week ending Jun 8

 Powell says the Fed will ‘act as appropriate to sustain the expansion’ - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank is watching current economic developments and will do what it must to keep the near-record expansion going. Financial markets have been nervous lately over an escalating trade war that has spread from China and now could include Mexico. At the same, government bond yields are behaving in a way that in the past has been a reliable recession indicator. Powell began a speech Tuesday in Chicago by addressing “recent developments involving trade negotiations and other matters.” “We do not know how or when these issues will be resolved,” he said in prepared remarks. “We are closely monitoring the implications of these developments for the U.S. economic outlook and, as always, we will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near our symmetric 2 percent objective.” Powell’s comments came at the “Conference on Monetary Strategy, Tools and Communications Practices,” a kickoff for an examination the Fed is conducting this year about the tools it has to meet its goals as well as the way it is communicating its actions to the public. He did not address any other specific issues relating to current conditions. Market are broadly expecting the policymaking Federal Open Market Committee to cut its benchmark rate twice before the end of the year in response to current conditions. For his part, Powell has stuck to the position that the Fed remains data dependent. The most recent FOMC statement, from its May meeting, indicated that the committee is taking a patient stance toward policy changes at conditions evolve.

  Dollar Dumps After Fed's Bullard Suggests Rate-Cuts Soon -- St.Louis Fed head Jim Bullard unleashed the beast this morning in a Q&A but daring to admit that a rate-cut may be warranted soon to lift inflation. “A downward policy rate adjustment may be warranted soon to help re-center inflation and inflation expectations at target and also to provide some insurance in case of a sharper-than-expected slowdown... The direct effects of trade restrictions on the U.S. economy are relatively small, but the effects through global financial markets may be larger... “Even if the sharper-than-expected slowdown does not materialize, a rate cut would only mean that inflation and inflation expectations return to target more rapidly." Having rallied up to unchanged at the open, before plunging, US stocks are ramping off the lows... And the dollar is getting dumped... Bullard’s comments mark the first time a Fed official has publicly suggested the need for a rate cut since the central bank put rates on hold in January, according to Bloomberg. And do not forget that the market is already priced for 3 rate cuts before the end of 2020... But, what Mr. Bullards seems to forget is that the last three recessions all took place with 3 months of the first rate cut after a hiking cycle!

 Beige Book Signals Modest Improvement In US Economy - Back in April, the Fed downgraded its assessment of the US economy through its Beige Book surveys, characterizing the economic growth as only "slight-to-moderate." Now, in the latest Beige Book release, published moments ago, the Fed signaled a "slight improvement" in the economy, describing economic activity expanding at a "modest pace overall" from April through mid-May, and dropping the "slight" classifier. Almost all Districts reported some growth, indicating they're handling the headwinds to the economy well, including the tariffs and a lack of available workers, while a few saw moderate gains in activity. Manufacturing reports were generally positive, but some Districts noted signs of slowing activity and a more uncertain outlook among contacts. Residential construction and real estate both showed overall growth, but both sectors saw wide variation in sentiment across Districts. Reports on consumer spending were generally positive but tempered. Tourism activity was stronger, especially in the Southeast, but vehicle sales were lower, according to reporting Districts. Loan demand was mixed but indicated growth.  Agricultural conditions remained weak overall, but a few Districts reported some improvements. The outlook for the coming months was solidly positive but modest, with little variation among reporting Districts.Most districts saw modest or moderate growth in jobs and wages, though regions including Richmond and San Francisco cited difficulties finding workers or highlighted tight conditions. Wage pressures remained “relatively subdued” with some employers boosting benefits, contrary to widespread reports of continued labor shortages.Inflation remained non-existent, at least according to the Fed, with overall prices increasing at a "modest pace" in most districts since the previous report. While several districts noted faster growth in input prices than in final selling prices, firms generally reported input cost increases in the modest-to-moderate range indicating that so far American consumers are not paying for the trade war with China. What is perhaps most surprising is that the various regional Feds did not paint a gloomier economic picture in response to escalating trade war fears and rising tariffs. Even so, after three consecutive Beige Books in which "tariffs" saw few references, the latest report saw a doubling in the use of "tariffs", although variants of the phrase "slow" surprising declined from 38 in April to just 26, from a recent high of 65 in January.

Fed's Beige Book: Economic Growth "Modest", Labor Market "Tight" -- Fed's Beige Book "This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis based on information collected on or before May 24, 2019."Economic activity expanded at a modest pace overall from April through mid-May, a slight improvement over the previous period. Almost all Districts reported some growth, and a few saw moderate gains in activity. Manufacturing reports were generally positive, but some Districts noted signs of slowing activity and a more uncertain outlook among contacts. Residential construction and real estate both showed overall growth, but both sectors saw wide variation in sentiment across Districts. Reports on consumer spending were generally positive but tempered. Tourism activity was stronger, especially in the Southeast, but vehicle sales were lower, according to reporting Districts. Loan demand was mixed but indicated growth. Agricultural conditions remained weak overall, but a few Districts reported some improvements.  Employment continued to increase nationwide, with most Districts reporting modest or moderate job growth and others reporting slight growth, an assessment similar to the previous reporting period. Solid hiring demand was noted for retail, business services, technical, manufacturing, and construction jobs and by staffing agencies in general. However, stronger employment growth continued to be constrained by tight labor markets, with Districts citing shortages of both high- and low-skill workers. Competition for workers reportedly applied some wage pressures across a wide range of occupations and induced improvements in benefits to attract more workers and to improve retention of existing employees, according to several Districts. However,overall wage pressures remained relatively subdued given low unemployment rates; a majority of Districts reported modest or moderate wage growth.

 Q2 GDP Forecasts: 1% to 2% range --From Merrill Lynch: The data added 0.2pp to 2Q GDP tracking up to 2.1% qoq saar, while 1Q remained at 3.2% [June 6 estimate].   From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.0% for 2019:Q2 and 1.3% for 2019:Q3. [June 7 estimate].  And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNowThe GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in thesecond quarter of 2019 is 1.4 percent on June 7, down from 1.5 percent on June 6. The nowcast of second-quarter real government expenditures growth decreased from 2.0 percent to 1.7 percent after this morning's employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. [June 7 estimate]CR Note: These early estimates suggest real GDP growth will be in the 1% to 2% range annualized in Q2.

Warnings mount that trade war could bring recession - The deepening economic confrontation between the US and China has been joined by the Trump administration’s decision to impose tariffs on Mexican goods, rising from 5 percent this month to 25 percent by October, on the demand that it take action to cut the flow of immigrants and refugees into the US. This has brought a series of warnings from Wall Street analysts of the consequences for financial markets and the economy more broadly. Morgan Stanley recently warned that a global recession could start within nine months if the Trump administration goes ahead with its threat to impose a 25 percent tariff on an additional $300 billion worth of Chinese goods and Beijing launches retaliatory action. In a separate analysis, JPMorgan Chase said the probability of a US recession in the second half of this year had risen to 40 percent from 25 percent a month ago. In a report to investors, Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley’s chief economist, wrote that markets were underestimating the impact of the trade conflict. “Investors are generally of the view that the trade dispute could drag on for longer, but they appear to be overlooking its potential impact on the global macro outlook.” These views were echoed by John Normand of JPMorgan Chase in London. He wrote: “The move down in markets over the past month is all about trade war, but I don’t think this is fully in the price. The economic data were weakening before tariffs went up so we’ve yet to see the economic consequences of trade.” Manufacturing figures from May showed weakness across Asia and Europe, which underscored the global ramifications of the conflict between the US and China, he noted. Manufacturing in the US is slowing markedly. The Wall Street Journal reported Monday that US factories “are on track for their weakest showing this year since 2016.” It continued: “Manufacturing job growth has stalled since late last year and output has fallen in three of the past four months as demand for business equipment and commodities weakens in the US and abroad.” In addition, orders for durable goods were down 0.1 percent in April from a year earlier, the first year-to-year decline since 2017.

How Long Does The Yield Curve Have To Be Inverted Before A Recession? - Today's furious stock market short squeeze notwithstanding, the US 10Y Treasury and the yield curve has barely budged, and the result is a yield curve that remains deeply inverted. This, of course, is a problem because as we have noted on various occasions in the past, a yield curve inversion has always preceded a downturn and/or a market crash. The one variable is the lead time between inversion and the actual recession, which has varied significantly, making it an unreliable indicator in timing recessions. Additionally, a look back at the historical record reveals that there are two usually is a sustained inversion and multiple cases spells of inversion prior to the past 5 recessions, as the following BofA table shows: Here is what the pre-recessionary empirical data reveal: the longest streak lasted 120 days for the 3mo/10yr curve and 208 days for the 2yr/10yr curve and there have usually been 4 inversions for each curve measure prior to a recession, on average, according to a recent Bank of America analysis. Also the total number of days the curve is inverted is quite high: on average, the 3mo/10yr curve inverted 181 days and the 2yr/10yr curve inverted 247 days prior to a recession. So where are we now? According to Bank of America, when compared to history, the current inversion episode is still far from getting a strong signal from the bond market that a downturn is around the corner: So far, the 3mo/10yr curve has been inverted for a total of 13days (through June 4th) while the 2yr/10yr curve has yet to invert through the current cycle. The latest flattening of the yield curve is likely a reflection of early market concerns around a slowing economy and the latest round of US-China trade tensions.

 MIT economist Simon Johnson wants to ramp up federal investment on science and technology—and make sure taxpayers get a cash dividend in return -- There is no shortage of creativity in the American economy—as long as we get away from the myth that denigrates public investments and puts private business on a pedestal.  That’s the message from MIT Sloan Economist Simon Johnson’s new book, “Jump-Starting America: How Breakthrough Science Can Revive Economic Growth and the American Dream,” which he presented during atalk and Q&A here at EPI this week.  Johnson, in a book co-authored with his colleague Jonathan Gruber, traces the history of America’s rapid economic ascent after World War II in part to heavy doses of public spending and incentives for scientific discovery and technological innovation.  He says the government’s abandonment of this commitment has not only chipped away at America’s economic and cultural leadership globally but also cost workers and firms enormously in terms of lost productivity, wages, and profits.  Johnson highlighted a decline in federal spending on research and development from a 1964 peak of 2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) to just 0.7 percent today.  “Converted to the same fraction of GDP today, that decline represents roughly $240 billion per year that we no longer spend on creating the next generation of good jobs,” Gruber and Johnson write in the book.The authors offer a number of creative solutions to the problems they identify.First, they would like to return research and development spending to its 1983 level, around 1.2 percent of GDP, which would amount to $100 billion per year.Second, Gruber and Johnson propose flipping the Amazon headquarters’ totally lopsided and unproductive bidding process on its head, using federal funds and an independent commission to identify dozens of metropolitan areas ripe for large-scale science and tech spending.Third, in order to ensure the benefits o f productivity growth, which have accrued primarily to the very rich in recent decades (see chart below), are broadly shared, they call for the introduction of an “innovation dividend.” This would be a regular cash payment offering returns on the initial public investments directly to the taxpayers that ultimately funded them. “Let’s aim to create a cash transfer for Americans based on, we argue, the real estate appreciation that will come from the creation of these new jobs,” Johnson said during his EPI book talk.

 A 600-Page Textbook About Modern Monetary Theory Has Sold Out -- If book sales are any guide, then Modern Monetary Theory is gaining traction. The unorthodox doctrine, which says governments have spare capacity to borrow and spend, has won attention on Wall Street and enemies (as well as a few friends) in Washington. Now, it’s trying to break into academia. And it’s off to a good start. The first MMT textbook, a 600-page volume titled “Macroeconomics’’ and aimed at college students, has sold out of its initial print run, according to publisher Macmillan –- about two months after the launch party in London. Macmillan didn’t specify how many copies it printed. But it said more are on the way. “I knew there was pent-up demand,’’ said Bill Mitchell, one of the book’s authors and an economist at the University of Newcastle, Australia, in an interview. His co-writers are Randall Wray, of Bard College in New York state, and Martin Watts, also of Newcastle. MMT argues that governments in control of their own currencies, like the U.S. and Japan, aren’t constrained in the ways standard economics says they are. They may risk stoking inflation or running out of resources if they spend too much -- but they can’t go broke. The doctrine was developed over about three decades by Mitchell, Wray and a handful of others –- and largely ignored for most of that time. But this year, it has burst into the mainstream. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez played a big part in its breakout, when she invoked MMT as a way to help pay for a Green New Deal. The New York congresswoman has even popped up on social media holding a copy of the new book. The goal is for universities and colleges to integrate the textbook into economic theory classes, said Philip Rees, a marketing manager at Macmillan. “We took a bit of a risk, as a mainstream publisher,’’ he said in an interview in March. “The heterodox approach to economics, that’s maybe 10% of academics.’’ But, with contenders for next year’s U.S. presidential election promising radical new approaches, “the timing, we feel, is perfect.’’

 JAPAN DOES MMT? -- L. Randall Wray - Japan is the perfect case to demonstrate that all of mainstream theory and policy is wrong. And that it is the best example of a country that always chooses the anti-MMT policy response to every ill that ails the country. Reporters find that shocking. Biggest government fiscal deficits in the developed country world? Check. Highest government debt ratios in the developed country world? Check. Isn’t that what MMT advises? No. Nay, it is the perfect demonstration that all the mainstream bogeymen are false: big deficits cause inflation? No. Japan’s inflation runs just above zero. (See graphhttps://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Growing-Modern-Monetary-Theory-debate-rattles-Japan-officials.) Big debts cause high interest rates? No. Japan’s policy rate is about -0.10 (negative rates). Big debts cause bond vigilante strikes? No. Japan’s government debt is hoovered up as fast as it can be issued. (All the more true with the BOJ running QE and creating a “scarcity” in spite of the quadrillions of yen debt available.) Critics of MMT counter that Japan is “proof” that big deficits kill investment and growth.  Well, it is true that Japan has been growing at just 1% per year—certainly nothing to write home about. However, investment grows at about a 2% pace, but is pulled down by lack of consumption growth—which has averaged just about zero over the past few years. Yet, unemployment clocks in at only 3%–in spite of slow growth—as the labor force shrinks due to an aging population. Per capita GDP has been stuck at about $38,000 for years (not so bad, but not growing). And Japan’s current account surplus has surged from under 1% to 4% of GDP over the past few years (considered to be good by most commentators). From the MMT perspective, what Japan needs is a good fiscal stimulus, albeit one that is targeted.[i] Japan has three “injections” into the economy: the fiscal deficit (which has fallen from 7% of GDP to about 5% over the past few years—still a substantial injection), the current account surplus, and private investment. But what it needs is stronger growth of domestic consumer demand—which would also stimulate investment directed to home consumption. So fiscal policy ought to be targeted to spending that would increase economic security of Japanese households to the point that they’d increase consumer spending.

 Is Bolton Trashing Yet Another Arms Control Agreement? - There's been a lot of verbiage lately about the alleged nuclear threat emanating from Russia, often citing Russian President Vladimir Putin's March 1, 2018 address to the Federal Assembly as proof of Russia's malignant intentions. Mark Schneider, an analyst with the National Institute for Public Policy, writing in Real Clear Defense on May 30 went so far as to claim that Russia threatens pre-emptive nuclear attack on the US. The day before Schneider's piece appeared, Lt. Gen. Robert Ashley, Jr., the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, appeared at the Hudson Institute to, among other things, accuse Russia of violating the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by carrying out low yield nuclear tests at its facility in Novaya Zemlya in the Arctic (video and a transcript of Ashley's remarks can be found here).   However, as is often the case with such claims, there is less than meets the eye, as was revealed during the question and answer period. The DIA clearly has no evidence that Russia has actually carried out such tests. In response to a question from the moderator, Ashley said "it's just the protocols and our understanding and belief is they are set up in such a way that they are able to operate beyond what would be necessary for a zero-yield. And so the facilities that they're operating have that capacity to operate in something other than zero-yield." Rather than say "we have no evidence they're conducting nuclear testing," he said he was "not willing to affirm that they are actually adhering to that, which is where the U.S. is and how we've operated since the treaty has been in place." Under questioning from the Wall Street Journal's Michael Gordon, Ashley completed the transition from "they're probably testing" to "I believe they have the capability to do that." Michael Krepon, a co-founder of the Stimson Institute, writing in a column in Forbes later that day, warned that Ashley's accusation may actually be a prelude to the U.S. breaking out of yet another arms control agreement, this time, the CTBT. "As a result of General Ashley's statement, it's now open season against the CTBT for those who want to trash another treaty," Krepon writes. He notes that critics of the treaty have already called on trump to "unsign" the treaty–the US signed it in 1997 but the then-Republican controlled US Senate refused to ratify it. "By 'unsigning' the CTBT, Trump would tell the world that the United States is no longer bound to respect the Treaty's obligation not to test nuclear weapons," Krepon reports.

Trump 'Prepared' For Responsibility Of Using Nukes--In a wide-ranging interview with Piers Morgan on Good Morning Britain, President Trump said that he's ready to press the nuclear button if and when the time comes.  When asked if he would negotiate with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani to avoid war, Trump said "Of course. I've said that and he's said that. I know so much about nuclear weapons and I see the horrible damage done. I don't want that."  Morgan then asked Trump if he would press the nuclear button, to which Trump replied: "I think it’s a terrible responsibility but one I’m prepared to handle," adding "I don’t want to have to think about it, but there may be a time when I do have to think about it."  The Daily Mail sums up the rest of the interview, which spanned topics from gun control to climate change.

Iran Slams Pompeo's No Preconditions Talks Offer As More False Word-Play - There were some deeply revealing words exchanged between Iranian and American officials through media statements on Sunday which add further confirmation that last month's seeming build-up to war has cooled; however, it doesn't mean the two sides are to talk anytime soon. By all appearances Tehran has called Washington's bluff over its latest threats of war and is now refusing an "opening" with the White House.  Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif told ABC's "This Week" that mounting US threats and its "economic terrorism" in the form of sanctions have put any hope for restarting nuclear talks with Washington at a greater distance, as Trump's "threats against Iran never work." Zarif said, "Never threaten an Iranian. Try respect. That may work." Zarif's words came as the US administration again extended an open hand for dialogue following Trump's last week's "call me" overture to Iran's leaders, with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also saying on Sunday the White House is willing to talk to Iran "with no preconditions," and urged further for Iran to begin acting like “a normal nation”. However, Pompeo also said sanctions will remain in place — something Tehran has repeatedly said is a non-starter. Asked about comments by Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani on Saturday that Iran might be willing to hold talks if Washington showed it respect, Pompeo said: “We are prepared to engage in a conversation with no pre-conditions. We are ready to sit down.” However, he said Washington would continue to work to “reverse the malign activity” of Iran in the Middle East, citing Tehran’s support to Hezbollah and to the Syrian government. — Reuters

While the world watches Donald Trump, it’s missing what’s really going on with US foreign policy  - Robert Fisk - Our leaders know how to bang the war drums and, by and large, we go along with them. The US threatens Iran with war – so will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz and attack American warships in the Gulf? Israel strikes Iranian targets in Syria after rockets fall on Golan – so does an Arab-Israeli conflict loom closer than at any time since the 1973 conflict? Jared Kushner plans to reveal Trump’s “deal of the century” for peace in the Middle East – but is it dead in the water? Meanwhile the real stories get pushed down the page – or “to the back of the book”, as we journalists used to say.  Take Donald Trump’s desire to furnish Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates with billions of dollars of extra weapons so that they can increase the ferocity of their war in Yemen against the Houthis – whose support from Iran, such as it is, prompts much of the international abuse against the Islamic Republic. French intelligence officers in Washington have apparently discovered that this is no routine request from Riyadh but a desperate appeal to Washington, because so promiscuous has been the Saudis’ use of US munitions against Houthi rebels (and civilians, hospitals, aid centres, schools and wedding parties) that they are running out of bombs, guided and unguided missiles, drone parts and other “precision” arms to be used on one of the poorest countries in the world. Thus when Trump found himself confronted by congress, which wanted to halt the supplies – not least because its members are still very angry about the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi – the destination of the weapons supplies was broadened to include America’s plucky little ally, King Abdullah II of Jordan. Yes, we all missed that bit, didn’t we? We added the words “and Jordan” to the headline, but didn’t ask why. And the munitions will come not from direct sales to the Gulf, with a possible congressional cap of $25m (£19.7m), but from US government military stocks and – so the French suggest – a very large part of these weapons will go to Jordan. Which is very odd, because Jordan is not at war with anyone right now, and is certainly not part of the Saudi “coalition” forces bombing Yemen.So how much of the $8.1 billion worth of missiles, bombs and so on will be sent to Amman? And how much of that will be unloaded from US military aircraft and reloaded onto Saudi military aircraft once the stocks arrive in Jordan? Only one small but traditionally brave little publication, the unputdownable French weekly Le Canard enchaine picked up this story. Its Washington sources have always proved correct in the past, and the whole wretched arms transfer was summed up by the paper as: “Very smart, if not moral, [just] a few trifles for new massacres.”

Why Trump now wants talks with Iran - Pepe Escobar - The great Bilderberg secret of 2019 had to do with why, suddenly, the Trump administration has decided that it wants to talk to Iran “with no preconditions”. It all has to do with the Strait of Hormuz. Blocking the Strait could cut off oil and gas from Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and Iran – 20% of the world’s oil. There has been some debate on whether this could occur – whether the US Fifth Fleet, which is stationed nearby, could stop Tehran doing this and if Iran, which has anti-ship missiles on its territory along the northern border of the Persian Gulf, would go that far. An American source said a series of studies hit President Trump’s desk and caused panic in Washington. These showed that in the case of the Strait of Hormuz being shut down, whatever the reason, Iran has the power to hammer the world financial system, by causing global trade in derivatives to be blown apart. The Bank for International Settlements said last year that the “notional amount outstanding for derivatives contracts” was $542 trillion, although the gross market value was put at just $12.7 trillion. Others suggest it is $1.2 quadrillion or more. An Iranian Navy warship is seen in the Strait of Hormuz on April 30, amid talk that Tehran may block the Strait if relations with the US plunge further. Photo: AFP / Atta Kenare Tehran has not voiced this “nuclear option” openly. And yet General Qasem Soleimani, head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps’ Quds Force and a Pentagon bête noire, evoked it in internal Iranian discussions. The information was duly circulated to France, Britain and Germany, the EU-3 members of the Iran nuclear deal (or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), also causing a panic. Oil derivative specialists know well that if the flow of energy in the Gulf is blocked it could lead to the price of oil reaching $200 a barrel, or much higher over an extended period. Crashing the derivatives market would create an unprecedented global depression. Trump’s former Goldman Sachs Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin should know as much. And Trump himself seems to have given the game away. He’s now on the record essentially saying that Iran has no strategic value to the US. According to the American source: “He really wants a face-saving way to get out of the problem his advisers Bolton and Pompeo got him into. Washington now needs a face-saving way out. Iran is not asking for meetings. The US is.”

Trump administration approved nuclear energy transfers to Saudis after Khashoggi killing - The Trump administration approved the transfer of nuclear energy information to Saudi Arabia on two occasions after the slaying of Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi by agents of the kingdom, according to Senate Democrats. The administration granted the first approval in question Oct. 18, 2018, 16 days after the killing of The Washington Post columnist and Virginia resident at the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul. The second authorization was granted Feb. 18, 2019, three months after the CIA reportedly concluded that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman ordered Khashoggi’s death. “The alarming realization that the Trump Administration signed off on sharing our nuclear know-how with the Saudi regime after it brutally murdered an American resident adds to a disturbing pattern of behavior,” Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., said in a press release. The information, first shared by Kaine in the press release, came from documents provided by the Department of Energy to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Sen. James Risch, R-Idaho, the committee’s chairman, sought information about seven so-called Part 810 authorizations granted to U.S. firms to share nuclear energy information with Saudi Arabia beginning on Dec. 13, 2017. In particular, congressional Democrats and Republicans alike wanted to know whether the administration continued to grant Part 810 authorizations for information sharing with Saudi Arabia after Khashoggi’s slaying. The Department of Energy, which approves Part 810 authorizations along with the State Department, did not immediately return a request for comment. A foreign relations aide for Risch could not immediately be reached to confirm the contents of the letter. A spokesperson for Sen. Robert Menendez, a New Jersey Democrat and the ranking member of the Foreign Relations Committee, confirmed the dates disclosed by Kaine. “This adds to my existing worries about the Administration’s willingness to give Saudi Arabia a free pass, especially after its brutal murder of Jamal Khashogghi,” Menendez said in an email to CNBC. “The fact that we now know two of these transactions took place after the murder makes clear that the Administration is willing to support the Saudis with impunity.”

 Here’s How Trump Bypassed Congress to Sell Weapons to Saudi Arabia -  Schoolchildren in the United States are taught from a young age that a separation of powers is the backbone of American democracy. Last week, however, President Donald Trump threw that civics lesson out the window, declaring an emergency to bypass US lawmakers and green-light an $8bn weapons deal with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo cited recent tensions with Iran to justify pushing the sales through without congressional oversight. Critics have rejected that justification, noting mounting scepticism towards the Trump administration’s claims of an imminent Iranian threat in the Middle East. “It seemed more like a manufactured justification that so far is not sitting well with many members of Congress,” said Christina Arabia, director at the Washington-based Security Assistance Monitor, which tracks US arms sales and military assistance to foreign countries. Indeed, senior lawmakers have vowed to push back against the decision. But the US president holds broad authority, and while the law grants Congress oversight over weapon sales, the administration ultimately has the upper hand.

Saudi Arabia Secretly Purchased Ballistic Missile Technology From China: Report -- Saudi Arabia has “significantly” expanded its ballistic missile programme through recent purchases from China, CNN reported on Wednesday.The purchases expanded both its missile infrastructure and technology, the news agency said, citing three unidentified sources with direct knowledge of the matter.Key Congressional Democrats discovered the weapons expansion programme outside of “regular US government channels”, CNN reported. The legislators told the news agency they concluded the Trump administration had knowledge of the weapons deal and deliberately left Congress out of a series of meetings where they would have been briefed on the purchases. While Saudi Arabia is the US’s top arms buyer, it is barred from purchasing ballistic missiles from Washington under a 1987 regulation that prevents the sale of rockets capable of carrying weapons of mass destruction.The purchases are particularly worrying to a Congress that has been attempting to limit Saudi Arabia’s weapons capabilities for months, amid growing concerns over the devastating Saudi-led war in Yemen.On Wednesday, key US senators from both major parties introduced 22 separate resolutions in an attempt to block arms sales to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The resolutions aim to stop the $8bn sale of weapons to Saudi Arabia pushed through by the Trump administration without congressional oversight late last month.

UAE issues formal request to buy KC-46A tanker, says Boeing – The United Arab Emirates has emerged as a surprise customer for KC-46A Pegasus, having formally made a request to buy the tanker aircraft, according to manufacturer Boeing. Speaking to reporters at a media event on the sidelines of the annual Shangri-La Dialogue regional security summit in Singapore, Jeff Shockey, Boeing’s vice president of global sales for defense, space and security, confirmed that the Middle Eastern kingdom had issued a letter of request for three tankers. The UAE now joins the list of potential markets for the KC-46A, alongside other interested parties such as Indonesia, Israel, Norway, Qatar and NATO. Japan has already joined the U.S. Air Force in selecting the KC-46, with a request for four aircraft approved by the U.S. State Department in 2016 with two having already since been contracted through the Foreign Military Sales program. The UAE’s request to buy the KC-46A is a surprise, given it currently already operates three Airbus A330 multirole tanker transports. It currently operates about 150 Lockheed Martin F-16E/F Fighting Falcon and French-built Dassault Mirage 2000 fighter jets.

Amazon Offered Job to Pentagon Official Involved With $10 Billion Contract It Sought -IN A FEDERAL lawsuit, the tech giant Oracle has provided new details to support its accusation that Amazon secretly negotiated a job offer with a then-Department of Defense official who helped shape the procurement process for a massive federal contract for which Amazon was a key bidder. Amazon Web Services and Microsoft are now the two finalists to win the highly contested $10 billion contract for what is known as the Joint Enterprise Defense Infrastructure, or JEDI. The deal, one of the largest federal contracts in U.S. history, would pay one company to provide cloud computing services in support of Defense Department operations around the world. But the contract has been hotly contested since the department began soliciting proposals last year. Two of Amazon’s competitors, IBM and Oracle, filed complaints with the Government Accountability Office saying that the winner-take-all process unfairly favored Amazon, which is seen as an industry leader in cloud computing. When its claim was rejected, Oracle sued the government in the U.S. Court of Federal Claims. Since the court battle began in 2018, Oracle has aggressively lodged conflict-of-interest accusations involving a former DOD official named Deap Ubhi, who left the department in 2017 to take a job at Amazon. In a court motion filed on Friday, Oracle alleged that while Ubhi worked on the preliminary research for the JEDI program in the late summer and fall of 2017, he was also engaged in a secret job negotiation with Amazon for months, complete with salary discussions, offers of signing bonuses, and lucrative stock options.

Pompeo: Jared Kushner’s Palestine plan “unexecutable;’ Kushner: Palestinians unready for Self-Rule -- – I can barely believe it. Mike Pompeo, who can believe 10 impossible things before breakfast every day, including the impending Rapture and Hilary Clinton’s responsibility for Benghazi, isn’t a complete Trumpbot after all.In private remarks to the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations that someone recorded and leaked to the Washington Post, Pompeo threw cold water on Jared Kushner’s still unrevealed “Deal of the Century.” There are things wrong with it, he admitted.

• 1. It isn’t very good.
• 2. It is “unexecutable,” i.e. impractical and incapable of being implemented in the real world.
• 3. It isn’t very original. (This is bad, since all previous attempts by the Israelis and their American backers to impose a settlement on the Occupied Palestinians have failed, and if this Deal is like the others then it will fail too).
• 4. It stacks the deck for Israel so heavily that the Palestinians will refuse to play. Only an Israeli, Pompeo admitted, could love it.

So not only is Jared not solving the Palestine problem, not only is this plan not the deal of a century, but it isn’t even the deal of a week. it is not worth the paper it will be printed on. The normally docile and compliant Palestine Authority is so enraged by what they know of the deal that they have cut off relations with the United States and are refusing to be involved in these negotiations.And the Trump administration has cut off funds to the UN Relief and Works Agency that had been used to keep millions of Palestinian refugee families from starving, as well as cutting off development aid to the Palestine Authority. Pompeo just confirmed what most seasoned observers were expecting.

White House invites Trump business allies to forum in search for a Middle East 'deal of the century' - The White House has invited some of President Donald Trump’s key allies in the business world to an event later this month in Bahrain intended to kick-start the administration’s long-awaited Middle East peace plan. The meeting is part of Trump’s effort to strike the “deal of the century” for Israeli-Palestinian peace. The Bahrain gathering will focus on the economic part of the push, which has been led by Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law and a senior White House advisor. Yet while Palestinian leaders and executives have rejected invitations to attend the Bahrain summit, the administration is turning to corporate allies who have business interests in the region to take part in the deliberations. Tom Barrack, a loyal supporter of the president and the CEO of real estate investment firm Colony Capital, will be heading to the event slated to start on June 25 at the Four Seasons in Bahrain’s capital, Manama. Blackstone CEO Steve Schwarzman, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink and Goldman Sachs’ Dina Powell are among the heavy hitters who have been invited to the gathering dubbed “Peace to Prosperity,” according to people familiar with the planning. J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon was also invited, but will not attend, according to a person with direct knowledge of the matter. Dimon, who considered a 2020 presidential run and bragged that he could beat Trump, but has also praised some administration moves, including tax cuts and deregulation. Schwarzman is likely to attend, one of the people said, while Fink will not be going due to previous commitments, a separate source added. Schwarzman is a top donor to Trump’s reelection campaign. In 2017, he contributed $344,400 Trump’s joint fundraising committee. It’s unclear whether Powell, a former deputy national security advisor under Trump, will join the group.

 As Trump lands in UK, US threatens break in NATO alliance over EU army - As US President Donald Trump arrived in Britain yesterday for a state visit and to commemorate the 75th anniversary of the Normandy landings in World War II, reports emerged in the Spanish press of new US threats against plans to build a European Union (EU) army. Bitter conflicts between Washington and its European imperialist allies over EU army plans already surfaced last month. The Spanish daily El Pais reported on May 13 that the Pentagon had written to EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini, warning that these plans were damaging US-EU relations. The London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank published estimates that Europe might spend $110 billion on naval forces and $357 billion on land forces in a massive military build-up if Washington withdraws from the NATO alliance. On Sunday night, El Pais published another article citing leaked transcripts of an “explosive” May 22 meeting between unnamed EU security officials and US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Michael Murphy. According to the paper, Murphy delivered “an ultimatum to Europe to rectify its defense plans.” Murphy apparently threatened that if the EU did not change its military plans to allow US defense contractors to bid on EU contracts, Washington might not defend the EU against a hypothetical Russian attack. This breaches Article 5 of the Atlantic treaty, which states that the NATO alliance must respond collectively to military aggression on any NATO member state. In his May 22 remarks in Washington, Murphy took aim at the European Defense Fund (FDE) and PESCO (Permanent Structured Cooperation, the EU army’s bureaucratic name). “If the language in legislation on the FDE and the guidelines of PESCO do not change,” Murphy reportedly said, “then the EU will have to choose. Either it will give up on using the best technologies that exist, or it will have to develop its own.”

Leaked Pompeo Recording Reveals Failed US Attempt To Co-Opt Venezuela Religious Institutions -  Leaked audio of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo reveals that Venezuelan opposition to President Nicolás Maduro is more fractured than previously known, and efforts by the United States to coordinate them have proven extremely difficult, according to the Washington Post.  Recorded last week during a closed-door meeting with Jewish leaders in New York, Pompeo also revealed that the United States was "trying to support various religious...institutions to get the opposition to come together," but that the effort to keep the opposition united "has proven devilishly difficult."  "The moment Maduro leaves, everybody’s going to raise their hands and [say], ‘Take me, I’m the next president of Venezuela.’ It would be forty-plus people who believe they’re the rightful heir to Maduro," he added.  Pompeo blamed the failed April 30 military coup on disarray among the opposition, and maintained that Maduro is being controlled by foreign backers, primarily Cuba.  "You should know, [Maduro] is mostly surrounded by Cubans," said Pompeo. "He doesn’t trust Venezuelans a lick. I don’t blame him. He shouldn’t. They were all plotting against him. Sadly, they were all plotting for themselves." Pompeo's candid remarks represent a "sharp departure from the Trump administration’s official line touting the unity and strength of the opposition led by Juan Guaidó, the National Assembly leader recognized by some 60 countries as interim president," according to the Post.  "This is the first senior official I’ve heard be so publicly candid about the opposition’s weakness and how it may make bringing democracy back to Venezuela so much harder," according to CFR Venezuela expert, Shannon O'Neil.  "It is a sobering but accurate view," she added. "They remain divided over how to take on the Maduro regime — whether or not to enter into dialogue, whether or not to engage with the military, whether or not to run a presidential candidate or boycott elections. They don’t even retweet each other."

Trump- Russia Confirmed It Removed Most Of Their People From Venezuela - President Trump confirmed in a Monday afternoon tweet that Russia communicated to the US that it has removed "most of their people" from Venezuela, in reference to military personnel previously servicing contracts with Maduro's armed forces.   Trump's tweet followed a Sunday WSJ report detailing that Russian state defense contractor Rostec is quickly pulling out of the Latin American country over concerns the debt-strapped socialist ally won't be able to pay its bills now or in the future.   Russia has informed us that they have removed most of their people from Venezuela. — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 3, 2019  The president issued the statement while on a state visit to London in what could signal a broader Russian exit of defense support to the Maduro government. The Wall Street Journal notes that it's a huge blow to Maduro - and though it appears primarily motivated by lack of confidence in Caracas' ability to pay the bills - this could mark the writing on the wall in terms of the future powerful backing of Maduro's biggest international supporter. It further comes as the US has vowed to keep up the pressure and after the Kremlin condemned what it called ongoing "US-backed coup attempts". The WSJ reports the following details: Russian state defense contractor Rostec, which has trained Venezuelan troops and advised on securing arms contracts, has cut its staff in Venezuela to just a few dozen, from about 1,000 at the height of cooperation between Moscow and Caracas several years ago, said a person close to the Russian defense ministry. The report describes a "gradual pullout" which has been noticeably ramping up of late, citing sources to say further it's due to "a lack of new contracts" and crucially "the acceptance that Mr. Maduro’s regime no longer has the cash to continue to pay for other Rostec services associated with past contracts."

China-Russia Partnership Threatens US Global Hegemony - This Real News Network interview describes how China is threatening America’s superpower status and how that rivalry is also exposing fractures in the US elites. (video & transcript) Big power rivalry is heading into very dangerous waters. The rise of China as an economic and military superpower is threatening the global hegemony of the United States. Russia has been pushed into an increasingly tighter relationship with China to balance the attempts by the West to isolate it. President Trump, representing the most aggressive sections of American capital, is responding with a trade war, and an unparalleled massive peacetime military budget that was justified by his Secretary of Defense Shanahan with three words: China, China, and China. Christine Lagarde, the IMF’s managing director, said in a briefing note that taxing all trade between the world’s two largest economies would cause some $455 billion in gross domestic product to evaporate. The report said this would be a loss larger than South Africa’s entire economy. In a recent meeting between Russia’s President Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, apparently the 29th such meeting in the last few years, it was announced with the two leaders looking on that the Chinese tech company Huawei has struck a deal to build Russia’s first 5G wireless network. This is the same company that Trump has banned from developing the 5G network in the United States, and is pushing Europe to do the same. This is clearly just the early stages of what is already the defining big power contention of the 21st century. When the two countries should be focused on the climate crisis, it’s looking more like the years before World War I. Of course, there were no nuclear weapons in 1914. Now joining us to discuss the Chinese, Russian, and American rivalry is Rob Johnson. Rob is the president of the Institute on New Economic Thinking. He was formerly a banking associate of George Soros, and he’s now leading the Commission on Global Economic Transformation, a project of INET, co-chaired by Nobel Prize winners Joseph Stiglitz and Mike Spence. Thanks for joining us, Rob.

US defense secretary issues military threat against China - The US trade war against China, which started just over a year ago, has now escalated to a full-scale economic confrontation backed by the military might of American imperialism. The rapid acceleration of the US drive against China and its increasingly bellicose character was underscored in a major speech delivered by the acting US Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan on the weekend. Over the past month, the US has hiked tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of Chinese goods, threatened the imposition of new imposts on all Chinese imports and virtually black banned the telecoms giant Huawei from the supply of US-made components in an attempt to cripple its global operations. Speaking at the annual Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, organised by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, which included participants from China, Shanahan delivered a 40-minute blast against Beijing in which he emphasised US readiness to use military power to secure its interests. The speech coincided with the release of an Indo-Pacific Strategy Report by the US Defense Department accusing China of seeking “Indo-Pacific hegemony in the near-term and, ultimately global pre-eminence in the long-term.” The report called China a “revisionist” power that sought to undermine the international system from within, attempting to exploit its benefits while eroding the values and principles of the “rules-based order”—the standard reference to US dominance. While claiming that the US “does not seek conflict,” Shanahan said “we know that having the capability to win wars is the best way to deter them.” The US had already committed $125 billion for “operational readiness and sustainment” for the next financial year and is preparing to allocate an additional $104 billion for research and development of emerging technologies. “This finding will boost the depth and capacity of our armed forces, and also help expand our training—including with allies and partners—to improve mission readiness critical to meeting this region’s challenges” he said. The read out of his remarks provided by the Defense Department said the Indo-Pacific was “our priority theatre.” The US Pacific Command had four times more assigned forces than in any other area, with more than 370,000 service members devoted to the region. The US had “more than 2000 aircraft, providing the ability to project power across the vast distances of this region” together with “more than 200 ships and submarines to ensure freedom of navigation.”

 China accuses US of derailing trade negotiations - The Chinese government in a policy paper released Sunday said the U.S. is to blame for trade negotiations being derailed. The report from the Cabinet spokesman’s office said China kept its word through every round of negotiations, but the U.S. had backtracked on commitments three times, according to the Associated Press. “But the more the U.S. government is offered, the more it wants,” it reportedly said, accusing the American negotiators of “resorting to intimidation and coercion.” “A country’s sovereignty and dignity must be respected, and any agreement reached by the two sides must be based on equality and mutual benefit,” the report said, according to the AP. Trade negotiations between the world's two largest economies faltered early in May. As a result, the Trump administration raised tariffs from 10 percent to 25 percent on $200 billion of imports, a move which China responded to by targeting $60 billion worth of U.S. agricultural exports. The president has threatened another round of tariffs on Chinese imports if a trade deal is not reached. The U.S. has accused China of stealing trade secrets and forced technology transfers, both of which China has denied being involved in. Sunday's report did not specify what issues allegedly derailed negotiations. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the report.

Xinhua Headlines: China publishes white paper on trade consultations, revealing U.S. backtracking - Xinhua | English.news.cn: -- China published a white paper Sunday denouncing U.S. unilateral and protectionist measures, criticizing its backtracking on Sino-U.S. trade talks, and demonstrating China's stance on trade consultations and pursuit of reasonable solutions.The white paper, "China's Position on the China-U.S. Economic and Trade Consultations," was issued by the State Council Information Office.Besides a preface and a conclusion, the 8,300-character white paper devotes three sections to elaborate on the damages of the trade frictions provoked by the United States, the U.S. backtracking on its commitment in the consultations, and China's commitment to credible consultations based on equality and mutual benefit. The white paper said that the Chinese and American economies were highly integrated and together constituted an entire industrial chain in today's globalized world.The two economies are bound in a union that is mutually beneficial and win-win in nature, therefore equating a trade deficit to being taken advantages of is an error. "The restrictive measures the U.S. has imposed on China are not good for China or the U.S., and still worse for the rest of the world," the white paper said. The U.S. tariff measures led to a decrease in the volume of China's exports to the United States, which fell by 9.7 percent year-on-year in the first four months of 2019, dropping for five months in a row. As China has to impose tariffs as a countermeasure to U.S. tariff hikes, U.S. exports to China have dropped for eight months in a row. The uncertainty brought by U.S.-China economic and trade friction made companies in both countries more hesitant about investing. China's investment in the U.S. continued to fall and the growth rate of U.S. investment in China has also slowed. Instead of boosting American economic growth, the U.S. tariff measures have significantly increased production costs for U.S. companies, pushed up domestic prices and undermined American people's livelihoods. 

US should take ‘sole and entire’ responsibility for stalled trade talks, China State Council Information Office white paper says SCMP - China has laid the blame squarely on the US for the breakdown of trade talks between the world’s two biggest economies, but hinted at its willingness to resume stalled negotiations with Washington while rejecting any attempt to force concessions from Beijing. In a white paper on China’s official position on the trade talks released by the State Council Information Office on Sunday, Beijing made it clear the US government “should bear the sole and entire responsibility” for the current stalemate, and hit back at allegations that Beijing had backtracked from its earlier promises. On the specific allegation that China significantly changed the text under negotiation after the latest round of talks, the white paper said it was “common practice” to make new proposals and adjustments as the talks progressed, something the US had done consistently. “The more the US government is offered, the more it wants,” the document said.At a press conference in Beijing on Sunday, Wang Shouwen, China’s vice-minister for commerce, accused the US of being “irresponsible” in accusing Beijing of backtracking on its promises.“Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed,” he said in English, the only time he strayed from his native tongue. Meanwhile, the white paper said that Beijing remained “committed to credible consultations based on equality and mutual benefit”, but would “not give ground on matters of principle”.When asked what the US side needed to do for the negotiations to continue, Wang referred to a preliminary agreement made by Chinese President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart Donald Trump in Argentina in December.“The consensus then was to not raise tariffs, and work towards cancelling them,” he said. Despite the presidents’ efforts, Beijing’s white paper came just a day after it introduced new tariffs on goods imported from the US.

For the U.S. and China, it’s not a trade war anymore — it’s something worse --What started out two years ago as an effort by President Trump to wring better terms from China on the nuts and bolts of foreign trade now threatens to become a far wider and more ominous confrontation. The conflict continues to be framed as a “trade war” between the world’s two biggest economies — as Washington and Beijing pursue an escalating series of tariff hikes and other retaliatory measures.Even as Trump moved Thursday to open a new, potentially damaging trade war with Mexico, however, the conflict with China has widened beyond the original trade-based issues. Beneath the surface, a new tone has begun to emerge since trade talks broke down in early May and Trump ratcheted up tariffs on imported goods from China, an action met with retaliatory duties from Beijing. Officials on both sides of the Pacific have begun to portray the U.S.-China relationship in nationalistic and emotion-charged terms that suggest a much deeper conflict. Recently, for example, a private group of American economists and trade experts with long-standing experience in China traveled to Beijing, expecting their usual technical give-and-take with Chinese government officials.  Instead, a member of the Chinese Politburo harangued them for almost an hour, describing the U.S.-China relationship as a “clash of civilizations” and boasting that China’s government-controlled system was far superior to the “Mediterranean culture” of the West, with its internal divisions and aggressive foreign policy. On the U.S. side, a senior State Department official, during a forum last month in Washington, warned of a deepening confrontation with China that she cast in something close to racial terms. On the trade issues themselves, the two sides may still be able to reach a truce, with the best chance coming with the economic summit of major nations at the end of June in Osaka, Japan. Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled to attend the meeting of Group of 20 leaders. Nothing short of a deal struck directly by the two leaders is likely to avert new rounds of punches and counter-punches over economic and financial ties, analysts say. But whether either leader is interested in a stand-down is unclear.

If China cuts rare earth supplies, what can the US do? China has once again hinted strongly that it may retaliate against the United States in the latest trade war round by cutting off US supplies of rare earth products. While President Donald Trump has raised tariffs on many Chinese exports to the United States, no tariffs were put on rare earth materials. As matters now stand, the US and its top Asian allies are totally dependent on China for rare earth metals and products, a dangerous situation impacting both national security and competitiveness, even halting the emerging battery-powered car market that depends on rare earth materials. What can the US do? China produces about 97% of rare earth ore, 97% of rare earth oxides, 89% of rare earth alloys, 75% of neodymium iron boron magnets (NdFeB) and 60% of samarium cobalt magnets (SmCo). The United States almost entirely lacks the refining, fabricating, metal-making, alloying and magnet manufacturing capacity to process rare earths and is nearly completely dependent on China. Rare earth metals are used in commercial and defense applications. For example, Virginian-class nuclear-powered submarines each use 9,200 pounds of rare earth metals, while Arleigh Burke guided missile destroyers require about 5,200 lbs of rare earth metals – there are 66 destroyers in service and 14 either under construction or on order. The F-35 Joint Strike Fighters each require 920 lbs of rare earth metals – 380 have been built so far and the total buy for the US alone is 2,663 aircraft with Japan now about to order an additional 105 F-35s. Overall, the US defense market for rare earth materials is less than 5% of domestic consumption. But the defense market needs are for very high leverage applications such as fin actuators in missile guidance and control systems, disk drive motors installed in aircraft, tanks, missile systems and command and control centers, lasers for enemy mine detection, interrogators, underwater mines and counter-measures, satellite communications, radar and sonar on submarines and surface ships and optical equipment.   “The electrical systems in aircraft use (rare earth) samarium-cobalt permanent magnets to generate power. These magnets are also essential to many military weapons systems. “In addition, aircraft use small high-powered rare earth magnet actuators that control their various surfaces during operation. Heat-resistant ceramic coatings are applied to jet engines as a barrier to protect metal alloys. The ceramic coating maintains its heat-resistant durability thanks to yttrium oxide – an important rare earth element – which prevents the zirconia from transforming from a tetragonal to a nonclinical structure.

Chinese Embargo Threats Ring Hollow—the Reason Why Lies in Rare Earths - We’ve been sold an empty threat for years. And now it’s finally happening: ahistorical bluff is getting close to being revealed for the paper tiger that it is. According to accounts in several local newspapers, China is poised to embargo shipments of rare earths to strike back against the U.S. in response to the mounting trade war between the two countries. A representative example is the People’s Daily, an official organ of the Chinese Communist Party, which recently wrote: “We advise the U.S. side not to underestimate the Chinese side’s ability to said safeguard its development rights and interests. Don’t say we didn’t warn you!” The International Business Times noted that“ the phrase ‘Don’t say we didn’t warn you’ was only used two other times in history by the People’s Daily—in 1962 before China’s border war with India and preceding the 1979 China-Vietnam War.”So are we on the verge of World War III? Certainly, Beijing’s threats sound ominous, but in this case, the warning, likeChina’s threat to sell U.S. Treasuries, is more apparent than real. As for the historical military references, it’s also worth recalling that neither the border war with India nor the conflict with Vietnam ended particularly well for Beijing in terms of decisively securing its strategic objectives when the attacks were launched. China is said to have “won” the 1962 war with India, but the disputed border issue is not fully resolved, and ultimately created a more formidable adversary when India modernized its army in response to Beijing’s attack; in Vietnam, the end was widely considered to be a military debacle for China’s People’s Liberation Army. By the same token, today’s threatened rare earths embargo may well prove to be disruptive (and expensive) for the United States in the short term. Long term, not so much, and, in fact, it may prove profoundly self-defeating for Beijing.

 China warns citizens against travel to the US - Beijing has stepped up its warnings against the U.S. by cautioning about working, studying and traveling in America. China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced a safety warning on Tuesday for Chinese citizens and companies in the U.S.. according to state broadcaster CCTV.“Recently, U.S. law enforcement agencies have on multiple occasions used methods such as entry and exit checks, and on-site interviews to harass Chinese citizens in the U.S.,” the ministry said, according to CCTV.“The Foreign Ministry and the Chinese Embassy and Consulate in the U.S. warn Chinese citizens and Chinese-invested institutions to raise their safety awareness, strengthen preventative measures, and respond properly,” it added.“In case of emergency, please promptly contact the Chinese consulate in the U.S. for help.”The Ministry of Culture and Tourism also issued an alert Tuesday for Chinese tourists traveling to America. “Recently, shootings, robberies and theft have occurred frequently in the U.S.,” the ministry said on its website in Chinese, according to a CNBC translation. Tuesday’s announcements follow the Ministry of Education’s warning on Monday for Chinese students studying abroad that noted recent U.S. restrictions on some Chinese student visas.

Chinese Tourism To US Plunges Amid Deepening Trade War - Travel from China to the U.S. fell 5.7% in 2018 to 2.9 million visitors, according to the National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO) data first reported by The Associated Press (A.P.). It was the first time in 15 years that Chinese travel to the U.S. declined on a YoY basis.  A deepening trade war between the U.S. and China is one of the main reasons behind the travel slowdown. President Trump began the trade war by first imposing tariffs on Chinese solar panels and washing machines in January 2018, and the trade war has since intensified. Earlier this month, Trump increased the tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports to 25% from10%, while China retaliated with 25% tariffs on $60 billion of U.S. imports. Trump's latest move has targeted Chinese tech companies, by outright banning their sales of telecommunication products to U.S. companies. In response, Beijing has since warned it might impose an export ban on rare-earth metals, which could create supply-chain issues for American producers of everything from microchips, to batteries, to night-vision goggles. Last summer, China's embassy in Washington issued a travel warning to Chinese nationals traveling to the U.S. The embassy warned Chinese tourists to be conscious of the threats of public shootings and robberies, expensive medical bills, searches and seizures by customs agents, telecommunications fraud and natural disasters. "Public security in the United States is not good. Cases of shootings, robberies, and theft are frequent," the embassy said in the alert published in July 2018.

Disaster- Beijing Warns US Farmers May Lose Chinese Market For Good - Han Jun, the Chinese vice-minister of agriculture and rural affairs, says American farmers risk losing the entire Chinese market in the deepening trade war, reported South China Morning Post. The US began collecting 25% tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods arriving at all ports on Saturday morning in an intensification of the trade war. Earlier that morning, China also began collecting 25% tariff on $60 billion of American goods. Jun said the retaliatory tariffs covered all American agricultural products, a warning that American farmers could lose significant market share in 2H19 and beyond."If the US doesn't lift all additional tariffs [levied on Chinese products], bilateral agricultural product trade between China and the US, including soybean trade, will never go back to normal," Jun told Xinhua news agency. "If the US loses China's market, it will be very difficult for the US to regain it."Jun spoke about the developing farm crisis in the Midwestern US but played down the impact of the trade war on the Chinese economy. The agriculture official said President Trump's farm bailout(s) wouldn't be enough to cover the losses if American farmers were entirely shutout of the Chinese market. China can withstand the trade war, he added, indicating the government will incentivize domestic farmers to plant more of the crop and could also resort to other countries, like Argentina and Brazil. US soybean stockpiles have recently hit record highs as exports to China have plunged to 16-year lows. China cut imports of US soybeans last year by 50% while increasing imports of the crop from Brazil by 30%.

Chinese goods navigate alternate trade routes to US shores -- Higher U.S. tariffs from the trade war with China are altering patterns of world trade as exporters use third countries to bypass the duties, data reveals. Chinese exports to the U.S. tumbled by $15.2 billion, or 12%, in the January-March quarter of 2019 on a year-on-year basis. But an analysis conducted by Nikkei showed that while exports of machinery, electrical equipment and some other products have shown particularly sharp declines, shipments of such goods from China to the U.S. via Vietnam, Taiwan and Mexico rose during the same period. While there has been a spate of moves by companies to relocate production from China to other parts of the world in order to circumvent punitive U.S. import tariffs, there is a possibility that "roundabout exports" that involve faking the origin of products are also increasing. Nikkei analyzed the movements of goods between the U.S., China and the rest of the world based on data from the U.S. International Trade Commission and the International Trade Centre. Five key items which have suffered the biggest declines were analyzed: machinery and parts; electrical equipment and parts; furniture; toys; and automotive equipment and parts. In the case when China's exports to the U.S. are classified in accordance with customs codes, the volume of products including machinery and parts, and electrical equipment and parts, slumped conspicuously. In the first quarter of this year, exports of machinery and parts plunged by $5.77 billion from a year earlier, while exports of electrical equipment and parts plummeted by $4.46 billion year-on-year. With the exception of toys, four of these five items have become subject to three rounds of punitive import tariffs imposed by the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump. While exports of the five items from China to the U.S. between January and March declined by 16%, equivalent to a value of $12.2 billion, exports from China to developing countries and from developing countries to the U.S. have generally climbed. Exports via Vietnam, Taiwan and Mexico have increased particularly steeply. In January-March 2019, exports of the five items from China to Vietnam rose by $1.5 billion, or 20%, while exports of the five items from Vietnam to the U.S. surged by $2.7 billion, or 58%. In the same three-month period, exports of the five items from China to Taiwan increased by $1.4 billion, or 23%, while such exports from Taiwan to the U.S. expanded by $2.0 billion, or 31%. Exports from China to the U.S. via Mexico also increased. Mexico's exports to the U.S. surpassed those of China to become the biggest source in March.

Shocking New Report Exposes How Chinese Companies Are Dodging US Tariffs - While the US trade deficit declined only marginally in March, we posited that the unexpectedly large decline in the US-China bilateral trade deficit might be of greater interest to both the Trump Administration and the general investing public because - as both Zero Hedge and Bloomberg argued - it is an unequivocal sign that President Trump is, in at least one respect, "winning" the trade war. In March (the most recent month for which data are available), the bilateral trade gap shrank to just $20.75 billion, the lowest level since March 2014. All told, official US data showed that official Chinese exports to the US tumbled by $15.2 billion, or 12%, in the late January-March quarter of 2019 on an annualized basis. Since these data were collected before President Trump raised tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods in the latest round of trade-war escalation, the conventional wisdom would dictate that the bilateral deficit will probably continue to improve, as US companies source their goods from other foreign markets, or - as President Trump would undoubtedly prefer - opt to manufacture them in the US. And while that may or may not turn out to be true, Nikkei Asia Review raised questions about whether these data accurately reflect the impact of the tariffs on Chinese exporters - and, by extension, the Chinese economy - with an explosive report published Monday describing how Chinese exporters are using intermediaries to get around the tariffs. In an analysis of data from the US International Trade Commission and the International Trade Center, Nikkei revealed that while exports of machinery, electrical equipment and some other products impacted by tariffs have reflected particularly sharp declines, shipments of these goods from China to the US via Vietnam, Taiwan and Mexico actually rose during this period, a sign that exporters are rejiggering their supply chains to compensate for the US tariffs.

Trump Threatens China With Tariffs On At Least Another $300 Billion Of Goods - In the escalating war of words between the US and China, overnight President Trump threatened to hit China with tariffs on "at least" another $300 billion worth of Chinese goods, although he thought both China and Mexico wanted to make deals in their trade disputes with the United States. “Our talks with China, a lot of interesting things are happening. We’ll see what happens... I could go up another at least $300 billion and I’ll do that at the right time,” Trump told reporters before boarding Air Force One at the Irish airport of Shannon on his way to France for D-Day commemorations. He added that he thinks "China wants to make a deal and I think Mexico wants to make a deal badly." In Beijing, China’s Commerce Ministry struck a defiant tone. “If the United States wilfully decides to escalate tensions, we’ll fight to the end,” ministry spokesman Gao Feng told a regular news briefing. “China does not want to fight a trade war, but also is not afraid of one. If the United States wilfully decides to escalate trade tensions, we’ll adopt necessary countermeasures and resolutely safeguard the interests of China and its people.” As Reuters reported, China's Commerce Ministry also issued a report on how the United States has benefited from years of economic and trade cooperation with China, saying U.S. claims that China has taken advantage in bilateral trade were groundless. “Since the new U.S. administration took office, it has disregarded the mutually beneficial and win-win nature of China-U.S. economic and trade cooperation, and has advocated the theory that the United States has ‘lost out’ to China on trade,” the ministry said in a research report. “It has also taken the trade deficit issue as an excuse to provoke economic and trade frictions.” Just as ominous for those who still hope a prompt resolution to trade tensions is coming, while Trump said on Thursday that talks with China were ongoing, no face-to-face meetings have been held since May 10, the day the US increased tariffs on a $200 billion list of Chinese goods to 25%, prompting Beijing to retaliate. Adding to concerns China may target U.S. companies in the trade war, the ministry last week said it was drafting a list of “unreliable entities” that have harmed Chinese firms’ interests. While Gao said the list did not target specific industries, companies or individuals, and details would be disclosed soon, he noted that companies that abide by Chinese laws and market rules had nothing to worry about.

In latest move likely to goad Beijing, US defence department puts Taiwan on a list of ‘countries’ - There has been growing bipartisan support in Washington for a harder line toward China and improved ties with Taiwan. Photo: EPAThere has been growing bipartisan support in Washington for a harder line toward China and improved ties with Taiwan. Photo: EPA There has been growing bipartisan support in Washington for a harder line toward China and improved ties with Taiwan. Photo: EPA The Trump administration’s move to include Taiwan on a list of “countries” in a US Department of Defence report is the latest in a series of provocative moves that appear aimed at confronting China, and putting it on notice. The wording, an apparent break with long-standing US adherence to a one-China policy, is contained in the 55-page “Indo-Pacific Strategy Report” released on Saturday. The language is part of a section detailing US efforts to strengthen partnerships with democracies in the region; the section cites Singapore, Taiwan, New Zealand and Mongolia. “All four countries contribute to US missions around the world and are actively taking steps to uphold a free and open international order,” the report says, citing the four “countries” as “reliable, capable and natural partners”. The defence department did not respond to questions about its use of language, any intended purpose or message, although a senior Pentagon official said on Thursday that Taiwan was under growing threat from Beijing. Analysts said the use of “countries” is the latest salvo by the Trump administration as the US and China face off over trade, security, education, visas, technology and competing visions of “civilisation”. Past references to Taiwan as a nation have tended to involve misstatements by US officials rather than wording in a well-edited report, they added.

  In Major Provocation To China, US Prepares To Sell $2 Billion In Weapons To Taiwan - With the trade war between the US and China seemingly escalating every single day, the US has decided to provoke the not-so-sleeping dragon, and according to Reuters is pursuing the sale of more than $2 billion worth of tanks and weapons to Taiwan in a move that is sure to infuriate China further. While an official statement has not been made, an informal notification of the proposed sale has been sent to the U.S. Congress, four Reuters sources said. The proposed sale includes 108 General Dynamics Corp M1A2 Abrams tanks worth around $2 billion as well as anti-tank and anti-aircraft munitions, as Taiwan "has been interested in refreshing its existing U.S.-made battle tank inventory which includes M60 Patton tanks." The congressional notifications also included a variety of anti-tank munitions including 409 Raytheon Co and Lockheed Martin Corp-made Javelin missiles worth as much as $129 million, two of the Reuters sources said. In addition, the notifications included 1,240 TOW anti-tank missiles worth as much as $299 million; there were also 250 stinger missiles worth as much as $223 million in the notification. Stingers are often used in man-portable anti-aircraft weapons systems For decades, the United States has been the main arms supplier to Taiwan, which China deems its own and has never renounced the use of force to bring the self-ruled island under its control. Back in January, in a landmark speech, China's president Xi said that China reserves the right to use force to bring Taiwan to heel - but that peaceful "reunification" would be Beijing's goal. Xi has made resolving the "Taiwan issue" a priority. Last year, the Trump’s administration rolled out a long-awaited overhaul of US arms export policy aimed at expanding sales to allies, saying it would bolster the American defense industry and create jobs at home. Taking advantage of this expanded authority, last week the Pentagon announced it would sell 34 Boeing ScanEagle drones, to the governments of Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam for $47 million. The drones would afford greater intelligence gathering capabilities, allowing close observation and potentially curbing Chinese activity in the region. As a reminder, China has claimed almost all of the strategic South China Sea and frequently lashes out at the United States and its allies over naval operations near Chinese-occupied islands. Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam have competing claims.

Pompeo Again Threatens Germany- Drop Huawei Or Intelligence Sharing Blocked -  Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has again put Germany and the rest of Europe on notice regarding China's controversial telecom giant Huawei, warning they could be cut off from crucial US intelligence sharing over Huawei's 5G networks now being built.   Pompeo issued the ultimatum following a meeting with German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas on Friday, saying the decision on whether to allow Huawei equipment would have severe consequences, according to Reuters. His words came at the start of a five-day European tour: “They [Germany] will take their own sovereign decisions, [but we] will speak to them openly about the risks... and in the case of Huawei the concern is it is not possible to mitigate those anywhere inside of a 5G network,” Pompeo said. Germany, alongside the UK and France, has refused to budge amidst the ratcheting pressure from the US over worries that China's intelligence is using its next generation networks as "back door" for aggressive telecommunications eavesdropping. Pompeo told the news conference further: “(There is) a risk we will have to change our behavior in light of the fact that we can’t permit data on private citizens or data on national security to go across networks that we don’t have confidence (in).”

Donald Trump terminates preferential trade status for India under GSP -The US on Friday announced its decision to end preferential tariffs to $5.6 billion of Indian exports from June 5 after determining that it has not assured the US that it will provide "equitable and reasonable access to its markets." “I have determined that India has not assured the US that it will provide equitable and reasonable access to its markets. Accordingly, it is appropriate to terminate India's designation as a beneficiary developing country effective June 5, 2019," US President Donal Trump said in a proclamation on Friday. The US has announced the withdrawal of special duty benefits under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) on March 5 And were to come into force from the first week of May. However, Washington decided to postpone the implementation of its decision until May 23, when India gets a new government. US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross met former commerce and industry minister Suresh Prabhu met last month wherein the two discussed issues related to ecommerce, data protection and localisation and intellectual property rights.As per a study by the Federation of Indian Export Organisations, India’s global merchandise exports for 2018 were $324.7 billion, of which $51.4 billion were to the US. However, only $6.35 billion of exports from India to the US benefited from the GSP scheme. Such exports were covered under 1921 US tariff lines.

Trump Declares Trade War On India, Imposes New Tariffs -  In his latest act of aggressive protectionism in what has already been an action-packed week, Trump late Friday announced that his administration was terminating India's designation as a developing nation under a trade program that allowed Indian exporters to ship 2,000 products into the US duty free. The decision to revoke India's preferential trade status, which mirrors Trump's decision to revoke Turkey's status under the program a few weeks back, comes one day after Modi was sworn in for a second term. Under the decades-old program - known as the Generalized System of Preferences - Indian companies were able to avoid some $5.7 billion in duties back in 2017. The new standards will take effect June 5. "I have determined that India has not assured the United States that India will provide equitable and reasonable access to its markets," Trump said in a proclamation on Friday evening. "Accordingly, it is appropriate to terminate India’s designation as a beneficiary developing country effective June 5, 2019." The decision isn't unexpected: The White House warned back in March that it could end India's preferential treatment if India didn't agree to certain reforms, but it decided to hold off so as to not hurt Modi politically during the run up to the election. According to Bloomberg, Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer has become increasingly frustrated with India’s trade barriers and practices. The trade rep has taken issue with the country’s self-designation as a developing nation at the World Trade Organization.The White House's Friday proclamation also imposes tariffs on solar cells and washing machines from India and Turkey. Those tariffs had been imposed by Trump in 2018, but India and Turkey had been exempt because of their status as developing nations under the GSP.One critic of Trump's decision warned that ending the designation for India would cost American businesses hundreds of millions of dollars a year. Dan Anthony, executive director of the Coalition for GSP, a trade group, said that the decision "will cost American businesses over $300 million in additional tariffs every year."

Trade War 'Losers' Have Been Bond-Market Winners - Ever since the trade war broke out last year, economists have been scribbling up extensive lists of winners and losers. The common refrain has been that China will suffer the most, followed by economies dependent on its demand, such as South Korea. The likes of Indonesia and its Southeast Asian neighbors should be spared, because the products they send to China don’t end up assembled and repackaged on the mainland, and then resold to the U.S. The bond market, however, sees things very differently. Foreigners are gobbling up U.S. dollar bonds from risky, first-time issuers in Chinese cities so remote you’d need Google Maps to find them. The strong demand even prompted China’s state planner to curb issuance. This is a sharp reversal from the past, when market watchers speculated that the debt of so-called local government financing vehicles would precipitate the country’s “Minsky Moment,” a sudden collapse that follows a period of heavy borrowing. In May, investors from abroad also accelerated their purchases of South Korean debt, despite the economy’s recent downturn. In the first quarter, South Korea’s grew only 1.8%, sharply below last year’s 2.7%; yet its central bank refuses to cut interest rates, stubbornly holding on to its unrealistic growth forecast of 2.5% GDP for the year. In Jakarta, meanwhile, optimism is in the air. Reform-minded Joko Widodo was recently re-elected and is promising to spend more than $400 billion on infrastructure. Its real interest rate is the highest in the region, giving Bank Indonesia room to cut rates, a catalyst for bonds to rally. Yet foreigners are bailing. On the surface, this is perplexing: Bond investors tend to run for safety during turbulent times. In the U.S., for instance, junk-rated bonds suffered their first month of negative returns this year, while investment-grade notes are still churning along. This isn’t happening in Asia. That’s partly because, two decades after the Asian financial crisis, the greenback still rules supreme. During times of distress, protecting against sudden movements in certain currencies can get expensive quickly – particularly for nations that run fiscal and current-account deficits. In May, hedging the Indonesian rupiah with a one-year forward could set you back as much as 7%, eroding whatever capital gain you could earn from high-yielding Indonesian bonds. In that light, LGFV bonds look pretty appealing to dollar-based portfolio managers eager to beat benchmark returns.

Here's What Trade War With Mexico Will Do To Markets, And Who Is Most Exposed -- Naturally, the big question is what Trump's latest threat of hiking Mexican export tariffs will mean for both economies, and for the US stock market in particular. Commenting on this eventuality, Goldman's economists write that a trade war with Mexico, which accounted for 14% of US goods imports in 2018, poses a risk to both corporate profit margins and the health of the US consumer, who will likely absorb the majority of the tariffs via higher prices. Specifically, Goldman's political economists believe that at least the first 5% tariff on imports from Mexico (out of a total of 25%) planned for June 10 will be implemented. They also highlight the categories of goods that account for the highest share of imports from Mexico, China, and the two countries together. Notably, they show that the combination of proposed tariffs on China and Mexico imports would result in roughly 80% of some US imported products being subjected to tariffs, including toys, cell phones, and other consumer electronics. That's in theory, what about in practice? According to Goldman's Ben Snider, while the proposed tariffs pose only a small direct risk to total US corporate earnings, the downstream effects could be jarring, and he estimates that each incremental 5% tariff on all imports from Mexico could lower S&P 500 EPS by approximately 1%, or slightly less than $2, if companies absorb the entire increase in input costs. That said, from a price offset standpoint, the fallout would be manageable as firms would have to raise prices by less than 1% to offset even a full 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico. Similarly, Goldman expects that higher prices and restructured supply chains would offset much of the direct potential risk to S&P 500 profit margins from tariffs on imports from China. However, the danger is that the earnings risk to companies directly exposed to trade with China and Mexico is much larger, according to Goldman.In an attempt to narrow down where the most pain could emerge, the chart below shows Russell 1000 stocks that explicitly report assets in Mexico. Here, Goldman clarifies that not all of these firms will be affected by the proposed tariffs, and many firms that do face risk from the tariffs – including those that do not explicitly report assets in Mexico – are absent from this screen. However, the average stock on the list lagged the broad Russell 1000 by 200 bp on Friday. Meanwhile autos and auto components, which represent the largest US import from Mexico, have suffered even more, lagging the broad market by nearly 300 bp. In addition, Goldman sees the tariffs posing a risk to restaurants, although stock prices indicate a lack of investor concern: "Restaurant stocks have been relatively insulated from trade conflict in recent weeks, particularly relative to retail firms, which are more directly exposed to goods subject to tariffs on China imports. . However, Mexico represents the largest source of US agriculture imports, adding direct risk to restaurants should the import tariffs be implemented. In addition, the broad impact of incremental import tariffs on the US consumer should affect spending on dining as well as goods like consumer electronics."

Mexico’s Response to Tariffs Won’t Make Trump Happy - President Donald Trump overruled his advisers last week to announce tariffs on Mexico for not stopping migrants at the border. Facing the continuing fallout from Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation and the prospect of 2020 elections, Trump seems to be betting again that hyping the border and demonizing trade and Mexico will rally his political base. His latest tariff gambit abuses the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, undermines free trade agreements and taxes American consumers. But that isn’t why his threats won’t work. It is because President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador of Mexico can’t staunch the flow of people from his neighbors to the south.  Mexico’s reaction to Trump’s threats so far has been muted. Lopez Obrador sent a conciliatory letter in response. While declaring that he “wasn’t a coward,” he’s been in I’m-a-lover-not-a-fighter mode, couching his criticisms in history lessons harkening back to Abraham Lincoln. His foreign minister, after hurrying to Washington, has since been tweetingplatitudes about dignity and respect in the lead-up to Wednesday sessions with U.S. officials.  It isn’t just Trump who wants Lopez Obrador’s government to stop Central Americans. Mexicans themselves are increasingly unnerved and unhappy about the rising number of desperate migrants on their roads and in their communities. While they greeted the initial caravans with blankets and tacos, people’s patience and pocketbooks have worn thin. And the political opposition remains silent, still in disarray after last years’ electoral thumping.  But there is little that Lopez Obrador can do, especially in the short term. His government has already stepped up deportations to more than 50,000so far this year, surpassing the 2018 April and May numbers of his hard-line predecessor. Yet the women, children and men keep coming. Mexico’s immigration bureaucracies are utterly overwhelmed.

Letter From Mexican President Goes Way Over Trump’s Head - Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) responded to a threat by Donald Trump over new tariffs on Mexican goods with a letter focused on concepts Trump can’t possibly understand: dignity, fairness, compassion, and principles. AMLO sent sent Trump the letter on Thursday after Trump announced he wouldslap a 5% tariff on goods imported from Mexico starting June 10 if Mexico didn’t stop undocumented migrants from entering the U.S. through the countries’ shared border. Trump said he would raise those tariffs, which would hurt U.S. consumers and businesses, by 5% each month until October. In response, AMLO said he hopes to avoid a confrontation, preferring instead dialogue, prudence, and responsibility. He cited various examples of constructive relations between U.S. and Mexican presidents, a history lesson that also will go over Trump’s head unless someone explains it to him. Mexico’s president described the causes of migration and offered rational solutions to help improve the plight of those forced by poverty and violence to leave their homes. “Human beings don’t abandon their villages because they want to, but rather because they have to,” AMLO wrote. “That’s why from the start of my government I proposed cooperation to foster development and to assist Central American countries with productive investment to create jobs and address the core issue of this painful matter.” AMLO said his administration is focused on fighting corruption to create the conditions needed so that people wouldn’t have to migrate. “President Trump: Social problems aren’t resolved with tariffs or coercive measures,” he wrote, adding that, “the Statue of Liberty is more than an empty symbol.” He also took a swipe at Trump’s “America First” mantra. “With all due respect, while you have the right to express it, the slogan ‘America First’ is a fallacy, because to the end of time, and even over national borders, justice and universal fraternity will prevail.” The Mexican president called on Trump to seek dialogue and alternative solutions to the immigration issue. “I don’t lack courage [and] I’m not a coward,” AMLO wrote. “I don’t believe in the law of retaliation, in ‘a tooth for a tooth’ or in ‘an eye for an eye’….”

