won't happen. We have one of the most powerful ships in the world that is loaded up and we don't want to do anything."

Israeli Newspaper Publishes Terms of ‘Deal of the Century’ - The US has said it will reveal its deal after the Muslim month of fasting comes to an end in early June.  The main points of the agreement put together by Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner — who has extensive interests in Israel and its settlements — and proposed by the US administration are as follows: A tripartite agreement will be signed between Israel, the PLO and Hamas, and a Palestinian state will be established that will be called “New Palestine” and will be established in the occupied West Bank and Gaza, with the exception of the settlements. Israel would release Palestinian prisoners gradually over the course of three years under the deal. The settlement blocs in the occupied West Bank, which are illegal under international law, would form part of Israel.Jerusalem will not be divided but is to be shared by Israel and the “New Palestine” with Israel maintaining general control.Palestinians living in Jerusalem would be citizens of the Palestinian state but Israel would remain in charge of the municipality and therefore the land. The newly formed Palestinian state would pay taxes to the Israeli municipality in order to be in charge of education in the city for Palestinians. The status quo at the holy sites will remain and Jewish Israelis will not be allowed to buy Palestinian houses and vice versa. Egypt will offer the new Palestinian state land to build an airport, factories and for agriculture which will service the Gaza Strip. Palestinians will not be permitted to live on this land. A highway would be built to connect the Gaza Strip to the West Bank 30 metres above Israel. Funding for the project will mainly come from China, which will pay 50 per cent of the cost, with South Korea, Australia, Canada, the US and EU each paying a ten per cent each.  The US, EU and Gulf states would fund and sponsor the deal for five years to establish the state of “New Palestine”, the leak claims. This would be at a cost of $6 billion a year; the majority of which -70 per cent – would be paid by Gulf states, with the US contributing 20 per cent and the EU ten per cent. “New Palestine” would not be allowed to form an army but could maintain a police force.  Instead, a defence agreement will be signed between Israel and the “New Palestine” in which Israel would defend the new state from any foreign attacks. Upon signing the agreement, Hamas will hand over all its weapons to Egypt. The movement’s leaders would be compensated and paid salaries by Arab states while a government is established. If Hamas or any Palestinian bodies refuse this deal, the US will cancel all of its financial support to the Palestinians and pressure other countries to do the same.  If, on the other hand, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas signs the deal but Hamas and Islamic Jihad do not agree to it, a war would be waged on the Gaza Strip with the full backing of the US.  However, if Israel refuses the deal the US would cease its financial support. The US currently pays $3.8 billion a year to support Israel.

US preparing for possible military intervention in Venezuela, says Pompeo - US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the United States has a full range of options available to help oust Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and didn’t rule out “ultimately” using military action on top of diplomatic, political and other pressure points. “We’re preparing those for him so that when the situation arises, we’re not flat-footed,’’ Mr Pompeo said on ABC’s “This Week”, one of three scheduled appearances on Sunday morning political shows. Mr Pompeo said on Sunday that he can’t predict when Mr Maduro will be forced out of office – whether days, weeks or months. But Nicolas Maduro can’t feel good about his situation because while he might be ruling for the moment, he can’t govern, Mr Pompeo said. “There’s enormous poverty, enormous starvation, sick children that can’t get medicine,” the Secretary of State said. “This is not someone who can be part of Venezuela’s future.” The US didn’t suffer an intelligence failure this week about the prospects of Venezuelan opposition Juan Guaido successfully leading an uprising to oust Maduro, Mr Pompeo said on ABC. “These things sometimes take time,” he said on Fox News Sunday. Venezuela’s fate lies with the military but it is not a lost cause Mr Pompeo said Maduro wouldn’t be in power without assistance from Cuba, and he also dismissed the idea that President Donald Trump is out of step with his own advisers on the role Russia is playing in supporting Maduro in Venezuela. Donald Trump on Friday said Russian President Vladimir Putin assured him he isn’t seeking to “get involved” in the crisis, although Mr Pompeo and National Security Adviser John Bolton both said earlier in the week that the Kremlin talked Mr Maduro out of leaving Venezuela after US-backed Guaido attempted to end his regime by calling for a military uprising. “The president has made clear, we want everyone out, and that includes the Russians,” Mr Pompeo said.

 Venezuela’s Guaido ‘Considering’ Asking US to Invade— Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido has confirmed that he is considering asking the United States to invade Venezuela to install him in power. He says this is one of several options under consideration now. Guaido is keen to see Maduro forcibly removed from power so he can replace him, and after last week’s failed US-backed coup, he is looking for a new avenue to pursue, despite arguing that he’s not “defeated” entirely.Russian FM Sergey Lavrov issued his own statement on Sunday, calling on the US to abandon its campaign to overthrow Maduro at any rate, saying it was an “irresponsible” plan. Lavrov will be in Finland on Monday, and is expected to meet with Mike Pompeo while there. The US has for months committed to supporting Guaido, and officials have long threatened an invasion to make it happen. Though not everyone in the US is on board with a war, some in the administration maintain that the US is determined to oust Maduro by any method, and seem to be running out of ideas for a US-imposed regime change that doesn’t involve conquering the country.

CNN Falsely Claims Venezuela’s Guaido Was Elected President in January— Continuing to try to advance the US narrative that Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido is the “duly elected” president, CNN went to the trouble on Sunday afternoon of inventing an entire election to base this around. In the CNN report, they declared “pressure is mounting on Maduro to step down, following elections in January in which voters chose opposition leader Juan Guaido over him for president.” There was no election in January.  In reality, Venezuela’s presidential election was held on May 20, 2018. The opposition boycotted the vote, Maduro won with 67.8% of the vote, while Guaido did not participate at all. Indeed, the only time Juan Guaido participated in a presidential vote of any kind was the 2012 Democratic Unity Roundtable’s presidential primary, which he lost. Guaido’s first claim to the presidency came in January of 2019, when he unilaterally declared himself “acting president.”Yet the Trump Administration not only endorsed Guaido as president at this time, they’ve begun referring to him as the “duly elected” president despite such an election never taking place. US media outlets have parroted that claim, but CNN took it a step farther to invent the election too.The CNN article was written by two senior writers, and had four others contribute to it. It is hard to imagine that none of them caught this false claim of a January vote. Yet the article remained unchanged throughout Sunday and overnight, and it was only some time on Monday that it was finally revised to say that Guaido had “declared himself interim president.”

Despite International Law, Pompeo Claims US Military Attack on Venezuela “Would Be Lawful”— After U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Sunday morning that President Donald Trump has a “full range of options” when it comes to possible next moves against Venezuela, anti-war critics are wondering what the Democrats in Congress are prepared to do in order to curtail the administration’s ongoing threat of using military force to overthrow the government of President Nicolas Maduro – an effort international legal experts say would be a violation of international law.“We have a full range of options that we’re preparing for,” Pompeo said on ABC’s “This Week.”Asked if the president believed he had the authority to attack Venezuela without the expressed approval of Congress, Pompeo said, “I don’t want to speak to that,” but added that the President Trump has “his full range of Article 2 authorities”—referring to the section of the Constitution that grants the president specific (yet not unlimited) powers—”and I’m very confident that any action we took in Venezuela would be lawful.”

Pompeo won’t promise to consult Congress about potential military intervention in Venezuela - Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Sunday confirmed that the Trump administration is making contingency plans for U.S. military intervention in Venezuela - but refused to say whether the administration would seek congressional authorization first. "I don't want to speak to that," Pompeo said, pointing to the powers granted to the president as commander in chief under the Constitution. "The president has his full range of Article 2 authorities, and I'm very confident that any action we took in Venezuela would be lawful." The Trump administration has long flirted with the idea of a military intervention to back the campaign by Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó, who tried but failed last week to oust President Nicolás Maduro. But Pompeo's evasion of a direct question about the role of Congress - which is the body empowered to declare war under the Constitution - could strike a nerve with several Republicans, who have chafed at successive administrations pursuing military campaigns on what they see as flimsy or nonexistent legal grounds. On Friday, Sen. Todd Young, R-Ind., called on the leaders of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, of which he is a member, to hold a hearing on the use of military force in Venezuela, noting he was "concerned by reports of possible U.S. military intervention" without congressional authorization. Young is also chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the GOP's campaign arm for the Senate.

Another Jolly Little War - - Sure. Let’s invade Venezuela. Another jolly little war. It’s full of commies and has a sea of oil. The only thing those Cuban-loving Venezuelans lack are weapons of mass destruction. This week, leading US neocons openly threatened that if the CIA’s latest attempts to stage a coup to overthrow Venezuela’s Maduro government failed, Washington might send in the Marines. Well, the coup was a big fiasco and the Venezuelan army didn’t overthrow President Maduro. The CIA also failed to overthrow governments in Moscow, Tehran and Damascus. Its only ‘success’ to date has been in overthrowing Ukraine’s pro-Moscow government and putting a bunch of corrupt clowns in its place at a cost near $10 billion. The US has not waged a major successful war since World War II – unless you count invading Grenada, Panama and Haiti, or bombing the hell out of Iraq, Syria, Somalia and Libya. That’s a sobering thought given the Pentagon’s recent announcement that it is cutting back on little colonial wars (aka ‘the war on terror’) to get ready for real big wars against Russia and China, or even North Korea. Venezuela is in a huge economic mess thanks to the crackpot economic policies of the Chavez and Maduro governments – and US economic sabotage. But my first law of international affairs is: ‘Every nation has the absolute god-given right to mismanage its own affairs and elect its own crooks or idiots.’ Now, however, the administration’s frenzied neocons want to start a war against Venezuela, a large, developed nation of 32.7 million, at the same time we are threatening war against Iran, interfering all around Africa, and confronting Russia, China and perhaps North Korea. Large parts of the Mideast and Afghanistan lie in ruins thanks to our ‘liberation’ campaigns. Invading Venezuela would not be much of a problem for the US military: half the population hates the current government and might welcome the Americans. Venezuela’s military has only limited combat value. Right-wing regimes in neighboring Colombia and Brazil might join the invasion. 

US State Department publishes, then deletes sadistic Venezuela hit list boasting of economic ruin  - On April 24, six days before self-proclaimed Venezuelan “interim president” Juan Guaido’s attempt to violently overthrow Venezuela’s democratically elected government alongside a handful of military defectors, the U.S. State Department published a fact sheet that boasted of Washington’s central role in the ongoing coup attempt. After realizing the incriminating nature of its error, the State Department quickly acted to remove the page. The Grayzone has obtained a full copy of the expunged report. The deleted page puts to bed any claims of Guaido’s independence from Washington, as the State Department emphasizes the fact that he “announced his interim presidency… in January” at the the top of a section dedicated to breaking down “key outcomes” of U.S. efforts with regard to Venezuela. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs Kimberly Breier recently took to Twitter to claim that “since he became acting president, Juan Guaido has given tangible results to the people of Venezuela.” Her tweet was accompanied with an infographic detailing alleged accomplishments of the powerless coup administration based on data compiled by the legally defunct National Assembly, the only governing body actually controlled by Guaido. But the Venezuela fact sheet posted and then deleted days earlier by the State Department told a dramatically different story.  Entitled “U.S. Actions on Venezuela,” the document boasted that U.S. policy had effectively prevented the Venezuelan government from participating in the international market and has led to the freezing of its overseas assets. It read like a sadistic celebration of Washington’s retribution against the Venezuelan population as a whole, the kind of collective punishment which is illegal according to Article 33 of the Geneva Conventions.  Read the entire expunged fact sheet here [PDF] and at the end of this article.

Just A Human Being - Rachel Maddow's Latest Resistance Hero -- MSNBC's Rachel Maddow is now championing neocon national security adviser John Bolton's "humanity" given he apparently went loose cannon this past week, vowing to confront Russia over Venezuela even as his boss President Trump downplayed Moscow's role in the crisis after a Friday phone call with Putin. "This is what John Bolton, human being, thought his job was this week,” Maddow said on her show Friday night. Both Pompeo and Bolton had clearly gone a bit rogue with their overly bellicose Venezuela comments, while Trump appeared to be more restrained — and for Maddow this was of course cause for championing the neocon interventionist line: “Hey, John Bolton, hey, Mike Pompeo, are you guys enjoying your jobs right now?” she questioned.  Liberal militarist Rachel @maddow wants war with Venezuela to “stop Russia,” expresses solidarity with John Bolton and Mike Pompeo https://t.co/BuZhyFnGLy  — Max Blumenthal (@MaxBlumenthal) May 4, 2019On Friday Trump had said following the phone call, Putin is “not looking at all to get involved in Venezuela other than he’d like to see something positive happen in Venezuela, and I feel the same way.” Maddow, who once prided herself on slamming and deconstructing Bush-era regime change wars, now finds Trump not jingoistic enough. She stridently questioned: “How do you come to work anymore if you’re John Bolton? Right, regardless of what you thought about John Bolton before this, his whole career and his track record, I mean, just think of John Bolton as a human being. This is what John Bolton, human being, thought his job was this week.”She further cut to a clip of Bolton criticizing Russia’s alleged military involvement in Venezuela to prop up Maduro, because apparently uber-hawk Bolton is now a "fearless truth-teller" in Maddow's world. “You thought that was your job,” Maddow said. “But it turns out not at all, not after Vladimir Putin gets done with President Trump today.”Maddow goonsplaining to Bolton. We're not even halfway through 2019. https://t.co/2SwQIYRkSs — Mark Ames (@MarkAmesExiled) May 4, 2019

Anti-War Voices Warn of CIA Provocation to Kill Guaidó, Blame Maduro — Prominent American anti-war figures from across the ideological spectrum are warning that the Trump administration may soon turn on Juan Guaidó — the man they recognize as Venezuela’s interim president — in order to justify military intervention in Venezuela. These warnings followed Guaidó’s failed attempt to lead a military uprising on Tuesday, which analysts characterized as a desperate move, with Guaidó’s parallel government having failed to gain any significant traction in Venezuela since late January. With Guaidó now quickly losing legitimacy and momentum since Tuesday’s failed coup, it has become increasingly probable that his political patrons — the United States — may soon turn on him, as any harm done to him could be blamed on Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro, which would allow the U.S. government to justify aggressive action against the Maduro-led government.One of the first prominent anti-war voices to raise concern that the U.S. government, particularly the CIA, may now see Guaidó as more valuable dead than alive was Daniel McAdams, executive director of the Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity and co-host of the Ron Paul Liberty Report, with the former congressman, presidential candidate and well-known libertarian. During Tuesday’s edition of the Liberty Report, Paul raised concern that a provocation could be used to push for foreign (i.e., U.S.) military intervention in Venezuela:The big danger is a hard war breaking out. I’d still bet it won’t be too bad, with thousands of troops moving. But it could be a guerrilla war or something like that. If there is a false flag or some important official on either side gets killed, you can’t tell what might happen.” McAdams responded, pointing out that Guaidó himself could soon become such a target for a provocation:  He [Guaidó] has been a kind of a hapless figure so far. He calls for mass protests and no one shows up. I don’t think he realizes right now that he is actually now worth more dead than alive not only to the CIA, but also to his own opposition people. A shot in the crowd or something like that to take Guaidó out. It might shock you, Dr. Paul, but the CIA is pretty good at this kind of things.”

Failed Venezuela coup was fake news — designed to fool people in two nations - After days of breathless reporting in the U.S. media about public and military support for Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro collapsing, and about an April 30 coup by presidential poseur Juan Guaidó, we now know the truth:  The whole thing was a fraud, staged at the instigation of Washington in hopes that the Venezuelan people andrank-and-file troops would fall for the trick and think an actual coup was underway. We also know, from an excellent May 2 report by Michael Fox in the Nation, that the U.S. mainstream media and its reporters in country were promoting that dangerous fraud.  CNN ran Juan Guaido’s video, in which he falsely claimed to be “in the La Carlota air force base.”Take CNN. In its reporting on the “uprising” announced by Guaidó on Tuesday, April 30, it ran a video from social media depicting Guaidó, accompanied by opposition leader Leopoldo López, along with some armed men in uniform, said to be military defectors, standing behind them. The video claimed they were on the La Carlota military airfield in eastern Caracas, which Guaidó said had been “liberated.” According to CNN, he was addressing “thousands of supporters” on the scene, urging the rest of the Venezuelan military to join the coup and oust the “usurper” Maduro.But as Michael Fox and other observers noted, CNN didn’t show those “thousands” of supporters — because there were none. Nor did the cable network explain in its report that Guaidó and López were not actually at the airbase, but rather were standing on a highway overpass outside the base — which was, in fact, never in rebel hands at all. Guaidó and his “deserting” soldiers quickly left the scene as government troops headed their way, with López later that day holing up in the Chilean and eventually the Spanish embassy, seeking asylum for himself and his family, and with some two dozen soldiers who had deserted in support of Guaidó asking for asylum in the Brazilian embassy. There are two possibilities here: Either CNN’s U.S.-based editors were lied to by their reporters in Caracas, or they were well aware that their story of the takeover of a military airfield, along with reports of thousands of protesters on the scene in support of Guaidó, was a hoax. It’s not hard to imagine the latter being the truth, because CNN earlier was caught fraudulently reporting that Venezuelan troops had set aid trucks stopped at the Colombian border afire, when in fact the fires had been started by anti-Maduro protesters. Though this truth was proven by other reports and video, CNN never corrected its false story in that case, nor did it discipline its on-the-scene reporters.

Maduro Hunts Down Traitors As US Pressures More To Follow Guaido -  Venezuelen President Nicolas Maduro is busy hunting down allies of opposition leader Juan Guaido's in an attempt at "cleaning house" after recent failed coup events, but this isn't going unnoticed by Washington. The US Treasury on Friday announced possible sanctions on any security forces or officers involved in a revenge crackdown in “a direct response to Sebin’s illegal arrest of National Assembly members” — a reference to the internal intelligence police. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the announcement “puts Venezuela’s military and intelligence services, as well as those who support them, on notice that their continued backing of the illegitimate Maduro regime will be met with serious consequences.  Bloomberg notes that "Guaido allies went into hiding in safe houses and foreign embassies as Maduro’s forces led by the intelligence police, known as Sebin, executed search warrants and issued arrest warrants following a failed attempt to topple the president last week."Treasury Secretary Mnuchin also lashed out at the government of Cuba, Maduro’s most important ally, which White House officials have of late identified as providing secret military support propping up the Maduro regime amid popular protest and unrest. “The U.S. will take further action if Cuba continues to receive Venezuelan oil in exchange for military support,” Mnuchin said. “As we have repeatedly said, the path to sanctions relief for those who have been sanctioned is to take concrete and meaningful actions to restore democratic order.”   Meanwhile, in the latest evidence that high level fissures have developed among Maduro's top officials, former intelligence service chief Gen. Manuel Cristopher Figuera was branded a "traitor" in public statements issued by Maduro this week following his confirmed high level defection.

Pushed to act, U.S. to send military hospital ship toward Venezuela - Under pressure to take military action in Venezuela, the Pentagon will deploy a military hospital ship to the region to help care for Venezuelan refugees.Vice President Mike Pence, speaking at a gathering of Latin American diplomats at the State Department, announced the USNS Comfort will be dispatched in June for a five-month humanitarian mission to the Caribbean, Central America and South America.“United States military and medical personnel, working alongside their counterparts from across the region, will provide medical assistance to communities in need and help relieve countries overwhelmed by the influx of people fleeing Venezuela,” Pence said during his address to the 49th Annual Washington Conference on the Americas.Amid the uncertainty following an unsuccessful opposition uprising in Venezuela, the Trump administration has been scrambling for new ideas to increase pressure on the government of Nicolás Maduro. Last week, Juan Guaidó, whom the United States considers the legitimate president of Venezuela, stood in front of armed military officers and called for Venezuelans to join him for the “final phase” of an effort to take physical control of the government. But Guaidó was unable to rally enough support from the Venezuelan military, and after days of violence in street protests, Maduro has held control of the military and government offices.

White House Lifts Sanctions On Venezuelan General Who Turned On Maduro --Those who have bothered to read SOUTHCOM's comprehensive, multi-pronged plan to destabilize and ultimately topple Nicolas Maduro - a plan that, notably, ends with coalition troops on the ground - will recognize that two of the final steps involves enticing Venezuelan professionals to flee while encouraging military officials to give a coup d'etat one more try. That appears to be what the US had in mind on Tuesday when it lifted sanctions on a Venezuelan general who broke ranks with the regime following a week of largely unsuccessful street demonstrations.  And in a speech in Washington on Tuesday, Vice President Mike Pence is expected to announce the removal of all sanctions on Gen. Manuel Cristopher Figuera, a general who warned 25 supreme court magistrates that they would be "held accountable" unless they backed opposition leader Juan Guaido, according to WSJ.  During the speech, Pence is expected to denounce Venezuela's courts as a tool of corruption, and dangle sanctions relief in front of any other senior military or government officials willing to turn on Maduro. Vice President Mike Pence will say Venezuela’s supreme court has "become a political tool for a regime that usurps democracy, indicts political prisoners, and promotes authoritarianism.""It’s time for this body to return to its founding purpose," Mr. Pence will say, according to prepared remarks. "If the Supreme Court of Venezuela does not return to its constitutional mandate to uphold the rule of law, the United States will hold all 25 of its magistrates accountable for their actions." Mr. Pence will highlight the removal, effective immediately, of all sanctions on Venezuelan Gen. Manuel Cristopher Figuera, the director the country’s intelligence service, Sebin, who is no longer supporting Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Gen. Figuera issued a statement last week announcing his break with Mr. Maduro.

Trump Turns On Bolton, Accuses Him Of 'Trying To Start A War' In Venezuela- WaPo - Has President Trump finally turned on John Bolton? It's starting to look that way. Shortly before President Trump tweeted about a meeting with Marco Rubio and Rick Scott where the "terrible abuses by Maduro" were discussed, the Washington Post published an anonymously sourced story claiming that Trump is growing frustrated with the situation in Venezuela, and is blaming aides like Bolton for misleading him about opposition leader Juan Guaido's chances of success.  According to WaPo, Trump has privately described Maduro as a "tough cookie", and blamed aides for misleading him when they said the socialist strongman could be ousted during last week's demonstrations. In recent days, Trump has expressed concern that Bolton is trying to get him "into a war." We imagine a leaked plan for a US-backed coup prepared by SOUTHCOM hasn't helped to assuage these concerns. And remember, Bolton has also been a key figure in escalating tensions with Iran to what is starting to look like the brink of an armed conflict. Though two WaPo sources insisted that Bolton's job is 'safe' - for now at least - the fact that Trump has finally caught on to the drawbacks of Bolton's neoconnishness, and now appears to understand that Bolton's views are at odds with Trump's "America First" platform, certainly doesn't bode well for his prospects. Still, the administration's policy is officially unchanged. But the report at least shows that Trump is uneasy about what appears to be a slow march toward another American military intervention - and might be taking steps to stop it from happening.

Secret Service Blocking Food From Reaching Activists Inside Venezuelan Embassy - — Since April 30, the Venezuelan Embassy in Washington has been under siege by pro-coup activists who have repeatedly stated their intention to prevent the access of food to the people inside, who are living there at the invitation of the elected government of Venezuela. The U.S. Secret Service is outsourcing its desires to remove the Embassy Protection Collective to the violent and bigoted protesters.  The Secret Service has said that it will not prevent those in the building from accessing food or supplies, but on Monday morning that proved to be a lie. Instead of merely abetting the opposition’s war of attrition, the Secret Service now serves as a second line of defense against the delivery of food, having now denied its entry themselves. Embassy protectors say it is a violation of their human rights.  The Embassy Protection Collective is holding down the embassy in order to prevent the United States from violating international law, as it seeks to hand over the Maduro government’s diplomatic location to the illegitimate shadow government of Juan Guaidó, which is unable to provide to Venezuelans in the U.S. diplomatic services such as the issuance of visas or passports because it holds no tangible power in the country. One may be inclined to think that besieging lawful tenants of a building could be construed as a violation of some U.S. criminal code, but the police have allowed for the siege to go on. Their stated policy is to not prevent the access of food or medicine, but also to not prevent the opposition from preventing it.

MintPress, Grayzone Journalists Endure US Gov’t Blackout and Siege at Venezuelan Embassy in DC — MintPress News journalist Alexander Rubinstein and a reporter for The Grayzone, Anya Parampil, are besieged inside the Venezuelan Embassy in Washington, and have been since March 30, in an egregious attack against press freedom. On Wednesday evening, events took a turn for the worse as the Metropolitan DC police cut off the power and water to the building — a violation of international law under the Vienna Diplomatic Conventions, Article 25, which reads, “The receiving State shall accord full facilities for the performance of the functions of the [diplomatic] mission.”There is little doubt that this blackout and the other illegal punitive measures taken against the activists and journalists inside the embassy –which have been described by the activists as sanctions — were intended to silence journalists covering the Embassy Protection Collective’s efforts to protect the Venezuelan Embassy from fascist, pro-Venezuela-coup protesters. On Wednesday night, after the power was cut, I spoke with Rubinstein, who said he had 5 percent battery left on his phone.Members of the Collective are living inside the embassy at the invitation of the elected government of Venezuela and show no signs of backing down. In a video statement, Kevin Zeese of Popular Resistance and an activist with the Embassy Protection Collective revealed that the Collective has been prepared for the electricity shut down and pointed to parallels between the way the U.S. government treats the Venezuelan people and what it is doing to the Embassy Collective:

Tariff Man Set To Impose Duties on Yarn From China, India - The US Department of Commerce (DoC) announced earlier this week that countervailing duty investigations discovered polyester textured yarn from China and India were unfairly subsidized, damaging American producers. In response, the DoC is expected to slap Chinese producers with tariffs of between 32% and 460% and Indian producers of between 7.1% and 20.5%, reported the DoC Office of Public Affairs. The DoC notified US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) about the issue, has instructed all customs agents to collect only cash deposits from importers of the yarn from China and India based on the preliminary rates below. The deepening trade war comes as two American yarn producers claim in petitions that China and India have severely crippled their domestic operations by dumping low-cost, subsidized imports of yarn into North American markets. "This is an important issue with respect to US producers of fiber and textile products," the petitioners' attorney, Paul Rosenthal of Kelley Drye & Warren in Washington, DC, told Law.com in an interview Thursday. "We're happy that our allegations concerning subsidies by the Chinese and Indian governments have been found to be accurate and has resulted in some preliminary duties." The petitioners are Unifi Manufacturing Inc. in Greensboro, North Carolina, and Nan Ya Plastics Corp. in Lake City, South Carolina, have demanded that DoC impose antidumping and countervailing tariffs on foreign subsidized yarn. The DOC said a preliminary determination on the antidumping duties would be announced shortly.

Trump threatens new tariffs against China - US president Trump has threatened to impose more tariffs on Chinese goods imported into the US ahead of talks between the top-level representatives of the two sides that start in Washington on Wednesday. The talks, following discussions in Beijing last week, had been widely touted as putting the final touches on an agreement, so that Trump and China’s president Xi Jinping could sign off on a deal later this month or in June. But tweets issued by Trump on Sunday have cast considerable doubt on that scenario, indicating that what was to have been the final round of negotiations has run into major obstacles. Trump threatened that the 10 percent tariff on $200 worth of Chinese goods would rise to 25 percent on Friday, and that an additional $325 billion worth of Chinese goods currently “untaxed” would “shortly” be subject to tariffs of 25 percent. “The trade deal with China continues, but too slowly, as they attempt to renegotiate. No!,” Trump wrote. The threat to escalate tariffs, which if carried out would end any prospect of a trade deal, marks a sharp turn in the rhetoric from the US administration. As recently as Friday, White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said the administration was “heartened” to see progress with China, although some issues still needed to be resolved. Trump himself kept to script of the past several months, telling reporters that “the deal itself is going pretty well. I would even say very well.” He indicated that signing a deal with Beijing could be weeks away. It is not entirely clear what prompted the sudden shift on the part of Trump, but reports on the talks have indicated that one of the major conflicts is over whether, and how fast, existing tariffs imposed by the US would be removed in the event of a deal.

Trump threatens to increase tariffs on Chinese goods on Friday - President Trump said Sunday that he will increase tariffs on Chinese imports on Friday, unexpectedly setting what appears to be a new deadline to produce a comprehensive deal or trigger an escalation of the year-long U.S.-China trade war. Days before Chinese negotiators are scheduled to arrive in Washington, the president threatened to increase tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods from 10 percent to 25 percent on Friday and levy a new 25 percent fee on all remaining Chinese imports “shortly.’’ [Trump’s washing-machine tariffs cost U.S. consumers $815,000 for every job created] In a pair of tweets, Trump accused China of trying to “renegotiate” the terms of an agreement that representatives have been trying to finish for five months. The hard-line turn was at odds with recent administration optimism, and it unsettled plans for this week’s potential final round of negotiations. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He was expected to lead a 100-person delegation to Washington on Wednesday and meet with Trump to finalize a deal, but administration officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss the matter publicly, said they weren’t sure he would arrive as scheduled. The president’s tough talk also caught investors by surprise, threatening to short-circuit a market rally that has lifted stocks by more than 20 percent since late December. The Dow Jones industrial average appeared headed for a sharp decline to open the week, with stock futures indicating a drop of more than 450 points or nearly 2 percent in the offing for Monday trading.

In abrupt move, Donald Trump says 10 per cent China tariffs will rise to 25 per cent on Friday - US President Donald Trump said punitive tariffs on US$200 billion of imports from China will increase to 25 per cent from 10 per cent on Friday and might slap extra duties on the rest of what the country ships to the US. Trump’s announcement on Twitter comes just days before Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He is due to arrive in Washington for an 11th round of negotiations aimed at ending a bilateral tariff war that started when Washington levied a first round of punitive tariffs on Chinese imports in July 2018. The president’s move follows signals that the most recent round of talks in Beijing last week did not yield progress on some US demands, including a curtailment of Chinese government subsidies to the country’s state-owned enterprises – one of the factors that prompted the US government to start the trade war. A remaining US$325 billion in Chinese goods still untouched by the stand-off will become subject to the 25 per cent “soon”, said Trump, who added that he’s moving ahead with more tariffs because Beijing was moving “too slowly, as they attempt to renegotiate”.Trump imposed duties of 25 per cent on an initial US$50 billion of Chinese goods and then 10 per cent on an additional US$200 billion in products. The step up to 25 per cent on the later tranche was put on hold after talks between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Argentina in December. Doubts around the ability of US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Liu to close a deal emerged last week, when Myron Brilliant, the US Chamber of Commerce’s head of international affairs, suggested the Chinese side is balking on providing any assurances that they would cut back on subsidies provided to state-owned firms.

Going South - Kunstler - A 25 percent tariff on Chinese goods coming into the USA. That’ll git her done, all right — if you mean pulling the plug on America’s holographic economy. For about thirty years this is how it worked: China sent a massive volume of finished goods to us and we paid them with a massive volume of US Treasury bonds at ever-lower interest rates. A great deal for us while it lasted. Or so it seemed. Eventually, China caught onto the swindle and began liquidating its US bond holdings to buy gold and other real goods like African mining rights and farmland, Iranian oil, and port facilities in strategic corners of the world. Now China has obviously designed a policy to dissociate itself as much as possible from the losing trade racket with us and replace the American market by increments with whatever customer base it can cobble together from the rest of the world. The Belt-and-Road initiative to physically link China with Central Asia (and beyond) with railroad lines and highways through some of the most forbidding terrain on earth was an out-front part of the plan, which we haplessly financed by buying all that stuff they sent over here for decades, and giving them the time to complete that colossal project.  Buying all those cheap toaster-ovens, patio loungers, sneakers, sheet-rock screws, alarm clocks, croquet mallets… well, you name it, naturally made it uneconomical for America to make the same stuff, with all our silly-ass sentimental attachment to union wages, eight-hour workdays, and pollution regs, so we just steadily let the lights go out and the roofs fall in, and ramped up the “financialized” economy, with Wall Street parlaying Federal Reserve largess into an alternative universe of Three-Card-Monte scams using multilayered derivatives of promises to repay loans (that have poor prospects of ever being paid back).  The outcome of that was two Americas: the hipsterocracy of the coastal elites and the suicidal deplorables of Flyoverland. The hipsterocracy sustains itself on the manufactured hallucinations of the holographic economy — that is, on the production of images, TV psychodramas, news media narratives, status competitions, public relations campaigns, law firm machinations, awards ceremonies, and other signaling systems to maintain the illusion that the financialized economy has everything under control as we transform into a nirvana of ultra high tech pleasure-seeking and endless leisure.  Meanwhile, out in Flyoverland, the holograms aren’t selling so well anymore. Nobody has the scratch to pay for them, not even those indentured to the neo-feudal empires of WalMart and Amazon.

China considers canceling trade talks with U.S. after Trump vows new tariff hike: WSJ (Reuters) - China is considering canceling trade talks with the United States this week after U.S. President Donald Trump vowed to hike tariffs on China, the Wall street Journal reported on Sunday citing a source. Earlier on Sunday, Trump announced he would hike U.S. tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods this week and target hundreds of billions more soon. The decision on whether talks will be canceled depends on whether Vice Premier Liu He goes to Washington as planned, the journal reported, citing a source, who added that canceling talks would conform to China’s strategy of not negotiating under threat.“Unless China walks away from the talks (which is not necessarily the same as Vice Premier Liu canceling his trip but rather having no talks at all), we do not expect an escalation of trade tensions into a trade war,” Citi said. Some analysts differed as to whether Trump’s tweets were really a negotiating tactic. “The timing of the threat suggests it is a tactic designed to increase leverage going into final trade negotiations,” UBS said. But Raymond James wasn’t so sure. “Based upon our conversations with our trade contacts, there appears to be a universal belief that this is not negotiating leverage, but what was almost a done deal last week, has derailed in recent days,” wrote analyst Ed Mills in a note to clients. Here’s what strategists say about the U.S.-China tariff feud.

China trade team still plans on U.S. talks as Trump vows to raise tariffs (Reuters) - China said on Monday that a delegation was still preparing to go to the United States for trade talks, even as U.S. President Donald Trump dramatically increased pressure on Beijing to reach a deal, saying he would hike tariffs on Chinese goods this week. Trump’s comments on Sunday marked a major escalation in tensions between the world’s two largest economies, and a shift in tone from the president, who as recently as Friday had cited progress toward a deal. Stock markets sank and oil prices tumbled on his remarks, as negotiations to end the months-long trade war were thrown into doubt. [MKTS/GLOB] “We are also in the process of understanding the relevant situation. What I can tell you is that China’s team is preparing to go to the United States for the discussions,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang told a news briefing. But Geng did not say if Vice Premier Liu He, who is China’s lead official in the negotiations, will be part of the delegation as originally planned. Negotiations are set to start May 8 in Washington. “What is of vital importance is that we still hope the United States can work hard with China to meet each other half way, and strive to reach a mutually beneficial, win-win agreement on the basis of mutual respect,” Geng said. The Wall Street Journal reported earlier that China was considering cancelling this week’s meetings in Washington in light of Trump’s comments, which took Chinese officials by surprise. Trump appeared to defend his decision in a tweet early Monday, slamming the U.S.-China trade deficit and vowing not to lose out to Beijing.

 Here’s what Wall Street is saying about Trump’s tariff threat and what it means for investors - Wall Street strategists urged calm after the latest threats from President Donald Trump after a series of tweets Sunday afternoon. Trump warned that tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods could rise to 25% on Friday and China was considering canceling this week’s trade talks with the U.S. in light of the threat. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell as much as 471 points, before rebounding and was last down about 280 points.  “We think it is more likely that the increase will be narrowly avoided and believe the odds of tariffs increasing on Friday are 40%, ” Goldman Sachs analysts said.“Unless China walks away from the talks (which is not necessarily the same as Vice Premier Liu canceling his trip but rather having no talks at all), we do not expect an escalation of trade tensions into a trade war,” Citi said.Some analysts differed as to whether Trump’s tweets were really a negotiating tactic.“The timing of the threat suggests it is a tactic designed to increase leverage going into final trade negotiations,” UBS said.But Raymond James wasn’t so sure. “Based upon our conversations with our trade contacts, there appears to be a universal belief that this is not negotiating leverage, but what was almost a done deal last week, has derailed in recent days,” wrote analyst Ed Mills in a note to clients. Here’s what strategists say about the U.S.-China tariff feud.

Trump's Tariff-Threat Tweets Cost Global Investors $13 Billion Per Word...And Counting - Investors probably didn't need any more evidence to convince them that President Trump is the single most important figure in global markets.But for better or worse, that's what they got on Sunday, when Trump precipitated the most punishing selloff in global equity markets since the beginning of the year on Sunday with a pair of tweets threatening to raise tariffs on Chinese goods.Afterwards, US stock futures spiraled lower, while the Chinese equity market - the 2019 global performance leader - embarked on what would be its worst one-day drop in three years. For 10 months, China has been paying Tariffs to the USA of 25% on 50 Billion Dollars of High Tech, and 10% on 200 Billion Dollars of other goods. These payments are partially responsible for our great economic results. The 10% will go up to 25% on Friday. 325 Billions Dollars....— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 5, 2019 ....of additional goods sent to us by China remain untaxed, but will be shortly, at a rate of 25%. The Tariffs paid to the USA have had little impact on product cost, mostly borne by China. The Trade Deal with China continues, but too slowly, as they attempt to renegotiate. No!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 5, 2019   On Wednesday, Bloomberg calculated that each word in the two Trump tweets that shook global markets on Monday and Tuesday cost global investors $13 billion, as global equities erased $1.36 trillion in market cap.

White House to push ahead on new tariff threats against China - US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer has confirmed that the Trump administration will go ahead with the raising of tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods from 10 percent to 25 percent on Friday. The decision, first announced in tweets by Trump on Sunday, has effectively scuppered plans to reach a trade deal with China at talks in Washington later this week. At this stage, China is still planning to send a delegation, but it has been significantly downgraded. It is not clear whether the Chinese vice premier and chief trade negotiator Liu He will even attend. The tweets by Trump came after a weekend briefing from Lighthizer on the state of the negotiations in which he said they were going backwards. He tweeted the tariff hike and a warning that a 25 percent tariff on all Chinese exports to the US—covering an additional $325 billion worth of goods—could be imposed “shortly.” Trump himself upped the ante with a tweet on Monday: “The United States has been losing, for many years, 600 to 800 billion dollars a year on trade... Sorry, we’re not going to be doing that anymore.” Elaborating on the claim of Chinese backtracking on Monday, Lighthizer told reporters: “Over the course of the last week or so, we’ve seen an erosion in commitments by China, I would say retreating from commitments that have already been made in our judgment.” Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said some concerns arose last week when he and Lighthizer were in Beijing for talks, and that over the weekend the negotiations went “substantially backward.” US officials have declined to outline the areas where they consider China has backtracked. Lighthizer only said there was “concern about the form of the agreement and a redrafting of it” that would abandon previous commitments. According to reports, based on background briefings, the trigger for the breakdown came when Chinese officials said they would not agree to a trade deal requiring changes in Chinese law. Agreements would be implemented through regulations, which is considered unacceptable by the US because regulations have less force. Trump’s announcement of the tariff hike brought a sharp reaction on global markets, with the Shanghai market finishing down almost 6 percent yesterday after its worst day for more than three years.

U.S.-China: These Are Much More Than Just Trade Talks -   Marshall Auerback - Just when it appeared that Washington and Beijing were inching closer to concluding their trade negotiations (thereby bringing a cessation in the ongoing and escalating conflict), the U.S. president has thrown a new grenade in China’s direction. Trump “threatened to raise tariffs on all Chinese imports to 25 per cent, sharply ratcheting up pressure on Beijing to make concessions in trade talks and sending global equities markets sliding,” write James Politi, Courtney Weaver, Tom Mitchell and Yuan Yang of the Financial Times. Win or lose, anything that creates the perception that the administration is standing up for the rights of American workers (even at a cost of repudiating decades of free trade ideology) could cement Trump’s growing popularity within a traditional Democratic Party constituency. Politics aside, the trade talks create dilemmas for both sides: capitalmarkets in both countries have revived, as expectations have grown that the two nations would resolve this increasingly acrimonious dispute, albeit on terms that largely retain the status quo. Trump in particular has done much to elevate those expectations in his Twitter account, even as it became increasingly apparent that the nature of the deal was unlikely to do anything more than induce Beijing to make further large-scale purchases of American exports, as opposed to undertaking structural reforms of the kind that would likely rectify some longstanding U.S. grievances, such as the appropriation of intellectual property (IP), cyber-theft, and inadequate access to Beijing’s domestic markets, to cite a few prominent examples. The problem, as Trump seems to appreciate (albeit belatedly, if one is to judge from the timing of his latest tweet storms), is that he can’t afford to be perceived as weak on trade. It’s been one of his signature issues since his 2016 campaign. But confronting Beijing on the structural issues, and concomitantly causing a breakup of the supply chains that are the foundation of today’s“Chimerica” nexus, likely entails creating transitory economic dislocation in the United States (as well as further major setbacks in the stock market), hardly the sort of thing that the U.S. president would like to see happen in the run-up to the 2020 election campaign. As New York magazine’s Intelligencer columnist Josh Barro starkly puts it.  So the essence of the conundrum is this: is Trump willing to take a short-term hit among certain traditional GOP constituencies in order to secure the longer-term changes that his chief U.S. trade adviser, Robert Lighthizer, has long advocated as essential to preserve the livelihoods of American workers? Not only is there a political hit, but the very magnitude of the potential retaliation Trump and Lighthizer have proposed—vastly increased tariffs, along with the aggressive use of various World Trade Organization (WTO) sanctions to counter Beijing—also constitutes a repudiation of over half a century of American trade policy and ideology, as well as disrupting traditional political alliances with key Republican constituencies.

With Trump threatening to tighten the trade screws, here’s a look at what tariffs have done so far - President Donald Trump’s weekend tweets threatening additional tariffs brings new emphasis to the issue of how his administration’s imposition of these extra levies has impacted American finances. There are two main sources of additional U.S. tariff revenue: the tariffs levied on Chinese goods and those on steel and aluminum products from a variety of countries. According to the Trade Partnership, a Washington, D.C.–based consulting firm, the Chinese goods and steel and aluminum tariffs represent 11% of all U.S. imports. Trump said the tariffs were “partially responsible for our great economic results.” It’s true that tariff revenue has, in fact, soared. From about $3.5 billion per month, that revenue has spiked to as much as $6.6 billion. Even after a drop at the beginning of the year on weakened Chinese activity, tariff revenue stands at about $5 billion per month. As the chart shows, however, that increased tariff revenue doesn’t really amount to much of anything in proportion to the federal budget deficit, which has generally gotten worse as tariff revenue started to increase. That’s because of the impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which slashed corporate income-tax receipts, as well as growing spending, particularly on defense. But what about the impact on the broader economy? In the last three quarters, where tariff revenue has shot higher, U.S. gross domestic product has grown by an average of 2.9%. That’s good — very good, in fact — and offers evidence that tariffs on their own, at least set at existing levels, shouldn’t derail the U.S. economy. But to say that they’ve helped is, to put it mildly, a stretch. The net contribution from trade over the last three quarters has, on average, been negative. Analysts at Oxford Economics say that U.S. economic performance has “been restrained, not facilitated, by tariffs,” noting that exports to China have fallen more sharply, down 21% in the first two months of the year, than exports from China have dropped, which was by 12%. The best thing that can be said about tariffs is that they’ve helped bring China to the table. The U.S. and China agree that talks are heading toward the final stretch. What the Trump administration can argue is that a strong U.S. economy puts the White House in a good position to negotiate. What they can’t, with any evidence, argue is that those tough tactics are worthwhile even in the absence of a trade deal.

If Trump slaps China with all the tariffs threatened, it could be the US consumer that pays - If President Donald Trump slaps China with all the tariffs he's threatened, the U.S. consumer could take a hit.Trump on Sunday threatened to raise tariffs on $200 billion in goods, and possibly add tariffs to another $325 billion in goods, that had not been subject to them previously. According to Citigroup, 40% of consumer goods imported into the U.S. from China have not been affected yet by tariffs.So if the administration proceeds with the additional $325 billion in goods that means clothing, toys, shoes, furniture and electronics could be subject to more tariffs, and consumers could have to pick up the tab. Citigroup also said that could lead to some inflation in the currently low inflation environment.So far, it looks like trade talks will go forward this week after hitting a rough patch, with U.S. officials saying Chinese negotiators reversed themselves on some points of prior agreement. Trump administration officials said Monday they were preparing to move forward on raising the tariffs on $200 billion in goods Friday to 25% from 10%.Administration officials did not say what would happen to potential new tariffs on the $325 billion in goods, which would include consumer products. But some strategists doubted the U.S. would move forward on those tariffs at this point, since they could take months to implement. The increased tariffs would be upping the ante for the Trump administration, which launched tariffs on $50 billion in Chinese products last June. The administration then initiated 10% tariffs on $200 billion in goods, with a promise to raise them to 25% if talks didn't go well. China retaliated in kind with its own tariffs, and is expected to do so again.

We Win Trade War, The Communist State Falls Apart -- On April 26, Chinese President Xi Jinping said that China will “eliminate improper rules, subsidies, and practices that impede fair competition and distort the market.” If this is true, a win-win deal between the United State and China should arrive shortly, and President Donald Trump will have saved America from what Vice President Mike Pence calls China’s “predatory capitalism.” But in all likelihood, none of this will happen. That’s because the trade war is, to a large extent, a conflict over the Chinese Communist Party’s most important means of keeping itself in power: subsidies and the state sector. These practices are inflicting great harm on China’s trading partners, and the United States, Europe, Japan, and South Korea are growing less tolerant of them. If the United States is determined to halt the economic damage of China’s trade practices, it has two choices: either attempt to get the Chinese government to give up the tools it needs to hold power—an unrealistic and possibly dangerous goal—or greatly reduce economic ties with China, which would also bring great pain and risk. China’s subsidies and state sector are as much about politics as they are about economics. In a panel hosted by the Asia Society in 2018, Chinese politics expert Minxin Pei said, “China has such a large state sector, not for any economic reasons. It’s a purely political tool for the Chinese Communist Party to control the economy and keep itself together.”

Donald Trump is a business 'killer' who ‘never plays by the rules’, say Chinese exporters after tariff threat - US President Donald Trump is a business “killer” who “never plays by the rules”, according to China’s manufacturers who have been left reeling by the news that tariffs will be increased from 10 per cent to 25 per cent on US$200 billion of Chinese imports into the United States. Trump issued the threat to increase the tariffs in a tweet on Sunday, changes which were confirmed US trade representative Robert Lighthizer some 24 hours later, with the new rates set to become effective at 12.01am on Friday morning US time. “Those manufacturers who mainly sell to Europe and the United States need to start taking pain killers again,” said exporter Liao Yu, who produces bags and suitcases in Dongguan. “The cost of relocation is very high for small factories of our kind. But if you don’t move, how do you digest the tariffs? A 25 per cent [tariff] will kill everyone. Meanwhile, European and American customers are now using more suppliers in Southeast Asia to replace us. Trump is just a killer.” Another US$325 billion of Chinese imports, which are currently not subject to trade war tariffs, are also under threat, with Trump citing the apparent slow progress of the trade talks for the somewhat surprise move to increase the tariffs which had been suspended altogether since December after the US president met with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in Argentina. “We thought our products would be safe and excluded from the list [subject to US tariffs]. But Trump never plays by the rules and it seems no one from China’s side is able to contend with him,” said Gloria Luo, who manages a Guangdong-based manufacturer of automotive parts and industrial moulds.

Trump says China’s vice premier is coming to the US ‘to make a deal’ - President Donald Trump said Wednesday that China “just informed” the White House that its vice premier will lead a delegation “coming to the U.S. to make a deal” on trade. Dow futures cut losses but major indexes still opened lower following the president’s tweet, which added that “we’ll see” what comes of the negotiations because “I am very happy with over $100 billion a year in Tariffs filling U.S. coffers,” Trump said. The president’s declaration followed a tweet a few minutes earlier, which proclaimed why Trump believes China backed away from the negotiating table. He said China’s “attempted renegotiation” is on the “sincere” hope that, if a Democrat is elected president in the 2020 election, the Chinese will “continue to ripoff the United States ... for years to come.” Press Secretary Sarah Sanders affirmed Trump’s statement a couple hours later, telling reporters that the White House has received “indications” from the coming delegation that China wants to reach an agreement. The Dow Jones industrial average climbed after Sanders spoke, with major indexes hitting highs of the day. Trump’s tweet said Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will be a part of the delegation coming to Washington. There was speculation that, if China sent a delegation at all, the group would consist of low-ranking officials. U.S. stock markets dropped this week after Trump on Sunday shattered hope that the U.S. was nearing a trade deal with China. The president threatened to impose 25% tariffs on an additional $325 billion of Chinese goods this Friday. Robert Lighthizer, the top U.S. official on trade, confirmed on Monday the increase will come if an agreement is not made before Friday.

China deeply disappointed by US tariff plan (China Daily) China voiced deep disappointment late on Wednesday about Washington's plan to raise tariffs on Chinese imports on Friday, saying that it will take necessary counter-measures if the US tariffs increase takes effect. The planned tariffs increase on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports from 10 percent to 25 percent was filed by the Office of the US Trade Representative, and the filing appeared on Wednesday in the Federal Register, the Associated Press reported. In response, an unnamed spokes man for the Ministry of Commerce said in a statement on the ministry's website that escalating trade friction does not serve the interests of people in the two countries and the world. Major US trade bodies have urged the Trump administration to avoid further escalating tensions by suddenly increasing tariffs on Friday, while experts said it's sensible for China to continue negotiations in a measured way. "This is a predicament for soy growers," American Soybean Association President Davie Stephens said on Tuesday. President Donald Trump threatened in a tweet on Sunday to increase tariffs. Stephens, a grower from Clinton, Kentucky, said that US farmers are in a tough situation, and with depressed prices and unsold stocks forecast to double before the 2019 harvest begins in September, farmers urgently need the China market. "We need a positive resolution of this ongoing tariff dispute, not further escalation of tensions," he said in a release posted on the ASA web site. Nicole Kaeding, vice-president of federal and special projects at the Washington-based Tax Foundation, said that if the Trump administration follows through on the president's threat, it's US taxpayers, not Chinese taxpayers, who will pay the price — thanks to higher prices and fewer job opportunities.

China, US to advance trade talks - People's Daily Online - Although the United States threatened on Sunday to hike tariffs on Chinese goods beginning on Friday, Beijing maintained a measured approach when it responded to the latest threat stemming from the ongoing Sino-US trade consultations.Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said on Tuesday that China would not sidestep differences and is sincere about continuing the trade consultations.He said at a daily news conference that the negotiations are a process of discussion, and it is normal for two sides to have differences.Mutual respect and mutual benefit is the precondition and basis to reach an agreement, he said, adding that raising additional tariffs cannot resolve any problems.At the invitation of US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Vice-Premier Liu He will visit the US on Thursday and Friday for the 11th round of trade talks, the Ministry of Commerce said in a statement on Tuesday afternoon.Liu is also a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and chief of the Chinese side of the China-US comprehensive economic dialogue.Chen Wenling, chief economist of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, said cooperation is the best choice for China and the US. If the two countries cooperate with each other, the world can prosper; otherwise, the global economy will slow down, Chen said at a conference in Beijing. She noted that China and the US combined account for 40 percent of the world's total GDP, nearly 40 percent of total global manufacturing output, and around 25 percent of the world's total trade volume. 

China says it will take ‘necessary’ countermeasures if US raises tariffs Friday - China has promised to take “necessary countermeasures” against the U.S. if Washington follows through on its threat to increase tariffs on Chinese goods on Friday. The Chinese Commerce Ministry said Wednesday that Beijing will retaliate if U.S. tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods is hiked to 25% from 10% as threatened by President Donald Trump on Sunday. “The escalation of trade friction is not in the interests of the people of the two countries and the people of the world,” the ministry said according to a Google translation of the post. “The Chinese side deeply regrets that if the US tariff measures are implemented, China will have to take necessary countermeasures.” The post came just hours after Trump said that Beijing officials “informed” the White House that Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will lead the country’s delegation “coming to the U.S. to make a deal.” White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders later reinforced Trump’s tweet, saying the Trump administration has received “indications” from the delegation that they would like to make a deal. The precise “indications” conveyed by the Chinese were not immediately clear and Sanders did not offer further detail.

U.S.: China reneged on trade commitments, sparking Trump tariff hike (Reuters) - China backtracked on substantial commitments it made during trade talks with the United States, prompting President Donald Trump to impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods slated to go into effect on Friday, top U.S. trade officials said on Monday. The swift deterioration in negotiations between the world’s two largest economies hit global financial markets as investors faced the prospect of an escalation rather than an end to a 10-month-old trade war. Trump tweeted on Sunday that he would raise tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods to 25 percent from 10 percent by the end of the week, and would “soon” target the remaining Chinese imports with tariffs, sending stocks and oil prices lower on Monday. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, who has been an advocate for tough structural changes in China, said Beijing had reneged on commitments it had made previously that would have changed the agreement substantially. “Over the course of the last week or so we have seen ... an erosion in commitments by China,” Lighthizer told reporters. “That in our view is unacceptable.” Chinese Vice Premier Liu He is expected to be in Washington on Thursday and Friday for further talks. “We’re not breaking off talks at this point. But for now ... come Friday there will be tariffs in place,” Lighthizer said. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, considered to be less hawkish toward China, said China’s backtracking became clear with “new information” over the weekend. He declined to give specifics and said the U.S. side had originally hoped to conclude a deal one way or the other this week. “They were trying to go back on language that had been previously negotiated, very clear language, that had the potential of changing the deal dramatically,” Mnuchin said. “The entire economic team ... are completely unified and recommended to the president to move forward with tariffs if we are not able to conclude a deal by the end of the week.” A spokesman at the Chinese Embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to queries about the U.S. assertions. 

Exclusive: China backtracked on almost all aspects of U.S. trade deal - sources (Reuters) - The diplomatic cable from Beijing arrived in Washington late on Friday night, with systematic edits to a nearly 150-page draft trade agreement that would blow up months of negotiations between the world’s two largest economies, according to three U.S. government sources and three private sector sources briefed on the talks. The document was riddled with reversals by China that undermined core U.S. demands, the sources told Reuters. In each of the seven chapters of the draft trade deal, China had deleted its commitments to change laws to resolve core complaints that caused the United States to launch a trade war: Theft of U.S. intellectual property and trade secrets; forced technology transfers; competition policy; access to financial services; and currency manipulation. U.S. President Donald Trump responded in a tweet on Sunday vowing to raise tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods from 10 to 25 percent on Friday – timed to land in the middle of a scheduled visit by China’s Vice Premier Liu He to Washington to continue trade talks. The United States said on Wednesday the higher tariffs would go into effect on Friday, according to a notice posted on the Federal Register.

How Trump's Attacks On Powell Led To Collapse Of China Trade Talks - Though paperwork filed by the Trade Representative's office on Wednesday suggests that tariffs will almost certainly rise on Friday, the administration has apparently come up with an important caveat that could allow negotiators more time: The new tariff rates won't apply to goods already in transit, which would give negotiators up to a month to work out a deal before the new rates take effect, according to the FT.The clarification offers US and Chinese negotiators a window of two to four weeks to reach a deal before the bulk of the pain from the higher tariffs hits US consumers and businesses, based on shipping times between the countries.On Wednesday morning, Mr Trump noted on Twitter that Mr Liu was still coming to the US capital to "make a deal."The president’s latest tweets were posted just before the US equity markets were set to open after two days of losses driven by the flare-up in trade tensions with China. US stocks were volatile but trading slightly higher on Wednesday compared to earlier in the week.Meanwhile, in a lengthy piece purporting to explain why Beijing decided to start playing 'hardball' so late into the talks (though, to be sure, other reports suggest that Beijing had taken a hard line almost from the start), WSJ claimed that President Xi and the senior leadership interpreted Trump's attacks on Fed Chairman Jay Powell as a sign that Trump would be ready to compromise.The reason? It was interpreted as evidence that Trump secretly believed the US economy was more fragile than the official data reflected. Meanwhile, the Chinese economy has stabilized, in part thanks to a massive stimulus program.Beijing was further emboldened by Trump's professions of 'friendship' with Xi, and his praise for Liu. Then, an April 30 Trump tweet praising Chinese economic policy cemented this view, according to WSJ's sources.An analyst quoted in the WSJ piece offers an apt summary: "Why would you be constantly asking the Fed to lower rates if your economy is not turning weak?"

Trump, in tweet storm, says 'no need to rush' with China trade deal - President Donald Trump said in a tweet storm Friday morning that he is in no rush to finish trade negotiations with China and that tariffs "will make our country stronger.""Talks with China continue in a very congenial manner - there is absolutely no need to rush," the president said in one tweet.  Stock futures fell following the tweets, including Dow Jones Industrial Average futures, which dropped 150 points.The tweets came hours after the U.S. increased tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese products from 10% to 25%. China's Commerce Ministry said immediately after the midnight deadline for the tariff hike that it would retaliate against the American move.Traders were hopeful the U.S. and China would be able to make a resolution before the tariffs went into place on Friday. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He met with top U.S. trade officials Thursday evening in Washington, a short time before the tariffs were set to hike.Trade talks are set to continue on Friday despite the tariff increase."This evening, (United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer) and (Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin) met with President Trump to discuss the ongoing trade negotiations with China. The Ambassador and Secretary then had a working dinner with Vice Premier Liu He, and agreed to continue discussions tomorrow morning at USTR," White House deputy press secretary Judd Deere said in a statement Thursday evening.Trump said in his tweets that in addition to hiking tariffs he will continue to negotiate with China in hopes that they do not again to to "redo" a deal. That referred to his earlier assertion that China had backtracked on nearly all aspects of the trade deal.Stock market futures danced as Trump tweeted Friday morning. Trump deleted the original tweets, including the one that referenced 'no need to rush,' but then repeated them, adding to the market volatility. When asked about the president's tweet sequence this morning, White House officials told CNBC, "The Tweet speaks for itself ... again."

US tariff hike against China goes ahead - The Trump administration today carried out its threat to raise tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods from 10 percent to 25 percent. It also again indicated that more is to come, signalling the imposition of a 25 percent tariff on another $325 billion worth. The hike went into effect one minute after midnight Friday, US time, just five days after Trump first issued the threat in tweets last Sunday. The new tariffs were imposed following the first session of discussions yesterday between the US negotiators, led by US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, and Chinese vice premier and chief trade negotiator Liu He. The talks are scheduled to continue today but whether any progress will be made is very much a moot point. However, the higher tariffs will only affect goods leaving China today, not goods already in transit to the US. This leaves a period of three to four weeks before they come into effect, during which time the US will continue to press for the concessions it has demanded from China. Yesterday, in an effort to prevent a stock market plunge, with Wall Street opening more than 200 points down on the Dow, Trump said he had received a “beautiful letter” from China’s President Xi Jinping, and he expected to have a phone call with Xi, thus holding out the prospect of a deal. The trade talks would proceed, Trump said, but in an expression of the improvised ad hoc character of the administration’s decision-making, he added: “I have no idea what’s going to happen.” Until Trump’s tweets, the negotiators had been expected to announce an agreement ready for signing by the two presidents. The breakdown came after the US accused China of backtracking on commitments to enshrine agreements in Chinese law. The US has so far failed to specify on which agreements China reneged.

 U.S., China Lack Deal But Avoid Rupture After Tariff Hike - U.S. and Chinese officials wrapped up high-level trade talks on Friday, lacking a deal yet avoiding a breakdown in negotiations even after President Donald Trump boosted tariffs on $200 billion in goods from China and threatened to impose more. Trump described the two days of talks as “candid and constructive,” and said that negotiations will continue “into the future.” “In the meantime, the United States has imposed Tariffs on China, which may or may not be removed depending on what happens with respect to future negotiations!” Trump wrote on Twitter on Friday. The U.S. gave its bottom line during the talks in Washington, saying Beijing had three to four weeks more to reach an agreement before the Trump administration enacts additional tariffs on $325 billion of Chinese imports not currently covered by punitive duties, according to two people familiar with the talks. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin also called the discussions constructive, while Vice Premier Liu He, the top Chinese negotiator, told reporters the talks went “fairly well.” Yet several people familiar with the talks said little progress was made during a working dinner on Thursday and in Friday morning talks. Liu didn’t come prepared to offer much more in the way of concessions, one of the people said. Liu and his delegation were expected to leave Washington on Friday afternoon, according to a person familiar with their planning. After falling as much as 1.6% earlier Friday, the S&P 500 Index climbed later in the day amid optimism following the encouraging comments from Trump, Mnuchin and and Liu. Earlier Friday, Trump said there’s “no need to rush” a deal. “Talks with China continue in a very congenial manner -- there is absolutely no need to rush,” the U.S. president said on Twitter, before talks resumed. “In the meantime we will continue to negotiate with China in the hopes that they do not again try to redo deal!” Amid the latest talks, the U.S. moved ahead with plans on Friday to increase the punitive tariff to 25% from 10% on 5,700 different product categories from China -- ranging from cooked vegetables to Christmas lights and highchairs for babies. China said it will be forced to retaliate, though the government didn’t immediately specify how.

 Trump Pulls The Trigger: Begins Process Of Raising Tariffs On All Remaining $300 Billion China Imports - In an unexpected Friday development - President Trump began the process of raising tariffs on all remaining imports from China, valued at approximately $300 billion. The move follows a Friday tariff increase on Chinese imports from 10% to 25% effective just after midnight.US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer issued a Friday statement - after market hours of course - which reads: "Earlier today, at the direction of the President, the United States increased the level of tariffs from 10 percent to 25 percent on approximately $200 billion worth of Chinese imports. The President also ordered us to begin the process of raising tariffs on essentially all remaining imports from China, which are valued at approximately $300 billion."Lighthizer noted that the process for a public notice and comment period on the tariff decision will be published shortly in the Federal Register, while more details will also be made available on the USTR's website on Monday. Meanwhile, trade talks between China and the US appear to have stalled once again on three areas, according to Bloomberg - including whether the US would remove the increased tariffs, targets set for US imports which Beijing deems unrealistic, and finally - the wording of the trade agreement itself.  For those keeping track, here is a timeline of the trade war via Rabobank:

What Happens Next: Here Are The 3 Trade War Scenarios -- For once Goldman's Thursday prediction (which itself was a flip-flop from the bank's prior baseline just days earlier) that the US would hike tariffs at midnight, was correct, even if the bank's overly optimistic take on subsequent events, left many disappointed.Of course, now that higher tariffs are in play, the follow up question is simple: what happens next. To answer that question, as the US-China trade war enters a decisive phase, BofA outlines three scenarios to help clients navigate the economic and market implications. As BofA's Ethan Harris writes, agreeing with Goldman's bullish take, the most favorable outcome is a near-term trade deal, with no additional tariffs. However, the risks have recently risen that the US and China will engage in more brinkmanship. Therefore, in the bank's second scenario there is another round of tit-for-tat tariffs. After a brief period of uncertainty, an agreement is reached. The last and most devastating, if for now unlikely, scenario is a full-blown trade war. Here are the details on each possible scenario:

• 1. Benign outcome. The best-possible outcome is that the US and China are able to reach a trade deal within a few weeks, if not days. In this scenario the US does not follow through on the President's threat to raise tariffs on $200bn of Chinese goods from 10% to 25%. We also assume that some or substantially all of the tariffs that were put in place last year are removed, and that there is no escalation on the auto tariffs front. In this scenario the broad trade "war" becomes narrow trade "skirmishes" and is no longer a major headwind to markets or confidence. Until the President's tariff threat the benign scenario was BofA's baseline, and the reasoning was that the administration would avoid another round of tariffs because it understood the potential negative impact on the markets and the economy. BofA was also of the view that President Trump was eager to get a deal with China ahead of the 2020 Presidential election campaign. Now Harris thinks that it is a very close call, since both countries are on the verge of engaging in at least one more round of brinkmanship.
• 2. Brinkmanship. A more concerning scenario, which is as likely as the one above, is that the US increases the 10% tariff to 25% as negotiations continue. China would likely retaliate by raising tariffs on US-manufactured autos, among other goods. China might also clamp down on soybean imports once more: imports have been rising in recent months after a huge decline in 2018. BofA still expects a trade deal in this scenario, but brinkmanship continues for a number of weeks, during which uncertainty is elevated and there are threats of additional tariffs. As above, the deal, when it is finally agreed upon, would walk back some of the measures that are in place, including the latest 25% tariffs. In addition, since this scenario signals a more hawkish stance by the administration on trade, the US will ratchet up the rhetoric on auto tariffs once a deal with China is achieved. However the tariffs do not get implemented.
• 3. Trade war.  Clearly, the most worrying scenario is a full-blown trade war. In this case BofA assumes that the US and China end up imposing 25% tariffs on nearly all bilaterally-traded goods. There is no trade deal in the near term, and there is escalation on the auto-tariff front after talks with China break down. BofA also sees a risk of a 20% tariff on all auto and parts imports with partial retaliation by impacted countries. The good news is that the bank still views this scenario as very unlikely. There will be plenty of warning signs in the markets and the forward-looking data on the path to a trade war: more notably, Harris fails to see how the Trump administration would not be persuaded to back down at some stage, especially with the Presidential elections coming up next year. This is the same argument that Marko Kolanovic at JPM repeated constantly for much of 2018.

It’s time for markets to end their illusions about a US-China trade deal - Financial markets should abandon any remaining illusion that U.S.-China trade talks are a time-constrained, tradable event that ultimately will result in a deal reassuring investors. Near dead is the notion that both sides would inevitably compromise because they so badly need agreement for their own political and economic purposes. What markets have misunderstood since the negotiations resumed last December – but U.S. and Chinese officials have grasped – is that the talks had become just one of many events of a new era of geopolitical and systemic competition that will define our times. To earn their pay, market analysts will have to get a lot better at pricing in geopolitical risk. Trump’s decision to more than double tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods, from 10% to 25%, received the most global attention this week. His move, which was fueled by the argument that China was backing out of already-negotiated terms of a draft agreement, has the potential to be the most significant of the many trade moves of his administration. It’s a safe bet that Trump didn’t know about the historic Chinese anniversary that made his tweeted trade bombshell even more inflammatory. His decision to turn the tariff screws tighter coincided with the 100th anniversary of Chinese student protests that then became the legendary May Fourth Movement. The upheaval was a nationalist and anti-imperialist response to what the students at the time considered their government’s criminally weak handling of terms posed upon them in the post-World War I Treaty of Versailles. It’s been reliably reported that Chinese President Xi Jinping personally intervened last weekend to pull back his negotiators. Beijing appears to have changed several provisions in the draft deal, but what seems to have been most unacceptable to Xi was U.S. insistence that he agree to specific language about how China would change it national laws to abide by the deal’s terms.  In each of the seven chapters of the draft, Reuters reported, China had deleted commitments to change laws to resolve U.S. complaints: theft of U.S. intellectual property and trade secrets, forced technology transfers, competition policy, access to financial services and currency manipulation. May Fourth Movement activists, of whom many became Communist Party leaders, would have been rolling in their graves if negotiators had given that kind of ground to American rivals on their centennial. For a leader like Xi – who has staked his legitimacy on ending what his supporters see as China’s “century of humiliation” at the hand of foreign powers – the on-again and off-again trade talks had become about so much more than trade.

US-China relations near new low amid trade battle - U.S.-Chinese relations may be testing a new low. “The United States and China are on a collision course,” the Asia Society concluded in an assessment of the two countries’ relations in February. “The foundations of goodwill that took decades to build are rapidly breaking down.” Likewise, Michael Swaine of Carnegie Endowment for International Peace declared in January that “the U.S.-China relationship is confronting its most daunting challenge in the 40 years since the normalization of relations. Current trends portend steadily worsening relations over the long haul.” The world’s two biggest economies are engaged in the bitterest trade war since the 1930s. President Donald Trump more than doubled import taxes on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods Friday — the same day that U.S. and Chinese negotiators ended their 11th round of trade talks without reaching an agreement. After the Chinese left town, the U.S. announced plans to target the $300 billion in Chinese goods that don’t already face tariffs. But the widening divide between Washington and Beijing goes beyond trade. China is engaging in a massive military buildup. It is flexing its maritime muscle, claiming ownership of the South China Sea and disregarding the territorial claims of its neighbors and a 2016 ruling by the International Tribunal on the Law of the Sea. It is cracking down on political dissent in its ostensibly autonomous region of Hong Kong. And it is turning up pressure on Taiwan, an island that enjoys de facto political independence but which Beijing views as a renegade province that must one day reunite with the motherland.  The developments are a bracing rebuke to the optimists in America who assumed that China’s 2001 entry into the World Trade Organization would lead Beijing to embrace economic and perhaps political openness, that China would become more like world’s industrialized democracies.

Fed up Canada tells U.S. to help with China crisis or forget about favors (Reuters) - Canada is leaning on the United States to help settle a dispute with China, which has started to block imports of vital Canadian commodities amid a dispute over a detained Huawei executive. In a sign of increasing frustration at what it sees as a lackluster U.S. response, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government is signaling it could withhold cooperation on major issues. China has upped the pressure on Canada in recent weeks over the arrest of Huawei Technologies Co Ltd Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou, arrested last December on a U.S. warrant. It halted Canadian canola imports and last week suspended the permits of two major pork producers. After Meng’s Vancouver arrest, Chinese police also detained two Canadian citizens. Beijing is refusing to allow a Canadian trade delegation to visit, forcing officials to use video conference calls as they try to negate a major threat to commodity exports. With no cards to play against China without risking significant economic damage, Canada has launched a full-court press in Washington, which is negotiating its own trade deal with Beijing.

Report: Trump's steel tariffs are costing Americans $900,000 per job created  - President Trump's steel tariffs are costing American consumers $900,000 for every job the tariffs have created or saved, the Washington Post reports, citing experts at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.  U.S. companies have been paying roughly 10% more for steel since Trump's tariffs went into effect nearly a year ago, amounting to about $11.5 billion per year, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics. The Alliance for American Manufacturing claims that more than 12,700 jobs have been created or saved because of Trump's tariffs, which is how the experts came to the $900,000 per job figure. Peterson senior fellow Gary Hufbauer says that the number is so high because steel is "a very capital intensive industry" that doesn't employ many workers.

