week ending Nov 16

  The Fed Is Losing Its Grip on U.S. Interest Rates Once Again -- Although the Federal Reserve has calmed money markets during the past two months, success has a downside: The main interest rate that officials try to wrangle is getting close to the edge of the range they’re targeting. Actions including the Fed’s recent repo-market liquidity injections and Treasury-bill purchases have pushed the effective fed funds rates down to 1.55%. That’s still within the 1.50%-to-1.75% band where central bankers want it to be, but it’s unusually near the lower boundary. Some are worried it could dip below. When that rate strays, it tends to signal that the Fed doesn’t have strong control over its main tool for implementing monetary policy, a worrisome prospect for central bankers. It happened in mid-September as fed funds briefly jumped 5 basis points above the upper bound, prompting hundreds of billions of dollars of Fed intervention to get things back under control. “It’s all just about Fed credibility and maintaining control over fed funds,” said BMO Capital Markets strategist Jon Hill. “That’s absolute.” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is addressing Congress on Wednesday and Thursday. While Powell’s prepared remarks didn’t explicitly address the technical aspects of monetary policy implementation, he did conclude with a few thoughts on the September turmoil in the funding markets. Last month, the Fed said it would buy Treasury bills to maintain a level of bank reserves at or above levels last seen two months ago. “These actions are purely technical measures to support the effective implementation of monetary policy as we continue to learn about the appropriate level of reserves,” Powell said. Powell later told lawmakers that he thinks the Fed has contained the problem with the repo market. “I think we have it under control,” he said. “We’re prepared to continue to learn and adjust, but it’s a process and it’s one that doesn’t have implications for the economy or general public.” It appears, he added, that U.S. banking reserves need to be just under $1.5 trillion to maintain the peace.

 Roiled Repo Markets: Looking for Answers in All the Wrong Places --Yves Smith - Even though this is a finance and economics blog, I haven’t written about the disruption in the repo markets. That is in part because the upset is not in any way, shape, or form like the 2008 period when banks were unwilling to repo even Treasuries to each other overnight because they were fearful another major dealer (say Morgan Stanley, which was on the verge of going tits up) would go the way of Lehman. I thought posting on it would feed the false narrative (which sadly is still kicking around) that the repo crunch is a sign of systemic stress, which it isn’t.The second reason is that pretty much no one seems to have a clue as to why this is happening including most troublingly, the Fed. Perversely, the fact that the Fed is so clearly behind the curve is almost certain to make whatever the underlying problems are worse. Flatfooted central banks waking up to a problem and randomly hitting switches to try to make it go away is not only not a good look, but it makes the Confidence Fairy have a sad, which makes market upsets worse.We’ll give a high level review of some of the major theories and why they don’t add up (and worse, look like special pleading by banks for regulatory breaks they don’t need) and will turn to an idea from John Dizard of the Financial Times (who regularly has great finds but is oddly buried by the pink paper by relegating him to a weekend wealth section column). Dizard argues that the big banks even with the apparent repo crisis make more money lending to the FX swaps market. This is consistent with big fish like JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon whining about regulation rather than sounding at all worried.Mind you, we are not saying there are not problems here. What we are question is whether they are being characterized properly and whether they could become systemic. If Dizard is right, and Dizard is reviving and amplifying concerns raised by the Bank of International Settlements two years ago, the problem is in FX swaps and forwards, which amount to dollar lending but unlike repos, aren’t booked on balance sheet. That means that this area is a big blind spot for central banks; if you read the 2017 BIS paper, you can see they had to do tons of nitty gritty analytical work to come up with crude guesstimates.

 The Fed’s Repo Bailout and JPMorgan’s 38 Trading Floors -- Since September 17 of this year, the central bank of the United States, the Federal Reserve, has been pumping hundreds of billions of dollars each week to unnamed trading firms on Wall Street. We know the loans are going to trading firms because the loans are being made to the 24 primary dealers (see list below) with whom the New York Fed conducts open market operations. (The list includes one foreign bank and 23 stock brokerage houses and investment banks.) The New York Fed has publicly disclosed that the loans are going to primary dealers but will not say which firms are getting the bulk of the money. The Fed did something very similar to this under a facility it called the Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF) during the financial crisis. It kept the names of the firms getting the bulk of the money secret. When the Government Accountability Office (GAO) conducted its audit of the Fed’s loans and released the results to the public in 2011, it turned out that the trading units of Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch had received 63 percent of the $8.95trillion that was loaned under this program. Citigroup’s trading unit received $2 trillion; Morgan Stanley got $1.9 trillion; and Merrill Lynch received $1.775 trillion.There is nothing in the history of the Federal Reserve Act to suggest that elected members of Congress ever intended that the Federal Reserve would become the lender-of-last-resort to bail out the reckless trading floors on Wall Street – and yet that appears to be what happened in 2008 and what is happening again today.Today’s Fed loans are being made at the ridiculously low interest rate of 1.55 percent (as of last Friday) and structured as repurchase agreements (repos) with U.S. treasuries or federal agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) accepted as collateral for the loans. This is the first time that the Fed has made such loans since the financial crisis and yet no Fed official can explain what the crisis is today. It is completely possible that the Fed is loaning money at 1.55 percent to a trading firm and the trading firm is re-loaning that money as a 9 percent margin loan to a stock trading customer or using the funds to trade for itself.Veterans on Wall Street find it particularly noteworthy that the stock market has been hitting new highs since the Fed starting pumping out this money for a crisis that has yet to be credibly defined.What we do know from Reuters reporting is that JPMorgan Chase withdrew the vast sum of $158 billion from its liquid reserves at the New York Fed in the first six months of this year and is now claiming it doesn’t have the liquidity to make repo loans, thus leaving the Fed as the lender-of-last resort. JPMorgan Chase owns the largest commercial bank in the United States (Chase) with more than 5,000 branch offices that have collected $1.6 trillion in deposits from mostly moms and pops across America. Those deposits are Federally-insured (up to specific caps) by the U.S. taxpayer – who will be on the hook if a mega bank like JPMorgan Chase fails.

The Fed Has Created the Big Lie for Congress on its Repo Loans while the New York Fed Blocks Freedom of Information Requests  --  Pam Martens - Yesterday Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress. Only one Congressman, Kenny Marchant (R-TX), had the courage to ask Powell about the Fed’s intervention in the repo loan market beginning on September 17. Since that time the Fed has been pumping hundreds of billions of dollars each week (that the New York Fed creates electronically out of thin air) into its 24 primary dealers on Wall Street. These primary dealers are not commercial banks that might be inclined to use the funds to make loans to local businesses or to consumers to buy a house and help their local economies. No, 23 of the 24 primary dealers are stock brokerage firms and investment banks that engage in leveraged bets in the stock, bond, commodities, and derivatives markets. The 24^th is a foreign bank. (See primary dealer list below.)There is nothing in the legislation that created the Fed, the Federal Reserve Act, that allows it to be the lender-of-last-resort to the trading houses on Wall Street. The Fed’s Discount Window, which is legally allowed to make emergency or seasonal loans, is restricted by law to just deposit-taking banks – not Wall Street trading houses.And yet, bailing out Wall Street is exactly what the Fed has been doing since September 17 of this year and what it did secretly to the tune of $29 trillion during the financial crisis from December 2007 to the middle of 2010. The Fed does have some leeway in an emergency situation but that has to be brief and defined. The Fed has announced that it’s planning to keep its current money spigot to Wall Street flowing into at least January of next year. But according to Powell’s testimony to Congress yesterday, there’s no pressing crisis on Wall Street. Powell stated that “The core of the financial sector appears resilient, with leverage low and funding risk limited relative to the levels of recent decades.” Powell knows that it’s a fallacy to say that leverage is low on Wall Street. It’s only low if one ignores the hundreds of trillions of notional (face amount) derivatives residing at the mega Wall Street banks. Powell and the Federal Reserve have apparently decided that they are going to push the narrative with Congress and the media that these hundreds of billions of dollars each week that are being pumped out to Wall Street at the preposterously low rate of interest of between 1.55 and 1.59 percent are simply “technical” open market operations that the Fed does routinely as part of monetary policy. Of course, the last time it did this was during the financial crisis so it’s pretty hard to call it routine. This is how the exchange went between Congressman Marchant and Powell:

Fed Braces For Year End Repo Turmoil: Announces $55 Billion In 28, 42-Day Repos To Flood System With Cash -Just moments after we reported that according to Bank of America, the US financial system's reliance on repos could "short-circuit the market's ability to accurately price the supply and demand for leverage as asset prices rise", and implicitly, facilitate the next financial crisis because  "the Fed has entered unchartered territory of monetary policy that may stretch beyond its dual mandate", the Fed confirmed just how reliant both it, and the entire US financial system is on the repo market, when it released its latest term repo schedule, one which for the first time included 28 and 42-day repos which would mature into the new, 2020 year, yet which amount to just a total of $55 billion collectively, an amount which we fear will be far too little to meet year-end liquidity demands, and represents just the first shot in the Fed's scramble to flood the system with year-end liquidity. Meanwhile, the NY Fed is maintaining its $120BN in overnight repos indefinitely.This is what the Fed released today at 3pm:The Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk) at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has released the schedule of repurchase agreement (repo) operations for the monthly period from November 15, 2019 through December 12, 2019.  In accordance with the most recent FOMC directive, the Desk will continue to offer at least $35 billion in two-week term repo operations twice per week and at least $120 billion in daily overnight repo operations.The Desk will also offer three additional term repo operations during this calendar period with longer maturities that extend past the end of 2019.  These additional operations are intended to help offset the reserve effects of sharp increases in non-reserve liabilities later this year and ensure that the supply of reserves remains ample during the period through year end. They are also intended to mitigate the risk of money market pressures that could adversely affect policy implementation. The Desk will adjust the timing and amounts of repo operations as necessary to maintain an ample supply of reserve balances over time and based on money market conditions, consistent with the directive from the FOMC. The calendar of specific term repos is below:

Fed’s Powell Says Forensic Work Ongoing on Liquidity Crisis; This Chart Shows Why He’s Worried --Pam Martens - Yesterday, for the second day in a row, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, gave testimony and took questions before a Congressional Committee. On Wednesday it was the Joint Economic Committee; yesterday it was the House Budget Committee. On both days, only one member of the Committee dared to ask a question about the hundreds of billions of dollars the Fed is hurling at Wall Street each week in repo loans. The crisis in the repo loan market, where financial institutions make overnight loans to each other, began on September 17 when the interest rate spiked from the typical range of 2 percent to 10 percent. For the first time since the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve had to step in with lots of cash to ease the liquidity stresses. The Fed has continued to offer that cash every business day since that time and is now supplementing its overnight loans, which can run as high as $120 billion per day, with $35 billion in 14-day term loans twice a week. In total, the Fed is offering $670 billion each week in revolving loans to securities firms it will not name for a crisis it cannot define.It’s seems to be only Republicans from Texas who have the guts to confront the issue when Powell appears before Congress. On Wednesday it was Congressman Kenny Marchant who questioned Powell on the issue; yesterday it was Congressman Bill Flores, another Republican from Texas, who raised the subject. Here’s how the exchange went yesterday:

• Flores: “The Federal Reserve had engaged in some substantial repurchase market activities beginning in mid September and then the Fed was actively involved earlier this week. Can you tell us what’s causing the liquidity issues that are causing the Fed to intervene. You said they’re technical and I’m not disputing that but I’m just wondering can you tell us what’s underneath that, that’s causing that activity.”
• Powell: “I want to stress that these are not things that will affect economic outcomes.”
• Flores: “Right, I’m not implying that. I think you’re trying to do the right thing, I just need to know what’s causing it, underlying.”
• Powell: “So one big thing is we’ve been allowing the balance sheet to decline in size and we stopped that process back in July. Really it comes down to the supply of reserves, which are something that we create. We surveyed all the banks and said what’s your lowest comfortable level of reserves. We added that up, we put a buffer on top of it and we felt we were probably well above the level of scarcity. And then in early September we had a situation where the liquidity – where banks had much more liquidity than they said they needed and yet it didn’t flow into the repo market.”

Let’s pause right here for a moment. Asking the mega banks on Wall Street, which blew themselves up in 2008 because they would much rather gamble in high risk derivatives and convoluted investment products with their depositors’ money, how much they would be comfortable holding in liquid reserves at the Fed is like giving a four-year old the choice between a pony or a book for Christmas. Naturally the Wall Street banks are going to want to yank as much liquidity as they can get from the Fed to enrich their trading books. And since when does the regulator of the most serially charged bank holding companies in America seek the opinion of the serially-charged miscreants?

 Alan Greenspan says there’s ‘no point’ for central banks to issue digital currency — Former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Tuesday that there is no need for central banks to issue digital currency. “There’s no point for them to do it,” Greenspan said at Chinese finance magazine Caijing’s annual economic outlook conference. He pointed out that national currencies are backed up by sovereign credit, something no other organization can offer. “The fundamental sovereign credit of the United States is far in excess of anything Facebook can imagine,” Greenspan said. The social network company made waves earlier this year by announcing plans for a cryptocurrency project called Libra that had key partnerships with major global payment processing companies. However, last month Visa, Mastercard, PayPal, Stripe and eBay said they were dropping out of the coalition behind Libra, amid increased scrutiny from the U.S. government. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China has been pressing ahead with work on its own digital currency, although it’s unclear how soon it will be released. Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker said in early October it is “inevitable” that central banks including the Fed will issue digital currency, according to a Reuters report. He said his view was “in the minority” at the Fed, but that his staff is researching the issue, Reuters said. Digital currencies captured worldwide attention in 2017 when the price of bitcoin soared from a few hundred U.S. dollars to nearly $20,000. Many enthusiasts of bitcoin’s underlying blockchain technology say its merits lie in its decentralized system, which is at odds with the central control of an institution.

 Trump rails on Fed, notes other countries have negative rates: ‘Give me some of that money’ - President Donald Trump used his pulpit before the Economic Club of New York on Tuesday to bash the Federal Reserve, a marked diversion from what many on Wall Street had hoped would be a positive speech on the progress of trade relations between the U.S. and China. Instead of highlighting warmer relations with Beijing, Trump criticized the Fed for what he sees as its hesitation to lower interest rates and blamed the central bank for capping gains in the U.S. economy and stock market. The president noted that since his election, the S&P 500 is up more than 45%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up over 50% and the Nasdaq Composite is up 60%. But those numbers could be way higher, Trump said, if it weren’t for the reluctance of the Fed. “And if we had a Federal Reserve that worked with us, you could have added another 25% to each of those numbers, I guarantee you that,” Trump said. “But we all make mistakes, don’t we?” the president added. “Not too often. We do make them on occasion.” It wasn’t immediately clear which “mistake” Trump was referencing: His choice to nominate Fed Chair Jerome Powell to lead the central bank or Powell’s preferred course of monetary policy. Trump also contended that the Fed should continue to cut interest rates to make the U.S. more competitive in the global market. “We are actively competing with nations who openly cut interest rates so that now many are actually getting paid when they pay off their loan, known as negative interest,” he said. “Who ever heard of such a thing?” “Give me some of that,” he said. “Give me some of that money. I want some of that money.”

Fed chief Powell pushes back on negative interest rates - (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday pushed back against a favorite talking point of President Donald Trump’s, telling Congress that the negative interest rates sought by Trump aren’t appropriate for a U.S. economy with ongoing growth, a strong labor market and steady inflation. Powell over the course of a 90-minute hearing before the Joint Economic Committee dodged several efforts to pull him into pre-election-year politics, alternately saying that the Fed’s job was not to set trade, immigration or federal spending policies, weigh in on Democratic candidates’ wealth tax and other proposals, or dole out credit for the U.S. economy’s record-setting expansion, now in its 11th year.  But the Fed chief did wade into the economics of the negative rates of interest that countries including Switzerland and Germany currently pay on their government bonds. Trump has repeatedly called for Powell’s Fed to cut rates and deliver the same for his government, on Tuesday in New York telling the Fed to “give me some of that money.” “Negative interest rates would certainly not be appropriate in the current environment,” Powell said in response to a question about why European countries can in effect tax their bondholders by paying back less than is borrowed. “Our economy is in a strong position. We have growth, we have a strong consumer sector, we have inflation ... You tend to see negative rates in the larger economies at times when growth is quite low and inflation is quite low. That’s just not the case here,” he said. Powell’s opening statement, in fact, emphasized that even after a year in which many market analysts saw a rising risk of a U.S. recession, the Fed’s outlook is for continued growth.

Powell- No 'day of reckoning' coming for the US anytime soon - Amid a roaring stock market and ever-increasing levels of corporate and government debt, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Thursday he does not see signs of bubbles brewing or immediate dangers being posed by trillion-dollar deficits. “If you look at today’s economy, there’s nothing that’s really booming now that would want to bust,” Powell said in testimony before the House Budget Committee. “In other words, it’s a pretty sustainable picture.” He added that the dollar’s status as the global reserve currency is helping forestall any trouble from the nation’s growing debt load, which just surpassed $23 trillion. “We are the strongest country, we have the best institutions, we have the best labor force,” he said. “We have such strengths, and I think possibly the day of reckoning could be quite far off.” The central bank chief responded to a question as to whether he sees, as former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan did in 1996, signs of “irrational exuberance” in financial markets, as well as another about the status of the government’s fiscal picture. While stocks continued to rise after Greenspan made the now-iconic observation, the line often is cited as a warning shot for the dot-com bust that would happen a few years later. In the current case, stock market averages have continued to make new highs. Corporate debt is close to $6.5 trillion, nearly double where it was leading into the financial crisis. Overall, the U.S. economy is in the midst of its longest period of growth, a gain that dates to mid-2009 that has generally been slower than other recoveries but also steady. Powell said the nature of expansions now is to last longer than they have in the past. “We think that really is because we are no longer facing high and volatile inflation,” he said. “What we’ve seen is three of the four longest business cycles in U.S. recorded history have been quite recent.”

 Fed can no longer ignore the economic ‘shocks’ of climate change, Brainard says  - Many of the world’s top central banks want to move the global financial system away from a reliance on industries — including fossil-fuel giants  — that scientists largely have cited as posing increased risk for contributing to extreme changes in weather, large fires, rising sea levels and flooding.Thus far, the Fed has been the laggard among is central-bank peers in this regard.  However, a rapidly changing climate may present just the kind of “shock” to the economic system that she and colleagues believe can no longer be ignored, Fed Gov. Lael Brainard said in prepared remarks to the summit.“Because there is considerable uncertainty about the persistence, breadth, and magnitude of climate-related shocks to the economy, it could be challenging to assess what adjustments to monetary policy are likely to be most effective at keeping the economy operating at potential with maximum employment and price stability,” Brainard wrote in prepared remarks.  “Increasingly, it will be important for the Federal Reserve to take into account the effects of climate change and associated policies in setting monetary policy to achieve our objectives of maximum employment and price stability,” she said. Not only are there short-term natural disasters like the wild fires in California, but “to the extent that climate change and the associated policy responses affect productivity and long-run economic growth, there may be implications for the long-run neutral level of the real interest rate, which is a key consideration in monetary policy,” Brainard said. In one paper presented in San Francisco, the authors said climate change could subtract 7% from real world per-capita gross domestic product by 2100. A separate essay weighed the effectiveness of taxing carbon against subsidies that boosted wind and solar power. Yet another paper took the position that trade agreements should be more transparent on their effect in boosting greenhouse-gas emissions.

Q4 GDP Forecasts: 0.3% to 1.5% - From Merrill Lynch: We continue to track 1.9% for 3Q GDP tracking. 4Q tracking is at 1.5%. [Nov 15 estimate]  From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report  The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 0.4% for 2019:Q4. [Nov 15 estimate]   And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow:  The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in thefourth quarter of 2019 is 0.3 percent on November 15, down from 1.0 percent on November 8. [Nov 15 estimate] CR Note: These early estimates suggest real GDP growth will be between 0.3% and 1.5% annualized in Q4.

The Trumpian World as Natural Experiment - Menzie Chinn -  The Trump economic policy regime (if it can be called that) has provided several “natural experiments”. Do corporate tax rate reductions “pay for themselves”? Does expansionary fiscal policy at full employment lead to large increases in output? Does increasing trade protection necessarily lead to an increase in the trade balance? Does a bellicose and confused trade negotiating stance accelerate fixed investment? I think the answers are No, No, No, and No. On this last point, see Altig et al. on Macroblog: Amid reports of softening manufacturing conditions in the U.S., slowing growth in payroll employment, and a drop-off in business investment, it’s natural to wonder whether trade policy is at least partly to blame. Professional forecasters seem to think so. For instance, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that the U.S.-China trade dispute will shave roughly three-fourths of a percent from global output by 2020, which, as the IMF’s managing director noted, is “equivalent to the whole economy of Switzerland.” Over the past year and a half, we have been keenly interested in how trade policy worries affect business decision making. In August 2018, we reported that trade concerns prompted about 1 in 5 firms to re-evaluate their capital investment decisions. At the same time, only 6 percent of the firms in our sample had then decided to cut or defer previously planned capital expenditures in response to trade policy developments. Early this year, we noted that the hit to aggregate investment from trade tensions and tariff worries was modest in 2018, but firms believed the impact would increase in 2019.…Twelve percent of surveyed firms reported cutting or postponing capital expenditures in the first six months of 2019 because of trade tensions and tariff worries (see exhibit 1). That’s twice the share when we asked the same question a year earlier. Given the capital-intensive nature of manufacturing, it is perhaps more concerning that one in five manufacturing firms now report cutting or postponing capital expenditures because of trade policy tensions. We also find that tariff hikes and trade policy tensions now exert a larger negative impact on gross U.S. business investment. Exhibit 2 uses SBU data on whether firms changed their capital expenditures due to trade policy tensions and, if so, by how much and in which direction. Column (1) reports the average percentage impact in the sample, where we weight each firm’s response by its capital stock value. To estimate the dollar impact of trade policy developments in column (2), we multiply the weighted-average percent change by actual U.S. business investment in the first half of 2019, which yields an estimated effect on U.S. business investment of about minus $40 billion.

 Fed chief Jerome Powell urges Congress to tackle growing budget deficit as it nears $1 trillion – Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Thursday urged Congress to tackle the growing budget deficit but also underscored the current health of the nation’s economy. Powell’s testimony before the House Budget Committee came a day after he told Congress’ Joint Economic Committee that the Fed was likely to keep rates unchanged in the coming months, unless there were a “material” shift in the economic outlook. Powell is one of the few leading public figures urging Congress to reduce the federal government’s annual deficit, which is nearing $1 trillion. A large deficit will make it harder for Congress to cut taxes or boost spending when the next recession hits, Powell noted. That is a concern because, with the Fed’s benchmark interest rate already low, the Fed also has a limited ability to respond to downturns. “It’s very important that Congress be able to support the economy because we won’t have as much room to cut,” he said. Powell’s remarks came two weeks after the Fed cut its short-term rate to a range of just 1.5 percent to 1.75 percent, its third cut this year. The Fed took those steps to offset slowing global growth and the drag created by the U.S.-China trade war. Both have caused businesses to cut back on investment spending and have driven down factory output. Historically, the Fed has cut its rate by about 5 percentage points in recessions. Still, Powell also emphasized his view that the economy is likely to keep growing, with little sign of a bubble in stocks or other assets that could later burst. “There is no reason to believe that the probability of a recession is elevated at this time,” Powell said. “We don’t see the warning signs that appeared in other cycles, yet.” The downturn in manufacturing is being offset by strong consumer spending, he added. 

October Budget Deficit Surges 34% To $134 Billion, Worst In Five Years - One month after the Treasury reported that in fiscal 2019 the US budget deficit hit $984 billion, a 26% increase from a year earlier, and the largest annual deficit since 2012's $1.1 trillion, today the US Treasury released the latest monthly deficit data which revealed that in October, the first month of Fiscal 2020, the US deficit shortfall hit $134 billion, a $34 billion, or 34%, increase to the $100 billion deficit in October 2018, bigger than the average forecast of $130 billion. October's deficit was the biggest in five years, just shy of the $136.5 billion in October 2015, and sets the US on the path to surpassing a $1 trillion deficit for the first time in eight years. In the first month of fiscal 2020, income of $246 billion dropped 2.8% from a year earlier, while spending of $380 billion jumped 7.6%. The biggest sources of income were individual income taxes ($126 billion), social insurance and retirement ($90 billion), while the biggest outlays were social security ($89 billion), national defense ($71 billion), medicare ($56 billion) and health ($51) billion, while the US Treasury spent $33 billion on interest on the Federal debt, roughly the same that it spent on veterans' benefits, education, and agriculture combined. The monthly deficit would have been greater had Trump not imposed tariffs on Chinese goods: in October, customs duties boosted US revenue by $7.8 billion, up from $5.6 billion a year ago, and represents tariffs U.S. companies paid on imports of Chinese merchandise. In October, the cumulative 12-month deficit gap hit 4.7% of GDP, the largest since May 2013. The US has not had a full-year budget surplus since 2001. So far this year, the CBO's forecast is spot on: the budget office estimated the October deficit would be $133 billion, and it sees the total federal deficit topping $1 trillion in the current and 2021 fiscal years, about 5 % of GDP. Addressing Congress earlier on Wednesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that "the federal budget is on an unsustainable path" that ultimately could limit lawmakers’ ability to support the economy in a downturn. During the question-and-answer period before the Joint Economic Committee, Powell said lawmakers can’t ignore deficits and that it’s important for the economy to grow faster than debt. Alas, one look at the CBO's long term debt forecast suggests that by that definition, the US is probably doomed.

 Leaked US Memo Confirms NATO Ally Turkey Pursuing “Ethnic Cleansing” in Syria -  Though Erdogan has never made a secret of his desire to redraw Syria’s map of Kurds and Arabs via his Turkish military incursion in northern Syria, and in the months prior to his ordering the operation even made statements tantamount to an open policy of ethnic cleansing, it was surprising how easily the White House gave the green light a month ago despite Ankara’s stated aims.  But now a leaked internal US government memo published by The New York Times spells it out clearly, and underscores the fact that everyone in Washington knows NATO’s second largest military is now engaged in ongoing ethnic cleansing. The internal State Department memo states bluntly the Turks are conducting “an intentioned-laced effort at ethnic cleansing.”   The memo further describes Turkey’s Islamist ground proxies in the so-called ‘Syrian National Army’ (or formerly FSA) as carrying out horrific human rights violations and summary executions of Kurdish fighters and civilians, calling the abuses “what can only be described as war crimes and ethnic cleansing.” The memo urged greater US action in pushing back against invading Turkish forces: “we have a chance to minimize the damage for us and hopefully correct some of the impact of Turkey’s current policies, as we seek to implement the president’s guidance for our presence in northeastern Syria,” it said. Roebuck also called America’s current policy in Syria “a catastrophic sideshow.” “One day when the diplomatic history is written,” he said, “people will wonder what happened here and why officials didn’t do more to stop it or at least speak out more forcefully to blame Turkey for its behavior…” in reference to Ankara’s ethnic cleansing campaign which has brought Syrian Kurds and Christians in its cross hairs.

  Pentagon Claims US Authority to Shoot Any Syrian Govt Official Who Tries to Take Control of Syrian Oil Pentagon officials asserted Thursday U.S. military authority over Syrian oil fields because U.S. forces are acting under the goal of "protecting Americans from terrorist activity" and would be within their rights to shoot a representative of the Syrian government who attempted to retake control over that country's national resource. The comments came from Pentagon spokesperson Jonathan Hoffman and Navy Rear Admiral William D. Byrne Jr. during a press briefing in which the two men were asked repeatedly about the legal basis the U.S. is claiming to control Syrian oil fields. The briefing came less than two weeks after Defense Secretary Mark Esper said, "That's our mission, to secure the oil fields" in the Deir ez-Zor area of eastern Syria. President Donald Trump's comments before and after that remark —"We're going to be protecting [the oil], and we'll be deciding what we're going to do with it in the future," and "The oil... can help us, because we should be able to take some"— were seized on by critics who claimed Trump was suggesting violating international law by plundering another country's resources and openly saying the U.S. was pursuing war for oil. Hoffman, in his comments Thursday, gave a different message—that "the revenue from this is not going to the U.S. This is going to the SDF," referring to the Kurdish-led and U.S.-allied Syrian Democratic Forces, who are battling ISIS. Byrne claimed that the U.S. has been waging the oil field control mission alongside SDF and that the goal was to prevent ISIS from obtaining the oil revenue. But, as one reporter pointed out, ISIS fighters "have no armor. They have no aircraft." "Do they have the capability to actually seize the oil fields?" the reporter asked. "And isn't this really about Russia and Syria seizing those oil fields?" Hoffman replied that the goal was "to prevent a resurgence" of ISIS which would be facilitated if the terrorist group had access to the oil revenue. When the Pentagon officials were pressed on whether "U.S. troops have the... authorization to shoot if a representative of the Syrian government comes to the.. oil fields and says, 'I am here to take property of these oil fields,'" Byrne said, "our commanders always retain the right and the obligation of self-defense when faced with a hostile act or demonstrated hostile intent."

Trump showed he doesn’t understand Turkey — while standing next to Turkey’s president - Both Republican and Democratic lawmakers were wary about Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s visit to the White House on Wednesday, calling the timing of the meeting, just one month after Ankara invaded northeastern Syria, “inappropriate.”President Donald Trump probably should have taken their advice.During a joint press conference Wednesday afternoon, Trump stood alongside Erdoğan — whom Trump said he’s a “big fan of” — and let the Turkish leader repeat his talking points, unchallenged. The US president proved himself to be woefully unprepared, or indifferent, to what’s actually going on in Turkey.Two moments stood out, both of which came in the question-and-answer session. The first was when Trump encouraged Erdoğan to call on a Turkish journalist for a question. “Would you like to pick somebody?” Erdoğan responded in Turkish, and Trump continued: “A friendly person from Turkey, friendly. Only friendly reporters. We like to see, there aren’t too many of them around.”But in Turkey pretty much the only reporters around are friendly to the president. Since the 2016 failed coup attempt, Turkey has jailed more journalists than any other country in the world for three years straight. According to the Committee to Protect Journalists, 68 journalists were jailed in Turkey last year alone. And that doesn’t include other dissidents or Erdoğan’s perceived political enemies who’ve been arrested in the thousands.Toward the end of the press conference, Trump discussed the US’s relationship with the Kurds.  Both Republican and Democratic lawmakers have condemned to Trump’s abandonment of the US’s Kurdish partners, and have tried to push legislation to punish Turkey. But on Wednesday, Trump had a different, very wrong take. “We have a great relationship with the Kurds,” he began. “We’re with them now, we get along with them.” Then he kept talking: “And, by the way, I think the president [Erdoğan], he may have some factions within the Kurds, but I think the president has a great relationship with the Kurds,” Trump continued. “Many Kurds live currently in Turkey, and they’re happy and they’re taken care of.” This is an astounding claim: Erdoğan considered the Kurdish presence across the border as an existential threat, as he sees some of the Syrian Kurds as maintaining ties to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), an insurgent group in Turkey that’s waged a decades-long war against the Turkish state. But Erdoğan basically considers all Kurds in Syria terrorists; his invasion has created a humanitarian crisis as thousands of civilians fled the fighting. Kurds have also historically faced discrimination in Turkey, and Erdoğan is actively cracking down on Kurdish groups, alleging that catch-all “terrorist” link.

Here's The Moment Erdogan's White House Visit Took A Dark Turn --It was clear in yesterday's press briefing during President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's visit to the White House, where he didn't actually receive much push back from either President Trump or the press (at one point Trump requested that only a "friendly" reporter from Turkey ask questions of Erdogan), that the touchy subject of Turkey's acquirement of Russia's S-400 anti-air system was front and center in closed door conversations.  But Erdogan appeared unmoved by whatever pressure he may have faced in the Oval, given he later told reporters while standing next to the US president that Turkey cannot possibly discard the S-400 due to its strategic ties wit Russia, but he also added, “I’ve told Mr. Trump that we’re ready to buy Patriots.” And according to Bloomberg, his only hint at "compromise" came in the form of offering to participate in a NATO-coordinated working group where defense officials from both sides would resolve issues of top concern for the alliance related to NATO's second largest military deploying a Russian advanced system on its soil. But more interesting are the details which came out of the unprecedented meeting with five Republican Senators at the White House who are lead Congressional skeptics of Turkey - unprecedented given that it was attended by Erdogan - in order to "clear the air" as the White House previously described it.It appeared to to do anything but, as Axios reports, the whole meeting was upended and took a "dark turn" when Erdogan took out his iPad:An Oval Office meeting yesterday with Turkey's President Erdoğan took a dark turn when Erdoğan pulled out his iPad and made the group watch a propaganda video that depicted Kurds as terrorists, according to three sources familiar with the meeting.To be  expected, what was described as a "clunky propaganda film" was unpersuasive, given that Sen. Lindsey Graham, perhaps the most vocal Republican Erdogan critic, questioned sarcastically immediately after—"Well, do you w ant me to go get the Kurds to make one about what you've done?" The short film had depicted US-backed Kurdish militias operating in Syria and along the border as "terrorists".

Turkish media paints White House visit as Erdoğan triumph over Trump -  Turkish media are seizing on President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s comments that President Trump had “no reaction” to his returning the American leader’s notorious letter to him, saying it shows a clear victory over Trump. A headline in Sabah Daily, a pro-government media outlet, said that international media were reporting that Erdoğan returned the “scandalous” letter to Trump and the American president was “silent.” The Turkish president was careful not push his criticism of Trump too far during a briefing with reporters following the two leaders’ summit, but he did use his platform to attack his detractors in the U.S. Congress. One headline in Turkey’s Hurriyet Daily quoted the Turkish leader talking about Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.): “I told him what he needed, he learned his lesson.” Graham was one of five senators invited into the Oval Office meeting with Erdoğan. He pushed back on the Turkish president’s claims that U.S. Kurdish allies in Syria are terrorists. Erdoğan, speaking in Turkish at a press conference with Trump on Wednesday, made a point of highlighting the letter. He said he had brought Trump’s Oct. 9 letter from Trump back to the White House to return it. Trump’s letter, written in a decidedly non-presidential tone, warned Erdoğan he’d be remembered as a devil if he didn’t back off his planned offensive in Syria to clear out Kurdish forces allied with the U.S. in the fight against ISIS. Erdoğan’s statement that he had returned the letter to Trump contradicted earlier reports that the Turkish leader had thrown the correspondence in the garbage upon receipt.

 Most Veterans Don’t Think Afghanistan And Iraq Are Worth It – The majority of U.S. military veterans say America's most recent wars were not worth fighting, according to the results of a recent Pew Research Center survey published ahead of Veterans Day.   - In addition to polling 1,087 former service members on their opinions of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Pew survey attempted to gauge differences in wartime experiences between different generations of service members, whether or not they believed the military prepared them to transition to civilian life, their opinion of the Department of Veterans Affairs, and whether they remained proud of their service, among other things. Here are some of the key takeaways from the Pew survey:

Former Israeli soldiers tour US to speak out against occupation of Palestinian territories - A group of former Israeli combat soldiers are in the midst of a US tour to speak out about the reality of the long-term occupation of the Palestinian territories. The tour, which began in Philadelphia last week, has been organized by Breaking the Silence, an organization of veteran soldiers who “have taken it upon themselves to expose the public to the reality of everyday life in the occupied territories.” Breaking the Silence was founded in 2004. As explained on its website, “we collect and publish testimonies from soldiers who, like us, have served in the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem since September 2000.” “Soldiers who serve in the territories witness and participate in military actions that change them immensely,” Breaking the Silence reports. “Cases of abuse toward Palestinians, looting and destruction of property have been the norm for years, but these incidents are still described officially as ‘extreme’ and ‘unique’ cases. Our testimonies portray a different—and much grimmer—picture, in which the deterioration of moral standards finds expression in the character of the military orders and rules of engagement that the state considers justified in the name of Israel’s security.” The organization holds lectures and other events, conducts tours in Hebron and the South Hebron Hills in the West Bank, and collects testimonies, including video testimonies, from soldiers who have served in the territories. It has collected such testimonies from more than 1,000 Israeli soldiers; a reflection of the growing disenchantment, especially among young people and those who have seen the reality of occupation, over what has become a permanent and vicious assault on the fundamental rights of the Palestinian people in the lands occupied by Israel after the 1967 War. The statements from the soldiers are all “meticulously researched,” confirmed by other witnesses, and cross-checked. Most of the soldiers ask for anonymity, due to pressures from within the military as well as outside. Breaking the Silence has been denounced as “unpatriotic” and “traitors” inside Israel, and has faced what it describes as “violent intimidation and persecution.”

 Twitter Boss Met Mohammed Bin Salman Six Months After Saudi Spy Discovered — Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey met with Mohammed bin Salman six months after the social media giant learned that a spy, directed by the Saudi leader’s close associate, had infiltrated the company. Since becoming de facto leader of the kingdom in 2017, the crown prince has waged a harsh crackdown on human rights activists and dissidents, much of which has been played out online. Lawyers for one of the Saudi dissidents targetted in the operation say Dorsey and Mohammed bin Salman’s meeting raises questions about what the CEO of Twitter, a company which has seen massive Saudi investment in recent years, knew and when he knew it. In December 2015, according to a complaint filed in a US district court in California last month, Twitter discovered that one of its engineers, a Saudi citizen named Ali Alzabarah, had been accessing the personal data of users. A week later, the company warned several dozen users that their accounts were among a small group that “may have been targeted by state-sponsored actors”.  Yet in June 2016, Dorsey sat down with the then-deputy crown prince, reportedly discussing how the two could cooperate to “train and qualify Saudi cadres” and chatting about technology investments.  Their chat in New York City was documented in photos posted on social media by Bader al-Asaker, head of Mohammed bin Salman’s private office and the man believed to be the Saudi official alleged in court records to have overseen the data-collection operation inside Twitter.

Attorney: 9/11 secrets were motive for murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi -Speculation about the motive for Khashoggi’s assassination inside Saudi Arabia’s consulate in Istanbul has centered on his outspoken criticism of the Saudi government and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, also known as MBS, in opinion pieces published in the Post. Now, a new potential motive is in play.“Khashoggi was killed not because he was a dissident, but because of his contact with us,” said James Kreindler, a prominent New York attorney who represents thousands of 9/11 family members and survivors who are suing Saudi Arabia.A month after Saudi-born Khashoggi was allegedly killed and dismembered by a Saudi hit team on Oct. 2, 2018, the U.S. intelligence community disclosed intercepts of communications with Khashoggi’s phone to others. One exchange was with Khalid bin Salman, Crown Prince Mohammed’s younger brother who was then serving as the Saudi ambassador to the U.S.  The Post reported that unnamed intelligence sources said Khalid told Khashoggi “he should go to the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul to pick up the documents he needed” for his planned marriage to a Turkish woman he’d met in May 2018. KBS, as Khalid is also known, “gave him assurances that it would be safe to do so.”  Within hours of publication, Khalid took to Twitter to respond personally. “As we told the Washington Post the last contact I had with Mr. Khashoggi was via text on Oct 26 2017. I never talked to him by phone and certainly never suggested he go to Turkey for any reason. According to Kreindler, Oct. 26, 2017 was also the day Khashoggi had met with an investigator for the 9/11 families in Washington.  “Khashoggi was part of the intelligence community and we knew he knew a lot about the Saudi government’s involvement in 9/11. He was connected to the Muslim Brotherhood and to [former Saudi Crown Prince] Muhammad bin Nayef, and that’s the reason our investigator went to speak with him,” said Kreindler. “She said would you come to New York and talk to my boss? He said yes. “I’m sure that as soon as she left, he called KBS [Khalid bin Salman] and said, ‘Look, the 9/11 lawyers are on to me. They know that I know what you guys did and I didn’t give ‘em anything, but you’re holding my kid in Saudi Arabia and if you harm him I will.’ So my belief is that Khashoggi was killed not because he was a dissident, there are lots of dissidents, but because he was holding this ax over the Saudis’ heads.”

'The Real Ukraine Controversy'- John Solomon Exposes How Rogue US Embassy Conducted Foreign Policy - The first time I ever heard the name of U.S. ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch was in early March of this year. It did not come from a Ukrainian or an ally of President Trump. It came from a career diplomat I was interviewing on background on a different story.The diplomat, as I recall, suggested that Yovanovitch had just caused a commotion in Ukraine a few weeks before that country’s presidential election by calling for the firing of one of the prosecutors aligned with the incumbent president.The diplomat related that a more senior State official, David Hale, was about  to travel to Ukraine and was prepping to be confronted about Yovanovitch’s comments. I remember the diplomat joking something to the effect of, “we always say that the Geneva Convention is optional for our Kiev staff.”The Geneva Convention is the UN-backed pact enacted during the Cold War that governs the conduct of foreign diplomats in host countries and protects them against retribution. But it strictly mandates that foreign diplomats “have a duty not to interfere in the internal affairs of that State” that hosts them. You can read the convention’s rules here. I dutifully checked out my source’s story. And sure as day, Yovanovitch did give a speech on March 5, 2019 calling for Ukraine’s special anticorruption prosecutor to be removed. You can read that here.And the Ukraine media was abuzz that she had done so. And yes, Under Secretary of State Hale, got peppered with questions upon arriving in Kiev, specifically about whether Yovanovitch’s comments violated the international rule that foreign diplomats avoid becoming involved in the internal affairs and elections of their host country. Hale dutifully defended Yovanovitch with these careful words. “Well, Ambassador Yovanovitch represents the President of the United States here in Ukraine, and America stands behind her statements.  And I don’t see any value in my own elaboration on what they may or may not have meant. They meant what she said.” You can read his comments here.

 Trump might attend Russia's Victory Day military parade, which would be a huge win for Putin - President Donald Trump on Friday he's "certainly" considering accepting Russian President Vladimir Putin's invitation to attend Russia's Victory Day parade in 2020. Doing so would offer a major public relations victory to Putin at a time of historic animosity between Moscow and Washington. "It's a very big deal, celebrating the end of the war," Trump said to reporters on the annual military parade in Moscow, which commemorates the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II. The parade takes place in Moscow's Red Square on May 9 each year. The president said he's "thinking about" joining for the parade, but signaled it could be difficult because it occurs in the midst of the 2020 presidential campaign season. "I would love to go if I could," Trump said. The reporter who asked Trump if he's planning to accept Putin's invitation referred to the event as the "May Day" parade, which is a reference to International Worker's Day on May 1 and not the same as Russia's Victory Day parade. Putin invited Trump to the Victory Day parade in late June, which was announced by the Russian president's spokesman after the two leaders met on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in Osaka, Japan.

 US Threatens Sanctions On Serbia, Scrambles To Thwart Possible S-400 Purchase - In a largely unreported but hugely important story that played out this week in the Balkans, Washington is putting immense pressure on Serbia to shelve future plans for acquiring Russia's advanced S-400 air defense missile systems. The controversy began Wednesday when Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic told a public television broadcaster in an interview that he had a desire to purchase the S-400 but lacked the funding to do so, and at one point said "Serbia was ready to accept S-400s from Russia as a gift," according to TASS. "You know, when you have such a weapon, no one would attack you. Neither US nor any other pilots fly where S-400s are operational: Israeli pilots do not fly either over Turkey or Syria, except for the Golan Heights. We have aviation, which the strongest than ever before. We will be strengthening the air defense with Pantsyr systems and other things, which are not on the sanctions list," Vucic said in the interview.This after Serbia is still reeling from what Belgrade and much of the public considers the 'illegal' US-NATO bombing of Yugoslavia in 1999, and later formal recognition of breakaway Kosovo as a republic under the Bush administration. The president explained that he had attended the Slavic Shield-2019 Russian-Serbian drills in order to personally inspect the Russian systems and view their capabilities, which included Pantsyr-S anti-aircraft missiles.Prior to the interview at least one notable Serbian newspaper reported that Belgrade was mulling purchase of the S-400 anti-air systems on long-term credit, with rumors that Serbian officers had even already begun limited training on the systems.  But as Russia's TASS reported, all of this was enough to trigger US diplomatic threats and intervention:

Trump hikes price tag for US forces in Korea almost 500% as Seoul questions alliance - Secretary of Defense Mark Esper landed in South Korea on Thursday to navigate renewed threats from an "enraged" North Korea and newly heightened strain in the alliance with Seoul that congressional aides, lawmakers and Korea experts say has been caused by President Donald Trump. Trump is demanding that South Korea pay roughly 400% more in 2020 to cover the cost of keeping US troops on the peninsula, a congressional aide and an administration official confirmed to CNN. The price hike has frustrated Pentagon officials and deeply concerned Republican and Democratic lawmakers, according to military officials and congressional aides. It has angered and unnerved Seoul, where leaders are questioning US commitment to their alliance and wondering whether Trump will pull US forces if they don't pay up. "Nothing says I love you like a shakedown," said Vipin Narang, an associate professor at MIT who follows the Korean peninsula, summarizing South Korean uncertainty about the US. In the US, congressional aides and Korea experts familiar with the talks say the President's $4.7 billion demand came out of thin air, sending State and Defense Department officials scrambling to justify the number with a slew of new charges that may include Seoul paying some costs for US personnel present on the peninsula and for troops and equipment that rotate through. Negotiations are underway as North Korea threatens to step up its weapons development, deepening Seoul's anxiety. On Thursday, Pyongyang condemned US-South Korean joint military exercises, saying it was "enraged" and threatening to respond with "force in kind." North Korea has already launched 24 missiles this year, each a violation of UN resolutions, to match the country's previous annual record for firing off projectiles that threaten South Korea and Japan, according to Bruce Klingner, a senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation.

U.S. to Revisit Greenland Approach in D.C. Meeting With Danes - Three months after Donald Trump’s efforts to buy Greenland were rebuffed, talks targeting the island are being resumed, this time with a focus on investments and security. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is due to meet with Danish Foreign Minister Jeppe Kofod in Washington D.C. on Wednesday to discuss the strategically important Arctic territory. “We want the Arctic to remain a low-tension area so it is very important to have a close cooperation with the U.S. in terms of presence and enforcement,” Kofod said in a phone interview, after confirming the meeting was taking place. Greenland, which is an independent territory inside the Kingdom of Denmark, became the focus of an international spat in August when Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen rejected Trump’s bid to buy the island. The incident prompted the U.S. president to cancel a state visit to Denmark, after Frederiksen referred to the discussion as “absurd.” Trump responded by calling her remark “nasty.” The two ultimately resolved the dispute over the phone. Kofod declined to comment on whether the U.S. is still pursuing a purchase of Greenland. “This meeting is a way for us to discuss their interest and presence and a way to transform their interest in Greenland into investments,” he said. Kofod underlined the importance of maintaining good ties with the U.S. after Denmark in October approved the construction of the Russian gas pipeline Nord Stream 2. The go-ahead for the link, which will pass through Danish waters, had been the final hurdle for the $11 billion project. The White House had objected to the pipeline, urging European countries to diversify their energy supply and to reduce Russian economic interests in the region. U.S. officials have warned that project partners risk facing sanctions.

 MSM Adamantly Avoids The Word “Coup” In Bolivia Reporting - Caitlin Johnstone --There has been a military coup in Bolivia backed by violent right-wing  rioters and the US government, but you’d hardly know this from any of the mainstream media headlines.“Bolivian President Evo Morales steps down following accusations of election fraud” proclaims CNN.“Bolivia’s Morales resigns amid scathing election report, rising protests” reports The Washington Post.“Bolivian Leader Evo Morales Steps Down” says The New York Times.“Bolivian President Evo Morales resigns amid fraud poll protests” declares the BBC.“President of Bolivia steps down amid allegations of election rigging” we are informed by Telegraph.“Bolivia’s President Morales resigns after backlash to disputed election” says the Sydney Morning Herald.So there you have it. The indigenous leader of a socialist South American government which has successfully lifted masses of people out of crushing poverty, which happens to control the world’s largest reserves of lithium (which may one day replace oil as a crucial energy resource due to its use in powering smartphones, laptops, hybrid and electric cars), which has an extensive and well-documented history of being targeted for regime change by the US government, simply stepped down due to some sort of scandal involving a “disputed election”. Nothing to do with the fact that right-wing mobs had been terrorizing this leader’s family, or the fact that the nation’s military literally commanded him to step down and are now currently searching for him to arrest him, leading to ousted government officials being rounded up and held captive by soldiers wearing masks. All perfectly normal and not suspicious at all.

Amazon suing Pentagon over $10B cloud contract, alleging ‘bias’ - Amazon is going to court to overturn the Pentagon’s decision to award Microsoft a cloud computing contract worth up to $10 billion, claiming the selection process for the so-called JEDI program was injected with "unmistakable bias" and "political influence."The Pentagon last month named Microsoft the winner in the Joint Enterprise Defense Infrastructure program after President Donald Trump publicly questioned whether the competition unfairly favored Amazon. "Numerous aspects of the JEDI evaluation process contained clear deficiencies, errors, and unmistakable bias — and it’s important that these matters be examined and rectified," Amazon Web Services said in a statement today. Federal Times first reported the news. Its protest, which is being filed in the U.S. Court of Federal Claims, marks the latest hurdle for the contentious program, which has drawn a series of lawsuits, protests and a Department of Defense inspector general investigation.  Oracle, which was previously cut from the competition, also filed an appeal today with the U.S. Court of Appeals after a judge previously ruled against its allegations that the winner-takes-all contract unfairly limited competition. Oracle is also seeking an injunction to stop Microsoft from beginning work on the program while the case is tried.  Amazon says it believes it "is uniquely experienced and qualified to provide the critical technology the U.S. military needs, and remains committed to supporting the DoD’s modernization efforts. “We also believe it's critical for our country that the government and its elected leaders administer procurements objectively and in a manner that is free from political influence," the company added.

Former US Secretary of State Kissinger points to danger of “catastrophic” conflict between US and China - Former US Secretary of State and National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger has warned of an inevitable “conflict” between the US and China, with a potentially “catastrophic” outcome. Speaking at an event organised by the National Committee on US-China Relations in New York on Thursday, Kissinger said “the future of the world depends” on the US-China relationship. “There is no doubt many aspects of the evolution of China are challenging to the US,” adding, “What is imperative is that both countries understand that a permanent conflict between them cannot be won. There will be a catastrophic outcome if it leads to a permanent conflict.” If no resolution is achieved, the ensuing conflict “will be worse than the world wars that ruined European civilisation,” he said. “It is no longer possible to think that one side can dominate the other,” he said. “They have to get used to the fact that they have that kind of rivalry.” Kissinger, who said he was “confident” leaders on both sides would realise the issues at stake, knows that historical experience speaks against such an outcome. Kissinger’s warning came after Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, toured Asia in September and called the region the top priority for the US military amid rising “great power competition” between the United States and China. In his book On China, published in 2012, Kissinger referred to the memorandum issued in 1907 by British Foreign Office official Eyre Crowe, who had been tasked with examining relations between Britain and Germany. Crowe concluded that whatever the intentions of Germany’s rulers, its economic rise meant that conflict was inevitable. It broke out, as Kissinger noted, just seven years after the memorandum had been issued. Kissinger cited this experience in his book to warn against US-China relations heading in the same direction, with the same outcome. But in the time since then, tensions have steadily increased. Starting under the Obama administration, the view has steadily developed in both the military-intelligence and political establishments that the rise of China constitutes an existential threat to the economic and military hegemony of the US. Thus, the increasing bellicosity of the Trump administration and its escalating trade war against Beijing is the expression of forces emanating from deep within the very foundations of the American state.

Charges: Chinese surveillance goods illegally sold to US - A Long Island firm sold tens of millions of dollars in Chinese-made surveillance and other sensitive security equipment to customers, including the U.S. military to use on aircraft carriers, by falsely claiming the goods were manufactured in America, federal prosecutors said Thursday. The fraud that prosecutors allege by Aventura Technologies Inc. raised "a grave concern" over cyber security, U.S. Attorney Richard Donoghue said. Though there was no allegation of breaches involving the Chinese government, emails and other evidence from the investigation showed "individuals in China were well aware of what was going on," Donoghue said. The equipment made in China and sold by Aventura "as purportedly U.S.-made has been installed on dozens of Army, Navy and Air Force bases, Department of Energy facilities and, among other places, on Navy aircraft carriers," prosecutors said in the criminal complaint. Of the $88 million Aventura made since 2010, $20 million came from federal government contracts promising it would provide only U.S.-made products, they said. Prosecutors accused the company of a cover-up involving systematically relabeling its merchandise to say it was made at its U.S. plant. It also circulated a photo that an Aventura executive, Jack Cabasso, showed the company's assembly line, but was actually an image of workers in a Chinese facility, the complaint said. Last year, Cabasso emailed an employee of a Chinese manufacturer stressing the need to take steps to make sure its products couldn't be traced, prosecutors said. He wrote that "the biggest problem" was that customers might notice the company's initials on circuit boards and asked them to conceal them, they said. The scheme began to unravel after the company sold 25 body cameras to the U.S. Air Force, security analysts discovered downloaded images including a logo of the Chinese Ministry of Public Security on the devices, the complaint said. A software analysis found indications that the camera's manufacturer in China "had been aware that the U.S. Air Force was the intended end user of the camera."

Key Republican senator points to Chinese IP theft as holding up trade deal - Sen. Jim Risch (R-Idaho) on Tuesday pointed to worries about Chinese theft of U.S. intellectual property (IP) as the major issue holding up a U.S.-China trade deal, while also highlighting concerns around U.S. and European use of technology from Chinese telecommunications group Huawei. “What’s holding up trade right now in my judgement is not so much the numbers and the tariffs that are put on, but China has got to develop a rule of law when it comes to handling intellectual property,” Risch, who serves as the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said during an event at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Risch noted that in order to move forward on a trade deal between the two countries, China must “embrace international norms” in regards to IP and not be a “rogue nation that just takes what it wants.” “If they went and tried to take the Mona Lisa out of France, people would be up in arms, but when they come here and take microchip technology, it doesn’t have the same appeal, but it needs to have the same appeal, because modern business, modern industry, modern going forward really relies on technology, so IP is extremely important,” Risch said. Chinese theft of IP has been an ongoing issue, and one that bipartisan members of Congress and 2020 Democratic presidential candidateshave zeroed in on in recent months. According to the findings of a 2018 investigation by the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, Chinese intellectual property theft costs the U.S. between $225 billion and $600 billion annually.

Trump says China cheated America on trade, but he blames US leaders for letting it happen— President Donald Trump renewed his trade attack on China, calling the nation “cheaters” though he blamed the situation on past U.S. leaders. “Since China’s entrance into the World Trade Organization in 2001, no one has manipulated better or taken advantage of the United States more,” Trump said. “I will not say the word ‘cheated,’ but nobody’s cheated better than China, I will say that.” The remarks break a period of relative peace between the two sides, who have been looking to hammer out the first phase of an agreement that would ease some tariffs. Details of a potential deal remain in flux, with the U.S. pushing for more open markets and an elimination of intellectual property theft, while China wants Washington to drop some $250 billion in tariffs imposed since the impasse began. Rather than lay the blame on China, though, Trump said that previous leaders who negotiated trade deals allowed manipulation of the agreements, with results that hurt American workers, particularly those in the manufacturing industry. The president recalled a speech he gave during which he was criticizing the country for its economic practices. “I said, ‘This is not going over well.’ It was in Beijing, this massive hall,” Trump said. “But I said I don’t blame China, I blame China. Then I realized it’s true.” China was not alone in taking heat from the president. Trump also singled out the European Union for unfair trade practices. “Many countries charge us extraordinarily high tariffs or create impossible trade barriers,” he said. “And I’ll be honest, the European Union, very, very difficult. The barriers they have up are terrible, in many ways worse than China.”

 Trump threatens “substantial” increase in anti-China tariffs - US President Trump has threatened to escalate the trade war against China unless an agreement is reached on a “phase one” deal with Beijing. The threat came in a speech to the Economic Club of New York yesterday in which he lauded the policies of his administration and its “America First” agenda. The interim trade deal, agreed to in negotiations last month, was due to have been signed off at the now-cancelled Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation meeting later this week. But no date has been set for a time and place of the signing. There are also doubts over whether an agreement will even be reached because of China’s demand that there has to be some rollback of existing tariffs—a prospect ruled out by Trump in remarks last week. He doubled down on those comments in his address to the New York gathering of corporate chiefs, investors and bankers. Trump claimed a deal with China was “close” but then issued his new threat to escalate the tariffs already imposed—a 25 percent levy on $250 billion worth of mainly industrial products and 15 percent on a further $112 billion worth of goods—if an agreement is not made. “I tell it to everybody: If we don’t make a deal, we’re going to substantially raise those tariffs, they are going to be raised very substantially,” he said. He added a warning that this would be “true for other countries that mistreat us too.” This shot was directed principally at the European Union over negotiations for a trade deal in which the US wants an opening up of European markets for US agricultural products—a move that the EU has insisted is off the table. The Trump administration secured the negotiations in July 2018 under the threat of the imposition of a 25 percent tariff on auto imports on “national security” grounds—a move that would have a devastating impact on the German auto industry. The administration is to decide within the next few days whether to proceed with the new levies. At this stage it is expected to grant a further reprieve, leaving the threat in place, ready to be imposed unless the EU makes concessions.

Tariffs on China Imports Emerge as Hurdle to Trade Deal - Wall Street Journal—Tariffs are emerging as the main stumbling block in efforts by the U.S. and China to come to a limited trade deal, a month after the two countries called a truce in their trade war.The logjam centers on whether the U.S. has agreed to remove existing tariffs in the so-called “phase one” deal that the two countries have been working toward—or whether the U.S. would only cancel tariffs set to take effect Dec. 15, according to people familiar with the talks.

Why China wants Trump re-elected in 2020  -This may sound bizarre, if not plainly wrong. After all, this is the president who has built his reputation partly on being the first US leader to be willing and able to be tough on China.This is the president who took a call from Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-Wen. This is the president who has instigated a trade war with China that has had serious knock-on effects for the global economy. This is the president who has banned the Chinese tech giant Huawei from American 5G (fifth-generation) networks, and has placed visa restrictions on Chinese government officials. Why, then, would China support Trump’s re-election in 2020?It is because President Trump’s policies and rhetoric have proved useful to China in achieving its longer-term, strategic goals.In a variety of serious and far-reaching ways, President Trump’s administration has undermined Washington’s global credibility, and international governance bodies such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the World Trade Organization. The latter of these it now largely ignores – thereby giving other nations, including its trade rival, China, free license to do the same when it comes to the settlement of important global trade disputes.It has also undermined key alliances. For instance, by abandoning America’s Kurdish partners in Syria, the Trump administration sent a message to allies everywhere that Washington can’t be trusted.The White House has, in addition, been indifferent if not antagonistic toward major trading agreements, such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership. While President Trump is busy tearing up key arrangements that have been hugely significant in the US becoming the world’s largest economy, Beijing is pushing ahead with the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, a deal that would link China, India, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations into the largest trading bloc on Earth.

U.S. Signals China Trade Talks in Final, Hardest Steps to a Deal - President Donald Trump’s administration signaled talks with China over the first phase of a broad trade agreement are entering the final stages when the most contentious and complex issues are debated, with no guarantee that another breakdown will be averted. White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow told reporters late Thursday in Washington that “we are coming down to the short strokes” and are “in communication with them every single day.” Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, speaking Friday on Fox Business Network, confirmed there will be a high-level call today, adding that there’ll be a deal “in all likelihood.” As U.S. stocks advanced on optimism for the world’s largest economies, both officials added caveats, with Kudlow acknowledging a deal was close though “not done yet” and Ross saying “the devil is always in the details and we’re down to the last details now.” Today’s call of top trade negotiations from both countries is a sign of progress. Still, the last stages of trade agreements are often where talks break down, and Trump still hasn’t publicly indicated his approval. The two sides were close to concluding a pact about six months ago, only for the U.S. to claim that China backed away from verbal commitments when the time came to sign the deal. “You don’t really have the deal on anything, until you have the deal on everything,” Ross said. “So it’s not surprising that at the very last minute pieces are bouncing around. But I think the main thing is what the president said at the rally last night: China wants to make a deal. We think we’d like to make a deal if it’s the right deal -- this will get made in all likelihood.” Ross described phase one as “relatively limited in its scope. And what’s really being debated is how much limitation will there be on the scope of phase one relative to phase two or maybe phase three.”

US losses from Trump’s China trade war will never be recovered, shipping data tells us -President Trump announced a month ago that his administration had clinched a trade deal with China. Well, actually, the first in a series of deals, which the White House now refers to as “phase one.” Since then, countless declarations of “winning,” but agreeing to a deal only “if the terms are right,” have added to the year and half long conflicting cacophony of rhetoric about the content of any trade agreement with China. Bottom line? The constant bluster has blurred the reality of what a deal would even accomplish, if anything at all. The only way to shovel away the pile of broken promises and contradictory comments is to analyze the flow of maritime trade. Why? With 90% of all items in a house transported over water, it is the purest form of showing supply and demand. The flow of trade is agnostic. It moves regardless of who is “winning” or “losing.” ​The impact of this trade war and the opportunities lost by American businesses both large and small can not only be tracked by the public earnings reports, but through American exports. And a deal, no matter what is agreed on, would never make up for the losses sustained during this trade war, according to calculations based on the decrease in volumes of containers, cargo and tankers that traveled into U.S. ports. For a perspective on the losses, look no further than the Port of Los Angeles, the largest port in the country. U.S. exports to China from the bustling harbor decreased for 12 consecutive months. It suffered a 19.1% drop in export volume when comparing October 2019 with the same month in 2018. China’s retaliatory tariffs hit 96.6% of the purchases of U.S. exports that traveled through the L.A. port complex, with a price tag of $19.9 billion. Add on the additional retaliatory tariffs from the other countries the U.S. is sparring with on trade, and that brings the total of impacted export cargo to $20.2 billion, or 28.8% of all export value through the L.A. port system. Considering 95% of the world’s consumers are outside of the U.S., the tariffs imposed on American goods have priced them out of the global marketplace.

Trump Expected to Delay Tariffs on Imported BMWs and Other European Cars The Trump administration may delay a decision on whether to slap tariffs on European automobiles after an intense lobbying campaign by German carmakers highlighted plans to shift global production to American suppliers, people familiar with the White House deliberations said. In May, President Donald Trump gave himself a deadline of mid-November to decide whether to impose levies on cars and auto parts from the European Union. The EU threatened to retaliate with tariffs on $39 billion of American goods if the president carried out his threat. Trump is expected to extend this week’s deadline again, according to people familiar with the plans, but the president has not yet made a final decision. Following months of heavy lobbying, auto producers including Volkswagen AG and Daimler AG, who have plans to shift parts of their global production to suppliers in the U.S., made headway in convincing U.S. trade negotiators that their investments forestall the need for Trump to follow through on the car tariff threat, which could be as high as 25%, according to the people, who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, in an interview with Bloomberg TV earlier this month, signaled that a postponement was likely. “Our hope is that the negotiations we’ve been having with individual companies about their capital investment plans will bear enough fruit that it may not be necessary to put the 232 fully into effect, may not even be necessary to put it partly in effect,” said Ross, referring to the national-security investigation under Section 232 of a 1962 trade law.

Trump expected to delay European auto tariffs for 6 months, report says - President Donald Trump is expected to push back a decision on whether to impose tariffs on European Union automobile imports for another six months, Politico reported Monday, citing a person familiar with the decision. The Trump administration has until Wednesday to decide whether to slap import tariffs on cars and auto parts. That deadline had already been pushed back from May, when Trump directed U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to seek agreements with the EU and Japan to “address the threatened impairment” of national security from auto imports.Delaying the deadline by another six months would allow Trump to put off a decision on the new duties until the middle of 2020, when the presidential election is ramping up.The White House declined CNBC’s request for comment on Politico’s report. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative did not immediately provide comment. The auto tariff deadline approaches as the U.S. and China continue to edge toward a so-called phase one trade deal. Click here to read Politico’s full report.

 The world’s largest trade deal could be signed in 2020 — and the US isn’t in it - After more than six years of negotiations, more than a dozen countries in Asia Pacific are now aiming to sign what would be the world’s largest trade agreement in 2020. The deal, called Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership or RCEP, involves all 10 countries from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) bloc and five of its major trading partners: Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea. Together, the 15 countries make up close to one-third of the world population and global gross domestic product, according to a Reuters report. That’s larger than other regional trading blocs such as the European Union and the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA. The mega-deal started with 16 countries but India decided not to join the trade pact over concerns that it would hurt the South Asian country’s domestic producers. RCEP was launched in November 2012 in Phnom Penh, Cambodia as an initiative by ASEAN to encourage trade among its member states and six other countries. Those six other countries — Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea — already have standalone free trade agreements with ASEAN. Coming together under RCEP would boost commerce across the group by lowering tariffs, standardizing customs rules and procedures, and widening market access especially among countries that don’t have existing trade deals.

  DACA arguments draw large protests at Supreme Court - The arguments at the Supreme Court over the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program drew crowds of protesters from around the country on Tuesday. Throngs of demonstrators gathered at the steps of the Supreme Court in support of the DACA program, which President Trump moved to end in 2017. Multiple groups quickly challenged his authority to terminate it, and the case has finally reached the nation's highest court. DACA has provided protections for hundreds of thousands of so-called Dreamers against deportation. Protesters filled the Washington streets in front of the court as the initial oral arguments ended, chanting "Up, up with liberation. Down, down with deportation." Videos of the protests showed activists playing drums and other instruments as they marched toward the high court, while other protesters demanded “justice for our people.” Some of those who watched the oral arguments inside the court walked out locking arms to show unification in support of the program. The Supreme Court heard arguments for three cases against the administration's cancellation of DACA. Trump has argued that former President Obama abused his executive power in creating the program, and that ending DACA would curtail illegal immigration in the country. He tweeted Tuesday saying the DACA recipients are “no longer very young, are far from ‘angels,’” describing some as “very tough, hardened criminals.”

 Divided Supreme Court leans toward allowing Trump to end DACA - The Supreme Court on Tuesday was sharply divided over President Trump's move to end Obama-era protections for immigrants who arrived in the U.S. illegally as children, as the justices heard oral arguments in one of the most closely watched cases of the term.Members of the court’s conservative wing appeared wary of allowing the court to review the administration’s decision to begin phasing out the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, which grants deferral from deportation to nearly 700,000 young adult immigrants without legal status.And questions from conservative justices during oral arguments suggested they appeared to think the administration had supplied legally sound reasons for eliminating DACA.Justice Neil Gorsuch, a Trump appointee, and Justice Samuel Alito, a George W. Bush appointee, seemed concerned that authorizing a review could give judges too much power over executive agency decisions.“Can you help me understand what is the limiting principle?” Gorsuch asked Theodore Olson, one of two lawyers arguing to preserve DACA. “I hear a lot of facts, sympathetic facts, you put out there, and they speak to all of us. But what's the limiting principle?"Chief Justice John Roberts, a George W. Bush appointee, who was closely watched as a potential swing vote, also appeared unsure about whether the court had the power to review Trump's decision to terminate the program.Michael Mongan, the deputy solicitor general of California, who argued for DACA alongside Olson, said the Obama administration's program was consistent with historical deportation-relief policies.Roberts pushed back against that assertion, saying previous administrations' programs were far less sweeping in their use of prosecutorial discretion. Justice Stephen Breyer, a Clinton appointee, also appeared uncertain about whether the court had the power to review Trump's decision.“I'm saying honestly,” Breyer said, “I am struggling to get the right rule.”  At issue for the justices are two overlapping questions: Whether the courts have the right to second-guess Trump's action, and if Trump's DACA repeal was lawful.

US held record number of migrant children in custody in 2019 — The 3-year-old girl traveled for weeks cradled in her father’s arms, as he set out to seek asylum in the United States. Now she won’t even look at him. After being forcibly separated at the border by government officials, sexually abused in U.S. foster care and deported, the once bright and beaming girl arrived back in Honduras withdrawn, anxious and angry, convinced her father abandoned her. He fears their bond is forever broken. “I think about this trauma staying with her too, because the trauma has remained with me and still hasn’t faded,” he said, days after their reunion. This month, new government data shows the little girl is one of an unprecedented 69,550 migrant children held in U.S. government custody over the past year, enough infants, toddlers, kids and teens to overflow the typical NFL stadium. That’s more children detained away from their parents than any other country, according to United Nations researchers. And it’s happening even though the U.S. government has acknowledged that being held in detention can be traumatic for children, putting them at risk of long-term physical and emotional damage. Some of these migrant children who were in government custody this year have already been deported. Some have reunited with family in the U.S., where they’re trying to go to school and piece their lives back together. About 4,000 are still in government custody, some in large, impersonal shelters. And more arrive every week.

Arizona: Second trial begins of pro-immigrant “No More Deaths” volunteer - The second trial of Scott Warren, a volunteer for the humanitarian organization “No More Deaths,” began this week in Arizona. This follows the declaration of a mistrial in the first case, after the jury deadlocked on the verdict five months ago. Rather than dropping the charges at that point, the US government has decided to proceed with a second trial that charges Warren with two counts of “harboring.” The main accusation against Warren is that he provided two undocumented migrants—23-year-old Kristian Perez-Villanueva from El Salvador and 20-year-old Jose Arnaldo Sacaria-Godaythe from Honduras (deported since then)—with food, water, and a place to sleep over three days. In a striking move, less than two weeks before the trial began, federal prosecutors filed a late-stage motion, asking a judge to bar Warren from mentioning Trump’s name or any actions of his administration as part of his defense. Such mentions, they argued, “would be irrelevant and unfairly prejudicial.” This move by the prosecutors is extraordinary for many reasons. For one, as Warren’s attorneys pointed out, such a gag order would violate their client’s First, Fifth and Fourteenth Amendment rights under the US constitution. The government, as defense attorney Amy Knight wrote in her responding motion, had provided “zero explanation whatsoever of the prejudice” that would result from “daring to mention the President, a man who maintains ultimate authority over this prosecution (notably, the same man who appointed both the United States Attorney General and the United States Attorney for the District of Arizona).” Beyond that, however, is the mind-boggling claim that somehow Warren’s trial is not “political” and is disconnected from the war on immigration being waged by the current administration.

 Ocasio-Cortez calls for Stephen Miller to resign over leaked emails - Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) on Tuesday called for White House senior adviser Stephen Miller to resign after leaked emails appeared suggest that he promoted white nationalist literature and offensive immigration stories. “Stephen Miller, Trump’s architect of mass human rights abuses at the border (including child separation & detention camps w/ child fatalities) has been exposed as a bonafide white nationalist,” Ocasio-Cortez tweeted. “He’s still at the White House shaping US immigration policy. Miller must resign. Now,” she added. The tweet comes after a report from the Southern Poverty Law Center(SPLC) revealed that Miller shared white nationalist content with right-wing news website Breitbart and worked to guide the outlet’s coverage. Hatewatch, a branch of the SPLC, reviewed more than 900 emails Miller sent to former Breitbart editor Katie McHugh between 2015 and 2016, finding that more than 80 percent of the emails were about race or immigration. Among other things, Hatewatch said Miller shared content from white nationalist sites directly with McHugh to provide information for her reporting and sought to “create a narrative” regarding the removal of the Confederate flag after a shooting at an African American church in Charleston, S.C. The White House dismissed the report, saying that the SPLC “is an utterly-discredited, long-debunked far-left smear organization” and is “beneath public discussion.”

‘Enormous Victory’: US Judge Rules Suspicionless Searches of Travelers’ Electronic Devices Unconstitutional - In a development that the Electronic Frontier Foundation declared “an enormous victory for privacy,” a federal judge in Boston ruled Tuesday that suspicionless searches of travelers’ phones, laptops, and other electronic devices by government agents at U.S. ports of entry are unconstitutional.“This is a great day for travelers who now can cross the international border without fear that the government will, in the absence of any suspicion, ransack the extraordinarily sensitive information we all carry in our electronic devices,” EFF senior staff attorney Sophia Cope said in a statement.The lawsuit, Alasaad v. McAleenan, was filed by EFF, the national ACLU, and ACLU of Massachusetts on behalf of 10 U.S. citizens and one lawful permanent resident who had their devices searched without warrants. The suit named as defendants the Department of Homeland Security and two agencies it oversees—Customs and Border Protection as well as Immigration and Customs Enforcement.Plaintiffs in the case include Sidd Bikkannavar, an optical engineer for NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory living in California; Jeremy Dupin, a journalist living in Massachusetts; and Diane Maye, a college professor and former U.S. Air Force captain living in Florida.When the suit was filed in September 2017, Maye said that she “felt humiliated and violated” after she was detained for two hours at Miami International Airport upon her return to the United States from a vacation in Europe. “I worried that border officers would read my email messages and texts, and look at my photos,” Maye explained. “This was my life, and a border officer held it in the palm of his hand. I joined this lawsuit because I strongly believe the government shouldn’t have the unfettered power to invade your privacy.” Esha Bhandari, staff attorney with the ACLU’s Speech, Privacy, and Technology Project, said Tuesday that “this ruling significantly advances Fourth Amendment protections for millions of international travelers who enter the United States every year.” The Fourth Amendment of the U.S. Constitution states that “the right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.”

DHS Expects To Have The Biometrics Data Of 259 Million People By 2022 - The US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) expects to have face, fingerprint, and iris scans of at least 259 million people in its biometrics database by 2022. Is there any way to escape the mass surveillance and tracking that George Orwell warned us all about in his iconic book, 1984?  The Orwellian police state is upon us, but don’t expect it to improve at all.  In fact, as George Orwell said: “If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face – forever.”  According to a recent presentation from the DHS’s Office of Procurement Operations which was reviewed by Quartz, the 259 million in the database is about 40 million more than the agency’s 2017 projections. In those estimates, the agency expected to have the data of 220 million unique identities by 2022, according to previous figures cited by the Electronic Frontier Foundation (EFF), a San Francisco-based privacy rights nonprofit. The agency is transitioning from a legacy system called IDENT to a cloud-based system (hosted by Amazon Web Services) known as Homeland Advanced Recognition Technology, or HART. The biometrics collection maintained by DHS is the world’s second-largest, behind only India’s countrywide biometric ID network in size. The traveler data kept by DHS is shared with other US agencies, state and local law enforcement, as well as foreign governments. –Quartz Your data hasn’t been private for a long time and it won’t be ever again as long as governments believe they are allowed to hoard it – all in the name of keeping you safe, of course. The first two stages of the HART system are being developed by United States defense contractor Northrop Grumman, which won the $95 million contract in February 2018. DHS wasn’t immediately available to comment on its plans for its database.

Breaking: Private Equity company acquires .Org registry -- I thought this might happen. And now it has.  Fresh off ICANN’s blunder letting Public Interest Registry set whatever price it wants for .org domain names, Internet Society (ISOC) has sold the .org registry Public Interest Registry (PIR) to private equity company Ethos Capital.Game. Set. Match.This gives Internet Society a huge (as yet unkown) endowment rather than worrying about what the future of the .org domain name holds. PIR generated $101 million in revenue in 2018 and contributed nearly $50 million to Internet Society. It contributed $74 million to ISOC in 2017.ICANN made this deal much more valuable by removing all price controls on .org. While Internet Society might not have wanted to raise prices, a private equity company surely will try to maximize the value of the registry.

Why is American internet access so much more expensive than the rest of the world? When NYU economist Thomas Philippon moved to the United States from France in the 1990s, he noticed everything from laptops to internet access was cheaper in America. But over time, as the access industry consolidated, prices slowly rose and now Americans pay more for data than almost every other country worldwide. In his new book, The Great Reversal: How America Gave Up on Free Markets, Philippon sets out to examine why that happened, and why there’s so little competition in American markets. I don’t often directly recommend books on the show or the site, but I think everyone in tech or interested in tech ought to read this book — it provides a rigorous, but easy-to-grasp look at the economics of consolidation and what it does to markets, prices, and products. There are two things that really jumped out to me during this conversation: first, that concentration can actually be good and create value for the consumer, because healthy competition weeds out poor performers and rewards the winners, but concentration due to lobbying and political influence has the opposite effect. The second is something I’d never really thought about, but makes perfect sense: Philippon pointed out that companies going bankrupt is actually a sign of an efficient, competitive market, because it means companies have to price their products and services very low in order to compete, instead of extracting as much profit as possible. Those low margins are treacherous, and it means that some companies simply won’t survive — but having enough companies to create that pricing pressure and actually go bankrupt is a sign there’s competition in the first place.

Article Analysis:Trump’s Ignored Police “Surge” Threat - Nina Illingworth - In today's article analysis, I'd like to take a look back at a fairly thin "stub" style item in Truthout from October 29th; a piece I meant to write about at the time, but lost in the shuffle during my recent two week involuntary absence. Frankly there really isn't a whole lot to the article; while speaking at the International Association of Chiefs of Police conference in Trump's favorite "Black liberal" city to demonize, Chicago, Downmarket Mussolini alluded to a new sweeping, nationwide crackdown on crime when he said: "In coming weeks, Attorney General Barr will announce a new crackdown on violent crime — which I think is so important — targeting gangs and drug traffickers in high crime cities and dangerous rural areas. Let’s call it the surge.” As the article notes, it is impossible to avoid the militant nature of Trump's rhetoric in light of Bush's use of the same term, "the surge," to describe sending more troops to occupy Iraq in 2007 and especially in light of the Klepto Kaiser's repeated (and often objectively racist) bloviation about urban warzones (read: cities that vote Democrat and have a large number of African Americans or other non-white minorities) and in particular the city of Chicago - which has become the bête noire of the reactionary right's rhetoric about "black on black crime" and the need for "law and order." The article then goes on to reference Trump's $600 million dollar promise to provide even *more* military hardware to American police and the broad coalition of activists opposing Trump (and police violence against African Americans) in Chicago; two issues that are largely a bipartisan problem as racialized injustice and militarized police forces have remained a virtually consistent theme throughout every single presidency since Richard Nixon won a tight election in 1968 behind anti-crime rhetoric designed to stoke the white rage of the "silent majority." These are all obviously important points to consider and it should be extremely alarming to you that this story seems to have gotten largely lost in the Trump impeachment saga shuffle, but I'd like to take a moment to talk a little bit about the context this piece isn't providing: Whether or not you think Donald Trump is smart enough to be an actual fascist, there can certainly be no doubt whatsoever at this point in the man's multi-decade and extremely publicized life, that he is a racist.