Trump ‘deadly serious’ about Mexico tariffs, Mulvaney says - President Donald Trump is "deadly serious" about his threat to impose a 5 percent tariff on all goods from Mexico over his concerns of illegal immigration, Mick Mulvaney, the acting White House chief of staff, said Sunday. "He is absolutely, deadly serious," Mulvaney said on Fox News Sunday. "I fully expect these tariffs to go on to at least the 5 percent level on June 10." Trump last week tweeted the United States would impose a 5 percent tariff on all goods from Mexico "until such time as illegal migrants coming through Mexico, and into our Country, STOP." Mulvaney doubled-down on that timeline Sunday, explaining that the White House "for months" has been talking about an "emergency situation" at the U.S.-Mexico border. "The president is deadly serious about fixing the situation at the southern border," Mulvaney said. The president tweeted last week the tariff would "gradually increase until the Illegal Immigration problem is remedied." The White House later clarified the tariff would increase to 10 percent on July 1; 15 percent on Aug. 1; 20 percent on Sept. 1; and 25 percent on Oct. 1. "The reason we're doing things people don't expect is that we're facing things at the border we never experienced before," Mulvaney said on NBC. "We're using extraordinary tools because there is extraordinary circumstances that dictate those."

 Republicans threaten revolt, may block Trump's Mexico tariffs - Republicans are warning that President Donald Trump could face a shocking rebellion against him on the Senate floor if the president slaps Mexico with wide-ranging tariffs. At a closed-door lunch Tuesday, two Trump administration officials laid out the president’s view: There is a crisis at the border and Mexico needs to stem the surge of migrants to avoid the new levies.But White House deputy counsel Pat Philbin and Assistant Attorney General Steve Engel faced brutal push-back from the GOP, according to multiple senators, with some threatening that Trump could actually face a veto-proof majority to overturn the tariffs. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) told reporters the party spent “almost our entire lunch” going back and forth with the administration and warned afterward “there is not much support in my conference for tariffs, that's for sure.” Summing up the mood of the lunch, Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) said, according to sources familiar with the matter: The administration "is trying to use tariffs to solve every problem but HIV and climate change.”  In March, 12 Republicans moved to reject Trump’s emergency declaration on the southern border, eight short of a veto-proof majority. But given the strong free-trade inclinations of the Senate GOP, the president could face a far larger condemnation if he ends up moving forward on the tariffs.

 Trump Threatens New National Emergency To Enact Mexico Tariffs -The Trump administration has indicated that it may declare a second national emergency in order to implement new tariffs announced on Mexico, according to Senate Republicans, who announced the potential plan following a closed-door lunch with White House deputy counsel Pat Philbin and DOJ officials.  There was no word on the likelihood of this happening, however on Sunday, acting White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney said that President Trump "is absolutely, deadly serious" about the tariffs, adding "I fully expect these tariffs to go on to at least the 5% level on June 10. The president is deadly serious about fixing the situation at the southern border." The White House announced Thursday that the import tax will increase by 5 percentage points every month through October, topping out at 25%, unless Mexico takes significant action to stem the flow of migrants, mostly from Central America, who have surged to the U.S. border in recent months. -LA Times As far as declaring a national emergency to enact the tariffs, "I think that was somewhat up in the air. …I think that's a distinct possibility but I don't think there's any definitive answer," said Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) following the lunch.  Sen. Mike Rounds (R-SD) said that the administration is still "working through" whether it would even need to declare the national emergency in the first place, a move which would set up yet another clash with Congressional Democrats and Republicans opposed to the idea.  "Tariffs are not real popular in the Republican conference," said Johnson. "The way they put it was is they’re still working through all the details on it and they have not decided what their approach is going to be yet with regard to that, that was my understanding," said Rounds.

U.S.-Mexico Showdown Puts $45 Billion Food Trade in Cross Hairs - Meat and grains, fruits, vegetables and even sugar. These are the dinner-table goods that are regularly imported back and forth between Mexico and the U.S. About $26 billion in farm and food goods moved north to the U.S. in 2018, while $19 billion in such items traveled south to Mexico, according to lender CoBank ACB. U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to impose 5% tariffs on imports from Mexico starting on June 10, rising to 25% in October if the country doesn’t meet his immigration demands. If the tariffs do reach 25%, the cost to U.S. importers could be $6.5 billion based on the dollar amount bought from Mexico in 2018, the Greenwood Village, Colorado-based lender advised. If Mexico retaliates, dinner tables on both sides of the border could be affected. “Things will become more costly for the American consumer,” if the tariffs climb to 25%, said Dan Kowalski, vice president of research for CoBank. relates to U.S.-Mexico Showdown Puts $45 Billion Food Trade in Cross Hairs In mid-May, the removal of U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum from Canada and Mexico lifted hopes for the eventual ratification of a new trade agreement between the three countries. Also See: U.S., Mexico economies intertwined: By the numbers Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard has said he sees 80% odds for Mexico to negotiate a solution with the U.S. to avoid any new tariffs, optimism echoed by President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. Still, there’s a lack of certainty for farmers, traders and others in the agricultural sector moving forward, according to CoBank’s Kowalski. “Hard for the agricultural sector to make medium to long-term plans when they are not sure what the foreign trade policy will be,” Kowalski said.

‘The Superpower of Food’ Needs Global Trade, U.S. Ag Secretary Says - The U.S. government’s top agriculture official is having to admit that the free flow of products is crucial to America’s farmers while also defending his boss Donald Trump’s combative trade policies. Department of Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue on Wednesday classified the U.S. as “the superpower of food in the world,” and also said that farmers are dependent on international trade. He made the comments as Mexican officials traveled to the White House in a bid to negotiate a deal to avert President Trump’s plan to impose tariffs on the nation’s goods starting Monday. The president’s May 30 threat -- to be carried out if Mexico doesn’t meet his immigration demands -- stirred angst among U.S. agricultural groups, with potentially $45 billion in food trade at stake. The Latin American nation is a top customer of pork, corn and wheat. The farm belt is also grappling with lower demand from China, another major buyer, as trade tensions escalate between Washington and Beijing. Perdue’s role in reaching out to the farm community is crucial, given that America’s rural, agricultural base helped catapult Trump to the White House. Farmers have faced the brunt of retaliatory tariffs in Trump’s tit-for-tat trade war with China, with the latter placing duties on U.S.-grown products including soybeans. In speaking on Wednesday from Newburg, Maryland, Perdue said he’s hopeful that the U.S. and Mexico can reach an accord to avoid the tariffs. He also said that he was “anxious” that the hubbub between the neighboring countries may interfere with the ratification of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement for trade. “I’m concerned and anxious over the fact that these types of tariffs may interfere with that ratification,” Perdue said in an interview following remarks at a forum. 

US-Mexico Trade is Dominated by the Auto Industry Big Picture - These charts are quite telling:

What's The Plan Mr. Tariff Man? - - Luongo - For three years now all I’ve heard is “Trust the plan.” “Trump has a plan.” Maybe he does and maybe, just maybe, he doesn’t. Trump’s latest folly to place a 5% per month tariff on Mexico if it doesn’t control the border with the U.S. is just another idiotic move in his quest to control global trade. It’s not like Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is Trump’s enemy on the border. In fact, if anything, AMLO has been on Trump’s side. But, like Trump, he’s got just as big a Deep State problem and that precludes anything substantive getting done. This latest outburst by Trump ensures that his USMCA, the “Greatest Deal Ever,” won’t get ratified. And it just goes to show that he’s so weak as a President that he can’t win any wins within his own government so now he’s going to punish Mexico while pandering to his mostly brain-dead base. He’s looking at his rising approval numbers and surveying the carnage in global trade and thinking he has the political capital for this. And, sadly, he’s right. But this tariff is not about the border. It’s far from that. Trump is going to be Mr. Legal Immigration. He’s going to let in as many skilled foreign workers as he can to fill the jobs he’s trying to win back from China, India and Europe. Notice how Americans aren’t going to fill those jobs. And Trump doesn’t care one whit about that in the end, as long as those rubes in flyover country keep showing up to his rallies, genuflecting to his God-Emperorness and donating to his re-election by the millions. After all he’s running against the largest, if not sorriest, pack of braying jackals (Tulsi Gabbard notwithstanding, of course) ever assembled by the Democrats, the party of Illegal Immigration. If these tariffs aren’t about the border than what are they about? They are about China. They are about stopping the re-branding of Chinese imports as being from Mexico and skirting his Holy Tariff of Anitoch which is the key to his escalating trade war with China.

Democrats Blame Trump on Trade, But Avoid Their Own Concrete Proposals - The nearly two dozen Democratic candidates running for president overwhelmingly agree that Donald Trump’s trade policies have failed. They’re just not ready to say what they’d do about it. Of the 14 contenders who attended the California Democratic Party convention this weekend, only one, Senator Kamala Harris, addressed the issue. She condemned Trump’s recent threat to impose tariffs on Mexican goods but didn’t offer any policy prescriptions of her own. This relative silence leaves two constituencies crucial to winning back the White House -- union members and rural voters -- open to being wooed by Trump’s get-tough approach, much as they were when he faced Hillary Clinton in 2016. “Trade policy by tweet does not work,” Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts said last month in Newton, Iowa. “The kind of chaos and tit-for-tat that Donald Trump is engaged in is imposing an enormous cost on farmers right here in Iowa and people all across this country. This makes no sense.” The escalating dispute between the U.S. and China, as well as Trump’s willingness to go after Mexico, the U.S.’s second-biggest trading partner, have made trade a hot topic. Yet most Democratic contenders, including Warren, are avoiding substantive policy proposals. That’s because an embrace of tariffs and other barriers could alienate rural voters in areas that are heavily dependent on agricultural exports. But favoring more open trade could make it hard to recapture blue-collar workers in the Rust Belt who have turned away in recent years, blaming the Democrats’ support of globalization for the collapse of U.S. manufacturing.

 Anxious GOP seeks to delay Trump’s Mexico tariffs - Senate Republicans say President Trump should postpone tariffs set to be imposed on Mexican exports Monday, and allow more time for negotiators to reach a deal. The senators say further negotiations could help prevent an escalating trade fight they say would damage the U.S. economy. “We have a lot of people who don’t want to see this go into effect next week,” said Senate Republican Whip John Thune (S.D.). Vice President Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met with a Mexican delegation on Wednesday for about 90 minutes but failed to reach a deal that involved curbing illegal immigration to the United States. Trump said on Twitter the talks would resume Thursday, and vowed that if there were no deal, the tariffs would be imposed on schedule. “Progress is being made, but not nearly enough!” wrote Trump, who then noted a report issued by his administration earlier Wednesday that said border arrests in May had hit a record 133,000. The results appeared to have been released on Friday to put added pressure on Mexico. Trump said talks would resume “with the understanding that, if no agreement is reached, Tariffs at the 5% level will begin on Monday, with monthly increases as per schedule. The higher the Tariffs go, the higher the number of companies that will move back to the USA!”

Trump unimpressed with US-Mexico trade talks BBC - US President Donald Trump has said "not nearly enough" progress is being made in negotiations with Mexico to avert his threatened tariffs. Trump administration officials will meet for a second day of talks with Mexico's foreign minister in Washington on Thursday. Mr Trump vowed import duties of 5% will take effect on Monday unless Mexico stems the flow of migrants to the US. Those numbers reached their highest level in more than a decade last month. US Vice-President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo held talks with Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard at the White House on Wednesday, but the 90-minute meeting ended without agreement. Mr Ebrard told a news conference afterwards the negotiations had been cordial, but tariffs were not even discussed. "The dialogue was focused on migration flows and what Mexico is doing or is proposing to the United States, our concern about the Central American situation," he said. The US president, who is in Europe for World War Two commemorations, warned on Twitter that the tariffs would go ahead next Monday if there is no breakthrough.

 Trump’s demand to Mexico: Keep migrants or suffer tariffs - U.S. officials are set to meet with Mexican negotiators Thursday for a second day of immigration talks, with President Donald Trump’s threat to slap 5% tariffs on all Mexican imports looming over the discussions. The duties are set to kick in in just four days. Trump threatened to implement rising tariffs on all Mexican imports if the country did not stop the increasing tide of undocumented migrants crossing the southern U.S. border. The first day of high-level talks at the White House, which included Vice President Mike Pence and Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard, ended without a deal Wednesday afternoon, with both sides failing to bridge their differences on the immigration issue. Staff-level meetings between U.S. and Mexican officials were expected to continue at the White House at 2 p.m., an administration official told CNBC on Thursday morning. There were also meetings between the two countries at the State Department. Trump told reporters earlier Thursday that “I think a lot of progress was made yesterday, but we have to make a lot of progress.” “We’ll see what happens,” Trump added. “But, something pretty dramatic could happen. We’ve told Mexico, ‘the tariffs go on,’ and I mean it too. I’m very happy with it.” If no agreement is struck at today’s talks, Trump wrote in a tweet Wednesday, then the tariffs “will begin on Monday, with monthly increases as per schedule.” The tariffs could rise to 25% on all Mexican goods by October.

Trump plans to declare new national emergency to impose tariffs -- President Trump is planning to declare a new national emergency in order to implement sweeping tariffs on Mexico over the flow of Central American migrants to the U.S., according to a draft document of the declaration reviewed by The Hill.According to the document, the new emergency is necessary due to “the failure of the Government of Mexico to take effective action to reduce the mass migration of aliens illegally crossing into the United States through Mexico.”The new emergency declaration would follow a February emergency declaration, which Trump used to justify sending National Guard troops to support Customs and Border Protection (CBP) officials at the southern border.The draft document signals that the White House believes that imposing the tariffs under the February emergency declaration might not pass legal muster. But it remains unclear if a final decision has been made to invoke another emergency. The White House did not answer questions about the document.Officials from the White House counsel’s office and the Justice Department floated the idea of a new declaration this week during a closed-door meeting with Republican senators.The White House has said it plans to impose the tariffs under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which allows the president to take unilateral action to counter an “unusual and extraordinary threat” in times of national emergency. But a new national emergency is likely to spark widespread opposition on Capitol Hill from Republicans and Democrats who say Trump is overstepping his tariff authority and also could draw fresh legal challenges.

Mexico to send its national guard to its southern border, talks with the US to resume Friday  - Mexico will send its national guard to its border with Guatemala to stem the flow of undocumented migrants who are entering Mexico on the way to the U.S., Reuters reported Thursday. The move comes as Mexico tries to hash out a deal with the Trump administration to avoid new tariffs. “We have explained that there are 6,000 men and that they will be deployed there,” Mexico’s Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard told reporters after meeting with U.S. negotiators, according to the news agency. Talks between U.S. and Mexican officials began on Wednesday and resumed on Thursday. They were poised to continue Thursday evening at the State Department, according to a key Mexican government negotiator. If the two countries can’t work out an agreement by Monday, President Donald Trump said he will slap 5% tariffs on all goods imported from Mexico. A White House official told NBC News that “significant progress is being made on the talks.” Barcena told CNBC on Thursday that negotiators had “a very good discussion, a very good debate.” She said that the Mexican delegation “explained to [the U.S.] all the enforcement measures that Mexico is taking” to address immigration issues. But the talks aren’t over yet, Barcena said: “We are still talking about all the legal aspects of the cooperation that we are having on migration.”

Mexico freezes bank accounts in widening migration clampdown (Reuters) - The Mexican Finance Ministry said on Thursday it blocked the bank accounts of 26 people for their alleged involvement in human trafficking, as Mexico broadens its migration clampdown under intense pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump. The ministry’s Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) said in a statement it froze the accounts due to “probable links with human trafficking and illegal aid to migrant caravans.” The FIU added that it would present the cases to the Attorney General’s office. The United States is looking for Mexico to target people-smuggling organizations as part of a package of actions on immigration to stave off punitive tariffs threatened by Trump. The move comes a day after the government sent soldiers and armed police to block a large group of migrants crossing into Mexico from Guatemala, detaining at least 350, and arrested two prominent migrant rights activists in Mexico City.

Trump says there’s a ‘good chance’ Mexico averts tariffs with deal including purchase of farm goods - President Donald Trump said Friday that Mexico may be able to avert tariffs on its goods by purchasing American agricultural products. Trump had previously said that escalating tariffs would be imposed, starting Monday, until Mexico took steps to stem unlawful immigration to the U.S. “If we are able to make the deal with Mexico, & there is a good chance that we will, they will begin purchasing Farm & Agricultural products at very high levels, starting immediately,” Trump wrote in a post on Twitter. “If we are unable to make the deal, Mexico will begin paying Tariffs at the 5% level on Monday!” The Mexican peso hit session highs after Trump’s tweet before edging down. Tariffs are paid by the domestic importer of goods, not the foreign exporter. The tweet was posted while Trump was aboard Air Force One on his way back from Europe. U.S. and Mexican officials were meeting in Washington for the third day of talks aimed at resolving American border security concerns. A White House spokesman did not immediately respond to questions from CNBC about agricultural exports, and the degree to which they were part of talks with Mexico. The Mexican Foreign Ministry did not immediately provide comment. “This seems very odd to me,” said former U.S. Department of Agriculture Chief Economist Joseph Glauber, senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute in Washington. “I am not even sure what a commitment like this would mean since private importers [in Mexico] do most of the buying.” In 2018, the U.S. exported about $19 billion worth of agricultural products to Mexico, making it the second-largest buyer of U.S. farm-related products after Canada.

Trump drops Mexico tariff threat after deal on migrants - President Trump said Friday evening he would drop plans to impose sweeping tariffs on Mexico after the United States' southern neighbor agreed to take new steps to crack down on illegal migration.The decision—reached three days before the tariffs were set to take effect—averts a possible showdown with Congress and could soothe jittery financial markets that have been rattled by the proposed duties, which lawmakers and experts warned could damage the U.S. economy.“I am pleased to inform you that The United States of America has reached a signed agreement with Mexico. The Tariffs scheduled to be implemented by the U.S. on Monday, against Mexico, are hereby indefinitely suspended,” Trump tweeted.Trump said the Mexican government would “take strong measures to stem the tide of Migration through Mexico, and to our Southern Border.” Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard confirmed on Twitter that a deal had been reached to avert the tariffs. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in a statement Friday thanked Ebrard “for his hard work to negotiate a set of joint obligations that benefit both the United States and Mexico.” As part of the deal reached Friday, Mexico has agreed to deploy its national guard throughout the country to help apprehend migrants and fight gangs, boost intelligence sharing with the U.S. and allow the U.S. to deport migrants seeking asylum to Mexico to await adjudication, the State Department said. Mexico this week froze the assets of more than two dozen entities believed to be involved in human trafficking and deployed 6,000 members of its newly-created national guard to its southeast border in an effort to contain groups of migrants crossing from Guatemala.

Mnuchin says Trump can still impose tariffs if Mexico does not live up to immigration deal 0 Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said Saturday that President Donald Trump still has the authority to impose tariffs on Mexico if it does not live up to the terms of a deal to strengthen immigration enforcement and stem the migration of people from Central America to the U.S. southern border.Mnuchin, speaking in an interview with Reuters on the sidelines of the G-20 finance ministers meeting in Japan, said the immigration deal struck last night between the two countries had met Trump’s objectives in addressing the issue of Central American migration.Mnuchin warned, however, that Trump could still impose tariffs if the administration determines that Mexico is not abiding by the deal. “Our expectation is that Mexico will do what they’ve committed to do and our expectation is that we won’t need to put tariffs in place, but obviously if that’s not the case, the president retains that authority,” Mnuchin told Reuters. Trump announced Friday evening that the U.S would “indefinitely” suspend planned tariffs against Mexico, which were scheduled to go into effect on Monday. In return, Mexico agreed to deploy its national guard to crack down on Central American migrants travelling through the country on their way to the U.S. southern border. The Mexican government also agreed to take back migrants who had crossed the U.S. southern border to claim asylum. Those migrants would remain in Mexico until the U.S. makes a decision on their asylum claims.

Trump is playing a risky game by weaponizing US economic power with tariffs - The effectiveness of President Donald Trump’s unprecedented weaponization of tariffs in addressing non-trade issues is facing its most significant tests yet in Mexico and China. In the case of Mexico, he had threatened new 5% tariffs on Mexican goods – which were to be imposed as early as Monday. The aim was to force the Mexican government to stem the flood of undocumented migrants across U.S. borders. The United States and Mexico reached a deal Friday night in which Trump dropped the tariff threat in return for Mexico’s commitment to increased immigration enforcement. In the case of China, Beijing officials have grown convinced that the Trump administration’s aim is – at the very least – to alter the way the autocratic capitalist regime does business. At the very most, they believe Trump officials would like to slow or stop China’s rise and perhaps change the regime itself. A draft trade agreement, which U.S. officials say the Chinese initially accepted before rejecting, appears to have included a Chinese commitment to change its laws to rein in illegal tech transfers, intellectual property theft and anti-competitive state subsidies. No one disputes, least of all Mexican officials themselves, that Mexico should do more to help the United States address the migrant problem. Last month, U.S. officials apprehended or refused entry to more than 144,000 people who crossed the southern border illegally, the most in a single month in some five years. That number has grown consistently since January, fueled by the fear of even tougher restrictions to come and a desire to get in the door before it shuts.

US uses solitary confinement as weapon against detained immigrants - A report released last month by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) documents the widespread use of solitary confinement by US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) against detained immigrants. The report shows that, far from being a tactic of last resort to protect detainees in especially violent situations, ICE detention facilities use solitary confinement to terrorize, discipline and punish workers and young people caught up in the Trump administration’s escalating war on immigrants. The United Nations special rapporteur on torture has argued that solitary confinement should be banned except in “very exceptional circumstances,” that isolation for more than 15 days constitutes “inhuman and degrading treatment,” and that those with mental illness should never be placed in isolation. The ICIJ report found that over the course of both the Obama and Trump administrations, ICE has consistently and systematically violated all of these tenets. Immigrants at the Central Processing Center in McAllen, Texas [source: US Customs and Border Protection] Based on an unprecedented review of over 8,400 reports filed over five years (2012-2017), the “Solitary Voices” investigation was conducted as a multinational effort, carried out by the ICIJ in conjunction with Grupo SIn (Guatemala), Mexicanos contra la corrupcion (Mexico), NBC News, the Intercept and Univision (US). Over the course of five months, the journalists involved in the project carried out interviews with dozens of former detainees and pored over innumerable audits, memos and incident reports obtained through a public records request. They were also aided by Ellen Gallagher, a whistleblower from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), who has gone public for the first time after spending years trying to sound the alarm about ICE’s abuse of solitary confinement. Speaking to NBC news, Gallagher said she had decided to go public after what were essentially five fruitless years of trying to reform the system from within. All that her efforts yielded were several internal audits that were critical of ICE and a previously unreported letter in June 2015 from the Senate Judiciary Committee to Jeh Johnson (Obama’s DHS secretary), which questioned the use of solitary confinement by ICE. In the meantime, as Gallagher pointed out, “People were being brutalized.”

  Three immigrants die in US custody in three days --Three immigrants died in US custody in the three days between Saturday, June 1, and Monday June 3. There is far more involved in these and many other deaths of immigrants than tragic oversights by individual agents or mismanagement by particular detention centers. It is US government policy that innocent people—men, women and children—should suffer and die in order to discourage others fleeing violence and poverty in their home countries from seeking refuge in the United States. The risks are calibrated to outweigh any “pull factors” that attract workers to make the harrowing and often deadly trek through Central America and across the Mexican desert into the US. Johana Medina Leon, a 25-year-old transgender asylum seeker from El Salvador, died Saturday at the Del Sol Medical Center in El Paso, Texas, after being held in Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) custody for nearly two months. Medina Leon had been held at the Otero County Processing Center in New Mexico, a detention facility half an hour north of El Paso operated on behalf of the federal government by the for-profit Management and Training Corporation (MTC). The Otero facility is notorious for reports of assault, sexual harassment and medical neglect. According to the Nation, Medina Leon had spent months in Juarez on the Mexican side of the border waiting for her asylum claim to be heard. She was forced to remain in limbo in Mexico due to new restrictions implemented by the Trump administration before she was finally admitted to the US on April 11 by Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and transferred to ICE custody several days later. Despite repeated complaints of ill health, Medina Leon did not receive medical attention until she complained of chest pains and requested an HIV test on May 28. She tested positive for the disease and was transferred to the hospital. ICE quickly processed her case and approved her for release on parole. Four days later she was dead.

 90% Of 'Catch-And-Release' Illegals Fail To Show Up For Immigration Hearings - Approximately 90% of illegal aliens detained and then released into the United States while they await their asylum hearings fail to show up to their court dates, according to a recent pilot program conducted b Immigrations and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and the Department of Justice (DOJ).   And as Breitbart's John Binder notes, "Since December 21, 2018, DHS has released at least 190,500 border crossers and illegal aliens into the interior of the United States." What's more, the 'catch-and-release' system often results in work permits which allow migrants to take jobs in the United States while awaiting their asylum claims - which of course hurts low-income Americans the most.   ICE officials told Congress last month that around 87% of illegal aliens skip out on their asylum hearings, forcing the agency to attempt to locate and deport each offender - which is nearly impossible given available resources.

State Department Requiring Visa Applicants to Reveal Social Media Accounts, Raising Deportation Concerns The State Department Friday put new regulations in place for visa applicants, requiring disclosure of social media accounts, a move that critics worry could lead to an easier path for deportations.Applicants for visas will be required to provide a list of their social media account usernames, email addresses, and phone numbers upon applying. These restrictions, which AP reported will affect up to 15 million people a year, were previously only used for applicants who were flagged by the department.In an interview with Common Dreams, Dan Feidt, a reporter with Unicorn Riot and privacy advocate, speculated that the new rules could be used to expedite deportation proceedings. "They can falsely attribute some social media activity to you and claim you lied about it," said Feidt. Feidt added that he believes the new rules could provide a bigger "attack surface" for the government to target applicants with—giving more of a chance that the government could find inconsistencies to then use as the justification for deportation.  "It's a much larger set of info they can claim you potentially lied about and get at you with," said Feidt. "Before, you had to provide less info to United States Citizenship and Immigration Services, so there was less to get attacked about."

Extreme Vetting Begins- U.S. Visa Applicants Must Now Turn Over Their Social Media History -  The Trump administration has implemented a new policy, effective Friday, that asks most US visa applicants to provide information on their use of social media. Even temporary visitors will be required to list their social media identifiers in a drop-down menu, along with other personal information, when applying according to The Hill.  Applicants for visas will be given the option to say that they don’t use social media, but if they are found to be lying, they could face "serious immigration consequences", according to a U.S. Department of State official. A spokesperson for the Department of State said: “This is a critical step forward in establishing enhanced vetting of foreign nationals seeking entry into the United States. As we’ve seen around the world in recent years, social media can be a major forum for terrorist sentiment and activity. This will be a vital tool to screen out terrorists, public safety threats, and other dangerous individuals from gaining immigration benefits and setting foot on U.S. soil."   These identifiers will be incorporated into more traditional background checks and examined against watchlists that are generated by the US government. In the future, applicants are also going to be required to disclose more extensive information on their travel history. These two changes result from a March 2017 executive order targeting "extreme vetting", issued by President Trump. The state department had since noted its intent to implement the policy in March 2018.  The order is partly the result of the deadly shooting of 14 people in San Bernardino, California in 2015. The Obama administration faced criticism after the shooting since the shooter's wife, Tashfeen Malik, had declared "terrorist sympathies" on social media before she was granted a U.S. visa. Trump's executive order is called "Protecting The Nation From Foreign Terrorist Entry Into The United States."

Chaos as Trump Administration Bans Cruises From Visiting Cuba — The Trump Administration has made clear that their anger toward Venezuela’s government also extends to Cuba, and this was shown again today with the administration imposing new restrictions to prevent Americans ever setting foot on Cuban soil.The new restrictions target educational trips as well as cruise ships, forbidden all cruises from stopping in Cuba for recreational purposes. There was no grace period for ships already en route.This created immediate chaos among cruise operators, and a number of scheduled cruises that were to stop in Cuba as part of their voyages have uncertain futures, with Carnival Corp saying they won’t be going to Cuba, but they will be going someplace in the future. Some reports claimed the move was meant to punish Cuba for its ties to Venezuela, though others suggested that the administration had an interest in punishing companies that had resumed operations in travel to Cuba during the Obama era, when legal restrictions were lifted.

  Judge Tosses Border Wall Lawsuit Brought By House Democrats -- A Washington DC district court judge tossed out a lawsuit brought by House Democrats seeking to halt President Trump's reallocation of funds for a southern border wall.  Judge Trevor McFadden ruled that the matter is fundamentally political and Democrats lack standing to bring a legal case.In February, Trump declared a national emergency over the flood of migrants at the southern border which have overwhelmed the US immigration system. Shortly after, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and other House Democrats filed their lawsuit, claiming that Trump was "stealing from appropriated funds" and would be in violation of the Appropriations Clause of the Constitution. The politicians contended that this constituted an "institutional injury" to the separation of powers.  McFadden, a Trump appointee and former DOJ official, disagreed - writing in his opinion: "This case presents a close question about the appropriate role of the Judiciary in resolving disputes between the other two branches of the Federal Government. To be clear, the court does not imply that Congress may never sue the Executive to protect its powers," adding "The Court declines to take sides in this fight between the House and the President." "This is a case about whether one chamber of Congress has the “constitutional means” to conscript the Judiciary in a political turf war with the President over the implementation of legislation. ... [W]hile the Constitution bestows upon Members of the House many powers, it does not grant them standing to hale the Executive Branch into court claiming a dilution of Congress’s legislative authority. The Court therefore lacks jurisdiction to hear the House’s claims and will deny its motion." — Judge Trevor McFadden

Nation With Crumbling Bridges and Roads Excited to Build Giant Wall - Borowitz —As America’s bridges, roads, and other infrastructure dangerously deteriorate from decades of neglect, there is a mounting sense of urgency that it is time to build a giant wall. Across the U.S., whose rail system is a rickety antique plagued by deadly accidents, Americans are increasingly recognizing that building a wall with Mexico, and possibly another one with Canada, should be the country's top priority. Harland Dorrinson, the executive director of a Washington-based think tank called the Center for Responsible Immigration, believes that most Americans favor the building of border walls over extravagant pet projects like structurally sound freeway overpasses. "The estimated cost of a border wall with Mexico is five billion dollars," he said. "We could easily blow the same amount of money on infrastructure repairs and have nothing to show for it but functioning highways." Congress has dragged its feet on infrastructure spending in recent years, but Dorrinson senses growing support in Washington for building a giant border wall. "Even if for some reason we don't get the Mexicans to pay for it, five billion is a steal," he said. While some think that America’s declining infrastructure is a national-security threat, Dorrinson strongly disagrees. "If immigrants somehow get over the wall, the condition of our bridges and roads will keep them from getting very far," he said.

Federal aid headed to Missouri, Kansas as disaster bill passes after weeks of delay - Communities in Kansas and Missouri ravaged by floods and tornadoes will be getting much needed federal relief dollars now that Congress has approved a $19 billion disaster aid bill after weeks of delay. The U.S. House passed the bill Monday evening with a wide bipartisan majority, 354 to 58. The bill, which passed the Senate last month, now heads to President Donald Trump’s desk for his signature. Trump has already approved disaster declarations for both Missouri and Kansas following weeks of devastating flooding in the Midwest. Passage will allow federal aid into communities in the Kansas City region recovering from the one-two punch of floods and recent tornadoes. “We’ve all felt the pain as floodwaters have overtopped or punched through levees, inundating homes, businesses, and farms,” said Rep. Sam Graves, who was the only Missouri Republican to support an earlier version of the bill last month. This time around every Missouri lawmaker supported the bill regardless of party.

 Trump signs $19 billion disaster relief bill and says Puerto Rico ‘should love’ him - President Donald Trump said he signed a long awaited $19 billion disaster relief bill on Thursday to give aid to states and territories ravaged by storms. The delayed legislation will send funds to the hurricane-battered island of Puerto Rico and to states damaged by hurricanes, flooding, wildfires and earthquakes. The recipients include California, Florida, Georgia and Iowa. “Just signed Disaster Aid Bill to help Americans who have been hit by recent catastrophic storms,” Trump tweeted on Thursday along with a photo of him holding a signed document. “So important for our GREAT American farmers and ranchers.” He also contended that “Puerto Rico should love President Trump.” The president claimed the island “would have been shut out” without him. Hurricane Maria hit Puerto Rico in September 2017. The storm knocked out power for 1.5 million people and it took 11 months to restore it. The island’s government estimated the hurricane caused nearly 3,000 deaths. Trump’s response to the devastation on the island has been widely criticized. Congress failed to approve the aid money quickly in no small part because Trump did not want to give more relief funds to the U.S. territory. As Democrats insisted in early May that an aid package include money for Puerto Rico’s recovery, Trump tweeted that the island “should be very happy and the Dems should stop blocking much needed Disaster Relief!” In the same tweet, Trump falsely claimed that Puerto Rico got $91 billion in federal recovery funds, more than “any State in the history of the U.S.” But Congress had only allocated about $41 billion to Puerto Rico at the time — well below the estimated $120 billion in aid money given after Hurricane Katrina, according to PolitiFact.

Trump Administration Adopted Strategy to Weaken Home Health Care Unions.  - EARLIER THIS MONTH, the Trump administration announced a new rule barring home health care workers from paying union dues through their Medicaid-funded wages. The new Department of Health and Human Services rule, which will impact more than 800,000 workers and was immediately met with a legal challenge, followed years of planning by anti-union activists to promote such measures in states across the country, and, more recently, on the federal level.In anticipation of a crushing blow to public-sector unions by the U.S. Supreme Court last summer, conservative groups ramped up their efforts to bring the federal government’s attention to the issue of Medicaid-funded union dues, according to an audio recording obtained by The Intercept and Documented.On an invitation-only call with donors last June, leaders with the State Policy Network — a corporate-backed umbrella group of right-wing think tanks across the country — raised the issue of directly deducting union dues from Medicaid-funded paychecks, what they call “dues-skimming.” Vinnie Vernuccio, a labor policy adviser to the State Policy Network told donors that its plan was to end this practice by getting “an administrative rule passed at Health and Human Services” and passing federal legislation with the assistance of Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, R-Wash.The legislation has not yet come — despite a promise from McMorris Rodgers announced at the start of 2018 that she would introduce a bill to this effect. The Department of Health and Human Services, however, announced less than two months after the call that it would consider amending its Obama-era rule, which it ultimately did this May. On the call, Vernuccio touted that the State Policy Network “is the only group that’s driving this effort at a national level.” A spokesperson for McMorris Rodgers did not respond to requests for comment.  None of the five call leaders returned The Intercept’s requests for comment. Instead, SPN spokesperson Carrie Conko reached out and said she would address any inquiries. She wrote in an email that her coalition plans to keep fighting in Washington “on behalf of those who would rather not see their hard earned money siphoned from their paychecks and into big union’s political and lobbying activities.”

Supreme Court rejects Obama-era rule change on Medicare reimbursements - The Supreme Court on Monday ruled that an Obama-era rule change on how Medicare reimbursements to hospitals are made should be removed, because officials did not follow the proper notice and comment regulations in implementing the formula. The court ruled 7-1 to vacate the rule, with Justice Neil Gorsuch writing the majority opinion. Justice Stephen Breyer was the sole dissenting member of the court, and Justice Brett Kavanaugh was not involved in the case.

Trump’s Plan to Deny Benefits: Pretend People Aren’t Poor -- Bryce Covert, Nation - Donald Trump, who has long played fast and loose with measurements of his wealth, is no fan of numerical accuracy. But his administration’s latest move to monkey with economic data could have a devastating impact on the poor.  The change is technical: The White House proposes to use a different definition of inflation to update the income level below which the federal government says someone lives in poverty. Right now, a family of four must have an income of $25,750 or less a year to qualify as poor. Instead of using the Consumer Price Index to update that figure, the administration wants to use the Chained CPI, which, rather than measure the price of a fixed set of goods, tries to factor in shifts to cheaper options as prices change. Boring, right? Except that the official poverty line determines who is eligible for public benefits like food stamps, Head Start, the Children’s Health Insurance Program, parts of Medicaid, and a variety of other programs. The Chained CPI rises more slowly than the regular CPI—ignoring the fact that poor families usually face sharper price increases and have less room to economize their choices. At first, the difference might not be huge, but it snowballs. Over a decade, using the Chained CPI would mean more than 300,000 children would lose access to Medicaid or CHIP and more than 250,000 seniors and people with disabilities would lose help paying for Medicare health coverage. Millions fewer people would be able to take advantage of lifesaving programs. This is not to say that the way we measure poverty now is working. The current standard is based on a 1955 survey of household consumption, which took a subsistence food budget for a family of four and multiplied it by three to account for the fact that the average family at the time spent a third of its income on food. This is the number that gets increased every year to keep up with inflation. To say it’s outdated is an understatement. According to Rebecca M. Blank, a former senior fellow in economic studies at the Brookings Institution and now the chancellor of the University of Wisconsin–Madison, no other economic statistic uses such antiquated data and methods. Today, a typical family spends a lot less of its budget on food than families did in the 1950s. At the same time, other important costs have skyrocketed, such as housing, health care, and child care. Thus, the poverty line ends up being unrealistically low: In the 1960s, it fell at 50 percent of the median income for a family of four; now it’s at 28 percent. That means a whole lot of people have too much money to be officially poor but still experience deprivation. The Trump administration isn’t proposing to fix this. It wants to water down the definition of poverty so that fewer and fewer people fall under it. It denies this country’s reality, in which more than 15 million experience periods when they can’t afford all the food they need.

White House Pushing to Help Prisoners Before Their Release - The White House is racing to help an estimated 2,200 federal prisoners line up work and housing before they are released next month, according to several policy experts and prisoner advocates who have been involved in the effort.The early release is made possible by the First Step Act, a federal law passed with bipartisan support in December that is aimed at refocusing the criminal justice system on rehabilitation. The prisoners scheduled to be let out in July are the largest group to be freed so far. Their sentences are being reduced thanks to a clause that goes into effect next month, which effectively increased the amount of credit prisoners could get for good conduct in custody.The intent of the law was to train people before they leave prison to find work and to screen them for any risk they might pose to public safety, but it’s unlikely that those steps will occur before a looming legal deadline.Members of the bipartisan group that pushed for the new law are eager to celebrate the early releases, but they also are concerned that the inmates aren’t adequately prepared to land jobs, find housing or obtain transportation from prison to the places they will now live. Much of that help was supposed to come through programs within the First Step Act, but Congress has not yet funded the five-month-old law, and the Department of Justice has so far failed to allocate significant funding from its budget for it. Much is at stake if the prisoners fail on the outside. Future criminal justice reforms—including efforts to revise rigid sentences, offer more alternatives to prisons and reconsider old drug laws—could be set back if dozens of people reoffend and go back to prison or if someone commits a high-profile crime. About 45 percent of people released from federal prison go back within five years, according to a U.S. Sentencing Commission study. Rearrests could also jeopardize congressional funding for the First Step Act, which has had a wide-ranging effect on the federal justice system. The law has already limited the length of sentences for drug crimes, improved prisoner treatment and cleared the way for more inmates with serious health problems to finish their sentences at home.

Trump Calls For AT&T Boycott To Force Big Changes At CNN -- President Trump and his family might be about to meet Queen Elizabeth II for a historic state visit, but despite the momentous occasion, the president's mind appears elsewhere, as he has been tweeting at a constant clip since landing in the UK a few hours ago. In one string of tweets, the president lamented the fact that CNN  - which just announced a round of layoffs at its London office - "is the primary source of news available from the US. After watching it for a short while, I turned it off."Trump described the coverage as "all negative & so much Fake News, very bad for US. Big ratings drop."Then he asked: "Why doesn't owner @ATT do something?," before exhorting Americans to boycott AT&T to force the company, which recently bought CNN owner Time Warner in a deal that was aggressively opposed by the Trump DoJ, to make "big changes" at the cable news channel. "When the world watches @CNN, it gets a false picture of the USA. Sad!"

House Democrats propose $4,500 pay raise for Congress - House spending leaders want to break a decadelong pay freeze and give members of Congress a cost-of-living bump that could pad their salaries with an extra $4,500 next year. Congressional salaries have been frozen at about $174,000 since 2009, when Democrats controlled Congress and decided to suspend automatic cost-of-living increases while heading into the 2010 election year.Now, House Democrats say they are moving forward with fiscal 2020 funding bills that won’t block those pay increases, which are guaranteed by a 1989 federal ethics law.“There is strong bipartisan support for these modest inflation adjustments,” said Evan Hollander, a spokesperson for the House Appropriations Committee, noting that the panel does not have to take action to allow the automatic increases and will simply be forgoing language that would block the raises.“If members want to alter or eliminate the [cost-of-living adjustment], they should do so through the authorizing process — not appropriations bills,” Hollander said. Under current law, lawmakers would receive a 2.6 percent pay adjustment, or $4,500, in January. But boosting congressional pay is always politically difficult. “I think the American people would think that Congress ought to earn it first,” Senate Appropriations Chairman Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) told reporters this week.

Democratic Chiefs of Staff Coached on Schmoozing With Lobbyists at Retreat -- DEMOCRATIC CHIEFS OF STAFF gathered on Thursday for a retreat to hash out strategy for the coming year and orient themselves in Washington. One of the key agenda items: “How to Engage Downtown.” “Downtown” in Washington is a reference to K Street, where the city’s lobbying industry has set up shop. Downtown is the destination for many a chief of staff in their post-congressional career, and that knowledge — as much or even more than campaign contributions — helps shape legislative strategies. The annual retreat is hosted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which is chaired by Rep. Cheri Bustos, an Illinois Democrat. A spokesperson for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., referred questions on the retreat to the DCCC, which didn’t immediately respond. The Washington retreat concludes with a happy hour, at which the chiefs can “meet members of the DC Downtown Community.” The “downtown community,” on the panel on how to engage with lobbyists, is represented at the retreat by Jonathan Smith, an Uber lobbyist and former chief of staff to a House Democrat, as well as Virgil Miller, a lobbyist with Akin Gump, a powerhouse firm in Washington. There is no agenda item focused on how to engage with the new progressive energy in the party pushing for a Green New Deal, Medicare for All, or other sweeping reforms..

Assange won’t face charges over role in devastating CIA leak -  The Justice Department has decided not to charge Julian Assange for his role in exposing some of the CIA’s most secret spying tools, according to a U.S. official and two other people familiar with the case. It’s a move that has surprised national security experts and some former officials, given prosecutors’ recent decision to aggressively go after the WikiLeaks founder on more controversial Espionage Act charges that some legal experts said would not hold up in court. The decision also means that Assange will not face punishment for publishing one of the CIA’s most potent arsenals of digital code used to hack devices, dubbed Vault 7. The leak — one of the most devastating in CIA history — not only essentially rendered those tools useless for the CIA, it gave foreign spies and rogue hackers access to them. Prosecutors were stymied by several factors. First, the government is facing a ticking clock in its efforts to extradite Assange to the United States from the United Kingdom, where he is being held. Extradition laws require the U.S. to bring any additional charges against Assange within 60 days of the first indictment, which prosecutors filed in March, accusing Assange of helping former Army intelligence analyst Chelsea Manning hack into military computers. Second, prosecutors were worried about the sensitivity of the Vault 7 materials, according to an official familiar with the deliberations over whether to charge Assange. Broaching such a classified subject in court risks exposing even more CIA secrets, legal experts said. The CIA has never officially confirmed the authenticity of the leaked documents, even though analysts widely believe them to be authentic.GOP attorneys release a devastating video that lays out the case for Trump’s prosecution - A group of prominent Republican attorneys this week released a new video arguing that President Donald Trump would have been charged with obstruction of justice by special counsel Robert Mueller had Department of Justice guidelines allowed for the indictment of a sitting president. The video features three prominent lawyers who have served under Republican presidents: Jeffrey Harris, who served as deputy associate Attorney General under President Ronald Reagan; Paul Rosenzweig, a deputy assistant Secretary of Homeland Security for former President George W. Bush; and Donald Ayer, who served as deputy Attorney General for George H.W. Bush. The attorneys begin the video by arguing that Attorney General Bill Barr did not present a “fair and accurate” summary of special counsel Robert Mueller’s report on Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election, and they say he left out important information to make the report seem far less damning than it actually was with regards to whether the president obstructed justice. “Obstruction of justice and perjury are far more important than most normal crimes,” Rosenzweig explains to viewers. “They go to the absolute core of how the rule of law functions in this society.” Toward the end of the video, Ayer threw down the gauntlet at GOP lawmakers who have been brushing off the Mueller report as a nonstory. “One of the most disturbing things to me is the conduct of Republicans, in the Senate and in the House,” he said. “These are actually smart people. They know that there is a damning case, in the Mueller report, of obstruction of justice by the president, and they are acting like it’s not. And that’s just flatly dishonest. And they seem to be doing it because they think Trump is the only game in town.”

The House Is Right to Move Toward an Impeachment Inquiry - Lawfare  -- It has been a month since the public release of the Mueller report, and House Democrats are still arguing over the merits of opening an impeachment inquiry. The Democratic leadership seems to be more or less in the same place it was immediately after the report’s release, when House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, before walking his comments back, told the press that impeachment proceedings were “not worthwhile.” Even after Republican Rep. Justin Amash called for the president’s impeachment over the weekend, House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi said that she had not changed her mind about the downsides of an impeachment inquiry. But both the Washington Post and Politico have reported on dissent within Pelosi’s caucus, particularly among Democratic members of the House Committee on the Judiciary, and some of that disagreement is now spilling over into the public eye: The committee’s second-ranking Democrat, Mary Gay Scanlon, announced on May 21 that “the time has come to start an impeachment inquiry,” and Rep. Jamie Raskin of both the judiciary and oversight committees argued in the Post that “the logic of an impeachment inquiry is pretty overwhelming at this point.” Shortly after the report’s release, Susan Hennessey and I wrote that if the House of Representatives “wants to actually confront the substance of the report, it will introduce a resolution to begin an impeachment inquiry.” The same is true today. The need for an inquiry is, as Raskin says, “overwhelming”—but the longer the House waits to take up its constitutional responsibility, the more it weakens its own case. As Hennessey and I argued, the president’s conduct as described in the Mueller report amply meets the standard for beginning an impeachment inquiry. President Trump has lied repeatedly to the American people about the existence of a plot by a foreign government to interfere in a democratic election, and about his campaign’s connections to that plot; he repeatedly sought to abuse his power by impeding or doing away with an investigation into his own behavior; and he pressed for groundless investigations into his political opponents. Influenced by the Office of Legal Counsel’s (OLC) opinion prohibiting indictment of a sitting president, the special counsel withholds judgment on whether Trump committed a crime. But the report itself hints that, even with the door closed to prosecution, judgment of Trump’s conduct is squarely the responsibility of Congress.

 Dems won’t impeach Trump but can’t stop talking about it - House Democrats can't stop talking about impeaching Donald Trump, yet they blame everyone else for their predicament. Democrats slam Trump as “lawless” and “a threat to democracy” in one breath, then in the next say they won’t impeach him and knock the media for asking about it. They’re infuriated when Trump refuses to comply with subpoenas, saying he’s trying to “goad” them into impeaching him, yet refuse to do anything more than file another lawsuit. And party leaders repeatedly insist Democrats can “walk and chew gum at the same time” — investigate Trump while pushing their own legislative agenda — but there hasn’t been much walking or chewing lately. “Because you’re really interested in it and it’s a really hot-button item, I think you tend to overplay the status in the caucus,” House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) told to reporters Tuesday when asked about impeachment. But 15 minutes later, in the same news conference, Hoyer conceded the obvious: The debate over whether to impeach Trump dominates all discussion within the House Democratic Caucus and on Capitol Hill. “We're all talking about this, just as you're all talking about it,” Hoyer said. This is their life right now, and Democrats haven’t found a way out of their dilemma. Speaker Nancy Pelosi thinks impeachment is a bad idea without GOP support — of which there is almost none — but refuses to shut the door on it entirely, fearing doing so would alienate the party base. Other Democratic leaders, such as House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, suggest impeachment is inevitable one day only to back away the next. Democrats’ internal polling shows it’s not a hot topic for voters, yet for outside activists, it’s the only issue, one they believe will define the party for years to come.

Pelosi Tells Dem Leaders She Wants To See Trump 'In Prison' - As we've previously explained, Nancy Pelosi has been desperately searching for an excuse to avoid starting impeachment proceedings against President Trump (that is, until Dems are certain they have the popular political support to justify trying to remove him from office).Earlier this week, the Speaker of the House added what we saw as a novel excuse: Pelosi would rather Trump avoid impeachment and instead face prosecution as a private citizen after leaving office. Or at least that's what she told Jerry Nadler, Politico reports. Nadler and other committee leaders have been enmeshed in a private behind the scenes battle over who will 'own' the Dems' sprawling investigation into Trump.During a meeting this week, Pelosi again rebuffed Nadler, who again asked the speaker’s permission to launch an impeachment inquiry, according to Politico's sources.Pelosi explained that she doesn't want to see Trump impeached, she wants to see him in prison.  "I don’t want to see him impeached, I want to see him in prison," Politico reported Pelosi as saying to Nadler. Pelosi spokeswoman Ashley Etienne told Politico that Pelosi and several House chairmen "had a productive meeting about the state of play with the Mueller report."House Intelligence Chairman Adam Schiff, Oversight Chairman Elijah Cummings, Ways and Means Chairman Richard Neal and Foreign Affairs Chairman Eliot Engel were also present for the meeting, while Financial Services Chairwoman Maxine Waters wasn't.Showing how Democrats are increasingly split on the issue, Cummings sided with Pelosi, while Richard Neal, the chairman of ways and means, lamented that the decision by more Democrats to publicly endorse impeachment has been polarizing. In a comment that appeared to be directed at AOC, some members complained that junior lawmakers appeared to be setting the party's agenda on the issue. Asked if he and Pelosi were on the same page, Nadler equivocated, saying only that when it was time to make a decision, Pelosi would have the single largest voice.

It's All A Fraud - Deceptive Edits Found In Mueller Report - Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA) on Saturday called for the immediate release of "all backup and source information" for the Mueller report after internet sleuth @almostjingo (Rosie Memos) discovered that the special counsel's office deceptively edited content which was then cited as evidence of possible obstruction.  "It's all a fraud" tweeted Nunes, replying to a tweet by @JohnWHuber (Undercover Huber), who also posted a comparison between the Mueller report and a newly released transcript of a November 2017 voicemail message left by former Trump lawyer John Dowd, in which he asked former national security adviser Michael Flynn's attorney for a "heads up" if Flynn was planning on saying anything that might damage the president.  Mueller's team omitted key context suggesting that Dowd was trying to strongarm Flynn and possibly obstruct justice by shaping witness testimony, while the actual voicemail reveals that Dowd was careful not to tread into obstruction territory in what was a friendly and routine call between lawyers.  This is why we need all backup and source documentation for the #muellerdossier released publicly. It’s all a fraud... https://t.co/wMjRkHJ5j4 — Devin Nunes (@DevinNunes) June 1, 2019 Dowd qualifies his request by saying "without you having to give up any...confidential information" in order to determine "If, on the other hand, we have, there's information that...implicates the President, then we've got a national security issue, or maybe a national security issue, I don't know... some issue, we got to-we got to deal with, not only for the President but for the country."

Princeton Russia Expert Stephen Cohen Asks- How Did 'Russiagate' Begin? - One way to end Russiagate might be to discover how it actually began. Considering what we have learned, or been told, since the allegations became public nearly three years ago, in mid-2016, there seem to be at least three hypothetical possibilities:

• 1. One is the orthodox Russiagate explanation: Early on, sharp-eyed top officials of President Obama’s intelligence agencies, particularly the CIA and FBI, detected truly suspicious “contacts” between Trump’s presidential campaign and Russians “linked to the Kremlin” (whatever that may mean, considering that the presidential administration employs hundreds of people), and this discovery legitimately led to the full-scale “counterintelligence investigation” initiated in July 2016. Indeed, Mueller documented various foreigners who contacted, or who sought to contact, the Trump campaign. The problem here is that Mueller does not tell us, and we do not know, if the number of them was unusual. Many foreigners seek “contacts” with US presidential campaigns and have done so for decades. In this case, we do not know, for the sake of comparison, how many such foreigners had or sought contacts with the rival Clinton campaign, directly or through the Clinton Foundation, in 2016. (Certainly, there were quite a few contacts with anti-Trump Ukrainians, for example.) If the number was roughly comparable, why didn’t US intelligence initiate a counterintelligence investigation of the Clinton campaign?
• 2. The second explanation - currently, and oddly, favored by non-comprehending pro-Trump commentators at Fox News and elsewhere - is that “Putin’s Kremlin” pumped anti-Trump “disinformation” into the American media, primarily through what became known as the Steele Dossier. As I pointed out nearly a year and a half ago, this makes no sense factually or logically. Nothing in the dossier suggests that any of its contents necessarily came from high-level Kremlin sources, as Steele claimed. Moreover, if Kremlin leader Putin so favored Trump, as a Russiagate premise insists, is it really plausible that underlings in the Kremlin would have risked Putin’s ire by furnishing Steele with anti-Trump “information”? On the other hand, there is plenty of evidence that “researchers” in the United States (some, like Christopher Steele, paid by the Clinton campaign) were supplying him with the fruits of their research.
• 3. The third possible explanation—one I have termed “Intelgate,” and that I explore in my recent book War With Russia?: From Putin & Ukraine to Trump & Russiagate — is that US intelligence agencies undertook an operation to damage, if not destroy, first the candidacy and then the presidency of Donald Trump. More evidence of “Intelgate” has since appeared. For example, the intelligence community has said it began its investigation in April 2016 because of a few innocuous remarks by a young, lowly Trump foreign-policy adviser, George Papadopoulos. The relatively obscure Papadopoulos suddenly found himself befriended by apparently influential people he had not previously known, among them Stefan Halper, Joseph Mifsud, Alexander Downer, and a woman calling herself Azra Turk. What we now know—and what Papadopoulos did not know at the time—is that all of them had ties to US and/or UK and Western European intelligence agencies.

GOP Targets Comey And Brennan As Investigations Heat Up - Congressional Republicans have set their sights on former FBI Director James Comey and former CIA Director John Brennan for their roles in the Trump-Russia 'witch hunt' that may have been conducted illegally using flimsy evidence.  In particular, GOP lawmakers along with President Trump are looking to blame the two former intelligence chiefs over the use of the highly controversial Steele report - created by former UK spy Christopher Steele . The dossier, a shadowy document that makes a series of salacious allegations about Trump, has long been a flashpoint for Republicans. Some Republicans allege that FBI investigators relied too heavily on it to obtain a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) warrant on former Trump campaign aide Carter Page. Some of the allegations in the dossier have been verified, while others were proven false or remain unsubstantiated. -The HillIn May, a dispute erupted over whether Comey or Brennan pushed to include the Steele Dossier in the US intelligence community assessment (ICA) on Russian interference. According to Fox News, an email chain exists indicating that Comey told his subordinates that Brennan insisted on the dossier's inclusion, while a former CIA official "put the blame squarely on Comey," according to the report.  According to former Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-SC), communications between Comey and Brennan are the key to unlocking the decisions behind the dossier.  "Whoever is investigating this, tell them to look for emails between Brennan and Comey in December of 2016," Gowdy told Fox News's Sean Hannity last month. Republican lawmakers took Gowdy’s cue.“Comey and Brennan have made a lot of statements, some under oath, about the origins of the Trump Russia investigation, the timing and role of the Steele dossier and reasons for surveillance of Trump campaign officials. As I’ve been saying for awhile now, some of that is inconsistent with the contents of classified documents and the sworn testimony of other witnesses,” Rep. John Ratcliffe (R-Texas), a member of the Judiciary Committee, told The Hill. “And more recently, some of what Brennan and Comey have been saying is now inconsistent with one another. As Attorney General Barr said this morning, it just doesn’t jive. Someone isn’t telling the truth,” he continued. -The Hill

Key figure that Mueller report linked to Russia was a State Department intel source -- In a key finding of the Mueller report, Ukrainian businessman Konstantin Kilimnik, who worked for Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort, is tied to Russian intelligence.But hundreds of pages of government documents — which special counsel Robert Mueller possessed since 2018 — describe Kilimnik as a “sensitive” intelligence source for the U.S. State Department who informed on Ukrainian and Russian matters.Why Mueller’s team omitted that part of the Kilimnik narrative from its report and related court filings is not known. But the revelation of it comes as the accuracy of Mueller’s Russia conclusions face increased scrutiny.The incomplete portrayal of Kilimnik is so important to Mueller’s overall narrative that it is raised in the opening of his report. “The FBI assesses” Kilimnik “to have ties to Russian intelligence,” Mueller’s team wrote on page 6, putting a sinister light on every contact Kilimnik had with Manafort, the former Trump campaign chairman.What it doesn’t state is that Kilimnik was a “sensitive” intelligence source for State going back to at least 2013 while he was still working for Manafort, according to FBI and State Department memos I reviewed.Kilimnik was not just any run-of-the-mill source, either.He interacted with the chief political officer at the U.S. Embassy in Kiev, sometimes meeting several times a week to provide information on the Ukraine government. He relayed messages back to Ukraine’s leaders and delivered written reports to U.S. officials via emails that stretched on for thousands of words, the memos show. The FBI knew all of this, well before the Mueller investigation concluded

 Steele Cuts Deal; Will Discuss Trump Sex Dossier With DOJ Inspector General - Former MI6 agent Christopher Steele has finally agreed to meet with US officials to discuss his relationship with the FBI, and the now-infamous dossier of unfounded claims against Donald Trump which he assembled on behalf of the Clinton campaign and the Democratic National Committee.   The 54-year-old Steele has agreed to meet with investigators from the US Justice Department's Office of the Inspector General (OIG), according to The Times of London, after a former US official told Politico that the OIG report would "try to deeply undermine" Steele.  The news marks a 180-shift in Steele's past refusals to engage with US authorities. In April, Politico reported that Steele would not meet with the OIG to assist them with their investigation, while just last week, Reuters reported that he wouldn't meet with US attorney John Durham, who was handpicked by AG William Barr to review the origins of the Trump-Russia probe.

DOJ takes step toward a bruising antitrust battle with Google - The Justice Department has taken the initial steps toward an antitrust investigation of Google, a clear signal that two years of a bipartisan anti-Silicon Valley backlash in Washington may be yielding concrete action. But such a case, if it comes to pass, would represent a major new antitrust test for the Trump DOJ, which tried, and failed, to block to the merger of AT&T and Time Warner. And any attempt to break up Google — as Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass) and others are proposing — would be a daunting challenge for the government, whose last big split up of a corporate giant was AT&T's former telephone monopoly in 1984. Even so, DOJ officials have begun laying the groundwork for an antitrust probe of Google's search practices, having wrested jurisdiction over the issue away from the Federal Trade Commission, two people close to the situation confirmed to POLITICO late Friday. The Wall Street Journal first reported the development. The department’s move intensifies the already considerable political pressure on Google at a time when lawmakers, regulators and government leaders in Washington, Brussels and beyond are turning a critical eye on the once-favored U.S. tech industry over everything from its mishandling of user data to its role in the subversion of democratic elections. And the action quickly got bipartisan cover with a statement of praise from Warren, a presidential candidate who called earlier this year for breaking up Google, Facebook and Amazon. "I've been talking for years about how Google is locking out competition," Warren said Friday night, adding that it and its fellow online giants "have too much power and they're using that power to hurt small businesses, stifle innovation, and tilt the playing field against everyone else. It's time to fight back." Google dominates the markets for online advertising and search, and has major footholds in email, streaming media, photos, e-books, television, car navigation and even its own branded smartphones. Its parent company, Alphabet, has also ventured into fields like drones and self-driving cars. .

Trump Antitrust Case Against Google Should Scare Tech Industry - This is the moment the U.S. technology superpowers surely knew was coming: The U.S. government is preparing to crawl all over Google to figure out whether it is an abusive monopolist. Google parent company Alphabet Inc. and the other tech giants should be quaking in their fleece vests. Bloomberg News and other news organizations reported late Friday that the U.S. Department of Justice is preparing to open an investigation into Google’s compliance with antitrust laws. If it goes forward, an investigation will no doubt be broad, lengthy, messy, and impossible for Google and its investors to predict. That should terrify Google and every other big technology company — because there’s no guarantee that the antitrust Klieg light will turn on one company alone. The company now called Alphabet has gained more than $500 billion of stock market value since the FTC closed a prior antitrust investigation This isn’t Google’s first antitrust rodeo. The U.S. Federal Trade Commission in 2013 closed without further action its own antitrust investigation into whether Google wielded its dominant web search engine like a cudgel to disadvantage rivals, drive up prices for advertisers and ultimately harm consumers. (Google did agree to some voluntary changes.) Antitrust investigations are difficult to predict, of course. Once the U.S. government pores over every internal email and business development contract, there’s no telling what it will turn up. If the DOJ moves ahead, it will also be an open invitation for every company or individual with a gripe against Google to pile on, and an investigation will embolden critics of Facebook, Amazon and other tech giants as well.

Amazon could face heightened antitrust scrutiny under a new agreement between U.S. regulators - WaPo - Amazon could face heightened antitrust scrutiny under a new agreement between U.S. regulators that puts it under closer watch by the Federal Trade Commission, three people familiar with the matter said.The move is the result of the FTC and the Department of Justice, the U.S. government’s leading antitrust enforcement agencies, quietly divvying up competition oversight of two of the country’s top tech companies, according to those people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the government’s work is confidential. The Justice Department is set to have more jurisdiction over Google, The Washington Post reported on Friday, paving the way for a potential investigation of the search-and-advertising giant.The FTC’s plans for Amazon and the Justice Department’s interest in Google are not immediately clear. But the kind of arrangement brokered between the Justice Department and the FTC typically presages more serious antitrust scrutiny, the likes of which many Democrats and Republicans on Capitol Hill have sought out of fear that tech companies have become too big and powerful. The Justice Department this week declined to comment, citing a policy against confirming or denying investigations. The FTC also declined to comment. Amazon did not immediately have comment. (Jeff Bezos, the founder and chief executive of Amazon, owns The Washington Post.)“If there is an active discussion of where the boundaries are, that would indicate there’s a reason for that discussion, whether it’s a new interest, study or investigation,” said Maureen Ohlhausen, a partner at the law firm Baker Botts who previously served as chair of the FTC.The early moves from the government’s twin antitrust agencies mark the latest attempts by U.S. regulators to better supervise tech giants. Earlier this year, the FTC established a special task force it said would monitor tech and competition, including “investigating any potential anticompetitive conduct in those markets, and taking enforcement actions when warranted.”

 FANGMAN Stocks Crushed by Potential “Unprecedented, Wide-Ranging Probe” into Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon - It’s a rare moment in recent years that US government regulators are suddenly going after four tech and social media giants simultaneously – Facebook, Amazon, Google, and Apple. These four companies are part of my FANGMAN index that also includes Microsoft, Nvidia, and Netflix. The index dove 4.3% today, the biggest percentage decline since the infamous 4.6% drop on December 24, 2018. In terms of dollars, $137 billion in market capitalization was wiped out. Over the past four trading days the FANGMAN index has dropped by 6.6%. I highlighted today’s move in red (market cap data via YCharts):  On Friday, the Wall Street Journal  reported that, according to its sources, the Justice Department “has been laying the groundwork” for an anti-trust investigation into Google, the largest advertising platform in the world. Reuters reported on Monday that Google still “declined comment.”The WSJ summarized the problem:The rise of big tech has seen three corporate titans that didn’t exist 30 years ago – Amazon, Google, and Facebook – suddenly amassing the power to sway large parts of the U.S. economy and society, from the stock market to political discourse, from personal shopping habits to how small businesses sell their wares.With their enormous size and dominance have come network advantages, data caches and economies of scale that can make it challenging for new rivals to succeed. Many firms that compete with those giants in one sector also depend on their platforms to reach customers, and they complain of being unfairly squeezed.Google has already been hit with three mega-fines by the European Union’s antitrust regulators, totaling €8.2 billion in three years:

 Top tech executives will be asked to testify in U.S. probe (Reuters) - Leaders of big tech companies will be asked to testify as part of an investigation into whether the companies misuse their massive market power, the head of the U.S. House Judiciary subcommittee leading the probe said on Tuesday. The comments came a day after sources said the U.S. executive branch is gearing up for a similar probe of Amazon.com Inc, Apple Inc, Facebook Inc and Alphabet Inc’s Google, setting up what could be an unprecedented, wide-ranging investigation of some of the world’s largest companies. The House of Representatives Judiciary Committee opened its own investigation into competition in digital markets on Monday, with both Republicans and Democrats expressing concern about the power exercised by several of the world’s most valuable companies. Representative David Cicilline said “It will be necessary for some of the leaders of the technology companies to be part of this conversation.” The Democrat added he was developing a witness list and that “I expect a number of them will actually testify before the committee or be interviewed as part of the investigation.” House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy, asked on Tuesday about the need for oversight of big tech companies like Google, told a news conference, “I think it’s only right that people look at it,” but added that he did not see how breaking companies up would help with privacy issues. “I personally have a concern about personal privacy,” McCarthy said. Noting a few companies have a lot of market control, he asked “are we allowing the market to work?”

Dozens of naked people, holding up images of nipples, stood outside Facebook to protest against its ban on nudity - Dozens of naked people gathered outside Facebook's office in New York on Sunday as part of an art installation protesting Facebook's ban on nudity.The demonstration, known as #WeTheNipple, was organized by the National Coalition Against Censorship along with the American artist Spencer Tunick, who photographed the nude crowd.Facebook has policies banning nudity on its platform and Instagram. Some artists say this prevents them from sharing their work online."It particularly harms artists whose work focuses on their own bodies, including queer and gender-nonconforming artists, and the bodies of those in their communities. Museums and galleries are constrained when even promoting exhibitions featuring nudes," the NCAC said in a press release for the event. Facebook declined to comment on the event. According to CNN, members of Grab Them By The Ballot, a women's-empowerment group, also participated in the demonstration. "We are here to empower women around body positivity and encourage female voter turnout in 2020," Dawn Robertson, a director of the group, said in a statement before the event. She continued: "This isn't just about shock value and protesting — it's about reclaiming our bodies. Facebook and Instagram have missed this message entirely as they cling to negligent and blatantly misogynist policies that overlook the context of the artistic nudity being posted."

Google Parses Your Gmail For Financial Transactions  -Recently I came across this story  by Todd Haselton that describes how the author located an obscure “purchases” page in his Google account settings and there found a methodical list of his online purchasing history, from third-party outside vendors, going back to 2012. The upshot of the story was that:

• Google saves years of information on purchases you’ve made, even outside Google, and pulls this information from Gmail.
• It’s complicated to delete this private information, and options to turn it off are hidden in privacy settings.
• Google says it doesn’t use this information to sell you ads.

Naturally, I flagged this story for the next edition of our #AxisOfEasy newsletter.  Haselton reports that it isn’t easy to locate and delete this information, nor is there a straight-forward path to find it in your privacy settings to disable this behaviour. The more I thought about this the more I thought “this can’t be true”. I apologize for doubting Haselton, but I thought he had to have it wrong, that maybe he had a stored credit card in his browser that he had forgotten or something, because the ramifications if true, are dire. First, it means that in order to isolate and parse purchases, Google must then be scanning every email, otherwise, how would they know what’s a purchase and what isn’t? Further, if they were scanning every email for purchases, what else where they scanning for? Either now, or in the future? The important mechanism, the infrastructure and methodology to scan and parse every inbound email is clearly in place and operational now, adding additional criterion is just a matter of tweaking the parameters. Then, there is the matter that Google is doing this without informing their users. We can probably wager that there is buried down the rabbit hole of the ToS some clause that alludes to the possibility that Google reserves the right from time to time (including all the time) to do something or another with your email that may or may not involve machine reading it and dissecting it for your behavioural patterns; none of us have ever read it.  As I said, I initially thought that Haselton had perhaps stored credit cards in his Chrome browser and his purchase history was being populated from that. To test it, I configured my gmail account (which I barely use, for anything other than Google news alerts) to receive any email from my Amazon account.  None of my web browsers have any credit cards stored. Then I went and picked up a new audiobook. Sure enough…within seconds, my heretofore empty purchases page, suddenly had an entry:

And So It Begins — The YouTube Purge - Dave Cohen - This week our globalist corporate elites began the process of purging YouTube of all "wrong-think" dissenting voices, an action that a few insightful people, and only a few, could see coming from a mile away.  It got under way with this official YouTube blog post, which the New York Times and the Washington Post knew about well before targeted independent YouTube "creators" had any inkling that they were about to get shafted. That blog post starts out with this text—  Over the past few years, we’ve been investing in the policies, resources and products needed to live up to our responsibility and protect the YouTube community from harmful content. This work has focused on four pillars: removing violative content, raising up authoritative content, reducing the spread of borderline content and rewarding trusted creators. Thanks to these investments, videos that violate our policies are removed faster than ever and users are seeing less borderline content and harmful misinformation. As we do this, we’re partnering closely with lawmakers and civil society around the globe to limit the spread of violent extremist content online.  Why does the YouTube community require protection ... from itself? If you follow that "authoritative content" link (read it properly as "authoritarian content") you get another YouTube document with the Orwellian title Building a better news experience on YouTube, together. Together? Not so much. The YouTube purge began late last week when one Carlos Maza, an especially "woke"  and gay representative of globalist corporate elite interests began a public campaign on Twitter to get conservative comedian Steven Crowder banned from YouTube. Carlos Maza works for Vox, which along with The Verge, is owned by Vox Media. In turn, Vox Media's biggest investor by far is NBC-Universal ($200 million), which in turn owns NBC, MSNBC, and so many other things that it would make your head spin were I to list them all.   Well, we are talking about globalist corporate elites here, right?  Maza asserts without argument and apparently any self-awareness whatsoever that "gatekeeping" is one of the most important things journalist do. Got it? Maza states that a primary function of media is to control what narratives you can hear and suppress those you are not supposed to hear. Crowder was responding to that scary assertion among other things.

Journalist and Educator Among Those Caught Up in YouTube’s Attempt to Purge Online Hate Speech — Free speech advocates who warned of the predictable consequences of allowing powerful tech companies to police online discourse seized on YouTube’s attempt Wednesday to purge hate speech from their video platform after creators performing public service journalism and education were swept up in the effort. Wednesday’s purge came after days of sustained criticism over YouTube’s handling of bigoted content produced by fringe alt-right commentator Steven Crowder that targeted Vox media personality Carlos Maza. After nearly a week of online outrage, YouTube demonetized Crowder’s channel and then launched a site-wide cleanup of what the company defined as hate speech and targeted harassment.  But the purge also caught journalists and historians up in its wake as the tech giant’s heavy-handed response to Crowder’s harassment didn’t allow for context in most of the content.  The most prominent of those voices swept up in the purge thus far is Ford Fischer, a video journalist who reports on extremism in U.S. politics on his YouTube page, News2Share.  Fischer’s page was demonetized Wednesday at 1:25 PM for promoting “harmful or hateful content,” though what that content was is unclear, he told Common Dreams.  “Their explanation was extremely vague and offered no specifics,” said Fischer. “I haven’t heard from them since then.”Youtube removed two videos six minutes prior to the demonetization move, said Fischer. One of the pair featured a Holocaust denier being yelled at by protesters on either side of a protest at AIPAC. Fischer believes it was removed “because one person in it was a Holocaust denier” with no consideration of context. “What Youtube pretends not to understand is the difference between content that shows a Holocaust denier and content that denies the Holocaust,” said Fischer.

'This Stuff Freaks Me Out': Rep. Rashida Tlaib Raises Alarm Over Use of Facial Recognition as Groups Demand Federal Moratorium - Before detailing her specific concerns about facial recognition technology during a House Oversight Committee hearing on the subject Tuesday, Rep. Rashida Tlaib expressed a sentiment broadly shared by privacy advocates and the general public."This stuff freaks me out," said Tlaib, a Democrat from Michigan. "I'm a little freaked out by facial recognition."Tlaib's remarks came during the Oversight Committee's second hearing this year on facial recognition technology as lawmakers grapple with how the software should be regulated—or if it should be used at all."You should be freaked out too," Tlaib tweeted. "The inaccuracy and threat to our privacy is real. The second Oversight hearing on facial recognition technology reveals just how bad this is for all of us."As Common Dreams has reported in April, law enforcement agencies are increasingly using facial recognition technology at border crossings and major airports throughout the United States, raising serious concerns among civil liberties groups.In a letter to the House Oversight Committee ahead of Tuesday's hearing, a coalition of over 60 groups led by the ACLU called for a "federal moratorium on face recognition for law enforcement and immigration enforcement purposes.""Face recognition gives government agencies the unprecedented power to track who we are, where we go, and who we know," the letter reads. "This capability threatens to create a world where people are watched and identified as they attend a protest, congregate outside a place of worship, visit a medical provider, or simply go about their daily lives."Concerns over the threat facial recognition poses to privacy rights were echoed by lawmakers during Tuesday's hearing. "In the Fourth Amendment, our Founding Fathers endowed with us 'the right of people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects against unreasonable searches and seizures,'" Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) said before questioning officials from the TSA and FBI over the use of facial recognition technology at airports, protests, and elsewhere.