'Economic-Warfare-Man' Strikes Again --  Luongo- It’s getting tiresome watching Donald Trump’s bipolar presidency. It seems he can’t let a day go by without making some massive announcement to raise tariffs, threaten sanctions or overthrow a government.Every 24 hours is another exercise in chasing the Trump Reality Show around. Every lull in the perpetual news cycle has to be seized upon to create more chaos so he can validate his insanity.Trump has so many plates spinning there’s no way he’s actually thinking anything through. Take the latest fiasco, Chinese trade talks.One day “Talks are going well,” the next “We’re raising tariffs to 25%.”That’s where we are today. Because Trump thinks he’s winning the trade war and China won’t give him what he wants so he’ll disrupt global trade until he does. It doesn’t matter how many times he’s told. Tariffs don’t work. The costs are not paid by the exporter. They are paid by the consumer. Tariffs don’t shift manufacturing of the goods imported onshore, they are supplied by other countries or substituted for lesser goods. The consumer pays higher prices for end-user goods. The domestic members of the supply chain pay higher input prices while sclerotic domestic producers are subsidized to stay non-competitive. The problems with threatening these tariffs are myriad but the main ones are:

• Trump is an economic ignoramus. Who only likes to look at one side of the trade ledger.
• His advisors are all paranoid neoconservatives who can only see the world in terms of power.

Because these ‘advisors’ are who they are they all push Trump to his worst decisions by feeding him exactly what he wants to hear. It doesn’t matter if it’s intelligence about the potential for a Venezuelan coup or the efficacy of sanctioning everyone who buys a drop of Iranian oil.

Pompeo Snubs Merkel With Last-Minute Cancellation - As tensions with Iran reach a boiling point and Washington looks ready to walk away from trade talks with China, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo apparently wanted to make sure the US's European 'allies' know their place. According to Bloomberg, Pompeo scrapped plans for a Tuesday meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Foreign Minister Heiko Maas, citing unspecified "pressing issues.""Unfortunately, we must reschedule the Berlin meetings due to pressing issues. We look forward to rescheduling this important set of meetings. The Secretary looks forward to being in Berlin soon," according to a statement from the State Department that was relayed to the American embassy.Merkel issued a brief statement saying the joint appearance had been cancelled because of the "cancellation by the US side."Pompeo was in the region to attend talks in Finland, where he warned China and Russia against pursuing "aggressive" actions in the Arctic, while resisting a diplomatic push by other countries in the region to take steps to curb climate change. He also met with his Russian counterpart, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Those speculating about the reason for the cancellation have a v eritable buffet of US gripes to choose from. These include: Germany’s decision to balk at banning Huawei from its 5G network, US criticisms of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, and Trump’s persistent NATO bashing, which has largely focused on Germany's not spending enough on defense.

Pompeo To Meet With Putin, Lavrov During Russia Visit - Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov during a trip to Russia next week, according to the US State Department. They are set to discuss the "the full range of bilateral and multilateral challenges" while meeting in the southern city of Sochi on May 14. This will be the second Lavrov-Pompeo meeting this month - the first being May 6 talks in Finland which lasted an hour and paved the way for next week's sit-down, according to Russia's top diplomat. On May 3, President Trump and Putin had a 90-minute telephone conversation during which Trump says they discussed special counsel Robert Mueller's investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 US election. "We discussed, he sort of smiled when he said something to the effect that it started off as a mountain and it ended up being a mouse, but he knew that, because he knew there was no collusion whatsoever, so pretty much that’s what it was," said Trump after the call.

Brazil's Jair Bolsonaro abruptly cancels US visit after protests - Brazil’s far-right president, Jair Bolsonaro, has abruptly cancelled a US trip to receive a prestigious award following a storm of protest over his history of homophobic, racist and misogynist remarks and plans to erode environmental protections in the Amazon. The cancellation, announced suddenly on Friday, came after the original venue ditched the event, the mayor of New York City attacked his presence and major corporate sponsors pulled out. Bolsonaro’s spokesman blamed ideological attacks from interest groups and Bill de Blasio, the mayor of New York. The cancellation is a humiliating climbdown for Bolsonaro, who idolises the US and was feted by Donald Trump during a March visit to Washington. Analysts said it is a sign of the international reprobation his extremist views and anti-environment positions are beginning to spark around the world.“It is a very big embarrassment,” said Paulo Baía, a professor of political science at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.The annual person of the year award ceremony was due to be hosted on 14 May by the Brazilian-American Chamber of Commerce. Alongside the US secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, Bolsonaro was to be honoured for “fostering closer commercial and diplomatic ties between Brazil and the United States” and his “commitment to building a strong and durable partnership” between both countries, the chamber said. The gala event was originally due to be hosted at the American Museum of Natural History – but the museum pulled the event after criticism from LGBT and environmental groups. Last month Bolsonaro said Brazil could not become a “gay tourism” paradise and his government has come under fire for plans to dismantle Amazon protections and develop protected indigenous reserves.

Trump picks former Border Patrol chief to lead ICE - Mark Morgan, a veteran FBI agent who was in charge of the US Border Patrol during the final days of the Obama administration, has been chosen by President Donald Trump to lead Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).“Mark is a true believer and American patriot,” Trump tweeted on Sunday. “He will do a great job!”Morgan will lead ICE, a federal agency under the Department of Homeland Security umbrella responsible for, as Vox’s Dara Lind has explained, “identifying, detaining, and deporting people in the US who have violated immigration law.”Trump had nominated his former acting ICE chief, Ron Vitiello, to lead the agency, butwithdrew that nomination last month, saying Vitiello was no longer a good fit because “we’re going in a tougher direction.”  As the leader of Border Patrol, Morgan was criticized by the union representing patrol officers for being unsuited to executing Trump’s vision for the US-Mexico border. In November 2016, the executive board of that union wrote an op-ed for the far-right website Breitbart calling Morgan a “disgrace,” citing, in particular, congressional testimony during which he said supported immigration reform. In 2017, Morgan said he was asked by his superiors to leave his post as Border Patrol chief, and he ultimately resigned.

Trump squeezes Dems with border demands - Donald Trump has Democrats in a nearly impossible position on the border.To deal with a surge of migrants crossing into the United States, the White House is asking Congress for billions of dollars in emergency funds. But House Democrats are in no mood to simply hand over the cash after condemning Trump’s anti-immigrant rhetoric and policies over the past two years.They also don’t want to ignore a mounting humanitarian crisis.“So you create chaos, and then ask for more money?” Rep. Katherine Clark (D-Mass.), vice chair of the House Democratic Caucus, said of the White House’s approach.Still, Democrats are struggling with exactly how to confront the deteriorating situation at the southern border — particularly without legitimizing Trump’s harsh immigration stances or bolstering his argument for a massive border wall, which they’re trying to block in court.Progressives like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) are taking a hard line against Trump’s request, saying in an interview that “this administration has not proven itself worthy of one more dollar” until all families have been reunited. More moderate Democrats argue some funding is needed to assist the thousands of Central American migrants seeking asylum. The result is likely to be a weeks-long battle within the Democratic Caucus that will expose deep splits on immigration and complicate Washington’s next big funding fight. And with Trump gearing up for his reelection campaign, the issue is only going to get hotter.

Border Crisis- Most Arrests In 12 Years; Over 168,000 Released Into US; Measles, Chickenpox Found - More than 168,000 illegal immigrants have been released into the US this fiscal year - a number sure to surge as the border crisis worsens, according to Nathalie R. Asher, acting chief of US Immigration and Customs Enforcement's deportation branch.In Wednesday comments to Congress, Asher added that according to the results of a pilot program, 87% of released immigrants fail to show up for their court hearings, resulting in judges ordering them deported in absentia, according to the Washington Times, which adds that tracking them down has been a daunting task for officials. Nearly 110,000 were nabbed at the southwestern border in April, including nearly 100,000 caught by the Border Patrol trying to sneak into the U.S. The other 10,000 were encountered when they showed up at ports of entry demanding to be let in, despite lacking permission. -Washington Times"Family units are not appearing in great numbers," said Asher, who revealed the figures to Senators amid a request for more money and legal tools to try and stem the surge of illegal immigrants.  In addition to the staggering number of border crossers detained in April alone, monthly arrests have reached their highest level since 2007, according to the Washington Post.  Unauthorized border crossings have more than doubled in the past year, and they are on pace to exceed 1 million on an annual basis, as Guatemalan and Honduran families continue streaming north in record numbers with the expectation they will be quickly processed and released from custody. -Washington Post

Over 1% Of Guatemala, Honduras Have Crossed US Border In Last Eight Months- DHS -- Over 1% of the populations of Guatemala and Honduras have entered the United States since September, according acting Homeland Security chief Kevin K. McAleenan, who added that the figure includes 3% of one Guatemalan county alone.   Speaking at the 49th Washington Conference of the Americas, McAleenan said "The current migration flows, especially of vulnerable families and children, from Central America through Mexico, to remote areas all along the U.S. border, represent both a security and humanitarian crisis," adding "The situation is not sustainable." McAleenan predicted that April figures for illegal immigration will be even worse than March's shocking figures - which saw over 100,000 migrants enter the country and led to the White House shaking up its immigration team, according to the Washington Examiner. "In March, we had over 103,000 irregular arrivals of undocumented migrants — 90% crossing the U.S. border unlawfully and unsafely in the hands of human smugglers. We will see similar numbers in April," said the DHS chief - adding that a there has been a shift in illegal immigrants coming from Central America, from predominantly Mexico-based to Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador.  "These trends are deepening and accelerating. According to a recent USAID funded study conducted by Vanderbilt University’s Latin American Public Opinion Project in Guatemala earlier this year, 1 in 4 Guatemalans have an intention to migrate from Guatemala, with 85% of them expressing the United States as their preferred destination," said McAleenan. 

Congress, Give Trump His Border Money --  New York Times Editorial Board - President Trump is right: There is a crisis at the southern border. Just not the one he rants about. There is no pressing national security threat — no invasion of murderers, drug cartels or terrorists. No matter how often Mr. Trump delivers such warnings, they bear little resemblance to the truth. But as record numbers of Central American families flee violence and poverty in their homelands, they are overwhelming United States border systems, fueling a humanitarian crisis of overcrowding, disease and chaos. The Border Patrol is now averaging 1,200 daily arrests, with many migrants arriving exhausted and sick. Last week, a teenage boy from Guatemala died in government custody, the third death of a minor since December. As resources are strained and the system buckles, the misery grows.Something needs to be done. Soon. Unfortunately, political gamesmanship once again threatens to hold up desperately needed resources.On Wednesday, the White House sent Congress a request for $4.5 billion in emergency funding to help manage the surge. In a letter to lawmakers, the acting director of the White House’s budget office, Russell Vought, sought to convey the scope of the challenge. “In February, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) encountered more than 76,000 illegal border crossers and inadmissible aliens, and in March that number exceeded 100,000 — the highest monthly level in more than a decade,” Mr. Vought wrote. He described what he said were “alarming numbers” of women and children jammed into Border Patrol stations never intended as long-term shelters.Funding for vital services is not expected to last through the fiscal year, Mr. Vought said. Most urgently, the program that deals with unaccompanied minors is expected to run dry next month, requiring resources to be diverted from other programs and leading to a further deterioration in conditions.While the request is light on specifics, it does draw some important outlines. Nearly three-quarters of the funds, $3.3 billion, would be earmarked for humanitarian needs, with much of it flowing to the Office of Refugee Resettlement, the agency responsible for unaccompanied minors. None of the money would go toward Mr. Trump’s border wall. Several hundred million dollars would, however, go toward shoring up border security operations, including increasing the number of detention beds overseen by Immigration and Customs Enforcement, or ICE. This, for Democrats, is a nonstarter.

Trump rally roars approval for call to “shoot” immigrants - At a campaign rally Wednesday in Panama City, Florida, thousands of Trump supporters laughed and cheered wildly when an audience member shouted that the US should “shoot” immigrants attempting to cross the US-Mexico border. The interruption came as Trump lamented that the US could not “let [soldiers and border patrol] use weapons” against immigrants at the border. When the supporter shouted “shoot them!” Trump paused and threw his head back in laughter. “That’s only in the Panhandle you can get away with that statement,” he said in reference to the northwestern part of Florida. Minutes earlier, Trump made a demagogic appeal to anti-immigrant sentiment in words crafted by his fascistic adviser Stephen Miller: “Democrats say they care about the poor, but their open border policies drive down wages, drain social services and hurt the poorest Americans more than anybody else,” he said, lying about the fact that his administration has slashed billions from social programs to boost the profits of American corporations. Immigrants are “rough people” who are “invading” the US, Trump said. They “bring in crime” and commit acts worse than “rape.” This episode went almost without mention in the corporate media, with no reference in the New York Times. Those publications who did reference the comment downplayed it as a “joke.” In reality, the unnamed Trump supporter who called for executing immigrants was only repeating the president’s statement on November 1, 2018 that the military should shoot members of the migrant caravan if they attempt to cross the border.

A ‘Caravan’ of Americans Is Crossing the Canadian Border to Get Affordable Medical Care – A caravan" of Americans living with Type 1 diabetes made its way across the U.S. border into Canada over the weekend in search of affordable medical care in a country where they can get the "exact same" life-saving drugs for a dramatically lower price. "We're on a #CaravanToCanada because the USA charges astronomical prices for insulin that most people can't afford," tweeted caravan member Quinn Nystrom as she shared updates on the journey. Nystrom was among a group of Minnesotans who piled into cars on Friday to make the 600-mile journey from the Twin Cities to Fort Frances, Ontario, where she said insulin, the hormone patients with Type 1 Diabetes rely on to regulate their blood glucose levels, can be bought for a tenth of what it costs in the U.S.  The caravan was organized as part of a campaign launched under the banner "#insulin4all" to call on the U.S. government to regulate the cost of life-saving drugs, including insulin, and make medication affordable for anyone who needs it.  Calling the cost of insulin in the U.S. a "price crisis," the #Insulin4All group noted on its website that since the mid-1990s, the price tag on insulin in America has skyrocketed more than 1,100 percent, according to data from Truven Health Analytics, despite the cost of production for a vial of analog insulin costing less than $10.

Infuriating Democrats, Trump Plans To Redefine Poverty, Cutting Americans From Welfare - The Trump Administration is looking into altering how it determines the national poverty level, which may put some Americans at risk of losing access to welfare programs, according to Bloomberg. The move might occur from changing how inflation is calculated in the "official poverty measure" according to a regulatory filing by White House Office of Management and Budget. That formula has been used for decades to try and determine where the poverty line is and what people qualify for social programs and federal benefits.  The measure is calculated at three times the cost of a minimum food diet and adjusted every year as prices rise. It was first set in the 1960s and, in 2018, a family of four making no more than $25,900 was considered under the poverty line. This figure determines eligibility for federal, state and nonprofit programs like Medicaid and food stamps. By changing this measure, the poverty level could wind up rising at a slower rate. One proposal has been a shift  to "chained CPI", which regularly shows a slower pace of price gains than the already rigged traditional measures. It shows slower inflation growth because it assumes consumers will substitute less expensive items when prices rise. The Office of Management and Budget said: “Because of this, changes to the poverty thresholds, including how they are updated for inflation over time, may affect eligibility for programs that use the poverty guidelines.”The change is being reported as an effort by the Trump administration to make it more difficult to access welfare programs. As Trump said in December: “Millions of able-bodied, working-age adults continue to collect food stamps without working or even looking for work. Our goal is to move these Americans from dependence to independence, and into a good-paying job and rewarding career.”

US Military Reports Massive Spike In Sexual Assaults - The US military has reported a massive spike in sexual assaults, with 20,500 instances of unwanted sexual contact in 2018 - up from 14,900 in 2016 when a survey was last conducted, according to ABC News.  Most of the victims were female recruits aged 17 to 24, while alcohol was involved in approximately 1/3 of the incidents reported. Shockingly, just one out of three cases were reported to the authorities.  In response to the findings, Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan told Congress he plans to "criminalize" sexual harassment in the military. The report released on Thursday surveyed the Army, Navy, Air Force and Marines, and found 20,500 cases in 2018.Incidents of unwanted sexual contact - which ranges from groping to rape - rose by around 38% between 2016 and 2018.Only one out of three cases were reported to authorities, the report found.In over 85% of the cases, the victims knew their alleged attacker - and a disturbing number of incidents involved young women whose attacker was often their superior officer. "We've got a higher prevalence for women 17 to 24. We're going to be focusing very, very tightly on that," said Nate Galbreath, Deputy Director of the Department' of Defense's Sexual Assault Prevention and Response Office. "This is what tells us that there's something going on that we need to hone in on," he told ABC News. "It's extremely disheartening," said Dr. Elizabeth Van Winkle, the executive director of the Office of Force Resiliency for the Defense Department. "These are our youngest service members and it is e xtremely frustrating because we've been working at this for a really long time."

Trump's approval rating hits all-time high in Gallup poll - President Trump’s approval rating reached new heights in the second half of April, according to the Gallup poll, as nearly half of voters gave him positive marks.Trump’s approval rating ticked up to 46 percent, up slightly from 45 percent in the first part of April and the highest mark to date for Trump in the Gallup poll.It comes on the heels of strong economic numbers and the largely favorable outcome of the Russia investigation.Trump remains overwhelmingly popular among Republicans, 91 percent of whom gave the president positive marks in the latest Gallup poll. That figure falls just short of the record high of 92 percent approval among GOP respondents, reached in a Gallup survey in November.Among Democrats, 12 percent said they approve of Trump’s job performance, according to the poll. That figure matches the previous high among Democrats recorded in April 2017.Trump’s approval among independents dipped slightly from 39 percent in the first half of April to 37 percent in the latest poll.The Gallup poll surveyed 1,024 adults nationwide from April 17 to April 30. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.Trump has largely been buoyed by a strong economy that saw continued growth in April.U.S. gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the first quarter of 2019, exceeding expectations. The Gallup survey was completed before last week's jobs report came out.The timing of the poll also overlapped with the immediate aftermath of the release of special counsel Robert Mueller's report on Russia's interference in the 2016 election. Trump hailed its findings as a "total exoneration" after Mueller did not establish a conspiracy between the Trump campaign and the Kremlin. Mueller neither implicated nor exonerated Trump on obstruction of justice but detailed 10 episodes investigators reviewed for the charge.

Claiming two years of his presidency were ‘stolen,’ Trump suggests he’s owed overtime --Democrats running for president are weighing the idea of government reparations for black Americans to compensate for slavery and discrimination.  President Trump on Sunday seemed to warm to the idea of reparations — for himself, and in the form of an unconstitutional, two-year addition to his first term in the White House. He retweeted a proposal offered by Jerry Falwell Jr., the president of Liberty University, that he be granted another two years in office as recompense for time lost to the Russia investigation. Half of his first term, Trump wrote in a Twitter dispatch of his own, had been “stolen.” After the best week ever for @realDonaldTrump - no obstruction, no collusion, NYT admits @BarackObama did spy on his campaign, & the economy is soaring. I now support reparations-Trump should have 2 yrs added to his 1st term as pay back for time stolen by this corrupt failed coup — Jerry Falwell (@JerryFalwellJr) May 5, 2019 The argument was perhaps tongue-in-cheek, leading some legal experts to dismiss the comments as bravado. Others, however, saw the president’s apparent longing to overstay his four-year term in office as an assault on the rule of law. Trump got the idea from Falwell, who took to Twitter on Saturday to celebrate the “best week ever” for the 45th president, echoing Trump’s misleading characterization of the findings of Mueller’s probe and touting robust economic performance. “I now support reparations,” he declared, adopting the language of Democrats discussing what is owed to historically oppressed minority groups. The evangelical leader argued that Trump should have two years added to his first term “as pay back for time stolen by this corrupt failed coup.”

Trump floats proposal to cancel 2020 elections - On Sunday, Donald Trump re-tweeted a post by the arch-reactionary evangelical preacher and prominent Trump confidant Jerry Falwell, Jr. calling for the president to extend his term from the constitutionally mandated four years to six. Referring to the Democratic Party-led effort to label Trump a Russian collaborator, the tweet read: “Trump should have 2 yrs added to his 1st term as pay back for time stolen by this corrupt failed coup.” By re-tweeting this proposal, Trump is, in effect, threatening to cancel the 2020 elections and declare himself above the law. Article II of the US Constitution states that the president “shall hold his Office during the Term of four Years.” Trump’s action is a direct threat to abrogate the Constitution. Bourgeois politics has degenerated to such a degree that political and legal norms considered fundamental since the American Revolution are now challenged by presidential tweet. Trump’s Republican backers claim that Trump was only joking. But canceling elections is not something about which presidents joke. The president is the most powerful person in the world and his every word is closely followed in the US and internationally. Politicians, businessmen and decision makers around the world parse even seemingly mundane statements or off-the-cuff remarks for their deeper significance. Trump’s re-tweet of a prominent, politically active evangelical preacher is not a joke. It is a signal sent deliberately to both supporters and opponents, who will understand that Trump is serious and that he is prepared to pursue anticonstitutional methods to stay in power. It is part of an increasingly dictatorial pattern that Trump and his fascist advisers have long planned.

 Blithering Idiots Express Fear That Putin Will Rig 2020 Election For Trump - Caitlin Johnstone - “Putin” is the number one USA trend on Twitter as of this writing, which is always a reliable sign that something very stupid is happening in American media. “Putin” is once again the hysterical shrieking buzzword of the day because Donald Trump openly boasted at a press conference of having had an hour-long phone call with the Russian president, in which he claims the two leaders discussed nuclear de-escalation, Venezuela, North Korea, and the discredited “collusion” narrative. When asked whether he’d told Putin not to meddle in the 2020 US elections, Trump replied, “We didn’t discuss that.” “Had a long and very good conversation with President Putin of Russia,” the president tweeted. “As I have always said, long before the Witch Hunt started, getting along with Russia, China, and everyone is a good thing, not a bad thing. We discussed Trade, Venezuela, Ukraine, North Korea, Nuclear Arms Control and even the ‘Russian Hoax.’ Very productive talk!” So of course everyone is now in garment-rending apocalyptic DEFCON 1 catastrophe mode. “It bears repeating: We have been given no indication that Trump or his re-election campaign will hesitate to take advantage of Russian help again in 2020, in whatever form it might take,” warned the Wall Street Journal’s Dustin Volz. “The simple fact is this: Trump remains — despite all available evidence — a skeptic about both Russia’s past attempts at interference in the 2016 election and, therefore, the country’s attempts to target future elections,” warns CNN’s Cris Cillizza. “That skepticism could have far reaching consequences when it comes to just how much (or little) the administration prioritizes dealing with these threats from foreign powers heading into the 2020 election. And that is a truly scary reality.” “The 2020 campaign is already in full swing and Trump just told Putin, the man behind the most serious cyber attack on our democracy ever, that he believes it was all a hoax,” tweeted Congressman and virulent Russiagater Adam Schiff. “Once again, he betrays our national security and for what? Nothing more than his own vanity and delusion.” “Exactly what Putin wanted and expected,” tweeted MSNBC’s Clint Watts. “This is why Russia backed Trump, elevate politicians to achieve what Russia wants — to subvert and weaken democracy, surrender the world to authoritarians, like the Kremlin.”  So the narrative in mainstream liberal circles today is that Putin is going to interfere in the 2020 elections, and, because that interference will surely advantage Trump, there will be no resistance to that interference.  Only blithering idiots believe this narrative…

The FBI’s Trump-Russia Investigation Was Formally Opened on False Pretenses - The State Department and an Australian diplomat grossly exaggerated Papadopoulos’s claims — which were probably false anyway. Chicanery was the force behind the formal opening of the FBI’s Trump-Russia investigation. There was a false premise, namely: The Trump campaign must have known that Russia possessed emails related to Hillary Clinton. From there, through either intentional deception or incompetence, the foreign ministries of Australia and the United States erected a fraudulent story tying the Trump campaign’s purported knowledge to the publication of hacked Democratic National Committee emails.That is what we learn from the saga of George Papadopoulos, as fleshed out by the Mueller report. The investigative theory on which the FBI formally opened the foreign-counterintelligence probe code-named “Crossfire Hurricane” on July 31, 2016, held that the Trump campaign knew about, and was potentially complicit in, Russia’s possession of hacked emails that would compromise Hillary Clinton; and that, in order to help Donald Trump, the Kremlin planned to disseminate these emails anonymously (through a third party) at a time maximally damaging to Clinton’s campaign. There are thus two components to this theory: the emails and Russia’s intentions.

• I. Papadopoulos Knew Nothing about the DNC Emails — and Probably Nothing about Any Emails. The one and only source for the email component of the story is George Papadopoulos. He, of course, is a convicted liar — convicted, in fact, of lying to the FBI during the very same interviews in which he related the detail about emails. Moreover, the Mueller report confirms that he is simply unreliable: To inflate his importance, he overhyped his credentials and repeatedly misled his Trump-campaign superiors regarding his discussions with people be believed had connections to the Russian regime — who they were and what they were in a position to promise. Other than Papadopoulos’s own word, there is no evidence — none — that he was told about emails by Joseph Mifsud, a Maltese academic whom the FBI and the Mueller investigation deceptively portrayed as a Russian agent. As I’ve previously detailed, because the investigation could not establish that Mifsud was a Russian agent, Mueller’s charge against Papadopoulos is artfully framed to obscure this weakness. Carefully parsed, Mueller allegation is that Papadopoulos had reason to believe Mifsud was a Russian agent — not that Mifsud actually was one.
• II. Papadopoulos Had No Knowledge of Russia’s Intentions. There is no evidence whatsoever, including in the 448-page Mueller report, that Papadopoulos was ever told that Russia intended, through an intermediary, to disseminate damaging information about Clinton in a manner designed to hurt Clinton’s candidacy and help Trump’s. There is, furthermore, no evidence that Papadopoulos ever said such a thing to anyone else — including Downer, whom he famously met at the Kensington Wine Rooms in London in early May 2016 (the record is not clear on whether it was May 6 or May 10). The claim that Papadopoulos made such a statement is a fabrication, initially founded on what, at best, was a deeply flawed assumption by Downer, the Australian diplomat.

How US and Foreign Intel Agencies Interfered in a US Election - The preponderance of evidence makes this very simple–there was a broad, coordinated effort by the Obama Administration, with the help of foreign governments, to target Donald Trump and paint him as a stooge of Russia.The Mueller Report provides irrefutable evidence that the so-called Russian collusion case against Donald Trump was a deliberate fabrication by intelligence and law enforcement organizations in the United States and the United Kingdom and organizations aligned with the Clinton Campaign.The New York Times reported that a man with a long history of working with the CIA, and a female FBI informant, traveled to London in September of 2016 and tried unsuccessfully to entrap George Papadopolous. The biggest curiosity is that U.S. intelligence or law enforcement officials fully briefed British intelligence on what they were up to. Quite understandable given what we now know about British spying on the Trump Campaign.  The Mueller investigation of Trump “collusion” with Russia prior to the 2016 Presidential election focused on eight cases:

• Proposed Trump Tower Project in Moscow
• George Papadopolous
• Carter Page
• Dimitri Simes
• Veselnetskya Meeting at Trump Tower (June 16, 2016)
• Events at Republican Convention
• Post-Convention Contacts with Russian Ambassador Kislyak
• Paul Manafort

One simple fact emerges–of the eight cases or incidents of alleged Trump Campaign interaction with the Russians investigated by the Mueller team, the proposals to interact with the Russian Government or with Putin originated with FBI informants, MI-6 assets or people paid by Fusion GPS, and not Trump or his people.There is not a single instance where Donald Trump or any member of his campaign team initiated contact with the Russians for the purpose of gaining derogatory information on Hillary or obtaining support to boost the Trump campaign. Not one.Simply put, Trump and his campaign were the target of an elaborate, wide ranging covert action designed to entrap him and members of his team as an agent of Russia. Let’s look in detail at each of the cases.

 A California bill aims to keep Trump off the 2020 primary ballot unless he releases at least 5 years of his tax returns -- The California Legislature is trying again to force presidential candidates to publicly disclose their tax returns, hoping a new Democratic governor known for his clashes with President Donald Trump won't block them this time.The state Senate voted 27-10 on Thursday to require anyone appearing on the state's presidential primary ballot to publicly release five years' worth of income tax returns. The proposal is in response to Trump, who bucked 40 years of tradition by refusing to release his tax returns prior to his election in 2016.California's presidential primary is scheduled for March 3. If the bill becomes law, Trump could not appear on the state's primary ballot without filing his tax returns with the California secretary of state."We believe that President Trump, if he truly doesn't have anything to hide, should step up and release his tax returns," said Sen. Mike McGuire, a Democrat from Healdsburg and the co-author of the bill along with Sen. Scott Wiener, a San Francisco Democrat. The Legislature passed a nearly identical bill in 2017, only to have it vetoed by Gov. Jerry Brown, telling lawmakers he was concerned the law was unconstitutional. Brown, a Democrat, refused to release his tax returns while in office.

Mnuchin formally rejects Dem request for Trump’s tax returns Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Monday formally rejected Democrats’ request for President Trump’s tax returns, setting up a likely court battle. “I am informing you now that the Department may not lawfully fulfill the Committee’s request,” Mnuchin said in a one-page letter to House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Richard Neal (D-Mass.), adding that the request “lacks a legitimate legislative purpose.” Mnuchin said he made the decision while relying on the advice of the Department of Justice (DOJ). He said DOJ plans to publish its legal opinion as soon as possible. The Treasury secretary said Neal's request "is unprecedented, and it presents serious constitutional questions, the resolution of which may have lasting consequences for all taxpayers." Mnuchin's response, while widely expected, is likely to move the fight to the courts, as Democrats are expected to continue their push for the returns. Neal said in a statement that he "will consult with counsel and determine the appropriate response.” Some lawmakers and experts have said they expect Neal to issue a subpoena for the documents. Democrats may also vote to hold Trump administration officials in contempt. Democrats are expected to eventually sue the administration and ask a judge to enforce a subpoena and possibly a portion of the tax code that allows for certain lawmakers to request and receive tax returns.

Trump Tax Returns Show Over $1 Billion in Losses: NYT - While President Trump won over supporters partly by hailing his own business savvy, his tax returns reveal that he suffered over $1 billion in business losses in a single decade and managed to avoid paying federal income tax for several years in a row, The New York Times reports. Trump reportedly “lost more money than nearly any other individual American taxpayer” from 1985 to 1994, according to the Times.The numbers show that Trump lost a total of $1.17 billion in that decade. In compiling their report, The Times reviewed printouts from Trump’s official IRS tax transcripts. They did not obtain the president’s actual tax returns, but reviewed the information contained in the returns from someone with legal access to it. The Times then compared that data with results from a public IRS database on top earners. This comparison showed that Trump’s losses were more than “nearly any other individual American taxpayer.”Trump lost so much money throughout the decade that he was able to avoid paying income taxes for eight of the 10 years, according to the report.A lawyer for the president, Charles J. Harder, told the Times that the paper’s statements “about the president’s tax returns and business from 30 years ago are highly inaccurate,” but cited no specific errors. In declining to release his returns as a candidate in 2016, Trump broke with four decades of precedent established by previous presidential contenders. He repeatedly declined chances to release returns when asked on the campaign trail and while in the White House.

Trump defends tax tactics after NYT probe says he racked up $1 billion in losses: ‘It was sport’ - President Donald Trump on Wednesday fired back at The New York Times over the newspaper’s investigative report that said his tax figures from 1985 through 1994 showed staggering business losses of more than $1 billion.  “You always wanted to show losses for tax purposes....almost all real estate developers did – and often re-negotiate with banks, it was sport,” Trump said in a pair of early morning tweets. “Additionally, the very old information put out is a highly inaccurate Fake News hit job!”The Times published the report Tuesday night. It said it obtained Trump’s tax information, including printouts from his official IRS tax transcripts, for 1985 through 1994. Trump’s book, “Trump: The Art of the Deal,” was published in 1987. The newspaper said data culled from printouts of Trump’s IRS receipts showed he lost money every year during the 10-year period, for a cumulative $1.17 billion loss overall. The Times also said Trump didn’t pay income taxes during eight of those 10 years.  Trump apparently lost more money than any other individual taxpayer in the U.S., according to the Times’ analysis of data the IRS has compiled on people earning large incomes.Trump, however, suggested that his “tax shelter” tactics were par for the course in the 1980s and 1990s, saying in his Wednesday morning tweets that real estate developers like him “were entitled to massive write offs and depreciation which would, if one was actively building, show losses and tax losses in almost all cases.”He added: “Much was non monetary.”

The Art Of Expensing - NYTimes Leaks Trump's Billion-Dollar Tax Loss From 1985-1994 Decade - Every year from 1985 through 1994, according to leaked tax returns obtained by The New York Times, Donald J. Trump reported a negative adjusted gross income on his tax returns. That number grew as new losses were combined with those from prior years. The New York Times previously found that Mr. Trump declared an adjusted gross income in 1995 of negative $915.7 million.  The figures, according to the Times, show that the losses contradict the image that Trump promoted of himself as an adept and successful New York real estate developer.Or do they show an adept real estate developer following the tax law's depreciation guidelines to minimize his tax liabilities like every good shepherd of capital should?“I love depreciation,” Mr. Trump said during a presidential debate in 2016.As NYT openly admits:Some fraction of that ocean of red ink represented depreciation on Mr. Trump’s real estate. One of the most valuable special benefits in the tax code, depreciation lets owners of commercial real estate write down the cost of their buildings.The Times still gloats:Over all, Mr. Trump lost so much money that he was able to avoid paying income taxes for eight of the 10 years. It is not known whether the I.R.S. later required changes after audits.The newly-leaked documents, reportedly confirm the details that were leaked in October 2018, where the NYT accused President Trump of participating in "questionable" and "dubious" tax strategies "including instances of outright fraud" that greatly increased the fortune he received from his parents and allowed him to accrue millions of dollars in additional wealth from his father's real estate empire "much of it through tax dodges in the 1990s." As one of the authors, NYT reporter Susanne Craig explained at the time, she and Russ Buettner, David Barstow "got our hands on a massive trove of confidential docs - including 200 tax returns - from Fred Trump’s empire. We found Donald Trump received hundreds of millions from his dad, some of it via fraudulent tax schemes." But, as NYT reports, several weeks ago, a senior official issued a statement saying:“The president got massive depreciation and tax shelter because of large-scale construction and subsidized developments. That is why the president has always scoffed at the tax system and said you need to change the tax laws. You can make a large income and not have to pay large amount of taxes.” And the biggest question, of course is simple - was it illegal?No! As the NYT itself admitted after receiving Trump's 1995 tax return form's front-page in October 2016, there was nothing illegal about using such a manoeuvre:

 Trump and Mnuchin Break the Law By Refusing to Release President’s Tax Records - NEP’s Bill Black appears on The Real News Network and explains how the administration’s stance on Trump’’ taxes is illegal and what the possible consequences could be—or should be. You can view with transcript here.

 New York attorney general sues Trump Treasury, IRS --New York Attorney General Letitia James (D) on Monday filed a lawsuit against the Treasury Department and IRS, arguing that the agencies have failed to respond to information requests about their guidance reducing donor disclosure requirements for certain tax-exempt groups."My office depends on these critical donor disclosure forms to be able to adequately oversee non-profit organizations in New York," said James, who filed the suit alongside New Jersey Attorney General Gurbir Grewal (D).“Not only was this policy change made without notice, the Treasury and the IRS are now refusing to comply with the law to release information about the rationale for these changes. No one is above the law — not even the federal government — and we will use every tool to ensure they comply with these regulations to provide transparency and accountability."The lawsuit, filed in U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, is the latest example of Democratic state attorneys general suing the Trump administration. James just took office at the beginning of the year and has quickly made it clear that she's going to aggressively pursue legal action against the president's business dealings and policies.Treasury and the IRS in July released guidance that eliminates a requirement for certain tax-exempt groups to provide the names and addresses of major donors on annual forms. Groups that no longer have to include this information on forms include 501(c)(4) social welfare organizations such as the National Rifle Association and American Civil Liberties Union, labor unions and chambers of commerce.The Trump administration and many congressional Republicans have said that the guidance helps to protect taxpayers' privacy and prevent taxpayers for being targeted for their political beliefs. But Democrats in Congress have criticized the guidance, saying that it makes it easier for foreign governments to influence U.S. politics through donations to "dark money" groups.

New York Senate OKs Giving US House Trump State Tax Return (AP) -- New York's Senate easily approved a bill Wednesday that would allow three congressional committees to get access to President Donald Trump's state tax returns, giving Democrats a potential end-run around the administration's refusal to disclose the president's federal returns.The bill, which now goes to the state Assembly, doesn't target Trump by name but would authorize state tax officials to release any state returns filed in New York if requested by the leaders of the House Ways and Means Committee, the Senate Finance Committee or the Joint Committee on Taxation. Both chambers of the state Legislature are controlled by Democrats.The vote fell along party lines, with 39 Democrats in the 63-seat Senate voting for the measure.Republicans said Democrats should be focused on lowering the state's high taxes and improving the lives of New Yorkers, not going after the president's tax returns, a move GOP senators deemed intrusive and a violation of privacy rights."I find that extremely troubling. This is bad public policy," said John Flanagan, a Long Island Republican who leads the Senate's GOP minority.Sen. Brad Hoylman, a Manhattan Democrat who is one of the main sponsors, said Republicans were "misinformed" about the issue, pointing out that current federal law already allows congressional committees to request a person's tax returns from the IRS."The power of the Congress to see your federal taxes already exists," he said. "We're not doing anything new here."

Donald Trump Says Robert Mueller ‘Should Not Testify’ Before Congress - President Donald Trump on Sunday said special counsel Robert Mueller “should not testify” before Congress after signaling last week that he would not stand in the way of such a hearing. The president accused congressional Democrats of looking for “a redo,” falsely claiming once again that Mueller’s report had exonerated him of all possible wrongdoing. Although Mueller’s team of investigators did not find evidence proving Trump’s 2016 campaign colluded with Russia, the report outlined 10 instances of potential obstruction by the president and did not make a conclusion on that issue. “Bob Mueller should not testify,” Trump tweeted. “No redos for the Dems!” Trump told reporters last week that he would let Attorney General William Barr decide whether Mueller should be allowed to testify. During his testimony Wednesday before the Senate Judiciary Committee, Barr said he has “no objection” to Mueller doing so. Democrats have repeatedly called on Mueller to testify before Congress following the completion of his far-reaching investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election and whether Trump tried to obstruct justice as the probe proceeded. Their bid to have the special counsel answer questions under oath intensified after news broke last week that Mueller wrote a letter to Barr in March expressing concerns that the attorney general’s short summary of the special counsel’s report sent to Congress had resulted in a mischaracterization of it before the later release of a redacted version of the probe. “There is now public confusion about critical aspects of the results of our investigation,” Mueller wrote in his March 27 letter. “This threatens to undermine a central purpose for which the Department appointed the Special Counsel: to assure full public confidence in the outcome of the investigations.”

10 Questions the Mueller Report Doesn’t Answer - In January 2017, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper issued a report about Russian interference co-signed by three other agencies — the National Security Agency, the FBI, and the CIA — that was so evidence-free that even The New York Times said it was “unlikely to change the minds of skeptics who … remember the intelligence agencies’ faulty assessments on Iraqi weapons of mass destruction.”“We assess Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered an influence campaign in 2016,” the report stated.  “We also assess Putin and the Russian Government aspired to help President-elect Trump. …  We assess with high confidence that Russian military intelligence (General Staff Main Intelligence Directorate or GRU) used the Guccifer 2.0 persona and DCLeaks.com to release U.S. victim data….”That was it.  No back-up, no substantiation, no analysis other than to point out that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Hillary Clinton were on bad terms and that Russia hoped for better from Trump. Moreover, the report included a bizarre seven-page attack on RT, the Moscow-backed news outlet formerly known as Russia Today, for “highlight[ing] criticism of alleged U.S. shortcomings” by asserting, among other things, “that the U.S. two-party system does not represent the views of at least one-third of the population and is a ‘sham.’”  If Clapper & Co. couldn’t tell the difference between a news agency from a hostile intelligence service — or between legitimate criticism and a foreign attack — then what good was their judgment regarding other Russian government activities? But with Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller’s 448-page tome on Russian interference, surely we’ve turned a corner, right? Wrong.  Mueller’s door-stopper of a report may be chockfull of facts, but it’s also filled with the non sequiturs, loose threads and self-serving arguments that we’ve come to expect from official Washington.  It’s good on collusion, pointing out that reports of a Trump-Russia conspiracy remain unsubstantiated despite desperate Democratic efforts to spin it otherwise. But it’s lousy on interference, regurgitating the standard intelligence-community line that Russia “interfered in the 2016 presidential election in sweeping and systematic fashion.” Simultaneously, it is remarkably incurious about how the scandal began, who propelled it along, and how it all snowballed into a mega-Watergate. With that in mind, here are 10 questions that the report should answer but doesn’t.

Mueller Stoked Trump-Russia Alarmism, Despite Finding No Collusion - The Mueller report did not find evidence that contacts between Trump campaign advisers and staff and Russians during the 2016 election campaign constitute “collusion” or “conspiracy” with a Russian effort to elect Donald Trump. Nevertheless, Mueller’s report is bound to prolong the U.S. political obsession with the Trump-Russia collusion narrative, because it keeps alive the idea that Trump campaign contacts with Russians were a threat to U.S. national security. That view will encourage Democrats in Congress and the corporate media figures still committed to the Trump-Russia narrative to push the issue for many months to come. That means that Congress and the media will be diverted from the real domestic threats to democracy that stem both from the Trump administration’s anti-democratic policies and from the dysfunctional U.S. political system.The continued focus on the collusion narrative also plays into the hands of the national security state and powerful arms contractors, which have stoked the new Cold War with Russia. For senior officials in the national security state, the threat to American interests in 2016 was not only Russian “meddling” in the election but also Trump’s perceived interest in improving relations with Moscow, which would mean relaxing sanctions. They viewed Trump as a threat after he declared in his first major foreign policy address as candidate on April 26, 2016, “We desire to live peacefully and in friendship with Russia and China” and said, “This horrible cycle of hostility must end and ideally will end soon.” The national security bureaucracy has an overriding interest in keeping heavy pressure on Russia and the Putin government and on mobilizing public support and resources for a more aggressive policy toward Russia, including a military buildup for potential war and more emphasis on offensive-use cyber war capabilities.

Trump asserts ‘executive privilege’ over Mueller report in fight with House Democrats - President Donald Trump on Wednesday asserted executive privilege over special counsel Robert Mueller’s full, unredacted report and materials used to prepare it in a dispute with House Democrats, seeking to keep all those materials out of Congress’ hands — at least for the moment. Trump’s “protective assertion” gives him the option to make a “final assertion” on whether to claim executive privilege over only some or all of the Mueller-related materials in the future, according to Attorney General William Barr. The move came as House Democrats continued to press for the Justice Department to turn over the report materials, which detail Mueller’s probe of Russian interference in the 2016 president election, the question of whether Trump campaign officials coordinated with Russians, and possible obstruction of justice by the president himself. The decision to assert privilege was announced as the House Judiciary Committee, chaired by Rep. Jerry Nadler, D-N.Y., held a hearing on whether to hold Barr in contempt for failing to give Congress the materials that the panel has subpoenaed. Nadler, in opening the committee hearing, said, “The administration has announced loud and clear that it does not recognize Congress as a coequal branch of government.” “No person ... can be permitted to flout the will of Congress and defy a valid subpoena” Nadler said. Barr wrote Trump on Wednesday asking him to “make a protective assertion of executive privilege” for the subpoenaed documents. The attorney general said the requested materials include “law enforcement information, information about sensitive intelligence sources and information, and grand-jury information that the Department is prohibited from disclosing by law,” according to Barr’s letter. Barr wrote that “you would be making only a protective assertion of executive privilege,” which would “ensure your ability to make a final assertion, if necessary, over some or all of the subpoenaed materials.”

 Barr Launches Wide-Ranging Probe Into 2016 FBI Spying - Attorney General William Barr told the Senate Judiciary Panel this week that he has assembled a team at the Justice Department to probe whether the spying conducted by the FBI against the Trump campaign in 2016 was improper, reports Bloomberg.   Barr suggested that he would focus on former senior leaders at the FBI and Justice Department.   "To the extent there was overreach, what we have to be concerned about is a few people at the top getting it into their heads that they know better than the American people," said Barr.  Barr will also review whether the infamous Steele dossier - a collection of salacious and unverified claims against Donald Trump, assembled by a former British spy and paid for by the Clinton campaign - was fabricated by the Russian government to trick the FBI and other US agencies. (Will Barr investigate whether Steele made the whole thing up for his client, Fusion GPS?)  "We now know that he was being falsely accused," Barr said of Trump. "We have to stop using the criminal justice process as a political weapon." Mueller’s report didn’t say there were false accusations against Trump. It said the evidence of cooperation between the campaign and Russia “was not sufficient to support criminal charges.” Investigators were unable to get a complete picture of the activities of some relevant people, the special counsel found. Although Barr’s review has only begun, it’s helping to fuel a narrative long embraced by Trump and some of his Republican supporters: that the Russia investigation was politically motivated and concocted from false allegations in order to spy on Trump’s campaign and ultimately undermine his presidency. –Bloomberg  As Bloomberg notes, Barr's review could receive a boost by a Thursday New York Times article acknowledging that the FBI sent a 'honeypot' spy to London in 2016 to pose as a research assistant and gather intelligence from Trump foreign policy adviser George Papadopoulos over possible Trump campaign links to Russia.

House Judiciary to begin contempt proceedings against Bill Barr this week  - The House Judiciary Committee announced Monday that it plans to begin contempt proceedings against Attorney General Bill Barr on Wednesday after he failed to produce a full, unredacted copy of the Mueller report to the committee.   Barr had until 9 a.m. on Monday morning to comply with a subpoena from the committee. In announcing the decision, House Judiciary Chair Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.) said, "The Attorney General’s failure to comply with our subpoena, after extensive accommodation efforts, leaves us no choice but to initiate contempt proceedings in order to enforce the subpoena and access the full, unredacted report."  Read the markup for the contempt proceedings:

The Big Lie That Barr Lied - I originally thought this was too stupid to write about. But stupid is like the plague inside the Beltway — one person catches it and next thing you know there’s an outbreak at MSNBC and the speaker of the House is showing symptoms while her delirious minions tote ceramic chickens around Capitol Hill. So I give you: the Bill Barr perjury allegation.  We are all entitled to our own opinions. But are we entitled to our own facts? Daniel Patrick Moynihan’s bon mot says no, but Washington makes you wonder. Like when spleen-venting about the supposedly outrageous, unbelievable, disgraceful invocation of the word “spy” to describe episodes of government spying is instantly followed by a New York Times story about how the spying — er, I mean, court-authorized electronic surveillance — coupled with the tasking of spies — er, undercover agents — green-lighted by a foreign spy — er, intelligence service — was more widespread than previously known. The claim that Barr gave false testimony is frivolous. That is why, at least initially, Democrats and their media echo chamber soft-pedaled it — with such dishonorable exceptions as Mazie Horono, the Hawaii Democrat who, somehow, is a United States senator. It’s tough to make the perjury argument without any false or even inaccurate statements — though my Fox News colleague Andrew Napolitano did give it the old college try. As recounted by The Hill, he twisted himself into a pretzel, observing — try to follow this — that the attorney general “probably misled” Congress and thus “he’s got a problem” . . . although this purported dissembling didn’t really seem to be, you know, an actual “lie” so . . . maybe it’s not a problem after all. Or something. The mindless, no-need-to-check-the-record allegation against Barr goes like this: The AG testified on April 9 that he had no idea why Special Counsel Mueller was upset over the way Barr’s March 24 letter described Mueller’s report; but, in fact, Barr knew exactly why Mueller was upset because he had received the latter’s March 27 letter complaining about Barr’s missive. Now, here is the exchange on which the perjury allegation is based, with my italics highlighting key portions:

Democrats are cranking up the heat on the White House in an escalating battle over congressional subpoenas that's inching closer to a breaking point - The White House and House Democrats sent a series of dueling letters on Tuesday, as the two ramp up their fight over post-Mueller report investigations.House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerrold Nadler, a Democrat from New York, sent a letter on Tuesday to former White House counsel Don McGahn's lawyer William Burck. The letter was three and a half pages, but the conclusion was straightforward: if McGahn did not show up to a hearing later in May, the House would likely have "no choice" but to hold him in contempt.On April 22, Nadler delivered a subpoena to McGahn requesting that he deliver a series of documents to the committee by May 7 at 10 a.m. local time, and testify before the committee on May 21.Nadler, however, did not receive the requested documents. Instead Burck sent Nadler a letter, which explained that the White House does not want McGahn to cooperate. Current White House counsel Pat A. Cipollone wrote Burck, instructing McGahn not to produce the documents, "'because they implicate significant Executive Branch confidentiality interests and executive privilege,'" Burck wrote quoting Cipollone's letter."Where co-equal branches of government are making contradictory demands on Mr. McGahn concerning the same set of documents, the appropriate response for Mr. McGahn is to maintain the status quo unless and until the committee and the executive branch can reach an accommodation," Burck said.In his response, Nadler countered that "this blanket suggestion of potential [executive] privilege is entirely insufficient." Nadler wrote that "absent a court-order authorizing noncompliance," McGahn would have to comply. Following the release of special counsel Robert Mueller's 448-page redacted report at the end of the Russia investigation, President Donald Trump signaled he would not participate in further investigations, while also declaring himself "exonerated" by the report. The document itself offers a more nuanced conclusion. It is broken into two volumes: one on the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 US presidential election, and a second looking at potential obstruction of justice.

House panel accuses Barr of contempt as Trump invokes executive privilege (Reuters) - A Democratic-led House panel on Wednesday approved a measure to hold U.S. Attorney General William Barr in contempt for refusing to hand over an unredacted copy of the Mueller report on Russian election interference even as President Donald Trump invoked the legal principle of executive privilege to block its disclosure. Throwing down another challenge to Trump, the House of Representatives Judiciary Committee voted to recommend that the full House cite Barr, the top U.S. law enforcement official and a Trump appointee, for contempt of Congress after he defied its subpoena for the complete report and underlying evidence. “We are now in a constitutional crisis,” Jerrold Nadler, the committee’s Democratic chairman, told reporters after the panel approved the contempt resolution on a party-line 24-16 vote, with Democrats in favor and Republicans opposed. The confrontation escalated a clash between the Democratic-controlled House and Republican president over congressional authority under the U.S. Constitution to investigate him, his administration, his family and his business interests. The vote came hours after the White House took its own provocative step, asserting executive privilege to block the release of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s full report on Russian actions to boost Trump’s candidacy in the 2016 U.S. election and related evidence such as investigative interviews. “It is deeply disappointing that elected representatives of the American people have chosen to engage in such inappropriate political theatrics,” Justice Department spokeswoman Kerri Kupec said, adding that no one will force the department “to break the law” by handing over documents that cannot be disclosed such as secret grand jury material.

House panel votes to hold Barr in contempt, escalating feud -The House Judiciary Committee voted along party lines Wednesday to hold Attorney General William Barr in contempt of Congress, escalating a growing feud between Democrats and the Trump administration over special counsel Robert Mueller's report.In a 24-16 vote, Democrats made a formal recommendation that the House hold Barr in contempt for failing to comply with a congressional subpoena for Mueller's full unredacted report and underlying documents.House leaders have expressed support for the contempt resolution, though it's unclear when it will advance to the House floor. Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerrold Nadler (D-N.Y.) said during a press conference after the vote that it would happen “rapidly” and “soon,” though he said he is not sure of a specific time.  House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) backed the contempt resolution during a Washington Post event earlier Wednesday, and said impeaching Barr is “not off the table.” She also criticized the administration for actions that she has argued are meant to provoke Democrats into launching impeachment proceedings against the president. "Every single day the president is making a case — he's becoming self-impeachable, in terms of some of the things he's doing," she said.  Democrats were angered on the eve of the contempt vote after Barr threatened to recommend that President Trump exert executive privilege over the redacted information in Mueller’s report as well as the underlying evidence. The Justice Department followed through with the threat just before the markup began.  “As we have repeatedly explained, the attorney general could not comply with your subpoena in its current form without violating the law, court rules and court orders, and without threatening the independence of the Department of Justice’s prosecutorial functions,” Assistant Attorney General Stephen Boyd wrote in a letter to Nadler.  In his opening remarks, Nadler accused the Trump administration of “unprecedented obstruction.” He also argued the White House had waived executive privilege “long ago” in the course of Mueller's inquiry into Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election.  Democrats have rejected an offer from Barr to let a select group of lawmakers view a less-redacted version of the report in a secure room, provided they do not discuss its contents.  Barr has also declined to join the committee in asking a court to release grand jury material from the report, which is subject to secrecy rules barring a ruling from a judge under specific exceptions. Wednesday’s vote is sure to exacerbate tensions that are already sky-high.

Pelosi agrees US faces constitutional crisis - Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) on Thursday said she agreed with House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerrold Nadler's (D-N.Y.) assertion that the U.S. is currently facing a "constitutional crisis" after the panel voted to hold Attorney General William Barr in contempt of Congress. "Yes, I do agree with Chairman Nadler," Pelosi said during a press conference in the Capitol, "because the administration has decided that they're not going to honor their oath of office." Yet Pelosi said even a constitutional crisis is not grounds to launch impeachment hearings against the president before Nadler and the heads of the other investigative committees are able to gather more evidence — and convince more voters — that such a step is necessary. "This is very methodical, it's very Constitution-based, it's very law-based, it's very factually based," she said. "It's not about pressure, it's about patriotism." Pelosi's remarks came a day after the Judiciary Committee voted along strict party lines to hold Barr in contempt for his refusal to comply with the panel’s subpoenas seeking an unredacted version of special counsel Robert Mueller’s report on Russian interference in the 2016 elections. "We’ve talked for a long time about approaching a constitutional crisis. We are now in it,” Nadler told reporters after the vote. "Now is the time of testing whether we can keep a republic, or whether this republic is destined to change into a different, more tyrannical form of government," he added. "We must resist this." Pelosi declined to say when the full House will vote on the contempt measure, suggesting Democrats are eyeing similar contempt resolutions targeting other administrative officials and packaging them all together before bringing it to the floor. She did not name names. "In terms of timing, when we're ready, we'll come to the floor. And we'll just see, because there might be some other contempt of Congress issues that we want to deal with at the same time," Pelosi said

Comey: It 'sure looks like' evidence is there to prosecute Trump - Former FBI Director James Comey said Thursday that "it sure looks like" there is enough evidence to prosecute President Trump for obstruction of justice based on details laid out in special counsel Robert Mueller's report.When asked by CNN anchor Anderson Cooper during a town hall whether the evidence was there to prosecute Trump, Comey responded, “It sure looks like it’s there with respect to at least a couple of those episodes of obstruction.”Comey, a vocal Trump critic, maintained that there is "no doubt" that Trump would have been charged with obstruction of justice if he were not the president. When asked whether Trump should be prosecuted after his time in office, Comey said the Justice Department would have to take a "serious look" at that.  CNN held its town hall with Comey on the 2-year anniversary of his firing from the FBI by Trump. That firing was one of 10 instances laid out in the Mueller report as possible obstruction of justice on the part of the president. The Justice Department last month released a redacted version of the Mueller report. In releasing a summary of the report in late March, Attorney General William Barr said he would not pursue an obstruction of justice charge against Trump.

James Comey Is In Trouble And He Knows It - Former FBI Official As the establishment trots out James Comey to slam Attorney General William Barr out on national television - on the day of Barr's Congressional contempt vote for refusing to hand over an unredacted version of the Mueller report - pressure continues to mount on the former FBI Director who oversaw investigations into both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton during the 2016 US election.   During a Wednesday appearance on "CBS This Morning," Comey said of Barr's four-page summary of the Mueller report: "I’m not suggesting it was intentionally misleading, but it was inadequate to summarize that work." Comey also said that the FBI does not spy - it "investigates" - referring to the agency's decision to send in noted spy Stefan Halper and an FBI employee posing as his assistant, "Azra Turk," to approach Trump campaign adviser George Papadopoulos under false pretenses for the purposes of espionage investigating. "I have no idea what [Barr’s]) talking about. The FBI doesn’t spy. The FBI investigates," said Comey. "The Republicans need to breathe into a paper bag. If we had confronted the same facts with a different candidate, say a Democrat candidate ... they would be screaming for the FBI to investigate, and that’s all we did." FBI Director Christopher Wray came out on Tuesday said that spying is "not the term I would use" to describe the agency's probe into President Trump's 2016 campaign.    The CIA's former head of counterintelligence, James Olson, disagrees - telling The Hill's Saagar Enjeti this week "Yeah, I’d call that spying." As the Obama administration's intelligence comes under increasing scrutiny for their actions during the 2016 election, the FBI's former Assistant Director of Intelligence - Kevin R. Brock - suggests in an Op-Ed for The Hill that James Comey "is in trouble and he knows it."

FBI's Steele Story Unravels - Claims Debunked, Leaks Suspected Before FISA Application  According to newly unearthed memos which were retroactively classified by the DOJ, a high-ranking government official who met with Christopher Steele in October 2016 determined that information in the Trump-Russia dossier was inaccurate, and likely leaked to the media, according to The Hill's John Solomon.  Ten days before the FBI used the now-discredited dossier to apply for a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) warrant to spy on Trump campaign aide Carter Page, Steele met with Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Kathleen Kavalec, who took handwritten notes of the encounter.Steele told Kavalec that Russia had a "technical/human operation run out of Moscow targeting the election," which recruited US emigres to "do hacking and recruiting. Steele added that "Payments to those recruited are made out of the Russian consulate in Miami."  Except that's a lie - as Kavalec debunked the assertion in a bracketed comment: "It is important to note that there is no Russian consulate in Miami."Kavalec, two days later and well before the FISA warrant was issued, forwarded her typed summary to other government officials. The State Department has redacted the names and agencies of everyone she alerted.But it is almost certain the FBI knew of Steele's contact with State and his partisan motive. That's because former Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland says she instructed her staff to send the information they got from Steele to the bureau immediately and to cease contact with the informer because "this is about U.S. politics, and not the work of — not the business of the State Department, and certainly not the business of a career employee who is subject to the Hatch Act." -The Hill   What makes this particularly damning is that the FBI swore on October 21, 2016 to the FISA judges that Steele's "reporting has been corroborated and used in criminal proceedings," and that the FBI deemed him to be "reliable" and was "unaware of any derogatory information pertaining" to the former British spy who was working for Fusion GPS - the firm paid by the DNC and the Clinton campaign to come up with dirt on Donald Trump.

 Senate Intelligence Committee subpoenas Donald Trump Jr. over Trump Tower Moscow testimony - The Republican-led Senate Intelligence Committee has subpoenaed President Donald Trump's eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., to answer questions about his claim to have just limited knowledge of an ultimately aborted plan to build a Trump Tower in Moscow, Russia, NBC News reported Wednesday. Trump Jr. testified to the Senate Judiciary Committee in September 2017 that "I was peripherally aware" of an effort to build that project in Russia, which was being pursued as his father was a candidate for the Republican presidential nomination. That effort was not known to the public at the time. But President Trump's former personal lawyer Michael Cohen in February told a House committee that he had met with both Donald Trump Jr. and his sister, Ivanka Trump, "approximately 10" times to brief them about the Trump Tower plan. Cohen on Monday began serving a three-year federal prison sentence after pleading guilty to crimes that included having lied to Congress in 2017 about details of the Trump Tower project. Cohen originally falsely told Congress that the project was dropped in January 2016, when it actually had continued being pursued through June 2016. Sen. Richard Burr, a Republican from North Carolina, is chairman of the Intelligence Committee. "I've made all the statement's I'm going to make," Burr said. A committee spokesman told NBC News, "We do not discuss the details of witness engagements with the Committee." "Throughout the investigation, the Committee has reserved the right to recall witnesses for additional testimony as needed, as every witness and witness counsel has been made aware," the spokesman said.

Could Trump’s Jones Day Lawyers End Up in Deutsche Bank-Gate? - Pam Martens - Lawyers from Jones Day have been functioning like a Praetorian Guard around the president since the day he took office. How the firm landed so many of its partners into key positions in the Trump administration has baffled the media, especially since its partners were big supporters of Hillary Clinton’s campaign. According to Bloomberg News, Jones Day’s lawyers contributed $7,422 to Trump’s campaign while showering Hillary Clinton’s campaign with $267,899.  Jones Day lawyers in Trump’s White House Counsel office had previously represented Freedom Partners, the front group of Koch Industries, the giant fossil fuels company majority owned by the billionaire Koch brothers. Freedom Partners had quickly provided the Trump administration with a list of regulations it wanted gutted – like the Paris Climate accord (which Trump revoked on June 1, 2017) and numerous EPA rules. Jones Day had also been a lead law firm for Koch Industries’ mergers and acquisitions for years.SourceWatch reported last year that a dozen people who previously worked at Freedom Partners were given jobs in the Trump administration. On the same day that Donald Trump was sworn into office, the Jones Day law firm issued a press release indicating that 13 of its lawyers were heading to the Trump administration. Key among the posts were Don McGahn, who had been General Counsel to Trump’s campaign committee, and was now going to be serving as White House Counsel. McGahn’s Chief of Staff was also coming from Jones Day, Annie Donaldson. Both had previously represented Freedom Partners. McGahn had another curious item on his resume, he had been the former Chairman of the Federal Election Commission, where he was credited with loosening regulations on campaign spending – an agenda that benefited men like the billionaire Koch brotherswho have been setting up and funding front groups to meddle in elections for the past forty years. Four Jones Day lawyers were heading to the Justice Department: Noel Francisco (Principal Deputy Solicitor General), John Gore (Deputy Assistant Attorney General, Civil Rights Division), Chad Readler (Principal Deputy Assistant Attorney General, Civil Division), and Michael Murray (Counsel to the Deputy Attorney General). In addition to McGahn and Donaldson, surrounding the President from Jones Day was Bill McGinley (Deputy Assistant to the President and Cabinet Secretary), Greg Katsas (Deputy Counsel to the President), James Burnham (Senior Associate Counsel to the President), David Morrell (Associate Counsel to the President).Other Jones Day appointments included: James Uthmeier (Special Advisor to the Secretary of Commerce), Stephen Vaden (Special Assistant to the Secretary of Agriculture) and Kaytlin Roholt (Special Counsel to the Senate Judiciary Committee.)

Facebook escalates social media censorship with shutdown of far-right accounts - On Thursday, Facebook banned the social media accounts of right-wing InfoWars publisher Alex Jones, Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan, the alt-right figures Paul Joseph Watson and Milo Yiannopolous, right-wing nationalist Laura Loomer and self-described “pro-white” neo-Nazi candidate Paul Nehlen. According to the CNN report, among the factors Facebook considers are “whether the person or organization has ever called for violence against individuals based on race, ethnicity, or national origin; whether the person has been identified with a hateful ideology; whether they use hate speech or slurs in their about section on their social media profiles; and whether they have had pages or groups removed from Facebook for violating hate speech rules.” On a social media platform that has 2.4 billion active users worldwide, how is it possible that unknown and unnamed Facebook employees are empowered to decide who is “dangerous” or what is “hateful ideology” or who is “engaged in violence”? There is no process by which an individual user or organization can object or challenge their labeling by Facebook as “extreme” or question the process by which their account has been deleted. Far-right organizations have support from powerful factions of the state—a fact demonstrated by the President Trump’s denunciation of Facebook’s decision on Twitter over the weekend. On the other hand, all factions of the political establishment are united in their support for censorship of the left, for which Facebook’s actions establish another precedent. The latest justifications given for Facebook censorship are a departure from those provided beginning last August. At that time, Facebook and the other social media platforms such as Twitter and YouTube used the charge of “inauthentic behavior” and Russian- or Iranian-backed “influence campaigns” to shut down accounts that were, for the most part, left-wing or oppositional to US government policies.

Get Banned From Facebook!  - Dave Cohen - Recently Facebook announced they would be "standing against hate" in the future. And that future started last week when they banned, among others, Paul Joseph Watson, who used to hang out with Alex Jones ("Infowars")  but no longer does as far as I know. Once a liberal bastion of free speech rights and so on, The Atlantic Magazine heartily endorsed of Facebook's embrace of neo-facism. Material related to Infowars is subject to the most severe restrictions.Infowars is subject to the strictest ban. Facebook and Instagram will remove any content containing Infowars videos, radio segments, or articles (unless the post is explicitly condemning the content), and Facebook will also remove any groups set up to share Infowars content and events promoting any of the banned extremist figures, according to a company spokesperson.I'm assuming, as did free-speech advocate and you-tuber Tim Pool and others, that Watson's ban was due to his former association with Jones. (Jones had been previously banned from Facebook and all other social media, but now, like that fabled fraternity in Animal House, Jones and Infowars are on double secret probation.)I watch Paul Joseph Watson videos. I enjoy watching them. I even look forward to new ones. I have never seen Watson be hateful about anything.No, Watson's crime is far, far worse than that — he makes fun of delusional humans (aka., idiots like Mark Zuckerberg or Justin Trudeau). He derides them, ridicules them, ... he mocks these idiots over and over again. He's really, really sarcastic.And if I've learned anything here on Earth, it's that with humans, you can never be sarcastic enough.But ridicule is considered hate speech in the Age of Political Correctness. A crime. A bannable offense. So watch some PJW videos. Share them on Facebook.Find out just how enlightened and tolerant your social media overlords are.  Here's a couple to start you off with.

Facebook Now Demands That You Hate Targeted People Or You Will Be Banned, Too! -- We have now reached the point of total insanity when it comes to extreme censorship by the tech giants. In what actor Rob Schneider calls a “real world Orwellian nightmare,” Facebook has now issued a gag order on 2.2 billion users, demanding that they must HATE certain selected individuals who are named as targets of censorship. Those individuals include Paul Joseph Watson, Laura Loomer (see FreeLoomer.com), Louis Farrakhan, Milo Yiannopoulos and others. From this point forward, you are only allowed to post content from these individuals if you express hatred toward them in your Facebook post.This is “mandatory hate speech” by Facebook. That’s how insane all this has become now, which is why I have openly announced that every nation on Earth must declare war against Big Tech (or be destroyed by it). Breitbart News writer James Delingpole has posted an extremely important article about all this that you absolutely must read. I’m re-publishing it here with credit and a link to Breitbart News, which is also fighting for survival in an age of outrageous Orwellian censorship. Here’s Delingpole’s article: President Trump has retweeted a Breitbart News story headline about Facebook’s blacklist of prominent conservatives including Paul Joseph Watson and Laura Loomer.

Citing 'Unprecedented' Power of Zuckerberg, Facebook Co-Founder Says: 'Time to Break It Up' - Facebook co-founder Chris Hughes joined the growing group of tech experts, privacy advocates, and politicians publicly raising alarm about the "staggering" power of chief executive Mark Zuckerberg—and, in a lengthy New York Times op-ed published Thursday, called on the government to break up the social media behemoth.  Hughes, who left Facebook over a decade ago, is now a co-chairman of the Economic Security Project and a senior adviser at the Roosevelt Institute.In the Times, Hughes described Zuckerberg as "a good, kind person" while also detailing how his former college roommate's influence goes "far beyond that of anyone else in the private sector or in government" and why that's a problem.He controls three core communications platforms—Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp—that billions of people use every day. Facebook's board works more like an advisory committee than an overseer, because Mark controls around 60 percent of voting shares. Mark alone can decide how to configure Facebook's algorithms to determine what people see in their News Feeds, what privacy settings they can use and even which messages get delivered. He sets the rules for how to distinguish violent and incendiary speech from the merely offensive, and he can choose to shut down a competitor by acquiring, blocking, or copying it.Zuckerberg doesn't just dominate Facebook—he also wields nearly unparalleled influence across the media and digital landscapes more broadly. In Hughes's mind, the "biggest mistake" of the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) was allowing Facebook to acquire Instagram and WhatsApp in recent years. The FTC is expected to soon fine Facebook up to $5 billion for privacy violations—which Hughes, like others, framed as "a slap on the wrist" for a company that earned $55 billion in revenue last year."When it hasn't acquired its way to dominance, Facebook has used its monopoly position to shut out competing companies or has copied their technology," Hughes explained, outlining how the company has interacted with competitors such as YouTube or Snapchat.

Crapo, Brown probe Facebook over financial data collection — The leaders of the Senate Banking Committee are probing Facebook on its data collection and how it shares the information with financial firms to market products to consumers. In a letter to Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg, Chairman Mike Crapo, R-Idaho, and the panel's top Democrat, Sherrod Brown of Ohio, said they are examining the social media firm's policies as part of discussions on potential data privacy legislation. “It is important to understand how large social platforms make data available that can be used in ways that have big implications for consumers’ financial lives, including to market or make decisions on financial products or services that impact a consumer’s access to or cost of credit and insurance products, or in ways that impact their employment prospects,” the senators said in a letter Thursday. “It is also important to understand how large social platforms use financial data to profile and target consumers.” The letter follows a Wall Street Journal report that Facebook is recruiting dozens of financial firms and online merchants to launch a cryptocurrency-based payments system. Facebook has asked U.S. banks for detailed financial information about consumers, which has raised concerns from privacy experts. Crapo and Brown are asking Zuckerberg how the cryptocurrency-based payment system will work and what outreach it has done to ensure that regulatory requirements are satisfied, and what privacy protections users would have under the payment system. They are also asking to what extent Facebook has received consumer financial information from financial firms and what it does with that information. And they want to know whether Facebook has any data containing individuals’ creditworthiness as well as how the social media company is ensuring that its use of that information is not in violation of the Fair Credit Reporting Act.