 The broken Medicare-for-all financing debate - Elizabeth Warren touched off yet another news cycle on Medicare-for-all last week when she released a detailedfinancing plan for how she would pay for the program. The basic idea is to soak the rich with a variety of special taxes, cut health care costs by squeezing providers, and then make up the difference by capturing slightly less than what employers currently spend on employer-based insurance. Thus she claimed that her plan would not raise taxes on anyone but the rich.There are a lot of worthy elements to Warren's plan. But its badly-designed tax on employers, and the political calculations implied by that decision, reveal how very broken the Medicare-for-all discussion is in this country. One underlying problem here is it is stupid governance to expect every single program to come with its own special pay-for.  . "But how will you pay for it?" is not ever a good-faith question about responsible budgeting. It is only asked about new social programs — virtually nobody ever asks how we are going to pay for a casual $80 billion increase in the military budget, and Republicans easily bat away questions about gigantic tax cuts for the rich with utterly preposterous assertions that they will pay for themselves. The Bush tax cuts did not, and neither did Trump's. The point of this question, whether the journalists who ask it over and over and over realize it or not, is to make it harder to pass social programs that benefit the non-rich by holding them to a double standard that requires a lot of unpopular talk about taxation. Nevertheless, because Medicare-for-all would be such an enormous program, it is not totally out of line to imagine some financing options. Here Warren's team pretty clearly bent her plan for political reasons. The rich-focused taxes are fine, of course, but the employer ones are not. One of the many horrendous aspects of the health care status quo is how each employer has to pay for their own workforce individually, but people's health care needs do not just coincide with their level of pay. That means lower-paid workers have to dedicate more of their compensation to insurance to get decent coverage, or they just go without. Warren would levy a new employer-side tax on workers that is 2 percent smaller than current spending on health care, which would entrench that unjust funding structure. It would effectively be a head tax, as Matt Bruenig argues, a policy charging employers a similar dollar amount for each employee — especially given that Warren would gradually transition these payments into a standard Employer Medicare Contribution calculated as the "average health care cost-per-employee nationally."

 Nurses Lead Protest at Pelosi's Office After She Says "Not a Big Fan of Medicare For All" - National Nurses United planned the rally, march, and die-in months in advance, but the timing couldn't have been better. On November 2nd, the day after Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi who represents the City of San Francisco said, "I am not a big fan of Medicare for All" protesters were on the streets near her San Francisco office demanding that she fight for House Resolution 1384, the Medicare for All bill. Why does Nancy Pelosi say she is not fond of Medicare for All despite strong support for it among the majority of her caucus and an estimated three-quarters of Democratic voters? National Nurses United wrote that the Congresswoman may not be a "big fan" ...but nurses ARE!America is a health-care outlier in the developed world in that it is the only large rich country without universal health care. In fact, single-payer programs in other nations such as Canada, Taiwan, and Australia show that it's possible to provide high-quality care for everyone at about half the cost, per capita, of what the the U.S. is spending now.An estimated 2,000 people from many walks of life joined in the protest that started at the United Nations Plaza. The statewide event featured speakers from the California Nurses Association as well as from National Nurses United and other movements. Teachers, doctors, truck drivers, students, roller skating enthusiasts, and musicians came to make noise about the issue. National Nurses United said in a statement, "We know that Medicare for All is the only true solution to the health care crisis. But we will only win when a mass movement of people stand up and demand it." One individual commented, "Private insurance is at all odds with public interest. Mounting co-insurance and deductibles are breaking budgets...the fact that a chance encounter with cancer or an accident could bankrupt my family is a stress I don’t feel I should bear in my privileged first world country."

HHS Investigates Google-Ascension Secret Medical Records Project for Millions of Patients; Concrete Evidence of HIPAA Violations --Yves Smith -Google and Ascension look to be in boatloads of hot water over their secret patient medical data sharing project that involves “ten of millions” of patients. A day after the Wall Street Journal published its expose, which we discussed yesterday, the normally complacent Department of Health and Human Services roused itself to open an investigation. Congresscritters are upset too.And if it so chooses, HHS can lower the hammer on Ascension and Google. The Guardian reports that Google and Ascension signed an agreement hours after the Journal broke its story.This is prima facie evidence that every bit of patient data that Ascension handed over to Google was a flagrant violation of the privacy provisions of HIPAA. And as we’ll show further down, leaked documents show the data-sharing was well along.Under HIPAA Ascension can share patient data with “business associates” only if

• There is a contract in place
• There is a HIPAA-contemplated purpose for the data provision
• The agreement assures that the business associate will implement practices to assure compliance with HIPAA.

Kinda hard to do any of that with no contract.  Finally, we’ll discuss why electronic health records and the idea of applying AI to medical data has been a pipe dream for decades and that situation is not likely to change any time soon. The better remedy for patients with complex medical histories would be for them to have much stronger rights to their data, including requiring medical providers as a default to provide electronic copies of test results and changes to medication in electronic form to patients promptly after each visit.

Federal inquiry opened into Google health data deal - Google's partnership with Ascension, the nation’s largest nonprofit health system, is the subject of a federal inquiry, a senior official told The Hill Wednesday. The Office for Civil Rights (OCR) in the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) “will seek to learn more information about this mass collection of individuals’ medical records to ensure that HIPAA protections were fully implemented,” Roger Severino, the office’s director, said in a statement, referring to the federal law restricting the release of medical information. The inquiry was was first reported by The Wall Street Journal on Tuesday. The project, codenamed "Nightingale," received little attention until the Journal publicly reported details of it for the first time on Monday. The partnership to collect and analyze health data received swift backlash from lawmakers and privacy advocates concerned about sensitive patient information. One of large concerns shared was whether the deal violated the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act and its rules on handling health care data, which the HHS OCR is now investigating. In a press release posted hours after the Journal report, Google said Ascension was using Google’s cloud services to “securely manage their patient data, under strict privacy and security standards,” including HIPAA. Google pointed The Hill to a Q&A on their site where the tech giant said "we are happy to cooperate with any questions about the project." The Hill has reached out to Ascension for comment on the reported inquiry. Subject matter experts who spoke to The Hill agreed that the partnership is likely not a HIPAA violation because of the broad definition of "business associate" in the 1996 law and an exception for data used for quality improvements. Several lawmakers expressed dismay over the agreement, including Sens. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) who have introduced legislation to expand health data protections in an increasingly online world. “Like many Americans, I’m concerned to hear about details surrounding the so called Project Nightingale and its gathering of personal health data for millions of people," Murkowski told The Hill in a statement.

Gougers ‘R’ Us: How Private Equity Is Gobbling Up Medical Care -Once a month, National Public Radio highlights medical horror stories for its series, Bill of the Month. The series is crowdsourced by patients who have been gouged by the medical industry, and they have swamped NPR with testimonies. Taken together, their accounts are a devastating indictment of the monopolization of the American medical industry.  A recent story highlighted Dr Naveen Khan, a 35-year-old radiologist from Southlake, Texas, who had his arm crushed by an all-terrain vehicle. An air ambulance took him to Fort Worth, Texas. The company promptly called him while he was in the hospital to let him know that the brief flight cost a total of $56,603. His insurer paid $11,972, which is about what the flight actually costs, while the air ambulance company billed Dr. Khan for the remaining $44,631, which he would have to pay out of pocket.  Dr. Khan’s bill is one among thousands of extortionate charges from air ambulances. Nationally, the average helicopter bill has now reached $40,000, according to a report by the Government Accountability Office. That is more than double what it was only nine years ago. It would be tempting to conclude that higher prices are due to a shortage of helicopters or pilots to ferry wounded patients. In fact, the U.S. air-ambulance fleet has doubled in size over the past 15 years. The laws of economics dictate that when demand is flat and supply increases substantially, prices should go down not up. What is preventing the laws of supply and demand from operating here?  The reason is the emergence of a national oligopoly. After a series of mergers, the air ambulance industry is highly concentrated and controlled by private equity groups. Two thirds of medical helicopters operating in 2015 belonged to three for-profit providers, according to the GAO.

Mark Cuban is latest billionaire to bash Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s wealth tax plan - Billionaire investor Mark Cuban suggested in a series of weekend tweets that the proposed wealth tax from 2020 presidential candidate Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., “diverts attention from reality” and is designed to hide her own wealth from the public. Warren’s wealth tax, exemplified by the “two cents” chant that dominates her rallies, calls for a 2% tax on every dollar a household has above $50 million, which would increase to a 6% tax for households with a net worth of more than $1 billion. That money would be used to pay for a variety of her policy proposals, including her “Medicare for All” plan. Cuban, who owns the Dallas Mavericks of the NBA, highlighted Warren’s income and net worth, which at $12 million puts her squarely among the top 1% in America. Warren’s net worth is actually in fourth place in the Democratic field, behind billionaire Tom Steyer, former Maryland Rep. John Delaney and Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet. While Cuban declared Warren the smartest of the 2020 candidates, he also suggested that Warren is “intellectually misleading the public” on the prospects of funding her Medicare for All policy, which Warren says would cost $20.5 trillion over 10 years but some policy experts have pegged at $32 trillion over the same time frame. Warren’s campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Almost every Democratic challenger in the 2020 presidential race is a millionaire, with only Julian Castro, Tulsi Gabbard, and Pete Buttigieg with net worths below $1 million. Excluding Steyer and President Donald Trump’s net worth, Warren’s net worth is just below the average of $12.9 million, according to Forbes.

  Trump advisers exploring tax proposal that would lower “middle class” rate to 15 percent - President Trump’s economic advisers are exploring whether the president should campaign for reelection proposing a 15 percent tax rate for the American middle class, with some seeing the idea as a simple way of selling Republicans’ economic agenda as not merely beneficial to the rich, according to multiple people involved in the White House’s internal deliberations over “tax cut 2.0.”Larry Kudlow, director of the White House National Economic Council, is spearheading the effort behind Trump’s second tax cut package and is widely seen as a leading proponent of the new 15 percent rate. It is unclear if Trump has approved the idea, but the president has pushed aides to develop a simple tax message for 2020 focused on middle class tax relief. The White House has faced sharp criticism for its 2017 tax law, because its tax cuts for individuals and families will expire in a few years but the reductions for businesses are permanent. The new plan is unlikely to pass Congress before the 2020 election but would give the White House a specific plan to present to voters during next year’s presidential campaign.  Reducing the tax rate to 15 percent for middle-class taxpayers would lower taxes by hundreds of billions of dollars, according to budget experts, although precise estimates are impossible given that details remain vague. Doing so would free up much more money for Americans to spend, but it would also dramatically add to the deficit unless the cuts were offset by major spending reductions to federal programs. The GOP tax law of 2017 already added more than $1.5 trillion to the national debt. Kudlow declined to comment on what the administration was considering, but stressed in an interview that the process is still in its preliminary stages and that no final decisions have been made.

Trump Tells Crowd Ivanka Has Created 14 Million New Jobs - At a speech to the Economic Club of New York today, President Trump declared that his daughter, Ivanka, has personally created 14 million new jobs. The president announced this figure — so astonishingly ludicrous it would embarrass a Stalin-era pronouncement — and then repeated it twice more as the crowd applauded politely.The entire U.S. economy has created fewer than 6 million new jobs since Trump took office. So Trump is crediting his daughter with having personally created more than 200 percent of all new jobs in the United States. This is like supply-side economics but for authoritarian nepotism.Exactly how she did this remains a subject of some confusion. The mechanism involves the “Pledge to America’s Workers,” in which the chief executives of various firms promise to create some arbitrary number of training and other opportunities. You can read about this program at its official White House page, but the details are sparse even by the standards of a White House messaging site. There truly does not seem to be any policy here other than Ivanka asking businesspeople to promise to create jobs.  Last October, Ivanka claimed this initiative had created 6.3 million jobs. 

 Donald Trump Jr walks out of Triggered book launch after heckling – from supporters - Donald Trump Jr ventured on to the University of California’s overwhelmingly liberal Los Angeles campus on Sunday, hoping to prove what he had just argued in his book – that a hate-filled American left was hell-bent on silencing him and anyone else who supported the Trump presidency. But the appearance backfired when his own supporters, diehard Make America Great Again conservatives, raised their voices most loudly in protest and ended up drowning him out barely 20 minutes into an event scheduled to last two hours. The audience was angry that Trump Jr and his girlfriend, Kimberly Guilfoyle, would not take questions. The loud shouts of “USA! USA!” that greeted Trump when he first appeared on the stage of a university lecture hall to promote his book Triggered: How The Left Thrives on Hate and Wants to Silence Us quickly morphed into even louder, openly hostile chants of “Q and A! Q and A!” The 450-strong audience had just been told they would not be allowed to ask questions, “due to time constraints”. At first, Trump and Guilfoyle tried to ignore the discontent, which originated with a fringe group of America Firsters who believe the Trump administration has been taken captive by a cabal of internationalists, free-traders, and apologists for mass immigration. When the shouting would not subside, Trump Jr tried – and failed – to argue that taking questions from the floor risked creating soundbites that leftwing social media posters would abuse and distort. Nobody was buying that. In minutes, the entire argument put forward by the president’s son – that he was willing to engage in dialogue but that it was the left that refused to tolerate free speech – crumbled. “I’m willing to listen…” Trump began. “Q and A! Q and A!” the audience yelled back. “We’ll go into the lion’s den and talk …” Trump tried again. “Then open the Q and A!” came the immediate response. Guilfoyle, forced to shout to make herself heard, told students in the crowd: “You’re not making your parents proud by being rude and disruptive.” She and Trump Jr left the stage moments later.

Judge dismisses lawsuit from President Trump aimed at preventing the release of his tax returns -- A federal judge in Washington has dismissed a lawsuit from President Donald Trump against New York officials aimed at preventing the release of his tax returns. The judge ruled that the U.S. District Court in Washington, D.C., does not have jurisdiction to hear the case. Advertisement Trump sued New York's attorney general, tax commissioner and the House and Ways Means Committee in July. The suit sought an injunction to block the application of a New York state law that could allow the Democratic-controlled House to obtain the returns. New York officials had agreed to delay acting on a congressional request for Trump's tax returns until there was a ruling on jurisdiction. But Trump could file a similar lawsuit in another court. Trump’s lawyer Jay Sekulow says he’s reviewing the ruling.

Trump asks Supreme Court to let him keep tax returns secret, setting up landmark fight -- Attorneys for President Donald Trump asked the Supreme Court on Thursday to let him keep his tax returns secret, setting up a case that could determine whether any president has blanket criminal immunity while in office. The case also marks the first time the president’s personal financial dealings have made their way to the nation’s top court. If the justices agree to consider the case, it will pave the way for a landmark dispute over the reach of presidential immunity in the midst of the 2020 presidential campaign and a historic impeachment battle in Congress. The court could also decline to hear the case, effectively requiring the disclosure of Trump’s returns. In the filing, the president’s counsel Jay Sekulow emphasized the importance of hearing the matter. “Every time a President has asked the Court to review an unprecedented use of legal process against the occupant of the office, it has done so,” he wrote. It takes four justices to vote to hear a case. The president is seeking to have the top court overturn a federal appeals court ruling from earlier this month ordering the president’s accounting firm to turn over eight years of the president’s corporate and personal tax returns to the Manhattan District Attorney’s office in response to a subpoena. Calling it the “first time in our nation’s history” that a local prosecutor has launched a criminal investigation of the president, Sekulow urged the court to take the case “to decide the important and unsettled issue this dispute raises.” That question, he wrote, is “whether the District Attorney’s issuance of criminal process demanding the President’s records violates the immunity that he holds under Article II and the Supremacy Clause of the Constitution.” Details of the underlying New York investigation are unclear. Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance Jr. has said the investigation concerns potential violations of state law, though no defendants have been publicly named. Vance’s office is investigating at the very least how the Trump Organization accounted for hush-money payments made to two women, porn star Stormy Daniels and Playboy model Karen McDougal, in the months before the 2016 president election.

Former Trump campaign official testifies Stone gave updates on WikiLeaks hack  -- President Trump's former deputy campaign manager told a jury on Tuesday that Roger Stone was giving the campaign updates on WikiLeaks's plans to release damaging emails stolen from the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's campaign chairman. Richard Gates, who is facing up to ten years in prison under a plea agreement for various fraud charges, testified in Stone's criminal trial on Tuesday, saying that the longtime Trump associate was telling the campaign about WikiLeaks's plans as early as April 2016, months before the DNC had announced it was hacked.It had not been previously known that Stone was updating the campaign about WikiLeaks that early.Stone is facing charges of lying to Congress about his role as an intermediary between WikiLeaks and the Trump campaign. He has pleaded not guilty. According to Gates, Stone's main point of contact with the campaign was Paul Manafort, the former campaign manager who has been sentenced to more than seven years in prison over a variety of fraud charges, though Gates said he spoke with Stone himself as well.

Roger Stone: Trump adviser found guilty on all counts in WikiLeaks hacking case - Roger Stone, a self-described “dirty trickster” and longtime adviser to Donald Trump, was found guilty on Friday of obstructing a congressional investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election. The verdict makes Stone only the latest among a growing list of people once in the president’s inner circle who have been convicted on federal charges. News of Stone’s convictions came as dramatic testimony at the public impeachment hearing unfolded on Capitol Hill. A jury found Stone guilty on all seven counts, including lying to lawmakers about WikiLeaks, tampering with witnesses and obstructing a House intelligence committee investigation into whether the Trump campaign coordinated with Russia to tip the 2016 election. Trump reacted immediately, asking on Twitter if the conviction amounted to “a double standard like never seen before in the history of our Country?” “So they now convict Roger Stone of lying and want to jail him for many years to come. Well, what about Crooked Hillary, Comey, Strzok, Page, McCabe, Brennan, Clapper, Shifty Schiff, Ohr & Nellie, Steele & all of the others, including even Mueller himself? Didn’t they lie?” The verdict, in a trial arising from investigations of Russian interference in the2016 US election, is not only a blow to Stone but renews scrutiny on then candidate Trump’s activities at a time when he faces an impeachment inquiry that could derail his presidency.   The 67-year-old Stone, who also calls himself an agent provocateur, was charged earlier this year, including on accusations of lying to the House intelligence committee during its investigation Trump-Russia hearings as part of special counsel Robert Mueller’s inquiry.  Stone’s colorful trial in federal court was as much about the rough-and-tumble world of politics, as it was about hair-splitting legal arguments, such as whether Stone truly lied about WikiLeaks since that website was never explicitly mentioned in the intelligence committee’s publicly stated parameters of its investigation. Bannon testified in court that he believed Stone was the “access point” toWikiLeaks during the 2016 presidential election, even as he denied that the Trump campaign had no direct contact with the activist website or its founder,Julian Assange.

This Is No Ordinary Impeachment - Andrew Sullivan - is is not just an impeachment. It’s the endgame for Trump’s relentless assault on the institutions, norms, and practices of America’s liberal democracy for the past three years. It’s also a deeper reckoning. It’s about whether the legitimacy of our entire system can last much longer without this man being removed from office. I’m talking about what political scientists call “regime cleavage” — a decline in democratic life so severe the country’s very institutions could lose legitimacy as a result of it. It is described by one political scientist as follows: “a division within the population marked by conflict about the foundations of the governing system itself — in the American case, our constitutional democracy. In societies facing a regime cleavage, a growing number of citizens and officials believe that norms, institutions, and laws may be ignored, subverted, or replaced.” A full-on regime cleavage is, indeed, an extinction-level event for our liberal democratic system. And it is one precipitated by the man who is supposed to be the guardian of that system, the president.Let us count the ways in which Trump has attacked and undermined the core legitimacy of our democracy. He is the only candidate in American history who refused to say that he would abide by the results of the vote. Even after winning the 2016 election, he still claimed that “millions” of voters — undocumented aliens — perpetrated massive electoral fraud in the last election, and voted for his opponent. He has repeatedly and publicly toyed with the idea that he could violate the 22nd Amendment, and get elected for three terms, or more. He consistently described a perfectly defensible inquiry into Russia’s role in the 2016 election as a “witch hunt” and a “hoax,” demonizing Robert Mueller, even as Mueller, in the end, couldn’t find evidence to support the idea of a conspiracy with Russia (perhaps in part because Trump ordered no cooperation, and refused to testify under oath). Trump then withheld release of the full report, while his pliant attorney general distorted its content and wrongly proclaimed that Trump had been entirely exonerated.

The Rule of Law or CIA Coup? - Americans should support the impeachment and removal of President Donald Trump, but not for Ukrainegate. In fact, they should oppose his impeachment on Ukrainegate grounds completely. Trump’s real offense is waging an un-authorized, unconstitutional, illegal, treasonous and for-real genocidal war against the human beings of Yemen. His war crimes in Afghanistan, Somalia, Libya, Syria and Iraq have at least taken place in conflicts supposedly authorized by Congress, making the legal cases against actions there somewhat more complicated.But in Yemen, no law, only presidential orders, have authorized ourmilitary, spies, arms merchants and mercenaries to “lead from behind” in this disastrous war of the so-called “Saudi-led coalition” against the civilian population there.The previous Yemen war, the CIA and air force drone war against al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which began in 2009, the lawyers argued, was legal under the Authorization to Use Military Force against the group that attacked the United States on September 11th 2001. They were, after all,involved in the attack, and had previously bombed the USS Cole in 2000. Of course that drone war only backfired, empowering the al Qaeda enemy by radicalizing the local population. It turns out a 500-pound bomb isn’t a “scalpel” in real life, like they say in Washington. But this is not that war. This is the war that President Barack Obama and then-Saudi Deputy Crown Prince and Defense Minister Mohammed bin Salman started back in March 2015. It’s not a war against AQAP at all. In fact, from the very beginning it’s been a war for AQAP and their allies against their deadly enemies, the Houthi movement of Zaidi Shi’ite tribes from the north of the country who seized the capital city of Sana’a at the end of 2014. The Houthis had been helping the U.S. to fight against AQAP. Strikes against AQAP have continued as well, mostly to bad effect. But even the blowback from that failed policy amounts to nothing compared to the gains al Qaeda has made from fighting on what is now America’s side in the war, mostly due to their association with the mercenary forces of the United Arab Emirites, a major partner in the U.S.-led coalition.

Impeachment: the allegations against US President Donald Trump -- Trump is threatened with removal from office over allegations that he abused his powers and broke the law by pressuring Ukraine to supply damaging information on rival Democrats and possible 2020 presidential election challenger Joe Biden.The evidence covers a series of events from April 2019 when Zelensky was elected, and both sides sought to reboot Washington-Kiev relations. Zelensky sought aid and a meeting with the US leader; Trump sought "investigations."Trump gave the Ukraine leader a congratulatory phone call on April 19. Days later, Trump's personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani said online and in public that the US wanted Ukraine to investigate Burisma, the energy company on whose board Biden's son Hunter served for five years until April 2019.  Giuliani also called for an investigation into a debunked conspiracy theory that Ukraine helped the Democrats against Trump in the 2016 election."Explain to me why Biden shouldn't be investigated if his son got millions from a Russian loving crooked Ukrainian oligarch while He was VP and point man for Ukraine," Giuliani tweeted on May 10.Giuliani's immediate impact was in getting Trump to remove US ambassador Marie Yovanovitch, who had resisted Giuliani's involvement in Ukraine policy. Another result: Trump told Vice President Mike Pence not to attend Zelensky's May 14 inauguration, sending Energy Secretary Rick Perry instead. According to a whistleblower complaint in August, that downgrade was meant to signal to the new government that Trump wanted the investigations.In a July 10 meeting in the office of White House National Security Advisor John Bolton, Gordon Sondland, the US ambassador to the European Union, told Ukrainian officials that a high profile meeting they sought between Zelensky and Trump was contingent on "investigations in the energy sector" and later referenced "Burisma". Sondland told the Ukrainians the alleged quid pro quo was authorized by Trump's right-hand man, acting Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney. "We have an agreement with the chief of staff for a meeting if these investigations in the energy sector start," Sondland told the Ukrainians, according to witnesses. Bolton, who objected to the linkage, immediately cut the meeting short, but Sondland continued to make the point in a subsequent meeting, witnesses said.

Rand Paul: Trump Has "Every Right" To Withhold Ukraine Aid Due To Corruption =President Donald Trump has the right to withhold aid to Ukraine—or any other country—where he believes there is corruption, said Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.).“I think we’ve gotten lost in this whole idea of quid pro quo,” Paul said on NBC’s “Meet The Press” on Sunday.“If you’re not allowed to give aid to people who are corrupt, there’s always contingencies on aid. Presidents since the beginning of time have resisted Congress and there’s been this sort of back-and-forth jockeying over what is sent,” he said. “But also, presidents have withheld aid before for corruption. I think it’s a mistake to say, ‘Oh, he withheld aid until he got what he wanted.'” A House Democrat-led impeachment inquiry against President Trump is focusing on whether or not the White House pressured Ukraine into investigating former Vice President Joe Biden and his son, Hunter Biden, who sat on the board of a Ukrainian energy company. Democrats have alleged there was quid pro quo involved in Trump’s call with Kyiv, which the president has denied.

State Department Freed Ukraine Money Before Trump Says He Did  -- President Donald Trump says he lifted his freeze on aid to Ukraine on Sept. 11, but the State Department had quietly authorized releasing $141 million of the money several days earlier, according to five people familiar with the matter. The State Department decision, which hasn’t been reported previously, stemmed from a legal finding made earlier in the year, and conveyed in a classified memorandum to Secretary of State Michael Pompeo. State Department lawyers found the White House Office of Management and Budget, and thus the president, had no legal standing to block spending of the Ukraine aid. The White House freeze on assistance to Ukraine -- including a separate $250 million package of military aid from the Defense Department -- has become a central issue in House impeachment hearings, where witnesses say Trump ordered the assistance halted to force Ukraine to announce investigations into Joe Biden and other Democrats. The words “investigation, Biden and Clinton” were to be required elements in a public announcement by Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the new Ukrainian president, to get the aid, State Department official George Kent testified in the Democratic-led impeachment probe. Ukraine ultimately didn’t make the announcement, and Trump says there was never a quid pro quo. The freeze on funds Ukraine sought for its continuing war against Russia-backed separatists was opposed by many in the administration. Alexander Vindman, director of European affairs on the National Security Council, has testified that he understood Pompeo, then-National Security Advisor John Bolton and Defense Secretary Mark Esper all recommended releasing the funds in an Aug. 15 meeting with Trump. The OMB has argued all along that the congressional notification by the State Department was only one step and it still had the power to hold the money after it was sent because of its authority to apportion -- or distribute -- the funds.

After boost from Perry, backers got huge gas deal in Ukraine (AP) — Two political supporters of U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry secured a potentially lucrative oil and gas exploration deal from the Ukrainian government soon after Perry proposed one of the men as an adviser to the country’s new president. Perry’s efforts to influence Ukraine’s energy policy came earlier this year, just as President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s new government was seeking military aid from the United States to defend against Russian aggression and allies of President Donald Trump were ramping up efforts to get the Ukrainians to investigate his Democratic rival Joe Biden. Ukraine awarded the contract to Perry’s supporters little more than a month after the U.S. energy secretary attended Zelenskiy’s May inauguration. In a meeting during that trip, Perry handed the new president a list of people he recommended as energy advisers. One of the four names was his longtime political backer Michael Bleyzer. A week later, Bleyzer and his partner Alex Cranberg submitted a bid to drill for oil and gas at a sprawling government-controlled site called Varvynska. They offered millions of dollars less to the Ukrainian government than their only competitor for the drilling rights, according to internal Ukrainian government documents obtained by The Associated Press. But their newly created joint venture, Ukrainian Energy, was awarded the 50-year contract because a government-appointed commission determined they had greater technical expertise and stronger financial backing, the documents show. Perry likely had outsized influence in Ukraine. Testimony in the impeachment inquiry into Trump shows the energy secretary was one of three key U.S. officials who were negotiating a meeting between Trump and the Ukrainian leader. White House and State Department officials have testified that the president would only meet with Zelenskiy if he committed to launching an investigation into Joe Biden and his son Hunter. In the impeachment inquiry against Trump, the officials have also said that U.S. military aid to Ukraine was being withheld until Zelenskiy publicly announced such an investigation. The sequence of events suggests the Trump administration’s political maneuvering in Ukraine was entwined with the big business of the energy trade.

Trump has considered firing official who reported whistleblower complaint to Congress: report -- President Trump has considered firing the official who reported the whistleblower complaint to Congress, The New York Times reported Tuesday. The president has weighed getting rid of the intelligence community's inspector general, Michael Atkinson, because he provided the whistleblower complaint to Congress that sparked the impeachment inquiry, four people familiar with the discussions told the Times. Trump was reportedly upset when the whistleblower report was published in September and has considered firing the inspector general more recently because he does not understand why Atkinson shared the complaint, one source told the Times. The whistleblower report detailed how Trump asked the Ukrainian president to investigate unfounded corruption allegations into former Vice President Joe Biden and his son days after withholding military aid from the country. Trump has blasted the inspector general on Twitter and indicated that he thinks Atkinson should have to testify in the impeachment inquiry alongside the whistleblower. It is unknown how far the consideration of firing Atkinson went, with two sources telling the Times they thought Trump was just venting and not talking about serious consequences for the inspector general. However, the president condemned former FBI Director James Comey and former Attorney General Jeff Sessions before he removed them for disloyalty. Inspector generals are supposed to remain independent from partisan beliefs and provide objective accountability. People close to Trump told the Times that they thought removing Atkinson could damage the president going into the impeachment proceedings; his firing of Comey led to the appointment of former special counsel Robert Mueller to investigate his campaign's alleged ties to Russia.

Visitor Logs Reveal 'Whistleblower' And DNC Contractor Visited Obama White House Multiple Times -- A controversial whistleblower who allegedly reported second-hand on President Donald Trump’s private conversation with the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the Obama White House on numerous occasions, according to Obama era visitor logs obtained by Judicial Watch. Last week Real Clear Investigation’s first reported the whistleblower’s name. It is allegedly CIA officer Eric Ciaramella. His name, however, has been floating around Washington D.C. since the leak of Trump’s phone call. It was considered an ‘open secret’ until reporter Paul Sperry published his article. Ciaramella has never openly stated that he is the whistleblower and most news outlets are not reporting his name publicly.He was detailed to the National Security Counsel during the Obama Administration in 2015 and was allegedly sent back to the CIA in 2017, after a number of people within the Trump White House suspected him of leaking information to the press, according to several sources that spoke with SaraACarter.com.Further, the detailed visitor logs reveal that a Ukrainian expert Alexandra Chalupa, a contractor that was hired by the Democratic National Committee during the 2016 election, visited the White House 27 times.Chalupa allegedly coordinated with the Ukrainians to investigate then candidate Trump and his former campaign manager Paul Manafort. Manafort was forced out of his short tenure as campaign manager for Trump when stories circulated regarding business dealings with Ukrainian officials. Manafort was later investigated and convicted by a jury on much lesser charges then originally set forth by Robert Mueller’s Special Counsel investigation. He was given 47 months in prison for basically failing to pay appropriate taxes and committing bank fraud.Both Ciaramella and Chalupa are of interest to Republican’s investigating the what some conservatives have described as the second Trump ‘witch-hunt.’ And many have called for the whistleblower to testify to Congress.

Is Whistleblower Aid a Charity Fraud? - There has been a lot of smoke and diversion put up with regards to alleged whistleblower Eric Ciaramella thanks to the work of his lawyer, Mark Zaid, and the charitable foundation supporting this effort--Whistleblower Aid. I think it is time to set the record straight and raise some serious questions about both Ciaramella and the charity backing him. Eric Ciaramella, according to various press reports, is a CIA intelligence analyst who also has close ties to Democrats working against Donald Trump. Ciaramella worked at the National Security Council on the Ukraine issue and had repeated contacts with individuals, such as DNC operative Alexandra Chalupa, who were involved in the plot to smear Donald Trump as an agent of Russia. It also is reported that Ciaramella was suspected of being the source for a false story claiming that former FBI Director Comey was fired because Vladimir Putin told Trump to do it. And, most importantly, Ciaramella was back at CIA Headquarters when Donald Trump spoke with Ukraine's President Zelensky. He did not listen in on the call nor did he have access to the transcript. Here's the bottomline--Ciaramella, lacking first hand information, does not qualify as a whistleblower. As a former intelligence analyst, like Ciaramella, I know that you must have first hand information. What qualifies as first hand? You listened in on the conversation. You read the transcript. Or, and no one has raised this, you have a piece of human or signals intelligence that tells a different story from the publicized transcript. ZERO evidence for any of this. Ciaramella's only qualification is that he does not like Trump and his policies towards Ukraine. Then there is the indisputable fact that the Ukrainian President is on the record, in public, denying any pressure and denying any quid pro quo. All of these facts justify bringing Mr. Ciaramella before Congress, putting him under oath and getting him to explain the foundation for his claims. But Democrats and anti-Trumpers are saying "no" and insisting that the identity of the whistleblower must be protected at all costs. That is bunk. There is only one legitimate reason to keep the whistleblower's identity secret--i.e., if he or she was undercover, either official or non-official. Ciaramella was not undercover. He is no different from any other civil servant who works in any other part of the Federal bureaucracy. He just happens to hold a Top Secret clearance.

 Nikki Haley says she was told to undermine Trump -- Nikki Haley, former US ambassador to the UN, has said two top White House aides encouraged her to undermine President Donald Trump. In a new book, Ms Haley says then-Chief of Staff John Kelly and then-Secretary of State Rex Tillerson told her to resist some of Mr Trump's demands. They reportedly told her they were "trying to save the country". There was no immediate comment from Mr Tillerson. Mr Kelly said he had wanted to the president to be fully informed. "If by 'resistance' and 'stalling' she means putting a staff process in place... to ensure [Mr Trump] knew all the pros and cons of what policy decision he might be contemplating so he could make an informed decision, then guilty as charged," Mr Kelly told US broadcaster CBS. Ms Haley says Mr Kelly and Mr Tillerson told her they "weren't being subordinate, they were trying to save the country". "It was their decisions, not the president's, that were in the best interests of America, they said," she wrote in her book With All Due Respect, which was seen by the Washington Post before its release on Tuesday. Mr Tillerson, she added, told her people would die if the president were not restrained. Ms Haley, 47, said she had refused the request from Mr Kelly and Mr Tillerson, and called it "dangerous" and "offensive". .

Giuliani pens op-ed slamming 'unprecedented' impeachment inquiry - Rudy Giuliani, President Trump’s personal attorney, penned an op-ed published Tuesday slamming the House’s “unprecedented” impeachment investigation. The op-ed, which comes a day before the House holds its first public hearings in the inquiry, claims Trump’s interactions with Ukraine were “innocent” and that House Democrats are unfairly targeting his client. “The manner in which [Rep. Adam Schiff] and Speaker Nancy Pelosi are conducting this impeachment investigation is unprecedented, constitutionally questionable, and an affront to American fair play,” Giuliani wrote of the two California Democrats in The Wall Street Journal. “In an ideal America, politicians would be held to the same standard regardless of party, and this inquiry would be over. But the left’s inability to accept the results of the 2016 election and fear of Mr. Trump’s policy agenda have driven the Democrats into a frenzy,” he added. At the heart of the House’s impeachment investigation is a July phone call between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in which Trump repeatedly lobbied his counterpart to investigate former Vice President Joe Biden, a chief political rival, on ungrounded corruption allegations. While the call has been the focus of bipartisan scrutiny on Capitol Hill, Giuliani maintained the president did nothing wrong. “The conversation my client, President Donald J. Trump, had with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on July 25 was innocent. During a congratulatory call, the newly elected Mr. Zelensky brought up the need to ‘drain the swamp’ in his country. Rooting out corruption was one of Mr. Zelensky’s campaign pledges, and Mr. Trump asked him to investigate allegations of corruption at the highest levels of both governments. It was a matter of serious mutual concern,” he wrote. “Moreover, Mr. Trump requested that Ukraine root out corruption; he didn’t demand it. His words were cordial, agreeable and free of any element of threat or coercion. Mr. Trump offered nothing in return to Ukraine for cleaning up corruption,” Giuliani continued. The op-ed comes a day before the House begins hearing public testimony in its inquiry into Trump. William Taylor, the top U.S. diplomat to Ukraine, and George Kent, a top State Department official, are set to testify Wednesday, while former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch is expected to testify Friday.

Vindman, the Expert - Ilargi: I was reading a piece by Byron York that has the first good read-out I’ve seen of the October 29 deposition by Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, self-labeled no. 1 Ukraine expert at the National Security Counsel, and I want to share that in a summarized form, with my comments. There’ll be some longer quotes though. And I know there are people who may not like York, but just skip his opinions and focus on the facts then. Overall, Vindman comes across to me as a bureaucrat among bureaucrats, who also appears to be on the edge what we think of when we mention the Deep State. And who seems to think his views and opinions trump Trump’s own. “.. his greatest worry was that if the Trump-Zelensky conversation were made public, then Ukraine might lose the bipartisan support it currently has in Congress.” A US President is elected to determine foreign policy, but Vindman doesn’t like things that way. He wants the policy to be set by people like him. It brings to mind Nikki Haley saying that Tillerson and Kelly wanted her to disobey the President, because they felt they knew better. That slide is mighty slippery. And unconstitutional too.  And the suspicion that Vindman’s report of the call may be what set off “whistleblowing” CIA agent Eric Ciaramella is more alive after the testimony than before. But, conveniently, his name may not be spoken. For pete’s sake, Vindman Even Testified He Advised Ukrainians to Ignore Trump.  Here’s Byron York: Democrats Have A Colonel Vindman Problem: Appearing at his Oct. 29 deposition in full dress uniform, Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, now a White House National Security Council Ukraine expert, was the first witness who had actually listened to the phone call between President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that is at the heart of the Democratic impeachment campaign. Even though lawmakers were forbidden to discuss his testimony in public, Vindman’s leaked opening statement that “I did not think it was proper [for Trump] to demand that a foreign government investigate a U.S. citizen” exploded on news reports. Here are four problems with the Vindman testimony:

• 1) Beyond his opinions, he had few new facts to offer. “You don’t think there was any malicious intent to specifically not add those edits?” asked Republican counsel Steve Castor. “I don’t think so.” “So otherwise, this record is complete and I think you used the term ‘very accurate’?” “Yes,” said Vindman. Once Vindman had vouched for the rough transcript, his testimony mostly concerned his own interpretation of Trump’s words. And that interpretation, as Vindman discovered during questioning, was itself open to interpretation.
• 2) Vindman withheld important information from investigators.  Did Vindman take his concerns to anyone else? Did he discuss the Trump-Zelensky call with anyone else? It was a reasonable question, and an important one. Republicans asked it time and time again. Vindman refused to answer, with his lawyer, Michael Volkov, sometimes belligerently joining in. Through it all, House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff stood firm in favor of keeping his committee in the dark.
• 3) There were notable gaps in Vindman’s knowledge. Vindman portrayed himself as the man to see on the National Security Council when it came to issues involving Ukraine. “I’m the most knowledgeable. I’m the authority for Ukraine for the National Security Council and the White House.” Yet at times there were striking gaps in Vindman’s knowledge of the subject matter. He seemed, for instance, distinctly incurious about the corruption issues in Ukraine that touched on Joe and Hunter Biden.
• 4) Vindman was a creature of a bureaucracy that has often opposed President Trump. One of his favorite words is “interagency,” by which he means the National Security Council’s role in coordinating policy among the State Department, Defense Department, the Intelligence Community, the Treasury Department, and the White House.  He believes the interagency has set a clear U.S. policy toward Ukraine.  The “interagency” doesn’t set policy, the President does -and with him perhaps the House and Senate. But not an alphabet soup of agencies.

I’ve said it before, and I fear I may have to say it again, this is a show trial. And no, it’s not even a trial, that happens next in the Senate. Jonathan Turley said the other day that he thinks Nancy Pelosi wants a quick -before Christmas- resolution to the House part, but I’m not convinced. The reason is that the Democrats lose the director’s chair once this moves to the Senate. They can’t silence the Republicans there the same way Adam Schiff does it in the House.  Because this thing in its present shape is unwinnable. To impeach Trump, the Dems would need Republican votes. But how could they possibly get those when they lock out the Republicans of the entire process?

Trump aides fear John Bolton’s secret notes - John Bolton is the impeachment inquiry's biggest wildcard. People around the president say they are worried about what notes Trump's former national security adviser has kept and when he might divulge them.  These sources, including both current and former senior administration officials, tell me that the former national security adviser was the most prolific note-taker at the top level of the White House and probably has more details than any impeachment inquiry witness, so far, about President Trump's machinations on Ukraine. Bolton was a voracious note-taker, in every meeting," said a source who attended numerous meetings with him.  While others sat and listened in meetings with Trump, Bolton distinguished himself by filling legal pads with contemporaneous notes on what was said in the room. Bolton's lawyer, Chuck Cooper, caught the attention of impeachment investigators and administration officials on Friday with a provocative line he dangled in a letter to the House's general counsel: that Bolton "was personally involved" in "many relevant meetings and conversations that have not yet been discussed" in the impeachment testimonies.  This tease from Bolton's lawyer provoked this warning from a senior administration official:

• "Typically, anything that could contain classified information is turned over to the White House for review when an employee departs. … One would hope Bolton has considered that before advertising that he has additional information."
• "It could be that these are notes that the White House has already viewed," the official added. "But if not, it would mean Bolton deliberately concealed them during his offboarding, which could lead to legal repercussions depending on the contents."

To be clear, there is no evidence that Bolton has held onto classified information. But the unease inside the administration has been churning ever since staff learned that Bolton had signed a book deal to tell about his time working for Trump. Bolton's book deal is worth $2 million, per AP, which suggests he's willing to dish.   Unlike most of the impeachment witnesses so far, Bolton talked one-on-one with the president on numerous occasions. He has a degree of insight that the impeachment witnesses we've seen so far simply cannot offer. Bolton and his former deputy Charlie Kupperman — both represented by Cooper — have asked a court to determine whether they should obey the White House's order not to testify or the House Democrats' request for their testimony.  All of this may come to nothing because House Democrats are rushing to vote on impeachment before the end of the year. Democrats have said they don't want to get sucked into a lengthy legal battle, and so they have not subpoenaed Bolton to testify. The courts, however, have shown they're willing to move faster than normal if Democrats were willing to delay their timeline and chase Bolton.  If House Democrats maintain their current stance — and there's every sign they will — it's a relief for administration officials who have been nervously contemplating what Bolton knows and what he's recorded in that mountain of legal pads.  Even if Bolton doesn't testify, he could still put out information before the election that’s deeply damaging to Trump.  Unlike current administration officials who may be motivated not to testify by their loyalty to President Trump, it seems more likely, based on Bolton's background, that he genuinely wanted the courts to resolve whether Congress or the White House has the power to compel or stop him from testifying.

House Democrats, former Bolton aide ask judge to block Mulvaney from joining lawsuit against impeachment subpoena - House Democrats and former deputy national security adviser Charles Kupperman separately asked a federal judge on Monday to block President Trump's acting chief of staff from intervening in a lawsuit over subpoenas related to the House's impeachment inquiry. Trump's top aide, Mick Mulvaney, had filed a motion in D.C. District Court on Friday seeking to join Kupperman's lawsuit over a subpoena in order to fight the House Intelligence Committee's efforts to compel his own testimony. But Democrats argued that the original lawsuit is moot since they withdrew the subpoena directing Kupperman to testify. Kupperman also filed a brief on Monday opposing Mulvaney's motion arguing that he should be directed to file a separate lawsuit. The Democrats wrote in their filing that even if the case was not moot at this point, Mulvaney and Kupperman are in very different circumstances. "While Kupperman seeks a declaration from this Court as to whether he should comply with his subpoena or follow the President’s directive, Mulvaney seeks only a declaration that the House Defendants cannot compel him to comply with his subpoena or take any action against him if he does not," they wrote. "Unlike Kupperman, Mulvaney does not state that he would comply with his subpoena if this Court rejects the claimed absolute immunity." Despite filing a lawsuit, Kupperman has stayed neutral in the fight between the president and the House. He argued in his complaint that he was seeking a court ruling to decide which of the two "irreconcilable commands" he was facing — the congressional subpoena and the White House's directive not to cooperate — have legal authority. Mulvaney, meanwhile, is asking the court to block the subpoena he received last week. If Mulvaney's motion prevails, it would throw him into a lawsuit in which his own boss is a named defendant. Kupperman also argued in his filing that Mulvaney may have jeopardized his ability to claim immunity from the House's efforts to subpoena him when he essentially said in a press conference last month that the White House was seeking an investigation from Ukraine into former Vice President Joe Biden in exchange for congressionally approved security funding.

Trump threatening to fire Mulvaney: report - Trump threatening to fire Mulvaney: report © UPI Photo President Trump has reportedly been threatening to fire acting White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney for weeks over recent missteps amid the House’s impeachment investigation. Three people familiar with the discussions told The Washington Post that the president has griped about Mulvaney’s appearance at an Oct. 17 press conference in which he admitted military aid to Ukraine was withheld to pressure Kyiv to launch investigations into 2016 election meddling and former Vice President Joe Biden, a chief political rival of Trump’s. He later backtracked, clarifying that there was “absolutely no quid pro quo.” Senior aides have reportedly advised that firing Mulvaney at such a pivotal moment during the House’s impeachment inquiry could be risky, particularly given Mulvaney’s role in the decision to temporarily freeze the aid and the chaos that would ensue in trying to find a replacement for him. “I don’t think you’ll see him going anywhere until after December,” one Trump adviser told The Post. “But the president was very unhappy with that press conference. That was a very bad day for the president.” Mulvaney was in direct communication with Trump about the president’s desire to hold $400 million in military aid to Ukraine as the White House was pressuring Kyiv to launch investigations that would be politically beneficial to the president. Advisers have cited the dismissal of former National Security Adviser John Bolton, who was dismissed in September and is now a top target for Democrats for testimony. “Trump is back asking everyone what they think about Mulvaney,” said one senior U.S. official. “He clearly is upset with him. He’s being advised that the last thing he needs is another major personnel move.” Mulvaney’s standing in the White House has been under renewed scrutiny when he reversed plans to file a lawsuit asking a federal court to rule on if he should comply with a House subpoena for his testimony, saying instead he would follow the White House’s order to not cooperate with the impeachment probe.

House Republicans add Hunter Biden, whistleblower to impeachment hearing witness wish list - House Republicans plan to call former Vice President Joe Biden's son Hunter Biden and the Ukraine whistleblower, among other witnesses, to testify as the Democrats' impeachment inquiry into President Trump shifts to a new, public phase. "Americans see through this sham impeachment process, despite the Democrats' efforts to retroactively legitimize it last week," Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Calif.), the House Intelligence Committee's top Republican, wrote in a letter to the panel's Democratic chairman, Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), on Saturday. In requesting testimony from the whistleblower whose complaint sparked the impeachment inquiry, Nunes said that “Trump should be afforded an opportunity to confront his accusers,” especially with what he claimed were “discrepancies” between the whistleblower's complaint and witnesses’ closed-door testimony. “It is imperative that the American people hear definitively how the whistleblower developed his or her information, and who else the whistleblower may have fed the information he or she gathered and how that treatment of classified information may have led to the false narrative being perpetrated by the Democrats during this process,” Nunes wrote. In addition to the anonymous whistleblower, whose complaint about Trump’s July 25 call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky president is at the center of the impeachment inquiry, Republicans also plan to call Hunter Biden’s former business partner Devon Archer. It is unclear how many of the GOP’s requested witnesses will be approved by the majority House Democrats and Schiff, though several lawmakers have already expressed concerns about the possibility of outing the anonymous whistleblower. Hunter Biden worked on the board of a natural gas company owned by a Ukrainian oligarch while his father served as vice president. Joe Biden pushed in 2016 for the dismissal of a Ukrainian prosecutor who had been accused of overlooking corruption in his own office, threatening to withhold money if the prosecutor was not fired. There’s no evidence that Joe Biden was acting with his son’s interests in mind, and the former vice president has denied the allegations. But Trump and his allies, including his personal attorney Rudy Giuliani, have pushed for an investigation into the Bidens.

Democrats vow to insulate impeachment probe from 'sham investigations' - (Reuters) - The impeachment inquiry into U.S. President Donald Trump will not be allowed to become a venue for “sham investigations” into Democratic presidential hopeful Joe Biden and his son, the head of a congressional committee leading the probe said on Tuesday. Representative Adam Schiff, the Democratic head of the House of Representatives Intelligence Committee, made the vow as the White House and its Republican allies in Congress set up lines of defense ahead of public hearings that begin on Wednesday. Schiff, who is spearheading the investigation into whether Trump pressured Ukraine to target one of the Republican president’s domestic political rivals, also said he would not allow the hearings to be derailed by a debunked conspiracy theory that Ukraine - not Russia - meddled in the 2016 U.S. election. Some Republicans have defended Trump’s dealings with Ukraine by saying he was motivated by a desire to root out corruption in the Eastern European nation and get to the bottom of the election meddling four years ago. The inquiry will enter a critical phase on Wednesday when lawmakers hold their first public, televised hearings and begin to question witnesses. Schiff’s comments in a note to committee members suggested he would not allow Republicans to call Biden’s son Hunter and the whistleblower who triggered the impeachment probe after a Trump phone call with Ukraine’s leader as witnesses. As leader of the Democratic majority on the intelligence panel, Schiff controls which witnesses testify.

Democrats announce public impeachment hearings with seven witnesses next week - House Democrats on Tuesday announced a spate of additional hearings for next week as part of their public phase of the impeachment inquiry, as they seek to make the case that President Trump pressured a foreign government for his political benefit. House Intelligence Chairman Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) said the committee expected to hear on Tuesday from key witnesses like Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, a top Ukraine expert on the National Security Council (NSC), and Jennifer Williams, an aide to Vice President Mike Pence. Schiff said on Wednesday they plan to hear from U.S. Ambassador to the E.U. Gordon Sondland, who revised his testimony to say he believed the president "likely" conditioned nearly $400 million in aid to opening such probes. Later that afternoon, they will hear from top Defense official Laura Cooper, who testified about decisions to withhold the aid, and David Hale, the Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs. Democrats will wrap up the second week of public hearings with testimony from Fiona Hill, former NSC senior director for Europe and Russia, who testified about her concern that Trump's lawyer Rudy Giuliani and others sought to remove a top diplomat to Ukraine. The announcement comes one day before Democrats are expected to have their first public hearing, in which they hope two career State Department officials will deliver convincing testimony about Trump pressing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to open investigations into interference in the 2016 election and former Vice President Joe Biden and his son.

Activist Shrinks Want To Tell Impeachment Panel Trump Is Crazy - A group of medical professionals who claim that President Trump is mentally unfit for office want to testify during House Democrats' impeachment probe, according to the Washington Examiner, the latest development in an ongoing effort to explore removing Trump via the 25th amendment. Led by Dr. Brandy Lee - a Yale forensic psychologist (who remains unlicensed in Connecticut), the group includes three other psychologists, a clinical neuropsychologist, a neurologist and an internist - who will announce their availability next week to members of Congress and the media. Notably, the group didn't avail themselves during the closed-door impeachment hearings - so this is clearly more about influencing public opinion than genuine concern. Lee and those prepared to testify say there is enough information from the president's public appearances, tweets, interviews, and also from special counsel Robert Mueller's 448-page report, to make the determination that, as Lee put it, "the president lacks mental capacity to fulfill the duties of his office." "There is very little that a personal examination will add," Lee said. -Washington Examiner "We think that hearing about mental health aspects in the context of the impeachment hearings is critical, partly because, for the past 2.5 years we have been very deeply concerned about mental instability of the president, and pretty much all that we have said has born out to be true," said Lee - who previously diagnosed Trump with a "mental impairment" for "going back to conspiracy theories, denying things he has admitted before," and "his being drawn to violent videos."

Trump impeachment hearings focus on Ukraine pressure campaign in first day - (Reuters) - The top U.S. diplomat in Ukraine, testifying on Wednesday in the first televised hearing of the impeachment inquiry against President Donald Trump, linked the president more directly to a pressure campaign on Ukraine to conduct investigations that would benefit him politically. William Taylor was one of two career diplomats who testified before the U.S. House of Representatives Intelligence Committee as a crucial new phase began in the impeachment inquiry that threatens Trump’s presidency even as he seeks re-election in 2020. Both Taylor and George Kent testified about their concerns about pressure by Trump and allies to get Ukraine to investigate Democratic political rival Joe Biden in a dramatic hearing that pitted Democratic and Republican lawmakers against each other. While the hearing turned contentious at times - including sniping between lawmakers - the low-key testimony given by the two witnesses may have fallen short of giving the Democrats the ammunition they need to advance their argument that Trump has committed misdeeds worthy of ousting him from office. In a disclosure that drew attention, Taylor, acting ambassador to Ukraine, pointed to the Republican president’s keen interest in getting Ukraine to investigate Biden, a former vice president, and reiterated his understanding that $391 million in U.S. security aid was withheld from Kiev unless it cooperated. RELATED COVERAGE U.S. official who overheard Trump-Sondland phone call will testify Trump plans to release on Thursday transcript of April Ukraine call See more stories Taylor said a member of his staff overheard a July 26 phone call between Trump and Gordon Sondland, a former political donor appointed as a senior diplomat, in which Trump asked about those investigations and Sondland told him the Ukrainians were ready to proceed. Following the call - which occurred a day after Trump had asked Ukraine’s president during a phone call to conduct the investigations - the staff member asked Sondland, the U.S. ambassador to the European Union, what Trump thought about Ukraine, Taylor said. “Ambassador Sondland responded that President Trump cares more about the investigations of Biden, which Giuliani was pressing for,” Taylor testified, referring to Trump’s personal lawyer, Rudy Giuliani. Asked by Adam Schiff, the committee’s Democratic chairman, if that meant Trump cared more about the investigations than about Ukraine, Taylor said: “Yes, sir.” At a White House news conference with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan after the hearing ended, Trump said he knew “nothing” about the call with Sondland that Taylor said his aide overheard.

Plenty of substance but little drama on first day of impeachment hearings  -In the reserved manner of veteran diplomats with Harvard degrees, Bill Taylor and George Kent opened the public phase of the House impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump on Wednesday by bearing witness to a scheme they described as not only wildly unorthodox but also in direct contravention of U.S. interests."It is clearly in our national interest to deter further Russian aggression," Taylor, the acting U.S. ambassador to Ukraine and a decorated Vietnam War veteran, said in explaining why Trump's decision to withhold congressionally appropriated aid to the most immediate target of Russian expansionism didn't align with U.S. policy.But at a time when Democrats are simultaneously eager to influence public opinion in favor of ousting the president and quietly apprehensive that their hearings could stall or backfire, the first round felt more like the dress rehearsal for a serious one-act play than the opening night of a hit Broadway musical.During five and a half hours of testimony, under questioning from House Intelligence Committee members from both parties and staff lawyers from each side of the aisle, the two men delivered a wide-ranging discourse on America's interests in Eastern Europe, diplomatic protocol and democratic norms — and how they believe Trump subverted all of them in service of political goals. And yet Taylor and Kent failed — or perhaps succeeded, given their nonpartisan roles in government and the atypically serious postures struck by lawmakers of both parties — by dropping no bombshells and largely repeating the testimony they gave congressional investigators at depositions previously held behind closed doors. "If you have to do something that makes Republicans in this country believe the president has committed some serious infraction, then today was 'ball one,'" said Matt Schlapp, a Trump ally who speaks frequently to White House officials and GOP lawmakers. "It wasn’t a wild pitch, but it wasn’t close to the strike zone."

What to Make of the First Day of Impeachment Hearings LawFare - After weeks of closed-door hearings, a parade of witnesses and much presidential grousing, the impeachment process has finally made its public debut. President Trump said he didn’t watch the hearing. His supporters complained that the spectacle was boring. But despite the bad reviews from Republicans, the hearing—featuring State Department officials Amb. William Taylor, now serving as charge d’affaires in Ukraine, and Deputy Assistant Secretary of State George Kent—unveiled at least one piece of significant new information about the president’s conduct and set the stage for impeachment hearings to come. Kent, whose deposition testimony described how conspiracy theories circulated by Rudy Giuliani led to Amb. Marie Yovanovitch’s ouster from her post in Ukraine, was the unexpected star of the show. Wearing a three-piece suit and a yellow-and-blue bow tie—the colors of the Ukrainian flag—he delivered an opening statement that all but openly criticized actions by Trump and those who sought to influence Ukraine policy on the president’s behalf, stating, “It was unexpected, and most unfortunate, to watch some Americans—including those who allied themselves with corrupt Ukrainians in pursuit of private agendas—launch attacks on dedicated public servants advancing U.S. interests in Ukraine.” He also came to the defense of “some of [his] fellow public servants who have come under personal attack” from the president’s supporters—specifically Yovanovitch, Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman and Fiona Hill, all immigrants—whom he honored as having chosen to serve their adopted country. For a career diplomat and career public servant, Kent made comments that were notably forward-leaning. Given public servants’ inherent caution and the professional need to avoid political sensitivities, most would have been far more circumspect in their comments and less pointed in their anticipated rebuttals. Kent was neither—and he continued to capably, and at times quite sharply, field questions throughout the day. The impression was a committed public servant who had been pushed to the limits of what he could stand and was willing to strain against the conventional limits of his position in order to push back. By contrast, Taylor played his cards closer to his chest and largely recycled much of the opening statement from his closed-door testimony, which was the first document to provide a detailed account of machinations before and after Trump’s July 25 phone call with Zelensky. While Kent’s testimony appeared intent on contextualizing Trump’s conduct—clarifying what was at stake in Ukraine and how the president’s behavior put it at risk—Taylor focused intently on the factual timeline of the Trump administration’s handling of Ukraine policy, going over it again in close detail. Together, the two witnesses set the stage well for the remainder of the day’s questioning and the impeachment process more broadly. The facts are bad for the president, and there is value in getting that material on video for the public to learn in real time. But they don’t represent a bombshell—because that bombshell already dropped when the depositions were first reported on.

What Impeachment Really Reveals About Ukraine - There was something more than a little troubling about the initial day of the first public impeachment hearing since the 1990s. House Intelligence Committee Chair Adam Schiff (D-CA) is filling the same role he performed under the previous Mueller investigation: convict at all costs. Already the third word out of the chairman’s mouth during his opening statement was none other than—what else?—Russia.” With Schiff as impresario, a sickly miasma of unreality thus quickly enveloped the hearing. It came to resemble a morality play more than an impartial examination of President Donald Trump and Ukraine. On the one side was the virtuous Ukraine, an ally of America that had been wantonly abandoned by President Trump. On other side was a malignant Russia out to extirpate freedom not only in Europe, but potentially the rest of the free world. Or so at least both Schiff’s and William B. Taylor’s opening statements would appear to suggest. Schiff declared that in invading Crimea, Russia was trying to “fulfill Vladimir Putin’s desire to rebuild a Russian empire.” Was it? Or was it reacting to the sudden toppling of the Yanukovych regime in Kiev in February 2014 and trying to show that it would not take it lying down? Then there was Taylor. According to Taylor, “the security assistance we provide is crucial to Ukraine’s defense and to the protection of the soldiers I met last week. It demonstrates to Ukrainians—and Russians—that we are Ukraine’s reliable strategic partner. It is clearly in our national interest to deter further Russian aggression.” Maybe so, but how is that best accomplished? Is it better to pursue a modern-day version of détente with Russia, as Trump seems inclined to do, or is it better to engage in a standoff with Moscow? Taylor seems to believe that it’s not even permissible to debate this issue. What’s more, Taylor puts the onus on Washington to prove its bona fides to Kiev rather than the reverse. It’s quite remarkable that Trump should have to display his credibility to Ukraine instead of it showing him that there is a benefit to America assisting a country that has been riven by blatant corruption, infighting and intrigue for decades. The ostensible focus of the congressional inquiry is a phone call between President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and the president’s withholding of aid to elicit an investigation into the Biden family’s business connections. The facts are known; there’s no smoking gun waiting to be uncovered. The forthcoming testimonies from diplomatic officials were already provided last month, and their substance ceremoniously leaked to sympathetic media outlets. There will be no surprise witness or shocking revelation to be had during the public testimony.

The Two Irreconcilable Realities of the Impeachment Hearings -Two Americas began watching two very different sets of hearings on Wednesday. In one, President Donald Trump is guilty of abusing power in many ways and on many occasions, and one such occasion is being dissected and laid out in great detail on national television. In the other America and the other set of hearings, Democrats are out to get Trump at any cost, have latched onto a muddled and inconsequential incident, and are laying it out in great detail on national television in the hopes of convincing the public that the President has done something wrong. These two realities do not overlap. The first reality is summed up in the opening statement by Adam Schiff, the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, who said, “The questions presented by this impeachment inquiry are whether President Trump sought to exploit that ally’s [Ukraine’s] vulnerability and invite Ukraine’s interference in our elections. Whether President Trump sought to condition official acts, such as a White House meeting or U.S. military assistance, on Ukraine’s willingness to assist with two political investigations that would help his reëlection campaign. And if President Trump did either, whether such an abuse of his power is compatible with the office of the Presidency.” The second reality is presented in an eighteen-page memo prepared for House Republicans in advance of the hearings. Viewed from the vantage point of the first reality, the defense that this memo seems to propose is full of holes, as my colleague John Cassidy has written. But for the second reality the memo paints a coherent picture. It says that the Ukraine story is confusing. It notes that Ukraine is a corrupt country, that Trump was wary of shouldering the burden of supporting it, and that there is no direct evidence that aid was held up pending the investigation—after all, in the end, the aid was released. According to the memo, Democrats have made a mountain out of the Ukraine molehill in order to get to Trump. In their zeal, they have been blind to Ukraine’s corruption and probable attempts to meddle in the U.S. election; they care only about Russian meddling, and only because they are out to undermine Trump.  In Reality One, the testimony of William B. Taylor, Jr., the acting Ambassador to Ukraine, contained a bombshell: information that the day after the infamous phone conversation between Trump and the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, a member of Taylor’s staff overheard a phone call between Trump and his Ambassador to the European Union, Gordon Sondland, in which Trump demanded dirt from Ukraine on the Bidens.  But in Reality Two Taylor’s testimony is itself further proof of the conspiracy against Trump. Each reality is impenetrable to the other. If you hold to Reality One, no amount of evidence that the Democrats are out to get Trump will change your mind—on the contrary, you believe that the Democrats should use anything they can get their hands on to try to expose the President’s malfeasance and get him removed from office. If you hold to Reality Two, all the evidence summoned by the Democrats will make you only more convinced that they are out to get the President, and the more evidence there is, the more obscure the Ukraine story will seem. The gap between these realities makes it difficult even to analyze the impeachment proceedings. In the framework of Reality One, Republicans appear to be mounting silly and shaky defenses or throwing up smoke screens by demanding an investigation of Joe and Hunter Biden. But Republicans are not actually defending the President against accusations of abuse of power; instead, they are mounting an offense against the Democrats, whose very enterprise they consider illegitimate.

Impeachment Is Redeeming the Blob - The congressional hearings investigating whether U.S. President Donald Trump should be impeached have riveted onlookers’ attention on a group of government officials who have thus far provided abundant evidence of presidential misconduct. As is often the case with Trump, some of the most damning evidence comes from his own lips—read the transcript!—or from the mouth of his truth-challenged attorney Rudy Giuliani. The whole sordid business came to light when an intelligence professional assigned to the National Security Council blew the whistle on Trump’s efforts to extort personal political favors from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Since then, the whistleblower’s account has been confirmed by a widening circle of civil servants, foreign service officers, decorated military officers, and a couple of Trump’s own appointees. For Trump’s defenders, of course, all this testimony is evidence not of the president’s guilt, but of a nefarious deep state conspiracy intended to thwart and oust a visionary president. You might think I’d be sympathetic to this otherwise improbable line of defense, insofar as my book The Hell of Good Intentionshighlights the negative impact the foreign policy elite (aka “the Blob”) has had on U.S. foreign policy. In particular, Chapter 6 of the book argues that the Blob has gone to some lengths to keep Trump from implementing the full “America First” program he advocated in 2016, aided in no small part by Trump’s character deficiencies and general incompetence. So is the Blob now trying to stage a coup?  Nope. But together with my experiences talking about the book in public over the past year and teaching it to my students at the Harvard Kennedy School, this episode has led me to rethink some of what I wrote in my book. Don’t get me wrong: I wouldn’t change any of the book’s core arguments, conclusions, or recommendations. But no piece of scholarship is perfect, and honest scholars ought to admit it when their thinking evolves over time. That’s how the scholarly enterprise is supposed to work: We do our research, write it up, and publish it, and then it gets praised, challenged, criticized (and worse of all, sometimes ignored). Ideas and arguments that other scholars deem worthy get incorporated into the literature; arguments that do not stand up to scrutiny get rejected or revised. In theory at least, the field advances over time, and we all get collectively smarter or at least better informed.

Summary of Fiona Hill’s Deposition Testimony - LawFare - The deposition transcript of former National Security Council (NSC) Senior Director Fiona Hill offers a detailed account of the effects of the campaign undertaken by Rudy Giuliani and his colleagues on the official U.S.-Ukraine relationship, the role of Gordon Sondland in coopting the Ukraine portfolio, and the sequence of events surrounding a July 10 White House meeting between administration officials and representatives of Ukrainian Volodymyr President Zelensky’s new government. At the NSC, Hill had been the senior director overseeing the European Union and NATO, as well as Russia and Ukraine. Hill was on paid leave from July 19 until her official retirement from the administration on Sept. 3, so her testimony includes no details about the July 25 phone call between Trump and Zelensky. Hill did not make an opening statement, but in questioning from committee staff and members, she charted the growing influence of conspiratorial ideas about Ukraine championed by Giuliani. She told the committees that she first became aware of Giuliani’s interest in Ukraine “sometime between ... January 2019 and March 2019” because of an article in The Hill and “because of Mr. Giuliani’s statements on television.” A series of news clips sent to the NSC by the White House Situation Room revealed what Hill perceived as the extent of Giuliani’s interest in Ukraine. In these clips, Hill recounted, “[t]here were references to George Soros; there were references to 2016; and then there were all kind of references to ... do-not-prosecute lists and statements from the Ukrainian prosecutor, Mr. Lutsenko, none of which I’d ever heard of anything about before.” Hill described finishing “extremely long days” and then having to page through cable news and YouTube to find about out Giuliani’s “meta-alternative narrative about Ukraine.” Hill was worried by Giuliani’s ideas and consulted with colleagues who thought that Giuliani’s fixation on Ukrainian conspiracy theories “was related to personal business interests on his part.” Despite Giuliani’s saying “all the time” that he was acting as an agent of the state, Hill underscored that “everyone [at the NSC] was completely unaware of any direct official role that Mr. Giuliani had been given on the Ukraine account.” Officials at the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine, as well as think tank researchers in Washington, D.C., expressed concerns to Hill about Giuliani’s activities.

Yovanovitch impeachment testimony gives burst of momentum to Democrats Democrats’ impeachment inquiry received a boost of momentum from the Friday testimony of Marie Yovanovitch, who faced public attacks by President Trump as she detailed in personal terms how a shadowy smear campaign successfully led to her removal as the top U.S. diplomat to Ukraine.In a moment that would’ve been perfect for television split screens, Yovanovitch was in the midst of describing the “terrible” feeling of learning she was being abruptly recalled from Kyiv when Trump issued a tweet attacking her diplomatic record, describing her as having a reverse-Midas touch when it came to foreign policy. “Honestly, after 33 years to our country — it was terrible, it was not the way I wanted my career to end,” Yovanovitch testified during the second public impeachment inquiry, shaking her head and closing her eyes as she recalled the moment. The president’s jab that “everywhere Marie Yovanovitch went turned bad” not only added to the sympathy that a career foreign officer was being bullied by the most powerful leader of the free world, but it also sparked claims among Democrats that Trump was seeking to intimidate the witness.   Shortly after the tweet was issued, House Intelligence Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) offered Yovanovitch the opportunity to respond.  “It’s very intimidating,” Yovanovitch said in response. “I can’t speak to what the president is trying to do, but I think the effect is to be intimidating.”   Trump, who later denied seeking to intimidate her, challenged her 33 years in public service. “She started off in Somalia, how did that go? Then fast forward to Ukraine, where the new Ukrainian President spoke unfavorably about her in my second phone call with him. It is a U.S. President’s absolute right to appoint ambassadors,” Trump tweeted. He later defended his free speech right to criticize the former ambassador.

Trump Just Released a Rough Transcript of His First Ukraine Call Where He Talked About Beauty Pageants — Not to be overtaken by another day of potentially damaging impeachment inquiry testimony, President Trump released a rough summary of his April phone with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. It's the second rough transcript of their conversations released by the White House, which appears to want to use the boringness of this second call as a shield against accusations of wrongdoing. The rough text of the 16-minute call from April 21 amounts to mostly pleasantries between the two presidents, and appears likely to be used by the White House as evidence that Trump had no devious intentions with regard to his approach to Ukraine. On the call, Trump praises previous Ukrainian delegations to his Miss Universe beauty pageant. Zelensky, meanwhile, invites Trump to taste his country’s “tasty” and “delicious” food. The rough transcript reads like a boring sitcom compared to the infamous July 25 exchange that launched his impeachment inquiry over whether he was trying to improperly influence the 2020 election by pressuring a foreign country for dirt on a top Democratic contender. On that call, Trump asked Zelensky to “look into” former Vice President Joe Biden. After Zelensky raises the idea of purchasing more American anti-tank missiles for the country’s bloody conflict against Russia-backed separatists in its eastern regions, Trump responded by asking for a “favor” — investigations of Democrats.

New witness claims first-hand account of Trump’s push for Ukraine probes - House impeachment investigators on Friday heard from a new witness claiming firsthand knowledge of President Trump's effort to enlist Ukrainian leaders to dig up dirt on his domestic political opponents. David Holmes, a State Department veteran now based in Kyiv, testified privately that he overheard a July phone conversation between Trump and Gordon Sondland, the U.S. ambassador to the European Union, in which the president sought an update on "the investigation" and Sondland delivered the news Trump wanted, according to the opening remarks obtained by The Hill. "So, he’s gonna do the investigation?" Trump asked, according to Holmes's testimony. "He’s gonna do it," Sondland replied. The call, Holmes said, occurred at a restaurant in Kyiv on July 26, one day after the now-famous phone conversation in which Trump asked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for "a favor" in the form of investigations into former Vice President Joe Biden and the 2016 elections. Both of those probes could have helped Trump politically, and the Democrats' impeachment inquiry is focused on whether Trump abused his office by recruiting a foreign leader for help in a U.S. election. Trump's Republican allies have criticized many of the witnesses who've testified in the investigation, saying their accounts lean too heavily on secondhand or thirdhand information and are therefore unreliable. Holmes's account was purportedly firsthand, and Democrats hailed his arrival in the Capitol.

Top Democrats privately concede major shift in public opinion on impeachment is unlikely --House Democrats are publicly holding out hope that historic impeachment hearings will persuade a vast majority of the American public that President Donald Trump committed high crimes and misdemeanors — but privately many acknowledge that it's unlikely to happen.In a private meeting this week, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her top lieutenants were skeptical about the prospects of a dramatic shift in opinion even as public impeachment hearings began this week, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter. The upshot, the sources said: Democrats need to move forward with impeachment proceedings even if the politics are murky, noting that even during Richard Nixon's presidency most of the public was divided until soon before he was forced to resign."Well, I think there are hard views on both sides," House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer told CNN when asked if he thought the public's views would shift dramatically. "And sadly, apparently, Trump was perhaps right when he said of his own supporters that he could shoot somebody in the middle of Fifth Avenue and they would not require any accountability." Democrats have made a concerted effort to shift their rhetoric to clearly convey to the public a more concise message: That Trump engaged in "bribery," which is cited in the Constitution on impeachment, when he pushed Ukrainian officials to investigate his political rivals in exchange for $400 million in military aid the country desperately sought — a message Pelosi conveyed on Thursday, a day after the first public impeachment proceedings.  Yet Democrats say there's still a challenge in convincing a large majority of the public that what Trump did amounts to an abuse of power.

GOP chairman says Senate impeachment trial could last 6-8 weeks - Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) predicted the Senate’s handling of potential articles of impeachment could take up to two months. “We basically hear the case, and then we have to come to a verdict. That will probably be a six- or eight- weeks process,” Burr said at an event at Wake Forest University with Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.). Burr’s comments come as the House is set to enter the public phase of its impeachment inquiry into whether President Trump tied aid to Ukraine to the country opening an investigation into Vice President Biden and his son Hunter Biden. An eight-week time frame would be longer than the Senate’s roughly five-week trial of former President Clinton. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) previously told GOP senators that one potential timeline would be for the House to vote on impeachment articles by Thanksgiving and for the Senate to wrap up its trial by the end of the year. Now, the House is aiming to hold an impeachment vote by Christmas, which would set up a Senate trial for next year.

There’s a Surprisingly Plausible Path to Removing Trump From Office - By most everyone’s judgment, the Senate will not vote to remove President Donald Trump from office if the House impeaches him. But what if senators could vote on impeachment by secret ballot? If they didn’t have to face backlash from constituents or the media or the president himself, who knows how many Republican senators would vote to remove? A secret impeachment ballot might sound crazy, but it’s actually quite possible. In fact, it would take only three senators to allow for that possibility. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has said he will immediately move to hold a trial to adjudicate the articles of impeachment if and when the Senate receives them from the House of Representatives. Article I, Section 3, of the Constitution does not set many parameters for the trial, except to say that “the Chief Justice shall preside,” and “no Person shall be convicted without the Concurrence of two thirds of the Members present.” That means the Senate has sole authority to draft its own rules for the impeachment trial, without judicial or executive branch oversight. During the last impeachment of a president, Bill Clinton, the rules were hammered out by Democrats and Republicans in a collaborative process, as then Senate leaders Trent Lott and Tom Daschle recently pointed out in a Washington Post op-ed. The rules passed unanimously. That’s unlikely this time, given the polarization that now defines our politics. McConnell and his fellow Republicans are much more likely to dictate the rules with little input from Democrats. But, according to current Senate procedure, McConnell will still need a simple majority—51 of the 53 Senate Republicans—to support any resolution outlining rules governing the trial. That means that if only three Republican senators were to break from the caucus, they could block any rule they didn’t like. (Vice President Mike Pence can’t break ties in impeachment matters.) Those three senators, in turn, could demand a secret ballot and condition their approval of the rest of the rules on getting one. Some might say transparency in congressional deliberations and votes is inviolable, and it’s true that none of the previous Senate impeachments have been conducted via secret ballot. But the Senate’s role in an impeachment is analogous to a U.S. jury, where secret ballots are often used. When Electoral College gridlock has resulted in the House picking the president—the House elected Thomas Jefferson in 1800 and John Quincy Adams in 1824—that vote has been secret. And, of course, when citizens vote for president, they do so in private.

Pelosi says Trump has admitted to bribery as impeachment probe intensifies - (Reuters) - U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi said on Thursday that President Donald Trump already has admitted to actions that amount to bribery in the Ukraine scandal at the heart of a Democratic-led impeachment inquiry. “The bribe is to grant or withhold military assistance in return for a public statement of a fake investigation into the elections. That’s bribery,” Pelosi, the top Democrat in Congress, said at a news conference. “What the president has admitted to and says it’s perfect, I say it’s perfectly wrong. It’s bribery. Democrats are looking into whether Trump abused his power by withholding $391 million in U.S. security aid to Ukraine as leverage to pressure Kiev to conduct an investigation that would benefit him politically. The money, approved by the U.S. Congress to help a U.S. ally combat Russia-backed separatists in the eastern part of the country, was later provided to Ukraine. Trump has denied any wrongdoing. Pelosi made her comments a day after the Democratic-controlled House held its first public hearing in the impeachment inquiry she announced in September. Another central figure - former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch - is due to testify on Friday.

William Barr is racing to deliver a report that blows up the impeachment inquiry—and everything else -- Attorney General William Barr is racing to complete a new “report” before Thanksgiving. And if Barr’s very poor summary of the Mueller report threw Trump a lifeline by distorting the real findings of the special counsel investigation, this new report looks to be more like an atom bomb, designed to incinerate Washington by putting the whole Justice Department behind a conspiracy theory that rewrites history and declares open warfare on political opponents. And Republicans are already meeting with Barr to plan a “roll out” for this supposedly classified report in order to maximize its impact.Barr appears to have taken the results of an inspector general report that was expected to end weeks ago, rolled it together with the investigation-into-the-investigation that he launched under the nominal control of prosecutor John Durham, and capped it all with the “findings” of a world tour that included attempts to get the Australian government, the Italian government, and the U.K. government to participate in attacks on U.S. intelligence agencies. What’s going to come out the other end could be a dud, but it could launch an effort to derail the impeachment process—and more.Barr’s effort to create a comprehensive, all-conspiracy-theories-combined report seems to have delayed delivery of the long-expected findings from Department of Justice Inspector General Michael Horowitz. Republicans were generally thrilled byHorowitz’s earlier report in which he was critical of former FBI director James Comey for his handling of some classified materials. That report had right-wing news outlets clamoring over potential charges against Comey. But despite claims that the findings justified Republican attacks on the entire Russia investigation, the actual complaints were minor and led to nothing. That seems unlikely to be the case this time. As The Washington Post reports, Barr has subsumed Horowitz’s work because “the inspector general does not have the authority to declassify information” and Barr apparently intends to release information that dips into classified documents at both the FBI and CIA to tell his story of how the Russia investigation was unjustified from the start. Barr is having advance meetings (including one on Wednesday with Senate Judiciary chair Lindsey Graham) so that talking points and presentations can be ready in advance of an official release.

Facebook and YouTube remove posts naming CIA impeachment whistleblower - Multiple media sources reported on Friday that the social media platforms Facebook and YouTube were removing posts that identified by name the CIA whistleblower behind the Congressional impeachment inquiry of President Donald Trump. In an email statement, Facebook said, “Any mention of the potential whistleblower’s name violates our coordinating harm policy, which prohibits content ‘outing of witness, informant or activist’,” adding, “We are removing any and all mentions of the potential whistleblower’s name and will revisit this decision should their name be widely published in the media or used by public figures in debate.” CNN also reported that YouTube issued a statement saying that it was using a combination of artificial intelligence software and human monitors to find and delete videos with the name of the “Ukrainegate” whistleblower. “The removals, the spokesperson added, would affect the titles and descriptions of videos as well as the video’s actual content,” the CNN report said. Facebook’s claim that any content posted on its platform naming Ciaramella constitutes “outing” the whistleblower is absurd. The alleged identity of the career CIA analyst who filed a complaint regarding the July 25 phone call between President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been known since October 30 when the pro-Republican Real Clear Politics website published his name. When his name was published by Real Clear Politics, the whistleblower’s attorneys—in typical CIA fashion—said they could “neither confirm nor deny” that Ciaramella was their client. Ciaramella is a plausible candidate for being whistleblower, given his background as a registered Democrat and CIA analyst with expertise in Ukraine and Russia. He worked under both Obama National Security Advisor Susan Rice and Trump National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster. In mid-2017 he was sent back to the CIA amid accusations that he was leaking anti-Trump information to the media. While Ciaramella’s name has been widely circulated by Republican political figures, right-wing news sites and former CIA analyst and Trump aide Fred Fleitz said, “everyone knows who he is,” the Democrats and their allies in the media at the New York Times, Washington Post and major television networks have not made his name public. Even an article in the New York Times on Friday that reported on Facebook’s censoring of posts by the right-wing website Breitbart did not include Ciaramella’s name. By taking the step of scrubbing posts mentioning allegations that are widely shared and reported, Facebook and YouTube are now joining with these corporate media organizations and blocking the public from having access to important information.