 Chinese Dating Apps Targeting Americans Expose 42.5 Million Records -- On May 25th, security researcher Jeremiah Fowler discovered an unsecured Elastic database associated with an entity in China had exposed 42.5 million records of mostly American dating app users.  Fowler noticed an I.P. address, located on a U.S. server with many of the users based in North America. He examined the sever even closer and found Chinese text inside the database that read: 模型更新完成事件已触发,同步用户到 (Google Translate: The model update completion event has been triggered, syncing to the user.)  "The strange thing about this discovery was that there were multiple dating applications all storing data inside this database," Fowler wrote in a blog post on Security Discovery. "Upon further investigation, I was able to identify dating apps available online with the same names as those in the database."  He said, "that despite all of them using the same database, they claim to be developed by separate companies or individuals that do not seem to match up with each other. The Whois registration for one of the sites uses what appears to be a fake address and phone number. Several of the other sites are registered private and the only way to contact them is through the app (once it is installed on your device)."  Fowler was able to find users' real identity in a matter of minutes: "The dating applications logged and stored the user's I.P. address, age, location, and user names," he wrote. "Like most people, your online persona or user name is usually well crafted over time and serves as a unique cyber fingerprint." In an email to CyberScoop, Fowler said a sampling of 10,000 users revealed that 8,063 were Americans, 356 were from the U.K., 219 from Canada and 151 from Australia.  Approximately 42.5 million records were exposed, Fowler said. He wasn't sure who controls the database nor its exact location. But the site's Whois domain registration was located on a subway line in Lanzhou, China.

Senators urge brighter Fed spotlight on Deutsche Bank AML practices — Democratic senators want the Federal Reserve to investigate Deutsche Bank’s anti-money-laundering compliance following allegations that the bank suppressed suspicious activity reports on businesses tied to President Trump and senior adviser Jared Kushner. The lawmakers — led by Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., and Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio — sent a letter seeking details on whether Fed staff have looked further into the allegations, what are the results so far of such an investigation and whether anyone from the administration has contacted the Fed about Deutsche Bank, among other questions. “We urge you to undertake a thorough evaluation of the Bank’s compliance with Bank Secrecy Act and anti-money-laundering regulations with respect to the Trump and Kushner-related activities identified by Deutsche Bank compliance staff as suspicious,” the senators said in a letter Thursday to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John C. Williams. The Democrats’ call for further investigation comes as Deutsche Bank has consistently come under scrutiny for its financial ties to President Trump’s businesses. Bloomberg News The New York Times reported last month that senior officials in Deutsche Bank’s wealth management division quashed the SARs, which had been prepared by compliance staff and related to transactions involving the Kushner Cos., the Trump Foundation and other entities. Kushner is President Trump’s son-in-law and a top adviser at the White House. After that report, Brown and Van Hollen sent a similar letter to Deutsche Bank seeking answers. The letter was also signed by five other Democratic Senate Banking Committee members: Jack Reed of Rhode Island, Robert Menendez of New Jersey, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Catherine Cortez Masto of New Mexico and Tina Smith of Minnesota. The Democrats’ call for further investigation comes as Deutsche Bank has consistently come under scrutiny for its financial ties to President Trump’s businesses.

Mnuchin’s Dangerous Plan to Deregulate Wall Street Is Captured in this Chart - Pam Martens - U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin (a/k/a the former foreclosure king) has been attempting to dismantle regulatory restraints on Wall Street’s worst instincts since he took office. Making Mnuchin even more dangerous is the fact that, under statute, he simultaneously sits as head of the Financial Stability Oversight Council (F-SOC) even as he appears to be attempting to undermine financial stability in the U.S.One of Mnuchin’s most alarming actions on behalf of F-SOC came last October 17 when the Council announced that it was removing the designation of Prudential Financial as a SIFI – a Systemically Important Financial Institution that required enhanced supervision and prudential standards. Mnuchin stated at the time: “The Council’s decision today follows extensive engagement with the company and a detailed analysis showing that there is not a significant risk that the company could pose a threat to financial stability.”The chart above shows what happened to Prudential from the date of Mnuchin’s statement to the end of 2018. Its stock started sinking like a rock in a pattern that was so close to the trading pattern of Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank that they could have been clones of one another. What does Prudential have in common with those three banks? Like them, it’s a major derivatives counterparty and on the hook for billions of dollars if derivatives blow up Wall Street again as they did in 2008.Jeremy Kress, an Assistant Professor of business law at the University of Michigan Ross School of Business and a former attorney in the Banking Regulation & Policy Group of the Federal Reserve, had warned against taking this action in March of 2018.Writing for the American Banker, Kress explained that while other SIFIs that had been removed from the list (AIG, GE Capital and Met Life) had taken steps to shrink their systemic footprint, Prudential had actually grown larger and more systemic. Kress wrote: “…Prudential has grown by more than $100 billion since its designation. Meanwhile, Prudential’s interconnectedness with other financial companies has increased: Its notional derivatives exposures and repurchase agreements have each swelled by more than 30% since its designation. In sum, Prudential’s financial data certainly do not suggest that it has become less systemically important…”

Transition from Libor to new benchmark should begin now: Fed’s Quarles — Federal Reserve Vice Chairman for Supervision Randal Quarles said the time may be now for financial institutions to move on from using the the London interbank offered rate. Quarles in a speech Monday urged the private sector to transition to a new benchmark known as the secured overnight financing rate immediately, or abandon Libor altogether. Although Libor will not be phased out until at least 2021, regulators have already begun preparing for the switch to the new SOFR benchmark. “Beginning that transition now would be consistent with prudent risk management and the duty that you owe to your shareholders and clients,” Quarles said at an event hosted by New York University and the Alternative Reference Rates Committee, a private-sector group formed by the Fed to ensure a smooth transition. “There is, however, also another and easier path, which is simply to stop using Libor.” Quarles’ comments come as regulators have begun to move away from Libor, which has been plagued by scandal in recent years. The United Kingdom's Financial Conduct Authority will likely stop publishing Libor beyond 2021. The Fed official advised financial institutions to take the warnings about Libor’s instability seriously. “At this moment, many seem to take comfort in continuing to use LIBOR — it is familiar, and it remains liquid,” Quarles said. “But history may not view that decision kindly; after LIBOR stops, it may be fairly difficult to explain to those who may ask exactly why it made sense to continue using a rate that you had been clearly informed had such significant risks attached to it.” The Fed has already included detailed questions about plans banks are making for the transition in their supervisory discussions with large firms, Quarles said. He said that the Fed expects banks supervised by the central bank to show an appropriate level of preparedness, which “must increase as the end of 2021 grows closer.”

Fed official hits back at criticism of central bank’s payments role -- A Federal Reserve official helping lead the central bank's faster payments initiative is rejecting criticism of the Fed's potential development of a real-time payments system. Esther George, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, defended the Fed system's record as a provider of payment services in an interview with American Banker, saying the central bank's participation in the market has benefited the public. The Fed's role has come under the microscope with indications the central bank may develop its own real-time payments solution rather than just encourage market innovation. Critics say the Fed should step aside to let the private sector lead the way, with some even questioning the record of the Fed's existing automated clearinghouse service. "The argument about the Fed somehow hampering the effectiveness of that payment system — I think it's not well founded," said Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Esther George. George, who chairs the Federal Reserve’s Financial Services Policy Committee and served as executive sponsor of the Fed’s payments improvement project, explicitly rejected the argument that the agency’s ACH service distorts the market. “To the argument about the Fed somehow hampering the effectiveness of that payment system, I think it's not well-founded,” George said. As the Federal Reserve Board nears the completion of years long study of its potential future role in the faster-payments marketplace, George said part of the investigation is how a Fed system may work in relation to the private sector. “On the whole, consumers pay less today by virtue of the competition that comes from having the Fed as a provider in [ACH]," she said, adding, "The evidence ... would tell a different story" than some of the criticism. "That's why, even as we look at the potential for a role in real-time payments, we have to reassess — again in today's environment — will that be appropriate going forward or is this something the private sector can adequately handle?” George said.

Regulators are open to banks serving hemp businesses: Fed's Bowman — Bank regulators will try to clarify rules allowing banks to provide services to industrial hemp businesses after the crop was legalized in the farm bill last year, Federal Reserve Board Gov. Michelle Bowman told Congress this week. Bowman was pressed on the issue by Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., at a hearing to confirm her for a full 14-year term on the Fed board. “We would not discourage banks form banking these types of customers,” Bowman said. “We’ll try and clarify that. Hemp is not an illegal crop.” Bowman’s comments come as banks are hesitant to service industrial hemp businesses just as they have shied away from serving marijuana businesses. But even though pot is still considered a banned drug, hemp — a material used in industrial goods that contains less than 0.3% of the psychoactive compound found in marijuana — was removed from the federal list of banned substances. Bowman was confirmed in November to fill an unexpired term on the Fed board that ends in 2020. She is awaiting Senate approval for a full term. Tester said banks in Montana currently won’t service hemp businesses because they are concerned about regulatory ramifications. “The 2018 farm bill decriminalized hemp and took it from the controlled substances list,” Tester said at the Senate Banking Committee hearing Wednesday. “It is now as legal as soybeans or wheat to be able to grow. … When the Montana bankers were in a month and a half ago, they said that they couldn’t bank them because the regulators told them they couldn’t bank them.” Bowman said that the Fed is not discouraging banks from serving hemp businesses, but Tester pushed her to be proactive in clarifying that banks can services those businesses without repercussions. He noted the pressure farmers are already under as a result of international trade tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. “

 Democrats Want The Post Office To Handle All Your Banking Needs - Imagine a bank with all the bureaucracy of the United States Post Office AND all the financial savviness of the U.S. government. If you like that idea, you’ll just love Democrats proposal to bank at your local post office.  Socialist lawmakers including U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders and U.S. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez want Americans to be able to visit their local post office for their banking needs, according to a report by Fox News. Oh, the future looks so bright for this country, huh? Sanders, an independent from Vermont, and Ocasio-Cortez, a New York Democrat (both tyrannical socialists), see “postal banking” as a potential solution for the estimated 32.6 million U.S. households that are “unbanked” or “underbanked,” meaning they don’t have a checking or savings account and often turn to services like check cashing or payday loans that can harm them financially in the long term. But most of the “underbanked” have chosen to do so and won’t use the Post Office for banking even if leftists insisted. The reasons most people choose not to use a bank would not be fixed by the Post Office, but amplified.  The Post Office is hardly in a position to become a bank because they lose so much money. The only reason it even exists is that it’s a government agency.  No business could operate like the Post Office and remain afloat.

May 2019: Unofficial Problem Bank list unchanged at 73 Institutions --Note: Surferdude808 compiles an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.  Here is the unofficial problem bank list for May 2019. Here are the monthly changes and a few comments from surferdude808: Update on the Unofficial Problem Bank List for May 2019. It was very quiet during the month as there were no changes to the list this month. At the end of May, the Unofficial Problem Bank stood at 73 institutions with assets of $52.1 billion, down from 92 intuitions but up in assets of $18.0 billion from a year ago. However, two interesting events occurred during the month related to the list. First, on May 29th, the FDIC released industry results for the first quarter of 2019. Within that release, the FDIC said the Official Problem Bank List held 59 institutions with assets of $46.7 billion. Second, the Enloe State Bank, Cooper, Texas ($36.7 million) failed on Friday, May 31st. This is the first failure since January 2018, stretch of 15 months. Notable about this failure is that the Enloe State Bank, founded in June 1928 and supervised by the FDIC, is that it does not appear that FDIC issued a formal safety & soundness enforcement action to address Enloe’s weaknesses.

CFPB delays compliance date for key part of payday lending rule - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau issued a final rule late Thursday to delay the compliance date for mandatory underwriting provisions of the 2017 payday lending rule. The move, which was expected, delays the compliance date for those provisions by 15 months, until Nov. 19, 2020. In February, CFPB Director Kathy Kraninger proposed rescinding the strict underwriting requirements initially finalized under her predecessor, Richard Cordray, in 2017. That was necessary before separately delaying the compliance date, which was the agency's move this week. Some suggest the latest delay is part of the CFPB’s strategy to bolster its legal position if it is sued by consumer advocates for violating the Administrative Procedure Act, which prohibits agencies from issuing rules that are “arbitrary, capricious, and unsupported by substantial evidence.” The agency is in the unusual position of trying to reverse its own rule and must provide evidence its initial regulation was flawed. “They know they are going to be sued by consumer advocates and state attorneys general, so they think this is the best way procedurally to effectuate their role so that it will withstand a judicial attack,” said Alan Kaplinsky, a partner at Ballard Spahr. This delay gives the CFPB more time to finalize its repeal of the mandatory underwriting provisions for small-dollar loans. Under the initial proposal, the plan would have required lenders to assess the borrower's ability to repay before extending a short-term loan, as well as limited the number of payday loans. Lenders have long objected, saying the ability-to-repay provisions threatened their business model. Though the CFPB has proposed rescinding those underwriting requirements, the agency is leaving intact a second component of the 2017 final rule that sought to limit how often a lender could attempt to debit payments from a borrower’s bank account. The payment provisions had originally been slated to go into effect Aug. 19. But a federal judge in March effectively halted the compliance date while the rule is debated in court. Many payday lenders ultimately expect that the final rule that goes into effect will be far narrower than what was originally finalized under Cordray. “When the dust settles — putting aside what might happen in court — I think their hope and expectation is that the only thing that goes in effect is the payment provision and there won’t be any underwriting requirements,” Kaplinsky said. The bureau also said it is making “certain corrections to address several clerical and non-substantive errors” that it has identified in the 2017 payday rule.

How Payday Lenders Spent $1 Million at a Trump Resort — and Cashed In -- In mid-March, the payday lending industry held its annual convention at the Trump National Doral hotel outside Miami. Payday lenders offer loans on the order of a few hundred dollars, typically to low-income borrowers, who have to pay them back in a matter of weeks. The industry has long been reviled by critics for charging stratospheric interest rates — typically 400% on an annual basis — that leave customers trapped in cycles of debt. The industry had felt under siege during the Obama administration, as the federal government moved to clamp down. A government study found that a majority of payday loans are made to people who pay more in interest and fees than they initially borrow. Google and Facebook refuse to take the industry’s ads.On the edge of the Doral’s grounds, as the payday convention began, a group of ministers held a protest “pray-in,” denouncing the lenders for having a “feast” while their borrowers “suffer and starve.”But inside the hotel, in a wood-paneled bar under golden chandeliers, the mood was celebratory. Payday lenders, many dressed in golf shirts and khakis, enjoyed an open bar and mingled over bites of steak and coconut shrimp.They had plenty to be elated about. A month earlier, Kathleen Kraninger, who had just finished her second month as director of the federal Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, had delivered what the lenders consider an epochal victory: Kraninger announced a proposal to gut a crucial rule that had been passed under her Obama-era predecessor. Payday lenders viewed that rule as a potential death sentence for many in their industry. It would require payday lenders and others to make sure borrowers could afford to pay back their loans while also covering basic living expenses. Banks and mortgage lenders view such a step as a basic prerequisite. But the notion struck terror in the payday lenders. Their business model relies on customers — 12 million Americans take out payday loans every year, according to Pew Charitable Trusts — getting stuck in a long-term cycle of debt, experts say. A CFPB study found that three out of four payday loans go to borrowers who take out 10 or more loans a year. Now, the industry was taking credit for the CFPB’s retreat.  This year was the second in a row that the CFSA held its convention at the Doral. In the eight years before 2018 (the extent for which records could be found), the organization never held an event at a Trump property.

CFPB fines Freedom Mortgage $1.75M for HMDA violations - Dozens of loan officers at Freedom Mortgage intentionally submitted inaccurate borrower information that overstated the number of white applicants over a four-year period, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau alleged in a consent order. The CFPB said Wednesday that the Mount Laurel, N.J., mortgage lender had agreed to pay a $1.75 million fine to settle allegations that it violated the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act. The CFPB found that, when mortgage applicants called Freedom to apply for a home loan but did not provide their race or ethnicity, more than 80 different loan officers in seven different call centers selected “non-Hispanic white.” “Certain loan officers were told by managers or other loan officers that, when applicants did not provide their race or ethnicity, they should select non-Hispanic white (regardless of whether that was accurate),” the CFPB said in the 22-page consent order. “This practice of selecting non-Hispanic white when a customer did not provide race and ethnicity over the phone was not limited to a specific location, loan officer, or time period.” The CFPB also found that in 300 instances, Freedom loan officers misreported an applicant as “non-Hispanic white” even when the applicant did provide different race or ethnicity information.. By choosing “non-Hispanic white” as a default when applicants did not provide race and ethnicity information, as the CFPB alleged, Freedom potentially undercut its own fair-lending performance by reporting fewer loans to minority borrowers and more to white borrowers. The CFPB found that about 30% of potential borrowers did not identify their race or ethnicity, based on a review of audio recordings of applications taken by phone from 2014 to mid-2017. In addition, the CFPB found flaws in how Freedom's electronic system recorded information for Department of Veterans Affairs loans. The system would not allow VA loan applicants' marital status to be saved and would remove a co-applicant’s income if the potential borrower’s gender was not provided.

Duo on House banking panel say GSE reform should top agenda — A Republican and a Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee both made the case for legislative housing finance reform on Tuesday. Enacting GSE reform faces a whole host of obstacles, not the least of which is a divided Congress, and the administration has signaled its desire to shake up Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. But Rep. Lacy Clay, D-Mo., the chairman of the housing subcommittee, and Rep. Sean Duffy, R-Wis., the ranking member, agreed that congressional action was a priority. Duffy even expressed optimism that Congress could act in the current legislation session. “I think housing finance reform is important, and I think we might have a shot at doing that,” said Duffy, speaking with Clay on a panel at an event hosted by the Department of Housing and Urban Development and the National Association of Home Builders. “The status quo I think gave us the ’08 crisis, and there hasn’t been significant changes.” Clay was more cautious, emphasizing that while the desire for reform is present, the political will is “not quite there yet.” Yet he added that if the committee could connect GSE reform to broader economic concerns, the odds of bipartisan movement behind a housing finance bill could go up. “We know the residual effects of putting a family into a home and how that creates jobs, so we have to make the common sense case for that to our colleagues and to this administration,” Clay said. Their discussion came just two months after Mark Calabria was sworn in as director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, where he has already promised to move toward ending the conservatorships of Fannie and Freddie, with or without Congress. “I will be taking administrative action where I can,” Calabria said, speaking Monday at the same event. “And I will be consulting with Congress, the administration and other regulators wherever necessary.” Duffy said administrative action by the FHFA could ultimately spur Congress to act. “I would just say that I love Mark Calabria," Duffy said, "but if the Congress doesn’t act, Mark Calabria is going to start doing things as well, which might galvanize industries that have not been inclined in the past to say, ‘Well, maybe we should do this through the Congress.' " Duffy suggested that the mortgage market would be better off if Congress were to lead the way on reform instead of the Trump administration. “I think the industry likes when they have enough say in the process, and with us they’d have more say,” he said.

Can Fannie, Freddie be overhauled without Congress? — The Trump administration has said more than once that it welcomes legislative reform to fundamentally restructure Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. But the Federal Housing Finance Agency has also made clear that it stands willing to do the heavy lifting itself. That begs an obvious question: Would administrative reform of the government-sponsored enterprises be decisive, or would policymakers merely be settling for a backup plan to make up for Congress’ inability to act? A new report by analyst Karen Shaw Petrou and her firm, Federal Financial Analytics, suggests the FHFA's actions may be sufficient to reform the GSEs. Their analysis warns those skeptical about FHFA Director Mark Calabria’s apparent willingness and authority to overhaul the system not to underestimate the range of options at his disposal. But an FHFA-led reform effort could be messy, the report concedes. Calabria lays out "hard-headed options to concluding the GSE conservatorships,” the report says. “Only two goals appear inviolable: the 30-year [fixed-rate mortgage] stays and as much taxpayer risk as possible goes away. As we map out different paths to these goals under current law — and there are several thoroughly plausible ones — we foresee significantly different ranges of market winners and losers.” Here are some key takeaways from their analysis: Calabria has been clear that he wants to end the conservatorships of Fannie and Freddie. He said last month that his goal is for the mortgage giants to begin the process of exiting federal control and building private capital in 2020, which could include the early stages of a public offering. The FHFA director has long been a proponent of privatizing the two firms, which could mean they compete with other market participants on a more level playing field. “There's been a lot of people thinking that if Congress doesn't act, then this comfortable status quo continues in perpetuity, and that's a mistake,” Petrou said in an interview. “That's our key takeaway.” Acknowledging the limits of the FHFA authority, Calabria has said he plans on urging Congress to provide the FHFA with the power to grant more charters, which would fulfill his goal of achieving more competition in the mortgage market. But Petrou’s analysis indicates that the FHFA’s power under the 2008 Housing And Economic Recovery Act is quite broad. “The FHFA in consultation with Treasury has tremendous flexibility under current law to recraft the entire U.S. mortgage single and multi-family housing finance system,” she said. “They can do what they want, and how they do it is going to redefine franchise value across the entire mortgage finance sector.”

FHFA's Calabria urges reg relief for homebuilders — Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Mark Calabria blamed "burdensome" homebuilding regulations at the local level for helping to drive up housing costs nationwide. In a speech Monday, Calabria detailed how rising home prices are made worse by the lack of housing supply. He attributed the growing problem to government mandates, zoning restrictions, environmental regulations and building codes. Calabria called the dearth of home construction a “national problem with local roots.” "One of the biggest factors driving prices up and dragging supply down is the accumulation of burdensome government mandates and fees, zoning and land-use restrictions, environmental regulations, building codes, and permitting requirements," he said at an event hosted by the Department of Housing and Urban Development and the National Association of Homebuilders. Calabria added that "the most burdensome regulations come from local governments." "Typically, it is the wealthiest communities that hike up the regulatory costs of homebuilding the highest," he said. He suggested that the Trump administration's deregulatory agenda should provide relief to homebuilders next. “We have seen the power of deregulation at the national level the past two years in everything from energy to health care to infrastructure,” he said. But he also said he planned to address the issue during his five-year tenure as the regulator of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. He suggested — as he previously has in both speeches and interviews — that he would ultimately like Congress to empower FHFA to issue charters to additional mortgage finance participants “so more players can enter the industry and compete with one another.” “There is already evidence that this kind of reform would succeed if enacted,” Calabria said. “Today’s reemergent private mortgage insurance industry shows a strong appetite and capacity for private capital to bear mortgage credit risk.” Calabria also emphasized that he would like to create a level playing field that would subject all mortgage market players to the same rules. “Fannie and Freddie should be successful because they have the best management, the best execution, the best business practices — not because they have rules and regulations stacked in their favor,” he said.

 Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for March: Record Low National Delinquency Rate - Black Knight released their Mortgage Monitor report for April today. According to Black Knight, 3.47% of mortgages were delinquent in April, down from 3.67% in April 2018. Black Knight also reported that 0.50% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 0.61% a year ago.  This gives a total of 3.97% delinquent or in foreclosure. Press Release: Black Knight Reports Home Price Growth Continues to Slow, Falling Below 25-Year Average for First Time Since 2012; Affordability at Strongest Point in More Than a Year  This month, leveraging its McDash loan-level mortgage performance data in combination with the Black Knight Home Price Index (HPI), the company revisited the home price and affordability landscape. As Black Knight’s Data & Analytics Division President Ben Graboske explained, home prices continued their trend of deceleration in March, but lower interest rates over the past three months have brought affordability to its best point in more than a year. “In what is usually the calendar-year high point for home price gains, month-over-month appreciation in March 2019 was just 1%, down from 1.25% at the same time last year,” said Graboske. “Likewise, the annual rate of appreciation has now slipped to 3.8%, the first time annual home price growth has fallen below its 25-year average of 3.9% since 2012. That makes 13 consecutive months of home price deceleration. As we’ve been reporting, home prices began to decelerate in February 2018 as rising interest rates started putting pressure on affordability. The situation intensified in the last half of the year as 30-year fixed rates peaked near 5% in November, bringing affordability levels close to their long-term averages. Of course, rates have since declined, and are now hovering close to 4%. However, they didn’t fall below 4.25% until the last week of March, meaning we likely won’t see the impact – if any – on home prices until May or June housing numbers. Here is a graph from the Mortgage Monitor that shows the National delinquency rate over time. From Black Knight:

• After seeing delinquencies decline by less than 6% over the first three months of 2019 – the lowest seasonal improvement to start any year on record – April made up for lost ground
• April marked a record-low for the national delinquency rate
• The national delinquency rate declined by 5% in April alone, bringing the aggregate 2019 YTD improvement to -10.6%

The second graph shows the one month change in house prices as calculated by Black Knight, and the year-over-year change:   There is much more in the mortgage monitor.

As mortgage rates plunge, millions more homeowners can benefit from refinancing -- Mortgage rates are falling unexpectedly and sharply, and that means millions more homeowners can now benefit from refinancing their loans. The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed has fallen from a recent high of 4.23% on May 21 to 3.94% now, according to Mortgage News Daily. Fear over the ongoing trade war with China, and now potentially Mexico, has investors rushing to the relative safety of the bond market, pushing yields lower. Mortgage rates loosely follow the yield of the 10-year Treasury. There are now about 5.9 million borrowers who could see their rates drop by at least 75 basis points by refinancing their mortgages. That is an increase of 2 million in just the past month, according to Black Knight, a mortgage software and analytics company. That is the largest population of eligible candidates in nearly three years and represents an aggregate of $1.6 billion in potential monthly savings. Per borrower, the savings is about $271 per month. If the rate were to drop just another quarter point, close to 7 million borrowers could benefit from a refinance, with a collective savings of just over $1.8 billion. Falling rates are also benefiting buyers, especially as home prices are now cooling. Home prices in March were up 3.8% annually, the first time growth has fallen below its 25-year average of 3.9% since 2012, according to Black Knight. Affordability is now the best it’s been in more than a year, with the monthly payment on the average-priced house down 6% in the past six months (that’s with a 20% down payment). “When we factor income into the equation, we see that it takes 22% of the median income to purchase the average-priced home. That’s the lowest payment-to-income ratio in more than a year as well, and far below the long-term average of 25.1%,” wrote Ben Graboske, president of Black Knight’s data and analytics division.

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey --From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 1.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 31, 2019. This week’s results included an adjustment for the Memorial Day holiday.... The Refinance Index increased 6 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 14 percent compared with the previous week and was 0.5 percent higher than the same week one year ago....“Mortgage rates dropped to their lowest level since the first week of 2018, driven by increasing concerns regarding the ongoing trade tensions with China and Mexico,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Some borrowers, particularly those with larger loans, jumped on the opportunity to refinance, bringing the index and average refinance loan size to their highest levels since early April. Additionally, refinances for FHA and VA loans jumped by 11 percent.” Added Fratantoni, “Coming out of the Memorial Day holiday, and likely impacted by the financial market volatility caused by the trade tensions, purchase application volume declined for the week. Potential homebuyers may be more cautious given the heightened economic uncertainty.”

 CoreLogic: House Prices up 3.6% Year-over-year in April - Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for April. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for March. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).  From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Reports April Home Prices Increased by 3.6% Year Over Year CoreLogic® ... today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for April 2019, which shows home prices rose both year over year and month over month. Home prices increased nationally by 3.6% from April 2018. On a month-over-month basis, prices increased by 1% in April 2019. (March 2019 data was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results each month.) Looking ahead, after several months of moderation in early 2019, the CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates home prices will begin to pick up and increase by 4.7% from April 2019 to April 2020. On a month-over-month basis, home prices are expected to decrease by 0.3% from April 2019 to May 2019. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices calculated using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state. “The pickup in sales between March and April, has helped to counter the recent slowing in annual home-price growth,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. “Mortgage rates are 0.6 percentage points below what they were one year ago and incomes are up, which has improved affordability for buyers. However, price growth has remained the highest for lower-priced homes, constraining housing choices for first-time buyers.”

Construction Spending Mostly Unchanged in April - From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending was mostly unchanged in April: Construction spending during April 2019 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,298.5 billion, nearly the same as the revised March estimate of $1,299.2 billion. The April figure is 1.2 percent below the April 2018 estimate of $1,314.7 billion.  Private spending decreased and public spending increased: Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $954.0 billion, 1.7 percent below the revised March estimate of $970.4 billion. ... In April, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $344.6 billion, 4.8 percent above the revised March estimate of $328.7 billion. This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.Private residential spending had been increasing - but turned down in the 2nd half of 2018 - and is now 26% below the bubble peak.Non-residential spending is 10% above the previous peak in January 2008 (nominal dollars).Public construction spending is 6% above the previous peak in March 2009, and 32% above the austerity low in February 2014.  The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending.On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is down 11%. Non-residential spending is up slightly year-over-year. Public spending is up 15% year-over-year. This was below consensus expectations, however spending for February and March  were revised up (mostly public spending).

Update: Framing Lumber Prices Down Almost 50% Year-over-year - Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices.   Lumber prices declined from the record highs in early 2018, and are now down almost 50% year-over-year. This graph shows two measures of lumber prices: 1) Framing Lumber from Random Lengths through May 31, 2019 (via NAHB), and 2) CME framing futures.  Right now Random Lengths prices are down 44% from a year ago, and CME futures are  down 49% year-over-year.  There is a seasonal pattern for lumber prices, and usually prices will increase in the Spring, and peak around May, and then bottom around October or November - although there is quite a bit of seasonal variability. The trade war is a factor with reports that lumber exports to China have declined by 40% since last September.

Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased in Q1 -- The Federal Reserve released the Q1 2019 Flow of Funds report today: Flow of Funds.  According to the Fed, household net worth increased in Q1 2019 to $108.6 trillion, from $104.0 trillion in Q4 2018.  The Fed estimated that the value of household real estate increased to $26.1 trillion in Q1. The value of household real estate is now above the bubble peak in early 2006 - but not adjusted for inflation, and this also includes new construction.  The first graph shows Households and Nonprofit net worth as a percent of GDP.  Household net worth, as a percent of GDP, is higher than the peak in 2006 (housing bubble), and above the stock bubble peak. This includes real estate and financial assets (stocks, bonds, pension reserves, deposits, etc) net of liabilities (mostly mortgages). Note that this does NOT include public debt obligations.  This graph shows homeowner percent equity since 1952.  Household percent equity (as measured by the Fed) collapsed when house prices fell sharply in 2007 and 2008. In Q1 2019, household percent equity (of household real estate) was at 60.4% - up from Q4, and the highest since 2002. This was because of an increase in house prices in Q1 (the Fed uses CoreLogic). Note: about 30.3% of owner occupied households had no mortgage debt as of April 2010. So the approximately 50+ million households with mortgages have far less than 60.4% equity - and about 2 million homeowners still have negative equity.  The third graph shows household real estate assets and mortgage debt as a percent of GDP. Mortgage debt increased by $25 billion in Q1.  Mortgage debt has declined by $0.34 trillion from the peak, and, as a percent of GDP is at 49.2%, down from a peak of 73.5% of GDP during the housing bubble. The value of real estate, as a percent of GDP, increased slightly in Q1, and is above the average of the last 30 years (excluding bubble).  However, mortgage debt as a percent of GDP, continues to decline.

Mortgage Equity Withdrawal Negative in Q1 - The following data is calculated from the Fed's Flow of Funds data (released last week) and the BEA supplement data on single family structure investment. This is an aggregate number, and is a combination of homeowners extracting equity - hence the name "MEW" - and normal principal payments and debt cancellation (modifications, short sales, and foreclosures). For Q1 2019, the Net Equity Extraction was a negative $28 billion, or a -0.7% of Disposable Personal Income (DPI) .This graph shows the net equity extraction, or mortgage equity withdrawal (MEW), results, using the Flow of Funds (and BEA data) compared to the Kennedy-Greenspan method.  Note: This data is impacted by debt cancellation and foreclosures, but much less than a few years ago. MEW has been positive for 10 of the last 12 quarters. With a slower rate of debt cancellation, MEW will likely be mostly positive going forward - but nothing like during the housing bubble. The Fed's Flow of Funds report showed that the amount of mortgage debt outstanding increased by $25 billion in Q1. The Flow of Funds report also showed that Mortgage debt has declined by $0.34 trillion since the peak.

The average millennial has a net worth of $8,000. That’s far less than previous generations. Millennials are doing far worse financially than generations before them, with student loans, rising rents and higher health-care costs pushing the average net worth below $8,000, a new study shows.The net worth of Americans aged 18 to 35 has dropped 34 percent since 1996, according to research released Thursday by Deloitte, the accounting and professional services giant. This demographic is paying more for education and such basics as food and transportation while incomes have largely flatlined. “The vast majority of consumers are under tremendous financial pressure,” said Kasey M. Lobaugh, Deloitte’s chief retail innovation officer and lead author of the study. “That is particularly true for low-income Americans and millennials." The growing gap between the nation’s wealthiest residents and everybody else, he said, is affecting the way consumers spend.Education expenses have climbed 65 percent in the past decade. Food costs have jumped 26 percent, health care is up 21 percent, housing jumped 16 percent and transportation rose 11 percent. And there are now expenses that most consumers didn’t have to account for 20 years ago, including smartphones and data plans.Today’s 20- and 30-somethings spend about 17 percent of their incomes on education, health care and rent, compared with 12 percent a decade ago, the study found. Discretionary spending, which includes dining out, alcohol and furniture, has remained largely flat, at about 11 percent of total income. “Only 20 percent of consumers were meaningfully better off in 2017 than they were in 2007, with precious little income left to spend on discretionary retail,” the study found. The findings, researchers say, “debunk many conventional wisdoms about the new-age consumer.” Millennials, they contend, are putting off home-buying and marriage not because they want to but because rising costs are making it difficult for them to afford down payments and weddings.

Consumer Credit Jumps The Most Since November As Credit Card Debt Soars -  One month after an unexpectedly poor March consumer credit print, when just $10.3 billion (since revised to $11 billion) in revolving and non-revolving debt was created to fund another month of US purchases on credit, moments ago the Fed reported that in April, things went back to normal, as total consumer credit jumped by $17.5 billion, more than the $13 billion expected and the most since November's $21.7 billion... ... thanks to a surge in credit card debt as the latest revolving credit print was a whopping $7 billion injection, up from a draw of $2 billion in March, and not only more than all the credit card debt issued in the first three months of the year but the highest since last November. Meanwhile, as credit card debt soared, nonrevolving credit - auto and student loans - posted a surprisingly soft print, with only $10.5 billion in new debt created. This was $2.5 billion below last month's print, and the lowest since June 2018. And while April's sharp rebound in credit card use may ease concerns about the financial stability and propensity of the US consumer to spend, one place where there were no surprises, was in the total amount of student and auto loans: here as expected, both numbers hit fresh all time highs with a record $1.6 trillion in student loans outstanding, a whopping increase of $30 billion in the quarter, while auto debt also hit a new all time high of $1.16 trillion, an increase of $8.3 billion in the quarter.

FedEx will no longer provide express shipping for Amazon in the US - FedEx will no longer provide express delivery for Amazon packages in the U.S., as the e-commerce giant continues to expand its own in-house delivery network. FedEx announced on Friday that it decided not to renew its express U.S. shipping contract with Amazon. The company said in a statement that it was a “strategic decision” and that the change won’t affect other existing contracts with Amazon, including international shipping. Amazon’s contract with FedEx Express only affects air services, which means FedEx will continue to serve as a carrier and last-mile delivery partner. FedEx added that Amazon was not a huge customer, only accounting for roughly 1.3% of its total revenue in 2018. FedEx stock dropped less than 1% on the news, while Amazon stock did not budge. Amazon’s representative said in an email statement, “We respect FedEx’s decision and thank them for their role serving Amazon customers over the years.” The change comes at a time when Amazon is aggressively investing in its own in-house network of shipping and delivery services. It recently launched a new program called Delivery Service Partners, which lets entrepreneurs run their own local delivery truck business with Prime logos. The company has also been buying up cargo planes and trucks, while creating new services that streamline its truck deliveries. In its 2018 annual financial filing, Amazon listed “transportation and logistics services” among its group of competitors for the first time.

Trade Deficit Decreased to $50.8 Billion in April - From the Department of Commerce reported:  The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $50.8 billion in April, down $1.1 billion from $51.9 billion in March, revised. April exports were $206.8 billion, $4.6 billion less than March exports. April imports were $257.6 billion, $5.7 billion less than March imports.  Exports and imports decreased in April.  Exports are 25% above the pre-recession peak and down 1% compared to April 2018; imports are 11% above the pre-recession peak, and up slightly compared to April 2018. In general, trade had been picking up, although both imports and exports have weakened recently.  The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.  Oil imports averaged $57.16 per barrel in April, up from $53.10 in March, and up from $54.50 in April 2018.  The trade deficit with China decreased to $26.9 billion in April, from $27.8 billion in April 2018.

March Trade Deficit at $50.79B, Below Forecast - The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, also known as the FT-900, is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992. The monthly reports include revisions that go back several months. This report details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services.The U.S. monthly international trade deficit increased in March 2019 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit increased from $49.3 billion in February (revised) to $50.0 billion in March, as imports increased more than exports. The previously published February deficit was $49.4 billion. The goods deficit increased $0.5 billion in March to $72.4 billion. The services surplus decreased $0.2 billion in March to $22.4 billion.Here is an excerpt from the latest report:The U.S. monthly international trade deficit decreased in April 2019 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit decreased from $51.9 billion in March (revised) to $50.8 billion in April, as imports decreased more than exports. The previously published March deficit was $50.0 billion. The goods deficit decreased $1.0 billion in April to $71.7 billion. The services surplus increased $0.1 billion in April to $20.9 billion. Current Release Today's headline number of -50.79B was below the Investing.com forecast of -50.70B.

U.S. trade deficit dips 2.1% in April, but it’s not really good news: Exports and imports both fall and gap with China grows - The nation’s trade deficit fell 2.1% in April, but in a sign of weakness, both exports and imports declined and the gap with China grew.The U.S. trade deficit slipped to $50.8 billion from a revised $51.9 billion in March, the government said Thursday. Economists polled by MarketWatch had forecast a $50.4 billion gap.The grounding of Boeing’s BA, +0.54%  737 MAX curbed aircraft shipments while a slower global economy and ongoing trade tensions dented other major U.S. exports. And imports declined in part because Americans aren’t spending as much as they were a year earlier.  Exports slipped 2.2% to $206.8 billion. The U.S. shipped fewer commercial aircraft, petroleum-based products, autos and parts and pharmaceutical drugs. Boeing is still struggling to resolve issues with its 737 MAX that led to two fatal crashes. Imports also dropped 2.2% — to $257.6 billion from $263.3 billion. The U.S. imported fewer chemicals, semiconductors, cellphones, autos and parts.  The trade deficit in goods with China rose 30% to an unadjusted $26.9 billion, though it’s still on track to be lower in 2019 than it was in 2018.The flow of goods between the two countries have been disrupted off and on since last summer because of a drawn-out dispute over trade rules and the resulting tariffs. The disruption is only going to get worse after both countries announced new tariffs.The gap in goods with Mexico, meanwhile, fell an unadjusted 14% to $8.2 billion, but it’s running above year-ago levels. The president has threatened to apply tariffs to all Mexican goods by next week unless the country stems the flow of central American immigrants to the U.S.The U.S. trade gap in goods last year was the highest ever and it’s on track to set another record in 2019. A smaller trade deficit in the first quarter gave a nice boost to gross domestic product, making the economy look better than it actually performed. GDP is unlikely to get a similarly big boost in the second quarter.More broadly, a slower global economy has cast a shadow over the U.S. Exports have stagnated over the past year, an especially painful turn for large American manufacturers. The ongoing trade fights haven’t helped. “Half of the export drop reflected civilian aircraft, as Boeing is struggling with the 737 MAX issues,”

US Exports To China Plunge Near 9 Year Low As US Trade Deficit Shrinks -- The US trade deficit shrank very modestly in April (up from a revised -$51.9bn to -$50.8bn), practically in line with expectations. Under the hood, exports of goods and services decreased $4.6 billion, or 2.2 percent, in April to $206.8 billion. Exports of goods decreased $4.4 billion. Exports of services decreased $0.2 billion. The decrease in exports of goods mostly reflected decreases in capital goods ($2.7 billion), in automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($0.8 billion), and in consumer goods ($0.6 billion).  The decrease in exports of services mostly reflected  decreases in travel (for all purposes including education) ($0.1 billion) and in maintenance and repair services ($0.1 billion). Imports of goods and services decreased $5.7 billion, or 2.2 percent, in April to $257.6 billion.  Imports of goods decreased $5.4 billion.  Imports  of services decreased $0.3 billion. The decrease in imports of goods mostly reflected decreases in capital goods ($1.7 billion), in consumer goods ($1.1 billion), in automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($1.0 billion), in other goods ($0.8 billion), and in industrial supplies and materials ($0.6 billion).  The decrease in imports of services mostly reflected a decrease in transport ($0.3 billion). Disappointingly for Trump, the deficit with China increased in April.

BEA: May Vehicles Sales increase to 17.3 Million SAAR -- The BEA released their estimate of May vehicle sales this morning. The BEA estimated sales of 17.31 million SAAR in May 2019 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), up 5.9% from the April sales rate, and up slightly from May 2018.  Sales in 2019 are averaging 16.8 million (average of seasonally adjusted rate), down 1.9% compared to the same period in 2018. This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and an estimate for May (red).   This was below the consensus forecast for April.  A small decline in sales to date this year isn't a concern - I think sales will move mostly sideways at near record levels.
This means the economic boost from increasing auto sales is over (from the bottom in 2009, auto sales boosted growth every year through 2016).
The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.
Note: dashed line is current estimated sales rate of 17.31 million SAAR.

"The Auto Cycle Has Peaked": Bank Of America Says Industry Now Faces Supply & Demand Mismatch - It was only days ago that we noted JD Power's pessimistic look at bloated inventory and stuffed channels in the automotive industry. Now, a new Bank of America note echoes the magnitude of the problem. "The peak in auto sales is clear," the bank concludes. The note points out that inventory for light trucks and SUVs is climbing to "uncomfortably high levels" which are indicative of even more softening in automotive sales at a time when producers have been too optimistic about demand. Recall, JD Power had stated, days ago: Inventory is starting to become a serious issue across all U.S. automakers. On average, new vehicles sold in May spent 74 days on dealer lots, the highest level for the month of May since 2009 when the industry was plagued with the looming effect of the Great Recession. 29% of vehicles sold so far in May have sat on lots for 90 days or longer, up from about 25% last year.  While Bank of America attributes much of the downturn in the manufacturing sector to the ongoing trade war, it singles out the automotive industry as a specific area for concern. Calling the problem a "classic story of demand/supply mismatch", the bank points out that producers continue to ramp up output at a time when demand has softened. It’s easy to see in the two following charts – one showing auto sales topping out and the other showing output and production not falling. The note shows that total auto sales have appeared to peak....while at the same time output remains high... Additionally, the note provides a glimpse at skyrocketing light truck inventory and poor consumer confidence data when asked about whether or not it was a good time to purchase vehicles.

EV Sales Are Set To Soar 540% -- The United States’ electric vehicle market is amped up and surging ahead full throttle. While EVs have truly revolutionized the global automotive sector since their inception about a decade and a half ago, for all their pomp and verve, EV sales currently make up just a tiny fraction of total car sales in the country. However, this is set to change—and quite dramatically, too.IHS Markit, a London-based global information purveyor, recently releasedpredictions for the U.S. EV market that sounds like sweet music to EV buffs—but is equally alarming for pistonheads.According to the firm, the U.S. market for fully electric vehicle sales is expected to balloon from just 200,000 units in 2018 to 1.28 million units in 2026, representing an impressive 540 percent growth or 30.4 percent CAGR. Fully EV vehicles, aka battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), account for about two-thirds of global EV sales with plug-in hybrid-electric vehicles making up the rest.Much of that growth is expected to come at the expense of the ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) market — the firm says fully electric v  ehicle sales will account for 7.6 percent of all new vehicle sales seven years from now compared to just 1.16 percent last year.

US Factory Orders Slowest Growth Since Trump Elected - Following its surprising bounce in factory orders in March, April was expected to see contraction (echoing the collapse in PMIs) and it did (dropping 0.8% MoM) and durable goods orders tumbling 2.1% MoM in their final April print. Factory Orders were revised lower for March (from +1.9% to +1.3%) which prompted April's 0.8% decline to look slightly better than the expected 1.0% decline. Ex-Transports, factory orders rose just 0.3% MoM in April and new orders ex-defense for April fall 0.9% after rising 0.5% in March. However, away from the noise and oscillation of the monthly data, year-over-year, US Factory Orders grew at just 1.0% - the slowest rate of growth since Trump was elected. And judging by PMIs, this is about to get a lot worse.

Heavy Duty Truck Orders Collapse To Worst Numbers Since July 2016, Down 70% In May - A bloated backlog of Class 8 orders as a result of a euphoric mid-2018 continues to weigh on heavy duty truck orders in 2019.Preliminary North America Class 8 net order data from ACT Research shows that the industry booked just 10,800 units in May, down 27% sequentially, but also lower by an astonishing 70% year-over-year. YTD orders are down 64% compared to the first five months of 2018. This chart shows the stunning difference between 2018 orders (black bars) and 2019 orders (red bars).  Class 8 trucks, which are made by Daimler (Freightliner, Western Star), Paccar (Peterbuilt, Kenworth), Navistar International, and Volvo Group (Mack Trucks, Volvo Trucks), are one of the more common heavy trucks on the road, used for transport, logistics and occasionally (some dump trucks) for industrial purposes. Typical 18 wheelers on the road are generally all Class 8 vehicles, and traditionally are seen as an accurate coincident indicator of trade and logistics trends in the economy. In addition, a follow up note from JP Morgan noted that Class 5-7 (medium duty) net new orders were down 21% YoY and down 19% sequentially. For May, net orders were 19,300 units, down 21% YoY and down 19% MoM. Despite these trends, JP Morgan still expects 2019 production of ~278,000 units (up 2% YoY).

ISM Manufacturing index Decreased to 52.1 in May - The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in May. The PMI was at 52.1% in May, down from 52.8% in April. The employment index was at 53.7%, up from 52.4% last month, and the new orders index was at 52.7%, up from 51.7%.  From the Institute for Supply Management: May 2019 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®: “The May PMI® registered 52.1 percent, a decrease of 0.7 percentage point from the April reading of 52.8 percent. The New Orders Index registered 52.7 percent, an increase of 1 percentage point from the April reading of 51.7 percent. The Production Index registered 51.3 percent, a 1-percentage point decrease compared to the April reading of 52.3 percent. The Employment Index registered 53.7 percent, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the April reading of 52.4 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 52 percent, a 2.6-percentage point decrease from the April reading of 54.6 percent. The Inventories Index registered 50.9 percent, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the April reading of 52.9 percent. The Prices Index registered 53.2 percent, a 3.2-percentage point increase from the April reading of 50 percent. Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.  This was below expectations of 52.9%, and suggests manufacturing expanded at a slower pace in May than in April.

May Markit Manufacturing Lowest Since 2009 - The May US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 50.5, down 2.1 from the 52.6 final April figure. This is its lowest figure since September 2009. Markit's Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction. Here is an excerpt from Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit in their latest press release:"May saw US manufacturers endure the toughest month in nearly ten years, with the headline PMI down to its lowest since the height of the global financial crisis. New orders are falling at a rate not seen since 2009, causing increasing numbers of firms to cut production and employment. At current levels, the survey is consistent with the official measure of manufacturing output falling at an increased rate in the second quarter, meaning production is set to act as a further drag on GDP, with factory payroll numbers likewise in decline. " [Press Release] Here is a snapshot of the series since mid-2012. Here is an overlay with the equivalent PMI survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management..

 US Manufacturing 'Hope' Crashes To Record Low -- Following the US Services sector's collapse (and Canada and China's plunge), US Manufacturing's soft survey data tumbled in May. The headline PMI fell to its lowest level since September 2009 as output growth eased (with output expectations crashing to the joint-lowest since records began) and new orders fell for the first time since August 2009. The ISM Manufacturing print also disappointed at 52.1 (53.0 exp), the weakest since Oct 2016 (despite a rise in new export orders and employment) Three of five ISM components declined, including production, inventories and supplier deliveries,and stagflation looms as prices paid rose. ISM's production gauge dropped to 51.3 in May, the lowest level since August 2016, even as the gauge of backlogs declined to a two-year low. As Bloomberg notes, the ISM index's lowest reading of Trump's presidency -- down from a 14-year high in August -- follows a slew of other economic data that suggest the sector was on shakier ground even before the latest escalation of tariffs between the U.S. and China began to pinch margins. Respondents are unanimous in their tariff tantrums... “Ongoing tariffs [issue is] impacting costs and influencing supplier realignment on country of origin. Border issue is causing delays in imports from Mexico.” (Computer & Electronic Products) “The threat of additional tariffs has forced a change in our supply chain strategy; we are shifting business from China to Mexico, which will not increase the number of U.S. jobs.” (Chemical Products)   As Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, noted: "May saw US manufacturers endure the toughest month in nearly ten years, with the headline PMI down to its lowest since the height of the global financial crisis. New orders are falling at a rate not seen since 2009, causing increasing numbers of firms to cut production and employment. At current levels, the survey is consistent with the official measure of manufacturing output falling at an increased rate in the second quarter, meaning production is set to act as a further drag on GDP, with factory payroll numbers likewise in decline.

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 56.9% in May -- The May ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 56.9%, up from 55.5% in April. The employment index increased to 58.1%, from 53.7%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction.From the Institute for Supply Management: May 2019 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®: The NMI® registered 56.9 percent, which is 1.4 percentage points higher than the April reading of 55.5 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector, at a slightly faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 61.2 percent, 1.7 percentage points higher than the April reading of 59.5 percent, reflecting growth for the 118th consecutive month, at a faster rate in May. The New Orders Index registered 58.6 percent; 0.5 percentage point higher than the reading of 58.1 percent in April. The Employment Index increased 4.4 percentage points in May to 58.1 percent from the April reading of 53.7 percent. The Prices Index decreased 0.3 percentage point from the April reading of 55.7 percent to 55.4 percent, indicating that prices increased in May for the 24th consecutive month. According to the NMI®, 16 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. The non-manufacturing sector continues to experience a slight uptick in business activity, but it is still leveling off overall. Respondents are mostly optimistic about overall business conditions, but concerns remain about tariffs and employment resources.” This graph shows the ISM non-manufacturing index (started in January 2008) and the ISM non-manufacturing employment diffusion index. This suggests faster expansion in May than in April.

Markit Services PMI: "New business expansion eases to slowest since March 2016" - The May US Services Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 50.9 percent, down 2.1 from the final April estimate of 53.0. The Investing.com consensus was for 50.9 percent. Markit's Services PMI is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates contraction. Here is the opening from the latest press release:Commenting on the PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:"The final PMI data for May add to worrying signs about the health of the US economy. With the exception of February 2016, business reported the weakest expansion for five and a half years as a tradeled slowdown continued to widen from manufacturing to services.""As with manufacturing, the biggest change in recent months has been a sharp deterioration in growth of orders and output at larger companies, linked in part to worsening export trends, trade war worries and rising geopolitical uncertainty." [Press Release] Here is a snapshot of the series since mid-2012.  Here is an overlay with the equivalent PMI survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management, which they refer to as "Non-Manufacturing" (see our full article on this series here). Over the past year, the ISM metric has been significantly the more volatile of the two.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 218,000 - The DOL reported:  In the week ending June 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 218,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 3,000 from 215,000 to 218,000. The 4-week moving average was 215,000, a decrease of 2,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 750 from 216,750 to 217,500.  The previous week was revised up. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

 Job growth screeches to a near halt in May, with private payrolls up just 27,000 -- Job creation skidded to a near-halt in May in another sign that the U.S. economic momentum is slowing. Companies added just 27,000 new positions during the month, according to a report Wednesday from payroll processing firm ADP and Moody’s Analytics that was well below Dow Jones estimates of 173,000. The reading was the worst since around the time the economic expansion began and the jobs market bottomed in March 2010 with a loss of 113,000. Since then, the private payrolls count has increased by 21.3 million. “Job growth is moderating,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said in a statement. “Labor shortages are impeding job growth, particularly at small companies, and layoffs at brick-and-mortar retailers are hurting.” Indeed, the most damage came at companies with fewer than 50 employees, which reported a loss of 52,000 jobs, and in the goods-producing sector, which saw a decline of 43,000. Almost all of the small business loss (50,000) came at firms with fewer than 20 employees, while the big loser in the goods sector was construction, where 36,000 positions were lost. Large companies withstood the slowdown, adding 68,000 jobs, while those with 50 to 499 employees contributed 11,000. The anemic May growth comes after a powerful surge in April of 271,000, the highest since July though revised down 4,000 from the initial reading. Private job creation in the ADP/Moody’s count has averaged 188,000 a month in 2019.

ADP: Private Employment increased 27,000 in May -- From ADP:Private sector employment increased by 27,000 jobs from April to May according to the May ADP National Employment Report®. ... The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis....“Following an overly strong April, May marked the smallest gain since the expansion began,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “Large companies continue to remain strong as they are better equipped to compete for labor in a tight labor market.”Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Job growth is moderating. Labor shortages are impeding job growth, particularly at small companies, and layoffs at brick-and-mortar retailers are hurting.” This was well below the consensus forecast for 175,000 private sector jobs added in the ADP report.

First Look at May: ADP Says 27K New Nonfarm Private Jobs --Today we have the ADP May estimate of 27K new nonfarm private employment jobs, a decrease over the ADP revised April figure of 271K.   The 27K estimate came in below the Investing.com consensus of 180K for the ADP number. The Investing.com forecast for the forthcoming BLS report is for 175K new nonfarm private jobs and the unemployment rate to remain at 3.6%. Their forecast for the May full nonfarm new jobs is (the PAYEMS number) 185K.Here is an excerpt from today's ADP report press release: “Following an overly strong April, May marked the smallest gain since the expansion began,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “Large companies continue to remain strong as they are better equipped to compete for labor in a tight labor market.” Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Job growth is moderating. Labor shortages are impeding job growth, particularly at small companies, and layoffs at brick-and-mortar retailers are hurting.” Here is a visualization of the two series over the previous twelve months.

 A Closer Look at Today's ADP Employment Report -  In this morning's ADP employment report we got the May estimate of 27K new nonfarm private employment jobs from ADP, a decrease over April's revised 271K. The popular spin on this indicator is as a preview to the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But the ADP report includes a wealth of information that's worth exploring in more detail. Here is a snapshot of the monthly change in the ADP headline number since the company's earliest published data in April 2002. This is quite a volatile series, so we've plotted the monthly data points as dots along with a six-month moving average, which gives us a clearer sense of the trend. As we see in the chart above, the trend peaked 20 months before the last recession and went negative around the time that the NBER subsequently declared as the recession start. At present, the six-month moving average has been hovering in a relatively narrow range around 200K new jobs since around the middle of 2011. ADP also gives us a breakdown of Total Nonfarm Private Employment into two categories: Goods Producing and Services. Here is the same chart style illustrating the two. The US is predominantly a services economy, so it comes as no surprise that Services employment has shown stronger jobs growth. The trend in Goods Producing jobs went negative over a year before the last recession. Interestingly, the Goods Producing jobs saw an uptick in late 2016 that has continued.  For a sense of the relative size of Services over Goods Producing employment, the next chart shows the percentage of Services Jobs across the entire series. The latest data point is below the record high.  There are a number of factors behind this trend. In addition to our increasing dependence of Services, Goods Production employment continues to be impacted by automation and offshoring.  For a better sense of the components of the two Goods Producing and Service Providing cohorts, here is a snapshot of the five select industries tracked by ADP. The two things to note here are the relative sizes of the industries and the relative trends. Note that Construction and Manufacturing are Production industries whereas the other three are Service Providing.  Another view of the relative trends of the five select industries is an overlay of the year-over-year comparison.For a longer-term perspective on the Goods Producing and Service Providing employment, see our monthly analysis, Secular Trends in Employment: Goods Producing Versus Services Providing, which is based on data from the Department of Labor's monthly jobs report reaching back to 1939.

May Employment Report: 75,000 Jobs Added, 3.6% Unemployment Rate ---From the BLS:Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up in May (+75,000), and the unemployment rate remained at 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in professional and business services and in health care. ..The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for March was revised down from +189,000 to +153,000, and the change for April was revised down from +263,000 to +224,000. With these revisions, employment gains in March and April combined were 75,000 less than previously reported... In May, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 6 cents to $27.83. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.1 percent. The first graph shows the monthly change in payroll jobs, ex-Census (meaning the impact of the decennial Census temporary hires and layoffs is removed - mostly in 2010 - to show the underlying payroll changes). Total payrolls increased by 75 thousand in May (private payrolls increased 90 thousand). Payrolls for March and April were revised down 75 thousand combined. Year-over-year change employmentThis graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968. In May, the year-over-year change was 2.350 million jobs. The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate. The Labor Force Participation Rate was unchanged in May at 62.8%. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. A large portion of the recent decline in the participation rate is due to demographics and long term trends. The Employment-Population ratio was unchanged at 60.6% (black line). unemployment rateThe fourth graph shows the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate was unchanged in May at 3.6%. This was well below the consensus expectations of 180,000 jobs added, and March and April were revised down by 75,000 combined. A weak report.

 May jobs report: wage growth and job growth disappoints - Employers added a scant 75,000 new jobs to the US economy in May — far below last year’s monthly average of 223,000 positions, according to the latest jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The sudden drop from April, when the economy added 224,000 (revised down from the initial 263,000 jobs reported), plus slower overall job growth so far in 2019, suggests that the pool of available workers is draining and the US economy is reaching full employment. The super-low unemployment rate, for example, didn’t budge in May from 3.6 percent. That’s still the lowest rate of unemployed Americans recorded since December 1969. Yet the small pool of available workers still hasn’t translated to much higher pay: Workers only got an average hourly pay raise of 6 cents in May, the same increase they got a month earlier. The new jobs report shows that the US economy is continuing to expand, but without middle- and working-class families seeing much of the benefit. Job security is the one advantage employees can count on these days. Low unemployment and high job creation means that nearly every American who wants to work and is able to has snagged a job by now. And those who lose their jobs, or decide to leave, probably won’t have a hard time finding another position. Yet millions of Americans are working part-time jobs when they would rather get full-time gigs, or at least work more hours. The number of people in that group has been mostly shrinking but still added up to 4.4 million workers in May. Most of the new job hiring last month was for positions in business services and health care. While all the new hiring is good, the numbers are not as great as last year. The average monthly job growth so far in 2019 is about 155,000 (revised down from 164,000), a big drop from the 223,000 positions created monthly last year. The drop isn’t huge; it just suggests that the current labor shortage is making it hard for employers to fill all the open positions. But with such a tight labor market and rising productivity, workers should expect much bigger pay raises than they’re getting. May was another month with disappointing wage growth. Private sector workers (excluding farmworkers) got an average 6-cent hourly raise, adding up to an average hourly pay of $27.83. In the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have only increased by 3.1 percent, and that doesn’t even take inflation into account. That’s even slower wage growth than usual. The latest pay data suggests that workers and labor unions will continue to strike to force businesses to boost wages.

U.S. Payrolls, Wages Cool as Trade War Weighs on Economy - U.S. employers added the fewest workers in three months and wage gains cooled, suggesting broader economic weakness and boosting expectations for a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut as President Donald Trump’s trade policies weigh on growth.Nonfarm payrolls rose 75,000 in May after a downwardly revised 224,000 advance the prior month, according to a Labor Department report Friday. The increase missed all estimates in Bloomberg’s survey calling for 175,000. The jobless rate held at a 49-year low of 3.6% while average hourly earnings climbed 3.1% from a year earlier, less than projected. The dollar and Treasury yields fell as the data signaled the labor market -- a pillar of strength for an economy headed for a record expansion -- was facing new pressures even before Trump threatened tariffs on Mexican goods in addition to proposed higher levies on Chinese imports. Retail sales, factory output and home purchases have shown the economy struggling this quarter after better-than-expected growth in the first three months of the year. Fed policy makers have described the economy as solid, though recent remarks from Chairman Jerome Powell signaled openness to lower rates if needed. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who votes on policy this year, this week became the first official to indicate likely support for a rate cut; others suggested they’re waiting for more data.As the world’s largest economy nears its longest-ever expansion in July, the employment report may amplify rhetoric that Fed rate cuts are needed to support growth.Revisions subtracted 75,000 jobs from the prior two months, bringing the three-month average to 151,000. Payroll changes by industry showed broad weakness. Manufacturing growth slowed to 3,000 jobs, as forecast, while construction employment expanded by 4,000, down from the prior month. Professional and business services added 33,000, about half the prior month’s number.Retail jobs fell by 7,600 for a fourth-straight drop while transportation and warehousing and nondurable goods also slipped. Government payrolls contracted by 15,000, highlighted by drops in state and local education. Kevin Hassett, the departing chairman of Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers, said on CNBC that the report was disappointing but wage gains mean the economic outlook is still solid. Flooding in the central U.S. may have reduced the May payroll number by 40,000 jobs, Hassett said on Bloomberg Television.

May jobs report: this is the kind of report you see at negative inflection points -- HEADLINES:

• +75,000 jobs added
• U3 unemployment rate unchanged at 3.6%
• U6 underemployment rate declined -0.2% from 7.3% to 7.1% (new expansion low)

Leading employment indicators of a slowdown or recession. I am highlighting these because many leading indicators overall strongly suggest that an employment slowdown is coming. The following more leading numbers in the report tell us about where the economy is likely to be a few months from now. These were mixed m/m, but several are now sending significant negative signals.

• the average manufacturing workweek declined -0.1 from 40.7 hours to 40.6 hours. This is one of the 10 components of the LEI. It is down -0.7 hours from its peak during this expansion. This has now crossed the threshold to being consistent with an oncoming recession.
• Manufacturing jobs rose by 3,000. YoY manufacturing is up 184,000, a big deceleration from last summer’s pace.
• construction jobs rose by 4,000. YoY construction jobs are up 215,000, also a deceleration from last summer. Residential construction jobs, which are even more leading, fell by -100, the second monthly decline in a row, a signal that the housing slowdown from last year has finally bled through into jobs.
• temporary jobs rose by 5100, but April was revised down by about 4500. YoY these are up +44,000.
• the number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or less rose by 243,000 from 1,904,000 to 2,147,000. The post-recession low was last month.

Here are the headlines on wages and the broader measures of underemployment:

• Not in Labor Force, but Want a Job Now: declined by -76,000 from 5.121 million to 5.045 million
• Part time for economic reasons: declined by -299,000 from 4.654 million to 4.355 million
• Employment/population ratio ages 25-54: unchanged at 79.7% (down -0.2 from its peak in January and February).
• Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel: rose $.07 from  $23.31 to $23.38, up +3.2% YoY.  (Note: you may be reading different information about wages elsewhere. They are citing average wages for all private workers. I use wages for nonsupervisory personnel, to come closer to the situation for ordinary workers.) 
• Overtime was unchanged at 3.4 hours.
• Professional and business employment (generally higher-paying jobs) rose by 33,000 and  is up +498,000 YoY. This has also decelerated from last year’s pace.
• the index of aggregate hours worked for non-managerial workers fell by -0.3%
• the index of aggregate payrolls for non-managerial workers rose by 0.1% 

Headwinds in the job market? Payroll gains slow and wages fail to accelerate - Payrolls were up 75,000 last month, less than half of what was expected, though the unemployment rate held steady at its 50-year low of 3.6 percent. Despite the low jobless rate, wage growth failed to accelerate, and has been stuck around 3 percent for a few months now. Downward revision shaved 75,000 jobs off of payrolls over the previous two months and our smoother, below, shows a mild deceleration in the pace job gains.All told, it’s a weaker jobs report than we’ve become used to seeing, but what is it telling us? Is it a warning signal of weakening demand or is it more that the job market is closing in on full capacity? This sounds like a technical distinction–are the constraints on the demand or supply side?–but it’s a critical one. If we’re hitting supply constraints then the threat to the economy is overheating. Conversely, if we’re seeing the first hints of weakening demand, then the threat is a forthcoming slowdown. Note that the implications to the central bank are the opposite in these two scenarios.  It is clearly too soon to tell, and the labor market, and thus the American consumer, remain in very good shape. There is no near-term recessionary scenario in these data. In fact, the under-employment rate–U6–hit a cyclical low last month of 7.1 percent. But headwinds have accelerated and the possibility of weakening demand is real and, to my thinking, poses a greater risk than overheating. Obviously, the trade war and its potential escalation–opening the Mexican front in the war–are in the mix, as is the related weakness of U.S. business investment numbers.  Turning to the guts of today’s report, and given the low signal/noise ratio in these monthly data, our smoother averages job gains over 3, 6, and 12 month periods. It shows a mild deceleration to 151,000 over the past three months. While that’s significantly below the near 200,000 average over the past 12 months, it’s still a strong enough number to hold down the jobless rate. In fact, we expect this number to drop as we close in on full employment.The wage story is especially germane right now, especially given my long-held view that it takes persistent, high-pressure labor markets like this one to provide workers with the bargaining clout they otherwise lack. This improvement should show up in real wage gains, and, as I’ll show, that has clearly been the case. But while we might expect nominal wage growth to accelerate with unemployment at a 50-year low, the two figures below–hourly wage growth for all private sector workers and for middle-wage workers–show, at the end of each series, what could turn out to be a flattening in the pace of wage growth. Note the solid line–a 6-month moving average–which is either flattening or falling slightly.

Comments on May Employment Report – McBride - The headline jobs number at 75 thousand for May was well below consensus expectations of 180 thousand, and the previous two months were revised down 75 thousand, combined. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.6%. Overall this was a weak report.  In May, the year-over-year employment change was 2.350 million jobs. That is decent year-over-year growth. Wage growth was below expectations. From the BLS: "In May, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 6 cents to $27.83. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.1 percent."  This graph is based on “Average Hourly Earnings” from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) (aka "Establishment") monthly employment report. Note: There are also two quarterly sources for earnings data: 1) “Hourly Compensation,” from the BLS’s Productivity and Costs; and 2) the Employment Cost Index which includes wage/salary and benefit compensation. The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees.  Nominal wage growth was at 3.1% YoY in May. Wage growth has generally been trending up, but has weakened recently. Since the overall participation rate has declined due to cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old. In the earlier period the participation rate for this group was trending up as women joined the labor force. Since the early '90s, the participation rate moved more sideways, with a downward drift starting around '00 - and with ups and downs related to the business cycle. The 25 to 54 participation rate was declined in May to 82.1% from 82.2% in April, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio was unchanged at 79.7%. The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in May to 4.654 million from 4.499 million in April. The number of persons working part time for economic reason has been generally trending down. These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that declined to 7.1% in May. This is the lowest level for U-6 since the year 2000. Unemployed Over 26 WeeksThis graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. According to the BLS, there are 1.230 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job. This was down from 1.305 million in March. Summary: The headline jobs number was well below expectations, and the previous two months were revised down. The headline unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.6%, although U-6 declined to the lowest level since the year 2000. Wage growth was also a little disappointing. Overall this was a weak jobs report. The economy added 820 thousand jobs through May 2019, down from 1,149 thousand jobs during the same period in 2018. So job growth has slowed.

St. Louis Fed Study Shows Rising Level of Financial Desperation Among the Poor, Hidden by Aggregates -  Yves Smith - Reader UserFriendly highlighted an important St. Louis Fed study, The Unequal Recovery: Measuring Financial Distress by ZIP Code by Ryan Mather and Juan M. Sánchez. It sheds light on a topic that that readers regularly debate: why are there so many signs of distress in a supposedly robust economy? Some of the disconnect is due to rentier choke points, like rising housing costs, particularly in big cities, leading to more and more “affordable” housing being converted by gentrification or other means into upscale abodes, and ever-escalating medical costs, which creates medical bankruptcies, worry about seeking care, and too many people not getting treatments early. Another factor is misleading headline unemployment reports. Even though the press regularly brays about the strength of the job market, the high level of involuntary unemployment belies that.The St. Louis Fed teases out another way in which rosy aggregate data masks shaky foundations. Since 2015, the lowest income households have become more vulnerable to shocks, taking on more debt as wealth (to the extent they have it) is even more concentrated in housing. The level of distress in lower-income households has also increase, defying the official story of increasing prosperity. The authors drill into ZIP-code level data to show that even adjacent ZIPs have shown striking divergences in wealth accumulation (or its erosion) in the last few years. You can quibble with their methods (there isn’t good data on wealth) but if anything, they are almost certain to have understated how well the well off are doing, particularly given Gabriel Zucman’s findings on the extent of hidden wealth globally (6% to 8% of total wealth). And their measures of distress seems reasonable, for instance, using 80% or more of credit card limits.

Nearly 25% Of Americans Are Using Debt To Pay For Necessities Like Food - Even though we are told the economy is doing great, all the evidence shows that main street Americans are struggling more and more every day. A recent report claimed that the costs of goods have risen to the point that 25% must use debt to pay for necessities, such as food. According to a new Experian report that came out last week, Americans have an average of $6,506 in credit card debt. But some expenses are weighing much more heavily on the credit cards of the average American… Necessities, like food and rent, are being put on credit cards. A full 23% of Americans say that paying for basic necessities such as rent, utilities, and food contributes the most to their credit card debt, according to a new survey of approximately 2,200 U.S. adults that CNBC Make It performed in conjunction with Morning Consult. Another 12% say medical bills are the biggest portion of their debt.  Medical bills additionally likely contribute to the purchases of food on a credit card.This news isn’t shocking unless you believe the mainstream media’s glorification of the false “recovery” we’ve experienced since the Great Recession of a decade ago. American households have taken on historic levels of debt, which will crush them in the next economic downturn. Everyday expenses continue to rise, and as the shadow inflation increases, it also threatens to wipe out the middle class – what’s left of it anyway. In fact, middle-class life is now 30% more expensive than it was 20 years ago, according to a separate report by CNBC. The cost of things such as college, housing, and child care has risen precipitously: Tuition at public universities doubled between 1996 and 2016 and housing prices in popular cities have quadrupled, Alissa Quart, author and executive director of the Economic Hardship Reporting Project, tells CNBC Make It.

Baltimore City Cryptocurrency Ransomware Attack Will Cost At Least $18 Million - Baltimore has been struggling with an aggressive cyber-attack over the last five weeks, previously profiled here, it has now been revealed the attack will cost the city $18.2 million, reported WBAL-TV 11.The cost estimates were disclosed at a recent City Council budget hearing: city officials have already paid $4.6 million for recovery efforts since the ransomware was discovered May 7 and could spend an additional $5.4 million in 2H19. The remaining $8.2 million is from the loss or delayed revenue and loss of interest and penalty income. As of Tuesday, 35% of city employees had their email accounts restored, with the possibility of a full system restore by the end of the week.  Some city operations have been shut down for the last month. Public works officials said no residents have received water bills because of the cyber attack. Three weeks ago, we reported all essential systems required for transacting real estate deals in the city went offline becuase of the hack.

Police To Use TSA-Style Scanners To Spy On People In Public Places - If you thought the NYPD's Z-Backscatter vans and police mini-Z's were intrusive, you have not seen anything yet.Soon, nowhere will be safe from Big Brother's prying eyes, as police prepare to use HEXWAVE to spy on people in public spaces.Last week the Salt Lake Tribune revealed that the Utah Attorney General and law enforcement are partnering with Liberty Defense, a 3D image scanning company that makes its money from scanning the public in real-time. (3D means capturing rich information (size, shape, depth) about the detection space. It can detect any material that has a physical form.) Let's start with their name — calling yourself Liberty Defense is an affront to liberty-minded Americans who do not want to be secretly spied on by Big Brother. Their tag line "Protecting Communities And Preserving Peace of Mind" is the exact opposite of what this device does. Any device that is used to spy on the public is just that: a surveillance device. It is not a Defense of our Liberty.

 Teacher Gives Boy With Autism ‘Most Annoying Male’ Award - — A special education teacher in Indiana is in hot water after giving an 11-year-old student with autism a trophy for “most annoying male.”  Speaking to the Times of Northwest Indiana, the boy’s father, Rick Castejon, said he was “blindsided” when his nonverbal son was given the award last month during an end-of-the-year awards ceremony at Bailly Preparatory Academy. “We just weren’t expecting it,” Castejon said. The award was presented in front of the boy’s classmates, parents, teachers and principal during the ceremony at the Merrillville Golden Corral. The room reportedly fell silent after the award, which read “Bailly Preparatory Academy 2018-2019 Most Annoying Male,” was presented.   Peter Morikis, Gary Community School Corporation’s Emergency Manager, confirmed the incident in a statement. The statement read:  “The Gary Community School Corporation does not condone this type of behavior and will continue to put the safety and well-being of our students first. We extend our deepest apologies to the impacted student, the family and anyone else who take offense to this unfortunate occurrence.” Gary Community School Corporation said in a statement, “an apology was extended on behalf of the district to the family and disciplinary action was taken against personnel involved,” but not before the teacher spoke with Castejon, acting as if the matter was simply a joke and reminded the family not to forget to take their award home. School officials have discussed putting the teacher on a two-week suspension, or possibly firing her.

 Orwellian Future Is Here- Facial Recognition & Mass Surveillance Coming To US Schools -  Beginning in New York, facial recognition is coming to schools in the United States and it’ll be switched on for testing next week.   According to an article by Engadget, the Lockport City School District in New York will start testing a facial and object recognitionsystem called “Aegis” on June 3rd. According to BuzzFeed News, that will make it the first in the U.S. to pilot a facial recognition mass surveillance system on its students and faculty.  The district installed cameras and the software suite back in September, using $1.4 million of the $4.2 million funding it received through the New York Smart Schools Bond Act. Funding provided through the Bond Act is supposed to go towards instructional tech devices, such as iPads and laptops, but the district clearly had other plans. –Engadget   BuzzFeed News got its hands on a copy of a letter distributed to the students’ parents, and it describes Aegis as “an early warning system” that can notify officials of threats.  But that’s the propagandized version of what the system is in reality: it’s a mass surveillance tool being sold to the public as “safety” as with any human rights infringement. The system, created by Canadian company SN Technologies, can apparently keep track of certain individuals in school grounds.  Schools have long been indoctrination centers and it doesn’t look like that trend will be reversed anytime soon, in fact, it’s being amplified. The system can identify students and staff who’ve been suspended, but it’s unclear if Lockport will use it to monitor those who’ve been suspended over non-violent offenses. Aegis claims that it will delete all footage after 60 days and it won’t record the movements of students, staff, and visitors that aren’t in the list of individuals to monitor. That said, the system will have to analyze everyone’s faces to identify people it will have to “keep an eye on.”  So in truth, this system monitors everyone and is mass surveillance packed up to sound like security.