Alexa has been eavesdropping on you this whole time -- Would you let a stranger eavesdrop in your home and keep the recordings? For most people, the answer is, “Are you crazy?” Yet that’s essentially what Amazon has been doing to millions of us with its assistant Alexa in microphone-equipped Echo speakers. And it’s hardly alone: Bugging our homes is Silicon Valley’s next frontier. Aside from muting Echo’s microphone, you cannot stop Amazon from making recordings of your conversations with Alexa. (Jonathan Baran/The Washington Post)Many smart-speaker owners don’t realize it, but Amazon keeps a copy of everything Alexa records after it hears its name. Apple’s Siri, and until recently Google’s Assistant, by default also keep recordings to help train their artificial intelligences.So come with me on an unwelcome walk down memory lane. I listened to four years of my Alexa archive and found thousands of fragments of my life: spaghetti-timer requests, joking houseguests and random snippets of “Downton Abbey.” There were even sensitive conversations that somehow triggered Alexa’s “wake word” to start recording, including my family discussing medication and a friend conducting a business deal. You can listen to your own Alexa archive here. Let me know what you unearth.  Alexa keeps a record of what it hears every time an Echo speaker activates. It’s supposed to record only with a “wake word” — “Alexa!” — but anyone with one of these devices knows they go rogue. I counted dozens of times when mine recorded without a legitimate prompt. (Amazon says it has improved the accuracy of “Alexa” as a wake word by 50 percent over the past year.) What can you do to stop Alexa from recording? Amazon’s answer is straight out of the Facebook playbook: “Customers have control,” it says — but the product’s design clearly isn’t meeting our needs. You can manually delete past recordings if you know exactly where to look and remember to keep going back. You cannot stop Amazon from making these recordings, aside from muting the Echo’s microphone (defeating its main purpose) or unplugging the darned thing. For as much as we fret about snooping apps on our computers and phones, our homes are where the rubber really hits the road for privacy. It’s easy to rationalize away concerns by thinking a single smart speaker or appliance couldn’t know enough to matter. But across the increasingly connected home, there’s a brazen data grab going on, and there are few regulations, watchdogs or common-sense practices to keep it in check. Let’s not repeat the mistakes of Facebook in our smart homes. Any personal data that’s collected can and will be used against us. An obvious place to begin: Alexa, stop recording us.

A day after ranting about social media censorship, Trump retweets conspiracy site InfoWars and a far-right personality 'at the precipice of outright white nationalism' --President Donald Trump used his Twitter bullhorn to bring several lesser-known far-right activists and conspiracy theory accounts to an audience of millions Saturday morning, retweeting accounts called "Deep State Exposed" and Canadian far-right activist Lauren Southern.Less than a full day after ranting against conservative censorship on Twitter, Trump tweeted more than a dozen times Saturday morning, retweeting the accounts of Infowars Paul Joseph Watson and Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk, who mostly tweeted praise of the President or criticism of social media censorship.   But the President also spread the message of Southern, a 23-year-old Canadian with views the Southern Poverty Law Center described as being "at the precipice of outright white nationalism." Southern, who wrote a book titled "Barbarians: How Baby Boomers, Immigrants, and Muslims Screwed My Generation," criticized more moderate conservatives celebrating the expulsion of far-right personalities.  She ended the tweet with the "A-OK" emoji, which has been co-opted by the alt-Right — a characterization which she has denied.  The President also retweeted videos from Infowars, a website that frequently pushes conspiracy theories. The founder, Alex Jones, was one of the people banned by Facebook Friday, along with his website, Watson, alt-right speakers Milo Yiannopoulos and Laura Loomer, and anti-Semite Louis Farrakhan. Facebook's decision to remove the accounts is powerful, as deplatforming has been an effective measure in reducing the exposure and spread of misinformation. Yiannopoulos has goneinto millions of dollars worth of debt and canceled several speaking tours after his removal from several platforms.  Twitter, which has been applauded for its ability to remove propaganda from ISIS quickly and effectively, has struggled to do the same with white nationalist content. A recent report from Motherboard read that Twitter's struggles in doing so are tied to the fact that an all-out ban of white nationalist content like it does for ISIS posts and videos would result in the suspension and deletion of Republican politicians' accounts.

 Trump has become a big fan of a fringe American news network which has no problem pushing Russian propaganda - President Donald Trump has become a big fan of a fringe American news network which has no problem pushing Russian propaganda — and that could have implications for the 2020 election, reports the Daily Beast. According to the report, One America News Network (OANN) based in San Diego, has been “embracing some of Moscow’s most vile fake news,” with reports on Syria — among others — that are favorable to President Vladimir Putin. The report notes that the president has hyped up reports from OANN — once the home of Fox News contributor Tomi Lahren and ex-Trump aide Corey Lewandowsky — commending them on their coverage which is decidedly pro-Trump which makes them a valuable tool for the Russians as they attempt to influence the next election. “Headquartered in San Diego, One America News Network was launched in 2013 by circuit-board magnate Robert Herring, who said he intended it as an alternative to Fox News” the report states. “Around the 2016 election the channel declared Donald Trump fans as its core audience, and for a time it employed former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski.” “The network has a history with fake news. Last year it reported that California lawmakers were considering a bill to outlaw the sale of Bibles in the state, and Sharp’s earlier work includes a segment pushing the noxious Seth Rich conspiracy. The networks recent hires include notorious Pizzagate pusher Jack Posobiec, who joined as a political correspondent,” it continues. According to former FBI agent Clint Watts, what OANN is also doing is spreading propaganda as a cut-out for the Kremlin. “It’s source laundering,” Watts said in an interview. “Then they can recirculate the story as an organic American story, and that could travel further than if it’s only on RT and Sputnik… The more places it shows up the more it looks like it’s not a single source origin story.”

"Dystopian Approach": SEC Blesses MasterCard's Idea Of Cutting Off Customers With Right-Wing Views - Blocking payments to individuals or groups by financial service firms impedes freedom of speech in a free society, journalist Ben Swann has told RT, following reports that MasterCard is allegedly on course to censor the far-right. The New York-based firm is reportedly being forced by left-leaning liberal activists to set up an internal “human rights committee” that would monitor payments to “white supremacist groups and anti-Islam activists.”“The problem is that everyone has their own views and, in a free society, the idea of a free society is that you are free to have your belief systems, as long as you’re not harming anyone else physically,” Swann told RT America.“But your belief system belongs to you and you have the right be wrong. White supremacists have the right to be wrong.”MasterCard is not the only holder of purse-strings that is mulling the selective banning of individuals from their services and funds. Patreon and PayPal have previously barred individuals from receiving payments using their platforms, due to their extreme views.But unlike crowdfunding platforms, being cut off from one of the leading American multinational financial services corporations will, most likely, have a much greater impact on the financial stability of an individual or a group, especially after the US Securities and Exchange Commission reportedly blessed MasterCard’s undertaking. By doing this, Swann believes the government granted “big corporations the ability to control what voices are heard.”

Bernie Sanders, Ocasio-Cortez Propose 15% Cap On Credit Card Rates; Visa, MC Tumble - America's revolution to a socialist, government-planned society complete with reserve currency helicopter money also known as "MMT", may or may not be successful but it certainly will be attempted, and every moment will be not only televised but also tweeted.On Thursday morning, Visa and MasterCard tumbled after the democratic party's "progressive" socialist wing consisting of Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, announced they would introduce legislation on Thursday to cap credit card interest rates at 15%, a sharp drop from current levels. The proposal follows not long after AOC also proposed the "Green New Deal" - which among its various policy proposals urged to give a generous and recurring cash handout to any and every American, regardless if they work or not, and which according to analysts would cost the US as much as $100 trillion over the next several years. In addition to a 15% federal cap on interest rates, states could establish their own lower limits, under the legislation. Sanders, the socialist Vermont senator running for the Democratic nomination for president, told the WaPo in an interview that a decade after taxpayers bailed out big banks, the industry is taking advantage of the public by charging exorbitant rates. “Wall Street today makes tens of billions from people at outrageous interest rates,” he said.Ocasio-Cortez, the socialist New York representative who is expected to run for the Democratic nomination for president as soon as she is eligible, will introduce the House version of the bill. According to some, the proposal is quite timely, and comes just as credit card rates recently hit an all time high despite artificially low interest rates, according to Creditcards.com, which has been tracking the data since 2007 and compiles data from 100 popular cards. The median interest rate was 21.36% last week compared with 20.24% about a year ago and 12.62% about a decade ago, according to the website.Rates have been rising fastest for those with the lowest credit scores, said Ted Rossman, an industry analyst for Creditcards.com. “Issuers are taking an opportunity to charge people with lesser credit a bit more,” he said. For borrowers with high credit scores the average rate was 17.73 percent last week compared with 16.71 percent a year ago. For those with poor credit scores, the average is now about 24.99 percent compared with 23.77 percent a year ago. The difference in the increase is about 20 basis points higher for customers with a low credit score. A basis point is a common way to measure changes in percentages.

Why You Should Back the Sanders/AOC Plan to Cap Credit Card Interest Rates at 15%, Re-Launch the Postal Savings Bank –- Yves Smith - Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocascio-Cortez have introduced The Loan Shark Prevention Act. Its main features:Capping credit card interest rates at 15%, which the Fed may increase if needed for a period of 18 months to preserve the safety and soundness of banks Relaunching the Post Office Bank, which would offer basic services, such as checking and savings accounts as well as loans The title of the bill is a well-deserved poke in the eye to the financial services industry. While a Post Office Bank has been presented as a solution both to payday lenders as well as the high level of “unbanked” individuals, it can also be taken as a criticism of the credit card industry. And it’s hardly radical to propose a credit card interest rate cap. None other than that great American socialist, Republican senator Al D’Amato, did so in 1990. D’Amato’s proposal was even more aggressive than the Sanders/AOC loan shark bill. He called for 14%, the logic being that that represented a 10 point spread over the prime rate. Sanders and AOC pointed out that banks now charge 17% on average when their cost of funding is 2.5%. Credit cards had been subject to state usury ceilings until in 1980 Citibank took advantage of a Supreme Court decision that allowed for cards to be marketed out of state, then persuaded South Dakota, which was already set to eliminate its usury laws, to “invite” Citi into the state. Banks had also implemented annual fees as a way to cope with the super-high short-term interest rates of early 1980s. This new way of skinning the cat produced healthy incentives. With an annual fee, banks profited from every type of customer: ones that paid off their card every month, ones that ran occasional balances, like after a Christmas buying spree, and ones that were chronically in debt. Critics of the Sanders/AOC credit card plan whine that it would restrict credit issuance to the poor.That’s a feature, not a bug. As New York Magazine noted: The bill’s broader aim is to protect low-income people from predatory financial practices. It’s often difficult for low-income people to access credit at all, and when they do, they’re more likely to have poor credit and to take out subprime credit cards with high interest rates. Struggling families often bear higher-than-average debt burdens, too, as they take on more debt to keep up with costs of living that have far outpaced wage growth. “About 1 in 5 American families who make $41,200 or less have what’s considered a hefty debt burden — defined as more than 40% debt-to-income load,” CNN reported in 2015, drawing from a Morgan Stanley Institute study. And while wealthier households can afford to pay down credit cards quickly, lower-income households struggle to do so and can trap themselves further and further into debt. As Gary Rivlin noted in a 2014 piece for the Daily Beast, it’s expensive to be poor.

New Rule Could Allow Debt Collectors To Spam 49 Million Americans With Emails And Texts --The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) under the Trump administration, has published a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) to amend the Fair Debt Collection Practices Act (FDCPA). The CFPB's proposal would change Regulation F to direct Federal rules overseeing the activities of debt collectors. The CFPB's new proposal would allow debt collectors to call consumers as frequently as seven times per week and be permitted to start sending emails and texts. When debt collectors call consumers, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) enforces FDCPA, which established rules for debt collection in 1977. Now the Trump administration wants to bring FDCPA into the 21st century, by allowing debt collectors to spam deadbeat consumers with email and text, and on a more frequent basis. Student loans and auto loans more than double from prior cycle lows Under the new proposal, consumers can opt out of receiving collection notices through email and text, the CFPB said in a Tuesday statement, adding that debt collectors would be expected to send disclosures with information for consumers on how to respond. “The CFPB is taking the next step in the rulemaking process to ensure we have clear rules of the road where consumers know their rights and debt collectors know their limitations,” said CFPB Director Kathleen L. Kraninger. “As the CFPB moves to modernize the legal regime for debt collection, we are keenly interested in hearing all views so that we can develop a final rule that takes into account the feedback received.”Once a debt collector makes contact with the consumer, the collector would have to wait seven days before contacting again. The statement said the proposal would “establish a clear, bright-line rule limiting call attempts and telephone conversations.”

CFPB plan a mixed bag for debt collectors - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau released a plan Tuesday to restrict how often debt collectors can call borrowers about unpaid credit and to allow consumers to opt out of other types of communications. The proposal to overhaul the debt collection industry would limit phone-based collection attempts for the same consumer to seven calls per week. Debtors could also opt out of allowing collectors to contact them via voice mail, email and text messages. The CFPB plan would for the first time establish rules for debt collectors using technologies developed after the Fair Debt Collection Practices Act passed in 1977. In cases where a borrower did not opt out, debt collectors would be permitted to contact consumers using email and texts with no weekly limit and without having to validate a debt before collecting on it. The CFPB said in its proposal that the industry has faced conflicting court rulings about the use of email, text and voice mail. "Some questions, including those related to communication technologies that did not exist at the time the FDCPA was passed … have been the subject of inconsistent court decisions, resulting in legal uncertainty and additional cost for industry and risk for consumers," the agency's proposal said. The 538-page proposal applies only to collection agencies, debt buyers, collection law firms and loan services covered by the FDCPA. Banks and other first-party creditors are exempt from the debt collection law. Companies have will have 90 days to comment on the CFPB's notice. The CFPB said the plan would provide consumers with "clear protections" from harassment by debt collectors and “straightforward options” to address or dispute debts. But in a win for the industry, the plan offers a number of safe harbors to protect debt collectors from being sued. A collector that submits a notice validating a debt to a consumer upon their initial exchange would receive a safe harbor from liability, as long as the collector follows certain steps outlined by the consumer bureau. Under the plan, debt collectors would be prohibited from suing or threatening to sue a consumer to collect a debt that a collector knows or should have known is older than the statute of limitations. Still, debt collectors would not be required to obtain the documents needed to determine whether a debt is too old to be pursued in court. The plan also would require debt collectors to notify a consumer first before sending information about a debt to a credit reporting agency, a clear win for consumers.

Credit union, bank groups trade shots over CFPB supervision of big CUs - Credit union and bank trade groups are engaged in yet another spat, this time regarding oversight by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Only nine credit unions meet the $10 billion-asset threshold for CFPB supervision, but a recent letter from Jim Nussle, president and CEO of the Credit Union National Association, called on the bureau to delegate all CU supervision to the National Credit Union Administration. Citing credit unions’ cooperative roots, member-owner structure and history of consumer protections, Nussle argued that the bureau should focus on regulating more problematic institutions, pointing out that less than 1% of all consumer complaints to the bureau have related to credit unions. A joint letter from the American Bankers Association and Consumer Bankers Association attempted to quash Nussle’s argument. “The credit union industry is not small, special or immune to the consumer risks the bureau is charged by Congress to address,” the bank trades wrote, noting that more than 300 CUs hold assets of $1 billion or more, and in total are larger than 88% of U.S. banks. Beyond that, they added, the nine CUs with assets exceeding $10 billion – including Navy Federal Credit Union, which recently became the first credit union in history to surpass the $100 billion mark – are all in the top 1% of depository institutions. The two bank groups argued that the National Credit Union Administration – which currently already oversees the institutions in question – is unfit to supervise such large credit unions on account of a history of reports from the agency’s own inspector general and the U.S. Government Accountability Office that were “sharply critical of the adequacy of NCUA supervisory procedures and the competency of NCUA examiners." If Congress didn’t want the bureau to oversee credit unions, ABA and CBA added, it would have explicitly excluded them from the legislation that created the bureau.

Amazon Hit By Serious Hack, Resulting In Extensive Fraud, Cash Stolen From Merchants - We recently documented how Amazon has come under fire from its merchants for allegedly trying to undercut them on pricing and products. Now, the e-commerce giant is under scrutiny for a different reason: security. Amazon is now saying it was hit by an "extensive" fraud last year, revealing in court documents that hackers were able to transfer funds from merchant accounts over the course of six months, according to Bloomberg.The "serious" online attack included hackers breaking into about 100 seller accounts and moving cash from loans or sales into their own bank accounts. The hack took place between May 2018 and October 2018, according to Amazon’s lawyers. Amazon said it was still looking into the compromised accounts and that it believed hackers changed the details on its Seller Central platform to bank accounts in their name. Amazon believes that the accounts were compromised by phishing techniques that looked for login information. Amazon has reportedly concluded its investigation of the incident.  Lawyers for the online retailer asked a judge in London to approve searches of account statements at Barclays and Prepay, two banks that "have become innocently mixed up in the wrongdoing." Amazon says that it needed the documents “to investigate the fraud, identify and pursue the wrongdoers, locate the whereabouts of misappropriated funds, bring the fraud to an end and deter future wrongdoing."

Binance Loses $40 Million In Record-Breaking Crypto Heist - If you harbored any doubts that the crypto industry is going through troubled times, then doubt no more. And if you thought we had heard the last of large-scale crypto exchange hack schemes like the infamous long-defunct Mt. Gox—the Lehman Brothers of crypto--brace yourself for a nasty surprise. Binance, one of the world’s biggest and most reputable digital token exchanges, has just reported what appears to be its largest hack to date. In a post on the company’s site on Tuesday, CEO Changpeng Zhao, fondly known as CZ, has revealed how hackers targeted a single account and spirited off 7,000 bitcoin, worth ~$40.8 million at the current price of $5,828.Binance has suspended all withdrawals for at least a week. CZ paints a picture of a well-orchestrated premeditated attack, planned and executed by hackers who had the patience and skill to tap into multiple seemingly independent accounts at the most opportune time.The culprits employed a variety of hacking tactics including phishing attacks and viruses to secure a large number of 2FA codes and API keys and also access the exchange’s ‘hot wallet’—an online storage that holds about 2 percent of its assets.In a more recent YouTube update, CZ says they are unsure of the actual number of users affected, and cleaning up their systems to eradicate any trace of the hackers is going to be a painstaking process. Consequently, he has begged customers for forgiveness for suspending withdrawals. And now to the million-dollar question: can affected customers expect any kind of recompense from the company? After all, 7,000 BTC is hardly chump change, and the fact that it all came from a single account suggests that it most likely belonged to an institutional investor/trader or a bitcoin whale.

JPMorgan Hit With Historic Lawsuit That Could Wreak Havoc On The Leveraged Loan Market - Ask any banker (or analyst) what the difference is between a junk bond and a loan, and you'll most likely get a blank start in response: starting with the size of the loan market, which is now virtually identical to that of the high yield bond market, continuing through the standardization of loan terms, the growth of secondary trading, and all the way through to "protections" granted to loan investors, which in an age of exclusively covenant-lite issuance, no longer exist, and one can argue that at least superficially, a loan is effectively the same as a junk bond. And yet, there is one critical difference between the two: junk bonds are securities, while  loans aren't. That difference, however, may not be true for much longer. As Bloomberg reports, a group suing JPMorgan Chase and other banks over a loan that went sour four years ago is alleging the underwriters engaged in securities fraud. If successful, the article contends correctly, the lawsuit will "radically transform the $1.2 trillion leveraged lending market" because should the plaintiff ultimately prevail in arguing that loans are de facto securities, it would dramatically alter how American companies raise debt, according to two industry groups that filed a brief supporting the defendants’ argument last week. “There are absolutely enormous market consequences if a court determines that leveraged loans are securities,” J. Paul Forrester, a partner at Mayer Brown told Bloomberg. "Leveraged loans and lenders would be potentially subject to the same offering and disclosure requirements as securities and would face the same regulatory oversight and enforcement consequences." The lawsuit stems from a $1.8 billion loan that JPMorgan, together with Bank of Montreal, Citigroup Inc. and SunTrust Banks, arranged  in 2014 for Millennium Health LLC, then owned by private equity firm TA Associates, and which was sold to investors the same year. However, as Bloomberg reports, within just a few months, lenders saw the value of their loan plunge as the company disclosed that federal authorities were investigating their billing practices. Millennium quietly agreed to pay $256 million to resolve the probe, and then filed for bankruptcy.And here's why JPMorgan may be at fault: the bank knew officials were investigating Millennium when it sold the loan, but didn’t tell investors who were about to buy the debt, as Bloomberg reported in 2015. The bankers did not provide the information because Millennium told them it wasn’t material at the time; additionally since a loan is technically not a securities that is subject to the SEC Act, JPMorgan also did not have explicit underwriter diligence responsibilities to disclose everything that it knew about the issuing company as the assumption is the buyer is sophisticated enough to do their own due diligence.

The Chickenshit Club accepts another member --Roger Gathmann - There's a book about the Obama administration's failure to prosecute bankers and other wealthy people for crimes they committed in the runup to 2008 - and even for crimes like laundering money for the cocaine cartels, for which Wachovia bank was given a big fine rather than jailtime for the CEO. Jesse Eisinger wrote a book about it called the Chickenshit Club. Basically, the rationale was that punishing the institutions that committed and profited from crimes to the full extent of the law would threaten the existence of these institutions, which, it was further argued, would spread too much collateral damage. The exemplary instance was the punishment suffered by Arthur Anderson, which put that accounting firm out of business. Many 200 thou plus accountants spent weeks hunting for jobs, and many of them couldn't pay the docking fees at their yacht clubs.Obama's Justice department swallowed the "chickenshit" method hook, line, and sinker. Take HSBC bank. Investigators found that it helped transfer funds from Saudi Arabia to Al Qaeda, that it laundered billions of dollars for the drug cartels in Mexico, etc, etc. Here's a story about what happened next (from the New Yorker):"With four thousand offices in seventy countries and some forty million customers, HSBC is a sprawling organization. But, in the judgment of the Senate investigators, all this wrongdoing was too systemic to be a matter of mere negligence. Senator Carl Levin, who headed the investigation, declared, “This is something that people knew was going on at that bank.” Half a dozen HSBC executives were summoned to Capitol Hill for a ritual display of chastisement. Stuart Gulliver, the bank’s C.E.O., said that he was “profoundly sorry.” Another executive, who had been in charge of compliance, announced during his testimony that he would resign. Few observers would have described the banking sector as a hotbed of ethical compunction, but even by the jaundiced standards of the industry HSBC’s transgressions were extreme. Lanny Breuer, a senior official at the Department of Justice, promised that HSBC would be “held accountable.”What Breuer delivered, however, was the sort of velvet accountability to which large banks have grown accustomed: no criminal charges were filed, and no executives or employees were prosecuted for trafficking in dirty money. Instead, HSBC pledged to clean up its institutional culture, and to pay a fine of nearly two billion dollars: a penalty that sounded hefty but was only the equivalent of four weeks’ profit for the bank.

The Fed’s Lael Brainard stands alone — When Federal Reserve Gov. Lael Brainard voted against a proposal in April 2018 to modify a key capital measure for the largest banks, her dissent was a milestone. It was the first time a member of the Fed's board had recorded a "no" vote on regulatory policy in over six years. It was not her last dissent, either. In the past year, Brainard has opposed six measures adopted by the board. One governor cannot block matters before the central bank, but dissents are noteworthy at an agency known for consensus. From 2006 to 2010, all but four of the 861 votes by the board of governors were unanimous, according to data obtained by Politico in 2013 through a Freedom of Information Act request. The "no" votes cast by Brainard, who was appointed to the board by President Barack Obama in 2014, suggest a protest against recent regulatory relief polices from those who helped write the post-crisis rules. Brainard's dissents have also boosted her own profile. They come at a time when the Trump administration signals interest in having a stronger hand over the Fed and in nominating anti-establishment candidates for open Fed board seats. “One might ask why we care what Brainard thinks. She’s the 1 in a losing 4-1 vote,” said Ian Katz, an analyst at Capital Alpha Partners, in an April 8 research note. “The bluntest answer is that if a Democrat wins next year’s presidential election, Brainard would likely be a candidate for Fed chair or Treasury secretary.” Her vote last year to oppose easing the "supplementary leverage ratio" — one of the strongest tools regulators use to measure the largest banks' capital adequacy — was followed by her dissenting from an October vote on providing relief for domestic banks with between $100 billion and $250 billion of assets. In March, Brainard opposed both the board's decision not to deploy a countercyclical capital buffer and a vote to limit the use of the "qualitative objection" in stress tests. In April, she also opposed proposals to ease standards for foreign banks and large-bank resolution plans.  In statements at Fed board meetings, Brainard has argued that recent proposals go farther than the statutory mandate set by last year's reg relief law, and weaken tools that have been beneficial since the crisis. She said the proposals unveiled in October to modify supervisory standards for large banks "weaken the buffers that are core to the resilience of our system." (No one at the Fed commented for this article.) "In short, I see little benefit to the institutions or the system from the proposed reduction in core resilience that could justify the increased risk to financial stability and the taxpayer," she said at the October meeting.

U.S. Recession Would Spur ‘Massive’ Corporate Bond Losses, Eisman Says -The U.S. corporate debt market will suffer “massive losses” if the world’s biggest economy falls into recession, said Steve Eisman, the Neuberger Berman Group money manager who famously predicted the collapse of subprime mortgages before the 2008 financial crisis.While the U.S. financial system is strong, “that doesn’t mean we won’t have a recession,” Eisman said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Hong Kong on Thursday. “And in a recession I think there will be massive losses in the bond markets because there’s a lack of liquidity.”“You will see big losses in things like triple-B corporate debt, high-yield etcetera, but you need a recession first,” he said. “Corporate debt isn’t going to cause the next recession, but it’s where the pain will be in the next recession.”Eisman’s early bets against the housing market before the 2008 crisis were chronicled in Michael Lewis’s 2010 book “The Big Short,” which highlighted money managers who profited from the market turmoil. A character based on him was played by Steve Carell in the movie adaptation of the book.

Reg relief on living wills is a 'negative' for megabanks, Fitch says - A proposal by federal regulators that would allow megabanks to file resolution plans less often would be a negative credit event for those institutions, Fitch Ratings said Monday. The note by Fitch suggested there is value in having global systemically important banks submit plans each year. “As regulatory requirements continue to ease on the margin for the largest banks, risks inherent to their complexity can be further exacerbated by the loss of comparative data from annual resolution planning and stress testing data,” Fitch analysts said. The Federal Reserve and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. issued a proposal last month to extend the living will deadlines for GSIBs from one year to every other year depending on the intuition’s size and risk categories. In general, the largest banks in the first category would submit resolution plans every two years starting July 1, alternating between full and “targeted” plans, which focus mainly on capital and liquidity. The second and third category banks would file living wills every three years, also alternating between full and targeted plans. The regulators can still require a resolution plan from any bank going through bankruptcy or financial distress at any time. However, Fitch said another area of concern in the proposal is the ability for banks that previously submitted plans to get a waiver from having to file certain information. “This could further impede historical and peer analysis of banks, especially with GSIBs only filing full resolution plans every four years, with other systemically important banks filing full plans every six years,” Fitch said in the note. Subscribe

On climate risk, U.S. regulators at odds with global counterparts - Should banking regulators require banks they supervise to stress test their loan and investment portfolios for any risks associated with climate change? It’s a question being debated among bankers, regulators and shareholder groups worldwide amid increasingly dire reports that the planet is warming, but there is broad disagreement about how far regulators should go. Central banks abroad have formed working groups to examine global warming’s risks to the financial system and some, including the Bank of England, are considering incorporating the impact of higher temperatures into their evaluations of banks’ loan books. If rising sea levels threaten coastal property values or persistent drought conditions pose risks to agricultural loan portfolios, the thinking goes, then regulators and investors ought to know about it. Here in the U.S., though, the idea of stress-testing for climate risk appears to be a bridge too far. The three federal banking agencies were asked by Congress earlier this year what steps they were taking to mitigate risks posed by climate change, and their responses made clear that, while they encourage banks to plan for disasters that could interrupt their businesses, they have no plans to require banks to impose climate-related stress tests. The responses from the Federal Reserve, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. disappointed Lauren Compere, the managing director of Boston Common Asset Management, an investor firm that focuses on environmental and social responsibility. The firm holds large investments in dozens of banks in the U.S. and abroad. “U.S. regulators are sitting on the fence. They’re not going to take the lead in addressing this issue,” Compere said in an interview Wednesday. “Every other country in the world, including regulators and bank supervisors, are taking a much more advanced approach than the U.S. I will say I’m not surprised at the response, but if I were in Congress, I wouldn’t be satisfied.”

Midwest Banks Hit Hard By Surge In US Farmer Bankruptcies - U.S. farmers are defaulting and missing payments at alarming rates, forcing regional banks to restructure and refinance existing loans, according to Bloomberg. Regional banks, although still considered "healthy" for the most part, are requiring farmers to post increased collateral to "boost their defenses" against additional looming losses and default risks, further depressing US farm production while putting even more loans in danger of default.According to a report by First Midwest Bank, past-due agricultural loans have soared 287% in 2018 vs the prior year. Additionally, cases handled by the Iowa Mediation Service involving farmers unable to make payments. jumped 20%. In six Midwest states, farmer bankruptcies rose 30% to 103 in 2018. This has caused banks like Farmers National Bank in Prophetstown, Illinois to restructure more loans in order to keep growers solvent while at the same time limiting their own risk.Don Vogel, the bank’s president and chief executive officer said: "when you’re a rural community bank, if you’re not involved in agriculture, you probably don’t have a future." Farmer loans make up 79% of his bank's portfolio and include "probably three generations" of farmers. He continued: "It is a long rough patch and it’s probably going to last longer. There’s not one little thing that you can neglect during these times." According to a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, conditions that prompted lenders to ask for more collateral were up 2.5% in Q4 2018. Meanwhile, the average interest rate on farm operating loans moved up to 6.07%, the highest level since Q2 2010.

Interest-Only Issuance Has Skyrocketed, But Is It Time To Worry Yet?  - A larger volume of CMBS loans are being issued with interest-only (I0) structures, but this rise may put the CMBS market in a dicey position when the economy reaches its next downturn. To put things in perspective, interest-only loan issuance reached $19.5 billion in Q3 2018, six times greater than fully amortizing loan issuance. In comparison, nearly 80% of all CMBS issued in the FY 2006 and FY 2007 was either interest-only or partially interest-only loans. In theory, the popularity of interest-only loans makes sense, because they provide lower debt service payments and free up cash flow for borrowers. But these benefits are partially offset by some additional risks in the interest-only structure, with the borrower's inability to deleverage during the loan's life perhaps being the biggest concern. Additionally, borrowers who opt for a partial interest-only structure incur a built-in "payment shock" when the payments switch from interest-only to principal and interest. Why are we seeing a spike in interest-only issuance if the loans are inherently riskier than fully amortizing loans? Commercial real estate values are at all-time highs; interest rates are still historically low; expectations for future economic and rent growth are fundamentally sound, and competition for loans on stabilized, income-producing properties is higher than ever. Furthermore, the refinancing pipeline is miniscule compared to the 2015-2017Wall of Maturities, so more capital is chasing fewer deals. This causes lenders to augment loan proceeds and loosen underwriting parameters, including offering more interest-only deals. Prior to the 2008 recession, the CMBS market experienced a similar upward trend in interest-only issuance. By 02 2006, interest-only loans represented 57.6% of new issuance, out­pacing fully amortizing notes by 38.86%. The difference in issuance between interest-only and fully amortizing loans continued to widen as the market approached the recession, eventually reaching a point where interest-only debt repre­sented 78.8% of new issuance in 01 2007. Interest-only loans have historically been more suscep­tible to delinquency when the economy falters. Immedi­ately following the recession, delinquency rates across all CMBS loans moved upward. Once the economy began to show signs of recovery, the delinquency rate for fully am­ortized loans began to decline, while interest-only and par­tially interest-only delinquencies continued to rise. In July 2012, the delinquency rate for fully amortizing loans was sitting at 5.07% while the interest-only reading reached 14.15%.  Many of the borrowers were unable to meet their payments due to significant declines in property prices paired with loan bal­ances that had never amortized.

Ginnie Mae asks mortgage lenders how to protect MBS from prepayments -- Alarmed about continued high nonmarket-based prepayment rates, Ginnie Mae is requesting input from lenders on how to make the mortgage-backed securities it guarantees fairer to investors without hurting borrowers. Over about the last year and a half, Ginnie tried to put rules in place for the Veterans Affairs mortgage program that would curb cash-out refinancings. In January, Ginnie restricted loanDepot's ability to securitize VA mortgages altogether due to churning recent originations; it previously took similar action against other lenders. Borrowers, no matter the loan type, have the ability to prepay whenever they want without penalty. Typically, they happen more when rates fall, someone moves, or refinances to take cash out when they have equity. However, the VA loan program has more flexibility around prepayments and because of that Ginnie's dealt with unpredictable behavior in market pricing, leading to a higher cost of homeownership for the borrowers. Ginnie's intent is to make changes within their guidelines to ensure the highest price possible for all mortgages in their MBS pools. Given the differences compared to FHA and GSEs, the agency is evaluating excluding or restricting VA cash-out refinances from its multi-issuer pools. "Protecting the value of our securities and, thereby, the borrowers Ginnie Mae serves, is paramount and, as such, modifications to our pooling parameters are under consideration," Maren Kasper, Ginnie Mae's acting president, said in a press release. "This [request for input] enables the agency to take views from a wide variety of stakeholders under consideration as we work to eradicate abnormal prepayment patterns that are negatively impacting the performance of the Ginnie Mae MBS program." 

Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for March: National Delinquency Rate Nearing Record Low - Black Knight released their Mortgage Monitor report for March today. According to Black Knight, 3.65% of mortgages were delinquent in March, down from 3.73% in March 2018. Black Knight also reported that 0.51% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 0.63% a year ago. This gives a total of 4.16% delinquent or in foreclosure. Press Release: Black Knight: Servicers Retained Just 18% of Customers Post-Refinance in Q1 2019, a 13-Year Low; Slight Rate Increase Reduces Refinanceable Population by 1 Million Today, the Data & Analytics division of Black Knight, Inc. released its latest Mortgage Monitor Report, based upon the company’s industry-leading mortgage performance, housing and public records datasets. This month, by leveraging its McDash loan-level mortgage performance data in combination with public property records, Black Knight undertook an analysis of mortgage servicer retention rates by looking at consecutive mortgages on a single property before and after a refinance transaction. “In Q1 2019, fewer than one in five homeowners remained with their prior mortgage servicer after refinancing their first lien,” said Graboske. “That is the lowest retention rate we’ve seen since Black Knight began tracking the metric in 2005. Anyone in this industry can tell you that customer retention is key – not only to success, but to survival. The challenge is that everyone is competing for a piece of a shrinking refinance market, the size of which is incredibly rate-sensitive, and therefore volatile in its make-up. Just a month ago, we were reporting that recent rate reductions had swelled the population of eligible refinance candidates by more than half in a single week after hitting a multi-year low just a few months before. Then, with just a slight increase in the 30-year fixed rate – less than one-eighth of a point – 1 million homeowners lost their rate incentive to refinance – almost 20% of the total eligible market.” Here is a graph from the Mortgage Monitor that shows the Q1 90 day National delinquency inventory over time:
• 90-day delinquencies are down 4% YTD in 2019 and have fallen below 500K for the first time since 2006
• With the national delinquency rate just 0.17% above the all-time low in March 2005, we may well be on pace to a new record low if external impacts on performance subside
The second graph shows foreclosure sales over time:
• Foreclosure sales fell below 39K in Q1 2019 for the first time on record dating back to 2000
• Q1 2019's foreclosure sales represented roughly 14% of starting foreclosure inventory
• Declines in foreclosure sales have broadly kept pace with the overall decline in active foreclosure inventory nationwide
• Florida led all states with 3.5K foreclosure sales for the quarter followed by New York and New Jersey at 2.4K each

Critics say HUD bid to restrict down payment programs skirts law — Two nonprofits that provide down payment assistance on a national scale are not backing down in the face of a new federal policy that they say could drive them out of business. The National Homebuyers Fund and the Chenoa Fund, the latter of which is fighting the policy in court, say the Department of Housing and Urban Development tried to avoid scrutiny last month when it imposed new restrictions outside a formal rulemaking process. HUD's mere letter to lenders seeking to "clarify" preexisting rules could threaten the funds' very existence, they say. The Chenoa Fund's lead financial backers essentially walked away the day HUD issued the letter, said Helgi Walker, the nonprofit's lead counsel. "Scores of loans that were set to close were put on hold,” she said. “That is not what happens when an agency has merely issued some helpful tips.” Both groups say HUD ran afoul of the Administrative Procedure Act, which requires significant policy changes to be subject to a notice-and-comment process. HUD originally said the letter, which was meant to provide more clarity about a 2012 rule, took effect immediately. But then, after Chenoa filed its lawsuit, HUD delayed implementation by 90 days. The HUD policy requires nonprofits to prove they operate only within their geographic area, allowing a fund to have a broader reach only if it is authorized by each local government authority where it backs loans. The guidance is a non-issue for and may help state housing finance agencies that have relatively small footprints yet provide most government down payment assistance. But the Chenoa Fund and National Homebuyers Fund say the letter requires them to seek formal permission from all the different jurisdictions where they operate, which is not feasible. They warn that constraining their operations so they help borrowers only in their immediate geographic area would undermine their missions. “In the end, the consumer gets hurt,” 

Multifamily lenders balk at N.Y.’s proposed tenant-friendly reforms - Housing advocates and Democratic lawmakers in New York want to create more protections for tenants of rent-controlled apartments, but they are facing stiff opposition from property owners and the banks that lend to them. Several proposals aimed at putting a lid on rapidly rising rents are under consideration in the state Legislature, including one that would abolish a provision that lets landlords raise rents on apartments by as much as 20% when they become vacant. A common complaint about the provision is that it encourages landlords to evict lower-income renters. The legislation would cover properties throughout the Empire State, but it’s in New York City — by far the nation’s largest rental market — where the impact would be felt most acutely. The Rent Stabilization Association, which represents property owners, has said that the changes would reduce landlords’ cash flow and prevent many from making needed repairs to older buildings, forcing them to raise rents on apartments that aren’t regulated by rent-control laws. Bankers, meanwhile, worry that if the proposals become law, property owners could struggle to make loan payments and that some investors might lose interest in the city’s multifamily market. Indeed, many investors appear to be sitting on the sidelines, waiting to see how the battle over the future of rent control plays out. In the first quarter, total sales of multifamily properties within the city fell 59% to $2 billion compared with the fourth quarter, according to Ariel Property Advisors, a New York commercial real estate services firm. Year over year, sales fell 22%. “The proposals would put in pretty significant changes to rent control,” said Jared Shaw, an analyst at Wells Fargo Securities who follows a number of banks that are active in multifamily lending. Concerns about those changes “are definitely impacting the demand to buy multifamily properties until there is some clarity,” he said. The New York State Senate Housing Committee is holding a series of public hearings this month on the legislation in Brooklyn and several cities in upstate New York. Observers have said that some form of the legislation is likely to be approved, since Democrats control both the state House and Senate and the governor's office. Democratic leaders are scrambling to pass the new laws by mid-June, when current rent-control laws expire.

Lowest Mortgage Rates in a Month - Mortgage rates dropped noticeably this morning as financial markets opened sharply changed from Friday's latest levels thanks to Trump trade tweets over the weekend.  The stock market dropped to its lowest levels in several weeks before bouncing back as the day progressed.  As money flew out of stocks, it found a safe haven in the bond market.  Mortgage rates are most directly affected by the bond market, and when demand for bonds increases, rates fall.  The average lender was offering its best rates in roughly a month this morning.  You'd have to go back to April 10th to see anything lower.  And there were multiple lenders offering their lowest rates since April 1st. Rates will remain susceptible to trade-related headlines throughout the week as there isn't much else on the calendar of events (at least not in terms of events that the bond market typically cares about).  To whatever extent trade talks look like they will bear fruit, it would put upward pressure on rates.  Conversely, we might assume that negative updates on trade talks would continue to help rates, but markets are skeptical on the source.  If a Trump tweet is all we have, the average trader will view this as a potential negotiation tactic and thus not as meaningful a reason to chase rates to even lower levels.

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey -- From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 2.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 3, 2019. ... The Refinance Index increased 1 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 5 percent higher than the same week one year ago. - “We saw a good week for the spring homebuying season, as a 5 percent increase in purchase applications – both weekly and year-over-year – drove the results,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Average loan amounts also stayed elevated, with government purchase applications rising to the highest in the survey. Even with slower price appreciation in higher-priced markets, home prices are still rising enough to push average loan sizes higher.”Added Kan, “With purchase activity increasing and mortgage rate movements mostly unchanged, the refinance share of applications were at their lowest level since last November.”... The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($484,350 or less) decreased to 4.41 percent from 4.42 percent, with points increasing to 0.47 from 0.46 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

Young homebuyers too reliant on the Bank of Mom and Dad for help - The Bank of Mom and Dad is a hugely influential force in the U.S. housing market. If it were a real financial institution, BoMaD would be the No. 7 lender, ranking among the top 10 U.S. mortgage lenders. That's according to a recent report from economics consultancy Cebr, sponsored by Legal & General. The research shows what a vital role parents, grandparents and friends play in the U.S. housing market, supporting the purchase of $317 billion worth of property across America in 2018. That accounts for 1.2 million homes, with an average sum of $39,000 lent or given. Why should this matter to mortgage lenders?  The reality is that many young working people can't afford to buy their own homes. Major cities, which hold out all the promise of excitement, youthful appeal and jobs, unfortunately come with high rents and untouchable housing prices. These societal symptoms result in the need for Bank of Mom and Dad-type lending. But this could eventually be largely bypassed if the world's biggest financial firms invested in the creation of more affordable housing in more affordable places to live. This type of investment would require a longer view than companies currently seem willing to take. But the return would also be over the long-term, and would result in benefits to a broad range of people. Parental generosity comes at a cost. This year's Bank of Mom and Dad research suggests that American families — not just the young — are feeling squeezed. Many generous parents go to significant lengths to help their kids buy their first home — some by taking out a loan (15%), some by raiding their 401(k) savings (8%), some by downsizing their own home (6%) and some even by coming out of retirement (3%). While the current situation puts undue strain on many who have worked hard to secure a comfortable retirement, it also means that many in the younger generations are dependent on their parents and grandparents to buy a home — even after depending on them to get through college.

CoreLogic: House Prices up 3.7% Year-over-year in March - Notes: The CoreLogic House Price Index is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Reports March Home Prices Increased by 3.7% Year Over Year CoreLogic® ... today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for March 2019, which shows home prices rose both year over year and month over month. Home prices increased nationally by 3.7% year over year from March 2018. On a month-over-month basis, prices increased by 1% in March 2019. (February 2019 data was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results each month.)   Looking ahead, after some initial moderation in early 2019, the CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates home prices will begin to pick up and increase by 4.8% on a year-over-year basis from March 2019 to March 2020. On a month-over-month basis, home prices are expected to decrease by 0.3% from March 2019 to April 2019. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices calculated using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state. “The U.S. housing market continues to cool, primarily due to some of our priciest markets moving into frigid waters,” said Dr. Ralph McLaughlin, deputy chief economist at CoreLogic. “But the broader market looks more temperate as supply and demand come into balance. With mortgage rates flat and inventory picking up, we expect more buyers to take advantage of easing housing market headwinds.”   CR Note: The CoreLogic YoY increase had been in the 5% to 7% range for the last few years. This is the slowest twelve-month home-price growth rate since 2012.

NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased to Record High for the 55+ Housing Market in Q1 --This index is similar to the overall NAHB housing market index (HMI), but only released quarterly. The NAHB started this index in Q4 2008 (during the housing bust), so the readings were initially very low. From the NAHB: 55+ Housing Market Opens First Quarter with Record High Builder confidence in the single-family 55+ housing market continued to strengthen in the first quarter of 2019 with a reading of 72, up six points from the previous quarter, according to the National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB) 55+ Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. This is the highest reading since the inception of the index in 2008...."Overall, demand for homes in 55+ communities remain strong as more buyers and renters in that market search for simpler living arrangements,” said Karen Schroeder, chair of NAHB's 55+ Housing Industry Council and vice president of Mayberry Homes in East Lansing, Mich. “However, there are still headwinds that are impacting the market, such as rising construction costs and a lack of skilled labor.” All three index components of the 55+ single-family HMI posted increases from the previous quarter: Present sales rose four points to 76, expected sales for the next six months increased seven points to 77 and traffic of prospective buyers climbed eight points to 61. This graph shows the NAHB 55+ Single Family HMI through Q1 2019.  Any reading above 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than as  poor.  The index increased to 72 in Q1 up from 66 in Q4. There are two key drivers in addition to the improved economy: 1) there is a large cohort that recently moved into the 55+ group, and 2) the homeownership rate typically increases for people in the 55 to 70 year old age group. So demographics are favorable for the 55+ market.

Update: Framing Lumber Prices Down 35% Year-over-year - Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices.   Lumber prices declined from the record highs in early 2018, and are now down about 35% year-over-year.  This graph shows two measures of lumber prices: 1) Framing Lumber from Random Lengths through April 26, 2019 (via NAHB), and 2) CME framing futures.  Right now Random Lengths prices are down 31% from a year ago, and CME futures are  down 40% year-over-year. There is a seasonal pattern for lumber prices, and usually prices will increase in the Spring, and peak around May, and then bottom around October or November - although there is quite a bit of seasonal variability.

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased Year-over-year -- From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 4 May: The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 28 April through 4 May 2019, according to data from STR.
In comparison with the week of 29 April through 5 May 2018, the industry recorded the following:
• Occupancy: +1.2% to 69.1%
• Average daily rate (ADR): +2.3% to US$133.43
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): +3.6% to US$92.21
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.

Consumer Credit Growth Slowest In 9 Months As Credit Card Debt Unexpectedly Shrank -After a few months of wild swings in mid-2018, followed by solid growth at the end of last year, in March growth in US consumer credit continued to slow, rising by only $10.3 billion, far below the $16 billion expected following February's $15.5 billion increase, and the lowest monthly increase since June of 2018.Despite the slowdown, the continued increase in borrowings saw a new all time high of $4.045 trillion on the back of a America's ongoing love affair with auto and student loans, if not so much credit cards: in fact, the reason for the sharp slowdown in March was due to an unexpected $2.2 billion decline in credit card debt, the first of 2019, and the third biggest in post-crisis history. This reduced the total outstanding credit card debt to $1.057 trillion, still just shy of all time highs.Non-revolving credit, i.e. student and auto loans, rose jumped by $12.5 billion, almost unchanged from last month's 12.4 billion and in line with recent monthly increases; the latest jump brought the nonrevolving total also to a new all time high of $2.995 trillion. And while February's sudden drop in credit card use may prompt some concerns about the financial stability and propensity of the US consumer to spend, one place where there were no surprises, was in the total amount of student and auto loans: here as expected, both numbers hit fresh all time highs as of March 31, with a record $1.598 trillion in student loans outstanding, a whopping increase of $30 billion in the quarter, while auto debt also hit a new all time high of $1.161 trillion, an increase of $8.3 billion in the quarter.

 Consumer Price Index: April Headline at 2.00% - The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the April Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 2.00%, up from 1.86% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 2.06%, up from the previous month's 2.04% and above the Fed's 2% PCE target.Here is the introduction from the BLS summary, which leads with the seasonally adjusted monthly data:The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.4 percent in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.The gasoline index continued to increase, rising 5.7 percent and accounting for over two-thirds of the seasonally adjusted all items monthly increase. The index for energy rose 2.9 percent, although the index for natural gas declined and the index for electricity was unchanged. The food index fell in April, its first monthly decline since June 2017.The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent for the third consecutive month. The indexes for shelter, medical care, education, and new vehicles all rose in April. The indexes for used cars and trucks, apparel, and household furnishings and operations were among those that declined over the month.The all items index increased 2.0 percent for the 12 months ending April, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending November 2018. The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.1 percent over the last 12 months, and the food index rose 1.8 percent. The energy index increased 1.7 percent over the past year after posting 12-month declines the past 4 months. [More…]Investing.com was looking for a 0.3% MoM change in seasonally adjusted Headline CPI and 0.2% in Core CPI. Year-over-year forecasts were 2.1% for Headline and 2.1% for Core. The first chart is an overlay of Headline CPI and Core CPI (the latter excludes Food and Energy) since the turn of the century. The highlighted two percent level is the Federal Reserve's Core inflation target for the CPI's cousin index, the BEA's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.

BLS: CPI increase 0.3% in April, Core CPI increased 0.1% -- From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.4 percent in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.0 percent before seasonal adjustment....The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent for the third consecutive month....The all items index increased 2.0 percent for the 12 months ending April, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending November 2018. The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.1 percent over the last 12 months, and the food index rose 1.8 percent. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.

Gas prices fail to ignite overall inflation in April, but real wages flat so far for 2019 The consumer price index rose +0.3% in April, just as in March mainly as a result of a big monthly increase in gas prices. This is actually a surprisingly small increase because, as I pointed out last month, almost every time gas prices have increased by as much as they did — up 9% in March and 11% for April — consumer prices as a whole have gone up at least +0.4%. I’m showing just the last 10 years in the graph below (wages in blue, gas prices in red): Ex-gas, consumer inflation ex-energy has been remarkably stable between 1.5% and 2.5% YoY ever since gas prices made their long term bottom in early 1999. The only big exceptions were in the year before each of the last two recessions: Now let’s turn to wages. Nominally, wages for non-supervisory employees increased +0.3% in April, so after inflation they were flat, as they have been all this year so far: YoY non-supervisory wages nominally were up +3.4%. With YoY inflation rising to +2.0%, in real terms, real wages are only up +1.4%, a decline from their YoY high in February: In the long view, real wages are still -3.1% below their January 1973 peak, and -0.1% below where they were in February: Finally, here are aggregate real wages. This tells us how much more American workers as a whole in real terms since the bottom just after the Great Recession. These improved to 28.9% above their low, but only tied with their January peak: While in real terms American workers have made no progress so far this year, nevertheless it’s no surprise that in public opinion polls, Americans feel pretty good about the economy right now. Unemployment is lower than it has been in several decades. Underemployment is at least approaching its lows in the past 25 years. And wage growth, while subpar in historical terms, has improved to the point where it is not the kind of source of discontent it was in the first years of this expansion. I don’t expect this to change unless there is a further jump in gas prices, or else a significant tightening of consumer credit.

U.S. producer prices rise moderately in April (Reuters) - U.S. producer prices rose moderately in April, but underlying inflation pressures at the factory gate appeared to be picking up. The Labor Department said on Thursday its producer price index for final demand increased 0.2 percent last month after jumping 0.6 percent in March. In the 12 months through April, the PPI increased 2.2 percent, matching March’s rise. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PPI gaining 0.2 percent in April and increasing 2.3 percent on a year-on-year basis. A key gauge of underlying producer price pressures that excludes food, energy and trade services increased 0.4 percent last month. That was the largest rise since January 2018 after being unchanged in March. The so-called core PPI increased 2.2 percent in the 12 months through April after rising 2.0 percent in March. Price pressures have remained moderate despite a strong economy and tightening labor market. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 1.6 percent in the year to March, the smallest gain in 14 months, from 1.7 percent in February. The U.S. central bank last week kept interest rates unchanged and signaled little desire to adjust monetary policy anytime soon. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said inflation had been “somewhat weaker,” but believed the softer readings “may wind up being transient.”  Last month, wholesale energy prices rose 1.8 percent after jumping 5.6 percent in March. Goods prices increased 0.3 percent last month after surging 1.0 percent in March. Wholesale food prices fell 0.2 percent in April. Core goods prices were unchanged after rising 0.2 percent in March. The cost of services edged up 0.1 percent in April after increasing 0.3 percent in the prior month. Prices for healthcare services increased 0.3 percent last month. Those healthcare costs feed into the core PCE price index.

 April Producer Price Index: Core Final Demand Up 0.1% MoM - Today's release of the April Producer Price Index (PPI) for Final Demand came in at 0.2% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, down from 0.6% last month. It is at 2.2% year-over-year, unchanged from last month, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Core Final Demand (less food and energy) came in at 0.1% MoM, down from 0.3% the previous month and is up 2.4% YoY NSA. Investing.com MoM consensus forecasts were for 0.2% headline and 0.2% core.Here is the summary of the news release on Final Demand:The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.2 percent in April, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.6 percent in March and 0.1 percent in February. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index increased 2.2 percent for the 12 months ended in April.Leading the April rise in the index for final demand, prices for final demand goods climbed 0.3 percent. The index for final demand services edged up 0.1 percent, and prices for final demand construction advanced 1.6 percent. More…  The BLS shifted its focus to its new "Final Demand" series in 2014, a shift we support. However, the data for these series are only constructed back to November 2009 for Headline and April 2010 for Core. Since our focus is on longer-term trends, we continue to track the legacy Producer Price Index for Finished Goods, which the BLS also includes in their monthly updates. As this (older) overlay illustrates, the Final Demand and Finished Goods indexes are highly correlated.

U.S. wholesale inventories fall 0.1% in March as sales surge -- Wholesale inventories in the U.S. fell 0.1% in March, the government said Thursday. Sales jumped 2.3% in the month. The ratio of inventories to sales dropped to 1.32 to 1.35. That's how many months it would take to sell all the inventory on hand. One year, ago the ratio stood at 1.29, when the economy was somewhat stronger. The increase in wholesale inventories in February, meanwhile, was revised up to 0.4% from 0.2%.

 Trade Deficit Increased to $50.0 Billion in March - From the Department of Commerce reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $50.0 billion in March, up $0.7 billion from $49.3 billion in February, revised.March exports were $212.0 billion, $2.1 billion more than February exports. March imports were $262.0 billion, $2.8 billion more than February imports. Exports and imports increased in March.Exports are 28% above the pre-recession peak and up 1% compared to March 2018; imports are 13% above the pre-recession peak, and up 2% compared to March 2018.In general, trade had been picking up, although both imports and exports have moved mostly sideways recently.  The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products. Oil imports averaged $53.10 per barrel in March, up from $46.89 in February, and down from $54.00 in March 2018.  The trade deficit with China decreased to $20.7 billion in March, from $25.9 billion in March 2018.

Trump Winning? US Trade Gap With China Tumbles To 5-Year Low - The headline US trade balance printed in line with expectations at a $50 billion deficit, marginally 'worse' than the prior month's. Overall exports increased 1% to $212 billion, boosted by a 39% jump in soybean shipments. Imports climbed 1.1% to $262 billion on gains in oil, food, vehicles and pharmaceuticals. The overall merchandise-trade deficit widened 0.7% to $72.4 billion. However, likely of more interest to President Trump, the trade gap with China shrank to $20.75 billion in March - the lowest since March 2014, offering the administration a chance to claim his tariff war is yielding the desired results just as negotiations reach a critical stage.However, as Bloomberg notes, the narrower gap with China obscures a sharp drop in trade between the nations. Imports from the Asian country dropped 13.6% in the first quarter from a year earlier, to $118.8 billion, while exports plunged 17.6% to $27.2 billion. For March, exports were the highest since mid-2018 while imports were the lowest since 2016.Finally, as USMCA hits more headlines, we note that, on an unadjusted basis, the merchandise trade deficit with Mexico rose to a record $9.5 billion, while the gap with Europe increased by more than half, to $14.2 billion.

 Real Trade Balance - Spencer England - The real trade deficit ( million 2012 $) increased from $81,558 in February to $ 82,054 in March.  The March observation was between the January and February data points so it was not large enough to generate a significant change in imports  0.58 percentage point contribution to first quarter real GDP growth.   In the first quarter real GDP report the significant contribution of foreign trade to real GDP growth has been interpreted by the administration as a sign of success with its trade policies.  But the underlying real import and export data suggest that it is premature to call  it a trend change. In evaluating the trade balance it is important to remember that it is the difference between two very large numbers so that a small change in either imports or exports can generate a large change in the balance.  Recently  real imports have been some 150% of real exports. This implies that even if imports and exports have the same growth rate the trade deficit would still widen.  For the trade deficit to improve, exports need to growth much faster than imports. Over the past year both real imports and exports have flattened out after several years of strong growth for both. One series that does  appear to be still growing is real imports excluding POL (Petroleum, Oil & Liquefied Gas). But in the first quarter it was only up 2.5% from first quarter, 2018.  The chart clearly shows that over the past year we have been seeing volatile monthly data on real imports and exports bouncing around a flat trend. As a consequence the real trade balance has been highly volatile  and it is hard to say that the apparent improvement in the first quarter is a trend change or just random noise. One significant change in real trade over the past year has been the virtual elimination of the deficit in energy as exports of fracked oil are how almost as large as the continued large oil imports.  But, surprisingly, the sharp drop in the energy trade deficit has not generated much of a change in the overall trade balance as non-POL imports have surged enough to offset the improvement in the energy deficit.  I take this to be a demonstration that the real cause of the large US trade deficit is the impact of the federal deficit on the domestic savings-investment balance — what we use to refer as the twin deficits. Trump is trying to deal with the impact of the federal deficit on the domestic savings-investment gap by addressing the trade deficit.  But he is dealing with the symptoms of the problem, not the underlying cause. As long as the savings-investment deficit remains large the trade deficit will also stay large.

US manufacturing slowdown looms over trade talks- Kemp (Reuters) - U.S. manufacturers are experiencing the most marked deceleration in business activity since 2015 and before that the great recession of 2008, according to a raft of data from the federal government. The resilience of the U.S. manufacturing sector compared with its counterparts in Asia and Europe, despite the increase in trade tensions with China and heightened business uncertainty, has puzzled some observers. But careful analysis of the data on new orders, employment, hours worked and prices for U.S. manufacturing, as well as business surveys, paints a consistent picture of lost momentum since the middle of 2018 (https://tmsnrt.rs/2DSPfKL).For all that the White House is highlighting the relative strength of headline economic data and the resilience of the U.S. equity market, manufacturing has been hit hard over the last nine months. The extent of the manufacturing slowdown gives the White House a strong incentive to reach a trade agreement with China and avoid a further escalation of the tariff war. Every manufacturing indicator tells a story of slowing growth:

• New orders for non-defence capital equipment excluding aircraft increased by 4.1 percent year-on-year in the three months from January to March, less than half the rate of 8.3 percent in June-August 2018.
• Manufacturing employment rose by just 1.8 percent in the three months from February to April compared with a year earlier, down from 2.2 percent growth in the three months from September to November.
• Manufacturers reported the average number of hours worked by non-supervisory employees fell to 41.7 per week between February and April, from 42.3 at the same point last year.
• Manufacturing overtime shrank to 4.3 hours per week in April, from a peak of 4.7 hours per week in the same month last year.
• Manufacturers’ selling prices increased by just 1.7 percent between February and April compared with the same period a year earlier, down from almost 5.8 percent in the three months ending in July 2018.

Government data is consistent with the survey of manufacturing businesses conducted by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), which has also chronicled a sharp deceleration in activity since the end of August 2018. The ISM purchasing managers’ index slipped to 52.8 in April, down from a cyclical high of 61.3 in August, and the lowest reading since October 2016.

Boeing’s Crapified Safety Culture: Airline Pressured, Overruled FAA Designees, Told FAA Late of Problems, Gave Inconsistent Stories to 737 Max Customers - In the last few days, the press has published more accounts on the 737 Max and broader issues on Boeing’s safety culture, or more accurately, the increasing lack thereof. Although all stories paint a broadly similar picture, that of a company that was relentlessly profit-oriented to the detriment of safety and adequate disclosure to regulators and customers, the most damning is a detailed piece at the Seattle Times, Engineers say Boeing pushed to limit safety testing in race to certify planes, including 737 MAX . I strongly urge you to read it full. The article gives a damning picture of how Boeing got the FAA to delegate more and more certification authority to the airline, and then pressured and abused employees who refused to back down on safety issues. On Monday, the Post and Courier reported about the South Carolina plant that produced 787s found with tools rattling inside that Boeing SC lets mechanics inspect their own work, leading to repeated mistakes, workers say. Oops! Another report at Reuters described how Boeing weakened another safety check, that of pilot input. A new piece in the Wall Street Journal described how Boeing knew of 737 Max software problems a full year before it told the FAA, and how it also gave inconsistent accounts to important customers. Based on how the FAA greatly weakened supervision in 2004, it’s a testament to the airline’s deeply internalized safety culture that Boeing-like results didn’t occur till recently. And by “Boeing-like results,” I mean corners-cutting opposed by the very personnel who were tasked with safety oversight. As the Seattle Times described, the problems extended beyond the 737 Max MCAS software shortcomings; indeed, none of the incidents in the story relate to it.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 228,000 The DOL reported: In the week ending May 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 228,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 230,000. The 4-week moving average was 220,250, an increase of 7,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 212,500. The previous week was unrevised.  The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

BLS: Job Openings Increased to 7.5 Million in March - Notes: In March there were 7.488 million job openings, and, according to the March Employment report, there were 6.211 million unemployed. So, for the thirteen consecutive month, there were more job openings than people unemployed. Also note that the number of job openings has exceeded the number of hires since January 2015 (over 4 years).  From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings rose to 7.5 million on the last business day of March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.4 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate was unchanged at 2.3 percent and the layoffs and discharges rate was little changed at 1.1 percent. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the nonfarm sector by industry and by four geographic regions. ... The number of quits was little changed in March at 3.4 million. The quits rate was 2.3 percent. The quits level was little changed for total private and for government. The following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for March, the most recent employment report was for April. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey Click on graph for larger image. Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. Jobs openings increased in March to 7.488 million from 7.142 million in February. The number of job openings (yellow) are up 9% year-over-year. Quits are up 3% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (see light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits"). Job openings remain at a high level, and quits are still increasing year-over-year. This was still a solid report.

March JOLTS report: Hiring and discharges show signs of late cycle deceleration - The JOLTS report on labor is noteworthy and helpful because it breaks down the jobs market into a more granular look at hiring, firing, and voluntary quits. Its drawback is that the data only goes back less than 20 years, so from the point of view of looking at the economic cycle, it has to be taken with a large dose of salt.  With that disclaimer out of the way, today’s JOLTS report for March generally showed a slight backing off from their recent best readings of this expansion.  All of the series are off their best levels, and three of the five noteworthy ones continued to decline:

• Quits declined slightly (less than -0.1%) and are -2% off their peak of two months ago.
• Hires declined slightly to about -4% off their October peak.
• Total separations rose declined to about -4% off their peak in last July.
• Job openings rose and are now down -2% from their November all time high, reversing February’s sharp decline. 
• Layoffs and Discharges declined about -5% (a good thing) and remain about 7% above their September 2016 low, although well below their levels of most of the past 18 months.

Let's update where the report might tell us we are in the cycle.  First, below is a graph of the *rates* of hiring, quits, layoffs, and openings as a percentage of the labor force since the inception of the series (layoffs and discharges are inverted at the 3% level, so that higher readings show fewer layoffs than normal, and lower readings show more): As of this report, hires and openings *possibly* show signs of having made a cyclical peak at this point, with quits steady and layoffs and separations at their best level of the cycle. Next, here's an upd ate to the simple metric of "hiring leads firing," (actually, "total separations"). Here's the long term relationship since 2000 through Q1 of 2019: Here is the monthly update for the past three years: Last month I wrote there was deceleration but no sign of a significant downturn. This month there is, and total separations are now negative YoY: Finally, let's compare job openings with actual hires and quits. As you probably recall, I am not a fan of job openings as "hard data." They can reflect trolling for resumes, and presumably reflect a desire to hire at the wage the employer prefers. In the below graph, the *rate* of each activity is normed to 100 at its July 2018 value:

There Is A Record 1.7 Million More Job Openings Than Unemployed Workers - The US labor market continues to grow at a blistering pace. After the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reported record prints for virtually every notable labor market series for January, followed by a modest slowdown in February, there was another impressive higher across most labor market indicators in March. According to the BLS, after an upward revision to the February job openings from 7.087MM to 7.142MM, in March this number surged by a whopping 346K to 7.488 million, the fourth highest number of job openings on record. According to the BLS, the number of job openings increased for total private (+363,000) and was little changed for government. Job openings increased in a number of industries, with the largest increases in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+87,000), construction (+73,000), and real estate and rental and leasing (+57,000). Job openings decreased in federal government (-15,000). More notably, February was the 13th consecutive month in which there were more job openings then unemployed workers: in fact, considering that according to the payrolls report there were 7.488 MM unemployed workers, there was a record 1.664 million more job openings than unemployed workers, (how accurate, or politically-biased the BLS data is, is another matter entirely). In other words, in an economy in which there was a perfect match between worker skills and employer needs, there would be zero unemployed people at this moment (of course, that is not the case.) And yet, there was some disappointing aspects to the report: while job openings soared, the number of hires declined for a second consecutive month, dropping by 35K, to 5.660 million, following a 134K drop in February, and the lowest since last March. The hires level hires level was little changed for total private and fell for government.According to the historical correlation between the number of hires and the 12 month cumulative job change, the pace of hiring right now is precisely where it should be relative to the cumulative change in hiring.

 Trump says GM will sell Lordstown, Ohio plant to Workhorse for electric truck production - President Donald Trump on Wednesday praised General Motors CEO Mary Barra after he says she informed him GM will sell their Lordstown manufacturing plant to Workhorse to build electric trucks. Trump added that GM will also spend $700 million in Ohio, creating 450  new jobs. “I have been working nicely with GM to get this done. Thank you to Mary B, your GREAT Governor, and Senator Rob Portman. With all the car companies coming back, and much more, THE USA IS BOOMING!” Trump tweeted.

New Orleans Times-Picayune lays off its entire staff - Following the sale of Pulitzer prize-winning newspaper the New Orleans Times-Picayune to a local competitor, the entire staff of the 182-year-old newspaper was told their jobs would be eliminated in 60 days. The media conglomerate Advance Publications, which purchased the New Orleans daily in 1962, sold it to a smaller, Baton Rouge-based newspaper family the Advocate. Last Friday, after announcing the firing of some 200 workers and reporters, the Advocate detailed plans to combine the two papers into a single daily paper using the masthead of both brands and combining their online presence into the Times-Picayune affiliated site nola.com. Before the devastation of Katrina in 2005, the Times-Picayune had a circulation of over 250,000. That dropped to around 85,000 after the storm but the paper won the respect and admiration of the New Orleans community due to its principled and consistent coverage of the storm and its aftermath. This devotion to serving the local community and honest reporting of the devastation following the storm won the paper two Pulitzer prizes. The move follows previous efforts by the Advance Publications group, owned by the billionaire Newhouse family, to cut back staff and reduce the publication’s print output to three days a week back in 2012 as part of a general shift away from print toward more online presence and video content. Advance Publications, which owns glitzy, online media group Conde Nast, made similar shifts away from print to video content creation with its other owned properties around the web and, using its Advance Local subsidiary, across the United States’ local newspaper landscape. Between 2014 and 2017 some 5,000 media jobs across the country have been cut, with another 2,400 cuts in 2019 alone.

 Don’t be fooled by calls for a ‘regional’ minimum wage – EPI - Federal law is supposed to be the backstop that protects the vulnerable when lower levels of government fail to act. But a recent proposal to establish a regionally-adjusted federal minimum wage would undermine this principle, codifying disparities into federal law that in many cases are not the result of benign economic forces.For one thing, it is impossible to separate the prevalence of low wages in the South from the persistent racial hierarchies there. Fortunately, the historical record shows that federal lawmakers do not need to accept this legacy. Establishing a federal $15 minimum wage in 2024, as over 200 Congressional Democrats have proposed, is economically achievable nationwide. For decades, lawmakers—particularly in southern states—have refused to raise minimum wages and have prohibited cities and counties from doing so. The proposed regionally-adjusted federal minimum would simply accept this outcome, locking in these areas’ low-wage status, and leaving behind millions of workers—particularly workers of color—in the process. The Economic Policy Institute estimates 15.6 million fewer workers would get a raise under the regional proposal compared with a universal $15 minimum wage, and over 40 percent of these excluded workers are people of color.It is true that states and sub-state areas have varying wage and price levels and there are times when policies should take those differences into account. The good news is regional wage differences are far smaller today than in past decades. This means implementing a more livable national minimum wage is easier now than for previous generations. Doing so will generate a universal federal minimum wage that states and cities can exceed if needed, so that no worker fails to receive a livable wage and policy gradually shifts upward those at the bottom of the wage scale. A uniform federal minimum wage would help combat inequality across both racial and gender lines.

US Adults Spend Crushing Amount Of Cash Playing Video Games - American adults spend enormous amounts of money playing video games, mostly on smartphones, and at a rapidly increasing pace, according to Reuters.  According to annual research from the Entertainment Software Association, over 164 million US adults play video games - a figure that's 20% more than a year ago and over 85% more than in 2015.  A staggering $43.4 billion spent in 2018 was mostly on content, as opposed to hardware and accessories. Of pay-to-play games, “Call of Duty: Black Ops III”, “Red Dead Redemption II” and “NBA 2K19” took the top spots for most units sold but the list did not include free games such as “Fortnite.”“Games are striking an important chord with American culture,” said Stanley Pierre-Louis, ESA’s acting president and chief executive officer. “That’s what makes it the leading form of entertainment today.”Nearly 65 percent of U.S. adults, or more than 164 million people, play games. The most popular genre is casual games, with 60 percent of players gaming on their smartphones, though about half also play on personal computers and specialized consoles. –Reuters According to the report, around 46% of gamers are female, though they prefer different kinds of games than men - especially when age is considered.   Female gamers between 18 and 34 love "Candy Crush" , "Assassin's Creed" and "Tomb Raider," and typically play on a smartphone. Men in the same age group play "God of War" , "Madden NFL" and "Fortnite."  GenX - those 40 to 54 years old, and the first generation to "grow up" with video games, play "Tetris" , "Pac-Man" , "Call of Duty" , "Forza" and "NBA 2K."  Antonio Romero Monteiro of Richmond, Texas - who holds a Guinness World Record for the largest video game collection - plays a few more than that...  Baby boomers love digital card and board games, with men 55-64 playing "Solitaire" and "Scrabble," and women preferring "Mahjong" and "Monopoly."  Game players were no more prone than other Americans to live isolated, sedentary lives, according to the report. Americans will soon have even more ways to play video games. Apple Inc is launching a game subscription service and Alphabet Inc’s Google announced a video game streaming service late this year. The new services will present challenges to established video game developers like Electronic Arts Inc, maker of “Apex Legends”; Tencent Holdings Ltd’s Riot Games, maker of “League of Legends”; Valve Corp, owner of “Counter-Strike” and the Steam distribution platform; and Activision Blizzard Inc, owner of “Call of Duty” and “Candy Crush.” –Reuters The ESA study was conducted using data gathered by Ipsos from over 4,000 Americans.