Fascism Is Here Now — It's Your Choice - Dave Cohen -To my fellow Americans—  Go back to my last post and click on the link underlying the text "sham impeachment bullshit."  What will you see?  That was a Tim Poll video. You can no longer watch it on youtube. What was Tim's crime? He talked about the partisan political ties of the so-called "whistleblower". That Democrat political operative's name is Eric Ciaramella. Everything Tim discussed was already public knowledge. It was on the record. For example, Real Clear Politics had already written a story outing this "deep state" asshole. And now, according to our corporate and political overlords, any story on facebook or youtube mentioning this dickhead's name is officially a conspiracy theory. That's the elite establishment party line. That's what the American Politburo wants you to believe.  That's fascism. It's already here. There is still a chance to defeat it but that chance is fading fast.

Rand Paul Drops The 'C'-Word- Names Whistleblower, Demands Testimony - A week ago, Senator Rand Paul said that he might release the whistleblower's name. Over the weekend, Senator Paul said the whistleblower's name should be released. And today, Senator Paul has named the whistleblower publicly...Eric Ciamerella During a Wednesday interview on Washington, D.C.-based WMAL, Paul named Ciaramella himself and said he should be brought in testify to clarify whether he is indeed the whistleblower.“I think Eric Ciaramella needs to be pulled in for testimony, and then I think it will be ultimately determined at that point,” said Paul.“But I think he is a person of interest in the sense that he was at the Ukraine desk when Joe Biden was there when Hunter Biden was working for the Ukrainian oligarch. So simply for that alone, I think he’s a material witness who needs to be brought in.”“I think the whistleblower needs to come in because he needs to be asked about, did he know about the conflict of interest?” said Paul.“He was there during the time of Joe Biden and Hunter Biden working for $50,000 a month for a Ukrainian oligarch, so he needs to be asked about that.”As The Washington Examiner reports, Paul also said he wants answers about Ciaramella’s ties to the Democratic Party and Rep. Adam Schiff, whose staff knew about the whistleblower’s report before it was filed.Now the name is out there in the public (as if it wasn't earlier), will Mark Zuckerberg allow it to be mentioned on his platform? All of which is worth noting since Rep. Schiff told Congress this morning that "I do not know the identity of the whistleblower." - Seemingly a total lie, given what we know about their pre-hearing meetings...

Horowitz Report Will Be Damning, Criminal Referrals Likely -  Department of Justice Inspector General Michael Horowitz’s much anticipated report on his investigation into the FBI’s probe into President Trump’s campaign is expected to be made public before Thanksgiving and the outcome is alleged to contain several criminal referrals, according to sources who spoke with SaraACarter.com. Horowitz’s investigation on the bureau’s probe into the now debunked theory that Trump colluded with Russia in the 2016 presidential election will more than likely result in the declassification of documents - requested by senior Republican lawmakers for more than several years. These are the same documents President Trump turned over to Attorney General William Barr in May,  giving him ‘full and complete authority” to declassify.Those documents will contain several classified pages of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act on former Trump campaign advisor Carter Page, exculpatory evidence that was withheld from the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court, the so-called ‘Gang of Eight’ folder (which contained exculpatory information), as well as the email chain between FBI investigators in the Russia probe and then-FBI Director James Comey. Those emails also include discussions with lawyers in the DOJ’s national security division. As previously reported, the email chains will contain information that prove the FBI knew prior to obtaining a warrant to spy on Page that former British spy Christopher Steele’s information in his infamous dossier on Trump could not be proven.  It is also expected to reveal that the FBI knew that Steele was leaking to the media but then used those media reports are separate evidence in their request for a FISA warrant, known as circular intelligence reporting. Circular reporting is when a law enforcement official uses false confirmation by making a piece of information appear to come from multiple independent sources.Horowitz’s report is also going to contain evidence that the FBI handled Hillary Clinton’s campaign differently than that of President Trump’s campaign. It will reveal that she had received a detailed debriefing from the FBI on foreign attempts to make contact with her campaign. It will reveal the deep bias and animus those FBI officials had toward the Trump campaign.

Exposing John Brennan's CIA Trump Task Force - There is considerable evidence that the American system of government may have been victimized by an illegal covert operation organized and executed by the U.S. intelligence and national security community. Former Director of National Intelligence Jim Clapper, former CIA Director John Brennan and former FBI Director Jim Comey appear to have played critical leadership roles in carrying out this conspiracy and they may not have operated on their own. Almost certainly what they may have done would have been explicitly authorized by the former President of the United States, Barack Obama, and his national security team. It must have seemed a simple operation for the experienced CIA covert action operatives. To prevent the unreliable and unpredictable political upstart Donald Trump from being nominated as the GOP presidential candidate or even elected it would be necessary to create suspicion that he was the tool of a resurgent Russia, acting under direct orders from Vladimir Putin to empower Trump and damage the campaign of Hillary Clinton. Even though none of the alleged Kremlin plotters would have expected Trump to actually beat Hillary, it was plausible to maintain that they would have hoped that a weakened Clinton would be less able to implement the anti-Russian agenda that she had been promoting. Many observers in both Russia and the U.S. believed that if she had been elected armed conflict with Moscow would have been inevitable, particularly if she moved to follow her husband’s example and push to have both Georgia and Ukraine join NATO, which Russia would have regarded as an existential threat. Trump’s surprising victory forced a pivot, with Clapper, Brennan and Comey adjusting the narrative to make it appear that Trump the traitor may have captured the White House due to help from the Kremlin, making him a latter-day Manchurian Candidate. The lesser allegations of Russian meddling were quickly elevated to devastating assertions that the Republican had only won with Putin’s assistance. No substantive evidence for the claim of serious Russian meddling has ever been produced in spite of years of investigation, but the real objective was to plant the story that would plausibly convince a majority of Americans that the election of Donald Trump was somehow illegitimate. In spite of considerable naysaying, the Deep State is real, not just a wild conspiracy theory. Many Americans nevertheless do not believe that the Deep State exists, that it is a politically driven media creation much like Russiagate itself was, but if one changes the wording a bit and describes the Deep State as the Establishment, with its political power focused in Washington and its financial center in New York City, the argument that there exists a cohesive group of power brokers who really run the country becomes much more plausible. 

 Bill Clinton advises Trump to ignore impeachment: 'You got hired to do a job'  - Former President Clinton (D) on Thursday advised President Trump to leave fighting impeachment to his staff and focus on his agenda. "My message would be, look, you got hired to do a job," Clinton said during a phone interview with CNN. "You don't get the days back you blow off. Every day is an opportunity to make something good happen. "And I would say, 'I've got lawyers and staff people handling this impeachment inquiry, and they should just have at it,'" he continued. "Meanwhile, I'm going to work for the American people. That's what I would do." Clinton is in a rare position to offer insight on how Trump might handle the prospect of impeachment, given the GOP-controlled House impeached the former Democratic president in 1998. The House held its first public hearings on Wednesday in its impeachment inquiry into allegations that Trump pressured a foreign government to investigate a domestic political rival. While Clinton managed to approve legislation and work through an agenda throughout his impeachment process, Trump has said multiple times he will not work with Congress while the Democratic-controlled lower chamber investigates him. That posture has thrown into jeopardy the president's efforts to pass a trade deal and approve legislation to lower drug pricing, among other items.

Jeffrey Epstein wasn’t trafficking women — and he didn’t kill himself, brother says - Mark Epstein gets angry when he is asked probing questions about his brother. He curses, insists the questions aren’t relevant and sometimes slams down the phone. Mostly, he defends his older brother, Jeffrey Epstein, insisting he wasn’t a sex trafficker at all.“He was innocent and, until proven guilty, you are entitled to bail in America,’’ said Mark Epstein, Jeffrey Epstein’s only sibling, next of kin and likely heir to his brother’s estimated $500 million fortune.Mark Epstein is talking, but only because he believes that his 66-year-old brother was killed, and he is challenging both the Department of Justice and New York City’s chief medical examiner. He insists the pathologist erred in concluding that his brother hanged himself in August at the federal Metropolitan Correctional Center.  “I could see if he got a life sentence, I could then see him taking himself out, but he had a bail hearing coming up,’’ said Epstein, a real estate mogul who says he knows very little about his late brother’s businesses — or his brother’s alleged sex crimes against underage girls and young women. Mark Epstein, 65, lives in New York, where he grew up with his brother and parents in Brooklyn. He says at the time of his brother’s death, on Aug. 10, he had not seen him in seven years, and did not speak to him often. “Jeffrey and I were not that close, we shared brother stuff, but I was not involved in what he was doing. When he first got in trouble he called me. We were very straight with each other. I wasn’t going to lecture him.’’ Jeffrey Epstein was first arrested in Palm Beach, Florida, in 2006. A multimillionaire whose exact source of wealth remains a mystery, Jeffrey cultivated friendships with powerful and elite scientists, politicians, CEOs, celebrities, academics and philanthropists — as well as former and current presidents, such as Bill Clinton and Donald Trump.

Epstein jail guards had been offered plea deal, AP sources say - Federal prosecutors offered a plea deal to two correctional officers responsible for guarding Jeffrey Epstein on the night of his death, but the officers have declined the offer, people familiar with the matter told The Associated Press. The existence of the plea offer signals the Justice Department is considering criminal charges in connection with the wealthy financier’s death at the Metropolitan Correctional Center in New York in August. The city’s medical examiner ruled Epstein’s death a suicide. The guards on Epstein’s unit are suspected of failing to check on him every half hour, as required, and of fabricating log entries to show they had. As part of the proposed plea deal, prosecutors wanted the guards to admit they falsified the prison records, according to the people familiar with the matter. They spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not permitted to publicly discuss the investigation. The U.S. attorney’s office in Manhattan had no comment on the plea offer. Both guards were working overtime because of staffing shortages. They have been placed on administrative leave while the FBI and the Justice Department’s inspector general investigate the circumstances surrounding Epstein’s death. The 66-year-old had been awaiting trial on charges of sexually abusing teenage girls.

 Richest 1% of Americans Close to Surpassing Wealth of Middle Class - The U.S.’s historic economic expansion has so enriched one-percenters they now hold almost as much wealth as the middle- and upper-middle classes combined. The top 1% of American households have enjoyed huge returns in the stock market in the past decade, to the point that they now control more than half of the equity in U.S. public and private companies, according to data from the Federal Reserve. Those fat portfolios have America’s elite gobbling up an ever-bigger piece of the pie.The very richest had assets of about $35.4 trillion in the second quarter, or just shy of the $36.9 trillion held by the tens of millions of people who make up the 50th percentile to the 90th percentile of Americans -- much of the middle and upper-middle classes. Chalk up at least part of their good fortune to interest rates, said Stephen Colavito, chief market strategist at Lakeview Capital Partners, an Atlanta-based investment firm for high-net-worth investors. People can’t get much of a return on certificates of deposits and other passive investments, so they’ve pumped money into stocks and propped up the market overall, he said.In turn, those investments make the wealthy eligible to put money into exclusive hedge funds and private equity funds. Many such funds require $5 million of investments to qualify.“The wealthier that the wealthy get, the more opportunity they have,” Colavito said.It may not be long before one-percenters actually surpass the middle and upper-middle classes. Household wealth in the upper-most bracket grew by $650 billion in the second quarter of 2019, while Americans in the 50th to 90th percentiles saw a $210 billion gain.

 America's Richest 1% Now Own As Much Wealth As The Middle And Lower Classes Combined  - Two weeks ago we pointed out that even as (or rather, because) stocks hit daily all time highs, we now have mass public unrest (on and off) in: France, Spain, Algeria; Iraq: Lebanon; Egypt; Russia; Hong Kong; Venezuela; Chile; Ecuador; and Bolivia. The is a simple reason for this social anger: an unprecedented wealth and income divide as a result of constant central bank interventions in capital markets, which have made upward social mobility virtually impossible and stagnant wage growth the norm, and nowhere more so than in the US, where as Bloomberg reports citing the latest Fed data, "one-percenters" now hold almost as much wealth as the middle- and upper-middle classes combined, as a result of the relentless ascent in stocks which added another $1 trillion in market value in just the past week, bringing the total to $82.7 trillion. Here are the facts: as the NBER recently reported, in 2016 the richest one percent of households held more than half of all outstanding stock, financial securities, trust equity, and business equity, and 40 percent of non-home real estate. The top 10 percent of families as a group directly owned over 93% of all stock and mutual fund ownership. Moreover, despite the fact that almost half of all households owned stock shares either directly or indirectly through mutual funds, trusts, or various pension accounts, the richest 10 percent of households controlled 84 percent of the total value of these stocks, though less than its 93 percent share of directly owned stocks and mutual funds.  And with the stock market soaring to new highs, it will hardly be a surprise that the "top 1%" of American households have enjoyed huge returns in the stock market in the past decade, ironically enough using data from the Federal Reserve, which is directly responsible for this unprecedented wealth distribution. And, as Bloomberg notes, "those fat portfolios have America’s elite gobbling up an ever-bigger piece of the pie." In specific terms, this means that the very richest 1% had assets of about $35.4 trillion in the second quarter, or just shy of the $36.9 trillion held by the tens of millions of people who make up the 50th percentile to the 90th percentile of Americans -- much of the middle and upper-middle classes.

Have billionaires accumulated their wealth illegitimately? - Economist. Billionaires have never exactly been popular with the radical left. But with a member of the nine-zero club sitting in the White House, and a decade of slow growth in living standards, some Democrats have taken to attacking billionaires to draw attention to their argument for root-and-branch economic reform. “Billionaires should not exist,” says Bernie Sanders, a presidential candidate. Plutocrat-bashing has become part of the debate in Britain, too, where an election will be held on December 12th.  Socialists argue that anyone who has become fantastically rich has profited from a rigged system. “Every billionaire is a policy failure,” To assess this claim The Economist has drawn on data from Forbes, a business magazine, on billionaires in the rich world, updating an index of crony capitalism that we first put together in 2014 (see chart). In the past decade the wealth of the world’s 2,200-odd plutocrats (which puts them inside the world’s top 0.0001%) has risen much faster than global gdp. Still, most of the world’s billionaire wealth has been earned fair and square. Oprah Winfrey, for instance, has a fortune of about $3bn. It is one thing to feel that having so much money is distasteful. It is quite another to argue that these people have accumulated their wealth illegitimately and should be stripped of it. But some billionaires are less upstanding, indulging in what economists call “rent-seeking”. This takes place when the owners of an input of production—labour, machines, intellectual property, capital—extract more profit than they would get in a competitive market. Such activity may or may not be illegal, and often involves cartels and lobbying for rules that benefit a firm at the expense of competitors and customers. Our analysis identifies industries where rent-seeking is common, including mining, defence, construction and casinos. This time it also includes the largest tech companies, since many of them have engaged in anticompetitive practices.Three-quarters of billionaires’ wealth in advanced economies was fairly acquired. Still, rentier wealth has risen relative to gdp. Some countries are more cronyfied than others. Sweden and Germany less so. But in America rent-seeking industries made one in five billionaires and explain a third of total billionaire wealth. What should be done? Governments could do more to expose oligopolies to competition. Another option would be higher taxes on wealth transfers (according to a separate analysis, one-third of global billionaire wealth is inherited). Making the economy more competitive would do more for ordinary folk than tarring all plutocrats with the same brush.

Jamie Dimon, who made $31 million last year, thinks wealth inequality is a problem - The growing wealth gap separating the rich from the rest of the U.S. is an issue that needs to be resolved, J.P. Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said in a “60 Minutes” interview that aired Sunday night on CBS. “I think it’s a huge problem,” Dimon said. “I think the wealthy have been getting wealthier too much in many ways, so middle class incomes have been kind of flat for maybe 15 years or so, and that’s not particularly good in America.” Dimon added that people at the lower end of the spectrum have “particularly been left behind,” noting: “We haven’t done a good job growing our economy. That would’ve fixed a lot of that problem.” His remarks come amid increased criticism of the rich by certain U.S. presidential hopefuls, particularly Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren from Massachusetts. On Oct. 23, Warren called in a tweet for billionaire investor Leon Cooperman to “pitch in a bit more so everyone else has a chance at the American dream.” The tweet drew the Cooperman’s ire. When asked why he spoke out against Warren, a tearful Cooperman said, “I care.” Warren responded to Cooperman’s remarks by tweeting: “One thing I know he cares about—his fortune.” She then criticized Cooperman’s investments in student-loan company Navient and said she cares “about an entire generation of students being crushed by student loan debt.”   But while J.P. Morgan’s Dimon is worried about growing wealth inequality — a Credit Suisse report from last month said millionaires now hold 44% of the world’s total wealth — he reprimanded Warren and others for their criticisms of the wealthy. “Anything that vilifies people, I just don’t like. I think that most people are good; not all of them,” Dimon said in the Sunday interview. “I think you should vilify Nazis, but you shouldn’t vilify people who’ve worked hard to accomplish things.” Dimon also deflected questions about him making $31 million in 2018. He said J.P. Morgan Chase’s board of directors sets his salary and “I have nothing to do with it.” He reiterated, however, that there are solutions to wealth inequality, such as changing the U.S. miniumum wage and lowering taxes for the poor and the middle class. “The problems are real, it does not mean free enterprise [is] bad.”

Jamie Dimon doubles down on his defense of billionaires after Warren spat — saying ‘vilify Nazis’ instead -- JPMorgan's CEO, Jamie Dimon, in an interview with CBS doubled down on his retort against Elizabeth Warren.  Dimon, who is worth $1.6 billion according to Forbes, spoke with CBS's Lesley Stahl on "60 Minutes", where he touched on the causes of the 2008 financial crash, the American economy and cancer survival. Stahl asked Dimon: "So Elizabeth Warren said in Iowa the other day, 'Our democracy has been hijacked by the rich and powerful,' and you jumped in and said this week about her that she was 'vilifying successful people and having harsh words for Wall Street bankers.'" Dimon responded: "Most people are good, not all of 'em," adding, "I think you should vilify Nazis, but you shouldn't vilify people who worked hard to accomplish things. And so my comment is, I think it's American society – we're just attacking each other all the time." Dimon, who has been at the helm of America's biggest bank since 2005, has publicly spatted with Warren about the topic of billionaires,with the CEO saying in the past: "She uses some pretty harsh words — some would say vilifies successful people. We should applaud successful people." In the "60 Minutes" interview, which aired on Sunday, Dimon also criticized Trump's tax cuts — despite the policy boosting JPMorgan profits $3.7 billion. JPMorgan has crushed earnings targets this year, with the last quarter results boasting a record level of revenue.  "I would not have cut the tax on the rich. I would've extended the Earned Income Tax Credit instead – which is like a negative income tax credit for lower-paid people," said Dimon in the interview.   He added: "We probably should change the minimum wage, which I don't think has been changed for like 10 or 15 years. There are solutions to these problems. The problems are real. It does not mean Free Enterprise is bad."

 Jamie Dimon Tells 60 Minutes He’s a Patriot; There’s Good Reason to Think He’s a Crime Boss – Pam Martens - Jamie Dimon was interviewed by Lesley Stahl this evening on the CBS investigative news program, 60 Minutes. The gist of Dimon’s argument is that candidates for President, such as Senator Elizabeth Warren, should stop vilifying him simply because he’s “successful.” Dimon also wants the public to know that it’s “dead wrong” to think he’s not a “patriot.”  Dimon is a bit more than “successful” when it comes to the pile of money he has accumulated. According to Forbes, Dimon is worth $1.6 billion. The bulk of that money has come from stock grants while serving as Chief Executive Officer of the largest bank in the U.S., JPMorgan Chase, since December 31, 2005 as well as Chairman of the Board since December 31, 2006.  Unfortunately, there is a very substantive argument against Dimon being a patriot and a very persuasive argument that he’s a crime boss sitting atop a federally-insured bank backstopped by the U.S. taxpayer that has scooped up $1.6 trillion in deposits from honest folks across America. In JPMadoff: The Unholy Alliance between America’s Biggest Bank and America’s Biggest Crook. Chapter Five of the book is titled: “The Case for Prosecuting Officers of JPMorgan Chase Under RICO.” The trial lawyers write:“This country cannot move forward with integrity until it faces the fact that bankers have criminalized the financial services industry. We, the people, have to demand an honest government that enforces the law, even against super rich criminals. As Robert Kennedy said, ‘Every society gets the kind of criminal it deserves. What is equally true is that every community gets the kind of law enforcement it insists on…If Jamie Dimon is running a criminal institution, he should be prosecuted for it. And law enforcement has the perfect tool for such a prosecution: the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act (‘RICO’).”What gave the trial lawyers the idea that Jamie Dimon might be running a criminal institution? For starters, it is the only U.S. bank in history to have pleaded guilty to three criminal felony counts and kept the same man, Dimon, as its CEO despite the unprecedented criminal charges. (Remember, this is a federally-insured bank that will put the taxpayer on the hook if it goes belly up from criminal activities.) It is possible that prosecutors in the U.S. Department of Justice have read the RICO recommendations mapped out in the book by the trial lawyers because just this past September the Justice Department charged that the bank was running a criminal enterprise out of its precious metals desk over a period of eight years and charged three of its traders, including the head of the desk, under the RICO statute – which is typically reserved for organized crime figures.

JPMorgan Has Radically Changed Its Balance Sheet, Shrinking Its Cash at the Fed by $145 Billion - Pam Martens - JPMorgan Chase is not a bank that federal regulators can simply put on autopilot and hope for the best. When the U.S. Senate’s Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations conducted a formal probe into how the bank lost $6.2 billion of its federally-insured bank’s deposits by gambling in derivatives in London in 2012, the Chair of the subcommittee, former Senator Carl Levin, said that the bank had “piled on risk, hid losses, disregarded risk limits, manipulated risk models, dodged oversight, and misinformed the public.” Over the past five years, the bank has admitted to three criminal felony charges brought by the U.S. Department of Justice and is currently under an ongoing criminal probe by federal prosecutors over charges that its traders ran an eight-year criminal enterprise out of its precious metals trading desk in New York. But it seems that the Federal Reserve, the regulator of the largest bank holding companies in the U.S., which include JPMorgan Chase, is letting JPMorgan Chase call the shots on the amount of cash reserves it has to hold at the Fed in order to remain viable during a financial panic.   A study published this year by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review showed that through the third quarter of 2017, JPMorgan Chase had been meeting its Liquidity Coverage Ratio with predominantly cash reserves held at the Federal Reserve. JPMorgan Chase, for reasons yet to be explained, has now radically changed its mix of high-quality liquid assets from a majority of cash reserves held at the Federal Reserve to 63 percent made up of securities.According to the most recent 10-Q that JPMorgan Chase filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, from September 30 of last year to September 30 of this year, the bank reduced its cash position that was predominantly held at Federal Reserve banks by $145 billion from $344.66 billion to $199.8 billion. During the same period, to meet its required level of High-Quality Liquid Assets (HQLA), it increased its securities holdings by $147 billion. (See chart below from the 10-Q.)According to a note in the SEC filing, the securities that have replaced the liquid cash include “Predominantly U.S. Treasuries, U.S. GSE [government-sponsored enterprises] and U.S. government agency MBS [mortgage-backed securities], and sovereign bonds net of applicable haircuts under the LCR [Liquidity Coverage Ratio] rules.” What makes this move out of Federal Reserve cash by JPMorgan Chase particularly curious is that the CEO of the bank, Jamie Dimon, admitted during his earnings call with analysts on October 15 that his bank didn’t have adequate funds on deposit at the Federal Reserve to engage in the repo market on September 17 when overnight lending rates spiked to 10 percent and the Federal Reserve had to pump money out to Wall Street for the first time since the financial crisis.   Looking at the SEC filing, Dimon’s statement seems to have fallen short of the full story, for example, that the bank made the willful decision over the past 12 months to dramatically draw down its cash position at the Fed and move it into securities. During the same period of September 30, 2018 to September 30, 2019, JPMorgan Chase increased its trading assets by $82 billion to a total of $496 billion while reducing its loan portfolio by $39.3 billion. Its off-balance-sheet exposures increased by $6 billion to $687 billion.

 "It's As If JPMorgan And Goldman Vanished..." The equity-ification of the bond market has been closely followed by Bloomberg News and other financial journalists. Unfortunately for the big banks, it's a trend that has largely been led by fintech firms like TradeWeb and Bloomberg. Many corporate bonds from investment grade to deep in speculative territory can be found trading on-the-run on both platforms. This trend virtually guarantees that, even as trading volume increases (thanks to the growing prevalence of HFT "market makers") banks' trading revenue will likely continue to decline, though in its early years in the pre-crisis days some believed the pullback in bank trading revenue might be temporary. Trading revenue has been sliding since the financial crisis. According to BBG data, trading revenues at the largest banks have fallen for six out of the past seven quarters to their lowest levels in decades, with 2019 expected to set a new low. Last year’s $110 billion revenue haul at the 12 largest global banks was down from $149 billion in 2010, and the biggest firms are down more than 5% through the first nine months of 2019. If we add the expected slide from 2019, that's roughly equivalent to Goldman and JPM disappearing from the market. In its story, BBG contends that the loss of some of the most lucrative pre-crisis products, like synthetic CDOs and their ilk, is another factor driving the fall in trading revenues among the big banks. But although markets for these securities are much smaller, and the products themselves slightly less lucrative, we've written extensively about their slow, creeping return (albeit in a "safer" packaging guaranteed to not spark the implosion of the global financial system). It's only a matter of time before banks really ratchet up the marketing of these products. Investors' reaction to bank earnings this season proved once again that they're not ready to simply accept the drop in trading revenues as a secular trend affecting the entire industry. No, the big banks will face tremendous pressure to do whatever they can to revive the business. Some might try to buy their way out of it by gobbling up some of the smaller firms who BBG says account for one-third of the $39 billion drop in banking revenue mentioned above (BBG blamed lower fees and spread-compression driven by electronic trading for the other two-thirds of the drop).

Next in Google’s Quest for Consumer Dominance: Banking --  WSJ.  Google will soon offer checking accounts to consumers, becoming the latest Silicon Valley heavyweight to push into finance. The project, code-named Cache, is expected to launch next year with accounts run by Citigroup Inc. and a credit union at Stanford University, a tiny lender in Google’s backyard.

 Google-Citi partnership stirs privacy concerns In the wake of Google’s announcement that it will partner with Citigroup and a Silicon Valley credit union to offer U.S. checking accounts, one big unanswered question concerns how customers’ transaction data will be used. It’s a question that could resonate not only with wary consumers, but also with banks that are worried about big tech’s ambitions in financial services, as well as lawmakers and regulators concerned about the tech industry’s growing reach. Google operates the world’s largest advertising platform, generating $116 billion in ad revenue last year alone. This empire was built on the search giant’s vast array of consumer data, which allows advertisers to target potential customers with tremendous precision. Because checking account data reveals how consumers spend their money on a day-to-day basis, it has obvious value to Google. But the Mountain View, Calif.-based company was close-lipped Wednesday about how it plans to use such information. Google did pledge not to sell checking account users’ financial data. The company also said that it does not currently use data from its mobile wallet, Google Pay, for advertising purposes. But the company would not say Wednesday whether that Google Pay policy will continue when the new checking accounts launch sometime around the middle of next year. Google plans to offer the accounts through Google Pay. Through a spokesman, Google did say that it recognizes financial information is more sensitive than other kinds of data. The company also stated that it will be working to ensure that account holders remain in control, and that rigorous standards for privacy and security are upheld. The Google accounts are expected to be cobranded by either Citi or Stanford Federal Credit Union, depending on the preferences of specific applicants, and whether they are eligible to open an account at the $3 billion-asset credit union, which serves people affiliated with Stanford University and various companies in Silicon Valley.

Is time running out to save black-owned banks? A recent bank failure and a new legislative effort are drawing attention to the struggles of black-owned banks. City National Bank of New Jersey was shuttered by regulators earlier this month, reducing the number of black-owned banks to 21. The failure came on the heels of a new effort by Rep. Gregory Meeks, D-N.Y., to help minority-owned banks. Meeks is working on a draft of the proposed Ensuring Diversity in Community Banking Act, which would boost federal government deposits in minority banks and provide incentives for investing in those lenders. “Addressing the rapid disappearance of minority banks, and related issues including banking deserts and lending discrimination are priorities,” said Andrei Vasilescu, a Meeks spokesman. Meeks expects to formally introduce the bill “in the coming weeks and looks forward to bipartisan support." Meeks, as chairman of the House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Consumer Protection and Financial Institutions, held a hearing last month on the challenges minority banks face. He’s set to hold a session on Wednesday to question regulators about efforts to promote minority institutions. Black-owned banks have suffered greatly since the financial crisis, with their ranks declining by more than half since the end of 2007. Eight of the 22 black-owned banks in business on June 30 lost money over the prior 18 months, including City National, which lost $5.1 million during that span, according to data compiled by the FDIC. Six others earned less than $1 million over that period.

CECL, fintech threat: What's keeping community bankers up at night - Community bankers have a lot more to worry about than falling interest rates. Fintech, credit unions and a looming accounting change for loan losses occupy a lot of planning time for leaders of small banks, based on comments provided at a recent breakfast meeting in Washington hosted by the American Bankers Association. While the Financial Accounting Standards Board's decision to delay implementation of the Current Expected Credit Loss standard for most banks was viewed positively, bankers were still up in arms about the required change. CECL is “the wrong action at the wrong time,” said Julie Livingston, the CEO of Marblehead Bank in Massachusetts. "When you look at the impact this will have on credit in a downturn, it baffles me as to why we don’t analyze CECL’s quantitative and qualitative impacts," added Luanne Cundiff, president and CEO of First State Bank in St. Charles, Mo. "Why don’t we just pause and figure out the direction we want to take as an industry?" The other bankers — Jeremy Callais, president of MC Bank & Trust in Morgan City, La.; Chris White, president and CEO of Peoples Bank of East Tennessee in Madisonville; Andy Anderson, president and CEO of Bank of Anguilla in Mississippi; Jennifer Jones, president and CEO of Citizens Building and Loan in Greer, S.C.; and Bryan Bruns, president and CEO of Lake Central Bank in Annandale, Minn. — also discussed the challenges they face. Here is an edited transcript of the conversation.  

Fannie and Freddie will likely exit conservatorship by 2024, Calabria says — Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Mark Calabria said Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are expected to be out of government conservatorship by the time his term ends in 2024. However, he said the U.S. takeover of the government-sponsored enterprises — which began more than a decade ago — will not end until Fannie and Freddie hold sufficient capital. “I certainly hope and expect they will leave before I leave,” Calabria told reporters Wednesday. “If they’re not ready, they’re not ready. And I’m not going to force them out.” Calabria added that he expects initial public offerings from Fannie and Freddie to start within a few years. “If all is going well, [in] 2021, 2022 we will see very large public offerings from these companies,” Calabria said at a Conference of State Bank Supervisors conference. “We will be allowing these companies to go out there and raise the capital they need so they can get out.” That could tee up a conservatorship exit around 2022 or 2023, he said. Again, Calabria reminded that the GSEs “have a large number of supervisory issues they need to fix” first. The FHFA will announce soon whether it intends to reoffer the post-conservatorship capital framework that was developed under his predecessor, Mel Watt. Calabria said he expects the proposal to come out in “a couple of weeks” and that it will be a “prerequisite” for the GSEs to escape government control. Though Fannie and Freddie will not need to meet the capital standard set by the framework before they exit conservatorship, Calabria said, the final rule will give investors a clear idea of what is required. “The objective is, have the capital rule finished, so that we know what the capital target is, and then they’ll raise the capital to meet that,”

 Ocasio-Cortez, Sanders pitch Green New Deal bill for public housing -  Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Sen. Bernie Sanders said Thursday they plan to introduce legislation to give the country’s public housing units an energy-efficiency overhaul, their first attempt at turning the Green New Deal’s broad framework into specific policy. The bill, dubbed the Green New Deal for Public Housing Act, would use seven grant programs to upgrade housing units into carbon-neutral communities with organic grocery stores, on-site child care and community gardens. Residents of public housing would be given preference in hiring to renovate those units. “I think it’s very exemplary of what we try to do with the Green New Deal, where we have a front-line community that has historically gotten the short end of the stick with environmental justice,” Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) said in an interview. The bill would cost between $119 billion and $172 billion over the next decade, according to estimates developed by Data for Progress, a progressive think tank. It would create up to 240,723 jobs a year, the group estimated. That would provide a boost to the economy “showing how the climate crisis is not a jobs versus environment paradigm,” Ocasio-Cortez said. “We need electrical workers. We need construction workers. And it doesn’t have to just be fossil fuel pipelines that create these kinds of jobs. ... We can create millions of jobs in this country by actually rising to the challenge of addressing what this crisis is going to represent." The original Green New Deal framework, which covered multiple topics including the country’s energy grid and its food system, contained just a few lines about housing. Overhauling the economy, according to that resolution, meant “upgrading all existing buildings in the United States and building new buildings to achieve maximum energy efficiency, water efficiency, safety, affordability, comfort, and durability, including through electrification.” Republicans attacked that as unworkably expensive. House Republicans, citing conservative think tanks, pegged the cost at $1.6 trillion or more, and the president suggested that new regulations would hurt homeowners. “They want to take away your car, reduce the value of your home and put millions of Americans out of work,” Trump told supporters at a rally shortly after the resolution was released. Some Democrats joined in the criticism. Rep. Max Rose (N.Y.) said that combating climate change did not require a “massive socialist economic policy platform.” Sen. Dianne Feinstein (Calif.) told climate activists who had gathered in her office that there was “no way to pay” for the Green New Deal.

 Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey - Mortgage applications increased 9.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 8, 2019... The Refinance Index increased 13 percent from the previous week and was 188 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 15 percent higher than the same week one year ago...“Mortgage applications increased to their highest level in over a month, as both purchase and refinance activity rose despite another climb in mortgage rates. Positive data on consumer sentiment, and growing optimism surrounding the U.S. and China trade dispute, were behind last week’s rise in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 4.03 percent,” said Joel Kan, Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Refinance applications jumped 13 percent to the highest level in five weeks, as conventional, FHA, and VA refinances all posted weekly gains. With rates still in the 4 percent range, we continue to expect to see moderate growth in refinance activity in the final weeks of 2020.” Added Kan, “Last week was a solid week for homebuyers. Purchase applications increased 2 percent and were 15 percent higher than a year ago. Low supply and high home prices remain a key characteristic of this fall’s housing market, which is why the largest growth in activity continues to be in loans with higher loan balances.” ... The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($484,350 or less) increased to 4.03 percent from 3.98 percent, with points decreasing to 0.31 from 0.37 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

 Young First-Time Buyers Are Vanishing From US Housing Market - Seeing as most young Americans are saddled with student-loan debt, underemployment and other economic blights, few have any money left for important large purchases like a home. At this point, it's beginning to look like millennials will be remembered as the first rentier generation in the country's history. To wit, according to data from the National Association of Realtors, the median age of first-time home buyers has increased to 33 in 2019, the highest median age since they started collecting the data back in 1981. Meanwhile, the median age for all buyers hit a fresh record high of 47, climbing for the third straight year, and well above the median age of 31 in 1981. Though the median age for first timers only increased by one year, BBG reports that it reflects a variety of factors impacting those who are searching for a home. For one, since the housing-market collapse ten years ago, construction of affordable housing has never recovered. Low housing stock, coupled with low interest rates, has stoked higher prices, especially in more affordable markets from the coasts to the middle of the country. This made circumstances ideal for older Americans with more assets to borrow against and cash on hand. But younger Americans who don't have enough saved for a down payment lost out. "Housing affordability is so difficult today, especially when coupled with rising rents and student loan debt, that they’re finding different ways to enter home ownership," said Jessica Lautz, vice president of demographics and behavioral insights at the Realtors group in Washington.That's not all: the percentage of first-time buyers who are married has declined as more single people buy homes to share with girlfriends, boyfriends or roommates. As the average ages of home buyers increases, average incomes have also risen. The median income of purchasers rose to $93,200 in 2018 as the disappearance of affordable housing pushes low-income buyers out of the market. Factoring in the expansion of economic inequality, young buyers who do manage to buy their own homes typically receive a small gift from their relatives to help cover the down payment first.

 Boomers Prefer to Stay Home - The rise of technologies that help the elderly stay in their homes threatens to upend one of commercial real estate’s biggest bets: Aging baby boomers will leave their residences in droves for senior housing.“People don’t want to go to a place where there’s only a bunch of other old people,” said James Crispino, head of the senior practice at design firm Gensler.The aging-in-place technology trend marks a challenge to the numerous real-estate developers who have been rushing to build senior housing to accommodate the roughly 72 million Americans born between 1946 and 1964, representing about 20% of the U.S. population. In about one decade, boomers will start reaching their mid-80s, the typical move-in age for senior housing.Senior-housing developers added 21,332 new units in 2018—more than double the number that was added in 2014, according to the National Investment Center for Senior Housing & Care, an industry organization. Senior housing is now one of the fastest-growing commercial real-estate sectors, ahead of office, retail, hotels and apartments, according to Green Street Advisors.But developers might have jumped the gun a bit and now some worry there is an emerging glut of senior housing. Senior-housing occupancy fell in the third quarter of 2019 to 88% compared with 90.2% in the fourth quarter of 2014, according to the National Investment Center for Senior Housing & Care.Some companies specializing in senior housing are suffering. Shares of Ventas Inc., a big health-care real-estate investment trust, fell close to 9% one day last month after it said the occupancy rate of its senior-housing communities declined to 84.1% on June 30, compared with 84.5% a year earlier and 88.5% in June 2014. Moreover, the average age that people enter senior housing has been rising, partly because of improving health. It is about 84 to 85 years today, compared with 82 one decade ago, according to Green Street analyst Lukas Hartwich.

NY Fed Q3 Report: "Household Debt Continues to Climb in Third Quarter as Mortgage and Auto Loan Originations Grow" -- From the NY Fed: Household Debt Continues to Climb in Third Quarter as Mortgage and Auto Loan Originations Grow - The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today issued itsQuarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, which shows that total household debt increased by $92 billion (0.7%) to $13.95 trillion in the third quarter of 2019. This marks the 21st consecutive quarter with an increase, and the total is now $1.3 trillion higher, in nominal terms, than the previous peak of $12.68 trillion in the third quarter of 2008. The Report is based on data from the New York Fed’s Consumer Credit Panel, a nationally representative sample of individual- and household-level debt and credit records drawn from anonymized Equifax credit data.… “New credit extensions were strong in the third quarter of 2019, with auto loan originations reaching near-record highs and mortgage originations increasing significantly year-over-year,” said Donghoon Lee, research officer at the New York Fed. “The data suggest that households are taking advantage of a low-interest rate environment to secure credit.” Here are two graphs from the report: The first graph shows aggregate consumer debt increased in Q3.  Household debt previously peaked in 2008, and bottomed in Q2 2013. The second graph shows the percent of debt in delinquency.The overall delinquency rate increased in Q3.  There is much more in the report.

Comments on the Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit (2019 Q3) - Kevin Erdmann - Here are a few updates on the data.  First, mortgage originations by FICO score.  This continues to remain near levels it has been since 2009.  In fact, the average FICO score of borrowers started moving up in the second quarter of 2007, just before home prices started to collapse.  They basically hit the new plateau in the second quarter of 2009.  As I have shown, much of the devastating loss of equity in entry level homes happened after 2008.This is the actual cause of the housing bust (and the financial crisis). The general collapse in home prices came after credit tightening, and the continued additional collapse focused on low tier housing came well after credit tightened, after it settled permanently at the new normal.  To this day, the consensus response to that claim is that it had to happen in order to bring credit standards back to normal.  But, borrower standards were normal.  The typical FICO score of borrowers in 2006 was the same as it had been in 1999.  The squeeze continues.Total mortgages outstanding seems to be settled at about 3-5% annual growth.  And total number of mortgage accounts outstanding fell from about 98 million in 2008 to 81 million in 2013, where it remains.  That would be a bit laggardly in a fully recovered market, but it is very laggardly in a market with a severe shortage of housing and a rent expense problem.  Second chart shows the balance of debt of different types.  Good job America!  We have managed to push all that borrowing out of HELOCs and into credit cards, because the lesson we all learned from the financial crisis was that unsecured debt is preferable to secured debt. I read the terms on my credit cards and I can't help but shout "Stability! Prudence!"  We're so much wiser now.  Kudos everyone.  Third, debt outstanding by age (adjusted to per capita). Some analysis of the crisis sets it up as rich (savers) vs. poor (borrowers).  But, really, the only reason it looks like that is because the crisis was more a matter of old (savers) vs. young (borrowers).  Borrowing was moving up as much for the old as it was for the young, but older borrowers tend to be less leveraged. The older groups have increased their borrowing since the crisis.  That is because they didn't tend to own homes with high leverage during the boom, so they escaped the housing collapse with less damage.  And, that has allowed them to continue borrowing after the boom, because borrowing scales with wealth and income, to a certain extent.  The younger borrowers took a hit in the foreclosure crisis and are now catching up.Unless there is a return to looser lending, though, it seems like there is a limit to how much catch up can happen.

How the Fed Boosts the 1%: Even the Upper Middle Class Loses Share of Household Wealth to the 1%. Bottom Half Gets Screwed - OK, the Federal Reserve just came out with its quarterly data on the wealth of American households. It’s mostly the headline numbers that are being displayed in the media – how much wealth American households have – namely a new record of $107 trillion, thank you Fed, QE, interest-rate repression, and Wealth Effect. But the Fed’s data also shows the wealth distribution.Everyone knows that if you’re in the bottom 50% of households in terms of wealth in this country, you’re essentially screwed. At the bottom 50%, you’re chasing after the American dream, and while a few are able to get out of the bottom 50%, for most, the American dream remains just a dream.But the share that the bottom 50% of households have of the overall wealth, of that record $107 trillion, is minuscule. It’s just 1.9%.That share is down by half from the already miserably low levels of 1999, according to the Fed’s data. So those folks in the bottom half of households are screwed and we knew that.But today, we’ll take a closer look at the top 50% to 99% of households by wealth because even their share of the wealth is now declining, while the share of the 1% is surging.This is the upper middle class and the top of the middle class, and they’re losing out to the 1%. And it’s a big deal in terms of dollars because those households have a lot of wealth, but their share is shrinking as the share of the 1% is gaining.In other words, this economy – and I will point my finger straight at the policies of the Federal Reserve – is set up to shift an ever-larger share of the wealth to the top 1% and away from everyone else, according to the Fed’s own data. And the Fed is bragging about it.We already know what is happening at the bottom half of the households: They’ve always been screwed. They’re just screwed even more today than they were 20 years ago, according to the Fed’s data. As of the new data from the Fed, the bottom half of the households, owns 6.1% of all assets that Americans own. They own just 2.2% of all stocks and stock mutual funds. They own just 2.7% of what the Fed calls “pension entitlements.” The gold-plated executive pension plans are only for the few. They own just 13.5% of household real estate wealth. They own just 0.1% of the “private business wealth.” But in terms of debt, the bottom half of households carry 36% of the total debt, such as mortgages, credit card debt, auto loans, and student loans. So they own 6.1% of the assets and they owe 36% of the debt. And the wealth of the bottom half of households – wealth being assets minus debt – amounts to just $2 trillion, or 1.9% of the total household wealth. These are the people who cannot save anything because their expenses for housing, healthcare, education, transportation, childcare, etc. are eating up their income. And because they cannot save anything, they have no means to invest. The whole system is set up that way. Healthcare expenses cost roughly the same for rich and poor. The problem is that health care expenses are enormous in the US, and become an affordability issue for the bottom half of the households, a huge burden, and lots of people struggle to pay for it or cannot afford it.The healthcare sector is now around 18% of GDP, or nearly $4 trillion a year. This business has become immensely profitable with its monopolistic structure, constant mergers, abuse of the patent system to prolong pharma monopolies, outrageous hospital bills as hospitals have become integrated into corporatized medicine. And so on. For families without employer health coverage, the premiums alone for reasonable insurance plans run over $20,000 a year.

DiMartino Booth: "Remember, This Is A Confidence Game" - Working men and women have been among the most content Americans in recent years. As we’ve written extensively in recent months, CEO confidence has been cascading downwards while that of the lowest income earners has held at some of the highest levels. In fact, September’s consumer sentiment for the lower third of income earners was stronger than all but one month of that go-go decade – September 1988; only the late-1990s internet bubble was better.With that as a backdrop, we couldn’t help but notice the high-frequency Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index sliding by the most in eight years two weeks back. But what’s one week? And then it fell again when reported this past Thursday, reinforcing the 4.3-point two-week decline as the steepest since 2011. But it was the internals that inspired today’s chart. Absolute confidence levels were at one-year lows for those in the Midwest, renters, part-time workers and those with annual incomes under $50,000. More curiously yet, the Bloomberg Personal Finance Index (yellow line) slid to a 10-month low…with stocks at all-time highs.Any worries surrounding the Bloomberg series were dismissed the minute the University of Michigan’s preliminary November sentiment data hit the wires Friday morning. Instead of falling to 95.0, the index rose to 95.7 from 95.5 in October. Moreover, 55% reported improved financial conditions (green line) prompting survey director Richard Curtin to enthuse, “A higher proportion has been recorded in only four other surveys in over a half century. Moreover, the all-time peak was barely higher at 57%.” Some 43% pointed to income gains while 19% cited lower debt and improved financial assets.Could the emergent trend come down to those who do and don’t own stocks? It’s no secret that those who make $50,000 or less are not typically among the 52% of Americans who own stocks. This cohort is more likely living paycheck-to-paycheck and making decisions about how to make ends meet as opposed to how to spend their stock riches.That brings us to the red line above, a pictorial of those who are preoccupied with paying bills via current income or credit. In what may twist the brain, economists like to see this Credit-to-Cash spread stay above the ‘0’ line demarking credit card debt growing faster than cash equivalents. Remember, this is a confidence game. The more confidence you have in your finances, the more willing you are to go out on a limb and take on credit with the requisite certainty you can pay it back in the future. Starting in 2017, lower income’s happy heyday, leveraging-up was indeed taking place. But the spread moved into negative territory in June as households began to de-lever; since then, the spread has fallen deeper into the red.

Retail Sales increased 0.3% in October -- On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.3 percent from September to October (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.1 percent from October 2018. From the Census Bureau report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October 2019, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $526.5 billion, an increase of 0.3 percent from the previous month, and 3.1 percent above October 2018. This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).Retail sales ex-gasoline were up 0.2% in October.The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.  Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 3.9% on a YoY basis. The increase in October was slightly above expectations, however sales in August and September were revised down.

 Onerous Loan Terms Are Crippling Already Broke Subprime Auto Buyers - As the bubble in subprime auto continues to grow bigger - even at the same time the auto industry is mired in recession - terms on new loans for new buyers continue to get more burdensome for already broke consumers.  In fact, many people are piling on debt to their auto loans that far exceeds the car's value, according to the Wall Street Journal. Like homeowners during the financial crisis, this leaves many people with negative equity or "underwater".33% of people who traded in cars to buy new ones in the first nine months of 2019 had negative equity. This compares to 28% five years ago and 19% 10 years ago. The borrowers owed about $5,000, on average, after trading in their cars before taking on new loans. Five years ago that figure stood at an average of about $4,000.And the rise in car prices isn't helping, either. Easy lending standards are helping perpetuate the cycle, with lenders now issuing loans that can last 7 years or longer, as we have documented here on Zero Hedge. Borrowers remain responsible for paying their remaining debt even after they get rid of the vehicle that's tied to it. When buying a new car, they just roll this debt into a new loan. Dealerships, who now make more money on financing than on selling the car, encourage this type of refinancing.  Consumer lawyers say that customers are often forced to trade in their vehicles, either due to changing needs or vehicle problems.  Borrowers that have negative equity at the time of buying a new vehicle are often saddled with longer loan terms, higher interest rates and higher monthly payments. The higher rates and longer amortization schedule means that a smaller share of their payments go to paying off their principal. The result is obvious: many consumers wind up deeper and deeper in the hole everytime they trade in a new vehicle.  Underwater loans are most prevalent with subprime borrowers, mainly due to consumers with lower credit scores lacking the means to pay off the remaining balances on their loans before taking out the next one. In the even of a default, lenders generally take possession of the vehicles and try to resell them. That money is then applied to the unpaid balance, but often isn't enough to cover the total balance.

 The Oh, $hit! Moment For Subprime Auto Loans Arrives; Serious Delinquencies Blow Out - But it’s even worse than it looks. And this time, there is no jobs crisis. This time, it’s the result of greed by subprime lenders.  Serious auto-loan delinquencies – auto loans that are 90 days or more past due – in the third quarter of 2019, after an amazing trajectory, reached a historic high of $62 billion, according to data from the New York Fed today: This $62 billion of seriously delinquent loan balances are what auto lenders, particularly those that specialize in subprime auto loans, such as Santander Consumer USA, Credit Acceptance Corporation, and many smaller specialized lenders are now trying to deal with. If they cannot cure the delinquency, they’re hiring specialized companies that repossess the vehicles to be sold at auction. The difference between the loan balance and the proceeds from the auction, plus the costs involved, are what a lender loses on the deal. The repo business, however, is booming.But delinquencies are a flow: As current delinquencies are hitting the lenders’ balance sheet and income statement, the flow continues and more loans are becoming delinquent. And lenders are still making new loans to risky customers and a portion of those loans will become delinquent too. And now the flow of delinquent loans is increasing – and this isn’t going to stop anytime soon: These loans are out there and new one are being added to them, and a portion of them will be defaulting. Total outstanding balances of auto loans and leases in Q3, according to the New York Fed’s measure (higher and more inclusive than the Federal Reserve Board of Governors’ consumer credit data) rose to $1.32 trillion: Serious delinquencies jumped to 4.71% of these $1.32 trillion in total loans and leases outstanding, the highest since Q4 2011, when the auto industry was emerging from collapse. And on the way up, this 4.71% is just above the level of Q3 2009, months after GM and Chrysler had filed for bankruptcy and a year after Lehman had filed for bankruptcy, when the US was confronting the worst unemployment crisis since the Great Depression, and when people were defaulting on their auto loans because they’d lost their jobs: The current rate of 4.71% is just 56 basis points below the peak of Q4 2010. But these are the good times – and not an employment crisis, when millions of people who lost their jobs cannot make their loan payments. So what is going to happen to auto loan delinquencies when employment experiences a pullback, even a fairly modest one, such as when one million people lose their jobs? That was a rhetorical question. We know what will happen: The serious delinquency rate will set a record for the annals of history.

How To Spend $45,000 On A $27,000 Car - As cars become more expensive, and trade-ins worth less and less, buyers go deeper in debt on new cars.  Please consider taking a $45,000 Loan for a $27,000 Ride. Consumers, salespeople and lenders are treating cars a lot like houses during the last financial crisis: by piling on debt to such a degree that it often exceeds the car’s value. This phenomenon—referred to as negative equity, or being underwater—can leave car owners trapped.Some 33% of people who traded in cars to buy new ones in the first nine months of 2019 had negative equity, compared with 28% five years ago and 19% a decade ago, according to car-shopping site Edmunds.Easy lending standards are perpetuating the cycle, with lenders routinely making car loans with low or no down payments that can last seven years or longer.Borrowers are responsible for paying their remaining debt even after they get rid of the vehicle tied to it. When subsequently buying another car, they can roll this old debt into a new loan. The lender that originates the new loan typically pays off the old lender, and the consumer then owes the balance from both cars to the new lender. The transactions are often encouraged by dealerships, which now make more money on arranging financing than on selling cars.“These aren’t Rolls-Royces,” said David Goldsmith, a lawyer who defends consumers in auto cases. “They’re Ford Escapes.”  Some 5.2% of outstanding securitized subprime auto-loan balances were at least 60 days past due on a rolling 12-month average during the period ending in June, up from 4.8% the year before and 4.9% two years before, according to Fitch Ratings. The Journal cited the case of Mr. John Schricker who kept rolling over loans to the point that it took a $45,000 loan from Ally Financial Inc. to buy a $27,000 Jeep Cherokee.

U.S. Heavy Truck Sales up 3% Year-over-year in October - The following graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the October 2019 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand in May 2009, on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). Then sales increased more than 2 1/2 times, and hit 479 thousand SAAR in June 2015. Heavy truck sales declined again - mostly due to the weakness in the oil sector - and bottomed at 366 thousand SAAR in October 2016.  Following the low in 2016, heavy truck sales increased to a new all time high in September 2019 (revised).  Heavy truck sales were at 536 thousand SAAR in October, down from 575 thousand SAAR in September, but up from 521 thousand SAAR in October 2018.

LA area Port Traffic Down Year-over-year in October - Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.  The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12 month average.  On a rolling 12 month basis, inbound traffic was down 1.4% in October compared to the rolling 12 months ending in September.   Outbound traffic was down 0.7% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.  The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).  Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in February or March depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year (February 5th in 2019).  In general imports have been increasing (although down this year), and exports have mostly moved sideways over the last 8 years - and also have moved down recently.

BLS: CPI increased 0.4% in October, Core CPI increased 0.2% -- From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in Octoberon a seasonally adjusted basis after being unchanged in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.8 percent before seasonal adjustment....The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in October after increasing 0.1 percent in September....The all items index increased 1.8 percent for the 12 months ending October, a slightly larger rise than the 1.7-percent increase for the period ending September. The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.3 percent over the last 12 months. Core inflation was at expectations in October. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.

Consumer Price Index: September Headline at 1.76% - The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the October Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 1.76%, up from 1.71% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 2.31%, down from the previous month's 2.36% and above the Fed's 2% PCE target.  Here is the introduction from the BLS summary, which leads with the seasonally adjusted monthly data:The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis after being unchanged in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.8 percent before seasonal adjustment.The energy index increased 2.7 percent in October after recent monthly declines and accounted for more than half of the increase in the seasonally adjusted all items index; increases in the indexes for medical care, for recreation, and for food also contributed. The gasoline index rose 3.7 percent in October and the other major energy component indexes also increased. The food index rose 0.2 percent, with the indexes for both food at home and food away from home increasing over the month.The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in October after increasing 0.1 percent in September. Along with the indexes for medical care and for recreation, the indexes for used cars and trucks, for shelter, and for personal care all rose in October, though the increase in the shelter index was the smallest since October 2013. The apparel index fell in October, as did the indexes for household furnishings and operations, for new vehicles, and for airline fares.The all items index increased 1.8 percent for the 12 months ending October, a slightly larger rise than the 1.7-percent increase for the period ending September. The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.3 percent over the last 12 months. The food index rose 2.1 percent over the last 12 months, while the energy index declined 4.2 percent over the last year despite increasing in October. [More…]Investing.com was looking for a 0.3% MoM change in seasonally adjusted Headline CPI and a 0.2% in Core CPI. Year-over-year forecasts were 1.7% for Headline and 2.4% for Core.The first chart is an overlay of Headline CPI and Core CPI (the latter excludes Food and Energy) since the turn of the century. The highlighted two pe rcent level is the Federal Reserve's Core inflation target for the CPI's cousin index, the BEA's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.

 Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Above 2% YoY in October, Core PCE below 2% -- The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning: According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (2.3% annualized rate) in October. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% (3.6% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report. Earlier today, the BLS reported that the seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban consumers rose 0.4% (4.4% annualized rate) in October. The CPI less food and energy rose 0.2% (1.9% annualized rate) on a seasonally adjusted basis. Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details for October here. Motor fuel was up 53% annualized. This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 3.0%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 2.4%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 2.3%. Core PCE is for September and increased 1.7% year-over-year.

October Producer Price Index: Core Final Demand Up 0.4% MoM  --Today's release of the October Producer Price Index (PPI) for Final Demand came in at 0.4% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, up from -0.3% last month. It is at 1.1% year-over-year, down from 1.4% last month, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Core Final Demand (less food and energy) came in at 0.3% MoM, up from -0.3% the previous month and is up 1.6% YoY NSA. Investing.com MoM consensus forecasts were for 0.3% headline and 0.2% core. Here is the summary of the news release on Final Demand: The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.4 percent in October, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices fell 0.3 percent in September and edged up 0.1 percent in August. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index advanced 1.1 percent for the 12 months ended in October, the smallest rise since a 1.1-percent increase in the 12 months ended October 2016. In October, the index for final demand services rose 0.3 percent, and prices for final demand goods increased 0.7 percent. The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services inched up 0.1 percent in October after no change in September. For the 12 months ended in October, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 1.5 percent. More…  Since our focus is on longer-term trends, we continue to track the legacy Producer Price Index for Finished Goods, which the BLS also includes in their monthly updates. As this (older) overlay illustrates, the Final Demand and Finished Goods indexes are highly correlated.

Strong healthcare costs help to lift U.S. producer inflation - (Reuters) - U.S. producer prices increased by the most in six months in October, lifted by gains in the costs of goods and services, further bolstering the Federal Reserve’s stance that it will probably not cut interest rates again in the near term. The report from the Labor Department on Thursday showed healthcare costs accelerated last month, with the cost of outpatient care at hospitals posting its largest rise since 2009. The jump in healthcare prices mirrored gains reported in October’s consumer price index report on Wednesday. Still, underlying producer inflation remained muted last month. Stabilizing inflation follows in the wake of fairly upbeat data on the economy, including better-than-expected job growth in October and a pickup in services sector activity, which have eased financial market fears of a recession. There have also been hopeful signs in the 16-year trade war between the United States and China, which has pressured business investment and manufacturing. The U.S. central bank last month cut rates for the third time this year and signaled a pause in the easing cycle that started in July when it reduced borrowing costs for the first time since 2008. Fed Chair Jerome Powell again reiterated that position in testimony before lawmakers on Thursday. “Inflation needs to accelerate noticeably for the Fed to consider raising interest rates, and that doesn’t appear to be in the cards,” The producer price index for final demand rose 0.4% last month, the biggest increase since April, after falling 0.3% in September. In the 12 months through October, the PPI climbed 1.1%, the smallest increase since October 2016, after advancing 1.4% in the 12 months through September. Annual producer inflation retreated as last year’s hefty gain dropped out of the calculation. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PPI would rise 0.3% in October and climb 0.9% on a year-on-year basis. Excluding the volatile food, energy and trade services components, producer prices edged up 0.1% after being unchanged in September. The so-called core PPI increased 1.5% in the 12 months through October after gaining 1.7% in the 12 months through September. Annual core PPI also slowed last month as last October’s increase dropped out of the calculation.

Industrial Production Decreased in October --From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - Industrial production fell 0.8 percent in October after declining 0.3 percent in September. Manufacturing production decreased 0.6 percent in October. Much of this decline was due to a drop of 7.1 percent in the output of motor vehicles and parts that resulted from a strike at a major manufacturer of motor vehicles. The decreases for total industrial production, manufacturing, and motor vehicles and parts were their largest since May 2018, April 2019, and January 2019, respectively. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, the index for total industrial production moved down 0.5 percent, and the index for manufacturing edged down 0.1 percent. Mining production decreased 0.7 percent, while utilities output fell 2.6 percent.At 108.7 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 1.1 percent lower  in October than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.8 percentage point in October to 76.7 percent, a rate that is 3.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2018) average.This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up 10.0 percentage points from the record low set in June 2009 (the series starts in 1967). Capacity utilization at 76.7% is 3.1% below the average from 1972 to 2017 and below the pre-recession level of 80.8% in December 2007. Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change. Industrial ProductionThe second graph shows industrial production since 1967. Industrial production decreased in October to 108.7. This is 25% above the recession low, and 3.2% above the pre-recession peak. The change in industrial production and increase in capacity utilization were below consensus expectations.

Industrial production tanks on GM strikes; Real retail sales decline slightly - First, let me briefly address industrial production, which fell -0.8% in October. On its face this is an awful number. But take it with a big grain of salt: mainly it reflected the GM  strike. Here’s the applicable note from the Federal Reserve:Manufacturing output fell 0.6 percent in October to a level 1.5 percent lower than its year-earlier reading. In October, the strike in the motor vehicle industry contributed to a drop of 1.2 percent for durables. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, the output of durables moved down 0.2 percent.... The production of nondurables was unchanged.... The output of other manufacturing (publishing and logging) fell 1.0 percent.Even without the GM strike, the number would have been negative. But not nearly as negative as it was. For the record, both utilities and mining (including oil production) were also down substantially, but these tend to be volatile.  So here is the relevant graph, which certainly does show a downturn in the past year. Just take the last downward blip with a grain of salt:   Now let’s turn to retail sales. Retail sales are one of my favorite indicators, because in real terms they can tell us so much about the present, near term forecast, and longer term forecast for the economy. This morning retail sales for October were reported up +0.3%, taking back September’s -0.3% decline. Since consumer inflation increased by + 0.4%, however, real retail sales declined -0.1% for the month, following another -0.1% decline in September. As a result, YoY real retail sales took a spill but are still up +1.3%. Here is what the absolute trend looks like. The last two months’ decline remains well within the range of noise:  Further, although the relationship is noisy, real retail sales measured YoY tend to lead employment (red in the graphs below) by about 4 to 8 months. Here is that relationship over the past 20 years:  The recent peak in YoY employment gains followed the recent peak in real retail sales by roughly 6 months, and the downturn in real retail sales at the end of last year has already shown up in weakness in the employment numbers this year. Similarly even with the October decline I expect the recent improvement in retail sales YoY to show up in at least stabilization in the  employment numbers by about next spring.  Finally, real retail sales per capita is a long leading indicator. In particular it has turned down a full year before either of the past two recessions:

NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity was little changed in New York State" -- From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Business activity was little changed in New York State, according to firms responding to the November 2019 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index came in at 2.9, roughly in line with its level in October....The index for number of employees edged up to 10.4, indicating that employment expanded for the third consecutive month. The average workweek index came in at 2.3, indicating a slightly longer workweek.…Indexes assessing the six-month outlook suggested that optimism about future conditions remained subdued. This was slightly lower than the consensus forecast.

Steel layoffs in US mount due to falling production and trade war -Growing layoffs at major steel producers in the United States over the past three months point to a further slowdown in manufacturing and the impact of Trump’s trade war measures. All the major steel producers in the US have reduced production this year and this is now translating into a series of job cuts. United States Steel (USS), the second largest steel producer in the US and once the symbol of US domination of industrial production, is facing a major crisis. The company has announced that it will idle its tin mill in East Chicago, Indiana. Earlier this year, USS shut down one of its blast furnaces at its Great Lakes Works near Detroit. Fifty workers were laid off at the time and another 200 lost their jobs at the end of September. US Steel is not the only steelmaker slashing jobs. AK Steel has announced the closing of its mill in Ashland, Kentucky by the end of the year throwing all 260 employees out of work. Earlier this year, TMK Ipsco Tubulars Inc. announced it was laying off 159 workers at its tubular plant in Wilder, Kentucky due to dropping demand from the oil and gas industry. Only 20 workers will remain, mainly for maintenance at the plant. NLMK steel in Farrell, Pennsylvania laid off 100 workers over the summer citing the higher costs of steel imports. NLMK imported steel slabs from Russia and rolled them into finished products. The layoffs took place in the hot mill. About 300 workers are still working in other sections of the mill. Last month, United Structures of America closed its plant in Portland, Tennessee, putting 45 employees out of work. Barber Steel Foundry in Rothbury, Michigan is closing this month, laying off all 61 employees. Bayou Steel in Louisiana filed for bankruptcy October 1 and announced it was closing, putting 367 people out of work. Another 72 workers at its Harriman, Tennessee operations were also laid off. Bayou executives said they only had $50,000 in cash and were unable to secure credit. Charlotte, North Carolina-based Nucor Corporation, the largest steelmaker in the United States, and Luxembourg-based ArcelorMittal, the largest steelmaker in the world, are under pressure to cut costs and jobs. ArcelorMittal’s stock has fallen nearly 60 percent, from a high of $36 in January 2018 to just $15.00. Like US Steel, ArcelorMittal relies primarily on blast furnaces to produce steel from iron ore.

Copper Workers Strike to Stop Concessionary Trend  -On October 13, 2,000 workers walked out at the company’s five copper mines and smelters, four in Arizona and one in Texas. After the company spent months stonewalling at the bargaining table—and recently even refused to meet—the seven unions at ASARCO voted to authorize a ULP strike. The company is demanding more concessions after years of deep cuts. Under its proposals most workers would see no wage increases while their individual health insurance premiums more than double and their pensions freeze.In 2017, workers had just accepted another concessionary contract after a seven-year wage freeze, watching the company raise their health care premiums, two-tier their pensions, and continue to withhold the bonuses that they had refused to pay since 2006. That contract, which expired last November, closed new-hires out of the pension system and set the stage for the company’s current demand to freeze pensions across the board.After the contract, “lots of guys were wondering: What does the union do for me? Why am I paying dues?” said Eduardo Placencio, recording secretary for Steelworkers (USW) Local 937 at Mission Mine, 18 miles south of Tucson. Placencio and his coworkers handle flotation in the concentrator, where finely ground copper ore is “floated” in a chemical solution that concentrates it.Local 937 decided to hit the ground running after the 2017 contract, using the loss as an opportunity to begin organizing around a different strategy for the next round of negotiations.In 2017, the unions had pursued a legal strategy. They had hoped that a series of ULP charges would increase their leverage by forcing the company into arbitration where their chances were better than at the deadlocked bargaining table. But the rulings didn’t pan out under Trump’s pro-employer Labor Board. At Mission Mine, Local 937 revamped its meetings to try to introduce a stronger movement culture, drawing on the history of miners’ militancy in the West all the way back to Joe Hill and the Industrial Workers of the World (IWW). They experimented with different meeting times and locations to draw in members who hadn’t participated before. In addition to regular union business they added segments on labor history, with a particular focus on militancy and strikes, showing movies like Bisbee ‘17 andMatewan. They trained new stewards and used their structure to prepare for a walkout.

Dean Foods, America’s biggest milk producer, files for bankruptcy - Dean Foods on Tuesday announced that it has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. The Dallas-based milk processor said that it plans to use the Chapter 11 proceedings to keep running the business, and address debt and unfunded debt obligations as it seeks to sell the company. Dean Foods has secured commitments for $850 million in debtor-in-possession financing, a type of funding for companies in financial distress. Customers are expected to receive their dairy products without any interruptions. Dean Foods also said it is engaged in “advanced discussions” with the Dairy Farmers of America about selling “substantially” all of its assets. Even if both parties agree to the sale, the transaction would be subject to receiving higher or better offers while the company is in bankruptcy.

 Wage Theft Is the Multibillion-Dollar Crime Almost No One Is Prosecuting  -Since assuming office in Philadelphia last year, Larry Krasner has earned a national reputation as a radical new kind of district attorney. He's pushed the sort of criminal justice reform that typically comes from activists or public defenders, like ordering prosecutors to stop pursuing criminal charges for marijuana possession, or directing them to no longer seek cash bail for low-level offenses. Last October, he took another bold step: He created a task force focused on crimes against workers.One of the primary crimes this task force will focus on is wage theft. At the absolute simplest, wage theft is as it sounds—a worker doesn't get fully paid for the work they've done. Often employers pull this off by paying for less than the number of hours worked, not paying for legally required overtime, or stealing tips. That's money that workers are legally entitled to and that their bosses find some way of pocketing.Wage theft isn't one of the crimes most prosecutors and politicians refer to when they talk about getting "tough on crime," but it represents a massive chunk of all theft committed in the U.S. A 2017 study by the Economic Policy Institute (EPI) found that in the ten most populous states, an estimated 2.4 million people lose a combined $8 billion in income every year to theft by their employers. That's nearly half as much as all other property theft combined last year—$16.4 billion according to the FBI. And again, EPI's findings are only for ten states. According to the institute, the typical worker victimized by minimum-wage violations is underpaid by $64 per week, totaling $3,300 per year. If its figures are representative of a national phenomenon, then EPI estimates that the yearly total for American wage theft is closer to $15 billion. There are some overt ways that employers rob their workers, like taking money directly out of their paychecks, but wage theft can take more complicated and subtler forms. Deliberately mislabeling workers as independent contractors in order to avoid paying higher wages for the same responsibilities as regular employees, for example, or asking employees to work while off the clock, or denying meal breaks, all technically fall under wage theft. Amazon, for instance, is currently being sued for not paying its employees for the amount of time they spend going through lengthy security checkpoints when they arrive at and leave work. It's hard to mount civil lawsuits against employers who violate minimum-wage laws, because typically the victims of these crimes don't have the time or resources to fight for their lost wages. And last year's Supreme Court decision in Epic Systems Corp. v. Lewis, which ruled that it's legal to require employees to sign away their rights to join class-action lawsuits, makes going after employers for wage theft much more difficult.

Armored ICE Vehicle Sparks Panic In Queens During Firearms Bust --An ICE operation in Queens that involved the use of a military grade armored vehicle has sparked concern and confusion from local residents and elected officials.  As first reported by NY1 Noticias, the armored personnel carrier was spotted Wednesday morning on Forest Avenue near Norman Street in Ridgewood. Agents wearing ICE jackets were seen standing around the street, as a gunner stood watch in the middle of the vehicle.  An ICE spokesperson confirmed that one individual was taken into custody on an unspecified criminal arrest warrant. A spokesperson for Mayor Bill de Blasio said the agents were there as part of a federal investigation into a firearms suspect, who was allegedly found to have been hoarding "about 50 guns, including a machine gun, gun parts and ammunition." The operation was carried out by Homeland Security Investigations (HSI), which is part of ICE, but distinct from the Enforcement and Removal Operations arm responsible for deporting immigrants. Still, neighbors said that a lack of information, combined with growing fears of ICE agents descending into communities, raised alarms on Wednesday. "People feel terrorized," said Raquel Namuche, an organizer with the Ridgewood Tenants Union. "This happened right across from a youth program for children as young as four-years-old and there seemed to be no safety protocols in place. For people to leave their homes early in the morning and see a tank out on the street is just wild." Known as a BearCat, the tactical vehicle is commonly used by the military and in some law enforcement capacities. The federal agency put out a solicitation last year to purchase an additional 16 BearCats. Councilmember Antonio Reynoso also expressed frustration about the incident, pointing to constant fear in immigrant neighborhoods about the potential for raids and deportations. "I do not understand what necessitated ICE’s use of a tank other than the simple desire to instill fear amongst our community members,"

Exposing East Tennessee's dark secret: Families sell children for sex - An alarming epidemic plagues East Tennessee, but few fully understand the gravity or magnitude of the situation. In the simplest of terms, children, some as young as three years old, have been sold for sex by their own parents and family members. Adults, many with children of their own, have also fallen victim to human trafficking. Experts identify the most vulnerable human trafficking victims as children in foster care or group homes, children or adults with a history of physical or sexual abuse, runaways, people with special needs, and anyone with a weakness or vulnerability that can be exposed or exploited. "Traffickers promise a high-paying job, a loving relationship, or new and exciting opportunities and then use physical and psychological violence to control them," said the National Human Trafficking Hotline.   As one of the region's darkest secrets bubbles just below the surface, the Community Coalition Against Human Trafficking serves all areas of upper East Tennessee, and offers a variety of services to help communities identify and respond to human trafficking.

 Minnesota school threw out hot meals of students with over $15 lunch debt, then apologized A Minnesota school district is apologizing after video surfaced showing high school cafeteria workers throwing away the hot meals of students with outstanding lunch debt. Richfield High School came under fire Monday after around 40 students had their hot lunches taken off their trays, thrown out, and replaced with a cold lunch when cafeteria staff saw they had lunch debt of more than $15, NBC Minneapolis affiliate KARE 11 reports. The incident was recorded on social media, and the school district in Richfield, about seven miles south of Minneapolis, quickly apologized. "We deeply regret our actions today and the embarrassment that it caused several of our students," the district wrote in a statement Monday. "We have met with some of the students involved and apologized to them." Richfield Superintendent Steven Unowsky told KARE the actions of cafeteria staff were "inappropriate." “There are multiple failures we had in this situation and our job is to fix it. First and foremost [in] the way we treated our kids. We should never leave kids with the feeling they had from the experience,” Unowsky said. The school said students should not be told publicly in front of their peers that they owe money, and instead should be informed about any lunch debt from a social worker or a guidance counselor. The school also said a hot lunch should never be taken off a student's tray, even if they have lunch debt.

Ohio House passes bill allowing student answers to be scientifically wrong due to religion  - Ohio lawmakers are weighing in on how public schools can teach things like evolution. The Ohio House on Wednesday passed the "Student Religious Liberties Act." Under the law, students can't be penalized if their work is scientifically wrong as long as the reasoning is because of their religious beliefs.Instead, students are graded on substance and relevance. Every Republican in the House supported the bill. It now moves to the Republican-controlled Senate.  see House Bill 164 by Local12WKRC on Scribd

On 16th birthday, California student opens fire at his high school, killing two - (Reuters) - A Southern California high school student killed two classmates and wounded three others on Thursday, pulling a .45 caliber semiautomatic handgun from his backpack and emptying it in a matter of seconds as the school day began. He saved the last bullet for himself. It was his 16th birthday. The teenaged gunman, whose name was not provided by police, survived the self-inflicted gunshot wound to the head but was in grave condition in hospital, law enforcement officials said. Captain Kent Wegener of the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department told reporters the entire incident, captured on videotape, took 16 seconds as the young man stood in one spot and fired on one student after another. “From right where he was standing, he doesn’t chase anybody, he fires from where he is until he shoots himself,” Wegener said.Investigators said they did not yet know what led the student to open fire at the school 40 miles (65 km) north of Los Angeles. Police said the accused shooter had acted alone. Investigators descended on his family home, blocking off the street. They found no further danger there. A next-door neighbor, registered nurse Jared Axen, said the suspect had seemed introverted, quiet and sad, possibly despondent over the loss of his father from a heart attack in December 2017. Axen, 33, said it was the boy who found his father deceased, not long after the older man had regained his sobriety and gotten his life “back on track” after years of struggling with alcohol abuse.

 As contract vote approaches, DSA defends sellout by Chicago Teachers Union - With 25,000 teachers voting on a new five-year agreement this Thursday and Friday, the Chicago Teachers Union (CTU) and its allies in the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) are doing everything they can to silence opposition to the contract. Rank-and-file teachers have told the WSWS Teacher Newsletter that the CTU is removing posts calling for a “No” vote from its CTU Members Only Group Facebook page. “Those who have spoken out are being censored, blocked, or had their posts deleted,” one veteran teacher told the Teacher Newsletter. “Vote no posts go up and get taken down. A conversation is not being allowed.” Another teacher said, “They suppress members’ comments on their websites. Part of our dues go to pay for this site and the Members Only site. My comments have been removed, and I am being censored just for expressing my view,” she said. The CTU shut down the 11-day strike on November 1 and ordered teachers to return to work before they voted on the tentative agreement. There is widespread opposition to the deal among teachers, parents and students because it meets none of educators’ central demands. Instead it phases in inadequate additional staff in some schools over the five-year contract, maintains bloated class sizes, provides no additional prep time and increases out-of-pocket healthcare costs. This is entirely in line with Democratic Mayor Lori Lightfoot’s austerity budget. After the release of the deal it was revealed that the meager cost increases will largely be paid for through regressive property taxes. On Monday, the Chicago Tribune editorial board went further, demanding that the contract be financed by shutting down more schools and selling the properties to real estate developers. A five-year moratorium on school closings ended in late 2018. In fact, the Fitch credit ratings agency noted CPS’ ability to enact mass layoffs and close schools “is important to our view of CPS' credit quality given its already limited expenditure flexibility and its reliance on uncertain state funding increases in future years to pay for the increased contract costs.” The agencies were otherwise pleased with the deal, maintaining positive or stable outlooks on the district. As Bond Buyer noted, “near term pressures are less of a concern as the new costs are minimal.”

School closures threatened as Chicago teachers vote on widely-hated tentative agreement - More than 25,000 Chicago Public Schools (CPS) teachers began to vote Thursday and Friday on a five-year tentative agreement that is widely opposed by educators. Working with the Democratic Party and Mayor Lori Lightfoot, the Chicago Teachers Union (CTU) suspended the 11-day strike in late October and brought back an agreement that will accelerate the attack on teachers, students and public education. On Thursday, CTU President Jesse Sharkey wrote a letter to teachers threatening that school closures are expected from the Lightfoot administration, on top of the concessions agreed to by the union in the new agreement. “The writing’s on the wall,” Sharkey warns in the letter. “We expect the mayor to propose her own round of school closings, hitting neighborhood high schools in Black and Brown communities especially hard. The ink wasn’t even dry on our agreement before the Chicago Tribune began demanding this, claiming that school closings are needed to promote equity and protect students.” “He’s been using fear as a tactic,” said Esperanza, a veteran teacher who is opposed to the CTU agreement, in response to Sharkey. Sharkey’s letter on possible school closures presented the agreement that the CTU is attempting to push through as a great victory. In fact, it merely demonstrates that the CTU’s shutdown of the strike is paving the way for another massive attack on public education. The deal does nothing to address the fundamental needs of teachers who face stagnant salaries, and students and educators who have to contend with overcrowded and dilapidated classrooms. While the CTU and Sharkey have hailed the agreement on class sizes and staffing as “historic” gains, the terms are entirely in line with the demands of Lightfoot. The CTU claims that the new tentative agreement will maintain caps on class sizes and increase staffing through the formation of at least a dozen joint CTU-CPS committees. Far from alleviating overcrowding in classrooms, the joint committees give the CTU a seat at the table to oversee the horrendous conditions teachers face and maintain the privileges of its union bureaucracy.

Little Rock, Arkansas teachers stage one-day strike -  With overwhelming community support, Little Rock, Arkansas, teachers on Thursday walked out in their first strike in 32 years. Teachers, parents, and students picketed 41 campuses and rallied at the State Capitol. Hundreds marched in front of Central High School, the site of the 1957 desegregation struggle by the “Little Rock Nine,” a critical event in the fight for equality and public education for all.   “I’m here because I’m indignant,” Jennifer Lusk, a German teacher at Central, told the media. “I’m indignant about what they’re doing to public education in this city, and I’m not going down without a fight.” Amber Allison, a second-grade teacher, said she was striking because things have gone downhill since the state takeover in 2015. “They have made our jobs harder with less support,” she said.  “My mom is a teacher, so I have seen first hand how hard it can be for teachers that can’t teach the way they want,” said Emily Jefferson, a student at Central High School, speaking to the Arkansas Democrat Gazette. “As students, we are the ones who are being affected. We are the future teachers and leaders. We had to be out here.” Over the past few weeks, mass community meetings, rallies and a vigil of 2,000 residents have backed the teachers. Thousands of the city’s high school students held a “sickout” October 29–30 to show their support. It had been widely expected that the 1,800-member Little Rock Education Association (LREA) would strike after the October 31 contract expiration, particularly following the state’s provocative suspension of their bargaining rights. However, the union delayed and last week called a “work-to-rule” and walk-in. Finally, it opted to call a strike, limited to a one-day protest walkout. LREA President Teresa Knapp Gordon has since held open the possibility that the action could continue if the school board fails to return the district to full local control.