Teachers allegedly told to favor black students in ‘racial equity’ training - In controversial “implicit bias” training, New York City’s public-school educators have been told to focus on black children over white ones — and one Jewish superintendent who described her family’s Holocaust tragedies was scolded and humiliated, according to firsthand accounts. A consultant hired by the city Department of Education told administrators at a workshop that “racial equity” means favoring black children regardless of their socio-economic status, sources said.“If I had a poor white male student and I had a middle-class black boy, I would actually put my equitable strategies and interventions into that middle class black boy because over the course of his lifetime he will have less access and less opportunities than that poor white boy,” the consultant, Darnisa Amante, is quoted as saying by those in the room.“That’s what racial equity is,” Amante explained.Mona Davids, president of the NYC Parents Union, was appalled.“It’s completely absurd — they want to treat black students as victims and punish white students. That defeats the purpose of what bias awareness training should be,” said Davids, who is black.

The History And Results Of America's Disastrous Public School System -- All across the nation, students are being prodded like cattle into classrooms, and the one-size-fits-all approach is failing them. There is a popular saying that “the proof is in the pudding.” In the first part of this article set, my colleague Mike Margeson spelled out the historical roots of the American schooling system. He clearly laid out the blueprint that men like Horace Mann used to build a system that does anything but “educates.” Factor in that trillions of dollars have been spent on schooling, and it makes it even harder to justify.Yet we continue to hear the “Red for Ed” crowd scream for more funding. Here in the state of Indiana, the superintendent of public education is leading an assault on the state legislature for a meager 2 percent increase in state funding. Many educators are characterizing this as a decrease in funding! In no other walk of life would we continue to pour so many resources into a failed system. If you had any doubt about this after reading Part One, let me present you with some facts.In what was one of many fiery speaking engagements, the late John Taylor Gatto delivered a line that has resonated with me as I have studied the effects the public schooling system has on children. In this particular speech, Gatto was recounting the story of Jaime Escalante, the educator who successfully taught calculus at Garfield High School in Los Angeles yet was forced to resign.As he finishes describing the trials and fate of Escalante, Gatto explains that above racism and other forms of bigotry is the embedded idea that what really occurred was a deliberate attempt to stop genuine learning. Earlier in the speech, Gatto laid out a compelling case of how and why schooling is meant to keep citizens ignorant. This success at an inner city school was not going to be tolerated by the establishment. He implored his listeners to understand the real problem and to quit “fencing with shadows.”

 Parkland School Police Officer Arrested on 11 Charges Tied to Shooting — A police officer who hid for nearly an hour at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida last year while a horrible shooting took place just feet away, has been arrested for his negligence during the shooting.  Former Broward County Sheriff’s Deputy Scot Peterson was arrested this week and charged with seven counts of child neglect, three counts of culpable negligence, and one count of perjury. Peterson was the sole school resource officer on duty at the time of the shooting that day but did nothing to intervene in the attack. Seventeen people died and 17 more were injured in the shooting that may have been prevented, investigators believe, if Peterson had intervened.  Florida Department of Law Enforcement (FDLE) Commissioner Rick Swearingen told reporters that Peterson “did absolutely nothing” to help save the children whose lives were in danger that day despite having been tasked with their protection. “There can be no excuse for his complete inaction and no question that his inaction cost lives,” Swearingen said in a statement.

 Chicago Public Schools lay off hundreds of teachers and staff - On May 31, 220 Chicago Public School (CPS) teachers and 498 support staff received layoff notices. The spring term ends June 18 with classes set to resume in early September and more school closures may be in the offing. With grim regularity each summer, layoffs of Chicago Public School teachers and staff are announced. This year, the Sun Times took note of that fact, publishing figures over the last 10 years that demonstrate the depth of the cuts and the shocking drop in the total numbers of teachers employed in the CPS. Since 2009, 8,806 teachers and 8,556 classroom support staff have been laid off. Some teachers are then hired back into CPS, often at a lower pay rate, or work as substitutes for a time. This year, CPS is advertising more than 1,500 open positions for the 2019–20 school year. The greatest number of teacher and staff layoffs occurred in 2013 after the betrayal of the 2012 teachers strike, which paved the way for the closure of an unprecedented 50 public elementary schools in the poorest areas of the city. That year, 2,239 teachers and 1,716 paraprofessionals and classroom staff were laid off, representing 9.6 percent of the workforce, according to the Sun Times report. Chicago City Hall The cumulative effect of these policies has been disastrous. According to teachers, these cuts have created dangerously overcrowded classrooms and special education classes routinely operate without the minimum staff legally mandated for safety, let alone optimal learning.

New Haven teachers strike enters third week -- On Monday, the strike of 600 teachers in the New Haven Unified School District (NHUSD) in Union City, California finished its tenth day, surpassing the length of strikes earlier this year in Los Angeles and nearby Oakland. Over the weekend, the New Haven Teachers Association (NHTA) lowered their demands even further from a cost of living adjustment (COLA) over the two-year contract to a mere three percent pay increase each year and pay for the days when the teachers were on strike. The district denounced even these limited points and stressed that there would be no pay for any strike days. The last public offer from the district was a 3 percent, one-time bonus for the current school year, and a 2 percent raise beginning in January 2020. The teachers lose about 0.55 percent of their salary every day they are on strike and have sacrificed 5.5 percent of this year’s salary so far. At this point in the negotiations, even if the district were to meet the union’s current demands, New Haven teachers would suffer a pay cut against the soaring living expenses in the Bay Area, and the district’s schools will continue to be hammered by budget cuts over the course of the contract. This year NHUSD has already cut $4 million from the district budget and has planned cuts of $3.9 million for next school year and $4.7 million for the year after that. These measures include layoffs of teachers and support staff, as well as increased class sizes. Many high school teachers already have classes of between 36 and 42 students, while elementary school teachers will see theirs skyrocket from 25 to 30. In short, as long as the strike remains within the framework set by the district and the union, teachers can expect worse pay and sharply deteriorating conditions in the immediate future. This is because the entire negotiating framework is based on the political lie that there is no money to fully fund education.

Why Democratic Presidential Candidates May Have to Choose Between Teacher Pay Raises and Charter Schools - For years, the safe havens for education policy debate in the Democratic Party have been expanding pre-K programs and providing more affordable college, but in the current presidential primary contest, another consensus issue has been added to the party’s agenda: salary increases for K–12 classroom teachers. Kamala Harris has gotten the most press for coming out strongly for raising teacher wages, but other frontrunners including Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, and Bernie Sanders have also called for increased teacher pay. But what will happen when a consensus issue like teacher salary increases comes into conflict with a lightning rod issue like charter schools? That’s a scenario currently playing out in Florida.  A recent law passed by the majority Republican Florida state legislature and signed by newly elected Republican Governor Ron DeSantis will force local school districts to share portions of their locally appropriated tax money with charter schools, even if those funds are raised for the express purpose of increasing teacher salaries in district-operated public schools. (Charter schools in Florida, as in many states, do not receive funds that are raised through bond referendums, mill levies, or other forms of local funding initiatives.) Florida teachers have openly opposed the new law, and local school districts have taken it to court to have it overthrown. But given this new law, it’s not at all hard to imagine a scenario, even at the national level, where Democrats pushing to increase funds for teacher pay will have to confront an expanding charter school industry—and now voucher programs—that would claim their portion of that money to use as private institutions for whatever purposes they wish.  “The problem with charter schools isn’t that they’re competing with public schools; it’s that they’re supplanting public schools,” says Justin Katz, president of the Palm Beach County Classroom Teachers Association.

 China warns students, academics of risks of studying in U.S. - Relations between China and the United States have nosedived because of their trade conflict, U.S. sanctions on Chinese tech firm Huawei Technologies Co Ltd and tension over the disputed South China Sea and U.S. support for Chinese-claimed Taiwan. The Ministry of Education, in a short statement, said that recently some students seeking to study in the United States had encountered problems with the duration of their visas being limited and an increase in visa refusals. “This has affected Chinese students going to study in the United States or smoothly completing their studies,” it added. “The education ministry reminds students and academics of the need to strengthen risk assessment before studying abroad, enhance prevention awareness, and make corresponding preparations.”However, state television cited ministry spokeswoman Xu Mei as saying despite the trade tensions, the “general situation” for Chinese students going to the United States remained stable, and U.S. institutes of higher education welcomed Chinese students and cooperation with China. The ministry declined to offer any other details when contacted by Reuters. At stake is about $14 billion of economic activity, most of it tuition and other fees generated annually from the 360,000 Chinese nationals who study in the United States.

Students as a commodity, Sino-US trade war edition - Readers will by now be familiar with the list of industries impacted by the US China trade war. These include soyabeans, cars, steel, and semiconductors. But one commodity is increasingly important to how the tensions play out: students. The Chinese state media is now saying the government will issue a warning on the risk of studying in the US. Here is Hu Xijin, editor of the Global Times, on (where else) Twitter:   And here is the South China Morning Post, providing a quote from CCTV which relayed the government's official warning. For a period of time now, some Chinese students in the US have faced situations where their visas were restricted or delayed, the period of validity was shortened, or [their applications] were rejected. The ministry wants to remind [Chinese] students and scholars to raise their risk assessment, strengthen their preventative awareness, and make the appropriate preparations. The twenty-first century has brought with it an international market for prestige English-language education. For countries like the US, UK, Australia and Canada, the high fees paid by overseas students subsidise the costs of domestic education. For the countries that provide the students, the market is a way of exercising geopolitical influence. There is no more influential country than China. As we pointed out last summer, the UK university sector is extremely dependent on Chinese student flows. In the case of Australia, the Chinese government issued a similar warning after an escalation in political tensions between the two countries. Another precedent is the case of Saudi Arabia and Canada — which we highlightedin August. In that case, state television announced the country would suspend all of its educational exchange programs, after Ottawa expressed support for jailed human rights activists. Did anyone see this coming? The English-language export business has emerged so organically that it’s hard to believe its long-term structural consequences were thought through. The US, as the world's most powerful nation, is a slightly different case to Canada, the UK and Australia. It has cancelled the visas of dozens of Chinese scholars over the past year, as the China's official state response points out. This is what initiated the involvement of education as a bargaining chip in the trade war. China just upped the ante, implying it believes it has the upper hand.

College Admission Scandal CFO Pleads Guilty, Agrees To Cooperate With Prosecutors - The body count of participants in the largest college admission scandal of all time continues to pile up.The chief financial officer of mastermind William "Rick" Singer's firm has now pleaded guilty to racketeering charges and is cooperating with federal prosecutors, according to Bloomberg. Steven Masera, 69, assisted Singer in laundering fees and bribes that parents paid to fix their children’s college entrance exams and designate non-athletes as recruited athletes to get them preferential treatment. The cash was funneled through a sham charity called the Key Worldwide Foundation. Masera was in charge of billing the parents, many of whose children were illegitimately admitted to schools like Georgetown, Yale, Stanford and USC. The government claims that Masera helped launder between $9.5 million and $25 million. He was also responsible for sending actress Lori Loughlin and her husband an invoice in 2017 seeking a $200,000 payment just one week after one of their daughters was accepted to USC.The invoice read: "Thank you for your pledge to The Key Worldwide Foundation. Your pledge is now due. ... Our receipt letter will go out to you upon full payment."For his cooperation, prosecutors have agreed to recommend that Masera serve the "low end" of 57 to 71 months in prison. The US has agreed to give him immunity from prosecution for information he provided in an April 10 letter in hopes of leniency in sentencing. It is unclear from the agreement with prosecutors what information Masera may have for prosecutors that they don’t already know or that may lead to more arrests. He is the latest to plead guilty in the admissions scandal, joining 4 coaches and 13 parents. Last month we reported that former USC soccer coach Laura Janke was cooperating with prosecutors after pleading guilty.

 Majority Of Recent College Grads Don't Have Jobs Lined Up, Survey Shows - American students carry an aggregate pile of student loan debt equivalent to roughly $1.5 trillion, a generational burden that has helped contribute to plunging birth rates, lower home-ownership rates among young people, and even lower rates of stock ownership, as more young people dedicate more financial resources to paying down debt. But to gauge exactly how much a students' finances factor into their decisions about which school to attend and which majors to choose, MidAmerica Nazarene University surveyed 2,000 recent graduates from around the country to learn more about how they financed their degrees, and how much they will owe after graduation. Given the cost of higher education in the US, the majority of students answered that post-grad job prospects influenced the major they selected (those who answered 'no' either really enjoy studying STEM, or majored in gender studies). It might seem surprising given the financial stakes, but the survey also showed that more than 60% of recent grads didn't have jobs lined up when they received their diplomas.  For those who did choose their careers based on financial considerations, a majority said they would have picked another line of work if finances weren't a consideration (but hey, we can't all be artists).  Once upon a time, there wasn't as much of a correlation between a students' field of study and their eventual chosen career (investment bankers who studied English at Middlebury College wound up on Wall Street thanks to 'Uncle Jim's' connections). But as the world of higher education becomes increasingly costly and cut throat, situations like this are becoming increasingly rare. One of the more telling data points in the study was the gauge of graduates' feelings about the job market. Even with unemployment at multi-decade lows, a majority of graduates had a negative outlook on the job market. The overwhelming majority of students took out loans to pay for some or all of college, with 71% taking out loans and the average amount borrowed equivalent to just over $25,000. In addition to taking on loans, most college students receive at least some help from family members or other sources, as only one-quarter of respondents said they completely self-financed their degree. On average, students expect to pay off their loans in 9.5 years, meaning that most of these students will be in their mid-30s when they finally reach a zero balance. .

If You're A Millennial With Student Debt, Do Not Move To These Cities - As the businesses cycle is alive and well, despite central bank interventions, the global economy has recently cycled into a prolonged downturn expected to last throughout 2H19. This could be more disastrous news for heavily indebted millennials, who now owe approximately $1.6 trillion in student loans. A new report from WalletHub, reveals which US cities millennials have the most difficult time paying off their student debt. In the last several years, student debt has ballooned to become the second highest form of household debt after mortgages. The average 2018 student loan debt was $37,000, equating to a $392 (5% interest rate for ten years) per month payment.  Even though college graduates earned significantly more than non-graduates, there hasn't been a significant increase in earnings across some major cities to make their debt servicing manageable, thus hindering youngsters from buying homes and having families. "High balances combined with a payoff timeline that lasts into middle age force many graduates to significantly delay or forego other financial goals such as saving for retirement or buying a home," the report said.While some cities offer better job opportunities and higher wages for millennials, many other metropolitan areas across the country have a jobs environment that makes it almost impossible for college graduates to pay off their debt.Researchers used the median student loan balance against the median earnings of millennials (aged 25 and older) with a bachelor's degree in 2,510 US cities to determine the worst areas for paying off student loans.Here are WalletHub's top ten cities where millennials shouldn't move to if they have massive student debt loads:

 San Francisco May Lock Up Mentally Ill Homeless People - San Francisco authorities are expected to consider a Tuesday proposal that would force mentally ill drug addicts into treatment centers against their will, according to ABC News.  Known as conservatorship, the program has the endorsement of Mayor London Breed and others, who say it's a necessary step to deal with often-homeless addicts who may be a danger to themselves or others. The program would allow a court to appoint a public conservator for those who have been involuntarily detained for psychiatric hospitalization at least eight times in a year under section 5150 of California's welfare and institutions code. According to the report, treatment could last for up to a year. So far, San Francisco's public health department has identified 55 individuals who would qualify for the program, and 48 more who have been detained six or seven times.   Incomes are generally high in San Francisco, where the median price of a home is $1.4 million and median monthly rent for a one-bedroom unit is $3,700. But the city struggles with a growing number of homeless people — some with disturbing street behavior fueled by drugs, schizophrenia or bipolar disorder. They shuffle from the streets to jail and psychiatric care, unaware they need steady treatment, sometimes dashing into traffic or screaming at strangers. -ABC News "Anyone who's been to San Francisco recently, either in our downtown or in the neighborhoods I represent, has seen an alarming number of people who seem to be mentally ill, or in some kind of psychosis, and they seem to be not getting the care that they need," said Supervisor Rafael Mandelman, who co-sponsored the measure along with state Sen. Scott Wiener (D). The proposal faces a challenge in the 11-member SF Board of Supervisors, which has been divided on the issue. Not everyone is on board with the idea. Critics say that the measure is a violation of civil rights that runs counter to the liberal city's principles, and that San Francisco lacks the resources to accommodate the sheer number of mentally ill addicts.

You Can Almost Count on Each New Mass Shooter Being a Veteran -- “He enlisted in the Virginia National Guard in April 1996, according to spokesman A.A. Puryear. He was assigned to the Norfolk-based 1st Battalion, 111th Field Artillery Regiment, 116th Infantry Brigade Combat Team as a 13B cannon crew member. He was discharged in April 2002 and held the rank of specialist at the time, the spokesman said. His records did not indicate overseas deployments.” —CNN on latest mass shooter.    We’re supposed to overlook this bit of information. We’re supposed to focus on mental health questions or the inscrutable incomprehensible mystery of the inevitable human tragedy of mass shootings, which bizarrely and unfairly are inflicted by the universe on this particular 4 percent of humanity living in the United States, which quite irrelevantly has been glorifying violence through endless wars for many years. Is it relevant that Virginia and the United States bestow greater rights on guns than on human beings? Of course it is.  Is it relevant that you can just about count on each mass shooter having been trained in mass shooting at public expense by the U.S. military?  Hell no! If they hadn’t been trained by the world’s most far-reaching and expensive ever killing machine, they might have learned their shooting skills somewhere else — like from video games funded by the U.S. military. If they hadn’t been praised for that training, and in many cases for actually engaging in mass killing (of the right people), they might have imagined such praise (by picturing themselves in movies funded by the U.S. military).   Last November, U.S. Marine Ian David Long failed to stop doing his job. He had been employed by the U.S. government to fire a machine gun at people. That had been his job for years, and part of that time he had participated in the war on Afghanistan. He had been given awards for the fine job he’d done in combat. Nobody had been outraged. Nobody had called him names or questioned his sanity. CNN’s inaccurate headline, “Thousand Oaks gunman went from Marine vet to mass shooter. Investigators want to know why,” created a mystery where none existed. The question is not how he became a mass shooter but how so many others have managed to cease being mass shooters.

Wide-Scale Consumer Fraud- Walmart Sued For Selling Fake Medicine - A new lawsuit by the Center for Inquiry (CFI) alleges Walmart is "committing wide-scale consumer fraud and endangering the health of its customers through its sale and marketing of homeopathic medicines." The lawsuit was filed in the District of Columbia last month. CFI is also involved in a similar suit against CVS, which has been ongoing since June 2018.  "Walmart sells homeopathics right alongside real medicines, in the same sections in its stores, under the same signs," said Nicholas Little, CFI's Vice President and General Counsel. "Searches on its website for cold and flu remedies or teething products for infants yield pages full of homeopathic junk products. It's an incredible betrayal of customers' trust and an abuse of Walmart's titanic retail power." CFI defines Homeopathy as an 18th-century pseudoscience "premised on the absurd, unscientific notion that a substance that causes a particular symptom is what should be ingested to alleviate it." The nonprofit organization dedicated to defending science says these snake oil medicines that line the shelves at Walmart are diluted with limited to no traces of an active ingredient.  "Walmart can't claim it doesn't know that homeopathy is snake oil, because it runs its own enormous pharmacy business and make its own homeopathic products," said Little. "So whether it's a scientifically proven remedy like aspirin or flatly denounced junk like homeopathic teething caplets for babies, Walmart sells all of it under its in-house 'Equate' branding. It's all the same to Walmart." CFI said the use of homeopathic treatments "can result in worsened or prolonged symptoms, and in some cases, even death." "Despite being among the richest corporations on Earth and the largest retailer in the United States, Walmart chooses to further pad its massive wealth by tricking consumers into throwing their money away on sham medicinal products that are scientifically proven to be useless and potentially dangerous," said Robyn Blumner, president and CEO of the Center for Inquiry. "We intend to put a stop to it."  CFI has become the top nonprofit to advocate for science-based medicine and against the proliferation of fake drugs in major retailers.

Hospitals Accused Of Paying Doctors Large Kickbacks In Quest For Patients - For a hospital that had once labored to break even, Wheeling Hospital displayed abnormally deep pockets when recruiting doctors.To lure Dr. Adam Tune, an anesthesiologist from nearby Pittsburgh who specialized in pain management, the Catholic hospital built a clinic for him to run on its campus in Wheeling, W.Va. It paid Tune as much as $1.2 million a year — well above the salaries of 90% of pain management physicians across the nation, the federal government charged in a lawsuit filed this spring.In addition, Wheeling paid an obstetrician-gynecologist a salary as high as $1.3 million a year, so much that her department bled money, according to a related lawsuit by a whistleblowing executive. The hospital paid a cardiothoracic surgeon $770,000 and let him take 12 weeks off each year even though his cardiac team also routinely ran in the red, that lawsuit said.Despite the losses from these stratospheric salaries and perks, the recruitment efforts had a golden lining for Wheeling, the government asserts. Specialists in fields like labor and delivery, pain management and cardiology reliably referred patients for tests, procedures and other services Wheeling offered, earning the hospital millions of dollars, the lawsuit said. The problem, according to the government, is that the efforts run counter to federal self-referral bans and anti-kickback laws that are designed to prevent financial considerations from warping physicians’ clinical decisions. The Stark law prohibits a physician from referring patients for services in which the doctor has a financial interest. The federal anti-kickback statute bars hospitals from paying doctors for referrals. Together, these rules are intended to remove financial incentives that can lead doctors to order up extraneous tests and treatments that increase costs to Medicare and other insurers and expose patients to unnecessary risks.

Analysis: Why Alexa’s Bedside Manner Is Bad For Health Care - Amazon has opened a new health care frontier: Now Alexa can be used to transmit patient data. Using this new feature — which Amazon labeled as a “skill” — a company named Livongo will allow diabetes patients — which it calls “members” — to use the device to “query their last blood sugar reading, blood sugar measurement trends, and receive insights and Health Nudges that are personalized to them.” Private equity and venture capital firms are in love with a legion of companies and startups touting the benefits of virtual doctors’ visits and telemedicine to revolutionize health care, investing almost $10 billion in 2018, a record for the sector. Without stepping into a gym or a clinic, a startup called Kinetxx will provide patients with virtual physical therapy, along with messaging and exercise logging. And Maven Clinic (which is not actually a physical place) offers online medical guidance and personal advice focusing on women’s health needs. In April, at Fortune’s Brainstorm Health conference in San Diego, Bruce Broussard, CEO of health insurer Humana, said he believes technology will help patients receive help during medical crises, citing the benefits of home monitoring and the ability of doctors’ visits to be conducted by video conference. But when I returned from Brainstorm Health, I was confronted by an alternative reality of virtual medicine: a $235 medical bill for a telehealth visit that resulted from one of my kids calling a longtime doctor’s office. It was for a five-minute phone call answering a question about a possible infection. After all, my doctors have long answered my questions and dispensed phone and email advice for free — as part of our doctor-patient relationship — though it didn’t have a cool branding moniker like telehealth. And my obstetrician’s office offered great support and advice through two difficult pregnancies — maybe they should have been paid for that valuable service. But $235 for a phone call (which works out to over $2,000 per hour)? Not even a corporate lawyer bills that.

Use of Male Mice Skews Drug Research Against Women, Study Finds -The male mind is rational and orderly while the female one is complicated and hormonal. It is a stereotype that has skewed decades of neuroscience research towards using almost exclusively male mice and other laboratory animals, according to a new study. Scientists have typically justified excluding female animals from experiments – even when studying conditions that are more likely to affect women – on the basis that fluctuating hormones would render the results uninterpretable. However, according to Rebecca Shansky, a neuroscientist at Northeastern University, in Boston, it is entirely unjustified by scientific evidence, which shows that, if anything, the hormones and behaviour of male rodents are less stable than those of females. Shansky is calling for stricter requirements to include animals of both sexes in research, saying the failure to do so has led to the development of drugs that work less well in women. “People like to think they’re being objective and uninfluenced by stereotypes but there are some unconscious biases that have been applied to how we think about using female animals as research subjects that should be looked at by scientists,” she said. The male bias is seen across all fields of pre-clinical research, but one of the starkest areas is neuroscience, in which male animals outnumber females by nearly six to one. And considering the brain through a “male lens” has had public health implications, according to Shansky’sarticle, published in the journal Science.

Overdose crises lowering life expectancy: Statistics Canada - Life expectancy in Canada has stopped increasing for the first time in more than four decades, due largely to soaring overdose deaths in the Western provinces.In British Columbia, the province hit hardest by these deaths, life expectancy fell for a second year in a row, decreasing by 0.3 years for men and 0.1 years for women from 2016 to 2017, according to Statistics Canada.In Alberta, the life expectancy for men fell by 0.24 years, and for women 0.1 years, over the same period.“It is tragic and unacceptable, but not entirely surprising,” said Thomas Kerr, a professor in the department of medicine at the University of British Columbia and a senior scientist at the B.C. Centre on Substance Use.“It just reinforces that we need to do more, that governments need to do more, and we have to be very weary of the public having overdose fatigue and slowly becoming too accustomed to this problem as a new normal,” Dr. Kerr said.Life expectancy, the statistical measure of how many years a person can expect to live, is a widely used indicator of a population’s health. Global life expectancy has increased steadily over the past two centuries owing in part to improved sanitation and nutrition, the decline of child mortality, vaccines and antibiotics, and other medical advancements.According to the new Statistics Canada figures, life expectancy increased in Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Quebec and Nunavut, while there was no change in Ontario. Older men across Canada are living longer, but these gains are being offset by more deaths among younger men. The life expectancy for the average Canadian is 82 years – 84 for women and 80 for men. More than 10,300 people died of apparent opioid-related deaths across Canada between January, 2016, and September, 2018.

The Opioid Crisis Is Killing Trees Too - Green fir boughs, bright under the morning sky, were strewn across the highway. Sawdust had been crushed into the ridges of a roadside snowbank, leaving an ocher stain. Clarke, a provincial natural-resources officer, stopped his truck, got out, and tromped up and over the snowbank into the forest, followed by his supervisor, Denise Blid.Hidden behind a row of trees lay the scene Clarke and Blid had expected: a small clearing punctuated by a single large stump. The stump, nearly three feet across, had, until very recently, been the foundation of an old-growth coastal Douglas fir, a tree that Clarke calculated had stood more than 120 feet tall. Sometime during the previous few days, the tree had been illegally felled, and the wide end of its trunk abandoned. This was unusual—poachers usually take the “butt end” of a tree first, since it has the most wood—and Clarke speculated that the culprits would soon be back to pick it up. He photographed the trunk like a crime scene, measuring its dimensions and using an iPad to enter them into a database. He then followed a deep groove in the snow to the spot where the narrow end of the trunk had likely been cut into pieces for easier transport. The only remaining clue was a set of vertical cuts in the snow, left by the poachers’ chain saws. “Literally, this is what we’re finding every day,” said Blid. “This blatant illegal cutting has always been around, but it is really exploding,” Clarke says while guiding his truck through the island’s back roads. “Lately, I’ve just been run off my heels with this issue ... I honestly can’t keep up—there’s just so much of it.” Timber poaching in much of British Columbia is driven by incontrovertible human needs—the need for shelter, food, and, in some cases, the next hit of the painkiller that has taken hold of one’s brain. “I don’t think [poaching] is going to slow down if timber value goes down,” says Clarke. “Those greater socioeconomic issues—those aren’t going away anytime soon, and with that, I don’t think the timber theft is going away.”

We need worms -- Did you ever wonder why one in six children has a mental health disorder?  Did you ever wonder why 20 per cent of women, in the United States at least, have been diagnosed with depression after menopause, and why ‘chronic fatigue syndrome’ has mysteriously emerged? Why should almost half of us be allergic to something? Why should more than four in every 10 children be on medication for a chronic condition? Why do more than one in 10 women have an autoimmune condition? When asking why we get sick, we take the first step in understanding the origins of disease. If we find the answer to that question, we become empowered to prevent disease.  I started out in biomedical research asking what and how, but after stumbling into some inexplicable questions that cannot be addressed by the what and the how, I started asking why. Our Western diet is certainly a factor. And our stressful lifestyle. But we and others are coming to a fascinating conclusion: intestinal worms are almost certainly involved. But it’s not the presence of the worms that is hurting us. To the contrary, the almost complete loss of intestinal worms in modern society is, surprisingly, a very significant problem. Intestinal worms, called ‘helminths’, have caused untold human suffering, killing the weak and disabling the strong. Labelled uniformly as disease-causing parasites by biologists, they have inspired fear and hate, leading to major campaigns aimed at their eradication. The Rockefeller Foundation, for example, was originally formed to eliminate hookworm from the southern US. Their genocidal campaign was very successful, and similar campaigns are now underway in developing countries. This fearsome menace has been virtually eradicated in the US and in western Europe, and we hope to accomplish the same in developing countries. Good riddance. But what if we erred? What if our bias against a handful of helminths led us to slaughter billions of innocent and even helpful worms? Indeed, my research and the research of many others tell us that helminths are necessary for our health. A barrage of scientific evidence points toward helminths as being important regulators of immune function. Because of this, our genocidal campaign against intestinal worms apparently has a very nasty backlash that nobody saw coming. But science moves very slowly. All helminths are still labelled as parasites in textbooks, despite the fact that we now know this to be incorrect.

Ebola cases pass 2,000 as crisis escalates -- The number of Ebola cases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has doubled in just over two months and has now passed 2,000, according to the World Health Organization (WHO).An estimated 2,008 people have been infected with Ebola in the North Kivu and Ituri provinces since the start of the outbreak in late July 2018, and 1,346 of those individuals have died. The numbers represent a rapid escalation of the crisis since the outbreak passed the 1,000-case mark on 24 March (see ‘Escalating crisis’).“I’m profoundly worried,” Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the WHO’s director-general, told Nature in May. He attributes the failure to end the outbreak to mistrust of and assaults against Ebola responders — problems that have worsened this year. “The number of cases increases with the frequency of attacks,” he says. The steep increase in cases signals that the spread of Ebola in the DRC is far from under control. “Despite WHO’s extraordinary efforts to contain the outbreak, the transmission trends have moved in the wrong direction in recent weeks,” an independent committee of researchers overseeing the WHO’s response wrote in a report presented at the World Health Assembly in Geneva, Switzerland, on 21 May. Although the committee expressed confidence in the WHO’s leadership, they raised concerns about staff exhaustion and the complexity of tackling an Ebola outbreak amid conflict.

Superbugs in the Anthropocene -- Engels would certainly have considered the discovery of antibiotics as one of the greatest of “human victories over nature.” Diseases that had shortened human lives for millennia were defeated. Wounds and infections that had almost always been fatal were cured in hours. The ultimate triumph of medicine—the end of all disease—seemed about to arrive.But now the World Health Organization (WHO) says we face “a problem so serious that it threatens the achievements of modern medicine.”³ England’s Chief Medical Officer, Professor Sally Davies, calls it “a ticking time bomb not only for the UK but also for the world…arguably as important as climate change.”⁴ Nature’s revenge—the unforeseen result that cancels the first—is upon us. Miracle drugs are losing their magic. While I was writing this article, the press reported:

• A maternity hospital in Romania shut down because thirty-nine newborns were infected by a drug-resistant superbug. Eleven staff members were found to be carriers.
• In Gaza, the wounds of thousands of Palestinians shot by Israeli soldiers are infected with antibiotic-resistant bacteria, and the blockade prevents necessary medical supplies from reaching them.
• In Pakistan in the past two years, over five thousand people have contracted a strain of typhoid fever that is resistant to all recommended antibiotics.
• In an Indian hospital, a new strain of the common bacteria Klebsiella pneumoniae, described as both multidrug resistant and hypervirulent, killed more than half of the patients who contracted it.
• Tests found that 56 percent of Staphylococcusbacteria in two Afghan hospitals are resistant to multiple antibiotics.

Scarcely a day passes without more news of people contracting infections or infectious diseases that cannot be cured by the strongest medicines available. Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) is a global health crisis driven by a pharmaceutical and health care system that puts profit before people. In addition to devastating climate change, the Anthropocene may be defined by epidemics that medicine cannot cure.

If We Want Antibiotics to Work, Consumers Have to Put Big Pressure on Factory Farms -- On March 1, Denny's stopped purchasing chicken treated with medically important antibiotics for its U.S. restaurants.  Denny's joins a growing group of major fast food and fast casual chains (McDonald's, Wendy's, KFC, Chipotle and others) that have established policies prohibiting the use of medically important antibiotics in chicken. This is not the same as "antibiotic-free" claims, to be clear ("medically important" antibiotics are those used in human medicine; there are other antibiotics only used in animals), but it is a critical change that has been rippling through the food system for the past several years to protect human health. According to the World Health Organization, antibiotic resistance is one of the top 10 threats to global public health in 2019. When antibiotic medications are overused or misused, resistant bacteria can spread, causing treatments for common (and often serious) illnesses to become ineffective. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, at least 2 million Americans contract an antibiotic-resistant infection every year and 23,000 will die from it. The use of antibiotics in animal agriculture is a major part of the problem. More than 70 percent of the medically important antibiotics sold in the U.S. are sold for use in food animals. This is not because cows are particularly susceptible to strep throat; the majority of antibiotics used on animal farms are not used as treatment for diagnosed diseases in animals. Rather, most animals raised for food are raised on factory farms, or Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations (CAFOs). To produce animal products cheaply and on a large scale, animals are packed together, creating crowded, stressful and unsanitary conditions. Such conditions are inherently disease-promoting for animals. To deal with the likelihood of infections and disease associated with poor conditions without actually changing those conditions, antibiotics have become a convenient Band-Aid. As factory farming has become the predominant model for raising animals for food, more farmers have resorted to practices of routinely administering antibiotics (sometimes even delivering drugs to chicks still in the egg) to keep animals "healthy" enough to bring to slaughter. As more antibiotics are used in these conditions, more antibiotic-resistant bacteria are released into the environment.

GM fungus rapidly kills 99% of malaria mosquitoes, study suggests - BBC - A fungus - genetically enhanced to produce spider toxin - can rapidly kill huge numbers of the mosquitoes that spread malaria, a study suggests. Trials, which took place in Burkina Faso, showed mosquito populations collapsed by 99% within 45 days. The researchers say their aim is not to make the insects extinct but to help stop the spread of malaria. The disease, which is spread when female mosquitoes drink blood, kills more than 400,000 people per year. Worldwide, there are about 219 million cases of malaria each year.  The results, published in the journal Science, showed numbers soared when the insects were left alone. But when the spider-toxin fungus was used, there were just 13 mosquitoes left after 45 days "The transgenic fungus quickly collapsed the mosquito population in just two generations," said Dr Brian Lovett, from the University of Maryland. Tests also showed the fungus was specific to these mosquitoes and did not affect other insects such as bees.

Florida sugar companies hit with lawsuit to halt the controversial practice of burning sugarcane  -The burning starts in October, when sugarcane companies begin to set fire to nearly 400,000 acres on the shores of Florida’s Lake Okeechobee, clearing away the leaves to prepare the plants for harvest. When the flames die down, machines roll in to chop down the stalks and shunt them off to nearby mills for processing. For the people who live nearby, the burning means something else. Every year, for eight months, bursts of thick smoke billow from the fields into the air, causing an ash the locals call “black snow” to drift down from the sky. The particles coat their homes, their cars, and their clothes. They’re ingested by children, who develop higher rates of asthma, and by expectant mothers, who are more likely to lose the pregnancy. That’s according to two residents, Clover Coffie and Jennie Thompson, who on Tuesday filed a federal class-action lawsuit in the Southern District of Florida. The plaintiffs are seeking damages from the negative health effects of burning sugar cane fields, a practice that the South Florida Sun-Sentinel reports has been going on for decades. The lawsuit accuses U.S. Sugar, Florida Crystals, and the Sugar Cane Growers Cooperative of Florida—three of the country’s largest sugar companies—and 10 other growers and refiners, of negligence, liability for the damages caused by the burning, and trespassing (for the ash that lands on private property). In their complaint, Coffie and Thompson ask the court to force the companies to stop burning, and to set up a medical monitoring program for over 40,000 people—the population of the “affected area,” which comprises three zip codes in Palm Beach County. “They would be monitoring the health of the residents there who have been exposed to pollutants from sugar cane burning in order to identify and begin to treat any health conditions that are created in that population as a result of the sugar cane burning,” said Zach West, an attorney who filed the suit, at a press conference. “We’re also seeking full reimbursement for the depression of property values in that area related to the sugar cane burning. The costs of such a program are going to be enormous.”

Chlorinated chicken: ‘Dangerous’ practices at major US plant stoke fears of contaminated food in UK after Brexit - Channel 4’s ‘Dispatches’ exposes danger of cross-contamination with deadly bacteria – because of poor standards outlawed by EU membership.  An investigation has revealed the risk of food poisoning because of “dangerous” practices at a US chicken factory, ahead of trade talks which could force the UK to accept the meat after Brexit.The undercover probe by Channel 4 laid bare the danger of cross-contamination with the deadly bacteria salmonella and campylobacter, because of poor standards outlawed by the EU.As normal in the US, the chicken is washed in chemicals – a practice banned in the UK under EU law because scientists fear it does not remove bacteria and simply masks safety failures. Nevertheless, the US has made clear it will demand the UK accept chemical-washed poultry in any trade deal – and Liam Fox, the international trade secretary, has suggested a ban will be impossible.The expose by the Dispatches programme – ahead of exploratory trade talks between Theresa May and Donald Trump on his state visit – uncovered:

• * Piles of chicken left on conveyor belts for long periods of time, at the risk of cross contamination.
• * Boxes of chicken stacked on top of each other – which could also cause cross-contamination.
• * Workers touching raw chicken with bare hands – while one cleared drains with gloved hands, merely washing the gloves before going back to touching raw chicken.
• * Drains blocked with chicken – while pieces of and innards lay on the floor and water leaked from machinery.

Chicken Farmers Thought Trump Was Going to Help Them. Then His Administration Did the Opposite. Under Obama, top officials had promised to help farmers by tightening regulations on meat processing companies, which for decades had been growing bigger and more powerful. The industry consolidation extended to beef, dairy and pork as well as poultry, but the Obama administration was particularly concerned about the effects on farmers who raise chickens on contract for giants such as Tyson Foods and Pilgrim’s Pride. Farmers complained that they had been lured into the business with rosy profit projections only to discover that the processing companies — which they depend on for supplies of chicks and feed — could suddenly change their contract terms to impose additional costs or drop them for any reason. By the time the Obama administration finally pushed through the rules meant to address these problems in December 2016, Donald Trump, a Republican, had won the White House, backed by many farmers who said they had been let down by Obama, a Democrat. Now, some say their expectation that Trump would be different may have been misplaced. Over the last two years, Trump appointees have not only reversed the regulations put in place at the end of Obama’s presidency, they have retreated from enforcing the preexisting rules. The Trump administration dissolved the office charged with policing meat companies for cheating and defrauding farmers. Fines for breaking the rules dropped to $243,850 in 2018, less than 10% of what they were five years earlier.

African Swine Fever Is Spreading Fast and Eliminating It Will Take Decades - The deadly pig virus that jumped from Africa to Europe is now ravaging China’s $128 billion pork industry and spreading to other Asian countries, an unprecedented disaster that has prompted Beijing to slaughter millions of pigs. But stopping African swine fever isn’t so easy. The virus that causes the hemorrhagic disease is highly virulent and tenacious, and spreads in multiple ways. There’s no safe and effective vaccine to prevent infection, nor anything to treat it. The widespread presence in China means it’s now being amplified across a country with 440 million pigs—half the planet’s total—with vast trading networks, permeable land borders and farms with little or no ability to stop animal diseases.  The number of pigs China will fatten this year is predicted to fall by 134 million, or 20%, from 2018—the worst annual slump since the U.S. Department of Agriculture began counting China’s pigs in the mid-1970s. While the pig virus doesn’t harm humans even if they eat tainted pork, the fatality rate in pigs means it could destroy the region’s pork industry.  Spain’s experience with the disease suggests that a cull alone won’t be enough to solve the problem. The country implemented strict sanitary measures and industrialized its hog production system but it took 35 years and help from the European Union before the disease was eradicated in 1995. The Italian island of Sardinia has been trying unsuccessfully to get rid of the virus for four decades, and its hog population is a fraction of China’s.  One of the reasons why African swine fever is so hard to eradicate is that it’s easy to transmit. In addition to direct contact with an infected pig, the virus can be passed on to animals that eat virus-laden pork or feed, via contaminated clothing or equipment or when a pig drinks water containing even minute quantities of the virus.  Studies show that the strain in China closely resembles one that’s been spreading inRussia and other parts of Europe for more than a decade. But scientists still don’t know the route it took to get into the world’s most populous nation. Without knowing how the virus got in, China’s customs officials will have a harder time preventing repeated introductions.The disease is now in Mongolia, Vietnam, North Korea and possibly other neighboring countries that lack the resources to identify and control the disease. That increases the risk that, even if China does manage to control the disease domestically, it could re-enter the country via people or pork products that cross the border.

DARPA Can Exterminate Humanity- You Could Feasibly Wipe-Out The Human Race -  One of the most dangerous experiments that mankind has ever embarked upon is DARPA’s desire for gene drive technology. Scientists now have the knowledge and the tools they need to create and deliver “Doomsday genes” which can selectively target and exterminate an entire species. According to Sputnik News, and as previously reported by SHTFPlan,  the United States highly-secretive and advanced military research body DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency) announced that it will invest tens of millions of dollars into genetic extinction research. While the official aim of this research is said to be fighting harmful insects, like mosquitos which carry Malaria, there are significantly darker implications and speculations surrounding the possible use of such a tool. Joe Joseph of The Daily Sheeple said a quick Google search would give you enough information to let you know how horrific this kind of technology can be.“…and you’ll find it fascinating just at how unbelievable a weapon this could be, how unintentionally mistakes can be made that can cause irreversible damage... irreparable damage... to the human race. And I mean, FAST!” Joseph said.“A gene drive... if let’s just say there’s a mistake, you could feasibly wipe out the human race in a very very short period of time. It’s an unbelievable tool at the disposal of madmen.” Emails released under the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA), suggest that the U.S.’s uber-secretive military body, DARPA, has become the world’s largest funder of this “gene drive” research. Silvia Ribeiro, Latin America director of the ETC Group, an international organization dedicated to the conservation and sustainable advancement of cultural and ecological diversity and human rights, said:  “When it is developed under an umbrella of military research, you get a clear notion that there can be a dual purpose of this research.” Jim Thomas, a co-director of the ETC group which obtained the emails, said the US military’s influence in furthering this technology would strengthen the case for a moratorium. “The dual-use nature of altering and eradicating entire populations is as much a threat to peace and food security as it is a threat to ecosystems,” he said. “Militarization of gene drive funding may even contravene the Enmod convention against hostile uses of environmental modification technologies.”   Humanity is known for making mistakes, but we can’t come back from an extinction of our own making..

'Forever chemicals' found in seafood, meats and chocolate cake, FDA says - Significant levels of chemicals linked to an array of health problems have been found in seafood, meats and chocolate cake sold in stores to US consumers, the Food and Drug Administration has found.The levels in nearly half of the meat and fish tested by researchers were at least double the federal advisory level for perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances, or PFAS,a group of more than 4,700 synthetic chemicals used for a variety of industrial purposes.Meanwhile, the FDA report found much higher levels in the chocolate cake, the Associated Press reported, with PFAS levels of more than 250 times the federal guidelines.PFAS have been in production since the second world war and are most widely used to make non-stick cookware, food packaging, carpets, couches, pizza boxes and firefighting foam. The ubiquity of PFAS means they are found in virtually all Americans’ blood, as well as in the drinking water of about 16 million people in the US.Public health groups have criticized the Trump administration for not acting more quickly to phase out the use of PFAS, with high levels of the chemicals on US military bases causing heightened concern and lawsuits in parts of the country.Exposure to high levels of PFAS has been linked to cancers, liver problems, low birth weight and other issues.  The compounds have been dubbed “forever chemicals” because they take thousands of years to degrade, and because some accumulate in people’s bodies. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) earlier established a non-binding health threshold of 70 parts per trillion for two phased-out forms of the contaminant in drinking water. The EPA has said it would consider setting mandatory limits instead after the toxicology report and after federally mandated PFAS testing of water systems found contamination. The administration has called dealing with PFAS a “potential public relations nightmare” and a “national priority”.

PFAS Chemicals Contaminate U.S. Food Supply, FDA Confirms - The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has found per- and polyfluoroalykyl substances, or PFAS, infoods including grocery store meat, fish and chocolate cake, The Associated Press reported Monday.The findings were first obtained by the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) and published by the Environmental Working Group, then confirmed by the FDA Monday, CNN reported.The FDA tests found PFAS in chocolate cake at levels more than 250 times the only federal safety guidelines that exist, for some types of PFAS in drinking water, according to The Associated Press."What this calls for is additional research to determine how widespread this contamination is and how high the levels are," Director of the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences Linda Birnbaum told The Associated Press. "We have to look at total human exposure — not just what's in the water or what's in the food ... or not just dust. We need to look at the sum totals of what the exposures are."CNN explained why PFAS contamination is so concerning:PFAS is a family of nearly 5,000 synthetic chemicals that are extremely persistent in the environment and in our bodies.  These chemicals all share signature elemental bonds of fluorine and carbon, which are extremely strong and difficult to break down in the environment or in our bodies. These chemicals can easily migrate into the air, dust, food, soil and water and can accumulate in the body. They've been linked to adverse health impacts including liver damage, thyroid disease, decreased fertility, high cholesterol, obesity, hormone suppression and cancer.They were invented by DuPont in 1938, initially for non-stick cookware. But they are now used by a variety of industries to repel grease and water in items from packaging to carpets to outdoor gear, and they are also an important ingredient in firefighting foam, which is often used by the Defense Department to fight jet fires, The Associated Press reported.

A trail of toxicity: the US military bases making people sick - As the only community urban farm left in the sprawling city, Venetucci Farm is a beloved institution in Colorado Springs, educating thousands of children about agriculture, sustainability and healthy eating and known above all for its annual pumpkin giveaways.  But now the pumpkins are bought elsewhere. The produce is no longer available for public consumption because farming activities have stopped. In 2016, irrigation water was found to be contaminated with elevated levels of perfluorinated compounds (PFCs).The foundation that runs the farm has joined forces with a local water district to sue the US Air Force, alleging that toxic chemicals used in firefighting foam at a nearby base have tainted the water, perhaps for decades, prompting health worries and causing economic losses.Similar concerns have been raised about dozens of other bases across the country. But the problem is not limited to areas close to military installations.PFCs and related human-made chemicals, more generally known as per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), have been virtually unregulated since at least the 1950s. As well as at industrial sites, airports and bases, PFAS have long been used in household products thanks to their grease- and stain-resistant properties. They are everywhere: from fast-food packaging to carpets and furniture, water-repellent clothing and non-stick cookware such as Teflon. The extraordinary resilience that led to them being dubbed “forever chemicals” no longer seems such a boon. As more becomes known about their widespread presence in the environment and the potential health risks, activists are urging state and federal regulators take action to increase oversight and even ban PFAS outright.A 2007 study estimated that PFAS are in the blood of 98% of Americans, whilelast year an analysis by the not-for-profit Environmental Working Group found that more than 1,500 drinking water systems nationwide could be contaminated by PFAS, affecting as many as 110 million people. Studies suggest that certain PFAS may affect the growth, learning and behaviour of infants and older children; lower a woman’s chance of getting pregnant; interfere with the body’s natural hormones; increase cholesterol levels; affect the immune system; and increase the risk of kidney and testicular cancer and thyroid problems.

People Eat 50,000+ Microplastics Every Year, New Study Finds -- A new study published in the journal Environmental Science & Technology found that the average person swallows about 50,000 pieces of plastic per year and inhales about the same amount. Microplastics — bits of plastic invisible to the human eye — are in our food, drinks, air, and increasingly in our stomachs and lungs.  But if eating 50,000 pieces of plastic per year isn't alarming enough, the true number is likely much higher. The researchers only looked at a small number of foods and drinks. And, drinking bottled water drastically increases the amount of microplastics you consume, The Guardian reports.  "Individuals who meet their recommended water intake through only bottled sources may be ingesting an additional 90,000 microplastics annually, compared to 4,000 microplastics for those who consume only tap water," the study reads.  While you may try to reduce your plastic intake by not drinking from plastic bottles or eschewing plastic cutlery, you can't avoid it all together. The study authors note that microplastics are ubiquitous across ecosystems. The researchers reviewed 26 previous studies that analyzed the amounts of microplastic particles in fish, shellfish, added sugars, salts, alcohol, tap or bottled water, and air. They then extrapolated U.S. dietary guidelines to calculate how many particle people would eat annually.  The studies available only allowed the researchers to look at a small percentage of foods. "We don't know a huge amount. There are some major data gaps that need to get filled," said Kieran Cox, at the University of Victoria in Canada, who led the research, as The Guardian reported.Foods like bread, processed products, meat, dairy and vegetables, may well contain just as much plastic, he said to The Guardian. "It is really highly likely there is going to be large amounts of plastic particles in these. You could be heading into the hundreds of thousands."

More Microplastics in Deep Sea Than Great Pacific Garbage Patch --  Microplastics have infiltrated the earth's largest ecosystem: the deep ocean. Researchers at the Monterey Bay Aquarium and the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute (MBARI) used small drone submarines to take sea-water samples from the ocean surface all the way down to the floor, at 3,200 feet. They found that there were actually more microplastics 1,000 feet below sea level than there are in the Great Pacific Garbage Patch, USA Today reported. The findings come as people around the world prepare to celebrate World Oceans Day Saturday and gives new insight into how plastics impact the entire marine environment.  Microplastics In The Ocean Are A Mega Problem: Plastic Pollution Runs Deep In Monterey Bay – YouTube   "We didn't think there would be four times as much plastic floating at depth than at the surface," Monterey Bay Aquarium Chief Scientist Kyle Van Houtan told USA Today. But that is what the researchers found when they compared their samples.  The samples were taken off the California coast in Monterey Bay, where the continent suddenly plummets, making it easier for researchers to investigate a part of the ocean whose plastic content has not been studied in depth, NPR reported. "The deep ocean is the largest ecosystem on the planet," Van Houtan told NPR, "and we don't know anything about the plastic in the deep ocean."The research, published in Scientific Reports Thursday, begins to fill in that knowledge gap. It found that the highest concentration of microplastics was between 600 and 2,000 feet below sea level. The maximum concentration discovered was 16 particles per cubic meter of water, four particles per cubic meter more than are found in the garbage patch.

There’s an Ugly Side to the Makeup Aisle, and It’s Killing the Planet -Health and beauty products are meant to be aesthetically pleasing.It’s a category in which packaging is as important as ingredients when it comes to standing out in a galaxy of cute little containers. It’s also an industry with a built-in advantage, since looking younger, smelling nicer or simply not having bad breath tends to sell itself. Mix in the omnipresence of its advertising, and you have one of the more reliable sectors for growth.But all of that packaging and all of that growth makes for a pretty big pile of consumer waste.Every year, 120 billion units of cosmetics packaging are produced, and mostly for one-time use. Empty containers are often too small for recycling, and mixed-material items end up going straight to a landfill. Meanwhile, many of the beauty products purchased often sit unused, gathering dust and eventually ending up as trash—replaced with fresh items from the store.  According to the LCA Centre, a Netherlands-based group that studies the environmental impact of packaging, some 70% of carbon emissions attributable to the industry could be eliminated if people simply used refillable containers.

France moves to ban destruction of unsold consumer goods --Luxury fashion brand Burberry created a maelstrom last year when it was found to be incinerating its own unsold merchandise. The company admitted it was destroying €32 million (US$36m) in goods annually to "protect intellectual property and prevent illegal counterfeiting by ensuring the supply chain remains intact."  Destroying goods is not an uncommon practice in the fashion industry and among online retailers such as Amazon, but in light of growing environmental concerns, such actions appear shockingly out of touch with responsible resource use. I wrote at the time,"There are accounts of H&M and Nike slashing unsold merchandise to prevent it from entering the counterfeit market, of luxury watchmaker Richemont destroying merchandise, and fashion brand Céline destroying 'all the old inventory so there was no physical reminder of what had come before.'" Now in France, the government is stepping in. Prime Minister Edouard Philippe said the country will be implementing a ban on destroying unsold or returned consumer products. The prime minister's office reported that over €650 million (US$733m) in goods are thrown away or destroyed every year in France. Said Philippe, "It is a waste that shocks, that is shocking to common sense. It's a scandal." The ban would apply to non-food products, including clothes, hygiene products, cosmetics, and electric items. Companies would have to hand over their products for reuse or recycling. The French cabinet will discuss the measure in July, and it is projected to come into force by 2023 at the latest.

 Shipment of trash finally on way back to Canada from the Philippines - A shipment of waste that has become a source of diplomatic stress between the Manila and Ontario is heading back to Canada six years after the containerised cargo arrived on Philippine shores. “Finally, the containers of garbage transported from Canada and stored at the Subic Bay Freeport for several years now have been pulled out as of today, May 31, 2019,” Wilma Eisma, Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority (SBMA) chair announced before noon on Friday. A total of 69 containers filled with all sorts of garbage were loaded onto the Liberian-flagged container ship MV Bavaria for a several days voyage to North America. The ship was commissioned by Canada to take back the shipment to its point of origin.“This is one proud moment for all Filipinos,” Eisma said. The containerised trash, composing of all sort of refuse from plastic bags to household waste and soiled diapers, were part of a total 103 containers brought to Manila and Subic in Central Philippines between 2013 and 2014. The importer, Chronic Plastics of Ontario and its Filipino counterparts had labelled the shipment as “recyclable materials” to get it past customs, but as it turned out, the cargo contained garbage and possible toxic waste. Through the years, some of the wastes had been disposed off in landfills. The shipment of trash has been a source of strain in relations between Ontario and Manila. The cargo had reached the Philippines during the administration of President Benigno Aquino III, but it took up the term of term of President Rodrigo Duterte, to resolve the issue.

China is refusing to take 'foreign garbage' from the US, so these these 6 cities are burning or throwing away your recycling - If you throw your plastic bottles in the recycling bin, it may feel like you've done your part to conserve the environment. That effort could quickly be undone depending on where you live. As recycling becomes more expensive for local governments, many cities have resorted to incinerating recyclable goods or disposing of them in landfills. To understand how cities got to this point, it's helpful to trace the path of recycling in the US.  Prior to 2018, most of the country's recycled waste was shipped to China, where it was converted into new uses like shoes, gadgets, and plastic products. That all changed on January 1, 2018, when China officially banned the import of "foreign garbage," a category that includes 24 types of recyclable and solid waste. Though China previously sorted through waste to separate out recyclable materials, officials determined that there was too much trash mixed in to make it worth their while. Now Malaysia, whichbecame a prime dumping ground for the world's plastic in the wake of China's ban, faces a similar issue.  In May, the nation announced that it would send 3,000 metric tons of plastic waste (or over 6.6 million pounds) back to exporting countries such as the US. "If you ship to Malaysia, we will return it back without mercy," Malaysia's environment minister, Yeo Bee Yin,told Reuters. This leaves US recycling companies without even fewer places to send their heaps of cardboard and plastic. The New York Times reports that recycling companies have started charging cities up to four times more to accept recyclable goods. Today, dozens of US cities — including a few major ones — are treating their recyclable items as trash. Take a look at the places where your recycling isn't actually getting recycled.

As Developing Countries Reject Plastic Waste Exports, Wealthy Nations Seek Solutions - Less than two years after China banned most imports of scrap material from abroad, many of its neighbors are following suit. On May 28, 2019, Malaysia’s environment minister announced that the country was sending 3,000 metric tons of contaminated plastic wastes back to their countries of origin, including the United States, Canada, Australia and the United Kingdom. Along with the Philippines, which is sending 2,400 tons of illegally exported trash back to Canada, Malaysia’s stance highlights how controversial the global trade in plastic scrap has become. Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam are all halting flows of plastics that once went to China but were diverted elsewhere after China started refusing it. They are finding support from many nations that are concerned about waste dumping and marine plastic pollution. At a meeting in Geneva in May 2019, 186 countries agreed to dramatically restrict international trade in scrap plastics to prevent plastics dumping. The new plastics restriction allows less-wealthy countries to exercise their sovereign right not to accept materials they are ill-equipped to handle. This narrows options for wealthy countries that used to send much of their plastic and paper scrap abroad, and is a small but symbolic step toward curbing plastic waste.  The Basel Convention, which governs the international waste trade, was adopted in 1989 in response to egregious cases of hazardous waste dumping on communities in Africa, the Caribbean and Asia. The new provision, proposed by Norway with broad international support, takes a more aggressive approach. It moves plastic scrap from one category – wastes that can be traded unless directly contaminated – to another group of materials that are not deemed hazardous per se, but are subject to the same trade controls as those classified as hazardous. Now these plastics can be shipped overseas for disposal or recycling only with the express consent of the importing country. The United States signed the treaty in 1989, but never ratified it and is not bound by the treaty’s terms. However, Basel Convention member countries cannot accept any restricted waste imports from the United States unless they have reached a bilateral or regional agreement that meets Basel’s environmental provisions. The U.S. already has such an agreement with fellow OECD member countries.

Trash rivers: these 10 rivers are responsible for most plastic that flows out to the seas -  Cheap, durable and multifunctional, plastic is one of humanity’s most successful inventions. From the 1950s to 2015, we’ve produced 8.3 billion metric tons of the stuff. By now, it’s everywhere. It’s also non-biodegradable. And that’s devastating the environment. Only 9% of all plastic waste has been recycled, and another 12% has been incinerated. That means that almost 80%—nearly 6.3 billion tons—has turned into waste with no half-life to speak of: condemned to an eternity as landfill, litter or ocean-clogging junk.Every year, plastic kills around 1 million seabirds, 100,000 sea mammals and inestimable numbers of fish. The volume of plastic trash in the world’s oceans is currently estimated to be around 150 million tons. No less than eight million tons are added to that every year—that’s one truckload every minute. Between 0.5 and 2.75 million tons come from rivers alone.Large rivers are particularly efficient conveyors of plastic waste to the oceans, especially in countries lacking a well-developed waste management infrastructure. Up to 95% of river-borne plastic comes from just 10 rivers, scientists at the Helmholtz Center for Environmental Research in Leipzig, Germany have found. The scientists analysed data on both microplastic debris (<5mm) such as beads and fibres, as well as microplastic objects (plastic bottles, bags, etc.) from 79 sampling sites on 57 of the world’s largest rivers, singling out the 10 mapped out here as the biggest culprits, due to “mismanagement of plastic waste in their watersheds”.As this map shows, eight of the rivers are in Asia.

Mass die-off of puffins recorded in the Bering Sea -- A mass die-off of seabirds in the Bering Sea may be partially attributable to climate change, according to a new study publishing May 29 in the open-access journal PLOS ONE by Timothy Jones of the citizen science program COASST at University of Washington, Lauren Divine from the Aleut Community of St Paul Island Ecosystem Conservation Office, and colleagues. The birds appeared to have died from the effects of starvation.  Tufted puffins breeding in the Bering Sea, off the coast of Alaska, feed on fish and marine invertebrates, which in turn feed on ocean plankton. Elevation of sea temperatures has led to major changes in ocean ecosystems, and has been linked to previous mass mortality events in marine birds. Beginning in 2014, increased atmospheric temperatures and decreased winter sea ice led to declines in energy-rich prey species in the Bering Sea, as well as a shift of some species more northward, diminishing puffin food resources in the southern portion of the sea.  In the current study, Jones and colleagues documented a four-month-long die-off of puffins and a second species, the Crested auklet, on St. Paul Island, one of the Pribilof Islands in the southern Bering Sea, about 300 miles east of the mainland. Beginning in October 2016, tribal and community members recovered over 350 severely emaciated carcasses, mostly adults in the process of molting, a known nutritional stressor during the avian life cycle. A reduction in food resources before entering molt may have prevented many birds from surviving, the authors suggest.

Hundreds of Birds Died During Test of a 5G Antenna In The Netherlands - A few months ago, more than 300 birds fell dead throughout the city of The Hague (Netherlands), and although initially the real causes were kept a secret, the magnitude of what happened was so great that a half revealed the truth… As reported by the Healthnut News website, a new 5G antenna, placed in the area for the purpose of a test, killed hundreds of birds. The technicians in charge of the project sought to determine how large the antenna’s reach was and whether its use would cause damage around the station. However, it caused much more than they had anticipated. As soon as the antenna was activated, the birds began to fall dead from the trees. In addition, some ducks that were swimming in a nearby place also reacted strangely, placing their heads under the water to escape the radiation and others flew trying to get away from the area… A statement said : If all suffered heart failure with a healthy body, no signs of virus, no bacterial infection, healthy blood, no poisons were found, etc., the only reasonable explanation is that the new 5G microwave technology has a great negative effect on all the hearts of birds! “… According to a publication on Facebook of John Kuhles: The birds were victims of an experiment, conducted in The Hague, where RF radiation was tested with a maximum frequency of 7.40 GHz. However, this information is not confirmed. So far it is unknown if new tests have been carried out with 5G transmission masts; however, other strange events have occurred that could suggest it, such as what happened to some cows in Loppersum where a 5G antenna was also tested. Previously in Switzerland, other 5G tests could have caused a whole group of cows to be thrown into a ravine…

 NOAA Is Investigating 70 Gray Whale Deaths Along the West Coast – So far this year, 70 gray whales have washed up on beaches along the west coast from California to Alaska, enough that last Friday the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration declared an “unusual mortality event” and launched an investigation into why the whales are dying. Reuters reports that thus far 37 dead whales have been found in California, three in Oregon, 25 in Washington, five in Alaska and an additional five along the coast of British Columbia. The Associated Press reports that many living whales are appearing in unusual places they usually don’t visit during migration, like Puget Sound and San Francisco Bay, likely searching for food, which puts them in even more danger. Four whales found in California were struck by ships near San Francisco.Each spring, the whales migrate about 5,000 miles from their birthing grounds in Mexico to their feeding grounds in Alaska. The whales only feed while in Arctic waters, feasting on small crustaceans called amphipods. They have to fuel up enough to survive their entire 10,000-mile round trip migration route, reports Kate Williams at The Oregonian..If they don’t pack on the blubber while in Alaska, they won’t have enough energy to complete their journey down south and back again. That seems to be the case with the majority of whales examined so far. Most of the deceased animals are emaciated with very little body fat. It’s likely that the 70 whales are are just a fraction of the whales that have died on the migratory journey so far this spring, since most whales actually sink to the ocean floor when they die.

 Michigan attorney general seizes cell phone of former governor Snyder in probe of Flint water crisis - The Michigan State Attorney General’s Office confirmed Monday that it had obtained search warrants to seize cell phones, laptop computers and iPads of former Governor Rick Snyder and dozens of other state officials as part of an ongoing criminal investigation into the Flint water crisis.In addition to those belonging to Snyder, the devices of 65 other current or former officials were acquired by the prosecution team under the newly-elected Democratic administration of Governor Gretchen Whitmer. The officials whose state-owned devices are being seized include former senior adviser Richard Baird, Lt. Governor Brian Calley, Chief of Staff Dick Posthumus and former cabinet members Nick Lyon of the Department of Health and Human Services and Dan Wyant, who headed the Department of Environmental Quality (MDEQ), the agency responsible for drinking water safety. These measures do not guarantee that criminal charges will be laid against the culpable individuals. Neither Snyder nor any other top official has been charged to date in connection with a criminal conspiracy that led to the deaths of dozens of people and poisoned the water supply of a city of 100,000 residents, mostly moderate and low-income workers. The longer-term health effects of lead poisoning on thousands of residents of the former center of General Motors car production, including children, remain unknown. Certain things, however, are known. The toxic water was responsible for an outbreak of Legionnaires Disease that sickened possibly hundreds and killed from 13 to more than 100 people. Almost 300 miscarriages resulted and the fertility rate in the city fell by 12 percent. The economic devastation to working class families, including the collapse of home values, massive health bills and expenses related to relying on bottled water continues to mount five years after the state and city switched the water supply to the heavily polluted Flint River.

Texas struggles to keep pace as thirst for water intensifies  --About 1,000 people arrive in Texas each day, drawn by jobs, newly built homes and other opportunities. But in a state where prolonged drought is a regular occurrence, officials are struggling to ensure they can sate everyone’s thirst.  Water experts are trying to determine how “resilient” the state’s water infrastructure is in keeping safe drinking water flowing through the taps. There are indications that the system is more fragile than once thought: After Hurricane Harvey in 2017, more than 200 public water systems shut down or warned customers to boil their tap water. Months later, 3,700 Texans still lacked access to safe drinking water. Before that storm, 30 towns in 2013 were within six months of running out of water as a drought continued to grip the state.  “The state is growing so fast that we’re constantly playing catch-up when it comes to building resilient water supplies,” said Robert Mace, executive director of The Meadows Center for Water and the Environment at Texas State University. “The question is: When the bad times come will there be enough water for everybody?” As the planet warms and weather patterns turn more extreme, droughts — as well as floods — in the state generally have worsened. Meanwhile, the state population is expected to double by 2050 to more than 50 million people. Some Texas cities are seen as models in planning years in advance to keep supplies flowing to customers. But the big-ticket projects in Texas and greater push for long-term planning — the state every five years updates its water strategy based on a 50-year outlook — smack head-on against infrastructure defined by aging water lines, outdated treatment plants and smaller utilities focused on their own interests rather than regional ones.

 Extreme weather has made half of America look like Tornado Alley - WaPo - Tornadoes have been popping up every day in the U.S. as if coming off an assembly line. They’re part of an explosion of extreme weather events, including record flooding, record cold and record heat. Wednesday brought more of the same, with tornado watches in the Midwest and Atlantic seaboard and 37 million Americans facing an “enhanced” risk of severe weather, according to the National Weather Service.All of which raises the question: Is this climate change, or just an unusually bad year?For years, scientists have warned that climate change caused by human activity — primarily the burning of fossil fuels and the spike in atmospheric greenhouse gases — would make extreme weather events more likely. But tornadoes have never fit neatly into the climate change narrative. They’re eccentric and quirky. Until this year, the U.S. was in something of a tornado drought.Twisters seem to follow a boom-and-bust cycle. There weren’t many tornadoes in 2018. So far this century, two years — 2008 and 2011 — jump off the charts, each with more than 2,000 reported tornadoes. This year, there have been nearly 1,000. The immediate driver of the violent weather is the jet stream, the powerful winds at high altitudes that sweep west to east across North America. The jet stream since May 14 has created conditions ripe for twisters. Seven deaths have been reported so far in the tornado assault of May. That’s a low death toll compared to some tornado seasons, but the steady, percussive nature of the storms — the daily pounding — has been anomalous. “Every day, somewhere in the United States is getting pummeled by tornadoes and hail,” said Victor Gensini, a professor of meteorology at Northern Illinois University. There’s plenty of water in the mix, too. The Mississippi River is projected to reach 14 feet above flood stage in St. Louis, the second-highest on record. The river has been above flood stage at Vicksburg, Miss., since Feb. 17, the longest stretch of flooding since 1927, the year of the famed “Great Flood.” And the Arkansas River is rising rapidly and poised to approach record flood stages in Tulsa and other cities. There’s been too much rain and not enough places to put it. Meanwhile it’s been so cold and wet in California that the ski resort of Mammoth has seen more than two feet of snow this month and may stay open until August.  In the usually broiling desert city of Phoenix on Memorial Day, the thermometer topped out at a pleasant 79 degrees, which is 19 degrees below average. The Deep South would love to be so lucky: Temperatures have hit 100 in many cities, breaking records.

Mississippi River flood is longest-lasting in over 90 years, since 'Great Flood' of 1927 - Flooding in at least 8 states along portions of the Mississippi River – due torelentless, record-breaking spring rainfall – is the longest-lasting since the "Great Flood" of 1927, the National Weather Service said. The 1927 flood, which Weatherwise magazine called "perhaps the most underrated weather disaster of the century," remains the benchmark flood event for the nation's biggest river. Anytime a modern flood can be mentioned in the same breath as the Great Flood is newsworthy: During that historic flood, hundreds of thousands of people fled their homes as millions of acres of land and towns went underwater.  At one point in 1927, along the Tennessee border, the Mississippi rose an astonishing 56.5 feet above flood stage, and in Arkansas, the river ballooned to 80 miles wide, according to the book Extreme Weather by Christopher Burt.  While the scale of this year's flood may not match the 1927 catastrophe, in terms of longevity, this year's flood rivals that one: For example, In Vicksburg, Mississippi, the river went above flood stage on Feb. 17, and has remained in flood ever since. The weather service said this is the longest continuous stretch above flood stage since 1927. In Baton Rouge, Louisiana, the Mississippi first rose above flood stage in early January, and has been above that level ever since, the National Weather Service said. If this record-long stretch extends well into June, it would break the record from 1927, according to the Weather Channel.  And farther north, the Mississippi River at the Quad Cities of Iowa and Illinois saw its longest stretch above major flood stage ever recorded, even surpassing that of 1927.  A large portion of the downtown of Davenport, Iowa, was also swamped by the flooding. Davenport's public works department has spent more than $1 million on fighting floods this spring and that figure is expected to rise as the city prepares to hold back future deluges, officials said. All of this year's flooding is due to both early spring snowmelt and seemingly endless rain: Since the start of 2019, much of the lower Ohio and lower Mississippi River Valleys have picked up more than 2 feet of rain. A few spots have even received over 40 inches of rain, the Weather Channel said.

May Rainfall Smashed Monthly Records, Leading to Record River Flooding in Parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas - Heavy rainfall over the past few weeks shattered all-time May records, swelling rivers to record levels in parts of Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri and Oklahoma.So far, nine locations have set new record river levels during this prolonged siege of heavy rain.Hardest hit, so far, is the Arkansas River, where record levels have already been set near Ponca City, Oklahoma,Van Buren/Fort Smith, Dardanelle, Morrilton and Toad Suck Reservoir, Arkansas. The record at Morrilton, Arkansas, had stood since the Great Flood of 1927.For the first time, the U.S. Army Corps fully opened all gates at the Ozark Lock and Dam near the town of Ozark, Arkansas, Tuesday, essentially allowing the swollen river to move freely through the structure.The river also reached its highest level since the 1986 flood in Tulsa, Oklahoma, putting unprecedented stress on the levee system, and crested at its highest level since 1943 in Muskogee, Oklahoma, due to heavy rain upstream in northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Given this forecast, water could also overtop levees in Conway and Faulkner Counties, including the Lollie Levee, affecting areas in the city of Conway, Arkansas, about 25 miles northwest of Little Rock. At least one levee has already been overtopped in Perry County.Next week, the highest crests since 1945 in Little Rock and 1957 in Pine Bluff, Arkansas, are possible, though record flooding isn't expected in either location, according to the National Weather Service.Floodwater had already overtaken Island Harbor Estates and Regional Park in Pine Bluff on Memorial Day. Over 300 river gauges in the United States are reporting levels above flood stage, primarily in the nation's midsection.

Assessing the U.S. Climate in May 2019 – NOAA  - For May, the average contiguous U.S. temperature was 59.5°F, 0.7°F below the 20th century average and ranked in the bottom third of the 125-year record. Despite the cool May, meteorological spring (March–May) had near-average temperatures. The seasonally averaged temperature for the Lower 48 was 50.9°F, 0.1°F below average and ranked in the middle third of the record. The first five months of 2019 were marked by large regional variability in temperature, but when averaged, the contiguous U.S. temperature was 43.4°F, 0.1°F above the 20th century average and also ranked in the middle third of the January–May record. The May precipitation total for the contiguous U.S. was 4.41 inches, 1.50 inches above average, and ranked second wettest in the 125-year period of record for May as well as second wettest for all months since January 1895. The current record of 4.44 inches occurred in May 2015.  Continuing a wet trend, both the spring and year-to-date precipitation totals for the contiguous U.S. were well-above average. The spring precipitation total was 9.85 inches, 1.91 inches above average and the sixth wettest spring on record, while the year-to-date precipitation total was 15.71 inches, 3.32 inches above average and ranked as the wettest year-to-date period for the contiguous U.S. in the 125-year record. Precipitation across the contiguous U.S. that accumulated over the June 2018–May 2019 12-month period shattered the previous record for any 12-month period with 37.68 inches, 7.73 inches above average. The previous June–May record was 35.47 inches and occurred from June 1982–May 1983. The previous all-time 12-month record was 36.20 inches and occurred from May 2018–April 2019.

• Below- to much-below-average temperatures spanned from California, into the Great Lakes and across New England. Five states, from the Southwest to the northern Plains, had a top 10 coldest May on record.
• Above- to much-above-average May temperatures prevailed from the lower Mississippi River Valley into the mid-Atlantic states as well as across the Pacific Northwest. Florida ranked warmest on record for May with North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia ranking second warmest. 