Brain Drain & The Polarization Of America - The highly-educated are concentrating together, depriving struggling communities and dividing the country... Are we more divided as a nation today than we were before? Our new research within the Joint Economic Committee’s Social Capital Project suggests that we are. The findings indicate that Americans are more frequently dividing themselves geographically and along lines of education. Highly-educated Americans have increasingly moved to a handful of states over the last several decades, leaving other places behind. This “brain drain” has clear economic implications. Beyond economics though, it’s also likely draining social capital from many places, as communities lose talent and resources that would help support civic institutions. Brain drain and educational sorting exacerbate political and cultural divides as well: Americans segregate themselves into communities where they more frequently reside near those similar to themselves, decreasing the likelihood of rubbing shoulders with those who see the world differently. The Rust Belt, the Plains, and some states in New England are experiencing high levels of brain drain. It’s not news that highly educated Americans are more likely to move. America’s highly educated have consistently been more prone to pack up their bags and seek opportunity outside their hometowns. But surprisingly, there have been few attempts to quantify the magnitude of the problem and assess whether it is getting worse. To rectify that, we created brain drain measures that compare the share of people leaving their birth states who are highly educated to either the highly educated share of people staying in their birth states or the share entering the states who are highly educated. We found that today, highly educated movers in the U.S. tend to leave certain states and regions of the country at higher rates than in the past and concentrate in a smaller group of states that are home to booming metropolitan areas. This leads to growing geographic divides between areas that are thriving and places that struggle. With fewer states retaining and attracting talent, more areas are left behind. A handful of states have become exclusive destinations for the highly educated.   These talent-magnet states are along the West Coast, as well as the Boston-Washington corridor. Beyond the coasts, a few other states, like Texas, are retaining their homegrown talent while simultaneously winning a balance of talent from elsewhere. These “brain gain” states are like an elite club whose members trade among themselves. New York pulls in highly educated entrants primarily from New Jersey (ranked sixth on net brain gain) and California. Massachusetts (ranked second) is also among its top five sending states. The most common origins of Texas’s entrants include California, Illinois, and New York. New Jersey draws its highly educated from the likes of New York, Massachusetts, California, and Illinois.

'Alexa, Stop Spying on My Kids': FTC Complaint Charges Amazon's Echo Dot Violates Child Privacy Law - A coalition of consumer and public health groups demanded Thursday that federal regulators investigate and sanction Amazon for its Echo Dot Kids Edition, arguing that the device illegally collects and retains children's personal data.The brightly colored, always-on listening device "will play music, answer questions, read stories, tell jokes, and more—all with younger ears in mind," according to Amazon. "The included one year of FreeTime Unlimited gives your kids access to thousands of hours of fun and educational content, including ad-free radio stations and playlists, Audible books, and a growing list of premium kids skills." Amazon maintained in statements to reporters on Thursday that Echo Dot Kids Edition and FreeTime comply with federal privacy rules—but 19 groups, led by Commercial-Free Childhood (CCFC) and the Center for Digital Democracy (CDD), disagree.In a complaint submitted to the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) Thursday, the coalition charged that the device violates the Children's Online Privacy Protection Act (COPPA), based on the findings of an investigation conducted by CCFC and the Institute for Public Representation (IPR) at Georgetown Law."We spent months analyzing the Echo Dot Kids and the device's myriad privacy policies and we still don't have a clear picture of what data is collected by Amazon and who has access to it," Angela Campbell, a CCFC board member and director of IPR's Communications and Technology Clinic, said in a statement."If privacy experts can't make heads or tails of Amazon's privacy policy labyrinth," Campbell asked, "how can a parent meaningfully consent to the collection of their children's data?" Though questions remain about the device and data collection, what researchers found alarmed them. Alongside the complaint to federal regulators, the coalition launched a website that outlines specific ways in which experts say the device raises privacy concerns and breaks the law:

More US school-age children die from guns than on-duty US police or global military fatalities, study finds - Gun deaths of school-age children in the United States have increased at an alarming rate, with 38,942 fatalities among 5- to 18-year-olds from 1999 to 2017, according to a new study by Florida Atlantic University's Schmidt College of Medicine.Indeed, spikes in gun deaths over the past decade amount to epidemics, researchers said."It is sobering that in 2017, there were 144 police officers who died in the line of duty and about 1,000 active duty military throughout the world who died, whereas 2,462 school-age children were killed by firearms," said Dr. Charles Hennekens, the study's senior author and an academic adviser at the medical college.The study, to be published in the American Journal of Medicine, found that children are being gunned down in staggering numbers, with the death rate six to nine times higher than othe  r developed nations.The gun deaths included 6,464 children between the ages of 5 and 14 years old (anaverage of 340 deaths per year), and 32,478 deaths in children between 15 and 18years old (an average of 2,050 deaths per year), according to the study.Of the deaths, 86% involved boys, the study found. Black children accounted for 41% of those killed, though in recent years they've comprised just 14% of the US population, US census data show."Among blacks, the annual average percent change of 9.5% for firearm-related mortality among 5 to 14-year-olds from 2013 to 2017 exceeded the 7.8% for overall deaths among 15 to 24-year-olds during the early years of the human immunodeficiency virus epidemic from 1987 to 1995," the study said.The research should have public policy implications, Hennekens said."We need more analytic studies on this, but in the meanwhile, we believe that trying to combat the epidemic of homicide due to firearms without addressing firearms is like combating the epidemic of lung cancer due to cigarettes without combating cigarettes," he said. "To me, it's tragic that this is going on."

Students who owe lunch money in Rhode Island will only get jelly sandwiches until debt is paid -Students at a Rhode Island school district who owe money on their lunch accounts will have the sole option of a sunflower butter and jelly sandwich until they are able to pay their balances, the district announced Sunday.Warwick Public Schools, which has more than 9,000 pre-kindergarten through 12th grade students, said the district-wide policy will go into effect on May 13."If money is owed on a paid, free, or reduced lunch account a sun butter and jelly sandwich will be given as the lunch choice until the balance owed is paid in full or a payment plan is set up," said apost from the district on Facebook.Warwick School Committee chairwoman Karen Bachus told NBC News that the sandwiches are served with the vegetable of the day, a fruit and milk.Public schools in Rhode Island are mandated by state law to provide lunches to students. Nearly 70 percent of school lunches in Rhode Island are served for free or at a reduced price based on family income, according to the state. But some parents who commented on the announcement from Warwick Public Schools said even though they qualify for free lunches, their children still owed money because they had added something to their trays that wasn't included with the free lunch, like extra milk.  Other parents noted that the policy of giving out jelly sandwiches to students who owed money would likely leave those children embarrassed and prone to bullying. "This is absolutely awful. Our schools shouldn't be in the business of shaming children," one person wrote beneath the Facebook announcement."Just give the kids lunch. ... we cant spring for a chicken patty for a hungry kid? What if this is their only meal of the day?" another commenter to the post asked.  The sunflower butter and jelly sandwich is an option on the regular lunch menu that many students opt for anyway, Bachus said.

Arizona students demand release of classmate detained by immigration agents - On Monday, over 200 high school students in Tucson, Arizona walked out of school to protest the detention and deportation of their classmate, Thomas Torres, an 18-year-old senior just two weeks away from graduating. Torres was pulled over by a police officer while driving on May 2 and was handed over to Customs Border Patrol (CBP) officers. He is currently being held in an immigration detention center in Florence, Arizona, awaiting a court hearing which will take place on May 22, the day he is set to graduate from Desert View High School. Desert View students walked out Monday morning and marched four miles (6.5 kilometers) to the Pima County Sheriff's Department to demand Torres’ immediate release. Students held a morning press conference in front of the police station which was live streamed on social media. The fight to free their classmate has been dubbed “Operation Thomas” by the students. At the press conference, close friends and classmates spoke in opposition to Torres’ arrest and detainment. Torres’ friend Daffne Anselmo told reporters “We’re here to get our friend back. This shouldn't be happening right now. Thomas should be in class. We all should be in class.” “ICE and police are tearing families apart. We shouldn’t be worrying about ending up in an immigration prison or jail after leaving school. We don’t need this to happen again. It’s been happening for years We just want this to stop,” Anselmo said.

Children At Philadelphia Muslim Society Say They Will Chop Off Heads For Allah -- Footage has surfaced of Muslim children at an Islamic center in Philadelphia saying that they would sacrifice themselves, "chop off heads" and even kill for the "army of Allah".  The Muslim American Society (MAS) Islamic center in Philadelphia posted the video to its Facebook page in celebration of "Ummah Day". Young children are seen in the video wearing Palestinian scarves and reading poetry about killing for Allah. The Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI) told Fox News: "These are not isolated incidents; they are happening in major centers of the country – including in Pennsylvania."MEMRI translated the video, where children can be heard singing: "The land of the Prophet Muhammad's Night Journey is calling us. Our Palestine must return to us." One girl even talks about martyrs sacrificing their lives to conquer Jerusalem. In the video, she says: "We will defend the land of divine guidance with our bodies, and we will sacrifice our souls without hesitation. We will chop off their heads, and we will liberate the sorrowful and exalted Al-Aqsa Mosque. We will lead the army of Allah fulfilling His promise, and we will subject them to eternal torture." The MAS put out the following statement on Friday: “While we celebrate the coming together of different cultures and languages, not all songs were properly vetted. This was an unintended mistake and an oversight in which the center and the students are remorseful. MAS will conduct an internal investigation to ensure this does not occur again. As a faith-based organization dedicated to moving people to strive for God-consciousness and a just and virtuous society, we affirm our long-standing position on our shared values of humanity. We stand resolutely in our condemnation of hate, bigotry, Islamophobia, xenophobia, racism, anti-Semitism and all the illnesses of hate that plague our society.”

One dead, seven injured in Denver, Colorado suburb school shooting - One student is dead and seven are injured after two gunmen opened fire in a Highlands Ranch, Colorado charter school on Tuesday afternoon. The shooters, described only as one adult and one juvenile, were taken into custody by police. Shortly before 2 p.m. on Tuesday afternoon, the two shooters entered STEM School Highlands Ranch, a charter school with an enrollment of 1,850 students from Kindergarten through 12th grade, and opened fire in two separate locations within the high school area. In the ensuing chaos, students and teachers fled the school; at least one student fleeing the scene had been shot and took shelter along with others in a neighboring house as he awaited medical care. School staff alerted the local police as soon as shots were heard. Officers entered the school quickly, ordering a lockdown of all schools in the area. Field officers with the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) were called in as well. Helicopters hovered as parents gathered anxiously in a “reunification area,” hoping to be reunited with their children. Eight students, all ages 15 and older, were taken to local hospitals with gunshot wounds. By late evening, it was reported that one of those students, an 18-year-old boy, had died of his wounds. Police have remained quiet about the identities of the suspects or their possible motives. They have stated that officers “struggled” to apprehend the two, both of whom were taken into custody. Law enforcement now awaits a warrant to search the car of one of the suspects, as well as their homes. STEM School Highlands Ranch lies about eight miles southeast of Columbine, where Dylan Klebold and Eric Harris killed 12 of their fellow students and one teacher before taking their own lives in 1999. Along with other schools in the area, Highlands Ranch held a vigil to commemorate the 20th anniversary of the Columbine shooting less than three weeks ago.

California High School To Erase George Washington Mural- Traumatizes Students - A Northern California public school district may remove a mural of George Washington from the halls of George Washington High School due to concerns that it’s offensive and demeaning to Native Americans and African-Americans.The controversy comes after a working group determined the mural, made up of several panels, “traumatizes students and community members.” But advocates for keeping the 83-year-old mural say that removing it ignores the intent of the artist and represents an attempt to erase history.In 1936, Victor Arnautoff painted the 13 panels that make up the “Life of Washington” mural at the San Francisco Unified School District campus. Arnautoff was a prominent Russian-American painter who created the murals as part of a Works Progress Administration project undertaken during the New Deal.But a working group that met in recent months determined the artwork is highly problematic and should be archived after being removed from the walls of the school.“SFUSD convened a ‘Reflection and Action Working Group’ that was comprised of members of the local Native American community, students, school representatives, district representatives, local artists and historians,” Laura Dudnick, spokeswoman for the district, wrote in an email to The College Fix.The group held four public meetings between December 2018 and February 2019 during which it received input on what to do with the mural. The group’s recommendation? Archive the mural to protect the experience of students.“At its conclusion the group voted and the majority recommended that the ‘Life of Washington’ mural be archived and removed because the mural does not represent SFUSD values,” Dudnick’s email to The Fix continued, adding that the group considered the legacy of the artist when deciding whether or not to keep the mural up. However, concern for the experience of students won out.

Why Charter School Proponents Have Lost Many of the Democrats Who Once Supported Them - The politics of charter schools have changed, and bipartisan support for these publicly funded, privately controlled schools has reached a turning point. A sure sign of the change came from Democrats in the House Appropriations Committee who have proposed a deep cut in federal charter school grants that would lower funding to $400 million, $40 million below current levels and $100 million less than what the Trump administration has proposed. Democrats are alsocalling for better oversight of charter schools that got federal funding and then closed. This is a startling turn of events, as for years, Democrats have enthusiastically joined Republicans in providing federal grants to create new charter schools and expand existing ones. In explaining this change in the politics of charter schools, pundits and reporters will likely point to two factors: the unpopularity of Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos, an ardent charter school proponent, and teachers’ unions that can exert influence in the Democratic Party. But if the tide is truly turning on bipartisan support for charter schools, it is the charter industry itself that is most to blame. The drumbeat of reports revealing corruption, fraud, and blatant profiteering in the charter school industry has certainly penetrated the conversation.News outlets reportthe legislation proposed by House Democrats was influenced by a recent analysis which found that as much as $1 billion in federal money was wasted on charter schools that never opened or that closed because of fraud, mismanagement, other issues. That analysis, which I coauthored with Carol Burris of the Network for Public Education, urged the department of education to follow through with recommendations from a 2018 federal audit of charters, a recommendation House Democrats have also taken up. Concerns over widespread charter school corruption have mushroomed as news of scandals have become near-daily occurrences across the country, including from Arizona, Florida,California,Georgia, Nevada, and New Mexico.  Also, teachers who recently walked off the job to protest unchecked charter expansion in Los Angeles, Oakland, West Virginia, and Jefferson County, Kentucky, have helped to shift the politics of charter schools by pointing out that charters, as they are currently conceived and operated in most places, now pose an existential threat to public school systems. But the charter school industry’s worst enemy is undoubtedly itself. “What was once billed as a model for the improvement of traditionally governed public schools,”writes the Washington Post’s Valerie Strauss, “has become a troubled parallel system of privately managed schools with, in many places, patterns of waste, fraud, and segregation.”

Teachers at three Chicago charter schools strike as union blocks common fight with public school educators - Around 80 teachers at three Chicago Public Schools (CPS) charter campuses with a combined student enrollment of over 1,000 students began a strike last Wednesday to fight for higher wages and support services for their students. The strike is one of several that have been carried out at Chicago charter schools this year, affecting 22 different school campuses. Notably, all have followed a similar pattern at the direction of the Chicago Teachers Union, which has isolated the teachers’ struggles and signed deals that keep in place what is essentially a two-tier education system. Charter schools in Chicago are privately run but officially public schools, which receive public funds based upon their enrollment. However, these schools have a great deal of leeway in how they apportion the funds they receive, taking out large sums as management fees and administrator salaries. The teachers and other staff at the schools are also not covered by the regular CPS contract, and are paid far less, one of the reasons they were created in the first place. Two of the schools currently on strike, Instituto Health Sciences Career Academy and the Instituto Justice Leadership Academy, are both run by charter operator Instituto del Progreso Latino. Latino Youth High School is operated by the Pilsen Wellness Center. While both are technically considered nonprofits, the former’s board is dominated by representatives of the banks, insurance companies and other large corporations, while the latter has over the years been embroiled in scandals involving misappropriated funds and nepotistic hiring practices. Initially, teachers at five schools had planned to strike Thursday, but the CTU reached a last-minute deal with officials from two of them, Youth Connection Leadership Academy and Chicago High School for the Arts (ChiArts). Additionally, 450 striking staff members at the City Colleges of Chicago, the city’s two-year community college system, who are also CTU members, went on strike Wednesday morning, only to see a deal reached within 10 hours.

Sickout by teachers and school support staff in Nashville, Tennessee - More than 1,400 teachers and school employees in Nashville, Tennessee, participated in a sick-out Friday to protest the Democratic mayor’s school budget, which provided less than half the increase proposed by the school board and no increases in real wages for school employees, who would receive nothing but a three percent cost of living adjustment. The school board had requested a $76.7 million increase and teachers demanded a 10 percent pay increase, but Mayor David Briley offered an increase of only $28.2 million in the budget for the fiscal year beginning July 1. The Tennessean newspaper reported that 18 elementary, middle and high schools reported teacher and staff absences of at least low double digits while McGavock High School reported the largest with 123 teachers and staff reported absent. It was also reported that the sickout may continue today. Teachers were denied a 2.5 percent raise last year and face increasing class sizes and program cuts. Like their counterparts everywhere, Nashville teachers confront all the problems associated with underfunding and must pay for many supplies out of their own pockets. In a town where the Nashville Business Journal (NBJ) reported it takes $84,000 a year to “live comfortably,” teachers start at a little over $43,000 a year and school aides, “para-professionals,” make only about $20,000 a year. The sickouts appear to have been initiated by rank-and-file teachers and all of the unions looked to disassociate themselves from the job action. The Associated Press reported that Erick Huth, president of the Metro Nashville Education Association, quickly distanced himself and his “teacher organization” from the sick-out. “This is a wildcat action as far as we’re concerned,” Hurth said.

The teacher weekly wage penalty hit 21.4 percent in 2018, a record high - Economic Policy Institute - In 2018, teacher strikes in West Virginia, Oklahoma, Arizona, North Carolina, Kentucky, and Colorado raised the profile of deteriorating teacher pay as a critical public policy issue. Teacher protests have continued in many states into 2019, and there have been several prominent strikes in major cities including Los Angeles, Oakland, and Denver. Teacher protests gained sufficient national attention to merit a Time magazine cover story in September 2018 (Reilly 2018). Teachers, students, parents, and community supporters protested cutbacks in public education spending and a squeeze on teacher pay that have persisted well into the economic recovery from the Great Recession. Spending reductions affect resources available to schools, which influence numerous decisions such as whether the school has adequate support personnel, reasonable class sizes, and competitive compensation for both teachers and nonteacher staff. Spending cuts over the recovery were not the result of weak state economies. Rather, many state legislatures and governors cut spending in order to finance tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations. This report underscores the crisis in teacher pay by updating our data series on the teacher wage and compensation penalty—the percent by which public school teachers are paid less in wages and compensation than other college-educated workers—and by providing new regression-based estimates of the teacher weekly wage penalty in each state.Providing teachers with a decent middle-class living commensurate with other professionals with similar education is not simply a matter of fairness. Effective teachers are the most important school-based determinant of student educational performance.1 To promote children’s success in school, schools must retain credentialed teachers and ensure that teaching remains an attractive career option for college-bound students. Pay is an important component of retention and recruitment.The deepening teacher wage and compensation penalty over the recovery parallels a growing shortage of teachers. Every state headed into the 2017–2018 school year facing a teacher shortage (Strauss 2017). New research by García and Weiss (2019) indicates the persistence and magnitude of the teacher shortage nationwide:

 Teachers walking out statewide today in Oregon - Tens of thousands of teachers in the US state of Oregon will participate today in walkouts and rallies across the state. The Oregon educators, who will be joined by students and parents, are part of a global struggle of teachers demanding an end to the chronic underfunding of public schools. Many districts have cancelled school due to a shortage of substitute teachers. Teachers throughout the country will recognize the most crucial factors driving Oregon educators to walk out: large class sizes, inadequate staffing, high student ratios for nurses and school psychologists, slashed programs like Special Education and Arts, and stagnant wages. In 2018, nearly 380,000 teachers went on strike in the US, with educators making up the bulk of the record number of striking workers since 1986. Another 70,000 have struck this year, including in West Virginia, Los Angeles, Oakland and Denver. These conditions are shared by the hundreds of thousands of teachers who have engaged in strikes in recent months in Poland, Morocco, France, Algeria and Mexico, to name only a handful of countries. In every instance, the aspirations of educators come into conflict with the politicians and union bureaucracies that serve the financial elite. This makes ever more urgent the fight to build independent rank-and-file committees to unite all teacher struggles into a common offensive to secure quality education. These widespread school conditions result from a decades-long campaign by the ruling capitalist class to protect corporate profits and wage war at the expense of the social programs, wages, benefits and living conditions of the working class. In Oregon, the state government has underfunded public schools by 24 percent to 38 percent since the Quality Education Commission (QEC) first began recording the figures in the 1990s. The QEC suggests that a minimum of $10.7 billion is needed for public schools to provide a high-quality education from preschool to graduation, requiring $2.5 billion be added to the $8.2 billion allocated in the previous 2017-2019 budget.

 More than 20,000 participate in Oregon walkouts for public education --More than 20,000 teachers participated in statewide one-day walkouts across Oregon on Wednesday to express their support for public education. They were joined by thousands of other students, school workers and families.Twenty-five districts were forced to close due to a lack of adequate staff and substitute teachers to operate, while in other districts, teachers left class early. Major rallies and protests took place in Portland, Salem, Eugene and Bend.Educators, like their counterparts across the United States and internationally, feel compelled to fight against the poor school conditions produced by nearly four decades of budget cuts and austerity. Overcrowded classrooms, high caseloads for nurses and school psychologists, and poorly funded Special Education and Arts programs have become the norm for public schools. The cuts to public education, which in Oregon have been carried out by the Democrats, have been drastic. Dithya, a ninth-grade student at Sunset High School, spoke with reporters at the Portland rally about the fate of education if nothing changes. “Class sizes are going to grow larger. Electives will get cut, since they aren’t necessary to graduation.” Her friend Isabella added, “At my sister’s school, they proposed cutting the whole Spanish program.”She continued, “Right now, teachers aren’t able to provide the best education, since they can’t pay attention to us like they’d like to. They can’t help each individual student, or take all our questions.”

Low-paid South Carolina teachers recruited for factory work -- A May 1 walkout and rally by South Carolina’s grossly underpaid teachers necessitated the closure of entire districts. The teachers, frustrated by overcrowded classrooms and pay that has not kept up with living costs, demanded a 10 percent pay raise and a cost-of-living adjustment for retired teachers. Their frustrations have become a boon for employers.South Carolina’s teachers make much less than the national average and they struggle to teach in classrooms where the maximum student-teacher ratio has not been enforced by the state for years. As a result, South Carolina hemorrhages thousands of teachers yearly as educators flee to professions that will allow them to pay their student loans and care for their families.Those who do not leave the profession are frequently forced to work second, third, even fourth jobs in order to string together a viable income. In April, thePost and Courier, a daily newspaper based in Charleston, interviewed some of the state’s teachers who must work extra jobs. One man spoke of grading papers during down time at his job as a pedicab operator. Others recounted their experiences in retail, at restaurants, and as tourist guides.“They want master level teachers but they don’t offer to pay for any of the schooling,” one woman told the Post and Courier. “I’m really passionate about it, and I really enjoy going to school, but now I’m kind of regretting it because I don’t know how I’m going to pay my bills.”At least one South Carolina company has begun focusing almost entirely upon hiring teachers to fill warehouse positions. Nephron Pharmaceuticals, located in West Columbia, has begun hiring teachers for tasks such as folding cardboard boxes and labeling syringes. The company recently hired 650 retired and currently working teachers. Lou Kennedy, Nephron’s CEO, told Education Week, “I didn’t have any idea that many teachers work second jobs. And a lot of them [are] waiting tables, or working at Starbucks. And there, they’re only making $7 or $8, or maybe that plus tip. I figured this [hiring strategy] could be a good thing.”

Why is teaching becoming a less appealing occupation? One answer is right in front of us -- Many of us have relatives or friends who were dismissed from their schools during the recession or kept their jobs but faced cuts in school funding and other challenges affecting their work lives. News reports are replete with stories of teachers who quit or who are thinking about quitting. And the most recent PDK poll of American’s views of public education found that more than half of the parents surveyed said they do not want their children to become public school teachers—the largest share since the question was introduced in 1969 and the first time a majority of parents answered this way. The U.S Department of Education closes the school year with the publication of the Teacher Shortage Areas. Researchers point to a lack of available individuals to fill teaching positions as a factor in the teacher shortage, which we explore in a series of reports being released this spring and summer. The shortage is estimated to exceed 110,000 teachers missing in the current school year, according to our colleagues at the Learning Policy Institute. Why is the role of educating our children becoming so unpopular? The explanations people would provide for the declining popularity of teaching are many and may vary depending on the respondent and her or his connection to the profession. Still, it is pretty likely that low teacher pay would be a common response, either as a single cause or as an important feature in a constellation of causes that includes disrespect from policymakers, underfunding (which leaves teachers without the supports to handle their day-to-day needs), and disinvestment in the professional supports that help teachers adapt to changing conditions, continue their professional education, and collaborate with one another—key elements of any professional occupation. It’s likely that explanations from teachers themselves would emphasize both the lack of professional supports that reflect a lack of appreciation for teaching as a professional like any other profession and the pay penalty they live with. Teacher complaints about low pay are backed by the evidence. The teacher weekly wage penalty—how much less teachers make than comparable college-educated workers—is both very large (21.4 percent in 2018) and has grown nonstop since our colleagues Sylvia Allegretto and Larry Mishel have been tracking the penalty. In our new report Low Relative Pay and High Incidence of Moonlighting Play a Role in the Teacher Shortage, Particularly in High-poverty Schools we find that more than half of the teachers (59.0 percent) moonlight—performing extra work for pay inside or outside of the school system to supplement their salaries. That share, which uses data from the 2015–2016 school year, is up from 55.6 percent in the 2011–2012 school year.

DeVos accuses media of using her name as 'clickbait' -Education Secretary Betsy DeVos on Monday said that she thinks the media uses her name for “clickbait.” "As much as many in the media use my name as clickbait or try to make it all about me, it’s not,” she said while speaking to journalists at a conference in Baltimore, according to Politico. DeVos, one of the longest-serving members of President Trump’s Cabinet added that she doesn’t like the attention and increased spotlight that comes with her position atop the Education Department.“I don’t love being up on stage or on any kind of platform. I’m an introvert,” she said.Some of DeVos’s past comments have created media firestorms, such as when she defended her department’s rollback of guidance meant to protect transgender students or proposed cuts to the Special Olympics's budget.DeVos blasted reporters after the Special Olympics comments, calling the coverage "shameful."Politico notes DeVos has been less accessible to the media than previous heads of the Education Department.Some of DeVos's controversial comments have led Democratic lawmakers to question her fitness for the role, with Sen. Amy Klobuchar(D-Minn.) last month saying DeVos “shouldn't be in her job.”DeVos's confirmation in the Senate was among the most contentious of all of Trump’s nominees.She was confirmed by the Senate 51-50 after Vice President Pence cast the tie-breaking vote.

Third parent pleads guilty in college admissions scandal --A Los Angeles-area executive became the third parent and eighth overall defendant to plead guilty in connection with the college admissions bribery scandal Tuesday, according to the Los Angeles Times.Stephen Semprevivo pleaded guilty to honest services mail fraud and conspiracy to commit fraud in Boston, with prosecutors recommending an 18-month prison sentence, a year of supervised release and a $95,000 fine as part of the plea agreement, according to the newspaper.Semprevivo allegedly paid $400,000 to Key Worldwide Foundation, a charity operated by consultant William Singer, as a “side door” to secure admission to Georgetown University for his son as a tennis recruit. Singer allegedly fabricated a tennis career for Singer’s son, with the application falsely claiming he had made the Nike Federation All Academic Athletic Team and played tennis throughout high school, according to the Times. After Semprevivo’s son was accepted in April 2016, Singer invoiced him $400,000 for a “private contribution,” according to the Times, which Semprevivo paid to the Key Worldwide Foundation. Semprevivo’s son did not join the tennis team upon enrolling at Georgetown.

LA Father Who Paid $400K For Georgetown Tennis Coach Bribe Pleads Guilty In Admissions Scandal -As more rocks are being turned over, more parents are falling at the hands of the world's largest college admissions scandal. Most recently, an executive from Los Angeles pled guilty to conspiracy charges for paying $400,000 in bribes to William Rick Singer, the scandal's mastermind, in order to get his son into Georgetown University, according to USA Today.  Stephen Semprevivo struck a deal with prosecutors and pled guilty to conspiracy to commit mail fraud and honest services mail fraud. Semprevivo is an executive at Cydcor, a “privately held provider of outsourced sales teams.” He appeared before US District Court Judge Indira Talwani, who accepted the plea agreement earlier this week. He is now the third parent and the eighth overall defendant to plead guilty. Another 11 parents have agreed to plead guilty, but will have to wait until their hearings toward the end of the month to have their pleas ruled on. Semprevivo wrote a $400,000 check from his family trust to a nonprofit operated by Singer in April 2016 after his son was admitted into Georgetown. A portion of that money was then paid to tennis coach Gordon Ernst, who had falsely designated Semprevivo's son as a Georgetown tennis player to facilitate his entry to the university.

Parents bribe service academies to not accept their children’s applications — As a string of high-profile college bribery scandals come to light, the FBI has also uncovered that affluent parents are covertly paying service academy admissions to reject applications coming from their children, sources confirmed today.“I wouldn’t want my child to suffer through a service academy either,” says chief investigator Gary Burkmire. “But there’s a right way and a wrong way for your kids to get ahead in life, and helping them avoid a subpar education through lies and crime is not the way to do it.”Parents with children in service academies are outraged. “So I, a poor single mother, have to watch my son go to West Point while rich parents have the privilege of seeing their kids amount to something in life?” asks Sheila Jones. “The wealthy elite really are evil.” Burkmire has emphasized that the bribes were done without the knowledge of the children. “Let’s make sure not to blame the kids here,” he told reporters. “Many of them were bright enough to be able to avoid a military education all on their own, but their parents didn’t have enough faith and made things worse.”

Almost Half Of College Students Are Going Hungry- Survey - As thousands of college students prepare to graduate in the upcoming weeks, many of them will be stressed out, deeply in debt, and very hungry according to a new survey from Temple University's Hope Center for College, Community and Justice.  A senior at Lehman College in the Bronx dreams of starting her day with breakfast. An undergraduate at New York University said he has been so delirious from hunger, he’s caught himself walking down the street not realizing where he’s going. A health sciences student at Stony Brook University on Long Island describes “poverty naps,” where she decides to go to sleep rather than deal with her hunger pangs. .. It was at a pantry at SUNY Stony Brook where Jocelyn Chen, a volunteer there, spoke of her poverty naps. She said that many students are unable to visit the food pantry between classes, or to go off campus to find cheap food without a car.   “When you’re in class for, like, three hours, it’s hard to concentrate when you’re hungry,” she said. Back at the dorm, she explained, it’s easier to take “poverty naps” than to forage for something to eat. –NYT   According to the survey, 44% of students from over 100 institutions said they had been "food insecure" over the past 30 days.  Lehman College senior Kassandra Montes counts herself among them - having to take out a $5,000 loan this year in order to graduate, while living in a Harlem homeless shelter while attending classes. She says she works two part-time jobs and can only set aside $15 per week for food. Most of her groceries come from the campus food pantry, and she almost always skips breakfast in order to feed her 4-year-old son.  Another struggling student, Calvin Ramsay, accumulated "massive amounts of debt" while attending NYU, and told the Times that "food was a major obstacle -- especially in Manhattan."

Edu-geddon- Nearly 40% Of Graduating College Seniors Feel Unprepared For A Career - Nearly 40 percent of graduating college seniors feel unprepared for their future careers, according to a recent survey. What’s more, the survey found that students going into college as freshmen felt more prepared for a career than graduating seniors leaving with a degree. The LendEDU-College Pulse survey found that 36 percent of seniors don’t feel prepared for their career, compared to 20 percent of freshmen, noting as students “move through college and get closer to graduating, they lose confidence in their career outlook.” The survey, conducted between December and mid-March, asked 7,749 college students: “Do you think that college is sufficiently preparing you for your future career?” Mike Brown, a spokesman for LendEDU, said these stats should urge campus leaders to make changes.“Hopefully it can influence them, saying you know, ‘Maybe we’re not doing enough for students once they are getting closer to graduation, maybe we should do more and be proactive in our outreach to students, especially upperclassmen, trying to see if they are ready,’” Brown told The College Fix in a telephone interview. Brown outlined ways colleges can help students be better prepared. In an article, he wrote that students could benefit from mandatory classes that address life after graduation, work-study programs, financial classes that focus on taxes, budgeting and proper credit card use, as well as proactive career centers. “Career services could outreach directly to students, make job fairs mandatory, or provide [academic] credit for more active use of a college’s career resources,” Brown stated.  “I don’t really know how much focus college administrators and career centers put into getting their students ready for the working world,” he said. “I think you would need to do a more comprehensive study on individual college career centers and departments and seeing if they are really helping.” The survey includes a list of 69 schools and their ranking. In order to be a part of the list, the school had to have answers from at least 30 students. The University of Notre Dame topped the list with 68 percent of students saying they do feel prepared, 21 percent saying they don’t, and 11 percent stating they are “not sure.” At the bottom of the list came the University of Houston, with 25 percent of students saying they do feel prepared, 48 percent saying they do not, and 27 percent in the “not sure” category.

Student Loan Forgiveness Program Offers False Hope, Rejects 99% of Applications - - Yves Smith - The infamous HAMP program, which the Administration revised so many times on the fly as to give incompetent and mendacious mortgage servicers air cover for failing to modify mortgages, at least had a stealth purpose. As Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said to the SIGTARP’s Neil Barofsky, it was to foam the runway for banks by spreading out foreclosures over time. But it’s not clear what the thinking was behind the 2007 Student Loan Forgiveness Program, except to create better eyewash. The ostensible goal was to give student debt relief for borrowers who went into socially useful but not>well remunerated lines of work. But not only were the eligible employers (note employers, not job types) poorly specified as “public service” which includes some highly paid employees at not-for-profits, other elements of the program were also drafted badly. Throw in lousy servicers, revisions to an already confusing program, and conservative sabotage into the mix, and you’ve created conditions where many make what they think are the qualifying 120 payments, only to have their application for forgiveness nixed. Only 1% of 73,000 applicants have gotten relief. Admittedly, 25% of the rejections were due to “missing information,” which means some might eventually be approved. But as of June 30 last year, 29,000 applications had been reviewed and only 1% were approved, with 28% needing more information. You’d think by now that if a meaningful percentage of the then 28% with gaps had had them filled, the proportion being approved would be rising over time. The broad outlines of the abject failure of this scheme aren’t new but the Wall Street Journal provides a useful overview and update. The program, launched in 2007, created a series of conditions for eligibility. Per the Journal: To qualify for forgiveness, borrowers must work for a government entity or nonprofit, hold a certain type of loan, enroll in one of several specific repayment plans and make 120 full and on-time monthly payments, or 10 years’ worth. Falling short on almost any of these requirements can mean disqualification. The article describes a litany of problems. First, only students who had Federal student loans qualified, not ones with private Federally guaranteed loans. Servicers too often enrolled borrowers into forgiveness programs for which they did not qualify or gave incorrect payment amounts. And even though the Trump Administration has made its antipathy for the program evident by eliminating it in its budget announced in March, it’s not as if the Obama Administration did all that much to make it work.

America's $1.6 Trillion Student Debt Crisis Triggers Suicidal Thoughts- Survey --There are currently 44 million student loan borrowers who owe approximately $1.6 trillion in student debt. Student loan borrowers are feeling the pressure of insurmountable debts as the economy slows, wages stagnate, and borrowing costs rise. As a result of taking out too much debt, new evidence shows an undeniable impact on borrowers' mental health.Student Loan Planner surveyed 829 people, which revealed shocking data about debt load, student loan depression, and suicide.As debt loads increase, so does the borrower's likelihood of suicidal thoughts, the study stated.Researchers found 1 in 9 borrowers who owe $80,000 to $150,000 contemplated suicide because of their debt."The feeling of hopelessness gets you into a place where you feel like you can't recover," said Motlagh, a clinical psychologist with $300,000 in student loans. The survey notes that borrowers with debt loads between $80k to $240k have the most suicidal thoughts. The borrower with debt loads between $80k to $240k has a high debt-to-income ratio, could be hard to refinance at a reasonable rate that will bring monthly payments to a manageable level. Borrowers above $240k tend to have higher incomes and can refinance their loans at a better price than $80k to $240k borrower. In terms of profession, dentists were the most unstable people in the survey with at least 40 respondents. Veterinarians and lawyers also had regular suicidal thoughts. One and 17 respondents knew someone who took their own life because of student loans.The survey found that 53% of respondents had, at some point, experienced a severe case of depression due to their debts. A whopping 90% of the respondents had developed an anxiety disorder due to student debt.

Facebook's effort to stop suicides by monitoring your posts reveals a worrisome gap between tech giants and healthcare experts - Facebook knew there was a problem when a string of people used the platform to publicly broadcast their suicides in real time.  After the company rolled out a video livestreaming tool called "Facebook Live," several people used it to broadcast themselves taking their own lives. First it was a 14-year-old girl and then a 33-year-old man, both in the US. Later, in the fall, a young man in Turkey broadcast himself dying by suicide.Facebook, led by Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg, tasked its safety-and-security team with doing something about it.The result was Facebook's suicide-monitoring algorithm, which has been running since 2017 and was involved in sending emergency responders to people more than 3,500 times as of last fall, according to the company.  Using pattern-recognition technology, the tool identifies posts and livestreams that appear to express intents of suicide. It scans the text in a post, along with the comments on it, such as "Are you OK?" When a post is ranked as potentially suicidal, it is sent first to a content moderator and then to a trained staff member tasked with notifying emergency responders. Harvard psychiatrist and tech consultant John Torous only learned of the tool's existence last year, from a journalist. He said he's concerned it may be doing more harm than good.  "We as the public are partaking in this grand experiment, but we don't know if it's useful or not," Torous told Business Insider last week.  Torous has spent years collaborating with tech giants like Microsoft on scientific research. The reason he hadn't heard about Facebook's suicide-monitoring algorithm was because Facebook hasn't shared information about the tool with researchers such as him, or with the broader medical and scientific community. In fact, Facebook hasn't published any data on how its tool works. But without public information on the tool, Torous said big questions about Facebook's suicide-monitoring tool are impossible to answer. He is worried the tool might home in on the wrong users, discourage frank discussions about mental health on the platform, or escalate or even create, a mental-health crisis where there wasn't one.

Aging baby boomers are about to push Alzheimer’s disease rates sky high – She had researched Alzheimer's disease and its effects on the brain for years, but it wasn't until her own mother's memory began to slip that Dr. Eva Feldman, a University of Michigan neurologist, truly grasped how devastating the disease is.  "I learned more about dementia and Alzheimer’s disease spending lots of hours in that memory care unit than I did as a long-standing, practicing neurologist," said Feldman, who is the director of the University of Michigan's Program for Neurology Research & Discovery. "The people in the memory care unit, some were very violent. Some were very passive. Some were very young with really severe memory loss with early-onset Alzheimer’s. You could see the whole myriad of presentations and you could understand what an enormously difficult disease that it is for the patient, but also for the families."  In her work, but also while visiting with her mom, Feldman considered the enormity of the Alzheimer's problem: About 5.8 million Americans now have the disease, according to the Alzheimer's Association. That number will climb to at least 13.8 million by 2050, a 138% rise, and as many as 1 in 3 people who live to be 85 in the United States will die with Alzheimer's disease.  "We are really in an epidemic," Feldman said, driven largely by baby boomers (those born between 1946 and 1964), who are growing older and coming to an age when the disease most commonly strikes.  Alzheimer's disease is a form of dementia. Little is known about specifically what combination of factors causes Alzheimer's disease, though scientists say genetics, lifestyle and environmental exposures most likely play into it.   Dr. Rebecca Edelmayer, director of scientific engagement for the Alzheimer’s Association, explained that three specific brain changes define the disease:

• A protein called amyloid beta builds up in the brain, forming plaques.
• Another protein called tau also accumulates and forms tangles in the brain.
• As this happens, the brain's nerve cells die and the brain actually shrinks in size.

The most commonly recognized early symptom is a memory problem, said Jennifer Lepard, the president and CEO of the Alzheimer's Association Greater Michigan Chapter, but the disease doesn't always initially present that way. "Before memory loss, it can even be what we would call an effect on your executive functioning, so it’s your ability to process information, make good decisions on complicated factors, planning," she said. "One of the best examples of that is sometimes people begin to have trouble with finances. People who have always paid the bills, run the household budget, all of a sudden can't. "One of the reasons it's not always easy to see the memory issues up front is it’s not always the earliest and most prevalent sign, but also because people that have what are called high cognitive reserves – people who have a lot of education, who maybe had done very demanding jobs in the past and really utilized their brain a lot – are sometimes very good at hiding symptoms and overcompensating. A lot of times, they know they’re having some memory issues and some problems, but they are pretty good at making sure that you don’t see it."

 The Most Medicated Country In The World- 46% Of Americans Have Taken A Pharma Drug Within The Last 30 Days -  If it seems like about half the country is on drugs, that is because it is actually true.  According to a new survey from the National Center for Health Statistics, almost half of all Americans have taken a pharmaceutical drug within the past 30 days, and that officially makes us “the most medicated country in the world”.  And needless to say, those dealing these drugs are becoming exceedingly wealthy at our expense.  The average American spends $1,200 a year on prescription drugs, but of course many Americans spend far more than that and others spend nothing at all.  In recent years there has been a tremendous backlash against the big pharmaceutical corporations, because many of them have become exceedingly greedy.  As you will see below, prices have been raised on 650 different drugs this year alone.  Once they get their claws into you, the pharmaceutical giants want to get every last penny out of you that they possibly can. Without a doubt, there are some pharmaceutical drugs that greatly help people. In fact, many people wouldn’t be alive today without them.On the other hand, it has been estimated that Americans spend somewhere around $200 billion a year on drugs that they do not need, and this new survey from the National Center for Health Statistics discovered that 46 percent of all Americans have taken a prescription drug within the last 30 days…

Opioid Prescription Rates Tumble In Latest Sign Trump-Led Crackdown Is Working - Mass arrests of 'pill-mill' doctors, dozens of investigations and lawsuits into opioid manufacturers and the wholesalers who distribute the pills to pharmacies and President Trump's sweeping plan to combat the opioid crisis are finally starting to make a dent in the legal opioid trade.According to Bloomberg, the volume of prescriptions for opioids fell the most in a quarter century last year as doctors have become increasingly cautious about prescribing the drugs for fear that they might be diverted to the black market. The YoY decline for 2018 was 17%. Since 2011, when prescriptions for opioids peaked, prescriptions have dropped 43%.But news about falling prescribing rates might distract from the fact that this is too little, too late. Most opioid addicts have long since switched from prescription drugs to heroin. Much of the heroin supply in the US has been cut with fentanyl, which has caused overdose deaths to skyrocket. Drug-overdose deaths reached an all-time high of 70,000 in 2017. Since the opioid crisis first started taking shape in the late 1990s, the number of deaths have surpassed 700,000.And as former FDA head Scott Gottlieb said during an appearance on CNBC's "Squawk Box" Thursday morning, all the attention given to the opioid crisis has distracted from the burgeoning crisis of methamphetamine use in the US. In both cases, much of these street drugs have been flowing into the US from Mexico.Also, while Beijing has repeatedly pledged to curb illicit sales of fentanyl, there's little evidence that the flow of the deadly synthetic opioid from China has at all abated. And even with these declines, the volume of pills being prescribed is still huge: There were enough pills prescribed last year to give every adult in the US the equivalent of 34 pills (though that's down from 72 in 2011).

Scientist- The Food Crisis Will Have Humans Eating Maggots For Protein -  As an alternative to meat, one scientist has suggested that humans will acquire the habit of eating maggots in order to reach their protein intake requirements. “Maggot sausages” will be the “meat” of the future according to an Australian scientist, Dr. Louwrens Hoffman. Food scientists at the University of Queensland in Brisbane, Australia are incorporating insects such as maggots and locusts into a range of specialty foods, including sausage, as well as formulating sustainable insect-based feeds for the livestock themselves. “Would you eat a commercial sausage made from maggots? What about other insect larvae and even whole insects like locusts? The biggest potential for sustainable protein production lies with insects and new plant sources,” said Dr. Hoffman.Hoffman says that the meat industry is not sustainable, but people can start eating insects instead.“An overpopulated world is going to struggle to find enough protein unless people are willing to open their minds, and stomachs, to a much broader notion of food,” said Hoffman.The scientist says that conventional livestock production will soon be unable to meet global demand for meat.  That means that other “fillers” and alternatives will be needed to supplement the food supply with sufficient protein sources, according to The New York Post.“In other words, insect protein needs to be incorporated into existing food products as an ingredient,” he says. “One of my students has created a very tasty insect ice cream.”  The Queensland Alliance for Agriculture and Food Innovation (QAAFI) team is focusing on disguising insects in pre-prepared foods, says Hoffman, as studies have shown Westerners shy away from eating whole insects.

Got Milk- Cows, Not Needed- Scientists Bioengineer Milk -Mish - Scientists believe they are on the cusp of a huge change in the way we produce milk in history. Cows won't be needed. Please consider Made Without Humans or Cows: Inside the Race to Bioengineer Milk.From Silicon Valley to Switzerland, hundreds of millions of dollars are being pumped into a new technology to produce “real milk” - containing identical casein and whey proteins to the genuine article - but without any humans, cows or other animals involved at all.There is a lot at stake. The global dairy industry was worth $413bn in 2017 while the market for infant formula is expected to top $70bn this year, according to Save the Children.From animal cruelty on factory farms to deforestation and a rising portion of the emissions linked to climate change, raising cattle to produce milk is facing a growing reputational challenge.“If you see how cows are treated in the milking process… from a moral standpoint it's appalling to most people,” says Niccolo Manzoni, founding partner at Five Seasons Ventures, an agricultural technology fund based in Paris.A study published by the World Health Organisation just last week involving almost 30,000 children across 16 countries suggested breast-feeding has a “protective effect” in staving off fat tissue. Bottle-fed babies, the study found, are 25pc more likely to end up obese.  Corporate giants such as US-based DowDuPont, BASF, Nestle, as well as start-ups such as Sugarlogix, Gnubiotics Sciences and Jennewein Biotechnologie are busy pouring money into lab research. They are developing products that are very similar to human milk, a complex hybrid of over 1000 proteins and a unique ingredient called human milk oligosaccharide (HMO). An udderless future is eventually in the cards. But even if scientists perfect the technology, how far off is public acceptance?  Farmers will push to ban it. That's for sure.  What about labeling? Using the term "milk" for such products will likely be restricted. Would you drink bioengineered milk?

More Than 34,000 Measles Infections Recorded In Europe So Far This Year, WHO Says -- Apparently, the US isn't the only country experiencing one of the worst measles outbreaks in decades (though it might be the only country that had at one time in the not-too-distant past declared the disease to be eradicated). The WHO warned on Tuesday that Europe has recorded a total of 34,300 measles cases in 42 countries, putting the region on track to record more than 200,000 cases in 2019, more than double the roughly 80,000 cases reported last year, which was nearly triple the number of cases reported in 2017, according to Reuters. So far, the vast majority of cases have been in Ukraine, which recently completed a contentious election held against the backdrop of a still-simmering conflict in the Eastern part of the country.  Despite rising vaccination rates, the WHO said large gaps in coverage in troubled areas like Ukraine, Albania and Romania have contributed greatly to the outbreak. "Although the European Region achieved its highest ever estimated coverage for the second dose of measles vaccination in 2017 (90%)," the WHO said, "countries with measles outbreaks have experienced a range of challenges in recent years including a decline or stagnation in overall routine immunization coverage in some cases, low coverage at subnational level or among some marginalized groups and immunity gaps in older populations." Meanwhile, in the US, CDC officials have confirmed an additional 60 cases of measles have been diagnosed since late last month, bringing the total to more than 760, according to NBC News. The WHO added that if the response isn't timely enough, the virus will find its way into more pockets of vulnerable individuals, and could eventually spread to more countries, or even beyond the European region.  The death toll across the region has climbed to 13, with most of the deaths occurring in Ukraine.

As measles cases spread, the tinder for more outbreaks is growing – STAT - U.S. health officials are putting all they have into extinguishing measles outbreaks, many of them raging in cities throughout the country. The reality, though, is that there is a growing amount of tinder afoot, a fact that will make it increasing difficult to battle these blazes, experts fear.In recent years, the percentage of children who have received one or more doses of measles-containing vaccine has remained relatively stable, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. But that stability masks the fact that, over the past few decades the overall size of the population that is either unvaccinated or undervaccinated has been growing.  With each cohort of kids born to parents who distrust or fear vaccines, the number of people susceptible to the measles virus expands. At the same time, there is a growing population of adults who were children in the early days of measles vaccination whose immunity may have worn off. (During their youth, only one dose of vaccination was recommended, instead of the standard two-dose treatment today.) Introduce the spark of the highly contagious measles virus into these populations and the tinder will be set ablaze. “I’m very concerned where this is all heading,” said Dr. Peter Hotez, professor of pediatrics and dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine, who describes this year’s measles activity as “a wakeup call.” “At what point do all of these pockets of measles transmission start becoming confluent? I think that’s the big worry,” he said. On Monday the CDC announced that the number of cases so far this year has topped 700, the highest rate in a quarter century. With the year only a third of the way through and measles spreading in a number of outbreaks across the country, this year’s total could well top the 1994’s 963 cases.

 A student sued because he didn’t want the chickenpox vaccine. Then he got chickenpox - Two months after going to court over a chickenpox policy, an unvaccinated teen came down with the illness, his lawyer said Wednesday.Jerome Kunkel sued the local health department because of a policy temporarily barring students who aren't immune against chickenpox from coming to classes and extracurricular activities at Our Lady of the Sacred Heart/Assumption Academy in Walton, Kentucky.The high school senior refused the vaccine, citing his faith. Kunkel's father, Bill, told CNN affiliate WLWT they object to the particular vaccine because he believed it was derived from "aborted fetuses." Kunkel contracted chickenpox last week and has recovered, his attorney Christopher Wiest told CNN by phone Wednesday. Kunkel went back to school on Wednesday.  Kunkel has been out of school since mid-March, Wiest said.  The Northern Kentucky Health Department announced a policy in March after a chickenpox outbreak affected 32 people, which is 13% of the student body, at the school. Students who weren't vaccinated, or were not immune, were asked to stay out of school for at least 21 days after the last case of the virus, the health department said. Kunkel filed the lawsuit over the health department's decision, especially because it affected his basketball season.  None of the basketball team members were vaccinated for chickenpox, the school's principal had told a health official, according to the judge's ruling obtained by CNN affiliate WXIX.  Kunkel's attorney said preventing the students from going to school fell short of containing the illness."Their ban didn't stop these kids from going to church together," Wiest said Wednesday. "Their ban is going to be ineffective from the start. The quickest way to get them back to school is to get it naturally."The Northern Kentucky Health Department expressed concern over Wiest's comments about students contracting the virus so they may become immune. "Encouraging the spread of an acute infectious disease in a community demonstrates a callous disregard for the health and safety of friends, family, neighbors, and unsuspecting members of the general public," the department said in a statement Wednesday. "A person who has contracted chickenpox can be infectious for up to 2 days before experiencing the rash that is associated with the virus."

A Vaccine For Dengue, Just Approved By The FDA, Has A Dark History - The U.S. Food and Drug Administration just approved one of the most sought after vaccines in recent decades. It's the world's first vaccine to prevent dengue fever — a disease so painful that its nickname is "breakbone fever." The vaccine, called Dengvaxia, is aimed at helping children in Puerto Rico and other U.S. territories where dengue is a problem. But this vaccine has a dark — and deadly — history. One that has led to criminal charges in the Philippines, sparked national panic and fueled a massive measles outbreak that has already killed more than 355 people. That story begins on a stage in Manila in 2016, with a massive vaccine campaign to inoculate nearly 1 million schoolchildren with Dengvaxia. The goal was to save thousands of kids' lives and prevent an estimated 10,000 hospitalizations over a five-year period. But in the end, estimates are that more than 100,000 Philippine children received a vaccine that health officials say increased their risk of a severe and sometimes deadly condition. In addition, other children who received the vaccine may have been endangered because, their parents alleged, they were not in good health.The French pharmaceutical company Sanofi Pasteur spent 20 years — and about $2 billion — to develop Dengvaxia. The company tested it in several large trials with more than 30,000 kids globally and published the results in the prestigious New England Journal of Medicine. "When I read the New England Journal article, I almost fell out of my chair," says Dr. Scott Halstead, who has studied dengue for more than 50 years with the U.S. military. When Halstead looked at the vaccine's safety data in the clinical trial, he knew right away there was a problem.  For some children, the vaccine didn't seem to work. In fact, Halstead says, it appeared to be harmful. When those kids caught dengue after being vaccinated, the vaccine appeared to worsen the disease in some instances. Specifically, for children who had never been exposed to dengue, the vaccine seemed to increase the risk of a deadly complication called plasma leakage syndrome, in which blood vessels start to leak the yellow fluid of the blood.  “Then everything gets worse, and maybe it's impossible to save your life," Halstead says. "A child can go into shock."  Despite these concerns, in July 2016, the World Health Organization went ahead and recommended the vaccine for all children ages 9 to 16.

FDA Study: Sunscreen Chemicals Seep Into the Bloodstream - A U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) study has found that chemicals used in common sunscreens end up in the blood at levels well above the trigger for further testing, Reuters reported. The study, published in the Journal of the American Medical Association Monday, found subjects' blood had levels of avobenzone, oxybenzone, octocrylene and ecamsule substantially above the 0.5 nanograms per milliliter (ng/mL) point at which testing is required. One of the chemicals, oxybenzone, has been shown to harm coral reefs, and sunscreens containing it have been banned in coral habitats from Hawaii to Key West, Florida.  The study authors said the results should not stop people from using sunscreen, which is an important way to protect against skin cancer."The fact that an ingredient is absorbed through the skin and into the body does not mean the ingredient is unsafe. Rather, this finding calls for further testing to determine the safety of that ingredient for repeated use," Center for Drug Evaluation and Research (CDER) Director Dr. Janet Woodcock and CDER's Division of Nonprescription Drug Products Director Dr. Theresa M. Michele wrote in an FDA statement about the study.

Drinking Water Crisis Update: Supplies in 43 States Found Contaminated With Harmful PFAS Chemicals --Millions of people across the U.S. have been exposed to toxic PFAS chemicals in their drinking water, according to a new report from Northeastern University and the Environmental Working Group. The report found that at least 610 sites in 43 states were contaminated with the fluorinated compounds known as PFAS chemicals as of March 2019, including the drinking water systems for around 19 million people. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), exposure to PFAS chemicals can lead to increased risk of cancer as well as immune, behavioral and reproductive health issues.  The Environmental Working Group said that when their interactive map was last updated in July 2018, there were 172 locations in 40 states showing PFAS contamination. Based on the new data, Michigan tops the list of states with the most contaminated sites on the map with 192, followed by California with 47 and New Jersey with 43. PFAS contamination was found at 117 military bases across the country, due to use in aviation-grade firefighting foam. The U.S Department of Defense officials estimate that it will cost $2 billion to clean up the contamination at all bases in the U.S., Military Times reported."This should be frightening to all Americans in many ways," David Andrews, a senior scientist with the Environmental Working Group, told CBS News. "These chemicals ... don't break down in our body and they don't break down in our environment and they actually stick to our blood. So levels tend to increase over time." PFAS chemicals have been manufactured since the 1940s and are used in a wide range of consumer products, including cosmetics, paint, adhesives, food packaging, furniture and cleaning products, as well as water, oil and grease repellants, HuffPost reported. Because they take thousands of years to break down, PFAS chemicals easily find their way into drinking water, lakes and rivers, and wildlife. The CDC says that basically everyone in the U.S. have some level of PFAS chemicals in their blood, usually due to consuming contaminated water or food. Currently, there are no enforceable federal limits for PFAS chemicals in drinking water, but the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) does have a non-binding health advisory level of 70 parts per trillion, the Daily Mail reported. For the report, the Environmental Working Group included all locations where PFAS were found, even if the concentration was less than the health advisory level. The organization has proposeda 1 part per trillion limit for PFAS chemicals in drinking water.

Mapping PFAS Crisis: New Data Reveals 19 Million Americans In 43 States Exposed To Toxic Chemicals - Tens of millions of Americans in 43 states may have been exposed to to xic fluorinated compounds known as PFAS in their drinking water, according to the non-profit Environmental Working Group (EWG) and the Social Science Environmental Health Research Institute, at Northeastern University.The report shows PFAS chemicals have exposed upwards of 19 million through contaminated groundwater. Researchers found 610 contaminated locations ranging from public water systems, military bases, military and civilian airports, industrial plants, dumps, and firefighter training sites. PFAS chemicals were used in thousands of industrial applications and consumer products such as apparels, carpeting, food packaging, firefighting foams, and metal plating. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has warned that the toxic chemicals are present in the blood samples of the general population. Prior studies have shown the dangerous chemicals have been linked to weakened childhood immunity, thyroid disease, cancer, and other major health issues. "The Environmental Protection Agency has utterly failed to address PFAS with the seriousness this crisis demands, leaving local communities and states to grapple with a complex problem rooted in the failure of the federal chemical regulatory system," said Ken Cook, president of EWG. "EPA must move swiftly to set a truly health-protective legal limit for all PFAS chemicals, requiring utilities to clean up contaminated water supplies." The map below locates 610 places in 43 states that have dangerously high levels of PFAS chemicals in groundwater. Data from the US Department of Defense and public water utility reports were also included in the map. This additional data shows 117 military sites, including 77 military airports, which have high levels of PFAS firefighting foam.

Trump EPA Ignored Its Own Scientists' Calls to Ban Asbestos, 'Bombshell' Report Shows -- In a report that elicited calls for congressional action, The New York Times revealed Wednesday that "senior officials at the Environmental Protection Agency disregarded the advice of their own scientists and lawyers in April when the agency issued a rule that restricted but did not ban asbestos."  Asbestos is a group of fibrous, heat-resistant minerals used in manufactured goods, particularly building materials. According to the World Health Organization, "All types of asbestos cause lung cancer, mesothelioma, cancer of the larynx and ovary, and asbestosis (fibrosis of the lungs)."  EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler said in a statement last month that the agency's new rule "gives us unprecedented authorities to protect public health" and block certain products from the market. However, environmental and public health advocates raised concerns at the time about loopholes that remain, with one critic calling the regulation "toothless." Criticism of the rule resurfaced Wednesday when the Times reported on a pair of internal EPA memos from last August, in which more than a dozen agency experts wrote: Rather than allow for (even with restrictions) any new uses for asbestos, EPA should seek to ban all new uses of asbestos because the extreme harm from this chemical substance outweighs any benefit — and because there are adequate alternatives to asbestos.  "The sheer number of lives cut short and families destroyed from asbestos exposure demand nothing less than an outright ban," Melanie Benesh, legislative attorney at the Environmental Working Group, said in a statement. "I can't think of an easier vote for members of Congress to cast than for a bill that bans a substance responsible for the deaths of so many." "If Administrator Wheeler and the Trump administration won't act," said Benesh, "then Congress must by passing this critical piece of legislation that finally bans asbestos."

California, Nation’s Top User of Chlorpyrifos, Announces Ban on Brain-Damaging Pesticide - California will ban a brain-damaging pesticide that the Trump administration's U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has delayed banning at the national level, the state announced Wednesday. Chlorpyrifos, which is used on almonds, citrus, grapes, cotton, walnuts and other crops, has been shown to harm children's health and neurological development. "Countless people have suffered as a result of this chemical," California EPA (Cal-EPA) Secretary Jared Blumenfeld told The Guardian. "A lot of people live and work and go to school right next to fields that are being sprayed with chlorpyrifos … It's an issue of environmental health and justice." The ban will take effect between six months and two years, and is accompanied by $5.7 million in funds from Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom to help transition to safer alternatives, The Washington Post reported. California follows Hawaii and New York in approving a ban on the pesticide, and bills to ban chlorpyrifos are being considered by New Jersey, Connecticut and Oregon. The EPA had recommended banning the pesticide during the Obama administration, but Trump's first pick for EPA Administrator, Scott Pruitt, walked back those efforts in 2017. Environmental groups then sued the agency. In the most recent development in the ensuing legal battle, a federal judge in April ordered the EPA to make a final decision on a ban by mid-July. "Governor Newsom has done what the Trump administration has refused to do: protect children, farmworkers and millions of others from being exposed to this neurotoxic pesticide," Environmental Working Group President Ken Cook said in a statement reported by The Washington Post. "With the governor's action, California is once again showing leadership in protecting public health."

California defies Trump to ban pesticide linked to childhood brain damage - California is banning a widely used pesticide that has been linked to brain damage in children, a major victory for public health advocates who have long fought to outlaw the toxic chemical in the agricultural industry.The state ban on chlorpyrifos, a pesticide used on almonds, citrus, cotton, grapes, walnuts and other crops, follows years of research finding the chemical causes serious health effects in children, including impaired brain and neurological development. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) had moved to ban the chemical under Barack Obama, but the Trump administration reversed that effort, rejecting the scientific conclusions of its own government experts.“Countless people have suffered as a result of this chemical,” the California EPA secretary, Jared Blumenfeld, said in an interview on Wednesday. “A lot of people live and work and go to school right next to fields that are being sprayed with chlorpyrifos … It’s an issue of environmental health and justice.”The move in California, home to a vast agricultural sector responsible for growing a majority of the nation’s fruits and nuts, is the latest example of the state resisting Trump’s conservative agenda and policies. Environmental activists, however, have been pushing to stop chlorpyrifos use in the state for years in the wake of overwhelming evidence of harms caused by exposure.   Epidemiological studies have linked chlorpyrifos to a number of health conditions. Pregnant women living near fields and farms that use the chemical have an increased risk of having a child with autism. Exposure to low to moderate levels of chlorpyrifos during pregnancy have also been associated with lower IQs and memory problems. California officials cited a recent reviewby a state panel on toxic air contaminants, which found the effects in children could occur at lower levels than previously understood. “The science is definitive,” said Blumenfeld, adding that he hoped the move would spur the federal government to take action. “This job really should have been done by the US EPA.” Activists have accused the Trump administration of backing the interests of DowDuPont, a chlorpyrifos manufacturer whose predecessor donated to the president.

More bald eagles found dead on Maryland’s Eastern Shore as authorities struggle to solve ‘systemic’ poisonings - State and federal wildlife officials are investigating the deaths of at least seven bald eagles and a great horned owl on the Eastern Shore this spring, saying they signal a “systemic” problem with use of an illegal poison on the Delmarva Peninsula. The birds died under similar circumstances as 13 eagles found dead near Federalsburg in 2016. A In the years since the eagles died near Federalsburg, the agency has interviewed “numerous” landowners, farmers and hunters, but none provided any insights into the poisonings. “It is hard to believe that not one person has information of persons placing a toxic poison that has killed no fewer than twenty eagles in these areas,”   Maryland Natural Resources Police said the poisonings appear “to be a problem systemic to Maryland and specifically to the northern Delmarva Peninsula.” The first known poisoning this year occurred March 1 near Route 445 and Swan Creek Road in Chestertown, the authorities said. They found six bald eagles and a great horned owl there dead, along with other eagles that were treated for “significant injuries.” Since then, police said authorities have returned to the area “on several occasions” when landowners and property managers have reported finding additional eagle carcasses. Police did not say how many had been found. On April 3, authorities were called to a farm near Lewistown and Colby roads in the Cordova area of Talbot County where three bald eagles showed signs of poisoning after feeding on the carcass of a red fox. One of the eagles died at the scene; the others were treated and are in stable condition, police said. Police believe the deaths can be linked to bait laced with carbofuran, sold under the trade name Furadan. It is so toxic that the birds can be killed even by indirect exposure, if the poison was first consumed by an animal upon which a bird feeds.

Ninth Gray Whale in Two Months Washes Up Dead in Bay Area - A gray whale washed up dead on a San Francisco beach Monday morning, CNN reported, making the mammal the ninth to be found dead in the Bay Area this year. The whale was found on Ocean Beach and reported to the Marine Mammal Center at 6:30 a.m. Monday, theSan Francisco Chronicle reported. Scientists at the center will conduct a necropsy Tuesday to determine the cause of death. "The death of nine gray whales in the San Francisco Bay Area this year is a cause for serious concern and reinforces the need to continue to perform and share the results of these type of investigations with key decision-makers," the center's lead research pathologist Dr. Padraig Duignan said in a statement. The scientists do not yet know the age, sex or length of the whale found Monday. Eight other gray whales have washed up in the Bay Area in the past two months: three of them died after collisions with ships and four died of malnutrition, the center has concluded so far."Their skeleton seems to stick out more and more," Duignan told the told the Los Angeles Times earlier this month of the whales that died of starvation. Duignan said that the center usually sees only two or three dead gray whales a year. But the problem isn't limited to the Bay Area. More gray whales this year appear to be suffering from malnutrition as they migrate up the Pacific Coast from Mexico to the Arctic. Thirty-one dead whales have been found along the entire Pacific Coast, 21 in all of California. Living whales show signs of poor nutrition, and there are markedly fewer mother and calf pairs, the Los Angeles Times reported.

Salt-Water Fish Extinction Seen By 2048 - The apocalypse has a new date: 2048. That's when the world's oceans will be empty of fish, predicts an international team of ecologists and economists. The cause: the disappearance of species due to overfishing, pollution, habitat loss, and climate change. The study by Boris Worm, PhD, of Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia, -- with colleagues in the U.K., U.S., Sweden, and Panama -- was an effort to understand what this loss of ocean species might mean to the world. The researchers analyzed several different kinds of data. Even to these ecology-minded scientists, the results were an unpleasant surprise. "I was shocked and disturbed by how consistent these trends are -- beyond anything we suspected," Worm says in a news release. "This isn't predicted to happen. This is happening now," study researcher Nicola Beaumont, PhD, of the Plymouth Marine Laboratory, U.K., says in a news release. "If biodiversity continues to decline, the marine environment will not be able to sustain our way of life. Indeed, it may not be able to sustain our lives at all," Beaumont adds. Already, 29% of edible fish and seafood species have declined by 90% -- a drop that means the collapse of these fisheries. But the issue isn't just having seafood on our plates. Ocean species filter toxins from the water. They protect shorelines. And they reduce the risks of algae blooms such as the red tide. "A large and increasing proportion of our population lives close to the coast; thus the loss of services such as flood control and waste detoxification can have disastrous consequences," Worm and colleagues say.

Climate Change May Wipe Out Bengal Tigers, UN Analysis Finds - Climate change may wipe out the world's only mangrove-living Bengal tiger population in just 50 years, according to a new analysis conducted by the United Nations. According to the report, extreme temperatures and sea level rise are threatening a 4,000-square-mile diverse ecosystem known as the Sundarbans. Located in southern coastal Bangladesh, nearly three-quarters of land here is just a few feet above sea level."Spanning more than 10,000 square kilometers, the Sundarbans region of Bangladesh and India is the biggest mangrove forest on Earth, and also the most critical area for Bengal tiger survival," said lead-author Sharif Mukul, an assistant professor at Independent University Bangladesh, in a press release earlier this year.Researchers used framework found in two climatic scenarios as predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to compare computer simulations with current distribution data of land-use and landcover factoring in extreme weather events and sea-level rise. They found that climate change will have a "substantial negative impact" on habitats found in low-lying regions — and the animals that call them home.  "Our model predicts that due to the combined effect of climate change and sea-level rise, there will be no suitable Bengal tiger habitat remaining in the Sundarbans by 2070," wrote study authors in Science of the Total Environment.

U.N. biodiversity report says 1 million species face extinction. And humans will suffer as a result.- One million plant and animal species are on the verge of extinction, with alarming implications for human survival, according to a United Nations report released Monday. The landmark report by seven lead co-authors from universities across the world goes further than previous studies by directly linking the loss of species to human activity. It also shows how those losses are undermining food and water security, as well as human health.   More plants and animals are threatened with extinction now than any other period in human history, it concludes. Nature’s current rate of decline is unparalleled, and the accelerating rate of extinctions “means grave impacts on people around the world are now likely," it says. Nearly 150 authors from 50 nations worked for three years to compile the report by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services — a panel with 132 member nations, including the United States. Representatives of each member nation signed off on the findings.  The report emphasizes the effects humans have on animals that are key to their own survival. Pesticides sprayed by farmers kill pollinators such as bees and other insects will likely to have a devastating effect on crops. Homeowners contribute to the problem by purchasing “bug zappers” that target mosquitoes but also eliminate key pollinators such as butterflies and moths, as well as common flies that some animals rely on for food.