 Harvard Sex Week's generous corporate partners -- Harvard Sex Week's generous corporate partners donate free safer sex supplies and sex toys every year for our events. These companies are committed to the sexual education and wellness of Harvard students, and we couldn't be more grateful. Check out the full list of our corporate partners below!

Feeling suicidal, she turned to her college. But it had just cut campus mental health services.   - Stress was mounting for Jennifer Beachtel. It was September, and she was about a month into her second semester at HACC, Central Pennsylvania’s Community College. She was taking college courses for the first time and juggling care for three children, two of whom have autism. Life was starting to feel out of control, Ms. Beachtel, 33, said in a recent interview. She had dealt with mental illness since she was a kid and she knew she needed to talk to someone. Late that month, she said, she walked into the counseling office on the college’s Gettysburg campus and asked for help. “I’m really overwhelmed, I’m feeling suicidal and just really need to talk to somebody,” she recalled telling the woman at the front desk. Ms. Beachtel didn’t know it at the time, but just a few weeks earlier, HACC — Pennsylvania’s largest community college — had instructed counselors to stop providing mental health services. The change, which was never publicly announced to students, was first reported by Spotlight PA. Ms. Beachtel was told no one was available and she would have to find a therapist in the community. “I was devastated,” she said. “I should have been able to speak to somebody, at least anybody who could have directed me so I didn’t have to go home and feel like that.” More than a month after the college eliminated its mental health counseling across its five campuses, there is still confusion about how students can access care. And a Spotlight PA review of the list of resources being given to students found outdated phone numbers and providers with long wait times.

The 5 college majors American students most regret picking - As tuition costs soar, more students and their families are asking themselves if college is still worth it.  Some experts say the value of a bachelor’s degree is fading. Starting salaries for new college graduates have grown less than 1% over the past two years, remaining at around $50,000. Worse yet: A decade after leaving school, more than 1 in 5 graduates are working in a job that doesn’t even require a degree.  However, obtaining a diploma is almost always worthwhile, according to “The College Payoff,” a report from the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce.  Bachelor’s degree holders generally earn 84% more than those with just a high school diploma, the report said — and the higher the level of educational attainment, the larger the payoff. When broken down by areas of study, however, the difference is striking. Students who pursue a major specifically in science, technology, engineering and math — collectively known as STEM disciplines — are projected to earn the most overall. In addition to STEM, health and business majors are among the highest paying, leading to average annual wages that are higher at the entry level and significantly greater over the course of a career compared to liberal arts and humanities majors, the Georgetown Center found. All in, the top-paying college majors earn $3.4 million more than the lowest-paying majors over a lifetime. Of course, income isn’t the only consideration. After adding in satisfaction, stress level and job opportunities, among other factors, job search site ZipRecruiter found that the top five majors college students most regretted taking spanned the arts and sciences.  English, communications, biological sciences and law all made the list, according to ZipRecruiter’s survey of more than 5,000 college graduates who were looking for a job.  “This generation, more than any other generation that came before it, is looking for work with purpose and meaning,” said ZipRecruiter CEO Ian Siegel.  “They are more aware of what their peers are doing” he added, and “it creates a little bit of the ‘keeping up with the Joneses’ effect.” On the upside, students who focused on computer science, business, engineering and health administration felt very good about their choices, ZipRecruiter found.

 Record low numbers participate in 24-hour stunt strike at University of California schools and health system - Although the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) called on 25,000 workers across the University of California (UC) higher education and health care system to participate in a one-day strike Wednesday, a record low number of workers responded. Tired of being taken out on fruitless actions, the number of workers participating in the sixth 24-hour strike this year hit an all-time low. The participation in these stunts has been in sharp decline with nearly 1,000 picketers at each of the 10 campuses participating on March 20, 200-300 per campus on April 10 and only 70-100 at each campus on May 16. On Wednesday, the numbers fell to 50 workers at each campus, or a total of 2 percent of the 25,000-strong workforce. The dismal turnout did not reflect a lack of desire to fight. On the contrary, workers are willing to carry out a serious fight to demand wages that keep up with rising living costs and an end to the outsourcing of jobs and temporary labor. But workers have no confidence that AFSCME, which has long colluded with the California Democratic Party establishment’s austerity regime, will do anything to seriously fight for their interests. Workers at UC San Diego and UC Berkeley campuses told WSWS reporters that they resented being forced to work without a contract and were tired of the limited and unpaid one-day strikes. “The union representative was telling us we’re so lucky to work here because we get better pay thanks to them,” a primary care worker at UCSD told the WSWS. “But actually, things only improved because we struck and fought, not AFSMCE. I found that insulting. This contract has not been out since 2017. It’s ridiculous. AFSCME, you don’t value us.” He continued, “How they schedule strikes is not effective, either. Even if they did two days, it would’ve been more effective. You would’ve had more people, and after the holiday weekend it would’ve really impacted management. There’s no power when it’s broken in pieces. I haven’t seen any strike pay. At least pay for day care because we’re taking a big hit. It’s a whole day’s wages. If we’re paying dues, then give them back. A union official told us that our union dues go toward discounts for plane tickets and stuff. I’m like, ‘UC does that!’” A medical assistant at UC San Diego told the WSWS, “Outsourcing can affect us personally. Management is bringing in scabs, paying for their hotels and flights. They’re willing to pay for more facilities but not more staff. I haven’t seen a cost-of-living increase for three years. I have a family to feed.” Commenting on the lower and lower participation for the one-day walkouts, she said, “The last time they had a strike no one came.”

Millennials’ Health Deteriorating, Projected Mortality Rates Higher Than GenX; “Deaths of Despair” a Major Culprit – Yves Smith - You thought deaths of despair were an affliction of deplorables. Silly you. In case you weren’t paying attention, young people are under a lot of stress too and many don’t have reason to think their state will get much better. Short job tenures and the rise of McJobs mean not just uncertain incomes, which are bad enough, but weak social attachments due to shallow relationships with co-workers and often too little discretionary income to mix regularly with contemporaries. Student debt is another major source of anxiety. We’ve also written, virtually from the inception of this site, that high levels of income inequality are bad for health, even for the wealthy. And the reality of the accelerating effects of global warming weighs more on the young than the old, who can hope to die before serious dislocations kick in. The Jackpot is indeed coming.  So the results of a Blue Cross Blue Shield study which we have embedded at the end of this post,that Millennials are on track to have worse health outcomes than their GenX predecessors, should not come as any surprise, save perhaps for the degree of decay. However, the document perversely tries to make a case that the health of Millennials generally is deteriorating, when the data clearly shows that the rise in mortality is due to accidents, meaning significantly overdoses, and suicides. And the other information they muster on the health of Millennials generally does not provide much support for the notion of worsening physical health, but of worsening mental health. My assumption is BCBS spent a lot of effort mining health data, and the authors were tasked to write about that because that’s where the work went, as opposed to where the findings were. In fairness, the study also estimated what higher health care costs would mean to Millennials’ budgets. The overview:

• 1. Millennials are seeing their health decline faster than the previous generation as they age. This extends to both physical health conditions, such as hypertension and high cholesterol, and behavioral health conditions, such as major depression and hyperactivity. Without intervention, millennials could feasibly see mortality rates climb more than 40% compared to Gen-Xers at the same age.
• 2. These accelerated declines will result in greater demand for treatment and higher healthcare costs in the years ahead. Under the most adverse scenario, millennial treatment costs are projected to be as much as 33% higher than Gen-Xers experienced at a comparable age.
• 3. Poorer health among millennials will keep them from contributing as much to the economy as they otherwise would, manifesting itself through higher unemployment and slower income growth. Under the most adverse set of projections, lower levels of health alone could cost millennials more than $4,500 per year in real per- capita incomes compared to similarly aged Gen-Xers. Such impacts would be most likely concentrated in areas already struggling economically, potentially exacerbating instances of income inequality and contributing to a vicious cycle of even greater prevalence of behavioral health conditions.

‘I live on the street now’: how Americans fall into medical bankruptcy - It’s been over a dozen years since Susanne LeClair of West Palm Beach, Florida was first diagnosed with cancer and she’s been fighting ever since. Now she, like many other Americans facing life-threatening illness, is bankrupt despite having health insurance. Before her first cancer-related surgery, LeClair was told by the hospital they accepted her employer-based health insurance. “I paid my $300 copay. After the surgery, I started receiving all these invoices and came to find out the only thing covered was my bed because the hospital was out of network,” said LeClair. “My bills were hundreds of thousands of dollars, so I had no choice but to file bankruptcy.” LeClair is on the verge of having to file for bankruptcy a second time due to the mounting medical debt she has accrued for additional cancer-related surgeries, regular appointments, medications and supplies related to her recovery, despite having health insurance and paying as much as she can out of pocket for copays, deductibles and premiums to maintain insurance. “My medical bills are at $52,000. I’ve done everything from credit cards to consolidation loans, I just keep simply paying one credit card with another interest-free one until I can pay the next one,” LeClair added. “It’s the side of cancer most people don’t understand or know about and it’s never-ending. It just keeps adding up and adding up and before you know it you’re back in debt that you can’t believe again.” Bankruptcy can also make it difficult to find employment given that many employers will disqualify a candidate with a bankruptcy filing found from a background check. According to a study published in February 2019, about 530,000 bankruptcies filed annually are because of debt accrued due to a medical illness. The study found that even the Obama administration’s landmark Affordable Care Act (known as Obamacare) has failed to change the proportion of bankruptcies caused by medical debts, with poor health insurance cited as one of the main culprits.

 Code Brown- California Poo Situation Upgraded To 'Hot Diarrhea' Attacks; Urinating In Public OK -  According to NBC Los Angeles' 'Streets of Shame' series, a homeless man randomly pulled a woman out of her car and hit her with a hot diarrhea attack.A night near the Hollywood Walk of Fame would change a woman's life, as she was getting into her car and a homeless man sprinted across Hollywood Boulevard toward her. Heidi Van Tassel was parked in Hollyw ood after having a pleasant evening out with friends at an authentic Thai restaurant. Suddenly a man randomly pulled her out of the car, dragged her out to the middle of the street, and dumped a bucket of feces on her head, Van Tassel said and public records confirm."It was diarrhea. Hot liquid. I was soaked, and it was coming off my eyelashes and into my eyes," she told NBC. "Paramedics who came to treat me said there was so much of it on me, that it looked like the man was saving it up for a month.""It was all inside my car because it was so much. He just kept pouring it and splattering it all over me."While Heidi is now getting tested for diseases every three months and has PTSD, her attacker was arrested, charged with battery, and found mentally incompetent to stand trial. He is now back on the street.Meanwhile to the North, San Francisco's incoming district attorney Chesa Boudin said upon his Saturday night election victory: "We will not prosecute cases involving quality-of-life crimes. Crimes such as public camping, offering or soliciting sex, public urination, blocking a sidewalk, etc., should not and will not be prosecuted.""Many of these crimes are still being prosecuted, we have a long way to go to decriminalize poverty and homelessness," he added, according to the Daily Caller.

Analysis of official deceased organ donation data casts doubt on the credibility of China’s organ transplant reform - Since 2010 the People’s Republic of China has been engaged in an effort to reform its system of organ transplantation by developing a voluntary organ donation and allocation infrastructure. This has required a shift in the procurement of organs sourced from China’s prison and security apparatus to hospital-based voluntary donors declared dead by neurological and/or circulatory criteria. Chinese officials announced that from January 1, 2015, hospital-based donors would be the sole source of organs. This paper examines the availability, transparency, integrity, and consistency of China’s official transplant data. Forensic statistical methods were used to examine key deceased organ donation datasets from 2010 to 2018. Two central-level datasets — published by the China Organ Transplant Response System (COTRS) and the Red Cross Society of China — are tested for evidence of manipulation, including conformance to simple mathematical formulae, arbitrary internal ratios, the presence of anomalous data artefacts, and cross-consistency. Provincial-level data in five regions are tested for coherence, consistency, and plausibility, and individual hospital data in those provinces are examined for consistency with provincial-level data. A variety of evidence points to what the authors believe can only be plausibly explained by systematic falsification and manipulation of official organ transplant datasets in China. Some apparently nonvoluntary donors also appear to be misclassified as voluntary. This takes place alongside genuine voluntary organ transplant activity, which is often incentivized by large cash payments. These findings are relevant for international interactions with China’s organ transplantation system.

 Google Collecting Medical Data on Millions Without Informing Patients or Doctors -  Yves Smith -The Wall Street Journal has broken an important story on Google’s foray into the medical arena. Without notifying patients or doctors, much the less obtaining their consent, the search giant has obtained the medical records of “tens of millions of people” in 21 states, all patients of Ascension, a St. Louis-based chain of 2600 hospitals. Moreover, you can see that the effort is aggressive, with the aim of generating patient medical histories, linking individuals to family members, and making staffing and treatment suggestions….as well as identifying opportunities for upcoding and other ways to milk patients.From the article: Google began Project Nightingale in secret last year with St. Louis-based Ascension, a Catholic chain of 2,600 hospitals, doctors’ offices and other facilities, with the data sharing accelerating since summer, according to internal documents.The data involved in the initiative encompasses lab results, doctor diagnoses and hospitalization records, among other categories, and amounts to a complete health history, including patient names and dates of birth.Neither patients nor doctors have been notified. At least 150 Google employees already have access to much of the data on tens of millions of patients, according to a person familiar with the matter and the documents.And I wasn’t kidding about Ascension wanting to wring more out of patients: Ascension, the second-largest health system in the U.S., aims in part to improve patient care. It also hopes to mine data to identify additional tests that could be necessary or other ways in which the system could generate more revenue from patients, documents show.Yours truly regularly nixes doctor-suggested tests. It’s a no-brainer that it will become harder to just say no if you are in an HMO or PPO and Dr. Google disagrees with you.Note that the project was secret until the Journal st arted digging. Ascension put out a joint press release with Google on Monday, which may have forced the Journal to publish the story before it had nailed down some final loose ends.

Google Secretly Harvested 'Detailed' Healthcare Data From Millions Of Americans - Google has been secretly collecting and analyzing detailed personal health information on millions of Americans spanning 21 states, according to the Wall Street Journal. The effort, code-named "Project Nightingale," appears to be the largest successful effort by tech giants - including Amazon, Apple and Microsoft - to gain access to personal health data in order to make inroads in the healthcare industry.Google began the effort last year with St. Louis-based Ascension, the second-largest health system in the U.S., with the data sharing accelerating over this summer and fall, the documents show. The data involved in Project Nightingale pertains to lab results, doctor diagnoses and hospitalization records, among other categories, and amounts to a complete health history, including patient names and dates of birth. -Wall Street Journal   Neither doctors nor patients were notified of the program, while at least 150 Google employees have access to much of the data according to the report, citing a personal familiar with the program and documents. Employees at Ascension have sounded ethical and technical alarms over the way the data is being harvested and shared, however privacy experts say the data collection may be allowed under the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act of 1996 (HIPA), which allows hospitals to share patient data with business partners as long as it's only used "to help the covered entity carry out its health care functions." With Project Nightingale, Google is using the data to design AI-powered software that uses machine learning to custom tailor care to individuals.  The project is currently housed under Google's cloud division, and is not charging for services in the hopes of creating an omnibus search tool for centrally accessed patient data, according to documents.

Millions in U.S. Lost Someone Who Couldn't Afford Treatment - Gallup -- More than 13% of American adults -- or about 34 million people -- report knowing of at least one friend or family member in the past five years who died after not receiving needed medical treatment because they were unable to pay for it, based on a new study by Gallup and West Health. Nonwhites, those in lower-income households, those younger than 45, and political independents and Democrats are all more likely to know someone who has died under these circumstances. "Has there been a time in the last five years when a friend or family member passed away after not receiving treatment for their condition due to their inability to pay for it?" These data are based on surveys with 1,099 U.S. adults across all 50 states and the District of Columbia, conducted Sept. 16-30, 2019. Respondents were asked, "Has there been a time in the last five years when a friend or family member passed away after not receiving treatment for their condition due to their inability to pay for it?" These results are not meant to quantify the number of people who have died after not being able to pay for medical treatment, including prescription drugs, but rather the number of people who report knowledge of a death under such circumstances. In all, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimate that about 2.8 million persons died in 2017 in the U.S. across all causes. Dovetailing with these results is a rising percentage of adults who report not having had enough money in the past 12 months to "pay for needed medicine or drugs that a doctor prescribed" to them. This percentage has increased significantly, from 18.9% in January 2019 to 22.9% in September. In all, the 22.9% represents about 58 million adults who experienced "medication insecurity," defined as the inability to pay for prescribed medication at least one time in the past 12 months. The increase reflects a marked rise among women of over five percentage points to 27.5%, widening the gender gap to over nine points when compared with the 18.1% rate for men. And while data among both political independents and Republicans are statistically unchanged since September, medication insecurity among Democrats has risen over six points to 27.7%.

Even a Modest Co-Payment Can Cause People to Skip Drug Doses -There’s a logic to out-of-pocket medical payments. They’re supposed to make patients think twice before spending money on unnecessary health care. When it comes to drugs, however, they’re often preventing people from getting necessary care. A recent data brief from the National Center for Health Statistics said about a quarter of adults who had diagnosed diabetes asked their physician if there was a lower-cost medication they could try, even if things were working for them. Thirteen percent of them had not taken their medication as prescribed because of the cost. Some of these patients were uninsured. More than a third of such patients had not taken their medication as prescribed because of the cost; that was also the case for about 18 percent of those with Medicaid. What might be surprising, though, is that 14 percent of patients with private insurance went without their medication as well. A study in Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice last year examined data on cost-related skipping of diabetes medication. They found that more than 16 percent of those with diabetes engaged in this practice. Those who used insulin and those who earned less than $50,000 per year were more likely to do so.Such behavior isn’t localized to diabetes. Multiple studies have shown that when more cost sharing is involved, patients are less likely to stick to drug therapy. This is true when considering birth control, as well as the treatment of high cholesterol, high blood pressure and other chronic care medications.It’s even true in cancer. Before the introduction of tyrosine kinase inhibitors (T.K.I.s), patients with chronic myeloid leukemia could expect to live five to six years after diagnosis. These medications, taken orally every day, can lead to full life spans. They are costly, however, and need to be taken for the rest of a patient’s life. The researchers found that patients with relatively higher monthly co-payments ($53) were more likely to discontinue therapy within six months than those with lower co-payments (17 percent versus 10 percent). Stopping the therapy can lead to recurrence, even death. ““Even worse than that, in some cases if you take only part of what you are prescribed, your disease can change so the drugs no longer work for you. This can happen in the type of cancer that imatinib and other T.K.I.s are used to treat.”

California police arrest woman for delivering stillborn baby with drugs in its system -- California police arrested 25-year-old Chelsea Cheyenne Becker last week after she delivered a stillborn baby with methamphetamine in its system. “The levels of methamphetamine in this baby’s system were such high levels, even for an adult,” said Detective Sargent Justin Valilin, “so we believe that she was using almost the entire time she was pregnant.” Bail was set at $5 million for Becker, and she was booked into the Kings County Jail in Hanford, California last Tuesday night. She entered an initial plea of not guilty to the charges. There is no indication that Becker—who has a history of methamphetamine abuse and had lost custody of three previous children—intentionally aborted her pregnancy. Nonetheless, and in a chilling precedent for working class women in California and nationally, Becker was booked on a charge of first-degree murder, implying that her drug usage was not the result of addiction but was instead part of a conscious plan to poison her unborn fetus. Even if the charge was reduced to involuntary manslaughter, however, the state of California now makes clear that it plans to implement the anti-scientific and barbarous politics of the religious right granting personhood status to the unborn. Many obvious questions arise as a result of the incident. What if, instead of methamphetamine use, a pregnant woman imbibes alcohol leading to miscarriage?  What if miscarriage results from a mother’s inability to obtain proper medical care?

 Substance Abuse Touches Around Half Of All American Families -- According to Gallup, the effects of substance abuse are felt by around half of all American families, with, as Statista's Katharina Buchholz notes, only slight differences were recorded by the survey regarding race or sex. 46 percent of U.S. adults reported having dealt with substance abuse in their families. 18 percent said those were related just to alcohol, while 10 percent said their problems were related just to drugs. Another 18 percent said they had dealt with both. Women were slightly more likely to report substance abuse being a problem in their families. The difference between non-Hispanic whites and nonwhites reporting problems with substance abuse were two percentage points for alcohol and just one percentage point for drugs.That widened to 6 and 9 percent, respectively, between people reporting weekly church attendance and people seldom or never attending church service. Whether respondents held a college degree or not actually had a similar impact – people who did not go to or finish college were 7 percent more likely to report alcohol abuse and 4 percent more likely to report drug abuse in their families.The highest discrepancies were actually recorded in terms of region. Easterners were 9 percent less likely to report alcohol abuse than Westerners, while Midwesterners were 10 percent less likely to report drug abuse than people in the West.

Missouri officials tracked women’s menstrual periods in effort to shut down state’s last abortion provider -- Missouri’s Department of Health and Senior Services director testified at an October 29 administrative hearing that the state had used a spreadsheet to track the menstrual periods of about 70 women. Dr. Randall Williams said that the women tracked had been patients at the Planned Parenthood health clinic in St. Louis, the state’s last remaining abortion provider. The hearing was held to decide whether or not the clinic would remain open. If closed, it would make Missouri the first state in decades not to house a single abortion provider within its boundaries, forcing residents to cross into neighboring states such as Illinois to legally obtain medically safe abortions, or to do without the constitutionally protected procedure. Lawyers for Planned Parenthood discovered the spreadsheet attached to an email with the subject line “Director’s Request,” referring to Williams, although Williams has denied personally requesting or seeing the spreadsheet before the hearing. State health officials said they had a legal obligation to collect that information and were using the data as part of an effort to investigate evidence of any failed abortions at the clinic. They also kept track of patients’ previous medical procedures and the gestational age of their fetuses. The spreadsheet contained confidential, non-medical information, such as patients’ names and medical ID numbers, which could be used by the state to identify and locate them—effectively spying on patients. The department said that it wanted to determine whether any patients returned to the Planned Parenthood location because their abortion had failed and if the clinic had properly reported those incidents. The state found just four incomplete abortions out of a total of 3,000 provided by the clinic in 2018. The collecting of patient data in an effort to bolster the state’s case for severely restricting citizens’ access to reproductive health services is a violation of fundamental privacy rights guaranteed in the Fourth Amendment of the US Constitution. The revelation of the tracked data points to the lengths Missouri officials are willing to go to end women’s right to abortion within state boundaries. In May 2019, Missouri became the sixth state in the US to pass “heartbeat” legislation, which makes abortions illegal as soon as an embryonic or fetal heartbeat can be detected. Missouri’s HB 126 would ban abortions at eight weeks of pregnancy, before many women even know they are pregnant, and grants no exceptions for women who become pregnant as the result of rape or incest.

EPA To Limit Science Used To Write Public Health Rules — The Trump administration is preparing to significantly limit the scientific and medical research that the government can use to determine public health regulations, overriding protests from scientists and physicians who say the new rule would undermine the scientific underpinnings of government policymaking.A new draft of the Environmental Protection Agency proposal, titled Strengthening Transparency in Regulatory Science, would require that scientists disclose all of their raw data, including confidential medical records, before the agency could consider an academic study’s conclusions. E.P.A. officials called the plan a step toward transparency and said the disclosure of raw data would allow conclusions to be verified independently.“We are committed to the highest quality science,” Andrew Wheeler, the E.P.A. administrator, told a congressional committee in September. “Good science is science that can be replicated and independently validated, science that can hold up to scrutiny. That is why we’re moving forward to ensure that the science supporting agency decisions is transparent and available for evaluation by the public and stakeholders.”The measure would make it more difficult to enact new clean air and water rules because many studies detailing the links between pollution and disease rely on personal health information gathered under confidentiality agreements. And, unlike a version of the proposal that surfaced in early 2018, this one could apply retroactively to public health regulations already in place. “This means the E.P.A. can justify rolling back rules or failing to update rules based on the best information to protect public health and the environment, which means more dirty air and more premature deaths,” said Paul Billings, senior vice president for advocacy at the American Lung Association. Public health experts warned that studies that have been used for decades — to show, for example, that mercury from power plants impairs brain development, or that lead in paint dust is tied to behavioral disorders in children — might be inadmissible when existing regulations come up for renewal.

 Old People Can Start Infusing Children's Blood Again  -Less than a year after the FDA warned old people against infusing the blood of young people, Stanford graduate Jesse Karmazin says his company, Ambrosia, is back in business despite the agency issuing a 'buyer beware,' according to OneZero. Jesse Karmazin, the CEO and founder of Ambrosia, told OneZero in an interview that the company had resumed giving customers transfusions of plasma, the colorless liquid part of the blood, from young donors about a month ago. “Our patients really want the treatment,” he said. “Patients are receiving plasma transfusions from donors ages 16 to 25 again.” One-liter transfusions cost $8,000, and two-liter transfusions are $12,000. –  Karmazin, who isn't a licensed medical practitioner, stopped treating patients following the FDA announcement earlier this year and disabled his website. Now, young blood is back on the market - you just have to get it "off-label," meaning a doctor can prescribe it for something other than its approved use. Karmazin is a graduate of Stanford Medical School but does not have a license to practice medicine and does not do the transfusions himself. Instead, he contracts with doctors to do the procedures. When asked, he would not name any doctors he works with or other Ambrosia employees. He says the company does not obtain blood directly from young donors but gets it from licensed blood banks in the United States. –OneZero   "We’re a company interested in making you young again," he said at a 2017 conference. The company says that "experiments in mice called parabiosis provided the inspiration to deliver treatments with young plasma." That said, while plasma can help blood to clot or to manage excessive bleeding during surgeries, experts say there is no basis for using it to slow or reverse aging-related diseases as Karmazin has claimed. "There is no proven clinical benefit of infusion of plasma from young donors to cure, mitigate, treat or prevent these conditions, and there are risks associated with the use of any plasma product," read a February statement from FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb and Peter Marks, who leads the agency's biologics center. "The reported uses of these products should not be assumed to be safe or effective," the said.  "We’re concerned that some patients are being preyed upon by unscrupulous actors touting treatments of plasma from young donors as cures and remedies."

Black Death Is Back! Two Cases of Plague Confirmed in China- A middle-aged married couple in China was diagnosed with pneumonic plague, a highly infectious disease similar to bubonic plague, which ravaged Europe in the middle ages, as CNN reported.This is the second time the disease has been confirmed in the region this year. The first time was in May when a Mongolian couple died from bubonic plague after eating a raw kidney from a marmot. That triggered a six-day quarantine in the area, according to The Guardian.The two newest cases came from Inner Mongolia, a sparsely populated province in northern China, and were diagnosed in Beijing where the patients are receiving treatment, according to CNN.The Chinese government has warned citizens to take precautions to protect themselves from a potential outbreak, though it did say that there was no reason to panic and the risk of transmission was extremely low, as the New York Times reported.The New York Times also reported that the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention responded quickly to the cases, quarantined the patients, did an investigation into people who could have been exposed to the bacteria and disinfected all relevant sites. They also ramped up their monitoring of all patients with fevers. However, South Korea press affiliates have followed rumors on Chinese social media that the Chinese government is downplaying the scope of the disease and many more people are actually exposed and infected, as the UPI reports.

Rimjhim Mitra detained for protesting against ‘dengue' in Kolkata  - BJP leader Rimjhim Mitra along with other party workers staged a protest near Kolkata Municipal Corporation (KMC) office on November 13. They were protesting against the dengue problems in the city and demanded ‘dengue free’ Kolkata. The police also used water cannons to disperse the protesters.

South Korea Slaughters 380,000 Pigs After China's Pig Ebola Crosses Border -Cross-border transmissions of African swine fever is becoming a significant issue across Asia.Just last week, we warned about China exporting the hog-killing disease to Russia. Now it appears North Korea, a country that borders China, has already exported the virus to South Korea. South Korean authorities have been scrambling to contain the outbreak since mid-September.  A new report from Reuters, indicates 380,000 pigs have been slaughtered since the end of September, in the northern region bordering North Korea. Already, the government has led a significant effort to slaughter nearly 3% of the country's pig herd to prevent further spread. The first swine-fever case emerged in mid-September. Woo Hee-jong, a veterinary professor at Seoul National University, said government authorities aggressively killed pigs in the northern region to prevent the spread to large pig farms in the southern part of the country.As of October 10, swine fever cases were zero, and the attempt to prevent a further outbreak might have worked but has come at the cost of 380,000 pigs. So far, there are no reports of wild boar infected with the disease, but if that were the case, then the spread across the country would become unstoppable. The epicenter of the hog-killing disease started in China, where authorities have killed at least 50% of its pig herd this year.  The cross-border spread of African swine fever from China to Russia; China to North Korea; and now North Korea to South Korea suggests the virus is becoming uncontrollable for governments.

Air pollution nanoparticles linked to brain cancer for first time -- New research has linked air pollution nanoparticles to brain cancer for the first time. The ultra-fine particles (UFPs) are produced by fuel burning, particularly in diesel vehicles, and higher exposures significantly increase people’s chances of getting the deadly cancer. Previous work has shown that nanoparticles can get into the brain and that they can carry carcinogenic chemicals. Brain cancers are rare, and the scientists have calculated that an increase in pollution exposure roughly equivalent to moving from a quiet city street to a busy one leads to one extra case of brain cancer for every 100,000 people exposed. “Environmental risks like air pollution are not large in magnitude – their importance comes because everyone in the population is exposed,” . “So when you multiply these small risks by lots of people, all of sudden there can be lots of cases. In a large city, it could be a meaningful number, particularly given the fact that these tumours are often fatal.”   The discovery of abundant toxic nanoparticles from air pollution in human brains was made in 2016. Acomprehensive global review earlier in 2019 concluded that air pollution may be damaging every organ and virtually every cell in the human body. Toxic air has been linked to other effects on the brain, including hugereductions in intelligence, dementia and mental health problems in both adultsand children. The World Health Organization says air pollution is a “silent public health emergency”. The new study, published in the journal Epidemiology, found that a one-year increase in pollution exposure of 10,000 nanoparticles per cubic centimetre – the approximate difference between quiet and busy city streets – increased the risk of brain cancer by more than 10%. The pollution levels in the cities studied – Toronto and Montreal – ranged from 6,000/cm3 to 97,000/cm3. Weichenthal said people living with pollution of 50,000/cm3 have a 50% higher risk of brain cancer than those living with 15,000/cm3. “I think [Toronto and Montreal] are typical of major cities,” he said. “I wouldn’t expect the nanoparticles to be any less harmful anywhere else.” The analysis by the researchers took account of factors including income, smoking and obesity, and whether people moved house.

Cancer Takes Toll as New Roundup Trials Near - For the last five years, Chris Stevick has helped his wife Elaine in her battle against a vicious type of cancer that the couple believes was caused by Elaine's repeated use of Monsanto's Roundup herbicide around a California property the couple owned. Now the roles are reversed as Elaine must help Chris face his own cancer. Chris Stevick, who often mixed Roundup for his wife and tested the sprayer used to dispense the weed killer, was diagnosed last month with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), a type of non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Unlike Elaine's aggressive type of NHL known as central nervous system lymphoma, Chris's cancer is a type that tends to grow slowly. He was diagnosed after a physical examination showed abnormalities in his blood and prompted further tests. With the trial date of Feb. 24, 2020 looming, Elaine Stevick's lawyers asked Monsanto's attorneys if the company would agree that Chris Stevick's cancer claims could be joined with his wife's for the February trial in San Francisco. The attorneys argue that at the very least Chris Stevick's diagnosis is admissible evidence at his wife's trial as additional proof of their claim that Roundup exposure can cause non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Monsanto's attorneys oppose the joining of the claims and say that Elaine Stevick's trial should only proceed in February if there is no mention made of her husband's cancer.   U.S. District Judge Vince Chhabria said ahead of the hearing that he is "tentatively of the view" that a continuance of the trial will be necessary if the couple wants to try their claims together. He also said that if Elaine Stevick proceeds on her exposure claims alone, evidence of her husband's cancer diagnosis "will likely be inadmissible…"  Earlier this year another husband and wife suffering from cancer, Alva and Alberta Pilliod, were awarded more than $2 billion in damages in their lawsuit against Monsanto, though the judge in the case lowered the damage award to $87 million. The Pilliod trial was the third Roundup products liability trial to take place and the third in which juries found that Monsanto's Roundup herbicides cause non-Hodgkin lymphoma and that the company has hidden the risks from consumers. Alberta Pilliod's cancer has recently returned and it is not clear she will survive much longer, according to her attorneys.

Thailand wants to ban these three pesticides. The US government says no - You know it’s a dark day for America when foreign leaders have to lecture US officials about the importance of prioritizing public health over corporate profits.Yet that is what is happening now, as the Trump administration pressuresThailand not to ban three pesticides that scientific research has shown to be particularly dangerous to children and other vulnerable populations.Thailand’s leaders have said that as of 1 December, a ban will take effect on the use of the following farming chemicals: chlorpyrifos, an insecticide made popular by Dow Chemical that is known to damage babies’ brains; Syngenta’s paraquat, a herbicide scientists say causes the nervous system disease known as Parkinson’s that has been banned in Europe since 2007; and Monsanto’s glyphosate herbicide, which is linked to cancer and other health problems.Dow, Syngenta and Monsanto have each merged their way to become bigger corporate behemoths in recent years, wielding their enhanced power in Washington to keep these and other money-making pesticides on the market. For example, before merging with DuPont earlier this year and spinning off the agrochemical business that made chlorpyrifos, Dow successfully defended continued use of chlorpyrifos despite scientific concerns. The agrochemical companies are not having as much luck keeping foreign leaders in line, however, amid growing global awareness of the risks many pesticides spell for human health.Thailand joins dozens of countries that have already banned or are planning bans on paraquat, chlorpyrifos and/or glyphosate. Thailand’s national hazardous substances committee voted last month to ban all three due to the dangers established by scientific evidence. Thailand’s leaders were motivated in part by research showing that use of these chemicals in agriculture not only puts farm workers at risk, but also endangers consumers because the bug and weed killers’ residues persist in fruits, vegetables, grains and other foods. In the United States, pesticide residues are so common in domestic food supplies that a Food and Drug Administration report issued in September found more than 84% of domestic fruits, 53% of vegetables, and 42% of grains sold to consumers carried pesticide residues. US regulators parrot industry talking points as they insist that dietary exposures to pesticides are nothing to worry about and say any risks to farm workers can be mitigated with proper training, protective clothing and other measures.

'Insect Apocalypse' Will Have Dire Con​sequences for ​All Life on Earth​, Report Warns -The last 50 years have been brutal for wildlife. Animals have lost their habitats and seen their numbers plummet. Now a new report from a British conservation group warns that habitat destruction and increased pesticide use has on a trajectory for an "insect apocalypse," which will have dire consequences for humans and all life on Earth, as The Guardian reported. The new report by the South West Wildlife Trusts, estimates that nearly half of all insects have been lost since 1970 and that 41 percent of the world's one million known insect species are living under the threat of extinction, as the BBC reported."If these massive declines continue, the ramifications are enormous," said Dave Goulson, a professor of biology at the University of Sussex and the author of the new report to CNN. "Three quarters of our crops depend on insect pollinators. Crops will begin to fail. We won't have things like strawberries. We can't feed 7.5 billion people without insects." Pesticide use has decimated insect populations and had collateral damage effects beyond its intentions. While pesticides have been effective at protecting crops against insects that will feast on them, the run off and spray has killed off insect populations in neighboring fields and in waterways, as the BBC reported.The report focused primarily on bug populations in the UK, which has some of the most studied bugs in the world. It found that pesticide use has doubled in the last 25 years and that 23 bee and wasp species have gone extinct. Butterfly habitats have fallen 77 percent in the last 50 years. And, insects further up the food chain that eat other insects have been some of the hardest hit. The spotted flycatcher, for example, only eats flying insects. Its numbers have declined by 93 percent since 1967, according to the new paper, as The Guardian reported.Insects are an essential part of a healthy ecosystem, serving as pollinators, recyclers, decomposers and food for other animals. "We can't be sure, but in terms of numbers, we may have lost 50 percent or more of our insects since 1970 – it could be much more," said Goulson to The Guardian. "We just don't know, which is scary. If we don't stop the decline of our insects there will be profound consequences for all life on earth [and] for human wellbeing."

Republicans seek to overturn Key West ban on coral-damaging sunscreens  - When city leaders in the Florida resort town of Key West voted earlier this year to ban the sale of sunscreens that scientists say are harmful to coral reefs, it was, in the words of mayor Teri Johnston, “a black and white issue”. Fearful of accelerating the decline of the fragile Great Florida reef – the 360-mile band of living coral stretching from west of the Florida Keys to the state’s Atlantic coast – commissioners believed they were taking an important step for environmental preservation. Florida’s Republican politicians, however, are framing the issue as a matter of public health as they pursue legislation at the state level seeking to overturn the ban, using the same arguments that failed to stop Hawaii enacting a similar measure in 2018. In effect, the debate has become one of protecting coral reefs versus preventing skin cancer.Backed by dermatologists who cite Florida’s soaring rates of melanoma, the deadliest form of skin cancer, they say it would be dangerous to ban the sale of sunscreens containing the chemicals oxybenzone and octinoxate, which filter ultraviolet rays.“Unfortunately, with all the wonderful things that come with our beaches and sunshine, we also rank second in the nation for the highest rate of new melanoma cases,” state senator Rob Bradley, sponsor of the bill, told the senate’s industry committee. He said the Key West ban, set to take effect in January 2021, would remove many of the leading brands of sunscreen from the shelves, including products by Hawaiian Tropic, Banana Boat and Coppertone that use the chemicals, and eliminate the public’s “first line of defense” against skin cancer.

Gulf Oysters Are Dying, Putting a Southern Tradition at Risk - New York Times. This spring and summer, the Mississippi River, swollen by Midwestern rain and snow, inundated coastal marshes, lakes and bays withfreshwater, is killing oysters by the millions. That has led to shortages and soaring prices.The future isn’t looking much better, given the continuing impact of oil extraction, flood-protection measures and the climate change that many scientists believe will increase precipitation in the long term. For the people who harvest, sell, shuck and serve the bivalves, that’s a worrisome prospect: Oysters, traditionally cheap and plentiful, are more central to the restaurant and cooking culture of the Gulf Coast than to that of any other region. “Oysters are part of who we are,” said Mr. Sunseri, whose ancestors founded P & J in 1876. If not for his good health and lack of debt, Mr. Sunseri said, “We’d be closed.”In September, the United States Department of Commerce determined that Louisiana, Alabama and Mississippi were suffering “a catastrophic regional fishery disaster,” making businesses in those states eligible for federal assistance.Louisiana normally accounts for a third of the nation’s annual oyster harvest. The current season isn’t over, but losses reported so far are so severe “that we’re likely to not remain the largest oyster producer in the United States,” said Patrick Banks, an assistant secretary in the Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries. Since oysters take two to three years to reach market size, restaurant and seafood industry leaders are bracing for lower yields. If the higher prices persist, Gulf oysters could cease being a delicacy that crosses class lines. “Oysters are just becoming unaffordable,”   “People need to start thinking about another dressing for their turkeys.”

Global Warming Is Already Destroying New England’s Fisheries  -- Fourth-generation fisherman Al Cottone captains one of the 15 fishing boats still active in the waters around Gloucester, Massachusetts. Not a decade ago, there were 50. To fish in the Gulf of Maine—the ocean inlet spanning from Cape Cod up to the southern tip of Nova Scotia—is to navigate one of the fastest-warming bodies of water on the planet. “It’s not something you see with your naked eye,” Cottone told me. “But fish are definitely reacting differently, and I’m attributing it to climate change. We’re seeing them in deeper water—they’re trying to get the right temperature at depth.” Like many of the world’s worst climate impacts, extreme water temperatures along the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf is directly connected to melting glaciers. Around the world, the effects differ: In the Himalayas, glacial melt has led to intense flooding. As the ice diminishes, scientists expect a crisis in fresh water supplies for the 800 million people in the region who rely on seasonal runoff. In the North Atlantic, the melting of the Greenland ice sheet has triggered a slowing of ocean currents that routinely circulate cooler water into New England. “Since 2010, we’ve had weaker flow in that cold water current,” said Andrew Pershing, Chief Scientific Officer at the Gulf of Maine Research Institute. Pershing compares what’s happening in the Northeast right now to a bathtub whose cold water tap got turned down a bit while the hot water kept flowing. It’s left the Gulf of Maine with a warming level at almost four times the global ocean average. For centuries, the Northeastern U.S. has featured an abundance of fish, especially cod. “I mean, we named a whole Cape after it,” Pershing said. Cottone used to catch 34,000 pounds of cod a year. This year, he’s down to 2,000 pounds. Part of that is because of concerns about overfishing—in 2013 the federal government put some very low quotas on what professional fishermen are allowed to bring in. But another part of that, according to Pershing, is a diminishing ecosystem that just can’t support larger, meaty fish like it used to.

There's a hidden consequence of climate change: a deadly virus that's killing key marine species -  Climate change means melting ice and habitat loss for animals in the Arctic. But there's an invisible side effect of warming temperatures and rising tides, and it's killing key marine species. Melting Arctic sea ice has opened new pathways for Arctic and sub-Arctic species to interact, and that contact has introduced a potentially deadly virus to mammals in the Northern Pacific Ocean, according to a new study in Scientific Reports.Over 15 years, researchers identified two new channels linking the Atlantic and Pacific oceans between Russia and Alaska. Animals who live there are interacting for the first time, creating a reservoir of the deadly pathogen Phocine distemper virus.The virus, also called PDV, was first identified in European harbor seals, killing thousands in 1988 and again in 2002. It reemerged in 2004, but this time in northern sea otters in Alaska.It was surprising that the disease jumped to a different species in a different ocean, said study author Tracey Goldstein, associate director of One Health Institute at UC Davis School of Veterinary Medicine. It's what led scientists to believe that melting ice was to blame for the infection's spread."Animal health and human health and environmental health are so linked, if one deteriorates then the rest do, too," she told CNN. To evaluate the extent of the infection, researchers took nasal swabs and blood samples from more than 2,500 ice-dwelling seals, Steller sea lions and northern sea otters from Alaska to Russia living in its marginal seas and oceans. Widespread exposure to the infection peaked twice, in 2003 and 2009. Both outbreaks were preceded by record-low sea ice, Goldstein said.

Baby Fish Nurseries Are Riddled With ‘Prey-Sized’ Plastic, Alarming Study Finds --We’re slowly realizing that we’ve contaminated an enormous swath of the planet, from the deepest ocean trenches to the highest mountain peaks, with plastic. Animals haven’t been spared, either. In fact, new research suggests some baby fish are spending their first days on Earth eating manufactured petroleum products.The study, led by researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academies of Sciences, found that larval fish nurseries off the coast of Hawaii are hotbeds of plastic pollution, with trash pieces outnumbering actual fish seven to one. As a result, baby fish looking for a bite are sometimes chowing down on tiny flecks of “prey-sized” plastic instead.  While the study only looked at one corner of the ocean, the researchers suspect their results may be globally relevant due to the ubiquity of plastic pollution. “We believe our research and our findings are not just isolated but may be a window into other locations around the world,” said co-lead study author Jamison Gove, a research oceanographer at NOAA.

Where plastic outnumbers fish by seven to one  -Plastic is building up in the areas of the ocean where fish feed and grow, according to research. A study found bits of plastic outnumber baby fish by seven to one in nursery waters off Hawaii. It appears that the same ocean processes that concentrate prey for juvenile fish also accumulate floating plastics. There is growing evidence that plastic is being ingested by marine life, but the health implications are unclear. "We don't have the data to say whether or not this has a negative effect on fish populations," Dr Gareth Williams of Bangor University, UK, told BBC News. "But the fact that they're eating these non-nutritious particles at the point when eating is so critical for their survival in those first few days, it can only be a bad thing." The researchers set out to investigate the roles of "slicks" as nursery habitats for tiny larval fish. Slicks are naturally occurring, ribbon-like, smooth water features of the oceans, which are full of plankton, an important food resource. When the researchers started surveys for plankton off the coast of Hawaii, they were surprised to find lots of plastic in the nets. "It was completely unexpected," said Dr Williams. "The fact that the plastics outnumber the larval fish was astonishing." Plastic densities in surface slicks off Hawaii were, on average, eight times higher than the plastic densities recently found in the Great Pacific Garbage Patch. Inside the slicks there were seven times more plastics than there were larval fish. "We were shocked to find that so many of our samples were dominated by plastics," said Dr Jonathan Whitney, a marine ecologist for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Baby fish are "preying" on microplastic, and it will end up in your stomach -- In their earliest days, most ocean-faring fish actually reside in calm ribbons of water at the surface, taking advantage of the food and shelter they can provide. Unfortunately, these aquatic nurseries are also home to a shockingly high concentration of plastic particles — many of them the same size, shape, and color as the baby fish’s favorite foods. Researchers found that larval fish living off the coast of Hawaii are eating an enormous amount of plastic at a time in their lives when nutrition is especially crucial. The results, published Monday in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, suggest that the plastic accumulating in young fish could end up in humans’ bellies. The larvae of fish humans love to eat, like swordfish, mahi-mahi, and triggerfish (which apparently tastes like crab) all had plastic inside them, the researchers found. So did flying fish, a common prey animal for tuna, meaning plastic from them could make its way up the food chain and into your tuna salad sandwiches. Plastic pieces can easily mimic food, if you're a larval fish. Larval flying fish (top) and triggerfish (bottom) with ingested plastics zoomed in. Dime shown for scale. The plastic pieces inside the fish were nearly all microfibers: polyester, nylon, polyethylene terephthalate, rayon, and artificial cellulose. And they were “primarily blue or translucent in color” — the same blue color as the fish larvae’s favored food, zooplankton.As a result, the baby fish might confuse the plastics for their prey, the study suggests.  And the fact that plastic particles are particularly common in areas called surface slicks, or “meandering lines of convergence on the ocean surface,” is a serious problem for these juvenile swimmers, the researchers say.  In these slicks, larval fish gather; they’re home to more than 40 percent of ocean surface dwellers, the researchers say. This time-lapse video shows surface slick formation and movement in the coastal waters of Hawaii Island. Surface slicks also collect most of the floating plastic in these areas of the ocean — nearly 92 percent. And the size of those plastic pieces tends to be small, the same size as the larvae’s prey. In the slicks off the coast of Hawaii, the researchers found 40 percent more prey-sized particles in slicks as compared to ambient water.It’s perhaps no wonder, then, that the researchers found a disproportionate number of fish larvae chowing down on plastic in these areas. There’s simply more opportunity for ingestion. In the 658 fish the researchers looked at, those found in surface slicks were more than twice as likely as those found elsewhere to have eaten plastic.The problem is only set to get worse, the study suggests. As larger plastic particles collecting in the ocean break up, they will add to the number of tiny plankton lookalikes in the slicks. Yet more not-food-that-looks-like-food for the baby fish to hoover up.

Indonesia’s food chain turns toxic as plastic waste exports flood in - Plastic waste exports to south-east Asia have been implicated in extreme levels of toxins entering the human food chain in Indonesia. A new study that sampled chicken eggs around sites in the country where plastic waste accumulates identified alarming levels of dioxins and polychlorinated biphenyls long recognised as extremely injurious to human health.In one location the level of dioxins in eggs collected near an Indonesian factory that burns plastics for fuel were similar to levels in eggs collected near the notorious Agent Orange hotspot in Bien Hoa, Vietnam, which is considered one of the most dioxin-contaminated locations on Earth. The study is the first to demonstrate food chain contamination in south-east Asia with high levels of hazardous chemicals as a consequence of waste mismanagement and plastic waste imports. The report – Plastic Waste Poisons Indonesia’s Food Chain – was compiled by researchers from the global environmental health networkIPEN, along with the Arnika Association and several local Indonesian organisations.  According to the study, an adult eating just one egg from a free-range chicken foraging in the vicinity of the tofu factory in Tropodo would exceed the European Food Safety Authority tolerable daily intake for chlorinated dioxins by seventy-fold.   Indonesia’s import volume doubled between 2017 and 2018, with residents in some areas burning piles of plastic waste to reduce the volume clogging streets and piling up around houses. In Tropodo, the waste is used to fuel local tofu factories. Eggs collected in the communities were found to contain highly hazardous banned chemicals including dioxins, flame retardants, and the toxic “forever chemical”, perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS). Numerous studies have linked the chemicals found in the eggs with a host of health impacts. Dioxin exposure is linked to a variety of serious illnesses in humans, including cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes, and endometriosis. Flame retardant chemicals, short-chain chlorinated paraffins and polybrominated diphenyl ethers disrupt endocrine function and negatively affect reproductive health.

Coca-Cola is world’s largest plastic polluter for second year straight - NY Post -  Coca-Cola was once again named the world’s largest plastic polluter.For the second year in a row, the nonprofit Break Free From Plastic tagged the Atlanta-based Coke as the biggest producer of plastic waste.The environmental group had 72,541 volunteers in 51 countries collect plastic waste in September, and 43 percent of what they found were clearly marked consumer brands, the Guardian reported. Coca-Cola was number one, with almost 12,000 Coca-Cola products found in 37 countries across the world.Nestlé and Pepsico followed.While Coke was the top source in Africa and Europe, in the US, Nestle was the biggest producer of plastic pollution. Solo Cup Company and Starbucks were Nos. 2 and 3.In Europe, Heineken was the third-largest plastic polluter. “Any time our packaging ends up in our oceans – or anywhere that it doesn’t belong – is unacceptable to us,” Coca-Cola said in a statement to the Intercept. “In partnership with others, we are working to address this critical global issue, both to help turn off the tap in terms of plastic waste entering our oceans and to help clean up the existing pollution.”

Illegal snares killing SE Asia wildlife - The animals of Southeast Asia’s tropical rainforests are under threat. As if deforestation and habitat degradation weren’t enough to contend with, cheap, easy-to-produce illegal snares are being set at an alarming rate in the last refuges for wildlife in the region, indiscriminately killing and maiming ground-dwelling mammals and birds. A new study, co-authored by two WWF conservationists, has found that these illegal snares are a more severe threat to the biodiversity of Southeast Asia than forest degradation caused by logging. This reinforces the belief already held by many conservationists that snaring is having a truly devastating effect on the wildlife of the Greater Mekong region and has major implications for how conservation work should be conducted in the region. This is not to diminish the importance of habitat conservation. The contribution of habitat loss to declines in biodiversity is far from trivial, with complete deforestation leading to numerous extinction events throughout human history. We should continue to expand and better manage Southeast Asian forested areas.However, the new study found that while both defaunation drivers (that is, reasons for large-scale loss of wild animals in a specific area) resulted in functional extinctions (certain species appearing in less than 2.5% of camera-trap locations), the relative impact of these two drivers differed substantially. Higher defaunation rates in the hunted sites suggest that widespread indiscriminate hunting is a more severe threat than moderate levels of habitat degradation.“Snares are pernicious because they are inexpensive to make, can be set very quickly, and are incredibly deadly to anything that steps into them,” said Francois Guegan, conservation director of WWF Laos and a co-author on the paper. “Countries like Laos, Vietnam and Cambodia are facing a snaring crisis, and if we are to prevent the remaining endemic species of this region from going extinct, we must dramatically improve the management of protected areas and invest in specialized wildlife-protection teams.”

Illegal Gold Mining Is Laying Waste to the Amazon - Last summer, scientist Maria Rodriguez traveled to the Peruvian region of Madre de Dios, once the home of lush rainforests, meandering rivers and thriving wildlife. But her destination was anything but picturesque. She'd come to study several sites ravaged by illegal gold mining that had left a legacy of destruction and mercury poisoning. One area, in fact, resembled a lunar landscape, rather than a rainforest. "No more trees, very dry, full of sand and rocks," she said. "We couldn't believe what our eyes were seeing. How did this happen?"  It happened because small-scale artisanal gold miners had been defying the law by working there, using toxicmercury to separate gold from the soil and river sediments. They extract the sediments from the river, pile them on the riverbanks, and then add mercury. Finally, they burn the mix, isolating the gold and releasing most of the mercury into the air. The remaining mercury stays in the soil, or ends up in the water, threatening wildlife, plants — and people.  "Miners were working under these black plastic roofs and some of them inside the river or at the riverbanks," she recalled. "We even saw families with children. This was very frustrating because we knew they were polluting this beautiful environment, and also contaminating themselves. The mercury can affect the nervous system after exposure, especially in children."

 Two Dead as Venice Faces Worst Floods in 50 Years - Two people have died as Venice has been inundated by the worst flooding it has seen in more than 50 years,The Guardian reported Wednesday. One elderly man was found electrocuted on the island of Pellestrina when he was struck by lightning while operating an electric water pump. The body of a second man was found in his home.Venice Mayor Luigi Brugnaro announced on Twitter Tuesday night that he would declare a state of emergency Wednesday.The "acqua alta," or high tide, came up to 187 centimeters (approximately 73.6 inches) Tuesday night, according to a government statement reported by CNN. That's just below the highest tide ever recorded at 194 centimeters (approximately 76.4 inches) in 1966. Another surge is expected Wednesday, according to The Guardian.This year's flood comes just one year after the city also saw major flooding in the fall. Last year's flooding caused €2.2 million (approximately $2.42) worth of damage to St. Mark's Basilica, according to The Guardian. And the famous church was inundated again this year, BBC News reported."Venice is on its knees," Brugnaro said in a tweet reported by the Associated Press. "St. Mark's Basilica has sustained serious damage like the entire city and its islands."The church has flooded six times in 1,200 years, and four of those floods were in the last 20, St. Mark's council member Pierpaolo Campostrini told B BC News. In total, Tuesday's floods inundated more than 85 percent of the city, the Associated Press reported. At least 60 boats were damaged, and the Venice hotel association said that it faced massive damage at its properties: Power went out and guests had to be evacuated to higher floors.  Brugnaro promised completion of the "Moses" project to protect Venice from flooding by building offshore barriers, The Guardian reported. Construction began in 2003 but has been delayed, partly due to a corruption scandal.

Climate change blamed as floods overwhelm Venice, swamping basilica and squares -(Reuters) - Venice’s mayor declared a state of emergency on Wednesday after “apocalyptic” floods swept through the lagoon city, flooding its historic basilica and inundating squares and centuries-old buildings. Thoroughfares were turned into raging torrents, stone balustrades were shattered, boats tossed ashore and gondolas smashed against their moorings as the lagoon tide peaked at 187 cm (6ft 2ins) shortly before midnight. It was the highest level since the record 194 cm set in 1966 but with rising water levels becoming a regular threat to the tourist jewel, city mayor Luigi Brugnaro was quick to blame climate change for the disaster. “Venice is on its knees,” said Brugnaro. “The damage will run into hundreds of millions of euros.” “This is the result of climate change,” he said on Twitter. One man died on Pellestrina, one of the many islands that dot the Venetian lagoon, electrocuted while trying to pump water out of his house. “Venice has been tortured, but there are also other parts of the Veneto region besides Venice. It is an apocalyptic disaster,” regional governor Luca Zaia told reporters. Venice’s huge Saint Mark’s Square, once described as Europe’s living room, was submerged by more than one meter of water, while the adjacent Saint Mark’s Basilica was flooded for the sixth time in 1,200 years - but the fourth in the last 20. “The Basilica is suffering structural damage because the water has risen and so it’s causing irreparable damage,” said Venice Archbishop Francesco Moraglia, warning that ancient mosaics and tiling might have been badly degraded.

Venice Declares State of Emergency After Near-Record Tide and Floods - Venice suffered its second-highest tide on record, threatening its fragile lagoon and Renaissance buildings, as Mayor Luigi Brugnaro prepared to declare a state of emergency and said climate change is menacing the historic maritime city.The flood waters, peaking at 187 centimeters (74 inches) above their benchmark and the highest since 1966, will have a lasting impact on the city, Brugnaro warned. “These are the effects of climate change,” he said in a Twitter post.“It’s a tragedy of a lifetime,” said Nicola Ussi, a 41-year-old shop clerk. “The city is showing how fragile it is.” With traditional industries abandoning the area, Italy’s development ministry has declared the Venice region in industrial crisis. Critics charge that authorities have made too many concessions to the tourist industry at the expense of sustainable environmental policies that could shield the city from flooding. A 2017 report by the Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development warned that Venice will be underwater within a century if climate change isn’t slowed and adequate defenses aren’t put in place. The damage in Venice comes in the wake of a week of extreme weather throughout the country. Three southern regions were on maximum storm alert as heavy winds, rain and hail hit the area. Crops and roads were damaged across Italy, and civil protection authorities advised drivers to avoid coastal roads. Schools closed in some regions, and streets were flooded in Rome and near Milan, with more rain and snow forecast over the next week.

Italian council flooded for first time moments after officials rejected climate change measures -The Veneto regional council, located on Venice’s Grand Canal, was flooded for the first time in history moments after officials rejected a measure aimed at tackling climate change.Venice has been hit by flooding in recent days due to record tides, leaving parts of the city submerged. Venice’s Mayor Luigi Brugnaro, has attributed the flooding to climate change.The council chamber in Ferro Fini Palace started to flood Tuesday night as council members were debating the 2020 budget, according to CNN."Ironically, the chamber was flooded two minutes after the majority League, Brothers of Italy, and Forza Italia parties rejected our amendments to tackle climate change," Democratic Party councilor Andrea Zanoni, who is deputy chairman of the environment committee, wrote in a Facebook post.The regional council reportedly rejected amendments that would fund renewable sources, replace diesel buses with "more efficient and less polluting ones,” and remove polluting stoves and reduce the impact of plastics, Zanoni noted.Zanoni alleged that the rest of the council has done little to address climate change, saying the regional budget presented has “no concrete actions to combat climate change."Roberto Ciambetti, the council’s president, rejected Zanoni’s accusation in a statement to CNN."Beyond propaganda and deceptive reading, we are voting (for) a regional budget that spent €965 million over the past three years in the fight against air pollution, smog, which is a determining factor in climate change," read the statement, according to the news outlet. The rest of the council's meetings for the week were moved to another location due to the flooding.

AP: At least 1,680 dams across the US pose potential risk -- The day, bright and clear, was unremarkable, the water flowing steadily over the top of the Lake Dunlap Dam near San Antonio as it was supposed to. Suddenly and without warning, a massive spillway gate on the 91-year-old dam broke loose and erupted from the surface of the lake, crashing to the river bed below with such force that it shook the camera. Water poured through the opening in a gushing waterfall. No one was hurt, but scores of lakefront homeowners were affected: their boats stranded along docks overlooking the former lakebed, their property values in the tank. Just two months earlier in northern Nebraska, another dam failure had cost a man his life. The 92-year-old Spencer Dam gave way after an unusually intense snow and rainstorm. Just minutes before the tragedy, two electric utility workers had tried unsuccessfully to free the frozen wooden spillway gates and then frantically warned Kenny Angel to flee from his nearby home. But it was too late. Angel’s home was washed away in a flood carrying ice chunks the size of cars; his body has never been found. Both old dams had been described by state inspectors as “good” or “fair” less than a year earlier. Until they failed, they looked little different from thousands of others across the U.S. — and that could portend a problem.   An investigation by The Associated Press has found scores of dams nationwide in even worse condition, and in equally dangerous locations. They loom over homes, businesses, highways or entire communities that could face life-threatening floods if the dams don’t hold. A review of federal data and reports obtained under state open records laws identified 1,688 high-hazard dams rated in poor or unsatisfactory condition as of last year in 44 states and Puerto Rico. The actual number is almost certainly higher: Some states declined to provide condition ratings for their dams, claiming exemptions to public record requests. Others simply haven’t rated all their dams due to lack of funding, staffing or authority to do so. Built for flood control, irrigation, water supply, hydropower, recreation or industrial waste storage, the nation’s dams are over a half-century old on average. Some are no longer adequate to handle the intense rainfall and floods of a changing climate. Yet they are being relied upon to protect more and more people as housing developments spring up nearby.   “There are thousands of people in this country that are living downstream from dams that are probably considered deficient given current safety standards,”  “Most people have no clue about the vulnerabilities when they live downstream from these private dams,”  “When they fail, they don’t fail with warning. They just fail, and suddenly you can find yourself in a situation where you have a wall of water and debris racing toward your house with very little time, if any, to get out.”

Hundreds Of Pennsylvania Dams Pose ‘High Hazard’ – (KDKA) — New research has found that Pennsylvania dams are just another part of the state’s infrastructure woes. The state has 86,000 miles of rivers and streams that include 3,400 dams. Hundreds of those dams pose a high hazard and could fail. Pennsylvania’s Dam Safety Program has increased its budget slightly so it can hire more inspectors. Many of the state’s dams are 50 to 100-years-old. The problem is not exclusive to Pennsylvania. The Associated Press has revealed that 1,700 dams across the country are a high hazard. 

 Toxic Air in Delhi Fueled By Rice Fields That India Doesn’t Need - Each year India’s rice farmers burn the stubble of the harvested crop, contributing to an annual haze that damages the health of those in and around the capital. Yet the country is producing more rice than it needs thanks to government subsidies. Guaranteed prices have encouraged farmers to grow so much rice -- one of the most water-intensive crops and a major source of greenhouse gases -- that India has become the world’s largest exporter of the grain and government stockpiles are now more than twice the required level. “Farmers in Punjab and Haryana need to diversify from rice to other crops to save water and the environment,” said former Agriculture Secretary Siraj Hussain. The government should help them shift to crops that use less water, like soybeans, pulses and corn, compensating them for any loss in earnings “for two or three years,” said Hussain, a visiting senior fellow at the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations in New Delhi. India exports more than 11 million tons of rice annually, and has about 25 million tons of rice and about 4 million tons of unmilled grain in buffer stocks, enough to feed the nation for more than three months. The government requirement is for 10.3 million tons in reserves on Oct. 1. But farmers in northwest India prefer to grow rice and wheat because the government buys the grains at guaranteed prices so it can sell the food at subsidized rates to the poor. The government expects to spend 1.51 trillion rupees ($21 billion) on food subsidies in 2019-20. Farmers have been taking the blame for the capital’s terrible air quality in recent days even though vehicle and industrial emissions contribute year-round, as does road and construction dust and domestic fires lit by the poor. “Everyone blames farmers for pollution,” said Harjinder Singh, 40, who grows rice and wheat on 4 acres he rents in the village of Sher Majra in Punjab state. “What about the factories that emit poisonous gases all year round?” he said, indicating a plant next to his field that turns plastic waste into furnace oil. But it’s the extra wallop from burning crop stubble that causes the annual slump in Delhi’s air quality, despite the fact that the practice is banned in the surrounding states of Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Rajasthan. In the trough-like topography of north India, the smoke lingers in the colder months.

Warming climate, population sprawl threaten California's future with more destructive wildfires - A recent spate of devastating wildfires has rocked California, causing billions of dollars of property damage, burning hundreds of thousands of acres, and displacing thousands from their communities. Wildfires have gotten bigger and more destructive in the Golden State, with 10 of California’s most destructive fires occurring in the past decade alone. Recent blazes like the Getty, Kincaide and Saddle Ridge fires may be under control now, but as conditions continue to dry due to a heating climate, California’s future is under threat from even more disastrous fires. Dry Climates and Wild Fires Wildfires are not a new phenomenon to the California ecosystem, which has tracked wildfire data since the early 1900s. Native Americans used to burn forests to maintain forest health. California’s Mediterranean climate keeps forests without rainfall for months at a time, which leads to a drying out of vegetation. Droughts are commonplace, with the state finally getting relief from a seven year drought earlier this year. Dry summers lead to wet winters, but the interval between the two becomes the prime season for wildfires. With temperatures warming due to climate change, vegetation is drier for longer periods than in years past. A heavy accumulation of “fuel,” the low shrubs, dry grass, and young trees that act as a ladder between the forest floor and large canopy overhead, become tinder when wildfire season comes in the fall. In combination with hot, dry, 60 to 70 mph Santa Ana and Diablo winds traveling from the east, this fuel creates the apocalyptic fires that swallow communities and forests whole. “These are not really best described as wildfires. Most people describe them as fire storms,” says Jon Keeley, a research scientist at the U.S. Geological Survey. “It is not something that firefighters have much chance of putting out until the wind dies down.”

PG&E told to explain why it shouldn’t be fined - California regulators have unanimously ordered an investigation into a dozen deliberate power outages that plunged millions of people into the dark last month. The California Public Utilities Commission voted Wednesday at a short meeting in San Francisco after testimony from people pleading for regulation, planning and leadership. Pacific Gas & Electric’s multiple rounds of outages were meant to prevent its equipment from igniting wildfires in windy weather and affected nearly 2.5 million people throughout Northern California. The state’s largest utility insisted on the shutoffs for public safety, but a parade of public officials complained that the company botched its communications. California’s top utility regulator is ordering Pacific Gas & Electric Co. to show why it should not be fined for violations related to its power shutdowns in October. The order directed at the state’s largest utility was signed Tuesday by the head of the California Public Utilities Commission and an administrative Law judge. Each violation of state requirements involving power shutdowns by utilities could carry a $100,000 penalty. Public officials and customers have complained the utility did not coordinate with local governments and failed to notify residents and businesses about the shutdowns intended to keep equipment from starting wildfires. PG&E initiated four sweeping blackouts in October, leaving nearly 2.5 million people without electricity at one point.

 PG&E Offering $13.5 Billion in Compensation to Wildfire Victims - Bankrupt utility giant PG&E Corp. is trying to offer $13.5 billion in compensation to the victims of wildfires sparked by its power lines as part of a restructuring plan, according to people with knowledge of the situation. The company’s shares surged as much as 19%. The offer by the San Francisco-based power company would match the amount that a group of its creditors -- led by Pacific Investment Management Co. and Elliott Management Corp. -- has agreed to pay victims in a rival reorganization proposal, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the negotiations are private. The two sides are at odds, however, over how to structure the payout and how much should come in the form of cash and stock, the peoplesaid. PG&E has spent months trying to come up with a restructuring plan that would get it out of the biggest utility bankruptcy in U.S. history by the middle of next year. The utility went bankrupt in January after its equipment was found to have started a series of catastrophic wildfires in 2017 and 2018, burying it in an estimated $30 billion worth of liabilities. California Governor Gavin Newsom has threatened a government takeover if the company can’t come up with a viable reorganization plan soon. The judge overseeing the case has ordered PG&E and victims to meet and to try to hammer out an agreement. The parties were in mediation on Monday, people familiar with the talks said. PG&E said in a statement that it “remains committed to working with the individual claimants to fairly and reasonably resolve their claims and will continue to work to do so.” The company noted that an initial restructuring plan it had filed in its bankruptcy case would have the utility “satisfying all wildfire claims in full.” A committee representing wildfire victims in PG&E’s bankruptcy case declined to comment. A group of creditors led by Elliott and Pimco have been pitching a rival restructuring plan for PG&E that would all but wipe out the shares of current stakeholders and hand them control of the company. Under that proposal, PG&E would use some cash and $12.75 billion in new stock to establish a wildfire victim trust that would administer payments.An $11 billion deal that PG&E had already struck with wildfire insurers has come under attack as negotiations between the company and actual fire victims drag on. A group of victims has filed a lawsuit against the utility, saying they should get paid before insurers do.

Gavin Newsom accused PG&E of ‘corporate greed.’ The utility spent $700,000 funding his campaigns and his wife’s films. - California Gov. Gavin Newsom has accused his state’s largest utility company of mismanaging funds he said it should have used to upgrade an aging electrical grid prone to deadly wildfires. But over the past two decades, Newsom (D) and his wife have accepted more than $700,000 from the Pacific Gas & Electric Co., its foundation and its employees as the utility has supported his political campaigns, his ballot initiatives, his inauguration festivities and his wife’s foundation, including her film projects, according to records reviewed by The Washington Post. The contributions illustrate Newsom’s ties to the company responsible for wildfires that have killed at least 85 people and caused billions of dollars in damage over the past three years. The governor has slammed PG&E for paying bonuses to executives and cash dividends to its investors instead of spending more on infrastructure upgrades that could have prevented the fires. “As it relates to PG&E, it’s about dog-eats-dog capitalism meeting climate change,” Newsom said at a news conference last month. “It’s about corporate greed meeting climate change. It’s about decades of mismanagement. It’s about focusing on shareholders and dividends over you and members of the public.” He added that he while can forgive the company for not predicting the degree of impact climate change has had on California, “I will not forgive them for not making the kind of investments in their equipment — hardening and undergrounding and anticipating this new reality of which they have had ample time to anticipate.” Records show PG&E has spent at least $227,000 on Newsom’s political campaigns and committees supporting them over his two decades in public office, helping to fund his rise from San Francisco mayor to one of the country’s most influential Democratic leaders. PG&E employees have spent an additional $70,000 on his campaigns. The company gave $25,000 for his mayoral inaugural costs and $25,000 to city ballot measures that he supported. Between 2011 and 2018, the utility’s philanthropic arm gave $358,000 to the Representation Project, a nonprofit group founded by Jennifer Siebel Newsom, the governor’s wife. The PG&E Corporation Foundation also gave $10,000 to the PlumpJack Foundation, a charity led by his sister, Hilary Newsom, according to information provided by PG&E. The company gave enough money to be listed as an associate producer in the credits for two of Jennifer Siebel Newsom’s documentary films. It also hostedhigh-profile screenings of the films at its offices, including in the atrium of its San Francisco skyscraper in 2011.

Australia braces for 'catastrophic' conditions as bushfires rage --Firefighters in Australia are racing to tackle devastating bushfires that have left three people dead, with authorities warning of perilous conditions ahead, including around the country's biggest city of Sydney.  In a statement on Sunday, the New South Wales state Rural Fire Service upgraded the forecast for the greater Sydney region to "catastrophic fire danger" this coming Tuesday. It is the first time the area has been rated at the highest level since new fire danger ratings were introduced in 2009. "High temperatures, strong winds and low humidity are forecast, making conditions dangerous," it said. Conditions for Tuesday in the greater Hunter Region north of Sydney were also rated as catastrophic, the highest level of bushfire danger, while extreme or severe conditions were predicted for other parts of the state. "If a fire starts and takes hold during catastrophic fire danger conditions, lives and homes will be at risk," the statement said. Three people have died in New South Wales since Friday, when a record number of emergency-level fires were declared in the state, and at least 150 homes have been destroyed. "We are ramping up for probably another 50 trucks full of crews to be deployed into New South Wales on Monday night ahead of conditions on Tuesday," NSW Rural Fire Service Commissioner Shan Fitzsimmons told reporters in Taree, one of the worst-hit areas. "We have seen the gravity of the situation unfold ... What we can expect is those sorts of conditions to prevail across a much broader geographic area as we head into Tuesday." Ross Bradstock, from the Centre for Environmental Risk Management of Bushfires at the University of Wollongong, described the situation as "unprecedented" for the affected regions, which have rarely - if ever - experienced such severe fires. "Sadly, given the weather forecast for the coming week, the crisis may worsen and extend southward into landscapes primed to burn via extreme dryness," he said.

This is not normal: what’s different about the NSW mega fires  - "Unprecedented" is a word that we are hearing a lot: from fire chiefs, politicians, and the weather bureau. I have just returned from California where I spoke to fire chiefs still battling unseasonal fires. The same word, "unprecedented", came up.   Unprecedented dryness; reductions in long-term rainfall; low humidity; high temperatures; wind velocities; fire danger indices; fire spread and ferocity; instances of pyro-convective fires (fire storms – making their own weather); early starts and late finishes to bushfire seasons. An established long-term trend driven by a warming, drying climate. The numbers don’t lie, and the science is clear. If anyone tells you, "This is part of a normal cycle" or "We’ve had fires like this before", smile politely and walk away, because they don’t know what they’re talking about. In NSW, our worst fire years were almost always during an El Nino event, and major property losses generally occurred from late November to February. Based on more than a century of weather observations our official fire danger season is legislated from October 1 to March 31. During the 2000s though, major fires have regularly started in August and September, and sometimes go through to April. The October 2013 fires that destroyed more than 200 homes were the earliest large-loss fires in NSW history – again, not during an El Nino. This year, by the beginning of November, we had already lost about as many homes as during the disastrous 2001-2002 bushfire season. We’ve now eclipsed 1994 fire losses. Fires are burning in places and at intensities never before experienced – rainforests in northern NSW, tropical Queensland, and the formerly wet old-growth forests in Tasmania.  On Friday, the NSW Rural Fire Service sent out an alert that fires were creating thunderstorms – pyro-convective events. In my 47 years of fighting fires I don’t remember this happening much. Now it happens quite regularly. On Friday, the atmosphere was relatively stable and therefore shouldn’t have been conducive to these wildly unpredictable and dangerous events. Yet it happened. Unprecedented. The drought we are facing is more intense than the Millennium Drought, with higher levels of evaporation due to higher temperatures. This has dried out the bush and made it easier for fires to start, easier for them to spread quickly, and as we saw on Friday, enabling spot fires to start twice as far ahead of the main fires as we would normally expect.

 These Devastating Photos Show The Effects Of The Massive Bushfires In Australia - Bushfires across Australia's most populated state of New South Wales have killed three people and ravaged more than 3,800 square miles of land. States of emergency have been declared in Queensland and New South Wales as arid weather and strong winds continue to create catastrophic fire conditions, which according to New South Wales state emergency services minister David Elliott “could be the most dangerous bushfire week this nation has ever seen.” These pictures capture the dramatic scene as more than 1,50o firefighters attempt to contain the blazes.

Interior proposes coveted deal to ex-client of agency head (AP) — The Interior Department is proposing to award one of the first contracts for federal water in perpetuity to a powerful rural California water district that had long employed Secretary David Bernhardt as a lobbyist. Conservation groups are demanding fuller disclosure of financial terms and an environmental review of the proposed deal for the California’s Westlands Water District, the nation’s largest agricultural water supplier. The water district serves some of country’s wealthiest and most politically influential corporate farmers. Bernhardt served as a lobbyist for Westlands until 2016, the year before he joined Interior, initially as deputy secretary. “The Interior Department needs to look out for the public interest, and not just serve the financial interests of their former lobbying clients,” said Rep. Jared Huffman, a Democrat from California. Responding to questions, Interior spokeswoman Carol Danko said the handling of the Westlands’ contract was delegated entirely to California staffers of the Bureau of Reclamation, which is under the Department of Interior. The agency will make a final decision after the legally mandated public comment period, she said. Doug Obegi, a senior attorney at the Natural Resources Defense Council, said the handling of the contract raises concerns Interior “is trying to give Westlands a sweetheart deal.” Bernhardt’s past lobbying work — much of it for industries with business before Interior — has led environmental groups and Democratic lawmakers to accuse him of lack of transparency and the appearance of conflict of interest in his work at the agency. As a lobbyist, he was involved in negotiations on a contentious 2016 federal law that made the Westlands’ proposed deal possible, allowing water districts to lock up permanent contracts for water from California’s federal water project.

The Growing Threat Of Water Wars -- We may live on a “blue planet,” but less than 3% of all of our water is fresh, and much of it is inaccessible (for example, because it is locked in glaciers). Since 1960, the amount of available fresh water per capita has declined by more than half, leaving over 40% of the world’s population facing water stress. By 2030, demand for fresh water will exceed supply by an estimated 40%. With nearly two-thirds of fresh water coming from rivers and lakes that cross national borders, intensifying water stress fuels a vicious circle, in which countries compete for supplies, leading to greater stress and more competition. Today, hundreds of international water agreements are coming under pressure. China, India, and Bangladesh are locked in a dispute over the Brahmaputra, one of Asia’s largest rivers, with China and India actively constructing dams that have raised fears of water diversion. India’s government has used water-flow diversion to punish Pakistan for terrorist attacks. Dam-building on the Nile by Ethiopia has raised the ire of downstream Egypt. And cross-border conflicts are just the beginning. Water-related tensions are on the rise within countries as well, between rural and urban communities, and among agricultural, industrial, and household consumers. Last year, water scarcity fueled conflicts in parts of eastern Africa, such as Kenya, which has a history of tribal clashes over access to water. In fact, there are long histories of conflict over the waters of many major rivers, including the Nile, the Amazon, the Mekong, and the Danube. But the severity and frequency of such conflicts are set to increase, as climate change alters rainfall patterns, leading to more frequent, intense, and prolonged droughts and floods. Making matters worse, dwindling water reserves are increasingly contaminated by industrial pollutants, plastics and other refuse, and human waste. In middle-income countries, less than one-third of wastewater is treated; in low-income countries, the share is much smaller. Roughly 1.8 billion people get their drinking water from feces-contaminated sources. The depletion of aquifers and inadequate investment in water infrastructure are exacerbating these problems.

Victoria Falls has not dried up - here's the proof - Africa Geographic - A number of photos have been circulating on the internet recently showing a very dry Victoria Falls. Some captions have even claimed that Vic Falls has dried up completely. This is totally untrue. Vic Falls has not dried up, and a ‘dry’ falls is, in fact, part of a very normal, yearly cycle. There is always water (lots of it) on the Zimbabwean side of Victoria Falls, and late in the dry season (October/November), very little water reaches the Zambian side of the Falls. https://youtu.be/FNccbMjm22Q   African Travel and Tourism Association chairman Ross Kennedy says: “Traditionally, Victoria Falls is at its driest at this time of year, and often before the rainy season begins, the Zambian side does come close to drying up, with just a small amount of water flowing over in some places. This is simply because the falls are slightly lower on the Zimbabwean side. However, due to exceptionally low rainfall in the catchment area during the last rainy season, the water level is at its lowest since 1996. The water levels will continue to drop as usual until the rains start in the catchment area north of Victoria Falls.”

 Cold snap of historic proportions hits East Coast, over 300 records fall - The most severe early November cold snap in more than a century has plowed over the East Coast, where record low temperatures were set in the majority of population centers Wednesday morning.Temperatures 20 to 30 degrees below normal covered much of the eastern third of the nation.Wednesday morning’s onslaught of low temperature records were set from Texas to Maine, adding to more than 100 other cold records set in the Plains, Midwest, and Tennessee and Ohio valleys on Monday and Tuesday. Weather.com reports that at least 300 records have fallen since the cold snap invaded the Lower 48 on Sunday.  Additional records for cold high temperatures were predicted Wednesday afternoon. The Weather Service described the intensity of the cold as “comparable to the ‘Blue Norther’ of 1911” in which temperatures crashed from near 80 into the teens and 20s in the same day in some areas.  Much of the eastern United States witnessed colder weather than parts of Alaska on Wednesday morning, as the jet stream — which divides cold and warm air — seesawed. And more than 75 percent of Lower 48 states endured freezing temperatures. The chill penetrated all the way to the Gulf Coast where the rush of frigid air over the warm waters gave rise to a plume of sea smoke. Pensacola, Fla., set a record low of 29 degrees — 42 degrees colder than the adjacent Gulf of Mexico water temperature. Temperatures fell as low as 13 degrees in central Alabama, where record lows were widespread. Weather.com noted many low temperatures in the Deep South were colder than any observed over the entirety of last winter. In the Appalachian Mountains, temperatures plummeted into the single digits even as far south as the Mid-Atlantic. Snowshoe and Canaan Valley, ski areas in West Virginia, sank to 1 and 2 degrees. Mount Mitchell, N.C., also fell to just 1 degree. And on Mount Washington, N.H., the mercury plunged to minus-17, a record low for the date, and the fourth-coldest temperature on record during November on the soaring peak. Temperatures were also impressively low in major cities. Among those setting record lows Wednesday morning: Atlantic City; Birmingham, Ala.; Buffalo; Burlington, Vt.; Charleston, S.C.; Cincinnati; Cleveland; Columbus, Ohio; Detroit; Indianapolis; Little Rock; Memphis; New York; Philadelphia; Pittsburgh; Providence, R.I.; Rochester, N.Y.; South Bend, Ind.; and Syracuse, N.Y.