Historic flooding devastates US Midwest - Historic flooding continues to devastate large swathes of the Midwestern United States. Reports are beginning to emerge of levees breaching along three major rivers in two states. In Arkansas, the levee at Dardanelle, about 60 miles northwest of Little Rock, breached Friday night when rapid currents from the river ripped out a 40-foot section. The Arkansas Department of Emergency Management reported that crews went door to door to recommend evacuation for about 160 homes. City officials are attempting what they are referring to as a “last ditch effort” to save the south side of the town from the floodwater that is pouring through a breached levee. Mayor Jimmy Witt said Saturday that he does not believe the temporary levee being constructed would be able to stop the water. Instead, officials hope that it will buy time for residents of up to 800 homes to make preparations. “I knew there was flood warning in Fort Smith which I think was the first place to be flooded. I hear the water is over top of the roofs of houses now. For us the evacuation notice came really late Friday night, right before I was about to go to bed. The police knocked on my door to tell us the area was in serious danger and we would need to leave. We were lucky that we had the resources to pack up most of our things. A lot of people in this area will lose everything. What’s worse is that people don’t have anywhere to go.” The second reported breached levee over the weekend was on the Missouri River in the central part of the state of Missouri. There is much less information on the devastation from the second breached levee. However, authorities are reporting that a body of a drowning victim was found at a Missouri lake. The reports of failing levees mean thousands of additional homes could be in danger. Four major rivers, the Illinois, the Missouri, the Arkansas and the Mississippi all remain at risk of spilling over in the coming week. As of Sunday evening, 80 flood gauges running through 10 different states—from North Dakota to Louisiana—were indicating major flooding, the highest possible category. The scale of the damage thus far is difficult to quantify, as many official reports continue to be tallied. However, photos on social media reveal devastating scenes.

3 of 5 Great Lakes are now at record high water levels - All five Great Lakes had water levels that increased through May.  Now four of the Great Lakes sit at record high May water levels, using records dating back to 1918.  Lake Ontario had to increase a large amount this past month to climb to record levels.  Only Lake Michigan fell short of the May record by 0.72".I want to note how I'm comparing current lake levels to the record.  When looking at a record monthly water level, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers uses the average monthly water level.  In this post I am using the daily water level compared to the average monthly record level.  It took until the second half of the month, and in some cases until the last few days of the month for a lake to rise above the record level. The water levels are still on the rise. On all of the charts used here, red is this year's water level.  Blue is the 2018 water level.  The highest dashed black line is the monthly lake wide average record level.  Lake Superior rose five inches during May, and now sits one inch above the record highest May average water level. Lakes Michigan and Huron have the same water level due to the Straits of Mackinac.  Lakes Michigan and Huron both rose nines inches in May. One inch of water on these two lakes represents 800 billion gallons of water.  Lakes Michigan-Huron inched to within 0.72" of the May 1986 level, which is the current monthly average record level. Lake Erie finished May four inches above the all-time May record water level, which was set back in 1986.  Lake Erie rose six inches in May to have a daily level climb above the record May level. Lake Ontario rose 18 inches during May, putting its last daily reading in May at 3.48" above the May 2017 average record water level.  Fortunately the Lake Ontario water level is currently forecast to fall four inches in the next month. Lake St. Clair went up three inches in May, and now sits almost four inches higher than the May 1986 record.  The official forecast from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has Lake St. Clair staying at this level during June.

How catastrophic flooding could change the course of the Mississippi River - Floodwater rushing toward the rising Mississippi River has forced the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to make the decision to open the rarely used Morganza Spillway on Thursday, June 6 to divert part of the river's flow into the Atchafalaya Basin. About 24,000 acres are expected to flood as the water is funneled from the Mississippi River and into the Atchafalaya River. Residents and landowners in the path of the expected floods were alerted about the possibility last week. The Old River Control Structure, known as America's Achilles' heel to some, is a floodgate system which regulates the flow of water leaving the Mississippi River into the Atchafalaya River, in Vidalia, Louisiana.The Old River Control Structure lies on a rural stretch of the Mississippi River in Louisiana, a few miles east of the tiny town of Simmesport.The system is designed to prevent the Mississippi River from permanently altering course down the Atchafalaya River, bypassing Baton Rouge and New Orleans, but current flooding could put a strain on the system and in a worst-case scenario make it fail, causing the Mississippi River to change course down the Atchafalaya River. "If the Mississippi River changes its course during a major flood, it would be a disaster for shipping and economic impacts in New Orleans and the lower end of waterway," AccuWeather Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said. Industries and agricultural interests use the Mississippi River to transport goods upstream and downstream. Grain is hauled downstream, while raw materials are hauled upstream. It is more cost efficient to ship it by barge rather than rail or trucks because tug boats can pull a dozen or more barges up and down the river; but if the flow is too great or water is too shallow the boats can't haul as much. The US Army Corps of Engineers has the rivers and structures under control now, however some wonder how long that will last.The Mississippi River has been above flood stage in Louisiana for more than four months now at some points, which is the most consecutive days in modern history. During flooding in 1973, the Old River Control Structure almost failed when a hole developed in the structure, causing part of it to collapse. The Army Corps of Engineers dumped rock behind the dam, narrowly preventing it from failing. If the dam failed, the Mississippi River would have most likely changed course that day.

Intense Rainfall Is As Damaging to Crops As Heatwaves and Drought, and Climate Change Is Making It Worse --Intense rainfall is as damaging to the U.S. agricultural sector as heatwaves and excessive droughts, according to a new study published in the journal Global Change Biology that examined more than three decades of crop insurance, climate, soil, and corn yield data.The study, led by scientists at the University of Illinois, found that since 1981, corn yields in the U.S. Midwest were reduced by as much as 34 percent during years with excessive rainfall. Years with drought and heatwaves experienced yield loss of up to 37 percent. Intense rain events can physically damage crops, delay planting and harvesting, restrict root growth, and cause oxygen deficiency and nutrient loss. Between 1989 and 2016, excessive rainfall caused $10 billion in agricultural losses.The findings point to a need for reforms in the U.S. crop insurance industry, the researchers said. Parts of the Midwest have already experienced a 42 percent increase in the heaviest precipitation events since 1958, according to Climate Central. And climate change models predict that much of the region will experience even more frequent and intense precipitation events in the coming decades.“As rainfall becomes more extreme, crop insurance needs to evolve to better meet planting challenges faced by farmers,” Gary Schnitkey, an expert in agricultural and consumer economics at the University of Illinois and co-author of the study,said in a statement.

Flooding and tariffs causing chaos for farmers - Standing next to his mud-splattered red pickup in Central Arkansas, a tired Robert Stobaugh watches an osprey soar over a field of flooded rice. If anything can survive flooding, he says, it's rice. "But even rice doesn't like this," he says, looking at the swamp of rust-brown water in front of him. The fields around Stobaugh's truck are usually planted with soybeans, corn and rice. This year, because of weeks of heavy rain, most of them still haven't been seeded. Of the fields that have, Stobaugh says, many look like the field in front of him that has been swallowed by the surging Arkansas River. Farmers up and down the Arkansas River, the Missouri and the Mississippi are experiencing an unusual — unprecedented, some would say — combination of circumstances this year that are putting many in a difficult situation. Weeks and weeks of rain across the Midwest and the Great Plains have kept many farmers from planting crops. Surging rivers have broken levees, flooded fields and brought barge traffic to a halt on some of the nation's biggest waterways. "Even if I could get a good crop planted and cut, I don't know how I'd move it," says Matt Crabtree, a farmer in the Arkansas River Basin and president of the Farmers Cooperative. On top of that, farmers are dealing with the effects of President Trump's ongoing trade dispute with China and the prospects of a new one with Mexico. "If you just had one individual [issue], farmers would take a loss but it probably wouldn't be all that bad," says Jeremy Ross, a soybean agronomist with the University of Arkansas' Division of Agriculture. "But then you start adding all these together, and it just starts snowballing, and it just becomes this big huge problem."

The Wettest, Wildest Planting Season U.S. Farmers Can Remember -- There has never been a spring planting season like this one. Rivers topped their banks. Levees were breached. Fields filled with water and mud. And it kept raining. It was raining when U.S. farmers, a year into being squeezed out of the world’s largest soybean market by the trade war with China, were supposed to start putting down crops. It was raining when President Donald Trump risked starting a feud with Mexico, the biggest buyer of U.S. corn, by threatening to slap tariffs on its exports. “You hear words like biblical, unprecedented,” said Sherman Newlin, a corn and soybean farmer in Illinois. “That’s all true.” The storms and rains may soon lift, but the layers of uncertainty just keep adding up. Farmers who have lost access to Chinese soy buyers don’t see relief on the horizon. Other countries may chip away at corn exports. With Brazil reaping a bumper crop while U.S. farmers watched the weather, buyers in Asia were shopping for South American grain. Now there are the fears about Mexico, which bought about $5.5 billion in U.S. grain and soy shipments last year. Tariffs could also upend ratification of the new trade agreement between Mexico, the U.S., and Canada, said Beth Ford, chief executive officer of Land O’Lakes Inc. “Stress is at a tipping point for many in farm country,” she said. “The last thing they need right now is more uncertainty.” The National Grain and Feed Association agreed, saying in a statement that the duties “unquestionably will jeopardize” the accord. “It is fair to say that there has never been a geopolitical situation in modern times like the one we have right now,” Matt Campbell, a risk management consultant at INTL FCStone, said in an email. There has never been weather like this, either. The 12 months that ended with April were the wettest ever for the contiguous U.S. That spurred other firsts: Corn plantings are further behind schedule for this time of year than they have been in records dating to 1980 and analysts are predicting an unheard-of 6 million acres intended for the grain may simply go unsown this year. “Every farmer that I talk to says, ‘I’ve never seen anything like this in my life,’ and these are not 20-year-olds,” said Tom Sleight, CEO of the U.S. Grains Council, a trade group. Ripple effects are already hitting businesses reliant on grains, especially corn, the most widely grown U.S. crop. Amid the deluge, prices slumped for cattle heading to feedlots to bulk up on corn, which surged 18% in May, the most in a month since 2015. And the grain rally sent shares tumbling for Tyson Foods Inc. and Pilgrim’s Pride Corp., whose chickens feed on corn. Meanwhile, demand for fertilizer and other crop chemicals has been slammed. Hedge funds who had made massive bets that corn prices would decline drastically cut those positions this week, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed on Friday.

Corn That Won't Get Planted This Year Could Shatter All U.S. Records - For months, traders debated which crops U.S. farmers would sow this year. That discussion is now turning to how many acres may be left unplanted as relentless rainfall sweeps the Midwest.Rabobank is predicting an unprecedented number of unplanted acres of corn, the most widely grown American crop. A Bloomberg survey of 10 traders and analysts indicates growers could file insurance claims for about 6 million corn acres they haven’t been able to sow, almost double the record in 2013. Analysts predict U.S. 2019 corn acreage loss at 6 million.  Corn futures surged more than 20% to a three-year high over the past few weeks on fears farmers wouldn’t be able to get seeds in the ground ahead of crop-insurance deadlines. So-called prevented plant claims reached 3.6 million acres in 2013, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Farm Service Agency. Field conditions deteriorated over the past few weeks, indicating significant corn acreage loss was a risk, according to Gro Intelligence, a New York-based analysis firm that uses satellites among other data sources. Areas with the biggest risk of acreage loss were in central Illinois, Indiana and Ohio, and the region around the borders of South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, and Nebraska.Such insurance claims are considered a last-ditch effort for farmers, who can receive about half of the value of their crop. Analysts in the Bloomberg survey cautioned estimates could still be skewed by the weather and the government’s market facilitation program, a $16 billion aid package to mitigate the impact of trade wars. Soaring corn prices could also prompt farmers to plant the crop without insurance. “The MFP payment is dependent upon acres being planted,” said Karl Setzer, market analyst at Agrivisor in Bloomington, Illinois. Setzer estimated that 4 million to 5 million acres of corn could be left planted. However, “the recent rally in futures will also encourage planting beyond normal dates,” he said.  Sara Menker, chief executive officer of Gro Intelligence, said some areas could remain too wet to plant either corn or even soybeans. While the market is mostly focused on corn, traders “should probably care about corn and beans in particular areas, because both could be decimated, even with the window not closing for beans,” she said. The top 25 counties at risk planted 3.7 million acres of corn in 2018, according to Gro Intelligence. In March, the USDA said U.S. farmers intended to plant 92.8 million acres of corn this year. The agency won’t report prevented plant until August.

More weather woes for farmers: ‘There will be a lot of acres not planted' -  "It's like we are trying to plant on top of a lake!" wrote Nebraska farmer Ed Brummels in a recent Twitter post. The situation does not look to improve for farmers in the U.S. Corn Belt. AccuWeather is predicting the pattern of rounds of showers and thunderstorms to continue, with storms over part of the flood-stricken areas into midweek. Also, the southern half of the Corn Belt is in the path of downpours expected later this week."If you're along the Ohio River and you don't have your corn planted by Wednesday, you may not plant anything additional because you may get three inches of rain between Thursday and Saturday," said AccuWeather senior meteorologist Jason Nicholls.Corn and soybean planting remain well off pace, according to Monday's U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Crop Progress compared to the average from 2014-18.The Crop Progress indicated just 67% of corn was planted in 18 key corn-producing states. The 2014-18 average for corn planted by June 2nd is 96%, so planting is off 30.2% in comparison.Corn planting has been at an all-time low percentage for the last three reports and remains behind schedule in 17 of the 18 states monitored.Soybean planting is behind in 16 of the 18 key soybean-producing states, according to the report. So far, just 39% of soybean planting has taken place, compared to the five-year average of 79% by June 2nd, meaning soybean planting is off 50.6%.AccuWeather predicts yields below the USDA estimates for corn (9% lower) and soybeans (4% lower) for the year because of extended wet conditions in key corn- and soybean-producing states."Worst year I can remember [locally] -- we are still trying to get corn (90% done) and beans (65% done)," Nebraska's Ed Brummels wrote in an email to AccuWeather, having been in the agriculture industry since 1981. "It gets worse as you go north and east of me in Nebraska. South Dakota is a disaster ... I do remember 1983 was bad -- but not sure if it was this bad," he added. "There will be a lot of acres not planted." Many U.S. farmers face an impending decision regarding their planting plans. Historical data shows that corn yield could drop roughly 22% if corn is planted on or beyond June 4. "I think there will be very little corn planted after this week," said AccuWeather's Jason Nicholls. "I wouldn't say zero, but it's relatively minor. This is the week they have to get the corn planted but the weather just doesn't look that great."

'Horrible scenes:' More rain threatens areas swamped by record floods in central, southern US --More unwelcome rain is forecast this week in much of the central and southern U.S., falling upon areas already swamped by record-breaking floods. "Many locations from the central and southern Plains into the Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley could see 1 to 3 inches of rain in the week ahead," the Weather Channel warned, with "locally up to 5 inches of rain possible in some areas." To make matters worse, rain from a developing tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico could bring additional rainfall to the region: "Tropical moisture from the western Gulf of Mexico may begin impacting parts of south Texas on Tuesday," the National Weather Service said. The weather system, which would be named Tropical Storm Barry if its winds reach 39 mph, is now sitting in the Gulf just east of Mexico. According to the National Hurricane Center, the "system is expected to move slowly northwestward toward the northeastern coast of Mexico and could become a tropical cyclone before it moves inland in a day or two." Regardless of whether it becomes a tropical storm, moisture from the system "will spread north and eastward," the weather service said, "with heavy to excessive rainfall a concern especially across regions with current and ongoing moderate to major flooding." Heavy rainfall from the system is also likely to spread over southeastern Texas and Louisiana through Thursday, the hurricane center warned. Along the Arkansas River in Arkansas, communities were preparing for more record-breaking crests. Officials ordered mandatory evacuations for about 500 homes that sit within the levee system in Jefferson County, just southwest of Little Rock. "Just horrible scenes down in Jefferson County and Pine Bluff, Arkansas," tweeted Brian Emfinger of KATV-TV in Little Rock, on Sunday. 

Arkansas governor requests disaster declaration for flooding (AP) — Arkansas' governor has asked President Donald Trump to declare a major disaster for eight counties that have been hit by historic flooding along the Arkansas River.Gov. Asa Hutchinson asked Trump in a letter dated Thursday to declare a disaster for Conway, Crawford, Faulkner, Jefferson, Perry, Pulaski, Sebastian and Yell counties. Hutchinson wrote that preliminary assessments estimate more than $27 million is needed for temporary housing, repair, replacement housing and other needs in those counties.Hutchinson's office said an estimated $8.5 million is needed for debris removal and emergency protective measures for state and local governments, and that the state expected additional infrastructure losses to exceed $100 million. More than 857 homes suffered major damage or were destroyed in the counties. The request is for individual and public assistance.

 The Economic Cost Of Devastating Hurricanes And Other Extreme Weather Events Is Even Worse Than We Thought - June marks the official start of hurricane season. If recent history is any guide, it will prove to be another destructive year thanks to the worsening impact of climate change. But beyond more intense hurricanes and explosive wildfires, the warming climate has been blamed for causing a sharp uptick in all types of extreme weather events across the country, such as severe flooding across the U.S. this spring and extensive drought in the Southwest in recent years.Late last year, the media blared that these and other consequences of climate change could cut U.S. GDP by 10% by the end of the century – “more than double the losses of the Great Depression,” as The New York Times intoned. That figure was drawn from a single figure in the U.S. government’s Fourth National Climate Assessment. (Disclosure: I reviewed that report and was the vice chair on the third one, released in 2014.) If that sounds scary, I have good news and bad news. The good news is that that figure was drawn incorrectly from a significant misreading of the report - which actually offered a range of a loss of GDP from as low as 6% to as high as 14% by 2090. The bad news, however, is that a more meaningful assessment of the costs of climate change – using basic economic principles I teach to undergrads – is a hell of a lot scarier.

Do We Face A Global Food Disaster? - According to the latest May 20 report of the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) of the US Department of Agriculture, corn and soybean crops are well behind the planting growth levels normal this time of the planting season. They report that only 49% of all planned corn acreage in the US has been planted compared with 78% at this time a year ago. Of that only 19% has yet emerged from the ground compared to 47% in May 2018. In terms of soybeans, barely 19% of crops have yet been planted compared with 53% a year before. Rice acreage planted is down to 73% compared to 92% a year ago in the six US rice-growing states. Of course, should weather dramatically improve the final harvest numbers could improve. It is simply too early to predict. The USA is by a wide margin the world largest soybean producer with 34 percent of the world’s soybean production and 42% of world exports prior to the China trade battles. The US is also the world largest corn or maize producer, almost double China, the number two. A serious harvest failure in these two crops could significantly affect world food prices, leaving aside the unfortunate fact that almost all US soybeans and corn are GMO crops.  A major factor in the disruption of the US Midwest growing season is the fact that the past 12 months have seen the greatest precipitation levels since the US Government began keeping statistics in 1895, according to the US NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. While the Midwest USA farm-belt is waterlogged, other regions of the globe suffer drought, most notably, Australia, a major grain producer. For the first time since 2007 Australia is being forced to import wheat, mainly from Canada. Last year drought caused a 20% crop harvest reduction. The Government has issued a bulk import permit to deal with the situation. Current wheat harvest estimates are for only 16 million metric tons, half of what it was two seasons ago. Australia is in recent years the number five world wheat export nation. Adding to the shortfall of grains, The Philippines is experiencing a major drought since February 2018, which is devastating the current rice crop. Although the country is not one of the world top rice producers—India, Thailand, Vietnam and Pakistan comprise a total of some 70% all rice export—it has significant political impact on the troubled country. Another country being hit by severe drought is North Korea. There rainfall so far this year is lowest since 1982. State media reports that a “severe drought has been lingering in all parts” of the country. The average precipitation since January is only 42.3% of the average annual precipitation of 5 inches. This comes as the country experiences significant food shortages.

Global Warming Is Messing with the Jet Stream. That Means More Extreme Weather. Greenhouse gases are increasingly disrupting the jet stream, a powerful river of winds that steers weather systems in the Northern Hemisphere. That's causing more frequent summer droughts, floods and wildfires, a new study says.  The findings suggest that summers like 2018, when the jet stream drove extreme weather on an unprecedented scale across the Northern Hemisphere, will be 50 percent more frequent by the end of the century if emissions of carbon dioxide and other climate pollutants from industry, agriculture and the burning of fossil fuels continue at a high rate. In a worst-case scenario, there could be a near-tripling of such extreme jet stream events, but other factors, like aerosol emissions, are a wild card, according to the research, published today in the journal Science Advances.  The study identifies how the faster warming of the Arctic twists the jet stream into an extreme pattern that leads to persistent heat and drought extremes in some regions, with flooding in other areas. The researchers said they were surprised by how big a role other pollutants play in the jet stream's behavior, especially aerosols—microscopic solid or liquid particles from industry, agriculture, volcanoes and plants. Aerosols have a cooling effect that partially counteracts the jet stream changes caused by greenhouse gases,    "Those emissions are expected to decrease rapidly in the mid-latitude regions in the next 10 to 30 years" because of phasing out of pollution to protect people from breathing unhealthy air. In recent decades, aerosol pollution has actually been slowing down the global warming process across the Northern Hemisphere's mid-latitude industrial regions. If aerosol emissions drop rapidly, as projected, these regions would warm faster. That would change the temperature contrast between the Arctic and mid-latitudes, which would dampen the warming effect of greenhouse gases on the jet stream. By how much depends on the rate, location and timing of the reductions, and the offset would end by mid-century, when man-made aerosols are expected to be mostly gone and no longer reflecting incoming solar radiation, said Pennsylvania State University climate scientist and study lead author Michael Mann.

India heatwave temperatures pass 50 Celsius Temperatures passed 50 degrees Celsius (122 Fahrenheit) in northern India as an unrelenting heatwave triggered warnings of water shortages and heatstroke. The thermometer hit 50.6 degrees Celsius (123 Fahrenheit) in the Rajasthan desert city of Churu on Saturday, the weather department said. All of Rajasthan suffered in severe heat with several cities hitting maximum temperatures above 47 Celsius. In May 2016, Phalodi in Rajasthan recorded India's highest-ever temperature of 51 Celsius (123.8 Fahrenheit). The Indian Meteorological Department said severe heat could stay for up to a week across Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh states. Several deaths from heatstroke have already been recorded. A red alert severe heat warning has been issued in the capital New Delhi as temperatures passed 46 Celsius, and residents were advised not to go out during the hottest hours of the day. Even in the hill state of Himachal Pradesh, where many wealthy Indians go to escape the summer heat, temperatures reached 44.9 Celsius in Una. Several major cities, led by Chennai, have reported fears of water shortages as lakes and rivers start to dry up. In the western state of Maharashtra, farmers struggled to find water for thirsty animals and crops. "We have to source water tankers from nearby villages as water reserves, lakes and rivers have dried up," said Rajesh Chandrakant, a resident of Beed, one of the worst-hit districts. "Farmers only get water every three days for their livestock." "There is no drinking water available for days on end and we get one tanker every three days for the entire village," "We are scared for our lives and livelihood," he added. The Hindustan Times newspaper said many Beed residents had stopped washing and cleaning clothes due to the water shortage. More than 40 percent of India faces drought this year, experts from Gandhinagar city's Indian Institute of Technology, warned last month. The annual monsoon—which normally brings much needed rain to South Asia—is running a week behind schedule and is only expected to hit India's southern tip on June 6, the weather department said. And private forecaster Skymet has said there will be less rain than average this year.

Day Zero in India Looming For Millions - In early 2018, a three-year drought pushed Cape Town, South Africa, within weeks of experiencing “Day Zero”—the day when the city would run out of water and the taps be shut off. Fortunately, extreme water conservation efforts and the arrival of timely rains pushed “Day Zero” back indefinitely. But in India, “Day Zero” has already arrived for over 100 million people, thanks to excessive groundwater pumping, an inefficient and wasteful water supply system and years of deficient rains. “Day Zero” is expected to arrive for millions more in India by 2020, when groundwater supplies are predicted to run out for 100 million people in the northern half of India. “Large parts of India have already been living with ‘Day Zero’ for a while now,” said Mridula Ramesh in a 2018 interview with Reuters. Mridula is author of the 2018 book, The Climate Solution: India’s Climate Change Crisis and What We Can Do About It. “Much of it is because of bad management. Most cities lose between a third and a fifth of their water from pilferage or leakage through antiquated pipes, and we don’t treat and reuse wastewater enough,” she said. Over 12% of India’s population--163 million people of 1.3 billion--live under “Day Zero” conditions, with no access to clean water near their home, according to a 2018 WaterAid report. That is the most of any country in the world. With the taps dry, people are forced to dig ever-deeper wells or buy water. The number of people in India experiencing “Day Zero” is set to grow significantly by 2020, according to a startling report released in 2018 by Niti Ayog, India’s federal think tank. "Supply gaps are causing city dwellers to depend on privately extracted ground water, bringing down local water tables," the report says. "In fact, by 2020, 21 major cities, including Delhi, Bengaluru (formerly called Bangalore), and Hyderabad, are expected to reach zero groundwater levels, affecting access for 100 million people." Loss of groundwater supplies will force people in the affected cities to rely on rainwater harvesting and water piped from rivers--sources that are inadequate to meet the demand. Groundwater supplies 40% of India's water needs, including more than 60% of irrigated agriculture and 85% of domestic water use. India accounts for 12% of global groundwater use.

Canada: Alberta wildfires force evacuations, threaten air quality - More than 11,000 residents of northern Alberta towns have been temporarily evacuated over the past few weeks by the police and armed forces due to out-of-control wildfires. These include the Town of High Level, the Dene Tha’ First Nation communities of Bushe River, Meander River and Chateh, the Paddle Prairie Metis Settlement, Wabasca, and the Bigstone Cree Nation. On Tuesday an 8-hour evacuation alert for the Town of Slave Lake, much of which was destroyed by a wildfire in 2011, was downgraded to 12 hours. However, officials say that the fire near the town, which currently covers an area three time the size of Edmonton, could continue to burn for several months. In terms of square hectares, wildfires across the province consumed—just in the month of May—four times the average yearly Alberta fire season burn of 500,000 hectares. Alberta’s newly elected United Conservative Party (UCP) government and Premier Jason Kenney are adamantly insisting that there is no connection between the wildfires and climate change. Yet, the scope of the fires at this stage of the wildfire season is unprecedented. Moreover, in Alberta, neighbouring British Columbia, and internationally there has been a significant spike in the number and intensity of wildfires, which scientists attribute at least in part to hotter, dryer weather, increased winds and other changes in weather patterns.

California utility PG&E warns power may be shut off due to extreme fire risk— Pacific Gas & Electric Co., California’s largest electric utility, warned Friday afternoon it might cut power this weekend to tens of thousands of customers in its service area due to extreme fire risk. It follows the California Public Utilities Commission last week approving expanded blackouts in high fire-risk areas to reduce wildfire danger. Proactively shutting down power is part of wildfire mitigation plans filed recently by several major utilities. PG&E filed for bankruptcy protection in late January after being hit with a flood of lawsuits from devastating wildfires in Northern California in recent years. The utility tweeted Friday afternoon it was “actively monitoring weather conditions” and might cut power “within the next 18 to 36 hours in areas of the North Bay and the Sierra foothills where extreme fire risks exist.” Those are some of the same regions that have experienced catastrophic wildfires in recent years. The National Weather Service issued a red flag warning for Friday evening through Sunday afternoon in portions of Northern California, meaning there is an increased chance of wildfires due to strong winds, low humidity and warm temperatures. The state is bracing for perhaps another severe wildfire season after catastrophic 2017 and 2018 blazes that killed more than 120 people. California has a history of power lines sometimes sparking wildfires, including during high wind conditions when trees and their branches can knock down lines.

Little legal recourse for astronomers concerned about Starlink — Despite complaints by individual astronomers and astronomical organizations, legal experts say there is little they can do under existing federal law and regulations to halt the deployment of SpaceX’s Starlink satellites. SpaceX launched the first set of 60 Starlink satellites May 23. The next evening, amateur astronomers noticed them passing in a closely-bunched train, bright enough to be easily seen by the naked eye. The satellites have subsequently spread out in the sky and raised their altitude, becoming harder to see but occasionally flaring to brighter magnitudes. The initial appearance has alarmed many professional astronomers, who are concerned that the full Starlink constellation — SpaceX has licenses from the Federal Communications Commission for up to about 12,000 satellites — could interfere with groundbased astronomy. In some scenarios, hundreds of satellites could be visible in the sky at any given time, making it more likely one will cross the field of view of a telescope and disrupt an observation. “The rapid increase in the number of satellite groups poses an emerging threat to the natural nighttime environment and our heritage of dark skies,” said the International Dark-Sky Association, a group devoted primarily to addressing terrestrial light pollution threats to astronomy, in a May 29 statement. The International Astronomical Union (IAU), an organization best known for overseeing nomenclature for celestial bodies, also weighed in, noting the potential for satellite constellations such as Starlink to interfere with both optical and radio astronomy.

Space weather affects your daily life. It’s time to start paying attention. MIT Technology Review - Holed up in a cramped room of her house, Tamitha Skov gets set in front of a makeshift green screen, which has been cobbled together from two green bed sheets. She cues up a script on her computer and hits Record. Staring down the lens, she says, “We finally quieted down from multiple solar storms that brought us aurora pretty much all over the world last week, and the two regions responsible have rotated to the sun’s backside. What does that mean for you? Those stories and more in the news this week.” S Skov could be one of the thousands of on-air weather forecasters who take to the airwaves each day. But instead of sharing rainfall and temperature forecasts,  Skov—a.k.a. the Space Weather Woman—is one of the few who explain space weather. Hers is a relatively new field. She details things like solar wind, solar flares, geomagnetic storms, and coronal mass ejections—streams of charged particles and magnetic fields that originate in our star’s outer atmosphere. Space weather can create spectacular auroras. But it can also disrupt and disable satellites that provide services like GPS. It can affect electrical grids, or even threaten astronauts onboard the International Space Station with dangerous levels of radiation. A number of centers around the globe, like theSpace Weather Prediction Center in Colorado, are set up to measure and predict these storms. Using both space-based and ground tools, researchers take pictures and measurements of the sun, and warn governments and companies when dangerous space weather might be approaching. A government, for example, might then respond by shutting down satellites or electrical grids. Such reports are dense, so Skov simplifies them for non-experts—a task she’s been doing for five years, uploading the reports to her YouTube channel.  Her viewers include groups that rely heavily on satellites, or people who need to know about natural events that arise from space weather—farmers, for example, or members of the US military, aurora photographers, pilots, drone operators, meteorologists, ham radio operators. Though these small communities follow her work religiously, Skov wants to break space weather out of its niche. “My ultimate goal is to create the field of space weather broadcasting so that it’s on the nightly news, right alongside your terrestrial weather,” she says.

Study: Enhanced Seismic Activity Observed in Alaska Due To Climate Change -- With news breaking that Alaska just had its warmest March to May on record with a statewide average temperature of 32.6°F, 8.6°F above the long-term average – the previous warmest spring in Alaska was in 2016, one must ask how this performs in relation to seismicity. First we learn that according to the University of Alaska Fairbanks 2018 Year in Review, the year recorded the most earthquakes to date.  Alaska Earthquake Center: We recorded more than 55,000 earthquakes in Alaska last year. We would give you an exact figure, but we’re still counting. That’s a record, and not by a little. The previous high was 42,989 in 2017, which eclipsed 2014’s record of 40,686. However, there was nothing extraordinary about 2017 seismically. The record was mainly due to the addition of 157 new USArray stations from 2014-2016, which helped us to detect far more earthquakes in previously uninstrumented parts of the state, especially in the north and west.  Permafrost in Siberia and Alaska has started to thaw for the first time since it formed 11,000 years ago, has caused by the recent rise in temperature over the past six decades. The melting rate of glaciers has become significantly higher, causing a noticeable rise (0.19meters) in the sea level globally. Climate change can trigger catastrophes such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis and landslides due to melting glaciers and rising in sea level. The melting of glaciers driven by global warming warns us of a seismically turbulent future. When glaciers melt, the massive weight on the Earth’s crust reduces and the crust bounces back in what scientists call an “isostatic rebound“. The process can reactivate faults and lift pressure on magma chambers that feed volcanoes, hence increases seismic activity.

This animation shows all recorded earthquakes from 1901 – 2000 - You Tube

'Single Most Important Stat on the Planet': Alarm as Atmospheric CO2 Soars to 'Legit Scary' Record High - In another alarming signal that the international community is failing to take the kind of ambitious action necessary to avert global climate catastrophe, NOAA released new data Tuesday showing that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels — which environmentalist Bill McKibben described as the "single most important stat on the planet" — reached a "record high" in the month of May."The measurement is the highest seasonal peak recorded in 61 years of observations on top of Hawaii's largest volcano and the seventh consecutive year of steep global increases in concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2)," NOAA said in a statement on Tuesday. "The 2019 peak value was 3.5 PPM higher than the 411.2 PPM peak in May 2018 and marks the second-highest annual jump on record."  According to NOAA's measurements — which were taken at the Mauna Loa Atmospheric Baseline Observatory in Hawaii — carbon dioxide levels peaked at an average of 414.7 PPM in May.As The Guardian reported, "Scientists have warned for more than a decade that concentrations of more than 450 PPM risk triggering extreme weather events and temperature rises as high as 2°C, beyond which the effects of global heating are likely to become catastrophic and irreversible." Reacting to NOAA's new measurements, McKibben tweeted, "This is legit scary."

All The World’s Carbon Emissions In One Chart -  Two degrees Celsius may not seem like much, but on our planet, it could be the difference between thriving life and a disastrous climate.Over two centuries of burning fossil fuels have added up, and global decision-makers and business leaders are focusing in on carbon emissions as a key issue. This week’s chart uses the most recent data from Global Carbon Atlas to demonstrate where most of the world’s CO₂ emissions come from, sorted by country. In terms of absolute emissions, the heavy hitters are immediately obvious. Large economies such as China, the United States, and India alone account for almost half the world’s emissions. Zoom out a little further, and it’s even clearer that just a handful of countries are responsible for the majority of emissions.Of course, absolute emissions don’t tell the full story. The world is home to over 7.5 billion people, but they aren’t distributed evenly across the globe. How do these carbon emissions shake out on a per capita basis?Here are the 20 countries with the highest emissions per capita:

Climate change doomsday report predicts end of human civilization -- In the past week, the world has experienced chaotic weather phenomena, from deathly Indian heatwaves to snow inundating parts of Queensland. Now, the Breakthrough National Centre for Climate Change has issued a report predicting the end of human civilisation as we know it. The report, terrifyingly entitled Existential climate-related security risk, glimpses 30 years into the future to the year 2050 — and the results are grim. Authors David Spratt, a researcher into climate change, and Ian Dunlop, former chairman of the Australian Coal Association and chair of the Australian Greenhouse Office Experts Group on Emissions Trading, propose a scenario in which global emissions and climate threats are ignored, and the trajectory of environmental collapse goes unchecked.Their conclusions spell out a dire warning.  Using climate data, Spratt and Dunlop claim the Earth can expect at least a 3C rise in temperatures, which would trigger global decay and destruction of crucial ecosystems, including the Arctic, Amazon rainforests and coral reefs."More than a billion people may need to be relocated, and in high-end scenarios, the scale of destruction is beyond our capacity to model, with a high likelihood of human civilisation coming to an end," Spratt and Dunlop warn.By 2050, total ecological collapse would give way to massive social consequences ranging from "increased religious fervour to outright chaos".The report suggests the catastrophic chain of environmental disasters will climax with widespread pandemics, forced migration from inhabitable locations and a likely nuclear war due to skirmishing for limited resources."Planetary and human systems (reach) a 'point of no return' by mid-century in which the prospect of a largely uninhabitable Earth leads to the breakdown of nations and the international order," the report predicts. Spratt and Dunlop sum up our disastrous fate with a harrowing thought: "Climate change now represents a near-to-mid-term existential threat to human civilisation."

'This Is an Emergency. We Need the Democrats to Act Like It': Outrage as DNC Says It Won't Host a 2020 Debate on Climate Crisis -- Sparking a torrent of backlash from Democratic White House contenders, environmental organizations, and youth climate leaders, the Democratic National Committee announced Wednesday that it will not host aclimate-specific presidential primary debate and will punish candidates who attend a debate hosted by any other organization. News of the DNC's decision was made public by 2020 presidential candidate and Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, who was the first Democratic contender to call for a debate focused solely on the climate crisis."Today, my team received a call from the Democratic National Committee letting us know that they will not host a climate debate," Inslee said in a statement. "Further, they explained that if we participated in anyone else's climate debate, we will not be invited to future debates. This is deeply disappointing."Inslee said he will pressure the DNC leadership to change its mind, arguing that the climate emergency "merits a full discussion of our plans" rather than the "short exchange of talking points" typical of past presidential debates."The DNC is silencing the voices of Democratic activists, many of our progressive partner organizations, and nearly half of the Democratic presidential field, who want to debate the existential crisis of our time," Inslee said. "The next president must make defeating this crisis the top priority of the nation. And I will continue to do everything I humanly can to ensure the climate crisis is at the top of the national agenda."

$1 Trillion: The Cost Of Climate Change For Corporations - The United States is poised to take a powerful economic hit with the real cost of a disturbed climate beginning to become abundantly clear. Rising sea levels, wildfires, heat waves and extreme weather events are set to cost trillions of dollars over the next couple of decades in crumbling infrastructure, reduced crop yields, health problems and lost labor.According to Bruno Sarda, president of the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) North America, climate change is no longer the distant threat it used to be, but a phenomenon that’s adversely impacting whole economies in the here and now.Sarda says that climate change is very much underpriced risk in financial disclosures with boardrooms underestimating its full impact. According to a recent CDP report, companies across the globe expect climate change to cost them a staggering $1 trillion dollars over the next five years. An even more alarming fact: U.S. corporate heads appear to be sleeping behind the wheel more than most, with corporate America more ill-prepared for such an eventuality than others. According to the CDP report, companies in the U.S. are lagging behind their overseas peers with only 65 percent integrating climate risk into their business strategies compared to the global average of 72 percent.

 Ocasio-Cortez: $10 trillion needed for effective climate plan - Freshman Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) said Wednesday that any plan to sufficiently address the climate crisis will need to cost at least $10 trillion.“I think we really need to get to $10 trillion to have a shot,” the progressive firebrand said in response to a question from The Hill in the Capitol.“I know it’s a ton," she added. "I don’t think anyone wants to spend that amount of money, it’s not a fun number to say, I’m not excited to say we need to spend $10 trillion on climate, but ... it’s just the fact of the scenario.”Ocasio-Cortez, who helped popularize a set of principles known as the Green New Deal, said that of all the climate plans from the Democratic presidential candidates, she was most supportive of proposals from Gov.Jay Inslee (Wash.), which surpassed $5 trillion, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (Mass.), which included a $2 trillion green manufacturing element.She said she was also encouraged that 2020 Democratic front-runner Joe Biden had put out a $5 trillion climate plan, though she criticized the former vice president's proposal for having less-ambitious goals and timelines than others.All the plans in question could go further, however, she added.“I think the entire field of climate plans still needs to be pushed,” she said. “I think it just needs to be pushed in terms of the scientific scale, that is scientifically supported in what we need to solve this problem.”Ocasio-Cortez, whose backing would be a prize for 2020 Democrats seeking the progressive vote, acknowledged that her climate plan price tag would be derided as unrealistic, but argued that it was in line with the scale of the threat. “It’s not popular, it’s not politically popular. People are going to call it unrealistic, and I just don’t think people understand how bad the problem is,” she said.

 Every Senate Dem signs on to Paris bill — except Manchin -- Every member of the Senate Democratic caucus is supporting a bill to keep the U.S. in the Paris climate agreement — except Energy and Natural Resources ranking member Joe Manchin. The West Virginia Democrat was the only member of his caucus not to immediately sign on as a co-sponsor on S. 1743, the "International Climate Accountability Act," which would prohibit the Trump administration from using funds to withdraw from the Paris climate accord and require it to come up with a plan to meet emissions targets. Democrats, led by Sen. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, formally introduced the bill yesterday as a companion to H.R. 9, the first major climate bill to pass the House in a decade. Like its House counterpart, the Senate bill is purely messaging and has virtually no chance of becoming law as stand-alone legislation. It would force President Trump to renege on his own policy after he announced two years ago that the U.S. would withdraw from the agreement in November 2020, the earliest possible date. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has already pledged to block the measure, which passed the House with the support of every Democrat — and three Republicans — last month (Greenwire, May 2). But Senate Democrats are hoping it helps rally support for the Paris Agreement within their caucus and frames McConnell as the biggest barrier to climate action. "When America speaks, the world listens," Senate Environment and Public Works Committee ranking member Tom Carper (D-Del.) said in a statement. "We cannot allow an administration controlled by climate science deniers to speak for the American people, the vast majority of whom want our country to act boldly to address climate change." Right on cue, a variety of green groups and Democratic Party supporters began sending out statements of support for the bill this afternoon. Both the Natural Resources Defense Council and League of Conservation Voters drew a direct comparison between the bill's 46 Democratic sponsors and McConnell's move to block climate-related legislation. "Those who oppose this crucial climate action — including Sen. McConnell and his big polluter backers — are condemning our kids, communities and country to runaway climate costs and danger we know we can avoid," NRDC President Rhea Suh said in a statement. Manchin's absence is notable, if not surprising. The coal-state senator has softened his tone on energy and climate issues since taking the top Democratic spot on the Energy and Natural Resources Committee, but he supported Trump's decision to pull out of Paris.

Accused of Plagiarism, Biden Campaign Admits Lifting 'Carbon Capture' Section of Climate Plan From Fossil Fuel-Backed Group - Almost immediately after releasing a climate plan Tuesday that green groups slammed as woefully inadequatein part due to its embrace of industry-backed proposals such as "carbon capture," presumptive 2020 Democratic frontrunner Joe Biden faced accusations of plagiarizing language from a number of sources, including a coalition consisting of major fossil fuel companies. Josh Nelson, vice president of the progressive organization CREDO Mobile, was the first to highlight possible instances of plagiarism in Biden's plan, noting on Twitter that the section "about carbon capture and sequestration includes language that is remarkably similar to items published previously by the Blue Green Alliance and the Carbon Capture Coalition" — two organizations backed by major fossil fuel companies and labor unions. "Membership of the Carbon Capture Coalition, where some of Biden's language seems to have originated, includes Shell, Peabody Energy, Arch Coal, and Cloud Peak Energy," wrote Nelson, who tweeted side-by-side screenshots of language from the Carbon Capture Coalition and Biden's plan. In a paragraph about carbon capture, the former vice president's plan — which has since been updated with citations — read: "Biden's goal is to make CCUS a widely available, cost-effective, and rapidly scalable solution to reduce carbon emissions to meet mid-century climate goals."The line from Biden's plan, as Business Insider reported, was "almost identical to the 'our work' section of the website for the Carbon Capture Coalition's Center for Climate and Energy Solutions.""Its goal is to make carbon capture, use, and storage (CCUS) a widely available, cost-effective, and rapidly scalable solution to reduce carbon emissions to meet mid-century climate goals," reads the Carbon Capture Coalition's website.In response to the plagiarism accusations — which spread rapidly on social media and were picked up by a number of media outlets — Biden's presidential campaign said"citations were inadvertently left out of the final version of the 22-page document." "As soon as we were made aware of it, we updated to include the proper citations," the campaign said in a statement.

 Philippines Passes Law Requiring Students to Plant 10 Trees Before Graduation-  The Filipino congress passed a new law requiring every student to plant 10 trees before they are allowed to graduate from elementary school, high school or college. House Bill 8728, or the "Graduation Legacy for the Environment Act," is expected to pass the senate for final approval."With over 12 million students graduating from elementary and nearly five million students graduating from high school and almost 500,000 graduating from college each year, this initiative, if properly implemented, will ensure that at least 175 million new trees would be planted each year. In the course of one generation, no less than 525 billion can be planted under this initiative," Gary Alejano, one of the bill's principal author's, explained in the bill's explanatory note, as reported by CNN Philippines. "Even with a survival rate of only 10 percent, this would mean an additional 525 million trees would be available for the youth to enjoy, when they assume the mantle of leadership in the future."To implement the bill, several government agencies will collaborate to establish nurseries, produce and distribute seedlings and provide technical support. The bill also requires an emphasis on indigenous species over imported species, which is key to preserving biodiversity. Indigenous trees also fit the bill's requirement to plant trees appropriate to the climate and topography, according to CNN Philippines. Lest kids plant trees randomly, the bill also lays out where trees are to be planted, emphasizing government-owned land from rainforests to oceanside mangroves to city streets.

Ninth Circuit Judges Appear Skeptical of Role in Kids Climate Suit vs. U.S. Government - A three-judge panel of the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals on Tuesday appeared skeptical of the courts’ role in dealing with climate change in the landmark constitutional climate case brought by 21 young people against the U.S. government. But the kids’ attorneys argued in a pivotal hearing that they are only asking the court to apply rights already laid out in the Fifth Amendment.The hearing, held in Portland, Ore., will decide whether the case, Juliana v. United States, continues on toward trial. The suit has been vehemently opposed by the Justice Department since it was filed in 2015, and this hearing could grant the government an extraordinary measure by granting an appeal before the trial even began.Judges Mary H. Murguia and Andrew D. Hurwitz of the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, and Josephine L. Staton of District Court for the Central District of California presided over the hearing and are expected to issue their ruling in the next few months. Hurwitz summed up the issues the court is wrestling with, primarily whether the courts should intervene in a subject ordinarily left to the executive and legislative branches. “I’m sympathetic to the problems you point out,” he said. “But you shouldn’t say this is just an ordinary suit. … You’re asking us to do a lot of new stuff, aren’t you?”  Julia Olson, lead attorney for the young plaintiffs, disagreed. “It would be the first time that it would have been done, your Honor, as to this factual context where the government admits the monumental threat to people and to lives and that their acts in promoting fossil fuels and allowing for the extraction and all the affirmative things they do cause the emissions that are a substantial cause of climate change,” Olson said. Hurwitz pushed back on Olson’s assertion, saying it appeared as if the plaintiffs were asking the court to break new ground by allowing the case to continue.“The issue here is whether this branch of government, embodied by the three of us today, has the ability to issue the relief that your clients seek,” said Hurwitz to Olson during her arguments, adding that he doesn’t doubt that Congress and the president could give the plaintiffs the relief they seek.“I don’t think Congress and the president ever will,” said Olson in response.

 Trump Administration Lifts Ethanol-Fuel Ban That Was Meant to Cut Smog - — The Trump administration said Friday that it has lifted a summertime ban on the use of E15, a gasoline blend made of 15 percent ethanol. The move is designed to help corn and soybean farmers harmed by President Trump’s decision to impose tariffs. Ethanol, made from corn and other crops, has been mixed into some types of gasoline for years as a way to reduce reliance on oil, among other things. However, burning ethanol-blended fuel in the summertime heat has a side effect of increasing smog — and for that reason the lifting of the ban raised objections from environmentalists. Oil companies also criticized the ending of the summertime ban because a wider use of ethanol will cut into their sales of gasoline. Nevertheless, the change has the potential to reap political benefits for Mr. Trump as he gives the agriculture industry a policy change it has long sought. The formal lifting of the ban follows through on a promise Mr. Trump made to farmers on a trip to Iowa last fall, as he sought to shore up support for Republicans in the Midwest. The ban has been in place since 2011 and Mr. Trump has criticized it as “ridiculous.” “I appreciate President Trump’s steadfast support for our patriotic farmers and for his commitment to expand the sale of E15 and unleash the full potential of American innovation and ingenuity as we continue to demonstrate our rightful place as the world’s leader in agricultural and energy production,” the Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue said in a statement.

17 of World’s Largest Car Makers Ask Trump for Compromise on Plan to Weaken Fuel Efficiency Standards --Seventeen of the world's largest automakers want President Donald Trump to find a compromise withCalifornia on his plan to weaken Obama-era tailpipe emissions standards, The New York Times reported. In a letter sent to Trump on Thursday, car companies including Ford, General Motors, Toyota and BMW asked the administration to return to the negotiating table so as to avoid "an extended period of litigation and instability." They worried the current plans would hurt their profits. Automakers had initially sought a weakening of the standards put in place by former President Barack Obama to address the climate crisis. The standards would have set a fuel efficiency target of 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025. But the Trump administration draft plan would freeze mileage standards at around 37 miles per gallon and revoke California's waiver to set its own standards under the Clean Air Act, all but guaranteeing that California and the 13 other states that have adopted its tougher standards would sue. Car makers are then worried about having to design cars for two separate U.S. markets."What works best for consumers, communities, and the millions of U.S. employees that work in the auto industry is one national standard that is practical, achievable, and consistent across the 50 states," the companies wrote, according to the Detroit Free Press. "In addition, our customers expect continuous improvements in safety, efficiency, and capability. For these reasons, we support a unified standard that both achieves year-over-year improvements in fuel economy and facilitates the adoption of vehicles with alternative powertrains."

 Energy secretary: US aims to making fossil fuels cleaner (AP) — The Trump administration is committed to making fossil fuels cleaner rather than imposing “draconian” regulations on coal and oil, U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry said Thursday at an energy conference in Salt Lake City.Perry previously said the administration wants to spend a half-billion dollars next year on fossil fuel research and development as demand plummets for coal and surges for natural gas.“Instead of punishing fuels that produce emissions through regulation, we’re seeking to reduce those emissions by innovation,” Perry said at the conference.Fossil fuel emissions have been cited by scientists as a major source of global warming. United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres recently said the world must change how it fuels factories, vehicles and homes to limit future global warming.Perry said the Trump administration has proven it can make energy cleaner, but he provided no details involving coal and other fossil fuels other than the closing of old, inefficient coal-burning power plants and exporting increasing volumes of natural gas, an alternative to coal.Department of Energy spokesman Dirk Vande Beek didn’t immediately return an email and voicemail seeking more details about Perry’s claim. Perry pointed to an overall drop in emissions as proof of progress. Greenhouse gas emissions dropped 13 percent from 2005-2017, according to the most recent report from the Environmental Protection Agency.Lindsay Beebe of the Sierra Club in Utah said trying to make fossil fuels cleaner is misspent energy.“I don’t know that it’s possible right now, but what is ready right now are renewables. Wind, solar and geothermal are commercially viable and at scale,” Beebe said.

Michael Bloomberg Promises $500 Million to Help End Coal - The New York Times — Michael R. Bloomberg, the former mayor of New York City, said on Friday he would donate $500 million to a new campaign to close every coal-fired power plant in the United States and halt the growth of natural gas. The new campaign, called Beyond Carbon, is designed to help eliminate coal by focusing on state and local governments. The effort will bypass Washington, where Mr. Bloomberg has said national action appears unlikely because of a divided Congress and apresident who denies the established science of climate change. “We’re in a race against time with climate change, and yet there is virtually no hope of bold federal action on this issue for at least another two years,” Mr. Bloomberg said in a statement before the announcement, which he made in a commencement address at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “Mother Nature is not waiting on our political calendar, and neither can we.” President Trump has made reviving what he has called “clean, beautiful coal” a cornerstone of his energy agenda. A spokesman for Mr. Bloomberg said most of the money would be spent over the next three years, though the time frame could be extended. It will fund lobbying efforts by environmental groups — in state legislatures, City Councils and public utility commissions — that aim to close coal plants and replace them with wind, solar and other renewable power. Part of the cash also will go toward efforts to elect local lawmakers who prioritize clean energy. The campaign will be based on the need to avoid the most dangerous effects of climate change, but will also emphasize the economic benefits of switching to clean energy.  More than 280 coal plants, about 40 percent of the United States coal fleet, have either closed or announced plans to close since 2010. This new campaign aims to shut down the remaining 241 plants in the country by 2030. The plan comes as global warming is taking a more prominent role inthe 2020 Democratic presidential race. Like the Green New Dealclimate proposal, Mr. Bloomberg’s plan is expected to increase the pressure on politicians who say they prioritize climate change to stake out more specific policy positions.

India Is Now Investing More in Solar Than Coal -- India needs power.. And now, for the first time, India's 2018 investment in solar power outpaced coal, according to a report by theInternational Energy Agency.  India is home to the world's second largest population and uses more and more power as it grows in size and wealth. It's also the third largest national contributor to greenhouse gasses, after China and the U.S. So what happens in India matters on a global scale, making its recent investments in renewable energy noteworthy.According to the report, India's switch to renewables is due to a combination of policy and the rapidly decreasing costs of bringing solar power online, the Independent reports."There has been a very big step change in terms of the shift in investments in India in just the past three years," Michael Waldron, an author of the report, told Inside Climate News. "But, there are a number of risks around whether this shift can be continued and be sustained over time."It's not all rosy in India's future. Coal is still king and India's investment in it remains strong. In fact, 74 percent of the country's energy use last year came from coal-fired plants and its spending on coal does continue to increase, according to The Independent.  How the future will look remains murky. Oil giant BP predicts that demand for coal will nearly double over the next 20 years. In contrast, the International Energy Agency reports that coal fired energy will decline from 74 percent to 57 percent of the country's energy use. The IEA also says that more aggressive policies could reduce coal power to as little as 7 percent of India's energy source by 2040, according to Inside Climate News.   India's aggressive investments in renewables have it well positioned to meet and possibly exceed its Paris climate agreement commitments to bring 175 gigawatts of renewable energy online by 2022, The Independent Reports.

'Gas Is a Loser and It's Time to Move On': Report Debunks Myth That Natural Gas Can Help Fight Climate Crisis - "The mythology around gas being a 'cleaner' fossil fuel that can support the transition to clean energy goes back at least three decades," reads the new Oil Change International (OCI) report, "Oil and gas corporations have championed and invested in this myth as a way to delay the transition away from fossil fuels," OCI's report states.  OCI's analysis (pdf) notes that despite the overwhelming evidence against the view that natural gas can serve as a clean and temporary replacement for coal, "a number of politicians and decision-makers continue to repeat the myth of gas as a climate solution." The evidence of the deeply harmful consequences of reliance on natural gas, according to OCI, goes far beyond the leakage of methane, a greenhouse gas that is considered to be 87 times more potent than carbon dioxide.  OCI's report—titled "Burning the 'Gas Bridge' Myth: Why Gas is Not Clean, Cheap, or Necessary" (pdf)—details five reasons why natural gas cannot be part of any solution that aims to confront the climate crisis with the ambition that the latest science says is necessary to avert catastrophic warming:

1. Gas Breaks the Carbon Budget: The economically recoverable oil, gas, and coal in the world's currently producing and under-construction extraction projects would take the world far beyond safe climate limits. Further development of untapped gas reserves, including new shale wells, is inconsistent with the climate goals in the Paris Agreement. Even if global coal use were phased out overnight, already-developed reserves of oil and gas would push the world above 1.5°C of warming. There's simply no room for more gas.
2. Coal-to-Gas Switching Doesn't Cut It: Climate goals require the energy sector to be decarbonized by mid-century. This means that both coal and gas must be phased out. Replacing coal plants with new gas plants will not cut emissions by nearly enough, even if methane leakage is kept to a minimum. Current plans for gas production growth drastically overshoot climate safe models and are a bridge to climate disaster.
3. Low-Cost Renewables Can Displace Coal and Gas: The dramatic and ongoing cost declines for wind and solar disrupt the business model for gas in the power sector. Wind and solar are already cheaper to build and operate than coal and gas in most markets. Cost is clearly not a prohibitive factor to adding renewable generation capacity, whether to replace fossil fuel capacity or to meet rising demand.
4. Gas Is Not Essential for Grid Reliability: Wind and solar require balancing, but gas is not the only, nor the best, resource available for doing so. Battery storage is fast becoming competitive with gas plants designed for this purpose (known as "peakers"). Wind and solar plants that are coupled with battery storage are also becoming a competitive "dispatchable" source of energy. Managing high levels of wind and solar on the grid requires optimizing a wide range of technologies and solutions, including battery storage, demand response, and transmission. There is no reason to favor gas as the primary solution.
5. New Gas Infrastructure Locks In Emissions: Multibillion-dollar gas infrastructure built today is designed to operate for decades to come. Given the barriers to closing down infrastructure ahead of its expected economic lifespan, it is critical to stop building new infrastructure, the full lifetime emissions of which will not fit within Paris-aligned carbon budgets.

 Study: Heavy metals in N Carolina lake bottom extensive(AP) — A Duke University scientist says a toxic stew of coal ash has spilled repeatedly and apparently unnoticed from storage pits at a Wilmington power plant into an adjoining lake, and flooding from Hurricane Florence was only the latest example. Duke geochemistry and water quality professor Avner Vengosh says in the research published last week that the lead, cobalt and other heavy metals detected in the lake’s sediment equal or exceed the pollution from the country’s worst coal-ash spill in Kingston, Tennessee, in 2008. Vengosh’s peer-reviewed findings highlight the risk of thousands of tons of coal ash stored near waterways across the hurricane-threatened Southeastern United States. The country’s largest electricity company owns the lake and the ash. Duke energy spokesman Bill Norton says the lake was designed as a buffer between storage basins and the nearby Cape Fear River. State environmental officials report no significant pollution in the river since Florence.

 Opinion split over 'new' coal ash chemical at Belews Creek -  Environmental activists and Duke Energy are at odds again over coal ash issues at Belews Creek Steam Station and several other coal-fired power plants in North Carolina. At Belews Creek northwest of Greensboro in Stokes County, recent groundwater testing found the potentially harmful metal mercury above governmental safety levels in one test well. The utility already had reported problem levels of six other pollutants linked to coal ash in previous groundwater tests at Belews Creek. The utility also recently reported additional, potentially harmful chemicals in groundwater testing near coal ash storage basins at plants near Roxboro, Lumberton and Lake Norman in Catawba County. “Duke Energy’s coal ash is injecting a witches brew of toxic pollutants into North Carolina’s waters,” said Frank Holleman of the Southern Environmental Law Center in Chapel Hill that publicized the overages. “And now Duke Energy admits that the nasty flow is even worse than previously reported.” But Duke Energy spokesman Bill Norton countered that the findings were insignificant in groundwater that is confined to company property with zero likelihood of threatening nearby drinking water or anybody’s health. The uproar is part of “an organized effort by critics using fear to advance an extreme agenda that would do more harm than good,” Norton said. “This is highly localized water right next to our ash basins,” Norton said of the findings that drew SELC’s condemnation. “At the sites singled out by SELC, this groundwater moves only a few feet per year.

Coal miners' union urges silica regulation to curb black lung -  (Reuters) - The head of the national coal miners’ union on Thursday urged the Trump administration to impose regulation on silica dust in mines, which researchers believe is responsible for a resurgence of black lung disease in central Appalachia. FILE PHOTO: Flames and steam rise from the Suncoke Jewell cokemaking plant, which burns coal to make coke, in Oakwood, Virginia, U.S., May 19, 2018. Picture taken May 19, 2018. REUTERS/Brian Snyder The demand from United Mineworkers of America president Cecil Roberts comes as President Donald Trump tries to pump up U.S. coal production, mainly by rolling back regulations he deems burdensome to the industry. “We are seeing the most serious levels of black lung, mainly caused by silica and there are no silica standards out there,” Roberts told Reuters on the sidelines of a black lung disease conference in West Virginia. “We desperately need more.” Government research and reports from black lung disease clinics in West Virginia, Virginia and Kentucky show the incidence of black lung rebounding despite improved safety measures adopted decades ago that had almost eradicated the progressive respiratory disease.

Coal Processing Chemical May Harm Fetuses, Federal Study Finds - The coal processing chemical that spilled into West Virginia’s Elk River in 2014, cutting off drinking water for thousands of local residents, may harm the development of fetuses, according to a newly released federal study on test animals. Rat pups, which scientists use as surrogates for people, were born deformed when their mothers were exposed to high doses of 4-methylcyclohexanemethanol (MCHM), the National Toxicology Program (NTP) said in a study released June 3.Time-mated female rats (n=10/dose level) were administered 0, 150, 300, 600, or 900 mg MCHM/kg body weight per day in corn oil by gavage (2 mL/kg) from GD 6 to GD 20. Control females (0 mg/kg) received corn oil vehicle. All dams in the 900 mg/kg group were euthanized on GD 8 due to clinical observations indicating overt toxicity (ataxia, cold to touch, clear ocular discharge, excessive salivation, lethargy/hypoactivity, and/or piloerection); three dams from the 600 mg/kg group displayed similar clinical observations and were removed from study. Body weight gain from GD 6 to 21 in the 600 mg/kg group was 44% lower than that of the vehicle control and was associated with a 13% reduction in feed consumption during the same interval. No signs of maternal toxicity were observed in the 150 or 300 mg/kg dose groups. Dams administered 600 mg/kg displayed higher post-implantation loss (53%) and lower gravid uterine weight. MCHM exposure did not affect the number of live fetuses per litter or fetal sex ratio. However, fetal weights were 12% and 39% lower in the 300 and 600 mg/kg exposure groups, respectively. There were no external malformations or variations attributed to MCHM exposure.

West Virginia coal industry data shows excessive pollution: green groups -(Reuters) - Several West Virginia coal mines, including some owned by the governor’s family, have released many times the allowable amounts of pollutants into nearby waterways in recent years without being penalized by regulators, according to environmental groups citing state data. The Ohio Valley Environmental Coalition, Sierra Club and others on Tuesday sent “notice of intent to sue” letters to nine companies operating about 15 coal facilities in the state, including Bluestone Resources, owned by the family of Governor Jim Justice, and coal magnate Robert Murray’s Murray Energy, for what they said were “egregious violations” of federal laws. The letters cited routine reports that the mines had submitted to state regulators dating back to 2016 showing frequent exceedances of toxic releases into nearby waterways. Murray’s data from its Harrison County coal mine, for example, showed it has discharged as much as 220 times the allowable 30-day average limit of aluminum into the Ohio and West Fork rivers in September 2018. Bluestone’s Red Fox mine discharged twice as much selenium and 10 times as much aluminum as it is permitted into the Tug Fork River in February 2019 and September 2018, according to the reports cited in the letters, which were reviewed by Reuters. Reuters verified that the data cited in the letters had been submitted by the companies to state regulators, and were posted in a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency database. The environmental groups said the companies had violated the federal Clean Water Act (CWA) and the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act (SMCRA) and that there was no evidence that state or federal authorities had penalized them or sought to bring the facilities back into compliance.

W.Va. Environmental Groups Take Steps to Sue Coal, Chloride Facilities for Pollution -  West Virginia Public Broadcasting - The Sierra Club and a coalition of West Virginia-based environmental groups took the first step Tuesday toward taking legal action against companies operating 15 coal facilities and one chloride plant in West Virginia and Pennsylvania for violating the Clean Water Act and the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act.The nine companies, which include Murray Energy, Bluestone Coal and Consol, operate coal mines, coal preparation and processing facilities, a power plant and a chloride plant across West Virginia.Environmental groups said they sent “notice of intent to sue” letters with the companies, West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection and United States Environmental Protection Agency. The notices allege self-reported data, by the facilities to state and federal regulators, show an ongoing pattern of pollution discharges that violate federal permits. According to the letters by environmental groups, in some cases these levels are hundreds of times above what is legally allowed.For example, the groups allege one facility, the Harrison County Coal Mine, operated by Murray Energy, is discharging 220 times its permitted limit of aluminum.A spokesperson for Murray Energy said as of Tuesday afternoon it had not yet received the letter and does not comment on threatened or pending litigation.The "notice of intent" letters give operators 60-days notice. Environmental groups said if they fix the problems, or if state or federal environmental regulators take action, they would not file in court. If not, the advocacy groups said they will pursue legal action in federal court. Representatives for the other companies named in the letters, which include Southern Land, LLC, Lexington Coal Co, American Bituminous Power Partners, Mepco Inc., Black Castle Mining Company and Eagle Natrium LLC, did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

 Illinois coal ash a statewide groundwater threat - No one region of Illinois is safe from contamination of groundwater from coal ash.It is a statewide crisis, environmentalists say.“At every ash dump in Illinois where groundwater has been tested, toxic coal ash pollutants are leaking into groundwater,” said Colleen Smith, legislative director for the Illinois Environmental Council. “However, contamination levels across the state are disproportional – a few communities are at much higher risk than others.”The problem prompted the Illinois legislature on May 27 to pass the Coal Ash Pollution Prevention Act requiring and regulating the cleanup of coal ash. It now heads to the governor’s desk to be signed into law. The Environmental Integrity Project says Illinois has 16 sites where coal ash has contaminated the groundwater. Across the sites, 14 different coal ash contaminants are in the groundwater. Coal ash cleanup is an important challenge because drinking contaminated groundwater can have serious health effects.  Illinois has 22 sites where coal ash pollutants have leached into groundwater, according to a 2018 report by Earth Justice, the Environmental Integrity Project, Prairie Rivers Network and the Sierra Club. The report reveals that toxic pollutants at these sites include arsenic, cobalt and lithium which can cause cancer, heart disease, reproductive failure and stroke and can inflict lasting brain damage on children, according to the report.  Prairie Rivers Network mapped all 24 major power plants with coal ash impoundments in Illinois. The map includes the number of lined or unlined ponds and impoundments at each site, reported volume of ash, contaminants and waters the pollution is discharged into. Waukegan Station, like almost all of the other sites, has ponds that are unlined, meaning that little or nothing is stopping the toxic pollution in those ash ponds from leaking into groundwater.

EIA tool compares individual power plants’ generation, cooling water use, and emissions --   EIA’s electric power sector surveys collect plant-level information on several attributes of U.S. power plants, including cooling water use and emissions data. EIA has made enhancements to the Electricity Data Browser to simplify access to information about plant-level cooling water use and estimates of emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and carbon dioxide (CO2). These data are now available on the beta version of the Electricity Data Browser. The browser now includes annual plant-level CO2, SO2, and NOx emissions estimates for power plants that burn combustible fuels. For example, Florida Power and Light’s West County Energy Center, located near Juno Beach, Florida, is one of the largest fossil-fueled generators of electricity in the United States. In 2017, the West County Energy Center generated 20.5 million megawatthours (MWh) of electricity, as well as 7.7 million tons of CO2, 37 tons of SO2, and 485 tons of NOx. EIA collects cooling water data for plants with a combustible-fueled thermoelectric generating capacity of 100 megawatts (MW) or more. Thermoelectric power plants include units fueled by natural gas, coal, nuclear, and oil, as well as renewable sources, such as biomass and solar thermal plants, which also require cooling. In 2017, 63% of all U.S. electricity generation was produced by thermoelectric units (excluding geothermal units), 54% of which had a capacity of 100 MW or more. The updated browser provides water withdrawal, discharge, consumption, and water-use intensity information for all cooling systems at each reporting plant. For example, the Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant near Athens, Alabama, one of the largest nuclear power plants in the United States, generated 27.8 million MWh of electricity in 2017 and withdrew more than one million gallons of water from the nearby Tennessee River to use in its cooling system. According to the Tennessee Valley Authority, the federal public power corporation that operates the Browns Ferry plant, about 99% of the water withdrawn from the river is discharged back into it. The updated browser also allows users to generate side-by-side comparisons of the location, generation, energy consumption, and water usage of different plants, or of the water usage by the cooling systems within a plant. Monthly, quarterly, and annual data are available for 2014 through 2017; EIA expects to publish preliminary 2018 data in June 2019.

Coal emissions can concentrate radioactivity - Particles left behind when coal burns can be just as radioactive as nuclear waste. Coal byproducts from Muskingum River Power Plant, a now-defunct coal power plant in Ohio, might have contained forms of these radioactive particles. It is one of 10 coal plants in Ohio to contribute pollutants above safe levels to groundwater, according to the Environmental Integrity Project. But what is unique about this plant is the type of pollutants that came from it.When coal burns at power plants, it produces residual waste, or coal ash, including a fine silicon powder called fly ash. A 2015 Duke University-led study found radioactive contaminants, such as byproducts of uranium and thorium, can be highly concentrated in this ash.Radioactive particles were detected in groundwater surrounding Muskingum River Power Plant in Beverly, Ohio. The American Electric Power plant closed in May 2015 after a plan to switch plant operations to natural gas fell through. Rising costs and the passing of environmental regulations were listed as the cause of the closure. A 2019 report from the Environmental Integrity Project found radium, a radioactive element found in coal, had contaminated groundwater above safe levels at four of the ten monitored coal plants in Ohio. A total of 48 sites across the country had radium-contaminated groundwater. According to the EPA’s groundwater and drinking water regulations, long-term exposure to radium, gross alpha particles and gross beta particles can cause cancer.The facility is on the Environmental Protection Agency’s list of potential damage cases. In the duration of its operation, it threatened groundwater and surface water at levels that could harm human health. American Electric Power sold the plant to Commercial Liability Partners in 2015. Responsibility for the plant and its cleanup lies with the new owner, said Scott Blake, a spokesperson for American Electric Power.

 Nuclear Power Dying A Slow Death  - Even as investment in solar and wind is surging, nuclear power has been the main source of carbon-free electricity for decades. “However, in advanced economies, nuclear power has begun to fade, with plants closing and little new investment made, just when the world requires more low-carbon electricity,” the International Energy Agency warned in a new report that takes stock of the nuclear industry.  The IEA says that achieving the goals laid out in the Paris Climate Agreement “is already a huge challenge,” but without nuclear power it will be vastly more difficult. In 2018, nuclear power accounted for 10 percent of global electricity supply. But in the years ahead, nuclear is set to decline without help. In the U.S., nuclear power’s share of the electricity mix could fall from 20 percent to 8 percent by 2040.  One of the main reasons why nuclear power is in decline is that the vast majority of the plants online were built decades ago. Most are now aging and nearing the end of their original intended operating lives. As a result, nuclear plants, particularly in advanced economies, are beginning to shut down. Adding to the industry’s woes in the U.S., nuclear has suffered from a decade of cheap shale gas. Meanwhile, the rise of renewable energy everywhere has significantly undercut the case for new nuclear.  But two major events have struck a devastating blow to the nuclear industry from which it never really recovered. The 1986 nuclear explosion at Chernobyl ground nuclear construction to a halt worldwide.  The Chernobyl incident nearly killed the industry, and choked off new investment for years. After dozens of reactors were constructed in the U.S. in the 1970s-1980s, very few moved forward following Chernobyl. The handful of projects that did receive a greenlight came in the next wave of investment in the 2000s, when electricity prices were rising, concerns about climate change emerged, and memories of Chernobyl and Three Mile Island began to fade. But the “nuclear renaissance,” as the resurging interest in the early 21^st century has been dubbed, was just about killed off before it started. In 2011 an earthquake and tsunami struck the Fukushima Dai-Ichi plant in Japan, causing an explosion and meltdown. Japan closed more than 50 of its nuclear reactors, which not coincidentally led to a spike in global LNG prices and also pushed up demand for oil and coal. Meanwhile, the Fukushima disaster reverberated around the world. In Europe, and in Germany in particular, the disaster accelerated plans to shut down reactors. Again, without nuclear, Japan and Germany had to rely on more fossil fuels, despite the rapid increase of renewable energy.

Nuclear whistleblower managers say TVA fired them to silence workers - The Tennessee Valley Authority has fired some of its nuclear employee whistleblowing program managers in a move their attorney says is intentionally designed to quell safety complaints and silence workers. Attorney Billie P. Garde is urging the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission to stop TVA from implementing its new “chain-of-command” whistleblowing program without review by the commission and the public. In a letter filed Tuesday with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Garde reveals TVA fired four managers from its Nuclear Employee Concerns Program, or Nuclear ECP, earlier this month. A fifth, she says, was forced to retire. TVA then announced it was scrapping the independent whistleblowing program in favor of a “better” one. TVA says in a statement to the Knoxville News Sentinel that the utility isn’t trying to silence workers’ safety concerns or retaliate against the fired whistleblowing program managers. “The primary goal of TVA Nuclear’s Employee Concerns program is to reinforce a healthy Nuclear Safety Culture by providing employees with one of several avenues for reporting issues involving nuclear safety, quality or technical impacts to the safe operation of our plants,” spokesman William Scott Gureck wrote in an email. Garde says the move is a sham. “(The change) completely eviscerated its employee concerns program by publicly removing every single member of the ECP staff, announcing fundamental changes to the program structure itself that undermines the entire concept of an independent alternative avenue, and destroying whatever shred of program credibility was left,” Garde wrote.

Feds offer to speed cleanup of SC’s deadly nuclear waste. - The U.S. Department of Energy is proposing to ship what has long been considered some of the world’s most deadly nuclear waste from South Carolina to burial grounds in the western United States under a plan to reclassify some of the atomic refuse as less dangerous. According to plans, the energy department would classify some of the Savannah River Site’s high-level waste as low-level waste, a type of atomic refuse that is considered less toxic. That, in turn, would allow the material to be shipped to low-level nuclear waste disposal sites in the deserts of Utah and Texas. “We want to look at taking the waste stream in South Carolina and reclassifying it and moving it out of state,’’ said Paul Dabbar, the energy department’s undersecretary for science. As it stands, the country does not have a high-level waste burial ground, meaning SRS must keep the deadly waste at the Aiken area weapons complex indefinitely. The DOE’s plan for reclassifying and shipping waste from SRS is part of a larger proposal to change the definition of nuclear waste at weapons complexes in other parts of the country. The agency says it has historically considered much of the waste that resulted from Cold War weapons production to be high-level. Now, it will consider how radioactive the material is, the DOE said. In addition to the Savannah River Site, nuclear weapons sites in Washington and Idaho that also have high level waste could benefit from the department’s plan to change the definition of nuclear waste, the agency said. Reclassifying waste would speed cleanup at the Savannah River Site, the agency said. The 310-square-mile weapons complex has tons of atomic refuse left over from Cold War weapons production. Much of that waste is held in about four-dozen aging tanks, some of which have cracked. A handful of tanks have been emptied, but most still contain waste.