 Nature crisis: Humans 'threaten 1 million species with extinction' – BBC -- On land, in the seas, in the sky, the devastating impact of humans on nature is laid bare in a compelling UN report. One million animal and plant species are now threatened with extinction. Nature everywhere is declining at a speed never previously seen and our need for ever more food and energy are the main drivers. These trends can be halted, the study says, but it will take "transformative change" in every aspect of how humans interact with nature. From the bees that pollinate our crops, to the forests that hold back flood waters, the report reveals how humans are ravaging the very ecosystems that support their societies. Three years in the making, this global assessment of nature draws on 15,000 reference materials, and has been compiled by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). It runs to 1,800 pages. The brief, 40-page "summary for policymakers", published today at a meeting in Paris, is perhaps the most powerful indictment of how humans have treated their only home. It says that while the Earth has always suffered from the actions of humans through history, over the past 50 years, these scratches have become deep scars.  The world's population has doubled since 1970, the global economy has grown four-fold, while international trade has increased 10 times over. To feed, clothe and give energy to this burgeoning world, forests have been cleared at astonishing rates, especially in tropical areas. Between 1980 and 2000, 100 million hectares of tropical forest were lost, mainly from cattle ranching in South America and palm oil plantations in South East Asia. Faring worse than forests are wetlands, with only 13% of those present in 1700 still in existence in the year 2000.

Biodiversity crisis is about to put humanity at risk, UN scientists to warn -The world’s leading scientists will warn the planet’s life-support systems are approaching a danger zone for humanity when they release the results of the most comprehensive study of life on Earth ever undertaken.  Up to 1m species are at risk of annihilation, many within decades, according to a leaked draft of the global assessment report, which has been compiled over three years by the UN’s leading research body on nature. The 1,800-page study will show people living today, as well as wildlife and future generations, are at risk unless urgent action is taken to reverse the loss of plants, insects and other creatures on which humanity depends for food, pollination, clean water and a stable climate. The final wording of the summary for policymakers is being finalised in Paris by a gathering of experts and government representatives before the launch on Monday, but the overall message is already clear, according to Robert Watson, the chair of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). “There is no question we are losing biodiversity at a truly unsustainable rate that will affect human wellbeing both for current and future generations,” he said. “We are in trouble if we don’t act, but there are a range of actions that can be taken to protect nature and meet human goals for health and development.” The authors hope the first global assessment of biodiversity in almost 15 years will push the nature crisis into the global spotlight in the same way climate breakdown has surged up the political agenda since the 1.5C report last year by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Like its predecessor, the report is a compilation of reams of academic studies, in this case on subjects ranging from ocean plankton and subterranean bacteria to honey bees and Amazonian botany. Following previous findings on the decimation of wildlife, the overview of the state of the world’s nature is expected to provide evidence that the world is facing a sixth wave of extinction. Unlike the past five, this one is human-driven.  “All of our ecosystems are in trouble. This is the most comprehensive report on the state of the environment. It irrefutably confirms that nature is in steep decline.”

Nature’s Dangerous Decline ‘Unprecedented’; Species Extinction Rates ‘Accelerating’ --Nature is declining globally at rates unprecedented in human history — and the rate of species extinctions is accelerating, with grave impacts on people around the world now likely, warns a landmark new report from the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the summary of which was approved at the 7th session of the IPBES Plenary, meeting last week (29 April – 4 May) in Paris.“The overwhelming evidence of the IPBES Global Assessment, from a wide range of different fields of knowledge, presents an ominous picture,” said IPBES Chair, Sir Robert Watson. “The health of ecosystems on which we and all other species depend is deteriorating more rapidly than ever. We are eroding the very foundations of our economies, livelihoods, food security, health and quality of life worldwide.”“The Report also tells us that it is not too late to make a difference, but only if we start now at every level from local to global,” he said. The IPBES Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services is the most comprehensive ever completed. It is the first intergovernmental Report of its kind and builds on the landmark Millennium Ecosystem Assessment of 2005, introducing innovative ways of evaluating evidence. Based on the systematic review of about 15,000 scientific and government sources, the Report also draws (for the first time ever at this scale) on indigenous and local knowledge, particularly addressing issues relevant to Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities. The Report finds that around 1 million animal and plant species are now threatened with extinction, many within decades, more than ever before in human history. The average abundance of native species in most major land-based habitats has fallen by at least 20%, mostly since 1900. More than 40% of amphibian species, almost 33% of reefforming corals and more than a third of all marine mammals are threatened. The picture is less clear for insect species, but available evidence supports a tentative estimate of 10% being threatened. At least 680 vertebrate species had been driven to extinction since the 16th century and more than 9% of all domesticated breeds of mammals used for food and agriculture had become extinct by 2016, with at least 1,000 more breeds still threatened.

Scientist to politicians: End oil, farm subsidies to save planet – A leading figure in the network of international experts who assess the twin threats posed by climate change and species loss, Robert Watson uses symbols to remind audiences that there is no special reason why human beings should not share the fate of the flightless bird, declared extinct at the end of the 17th century.But the British environmental scientist is not always so subtle.Hours before the launch in Paris on Monday of the largest scientific effort to document the spiraling worldwide loss of plants and animals, Watson urged governments to cut hundreds of billions of dollars of annual subsidies to companies in the farming, mining, fishing and fossil fuel sectors, whose operations are driving the extinction crisis.“We need to reduce and eliminate harmful subsidies,” said Watson, who served as chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), a 130-nation scientific body, as it produced the report. “We really have to think about what is the economic system that will be much more sustainable in the future.”  The report found that global subsidies of $345 billion for fossil fuels resulted in $5 trillion in overall costs, when damage to the natural world is taken into account. Most of the world’s tens of billions of fishing subsidies contributed to increasing or maintaining fishing fleets driving the steady destruction of fish stocks, the report found. The reports’ 145 expert authors urged governments to use money saved by cutting subsidies for habitat-razing industrial farming to incentivize agricultural techniques that could regenerate local ecosystems. This would help to both restore dwindling wildlife and sequester carbon emissions, the report found.

Insects Must Be Saved to Prevent Collapse of Humanity, Top Scientist Warns - A leading scientist warned Tuesday that the rapid decline of insects around the world poses an existential threat to humanity and action must be taken to rescue them "while we still have time." Anne Sverdrup-Thygeson, professor at the Norwegian University of Life Sciences and one of the world's top entomologists, said in an interview with The Guardian that the importance of insects to the planet should spur humans to take immediate action against one of the major causes of insect decline — the climate crisis."Insects are the glue in nature," said Sverdrup-Thygeson. "We should save insects, if not for their sake, then for our own sake."Falling insect populations around the world is cause for serious alarm, Sverdrup-Thygeson said, given the enormous impact these tiny creatures have on the global ecosystem."I have read pretty much every study in English and I haven't seen a single one where entomologists don't believe the main message that a lot of insect species are definitely declining," said Sverdrup-Thygeson. "When you throw all the pesticides and climate change on top of that, it is not very cool to be an insect today."If this decline continues unabated, Sverdrup-Thygeson warned, soon "it will not be fun to be a human on this planet either.""[I]t will make it even more difficult than today to get enough food for the human population of the planet, to get good health and freshwater for everybody," said Sverdrup-Thygeson. "That should be a huge motivation for doing something while we still have time.""You can pull out some threads," she added, "but at some stage the whole fabric unravels and then we will really see the consequences." Sverdrup-Thygeson's call to action came after the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) released a comprehensive global biodiversity report, which warned that human activity has pushed a million plant and animal species to the brink of extinction. According to the report, "available evidence supports a tentative estimate of 10 percent [of insect species] being threatened" by the climate crisis.

How Trump Could Make the Extinction Crisis Even Worse - Despite an alarming UN report that warns one million plant and animal species face extinction due to human activity, the Trump administration is poised to hasten species on their path to extinction by eroding criticalwildlife protections. The UN's landmark 1,500-page study, announced this week, warns that if we continue to destroy natural landscapes at rates "unprecedented in human history," massive biodiversity loss will undermine food security, access to clean water and sources of modern medicine by 2050.  The report's findings come amid efforts by the Trump administration to dismantle the most powerful legal tool we have for protecting imperiled wildlife in the U.S.: the Endangered Species Act. The rollbacks, first proposed by Interior Secretary David Bernhardt last summer, would weaken protections that shield the biodiversity the report warns is critical to the survival of all life on Earth. The administration's move directly contradicts the UN report's conclusion that biodiversity is essential to life as we know it. The proposed changes would incorporate economic considerations into decisions about whether to protect species on the brink of extinction. The proposal also dismantles protections against hunting and trapping for species newly listed as threatened. It also alters the requirement that agencies consult with scientists before approving potentially harmful permits for development, mining, clear-cutting and other destructive activities. These steps follow President Trump's agenda of prioritizing energy dominance and giving handouts to the fossil fuel industry, regardless of the damage to our nation's endangered biodiversity. "The UN report shows that if we're serious about protecting species not just for their own worth, but in order to save ourselves, we need to increase protections rather than decrease them," said Drew Caputo, Earthjustice vice president of litigation for lands, wildlife and oceans. "The administration's attempt to gut the Endangered Species Act is, as this report shows, a full-speed-ahead course of action in exactly the wrong direction. It's also totally illegal. If they finalize those rollbacks, we'll see them in court."

Sanders Proposes Major Changes to Food Production System - Back on the campaign trail in Iowa over the weekend, 2020 Democratic candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders unveiled a major policy vision that includes breaking up powerful agriculture conglomerates as a way to save small farmers and rural communities who he says are facing a "major, major crisis." Before delivering a speech Sunday at fairgrounds in the town of Osage, Sanders told the Des Moines Register in an interview on Friday that "we have got to make a decision as to whether or not we are comfortable with seeing fewer and fewer large agribusiness industries control commodity after commodity" — a dynamic, he said, he is not "happy about" and one that is undermining rural communities across the country. According to the newspaper: During his first Iowa trip in early March, [Sanders] targeted "factory farming" and derided the concentration of players from the corn seed market to pork production. Sunday, he plans to expand on those issues and also talk about agriculture's connection to water quality and globalclimate change. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, often seen as competing for the same slice of liberal voters as Sanders, released her own agricultural policy in late March. She specifically called for federal regulators to break up Tyson, Dow-DuPont and Bayer-Monsanto — some of the key players in Iowa's ag economy. Asked by the newspaper whether the nation could realistically move back to a system of smaller, family farms, Sanders said he didn't "think we're going to go back to the 1880s," but did say "the heart of rural America is agriculture" and that his campaign intends to focus more on the issue of rural issues and farming in 2020 than they did when he first ran in 2016. According to the newspaper, Sanders said it is time for the nation to push for major changes to the entire foodproduction system. As Bill Neidhardt, spokesperson for the campaign, put it, Sanders believes the "rural way of life needs to be preserved both in his home state of Vermont and across Iowa," and in order to achieve that, the senator's speech — addressing corporate control over agriculture, fair trade deals, support for new farmers, climate change, clean water, rural education, rural health care and immigration — is a "call for major, structural changes to the agricultural economy."

Green Revolution: Washington State To Allow Composting Of Human Beings - It doesn’t get much greener than this. Staking his presidential run on climate change, the Governor of Washington is set to sign a bill legalizing composting of deceased humans. An especially high percentage of the deceased in Washington are cremated, so this alternative will cut down on carbon emissions. Instead, family members can pay around $5,500 to turn their loved ones into compost, and use the composted-remains to plant a tree.  Hell, why not throw it right into the vegetable garden. Then your loved ones become a part of you.Friendly reminder though, soylent green is people.  Click here to read the full story.

UN Decides to Control Global Plastic Waste Dumping — Today, 187 countries took a major step forward in curbing the plastic waste crisis by adding plastic to the Basel Convention, a treaty that controls the movement of hazardous waste from one country to another. The amendments require exporters to obtain the consent of receiving countries before shipping most contaminated, mixed, or unrecyclable plastic waste, providing an important tool for countries in the Global South to stop the dumping of unwanted plastic waste into their country.After China banned imports of most plastic waste in 2018, developing countries, particularly in Southeast Asia, have received a huge influx of contaminated and mixed plastic wastes that are difficult or even impossible to recycle. Norway’s proposed amendments to the Basel Convention provides countries the right to refuse unwanted or unmanageable plastic waste. The decision reflects a growing recognition around the world of the toxic impacts of plastic and the plastic waste trade. The majority of countries expressed their support for the proposal and over one million people globally signed two public petitions from Avaaz and SumOfUs. Yet even amidst this overwhelming support, there were a few vocal outliers who opposed listing plastic under Annex II of the Basel Convention. These included the United States, the largest exporter of plastic waste in the world; the American Chemistry Council, a prominent petrochemical industry lobbying group; and the Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries, a business association largely comprised of waste brokers. As the United States is not a party to the Basel Convention, it will be banned from trading plastic waste with developing countries that are Basel Parties but not part of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

U.S. abstains from supporting Basel Convention plastics proposal - Between reports on the international plastic trade's devastating costs in Southeast Asia and revelations of rampant scrap smuggling into Malaysia, even the most casual of plastic watchers know what's up: the post-China global scrap market is in a state of ongoing turmoil, and developing countries are bearing the brunt of the consequences. It's not all doom and gloom, however — as Monica Wilson, associate director of GAIA's U.S. office, noted at the WasteExpo conference this week, "The crisis is a remarkable opportunity — it's in crisis that we can make the biggest shifts."  Some of those shifts could be coming from Geneva, Switzerland this week, where signatories of the Basel Convention have gathered to discuss updates to the hazardous waste treaty — including, as reported by Reuters, a bold Norwegian proposal to monitor and restrict the export of plastics from developed to less developed countries. If passed, the amendment would require prior informed consent from importing countries before plastic scrap can be exported into their territory, as well as detailed information from the exporting country regarding the volume and type of waste."The greatest burden of plastic waste entering the sea is likely to arise where waste collection systems are ineffective or even non-existent," the amendment application states. "Developing countries in particular may face challenges in managing the rapidly growing volume of plastic waste … By explicitly including plastic waste in the scope of the Basel Convention, these waste streams can be controlled, and mismanagement of plastic waste avoided." According to campaigners, the proposal enjoys support from the vast majority of member countries. Conspicuously absent, however, is the U.S."[The amendment] … would only allow the U.S. to export plastic waste that is already sorted, cleaned and ready for recycling," David Azoulay, director of the Center for International Environmental Law's Environmental Health Program, told Reuters. "Which is exactly the type of waste they don’t send around because it has value."

Deadly Flooding From Michigan to the South Damages Homes, Sends Mississippi River to 157-Year-High in Davenport, Iowa - Deadly flooding from heavy rains and snow melt continued to plague areas from Michigan to the South on Saturday. The Mississippi River ticked above levels reached in the historic 1993 flood in Davenport, Iowa, making it the highest level there in 157 years. The city's downtown remained under water Friday, days after a temporary levee gave way and flooded the city that does not have a permanent levee or floodwall, the Associated Press reports.  Jon Erdman, weather.com senior meteorologist, noted that the Mississippi River at Rock Island, Illinois, across the river from Davenport, first rose above flood stage on March 15 as water from melting snow in upstream tributaries flowed into the Mississippi River. "Rounds of additional rain in Iowa and Illinois and a melt of snow cover from some April storms pushed the river higher since late April," Erdman added.  On Friday, the U.S. Coast Guard closed a five-mile stretch of the Mississippi River near St. Louis to boat and barge traffic, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported.   Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer declared a state of emergency Thursday for Wayne County after this week's heavy rains left widespread flooding, the AP reports. Wayne County Executive Warren Evans said an estimated 3,000 homes in the county, including homes in Detroit, have been damaged by the flooding that also forced authorities to close a stretch of the Southfield Freeway in both directions.All along the Mississippi River, communities continue to sandbag in an attempt to stave off floodwaters.  Grafton Mayor Rick Eberlin told reporters roads were closing around the town that is 40 miles north of St. Louis and has no flood walls or levees. He noted that waters were beginning to encroach the town hall, the AP reported. "We are at our wits end," Eberlin said. "We are totally unprotected."  About 40 miles northwest of St. Louis, the towns of Winfield and Foley saw flash flooding after a levee overtopped, according to emergency personnel.In Hannibal, Missouri, the Mississippi is expected to crest Friday afternoon at the third-highest level on records, the Hannibal Courier-Post reports. The city, which issued a state of emergency declaration Wednesday morning, plans to raise the height of flood gates and the levee will be raised as a precaution.  At least seven deaths are attributed to this week's flooding and severe weather.

Evacuations ordered following levee breaches along Mississippi River north of St. Louis - Heavy flooding continued inundating towns and farmland along rivers in the Midwest on Monday. The swollen Mississippi River forced road closures and forced people from their homes as high water levels are making their way downstream.The National Weather Service (NWS) issued flash flood watches and flood warnings Monday for much of eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Flood warnings were also issued for areas along rivers in the central U.S, namely the Mississippi River, which breached levees in multiple places on Monday.Local news cameras captured dramatic aerial images of the moment floodwaters breached a levee in St. Charles County. Footage of the raging water surging over the Elm Point Levee in St. Charles County astounded those watching in the KSDK newsroom as one of the station's news choppers broadcast images back to the control room. The station posted the video of the breach on Twitter. According to KSDK, the Elm Point Levee is situated between the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers, both of which are experiencing flooding.FOX2 posted similar footage on social media showing the Elm Point breach along with a breach of the levee at the nearby Sand Fort Creek. Raw footage sent back from the FOX2 news chopper showed rising floodwaters inundating various buildings, including one that appeared to be leaking oil.St. Charles County officials advised West Alton residents to evacuate due to the current Mississippi River crest projection of 35.5 feet on Monday. While the water levels in some areas along the Mississippi river are falling, many communities saw continued cresting in Missouri, according to the NWS office in St. Louis. About 150 people were displaced Sunday following a levee breach in St. Charles, Missouri.

Midwest downpours prompt more evacuations, flash flood fears - Rain swamping the nation's midsection forced people from their homes in Kansas, stranded dozens of Texas children at school overnight and strained levees along the surging Mississippi River in Illinois, Missouri and elsewhere Wednesday prompting yet more flash flood concerns. The flooding began in earnest in March, causing billions of dollars of damage to farmland, homes and businesses across the Midwest. Rivers in many communities have been above flood stage for more than six weeks following waves of heavy rain. Some parts of Kansas received up to 10 inches (25 centimeters) from Tuesday through Wednesday morning, said Kelly Butler, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Wichita. She described that as a "ridiculous amount of water" on top of grounds that already were saturated by days of rains. Several Kansas districts canceled classes, and numerous water rescues were reported. Emergency management officials began evacuating people from their homes near the Kansas college town of Manhattan around 5 a.m. Wednesday as Wildcat Creek overflowed its banks. The Cottonwood River spilled over in Marion County, prompting more evacuations and the surging Slate Creek also forced people from their homes in Wellington and closed a stretch of the Kansas Turnpike near the Oklahoma border. Flash flood watches also are in effect in Missouri, Nebraska, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Texas, as well as flood warnings along the Mississippi River. While the river was slowly going down from St. Louis and to the north, it continued rising in southern Missouri and southern Illinois. The Mississippi was nearing an expected 44-foot (13.5-meter) crest in Cape Girardeau, Missouri, 12 feet (3.5 meters) above technical flood stage. A concrete floodwall there protects the historic downtown, but low-lying areas of Cape Girardeau and neighboring communities were underwater. The Illinois River remained nearly 10 feet (3 meters) above flood stage at Peoria, Illinois, where sandbags were helping to fortify downtown. One major concern in Peoria and other Illinois River towns was that the water level is expected to remain extraordinarily high into next week. Other parts of the country also were dealing with flooding...

Heartland Heartache Hits Record- Mississippi River At Major Flood Stage For 41 Days & Counting - Thousands of farmers in the Midwest have been waiting for a very long time for floodwaters to recede so that they can finally plant some crops, but instead more rain just keeps on coming.As you will see below, it is being reported that the Mississippi River has now been at major flood stage for 41 days in a row, and a lot more rain is coming this week.  Meteorologists are warning us that major flooding may extend into June, and that means that many farmers will not be able to plant crops at all this year.  Unfortunately, as global weather patterns continue to shift many believe that what we are witnessing this year may become the “new normal” along the Mississippi River. .  The following comes from USA Today…The Mississippi River crested at higher levels than it ever had in the past. That was at 22.7 feet in Davenport, Iowa, on Thursday, a record that hadn’t been matched since records began to be kept in 1862, said Loveland. That is almost eight feet above flood stage.In Rock Island, Illinois, the Mississippi set a record level of 22.7 feet, breaking the record set on July 9, 1993, during the Great Flood of 1993.And according to NPR, the Mississippi has now been at major flood stage for 41 days in a row…The Mississippi River has been at major flood stage for 41 days and counting, and this week a temporary wall failed, sending water rushing into several blocks of downtown Davenport, Iowa.I know that many Americans that live on the east and west coasts don’t really care about what goes on in the middle of the country, but this is a truly historic disaster.  At this point the flooding is so bad that authorities have actually decided to close the Mississippi River to all vessel traffic at St. Louis…As of Friday afternoon, the Mississippi River was closed to all vessel traffic at St. Louis. The U.S. Coast Guard shut down the river for a five-mile stretch, citing not only the extremely high water but also the swift current.The river is already more than 8 feet above flood stage at St. Louis and expected to rise another 4 feet by Monday. Closure of river traffic at one of the largest cities on the Mississippi is a huge blow for commerce since many goods are shipped on barges up and down the river.

India cyclone kills at least 33, hundreds of thousands homeless (Reuters) - Hundreds of thousands of people were left homeless after a cyclone packing winds of about 200 km per hour slammed into eastern India, ripping out tin roofs and destroying power and telecom lines, officials said on Sunday. At least 33 people were killed after cyclone Fani struck the state of Odisha on Friday but a million people emerged unscathed after they moved into storm shelter ahead of landfall. The death toll could have been much greater if not for the massive evacuation in the days before the storm made landfall, officials said. The seaside temple town of Puri, which lay directly in the path of Fani, suffered extensive damage as winds gusting up to 200 kph (124 mph) tore off tin roofs, snapped power lines, and uprooted trees on Friday. “The cyclone has killed 21 people in Puri and about 300 people are injured,” Brajabandhu Dash, medical officer at Puri, told Reuters. Earlier, 12 deaths were reported from other parts of the state. The depression over the Western Meghalaya and adjoining Bangladesh has weakened, and will become insignificant in the next 24 hours, India’s met department said on Twitter early on Sunday. According to preliminary reports, Fani damaged power infrastructure worth more than 12 billion rupees ($173.7 million) and the authorities are trying to restore electricity supply for emergency services, another official said. More than 60,000 people including officials and volunteers were involved in relief operations, said special relief commissioner Bishnupada Sethi, who monitored the evacuation. The relief effort used sirens, loudspeakers and sent more than 20 million mobile messages to the targeted people, he said. The cyclone season in the Bay of Bengal can last from April to December, and storms can be deadly. In 1999, a super-cyclone battered the coast of Odisha for 30 hours, killing 10,000 people. Fani was the strongest summer cyclone in 43 years to hit Odisha, disrupting water supplies and transport links, the state’s chief minister Naveen Patnaik said in a statement. “We are in the process of restoring physical infrastructure,” he told reporters.

Cyclone Fani Kills at Least 38, Leaves Hundreds of Thousands Homeless in India and Bangladesh - Dozens are dead and hundreds of thousands homeless after the strongest cyclone to hit the Indian state of Odisha in 43 years, Reuters reported Sunday. The powerful cyclone made landfall Friday morning near the Eastern Indian town of Puri with the strength of a category 3 hurricane, according to AccuWeather. The storm did major damage to the town, felling trees, blowing off roofs and destroying power lines, Reuters said. At least 38 people have died in Odisha, 25 of them in the Puri district, The Times of India reported Sunday. Another dozen people died when the storm moved on to Bangladesh as a tropical depression Saturday, AFP reported. "Six people died after they were hit by falling trees or collapsed walls, and six have died from lightning," Bangladeshi disaster official Benazir Ahmed told AFP. However, the death toll could have been much higher if officials had not evacuated 1.2 million people in Odisha and more than 1.6 million people in Bangladesh ahead of the storm. Authorities had been preparing an evacuation plan since a cyclone in 1999 killed thousands in the region, The New York Times reported. However, in both countries survivors face a daunting recovery process. Flooding inundated entire villages in both Odisha and Bangladesh and destroyed livelihoods, including damaging thousands of acres of crops in the latter country. "See, our house is destroyed, our boat is destroyed — what can we do?" 21-year-old Puri fisherman Pikki Gopi told The New York Times. "We don't have any place to work, eat or sleep. We have nothing to do.'' Survivors were also concerned about food, AccuWeather reported, since the storm destroyed many grocery stores and food supplies. It also destroyed power lines and communications networks in parts of Odisha, including Puri, where officials said it would take at least a week to restore power. Patnaik told the Hindustan Times that relief efforts were made more difficult by the rarity of the storm. "Fani is one of the rarest of rare cyclones – the first to hit in 43 years and one of three to hit in 150 years. Because of the rarity, the prediction and tracking of the cyclone was challenging. In 24 hours, one was not sure of the trajectory it was going to take. Fani after landfall, tore apart the infrastructure, especially power, telecom and water supply, " Patnaik said.

The Readers’ Editor writes: India is in the midst of a water crisis. Why isn’t it an election issue? Even before the unrelenting summer sun began to scorch the earth, water was beginning to run out in many parts of India. With the rains still weeks away, the country is facing a serious water crisis. You would not know this if you listened to election speeches as politicians hurtle around the country seeking votes. While Narendra Modi talks of Pulwama, Balakot, Masood Azhar, Pakistan and obsessively about Rahul Gandhi and the Congress party, Rahul Gandhi speaks of jobs, farmers, the economy, the Rafale controversy, and obsessively about Narendra Modi. The water problem does not feature in their list of concerns. Yet, without water there can be no life. The shortage of water is a perennial problem. It cannot be solved overnight. But do politicians even realise that with climate change and altering weather cycles, the crisis is worsening? Heightened, of course, by the sheer mismanagement of a life-supporting resource by successive governments. Not surprisingly, water, or rather its absence, is beginning to feature in more than one election-related story in the last weeks. Even as we finally edge towards the end of this massively prolonged election process, it is worthwhile to spend some time away from the name-calling and clamour of election campaigns to heed the water stories being reported.

Extreme Events in the Himalayan Region: Are We Prepared for the Big One? The Himalaya form a dynamic, changing landscape. The product of millions of years of crustal shortening, they carries in their bowels immense tectonic stresses. It is evident that contrasting tectonic and climatic agendas made this range what it is. The Himalaya were lifted up to their great heights by the force of the Indian plate colliding with the Eurasian one, and their growth was – and is – counterbalanced by erosional forces unleashed by the annual summer monsoons and the winter rains. In effect, there exists a dynamic balance between the vertical forces that hold them up and the opposing erosional forces that wear them down. Some of these opposing forces include earthquakes, avalanches and floods, and they can be and often are disastrous for those living on the Himalaya’s fringes. The trend in annual losses caused by natural disasters is markedly upward. This appears to be related to more people and infrastructure being exposed to natural disasters, and the attendant risk, the underlying reasons for which are population growth and a greater number of people living in vulnerable areas. It is clear that massive efforts have to be mounted, together with sound scientific strategies for mitigation, if we are to deal better with disasters. One of our major concerns now should be the 2,500-km-long Himalayan plate boundary that can generate powerful earthquakes. There is now consensus among scientists that there are deficits in slips in certain segments of the Himalayan arc (for example, the central Himalaya) that are not commensurate with the accumulation of elastic strain. In other words, areas that haven’t experienced great quakes for several years now have only been accumulating stress and are likelier to de-stress in the future with a greater quake, of magnitude 8.5 or higher. Are we prepared for such extreme events in the Himalayan region?

NASA Issues A Warning- Meteorites Are A Threat To The Earth! - On Monday, NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine warned that meteors that could destroy an entire state in the United States and that they are a real threat to Earth. Bridenstine also claimed that not enough people are taking his warnings seriously enough. Speaking at the Planetary Defense Conference in Washington, D.C., Bridenstine said: “This is not about Hollywood, this is not about movies, this is about ultimately protecting the only planet we know right now to host life!” And it’s not being taken seriously, according to a report by WRCBTV. Bridenstine used the meteorite that exploded over the Russian city of Chelyabinsk in 2013 as an example of just how dangerous these space rocks could be to the Earth. The Chelyabinsk meteor had “30 times the energy of the atomic bomb at Hiroshima” and injured around 1,500 people. Just 16 hours after the crash, NASA detected an even larger object that approached the earth but did not actually land on it, he revealed. “I wish I could tell you that these events are exceptionally unique, but they are not,” Bridenstine said. “These events are not rare - they happen. It’s up to us to make sure that we are characterizing, detecting, tracking all of the near-Earth objects that could be a threat to the world.”

 A Portion Of The World’s Largest Ice Shelf Is Melting At A Ridiculously High Rate - A portion of the world’s largest ice shelf is melting 10 times faster than the overall ice shelf average due to warming surface water, according to a new report that emphasizes the impact such warming has on ice melt.  Researchers studying data taken at Antarctica’s Ross Ice Shelf over the last four years reported on Monday that warming ocean water that’s heated by the sun is causing the rapid melting that intensifies risks of long-term rising sea levels.  The findings, which were discovered in part by researchers at the University of Cambridge, were published in the journal Nature Geoscience.  “The stability of ice shelves is generally thought to be related to their exposure to warm deep ocean water, but we’ve found that solar heated surface water also plays a crucial role in melting ice shelves,” the report’s leading author, Craig Stewart from the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research in New Zealand, said in a release. The area with higher melt rates was found beneath the shelf where the ice pushes against Ross Island. This pressure slows the flow of the entire ice shelf, according to the university’s release. Though the ice shelf is considered to be relatively stable, the new findings suggest that it may be more vulnerable than previously believed. The ice shelf, which is about the size of France, stabilizes the West Antarctic ice sheet and blocks ice that flows into it from some of the world’s largest glaciers. Should it weaken, it could significantly increase the risk of instability in surrounding glaciers, including those more than 500 miles away, and lead to rising sea levels of several meters or more, the researchers warned.

Rapid permafrost thaw unrecognized threat to landscape, global warming researcher warns - A "sleeping giant" hidden in permafrost soils in Canada and other northern regions worldwide will have important consequences for global warming, says a new report led by University of Guelph scientist Merritt Turetsky. Scientists have long studied how gradual permafrost thaw occurring over decades in centimetres of surface soils will influence carbon release to the atmosphere. But Turetsky and an international team of researchers are looking at something very different: rapid collapse of permafrost that can transform the landscape in mere months through subsidence, flooding and landslides. The team discusses the importance of abrupt thaw for carbon release estimates, northern ways of living and climate policy in a commentary in the May 2 issue of Nature.   Permafrost affects about one-quarter of land in the northern hemisphere. These frozen soils lock up carbon in biomass from dead plants, animals and microbes over millennia, preventing its breakdown and keeping it out of the atmosphere. As a result, permafrost region soils now hold twice as much carbon -- about 1.6 trillion tonnes -- as is contained in the atmosphere. "This abrupt thaw is changing forested ecosystems to thaw lakes and wetlands, resulting in a wholesale transformation of the landscape that not only impacts carbon feedbacks to climate but is also altering wildlife habitat and damaging infrastructure." Describing the formation of thaw lakes and landslides triggering mass movement of soil and sediment into rivers and streams, Turetsky adds: "It's happening faster than anyone predicted. We show that abrupt permafrost thawing affects less than 20 per cent of the permafrost region, but carbon emissions from this relatively small region have the potential to double the climate feedback associated with permafrost thawing." In addition, abrupt thaw releases more methane -- a stronger greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide -- than does gradual thaw. The researchers say rapid permafrost collapse will have local, national and international effects, from altering traditional travel and hunting patterns in the North, to causing costly infrastructure damage to roads and rail lines, to making it even more difficult to meet emission targets intended to limit global warming.

US climate objections sink Arctic Council accord in Finland - US objections to wording on climate change prevented Arctic nations signing a joint statement at a summit in Finland, delegates said. It is the first time such a statement has been cancelled since the Arctic Council was set up in 1996. A Finnish delegate, Timo Koivurova, said "the others felt they could not water down climate change sentences". There is international concern that Arctic temperatures are rising twice as fast as in the rest of the world. On Monday, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo addressed the forum in Rovaniemi, northern Finland, with a speech welcoming the melting of Arctic sea ice, rather than expressing alarm about it. "Steady reductions in sea ice are opening new passageways and new opportunities for trade," he said. "This could potentially slash the time it takes to travel between Asia and the West by as much as 20 days." "Arctic sea lanes could become the 21st-Century Suez and Panama Canals," Mr Pompeo said. At short notice he cancelled talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin on Tuesday, in a surprise move. Scientists and environmental groups warn that the retreat of Arctic sea ice threatens polar bears and marine species, but also contributes to rising sea levels, adding to the risk of coastal flooding. They also warn of a major pollution risk if energy and transport firms find it easier to exploit the pristine Arctic wilderness. The Arctic Council consists of the United States, Canada, Russia, Finland, Norway, Denmark, Sweden and Iceland. It meets every two years to address economic and environmental challenges in the Arctic. Sources at the forum told Reuters news agency that the US shunned the joint statement because of wording stating that climate change posed a serious threat to the Arctic. 

Pompeo says shrinking Arctic sea ice presents 'new opportunities for trade' - Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Monday that the Arctic, a region that has been significantly impacted by climate change, presents "opportunity and abundance" when it comes to economic opportunity. "The Arctic is at the forefront of opportunity and abundance," Pompeo said at a meeting of the Arctic Council in Finland, according to reports. "It houses 13 percent of the world's undiscovered oil, 30 percent of its undiscovered gas, an abundance of uranium, rare earth minerals, gold, diamonds, and millions of square miles of untapped resources, fisheries galore."Pompeo added that "steady reductions in sea ice are opening new passageways and new opportunities for trade," noting that the developments could "potentially slash the time it takes to travel between Asia and the West by as much as 20 days.""Arctic sea lanes could become the 21st century Suez and Panama Canals," he stated. Pompeo's speech mainly focused on the threats the Trump administration believes Russia and China pose in the Arctic. He never mentioned the term "climate change," according to The Associated Press. Rather, Pompeo said that Trump was committed "to leveraging resources in environmentally responsible ways."   "America is the world's leader in caring for the environment," Pompeo added, pointing to the reduction in energy-related CO2 and black carbon emissions in the U.S. CNN, citing the U.S. Global Change Research Program, reported that shrinking levels of sea ice cause warmer temperatures throughout the globe, leading to expedited sea ice melting. Pompeo's remarks also come as scientists issue increasingly dire warnings about the potential threats posed by climate change. The oldest and most robust sea ice in the Arctic began breaking for the first time in reported history last year, according to The Guardian.

Hands off the Arctic: US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warns China & Russia away from the north -- US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has warned China and Russia to “respect our interests” in the Arctic, or face the consequences. Frozen and desolate, the Arctic region looks set to be the next frontier for competition between the US, Russia, and China. Speaking at a meeting of the Arctic Council in Finland on Monday, Pompeo launched a broadside against the US’ competitors in the region, particularly China.  “Arctic seaways could become the 21st century Suez and Panama canals,” America’s top diplomat stated.  “China is already developing shipping lanes in the Arctic Ocean. This is part of a very familiar pattern. Beijing attempts to develop critical infrastructure using Chinese money, Chinese companies and Chinese workers, in some cases to establish a permanent Chinese security presence.” Although China holds observer status on the Arctic Council, the country is 900 miles from the Arctic Ocean. Nevertheless, melting polar ice means viable sea routes across the region will soon be open, and Beijing has given these consideration in its Maritime Silk Road infrastructure plan. During a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping last month, Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed interest in linking Russia’s Northern Sea Route with China’s Maritime Silk Road.  Such a route could slash shipping times from China to the West by several weeks.Where Beijing sees a business opportunity, Pompeo sees a threat.“China’s pattern of aggressive behavior elsewhere should inform what we do, and how it might treat the Arctic,” he warned.

Demanding Urgent Action on Climate Emergency, Youth Lock Their Necks to UK Parliament's Gates - A small group of youth activists locked their necks to the U.K. Parliament's gates Friday to demand urgent government action to address the global climate crisis while young people worldwide took to the streets as part of the weekly school climate strike. BREAKING - @XrYouth lock their necks to Parliament Square today to demand that after passing the motion to declare an environment and climate emergency the UK government now halts biodiversity loss, goes net #ZeroCarbon2025 and create a #CitizensAssembly.pic.twitter.com/xWKnMImRku — Extinction Rebellion (@ExtinctionR) May 3, 2019 The demonstration came two days after Parliament made history by passing a motion put forth by Labour Party Leader Jeremy Corbyn to declare an environment and climate emergency.But, as Extinction Rebellion London said on Twitter, "a declaration is not enough.""Desperate times call for desperate measures," 14 members of Extinction Rebellion Youth—aged 13 to 23—wrote in a letter to Parliament on Friday, detailing why they decided to lock themselves to the gates. "The government's inaction up to this point has compelled us to act, and although we do not want to be doing this, we feel we have no choice."

Anti-Protest Legislation Is Threatening Our Climate - We only have about a decade to reverse course on the climate crisis. Activism opposing fossil fuel pipelines is needed more than ever. But activists are facing threats to their right to protest in state legislatures across the country. Lawmakers are introducing legislation to restrict the right to protest. These bills are often modeled on resolutions drafted by companies and passed through groups like the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC), the secretive group of corporate lobbyists trying to rewrite state laws to benefit corporations over people, and are usually supported by law enforcement groups. The International Center for Not-for-Profit Law has been tracking these bills where you can see nearly 100 have been introduced, so far. There are several categories of bills that have been introduced and in some cases, enacted: anti-boycott legislation, bills that limit collective bargaining, bills that increase criminal penalties for protests against fossil fuel pipelines, bills that enhance criminal penalties for highway shut down protests, bills restricting the rights of students to oppose hate speech college campuses, and more. Each category of bills attempts to criminalize a particular movement tactic, often to increase criminal penalties for already illegal conduct. The trend emerged in 2015 and was first used against the boycott, divestment, and sanctions movement in support of the Palestinian rights. Anti-boycott legislation has been introduced, and in some cases enacted, on the federal level and in all but nine states. Another example is following large wildcat strikes in several states, bills have been introduced to limit the collective bargaining rights of public sector teachers unions. Bills targeting campus speech have been filed in response to student protests against white supremacists. And anti-mask wearing laws — which historically were designed to target the Klan — are now used to target anti-fascists.  Fossil fuel pipeline protests, like we saw at Standing Rock and elsewhere, have been another target of those interested in passing these bills. The bills claim to protect "critical infrastructure" but are actually used to criminalize Water Protectors and environmental activism. The first of these bills was introduced and enacted in Oklahoma in 2017, a state with significant oil and gas interests, and the second largest Indigenous population in the country. When voting on these laws, Oklahoma legislators made clear that these bills were a direct response to pipeline protests. Since that time, these bills have been introduced in nearly two dozen states, and enacted in five, though several more states are currently considering these bills.

McConnell: Senate won't take up bill preventing US withdrawal from Paris deal -  Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said Thursday that the Senate will not take up a House bill that would force President Trump to keep the U.S. in the Paris climate agreement. “This futile gesture to handcuff the U.S. economy through the ill-fated Paris deal will go nowhere here in the Senate," McConnell said from the Senate floor. "We’re in the business of actually helping middle-class families, not inventing new obstacles to throw in their paths." His comments came shortly before the House passed a measure that would prevent the administration from using funding to withdraw from the 2015 deal. Though the legislation easily passed the House, McConnell’s comments underscore that the bill is dead on arrival in the GOP-controlled Senate. McConnell has touted his ability to block House-passed legislation, calling himself the “Grim Reaper” for progressive policy ideas. “Tons of red tape and real economic damage for zero measurable effect. That’s my friends across the aisle in a nutshell on this issue,” McConnell said on the Senate floor Thursday.

Students are terrified of climate change. Some school boards say it’s too political to talk about - Burning book pages aren’t supposed to rain from the sky. But for kids growing up in the age of climate change, it’s now a familiar sight. “Sonoma County kids know that when there’s a big wildfire, there are pieces of paper that fall out of the sky,” said Park Guthrie, who teaches sixth grade at a school in Occidental, California. Loose pages of paper may catch fire and get carried away by the wind. When the Tubbs Fire ravaged the area in November of 2017, Guthrie’s son Kai, then a high school freshman, found pieces of paper with Bible quotes floating in the air in the ravaged Coffey Park.  This is the new normal for kids around the country — and Guthrie and his son believe it should be a wakeup call for elected leaders. Guthrie founded Schools for Climate Action (S4CA) in 2017, shortly before the devastating Tubb fire. Since then, a growing wave of climate-related disasters — from increasing school closures due to poor air quality, to dangerous fires, to the dragging drought — have continued, in his words, to “traumatize the community.” In an effort to undo some of that trauma, Guthrie and his son knew they had to act. Guthrie began to push for increased climate awareness in schools, among student groups and in educational groups across the state, encouraging school boards to sign climate resolutions to pressure Congress to take action. Guthrie found a sympathetic ear in California in Chris Ungar, a 19-year school board veteran from the San Luis Coastal Unified School district in San Luis Obispo. Ungar had already been thinking about climate change after students presented his board with a resolution of their own. “Ungar helped move the fight beyond California. He took the issue to the quarterly meeting of the Pacific regional caucus of the National School Boards Association, which represents state school boards around the country and helps them lobby lawmakers on educational issues.  Inspired by this conversation, the Pacific committee drafted a proposal for the larger national body, specifically advocating for disaster relief funding, urging a reduction in carbon emissions, and encouraging states to adopt climate change curriculum.

Activist Greta Thunberg ignites climate action among European students -  13-year-old Nikita Shulga co-founded a project in Ukraine that turned food scraps from his school canteen into organic fertiliser to create healthy soils. British student Ayrton Cable was only eight when he learnt about homelessness, putting him on a path to activism and establishing the Water, Air, and Food Awards (WAFA) for youths. Giorgia Mira, 16, was mocked when, inspired by Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg, she started climate protests outside her school in southern Italy, but believes she is slowly changing the minds of both her peers and teachers. They are all part of the nearly four dozen teenagers who called on adults to solve the problems of climate change and hunger without further delay at a four-day food industry conference this week in the Italian city of Milan. "We should solve these problems, not close our eyes ... because if you don't do it, then nothing changes," Sophia-Christina Borisyuk, 13, Shulga's former classmate who co-founded the composting project, told the Thomson Reuters Foundation. "If we don't do anything, after 200, 300 or even 100 years, we all die because we use a lot of minerals and other resources but we don't replenish," added Shulga, whose project has spread to 200 schools all over Ukraine. Their goal is to get all of Ukraine's 17,000 schools to produce their own compost. Youth activism has been under the spotlight since Thunberg, 16, shot to prominence last year for weekly protests on the cobblestones in front of Stockholm's Parliament House, holding a "school strike for climate" sign.Thousands of students around the world have since copied her protest for climate action and youth organisations have launched strikes involving students in more than 40 countries. "These few years are crucial ... action needs to be taken now," said Cable, now 16, referring to scientists' warning that the world has about 12 years left to clean up its energy system or face potentially catastrophic consequences.WAFA Youth has engaged 100,000 students from more than 1,000 schools in 12 countries to look at issues around water security, said Cable, who has campaigned against wide-ranging issues including hunger, factory farming and cyber bullying.

 Ireland Becomes Second Country to Declare Climate Emergency – (NB: third; Scotland was first) The Republic of Ireland became the second country in the world to declare a climate emergency Thursday,The Independent Ireland reported. The declaration was passed Thursday evening when both the government and opposition parties agreed to an amendment to a climate action report."We're reaching a tipping point in respect of climate deterioration," Climate Action Minister Richard Bruton said. "Things will deteriorate very rapidly unless we move very swiftly and the window of opportunity to do that is fast closing."The Irish declaration follows a similar action from UK's parliament May 1. The governments of Wales and Scotland have also declared climate emergencies.  Its official.Ireland becomes 2nd country in the world to declare a #ClimateEmergency & Dáil also agreed to endorse all the recommendations of the Oireachtas Climate Action Report .Definitely one of the highlights for me as a @greenparty_ie TD .My children are thrilled.pic.twitter.com/bcQhvYxvqx— Catherine Martin TD (@cathmartingreen) May 9, 2019 Irish Green Party Leader Eamon Ryan pointed out that the declaration needed to be a starting point."Declaring an emergency means absolutely nothing unless there is action to back it up,' he said, as BBC News reported. "That means the Government having to do things they don't want to do."Climate Action Committee Chair Hildegarde Naughton said that Bruton would bring new climate action proposals before the Dáil, as the Irish parliament is called, and that she looked forward to working with her colleagues to assess them."Now we need action," she said, as BBC News reported.

URI researchers: Offshore wind farm increased tourism on Block Island – – Researchers at the University of Rhode Island who analyzed AirBnB rental data before and after construction of the Block Island Wind Farm have found that, contrary to some concerns, the turbines have increased tourism on the island. Corey Lang, URI associate professor of environmental economics, said that many coastal communities that rely on tourism to sustain their economy have worried that offshore wind farms would negatively affect tourism. “It’s a common argument for pushback against siting offshore wind, but there isn’t a lot of empirical evidence about it one way or the other,” said Lang. “There have been surveys done assessing how tourists might feel about it, based on potential images of turbines in offshore waters, but those are hypothetical.”The researchers collected lodging data from AirBnB to examine trends in monthly revenues, occupancy rates and reservations from roughly two years before construction of the turbines to one year after construction was completed. They compared AirBnB rental trends in Block Island to those in nearby communities that are also dependent on summer vacation rentals – Narragansett, Westerly and Nantucket. The results were almost entirely positive for the peak summer months of July and August, and there were no noticeable effects during the rest of the year. During July and August following construction of the turbines, AirBnB rentals in Block Island experienced, on average, a 19 percent increase in occupancy rates and a $3490 increase in monthly revenue compared to those in Narragansett, Westerly and Nantucket. “We have multiple indicators for the tourism market, and they seem to be indicative that there was an increase in interest in visiting Block Island in the year after construction of the wind farm,” said Lang. While the data didn’t indicate the reason for the increase in occupancy, Lang and Carr-Harris suggest that people were curious about the wind farm and wanted to see it for themselves. “I think there has been some excitement about it. People are excited about renewable energy and sustainability, and they want to get behind it,” Lang said. “So for the nation’s first offshore wind farm, we believe our results indicate that it has had a positive effect on tourism.”

A war is brewing over lithium mining at the edge of Death Valley -The desolate beauty of the Panamint Valley has long drawn all manner of naturalists, adventurers and social outcasts — including Charles Manson — off-road vehicle riders and top gun fighter pilots who blast overhead in simulated dogfights. Now this prehistoric lake bed is shaping up to be an unlikely battleground between environmentalists and battery technologists who believe the area might hold the key to a carbon-free future. Recently, the Australia-based firm Battery Mineral Resources Ltd. asked the federal government for permission to drill four exploratory wells to see if the hot, salty brine beneath the valley floor contains economically viable concentrations of lithium. The soft, silvery-white metal is a key component of rechargeable lithium-ion batteries and is crucial to the production of electric and hybrid vehicles. The drilling request has generated strong opposition from the Center for Biological Diversity, the Sierra Club and the Defenders of Wildlife, who say the drilling project would be an initial step toward the creation of a full-scale lithium mining operation. They say lithium extraction would bring industrial sprawl, large and unsightly drying ponds and threaten a fragile ecosystem that supports Nelson’s bighorn sheep, desert tortoises and the Panamint alligator lizard, among other species.“A lithium mine would destroy these spectacular panoramas,”  The battle could be a fierce one. Lithium is expected to play an increasingly important role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions from cars and trucks, and has been designated by the Trump administration as a mineral essential to the economic and national security of the United States. In addition to powering countless laptops and cellphones, lithium-ion batteries may also play a role in guarding against power line wildfire ignitions. The only functioning lithium mine in North America is about 150 miles away in Clayton Valley, Nev. Most of the lithium used for batteries now comes from the so-called Lithium Triangle of South America — a region that includes the world’s largest salt flats.For dyed-in-the-wool environmentalists, the brewing war over lithium mining poses a moral dilemma as it seemingly pits them against efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Constructed with the world’s lightest metal, rechargeable lithium-ion batteries allow vehicles to run on power generated by wind turbines, solar panels, hydroelectric dams and other clean-energy sources. In California alone, officials hope to see as many as 5 million such zero-emission vehicles on state highways by 2030.

The Reason Renewables Can’t Power Modern Civilization Is Because They Were Never Meant To - Over the last decade, journalists have held up Germany’s renewables energy transition, the Energiewende, as an environmental model for the world. “Many poor countries, once intent on building coal-fired power plants to bring electricity to their people, are discussing whether they might leapfrog the fossil age and build clean grids from the outset,” thanks to the Energiewende, wrote a New York Times reporter in 2014. With Germany as inspiration, the United Nations and World Bank poured billions into renewables like wind, solar, and hydro in developing nations like Kenya. But then, last year, Germany was forced to acknowledge that it had to delay its phase-out of coal, and would not meet its 2020 greenhouse gas reduction commitments. It announced plans to bulldoze an ancient church and forest in order to get at the coal underneath it. After renewables investors and advocates, including Al Gore and Greenpeace, criticized Germany, journalists came to the country’s defense.  Now comes a major article in the country’s largest newsweekly magazine, Der Spiegel, titled, “A Botched Job in Germany” ("Murks in Germany"). The magazine’s cover shows broken wind turbines and incomplete electrical transmission towers against a dark silhouette of Berlin. “The Energiewende — the biggest political project since reunification — threatens to fail,” write Der Spiegel’s Frank Dohmen, Alexander Jung, Stefan Schultz, Gerald Traufetter in their a 5,700-word investigative story (the article can be read in English here).Over the past five years alone, the Energiewende has cost Germany €32 billion ($36 billion) annually, and opposition to renewables is growing in the German countryside.“The politicians fear citizen resistance” Der Spiegel reports. “There is hardly a wind energy project that is not fought.”In response, politicians sometimes order “electrical lines be buried underground but that is many times more expensive and takes years longer.” As a result, the deployment of renewables and related transmission lines is slowing rapidly. Less than half as many wind turbines (743) were installed in 2018 as were installed in 2017, and just 30 kilometers of new transmission were added in 2017. Solar and wind advocates say cheaper solar panels and wind turbines will make the future growth in renewables cheaper than past growth but there are reasons to believe the opposite will be the case. As a result, the deployment of renewables and related transmission lines is slowing rapidly. Less than half as many wind turbines (743) were installed in 2018 as were installed in 2017, and just 30 kilometers of new transmission were added in 2017. Solar and wind advocates say cheaper solar panels and wind turbines will make the future growth in renewables cheaper than past growth but there are reasons to believe the opposite will be the case. Der Spiegel cites a recent estimate that it would cost Germany “€3.4 trillion ($3.8 trillion),” or seven times more than it spent from 2000 to 2025, to increase solar and wind three to five-hold by 2050.

Renewables Are Dead – Ilargi - If I’ve said once that those among us who tout renewable energy should pay more attention to the 2nd law of Thermodynamics, I must have said it a hundred times. But I hardly ever get the impression that people understand why. And it seems so obvious. A quote I often use from Herman Daly and Ken Townsend, when I talk about energy, really says it all: “Erwin Schrodinger (1945) has described life as a system in steady-state thermodynamic disequilibrium that maintains its constant distance from equilibrium (death) by feeding on low entropy from its environment – that is, by exchanging high-entropy outputs for low-entropy inputs. The same statement would hold verbatium as a physical description of our economic process. A corollary of this statement is that an organism cannot live in a medium of its own waste products.”Using energy produces waste. Using more energy produces more waste. It doesn’t matter -much- what kind of energy is used, or what kind of waste is produced. The energy WE use produces waste, in a medium of which WE cannot survive. The only way to escape this is to use less energy. And because we have used such an enormous amount of energy the past 100 years, we must use a whole lot less in the next 100.We use about 100 times more energy per person, and a whole lot more in the west, than our own labor can produce. We use the equivalent of what 500 billion people can produce without the aid of fossil fuel-powered machines. We won’t solve this problem with wind turbines or solar panels. There really is one way only: cut down on energy use.Because it’s exceedingly rare to see this discussed, even among physicists, who should know better since they know thermodynamics, it’s good to hear it from someone else. An article in Forbes today discusses a May 3 article in German magazine Der Spiegel on the problems with the Energiewende, the country’s drastic turn towards renewables. The Forbes article is written by Michael Shellenberger, President of Environmental Progress and Time Magazine “Hero of the Environment.” (sigh..) Let’s take a walk through it: The Reason Renewables Can’t Power Modern Civilization Is Because They Were Never Meant To.

U.S. Solar Installations Hit 2 Million Mark --There are now more than two million solar installations in the U.S., and that number is set to double in four years, Reuters reported Thursday.The announcement came as a joint statement from industry group the Solar Energy Industries Association(SEIA) and research firm Wood Mackenzie. "We believe that the 2020s will be the decade that solar becomes the dominant new form of energy generation," SEIA CEO Abigail Ross-Hopper said in the statement, according to Reuters.Solar energy now generates enough power to fuel more than 12 million homes, and the renewable energysource has made strides in recent years. It hit the one million mark only three years ago, a target it took the industry 40 years to achieve, CNBC reported. California was a major player in that growth. It was responsible for 51 percent of the first million installations and 43 percent of the second. Texas, Rhode Island, Florida, Utah and Maryland were also key players, SEIA said.

Amsterdam to ban petrol and diesel cars and motorbikes by 2030 - Cars and motorbikes running on petrol or diesel will be banned from driving in Amsterdam from 2030. The city’s council plans to phase in the change as part of a drive to clean up air pollution, which the authorities blame for shortening the life expectancy of Amsterdammers by a year. “Pollution often is a silent killer and is one of the greatest health hazards in Amsterdam,” said the councillor responsible for the city’s traffic, Sharon Dijksma, announcing the municipality’s decision. From next year, diesel cars that are 15 years or older will be banned from going within the A10 ring road around the Dutch capital. Public buses and coaches that emit exhaust fumes will no longer enter the city centre from 2022. By 2025, the ban will be extended to pleasure crafts on its waters, mopeds and light mopeds. All traffic within the built-up area must be emission-free by 2030 under the Clean Air Action plan. The city plans to encourage its residents to switch to electric and hydrogen cars by offering charging stations to every buyer of such a vehicle. It is hoped that the second-hand electric car market will blossom in the coming years. There will need to be 16,000 to 23,000 charging stations by 2025 to make the project viable – up from the current 3,000 in the city. In large part due to heavy traffic in the cities of Amsterdam, Maastricht and Rotterdam, air pollution in the Netherlands is worse than European rules permit. There are concerns that the levels of nitrogen dioxide and particle matter emissions are causing respiratory illnesses. But the Rai Association, the automotive industry’s lobby group, condemned the plan as bizarre and regressive. A spokesman said: “Many tens of thousands of families who have no money for an electric car will soon be left out in the cold. That makes Amsterdam a city of the rich.

Soybean oil comprises a larger share of domestic biodiesel production - Biodiesel production accounts for an increasing share of soybean oil use in the United States, currently representing about 30% of domestic soybean oil disposition. Soybean oil is the most commonly used vegetable oil for biodiesel production, and inputs reached 7.1 billion pounds during the latest soybean oil marketing year (MY), which ran from October 1, 2017, to September 30, 2018. Growth in biodiesel production has coincided with federal biofuel mandates and other conditions that encouraged a larger share of the domestic soybean oil supply to be consumed as biofuel feedstock.  Biodiesel is a mixture of chemical compounds known as alkyl esters produced from a variety of vegetable oils, fats, and greases. Vegetable oils comprise about three-fourths of total biodiesel feedstock in the United States, with soybean oil accounting for slightly more than half of total inputs by weight. Smaller amounts of vegetable oil for biodiesel production include distiller’s corn oil (an inedible oil that is produced as a byproduct of the corn ethanol production process) and canola oil. Soybean oil and distiller’s corn oil are widely used because the feedstocks are produced in the Midwest, where most biofuel production capacity exists. About half of U.S. raw soybeans are exported, and much of the rest is processed, or crushed, at soybean processing plants in the United States. The soybean crush yields about 80% soybean meal and 20% soybean oil, which may be further processed into various food and non-food products.  As total U.S. soybean oil supply grew between MY 2010–2011 and MY 2017–2018, from about 22.5 billion pounds to nearly 26.0 billion pounds, the share of total soybean oil consumed as a biodiesel feedstock doubled, from about 15% to 30%. Soybean oil and other vegetable oils may also be used as a feedstock for renewable diesel, a separate biofuel that is increasingly produced at stand-alone facilities and petroleum refineries.Between MY 2010–2011 and MY 2017–2018, domestic biodiesel production grew from 0.7 billion gallons to 1.8 billion gallons. The increase in production has largely been driven by the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), a program administered by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency that mandates the blending of renewable fuels into the nation’s fuel supply. The RFS target for biomass-based diesel, which collectively refers to biodiesel and renewable diesel, grew from 1.15 billion gallons to 2.10 billion gallons between compliance years 2010 and 2018.

 U.S. energy consumption, production, and exports reach record highs in 2018 - The United States produced a record amount of energy from various sources in 2018, reaching 96 quadrillion British thermal units (quads), an 8% increase from 2017. This increase in production outpaced the 4% increase in U.S. energy consumption, which also reached a record high of 101 quads. At the same time, U.S. energy exports increased 18% to a record high of 21 quads in 2018, reducing net energy imports into the United States to a 54-year low of 4 quads, or less than 4% of U.S. energy consumption. In 2018, crude oil and natural gas accounted for 57% of all U.S. energy production, with crude oil production seeing an increase of 17% and natural gas an increase of 12% from 2017. Natural gas plant liquids production also increased by 14%. Energy production from renewable energy increased 4% from 2017, mostly because of growth in solar (22%), wind (8%), and biomass energy (2%). Nuclear electric power production remained virtually unchanged in 2018. Coal was the only energy production source to decrease in 2018, falling 2% from 2017 levels. Total U.S. consumption of energy also increased from 2017 levels but at a slower pace than production. Compared with other fuels, petroleum had the largest gap between growth in production and growth in consumption in 2018. The 17% increase in crude oil production outpaced a modest 2% increase in total domestic petroleum consumption, resulting in a 73% increase in exports of crude oil and a 6% increase in exports of petroleum products in 2018 compared with 2017.  Exports of crude oil and petroleum products made up 68% of all U.S. energy exports in 2018, accounting for most of the increase in total U.S. energy exports from 2017. Petroleum product exports reached a record-high 10.2 quads, or 5.6 million barrels per day. Crude oil exports nearly doubled and reached a record-high 4.2 quads (2 million barrels per day), surpassing both coal and natural gas on an energy equivalent basis to become the second-highest U.S. energy export. Exports of natural gas and biomass energy (e.g., ethanol) also reached new records in 2018, and coal exports reached its highest level since 2013.In 2018, U.S. energy imports decreased 2% compared with 2017, which, along with record-high energy exports, brought combined net U.S. energy imports to their lowest levels since 1964. In 2018, the United States was a net exporter of coal, coal coke, petroleum products, natural gas, and biomass energy. The United States remained a net importer of crude oil, which has been true for every year since 1944. However, in 2018, net imports of crude oil reached its lowest level since 1991.

 Federal authorities seek millions owed by coal companies affiliated with W.Va. governor - Federal authorities have filed civil actions to collect millions owed by coal companies affiliated with West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice and his children in Virginia and four other states for unpaid fines incurred by nearly 2,300 safety citations. According to the office of Thomas T. Cullen, the U.S. attorney for the Western District of Virginia, the actions are aimed at 23 coal companies in Virginia, West Virginia, Tennessee, Alabama and Kentucky, seeking more than $4.7 million in unpaid penalties for violations of the Federal Mine Safety and Health Act. National Public Radio first reported in 2014 that the companies owed $2 million in fines and last month reported that the total had climbed to more than $4 million. NPR reported that the companies are now primarily controlled by the Republican governor’s son and daughter. In a prepared statement, Cullen said Tuesday that the mine safety act “plays a critical role in protecting our coal miners and ensuring that mine owners and operators fulfill their legal obligations to provide safe and healthy working conditions.” “As alleged in the complaint, the defendants racked up more than 2,000 safety violations over a five-year period and have, to date, refused to comply with their legal obligations to pay the resulting financial penalties. This is unacceptable, and, as indicated by this suit, we will hold them accountable,” Cullen said.

Lawsuit Launched to Force Trump Administration to Protect Endangered Species From Coal Mining in Appalachia — The Center for Biological Diversity and allies filed a formal notice of intent today to sue the federal Office of Surface Mining Reclamation and Enforcement, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and state of West Virginia for failing to protect endangered species from coal mining. Documents obtained under the Freedom of Information Act show high-level interference by the Trump administration that is circumventing the Endangered Species Act and putting species at risk of extinction. “The Trump administration is putting coal-industry profits ahead of people and wildlife in Appalachia whose health is threatened daily by pollution,” said Tierra Curry, a senior scientist at the Center. “Political appointees interfered to undermine endangered species safeguards, so we’re relying on the courts to protect endangered animals and the creeks where they live.” The records show officials in West Virginia appealed to the Trump administration for shortcuts for protections for the Guyandotte River and Big Sandy crayfish, which the officials claimed were harming the coal industry. In response Vincent DeVito, a former high-level Trump official in the U.S. Department of the Interior, did an end run around the Fish and Wildlife Service. DeVito signed a guidance document presented to him by the West Virginia Division of Mining limiting protections for the crayfish. The state then issued mining permits in crayfish habitat. Those permits blindsided Service officials who were actively developing their own guidance to protect the crayfish. Today’s notice challenges the ongoing reliance on a slightly modified version of the state’s guidance. The public records reveal extensive efforts by Trump administration appointees to prevent the Fish and Wildlife Service from following science and doing what is needed to protect the crayfish.  Groups joining today’s notice include Appalachian Mountain Advocates, OVEC - the Ohio Valley Environmental Coalition, Sierra Club West Virginia Chapter and West Virginia Highlands Conservancy.

Toxins in the ground: Inside America's most polluted coal ash site and industry's struggle with federal rules -In the fall of 2017, Jason Peeler flew over his cattle ranch, a little over 40 miles south of San Antonio. The weather was dry, "bone dry," but he noticed something unusual: There was water sitting on a portion of his land he had not stepped foot on in years. That’s when he realized something was amiss with the land his family had leased to the San Miguel Electric Cooperative (SMEC) three decades earlier. The 391 MW San Miguel coal plant burns just meters from the Peeler family's home, visible far down the rural highway that leads to the ranch — the single stack's steady billow stands out among the miles of rolling Texas hills. Three ponds stand next to the plant; the daily task of two is to absorb dry coal ash, the byproduct of burning coal. Water turns the ash into a heavy sludge of toxic metals, and gravity pulls the concoction further below ground.  In March of this year the co-op’s coal plant, set to remain open until 2037, was named the most contaminated in the country by the Environmental Integrity Project (EIP), reporting unsafe levels of at least 12 coal ash contaminants. Now, the family wants their land restored to its original condition. "There were people screaming and hollering a long time ago, you just didn't listen," Jason Peeler said. "You hear them talk about dirty coal and think: ‘OK, I don't really see that much coming out the stack.’ I thought they were doing a pretty good job of getting all that stuff out. Anyways, it turns out they were — they were pulling it all out and stacking it on our property." The Peelers’ story and the land they live on is a microcosm of a problem utilities are facing today: Data from electric companies across the country show that almost every coal plant in the country is contaminating the ground they sit on with chemicals, many of them toxic. For utilities that have dealt with adverse impacts of the contamination publicly, pressure to clean up is mounting. But the federal regulations intended to direct cleanup efforts leave many dumpsites untouched, and the Environmental Protection Agency is in the process of eroding oversight further in a rulemaking proceeding that began in March of last year.

Coal ash from power plants in Puerto Rico finds its way to Osceola County landfill - Boat loads of coal ash—generated as waste from Puerto Rico’s power plants—are crossing the Atlantic Ocean and getting transferred into trucks before ending up in a Central Florida landfill. Those living near the Holopaw landfill are worried because they are already having issues with their water. "We have to have filters on every house, it's the odor," said resident David Braun. "You get a lot of odor, like the egg smell and that." Channel 9 discovered the J.E.D. Landfill on Omni Way in St. Cloud and others like it have been taking coal dust for years—but only from in-state sources. Osceola County leaders had to approve an exemption to existing rules last month and lasting through December in order to allow the Puerto Rican coal ash to be dumped within county lines. Lawsuits over alleged coal-ash sickness in east Orange County are spotlighting known health issues with certain types of coal ash. The controversy plays into the public dialogue happening in Osceola County, though the specifics of each county’s involvement with coal waste differs. In 2017, Puerto Rico banned dumping coal ash for the "life, health and general welfare of the people," according to the territory’s Senate Bill 81 from that year. "Puerto Rico has a lot of problems with illegal dumping," said Commissioner Fred Hawkins, who heads Osceola County's District 5 and believes any comparisons are unfail. "When you see these ash pools that people are talking about with no liners, that's really illegal dumping." Hawkins and landfill officials are asking residents to trust the system, arguing that the J.E.D. facility is built to DEP and EPA standards, double-lined to prevent seepage into the ground and government-monitored for leaks. Puerto Rico lacks such facilities, Hawkins said. Hawkins abstained from the vote, but the rest of the county’s commissioners approved the lowering of fees associated with disposing of Puerto Rico’s coal ash, making it cheaper for the island’s utilities to get rid of the waste and potentially more profitable for J.E.D.’s owner, Waste Connections, which declined to answer questions Tuesday about the volume of coal ash being disposed of in Osceola County.

TVA defends its role in trade group -- The Tennessee Valley Authority is defending its participation in a utility trade organization that has often been on the front lines of legal challenges to tighter air pollution standards.Since 2001, TVA, the government-owned power producer that touts a commitment to environmental protection, has contributed more than $7 million to the Utility Air Regulatory Group, according to President and CEO Jeffrey Lyash.In return, the company has gotten help in understanding and complying with "highly technical and complex" Clean Air Act regulations, Lyash wrote in response to a recent congressional inquiry.The utility organization, usually known by its acronym UARG, has long been barred from representing TVA in lawsuits unless the authority gives written approval, Lyash said, adding that it has never taken that step.But a copy of TVA's latest UARG membership agreement obtained by E&E News acknowledges that "the information and analyses" exchanged among group members and their lawyers "are developed in anticipation of litigation." Consequently, TVA's defense amounts to "linguistic gymnastics," said David Pomerantz, executive director of the Energy and Policy Institute, a California-based watchdog group critical of UARG. "The idea that TVA could have spent over $7 million of its customers' money on UARG's lawyers since 2001 ... without supporting UARG's central mission of undermining EPA clean air rules is laughable on its face," Pomerantz said in an email today.

U.S. uranium production in 2018 was the lowest in nearly 70 years - The United States produced 1.47 million pounds of uranium concentrate in 2018, down for the fourth consecutive year and the lowest total since 1950, based on preliminary production data. Uranium production in the United States has declined since its peak of 43.7 million pounds in 1980 and has remained below 5 million pounds annually for more than 20 years. As domestic uranium production has declined over the past several decades, owners and operators of commercial nuclear power plants in the United States have obtained more uranium from foreign sources. Canada has historically been the largest single source of imported uranium, followed by Australia, Russia, and Kazakhstan, countries in which the cost of uranium is lower than in the United States. Preparing uranium for use as fuel in nuclear reactors involves several steps. The production of uranium concentrate—U3O8, known more commonly as yellowcake—is the first step in the nuclear fuel production process. In 2018, uranium concentrate was produced at seven U.S. facilities: one uranium mill in Utah and six in-situ leach plants in Wyoming and Nebraska. In-situ leaching, or in-situ recovery, extracts uranium that coats sand and gravel particles of groundwater reservoirs. The process involves injecting a solution into the reservoir that causes the uranium to dissolve into the groundwater. This water is then pumped out of the reservoir and processed at a uranium mill. Uranium milling involves extracting uranium ore, crushing it into a fine powder, and adding chemicals to separate the uranium. Groundwater from in-situ leach operations is processed at a mill by extracting and concentrating the uranium.  EIA recently updated its U.S. Energy Mapping System to include uranium resources across the country. Uranium production facility information was also updated. The new uranium layers include Identified resource areas, which include uranium provinces, districts, and select important deposits. Uranium associated with phosphate, which are sedimentary phosphate deposits that contain trace amounts of uranium. When uranium prices are high enough, producers may extract trace uranium as part of the phosphate mining process.

Three Mile Island Nuclear Plant To Close, Latest Symbol of Struggling Industry - 40 years after the nation's worst commercial nuclear accident, the remaining reactor still operating at Three Mile Island in South-central Pennsylvania is closing. Exelon announced Wednesday that Three Mile Island Generating Station Unit 1 will shut down by September 30th. The company says the plant has been losing money for years. The nuclear industry generally has struggled to compete with less expensive electricity generated from natural gas and renewable energy. Exelon first announced it would close two years ago unless lawmakers stepped in to keep it open. It then campaigned to save the plant by seeking a subsidy from Pennsylvania's legislature. The company argued that, in light of climate change and efforts to address it, the plant deserves compensation for the carbon-free electricity it produces. That argument has worked in other states, including Connecticut, Illinois, New Jersey and New York. But in Pennsylvania, the state's powerful natural gas industry opposed it, along with industrial users and consumer advocates, calling the proposal a "bailout". When it became clear the subsidy legislation wouldn't pass within the next month Exelon decided to retire the plant, which was licensed to operate for 15 more years.