It’s warmer in Alaska than in Alabama today - Alabama didn’t get much in the way of snow, but we’re definitely getting a big dose of cold on Tuesday. A blast of arctic air has taken center stage and as of Tuesday evening temperatures felt more like the dead of January than mid-November. Frigid temperatures and wind chills expected Wednesday has led at least one Alabama school system to delay the start of the day. And get this, it is forecast to be just as warm or warmer in Anchorage, Alaska, (37 degrees) than it is in Muscle Shoals, Huntsville and Birmingham today, according to the National Weather Service. Want proof? Here’s a look at temperatures in both places as of around 3 p.m. CST: The high in Anchorage, Alaska today was 36 degrees, which they surpassed as of Tuesday afternoon. The high in Birmingham on Tuesday was only 35 degrees. It was close to that on Tuesday afternoon. It has been cold enough that a few records have been set for lowest high temperature for this date. Muscle Shoals only reached 35 degrees today. That breaks the coldest high temperature record for Nov. 12, which was 42 in 1968. Huntsville’s high of 38 degrees was also a record-breaker. The old record was a high of 40 degrees in 1968. If that’s not bad enough, more records are likely to be broken overnight — this time low temperature records.

Parts of Outer Banks to see 22-foot waves, 70-mph gusts and ‘life-threatening’ floods - Parts of the Outer Banks off North Carolina’s coast will see “prolonged” gale force winds, 10 inches of rain and chest-deep flooding starting Friday, according to the National Weather Service. “A complex and slow moving coastal low will impact the area this weekend. Strong winds, dangerous surf, soundside flooding, ocean overwash, beach erosion, and locally heavy rainfall are all possible,” the NWS warned Friday.“Potentially life-threatening coastal flooding (is) possible, both from ocean overwash and sound-side flooding.” Areas north of Cape Hatteras and the nearby Southern Pamlico Sound and Core Sound will feel the brunt of the storm, including flood waters 4 feet above ground level, forecasters say. Nearby areas could see flooding of up to 2 feet.

 Cows swept off island during Hurricane Dorian found after swimming for miles - Three cows swept off an island during the raging storm of Hurricane Dorian have been located on North Carolina’s Outer Banks after apparently swimming four miles during the storm. The extraordinary swimming bovines were grazing on their home of Cedar Island when the giant storm hit on 6 September, generating an 8ft “mini tsunami” that swept away wildlife, including 28 wild horses and about 17 cows from the island’s herd. They were presumed dead, but Cape Lookout National Seashore staff spotted one of the cows on another barrier island a month after the storm. That sighting was followed by two more, apparently grazing peaceably. A picture of the rangy-looking trio is now on Facebook. Cows are recognized as adept swimmers comfortable with covering a few hundred yards. But swimming miles of open water in a hurricane is outside their general range of expertise.

PIOMAS November 2019 - Arctic Sea Ice by Neven - (see  graphics) Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center:During October there was a slowdown in ice growth, which is also reflected in the PIOMAS numbers. 2019 was the third year since 2007 to record a volume increase under 2000 km3. Given that 2016 increased even more slowly, it has overtaken 2019, which is now third lowest on record. But as can be seen on the graph above, the difference with 2012 (99 km3) and 2016 (31 km3) is negligible. Here's how the differences with previous years have evolved from last month: If you carefully observe the 2019 trend line on Wipneus' version of the PIOMAS graph, you'll see that it would have been lowest, had it not shot up during the last week of October (more on that below): The anomaly trend line on the PIOMAS volume anomaly graph is still in negative territory: As for average thickness, the 2019 trend line on the PIJAMAS graph has taken a massive drop, almost as spectacular as the 2012 trend line (light blue). This makes sense, as both years had a lot of open water to be covered with thin ice. It takes a while for that ice to thicken, so if you divide volume by extent to crudely calculate average thickness, the numbers will decrease:PIJAMAS 20191031The same effect can be seen, more or less, on the Polar Science Centre average thickness graph:  Extent has been going up fast since that last week of October and is now slightly above 2012, but well above crazy 2016: Nevertheless, the configurations for these three years is vastly different, as can be seen on the comparison ofUni Bremen sea ice concentration maps below (which you can find here). Whereas 2016 and especially 2012 have most of their open water on the Atlantic side of the Arctic, 2019 will have to do most of its upcoming expansion on the Pacific side of the Arctic: The speed of this expansion will depend on sea surface temperatures and weather, and this in turn will determine whether 2019 can creep any closer to 2016, both on the extent and volume graphs.

These maps show how many people will lose their homes to rising seas—and it’s worse than we thought -When you hear how many people are living on land that might be underwater by 2100, you might wonder how we know exactly how high the sea level will be so far into the future. That kind of modeling is incredibly complex, and involves countless calculations and assumptions that influence the outcome. But you probably don’t wonder how we know the elevation of the land. In many parts of the world a quick glance at Google Maps can tell you how many feet above sea level you are at any given time.But like anything we measure, our estimations of elevation are inherently error-prone. When you’re measuring how high a mountain is, being off by two meters (that’s 6.56 feet) it’s not a huge deal. But rising seas can make the same margin of error deadly for coastal areas. And that’s exactly what’s happening.  When researchers at Climate Central used a new method called CoastalDEM to estimate the elevations of the world’s coastal areas, the number of people vulnerable to sea level rise nearly tripled previous calculations. The new projection suggests up to 630 million people live in places that could be underwater by 2100, with more than half of those slipping under the rising seas by 2050. They published their findings in Nature Communications.

The climate crisis will make entire cities uninhabitable. It’s time to head underground - In 2010, Helsinki, Finland, approved an Underground Master Plan, completed in 2019, that covers the city’s entire 214 square kilometres – combining energy conservation, shelter from the long, cold winter and an enormous prepper bunker in case of Russian aggression. But it isn't just security and seasonal weather touted as reasons for living underground. Subterranean living offers an alternative to huge tower blocks and growing populations. Asmo Jaaksi, a partner at Helsinki architectural practice JKMM and the chief architect of the city’s underground Amos Rex Museum, says living underground conserves heat and may, for some, be one of the safest places as the climate emergency escalates. Helsinki has long pioneered underground living – the Temppeliaukio Church, designed by architects Timo and Tuomo Suomalainen was sunk into the city’s Toolo district in 1969 and, in 1993, the Itakeskus Swimming Hall – a large recreation centre that can handle 1,000 customers on an average day and converts into an emergency shelter with space for 3,800 people. “Helsinki stands on bedrock – a good foundations and very stable ground,” Jaaksi says. “The city is very overcrowded, and we have such long, dark and cold winters. Underground offers more room and connects us together away from the bad weather.”In 2017, Paris launched a competition, called Reinvent Paris 2, which asked designers to come up with uses for currently unused or under-used city-owned plots – most of which are underground. These include basements of historic buildings, tunnels freed up after cars were banned from the lower roads beside the Seine, unused reservoirs, old parking lots and former abattoirs. They have been turned into restaurants, shops, and a micro farm for edible insects.Architects in Mexico City have taken another approach: proposing a 300m underground pyramid, dubbed the Earthscraper, that is planned to sit as a mini-city beneath Mexico City’s main square. However, a $800 million (£620m) price tag saw the plans shelved.In Singapore, meanwhile, the government has already invested more than $188m (£146m) in engineering and research into underground construction and has modified its property rights laws so that all basements now belong automatically to the state. According to Singapore’s Department of Statistics, a population of 5.53m people share the island’s mere 719 square kilometres of land. This makes it the third most densely populated place on Earth. To date, the city-state has built upward – with apartment buildings reaching as high as 70 stories – whilst reclaiming land to push out the island’s coastline. But with projections for 1.5m more people in the next 15 years, Singapore’s options are as limited as its space.

Climate Change May Be Blowing Up Arms Depots - It was a little before 4 A.M., on an airless morning in June 2018, when the arms depot in Baharka, Iraqi Kurdistan, blew up. Brightening the dawn sky for kilometers around, the blast sent rockets, bullets and artillery rounds hurtling in every direction. Officials say no one was killed. But were it not for the early hour and reduced garrison, the death toll might well have been horrendous. A year later, another arsenal exploded just to the southwest of Baharka, reportedly destroying millions of dollars’ worth of ammunition amassed during the fight against ISIS. Two similar blasts around Baghdad followed a few weeks after that, killing and wounding dozens of people between them. Before the end of this past summer, at least six munitions sites had gone up in flames in Iraq alone, according to Iraqi security sources. While details of the blasts were scarce, investigators agreed that most incidents shared a common theme: hot weather. Each explosion came in the midst of a long, scorching Iraqi summer, when temperatures routinely topped 45 degrees Celsius (113 degrees Fahrenheit). And they all struck just as powerful heat waves ramped up. Explosives experts say such intense heat can weaken munitions’ structural integrity, cause the thermal expansion of explosive chemicals and damage protective shields. As climate change raises summer temperatures and boosts the number and severity of heat waves the world over, weapons experts warn of more of such unplanned explosions at munitions sites, or UEMS—particularly in places that are already steeped in conflict or have poor stockpile management, or both. This potent combination is fueling a spate of destruction and death that has residents of heavily militarized areas on edge. “As soon as it gets hot, we fear the worst,” says Emad Hassan, a welder in Dora, a Baghdad neighborhood that has experienced several depot disasters. There is no comprehensive set of statistics that specifically covers such heat-related detonations—not least because they often kill any nearby witnesses and destroy evidence, making it difficult to determine exactly what triggers these events. But using data from the Small Arms Survey, an arms-monitoring project based in Geneva, an analysis done by the author of this article suggests that UEMS are roughly 60 percent more likely between late April and mid-September. Those data also show that about 25 percent of such depot disasters go unexplained. Another fifth are thought to be related to environmental conditions—which suggests heat might already be one of their leading causes—according to a dozen weapons experts and military officials interviewed for this article.

The Federal Reserve Finally Talks About the Climate Crisis --It seems the reality of the climate crisis is too much for the Federal Reserve to ignore anymore. For the first time, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, one of its 12 branches, held the system's first climate-related economic conference last week. By hosting "The Economics of Climate Change" conference the Federal Reserve signaled its willingness to engage with 40 global central banks on addressing the climate crisis. The Network for Greening the Financial System is a cooperative network between banks and some of the world's largest economies. The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank has been a notable non-participant, according to Mother Jones. The conference also signals the Fed's awareness that the economic turmoil that the climate crisis is capable of will be too much to ignore, as The New York Times reported."Similar to many areas around the country, we need not look far from here to see the potentially devastating effects of our changing climate," said Lael Brainard, the Fed's governor in her speech at the conference. "Less than a hundred miles from here, families have lost their homes and businesses, and entire communities have been devastated by the Kincade fire. Some have described PG&E's bankruptcy as the first climate change bankruptcy. Some insurers have discontinued policies in fire-prone areas, which, in turn, is changing the costs of homeownership and the risk profiles of previously underwritten mortgages."The Federal Reserve Bank is tasked with enforcing financial regulation and for steering the country to full employment and stable prices. Yet, the climate crisis threatens the Fed's ability to make payments, to maintain financial stability, and to guide monetary policy, as Yahoo! Finance reported."When you put all these pieces together, it becomes pretty clear: climate change is an economic issue we can't afford to ignore," said San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, as Yahoo! Finance reported. "This is not a hypothetical risk of the future...the risks are here, we have to deal with them," she said, as Reuters reported.

How Scientists Got Climate Change So Wrong - For decades, most scientists saw climate change as a distant prospect. We now know that thinking was wrong. This summer, for instance, a heat wave in Europe penetrated the Arctic, pushing temperatures into the 80s across much of the Far North and,according to the Belgian climate scientist Xavier Fettweis, melting some 40 billion tons of Greenland’s ice sheet.Had a scientist in the early 1990s suggested that within 25 years a single heat wave would measurably raise sea levels, at an estimated two one-hundredths of an inch, bake the Arctic and produce Sahara-like temperatures in Paris and Berlin, the prediction would have been dismissed as alarmist. But many worst-case scenarios from that time are now realities.   A recent essay in Scientific American argued that scientists “tend to underestimate the severity of threats and the rapidity with which they might unfold” and said one of the reasons was “the perceived need for consensus.” This has had severe consequences, diluting what should have been a sense of urgency and vastly understating the looming costs of adaptation and dislocation as the planet continues to warm. Relying on the climate change panel’s assessment, economists estimated that the economic hit would be small, providing further ammunition against an aggressive approach to reducing emissions and to building resilience to climate change. As we now know, all of those predictions turned out to be completely wrong. Which makes you wonder whether the projected risks of further warming, dire as they are, might still be understated. How bad will things get?  So far, the costs of underestimation have been enormous. New York City’s subway system did not flood in its first 108 years, but Hurricane Sandy’s 2012 storm surge caused nearly $5 billion in water damage, much of which is still not repaired. In 2017, Hurricane Harvey gave Houston and the surrounding region a $125 billion lesson about the costs of misjudging the potential for floods. The climate change panel seems finally to have caught up with the gravity of the climate crisis. Last year, the organization detailed the extraordinary difficulty of limiting warming to 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius), over the next 80 years, and the grim consequences that will result even if that goal is met. More likely, a separate United Nations report concluded, we are headed for warming of at least 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit. That will come with almost unimaginable damage to economies and ecosystems. Unfortunately, this dose of reality arrives more than 30 years after human-caused climate change became a mainstream issue.

 Climate Protest at Berlin Airport Sparks Massive Police Operation - Passengers trying to reach Berlin's Tegel Airport on Sunday were hit with delays after police blocked roads and enacted tighter security controls in response to a climate protest. Around 50 members of the group "Am Boden Bleiben," which means "stay grounded" in German, gathered in the main entrance of Terminal A to hold a sit-in. Another 80 people held a protest further away from the terminal but still on airport grounds, a police spokesman said. The activists, many of whom were dressed in penguin costumes, held up signs urging people to think twice before traveling via airplane. Sunday's protest, however, was intended to be a symbolic act and not one that impeded travelers trying to catch their flights. "Our protest is aimed at the airline industry and politicians — not against individual passengers," the group's spokeswoman told news agency dpa. The demonstration had "no impact" on flights, according to an airport spokesman. Police also said the protesters stayed within the rules of not shouting over airport announcements or physically hindering passengers. Although flights were not delayed, travelers had to overcome considerable hurdles to reach the airport. As part of their security operation, police shut down the highway exit ramp leading to the airport, sparking a major traffic jam. Numerous passengers walked the remaining distance to the airport after leaving their stranded taxis on the road.

Money changes everything - Local activists working to head off catastrophic climate change are trying a new tactic: following the money. On Nov. 9, members from 350 Madison Climate Action Team marched into the Sauk Creek Chase Bank branch on Madison’s west side, sat down on the floor of the lobby and began calling out for divestment of fossil fuel infrastructure. The group singled out Chase Bank for financing the Canadian-based energy company Enbridge, which since 2015 has been working to increase the capacity of its largest pipeline running through the state, which transports diluted bitumen known as tar sands. “We are trying to stop the funding,” says protest organizer Julia Isaacs. “They call themselves a sustainable bank. They are trying to put solar panels on their banks but at the same time they are the number one funder of fossil fuel infrastructure including lending money to Enbridge to build this pipeline through Wisconsin. So that is why we are here.” About 20 minutes after the sit-in began, Chase staff shut down the bank, unlocking the front door only to turn away approaching customers. About 15 minutes later, Madison police arrived to arrest two protestors and cite three others for disorderly conduct, which carries a $439 fine. The bank then reopened. “The customers walking into Chase don’t realize that their money is being used to fund tar sands pipelines, so we want them to be aware and join us in telling Chase to stop funding tar sands pipelines,” says Isaacs. “A lot of people just don’t know this connection and we are trying to draw that very clearly.”

World's energy watchdog is undermining climate change battle, critics say - (Reuters) - A short walk from the Eiffel Tower, Fatih Birol oversees the world’s energy watchdog, whose analyses of fuel demand have long been viewed as the gold standard by government officials, energy executives and investors. But now, the Turkish economist and the International Energy Agency (IEA) he heads are facing mounting pressure from groups concerned about climate change – including investors, scientists and former United Nations diplomats - over the organisation’s widely watched annual outlook. The World Energy Outlook, due to be published Wednesday, shapes expectations among governments, companies and investors over the future use of coal, oil and gas. The critics say it underplays the speed at which the world could switch to renewable sources of energy. The result, they say, is to bolster the case for continued investment in fossil fuel companies, undermining the fight against climate change. “The IEA is effectively creating its own reality. They project ever-increasing demand for fossil fuels, which in turn justifies greater investments in supply, making it harder for the energy system to change,” said Andrew Logan, senior director of oil and gas at Ceres, a U.S. non-profit group that promotes environmentally-friendly business. Senior IEA officials say they share concerns over climate change but defend their organisation’s work, saying the criticism is based on a misunderstanding of what the World Energy Outlook intends to show. They say the goal of the publication is to help governments assess the likely consequences of existing energy policies, not forecast what the world’s energy system will look like decades into the future.

European Investment Bank to phase out fossil fuel financing - The European Investment Bank has agreed to phase out its multibillion-euro financing for fossil fuels within the next two years to become the world’s first ‘“climate bank”. The bank will end its financing of oil, gas, and coal projects after 2021, a policy that will make the EU’s lending arm the first multilateral lender to rule out financing for projects that contribute to the climate crisis. The decision to stem the flow of capital into fossil fuel projects has been welcomed by green groups as an important step towards the EU’s aim to be carbon-neutral by 2050. The EIB, the world’s largest multilateral financial institution, described its decision as a “quantum leap” in ambition. “Climate is the top issue on the political agenda of our time,” said the bank’s president, Werner Hoyer. “We will stop financing fossil fuels and launch the most ambitious climate investment strategy of any public financial institution anywhere.” The bank’s vice-president, Andrew McDowell, said the move was “an important first step – not the last step, but probably one of the most difficult.” Under its new policy, the bank will end all lending to fossil fuels within two years and align all funding decisions with the Paris climate accord. Energy projects applying for EIB funding will have to show they can produce one kilowatt hour of energy while emitting less than 250 grammes of carbon dioxide. The decision to prioritise renewable and efficient energy follows a policy promise by the incoming European commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, to turn the EIB into a “climate bank”, unlocking a potential €1tn in funds to help move Europe’s economy toward cleaner energy. Von der Leyen also wants the EU to raise its target of cutting emissions by at least 40% from 1990 levels by 2030 in support of plans to become the first climate-neutral continent by 2050. The EIB’s announcement comes a year later than hoped by climate campaigners but also limits approvals of new fossil fuel projects before 2021 to projects that are already under appraisal by the EIB. This could pose long-term problems for the gas industry, which has more than $200bn in liquefied natural gas projects planned over the next five years. Colin Roche, of Friends of the Earth Europe, called the decision “a significant victory” for the climate movement. “Finally, the world’s largest public bank has bowed to public pressure and recognised that funding for all fossil fuels must end – and now all other banks, public and private, must follow their lead,” he said.

'Beginning of the End of Climate-Wrecking Fossil Fuel Finance': World's Largest Public Bank Ditches Oil and Coal - Climate activists celebrated Thursday the decision of the European Investment Bank to stop funding most oil and coal projects by 2021, part of a bid to be the world's first "climate bank."The bank's board made the decision at a meeting on Thursday, CNBC reported. "Truly amazing win," tweeted environmentalist Bill McKibben.In a statement following the news, Friends of the Earth Europe fossil free campaigner Colin Roche said the bank's decision was a big one. "Today's decision is a significant victory for the climate movement," said Roche. "Finally, the world's largest public bank has bowed to public pressure and recognised that funding for all fossil fuels must end—and now all other banks, public and private must follow their lead."Nonetheless, Roche cautioned against complacency."But 2021 is still too late if we are to avoid the worst effects of climate breakdown, the EIB needs to reject any fossil fuel projects and close its loopholes for gas, and not wait till 2021," Roche said.As Common Dreams reported, a previous commitment from the bank would have ended fossil fuel projects by the end of 2020.According to Reuters, the new policy does not outright ban all fossil fuel projects, but makes most of them impossible under the new parameters:  Under the new policy, energy projects applying for EIB funding will need to show they can produce one kilowatt hour of energy while emitting less than 250 grams of carbon dioxide, a move which bans traditional gas-burning power plants. Gas projects are still possible, but would have to be based on what the bank called "new technologies," such as carbon capture and storage, combining heat and power generation or mixing in renewable gases with the fossil natural gas. "This is an important first step," EIB vice-president for energy Andrew McDowell toldthe BBC, "this is not the last step." The news was welcomed by climate advocacy group 350 Action. In a statement, the group's Germany campaigner Kate Cahoon called the decision "the beginning of the end of climate-wrecking fossil fuel finance" but warned there was still work to do. "The gas lobby has unfortunately managed to get Germany and the European Commission to insert some loopholes into the policy, which leave the door open for funding of dangerous fossil gas projects," said Cahoon. "They had better take note of the growing list of pipelines, terminals, and fracking wells that are scrapped thanks to local opposition and the unprecedented masses of people mobilizing for climate justice."

Utilities craft methane plan for gas supply chain -- — With an eye toward burnishing their green bona fides, U.S. investor-owned electric utilities early next year will propose a system of protocols to have their natural gas suppliers measure and disclose methane emissions.

Top energy CEOs defend carbon efforts, call for realism from campaigners - Energy titans are defending their efforts to secure a lower carbon future and are calling for environmental campaigners to remember how vital the current energy mix is to millions of people. Speaking on a CNBC-moderated panel Monday at the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition & Conference (Adipec), leaders of huge oil and gas firms offered a defiant voice on current efforts to reduce carbon. “I am alarmed when you hear things like extinction, crisis, emergency in some parts of the world,” outgoing CEO of BP, Bob Dudley told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick on Monday. “And then you spend time in some parts of the world, like I have in India, South East Asia, there is a different type of emergency where villages don’t have access to electricity and pumps don’t produce clean water.” Dudley said global energy needs are rapidly rising and a 30 to 40% energy capacity upgrade would be needed to accommodate the predicted additional 2 billion extra people on the planet by the year 2040. The 64-year-old, who is set to step down in early 2020, added that there was a lack of realism from environmentalists and lawmakers who want the energy industry to immediately stop carbon-emitting activity. “There’s just a lot of people, very well-meaning people, who want to believe that there is a simple solution,” said Dudley. The BP boss said natural gas, which emits roughly half of the carbon as coal to produce the same level of energy, needed to be a big part of the energy transition story. He said fast-developing technology to monitor gas leakage, such as satellite imagery and drone inspection, would soon help to reduce waste further.

Ocasio-Cortez: Exxon Mobil 'knew exactly what it was doing'  - Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) said that energy company Exxon Mobil knew about climate change in the 1970s at a speech given during Sen. Bernie Sanders's (I-Vt.) Iowa climate change summit. The freshman congresswoman then asserted that after the company found out about the effects of fossil fuels on the climate, it funneled resources into a campaign to sow seeds of doubt into public opinion. "Exxon Mobil knew exactly what it was doing and exactly what was going to happen in the 1970s," Ocasio-Cortez said. "What they did is that they had an inkling that carbon emissions could increase global temperatures to unsustainable levels ... due to the burning of fossil fuels. They knew this. They had that inkling," she added. "So they dumped tons of money in scientific studies in the 1970s." "We interviewed and we questioned the scientists ourselves. They had models going back decades," the progressive lawmaker continued. She then asked the crowd whether Exxon Mobil changed its models, changed its business or raised alarms. The crowd shouted back, "No." "They dumped millions of dollars into lobbying a campaign of doubt," Ocasio-Cortez said. "That is exactly why we have to acknowledge that the climate crisis is not an accident." "The reason we are in this crisis is because oil and gas has been one of the most profitable industries of the modern era," she added.

French oil major Total leaves refiner group over climate -- Total SA said today it would leave the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers because of the company's stance on climate change, as Total pushes publicly for a price on carbon and compliance with the Paris Agreement.

New Paper Reveals Rail Industry Was Leader in Climate Denial Efforts - A recent paper analyzing the major players in the organized efforts to attack climate change science and delay action had a surprising revelation — the biggest contributing industry/sector was not oil and gas but rail/steel/coal with the most active organization in the climate denial movement being the Association of American Railroads (AAR).In the paper, Networks of Opposition: A Structural Analysis of U.S. Climate Change Countermovement Coalitions 1989-2015,author Robert Brulle, looks at “key political coalitions that worked to oppose climate action. In conjunction with their allied trade associations, these coalitions have served as a central coordination mechanism in efforts opposed to mandatory limits on carbon emissions.”And the allied trade association that was most active was the AAR. Why would the rail industry care about climate change and be active in promoting denial? Coal.Coal has historically been the biggest business for U.S. rail, and still generates over 16% of Class 1 rail revenue in 2018, according to the AAR. Without coal the U.S. rail industry has a major revenue problem — which explains the decades of climate denial activity documented in this new paper.Of course, the U.S. coal industry is in serious decline despite all of the climate denialism funded by the rail and coal industries. Moody’s has estimated that the rail industry is facing a loss of $5 billion in coal revenues (from current levels of approximately $10 billion) by 2030. That reality hasn’t stopped the AAR from continuing to push coal while not acknowledging climate change. In a May 2019 publication on rail and coal, the AAR fails to mention climate change while also touting debunked ideas like “clean coal” as potential lifelines for the dying coal industry.

Elizabeth Warren’s new plan would jail lying fossil fuel executives -- Lying under oath is a crime known as perjury, but corporations lie all the time. On Tuesday, Senator Elizabeth Warren unveiled a plan to fight what she calls “corporate perjury.”Her proposal, which is part and parcel of her larger anti-corruption push, zeroes in on fossil fuel companies. Specifically, ExxonMobil — a company that is currently mired in lawsuits that allege it knew climate change was real in the 1980s and misled investors and the public about it. Several candidates have sworn to hold the fossil fuel industry accountable for fraud and corruption. But Warren is the first to release a proposal specifically aimed at stopping corporations from misleading the public and regulators in the future. The plan is three-pronged. First, Warren aims to create a “corporate perjury” law that will take executives to court for knowingly lying to federal agencies. You might assume such a law already exists, but you’d be wrong. People can be taken to court for lying in court, before Congress, or to their own shareholders, but the information they provide to federal agencies currently constitutes a weird gray area.Warren’s plan says that “where companies engage in egregious and intentional efforts to mislead agencies in an effort to prevent our government from understanding and acting on facts, they will face criminal liability.” Executives who engage in this type of behavior could have to pay $250,000 in fines or face jail time. In the second plank of her plan, Warren gets nerdy. Research that is not peer-reviewed — not evaluated by other experts in the same or a similar field — will not be eligible to be considered by federal agencies or courts. The same goes for industry-funded research. That is, it won’t be eligible unless whoever submitted it can prove that it’s free of conflicts of interest. “If any conflicts of interest exist, that research will be excluded from the rulemaking process and will be inadmissible in any subsequent court challenges,” the senator writes.

 Whither biomass? Michigan wood-fired power plants face uncertain future  - Wood-fired power plants across Michigan’s Lower Peninsula will continue operating through the 2020s, but their life beyond that is uncertain amid declining wind and solar prices. A September ruling by Michigan regulators created a competitive bidding process for one of the state’s largest utilities, Consumers Energy, that will force biomass producers to compete directly with wind and solar once their contracts expire over the coming decade. Consumers has argued in recent years that contracts with independent producers under the federal Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act (PURPA) are too expensive. This includes wood-fired power plants as well as small hydropower and waste-to-energy. Without policy support, plant operators in Michigan say they can’t compete with wind, solar and natural gas. While there appears to be opportunity for solar, owners of wood-fired power plants are less optimistic as they compete with declining renewable energy prices. Plant operators say their power is not adequately valued for its diversity and broader economic benefits, particularly for the timber industry.

Climate Curious: Is burning wood for heat carbon neutral?  - Wood — unlike oil, coal and natural gas — is not considered a fossil fuel. But decomposing trees do give off carbon dioxide, and so does burning firewood. University of Minnesota professor emeritus Jim Bowyer is an expert in the type of analysis that involves calculating the emissions of certain actions. And trees, he said, have a significant relationship with CO2, one of the greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change. "As a tree grows, it captures carbon dioxide from the air, water moves up the trunk. Water and carbon dioxide combine in the presence of sunlight, and in the leaves, the process of photosynthesis takes place," he said. As part of photosynthesis, trees take in carbon dioxide, release oxygen and produce sugars. “Those sugars move down the trunk of the tree. Those sugars are converted to wood," Bowyer said. Trees, of course, don't live forever. One way to lock in that carbon capture for the long term is by harvesting a tree for lumber before it decomposes and allowing new trees to grow it its place. But if a tree is left to die and decompose, Bowyer said, “the decay process is exactly the reverse of photosynthesis.” He explains: “Water is used by decay fungi, and as the fungi works on the wood, the wood is then converted back to carbon dioxide.” Burning that wood for heat speeds up the process, he said, but it's carbon neutral, as long as it's managed in a way that allows for new growth and new opportunities for carbon absorption. "Wood is a renewable resource, assuming that the forests that the wood is taken from are managed sustainably,” Bowyer said. But it wouldn’t be a good thing if all of us switched out our natural gas furnaces for wood furnaces. In urban areas, burning wood contributes other kinds of pollution that are harmful to people's health, especially the tiny particles in soot that can get into people's lungs.

Chapel Hill students lead campaign to reduce vehicles' carbon emissions - A group of local students are behind a new campaign to fight air pollution by reducing the amount of exhausts coming from idling vehicles. It all began last spring at Phillips Middle School when some students there learned about the environmental impact of idling vehicles. Malcolm Meyn, an eighth grader, and his “Green Team Club” members decided to build an awareness campaign after noticing idling cars and buses at his school. “A lot of parents are idling,” he said. “Because of the temperature and they want to have the radio going in the car.” He and other students created The Green Team Club, which aims to help students brainstorm and form a strategy to limit harmful vehicle emissions. “We thought an educational campaign for the community would be a great way for them to take action,” said Mary Parry, a parent who is in the club. They chose the slogan “Driving is Exhausting,” and it features a series of signs that now appear at every school in the Chapel Hill schools district. “There are different versions,”, she said. "With the back side, one is about health and one is about climate change." One health message is a reminder that “car exhaust is harmful and can make asthma worse.” Another says, “Idling gets you nowhere and fuels climate change.” Their larger message is on the club’s website and spread via social media. The sites spell out the invisible particles in vehicle emissions and the cumulative environmental impact that comes from driving vehicles.

How Whole Foods became ground zero in the charging wars -- — Whole Foods Market is known for its grass-fed beef, fancy cheeses and other expensive organic produce. But the commodity that some customers are really duking it out for are the electric vehicle charging stations in the parking lot. The problem is that, while Whole Foods generally can provide avocado ice cream whenever a customer wants it, the same isn't true for the car plugs. "I find that half the time it is booked," said Chris Wright, who stopped at a Whole Foods in Berkeley to charge his Volkswagen e-Golf after a trip with his family to Monterey. "I wish they made more of them in more places." Over a decade, Whole Foods has been a leader among U.S. retailers in offering more and better EV charging stations in its parking lots. Come for the electrons, the thinking goes, and spend more time and money at the salad bar. Unless — like at the store's outlets in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles, and in other cities like Boston and Chicago — there's not enough charging stations to go around. Chargers at these Whole Foods locations have backed up traffic and created all sorts of personal strife. It is a scenario that may repeat itself in other parts of the retail landscape as EVs arrive in greater numbers in the coming years. But few stations are as coveted, or contested, as those at Whole Foods. The website PlugShare, which crowdsources information on charging stations, is full of the comments that Whole Foods patrons mutter while they circle the parking lot in their EVs waiting for a charging space to open up: "Littered with Uber Lyft drivers in the evening blocking stations for those trying to get home." "I have to get to airport. Wish people were more courteous." "At 98 percent but she won't give it up. What's wrong with these people?" The problems are many: people waiting to pounce on a station about to open up, backing up traffic; people parking at chargers who have no business being there; drivers occupying plugs until their batteries are perfectly full, infuriating other drivers who desperately need the juice. And there's the ride-hail drivers, who descend on some urban Whole Foods stores because they're the only place to get a fast charge. Matching the demand for charging stations to the supply of electric cars, it turns out, is quite difficult.

The "Green" Illusion Continues: Tesla Crash Victim Can't Find Anyone To Recycle His Wrecked Car - It was just over a month ago that we reported on a Tesla accident in Austria that resulted in firefighters needing to use a special container to transport the remains of the vehicle and the battery at the scene of the accident. Now, the owner of the vehicle is having trouble finding someone who will properly recycle his wrecked car and its battery. It's been sitting in one place since the accident and Tyrol reports that "nobody wants to burn their fingers to dispose of the car with its unpredictable 600kg lithium ion battery". The owner, Dominik Freymuth, says he feels "abandoned by the manufacturer". Every morning he passes by the wreckage of his old vehicle, a stark reminder of being pulled out of his burning vehicle before it was charred to the ground, he says.  To try and get the car taken care of after the wreck, he reached out to Tesla's Austrian disposal partner ÖCAR Autoverwertungs. Tesla's website says "ÖCAR Automobile Recycling has a large network of authorized recycling and disposal partners fully licensed by the Department of the Environment."But ÖCAR reportedly has "no permission" to take over Tesla models, according to a spokeswoman for the company. She stated: "I can not give you any information because we have no authorization for Tesla."Many disposal companies don't want to deal with the Tesla batter, because its a "fire hazard" and because you "do not remember where the battery starts and where it stops" - especially after a wreck. Martin Klingler, waste disposal expert at the Schwaz environmental company DAKA, said (translated):"Such a large lithium battery can not be taken over by his company, since one does not even know the mix of dangerous substances inside them. The electric vehicle manufacturers kept the composition of their elixirs top secret so as not to lose their competitive edge. The liquid in which the accident car was cooled by the Walchsee is a dangerously poisonous brew,

Lithium producers hit by first big downturn of electric vehicle era - (Reuters) - The burgeoning lithium industry, which produces the powerhouse metal used to make electric vehicle (EV) batteries, has entered its first major downturn, an unwelcome bruising for investors eager to help combat climate change. Albemarle Corp (ALB.N), Tianqi Lithium Corp (002466.SZ) and others have been producing more lithium than automakers need. Global supply exceeds demand by about 5%, according to Canaccord data. That comes as electric vehicle sales in China - the world’s largest EV market - fell nearly a third in September amid sliding government subsidies, the third consecutive monthly decline, according to Jefferies. A global average of prices is down more than 50% since the start of 2018, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, a metals pricing provider that is hosting an EV supply chain conference this week in Los Angeles. “Current market conditions are challenging,” ... Despite the weak data, analysts and executives expect a rosy future when they look out 10 years.

Climate Will Be A Key Driver Of Asset Prices In The Months And Years Ahead - Morgan Stanley- In three weeks, the world's leaders will begin to gather in Madrid for the 25th United Nations Climate Change Conference. The intensity of the global climate strikes this year suggests that the proceedings will be scrutinized as never before. But the decisions made, or not made, will also have repercussions for global markets. We’re transitioning towards a lower carbon economy, albeit at a slower pace than needed to stay within a two degrees Celsius climate scenario (2DS). For companies that can build offshore wind installations, develop electric vehicles and manufacture renewable diesels, we see potential for material earnings growth. In Decarbonisation: The Race to Net Zero, we estimated that more than US$50 trillion of capital will need to be deployed into renewables, EVs, hydrogen, biofuels and carbon capture and storage over the next 30 years, putting US$3-10 trillion of EBIT up for grabs.Decarbonising electricity is the largest opportunity to reduce carbon emissions, with the power sector responsible for a quarter of global emissions. Strong renewables growth should be achievable given the significant improvements we've seen in solar and wind economics. But costs continue to constrain many other clean technologies, including battery storage, green hydrogen, CCS and biofuels.If governments are serious about halting climate change, some form of stimulus will be needed.Subsidies have already been key in industries like renewables. In the US, federal subsidies have helped to drive the transition to renewable energy, which rose from 14% of total power generation capacity in 2000 to 24% in 2018.One alternative is to make high-carbon incumbents prohibitively expensive. European regulation on CO2 emissions, together with city bans on diesel, has catalyzed investment by global OEMs into electric vehicles. While the transition will be costly for the autos industry, it’s hard to see another path towards achieving aggressive targets. Taxes should be another means of incentivizing investment in low-carbon technologies, but they remain ineffective. Even in Europe, where the carbon price has increased three-fold since the end of 2017, it remains far below the US$75 per tonne estimated by the IMF as necessary by 2030 to achieve a 2DS.

No Consensus on How to Bring Offshore Wind Power Ashore in NJ  -- The state yesterday began soliciting input on how to deliver power from offshore wind farms off the Jersey coast to customers, a dilemma that will get more complicated as the sector grows more critical to meeting New Jersey’s energy needs. For the short term, offshore wind developers will likely have relatively few problems hooking up with the electric grid, at least to achieve the Murphy administration’s goals of developing 3,500 megawatts of offshore wind capacity by 2030, according to offshore wind developers at a meeting held at the War Memorial in Trenton on Tuesday. Long term is another issue altogether, especially if the state opts to adopt a consultant’s projection that the state will need to nearly triple that goal and build up to 11,000 MW of offshore wind capacity by mid-century to achieve its target of 100% clean energy by then. If so, developers, consultants, and an executive from PJM Interconnection, the regional power grid, urged the state to begin assessing long-term projections of its own, and even of other states’ energy demands and profiles. “You need to start thinking about what is the ultimate build-out,’’ said Suzanne Glass, director of infrastructure planning for the PJM, the nation’s largest power grid, stretching from the Eastern Seaboard to Illinois.

Dominion Virginia plan for 1.5 GW new peaking capacity will lead to more gas plants, NGOs fear   -Dominion Energy Virginia is seeking up to 1,500 MW of new dispatachable peak capacity beginning in 2022, to replace generation retirements and to provide system balancing needs for the company's growing renewables fleet.  Environmental groups say the RFP aims to bring new gas-fired generation into the state, which is at odds with state policy targeting 100% carbon-free power by 2050. Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam, D, in September signed Executive Order 43 setting the state on a course to reach 30% renewables by 2030, along with the 2050 goal. Dominion says it is on track to meet the state's clean energy goals, but the need for additional generation was identified in recent Integrated Resource Plans. Proposals for new generation are due to the utility by Dec. 19.  Dominion's RFP is not a surprise: The utility has been signaling a need for new generation, and renewables advocates warned that would mean new gas-fired plants. Dominion, in a statement, said it is committed to reducing carbon emissions 55% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels and bringing more renewable energy to the grid. And the utility says it will have enough solar and wind energy in operation or development in Virginia by 2022 to power 750,000 homes. But the utility also points to multiple generating unit retirements this year, and says its 2019 Integrated Resource Plan Update includes scenarios where additional generating units are retired within the next six years.  "These new peaking units will be an essential partner to renewables by filling a need when solar and wind aren’t generating enough due to lack of sunlight and/or low wind speed," Dominion said. According to the Sierra Club, Dominion should be looking to renewable energy rather than considering more fossil fuels. “Dominion's own recent contracts show that sustainable and clean energy sources like wind and solar are less expensive than carbon-emitting fossil fuels like gas, and they should be seeking bids for affordable clean energy and not expensive dirty fossil fuels," Mary-Stuart Torbeck, senior organizer of the Sierra Club's Virginia Chapter, told Utility Dive.

 In search for cheaper, longer energy storage, mountain gravity could eventually top lithium-ion - Mountain gravity energy storage could be a viable way to store electricity for longer durations and at larger scales than lithium-ion battery storagecan, according to a study recently published in the academic journalEnergy.The idea of gravity as a form of storage is an example of ongoing research into additional storage options beyond lithium-ion batteries. Despite large cost reductions over the past several years, some experts still view lithium-ion systems as not economically-efficient enough at scale to fully back up the amount of renewable energy expected to come onto the grid due to states’ long-term clean energy goals. Using mountains for storage could be combined with hydropower and prove to be economically attractive for microgrids, islands and areas with high electricity costs, the study published by the Austrian scientific groupInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis​ (IIASA) said. The researchers propose that a motorized system similar to a ski lift could pull containers full of sand to a crane at the top of a mountain. The sand can then be sent back down the mountain propelled only by the force of gravity, generating electricity in the process.The basic concept is similar to a gravity storage technology proposed by the Swiss company Energy Vault, which recently received a greater than $100 million equity investment from SoftBank’s Vision Fund. That technology generates electricity through gravity by lowering concrete blocks in a tower. Lithium-ion battery storage is the fastest-growing storage type and utilities across the U.S. have procured battery storage as a way to back up intermittent renewable energy. But the length of time that they can deploy energy — typically four hours or shorter for — may not be long enough for the greater and greater amounts of solar and wind resources needed to come online to meet emissions reductions goals.

Chart: Which Countries Use The Most Electricity? | Statista - In 2017, global electricity consumption increased 2.5 percent to reahch 25,721 Twh. When it comes to consumption, China uses the most of any country at 25.9 percent, followed by the United States with 17.5 percent. On a per capita basis, the situation is different, however. According to the IEA Atlas of Energy, electricity consumption in Iceland was 54.4 megwatt hours per capita in 2017, the highest level of any country. That's primarily due to abundant natural resources that make electricity production affordable along with energy-intensive industries. The harsh and dark Icelandic climate also contributes to heavy demand for electricity. The situation is similar in Norway which comes second with 23.7 megawatt hours per capita. Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait follow due to considerable demand for air conditioning.

Air-conditioning the outside—really -- Qatar is both a country and a peninsula which juts out about 100 miles into the Persian Gulf. It is precisely this geography which makes it both one of the hottest and muggiest places on Earth. The average daily high in mid-summer is 108 degrees F (42 degrees C).With temperatures now exceeding those averages on a regular basis and nighttime temperatures hovering in the 90s in summer, Qatar has begun working on making the outside cooler.It had to come. As climate change continues to move temperatures up worldwide, those places that were already hot are getting hotter—and unlivable.  Workers on a U.S. military base in Qatar must now follow strict rest regimens so as not to endanger their well-being on hot days, the Washington Post reports.  Cooling units along walkways and outdoor seating areas in Qatar's cities make it possible for people to stroll or relax in the evening without danger of overheating. Qatar is also engineering ways to cool entire open-air stadiums to make them bearable for spectators.In my previous post I discussed how our ideas of progress are getting in the way of actual progress in human affairs. While Qatar may be making "progress" in cooling technology, I would not consider it a contribution to the overall progress of humankind. It is actually one more example of the limits we face. In the path-breaking study Limits to Growth the authors explain how those limits will unfold. Many people mistakenly believe that LTG makes the claim the world society will "run out" of resources. The way the authors anticipate that humans will run up against limits will actually be more complex. As society works to counteract the effects of climate change and other challenges, it will spend increasing amounts on mitigation—in this case, cooling.

Why some hydropower plants are worse for the climate than coal - According to a new study published in Environmental Science Technology, hundreds of active hydropower plants are making a worse impact on the climate than fossil fuels. Yup, you read that right: Hydropower, popularly seen as a green energy source — and a major clean energy source in a lot of emission-reduction plans — can release more greenhouse gases than coal- or oil-burning power plants, under certain conditions. Scientists have known for a while now that hydropower facilities release greenhouse gases — mostly methane, but also CO2 and nitrous oxide. But the way they’ve historically calculated a facility’s climate impact has obscured methane’s heat-trapping potency. The new study, which looks at data from thousands of hydropower plants to compare their long- and short-term climate impacts, found that hundreds of active facilities around the world are worse for the climate than coal. Setting up a hydropower facility means building a dam and creating a reservoir, often submerging plants and other organic matter in the process. Traditional calculations of hydropower’s environmental impact take this destruction into account. But as the drowned plants decompose, they release methane, which bubbles out of the reservoir and into the atmosphere. Ocko’s study was the first to take into account how these methane emissions change over time.Exactly how much methane is released varies widely depending on a wide range of factors, from temperature to precipitation to the depth of the pool — methane production can vary from year to year and even season to season. Ocko’s team was able to identify a few indicators that a hydropower facility plant would likely produce more greenhouse gases than others, such as a large surface-area-to-depth ratio of the reservoir and warmer temperatures. But it’s a lot more complicated than that, and each facility’s exact emissions profile — and the causes of that emissions profile — all vary, widely. None of this means that hydropower is “bad”: Some facilities have negative emissions, and some are more warming than fossil fuels in the short term but better in the long term (even as the opposite is also sometimes true). Since hydropower still has the potential to be a low-emissions power source, the most important thing is for planners to choose locations and design facilities with emissions in mind, so that the plants either minimize greenhouse gas emissions or divert them before they enter the atmosphere.

Nation’s largest utility in long-term deals to sell power (AP) — Most of the local companies that receive power generated by the Tennessee Valley Authority have signed long-term partnership agreements, but some larger customers still have not agreed to the 20-year deals, officials said Thursday. TVA President and CEO Jeff Lyash said during a Board of Directors meeting in Memphis that 85% of the 154 local companies that buy TVA power in the South have agreed to the new deals, which carry a 3.1% monthly rebate on wholesale power rates. The 20-year deals were rolled out this year. They’ll replace existing agreements of varying lengths, or follow expiring ones, TVA spokesman Scott Brooks said. TVA officials say many smaller utilities have agreed, as have larger ones, including Nashville Electric Service. But TVA’s biggest customer, Memphis, Light, Gas & Water, has not signed a long-term deal. The Memphis utility is exploring other power generation options, including alternate suppliers. Memphis has been a TVA customer for 85 years and represents about 10% of TVA’s revenue, Lyash said. Consultant reports provided to the Memphis utility have suggested it could save hundreds of millions of dollars per year than under its current agreement with TVA. The Memphis company has received reports discussing alternate power sources, including the MISO transmission system, which delivers power across 15 U.S. states and the Canadian province of Manitoba. A report by consultant The Brattle Group for the Friends of the Earth environmental organization said a local mix of gas and solar power and battery storage, combined with energy efficiency and other strategies, “would result in wholesale power supply costs substantially below the current TVA rate.”

Lawsuit accuses TVA of covering up leaks of toxic chemicals, demands medical program — A Roane County woman has filed a class-action lawsuit against the Tennessee Valley Authority and Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. after she says the 2008 coal ash spill contaminated and polluted the environment, and that TVA concealed leaks of toxic chemicals. Margie Delozier, the plaintiff in the suit, alleges the toxic chemicals from the spill polluted the groundwater and deposited coal ash dust onto her private property which had negative effects on her health, safety and welfare. The suit also alleges the spill caused a negative economic impact on a "county-wide scale that was enhanced by fraud and other conduct." The lawsuit accuses TVA of concealing new radiation and arsenic leaks and poisonous particulate matter that has been inhaled by Roane County citizens. The plaintiff is seeking damages in the form of sufficient funds to support medical monitoring program for residents who may have been exposed to the toxic chemicals, funds to pay for a blood test program, and monetary damages to compensate for "the loss of use and enjoyment of their properties caused by the Defendants' conduct." In addition, the suit seeks punitive damages "in an amount sufficient to deter the defendants' similar wrongful conduct in the future," and a mandatory testing protocol that would require TVA to test private properties for the presence of heavy metals.

Lawyer: Claxton residents, Bull Run workers eyeing lawsuits over alleged health effects - — A lawyer has confirmed he is taking on legal cases against the Tennessee Valley Authority regarding alleged health risks for people living near or working at the Bull Run Fossil Plant. The statement came from Jim Scott with Knoxville-based Market Street Law, in response to questions from The Oak Ridger. He said he represents roughly 10 people in the Claxton Community suing over various health issues allegedly caused by the plant. He said the cases involve “various conditions that range from very serious birth defects to lung, sinus issues and cancers.” He later also mentioned “skin problems.” He said these problems were discussed in TVA’s “internal literature” as resulting from coal ash exposure. When asked if the people filing suit against TVA are people who work at Bull Run or live nearby, he said “at this juncture I expect there to be a combination of the two” without explaining whether the roughly 10 people he said he represented included both. “Listen, I grew up in Oak Ridge. I am not an environmentalist or a tree-hugger. ... You can’t grow up in Oak Ridge and not be pro-energy, pro-business and government and everything like that, but sometimes when things aren’t done right, they cause some problems. DOE (the Department of Energy) does a great job of protecting people. TVA not so much,” he said. Scott declined to give his Claxton clients’ names. Scott said he has represented similar clients with coal ash health-related cases in the Roane County. He did not confirm the nature of those cases in the phone interview. However, The News Sentinel has stated Scott represented Michael McCarthy, the first worker to sue contractor Jacobs Engineering Group over health issues allegedly connected to handling coal ash in the 2008 coal ash spill at the TVA Kingston Fossil Plant. Lawsuits involving cleanup workers against Jacobs Engineering Group regarding its handling of that spill cleanup have attracted national media attention. Also, The News Sentinel stated Scott also represented landowners affected by the 2008 spill.

U.S. judge approves deal requiring Brunner Island owners to pay record $1M penalty for coal ash pollution - The owner of the Brunner Island Steam Electric Plant must pay a $1 million penalty to the state and set aside $100,000 for environmental restoration projects under a consent decree just approved by a federal judge. The accord okayed by U.S. Middle District Chief Judge Christopher C. Conner also sets requirements for the disposal of millions of tons of coal ash at the site along the Susquehanna River in York County and imposes strict monitoring to prevent ground and surface water contamination.   The deal was struck after months of negotiation between plant owner Talen Energy Corp., the state Department of Environmental Protection, the Lower Susquehanna Riverkeeper Association, the Waterkeeper Alliance, and PennEnvironment. The $1 million assessment Talen must pay to DEP is the largest coal ash pollution penalty in state history. It comes a year after Conner approved a separate agreement between Talen and the Sierra Club that requires Talen to stop burning coal at Brunner Island by the end of 2028. The plant is to shift completely to natural gas.  Among other things, the newly approved decree calls for strict environmental monitoring during the planned removal of 3.2 million tons of coal ash, a task that is to be completed by Dec. 31, 2031. Repairs also are required to a holding basin to prevent contamination seepage beyond the Brunner Island property.

Public hearing set for Duke's plan to create industrial landfill at Lake Julian  — Duke Energy wants to put an industrial landfill on the site of the Lake Julian power plant in Skyland. The Department of Environmental Quality will hold a public hearing next month to take public input on plan that would allow Duke to bury coal ash and other industrial waste on a 12.5-acre site that a Duke spokesperson said will eventually become a solar farm.  The draft solid waste permit seeks to ensure that coal ash is stored in a double-lined landfill away from surface water. The draft solid waste permit calls for the industrial landfill to be constructed with a system for collecting wastewater and requires routine monitoring to ensure the landfill is being properly maintained. Duke Energy Progress submitted a new permit application on June 17, 2019, to construct an onsite industrial landfill at the Asheville facility to hold coal ash removed from the onsite ash ponds. Under the draft solid waste permit, other wastes generated onsite would also be eligible for disposal in the landfill. The application requests approval to construct the 12.5-acre landfill and to operate it once the facility is constructed and approved by the N.C. Department of Environmental Quality’s Solid Waste Section.

Justice mining companies want UMW lawsuit over retiree benefits to be dismissed - — Coal companies owned by Gov. Jim Justice and his family are asking that a federal lawsuit filed by retired miners and their union be dismissed.Lawyers for the Justice mine companies filed a motion to dismiss last week in U.S. District Court for the Southern District of West Virginia.Four retired coal miners and the United Mine Workers union filed the lawsuit in August, charging that claiming coal companies owned by the Justice family failed to consistently pay health and pharmaceutical costs promised under a nationwide agreement.Named in the lawsuit were Justice Energy Co., Keystone Service Industries, Bluestone Coal and Southern Coal Corp.Lawyers for the companies filed a response on Nov. 5, contending the plaintiffs didn’t exhaust remedies that were available through arbitration.“Rather,” wrote lawyers for the Justice companies, “Plaintiffs attempt an end-run around these well-known mandatory requirements.”The Justice companies also contend the lawsuit doesn’t provide enough specifics about what health care expenses were not paid for the four miners. “The Complaint provides almost no detail as to which expenses were allegedly not paid and merely identifies them in summary categories,” the lawyers wrote.

Racist Ex-Convict Coal Baron Enters Presidential Race - Don Blankenship, a former coal baron and ex-convict whom President Donald Trump once spoke out against for being too extreme, said on Monday that he planned to run for president as a third-party candidate. The news, while bizarre, doesn’t mean much in terms of real campaign politics, given that he stands pretty much no chance of making any real ripples. But it does give us the opportunity to revisit Blankenship’s past electoral failure. Blankenship, who spent a year in prison in connection with 29 coal miners’ deaths, ran for a Senate seat in West Virginia in 2018. His campaign was rooted in anger (mostly related to his own past incarceration) and xenophobia. He called Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao, who was born in Taiwan and moved to the U.S. as a child, a “China person,” and he blasted out an ad claiming Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who is married to Chao, had been bribed by his “China family” into creating jobs for “China people” instead of Americans. When pressed about the ad, Blankenship rejected criticism by saying he could not have been racist by just mentioning Chinese people: “Races are Negro, white Caucasian, Hispanic, Asian. There’s no mention of a race.” His poll numbers began to surge, and he pulled to the front of the pack. Despite Blankenship calling himself “Trumpier than Trump,” the president exhorted followers to vote against Blankenship, reminding them of Roy Moore’s loss in the Alabama special election. It also didn’t help that Blankenship was found to have been responsible for a 2010 explosion that killed 29 coal miners in what was considered the worst mining disaster in 40 years. Blankenship was convicted of conspiring to violate federal mine safety standards in 2015 and spent a year in prison. He has maintained that federal regulators were actually to blame and that he was targeted for political reasons, appealing to the right-wing conspiracy theory crowd.

Bruce Mansfield plant starting to deactivate - The deactivation of the Bruce Mansfield coal-fired power plant in Beaver County began Thursday. The deactivation of the plant had originally been scheduled for 2021 by its owner, First Energy Solutions. But the company, which is going through a Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization, announced in the summer that the only remaining unit would be shut down in early November. That process, which will take months, began Thursday, a company spokeswoman confirmed. It will be complete by May 2020. But she declined to provide any other details. The first two units were deactivated earlier this year. It wasn't clear how many workers have been let go at Bruce Mansfield so far. There were about 250 employees at the plant at the most recent count. A FES spokeswoman declined to say how many workers remained, and that number could not be determined Thursday evening. A WARN notice with the Pennsylvania Department of Labor & Industry filed last month said the company would lay off 49 employees will be laid off between Feb. 14 and Feb. 28.

Woodhouse Colliery: First UK deep coal mine in decades to go ahead - Plans for the UK's first deep coal mine in decades will go ahead after the government decided not to intervene. West Cumbria Mining said the new mine - near the site of the former Haig Colliery in Whitehaven which shut in 1986 - would create 500 jobs. Cumbria county councillors gave it the go-ahead in March, but this sparked a number of objections, including a call for government scrutiny. However, ministers have now said the council should take the decision. Councillors have ratified their support for the plans. The Woodhouse Colliery would extract coking coal from the seabed off St Bees, with a processing plant on the former Marchon site at Kells. However, the plans have sparked controversy, with objectors - some of whom staged a sit-in on the floor of the council chamber - saying it would contribute to global warming. Tim Farron, the Liberal Democrat MP for Westmorland and Lonsdale, who asked for the "call-in" described the news as "a kick in the teeth in the fight to tackle climate change". He said: "Cumbria has so many renewable resources to provide energy - water, wind and solar - and we should most definitely not be taking the backwards step of opening a new coal mine." But Trudy Harrison, Conservative MP for Copeland welcomed what she described as "fantastic news". She said: "It is vital that this development goes ahead and I am pleased that common sense has prevailed. "Coking coal is essential for the steel industry and this has been rightly recognised." The last deep coal mine in the UK, Kellingley Colliery in North Yorkshire, closed in 2016.

India's economic woes hit coal imports, but crude oil soldiers on for now: Russell - (Reuters) - A sharp plunge in India’s electricity demand in October has been matched by falling coal imports, but weakness in vehicle sales and fuel demand hasn’t yet showed up in crude oil imports. Power demand in Asia’s third-largest economy slumped 13.2% in October from a year earlier, the steepest monthly decline in more than 12 years, according to government data. Coal imports fell to 14.7 million tonnes in October, the lowest since January and the third straight month of declines, according to vessel-tracking and port data compiled by Refinitiv. Imports were also down 16.9% from the 17.7 million tonnes recorded in October last year, a further sign that India’s coal demand is softening in the face of slower economic growth. It’s also not the case that imports are being replaced by higher domestic output. In fact the opposite is happening, with state-owned Coal India well behind its production target so far this fiscal year. The world’s largest coal mining company did manage to increase output in October from September’s six-year low, but the 39.35 million tonnes produced was still down 20.9% from the same month last year, according to data on the company’s website. In the first seven months of the fiscal year that started in April, Coal India has produced 280.36 million tonnes, down 8.5% from the same period last year. The weakness in both coal imports and domestic coal output is not only a reflection of slowing industrial power demand, but also of how renewable energy is making increasing inroads into India’s generation mix.

The $22 Trillion Market Keeping Coal Afloat -The global economy has been going through a remarkable period of growth especially due to China’s open-door policy since the late seventies. Also, other major Asian economies have contributed to what some analysts believe will become the ‘Asian Century’. The region is about to sign the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) treaty which is the largest free trade agreement in the world comprising 3.5 billion people and a combined GDP of $22.6 trillion. At the center lies Southeast Asia which is going through a rapid process of modernization and industrialization. The region is quickly becoming a manufacturing hub due to the low costs of labor and external factors such as the U.S.-China trade war. Two underlying factors of economic expansion are pushing energy consumption: a growing population and higher levels of welfare.Some of the region's massive energy demand is met by wind and solar power. Until 2040 renewables will triple. Despite the dramatic drop in prices of wind turbines and photovoltaic cells, Southeast Asia is set for a much dirtier future than some were hoping for. Approximately 100 GW of coal-fired power plants is planned of which 30 GW is already under construction. The region is a major market for coal producers due to the significant number of planned power plants. Asia in general accounts for 85 percent of the word's top 20 coal-producing countries of which Indonesia is the largest net exporter globally. However, the Asian country will be overtaken by Russia until 2040 due to rising domestic consumption, which will reduce exports.Beijing has taken an interest in Southeast Asia’s energy requirements because of rising consumption and the need for investments. Although China is the world’s largest investor in renewables, the country is also a big exporter of coal-fired power plants. The China Development Bank and China Export-Import Bank last year invested $25.6 billion in energy projects abroad of which a big share went to coal-fired power plants in countries such as Indonesia, Vietnam, and Malaysia.The IEA expects demand for coal in Southeast Asia to double to almost 400 million tons by 2040. Its estimate is 2.5 percent higher than two years ago. According to Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA’s director, “coal is rather resistant because it is affordable. It is really hard for Southeast Asian countries to move away from affordable coal immediately.”

U.S. lawmakers question why Centrus awarded federal uranium contract - (Reuters) - A bipartisan group of U.S. Representatives asked officials at the Energy Department on Wednesday how Centrus Energy Corp, a company whose chief recently served as deputy at the department, won a federal contract to demonstrate a production method for a new nuclear power plant fuel. The Department of Energy (DOE) issued a notice of intent in January to award a no-bid $115 million contract to Centrus to demonstrate by June 2022 production of a new fuel called high-assay low-enriched uranium, known as HALEU, which one day could be used in advanced nuclear reactors. “We are deeply concerned about the Department of Energy’s award to Centrus Energy Corporation to demonstrate a method of producing” HALEU, the lawmakers said in a letter to Energy Secretary Rick Perry. The letter, seen by Reuters, was also sent to Dan Brouillette, Trump’s nominee to replace Perry, who is stepping down next month. The lawmakers said they support the DOE’s research activities to speed advanced nuclear reactor development but “we have questions about how this contract was funded, why other companies were not allowed to compete for the award, and whether the need for HALEU in the near-term is well-supported.”

Plant Vogtle Expansion in the Spotlight: billion$ more at risk - -  Southern Alliance for Clean Energy - On the heels of public hearings before the Georgia Public Service Commission (PSC) onGeorgia Power’s controversial $2.2 billion rate increase request, the “Elephant in the Room” will be in the spotlight: the over budget, more than five year delayed Plant Vogtle nuclear expansion. The PSC will hold a hearing this Tuesday for Georgia Power witnesses to testify about the project’s status in the combined 20th/21st semi-annual Vogtle Construction Monitoring (VCM) proceeding.In the 19th VCM, approved last February, the Commission decided to combine the next two reporting periods, which SACE and others opposed, and as predicted, Georgia Power has since spent a lot on the mismanaged nuclear project. The Company is now asking for verification and approval of $1.248 billion in expenditures. And that’s just for Georgia Power’s 45.7% share of the costs incurred during the reporting period from July 2018 to June 2019 for the two new AP1000 reactors under construction at Plant Vogtle near Waynesboro, along the Savannah River. The continuing saga is like a broken record in each of these VCM proceedings, and it remains mostly the same upon reading Georgia Power’s report and the witnesses’ written testimony, which will be discussed before the Commission on Tuesday.The project (again) isn’t meeting the productivity goals and appears to be falling further behind schedule, but Georgia Power remains confident (again) that they will somehow have Unit 3 online by November 2021 and Unit 4 by November 2022. Remember, these reactors were supposed to both be operational by April 2017! And (again) Georgia Power provides itself an out, pointing (again) to a multitude of potential “challenges” in the months ahead that could impact the schedule and most importantly ultimate costs to the utility customers. Because of consistent delays and mismanagement, the currently-projected total cost of this project has more than doubled from the original $14.1 billion estimate to over $28 billion.

Nuclear plant climate change risk assessment, action plans needed: researchers | S&P Global Platts — Shorter-term risks from climate change for US nuclear power plants include events such as hurricanes, flooding, drought and wildfires, while longer-term risks include sea level rise, coastal erosion and associated siting concerns, a researcher said Tuesday."Our research depicts a global challenge with nuclear being one area of power generation that could be impacted by climate change, which means there should be a focus on adaptation and mitigation measures," Sarah Jordaan, assistant professor at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies, said in a phone call.Although some international agencies, including the International Atomic Energy Agency, are starting to publish studies on climate impacts to nuclear power plants, the researchers argue there should be a comprehensive standard for existing and new plants, Jordaan said.The biggest risks for US plants depend on the timescale being evaluated. Over the shorter term there are risks to nuclear plants from heat waves, wildfires, hurricanes, storm surges and floods, as well as longer-term risks, such as temperature increases, shoreline erosion and sea-level rise, according to the article.Wildfires forced evacuations of nonessential personnel at the San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station in California in 2014, the article said. Concerns over sea level rise also raise questions about where best to site new facilities, Jordaan said. Some nuclear power plants face challenging economics in the US, but will likely face challenges from climate change that could be even larger, she said.

Leak shuts down V.C. Summer nuclear plant - Dominion Energy has shut down the V.C. Summer nuclear reactor in Fairfield County after the utility found a “small leak’’ in the atomic power plant’s coolant system, a spokeswoman said Saturday afternoon. Leaking material has not escaped into the environment, the company said. Dominion didn’t have to shut down the reactor, but it chose to do so while it addresses the leak, spokeswoman Rhonda O’Banion said in an email. O’Banion said there is no danger to the public. The utility said plant operators had been monitoring a small leak for several weeks, before finally deciding to shutter the plant so the leak could be fixed. The company declined to say how long the power plant might be shut down, noting that when the unit will “return to service is market sensitive information.’’ “Operators at V. C. Summer Nuclear Station have been monitoring a very small leak in the reactor coolant system,’’ the company said. “This small leak is captured within the site’s containment building and is not going to the environment.’’ O’Banion said safety will “remain the number one focus as we work to mitigate this matter and foster our culture for continuous improvement.’’ Water is leaking, possibly from a valve, the company said. Nuclear safety watchdog Tom Clements said he’s concerned that the utility didn’t issue a notice to the public. A Facebook post mentioned the leak. Dominion confirmed the leak when The State contacted the company Saturday afternoon. “They should have notified the public,’’ Clements said, noting that a Nuclear Regulatory Commission report said the plant was not producing power Friday. “With nuclear plants, it is essential that there be full openness about safety related issues.’’

Nuclear plant leak is coming from pipe at SC power station. Safety regulators not worried -  A leak at the V.C Summer atomic power plant north of Columbia is occurring on the welding of a six-inch pipe that is losing one-fifth of a gallon of water every minute, according to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission.That isn’t much of a leak and it poses “little to no safety significance’’ as employees work to make repairs, NRC spokesman Joey Ledford said in an email Tuesday. Ledford said the leaking pipe is among hundreds in the nuclear reactor’s containment area.Atomic safety watchdog Tom Clements questioned last weekend why Dominion had not notified the public of the leak, saying atomic safety should not be taken lightly.  But Ledford said Dominion Energy didn’t have to tell the NRC because the leak wasn’t large enough to warrant a notice.  The company notified the NRC last week that it was shutting down the power plant while the water leak was being repaired. The leak sprang from the pipe several weeks ago, according to Dominion. It remains inside a containment area that separates the nuclear reactor from the outside environment. Ledford said Tuesday small leaks like the one in V.C. Summer’s reactor coolant system are not uncommon. The NRC declined to say when the plant would be running again.

Climate Change Is Breaking Open America’s Nuclear Tomb -During the Cold War, the United States nuked the Marshall Islands 67 times. After it finished nuking the islands, the Pentagon dropped biological weapons on the islands. Once the U.S. was finished, it scooped the irradiated and ruined soil from the islands, poured it into a crater left behind from a nuclear detonation, mixed it all with concrete, and covered the whole thing in a concrete dome. They called it “The Tomb.” According to a report from The Los Angeles Times, climate change is breaking that dome open. Rising sea levels and temperatures are cracking open The Tomb, threatening to spill nuclear waste into the Pacific Ocean.The Marshall Islands is a collection of 29 atolls across 1,156 islands. More than 50,000 people live on the islands. From 1946 to 1958, it was a proving ground for America’s nuclear arsenal. On March 1, 1954, the Pentagon conducted Castle Bravo and detonated a 15 megaton thermonuclear warhead over the Bikini Atoll. It was the largest nuclear weapon the U.S. ever detonated.The fallout from the explosion rained down on the people of the Marshall Islands.“It was only a matter of two or three years before women on the island started to give birth to things less than human,” a Marshall Islands woman told diplomats on a fact finding mission decades later. Birth defects are so common on the islands that the people have a number of words to describe them, among them marlins, devils, jellyfish children, and grape babies.The U.S. has largely dismissed its responsibility to the Marshall Islands. It relocated many of its people and claims the cost of relocation and installation of The Tomb at the Enewetak Atoll covers its liability. As sea levels and temperatures rise, however, the Tomb is cracking. As it cracks, water rushes over it, leaching out plutonium and dumping it into the sea.The U.S. has said The Tomb is now the Marshall Islands’ responsibility. “I’m like, how can it [the dome] be ours?” Hilda Heine, the president of the Republic of the Marshall Islands, told The Los Angeles Times. “We don’t want it. We didn’t build it. The garbage inside is not ours. It’s theirs.”

Iran starts key step in building second nuclear power plant: TV (Reuters) - Iran started pouring concrete on Sunday at its second nuclear power plant, a key step in building the facility with Russian help in the southern port of Bushehr, state television reported.“Nuclear power provides reliable electricity... and each power plant saves us 11 million barrels of oil or $660 million per year,” Ali Akbar Salehi, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, said in a televised ceremony. The United States plans to allow Russian, Chinese and European companies to continue work at Iranian nuclear facilities to make it harder for Iran to develop a nuclear weapon, two sources familiar with the matter said in late October.

Ohio lawmakers love home rule only when it benefits their constituents - cleveland.com - Ohio House Republicans can’t seem to understand, let alone respect, city and village home rule, although the Ohio Constitution has guaranteed it to Ohio voters since 1912.  In the last 20 years, the General Assembly has written a slew of laws forbidding cities and villages from taking care of problems residents want addressed. The fake Statehouse excuse: Because Ohio has more than 900 cities and villages, it’s just too hard for Statehouse lobbies – gun peddlers, frackers, etc. – to obey all those local ordinances. Funny thing is, the General Assembly didn’t seem to notice that “problem” until fat-cat lobbies (frackers, gun peddlers) made big donations to state legislators’ campaign committees. You could call that a “quid pro quo,” except Latin is a foreign language and using it might touch off Statehouse terror alerts. So far, the legislature has forbidden communities from regulating oil and gas drilling inside their boundaries; told cities and villages they can’t require residency of municipal employees – even if voters approve that; banned firearm regulation by cities and villages; and forced on cities and villages a state law to purportedly “streamline” collection of the municipal net profit tax (the municipal income tax on business profits). Cities and villages are challenging that tax-collection mandate in the state Supreme Court. In contrast, Ohio’s Republican-run legislature is solicitous of rural Ohio. Consider, for example, legislation (House Bill 401, Senate Bill 234) introduced this week. The two bills would give residents of townships a potential veto over wind energy projects if certain t’s are crossed and i’s dotted. The bills’ respective sponsors are state Rep. Bill Reineke, of Tiffin, and state Sen. Rob McColley, of northwest Ohio’s Napoleon. Both are Republicans. Ohio already has setback limits on wind projects, setbacks that have the effect of discouraging wind energy investment in Ohio. The bills that surfaced last week would make that worse. Meanwhile, Ohioans living in cities and villages would still be powerless to block, say, fracking in their neighborhoods or regulate firearm sales in their business districts. If that’s fair, water runs uphill.  The legislature’s tender regard for rural Ohio is something Ohioans witnessed this summer. In 2018, agribusiness lobbyists and legislators had stymied then-Gov. John Kasich’s bid to curb agricultural runoff in western Ohio because runoff helps pollute Lake Erie. Surprise, surprise, this summer’s algal bloom in Lake Erie “rated 7.3 on a severity index of 1-10,” cleveland.com’s Laura Johnston recently reported, “twice as severe" as 2018’s, whose index had been 3.6. And the General Assembly yammers on. Thanks, guys. Ohioans owe you.

New Ohio regulations reduce minimum spacing requirements for horizontal oil and gas wells – Lexology -The Ohio Department of Natural Resources – Division of Oil & Gas Resources Management (DOGRM) recently revised its rules governing spacing of horizontal oil and gas production wells. The new rules, which became effective on Oct. 10, 2019, will bring Ohio’s horizontal well spacing regulations in line with what accepted science and drilling data indicates is a more efficient and productive spacing for horizontal wells in Ohio.Under the prior version of Ohio Administrative Code §1501:9-1-04, which applied to both conventional and horizontal wells, any oil and gas production well drilled into a pool located at least 4,000 feet in depth must be set back at least 500 feet from the boundary of the leased tract or drilling unit. That prior version of the rule also required a spacing of at least 1,000 feet between wells producing from the same pool.  Effective Oct. 10, 2019, Ohio Administrative Code §1501:9-1-04 was revised to require only a 150 foot (+/- 10 percent) setback from the first and last “take points” of a horizontal well and the boundary of the drilling unit or subject tract. This change is consistent with industry practice of seeking a setback variance at the heel and toe of horizontal wells in order to more fully develop a drilling unit. Drilling data shows that well stimulation operations do not typically produce fractures that propagate more than 150 feet beyond the heel and toe of a typical Ohio shale well. Thus, the prior 500 foot setback requirement was excessive and left unproduced resources at the heel and toe of a well. The revised regulations also reduce the required setback between the boundary of the drilling unit and the other take points in the well from 500 feet to 400 feet (+/- 10 percent). Finally, the revised regulations now provide no minimum spacing between horizontal wells within a “subject tract” unless “adverse communication” occurs between the wells and the subject tract. Again, these setback reductions should help achieve more complete production of resources within a drilling unit. It is important to keep in mind that for purposes of these regulations, Ohio Rev. Code §1509.01 defines a “horizontal well” as an oil and gas production well that is drilled in a horizontal configuration in the Point Pleasant, Utica or Marcellus formations, and is stimulated. Consistent with the new rules, Ohio Administrative Code §1501:9-1-01 introduces new terms and definitions. Specifically, “adverse communication” is defined as “negative communication at an offset well that may include damage to production tubing, casing, or the wellhead, or sudden significant increased volume of brine from the subsequent hydraulic fracturing treatment of another well in the same subject tract.” Likewise, the term “take point” has been introduced and defined as “any point along a well bore where oil, gas, or oil and gas may be produced from a pool.”

Massive fire erupts after gas line explosion in Pepper Pike - When a gas line exploded early Friday in Pepper Pike, firefighters did not have to go far to battle it. The explosion and fire happened around 1 a.m. across the street from the fire station on Shaker Boulevard. When FOX 8 News crews arrived on scene, massive flames were shooting into the air. Dominion Gas was on scene by 1:30 a.m. They were able to get the gas turned off by around 3:30 a.m. A police officer on the scene told FOX 8 News that crews had working on a gas line in the area. It's unclear if crews were working when the explosion happened. Several nearby residents were evacuated and sent to the community center. FOX 8 spoke to some residents who said they heard an explosion. "I heard a loud noise and all of a sudden my bedroom light up," Patricia Finley said. "I couldn't figure out where it came from. I looked out the window and saw the woods were on fire." "At first I thought it was an earthquake because the house shook, the windows were shaking," she said. Police say power is out to about 500 homes. FirstEnergy is evaluating the outage, but right now it is not known when power will be restored. Roads in the area, including Gates Mills Blvd, east and west, from Lander to Brainard Circle, Shaker Blvd., east and west from Lander Rd. to Richmond Rd., and Brainard Rd. from Fairmount to S. Woodland, north and south were closed due to the fire and damage to roads and power lines.

Dominion Energy says pipeline isolated, shut after fire in Ohio (Reuters) - Dominion Energy Inc said on Friday that one of their pipelines in Pepper Pike, Ohio had been isolated after it exploded, shutting off the flow of gas. “As a precaution, crews are working to confirm the integrity of Dominion Energy mains and service lines in the area and check for potential migration of gas from the incident site,” the company said in an emailed statement. Pepper Pike firefighters isolated the damaged line, shutting off the flow of gas and making the scene safe at about 3:35 a.m., Dominion said. “There is no damage to anyone’s property and there are no injuries. They shut the gas line off to put the fire out,” a fireman from the Pepper Pike fire department said. While there were no injuries reported, the incident damaged the roadway on Shaker Boulevard, electric utility poles, power lines and some trees in the vicinity, Dominion said. The gas line explosion forced the evacuation of several residents and closure of some roads in Pepper Pike, according to several media reports.

Marcellus Shale natural gas royalty case moves to state Supreme Court - A four-year legal battle over the calculation of Marcellus Shale natural gas royalty payments is now in the hands of the state Supreme Court.The court on Oct. 30 agreed to decide whether tactics used by gas extractors to obtain leases fall under the Unfair Trade Practices and Consumer Protection Law and if antitrust remedies can be pursued under that statue.In the suit filed in 2015 in Bradford County on behalf of private landowners, then-Attorney General Kathleen G. Kane accused gas extractors of using deceptive, misleading and unfair tactics to obtain leases.She alleged property owners were promised certain amounts in royalties when they signed leases to allow drilling but received lower payments once the wells started producing.The suit followed an investigation sparked by property-owner protests, especially those in Bradford County, over low royalty payments.A farmer reported getting a $1.10 check in 2014 for gas taken from two well pads on his land in the Sayre area.“Nothing has really changed,” said Rex Kingsley who has six wells on his Bradford County properties. “They’re still taking large deductions,” he said.In fighting the suit, Chesapeake Energy Corp., Anadarko Petroleum Corp. and their affiliates claim the Unfair Trade Practices and Consumer Protection Law does not apply to the leases.  But Lycoming County Senior Judge Kenneth D. Brown, specially assigned in Bradford County, ruled it did.

Pennsylvania's gas politics churn as Trump embraces industry (AP) -- For a second time in three months, President Donald Trump is headed to Pennsylvania to promote his support for the natural gas industry, making clear that he sees his pro-industry policies as a boost to his chances of winning the battleground state. As some of his leading Democratic opponents are calling for a fracking ban, Trump has been eager to cut a contrast, touting his support for a sector he says brings economic benefits to rural pockets and jobs to construction union workers. But pipeline politics might not be so clear-cut. In the suburbs that might be key to his path to victory, Pennsylvania voters have shown a growing opposition to the drilling and massive pipelines required to move its product across the state. Candidates in state and local races are increasingly hardening their stances on the industry. National polling shows growing skepticism of fracking, the process used in extraction. While the issue is unlikely to be the one that turns a race already dominated by Trump's strong personality, a looming impeachment fight and accusations of racism, Trump's eagerness to promote the industry underscores his tight focus on shoring up his base of rural voters, even at the risk of alienating others. On Wednesday, Trump will speak to a conference in Pittsburgh, a corporate hub of activity in the Marcellus Shale, the nation's most prolific natural gas reservoir. Going to the Pittsburgh conference gives Trump the ability to pitch to an industry and a region -- western Pennsylvania, eastern Ohio and West Virginia -- that help make up "what some would call his base," said Dave Spigelmyer, president of the Marcellus Shale Coalition, a trade group that's co-sponsoring the event.