Groups appeal licensing of Carlsbad-area Holtec nuclear waste facility - A group of environmentalist organizations appealed a decision by the federal government to move forward with licensing a nuclear waste storage facility in southeast New Mexico, citing fears that it could impact local communities and the environment.  Holtec International planned to build a consolidated interim storage (CIS) facility to temporarily hold spent nuclear fuel rods at the surface while a permanent, deep geological repository is developed. Opponents challenged the project’s safety in both transporting and storing the nuclear waste and worried it could become a permanent facility. The only potential repository to hold the waste indefinitely was in Yucca Mountain, Nevada, but state lawmakers opposed the project and its budget was cut by former President Barrack Obama. In May, the federal Atomic Safety and Licensing Board — overseen by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) — denied multiple contentions from the opposition and their calls for more hearings.The Board found that the groups had standing in the process, but that their contentions were unsubstantial. The opposition filed its appeals to that decision on Monday. Diane Curran, lawyer for Beyond Nuclear — a Maryland-based environmentalist group leading the opposition — questioned the legality of the denial and of Holtec’s application.“The Atomic Safety and Licensing Board’s decision is legally erroneous, because there are no exceptions to the clear mandates of the Nuclear Waste Policy Act and Administrative Procedure Act. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission must make its decisions in accordance with the law,” Curran said. “Beyond Nuclear therefore seeks reversal of the licensing board, and also respectfully requests the Commission to order immediate denial of Holtec’s license application to the extent that it violates the Nuclear Waste Policy Act.”

High Radiation Levels Found in Giant Clams Near U.S. Nuclear Dump Site on Marshall Islands - New research found high levels of radiation in giant clams near a 42-year old nuclear waste site in the Central Pacific. The findings have scientists concerned that pollution from the site is leaving the enclosed structure and leaking into the ocean and the food chain, according to the Los Angeles Times. The radioactive clams were found near Runit Dome, which locals call "The Tomb," on the Enewatik Atoll on the Marshall Islands. The clams are a local delicacy and popular in China, which has had a voracious appetite for them in recent years, according to the Los Angeles Times. Yet, the findings suggest that either radiation is oozing out of Runit Dome or the waste from past weapons testing was not adequately cleaned up.From 1946 to 1958, the U.S. carried out 67 nuclear weapons tests at Bikini and Enewetak atolls, including the 1954 "Bravo" hydrogen bomb, the most powerful detonated by the U.S. It was about 1,000 times bigger than the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima during World War II, according to Aljazeera.Radioactive ash fell more than 7,000 square miles from the test site and it blanketed the nearby islands. Children played in the white, powdery substance and ate it like it was snow, Marshall Islands health minister would later testify, according to the Atomic Heritage Foundation.In 1977, the U.S. tipped soil and ash from the explosions into a crater on Runit Island and topped it with an 18-inch thick concrete dome. However, it was supposed to be a temporary fix and the bottom of the crater was never properly insulated, according to CBS News. After decades of exposure to the elements, cracks in the concrete are evident, raising concerns that a fierce tropical cyclone could breach the structure. Recently, the UN Secretary General António Guterres addressed concerns over the legacy of nuclear testing. "The consequences of these have been quite dramatic, in relation to health, in relation to the poisoning of waters in some areas," he said in Fiji, CBS News reported. "I've just been with the president of the Marshall Islands (Hilda Heine), who is very worried because there is a risk of leaking of radioactive materials that are contained in a kind of coffin in the area."

Ohio’s Nuclear Bailout Plan Balloons to Embrace Coal (while Killing Renewable Energy Rules) - While other states are embracing renewable energy, Ohio is heading in the opposite direction. A bill passed this week by the Ohio House would subsidize nuclear and coal power while cutting state support for renewable energy and energy efficiency, with the utilities' customers footing the bill.Advocates and analysts are trying to make sense of a plan that seems to defy political and economic logic: It would support uneconomical power plants by increasing costs for businesses and homeowners, both with new charges on their bills and through the cancellation of programs that help them save money on energy.The measure now heads to the Ohio Senate, and the idea of a nuclear bailout has the support of Republican Gov. Mike DeWine. If it becomes law, it would mean Ohio is decisively turning away from policies that aid the transition to renewable energy, said Kit Kennedy, senior director of the climate and clean energy program for the Natural Resources Defense Council."Ohio is moving in an unprecedented and troubling direction with this bill, which is quite dramatically different from how other states are handling similar issues," she said. The state's renewable energy and energy efficiency standards, already weakened once since becoming law in 2008, have been under continual attack from Republican lawmakers who say they oppose mandates and subsidies. Yet that's what they now want to offer coal and nuclear. Clean energy advocates are pinning their hopes on the idea that the Ohio Senate, which, like the House, is controlled by Republicans, will change the bill. DeWine indicated that the bill is a "work in progress," telling Gongwer News Service on Thursday that he wants to find a way to support nuclear and allow wind and solar to grow. Ohio would be the fifth state to subsidize nuclear power plants that otherwise might close for financial reasons, following Connecticut, Illinois, New Jersey and New York. The difference is that the other four passed nuclear aid as part of a package that included support for renewable energy, part of a larger strategy to promote carbon-free electricity generation.

Bill that would rescue nuclear plants drawing protests across northern Ohio -Toledo Blade - Ohio House Bill 6 — the highly controversial legislation that critics describe as a billion dollar bailout of FirstEnergy Solutions’ Davis-Besse and Perry nuclear power plants — drew 30 protesters late Monday afternoon to Madison Avenue and North Summit Street. The event was held in the shadow of Edison Plaza. Toledo Edison was Davis-Besse’s original owner. There were plenty of honks of support from passing motorists as demonstrators held signs and waved along Summit for about two hours. “Their true intent is bad for Ohio,” the event organizer, Joe DeMare, a member of the Wood County Green Party and a Bowling Green City Council candidate, said about FirstEnergy Solutions and its parent company, FirstEnergy Corp.  The bill, which the Ohio House passed last week by a 53-43 vote, would require consumers to pay monthly surcharges on their electric bills through 2026. It calls for $198 million to be generated annually from those charges to reward plants that emit no carbon dioxide into the air while operating — namely, Davis-Besse and Perry.  Nearly all in support were Republicans and most of those opposed were Democrats. The bill now moves to the Ohio Senate, and, if approved there as expected, goes to Gov. Mike DeWine.  House Bill 6 is the latest of several so-called bailout bills the nuclear industry has pushed in multiple states in hopes of staving off premature closures of more plants having trouble competing during an era of record-low natural gas prices brought on by the modern era of fracturing shale, or “fracking.”

Costs of FirstEnergy nuclear bailout bill could exceed out-of-pocket subsidies A bill to subsidize FirstEnergy Solutions’ two Ohio nuclear plants could cost customers even more than the hundreds of millions of dollars in direct charges proposed to prop up those plus two older coal plants.A new analysis from grid operator PJM concludes that keeping FirstEnergy’s nuclear plants open could also cost ratepayers as much as $16 million a year in lost savings by discouraging cheaper gas generation from coming online.Asim Haque, PJM’s executive director for strategic policy and external affairs,testified about the new analysis before the Ohio Senate Energy and Public Utilities Committee on Wednesday.“PJM’s findings for consumer savings from power plant competition confirm that a competitive generation market is better for millions of Ohio consumers than charging them for bailouts and subsidies under House Bill 6,” said J.P. Blackwood, a spokesperson for the Office of the Ohio Consumers’ Counsel.House Bill 6 passed in the Ohio House of Representatives by a vote of 53-43 on May 29. Under the current version, all retail consumers in the state would pay 50 cents per month for the first year and then $1 per month for the next six years to subsidize FirstEnergy Solutions’ Perry and Davis-Besse nuclear power plants. FirstEnergy Solutions and other FirstEnergy generation subsidiaries are currently in bankruptcy. The bill would also subsidize 1950s-era coal plants and gut Ohio’s clean energy standards. PJM looked at three scenarios for Ohio consumers through 2023. The first “base case” projects that the two Ohio plants and a FirstEnergy Solutions nuclear plant in Pennsylvania will all close as currently planned, and that all expected new natural gas generation plants come online. That scenario should produce $1.6 billion in annual savings across the wholesale market “due to the significant entry of new, efficient resources,” PJM’s report said. The second scenario assumed that all new gas generation plants would still come online and that the Davis-Besse and Perry plants would be “price takers,” bumping up the supply of generation in the market. In theory, that could drive energy prices lower and save Ohioans an additional $95 million for the year 2023. “This decrease, however, does not factor in any subsidy payments that the nuclear units would receive,” Haque said in his testimony. PJM’s third scenario assumes the extra supply in the market would discourage half of additional gas generation coming online by 2023. In that case, “Ohioans would save less than the base case in an amount of $16 million in the year 2023,” Haque said. Again, subsidy payments for FirstEnergy Solutions nuclear plants weren’t factored in. In other words, market prices under that scenario would be higher than they would otherwise be if the plants closed, PJM found. So costs to Ohio consumers would be more than the amount shelled out for the subsidies themselves.

Are Ohio’s two nuclear power plants profitable? Depends who you ask - cleveland.com —An Ohio Senate panel spent much of Tuesday morning hearing arguments between consultants paid by supporters and foes of bailing out two nuclear power plants over a seemingly straightforward question: are the two nuclear plants profitable or not?   Paul Sotkiewicz, a Florida-based energy economics analyst, laid out to the Senate Energy and Public Utilities Committee the findings of his recent study (commissioned by oil and gas group API-Ohio) that the Davis-Besse and Perry nuclear plants in Northern Ohio will make owner FirstEnergy Solutions hundreds of millions of dollars in profits during the next 10 years.But Ray Giffords, a Colorado-based expert hired by FirstEnergy Solutions,rebutted that by saying Sotkiewicz’s findings were flawed and relied on “cherry-picked” data. Giffords argued that data supports his client’s assertion that the plants are financially troubled and will have to close soon without the subsidies proposed in House Bill 6.Their arguments quickly delved into a number of complex, technical issues, such as whether the plants get revenue from capacity market auctions and which electricity-market “hub” should be used to measure electricity prices. Giffords accused Sotkiewicz of selectively using data to reach the conclusions sought by the natural-gas industry; Sotkiewicz shot back that he only had a limited amount of data to go on because FirstEnergy Solutions won’t fully open its books. FirstEnergy Solutions is a FirstEnergy Corp. subsidiary that is going through bankruptcy proceedings as part of an effort to become a separate company.

Opponents of pipeline argue land was improperly seized — Landowners in Ohio hope to convince a federal appeals court that they were forced by a federal agency to sell their property to a pipeline builder sending large quantities of natural gas to Canada. At issue is the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s approval of a project that allowed for the use of eminent domain to build of the 256-mile-long (412-kilometer-long) NEXUS Gas Transmission pipeline across northern Ohio and into Michigan that went into service in October. A three-judge panel from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia heard oral arguments May 6 on a petition filed by the city of Oberlin, Ohio — one of the communities the pipeline crosses — and a group called Coalition to Reroute Nexus. The petition seeks to have the regulatory commission reconsider the certificate it granted to build the pipeline. The panel is expected to rule in the next several months. The opponents’ main argument is that the commission approved an interstate pipeline, which allows for the taking of property through eminent domain, when it should have considered it an export pipeline for which eminent domain is not permitted. Eminent domain allows a government to seize private property, with compensation, for a public use. Nearly a third of the pipeline’s daily capacity of 1.5 billion cubic feet (40 million cubic meters) of gas is headed to Canada, attorney Carolyn Elefant told the panel. “This case implicates constitutional rights,” Elefant said. Carol Banta, an attorney for the regulatory commission, argued that most of the gas being shipped through the pipeline will be consumed in the U.S. She said some of the gas being sent to southern Ontario’s Dawn Hub could be sold back to the U.S. The pipeline is a partnership between Calgary, Canada’s Enbridge Inc. and Detroit’s DTE Energy. Banta told the panel that 93% percent of the pipeline was built without using eminent domain, a figure she called “unusually large.” Judge Robert Wilkins responded: “Even if it’s 1% of eminent domain needed, that’s someone’s property being taken, and that raises constitutional issues.” NEXUS took dozens of property owners to federal court to build the pipeline. The last settlement was reached last week with Elaine Selzer, a resident of Green, Ohio, which the pipeline also passes through. Selzer, a petitioner in the appeals court case, said she is not allowed to divulge the amount she and her family were paid for roughly 2 acres (8,000 square meters). She has told The Associated Press that months ago she rejected NEXUS’ initial offer of $100,000.

 Will Ohio River Get Optional Pollution Limits as New Fracking-Reliant Plastics Industry Moves in? – DeSmog - The Ohio River Valley Water Sanitation Commission (ORSANCO), an eight-state compact responsible for setting water pollution control standards for the 981-mile Ohio River, is considering a proposal to make its water pollution standards — designed to coordinate pollution rules the length of the river — voluntary amid a brewing battle over the fate of a river that’s both the source of drinking water for 5 million people and central to the petrochemical industry’s plans for a new fossil-fueled plastics manufacturing network. In February, ORSANCO backed away from a 2018 plan to simply stop issuing regional pollution control standards for the Ohio River, which has for years topped the list of the nation's most polluted rivers. Now, environmental groups warn,ORSANCO’s compromise solution could let states decide whether or not to accept ORSANCO’s water quality rules.  “If the agency chooses to go that route during its June 6 meeting in Covington, Kentucky,” Rich Cogan, executive director of the Ohio River Foundation wrote in a Cincinnati.com op-ed, “the result would be conflict among states, different compliance standards for businesses in different states and increased costs for utilities, businesses, and consumers for treatment of increased pollution due to weaker standards.” The Ohio River Valley may have outsized importance for the fossil fuel industry, which has laid plans for a massive build-out of petrochemical facilities on the banks of the Ohio, including a Royal Dutch Shell plastics plant currently under construction in Potter Township, Pennsylvania. The petrochemical industry often selects sites that are along waterways like the Ohio River, in part because builders can use barges to bring in large equipment and plant components by water rather than on roads. Shell, for example, was able to ship in 42 100-foot long aluminum silos by barge in October 2018, part of construction underway at Shell's Potter Township plastics plant.  Oil and gas executives predict that even if demand for fossil fuel energy falls amid concerns over climate change, demand for plastics and petrochemicals will remain a growth area for the industry. “Unlike refining, and ultimately unlike oil, which will see a moment when the growth will stop, we actually don’t anticipate that with petrochemicals,” The impacts from construction will reach far beyond the waters of the Ohio River.

Prosecutors Eye Pa.'s Fracking Boom - West Virginia Public Broadcasting – podcast - On this West Virginia Morning, residents in West Virginia and surrounding states living near fracking sites, pipelines and other oil and gas infrastructure have complained about impacts like pollution for years. Now, prosecutors in Pennsylvania have launched criminal probes into the state’s fracking boom. For State Impact Pennsylvania, the Allegheny Front’s Reid Frazier looks ahead to where these investigations might go.

$3 Million Settlement Revealed In High-Profile Fracking Case - In an unusual event, a legal settlement in a high-profile fracking case has been made public because of a computer error. The document, dated Aug. 31, 2018, shows that the gas drilling company Range Resources and other defendants agreed to pay $3 million to three Washington County, Pa., families who alleged that nearby fracking contaminated their properties and made them sick.  The court document was issued under seal but was discovered last week in a public database by a reporter with the public radio program The Allegheny Front and the StateImpact Pennsylvania project. After issuing an injunction, Judge Katherine B. Emery on Tuesday ruled that it could be published. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette is suing to have the entire agreement made public. The families' ordeal was detailed by journalist Eliza Griswold in the book Amity and Prosperity, which was awarded the 2019 Pulitzer Prize in general nonfiction.  Nearly a decade ago, Stacey Haney, Beth Voyles and others said they began smelling foul odors in the air and water in their homes, according to court records. Haney's son was diagnosed with arsenic poisoning. He and other family members visited doctors to complain of nosebleeds, headaches, dizziness, extreme fatigue and rashes. The suit also alleged Range Resources and two contracted laboratories committed fraud and conspiracy by manipulating test results to obscure their findings from the plaintiffs. In 2014, the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection imposed a $4.15 million penalty on the company for violations at six wastewater impoundments in Washington County, including the one near the Haney and Voyles homes. The newly public document does not say how much each of the eight individual plaintiffs were to receive or how much Range and 10 other co-defendants in the case were to pay out. In a separate release, Range said its settlement is for a total of $1.88 million to eight individuals. The settlement includes:

• a blanket release of claims against Range and the co-defendants;
• a clause preventing the plaintiffs from making disparaging comments about the defendants; and
• language giving Range Resources the right of first refusal to buy the properties of Stacey Haney and Beth Voyles, unless they wished to sell or transfer the property to the Voyles children.

The settlement marked a turning point in a long-standing legal dispute that pitted Range, which pioneered hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, in Pennsylvania, against Haney, Voyles and Kiskadden. In November, a few months after the settlement, Kiskadden died.

Judge bars release of document in gas drilling suit - A Washington County judge has issued a court order barring The Allegheny Front, StateImpact Pennsylvania and 90.5 WESA from publishing the content of a publicly available legal document obtained by a reporter for the news organizations, pending a hearing next week. The legal document is an Aug. 30, 2018 Memorandum Order entered in the case of Stacey Haney and several of her Washington County neighbors. The group sued gas-drilling company Range Resources in 2012 for allegedly contaminating their air, groundwater, and soil from activities related to fracking. The suit alleged Range and two contracted laboratories committed fraud and conspiracy by manipulating test results to obscure their findings from the plaintiffs. The case was settled in 2018. The settlement reached at that time is filed under seal. Washington County Prothonotary Joy Ranko said Thursday the memorandum order should not have been public.   But the document was publicly available over the course of at least two days, May 28 and May 29, on the Washington County Prothonotary’s Public Case File Database. Reid Frazier, a reporter for The Allegheny Front and StateImpact Pennsylvania, printed it off the prothonotary printer at 25 cents a page. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette has been involved in ongoing litigation to get the court to unseal the settlement. Range Resources, however, is arguing that it should remain sealed. When Range Resources attorneys learned that Frazier had a copy of the order, they sent him a cease-and-desist letter. Attorneys for the plaintiffs and Range Resources both informed Judge Katherine Emery of the release of the document. Emery then issued the injunction and set the hearing date. The injunction bars the news organizations from “directly or indirectly publishing, circulating, disseminating, disclosing, describing, duplicating, or otherwise sharing in any way contents of the Sealed Documents.” The Haney case and lawsuit are detailed in the Pulitzer Prize-winning book, “Amity and Prosperity,” by the journalist Eliza Griswold.

Washington County judge lifts order that prohibited publication of document in drilling suit --After a nearly hourlong court hearing Tuesday morning, Washington County President Judge Katherine Emery lifted a gag order that prevented Allegheny Front and StateImpact Pennsylvania reporter Reid Frazier from publishing terms of a confidential 2018 settlement between a property owner and natural gas-driller Range Resources.The ruling set the stage for publication of the agreement’s terms today. Frazier would not comment after the hearing. But Emery’s ruling was hailed as a First Amendment victory by David A. Strassburger, an attorney for Frazier and media outlets StateImpact Pennsylvania, Allegheny Front and WESA, which broadcast his work. “If [Range Resources] didn’t want the public to know, they shouldn’t have come to court” to resolve their legal dispute, he said after the hearing. The settlement resolved a civil suit in which Haney and others alleged that they suffered health effects from pollution caused by Range Resources drilling operations, and that the company sought to hide evidence of contamination in water tests. Haney became a central figure in the 2018 book “Amity and Prosperity: One Family and the Fracturing of America,” which won a Pulitzer Prize this year. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette has been seeking to unseal the settlement for months. But after attending a hearing on that dispute last week, Frazier discovered the document was available to the public on a database operated by the Washington County Prothonotary’s office, which keeps records for the county’s civil courts. Frazier printed a copy at the prothonotary’s office and left with it. The prothonotary’s office later confirmed that the material had been made publicly accessible due to an error. At the outset of the hearing, Emery said the problem arose after the office had inadvertently revealed the document while sending it to an Allegheny County judge hearing a related lawsuit filed by Haney.

Report: Pennsylvania natural gas production shows ‘significant’ jump - Total natural gas production in Pennsylvania grew by 14.7% in the first quarter of 2019 compared to the same period last year, a report by the Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office said.“Despite decelerating from the previous two quarters, production growth continued to show significant strength,” the report said.Pennsylvania remains the second-highest natural gas producing state after Texas, with 6.1 trillion cubic feet of natural gas produced in 2018.Production volume for horizontal wells in the first quarter of 2019 reached 1,653.9 billion cubic feet, the report said. All of the production growth for the quarter was from unconventional wells — i.e., wells requiring horizontal drilling into deep formations and fracturing with fluids — spud in 2017 and 2018.Horizontal well production has grown for 11 consecutive months, and average production per well has grown for 10 consecutive months, the report said.There were 8,765 producing horizontal wells in the state in the first quarter of 2019 — a 10.7% increase over the previous year. Since the first quarter of 2017, total producing wells increased by 20.1%, the report said.  Allegheny County, although representing only 2.4% of the production volume in the state, had the highest rate of production growth — 89.3% — from the first quarter of 2018 (21.4 billion cubic feet) to the first quarter of 2019 (40.4 billion cubic feet), the report said.

Woman who fears for granddaughter’s health lacks legal standing to fight natural gas well, Pa. court rules - A grandmother’s attempt to block a proposed natural gas well she claims would endanger the health of her benzine-sensitive granddaughter was nixed by a Commonwealth Court panel Thursday. In an opinion by Judge Anne E. Covey, the judges rejected Jane Worthington’s argument that she should have been granted legal standing to challenge the siting of the Range Resources well near the Washington County elementary school her 12-year-old granddaughter attended. She claimed during a public hearing on the project that fumes from the well, which was to be located less than a mile from the school, would waft over and cause her granddaughter severe health problems, Covey noted. Worthington didn’t oppose the construction of the well. She just wanted it moved farther away from the Fort Cherry Elementary School.  Despite her health concerns, Worthington lacked a direct interest in the effects of the well project, which was approved by the Mount Pleasant Township supervisors in 2016, Covey concluded. Her ruling upholds the findings of the supervisors and a Washington County judge.

Supreme Court ruling gives residents more say over natural gas drilling -- Natural gas producers in West Virginia no longer can drill on one person’s property to reach gas reserves under adjoining or neighboring tracts, the state Supreme Court said Wednesday in a much-anticipated ruling that gives additional leverage to residents struggling with the effects from the booming industry. In a 5-0 ruling, the justices upheld a lower court ruling and jury verdict against EQT Corp., siding with two Doddridge County residents who had sued the state’s second-largest gas company. Justice John Hutchison wrote that gas and other mineral companies must obtain permission from surface owners to use their land to reach reserves under other properties. “The court will not imply a right to use a surface estate to conduct drilling or mining operations under neighboring lands,” Hutchison wrote. “The right must be expressly obtained, addressed, or reserved in the parties’ deeds, leases, or other writings.” In the case, two people who live on a 300-acre farm in Doddridge County said EQT came onto their land to extract gas from underneath adjacent properties. The two people, Beth Crowder and David Wentz, warned EQT that the company would be trespassing. EQT entered the property anyway. Crowder and Wentz sued, and a local circuit judge ruled in their favor, and a jury two years ago awarded them nearly $200,000 in damages. EQT appealed that decision to the West Virginia Supreme Court, and the justices heard oral arguments in the case in March. “To us, the point was kind of obvious, and what’s disappointing is that it took all these years to get the Supreme Court ruling saying so,” said Dave McMahon, one of the lawyers for Crowder and Wentz, who came to the farm in 1975 but divorced in 2005 and now live in separate homes on the property. The case is one of two major gas property-rights and drilling cases heard this term. In a case heard by the Supreme Court in January, Harrison County residents said Antero Resources’ fracking was creating a nuisance. A ruling on that case hasn’t yet been issued. 

Court to Big Fracking Company: Trespassing Still Exists — Even For You -- Seven years ago this month, Beth Crowder and David Wentz told natural gas giant EQT Corp. that it did not have permission to come onto their West Virginia farm to drill for the natural gas beneath neighboring properties. EQT had a lease that entitled the company to the gas directly beneath their farm, but it also wanted to use a new, 20-acre well pad to gather gas from 3,000 acres of adjacent or nearby leases. The company ignored their warnings. It built roads and drilled a well, and it put in horizontal pipes stretching for miles in all directions. Crowder and Wentz sued — and they’ve been fighting EQT in court ever since. On Wednesday, the West Virginia Supreme Court ended the matter with a surprisingly straightforward and unanimous conclusion: Going onto someone else’s land without their permission is trespassing. Gas and other mineral companies must obtain permission from surface owners in order to use their land to reach reserves under other properties, Justice John Hutchison wrote for the court. “The right must be expressly obtained, addressed, or reserved in the parties’ deeds, leases, or other writings,” he wrote. The 22-page court ruling Wednesday represents a rare victory for residents in a state where economics and politics are increasingly controlled by the natural gas business after decades of domination by the coal industry. Making it more gratifying for Crowder and Wentz, the court that ruled in their favor has beenunder the microscope because of connections to the gas industry. Much of the land in mineral-producing parts of West Virginia has split ownership. Someone might own the surface land, while someone else owns the coal, oil or gas underneath. Gas is generally produced under leases, in which gas owners or their ancestors granted a production company the right to drill. But often, the leases are so old the current owners didn’t sign them, and certainly the advanced types of gas-production techniques used today were not anticipated.

Landslides, explosions spark fear in pipeline country — TransCanada Corp. CEO Russ Girling pledged "years of safe, reliable and efficient operation" last year when his company launched the Leach Xpress natural gas pipeline. Five months later, it blew up, snapped by a landslide. "It was 4:10 in the morning, and it was like daylight," recalled Charlie Friend, who lives here, near the steep hollow where the 36-inch pipe ruptured about a year ago. The blast was one of at least six pipeline explosions caused by landslides and similar hazards since early 2018 in Appalachia. They're piling up just as companies work to export the bounty of the Marcellus Shale by planting a new crop of pipelines across the region's valleys, ridgetops and hillsides. The blasts are alarming federal pipeline safety regulators and inspiring fear along the paths of the big, high-pressure gas lines. "We have those same steep slopes," said Tina Smusz, a retired physician fighting the Mountain Valley pipeline being built through the area where she lives near Roanoke, Va. "I don't know what they're thinking. This is such a setup for ruptured pipelines." The Moundsville blast even contributed to the Atlantic Coast pipeline getting put on hold by a federal appeals court, which cited it in a ruling. Pipeline industry representatives acknowledge the danger and difficulty of building pipelines in the mountains. But they say they can build them safely, and technology is continually making them safer. They also stress that design and construction of the lines is closely monitored by the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, or PHMSA. But federal law forbids PHMSA from getting involved in where pipelines should be built. Pipeline expert Rick Kuprewicz says that creates a big gap in pipeline oversight that's been highlighted by the landslide-linked blasts. "No one is really saying, 'We've looked at this and this line is safe,'"   Energy Transfer Partners LP, pledged to fix mistakes after a landslide-linked explosion burned up a home in the Pittsburgh suburbs last year (Energywire, Feb. 22). The company also blamed record rainfall, as did developers of the Mountain Valley pipeline, which has been dogged by washouts and landslides.  The developers of the Atlantic Coast pipeline, though, say critics' landslide protests are diversionary tactics. "This is another attempt to cause a pointless delay,"

Court: Climate Impacts of Pipeline Projects Cannot Be Ignored - The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, a little-known agency that oversees energy infrastructure, receives far less attention when it comes to climate change than the Environmental Protection Agency. But a recent court ruling upheld that it must consider climate impacts in its decisions to approve certain natural gas infrastructure, hindering Trump administration efforts to speed construction on those projects with no regard to their impact on the climate.The ruling, issued Monday by the District of Columbia Court of Appeals in Lori Birckhead et al v. FERC, emphasized that FERC must consider greenhouse gas emissions during its review process of fossil fuel projects. The court upheld that the commission is obligated by law to follow the National Environmental Policy Act(NEPA), which states that FERC must consider the “environmental and related social and economic effects” of a proposed project and disclose them to the public.It added another court defeat to the Trump administration’s attempt to roll back regulation of the energy industry. The administration has been appointing industry-friendly commissioners to FERC’s five-member panel with the goal of approving more infrastructure, such as compressor stations and pipelines, with little to no regard to their climate impacts.  Perhaps most controversial was the nomination and approval of Commissioner Bernard McNamee, who formerly represented fossil fuel companies. McNamee drew sharp criticism during the nomination process forhaving said that carbon dioxide is “not a real pollutant” and fossil fuels are “key to our way of life.”

Amid coal unit retirements, FERC receives three new gas pipeline pitches | S&P Global Platts — The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has received several new applications for short pipeline projects that would help serve gas-fired generation displacing coal-fired units. Equitrans has proposed a 140,000 Dt/d natural gas pipeline project to serve an 830-MW, combined-cycle power plant planned in Brooke County, West Virginia, by ESC Brooke County Power to sell generation into PJM Interconnection through existing transmission lines nearby. According to a Public Service of Commission of West Virginia order granting a siting certificate, the power plant will "help meet PJM's projected load forecast in light of many coal-fired plant closures" and help balance intermittent output of renewables or variation in supply and demand. It referenced 29,192 MW of retirements in PJM from 2011 through 2020. The 16.7-mile, 16-inch-diameter Tri-State Corridor Project would run from Washington County, Pennsylvania, to Brooke County. It is designed to receive its supply from Rover Pipeline and two intrastate pipelines, according to the application filed with FERC May 31 (CP19-473). The power plant developer has a binding precedent agreement for the full capacity. Equitrans is seeking certificate approval by May 31, 2020, to meet an August 2021 in-service date that would allow the power plant to receive test gas by September 2021, to begin the commissioning process so that the plant can start full operations in June 2022. Separately, Florida Gas Transmission has proposed a 21-mile, 169,000 MMBtu/d, pipeline project to increase Seminole Electric Cooperative volumes at the SeaCoast Gas Transmission delivery point in Putnam County, Florida. The Putnam Expansion Project would allow previously unsubscribed firm capacity available on FGT's West Leg system to be moved to FGT's East Leg mainline, according to an application filed with FERC May 31 (CP19-474). This would be accomplished through loop extensions on the East Leg mainline to meet SECI's contractual firm volumes at the SeaCoast Gas Transmission delivery point in Putnam County.   Gulfstream Natural Gas System also proposed the Phase VI Expansion project, designed to add about 78,000 Dt/d of mainline capacity from receipt points in Mississippi and Alabama to a delivery point in Manatee County, Florida. Tampa Electric, which is transforming one unit at a coal-fired station in Hillsborough County, Florida, into a combined-cycle gas generating unit, has a 25-year precedent agreement for the full capacity.

Opponents hope New Jersey scuttles gas pipeline to New York – WHYY --A proposal for a nearly $1 billion pipeline that would carry natural gas from Pennsylvania’s shale fields through New Jersey, a bay and the ocean en route to supplying New York City and Long Island faces some key hurdles this week. New Jersey environmental officials are due to decide Wednesday on several permits for the proposed Northeast Supply Enhancement pipeline. This is the latest pipeline project to stir emotions in the long-running jobs-versus-the environment debate. Opponents hope a denial will stop the project — even though it survived a similar rejection last month in New York and remains under consideration there. Williams Companies, the Oklahoma firm planning to spend $926 million on the project, says it is needed to ensure adequate heating and energy supplies to New York City and Long Island, and that it can be built safely with minimal environmental disruption. Environmental groups and other opponents say the project would stir up tons of highly polluted sediment and reverse decades of hard-won environmental improvements in Raritan Bay, which has been struggling with pollution. “It could kill the bay,” said Rich Isakson, president of the Belford Seafood Cooperative, a group of Raritan Bay fishermen. “Once you dig up all that stuff, it could take 40 years to settle down again. That’s prime fishing and crabbing grounds they’re going right through.” The company counters that its construction method would retain “nearly all” of the sediment loosed during the pipe-laying in a trench, and that remaining sediments would stay in the lower half of the water column. Williams and its customer, the National Grid utility, say the pipeline is needed in order to get the gas to customers. The utility says without the project, it may have to declare a moratorium on gas customer hookups. It is still taking applications from potential new customers but will not process them until after the project is approved, spokeswoman Wendy Ladd said.  Opponents say the project would lead to the burning of more fossil fuels, thus contributing to climate change. They also cite a study by 350.org, an anti-fossil fuel group, that claims the demand for natural gas in New York and Long Island is far less than what Williams asserts. 

New Jersey denies key permits for Williams' NESE natural gas project. New Jersey regulators have rejected key wetlands, water quality and land use approvals for Williams' Northeast Supply Enhancement project, in another blow to the pipeline expansion that would bring 400 MMcf/d of incremental natural gas supply into New York markets.The project only three weeks earlier was denied a water quality certificate by New York state regulators, though Williams has expressed optimism it could answer New York's "technical concern" and meet its in-service target.The New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection, in a decision released late Wednesday, found that Williams' Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line had not fully shown how it could avoid or minimize adverse impacts to surface water quality caused by dredging to build a segment of the pipeline that would run through New Jersey waters of the Raritan Bay. The decision was without prejudice to Transco submitting future modeling analysis to demonstrate that mitigation.The state regulators also found Transco had not shown there were no alternatives that ease impacts of a proposed compressor station to freshwater wetlands and riparian areas, and had not shown a compelling need warranting the compressor station as presently proposed. New Jersey portions of the project include a 32,000 horsepower compressor station in Franklin Township, the 5.96-miles Madison Loop, and the roughly 6-mile Raritan Loop in New Jersey waters.

Firm to reapply for permits to build northeast gas pipeline (AP) — An Oklahoma company says it will reapply to build a hotly contested pipeline that would carry natural gas from Pennsylvania through New Jersey, and under a bay and the ocean to New York. Tulsa-based Williams Companies says it will reapply for key environmental permits that were rejected Wednesday night by New Jersey regulators. The New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection rejected the permits without prejudice, meaning the company can reapply. On Thursday morning, the company said it would do just that. "We are currently assessing the discrete technical issues raised by the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection related to our application for water quality certification," Williams said in a statement. "We believe that we can be responsive to the issues raised by the agency and intend to resubmit the application to the agency in a timely manner to maintain the customer's in-service date requirement." It marked the second time in a month that the proposal survived a rejection by state regulators in the region. Last month, New York regulators determined the project did not meet their standards, but like this one, their decision was made without prejudice, allowing Williams to reapply. "While this is a good victory, it is short-lived," said Cindy Zipf, executive director of the Clean Ocean Action environmental group. "It ensures Williams will be back, and indeed, they already made statements to that effect. COA will continue to battle on with the defenders of the bay and ocean, so this project never sees the light of day." Jeff Tittel, director of the New Jersey Sierra Club, said the project would hurt New Jersey without offering it any benefits.

Whitmer wants Line 5 out of Straits of Mackinac sooner than 2024 — Enbridge’s best case, five-year timeline for construction of a utility corridor in the Straits of Mackinac may not be quick enough for state leaders concerned about the possibility of a leak from the 65-year-old Line 5 oil pipeline. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer told reporters Friday that she’ll be meeting with Enbridge next week, after the utility giant said it could shorten its construction timeline from 10 years to five. “I think we’ve got a duty to get it out quicker than that, and I think that the attorney general feels the same way and that’s my goal,” Whitmer said. Line 5 transports about 23 million gallons of oil and natural gas a day through the Upper Peninsula, including a four-mile, dual-pipeline stretch through the Straits of Mackinac. Enbridge still believes the tunnel is the safest, quickest option for removing Line 5 from the bottom of the Straits of Mackinac, and negotiations are ongoing regarding the timeline for its closure, company spokesman Michael Barnes said Friday. "We are committed to working with the governor absolutely and finding a path forward for the tunnel project," Barnes said. "I believe that we all have a shared vision to reduce risk.” Whitmer’s comments came on the final day of the Mackinac Policy Conference, where Attorney General Dana Nessel, the governor and Enbridge have floated threats, negotiations and proposals regarding the controversial pipeline. Earlier this week, Nessel said she would move to shutter Line 5 by the end of June if Whitmer didn’t reach a new agreement with the company. Whitmer has been in discussions with the company for several weeks after Nessel in March issued a formal legal opinion declaring unconstitutional a law passed by the Republican-controlled Legislature at the end of 2018 creating an authority to oversee construction of a tunnel to house Line 5 and other utilities. Whitmer halted state agency work on the project shortly after Nessel issued her opinion. 

Enbridge, Gov. Whitmer fail to reach new Line 5 deal -- Enbridge Energy is taking legal action to circumvent Gov. Gretchen Whitmer after they were unable to reach a deal on shutting down the Line 5 oil and gas pipeline in the Straits of Mackinac.The Canadian energy company announced Thursday, June 6, it is asking the Michigan Court of Claims to effectively reinstate the Line 5 tunnel dealthey made with former Gov. Rick Snyder. Enbridge Executive Vice President Guy Jarvis says they are unable to negotiate with Whitmer, claiming she is holding firm to shutting down the controversial pipeline within two years. Jarvis told reporters that to shut down Line 5 in two years without a replacement would cause a “serious disruption of the energy market in the state.” A Line 5 replacement housed in a utility tunnel underneath the Straits wouldn’t be operational until 2024, the company has previously said. Whitmer previously said construction delays and potential litigation could delay that target by several years. Even if Whitmer proposed a shutdown in three years’ time, Jarvis said his company wouldn’t agree. In a statement, Whitmer’s office said the governor “remains committed to protecting the Great Lakes and getting Line 5 out of the water as quickly as possible." “This Tuesday, Enbridge walked away from the negotiating table with the governor, and has now chosen to pursue litigation rather than negotiate in good faith to find a reasonable solution that includes a date certain for decommissioning Line 5,” the statement read. “It is now abundantly clear that Enbridge -- which is responsible for the largest inland oil spill in American history in Marshall, Michigan -- is only interested in protecting its bottom line.”

Federal report says human error led to anchor strike that dented Line 5 - In a new report, the National Transportation Safety Board blames human error that led to equipment failures for an anchor strike in April 2018 that dented the Line 5 twin pipelines. Attorney General Dana Nessel says the report is evidence the pipelines need to be removed from the Great Lakes.The NTSB report says the vessel was short staffed during the Easter weekend as mistakes were made that allowed an anchor to drag on the lake bed. It struck Line Five and the pipelines were dented.The anchor strike also caused damage to electric cables and a mineral oil leak.  Kelly Rossman-McKinney is the attorney general’s communications director. She says the incident is further proof Line 5 needs to be shut down. “What that report does is reinforce what we already know, which is that it is that is incredibly dangerous to continue operating in the Straits of Mackinac,” says Rossman-McKinney. “We are really just an, I mean seriously, an anchor strike, a total unintended anchor strike, away from devastation in the Great Lakes.”   Governor Gretchen Whitmer says she wants a deal on the future of Line 5 by June 10th. In a statement, Enbridge said it's standing by plans to construct a tunnel that would house a replacement section of Line 5:

MN court says PUC didn't weigh oil spill impact in Line 3 pipeline decision - In a victory for Line 3 oil pipeline opponents, the Minnesota Court of Appeals on Monday reversed the state Public Utilities Commission's approval of the Line 3 replacement project's environmental review, saying it didn't adequately address the potential impact of a spill in the Lake Superior watershed. Last June, the PUC approved Enbridge Energy's plan to replace its aging Line 3 oil pipeline, which has been transporting oil across northern Minnesota from Alberta, Canada, since the 1960s. As part of that process, the PUC approved an environmental impact statement — a review of potential impacts the project might have on the surrounding environment. The environmental groups Friends of the Headwaters and Honor the Earth, as well as the Mille Lacs Band of Ojibwe, the White Earth Band of Ojibwe and the Red Lake Band of Chippewa Indians appealed the PUC's decision to approve that environmental impact statement. They argued that the environmental review of the Line 3 project did not adequately analyze the potential impacts of oil spills along the route or the potential harm to tribal resources. At the same time that it rejected the review's treatment of a spill near Lake Superior, the court also upheld the majority of the more than 3,000-page environmental impact statement. It also rejected most of the arguments made by pipeline opponents, including their contention that the study didn't sufficiently take into account the climate impacts of the pipeline, and didn't adequately analyze impacts on tribal cultural resources. Supporters of the project say they're heartened that the court upheld the majority of the environmental study's findings. "While no one likes further uncertainty, what's important is the court reaffirmed on numerous counts that the [Public Utilities] Commission acted correctly and produced a final [environmental impact statement]," 

Another Oil Pipeline Blow As Court Rules Against Enbridge Line 3 - Enbridge’s Line 3 pipeline replacement project ran into another unsurprising roadblock on Monday after a Minnesota State Court of Appeals ruled that its environmental assessment just wasn’t good enough.The ruling is a reversal of Minnesota Public Utilities Commission’s decision that approved the environmental impact statement for the pipeline replacement.The project plans to replace Enbridge’s existing 282 miles of 34-inch pipeline with 337 miles of 36-inch pipe. The appellate court found today that the Commission erred when it approved the plan, and found that Enbridge’s environmental impact statement lacked in specificity, specifically where it deals with oil spills in relation to Lake Superior.The new Line 3 would have the capacity to move 370,000 barrels of oil per day, alleviating the takeaway capacity constraints that Canada is facing. Line 3 is one of two pipeline projects in the works that are—in their unfinished state—keeping Canada’s oil industry from reaching its potential.Line 3 has faced numerous legal challenges and has been approved and disapproved several times over.Enbridge has pushed back its startup date, which was originally supposed to be at the end of 2019. The latest date given, prior to today’s loss, was in H2 2020.Enbridge Inc. was trading down on the unfavorable news at $35.53 per share (-3.64%).Enbridge is also struggling to get its Line 5 replacement project in Michigan off the ground. The company is in talks with Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer on how to proceed. One option being considered is shutting the aging Line 5. Meanwhile, oil is still flowing through both of the aging lines—a real concern as aging pipelines come with a higher risk of leakages.

A setback for Line 3: What the latest court ruling means for the future of the project - The Minnesota Court of Appeals ruled Monday that state regulators failed to consider the impact of an oil spill in Lake Superior’s watershed when they approved an environmental review for Enbridge’s Line 3 project and dealt a setback to plans for the controversial oil pipeline.The court sided with a coalition of tribes and environmental nonprofits in reversing a decision by the state’s Public Utilities Commission. The ruling may delay Enbridge’s progress toward building the $2.6 billion project.While the environmental impact study (EIS) — a 13,500 page document — was approved unanimously by the five-member PUC last year, Judge James B. Florey wrote that its failure to address an oil spill that could flow into Lake Superior ultimately made it deficient. “The bottom line is the court decided that the environmental impact statement that was prepared for Line 3 does not meet the statutory standards,” said Scott Strand, an attorney representing Friends of the Headwaters in the lawsuit. “It’s not adequate.”Enbridge hopes to build Line 3 to replace an aging and corroding 34-inch pipeline that is currently operating at about half capacity. The new 36-inch pipeline would traverse a similar, but altered, 337-mile route through north-Central Minnesota, passing through the Mississippi Headwaters region before reaching a terminal in Superior, Wisconsin. It would carry about 760,000 barrels of oil per day. Enbridge still needs a few state permits and approval from the Army Corps of Engineers before it can begin Line 3 construction. The company had hoped to start building earlier this year, but extended its timeline to November. Enbridge’s timeline could now be pushed even further back if the PUC takes a harder look at the potential impact of spills near Lake Superior.

Exclusive: Enbridge Is Behind This Front Group Pushing the Company’s Line 3 Oil Pipeline Project | DeSmogBlog -- Minnesotans for Line 3, a group established last year to advocate for an Enbridge oil pipeline project, presents itself as a grassroots organization consisting of “thousands of members.” But a DeSmog investigation has found that behind the scenes, the Calgary-based energy giant is pulling the strings. Enbridge has provided the group with funding, public relations, and a variety of advocacy tactics.The investigation has also found that a public relations firm behind the operation recently tried to erase its ties to Enbridge.  Minnesotans for Line 3 first appeared in the battle over Enbridge’s Line 3 Replacement Project early last year.Opponents, who this week employed direct action tactics to block initial work on the project and delivered a petition to Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, include several Native communities — among them the White Earth and Mille Lacs Bands of Ojibwe and the Red Lake Band of Chippewa. Of their main concerns, these groups cite violation of Indigenous rights, risks associated with oil spills, and climate change impacts.Through a series of TV ads and op-eds, along with a social media campaign and a petition delivered to state authorities, Minnesotans for Line 3 called for approving Enbridge’s multi-billion dollar plan to replace and  reroute its aging pipeline that transports Canadian tar sands oil through North Dakota and Minnesota to Superior, Wisconsin.

Trump administration seeks criminal crackdown on pipeline protests – - The Trump administration is joining calls to treat some pipeline protests as a federal crime, mirroring state legislative efforts that have spread in the wake of high-profile demonstrations around the country. The Transportation Department’s Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration released a proposal Monday calling for Congress to expand a law that threatens fines and up to 20 years' prison time for "damaging or destroying" pipelines currently in operation. The expanded version would add "vandalism, tampering with, or impeding, disrupting or inhibiting the operation of" either existing pipelines or those "under construction." While House Democrats will almost certainly block the proposal, it intensifies fights already underway in several energy-producing states to tamp down the waves of pipeline protests launched by progressive environmental advocates around the country as they seek to stop production of fossil fuels. PHMSA insists it doesn't want to inhibit legitimate protests, but free speech advocates worry that efforts to impose massive fines and years in prison for “impeding” pipeline construction could also infringe on activists' First Amendment rights. “The proposed penalty is far and away more extreme than what we’ve seen at the state level,” said Elly Page, attorney for International Center for Not-For-Profit Law, a nonprofit group that has tracked anti-protest bills through state legislatures. “When you combine provisions that vague to penalties that extreme, that creates uncertainty about what is and isn’t legal.” PHMSA included the proposal, which appears similar to model legislation that conservative American Legislative Exchange Council created, in a longer list of changes the department would like to see in pipeline safety standards that Congress is set to reauthorize. A spokesperson for Energy and Commerce Chairman Frank Pallone said he "has no intention of allowing a pipeline safety bill to be used as a vehicle for stifling legitimate dissent and protest," and is concerned that is what the proposal would do. 

Pipeline Protesters Could Face up to 20 Years in Prison Under New Trump Proposal - Building on efforts by multiple states to crack down on those fighting the construction of climate-destroying fossil fuel infrastructure, the Trump administration unveiled a proposal on Monday that would criminalize pipeline protests at the federal level and hit demonstrators with up to 20 years in prison.The new proposal, released by Transportation Department's Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, was immediately denounced by environmentalists as a serious threat to the First Amendment. "This dangerous proposal threatens to undermine Americans' right to peaceful assembly and free speech," Kelly Martin, director of the Sierra Club's Beyond Dirty Fossil Fuels campaign, said in a statement. "It is a blatant attempt to intimidate those who would exercise their First Amendment rights to speak out against pipeline projects that put our clean water, communities, and climate at risk.""Rather than focusing on shielding corporate polluters from public protest," Martin said, "the administration should be working to ensure that communities are protected from dirty, dangerous fossil fuel projects."As Politico reported Monday, the Transportation Department's proposal would "treat some pipeline protests as a federal crime, mirroring state legislative efforts that have spread in the wake of high-profile demonstrations around the country." The Trump administration, according to Politico, is "calling for Congress to expand a law that threatens fines and up to 20 years' prison time for 'damaging or destroying' pipelines currently in operation. The expanded version would add 'vandalism, tampering with, or impeding, disrupting, or inhibiting the operation of' either existing pipelines or those 'under construction.'"

Trump’s offshore policy stalled, but industry continues eastern Gulf push – Platts podcast - Some view the Trump administration's push to expand offshore oil and gas drilling to most federal waters as a failure. But with plans for oil and gas lease sales for the Atlantic and Arctic on an indefinite hold, amid court battles and leadership changes, the industry continues to push for access to the Norphlet play in the eastern Gulf. Much of the deepwater play is under a federal moratorium until 2022 and leases there will be highly sought after when that expires. But drilling in the eastern Gulf is fiercely opposed by Florida lawmakers and a compromise has proved difficult. On today's Capitol Crude, Erik Milito, the American Petroleum Institute's vice president of upstream and industry operations, and Christopher Guith, acting president of the US Chamber of Commerce's Global Energy Institute, talk about future output hopes for the Norphlet, the challenges of opening the eastern Gulf to drilling and the consequences of not expanding lease sales.

GOM Production Poised to Set New Records --Oil production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico (GoM) is poised to set new records in the imminent future.That’s what energy research and business intelligence company Rystad Energy said in a statement posted on its website recently.Rystad forecasts that 2019 oil output from the region will average 1.95 million barrels per day (bpd), with some months “potentially touching the two million bpd ceiling”. GoM oil production averaged 1.28 million bpd in 2013 and steadily rose to average a record high of 1.79 million bpd in 2018, Rystad highlighted.“With earlier than planned production, Appomattox will be a key growth contributor to help push U.S. Gulf of Mexico oil production toward a new record high before year-end,” Joachim Milling Gregersen, an analyst on Rystad Energy’s upstream team, said in a company statement.The deepwater Appomattox project is Shell’s largest floating platform in the GoM, according to Shell’s website. The company produced first oil from the development last month and anticipates an average peak annual production of 175,000 barrels of oil equivalent (boe) from the project. Rystad forecasts that plateau production at the Appomattox development will be around 140,000 boe per day.Shell will be one of the top 2019 GoM equity producers, according to a list published by Rystad back in April. Other top equity producers from the region this year, according to Rystad’s list, will include BP, Equinor and ExxonMobil. A combined Chevron and Anadarko Petroleum entity took first place in the list, with Rystad predicting that such a company would produce just above 400,000 boe per day. Chevron ended up bowing out of the chase for Anadarko after Occidental Petroleum made a proposal to acquire the company. Last month, Occidental agreed to buy Anadarko for $57 billion.

GOM Workers Missing After Pair of Incidents - The U.S. Department of the Interior’s Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) and the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) are investigating the exact causes of two recent incidents in which Gulf of Mexico (GOM) workers fell through platform deck openings. On May 29, a production operator on Renaissance Offshore’s platform in Eugene Island Block 331 apparently fell through a displaced section of grating, according to BSEE and USCG reports. The 54-year-old employee was reported missing from the offshore Louisiana platform after personnel onboard found his hardhat and clipboard next to an opening in the wellbay deck, BSEE reported on June 4. According to the bureau, the open hole measured approximately 93 inches long by 13.5 inches wide and was approximately 45 feet above the water’s surface. Although the investigation is ongoing, BSEE stated that preliminary information indicates that the wellbay deck area was taped off with red “DANGER” tape before the incident but that the area had not been hard-barricaded to prevent the flow of personnel. USGC reported June 1 that it had called off the search for the missing worker. Late on June 1, a similar second incident occurred on the Chevron-operated Platform A in Green Canyon Block 205. According to BSEE, two employees went to replace the well access hatch cover over the well on the drill deck at approximately 11 p.m. “Preliminary information indicates that each of the two employees inadvertently picked up the wrong hatch cover,” stated BSEE. “Each employee grabbed one handle of the cover, which was the same color as the deck and had no well identifying information on it.” BSEE added that the action “unknowingly created an open hole” into which one employee stepped in and fell through as the hatch was moved. The hole was approximately 90 feet above a lower deck, BSEE also stated. The BSEE link above includes photos of the openings on the Renaissance Offshore and Chevron platforms.

BSEE forms panels to investigate two Gulf incidents - Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) Gulf of Mexico Regional Director Lars Herbst has established two panels to investigate two serious incidents that occurred in the Gulf of Mexico last week, the agency states. The first investigation will focus on a man-overboard/missing person incident that occurred Wednesday at Eugene Island Block 331, Platform “B”. The Renaissance Offshore LLC platform is located about 170 miles southwest of New Orleans. The second will investigate a fatality that occurred Saturday, at Chevron’s Green Canyon Block 205, Platform “A” (Genesis) about 150 miles southwest of New Orleans. “The safety of workers must be of the utmost priority for offshore operators,” Herbst said. “Both incidents last week involved workers falling through platform decks to a lower elevation or to the water’s surface. We are issuing a safety alert to the industry with recommendations to reduce the likelihood of similar incidents in the future.” A safety alert is a tool used by BSEE to inform the offshore oil and gas industry of the circumstances surrounding a potential safety issue. It also contains recommendations that help operators avoid potential similar incidents. BSEE will work closely with the U.S. Coast Guard’s New Orleans Investigations Unit to review the information provided through interviews by the operator, the contract employees, witnesses and subject matter experts. Investigators will also analyze evidence from forensic testing. Each panel will consist of a team of BSEE investigators, inspectors and engineers.

Biden’s Climate Plan: Much More than Natural Gas, But Still Natural Gas -- On Tuesday, Democratic presidential hopeful and former vice president Joe Biden released his highly anticipated plan to address climate change. Billed as a “revolution,” it amounts an aggressive ‘all of the above’ strategy that draws from the Green New Deal while allowing for the continued production and development of natural gas and natural gas infrastructure at home and abroad. Speculation about the plan had been swirling since Reuters reported early last month that Biden was seeking a “middle ground” on climate change—a claim his campaign denied. The response to that news from progressives was swift and angry. Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, both presidential contenders, seized on the story to draw immediate contrast with Biden.But with the $1.7 trillion package—dubbed the Plan for a Clean Energy Revolution and Environmental Justice—now released, the heat seems to have tapered off a bit—though news outlets were quick to point out that several lines contained within were lifted from other organizations, calling to mind the plagiarism scandal that ended Biden’s 1988 presidential campaign. Much of the coverage of the plan, however, focused on the ambitious nature of its proposals. Despite its big goals, the Biden climate plan has serious weaknesses. It leaves wide open a lane for natural gas. Not only does it lack a ban on fracking, but there’s also language suggesting the practice could expand under a Biden administration. That language is located quite literally in the first substantive section, which outlines promised executive actions.“On day one, Biden will use the full authority of the executive branch to make progress and significantly reduce emissions,” it reads. “Biden recognizes we must go further, faster, and more aggressively than ever before by: Requiring aggressive methane pollution limits for new and existing oil and gas operations.” It seems clear that natural gas is treated as a cleaner-burning transition fuel, which casts a dubious light on the plan’s promise to “re-claim the mantle as the world’s clean energy leader and top exporter.” Democrats have been pushing the gospel of natural gas since the Obama years. In April, the Democratic House overwhelmingly voted for a bill allocating $580 million in federal funding to help Europe transition its energy economy by building natural gas infrastructure.

It's Time to Stop Calling Natural Gas a 'Bridge Fuel' to a Safe Climate, Says New Report – DeSmog - Natural gas, marketed for years as a “bridge fuel” to cleaner energy sources, cannot be part of any climate solution, according to a new report from Oil Change International. While its authors outline a range of arguments, the report, Burning the Gas “Bridge Fuel” Myth: Why Gas is Not Clean, Cheap, or Necessary, highlights this simple reason: There is no room for new fossil fuel development — natural gas included — within the Paris Agreement goals. Therefore, plans to transition to a natural gas-based system are incompatible with international climate goals.  “We simply have no more time to debate what’s already been settled. We must move swiftly to a fully renewable energy economy and leave all fossil fuels, including gas, behind,” said Lorne Stockman, report author and Senior Research Analyst for Oil Change International. “Despite desperate attempts by the oil and gas industry to persuade policymakers that their products have a future in a climate-safe world, a rational look at the data clearly shows otherwise.”  While this fact alone should be enough to counter the industry’s attempt to sell natural gas — which is mostly the potent greenhouse gas methane — as a “clean” fuel, there are plenty of other reasons to move on from all fossil fuels, including natural gas.   The low cost of renewable energy has helped end the future of the coal industry and is now poised to do the same to natural gas. The concept of natural gas as a “bridge fuel” was based on the idea that the world needed a reliable and economical energy source to cover the transition until renewables plus storage were a viable alternative. That time is now. And this is happening as the world is awash in very cheap natural gas. In America, the price of natural gas has gone negative in places like the Permian Basin in Texas. In North Dakota, oil and gas producers are currently flaring 20 percent of the gas they produce because it isn’t worth capturing. Natural gas prices can’t go lower and can only go up from here. Meanwhile, the costs of renewables continue to fall, and energy analysts predict that the costs of battery storage will continue dropping rapidly. The economics of renewables plus storage are competitive with natural gas now and appear poised to widen the gap in the near future.

 Natural Gas Prices Plunge To New Multi-Year Lows - How low can you go? That's the question that is on the minds of many in the natural gas world, as we had our third consecutive session with a noteworthy decline, sending the July contract another 5 cents lower today, barely closing above the $2.40 level.  These levels are quite uncommon for this time of the year, especially considering we are still (for now) at storage levels that are under the 5-year average. Mother Nature is not helping out lately, however. Last week we looked at El Niño and pointed out how this phenomenon was something to watch as we move forward, and how it had gained some strength last week. This week's data shows some further strengthening as well, as seen in the latest sea surface temperature anomalies posted by NOAA.  No, this doesn't mean El Niño is now a lock to rule the weather pattern, but the recent strengthening is having an impact. Here is the typical summer correlation with El Niño and summer temperature departures:  As you can see, it's a fairly widespread cooler signal. Now let's check the latest GEFS for the 6-10 day period:  And the 11-15 day time frame:   That's a lot more "blue" than what we saw previously, as the atmosphere is responding to the push farther into El Niño territory. It results in demand levels that now have fallen a little below the long term 30-year normal, and well under levels seen last year.  Of course, weather is not the only reason prices are where they are, but it isn't exactly being friendly to bulls either. Time will tell if that changes..

Back-to-Back Bearish Storage Surprises Open Floor for Natural Gas Futures - One week after delivering a massively bearish storage injection, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported another triple-digit whopper that sets the stage for more downside in natural gas futures prices. The EIA reported a 119 Bcf injection into storage inventories for the week ending May 31. The build was well above last year’s 93 Bcf injection and the five-year 102 Bcf average build. Ahead of the report, analysts had expected a build closer to 110 Bcf. A Bloomberg survey of 16 analysts showed injections ranging from 103 Bcf to 121 Bcf, with a median of 109 Bcf. A Reuters poll of 19 analysts had a range reflecting a build between 104 Bcf and 124 Bcf, with a median of 109 Bcf. Intercontinental Exchange settled Wednesday at a 110 Bcf injection. NGI projected a 111 Bcf build. “I think there was Memorial Day impact. Just didn’t see it in the scrapes I saw. Shouldn’t have assumed it away,” said Flux Paradox LLC President Gabriel Harris on Enelyst, an energy chat room hosted by The Desk. Nymex gas futures responded swiftly to the EIA data. The July contract was trading about a penny higher day/day at around $2.39 about 10 minutes ahead of the EIA’s 10:30 a.m. ET report. The prompt month then fell to $2.354 as the print hit the screen. By 11 a.m. ET, the July contract was down to $2.333, down 4.5 cents on the day. While some analysts believe prices are already nearing a bottom with little room for additional downside ahead, Harris said he didn’t see a reversal on the recent price trend until August becomes the prompt month. “Anyone who will get desperate for supply in July is already in decent shape.” Balance wise, the 119 Bcf build is barely tighter than last week’s extremely loose 114 Bcf print, indicating that there is simply more supply in the market than what the data is showing, according to Bespoke Weather Services. The firm had projected a build of 110 Bcf. “Given the improvement we have seen in balance data for the current week, we still believe next week’s number will reveal tightening has occurred, but it is harder to trust given the perceived supply inaccuracies in the data,” Bespoke chief meteorologist Brian Lovern said. Broken down by region, 37 Bcf was injected into Midwest facilities, 31 Bcf was added in the East and 15 Bcf was injected into the Pacific region, according to EIA. The South Central saw 28 Bcf added to inventories, including 25 Bcf into nonsalt facilities and 3 Bcf into salts. Total working gas in storage as of May 31 stood at 1,986 Bcf, which is 182 Bcf above last year and 240 Bcf below the five-year average, EIA said.

Natural Gas Plunges on Supply Data, Hits Fresh 3-Year Lows - The U.S. Energy Department's weekly inventory release showed another larger-than-expected increase in natural gas supplies. The bearish injection, which was also higher than the five-year average, intensified a sell-off that left the U.S. benchmark with its lowest close in three years. Analysis: Another Massive Supply Build Stockpiles held in underground storage in the lower 48 states rose by 119 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ended May 31, above the guidance (of 111 Bcf gain) as per the analysts surveyed by S&P Global Platts. Moreover, the increase was higher than the five-year (2014-2018) average net injection of 102 Bcf and last year’s increase of 93 Bcf for the reported week. The latest rise in inventories puts total natural gas stocks at 1.986 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) - 182 Bcf (10.1%) above 2018 levels at this time but 240 Bcf (10.8%) under the five-year average. Fundamentally speaking, total supply of natural gas averaged around 94.2 Bcf per day, essentially unchanged on a weekly basis even as dry production fell by 1%. Meanwhile, daily consumption increased 2.4% to 81.1 Bcf primarily due to strong power sector demand. Natural Gas Prices Hit Fresh 3-Year Low Natural gas futures extended losses on Thursday to touch fresh three-year lows – following a 1.6% drop in the previous session on Wednesday – after U.S. government data revealed a weekly injection in domestic stockpiles that was much more than expected. The commodity edged lower by 5.4 cents yesterday, at $2.324 per MMBtu, after earlier dropping to a new low since June 2016 at $2.305 per MMBtu. Natural gas is now 38% down from its Jan 15 high of $3.722 per MMBtu. Can it Rebound? The fundamentals of natural gas consumption continue to be favorable. The demand for cleaner fuels and the commodity’s relatively lower price has catapulted natural gas' share of domestic electricity generation to 35%, from 25% in 2011. Moreover, new pipelines to Mexico, together with large-scale liquefied gas export facilities have meant that exports out of the U.S. are set for a quantum leap. Finally, higher consumption from industrial projects will likely ensure strong natural gas demand. However, record high production in the United States and expectations for explosive growth through 2020 means that supply will keep pace with demand. Therefore, prices are likely to trade sideways but for weather-driven movements. Also, with the traditional withdrawal season (when supplies fall on heating demand due to cold weather) having ended in March and predictions for a cooler early summer, consumption is likely to decline in the near term.

What's Up With The EIA Misses? --For the second consecutive week, the natural gas market was hit with an EIA report that showed a much higher build than almost all of the market estimates, with today's report showing an injection of 119 bcf compared to market consensus, and our own estimate, of 110 bcf, which again reflected supply / demand balances that were very loose. This led to the July contract closing over 5 cents lower, making yet another multi-year low. This begs the question, what is behind the recent misses? It doesn't seem to be the supply side, as we continue to see production failing to get back to its previous highs. But is there more supply out there than is being indicated? We cannot be sure of this, although the extreme weakness in physical cash markets suggests it is a possibility. Another explanation could relate to the weather. Last week we discussed the possibility that the 114 bcf build could have been high at least partially due to higher wind generation. That is not as much of a factor in this week's report, but let's dig a little deeper into the week's weather. Here are the daily GWDDs for the week ending 5/31: Focus on the period highlighted in yellow. That was the Memorial Day weekend. Some of the week's highest demand happened to fall right on the holiday weekend. This could mean the overall impact of less actual demand due to the long holiday weekend was simply underestimated.Either option is viable, or perhaps more likely, it is a combination of both. The truth will reveal itself soon enough, with a very important EIA report on tap for next week.

 The Next LNG Boom Will Dwarf The Last One - Demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) will continue to rise in the foreseeable future as global natural gas demand will grow exponentially with major emerging economies raising the share of gas in their energy mix. LNG plant developers are already planning the next wave of a new investment boom in the industry, following the first global LNG development surge at the beginning of this decade. But as the new wave of project approvals and investments is set to sweep the market over the next few years, one question is on analysts’ minds—will the new LNG projects avoid the fate of the previous wave of LNG development, when cost overruns and delays were the rule rather than the exception. This year could be the biggest year yet in terms of LNG volumes of projects given the go-ahead, analysts say. This year is likely to set a record for volume of new project approvals, Michael Stoppard, Vice President and Chief Strategist for Global Gas at IHS Markit, wrote in March this year. “The projects first out of the gates seem likely to serve as a “firing pistol” to initiate a new phase of development,” he said, noting that IHS Markit sees LNG demand rising from 320 million tons (mt) in 2018 to 465 mt by the mid-2020s, and exceeding 630 mt by the mid-2030s.

Cheniere makes positive FID on 6th LNG train at Sabine Pass in Louisiana - Cheniere Energy advanced plans Monday for a sixth liquefaction train at its Sabine Pass export terminal in Louisiana and disclosed an arrangement that would tie a natural gas producer to an international price index and help support an expansion at its Corpus Christi facility in Texas. Executives promised investors steady growth heading into the next decade, at a time when other developers are starting up export facilities along the US Gulf and Atlantic coasts and proposing new ones. Looking to distance itself from its competition, the biggest US LNG exporter said optimization efforts will allow it to boost the average production of all of its trains to as high as 5 million mt/year. The difference now, compared with when Cheniere first contemplated being an exporter a decade ago, is that, as it has matured, it has built a portfolio with its long-term supply contracts that can be used to support production units across its facilities, rather than necessarily being tied to a specific train. That has given it, and the banks that are helping finance its latest train, confidence. The positive final investment decision to advance a sixth train at Sabine Pass was largely expected by the market after Cheniere announced in December 2018 an offtake deal with Malaysia's Petronas to support the production unit. Cheniere said in its presentation that an offtake agreement with commodity trader Vitol announced in September 2018 will also be used to support Train 6. Mostly what was left in recent months was for Cheniere to obtain financing to help pay for building the train. Cheniere said it has obtained $1.5 billion in financing. When the Petronas and Vitol offtake that is being assigned to the Sabine Pass unit are combined, about 40% of the original capacity from Train 6 is covered directly by long-term contracts. When Cheniere made a positive FID on the third train at its facility in Texas, it did so with 66% of the capacity covered by long-term contracts tied specifically to the unit, compared with the roughly 87% of capacity that Cheniere contracted for earlier trains at both of its terminals.

Cheniere inks long-term deal with Apache, firms up 6th LNG train— Cheniere Energy firmed up a pair of deals while moving ahead with the planned expansion of its Gregory export terminal and another facility in Louisiana. The company's subsidiary, Cheniere Corpus Christi Liquefaction Stage III, inked a long-term gas supply agreement with Apache Corp., a Houston-based oil and gas exploration and production company. Cheniere has a permit for three production units at its facility off State Highway 35 and is waiting for a permit to construct seven mid-scale production units. Together, they will be able to produce 9.5 million metric tons of LNG per year. Under the deal, Apache will sell 140 million cubic feet of natural gas daily that can be used to make 850,000 metric tons of LNG annually to Cheniere's Corpus Christi Stage III. The agreement is for 15 years. “This first-of-its-kind long-term agreement with Apache represents a commercial evolution in the U.S. LNG industry,” said Jack A. Fusco, Cheniere’s President and CEO. “This commercial agreement, which is expected to support the Corpus Christi Stage III project, reinforces Cheniere’s track record of creating innovative, collaborative solutions to meet customers’ needs and support Cheniere’s growth.” The use of natural gas is expected to climb in the coming years as China and other major consumers look to wean their industrial and power sectors off other dirtier fossil fuels, such as coal. Cheniere, a Houston company, is the biggest supplier of U.S. LNG and also the biggest buyer of gas in the country. Cheniere also announced it will build the sixth liquefaction train at its Sabine Pass LNG export terminal in Cameron Parish.

Leaks threaten safety — and success — of America's top natural gas exporter –   In just three years, a 1,000-acre complex surrounded by Louisiana swampland has become the unlikely epicenter of America’s booming natural gas business.Sabine Pass terminal is the crown jewel of Cheniere Energy, a Houston company that had a virtual monopoly on U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, until last spring. In November, Cheniere opened a second terminal — eclipsing competitors racing to construct their first sites. The company is in talks to close its third deal with China, worth an estimated $18 billion. But cracks in Cheniere’s runaway success story have started to show.Last year gashes up to six feet long opened up in a massive steel storage tank at Sabine Pass, releasing super-chilled LNG that quickly vaporized into a cloud of flammable gas. Federal regulators worried the tank might give way, spilling the remainder of the fuel and setting off an uncontrollable fire. It wasn’t an isolated event: Another tank was leaking gas in 14 different places. Both tanks remain out of service over a year later.Investigators soon discovered that Cheniere grappled with problems affecting at least four of the five tanks at the terminal over the past decade. And officials at the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, known asPHMSA, have found the company to be less than forthcoming in the ongoing investigation, noting Cheniere’s “reticence to share [its] sense of what might have gone wrong.”The leaks are a red flag at a time of unprecedented expansion in the LNG industry, which promotes the fuel as not only safe but also a clean, more climate-friendly alternative to coal. The problem is that natural gas is made up mostly of methane, a greenhouse gas far more potent than carbon dioxide at warming the Earth’s atmosphere. Leaks erode the fuel’s climate advantage over coal. Cheniere spokesman Eben Burnham-Snyder said workers and the public were never in danger, and last year’s leaks were about one hundredth of a percent of the facility’s permitted greenhouse gas emissions for the year. The tanks, he added, meet “all federal and state safety requirements.” But some other LNG export projects — including Cheniere’s newest terminal in Corpus Christi, Texas — have opted to use more expensive tank designs that offer greater protection against leaks and fires.

Pipeline Protest Laws Spark First Amendment Concerns - LAWMAKERS IN TEXAS passed a bill last month that they say will speed the construction of some 11,000 miles of pipeline by 2050 that is needed to keep the state's oil boom going: Any protester who blocks or otherwise "interferes" with the construction of an oil and gas pipeline, transmission line or other "critical infrastructure" project will face up to 10 years in prison – the same sentence given to some sex offenders, triggermen in driveby shootings and other felonies. The bill is expected to be signed by Republican Gov. Greg Abbott. If he does, Texas will become the latest state to institute tough penalties aimed squarely at pipeline protesters. Such laws have been adopted in six states – Indiana, Louisiana, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota and Tennessee – and are pending in another seven, including Texas, according to the International Center for Not-for-Profit Law, which is tracking the measures. Opponents warn that the laws – by singling out a particular type of protest – mark a dangerous infringement on First Amendment protections of free speech and assembly. The measures, they contend, ultimately do little to accelerate pipeline construction that existing laws don't already accomplish, while needlessly instituting draconian penalties for activity that hardly presents the kind of harm inflicted by the violent crimes that come with similarly harsh sentences.

As Permian oil production turns lighter, price outlook darkens - (Reuters) - The United States may now be the world’s biggest crude producer, but the oil being produced in its prolific Permian basin is increasingly too light in density for domestic refiners or for exports, eroding prices for these orphan barrels. Over the past year, production from the Permian in West Texas and New Mexico has changed, with more super-light oil being extracted, as producers focus drilling in the western part of the basin. As those volumes increase and heavy crude supplies shrink, refiners are grappling with the mismatch in the density of oil they require and what the country produces, traders said. U.S. refineries, geared to mostly process heavier and medium crudes that are imported from neighboring producers, are struggling to blend the lighter oil efficiently, market sources said. That problem has grown more acute this year with heavier crude in short supply after U.S. sanctions on Venezuela, production declines in Mexico and transportation bottlenecks in Canada. “That’s a big structural problem that’s not going to go away anytime soon. We’ve got this mismatch in the country,” Jennifer Rowland, analyst with Edward Jones said. “We’ve got refineries that want heavy oil and producers that make light oil.” As weekly U.S. crude production jumped to over 12 million barrels per day (bpd) earlier this year, exports too soared to a record at 3.6 million bpd in week to Feb. 15, government data showed. However, the export market for super-light crude has so far been limited, traders said, because there are only a few condensate splitters, or simple refineries designed to handle light crude, in Europe, along with Asian petrochemical plants that could process the grades.

Kairos Aerospace conducting Permian-wide scan in search for methane leaks - Aircraft have been flying over Permian Basin energy operations for decades, mapping pipeline routes and checking for pipeline or tank battery leaks and emissions. Drones may be filling the skies these days, but one company sees a more efficient way to scan the Permian Basin for emissions. Kairos Aerospace is attaching pods to the Cessna airplanes that fly around the region. "We fly two or three planes daily in the Permian Basin; we're flying out of MidlandOdessa airports," Steve Deiker, Kairos chief executive officer and co-founder, said in a phone interview. He said Cessnas, the most common plane in the world and widely available for lease, can cover 50 to 100 square miles compared to the three or four miles a drone can cover, and the company's imaging spectrometer detects methane plumes from 3,000 feet at 120 miles per hour.  Deiker said one of his company's clients is Pioneer Natural Resources, which had Kairos survey its assets last year and will have the company do so again this year. In talking with customers or potential customers, he said "everyone we talk to wants to stop gas leaks – they're a safety hazard and they cost the operator. The challenge is knowing where to look and where to do maintenance." Rather than doing scans of specific assets for individual customers, Kairos has also launched a program to scan the entire Permian Basin for methane leaks and then sell that information to its customers. "It's more efficient to do the scan one time and then parcel that data out to operators – they're so intermingled," The company is active not only in the Permian Basin but in the Fayetteville play and is also active in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio, California and Colorado as well as Alberta, Ontario, Canada. Deiker said the company will begin operations next year in the Middle East and in North Africa. "It seems like there's a lot of interest from the industry, and as long as there's interest, we hope to provide data," he said.