'Apples the size of watermelons': A psychologist reveals what it was like to grow up in the Chernobyl fallout zone - Janina Scarlet was four months shy of her third birthday when disaster struck near the Ukrainian town of Chernobyl. On April 26, 1986 at around 1:23 a.m., a blazing fireball blew the lid off the area's nuclear reactor, spreading toxic radiation into the air. Radioactive debris released into the atmosphere reached the riverside town of Vinnytsia some 200 miles away, where Scarlet's family lived.  "We were told it was contained, and that everything was fine. As a result, people in Ukraine continued going outside, and breathing the fresh air, and drinking un-boiled water, and eating raw fruit. And all of it was poisoned." Although it's been 33 years since the Chernobyl explosion, the health consequences of that radiation exposure still plague people who lived near the plant. The Chernobyl disaster has been directly blamed for fewer than 50 deaths from radiation poisoning, but many researchers say the full death tally from the Chernobyl explosion and its lingering effects may never be known. The World Health Organization estimates that eventually, the disaster may become responsible for some 5,000 cancer deaths. After the accident, everything within a 30-kilometer radius of the nuclear plant was deemed off-limits. But Scarlet's family lived outside that small area, so they remained in the larger fallout zone for nine years post-Chernobyl. She remembers getting sick for long periods of time, staying home from school, and going to the hospital.  "I would get nose bleeds that wouldn't clot." Today, Scarlet works as a licensed psychologist and lives in San Diego, California, though she still gets weather-related migraines even there. She also suffers about one seizure each year and is forbidden from driving a car for that reason. Beyond her physical health, Scarlet said tiny "snippets" of memories from the months after the disaster still linger in her mind. "Gigantic fruit," she recalled. "Apples almost the size of watermelons." Other consequences of living in the fallout zone were eerily serene. "My parents tell me it was the most beautiful spring they'd ever seen because, apparently, it caused a lot of blossoming, a lot of booming," she said. "Unfortunately, a lot of it was toxic."Kids who lived near the Chernobyl site have increased instances of thyroid cancer, and adults who helped with the reactor cleanup are more at risk of developing leukemia. The American Cancer Society says "there is no threshold below which this kind of radiation is thought to be totally safe." "I did know a couple of people that were very young and developed cancer very rapidly and then died very quickly," she said, adding that a few years after the accident, "my friend's mom died of cancer when she was 35."

Ohio lawmakers seek to relax profit limits on FirstEnergy, other utilities - cleveland.com -- State rules to prevent significantly excessive profits by FirstEnergy and other Ohio utilities would be loosened by language slipped into Ohio’s massive two-year budget bill.If passed, the Akron-based utility would stand to make more money from ratepayers, rather than having to issue refunds to more than a million customers in northeast and north-central Ohio.The amendment, one of dozens added by lawmakers last week, would change the state’s calculation of what constitutes “significantly excessive” profits in a way that allows the utility’s subsidiaries -- Ohio Edison, Cleveland Electric Illuminating Company and Toledo Edison -- to “artificially dilute” the profits they report, said Jeff Jacobson of the Ohio Consumers’ Counsel, during legislative testimony Tuesday.Currently, the three subsidiaries are each restricted from making “significantly excessive” profits (a term that isn’t specifically defined in Ohio law, though two recent Public Utilities Commission of Ohio rulings indicate the profit limit is about 17 percent per year).Under the amendment, the PUCO would consider the profits made by all three subsidiaries averaged together. This would allow Ohio Edison to make a windfall, Jacobson said, as its higher profits would be grouped with the lower profit margins of Toledo Edison and Cleveland Electric Illuminating companies.FirstEnergy reported an overall profit of $981 million in 2018.Mark Durbin, external communications manager for FirstEnergy, noted in a statement that Ohio Edison, Cleveland Electric Illuminating Company and Toledo Edison have all consistently passed the state’s Significantly Excessive Earnings Test, or SEET. “Because our three utilities operate under a single PUCO-approved rate plan, we believe it is appropriate to apply a single SEET to our three Ohio utility companies,” Durbin stated. “This change to a single, or aggregate SEET would provide FirstEnergy’s Ohio utilities more flexibility to allocate investments across their entire footprint, which benefits our customers.”

Closing nuclear plants will spike pollution, regulator says | Toledo Blade -- The new chairman of the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio on Tuesday told lawmakers there’s little doubt carbon pollution in the state will spike if the state’s two nuclear power plants are decommissioned. “You would have most likely a flare-up of natural gas generation technology, because that’s technology that can be built quickly,” Chairman Sam Randazzo said. “It’s the most nimble.” A former lobbyist who represented major industrial users on utility issues, Mr. Randazzo stressed he wasn’t speaking on behalf of the commission, which decides what costs utilities can pass on to their customers. The House Energy and Natural Resources Committee is considering House Bill 6, which, when fully implemented, would create an annual pot of more than $300 million, fueled by surcharges on customers’ bills. The proceeds would be used to reward the generation of electricity that emits no or less carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The state’s two nuclear plants on the shore of Lake Erie — Davis-Besse about 30 miles east of Toledo and Perry about 40 miles east of Cleveland — are expected to qualify for at least half of that pot. At the same time, the bill would do away with existing mandates that utilities find increasingly more of their power from renewable sources like wind and solar and reduce energy consumption overall. Critics characterize it as a consumer bailout for the nuclear plants, which have been unable to compete with cheaper and abundant natural gas. Their owner, FirstEnergy Solutions, is in bankruptcy proceedings and has said it will close both if they don’t find a buyer or some market for their more expensive power. Davis-Besse, the largest employer in Ottawa County, would stop generating power no later than May 31, 2020.

Conservatives criticize FirstEnergy nuclear bailout bill as ‘corporate welfare’ - Ohio Republicans pushing a bill to subsidize two nuclear plants are finding themselves at odds with conservative groups in the state. Substitute House Bill 6, which was advanced out of a subcommittee on May 2, would add more than $300 million to customer bills across the state once all its provisions kick in, with the lion’s share going to subsidize FirstEnergy Solutions’ Davis-Besse and Perry nuclear power plants. Other energy suppliers could also get some of those funds, including certain coal plants. A committee hearing is scheduled for 9 a.m. Tuesday, May 7. Both the Buckeye Institute and Americans for Prosperity’s Ohio chapter were among dozens of parties who offered testimony to the committee late last month along with clean energy groups, consumer advocates and other opponents. “[I]n the plain-spoken language most Ohioans prefer to use, HB 6 is corporate welfare,” said Micah Derry, Ohio state director of Americans for Prosperity. “It is cronyism on full display; in other words, a bailout.” Likewise, research fellow Greg Lawson of the Buckeye Institute called HB 6’s provisions “classic examples of government subsidies being used to prop up declining businesses — the Davis-Besse and Perry nuclear power plants operated by FirstEnergy Solutions.” And while there would be some funds that could be drawn upon by other entities, those monies risk “becoming a glorified slush fund with the real incentive being for companies to find new and creative ways to tap into that fund,” rather than risking their own capital, he added. Lawson told the Energy News Network that his organization’s opposition differs from that of environmental groups, clean energy companies or other competitors, saying that other organizations have largely focused on how the bill would affect them. “The Buckeye Institute opposes the idea of taxpayer subsidies irrespective of who benefits from being handed taxpayer dollars to support their business, and we are consistent on this point,” Lawson said.

EQT fined $330K for erosion violations in Allegheny County | StateImpact Pennsylvania - Natural gas driller EQT was fined $330,000 by the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection for erosion violations at two natural gas sites in Allegheny County.The agency said sediment from two well pads in Forward Township was eroding into a tributary to Kelly Run, which flows into the Monongahela River.The problems were first spotted by a DEP inspection in February 2018, when inspectors found “sediment laden waters” were flowing over erosion control barriers at the Fetchen and Prentice well pad sites.  The agency found the company built a road at the Prentice site without first getting a state permit to do so. The company was also cited for not informing the DEP of its erosion problems, which it is required to do by the conditions of its state-issued erosion control permits. The erosion problems continued until EQT corrected them in May 2018 at the Prentice site and November 2018 at the Fetchen site.“DEP expects all permittees — particularly large, longtime operators — to construct facilities and report problems in accordance with state regulations and permit conditions, but these failures demonstrate the importance of verifying compliance and enforcing the regulations,” said DEP Deputy Secretary for Oil and Gas Management Scott Perry, in a statement.  EQT spokeswoman Linda Robertson said in a statement the company “takes environmental compliance seriously” but blamed abnormally wet weather on some of the companies erosion problems. Despite the company’s efforts, “EQT did not keep up with the continually changing weather and precipitation. In fact, Pennsylvania experienced unprecedented rainfall in February 2018, which resulted in challenging (erosion) conditions.” Last year was the wettest on record in the Pittsburgh region.

State conducting criminal investigation of shale gas production - State Attorney General Josh Shapiro is pursuing criminal investigations of “environmental crimes” committed by the oil and gas industry in Washington County and possibly throughout the state.In an Aug. 16, 2018, letter to attorneys in a civil case before the Washington County Court of Common Pleas, Mr. Shapiro and his office said they already had accepted a referral and “assumed jurisdiction over several criminal investigations involving environmental crimes in Washington County.”By that time Washington County District Attorney Eugene Vittone already had discussed with and referred claims of environmental problems in shale gas development to the attorney general’s office. Three Washington County residents told the Post-Gazette that they have spoken with AG investigators and were told they could be called to testify, with a Washington County woman saying that she already presented testimony before an investigative state grand jury in Pittsburgh. Joe Grace, spokesman for Mr. Shapiro and the state Office of Attorney General, said, “We cannot confirm or deny the existence of an investigation.”The AG’s letter was introduced as an exhibit during an August court hearing on the civil case brought by Stacey Haney in 2012 against Range Resources Appalachia LLC, and specially referenced as the “Stacey Haney/Range Resources Investigation.”“It has come to our attention that one of the potential criminal investigations involves your respective clients,” said the two-paragraph letter signed by Courtney Butterfield, deputy attorney general and obtained recently by the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette from someone not involved in the case. The letter noted that a significant record of documents, statements, depositions, scientific tests and physical evidence had been compiled for the civil case. It requested that attorneys preserve that record, under penalty of law if they failed to do so.

DEP approves Adelphia compressor station in West Rockhill - At least one local environmental says the April 19 approval seemed to come out of nowhere, leaving little time for it and others to appeal.A proposed natural gas compressor station in West Rockhill might be moving forward after state approval last month, a decision that seemingly came out of nowhere for at least one local group.The state Department of Environmental Protection approved plans for a controversial compressor station on April 19 as part of a proposed Adelphia Gateway LLC pipeline through the area, a legal notice in the Pennsylvania Bulletin states.Bucks County Concerned Citizens Against the Pipeline organizer Arianne Elinich said neither her group nor area residents knew the approval was coming, giving little time to prepare an appeal.Adelphia is currently seeking Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approval for a natural gas pipeline through Northampton, Bucks, Montgomery, Chester and Delaware counties in Pennsylvania and New Castle County in Delaware. Commonly known as the Quakertown Compressor station, Adelphia proposes a 5,625-horsepower compressor station in an 8,000- to 10,000-square-foot building at a 1.5-acre site on Rich Hill Road, near the border of West Rockhill and Richland.

Chester county state representative faces backlash for bringing Nazis into pipeline debate - A Southeastern Pennsylvania lawmaker who opposes the Mariner East 2 pipeline is being criticized by unions that represent pipeline workers, and others, for a tweet one fellow House member called a “poor choice of words.”At the center of the discord was a freshmen Democratic representative and a tweet about Nazis.On Saturday, Chester County Democrat Danielle Friel Otten got in a Twitter exchange with a pro-pipeline group.She’d been supporting protesters who were using cars to block pipeline work — a reaction to Sunoco, the pipeline developer, buying nearby homes that have been affected by construction-induced sinkholes over the last few years.Friel Otten lives near those homes and was elected, in large part, based on apledge to oppose the Mariner East 2. She said she didn’t organize the protest, but that once she found out it was happening near her house, it was “really important to me to have the backs of my constituents and my neighbors, and to welcome them to sit on my patio.”  During the protest, the Pennsylvania Energy Infrastructure Alliance tweeted that protesters were preventing workers from doing their jobs. In a now-deleted tweet, Friel Otten responded that “The Nazis were just doing their jobs too,” and linked a PBS article on coercion by people in power. “What I meant by that, is that this excuse of people just doing their jobs to validate harming people is not an acceptable argument,” she said. Backlash was quick. Fellow Southeastern Democrat David heads the region’s Teamsters Union. He said he has received a lot of calls from members upset with his colleague. “It’s a poor choice of words,” the Delaware County Representative said. “It’s not a fair comparison. I mean these are working folk, these are salt-of-the-earth people.” “The word that was used is a highly offensive word, and the fact that she is a state legislator, a Democrat no less, to use that kind of language so flippantly and to not even issue some type of an apology just blows my mind.”

Dominion CEO says will take Atlantic Coast Pipeline fight to Supreme Court -- Dominion Energy, fighting to resume construction on the $7.8B Atlantic Coast Pipeline, plans to take its case all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court, CEO Tom Farrell says.The regulatory process has been "very frustrating" but the company will not back down from the project as planned, which would pump fracked natural gas from West Virginia through Virginia and into North Carolina, Farrell says.But environmentalists - represented in court by the Southern Environmental Law Center - also say they will not back down, but SELC attorney Greg Buppert notes the Supreme Court takes less than 1% of cases presented to it and typically hears cases involving constitutional issues or conflicts between lower courts."Neither of those issues are present here... So I think Dominion has a very steep hill to climb," Buppert says. "From a reasonableness standpoint, it never made sense to build an interstate gas pipeline through two national forests, a national park and some of the steepest mountains in Virginia and West Virginia," Buppert says. "The company has stubbornly stuck to that route," adding that its problems "are entirely self-inflicted."

Atlantic Coast Pipeline defends U.S. Fish and Wildlife permit under scrutiny — The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service defended a permit issued to allow work on the Atlantic Coast Pipeline. The Charleston Gazette-Mail said that environmental lawyers argued that the building of the pipeline could endanger the Rusty Patched Bumble Bee, an endangered mussel known as the Clubshell, the Indiana Bat and a threatened crustacean called the Madison Cave Isopod. D.J. Gerken, attorney at the Southern Environmental Law Center, told judges on the 4th Circuit Court of Appeals in Richmond on Thursday that Fish and Wildlife had ignored information indicating that there was a threat to these species. An Incidental Take Statement from Fish and Wildlife was vacated by judges in May of 2018, ruling that the permit was too vague. A permit from the National Park Service was also vacated, and a stop-work order was put in place by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, The Charleston Gazette-Mail reports. The Incidental Take Statement that is being contested now is the second issued by Fish and Wildlife, and was released in a revised Biological Opinion in September of 2018. The most recent Biological Opinion from Fish and Wildlife, which included an Incidental Take Statement, along with a new permit from the National Park Service, led to FERC lifting the stop-work order, The Charleston Gazette-Mail reports. The Charleston Gazette-Mail reports that Virginia Department of Conservation and Recreation informed Fish and Wildlife that there were Rusty Patched Bumble Bee populations near the project, and the SELC has argued that the appropriate amount of research has not been done to understand what could happen to the bee population if the project goes through the area. Fish and Wildlife consulted an expert concerning the bees, but Judge Stephanie Thacker disputed the opinion, because the expert had said that all she had was a "wild guess."

 Feds warn companies on landslide hazards - Federal regulators are reminding pipeline companies of the dangers posed by erosion and landslides. The Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) has issued an "advisory bulletin" about the hazards, which have been dogging pipeline builders and operators as they try to move natural gas and other products through the mountainous Appalachian region. Landslides, subsidence, floods and other geological hazards can bend pipelines beyond the breaking point, causing ruptures, spills and explosions. "Owners and operators of gas and hazardous liquid pipelines are reminded that earth movement, particularly in variable, steep, and rugged terrain and with varied geological subsurface conditions, can pose a threat to the integrity of a pipeline if those threats are not mitigated,"   Among other measures, the bulletin suggests monitoring lines with strain gauges, which measure movement of the pipes. PHMSA could use the bulletin to strengthen its case in future enforcement actions if geologic hazards such as landslides cause explosions or other accidents. The bulletin could make such an action less vulnerable to appeal by establishing that pipeline operators should be aware of the hazards and rules. Pipeline industry representatives say they already have detailed, established methods to avoid damage to their lines from landslides and other movement.  Pipelines in Appalachia have been plagued in the past year by landslides and other problems resulting from land movement. The landslides have often been linked to unusually heavy rains. Heavy rains have also caused problems for construction of the Atlantic Coast and Mountain Valley pipelines through Virginia and West Virginia (E&E News PM, Dec. 7, 2018). The notice cited seven explosions and spills as "notable." Most were in Appalachia, such as a Jan. 29 rupture near Lumberport, W.Va., caused when a landslide moved an Equitrans Midstream Corp. pipeline about 10 feet. But it also cited a 2016 spill in North Dakota caused by a landslide and a 2016 explosion on a 22-inch gas transmission line in Montecito, Calif., as the region battled flooding and mudslides. It does not mention a January explosion in southeastern Ohio linked to land movement. The explosion on the 30-inch Texas Eastern Transmission pipeline injured two people and damaged two homes (Energywire, April 3). But it does refer to another explosion a year earlier 5 miles away on a different pipeline, the Rockies Express.

Crews clean up roughly 75-125 gallons of fuel from spill - (WWBT) - The Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) estimates 75-125 gallons of number 2 fuel oil spilled throughout a Lakeside neighborhood Sunday. Henrico County Fire crews responded to Cedar Croft Street just before noon Sunday for a report of oil in the waterway. Hazmat crews were able to contain the spill that had already traveled 0.8 miles along the ditch into a nearby creek. “We received a statewide alert regarding the fuel spill,” said Steve Tubman with Virginia DEQ. More than 24 hours after the spill there was still a faint odor in the air, but crews with First Call Environmental were there all day Monday cleaning up the mess. "It started where the new fence is, and it runs the length of the ditch,” Tubman said. “It then goes underground for several feet and comes back out into a spring fed creek." At this point how the spill happened remains under investigation, however, originally fire officials said a contractor accidentally leaked fuel in a ditch. "At this point we don't have that information," Tubman said. The roughly 75-125 gallons of fuel spilled is a type of fuel used to heat homes. Neighbors said many of the houses in the area have these oil tanks in their basement, but most aren’t used anymore. In an effort to clean up the spill, crews excavated the ditch; removing any soil that may have soaked up the fuel. Booms were also used and will remain in the neighborhood.

Potential gas pipeline expansion to run adjacent to Haw River - Residents of Alamance County have been working hard to fight against a potential pipeline extension that would run through much of their land and propose a threat to the environment around them. The extension of Mountain Valley Pipeline "Southgate" is set to be decided by 2020. Until then, community activism is set to continue.MVP proposed its "Southgate" project in May 2018, an extension of the preexistingMVP pipeline that currently spans 73 miles from southern Virginia to central North Carolina.The 73-mile extension would expand into southern Virginia and cross into central North Carolina in Rockingham County and end in Alamance County.The pipeline will transport vast amounts of natural gas supply from the Marcellus and Utica shale production (located in New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia) to markets in the mid- and south-Atlantic regions of the United States, according to MVP. Much of community concern derives from the notion that the pipeline extension would be a gas-fracking system.  Caroline Hansley, an organizer for the Sierra Club — the largest environmental organization in the country with more than 3.5 million members — said the pipeline “is a high-pressure fracked-gas pipeline.”  But, MVP Southgate does not mention anything about a gas-fracking system.  “This is an interstate natural gas transmission line, and it does not involve any natural gas production in Virginia or North Carolina,” said Shawn Day, MVP’s media representative. The 24-by-16-inch pipeline is designed to transport 375 million cubic feet of natural gas per day to the Public Service Company of North Carolina Energy (PSNC) now known as Dominion Energy to customers as well as to new and existing markets in southern Virginia and central North Carolina.   Before any construction begins, MVP must obtain necessary regulatory authorizations from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). The MVP Southgate team will also seek review from other federal, state and local agencies.

Williams Receives FERC Certificate Authorizing Northeast Supply Enhancement Project - Williams today reported that the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) has issued a certificate of public convenience and necessity authorizing the Northeast Supply Enhancement project – an expansion of the existing Transco natural gas pipeline designed to serve New York markets in time for the 2020/2021 winter heating season. The Northeast Supply Enhancement project will provide 400,000 dekatherms per day of additional natural gas supply to National Grid – the largest distributor of natural gas in the northeastern United States. National Grid is converting about 8,000 customers per year from heating oil to natural gas in New York City and Long Island. The Northeast Supply Enhancement Project is critical to make these conversions possible, as well as keep up with new development in the area. “NESE will provide access to critical supply to serve our customers in New York City and on Long Island, ensuring there is enough natural gas for them to heat their homes and run their businesses,” said National Grid New York President John Bruckner. “This project aligns with our 80x50 pathway to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and supports City and State clean energy goals, while improving safety, reliability, resiliency and maintaining affordability and customer choice.” The Order issued by the Commission concludes a nearly three-year regulatory review process, ultimately determining that the Northeast Supply Enhancement project will serve the public interest and that environmental impacts would be minimized with the implementation of mitigation measures proposed by the company and FERC. Following the receipt of all necessary regulatory approvals, Williams anticipates beginning construction on the Northeast Supply Enhancement project facilities in the fall of 2019.

Landmark FERC pipeline challenge fails -- An appellate court today tossed a lawsuit targeting a federal plan to significantly narrow climate analyses for natural gas infrastructure. During oral arguments last month, judges for the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit seemed skeptical of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's defense of its drastic climate policy shift (Energywire, April 12). But the case failed on the question of whether the plaintiff in the case, the small New York environmental nonprofit Otsego 2000, had standing to bring the challenge. "Otsego's affidavits do not identify any injury other than the organization's expenditure of time and money related to this litigation," the court wrote in a short order today. The lawsuit was born from FERC's refusal last year to rehear a challenge to Dominion Energy Transmission Inc.'s New Market Project, a set of gas infrastructure upgrades in upstate New York. FERC's Republican majority used the procedural document to announce a seismic shift in its approach to analyzing and disclosing upstream and downstream greenhouse gas emissions from the projects the agency authorizes. Democratic Commissioners Cheryl LaFleur and Richard Glick penned pointed dissents, and Glick made a rare appearance at oral arguments in the case. During the hearing, the judges — Clinton appointees Merrick Garland and David Tatel and Obama pick Robert Wilkins — asked counsel for Otsego 2000 to defend the group's standing. Legal experts who attended arguments noted FERC's placement of its policy change inside proceedings for a low-profile project was likely a strategic move.

Reps Overseeing Pipeline Safety are Profiting From Pipeline Companies -- Fossil fuel pipeline safety standards are set by the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA), which states that its mission is to “protect people and the environment by advancing the safe transportation of energy.” Since 2011, PHSMA has left open several rulemaking procedures to establish safety standards for natural gas pipelines, but it has so far failed to conclude any of them. While these rules sit in limbo, there have been several fatal gas pipeline incidents, including at least three in 2018—the Columbia Gas explosion in Massachusetts, an explosion in Texas that was caused by a leaking gas gathering pipeline, and an explosion of an Atmos pipeline, also in Texas.. It is estimated that there are now at least 439,000 miles of unregulated natural gas pipeline in the U.S. The lack of regulation means that pipeline companies are rarely penalized when their lines explode and cause property damage, injuries, or deaths. “[PHMSA uses] a figure of about $9-10 million as the benefit of a human life,” Weimer said. “So if you have a tragedy like San Bruno that kills 8 people and you go through a cost-benefit to look at installing new valves on pipelines, and you say that over the course of 10 years you’re going to prevent 10 lives from being lost, that would be worth about $100 million. At the same time if you look at what the cost would be for the industry to put a valve on every mile of pipeline that might be required…the cost of implementing automated valves way outweighs the benefit of the human lives you’re going to save.” The laws regulating the pipeline industry, including the cost-benefit analysis requirement, fall under the jurisdiction of the U.S. House Railroads, Pipelines, and Hazardous Materials Subcommittee. The subcommittee, part of the Transportation & Infrastructure Committee, is responsible for legislation reauthorizing the PHMSA every few years and establishing laws governing its operation and rulemaking process. So far the subcommittee has not passed legislation to address the agency’s stalled rulemaking process. According to a Sludge analysis of financial disclosures, the members of the Railroads, Pipelines, and Hazardous Materials Subcommittee have as much as $2.8 million invested in fossil fuel companies that own and operate oil and gas pipelines, presenting significant conflicts of interest. Many of the companies in which the representatives, both Democrats and Republicans, are personally invested are members of trade groups that oppose the PHSMA’s proposals to regulate natural gas gathering pipelines. The American Petroleum Institute and the GPA Midstream Association filed a joint position paper with the Department of Transportation in December 2018 opposing much of the PHSMA’s proposal for regulating gas gathering pipelines, stating that the new regulations would cost the industry $28 billion over a 15-year period.

 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report- Early June Outlook Is Bearish - EIA reported a storage build of 85 Bcf for the week ending May 3. This compares to the +89 Bcf we projected and consensus average of +87 Bcf. The +85 Bcf was higher than the five-year average of +70 Bcf but lower than last year's +89 Bcf. For the week ending May 10, we have a storage build of 100 Bcf. November EOS is forecasted to be 3.70 Tcf. We remain long our 1/4 sized UGAZ position. TDDs are projected to be higher than normal for the next 15 days. Even though we are long at the moment, the latest ECMWF-EPS long-range outlook was not supportive of the bull case. For the time being, the June weather outlook appears to show a colder than normal set-up, which would keep CDDs at bay. You also can see this explanation from the Commodity Wx Group: We estimate that if June is indeed colder than normal, then storage builds will be very sizable. We would see consecutive 100+ Bcf builds as low natural gas prices won't help offset the lower CDDs. In addition, another bullish point - production - was recently eliminated as the drop we observed earlier in the week was corrected. Temporary outages impacted production, so we are seeing lower 48 production regain ~89 Bcf/d. With production higher and demand projected to be lower, this spells the bear case for natural gas. But readers must remember that during the summer gas trading period, prices tend to oscillate around a price band. Even though the storage builds will be large in June, we think the downside is capped by the higher power burn switching demand. But if Mother Nature is not supportive, we see summer gas prices capped at $2.7/MMBtu for the time being. For the natural gas bulls, a hotter than normal summer is needed to boost demand and help eliminate the surplus we see in the market. The focus will quickly shift back to weather outlooks by the end of May.

No Surprises in EIA Natural Gas Report; OPEC Crude Production Inches Higher - Natural gas futures are trading lower, showing limited response to today’s U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly storage report. The market is holding inside yesterday’s move, but lingering near the top of its one-week range. The chart pattern suggests investor indecision and impending volatility. Earlier in the session, the EIA reported that domestic supplies of natural gas rose by 85 billion cubic feet for the week-ended May 3. Traders were looking for a larger-than-average double-digit build. At 17:41 GMT, June Natural gas is trading $2.593, down $0.017 or -0.85%. A Bloomberg survey showed analysts were looking for a range of 79 Bcf to 108 Bcf, with a median 87 Bcf injection. International Exchange (ICE) EIA Financial Weekly Index futures settled Tuesday at a build of 86 Bcf. Natural Gas Intelligence’s (NGI) model predicted an 89 Bcf injection. Reuters predicted a build of 88 Bcf, down from last week’s 123 Bcf build. Last year, the EIA recorded an 85 Bcf build for the period, and the five-year average is an injection of 72 Bcf. Total stocks now stand at 1.547 trillion cubic feet, up 128 billion cubic feet from a year ago, but 303 billion below the 303 billion below the five-year average, the government said. U.S. West Texas Intermediate and international-benchmark Brent crude oil are trading lower, but up from their intraday lows. Some of the strength at the mid-session was fueled by a strong recovery in the stock market after President Trump said a trade deal with China was still a possibility. Also helping to underpin prices was a report that showed crude oil production in OPEC edged higher by a modest 30,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 30.26 million bpd last month. The S&P Global Platts survey showed the first increase after four months of steady declines. The report also showed production in Iran and Angola declined, but increased in Nigeria, Iraq and Libya. The S&P Platts survey also revealed surprisingly that production in Venezuela stabilized last month. Platts also said that the organization’s largest producer, Saudi Arabia, kept its production rate stable in April, at an average 9.82 million bpd. The Platts survey also showed that Iran saw an estimated 120,000 bpd drop in its production last month, to 2.57 million bpd. The reason was that many importers of Iranian crude stopped buying it in anticipation of the May 1 expiration of U.S. sanction waivers that Washington granted to eight large importers. At 17:55 GMT, June WTI crude oil is at $61.66, down $0.46 or -0.74% and July Brent crude oil is at $70.22, down $0.15 or -0.21%.

Collins, King back bipartisan effort to bar New England offshore drilling -- U.S. Sens. Susan Collins, R-Maine, and Angus King, I-Maine, are backing bipartisan legislation to prohibit offshore oil and gas drilling in New England, they announced on Monday.The bill, known as the New England Coastal Protection Act, was first introduced last year and has been reintroduced into the Senate by a group of New England lawmakers.Before the legislation was first introduced last year, Collins and King laid out some of their concerns in a letter then-U.S. Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke.Among other things they argued that even minor spills could cause serious harm to the lobster industry, which contributes an estimated $1.7 billion to the state’s economy, in addition to hurting other fisheries, aquaculture, and coastal tourism.On Monday, they elaborated on those concerns in a joint statement.“The waters off Maine’s coast provide a healthy ecosystem for our state’s fisheries and support a vigorous tourism industry, both of which sustain thousands of jobs and generate billions of dollars in revenue for Maine each year,” they said. They added: “With our environment so closely tied to the vitality of Maine’s economy, we cannot risk the health of our ocean on a shortsighted proposal that could impact our state for generations.  We are proud to join our colleagues from New England to underscore the necessity of protecting our waters from offshore drilling.” While the Trump Administration has signaled that plans to open new coastline to offshore drilling were tentatively sidelined, the U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management continues to review applications for permits to conduct seismic testing in the Atlantic Ocean, a precursor to oil and gas drilling, according to Monday's news release.

Amid Line 5 talks, who would share tunnel real estate? - Since its introduction in October, the proposed Straits of Mackinac utility tunnel has been touted for its potential to benefit multiple entities that own assets in the Straits. According to the agreement reached under Gov. Rick Snyder’s administration, the concrete structure at the bottom of the Straits of Mackinac would house replacement piping for Enbridge’s Line 5 petroleum pipeline, but could also be used to hold a number of phone, natural gas and electrical lines that currently run between Michigan’s upper and lower peninsulas. Last week, a letter from the American Transmission Company (ATC) cast some doubts on those promises. In that letter, addressed to the Chippewa Ottawa Resource Authority, Tim Finco, vice president for internal affairs at ATC, said “a tunnel is not an acceptable solution for ATC” for timing, safety and practicality reasons. “ATC does not believe that installing high-voltage electric lines in close proximity to high pressure oil or gas lines is a good idea,” Finco said. “Moreover, a utility tunnel carrying oil, gas and electric lines would dramatically increase costs. It is likely those costs would be passed on to U.P. electric users who already pay Michigan’s highest utility costs.” In a phone interview with the News-Review, a representative for ATC said it wasn’t the first time those concerns have been brought up. “ATC has been working closely with representatives from the governor’s office on such matters since the prior administration, and going forward to new administration, we will working with them for a plan,” said ATC spokeswoman Allisa Braatz. When asked if representatives of the company specifically raised their concerns during those early discussions with the governor’s office, she said they had.

Environmental groups push for ‘fracking transparency’ in Illinois - Republican state lawmakers from Southern Illinois pushed back last week against a bill that would require more public disclosure from oil and gas drilling companies whenever they use hydraulic fracturing, or “fracking” in their operations in the state. Their comments came during a hearing Tuesday in the House Energy and Environment Committee. It is considering House Bill 282, dubbed a “fracking transparency bill,” sponsored by Rep. Robyn Gabel (D-Evanston) and supported by environmental groups including Illinois People’s Action and Southern Illinoisans Against Fracturing Our Environment. “Property and health concerns clearly give the public the right to know where the wells are going and what frack chemicals are being used,” Bill Rau of Illinois People’s Action told the committee. “Some horizontal wells are drilled only 500 to 800 feet below the surface, which can be within or just below strata containing groundwater.” In 2013, Illinois passed a law requiring full public disclosure of large-scale fracking operations, but that law applied only to wells that inject more than 80,000 gallons of pressurized fluids. No such wells have been drilled in Illinois since that time, largely because there is little left of the underground oil and gas reserves in the state. The bill now being considered would extend those same public disclosure requirements to even the smallest fracking operations. Among other things, it would require the Illinois Department of Natural Resources to make public the location of every fracking permit it issues as well as the chemicals that are to be used in the fracking operation.

Shell, Energy Transfer Seek Louisiana Project Bids - Shell US LNG, LLC and Energy Transfer LP have issued an invitation to tender (ITT) to U.S. and international consortia for the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract for their Lake Charles LNG project in southwestern Louisiana. In a written statement Friday, the companies reported that the project calls for converting their existing LNG import facility in Lake Charles, La., to a large-scale export facility. In March of this year, the companies – 50/50 partners in the joint venture – reported that they had signed a project framework agreement.. That deal set the commercial terms and pathway to advance the 16.45-million-tonne-per-annum potential development toward final investment decision (FID), the companies stated. According to Shell and Energy Transfer, the Lake Charles LNG project is already fully permitted and uses existing infrastructure. Moreover, they stated the liquefaction facility would benefit from “abundant natural gas supply” as well as proximity to Energy Transfer’s pipeline network as well as other pipeline infrastructure.

Most US Offshore Resources Not Up for Grabs - Ninety-four percent of the United States’ offshore resources are not available for investment. That’s what Eric Oswald, vice president for the Americas at ExxonMobil, revealed during a presentation at the Offshore Technology Conference in Houston, Texas, on Wednesday. “You guys know how much of the U.S. offshore is available for investment? … Six percent. Ninety-four percent of our nation’s resources offshore … are not available for us to invest in,” Oswald told delegates attending the presentation. “Who’s losing there? I mean it’s the country, right? It’s a huge amount of potential lost there … That’s an astonishing number,” he added. According to a Bureau of Ocean Energy Management fact sheet (BOEM), U.S. Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) production accounts for about 18 percent of domestic crude oil and four percent of domestic natural gas supply. In fiscal year 2016, federal leasing revenues for the OCS were approximately $2.8 billion, the fact sheet highlighted. The mission of the BOEM is to manage development of U.S. OCS energy and mineral resources in an environmentally and economically responsible way, according to the organization’s website. 

BP Approves Thunder Horse Expansion in GOM - BP has approved the Thunder Horse Expansion Phase 2 project in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico, the company announced Monday. At its peak, the project is expected to add about 50,000 gross barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), with first oil expected in 2021. BP’s Thunder Horse expansion will add two new subsea production units with two new production wells. Plans include six additional wells to be drilled in the future as part of the overall development. The Thunder Horse expansion signifies the most recent major investment in the U.S. offshore region and follows other expansion projects at the platform in recent years. “This latest expansion at Thunder Horse is another example of how the Gulf of Mexico is leading the way in advantaged oil growth for BP, unlocking significant value and safely growing a high-margin business,” Starlee Sykes, BP’s regional president for the Gulf of Mexico and Canada, said in a company statement. “It also highlights our continued growth and momentum in a region that will remain a key part of BP’s global portfolio for years to come.” In October 2018, the company announced the Thunder Horse Northwest Expansion offshore Gulf of Mexico began four months ahead of schedule and would boost production at the platform by 30,000 boepd..

GOM Decommissioning Scene is Changing - Hardly an easy proposition to begin with, dismantling an offshore oil and gas platform in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is becoming even more challenging as the complexity of decommissioning and abandonment (D&A) projects intensifies.“The oil price declines that hit us in 2015-2016 caused many GOM production assets to become uneconomical,” Tom McNulty, Houston-based managing director of Great American Group, told Rigzone. “As such, low-hanging fruit – in shallow waters – was the recent focus and that aspect of D&A is less capital-intensive to do.” The D&A scene in GOM is changing, said McNulty. He explained that assets located in deeper water depths are increasingly reaching the end-of-life stage, translating into D&A projects that are much more challenging to complete.“The farther out you go, and the deeper the water, the more difficult the work,” said McNulty. “We are seeing that oftentimes the very same companies that built and installed GOM assets years ago are the very same companies that are hired to decommission them.”Citing government and market sources, McNulty highlighted the growing magnitude of D&A operations. Key data points include:

• Global D&A spending should reach $13 billion per year by 2040
• Worldwide, D&A expenditures will increase by 540 percent through 2040
• From 2021 to 2040, there will be an estimated 2,000 offshore D&A projects
• In just the GOM, decommissioning liabilities amount to roughly $40 billion.

Besides the logistical challenges associated with decommissioning remote offshore structures, the profit potential associated with the time-consuming process is minimal to nonexistent for the operator. As a project manager with Worley’s INTECSEA consultancy told Rigzone in 2018, an operator’s ultimate goal in the approximately five- to six-year D&A process is “to reduce overhead.”“The environmental and regulatory issues are multifold, particularly in this post-Macondo era,” said McNulty, adding that weather-related impacts, the need for specialized heavy equipment and cyclical shortages of skilled personnel represent other D&A challenges. “Litigation risk is massive, so a great deal of planning goes into each D&A project.”

 Is Deepwater In Permanent Decline?  No. At least according to a recent poll conducted during a presentation at the 2019 Offshore Technology Conference in Houston, Texas. The majority of poll participants attending the presentation, which focused on offshore deepwater, answered no when asked if they considered the segment to be in permanent decline. In a separate poll during the presentation, attendees were asked what they thought was the most promising technology innovation for deepwater in the next decade. Almost half of the participants for this poll answered “machine learning”, with 38 percent of participants siding with advances in mechanical, materials and electronics (MME). Nine percent answered “drones” and six percent answered “other”. Earlier this year, Rystad Energy revealed that it expects global deepwater liquid production to surpass 10 million barrels per day (MMbpd) this year, before rising further in 2020. The company confirmed to Rigzone back in February that global deepwater liquid production had never surpassed 10 MMbpd before. “With new fields starting up in Brazil and Gulf of Mexico, we expect the total deepwater liquid production to reach 10.3 MMbpd in 2019. This is an increase of 700,000 bpd compared to 2018,” Rystad said in a statement posted on its website in February. Angola, Norway, Nigeria, Brazil and the United States are the largest deepwater producers, Rystad Energy highlighted earlier this year.

Ship collides with barges, causing massive gas product spill - An outbound tanker collided with two barges in the Houston Ship Channel, releasing an unknown amount of gasoline product into the water, according to authorities. The crash happened around 3:15 p.m. Friday, just east of Barbours Cut. One barge capsized. The other was damaged and leaked the product into the water. Both were carrying about 25,000 barrels of reformate. The Houston Ship Channel was closed from Light 61 to Light 75.Officials initially said about 25,000 barrels of reformate entered the water, but later said they were not sure how much was released. Reformate is a refined product that is blended with gasoline to boost octane to achieve levels needed for commercial sales. It is an extremely flammable liquid and vapor and can be fatal if it is swallowed. Reformate is toxic to marine life. The name of the 755-foot tanker that struck the barges was Genesis River and it was headed to Bayport Container Dock No. 5, officials said. Friendswood dispatch reported receiving several calls related to a smell of gasoline within the city. Officials said the smell is directly related to the crash in the Ship Channel. Galveston County officials said the Port of Houston and Center for Toxicology and Environmental Health are currently monitoring the air quality in and around the accident. County officials said the monitoring reports are not showing any detectable levels of concern in air quality in Kemah and Clear Lake Shores. Friendswood officials said tests were completed for Friendswood and League City, and said the results were "good with no detections of actionable levels of chemicals found." The city said there is no danger to the public. Officials said people should turn off air conditioners to limit the smell within homes. Via Sky 2 video, one of the barges could be seen with a significant amount of damage. No injuries have been reported.

Permian Oil Storage Facility Project Goes to KBR - KBR, Inc. has won a reimbursable front-end engineering design (FEED) and engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract for improvements to a Permian Basin oil gathering and storage terminal in West Texas, the company reported Thursday. KBR did not specify who awarded the contract, only stating that it is a “Tier 1 International Oil Company.” Under the contract, KBR will provide reimbursable cost FEED and EPC services to support the installation and construction of terminal facilities excluding storage tanks. The company noted that the facilities will handle Permian crude oil and condensate for transport to the Gulf Coast.

Shale producer Pioneer Natural Resources to cut executive ranks (Reuters) - Pioneer Natural Resources said on Tuesday it has asked nearly a third of its executives to leave their jobs as the U.S. shale producer continues to trim costs and considers selling more assets. The company expects to save $100 million annually with the job cuts and a new organizational structure, Chief Executive Scott Sheffield said during an earnings call. The Irving, Texas-based oil and gas producer expects to shed the employees on a voluntary and involuntary basis by June 1. Shale firms have pushed U.S. oil output to record levels. But years of heavy spending led to investor pressure to reduce spending and use the cash to pay dividends and repurchase shares. “The big change is to treat capital just as important as production,” Sheffield said. Pioneer’s stock was trading 6.8 percent lower at $145.71 around midday on Tuesday after Sheffield said he did not expect a wave of consolidation in the industry. The stocks of producers focused on the Permian Basin bounced in April when Chevron Corp revealed it had agreed to pay $33 billion for Anadarko Petroleum Corp. Occidental Petroleum Corp then made a $38 billion hostile bid for Anadarko. Pioneer shares traded at $150.92 the day before the Chevron-Anadarko deal, but closed at $168.32 the day it was announced. “I didn’t come back to sell the company,” said Sheffield the company’s founder, who returned as CEO after veteran executive Tim Dove abruptly retired in February. “I personally don’t think that there’s going to be a lot of (mergers and acquisitions) over the next one to two years.” On Monday, Pioneer reported its first-quarter profit jumped to $350 million, or $2.06 per share, from $178 million, or $1.04 per share, a year ago. The company did not say how many executives will leave and did not respond to a request for comment. 

Report: Air quality harmed as Texas oil production booms (AP) — The production of oil and natural gas in West Texas is booming but it’s coming at a cost to residents who are regularly exposed to unhealthy levels of air pollution, according to a report issued by an environmental group. The Environmental Integrity Project noted in a report released Thursday that the Permian Basin, which extends into New Mexico , is one of the most productive hydrocarbon regions in the world. But a consequence of that production is dangerous levels of sulfur dioxide in the air around Odessa and other locations, according to the report, which adds that pollution levels in much of Ector County, where Odessa is located, exceed standards set by the federal Environmental Protection Agency. “Controlling air pollution in West Texas has not been a priority for the state, as evidenced by the scarcity of air pollution monitoring stations in the Permian Basin,” the report said. “And yet, the type of air pollution in the Permian Basin — dominated by excessive emissions of sulfur dioxide and hydrogen sulfide — is known to have serious environmental and public health consequences.” Ilan Levin, associate director of The Environmental Integrity Project, said regulators such as the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality need to have stricter oversight of air pollution permits while penalizing polluters who violate the terms of those permits. “It’s like they’re speeding and the cops out on the beat are not issuing any speeding tickets,” Levin said Wednesday. A spokesman for TCEQ declined to comment, saying the agency hadn’t seen the report.  The report asserts that oil and gas facilities are releasing large amounts of unpermitted pollution during equipment breakdowns, maintenance and other so-called “emission events.” The unauthorized release of air pollution occurs mainly from flaring, which is a way to burn gas that’s released, according to the report, but Levin adds that flaring was meant to be a last resort that instead has “become a business model to get rid of gas that they don’t know what to do with.” There’s only one functioning air monitoring station measuring sulfur dioxide in the Permian Basin, the report said, and more are needed to better police the release of emissions.  Exposure can make breathing difficult and harm a person’s respiratory system. There were at least 30 occasions from December 2016 to April of this year that sulfur dioxide levels measured at one location exceeded federal health standards, according to the report, adding that oil and gas operators in and around Ector County self-reported 2,564 unauthorized releases of air pollution from 2014 to 2017. 

Electric Fracking Could Take Over The Permian -  Shale production in West Texas continues to boom - so much so that shale oil and gas producers in the Permian Basin have more than they know what to do with. As production continues to outpace the expansion of sorely needed pipeline infrastructure, local operators in the Permian are letting approximately 104 billion cubic feet of natural gas go to waste each year by flaring, what is essentially just burning the gas away, instead of putting it on market. For many producers in the Permian, this has led to diminishing profits. One such company is Houston-based oilfield service company Baker Hughes. The company’s first quarter profit also took a nosedive, clocking in at $32 million--less than half of its profits for the same period a year earlier, when Baker Hughes reported a profit of $70 million.  However, despite these dismal numbers, things are looking up for Baker Hughes.   The company is debuting a new, cutting-edge technology that will harness this otherwise wasted gas to power their hydraulic fracturing equipment in the Permian Basin in West Texas. Simonelli announced to investors this week that his company will be forging a new path in fracking by introducing a revolutionary fleet of “electric frack” turbines that will “use excess natural gas from a drilling site to power hydraulic fracturing equipment — reducing flaring, carbon dioxide emissions, people and equipment in remote locations” according to reporting by the Houston Chronicle. During a Tuesday call with investors Simonelli characterized the new strategy as an across-the-board win for their customer base, saying, “We’re solving some of our customers’ toughest challenges such as logistics, power and reducing flare gas emissions with products from our portfolio.” One of these logistical sticking points concerns the high volumes of diesel required to power hydraulic fracking rigs. These new “electric frack” turbines are a good start. The approximately 500 traditional diesel-powered hydraulic fracking fleets scattered across the U.S. and Canada consume about 20 million horsepower of energy altogether according to calculations by Baker Hughes. This means that there is a massive market--about 15 gigawatts--for electricity generated by using the new gas-fired turbines. Instead of adding new carbon emissions these turbines will be powered with gas that is currently being burned off anyway instead of adding diesel emissions on top of the carbon dioxide from those flares. To date, eight of these groundbreaking “electric frack” fleets have been deployed in the Permian Basin, but if they are as successful as Baker Hughes seems to think they will be, we can expect a lot more in a hurry.

US oil and gas rig count falls 13 on the week to 1071: Platts Analytics — US oil and gas rigs fell 13 to 1,071 the week ended May 8, S&P Global Platts Analytics said Thursday, resuming what has generally been a six-month downward trend despite domestic oil prices continuing firmly above $60/b. The rig count drop has fluctuated up and down in recent weeks as upstream operators - many of whom have heavy early-2019 activity programs planned for the year - released a rig after finishing a program or prepared to drill new wells. Last week the rig count gained 18, landing at 1,084 after spending much of April slipping each week. The US rig count peaked in mid-November 2018 at 1,233 and has gradually decreased since then. It dropped below 1,100 in mid-February and since then has generally stayed around the high 1,100s.This week's rig count decrease was for both oil and gas. Oil-directed rigs were down by five to 852, while rigs chasing gas fell by six to 218.In addition, a two-rig decline was posted for rigs not specified for either oil or gas.For specific domestic plays, the biggest weekly drop of nine rigs, to 211, came from the geographic classification "Other" - a category for rigs not listed in any of the other eight large named basins.For named basins, the Utica Shale, sited mostly in Ohio, gained four rigs this week for a total 19. The Denver-Julesburg Basin mostly in Colorado gained two rigs for a total 32, while the Williston Basin of North Dakota and Montana added a rig for a total 62.Two areas lost three rigs apiece: the Haynesville Shale of East Texas and Northwest Louisiana, and the Dry Marcellus Shale, mostly in Pennsylvania. That left the Haynesville with 58 rigs and the Dry Marcellus with 35.The Wet Marcellus, also mostly in Pennsylvania, and also the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico, each lost two rigs. That left the Permian with 462 rigs and the Wet Marcellus with 23 rigs.The SCOOP-STACK play in Oklahoma lost one rig, leaving 86, while the Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas stayed steady at 83 rigs.Also, the number of US permits approved this week fell by 439 compared with a week ago, for a total 549. The biggest single drop came in the "Other" category, down by 501 for a total 166 permits approved. For named plays, the Permian Basin gained the most, up 43 from last week to 204. The Dry Marcellus was up by 24 to 41 while the Wet Marcellus was up 12 to 20.

 Buffett says Occidental Petroleum investment is a bet on oil prices over the long term - Billionaire investor Warren Buffett said Monday that Berkshire Hathaway’s $10 billion investment in Occidental Petroleum is a bet on oil prices over the long term. “It’s also a bet on the fact that the Permian Basin is what it is cracked up to be,” the chairman and CEO Berkshire told CNBC’s Becky Quick. But “oil prices will determine whether almost any oil stock is a good investment over time.” “If [oil] goes way up, you make a lot of money,” he added. Occidental revealed on Tuesday that Berkshire had committed to invest $10 billion in the company to help fund its proposed acquisition of Anadarko Petroleum. Berkshire would make the investment by purchasing 100,000 shares of preferred stock, which pays out an 8% annual dividend. Buffett was willing to invest $20 billion to help Occidental seal the deal, sources told CNBC’s David Faber. Occidental revised its bid to purchase Anadarko after the international oil and gas driller agreed to sell its business to Chevron last month for $65 a share in a 75% stock and 25% cash deal worth $50 billion including debt. Asked why Berkshire wouldn’t just buy Anadarko itself, Buffett said, “That might have happened if Anadarko came to us, but we wouldn’t jump into some other deal that we heard about from somebody else coming to us seeking financing.” Later in the interview, longtime investing partner and vice chairman Charlie Munger responded to the question as well, saying, “Nobody asked us to.”

Occidental inks $8.8 billion deal to sell Anadarko's African oil and gas assets to Total - Occidental Petroleum has reached a deal to sell Anadarko Petroleum’s oil and gas assets in Africa to French oil major Total for $8.8 billion. The agreement is contingent on Occidental first reaching an agreement to buy Anadarko and closing the deal. Occidental is competing with Chevron to acquire Anadarko. The announcement on Sunday offers some clarity on how Occidental would fund its cash-and-stock purchase of Anadarko. Occidental had said it would seek to sell $10 billion to $15 billion worth of assets to underwrite the $38 billion proposed takeover. Occidental said the sale of the Anadarko’s assets in Algeria, Ghana, Mozambique and South Africa to Total would also reduce the challenges of integrating the two drillers. The deal with Total is a binding agreement, and the divestment of the African assets would happen at the same time Occidental closes a deal to purchase Anadarko or shortly after. “Given our long history of working together productively, I am confident we can execute this sale quickly and efficiently,” Occidental CEO Vicki Hollub said in a statement. “Total has extensive experience working in Africa and is well positioned to maximize value from these assets.” The divestment would leave Occidental with Anadarko’s holdings in U.S. shale basins, the Gulf of Mexico and South America, as well as Western Midstream Partners, a fossil fuel transportation and processing company. Occidental is primarily interested in Anadarko’s acreage in the Permian Basin, the top U.S. shale field stretching from western Texas to southeastern New Mexico. Chevron reached a deal to buy Anadarko for $33 billion last month, but Occidental later put in a higher offer. Anadarko’s board of directors is currently considering Occidental’s bid.

Occidental revises bid for Anadarko in buyout battle with Chevron, offers mostly cash - Occidental Petroleum on Sunday put a revised buyout offer in front of Anadarko Petroleum, offering to pay shareholders in mostly cash as it seeks to derail Chevron’s acquisition of the international oil and gas driller. Occidental is still offering to buy Anadarko for $76 a share but would now pay 78% in cash and 22% in stock. The $57 billion transaction was initially structured as a 50-50 cash-and-stock deal when Occidental first made its public bid for Anadarko nearly two weeks ago. Anadarko agreed to sell its business to Chevron last month for $65 a share in a 75% stock and 25% cash deal worth $50 billion including debt. Anadarko’s board of directors resumed negotiations with Occidental last week after determining the rival bid could be superior to Chevron’s offer. Occidental says the revised offer creates immediate value and makes it more certain the deal will close. By offering more cash, Occidental will no longer have to seek approval from shareholders to purchase Anadarko. The risk of Occidental shareholders voting down the purchase created uncertainty that Occidental’s management could bring the buyout over the finish line. “Our revised proposal and merger agreement represents our comprehensive response to all points that your counsel has raised with ours over the course of the past week,” Occidental CEO Vicki Hollub said in a letter to Anadarko’s board of directors. Hollub revealed in the letter that counsel for Anadarko’s board requested three seats on Occidental’s board of directors. Occidental’s new offer does not include that provision because the improved bid does not warrant giving up the three seats, she said. Earlier on Sunday, Occidental announced it had reached a deal to sell Anadarko’s African assets to French oil major Total for $8.8 billion. That would achieve most of Occidental’s goal of divesting $10 billion to $15 billion in assets as part of the buyout. The announcement followed a commitment by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway last week to invest $10 billion in Occidental to help fund the Anadarko buyout. Some investors and analysts, including CNBC’s Jim Cramer, have criticized the sale of preferred stock to Berkshire because it comes with a steep 8% annual dividend.

Oxy Jazzes Up Anadarko Offer, Makes $8B Total Deal - Occidental Petroleum Corporation (Oxy) revealed Sunday that it has jazzed up its offer for Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (APC) and agreed a deal to sell APC’s Africa assets to Total S.A. for $8.8 billion. Oxy has delivered a letter to the board of directors of APC setting forth the terms of a proposal to acquire APC for $76 per share, comprised of $59 in cash and 0.2934 shares of Oxy common stock per share of APC common stock. Oxy’s previous offer was for $76 per share, comprised of $38 in cash and 0.6094 shares of Oxy common stock for each share of APC common stock. The revised proposal has been unanimously approved by the Oxy board of directors and represents a premium of approximately 23.3 percent to the $61.62 per share value of Chevron’s pending offer, Oxy said in a company statement. Oxy added that the increased cash portion of $59 per share provides “significant immediate value, greater closing certainty and enhanced accretion”. In connection with Oxy’s proposal to acquire APC, the company has entered into a binding agreement to sell APC’s Algeria, Ghana, Mozambique and South Africa assets to Total for $8.8 billion. The sale is contingent upon Oxy entering into and completing its proposal to acquire APC and would be expected to close simultaneously “or as soon as reasonably practicable afterwards”, Oxy said. The proceeds of the sale of these assets would cover a portion of the cash consideration to fund the proposed acquisition of APC, according to Oxy. “We firmly believe that Occidental is uniquely positioned to drive significant value and growth from Anadarko’s highly complementary asset portfolio,” Oxy President and CEO, Vicki Hollub, said in a company statement. Commenting on Oxy’s Total deal, Greig Aitken, director of M&A research at Wood Mackenzie, said, “this is a move that will alleviate the concerns of Anadarko’s shareholders”.  “Anadarko’s main concern appears to be uncertainty regarding the execution of the deal. Can Oxy finance the deal, will the bid value erode due to a falling share price, will its shareholders acquiesce?” Aitken added. “Combined with the recent $10 billion Berkshire Hathaway commitment, this disposal has allowed Oxy to increase the cash component of its bid from 50 percent to 76 percent (an increase of approximately $10.5 billion).

Anadarko likely to deem Occidental's buyout offer superior to Chevron's bid on Monday: Sources -  Anadarko Petroleum’s board of directors is likely to determine on Monday that Occidental Petroleum’s buyout offer is superior to the agreement the board reached last month to sell Anadarko to Chevron, sources tell CNBC’s David Faber. The decision would flip the momentum of the bidding war in Occidental’s favor and put pressure on Chevron to sweeten its $33 billion offer. Occidental has taken several steps to outmatch the much larger Chevron since launching its $38 billion rival offer nearly two weeks ago. On Sunday, Occidental revised its bid, offering to purchase Anadarko for 78% cash and 22% stock, compared with its earlier 50-50 cash-and-stock proposal. Increasing the cash component of the deal means Occidental will not have to hold a shareholder vote on the acquisition, making it more certain that the driller could complete the deal. Occidental was able to offer more cash after securing a $10 billion preferred stock investment from Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway. Occidental also inked a deal to sell Anadarko’s African oil and natural gas assets to French oil major Total for $8.8 billion, which would also fund the cash component of the acquisition. If Anadarko’s board does deem Occidental’s bid superior, Chevron will have four days to put another offer on the table. Anadarko would have to pay Chevron a $1 billion breakup fee if its board ultimately chooses Occidental’s offer.

Anadarko to cancel Chevron buyout deal after board deems Occidental's bid superior  - Anadarko Petroleum’s board of directors said on Monday that Occidental Petroleum’s buyout offer is superior to its agreement to sell its business toChevron, putting the deal with the oil giant in jeopardy.The reversal marks the latest twist in a rare bidding war in the oil and gas sector. Chevron now has four days to counter Occidental’s latest bid for Anadarko, an oil and gas driller with prized assets in the U.S. Permian Basin, the Gulf of Mexico and Africa.Shares of Occidental Petroleum were down slightly in after hours trading, while Chevron’s stock price ticked higher. Anadarko’s shares were roughly flat after jumping 3.8% on Monday. Chevron reached an agreement last month to buy Anadarko for $33 billion, or $65 a share. Shortly after, Occidental offered $38 billion, or $76 a share. Occidental on Sunday sweetened its bid by offering to pay mostly cash for Anadarko, after earlier structuring the transaction as a 50-50 cash-and-stock deal. Anadarko’s board of directors on Monday unanimously decided that the revised offer is a “Superior Proposal” under the terms of its agreement with Chevron. The board intends to cancel the deal with Chevron and enter into a definitive agreement to sell its business to Occidental.  According to that agreement, Chevron has the right to put another offer on the table through Friday. Chevron’s merger agreement with Anadarko is structured as 75% stock and 25% cash.  If Chevron does not make a counter offer, or if its revised proposal is rejected, Anadarko must pay Chevron a $1 billion breakup fee.

Chevron walks away from Anadarko Petroleum deal, will collect $1 billion breakup fee - Chevron said Thursday it will not submit a new offer to acquire Anadarko Petroleum, walking away from the deal after Occidental Petroleum pulled ahead in a battle to take control of the driller with prized assets in the top U.S. shale oil field. The decision means Chevron will collect a $1 billion breakup fee, a windfall that it could use to purchase another driller in the Permian Basin, the engine of the American oil drilling boom. Shares of the San Ramon, California-based oil major were up about 3% on Thursday. Anadarko announced on Monday that its board had unanimously decided that Occidental's revised $38 billion bid was superior to a $33 billion Chevron buyout. Anadarko said it intended to break its agreement with Chevron and strike a deal with Occidental if Chevron did not submit a better offer. Occidental, with backing from Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, offered to pay 78% cash and 22% stock for Anadarko, while the Chevron transaction was structured as a 75% stock and 25% cash deal. "Winning in any environment doesn't mean winning at any cost. Cost and capital discipline always matter, and we will not dilute our returns or erode value for our shareholders for the sake of doing a deal," Chevron Chairman and CEO Michael Wirth said in a statement.

Rystad: U.S. Shale Is Now The World’s Second Cheapest Source Of Oil Supply -U.S. shale oil—which just four years ago was the world’s second most expensive oil resource—is now the second cheapest source of new oil supply globally, just behind the giant onshore oil fields in the Middle East, Rystad Energy said on Thursday.North America’s tight oil has reduced costs over the past four-five years and has proven to be a competitive source of oil supply even when oil prices are not very high, according to the energy research firm. Rystad Energy estimates in its latest cost of supply curve update that the averageBrent Crude breakeven price for tight oil is now US$46 a barrel, just four dollars above the average $42 per barrel breakeven oil price for the giant onshore fields in Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries.To compare, in 2015, North America’s shale ranked as the second most expensive resource in Rystad Energy’s global liquids cost curve, with an average breakeven price at $68 per barrel.In 2019, onshore Middle East leads the cheapest source of supply, followed by North American shale, offshore shelf with average breakeven price of $49 a barrel, deepwater with a $58 breakeven price, and Russia onshore with $59 a barrel breakeven. The most expensive source of oil supply is the oil sands, where the average breakeven oil price is $83 a barrel, Rystad Energy’s cost curve analysis shows.  “Tight oil is a short cycle investment with a relatively brief lead time from the sanctioning of new wells to the start of production. This gives E&P companies the flexibility to adapt to market conditions and easily change activity levels,” Espen Erlingsen, Head of Upstream Research at Rystad Energy, said, commenting on the analysis. “In the ever-changing oil price environment, this implies tight oil investment has less uncertainty compared to offshore,” Erlingsen added.   According to the Q1 Dallas Fed Energy Survey, with executives from 82 E&P firms chiming in, average breakeven prices to profitably drill a new well in the U.S.range from $48 to $54 per barrel, depending on the region. Drillers need $50 a barrel on average to profitably drill a new well, down from $52 per barrel when the same question was asked last year. Average breakeven prices in Midland in the Permian were $48, the lowest-cost in the U.S., and the lowest-cost region in the past three years. 

The Shale Boom Is About To Go Bust -- The shale industry faces an uncertain future as drillers try to outrun the treadmill of precipitous well declines. For years, companies have deployed an array of drilling techniques to extract more oil and gas out of their wells, steadily intensifying each stage of the operation. Longer laterals, more water, more frac sand, closer spacing of wells – pushing each of these to their limits, for the most part, led to more production. Higher output allowed the industry to outpace the infamous decline rates from shale wells. In fact, since 2012, average lateral lengths have increased 44 percent to over 7,000 feet and the volume of water used in drilling has surged more than 250 percent, according to a new report for the Post Carbon Institute. Taken together, longer laterals and more prodigious use of water and sand means that a well drilled in 2018 can reach 2.6 times as much reservoir rock as a well drilled in 2012, the report says. That sounds impressive, but the industry may simply be frontloading production. The suite of drilling techniques “have lowered costs and allowed the resource to be extracted with fewer wells, but have not significantly increased the ultimate recoverable resource,”  Technological improvements “don’t change the fundamental characteristics of shale production, they only speed up the boom-to-bust life cycle,” he said.For a while, there was enough acreage to allow for a blistering growth rate, but the boom days eventually have to come to an end. There are already some signs of strain in the shale patch, where intensification of drilling techniques has begun to see diminishing returns. Putting wells too close together can lead to less reservoir pressure, reducing overall production. The industry is only now reckoning with this so-called “parent-child” well interference problem. Also, more water and more sand and longer laterals all have their limits. Last year, major shale gas driller EQT drilled a lateral that exceeded 18,000 feet. The company boasted that it would continue to ratchet up the length to as long as 20,000 feet. But EQT quickly found out that it had problems when it exceeded 15,000 feet. “The decision to drill some of the longest horizontal wells ever in shale rocks turned into a costly misstep costing hundreds of millions of dollars,” the Wall Street Journal reported earlier this year.

Fracking- Earthquakes are triggered well beyond fluid injection zones -- Using data from field experiments and modeling of ground faults, researchers at Tufts University have discovered that the practice of subsurface fluid injection used in 'fracking' and wastewater disposal for oil and gas exploration could cause significant, rapidly spreading earthquake activity beyond the fluid diffusion zone. Deep fluid injections -- greater than one kilometer deep -- are known to be associated with enhanced seismic activity -- often thought to be limited to the areas of fluid diffusion. Yet the study, published today in the journalScience, tests and strongly supports the hypothesis that fluid injections are causing potentially damaging earthquakes further afield by the slow slip of pre-existing fault fracture networks, in domino-like fashion. The results account for the observation that the frequency of human-made earthquakes in some regions of the country surpass natural earthquake hotspots. The study also represents a proof of concept in developing and testing more accurate models of fault behavior using actual experiments in the field. Much of our current understanding about the physics of geological faults is derived from laboratory experiments conducted at sample length scales of a meter or less. However, earthquakes and fault rupture occur over vastly larger scales. Observations of fault rupture at these larger scales are currently made remotely and provide poor estimates of the physical parameters of fault behavior that would be used to develop a model of human-made effects. More recently, the earthquake science community has put resources behind field-scale injection experiments to bridge the scale gap and understand fault behavior in its natural habitat. . The hazard posed by fluid-induced earthquakes is a matter of increasing public concern in the US. The human-made earthquake effect is considered responsible for making Oklahoma -- a very active region of oil and gas exploration -- the most productive seismic region in the country, including California. "It's remarkable that today we have regions of human-made earthquake activity that surpass the level of activity in natural hot spots like southern California," said Robert C. Viesca, associate professor of civil and environmental engineering at Tufts University's School of Engineering, co-author of the study and Bhattacharya's post-doc supervisor. "Our results provide validation for the suspected consequences of injecting fluid deep into the subsurface, and an important tool in assessing the migration and risk of induced earthquakes in future oil and gas exploration."

Fracking can cause earthquakes tens of kilometres away – new research -- Earthquakes threaten to be a show-stopper for fracking. In the Netherlands, the largest gas field in Europe will be shut down by 2030 after sustained damage to homes from earthquakes became too severe. In Oklahoma, US officials have severely curtailed operations after injection of waste water underground caused several earthquakes above magnitude five – one nearly 180,000 times stronger than the 2.3 magnitude earthquake that brought a seven-year pause on fracking in the UK.While operations have since resumed in Britain, the practice still remains a political battleground, with earthquakes at the centre. The UK government’s fracking commissioner, Natascha Engel, recently resigned, claiming that an [unreasonably low] magnitude 0.5 threshold for tolerated earthquakes amounted, in effect, to a ban on fracking.Residents, on the other hand, largely oppose fracking near their homes. Fears of damage to property and the well itself at a fracking location in Lancashire, in the north of England, notably lowered house prices in the area. In the absence of a known mechanism by which fracking could cause earthquakes more than a mile or two from drilling sites, operators have often denied responsibility for such quakes. However, new research has now linked distant earthquakes to fracking, providing evidence that much larger areas surrounding sites may be at risk from drilling operations than previously demonstrated. This is a critical problem not only for fracking, but for cleaner energy solutions too. By design, the breaking of rock that inevitably accompanies both waste water disposal and fracking produces small, usually imperceptible earthquakes.  Occasionally though, the injection of fracking fluid or waste water can cause movements in natural pre-existing geological faults – large cracks that already exist in the rock.   If sufficiently severe, the resulting earthquake can cause damage to houses, threatening local communities. Some of these earthquakes occur very near the fracking site itself, but others have been reported as far as 50 kilometres away, making it difficult to guarantee the safety of surrounding areas.

In “new era” of oil and gas regulation, Colorado communities waste no time writing own rules - Less than three weeks after Gov. Jared Polis signed into law a sweeping billgiving cities and towns in Colorado new powers to regulate oil and gas drilling, communities sitting atop the state’s vast fossil fuel deposits are already looking at how to flex their newfound muscle. Lafayette, just hours after the bill was signed, added another six months to its moratorium on drilling in the city. Broomfield next week will discuss temporarily banning new oil and gas wells while it mulls new rules on the industry. Larimer County is launching an Oil and Gas Regulations Task Force that will meet over the spring and summer to come up with recommendations on how county leaders can move forward imposing limits on an activity that has been at the center of recent public health debates. “I think it’s no-holds barred for communities,” said Joe Salazar, a former state lawmaker from Thornton who heads the anti-fracking group Colorado Rising. “The oil and gas industry has been abusive for a long time and now communities are going to fight back. It’s the dawn of a new era.” That new era began on April 16 when the governor signed into law Senate Bill 19-181, which passed the Democratic-led legislature earlier in the month. The measure transfers much of the state’s authority over oil and gas activity to local governments. It also fundamentally revamps the mission of the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, the main regulatory body over energy extraction in the state, to prioritize public health and safety in permitting decisions and abandon the agency’s traditional role of fostering energy development.

Court delays block Keystone XL pipeline construction in 2019 - Court delays block Keystone XL pipeline construction in 2019 (AP) — An executive for the company proposing the Keystone XL oil pipeline from Canada’s oil sands into the U.S. says it has missed the 2019 construction season due to court delays. TransCanada executive vice president Paul Miller made the statement during a Friday earnings call with analysts. The company also announced it was changing its name to TC Energy Corp. Plans to begin construction of the long-delayed pipeline got blocked last November when a federal judge in Montana ordered additional environmental reviews of the project. President Donald Trump has been trying to push it through. He issued a new permit for Keystone last month. The $8 billion line would carry up to 830,000 barrels (35 million gallons) of crude daily, along a route stretching from Canada to Nebraska.

US says it will complete Keystone environmental review (AP) — U.S. government attorneys say the Trump administration plans to finish a new environmental review of the Keystone XL oil pipeline from Canada even if a federal appeals court throws out a lawsuit that blocked the project. President Donald Trump issued a new permit for the $8 billion pipeline last month. In court filings on Tuesday, government attorneys said it is “undisputed” that Trump’s permit is not subject to two major environmental laws — the National Environmental Policy Act and Endangered Species Act. Nevertheless, the attorneys say the State Department will complete an environmental study ordered by a federal judge in Montana in November. The long-delayed line would carry up to 830,000 barrels (35 million gallons) of crude daily from Canada to Nebraska.

Could "Liking" an Anti-Pipeline Facebook Post Soon Be Illegal? -  A new South Dakota law — written in consultation with the company that owns Keystone XL — could punish people for exercising their right to peaceful protest. Is it a harbinger of things to come? In March, Governor Kristi Noem of South Dakota signed legislation to usher in a new law that has come to be known informally as the Riot Boosting Act: an assault on Americans' right to protest that perversely tries to pass itself off as a good-governance measure. Conceived with the assistance of TC Energy (TransCanada) — the company behind the embattled Keystone XL pipeline — this law would, among other things, authorize the state to sue individuals and groups for protesting projects like Keystone XL, should there be any damages as a result of the protest. The insidious nature of this law becomes obvious on closer inspection. By coining a new term — "riot boosting" — South Dakota creates an atmosphere of vagueness and fear that aims to chill the voices of indigenous people and others who are passionately opposed to projects like Keystone XL. After all, the state already has a law on the books to punish those who might destroy property or put people in danger during a protest.

Tester urges Interior to fight drilling next to Glacier park (AP) — U.S. Sen. Jon Tester is urging the Interior Department to continue its fight against energy development on land in northwestern Montana considered sacred to some Native Americans, after the government dropped a court appeal in the matter. In a letter released Friday, the Democratic lawmaker accused Interior Sec. David Bernhardt of undermining the Blackfeet Nation’s attempts to prevent drilling in the Badger Two-Medicine area. The 10-square-mile (26-square-kilometer) area bordering Glacier National Park is the site of the Blackfeet creation story. Most oil and gas leases in the area, issued decades ago, have since been cancelled by federal officials. But under Bernhardt, officials last month reversed course and dropped the government’s appeal of one of two leases that were still in dispute. Agency officials have declined to explain the move.