Gov. Wolf Disagrees With Mayor Peduto On Fracking Ban -Pennsylvania Governor Tom Wolf is the latest to take exception to Pittsburgh Mayor Bill Peduto's call for no more natural gas cracker plants in the region. The governor told Larry and john Tuesday morning the mayor is wrong on this one. “I do disagree with him on this, I think we need to have the products, the light-weight products that will be part of that energy-sustainable future, they’re coming out of that cracker plant,” said Wolf. The governor said he's opposed to a so-called fracking ban proposed by some Democratic presidential candidates like Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. Wolf isn’t taking them too seriously. “I think you have to say different things to get the nomination and no one really knows what that means, ban fracking, I’m not even sure if a president can do that.” ___

Pa. Senator Pat Toomey Pressing For Passage Of A Measure That Would Keep Presidents From Banning Fracking – CBS Pittsburgh (AP) – Republican U.S. Sen. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania is seeking passage of a measure that’s squarely aimed at several Democratic presidential candidates and designed to prevent a president from banning hydraulic fracturing. Toomey said Friday his new resolution makes it clear that Congress believes a president doesn’t have the authority to ban hydraulic fracturing, or fracking. Toomey’s resolution is in response to an all-out prohibition on the controversial natural gas extraction process that’s backed by two leading Democratic presidential candidates, Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. The prospect of banning fracking is dividing Democrats and their traditional allies in organized labor in what’s shaping up as a premier battleground state in next year’s presidential election. Pennsylvania is also the nation’s No. 2 natural gas state, behind Texas.

New Ethane Cracker Factories Raise Climate Change And Pollution Concerns -- Plastic is not just a problem for overwhelmed landfills or the marine life that ingest it. Plastic is also a huge contributor to carbon emissions, climate change and toxic pollution. But if some of the large petrochemical companies have their way, plastic production will increase dramatically in the coming years. Cradle to grave, plastic could produce as much as 56 gigatons of carbon dioxide between now and 2050, according to a recent study — 50 times more than all the coal-fired power plants in the United States produce in a year.. Part of the reason plastic is so carbon-intensive is that it is made from fossil fuels. Historically, the building block of plastic was oil, but today it’s increasingly made from ethane, a component of natural gas.Ethane gets vented into the atmosphere primarily at hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”) sites, said Judith Enck, founder of Beyond Plastics and a visiting professor at Bennington College. A number of petrochemical companies, including Shell, Exxon and BP, want to capture this ethane and send it by pipeline to new plastic production factories called ethane crackers. In these factories, ethane is heated to an extremely high temperature, which breaks apart the molecular bonds holding it together (hence, “cracking”), creating ethylene, Enck explains. In this form, it becomes a building block of plastic packaging.“Because fracking has made natural gas so cheap, it’s driving a massive expansion in new infrastructure for plastics and petrochemicals. …“Creating new plastics from cracking ethane will also discourage companies from using recycled plastic in their products because the virgin plastic will be cheaper.”Petrochemical companies know that fossil fuel demand for use in electricity generation and transportation will drop in the coming years, so they are “making a big-money bet shifting to plastic production,” Enck said. “They are counting on the world wanting more and cheaper single-use plastic packaging.”These plans run counter to the growing trend in the US and other countries to do away with single-use plastic, including bans on plastic bags and plastic straws.

To crack or not to crack: the regional climate change battle is joined | Pittsburgh Post-Gazette - After Mayor Bill Peduto declared his strong opposition to additional petrochemical facilities like the Royal Dutch Shell ethane cracking plant in Potter, Beaver County, the reaction was swift. He was lauded for displaying climate change courage, lambasted for perceived insults to workers and criticized by political ally Rich Fitzgerald, among others. At the Climate Action Summit in Pittsburgh Oct. 30, Mr. Peduto decried tying the region’s economic future to shale gas development, and was also critical of area’s industrial culture for failing to aggressively combat climate change. While Mr. Peduto’s comments were greeted by cheers at the summit and from environmental organizations, the anguished reaction from some of the region’s political and business leaders made it clear that the old jobs-versus-the-environment debate has ramped up in the face of ever-more-certain scientific predictions of climate catastrophes and the potent but fragile economics of the region’s shale gas operations. Industry, labor, county economic development organizations, the state Chamber of Commerce and elected officials lamented that such negative talk could cost jobs in the petrochemical, shale gas, engineering, legal, geology, hotel-motel and restaurant industries. Allegheny County Executive Rich Fitzgerald, a long-time proponent of natural gas development, was critical of his fellow Democrat and frequent political cohort for his opposition to additional petrochemical development. In an Oct. 31 interview on KDKA radio, Mr. Fitzgerald said the Shell cracker facility, which will turn the region’s shale ethane gas into plastic pellets used to make a variety of plastic products, has created $7 billion of wealth to the region, along with full employment in the building trades. He added that an abundance of shale gas has resulted in a 70% reduction in home heating costs at an average savings of $1,200 per household. “We’re at the beginning of how to capitalize on this,” Mr. Fitzgerald said, while also voicing support for additional cracker plants. He said the city shouldn’t be telling people in Greene, Washington, Beaver and Butler counties “how to live,” but allowed that he wouldn’t support a cracker plant in Lawrenceville.

FBI Investigating How Pennsylvania Governor Tom Wolf Approved Natural Gas Pipeline – (AP) – The FBI is investigating how Gov. Tom Wolf’s administration came to issue permits for construction on a multibillion-dollar pipeline to carry natural gas liquids across Pennsylvania, The Associated Press has learned. FBI agents have interviewed current or former state employees in recent weeks about the Mariner East pipelines, according to three people who have direct knowledge of the agents’ questions. All three spoke on condition of anonymity. When permits were approved in 2017, environmental advocacy groups accused Wolf’s administration of pushing through incomplete permits that violated the law. Wolf’s administration is declining comment. It has said in the past that the permits contained strong environmental protections and it denied forcing the Department of Environmental Protection to issue them. The chief federal prosecutor in Harrisburg, U.S. Attorney David Freed, declined comment.

Wolf says he’s unaware of any wrongdoing in Mariner East pipeline permitting process — Gov. Tom Wolf said he was surprised when, late Tuesday evening, he began hearing reports that the FBI is conducting a corruption investigation into the permits his administration issued for construction of a major natural gas pipeline.Wolf, a Democrat, addressed the situation for the first time Wednesday afternoon, saying he is not aware of any wrongdoing.According to the Associated Press, the FBI has been interviewing current or former Wolf administration employees about the permitting process for the Mariner East 2 project. The multibillion-dollar pipeline began operating last year, and carries natural gas liquids from Marcellus Shale fields in Ohio and western Pennsylvania to an export terminal near Philadelphia.  The AP says the FBI is trying to determine whether Wolf or his administration tried to force the Department of Environmental Protection to approve construction permits, and whether Wolf or his administration received anything in return for doing so. Greg Vitali, a Democratic Representative from Delaware County and vocal pipeline critic, said he doesn’t have firsthand knowledge about the FBI probe, but has heard rumors regarding the permits.“I was generally aware that people felt DEP came under some pressure to get these permits,” he said. The Mariner East 2 project has been plagued by sinkholes and drilling mud spills. Regulators halted construction multiple times, and Sunoco has been repeatedly fined.Wolf said he willingly called for those shutdowns, but added that he supports the pipeline on principle.“As long as they follow the rules that are in place, I think they should be allowed to proceed with their project,” he said.Vitali said he is less sure that the rules have all been followed.“I think questions have been raised with regard to the speed at which that was approved and the process by which it was approved that really justify inquiry,” he said. “I can say that with confidence.” Counting the reported FBI probe, the Mariner East project is now the subject of three criminal investigations.

Rep. Keller touts Williams partnership - Congressman Fred Keller, R-Pa., heard from representatives of Williams Energy last week during a stop in Wyoming County, also taking an opportunity afterwards to visit a natural gas compressor station. At the Williams headquarters in Tunkhannock on Wednesday (Nov. 6), Keller participated in a closed door meeting with Williams employees, who shared their desire for him to continue advocating for pro-energy legislation in Washington, D.C. In Washington, Keller said he plans to become a co-sponsor of H.R. 3893, which Congressman Bill Flores, R-Texas, introduced in July “to provide for federal and state agency coordination in the approval of certain authorizations under the Natural Gas Act, and for other purposes.” Employees spoke to Keller about the importance of such policies that support the development of energy industries and allow companies like Williams to achieve. While certain industry regulations remain necessary, Keller said he aims to make sure they don’t become “over-burdensome and impede development.”

PennEast appeals pipeline rejection to Supreme Court - (AP) — A gas company whose bid to build a 120-mile natural gas pipeline through parts of Pennsylvania and New Jersey was rejected in court says it will appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court. The PennEast Pipeline Company said Thursday it would file its appeal by a February deadline. In September, a federal appeals court in Philadelphia sided with New Jersey officials who argued the company can't use eminent domain to acquire state-owned properties that are preserved for farmland or open space. The judges wrote that the ruling could change how the natural gas industry operates.In a statement Thursday, PennEast said the ruling disregarded Congress’s intent when it enacted laws governing natural gas. It said delayed pipeline construction in several states has forced small businesses to close and disrupted major development projects. “No interstate pipeline nationwide of any significant length can be built without crossing land were a state claims an interest,” said Anthony Cox, Chairman of the PennEast Pipeline Board of Managers, on Thursday. In addition, when the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approved the current route for the pipeline, commission members understood that it crosses properties in which New Jersey claims and interest, Cox said. Pipeline opponents said Thursday that PennEast officials are “trying to do whatever they can” to push the pipeline through.

 U.S., Philadelphia officials object to PES refinery sale process (Reuters) - U.S. and local officials are opposing the sale procedure for the bankrupt Philadelphia Energy Solutions oil refinery, arguing the plan discourages bidders and keeps the city locked out of the process, according to federal court filings. The proposed PES sale plan does not give potential buyers of the fire-damaged refinery enough time or information to outbid a stalking-horse bid chosen by PES, U.S. Trustee Andrew Vara argued in a filing with the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Delaware on Thursday. Companies often select what is known as a stalking horse to start an asset sale. Other parties then submit bids, which, if for more money or better for some other reason, would win out. PES’s proposal sets a stalking-horse deadline one day before final bids are due, which “will create confusion, delay and may tend to discourage bidders” who might not know what they are attempting to outbid, said Vara, who is appointed to oversee the bankruptcy case. The city of Philadelphia, which is a creditor in the bankruptcy case and a regulator of the refinery, also objected to the sale process in a filing with the court on Thursday. It is asking PES to disclose the identities of qualified bidders and allow the city to attend the refinery auction, which it would be excluded from under the current plan, Philadelphia’s deputy city solicitor, Megan Harper, said in the objection.

City and union officials to consult on Philadelphia refinery sale process -U.S. court (Reuters) - A U.S. bankruptcy judge on Thursday approved a process for the sale of the Philadelphia Energy Solutions oil refinery, the largest and oldest on East Coast, under which city officials and a trade union will consult on the matter. The plan resolves earlier objections by giving the United Steelworkers union and Philadelphia city officials access to the identities of bidders and, in some cases, the ability to speak with potential buyers, according to the order signed by Judge Kevin Gross of the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware. An auction date for the PES refinery was set for Jan. 17 in New York. PES collapsed into bankruptcy on July 21 and put its 335,000 barrel-per-day refinery up for sale after a fire tore through an alkylation unit at the Girard Point section of the plant a month earlier. Most of the 1,100 PES workers, including more than 600 members of the United Steelworkers local union, were laid off without severance or benefits. About a dozen parties have shown interest in buying the plant, pitching various uses for the facility, including a biofuels operation and restoring the oil refinery back to its full capacity. The city, community activists and workers advocates have called for more transparency in the sale process of the fire-damaged plant, which could require city-issued zoning and other permits for approval. Gross on Thursday also signed off on an additional $35 million in debtor-in-possession financing for PES, giving the refiner more time to pay legal fees and other bills as it fights for insurance coverage tied to the fire. PES has already received $65 million in bankruptcy financing and a $50 million advance on future insurance proceeds. However, it has been unable to receive any of the $1.25 billion in property damage and business interruption insurance coverage.

National Grid to use trucked LNG, CNG in peak US Northeast winter gas demand periods — Facing a potential shortfall in natural gas supplies due to certain factors, including regulatory holdups of a key interstate pipeline project, gas utility National Grid is planning to use trucked shipments to ensure supplies to customers in New York and New England during the coldest parts of winter. The Rhode Island Energy Facility Siting Board on November 6 approved the utility company's request for a temporary waiver from the licensing requirement of the Energy Facility Siting Act to operate a temporary LNG vaporization facility on a site in Portsmouth, Rhode Island, which National Grid had previously used for that purpose. The plans call for National Grid to truck in LNG to the site, where it will be vaporized and injected into the local gas distribution system to provide an emergency backup gas supply to Aquidneck Island. The project will only be on the site from December 1 through March 31 and will only be mobilized when it is required to back up the gas supply to the island, the utility said in its waiver request. National Grid has announced similar plans to truck in compressed natural gas to serve as backup supplies of gas during peak usage periods in New York state. The utility contends it needs to take those steps to ensure New York customers have adequate access to supplies because of state regulators in New York and New Jersey having slowed the progress of the 37-mile Northeast Supply Enhancement project, which is designed to bring 400 MMcf/d of incremental gas supply into New York City and Long Island. "We've been waiting for the approvals for the NESE supply line," "We've got a shortfall in peak-hour supply; we're short approximately 21 Dt/hour at the peak." .

Cuomo Threatens National Grid: Provide Gas or Lose Your License - Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo and a utility that provides gas to New York City and Long Island have been locked in a standoff since May, when New York regulators blocked the construction of a $1 billion natural gas pipeline that would have run from Pennsylvania to New Jersey and New York. The utility, National Grid, says the pipeline is crucial to meeting the rising energy demand in the region and has imposed a moratorium, refusing to activate gas hookups for both new and returning customers. On Tuesday, the fight took a sharp turn after Mr. Cuomo threatened to revoke National Grid’s license to operate in the southern part of New York. Mr. Cuomo, in a letter, accused the utility of “mishandling” its gas supply system and recklessly disregarding its obligations as a public utility when it issued the moratorium.  The utility’s fundamental legal obligation “was to plan and provide for future needs,” the governor wrote. “You failed by your own admission.” National Grid, which supplies gas to 1.8 million customers in New York City and on Long Island, said it would review Mr. Cuomo’s letter and respond accordingly. “We continue to work with all parties on these critical natural gas supply issues on behalf of all our customers in downstate New York,” the utility said in a statement. The moratorium has left some people in Brooklyn, Queens and Long Island in flux. Developers have been unable to provide gas to new buildings, business owners cannot obtain requested upgrades and homeowners have had to fight to get suspended gas service restored. “At this point, a number of projects are in limbo because of uncertainty over the energy supply,” said Kathryn S. Wylde, the president of the Partnership for New York City, an influential business group.

National Grid pushed officials to write letters for pipeline - — A renewable energy watchdog group is calling foul over National Grid's efforts to get local government officials to support a new natural gas pipeline that would be built under the Hudson River between Bethlehem and East Greenbush. The so-called E37 pipeline, which has been opposed until now by both Bethlehem and East Greenbush, would close a loop in the local natural gas transmission network owned by National Grid, another reason why the project is also known as the "Albany Loop." However, the watchdog group Energy and Policy Institute, which supports renewable energy development, says that National Grid has been employing public officials from around the Capital Region to support the project using "customized" form letters to the state Public Service Commission, which must approve the project. Environmental groups opposed to hydrofracked natural gas and pushing for the state to reduce the consumption of fossil fuels opposed the E37 pipeline and any other new natural gas infrastructure being built in New York. Revelations of the public affairs campaign by National Grid comes amid a fight between the utility and Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who has vowed to take away National Grid's license to operate its natural gas system in New York City and Long Island. That fight came after National Grid stopped hooking up new gas customers downstate after the Cuomo administration blocked an interstate gas pipeline from being built to New York City.

Compressor station project gets final state approval -  Weymouth lost a key battle in a years-long war against a proposed 7,700-horsepower natural gas compressor station Tuesday as state regulators gave the project the green light in the final step of the state approval process. The Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management on Tuesday issued its decision that the project is consistent with the federal Coastal Zone Management Act. That approval is the last of four that the project needs, and has received, from the state. Mayor Robert Hedlund said he is “very disappointed” in the approval, particularly because it was issued despite recent changes “dramatically reducing” the demand for gas and need for the project. Hedlund sent a letter to Lisa Berry Engler, director of the state Office of Coastal Zone Management, last week saying that the justification for allowing a compressor station in a coastal zone was “already factually tenuous and, in the town’s view, legally inadequate,” but new information about natural gas capacity and demand warranted further review from the state. The compressor station proposal is part of Enbridge’s Atlantic Bridge project, which would expand the Houston company’s pipelines from New Jersey into Canada. Hedlund said two companies that had signed on to ship natural gas made available through the Atlantic Bridge project have withdrawn and assigned their rights to the gas to National Grid. But National Grid has stated it does not need the compressor station to deliver the gas. Several other project shippers have said the compressor station is not necessary for their use of the increased capacity, he said. “While government is approving the project, the market is telling us it is no longer needed. By the time all permits and appeals are done, few will actually buy the natural gas,” Hedlund said Tuesday. “We will end up with a $100 million white elephant on the Fore River waterfront whose costs will then be passed on to ratepayers.”

Mayors testify in support of legislation that would improve gas safety in Bay State – - Fourteen months after a series of gas-fueled explosions and fires rocked the Merrimack Valley, the New England Gas Workers Alliance, along with prominent Bay State mayors, flocked to Beacon Hill on Tuesday to testify in support of legislation that would improve gas safety in Massachusetts. For some who live in Lawrence, Andover, and North Andover, the horrid memories of Sept. 13, 2018, still bring them to tears. “Our city, our kids, our youth. They’re still traumatized,” Lawrence resident Ana Javier told lawmakers. National Transportation Safety Board investigators pinned the blame for the disaster on Columbia Gas, citing their poorly planned pipeline replacement project and inadequate response to dozens of fires that were sparked by excessive pressure in natural gas lines. On Tuesday, lawmakers heard testimony on several bills focused on oversight and safety. “No one has been fined. Not one fine has been levied against Columbia Gas,” Lawrence Mayor Dan Rivera said. “Not one person has lost their job at Columbia Gas.”

Strong Gas Odor Continues To Linger In Delaware County After 2 Separate Incidents – CBS Philly  — It’s the question on the minds of many Delaware County residents — what’s that smell? A gas leak near an apartment complex Monday night led to a strong odor in the air. There was also a strong odor of gas along the I-95 Corridor and Chester Pike. Emergency officials say these are two separate incidents. While always busy, the Delaware County 911 Center wasn’t bombarded on Tuesday, 24 hours after hundreds of calls rolled in for a gas-like odor across the county. “Delaware County’s trying to figure out what this odor — this smell’s been permeating the county the last couple of weeks. It’s definitely concerning but we’re no closer to figuring out what it is,” Emergency Management Director Tim Boyce said. Separate from the widespread gas odor that has now happened twice in three weeks, a valve on Monday night malfunctioned on an eight-inch gasoline transmission line. A handful of first responders were even sickened from what emergency officials say was a significant discharge. Most of the tenants at the Turnbridge Apartments left because the smell was so powerful. “I started packing up a bag, came downstairs hoping to get a clear answer. The ambulances showed up, some of the fire department seemed to be a little sick so that made me want to leave,” resident Emily Franquet said. While not directly connected to the Mariner East pipelines, the gasoline discharge incident has renewed fears for those living along the controversial energy project.On Tuesday, the Associated Press reported the FBI is reviewing how Mariner East Two was granted permits by the state’s environmental protection department. Meanwhile, some here in Middletown Township say they’ve had enough. “It’s frightening because we don’t have any answers,” resident Kathy McGuire said. “It’s a very strong smell.”

Delco officials raise stink over odors, leak, launch criminal probe — Unable to determine the cause of two widespread noxious odors within three weeks and dissatisfied with the method of notification regarding a gasoline leak from pipeline, Delaware County's top Emergency Services official called for a criminal investigation. "I really think a criminal investigation needs to begin because someone is willfully doing this," Delaware County Emergency Services Director Timothy Boyce said of the odor incidents. "We're not able to determine the source of the product release ... It's not impossible that somebody's trying to dump chemicals. We're not taking this lightly." He explained that Chester has been dealing with the odors of gas all summer long in which county hazardous materials teams would respond but the source was not able to be located. On Oct. 25, the county's 911 Center received calls from first responders and residents in the area of Chester Heights, Aston and Concordville of an unidentifiable odor that smelled like gasoline or home heating oil. Then, calls from Broomall, Newtown Square, Media and Springfield were received. Some callers reported sore throats and headaches. Some businesses closed and the Chester Charter School dismissed early. On Monday morning, another foul-smelling odor was reported along Route 291 in Ridley and then it wafted over Chester, Eddystone, Ridley Park and Glenolden. Boyce said Boeing was prepared to evacuate their entire campus but did not. Monday evening, several residents called reporting a smell of gasoline in the Middletown area near the Tunbridge Apartments. Boyce said when first responders arrived, two workers became nauseous as they discovered contractors tending to a leak from a Sunoco pipeline valve station.

Preston High School seniors take part in free oil and natural gas course – Seniors at Preston High School participated in a free oil and natural gas training class Wednesday, right in their school. It’s part of the West Virginia University Extension Service’s IADC Rig Pass SafeLandUSA course, which certifies participants with safety and health hazard training program before they even hit the workforce. In addition, students will receive training in first-aid/CPR training and receive ATV training. The program is available to up to 400 seniors and takes eight hours. Seniors Arrington Bucklew and Chase Laughry said they considered the training to be significant to their futures. Laughry said he had not considered a career in oil and natural gas but that he had become really interested after the training began. He said he hopes to make something out of the learning opportunity. “It’s very significant, it’s going to make an impact on my whole life, it’s going to help me get a job out of high school, make a living and hopefully start a family,” Laughry said.

Valley Activists Aid Mountain Valley Pipeline Opponents | WMRA and WEMC (podcast, transcript)  The proposed Mountain Valley and Atlantic Coast pipelines are slated to carry natural gas from West Virginia through Virginia, and in the case of the Atlantic Coast pipeline, on into North Carolina. Even as construction has been halted or limited by legal challenges, opposition to those projects remains strong among some residents. WMRA’s Randi B. Hagi reports. Listen Listening...5:16   Attendees discuss the Mountain Valley and Atlantic Coast pipelines, and FERC's role in their construction.  A small crowd gathered in a chapel on the grounds of Trinity Episcopal Church in Staunton on one October afternoon. They sang, not hymns, but protest songs. [singing] The event was hosted by the organization Beyond Extreme Energy, a network of activists that aims to raise awareness about the impacts of hydrofracking and other practices by fossil fuel industries. They came to Staunton as part of a “roadshow,” promoting their campaign to dissolve the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, or FERC, and set up a Federal Renewable Energy Commission in its place. FERC is responsible for approving interstate infrastructure that transmits natural gas, oil, and electricity.

Senior advisor to lawmakers: Gov. Cooper's office didn't meddle in DEQ permitting of Atlantic Coast Pipeline - Skepticism about the economic promises of the Atlantic Coast Pipeline prompted Gov. Roy Cooper’s office to establish a $57.8 million mitigation fund, a top official told lawmakers this morning. Ken Eudy, senior advisor to the governor, told theJoint Subcommittee on the Atlantic Coast Pipeline that Cooper did not use a key water quality permit as pressure utilities to create the fund. “From the outset, Gov. Cooper told Duke Energy the permitting would be handled by experts at DEQ based on the science, technology and the law” Eudy said. “There was no interference.” Duke Energy and Dominion Energy are majority owners of the Atlantic Coast Pipeline. The 600-mile project would start at a fracked gas operation in West Virginia, travel through Virginia and enter North Carolina near Garysburg in Northampton County. From there, it would route 160 miles through eight counties: Northampton, Halifax, Wilson, Nash, Johnston, Cumberland, Sampson and Robeson. These counties, Eudy said, “bear all of the risk and reap none of the reward.” Eudy reiterated what had been disclosed in public documents, but his comments did underscore major turning points in the ACP controversy:

• Eastern North Carolinians, even business interests, became increasingly skeptical about the supposed economic promise of the ACP.
• Meanwhile, opposition to the project was intensifying.
• Duke Energy appeared impatient and concerned about the state’s lengthy permitting process.

After months of review and requests for more information from the utilities, the NC Department of Environmental Quality approved the essential water quality permit — a 401 — on Jan. 26, 2018. Within two hours of that approval, the governor’s office announced the mitigation fund and a memorandum of understanding, which was voluntary, with Dominion Energy. Immediately, environmental advocates and Republican lawmakers — rarely on the same side of an issue — speculated that a quid pro quo was at work.

GOP swings and misses with pipeline attacks on Cooper | NC Policy Watch - In Trumpland no lie about the environment or giveaway to a polluting industry is too blatant or outrageous. Trump doesn’t just relax regulations on the environment, he hires professional polluters to head the agencies charged with environmental oversight and then unleashes them to aggressively worsen environmental devastation. All of which serves to make it just a little bit difficult to take the much ballyhooed Republican investigation into Cooper’s clumsy handling of the Atlantic Coast Pipeline controversy terribly seriously. For nearly two years now, having repeatedly found themselves politically outmaneuvered by (and dramatically less popular than) the Governor, Republican lawmakers at the General Assembly have been advancing all manner of frenzied claims and conspiracy theories about the pipeline and the supposed treachery of the Cooper administration in approving it. These include claims that:

• the approval of environmental permits for the pipeline were driven by politics and self-dealing rather than the findings of Department of Environmental Quality regulators;
• the “mitigation fund” to which the pipeline owners agreed to contribute in order to address its negative environmental and economic impacts was really just a “slush fund” for Cooper to oversee;
• Cooper was improperly infringing on legislative authority by attempting to establish and administer the mitigation fund; and
• Cooper and his family stood to personally profit from the pipeline and related regulation of a solar energy farm.

Unfortunately for the GOP, despite some awkward and awkwardly timed moves by the administration on the matter, every effort to advance these theories keeps running into a dead end. The latest such occurrence took place last week when a legislative hearing on the matter failed to unearth any new or damning findings.

Dominion official: Company remains committed to ACP, construction expected to be complete in 2021 — Despite numerous setbacks, legal challenges and opposition from environmental advocacy groups, a Dominion Energy official said the company remains confident that construction of the Atlantic Coast Pipeline will be complete by 2021. Anand Yegan, director of gas transmission business development for Dominion, gave industry stakeholders a compressive overview of the project’s current standing during the West Virginia Oil and Natural Gas Association’s 2019 Fall Meeting in Morgantown. The company believes the U.S. Supreme Court will ultimately rule in its favor when the justices hear oral arguments next year relating to a decision by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit that revoked a key permit needed for construction to continue, Yegan said. “The case is going to be heard in the Supreme Court — we expect to have oral hearings in late winter, springtime of 2020 with a decision expected no later than June 2020,” he said. “It’s a huge, positive step for the project. It’s also an endorsement of some of the things that we believe, that the permit issuance was done the right way.” The Fourth Circuit’s decision denied a permit issued by the Forest Service allowing the pipeline’s route to go through two national forests and across the Appalachian Trail. Dominion voluntarily halted all major construction activities on the pipeline in December following the Fourth Circuit’s decision, which resulted in layoffs for much of the project’s workforce. Developers are also awaiting the outcome of a challenge to the project’s biological opinion, relating to the Endangered Species Permit issued by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Yegan said. “In this case, the Fourth Circuit found that Fish and Wildlife, the process and analysis that went into it, were deficient and they needed to do more,” he said. “Right now as we stand we are working with Fish and Wildlife to reinitiate consultation and expect the resistance of the biological opinion by winter of 2019-2020.”The overall budget for the project, not including financing costs, is now between $7.3 and $7.8 billion, Yegan said.

More modest batch of US natural gas pipelines seek to start service for winter 2019-20 — Several US natural gas pipeline developers are seeking federal regulators' permission to start service in time for the heating season in the eastern US and Midcontinent, but the capacity coming on tap pales in comparison to recent years. Among those asking for the nod from the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to start up this month include the 400,000 Dt/d Spire STL project in Illinois and Missouri; RH energytrans' 55,000 Dt/d Risberg Line in Pennsylvania and Ohio; Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line's 65,000 Dt/d Gateway Expansion in New Jersey; and the Lambertville East Expansion, a Texas Eastern Transmission compression project adding 60,000 Dt/d in New Jersey. New capacity placed into service in the Northeast US this winter will be significantly less than in years past. The Gateway Expansion, Lambertville East Expansion and the Risberg line together would add just 190,000 Dt/d of new capacity in Northeast markets this winter -- compared with the roughly 4.5 million Dt/d of capacity added in the fourth quarter of 2018. The past several years saw a wave of producer-backed projects enter service in the Northeast, mainly adding takeaway capacity out of constrained Appalachian producing areas. Transco's 1.7 Bcf/d Atlantic Sunrise, Columbia Gas Transmission's 1.3 Bcf/d WB XPress and the 1.5 Bcf/d Nexus Gas Transmission projects all began service in late 2018, followed by the 2.7 Bcf/d Mountaineer XPress project in the first quarter of 2019. The buildout has slowed dramatically, to the point where essentially no major pipeline projects are currently under construction in the Northeast. The remaining greenfield projects left in the queue -- Mountain Valley Pipeline, Atlantic Coast Pipeline and PennEast Pipeline -- have been beset by various legal challenges and permitting delays, driving up expected costs and pushing back targeted in-service dates.

Forecast Weather Demand Moves Higher Over Last 48 Hours, But Natural Gas Prices Continue Falling -- After a strong rally that sent prices in the December natural gas price all the way to $2.90 last week, sellers have been in control over the last few sessions. We did see a drop in projected demand in weather forecasts coming out of the weekend, but that has changed in the last 48 hours, with a healthy move back in the colder direction, especially by the GEFS model.  Despite the move back colder, we have seen no hint of a bullish reaction in the land of prices, as the December contract has fallen all the way down below the $2.60 level today. This is typically the time of year when weather changes rule when it comes to natural gas volatility, so what gives? There are a couple of issues. As seen in the chart above, even with the colder change over the last 48 hours, projected demand beyond this week still is just "near normal", with no days anywhere close to this week's peak cold. Another issue is with supply. We saw a new record high in production this past weekend, and while there are some freeze-offs currently, leading to a decline in production, the amount of freeze-offs appears to be less than what the market had anticipated given the strength of the cold. In addition, Canadian imports have ramped up this week, making up for a large portion of what production declines we have seen. The end result is that this week's supply is turning out to be higher than expected, and that is, for now, negating the gain in forecast demand seen over the last two days, especially with no days in the forecast strongly to the cold side in the medium range. Now, if we continue to add demand back, or see a colder start to December, it is likely the market will take notice more. Or, on the flip side, if the pattern steps solidly to the warmer side in December, there is likely still room to fall considerably, even from today's price levels.

US natural gas storage volume increases by 3 Bcf to 3.732 Tcf: EIA | S&P Global Platts - US working natural gas volumes in underground storage added 3 Bcf last week, according to the US Energy Information Administration Thursday, increasing much less than the five-year average for the corresponding week and marking the last net injection of the year, while the remaining NYMEX Henry Hub winter strip added about 2 cents following the number's release. US working natural gas volumes in underground storage added 3 Bcf, increasing by much less than the five-year average and marking the last net injection of the year, while the remaining NYMEX Henry Hub winter strip added about 2 cents following the number's release. Storage inventories increased to 3.732 Tcf for the week ended November 8, the US Energy Information Administration reported Thursday morning. The injection was less than an S&P Global Platts' survey of analysts calling for a 7 Bcf addition. Survey responses ranged from a net change of zero to a 12 Bcf build. The build was less than the 42 Bcf injection reported during the corresponding week in 2018, as well as the five-year average addition of 30 Bcf, according to EIA data. As a result, stocks were 491 Bcf, or 15%, more than the year-ago level of 3.241 Tcf and 2 Bcf, or 0.1%, more than the five-year average of 3.73 Tcf. The NYMEX Henry Hub December contract added 4 cents to $2.64/MMBtu following the announcement. The remaining winter strip, December through March, gained 2.5 cents to average $2.63/MMBtu. The price of gas this winter has been oscillating higher and lower over the past few months, and it has been on the downswing over the past week after topping out near $2.85 in early November. The only EIA region to post a net injection was South Central, which added 8 Bcf. Volumes fell slightly in the Midwest and Pacific while remaining flat in East and Mountain storage fields. A forecast by S&P Global Platts Analytics' supply and demand model has storage volumes decreasing by 86 Bcf for the week ending November 15, marking the official flip to heating season. Colder temperatures continue to drive up residential-commercial demand, and the week in progress has seen demand begin to exceed supplies by more than 10 Bcf/d, pointing to a sizable withdrawal. Total demand is up 14 Bcf/d on the week to average 108.7 Bcf/d. In the Northeast, where residential-commercial demand is up nearly 5 Bcf/d, power burn also notably moved higher, gaining 1 Bcf/d on the week. Upstream supplies this week are up 0.7 Bcf/d overall to an average 97.2 Bcf/d. A roughly 0.5 Bcf/d drop in US production was offset by an increase in net Canadian imports, which were aided in part by a drop in exports on Nexus Pipeline.

US Natural Gas Production Has Hit An All Time High - Dry natural gas production in the United States will rise to an all-time high of 92.10 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2019, the EIA reported on Wednesday in its latest version of the Short Term Energy Outlook. That figure is up 10% from 2018, but the EIA forecasts that the production growth in 2020 will be less due to “the lag between changes in price and changes in future drilling activity.” The low prices for nat gas in Q3 2019 will trickle down and eventually reduce natural gas-directed drilling, the EIA says, by the first half of next year. Natural gas production in 2020 is expected to reach 94.9 Bcf/d. Total primary natural gas supply will also rise to 85.10 Bcf/d in 2019, before reaching 86.45 Bcf/d in 2020, the EIA said. For net natural gas exports, the EIA is forecasting 4.8 Bcf/d in 2019, and then increasing to a staggering 7.4 Bcf/d in 2020. This is up from 2.0 Bcf/d in 2018, for a two-year increase of 270%. The EIA estimates that the share of US total utility-scale electricity generation from natural gas-fired power plants will increase to 37% of the total in 2019 and 38% in 2020—up from 34% in 2018. This increase will largely come at the expense of coal-fired power, which will fall from 28% of the total last year to 25% in 2019 and 22% in 2020. This shift from coal to natural gas will also be responsible for lowering the projected carbon emissions in 2019 and 2020, to 5,180 million tonnes in 2019 and 5,074 million tonnes in 2020, the lowest level since 1991, Reuters reported. The bridge fuel that the renewables industry is dismissing is, it would appear from the EIA data, far from “behind us”, with the EIA reporting no modest growth in renewable utility-scale generation in 2019 and 2020.

Natural Gas Price Prediction - Prices Rally but Drop 3.8% for the Week - Natural gas prices moved higher but remain range bound, as solid production and warmer than normal weather have weighed on prices. Prices declined nearly 4% this week after surging the following week as hedge funds covered short positions. The weather is expected to remain normal over the next 6-10 and 8-14 days according to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration. Support is seen at the November lows at 2.52. A break of this level would see a test of the October lows at 2.38. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 2.73. Short term momentum is neutral as the fast stochastic hover near the middle of the neutral range with a flat trajectory. The EIA reports that the United States set new records in natural gas production, consumption, and exports in 2018. In 2018, dry natural gas production increased by 12%, reaching a record-high average of 83.8 billion cubic feet per day according to the EAI. This increase was the largest percentage increase since 1951 and the largest volumetric increase in the history of the series, which dates back to 1930. U.S. natural gas consumption increased by 11% in 2018, driven by increased natural gas consumption in the electric power sector.

EIA: US is building 134 natgas lines - The U.S. will add between 16 billion cubic feet per day and 17 Bcf/d of natural gas pipeline capacity in 2019, according to the Energy Information Administration. Of the 134 active natural gas pipelines being built tracked by the federal agency, 46 have entered or are expected to begin service in 2019, it said. Most were or are being built to provide additional takeaway capacity out of natural gas supply basins. Many of the pipelines will move natural gas to Mexico or to liquefied natural gas export facilities on the Gulf Coast, Kallanish Energy reports. More than 40% of the new pipeline capacity – about 7.2 Bcf/d – delivers natural gas to locations within what the EIA calls the South Central region, a seven-state region that includes Louisiana and Texas. About 10 Bcf/d of new pipeline capacity lies within that region, the EIA said. Many of the pipeline projects will provide additional takeaway capacity from the Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico, or enable Permian natural gas production to reach interstate pipelines. The EIA cited Kinder Morgan’s Gulf Coast Express Pipeline, Oneok’s Roadrunner Eastbound Expansion and El Paso Natural Gas Pipeline’s Northern Delaware Basin Expansion project. The agency said the remainder of the projects slated for completion in the seven-state region in 2019 will deliver natural gas to demand centers, especially LNG export facilities on the Gulf Coast. EIA cited Cheniere’s Midship Pipeline from Oklahoma to the Sabine Pass LNG faciluty in Louisiana and the Texas East Transmission Co.’s Stratton Ridge Expansion to the Freeport LNG facility in Texas. The only natural gas pipeline in the seven-state region in 2019 that moves natural gas outside the region is the Valley Crossing Pipeline, which exports to Mexico, EIA said. The largest projects completed in 2019 in the Northeast U.S. are Millennium Pipeline’s Eastern System Upgrade Project that increased shipments to customers in Pennsylvania and New York, and Transcontinental Gas Pipeline’s Rivervale South to Market Project, with increased shipments to New York City. The region including Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio is expected to get nearly 5 Bcf/d in new natural gas pipeline capacity.

 Crews work to remove oil from overturned cargo ship (WTOC) -Response crews working to stabilize and salvage the overturned Golden Ray cargo ship were at work this week removing more oil from the vessel. Crews repelled down into the hull of the ship to clear a path for oil spill equipment. It will be used to pump oil out of hard to reach places inside to keep it from polluting the sound. That ship capsized in early September.

Offshore Oil to Peak in 2020, Then Slow Down-- Offshore oil production is expected to hit a peak in 2020 before joining the shale industry in a slowdown that could dramatically rewrite market supply predictions. A report by analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. sees projects in the Gulf of Mexico and off of South America significantly boosting output next year. After that, though, the odds drop for any further growth gains, the report found. Meanwhile, two well-known shale pioneers last month forecast a downturn ahead for their sector. Together, the warnings could signal a new era for a commodity that’s selling for about half the price reached just five years ago. The catalyst is a shareholder push for spending discipline. The result: Potentially a “tempting scenario” for investors where oil prices rise even as costs and demand fall, said Bob Brackett, a Bernstein report author. Three crude sources have seen substantive growth this century -- deepwater, shale and oil sands, according to Brackett. “The first peaks in 2020,” he wrote in an email. “The second peaks a few years later (and is slowing). And the future of oil sands is in question from a sustainability/CO2 impact.” The offshore industry has struggled to maintain growth since oil prices plunged to less than $30 a barrel in 2016 after reaching more than $100 in mid-2014. The high prices spurred a flurry of expensive projects between 2010 and 2014. But today those projects are “barely able” to generate value, according to industry consultant Rystad Energy, which evaluated offshore oil fields sanctioned since 2010 in an Oct. 30 report and ranked them by estimated value per barrel of oil. While newer deepwater projects are less expensive, they still take longer to develop than shale wells and they can’t compete on costs. Over the last few years, roughly $100 billion in spending has shifted to shale work as a result, according IHS Markit. Royal Dutch Shell Plc’s decision last month to pull the plug on a pair of projects in Kazakhstan because of their high costs points to offshore’s changing status. The latest example hit last week when Brazil failed to draw bids from the world’s oil majors in its auction of deep-sea deposits that could hold 15 billion barrels of oil, almost twice as much as Norway’s reserves. “The pipeline of things that have been discovered just won’t get sanctioned,” Brackett said.

New owner of pipeline that ruptured in Arkansas in 2013 keeping eye on potential restart The new owner of a pipeline that ruptured in a central Arkansas neighborhood in 2013 is looking into a possible restart, and water utility officials are watching. Energy Transfer Partners LLC, which owns the Pegasus pipeline, notified Central Arkansas Water on Oct. 24 that the company intends to begin testing the pipeline, which hasn't been in operation since 2013. The 858-mile pipeline stretches from south Texas to Illinois. When it was in use, it transported crude and refined oil products. On March 29, 2013, a rupture of the pipeline spilled tens of thousands of gallons of heavy crude oil into a subdivision in Mayflower. The oil also reached drainage ditches and a cove of Lake Conway. Exxon owned the pipeline at the time and is still a minority owner. Central Arkansas Water CEO Tad Bohannon briefed the utility's board of commissioners on the potential restart at its regular meeting Thursday. The pipeline runs through the watershed of Lake Maumelle, one of the utility's water sources. If there were a rupture along the north shore, oil would make its way into the lake; the 2013 break would have been "catastrophic" for the utility's water supply had it occurred 9 miles farther down the pipeline, spokesman Doug Shackelford said. The pipeline runs through more than a dozen smaller water utility systems in Arkansas as well. Pipeline regulations exist mainly at the federal level. Bohannon said the utility would stay in communication with Energy Transfer, though Central Arkansas Water general counsel David Johnson said he didn't know of any requirement that the company give public notice if it does decide to reopen the pipeline.

Atmos Energy reports 99 gas leak repairs in Georgetown for first half of year - Georgetown evacuees are back in their homes and businesses after a gas leak earlier this year. Atmos Energy Company evacuated 86 buildings during February through April because of gas trapped under the soil near Williams Drive. A report from the Railroad Commission of Texas Pipeline determined “Material Failure” caused the initial leak. Atmos representatives say they successfully pumped gas from the soil and replaced pipelines affected by the incident. According to the company’s semi-annual report, crews discovered 99 leaks in Georgetown from January - June 2019. There were 28 gas leaks in Georgetown over the same time period last year. CBS Austin asked Atmos for the number of gas leaks since July, but a spokesperson said they would not be able to access the data before deadline. Right now, Atmos’ website says they’re currently working on 16 pipeline projects in Georgetown. James Masters tells CBS Austin crews told him the leak in front of his home was due to deteriorating line seals. He’s thankful crews are working proactively to stop gas leaks but wonders about the quality of nearby pipes.

San Antonio becomes latest city considering anti-pipeline resolution - — The San Antonio City Council is jumping into a contentious debate over state eminent domain laws and the environmental impact of the growing number of proposed pipelines to move crude oil and natural gas from the Permian Basin. The Houston company Enterprise Products Partners plans to build the 30-inch crude pipeline from the West Texas shale play to the company’s storage tanks and export terminals in the Houston area. Some initial proposals called for the project to go through the picturesque Texas Hill Country and over part of the Edwards Aquifer, the main drinking water supply for San Antonio. Although those plans were scrapped, city leaders responded by drafting a resolution against any future pipeline project from getting built over the environmentally sensitive region and asking state leaders to give landowners and communities a stronger voice and more input for pipeline routes. Enterprise officials did not respond to a request for comment. The company has not finalized a route, but in an early October statement, the company said that the pipeline would not cross the Edwards Aquifer and its recharge area, located to the north and northwest of San Antonio and home to several endangered species of salamanders, fish and beetles. San Antonio’s proposed resolution comes when several communities to the north are raising similar concerns and fighting the Permian Highway Pipeline, a natural gas project proposed by Houston pipeline operator Kinder Morgan. Citing safety and environmental concerns, some 19 cities, counties, school districts and other public entities in the Texas Hill Country have filed resolutions condemning the Permian Highway Pipeline and asking state leaders for stricter laws.

Equinor Inks $325MM Deal to Sell Eagle Ford Assets to Repsol  - Norway’s Equinor ASA has signed an agreement to divest its 63 percent interest in, and operatorship of, its onshore business in the Eagle Ford to Spanish oil and gas company Repsol S.A. for $325MM, the company announced Thursday.The transaction includes all of Equinor’s interests in the Eagle Ford joint venture with Repsol, covering 69,000 net acres. Repsol will possess a 100 percent interest in the asset, upon closing.“This transaction supports Equinor’s strategy to optimize our onshore U.S. portfolio, enhancing our financial flexibility and focusing our capital on our core activities in the country,” Torgrim Reitan, Equinor’s executive vice president for Development and Production International, said in a company statement.“The US is a core area for Equinor, demonstrated by recent acquisitions including assets in the Gulf of Mexico, onshore acreage in the Austin Chalk and the Empire Wind project offshore New York,” he added.Bloomberg reported back in March that Equinor was considering a sale of its operations in the Eagle Ford as it focused on other stateside projects. Equinor, which was previously Statoil ASA, entered the Eagle Ford asset in 2010 through a joint acquisition with Talisman Energy USA (now owned by Repsol). In 2015, Equinor increased its interest in the joint asset from 50 percent to 63 percent and took on full operatorship.

Oxy to Sell Permian Campus After Anadarko Acquisition  -- Occidental Petroleum Corp. plans to sell a four-story office building in the heart of the Permian Basin and move employees into a nearby one owned by Anadarko Petroleum Corp., the oil producer it bought for $37 billion three months ago.The 213,000 square-foot complex will be vacated by April 2020 and is a “compelling” investment opportunity, according to a marketing document from CBRE Group Inc., the real-estate broker handling the sale alongside Midland-based Moriah Real Estate Co.The property was built in 2014 and is located in Westridge Park on the west side of Midland, near the airport. It’s also close to Anadarko’s campus and directly opposite Chevron, which Occidental outbid to acquire Anadarko. EOG Resources Inc. also has an office nearby.“We have told our employees in Midland that they will be moving into the state-of-the-art building that Anadarko began constructing prior to the acquisition,” Melissa Schoeb, a spokeswoman for Occidental, said by email. “The building is large enough to house our combined workforce and we will begin the move when it’s ready for occupancy.”   Occidental is under pressure to sell assets and pay down debt after the acquisition, which has been criticized by investors including billionaire activist Carl Icahn. The stock plunged this week after Chief Executive Officer Vicki Hollub slashed 2020 capital spending by 40%, raising concern that the company won’t pump enough oil to cover dividend payouts and debt service.

OIL AND GAS: Earthquakes and the Permian: What's the link? -- An increased rate of earthquake activity in West Texas is linked with oil and gas production, according to a new study that concentrated on the state's fuel-rich Delaware Basin.

The Permian paradox: Texas shale players go green to drill more - (Reuters) - As the thirst for electricity to power drilling rigs in West Texas drives the state’s energy needs to new highs, oil and gas companies are increasingly relying on wind and solar power to ensure that the shale boom continues. Oil and gas firms operating in the Permian shale basin in West Texas, the nation’s biggest, have been largely behind growth in the area’s energy demand, according to Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which oversees most of the state’s electricity grid. Securing ample, reliable energy supply is critical to sustaining the shale boom that has helped the United States eclipse Saudi Arabia and Russia as the world’s biggest oil producer. Wind and solar farms help oil and gas producers lock in a growing part of that supply in a way that can be easily tailored to their needs as they keep ramping up production, industry experts say. “Gas generation gets cheap if you’re building at a large scale. But if you’re trying to build to match your refinery or E&P (exploration and production) operations, you’d want to build something relatively inexpensive at a smaller scale,” says Manan Ahuja, manager at North America Power Analytics at S&P Global Platts. “You can add more panels or windmills at a later point if your exploration and production grows.” Building their own on-field wind or solar farms is one way to safeguard electricity supply, long-term supply deals with renewable energy firms is another. One recent example is Occidental Petroleum Corp (OXY.N), a major player in the Permian, which announced early last month the launch of a solar-powered facility to power an oilfield operation there. A unit of Occidental also signed a long-term power purchase agreement with a joint venture between Macquarie’s Green Investment Group (GIG) and Core Solar LLC for 109 MW of solar energy, beginning in 2021.

U.S. frack sand suppliers latest casualties in shale industry slump - (Reuters) - The companies that provide sand for hydraulic fracturing operations are the latest casualties of shale industry cutbacks as low oil prices and demands for higher investor returns stunt drilling activity. Two years ago, U.S. sand companies were racing to open West Texas mines to capitalize on a boom in oil and gas drilling, with more than 20 popping up across the region. That led to an oversupply that has driven down profit, which along with a drilling downturn has led some to close mines and others to consider an exit. Demand grew by 50% in the last two years and at its peak the U.S. sand and logistics market was worth about $12 billion a year, according to Joseph Triepke, president of consultancy Infill Thinking, but supplies grew nearly three times as much. “If you look at Permian frack sand prices, we estimate they are down about 80% from the peak,” he added in an interview on Monday, noting that at least two mines in West Texas have closed. Carbo Ceramics Inc (CRR.N) late on Friday issued a “going concern” warning to investors after its largest customer stopped buying its sand, sending its shares down 46% to 85 cents on Monday. Its warning comes as companies that fracture wells are cutting workers and idling equipment. Services firm ProPetro Holding Corp (PUMP.N) recently told investors it would run up to 28% fewer frack spreads this quarter, while market leader Halliburton Co (HAL.N) cut jobs at least twice this year and has idled equipment.

EPA may let oil waste in waterways. Is the public at risk? -- Within a year, Oklahoma could get approval from EPA to start issuing permits that will allow the oil industry to dispose of briny oil field waste in waterways, alarming environmentalists and making it the first of three Southwestern states to step into a thorny regulatory landscape.

Drilling boom adds stress to U.S. western water supplies: report - (Reuters) - About 60% of federal oil and gas drilling leases offered since 2017 are located in areas that are at risk of shortages and droughts, according to a report released on Tuesday. The report from the left-leaning Center for American Progress argued an increase in drilling in these areas could worsen water shortages, a potential problem for ranchers, farmers, and municipalities, because it requires vast amounts of water. “Oil and gas leasing in water-stressed areas has been largely unscrutinized but poses threats to water users across the West,” report author Jenny Rowland Shea said. Oil and gas producers using the hydraulic fracturing process typically pump a concoction of water, chemicals and proppants into underground reservoirs to break open rock formations and increase pressure, forcing hydrocarbons to the surface. A proppant is a material such as sand used to prop open the underground cracks from which oil and natural gas can then be harvested during the fracturing process. The average fracking job now consumes 13 million gallons (49 million liters) of water, up 40% in two years here according to a Reuters analysis of Permian producers’ data reported to FracFocus.org. The Center For American Progress report analyzed leasing data from the Interior Department and a water risk map from the World Resources Institute. In Nevada, 1,050 of 1,122 drilling leases were offered in areas of “high” or “extremely high” water stress, according to the report. In New Mexico, the heart of the Permian Basin here oil boom, 387 of 402 leases under the Trump administration, or 95%, are located in “extremely high” water-stress areas, it said. The report urged the Interior Department’s Bureau of Land Management to weigh the impact of drilling on local water use in its permitting decisions. “With climate change increasing water scarcity in much of the West, consideration of energy development impacts on watersheds can no longer be optional,”

US oil, gas rig count falls by seven to 869, driven by gas declines: Enverus - The total number of US rigs drilling for oil and gas dropped by seven to 869 compared with last week, according to data released Thursday by Enverus. In the oil-rich Permian Basin, the number of rigs rose to by four to 407, while other oily basins saw slight decreases in the rig count. At 69, the Eagle Ford Shale play of South Texas saw one fewer rig operating than in the previous week, while the SCOOP-STACK play of Oklahoma saw the number of rigs drop by one to 41. The number of rigs operating in the Williston Basin fell by two to 54. Rig counts in the gas-producing Appalachian Basin remained fairly flat week over week, with the Marcellus Dry and Marcellus Wet both seeing no change in the rig count, at 20 and 16 rigs, respectively. The rig count in Ohio’s Utica Shale play fell by two to 13 week over week. The disparity in the rig counts for oil producing basins versus more gas-focused plays follows a longer-term trend, said Sami Yahya, an analyst with S&P Global Platts Analytics. Over the past several months, the number of drilling rigs has declined in both oil- and gas-focused basins, but the decline has been much sharper in the gassier plays, Yahya said. “We’re seeing crude-focused basins holding on a little bit stronger to their rig count than the gas-focused areas like the Haynesville and Marcellus,” he said. In 2020, the number of rigs drilling for natural gas is expected to decline even further, as a number of gas producers have announced plans to cut back on their capital expenditures to focus on improving their cash flow in the wake of the expectation of continued low commodity prices. A recent analysis by Platts Analytics found that a group of Appalachian gas producers, expected to account for nearly 60% of the gas output in the Utica and Marcellus plays in 2020, have lowered their projected drilling capex for next year. As the calendar winds down toward the final weeks of the year, Yahya said rig counts are likely to strengthen, as some operators scramble to meet their estimated annual production targets. “There’s less flexibility to change things,” he said. “Operators made a lot of promises earlier in the year, so there’s a lot that they have to respond to, in terms of meeting those goals they laid out to investors.”

US Drops Eleven Oil, Gas Rigs - For the fifth week in a row, the U.S. has seen its rig count decline. The U.S. dropped 10 oil rigs and one gas rig for a net loss of 11 rigs this week, according to data from Baker Hughes Company. This brings the nation’s total number of active rigs to 806, which is 276 rigs shy of the count of 1,082 one year ago. Texas led all states this week in losses, shedding five rigs. The following states also idled rigs this week: Louisiana (-2) West Virginia (-2) Wyoming (-2) Colorado (-1) North Dakota (-1) Pennsylvania (-1) Utah (-1).  Ohio added two rigs this week, while New Mexico and Oklahoma tacked on a rig apiece. Among the major basins, the Permian shed four rigs this week, the Marcellus lost three and Ardmore Woodford, Cana Woodford, DJ-Niobrara and Williston shed one rig each. The Utica added two rigs while the Mississippian added one rig. Currently, the Permian has 408 active rigs, more than half of the nation’s total.

Trump administration suspends oil and gas production on 130 plots in Utah after challenge - The Trump administration has suspended the production of oil and gas on 130 plots in Utah following a legal challenge by environmentalists. The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) on Sept. 27 quietly issued suspensions of operation and production on 117 plots of previously leased land in Utah and restricted the sale of 130 plots total due to the ongoing litigation, which alleges that officials did not consider greenhouse gas emissions when granting the oil lease sales. “The BLM has concluded that it is necessary to suspend the referenced leases and complete further environmental analysis,” the individual notices read. The decision came after environmental groups legally challenged several lease sales, alleging that the agency failed to satisfy federal environmental laws by not considering the effects of climate change on federal land prior to leasing them for fossil fuel exploration. In March, a federal judge in Washington, D.C., ruled in favor of one such argument by environmentalists, finding that the environmental considerations behind Obama-era lease sales in Wyoming were inadequate. The temporary halt on roughly 300,000 acres was the first time the Trump administration’s energy agenda had been blocked for not considering climate change. The BLM in its September letter said a separate, similar case filed by environmentalists criticizing lease sales in Utah showed clear “parallels” with the Wyoming ruling. Therefore, the administration was suspending production to complete more environmental analysis. “This is another setback for the Trump administration’s irresponsible, illegal decision to lease these beautiful public lands for fracking and drilling,” said Diana Dascalu-Joffe, attorney at the Center for Biological Diversity, in a statement. “BLM officials are starting to recognize the error of their rush to ignore climate science and public health to unleash a fracking frenzy. Now the administration must acknowledge the irreparable harm these irrational decisions have on our fragile climate.”

Fracking Study Shows Toxic Chemical Exposure 2000 Feet From Drilling Sites - A new multiyear study found that people living or working within 2,000 feet, or nearly half a mile, of a hydraulic fracturing (fracking) drill site may be at a heightened risk of exposure to benzene and other toxic chemicals, according to research released Thursday by the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment (CDPHE) The study concluded that people living within almost a half-mile radius of a fracking well have an increased risk of feeling the effects of chemical exposure though headaches, nausea, dizziness, nosebleeds and respiratory trouble, according to The Denver Post. Until now, Colorado has had a 500-foot minimum distance that drilling wells can be from homes. Thestudy found that, in certain conditions, toxic chemicals like benzene, toluene and ethyltoluenes could be up to 10 times the recommended levels at a 500-foot distance. As you move away from the fracking site, the chemicals dissipate, but could still be at unsafe levels at 2,000 feet away, as Newsweek reported. That takes into account only the chemicals that are known. Some chemicals used in the hydraulic fracturing process are trade secrets. As Newsweek reported, a recent study from the Partnership for Policy Integrity noted that natural gas drillers use a law that allows some of their chemicals to remain secretive. "Secret exposure to chemicals that our own EPA reports as a potential hazard to human health is unconscionable," said Alan Lockwood, MD, of Physicians for Social Responsibility (PSR) to Newsweek. "Healthcare professionals can't possibly treat patients properly, make protective public health plans and decisions, and protect first responders without knowing what chemicals are in the environment." The CDPHE report strengthens Governor Jared Polis' argument that emissions from Colorado's powerful oil and gas industry need to be reined in. The finding also helps explain the complaints 750 residents living near oil and gas facilities made to the state's health department, said state toxicologist Kristy Richardson, as The Denver Post reported. Around 60 percent of those complaints involved symptoms commensurate with chemical exposure, such as headaches, dizziness and difficulty breathing.

 Keystone pipeline restarts 2 weeks after North Dakota leak (AP) — Canadian crude oil is once again moving through a pipeline nearly two weeks after the line leaked an estimated 383,000 gallons (1.4 million liters) of oil in North Dakota. Calgary, Alberta-based TC Energy, formerly known as TransCanada, said in a statement that the Keystone pipeline “returned to service” Sunday after approval of a repair and restart plan by the U.S. Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration. The company said it is still investigating the cause of the leak it reported Oct. 29 that affected about 22,500 square feet (2,090 square meters) of land near Edinburg, in northeastern North Dakota. “We will operate the pipeline at a reduced pressure with a gradual increase in the volume of crude oil moving through the system,” the company’s statement said. The pipeline is designed to carry about 23 million gallons (87 million liters) daily. The agency ordered the company last week to keep the pipeline shut down until corrective action was taken, including sending an affected portion of the pipe to an independent laboratory for testing. The agency has not responded to an emailed request for comment on Monday, a federal holiday. North Dakota environmental scientist Bill Suess said Monday that an affected portion of the 30-inch (76-centimeter) underground steel pipeline was dug up and replaced “over the weekend.” Suess said cleanup crews remained at the site on Monday. Some wetlands were affected, but not any sources of drinking water, he said. TC Energy has said about 200 people were at the site working around the clock to clean up the spill. The company said about 285,600 gallons (1 million liters) of crude oil has been recovered.

Montana lawmakers seek more time for Keystone XL public, tribal input - (Reuters) - Montana lawmakers representing Native American tribal members called on the state’s congressional delegation and the U.S. State Department on Thursday to extend the public comment period for the environmental review of the Keystone XL pipeline, saying tribes were not properly consulted. “We are particularly concerned with the lack of formal consultation with tribal governments whose natural and cultural resources could be significantly impacted,” the 10 members of the State-Tribal Relations committee wrote to Democratic U.S. Senator Jon Tester, Republican Senator Steve Daines and Republican Representative Greg Gianforte. The letter called for the Trump administration to conduct a “more rigorous and meaningful public comment process” for its draft supplemental environmental impact statement of Keystone XI’s proposed route through northeastern Montana, whose public comment period closes on Monday. The long-pending pipeline would carry heavy crude oil to Steele City, Nebraska, from Canada’s oil sands in Alberta, but has faced legal challenges from landowners, tribes and environmentalists. A federal judge in Montana in August 2018 ordered the State Department to do a full environmental review of a revised route for the Keystone XL oil pipeline. He said the previous environmental analysis fell short of the “hard look” at the cumulative effects of greenhouse gas emissions and the impact on Native American land resources that was required. The environmental impact statement will be the basis for other federal agencies to issue construction permits for construction, including one by the Army Corps of Engineers to allow the proposed line to be built under the Missouri River. Members of the Fort Peck Reservation are concerned that the pipeline would sit beneath the spillway of the Fort Peck dam, which would make it vulnerable to the velocity of water discharge from the dam.

How Money from Big Oil and Pipeline Developers Spills into the Democratic Party - The Democratic Party has a pipeline problem. After deciding to stop taking Big Oil money in 2018, then promptly reversing course, the DNC has all but proven that they value money over anything else — and they clearly don’t care much about where it comes from. The party that prides itself on being the driving force behind the climate change and conservation conversations have ultimately failed in their rhetoric, and more importantly, their actions (or lack thereof). This needs to stop. Indigenous peoples’ sacred lands and water sources are being threatened and destroyed. Our environment is being polluted — the recent Keystone Pipeline leak being the latest example. Over the course of this article, we will explore several of the countries largest pipelines, the companies that own them, and where they put their money. Here’s a clue: Oil money isn’t just for Republicans. The Keystone Pipeline transports about 700,000 barrels of oil per day from the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin in Alberta to refineries in Illinois, Texas, and Ohio. Owned by TC Energy, a subsidiary of TransCanada, the 2,151 mile long pipeline runs through six states (ND, SD, NE, KS, MO, IL), and would add a seventh (MT) if the proposed Keystone XL addition proceeds, as it appears it will. TransCanada, through their PAC, has donated $5,000 each to Rep. Dan Lipinski (D-IL), former Congressional Black Caucus chair Rep. Cedric Richmond (D-LA), and Rep. Richard Neal (D-MA) this year, as well as donating to various other PACs. Lipinski in particular is going to pop up a lot here, as he’s taken $1,000 from Richard Keane, CEO of Kinder Morgan (who has stakes in several pipelines including the Utopia, CalNev, and Plantation Pipelines) and $2,500 from Enbridge’s PAC. Enbridge owns one of the largest pipeline systems in North America, the Enbridge System, a sprawling 3,100 mile long pipeline system that transports over 1.4 million barrels of crude oil across the country, and one that is guilty of several of the largest inland oil spills in American history.

 PHMSA chief touts flexible rules, drawing pushback at pipeline safety conference  - The Trump administration's top pipeline safety official made a case for more flexible federal rules, wading into a longstanding dispute among safety advocates, regulators and industry groups at an annual gathering of the stakeholders. On one side of the debate are supporters of prescriptive rules that establish explicit, measurable safety goals for pipeline operators and pathways to achieving them. On the other side are advocates of performance-based standards, which give pipeline operators more latitude to prevent accidents. The chief of the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration said a "purely prescriptive" approach to regulation will never achieve the goal of reducing pipeline accidents to zero. "I don't think this should surprise anyone because, by definition, regulations create and then enforce minimum standards. But zero incidents is a maximum goal that cannot be reached by even perfect conception or enforcement of minimum standards," PHMSA Administrator Skip Elliott told the Pipeline Safety Trust conference in New Orleans on Nov 7. Elliott said there is no magic bullet to achieving that goal, but he believes the path to zero accidents has three elements: developing technological advancements, building a culture of safety and persistence. Creating a pervasive safety culture requires the help of all stakeholders and begins with finding common ground, he said. But comments from safety advocates and other stakeholders at the conference show there is not yet consensus that performance-based rules are more effective than prescriptive regulations.

Minnesota attorney general supports Michigan suit to shut down Enbridge pipeline – Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison has filed a brief supporting a lawsuit in Michigan seeking the shutdown of the Enbridge Line 5 pipeline, which starts in Superior, Wis., and runs underwater across the Straits of Mackinac that connects Lakes Michigan and Huron. In a friend-of-the-court brief filed this week with Wisconsin Attorney General Joshua Kaul and California Attorney General Xavier Becerra, they argue that state law, not federal, controls the routing of pipelines. Ellison said in a statement that he joined the brief to support Michigan “in protecting its right to control its underwater land against the federal government’s attempt to pre-empt it. The people of Michigan, who share the Great Lakes with us, have as much of a right to control their underwater land as the people of Minnesota do. By supporting Michigan, I’m protecting Minnesotans.” The filing “expresses no opinion as to whether plaintiff’s claim should ultimately succeed.”  Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel filed the suit in June in Ingham County Circuit Court, saying the 66-year-old Line 5 pipeline “violates the public trust doctrine, is a common law public nuisance, and violates the Michigan Environmental Protection Act because it is likely to cause pollution impairment and destruction of water and other natural resources.”  Enbridge has asked the court to dismiss the case and said “Line 5 has been safely operating across the Straits for more than 65 years” spokesperson Juli Kellner said in a statement. “There is no change in the operating condition of the pipeline or change in law to support the Attorney General’s position.”  Enbridge said a shutdown of Line 5, which carries up to 540,000 barrels of oil and natural gas liquids per day, would have “immediate and severe consequences” for refineries, jobs and fuel prices in Michigan, Ohio and Ontario. The line begins at the Enbridge terminal in Superior and ends in Sarnia, Ontario, across the Michigan border. The multistate brief filed Tuesday is unusual for a case in state court, though it does address the collision of state and federal powers concerning coastline and public water management. Last month Enbridge won a separate Michigan court case over its plan to build a tunnel below the Straits of Mackinac for a $500 million pipeline replacement it wants to finish by 2024. Nessel has appealed. The Bad River Band of Chippewa has asked the company to move the pipeline off its land in northern Wisconsin; Enbridge has offered $24 million to settle the resulting lawsuit.

Dem AGs file in support of Nessel's Enbridge suit — Democratic attorneys general in California, Minnesota and Wisconsin weighed in Tuesday on the state’s legal spat with Enbridge over the continued operation of Line 5, arguing a state’s public trust of natural resources extends to submerged lands. The U.S. Coast Guard’s general authority in navigable waters and the federal oversight of pipelines fail to preempt the state’s authority over the bottom lands of the Straits of Mackinac, where the dual spans of Line 5 reside, they said. “…the authority includes the power to reject uses of these lands previously allowed by a state,” the filing said. The states filing the brief “have an interest in preserving their long-standing authority over submerged lands, and they submit this memorandum in support of Michigan’s argument that there has been no federal preemption of the public trust doctrine in this case.” The Tuesday filing comes a day prior to filings from Attorney General Dana Nessel and Enbridge Energy in Ingham County Circuit Court, where Enbridge is asking the judge to dismiss Nessel’s case.Nessel asked the court in June for an order to shut down and decommission Enbridge’s 66-year-old pipeline, arguing that the pipeline is a public nuisance and violates public trust and environmental laws. The lawsuit came after years of environmental concerns that a break in the pipeline would yield catastrophic effects in the Great Lakes, similar to a 2010 Enbridge spill near Marshall, Michigan. Republican former Gov. Rick Snyder’s administration reached an agreement with Enbridge last year to build a $500 million tunnel to house the pipeline and protect the straits in the event of a spill. Nessel earlier this year opined the agreement was unconstitutional, but Michigan Court of Claims Judge Michael J. Kelly rejected her technical argument by saying it "misses the mark."  Enbridge purchases land owned by City of Mellen - An Enbridge spokesperson says the company has purchased land owned by the City of Mellen as it evaluates options for re-routing Line 5. In a Mellen City Council meeting on November 5, council members voted to approve the agreement, after rejecting a land survey request by the company last month. In a statement released by Enbridge, Mellen will receive $1 million for the tract, road improvements, a water treatment system solar array and debt retirement, as well as community investments in the city’s school, fire, and emergency services department, and the museum. Company officials say if the Line 5 relocation project is built on the land, the company will make an additional $3.25 million investment in city projects. The company says other routes are still being considered. Enbridge is currently evaluating options for re-routing the line in response to a lawsuit filed by the Bad River Band of Lake Superior Chippewa. The lawsuit asks for the removal of Line 5 off the reservation. Enbridge says they have been operating across Northern Wisconsin since Line 5 was built in 1953, and add the company is happy with the agreement. The full statement can be found below:

This pipeline cuts across a reservation. Wisconsin might make tribal members felons for protesting it.  - For more than 60 years, one section of Enbridge’s elaborate network of pipelines carrying petroleum across Canada has taken a detour through the Bad River Reservation in northern Wisconsin.Some of the easements that allowed Enbridge to keep its Line 5 pipeline on the tribe’s land expired in 2013, and negotiations between Enbridge and the tribe to renew the leases fell through. Yet Line 5 is still funneling Enbridge’s petroleum across the Bad River Reservation. The tribe says Enbridge is trespassing, and hassued the company to kick it off their property.If a bill awaiting Wisconsin’s Democrat Governor Tony Evers’ signature becomes law, members of the tribe protesting Enbridge’s operations on their reservation could face fines of $10,000 and up to six years in jail. “It provides these illegally operating companies with the right to basically charge someone with a felony for being on their land,” said Philomena Kebec, a citizen of Bad River and former tribal prosecutor. “And this could be an Indian person on Indian land where the company is illegally trespassing.”The Wisconsin bill is part of a wave of similar legislation raising penalties for trespassing or damaging oil and gas infrastructure around the country. Support for bills penalizing protestors followed in the wake of the Dakota Access Pipeline protests in North Dakota nearly three years ago. So far, at least eight states have such laws on the books, according to the International Center for Not-for-Profit Law, a watchdog group tracking the legislation, and several others — including Wisconsin, Ohio, and Pennsylvania — are considering similar proposals. Under a 2015 Wisconsin law, trespassing and damaging property owned, operated, or leased by an “energy provider” — mainly electric and gas companies — is a felony. The new bill expands the definition to include companies with petroleum, chemical, and “renewable fuel” infrastructure, a change that would protect the many pipelines that crisscross the state. It has the backing of oil and gas groups, labor unions, and a renewable energy developer, EDP Renewables.

‘It’s Been Stressful’: Propane Shortage Adding To Difficult Harvest For Minnesota Farmers – — Minnesota is now one of eight states under an emergency declaration when it comes to propane. The propane shortage extends across the Midwest, and as far south as Kansas. It can be blamed on a wet harvest and delivery issues caused by early winter weather in some states. A wet fall means propane is needed to dry crops for many farmers before it can be stored. And they can burn through thousands of gallons of propane in a week. That also burns through their pocketbooks. In some cases, propane has been brought in from Nebraska and other states, in order to keep up with corn dryers that are working overtime. Brothers Dan and Daryl Patnode and their sons farm a thousand acres near Loretto. “All the homes and businesses, turkey barns and chicken barns. The demand is there and they are just having a hard time keeping up,” Dan said. They also milk about 140 dairy cows as part of Patnode Dairy. We visited with them in 2013, during a similar harvest, when propane also became issue. A wet spring meant late planting. A wet fall means late harvesting. “Start to finish. It’s been stressful from the get-go. We couldn’t get planting and now it seems like we can’t get the harvest finished up,” Daryl said. On the dairy side of things, the Patnodes need propane to heat their milking parlor. So far they haven’t had to wait for propane. But there’s a concern that with early winter weather things could change, as it already has for other farmers across the Midwest. “Now we are trying to get the crop out and do tillage, but now there is frost in the ground. Six inches of frost,” Dan said. Last year at this time, about 86% of Minnesota corn had been harvested. Right now, we are only at about 63%. But farmers are counting on the next, few days to be dry and warmer so progress can be made. The emergency declaration for propane comes after the natural gas supply for commercial corn dryers was shut off on Monday. It’s part of an effort to keep enough supply on hand for homes and schools.

DAKOTA ACCESS: Pipeline expansion sparks battles in 3 states -- Two years after it started moving oil out of North Dakota, the Dakota Access oil pipeline is asking for permission to nearly double its capacity — touching off the same environmental and regulatory concerns that led to massive protests and a presidential order blocking the project in 2016.

Tribe to argue against expansion of Dakota Access pipeline (AP) — Standing Rock Sioux Tribe members have long maintained that a leak in the Dakota Access oil pipeline would threaten their Missouri River water supply, and on Wednesday they will argue that a new proposal to double the line’s capacity magnifies the probability of a disastrous oil spill. North Dakota regulators will hold a hearing in Linton, a town of 1,000 along the pipeline’s path. The Public Service Commission will take comments from tribe members and other pipeline opponents in the community near where a pump station would be placed to increase the line’s capacity from 600,000 barrels per day to as much as 1.1 million barrels. A barrel is 42 gallons. Texas-based Energy Transfer proposed expanding its pipeline in June to meet growing demand for oil shipments from North Dakota, without the need for additional pipelines or rail shipments. The $3.8 billion pipeline was subject to prolonged protests and hundreds of arrests during its construction in North Dakota in late 2016 and early 2017 because it crosses beneath the Missouri River, just north of the Standing Rock Sioux Reservation. The tribe draws its water from the river and fears pollution. Energy Transfer insists the pipeline and its expansion are safe. The company also plans additional pumping stations in South Dakota, Iowa and Illinois. Commissioners in a South Dakota county last month approved a conditional use permit for a pumping station needed for the expansion. Permits in the other states are pending. The proposed expansion would “increase both the likelihood and severity of spill incidents,” the tribe said in court filings ahead of Wednesday’s hearing, which an administrative law judge will oversee. The company said in court filings that its $40 million pump station built on a 23-acre site would produce only “minimal adverse effects on the environment and the citizens of North Dakota.”

Company: Dakota Access expansion doesn’t increase risk (AP) — Dakota Access pipeline officials argued Wednesday that the company’s proposal to double the line’s capacity does not increase the potential of a failure, a claim that has been long dismissed by opponents of the idea. Texas-based Energy Transfer wants to double the capacity of the pipeline to as much as 1.1 million barrels daily to meet growing demand for oil shipments from North Dakota, and is seeking permission for pump stations to do it. Supporters and opponents of the proposal packed a small-town auditorium in Linton for a field hearing before state regulators considering the next phase of a project that sparked months of sometimes violent protests during its construction. Chuck Frey, a vice president of engineering for Energy Transfer, told North Dakota regulators the pipeline’s expansion “does not increase the risk” of a spill. “I assure the commission we plan to cut no corners on this work,” Frey said. The Standing Rock Sioux Tribe and other opponents have long argued that a leak in the pipeline would threaten the tribe’s Missouri River water supply, and say that increasing pressure magnifies the risk. Standing Rock Sioux Tribal Chairman Mike Faith said increasing the pipeline’s capacity increases the “consequences as well as the likelihood” of an oil spill. Faith told The Associated Press that he doesn’t trust the company’s promise.

 Pipeline leak in Williams County impacts cropland - More than 8,000 gallons of oil spilled from a pipeline leak in Williams County and impacted cropland, the North Dakota Department of Environmental Quality reported Wednesday. The incident on a crude oil gathering line operated by Hiland Crude occurred about a mile northeast of McGregor on Oct. 17 and was reported the same day. However, the initial report did not include an estimate of the amount of oil released, the department said. An updated report provided on Tuesday estimates about 192 barrels of oil were released. That equates to 8,064 gallons. You have 3 free articles remaining. Environmental Quality personnel have inspected the site and will continue to monitor the investigation and remediation.

Brine spill reported in Mountrail County -  Brine leaked at a Mountrail County oil well site on Monday, the North Dakota Oil and Gas Division reports. Marathon Oil Co. told the state that 300 barrels, or 12,600 gallons, of the fluid leaked from a valve and piping connection at one of its wells. Brine is saltwater that comes to the earth's surface alongside oil at well sites. All of the barrels that spilled were contained onsite, and all have been recovered, according to the Oil and Gas Division. The incident occurred 10 miles south of New Town.

 Climate change solutions: More cities banning natural gas in homes – Fix global warming or cook dinner on a gas stove?That’s the choice for people in 13 cities and one county in California that have enacted new zoning codes encouraging or requiring all-electric new construction.  The codes, most of them passed since June, are meant to keep builders from running natural gas lines to new homes and apartments, with an eye toward creating fewer legacy gas hookups as the nation shifts to carbon-neutral energy sources.For proponents, it's a change that must be made to fight climate change. For natural gas companies, it's a threat to their existence. And for some cooks who love to prepare food with flame, it's an unthinkable loss.Natural gas is a fossil fuel, mostly methane, and produces 33% of U.S. carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Carbon dioxide is the primary greenhouse gas causing climate change.“There’s no pathway to stabilizing the climate without phasing gas out of our homes and buildings. This is a must-do for the climate and a livable planet,” said Rachel Golden of the Sierra Club’s building electrification campaign. These new building codes come as local governments work to speed the transition from natural gas and other fossil fuels and toward the use of electricity from renewables, said Robert Jackson, a professor of energy and the environment at Stanford University in Palo Alto, California.  “Every house, every high-rise that’s built with gas, may be in place for decades. We’re establishing infrastructure that may be in place for 50 years,” he said.

 Forget the Green New Deal: America Is Now an Energy Superpower -  America’s status as the world’s leading energy superpower was just elevated to an even more impressive level as 12 new all-time monthly production records for crude oil and natural gas output were established during August. According to new monthly data released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) last Thursday (here and here), these are the 12 new production records, summarized in the table above:

• 1. Natural Gas (8 new records). The US produced more natural gas in August — 111.4 billion cubic feet per day – than in any previous month, and which represented an annual increase of 9.1% compared to last August. New natural gas production records were also established in the states of Texas (14.0%), Pennsylvania (11.3%), Louisiana (21.5%), Ohio (15.8%), West Virginia (18.1%), New Mexico (21.1%) and North Dakota (23.2%), which all had the double-digit percent increases year-over-year show above. Over a longer period of time, the most impressive gains in natural gas production are for Pennsylvania, which experienced a 38-fold increase in gas output since January 2006 when the EIA started reporting state-level production and a 31-fold increase in Ohio’s production over the same period. Pennsylvania and Ohio, along with West Virginia have the fortune of being situated on top of the prolific Marcellus and Utica Shale Formations, which is the largest source of natural gas in the US accounting for almost 30% of America’s total natural gas production (vs. about 25% from Texas).
• 2. Crude Oil (4 new records). US oil production in August increased by nearly 9% from the same month last year and set a new all-time output record of 12.4 million barrels of oil per day (bpd). New monthly crude oil production records were also established in August for the states of Texas at 5.1 million bpd (13.2% year-over-year increase), North Dakota at 1.4 million bpd (nearly 13% annual increase) and New Mexico at 936,000 bpd (32% increase). The new production records in August for both oil and gas in New Mexico are thanks to the state’s fortunate proximity to the Permian Basin, America’s most prolific oil and gas formation.

David Hughes’ Shale Reality Check 2019  - 1.9 million. 13 trillion. 10 billion. These are the numbers that jumped off the page when I read PCI Fellow David Hughes’s latest “shale reality check” report on the U.S. government’s forecasts of domestic oil and gas production. To elaborate, these forecasts mean that by 2050:

• 1.9 million new oil and gas wells will need to be drilled;
• $13 trillion will need to be spent to drill all those wells; and
• 10 billion barrels of tight oil production will be “missing” from shale plays to meet the reference case forecast for cumulative production.

These are just some of the crazy numbers behind the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest forecasts for U.S. oil and gas production through 2050. Every year, the EIA releases a new forecasts of domestic energy in the coming decades. These forecasts—specifically the “reference case”—are virtually taken to the bank by policymakers, investors, and the mainstream media as the most likely scenario of future production, consumption, and prices. This despite the fact that they are very often wrong and vary tremendously from year to year. Or the fact that for several years now David Hughes has published “reality checks” on the forecasts of tight oil and shale gas production (extracted through “fracking”) found in the Annual Energy Outlook—reality checks that have consistently shown that the EIA’s projections are, to be polite, extremely optimistic. Hughes’s Shale Reality Check 2019  finds that the EIA’s forecasts for major plays like the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Marcellus, Utica, and the Permian Basin are terribly unrealistic. Of the 13 shale plays analyzed, nine are rated as extremely optimistic, three highly optimistic, and only one moderately optimistic. And even with all this optimism, the overall forecast falls short by nearly ten billion barrels of tight oil, or 10% of the production volume required through 2050.