Natural gas flaring hits record high in Q1 in U.S. Permian Basin (Reuters) - Natural gas flaring and venting in the top U.S. oil field reached an all-time high in the first quarter of the year due to the lack of pipelines, at a time of increased focus on environmental concerns about methane emissions. Producers burned or vented 661 million cubic feet per day (mcfd) in the Permian Basin of West Texas and eastern New Mexico, the field that has driven the U.S. to record oil production, according to a new report from Rystad Energy. The Permian’s first-quarter flaring and venting level more than doubles the production of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico’s most productive gas facility, Royal Dutch Shells Mars-Ursa complex, which produces about 260 to 270 mcfd of gas. A lack of pipelines and pipeline outages drove the first quarter numbers to a new record. “Its very persistent issue with infrastructure,” Natural gas that emerges alongside crude oil is often treated as a byproduct of oil drilling. Crude oil can move by pipe, train or truck, but natural gas can only move by pipeline, and construction has Permian has not kept up with output. The Permian is expected to flare more than 650 mcfd until the second half of the year when the Gulf Coast Express pipeline comes online, Abramov said. The Gulf Coast Express is designed to transport up to 2 billion cubic feet of natural gas and is scheduled begin operations in October. “It will be a temporary solution,” said Abramov. “We dont have any other major project coming online until late in 2020.” The Bakken shale field in North Dakota also continued to flare a high level in the first quarter, around 500 mcfd, according to Rystad. Together, the two oil fields on a yearly basis are burning and venting more than the gas demand in countries that include Hungary, Israel, Azerbaijan, Colombia and Romania, according to the report.

 Joint venture moves forward on Waha Hub to Agua Dulce natural gas pipeline -  A joint venture between the logistics arm of Marathon Petroleum and three other companies has entered to a deal to finance the construction of a new pipeline that will move natural gas from the Permian Basin of West Texas to the Agua Dulce hub near Corpus Christi. In a statement issued late Wednesday afternoon, Ohio-based MPLX LP, Austin pipeline operator WhiteWater Midstream and a joint venture between New York private equity firm Stonepeak Infrastructure Partners and Midland pipeline operator West Texas Gas announced a final investment decision on the Whistler Pipeline. "The decision to move forward with this project after securing sufficient commitments from shippers demonstrates our disciplined approach to investing," MPLX President Michael Hennigan said in a statement. "Whistler is expected to provide reliable residue gas transportation out of the Permian Basin, which is vital to our growing gas processing position and producers in the region." Spanning some 475 miles, the 42-inch pipeline will move 2 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day from the Waha Hub in the Permian Basin to the Agua Dulce Hub of South Texas. Expected to be in service by the third quarter of 2021, the Whistler Pipeline will connect with various processing facilities and pipelines along its route — including some that feed liquefied natural gas export terminals along the Texas Gulf Coast and pipelines to Mexico. A publicly traded subsidiary of refining company Marathon Petroleum, MPLX owns and operates more than 8,000 miles of pipelines in 17 states.

 U.S. hydrocarbon gas liquids production reaches 5 million barrels per day in 2018 -- U.S. production of hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGLs) reached 5 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2018, an increase of more than 0.5 million b/d (13%) over 2017 levels. HGLs accounted for over a quarter of total U.S. petroleum products output in 2018. The increase in HGL production since 2010 is largely a result of growing domestic natural gas production. In 2018, U.S. natural gas production, measured as gross withdrawals, averaged 101.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), a 38% increase over 2010 levels and the highest volume on record. As natural gas production has grown, an increasing share of HGLs are produced at natural gas processing plants, from about 75% in 2010 to nearly 90% in 2018. HGLs produced at natural gas processing plants are called natural gas plant liquids (NGPL), which include ethane, propane, normal butane, isobutane, and natural gasoline. A smaller share of HGLs are produced at petroleum refineries, which include refinery olefins and refinery liquefied petroleum gases (LPG). HGL production has been relatively flat at petroleum refineries since 2010, averaging about 630,000 b/d.Ethane and propane account for two-thirds of HGL production. Ethane production reached 1.71 million b/d in 2018, a 20% increase over 2017 levels. Ethane, the lightest NGPL, can (within some limits) be left in the processed natural gas stream at natural gas processing facilities—a process called ethane rejection—or it can be recovered from natural gas if ethane’s value is sufficient to cover the additional costs to produce and distribute the ethane to markets. Demand for ethane in 2018 was driven by increased use in the petrochemical sector, which converts ethane into ethylene for use in the production of plastics, resins, and fibers that go into the production of many consumer goods. Several new petrochemical crackers were commissioned in the United States in 2018. Chevron Phillips Chemicals and ExxonMobil each commissioned facilities that process an estimated 90,000 b/d of ethane as feedstock. Indorama Ventures commissioned a smaller petrochemical cracker estimated to consume 20,000 b/d of ethane as feedstock.International demand for ethane also increased, and new export infrastructure—the 50,000 b/d Utopia pipeline to Canada—has increased the capacity to ship ethane abroad.

Trump Tariff on Mexican Oil Would Hurt US Gulf refiners  -- U.S. oil refiners could get hit if crude is included in President Donald Trump’s threatened 5 percent tariff on Mexican goods. Trump announced the tariff in a Twitter post on Thursday, without giving details. Mexico accounts for about 10 percent of U.S. oil imports, with sophisticated refineries along the Gulf Coast geared to turn Mexico’s sludgy Maya crude into gasoline and diesel. A 5 percent tariff would add about $3 a barrel to the cost of Maya, which was worth about $58 on Friday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The profit margin for using Maya to make fuels is $6.86 a barrel, according to Oil Analytics data, so the increase in crude cost could slash that almost in half. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, dropped 2.3 percent at 10:32 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after earlier trading at the lowest since March 8. Trump’s tweet also rattled U.S. equities, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average sinking deeper into its longest streak of weekly losses since 2011. Worst-hit among refiners would be Royal Dutch Shell Plc’s Deer Park plant in Texas, which is a joint venture with Mexico’s state oil company Petroleos Mexicanos. Shell is the biggest importer of Mexican crude, bringing in 148,000 barrels a day in February, according to data from the Energy Information Administration. American companies Valero Energy Corp. and Chevron Corp. are the next-biggest purchasers, bringing in more than 200,000 barrels a day combined. “At the moment the gas cracks look favorable for the refiners” in the U.S. Gulf, said Wood MacKenzie analyst Ixchel Castro in Mexico City. “But an increase in the price of Maya would affect the margins of those who already have the oil contracted and other producers will try to take advantage to place their heavy crudes at a more competitive price.” There is some maneuver room for Pemex to send oil to Asia, but Mexico’s “contractual commitments limit this flexibility,” she added. The proposed tariffs come at a time when the international market for heavy crude is tightening amid sanctions on Venezuela and Iran, ‘‘making it difficult for investors to ascribe value to widening crude quality differentials,’’ Cowen Inc. analysts led by Jason Gabelman wrote in a note to clients. The impact of the tariffs on refiners will start to show up in third-quarter earnings, the analysts said. ‘‘PBF Energy Inc. and Valero are most exposed to these impacts, while Phillips 66 and Marathon Petroleum Corp.’s exposure is less pronounced due to their more diversified nature,’’ the analysts said. 

It’s Adapt Or Die For U.S. Refiners -- The downstream sector of the oil and gas market may be facing challenging times ahead as the demand picture for refined products such as diesel, gasoline, and petrochemicals is expected to shift, and as heavy crude oil supplies shrinks.The downstream sector in the oil industry, for those not in the know, include all the last-stage operations of the entire oil process—namely refineries and distributors, or generally speaking, anything post-pumping. While the downstream oil sector may be more insulated than the upstream sector (drilling, exploring) from the volatile prices that have plagued the industry as of late, it does face new challenges in the volatile crack spread and shifting landscape that has prompted refineries to adapt to survive.Unlike the upstream sector, the downstream sector derives profit from the spread between the price of crude oil and the price of the end product—such as gasoline—also known as the crack spread. This means that the downstream sector has had an easier time withstanding the recent crude oil price volatility than its upstream sibling. But that doesn’t mean it is without its challenges, and the downstream sector is now facing a whole new set of challenges that will cause downstream companies to adapt or die. The type of crude oil available plays a major role in determining refining profits. Refiners are equipped to deal with usually one specific grade of oil, and US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran and pipeline capacity constraints in Canada have resulted in decreased heavy crude supplies for US refineries that are equipped for the most part to refine heavy oil into a usable product, pushing up the price of the heavy grade and cutting into refining profits in the process. Reconfiguring a refinery to process a different grade of crude oil is no small matter and requires time and investment. And this current constraint on heavy crude may be somewhat temporary—something that doesn’t inspire refineries to sink money into reconfiguring. Many of the Gulf Coast refineries rely on these heavy crude supplies that are now dwindling—and the spread between what little there is of this heavy crude and the finished product are now at an all-time low, according to data from Oil Analytics Ltd, as cited by the Vancouver Sun. This lower spread is eating into refinery margins.

Building Boom Shows Biggest U.S. Oil Hub Hasn't Lost Its Allure -- America’s largest oil hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, is growing even as producers and traders look to move surging West Texas production to the coast for export. The U.S. petroleum industry is planning to build about 4.8 million barrels of storage capacity and as many as seven new pipelines to move oil to and from the hub. The growth is a reminder of Cushing’s significance as a key trading hub for U.S. and Canadian crudes despite booming exports, according to speakers at last week’s Crude Oil Quality Association meeting in Oklahoma City. Companies are building up Cushing, the delivery point for West Texas Intermediate futures, even as pricing in Houston is growing in importance for overseas markets. U.S crude exports reached 3.6 million barrels of crude per day during the week ended February 15, the highest since Washington ended restrictions in late 2015. Six pipeline projects have been planned to move about 2 million barrels a day of crude away from Cushing by the end of 2021, but it’s unlikely they’ll all get built, according to Hillary Stevenson, Genscape Inc’s director of oil market business development. A more conservative estimate would be close to 750,000 barrels a day of new outgoing capacity, she said. The majority of the new storage is from Keyera Energy Corp’s proposed 4.5 million-barrel Wildhorse terminal that is set to be complete by the middle of next year. Magellan Midstream Partners LP and Plains All American Pipeline LP will also add new storage, Stevenson added.

Iowa Supreme Court affirms Dakota Access pipeline project (AP) — The Iowa Supreme Court said Friday that a crude oil pipeline running across Iowa was legally permitted to be built dashing the hopes of a group of farmer landowners who wanted the pipeline moved off their land and an environmental group that wanted it shut down. A four-member majority of the court agreed with an Iowa court judge who in in February 2017 concluded the Iowa Utilities Board properly considered public benefits of the pipeline. A group of 14 landowners and the environmental group Sierra Club of Iowa sued the board and the company that built the pipeline claiming the pipeline carrying crude oil from North Dakota to Illinois provides no benefit to Iowans and forced taking of land to build it is unlawful. The decision will have far-reaching impact for landowners in Iowa because it opens the door for more developer driven condemnations, said Bill Hanigan, the attorney for the landowners. “This sets a precedent for wealthy developers seizing Iowa farmland for private ventures that bring no measurable benefit to Iowans,” The pipeline passes through 18 Iowa counties cutting diagonally across the state from the northwest to the southeast over about 340 miles. Construction began in June 2016 it began pumping oil in 2017. The court concluded that the board’s weighing of benefits and costs supports its determination that the pipeline serves the public convenience and necessity adequately enough to satisfy Iowa law. The court points out that Iowa consumes the equivalent of 85.2 million barrels of oil per year but produces no oil itself. Iowa ranks eighth in the country in per capita gasoline consumption, the court said. Since the pipeline is expected to lead to longer-term reduced prices on products using crude oil, the court concluded these public benefits justify the board’s decision. . The farmers also claimed the forced taking of private land through eminent domain for a privately owned pipeline that provides no real benefit to Iowans is unconstitutional. The majority of the court, however, said the use of eminent domain for a traditional public use such as an oil pipeline does not violate the Iowa Constitution or the United States Constitution simply because the pipeline passes through the state without taking on or letting off oil. 

Judges remove remaining barrier to Keystone XL construction - A 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals panel nullified a key barrier to the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline, arguing that it no longer applies after the Trump administration replaced a permit earlier this year. The court ruled Thursday night in favor of the Trump administration and TransCanada Corporation’s motion to dismiss. The ruling sided with arguments that the old permit for the pipeline, which was replaced by the Trump administration in March, is no longer valid and therefore the injunction associated with it also no longer applies. The action hands a victory to the Trump administration, which has long fought to finish construction of the international pipeline. It also opens up the door to restarting construction of the Keystone XL pipeline, which was halted in courts in the fall in part due to failure to properly account for the cumulative impacts of greenhouse gases from the construction. Trump in May signed a presidential permit as a way to jump-start the delayed construction of the 1,179-mile pipeline. The order superseded a March 2017 order. “For the avoidance of doubt, I hereby revoke that March 23, 2017, permit,” Trump wrote in the order. A White House spokesperson told The Hill at the time that the new permit "dispels any uncertainty."

Court throws book at BLM over fracking Chaco — High Country News - In the high desert in New Mexico’s Chaco region, a single cornfield can serve as a landmark here.  So it’s disconcerting to see truck after truck pass that same cornfield loaded down with water, bound for newly drilled oil wells that will be hydraulically fractured. Over a few days, the frackers shoot 1 million or more gallons of water — at least twice as much as that cornfield needs in a year — mixed with sand and chemicals into each of the hundreds of horizontal wells here. When the water bubbles back up, it is tainted with hydrocarbons, fracking chemicals and brine. This water gluttony now has the industry, and the federal agency charged with overseeing it, in trouble. In May, the 10th District U.S. Court of Appeals ruled that the Bureau of Land Management had failed to consider cumulative water use when it allowed drilling in the Chaco region, therefore violating federal environmental law. Yet the agency continues to issue new drilling permits, in defiance of the court’s decision. The court’s ruling concerns the BLM’s Farmington Field Office’s 2003 resource management plan for the San Juan Basin, a 10,000-square-mile geological bowl replete with natural gas, oil and coal. The plan gave the preliminary go-ahead to 9,942 natural gas wells, drilled vertically, primarily in the northeastern corner of the office’s jurisdiction, far from Chaco Culture National Historic Park. But several years after the plan came out, “fracking” — the horizontal drilling and multistage hydraulic fracturing used to extract oil and gas from shale formations — arrived in the San Juan Basin. Armed with bigger, shale-busting drill rigs, companies shifted their attention south, toward the oil-bearing Mancos Shale near Chaco Canyon and several Navajo communities. The BLM predicted that 3,960 new horizontal wells would be drilled in coming years, and in 2014, it launched a multi-year process to amend the old plan with regard to the shift in drilling techniques and geographical and geological targets. Environmentalists and community advocates begged the agency to hold off on issuing any new permits for horizontal drilling until the amendment was complete. But the Farmington office, which has a reputation for kowtowing to industry, paid no heed.  They’ve already leased out more than 50,000 acres and issued over 500 permits over the last decade. “If they (critics) think it’s illegal,” said David Mankiewicz, assistant field manager of the Farmington office, “then sue us and lose.”

Lawsuit claims oil boom imperils Carlsbad Caverns — U.S. land managers violated environmental laws and their own regulations when issuing dozens of leases to drill in one of the nation’s busiest oilfields, environmentalists claimed Monday in the latest lawsuit aimed at getting the federal government to consider the cumulative effects of oil and gas development. WildEarth Guardians filed its complaint Monday in U.S. District Court, claiming the oil boom in southeastern New Mexico is a threat to Carlsbad Caverns National Park and the surrounding area’s cave systems and desert slopes. The group also is concerned about deteriorating air quality, arguing that the Bureau of Land Management failed to weigh the effects of more leases with the surge in development across the Permian Basin. Energy companies have invested billions of dollars in the region in recent years. At a shareholders meeting last week, Exxon Mobil Chairman and CEO Darren Woods said production in the Permian Basin — which straddles West Texas and southeastern New Mexico — is growing faster than expected. The Bureau of Land Management has been working on an updated plan to guide development in the area, but environmentalists contend more than 200 leases awarded in late 2017 and 2018 could compromise that effort. “This case raises many issues, but fundamentally it’s all about climate,” said Jeremy Nichols, the climate and energy program director for WildEarth Guardians. Nichols said there has been no effort by the Trump administration to curb fossil fuel production or reduce emissions. Earlier this year, a judge blocked oil and gas drilling across almost 500 square miles in Wyoming, ruling that the government must consider climate change impacts more broadly as it leases public land for energy exploration. That followed a ruling in Montana that faulted the government for inadequate consideration of emissions when approving projects on federal land. .

Multiple Colorado communities pass drilling permit moratoriums   — Seven municipalities and one county scattered around the Denver-Julesburg Basin had passed some sort of drilling or permitting moratorium through Monday since the Colorado governor signed a law giving local governments greater control over oil and natural gas development, and that number may be higher by Tuesday. The latest community to halt development was Broomfield, where the city council voted last week to stop the processing or approval of applications for use by special review or operator agreements to allow oil and gas operations in Broomfield for the next six months. "I want to believe that the oil and gas companies want to produce this product and respect everybody that's around them," council member Mike Shelton said during the meeting. "I just haven't seen it that way. We definitely need a six-month moratorium if we're going to have companies operate under new regulations." Extraction Oil and Gas is the most active driller in Broomfield. It is currently developing up to 84 new wells within the city limits. However, Extraction reached an agreement with the city in 2017, and its plans are not affected by the state law or the moratorium. The Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, the state agency charged with overseeing oil and gas development, is currently in the process of updating its rulebook to align with Senate Bill 181. The bill grants greater authority to local governments in approving drilling permits and shifts the main aim of the COGCC from fostering energy development to protecting health and the environment. The process might take as long as two years. In May, COGCC commissioner Dan Gibbs said lawmakers never intended for regulators to stop issuing drilling permits while the rules are updated. In addition to Broomfield, the Front Range communities of Erie, Superior, Lafayette, Berthoud, Timnath, Boulder and Adams County, have all passed similar moratoriums. However, most of these moratoriums are being imposed outside of Weld County, where the vast majority of Denver-Julesburg oil and gas is produced and where most local leaders are supportive of the industry. Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield and Denver counties combined to produce an average of 36 MMcf/d in 2018, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics. In comparison, Weld County produced an average of 2.06 Bcf/d in 2018. Denver-Julesburg gas production is currently at 2.09 Bcf/d while oil production averages 512,000 b/d.

 E&P Companies' Costs Hit 10-Year Low in 2018 -The world’s total exploration and development (E&D) costs in 2018 was the lowest since 2009, according to a May 30 release from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The findings, based on analysis of 116 E&P companies’ annual reports, show that the companies added a net 10.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) to their proved reserves during 2018. Total E&D costs for these companies declined nine percent from 2017 when calculated as dollars per BOE of proved reserves added. The EIA found that global E&D costs increased in 2018 for the second year in a row, with changes in nominal year-over-year costs varying among regions. The oil and gas industry has experienced significant cost deflation since the onset of the downturn in 2014, therefore nominal costs incurred in different years may not be directly comparable. The costs provide an idea of the expenditures needed to add one barrel of proved reserves. The disparity between the timing of companies’ capital expenditures and the formal reporting of changes to their proved reserves is the reason why standard practice is to average results over several years. Analyzed this way, the 2018 E&D costs incurred at $15.20 per additional boe of proved reserves was the lowest it’s been since 2009.

 North Dakota tribe defends its rights to minerals from state (AP) — For nearly two centuries, the federal government has repeatedly assured a Native American tribe in North Dakota that it has rights to a reservation river and the issue stayed relatively quiet until oil companies figured out a way to drill under the waterway, which is now a man-made lake. With an estimated $100 million in oil royalties waiting in escrow to be claimed and future payments certain to come, the state has become more involved in seeking ownership rights. It successfully lobbied the U.S. Interior Department to suspend a last-minute Obama-era memo stating that mineral rights under the original Missouri River bed should belong to the Mandan, Hidatsa and Arikara Nation, which is also known as the Three Affiliated Tribes. The Interior Department put the minerals issue on hold last summer and ordered a review of the “underlying historical record.” The state maintains that it assumed ownership of the riverbed when North Dakota became a state in 1889, citing a constitutional principle known as the equal footing doctrine. The state’s immersion in the issue isn’t sitting well with tribal members, who say it’s between them and the Trump administration. “Now that there might be $100 million there, all of a sudden the state really cares, right?”The January 2017 memo by former Interior Department Solicitor Hilary Tompkins, an enrolled member of the Navajo Nation, is one of numerous federal declarations since the 1820s that have confirmed the tribes’ ownership of the river, which was altered when the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers built the Garrison Dam in the 1950s and created Lake Sakakawea.In her ruling, Tompkins cited both a 1936 opinion by the Interior Department that granted the tribes ownership of a Missouri River island and a wider-ranging 1979 conclusion by the Interior Board of Land Appeals that the entire bed of the river within the reservation boundaries didn’t pass to North Dakota’s control when it became a state. The state didn’t appeal the 1979 decision, which Tompkins said rejected the relevance of the equal footing doctrine.Tribal officials have recently taken to social media and penned op-eds a sking state leaders to come out in support of the tribes’ ownership rights, much like they did during the last legislative session regarding an oil and tax agreement with the tribes.

 2 brine spills reported in northern, western North Dakota - (AP) — The North Dakota Oil and Gas Division says two releases of brine were reported in northern and western parts of the state this week. One release happened Tuesday at the Fossum B 2R Water Injection Plant about four miles northwest of Maxbass, in Bottineau County. Scott Energy Partners reported that 33,600 gallons of brine were released due to a valve-piping connection leak. Cleanup is nearly complete. On Wednesday, Missouri Basin Well Service reported that 143,094 gallons of brine were released due to a fire caused by a lightning strike at the Hydro Clear SWD 1, about 16 miles northeast of Alexander in McKenzie County. Cleanup is getting underway after all hot spots were eleminated.

Horizontally drilled wells dominate U.S. tight formation production – EIA - Wells drilled horizontally into tight oil and shale gas formations continue to account for an increasing share of crude oil and natural gas production in the United States. In 2004, horizontal wells accounted for about 15% of U.S. crude oil production in tight oil formations. By the end of 2018, that percentage had increased to 96%. Similarly, horizontal wells made up about 14% of U.S. natural gas production in shale formations in 2004 and increased to 97% in 2018. Although horizontal wells have been the dominant source of production from U.S. shale gas and tight oil plays since 2008 and 2010, respectively, the number of horizontal wells did not surpass the number of vertical wells drilled in these plays until 2017. About 88,000 vertical wells in tight oil and shale gas plays in the United States still produced crude oil or natural gas at the end of 2018, but the volume produced by these wells was minor compared with the volume produced by horizontal wells. Many of these remaining vertical wells are considered marginal, or stripper, wells, which will continue to produce small volumes until they become uneconomic. Drilling horizontally, parallel to the geologic layers in tight formations, allows producers to access more of the oil- and natural gas-bearing rock than drilling vertically. This increased exposure allows additional hydraulic fracturing with greater water volumes and pounds of proppant (small, solid particles, usually sand or a manmade granular solid of similar size). The lateral length of horizontal wells has also increased, allowing for more exposure to oil- and natural gas-producing rock from a single well. Because tight formations have very low permeability, which prevents oil and gas from moving toward the well bore, using hydraulic fracturing to increase permeability, along with horizontal drilling, is necessary for oil and gas to be produced from these formations economically. The production history of horizontal versus vertical wells varies by play. For example, some tight formations in the Permian Basin have a long history of vertical well production. In 2004, vertical wells generated nearly all (96%) crude oil production from these formations. As late as 2014, vertical wells accounted for as much as half of Permian production, but by 2018, vertical wells accounted for only 7% of that production. By contrast, modern production in the Marcellus formation in the Appalachian Basin is almost entirely from horizontal drilling.

California's Gas Plant Pipeline Dwindles as Calpine Drops Mission Rock Application - Independent power producer Calpine has abandoned plans to build a new natural-gas plant in Southern California, swelling the ranks of recently canceled fossil fuel plants in the state.The company withdrew its application for the Mission Rock plant in a letter to the California Energy Commission dated May 21. That decision ended a years-long conflict over the permitting of the plant, a 255-megawatt combustion turbine facility planned on the banks of the Santa Clara River in Ventura County, northwest of Los Angeles. The Native American Chumash people opposed the plant as a disruption to a river environment that they consider sacred.The permitting battle also became a test case for new fossil fuel plant development as the Golden State moves toward its legislative goal of carbon-free electricity by 2045. Mission Rock joins a string of recent gas plant cancellations in California. The state still relied on natural-gas generation for 34 percent of its electricity in 2017, but new gas construction there has become a rarity as market and policy headwinds intensify.  Earlier this year, Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti opted to retire rather than replace three coastal gas plants serving the municipal utility. Last year, Glendale's city council paused a$500 million gas peaker project that its municipal utility staff wanted to build, choosing instead to solicit clean energy alternatives. CEC regulators objected in 2017 to the siting of NRG’s Puente Power Plant on the shores of Oxnard, prompting utility Southern California Edison to replace the gas project with aportfolio of energy storage facilities that were announced last month.

Clean-up response continues for Goleta crude oil spill - A Unified Command has been established to respond to a May 28 crude oil release that occurred at Pier 421 at Haskell’s Beach. The incident occurred while crews were working to plug an abandoned well, releasing an estimated 80 to 125 gallons of crude oil. Multiple assessments have not detected any sheen on the water, but ground crews have discovered oil and oily debris along the shoreline in the vicinity of Pier 421 and points east. A team of cleanup contractors are working to remove this material. Scientists continue to assess sensitive environmental sites in the area including snowy plover nesting sites near Coal Oil Point. No impacts to those areas have been observed. Crews from the Oiled Wildlife Care Network (OWCN) have also been activated and will be out assessing the area again tomorrow. At this time, ten birds have been collected. The public is asked to avoid any potentially-oiled wildlife, as approaching or trying to help them can do more harm than good. Anyone seeing oiled wildlife is asked to call the OWCN at 1-877-823-6926. All beaches will remain open throughout the cleanup process and there are no impacts to public health, safety or recreational fishing. However, the public is asked to refrain from entering areas where crews are working or cleanup efforts are taking place. Responding agencies include Santa Barbara County Fire, the United States Coast Guard, the California Department of Fish and Wildlife’s Office of Spill Prevention and Response, the City of Goleta, and the California State Lands Commission. Public volunteers are not currently needed.

Judge Rejects Oil Company's Request to Frack Off SoCal Coast   – Environmental groups have won another round in the battle over fracking in federal waters off the coast of California. Late Tuesday, a judge denied an oil company's request to frack in the Santa Barbara Channel.The company, called DCOR LLC, had asked for an exception to a moratorium put in place last December.That ruling forbids the Trump administration from approving permits for fracking or acidizing in the Pacific until a proper environmental review is done. Steve Jones, a spokesman for the Center for Biological Diversity, called the company's request "ridiculous.""DCOR had no good reason for wanting to do this, other than increase its profits at the cost of marine wildlife and coastal communities," he states.The ruling only applies to fracking and acidizing at existing platforms and would not prevent the Trump administration from issuing permits to expand drilling in federal waters – and the revised five-year plan for that is expected to come out very soon. DCOR maintained in court papers that the moratorium would hurt company finances, but the judge said the protection of marine life takes priority.The judge ruled that the federal government violated the Endangered Species Act when it approved the permits, citing concerns for the health of sea otters. Jones says the animals are bouncing back, but are very sensitive to the chemicals used in fracking for oil.

Trump administration's California fracking plan is 'dangerous,' environmental groups say - CNBC— The Trump administration’s plan to open up more than 1 million additional acres of public and private land in California to fracking is raising alarm in the environmental community.Environmentalists are challenging the proposal as “dangerous” to humans and iconic national parks nearby, including Yosemite and Sequoia-Kings Canyon National Parks.Last month, the U.S. Bureau of Land Management issued a draft supplemental environmental impact statement on the plan that includes using hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, to extract oil and gas from eight central counties in the state.“The risks posed to our national parks by further oil and gas development, particularly these iconic treasures that helped to inspire the modern-day conservation movement, is saddening to say the least,” Mark Rose, National Parks Conservation Association’s Sierra Nevada field representative, said in a statement. “Yosemite, Sequoia and Kings Canyon already experience some of the worst air quality within the park system, posing unprecedented threats to visitors and the natural resources that call these places home.”Rose further warns that allowing more “fracking near these treasured lands and the more than 1 million acres spanning from the Central Valley to the coast could be disastrous for our national parks, surrounding communities and other public lands.”California now ranks as the seventh largest state in terms of crude oil production, after being in third place until 2016. The state has already issued 121 permits for fracking so far this year, according to the California Department of Conservation. The BLM proposal includes additional oil and gas development in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Tulare and Ventura counties. The agency plans to hold hearings in California on its proposal starting May 21 and indicated the 45-day public comment period ends June 10.

US wildlife refuge to be opened up for oil drilling -- The US Interior Department is determined to sell oil leases for the first time this year in the ecologically sensitive but presumably petroleum-rich coastal plain of Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, a Trump administration official says."That lease sale will happen in 2019," Joe Balash, the assistant Interior secretary for lands and minerals management, told an oil industry conference.The decision marks a likely turning point in a decades-long battle between environmental groups and fossil energy companies over the Beaufort Sea coast of the wildlife refuge, home to caribou, polar bear and other Arctic wildlife east of Alaska's North Slope oil fields.The refuge had been off-limits to oil and gas drilling until the end of 2017, when Congress passed a tax overhaul that included a mandate for oil leasing there. The tax bill requires the Interior Department to hold a lease sale within four years, offering at least 400,000 acres to development within the coastal plain of ANWR, America's largest wildlife sanctuary.Interior's Bureau of Land Management issued a draft environmental impact statement last year and will follow up with a final report in about August.  Environmentalists have criticised the swiftness of the environmental review and one environmental leader predicted legal challenges. "If they really stick with that timeline, then they're likely going to be violating several environmental laws," said Adam Kolton, executive director of the Alaska Wilderness League. "This is being rushed faster than any area we've ever seen in the American Arctic and almost any area in the United States. It's about meeting a political clock."

 U.S. vows first oil lease sale in Alaska Arctic refuge this year (Reuters) - The U.S. Interior Department is determined to sell oil leases for the first time this year in the ecologically sensitive but presumably petroleum-rich coastal plain of Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, a Trump administration official said on Thursday. “That lease sale will happen in 2019,” Joe Balash, the assistant interior secretary for lands and minerals management, told an oil industry conference in Anchorage. The decision marks a likely turning point in a decades-long battle between environmental groups and fossil energy companies over the Beaufort Sea coast of the wildlife refuge, home to caribou, polar bear and other Arctic wildlife east of Alaska’s North Slope oil fields. The refuge had been off-limits to oil and gas drilling until the end of 2017, when Congress passed a tax overhaul that included a mandate for oil leasing there. The tax bill requires the Interior Department to hold a lease sale within four years, offering at least 400,000 acres for development within the coastal plain of ANWR, America’s largest wildlife sanctuary. The Interior Department’s Bureau of Land Management issued a draft environmental impact statement last year and will follow up with a final report this summer, likely by August, Balash said. A record of decision and notice of lease sale will follow, he said. Environmentalists have criticized the swiftness of the environmental review. One environmental leader predicted legal challenges. “If they really stick with that timeline, then they’re likely going to be violating several environmental laws,”

Alberta Imposes New Fracking Restrictions Near Dam after Quakes - In a significant development, the Alberta Energy Regulator has acknowledged that hydraulic fracturing operations can impose high risks to critical infrastructure such as dams, an issue of growing concern at British Columbia’s Site C mega-project on the Peace River. The regulator’s new regulations follow a wave of tremors set off by Canada’s oil and gas industry, as well as the release of major scientific papers documenting how fracking and other forms of fluid injection have caused devastating earthquakes. Such industry-triggered events, some as great as magnitude 5.7, have destroyed homes, caused landslides, and left taxpayers with millions of dollars of damage in Oklahoma, Korea and in China, where citizens have been killed. Last week, the industry-funded regulator issued an order restricting fracking activity near TransAlta’s Brazeau Dam located 55 kilometres southwest of the densely drilled Drayton Valley following a magnitude 4.3 earthquake in the region last March. The exact cause of that earthquake is not known, but the oil and gas industry has previously rocked the region with tremors caused by wastewater injection or by gas extraction, which causes rock to fracture and collapse. The regulator officially banned fracking within five kilometres of the dam site in the deep Duvernay formation, and within three kilometres of the dam site in the shallower formations above the Duvernay. It also imposed requirements that any fracking operator in the three-to-five-kilometre zone that causes a magnitude 1.0 earthquake must now report the event to the regulator and cease operations totally if it triggers quakes greater than magnitude 2.5. A regulator spokesperson told The Tyee in an email that the agency “issued the order as a precaution to limit the potential for an induced earthquake to happen near the Brazeau Dam. There has been no induced seismicity within 25 kilometres of the Brazeau dam and no reported impacts to the public, infrastructure, or the environment.”

Mexico Kicking Off $7.7B Refinery Project-- Mexico is kicking off the construction of its 150 billion peso ($7.7 billion) oil refinery amid a call by President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador for the country to become self-sufficient in energy production. The nation “depends too much on buying foreign gasoline,” the president, commonly known as AMLO, said at an event Sunday in Paraiso, Tabasco, where the seventh refinery will be built. The bidding process for the six phases of the refinery begins at the end of June. The leader also used the platform to rally the country after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened in the past week to slap a 5% tariff on all goods from Mexico if it doesn’t curb an unprecedented surge in migrants over the U.S. border. The Mexican peso slumped and was the worst performer among major global currencies in the past week. AMLO, who is sending a delegation to Washington this week, said Mexico wants to continue to be friends with the U.S. and reiterated his country’s good relations with its northern neighbor. However, he also said that Mexico “isn’t a colony of any foreign country.” “The president of Mexico wants to continue being a friend of President Donald Trump. But above everything, Mexicans are friends of the people of the United States,” AMLO said to cheers from crowds that had gathered at the Dos Bocas port following a critical tweet from Trump. “To them, I dedicate this message from Paraiso, Tabasco. We want nothing and nobody to separate our beautiful and sacred friendship.”

Venezuela’s oil exports drop 17% in May as sanctions kick in: data - Venezuelan PDVSA’s oil exports took another hit in May, following a deadline for customers to wind-down purchases in order to comply with U.S. sanctions, according to documents from the state-run company and Refinitiv Eikon data.  The energy firm’s exports of crude and refined products fell 17% in May from the previous month to 874,500 barrels per day (bpd), mainly due to difficulty in selling off barrels of upgraded crude that used to be bought by U.S. refiners. Venezuela has drained oil inventories since late January, when Washington imposed sanctions on PDVSA, to offset declining crude output, according to analysts. That allowed the firm to maintain exports around 1 million bpd for the following three months despite the measures. But some customers ended purchases of Venezuelan oil in late April to comply with sanctions, leaving PDVSA with an accumulation of upgraded oil and further reducing its portfolio of regular buyers, according to the reports and data. PDVSA did not respond to requests for comment. In May, PDVSA shipped a total of 33 cargoes of crude and fuel, mainly to Asian destinations. Exports to India fell over a third to 187,000 bpd while shipments to China remained around 450,000 bpd. Russia’s Rosneft, which takes PDVSA’s barrels as repayment of billions of dollars in loans to Venezuela, was the largest recipient of the OPEC member’s oil.

Tanker Sabotage: Venezuela’s Crisis Worsens - Tankers carrying gasoline and ships transporting food for Venezuela were sabotaged last week to prevent them from reaching Venezuela, Nicolas Madurosaid in a televised speech late on Monday.“Last week, sabotage was committed against ten tankers [with gasoline] to prevent them from reaching the Venezuelan coast,” Russian news outlet Sputnik quoted Maduro as saying.Amid political chaos and a raging economic crisis, Venezuela’s oil production has been crumbling, and most refineries and upgraders have stopped producing entirely, operating at zero capacity merely to keep the facilities from being damaged as its buyers look for alternate supplies in the face of US sanctions.Venezuela, the country sitting on top of the world’s largest crude oil reserves, is now producing less than 1 million bpd of oil - just over 750,000 bpd in April, compared to average production of 1.9 million bpd for 2017, as per OPEC’s secondary sources.  While Maduro and opposition leader Juan Guaidó, recognized as the country’s interim president by the U.S. and many other countries, vie for Venezuela’s presidency, the tightened U.S. sanctions on Venezuela that began in February are constraining Venezuela’s ability to produce, refine, and export oil. Venezuela’s gasoline production has slumped as the second-largest refinery in the country stopped operating, and gasoline import shortages have caused lines at gas stations.

Russia's May oil output hits 11-month low on dirty oil crisis (Reuters) - Russian oil output fell to 11.11 million barrels per day (bpd) in May, its lowest level since June 2018, from 11.23 million bpd in April, Energy Ministry data showed on Sunday. The production fall resulted mainly from the closure due to oil contamination of Russia’s Druzhba pipeline, which usually ships 1 million bpd, or 1 percent of global oil demand. As a result, Russian oil production during May fell by more than stipulated in a global deal with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The Energy Ministry data showed Russian oil pipeline exports in May fell to 4.209 million bpd, from 4.494 million bpd in April, as supplies via the Druzhba pipeline almost dried up, while seaborne exports jumped by 11.5 percent. Russia expects to clean up the pipeline, which was built in the 1960s and carries Russian oil to Europe, including Germany, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia, within six to eight months. June 2018 production was 11.06 million bpd. In tonnes, oil output reached 47.004 million in May versus 45.975 million in April, which is one day shorter than May. Reuters uses a tonnes/barrel ratio of 7.33. Russia’s largest oil producer Rosneft accounted for most of the cuts, with a month-on-month reduction of 2.9 percent in May, while domestic output at Russia’s No.2 oil producer Lukoil edged up 0.7 percent last and Gazprom Neft boosted its output by 4.7 percent. Both Lukoil and Gazprom Neft have their own exporting terminals in the Arctic. OPEC and other large oil-producing countries led by Russia agreed to curb output by a combined 1.2 million bpd for six months from Jan. 1, in order to balance the global oil market. Of this, Russia pledged to cut its production by 228,000 bpd from the deal baseline of the October 2018 level, to 11.18 million bpd. OPEC and Russia are excepted to gather in Vienna later this month or in early July to discuss what to do in the second half of the year. Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia has raised production in May, a Reuters survey found, but not by enough to compensate for lower Iranian exports that collapsed after the United States tightened the screw on Tehran. 

2018 Oil Production and Demand - Total world crude oil production increased by 1.213 million barrels per day (MMbpd) in 2018 to reach 75.78MMbpd, according to OPEC’s latest Annual Statistical Bulletin (ASB). The rise marked the highest annual growth since 2015, according to the ASB, which revealed that OPEC crude oil output declined year on year by 415,000 barrels per day, while crude production by non-OPEC countries grew by 1.628MMbpd. The top three crude oil producing countries last year were the United states with 10.96MMbpd, Russia with 10.53MMbpd and Saudi Arabia with 10.32MMbpd, according to the ASB. World oil demand grew by 1.5 percent year on year to average 98.73MMbpd in 2018, the ASB highlighted. The largest increases were recorded for the Asia and Pacific region, particularly China and India, and North America, the ASB revealed. OECD (organization for economic cooperation and development) oil demand was said to have grown “solidly” for the fourth consecutive year in 2018, while oil demand in OPEC member countries declined “slightly” after increasing during 2017. Oil demand growth is expected to slow significantly from next year, according to McKinsey Energy Insights’ (MEI) Global Energy Perspective 2019 Reference Case, which was launched in February. Global oil demand growth is projected to slow to 0.7 percent per year from 2020 to 2030, before dropping to -0.2 percent per year from 2030 to 2040 and -0.6 percent per year from 2040 to 2050, the Reference Case highlights. According to Rystad Energy’s long term-outlook released in January, oil demand will grow steadily in the 2020s and peak in the late 2030s.

Is There Really a Global Shortage of Crude? - There's certainly no shortage of light crude, but the picture is very different for the medium and heavies. (Bloomberg) -- From Russia to Saudi Arabia, Iran to Venezuela, the list of crude oil supplies being curtailed or disrupted around the world is growing longer by the month. This story examines whether the market’s biggest supply shifts are actually netting out into a global shortage of oil or not. The answer is a complex one, hinging on the type of crude in question and the time-frames selected. The simplest supply measure is all the oil pulled out of the ground globally. On this view it does indeed look like global production has fallen sharply over the past six months, as the OPEC+ group of countries slashed supply, while the U.S. has toughened sanctions on the oil industries of Iran and Venezuela. Figures published by the Energy Intelligence Group show that global oil production was 96.79 million barrels a day in April. That is a drop of more than 2 million barrels a day since the end of last year. But just a slightly a longer time-frame gives a different picture. If you compare April with a year earlier, production is actually up, by 570,000 barrels a day -- pretty much in line with oil demand growth. While such a broad look at global oil production data offers some insight, it misses a lot of important detail. Most of the new refineries built in Asia and the Middle East in recent years were designed to run on a diet of heavy, sour crudes. These barrels feature a high proportion of large hydrocarbon molecules that need to be broken down into smaller ones to make high-value transport fuels. They also tend to contain relatively high concentrations of sulfur that have to be removed to meet anti-pollution regulations. But that’s not where the growth in oil supply has been. Booming production from the U.S. Permian Basin has driven a surge in the supply of light crude, which was up year-on-year by more than 1.8 million barrels a day in April. By contrast, the increase since the end of 2018 has been much smaller, at 160,000 barrels a day. The picture for heavy crude is completely different. Slumping output from Venezuela, where years of mismanagement and under-investment have been compounded by the impact of U.S. sanctions on the state oil company, has driven a sharp drop in global supply, both year-on-year and year-to-date. The impact of Venezuela’s difficulties has been exacerbated by continuing declines in Mexico’s oil production, which was previously expected to be reversed this year. An uptick in Canadian output, which had been curtailed by government-imposed restrictions in the first months of this year, has done little to offset the recent declines in heavy oil production elsewhere. And then there’s that big bit in the middle of the range -- medium crude -- that’s dominated by Russia and Saudi Arabia and includes most of the other Persian Gulf producers. 

 Fracking the World: Despite Climate Risks, Fracking Is Going Global – DeSmog - The U.S. exported a record 3.6 million barrels per day of oil in February. This oil is the result of the American fracking boom — and as a report from Oil Change International recently noted — its continued growth is undermining global efforts to limit climate change. The Energy Information Administration predicts U.S. oil production will increase again in 2019 to record levels, largely driven by fracking in the Permian shale in Texas and New Mexico.And the U.S. is not alone in trying to maximize oil and gas production. Despite the financial failures of the U.S. fracking industry, international efforts to duplicate the American fracking story are ramping up across the globe.  The CEO of Saudi Arabian state oil company Aramco recently dismissed the idea that global demand for oil will decrease anytime soon and urged the oil industry to “push back on exaggerated theories like peak oil demand.”But Saudi Aramco also is gearing up for a shopping spree of natural gas assets, including big investments in the U.S., andincreasing gas production via fracking in its own shale fields. Aramco is deeply invested in keeping the world hungry for more oil and gas.Khalid al Falih, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, told the Financial Times, “Going forward the world is going to be Saudi Aramco’s playground.” But not if other countries frack there first. As a major importer of oil and natural gas, it is no surprise that China is trying to exploit its own shale formations, which are rich with oil and gas. China is estimated to have the largest shale gas reserves of any country. However, China’s shale formations present different challenges than those in the U.S., including gas deposits at significantly greater depths.China's national oil and gas companies are making gains in fracking and lowering costs to produce gas but are still only producing a small fraction of the gas of U.S. frackers. In addition to technical challenges, China also faces local opposition in regions where fracking is occurring. One county in China's Sichuan province recently suspended fracking efforts after an earthquake killed two people. The event resulted in massive public protests against fracking, which protesters blame for the earthquakes.

BP to pay billions for suspicious Senegal gas deal -- BP has agreed to pay around $10bn (£8bn) to a businessman involved in a suspicious energy deal. The energy giant bought Frank Timis' stake in a gas field off the coast of Senegal for $250 million in 2017. But documents obtained by BBC Panorama and Africa Eye reveal that BP will also pay his company between $9bn and $12bn in royalties. Both BP and Mr Timis deny any wrongdoing. Read the full statement from Mr Timis here.

World's Largest LNG Producer Set to Change - Australia is poised to dethrone Qatar as the world’s largest producer of liquefied natural gas (LNG) next year.That’s according to Rystad Energy, which forecasts that Australia will stay in top spot until Qatar eventually reclaims the position in 2024.“Over the next two years, pending approvals on up to seven Australian integrated LNG projects could challenge Qatar as the country with the largest sanctioned LNG volumes from integrated projects during that period,” Readul Islam, a research analyst at Rystad Energy’s upstream team, said in a company statement.“However, though sanctioned Australian LNG supply volumes could run neck and neck with Qatar over the next couple of years, Qatari LNG production should retake the top producer crown midway through the next decade,” he added.Rystad highlighted that, following the 2017 lifting of Qatar’s North Field moratorium, Qatar Petroleum has revealed a plan for four additional production facilities to supply 33 million tons per annum of LNG. When these expansion trains reach plateau rates during the mid-2020s, Qatar will regain the top LNG producer spot, according to Rystad Energy.Islam said the jostling for the top LNG producer crown “probably is of cursory interest to oilfield service specialists”.“If we add proposed onshore LNG projects in Papua New Guinea to the tally from Australia, a $40 billion wave of LNG projects will wash over the region over the next couple of years. Service players won’t want to miss a slice of this world-class pie,” he stated.According to a recent report published by DNV GL, the majority of LNG-focused oil and gas professionals believe several new LNG infrastructure projects will need to be initiated this year to ensure supply can meet demand after 2025.The report also revealed that more than two thirds of these professionals think price uncertainty is limiting investment in LNG megaprojects and that more than a third expect the United States to experience the greatest growth in LNG exports over the next three years. China is the country expected to have the greatest growth in LNG imports over the next three years, according to the report. Last month Rystad Energy revealed that the escalation of the trade war between the United States and China could jeopardize several LNG mega projects awaiting final approval.

The global boom in natural gas demand is about to slow, the International Energy Agency says - The world’s appetite for natural gas grew at the fastest pace since 2010 last year, but that blockbuster growth is shifting into lower gear, according to the International Energy Agency. Global demand for natural gas surged by 4.6% in 2018, driven by strong economic growth, the transition away from coal-fired electric power and weather-related demand. Gas accounted for nearly half of the world’s growth in energy demand, with most of the higher consumption coming from China and the United States, says IEA. “In 2018, natural gas played a major role in a remarkable year for energy. Global energy consumption rose at its fastest pace this decade, with natural gas accounting for 45% of the increase,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in the agency’s annual natural gas report. However, the Paris-based adviser to energy-importing nations says that extraordinary growth rate is not sustainable. Over the next five years, IEA expects gas demand to increase by 1.6% per year on average, marking a return to levels seen before 2017, when growth suddenly gained steam. IEA chalks up the slowdown to forecasts for weaker economic growth, a return to average weather conditions and diminishing opportunities to switch from coal to gas in electric power plants. Adoption of natural gas is the biggest contributor to the steady decline of coal-fired power in the U.S. energy mix. China, the world’s second largest economy, is following a similar path as Beijing seeks to quickly improve the nation’s air quality. IEA forecasts China will account for 40% of global gas demand growth during the next five years. Yet the slowdown will be pronounced in the Middle Kingdom. After surging by 14.5% in 2017 and 18.1% in 2018, Chinese gas consumption is projected to rise by just 8% per year through 2024, owing largely to slower economic growth. Other parts of the world that will underpin future growth include the U.S., Middle East and North Africa — all of which produce cheap, abundant supplies that can be consumed at home by industry and power plants.

Hedge funds accelerate oil sales as economy worsens (Reuters) - Hedge fund managers have stepped up their sales of crude oil and refined fuels amid growing concerns about the outlook for the world economy and oil consumption. Hedge funds and other money managers sold 122 million barrels in the six major petroleum futures and options contracts during the week to May 28, the heaviest one-week selling since October 2018. Fund managers sold Brent (41 million barrels), NYMEX and ICE West Texas Intermediate (38 million barrels), U.S. gasoline (11 million barrels), U.S. heating oil (12 million barrels) and European gasoil (20 million barrels). Funds have now sold 186 million barrels of petroleum futures and options over the five weeks since April 23, after buying 609 million barrels over the previous 15 weeks since Jan. 8. In retrospect, April 23 proved to be an important turning point when funds switched from accumulating bullish long positions and initiated a new cycle of short sales. In its early stages, the shift from accumulation to liquidation was probably driven mostly by concerns the market had become overstretched and was due a correction (https://tmsnrt.rs/2WHH9PE ). By April 23, hedge fund managers held almost nine bullish long positions for every bearish short one, up from a ratio of less than 2:1 at the start of the year. In recent years, large concentrations of long or short positions have usually presaged a reversal in the price trend, and hedge fund positions had become very lopsided by April. More recently, however, the pace of short-selling has accelerated as portfolio managers became more concerned about a possible slowdown in the global economy and oil consumption growth. Liquidation of previous long positions has now been joined by the initiation of fresh shorts as portfolio managers anticipate a deeper pullback in prices. 

 Oil Flirts with Bear Market-- Oil extended declines -- and was close to bear-market territory -- as an increasingly aggressive U.S. trade policy fueled fears the world could be heading for a significant economic slowdown. Futures in New York fell as much as 2.6% after slumping 5.5% Friday. China struck a combative tone in a white paper released Sunday, blaming the U.S. for the collapse in trade talks and saying it won’t be pressured into concessions. That came after the White House rattled markets Friday by announcing tariffs on Mexican goods and terminating India’s designation as a developing nation, stopping it from exporting products to the U.S. without duties. Oil has now fallen almost 20% from a high in late April, wiping out about half of its rally in the earlier part of the year, mainly due to the increasingly fraught global trade environment. While a tense situation in the Middle East has been supporting prices somewhat, the White House indicated over the weekend that it would be willing to negotiate with Iran without preconditions. Meanwhile, whether Russia keeps cooperating with Saudi Arabia on production cuts is shaping up as an important price driver over the next few months. "The oil market continues to trade with extremely high beta to risk as concerns over a global slowdown escalate,”  West Texas Intermediate crude for July dropped 42 cents, or 0.8%, to $53.08 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 7:25 a.m. in London after falling as much as $1.39 earlier. The contract is now down 19.9% from its closing high on April 23. If it finishes more than 20% lower than the April peak it will officially be in a bear market. Brent for August settlement fell 79 cents, or 1.3%, to $61.20 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange. The July contract closed 3.6% lower at $64.49 before expiring on Friday. The global benchmark crude was trading at a premium of $8.02 to WTI. There could be a recession in nine months if the U.S. imposes 25% tariffs on an additional $300 billion of Chinese exports and Beijing retaliates, according to Morgan Stanley. Investors may still be underestimating the risks to the global economy from the trade war, Chetan Ahya, chief economist, wrote in a note released Sunday. “There’s an increased likelihood the U.S. slaps tariffs or implements measures to restrict trade against any countries it sees as engaging in unfair practices, such as China, Mexico and India,” ”Even Japan could be a target.”

Oil prices extend drop as trade wars stoke global economic fears - Oil prices fell more than 1% on Monday, extending losses of over 3% from Friday, when crude markets racked up their biggest monthly losses in six months amid stalling demand and as trade wars fanned fears of a global economic slowdown. Front-month Brent crude futures were at $61.16 at 0109 GMT. That was 83 cents, or 1.3%, below Friday’s close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $52.88 per barrel, down 62 cents, or 1.2% from its last settlement. The drops followed price slumps of more than 3% on Friday, which made May the worst-performing month for crude futures since last November. “Oil prices slid on fresh trade worries after U.S. President Donald Trump stoked global trade tensions by threatening tariffs on Mexico, which is one of the largest U.S. trade partners and a major supplier of crude oil, ” said Mithun Fernando, investment analyst at Australia’s Rivkin Securities, in a note on Monday. Edward Moya, senior market analyst at futures brokerage OANDA in New York, said last month’s crude oil price fall of more than 10% was “the worst May performance in seven years as the escalation of the global trade war saw the global growth outlook crumble.” Moya warned “geopolitical risks remain in place” and added that “oil remains vulnerable” because of a weakening demand outlook for crude. “The U.S.-China feud remains most critical to the global growth outlook, but the addition of trade tensions between the U.S. and Mexico raised the slower demand picture for the Americas, ” he said. Barclays bank said in a note published last Friday that U.S. March oil consumption “declined significantly year-on-year for the first time since September 2017 ...(as) petroleum demand fell almost 370,000 barrels per day (bpd) year-on-year on weak consumption across the barrel.”

  Oil falls as trade worries mount, Saudi comments limit losses - (Reuters) - Oil fell on Monday as U.S. trade disputes with Mexico and China deepened concerns about weakening global crude demand, while a slump in equities also weighed on crude futures. Brent crude futures settled at $61.28 a barrel, losing 71 cents, or 1.2%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude ended 25 cents, or 0.5%, lower at $53.25 a barrel. Mexico said it would reject a U.S. idea to take in Central American asylum seekers if it is raised at talks this week with U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration, which is threatening the tariffs over immigration concerns. The possibility of tariffs on Mexico comes on top of a drawn-out trade war between the United States and China that has bruised oil prices. “Focus has shifted from the supply to the demand side as a U.S.-China trade agreement has proven elusive and as worries over the debilitating effects of tariffs on global economic growth have now shifted to Mexico,” Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note. A downturn on Wall Street, which crude prices sometimes follow, worsened losses in oil futures, analysts said. Comments from Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de facto leader, indicating that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies would continue working towards oil market stability in the second half of the year, helped limit Monday’s loses. “We will do what is needed to sustain market stability beyond June. To me, that means drawing down inventories from their currently elevated levels,” Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih was quoted as saying by the Saudi-owned Arab News newspaper. Brent futures have dropped almost 20% from their 2018 peak as global supplies tighten following output curbs by OPEC and Russia, as well as a reduction in Iranian and Venezuelan exports due to U.S. sanctions. The recent selloff in crude will likely solidify Saudi Arabia’s intention to maintain output reductions, analysts said.

Oil prices fall as energy demand set to take a hit amid economic slowdown - Oil prices fell on Tuesday as an economic slowdown starts to dent energy demand, but markets won some support after Saudi Arabia said a consensus was emerging with other producers about extending supply cuts. Front-month Brent crude futures were at $60.97 at 0648 GMT. That was 31 cents, or 0.5%, below last session’s close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $53.05 per barrel, down 20 cents, or 0.4%, from their last settlement. Oil futures are around 20% below 2019 peaks reached in late April, with May posting the sharpest monthly declines since November. Other energy prices, like coal and gas, are also being hit hard by the downturn. That has come as financial traders sell out of energy markets amid growing concerns about the outlook for the world economy amid the trade war between the United States and China. “The prolonged trade war has sparked fears of a global economic slowdown as well as weaker oil demand,” tanker brokerage Eastport said on Tuesday. To prevent oversupply and prop up the market, the Middle East dominated producer club of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), together with some allies including Russia, has been withholding supply since the start of the year to prop up the market. The group plans to decide later this month or in early July whether to continue withholding supply. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Monday that a consensus was emerging among producers to continue working “to sustain market stability” in the second-half of the year. Producers are concerned that the economic slowdown will reduce fuel consumption.

Oil, gas and coal markets pummeled by economic slowdown - (Reuters) - Energy markets are being battered by spreading concerns that an economic slowdown will hit consumption of oil, natural gas and coal. Oil, the world’s most used fuel, has seen prices fall by 20% from their 2019 peak in late April, with Brent crude oil futures threatening to fall below $60 per barrel for the first time since January. Meanwhile, prices for thermal coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG), mostly used in power generation, have dropped to multi-year lows amid tepid demand. The slumps come amid an economic slowdown and escalating global trade tensions, especially between the United States and China. “Fear of global economic growth slowing,” said Peter Kiernan, lead energy analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), “afflicting the entire energy complex with worries that demand growth will be bearish this year.” Kiernan added that the EIU had downgraded its forecast for global economic growth to 2.6% in 2019, down from 2.7%. At the start of the year, most forecasts for world growth were still at or above 3%. Some economists are gloomier still. “Calls in the market foreseeing a global recession have not helped sentiment,” ANZ bank said in a note on Tuesday. “The continued escalation in trade tensions and broad-based fall in manufacturing...suggest that the downside risks to growth are becoming more prominent,” said U.S. bank Morgan Stanley.

WTI Tumbles After API Reports Major Inventory Builds -Oil managed gains today after 4 straight days lower as Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said he’s committed to doing whatever it takes to stabilize markets.“Underpinned by rising trade tensions, the global economic picture has deteriorated,” said analysts at Citigroup Inc. led by Ed Morse. “Yet this macro pessimism masks tangible bullish oil market fundamentals.” API

• Crude +3.55mm (-1.8mm exp)
• Cushing +1.408mm (-800k exp)
• Gasoline +2.696mm (+500k exp)
• Distillates +6.314mm (+600k exp)

After last week's small draw, expectations were for another larger crude draw this week, but API shocked markets with a 3.55mm build (along with builds across all Cushing and a huge distillates build)... "It’s pretty clear that demand concerns still have the market at its grip," said Gene McGillian, manager of market research at Tradition Energy. "But, maybe some of these demand fears may have extended itself. Refinery utilization jumped back above 90 percent and WTI should pick up again."WTI managed some gains on the day, hovering around $53.50 ahead of the API print but tumbled after the data hit

Oil Crashes Into Bear Market After Biggest Stock Build In 30 Years - Oil prices collapsed into a bear market today (down 22% from highs) after a surprise build across all products produced the biggest aggregate inventory build since 1990... “It’s the perfect storm, in a way, of increased supply coupled with perceptions of slowing demand growth," said Marshall Steeves, energy markets analyst at Informa Economics in New York. WTI tested down to a $50 handle (before ramping into the close) - the lowest since January 9th... Brent fell back below $60 for first time since Jan... Both down around 22% from recent highs, which stocks are summarily ignoring for now...

Oil sinks 4% as US crude stockpiles unexpectedly surge by 6.8 million barrels - Oil prices plunged 4% on Wednesday, with futures falling to their lowest since January, after the U.S. government reported an unexpected surge in the nation’s crude stockpiles. U.S. commercial crude inventories jumped by 6.8 million barrels in the week through May 31, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported. Stockpiles jumped despite refineries increasing activity and as U.S. crude imports jumped by more than 1 million barrels per day. That trumped an earlier reading from the American Petroleum Institute that suggested stockpiles rose by 3.5 million barrels in the week. Analysts’ had expected stocks to drop by 849,000 barrels, according to a Reuters poll. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell to a session low of $50.66 after the report, the lowest level since Jan. 15. WTI was down $2.19, or 4.1%, at $51.29 a barrel around 12:25 p.m. ET (1625 GMT). Brent futures sank as low as $59.45, also its lowest since mid-January. Brent was last down $1.78, or 2.9%, at $60.19 a barrel. U.S. gasoline inventories also rose by 3.2 million barrels during the week. Stockpiles of distillates, including diesel and home heating fuel, jumped by 4.6 million barrels. Meanwhile, weekly U.S. oil production ticked up to an all-time high 12.4 million bpd, according to a preliminary reading from EIA. “You had that record U.S. production again and that surge in imports really just overwhelmed the report, and it came in the face of refinery runs ticking up,” said John Kilduff, founding partner at energy hedge fund Again Capital. “Obviously it’s more than enough to satisfy demand by a lot and just makes for a really bearish report across the board.” Oil prices have fallen sharply on concerns about slowing demand, but won some respite on Tuesday after a global stock market rally on hopes the Federal Reserve may trim interest rates. Equities extended gains on Wednesday. The oil market has been weighed down by concerns about slowing global growth due to the U.S.-China trade war and President Donald Trump’s threats last week to place tariffs on Mexican imports.

Lower oil prices start to rebalance the market- Kemp (Reuters) - Lower oil prices are starting to rebalance the oil market by slowing the rise in U.S. crude output and encouraging Saudi Arabia and its allies to extend production cuts through the end of 2019. U.S. crude production rose 241,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 11.905 million bpd in March from February, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (“Petroleum Supply Monthly”, EIA, May 2019).U.S. crude output during the first three months of the year was up 1.575 million bpd compared with the same period a year earlier, but the growth rate has slowed from 1.920 million bpd in the third quarter of 2018. Onshore production from the Lower 48 states excluding federal waters in the Gulf of Mexico was up 1.425 million bpd year-on-year in the first quarter, down from an increase of 1.817 million bpd in the third quarter of 2018. Falling prices since the start of the fourth quarter, renewed since the end of April, have slowed the rate of new drilling and fresh well completions in the major shale plays (https://tmsnrt.rs/2QSbxBL). The number of rigs drilling for oil fell to just 800 at the end of May, down by almost 10 percent from a current-cycle peak of 888 in November 2018, according to oilfield services company Baker Hughes.  Experience suggests changes in wellhead prices filter through to changes in the number of rigs drilling for oil with a lag of 3-4 months, and to changes in production with a lag of around 9-12 months. The full impact of recent price declines will therefore continue to filter through into slower production growth in the second half of 2019 and into the first part of 2020.  Lower prices are also pushing Saudi Arabia and its allies within the expanded OPEC+ group of oil exporting countries to extend their current production cuts for the second half of the year. The combination of slower supply growth from U.S. shale and continued restraint by Saudi Arabia and its allies should eliminate the prospective oversupply of oil later in 2019 and 2020.

A trade war deal is what the oil market needs to break out of bear market territory, RBC’s Helima Croft says - RBC Capital Markets’ Helima Croft blames the U.S.-China trade war for oil’s drop into bear market territory. According to the firm’s global head of commodity research, bullish sentiment around crude has been damaged by global growth fears sparked by tensions between Washington and Beijing. “What is the demand driver for oil? It’s China. There is a real fear of a slump in Chinese oil demand growth,” she told CNBC’s “Futures Now ” on Thursday. “One of the things that has kept this market tight this year has been really high Chinese oil imports.” Without a sign that President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are closing in on a resolution, she contends the commodity will continue to struggle. Croft, a CNBC contributor, contends Trump’s May 5 tweet that indicated a trade deal wasn’t close anymore stopped the oil rally cold. “Oil was moving higher, you know, the first part of May, and then you had the trade war resume,” she added. Over the past month WTI oil is off 15%. International benchmark Brent is also struggling, down 13% in that time frame. Croft points out there’s a second issue adding to the bearishness surrounding oil: a large U.S. inventory build. “This is a counter-seasonal build. It’s leading to concern of U.S. production being higher than anticipated,” she said. “That’s a second whammy for the oil market right now.” However, Croft predicts the bearishness could turn on a dime on positive news of a trade deal.

Oil pops 3%, rallying with stocks after report US may delay hitting Mexico with tariffs - Oil futures turned sharply higher heading into Thursday’s settlement, tracking a rally in equities on a report that the Trump administration may delay tariffs on Mexican imports. Crude futures traded mostly flat throughout Thursday’s session as sentiment remained weak amid fresh signs of a stalling global economy and ongoing concerns about growth in supply. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled 91 cents higher at $52.51 per barrel, posting a 1.8% gain on the day. WTI was last trading up $1.50, or 2.9%, at $53.18 after the settlement. International benchmark Brent crude futures rose $1.04, or 1.7%, at $61.67 a barrel on Thursday. Brent also extended gains after its settlement and was last up $1.67, or 2.8%, at $62.30 per barrel. On Wednesday, the two benchmarks hit their lowest levels since mid-January at $59.45 and $50.60, respectively, after U.S. crude production hit a new record high and stockpiles hit their highest since July 2017. Signs of slowing global economic activity have increased in recent months, fueled by trade tensions between the United States and China, the world’s top two energy consumers. “Worries about demand destruction are really driving prices lower,” said Gene McGillian, vice president of market research at Tradition Energy. U.S. President Donald Trump added to the market’s worries after threatening last week to slap tariffs on Mexican goods unless the nation clamps down on illegal border crossings into the U.S. Mexico is a major source of crude oil to U.S. refineries and the biggest purchaser of American gasoline exports. Oil futures “got hit earlier in the week in anticipation of the Mexican tariffs being implemented and now it’s kind of reversing that stance,” said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. “The ongoing friction between the U.S. and China, the U.S. and Mexico and the U.S. and others on the trade front is really having a negative impact on the sentiment for economic growth around the world, which would lead to a reduction in the rate of growth of oil demand.”

 US oil settles up 2.7% at $53.99 per barrel as Saudi Arabia signals OPEC deal extension - Oil prices rose on Friday, climbing further from five-month lows hit this week, after Saudi Arabia said OPEC was close to agreeing to extend an output production cut beyond June. Brent crude futures rose 2.7% to $63.33 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 2.7% to $53.99 a barrel. Both benchmarks were on track for a third weekly decline. On Wednesday they hit their lowest since January. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih told a conference in Russia that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies should extend oil production cuts. He said that while OPEC was close to agreement, more talks were needed with non-OPEC countries that were part of the deal to reduce output by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd), which runs out at the end of this month. Supply has also been limited by U.S. sanctions on oil exports from Venezuela and Iran. On Thursday, Washington tightened pressure on Venezuela’s state-owned oil company by making clear that exports of diluents by international shippers could be subject to sanctions. Demand sentiment remains weak as investors worry about a stalling global economy and an intensifying trade war between the United States and China. The United States has also threatened tariffs on goods from major trading partner Mexico. U.S. President Donald Trump vowed that tariffs of 5% will be imposed on all Mexican exports to the United States on Monday if Mexico does not step up efforts to stem an increase in migrants heading for the U.S. border. U.S. and Mexican negotiators resumed migration talks on Friday. Marc Short, chief of staff to U.S. Vice President Mike Pence, said the administration planned to move forward with a legal notification of its planned 5% tariff. But some market participants were skeptical the tariffs would go into effect on Monday.

Oil rises nearly 3% as Saudi signals OPEC deal extension, stocks rally (Reuters) - Oil prices rose nearly 3% on Friday, climbing further from five-month lows hit this week, after Saudi Arabia said OPEC was close to agreeing to extend an output production cut beyond June and as Wall Street rallied. Brent crude futures gained $1.62, or 2.6%, to settle at $63.29 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude ended at $53.99 a barrel, up $1.40, or 2.7%. Brent posted its third weekly decline, dropping nearly 2%, while WTI gained about 1% for the week. On Wednesday both benchmarks hit their lowest since January. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih told a conference in Russia that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies should extend oil production cuts. He said that while OPEC was close to agreement, more talks were needed with non-OPEC countries that were part of the deal to reduce output by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd), which runs out at the end of this month. Supply has also been limited by U.S. sanctions on oil exports from Venezuela and Iran. On Thursday, Washington tightened pressure on Venezuela’s state-owned oil company by making clear that exports of diluents by international shippers could be subject to sanctions. In the United States, energy firms this week reduced the oil rig count to the lowest since February 2018. Drillers cut 11 rigs in the biggest weekly decline since April, bringing the total count down to 789, General Electric Co’s Baker Hughes energy services firm said. Oil prices were also supported by a rise in equity markets after a sharp slowdown in U.S. job growth raised hopes of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

Oil Prices End Tough Week on Strong Note - At the end of a week when crude oil officially entered a bear market, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent benchmarks posted strong day-on-day increases.  The July WTI contract price gained $1.40 to settle at $53.99 per barrel. The WTI traded within a range from $52.62 to $54.32. Compared to the May 31 settlement, the WTI is up nearly one percent for the week. Brent crude oil for August delivery also ended the day higher. The benchmark settled at $63.29 per barrel, reflecting a $1.62 gain for the day. Week-on-week, the Brent is up 2.1 percent.As Bloomberg reported earlier in the day, oil traders were buoyed by reports that the Trump administration planned to resume trade negotiations with Mexico and that proposed U.S. tariffs on Mexican goods might be delayed. In fact, President Trump tweeted Friday morning “there is a good chance” a trade deal with Mexico is forthcoming. Trade tensions between the U.S. and Mexico, along with lingering challenges in U.S.-China trade, have contributed to oil demand concerns.Oil market-watchers are also anticipating what the OPEC+ alliance will decide when it meets later this month. In a research note Friday, ABN-AMRO Senior Energy Economist Hans van Cleef opined that the group’s 1.2 million-barrel-per-day production cut deal will likely hold until the end of this year.“This would give OPEC time to see how global oil demand will evolve in the course of the year as trade tensions will continue to dominate the headlines,” noted van Cleef. “Besides that, there is also more time to evaluate the level of production of sanctioned OPEC countries and to see whether the drop of oil prices would affect the crude offering/production.”Reformulated gasoline (RBOB) also edged upward Friday. The July RBOB contract gained three cents, ending the day at $1.74 per gallon. Compared to the May 31 close, however, RBOB is down 3.4 percent for the week. Henry Hub natural gas also showed positive momentum Friday. July gas futures added more than a penny to settle at $2.34. Despite Friday’s increase, however, gas is down 4.5 percent week-on-week.

 Here's how high the price of oil could go if conflict broke out with Iran - Oil is in the crosshairs as the prospect of confrontation brews between the U.S. and Iran. At least, that’s how Iranian officials would have it. A top military aide to Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Yahya Rahim Safavi, warned over the weekend that “The first bullet fired in the Persian Gulf will push oil prices above $100.” He added, “This would be unbearable to America, Europe and the U.S. allies like Japan and South Korea.” More than a million barrels of oil per day have been wiped off the market as U.S. sanctions, imposed after the Donald Trump administration withdrew from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal last year, endeavor to bring the exports of OPEC’s third-largest producer to zero. This has contributed to the crippling of Iran’s economy, which the U.S. administration says will continue unless Iran “acts like a normal country” and ceases its support of terrorist proxies in the region and ballistic missile testing. Iran has responded to the sanctions by threatening to ditch its obligations under the nuclear deal — which had promised economic relief in exchange for limits to its nuclear development — and return to higher levels of uranium enrichment. A series of attacks in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia that are being blamed on Iran have now pushed tensions to new highs, and prompted the U.S. to deploy more troops and military hardware to the region. In an area responsible for the shipment of one-third of the world’s seaborne oil, just how high could military confrontation — or indeed, an outright war — send the price of crude? Not as high as you might think, according to some experts. “I think that $100 per barrel is ambitious,” Stephen Brennock, an oil analyst at PVM Oil Associates in London, told CNBC via email on Tuesday. He pointed out that the oil market has “more or less shrugged off” the disappearance of a further 500,000 barrels per day of Iranian oil since Washington terminated its sanctions waivers in May.

Saudi Arabia used less crude oil for power generation in 2018 – EIA - In 2018, Saudi Arabia reported burning an average of 0.4 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil for power generation, the lowest amount since at least 2009, the earliest year that data are available from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI). Saudi Arabia burns considerably more crude oil directly for power generation than any other country. Between 2015 and 2017, Saudi Arabia used more than three times the amount of crude oil for power generation than Iraq, the second-largest user of crude oil for power during those years.Saudi Arabia relies on crude oil and other fossil fuels, such as petroleum products and natural gas, for power generation. During the summer months, Saudi Arabia’s electricity consumption increases as domestic demand for air conditioning rises. Saudi Arabia’s direct crude oil burn for power generation reached a record high during the summer of 2015, averaging 0.9 million b/d from June to August. In comparison, direct crude oil burn in the summer of 2018 was 41% lower at 0.5 million b/d.Despite steady increases in both population and electricity consumption, Saudi Arabia reduced its reliance on crude oil for power generation by increasing the use of other energy sources, such as natural gas and fuel oil. Most of the natural gas that Saudi Arabia produces is associated gas, which is natural gas produced along with crude oil from an oil well. Yet Saudi Arabia’s production of natural gas from wells not associated with oil production has also increased, leading to higher consumption of natural gas in the country. Natural gas processing capacity is also increasing. Consumption of natural gas in Saudi Arabia reached 10.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2017, the latest year for which data are available. In addition to natural gas, Saudi Arabia has also been using fuel oil as a partial replacement of crude oil in power generation. Saudi Arabian fuel oil consumption has increased despite fuel oil consumption declining in most regions of the world because of environmental concerns and competition with other fuels. Some trade press reportsindicate that one potential side effect of the upcoming changes to the sulfur limits in marine fuels in 2020 is that the stranded high-sulfur fuel oil could be sent to Saudi Arabia to further replace crude oil in power generation.

French Weapons Sales to Saudi Arabia Jumped Fifty Percent Last Year - France’s weapons sales to Saudi Arabia rose 50 pct in 2018 despite the government calling for an end to the “dirty war” in Yemen, figures released on Tuesday showed, Reuters reports. An annual government report showed that total arms sales rose 30 percent to 9.1 billion euros in 2018, driven by a sharp increase in sales to European allies. France sold about 1 billion euros worth of arms to Saudi Arabia, with the main item being patrol boats. A partial naval blockade of ports controlled by the Houthi movement is one of the tactics used by a Saudi-led coalition in Yemen that has been criticized by campaigners for worsening a humanitarian crisis. “With such transfers revealing a geopolitical alliance with these regimes and total violation of international commitments, one can only expect worsening conflicts in Yemen or the Horn of Africa, where the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are beginning to redeploy in partnership with France,” said Tony Fortin at the Paris-based Observatory for Armament.