80K gallons of produced water spill on Dunn County farm land (AP) — A pipeline spill in Dunn County released nearly 80,000 gallons of produced water and impacted pasture land. North Dakota’s Department of Environmental Quality says the spill is believed to have been caused by workers installing an electrical line. Produced water is a mixture of saltwater and oil that can contain drilling chemicals. Pipeline operator XTO Energy reported the spill 27 miles southwest of Mandaree in late April and on Monday updated the spilled volume to 1,900 barrels. A barrel holds 42 gallons. State officials have inspected the site and are monitoring remediation.

 15,000-gallon brine spill cleaned up in Renville County (AP) — A pipeline spill in Renville County released about 15,000 gallons of saltwater, but it didn’t impact any farmland or waterways.The state Oil and Gas Division says Cobra Oil and Gas Corp. reported Tuesday that 360 barrels of brine spilled Monday at a tank battery about 2 miles north of Sherwood.Brine is a byproduct of oil production. The spill was contained by on-site dikes, and all of the saltwater was recovered. A state inspector visited the site and will monitor any additional cleanup.

Judge sends suit over pipeline back to North Dakota court (AP) — A federal judge has sent back to North Dakota state court a lawsuit alleging the environmental group Greenpeace conspired against the Dakota Access oil pipeline. The two sides had agreed to the move, and U.S. District Judge Daniel Hovland recently signed off on it. Texas-based pipeline developer Energy Transfer Partners maintains Greenpeace and others should be held responsible for trying to disrupt pipeline construction and damage the company’s reputation and finances. Greenpeace accuses ETP of using the legal system to bully critics. Greenpeace had cited federal law dealing with court jurisdiction to try to get the state lawsuit moved to federal court, where the group had already prevailed against racketeering claims alleged by ETP. But ETP disputed Greenpeace’s argument, and the group late last week acknowledged the company was correct.

Sanford: Western North Dakota most likely home for plastics plant-  A company that is exploring the potential of a value-added natural gas project in North Dakota does have western North Dakota on its short list. “It’s the only place they could be,” Lt. Governor Brent Sanford told the Williston Herald on Thursday. “They start looking at things like where do you have underground storage formation, where do you have the gas lines, where are they able to supply the gas, where do they have the most ethane produced.” Between 25,000 and 50,000 barrels per day of ethane are produced at natural gas processing plants in Williams County near Tioga and Williston. Right now, that ethane is being shipped by pipeline to Canada presently, for plastics manufacturing. That’s just the tip of what’s available gas-wise in the state. “We know we have the gas,” Sanford said. “We’re flaring enough gas to power the whole state. The opportunity is here, and our gas is rich in ethane.” The state produced 2.6 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas in February, according to the most recent figures from the North Dakota Division of Oil and Gas. About 20 percent of that was flared or burned off, due to a lack of infrastructure and processing capacity. A petrochemical plant would not only change the dynamic when it comes to flaring for its economy, but for the economy by capturing more of the wealth chain and keeping it in the state. During the last legislative session, lawmakers approved a sales tax exemption for certain natural gas processing facilities, in hopes of attracting a plastics manufacturing plant. Bakken Midstream told lawmakers during deliberations that it is considering a value-added natural gas infrastructure project in North Dakota.

Oregon DEQ denies Jordan Cove LNG water quality permit - The Oregon Department of Environmental Quality on Monday denied a water quality certification for the proposed Jordan Cove liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminal and its feeder pipeline, the Pacific Connector pipeline, though the agency left the door open for the company to reapply.In a letter Monday to the project backers, the agency said “DEQ does not have a reasonable assurance that the construction and authorization of the project will comply with applicable Oregon water quality standards.”DEQ is in charge of administering the federal Clean Water Act in Oregon and the certification is required for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to issue permits for the project.The decision was applauded by opponents of the controversial project, but it is not a deal killer. Jordan Cove can request a contested case hearing within 20 days. DEQ also said it was making its decision “without prejudice,” meaning the company can also resubmit a new application. The agency said it was denying the application because there “is insufficient information to demonstrate compliance with water quality standards, and because the available information shows that some standards are more likely than not to be violated.”Specific concerns included impacts on water quality from construction and operation of the Pacific Connector pipeline. The 36-inch diameter pipe would affect more than 352 bodies of water and traverse mountainous, landslide-prone areas in its 230-mile path from an interstate gas hub in Klamath County to the proposed export terminal in Coos Bay. It would also need a 95-foot right of way across Southern Oregon, a massive path that would require clearcutting timber and building roads -- creating the potential for significant erosion. DEQ also raised concerns about the release of release of drilling materials from the crossing of the Coos Bay estuary.

 As Oregon Sends Jordan Cove LNG Back to Drawing Board, Gulf Coast Projects Press Forward - On Monday, Oregon state regulators dealt a blow to the proposed Jordan Cove Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) project, refusing to issue a state water quality certificate required by the Army Corps of Engineers, citing unresolved concerns about water pollution and the company’s failure to answer information requests from the state in a timely manner. “The state water quality standards are intended to protect people and species from harm, and it’s clear Jordan Cove would cause incredible damage to Oregon’s waterways.”The state decision was made without prejudice, meaning that the company can reapply.Jordan Cove has sought federal permits to daily ship more than 1 billion cubic feet of natural gas, a fossil fuel which can be worse for the climate than coal, according to multiple studies, when burned for electrical power.If built, Jordan Cove would become the largest source of climate-changing greenhouse gas emissions in Oregon, numbers from a recently completed federal environmental review show, releasing 2.14 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalents a year — a huge chunk of Oregon’s total greenhouse gas goal, set at 51 million tons next year and tightening after that.It would take the state’s only remaining coal-fired power plant 15 years to create as much greenhouse gas pollution as Jordan Cove would emit in one year, that analysis found. That coal-fired power plant, the Boardman plant, is slated to close next year, and Portland General Electricannounced in February that it planned to build a 380 megawatt wind, solar, and battery energy facility to power 105,000 homes to partially replace Boardman’s 575 megawatts of power.Nonetheless, driven by a massive glut of gas from the North American shale drilling rush, a massive wave of LNG export projects is underway. Five of the 11 projects FERC currently lists as “proposed” are larger than Jordan Cove, including the 3.6 billion cubic feet (bcf) per day Brownsville project in Brownsville, Texas, and the 3.4 bcf/day Venture Global LNGproject in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, which would each have more than tripled the capacity of the proposed Oregon terminal.In April, FERC announced approval for Tellurian’s Driftwood LNG project in Louisiana — recipient of the largest local tax break in U.S.history, with a capacity of 4 bcf/day — and the Port Arthur Liquefaction Project in Port Arthur, Texas, with a 1.86 bcf/day capacity.   Earlier this month, the Trump administration’s Department of Energy granted Driftwood and Sempra Energy’s Port Arthur project export approvals that would permit their LNG to be sold in Asian countries. And FERCissued a final environmental impact study for a proposed 3.4 bcf/day plant in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, moving that project closer to approval.

Trump Wants To Open Over 1 Million Acres In California To Fracking - On April 25, the Trump administration released details of its plan to open up more than a million acres in California to oil drilling and hydraulic fracturing – including areas close to Sequoia, Kings Canyon and Yosemite National Parks. The plan would end a 5-year moratorium on leasing federal land in the state to oil and gas developers, but it comes at a time when opposition to drilling for fossil fuels in California is growing.The Bureau of Land Management (BLM), which is part of the U.S. Department of the Interior, released the proposal to bring oil and gas extraction to 1,011,470 acres of public and private land in California in its 174-page “Hydraulic Fracturing Draft Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement.”The Trump administration first put forward the idea last year, and it targets land across eight counties in Central California: Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Tulare and Ventura.“The Central Valley has some of the worst air quality in the nation, and we know fracking and drilling make air quality worse,” said Clare Lockwood, a senior attorney at the Center for Biological Diversity.“We will push back every step of the way against this reckless plan to subject more of California’s land, wildlife, and communities to fracking,” emphasized Monica Embrey, a senior campaign representative at the Sierra Club. In 2013, a federal judge ruled that by issuing oil leases in Monterey without examining the environmental dangers posed by fracking, the federal government had violated the National Environmental Policy Act. The ruling was the result of a lawsuit brought by Earthjustice, the Center for Biological Diversity and Los Padres ForestWatch.Three years later, another judge overturned a similar plan for drilling and fracking. Those rulings all happened under Obama, but last year a federal court ordered the Trump administration to stop issuing permits for fracking off the California coast.  Now the Trump administration is reintroducing its 2018 plan to bring fracking to large swaths of land in California.  The opposition to this latest plan is likely to be fierce, as environmental groups get ready to fight back against Trump’s stubborn refusal to accept the promise and popularity of sustainable energy. The president continues to deny the impact of climate change, despite all the evidence to the contrary, and he continues to line the pockets of his Big Oil and Big Gas cronies

Trump's CA fracking plan is 'dangerous,' environmental groups say — The Trump administration’s plan to open up more than 1 million additional acres of public and private land in California to fracking is raising alarm in the environmental community. Environmentalists are challenging the proposal as “dangerous” to humans and iconic national parks nearby, including Yosemite and Sequoia-Kings Canyon National Parks. Last month, the U.S. Bureau of Land Management issued a draft supplemental environmental impact statement on the plan that includes using hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, to extract oil and gas from eight central counties in the state. “The risks posed to our national parks by further oil and gas development, particularly these iconic treasures that helped to inspire the modern-day conservation movement, is saddening to say the least,” Mark Rose, National Parks Conservation Association’s Sierra Nevada field representative, said in a statement. “Yosemite, Sequoia and Kings Canyon already experience some of the worst air quality within the park system, posing unprecedented threats to visitors and the natural resources that call these places home.” Rose further warns that allowing more “fracking near these treasured lands and the more than 1 million acres spanning from the Central Valley to the coast could be disastrous for our national parks, surrounding communities and other public lands.” California now ranks as the seventh largest state in terms of crude oil production, after being in third place until 2016. The state has already issued 121 permits for fracking so far this year, according to the California Department of Conservation. The BLM proposal includes additional oil and gas development in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Tulare and Ventura counties. The agency plans to hold hearings in California on its proposal starting May 21 and indicated the 45-day public comment period ends June 10.

Fringe demand goes mainstream: Stop drilling and mining -- Democrats are embracing a once-fringe demand that could cut emissions at the scale of the Obama administration's biggest climate policies. A growing number of presidential candidates want to lock down the vast fossil fuel deposits sitting beneath federally owned lands and waters. President Obama resisted such calls until the end of his term, when he halted new leases for coal mines and some offshore drilling. Now, White House hopefuls want to go even further on their first day in office. "Keep it in the ground" has transformed from an activist chant into a mainstream campaign promise thanks to a Democratic electorate increasingly attuned to climate change. It also signals a backlash against President Trump's aggressive drilling proposals. "Any candidate that comes through the Low Country, or South Carolina in general, needs to be talking about banning offshore drilling. They need to be talking about protecting our beaches. And if they don't, I can't imagine them having much credibility with our voters," said Rep. Joe Cunningham, a South Carolina Democrat who used the issue to flip a red seat in last year's midterms.Former Texas Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D) last week joined at least four other presidential candidates who are calling for a complete fossil fuel moratorium on public lands and in federal waters.O'Rourke and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren have promised to halt new fossil fuel leasing on their first day in the White House. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders (I) and New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, along with Warren, have co-sponsored the "Keep It in the Ground Act," which would also stop leasing. Washington Gov. Jay Inslee has endorsed that legislation, too, and former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro has said he supports the idea.Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard wrote a bill that would prohibit new federal permits for fossil fuel projects and exploration. Sens. Kamala Harris of California and Cory Booker of New Jersey have co-sponsored legislation that would codify and expand the Obama administration's restrictions on Arctic offshore drilling. And that's not counting the other candidates who have signed on to the Green New Deal, which calls for drastically reducing fossil fuels while protecting public lands and waters, though it doesn't specifically prescribe a moratorium.

House climate panel will study drilling ban backed by 2020 Dems - Rep. Kathy Castor (D-Fla.), chairwoman of the special House committee studying the impacts of climate change, said Friday her panel will examine a proposal by 2020 presidential hopeful Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) to ban new fossil fuel drilling on public lands and waters. A number of other 2020 Democratic candidates — including Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Cory Booker (D-N.J.) and former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) — also have endorsed a moratorium on drilling on public lands. “We’re going to examine that in the Climate Crisis Committee because what the scientists are telling us now is that we’ve got to cut our carbon pollution dramatically,” Castor said during an appearance on C-SPAN’s “Newsmakers” that is set to air later Friday. “If we are going to have a just transition [to clean energy], especially for communities across the country that have a lot of jobs in fossil fuels, it doesn’t make a lot of sense to expand extraction, especially on public lands,” she continued. “It’s an important issue moving forward in the context of how we cut our carbon pollution.” Several liberal lawmakers have argued that the government should ban oil and fossil fuel drilling if it wants to mitigate the effects of climate change. A recent U.S. Geological Survey report found that the extraction and burning of fossil fuels from federal lands accounted for nearly one-quarter of U.S. carbon dioxide emissions between 2005 and 2014. With Democrats taking control of the House last fall, the incoming Speaker, Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), named Castor, a close ally, to lead a new select committee examining climate change. That panel does not have the authority to write legislation, but it is tasked with offering policy recommendations to the full House Democratic Caucus by next year. “That gives us time to take a look at [a ban],” Castor said, “but a lot of the committees now are on the front lines of turning back the damage of what the Trump administration is doing to clean air and clean water.” Castor’s comments came a day after the House passed her bill to block President Trump from pulling the U.S. out of the Paris climate agreement. But the legislation is going nowhere in the Senate, where Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has vowed to be a “Grim Reaper” for what he deemed socialist bills coming out of the House.

Pipeline Bottlenecks Cost Canadian Producers $20 Billion --Canada has plenty of oil, and demand is high, but the Canadian oil industry has nevertheless taken a major hit this year thanks to its persisting pipeline bottleneck. The Albertan oil industry has long been plagued by insufficient pipeline volumes but has not been able to fix the issue with any semblance of efficiency thanks to major bureaucratic and litigation-based delays on building new infrastructure like the long-delayed Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project. With pipeline capacity maxed out, Canadian oil producers have run out of storage space, leading to a major glut in oil reserves with nowhere to go. This has forced Canada to sell their oil at a major discount. In fact, a new study released this week by conservative think tank the Fraser Institute calculates that Canadian oil producers missed out on a whopping $20.62 billion more than they earned this year thanks to their severely depressed prices. Compared to the West Texas Intermediate benchmark, in the last year Canadian heavy crude traded, on average, at a discount of $26.50 U.S. a barrel. This is a huge dive from the five-year preceding, when Canadian heavy crude traded at an average of just $11.90 U.S. a barrel less than West Texas Intermediate.  The pipeline capacity deficit has negatively impacted the Canadian economy in a number of ways. “Canada’s lack of adequate pipeline capacity has imposed a number of costly constraints on the country’s energy sector including overdependence on the US market and reliance on more costly modes of energy transportation,” states the Fraser Research Bulletin. “In 2018, these factors, coupled with the maintenance downtime at refineries in the US Midwest, resulted in significant depressed prices for Canadian heavy crude (Western Canada Select) relative to US crude (West Texas Intermediate) and other international benchmarks.” Fraser Institute went on to say that their calculations also found that if Canadian oil had been able to be transported in volumes corresponding to their current levels of production instead of watching their oil glut balloon and prices drop accordingly, Western Canadian Select would have traded at an average price of $52.90 U.S. a barrel during 2018 instead of the actual average price from last year, which clocked in at just $38.30 a barrel. “In September 2018, western Canadian oil production reached 4.3 million barrels per day but the takeaway capacity on existing pipelines remained constant at around 3.9 million barrels per day,“ the think tank’s report states.

Canada Likely to Greenlight Trans Mountain Expansion -- The Canadian government is likely to proceed with expansion of the Trans Mountain oil pipeline when it announces its final decision on the conduit next month, officials familiar with the matter say. The government has made no secret about its interest in finding a way to expand the line, but has tiptoed around the matter to avoid opening any decision up to legal challenges that have already delayed the project -- and things remain fluid as consultations continue. However, with a June 18 decision approaching, the government is likely to proceed with the expansion, the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the they’re not authorized to speak publicly. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has begun signaling his interest. “The only way to do it is to do it responsibly, and that’s what we’re doing. The need for it, and the national interest, is clear,” he said on April 30. However, to rush ahead without appropriate consultation “would be a guarantee you would continually be bogged down in the courts for the years to come.” The construction of the expansion, which would add 590,000 barrels of daily shipping capacity, would be a boon for Canadian oil drillers that have suffered from a lack of pipeline space that has weighed on local crude prices. That pipeline pinch sent Western Canadian Select crude to a record low of $13.46 a barrel last year, spurring Alberta’s government to order an unprecedented province-wide oil-production cut. Prices have since recovered to around $50.

First Nations seek ‘influence and control’ in pipeline purchase -First Nations seeking an equity stake in the Trans Mountain pipeline and its proposed expansion aren’t just seeking profit, they want “influence and control” over its environmental impact.“As shareholders of this pipeline, we want to be able to appoint a director who will promote Indigenous concerns, who will provide environmental oversight,” said Michael LeBourdais, chair of the Western Indigenous Pipeline Group and chief of the Whispering Pines/Clinton Indian Band.The band had sought an ownership stake during negotiations with Kinder Morgan Canada on a mutual benefits agreement related to an expansion that would triple the capacity of the 60-year-old pipeline. The Trans Mountain pipeline was purchased by the federal government from Kinder Morgan in August of last year for $4.5 billion. Ottawa is expected to approve a $9.3 billion expansion in June after having completed a new round of consultations with First Nations ordered by the court.Several First Nations have expressed interest in buying a stake in the pipeline since the purchase.“We always wanted to buy,” he said. “We always wanted equity. But in our negotiations with Kinder Morgan, equity was not on the table. When the government of Canada bought the pipe it opened the door to equity.” Whispering Pines is one of 43 First Nations in B.C. and Alberta that have signed mutual benefits agreements with Trans Mountain worth about $400 million.But a number of First Nations have opposed the project in court on a legal landscape that is exceptionally complex.While elected band councils have signed agreements with the pipeline proponents, the courts have recognized that hereditary First Nations leaders must also be consulted and accommodated on matters concerning the use of their traditional territories. Last week, Grand Chief Stewart Phillip of the Union of B.C. Indian Chiefs wrote an open letter to B.C. First Nations warning them against investing in the pipeline. “In a world where demand for oil has peaked and is declining, the oilsands, which has higher costs and higher carbon emissions than other sources of oil, will be some of the first oilfields to be shut down,” wrote Phillips.

Burnaby loses yet another Trans Mountain court battle. Is it time to stop? --Another day, another court loss for the City of Burnaby in regards to the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project. On Thursday, the Supreme Court of Canada dismissed the city’s “application for leave to appeal from the judgment of the Federal Court of Appeal” – so much mumbo jumbo – which means the highest court in the land will not hear the city’s appeal. Burnaby was appealing a section of a decision from the appeals court after work on the Trans Mountain was halted in August of 2018. The appeals court cited the National Energy Board’s lack of consideration of the impacts of marine shipping on waters such as Burrard Inlet, as well as inadequate consultation of First Nations. The city was looking for more requirements being imposed on the NEB before the pipeline project could move ahead.Last August, the Supreme Court of Canada dismissed another city appeal – this one was challenging the NEB’s jurisdiction in Burnaby.At the time, that was the 17^th-consecutive court ruling in favour of Trans Mountain against various challengers, according to the Canadian Press. At that point, Trans Mountain was looking like the Harlem Globetrotters and every challenger was the Washington Generals. Then, just days later, came the stunning court decision that has the federal government is still working to satisfy. Currently, the feds have extended the deadline to consult with First Nations about the project. It’s unclear how sincere this consultation is – it could still just be window dressing considering that the feds actually own the pipeline and it would be a political disaster for the federal Liberals if the project doesn’t go ahead.

Shell to Spud Deepwater Mexico Well in December - With investments flowing into Brazil and Mexico, deepwater opportunities abound for the two countries, according to Martin Stauble, Shell’s vice president of exploration for North America and Brazil.“Both countries from a deepwater perspective are certainly exciting hubs to pay attention to,” Stauble said during the Offshore Technology Conference in Houston Tuesday afternoon.Stauble said Shell has successfully added attractive pre-salt acreage into the mix through recent bid rounds. The company plans to spud five pre-salt wells in Brazil in 2019 and 2020. The first one, Alto de Cabo Frio, will spud in September.Drilling plans for Mexico are expected later this year.“Mexico – we didn’t have any position there in deepwater until early last year when we walked away with nine deepwater blocks,” said Stauble. “The first well we expect to get drilled in Mexico will hopefully be in early December.”Shell then plans to spud four or five more wells in 2020.“The main challenge is whether we get all the required regulatory bits and pieces together by December, but we have good collaboration with the [Mexican government],” Stauble said.He added that currently, it can take up to two years to get a permit to spud a well in Mexico. There’s also still difficulty getting seismic permits in Brazil. “I’m very keen on deepwater. I like it. It’s exciting. It has grown. And it is profitable,” he said. “You’re going to see Shell growing in this space with continued investment.”

 Pemex's Dismal Earnings Spark Investor Jitters-- Just as Petroleos Mexicanos’ bonds finally recovered from last year’s rout, a dismal earnings report sent them tumbling back down. Pemex said on April 30 that its oil output declined 12 percent in the first quarter from a year ago, while its refineries operated at just 34 percent of capacity. In the next five days, yields on the company’s bonds maturing in 2027 jumped 31 basis points to 6.539 percent, making them the laggards among Mexican peers in that period. The results are another blow to Pemex, the world’s most indebted oil major with about $106.5 billion in outstanding debt. The government of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has plans to restore the company to its former glory, but struggled to reverse more than a decade of production declines, leaving investors unconvinced. "Pemex’s problems run deep, and international financial markets don’t have faith that it will do what’s needed to solve them,” said Alejandra Leon, Mexico energy analyst at IHS Markit. “We haven’t seen any indication that Pemex has implemented concrete action to reverse production declines, and what was surprising is that the refining business didn’t reflect higher income from combating fuel theft that was part of the rescue package.”

No deaths reported in Mexico pipeline blast - (Reuters) - No deaths were reported after a fuel pipeline exploded in southern Mexico, an emergency services official said on Thursday, adding that a fire triggered by the blast was under control. Mexican state oil firm Pemex is investigating the incident that occurred in one of its pipelines in southern Chiapas state, a company spokesperson said.David Leon, Mexico's head of emergency services, said the pipeline burst late on Wednesday in the Reforma municipality of Chiapas. The fire had yet to be extinguished but was under control, he said.Two incinerated cars were found at the blast site, Reforma mayor Herminio Valdez told Milenio. They were likely being used to transport stolen fuel, he said. In January, at least 117 people died when a Pemex pipeline exploded in the state of Hidalgo shortly after President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador launched a crackdown on rampant fuel theft, ordering pipelines closed in an effort to stamp out criminal activity.

Argentina's YPF shifts focus to shale oil to reverse overall production decline — YPF, the largest oil and natural gas producer in Argentina, is focusing on shale oil for production growth as a glut slows natural gas output, managers at the state-backed company said Friday. The shift is aimed at reversing an expected an up to 3% decline 3% in overall output this year. "We have shifted our focus to accelerating our shale oil developments" in Vaca Muerta, the country's largest shale play, said Sergio Giorgi, YPF's vice president of strategy and business development. Giorgi spoke on a conference call with investors after the company reported late Thursday that its overall hydrocarbon production dropped 11.5% to 486,500 barrels of oil equivalent a day in the first quarter from 549,600 boe/d in the same quarter a year ago, dragged down by a 20.6% plunge in natural gas production to 34.7 million cubic meters a day from 43.7 million cu m/d. Oil production also fell, but only 0.5% to 226,400 b/d from 227,600 b/d, while output of natural gas liquids dropped 11.2% to 41,700 b/d from 47,000 b/d. Despite the decline, Giorgi said YPF is sticking to its earlier target of a 2-3% drop in overall production this year. "It is challenging, but doable," he said. YPF recently started the full-scale development of Bandurria Sur with Schlumberger and La Amarga Chica with Malaysia's Petronas in the oil window, building on its experience in Loma Campana, a partnership with Chevron. Loma Campana was producing most of its net 30,500 b/d of shale oil in Q1, up 63.3% on the year, which helped it increase its total net shale output by 45.1% to 71,100 boe/d in Q1 from 49,000 boe/d, according to the company's latest financial results. To extend the growth, the company is widening its testing in the oil window, now concentrated in the southeast of the play, and building treatment and transport infrastructure, helping to offset declines at its many maturing conventional oil fields around the country. YPF is running six shale oil pilots and expects to go into full-scale development on two of them in 2020 and 2021. It is working with Shell on the Bajada de Anelo block and with a consortium of France's Total, Germany's Wintershall and BP-backed Pan American Energy on the San Roque block. Another pilot is on its 100%-owned Loma La Lata Oeste block, which is next to Loma Campana, while two blocks in the north of the play -- Bajo del Toro with Norway's Equinor and Chihuido with Chevron -- are being tested with the idea of going into full development starting as soon as 2021.

'We are hammering the last nail in the coffin of the fracking industry' - It was always a poisoned chalice, mediating between multinational fracking firms and the local communities dead set against the extreme form of energy extraction in their backyards. Nonetheless, it still shocked many when the government’s “shale commissioner”, the former Labour MP Natascha Engel, resigned at the end of last month after barely six months in the job. The role was impossible, despaired Engel, who lost her seat in North East Derbyshire in 2017 after coming out in favour of fracking in the constituency. The government, she complained, was “choosing to listen to a powerful environmental lobby campaigning against fracking rather than allowing science and evidence to guide our policymaking”.Hurrah, thought Dave Shaw, as the news filtered through to Doncaster. Six years after he co-formed Frack Free South Yorkshire to oppose shale gas extraction on his doorstep, he was joyous. Over the phone in the following days, he said: “I most definitely feel we are winning. I feel like we are hammering the last nail in the coffin of the fracking industry.”Until 2011, hardly anyone in the UK who wasn’t a geologist had heard of fracking, which is the process of creating fractures in shale rock formations to release natural gas trapped inside. Then there was a series of small earthquakes caused by fracking near Blackpool by a firm called Cuadrilla. Concerns began to mount and the government issued a moratorium on fracking. But in December 2012, the government lifted the ban and began issuing exploration licences covering large swathes of the UK, including about 95% of South Yorkshire. Shaw – who is a Labour councillor as well as a builder – has been at the forefront of the fightback. Last week, he was in the final planning stages of one of the best-publicised protests yet, at the Tour de Yorkshire cycle race. Team Sky – the British squad that has won the Tour de France in six of the past seven years – were racing, only they had transformed into Team Ineos, after their new sponsor, a petrochemical and plastic-producing company that holds licences to frack all over Yorkshire. “It gives us an opportunity to highlight what Ineos is doing and talk about the hypocrisy of Team Sky, who rode around last season with whales on the back of their jerseys as part of a campaign against plastic pollution in the oceans and are now being sponsored by [one of] the biggest producers of plastics [in Europe].”

Russia Arrests 4 In Dirty Oil Sabotage Case Which Blocked Major Siberia-Europe Pipeline - For more than two weeks contaminated oil from Russia has clogged the giant Druzhba pipeline, the main delivery line for multiple EU countries, especially impacting Belarus, Poland and Germany. Russia is Germany's largest energy supplier — and with no word on just how long the blockage will last — it is likely to prove financially disastrous as there's an estimated 37 million barrels of contaminated crude accumulating in pipelines spanning from Belarus to Ukraine to Hungary. Far from being a mere technical disaster, Russian authorities had previously revealed the developing "dirty oil" crisis to be intentional — the result of organized crime and an attempt to cover up mass theft on the part of oil executives.  Russia’s Investigative Committee announced Tuesday in a statement that four private oil firm executives have been arrested with two more being sought.They are alleged to have pumped low quality contaminated oil near the Volga River city of Samara “to conceal thefts,” according to the statement. Interfax reported the suspects names as Svetlana Balabay, Rustam Khusnutdinov, Vladimir Zhogolev and Sergei Balandin, all of which will remain in pre-trial detention through June. The charges range from damaging crude oil pipelines and theft, to engaging in organized crime. Russia’s Investigative Committee further said the group was attempting to hide oil theft worth over 1 million rubles (or $15,300). The suspects are associated with the little-known Nefteperevalka, Petroneft Aktiv and Magistral oil firms. It is Nefteperevalka firm which reportedly owns the section of the Druzhba pipeline where investigators think the contamination originated in April. The criminal nature of the crisis was first revealed when a high concentration of organic chloride - which is destructive to refining equipment and typically used by small producers - was discovered in the Russian crude transit, causing engineers to halt service. 

Russia Close to Restoring Oil Flows to Europe- Russia is getting closer to restoring supplies of uncontaminated oil to Europe via both sections of the Druzhba pipeline and the Baltic port of Ust-Luga, the country’s energy minister said. “On May 6, shipments of compliant crude started in the direction of Brody point,” in Ukraine, from where they can reach European consumers, Energy Minister Alexander Novak said at a government meeting Tuesday. “In the near future, we expect an agreement to start shipments in the direction of Poland,” he said. Ust-Luga will receive the first batches of clean oil Wednesday morning, according to Novak. That’s a slower timetable than Russia previously indicated. Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak pledged on April 27 that the nation will fully restore normal supplies through the pipeline within two weeks, but Novak now says that should happen in the second half of May. Belarus has estimated it may take “months of hard work” to do so. The Russian authorities also have yet to offer a comprehensive solution for removing all contaminated oil from the system. Poland and Ukraine are transit countries for the northern and the southern link of the Druzhba pipeline, respectively, and the resumption of the flows would mark a gradual return to normal operation after the outage which has lasted more than a week. Ust-Luga is the key sea gateway for Russia oil supplies to Europe, and contamination issues at the port risked choking off exports to the continent. Refineries in some east European countries refused to accept oil from the Soviet-era pipeline after Belarus, another transit country for Druzhba, reported an extremely high level of organic chlorides in the shipped volumes. Russia later confirmed contamination of its batches with the organic compounds that can severely damage refinery equipment. Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak pledged on April 27 the nation will restore the supplies within two weeks, while Belarus estimated it may take “months of hard work” to fully resume flows. Russia’s crude oil output and exports have not been affected by the Druzhba halt, Novak said. The nation produced 11.233 million barrels a day of crude in April, according to Bloomberg calculations based on data from the Energy Ministry’s CDU-TEK unit.

Cyprus gas discoveries spark US-Russian gamesmanship - In recent years, energy companies have discovered a number of significant gas reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean, and the rush to develop the offshore resources is reshaping the region's political and economic dynamics. Earlier this year, ExxonMobil, together with Qatar Petroleum, found the third large gas reservoir off the coast of Cyprus. Known as the Glaucus-1 field, this latest discovery will add to the inventory of Eastern Mediterranean gas reservoirs coming online in neighboring Israeli and Egyptian territorial waters, which are expected to form a new energy hub for regional and, possibly, export markets.At the same time, officials in Washington are increasingly expressing support for cooperation between Israel, Cyprus and Greece in developing the reserves as a measure to counter both growing Russian influence in the Eastern Mediterranean, and also Turkish hostility towards gas development in Cyprus' territorial waters, where both have claims to energy resources. The move signifies the return of direct US involvement in a region, where it has been largely absent in recent years as Russia strengthened its positions on the Syrian coast. Some officials in Washington and Europe also see the development of Eastern Mediterranean gas fields as a potential alternative energy source to Russian gas imports, through what is being called the East Med pipeline, which would run from Israel and Egypt through Cyprus, Greece and then onward to Italian and European markets. "The US is finding Greece, and by extension Cyprus and certainly Israel, as the allies it needs if it's going to consolidate itself in the East Med," Harry Tzimitras, director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo Cyprus Center, told DW. In a show of support, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met with Israeli, Greek and Cypriot leaders in March to discuss regional energy development and joint security initiatives. In April, US Senators Bob Menendez and Marco Rubio introduced the Eastern Mediterranean Security and Partnership Act, which would lift a decades-old arms embargo on Cyprus, as well as establish a "United States-Eastern Mediterranean Energy Center to facilitate energy cooperation between the US, Israel, Greece, and Cyprus."The legislation is one of two bills introduced in the US Congress this year aiming to stop the transfer of the NATO coalition F-35 warplanes to Turkey, until officials in Ankara end negotiations to purchase the Russian S-400 missile defense system, which US officials say pose a threat to NATO defenses in Turkey, a NATO member.

U.S. and EU concerned by Turkey's plans to drill off Cyprus (Reuters) - The United States and European Union have expressed deep concern over Turkey’s plans for offshore drilling operations in an area claimed by Cyprus as its exclusive economic zone, adding to tensions between Ankara and its Western allies. The statements at the weekend came after Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said “we are starting drilling” in the region. Turkey and the internationally recognized Greek Cypriot government have overlapping claims of jurisdiction for offshore oil and gas research in the eastern Mediterranean, a region thought to be rich in natural gas. “The United States is deeply concerned by Turkey’s announced intentions to begin offshore drilling operations in an area claimed by the Republic of Cyprus as its Exclusive Economic Zone,” State Department spokesperson Morgan Ortagus said on Sunday. “This step is highly provocative and risks raising tensions in the region. We urge Turkish authorities to halt these operations and encourage all parties to act with restraint.” Cavusoglu said that Turkish seismic research vessel Barbaros Hayrettin Pasa was continuing work in the region. “We will conduct drilling in areas of Turkey’s continental shelf and we are starting our drilling work at points identified by Barbaros Hayrettin Pasa,” he said in northern Cyprus on Saturday. The Cyprus foreign ministry said it “strongly condemns” Turkey’s drilling operations within its exclusive economic zone. “This provocative action by Turkey constitutes a flagrant violation of the sovereign rights of the Republic of Cyprus,” it said on Saturday. Speaking at NATO’s North Atlantic Council Mediterranean Dialogue meeting in Ankara on Monday, President Tayyip Erdogan said he expected NATO to support Turkey’s rights in the Mediterranean. “The legitimate rights of Turkey and the Northern Cypriot Turks over energy resources in the eastern Mediterranean are not open for argument. Our country is determined to defend its rights and those of Cypriot Turks,” he said. “We expect NATO to respect Turkey’s rights in this process and support us in preventing tensions.” The U.S. statement followed similarly worded comments on Saturday by EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini, who expressed “grave concern” about Turkey’s intentions.

Agri SA launches court proceedings against granting of shale gas exploration rights - Agricultural organisation Agri SA has launched court proceedings in the Pretoria High Court against the granting of environmental authorisations and explorations rights for shale gas to Africa-focused oil and gas exploration and development company Rhino Oil and Gas. Although the authorized exploration activities by Rhino Oil and Gas will not entail actual drilling, the current legal dispensation in relation to oil and gas in South Africa affords holders of exploration rights the exclusive and automatic entitlement to apply for and be granted full-scale production rights, Agri SA said in a statement this week. In effect, the organisation explained that this means that entities such as Agri SA, must then resort to the courts from the outset to prevent hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, for shale gas from taking root in South Africa. “In the absence of satisfactory information about the availability and treatment of water to sustain a fracking and shale gas industry in South Africa, Agri SA cannot support government’s apparent appetite for a full-scale gas industry in this country,” Agri SA natural resources head Janse Rabie said. He lamented that, in the eyes of Agri SA, government is not cautious enough when it comes to shale gas, especially considering that South Africa is already a highly water-stressed country. Additionally, the statement noted that aerial and seismic survey techniques are not entirely non-invasive. Privacy issues and the effects of the surveys being conducted in areas used for traditional religious and customary purposes, stand to be materially affected and do not appear to have been considered in the granting of the authorisations in this instance, Agri SA noted. In 2018 Rhino Oil and Gas obtained environmental authorisation to conduct aerial exploration activities for petroleum over large parts of the North West, Free State, KwaZulu-Natal and Eastern Cape provinces. In January, the Petroleum Agency of South Africa granted exploration rights to Rhino Oil and Gas with respect to its North West, Free State and Eastern Cape exploration areas.

Solomon Islands to refloat ship after oil spill - Since early February, bulk carrier, Solomon Trader, has been wedged on a reef off Rennell Island, where it has spilled an estimated 100 tonnes of oil. The spill happened near a protected marine area and poisoned local water supplies and fishing grounds, sparking an international outcry. More than three months on, the Solomon Islands Disaster Management Office said the vessel will be refloated and towed from the reef. Its director, Loti Yates, said the process, which is being led by a salvager contracted by the shipowner's insurer, will take around three days. "It is a huge and very, very difficult operation," he said. Mr Yates added that cleanup efforts which began in March are ongoing, with oil still coating the shoreline of the nearby and once pristine Kangava Bay. He added that all oil onboard the ship had been removed but based on ship records there was an unknown amount missing. "Maybe they evaporated, maybe they just sailed away or sunk into the bottom of the ocean. Not sure yet." Mr Yates said investigations by the Solomon Islands government into the disaster had been obstructed by a missing data drive taken from the ship by its owner. He said requests for the data - which is too big to transfer online - to be sent physically had gone unanswered for the past three weeks. 

Majors Driving Rise in Global Discoveries - Oil and gas exploration is off to an explosive start in 2019, with such majors as BP, Eni and Exxon Mobil taking a bigger bite of the conventional resources discovered in the first quarter, according to a new report by Norwegian research firm Rystad Energy. At the end of the first quarter global discoveries of conventional resources reached 3.2 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe). Most of the gains were recorded in February, announcing some 2.2 billion barrels of newly discovered resources – the best monthly total on record since August 2015. The six largest discoveries by the oil majors each exceeded 150 million boe, and the top three could even hold more than 300 million boe apiece. American major ExxonMobil was the most successful, with three significant offshore discoveries accounting for over 38 percent of total discovered volumes in the first quarter of 2019. With discoveries made offshore of Cyprus with 700 million barrels of oil equivalent in the Eastern Mediterranean and off of Guyana in South America with more than 5 billion oil-equivalent barrels. Apart from Exxon Mobil, the other top discoveries were made by Paris-based oil major Total, with its Brulpadda find estimated to have a potential 1 billion barrels of "wet" gas off the coast of South Africa. Spanish-based Repsol's South Sumatran seas find has preliminary estimates of at least 2 trillian cubic feet of recoverable resources, making it the largest such find in Indonesia for 18 years. And in Britain’s North Sea China’s CNOOC, in a partnership with Total, made an offshore find equivalent to 250 million barrels of oil.

Saudi Aramco to Provide Extra Oil to Asian Buyers-- Saudi Arabia is set to supply more crude to oil-starved Asian refiners, and extract a heavy price for it. State-run producer Saudi Aramco will sell additional cargoes to customers in the world’s biggest oil-consuming region for June loading, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The shipments will be on top of those scheduled under long-term crude contracts, they said, asking not to be identified because the information is confidential. While the extra supplies will alleviate a squeeze driven by U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela as well as unexpected disruptions from Russia to Nigeria, the refiners face a costly bill. Aramco raised its official selling price for June cargoes of its flagship Arab Light crude to the biggest premium to Middle East benchmark prices in 11 months. The cost of the Arab Medium variety was set at highest since December 2013, while Arab Heavy was increased to the most in over six years. The higher costs aren’t expected to deter Asian buyers, who had earlier this month asked OPEC’s biggest producer for additional supplies even before the kingdom set its pricing for June cargoes. The scramble for shipments follows the May 2 expiry of U.S. sanctions waivers for buyers of Iranian oil, which the White House decided not to renew as part of its campaign to squeeze Tehran’s finances. Global benchmark Brent crude fell as much as 1.1 percent a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange and traded down 67 cents at $70.57 at 11:10 a.m. in London. Prices slipped 1.8 percent last week, after gaining in the previous five weeks. Refiners in India, where oil demand is growing at the fastest pace in the world, are set to receive as much as 200,000 barrels a day of incremental supplies, the people said. Some refiners in China, the top crude importer, and Japan will also receive additional shipments, they said. Aramco was willing to supply more volumes to meet the requests of a major Chinese refiner, said a person familiar with the company’s procurement, although details on the type and quality of oil on offer remained unclear. The press office for Aramco, known officially as Saudi Arabian Oil Co., couldn’t immediately comment.

China Invests In Game-Changing Arctic LNG Project - Russia’s second largest natural gas producer, independent player Novatek, has signed up key participation from two state-owned Chinese oil majors in its massive Arctic LNG 2 project. The deals were inked last week at the Second Belt and Road Forum for International Co-operationheld in China. This cements Novatek’s position as Russia’s leading liquefied natural gas (LNG) developer, moving it a step ahead of the country’s two state-backed companies, Rosneft and Gazprom. China National Offshore Oil Corp. (CNOOC) and China National Oil and Gas Development Co. (CNODC), a unit of China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC), signed up to acquire 10 percent each in the project. CNOOC is also China’s largest offshore oil and gas producer and developer. Novatek’s chairman, Leonid Mikhelson, welcomed CNOOC’s involvement, saying China was “one of the key consuming markets for our LNG sales.” He added that Arctic LNG 2 would be a “game-changer” in the global gas market and noted the company’s experience from its Yamal LNG project as a demonstration of its ability to carry out operations in the Arctic. The entry of the CNPC unit, meanwhile, was described by Mikhelson as an “important milestone” for Arctic LNG 2, while he noted the Chinese company’s participation in Yamal LNG. “The accumulated experience of working together is a solid basis for the successful implementation of our new LNG project,” he said. No details have been given yet for the price the Chinese companies paid. French oil major Total also invested in Arctic LNG 2 in March. Novatek, in its first-quarter results, said the sale of a 10 percent stake in the project had resulted in a net gain of $4.8 billion. China was instrumental in making the Yamal LNG work. In addition to the participation of CNPC, which acquired a 20 percent stake in 2013, the Silk Road Fund (SRF) purchased a 9.9 percent stake for $1.21 billion in March 2016. SRF also provided a 15-year loan worth some $813 million. Additionally, CNPC signed up to a 20-year off-take agreement, covering 3 million tons per annum (mtpa) of Yamal LNG’s production, indexed to the Japanese Crude Cocktail (JCC) price, the leading LNG pricing benchmark in Asia.

China Set To Defy U.S. Sanctions On Iran - Tensions between Washington and Beijing could soon peak if China positions itself to defy President Trump’s repeal of Iranian oil sanctions waivers. On Saturday,noted Chinese analysts said that China might not submit to U.S. sanctions pressure over its Iranian oil imports because Iran is a key investor in China’s Belt and Road Initiative as well as a key energy partner.Two weeks ago, the Trump Administration surprised both domestic and international energy markets players and watchers when it refused to extend 180-day waivers for Iranian oil first put in place in November. Washington also said it would place sanctions on any country that continues to buy Iranian oil after May 2. Japan, China, India, South Korea, Taiwan, Italy, Greece, and Turkey - all of Iran’s biggest oil clients - were initially granted 180-day waivers. As a result of the U.S. move, London-traded, global oil benchmark Brent crude breached the psychologically important $75 per barrel price point. Since then, Brent has pared those gains by nearly $5 per barrel amid a host of factors, including a jump in U.S. crude inventories to their highest level since September 2017 as well as U.S. production hitting a record 12.3 million barrels per day (bpd), cementing its top global oil producer slot ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia. Brent ended the trading session on Friday at just under $71 per barrel, while U.S. oil benchmark, NYMEX-traded West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) futures ended the session at $61.94 per barrel, up 13 cents, but losing nearly 3 percent for the week, its second consecutive week of declines.  According to a report in the Beijing-based Global Times, experts in the country also said that China’s energy security wouldn’t be affected too much by the removal of oil sanctions waivers due to diversification of supply, while the issue could even offer Beijing a new bargaining chip in ongoing trade negotiations with Washington as both sides try to reach an agreement to end nearly a year of tit-for-tat trade tariffs. It should be noted that the Global Times is known for expressing hawkish views, sometimes in adherence with the official Chinese Communist Party (CCP) line and sometimes not. 

Iran’s Master Plan To Beat U.S. Sanctions  -One key foreign policy goal of the current U.S. government is to initiate regime change in Iran by crippling its economy to such a degree that popular unrest removes the current power structures in the country, particularly the near-omnipresent IRGC. To this end, the past few weeks have seen the U.S. end all waivers on importing oil from Iran, designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a foreign terrorist organisation, and sanction 14 individuals and 17 entities linked to Iran’s shadowy Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research. All of this followed the U.S.’s momentous withdrawal last May from the Iran nuclear deal. The IRGC believes that its only chance of avoiding this fate is to widen the existing divisions between the U.S. and the European Union (EU) so that it can generate export revenues from Europe, in addition to those it can rely on from the historically sanctions-busting states of Asia. Consequently, the IRGC has come up with a last-ditch strategy to do achieve this, a senior source who works closely with Iran’s Petroleum Ministry exclusively told OilPrice.com earlier this week. The EU has always been of the opinion that Iran has never broken the terms of the nuclear deal – a view also taken by the CIA, incidentally. At the time of U.S. President Donald Trump’s initial criticism of the nuclear deal last January, the EU’s foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, stated: “This is not a bilateral agreement,... so it is clearly not in the hands of any president of any country in the world to terminate [it],...The president of the United States has many powers, but not this one.” After the U.S. withdrew from the deal last May, the EU invoked the ‘Blocking Statute’ that effectively bans European companies from following the U.S.’s sanctions on Iran. Concomitant with this, Mogherini said that Brussels would not let the nuclear deal with Tehran die, adding that: “We are encouraging small and medium enterprises in particular to increase business with and in Iran as part of something that for us is a security priority.”

Europe Vows To Continue Buying Iranian Oil As US Revokes Export Waivers - As if to mark one year since President Trump formally withdrew from the JCPOA - better known as the "Iran Deal" - last May, the foreign ministers of the UK, France and Germany, as well as EU foreign policy head Federica Mogherini, on Saturday issued a statement condemning the White House's decision, and vowing once again to abide by the terms of the deal. The statement is the latest sign that Trump's decision to reimpose sanctions on Iranian oil exports could set up the US for a showdown with its allies in Europe that could accelerate the de-dollarization of the global financial system, as Europe continues to work on an alternative payments system to the Treasury-dominated SWIFT network. "We, the High Representative of the European Union and the Foreign Ministers of France, Germany and the United Kingdom, take note with regret and concern of the decision by the United States not to extend waivers with regards to trade in oil with Iran," the European guarantors of the nuclear deal, called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, Politico reports.The US turned the screws on Iran last week by cancelling all of the waivers on Iranian crude exports it had issued after reimposing sanctions back in November - effectively leaving $1 billion in Iranian crude stranded outside a Chinese port - while also cancelling two of the seven waivers granted to businesses working with Iran's civilian nuclear program.Despite the US's decision to brand Iran’s revolutionary guard as a "terrorist organization," the Europeans continued to "encourage all countries" to make their "best efforts" to engage in legitimate trade with Iran.It's also possible that the Europeans' statement was intended to calm global oil markets, as the US's decision to crack down on remaining Iranian oil  exports, combined with the turmoil in Venezuela and Libya, could send oil prices higher (though the Trump administration has sought to offset this by recruiting Iran's regional rivals to increase their output). The rising tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia have prompted Iran to warn that the collapse of OPEC could be imminent (should that happen, it's very likely that a new organization led by Saudi Arabia and Russia could emerge in its place). And in any case, Iran has vowed to continue exporting its oil in defiance of the Americans' wishes.

Iranian Oil Shipments Slide Under US Sanctions -  Iran’s oil shipments tumbled this month after the U.S. ended sanctions waivers that allowed eight governments to buy from the Persian Gulf country. So far, not a single ship has been seen leaving Iran’s oil terminals for foreign ports in tanker tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. China, India, South Korea and Japan were among those allowed to buy about 1 million barrels a day of Iranian crude and condensate, a light form of oil extracted from gas fields, until May 2. Hopes that those exemptions might be extended were dashed, leaving buyers at risk of U.S. penalties if they continued to take Iran’s oil. They seem not to have taken that chance. China, South Korea and Japan had already taken a cautious approach to the end of waivers, cutting their purchases of Iran’s oil in April. The long voyages from the Persian Gulf to northeast Asia, taking as much as a month, meant that oil lifted from Iranian terminals in April would not arrive until after the waivers had expired, leaving buyers at risk of reprisals. Iran’s oil ministry, National Iranian Oil Co. and National Iranian Tanker Co. declined to comment. The much shorter voyages to India meant that refiners there could keep buying Iranian oil until well into April and still see it arrive before May 2. As a result, the volume of crude seen leaving Iran for India in April was the most in seven months, at 400,000 barrels a day. While tanker tracking provides a valuable indication of shipments, it does have limitations. Ships’ captains can turn off the transponders that signal their vessel’s position, hiding them from view. While this tactic has been employed by Iran since November, ships have usually reappeared several days after leaving the Persian Gulf, or when passing choke points such as the Suez Canal or Singapore. As of May 9, there were four Iranian tankers anchored off China, capable of holding a combined 5 million barrels, with another supertanker on its way. Two more very large crude carriers, each able to haul two million barrels, were observed at Indian ports waiting to discharge the last cargoes loaded in April. Most of the rest of the Iranian tanker fleet is either heading back toward the Persian Gulf after discharging cargoes, or have been observed in or near the region in the past two days. There are some Iranian tankers that may still be hauling cargoes. No tracking signals have been received from 10 VLCCs for at least 16 days.  It is also possible that non-Iranian vessels could be picking up cargoes with their transponders turned off.

Oil prices correct lower on hedge fund sales: Kemp - (Reuters) - Hedge fund managers have started to increase their bearish oil positions for the first time since the start of the year, amid signs the previous bull run had become overextended and prices were ripe for a correction. Hedge funds and other money managers were net sellers of the six major petroleum futures and options contracts in the week to April 30, bringing to an end a record-breaking 15-week run of net purchases. Portfolio managers cut their net long position by 17 million barrels last week, after having raised it by a total of 609 million since Jan. 8 (https://tmsnrt.rs/2LpJ0Ek ). Funds were net sellers last week of NYMEX and ICE WTI (-19 million barrels), U.S. heating oil (-2 million barrels) and European gasoil (-8 million barrels). Net sales were only partially offset by small purchases of Brent crude (+8 million barrels) and U.S. gasoline (+3 million), according to position records published by regulators and exchanges. Before the sales, positions in crude and especially gasoline had started to look very lopsided, increasing the probability fund managers would reduce some of their length and reverse the recent bullish price trend. Fund long positions outnumbered short ones by a margin of 35:1 in gasoline, 11:1 in crude and 3:1 in middle distillates on April 23. Following last week’s sales, the long-short ratios have been trimmed slightly to 28:1 in gasoline, 9:1 in crude and 2:1 in middle distillates. From a fundamental perspective, spot oil prices and calendar spreads appear poised to rise further, provided the global economy avoids a recession. Fund managers are betting U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela combined with output restraint by Saudi Arabia will cause the crude market to tighten significantly in the second half of 2019. They are also anticipating that U.S. refineries will process record amounts of crude to stabilise gasoline inventories this summer and then build distillates stocks before new maritime fuel rules at the end of the year. Record crude processing should tighten the global oil market even further in the remainder of the year, which is showing up in a big backwardation in crude futures prices. Brent's calendar spread for July to December has climbed to a backwardation of more than $2.80 per barrel, up from $1.80 a month ago, and a small contango at the start of the year. From a positioning perspective, however, hedge fund managers are already heavily committed to the bullish narrative. With so much speculative money riding on a further rise in prices, and few short positions left to squeeze, oil prices had become increasingly vulnerable to a correction.

Oil bounces up on Iran concern after touching one-month low on trade tensions (Reuters) - Oil futures edged higher in volatile trade on Monday as rising tensions between the United States and Iran buoyed prices after they touched a one-month low following U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat that he may raise tariffs on Chinese goods. Brent crude futures rose 39 cents to settle at $71.24 a barrel. The global benchmark earlier sank to $68.79 a barrel, its lowest since April 2. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 31 cents to settle at $62.25 a barrel. WTI’s session low was $60.04 a barrel, the weakest since March 29. Additional buying was sparked after WTI broke through $62 a barrel in early afternoon trade, said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho in New York. The United States is deploying a carrier strike group and a bomber task force to the Middle East to send a clear message to Iran that any attack on U.S. interests or its allies will be met with “unrelenting force,” U.S. national security adviser John Bolton said on Sunday. The development injected a risk premium into the market. Acting U.S. Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan said he had approved sending the carrier strike group and bombers to the Middle East because of a “credible threat by Iranian regime forces.” “You’re seeing those increasing geopolitical tensions,” Prices fell early after Trump said on Twitter on Sunday that tariffs on $200 billion of goods would increase on Friday to 25 percent, reversing his February decision to keep them at 10 percent due to progress in trade talks. Trump early on Monday appeared to defend his Sunday statement, citing the trade deficit between the United States and China. “Sorry, we’re not going to be doing that anymore!” he tweeted. The comments worried investors about trade talk progress between the world’s two largest economies and ignited concerns that ongoing tensions could hurt global oil demand. China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang told a news briefing on Monday that a Chinese delegation was still preparing to go to the United States for trade talks. “We are also in the process of understanding the relevant situation,” he said.

Global Markets In Tailspin After Trump Reignites Trade War --Oil prices sank on Monday morning after President Trump decided to reignite the trade war with China just before it was supposed to be resolved.Trump took to twitter to announce a major escalation in the trade fight, apparently in a bid to make China buckle under the pressure. Seemingly out of nowhere, after weeks of encouraging press coverage that seemed to suggest the two sides were zeroing in on a deal, Trump said that he would hike tariffs by the end of the week, blaming China for dragging its feet. The tweet sent global financial markets into a tailspin, not least because it caught everyone off guard. The Shanghai Composite Index fell more than 5 percent on Monday while the Stoxx Europe 600 fell by 1.5 percent. Trump says that U.S. tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods will jump from 10 to 25 percent by the end of this week. He also said new tariffs would go up on an additional $325 billion worth of goods. That tranche of goods, to be hit with tariffs “shortly,” would see levies at a rate of 25 percent.The question now is how Beijing will respond. China’s vice premier Liu He was about to travel to the U.S. in what the world had widely thought would be the final sprint to a trade deal. As of Monday, a Chinese spokesman said that a trade delegation would still make the trip, although exactly who would show up was unclear. President Trump seems to be emboldened by a series of strong jobs reports in the U.S., while China’s economy has already begun to slow.Related: Nigeria Shuts In More Oil After Protests In Niger DeltaIt is unclear if Trump will follow through on the threat. In various fights over the last two years, one of his negotiating tactics is to issue over-the-top threats in an effort to browbeat his counterpart into making concessions. Often he secures a minor or even a cosmetic concession, he declares victory and scraps his threat (see: North Korea).

US crude rises 31 cents, settling at $62.25, after tumbling on Trump's tariff threat - Oil futures edged higher in volatile trade on Monday as rising tensions between the United States and Iran buoyed prices, which earlier touched a one-month low after U.S. President Donald Trump said he may raise tariffs on Chinese goods. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled 31 cents higher at $62.25 per barrel on Monday. WTI hit $60.04 earlier in the session, its lowest since March 29. Brent crude futures rose 39 cents to $71.24 per barrel, after earlier hitting its lowest since April 2 at $68.79. Additional buying was sparked after WTI broke through $62 a barrel in early afternoon trade, said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho in New York. Injecting risk premium into the market, the United States is deploying a carrier strike group and a bomber task force to the Middle East to send a clear message to Iran that any attack on U.S. interests or its allies will be met with “unrelenting force,” U.S. national security adviser John Bolton said on Sunday. “You’re seeing those increasing geopolitical tensions,” said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. The deployment comes after the Trump administration tightened energy sanctions on Iran last week in a bid to drive the Islamic Republic’s oil exports to zero. The U.S. stopped issuing sanctions waivers that allow some of Iran’s biggest customers to import limited amounts of Iranian crude oil. Elsewhere, top oil exporter Saudi Arabia raised its crude oil prices for June to its Asian and European customers, and cut prices to the United States, a signal that Riyadh is in no hurry to boost oil supply ahead of an OPEC meeting next month.

         Saudi Exports Send Oil Prices Falling – Oil prices seesawed at the start of the week, falling initially on Monday after President Trump reignited the trade war, only to rebound on fears of rising U.S.-Iran tensions. Oil dropped sharply again in early trading on Tuesday, following news that Saudi Arabia would send more oil to Asia.   The oil markets are on edge after Trumpissued a threat to hike tariffs at the end of this week. He blamed China for slow-walking trade talks, and said that the 10 percent tariffs on $250 billion worth of goods would rise to 25 percent, while a 25 percent tariff on a further $350 billion worth of goods would also go into effect.   Iran will restart parts of its nuclear program in response to relentless pressure from the U.S. and the Trump administration’s own withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear accord. President Hassan Rouhani said that Iran would reduce some of its “minor and general” commitments. Iran also said it would take “reciprocal actions” to the U.S. withdrawal from the agreement. The development comes shortly after the U.S. sent warships to the region as a “message” to Iran.  . Oil fell after Saudi Arabiasaid that it would increase shipments to Asia to offset declines from Iran. Sources told Bloomberg that India may see an additional 200,000 bpd from Saudi Arabia.  . Oil facilities in Nigeria’s Nembe region have been temporarily shut down due to protests. Leaks along the Nembe Creek Trunkline, one of two major pipelines for Bonny light, had previously forced a shut down. The latest outage will keep Bonny light under force majeure.  In an effort to beat out Chevron in its pursuit for Anadarko Petroleum, Occidental Petroleum  sweetened its offer by offering more cash instead of stock. The revised offer of $76 per share will breakdown to $59-per-share in cash. That offer comes on top of the promise by Berkshire Hathaway to invest $10 billion into the combined company, as well as the agreement between Occidental and Total SA for the French oil company to buy up Anadarko’s African assets for $8.8 billion. On Monday, Anadarko said it was convinced, and announced that the Occidental offer was the “superior proposal.” It is unclear if Chevron will up the ante.  The IEA said that investment in renewables stagnated last year. “After nearly two decades of strong annual growth, renewables around the world added as much net capacity in 2018 as they did in 2017, an unexpected flattening of growth trends that raises concerns about meeting long-term climate goals,” the IEA wrote. Last year, the world added 180 GW of renewable energy, the same increase as the year before and the first time since 2001 that net capacity additions did not expand year-on-year. The IEA said that level of growth is only about 60 percent of what is needed for the world to hit its climate targets in the long run.

Oil drops 1.4% to 5-week low, settling at $61.40, as US-China trade war intensifies -Oil prices tumbled on Tuesday as renewed doubts over U.S.-China trade talks stoked concerns over global growth, but U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela tightened supply and helped to stem losses. U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday said he would raise tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods from 10-25% by Friday. The comments dragged on both Asian and U.S. stock markets. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled 85 cents lower at $61.40 per barrel, dropping 1.4% to the weakest closing price since March 29. Brent crude oil futures fell $1.31, or 1.8%, $69.93 per barrel around 2:30 p.m. ET (1830 GMT), on pace for the lowest settle since April 4.“An escalation in the U.S.-China trade war has brought oil prices under renewed pressure,” said Abhishek Kumar, head of Analytics at Interfax Energy in London. “The spat has reinvigorated demand-side concerns, given that the conflict has been adversely impacting prospects for global economic growth.” On the supply side, oil markets remain tense as the United States has tightened sanctions on Iranian oil exports and plans to bulk up its forces in the world’s top oil-exporting region. U.S. officials announced on Sunday that the movement of the Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group and a bomber task force towards the Middle East was meant to counter “credible threats,” but Tehran dismissed the move as “psychological warfare.” “The threat of military action with Iran appears to have heightened ... This has allowed the oil complex to gain some footing after WTI has been beaten down during the past couple of weeks by some unexpectedly large crude supply increases,”

Oil Algos Confused By Bigger Than Expected Crude Build, Gasoline Draw -  Oil prices tumbled today (after ripping higher yesterday along with everything else) as Trump's tariff-threats appear to be taken more seriously by market participants.“There are concerns about the broad economic environment,” said Michael Tran, a commodity strategist at RBC Capital Markets LLC in New York. “Clearly, the biggest risk to the oil market right now is the Trump factor coupled with macro headwinds.” After last week's surprisingly large crude build, all eyes are on API data tonight for hints at whether the extreme long positioning in the energy complex will be squeezed any further. API:

• Crude +2.81mm (+1.2mm exp)
• Cushing +618k
• Gasoline -2.833mm
• Distillates -834k

Another bigger than expected crude build last week but draws in gasoline and distillates (again) offset the bearish bias of the build... American drillers have boosted output to a record while pushing nationwide stockpiles to the highest since September 2017. WTI was testing down towards a $60 handle ahead of the data and kneejerked modestly higher after the print, despite the crude build...

Oil Falls After Third Consecutive Crude Build - The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a build in crude oil inventory of 2.81 million barrels for the week ending May 3, coming in over analyst expectations of a 744,000-barrel buildup in inventories.  Last week, the API reported a surprise buildup in crude oil of 6.81 million barrels. A day later, the EIA reported an even larger build of 9.9-million-barrels.   Including this week’s data, the net build is now 20.92 million barrels for the 19-week reporting period so far this year, using API data.  Oil prices fell sharply on Tuesday as the China-US trade war continues, sparking fears that global growth will be disappointing, despite a tightening of oil supplies in Venezuela and Iran in the wake of US sanctions.  WTI was trading down on Tuesday before the data release at $60.74, down $1.51 (-2.43%) on the day at 12:42pm, but down week on week by more than $3 per barrel. The Brent benchmark was also trading down on the day at $69.47, down $1.77 (-2.48%) at that time. The Brent benchmark was also significantly down week on week. The API this week reported a draw in gasoline inventories for week ending May 3 in the amount of 2.833 million barrels. Analysts estimated a draw in gasoline inventories of 917,000 barrels for the week.  Distillates fell by 834,000 barrels for the week, while inventories at Cushing gained 618,000 barrels.  By 4:41pm EST, WTI was trading down at $60.74 and Brent was trading down at $69.47.

Oil Prices Extend Losses On Growth Worries - - Oil prices fell on Wednesday to extended losses from the previous session as renewed doubts over U.S.-China trade talks stoked concerns over global growth. Mixed trade data from China also added to economic uncertainty while surging China crude imports and U.S. sanctions on crude exporters Iran and Venezuela helped to limit the overall downside. Benchmark Brent crude dropped 0.6 percent to $69.47 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 0.4 percent at $61.16 per barrel. After the U.S. confirmed that it planned to raise tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods, investors remained edgy ahead of trade talks on Thursday and Friday in Washington. Chinese trade data proved to be a mixed bag. While exports unexpectedly shrank 2.7 percent in April from a year earlier, imports surprised with their first increase in five months. China's crude oil imports in April hit a record high of 10.68 million b/d, rebounding from 9.3 million b/d in March, preliminary data from the General Administration of Customs showed. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other producers will meet in June to decide their output policy for the rest of the year. Saudi Arabia, OPEC's de-facto leader, would raise its crude oil production to meet market needs arising from U.S. sanctions on Iran, U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry said on Tuesday.

WTI Pops After Surprise Crude Draw - Oil rallied overnight from a five-week low as concern over supply losses from Iran to Russia overrode an API-reported rise in American stockpiles and trade-war fears.“There are concerns about the broad economic environment,” said Michael Tran, a commodity strategist at RBC Capital Markets LLC in New York. “Clearly, the biggest risk to the oil market right now is the Trump factor coupled with macro headwinds.”After last week's surprisingly large crude build, all eyes are on this week's data for hints at whether the extreme long positioning in the energy complex will be squeezed any further. DOE

• Crude -3.96mm (+1.9mm exp)
• Cushing +821k
• Gasoline -596k
• Distillates -159k

After the prior week's huge build, crude stockpiles were expected to build modestly (as API reported) but instead crude saw a large drawdown (3.96mm) and gasoline and distillates also drewdown. However, Bloomberg's Catherine Ngai notes that while we saw that big headline draw in crude, it's important to note that inventories in the Midwest jumped by 1.66 million barrels. That might've been caused by some refinery hiccups in the region as well as the open arb from Permian and Midcon into Cushing.Saudi imports hit a record low... 

 Oil rises 1.2%, settling at $62.12, after surprise drop in US crude stockpiles - Oil futures rose on Wednesday, boosted by a surprise drawdown in U.S. crude stockpiles, but an escalating U.S.-Chinese trade fight limited oil's gains as investors worried about the global outlook for energy demand. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled 72 cents higher at $62.12 per barrel, posting a 1.2% gain. Brent crude oil futures rose 49 cents, or 0.7%, to $70.37 per barrel on Wednesday. U.S. crude inventories fell by 4 million barrels in the week to May 3, the Energy Information Administration said. Analysts had expected an increase of 1.2 million barrels. Gasoline stocks fell by 596,000 barrels, while distillate inventories fell by 159,000 barrels, the data showed.  "The report was bullish ... due to a sharp decline in imports," said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC in New York. "The fall in crude oil inventories also came despite lowered refinery operating rates." Prices have gained more than 30% so far this year as the global supply outlook has tightened due to U.S. sanctions on crude exporters Iran and Venezuela, as well as supply cuts by OPEC, Russia and their allies. Still, prices were pressured by the trade war between the world's two largest economies. The United States will raise tariffs to 25% from 10% on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports effective Friday, according to a notice posted to the Federal Register. President Donald Trump had threatened the duties after China backtracked on a trade deal. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will travel to Washington for two days of trade talks this week, China said on Tuesday. "The market is fearful that the other shoe is going to drop on the global economy if we get into a trade war; it will hurt oil demand,"

Oil falls on trade dispute despite surprise drop in US crude inventories - Oil prices steadied on Thursday as an escalating trade battle between the United States and China counteracted upward pressure from a surprise decline in U.S. crude inventories. Heightened tensions between the world's two biggest economies have clouded the outlook for global growth, which influences oil demand expectations. Global equity marketswere also hit. Brent crude oil futures were down 3 cents at $70.34 a barrel by 7:12 a.m. ET (1112 GMT), heading for their second consecutive weekly loss. Earlier in the session they fell as low as $69.57 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $61.43 per barrel, down 69 cents and set for a third week of losses. "Supply-side issues are bigger that those due to demand growth worries." U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that China "broke the deal" in trade talks with Washington and would face stiff tariffs if no agreement is reached. Higher tariffs are set to take effect on Friday, during Chinese Vice Premier Liu He's two-day visit to Washington which starts Thursday. "The oil market has come under renewed pressure this morning, with the hope of a China/U.S. trade agreement fading," ING said in a note. "However, fundamentally the oil market remains constructive, with the global balance tightening, and the potential for a number of supply-side risks (remaining)." Oil prices have had some support from signs of tighter global supply on the back of production cuts by OPEC and allies including Russia.

Oil Supply Shortages Countered By Trade War - Oil prices were flat in early trading on Friday, sandwiched between supply outages and the escalating U.S.-China trade war.  The U.S. hiked tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods from 10 to 25 percent on Friday, while leaving open the possibility that trade talks could continue. Trump also began the process of new tariffs on another $325 billion in Chinese imports. China vowed to implement retaliatory measures. “The opportunity window for avoiding a trade war is closing fast,” Citigroup wrote in a note to clients. Global financial markets were largely stable on Friday, suggesting that major investors still think that a resolution can be reached. “Our base case remains that the U.S. and China will eventually reach some kind of accord,” said Mark Haefele, global chief investment officer for the Swiss bank UBS, in a note. As the sweet spots in the U.S. shale patch become crowded, it may be more costly and difficult to keep production elevated, according to a new report. While drilling techniques have succeeded in growing output, the industry may simply be front-loading production.  Crude inventories fell and oil production also dipped in the most recent report from the EIA. That ended a string of inventory increases and offers some evidence that the market is not oversupplied.  Brent crude futures have opened up a steep backwardation, evidence that the physical market for crude is tightening. Yet, spot prices have fallen in the last two weeks, and analysts are puzzled at the discrepancy. “There is no true sign of weakness in the physical market,” Olivier Jakob, managing director of consultant Petromatrix GmbH, told Bloomberg. “You have lower exports from Venezuela, you’ve got sanctions for Iran, Libya which is still a risk.” The U.S.-Iran conflict escalated this week, with rhetoric on both sides growing more heated. Iran said it would withdraw from parts of the nuclear deal, and top U.S. officials hinted at a military response. Washington also imposed sanctions on metals exports from Iran. Iran warned the EU to step up incentives or else it will fully withdraw from the 2015 accord. Meanwhile, Iran’s oil exports are plunging.  Saudi Arabia is holding firm on oil exports despite the tightening market. Saudi oil exports are expected to remain below 7 mb/d in June, with production also below the OPEC+ ceiling.

Oil Inches Higher As Rig Count Continues To Decline - The number of active oil and gas rigs fell again in the United States this week according to Baker Hughes, after a string of losses in the weeks prior, keeping the overall rig count well below year-ago levels for a fourth week in a row. The total number of active oil and gas drilling rigs in the United States fell by 2 according to the report, with the number of active oil rigs falling 2 to reach 805 and the number of gas rigs holding steady at 183. The combined oil and gas rig count is 988, with oil seeing a 39-rig decrease year on year and gas rigs down 16 since this time last year. The combined oil and gas rig count is down 57 year on year. At 10:43am EST, WTI was trading up slightly $0.05 (+0.08%) at $61.75—up on the day, but down on the week as traders struggle to accurately assess the state of the oil market with Iran sanction waivers ending and the China-US trade war taking a turn for the worse. The Brent benchmark was trading up $0.21 (+0.30%) at $70.60, down slightly week on week. While the United States has seen a significant drop in the number of active oil and gas rigs, US oil production continues to rise. US crude oil production fell slightly for week ending May 3, standing at 12.2 million barrels, easing off last week’s all-time high of 12.3 million barrels per day. Canada’s rig count increased by 2, with the number of active oil rigs up by 5, and the number of gas rigs holding falling by 3 to reach 41. Canada’s oil rigs are now down 10 year on year, with gas rigs down 6 year on year. WTI was trading up 0.50% on the day at 1:08pm EST, with Brent up 0.70%.