The  EIA Is Grossly Overestimating U.S. Shale - The prevailing wisdom that sees explosive and long-term potential for U.S. shale may rest on some faulty and overly-optimistic assumptions, according to a new report.Forecasts from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), along with those from its Paris-based counterpart, the International Energy Agency (IEA), are often cited as the gold standard for energy outlooks. Businesses and governments often refer to these forecasts for long-term investments and policy planning. In that context, it is important to know if the figures are accurate, to the extent that anyone can accurately forecast precise figures decades into the future. A new report from the Post Carbon Institute asserts that the EIA’s reference case for production forecasts through 2050 “are extremely optimistic for the most part, and therefore highly unlikely to be realized.”The U.S. has more than doubled oil production over the past decade, and at roughly 12.5 million barrels per day (mb/d), the U.S is the largest producer in the world. That is largely the result of a massive scaling-up of output in places like the Bakken, the Permian and the Eagle Ford. Conventional wisdom suggests the output will steadily rise for years to come. It is worth reiterating that after an initial burst of production, shale wells decline rapidly, often 75 to 90 percent within just a few years. Growing output requires constant drilling. Also, the quality of shale reserves vary widely, with the “sweet spots” typically comprising only 20 percent or less of an overall shale play, J. David Hughes writes in the Post Carbon Institute report. After oil prices collapsed in 2014, shale companies rushed to take advantage of the sweet spots. That allowed the industry to focus on the most profitable wells first, cut costs and scale up production. But it also pushed off a problem for another day. “Sweet spots will inevitably become saturated with wells, and drilling outside of sweet spots will require higher rates of drilling and capital investment to maintain production, along with higher commodity prices to justify them,” Hughes says in his PCI report. In addition, this form of “high-grading” does allow for rapid extraction, but it doesn’t necessarily mean that more oil is ultimately going to be recovered when all is said and done. The same might be true for all of the highly-touted productivity gains, Hughes says. The industry has boosted productivity by drilling longer laterals, intensifying the use of water and frac sand, as well as increasing the number of fracking stages. These productivity improvements are “undeniable,” Hughes writes. However, the “limits of technology and exploiting sweet spots are becoming evident, however, as in some plays new wells are exhibiting lower productivities,” Hughes says.

The US shale revolution won’t stall despite headwinds, global oil experts say - U.S. shale oil production has shown some signs of moderation in recent months and production growth could be slowing, but experts told CNBC at Abu Dhabi’s influential oil & gas summit that the U.S. shale revolution won’t be stopped any time soon. The U.S. is expected to become a net energy exporter in 2020, exporting more energy products ranging from oil to natural gas, than it imports, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Jason Bordoff, professor and director at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy and a former adviser to President Obama, told CNBC Monday that he didn’t think that status would be short-lived. “I don’t think the export story will be short-lived, I think the growth in production is going to slow but it’s still growing, so we’re still going to see the U.S. become a net oil exporter and put a lot of barrels on the market and that’s really important,” he told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick and Hadley Gamble at the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition & Conference (ADIPEC) on Monday. The U.S. Department of Energy’s statistics bureau, the EIA, announced back in January that it expected the U.S. to become a net energy exporter in 2020 for the first time ever. It had been a net importer of energy since 1953, the EIA noted in its annual energy outlook which makes projections for the next 50 years. The agency said the U.S. will start exporting more crude oil and petroleum products than it imports by the final quarter of 2020, and then would remain a net oil exporter for years to come. It noted, however, that production would increase per year until 2027 when it would then level off. The net exporter status comes earlier-than-expected as a previous forecast believed it would be achieved by 2022.

Frackers Prepare to Pull Back, Exacerbating a Slowdown in U.S. Oil Growth – WSJ - Shale companies change course as financial pressure mounts; “I don’t think OPEC has to worry that much more about U.S. shale growth”  The U.S. has more than doubled its crude output over the last decade. Much of the growth is due to the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico. WSJ traces the hotspot of North America’s crude oil boom, with a look at challenges that producers in the region face. After pushing U.S. oil and natural-gas production to record levels, some shale companies plan to pump less. The pullback is sharpest among the country’s largest natural-gas drillers. Several producers, including EQT Corp. and Chesapeake Energy Corp., have said during third-quarter earnings that they may shrink output next year.

U.S. oil producers to slash spending for second straight year in 2020 (Reuters) - U.S. energy producers plan to slash spending for a second straight year in 2020 as companies struggle to extract profits from the U.S. shale boom. While U.S. crude output hit a record 13 million barrels per day (bpd) this month, U.S. oil companies have struggled to deliver consistent profits. That is in part due to their success - higher output has kept oil prices tethered. Investor dissatisfaction has spurred companies to rein in their spending for a second year, with capital expenditures among companies that have released budgets set to fall more than 10% in 2020. Despite lower spending, output continues to grow, swelling global supply, and taking market share from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which has had to cut output sharply to accommodate U.S. shale. OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo said this week that U.S. shale supply could underperform in 2020. However, the International Energy Agency said on Friday that OPEC and its allies face challenges from production growth out of non-OPEC countries led by the United States. Producers expect to spend about $4 billion less in 2019 than in 2018, according to U.S. financial services firm Cowen & Co. So far, 21 exploration and production companies tracked by Cowen have released 2020 capex guidance with 15 projecting declines, five with increases and one unchanged, for a 13% year-over-year spending decline. “All of these companies need to start posting a profit and free cash flow. Investors are demanding it,” said Alex Beeker, analyst with Wood Mackenzie. “You have to cut capex to make that happen.” The spending cuts coincide with expectations for a sharp slowing in U.S. production growth. U.S. oil output is expected to average 12.3 million bpd for 2019, up by 1.3 million bpd from 2018, according to U.S. Energy Department data. The Department of Energy expects 2020 growth at 1 million bpd, but numerous analysts expect slower growth.

OPEC's Barkindo: Shale producers are concerned that their slowdown is becoming a 'fast deceleration' - — OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo isn’t worried about booming U.S. shale production pushing the oil price down despite a difficult year for the 14-member crude producing organization, which has struggled to keep prices from falling in a low demand environment. Asked about the disruptive impact of U.S. shale on the energy market, and whether the abundant commodity could torpedo OPEC’s efforts to boost prices into the new year, Barkindo cited an impending slowdown in shale — and suggested the most concerned party out of anyone should be shale producers themselves. “Here in ADIPEC, talking to a number of producers, especially in the shale basins, there is a growing concern by themselves that the slowdown is almost graduating into a fast deceleration,” Barkindo told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick at the annual Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition & Conference (ADIPEC). “And the numbers are starting to show it. They are the operators, they are the ones investing, and they are telling us that we are probably more optimistic than they are considering the variety of headwind challenges they are facing.” Shale oil, the commodity that catapulted the U.S. to becoming the world’s top energy producer last year and that’s threatened the level of influence OPEC heavyweights have over the market, is indeed set for a slowdown in 2020, recent figures show. U.S. oil rig count dropped by 2% at the end of October to 700, the lowest in two and a half years, according to oil services company Baker Hughes. The industry is facing capital retreat as investors pull away from drilling companies, unwilling to spend more money on unprofitable growth. A recent report by IHS Markit forecasts total U.S. production growth to fall to 440,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2020 and broadly flatten by 2021 — down from a global record of 2 million bpd annual growth in 2018.

OPEC sees smaller 2020 oil surplus ahead of policy meeting - (Reuters) - OPEC said on Thursday it expected demand for its oil to fall in 2020 as rivals pumped more despite a smaller surplus of crude in the global market, building a case for the group to maintain supply curbs when it meets to discuss policy next month. The logo of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is seen at OPEC's headquarters in Vienna, Austria July 1, 2019. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger In its last monthly report before the Dec. 5-6 talks, OPEC said demand for its crude would average 29.58 million barrels per day (bpd) next year, 1.12 million bpd less than in 2019. That points to a 2020 surplus of about 70,000 bpd, which is less than indicated in previous reports. The drop in demand could encourage the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies to keep supply curbs in place when they gather in Vienna. But the report kept its 2020 economic and oil demand growth forecasts steady and was more upbeat about the outlook. “On a positive note, signs of improving trade relations between the U.S. and China, a potential agreement on Brexit after the UK’s general election, fiscal stimulus in Japan, and a stabilization of the downward slope in major emerging economies could stabilize growth at the current forecast level,” OPEC said in the report. The report echoes comments from OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo, who has said the outlook in 2020 could surprise to the upside, citing prospects for a resolution of the U.S.-Chinese trade row and lower non-OPEC supply.

IEA boosts estimate for 2020 non-OPEC oil supply - -The International Energy Agency raised its 2020 oil production growth estimate for countries outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Friday, with the U.S. set to continue as the key driver of growth. In its closely-watched oil-market report, the IEA said it expects non-OPEC oil supply growth to rise to 2.3 million barrels a day next year, up from 2.2 million barrels a day in its previous estimate. The agency said heavy oil market inventories and strong market supply would continue next year and that "the U.S. will lead the way but there will also be significant growth from Brazil, Norway and barrels from a new producer, Guyana." That change to the IEA's supply estimate came after the agency said earlier this week in its annual World Energy Outlook that U.S. shale-oil production will reshape global energy markets in the years to come, boosting the country's influence over OPEC nations. The IEA's note also followed OPEC's monthly market report, released Thursday, in which the cartel lowered its own non-OPEC production growth estimate. OPEC and its allies are due to meet in Vienna in December to discuss the status of ongoing supply cuts, and OPEC leaders have been circumspect about whether they may deepen or extend cuts, citing slowing U.S. production growth as a factor. While U.S. growth is expected to slow in 2020--its contribution to non-OPEC growth slipping to 54% from 87% this year--that will be partly mitigated by stronger growth from other countries, the IEA said in its monthly report.

IEA Sees U.S. Shale Squeezing OPEC Influence – WSJ - U.S. shale-oil production will reshape global energy markets in the years to come, bolstering the country’s influence over OPEC nations, the International Energy Agency said Wednesday. But Mohammed Barkindo, secretary-general of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, cautioned that growth in American output was slowing and its role remained essential to stabilize oil supplies.

Elizabeth Warren’s fracking ban pledge shows a ‘total lack of understanding,’ oil guru Yergin says— One of the energy industry’s most prominent experts is flabbergasted at Democratic presidential contender Elizabeth Warren’s promise to ban fracking if elected. “The notion just to say I’m going to stop fracking, it is like this all-encompassing term — what are you talking about? I mean really, what are you talking about?” Dan Yergin, the vice chairman of IHS Markit and founder of IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates asked during the annual Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition & Conference (ADIPEC) on Monday. “If she’s in the lead then I think that becomes a factor that hangs over oil,” the market veteran and oil historian told CNBC’s “Capital Connection.” “In the U.S., oil production is primarily regulated by the states but there is so much that the federal government can do with a thousand cuts of regulation and so forth … and to just say she’s against fracking shows a total lack of understanding.” “And by the way, this has been one of the most dynamic parts of the U.S. economy — you’re talking about millions of jobs,” Yergin added. “This is just some notion, and they’re not even able to explain what they don’t like about fracking.” Warren and her supporters — and environmentalists as a whole — would disagree. In September Warren, who is a close contender for the top spot on Democratic polls, pledged to put a “total moratorium on all new fossil fuel leases for drilling offshore and on public lands” and “ban fracking everywhere” on her first day in office.

Don't Ban Fracking - Pass A Carbon Tax Instead - The Trump administration’s formal notification that it will abandon the Paris climate agreement should be treated as a huge in-kind contribution to the Democratic Party. It’s an emphatic message to anyone who cares about the planet: Do not, under any circumstance, vote Republican in 2020. The Democrats running for president could not be more starkly opposed to Donald Trump. He mocks climate change as a hoax, wants to dig coal until West Virginia is just a vast cavity in the ground, and thinks the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge should be a safe space for oil rigs. The Democrats recognize scientific reality, favor the Paris climate accord and are committed to curbing greenhouse gas emissions. Some of the candidates, unfortunately, are enamored of the old command-and-control approach to environmental protection: forbidding this and requiring that. Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and Kamala Harris support a ban on fracking, a method that has greatly increased U.S. oil and gas production. Almost all the candidates would end new oil and gas leases on federal lands. Raising vehicle fuel economy standards and setting a deadline for all vehicles to achieve zero emissions are common ideas. These proposals all suffer from the same flaw: dictating purported solutions from on high, with little regard for side effects, instead of devising incentives for creative, inexpensive remedies. This approach guarantees that the cost will be higher than necessary and results worse. It appeals to politicians, though, because it allows the illusion that major progress can be made without any sacrifice by voters, except maybe those who frack for a living. The assumption is that if people realize environmental improvement is not cost-free, they will run screaming from the room. That theory has prevailed for decades. So I am startled but pleased to discover that this year, many Democratic candidates have decided to treat voters as intelligent people who can be persuaded to embrace optimal remedies. The best of all is a carbon tax, which would raise the price of different fossil fuels to reflect the harm they do. Among the candidates who favor it are Sanders, Warren and Harris, as well as Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar and Julian Castro. It would advance these purposes without draconian regulations, inflexible bans or cumbersome bureaucracy. The money collected could be rebated to every American — yielding a net tax increase of zero.

Officials responding to oil spill from cargo ship in Hawaii - The U.S. Coast Guard says a cargo ship has spilled oil into Honolulu Harbor. Coast Guard Petty Officer 2nd Class James Connor says local and federal officials are working on cleanup Thursday after a 433-foot (132-meter) container ship spilled oil a day earlier during a fueling operation.  It is not immediately clear how much oil spilled or how much fuel the vessel holds. It's owned by the U.S. shipping company Matson Inc. Absorbent material was placed around the ship and about 120 gallons of oil has been recovered so far. A Coast Guard flight confirmed oil has leaked outside a containment area and is washing ashore across the harbor on Sand Island. Officials say there are no reports of wildlife being injured.

Ransomware attack at Mexico's Pemex halts work, threatens to cripple computers - (Reuters) - A ransomware attack hit computer servers and halted administrative work on Monday at Mexican state oil firm Pemex, according to employees and internal emails, in hackers’ latest bid to wring ransom from a major company. Hackers have increasingly targeted companies with malicious programs that can cripple systems overseeing everything from supply chains to payments to manufacturing, removing them only after receiving substantial payments. An internal email seen by Reuters said Pemex was targeted by “Ryuk,” a strain of ransomware that experts say typically targets companies with annual revenue between $500 million and $1 billion. “We are taking measures at the national level to fight RYUK ransomware, which is affecting various Pemex servers in the country,” a company official said in an email on Sunday. The attack is the latest challenge for embattled Pemex, already struggling to pay down massive debt, reverse years of declining oil production and fend off potential downgrades of its credit ratings. Pemex said in a statement late on Monday that attempted cyber attacks the day before were “neutralized” in a timely matter and affected less than 5% of its computers.

Pope joins anti-fracking crusade as more pressure comes on Shannon LNG project - Limerick Leader - FIRST it was the environmentalists and An Taisce. Then came heavy hitters like Mark Ruffalo aka The Hulk, documentary maker Michael Moore. Now Pope Francis and Cher have added their names to those opposed to fracking and to the proposed Shannon LNG plant at Tarbert Ballylongford. But, John Fox, PRO for Tarbert Development Association, is adamant that local support remains strong for the project, first proposed in 2006 and now being spearheaded by the US-based New Fortress Energy. “The problem with fracked gas, we firmly believe, is that it is a matter for the sovereign government of the USA,” he said. “They put a man on the moon. Surely they have the capacity and capability to resolve the fracking problem. As far as we are concerned, the Irish government says the gas coming in meets the European standard for gas. The country of origin should be satisfied they are doing no harm to their citizens or their environment. They should address their issues.” Mr Fox was speaking to the Limerick Leader just days after a photograph of Pope Francis appeared on social media, holding an anti-fracking t-shirt, alongside anti-fracking activist, scientist and fellow Argentinian, Esteban Servat. Servat, who sparked a huge anti-fracking movement in Argentina when he published a secret government study showing the pollution of water supplies from fracking and who was forced to flee his country, visited Pope Francis in the Vatican.

The Inevitable Finale Of The Nord Stream 2 Saga - Europe is quickly becoming one of the most important export destinations for gas exporters. Production is decreasing quickly due to political and technical developments. The next few decades are promising for exporters. Nord Stream 2 is arguably one of the most contentious projects currently under development. Denmark recently granted the last necessary permit to start construction activities in its EEZ and analysts now agree that the project’s completion is only a matter of time. In reality, the pipeline’s future was decided long before construction even started due to external factors such as Poland’s decision to diversify away from Russian gas and Western Europe’s determination to turn away from nuclear and fossil fuel production.  The availability and transportation of natural gas are determined by the relative distance between consumers and the production area. A general rule of thumb is that for a distance smaller than 4,000 km or 2,500 miles pipelines are more economic while LNG is more economic for distances larger than that. Political factors, however, trump financial and technical logic. The safety of supply is valued more by countries such as Poland who opt for more expensive alternatives such as the Baltic pipeline. Historically, the European energy market is dominated by Russia due to its proximity and massive energy reserves. Siberian gas is the most obvious choice from an economic point of view. Politics, however, are what currently dominates the natural gas industry. With that in mind, the persistent support for Nord Stream 2, NS2, by Western European countries and companies, most notably Germany, may appear strange. But a more in-depth look at energy politics in the region and domestic developments, in general, provide somewhat of an answer.European production is decreasing dramatically, primarily due to the depletion of old gas fields. Also, political motives hamper production such as in the Netherlands where tremors, allegedly due to gas extraction, have reduced political support for the industry. Europe’s biggest single gas deposit, the Groningen field in the Netherlands, will cease operations in 2022. The closure of this gas giant was another reason to support the construction of NS2. Poland is one of the staunchest opponents of NS2. The Eastern European country argues that Moscow is trying to divide Europe by circumventing traditional transit countries in the east and increasing dependency of the wealthier west, primarily Germany. Warsaw though has financial motives to oppose the project because Gazprom is aiming to export its gas directly to Germany instead of through what it considers more “unreliable” countries such as Ukraine and Poland. This measure will cost Eastern Europe billions in lost transit fees every year. Poland is diversifying suppliers by constructing a subsea pipeline from Norway through the Baltic sea. Denmark recently granted a permit to construct the infrastructure in its EEZ. The pipeline is planned to come online before 2022 when Poland’s import contract with Gazprom ends. 

ADNOC Makes LNG Supply Deals with BP and Total - Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC) reported Tuesday that it has signed supply agreements with units of BP plc and Total S.A. In a written statement emailed to Rigzone, the firm noted the supply deals effectively book out the majority of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) production through the first quarter of 2021 and gives its ADNOC LNG subsidiary access to new markets. “With these new supply agreements, ADNOC LNG has shown that it can react quickly and decisively to changing market conditions while ensuring the security and quality of delivery,” stated Fatema Al Nuaimi, CEO of ADNOC LNG. “With the support of our shareholders, we have maximized access to new markets with strong LNG growth potential.” ADNOC owns a 70-percent stake in ADNOC LNG, which produces approximately 6 million tons per annum of LNG at its complex on Das Island 99 miles (160 kilometers) offshore Abu Dhabi. Other ADNOC LNG shareholders include Mitsui & Co. (15 percent), BP (10 percent) and Total (five percent). ADNOC called the supply agreements with BP and Total “milestones,” applauding ADNOC LNG’s success in transitioning to a multi-customer marketing strategy implemented in April of this year. The company pointed out the new strategy has enabled it to shift from supplying 90 percent of its LNG molecules to a single utility customer in Japan to supplying 90 percent of its LNG molecules to a range of clients and receiving terminals in more than eight countries across southern and southeast Asia. The Japanese utility “remains an important customer,” ADNOC added.

South Sudan villagers relocated after oil leak -  More than 2,000 South Sudanese villagers reportedly have been relocated following an oil spill in a remote part of Northern Liech state. Gatkouth Ruach says he and other villagers were moved to a different part of the state after a pipeline burst Nov. 7 in Budang County. State Health Minister Kur Yai Nop denied anyone was relocated, saying there are no human settlements near the affected area. "The people who are staying there are oil company staff. There is no community there, they are very far," Nop told VOA's South Sudan in Focus. But Ruach told a different story. "When the leak happened, those who are in the area were relocated to another place from the oil-spilled area. Some of them are taken to Laloba, and others [were taken] to a place called Thirty Mile," he told South Sudan in Focus. Ruach said his village was flooded with crude oil and many families and cattle were affected by the spill. "People are staying close to it and with their cattle. It is affecting people, causing diarrhea and other diseases. Up to this week, the oil is full on the ground. Cattle are playing in it and children as well, and the children are now suffering," Ruach told VOA. The ruptured pipeline is owned by Greater Nile Pioneer Operating Company, a Chinese-owned company that has refineries in Khartoum and Port Sudan. 

Egypts environmental agency files complaint due to Red Sea - The Red Sea Regional Branch of the Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency (EEAA) in Hurghada will file a legal complaint against the General Petroleum Company (GPC) in Ras Ghareb for polluting the Ras Ghareb Corniche Beach with crude oil and harming the environment, environmental activists said on Sunday. The agency will file the complaint to the Red Sea Prosecution to investigate, the activists added. The technical report’s results claimed that the crude oil footprint taken from the Ras Ghareb Beach matched with the company’s crude oil. The activists said that the branch will assign the technical committee to identify the financial compensations which the company will pay for the crude oil pollution. The EEAA has continued its oil pollution control work, which includes cleaning the oil spots along the one-kilometer Ras Ghareb Corniche Beach, fearing that the pollution will extend to further areas and harm the environment. Crude oil spills re-emerged on November 6 on the Ras Ghareb Corniche beach, which has been the site of petroleum pollution from crude oil in several areas. A committee of environmental researchers from the Red Sea moved to the pollution site, obtained a sample of the spill, and sent it to the laboratories of the Environmental Affairs Agency in Suez to determine the spill’s source, in order to carry out legal action amid calls from Ras Ghareb citizens to stop the frequent oil pollution on the city’s shores. The Environment Ministry announced on July 5 that it spotted a crude oil spill covering 1,500 meters off the coastal area of Ras Ghareb, north of the Red Sea governorate, and declared a state of emergency while cooperating with the Petroleum Ministry to determine the spill’s source. The marine environment protection societies warned against the recurrence of the oil pollution crisis, as it poses a grave danger to the environment through causing the death of marine life and polluting diving areas and coral reefs.

6 killed in fire caused by oil spill in northern Egypt - At least six people were killed and 15 others injured in a fire caused by the leakage of an oil pipeline in Beheira Province north of the capital Cairo, the Egyptian Ministry of Health said in a statement.The ministry sent 20 ambulances to the scene and moved the wounded to nearby hospitals, according to the statement, Xinhua news agency reported.The Ministry of Petroleum said on Wednesday that the leakage was caused by a failed theft attempt that left a hole in the pipeline which led to oil spill in and around a canal in a Al-Mawasir village of Beheira''s Itay el-Baroud city.Beheira''s senior officials said crowds of villagers rushed to the site of the oil spill and the later fire resulted in casualties among them. "The fire was completely contained and extinguished," Secretary-General of Beheira Province Hazem al-Ashmouny told the Egyptian state TV, offering condolences to the families of the victims.

Iran discovers new oil field with over 50 billion barrels (AP) — Iran has discovered a new oil field in the country’s south with over 50 billion barrels of crude, its president said Sunday, a find that could boost the country’s proven reserves by a third as it struggles to sell energy abroad over U.S. sanctions. The announcement by Hassan Rouhani comes as Iran faces crushing American sanctions after the U.S. pulled out of its nuclear deal with world powers last year. Rouhani made the announcement in a speech in the desert city of Yazd. He said the field was located in Iran’s southern Khuzestan province, home to its crucial oil industry. Some 53 billion barrels would be added to Iran’s proven reserves of roughly 150 billion, he said. “I am telling the White House that in the days when you sanctioned the sale of Iranian oil and pressured our nation, the country’s dear workers and engineers were able to discover 53 billion barrels of oil in a big field,” Rouhani said. Oil reserves refer to crude that’s economically feasible to extract. Figures can vary wildly by country due to differing standards, though it remains a yardstick of comparison among oil-producing nations. Iran currently has the world’s fourth-largest proven deposits of crude oil and the world’s second-largest deposits of natural gas. It shares a massive offshore field in the Persian Gulf with Qatar. The new oil field could become Iran’s second-largest field after one containing 65 billion barrels in Ahvaz. The field is 2,400 square kilometers (925 square miles), with the deposit some 80 meters (260 feet) deep, Rouhani said. Since the U.S. withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal, the other countries involved — Germany, France, Britain, Russia and China — have been struggling to save it. However, they’ve offered no means by which Iran can sell its oil abroad. Any company or government that buys Iran’s oil faces harsh U.S. sanctions, the threat of which also stopped billions of dollars in business deals and sharply depreciated Iran’s currency, the rial.

Saudi Arabia raises October oil output to replenish inventories - (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia raised its oil output in October to 10.3 million barrels per day but kept its supply to the oil markets below its OPEC output target, a Saudi industry source familiar with the kingdom’s oil operations told Reuters. Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, told OPEC that its production in September fell by 660,000 barrels per day (bpd) from August to 9.13 million bpd in the wake of attacks on its energy installations. Oil supply to the markets stood at 9.890 million bpd in October, the Saudi source said, adding that the 400,000 bpd difference between production and supply was moved to inventories. “Saudi Aramco (is) replenishing its inventories, which it earlier drew upon during September 2019, in order to supply the needs of its customers despite being subject to the most serious act of aggression in the history of the industry,” the source said.

Saudi Aramco will offer less than 1% of shares to individual investors in IPO - Saudi Aramco will sell up to 0.5% of its shares to individual investors in what could be the largest initial public offering in history. The world’s biggest oil company released a prospectus Saturday, providing further information but without revealing the precise size of its planned share offering. Saudi Aramco said the process begins Nov. 17 and closes Dec. 4. A final offer price, as well as the number and percentage of company shares that will be sold, will be determined at the end of that period. The prospectus says individual investors will have until Nov. 28 to request shares, noting that “up to 0.5%” of the company’s shares will be allocated to individual investors. Saudi Aramco confirmed plans to pay annual, aggregate cash dividends of at least $75 billion starting in calendar year 2020, in addition to any special dividends. However, investors can’t yet gauge the value of those dividends’ yield relative to other companies until they can clearly assess the valuation of Saudi Aramco and its shares. Dividend investors are attracted to steady returns, and they try to put their money into stocks with the best yields. Exxon Mobil shares have a dividend yield of 4.92%, based on their Friday closing price of $70.77 per share. Chevron’s yield stands at 3.94%, and BP comes in at 6.28%. The Saudi government will face a lockup period of six months on further sales of shares after Aramco’s public offering. The IPO is being underwritten by J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley, among others. Aramco said last week that it plans to float its shares on the Saudi Stock Exchange — known as the Tadawul — in December. Analysts’ valuations of the company have varied from $1.2 trillion to $2.3 trillion. In comparison, Aramco’s closest U.S. rival, Exxon Mobil, has a market cap of nearly $300 billion and Chevron is valued at about $229 billion. The much-anticipated IPO was first flagged in 2016 by the government of Saudi Arabia, and has faced multiple delays, reportedly amid concerns its finances would be publicly scrutinized. Drone attacks on its key oil facilities in September also raised worries about security and threatened to jeopardize its planned listing.

Saudi Aramco unveils IPO prospectus, will sell up to 0.5% of shares to individual investors -  — Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil giant Aramco released a lengthy document late Saturday that lays the ground for investors to buy into the world’s most profitable company, but it remains unknown how much is on offer. In its preliminary prospectus, Aramco revealed that it will sell up to 0.5% of its shares to individual retail investors. It did not indicate how much will be made available to institutional investors. Still, the highly-anticipated sale of even less than 2% of the company has been generating global buzz because even a sliver would make this the world’s biggest initial public offering. Read: Here’s what investors need to know about Saudi Aramco’s landmark IPO Saudi Aramco is the kingdom’s oil and gas producer, pumping more than 10 million barrels of crude oil a day, or some 10% of global demand. Despite questions over Aramco’s valuation and how much of the company will ultimately be for sale on Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul stock exchange, the company’s size and profitability has made it undeniably attractive to potential investors. The oil and gas company netted profits of $111 billion last year, more than Apple, Royal Dutch Shell and Exxon Mobil combined. Trading on Saudi Arabia’s domestic exchange could begin as soon as Dec. 11, according to state-linked media. Aramco does not appear to have any immediate plans to list more of the company on an international exchange, although there have been talks with major exchanges in recent years. In the roughly 650-page prospectus, Aramco said the offering period for investors will begin Nov. 17. It will close for individual investors on Nov. 28 and for institutional investors on Dec. 4. Aramco will price its shares on Dec. 5, according to the document. The company stated its plans to pay out an annual dividend of at least $75 billion starting in 2020, but questions linger over how much Aramco is worth. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman priced the company’s value at $2 trillion, but analysts estimate the value is closer to $1.5 trillion.

Saudi Aramco stock could price at volatile time for the oil market - The initial public offering of Saudi Arabia’s big oil company could be priced right in the middle of what could be a volatile period for oil.Saudi Aramco intends to price its IPO on Dec. 5, the same day OPEC begins its regular two-day meeting in Vienna. The Aramco stock, equal to 0.5% of the company, is expected to trade on the Saudi Tadawul Exchange several days later, and market talk has focused on Saudi Arabia’s desire for higher and steadier prices.Saudi Arabia Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has been looking for a $2 trillion value for Aramco, but bankers have said it is worth more like $1.5 trillion. Aramco said the company is worth $1.5 trillion at an oil price of $45; $1.76 trillion at $65, and $2.1 trillion at $75 per barrel, according to reports.Analysts say there could be conflicts at OPEC’s meeting this year,. Saudi Arabia has been trying to rein in producers, such as Iraq and Nigeria, which are not complying with the production cuts OPEC agreed to with Russia and others. Some traders expect the agreed cuts of 1.2 million barrels a day to be increased, but Saudi Arabia is reportedly not in favor of changing the target until at least March, when the agreement runs out. “Obviously, the biggest thing that’s going to decide where crude prices go in the next two or three weeks is going to be the OPEC meeting,”   “It looks like Russia is being a little bit antsy and not willing to move, and you have the Aramco IPO is pretty much intertwined with that meeting,” said Bradley. Underwriters are expected to run a book-building process between Nov. 17 and Dec. 4, during which time institutional investors will be expected to submit orders.’

Saudi Arabia's Final Attempt To Boost Aramco's Valuation - Saudi Arabia is gearing up for the Aramco IPO, pulling out all the stops to boost the company’s valuation. But it’s a desperate attempt that is riddled with risk. Saudi Arabia is reportedly bullying the ultra-rich in the country to invest their money in the offering, a pressure campaign that has echoes in the 2017 Ritz-Carlton shakedown.Aramco is also dangling the possibility of larger-than-advertised dividend payouts to investors. “Aramco management has stressed the possibility of additional distributions to shareholders above and beyond the minimum dividend pledge,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a report for investors seen by the Financial Times. Higher dividends would be made possible by borrowing, while the notion is also hinged on some optimistic assumptions on higher oil prices and steady increases in free cash flow.But major banks are still not coming through for Aramco, putting valuation ranges on the company well below the $2 trillion figure that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman wants. “This is marketing material,” one banker told the FT, referring to the optimistic assumptions that Aramco is peddling regarding future oil prices.Bank of America, for instance, says the company may be worth between $1.2 and $2.3 trillion, which, to be fair, would still produce a staggering number, although the range the bank offered is nebulously large. Related: How Much Oil Is Up For Grabs In Syria?Some press reports suggest that MbS has come around to the idea of a lower valuation, perhaps in the range of $1.7 trillion. But, again, even that revised number could be overly optimistic. The danger is that the IPO flops and the share price slides, burning investors along the way. China may invest $5 to $10 billion in the company, but from China’s perspective, the investment serves geopolitical goals arguably as much or more than any financial outcome.Ultimately, there are large questions surrounding the unique nature of Aramco, huge profits notwithstanding. The Abqaiq attack highlighted geopolitical risks to the company’s operations, revealing that a sizable portion of the country’s assets could be knocked out essentially overnight by an unexpected attack. That certainly has to be factored into the valuation of the company.Meanwhile, Aramco can make promises to investors, but at the end of the day, t he company and its shareholders would be entirely at the mercy of the King and his political goals, leaving little to no legal recourse for investors.

The Middle East is launching a new oil benchmark to rival WTI and Brent - The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) and nine of the world’s largest energy traders have partnered with the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) to set up the world’s first Murban crude oil futures contracts. ICE Futures Abu Dhabi (IFAD) and ICE Murban futures are slated for launch in early 2020, subject to regulatory approvals, and will seek to rival well-established light crude oil benchmarks WTI and Brent. Among the companies joining state-owned Adnoc, which produces around 1.7 million barrels of Murban crude daily, to take stakes in the new oil bourse are energy behemoths BP, Shell, Total, PetroChina and Vitol. Murban is a light crude grade, a substantial proportion of which is exported from Fujairah via the Gulf of Oman, with Abu Dhabi’s overall production currently standing at around 3 million barrels a day. Adnoc Group CEO and UAE Minister of State Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber said in a statement Monday that “having a new, independent exchange in Abu Dhabi will not only benefit the UAE, but also physical and financial oil traders around the world.” IFAD will also be competing with the Dubai/Oman benchmark, operated by Dubai Mercantile Exchange (DME). The development could shake up the pricing of oil in the region. While most Middle Eastern oil producers use rates in the futures market as a basis for oil pricing, Adnoc has historically priced retroactively. “The futurization of Murban cargoes will act as a boon for buyers because it will allow them to know what they are paying in advance,” . “This is in contrast to the current retroactive pricing mechanism. What is more, buyers should now benefit from more hedging opportunities in the future markets.”

EU Majors Take Stakes in Abu Dhabi Oil Bourse -- BP Plc, Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Total SA and Vitol Group are among partners in a new exchange to trade Abu Dhabi’s flagship oil grade in what could become a new price benchmark for a fifth of the world’s crude. Intercontinental Exchange Inc. Chairman Jeffrey Sprecher confirmed the partnerships, speaking on Monday to reporters in Abu Dhabi. Other partners in the exchange are Petrochina Co., Inpex Corp. and JXTG Holdings Inc. of Japan, PTT Pcl of Thailand, and South Korea-based GS Caltex Corp., he said. Although oil producers across the Persian Gulf pump about a fifth of the world’s oil, they have never had a region-wide, exchange-traded crude benchmark. Adnoc wants the Murban futures contract to become a benchmark for crude from the Middle East, the world’s biggest oil exporting region. Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. will join major international oil companies, traders and customers as founding partners in a platform operated by ICE for the trading of futures contracts in Abu Dhabi’s flagship Murban crude, Adnoc Chief Executive Officer Sultan Al Jaber said in a speech earlier Monday. Murban futures will allow buyers to hedge in the open market, he said. Trading Start Murban crude futures are likely to begin trading around June, and are set to be the benchmark for other Abu Dhabi grades, Al Jaber said in an interview after ICE’s announcement. ICE will be a majority shareholder in the Abu Dhabi futures exchange, he said.

UAE oil benchmark plan confused by Brent comment U-turn - (Reuters) - A United Arab Emirates plan to launch its own global oil benchmark was thrown into confusion on Tuesday after comments made by its own national oil company. ADNOC first said it sees Murban as a contract to replace the global Brent benchmark, only to retract the comment. The development highlights a complex nature of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company’s (ADNOC) Murban futures contract. It will be traded on a new local exchange, ICE Futures Abu Dhabi (IFAD), that will be co-owned by Abu Dhabi, several oil majors and the Intercontinental Exchange Inc, which is also home to Brent trading. “We want to give the industry Murban as a replacement for Brent crude futures,” Philippe Khoury, the head of trading at ADNOC, told Abu Dhabi’s main annual oil show. He said Brent production volumes were declining. The industry has long complained about falling North Sea production which makes Brent illiquid and vulnerable to manipulations. But ADNOC later retracted Khoury’s comment and changed it to “our ambition is for the market to use Murban as a price marker alongside Brent crude futures, the global benchmark for oil”. ADNOC said it was retracting the comments because they did not reflect the company’s position.

OPEC+ Risks Oil Slump Below $50 - With their next meeting just weeks away, OPEC and its partners are showing no impetus for stronger action to support oil prices. But without intervention, some influential forecasters say a new supply glut could send the market crashing early next year. Crude prices, trading at about $62 a barrel in London, may tumble almost 30% to $45 a barrel if the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies don’t announce deeper production cutbacks, according to Morgan Stanley. Citigroup Inc. and BNP Paribas SA predict a slide to the low $50s. That would intensify the strain on group members like Venezuela, Iran and Iraq, which are already reeling from economic crises and political unrest. It would also ripple through the rest of the industry, hitting the shale boom that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s biggest oil producer. “The prospect of oversupply looms over the market in 2020,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley. “Either OPEC deepens its cuts, or prices will fall to about $45 a barrel, and force a slowdown in U.S. shale that balances the market.” Oil supplies from outside OPEC are set to expand twice as fast as global demand next year, as a fragile economy crimps consumption while new supplies flood in from the U.S., Norway and Brazil, the group’s data show. If Saudi Arabia, Russia and others who reined in production this year don’t deepen the cutbacks when they meet in Vienna on Dec. 5 to 6, prices will almost certainly weaken, the banks say. While OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said the group and its partners are prepared to do “whatever it takes” to prevent another rout, delegates say that the biggest producers in the coalition aren’t pushing for further reductions. Oman’s Oil Minister Mohammed Al Rumhy said on Tuesday the group will likely stick with current output levels. The Saudis appear to have little appetite for further sacrifices. The kingdom had already cut output more than twice as deep as initially foreseen in October, while others in the alliance -- particularly Iraq and Nigeria -- haven’t delivered on their commitments, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Russia faces less budgetary pressure than its OPEC counterparts and thus less urgency to act.

The One Factor Driving Today's Oil Markets - Oil continues to seesaw on every rumor (positive or negative) regarding the U.S.-China trade war. As a result, a lot of attention will be paid to President Trump’s speech today at the New York Economic Club, where he may provide more clues into what to expect next. Markets are betting on an easing of tariffs.  . Saudi Arabia ratcheted up oil production to 10.3 mb/d in October, although it supplied 9.89 mb/d to the market, with the rest diverted into storage in order to rebuild inventories after the Abqaiq attack.  Bolivian President Evo Morales stepped down (or was ousted in a coup, depending on one’s point of view), and is seeking exile in Mexico. The political turmoil could descend into deeper violence. Royal Dutch Shell, Total, and Respol “have all stopped or severely limited drilling on exploration wells,” Bloomberg reported. There isn’t evidence that existing production has been affected, but new drilling has been suspended for now. . A warmer-than-expected weather forecast for the U.S. winter from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration led to a selloff in U.S. natural gas prices. As a result, share prices of major shale gas producers fell sharply. EQT. the largest gas producer in the U.S., saw its share price plunge by 9 percent on Monday. The forecast comes even as freezing temperatures have swept over much of the continent. Low prices are hitting the entire gas sector hard. Iran said that it has discovered a giant oil field in the country’s south, a field that may hold as much as 50 billion barrels of oil. That is almost as big as all of the reserves held in the U.S., which stands at around 61 billion barrels.

2019 Marks Nadir of Oil Demand Growth - This year will mark the nadir of oil demand growth over the next five years, according to a new report from Fitch Solutions Macro Research (FSMR). “We forecast demand to grow by around 0.5 percent this year, rising to 0.8 percent in 2020. While this puts our growth forecasts significantly below consensus, it is consistent with the excessive weakness we have seen in monthly data in the year to date,” FSMR analysts stated in the report. “Demand has faced a perfect storm of global macro headwinds, fueling broad-based weakness from the top down, and a host of idiosyncratic barriers to growth, dragging on demand at the individual market level,” the analysts added. In the note, FSMR analysts noted that developing markets in Asia had been an “outlier” and continued to post strong demand growth this year. “While India and China have dominated in volume terms, growth has been fairly broad-based across the region,” the analysts stated. “In contrast, developed markets – which have enjoyed some cyclical boosts to growth in recent years – are falling back into structural decline,” FSMR analysts added. According to OPEC’s latest world oil outlook report, which was published earlier this month, global oil demand will hit 1.14 million barrels per day (MMbpd) in 2019 and 2020. This will then drop to 1.03 MMbpd in 2021, 970,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2022, 920,000 bpd in 2023 and 850,000 bpd in 2024. In the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest oil market report, which was released last month, the organization forecasts oil demand growth of 1 MMbpd in 2019 and 1.2 MMbpd in 2020. In July, the IEA revealed that oil supply exceeded demand by 900,000 bpd in the first half of 2019.

Global oil demand growth to slow from 2025-IEA - (Reuters) - Global oil demand growth is expected to slow from 2025 as fuel efficiency improves and the use of electrified vehicles increases but is unlikely to peak in the next two decades, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday. The Paris-based IEA, which advises Western governments on energy policy, said in its annual World Energy Outlook for the period to 2040 that demand growth would continue to increase even though there would be a marked slowdown in the 2030s. The agency’s central scenario - which incorporates existing energy policies and announced targets - is for demand for oil to rise by around 1 million barrels per day (bpd) on average every year to 2025, from 97 million bpd in 2018. Demand is then seen increasing by 0.1 million bpd a year on average during the 2030s to reach 106 million bpd in 2040. “There is a material slowdown after 2025, but this does not lead to a definitive peak in oil use,” the IEA said, citing increased demand from trucks and the shipping, aviation and petrochemicals sectors. Oil use in passenger cars is, however, seen peaking in the late 2020s as drivers switch to electric vehicles.

Oil Prices Fall Amid Mixed Sino-U.S. Trade War Signals - Oil prices fell on Monday in Asia after U.S. President Donald Trump said trade talks with China are moving along “very nicely,” but denied reports from last week that the two sides have agreed to roll back on some existing tariffs on each others’ goods. U.S. Crude Oil WTI Futures fell 0.9% to $56.71 by 1:10 AM ET (05:10 GMT). International Brent Oil Futures also dropped 0.9% to $61.91. Oil prices surged almost 10% since early October amid reports at the time that suggested China and the U.S., the world’s biggest oil imports, were moving closer to a partial trade deal. Also weighing on the market were data over the weekend that showed that China's producer prices fell the most in more than three years in October. In other news, OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said last week that the outlook of oil market for 2020 may have upside potential, suggesting that there is no need to cut output further. The OPEC+ alliance agreed last year to cut output by 1.2 million barrels per day since January until March 2020 in order to boost oil prices.

Oil slips as trade worries offset Cushing drawdown - (Reuters) - Oil prices edged lower on Monday as little progress on U.S.-China trade negotiations kept prices pressured, but bullish inventory data in the United States offered some support.  Brent crude LCOc1 futures lost 33 cents to settle at $62.18 a barrel, after falling to $61.57 earlier in the session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 fell 38 cents to settle at $56.86 a barrel. Investors are worried about fallout from the 16-month U.S.-China trade war, which has slowed economic growth around the world and prompted analysts to lower forecasts for oil demand, raising concerns that a supply glut could develop in 2020. “We expect the sideward trading to continue for the time being, with the trade conflict headlines likely to dictate the direction,” Commerzbank said in a note. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Saturday that trade talks with China were moving along “very nicely” but the United States would only make a deal if it was the right one for America. Trump also said there had been incorrect reporting about U.S. willingness to lift tariffs as part of a “phase one” agreement, news of which had boosted markets. Underlining the impact of the trade war, data over the weekend showed that China’s producer prices fell the most in more than three years in October.

 Oil Prices Climb, Reversing Early Losses Before Trump Speech - Oil prices climbed on Tuesday, reversing early losses amid hopes that U.S. President Donald Trump would use a speech later in the day to indicate progress towards resolving the protracted U.S.- China trade war. Trump will speak at 12 PM ET (1700 GMT) at the Economic Club of New York, and investors are keen for an update on the trade talks with China after recent reports indicated that the mooted ‘phase-1’ deal may not be finalized until December. Prices had come under pressure on Monday amid concerns over slower economic growth and the outlook for oil demand due to the fallout from the 16-month trade conflict between the world’s two largest economies. Brent crude, the global benchmark, was up 30 cents at $62.48 a barrel by 08:07 AM ET (01:07 GMT), after falling as low as $61.90. U.S. crude futures were 13 cents higher at $56.96 per barrel. "The oil market is in a holding pattern," said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM. "The next $5-$10 move will be decided by economic and trade considerations." Trump "is widely expected to delay his decision to impose tariffs on European car and auto part imports and will also shed further light on the status of the trade negotiations with China," Varga added. "Market participants continue to believe in a (partial) trade agreement to be signed soon," said Carsten Fritsch, analyst at Commerzbank. "Increasing doubts about this would put oil prices under pressure." Oil prices were also underpinned by U.S. data showed that crude inventories at Cushing, the delivery point for WTI, fell by about 1.2 million barrels in the week to Nov. 8, traders said, citing market intelligence firm Genscape.

Oil pares gains on US-China trade doubts - Oil prices steadied after rising about 1% on Tuesday following a speech from U.S. President Donald Trump that offered few new details about Washington’s trade talks with Beijing. Concerns about slower economic growth and oil demand due to the fallout from the 16-month trade dispute between the world’s two biggest economies pressured oil. Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, fell 8 cents to settle at $62.10 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude shed 8 cents to settle at $56.80 a barrel. Prices eased from earlier gains after Trump’s remarks to a lunch gathering of The Economic Club of New York included mixed messages about U.S.-China trade talks and excluded specifics about any progress in negotiations. The U.S. president said on Saturday that talks with China were moving along “very nicely” but the United States would make a deal only if it was the right one. He said there had been incorrect reporting about U.S. willingness to lift tariffs. Prices received earlier support from U.S. data that showed crude inventories at Cushing, the delivery point for WTI, fell by about 1.2 million barrels in the week to Nov. 8, traders said, citing market intelligence firm Genscape. Inventories at the hub were expected to draw down after a more than 9,000-barrel leak forced the 590,000-barrel-per-day Keystone crude pipeline to be shut in late October. The line has since been restarted at reduced pressure. Cushing inventories had grown for five weeks in a row through Nov. 1, according to government data. However, crude stockpiles nationwide were forecast to have risen last week for a third week in a row, a preliminary poll ahead of government data due on Thursday showed. Weekly energy data has been delayed a day due to the Veterans Holiday on Monday. Brent has risen 16% in 2019, supported by a supply-limiting pact by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia. The producers meet on Dec. 5-6 to decide whether to extend the deal.

Oil steadies after Trump dashes hopes on trade deal details - (Reuters) - Oil prices ended Tuesday little changed after paring gains of about 1% following a speech from U.S. President Donald Trump that offered few new details about Washington’s trade talks with Beijing. Concerns about slower economic growth and oil demand due to the fallout from the 16-month trade dispute between the world’s two biggest economies have weighed on crude futures. Brent crude futures ended the session down 12 cents at $62.06 a barrel after trading between $62.85 and $61.82. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled down 6 cents at $56.80 a barrel. Prices pared earlier gains after Trump’s remarks to a lunch gathering of The Economic Club of New York included mixed messages about U.S.-China trade talks and excluded specifics about any progress in negotiations. Trump said U.S. and Chinese negotiators were “close” to a “phase one” trade deal, but largely repeated well-worn rhetoric about China’s “cheating” on trade. Earlier, prices received support from data that showed crude inventories at Cushing, the delivery point for WTI, fell by about 1.2 million barrels in the week to Nov. 8, traders said, citing market intelligence firm Genscape.

 Oil edges up ahead of US storage data as OPEC, Fed see robust economy Oil prices edged up on Wednesday after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said it saw no signs of global recession and rival U.S. shale oil production could grow by much less than expected in 2020. Also supporting prices were comments by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who said the U.S. economy would see a “sustained expansion” with the full impact of recent interest rate cuts still to be felt. “The baseline outlook remains favorable,” Powell said. Brent crude futures gained 31 cents to settle at $62.37, having fallen by over 1% earlier in the day. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $57.17 per barrel, gaining 32 cents or 0.6%. Analysts said WTI was up more than Brent ahead of storage data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday that is expected to show a supply draw at the Cushing hub in Oklahoma and a smaller than normal increase in total U.S. crude stocks. “We look for WTI to be better supported than the rest of the complex ahead of tomorrows weekly EIA report,” Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Illinois, said in a report. OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo said global economic fundamentals remained strong and that he was still confident the United States and China would reach a trade deal. “It will almost remove that dark cloud that had engulfed the global economy,” Barkindo said, adding it was too early to discuss the output policy of OPEC’s December meeting. He also said some U.S. companies were now saying oil production would grow by just 0.3-0.4 million barrels per day next year - or less than half of previous expectations - reducing the risk of an oil glut next year. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday Washington and Beijing were close to finalizing a trade deal, but he fell short of providing a date or venue for the signing ceremony. “The expectations of an inventory build in the U.S. and uncertainty over the OPEC+ strategy on output cuts and U.S./China trade deal are weighing on oil prices,” In the United States, analysts forecast crude oil inventories climbed 1.6 million barrels last week, which would be the third weekly increase in a row, according to a Reuters poll on Tuesday. That compares with a 10.3 million barrel build during the same week in 2018 and a five-year average increase for the week of 3.7 million barrels.

WTI Extends Gains After Surprise Crude Draw - Oil price rebounded after three days lower after a report that OPEC sees a potential reduction in supply from outside of the group. When the OPEC news hit the market, prices “started to rally from the red to the green,” said Bob Yawger, future divisions director for Mizuho Securities in New York. “Until this turnaround, things were getting ugly.”  And now all eyes are on inventories... API:

• Crude -0.5mm (+1.5mm exp)
• Cushing -1.2mm
• Gasoline +2.3mm
• Distillates +0.8mm

A surprise crude draw and the end of the streak of Cushing builds corresponds with an end to the streak of draws in products... WTI had rallied on the day and hovered around $57.25 before the data. Once API reported the surprise draw, WTI jumped higher...

WTI Slides After Surprise Crude Build, New Record Production  - Oil prices extended gains overnight after API reported a surprise crude draw and OPEC’s top official talked about the potential for a “sharp” slowdown in American shale output next year.“Today, the market will focus on the release of official U.S. oil statistics by the Energy Information Administration,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity markets strategy at BNP Paribas SA in London.“As usual, the mood ahead of the EIA release is being set by the preliminary numbers released by the API the day before.”Of course, all that enthusiasm could evaporate if inventories are seen surging...  DOE:

• Crude +2.22mm (+1.5mm exp)
• Cushing -1.229mm
• Gasoline +1.861mm
• Distillates -2.477mm

Completely reversing last night's API-reported draw, official data shows a bigger than expected 2,.22mm crude inventory build,  While OPEC hopes for a decline, US crude production surged to a new record high despite the collapse in rig counts.

Oil falls on larger-than-expected US inventory -- Oil prices fell on Thursday as U.S. crude futures were pressured by a build in domestic inventories and record production, while forecasts from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries for a lower-than-expected oil surplus supported Brent. Brent futures fell 7 cents to settle at $62.30 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 35 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $56.77. U.S. crude stockpiles grew last week by 2.2 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.649 million-barrel rise, as production hit a record high, the Energy Information Administration said. “It’s really about the inventory report today,” said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. “The build in crude oil supply was a bit of a disappointment.” Crude production rose by 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) to a weekly record of 12.8 million bpd, the EIA said in its weekly report delayed a day by Monday’s U.S. Veterans Day holiday. “We might be over-producing a bit and leaving it sitting in the storage tanks,” said Ryan Kaup, a commodities broker at CHS Hedging. The market earlier rose about 1% after OPEC pointed to a smaller surplus in the oil market next year although it still expects demand for its crude to drop as rivals pump more. OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo also said on Wednesday that there would likely be downward revisions of supply going into 2020, especially from U.S. shale. Barkindo said it was too early to say whether further output cuts would be needed. The drop in demand could press the case for the exporter group and partners like Russia to maintain supply curbs at a meeting on Dec. 5-6.

Oil Markets Ignore Worrying OPEC Projections - It was a big week for oil market data and projections this week, with both OPEC and the IEA releasing some key reports for the industry. Despite this influx of new data, oil is set to close out the week little changed from a week earlier. It was a relatively quiet week in terms of volatility, with the U.S.-China trade war maintaining its firm grip over oil markets.   Weak demand and rising non-OPEC supply presents a “major challenge” to OPEC next year, according to a new report from the IEA. The agency said that non-OPEC supply could grow by 2.3 mb/d in 2020, higher than the 1.8 mb/d this year. As a result, demand for OPEC’s oil will decline by around 1 mb/d. “The hefty supply cushion that is likely to build up during the first half of next year will offer cold comfort to OPEC+ ministers gathering in Vienna at the start of next month,” it added. . The European Investment Bank announced on Thursday plans to end financing for fossil fuel projects around the world, a decision that will take effect in 2021. In the interim, only projects currently in the works will go forward. Instead, the EIB said it would unlock 1 trillion euros ($1.1 trillion) for climate change action. “We will stop financing fossil fuels and we will launch the most ambitious climate investment strategy of any public financial institution anywhere,” said EIB President Werner Hoyer. The EIB is the world’s largest multilateral lender.   Minnesota’s Attorney General, Keith Ellison, has joined a lawsuit in Michigan to shut down Enbridge’s Line 5 pipeline. Offshore oil production could hit a peak in 2020 before entering decline. After supply additions next year, a dearth of new projects go forward, according to a report from Sanford Bernstein. For investors, the opportunity is huge because there is a scenario in which industry spending falls but oil prices rise. The recent failed auction in Brazil lends some weight to the theory that the industry might stay away from future offshore spending. OPEC+ is likely to extend its production cuts through the end of 2020 at the upcoming meeting in Vienna, rather than deepening the cuts. “There is always a risk that if we cut deeper and prices rise, those [U.S.] companies could change their plans to hike production,” a Gulf OPEC delegate told the Wall Street Journal. “OPEC would ensure that won’t happen.”   Famed activist investor Carl Icahn is pressuring Occidental Petroleum to sell some of its assets after the $38 billion takeover of Anadarko Petroleum.  The IEA released its highly-anticipated annual World Energy Outlook this week, complete with forecasts to 2040. The agency said that oil demand will likely plateau in the 2030s, but emissions are still on track to rise through 2040. The IEA also saw U.S. shale growing strongly through 2030, nearly doubling in output, despite the current slowdown.

Oil rises on hopes for OPEC supply curbs, new optimism on US-China trade deal --Oil prices rose on Friday as OPEC’s outlook for oil demand next year fueled hopes that the producer group and its associates will keep a lid on supply when they meet to discuss policy on output next month. Optimism that the United States and China could soon sign an agreement to end their trade war also seeped into the market after White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said a deal was “getting close,” citing what he called very constructive discussions with Beijing. Brent crude futures were up 28 cents, or 0.5%, at $62.56 a barrel by 0441 GMT, having dropped 9 cents on Thursday. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 28 cents, or 0.5%, at $57.05 a barrel, after falling 0.6% in the previous session. The rosy mood came after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said on Thursday it expected demand for its oil to fall in 2020. Many analysts said that supports the view among markets that there’s a clear case for the group and other producers like Russia — collectively known as ‘OPEC+’ — to maintain limits on production that were introduced to cope with a supply glut. But such a move may backfire, according to Jonathan Barratt, chief investment officer at Probis Group. “If you push prices higher it is going to hurt everyone and even if it doesn’t, it’s only going to play into the U.S. producers’ hands.” OPEC+ on Jan. 1 cut output by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd), and in July, the alliance renewed the pact until March 2020. OPEC said demand for its crude would average 29.58 million barrels per day next year, 1.12 million bpd less than in 2019. That points to a 2020 surplus of about 70,000 bpd, which is less than indicated in previous reports. In the U.S., production keeps rising although there was a bigger-than-expected increase in U.S. stockpiles and rising production last week, something that would often lead investors to sell. Crude production rose by 200,000 bpd to a weekly record of 12.8 million bpd, the EIA said in its weekly report. U.S. crude inventories grew last week by 2.2 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration said, exceeding the 1.649 million-barrel rise forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll.

Oil prices hit 2-month high, close at $57.72 - Possible good news about the U.S.-China trade war sent crude prices to their highest level in nearly two months as that good news outweighed reports of record high U.S. oil production and rising crude stockpiles. West Texas Intermediate on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 95 cents, or 1.7 percent, to close at $57.72 per barrel Friday. The increase gave prices a 0.8 percent advance for the week. The posted price was raised $1 to $54.25 a barrel. However, prices have fallen about 13 percent since late April. Natural gas prices ended the week about 5 cents higher, gaining 4 cents Friday to close at $2.688 per Mcf.  The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has indicated it won’t cut output deeper to stave off the impending surplus and predicts worldwide supplies will exceed demand by about 645,000 barrels a day in the first half of next year. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency said soaring production outside OPEC and high inventories will keep consumers comfortably supplied next year.  U.S. crude output increased by 200,000 barrels a day to 12.8 million a day last week, according to Energy Information Administration data released on Thursday. While nationwide crude inventories rose, stockpiles at the key storage hub at Cushing, Oklahoma, declined for the first time in six weeks.

Oil prices gain 2% despite concerns about rising supplies (Reuters) - Oil futures gained nearly 2% on Friday as comments from a top U.S. official raised optimism for a U.S.-China trade deal, but worries about increasing crude supplies capped prices. Brent crude gained $1.02, or 1.6%, to settle at $63.30 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude rose 95 cents, or 1.7%, to settle at $57.72 a barrel. Both benchmarks posted their second straight weekly gain. Brent rose 1.3%, and WTI gained 0.8%. U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said in an interview on Fox Business Network that there was a very high probability the United States would reach a final agreement on a phase one trade deal with China. “We’re down to the last details now,” Ross said. U.S.-China trade talks were set to continue with a telephone call on Friday. A monthly report from the International Energy Agency weighed on prices, after it estimated that non-OPEC supply growth would surge to 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd) next year compared with 1.8 million bpd in 2019, citing production from the United States, Brazil, Norway and Guyana. “Today’s monthly IEA release offered some bearish aspects in the form of an unexpected upward adjustment in non-OPEC oil supply growth for next year that briefly forced WTI values to below yesterday’s lows,” said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates. OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo had painted a more upbeat picture earlier this week, saying growth in rival U.S. production would slow in 2020, although a report by the group had also said demand for OPEC oil was expected to dip. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said demand for its crude would average 29.58 million bpd next year, 1.12 million bpd less than in 2019, pointing to a 2020 surplus of about 70,000 bpd.

Oil Prices Higher for the Week - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil finished higher Friday, also showing week-on-week increases. The December WTI contract gained 95 cents Friday, settling at $57.72 per barrel. The light crude marker peaked at $57.97 and bottomed out at $56.43. Compared to the Nov. 8 close, WTI is up less than one percent. January Brent settled at $63.30 per barrel, reflecting a $1.02 gain. For the week, Brent is up 1.3 percent. Both the WTI and Brent grades exhibited “topsy-turvy” behavior during the holiday-shortened trade week, Tom Seng, Assistant Professor of Energy Business with the University of Tulsa’s Collins College of Business, told Rigzone. “Competing and conflicting signals kept the market on its toes as the week started out lower then rose, fell again and rallied higher today,” Seng said. “The market continues to react to statements about the progress or, a lack thereof, on a trade deal between the U.S. and China. Today’ White House Chief Economist Larry Kudlow pronounced that there are positive signs coming out of the negotiations.” Meanwhile, Seng observed that oil market players are looking toward next month’s OPEC+ meeting where the cartel and its associates are expected to agree to maintain current output levels through 2020. “The current quota caps expire in March, and the bigger question is whether or not Saudi Arabia will keep further cuts – seen as a move to help bolster its recent initial public offering,” he explained. “OPEC sees future demand for their oil dropping by 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) and may seek further cuts to output to stabilize prices. However, in their 2019 World Oil Outlook, the cartel also sees declining global production, citing a slowdown in U.S. shale production as a factor, among others.” The International Energy Agency (IEA), in its annual World Energy Outlook Report, states that – even with slowing U.S. shale oil production growth – the U.S. will still lead global production growth and affect the market share that OPEC and Russia now control, added Seng.  Seng also noted this week’s Weekly Petroleum Status report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed:

• A 2.2 million-barrel increase in domestic commercial crude inventories for last week – higher than the 1.5 million-barrel increase projected by Wall Street Journal analysts and significantly greater than the 541,000-barrel build reported Tuesday by the American Petroleum Institute
• Total crude oil stored at 449 million barrels, or three percent higher than the five-year average for this time of year
• A 1.2 million-barrel dip in oil stocks at the key Cushing, Okla., storage hub, lowering the total to 46.5 million barrels (approximately 60 percent of capacity)
• A 1.2-percent increase in refinery utilization to 15.9 million bpd, or 87.8 percent of capacity
• An 18.8-percent year-on-year drop in oil imports
• U.S. oil production at 12.8 million bpd – a full 1.1 million-bpd higher than the year-ago rate

Oil is a ‘broken barometer’ and ‘lagging indicator’ of Middle East tensions, energy expert says - Oil is a “broken barometer” and a “lagging indicator of Middle East stress,” according to Helima Croft, managing director and global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets. Investors are underestimating supply-side risks, Croft told CNBC at the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition & Conference on Monday. “We have a market that is singularly focused on the demand side; the whole idea that Chinese demand is going to go off a cliff,” said Croft, a closely-watched oil market expert. But China’s crude oil imports are resilient, she added. In October, crude oil imports into China rose 11.5% from a year earlier to a record high, Reuters reported. However, investors have been spooked by the fallout from the U.S.-China trade dispute and a global economic slowdown, leading to a broader market selloff and lackluster oil prices, Croft said. At the same time, they are also brushing off supply risks in the Middle East. “They’re looking at the Middle East saying ‘it’s noise, we’ve seen this before, even when we had the type of attacks which are almost unprecedented in this market. They are thinking ‘well, we can get over this, we have U.S. production and we have demand worries,’” she said. Considering U.S. sanctions on Iran, current oil prices are “amazing,” said Croft. The market is “basically saying ‘we are swimming in oil, it doesn’t matter; someone can fill every supply gap,’” she added. But there are considerations surrounding the oil market that present supply uncertainty, said Croft. Aside from geopolitical issues in the Middle East, any potential change in the U.S. presidency could also reshape the U.S. energy landscape, as well as the country’s approach toward Iran’s nuclear program, she said.

Yemen war: Saudi Arabia’s desperation could lead to the end of the conflict - The Yemen war is about to come to an end. A Saudi official admitted this week for the first time since 2016 that Riyadh is in talks with the Houthi rebels. The talks have surfaced despite the Houthis being in charge of the capital Sanaa and the other most populous parts in Northern Yemen, which indicates that the Saudis are coming to terms with this status quo. The radical approach of effectively flushing the Houthis out of the north has been abandoned. The new approach of accepting the Houthis as part of the new post-war reality in Yemen, on the other hand, is much more sophisticated. Saudi Arabia seems more open to some kind of coexistence with the Houthis in north Yemen through taking control over them from Iran. After signing the Riyadh power-sharing agreement between the separatist Southern Transitional Council and the UN-recognised government in Aden, Saudi Arabia and the UAE seem to be ready to move on to the next phase of their gouty war in Yemen. Instead of the endless fighting, Saudi Arabia is trying to convince the Houthis to sever ties with its regional rival, Iran. After all, all the Houthis want is legitimacy of their new strategic posture in Yemen. This, in their view, must be cited in a similar power-sharing agreement that guarantees their share in a federation-like new system that includes president Abedrabbo Mansour Hadi’s government and separatists in the south.The attack on the Saudi Aramco oil installations in September, which knocked out half of the Kingdom’s production, was a tipping point. This week, Aramco launched an initial public offering (IPO) to be listed on the local stock market, abandoning Mohamed bin Salman’s original plan to list it on overseas markets. The escalation with Iran began to have a direct effect on the Saudi economy. Moreover, the Yemen war is historic as it exposed Saudi Arabia’s national and geopolitical weaknesses. Besides the big holes in its defence strategy, Saudi Arabia has found itself vulnerable on an unprecedented level. Throughout the last two years (especially after Bashar al-Assad had appeared to be heading towards a decisive victory over his opponents in Syria) Iran has been clenching its fist on Iraq, the Levant and Yemen. This means effectively flanking Saudi Arabia from the north and south.

 Iran Is Blowing Past Enriched Uranium Limits, New IAEA Report Confirms -- The nuclear watchdog responsible for policing the Iran nuclear deal, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), confirmed in a report Monday that Iran has started enriching uranium at its underground Fordow site, in but the latest escalation in a trend which shows no sign of the sanctioned country slowing down on its vow to blow past limits set by the 2015 JCPOA.   According to the IAEA's quarterly report, Iran's enriched uranium levels and its purity "remain above the deal's limits" after months ago Iran's leaders threatened do to just this unless Washington lifts its crippling sanctions, which have left the country struggling to export its oil.  "Tehran is also enriching with more advanced centrifuges and enriching at Fordow, which the deal forbids," Reuters reports of the new findings.  This after early last week the country’s nuclear chief Ali Akbar Salehi announced on state television Iran is launching a new array of 30 advanced IR-6 centrifuges, bringing the total number to 60 IR-6 advanced centrifuges, in violation of its commitments under the nuclear deal.   Leaders in Tehran are currently feeling emboldened after President Hassan Rouhani made public in a speech on Sunday the discovery of a new oil field with over 50 billion barrels of crude in the country's south.  But despite having the world's fourth-largest proven deposits of crude oil, now set to increase by one-third based on estimates of the new crude find in Khuzestan province, Iran has struggled to evade Washington sanctions on its energy sector and sell to other countries. Even China, once seen as a major purchaser through which Iran could weather the US "maximum pressure" storm, has also found its sanctions busting companies the target of White House punitive actions.  Underscoring the urgency of the situation, IAEA officials on Monday said "it is essential for Iran to continue interactions with the agency," after Iran also expanded its number of centrifuges enriching uranium at Natanz facility, in what could soon see the nuclear program enter a point of no return.  Specifically, according to IAEA figures cited in Bloomberg, the Islamic Republic's enriched uranium stockpile rose 65% in the last quarter to 372kg, though the deal officially restricts this to no more than 300kg. In terms of purity Iran is now believed enriching up to level of 4.5%, while the deal permits 3.67%.

 European concerns raise prospect of renewed U.N. sanctions on Iran - (Reuters) - Europe’s threat to trigger a mechanism that could reimpose United Nations sanctions on Iran marks a significant breakdown in diplomacy to try to save the 2015 nuclear deal and could presage its death knell, diplomats say. Britain, France and Germany have sought to salvage the pact, under which Iran undertook to curtail its uranium enrichment program in return for relief from sanctions crippling its economy, since the United States withdrew last year. But the three European powers have failed to make good on the trade and investment dividends promised to Iran under the deal as they have been unable to shield Tehran from renewed U.S. sanctions that have strangled its vital oil trade. That has prompted Iran to renege step by step from its non-proliferation commitments under the deal. The U.N. nuclear watchdog (IAEA) confirmed on Monday that Iran had resumed enriching uranium in its underground Fordow plant and was rapidly accelerating enrichment with a variety of advanced centrifuge machines also banned by the deal. The move has alarmed European powers that had previously dismissed Tehran’s breaches, such as exceeding the cap on stockpiles of enriched uranium and on the fissile purity of enrichment, as insignificant and reversible. Britain, France, and Germany raised the prospect of a restoration of international sanctions for the first time late on Monday after a meeting of foreign ministers in Paris, saying they were ready “to consider all mechanisms ... including the dispute resolution mechanism”.

Iraqi forces capture major Baghdad bridges from protesters - — Iraqi security forces cleared three flashpoint bridges in Baghdad of anti-government protesters on Saturday, using stun grenades and tear gas amid heavy clashes, while three more protesters were killed in the southern city of Basra overnight. Mass protests erupted in Baghdad and across southern Iraq last month, calling for the overhaul of the political system established after the 2003 U.S.-led invasion. The demonstrations and a heavy-handed security response have resulted so far in more than 250 deaths. In the capital, demonstrators were pushed back under clouds of tear gas from the Sinak bridge to the nearby Khilani square, where 35 people were wounded, according to medical officials who spoke on condition of anonymity in line with regulations. Security forces moved on to regain control of two other bridges nearby, Ahrar and Shuhada. The bridges span the Tigris and give access to the heavily fortified Green Zone, the seat of government. Protesters have tried to force their way across on an almost daily basis. The day before, authorities found a bomb under the Sinak bridge, and carried out a controlled explosion of it, according to state television. In the southern city of Basra, three more protesters were killed overnight, raising to eight death toll since Thursday. Clashes with security forces also led to wounded in other parts of southern Iraq, including the city of Nasiriyah, according to security officials. The demonstrators complain of widespread corruption, lack of job opportunities and poor basic services, including regular power cuts, despite Iraq’s vast oil reserves. They have rejected government proposals for limited economic reforms, and instead called on the country’s political leadership to resign, including Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi.

Iraqi forces advance towards central Baghdad, kill at least five protesters  - Iraqi security forces killed at least five people on Saturday as they pushed protesters back towards their main camp in central Baghdad, using live ammunition, tear gas and sound bombs, police and medics said. The clashes wounded scores more people and put security forces back in control of all except one major bridge linking the Iraqi capital's eastern residential and business districts to government headquarters across the Tigris river, Reuters said. The government promised reforms aimed at ending the crisis. Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi said on Saturday that political parties had "made mistakes" in their running of the country, recognised the legitimacy of protest to bring about political change and pledged electoral reform. AFP correspondents saw people shot in the chest collapse to the pavement, while the booms of stun grenades and tear gas rang out. 'We can hear live fire now and there are so many wounded' - Doctor "The security forces are getting closer to us, but the protesters are trying to hold them off by burning tyres," a doctor in Tahrir Square told the AFP news agency. "We can hear live fire now and there are so many wounded." One protester said that the security forces had instructed the protesters to “go home". "We put up more barricades so they won't enter Tahrir. Tomorrow, no one goes to work," he said.

Iraq protests death toll rises to 319 with nearly 15,000 injured - At least 319 people have been killed in Iraq since the start of anti-government protests in October, according to the Iraqi Parliamentary Human Rights Committee. Four protesters were killed in Baghdad on Saturday after Iraqi Security Forces pushed back hundreds of protesters and burnt several tents that were being used for an overnight sit-in, according to Iraqi activists. Teargas and live ammunition was used by Iraqi security forces in the al Khalani commercial area, about 1 kilometer from Tahrir square -- Iraq's ground zero for demonstrations. According to the Independent High Commission for Human Rights of Iraq nearly 15,000 have also been injured. The higher death toll also includes two people who were killed Friday in the southern city of Basra during violent protests, the IHCR said in a statement. Basra is an oil-rich city located some 450 kilometers (280 miles) south of Iraq's capital Baghdad. Another 100 people were wounded in Basra as Iraqi security forces used teargas and live bullets. At least 23 students were also injured in Nasiriyah Sunday, after a tear gas cannon from Iraqi forces mistakenly went off inside a nearby intermediate school for girls, witnesses told CNN. Hundreds of high school students were marching the streets in a fresh round of protests in the city, located south of Baghdad. Witnesses say Iraqi security forces began to use tear gas on the protesters when one of the tear gas cannons went off inside the school for girls. The condition of the students were not immediately clear and authorities have not officially commented on the incident.

America is ignoring Iraq's turbulent protests at its peril, security experts say - Iraq is descending into its most violent days since the battle against ISIS concluded in late 2017 — and the world is completely underestimating its significance, regional experts told CNBC at the Middle East’s premier oil and gas conference this week. “From a security perspective, I would say that the Iraq story is the most under-covered story in the region right now,” Amos Hochstein, former special envoy for international energy affairs under the Obama administration, told CNBC on Wednesday. “Because the forces that are outside, the external forces that have decades of interest (in Iraq) are not going to go away quietly. They will affect the economics of the region potentially, and they can affect the security beyond the region of Europe and eventually the United States.” Some 300 people have been killed and more than 2,000 injured as protests rocking the country of 38 million draw a harsh response from state security forces and other unidentified entities. Authorities have taken extreme measures like shutting down the internet and using live ammunition against protesters in an attempt to crack down on the uprising. Amnesty International has described the government response as “nothing short of a bloodbath.” Protesters report plainclothes snipers shooting and killing civilian demonstrators, with many Iraqis pointing to Iranian-backed paramilitary fighters or “anonymous thugs” as some of the forces sowing further violence and confusion. Iraqis across the country, particularly in Baghdad and cities of the country’s oil-rich south, are angry over grievances that lie at the heart of protests similarly taking place in Lebanon and Algeria: rampant state corruption, high unemployment, and a lack of basic services provision. Iraqi cities regularly suffer power cuts, garbage is left uncollected and there is a broad consensus that the state serves the interests of the elites, not the people — and all this in a country that is a major crude oil producer, sitting on the world’s fifth-largest proven oil reserves and pumping nearly 5 million barrels per day. Its southern Basra province, afflicted with some of the worst poverty and lack of public services in the country, hosts international oil hegemons like Exxon, BP and Total.

Turkey starts repatriating IS jihadis - Turkey began returning captured militants from the extremist "Islamic State" (IS) group to the countries they come from on Monday.  The spokesperson for the Interior Ministry, Ismail Catakli, said on Monday that a US national had been deported and a German and a Danish national would be returned later in the day. The two are being held in deportation centers while legal proceedings are under way. Catakli said seven other German nationals would be returned on November 14. "One American foreign terrorist fighter whose proceedings are completed has been deported, Catakli was quoted as saying by state-run Anadolu news agency.  "Travel plans for seven foreign terrorist fighters of German origin at deportation centers have been completed; they will be deported on November 14," he added. A German Foreign Ministry spokesperson confirmed on Monday that Turkey would be sending up to seven IS fighters along with two children. Ankara is also preparing to deport foreign fighters from France, Ireland and the Netherlands, among other countries, Catakli noted. In total, over 20 jihadists are expected to be deported in the coming days, including 11 French and two Irish nationals.   The move comes days after the Turkish interior minister, Suleyman Soylu, said his country was "not a hotel for IS members from any country." He also warned that Ankara would begin repatriation even if the prisoners had their citizenships revoked. However, it is not clear whether this will be possible.

US Drones Capture Footage Of Pro-Turkish Forces Engaged In Shocking War Crimes -  Entirely to be expected, a new report in The Wall Street Journal has found that Turkish-backed Syrian forces currently fighting US-backed Kurdish groups as part of 'Operation Peace Spring' are guilty of war crimes, including summary executions of Kurdish civilians. "U.S. military officials watched live drone feeds last month that appeared to show Turkish-backed Arab gunmen targeting civilians during their assault on Kurdish fighters in northeastern Syria, attacks the Americans reported to their commanders as possible war crimes, according to current and former U.S. officials familiar with the incidents," reports the WSJ.  What the report fails to mention, however, is the blatantly obvious and relevant recent history that the Islamist militants carrying out such atrocities are the very same militants which were a few short years ago funded, armed and trained by the CIA and Pentagon.  Erdogan's proxy ground invasion force known as the Turkish-backed Free Syrian Army (TFSA), more commonly called the Syrian National Army, has even recently been filmed deploying CIA-supplied TOW missiles against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), as we previously detailed.It's also been well-documented that the Turkey invasion forces of Syrian National Army are stacked with former ISIS, Nusrah, and FSA jihadists... who clearly brought their CIA toys with them. And oh the Pentagon now wants you to know that US officials have suddenly become aware of their war crimes, despite the very same groups having carried out similar crimes against Syrian civilians for years as they fought pro-Assad forces.

 Turkey’s Other Weapon Against the Kurds: Water - Since the early 2000s, a massive hydropower project in southeastern Turkey has been mired in controversy, moving forward in fits and starts. But as of this past July, construction is finally complete. As the dam and its reservoir become fully operational, the line between hydropower and state power will be washed away. This fall, the violence that followed a sudden, destabilizing withdrawal of US troops from nearby northern Syria captured the world’s attention as it cleared the path for Turkey’s military to dominate the Kurdish opposition. Meanwhile, the water slowly rising behind the 442-foot-high, more-than-a-mile-wide wall of the Ilisu Dam across the Tigris River is a less overt sign of that same determination. “This dam is a weapon against the lowlands,” said Ulrich Eichelmann, a German ecologist and conservationist and head of the Austrian NGO RiverWatch, over the phone from Vienna. “It was planned and is now being built in a way they can hold back the whole Tigris for a long time. If you see water as a weapon, dams are the new cannons. Iraq has the oil, Turkey has the water, and sometimes, it’s much better to have the water.” The Tigris and Euphrates rivers, two of the three longest rivers in the Middle East after the Nile, both originate in Turkey. The Euphrates flows across Turkey, south through the heart of Syria, and into Iraq. Now, both of these storied, sacred, ancient rivers are drying up, and the (once) Fertile Crescent is giving way to arid, cracked ground. To some extent, the culprit is climate change. More immediately, the fate and exploitation of these rivers lies with Turkey’s hydropower development and the 41-component project of which the Ilisu Dam is just one part: Dams on the Euphrates have reduced water flow into Syria by an estimated 40 percent in the past 40 years and into Iraq by nearly twice that. With the damming of the Tigris, the last lifeline to this region will also be in Turkey’s grip. Downriver, the effects will be water shortage. The Mesopotamian Marshes in Iraq may turn to desert. This region, now a UNESCO World Heritage site, was drained during the Iran-Iraq War of 1980 and again by Saddam Hussein in a tactical maneuver to expose his enemies. After Hussein’s ouster, the dikes he had built were torn down in celebration, and the parts of the marshland ecosystem began to return to its previous, verdant state. With the Ilisu’s restricted water flow will come not only ecological repercussions but also a tactical advantage for enemies of the region’s inhabitants. Upriver, the problem will be not too little water but an inundation. As with the creation of any major reservoir, bird and fish habitats will be wiped out and the regional climate will be altered. Ecosystems, residential areas, and archaeological sites will be submerged.

US Infantry Fighting Vehicles Appear In Northern Syria - The Pentagon wasn't bluffing, apparently, on its prior statements that mechanized units would be heading into Syria as part of Trump's "secure the oil" plan.  Over the weekend multiple Bradley infantry fighting vehicles (IFV) were filmed leading convoys in around the northern cities of Tal Tamir and Kobani, escorting other armored vehicles along with infantry crew members. Syrian Kurdish and local media are mistakenly describing the armored Bradley M2 infantry fighting vehicles rumbling across the highways as "tanks".   US Abrams or Bradley tanks crossed the city of #Tal_Tamir pass to #Kobani by M4 road pic.twitter.com/iQLsuXHMjf   This as there continues to be reports of 'mission confusion' on the ground, given the scope of just what is to be secured on the ground is still in question — and though at first it was chiefly said to be ISIS the troops would be protecting the oil fields from, the latest Pentagon statements have named pro-Assad forces as well.One Pentagon official was pressed during a briefing last Thursday over how a country's sovereign resources could be legally stripped away on its own soil, to which a US commander responded: "U.S. troops have the... authorization to shoot if a representative of the Syrian government comes to the.. oil fields and says, 'I am here to take property of these oil fields.'"  Syrian Kurdish and local media are describing the armored Bradley infantry fighting vehicles as "tanks" which are patrolling the highways:  US Abrams tanks crossed the city of #Tal_Tamir pass to #Kobani by M4 road pic.twitter.com/hdmp9f8hNr  Navy Rear Admiral William D. Byrne Jr. continued by saying "our commanders always retain the right and the obligation of self-defense when faced with a hostile act or demonstrated hostile intent."

US wants to create illegal quasi-state in eastern Syria: Russia The United States is looking to illegally separate territories on the eastern bank of the Euphrates and create a separate, illegal, quasi-state there, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said, speaking at the Paris Peace Forum on Tuesday. “On the eastern bank of the Euphrates River, they are doing everything possible to create the structure for a quasi-state, and are asking the Gulf States for major investments in order to create a local administration on the basis of the Syrian Democratic Forces, the Kurds – the YPG People’s Protection Units and others, with the clear intention of breaking this piece of territory off from Syria, and controlling the oil fields located there,” Lavrov said. Federal Program Will Pay Off Your Home If You Live In Or Close To Solon InstantHub Ads by Revcontent Find Out More > 95,690 At the same time, Lavrov accused the US of prohibiting its allies from investing in Syria’s reconstruction. “When it comes to Syria’s reconstruction, we, together with the Syrian government, support inviting everyone [to participate], in creating conditions for the modernisation of infrastructure and the return of refugees, so that the country can return to a normal life. The United States categorically denies the need for this, and prohibit its allies – NATO, the European Union, countries of the region, from investing in any projects in the territories controlled by the Syrian government,” the foreign minister said. Last Year, Syrian authorities estimated that between $200 and $400 billion in investment, and up to a decade would be needed to rebuild Syria following the conflict. The US and its European allies have refused to commit to funding reconstruction efforts, although many European countries are facing major social tensions, due to the influx of Syrian refugees into Europe.

Pentagon- We'll Shoot Any Syrian Official Who Tries to Access Syrian Oil -  Pentagon officials asserted Thursday U.S. military authority over Syrian oil fields because U.S. forces are acting under the goal of "protecting Americans from terrorist activity" and would be within their rights to shoot a representative of the Syrian government who attempted to retake control over that country's national resource. The comments came from Pentagon spokesperson Jonathan Hoffman and Navy Rear Admiral William D. Byrne Jr. during a press briefing in which the two men were asked repeatedly about the legal basis the U.S. is claiming to control Syrian oil fields. The briefing came less than two weeks after Defense Secretary Mark Esper said, "That's our mission, to secure the oil fields" in the Deir ez-Zor area of eastern Syria. President Donald Trump's comments before and after that remark —"We're going to be protecting [the oil], and we'll be deciding what we're going to do with it in the future," and "The oil... can help us, because we should be able to take some"— were seized on by critics who claimed Trump was suggesting violating international law by plundering another country's resources and openly saying the U.S. was pursuing war for oil. Hoffman, in his comments Thursday, gave a different message—that "the revenue from this is not going to the U.S. This is going to the SDF," referring to the Kurdish-led and U.S.-allied Syrian Democratic Forces, who are battling ISIS. Byrne claimed that the U.S. has been waging the oil field control mission alongside SDF and that the goal was to prevent ISIS from obtaining the oil revenue. But, as one reporter pointed out, ISIS fighters "have no armor. They have no aircraft." "Do they have the capability to actually seize the oil fields?" the reporter asked. "And isn't this really about Russia and Syria seizing those oil fields?"*Hoffman replied that the goal was "to prevent a resurgence" of ISIS which would be facilitated if the terrorist group had access to the oil revenue. When the Pentagon officials were pressed on whether "U.S. troops have the... authorization to shoot if a representative of the Syrian government comes to the.. oil fields and says, 'I am here to take property of these oil fields,'" Byrne said, "our commanders always retain the right and the obligation of self-defense when faced with a hostile act or demonstrated hostile intent."The officials were reminded by a reporter that "the government of Syria is still, based on international law... [the] recognized legitimate government." Hoffman said, "Everyone in the region knows where American forces are. We're very clear with anyone in the region in working to deconflict where our forces are. If anyone — we work to ensure that... no one approaches or has — shows hostile intent to our forces, and if they do, our commanders maintain the right of self-defense."

Narrative Managers In Overdrive After Death Of White Helmets Founder - Caitlin Johnstone -- James Le Mesurier, the founder of the White Helmets, has died. He was found to have plummeted from a height to the street outside his home, and authorities are reportedly calling it a suicide.Le Mesurier has a history with British military intelligence and was fundamentally involved with an extremely shady narrative management operation geared toward manufacturing support for yet another imperialist military intervention in yet another Middle Eastern nation, so obviously any claims of suicide should be taken with a grain of salt no smaller than a Buick. But it is worth noting that according to Middle East Eye, Le Mesurier’s wife told police that he’d been struggling with psychological issues for which he was taking medications and had previously been hospitalized. Le Mesurier’s home was reportedly only accessible by fingerprint and no video footage of anyone besides Le Mesurier and his wife entering or leaving has been found. Establishment narrative managers, for their part, have been floating the possibility that the White Helmets founder was murdered by the Russian government. The Washington Examiner has published an article titled “Did Russia kill White Helmets founder James Le Mesurier?”, calling to mind Betteridge’s law of headlines which states that “Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no.” The BBC’s Mark Urban tweeted out and then deleted a thread (screenshots here) in which he cites an anonymous source who claims to have known Le Mesurier’s flat well enough to be sure that it’s not possible to “fall” from his balcony, then meaningfully pointing to a “black propaganda campaign by Russia and Assad media” against Le Mesurier. He apparently didn’t consider the possibility of suicide until later, saying he deleted his thread due to “new information”. For more info on Le Mesurier and his White Helmet mates, I highly recommend watching this excellent half-hour video by James Corbett. It’s full of primary-source video footage indisputably confirming the organization’s ties to western governments and to violent extremist factions in Syria, and explaining how an allegedly “neutral” organization on the ground has been used to control the narrative about what’s been happening in Syria.

 Israel Calls up Reserve Soldiers as Gaza Death Toll Mounts— The Israeli government has called up several hundred reserve soldiers, as the Israeli army continues to strike the Gaza Strip following the assassination of a senior Islamic Jihad military leader in the besieged Palestinian territory. At least 10 Palestinians have been killed and 45 others wounded in Israeli strikes on the Gaza Strip that began early on Tuesday morning, the Palestinian Ministry of Health said. The ministry said that most of those killed were civilians. In the evening local time, Palestinian medical sources said three men were brought dead to the Indonesian Hospital in northern Gaza after they were hit by a missile fired by an Israeli warplane, Palestinian news agency Wafa reported. The Israeli army later tweeted that three Islamic Jihad fighters “who fired rockets from Gaza” were killed. It was unclear whether these were the same three men taken to the Indonesian Hospital. Israel’s initial air strike killed Islamic leader Bahaa Abu al-Atta and his wife, Asmaa, on Tuesday morning. Rockets were fired from the Gaza Strip towards Israel following the targeted assassination. The Israeli army said nearly 200 rockets were launched from Gaza throughout the day. Ninety percent of them were intercepted by Israel’s missile defense system, known as the Iron Dome, the army said. The Israeli military has reinforced its forces along the Gaza frontier, Israeli media reported. Israeli news outlet Ynet said that the reservist soldiers included members of the Iron Dome missile defence units, military intelligence and the Home Front Command. Members of the Home Front Command are typically called up “in times of crisis or war”, according to the group’s website. Israel’s army also closed schools and businesses in the Tel Aviv metropolitan area for the first time since the Gulf War in 1990, the Times of Israel reported.

600 Israeli Violations Against Palestinian Journalists in 2019: Report  — Israeli occupation forces committed 600 violations against Palestinian journalists between October 2018 and October 2019, the Palestinian Journalists’ Syndicate (PJS) announced on Friday. According to the report, which covered the occupied West Bank, East Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip, the most dangerous violations were the direct shootings of journalists.  The report stated that 60 journalists were shot and suffered serious wounds; some of them still suffering at the time of the report.  It also disclosed that 43 journalists had sustained light wounds as they were hit by sound grenades directly thrown at them by the Israeli occupation forces.  “More than 170 journalists were beaten, detained or banned from coverage,” the PJS’ Freedom Committee revealed.It also exposed that more than 180 violations were committed by Facebook in coordination with the Israeli occupation authorities.During the period covered by the report, Israel detained 10 journalists, raising the number of journalists inside Israeli jails to 18.The violations, according to the PJS, included raids of homes, offices, fines and bans of movement inside the country and traveling abroad.

Israel says it will investigate Gaza strike that killed eight members of Palestinian family - The Israeli army said it plans to investigate a 13 November air strike on the Gaza Strip that killed eight members of the same Palestinian family, including five children.The air strike on the home of the al-Sawarka family in Deir al-Balah refugee camp was the single deadliest incident in two days of bombardment by the Israeli army, after its assassination of a senior Islamic Jihad commander and his wife.The Israeli attack killed Rasmi al-Sawarka, also known as Rasmi Abu Malhous, his two wives, and five children, the Palestinian health ministry said. In a statement on Friday, Israeli military spokesman Jonathan Conricus told the AFP news agency that the army's intelligence had indicated "no civilians were expected to be harmed" at the time of the strike.The army said it is "investigating the harm caused to civilians by the strike". Before the statement was released, the Israeli army's Arabic media spokesman, Avichay Adraee, justified the air strike on Twitter, claiming that Sawarka was an Islamic Jihad commander.  On Friday, the United Nations special coordinator for the Middle East peace process said "there is no justification to attacking civilians in Gaza".

How Israeli spy tech reaches deep into our lives - Digital age weapons developed by Israel to oppress Palestinians are rapidly being repurposed for much wider applications – against Western populations who have long taken their freedoms for granted. Israel’s status as a “startup nation” was established decades ago. But its reputation for hi-tech innovation always depended on a dark side, one that is becoming ever harder to ignore. A few years ago, Israeli analyst Jeff Halper warned that Israel had achieved a pivotal role globally in merging new digital technologies with the homeland security industry. The danger was that gradually we would all become Palestinians. Israel, he noted, treated the millions of Palestinians under its unaccountable, military rule effectively as guinea pigs in open-air laboratories. They were the test bed for developing not only new conventional weapons systems, but also new tools for mass surveillance and control. As a recent report in Haaretz observed, Israel’s surveillance operation against Palestinians is “among the largest of its kind in the world. It includes monitoring the media, social media and the population as a whole".

Israeli settlement products must be labeled as such, EU′s top court rules -- Foodstuffs originating from Israeli settlements must be marked as such, the European Court of Justice (ECJ) ruled on Tuesday.The European Union's top court ruled that member states must oblige retailers to identify products made in Israeli settlements with special labels.The issue has been politically divisive — Israel considers the labeling of settler products to be discriminatory and takes a highly critical view of it.Read more: German-Israeli relations: What you need to knowFrance's top tribunal sought clarification from the ECJ after the country published guidelines in 2016 that products from Israeli settlements in the West Bank and Golan Heights must carry labels making their precise origin clear. The guidelines were challenged by the Organisation Juive Europeene (European Jewish Organization) and Psagot, a company that runs vineyards in occupied territories.The groups were concerned that such labeling would facilitate boycotts, such as those endorsed bythe Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement, which Israel sees as anti-Semitic.Palestinian Liberation Organization Secretary-General Saeb Erekat called the ruling a "legal and political obligation."

High Anxiety: The Trade War and China’s Oil and Gas Supply Security - Columbia | SIPA Center on Global Energy Policy-  In summer 2018, China’s president Xi Jinping, facing pressure from the US-China trade war, intervened in a long-running debate within China’s oil industry about the extent to which national security concerns or market forces should determine domestic oil and natural gas production. Xi effectively tipped the scales in favor of advocates of prioritizing self-sufficiency over cost as part of a broader push for self-reliance amidst trade tensions. As a result, China’s national oil companies (NOCs) are accelerating investment in domestic exploration and production. While this ramp-up in spending is likely to result in an increase in output, especially of natural gas, it is unlikely to alter China’s substantial and growing reliance on oil and natural gas imports. However, the trade war probably will continue to contribute to shifts in the composition of China’s import portfolio, with both traditional and new suppliers gaining shares as a result of the slowdown in the flows of US liquified natural gas (LNG) and crude oil to China and decreases in deliveries of Iranian and Venezuelan crudes due to US sanctions. Xi instructed China’s NOCs to ramp up domestic exploration and production of oil and natural gas to enhance national energy security in July 2018. Xi’s directive is consistent with his championing of self-reliance in response to the US-China trade war. The trigger for Xi’s embrace of self-reliance was the US Department of Commerce’s imposition in April 2018 of an export ban to China’s telecommunications equipment manufacturer ZTE that threatened the Chinese national champion’s survival. Although the Department of Commerce lifted the ban in July 2018, the incident underscored for Beijing the risks of relying on imports, especially from the United States, for critical inputs into the Chinese economy. These inputs include not only semiconductors and the Android operating system but also oil and natural gas as well as exploration and production equipment and technology. Even though there is a chance of a trade truce as of this writing, such a truce probably would not significantly affect the Chinese leadership’s impulse toward greater self-reliance, in part because Chinese officials appear to have concluded that the US is an unreliable partner. Xi’s directive spurred China’s NOCs to release their first ever seven-year plans for accelerating the development of domestic oil and natural gas resources and to increase their exploration and production budgets in 2019 to the highest levels in five years. The companies’ actions mark a shift away from a relatively laissez-faire period in the mid-2010s, when low oil prices prompted them to reduce domestic output and upstream spending and import more oil. These decisions were not without controversy. They rekindled a debate with China’s oil industry about the extent to which China, the world’s largest importer of oil and natural gas, should double down on trying to find and produce more oil at home or take advantage of lower prices to purchase more oil from abroad. Xi’s call for China’s oil companies to grow domestic output effectively gave the edge to proponents of enhancing supply security through increased domestic production.

Pork Hyperinflation Sends Chinese Consumer Prices Soaring Most In 7 Years - The bizarre disconnect at the heart of China's market pricing engine is getting bigger with every passing month. Whereas in the 2009-2015 period, China's consumer and producer (or wholesale) prices tended to track each other largely tick for tick, sometime in the beginning of 2016, roughly when global leaders decided at the Shanghai Accord to reflate the global economy by unleashing a massive Chinese credit impulse... ... China's PPI soared higher, which in turn allowed China to rapidly export inflation across the globe, prompting central banks to confuse China's latest credit reflation blast with a coordinated global recovery and tighten financial conditions, something which at the end of 2018 they promptly realized was a mistake after global markets tumbled, resulting in the latest global wave of coordinated central bank easing. Well, fast forward to today when overnight China reported that with the tailwind of its latest credit boost long gone, those all important - for Chinese corporate profits and global reflation - producer prices (PPI) fell by 1.6% in October, more than the 1.5% estimate, and above September's 1.2% decline, and the lowest number since mid-2016. Inflation in the petroleum industry slowed the most, followed by coal mining. “Persistent deflation in the industrial sector squeezes profitability - reducing leeway for investment and hiring,” said Bloomberg economist David Qu, confirming that China's economy is poised for a sub-6% GDP print in the coming months. Meanwhile, in a continuation of China "facing the worst of both worlds" which we first discussed in August, China's consumer prices (CPI) inflation picked up further to 3.8% year-on-year in October, rising to a seven year high (the most since January 2012) and breaching the official target/ceiling (3%) for the first time since November 2013. In month-on-month terms, headline CPI inflation accelerated to a stunning +9.2% SAAR in October from +5.1% in September.

Alibaba Singles Day 2019: Record sales on biggest shopping day — Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba set a sales record on Singles Day, the world’s largest 24-hour shopping event. Gross merchandise value, a figure that shows sales across Alibaba’s shopping platforms, surpassed last year’s 213.5 billion yuan record (nearly $30.5 billion) on Monday afternoon local time and kept rising through the rest of the day. At the end of the event, GMV stood at 268.4 billion yuan, just under a 26% rise from the figure posted last year. That’s a slower growth rate than the 27% seen on last year’s Singles Day. In dollar terms, the GMV figure was around $38.3 billion. It was the 11th edition of the annual Singles Day event — also called the Double 11 shopping festival because it falls on Nov. 11. During the 24-hour period, which began at midnight in Singapore and Hong Kong, Alibaba offered huge discounts across its e-commerce sites such as Tmall. Alibaba’s Singles Day sales last year exceeded the spending by consumers during any single U.S. shopping holiday such as Black Friday or Cyber Monday.

China's Credit Creation Unexpectedly Collapses At The Worst Possible Time --Over the weekend, we observed that China's slumping wholesale inflation, or PPI, which is so critical for corporate profits and sparking benign, demand-driven inflation in the economy, and which in October tumbled to a three year low assuring that Chinese dumping and exports of deflation will only further depress global reflation efforts... Just 48 hours later we can confirm that there is zero risk of either a sharp spike in Chinese inflation, or of China flooding the financial system with cheap credit - as it has been known to do during key economic inflection points - because according to the PBOC, China’s credit growth slowed far more than expected in October to the weakest pace since at least 2017 as a continued collapse in shadow banking, weak corporate demand for credit and seasonal effects all signaled that efforts to prop up the economy through bank lending still aren’t working. The central bank reported that Aggregate Financing, China's revised version of the old Total Social Financing, was a paltry 618.9 billion yuan ($88 billion), missing the median conservative estimate of 950 billion yuan, and down a whopping 72% from the 2.27 trillion yuan in September and 737.4 billion yuan in the same month of 2018. Today's print was the lowest in the revised series history which goes back to the start of 2017, and only a slightly lower print in the old series prevents today's total credit injection from being the lowest since 2016!

Ridiculous - $1 Trillion In Orders For $7 Billion Chinese Bond - In recent years, hardened bond market cynics snickered when insolvent European nations such as Italy or Greece saw 4, 5, or more times demand for their bond offerings than was for sale, whispering to themselves that such oversubscriptions for potentially worthless debt assure a very unhappy ending. Yet not even the biggest cynics were prepared for what just happened in China.When Shanghai Pudong Development Bank sold $7 billion in convertible bonds last month, investors placed more than $1 trillion worth of orders, making this a 140 times oversubscribed offering, enough to shock even the most seasoned China investor, the FT reports.That $1 trillion in bids was almost as large as the entire stock-market capitalisation of Apple or Microsoft — the two biggest companies in the world. "It was a ridiculous amount," said Gerry Alfonso, head of research at Shenwan Hongyuan Securities in Shanghai. It is also a testament to how desperate the world has become in chasing yields and return, as well as just how much excess liquidity there is in the market at the momentWhile new issue oversubscriptions have become the norm in recent years, this absurd case had several Chinese market unique characteristics, reflecting a surge in issuance of such equity-linked instruments in China — a rise helped by what the FT called "an unusual embrace of the product by policymakers better known for cracking down on financial innovations to ensure stability."So far this year, Chinese companies have issued a record $40bn in convertible bonds, up more than 80 per cent from the full-year total in 2018, according to Dealogic.It now appears that converts have become the latest Chinese bubble due to their hybrid characteristics: while they carry a (lower) coupon payment they also offer i nvestors the right to switch them for equity if a company’s shares rise to a certain price. For companies, convertibles offer a way to raise money more cheaply than by issuing regular debt and do not immediately dilute shareholders’ equity.

Hong Kong’s financial edge stems from “one country, two systems”: financial chief (Xinhua) -- Financial Secretary of China's Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) government Paul Chan on Sunday reiterated the role of the "one country, two systems" in keeping financial advantages of Hong Kong, which is grappling with prolonged social unrest. Chan said in an article published on his official blog that investors' confidence has not been affected to a certain degree, citing a stable Hong Kong dollar, free capital flows, no major capital flight, a smooth banking system, and abundant liquidity. The Hang Seng Index closed at 27,651 on Friday, up from 26,900 at the end of May, largely keeping similar fluctuations with overseas markets, Chan said. Chan attributed the stable performance mainly to the principle of "one country, two systems." Xie Feng, commissioner of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR), delivers a speech at a forum on the development of the Greater Bay Area in Hong Kong, south China, Oct. 24, 2019. (Xinhua/Wang Shen) Apart from measures by the HKSAR government, "most importantly, Hong Kong was able to maintain its unique advantage and competitiveness under the framework of the 'one country, two systems'," Chan said. The nation has brought about enormous opportunities to the HKSAR and firmly support its development, Chan said. The capitalization of Hong Kong's stock market is 11 times the GDP, and total banking assets equal to nine times the GDP, which depends on the funds, enterprises and investors from the the global and in particular Chinese mainland, Chan said. Chan added that more opportunities will come from the further connectivity between stock and bond markets and fund products between the mainland and Hong Kong.

Mainland Chinese Sneak Into Hong Kong’s Protests—to Support the Cause —On June 16, a 24-year-old female graduate student with the family name Chen donned a black T-shirt, grabbed a surgical mask in case she needed to hide her face, and joined a massive march against further erosion of the city’s freedoms by China. That much was standard procedure for many of the estimated two million people who took to the streets that day. What set her apart was her Chinese passport. More than one million people have moved from mainland China to live, work and study in Hong Kong since 1997, when the U.K. handed over the city’s sovereignty to Beijing. Many of them share the antipathy for the protesters expressed by state-media portrayals across the border. Some, like a group of immigrants from Fujian province in the city’s North Point neighborhood, even fought against the protesters, answering a call from Beijing. But a small cohort of mainlanders have joined the demonstrations, taking extraordinary risks to support a society that offers freedoms unavailable back home. “My understanding is that ‘one country, two systems’ is a creative set of ideals,” Ms. Chen said. “Now those ideals are threatened.” In more than a dozen interviews, these outliers said they value Hong Kong’s autonomy from Chinese control, especially when it comes to the city’s legal system and freedom of expression. They have joined marches, signed open online letters supporting Hong Kong and defended the movement in social-media battles against state-backed critics and misinformation. Those actions put them at risk of detention by Chinese authorities, who are checking travelers’ smartphones at the border crossing to Shenzhen for evidence of participation in the demonstrations. Mainlanders living in Hong Kong have also experienced ostracism from friends back home who see the protesters as a violent fringe, especially after they beat up a pair of mainland citizens in a melee at the airport. The incident set off a wave of anger in China and a bout of soul-searching among the protesters. Ms. Chen has taken precautions beyond not giving her full name, particularly avoiding protests that clash with the police. But until now she has kept the mask in her bag, calculating her face would be lost in the sea of protesters.

Violence brings Hong Kong to 'brink of total breakdown': police - (Reuters) - Police fired tear gas at pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong’s Central financial district and at demonstrators on the other side of the harbour on Tuesday as a senior officer said the unrest had brought the city to “the brink of total breakdown”. The clashes took place a day after police shot a protester at close range and a man was doused with petrol and set on fire in some of the worst violence in the Chinese-ruled city in decades. More than 1,000 protesters, many wearing office clothes and face masks, rallied in Central for a second day during lunch hour, blocking roads below some of the city’s tallest skyscrapers and most expensive real estate. After they had dispersed, police fired tear gas at the remaining protesters on old, narrow Pedder Street. Police made more than a dozen arrests, many pinned up on the pavement against the wall of luxury jeweller Tiffany & Co. Police said masked “rioters” had committed “insane” acts, throwing trash, bicycles and other debris on to metro tracks and overhead power lines, paralysing transport in the former British colony. TV footage showed activists dropping heavy objects from overpasses on to traffic below, just missing a motorcyclist. “Our society has been pushed to the brink of a total breakdown,” Senior Superintendent Kong Wing-cheung told a briefing, referring to the last two days of violence

Man Set On Fire In Hong Kong After Confronting Enemy Of The People Rioters - In one of the most gruesome videos to emerge from Hong Kong's increasingly violent protests, an unidentified man was set on fire during an argument on the street in Hong Kong.  The older man, seen in the video wearing a green shirt, reportedly helped chase demonstrators from a train station as they worked to disrupt the Monday morning commute. As the crowd started to disperse, the man was filmed arguing with young people who appear to be supporters of the protesters.According to the South China Morning Post, the video shows the man, who is bleeding, walking away from the group and shouting "You are not Chinese." A member of the group responds: "We are Hong Kongers" as the man walks away. Then, a shouted insult prompts him to return and confront the younger demonstrators.As the man starts arguing once again with the crowd, a person dressed in black and wearing a face mask runs up from behind him and douses the man in a clear liquid. He then lights the man on fire with a lighter, instantly engulfing him in flames.The incident occurred shortly before 1 pm on a footbridge, SCMP said. The man was recovering in a city hospital, and was in critical condition. Chinese media denounced his attackers as rioters, a term used often on the mainland to criticize and attack protesters. Afterward, Hong Kong chief executive Carrie Lam said during a press conference on Monday that these "riotous acts have surpassed the five demands & are the enemy of the people." Monday marked one of the most violent episodes to take place during the week, disrupting the morning commute as HK's MTR public transit shut down several stations. Elsewhere on Monday, a protester was shot by police with a live round. Watch the video below:

Hong Kong universities become 'battlefields' as citywide violence spreads - (Reuters) - Police in Hong Kong battled pro-democracy protesters at several university campuses in sometimes savage clashes, as parts of the city were paralysed including Hong Kong’s Central financial district that was tear-gassed for a second day running. The flare-ups occurred a day after police shot an unarmed protester at close range and a man was doused with petrol and set on fire in some of the worst violence since the protests began nearly five months ago in the China-ruled city. At the rural Chinese University near Tai Po, some of the fiercest fighting broke out at night as riot police stormed the campus where hundreds of protesters congregated, firing a barrage of tear gas, rubber bullets and water cannon. Hundreds of masked protesters, many of them students, hurled back petrol bombs, rocks and bricks, some launched with catapults. After the clashes, dozens of the injured lay sprawled on the ground at a nearby sports pitch. The chaotic night scenes of explosions, smoke plumes, yelling and sustained gunfire, which left scores of injured students sprawled on the ground, stoked a sense of dread among some who recalled the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown by Chinese troops on pro-democracy protesters in Beijing. “The fear among the students is so strong,” said Wing Long, a 25-year-old theology student. “That’s why we’ve gathered today to stop it from happening.” The police, however, said protesters in the campus had thrown debris and petrol bombs onto a nearby highway linking the Northern New Territories with Kowloon, bringing traffic to a standstill in a haze of tear gas smoke. The city’s 24 pro-democracy lawmakers condemned the police in a joint statement, saying the nonstop firing of tear gas had turned the campus into a “battlefield,” while urging the international community to speak out for Hong Kong’s youngsters to “prevent the recurrence of the tragedy of 1989.”

Protesters blockade universities, stockpile makeshift weapons as chaos grips Hong Kong -  (Reuters) - Anti-government protesters dug in at several university campuses across Hong Kong on Wednesday, setting the stage for further confrontations as police said violence in the Chinese-ruled city had reached a “very dangerous and even deadly level”. Protesters - many of them young students - spent much of Wednesday fortifying barricades and stockpiling food and makeshift weapons, as other roving bands of masked protesters disrupted transport and businesses in many areas. As night fell without more of the large on-campus clashes seen the previous day, protesters manning the barricades and checkpoints around the universities arranged to sleep in shifts to watch for any approaching police. Demonstrators have been protesting since June about what they see as meddling by Beijing in the freedoms guaranteed under the “one country, two systems” formula put in place when the former British colony returned to Chinese rule in 1997. Allegations of police brutality have fuelled protesters’ anger. China denies interfering in Hong Kong’s affairs and has blamed Western countries, including Britain and the United States, for stirring up trouble. In the heart of the city’s Central business district on Wednesday night, police used an armoured vehicle with an officer firing less-than-lethal rounds from the roof to ram a barricade and disperse protesters who had been blocking traffic. Nearby, protesters also blocked the entrance to the Cross-Harbour Tunnel that links Hong Kong island to the Kowloon area, according to the city’s Transport Department. Earlier in the day, about 1,000 protesters blocked roads in the Central district at lunchtime. Wearing now-banned face masks and dressed in office wear, they marched and hurled bricks on to roads lined with some of the world’s most expensive real estate and luxury flagship stores. Scores of riot police tried to disperse the crowds near the stock exchange, wrestling some people to the ground and beating others with batons. At the Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK), where multiple people were injured in clashes between riot police and protesters on Tuesday, police accused protesters of running a “weapons factory” making hundreds of petrol bombs that were thrown at officers.

The Hong Kong Protesters Aren’t Driven by Hope—For months now, I’ve been told that Hong Kong’s protests would end soon. They’ll end when school starts, I heard during the summer. School did start, but the protests wore on, only now I saw high-school students in crisp school uniforms joining the protesters’ ranks. Next, the mask ban of early October was supposed to slow protesters down, but the very first day after that ban, I watched streams of protesters in masks and helmets make their way to their usual haunts on Hong Kong Island. The government shut down many of the subway lines that day, a practice that has become a de facto curfew, because Hong Kong’s über-efficient subway system is the way most people get around. No matter; the protesters ended up walking, sometimes a lot, and I walked with them, asking some of the same questions I had asked for months: Do you think you will continue protesting? What would it take for you to stop? One of the most popular chants in Hong Kong is “Five demands, not one less.” These include the full withdrawal of the anti-extradition bill, which originally sparked the protests in June; an independent commission to investigate police misconduct; retracting the riot charges against protesters; amnesty for arrested protesters; and, crucially, universal suffrage.Nothing animates the Hong Kongers I’ve been talking with as much as that final demand. Yesterday, the police shot one protester in the stomach at point-blank range, and another police officer drove into the protesters with his motorcycle, weaving into the crowd to circle back again. Later in the day, Hong Kong’s chief executive, Carrie Lam, gave a press conference and, in chilling language, called the protesters the “enemy of the people.” She was voted into office by 777 people from the 1,200-person “Election Committee,” many of whose members are businesspeople with close ties to mainland China. It’s fair to describe her as handpicked by Beijing. Polls in October showed her popularity around 22 percent, with just over one in 10 Hong Kongers saying that they would vote for her voluntarily. No wonder the protesters want the right to elect their own leaders.

China’s messaging against the Hong Kong protests has found a new outlet: PornHub - As Twitter, Facebook and YouTube shut down accounts spreading China’s narrative about the Hong Kong protests overseas, resourceful patriots are putting their videos on another extremely popular platform: the world’s biggest porn site.Beijing has been waging a disinformation campaign against Hong Kong’s protests since June, when the city began to see mass protests sparked by a now-withdrawn extradition bill. Chinese state-owned media outlets have depicted the protesters as violent separatists advocating independence, although that is not a key demand among protest participants, who have been calling for greater democracy and an inquiry into police brutality. As the disinformation efforts extended to overseas platforms—often quite clumsily—first Twitter announced it was suspending tens of thousands of accounts, followed by Facebook and YouTube, which shut down 210 channels that posted videos about Hong Kong in a way that suggested a “coordinated influence operation.”Shu Chang, a Chinese online commentator with over 3 million followers on Chinese social media platform Weibo, said in a post(link in Chinese) on Tuesday (Nov. 12)  that she and other internet users had uploaded a number of propaganda videos on Pornhub after being unable to put them on YouTube.“YouTube would not allow us to upload those videos so we have no other way but to post the videos to Pornhub,” said Shu. While Shu did not identify the videos she and other users had uploaded, searches by Quartz on Wednesday (Nov. 13) for phrases like “Hong Kong rioters” found at least a dozen recently uploaded videos. Since Pornhub and other porn platforms are blocked in China amid a crackdown on “spiritual pollution,” users would need to use a virtual private network to leap the great firewall and access it.

 India and Japan to cement relations with new security deal -- India and Japan are set to become "quasi-allies" as they bolster security ties in the face of China's rising military capabilities. The two countries are planning their first foreign and defense ministerial meeting, dubbed 2+2, in India for late November, hoping to pave the way for an Indian summit next month between Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi. On the agenda will be sorting out the terms of an acquisition and cross-servicing agreement, or ACSA, to be used by their armed forces. If agreed, India will become the sixth nation with which Japan has inked an ACSA, following the U.S., U.K, France, Canada and Australia. Japan has already signed agreements concerning the protection of classified military information and transfer of defense equipment and technology with India. The new move will extend existing Japanese policy -- in coordination with the U.S. -- of checking China's military expansion, specifically calling for a "free and open Indo-Pacific," as well as maintaining maritime order based on the rule of law. This regional vision did not arise by chance. Rather, it emerged to counter China's ambitious Belt and Road Initiative, which is drawing countries into Beijing's sphere of influence with a promise of economic support. Among those countries is Pakistan, which has a long-standing border dispute with India. Hence, it is in India's interest to beef up bonds with Japan on the military front. Improving relations has also carried over into the economic front, where Japan has been laboring to seal the 16-country Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. Japan hopes that India's inclusion in the bloc will help dilute the economic clout of China, another member. But with India declining to sign the agreement earlier this month, Japanese officials will have to refocus policy, at least until India decides to join. Leaders from Japan and India have been meeting each on a fairly regular basis, so a framework for continued cooperation is in place. The two countries upgraded relations when Modi and Abe met in 2014, rebranding their bilateral ties as a "Special Strategic and Global Partnership." Since then, Japan has been pitching in, building urban infrastructure projects and a high-speed rail network.

Ayodhya verdict: Indian top court gives holy site to Hindus - The disputed holy site of Ayodhya in northern India should be given to Hindus who want a temple built there, the country's Supreme Court has ruled. The case, which has been bitterly contested for decades by Hindus and Muslims, centres on the ownership of the land in Uttar Pradesh state. Muslims would get another plot of land to construct a mosque, the court said. Many Hindus believe the site is the birthplace of one of their most revered deities, Lord Ram. Muslims say they have worshipped there for generations. At the centre of the row is the 16th Century Babri mosque which was demolished by Hindu mobs in 1992, sparking riots that killed nearly 2,000 people. In the unanimous verdict, the court said that a report by the Archaeological Survey of India (ASI) provided evidence that the remains of a building "that was not Islamic" was beneath the structure of the demolished Babri mosque. The court said that, given all the evidence presented, it had determined that the disputed land should be given to Hindus for a temple to Lord Ram, while Muslims would be given land elsewhere to construct a mosque. It then directed the federal government to set up a trust to manage and oversee the construction of the temple.

 India’s Supreme Court validates Hindu supremacist violence -In a judgment pronounced Saturday, India’s highest court has legitimized the violent, decades-long agitation that the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its Hindu supremacist allies have mounted to raze a famous mosque in Ayodhya, Uttar Pradesh, and erect in its stead a temple to the mythical Hindu god Lord Ram. At the urging of the then most senior BJP leaders and in defiance of express orders from the Supreme Court, Hindu communal activists stormed the Babri Masjid on December 6, 1992, and demolished the centuries-old structure using axes and sledgehammers. The razing of the Babri Masjid precipitated India’s most serious communal bloodletting since the subcontinent was partitioned in 1947 into an explicitly Muslim Pakistan and a mainly Hindu India. More than 2,000 people, most of them poor Muslims, were killed in communal riots and atrocities. With its ruling Saturday, India’s Supreme Court has validated the Babri Masjid’s illegal destruction and sanctioned the construction of a temple dedicated to the worship of Lord Ram on its former site. Indeed, India’s highest court has “ordered” the BJP government to oversee the construction of the Ram Mandir (temple). Not surprisingly Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, his BJP, and the leaders of the RSS, the shadowy Hindu nationalist organization that provides most of the BJP’s leading cadre, have rejoiced at the court’s ruling. “This verdict will further increase people’s faith in judicial processes,” tweeted Modi. Reaching still more revolting heights of hypocrisy, India’s prime minister said of a judgment that vindicates and will further embolden the Hindu supremacist right, “It clearly illustrates everybody is equal before the law.” From the outset, the campaign mounted by the BJP, the RSS and the RSS-offshoot the Vishwa Hindu Parishad for the building of a Ram Mandir has combined religious obscurantism—as exemplified by the claim that the site of the Babri Masjid is the birthplace of the mythical God Ram—with calculated communal political provocation. In 1990, to popularize their incendiary demand that the Babri Masjid be replaced by a Hindu temple so as to assert India’s “Hindu character,” that is, Hindu supremacy, BJP President L.K. Advani mounted a nationwide campaign of rallies. Advani’s Ram Rath Yatra campaign incited communal violence across much of north India and culminated in an initial Oct. 1990 attempt to storm and raze the Babri Masjid.

India's Factory Output And Electricity Demand Plunge To Decade Lows Amid Economic Downturn - The economic slowdown in India is gaining momentum, new government data Monday shows India's factory output fell to the lowest level in eight years, resulting in power demand across heavily industrialized states plunging to 12-year lows.  Asia's third-largest economy saw industrial production fall to 4.3% in September YoY, the lowest print since Oct. 2011.  Industrial production recorded the second straight month of declines in factory output as the automobile crisis in the country deepens. India's economic growth slipped to a six-year low of 5% for the April-June period as the automobile industry faces a severe downturn. Consumer demand in recent quarters has also weakened, along with a slowdown in government spending.  The industrial slowdown has resulted in a 13.2% drop in India's power demand for the October period on a YoY basis, a 12 year low according to the data from the Central Electricity Authority (CEA).

Mexican government says it is concerned about situation in Bolivia  (Reuters) - Mexico’s foreign ministry said on Saturday that it was concerned about the political situation in Bolivia, which has been locked in a weeks-long standoff over a disputed election. “For Mexico, democracy is the only way and replacing this process with force and violence means a setback,” the foreign ministry said in a statement. “The Government of Mexico urges dialogue, as President Evo Morales has put it.”

No Evidence That Bolivian Election Results Were Affected by Irregularities or Fraud, Statistical Analysis Shows CEPR ― Statistical analysis of election returns and tally sheets from Bolivia’s October 20 elections shows no evidence that irregularities or fraud affected the official result that gave President Evo Morales a first-round victory, researchers and analysts at the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) say. Contrary to a postelection narrative that was supported, without evidence, by the OAS Electoral Observation Mission, statistical analysis shows that it was predictable that Morales would obtain a first-round win, based on the results of the first 83.85 percent of votes in a rapid count that showed Morales leading runner-up Carlos Mesa by less than 10 points. The new paper, “What Happened in Bolivia’s 2019 Vote Count? The Role of the OAS Electoral Observation Mission,” presents a step-by-step breakdown of what happened with Bolivia’s vote counts (both the unofficial quick count, and the slower official count), seeking to dispel confusion over the process. The report includes the results of 500 simulations that show that Morales’s first-round victory was not just possible, but probable, based on the results of the initial 83.85 percent of votes in the quick count.“There is simply no statistical or evidentiary basis to dispute the vote count results showing that Evo Morales won in the first round,” CEPR Senior Policy Analyst, and coauthor of the paper, Guillaume Long said. “In the end, the official count, which is legally binding and completely transparent, with the tally sheets available online, closely matched the rapid count results.”Mark Weisbrot, Co-Director of CEPR, noted that it was very unusual, and highly questionable, for the OAS to issue a press statement questioning election results without providing any evidence for doing so. He noted that the OAS preliminary report on the election also provided no evidence that anything was wrong with the vote count.“The OAS press statement of October 21 and its preliminary report on the Bolivian elections raise disturbing questions about the organization’s commitment to  impartial, professional, electoral observation,” said Weisbrot. “The OAS should investigate to find out how such statements, which may have contributed to political conflict in Bolivia, were made without any evidence whatsoever.”

Bolivia: audios leaked from opposition leaders calling for a coup against Evo Morales -- A series of 16 audios in which opposition leaders call for a coup against the newly re-elected president Evo Morales were leaked through various social platforms.Local media point out that the destabilizing plan would have been coordinated by the United States Embassy in Bolivia prior to the elections and cites US senators Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, who are said to have direct contact with the Bolivian opposition in the strategy to overthrow Morales.The plan focuses on the fact that if Evo Morales won the elections on October 20, a civil-military transition government would be established. The new government would allege fraud in the electoral process and would not recognize Morales' electoral victory.In the audios filtered through social platforms opposition leaders call to burn structures of the government party and to put together a general strike throughout the country and to attack the Cuban Embassy in that country.The publication of the audios arises in the midst of the political crisis following the electoral triumph of Evo Morales, whom the opposition accuses of committing fraud. Weeks ago in a speech President Evo Morales had referred to alleged coup plans and that his government had the recordings. Neither the opposition nor the United States Embassy has referred to the leakage of the audios.

Bolivia’s Evo Morales forced out by coup - Bolivian president Evo Morales of the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party was forced to resign Sunday evening by the Bolivian military in a coup backed by the United States. Last night, Morales tweeted that he is “leaving for Mexico” after that country agreed to grant him asylum. After three weeks of protests following the disputed October 20 presidential elections, the imperialist powers and their Bolivian client elite have overthrown the government of Morales. In the context of a deepening crisis of global capitalism and a resurgence of the class struggle internationally, including recent mass strikes among miners and doctors in Bolivia, the ruling class lost confidence that Morales and the MAS apparatus can continue to suppress social opposition. Despite empty calls to “preserve democracy,” the US government is backing a takeover of the most racist and authoritarian Bolivian politicians and state officials to install a regime that will ruthlessly crackdown on opposition as global finance demands a full-blown exploitation of Bolivia’s vast and strategic oil and mining resources, including 70 percent of global lithium reserves. Yesterday, US president Donald Trump released a statement celebrating the coup and applauding “the Bolivian military for “abiding by its oath to protect not just a single person, but Bolivia’s Constitution.” He then threatened the Venezuelan and Nicaraguan governments with the same fate, ending: “We are now one step closer to a completely democratic, prosperous and free Western Hemisphere.” Pitched fighting took place last night as thousands of peasants and workers from El Alto and other regions surrounding La Paz mobilized in the capital to protest the coup, chanting “Now it’s time for civil war.” Several police buildings were occupied and then burned in El Alto. The armed forces have responded by activating “Plan Sebastián Pagador” to restore “peace and stability,” which the police are enforcing by shooting protesters with volleys of live bullets and grenades. The Mexican government agreed yesterday to Morales’s request for asylum after his house was burned down and an arrest warrant issued by the Bolivian police. The Mexican Foreign Ministry asked the same Bolivian authorities that overthrew Morales to provide a “safe passageway.” However, the governments of Argentina and Brazil said they would not allow Morales to use their airspace.

Bolivia coup led by Christian fascist paramilitary leader and millionaire – with foreign support  --When Luis Fernando Camacho stormed into Bolivia’s abandoned presidential palace in the hours after President Evo Morales’s sudden November 10 resignation, he revealed to the world a side of the country that stood at stark odds with the plurinational spirit its deposed socialist and Indigenous leader had put forward.With a Bible in one hand and a national flag in the other, Camacho bowed his head in prayer above the presidential seal, fulfilling his vow to purge his country’s Native heritage from government and “return God to the burned palace.”“Pachamama will never return to the palace,” he said, referring to the Andean Mother Earth spirit. “Bolivia belongs to Christ.” Bolivia’s extreme right-wing opposition had overthrown leftist President Evo Morales that day, following demands by the country’s military leadership that he step down.  Virtually unknown outside his country, where he had never won a democratic election, Camacho stepped into the void. He is a powerful multi-millionaire named in the Panama Papers, and an ultra-conservative Christian fundamentalist groomed by a fascist paramilitary notorious for its racist violence, with a base in Bolivia’s wealthy separatist region of Santa Cruz.Camacho hails from a family of corporate elites who have long profited from Bolivia’s plentiful natural gas reserves. And his family lost part of its wealth when Morales nationalized the country’s resources, in order to fund his vast social programs — which cut poverty by 42 percent and extreme poverty by 60 percent.In the lead-up to the coup, Camacho met with leaders from right-wing governments in the region to discuss their plans to destabilize Morales. Two months before the putsch, he tweetedgratitude: “Thank you Colombia! Thank you Venezuela!” he exclaimed, tipping his hat to Juan Guaido’s coup operation. He also recognized the far-right government of Jair Bolsonaro, declaring, “Thank you Brazil!”Camacho had spent years leading an overtly fascist separatist organization called the Unión Juvenil Cruceñista. The Grayzone edited the following clips from a promotional historical documentary that the group posted on its own social media accounts:

Bolivia crisis: Evo Morales says he fled to Mexico as life was at risk - Former Bolivian President Evo Morales has arrived in Mexico City saying he asked for asylum because his life was in danger. Mr Morales resigned on Sunday after weeks of protests over a disputed presidential election result. The Mexican jet carrying him landed at an airport in Mexico City, where he gave a brief news conference. Mr Morales said he was forced to stand down but did so willingly "so there would be no more bloodshed". He said a price of $50,000 (£38,000) had been put on his head by "coup plotters". The left-wing leader said he and the Bolivian government were "very grateful" to Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, whom he credited with saving his life. "While I have life I'll stay in politics, the fight continues. All the people of the world have the right to free themselves from discrimination and humiliation," he added. Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard said Mr Morales had arrived "safely" in the country, tweeting a picture of the jet that carried him. Mr Morales, a former coca farmer, was first elected in 2006, the country's first leader from the indigenous community. He has won plaudits for fighting poverty and improving Bolivia's economy but drew controversy by defying constitutional limits to run for a fourth term in October's election. The poll is alleged to have been rife with irregularities. Smiling and raising his fist in the air, Mr Morales appeared relaxed as he exited the plane at Mexico City's international airport ‪at around 11:15 local time (‪17:10 GMT‬). But Mr Morales's upbeat demeanour belied the difficulties of his journey to Mexico from the Bolivian city of Cochabamba, where he had sought refuge. The Mexican Air Force jet sent to pick up Mr Morales first stopped off in Peru, where it refuelled and waited for permission to enter Bolivian airspace. Once on the ground in Bolivia, however, Peru told the plane that "for political reasons" it would not be allowed fly back to the country to refuel. After negotiations with several countries in the region, the plane was granted permission to refuel in Paraguay before it flew to Mexico via Brazil and Peru.

Jeanine Anez declares herself Bolivia interim president | Bolivia News | Al Jazeera - Jeanine Anez, the head of Bolivia's Senate, declared herself interim president of Bolivia in Congress on Tuesday despite a lack of a quorum to appoint her in a legislative session that was boycotted by legislators from former President Evo Morales' left-wing party. "Before the definitive absence of the president and vice president ... as the president of the Chamber of Senators, I immediately assume the presidency as foreseen in the constitutional order," Anez, a right-wing opponent of Morales, said to applause from opposition lawmakers. It was unclear if the move would quell unrest in the highland capital, La Paz, and other cities unleashed by Morales' disputed bid for a fourth term. Video footage on Tuesday showed police battling Morales supporters in the city of Cochabamba and masked protesters calling for civil war. Morales, who sought to transform Bolivia as its first indigenous president, landed in Mexico on Tuesday pledging to keep up his political "fight" after resigning in the wake of mass protests over the disputed October 20 election. Morales called Anez's move to replace him part of "the most cunning and disastrous coup in history" while a senator from his party called for protests starting on Tuesday. In Morales' stronghold of Al Alto, thousands gathered to protest at his departure, saying the former president was the only man who had brought "dignity" to the indigenous community and that they feared renewed discrimination, according to Al Jazeera's Teresa Bo who was in the city. "They say they are going to head towards La Paz," Bo said. "They are saying that this will not go unpunished. They say they not only want Morales back, but they want the 'head' of Mesa, the opposition presidential candidate, and Camacho who is leader of the Civic Union of Santa Cruz and these people say is a racist." Military fighter jets flew repeatedly over La Paz in a show of force that infuriated Morales loyalists who were already in the city, but were stopped from getting to the main square. "Evo was like a father to me. We had a voice, we had rights," said 35-year-old Maria Apasa. Like Morales, she is a member of the Aymara indigenous group.

 Lithium Question Looms Large in Bolivia After Morales Ousted in Coup— Bolivia’s President Evo Morales was overthrown in a military coup on November 10. He is now in Mexico. Before he left office, Morales had been involved in a long project to bring economic and social democracy to his long-exploited country. It is important to recall that Bolivia has suffered a series of coups, often conducted by the military and the oligarchy on behalf of transnational mining companies. Initially, these were tin firms, but tin is no longer the main target in Bolivia. The main target is its massive deposits of lithium, crucial for the electric car. Over the past 13 years, Morales has tried to build a different relationship between his country and its resources. He has not wanted the resources to benefit the transnational mining firms, but rather to benefit his own population. Part of that promise was met as Bolivia’s poverty rate has declined, and as Bolivia’s population was able to improve its social indicators. Nationalization of resources combined with the use of its income to fund social development has played a role. The attitude of the Morales government toward the transnational firms produced a harsh response from them, many of them taking Bolivia to court. Over the course of the past few years, Bolivia has struggled to raise investment to develop the lithium reserves in a way that brings the wealth back into the country for its people. Morales’ Vice President Álvaro García Linera had said that lithium is the “fuel that will feed the world.” Bolivia was unable to make deals with Western transnational firms; it decided to partner with Chinese firms. This made the Morales government vulnerable. It had walked into the new Cold War between the West and China. The coup against Morales cannot be understood without a glance at this clash. When Evo Morales and the Movement for Socialism took power in 2006, the government seized several of the mining operations of the most powerful firms, such as Glencore, Jindal Steel & Power, Anglo-Argentine Pan American Energy, and South American Silver (now TriMetals Mining). It sent a message that business as usual was not going to continue. Nonetheless, these large firms continued their operations—based on older contracts—in some areas of the country. For example, the Canadian transnational firm South American Silver had created a company in 2003—before Morales came to power—to mine the Malku Khota for silver and indium (a rare earth metal used in flat-screen televisions). South American Silver then began to extend its reach into its concessions. The land that it claimed was inhabited by indigenous Bolivians, who argued that the company was destroying its sacred spaces as well as promoting an atmosphere of violence.

“We Don’t Want Any Dictators”: Bolivians Flood Streets to Protest Military Coup— Unrest continued in Bolivia Thursday as protests against the right-wing coup that unseated democratically-elected President Evo Morales on Sunday and the anti-Indigenous ideology behind it entered their fourth day. Demonstrators filled the streets of the Bolivian capitol, La Paz, waving the indigenous wiphala flag and registering their disapproval of the new interim government of Jeanine Añez. “We don’t want any dictators,” protester Paulina Luchampe told Time Magazine on Wednesday. “This lady has stepped on us—that’s why we’re so mad.” New president Añez has come under criticism for a history of comments promoting an extreme right-wing Christian theocratic ideology, including referring to the country’s Indigenous population as “satanic.” Members of the country’s police and military forces, whose support for the coup over the weekend precipitated Morales’ resignation Sunday, have been photographed cutting the wiphala flag off of their uniforms. “Anti-Indigenous racism is at the heart of what’s happening in Bolivia,” tweeted Cherokee activist and writer Rebecca Nagle. Right-wing militias burning the flag and attacking the country’s Indigenous protest movement mean that the conflict is more than just about political differences, said Bolivian feminist Adriana Guzman—it’s about the country’s right-wing being opposed to everything the Morales government stood for. “The coup d’état is against all of that,” said Guzman. “That’s why they degrade. That’s why they punish. That’s why they burn the Indigenous wiphala flag.” Protests continued on Thursday.

Greece, China Sign 16 Belt And Road Deals To Open New Superhighway - Chinese President Xi Jinping is on an official visit in Athens Monday has signed 16 agreements in sectors including agriculture, energy, ports, and tourism aimed at increasing Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects in the European Union, reported Bloomberg. President Xi met with political leaders in Athens Monday, after the Prime Minister of Greece Kyriakos Mitsotakis visited China last week. Beijing is planning on significantly boosting Chinese investment in Greece, which could lay the groundwork for a new superhighway of trade between Europe and China. WATCH: Chinese President Xi Jinping arrives in Greece for a three-day state visit to consolidate traditional friendship and strengthen cooperation between the two countries #China #Greece @busrep pic.twitter.com/pk6GsxIfbG — BRI TV+ (@BeltRoadTV) November 11, 2019 President Xi said China and Greece "are natural partners" for the BRI. He added, "we want to strengthen the transit role of Piraeus Port to expand bilateral trade and to invest in energy, transportation, and the banking sector." "I think our cooperation can combine our advantages and benefit everyone. At the port of Piraeus, we can see that the result of our cooperation has made it the largest port in the Mediterranean," Xi said.

"These Gates Will Open" - Erdogan Declares As Turkey Begins Deporting ISIS Captives To Europe --Have Turkey's floodgates begun to open? For months now the question of what to do with foreign jihadists which flooded Syria over the course of the eight-year long war has been intensely debated. President Erdogan has shocked European officials by repeatedly threatening to unleash them along with some three million Syrian refugees on Europe if his 'Operation Peace Spring' does not gain support, and if the EU rejects his 'safe zone' offer. But as of Monday Turkish officials announced plans to begin sending hundreds of the some 1200 plus ISIS detainees and other jihadists it has in its custody back to Europe, saying Turkey "is not a hotel for jihadists" — to quote an Interior Ministry statement from last week. "Turkey deported three foreign jihadists on Monday, with more than 20 Europeans including French and Germans in the process of being expelled to their countries of origin," the AFP reported. This after Turkish officials have repeatedly lashed out at European capitals for refusing to repatriate their citizens caught fighting for ISIS. The AFP also reported a “foreign terrorist fighter” from the United States has also been expelled along with others from Germany and Denmark. More are expected to follow in the coming days, amid reports that most are from France. The reaction of a number of European countries, including Britain, has been to strip suspected terrorists of their citizenship, leaving them as stateless and thus unable to be repatriated to their country of origin. President Trump previously expressed a desire for the Europeans to deal with their fighters, many of which are still in US-SDF custody in northeast Syria. "The US does not want to watch as these ISIS fighters permeate Europe, which is where they are expected to go..." the president said earlier this year.

 Two of the world's biggest economies are at risk of recession - Investors have recently put fears about the pace of global growth aside, opting for optimism on a "phase one" US-China trade deal. But muted economic data expected out of Europe this week could change the mood. Germany may post data Thursday indicating that it's in recession. Economists surveyed by Reuters believe the world's fourth largest economy shrank 0.1% between July and September — marking two straight quarters of negative growth. It's possible that Germany — which has been hit by the trade war, as well as falling global demand for autos — just dodged a bullet. Exports unexpectedly rebounded in September, rising 1.5% compared to the previous month. August data was also revised upward. Recession or not, the reality is that Germany's economy, the largest in Europe, looks very weak. A reminder of that could give investors a jolt.  Also on the calendar is Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony before Congress on the US economy, which takes place Wednesday and Thursday. Expect Powell to get grilled on where the Fed goes after three straight "insurance" cuts to interest rates. But he's also likely to face questions on weak manufacturing and business investment data — and what it tells us about the strength of the world's biggest economy. Up first: The United Kingdom will report GDP data on Monday. The country's economy shrank for the first time since 2012 in the second quarter as global growth and Brexit fears loomed large — but economists polled by Reuters think the country will narrowly avoid a recession by notching 0.4% growth between July and September.

Spanish elections: Socialists win amid far right surge - Socialists (PSOE) won the most seats in Sunday's election, but fell short of a majority - and right-wing parties made major gains. The conservative Popular Party (PP) came in second, and far-right Vox more than doubled its seats to become the country's third most-powerful party. This is Spain's fourth general election in as many years. A previous vote in April ended with no clear majority, and the Socialists failed to form a coalition government. This time, the Socialist party won 120 out of a total of 350 seats - three fewer seats than in April's vote. The PP has 88 seats, up from 66 in the previous poll, while Vox has 52 - up from just 24 in April. What now? Addressing Socialist supporters after the results came in, acting Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said it was his priority to "form a stable government and do politics for the benefit of the majority of Spaniards". Who's who in race to run Spain "I would like to make a call to all the political parties because they need to act with generosity and responsibility in order to unblock the political situation in Spain," he added. After failing to form a government, Mr Sánchez had hoped that calling another election would strengthen his party's hand - but Pablo Iglesias, leader of left-wing Podemos, warned that it had only reinforced the far right. "Once again we extend a hand to the Socialist party and Pedro Sánchez," he said, adding that he was ready to start talks with the party as soon as Monday. Podemos is the Socialist party's natural political ally. However, a coalition between the two would still fall short of the 176 seats needed for a majority. Meanwhile the centre-right party Ciudadanos - or Citizens - haemorrhaged support, winning only 10 seats this month compared to 57 in April. Ciudadanos was also overtaken by ERC-Sobiranistes, an electoral coalition of pro-Catalan separatist parties.

 Fascistic Vox party surges in Spanish election as hung parliament emerges - The pro-fascist Vox party surged into third place in national elections in Spain Sunday, doubling its presence from 24 to 52 seats in the Congress as a hung parliament emerged for the fourth straight election in Spain since 2015. Abstention rose to over 30 percent, after a reactionary election campaign oriented around calls for violent police repression of mass protests in Catalonia against the jailing of Catalan nationalists for organizing peaceful protests and a peaceful referendum on Catalan independence in 2017. With tacit support from the pseudo-left Podemos party, the caretaker Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) government pledged a violent crackdown on the protests. This strengthened Vox and the right-wing Popular Party (PP). The PSOE took 28 percent of the vote and 120 seats, the PP 21 percent (88 seats), Vox 15 percent (52 seats), Podemos 13 percent (35 seats), the right-wing Citizens party 7 percent (10 seats). The PSOE and Podemos both lost over a half-million votes, while Vox won a million more votes and the PP 600,000 more votes than in the last elections. The Citizens party fell 9 percent, losing 2.6 million votes. The collapse of the vote for Citizens, a right-wing party founded to oppose Catalan separatism, came as Spanish media gave wall-to-wall coverage to Vox leader Santiago Abascal. An open supporter of fascist dictator Francisco Franco’s army and its record of mass murder of left wing workers during the 1936-1939 Spanish Civil War, Abascal outflanked Citizens on the right, calling for military repression and executions in Catalonia. Regional nationalist parties maintained their presence in the Congress, as Catalan voters delivered a vote for Catalan nationalist parties despite the deployment of a large force of 4,500 police and Civil Guards to oversee the election in Catalonia. The Republican Left of Catalonia won 13 seats, Together for Catalonia 8, the Basque National Party 7, and the Basque-nationalist EH Bildu 5. The Catalan petty-bourgeois Candidatures of Popular Unity (CUP) won 2 seats while More Country, a pro-PSOE split-off from Podemos led by Inigo Errejon, won 3. The result is a fourth hung parliament in as many elections since 2015. Neither the PSOE nor the PP, the bourgeoisie’s two traditional parties of government since the 1978 Transition from the Francoite dictatorship to parliamentary rule, have enough seats to obtain an absolute majority of 176 in the 350-seat Congress. Even with their traditional allies, such as Podemos for the PSOE or Citizens or Vox for the PP, they would not reach the 176-seat limit.

 Unrest at French universities after student sets himself alight over debts Demonstrations have taken place across French cities in solidarity with a 22-year-old who set himself alight to highlight student poverty. Unrest erupted at universities after the underg- raduate, named only as Anas K, set himself on fire in the city of Lyon on Friday to highlight his financial difficulties and protest at the education policies of Emmanuel Macron. The political science student suffered 90% burns and was said to be in a critical condition in hospital. Student protesters also forced the former French president François Hollande to cancel a university conference in Lille. On Tuesday afternoon, Hollande, who led the French socialist government from 2012-17, had prepared to give his lecture at Lille University entitled Responding to the democratic crisis. A group of about 50 students forced their way into the Lille amphitheatre where they tore up copies of the former leader’s book of the same title. Hollande, who was in another room, left without seeing the demonstration. The protesters brandished a banner, reading “solidarity and long live socialism”, and chanted “anti-capitalism” and “Hollande assassin”. Several videos posted on Facebook showed students, some with scarves covering their faces, throwing ripped books across the room and jostling with security guards..

Brexit: The long hard road to a future relationship With the UK election in full swing, the EU is already preparing itself for the next stage of the Brexit process: the negotiations over the future relationship. Assuming Britain departs on 31 January, the scale of what will follow makes Tory Party notions about "getting Brexit done" fanciful to say the least. Ahead will lie months, possibly years of gruelling negotiations on how Britain and Europe interact with each other in the future. Everything immediately hinges on the outcome of the election. On paper, a comfortable Boris Johnson majority could see a swift ratification of the Withdrawal Agreement, with Johnson pushing for a formal departure even as early as 1 January. That is unlikely. The European Parliament also has to ratify the Withdrawal Agreement and the last available Strasbourg plenary session before the year is mid-December, not enough time for the Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB) to be have been pushed through the House of Commons beforehand. But EU institutions are already busy laying the groundwork. "There's a huge amount of work being done behind the scenes by the [Brexit] Task Force," says one EU source. "We want to be ready in case the election results in a strong majority for Boris and he wants to leave on January 1. We're talking to [Commission] Directorate-Generals [DGs] to make sure we're ready for that scenario." Like every treaty between the EU and a third country, the European Commission does the negotiating on behalf of member states. Michel Barnier has already been re-appointed to oversee this process. His Task Force 50 team, assembled for the divorce negotiations, has been merged with the Brexit Preparedness Group, which had been set up to prepare member states for a no-deal outcome. Individual Commissioners will play a more front line role in the talks, while experts from the various arms of the Brussels will be drafted in as needed. That means that while Barnier will be the overarching chief negotiator, EU Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan, for example, will play a key role when the trade talks are under way.

Here’s What British Companies Have Been Saying About Brexit - Homebuilders, car dealers, a cigarette company and a photo-booth operator are among firms to have brought up Britain’s split from the European Union in recent weeks. The impact isn’t limited to the U.K.: even Tinder-owner Match Inc. suggested Brexit may have hurt its sales. Year-to-date, 1,910 statements published by the Regulatory News Service, London Stock Exchange Group Plc’s main distribution feed, have mentioned the B-word. Chatter peaked around the original exit date in March and bubbled up again as the risk of a chaotic no-deal increased in September. While November is on pace to rank among the quieter months of 2019, with 37 mentions in just over a week, things are likely to pick up again with the Dec. 12 election and another divorce deadline at the end of January. Here’s a summary of what companies have had to say of late:

Jeremy Corbyn ‘will put national security at risk’: Spies fear UK could be frozen out of Five Eyes alliance amid claims Labour leader’s close aides will be BANNED from seeing top secret material over hard-Left links - Fears have been raised that Britain could be frozen out of the 'Five Eyes' spy alliance if Jeremy Corbyn becomes PM. Concerns are mounting in Whitehall that the flow of intelligence sharing between the UK, US, Australia, Canada and New Zealand could dry up due to a lack of trust in the Labour leader. Mr Corbyn has been accused of undermining the Trident nuclear deterrent - which Labour in theory is meant to back - by admitting he would never use it. There are also claims that Mr Corbyn's closest aides could be blocked from seeing top secret material in Downing Street due to links with Russia and the hard Left.The warnings, highlighted in the The Times, emerged as Boris Johnson launches an all-out attack on Mr Corbyn, comparing him to Stalin and swiping that he hates wealth creators. Mr Corbyn dismissed the barbs as 'the nonsense the super-rich will come out with to avoid paying a bit more tax'.

Labour MPs press Corbyn to cooperate with Remain parties after Farage stands down candidates Labour Remainers are pressing Jeremy Corbyn to cooperate with other parties to stop a majority Conservative government, after Nigel Farage backed down from his threat to stand Brexit Party candidates in every constituency in Britain in the 12 December election. Despite repeatedly denouncing Boris Johnson’s EU withdrawal deal as “Brexit in name only”, Mr Farage said he had come to the conclusion that standing down candidates in all 317 seats won by Tories at the last election was the only way he could block a second referendum. The former Ukip leader claimed to have rejected the offer of a peerage last week – something which a Tory source rejected as “utter garbage”. Mr Johnson said he had “absolutely not” done a deal with the Brexit Party leader. But opposition parties said Mr Farage’s decision to enter what he referred to as a “unilateral Leave alliance” effectively meant Conservatives and the Brexit Party were fighting the general election in league with one another. Mr Corbyn said: “One week ago Donald Trump told Nigel Farage to make a pact with Boris Johnson. Today, Trump got his wish. This Trump alliance is Thatcherism on steroids and could send £500m a week from our NHS to big drugs companies. It must be stopped.”

Brexit: Farage Capitulates…or Does He? ---Yves Smith - Boris Johnson got a big break yesterday when Nigel Farage announced that the Brexit Party would not contest any of the 317 seats currently held by Tories.This move was a significant climbdown from Farage’s clearly loopy demand that Johnson renounce his own Brexit deal, particularly since Farage got nothing in return (or at least of an official nature, who know what private threats and entreaties were made). There is every reason to think that this is what is appears to be, a free concession made by Farage, likely as a result of the fact that the Brexit Party was losing support.Richard North argues that Farage has not helped Johnson quite as much as appearances suggest:But, if Farage – as he insists – is acting to stave off a Corbyn victory – then once again he has failed to think it through. It is not the seats which the Tories won in the last election that count. With or without Farage’s intervention, Johnson will probably win most of these anyway.More importantly, there are the Labour marginals, which the Tories must secure in the coming election if Johnson is to secure a working majority. Yet Farage intends to front canadiates in all of these seats.If we use the Ukip results in the 2015 general election as an indicator of the Farage Party performance, we can see that his candidates could still do serious damage to Johnson’s electoral prospects.For instance, in England, the most vulnerable target seat is Kensington where Labour has a majority of 20 over the Conservatives. Ukip didn’t stand in 2017 but it took 1,557 votes in the 2015 election. That level carried over to 12 December could make the difference between victory and defeat, especially as the Lib-Dems are also eroding the vote of the leading pair, without taking enough to win the seat.Next in line is Dudley North with a Labour majority of 22. In 2017, Ukip did stand and took 2,144 votes. But in 2015, it took a whopping 9,113 votes. Using that as a comparator, the Brexit Party would almost certainly give the seat to Labour this time round. North goes through quite a few more districts with granular details. Consistent with his take, The Sun and The Times both have reports of Tories urging Farage to pull out of even more districts. The Financial Times goes as far as to suggest that Farage hints at broader retreat after ditching battle for Tory seats when it seems they are reading quite a lot into an ambiguous remark:But Mr Farage refused to deny that he could further help Mr Johnson by standing down Brexit party candidates in Labour seats. “I’ve not considered this at this moment in time,” he said. “But there isn’t much time.”Oddly, the pink paper did not report on Farage’s professed reason for his big course change: to prevent a second referendum. One wonder if the plunge in Brexit Party popularity also meant he’d have trouble stumping up enough funds and candidates to contest 650 seats. The Guardian, in a snap analysis, said it expected the Tories and Brexit Party to come to an agreement:

Farage’s ‘unilateral’ Leave alliance doesn’t guarantee the Tories a majority Nigel Farage has today announced that the Brexit party will be unilaterally creating one. The Brexit party leader rowed back on an earlier plan to stand candidates in 600 seats. Instead, the Brexit party will focus its efforts on Labour-held seats. Speaking from Hartlepool, Farage said he would not field candidates in the 317 seats won by the Conservatives at the 2017 general election. Explaining his change of heart, Farage pointed to a Twitter video Boris Johnson released on Sunday night in which he clarified his commitment to no transition extension and to the UK diverging from the EU in any post-Brexit trade deal. Farage said he had come to the conclusion that fielding 600 candidates could lead to Lib Dem gains in the south – and a hung parliament. Instead, the party will now focus its efforts on traditional Labour heartlands which voted to Leave. So is this a game changer for the Conservatives? It will be viewed as helpful in tight marginals the Tories hope to hold, both in the South West and in Scotland. It is also very good news for the Labour/Tory marginals the party won in 2017, such as Walsall North. However, the Tory route to a majority rests on not only holding the bulk of the 317 seats they won in 2017 but going on to win many more in areas that voted heavily to Leave. High on that list is the so-called red wall – the seats in the Midlands and North which are traditionally Labour but backed Brexit at the referendum. It is clear from Farage’s comments today that he believes his party will fare best in seats like Hartlepool and Ashfield. But the Tories also hope to win these seats by wooing Leave voters. It follows that Farage’s announcement today isn’t necessarily an election game changer in terms of a Leave majority. The Tories will likely still have to deal with the threat of the Brexit party in tight Labour/Tory target seats like Barrow and Furness, Great Grimsby and Workington. Some Tory MPs hope that the Brexit party could help them here if Labour Leave voters who don’t want to vote Tory defect and thereby do not vote Labour. In marginals like Dudley North where the Labour majority is 22 votes, a Brexit party candidate standing could make all the difference. One optimistic Tory argues that this is still a net gain as the ‘unilateral’ Leave alliance does mean that in these seats the Tories can at least point to comments on the doorstep by Nigel Farage in which he himself admits the Brexit party risks splitting the Leave vote. Farage now accepting Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal (be it reluctantly) could also mean more Leave voters come round to the Tories. Nigel Farage’s ideal scenario is that the Brexit party wins enough seats in the election to become kingmaker. If Brexit party MPs were needed to prop up a minority Tory government, they would have a powerful say over the government’s future Brexit deal. However, by standing Brexit party candidates and Tory candidates in these key target areas, there remains a risk that the Leave vote splits and Labour goes through the middle.

UK Brexit Party rejects electoral pact with Conservatives (AP) — Britain’s Brexit Party has failed to reach a tactical voting pact with the ruling Conservatives, saying Thursday that it will field 300 candidates in next month’s election to force Prime Minister Boris Johnson to deliver on his promise of a clean break with the European Union. Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage said the party had to contest the seats in Britain’s Dec. 12 election to keep the pressure on Johnson, rebuffing Conservative arguments that doing so risks splitting the pro-Brexit vote and boosts parties that want to remain in the EU. His comments came on the final day for candidates to register. “What we’ve got so far in this campaign is for Boris to promise to change direction, what we now have to do is to hold him to account, to make sure we get a proper Brexit, and that’s my job,” Farage told the BBC. Britain is holding a national election on Dec. 12 because Johnson wants to secure a majority so he can take the U.K. out of the bloc by the next Brexit deadline of Jan. 31. All 650 seats in the House of Commons are up for grabs. Johnson reached a Brexit deal with the EU but so far has not persuaded enough British lawmakers to pass it. The single-issue Brexit Party, meanwhile, prefers to leave the EU without a deal, something that economists say would damage both the British and EU economies. The Brexit Party earlier this week agreed not to run candidates in 317 parliamentary seats currently held by Conservative lawmakers after Johnson pledged there would be no further extension of the Brexit deadline. But the Daily Telegraph reported Thursday that Farage rejected a last-minute strategic offer from the Conservatives to promise to only put up token opposition in 40 key seats if the Brexit Party would stand aside in other constituencies. After the deadline for candidate nominations passed, Farage tweeted that a top Johnson adviser had been calling Brexit Party candidates and offering them jobs if they would withdraw from their races.

UK economy dodges recession, but annual growth slowest since 2010 - (Reuters) - Britain’s economy grew at its slowest annual pace in nearly a decade during the three months to September as the global slowdown and Brexit worries hit manufacturing and business investment, official figures showed on Monday. While the economy dodged outright recession, the rebound in quarterly growth was smaller than expected. Output fell in August and September - when Britain looked at risk of leaving the European Union without a transition deal. A month before an early election, finance minister Sajid Javid hailed what he called “solid” growth figures, a view challenged by the opposition Labour Party. “The fact that the government will be celebrating 0.1% growth in the last six months is a sign of how low their hopes and expectations for our economy are,” Labour’s top finance official John McDonnell said. Economists said ongoing political uncertainty and a weak global backdrop could prompt the Bank of England to cut interest rates next year, even if Prime Minister Boris Johnson passes his Brexit deal before a new Jan. 31 deadline. “Narrowly avoiding a recession is nothing to celebrate,” said Tej Parikh, economist at the Institute of Directors. “The UK economy has been in stop-start mode all year, with growth punctuated by the various Brexit deadlines.” Annual gross domestic product growth fell to 1.0% in the third quarter from 1.3% in the April-June period, the Office for National Statistics said, its lowest since early 2010. This was weaker than the euro zone, which grew by 1.1%. The quarterly growth rate recovered to 0.3% after contracting 0.2% in the three months to June when businesses wrestled with an overhang of raw materials stockpiled before the original Brexit deadline in March. But it was a weaker rebound than the 0.4% growth predicted by the BoE and private sector economists. Britain’s economy has lost momentum since the 2016 Brexit referendum, before which it typically grew more than 2% a year. Last week the BoE nudged up its growth forecast for 2019 to 1.4% from 1.3%. This would be the same growth rate as last year and the weakest since the financial crisis. For 2020, the BoE expects a slowdown to 1.3%. Two BoE policymakers voted to cut rates last week and others could follow if growth remains weak and uncertainty persists about the longer-term trade ties between Britain and the EU. “The BoE forecasts an investment rebound if a Brexit deal removes no-deal risk but we think this is optimistic,” said Nancy Curtin, chief investment officer at Close Brothers. Business investment held steady in the third quarter but dropped by 0.6% on the year, the ONS said. Manufacturing output fell more than expected, down 0.4% on the quarter and 1.8% on the year. Household spending, which has been more resilient than business investment, due to low unemployment and rising wages, rose by 0.4% on the quarter. Government spending grew by 0.3%.

UK inflation dips to three-year low, adding to BoE rate cut talk - (Reuters) - British inflation fell to its lowest level in nearly three years in October, official data showed on Wednesday, adding to expectations that the Bank of England’s next move might be an interest rate cut. Consumer prices rose at an annual rate of 1.5%, lower than September’s 1.7%, as a power regulator’s tariff cap pushed down electricity and gas prices for 15 million homes. It was the lowest consumer price index reading since November 2016, the Office for National Statistics said, giving households, whose spending has helped the economy through the Brexit crisis, a bit of a boost before next month’s election. A Reuters poll of economists had pointed to a 1.6% increase. British government bond prices jumped, with the yield on 10-year gilts GB10YT=RR falling by more four basis points on the day. “Inflation dipping more than expected to 1.5% in October will... likely fan expectations that the Bank of England will cut interest rates before too long if the economy fails to pick up from its current struggles,” said Howard Archer, an economist with forecaster EY Item Club. Two BoE policymakers voted to cut rates last week, citing signs of a cooling in the labour market, and their colleagues sounded cautious about the slower global economy and Brexit risks. “Overall, the figures do little to change our view that inflation will spend more time below 2% than above it in 2020 and that if Brexit is delayed further, interest rates will be cut, in May 2020,”

Life expectancy in UK falls amid rise in avoidable deaths in disadvantaged communities, report shows Life expectancy predictions in the UK has fallen to levels last seen 16 years ago as widening social inequalities lead to a rise in avoidable deaths in disadvantaged communities, a new report shows. Research by academics at the London School of Economics (LSE) reveals that while people in wealthier areas of the country continue to live longer, life expectancy is stalling – or even reversing – for those living in the most deprived areas. The analysis of mortality data shows that the UK is failing to reduce avoidable deaths – such as accidental poisoning, alcohol consumption and suicide – among under 50s, and in some sub-groups these deaths are increasing, according to the findings. While life expectancy for this age group continues to rise in European countries such as France and the Netherlands, the UK is falling behind, with the research showing that avoidable deaths are now the leading causes of death among UK adults aged 20-49. The Health Foundation, which commissioned the report, warned that this indicated Britain was following “worrying” trends seen in the US, where there has been a spike in alcohol and drug related deaths among young people. In Scotland, drug-related death rates now exceed those of the US, with 218 deaths per million population, compared to 217 per million. The research also found that women living in the most deprived areas of the UK are now expected to live for 78 years and eight months, versus 86 and two months years in the least deprived – more than seven years less. The average life expectancy for women in the UK, at 83 years, is one of the lowest among comparable countries, more than three years behind Spain.

‘I would burn in hell before returning’ – why British teachers are fleeing overseas - A call-out to Guardian readers for their experiences has drawn more than 300 responses – many heartfelt – from teachers who reluctantly left their jobs in the state sector in the UK to teach abroad, usually in well-funded private institutions. Often exhausted by their experiences in the UK, they complain of excessive workload, stress, a lack of work-life balance, funding cuts, a dread of Ofsted, an obsession with paperwork, accountability measures, poor behaviour, children bringing weapons to school, high staff turnover … the list goes on. The diversity of destinations is remarkable. Teachers have contacted us from Vietnam, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Azerbaijan, Qatar, Spain, Italy, Slovakia, Colombia, Sweden and Germany. They wrote from France, Bali, Singapore, Seychelles, Tanzania, the US, South Korea, Brunei, Japan, Hungary, Belgium, Oman, Jordan, the Czech Republic, Bahrain, Ghana, Ireland, Russia, Zambia, Luxembourg, Cyprus, India, Latvia, Ecuador, the Philippines, the Netherlands, Israel, Uganda, Kuwait, Borneo, Peru, Austria, Kazakhstan and Hungary. Not forgetting Ascension Island, Egypt, Myanmar, Norway, Saudi Arabia and Moldova. The benefits of working abroad, they say, don’t just include sunshine, free accommodation and tax-free earnings, but small classes, more resources, better work-life balance, freedom to travel, capacity to save, private healthcare, free flights home and no Ofsted. Their strength of feeling is eye-opening. “I would burn in hell before returning to teach in an English school,” says one teacher who moved to the Netherlands. “Teaching in the UK is exhausting,” says a secondary school art and design teacher who moved to an international school in Thailand. Though few of the teachers who contact us are motivated by money, one 33-year-old left her primary school in Tower Hamlets, east London, for an international school in Yangon in Myanmar because she couldn’t make enough money to survive in London. Now she earns £5,000 more, plus a yearly bonus, in a package topped off with free accommodation, flights and medical insurance. “Working conditions are better, with sizes that are half of a UK class. It would be insane for me to return to the UK.”

Top lawyer calls Prince Andrew BBC interview 'a catastrophic error' - Prince Andrew’s decision to take part in a BBC interview on his relationship with the convicted paedophile Jeffrey Epstein has been described as a “catastrophic error” by a top media lawyer. The Queen’s son has broken his silence on his friendship with the disgraced financier and allegations of a non-consensual sexual encounter with a 17-year-old, in a pre-recorded interview for Saturday evening’s Newsnight programme. However, media commentators have said the decision to take part in the interview could backfire. Mark Stephens, who represented James Hewitt after his alleged affair with Princess Diana, said: “This strategy only works if you’ve got a complete and full answer to every possible question, and here there are too many loose ends. “If he’d kept his silence he’d have been able to remain outside of the case, as he’s a witness and is entitled to diplomatic immunity. He was a private individual and now he’s waived that privacy.”