The Most Powerful Arab Ruler Isn’t M.B.S. It’s M.B.Z. - NYT —  In 1991, in the months after Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, Prince Mohammed bin Zayed, the 29-year-old commander of the almost negligible air force of the United Arab Emirates, wanted to buy so much military hardware to protect his own oil-rich monarchy — from Hellfire missiles to Apache helicopters to F-16 jets — that Congress worried he might destabilize the region. But the Pentagon, trying to cultivate accommodating allies in the Gulf, had identified Prince Mohammed as a promising partner. The favorite son of the semi-literate Bedouin who founded the United Arab Emirates, Prince Mohammed was a serious-minded, British-trained helicopter pilot who had persuaded his father to transfer $4 billion into the United States Treasury to help pay for the 1991 war in Iraq.  Richard A. Clarke, then an assistant secretary of state, reassured lawmakers that the young prince would never become “an aggressor.” “The U.A.E. is not now and never will be a threat to stability or peace in the region,” Mr. Clarke said in congressional testimony.”    Thirty years later, Prince Mohammed, now 58, crown prince of Abu Dhabi and de facto ruler of the United Arab Emirates, is arguably the most powerful leader in the Arab world. He may be the richest man in the world. He controls sovereign wealth funds worth $1.3 trillion, more than any other country.  He is also among the most influential foreign voices in Washington, urging the United States to adopt his increasingly bellicose approach to the region. His influence operation in Washington is legendary (Mr. Clarke got rich on his payroll). His military is the Arab world’s most potent, equipped though its work with the United States to conduct high-tech surveillance and combat operations far beyond its borders. His special forces are active in Yemen, Libya, Somalia and Egypt’s North Sinai. He has worked to thwart democratic transitions in the Middle East, helped install a reliable autocrat in Egypt and boosted a protégé to power in Saudi Arabia.  Rights groups have criticized him for jailing dissidents at home, for his role in creating a humanitarian crisis in Yemen, and for backing the Saudi prince whose agents killed the dissident writer Jamal Khashoggi. Yet under the Trump administration, his influence in Washington appears greater than ever. He has a rapport with President Trump, who has frequently adopted the prince’s views on Qatar, Libya and Saudi Arabia, even over the advice of cabinet officials or senior national security staff. Western diplomats who know the prince — known as M.B.Z. — say he is obsessed with two enemies, Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood. Mr. Trump has sought to move strongly against both and last week took steps to bypass congressional opposition to keep selling weapons to both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

  IAEA Confirms Iranian Compliance for the Fifteenth Time --Despite more than a year of U.S. violations and unjustified sanctions, Iran is still complying with the nuclear deal. This is the fifteenth consecutive report from the IAEA that confirms Iranian compliance:The U.N. atomic watchdog says Iran continues to stay within the limitations set by the nuclear deal reached in 2015 with major powers, though its stockpiles of low-enriched uranium and heavy water are growing.In a confidential quarterly report distributed to member states Friday and seen by The Associated Press, the International Atomic Energy Agency said Iran has stayed within key limitations set in the so-called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA. Iran has honored its commitments under the JCPOA without interruption for more than three and a half years. In exchange, Iran’s trust was betrayed and the Iranian people have been punished with a severe sanctions regime. The nuclear deal did exactly what it was supposed to do for the P5+1, but the promised sanctions relief for Iran was slow in coming and then arbitrarily snatched away for no good reason. Iranians can be forgiven for thinking that it was a mistake to negotiate away their leverage with the U.S. and the other major powers, and that is what most Iranians now believe. Iran’s continued compliance in the face of the outrageous treatment from the Trump administration has been remarkable, and all the more so when we remember that opponents of the agreement insisted that Iranian cheating was a foregone conclusion. The JCPOA is still alive, and it may survive until there is a new administration in Washington, but it won’t last much longer if the next administration does not hasten to rejoin it and lift all of the sanctions that have been imposed since May 2018.

Explosions Rock Iran’s Largest Port As Oil Products Catch Fire - A fire broke out at Iran’s largest container shipping port, setting off explosions as oil products perpetuated the blaze, according to the Islamic Republic News Agency.The fire broke out in the facility at the port used for storing oil products.Iran’s Shahid Rajaee port on the Gulf Coast is North of the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint for oil tankers traveling to a variety of destinations.INRA reported that the blaze was currently under control per local officials, but that due to the flammable nature of the oil products near the blaze, it is possible that fires will flare up again.The port is critical for Iran, handling 39 percent of all cargo transit in Iran as of 2017, including oil product shipments.Iran’s crude oil exports remain in the spotlight as the United States appears steadfast in its resolve to bring the sanction nation’s oil exports to zero. Oil exports from Iran have fallen to 400,000 barrels per day in May due to the sanctions, which is significantly down from April. In April 2018, Iran exported 2.5 million bpd of crude oil—a far cry from today’s 400,000 bpd.Reports have surfaced, however, suggesting that this 400,000 bpd might be lower in reality, as Iran attempts to circumvent Washington’s sanctions by turning off transponders, making it impossible to track Iran’s shipments and calculate the total exported. Iran has long insisted that the United States will be unable to bring its exports to zero. Today’s fire could provide some cover for Iran on that point, should oil flows drop further this month.

Iran attacks US warships in the Gulf of Tonkin - —Iran has staged a failed hit-and-run attack on U.S. warships, the Navy has reported.According to Pentagon officials, vessels secretly controlled by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Navy (IRGCN) fired several missiles at the U.S. destroyers USS Maddox (DD-731) and USS Turner Joy (DD-951) yesterday while they cruised in the Gulf of Tonkin, just off the coast of Vietnam. The missiles failed to strike either warship.The move came as a shock to Seventh Fleet, which expected Iran to attack U.S. forces on the other side of the world in the Persian Gulf.“This shows just how devious the Ayatollahs are,” said a senior U.S. official who spoke anonymously so he would not be tweet-fired, referring to Iran’s religious leaders, who control the country. “Clearly, the Persians realize that we have achieved local superiority in the Middle East and are pursuing asymmetric responses.”Earlier this month, the U.S. sent an aircraft carrier strike group to the Persian Gulf to deter what U.S. officials claimed was an impending Iranian attack. More recently, officials claimed the Iranian threat had faded. The vessels that staged the attack are traditional Iranian sailing vessels, called dhows, and did not have military markings. The dhows departed immediately after the incident and have not been located since, according to several Pentagon officials.

 Kushner: Palestinians not yet capable of governing themselves - White House Senior Adviser Jared Kushner has said that the Palestinians deserve "self-determination," but stopped short of backing Palestinian statehood, expressing uncertainty over their ability to govern themselves. Kushner, who is President Donald Trump's son-in-law, made the comments in a television interview with the Axios on HBO programmes, broadcast on Sunday. Asked whether he believed the Palestinians were capable of governing themselves without Israeli interference, Kushner said: "That's one that we'll have to see. The hope is that they, over time, will become capable of governing". The Palestinians, he said, "need to have a fair judicial system ... freedom of press, freedom of expression, tolerance for all religions" before the Palestinian areas can become "investable". One of the architects of the United States's yet-to-be-released Middle East peace plan, Kushner said it would be a "high bar" when asked if the Palestinians could expect freedom from Israeli military and government interference. The Palestinian leadership has boycotted the diplomatic effort that Trump has hailed as the "deal of the century". Although Kushner has been drafting the plan for two years under a veil of secrecy, it is seen by Palestinian and some Arab officials as tilting heavily in Israel's favour and denying the Palestinians a state of their own.

US Forces Blow Up Three Oil Tankers In Syria Enforcing Oil Embargo - US-led forces have blown up three oil tankers in Syria as the United States increases its pressure on Syria by thwarting the oil trade between the PKK/YPG and the Assad regime, according to local sources quoted by several media sources. The strike was carried about by coalition planes, which hit three oil tankers, leaving four dead. The coalition has not yet made a statement about the attack. In the area controlled by Assad, oil consumption stands at around 136,000 bpd. Production, meanwhile, is only 24,000 barrels per day. This means that the regime must import significant volumes of crude oil at an estimated expense of more than$2 billion per year. The attack comes a couple weeks after the EU extended its sanctions on the Assad regime for one year after the Syrian regime upped the ante in repressing the Syrian people, bringing the Syrian crisis to a boiling point.Reports surfaced weeks ago that Iran had resumed oil shipments to Syria in the wake of US sanctions on the former, with a million barrels arriving in Syria from Iran on May 5. Further illicit oil shipments may be coming, as a new border crossing between Iraq and Syria is currently under construction, Fox News reported last week, based on satellite imagery revealing that construction is underway.In Syria, Arab residents of oil-rich Deir Ezzor area began protests in April against US-backed Kurdish forces that control the region to the East of the Euphrates. The protests disrupted the oil flows from nearby fields, most of which have been controlled by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces since the end of 2017. The fuel and electricity shortages that are occurring now in Syria have soured previous supporters of Assad against his rule. Iran, who has poured billions into Syria to prop up the Assad regime in recent years, is now feeling US pressure on both fronts—one at home as its oil exports are restricted, and another in Syria.

Israel Continues Airstrikes Against Syria, Killing 15— After killing ten people in a flurry of attacks early Sunday, Israeli warplanes continued with a second round of strikes into the evening, killing at least five more, and bringing the death toll to 15. Overall, four Syrian soldiers have been confirmed killed in the attacks, while seven others from the early attacks were described as foreign fighters. Four of the five killed in the later strikes have yet to be identified. The attacks broadly targeted military facilities, as well as sites for Syrian air defense. The evening strikes reportedly destroyed a warehouse that was believed to be storing rockets. Israel has not commented on these later attacks. The early attacks, however, followed Saturday rocket fire from southern Syria crossing the border. Of two rockets fired, one entered Israeli-occupied territory, but did no damage. Israel reports suggested that a military outpost might well have been the intended target, and responded with the attack.

Military massacres protesters in Sudan - Security forces in Sudan launched a bloodbath early Monday morning, using live ammunition to break up a more than five-month-old sit-in outside the country’s defense ministry in Khartoum, where tens of thousands of Sudanese have regularly gathered to demand an end to military rule and the transfer of power to a democratically elected government. The Sudanese Doctors’ Committee put the confirmed death toll late Monday at over 30 and said that at least 116 people had been wounded. At least one of those who was killed is a child, an eight-year-old cut down by gunfire. The casualty figures are expected to rise dramatically, with many protesters still unaccounted for, and reports of security forces dumping bodies into the Nile River. Similar murderous repression reportedly has also been unleashed against protesters outside of the Sudanese capital. Troops from various military and police units descended upon the encampment, led by soldiers wearing the desert camouflage fatigues of the Rapid Support Force (RSF), a brutally repressive paramilitary outfit that has been used by the regime in Khartoum to suppress regional rebellions in Darfur and in the east of the country. The RSF is led by Lt. Gen. Hamdan Dagalo (popularly known as “Hemeti”), the deputy chair of the country’s currently ruling junta, the Transitional Military Council (TMC), and widely viewed as an aspiring dictator. The troops rushed in using tear gas, stun grenades and live ammunition. Video posted online showed soldiers with whips surrounding and flogging unarmed demonstrators, including elderly men and women. Photographs were also posted of snipers deployed in high rise buildings overlooking the protest site. They opened fire on anyone attempting to record the events with cellphone cameras. One protester recounted: “They shot me in my right thigh because I was carrying someone with a bullet wound to his head ... An officer hit me with his gun and I dropped the man I was carrying. He then stepped away and shot him again in the head and told me ‘now you can go bury him.’” In addition to shooting and beating protesters, the troops burned down tents erected at the sit-in and sealed off the area with machine gun-mounted trucks.

'Bloody massacre': Sudan forces kill at least 30, protesters say -- Sudanese protesters say more than 30 people have been killed after security forces stormed the main protest camp in the capital Khartoum in the worst violence since the overthrow of President Omar al-Bashir, drawing global condemnation. The Sudanese Professionals' Association (SPA), which spearheaded nationwide protests that started in December, said Monday's crackdown amounted to a "bloody massacre". "We are holding the Transitional Military Council (TMC) responsible for what happened this morning," the SPA said, referring to the ruling military council, which currently runs the country. Pro-democracy leaders have called on people to take part in night marches and block the main roads as part of "total civil disobedience" to "paralyse public life" across the north African country. The Sudan Doctors' Committee said on Monday that the death toll, which includes at least one child, is rising and has been difficult to count in the sit-in area outside the military complex in Khartoum. The group said hundreds of people have been wounded, mostly from gunfire, and that according to witnesses, bodies of protesters shot dead were disposed of in the Nile River near the site of the protest sit-in. The United Nations condemned the use of excessive force by the security forces against protesters and called for an independent investigation into deaths from the violence. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in a statement that he was "alarmed" by reports that security forces had opened fire inside a hospital in Khartoum. "What is clear to us is that there was use of excessive force by the security forces on civilians. People have died. People have been injured,"

 Military junta launches counter-revolution in Sudan - The counter-revolutionary bloodbath launched by the junta in Sudan’s capital Khartoum and its twin city Omdurman ongoing since Monday has killed some 100 people, including an eight-year old child, and injured hundreds more. The number of victims includes 40 bodies pulled from the Nile River that the army dumped there. But with many protestors still unaccounted for the final total is likely to rise. A Sudanese journalist on Britain’s Channel 4 cited a former security officer who said that some of those thrown into the Nile had been beaten or shot to death and others hacked to death with machetes, declaring, "It was a massacre." The bloodbath is part of a broader move by the Transitional Military Council (TMC) to forcefully close down the protests and sit-ins in Khartoum and throughout the country. The TMC had seized power on April 11 after months of mass protests, in a preemptive coup against the 30-year rule of President Omar al-Bashir in a bid to preserve the military-dominated regime. It is a prelude to a bloody military dictatorship along the lines of General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s Egypt, with the full backing of Washington’s reactionary and ruthless regional allies, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt. It was el-Sisi, then the Defence Minister in the elected government of Mohammed Mursi’s Muslim Brotherhood-led government, who led the murderous assaults on pro-democracy demonstrators in Cairo in 2013.

Is there a way to counter the Chinese stranglehold on rare earth metals? - Those of us living in the United States are once again getting an education about the importance of rare earth elements for the production of consumer electronics, electric vehicles, wind turbines, and military equipment such as night-vision goggles. The reason for this education is a Chinese threat to retaliate in the ongoing trade war with the Trump administration by restricting exports of rare earths. It's not an empty threat. The last time the Chinese restricted exports in 2010 prices skyrocketed on the world market. Back then the Chinese produced more than 90 percent of the world's supply. Ostensibly, the Chinese were reserving these critical metals to bolster domestic manufacturers by forcing production of devices requiring the metals to occur in China. The Chinese eventually relented in the face of an adverse ruling from the World Trade Organization.To understand this threat in context, first, it is important to know that rare earths are not rare in the earth's crust. Some of the most important are as plentiful as zinc and chromium. However, rare earth elements do not occur in concentrated deposits nearly so often as zinc, chromium and other plentiful metals. That means that rare earths are expensive to mine. Second, only 36 percent of the known reserves are in China. Vietnam, Russia and Brazil have the largest deposits outside of China. But higher prices would probably be needed to spur development of those deposits on a larger scale. This point is not lost on the Chinese. The Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine in California had been a leading source of rare earths for many years but was closed due to low prices in 2002. Expanding low-cost Chinese production was a main culprit.   The mine was later sold and then revived in the wake of the Chinese export restrictions that began in 2010. Investors put $1.25 billion into new infrastructure for mining and processing. The mine operated in the red for years despite high rare earth prices. After the Chinese eased export restrictions on rare earths in 2015, prices plummeted. Within months theMountain Pass mined was closed. The company controlling the mine declared bankruptcy. Two years later the mine was sold to new owners for a mere $20.5 million. . The new owners of the Mountain Pass mine include a Chinese rare earth mining company. Strangely, a recent report touting the importance of the mine to American domestic supply failed to mention the minority stake that a Chinese company holds. Not only are rare earths difficult to mine, they also produce nasty wastes when processed. The Malaysian government is insisting on the removal of 451,000 tons of radioactive water at the main processing facility of Australian rare earth miner Lynas Corporation. The government is threatening to pull the operating license of the facility. Lynas is the largest producer of rare earths outside of China.

 Chinese defense minister warns US not to interfere in regional security disputes -- China’s defense minister lambasted the U.S. this weekend for what he said was undue interference in regional disputes relating to Taiwan and the South China Sea, according to Reuters.  Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe said Sunday at the Shangri-La Dialogue, Asia’s foremost defense summit, that China would “fight to the end” against meddling into its relationship with Taiwan, which China considers a Chinese territory.  “If anyone dares to split Taiwan from China, the Chinese military has no choice but to fight at all costs,” Wei said, according to Reuters. “The U.S. is indivisible, and so is China. China must be, and will be, reunified.”  Both nations, he added, understand that outright war “would bring disaster to both countries and the world.” The U.S. does not have any formal ties to Taiwan but has sold it arms and aroused Chinese ire in May when U.S. and Taiwanese officials met for a security summit, the first of its kind in decades.  Taiwan’s government said in a statement that Beijing’s claims of its “peaceful development” were the “lie of the century.” Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council said Taiwan “will continue to strengthen its self-defense capabilities, defend the country’s sovereignty and democratic system, and uphold the right of the 23 million people of Taiwan to freely choose their future.”  On Saturday, Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan called out recent Chinese activity in the region without identifying the country by name at the same summit."Perhaps the greatest long-term threat to the vital interests of states across this region comes from actors who seek to undermine, rather than uphold, the rules-based international order," Shanahan said. "If the trends in these behaviors continue, artificial features in the global commons could become tollbooths, sovereignty could become the purview of the powerful.” 

China sets up blacklist to hit back in Huawei fight - Beijing revealed some more cards in the hand it is preparing to play in the high-stakes trade battle with the United States, announcing a new blacklist of foreign firms. China’s Ministry of Commerce said it will establish a list of “unreliable entities,” following the recent decision by the Trump administration to ban US firms from doing business with Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei. The move is a clear response to the blacklisting of Huawei, targeting any foreign companies that “block or cut supplies to Chinese firms with non-commercial purposes.” Depending on what the consequences will be for being placed on the list, the move could inch the global economy closer to bifurcation, with US and Chinese companies being forced out of each other’s home markets. The move comes amid reports that Beijing is moving ahead with preparations to limit rare earth element exports to the United States. The resource is needed for the production of many technologies, including some vital for the military. Around 80% of US rare earths imports is supplied by China. The Ministry of Commerce did not say which companies are going to be added to the list, but said that “detailed measures” will be announced soon. The US restrictions on doing business with Huawei have hit the company hard, with many multinational companies playing it safe by announcing they will halt cooperation. That includes Google, which said that it will no longer provide services for Huawei devices to run the Android operating system. While Google is already largely cut out of the Chinese market, other firms such as chipmaker Qualcomm are heavily dependant on sales in China. That revenue stream will already take a massive hit from lost sales to Huawei, but being blocked out of the rest of the market will surely add salt in the wound.

China issues warning to students, academics on studying in the US amid trade war - China on Monday issued a warning to students and academics about the risks of studying in the United States amid the trade war between the two nations, Reuters reported.The Ministry of Education said that some students seeking to study in the U.S. had encountered problems with the duration of their visas being limited and an increase in visa refusals.“This has affected Chinese students going to study in the United States or smoothly completing their studies,” the statement said, according to Reuters.“The education ministry reminds students and academics of the need to strengthen risk assessment before studying abroad, enhance prevention awareness, and make corresponding preparations.”Trade negotiations between the world's two largest economies faltered early in May.As a result, the Trump administration raised tariffs from 10 percent to 25 percent on $200 billion of imports, a move which China responded to by targeting $60 billion worth of U.S. agricultural exports.  The editor of the widely read Chinese newspaper the Global Times linked the warning to that trade dispute.“This warning is a response to recent series of discriminatory measures the U.S. took against Chinese students and can also be seen as a response to the U.S.-initiated trade war,” Hu Xijin tweeted.

Trade tensions have had a ‘significant’ impact on China, IMF says - Heightened trade tensions with the U.S. are beginning to hit China’s growth. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its 2019 growth forecast for the world’s second-largest economy to 6.2% from 6.3% on Wednesday, after the conclusion of the organization’s visit to China over roughly the last two weeks. “The trade tensions have had an impact, significant, but in our view, so far contained,” Kenneth Kang, deputy director of the Asia-Pacific Department at the IMF and leader of the visiting team, told CNBC in an interview Wednesday. “The renewed trade tensions are a significant source of uncertainty and a downside risk to our outlook ... But I think we need to wait a few more months,” he said. The IMF expects China’s growth to slow to 6% next year, and to 5.5% by 2024. Negotiations between Beijing and President Donald Trump’s administration took a turn for the worse in early May with the increase of tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods exported to the U.S., and an effective ban on American companies doing business with Chinese telecom giant Huawei. Beijing responded with tariffs on $60 billion worth of U.S. goods, the announcement of an “unreliable entities list” and a far tougher stance against U.S. requests. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang are expected to meet this weekend, but there is still no confirmation on whether Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will hold talks at the G-20 meeting in Japan at the end of the month to seal even a temporary deal. The pressure from the U.S. on trade comes as China already faces slowing growth. In the last year, authorities have announced a slew of measures to improve financing to privately-run companies — which account for most of the jobs and economic growth — and tax cuts in order to boost consumption. So far, those efforts have paid off. Kang noted that “employment has held up” amid the heightened trade tensions. “We would encourage the authorities to rely more on market forces rather than on administrative targets to improve the efficiency, to make this lending sustainable,” he said.

China Services PMI Plunges As Output Expectations Hit 7 Year Lows - With Chinese macro continuing its serial disappointment (absent the record liquidity-injection rebound in April), expectations were for Caixin PMI Services data to slow in May (after its exuberant rebound) echoing the demise seen in Chinese manufacturing. China's official manufacturing PMI tumbled into contraction (and Caixin was flat just above contraction) in May. China's official services PMI was flat from April but Caixin data plunged from 54.5 to 52.7 (well below the 54.0 drop expected).  Commenting on the China General Services PMI™ data, Dr. Zhengsheng Zhong, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at CEBM Group said: “The Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index fell to 52.7 in May from the recent high of 54.5 in April, although it remained firmly within expansionary territory."“Overall, China’s economic growth showed some signs of slowing in May. Employment and business confidence in particular merit policymakers’ attention.” Among the gauges included in the survey:

• 1) The gauge for new business fell from the past month’s recent high but remained in expansionary territory, reflecting slowing growth in demand across the services sector.
• 2) The measure for employment fell from the past month’s recent high while remaining within expansionary territory, suggesting jobs growth is slowing.
• 3) Gauges for input costs and prices charged by services providers both fell slightly while remaining in expansionary territory. Growth in input costs outpaced that of prices charged, indicating that services companies remained under significant pressure.
• 4) The measure for business expectations continued to fall, despite staying in positive territory, reflecting services providers’ weakening confidence in their future prospects.

The Caixin China Composite Output Index fell to 51.5 in May from 52.7 the month before, mainly due to slower growth in the service sector.

Putin and Xi hail ‘unprecedented’ ties as US relations sour - Russia and China appear to be intent on strengthening their alliance and fostering deeper cooperation in the face of increased political and economic hostility from the U.S. The bid to strengthen bilateral ties continues this week as Chinese President Xi Jinping is in Russia Wednesday for the start of a three-day state visit and top-level talks with Putin. Welcoming Xi to the Kremlin on Wednesday, Putin said ties between Russia and China stood at “an unprecedented level.” Xi echoed that sentiment by saying that the countries’ relations had withstood “trials and tribulations” over the years and were now better than ever. “We’ve managed to take our relationship to the highest level in our history,” Xi said. “We will continue to improve our ties and we are ready to go hand in hand with you,” he told Putin at the leaders’ initial meeting that was broadcast online. On Wednesday evening, Putin and Xi will attend an event to mark the 70th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the two countries. A number of trade and investment deals are expected to be signed, although a Kremlin spokesperson was unable to give more detail when contacted by CNBC. Xi will also attend and speak at Russia’s annual St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) that starts Thursday. Ahead of the visit, Xi remarked on the blossoming relationship between the countries and the need to foster stronger ties. “I look forward to charting the course of our future relationship together with President (Vladimir) Putin and to seeing that our comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination will stride into a new era,” he told Russia’s TASS news agency on Tuesday. “Our two countries enjoy strong political trust and can always count on each other’s firm support on issues concerning our respective core interests and major concerns,” he noted.

Russia, China Prepare To Dump Dollar, Agree To Bilateral Trade In National Currencies - Just one month after conducting joint military exercises, Russia and China are set to sign an agreement which would boost the use of their national currencies in bilateral and international trade in an attempt to mmove away from the current dollar-denominated financial system, according to Russian state-owned news outlet TASS.It is planned that Russia and China will be developing bilateral payments in national currencies, encourage and expand the use of national currencies, particularly through promotion of their use when signing international trade contracts. According to the draft agreement, the sides will also assume required measures to lift barriers for payments in national currencies. -TASSThe Kremlin released a draft decree on Wednesday outlining "settlements and payments for goods, service and direct investments between economic entities of the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China are made in accordance with the international practice and the legislation of the sides’ states with the use of foreign currency, the Russian currency (rubles) and the Chinese currency (yuan)."According to the draft, Moscow and Beijing will cooperate to develop a national payments system, along with cross-border payments in national and other currencies.  "The sides deepen the cooperation in the field of national payment card systems and within the framework of the Russian and Chinese legislation provide support to commercial banks in their independent decision-making on joining the payment system in the state of the other side," reads the document. 

Huawei Signs Contract To Build 5G Network In Russia -- In a sign that Huawei is increasingly reliant on adversaries of NATO and the West to bolster its grip on global 5G dominance as Washington conspires to run it out of the west, the Guardian reports that the Chinese telecoms giant has struck a deal with an unlikely ally, Russian Telecoms giant MTS, to develop a 5G network in Russia over the coming year. According to the Guardian, the agreement was signed on the sidelines of a meeting between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian president Vladimir Putin in Moscow, on the sidelines of a critical annual Russian economics forum. The deal will see “the development of 5G technologies and the pilot launch of fifth-generation networks in 2019-2020." MTS said in a statement on Wednesday. In a statement, Huawei’s Chairman Guo Ping said he was "very happy" with the agreement "in an area of strategic importance like 5G." During the meeting in Moscow, Putin repeatedly praised Xi as a "close friend," noting that they had met nearly 30 times over the past six years. The trip is Xi’s eighth to Russia since 2012. In a statement on the issu, Huawei’s Guo Ping, one of the company’s chairmen on rotation, said he was “very happy” with the agreement “in an area of strategic importance like 5G." Huawei, the Chinese technology company considered a security threat by the US, has signed a deal with Russian telecoms giant MTS to develop a 5G network in the country over the next year. This even as dozens of telecoms companies in the US and Europe have preemptively cut ties with the Chinese internet giant, opening another front in the US-China trade conflict.

Dare To Fight - China Says To Use Korean War As Template For Fighting The USA Chinese newspaper suggested on Wednesday that the country should not bow to Washington in trade negotiations, comparing the ongoing trade conflict to Korean war talks held between the countries nearly 70 years ago. State media in China has been referencing the 1950-1953 Korean War to help rally patriotic sentiment behind the government during the ongoing trade war according to Reuters. China and North Korea collectively battled United Nations forces, led by the United States, during the war. Now, in front page commentary published in The Study Times, a media outlet published by the Central Party School which trains rising Chinese officials, said that China should look to its "spirit and determination" during the Korean War talks as a model for how the country should posture during the trade war. The Korean War talks ultimately took two years to end. The commentary made no direct mention of the current trade war, but the intention of the article was clear: China repeatedly blasted the United States for trying to bully it over trade. The commentary read: “The Chinese People’s Volunteers, in the face of the world’s top military and economic power and diplomatic blackmail, made full use of the Communist Party’s spirit of not being afraid of pressure, daring to fight and being good at fighting. To this day, it remains worthy of appreciation and promotion.” The paper said that China and North Korea went into the talks with the United States over the Korean War with sincerity and compromise, but that the countries could not make concessions in the face of US "hegemony" and would not accept terms signed under duress. In 1953, an armistice was signed that was largely based upon China and North Korea’s original proposals from 1951, according to the paper. China has said that it’s open to more trade talks with the United States, but there have been no high-level face-to-face meetings since last month. And while Trump says he’s expecting to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit at the end of this month in Japan, China has declined to confirm this.

North Korean official seen in public days after report he had been executed — A senior North Korean official who had been reported as purged over the failed nuclear summit with Washington was shown in state media on Monday enjoying a concert near leader Kim Jong Un. North Korean publications on Monday showed Kim Yong Chol sitting five seats away from a clapping Kim Jong Un in the same row along with other top officials during a musical performance by the wives of Korean People’s Army officers. Kim Yong Chol has been North Korea’s top nuclear negotiator and the counterpart of U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo since Kim Jong Un entered nuclear talks with the U.S. early last year. He traveled to Washington and met President Donald Trump twice before Kim’s two summits with Trump. Negotiations between Washington and Pyongyang have been at a standstill since February, when the second summit between Trump and Kim broke down over what the United States described as excessive North Korean demands for sanctions relief in exchange for only a partial surrender of its nuclear capabilities. South Korean newspaper Chosun Ilbo last week cited an unidentified source to report that Kim Yong Chol had been sentenced to hard labor and ideological re-education over the failed summit in Hanoi. The newspaper also reported that senior envoy Kim Hyok Chol, who was involved in pre-summit working-level talks with American officials, was executed with four other officials from the North’s Foreign Ministry for betraying Kim Jong Un after being won over by the United States. X See Also Trump’s U.K. Visit: What Hurdles Could a U.S.-U.K. Trade Deal Face? South Korea’s government and media have a mixed record on tracking developments among North Korea’s ruling elite, made difficult by Pyongyang’s stringent control of information about them.

 Indonesia vs China in a fish fight at sea - The catch has expanded dramatically, the fish are bigger and new canneries have sprung up all around Indonesia, all apparent signs of a hale and hearty fisheries industry. But Fisheries Minister Susi Pudjiastuti continues to fight a constant battle since she banned foreign trawlers from Indonesian waters in arguably one of the most notable achievements of Joko Widodo’s first term as president.In an interview with Asia Times, Pudjiastuti said she believes up to 80% of the nation’s catch is still exported illegally or offloaded on to foreign, often Chinese-owned, mother ships outside its 200-mile economic exclusion zone (EEZ) – a transshipment practice she wants declared an international crime.Moreover, she says only a quarter of the estimated 3,000 new 100-200 tonne fishing boats built locally in the past three years have been properly registered; the rest are painted the same color and carry duplicate names to avoid paying taxes. There is big money involved for the 100 or so Indonesian businessmen involved, of whom about 20 own 4,500 of the 7,600 registered boats above 30 tonnes, according to the minister. Annual profits, she says, range from US$1-2 million for 30-100 tonne vessels, and $2-4 million for those in the 100-200 tonne capacity. Pudjiastuti, a 54-year-old rags-to-riches entrepreneur who parlayed her West Java seafood processing business into the world’s largest small-plane airline, says Indonesian fishermen are now catching 80-kilogram tuna, almost twice the size of several years ago.The Chinese have predictably sought to undercut Indonesia’s actions by using satellite systems that detect water density and direct fishing fleets to biomass concentrations of mainly tuna and tuna-like species before they reach Indonesian waters.Satellite imagery shows nearly 4,000 fishing boats and support craft around Micronesia in the Western Pacific at any one time, about 85% of them from China and Taiwan. It is a picture that raises concerns about sustainability in nearby Indonesia.“[Pudjiastuti’s] policies have been very effective,” says one maritime analyst who tracks the movement of China’s vast fishing fleet in the Western Pacific. “They (the Chinese) are now trying to get everything before it gets into Indonesian waters.” Pudjiastuti has also made enemies abroad by persisting in her policy of sinking foreign fishing boats seized poaching in Indonesian waters after learning that local surrogates of the owners were paying only $50,000 at auction to get them back.

India no longer world’s fastest-growing economy - India's economy has grown at its slowest pace in almost five years, according to the latest data released by the government. The new numbers are a cause of concern for PM Narendra Modi, who started his second term on Thursday, writes the BBC's Sameer Hashmi. In the past financial year - April 2018 to March 2019 - the economy grew by 6.8%. And in the quarter between January and March, it expanded by just 5.8% - falling behind China's pace for the first time in nearly two years. This means India is no longer the world's fastest-growing economy. And it will be a challenge for the new finance minister, Nirmala Sitharaman, only the second woman to hold the post after former PM Indira Gandhi. Ms Sitharaman has headed important ministries like commerce and defence during Mr Modi's first term. But she takes charge at a time when the economy is faltering. Where are the jobs? The immediate concern will be to help restore confidence in the economy. According to a government report, unemployment touched a 45-year high between 2017 and 2018. Mr Joshi believes the government should focus on labour-intensive sectors like construction and textiles to create more immediate jobs, but also give importance to industries like healthcare to generate employment in the long run. "The government wants to scale-up its healthcare and welfare schemes, and apart from doctors and surgeons, you also need paramedics and nurses," he says.

India to carry out its 1st-ever space war exercise in July - After successfully testing an anti-satellite (ASat) missile in March and initiating the raising of a tri-service Defence Space Agency soon after, India plans to conduct its first-ever simulated space warfare exercise next month. Named ‘IndSpaceEx’, the exercise will basically be a ‘table-top war-game’, with all stakeholders from the military and scientific community taking part in it, but it underlines seriousness with which India is taking the need to counter likely threats to its space assets from countries like China. “Space is getting militarised, as also contested and competitive. The main aim of the exercise, to be held in the last week of July under the aegis of Integrated Defence Staff of the defence ministry, is to assess requisite space and counter-space capabilities that are needed by India to ensure we can protect our national security interests in this final frontier of warfare,” a senior official said

Machinery sector falls fastest in Asia sector PMI in May - Most business sectors in Asia saw expansions in activity in May, led by industries like banks, household products, consumer services and food, while the machinery sector fell fastest for the third straight month. The Nikkei Asia Sector Purchasing Managers' Index, or PMI, showed that out of the 19 monitored sectors, 14 registered growth, while four decline with one unchanged. The machinery and equipment sector was the poorest performer at 45.7. Readings above 50 signal expansion, while those below 50 indicate contraction. Among gainers, banks posted a gain of 55.4, recording the sharpest gain since January 2018. It is the first time that banks tops the rankings since March 2016. Meanwhile, growth slowed for pharmaceuticals and software services.

 Venezuela crisis: What happened to uprising against Maduro? -- I have it on good authority that the plot to unseat Venezuela's President Nicolás Maduro started with members of his inner circle, not with the opposition. The big question is why they backed out, although this Washington Post article weaves quite a convincing tale of the intrigue. What is clear is that it was a sophisticated scheme, the like of which we most probably will not see again soon. Discontent at the top did expose fractures in the Maduro government, suggesting the president has been weakened by internal tensions. But one month on, neither he nor the opposition headed by National Assembly Speaker Juan Guaidó seems capable of vanquishing the other in a bold definitive move. Instead they have begun wary talks in a new peace process in Oslo mediated by the Norwegians. In the meantime, Venezuelans who thought the attempted uprising might stem the tide of their misery have gone back to the business of surviving.

 Canada Closes Venezuelan Embassy as Guaido Promises Maduro Out This Year  — Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland has announced the “temporary” closure of her country’s embassy and the withdrawal of diplomatic personnel from Venezuela, claiming Ottawa had “no choice.” In a Sunday press statement, Freeland accused the Maduro government of haven “taken steps to limit the ability of foreign embassies to function” by failing to renew visas for diplomatic personnel. No evidence was provided to support the claim. She additionally claimed that that the Caribbean country is “slid[ing] deeper into dictatorship.” The measure is to take immediate effect, with diplomatic visas reportedly due to expire at the end of June. All embassy and consular services are to be transferred to the Colombian capital of Bogota over 1,500 kilometers away. Freeland also indicated that Ottawa will “evaluate” the status of Venezuelan diplomats in Canada “appointed by Maduro.”  Canada was the second country to recognise Juan Guaido after he swore himself in as “interim president” on January 23. It has since continued to back Guaido’s attempts to oust the Maduro government and has begun to forge diplomatic relations with the opposition leader’s representative in Canada, Orlando Viera Blanco, who has held a number of meetings with government representatives and members of parliament in Ottawa and Vancouver. The Trudeau administration has also followed US President Donald Trump in imposing several rounds of sanctions on Venezuela. It is unknown how many Canadian citizens in Venezuela this measure will affect, but recent opposition-led estimates suggest that there are up to 50,000 Venezuelans living in Canada.

CRA signs secret settlement with wealthy KPMG clients involved in offshore tax scheme - CBC - The Canada Revenue Agency has once again made a secret out-of-court settlement with wealthy KPMG clients caught using what the CRA itself had alleged was a "grossly negligent" offshore "sham" set up to avoid detection by tax authorities, CBC's The Fifth Estate and Radio-Canada'sEnquête have learned.This, despite the Liberal government's vow to crack down on high-net-worth taxpayers who usedthe now-infamous Isle of Man scheme. The scheme orchestrated by accounting giant KPMG enabled clients to dodge tens of millions of dollars in taxes in Canada by making it look as if multimillionaires had given away their fortunes to anonymous overseas shell companies and get their investment income back as tax-free gifts.KPMG is a global network of accounting and auditing firms headquartered out of the Netherlands and is one of the top firms in Canada."Tax cheats can no longer hide," National Revenue Minister Diane Lebouthillier promised in 2017.Now, Tax Court documents obtained by CBC News/Radio-Canada show two members of the Cooper family in Victoria, as well as the estate of the late patriarch Peter Cooper, reached an out-of-court settlement on May 24 over their involvement in the scheme. Details of the settlement and even minutes of the meetings discussing it are under wraps. A CBC News/Radio-Canada reporter who showed up to one such meeting this spring left after realizing it was closed to the public.

Massive Explosion Rocks Russian Munitions Plant; Dozens Injured, 200 Buildings Damaged - Several explosions rocked an explosives plant in the central Russian city of Dzerzhinsk, according to RT.   "A big explosion roared, my ears popped and then sirens went off. In a minute, there was another blast, windows shattered, and a column of smoke rose, and there was fire," one witness told RT.   The facilities damaged in the blast are part of Russia's scientific and research institute ‘Kristall’. It specializes in scientific and technological support for work related to the production of explosive materials and devises its safety measures.This is the third blast suffered by the TNT-maker over the past year. Last August, five workers were killed in an explosion at the site, and in April an explosion destroyed a one-story building but caused no injuries. –RT  At least 79 people were injured with 16 hospitalized, while nearly 200 buildings were damaged. Authorities report that 38 plant employees and four local residents were among the injured, and were treated for burns and glass cuts.  A first explosion triggered two other blasts at the same facility and then fire. Five buildings were destroyed at the plant and 200 others were damaged throughout the city. People saw their windows shattered and ceiling coverings collapse. More than 300 people and 50 technical units were involved in the response to the blast. It took firefighters several hours to extinguish the blaze that covered 800 square meters. -RT

17-Year-Old Girl Chose to Die by Legal Suicide Because Her Life Had Become “Unbearable”  — A 17-year-old Dutch girl who was raped and molested as a child chose to die at her home last week after saying that her suffering had become “unbearable.”  Noa Pothoven from Arnhem, Netherlands, died last Sunday in a hospital bed in her living room after she starved herself.  Noa had long been open about her harsh struggle surviving sexual assault and rape at a young age, which she detailed in an acclaimed autobiography titled Winning or Learning, where she also discussed her battles with mental illness, post-traumatic stress disorder, depression and anorexia. She also discussed her battles openly on social media.  In a “sad last post” to Instagram last Saturday, Pothoven wrote in her native Dutch: “It’s finished. I have not really been alive for so long, I survive, and not even that… I will get straight to the point: within a maximum of 10 days I will die … After years of battling and fighting, I am drained. I have quit eating and drinking for a while now, and after many discussions and evaluations, it was decided to let me go because my suffering is unbearable.  I deliberated for quite a while whether or not I should share this, but decided to do it anyway. Maybe this comes as a surprise to some, given my posts about hospitalization, but my plan has been there for a long time and is not impulsive.”  In her book, Pothoven wrote that she was sexually assaulted at children’s parties at the ages of 11 and 12 before she was raped by two men when she was 14. In 2001, the Dutch legalized euthanasia under the strict provisions of the Termination of Life on Request and Assisted Suicide Act, the same year the teen was born. In 2017, 6,585 people in the Netherlands chose to end their lives through euthanasia, according to a Dutch Regional Euthanasia Review committee report.

Global Growth to Weaken to 2.6% in 2019, Substantial Risks Seen - worldbank.org — Global economic growth is forecast to ease to a weaker-than-expected 2.6% in 2019 before inching up to 2.7% in 2020. Growth in emerging market and developing economies is expected to stabilize next year as some countries move past periods of financial strain, but economic momentum remains weak.Emerging and developing economy growth is constrained by sluggish investment, and risks are tilted to the downside. These risks include rising trade barriers, renewed financial stress, and sharper-than-expected slowdowns in several major economies, the World Bank says in its June 2019 Global Economic Prospects: Heightened Tensions, Subdued Investment. Structural problems that misallocate or discourage investment also weigh on the outlook.“Stronger economic growth is essential to reducing poverty and improving living standards,” said World Bank Group President David Malpass.“Current economic momentum remains weak, while heightened debt levels and subdued investment growth in developing economies are holding countries back from achieving their potential. It’s urgent that countries make significant structural reforms that improve the business climate and attract investment. They also need to make debt management and transparency a high priority so that new debt adds to growth and investment.”Growth among advanced economies as a group is anticipated to slow in 2019, especially in the Euro Area, due to weaker exports and investment. U.S. growth is forecast to ease to 2.5% this year and decelerate to 1.7% in 2020. Euro Area growth is projected to hover around 1.4% in 2020-21, with softness in trade and domestic demand weighing on activity despite continued support from monetary policy. Growth among emerging market and developing economies is projected to fall to a four-year low of 4% in 2019 before recovering to 4.6% in 2020. A number of economies are coping with the impact of financial stress and political uncertainty. Those drags are anticipated to wane and global trade growth – which is projected to be the weakest in 2019 since the financial crisis a decade ago -- is expected to recover somewhat.

Global recession fears grow as factory activity shrinks - (Reuters) - Factory activity slowed in the United States, Europe and Asia last month as an escalating trade war between Washington and Beijing raised fears of a global economic downturn and heaped pressure on policymakers to step up support. Such growth indicators are likely to deteriorate further in coming months as higher trade tariffs take their toll on commerce and dent business and consumer sentiment, leading to job losses and delaying investment decisions. Some economists predict a world recession and a renewed race to the bottom on interest rates if trade tensions fail to ease at a Group of 20 summit in Osaka, Japan, at the end of June, when presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping could meet. The U.S.-China trade war, slumping car sales and Britain’s stumbling European Union exit took their toll on manufacturing activity last month. U.S. manufacturing activity growth declined in May, separate surveys by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and IHS Markit Ltd showed. The ISM reading of 52.1 was a surprise decline and the worst showing since October 2016, while the Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was at its lowest level since the 2009 global financial crisis. U.S. Commerce Department data on construction spending showed no change in April, disappointing expectations. But the report also included upward revisions of data from the first quarter.

Global Manufacturing PMI Contracts To 7-Year Low  --While Morgan Stanley signaled that the probability of a US recession in one year is now 60%, the highest it has been since the global financial crisis, judging by JPMorgan's global manufacturing PMI, we may already be there."Trade tensions have re-emerged at a critical moment in the global cycle. Corporate  confidence is weak, and we argue that the outcome of trade talks will be key to the global growth outlook."JPMorgan piled on, saying the probability of a U.S. recession in the second half of this year has risen to 40% from 25% a month ago, while Barclays now expects a worst case scenario of a recession in 9 months. All of which is a major problem for global manufacturing as Markit reports that Global PMI surveys, led by the US plunge, signalled that manufacturing downshifted into contraction during May, down an unprecedented 13 straight months. Business conditions deteriorated to the greatest extent in over six-and-a-half years, as production volumes stagnated and new orders declined at the fastest pace since October 2012. The trend in international trade continued to weigh on the sector, with new export business contracting for the ninth month running. Business optimism fell for the second month in a row and to its lowest level since future activity data were first collected in July 2012.This real-economy shift fits with the market's recent regime change:"The overall market reaction of equities down and yield curves flatter shows a broad re-pricing lower of global growth expectations," Goldman Sachs' strategist Ron Gray wrote in a report. "Macro data have not been very supportive and the 2018 narrative of slowing global growth has re-emerged."

Air Cargo Demand Continues To Plunge As World Trade Sinks -  The International Air Transport Association (IATA) published a new report for global air freight markets showing that demand (measured in freight tonne kilometers (FTKs)), plunged 4.7% in April on a YoY basis. The trend turned negative in January as YoY demand declined thanks to a synchronized global downturn and deepening trade war. Air freight operators are expecting a further deterioration in global growth in 2H19. Trade tensions between Washington and Beijing dramatically flared up last month, and industry experts warned global trade volume is in free fall."If we see further deterioration and tariff increases, there will be further damage to world trade," IATA director general Alexandre de Juniac said on a conference call. "It will be a difficult year for world cargo."Freight capacity, measured in freight tonne kilometers (AFTKs), expanded by 2.6% YoY in April. Capacity growth outpaced demand for the last four quarters. Air cargo volumes marginally increased during the Chinese New Year and Easter but have since turned down with volumes 3% below the August 2018 peak."April saw a sharp decline in air cargo growth and the trend is clearly negative this year. Cost inputs are rising, trade tensions are affecting confidence, and global trade is weakening. Airlines are adjusting their capacity growth to try and fall into line with the dip in global trade since the end of 2018. It all adds up to a challenging year ahead for the cargo business. Governments should respond by easing trade barriers in order to drive economic activity," said Juniac.Evidence of the slowdown is materializing across the world. Chinese industrial output, retail sales, and investment dropped in April, said Bloomberg. In the US, retail sales declined in April while factory production dropped for the third time in four months. In Europe, German business confidence fell to four-year lows last month. Nearly $6 trillion of goods are exported by air transport each year, according to IATA, accounting for 35% of world trade. Air freight companies have already warned about revenue declines due to weakening world trade.

ECB Cuts Long-Term GDP Growth, Inflation Forecasts - With Draghi having already disappointed markets by failing to deliver a "big bang" announcement, and instead extending the lower for longer period until the first half of 2020 as was already priced in by the market, and unveiling less generous TLTRO III terms that left much to be desired, during today's press conference Draghi also unveiled the ECB's latest economic forecasts, which also confirmed that Europe is nowhere near ending its long-running economic malaise. To wit, while the ECB revised up forecasts for 2019 euro-area growth and inflation by 0.1 percentage points in its new projections, it trimmed its 2020 and 2021 GDP forecasts from the March forecast, by 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively:

• Sees 2019 at 1.2% vs 1.1% in March
• Sees 2020 at 1.4% vs 1.6%
• Sees 2021 at 1.4% vs 1.5%

A similar adjustment was seen in the inflation forecasts, which while seen increasing by 0.1% in 2019, was trimmed in 2020 from 1.5% to 1.4%, and 2021 was left unchanged:

• Sees 2019 at 1.3% vs 1.2% in March
• Sees 2020 at 1.4% vs 1.5%
• Sees 2021 at 1.6% vs 1.6%

Global bond market has biggest inflows in over four years - The global bond market has enjoyed its biggest weekly investor inflows in over four years, with investors dumping equity funds in favour of fixed income amid concerns that the international economy is wilting and central banks will have to cut interest rates. Fixed income funds tracked by EPFR, a data provider, sucked in $17.5bn globally in the week ending June 5, the biggest inflows since February 2015. More highly rated “investment grade” funds took in $18.5bn — the biggest five-day inflow on record. In contrast, riskier corners of the bond market — such as emerging markets or junk-rated corporate debt — suffered outflows, and equity funds saw another $10bn seep out, taking the cumulative withdrawals this year to $155bn.  Buoyed by the more dovish stance by the US Federal Reserve, financial markets initially enjoyed a roaring start to the year. But the sudden re-emergence of global trade tensions in May has once again stirred concerns over the health of the US economy — and sparked speculation that policymakers will have to cut rates soon. “The Fed seems ready to grant Donald Trump his wish and lower interest rates,” said Alexander Krämer, an analyst at Commerzbank. “Both the homemade trade dispute the US has with the rest of the world and the decline in inflation over the past few months provide the rationale behind such a move.” The solidifying view that US interest rates have peaked and will soon head lower again also led investors to pull money out of US loan funds at the fastest pace this year. Lower interest rates weaken the attraction of loans, which pay a floating rate of interest that is tied to the ebb and flow of the Fed’s policy rate.  US loan funds suffered $1.4bn in outflows for the week ending June 5, the biggest one-week exodus from the floating-rate market since January 2, in the wake of the December stock market turmoil and the Fed first indicating a slower pace of interest rate increases in 2019.  “If they start cutting rates I think you will have another round of outflows from loan mutual funds,” said Michael Anderson, a strategist at Citi. Jay Powell, Fed chair, hinted that he was open to cutting interest rates if needed, promising to “act as appropriate” to keep US economic expansion on track despite the escalating trade war with China.  Investors now think at least two Fed rate cuts are likely before the end of the year, according to the prices of interest rate futures, and that three or even four are possible. The first move lower could come in July, but the Fed funds futures market indicates a decent chance that might come as early as later this month.

 Europe’s China diplomacy seeks silver linings to US trade war - Chinese Vice President Wang Qishan has visited Germany this week, first visiting Hamburg's harbour, where a Chinese firm is building a new container terminal, then holding talks with Angela Merkel, the country's chancellor and German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier in Berlin on Friday.His German tour follows a two-day trip to theNetherlands.The Europe trip is important. "Berlin's stance on China - for better or worse - affects its European neighbours' views and policies," Joshua Webb, of the Koerber Stiftung think-tank's Berlin Foreign Policy Forum, told Al Jazeera."From lobbying for Huawei to gauging whether there is potential to lure Berlin from its orientation towards Washington, there is certainly enough to discuss from a Chinese point of view."In fact, Wang is just the latest in a series of high-profile Chinese visitors to Europe. It is clear that the ongoing, escalating trade war between China and the United Statesmakes the European Union, the world's largest trading bloc, more important to the Chinese.There's no doubt that trade was on the agenda in Berlin, alongside bilateral relations, observers say.Europe certainly feels the effects of the tit-for-tat tariffs and economic sabre-rattling in which the US and China are currently engaged. But rather than seeing the European Union as helplessly trapped between two economic superpowers, most experts working in this area believe any trade war may well bring Europe more opportunities than disadvantages."Conflict between the US and China presents a good moment for the EU to exert pressure on China and get some concessions," Gustaaf Geeraerts, codirector of the Centre for China-EU Relations at Fudan University in Shanghai, told Al Jazeera. Beijing has frequently said it would be willing to compromise on such issues, but, realistically, the Chinese never followed through and the Europeans never pushed them on it, he added. That is about to change, Geeraerts said. Recently, European powers have been taking "a more cautious and realistic approach" instead of that previous openness, "qualified by some defensive measures". There was a clear turning point in April, he notes.

My Bank In Denmark Just Offered Me A Negative Rate Of Interest To Borrow Money - Yesterday I called my bank in Denmark, Nordea, and couldn’t believe what they told me... They offered to lend me money at MINUS 0.12% for a ten-year mortgage. In other words, the bank would PAY ME to take out a loan. Of course, as a Sovereign Man editor, I’ve written a lot about negative interest rates. But most of these cases were always reserved for big banks or institutions. That no longer seems to be the case… Now, negative interest rates ARE the norm. Thousands, if not tens of thousands of Danes will go out and take out mortgages that will pay themevery month. This is completely mind-boggling to me. But it just highlights how broken the financial system really is. Everything about this is in complete violation of the law of prosperity Simon Black’s been writing about for years: produce more than you consume and invest the difference. Now, institutions and governments are incentivizing people to consume, instead of save. In fact, they’re paying people to go into debt. That is not how prosperity is created. Instead of encouraging people to invest their surplus capital in productive investments, people are penalized for saving in the first place. It’s like everything has been turned upside down. Some of the most popular investments on the planet are the ones that burn the most cash (Tesla, Netflix, Uber, etc.) Insolvent governments in Europe are able to borrow at negative yields, with no afterthought whatsoever as to the consequences. And bankrupt governments like Argentina are able to borrow for 100 YEARS and pay next to nothing for it (even though Argentina went bankrupt twice in the last thirty years alone). None of this makes any sense. Here in Europe, bank deposits yield close to 0%. In 2016, the Swiss government even asked its citizens to delay their tax payments as long as possible, because the government didn’t want to pay negative interest rates on those balances. And in the United States, banks rob their customers blind time and time again by lying, stealing and deceiving them. It’s extraordinary to me that these are the options we have with our money today.

 Negative Rates, Designed as a Short-Term Jolt, Have Become an Addiction – WSJ - For five years, European nations have been trying to jump-start their ailing economies with what was supposed to be a radical, short-term remedy—negative interest rates.  Instead, central banks haven’t been able to wean their economies off them. Increasingly, they appear to be a permanent feature of the landscape. No major bank that introduced negative rates during Europe’s debt crisis has turned main policy rates positive again.  “Overall, we are on a painkiller,” said Tamaz Georgadze, chief executive of Raisin GmbH in Berlin, which provides a platform for consumers and businesses to deposit through 77 banks in 25 countries, “and it’s very hard to get off it.”  Negative rates reverse normal lending costs. Commercial banks must pay to keep their money in central banks, rather than collecting interest on it. That means they should have an incentive to lend their money at low cost to other banks, businesses and consumers while charging some customers to deposit cash. In theory, that encourages people to borrow more, spend more and save less—stimulating the economy until negative rates aren’t needed.

The Dummy Company at the Heart of Deutsche Bank Money Laundering Probe - Leaked records involving a company at the center of a Deutsche Bank money laundering probe expose a global cadre of money makers.The records concerning former Deutsche Bank subsidiary Regula Ltd. shine a light, too, on how one of the world’s largest banks helped shield the identities and machinations of the world’s rich and powerful.German police and tax inspectors have raided the homes and offices of German citizens, bankers, accountants and tax advisers as part of a criminal investigation. Authorities allege that Regula helped more than 900 wealthy Germans evade taxes and hide money from government coffers.This month’s raids come on the back of a November 2018 search of Deutsche Bank’s headquarters in Frankfurt. Regula is what is known as a “nominee” or “dummy” company. For a few hundred dollars a year, dummy companies like Regula that are offered by banks, law firms and boutique offshore specialists worldwide can appear on the paperwork of an offshore company as a director or shareholder. A company’s real owner does not appear on public records.Nominee services are legal and widespread. Clients can choose such services to avoid unwanted publicity, for example. Nominees are especially popular with the global elite and with criminals who seek to obscure money from tax authorities or hide evidence of graft.The International Consortium of Investigative Journalists first wrote about Regula in the 2013 Secrecy for Sale investigation, also known as the Offshore Leaks probe. It included details on how Deutsche Bank helped clients maintain hundreds of offshore companies. The nominee company appeared again in ICIJ’s Swiss Leaks, Panama Papers and Paradise Papers investigations.

The Coalition Has Come To An End - Merkel's Government On Verge Of Collapse After SPD Chief Resigns -  Merkel's shocking announcement last week that she was "unretiring" after the CDU's abysmal showing in last week's EU Parliamentary election - the party's worst result ever in a national election which cost the CDU/CSU's position as the largest party in the bloc's largest legislative body - and as a result the Chancellor would withdraw her support from her own hand-picked successor, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, or AKK, has itself been throw into chaos after the leader of Chancellor Angela Merkel's junior coalition partner, the SPD, resigned on Sunday from her party's top posts, raising the possibility that Germany's embattled government could collapse. Andrea Nahles, who heads - or rather headed - the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), came under intense pressure after voters handed the party its worst European election results a week ago as Europe continues to revolt against establishment parties.  Ahead of three key state elections in eastern Germany in September, the SPD had initially planned to re-examine its partnership with Merkel's centre-right CDU-CSU alliance in the autumn. But ahead of the planned leadership vote on Tuesday, Nahles said she would give up her jobs as both party chief and head of its parliamentary group, the AFP reported."The discussions in the parliamentary group and the broad feedback from the party showed me that the support necessary for the exercise of my offices is no longer there," Nahles said much to Merkel's shock, as suddenly the coalition government exists only in theory.The 48-year-old said she hoped her resignation "would open the possibility that the succession can take place in an orderly manner".

Italian Stocks, Bonds Slide After EU Triggers Disciplinary Process Over Public Debt - It's not just the trade war of 2018 that is back: as of moments ago, the feud between Italy and EU over the Mediterranean country's soaring debt (and spending) which sent Italian bond yields soaring last year, only to fade away as Brussels conceded to vague promises from Rome, is now officially back and moments ago Italian stocks, bonds and the Euro all slumped after the EU's executive arm formally took the first step toward "disciplining" Italy over its failure to rein in its debt, setting up a clash with the government in Rome and paving the way for an initial penalty of as much as €3.5 billion. In a report published Wednesday, the European Commission said Italy hasn’t made sufficient progress in reducing its mountain of debt in line with the bloc’s fiscal rules, and now expects Italy's debt ratio to rise in both 2019 and 2020, up to over 135%, due to a large debt-increasing “snowball” effect, and that a disciplinary process is “warranted". “Italy’s public debt remains a major source of vulnerability for the economy,” the commission said in its report. The ratio of the nation’s debt to gross domestic product will “rise in both 2019 and 2020, up to over 135%, due to a large debt-increasing ‘snowball’ effect, a declining primary surplus, and underachieved privatization proceeds,” according to the report. “While refinancing risks remain limited in the short term, the high public debt remains a source of vulnerability for Italy’s economy,” the commission added. Additionally, in its damning report, the commission says that Italy made only limited progress in tackling tax evasion and improving market-based access to finance. “There has been no progress in shifting taxation away from productive factors, in reducing the share of old-age pensions in public spending (and indeed there has even been some backtracking in that field), in reducing trial length in civil justice, and in addressing restrictions on competition,” the commission said. The step marks an escalation of the country’s budget tussle that roiled markets at the end of 2018 and is a warning for Italy’s populist leaders, particularly Deputy Premier Matteo Salvini who has vowed to change EU budget rules. As Bloomberg notes, the commission’s move is just one step in a complicated process, which requires EU governments to weigh in several times, and while any fine would be relatively small, an official reprimand from the bloc could spell further trouble for Italy, "which is already buffeted by financial markets and plagued by tensions between the anti-establishment Five Star Movement and the anti-migration League, which are in a tenuous ruling coalition."

France illegally arming Libyan coastguards to stop refugees from Africa - While hundreds of thousands of refugees are attempting to escape Libya to Europe, the Macron government in France is providing the Libyan coastguard with six ships to catch refugees sailing to Europe and return them to Libya, where they are imprisoned in concentration camps. The policy, which has been condemned by multiple human rights organizations because of the prevalence of torture, rape, slavery and murder in the camps, is both barbaric and illegal.At a February security conference in Munich, Minister of the Armed Forces Florence Parly informed Faïez el-Sarraj, the President of the Government of National Unity based in Tripoli, that France had purchased six boats for Libya. The purpose was to stop the flow of migrants attempting to journey across the Mediterranean. According to the press, the ships, built by the company Sillinger, which equips the French special forces, include dedicated supports for the Libyan regime to mount machine guns.On May 10, the Paris Administrative Court rejected the request of eight human rights organizations—including Amnesty International, Doctors without Borders, Cimade, and Migreurop—to suspend the boats’ delivery. They had pointed to European and UN embargoes against the sale of arms to Libya, and the “foreseeable consequences of the delivery of the six boats for the human rights of migrants and refugees intercepted and returned to Libyan soil.”In the French-language press, a deafening silence reigns over the atrocious conditions in which refugees are being held in Libyan camps built with the financial support of the European powers. By 2017, human rights organizations and CNN had reported torture, sexual abuse and murder in the detention centers (See: “ Amnesty International report exposes EU role in mass torture of refugees in Libya ”).Last November, La Croix interviewed Vincent Cochetel, special envoy of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, on the conditions for refugees detained in Libya. When asked whether the practicing of slavery in Libya reported in 2017 was disappearing, Cochetel replied: “On the contrary, these practices have increased in number. As it is more difficult to leave Libyan soil, traffickers need to monetize their investment by exploiting even more detainees who are sold or lent by the day. In addition, detention situations have deteriorated.”

Emmanuel Macron says Britain should leave the EU with or without a deal on October 31st - EMMANUEL Macron has said Britain should be kicked out of the EU with or without a deal on October 31 - unless it agrees to a radical rethink. The French President said our current exit date should be the “final, final deadline” in a boost to Brexiteer PM hopefuls like Boris Johnson.But he added holding a second referendum or a devising a “totally new scheme” on the future relationship could justify another extension. Speaking in Paris, Mr Macron warned the next British PM that trying to renegotiate the backstop would be a “non-starter”.He said: “I think this is the final, final deadline because I don’t want to have the new Commission deal with this.“I think it is a big mistake to procrastinate. I do believe we now have toimplement the British people’s decision.”But on a further delay, he then added: “Except if the British people themselves decide something else.“It’s feasible if we have the perspective of either a new referendum or a totally new scheme which would be acceptable for the 27 and our negotiator.”His remarks came as EU chiefs called for more “realism” in the Tory leadership race - and urged candidates to stop promising a renegotiated deal.

Most EU governments back another Brexit delay, says EU source: The Times  (Reuters) - Most European Union governments will back another Brexit delay regardless of who becomes the next British prime minister, The Times reported here on Friday, citing a senior European source. At least 25 European governments are prepared to give the UK another extension, despite statements from most British prime minister candidates that Britain will leave the EU on Oct. 31 with or without a deal, the newspaper added. “In the end no one wants to be seen as the one who pulls the plug,” the source told The Times.

UK Labour Party’s civil war blows up in aftermath of European election debacle - Labour’s right-wing has intensified its efforts to assert undisputed control over the party after it registered a disastrous result in the European elections, coming third with 14 percent, behind the Brexit Party and the pro-Remain Liberal Democrats. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn supported a Remain vote in the 2016 EU referendum in line with the demands of the dominant sections of British capital, but never succeeded in placating Labour’s strongly pro-EU Blairite faction which is dominant within the parliamentary party. After facing off a leadership challenge immediately following the referendum, Corbyn has been forced to face both ways on Brexit trying to keep his fractured party together. He adopted a position of “constructive ambiguity,” stressing that Labour would “respect the referendum result,” but by seeking a “soft Brexit” maintaining tariff free access to the Single European Market. Failing this, party conference decided that Labour would either seek a general election or a second referendum on any deal proposed by Theresa May’s Conservative government. Above all Corbyn advanced his position as the best means of maintaining national unity while still eventually securing the outcome desired by the City of London. He spent six weeks prior to the EU elections in talks with May even as her premiership fell apart. In the end she resigned just days after Corbyn reluctantly broke off talks. In the absence of any genuine attempt to overcome the divisions sown in the working class by the 2016 referendum, the European elections became a de facto plebiscite on Brexit. As a result, the Tories were reduced to a nine percent vote, while Labour did little better against the overtly pro and anti-Brexit parties.

Brexit Dithering - Yves Smith - With the Tory Party leadership contest set to dominate British political news for the next few weeks, Brexit is going on hold. Not only does this mean no forward motion on the UK side (even if it were capable of that), but by the time the dust settles, with the Tory membership vote set to start on July 22, is when everyone who matters in the EU is about to go on holiday. So that leaves only two months to get anything done, charitably assuming the UK will prove capable of that.  I’m at risk of stepping way outside my realm of knowledge, since UK political machinations would seem to play into what happens with Brexit. But even with the LibDems now in the lead in polls, ahead of the Brexit Party, nothing of real import is likely to change unless some Tory MPs live up to their threat in the event of a Boris Johnson win and back a general election to prevent him from becoming Prime Minister. However, the “pull down the house” MPs are fewer in number than previously suspected, apparently only about 20. In theory, with the thin coalition majority, that would be enough defections to trigger a general election. But I assume the skepticism over the faltering revolt is that only a portion of that 20 are expected to follow through.  For the benefit of non-UK readers, the Tory leadership starts on June 7. Conservative Home helpfully sets forth the Parliamentary process for whittling down the list to two, who are then voted on by Tory Party members. “Members” as in dues-paying members. Their number is roughly 160,000, increased from the former estimate of 120,000 to 130,000 by recent sign-ups. They are much more gung-ho about Brexit than Tory voters generally. But they are managing the difficult feat of being even more clueless about Brexit than Theresa May.  Ian Dunt sums up how the contest is shaping up: After all, this is basically a no-deal leadership fight. Those are the terms of purity that Nigel Farage’s success in the European elections imposed on the Conservative party…. We’re in a weird fantasy land of political commentary, in which the contest is fought over Brexit, but the subject itself is rarely mentioned. Each candidate insists they will deliver it and then get on to whatever they want to talk about – lowering taxes, more bobbies on the beat, One Nation Toryism, whatever. But of course it is all nonsense. Brexit will eat them up and swallow them whole, just as it did their predecessor. So it would be useful if journalists actually asked them what they intend to do about no-deal Richard North has been doing the unpleasant duty of watching closely for what the contenders for party leadership have been saying about Brexit, and it’s mind-boggling.  Boris Johnson, Ester McVey, and Dominic Raab are already pumping for a crashout. Michael Gove appears to be the only aspirant clearly positioning himself as a moderate and willing to seek a further extension. And Jeremy Hunt, who North deems to be “one of the more sensible Tory MPs,” is now running second to Johnson among MPs. However, Tory members look likely to have one or maybe even both candidates pumping for a crash out.

Trump faces giant penis mowed into field near airport where he lands for UK state visit - A teenager has mowed an anti-Trump message, complete with a giant penis, into the grass of his family home ahead of the US president’s UK state visit. Ollie Nancarrow spent his weekend mowing the words “Oi Trump” into his lawn, near Hatfield Heath, in Essex.The 18-year-old also used the mower to etch a giant polar bear, penis and the words “climate change is real” into the grass, according to theBishop’s Stortford Independent.The A-level student hopes that the US president will spot his creation as Air Force One approaches Stansted Airport, which is near Hatfield Heath, on Monday morning. “Donald Trump and his denial of climate change are not welcome and I want him to be fully aware of that when he flies in to Stansted on Monday,” he said.

 Tens of Thousands Flood Streets in UK to Protest Trump and “Everything He Stands For” — Protesting both the individual cruelty of U.S. President Donald Trump and the globally ascendant “politics of hate” he represents, tens of thousands took to the streets in London and across the U.K. Tuesday as Trump enjoys “royal treatment” from the British government on his first official state visit. Trump claimed in a tweet Monday that he had not “seen any protests yet,” but the demonstrations on Tuesday will be impossible to miss, with the 20-foot-tall Trump baby blimp flying over London and crowds of Britons pouring into the streets throughout the country.“We are here to take on misogyny, racism, fascism, and hatred,” Guardian columnist Owen Jones declared during a speech in London. Jones emphasized this point in a column ahead of Tuesday’s mass demonstrations, noting that the protests “aren’t just about Trump, they’re about everything he stands for.”  “These protests won’t simply be about Trump and the perverse reality TV show he’s treated the world to,” Jones wrote. “The protests will be about Trumpism: about confronting a resurgent global far right, defending the rights of women and minorities, fighting the climate emergency, opposing the threat of war, and standing against an attempt to gut the NHS and trash hard-won rights and freedoms.

Next Conservative leader: Trump condemned for ‘entirely unacceptable interference’ after praising Boris Johnson’s bid to be PM - Senior politicians from all of the main parties have warned Donald Trump against “distasteful interference” in British politics during an already controversial state visit this week, with the Tory leadership race and future Brexit policy hanging in the balance.Mr Trump was accused by party leaders and MPs past and present of breaking a longstanding convention by praising Boris Johnson, claiming he would make an “excellent” prime minister, ahead of a three-day trip to the UK which begins on Monday.Speaking to The Independent, Sir Malcolm Rifkind, a Tory former foreign secretary, said the comments by the “narcissistic and egocentric” Mr Trump were “unprecedented for a president of the United States”.Jeremy Corbyn and Sir Vince Cable also condemned the remarks, and one MP suggested the Queen should rescind Mr Trump’s invitation to a state banquet on Tuesday night. It is highly unusual for a sitting US president to comment on a UK political election, although Mr Trump has previously drawn fire over his vocal support for Brexit and his criticism of Theresa May.

Boris Johnson Snubs Trump, Says He's Too Busy For Meeting - Boris Johnson has basked in President Trump's praise, touting Trump's endorsement as yet another reason why he should succeed Theresa May as Britain's next prime minister. But when the opportunity arose for Johnson to meet Trump, the former foreign secretary snubbed the leader of the free world, saying he was "too busy" to meet with him.  Over the weekend, Trump praised Johnson as a "friend" and as a "very talented" politician with whom the US might be able to negotiate a sweeping trade deal (Trump has repeatedly brought up the possibility of a trade deal during his trip, to the delight of Brexiteers who are pushing for a 'no deal' exit from the EU). Trump has also compared Johnson favorably to Theresa May (much, we imagine, to the prime minister's chagrin).But during a Tuesday morning phone call, Johnson reportedly turned down the opportunity for a one-on-one meeting with Trump because of a Conservative leadership hustings event, according to ITV reporter Robert Peston. A spokesman for Johnson's office told British media that the decision was intended to show just how seriously Johnson - who is far and away the favorite to win the Tory leadership contest - is taking the race.

Farage Meets Trump After BoJo Snub, Says He Believes In Brexit -- Though President Trump wasn't able to meet with the "very talent" Boris Johnson on Tuesday (Johnson turned down the offer of a meeting in what some described as a snub, saying he had leadership campaign events to attend), the leader of the free world did have an opportunity to meet with another British 'friend' - Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage. Ahead of the trip, Trump heaped praise on Farage, recommending that, whoever wins the Tory leadership contest should appoint Farage to lead the next round of Brexit talks with Brussels. During their meeting Tuesday at Winfield House, the US ambassador's residence in London, the two discussed what has become Trump's favorite topic during his visit to the UK: The prospect for a "tremendous" trade deal between the US and UK once the latter throws off the "shackles" of EU membership, which Trump said could double, or even triple, trade between the two countries. Earlier, Trump said "everything" would be on the table during trade talks with the UK, including the National Health Service. Farage said during a post-meeting debriefing on LBC that he had a "good" meeting with Trump, and that he was surprised by how prepared Trump was to talk trade. "The Americans are very, very prepared for their side in the trade negotiations," Farage said. The Brexit Party leader, whose nascent party won a plurality of the vote during last month's EU Parliamentary elections, added that Trump "is very interested as to who the next Conservative leader and Prime Minister is," Farage said. Trump "absolutely believes in Brexit," Farage said, and "thinks it's the right thing for the country to do." Watch the full interview below:

Cast off EU ‘shackles’ and you’ll get a bumper trade deal, Donald Trump tells UK on first day of state visit - DONALD Trump today called on Britain to throw off the EU "shackles" and agree a US trade deal as he began his state visit. The President said talks are already underway on a post-Brexit trade deal between the UK and America. And he insisted he'd received "great love" from Brits on the first day of his state visit. Mr Trump has been meeting the Queen and other senior royals after jetting in from Washington DC this morning. Tomorrow he will hold talks with Theresa May in No10, before attending D-day ceremonies on Wednesday. Shortly before tonight's state banquet, the President tweeted: "London part of trip is going really well. The Queen and the entire Royal family have been fantastic. "The relationship with the United Kingdom is very strong. Tremendous crowds of well wishers and people that love our Country. "Haven’t seen any protests yet, but I’m sure the Fake News will be working hard to find them.Great love all around. "Also, big Trade Deal is possible once U.K. gets rid of the shackles. Already starting to talk!" Mr Trump has repeatedly promised Britain a bumper trade deal after Brexit - as long as we leave the EU's customs union. Around 100,000 protesters are expected to descend on Central London tomorrow for an anti-Trump demo.

UK Retail Sales Crash By Most On Record -- “The risk of further job losses and store closures will only increase,” warned Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the British Retail Consortium (BRC), after reporting U.K. retail sales declined by the most on record in May, with sluggish growth in online sales and Brexit-related uncertainty taking a toll.  Bloomberg reports that total sales fell by 2.7%, the biggest drop since at least 1995 when excluding any distortions caused by the timing of Easter.  While some of the drop can be accounted for by comparing to last year -- when sales were boosted by sunshine, the World Cup and a royal wedding -- political and economic uncertainty played a significant role, the British Retail Consortium and KPMG said. On a like-for-like basis, sales decreased by 3% from a year earlier, and online sales of products apart from food grew just 1.5%, an all-time low, the BRC reported.Of course, economic uncertainty over Brexit is blamed (along with political uncertainty) by BRC but comparisons to last year may be distorted further by the fact that 2018's sales were boosted by sunshine, the World Cup and a royal wedding. So while Corbyn and the conservatives continue to battle (with Farage adding his own flavor to the mix), and the central bank backing away from discussions of rate-hikes (to temper any no-deal Brexit-fueled inflation), the nation's core is collapsing.