Oil prices steady as supply factors offset US-China trade tensions - Oil prices were little changed on Friday even as the start of U.S. President Donald Trump 's tariff hike on $200 billion of Chinese goods kept tensions high in the trade dispute between the world's two biggest economies. Brent crude oil was up 14 cents at $70.53 a barrel around 10:30 a.m. ET (1430 GMT), having touched a peak of $71.23. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 4 cents at $61.66, having earlier hit $62.49. Both contracts were on track for small weekly losses. The United States escalated its tariff war with China on Friday by increasing levies to 25% for $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, but negotiations were set to continue on Friday. Trump issued orders for the tariff increase, saying China "broke the deal" by reneging on previous commitments. He also said he would start the "paperwork" on Friday for 25% duties on a further $325 billion of Chinese imports. Prices were supported by tighter supply amid continuing production cuts by OPEC and U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. Growing trade between the world's two largest oil consumers could affect oil demand. The two countries together accounted for 34% of global oil consumption in the first quarter of 2019, data from the International Energy Agency shows. While trade war concerns have weighed on prices this week, "the spreads clearly point towards a tight market", ING bank said. The July Brent crude contract was trading at nearly $1 a barrel above the August contract in a market structure known as backwardation. RBC's Croft: Rising geopolitical tensions could push oil prices higher

Oil steady, ends week lower as trade tensions weigh (Reuters) - Oil prices were mostly steady on Friday, ending the week slightly lower as trade tensions stoked by a U.S. move to hike tariffs on Chinese goods overshadowed tightened global supplies and expectations of rising U.S. refining demand. Brent crude oil settled 23 cents, or 0.4%, higher at $70.62 a barrel, but posted a weekly loss of 0.3%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures ended 4 cents lower at $61.66, with a weekly loss of 0.5%. After a volatile week, investors were worried over the possibility of a protracted and bitter U.S.-China trade war, despite last-minute efforts to salvage a deal. U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday said he was in no hurry to sign a trade deal with China as Washington imposed a new set of tariffs on Chinese goods and negotiators ended a second day of talks. Growing trade tensions between the world’s two largest oil consumers could affect oil demand. The United States and China together accounted for 34% of global oil consumption in the first quarter of 2019, data from the International Energy Agency showed. Prices gained some support on Friday as investors anticipated U.S. Gulf Coast and Midwestern refineries, which are coming out of seasonal maintenance, to boost oil demand ahead of the U.S. summer driving season. “Crude oil has more potential for upside,” said Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst at the Oil Price Information Service. “With Gulf refineries starting up, demand is going to be significantly above supply for the next 100 days or so.” Investors also focused on tightened supplies following OPEC-led production cuts since the start of the year. Investors believe the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its producer allies will extend the six-month output-cut agreement in coming weeks. “We’re waiting to see whether the Saudis signal their extension of the production cut,” in coming weeks, said Gene McGillian, vice president of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “The market is finding its next driver.” Markets have been buoyed further by Washington’s bid to cut Iran’s oil exports to zero. The United States reimposed sanctions on Iran in November after pulling out of a 2015 nuclear accord between Tehran and world powers last year. It initially allowed Iran’s biggest buyers to continue purchasing oil via waivers for another six months, but those exemptions ended at the beginning of May.

Saudi Arabia's oil exports to stay below 7 mln bpd in June- Gulf source (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia is expected to keep its crude exports below 7 million barrels per day in June, while output would stay under its production quota under a global deal to cut oil supply, a Gulf source familiar with Saudi oil plans said on Wednesday. “Moderate requests have been received from customers for June liftings, which will all be met, most notably from countries which previously had waivers from sanctions against purchases of Iranian crudes that were recently discontinued by the U.S. administration,” the Gulf source said. “Based on such requests, Saudi oil production for the month of June is expected to remain below its OPEC+ commitment, while exports will also stay under 7 million barrels per day.” The Gulf oil source also said that based on market conditions so far, current oil production level by OPEC and its allies should be sufficient to bring global oil inventories back to balance by the end of the year.

 Saudis To Meet All Ex-Iran Crude Orders As Possible OPEC Collapse Looms - Saudi officials have signaled the kingdom plans to meet all orders from former buyers of Iranian oil for the month of June. US Energy Secretary Rick Perry confirmed in statements made Tuesday that OPEC's de facto leader Saudi Arabia would increase its oil production to make up for choked supply resulting from US sanctions efforts that aim to bring Iran's crude exports "down to zero". However, Azerbaijan’s oil minister said the Saudis informed him that no firm decisions would be made on production levels for the whole year in unilateral fashion; instead, Riyadh plans to seek backing for any extreme measures during OPEC's June meeting at the oil cartel's headquarters in Vienna, Austria - where future production policy will be hashed out.  This has left many asking the obvious question: will Iran soon pull out of OPEC altogether? It appears we'll soon find out after OPEC's June meeting.  Saudi Arabia plans to meet all the requests for oil purchases it has received for June, notably from countries that had to stop buying Iranian crude because of the recent U.S. sanctions. The world’s biggest oil exporter has received moderate requests from customers for shipments next month, including from former buyers of Iran’s oil, according to a Persian Gulf person familiar with Saudi plans, who asked not to be identified because the matter is confidential.

The Saudi Shia: Between an Iranian rock and a Saudi hard place --Last month, Saudi Arabia quietly beheaded 37 people, mostly Shia men from the country's Eastern Province. They had all been sentenced in what international human rights organisations called "grossly unfair" trials - some for "spying" for Iran and others for "joining a terrorist" group. Many of them had alleged they were tortured into signing false confessions. None of the bodies was given back to the families, who were told not to hold funerals. Two of them were pinned to a post for the public to see - a measure clearly meant to stir fear within the Shia minority, which makes up between 10 and 15 percent of the Saudi population and is mostly based in the Eastern Province.Although the Saudi authorities have tried to present this case as a national security issue - trying the 37 men in a special court that deals with terrorism and portraying them as Iranian agents - it has little to do with either terror acts or Iranian influence.  Shia disenfranchisement in Saudi Arabia has deep historical roots and only recently has been instrumentalised in the growing regional conflict between Riyadh and Tehran. The only "crime" of the Shia men who were executed in April and the many more who are still being held in Saudi jails was to demand the end of systemic discrimination and human rights abuses.

174 Yemeni Fishermen Kidnapped by Saudi Arabia— The Saudi-led Coalition kidnapped more than 170 Yemeni fishermen and seized their boats while they were fishing near the port city of Hodeida this past week. To demonstrate clearly that they posed no threat, the fishermen hung large white flags on the back of their boats and waved fish in the air as Coalition military vessels approached their boats. “A gunboat approached and forced us to get off the boat, then a Saudi soldier told us to follow them to the warship. I managed to escape but the others could not,” Salem Arud told MintPress. “We are not Houthis, just poor fishermen who went out to make a living in the sea.” “All told, 174 fishermen and 10 boats were abducted by Saudi-led forces,” Mohammed al-Hassani, head of the Forum of Tahamah Fishermen, told MintPress. “Despite Sweden’s truce, Coalition forces have continued to prevent Yemeni fishermen from fishing and if the fishermen dare to sail, they will be killed or detained.” After a ceasefire agreement for the port city of Hodeida was reached in Sweden late last year, thousands of fishermen decided to take their small boats into deeper waters off of Hodeida’s coast, but have faced arrest or even been the target of airstrikes by the Saudi-led Coalition. Meanwhile, the families of the kidnapped fishermen organized a protest asking the Coalition to release their loved ones. “Saudi forces kidnapped my sons. Their fate is still unknown,” a father of two fishermen told MintPress during the protest. According to the Legal Center for Rights and Development in Yemen, a non-governmental organization monitoring human-rights violations, the destruction of 433 fishing boats by the Saudi-led Coalition has robbed many of Hodeida’s residents of their sole source of income and ability to feed their families.

US deploys aircraft carrier and bombers after 'troubling indications' from Iran - The US is sending an aircraft carrier and a bomber task force to the Middle East in response to a “number of troubling and escalatory indications and warnings” from Iran, the national security advisor John Bolton has said. It was unclear on Sunday night what Iranian actions Bolton was referring to. There have been no recent incidents in the Persian Gulf where US and Iranian navies are routinely in close proximity and the Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group was already bound for the Gulf a month before Bolton made his announcement. However, the tone of Bolton’s declaration looked likely to escalate tensions in the region, and it comes days after the Iranian government expressed concern that Bolton and other hawks were seeking to draw the Trump administration into a new war. In a written statement, Bolton said the ships and planes were intended “to send a clear and unmistakable message to the Iranian regime that any attack on United States interests or on those of our allies will be met with unrelenting force.” “The United States is not seeking war with the Iranian regime, but we are fully prepared to respond to any attack, whether by proxy, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or regular Iranian forces,” the statement said. Rotations of aircraft carrier “strike groups” and bomber fleets happen routinely. At present there are none in the US Central Command region, which encompasses the Middle East and Afghanistan. The Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group, left its base in Norfolk, Virginia, on 1 April and was due to sail to the Mediterranean for exercises and then on to the Gulf.

US threatens Iran with war - Will US bombs and missiles soon be raining down on Iran? The dispatch of US warplanes and an aircraft carrier strike group to the Persian Gulf region with the express aim of sending “a clear and unmistakable message” that Washington is ready to attack Iran, along with other bellicose US actions, indicates that preparations are far advanced for a provocation that could—and most likely would—trigger a catastrophic war.On Sunday evening, US National Security Adviser John Bolton announced that the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and US Air Force bombers were being deployed to threaten Iran. Claiming that there were “troubling and escalatory indications and warnings,” Bolton vowed “that any attack on United States interests or those of our allies will be met with unrelenting force.” “We are fully prepared,” added Bolton, “to respond to any attack, whether by proxy, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or regular Iranian forces.”Bolton’s threats were echoed by fellow anti-Iran war-hawk, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. He too advanced a sweeping justification for possible military action against Iran, including any “attack” on US “interests” and those of its allies by a long and diverse list of groups that Washington castigates Tehran for backing, from Shia militias in Iraq and Houthi fighters in Yemen to the Palestinian group Hamas and Lebanon’s Hezbollah.“We will hold the Iranians accountable for attacks on American interests,” Pompeo told reporters late Sunday, “The fact that those actions take place, if they do, by some third-party proxy, whether that’s a Shia militia group or the Houthis or Hezbollah, we will hold the Iranians—Iranian leadership—directly accountable for that. With these “warnings” Washington has effectively proclaimed license to manufacture, at a time of its choosing, a pretext for launching war on Iran. An “attack” on the “interests” of the US and its allies could include virtually anything, from a clash between one of the various Shia militias in Iraq and any of the 5,500 US troops that remain stationed there, to the death of an Israeli-American citizen by a crude rocket launched from the Gaza Strip.

White House Accuses Iran of Planning to Attack US Troops in Iraq — A US buildup of military forces in the Middle East and threats to use force against Iran are now being justified by US officials who claim to have “clear indications” that Iran was plotting to attack US forces in Iraq according to some reports. Exactly what these “clear indications” actually were is unclear. Israeli media, however, gave credit to Israeli intelligence, saying they’d passed on their own report of a “possible Iran plot,” and the White House went from there. This intelligence doesn’t seem great, as officials say that Mossad was unclear what Iran was actually planning to do, but that tensions are on the rise, and there were several scenarios that Mossad came up with that might happen. Israel is always keen to drum up tensions between the US and Iran at any rate, so they probably didn’t need a lot of confidence to pass it along to the US and hope something came of it. Iran, by contrast, accused the US of “talking up” the threat as a justification for a buildup that the US Navy had scheduled some time ago. The Navy has already scheduled the aircraft carrier deployment nearly a month ago.

U.S. targets Iran's metals for sanctions, Tehran relaxes nuclear deal compliance (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday imposed new sanctions on Iran, targeting revenue from its exports of industrial metals, the latest salvo in tensions between Washington and Tehran over a 2015 international accord curbing the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program. Iran had announced hours earlier that it was relaxing some restrictions on its nuclear program, steps that stopped short of violating the deal with world powers for now, but threatening more action if countries do not shield it from U.S. sanctions. An executive order issued by Trump covers Iran’s iron, steel, aluminum, and copper sectors, the government’s largest non-petroleum-related sources of export revenue and 10 percent of its export economy, a White House statement said. “Tehran can expect further actions unless it fundamentally alters its conduct,” Trump said. The administration says the nuclear deal, negotiated by Trump’s predecessor Barack Obama, was flawed as it is not permanent, does not address Iran’s ballistic missile program and does not punish it for waging proxy wars in the Middle East. Tensions between the two countries were already high when the Trump administration said last weekend that it was deploying a carrier strike group and bombers to the Middle East in response to what it said were “troubling indications and warnings” from Iran. On Wednesday, a senior administration official said the United States was “not escalating militarily against Iran” and accused Iran of being “provocative.” It was in Iran’s best interests to continue complying with the pact, the official said. The executive order effectively bans entities from the purchase, acquisition, sale, transport, or marketing of those minerals and their products from Iran or face sanctions.

Iran to resume parts of shuttered nuclear program after US pulls out of deal: report - Iran will resume certain parts of its shuttered nuclear program in the wake of U.S. withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal but will not pull out of the deal entirely, Reuters reported, citing state media.Iranian President Hassan Rouhani plans to announce the scaling back of some “minor and general” commitments under the deal on Wednesday, which marks the anniversary of President Trump’s announcement that the U.S. would exit the arrangement, according to the news service.“The Islamic Republic of Iran in reaction to the exit of America from the nuclear deal and the bad promises of European countries in carrying out their obligations will restart a part of the nuclear activities which were stopped under the framework of the nuclear deal,” a source told the state-run IRIB news agency Monday, according to Reuters. The details of what commitments the Iranian government plans to scale back are unclear, but a Wall Street Journal report quotes European diplomats who believe the nation may devote more research into centrifuges that could produce enriched uranium. The report comes amid increasing tensions between the U.S. and Iran. On Sunday evening, national security adviser John Bolton announced the U.S. would deploy the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group and a bomber task force “in response to a number of troubling and escalatory indications and warnings.”

Iran Urges Diplomacy as US Ramps Up “Wildly Reckless” Threats of War -  In the face of belligerent threats of war from the Trump administration, Iran on Wednesday took what some observers described as rational steps to reduce compliance with the nuclear accord to pressure European nations to live up to their end of the deal.“The path we have chosen today is not the path of war, it is the path of diplomacy,” Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said in a speech Wednesday, which marks the one-year anniversary of U.S. President Donald Trump’s violation of the nuclear agreement.“It is not us who has left the negotiation table,” Rouhani added. Rouhani’s announcement came just days after U.S. national security adviser John Bolton used the routine deployment of an American aircraft carrier and bomber task force to threaten Iran with “unrelenting force”—a move critics denounced as a dangerous step in the direction of all-out war. The Iranian president said European signatories of the nuclear accord have 60 days to negotiate new terms that would mitigate the impact of crippling sanctions imposed by the U.S. If the 60-day deadline is not met, Rouhani said, Iran will end limits on uranium enrichment. Matt Duss, foreign policy adviser for Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), said that while American war hawks often characterize Iran as “a crazy irrational regime that can’t be negotiated with,” Iran “is responding pretty rationally to Trump’s wildly reckless and irrational Iran policy.”

Trump ratchets up pressure on Iran with sanctions on exports of steel, copper and other metals -  President Donald Trump on Wednesday ordered new sanctions placed on Iranian metals, Tehran's largest non-petroleum-related sources of export revenue.It is the administration's latest effort to pressure the regime over its support for weapons proliferation and extremist groups in the Middle East."Today's action targets Iran's revenue from the export of industrial metals — 10 percent of its export economy — and puts other nations on notice that allowing Iranian steel and other metals into your ports will no longer be tolerated," Trump said in a statement about the sanctions. Trump added that Tehran "can expect further actions unless it fundamentally alters its conduct" and said that he looks forward to "meeting with the leaders of Iran in order to work out an agreement and, very importantly, taking steps to give Iran the future it deserves." Wednesday's executive order targets Iranian iron, steel, aluminum and copper sectors in hopes of denying the Iranian government the ability to "provide funding and support for the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, terrorist groups and networks, campaigns of regional aggression, and military expansion," according to Trump. "It remains the policy of the United States to deny Iran all paths to both a nuclear weapon and intercontinental ballistic missiles, and to counter the totality of Iran's malign influence in the Middle East."The Trump administration also took aim at Iranian oil by effectively ordering countries worldwide to stop buying Tehran's oil or face sanctions of their own. Brian Hook, the State Department's Iran special envoy, said Wednesday during a briefing that the U.S. would not grant sanction waivers to any countries buying Iranian oil. The latest revelation comes hours after Tehran announced it was relaxing some restrictions on its nuclear program but would not violate a 2015 accord with Russia, China, Britain, France, Germany and the United States.

 'We reject any ultimatums': Europe responds firmly to Iran's nuclear deal threat - The EU has responded firmly to Iran's threat to roll back its 2015 nuclear deal commitments, saying in a statement Thursday that it rejects any ultimatums but remained committed to the multilateral pact."We reject any ultimatums and will assess Iran's compliance on the basis of Iran's performance regarding its nuclear-related commitments under the JCPOA and the NPT," the joint statement from the EU high representative and the foreign ministers of France, Germany and the U.K. read, referring to the deal itself — the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action — and the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Weapons, respectively.In essence, the EU is saying that inspectors, not declarations, will determine how it approaches Iran going forward. And that may take some time: Data on Iran's nuclear activities will be unclear until the International Atomic Energy Agency publishes its quarterly report in August. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani announced Wednesday his country would end its compliance with two particular conditions of the nuclear deal if Europe did not step in to protect the country from U.S. sanctions, re-imposed after the President Donald Trump administration withdrew from the agreement one year ago.Rouhani essentially gave Europe an ultimatum: Choose Iran over the U.S. by resuming Iranian trade in violation of sanctions, or see Iran return to higher levels of uranium enrichment. Tehran said it would restart construction on its Arak nuclear reactor, which was capable of producing weapons-grade plutonium and had been shut down as part of the 2015 deal."We remain fully committed to the preservation and full implementation of the JCPOA, a key achievement of the global nuclear non-proliferation architecture, which is in the security interest of all," the EU statement read. "We strongly urge Iran to continue to implement its commitments under the JCPOA in full as it has done until now and to refrain from any escalatory steps."

China and India May Be Europe’s Last Hope to Save the Iran Deal - – The European Union will defend the Iran nuclear accord despite Tehran’s decision to backtrack on its commitments in response to US sanctions, diplomats believe, but European powers expect it to collapse without a deal to sell Iranian oil to China or India, Reuters reported.Britain, France, and Germany, which signed the 2015 deal along with the United States, China and Russia, are determined to show they can compensate for last year’s U.S. withdrawal from the accord, protect trade and still prevent Tehran from developing a nuclear bomb.But with Iran’s economy dependent on crude exports that are traded in U.S. dollars, a promised European trade channel to bypass American sanctions has proved complicated, is not yet operational, and may never be able to handle oil sales. “This situation now risks deteriorating, but it will be step by step and not a collapse all in one go,” said a senior European diplomat. A French diplomat talked of a “negative spiral” in which trade in food and medicines was simply not enough, while another European envoy spoke of Iran’s “phased exit” from the deal.The Iran accord, one of the West’s biggest foreign policy achievements until U.S. President Donald Trump pulled out in May 2018, lifted punishing United Nations’ sanctions on Iran in return for Iranian compliance with the deal.Iran has met its terms but Trump withdrew because he believes the accord did not curtail Tehran’s ballistic missile programme or address Iranian involvement in Syria’s civil war, something Europeans argue the 2015 deal was not designed to do.By reimposing punitive sanctions, the United States says it aims to dramatically weaken Iran’s clerical rulers and force Tehran to renegotiate a broader arms control deal.The European Union says that can still be done without tearing up the nuclear accord, which put strict limits on Iranian enrichment.

Iran appears to be restarting oil shipments to Syria as Trump turns up pressure - Tanker-tracking firms believe Iran is once again shipping crude oil to Syria, resuming the illicit trade as tensions with Washington rise and the Islamic Republic faces increasing international isolation. An Iranian delivery of approximately one million barrels of crude was made into the Syrian port of Baniyas during the first week of May, according to TankerTrackers.com and ClipperData, two groups that follows oil vessels. This would be the first Iranian oil delivery to Syria since the end of 2018, according to Samir Madani, founder of TankerTrackers. The suspected delivery comes one year after the U.S. unilaterally pulled out of an international nuclear agreement with Iran and just one week after the Trump administration tightened energy sanctions in an effort to push Iranian crude exports to zero. It also follows the deployment of a U.S. carrier strike group and bomber task force to the Middle East earlier this week. US and Iran both made 'deliberately provocative' gestures The US is being 'deliberately provocative' to Iran: Expert 2:34 AM ET Thu, 9 May 2019 | 02:52 Iran's leadership in Tehran responded on Wednesday by announcing it will stop complying with key parts of the nuclear accord. The same day, Washington slapped new sanctions on Iranian metal exports. Analysts have widely predicted that Iran will step up efforts to smuggle oil into Syria and neighboring Iraq as the U.S. makes it more difficult for Tehran to ship oil to its few remaining customers, including China, India and Turkey. Madani, the TankerTrackers founder, has tracked Iranian vessels for nearly three years, both through data collected by the U.S. Coast Guard and what he calls, "eyes in the sky," essentially visual data collected by a network of satellites. This allows the group to track tankers that may turn off their transponders — a common move for those selling oil off the markets. The most recent moves by an Iranian tanker, previously known as True Ocean, caught the attention of both tracking companies when the vessel made a series of unusual moves. The Suezmax tanker in question, now traveling as the Masal, is on the U.S Treasury's list of vessels that has been used to move oil to Syria in the past.

Billion-Dollar Fleet Destroyed With One Missile - Iran Cleric Threatens To Sink US Carrier - At a moment the US carrier strike group ordered deployed to the CENTOM Persian Gulf region area of command has traversed the Suez Canal, and as multiple B-52 bombers have also landed in Qatar in response to "troubling and escalatory" threats by Iran against US troops in the region, a top American military commander in the region has threatened he's ready to send an aircraft carrier through the vital Strait of Hormuz "if needed". But should the US send a carrier through the key narrow oil shipping Persian Gulf choke point which is routinely patrolled by IRGC boats, one senior cleric has vowed the US Navy's..."Billion-dollar fleet can be destroyed with one missile" — according to Iran's ISNA News Agency  Vice Admiral Jim Malloy, commander of the US Navy’s Bahrain-based Fifth Fleet, made the statements to Reuters on Friday.He oversees all US naval forces in the Middle East, and at the very moment the USS Abraham Lincoln Nimitz-class carrier makes its way into the area, the commander said, “If I need to bring it inside the strait, I will do so.” He added, “I’m not restricted in any way, I’m not challenged in any way, to operate her anywhere in the Middle East.”He didn't specifically name the USS Abraham Lincoln during the telephone interview, but certainly the remarks were intentionally timed as a part of the White House's ongoing "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran. Iran, for its part, has dismissed the "deployment" and the underlying threat Bolton touted Sunday night as requiring a response as "fake intelligence" and part of a US “psychological warfare” campaign - further noting the carrier strike group's embarkation was pre-scheduled and merely used as a pretext for escalating threats.   Of the latest claims that credible intelligence indicates Iranian actions against Americans in the region could be imminent, Malloy said the intelligence was linked “with actual activity that we observed.”

Rockets fired from Gaza day after Israel kills four Palestinians =A Palestinian has been killed in an Israeli air raid on the northern Gaza Strip, according to Gaza's health ministry, amid a fresh escalation between Israel's military and Gaza fighters. Imad Nseir, 22, was killed in Beit Hanoun after Israeli warplanes targeted multiple areas in the besieged enclave on Saturday morning after dozens of rockets were fired from Gaza into southern Israel. The latest flare-up comes after Israeli forces killed four Palestinians in two separate incidents on Friday. Al Jazeera's Harry Fawcett, reporting from Jerusalem, said the barrage of rockets fired from Gaza came after an Israeli drone attack in the north of the strip early on Saturday, which injured three people. "We are looking at another military escalation, the first since last month's in which we saw another exchange of air raids and rocket fire out of Gaza, which seemed to end with some hopes towards some kind of longer-term resolution," he said. "There was a good deal of reporting about talks between Israel and Hamas mediated by Egypt with further relaxing of the situation likely to happen from the Israeli side," he continued. "Hamas says so far all they have seen is the relaxation in maritime controls, allowing fishing out to 15 nautical miles from six, which has now been reduced again."

Gaza rocket fire kills Israeli man amid escalating violence - CBS News Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip on Sunday intensified a wave of rocket fire into southern Israel, striking towns and cities across the region, killing at least one person and seriously wounding three others in one of the bloodiest rounds of fighting since the 2014 war. At least eight Palestinians, including a pregnant woman and her 14-month-old niece, have also been killed. Israeli forces struck dozens of targets throughout Gaza, including militant sites that it said were concealed in homes or residential areas. The army also moved armored units toward the Gaza perimeter as the sides headed closer to all-out war. Moshe Agadi, a 58-year-old Israeli father of four, was struck in the chest by shrapnel in a residential courtyard from one of the 450 rockets fired from Gaza in less than 24 hours. Then a midday barrage hit Ashkelon again, wounding three people, including two seriously who were suffering from "multisystem trauma." The Magen David Adom rescue service said another person was critically wounded when a rocket landed on The Israeli military has retaliated with some 260 airstrikes against militant targets in Gaza.

Israel steps up strikes as Gaza rocket attacks intensify - (AP) — Gaza militants fired hundreds of rockets into southern Israel on Sunday, killing at least four Israelis and bringing life to a standstill across the region in the bloodiest fighting since a 2014 war. As Israel pounded Gaza with airstrikes, the Palestinian death toll rose to 23, including two pregnant women and two babies. The bloodshed marked the first Israeli fatalities from rocket fire since the 2014 war. With Palestinian militants threatening to send rockets deeper into Israel and Israeli reinforcements massing near the Gaza frontier, the fighting showed no signs of slowing down. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spent most of the day huddled with his Security Cabinet. Late Sunday, the Cabinet instructed the army to “continue its attacks and to stand by” for further orders. Israel also claimed to have killed a Hamas commander involved in transferring Iranian funds to the group. Israel and Hamas, an Islamic militant group that seeks Israel’s destruction, have fought three wars since Hamas violently seized control of Gaza from Western-backed Palestinian forces in 2007. They have fought numerous smaller battles, most recently two rounds in March. While lulls in fighting used to last for months or even years, these flare-ups have grown increasingly frequent as a desperate Hamas, weakened by a crippling Egyptian-Israeli blockade imposed 12 years ago, seeks to put pressure on Israel to ease the closure. The blockade has ravaged Gaza’s economy, and a year of Hamas-led protests along the Israeli frontier has yielded no tangible benefits.

Israel hits offices of Turkish state news agency in Gaza - An Israeli airstrike hit the office of Turkey's state-run news agency in Gaza, Turkey's foreign minister said Saturday, calling it a "new example of Israel's unrestrained aggression."Israeli warplanes carried out dozens of retaliatory airstrikes across the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip in response to a barrage of rockets fired from Palestinian militants as hostilities flared into a second day.Turkey's state-run media reported that the building in which Anadolu Agency is located in Gaza was hit by at least five Israeli rockets after warning shots were fired. No deaths or injuries were reported. Turkish officials condemned the attack, which is likely to add fuel to already tense relations with Israel. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan slammed Israel for the bombing. "We strongly condemn Israel's attack against Anadolu Agency's office in Gaza," Erdogan wrote on Twitter.

Netanyahu pledges 'massive strikes' in Gaza as death toll rises  - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ordered "massive strikes" on the Gaza Strip after a two-day escalation that killed 24 Palestinians and four Israelis. Israeli warplanes and gunboats continued to target the Gaza Strip on Sunday as fighters in the besieged enclave fired a barrage of rockets into southern Israel.  A 34-year-old Hamas commander was killed in what the Israeli military described as a targeted strike. An army statement accused Hamad al-Khodori of "transferring large sums of money" from Iran to armed factions in Gaza.  He was the fifth Palestinian reported killed on Sunday. Other Palestinian victims included two pregnant women and three infants.  In the Israeli city of Ashkelon, a 58-year-old Israeli man was killed after being struck by shrapnel from a rocket attack. Two other Israelis, critically wounded in a separate rocket attacks on a factory on Sunday afternoon, later died. "This morning I instructed the IDF [the Israeli Army] to continue with massive strikes against terrorists in the Gaza Strip," Netanyahu, who doubles as Israeli defence minister, said in a statement after consulting with his security cabinet on Sunday. He said he had also ordered "tanks, artillery and infantry forces" to reinforce troops already deployed near Gaza, a move that raised fears of a ground invasion.  "Hamas is responsible not only for its attacks against Israel, but also for the Islamic Jihad's attacks, and it is paying a very heavy price for it," Netanyahu added.

Israel and Gaza militants agree to cease-fire after a weekend of violence - — An uneasy cease-fire settled over the cities of southern Israel on Monday after a weekend that brought a rain of 600 rockets from the Gaza Strip, but not all residents thought the truce was a good thing. Near the explosion-scarred house of Moshe Agadi, 58, who became the first Israeli since 2014 to die in rocket fire from Gaza, mothers took their children to play in a park after 48 hours of sheltering indoors. “Israel needs to stop this once and for all,” said Inna Kraysberg, 34, as her two young children played on a nearby slide. Four Israelis died in the violence, the worst round of fighting between Israel and militant factions in Gaza since Israel’s 2014 war with Hamas. In Gaza, 25 people were killed as Israel responded with airstrikes, bringing multistory buildings thundering to the ground. However, efforts by Egypt and the United Nations to broker a cease-fire bore fruit by the early hours of Monday, as armed factions in Gaza said they had agreed to a truce. Hamas and Islamic Jihad, the two largest militant groups in Gaza, confirmed that a cease-fire was in place. A spokesman for the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declined to comment on the reports, but the Israeli military said that protective restrictions for civilians in southern Israel were being lifted.

Israeli Newspaper Publishes Terms of ‘Deal of the Century’ - The US has said it will reveal its deal after the Muslim month of fasting comes to an end in early June.  The main points of the agreement put together by Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner — who has extensive interests in Israel and its settlements — and proposed by the US administration are as follows: A tripartite agreement will be signed between Israel, the PLO and Hamas, and a Palestinian state will be established that will be called “New Palestine” and will be established in the occupied West Bank and Gaza, with the exception of the settlements. Israel would release Palestinian prisoners gradually over the course of three years under the deal. The settlement blocs in the occupied West Bank, which are illegal under international law, would form part of Israel.Jerusalem will not be divided but is to be shared by Israel and the “New Palestine” with Israel maintaining general control.Palestinians living in Jerusalem would be citizens of the Palestinian state but Israel would remain in charge of the municipality and therefore the land. The newly formed Palestinian state would pay taxes to the Israeli municipality in order to be in charge of education in the city for Palestinians. The status quo at the holy sites will remain and Jewish Israelis will not be allowed to buy Palestinian houses and vice versa. Egypt will offer the new Palestinian state land to build an airport, factories and for agriculture which will service the Gaza Strip. Palestinians will not be permitted to live on this land. A highway would be built to connect the Gaza Strip to the West Bank 30 metres above Israel. Funding for the project will mainly come from China, which will pay 50 per cent of the cost, with South Korea, Australia, Canada, the US and EU each paying a ten per cent each.  The US, EU and Gulf states would fund and sponsor the deal for five years to establish the state of “New Palestine”, the leak claims. This would be at a cost of $6 billion a year; the majority of which -70 per cent – would be paid by Gulf states, with the US contributing 20 per cent and the EU ten per cent. “New Palestine” would not be allowed to form an army but could maintain a police force.  Instead, a defence agreement will be signed between Israel and the “New Palestine” in which Israel would defend the new state from any foreign attacks. Upon signing the agreement, Hamas will hand over all its weapons to Egypt. The movement’s leaders would be compensated and paid salaries by Arab states while a government is established. If Hamas or any Palestinian bodies refuse this deal, the US will cancel all of its financial support to the Palestinians and pressure other countries to do the same.  If, on the other hand, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas signs the deal but Hamas and Islamic Jihad do not agree to it, a war would be waged on the Gaza Strip with the full backing of the US.  However, if Israel refuses the deal the US would cease its financial support. The US currently pays $3.8 billion a year to support Israel.

Turkey says it will not bow to U.S. sanctions over S-400 deal (Reuters) - Turkey will never bow to U.S. sanctions over its agreement to purchase Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile defense systems, Vice President Fuat Oktay said on Sunday regarding a deal that has strained ties between the NATO allies. Washington says the systems are not compatible with NATO equipment and may compromise its Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter jets. It has warned of possible U.S. sanctions if Ankara pushes on with the Russian deal. Turkey, a prospective buyer and a partner in the production of the F-35s, has said the S-400s and jets would not impact each other and that it will not abandon its deal with Russia. It has proposed forming a working group with Washington to assess the impact of the S-400s, but says it has not received a response yet. Speaking to broadcaster Kanal 7, Oktay said the U.S. concerns are unreasonable and that the planned July delivery date for the S-400s remained unchanged. “When Turkey signs an agreement, Turkey keeps its promise. We signed this agreement and certain payments were made,” Oktay said. “I don’t think the arguments and concerns here have a lot to lean on,” he said. The United States has also offered to sell Turkey its rival Raytheon Co. Patriot defense systems, which Turkey’s Defence Minister Hulusi Akar said Ankara was still evaluating. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who will visit Turkey next week, told Turkey’s state-run Anadolu news agency on Sunday that decisions about defense procurement were up to individual countries. “The issue of procuring military materiel is a national decision for countries, but the ability of allied armies to work together is a fundamental issue for NATO to run its operations and missions,” Stoltenberg was quoted as saying.

Chinese authorities are reportedly using an app to monitor Muslims in Xinjiang and see if they match 36 'person types' deemed as dangerous - Chinese authorities are using an app to monitor residents in the western Xinjiang region and flag them to officials as dangerous, according to a Human Rights Watch (HRW) report released Thursday.Researchers at HRW said they obtained a copy last year of a mass surveillance app used by police in Xinjiang, which is home to an estimated 13 million Uighur Muslims as well as a other Muslim minority groups that are subjected to unprecedented surveillance measures. Researchers said the app was publicly available when they downloaded it in early 2018, and the app's source code indicated its first iteration was released in December 2016.According to the report, the app compiles data about Xinjiang inhabitants, including their blood type, height and information about their electricity use, and warns government officials and police officers when it detects a suspicious person.  As part of the detection process, the app classifies suspects based on 36 "person types" that are marked as suspicious, HRW said. While the report doesn't go into detail on all 36 personas, it explained on some occasions the code makes specific reference to figures or activities specific to Xinjiang. For example, the app references "followers of Six Lanes," which is said to relate to followers of certain religious scholars in Xinjiang who are considered threatening. The app is also said to flag people who have gone on the Hajj, or religious pilgrimage to Mecca, without government permission. In the past, authorities have outfitted Muslims embarking on the Hajj with GPS trackers in order to keep tabs on their activities while abroad. Muslims have also been forced to pledge loyalty to the communist party before being allowed to leave Xinjiang for the Hajj.

China says its April trade surplus was $13.84 billion, far below expectations - China posted a big miss in its overall trade surplus for April, as exports unexpectedly fell and imports surprisingly rose. The numbers came on Wednesday as the trade impasse between the U.S. and China continues to drag on. Customs data on Wednesday showed that trade surplus for April came in at $13.84 billion. That was far lower than the $35 billion economists polled by Reuters had expected, and below the $32.65 billion posted in March. Dollar-denominated exports also missed expectations in April, falling 2.7% from a year ago, according to data from the China's General Administration of Customs. Economists polled by Reuters expected an increase of 2.3% from a year earlier. However, April imports unexpectedly rose by 4% from a year ago, compared to a decline of 3.6% that economists predicted. Imports in March fell 7.6%. China's trade surplus with the U.S., meanwhile, rose to $21.01 billion in April from $20.5 billion in March, the data showed. U.S. and Chinese officials have met several times in a bid to hammer out a trade deal, but Washington said this week that tariffs on Chinese products will increase on Friday, fueling fears that negotiations could be derailed. The outlook for Chinese exports will remain challenging even if a trade deal is reached with the U.S. soon, said Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist at Capital Economics. "Even if a last-minute (trade) deal is struck this week to avoid further tariffs, the downbeat prospects for global growth will probably mean that export growth remains subdued," Evans-Pritchard wrote in a note on Wednesday. Imports, however, should hold up better due to government stimulus, he added.

China Car Sales Tank 16.6% In April, Falling For A Record 11 Months In A Row - No country has better exemplified the global automobile recession than China. Sales for the world's largest auto market continue to deteriorate, with the latest report confirming that passenger vehicle sales in China tanked yet again – this time dropping 16.6% year-over-year to 1.54 million units, following a 12% decline in March and an 18.5% slide in February. In addition, April SUV sales fell 14.7% to 642,220 units. The last time retail auto sales were up in China was all the way back in May 2018, meaning sales have declined for a record 11 months in a row. The country's slowing economy and continued trade tensions with the United States are weighing on consumer sentiment among its 1.4 billion people. Additionally, changes in tax policies and import tariffs have also acted as a headwind for car demand. Cars were the only consumer product category in China that shrank the first two months of 2019. “There’s little hope for us to see positive signs for the auto market in the first half,” Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the industry group, said. As regular readers may recall, this is the same, once optimistic Cui who suggested in March that car sales "may recover in April". He predicted poorly. Despite the market contracting, names like Volkswagen, Honda and Toyota all gained ground. Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Co.’s Wuling and Baojun brands both fell in April, according to LMC Automotive. Ford reported a 54% sales plunge in China last year and said last week that it’s introducing more than 30 vehicles targeted specifically for Chinese consumers over the next three years to help it hone its focus on the market.  Some additional data, according to Bloomberg:

• Nissan Motor Co. reported a 2.9% sales decline 
• Jaguar Land Rover posted a 46% drop
• China’s Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. had a 19% decrease
• Great Wall Motor Co. reported a 2.5% gain

Beijing Puts Army On Heightened Alert Over US Warships In South China Sea As Tensions Soar -  While investors from around the globe are desperately looking for clues if the simmering trade war between the US and China is about to get rather hot at midnight on Friday, when as the US Trade Rep warned after the close, the US will hike tariffs to 25% on Chinese imports, the not so veiled geopolitical conflict between the two superpowers which has a far greater chance of mutating into a "kinetic" exchange after China expressed its "strong opposition" on Monday after two US warships sailed near disputed islands in the South China Sea.It was the third time this year that Washington has challenged Beijing’s maritime claims in the region which China has expressly claimed as its national interest, amid escalating rivalry between the two powers.As we reported this morning, guided-missile destroyers USS Preble and USS Chung-Hoon passed within 12 nautical miles of Gaven and Johnson reefs in the Spratly Islands on Monday, Commander Clay Doss, a spokesman for the US Navy’s Seventh Fleet, said according to Reuters. The territory is also claimed by the Philippines, Vietnam and Taiwan. Quoted by the SCMP, Commander Doss said the move aimed to assert international rights to “innocent passage” and “challenge excessive maritime claims” in accordance with international law, although Beijing hardly saw the latest US intervention in Chinese backwaters as "innocent." The incident was the third time this year that the US has conducted so-called freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea, compared to five publicly reported passages last year and four in 2017. Predictably, with Trump set to pull the plug on a trade deal between Washington and Beijing, the move drew criticism from Beijing, with the foreign ministry calling for the US to end the provocation.

Trump trade war 2.0 is Asia’s nightmare - Robert Mueller’s report on Russian meddling isn’t the bestseller in Asia it is in the US. But its fallout is written between the lines in bold font as Asian punters run for cover.The threat posed by special counsel Mueller’s report is dawning on Donald Trump. The spike in impeachment talk in Washington is almost perfectly correlated with the US president’s Twitter tirades.And now, it appears to have Trump lashing out overseas – from Venezuela to Iran to China.Oil markets are gyrating over hints from John Bolton, Trump’s trigger-happy national security advisor, of military dramas to come in Caracas and Tehran. But tangible actions are already slapping Asian bourses around.Case in point: an imminent boost in tariffs on Chinese goods. A week ago, the Trump crowd was all optimism and celebratory bluster. The spin was that a 12-month brawl with Beijing was ending, imparting a risk-on vibe in world markets. Now, Trump threatens to hike the current 10% levies on US$200 billion of Chinese goods to 25% Friday. He’s also talking about targeting an additional $325 billion of goods “shortly.” “This has all the makings of a complete disaster that could lead the stock market to crater this week and send those external risks to the US economic outlook soaring,” warns economist Chris Rupkey of MUFG Union Bank.

North Korea Launches Second Ballistic Missile In Less Than A Week - For the second time in just under a week, North Korea has fired at least one "unidentified projectile", according to South Korean military sources cited by American media.According to CNN, the launch occurred at 4:30 pm local time on Thursday. The projectiles were launched from a missile facility in the Sino-ri area, situated in one of the North's western provinces. The launch site was about 50 miles northwest of Pyongyang.The launch of the short-range 'projectiles' followed Saturday morning's launch of short-range missiles that analysts said resembled the Russian Iskander-class ballistic missiles. Sino-ri is home to about one of an estimated 20 undeclared North Korean missile bases.Analysts quoted in the New York Times warned that the 'projectiles' fired by North Korea on Thursday might be capable of carrying nuclear warheads.The North’s missile base in Sino-ri is believed to operate Rodong short- and medium-range ballistic missiles. Some Western missile experts say the Sino-ri base may have played a role in the development of the North’s Pukguksong-2 ballistic missile, which was first tested in February 2017. Unlike most of the North Korean ballistic missiles, the Pukguksong-2 uses solid fuel, making it easier to transport and hide and faster to launch."The Sino-ri missile operating base and the Rodong missiles deployed at this location fit into North Korea’s presumed nuclear military strategy by providing an operational-level nuclear or conventional first-strike capability against targets located both throughout the Korean Peninsula and in most of Japan," analysts of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank, said in a paper in January. Others had warned earlier this week that North Korea's previous launch - its first missile launch since late 2017 - appeared to be an act of frustration, and stopped just short of violating Kim's promise to the US. The series of provocative short-range missile launches are happening just weeks after talks between Kim and President Trump collapsed during a second US-NK summit. Also notable: Thursday's launch was carried out while Stephen Biegun, President Trump’s point man on North Korea, was in Seoul for talks with South Korean officials on how to bring North Korea back to the negotiating table. But with trade-war tensions between Washington and Beijing at a breaking point, we can't help but wonder if Kim got 'the tap' from his Chinese benefactors, who could greatly benefit from this distraction.

Kim Says Latest North Korea Launch Was "Long-Range Strike" Drill --North Korean state media is reporting that what was previously reported as "two short-range missile tests" by South Korea were actually long-range tests, which came on the same day US authorities seized a North Korean ship used to sell coal in violation of international sanctions.  State media announced early Friday (local time): "At the command post, Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un learned about a plan of the strike drill of various long-range strike means and gave an order of start of the drill," the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said in English, as reported by Yonhap.  "The successful drill of deployment and strike designed to inspect the ability of rapid reaction of the defense units... showed the might of the units which were fully prepared to proficiently carry out any operation and combat," the report added.Kim stated he ordered the deeply provocative tests because “genuine peace and security of the country are guaranteed only by the strong physical force capable of defending its sovereignty,” KCNA reported.The precise location of the drills is as yet unknown, but South Korea's Yonhap News Agency gave the following details:The KCNA did not elaborate on what "long-range strike" means. But South Korea's military said the North is believed to have launched two short-range missiles [in the prior launch] from its northwestern region into the East Sea, which flew 420 kilometers and 270 km, respectively.Kim has reportedly been angered by the lack of progress in talks with Washington, and also by America's decision to re-start military exercises with South Korea. No doubt, Thursday's seizure of the pariah state's largest coal ship was a factor in this latest (what appears to be) ballistic missile test, the second in under a week.

India’s rural pain goes beyond farmers, and it may be a problem for Modi - From daily wage workers such as masons, to barbers and grocery shop owners - just about everyone in Zadshi village, some 720 km (450 miles) from India’s financial hub Mumbai, says a drop in farm incomes has dented their livelihoods. Their woes are symptomatic of a wider problem across India, where more than half of the country’s 1.3 billion people are dependent on agriculture for their livelihoods, as the slowdown in the rural economy is felt in the dampening sales of consumer goods, especially the biggest such as car and motorbike sales. The slowdown has also dented Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity in the hinterland that propelled him to power in 2014, and political strategists say it may mean he struggles to form a majority after voting in a staggered general election that began on April 11 concludes on May 19. Zadshi has been almost entirely dependent on annual cotton and soybean crops that, according to farmers, have given lacklustre returns in the past few years due to a dip in prices, droughts and pest attacks. And as incomes have dropped, farmers have cut back on big-ticket spending such as building new houses, digging wells or laying water pipelines, squeezing employment opportunities for people such as Bhandkekar.

 Sri Lanka Expels 200 Islamic Clerics Following Deadly Easter Attacks -- Sri Lanka has expelled more than 600 foreign nationals, including approximately 200 Islamic clerics since the Easter suicide bombings at three churches and three luxury hotels that killed 257 people and wounded nearly 500.  The attacks were led by a local Islamic cleric known to have traveled to India where he made contact with jihadis.  Home Affairs Minister Vajira Abeywardena said the clerics had entered the country legally, but amid a security crackdown after the attacks were found to have overstayed their visas, for which fines were imposed and they were expelled from the island. -Daily Mirror "Considering the current situation in the country, we have reviewed the visas system and took a decision to tighten visa restrictions for religious teachers," said Abeywardena, adding "Out of those who were sent out, about 200 were Islamic preachers."  Police said that many of those expelled include foreigners from Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Maldives who have overstayed their visas.  "There are religious institutions which have been getting down foreign preachers for decades," Abeywardena said. "We have no issues with them, but there are some which mushroomed recently. We will pay more attention to them."  Sri Lanka is overhauling the country's visa police in the wake of the attacks, as authorities now fear that foreign clerics might radicalize locals for future attacks. A state of emergency was imposed after the attacks which give wide powers to police and troops in order to arrest and detain suspects for extended periods.  Authorities have been conducting house-to-house searches for explosives and radical Islamic propaganda.

Venezuela to prosecute lawmakers who backed uprising - Venezuela will prosecute seven lawmakers who backed last week's failed uprising led by opposition leader Juan Guaido, the country's Supreme Court ruled Tuesday, as Washington removed sanctions against Caracas' sacked spy chief for backing the revolt. The court, which announced the ruling in a statement, said it asked Attorney General Tarek William Saab to handle the "criminal investigation" into opposition deputies for "high treason" and "conspiracy." Soon after the announcement, the Constituent Assembly -- which effectively acts as a regime rubber stamp -- stripped the seven lawmakers of their parliamentary immunity."What comes now? A trial," said Constituent Assembly speaker Diosdado Cabello, the regime's second most powerful figure after President Nicolas Maduro. Cabello ominously added that three unnamed other lawmakers had been identified and would undergo the same process.The list includes Henry Ramos Allup, the former speaker of the opposition-controlled National Assembly.Guaido, who is recognized as Venezuela's interim president by more than 50 countries and was himself stripped of his immunity on April 2, denounced the decision.The government's "only response...is to persecute, because they no longer govern, because they no longer have command," he said.

Venezuelan police tow deputy opposition leader Edgar Zambrano to jail in his car Venezuelan security forces have detained opposition leader Juan Guaido's deputy, a week after Mr Guaido tried to spark a military uprising to bring down President Nicolas Maduro's government. Edgar Zambrano, vice-president of the opposition-controlled National Assembly said on Twitter that agents from the SEBIN intelligence agency were using a tow truck to drag his vehicle, with him inside, to one of their Caracas bases. "The regime has kidnapped the first vice president," Mr Guaido said on Twitter. On Tuesday, Venezuela's pro-Maduro Constituent Assembly ruled to strip Mr Zambrano and six other opposition politicians of their parliamentary immunity to allow their future prosecution. Space to play or pause, M to mute, left and right arrows to seek, up and down arrows for volume. The Supreme Court had earlier accused the politicians of conspiracy, rebellion and treason. On Wednesday, the court accused three others of the same crimes. "One of the principal conspirators of the coup has just been arrested," Diosdado Cabello, head of the Constituent Assembly, said in comments broadcast on state television. "They will have to pay before the courts for the failed coup that they attempted." The opposition said Mr Maduro had stacked the court with his own supporters. The United States government this week threatened to sanction all its members.

 Loonie Spikes After Canada Adds The Most Jobs In Its History - Just two weeks after the Canadian central bank pivoted to a dovish stance, slashing growth and inflation expectations, Canada just added 106,500 jobs in April - the biggest monthly gain in labor since records began almost 50 years ago. Putting that number in context, the US labor force is 162MM, Canada's is 20MM, so today's Canadian employment spike is equivalent of almost 900K jobs created in the US in one month.  For some context, this is a 10 sigma beat of expectations...  This was the largest yearly growth in employment since 2007 as youth unemployment rate falls to lowest on record.The immediate result - the algos panic-bid the Loonie... Poloz better get out there asap and jawbone this ridiculous outlier of a jobs print quick! Canada is booming!!

UN- Hungary depriving rejected asylum-seekers of food - The United Nations on Friday said Hungary was deliberately depriving rejected asylum-seekers awaiting deportation of food, in violation of international law."According to reports, since August 2018, at least 21 migrants awaiting deportation had been deprived of food by the Hungarian authorities — some for up to five days," said UN human rights spokeswoman Ravina Shamdasani.Last September, High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet accused Hungary of withholding food from migrants being held in transit zones along its border with Serbia.  The UN rights office said Hungarian authorities had promised to end the practice following an interim ruling by the European Court of Human Rights."However, we regret that, in the absence of a clear change in the legal framework, reports suggest the practice is continuing," Shamdasani said. She said once an asylum application had been denied, all adult migrants, with the exception of pregnant and nursing women, "are deliberately deprived of food."

 Italy And Hungary Forge Alliance To Defend Europe's Borders From Migrant Invasion -  At their talks in Budapest on Thursday, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of the Interior Matteo Salvini agreed on the importance of strong nation states, on the need to give priority in Europe to European culture based on Christian values, and on border defence.  At a joint press conference held with Mr. Salvini – who is also head of the Italian government party Lega – Mr. Orbán said they both believe the following:  there will be no strong Europe without strong and successful nation states; that on the continent priority must be given to European culture based on Christian values;and that “Europe’s borders must be defended against the migrant invasion”.    Speaking about Italy’s response to migration, Viktor Orbán praised Mr. Salvini for “his efforts in achieving on the sea what we have done on land”. He said that the success of these efforts is of crucial importance.Viktor Orbán described Matteo Salvini’s visit to Budapest as an honour, adding that cooperation between the governments of the two countries has reached its highest point so far.  He said that “the citizens of Europe will benefit from listening to Italy and Hungary rather than President Macron.”Viktor Orbán also outlined the Hungarian proposal for the establishment of a new body comprising the interior ministers of the Schengen Area countries. He stated that powers related to migration should be taken away from the European Commission and delegated to such a body.

Madrid court allows exiled Catalans to run in EU election --A Madrid court gave the green light Monday for exiled former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont and two others to run in the European Parliament election.The judges struck down a decision by the Spanish Election Commission, which is independent of the government, to bar Puigdemont and two other former members of the Catalan government from running in the election because they are not residing in Spain. The Supreme Court determined on Sunday that there is no reason the three would be ineligible to run, but kicked the final decision to the Madrid judiciary.All three fled the country in 2017 following a referendum deemed illegal by the Spanish judiciary and a subsequent declaration of independence by the regional parliament. They face arrest if they return to Spain, over their role in the separatist push.The Madrid court said in a statement that “the only reason that a candidate could not run in an election is that they have some cause of ineligibility.” “The only alleged reason of ineligibility was the plaintiffs’ situation of absentia, but as the Supreme Court said, such a situation is not a cause for ineligibility.” Puigdemont welcomed the decision on Twitter as a “victory,” saying that “all this potential will be put to the service of winning causes and projects for all citizens from the European Parliament. Our team knows what is at stake, how to fight and how to win!"

Brexit Party Soars In European Parliament Polls, 9 Points Ahead Of Labour - Mish - Nigel Farage's newly formed Brexit Party is in first place in European Parliament polls, pulling well ahead of Labour.   The Brexit Party Continues to Surge in the polls for the European elections as Change UK fall behind Lib Dems.

• Nigel Farage is continuing to smile after the latest polls for the EU elections continue to show the Brexit Party leading the way.
• Despite only being launched last month, the Brexit Party quickly stormed to the top of the polls - and the latest set of figures show their support has only increased.
• According to YouGov, Mr Farage’s party are now polling on 30% - an increase of 2% from the previous poll.

2,000+ turned out in Newport for the Brexit Party. “This wasn't like party conferences, there was noise, excitement, and the number of selfies and pictures should show the regard supporters hold their candidates in.” https://t.co/xrWPflfql1 — Michael Heaver (@Michael_Heaver) May 2, 2019     The above table represents the official party position. Most Tories (Conservative) do not favor Theresa May's pathetically negotiated withdrawal agreement. Many in the Labour party favor remaining, a referendum, or even leaving. Both the Tories and Labour splintered mightily over Brexit but Labour fared better, at least for now. Change UK is a group of pro-Remain misfits of former Tories and former Labour who left their parties in disputes over Brexit. They have little in common other than a foolish desire to remain in the EU. In the next UK general election, most of the Change UK supporters will be voted out of office. Pro-Brexit Support Support for pro-Brexit parties is seemingly overwhelming 68%. Appearances deceive. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn favors a customs unions, an arrangement even worse than remaining. Unless the EU makes a special deal, a customs union would limit the UK's ability to make trade treaties on it own, tie the UK to many inane EU policies, make the UK pay fees for single market access and give give the UK no say in EU policies.  

Anger grows at May-Corbyn bid to stitch up Brexit deal - Last-ditch efforts by Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn to strike a compromise on Brexit looked doomed on Saturday as the party leaders faced mounting revolts from their own MPs and activists. Following Thursday’s local elections, in which both the Conservatives and Labour were punished severely by voters for failing to break the political deadlock, May and Corbyn have insisted their parties must now urgently agree a way forward in cross-party talks which will resume on Tuesday. On Saturday the prime minister reiterated her appeal, saying: “We have to find a way to break the deadlock. I believe the results of the local elections give fresh urgency to this.” But opposition MPs and Tory Brexiters warned any deal the leadership teams stitch up behind the scenes would face inevitable defeat in parliament and cause more acrimony in the parties. The Observer can reveal that 104 opposition MPs, mainly from Labour but also SNP, Change UK, Green and Plaid Cymru, have written to May and Corbyn insisting they will not back a “Westminster stitch-up” unless there is a firm guarantee that any deal is then put to a confirmatory referendum. The MPs say: “The very worst thing we could do at this time is a Westminster stitch-up whether over the PM’s deal or another deal. This risks alienating both those who voted leave in 2016 and those who voted remain.” They say that, “whatever the deal” is, it must be the subject of another referendum so voters can have the “final say”. Separately, senior Tory MPs insisted that any deal struck with Labour that involved anything close to a customs union – Corbyn’s central demand in the talks – would be rejected by more than 100 of the party’s MPs, who would see it as a betrayal of May’s promises on Brexit. Nigel Evans, executive secretary of the 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers, said: “If there is a compromise that turns out to be a kind of ‘Brexit in name only’ involving anything close to a customs union there would be more than 100 Tory MPs who would never support it, particularly following the local elections.”

Brexit: negativity - It's got to the point where there is nothing that any politician (or legacy media pundit, for that matter) can say about Brexit has any meaning or relevance. It's just noise, endless noise which clutters the mind but conveys no useful information. Doubtless, I'm not alone in this. Nevertheless, there is also a sort of oppressive feeling in the air, as if a storm is about to break. Mainly, that's because the Conservatives are working themselves into a tizzy over the putative "deal" between Mrs May and Jeremy Corbyn, which could come to fruition as early as next week. The two sides are said to be "within touching distance". When it happens, it'll happen – if it does. Then it'll be worth looking at. But there is a limit to how much one can speculate when all that involves is recycling the same bundle of possibilities that hasn't changed for weeks. Politics has never been so important, but has never seemed so dull. One can't even get excited – or even interested – in the prospect of a Tory leadership fight. Here, a possible scenario is that May and Corbyn do their deal, parliament approves it and we are on our way out of the EU with the Withdrawal Agreement in place. Mrs May resigns and the bloodletting starts. The trouble here is that there is no successor of any consequence on the horizon – just a succession of drab nonentities, with the potential nightmare of the oaf becoming prime minister. If there was ever a time for a directly elected prime minister it is now. We should no longer accept the governing party using the highest political office in the land as its own personal plaything. Alternatively, there is the possibility of the Tory party splitting, whence we see a general election. I'm not sure whether that is supposed to happen before or after the May/Corbyn deal, but it's been on the cards so long, it has become part of the political furniture. If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well it were done quickly.

Brexit: retreat to the bunker  - Things are getting serious. The tempo of the May/Corbyn tryst is speeding up – and the details are leaking. Supposedly, the prime minister is prepared to offer concessions to make it all happen, starting with a temporary customs "arrangement". Her second concession is to agree to maintain regulatory alignment with the EU on goods, to maintain some sort of access to the Single Market and, for her third trick, she will guarantee to uphold the EU's package of workers' rights. The customs "arrangement" – by which is probably meant a customs union - would last until the general election, whence the Tories and Labour would set out their competing visions for the next round of negotiations and each go their separate ways. Needless to say, there is a significant group of Labour MPs who dislike this, alongside an unspecified number of Tories, who have their own reasons for opposing it. The outcome then is a matter of arithmetic – whether there will be enough loyalists on either side to outnumber the rebels. The shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, is said to be extremely unhappy about the temporary customs plan, dismissing the cross-party talks as like "trying to enter a contract with a company going into administration" – an allusion to the internal strife in the Conservative Party, which could mean that Mrs May won't be leader long enough to deliver on her promises. Apart from that, not a lot has changed since yesterday, or the day before that, and the day before that. Those MPs who are working up to dislike anything on offer, will have their rejections standing by, while the ebb and flow of sentiment keeps everyone on tenterhooks and the legacy media in business, with plenty on which to speculate.

Northern Ireland local elections: smaller parties make gains - Northern Ireland wants to move away from “them-and-us” politics, the leader of the Greens said after her party made significant gains in the local elections. The party won four seats on Belfast city council, including holding one gained in 2014. The centrist Alliance party also made gains in Belfast, going from eight to 10 seats. The Green party leader, Clare Bailey, said she felt “overwhelmed” by the success. “People have really come out and supported us, they have shown us by their vote that they really want to make the change and our conversations at the door have really resonated; climate change and climate chaos right at the front of the arguments,” she said. “So regardless of our traditional cultural identities, the them-and-us politics, what we really need to be looking at is how we all mitigate against climate change, and that message is just being understood on the doors and over the last few days we are seeing that result coming in. It’s phenomenal.” With all first preference votes now counted, the Alliance and Green parties, along with other small parties and independents, showed clear gains. The Alliance, a cross-community party that is the minnow of the five main Stormont parties, more than doubled its 2014 showing by achieving 11.5%, boosting its presence on councils across Northern Ireland. People Before Profit, a left-wing group, won 1.4%, four times more than its previous share

Senior Labour strategist warns against a shift to Remain after the local elections Labour’s campaigns chief has rejected the idea that disappointing local election results last week showed his party must embrace what he called “‘stop Brexit’ simplicity”.As senior Labour figures prepare to resume Brexit talks with Conservative ministers on Tuesday, Andrew Gwynne warned against a further shift towards remain.“On Brexit, what Labour is trying to achieve is much harder and more complex than those who say we need to simply swing behind remain admit,” he wrote in the Guardian. “It would be the easiest option and perhaps superficially give us a short-term boost, but we are a national party seeking support from people all over the county, unlike the ‘leave means leave’ charade of the Tories and Nigel Farage, or the ‘stop Brexit’ simplicity of the smaller parties.”He pointed out that all of the 21 councils in which Labour lost five or more seats were in heavily leave-voting areas. “The talk about another referendum was a difficult message to explain to many of our traditional voters.”Theresa May’s negotiating team, led by David Lidington, is widely expected tomake a compromise offer to Labour when talks resume on Tuesday afternoon, after government sources said Downing Street had set a deadline of the middle of this week to make progress. Ministers are keen to introduce the withdrawal act implementation bill in the coming days so that it stands a chance of becoming law in time for Britain to leave the EU by the end of June. That would mean MEPs elected in what is expected to be a bruising European parliamentary campaign never have to take up their seats.

Brexit: Theresa May warned more than 100 Tories could block compromise deal with Labour Theresa May is facing opposition on all sides over her efforts to strike a Brexit deal with Labour amid warnings that more than 100 Tory MPs could block a compromise agreement. Cross-party negotiations will resume on Tuesday after a furious backlash at weekend reports that Ms May is poised to offer Labour a temporary customs arrangement with the EU to break the deadlock. Senior Labour figures cast doubt on the prospect of progress, as it emerged that two-thirds of Labour MPs would demand a second referendum as part of their conditions for supporting any Brexit deal agreed with the government.And Tory MPs urged Ms May not to cave into Labour's demands as they believe a softer Brexit deal would fail to command the support of the Commons. Nigel Evans, a member of the influential 1922 Committee, said: "If there is a compromise that turns out to be a kind of ‘Brexit in name only’ involving anything close to a customs union, there would be more than 100 Tory MPs who would never support it.”A string of Commons defeats on Brexit proved the prime minister "did not have room to move here", he told the BBC's Pienaar's Politics. Tory MP Lee Rowley tweeted: "My message to Theresa May (checked with thousands of residents on the doorsteps in the only place where we gained a council directly from Lab on Thurs): stop this madness. "People didn’t vote for you to do a deal with a Marxist. Fix the backstop and stop wasting time."

Tory MPs ‘will move to oust Theresa May this week’ if she agrees Brexit deal with Labour - Theresa May has been warned her MPs will begin moves to oust her as soon as this week if she agrees a Brexit deal with Labour.The Prime Minister wants to sign off an agreement with Jeremy Corbynon Tuesday in order to avoid having to send new MEPs to the European Parliament, but there is little appetite for a cross-party deal among her own backbenchers.Rivals in the race to succeed Mrs May are on a state of high alert in case a compromise deal with Labour becomes the trigger for a leadership election.Senior sources within the Conservative Party said on Monday that Mrs May will be “gone very quickly” if she moves towards Labour’s demands for a post-Brexit customs union with the EU.It comes as Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 Committee of backbench Tory MPs, prepares to meet Mrs May t o give her the choice of setting her own timetable for leaving office or having it set for her by her Party. Separately, Andrew Sharpe, chairman of the grassroots National Conservative Convention, will announce that an Extraordinary General Meeting will be held on June 15 to allow its 800 members to hold an unprecedented confidence vote in Mrs May.The result of the vote will not be binding but will increase pressure on Mrs May to quit if it goes against her.But many backbench MPs want to begin the process of toppling Mrs May much sooner than that. A senior minister told the Telegraph: “People are waiting to see what this deal is, if it happens. That will be the decision point for a lot of MPs when it comes to deciding the Prime Minister’s future.

Backbench Tory MPs hopeful of rule change to oust Theresa May Theresa May’s future as prime minister is hanging in the balance as Brexit-supporting members of the 1922 Committee believe they are close to securing enough support for another attempt to oust her. Members of the Conservative backbench group of MPs will meet again on Wednesday to decide whether to change the party’s rules to permit another challenge to her leadership within weeks, after the last vote narrowly went in her favour by nine to seven. She is currently protected by guidelines that say she cannot face another challenge from Tory MPs within 12 months of the previous no-confidence vote, which she won in December. However, more members of the committee are thinking of backing a rule change if she does not commit to setting out a timetable for her departure, after a meeting with Sir Graham Brady, the chair of the committee. Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, treasurer of the 1922 Committee, said on Tuesday that May must announce a “road map” for her resignation after the European elections set for 23 May. Another member of the committee said of the prime minister’s departure: “We want certainty for an orderly and timely exit with or without a deal – and the can cannot be kicked down the road until October.” Brady had no comment but he was expected to convey the range of views of committee members to the prime minister. Brexit-supporting members of the committee are pushing for a contest to take place as soon as possible, with MPs agreeing a shortlist of two candidates before the summer recess and then Tory activists voting over the holiday period. However, the committee is not unanimous in its backing for a change to the rules. Some members – even some who want May to resign – are nervous that it could look bad to alter party procedures solely with a view to ousting the prime minister. Others are worried that changing the leader without Brexit being decided one way or another could cause more problems than it solves, when parliament remains deadlocked.

Brexit: Stuck - Yves Smith -Has Brexit gone so far down the rabbit hole of UK party politics that there is no coming out the other side? Brexit is fracturing the UK’s leading parties, yet there doesn’t seem to be any way for the UK to move forward with the project, nor does there seem to be any politically viable path for the UK to back out by revoking Article 50. The local elections exposed not only massive dissatisfaction with the Tories, but unhappiness with Labour too. With both major parties losing support because neither one can come up with a position on Brexit that will bridge the significant differences among their members, the UK is becoming even less capable of negotiating credibly or competently with the EU. Thanks to the EU Parliament elections, Nigel Farage is baack…giving Leave extremism a new lease on life. Determined minorities often punch above their weight. Look at the gun lobby and the anti-abortionists in the US. Farage is a mediagenic fount of plausible-sounding but wrongheaded Brexit soundbites. The UK press and public already believe too many false things on the topic of Brexit, and Farage will make sure they take up even more bad ideas. As Chris Grey put it last week:  With the launch of the Brexit Party, a profoundly dangerous and dishonest argument – which has been doing the rounds in Brexiter circles virtually since they won the Referendum – is now being advanced with renewed and growing vigour. Its strength is its simplicity, indeed at the moment it is the entirety of the new party’s pitch: Brexit has been betrayed and democracy thwarted by a remainer parliament and a remainer Prime Minister. It’s a claim which is also, of course, made ad nauseam by Tory Brexiters, and seems to account at least in part for Labour’s continuing Brexit muddle. Judging by current opinion polls, this argument resonates with, at least, 27% of voters, and probably represents the hard core of the Brexit vote, and consists of people who, most likely, are impervious to any arguments against the ‘democracy betrayed’ argument. Even if the Brexit Party fails to attract more hard-core Brexit supporters, it will re-energize that faction. And since the press loves conflict, these radicals are likely to get more than their fair share of air time. The press and MPs continue to appear utterly confused about timing and process. All the debate about a customs union, labor rights, and other hard v. soft Brexit issues are moot until the UK passes the Withdrawal Agreement. Those issues come under the non-binding Political Declaration and won’t be negotiated in any detail or seriousness until the UK is out of the EU, as in has entered into the transition period. When May is finally displaced, which will happen by this December at the latest, there’s no reason to think that even any positions staked out in the Political Declaration will stick.And also recall another point made only very intermittently in Brexit commentary…if you thought the EU played the UK during the Withdrawal Agreement negotiations, you ain’t seen nuthin’ yet. The post-transition trade deal will be vastly more complex and hard fought.Again, to stress what ought to be obvious, no passage of the Withdrawal Agreement, no going forward. The EU has made clear it’s not ceding ground on the backstop. So despite all of the chatter among MPs about Norway and a customs union and other bright-sounding ideas for preserving frictionless trade, the UK will remain in a Brexit zombie state until it approves the Withdrawal Agreement.

Perhaps It’s Time to Start Worrying About Global Corporate Debt, Suggests Bank of England -- Since the global financial crisis, the total value of outstanding corporate bonds has doubled, from around $37 trillion in 2008 to over $75 trillion today. But the growth has been far from even, with non-financial debt growing much more rapidly in certain jurisdictions. As the volume and price of this debt has grown, so too has its riskiness. And that could be a recipe for disaster, warns Sir John Cunliffe, deputy governor for financial stability at the Bank of England.In the US, non-financial debt is up 40% on the last peak in 2008. Cunliffe expressed even greater caution concerning emerging markets, where corporate debt as a proportion of the global debt pile has grown the most over the past 10 years. “Emerging market debt now accounts for over a quarter of the global total compared to an eighth before the crisis,” Cunliffe said.Before the financial crisis, emerging market companies were issuing a total of $70 billion per year in bonds, according to OECD data. That was before the world’s biggest central banks embarked on the world’s biggest monetary experiment, in which companies the world over were invited to participate.By 2016, emerging market corporations were issuing ten times more money ($711 billion) than before, much of it in hard foreign currencies (mainly euros, dollars and yen) that will prove much harder to pay back if their local currency slides, as is happening in Turkey and Argentina right now. Although bond issuance by emerging market companies declined by 29% in 2017 and remained around the same level in 2018, it is still approximately 7.5 times higher than the pre-crisis level. Much of the increase has been driven by China as it transitioned from a negligible level of issuance of corporate debt prior to the 2008 crisis to a record issuance amount of $590 billion in 2016. During that time the number of Chinese companies issuing bonds soared from just 68 to a peak of 1,451 and the total amount of corporate debt in China exploded from $4 trillion to almost $17 trillion, according to BIS data. By late 2018 it had reached $19.7 trillion.   The largest increases have been in the corporate sector, mainly in state-owned enterprises. At last count, China’s corporate debt-to-GDP ratio was 153%, enough to earn it seventh place on WOLF STREET’sleaderboard of countries with the most monstrous corporate debt pileups (as a proportion of GDP), 18 places above the US. This chart compares the rise of non-financial corporate debt in China and the US: