week ending Jan 25

 Jamie Dimon says his one big worry is negative interest rates - J.P. Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon told CNBC on Wednesday that negative interest rates are one of the only things that concern him in a market that’s otherwise in a “Goldilocks place.” “The only thing I have trepidation about is negative interest rates, QE, and the diversion between stock prices and bond prices and yield and stuff like that,” Dimon said on “Squawk Box” from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. “It’s kind of one of the great experiments of all time, and we still don’t know what the ultimate outcome is,” Dimon said. Negative interest rates have been used by central banks in Japan and Europe to try to stimulate their stubbornly stagnant economies. Economists are divided over their effectiveness to reignite economic growth, and some fear negative rates can keep growth subdued rather than lift it. They have been used in conjunction with quantitative easing, in the U.S. and abroad, where central banks purchase assets like Treasury bills. “I think it’s very hard for central banks to forever make up for bad policy elsewhere,” Dimon said. “That puts in them in a trap. We’re a little bit in that trap today with rates so low around the world.” “I would never buy a negative rate bond, not unless I was forced,” Dimon added. “In history whenever you’ve seen anything like that, it doesn’t necessarily end well.” President Donald Trump, however, touted the use of negative interest rates at his Davos address on Tuesday, saying the U.S. is at a competitive disadvantage because its rates are higher. “Even now as the United States is by far the strongest economic power in the world, it’s not even close. … We’re forced to compete with nations that are getting negative rates, something very new,” Trump said. “Meaning, they get paid to borrow money, something I could get used to very quickly. Love that.”

Trump just made a joke about negative rates -- FT Alphaville - We have another entry in the rather slim compendium that is interest rates humour, via Donald Trump at Davos yesterday:  We’re competing with nations that are getting negative rates, something very new, meaning they get paid to borrow money. Something I could get used to. Love that. Gotta pay back your loan, how much am I getting? The POTUS then went on to say that despite this massive competitive disadvantage, the Trump Organization the American economy is posting brilliant numbers. We really wanted to include this in our series ‘Trump said it, and it’s right’. But for the most part he’s not, so we’re making it a ‘Someone is wrong on the internet’ instead. Sure, the US is competing with nations like Germany, where government borrowing costs are indeed in negative territory. The yield on ten-year government debt for the eurozone’s largest economy is minus 0.249 per cent, compared with 1.7778 per cent for the equivalent US Treasury note on Tuesday afternoon, according to Bloomberg data. Yet that in large part reflects the fact that the US economy has for years been doing much better than its rivals and doesn’t need so much monetary support. Just as German borrowing costs track those of the European Central Bank, the rate the US government pays to borrow tends to broadly follow the federal funds rate set by monetary policymakers at the Federal Reserve.The Fed raises rates when conditions are favourable, and lowers them when they are less so. The higher rates therefore reflect the US’s economic success relative to that of the eurozone. And far from being a mark of achievement, negative rates would signify the US economy had gone badly awry under his stewardship. We’d also mention that the ultra-low yield on Bunds partly reflects the fact that e ven though Germany has for years in effect been paid to borrow, it has until very recently neglected to take advantage of it.

 Trump says GDP would be near 4% and the Dow would be soaring if it weren’t for the Fed - President Donald Trump told CNBC on Wednesday that U.S. economic growth would have been closer to 4% if it weren’t for the lingering effect of Federal Reserve rate hikes. “That was a big blip that should not have taken place. It should not have happened. But it’s one of those things. But we had Boeing. We had the big strike with General Motors. We had things happen that are very unusual to happen,” Trump told CNBC’s Joe Kernen in an interview from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. The president also suggested that the stock market would be even higher than its already record-setting highs if the Fed hadn’t raised rates so quickly before cutting them three times during 2019. “Now, with all of that, had we not done the big raise on interest, I think we would have been close to 4%,” Trump said of the U.S. gross domestic product. “And I – I could see 5,000 to 10,000 points more on the Dow. But that was a killer when they raised the rate. It was just a big mistake.” The president’s remarks Wednesday echoed those his top economic advisor Larry Kudlow made to CNBC on Tuesday, when he predicted 3% growth in U.S. GDP in 2020. “This is a long cycle, and what you’ve got here in the Trump years is essentially a mini upcycle,” Kudlow said Tuesday. “You’ve gone from 1.5% to 2% growth. We had it going at almost 4%, then the Fed tightened.”

Chicago Fed "Index Points to Slower Economic Growth in December" -- From the Chicago Fed: Chicago Fed National Activity Index points to slower economic growth in December - Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –0.35 in December from +0.41 in November. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from November, and three of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in December. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved up to –0.23 in December from –0.31 in November. This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967.

US Leading Economic Indicators Plunge At Worst Rate Since 2009 - A worse-than-expected 0.3% MoM drop in the Conference Board leading economic index, ending the year with 5 down months in the last six.

• •The biggest positive contributor to the leading index was stock prices at 0.09
• •The biggest negative contributor was jobless claims at -0.23 The LEI is clearly not recovering...

And on a year-over-year basis, the LEI is up just 0.1% - its weakest YoY move since Nov 2009...

The Truth About the Trump Economy - Joseph Stiglitz - As the world’s business elites trek to Davos for their annual gathering, people should be asking a simple question: Have they overcome their infatuation with US President Donald Trump?It is becoming conventional wisdom that US President Donald Trump will be tough to beat in November, because, whatever reservations about him voters may have, he has been good for the American economy. Nothing could be further from the truth. Two years ago, a few rare corporate leaders were concerned about climate change, or upset at Trump’s misogyny and bigotry. Most, however, were celebrating the president’s tax cuts for billionaires and corporations and looking forward to his efforts to deregulate the economy. That would allow businesses to pollute the air more, get more Americans hooked on opioids, entice more children to eat their diabetes-inducing foods, and engage in the sort of financial shenanigans that brought on the 2008 crisis.5 Today, many corporate bosses are still talking about the continued GDP growth and record stock prices. But neither GDP nor the Dow is a good measure of economic performance. Neither tells us what’s happening to ordinary citizens’ living standards or anything about sustainability. In fact, US economic performance over the past four years is Exhibit A in the indictment against relying on these indicators.1To get a good reading on a country’s economic health, start by looking at the health of its citizens. If they are happy and prosperous, they will be healthy and live longer. Among developed countries, America sits at the bottom in this regard. US life expectancy, already relatively low, fell in each of the first two years of Trump’s presidency, and in 2017, midlife mortality reached its highest rate since World War II. This is not a surprise, because no president has worked harder to make sure that more Americans lack health insurance. Millions have lost their coverage, and the uninsured rate has risen, in just two years, from 10.9% to 13.7%.1One reason for declining life expectancy in America is what Anne Case and Nobel laureate economist Angus Deaton call deaths of despair, caused by alcohol, drug overdoses, and suicide. In 2017 (the most recent year for which good data are available), such deaths stood at almost four times their 1999 level.1 The only time I have seen anything like these declines in health – outside of war or epidemics – was when I was chief economist of the World Bank and found out that mortality and morbidity data confirmed what our economic indicators suggested about the dismal state of the post-Soviet Russian economy.

 STATEMENT: House Budget Committee, “Reexamining the economic costs of debt”, Nov 20, 2019 --  L. Randall Wray -- This blog is based on the testimony I provided to the US House of Representatives. My written statement will be published in the Congressional Record (a version is also at the Levy Economics Institute: http://www.levyinstitute.org/publications/statement-of-senior-scholar-l-randall-wray-to-the-house-budget-committee. The full statement was co-authored with Yeva Nersisyan. I will argue that the Federal Government’s deficit and debt are not so scary as we are led to believe.Neither the deficit nor the debt ratio is on an unsustainable path. In some sense, chronic deficits and a rising debt ratio are normal.They are not due to out of control spending—now or in the future. They serve a useful public purpose. In any case they are largely outside the control of Congress. It is hard to imagine a scenario in which rising deficits and the debt ratio will create a financial crisis, lead to government insolvency, generate high inflation, or trigger an attack by bond vigilantes. Figure 1 looks at government spending from several angles but just focus on the red line—which is total Federal Government spending as a percent of GDP. It is essentially stable since 1960.

White House has started work on second round of tax cuts to boost growth, Mnuchin says - The White House has started work on a second round of tax cuts even as the budget deficit continues to grow, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Thursday. “The president has asked us to start working on what we call ‘tax 2.0,’ and that will be additional tax cuts,” Mnuchin told CNBC during an interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos. “They’ll be tax cuts for the middle class, and we’ll also be looking at other incentives to stimulate economic growth.” Talk of election-year tax cuts comes amid a swelling budget deficit that eclipsed $1 trillion for the 2019 calendar year. In addition, the total government debt recently passed $23 trillion, despite President Donald Trump’s promises that economic growth would wipe out the deficit and pull down the federal IOU. Mnuchin maintained that the tax cuts would pay for themselves even as growth as fallen well short of the administration’s promises of 3%-4% annually. He did concede that the level of spending needs to be “There’s no question that we need to slow down the rate of growth of government spending, because we cannot sustain these deficits growing at these levels,” he said. The White House pushed through a bill in late 2017 that pulled the business tax down sharply and also lightened the load for many individual taxpayers. However, economic growth has fallen below 3%, and the red ink has continued to grow. Under the plan the administration will advance this time, the cuts will be more targeted to the middle class. “The president feels that we need to continue to incentivize the middle class, that their taxes have been too high historically,” Mnuchin said. “We’ve had big tax cuts already, and that’s an area that we’ll continue to look at.”

Trump Says Middle-Class Tax Cut To Be Announced Within Three Months - President Trump told The Wall Street Journal on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that the White House plans to unveil a new tax-cut proposal for the middle class in approximately 90 days. "We're talking a fairly substantial ... middle-class tax cut that'll be subject to taking back the House and obviously keeping the Senate and keeping the White House," Trump said. He declined to elaborate more on the specifics of the plan. Trump has been touting the idea of a middle-class tax cut since the 2018 midterm election, and more recently since the 2020 election year has begun.White House National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow said last week that tax cut 2.0 could be unveiled in the summer months.Kudlow said the White House is considering a payroll tax cut and an expansion of the earned income tax credit. He said the new tax cut could spur consumer growth and help the middle class prosper.However, Trump told reporters back in 2017 that tax cuts were "going to be one of the great gifts to the middle-income people of this country that they've ever gotten for Christmas" – it turned out that tax cuts funded by taxpayer debt allowed mega-corporations to repatriate hundreds of billions of dollars, not for CapEx purposes like what was promised, but rather a massive stock buyback binge.With the effectiveness of the first tax cut waning, Trump has likely been advised by his economic team that the manufacturing recession has triggered an employment slowdown that could start damaging consumer spending, which is at least 68% of GDP. The next round of supply-side tax cuts should be viewed as "emergency tax cuts" because the "greatest economy ever" is continuing to decelerate and could be seen as a last-ditch effort by the administration to push off the recession for another couple quarters.

Pentagon Racks Up $35 Trillion in Accounting Changes in One Year - The Pentagon made $35 trillion in accounting adjustments last year alone -- a total that’s larger than the entire U.S. economy and underscores the Defense Department’s continuing difficulty in balancing its books. The latest estimate is up from $30.7 trillion in 2018 and $29 trillion in 2017, the first year adjustments were tracked in a concerted way, according to Pentagon figures and a lawmaker who’s pursued the accounting morass. The figure dwarfs the $738 billion of defense-related funding in the latest U.S. budget, a spending plan that includes the most expensive weapons systems in the world including the F-35 jet as well as new aircraft carriers, destroyers and submarines. “Within that $30 trillion is a lot of double, triple, and quadruple counting of the same money as it got moved between accounts,” said Todd Harrison, a Pentagon budget expert with the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The Defense Department acknowledged that it failed its first-ever audit in 2018 and then again last year, when it reviewed $2.7 trillion in assets and $2.6 trillion in liabilities. While auditors found no evidence of fraud in the review of finances that Congress required, they flagged a laundry list of problems, including accounting adjustments.  The military services make adjustments, some automatic and some manual, on a monthly and quarterly basis, and those actions are consolidated by the Pentagon’s primary finance and accounting service and submitted to the Treasury. There were 546,433 adjustments in fiscal 2017 and 562,568 in 2018, according to figures provided by Representative Jackie Speier, who asked the Government Accountability Office to investigate. The watchdog agency will release a report on the subject Wednesday after reviewing more than 200,000 fourth-quarter 2018 adjustments totaling $15 trillion. ‘Sloppy Record-Keeping’ The “combined errors, shorthand, and sloppy record-keeping by DoD accountants do add up to a number nearly 1.5 times the size of the U.S. economy,” said Speier, a California Democrat. The report shows the Pentagon “employs accounting adjustments like a contractor paints over mold. Their priority is making the situation look manageable, not solving the underlying problem,” she said.

 Trump’s official unveiling of new Space Force logo is being mocked for looking like a ‘Star Trek’ rip-off --President Donald Trump’s official unveiling of the US military’s Space Force logo was mocked on Twitter Friday for resembling an emblem from a long-running science-fiction TV show.“After consultation with our Great Military Leaders, designers, and others, I am pleased to present the new logo for the United States Space Force, the Sixth Branch of our Magnificent Military,” Trump said in a tweet.People on social-media outlets pointed to the similar qualities between the Space Force logo and the fictional Starfleet logo from the TV show “Star Trek.” According to the show’s fans, the shape of the large centered chevron and the accompanying stars mimic the logo from the show, which made its debut in 1966 and spawned a host of movies. George Takei, the actor who starred in show as Hikaru Sulu, appeared to suggest that the show ought to be compensated: “Ahem. We are expecting some royalties from this,” he said in a tweet. In a statement to Business Insider, a Space Force spokesperson said the symbol “was first used as early as 1942 by the US Army Air Forces.”  “Since then, the delta symbol has been a prominent feature in military space community emblems,” Space Force Maj. William Russell said in the statement, adding that “the US Space Force seal honours the Department of the Air Force’s proud history and long-standing record of providing the best space capabilities in the world.” The centered chevron also appears on the US Air Force Space Command’s logo, Space Force’s predecessor. Space Force separated itself from the Air Force’s Space Command to become the sixth branch of the military, joining the Air Force, Marine Corps, Army, Navy, and Coast Guard. Trump signed the National Defence Authorization Act in December, which authorised a budget for the Space Force.

  Pentagon's No.2 General Says North Korea Building New Missiles Fast --The Pentagon's second highest commander while addressing a defense gathering in Washington on Friday accused North Korea of building new missiles "as fast as anybody on the planet". Gen. John Hyten, the vice-chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said during remarks that North Korea is “building new missiles, new capabilities, new weapons as fast as anybody on the planet.” The top commander didn't offer any specifics or evidence on the "new missiles" other than the charge comes after talks between Washington and Pyongyang have stalled. “If you want to go fast in the missile business you need to test fast, fly fast and learn fast. Look at Space X in this country. There were some pretty spectacular failures. Did they stop? No," Gen. Hyten said during his talk at the Center for Strategic & International Studies in Washington."That is what North Korea has been doing and North Korea has been building new missiles, new capabilities, new weapons as fast as anybody on the planet with the 115th most powerful economy in the world. Speed itself is efficiency," he added.

 Hyper Over Russian Hypersonics - Deployment of Russia’s hyper-sonic missiles is causing heartburn in the West. Media headline the news as a dramatic breakthrough on a par with the first Sputnik. “Experts” are rushed into play like those self-styled pundits pronouncing when the initial exit polls appear on Election Day. Pentagon officials assure us that the United States is at the top of the nuclear game and able to respond to (if not exactly match) anything that the Russians can put out there. Ninety eight percent of all this instant reaction is “fog-horning.” It simply signals that something big and important is out there even though we don’t have a clear picture of its actual shape or dimensions — or its significance. That’s normal. What counts is moving swiftly to the “searchlight” stage of close observation and hard thinking. Whether analysts, official or otherwise, get there is problematic. We’re out of practice when it comes to serious strategic appraisal. After all, we’ve been flailing about in Afghanistan for almost two decades with no realistic aim or evaluation of the chances of achieving it by whatever means at whatever cost. The disorientation on Syria is even greater. There, we haven’t as much as figured out who are the “bad guys” and who are the “good guys” — except for ISIS. If you can’t differentiate friend from foe for want of rigorous strategic analysis, your actions are predictably erratic — little more than the expression of mental fibrillations. The same can be said for the rest of the Missile East. The Washington consensus is sure about one thing: Russia is a mortal enemy. We sanction the Russians, we denounce the Russia, we coerce our European partners into ostracizing them, we conjure frightful images of Vladimir Putin while ignoring just about everything he says (as if they were Hitlerian rants). Still, no one seems able to provide a crisp formulation of what the Russian threat is — other than getting in our way in places where we demand to have full sway: Syria, Libya, Iran, Turkey, Ukraine, Georgia. Of course, we also accuse them of working relentlessly to undermine American democracy. Yet, that remains debatable as does everything that bears the dubious label of “Washington consensus.” Anyway, whatever minuscule role the Kremlin might have in the accelerated unravelling of the American Republic, it barely registers amidst the hammer blows struck by the craziness of President Donald Trump, his enablers and a largely compromised, abject resistance.

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists warns of “civilization-ending nuclear war” - On Wednesday, Congressman Adam Schiff, speaking from the Senate floor during the second day of the impeachment trial of President Donald Trump, said “the United States aids Ukraine and her people so that we can fight Russia over there and we don’t have to fight Russia here.” For most of the American population, the assertion that “we” are fighting Russia will come as a surprise. For years, the media has laughed off the danger of a war between the United States and Russia or China as a “conspiracy theory.” But Schiff raised the United States fighting Russia not just as a possibility, but as a statement of present fact. The United States and Russia each possesses over 6,000 nuclear weapons. Just a fraction of these is sufficient to kill billions of people and destroy human society. A war between these two countries, in other words, would be a cataclysmic disaster. And yet, the entire political establishment, from the Democrats with their anti-Russian hysteria to Trump with his bullying threats against the whole world are preparing for military conflict on a scale not seen since World War II. On Thursday, the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, which for more than seven decades has maintained a Doomsday Clock, warned that human civilization is closer to midnight, i.e., total destruction, than at any other period in history, including the Cuban Missile Crisis at the height of the Cold War. “Civilization-ending nuclear war—whether started by design, blunder, or simple miscommunication— is a genuine possibility,” the group said in its annual report. “Any belief that the threat of nuclear war has been vanquished is a mirage.” The report adds, “To say the world is nearer to doomsday today than during the Cold War… is to make a profound assertion that demands serious explanation.” It adds: “[T]he international political infrastructure for controlling existential risk is degrading, leaving the world in a situation of high and rising threat. Global leaders are not responding appropriately to reduce this threat level and counteract the hollowing-out of international political institutions, negotiations, and agreements that aim to contain it. The result is a heightened and growing risk of disaster.” Last year, the United States withdrew from the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty, which prohibited the deployment of land-based missiles, including nuclear missiles, with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers. Led by the United States, the world’s nuclear powers are massively expanding and modernizing their arsenals. In December, the US tested a ballistic missile that would have violated the treaty. These moves are part of US preparations for what Defense Secretary Mark Esper called “high-intensity conflicts against competitors such as Russia and China.” The latest missile test came just days after House Democrats voted for a massive military spending bill that stripped out language limiting the Trump administration’s ability to develop and deploy new nuclear weapons, while handing the president the largest military budget in US history. After withdrawing from the INF treaty in August, the Trump White House is moving rapidly ahead with a $1 trillion plan to expand, “modernize” and miniaturize the US nuclear arsenal, effectively putting US nuclear forces on a hair trigger. The expansion of US nuclear forces is central to the Trump Administration’s refocus on preparations for “great-power conflict” with Russia and China, in line with its doctrine, announced in 2018, that “Inter-state strategic competition, not terrorism, is now the primary concern in US national security.”

The Doomsday Clock is now at 100 seconds to midnight - Humanity is now 100 seconds away from the apocalypse, according to the Doomsday Clock, which was updated today. That’s 20 metaphorical seconds closer to the moment humans destroy the planet, at least according to a group of scientists who keep track of the many ways humanity might bring about its own end. This is the closest humans have been to the end of days — aka midnight — according to the nonprofit Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.The Bulletin’s science and security board convened in November to decide what time to set the clock. The time was set long before heightened military actions between the US and Iran and before North Korea’s decision to end its freeze on nuclear testing. Those events only confirmed the Bulletin’s consensus that humanity is in graver danger than ever before, board member Sharon Squassoni said. But they also seemed to suggest that the clock’s meager move might have lowballed the risks at hand. The organization started the clock in 1947 as the nuclear arms race began, and it has since focused on risks from nuclear technology and climate change. This year, concerns over Iran and North Korea’s nuclear programs and disintegrating cooperation between the US and Russia on disarmament prompted the Bulletin’s board of scientists and experts to move the clock forward. So, too, did inadequate action on climate change. “I must say as I listened to the excellent but devastating presentation of the scientists, I felt more and more a strong personal reaction — the reaction of an angry granny,” former president of Ireland and climate action advocate Mary Robinson said at the announcement. “This is not acceptable.”   Information warfare is also contributing to thespread of misinformation and crippling humanity’s ability to respond to the dangers we face, according to the Bulletin. It called out the Trump administration for disbanding science committees and sowing distrust in the media by labeling it “fake news.” Deepfakes could make it harder for people and policymakers to discern truth from lies, the Bulletin warned. Facebook is already grappling with how to limit misinformation from deepfakes on its platform, and it has moved to ban them ahead of the 2020 US presidential election. The last time the clock ticked forward was in 2018 when it moved up 30 seconds to reach two minutes before midnight. At the time, escalating tensions between nuclear powers and the buildup of a nuclear arsenal by North Korea, India, Pakistan, Russia, and the US had the Bulletin most worried. The clock had reached two minutes to midnight only once before: in 1953 when world powers were locked in a nuclear arms race.

Trump Suggests He Ordered Soleimani Killed for “Saying Bad Things About Our Country” — Adding more to the ever evolving rationale for the Jan.3 Qassem Soleimani killing which has brought the Middle East to the brink of a new major war, President Trump told Republican donors Friday night that the IRGC Quds force chief was “saying bad things” about the U.S. before his death.   High-dollar donors were gathered for a fundraiser at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate, where Trump offered a play-by-play of sorts surrounding the decision-making behind the admittedly bold and risky move to strike the elite Iranian military leader via drone as he passed through Baghdad’s international airport. Soleimani was “saying bad things about our country” prior to the US taking action, Trump described of his decision.  “How much of this shit do we have to listen to?” Trump was quoted as saying in audio of the event obtained by CNN. “How much are we going to listen to?” The president continued, suggesting that Soleimani’s anti-American invectives were ultimately a convincing enough reason to sway Trump toward issuing the final order.  Trump further admitted the killing “shook up the world” given that from the perspective of Iran and its allies “he was supposed to be invincible.”  However, like with prior official statements surrounding the controversial military operation, which subsequently triggered a move in Iraqi parliament to boot American forces from the country, no specific evidence was offered that Soleimani was an “imminent” threat to US national security in the region. Previously contradictory statements have come out of the administration saying US embassies in the region were under threat of bombing. It goes without saying the Soleimani killing has set off a chain of events which are entirely unpredictable and possibly disastrous for Americans in the region, which could lead to a another significant military conflict and quagmire in the region.

Too Important to Kill -- American assassinations by drone have been routine since the Obama era, but Qasem Soleimani, who was killed while leaving Baghdad airport on 3 January, wasn’t the head of a terrorist organisation but a state official: a major-­general in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and the leader of its Quds Force, the unit re­spons­ible for external and clandestine oper­at­ions. He was a pivotal player in the reg­ion and, at times, its most brilliant military strategist. Iran’s clerical leadership may have dreamed of an Iranian sphere of in­fluence – a Shia crescent – but it was Soleimani who built it, patiently and ruthlessly, after becoming head of the Quds Force in 1998. He spent most of his time on the road, ensuring that Iran’s interests were pro­tected in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Afghanistan, Yemen and the Gulf. He used viol­ence, but he also understood the art of the deal, and co-­operated with the US against the Taliban and Islamic State, even though he regarded America as Iran’s existential enemy for its support of the Shah and Saddam Hussein, and its alliance with Israel.  Trump and his secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, who lobbied for Soleimani’s assassination against the advice of Trump’s military counsellors, aren’t interested in establishing a relationship of mutual respect and recognition with the Islamic Republic. Trump’s actions towards Iran – with­drawing from the nuclear agreement, imposing new and punitive sanctions (intended to bring Iran’s oil exports to ‘zero’), designating the Revolutionary Guard a foreign terrorist organisation, and now assassinating Soleimani – point to a desire not only for regime change but total capitul­at­ion. The goal is a regional order in which Israel maintains control of the West Bank and East Jerusalem and has the exclusive right to nuclear weapons, and Saudi Arabia is given a free hand in Yemen and Bahrain. Iran’s real crime isn’t terrorism or its interference in Syria, but its wish to be recog­nised as a regional power. Negotiations, as Trump and Pompeo see it, are for sissies; Iran only understands the language of force. As neoconservatives used to say at the start of America’s invasion of Iraq, ‘Boys go to Baghdad: real men go to Tehran.’

The Imperial Presidency Is Alive and Well - Less than a week after President Donald Trump ordered the killing of Iranian Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a resolution requiring Trump to seek congressional approval for any further military action against Iran. The Senate will likely pass a similar resolution soon, with several Republicans expected to break ranks to vote to check the president’s war-making power. And Congress is simultaneously deep in an impeachment process born of the president’s dealings with Ukraine. One might be tempted to conclude from all this activity that the legislature is finally clawing back some of the foreign policy and national security power that it has delegated to the president over the last half century, and especially since 9/11. And to be sure, in the weeks before the Soleimani strike, the House heard testimony from a parade of diplomats and national security officials about their experiences making and defending U.S. policy toward Ukraine. The Senate held hearings on the inspector general’s report on the origins of the FBI investigation into possible links between the Trump campaign and Russian interference in the 2016 election. And Congress passed the annual defense bill as well as a trade deal to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement. But don’t be fooled by the sudden congressional focus on foreign policy. Congress remains in a weak position to restrain the president overseas. The Democrats believe that Trump’s efforts to withhold aid to Ukraine until its government agreed to investigate former Vice President Joe Biden constituted an abuse of power and necessitated a vote to impeach the president. But the outcome of the Senate trial will reflect domestic politics, not senators’ views about legislative oversight of foreign affairs. Congress’s inability to pass a veto-proof bill to limit the president’s war powers in Iran, moreover, is one more sign that the balance of power on foreign policy isn’t shifting back toward the legislative branch.

Blundering into War - Patrick Cockburn on what Trump doesn’t know about Iran. -  At the time of his assassination, General Qasem Soleimani’s strat­egy in Iraq and other countries in the Middle East with large Shia populations had become counterproductive. He is now guaranteed the status of a great Iranian warrior and a Shia martyr, in spite of the mistakes he made in the last years of his life. The violent repression, orchestrated by Soleimani, of small-scale protests in Iraq last October provoked something close to a mass uprising by the Shia community. Iran and its proxies were blamed for the deaths of more than five hundred protesters and injuries to another fifteen thous­and; demonstrators chanting anti­-Iranian slogans burned the Iranian consulates in the Shia holy cities of Kerbala and Najaf. Later the same month in Lebanon, vast crowds filled the streets of Beirut, demanding an end to a political status quo that Hizbullah, Iran’s local ally, has fought for decades to create. In Iran itself, protests over fuel price rises were ruthlessly suppress­ed in November: according to Amnesty International 304 people were killed. At home and abroad, the Shia coalition built up by Iran with immense effort since the revolution of 1979 was falling apart; the Iranian state and its two most powerful reg­ional allies, Hizbullah in Lebanon and the Hashd al-Shaabi (the Popular Mobilisat­­ion Forces) in Iraq, were losing their legit­imacy as defenders of their communities and opponents of foreign interference in their countries. Soleimani’s assassination on 3 January has rescued the Iranian leadership from this mounting political crisis. Trump ignored military wisdom – ‘Never interrupt your enemy when he is in the middle of making a mistake’ – at a time when Soleimani, and those who thought like him in Iran, Iraq and Lebanon, had made a grave misjudgment in responding to political unrest with extreme force. As the largest crowds since the funeral of Ayatollah Khomeini in 1989 filled the streets of Tehran and other cities to mourn Soleimani, sen­ior members of the Iranian government seemed astonished by a renewed sense of national solidarity. Demands by demonstrators that the government stop wasting money on foreign adventures, like those organised by Soleimani, gave way to calls for vengeance against the US. Since he withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018, the purpose of Trump’s Iran policy, and particularly the imposition of sanctions, has been to ramp up popular pressure on the Iranian leadership, forcing them to accede to US demands if they want to remain in power. There was plentiful evidence that this approach was working until the Soleimani killing revived support for the government.

Pentagon: 34 Troops Suffered Brain Injuries in Iran Strike - (AP) -- The Pentagon disclosed on Friday that 34 U.S. service members suffered traumatic brain injuries in Iran's missile strike this month on an Iraqi air base, and although half have returned to work, the casualty total belies President Donald Trump's initial claim that no Americans were harmed. He later characterized the injuries as “not very serious.” Eight of the injured arrived in the United States on Friday from Germany, where they and nine others had been flown days after the Jan. 8 missile strike on Iraq's Ain al-Asad air base. The nine still in Germany are receiving treatment and evaluation at Landstuhl Regional Medical Center, the largest U.S. military hospital outside the continental United States. Jonathan Hoffman, the chief Pentagon spokesman, said the eight in the U.S. will be treated at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center in Bethesda, Maryland, or at their home bases. The exact nature of their injuries and their service and unit affiliations were not disclosed. Trump had initially said he was told that no troops had been injured in the strike, which Iran carried out as retaliation for a U.S. drone strike in Baghdad that killed Iran's most powerful general, Qassem Soleimani, on Jan. 3. The military said symptoms of concussion or traumatic brain injury were not immediately reported after the strike and in some cases became known days later. Many were in bunkers before nearly a dozen Iranian ballistic missiles exploded. The question of American casualties took on added importance at the time of the Iranian strike because the degree of damage was seen as influencing a U.S. decision on whether to counterattack and risk a broader war with Iran. Trump chose not to retaliate, and the Iranians then indicated their strike was sufficient for the time being. Tensions have since eased. After the Pentagon reported on Jan. 17 that 11 service members had been evacuated from Iraq with concussion-like symptoms, Trump said, “I heard they had headaches and a couple of other things ... and I can report it is not very serious.” He said he did not consider the injuries to be as severe as those suffered by troops who were hit by roadside bombs in Iraq.

Iranian MP Announces $3 Million Bounty For President Trump's Head - ISNA News reports Tuesday that an Iranian lawmaker offered $3 million for a bounty on President Trump's head after the assassination earlier this month that killed Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran's elite Quds military force and one of the most influential people in the country."On behalf of the people of Kerman province, we will pay a $3 million reward in cash to whoever kills Trump," lawmaker Ahmad Hamzeh told parliament.  There was no mention from Hamzeh if the bounty had official backing from Iran's clerical leaders.Kerman is the capital of the Kerman Province in Iran – the 10th most populous city. It's also the region where Soleimani was born. "If we had nuclear weapons today, we would be protected from threats ... We should put the production of long-range missiles capable of carrying unconventional warheads on our agenda. This is our natural right," the lawmaker added.  During Solemani's funeral -- NBC News' Tehran Bureau Chief Ali Arouzi tweeted that one of the funeral organizers said if all Iranians donate $1 each, they could raise an $80 million bounty for President Trump's head.

Rethinking The U.S. Role In The Middle East - The American Conservative  - Martin Indyk realizes that the U.S. doesn’t have many interests at stake in the Middle East after all:  Today, however, with U.S. troops still in harm’s way in Iraq and Afghanistan and tensions high over Iran, Americans remain war-weary. Yet we seem incapable of mustering a consensus or pursuing a consistent policy in the Middle East. And there’s a good reason for that, one that’s been hard for many in the American foreign-policy establishment, including me, to accept: Few vital interests of the U.S. continue to be at stake in the Middle East. The challenge now, both politically and diplomatically, is to draw the necessary conclusions from that stark fact. It has been clear for a long time that the U.S. has few interests in this region, and the few interests that it has had in the past are less important to the U.S. than they used to be. Advocates of restraint and non-intervention have been shoutingthis from the rooftops for most of the last thirty years, so it is interesting to hear a well-known fixture of the foreign policy establishment reach what seems to be a similar conclusion.  If the U.S. has so little at stake in the region, why does the U.S. need to preoccupy itself with thwarting Iran? If the U.S. would end the economic war and support the original agreement with Iran, the nuclear issue would once again be under control. The belief that Iran has “nuclear aspirations” that need to be curbed and that it is our responsibility to curb them has helped to create the Iran obsession that has taken us to the brink of war more than once in the last year. Not only is there little evidence to support that belief, but it also fuels hostility towards Iran that gives their government added incentive to reconsider their past commitments to keep their nuclear program peaceful. Iran’s “ambitions for regional dominance” are exaggerated, and no matter what their government’s ambitions might be they do not have the ability to dominate the region. U.S. policy towards Iran is driven by excessive and unfounded fear of Iran as a would-be regional hegemon, and that has led us to the current crisis. The U.S. doesn’t get “sucked back in” to the region, but chooses again and again to interfere in things that don’t matter to our security because our government consistently inflates threats from the region and commits too many U.S. resources and too much manpower to counter the exaggerated threats.

 Shame: We Stood By While Saudis Helped Criminals Flee U.S. Thanks to a law quietly passed by Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) and signed by President Trump in December, we now know that the Saudi government has helped an untold number of its citizens committing crimes here in the U.S. flee back to the Kingdom before facing justice.  This includes Saudis accused of assault, rape and manslaughter, including the 2013 hit-and-run of a 15-year-old girl. It is done, press reports indicate, right under the noses of the FBI, Homeland Security, and “other agencies,” who have not intervened, ostensively because of the special security relationship between the two countries. In a stunning report yesterday, Shane Dixon Kavanaugh of the Oregonian/OregonLive said his paper obtained a declassified memo under the new directive. In it, the FBI reveals what it knows about Saudi criminals fleeing ahead of court dates, often in the middle of the night, and even after their passports were surrendered to judges. According to Dixon Kavanaugh: The surreptitious action is done, in part, to spare the wealthy Persian Gulf kingdom embarrassment, the FBI said. Intelligence officials believe the flights from justice will continue without intervention by the American authorities. Saudi officials “are unlikely to alter this practice in the near term unless the US Government directly addresses this issue with (Saudi Arabia) and ties US cooperation on (Saudi) priorities to ceasing this activity,” according to the FBI. Wyden, who initiated the bill that would declassify FBI records about these myriad questions, was stunned when the paper first reported the news on Friday. “I am shocked and appalled at what this memo describes,” he tweeted. “The Trump administration is out of excuses for sitting on its hands while the Saudi government helps these fugitives evade justice.” But as the report relates, these cases go back some 30 years and several presidential administrations. The newspaper has been working on this story since April when it reported several recent cases in Oregon alone: They include two accused rapists, a pair of suspected hit-and-run drivers and one man with child porn on his computer.

The US might finally unveil deal of the century, in the run-up to Israel’s election - Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu needs all the help he can muster before voters head to the ballot box on March 2 – for the third time in a year. Once again, it seems as though US President Donald Trump intends to ride to his rescue. Despite Mr Trump’s best efforts, Israel’s two elections last year ended in stalemate. Each time, Mr Netanyahu’s Likud party and its religious, pro-settler coalition partners tied with the secular, yet hawkish right led by Blue and White leader Benny Gantz. The pressure on Mr Netanyahu to win this time has intensified. His opponents in the Israeli parliament advanced plans last week to set up a committee to weigh whether or not he should be immune from prosecution in three corruption cases. If he is denied immunity, as seems likely, the path will be clear for a trial that might make it impossible for him to head the next government whatever the outcome. This was the background to intimations from the Trump administration last week that it may finally publish its long-anticipated peace plan. The White House reportedly delayed the plan’s release over the course of last year as it waited for Mr Netanyahu to secure a majority government to put it into effect. Leaks suggest the document will bolster Israel’s maximalist demands, scuppering any hopes of establishing a viable Palestinian state. The Palestinian leadership severed ties with Washington a while back in protest. More than any of his recent predecessors, Mr Trump has shown a repeated willingness to meddle in Israeli elections to the benefit of Mr Netanyahu. Shortly before last April’s vote, Mr Trump declared that the US would formally recognise Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights from Syria. The seizure of the 1,800-square-kilometre territory in 1967 remains illegal under international law. And days before the most recent ballot in September, Mr Trump publicly alluded to the possibility of a US-Israeli defence pact. Now US officials, including Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, have hinted that the US peace plan could be published in the run-up to the March election. Israeli officials have been saying much the same to local media since an unexpected visit this month by Avi Berkowitz, Mr Trump’s new aide overseeing the peace plan. This prompted Mr Gantz, the prime minister’s main challenger, to condemn any such move as “blatant interference” in the election.

US official delivers Trump’s threatening message to Sri Lankan president - US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Alice G. Wells delivered a letter from President Donald Trump to President Gotabhaya Rajapakse during a one-day trip to Sri Lanka last Wednesday. The letter, according to the media, emphasised the White House’s “commitment and interest in furthering and deepening [its] partnership” with the island nation. Wells held discussions with President Rajapakse and his brother, Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse, as well as Foreign Minister Dinesh Gunawardena, Tamil National Alliance chiefs R. Sambandan and M. A. Sumanthiran, and “civil society” leaders. Wells was accompanied by Liza Curtis, the Senior Director for South and Central Asia on the US National Security Council and Aliana Teplitz, the US ambassador to Colombo. Significantly, Wells’ trip—part of a nine-day South Asia tour—followed Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s two-day visit to Sri Lanka, which began last Monday. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov was also in Colombo on Wednesday. These high-level visits underscore the increasing rivalry over influence in the Indian Ocean region, primarily between the US and India, Washington’s key ally in South Asia, on one hand, and China and Russia, on the other. Strategically-located, Sri Lanka straddles important Indian Ocean sea lanes. In its attempts to maintain world hegemony, the US is deepening its military buildup and trade war measures against China. Washington’s concerns over Sri Lanka have deepened with Rajapaske’s election as president and his appointment of his brother, a former president, as prime minister. The US considers both men to be pro-China. While the US previously backed Mahinda Rajapakse’s anti-democratic government and its brutal war against the separatist Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), Washington was hostile to Colombo’s close relations with China. In late 2014, Washington initiated a regime-change operation to remove Mahinda Rajapakse, who was ousted in the January 2015 elections and replaced by Maithripala Sirisena as a pro-US president. Wells told the media that she discussed with Gotabhaya Rajapakse “a wider and safer Indo-Pacific region [and] other issues of mutual interest.” The US wanted to strengthen ties by “expanding cooperation on economy and trade, counter-terrorism, security, military-to-military engagements, transitional justice and human rights.” These are code-words to justify the increasing build-up of US military forces across the region.

  Dollar Dips As Trump-Macron Agree On Tariff Truce Through Year-End - According to a French diplomat, French President Macron and US President Trump have agreed a truce in their dispute over digital taxes that will mean neither side imposes punitive tariffs this year. As a reminder, France decided in July to apply a 3% levy on revenue from digital services earned in France by firms with revenues of more than 25 million euros ($28 million) in France and 750 million euros worldwide. After concluding that the tax on digital revenues - that hits large American tech companies including Google, Apple, Facebook and Amazon.com - unfairly discriminated against US tech companies, the Trump administration had threatened to impose 100% tariffs on up to $2.4 billion of French imports, including champagne. But, if the diplomat and Macron's tweet are to be believed, both sides have de-escalated... “Great discussion with @realDonaldTrump on digital tax,” Macron said in a tweet. “We will work together on a good agreement to avoid tariff escalation." 

The US picked the ‘wrong time’ for a trade war with China, Hong Kong businessman says - The United States has chosen the wrong decade to start a trade conflict with China, said a Hong Kong property developer at an informal event at the World Economic Forum Thursday. The U.S. opened a trade conflict with China about two years ago, when it imposed tariffs on Chinese solar panels and washing machines. Since then, both sides have placed additional duties on each other’s products at different occasions. Their standoff appeared to have entered a temporary truce last week when the two countries signed a “phase one” trade deal. The deal did not roll back all the tariffs imposed by the two countries on each other, but both parties agreed to negotiate further that during the next round of trade talks. “I think America picked the war to fight with China … at really the wrong time,” said Hong Kong property developer Tan Sri Dato’ David Chiu, chairman of Far East Consortium International, during a panel discussion in Davos. “They should have picked the war 10 years ago.” “Today, China has 1.4 billion people — the world’s second largest economy,” he pointed out. “Who’s going to consume more McDonald’s and Coca-Cola than China?” China has the largest population in the world, followed by India and the U.S. On the other hand, the U.S. contributes most to the share of global growth, followed by China. Under the phase one deal, China agreed to buy an additional $200 billion in U.S. goods over the next two years. However, some analysts have raised concerns about the deal, with some warning it was a “fragile” agreement. Some experts speaking at the WEF said the deal was a “disaster” and simply an “intermediate step” to allow tensions to calm down.

China Poised to Buy More From U.S., at the Expense of U.S. Allies -  — When the United States and China reached a temporary truce in their costly trade war last week, many wondered how Beijing could live up to its commitment to buy $200 billion more of American-made goods over two years. Surely, critics said, China will either renege on the deal, or it will switch to buying products from American farms and factories that it is currently purchasing from other countries; two realities were becoming clear: China plans to honor the deal, and everybody except the United States may be about to lose a lot of business. The United States and China are already gearing up for the sale of tens of billions of dollars in American-made products to Chinese buyers in the coming months, according to people familiar with the thinking of officials in both countries. If carried through, that would strengthen President Trump’s election-year claims of achieving victory in his trade war with Beijing. The two sides are also clear on what that means for other countries. China could pull off those purchases only if it stopped buying a lot of farm products and merchandise from countries in Europe, Latin America and East Asia. Many of those countries are American allies, and some are not pleased at the prospect of losing China and its giant economy as a consumer of their exports.  Political shifts or economic turmoil in either country could upset plans for China to buy more American goods. Still, should China soon begin to purchase the billions of dollars of American goods at the expense of Washington’s allies, it would highlight a central irony of the trade truce.The United States has long complained that Beijing controls the levers of Chinese trade and uses them for political advantage. State-run grain companies buy American soybeans. State-run airlines buy Boeing planes. When Beijing is displeased with Washington, it can shift those purchases elsewhere, hurtingAmerican workers. The United States has called for the Chinese government to relax its grip and allow freer, fairer trade. Freer, fairer trade would have made last week’s deal virtually impossible, however. Chinese businesses would not and could not buy $200 billion more in American grain, energy and equipment over two years unless Beijing told them to. The trade pact allows Chinese buyers to go elsewhere if American goods are more costly than products from other countries, but Beijing can tell state-run companies that they have more than profitability to think about. European and Latin American countries that won business when China cut off American purchases could lose that new business. The American businesses that lost those sales would get them back and then some. American allies have other reasons to dislike the trade pact. The agreement locks in place 25 percent American tariffs on a wide range of high-tech, Chinese-made goods subsidized by Beijing, from electric cars and farm equipment to commercial aircraft. That could divert Chinese exports of manufactured goods to markets in Europe and elsewhere. The so-called Phase 1 deal is the latest sign of the Trump administration’s unilateral approach to trade and China.

Soybean Prices Plunge To Six Week Low On Lack Of China Buys -Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures plunged to a six-week low on Friday – giving up at least half of the gains seen in the run-up to the signing of the "Phase One" Trade deal last week.  Reuters notes that uncertainty is increasing among traders whether Chinese demand can fulfill trade deal commitments.There's also new concern that a massive soybean harvest in Brazil could entice China to source more beans from the South American country than the U.S. -- due in part because market conditions are much more favorable (i.e., prices of beans are cheaper in Brazil). The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has yet to confirm massive agricultural purchases by China since both countries signed the trade agreement last week. Here are some of the agriculture commitments China pledged in the trade deal:

• · China Purchases to Include Oilseeds, Meat, Cereals, Cotton
• · China to Buy Add' l $19.5B U.S. Agriculture Products in 2021
• · China to Buy Add' l $12.5B U.S. Agriculture Products in 2020

As Bloomberg notes, China is committing to buying about $32 billion in additional U.S. farm products over the next two years, that's coming on top of levels seen in 2017 (pre-trade war). Specifically, China committed to importing at least $12.5 billion more agricultural goods this year than in 2017, rising to $19.5 billion next year. It's unclear just how this will happen without China's destroying existing supply chains. China will also "strive" to purchase an additional $5 billion a year in farm products.

After China trade deal, Europe and UK next on Trump's to-do list (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump vowed to rip up international trade deals and rebalance America’s global trade relationships. Three years into his presidency, he has done just that, using a slew of tariffs, threats, and bilateral talks to shake up relations with nearly every major U.S. trading partner.   With a Phase 1 trade deal in hand with China, and a revamp of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) complete at home, Trump is now turning his attention to Europe, post-Brexit Britain, and India. Washington and the European Union remain at odds over aircraft subsidies, trade barriers, and plans by European countries to impose taxes on digital services. Trump this week renewed threats to impose “Section 232” tariffs of up to 25% on auto imports from the EU, even though he missed a November deadline set by U.S. law to decide on the tariffs. The EU will respond to any additional tariffs with duties of its own, Germany’s ambassador to the United States, Emily Haber, said on Wednesday. France on Monday agreed to suspend a 3% digital tax on U.S. tech companies in exchange for Washington holding off on a threat to impose tariffs of up to 100% on a $2.4 billion list of French imports, a French diplomatic source said. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Italy and Britain will also face tariffs if they impose digital taxes. Washington has already imposed a 25% tariff on European wines and other goods, and a 10% tariff on aircraft, and threatened to raise those tariffs and expand the list of affected products if the subsidy issue is not resolved. Trump has been promising a “massive” new trade deal with the U.K., the United States’ seventh-largest trading partner, since British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s election win in December, but a rift opened between the two countries this week. After Mnuchin and Trump both threatened to put tariffs on imports from Britain if it proceeds with a planned digital tax, Britain’s finance minister Sajid Javid said it would go ahead with the tax in April anyway. Javid also said at Davos that a new trade deal with the EU was Britain’s “first priority” ahead of a deal with the United States.

Trump expands tariffs on steel and aluminum imports - President Trump on Friday signed a proclamation expanding tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from some countries. The proclamation boosts tariffs on derivative steel products by another 25 percent and increases tariffs on derivative aluminum products by another 10 percent. The increase expands on existing tariffs that had sat at 25 percent on steel and 10 percent on aluminum. Trump exempted several countries from the increase: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Mexico and South Korea are exempt from the additional tariffs on steel products, and Argentina, Australia, Canada and Mexico are exempt from the added tariffs on aluminum goods. The president has relied on tariffs to help strengthen U.S. production, an issue he says impacts national security. Trump said in the proclamation that foreign producers have boosted the shipments of derivative goods in order to circumvent the existing duties on steel and aluminum. “[I]mports of these derivative articles threaten to undermine the actions taken to address the risk to the national security of the United States,” Trump said in the proclamation. “[D]omestic production capacity to produce aluminum articles and steel articles for national defense and critical infrastructure is essential to United States national security. “I have concluded that it is necessary and appropriate in light of our national security interests to adjust the tariffs imposed by previous proclamations to apply to the derivatives of aluminum articles and steel articles,” he added. “This action is necessary and appropriate to address circumvention that is undermining the effectiveness of the adjustment of imports.” The tariff hike will take effect on Feb. 8.

US pushes India to buy $5-6 billion more farm goods to seal trade deal: Report -- The United States wants India to buy at least another $5-6 billion worth of American poultry and farm goods if New Delhi wants to win reinstatement of a key U.S. trade concession, four sources familiar with the talks told Reuters. U.S. President Donald Trump cited trade barriers last year when removing India from its Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) programme that allowed zero tariffs on $5.6 billion of exports to the United States. In retaliation, India slapped higher tariffs on more than two dozens U.S. products. Ahead of a Trump visit to New Delhi to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi next month, negotiators on both sides are hammering out terms for a trade deal that would include New Delhi rolling back higher tariffs on some farm goods such as almonds, walnuts and apples, one of the sources said. Both governments had hoped to work out a limited trade deal last year, but struggled to reach an agreement.

 WikiLeaks Editor: US Is Saying First Amendment Doesn’t Apply To Foreigners In Assange Case -  Caitlin Johnstone - WikiLeaks editor-in-chief Kristinn Hrafnsson gave a brief statement to the press after the latest court hearing for Julian Assange’s extradition case in London today, saying the Trump administration is arguing that the First Amendment of the US Constitution doesn’t provide press freedom protection to foreign nationals like Assange.“We have now learned from submissions and affidavits presented by the United States to this court that they do not consider foreign nationals to have a First Amendment protection,” Hrafnsson said.“Now let that sink in for a second,” Hrafnsson continued.“At the same time that the US government is chasing journalists all over the world, they claim they have extra-territorial reach, they have decided that all foreign journalists which include many of you here, have no protection under the First Amendment of the United States. So that goes to show the gravity of this case. This is not about Julian Assange, it’s about press freedom.”

Trump administration unveils rules aimed at preventing foreigners from coming to US to give birth - The State Department on Thursday unveiled new rules that could make it more difficult for pregnant foreign nationals to travel to the United States using tourist visas, citing security concerns. The rules, which will become effective on Friday, are an attempt to crack down on “birth tourism,” or the practice of giving birth in the United States in order to obtain U.S. citizenship for a child. “The final rule addresses concerns about the attendant risks of this activity to national security and law enforcement, including criminal activity associated with the birth tourism industry, as reflected in federal prosecutions of individuals and entities involved in that industry,” the department said. The Trump administration has sought to limit immigration to the United States, and President Donald Trump has been particularly critical of birthright citizenship, or the right of those born in America to citizenship. The Fourteenth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution grants citizenship to “all persons born or naturalized in the United States.” There are no official figures documenting how many foreigners travel to the U.S. specifically to give birth, though the State Department cited reporting from U.S. embassies and consulates it said documented an increase in the trend. The Center for Immigration Studies, a conservative group that advocates for stricter immigration laws, estimated last year that there were 33,000 births to women in the country temporarily on tourist visas between the second half of 2016 and the first half of 2017. It’s not clear how consular officials will determine whether individuals seeking to travel to the U.S. are pregnant. The rule calls for officials to reject the visa applications of individuals whose “primary purpose” is obtaining U.S. citizenship for a child by giving birth.

 Trump administration to deny visas to pregnant women - The Trump administration has launched yet another salvo in its ongoing war against immigrants, and citizenship rights more broadly, issuing an order which will effectively block pregnant women from visiting the United States. According to documents obtained by Buzzfeed and Vox early this week, the State Department has issued a diplomatic guidance to all American embassies telling them to deny visas to women they suspect of coming to the US to give birth. The guidance is putatively aimed at ending “birth tourism”—the supposed phenomenon, hyped by the far right, of women traveling to the US to give birth so that their children acquire American citizenship. This policy makes the process of applying for a US visa—already a confusing, expensive and unpleasant experience for a significant section of the world’s population attempting to visit the US—potentially an even more degrading one. It places substantial new barriers in the way of obtaining a B-visa, which is a short-term visa granted to tourists, business travelers and people seeking urgent medical care. Embassy officials are prohibited from asking applicants whether or not they are pregnant. However, if they “have reason to believe the applicant will give birth during their stay in the United States, [they] are required to presume that giving birth for the purpose of obtaining U.S. citizenship is the applicant’s primary purpose of travel,” and deny them the visa. The applicant can try to persuade the officials to change their minds by demonstrating “a different and permissible primary purpose of travel,” including having already arranged for specialized medical treatment in the US. But, as the guidance makes clear, even this may not be sufficient: “The fact that an applicant has an arranged birth plan with a doctor or medical facility in the United States or simply expresses a preference to give birth in the United States over other locations is not sufficient to rebut the presumption that their primary purpose of travel is obtaining U.S. citizenship for the child.” Visa officials, who are not health care experts by any stretch of imagination, are expected to make determinations about whether or not a woman might need specialized care during her pregnancy. Beyond that, even if they were to determine that specialized care available only in the US might be needed, the guidance directs officials to deny visas if the applicants do not demonstrate “that they have both the means and the intent to pay for all treatment-related costs.” The inhumanity of these new directives is evident, even to those who work within the Trump administration. A State Department official, who spoke on conditions of anonymity, told Vox that pregnant women who applied for these types of visas often did so because the countries in which they lived did not have the kind of medical care that was needed, and oftentimes they did not have the money to get better care. As the official put it, “people will die because of this.”

Head Of Leading Think Tank Suggests Deportation Of Anti-War Iranian Americans - As recently profiled by The Nation, “The Foundation for the Defense of Democracies’ (FDD) militaristic influence on US policy toward Iran is working. Suleimani’s assassination is evidence of that.” The FDD is a pro-Israel think tank funded by prominent American billionaires such as the financier Paul Singer and Home Depot magnate Bernard Marcus, who has relentlessly pushed for a recklessly militaristic US policy against Iran and in the Middle East generally.  According to the Quincy Institute’s Eli Clifton, who has long expertise in tracking the FDD’s money trail, the FDD and US National Security Council arrangement “confirms the widely shared understanding in Washington that FDD is working hand in glove with the administration in shaping and implementing Iran policy.”  On Friday, in a Tweet directed at the Trump administration, FDD’s hawkish CEO Mark Dubowitz appeared to recommend a policy of deporting Iranian Americans who advocate against a regime change war with Iran. Should war break out with Iran, we fear that this a policy proposal the Trump administration may more seriously entertain.

Chicago police to be deputized as federal immigration agents - Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) announced that it will be collaborating with the Chicago Police Department (CPD) in a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between the federal and city agencies last April. HSI, a branch of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), grants CPD officials the legal authority to enforce laws ranging from drug and sex trafficking, cybercrimes, gang activity and immigration. The document was signed by former CPD Superintendent Eddie T. Johnson and James M. Gibbons of HSI. The MOU states that HSI will now have the ability to deputize Chicago police officers as “customs officials” who will be “authorized to enforce the full range of federal offenses” but are not authorized to “enforce administrative violations of immigration law.” The agreement between ICE and CPD was not made public until the Chicago Sun-Times published the MOU in an article on January 14, after it was obtained by Freddy Martinez, a policy analyst at Open the Government. The publication of the agreement contradicts the narrative of Chicago officials who claim that CPD does not cooperate with federal immigration officials. Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot in particular has been attempting to whitewash the agreement. At a press conference the same day, Lightfoot attempted to defend the previously secret MOU, claiming, “The agreement is around Homeland Security, which is a distinct and separate activity. It specifically states that they may not participate in immigration enforcement activities.” Lightfoot’s statement contradicts the MOU’s main point: that Chicago cops will have the authority to enforce the “full range of federal offenses,” which includes illegal immigration. The specific powers granted to Chicago police officials who have been deputized under the agreement are defined in ICE form 73-001 and 19 U.S. Code § 1589a. The documents show that a deputized officer will be tasked to “Execute and serve orders in accordance with laws administered and/or enforced by HIS,” this will include the power to “conduct customs border searches” and carry out other actions that are virtually identical to the duties of ICE agents.

 In Historic Shift, Second Largest Physicians Group in US Has New Prescription: It’s Medicare for All - The fight for Medicare for All received a two-handed boost from tens of thousands of doctors on Monday when the American College of Physicians—in a move described as a “seachange for the medical professions”—officially endorsed a single-payer system as among only one of two possible ways to improve the nation’s healthcare woes. Representing 159,000 doctors of internal medicine nationwide, the ACP is the largest medical specialty society and second-largest physician group in the country overall after the American Medical Association (AMA). The ACP delivered its case in a 43-page position paper—titled “Envisioning a Better U.S. Health Care System for All: Coverage and Cost of Care“—published in the Annals of Internal Medicineon Monday. According to the paper: Although the United States leads the world in health care spending, it fares far worse than its peers on coverage and most dimensions of value. Cost and coverage are intertwined. Many Americans cannot affford health insurance, and even those with insurance face substantial cost-related barriers to care. Employer-sponsored insurance is less prevalent and more expensive than in the past, and in response, deductibles have grown and benefits have been cut. The long-term solvency of U.S. public insurance programs is a perennial concern. The United States spends far more on healthcare administration than peer countries. Administrative barriers divert time from patient care and frustrate patients, clinicians, and policymakers. Major changes are needed to a system that costs too much, leaves too many behind, and delivers too little. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), a leading candidate for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination and the author of the The Medical for All Act of 2019 now in the U.S. Senate, welcomed the development.  “All over this country, a growing number of doctors are sick and tired of the enormous waste and bureaucracy that exists in our cruel and dysfunctional healthcare system,” Sanders added. “They are sick and tired of spending time filling out reams of paperwork and arguing with insurance companies. Medicare for All will give doctors the freedom to focus on making their patients healthy, not making health insurance executives wealthy.” The ACP’s detailed review of the current for-profit system—even with some of the improvements resulting from the Affordable Care Act (ACA)—found that “too many Americans are uninsured or underinsured” and that current spending is “high and unsustainable”—especially as other developed nations show their ability to achieve better or similar outcomes for less while offering universal, government-guaranteed coverage to all. While it did not say that Medicare for All was the only way to achieve a more equitable, accessible, and sustainable healthcare system, the ACP laid out four key recommendations for achieving universal coverage in the United States. They are:

• 1. The American College of Physicians recommends that the United States transition to a system that achieves universal coverage with essential benefits and lower administrative costs.
• 2. Coverage should not be dependent on a person’s place of residence, employment, health status, or income.
• 3. Coverage should ensure sufficient access to clinicians, hospitals, and other sources of care.
• 4. Two options could achieve these objectives: a single-payer financing approach, or a publicly financed coverage option to be offered along with regulated private insurance.

While acknowledging that a transition to Medicare for All could be “highly disruptive” to the healthcare system, the ACP said “single-payer financing approach could achieve [its] vision of a system where everyone will have coverage for and access to the care they need, at a cost they and the country can afford. It also could achieve our vision of a system where spending will have been redirected from health care administration to funding coverage, research, public health, and interventions to address social determinants of health.”

Labor Department limits news outlets’ use of embargoed data (AP) — The Labor Department will begin restricting news organizations’ use of economic data by barring computers from the rooms where reporters receive such data before its public release, department officials announced Thursday.The early access to embargoed data allows news services to prepare articles in advance of the public release of economic reports.While credentialed reporters will still have early access to embargoed economic figures, the department says it’s barring their use of computers during that time. The Labor Department said this is to ensure the security of the data and to prevent anyone from benefiting from early access to the data, which can influence stock and bond markets.Department officials said the ban will go into effect March 1. It will cover all releases that the department issues each month, including the highly watched U.S. jobs report.For several years, reporters have had to surrender their cellphones and other electronic devices before entering the so-called lockup rooms in order to prevent early transmission of the information in the reports. Yet they were allowed to write their news stories on computers that could transmit the data once the embargo lifted.But in a letter to news organizations, Labor said the current process still gives some news organizations a competitive edge by allowing them to transmit the data through high-speed networks to serve such clients as investment firms. “These updated procedures will strengthen the security of our data and offer the general public equitable and timely access,” William W. Beach, the commissioner of the department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics, said in the letter.

National Archives says it altered Trump signs, other messages in Women’s March photo - The National Archives acknowledged this week that it altered a photograph of the Women’s March, which took place the day after President Trump’s inauguration in 2017, to blur some signs held by marchers that were critical of the president. Among the alterations are the blotting out of the word “Trump” in a placard that reads “God Hates Trump” and the blurring of the same word in another sign that reads “Trump & GOP — Hands Off Women.” Words on other signs referencing female anatomy were also altered. The Archives said the decision to obscure certain words was made as an exhibit featuring the march was being developed. It said the archivist, David Ferriero, who was appointed by former President Obama in 2009 and who was involved in the talks, supported the decision. “As a non-partisan, non-political federal agency, we blurred references to the President’s name on some posters, so as not to engage in current political controversy,” Archives spokeswoman Miriam Kleiman said in a statement to The Washington Post. “Our mission is to safeguard and provide access to the nation’s most important federal records, and our exhibits are one way in which we connect the American people to those records. Modifying the image was an attempt on our part to keep the focus on the records,” Kleiman added. Kleiman went on to note that the Archives welcomes groups of students and young people who could view the words as inappropriate. The Archives “only alters images in exhibits when they are used as graphic design components,” she said. “We do not alter images or documents that are displayed as artifacts in exhibitions,” Kleiman added. “In this case, the image is part of a promotional display, not an artifact.” Historians interviewed by the Post expressed disappointment with the decision, saying it was misleading.

Exclusive: Apple dropped plan for encrypting backups after FBI complained - sources - (Reuters) - Apple Inc dropped plans to let iPhone users fully encrypt backups of their devices in the company’s iCloud service after the FBI complained that the move would harm investigations, six sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. The tech giant’s reversal, about two years ago, has not previously been reported. It shows how much Apple has been willing to help U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies, despite taking a harder line in high-profile legal disputes with the government and casting itself as a defender of its customers’ information. The long-running tug of war between investigators’ concerns about security and tech companies’ desire for user privacy moved back into the public spotlight last week, as U.S. Attorney General William Barr took the rare step of publicly calling on Apple to unlock two iPhones used by a Saudi Air Force officer who shot dead three Americans at a Pensacola, Florida naval base last month. U.S. President Donald Trump piled on, accusing Apple on Twitter of refusing to unlock phones used by “killers, drug dealers and other violent criminal elements.” Republican and Democratic senators sounded a similar theme in a December hearing, threatening legislation against end-to-end encryption, citing unrecoverable evidence of crimes against children.

How Washington Is Ramming REAL ID Down Our Throats - Being a patriotic citizen and a former Boy Scout, I recently answered the summons to my local Motor Vehicle Administration (MVA) office to deliver a stash of documents to comply with the federal REAL ID Act. The state of Maryland claimed to be unsure who I was though they never hesitate to cash my property tax payments. Nor did my local government doubt my authenticity when they sent me a ticket from a red light camera from an intersection where the yellow light was quicker than a cat’s somersault.  Even though I was aware of REAL ID perils, I showed up at a local MVA. at the appointed time. The MVA clerk quickly discovered that, while my driver’s license and passport identify me as “James,” the IRS Form1099s I provided her identified me as “Jim”—a well-known ploy by terrorist groups. Luckily, I brought a heap of documents and found a few 1099s with “James.”  Otherwise, I might still be in Identity Purgatory.Actually, I probably would have ignored the summons except that Maryland is revoking thousands—if not tens of thousands —of driver’s licenses of people who fail to obey the MVA’s latest document demands, notwithstanding the MVA employees’ crime wave.   The REAL ID Act has been intensely controversial since its 2005 enactment in the wake of the 9/11 attacks, and fiercely opposed by both conservatives and liberals. Twenty-five states passed resolutions objecting to the law or signaling that they would not comply. The Electronic Frontier Foundation declared in 2007,  “Afederal law that aims to conscript the states into creating a national ID system… is precisely the kind of scheme that the framers expected that federalism would guard against.” But the Department of Homeland Security has compelled submission by announcing that the Transportation Security Agency will prohibit Americans from flying unless they have either a REAL ID Act-approved driver’s license or a passport.  The Supreme Court ruled in 1999 that the “‘constitutional right to travel from one State to another’ is firmly embedded in our jurisprudence.” But REAL ID Act policies have routinely scorned both the Bill of Rights and Supreme Court rulings.

Rogue NYPD cops are using facial recognition app Clearview - Rogue NYPD officers are using a sketchy facial recognition software on their personal phones that the department’s own facial recognition unit doesn’t want to touch because of concerns about security and potential for abuse, The Post has learned. Clearview AI, which has scraped millions of photos from social media and other public sources for its facial recognition program — earning a cease-and-desist order from Twitter — has been pitching itself to law enforcement organizations across the country, including to the NYPD. The department’s facial recognition unit tried out the app in early 2019 as part of a complimentary 90-day trial but ultimately passed on it, citing a variety of concerns. Those include app creator Hoan Ton-That’s ties to viddyho.com, which was involved in a widespread phishing scam in 2009, according to police sources and reports. The NYPD was also concerned because Clearview could not say who had access to images once police loaded them into the company’s massive database, sources said. “They’re playing with fire,” one police insider said. But that hasn’t stopped dozens of cops from outside the department’s facial recognition unit from using the app “to this day” — with a company spokesperson claiming to The Post that the last photo search by an NYPD cop was registered at 10:56 a.m. Thursday. “Numerous investigators from around the department are using the app to this day,” with about 36 active accounts using the program for months and logging thousands of searches, the Clearview spokesperson said.

 App Warning- With One Photo, Strangers Can Find All Your Information - An app called Clearview allows the user to snap a photo of anyone.  Once that’s done, the person who took your picture will have access to all of your information.  Privacy is now all but obsolete.  People will not, for much longer, be able to walk down the street minding their own business anonymously.  According to a report by The New York  Times, it won’t be long before anyone at any time knows exactly who you are while you’re in public.What if a stranger could snap your picture on the sidewalk then use an app to quickly discover your name, address and other details? A startup called Clearview AI has made that possible. Perhaps the worst news is that the police state is already using this technology in some parts of the “land of the free.” The app is currently being used by hundreds of law enforcement agencies in the United States, including the deep state FBI, says a Saturday report in The New York Times. Our Orwellian future has arrived.  We are to be tracked, monitored, spied on, and have no privacy whatsoever at any time. And now, other strangers will have access to your private information is you dare to show your face in public. According to the Times, this human rights violating app works by comparing a photo snapped to a database of more than 3 billion pictures that Clearview says it’s scraped off Facebook, Venmo, YouTube and other sites. It then serves up matches, along with links to the sites where those database photos originally appeared. A name might easily be unearthed, and from there, other info could be dug up online.

The Future We Deserve- Your App-Enabled Dildo Or Butt Plug Could Be Spying On You --And look no further for proof of that than a recent C|Net write up detailing how some internet enabled sex toy manufacturers may not be taking privacy as seriously as one might like - especially given the sensitive nature of the types of data it is collecting. And enabled sex toys are big business. In November of last year, we highlighted how one Nevada brothel was using sex robots and internet-enabled toys to help "satisfy" its customers.  Sex was on full display at the CES in Las Vegas last week, with all types of internet enabled toys on display. Almost all of these toys connect to apps, which then, in turn, collect data. There are apps that monitor orgasms, save vibration patterns and let you connect with your long-distance partner's toy.  And while some in the industry are taking security seriously, the rest of the products are "all over the map", according to Nicole Schwartz, a researcher for Internet of Dongs (yes, that is actually her company's name).  She said: "Two out of three of these companies are not conscientious about security. The ones you are going to see at CES are obviously a little more tech-minded, so you're seeing a particularly biased section of the market."   And it isn't just software that can be compromised that users have to worry about, it's companies' misuse of their data. One company, Hong Kong-based Hytto, was accused of "secretly stor[ing] and monitor[ing] the personal data of users of its Lush vibrator -- including the time and date of use -- without their consent."

"We Need A Full Investigation": Bannon Accuses Pelosi, Schiff And MSM Of Colluding On 11th Hour Impeachment Bombshells - Former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon has called for a full investigation into coordination between Congressional Democrats and members of the media, after articles of impeachment against President Trump appear to have been deliberately 'slow walked' in order to coincide with two 'bombshell' developments in the Ukraine story. "Why did they time this? Why did they wait?" asked Fox Business host Trish Regan."First off, Rachel Maddow should be a witness of fact now. She should be brought in," replied Bannon - referring to the seemingly coordinated media blitz surrounding Lev Parnas, an indicted former Rudy Goiliani associate whose undated, hand-written notes appear to support the claim that President Trump pressured Ukraine into investigating Joe Biden for corruption."We ought to have all the emails and all the text messages between Schiff, between Nancy Pelosi, Phil Griffin at MSNBC News. We ought to bring the whole thing out. How did this get dropped? Why have they been working on this for so long? How did this just come about at the last second? She admitted she's been working on this for months, and the House just got this. The Republicans didn't even see this when the vote when down," said Bannon, adding "This is now a complete farce." "I think there was collusion between MSNBC, Rachel Maddow, Lev Parnas's attorneys, and the entire process." -Steve Bannon

Senate Republicans To 'Weaponize' Impeachment Witnesses If Moderate Colleagues Side With Dems - Trump supporting Senate Republicans have warned their moderate GOP colleagues that if they side with the Democrats to force witnesses in the upcoming impeachment trial, they're going to flip the script and weaponize the process to call controversial witnesses such as Hunter Biden and Alexandra Chalupa - people central to the core claims behind the impeachment, yet were ignored like the plague by House Democrats during their investigations.  The pressure tactics are the latest shift in strategy as Republican leaders try to navigate the factions in their caucus, where moderates want to leave the potential for witnesses on the table and conservatives are anxious to quickly acquit President Trump. -The Hill  Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) warned fellow GOP senators that if four or more of them join with Democrats to entertain witness testimony, he'll make sure the Senate holds a vote on subpoenaing President Trump's preferred witnesses - including the Bidens. "If you vote against Hunter Biden, you’re voting to lose your election, basically. Seriously. That’s what it is," Paul told Politico on Wednesday. "If you don’t want to vote and you think you’re going to have to vote against Hunter Biden, you should just vote against witnesses, period."

GOP senators considering 'kill switch' option should impeachment trial spiral out of control - Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell reportedly is close to finalizing a rule that would allow President Trump's team to move to dismiss the articles of impeachment in the Senate quickly after some evidence has been presented, as a sort of safety valve in case Democrats try to drag out the trial for weeks. The discussions came as Texas GOP Sen. Ted Cruz told Fox News' "Sunday Morning Futures" that the trial could extend "to six to eight weeks or even longer" if the Senate decided to hear from additional witnesses -- a prospect that could interfere with the imminent presidential primary contests, as Sens. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., likely would get pulled off the campaign trail. McConnell, R-Ky., wouldn't be obligated to publicize the final version of his resolution setting the parameters of the impeachment trial until Tuesday, but top Republicans have said they supported affording Trump the opportunity to cut the trial short. Republican Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley, for example, said he would be "very, very surprised" if McConnell's resolution didn't include that kind of kill switch. "I am familiar with the resolution as it stood a day or two ago," Hawley told Axios.. "My understanding is that the resolution will give the president's team the option to either move to judgment or to move to dismiss at a meaningful time." Trump, Hawley wrote on Twitter after Axios' article was published, "deserves the right during Senate trial to ask for a verdict or move to dismiss - otherwise trial will become endless circus run by Adam Schiff." Democrats, meanwhile, have voiced frustration privately that McConnell was holding the final rules for the trial close to the vest. “The House managers have absolutely no idea what the structure of the trial two days before the trial begins,” one source with House Democrats working on the impeachment trial told Fox News.

Mitch McConnell may win the impeachment and lose the Senate - Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) will come out of the Trump impeachment battle a winner. That may be his 2020 high point. The shrewd Senate Republican leader, working with the White House, has convinced his Republican colleagues that the best politics is to stick together with Donald Trump. Even if he has to cave a little on not allowing witnesses — who could either further incriminate or exculpate the president — it'll be largely cosmetic. But the Kentucky Republican may turn out to be an asset for Democrats in the fall, as already competitive challengers against Republican incumbents are tying those incumbents to the Senate majority leader, not so much on impeachment but rather on his legislative role: rushing through right-wing judges and bottling up popular House-passed legislation, including crackdowns on rising drug prices, boosting the minimum wage, some campaign finance reform and pay equity for women. On most of these issues, McConnell doesn't want his half-dozen endangered incumbents to face a vote that big financial interests, always a primary McConnell priority, oppose. Thus, unlike the Republican campaigns against House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) as a “San Francisco liberal,” the Democratic challengers believe these specifics give them an edge, and they're seizing on it. In Colorado, the Democrats’ leading candidate, John Hickenlooper, charges that drug prices are “crushing Colorado families,” references the House-passed bill to hold down those prices and links his opponent, Republican Sen. Cory Gardner, to the Senate leader who's holding up that bill and others. In Maine, Democrat Sara Gideon assails Republican Sen. Susan Collins for going along with McConnell's drive to "jam our nation’s courts with unqualified, anti-choice judges." (The incumbent Maine Republican has opposed a handful of the 187 Trump-appointed judges who have been confirmed.) Iowa's Theresa Greenfield, citing her opponent, charges that "Joni Ernst and Mitch McConnell will stop at nothing" to defund Planned Parenthood. These challenger strategies calculate that it works to link their opponents to McConnell, who has poor poll ratings and comes across as the Grim Reaper, an image he’s actually embraced. In Texas, Democrat MJ Hegar even Tweeted a video of her opponent, No. 2 Senate Republican John Cornyn, showing he's “always running after Mitch McConnell ... so I'm running against John Cornyn.” McConnell's allies have said this is just typical political pablum and doesn't faze the majority leader, as his focus is on running the Senate and keeping the majority, currently 53 to 47. McConnell is adept at keeping this slim majority in line, blocking legislation and confirming judges now that doing so requires only a simple majority.

Roberts under pressure from both sides in witness fight - Senate Democrats are pressing Chief Justice John Roberts to rule in favor of calling witnesses at President Trump's impeachment trial, while Republicans argue it could force his recusal from potential Supreme Court cases. Democrats say it's simple: A trial can’t be a fair one without witnesses. Republicans counter that if Roberts rules on witnesses, he will have to recuse himself from any Supreme Court case on Trump's claims of executive privilege over potential witnesses like former national security adviser John Bolton and acting White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney. “I don’t know how you have a serious trial unless you hear from witnesses who know in fact what the facts are, what happened,” said Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), a leading candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination. “I think it would be appropriate for the chief justice to do what I think should be done, and that is to allow witnesses to testify,” he added. While Roberts is expected to refer major disputes over trial procedures to the entire Senate for a vote, some Democrats hope he will make his own rulings on what they say are basic questions of fair jurisprudence. Democrats argue that holding a trial but blocking the consideration of relevant witness testimony and document review would fall well short of what’s considered a fair trial in any court of law. “We’ve been working to get an agreement with Republicans about the relevant witnesses for the trial and relevant documents and we’re continuing that effort,” said Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.). “Those types of questions will have to be considered as the trial proceeds.” Senators who want Roberts to intervene have pointed to the precedent set by then-Chief Justice Salmon P. Chase in the 1868 impeachment trial of President Andrew Johnson. Chase broke two ties on procedural deadlocks, including a vote on whether he could break ties. Senate Democratic Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) has focused his demands on four witnesses: Bolton, Mulvaney, senior White House adviser Robert Blair, and senior Office of Management and Budget official Michael Duffey. Republicans are pushing back, arguing Trump is expected to assert executive privilege to block the four witnesses Democrats have requested. “The chief justice is supposed to preside, not make decisions for the Senate,” said a senior Senate GOP aide.

Trump Just Hired Jeffrey Epstein’s Lawyers Alan Dershowitz and Ken Starr - Donald Trump is lawyering up for his impeachment trial with a team that looks surprisingly similar to that of billionaire pedophile Jeffrey Epstein. The president bolstered his legal team Friday with attorneys Alan Dershowitz and Kenneth Starr, who helped Epstein evade prison time in a now infamously lenient plea deal with Palm Beach prosecutors. Epstein originally faced multiple charges of soliciting and trafficking underage girls, but escaped with just 13 months of house arrest in a deal that caused Trump’s Labor Secretary Alex Acosta to resign under pressure last year. A suit unveiled by Virgin Islands prosecutors this week alleges Epstein continued to traffic and abuse girls as young as 12 on his private islands until 2018, a decade after Starr and Dershowitz helped him walk free. Epstein died by suicide before facing trafficking charges in New York last year.  Dershowitz, who has also represented controversial celebrities like O.J. Simpson and Patty Hearst, will present oral arguments at Trump’s Senate trial, a spokesperson for the president's legal team told CNN. He previously helped negotiate the non-prosecution deal for Epstein and continued to represent him until at least December 2018. He was also accused of sexually abusing one of Epstein’s victims, Virginia Roberts Giuffre. Dershowitz has denied the allegation.The attorney attempted to distance himself from Trump's legal team Friday afternoon, saying he would be presenting only a one-hour constitutional argument against impeachment. “I was asked to present the constitutional argument that I would have presented had Hillary Clinton been elected and had she been impeached,” he said on The Dan Abrams Show.Starr is known for leading the investigation into former President Bill Clinton, a man with his own Epstein ties, that ultimately ended in the president’s impeachment. Starr joined Epstein’s defense team in 2007, as the disgraced billionaire was facing possible federal charges. He has since defended the actions of Acosta, the Palm Beach prosecutor at the time, saying he “play[ed] tough” with the defense team in negotiations. Trump also added Robert Ray, Starr's successor at the Office of Independent Counsel, to his legal team Friday. His defense is currently being led by White House counsel Pat Cipollone and his personal attorney Jay Sekulow.

George Conway: Why Trump had to hire this legal odd couple WaPo - This is what happens when you don’t pay your legal bills. President Trump, whose businesses and now campaign have left a long trail of unpaid bills behind them, has never discriminated when it comes to stiffing people who work for him. That includes lawyers — which is part of the reason he found the need to make some curious last-minute tweaks to his team,announcing the addition of the legal odd couple of Alan Dershowitz and Kenneth W. Starr. ​The president has consistently encountered difficulty in hiring good lawyers to defend him. In 2017, after Robert S. Mueller III became special counsel, Trump couldn’t find a high-end law firm that would take him as a client. His reputation for nonpayment preceded him: One major Manhattan firm I know had once been forced to eat bills for millions in bond work it once did for Trump. No doubt other members of the legal community knew of other examples. Of course, being cheap wasn’t the only reason Trump struck out among the nation’s legal elite. There was the fact that he would be an erratic client who’d never take reasonable direction — direction as in shut up and stop tweeting. Firms also understood that taking on Trump would kill their recruiting efforts: Top law students of varying political stripes who might be willing, even eager, to join a firm that provides pro bono representation to murderers on death row, want nothing to do with Trump.  That left Trump to be personally defended in the Mueller investigation by a random patchwork of counsel, including Jay Sekulow, a lawyer specializing in religious liberty cases, and John Dowd, a Washington solo practitioner who, according to Bob Woodward, viewed Trump as a “f---ing liar.” (Dowd denies that.) Last but not least, Trump had the assistance of Rudolph W. Giuliani — who has done more than anyone other than Trump himself to get Trump impeached. Precisely because he never had a defense team truly suited for the task at hand, Trump found the need now to add to the mix. But the mix still makes no sense. On the team, as of Friday, are the legal odd couple of Harvard Law School professor emeritus Dershowitz and former federal appeals court judge Starr.  It’s hard to see how either could help.

Here are the five Senate factions that will decide Trump’s fate - As the Senate embarks on the impeachment trial of President Donald Trump — only the third such trial in U.S. history — there’s intense speculation over how senators will vote in the case. And while there is virtually no chance that 67 senators will vote to remove Trump from office, inside both parties are key blocs of senators who will ultimately decide how the trial proceeds and whether Trump gets the speedy acquittal he has publicly demanded. Story Continued Below The House impeached Trump on Dec. 18 on a nearly party line vote – no Republicans backed charges that Trump abused his power and obstructed Congress, while only one Democrat crossed the aisle to oppose both articles. Story Continued Below And the early maneuvering in the Senate trial is just as sharply partisan. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has persuaded all 53 Republicans to support his proposal to open the proceedings using the same rules that guided the 1999 impeachment trial of President Bill Clinton. Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) has repeatedly attacked McConnell’s plan, accusing Republicans of being involved in a “cover up” if they don’t allow witnesses and new documents to be used as evidence in the case. For Trump, the issue will be whether a majority of the Senate votes for conviction or acquittal on either article of impeachment, especially as his reelection looms less than 10 months away. Yet the key for McConnell and Schumer throughout the trial will be convincing the handful of senators in the middle to vote with them on how the trial actually plays out. “Different people are in different political situations and different parts of the country come to it with different predispositions,” said Senate Majority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.). “You have to try and balance all of that. It’s all about the majority. It’s all about 51. It’s about how we get 51?” Here’s a look at how the different Senate factions are shaping up:

 Senate adopts rules for quick impeachment trial of President Trump - The substantive proceedings in the Senate impeachment trial of President Donald Trump began on Tuesday with a full day of wrangling over procedural rules. In a series of votes stretching over many hours, the Republican majority leadership succeeded in pushing through a truncated process aimed at securing Trump’s acquittal before the February 4 State of the Union address. Conviction and removal of an official impeached by the House requires a two-thirds vote in the Senate, where the Republicans hold a 53-47 majority. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell secured the necessary votes to reject a flurry of Democratic amendments to his resolution on the trial rules that would have committed the Senate to access documents withheld from the House impeachment inquiry and call witnesses who had refused to testify at the behest of the White House. All of the votes were along strict party lines. Top on the list of potential witnesses sought by the Democratic House managers prosecuting Trump is former national security adviser John Bolton, a proponent of war against Iran and North Korea who broke with Trump over his withholding of military aid from Ukraine. The de facto alliance between the Democrats and Bolton on continuing the longstanding policy of transforming Ukraine into a vassal state and staging ground for war against Russia illustrates the right-wing basis on which the Democrats are conducting their impeachment drive. McConnell was obliged, however, to make certain concessions to Democratic procedural demands in order to satisfy a small number of Republican "moderates" who are considering voting with the Democrats later on in the trial to call additional witnesses, something Trump and McConnell are seeking to avoid. The original plan McConnell submitted called for each side to present opening arguments for up to 24 hours spread out over two days. This is to be followed by 16 hours of questioning by the senators, acting as jurors, an additional two hours of arguments for each of the legal teams, and then a vote on whether or not additional documents and/or witnesses are to be considered. If the latter proposal passes, there will be separate votes on specific sets of documents and witnesses. However, the White House has made clear that even if four Republicans defect and vote with the Democrats to call witnesses, giving the Democrats the 51-vote margin they require, Trump will likely invoke executive privilege either to block testimony from current or former aides or require that they speak behind closed doors in a classified setting. At the last minute on Tuesday, McConnell altered his resolution to allow three days for each side to make its opening arguments instead of two. He also changed the text to stipulate that the evidentiary record of the House impeachment inquiry “will be” incorporated into the record of the Senate trial, instead of “may be.” The statements on the Senate floor by both the lawyers for Trump, led by White House counsel Pat Cipollone and Trump's personal lawyer Jay Sekulow, and the House impeachment managers, led by Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff, made clear the right-wing, antidemocratic politics of both warring factions. They reiterated the themes laid out in a series of legal briefs and documents submitted by the two sides over the weekend.

Senate approves Trump impeachment trial plan, rejects Democrats on documents, witnesses - (Reuters) - The Republican-controlled U.S. Senate voted early on Wednesday on party lines to approve the rules for President Donald Trump’s impeachment trial, rejecting Democratic efforts to obtain evidence and ensure witnesses are heard. As the third presidential impeachment trial in U.S. history began in earnest, Trump’s chief legal defender argued the Democratic case was a baseless effort to overturn the 2016 election but a top Democratic lawmaker said there was “overwhelming” evidence of wrongdoing. Trump was impeached last month by the House of Representatives on charges of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress for pressuring Ukraine to investigate former Democratic Vice President Joe Biden, a political rival, and impeding the inquiry into the matter. The president denies any wrongdoing. After U.S. Chief Justice John Roberts convened the proceedings, the two sides began more than 12 hours of squabbling that lasted into Wednesday morning over Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s proposed rules for the trial. Senators voted along party lines, 53-47, to block four separate motions from Democratic leader Chuck Schumer to subpoena records and documents from the White House, the State Department, the Defense Department and the Office of Management and Budget related to Trump’s dealings with Ukraine. By the same tally, senators also rejected requests for subpoenas seeking the testimony of acting White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney, former national security adviser John Bolton, White House aide Robert Blair and White House budget official Michael Duffey.  Under McConnell’s hastily revised set of procedures for the trial, there will be 48 hours of opening arguments - 24 hours for each side - over six days, easing off an earlier plan to keep them to two days each. It also allows the House’s record of the probe to be admitted as evidence. The arguments will begin when the trial resumes at 1 p.m. (1800 GMT) on Wednesday. Republican senators have not ruled out the possibility of further testimony and evidence at some point after opening arguments and 16 hours of senators’ questions, but they held firm with Trump’s lawyers to block Tuesday’s Democratic requests for witnesses and evidence - a potentially good sign for the White House.

A Cesspool of Constitutional Nonsense-Impeachment in the Senate - The process moves to the Senate. Will the mockery continue after the procedurals and pomp are put to rest and the hearing begins? Or will there be a genuine attempt to find some truth no matter how shallow? Since the House of Representatives closed up its hearings in December 2019, the most interesting event to happen in this story of Trump’s impeachment was the interview with the fellow Parnas in which he stated that Trump knew him and knew what he and Giuliani were up to. What they were up to was getting dirt on Joe Biden for Trump. Even the government’s Budget Office says that is illegal. Before the opening gavel, the documents were carried to the Senate side of the Capitol in a ritualistic promenade. Nancy Pelosi handed out pens and Mitch McConnell repeated the now familiar “the Democrats don’t like Trump and they never have” refrain. As of Friday January 17th, there is little joy in GOPville because Megalomaniacal Mitch might not have been able to cajole and coerce enough of his party members to vote against witnesses and new documents and for immediate acquittal. The big chief John Roberts has even suggested he may subpoena both, which means a battle against the top judge every time he calls another witness or issues another subpoena. Bad optics for a man who isn’t guilty of anything. As the show opens, a certain uncertainty is in the air. Will there be witnesses or will the Trumpists be able to keep the votes preventing any pretense that this thing will be anything more than an infomercial work? I’m not one of those who believes the office of the president has any special sanctity or privilege. It certainly hasn’t had any since I started paying attention in the 1960s. So, when Donald Trump starts talking about executive privilege “for the sake of the office” I gotta’ laugh. I wonder if whichever of his advisors told him to say that did so with a straight face. If there’s one thing Donald Trump has done it would be diminishing that office. Even Richard Nixon treated it with respect. Trump treats nothing and nobody with respect. Never did and never will. He’s incapable of it. That’s one of the reasons he uses his money to get what he wants. Even those who claim to respect him really only respect his money. Those who wish they had the sums he claims to have will grovel for his approval. Those who already are his financial equal suck up to him in hopes they can get some of his. Capitalism is an ugly game of greed and selfishness. Trump may not play that game with refinement, but he plays it well. That’s because his entire persona embodies greed and selfishness. This impeachment trial will prove that in spades. It will probably also prove that the Trumpists don’t give a rat’s ass about that.

 McConnell Blinks, Grants Impeachment Trial Rule Changes Sought By Democrats, GOP Moderates - Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) allowed a hand-written change to the ground rules for President Trump's impeachment trial, granting House Impeachment managers and Trump's defense team an additional day to make their cases. The rule change will mean both sides still have 24 hours to present their case, but three days to do so instead of two. House impeachment inquiry transcripts will also be automatically entered into evidence, as opposed to being subject to a vote at a later point in the trial, according to Bloomberg. "The Senate’s fair process will draw a sharp contrast with the unfair and precedent-breaking inquiry that was carried on by the House of Representatives," said McConnell in a speech from the Senate floor. House Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), meanwhile, says he'll push to amend the trial rules in order to introduce witnesses and new evidence. "The McConnell rules seem to be designed by President Trump, for President Trump," he said at a press conference before the trial, calling Republican efforts "a cover-up."

Poll: Majority think Senate should call witnesses in Trump impeachment trial - Sixty-six percent of Americans believe the Senate should call in new witnesses during the impeachment trial against President Trump, according to an ABC News/Washington Post poll released Friday.Whether or not to bring in witnesses is a major question of the Senate impeachment proceedings so far. Republican leaders have made clear they don’t see a need for more witness testimony, which Democrats have said equates to a "cover up" of Trump's actions.The question is likely to come up for a Senate vote next week.The ABC/Post poll shows 47 percent of respondents are in favor of removing the president from office, compared to 49 percent opposed to the move. The survey also found that 44 percent of Americans approve of the president’s performance in office while 51 percent disapprove.  The poll was conducted through phone calls made Jan. 20-23 where 1,004 adults responded. The results have a 3.5 percent margin of error.

ABC: Recording apparently captures Trump discussing Yovanovitch ouster with Parnas, Fruman -Newly surfaced audio appears to capture President Trump telling associates he wanted then-U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch fired during a private April 2018 dinner, ABC News reported Friday.As described by ABC, the recording appears to capture Trump speaking about Yovanovitch to Lev Parnas and Igor Fruman, former associates of the president’s personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani, at the Trump International Hotel in Washington, D.C. The actual audio has not been released."Get rid of her!" a voice that appears to be Trump's reportedly says. "Get her out tomorrow. I don't care. Get her out tomorrow. Take her out. OK? Do it."Reports from the time indicate that Trump attended a dinner at his Washington hotel hosted by the American First Action super PAC on April 30, 2018.The comment comes after the two Giuliani associates appear to speak negatively about Yovanovitch, whom Trump recalled as U.S. ambassador to Ukraine in April 2019.The White House did not deny ABC’s reporting but emphasized that Trump has the right to place people in his administration who support his agenda.“Every President in our history has had the right to place people who support his agenda and his policies within his Administration,” White House press secretary Stephanie Grisham said in an emailed statement.Asked about the report during a trip in Italy on Friday, Vice President Pence declined to comment on the recording, which he said he hadn’t heard, but emphasized that all U.S. ambassadors “serve at the pleasure of the president of the United States.”

Impeachment managers have trigger man, smoking gun and motive — Democrats believe they have more than a smoking gun in President Donald Trump's impeachment trial. They have a trigger man, they have a motive and they have a record of the key moment. What they would like more of — but do not believe would be necessary in a jury trial — is access to documents they know exist and witnesses close to Trump that they believe would further support the case for removing him from office. "This is airtight," said a person familiar with the prosecution, who noted that all of the witness testimony obtained during the House investigation corroborated a long campaign by top Trump lieutenants to effect the president's Ukraine plan. "What [we] don't have is someone saying, 'I helped orchestrate that months-long effort.'" So as House managers wrapped up their three-day presentation in Trump's Senate impeachment trial Friday and prepared to watch his defense counsel mount a counter-offensive, they tried to leave no reasonable doubt that the president worked to corrupt Ukraine's new president by using $391 million in funds already appropriated by Congress to force him to open investigations that would help Trump's re-election campaign. But Democrats were still hoping against hope they could get more witnesses — and that either Republican senators would be persuaded that refusing to oust Trump would damage the country, or voters would be persuaded that Republicans should be punished for failing to remove him. That, of course, was framed in terms of country over party. "We must not become numb to foreign interference in our elections," Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., the lead House prosecutor said. "Our elections are sacred." He argued that Trump represents an ongoing threat to the republic because he has boasted about welcoming foreign engagement in U.S. elections so long as it benefits him and has failed to take seriously Russia's continuing efforts to tamper with American politics. And Schiff said that if Congress does not respond to Trump's actions — and the threat he poses — he will leave the U.S. without real allies abroad and with a domestic population cynical about the "free and fair elections" that have been a hallmark of the republic.

Schiff says Justice Roberts should rule on witnesses - Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) said Friday night that Chief Justice John Roberts should be called upon to resolve disputes over witnesses for the impeachment trial of President Trump. Schiff’s remarks came as the Senate braces for a make-or-break vote next week on the admissibility of new witnesses and documents for the Senate trial. Republicans have warned that efforts to subpoena testimony would likely draw an assertion of executive privilege by the president, triggering a protracted court battle. But Schiff argued Friday that the Senate could bypass extended litigation by calling on Roberts, who is presiding over the trial, to rule on the issue. “To the degree that there were a dispute over whether a privilege applied, we have a perfectly good judge sitting behind me, empowered by the rules of this body to resolve those disputes,” Schiff said as House managers’ three-day presentation came to a close. The Constitution appoints the chief justice to preside over presidential impeachment trials in the Senate. The rules that govern the arrangement between the Senate and Roberts say the presiding officer “may rule” on all questions of evidence. However, a single senator can appeal the ruling. That would trigger a vote in the Senate, where a simple majority would overturn Roberts. In a moment of levity, Schiff encouraged senators to imagine that scenario playing out. “How often do you get the chance to overrule a chief justice of the Supreme Court?” Schiff said, prompting laughter. “You have to admit, it's every legislator's dream.”

Schiff sparks blowback with head on a 'pike' line - House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) is sparking immediate, bipartisan backlash after he referenced a CBS News report saying Republican senator heads will be on a 'pike' if they break with President Trump on the impeachment fight. Schiff referenced the report as he was in the final stretch of his closing argument on the Senate floor on Friday night. "CBS News report that a Trump confidant said that GOP senators were warned '... vote against the president and your head will be on a pike,'" Schiff said from the Senate floor. Schiff had managed to win some smiles from Republicans, including Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), during his closing statement but the moment drew immediate blowback from Republicans, both from allies of the president and more centrist GOP senators seen as swing votes. Though senators are supposed to sit silently during an impeachment trial, Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), a crucial swing vote, could be seen looking to her colleagues next to her and shaking her head. "That's not true," she said several times from her seat, loudly enough to be overheard from the Senate gallery. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), also viewed as a potential swing vote, immediately knocked Schiff for his rhetoric, calling it "unnecessary."  "That's where he lost me," Murkowski told reporters after the trial wrapped, adding that Schiff "overreached."

Schiff closes Democrats' impeachment arguments with emotional appeal to remove Trump - House Democrats leading the impeachment trial of President Trump wrapped up their opening arguments Friday night with an emotional warning to the Senate and the country beyond: A failure to remove Trump from office would pose a long-term threat to America's very democracy. Equating Trump to a corrupt monarch, Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), the leading Democratic impeachment prosecutor, accused the president of violating this oath by putting his personal interests above those of the country in his dealings with Ukraine — and said he remains a danger to do it again. Appealing to the senators who will act as judge and jury in the trial, Schiff urged them to put aside partisan politics and consider both the nature of Trump’s actions, and their responsibilities to uphold the Constitution. “Whether you like the president, or dislike the president, is immaterial. It's all about the Constitution and his misconduct,” Schiff said Friday on the Senate floor. “What matters is whether he is a danger to the country, because he will do it again. And none of us can have confidence, based on his record, that he will not do it again because he is telling us everyday that he will." Schiff’s comments came at the end of the third and final day of the Democrats’ opening arguments, just before Trump’s legal team begins its defense of the two impeachment charges against him — abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. Schiff claimed, in no uncertain terms, that Democrats had proven Trump’s guilt and unfitness for office over the course of their months of investigations. All that was left, he said, was for senators to take the next step and remove him from office. “Does anybody really question whether the president is capable of what he is charged with? No one is really making the argument, ‘Donald Trump would never do such a thing,’” Schiff argued. “Because of course, we know that he would. And of course, we know that he did.”

 Romney: 'It's very likely I'll be in favor of witnesses' in Trump impeachment trial - Utah Sen. Mitt Romney (R) said Saturday that it is “very likely” he will be in favor of calling witnesses in the Senate impeachment trial against President Trump. However, the GOP lawmaker said he will hold off on making his final decision until after Democratic impeachment managers and the president’s defense lawyers conclude their opening arguments. "I think it's very likely I'll be in favor of witnesses, but I haven't made a decision finally yet and I won't until the testimony is completed," the Utah Republican said Saturday after the first day of the Trump team’s opening arguments, CNN reported. Romney declined to say whether he thought the president’s defense team was effective in the opening hours of their arguments, saying, "I just don't have any comments on the process or the evidence until the trial is over,” CNN reported. Earlier this month, Romney was the first GOP lawmaker to specifically say that he wanted to hear from former White House national security adviser John Bolton in the course of the impeachment trial. Romney told reporters at the Capitol that he wants to find out “what he knows” about Trump’s contacts with Ukraine, the central issue in the impeachment effort against the president. “I would like to be able to hear from John Bolton. What the process is to make that happen, I don’t have an answer for you,” Romney said. Bolton has yet to be subpoenaed by lawmakers in the trial, and Democrats will need four Republicans to support their efforts if they are going to call the former Trump administration officials or other witnesses. Bolton has said he would testify if subpoenaed by the Senate. Fellow GOP Sens. Susan Collins (Maine) and Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) have also both indicated an openness to hearing from further witnesses.

Trump impeachment: Half-empty spectator gallery puzzles senators - The Senate spectator gallery was at least half-empty throughout the first week of President Donald Trump’s impeachment trial and senators serving as the jury in the marathon sessions are taking notice — some stunned that there aren’t more people watching history unfold, while others understand the public avoiding the repetitive proceedings. “I’m really surprised at that because this is kind of historic and I would think this would be an opportunity for people to get in there regardless of whose side you are on,” Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.) told The Post Friday. Journalists aren’t allowed to bring cellphones or cameras into the gallery, so the noticeably small audience is known directly only to people able to access the chamber. The spectator gallery offers a view over the shoulders of senators in a surprisingly compact chamber as debate unfolds over whether Trump should be removed from office. An acquittal is all but assured, with two-thirds of votes — or at least 20 Republican defections — needed for conviction. Some Republicans said the monotonous Democratic opening arguments are to blame. “You know, 28 hours of hearing the same thing over and over again isn’t all that exciting,” said Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), who has passed the hours with crossword puzzles. Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Kan.), who underwent back surgery in August, joked: “Well, if I had a choice I’d probably be home watching Chicago PD.” He added: “No, don’t put that in there or that would make me sound terrible.”

CNN's Axelrod says impeachment didn't come up until 80 minutes into focus group - Former Obama chief strategist David Axelrod said he attended a focus group with Democratic voters in Chicago on Friday, describing the gathering as "chilling" because impeachment "didn't come up" until more than an hour into the session despite it taking place amid the Senate trial of President Trump. Axelrod, who serves as a political analyst on CNN, shared about his experience during an interview with network anchor Erin Burnett on "OutFront" on Friday night, as Democratic House impeachment managers made their final arguments in the trial before White House lawyers begin their defense of the president on Saturday. "I was in a focus group this morning for the Institute for Politics here at the University of Chicago with some Chicago Democratic voters, and it was chilling to hear them talk about this," Axelrod said. "Because impeachment didn’t come up, no one volunteered it, for 80 minutes into the focus group, and we’re right in the middle of the trial." "When it came up, they said, you know, it's terrible what he did, the case has been proven, but we know how it's going to turn out," Axelrod continued. "So we're not really that interested, we're ready to move on." "And I think that's what Mitch McConnell and the president and the White House are banking on: That they can take the hit here, buffalo their way through this and the public will move on," he said. "It's a cynical calculation, but it may not be the wrong calculation."

Graham vows Biden, Ukraine probe after impeachment trial -  Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said Friday that "someone" should investigate the Bidens and Ukraine after the impeachment trial, and pledged he will if an outside counsel doesn't step forward. "Nobody has done an investigation anywhere near like the Mueller investigation of the Bidens, and I think they should. And when this is over the Congress will do it, if we can't have an outside entity do it," Graham told reporters. Graham stressed that he would like "somebody outside of politics" to lead the investigation, but repeatedly said if that did not happen he would take the reins of a probe into former Vice President Biden, his son Hunter Biden and Ukraine. "You know why I don't want to do it? I love Joe Biden. I don't want to do this," Graham said, before adding: "I don't want it to be Lindsey Graham, because it will be hard for me, but if I have to I will do it." Republicans have seized on Hunter Biden's work for Burisma, a Ukrainian gas company, and former Vice President Joe Biden's push for the dismissal of Ukrainian Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin because of concerns he was overlooking corruption in his own office, as they have sought to defend President Trump's actions with Ukraine. There's no evidence that Joe Biden was acting with his son's interests in mind when he pushed for Shokin's dismissal, a position that reflected the views of the Obama administration and U.S. allies in Europe. The former vice president has denied doing so and the GOP claims have been debunked by fact checkers. The GOP feud with the Bidens has loomed over Trump's impeachment trial as the House managers have repeatedly mentioned them as they've presented their case during the last few days. Republicans have pointed to the decision as evidence that Hunter Biden, and potentially the former vice president, need to be called; sparking a constant round of questions for Senate Democrats.

  While Establishment Erupts Over Anti-Corruption Expert Pointing Out Biden’s Troubling Record, Progressives Say: Look at the Troubling Record - After establishment Democrats exploded over a column making the argument that former Vice President Joe Biden is too corrupt to credibly present voters an alternative to President Donald Trump in the 2020 general election, progressives presented more evidence from Biden’s past that make the case against his candidacy.A column Monday by Zephyr Teachout, a professor of law at Fordham University and supporter of the Democratic presidential bid of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), set off a firestorm for asserting Biden has a “corruption problem” and that his past makes the former vice president a “weak candidate” compared to others in the primary field.“Here’s the thing,” wrote Teachout, “nominating a candidate like Biden will make it far more difficult to defeat Trump.”Teachout detailed three major areas of concern: Biden’s prioritization of the financial industry over working Americans, his ties to the healthcare industry, and his connections to the fossil fuel industry. The potential for Trump to use Biden’s record against him in a general election, said Teachout, should not be underestimated.“Corrupt politicians always use whataboutism,” Teachout wrote. “With Biden, we are basically handing Trump a whataboutism playbook.”Cenk Uygur, the Young Turks host running for Congress in California’s 25th district, said on Twitter that the argument against Biden for corruption was an easy one to make.“Of course Biden is corrupt,” said Uygur. “He takes millions in campaign contributions and votes with his donors. It’s obvious.”Establishment Democrats and members of the media cried foul over the piece, calling it an attack and placing the blame for it at Sanders’ feet.The Hill‘s Krystal Ball replied by noting the double standard in which it is off the table for Sanders and his team to mark legitimate distinctions between the senator and other candidates while his rivals are allowed to levy unfounded attacks against him. “So the Sanders campaign isn’t allowed to point things out that are objectively true, while other campaigns are celebrated for nasty invented smears,” Ball tweeted of an attack on the campaign from New York Times columnist Paul Krugman. “Got it.”

Hunter Biden Ordered To Appear In Court Next Week For Contempt Hearing - Hunter Biden has been ordered to stand in front of an Arkansas judge next Tuedsay to explain why he shouldn't be held in contempt of court for failing to produce a laundry list of financial and personal information in his ongoing child support dispute with stripper Lunden Alexis Roberts. Roberts asked the court on Tuesday to hold Biden in contempt for failing to disclose financial information, contact information, and "a list of all companies he currently owns or in which he has an ownership interest," as well as "all companies in which he has had an ownership interest in the past five years."Also sought are a copy of Biden's 2017 and 2018 tax returns, deeds to properties he owns, and an executed copy of a financial records release Biden has been avoiding filing unless the court allows him to do so under seal."The defendant continues to act as though he has no respect for this Court, its orders, the legal process in this state, or the needs of his child for support," reads the filing, which adds "This is but another example of the defendant's unnecessary actions to frustrate prompt adjudication of this matter and increase the plaintiff's litigation costs." Circuit Court Judge Holly Meyer agreed, ordering Biden to appear in person to explain his failure to produce the requested information which was due in August, 2019.

 #MeToo provocation against Bernie Sanders organized by CNN and Elizabeth Warren - CNN and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Democrat from Massachusetts, with powerful establishment support, combined to stage a provocation this week aimed at slowing down or derailing the campaign of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders for the Democratic Party presidential nomination. Through CNN, the Massachusetts senator’s camp first alleged that Sanders told her in December 2018 a woman could not win a presidential election, an allegation Sanders strenuously refuted. At the Democratic debate on Tuesday night, CNN’s moderator acted as though the claim was an indisputable reality, leading to a post-debate encounter between Warren and Sanders, which the network just happened to record and circulate widely. This is a political stink bomb, borrowed from the #MeToo playbook, typical of American politics in its putrefaction. Unsubstantiated allegations are turned into “facts,” these “facts” become the basis for blackening reputations and damaging careers and shifting politics continuously to the right. Anyone who denies the allegations is a “sexist” who refuses “to believe women.” The Democratic establishment is fearful of Sanders, not so much for his nationalist-reformist program and populist demagogy, but for what his confused but growing support portends: the movement to the left by wide layers of the American population. The US ruling elite seems convinced, like some wretched, self-deluded potentate of old, that if it can simply stamp out the unpleasant “noise,” the rising tide of disaffection will dissipate. CNN’s operation began Monday when it posted a “bombshell” article by M.J. Lee with the headline, “Bernie Sanders told Elizabeth Warren in private 2018 meeting that a woman can’t win, sources say.” The article animatedly begins, “The stakes were high when Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren met at Warren’s apartment in Washington, DC, one evening in December 2018.” Lee continues, “The description of that meeting is based on the accounts of four people: two people Warren spoke with directly soon after the encounter, and two people familiar with the meeting.” In reality, the story is based on the account of one individual with a considerable interest in cutting into Sanders’ support, i.e., Elizabeth Warren. As the New York Times primly noted, “Ms. Warren and Mr. Sanders were the only people in the room.”

Sanders researched whether Warren could be VP and treasury secretary - Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and his presidential campaign reportedly looked into whether Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts could serve as both vice president and treasury secretary if he were elected president.  The report, published late Friday by The Intercept, says that Sanders had lawyers research whether or not an individual could serve two roles within the administration. Three people close to the Sanders campaign told The Intercept that the individual was his 2020 rival, Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts.  Per The Intercept, the sources, who said the campaign had not finalized any decisions for Sanders' potential cabinet, determined that there were no Constitutional barriers that would prevent a vice president from serving as treasury secretary.   The report comes amid the current ongoing public war of wordsbetween the Sanders and Warren campaigns over accusations Sanders told Warren at a closed-door meeting in 2018.  While sources, described by CNN as "two people Warren spoke with directly soon after the encounter, and two people familiar with the meeting," have said Sanders said a woman could not beat President Donald Trump at the polls, Sanders has denied the accusations. Sanders said he told Warren the president was "a sexist, a racist, and a liar who would weaponize whatever he could," but never said that a woman could not win. Per The Intercept, the Warren campaign has denied that it was behind leaking the story that has led to the controversy.

Bloomberg Journo Fabricates Bernie Sanders Quote About Buttigieg Having a Gay Problem -  In the latest example of MSM hackery, Bloomberg reporter Emma Kinery took it upon herself to fabricate a quote from Bernie Sanders (I-VA) to suggest that 2020 candidate Pete Buttigieg has a 'gay' problem.  During an interview with New Hampshire Public Radio, Sanders was asked if gender is "still an obstacle for female politicians," to which he replied: "yes, but I think everybody has their own set of problems. I'm 78 years of age, that's a problem ... If you're looking at Buttigieg, he's a young guy."   Except, Kinery - in a now-deleted tweet, quoted Sanders as saying: "Buttigieg is young and Buttigieg is gay."  Here’s the video. Watch the video and compare it to @EmmaKinery’s “transcript,” and tell me this isn’t a Bloomberg reporter spreading fake news. pic.twitter.com/bPZSjh69sU With no explanation or apology, Kinery deleted her tweet and re-tweeted a verbatim transcript: Full verbatim of Bernie Sanders’s NHPR interview responses on electability: pic.twitter.com/SqkKVXl90v — Emma Kinery (@EmmaKinery) January 19, 2020

How five members of Joe Biden’s family got rich through his connections  Political figures have long used their families to route power and benefits for their own self-enrichment. In my new book, “Profiles in Corruption: Abuse of Power by America’s Progressive Elite,” one particular politician — Joe Biden — emerges as the king of the sweetheart deal, with no less than five family members benefiting from his largesse, favorable access and powerful position for commercial gain. In Biden’s case, these deals include foreign partners and, in some cases, even US taxpayer dollars.The Biden family’s apparent self-enrichment involves five family members: Joe’s son Hunter, son-in-law Howard, brothers James and Frank, and sister Valerie.When this subject came up in 2019, Biden declared, “I never talked with my son or my brother or anyone else — even distant family — about their business interests. Period.” As we will see, this is far from the case …

 Tulsi Gabbard Sues Hillary Clinton Over 'Russian Asset' Remark -Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) has filed a lawsuit against Hillary Clinton, accusing the former Secretary of State of defamation for remarks characterizing the Democratic presidential candidate as a Russian asset. Filed on Wednesday in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York, Gabbard's attorneys allege that Clinton "smeared" Gabbard's "political and personal reputation," according to The Hill.Tulsi Gabbard is suing Hillary Clinton and the first page of the filing is WILD AF pic.twitter.com/DXHLPfy016  — Alec Sears (@alec_sears) January 22, 2020 "Tulsi Gabbard is a loyal American civil servant who has also dedicated her life to protecting the safety of all Americans," said Gabbard's attorney Brian Dunne in a statement."Rep. Gabbard’s presidential campaign continues to gain momentum, but she has seen her political and personal reputation smeared and her candidacy intentionally damaged by Clinton’s malicious and demonstrably false remarks."In a podcast released in October, Clinton said she thought Republicans were "grooming" a Democratic presidential candidate for a third-party bid. She also described the candidate as a favorite of the Russians.Clinton did not name the candidate but it was clear she was speaking about Gabbard."They're also going to do third party. I'm not making any predictions, but I think they've got their eye on someb ody who's currently in the Democratic primary and are grooming her to be the third-party candidate," Clinton said.

Agencies to propose 'covered funds' revamp in Volcker Rule — The Federal Reserve Board and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. will meet next week to consider a proposal to simplify the “covered funds” portion of the Volcker Rule. Regulators in August finalized a rollback of the proprietary trading ban section of the rule, which was mandated by the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act and first proposed by former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker. But banks have long complained that the rule’s other key provision — restricting their stakes in private equity and hedge funds in order to curb risk from short-term bets — is too broad. The industry argues the original 2013 regulation covers some investment activities that lawmakers did not mean to prohibit. The financial regulatory agencies, including the Fed and FDIC, signaled over the summer that they would address the covered funds portion in a subsequent rule. Paul Volcker Regulators in August finalized a rollback of the proprietary trading ban section of the rule, which was mandated by the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act and first proposed by former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker. Bloomberg News The Fed and FDIC boards will both meet in public on Jan. 30 to discuss the proposal. The other agencies charged with implementing the Volcker Rule are the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and Securities and Exchange Commission. Fed Vice Chair of Supervision Randal Quarles said in a 2018 speech that the covered funds definition should be “as simple and clear as possible.” “It should not be a guessing game or require hours of legal analysis of complex banking and securities regulations to determine if a particular entity is a covered fund,” he said.

Will Fed's simpler capital regime be ready before next stress tests? — Despite the Federal Reserve’s goal of finalizing a new simplified capital buffer for large banks in time for their upcoming 2020 stress tests, some industry professionals say its completion may be pushed back to the next round of testing. The Fed proposed the "stress capital buffer" in April 2018 to streamline its stress test program. Each bank subject to the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review would have to meet a unique benchmark, based on its performance, of how much capital to hold in the following year to combat potential market stress. The Fed is still aiming to complete the rule in time for the upcoming stress test cycle in April, but onlookers say meeting that goal will be increasingly difficult as the date approaches, especially if they include material changes to the buffer in the final rule. “There are still questions that are up in the air in terms of what policy direction the Fed wants to go on certain specific elements," said Jeremy Newell, a partner at Covington & Burling. Newell added that if there is a "large magnitude of change" from the original proposal, "you would certainly expect the Fed would go through a pretty robust notice and comment process before they finalize it and put it in place.” Fed Vice Chairman for Supervision Randal Quarles has suggested that the Fed board is weighing a number of changes, some of which could require separate proposals and more not In a speech in September, Quarles signaled that the central bank may revise how the proposal dealt with the funding of dividends. He laid out two potential options for the Fed to choose: raising the minimum SCB level set for all banks above the proposed 250-basis-point threshold, or raising the Fed's countercyclical capital buffer above zero "in normal times." The CCyB is a separate benchmark designed to build banks' defenses when risk starts accumulating in the financial system. Quarles also questioned the proposal's use of an unweighted leverage ratio as a component in measuring the SCB. “Let me say that it is my hope to have an SCB framework in place for the 2020 stress tests,” he said in September. “Of course, we will solicit public comment on potential revisions to the SCB proposal through the standard rulemaking process, and I expect that to occur in the near future.”

Fed's Quarles details his ideal approach to bank supervision — Federal Reserve Vice Chairman for Supervision Randal Quarles laid out a comprehensive set of proposals to update how the agency supervises the nation’s banks on an ongoing basis, with the overall goal of bringing more transparency to the existing regime. “I don’t believe the Federal Reserve has communicated as clearly as it could with the banks we supervise,” Quarles said at an event Friday held by the American Bar Association. “More transparency and more clarity about what we want to achieve as supervisors and how we approach our work will improve supervision.” Unlike regulation, he said, bank supervision is usually confidential and tailored to a specific institution, yet at the same time, there is a “public interest in in all governmental processes being fair, predictable, efficient and accountable.” To this end, Quarles outlined several ideas to make overall improvements to the supervisory process, strengthen transparency and bolster large-bank supervision specifically. Quarles said the Fed should align its supervisory work with the tailoring rules that the Fed finalized last year, which placed banks into different risk-based categories. The Fed manages large-bank supervision through a coordinating committee that currently includes oversight of three categories of banks defined by the tailoring rules: Category I, II and III firms. Quarles recommended that the Fed make it so that the Large Institution Supervision Coordinating Committee portfolio includes just Category I firms. The Fed will also continue to offer more insight into its Comprehensive Capital Analysis Review stress testing process, said Quarles. Last year, the Fed published information on some of the models it uses to evaluate the safety and soundness of the banks it supervises. “We also continue to consider ways to increase the transparency around the scenarios we use in CCAR, including, for example, by modifying our scenario design policy statement to provide greater transparency on the design of the global market shock component of the stress tests,” said Quarles. The Fed is also weighing a number of options to scale back on the year-to-year volatility of stress test requirements, he said. “We are considering a number of options, such as averaging outcomes over multiple years or averaging the results of the current year’s stress test with the results of one or more previous years,” said Quarles. “Again, the goal here is not to make the tests less strenuous but to give banks a greater opportunity to plan for them and to meet our expectations ex ante rather than through an ex post remedial process.” And, as part of the stress capital buffer, Quarles expects that the Fed will provide banks with “significantly more time” to review the results of their stress tests and commensurate capital requirements before they are required to submit their final capital plans.

NCUA's capital proposal could irk banks and credit unions alike - Get ready for fireworks. The National Credit Union Administration board plans to address two hot-button issues at its regular monthly meeting Thursday: bank acquisitions and subordinated debt. The NCUA won’t release details of any proposed rules until Thursday morning, but both issues are already pain points for banks. An effort to sketch out ground rules for buying banks comes amid an uptick in the number of such deals, along with an increase in bankers’ frustration. Credit unions agreed to buy 16 banks last year, easily surpassing the 2018 total. Earlier this month, though, Colorado banking regulators blocked a bid by Elevations Credit Union in Boulder to buy the assets of the $115 million-asset Cache Bank and Trust in Greeley. Banker opposition to credit unions’ use of alternative capital is more deep-seated. The NCUA published an advance notice of proposed rulemaking on alternative capital in January 2017. The document, which identified subordinated debt as the only acceptable form of alternative capital for the industry, generated hundreds of comment letters, including highly critical responses from the American Bankers Association and Independent Community Bankers of America. Interestingly, Geoff Bacino, a former NCUA board member, is predicting credit unions may be disappointed with what the NCUA unveils. In a newsletter article Wednesday, Bacino suggested that “limitations and requirements in the proposal may serve to severely reduce the number of credit unions eligible to use subordinated debt.” Currently, only credit unions with a low-income designation are eligible to use subordinated debt as a capital tool. There were just over 2,600 credit unions with a low-income classification at the end of the third quarter, the most recent data available, constituting about half of all federally insured credit unions. The NCUA has pledged to put some type of capital option in place for credit unions impacted by its planned risk-based capital rule. The board voted last month to delay the start of that rule until January 2022. Even if the board puts forth a subordinated debt proposal with significant limitations, bankers are unlikely to be satisfied, said Keith Leggett, a retired American Bankers Association economist who regularly blogs about credit unions. “They view it as the camel’s nose under the tent,” Leggett said. Bankers fear a successful experience with subordinated debt by even a handful of large institutions could give the credit union industry ammunition to make a case for wider usage and perhaps even counting debt as Tier 1 capital for regulatory purposes. Officials at the American Bankers Association expressed skepticism that a proposed subordinated debt rule would be limited, adding that any access to alternative capital would serve to spur growth at the expense of other financial institutions.

Warren presses big-bank CEOs on climate change policies — Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Masschusetts is seeking details from the eight U.S.-based global systemically important banks on their plans to address the risk climate change poses to financial institutions. “The climate crisis demands that banks accurately estimate and mitigate risks to social and economic stability; it also presents mutually beneficial investment opportunities, particularly in climate-resilient urban infrastructure,” Warren, a leading candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination, said in a letter Tuesday. It was addressed to the CEOs of JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Bank of New York Mellon, Morgan Stanley and State Street. Warren asked that the banks respond to several questions by Feb. 7, including whether they “formally assess the system risks that climate change” could pose to assets and investments, whether they support the Federal Reserve's running stress tests to measure how financial institutions would cope with climate-related financial risks and how the Climate Change Financial Risk Act of 2019 would affect each of the banks’ businesses. That bill — which was introduced by Sen. Brian Schatz, D-Hawaii, and co-sponsored by Warren — would instruct the Fed to form an advisory group of climate scientists and climate economists to help develop climate-change scenarios for the financial stress tests. In her letters to the eight banks, Warren cited the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco’s November conference on the economics of climate change and a series of papers the bank published in October warning about the negative economic effects of climate change, especially on lower-income communities. One of those papers the San Francisco Fed published also warned about continuing flood risks and decried the lack of any methods to accurately assess up-to-date flood risks to inform lending practices. “While some central banks around the world are taking action to confront climate-related risks to the global financial system, U.S. regulators continue to ignore the risks, despite the San Francisco Fed's groundbreaking work,” Warren wrote.

Here’s Why the New York Fed Doesn’t Want You to See a Photo of Its Wall Street-Esque Trading Floor --Pam Martens  --The New York Fed is so protective of its surreptitious trading relationship with Wall Street that it previously denied Wall Street On Parade a photo of its trading floor. It is, by the way, the only one of the 12 regional Federal Reserve banks to have a trading floor.The New York Fed has been allowed by Congress to insert itself so deeply in markets that it’s highly possible that history will find it at least partly responsible for the next market implosion.The well-promulgated notion that the Federal Reserve began heavily meddling in the repo loan market on September 17 of last year is a piece of fiction. According to the U.S. government’s own database, residing at the Office of Financial Research (OFR), from 2014 through December 31, 2017, the New York Fed was engaged in repo transactions with U.S. Money Market Funds with $200 to $400 billion changing hands on pivotal days.  Because a Money Market Fund could make a very large transaction with the New York Fed without concern about a default by a dozen other Wall Street bank counterparties among whom it might have otherwise attempted to spread its risk, the New York Fed became the Reverse Repo loan counterparty of choice, rapidly dominating the market.  In a November 18, 2016 article by Bradley Keoun at TheStreet.com, Josh Galper, a repo-expert at Finadium, was quoted as follows regarding the Fed: “They’ve become a very large player in a very short period of time, and that creates a market distortion that I view as undesired. It crowds out private-sector players and it distorts pricing.”The New York Fed not only crowded out other counterparties but they also crowded out other forms of repo collateral according to OFR data. The repo collateral at Money Market Funds went from 33 percent U.S. Treasuries on January 31, 2011 to 63 percent on August 31, 2019 according to OFR data, making obligations of Wall Street and foreign banks less and less desirable.The New York Fed effectively created a new market of one-stop shopping for all your Treasury needs for time-constrained and harried Money Market Fund managers. TheStreet.com article provided this quote from Debbie Cunningham, Chief Investment Officer for Global Money Markets at the large mutual fund company, Federated Investors: “The Fed’s program is very easy. It takes a lot of work otherwise to call 40 other counterparties.”

Ex-Wells Fargo CEO banned from banking, must pay $17.5M fine for role in fake-accounts scandal - The former CEO of Wells Fargo, who presided over the bank while it opened millions of potentially fake accounts, can never work for a bank again and must pay a $17.5 million fine for his role in the scandal.John Stumpf, who was ousted as CEO in October 2016, agreed to the resolution in a federal case brought by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. He had initially defended himself before a Congressional committee, telling the panel in September 2016 that "there was no orchestrated effort or scheme" to "provide products and services to customers they did not want or need."The OCC also announced charges against five other former senior executives of Wells Fargo and announced settlements with two others in a sweeping case covering alleged misconduct from the early 2000s through October 2016. Wells Fargo representatives did not immediately respond to a request seeking comment Thursday.

OCC drops hammer on Stumpf, seven other ex-Wells Fargo execs Federal regulators on Thursday announced settlements with three former top executives at Wells Fargo, including onetime Chairman and CEO John Stumpf, as well as civil charges against five other high-level ex-officials at the scandal-plagued bank. Stumpf, who resigned in October 2016 following revelations that bank employees opened millions of potentially unauthorized customer accounts, agreed to pay a $17.5 million penalty, according to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which announced the charges. Stumpf also agreed to a ban from the banking industry. Carrie Tolstedt, who headed Wells Fargo’s community bank, is facing civil charges that the OCC hopes will result in a $25 million civil money penalty and a ban from the banking industry. Tolstedt can request a hearing challenging the allegations, as can other individuals who did not reach settlements. The OCC alleges that Tolstedt and the four other individuals who face civil charges failed to adequately perform their duties, which contributed to sales misconduct dating back all the way to 2002.  John Stumpf resigned as Wells Fargo's chairman and CEO in October 2016, shortly after the sales-practices scandal came to light. Tolstedt’s lawyer, Enu Mainigi of Williams & Connolly, said in an email Thursday that a full and fair examination of the facts will vindicate her client. . Wells has previously announced clawbacks totaling $69 million from Stumpf and $67 million from Tolstedt.

 Bank of America CEO says clients want to invest in companies ‘doing right by society’  - Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan says money will keep flowing to environment, social and governance funds (ESG) as more investors send the message that they want to own companies with a mission that aligns profits with broader social goals. “We have $25 billion in ESG funds, and more is going there,” Moynihan said on ” from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. The bank’s wealth management business has a total of $3 trillion in investor assets. “All investors are saying, ‘I want you to invest in companies doing right by society.’” Assets in ESG mutual funds and ETFs reached a record level in 2019, according to Morningstar, with more than $20 billion invested, four times the level of 2018, which had been the previous record. Last week the CEO of the world’s largest money manager, BlackRock, issued an annual letter saying that climate change will lead to a fundamental reshaping of finance the likes of which the world has never seen, and a significant reallocation of capital is set to take place “sooner than most anticipate.” BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said: “Climate change has become a defining factor in companies’ long-term prospects.” He added, “Climate change is almost invariably the top issue that clients around the world raise with BlackRock. From Europe to Australia, South America to China, Florida to Oregon, investors are asking how they should modify their portfolios.” BlackRock announced broad changes to its investment strategies aligned with ESG. Bank of America has committed $300 billion to sustainable investments over the next decade. Since 2007, when the company issued its first Environmental Business Initiative, Bank of America has deployed more than $126 billion to environmental business efforts.

Goldman to Refuse IPOs If All Directors Are White, Straight Men - The era of the white, all-male board is coming to an end. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Executive Officer David Solomon issued the latest ultimatum Thursday from Davos. Wall Street's biggest underwriter of initial public offerings in the U.S. will no longer take a company public in the U.S. and Europe if it lacks a director who is either female or diverse. Asia is not yet included in the firm’s new policy. The mandate is the latest in a series of signals that non-diverse boards and management are unacceptable. BlackRock Inc. and State Street Global Advisors are voting against directors at companies without a female director. Public companies with all-male boards based in California now face a $100,000 fine under a new state law. “It’s what big investors are looking for these days,” said Fred Foulkes, a management professor at the Boston University Questrom School of Business. “If the board has all white males, that’s a big negative.” Goldman Sachs acknowledged that “diversity” has other meanings around the world — including in Asia, where racial dynamics are different and gender disparities are sometimes even more glaring. The company said in a statement Friday that it intends to eventually expand its board-diversity mandate beyond the U.S. and Europe. The corporate board has become a rare bright spot for gender and racial diversity at the highest echelons of corporate America. Almost half of the open spots at S&P 500 companies went to women last year, and for the first time they made up more than a quarter of all directors. In July, the last all-male board in the S&P 500 appointed a woman. Still, new boards are less diverse: Among the top 25 IPOs by value each year from 2014 through 2018, 10 companies had no female directors, said Malli Gero, co-founder and senior adviser to 2020 Women on Boards, an organization that pushes for the Russell 3000 index to have at least 20% women directors on its boards. Last year, Goldman Sachs was hired to underwrite WeWork’s IPO, which only added a female director after its initial prospectus prompted criticism of its all-male board.

Detroit man suing bank for refusing to cash check from racial discrimination suit -- A Detroit man is suing a Michigan bank for refusing to cash a settlement check awarded to him in a racial discrimination lawsuit, according to a report. Sauntore Thomas, 44, claims TCF Bank employees refused to cash or deposit his settlement check on Tuesday at a branch in Livonia, leading cops to respond and a fraud investigation to be launched, the Detroit Free Press reports. “I didn’t deserve treatment like that when I knew that the check was not fraudulent,” Thomas told the newspaper. “I’m a United States veteran. I have an honorable discharge from the Air Force. They discriminated against me because I’m black. None of this would have happened if I were white.” Thomas, who had an account at the bank for nearly two years, sued TCF Bank on Wednesday, alleging racial discrimination by the bank for calling police, prompting four cops to respond to the branch, the newspaper reports. Thomas declined to indicate the amount of the settlement check, saying it’s part of a confidential agreement in a federal lawsuit against his former employer, Enterprise Leasing Company of Detroit. The vet even called his employment law attorney while at the bank for help explaining to bank employees that the check was authentic. “I got on the phone with the bank,” attorney Deborah Gordon told the newspaper. “I sent them my federal court complaint, to see that it matched. I did everything.” Thomas was denied due to his race, Gordon said.

Discover Crashes Most Since The Financial Crisis On Highest Q4 Charge-off Rate This Decade - One of America's most popular credit card companies, Discover, is having a bad day. In fact, dropping as much as 11% today after announcing Q4 earnings, DFS has suffered its biggest one day drop since the financial crisis, even greater than the 9% drop recorded on the day the US was downgraded in August 2011. What was behind this tremendous drop? After all, Discover not only did not miss earnings, it reports Q4 EPS of $2.25 that beat Wall Street consensus estimates of 2.24 and were above the 2.03 EPS reported a year ago. No, the reason for the plunge was not to be found on the income statement, but rather the balance sheet, where Discover reported that its Q4 credit card net principal charge off rate had unexpectedly jumped from 3.32% in Q3 to 3.41% in Q4, and 18bps higher than Q4 2018. In fact, as shown in the chart below, while not quite the highest charge off rate (which follows a seasonal pattern) in the past decade, this was the highest Q4 charge off going back all the way to financial crisis (specifically 2011 when the company's charge off rate plunged from over 5% to the high 2%s).  And while the sellside was quick to pointsout what was painfully obvious in retrospect, and rushed to downgrade the stock after the fact, as follows...

• Evercore ISI analyst John Pancari cut the recommendation on Discover Financial Services to underperform from inline.  PT set to $75, implies a 13% decrease from last price. Discover Financial average PT is $92.89. Targets range from $75 to $105
• Piper Sandler cut the recommendation on Discover Financial Services to neutral from overweight. PT set to $86, implies a 0.2% increase from last price. Discover Financial average PT is $90.63. Targets range from $75 to $105

Tesla Now Valued More Than World's Largest Automaker After Volkswagen-Like Short Squeeze - In a delightful turn of irony, the relentless short squeeze that has gripped Tesla shares ever since the Fed launched QE4 in October, a squeeze many have compared to the infamous Volkswagen short squeeze of 2008, sent TSLA shares another 5% higher in the process pushing the electric vehicle maker's market cap above $100 billion for the first time ever, $103BN to be precise, rising above the world's largest automaker Volkswagen (at $100BN), bigger than Toyota. It is now also bigger than GM ($50BN) and BMW ($51BN) combined, and is almost 3 times bigger than Ford ($36.5BN). The record milestone came less than a month after Tesla''s stock crossed the infamous "funding secured" bogey of $420, the fake LBO price tweeted by Musk in 2018 which put got in much trouble for securities fraud, and which cost Musk his position as Tesla Chairman More importantly, by surpassing a $100BN market cap, a record-breaking $346MM pay package for Elon Musk is now triggered. However, according to the fine print, the $100 billion valuation must stay for both one-month and six-month average in order to help Musk get the first of 12 tranches of this massive payout.

 Hedge Fund CIO: Once All Investing Becomes Passive, Then The Information Contained In Market Prices Will Be Meaningless - “I look at historical relationships that appear to no longer operate as before,” said the investor. “I look at measures of valuation that are stretched to levels rarely seen,” he continued. "I look at corporate share buybacks as the only meaningful inflow. I look at outflows from retail investors and the flags that this raises." "Then I look at the fact that global interest rates have never been negative like this. I look at the working population and it has never before aged and shrunk like this." "And I look at the world and just don’t know how anyone can be certain of anything." * * * Anecdote: "Start with what we know for sure,” said Big Foot, creeping quietly through global markets, trackers desperate to front-run his every step. "If 100% of all investing is passive, then the information contained in market prices is meaningless,” continued the CEO of one of the industry’s largest investment firms. In 2009, assets in actively-managed mutual funds were 3x those of index-based funds/ETFs. In August 2019, US index-based fund/ETF assets surpassed actively managed assets. That trend continues. With each incremental dollar that moves from active to passive management, roughly five more cents flow into equities (active managers hold 5% cash buffers while passive funds generally do not). "We also know that if 100% of equity is taken private, then public markets would cease to exist." The average institutional portfolio holds a 25% allocation in alternative investments. Of that allocation, private equity investments have surged to 25% of the assets, up from 18% in 2018. Private equity funds have $1.5trln in dry powder that will fail to pay fees unless their managers buy equity, which continues to appreciate. US equity market capitalization is $35tlrn, a record 1.55x America’s $22.3trln annual GDP. “But what we do not know for sure is whether there comes a point well before 100% of all investing is done passively, or before all public equity is taken private, that the market price becomes meaningless,” said Big Foot. 

OCC’s Otting punches back at critics of CRA plan — Comptroller of the Currency Joseph Otting stood firm in defense of his agency's proposal to modernize the Community Reinvestment Act, calling out critics of the plan who he said do not have their facts straight. "I have no problem with people challenging this. This is a complicated, emotional issue," Otting said of the CRA plan unveiled last month by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. "I just want people to operate from a point of facts. And then if you want to criticize the proposal, don't only criticize it but tell us how you would make it better." In wide-ranging remarks to reporters, Otting took issue with recent views expressed by Federal Reserve Gov. Lael Brainard as well as some community groups, on issues ranging from how a modernized CRA framework would measure compliance to how the regulatory agencies are using data in the reform process. The Fed notably balked at supporting the OCC and FDIC's plan. Otting also affirmed the commitment of the OCC and the FDIC to a 60-day comment period, defying calls by Democratic lawmakers and community groups to double the time to 120 days. When asked whether he sees the possibility of a later comment deadline, Otting said, "I don't." He noted that the OCC has projected potential changes to the CRA implementation framework while developing the proposal for over a year. “We have been working for 18 months on this,” Otting said. “And so I think it's plenty of time. We're happy to sit down with anybody that wants to come in if they don't understand parts of the proposal." The comment period was already effectively extended, Otting said, due to the lag time between when the plan was released in December and when it was published in the Federal Register. With the comment period now set to end on March 9, Otting said the total comment period will be 88 days. Whatever CRA reform plan is finalized will have far-reaching implications for how banks are graded under the 1977 law, which has not been substantively modified since the 1990s.

4 questions as CFPB closes in on revamp of key mortgage rule — The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's willingness to extend a special regulatory exemption for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is welcome news for the mortgage market. But the agency is also signaling longer-term changes to its underwriting rule that will affect all mortgage lenders. CFPB Director Kathy Kraninger told Congress in a recent letter that Fannie and Freddie will prolong the “qualified mortgage” patch beyond its expiration in January 2021. The agency had already indicated in July that it was planning a soft landing to eliminate the patch. But she also confirmed that the bureau is planning to replace the 43% debt-to-income limit for QM loans based on industry comment letters. Kraninger's letter sends an early message to Wall Street that there is time to prepare for a smooth transition to a truly competitive mortgage market. "The Bureau has decided to propose an amendment to the Rule which would move away from DTI and instead include an alternative," Kraninger wrote. "The proposed alternative would be intended to better ensure that responsible, affordable mortgage credit remains available to consumers." Here are four key questions about the future of the patch and the QM rule.

• Is the CFPB preserving the QM patch? The short answer is: no. This is just a short-term extension. But drilling down deeper, the answer is more complicated.
• What does Kraninger’s letter mean for the long-term future of the QM rule? Kraninger told lawmakers that the CFPB intended to phase out using DTI ratios to evaluate a borrower’s ability to repay a loan. She said the agency will likely propose a rule to replace the DTI limit with some sort of an alternative metric to assess creditworthiness. Kraninger said that the alternative metric could be a pricing threshold — the difference between the loan’s annual percentage rate and the average prime offer rate.
• Why is the CFPB telling Congress now that it will delay the end of the patch? Kraninger is signaling a year ahead of the elimination of the patch that lenders need time to start preparing. Mark Calabria, the director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, has stated that a core reason for eliminating the patch is to transition or jump-start the private market to originate standard QM or non-QM loans without government backing.
• How would an alternative QM metric affect the GSE-backed market? Because nearly a third of GSE-backed loans currently enjoy the benefits of the QM exemption, ending the patch without adjusting the current methods used to evaluate a borrower’s ability to repay could constrain Fannie and Freddie’s business. But replacing DTI with an alternative metric and incorporating a seasoning framework would likely preserve mortgage credit availability and ease the transition away from the patch,

My comment to HUD on affordable housing. Kevin Erdmann - Today, the Mercatus Center posted my response to HUD's request for public comments on how to achieve more affordable housing.  Here is the closing paragraph: There are certainly many areas where regulatory barriers to building need to be eliminated in order to keep housing affordable throughout the United States. That should certainly be the priority of government at all levels. Yet today there are many areas in this country where those barriers aren’t the binding constraint that is blocking supply and pushing up rents. Those cities do lack adequate supply today, but it is because they lack suppliers. They lack potential home buyers. Potential home buyers frequently need mortgages. The most direct and immediate boost to housing supply that HUD could create today would be to increase suppliers, to broaden the availability of mortgages to households that have been locked out in one way or another from today’s market. Trends in prices, building, and borrowing suggest that many of those potential buyers would buy more affordable and more modest homes than the homes that are bought by buyers who can qualify today. The most important task for HUD today is to figure out what is preventing the construction of homes that would sell for less than $200,000. The answer to that puzzle is surely a bit counterintuitive, because it is clear that more broad-based lending and more residential investment will be required for that to happen. The families that would use that funding, for the most part, aren’t living under a bridge or in a car today. They are stacked into the existing housing stock, where they frequently spend much more on rent than they would need to spend on a mortgage to buy that very same house. Spending less on rent must begin with spending more on residential investment. Here is the comment on the same question from my Mercatus colleagues, Salim Furth and Emily Hamilton.

Black Knight's First Look: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in December - From Black Knight: Black Knight’s First Look: Strong Close to 2019 Pushes Mortgage Delinquency Rate to Near Record Low -
• Mortgage delinquencies fell by nearly 4% month-over-month to within 0.04% of the record low set in May 2019 and more than 12% below last year’s level
• The national foreclosure rate fell again in December to reach a new 14-year low, and the lowest on record outside the final five months of 2005
• 2019 ended with just over two million borrowers past due on their mortgage (including active foreclosures) – down 236,000 from the same time last year and the lowest year-end volume since the turn of the century
• After falling by 19% in November, prepayment rates ticked upward in December, suggesting that the recent leveling off of interest rates has had a flattening effect on refinance activity.
According to Black Knight's First Look report for December, the percent of loans delinquent decreased in December compared to November, and decreased 12.4% year-over-year.  The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased 1.6% in December and were down 11.6% over the last year. Black Knight reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) was 3.40% in December, down from 3.53% in November. The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased to 0.46% from 0.47% in November.

 MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey  From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey: Mortgage applications decreased 1.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 17, 2020. ... The Refinance Index decreased 2 percent from the previous week and was 116 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 4 percent compared with the previous week and was 8 percent higher than the same week one year ago. ... “Mortgage applications dipped slightly last week after two weeks of healthy increases, but even with a slight decline, the total pace of applications remains at an elevated level. The purchase market has started 2020 on a strong note, running 8 percent higher than the same week a year ago,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Refinance applications remained near the highest level since October 2019, as the 30-year fixed rate was unchanged at 3.87 percent, while the 15-year fixed rate decreased to its lowest level since November 2016. Even with more positive developments surrounding the U.S. and China trade negotiations and healthy retail sales data, investors seemed cautious and maintained their demand for safer U.S. Treasuries, which kept yields lower. Our expectation is that rates will stay along this same narrow range.” The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($510,400 or less) remained unchanged at 3.87 percent, with points decreasing to 0.27 from 0.32 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

FHFA House Price Index: Up 0.2% in October - The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for November. Here is the opening of the report: – U.S. house prices rose in November, up 0.2 percent from the previous month, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI). House prices rose 4.9 percent from November 2018 to November 2019. The previously reported 0.2 percent increase for October 2019 was revised upward to 0.4 percent. [Read more] The chart below illustrates the monthly HPI series, which is not adjusted for inflation, along with a real (inflation-adjusted) series using the Consumer Price Index: All Items Less Shelter.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 5.54 million in December -From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Climb 3.6% in December: Existing-home sales grew in December, bouncing back after a slight fall in November, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Although the Midwest saw sales decline, the other three major U.S. regions reported meaningful growth last month. Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 3.6% from November to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.54 million in December. Additionally, overall sales took a significant bounce, up 10.8% from a year ago (5.00 million in December 2019).  Total housing inventory at the end of December totaled 1.40 million units, down 14.6% from November and 8.5% from one year ago (1.53 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.0-month supply at the current sales pace, down from the 3.7-month figure recorded in both November and December 2018. Unsold inventory totals have dropped for seven consecutive months from year-ago levels, taking a toll on home sales.This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993. Sales in December (5.54 million SAAR) were up 3.6% from last month, and were 10.8% above the December 2018 sales rate. The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes. Existing Home InventoryAccording to the NAR, inventory decreased to 1.40 million in December from 1.64 million in November. Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer. The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory. Year-over-year Inventory Inventory was down 8.5% year-over-year in December compared to December 2018. Months of supply decreased to 3.0 months in December. This was higher than the consensus forecast. For existing home sales, a key number is inventory - and inventory is at record lows.

 US Existing Home Sales Soar Near Fastest Rate In Two Years Amid Dire Housing Shortage - After tumbling to the lowest level since June, December existing home sales soared to their highest SAAR since Feb 2018 Existing home sales roise 3.6% MoM in December (rebounding from the 1.7% drop in November and well above the 1.5% jump expected). At 5.54mm SAAR, this is the highest in almost 2 years. The median sales price climbed 7.8% from a year earlier, the most since January 2016, to $274,500 as inventories declined for a seventh-straight month. Total housing inventory at the end of December totaled 1.40 million units, down 14.6% from November and 8.5% from one year ago (1.53 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.0-month supply at the current sales pace, down from the 3.7-month figure recorded in both November and December 2018. Unsold inventory totals have dropped for seven consecutive months from year-ago levels, taking a toll on home sales. “America is facing a dire housing shortage condition,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said at a briefing in Washington. “We need to build more.” Looking across 2019, existing-home sales grew at a 5.34 million pace, the same as 2018. Three of four major regions saw gains from the prior month, led by a 5.7% rise in the Northeast. The Midwest posted a modest decline. First-time buyers made up 31% of sales, down slightly from 32% the previous month. As CNBC's Diana Olick noted, soaring prices are creating fears that eventually, buyers will be "choked out of the market." 

Comments on December Existing Home Sales – McBride- Earlier: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 5.54 million in December - A few key points:
1) Existing home sales were up 10.8% year-over-year (YoY) in December. This was the sixth consecutive month with a YoY increase - following 16 consecutive months with a YoY decrease in sales.
2) Inventory is very low, and was down 8.5% year-over-year (YoY) in December.   Inventory always decreases sharply in December as people take their homes off the market for the holidays.   However, based on the data I've collected, this was the lowest level for inventory in at least three decades (the previous low was 1.43 million in December 1993).
3) Sales slumped at the end of 2018 and in January 2019 due to higher mortgage rates, the stock market selloff, and fears of an economic slowdown.
Then sales picked up in the second half of 2019 as interest rates declined. Existing home sales in 2019 (5.344 million) finished the year essentially unchanged from 2018 (5.343 million). The second graph shows existing home sales Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).Sales NSA in December (434,000, red column) were the highest for December since 2016. Overall this was a solid report.   The very low level of inventory will be something to watch in 2020.

Housing: Part 360 - New Homes vs. Existing Homes-  Kevin Erdmann - When the federal government made it effectively illegal to originate mortgages to many families after the financial crisis, the effect of that development was clear in the prices of homes.  Low tier home prices collapsed and sales of new homes at low prices collapsed.  The combination of those effects meant that the median price of new homes moved much higher than the price of existing homes.  The median new home has long had a price about 30% or 40% higher than the median existing home, and that ratio was slowly declining during the housing "bubble" because the "bubble" was mostly facilitating the construction of more affordable homes and the mass migration of Americans out of the expensive, housing-deprived cities.  New homes were being built, mostly, where they could be built, and that means they were built where they were cheaper. When the feds quashed that process with draconian new lending regulations, the median price of new homes shot up to about 70% more than the price of existing homes.  For the past several years, that has been moderating.  Some of that moderation has been because low tier home prices have done some catching up over the last few years.  Some of it might have been due to some recovery in building, but sales of homes under $200,000 is still sitting near cycle lows. So, I don't think the decline in the median price of new homes is due to a compositional shift back toward entry level units.  It must be due to a pullback in buying among the existing, "qualified" buyers with high incomes.  The same basic group of buyers are buying the same number of units that they were a couple of years ago, but at slightly lower prices.  Maybe the intrinsic value of homes was knocked down a bit by the 2017 tax bill.  I would say that is a bearish development, even though homebuilding has such pent up demand that it's tough to be too bearish.  On the other hand, we just had this blowout number in housing starts for December.  Housing will be interesting to watch this year.

AIA: "Architecture Billings Index Ends Year on Positive Note" - Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Architecture Billings Index Ends Year on Positive Note:  Demand for design services in December increased for the third month in a row, according to a new report today from The American Institute of Architects (AIA). AIA’s Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score of 52.5 for December reflects an increase in design services provided by U.S. architecture firms (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). During December, both the new project inquiries and design contracts scores were positive, posting scores of 58.7 and 53.4 respectively.“Despite the ongoing slowdown in billings in the Northeast, balanced growth across sectors and regions looks more positive for the coming year,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “Factors outside of the construction sector, such as trade policy and international events, could still impact demand for design services, however recent fears about a downturn in construction activity have largely subsided.”
• Regional averages: West (54.0); South (52.2); Midwest (51.9); Northeast (44.0)
• Sector index breakdown: commercial/industrial (54.0); multi-family residential (51.0); mixed practice (50.8); institutional (50.8)

 Are Consumers Nearing The End Of Their Road Of Debt? - --Are consumers getting close to the end of their road of debt? There are some indications that they might be and that’s not good news for an economy built on consumers spending money they don’t have.Total consumer debt grew and set yet another new record in November, according to the most recent data released by the Federal Reserve. But the rate of growth slowed and credit card debt contracted slightly for the third month out of the last four.Total consumer debt grew by $12.5 billion to $4.176 trillion. (Seasonally adjusted). That represents an annual growth rate of 3.6%, down from 5.5% in October.The Fed consumer debt figures include credit card debt, student loans and auto loans, but do not factor in mortgage debt.Revolving credit outstanding, primarily credit card debt, fell by $2.4 billion, a 2.7% decline. That was offset by a healthy increase of $14.9 billion (5.8%) in non-revolving credit, including student loans, automobile loans and financing for other big-ticket purchases.Even with the decline in revolving credit card debt, Americans still owe nearly $1.1 trillion on their plastic.But the overall trend in borrowing has fallen over the last six months and credit card borrowing has taken a noticeably steep downturn.Some are taking the sagging level of borrowing as a warning sign. As one analyst put it in an article on Seeking Alpha: It could be that the consumer end of the economy has reached the point at which it cannot add any more debt. Unlike the federal government which has sovereign dollars to print, the consumer has a fixed amount they can spend including paying back any loans.” Generally, consumer spending and consumer debt tend to move in the same direction. In other words, the drop in borrowing could indicate consumers are shutting their wallets.

LA area Port Traffic Down Year-over-year in December -Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12 month average.On a rolling 12 month basis, inbound traffic was down 1.7% in December compared to the rolling 12 months ending in November.   Outbound traffic was down 0.2% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month. The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).  Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in February or March depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year (January 25th in 2020). In general imports had been increasing (although down in 2019), and exports have mostly moved sideways over the last 8 years - but have also moved down recently.

International Cargo On US Great Lakes Plunges 7% - World trade in 2019 expanded at its weakest year since 2009. Significant macroeconomic headwinds started to slow the global economy in late 2017, several quarters before the trade war began. We’ve covered the main shipping lanes from the U.S. to China and China to the U.S., along with other routes from Europe to China and China to other Asian countries, but new trade data has shown international cargo on the U.S. Great Lakes also plunged last year. Cargo hauled across the Atlantic Ocean through the St. Lawrence Seaway to Great Lakes ports plunged 7% Y/Y last year, reported The Times of Northwest Indiana. Trade officials attributed the steep decline in cargo volumes on the trade war, high waters that made some regions impassible, and adverse weather conditions that weighed on grain exports. “The challenges of the 2019 shipping season underline the critical importance of protecting the future integrity of the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence waterway as a reliable and efficient trade and transportation corridor for the United States and Canada,” said Bruce Burrows, president of the Chamber of Marine Commerce.“High water levels are negatively impacting residents and businesses, including the marine shipping sector that transports cargo through the St. Lawrence Seaway, and we need to work together with the International Joint Commission and governments to conduct a proper study into water levels and their causes, and to develop a resiliency plan that can address stakeholder needs into the future.”Burrows said the Great Lakes-Seaway transportation system supports more than 238,000 j obs and $35 billion in economic activity for North American economies. 

 "Chemical Activity Barometer Rose in January" - Note: This appears to be a leading indicator for industrial production. From the American Chemistry Council: Chemical Activity Barometer Rose in January The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), jumped 0.6 percent in January on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis following a 0.1 percent gain in December. On a year-over-year (Y/Y) basis, the barometer rose 1.4 percent. "The CAB signals gains in U.S. commerce into the third quarter of 2020,” said Kevin Swift, chief economist at ACC.Applying the CAB back to 1912, it has been shown to provide a lead of two to fourteen months, with an average lead of eight months at cycle peaks as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The median lead was also eight months. At business cycle troughs, the CAB leads by one to seven months, with an average lead of four months. The median lead was three months. The CAB is rebased to the average lead (in months) of an average 100 in the base year (the year 2012 was used) of a reference time series. The latter is the Federal Reserve’s Industrial Production Index.This graph shows the year-over-year change in the 3-month moving average for the Chemical Activity Barometer compared to Industrial Production.  It does appear that CAB (red) generally leads Industrial Production (blue).The year-over-year change in the CAB suggests that the YoY change in industrial production might have bottomed, and suggests some "gains in U.S. commerce into the third quarter of 2020".

Not Out Of The Woods Yet - US Manufacturing PMI Stumbles For 2nd Straight Month -Following the better-than-expected (but still in contraction) European PMIs, Markit is expected to show a continued rebound in both Manufacturing and Services for US markets in preliminary January data.However, while Services did extend its rebound (from 52.8 to 53.2), Manufacturing PMI stumbled for the second month in a row (down from 52.4 to 51.7)... As the chart above shows, the last time Manufacturing tumbled against gains in Services, it was the latter than collapsed down and not the former that caught up. Adjusted for seasonal factors, the IHS Markit Flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index posted 53.1 in January, up from 52.7 in December, to indicate the quickest rise in output since last March. Commenting on the flash PMI data, Siân Jones, Economist at IHS Markit, said: “The recovery of growth momentum across the U.S. private sector continued to quicken at the start of 2020, with overall output rising at the sharpest pace since last March. Nonetheless, the underlying data highlights a manufacturing sector that is not out of the woods yet, with goods producers seeing only modest gains in output and new orders. Service providers also registered a slower upturn in new business, which fed through to softer increases in output charges as part of efforts to attract new customers.“On a positive note, private sector firms increased their workforce numbers at a faster rate, with some also expressing frustration at a lack of available candidates to fill vacancies. Job creation reflected stronger optimism regarding future output. Although firms remain wary of the potential for headwinds through 2020, business confidence creeped higher for the second month running.“Further signs of historically soft price pressures will come as no surprise to the FOMC, who meet next week, adding to expectations of a hold in the policy rate. Muted increases in costs and output charges reportedly stemmed from both producers and suppliers increasing their efforts to boost sales.”

USPS 5-year business plan: ‘Innovate faster,’ cut costs to remain solvent - In an effort to course-correct from more than a decade of net financial losses, the Postal Service on Wednesday released a long-awaited five year-business plan.  Postmaster General Megan Brennan and Robert Duncan, chairman of the USPS Board of Governors, said the Postal Service faces a unique challenge operating both as a large business and as a federal agency with a mandate to provide the same level of delivery service to every address in the United States. “Our mission and our role in America’s economy and society remain indispensable — but we can only continue to compete effectively and meet the high expectations of the public with an improved business model,” Brennan and Duncan wrote in a letter accompanying the five-year plan. The most impactful recommendations in the strategy would require legislation from Congress, regulatory relief from the Postal Regulatory Commission and new labor agreements from the postal unions. “Ultimately, Congress determines the contours of the Postal Service’s statutory business model and therefore has the unique authority to enable this vision or direct the Postal Service toward a different vision,” the plan states. The plan focuses on five major goals:

• Goal 1 — Deliver world-class services and customer experiences
• Goal 2 — Equip, connect, engage, and empower employees to serve our customers
• Goal 3 — Innovate faster to deliver value
• Goal 4 — Invest in future platforms
• Goal 5 — Pursue legislative and regulatory changes necessary to achieve financial sustainability

The sweeping document comes nearly eight months after Postmaster General Megan Brennan told members of the House Oversight and Reform Committee that she and the USPS Board of Governors would release a 10-year business plan to address a $125 billion shortfall the agency expects to face over that period. But that 10-year business plan remains pending. A USPS spokesman told Federal News Network that the agency is still working on providing a final draft of that document to Congress.

Anger mounts in Puerto Rico as workers discover warehouse full of unused aid - In the aftermath of nearly a month of relentless earthquakes and aftershocks, the island of Puerto Rico continues to reel from the devastation. Thousands of homes and buildings have been destroyed or severely damaged. Facing the threat of further quakes on top of constant aftershocks, thousands of families have taken to the streets, living in makeshift tents or in their cars, out of fear that their houses will collapse on top of them. At least 7,000 people are reported as living in shelters throughout the island due to the quakes and thousands more remain without power and running water.  Saturday, in Ponce, the second largest city on the island which was near the epicenter of the quakes, residents discovered a warehouse piled high with water, cots, propane tanks, medical supplies, baby food and other desperately needed unused emergency supplies that the government had failed to dispense to the community. The discovery of the supplies set off a social media uproar after a video went viral of a group of residents breaking into the warehouse to retrieve the goods. As the discovery of the warehouse demonstrates, the response from the local and federal government to the catastrophe continues to be abysmal. Many residents have expressed a horrifying sense of déjà vu over the last month of earthquakes, which takes place only three years after Hurricane María hit the island in 2017. The negligent response from the government in the aftermath of the hurricane led to the deaths of an estimated 7,000 people, a fact that the government sought to cover up and deny for more than a year. In fact, many reports are now suggesting that the supplies found in the warehouse in Ponce on Saturday have been stored away since Hurricane Maria in 2017. It is unclear how or why the supplies never reached those in need. While the government response to the life-threatening conditions has been slow, the response from Governor Wanda Vázquez to the eruption of anger over the video was remarkably prompt, though wildly insufficient. Vázquez fired the director of the island's emergency management agency, Carlos Acevedo, only hours after the video was released on Saturday in an attempt to quell the eruption of mass unrest. Two more officials were fired on Sunday, Housing Secretary Fernando Gil and Department of Family Secretary Glorimar Andújar. Vázquez was installed last August after mass demonstrations involving up to 1 million people forced the resignation of two governors. The governor nominated José Reyes, who oversees the National Guard in Puerto Rico, to be the new commissioner for the State Bureau for Emergency Management and Disaster Management. Under the pretense of “emergency relief,” Vázquez is laying the basis for a police state in preparation for another wave of massive social unrest. So far, 8,500 National Guard troops have been deployed and all local police have been called back to duty from vacations.

Nearly 5 Times As Many Police Officers Killed Themselves Than Were Shot In 2019 -In 2019, according to the Officer Down Memorial Page, 47 police officers were shot, 7 killed in a vehicular assault, and three died from assault. Another 77 cops died as a result of car crashes, heart attacks, and illnesses. Absent from the database of fallen officers, however, are the 228 cops who ended their own watch. This number is a giant leap from the year before and the fourth consecutive year that it’s risen. As the number of officers killed in the line of duty decreased by 20%, the number of cops taking their own lives has increased 35%. The website Blue H.E.L.P. (Honor. Educate. Lead. Prevent.) has already recorded five officer suicides in 2020.The mainstream media often portrays the unfortunate random killing of police officers as analogous to a larger “war on cops.” The reality is that there is a concerted public relations effort underway, on the part of law enforcement, with the intention of stemming the growing public calls for more oversight and accountability.If law enforcement were genuine about wanting to save the lives of cops, they would begin by attempting to put focus on the out of control epidemic of police suicides, which dwarfs the number of cops fatally shot the line of duty. Cops are killing themselves at a rate 4 times higher than they are dying in the line of duty and this subject seems entirely taboo.  Over the past three decades, the number of on-duty police killings has decreased substantially. Instead of attempting to fix the glaring problems in policing, law enforcement has invested itself in attempting to distract and divide the public. With the help of mainstream media, they attempt to portray themselves as victims of a rabid and out of control anti-police campaign which is violently and systematically targeting cops. But this is simply not true.

 Exposure to flame retardants is causing US kids to lose millions of IQ points. They're more damaging than lead or mercury. The chemicals we've long feared the most — heavy metals like lead and mercury — are less of a threat to kids' developing brains than they were two decades ago. But two new menaces may be taking their place: pesticides and flame retardants.According to new research from New York University, flame retardants resulted in a loss of 162 million IQ points among children in the US between 2001 and 2016.The study, published Tuesday in the journal Molecular and Cellular Endocrinology, looked at the four chemicals known to impact the brain of a developing child most: lead, mercury, pesticides, and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (otherwise known as flame retardants).   Leo Trasande, a pediatrician and public-health researcher at NYU who co-authored the study, described these pollutants  as "hit-and-run" chemicals: Once a child is exposed to them, there's no reversing the damage.  "Kids' brain development is exquisitely vulnerable," Trasande told Business Insider. "If you disrupt, even with subtle effects, the way a child's brain is wired, you can have permanent and lifelong consequences."  The study found that lead cost US kids 78 million IQ points during the 15-year period studied, while pesticides caused a loss of nearly 27 million IQ points during those years. Mercury, meanwhile, caused a loss of 2.5 million IQ points.   The researchers found that among kids exposed to toxins from 2001 to to 2016, the proportion of IQ loss due to exposure to flame retardants and pesticides increased from 67% to 81%. Flame retardants can be found in household furniture and electronics, while pesticides can be consumed when they linger on produce.  "What we found was quite striking," Trasande said. "We know that there is no safe level of lead exposure. The same is true for methylmercury, pesticides, and flame retardants." The study also found that there is an economic cost to childhood brain damage: Trasande said that each individual IQ point is worth roughly 2% of a child's lifetime economic productivity. So if a child could potentially make $1 million over the course of their lifetime, they would lose $20,000 for every IQ point lost.

Let’s make recess great again - The schoolyard should be an exploratory classroom of sorts, not a holding pen for bored children. The state of Utah recently ruled that recess now counts as instructional time during the school day. This is a hugely important decision that recognizes the value of outdoor play and the positive effect it has on children's learning in the classroom. Recess is often the first thing to go when teachers feel pressed for time. But now in Utah they won't have to make that awful choice because recess is included in the "990 instructional hours [spread] over a minimum of 180 school days per academic year" (via ABC4). Kids will still have their play time, teachers get a break, and everyone regroups with better focus for the next lesson. It's an admirable and progressive decision, and one that I hope is copied by other states. Reading about this ruling got me thinking about recess and the potential for learning that exists. While I'm all in favor of tossing kids outside en masse and letting them do their own thing, schools can encourage even more creative play and physical activity by branching out from the traditional, boring playground model. A few tweaks could create an exciting learning environment for kids. Based on feedback from my own three young children (who frequently lament how boring recess is in a hyper-sanitized, safety-obsessed playground), as well as my own observations, I think schools could improve upon recess in the following ways:

 Students Suffer Separation Anxiety After Schools Take Smartphones During Class - Smartphones continue to be one of the biggest distractions that teachers of all levels have to deal with in the classroom.  Now, according to the WSJ, teachers are dealing with a consequence that nobody ever could have imagined when taking kids phones in order to provide a distraction-free learning environment: separation anxiety.   Teachers across the US are comparing notes on what the best ways to manage this anxiety are. Some of them allow students to physically hold their phones in pouches that they can't open during class. Others let students charge their phones at stations in class instead of having to leave them alone in their lockers.   Some teachers even offer extra credit to students for being able to part with their phones during class.   South Bronx Early College Academy Charter School had to find a way to stop students from sneaking out of class to their locker to check their phones. They took the route of buying foamlike pouches that won't unlock without a special magnet.  The school lets students decorate their pouches and personalize them to “make them as cool as humanly possible for something that’s restricting them from their device,” according to the school's principal, Brian Blough.  Blough says students were "fiending" the first few weeks waiting to have their pouches unlocked after the school day.  Other students tried to pry open and cut their pouches open. Eighth-grader Olamide Oladitan simply said: “It didn’t work.” He eventually gave up on trying to figure out a way to open his pouch. “I didn’t like it because I really wanted to get to my phone, but at the same time I didn’t hate it because it helped me get better grades,” he admitted, likely begrudgingly.  YouTube eve shows some "hacks" to try and get the pouches open, including one video that shows people lighting the pouches on fire.  Other schools, like High Point Academy Fort Worth in Texas, use apps that track how much students touch their phone during school hours. Students can earn points and rewards for not touching their phones during school hours, including Starbucks drinks and credits that allow them to drop their worst test scores.

Ontario teachers to stage regional walkouts, as Ford government escalates threats - Tens of thousands of Ontario teachers will join one-day regional strikes this week to oppose the Conservative provincial government’s assault on public education. Close to 200,000 teachers have been working without contracts since August 31. They are affiliated with four different unions representing teachers at, respectively, elementary and secondary schools, state-funded French-language schools and Catholic schools. All are bearing the brunt of the Conservatives’ plan to balance the budget by slashing education and other public services, and all are targeted by the government’s “Protecting a Sustainable Public Sector for Future Generations Act.” Passed last November, this law limits pay and benefit increases for teachers, hospital workers and other provincial public sector workers to well below the inflation rate for the next three years. Yet the four teachers unions are doing everything to keep teachers divided. Each is pursuing separate negotiations with the government and a separate bargaining strategy, while claiming that teachers can avoid a head-on clash with Ontario’s right-wing, Doug Ford-led government by limiting job action to work-to-rule campaigns and rotating walkouts. The 81,000-member Elementary Teachers Federation of Ontario (ETFO) has called for regional walkouts against different school boards for every day this week. The one-day strikes will begin today with walkouts at the Toronto District School Board, the province’s largest, and the York Region District School Board, which serves nine municipalities north of Metro Toronto and is the province’s third largest school district. On Tuesday, all 45,000 members of the Ontario English Catholic Teachers’ Association (OCETA) are slated to walk off the job. On Wednesday, high school teachers affiliated with the Ontario Secondary School Teachers’ Federation (OSSTF) will strike for the day at nine school boards, including the Toronto District School Board. The OSSTF held a one-day province-wide strike on Dec. 4, and since then has been holding one day of rotating regional walkouts per week.

Absurdistan- MO Librarians Face Year In Jail For Not Banning Prurient Books - Missouri bill proposes imprisonment for librarians who don’t ban books - A Missouri bill would create “community oversight boards,” (i.e. censorship boards) to decide what books are appropriate for certain ages.The bill says children should not have access to any book which includes descriptions of sexual content that “appeals to the prurient interest of minors.”And according to the bill, sexual content includes even mere mentions of nudity.Bear in mind– we’re not just talking about the Game of Thrones books, which are pretty clearly intended for adult audiences.This applies to even classics like Bram Stoker’s Dracula, DH Lawrence’s Lady Chatterly’s Lover, F. Scott Fitzgerald’s The Great Gatsby, James Joyce’s Ulysses, Hemingway’s The Garden of Eden, Margaret Mitchell’s Gone with the Wind, and of course, Shakespeare’s Romeo and Juliet.  There are dozens more.The ban would be in effect at all town libraries across the state. And if librarians don’t aggressively enforce the book ban, they could face a year in prison.Just imagine A YEAR IN PRISON because some eighth grader was reading Shakespeare.What’s even more interesting is that the bill doesn’t seem to think violence is inappropriate.So the murder of two children in Lord of the Flies would be fine, but not the innocent skinny-dipping in the lagoon. Click here for the full story.

The effects of sense of belonging on student mental health outcomes - Feelings of depression, suicidal ideation, and attempted suicide among college students have dramatically increased in recent years. Researchers have found that 20 percent of college students have experienced suicidal ideation and 9 percent have attempted suicide. The numbers are even more striking for students who identify as sexual minorities; for example, over 50 percent of bisexual students experience suicidal ideation and self-harm and over 25 percent have attempted suicide. Numerous studies support these findings, showcasing that mental health conditions are common among college students, especially among students who do not identify as heterosexual. Further, these studies show that students who struggle with mental health conditions, including depression, also experience diminished energy levels and difficulty concentrating. This adversely affects their sense of wellbeing, academic performance, and the probability of college completion. An international group of researchers recently studied the effects of varying levels of sense of belonging and the experience of sexual assault on predicting suicidality and depression among LGBQ and heterosexual college students.  Significantly more LGBQ students reported depressive symptoms, suicidal ideation, and experiences of sexual assault within a twelve-month period than heterosexual students. Depression and suicidal ideation had a significantly strong positive correlation to each other among both groups of students, while sexual assault and depression had a smaller positive correlation. Sexual orientation, sexual assault, and sense of belonging were significant predictors of depressive symptoms. Sexual orientation and sexual assault were significant predictors of suicidal ideation for students with a low sense of belonging, but not for those with a high sense of belonging. Sense of belonging provided a protective effect against depression and suicidal ideation in the presence of sexual assault in both LGBQ and heterosexual students but the effect was much greater among LGBQ students. Though more could be done, in recent years numerous schools have implemented mental health information sessions during orientation week to reduce the stigma surrounding mental illness and introduce students to the available services. Some, such as UCLA, have implemented comprehensive programs that offer screening, tracking, and treatment of anxiety, depression, and suicidality to all students. With the understanding that LGBQ students are more likely to experience adverse mental health outcomes, most college campuses have versions of a LGBTQ alliance (including transgender students as well) which have been shown to reduce the severity of adverse mental health outcomes among LGBTQ students. Further, schools are using data from HMS, Columbia’s Sexual Health Initiative to Foster Transformation, and other comprehensive datasets to inform sexual assault prevention strategies and increase feelings of safety and belonging on campus.

UW Lecturer Claims He Was Demoted After Pointing Out Male & Female Differences - Stuart Reges, a principal lecturer of computer science at the University of Washington, alleges that he was demoted for being sympathetic to James Damore, the fired Google employee who wrote the controversial Google memo in 2017. In an article for Quillette, Reges wrote that it all started in 2018 when he wrote another piece for the outlet titled, “Why Women Don’t Code,” which gained popularity after Jordan Peterson tweeted a link to the story.The recent Quillette article states that he was initially hired to run UW’s introductory computer science classes to which he developed two “highly successful courses that have over 4,500 enrollments combined per year.”   Yet after his 2018 Quillette piece graduate students at the school filed a grievance against him with their union. Reges told Campus Reform that he was deeply concerned about what happened to Damore and that he hoped it was an overreaction but said, “I've since concluded that he was the canary in the coal mine.  I have seen more and more emphasis on what I call the equity agenda in tech in general and at my school in particular.”   In response to the graduate students' complaints, UW created a working group, which in turn released new guidelines. The guidelines included less rigorous grading when it comes to coding, sensitivity and bias training for teaching assistants,  and spending less time trying to identify students who are cheating. The working group also suggested reviewing each course to ensure it is inclusive. Furthermore, the guidelines recommended that professors include in their class syllabi "indigenous land acknowledgment" gender-neutral names that also reflect a number of different cultures, and the avoidance of the use of phrases like "y'all," "folks," and "you guys." Reges said that before he wrote the Quillette article he spent a year discussing it with professors, to which he concluded, “I am convinced that our diversity efforts are entering a dangerous phase where we emphasize blaming men more than encouraging women, seeing any difference in participation as proof of oppression when perhaps it is just a difference in the choices that men and women make for what career options most interest them.”

The College Degree Of The Richest Person In Every Country -- Money and education don’t always go hand-in-hand, but it doesn’t hurt to sway the odds in your favor by studying hard at college. However, sometimes choosing the most appropriate degree is the hardest part. It can be helpful to look for inspiration from people who have already become a success in your chosen industry.A few months back, we showed you the College Degree of the Top‑earning CEO in Every State. Now we’ve researched and compiled a list of the college degree taken by the richest person in every country around the world.The map we’ve created focuses on the undergraduate degrees that the world's richest people have attained. There are instances where some of these people have attained qualifications without an undergraduate degree (e.g. Graeme Hart of New Zealand completed an MBA but has no undergrad degree, so is marked as ‘no undergrad degree’), but all people marked as ‘no degree’ have no higher-education qualifications at all. Some people also failed to complete their degree, they have been labelled as ‘incomplete’. There are also instances where a family is classed as a country's ‘richest person’ and so we have labelled them according to their family’s cumulative qualifications (e.g. Croatia is marked as ‘multiple degrees’). In all instances we’ve tried to make the labelling as clear as possible, but for a more in-depth look check out our research here. If you’re hoping your higher  education is to be a stepping stone on the route to your first billion dollars, then check out the map below and see what undergrad degree is necessary to become one of the world’s richest people.

Trump Administration is “woke” to the student-loan crisis: What can it do in 2020? - Love 'em or hate 'em, student-loan debtors owe a debt of gratitude to Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren for putting the student-loan crisis on the front burner of national politics. Liz proposes to forgive the first $50,000 of student debt if she is elected President. Bernie says--what the hell--let's forgive it all.  That's $1.6 trillion! Meanwhile, as the Democrats offer to help college borrowers, Trump’s Department of Education (DOE), led by Education Secretary Betsy DeVos, is doing everything it can to alienate a very large constituency--45 million student-loan debtors.  But last month, the Trumpers became "woke" to the student-loan catastrophe.  As reported by the Wall Street Journal's Josh Mitchell and Andrew Restuccia, the Trump administration is considering some relief options, including allowing borrowers to shed their student-loan debt in bankruptcy.According to the WSJ, the Trump administration is mulling a policy adjustment whereby DOE "would essentially decline to contest borrowers’ requests before [bankruptcy] judges to have their student loans canceled.” The beauty of this proposal is Trump could make this adjustment without congressional approval.Better than that, Trump could claim that he is only following the policy announced by the Obama administration in 2015 when DOE's Lynn Mahaffie said in a letter that DOE would not oppose bankruptcy relief for student borrowers if it did not make economic sense to do so.Of course, DOE never followed that policy. Instead, it has allowed Educational Credit Management Corporation to oppose virtually every student debtor’s petition to shed student-loan debt in the bankruptcy courts.  And this has been DOE’s practice under both the Obama and the Trump administration.All President Trump needs to do to grant significant relief to college debtors is tell ECMC to fire its battalions of lawyers and file formal non-opposition documents when worthy student debtors seek to discharge their student loans in bankruptcy.

Pittsburgh Retiree Sues Federal Government to Get His Life Savings Back - Institute for Justice -- Terry Rolin’s life savings of $82,373 were seized by the federal government even though he has not been charged with any crime. In fact, his daughter was doing something completely legal—flying domestically with cash—when the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) seized the money in August 2019 at the Pittsburgh International Airport. Today, Terry and his daughter Rebecca Brown are teaming up with the Institute for Justice (IJ) to file a federal lawsuit to get his life savings returned and to end unconstitutional and unlawful practices by the DEA and the Transportation Security Administration (TSA).  Terry, 79, is a retired railroad engineer born and raised in Pittsburgh. For many years, he followed his parents’ habit of hiding money in the basement of their home. When Terry moved out of his family home and into a smaller apartment, he became uncomfortable with keeping a large amount of cash. Last summer, when his daughter Rebecca was home for a family event, Terry asked her to take the money and open a new joint bank account that he could use to pay for dental work and to fix his truck, among other needs. With an early flight on a Monday morning, Rebecca did not have time to visit a bank in Pittsburgh and chose to carry the money with her on the way to Boston. Worried about flying with a large amount of cash, Rebecca checked online and found out that flying with any amount of money domestically is completely legal. However, during security screening, TSA agents took her bag aside and made her wait to be questioned by Pennsylvania State Troopers. While she was eventually allowed to leave for her gate with the money, before boarding she was approached again by a trooper and a DEA agent. After interrogating Rebecca and calling Terry, the agent seized the money without charging either Terry or Rebecca with a crime. Months later, Terry and Rebecca received notice that the DEA intends to permanently keep the money using civil forfeiture, a process that allows law enforcement to take the money without convicting anyone of a crime.

Sick of Big Pharma’s pricing, health insurers pledge $55M for cheap generics - Fed up with the exorbitant price tags on old, off-patent medications, 18 Blue Cross and Blue Shield companies are partnering with a nonprofit dedicated to manufacturing and selling affordably priced generic drugs. The BCBS companies are providing $55 million in their new partnership with nonprofit Civica Rx,the two organizations announced. Like the new venture, Civica was born out of frustration with the pharmaceutical industry’s steep price increases as well as perilous shortages of essential drugs. In 2018, numerous health care organizations banded together with three philanthropies to manufacture their own brand of generic drugs, forming Civica and thwarting the generic industry. Their aim was to provide hospitals with injectable generic medications in steady supplies at affordable prices. The health care organizations involved in Civica now represent over 1,200 hospitals in 46 states. Last October, Civica delivered its first drugs to a hospital in Utah and is now producing and distributing several drugs. With the new partnership with BCBS companies, Civica will expand out of just hospital medications. Specifically, the deal will create a subsidiary that will either make drugs or partner with manufacturers to offer more affordably priced generic versions of select drugs in exchange for aggregate, multi-year purchasing commitments. The partners were mum on which drugs they will select but said that they will first focus on ones “identified as having high potential for savings” that currently have little competition. They also encouraged others, including “other health plans, employers, retail partners, and health care innovators” to join their effort.

Pharma Founder Gets 66 Months For Bribing Doctors To Overprescribe Deadly Opioids - Millions of Americans who lived through the financial crisis probably recall that not a single executive of a major investment bank was jailed in the aftermath, despite running organizations seemingly dedicated to perpetuating a criminal fraud on nearly every counterparty and client.But when Americans look back at the opioid crisis, they'll remember that at least one executive of a major opioid manufacturer and distributor was sentenced to a fairly weighty sentence - five-and-a-half years (66 months) in federal prison - for an illegal kickback scheme that effectively involved bribing doctors to prescribe potentially lethal doses of fentanyl. That's right: Packaged under the name brand Subsys, Insys sold a painkiller made from the same ultra-powerful synthetic opioid responsible for tens of thousands of deaths across America.According to the FT, which, in partnership with PBS's Frontline, is producing a documentary on the opioid crisis, John Kapoor, the founder of Insys, was sentenced to prison time on Thursday after being prosecuted under the RICO act - a law adopted decades ago to help the DoJ prosecute the mafia. Kapoor joins seven other Insys executives who have already received jail time for their role in the company's illegal shenanigans, which included uses "ruthless" sales tactics to encourage doctors to prescribe more of their drug. Several doctors who took money from the company in exchange for kickbacks transparently disguised as speaking fees are also either being prosecuted, or have already been sentenced to jail time.

 US Drug Overdose Deaths Drop For First Time Since 1990 - For the first time in nearly three decades, the deaths resulting from drug overdose in the United States have dropped, according to multiple reports. As reported by The New York Times, according to government data that was published on Jan. 15, the total amount of deaths resulting from drug overdose dropped around 5 percent in 2019. “[For the] first time in almost 30 years, we’ve seen a decline in the number of Americans dying from an overdose—its a 5 percent reduction,” said Jim Carroll, the director of the Office of National Drug Control Policy, according to The Hill.  The news outlet reported that Carroll was appointed director in 2018 by President Donald Trump.  “It’s a result of everything - its working on the supply of drugs that are coming in but it’s also working on demand. It’s getting more people into treatment and its spreading the message on prevention,” Carroll said. Carroll commended some local officials for trying to look past incarceration as a means to solve the epidemic, and instead looking for ways to offer treatment. Instead of arresting drug users, the goal is to treat and educate them as an individual. Carroll stated that this method had made a difference in the community. According to the report, the drop was primarily attributed to the number of deaths from prescription opioid drugs, one of the drugs that had set off an epidemic in the United States. The New York Times reported that the opioid epidemic was so catastrophic that the drug had decreased the life expectancy in the country.

Drugs May Be Killing Twice as Many Americans Than Previously Thought  -Recent research finds that official government figures may be underestimating drug deaths by half. Researchers estimate that 142,000 people died due to drug use in 2016. Drug use decreases life expectancy after age 15 by 1.4 years for men and by just under 1 year for women, on average.Government records may be severely underreporting how many Americans die from drug use, according to a new study by researchers from the University of Pennsylvania and Georgetown University.Researchers analyzed more than 44 million death certificates issued nationwide over an 18-year period to identify nearly 670,000 deaths that coded as drug-related.Their models showed these drug-coded deaths, which included drug overdoses and mental health and behavioral conditions related to drug use, only accounted for about half of all drug-associated deaths. The study was published in PLOS One. According to the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), the reported rate of drug-related deaths among 15- to 64-year-olds was 9 percent in 2016. This is already a significant rise from about 4 percent 7 years earlier, when the NCHS classified 63,000 deaths as drug-related.However, that estimate didn’t include deaths that aren’t related to overdose but can still involve drug use, such as HIV, suicide, and blood vessel damage.Including these factors, researchers estimate the actual figure is more than double the NCHS figures, at 142,000 people dead due to drug use in 2016. “These findings should be accentuating the wakeup call that has already been announced year after year, as the drug overdose deaths are revealed by the National Center [for] Health Statistics. The fact is that, apparently, the drug epidemic is twice as serious as indicated by those analyses,” Samuel Preston, PhD, professor of sociology at the University of Pennsylvania and one of the study authors, told Healthline. In 2017, more than 70,000 Americans died from drug overdoses, according to the National Institute on Drug Abuse.

Tulsi Gabbard Endorses Legalizing Drugs - Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) is calling for the U.S. to legalize currently illicit drugs.“If we take that step to legalize and regulate, then we're no longer treating people who are struggling with substance addiction and abuse as criminals and instead getting them the help that they need,” the 2020 presidential candidate said at a campaign stop in Merrimack, New Hampshire on Friday.She was responding to a voter who asked whether her plan to end the war on drugs centered on more harm reduction and treatment or if it involved moving to “legalize and regulate narcotics so that you're no longer seeing tainted drugs on the street...and involvement in the black market.” The congresswoman replied that her answer was “all of the above.”  “The costs and the consequence to this failed war on drugs is so vast and far reaching, socially and fiscally, that if we take these necessary steps, we'll be able to solve a lot of other problems that we're dealing with in this country,” she said.

Sorry, You Might Get the Flu Twice This Year — Here’s Why - To say this flu season has been abnormal is an understatement.For one, the flu season got its earliest start in 16 years. Up to 18 million people have gotten the flu this year, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) latest estimates. Up to 210,000 people have been hospitalized and thousands have died, including 39 children.We're also seeing B strains of the flu dominate, something that hasn't happened in the United States in nearly 30 years. And, unfortunately, the vaccine missed the mark with B/Victoria, the most common strain we're seeing this year. The CDC believes the shot only covers about 58 percent of B-linked cases. Now, halfway through flu season, A strains are picking up, increasing the odds we'll have a "double-barreled flu season," in which two strains strike back to back — a pattern health experts say is extremely rare.Between the early start, rise in B strains, and recent spike in A-strain illnesses, this flu season officially has infectious disease experts stumped."This season has turned a lot of [what we know about flu] on its head," said Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist with Vanderbilt University Medical Center and the medical director at the National Foundation for Infectious Diseases. "There's a lot we know, and even more we don't know about flu."  Though the predominant strains are different this year, we're seeing the same pattern play out: Activity took off with B/Victoria and now that second wave of A/H1N1 is coming for us, according to Schaffner. “Around the country, my colleagues and I are seeing H1N1 come up strong, and it's now about 50-50 [with B/Victoria]," Schaffner told Healthline. The most worrisome part of a double-barreled flu season is that you can get sick twice.  Just because you caught a B-strain flu doesn't mean that you're immune from the A strains. Though there will be some protection within each strain — in that contracting an A strain will protect you against other A strains, and B strains will protect against other B's — there's not much cross protection. B strains haven't hit this hard for nearly 30 years, since during the 1992–1993 season, the CDC told Healthline. This means that many people — especially kids — have never been exposed to the strain, and consequently, don't have residual immunity against it..

Pharma is making some effort to fight superbugs, but progress is 'patchy' - Amid rising concern over a lack of antibiotics, a new analysis finds most drug makers are failing to expand their pipelines to sufficiently combat resistance, although more companies are sharing surveillance data on where resistance is occurring and are no longer overselling the medicines. Overall, the number of antibiotics being developed has increased only marginally in the past two years and just nine of these medicines are considered novel, most of which are being pursued by small and medium-sized companies with fewer resources than global drug makers. And while more clinical-stage antibiotics are supported by plans to ensure better access, most efforts remain patchy.

China: coronavirus cases surge, fuelling fears of major outbreak - A mysterious Sars-like virus has spread around China – including to Beijing – fuelling anxiety about the prospect of a major outbreak in the country as millions begin travelling for lunar new year celebrations. Authorities reported 139 new cases of the new strain of coronavirus over the weekend, more than doubling the total number of infected patients since the virus was first detected last month in the central city of Wuhan.On Monday authorities said cases had been confirmed in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong province in the south, heightening fears ahead of the lunar new year holiday, when more than 400 million people are expected to travel domestically and internationally.State broadcaster CCTV said on Monday evening there were seven suspected cases in other parts of the country, including Shandong in the east, and the south-western provinces of Sichuan, Guangxi and Yunnan. Five people who travelled from Wuhan were also being treated for fevers in Zhejiang province.“People’s lives and health should be given top priority and the spread of the outbreak should be resolutely curbed,” said President Xi Jinping, weighing in on the matter for the first time. The strain has caused alarm because of its connection to severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars), which killed nearly 650 people across mainlandChina and Hong Kong in 2002-03. Three people have so far died in the current outbreak, which has spread to Thailand, Japan and South Korea.

Mystery Chinese Virus Has Likely Infected Over 1,700 As It Sweeps Across China and Japan - While there have been more than 60 confirmed cases of a new mystery virus emerging from Wuhan, China, UK experts estimate that closer to 1,700 have been sickened with the SARS-like pneumonia, according to the BBC. Meanwhile, SCMP reports three suspected cases in Shenzhen, Shanghai. "I am substantially more concerned than I was a week ago," disease specialist Prof Neil Ferguson told the outlet. The work was conducted by the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London, which advises bodies including the UK government and the World Health Organization (WHO). –BBC The estimate was calculated by the Imperial College of London based on the following assumptions:

• Wuhan International Airport has a catchment population of 19 million individuals [1].
• There is a mean 10-day delay between infection and detection, comprising a 5-6 day incubation period [8,9]  and a 4-5 day delay from symptom onset to detection/hospitalisation of a case (the cases detected in Thailand and Japan were hospitalised 3 and 7 days after onset, respectively) [4,10].
• Total volume of international travel from Wuhan over the last two months has been 3,301 passengers per day. This estimate is derived from the 3,418 foreign passengers per day in the top 20 country destinations based on 2018 IATA data [11], and uses 2016 IATA data held by Imperial College to correct for the travel surge at Chinese New Year present in the latter data (which has not happened yet this year) and for travel to countries outside the top 20 destination list.

According to the report, "It is likely that the Wuhan outbreak of a novel coronavirus has caused substantially more cases of moderate or severe respiratory illness than currently reported. The estimates presented here suggest surveillance should be expanded to include all hospitalised cases of pneumonia or severe respiratory disease in the Wuhan area and other well-connected Chinese cities. This analysis does not directly address transmission routes, but past experience with SARS and MERS-CoV outbreaks of similar scale suggests currently self-sustaining human-to-human transmission should not be ruled out."

Australia to screen some flights from China, warns coronavirus difficult to stop (Reuters) - Australia will begin screening passengers arriving from a Chinese city in a bid to stop the spread of a new coronavirus, the country's chief medical officer said on Tuesday, although authorities warned that an outbreak would be hard to prevent. Chinese authorities have confirmed more than 200 people have caught the new virus, which causes a type of pneumonia that has killed four people in the central city of Wuhan. The virus - which can pass from person-to-person - broke out in Wuhan but four cases have been reported in Thailand, Japan and South Korea, raising concerns about its spread through international air travel. Brendan Murphy, the chief medical officer for the Australian government, said biosecurity officials would begin screening passengers arriving on the three weekly flights to Sydney from Wuhan starting on Thursday. Passengers would be given an information pamphlet and asked to present themselves if they had a fever or suspected they might have the disease. Murphy said the measures only offered limited protection. "You cannot absolutely prevent the spread of disease into the country. The incubation period is probably a week," Murphy told reporters in Canberra. "It's about identifying those with a high risk and making sure those who have a high risk know about it and know how to get medical attention." China is the largest source of tourists to Australia, with more than 1 million people arriving last year.

A video of medics in Hazmat suits scanning plane passengers for China’s mysterious Wuhan virus is stoking fears of a global epidemic - A video of medics in Hazmat suits scanning dozens of plane passengers for the symptoms of a mysterious, fatal virus spreading across China is stoking fears of a global epidemic. Chinese authorities have been stepping up their efforts to stop the spread of 2019-nCoV, also known as the "Wuhan virus," named after the central Chinese city where the infections originated. The clip shows at least two medical staff in full Hazmat suits standing in the plane's aisle scanning the temperatures of every passenger on the flight. It was tweeted Monday by David Paulk, a journalist at Shanghai-based news site Sixth Tone. He said it showed a domestic flight out of Wuhan, and the clip had been circulating on Chinese social media on Monday. Business Insider has not independently verified the video. The state-funded Beijing News also posted a similar clip from January 12, which showed at least three medics scanning the temperatures of passengers on Air China Flight CA119 before takeoff from Wuhan to MacauChina is desperately trying to prevent the spread of a mysterious, deadly coronavirus named 2019-CoV, or the "Wuhan virus." Not much is known about the illness, apart from the fact that originated from Wuhan city, has pneumonia-like symptoms, and is similar to the 2003 SARS virus. As of Monday, at least three people in the city have died from the illness, and dozens others are infected, local authorities said. The virus has also spread to Beijing and Shenzhen, as well as Thailand, Japan, and South Korea.

China reports another death from Wuhan virus and infections in other cities as WHO warns of human transmission - Chinese authorities on Monday said another person died over the weekend from coronavirus infection, bringing the death count to three in the city of Wuhan, and for the first time officially announced the recently identified virus had spread to other areas in China.It came as the World Health Organisation (WHO) said there was an indication that the pneumonia-like virus – thought to have originated in a seafood and animal meat market in Wuhan – could spread through human-to-human transmission. China’s National Health Commission said two people in Beijing were confirmed as being infected, along with one in Shenzhen, which borders Hong Kong. Other suspected cases were also reported on Monday, with eight people under quarantine in Shenzhen and five in the coastal province of Zhejiang, which neighbours Shanghai. Wuhan reported the death of a patient with the virus and more than 130 new infections over the weekend alone, taking the total in the central Chinese city to 198. Reports that the virus was spreading in China raised particular concern with hundreds of millions of people travelling across China this week for the Lunar New Year holiday. Wuhan itself has a population of about 11 million people – more than New York or London – and is one of the country’s major rail hubs. China’s Centre for Disease Control and Prevention said on Saturday that the infection was “preventable and controllable”.  In statements via Twitter on Monday, the WHO said: “An animal source seems the most likely primary source of this novel coronavirus outbreak, with some limited human-to-human transmission occurring between close contacts.”

WHO calls for emergency meeting on new virus in China, as cases spread to health care workers - The World Health Organization announced Monday that it would convene an expert panel to determine whether a fast-developing outbreak caused by a new virus in China should be declared a global health emergency.The news came as China reported confirmed cases in Beijing and in Guangdong province, 14 cases in health care workers — a first — and a confirmed incident involving human-to-human spread of the new virus, known provisionally as 2019-nCoV. It is a coronavirus, from the same family as the viruses that caused the 2003 SARS outbreak, which sickened more than 8,000 people globally, killing nearly 800. It also comes as China prepares to celebrate the Lunar New Year, when people throughout the country travel to be with family. Experts fear this event could spread the virus widely. STAT wants to find the best new idea in science & medicine — and we think it may come from youTo date, China has confirmed more than 200 infections with the new virus; four people have died and at least eight others remain in critical condition. “That’s really a concern,” Ralph Baric, a coronavirus expert at the University of North Carolina, said of the case count, which jumped by roughly 150 cases over the weekend. “That pretty much means that human-to-human transmission is occurring, and it may not be as difficult as had been suggested.” The WHO has said for some time that human transmission couldn’t be ruled out, though Chinese authorities have been slower to acknowledge the possibility. But that changed Monday, because of cases diagnosed in Guangdong province. The bulk of the cases so far are in Wuhan, a central Chinese city of 11 million people. But on Monday authorities confirmed five cases in Beijing and 13 in Guangdong. Most of the Guangdong cases had recently visited Wuhan. But two — family members of a case — had not, showing that the virus can transmit from person-to-person in some circumstances. How readily it does that remains an unanswered question at this point.

China's Wuhan shuts down transport as global alarm mounts over virus spread - (Reuters) - Deaths from China’s new flu-like virus rose to 17 on Wednesday, with more than 540 cases confirmed, leading the city at the center of the outbreak to close transport networks and urge citizens not to leave as fears rose of the contagion spreading. The previously unknown coronavirus strain is believed to have emerged from an animal market in the central city of Wuhan, and is suspected by Chinese officials to originate from illegally traded wildlife. Cases have been detected as far away as the United States. Contrasting with its secrecy over the 2002-03 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) that killed nearly 800 people, China’s communist government has this time given regular updates to try to avoid panic as millions travel for the Lunar New Year. The World Health Organization (WHO) has been meeting in a high-tech room at its Geneva headquarters to decide whether the outbreak is a global health emergency.Many Chinese were cancelling trips, buying face masks, avoiding public places such as cinemas and shopping centers, and even turning to an online plague simulation game or watching disaster movie “The Flu” as a way to cope. Wuhan’s local government will close all urban transport networks and suspend outgoing flights from the city as of 10 a.m. on Jan. 23 (0200 GMT), state media reported. The government said citizens should not leave the city unless there were special circumstances. The measure was intended to “effectively cut off the transmission of the virus, resolutely curb the spread of the epidemic, and ensure the health and safety of the people,” state media cited Wuhan’s virus taskforce as saying. 

Wuhan virus: Number of cases in China tops 800, death toll hits 26  China confirmed 830 cases of patients infected with the new coronavirusas of Jan 23, while the death toll from the virus has risen to 26, the National Health Commission said on Friday (Jan 24). The body said authorities were also examining 1,072 suspected cases of the virus. The virus, which started in Wuhan city in Hubei province, has since spread to other major cities including Beijing, Shanghai and Hong Kong. Cases have been confirmed in Singapore, Japan, Thailand, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam and the United States. The World Health Organization (WHO) on Thursday called the outbreak "an emergency in China" but stopped short of declaring the epidemic of international concern. The National Health Commission said the death toll was revised upward following eight new deaths on Thursday, and 259 new cases reported across the country. Out of the total 830 confirmed cases, 177 were in serious condition, it added. Thirty-four people have been "cured and discharged".Scrambling to contain the outbreak, the local government in Wuhan, a city of 11 million people, suspended most transport operations on Thursday, including outgoing flights, and people were told not to leave. Hours later, neighbouring Huanggang, a city of about 7 million people, announced similar measures. "The lockdown of 11 million people is unprecedented in public health history,"

Coronavirus Pandemic Simulation Run 3 Months Ago Predicts 65 Million People Could Die -- As of this morning, the deadly coronavirus that originated in China has killed 26 people and infected more than 900.   But according to one simulation run less than three months ago, things could get much, much worse. Less than three months ago, Eric Toner, a scientist at the Johns Hopkins Centre for Health Security, had run a simulation of a global pandemic involving the exact same type of virus, according to Business Insider.  His simulation predicted that 65 million people could die "within 18 months".   He commented: “I have thought for a long time that the most likely virus that might cause a new pandemic would be a coronavirus.”As of now, the outbreak is not a pandemic, but it has been reported in eight different countries. Toner's simulation said that nearly "every country in the world" would have the virus after six months.He commented: “We don’t yet know how contagious it is. We know that it is being spread person to person, but we don’t know to what extent. An initial first impression is that this is significantly milder than SARS. So that’s reassuring. On the other hand, it may be more transmissible than SARS, at least in the community setting.”

 Fifteen More Dead of Coronavirus in China Outbreak: Virus Update - Fifteen more people have died in China’s outbreak of coronavirus, where the outbreak is centered. France reported the first cases in Europe, and U.S. health authorities are monitoring more than 60 people for potential infection. Fifteen more people died and an additional 180 infections have been confirmed in China’s Hubei province, local authorities said in a statement, a dramatic increase in the toll from the outbreak of coronavirus centered on the city of Wuhan. Seventy-seven of the new cases were in Wuhan, and the total number of deaths in the province is now up to 39. Chinese authorities have locked down public travel in the city and several surrounding areas in an effort to contain the infection’s spread. Health officials around the globe have been expecting more cases and deaths, though the dramatic increase in the tally may raise fears that the outbreak is worse than initially thought. France Confirms First Two Cases of Coronavirus (3:21 p.m. ET) French Health Minister Agnès Buzyn declared two confirmed cases of the coronavirus from China. They are the first reported cases in Europe. The first case is in Bordeaux, and the other is in Paris. Buzyn said the first patient, a 48-year-old man, had returned on Jan. 22 from a trip to China that took him through Wuhan; she didn’t provide details on the Paris patient. The patient in Bordeaux was treated for symptoms the next day and hospitalized. He has been placed in an isolated room so as to not have further contacts, Buzyn told reporters at a press briefing. “We will do everything possible to keep this epidemic under control while knowing it’s possible, even probable, that there will be other cases, particularly in Europe,” she said.

China Suddenly Increases Death Toll By Over 60% As Virus Jumps To Europe - Here's a glimpse of new virus-related developments that occurred overnight.

• China announces another 15 deaths in Hubei province
• Total number of confirmed cases now 1,000+, 41 dead.
• China restricts travel for 46+ million people across 16 cities as the death toll surges.
• AFP reports that the virus has jumped to Europe, with three confirmed cases now in France.
• Two deaths have been reported outside Wuhan.
• Some residents displaying symptoms are being turned away from hospitals.
• Hospitals in Wuhan make urgent pleas for help and supplies.
• Beijing orders PLA medics to assist in Wuhan treating patients
• UK and US governments tell citizens to avoid outbreak zones.
• 63 suspected cases in US, Senator says 3 confirmed, with two reported so far in Illinois and California, and two suspected in Minnesota
• Update (1720ET): Sky News reports that France has confirmed a third case of coronavirus.
• Update: officials in France have announced a third case of coronavirus has been confirmed in the country— Sky News Breaking (@SkyNewsBreak) January 24, 2020

Update (1700ET): All day we've been watching disturbing videos of hospital hallways littered with what appear to be dead bodies, yet the death toll from the Wuhan coronavirus hasn't budged from 26 since Beijing reported the first two deaths outside Hubei yesterday. Now we know why: As we suspected, the virus has been claiming more victims. But the local authorities, who promised 'transparency' in everything virus-related, apparently felt the need to wait until 4 am local time to drop this massive bomb: Another 15 people have died in Hubei as hospitals struggle with severe shortages of nearly everything, including doctors and nurses. That brings the total number of casualties to 41. In addition, another 180 cases have been discovered in Hubei, bringing the total number of cases over 1,000.

China Locks Down 40 Million People as Anger Grows Over Virus - China is struggling to contain rising public anger over its response to a spreading coronavirus even as it took unprecedented steps to slow the outbreak, restricting travel for 40 million people on the eve of Lunar New Year. The government ordered travel agencies to suspend sales of domestic and international package tours after imposing transport curbs on cities near the center of the outbreak. The turmoil comes as the virus stymies efforts to track infected patients. While the death toll continues to rise -- and now includes someone as young as 36 -- some infected patients aren’t showing a fever, a symptom governments around the world have been using to screen for the pathogen. The pressure is rising on China as it tries to come to grips with a disease that some fear could rival SARS, which 17 years ago claimed almost 800 lives. While global experts have mostly praised efforts to contain the virus, Chinese citizens are increasingly critical and anxious as travel restrictions grow to encompass a population bigger than Australia. Beyond the restricted area at the epicenter of the outbreak, major closures took place across the country amid the health fears. Public events to mark the new year were canceled, Shanghai Disneyland announced that it was closing indefinitely, and cinema chains canceled movie screenings. The halt to activity comes during what is usually a peak period for spending, putting China’s economic stabilization at risk. “This is unprecedented in China, and maybe even in the history of modern health,” said Yanzhong Huang, director of the center for Global Health Studies at Seton Hall University in New Jersey, of the widening travel restrictions. “It’s a tremendous legal, institutional, not to mention logistical challenge.” The death toll rose to 25, even as the World Health Organization stopped short of calling the virus a global health emergency. The number of confirmed cases in mainland China rose to more than 800 as of Jan. 23, the National Health Commission said in a statement. At least one patient is as young as 10 years old.Patients with the infection have been found in countries across Asia, including Singapore, Japan and South Korea. Outside the region, the U.S. has reported one case. Chinese tourists spent $130 billion overseas in 2018, so the restriction on package tours could have significant economic ramifications elsewhere.

"It's Like Cancelling Christmas" - Beijing Scraps Lunar New Year Festivities Amid Virus Outbreak -- The 'Year of the Rat' is starting not with a bang, but with a whimper. Thanks to the rapid spread of a deadly coronavirus that has confounded China's public health officials and triggered massive quarantine operations intended to seal off at least three cities from the rest of the country (and world), Beijing has joined three other Chinese cities in cancelling Lunar New Year celebrations.CNBC's Eunice Yoon reports that all public gatherings and activities have been cancelled, citing officials from Beijing's tourism bureau.Beijing joins Wuhan, Zhejiang, Macau in canceling #LunarNewYear celebrations. #China capital’s culture & tourism bureau says all public gathering activities, incl. traditional temple fairs, are off. (Holiday is normally major consumer spending time. #WuhanCoronavirus) @TheDomino— Eunice Yoon (@onlyyoontv) January 23, 2020Yoon tweeted that she was surprised when Wuhan cancelled its New Year's festivities, even though it's the epicenter of the virus. The fact that Beijing has followed suit is nothing short of extraordinary, and serves to underscore just how out-of-hand things have gotten with this virus.When Wuhan canceled #LNY festivities I thought that was like the West cancelling Christmas. Didn’t think Beijing would follow suit. https://t.co/LK1OGpRS1f— Eunice Yoon (@onlyyoontv) January 23, 2020China's state railway operator is offering full refunds to any Chinese impacted by cancellations.#China State Railway Group, country’s train operator, says it is now offering full refunds for all trip cancellations nationwide . #LunarNewYear is the biggest travel period as Chinese go home for the traditional holiday. But #WuhanCoronavirus making travelers nervous.— Eunice Yoon (@onlyyoontv) January 23, 2020 Film industry executives have postponed the release of all seven Chinese films that were set to debut during the New Year holiday.

Lunar New Year means everything in China. Canceling celebrations is a massive deal – CNN - It's the most celebratory time of the year in China -- but in many cities, festivities have been called off. Saturday marks the first day of the Lunar New Year, also known in China as Spring Festival. It's a time when families gather, often traveling huge distances to go home. Revelers gorge on banquets, give each other packets of money known as "hong bao," wear the lucky color red, and set off firecrackers to scare off the legendary half-dragon, half-lion monster "Nian" who comes out of hiding during Lunar New Year. But this year, the festive season has become a season of fear. At a time when people would normally be enjoying New Year festivities, China is experiencing a coronavirus outbreak. In the six weeks since the outbreak began in the central city of Wuhan, 26 people have died and 830 people have fallen ill in mainland China from the virus, which is similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). Wuhan -- and several surrounding cities -- are in partial lockdown. Authorities in Beijing have canceled all large-scale Lunar New Year celebrations, including traditional fairs and celebrations around temples. And there's other things that threaten to put a dampener on the holiday period, which lasts for 15 days. Shanghai Disneyland has temporarily closed its doors. Seven blockbuster movies that were set to hit theaters this weekend have been canceled or postponed -- a big deal given the holiday period is usually a huge draw for moviegoers. Major New Year's celebrations have also been canceled in the special administrative regions of Macao and Hong Kong, which have each reported two coronavirus cases. It's hard to overstate the significance of this. Lunar New Year is to China what the Christmas-New Year holiday period is to the United States -- except China's 1.4 billion population is more than four times that of the US.

Hong Kong declares virus emergency for coronavirus, first cases appear in Australia - Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam on Saturday declared a virus emergency in the city of 7.3 million, extending school cancellations until Feb. 17 and canceling all official visits to mainland China. Lam announced a package of measures aimed at limiting the Asian financial hub’s connections to mainland China. Flights and high speed train journeys between Hong Kong and the Chinese city of Wuhan will be halted, and annual official Lunar New Year celebrations for the city have been scrapped. Hong Kong health authorities have confirmed five cases of the deadly coronavirus, all of which have been traced back to Wuhan, a city of 11 million where the virus was first detected. An additional 122 people in the Hong Kong are being treated for potentially having the disease, the health authorities said. China has quarantined three cities in an effort to contain the disease’s spread ⁠— encompassing a total population of some 35 million people. Major tourist spots including Shanghai Disney are closing until further notice, and Starbucks and McDonalds announced temporary closures of their chains in the province of Hubei, which houses Wuhan. The flu-like coronavirus, first identified on Dec. 31, has killed at least 41 people in China and infected more than 1,300 worldwide. Fears over the disease’s impact on the global economy sent stocks falling on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing down 170 points. The World Health Organization (WHO) has so far declined to declare the disease a global health emergency, saying it needs more data. The virus is currently spreading through human-to-human contact and in medical settings, the organization said. Australia confirmed its first four cases of the virus on Saturday and expects more, its health authorities said, as the country is a popular destination for Chinese tourists. The infected patients are three men who traveled to Australia from China ⁠— two who traveled from Wuhan to Sydney and one in Melbourne who had also been in Wuhan. All three, aged 53, 43 and 35, are reported to be in stable condition.

No Chinese Allowed - Hysteria Grips Asia As Millions Travel Amid Viral Outbreak -- On Wednesday, health officials in China once again announced a sharp increase in the number of reported cases of the mysterious new coronavirus that is now confirmed to have caused at least nine deaths, as we reported last night.As hundreds of millions of Chinese leave the country for vacation destinations abroad - all part of what the NYT described as the largest human migration on Earth - the hysteria has reached a fever pitch.In Japan, one shopkeeper in the mountain town of Hakone (a popular vacation destination) has been heavily criticized for hanging a sign outside his door reading 'no Chinese allowed'. The full message displayed on the sign (pictured below) reads: "No Chinese are allowed to enter the store...I do not want to spread the virus." According to the SCMP, the as-yet-unidentified owner of the confectionery store told the Asahi newspaper that he used a translation application to write the message in Chinese, adding, "I want to protect myself from the virus and I don’t want Chinese people to enter the store."Japanese tourism officials apologized for the shopkeepers' actions after he was roundly criticized on social media.Shin Hae-bong, a professor of law at Aoyama Gakuen University, said the store owner was not breaking the law, as Japan doesn't have any laws against discrimination on the books.And while Chinese tourists could try to take him to court, that would take some time.

CDC confirms second US case of coronavirus and is monitoring dozens of other potential cases - U.S. health officials said Friday they diagnosed a second patient with the China coronavirus — a Chicago woman who returned from Wuhan with the infection, and they are monitoring dozens of other potential cases here. There are 63 cases being monitored in the U.S. that stretch across 22 states, including the first patient in Washington state and the new case in Illinois, said Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. Officials said the new patient, a woman in her 60s, is doing well and is in stable condition. She remains isolated in a hospital as a precaution, U.S. health officials said on a conference call with reporters. The Illinois patient traveled to China in late December and began experiencing symptoms when she returned to the U.S. last week, officials said. She did not have symptoms while flying, they said. “She was not symptomatic when flying. And based on what we know now about this virus, our concern for transmission before symptoms develop is low, so that is reassuring,” Dr. Allison Arwady, Chicago’s public health commissioner, said on the call. Upon returning to the U.S., the patient had very limited movement from outside her home and did not use public transportation or attend any large gatherings, they said. The patient began to feel unwell a few days after completing her trip and alerted her doctor. “CDC believes the immediate risk to the U.S. public is low at this time, but the situation continues to evolve rapidly,” Messonnier said, adding that there is likely to be more cases in coming days. “We have our best people working on this problem.”

China coronavirus: Death toll rises as disease spreads - The death toll from a newly-discovered coronavirus in China has risen to 41 on the day of the Lunar New Year.Another 15 deaths in Hubei province, where the outbreak began, were announced on Saturday.Health officials are struggling to contain the outbreak as millions of people travel for the Chinese new year, one of the most important events. Many festivities have been cancelled.There are now more than 1,200 confirmed cases in China.The virus has also spread to Europe, with three cases confirmed in France. The UK is investigating a number of suspected cases, with officials trying to trace around 2,000 people who have recently flown to the UK from Hubei province.Australia has also confirmed several cases in Melbourne and Sydney, joining a handful of countries treating patients. The coronavirus, previously unknown to science, causes severe acute respiratory infection with symptoms including a fever and cough. There is no specific cure or vaccine.Based on an earlier report of the fatalities, when just 17 were dead, most of the victims appeared to be older people, many with pre-existing medical conditions. But one of the dead in the most recent update was a doctor at a hospital in Hubei, China Global Television Network reported.

China’s Battle With the Wuhan Coronavirus is Shackled by a Toxic Relationship With Information  -In the past several weeks, a biting joke has been widely shared on Chinese social media: The new coronavirus is patriotic, so it goes, because it infected only one of China’s 33 provinces and municipalities before venturing outside of the mainland.Then, people this week woke up to official announcements of a shocking surge of confirmed new infections, and of the virus’s spread to more than a dozen provinces and municipalities. As of Thursday, there are more than 550 confirmed cases, 17 people have died and Wuhan, where the outbreak started, is on lockdown.Beyond mainland China, Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the US and Hong Kong have confirmed cases, and more countries could report cases as China’s biggest travel season gets underway: Chinese Lunar New Year.People are panicking. When a new disease is discovered, it’s undeniably hard to identify and inform the public about it quickly. Yet China is making the problem harder to solve, even though it should have learned from the SARS outbreak in 2003, when the government admitted to underreporting cases in the initial stages. Nearly 800 people died in that epidemic, which saw desperate people emptying shops for Chinese herbal medicines and vinegar that would turn out to be ineffective. That frenzy was driven by the lack of accurate information and rumors because of a vacuum in top-down communication. The idea of wei wen, or maintaining stability in China’s political system made “conceal as many as possible and keep it at the local level” a natural immediate response to a crisis like this. That approach to information might work on other kinds of issues, but not when it comes to a potential epidemic. Trying to control information in that case becomes a kind of shackle in the face of something that can progress and change swiftly beyond one’s control.

 World Health Organization: 1,320 cases of coronavirus so far - The World Health Organization (WHO) released an updated report Saturday evening on the status of the latest coronavirus outbreak. According to WHO, of the 1,320 confirmed cases worldwide, 237 of them have been reported as “severely ill.” Forty-one deaths have been reported so far, all of which occurred in China.Since its last update on Friday, the number of confirmed cases has increased by 474. The outbreaks are centered in Wuhan, China, and only two confirmed cases have been in the U.S. so far.Along with the report, WHO noted that they updated their advice page for international travel.On Saturday, it was reported that the U.S. government is preparing a charter flight this weekend to evacuate American citizens and diplomats from Wuhan.  The International Olympic Committee (IOC) announced Saturday that it is moving a qualifying event from Wuhan, China, to Amman, Jordan, over concerns about the outbreak.

Ancient never-before-seen viruses discovered locked up in Tibetan glacier - For the past 15,000 years, a glacier on the northwestern Tibetan Plateau of China has hosted a party for some unusual guests: an ensemble of frozen viruses, many of them unknown to modern science.Scientists recently broke up this party after taking a look at two ice cores from this Tibetan glacier, revealing the existence of 28 never-before-seen virus groups. Investigating these mysterious viruses could help scientists on two fronts: For one, these stowaways can teach researchers which viruses thrived in different climates and environments over time, the researchers wrote in a paper posted on the bioRxiv database on Jan. 7. "However, in a worst-case scenario, this ice melt [from climate change] could release pathogens into the environment," the researchers wrote in the study, which has not yet been peer-reviewed. If this happens, it's best to know as much about these viruses as possible, the researchers wrote.  To access the inner part of the cores, the researchers set up shop in a cold room — the thermometer was set at 23 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 5 degrees Celsius) — and used a sterilized band saw to cut away 0.2 inches (0.5 centimeters) of ice from the outer layer. Then, the researchers washed the ice cores with ethanol to melt another 0.2 inches of ice. Finally, they washed the next 0.2 inches away with sterile water. After all of this work (shaving off about 0.6 inches, or 1.5 cm of ice), the researchers reached an uncontaminated layer that they could study. This method held up even during tests in which the researchers covered the outer layer of the ice with other bacteria and viruses.  The experiment revealed 33 groups of virus genuses (also known as genera) in the ice cores. Of these, 28 were previously unknown to science, the researchers said. "The microbes differed significantly across the two ice cores," the researchers wrote in the study, "presumably representing the very different climate conditions at the time of deposition." "We are very far from sampling the entire diversity of viruses on Earth,"

Pain, cancer, death: Michigan families devastated by toxic chemicals in their water - In the years before 2017, Sandy Wynn-Stelt and her husband had suspicions about the water they drew from a well on their House Street property in the Michigan town of Belmont. She attributed the bad taste to it being well water, but the “weird film” on their morning coffee was difficult to explain. By June 2017, state officials alerted her that PFAS from a nearby, decades-old dump belonging to Wolverine World Wide, a shoe giant best known for the Hush Puppy brand, had contaminated their well. Tests found shocking levels. The Environmental Protection Agency’s PFAS advisory water limit is 70 parts per trillion (ppt). Health officials found levels in the well as high as 90,000 ppt. Wynn-Stelt told the Guardian she now suspects the PFAS-laden product Wolverine uses to make its shoes water and stain resistant was behind that weird film. “I now know it was probably Scotchgard,” she said. Wynn-Stelt and her neighbors in this small west Michigan community are among the PFAS crisis’s human toll – those suffering the horrors that await humans with too much of the toxic chemical in their bodies. PFAS, or per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, are a class of about 5,000 fluorinated compounds dubbed “forever chemicals” because they don’t naturally break down and there’s no known way to destroy them. They’re found in everything from food packaging to clothing to eyeliner to firefighting foam. The chemicals are also strongly linked to cancer, low birth weight, autoimmune disorders, thyroid issues, and a range of other serious diseases. By the time Wynn-Stelt learned of the contamination, it was too late. She and her husband, Joe Stelt, had been drinking dangerous levels of PFAS for years, and Stelt had died from liver cancer in March 2016. The level of PFAS in Wynn-Stelt’s blood soared to 750 times that of the national average. She now suffers from recurrent thyroid problems and developed gout, and more serious issues are likely. She has been left “scared to death” and overwhelmed. “I’m sitting here full of this stuff and not knowing what it’s going to do to me five years, 10 years from now,” she said. “I lost my husband, my home is worth nothing. I couldn’t give it away this close to a toxic dump … or after they dumped toxic waste on my land.”

U.S. drinking water widely contaminated with 'forever chemicals': environment watchdog - (Reuters) - The contamination of U.S. drinking water with man-made “forever chemicals” is far worse than previously estimated with some of the highest levels found in Miami, Philadelphia and New Orleans, said a report on Wednesday by an environmental watchdog group.The chemicals, resistant to breaking down in the environment, are known as perfluoroalkyl substances, or PFAS. Some have been linked to cancers, liver damage, low birth weight and other health problems. The findings here by the Environmental Working Group (EWG) show the group's previous estimate in 2018, based on unpublished U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) data, that 110 million Americans may be contaminated with PFAS, could be far too low. “It’s nearly impossible to avoid contaminated drinking water from these chemicals,” said David Andrews, a senior scientist at EWG and co-author of the report. The chemicals were used in products like Teflon and Scotchguard and in firefighting foam. Some are used in a variety of other products and industrial processes, and their replacements also pose risks. Of tap water samples taken by EWG from 44 sites in 31 states and Washington D.C., only one location, Meridian, Mississippi, which relies on 700 foot (215 m) deep wells, had no detectable PFAS. Only Seattle and Tuscaloosa, Alabama had levels below 1 part per trillion (PPT), the limit EWG recommends. In addition, EWG found that on average six to seven PFAS compounds were found at the tested sites, and the effects on health of the mixtures are little understood. “Everyone’s really exposed to a toxic soup of these PFAS chemicals,” Andrews said. In 34 places where EWG’s tests found PFAS, contamination had not been publicly reported by the EPA or state environmental agencies.

 PFAS contamination found at Detroit-area plating company site leaking cancer causing chemicals - Michigan state environmental officials have revealed that tests near the site of a three-year toxic chemical leak at a Madison Heights industrial facility show PFAS contamination of surface water along with previously established hexavalent chromium contamination of the ground water.The Detroit News reported on January 17 that the Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes and Energy (EGLE) had tested the storm sewers and Bear Creek near the location of the shuttered Electro-Plating Services and found the presence of PFAS contamination. PFAS (perfluorinated alkylated substances or polyfluoroalkyl substances) are a group of synthetic chemicals associated with stain repellent and polishes, paints and coatings manufacturing going back to the 1940s. Also known as “forever chemicals,” some PFAS compounds are no longer made in the US because of their persistence, toxicity and widespread occurrence in the general population and wildlife.The chemical leak in Madison Heights, Michigan that was spotted by motorists on December 20 has now been found to contain toxic PFAS compoundsThe well-known manufacturers of PFAS are 3M and Dupont in their nonstick surface products such as Scotchgard, Teflon and food wrappers. In recent years, major class action lawsuits have been filed and won against these and other companies in Ohio, Minnesota and New Jersey related to PFAS-contaminated drinking water and the adverse health effects from public exposure to the chemicals. Among the health issues associated with PFAS are high cholesterol levels, ulcerative colitis, thyroid disease, testicular cancer, kidney cancer, tumors of the liver and pancreas and pregnancy-related hypertension and preeclampsia.

The Pesticide Industry’s Playbook for Poisoning the Earth - Bee declines have been observed throughout recorded history, but the sudden, persistent and abnormally high annual hive losses had gotten so bad that the U.S. Department of Agriculture had commissioned two of the world’s most well-known entomologists — Dennis vanEngelsdorp, a chief apiary inspector in Pennsylvania, then studying at Penn State University, and Jeffrey Pettis, then working as a government scientist — to study the mysterious decline. At Le Corum, the pair discussed their findings. They had fed bees with extremely small amounts of neonicotinoids, or neonics, the most commonly used class of insecticides in the world. Neonics are, of course, meant to kill insects, but they are marketed as safe for insects that aren’t being directly targeted. VanEngelsdorp and Pettis found that even at nonlethal doses, the bees in the trial became much more vulnerable to fungal infection.   Shortly after vanEngelsdorp and Pettis revealed their findings, a number of French researchers produced a nearly identical study, feeding minute amounts of the same pesticide to bees, along with a control group. The study produced results that echoed what the Americans had found. Drifting clouds of neonicotinoid dust from planting operations caused a series of massive bee die-offs in northern Italy and the Baden-Württemberg region of Germany. Studies have shown neonicotinoids impaired bees’ ability to navigate and forage for food, weakened bee colonies, and made them prone to infestation by parasitic mites. In 2013, the European Union called for a temporary suspension of the most commonly used neonicotinoid-based products on flowering plants, citing the danger posed to bees — an effort that resulted in a permanent ban in 2018. In the U.S., however, industry dug in, seeking not only to discredit the research but to cast pesticide companies as a solution to the problem. Lobbying documents and emails, many of which were obtained through open records requests, show a sophisticated effort over the last decade by the pesticide industry to obstruct any effort to restrict the use of neonicotinoids. Bayer and Syngenta, the largest manufacturers of neonics, and Monsanto, one of the leading producers of seeds pretreated with neonics, cultivated ties with prominent academics, including vanEngelsdorp, and other scientists who had once called for a greater focus on the threat posed by pesticides. The companies also sought influence with beekeepers and regulators, and went to great lengths to shape public opinion. Pesticide firms launched new coalitions and seeded foundations with cash to focus on nonpesticide factors in pollinator decline.

 Millions Of Locusts Are Wreaking Havoc In Rajasthan And Gujarat, The Worst-Of-Its-Kind Invasion - Parts of Gujarat and Rajasthan are in the midst of a deadly invasion by millions and millions of locusts, leaving the farmers there in distress. The invasion which began in October is said to be the worst in over six decades.  According to reports, crops of some 3.6 lakh hectares in 10 districts as western Rajasthan have been damaged by the locusts so far. The Locust Warning Organization (LWO) said that the current wave of attack was by Pink locusts which are flying in from Pakistan. According to LWO, these are adult locust with very high capacity to eat and stamina for long-distance migration. “The pink coloured locust is destructive among all breeds of locust. It is 30-45 days of age with very strong wings than the usual black and yellow ones. They fly in gregarious format with speed faster among all breeds and are fatal for rabi crops in progress.”ML Gujjar, head of Locust Warning Organization told The Times of India.  A swarm of locust flying over a field in Jaisalmer, last week. Rajasthan is suffering the worst locust attack in last 60 years. This video can’t capture the magnitude. They were all over the sky, on ground. They hit the windshield like thick raindrops during a very heavy shower pic.twitter.com/q59nLQPtHh — Rajesh Kalra (@rajeshkalra) January 18, 2020

Puerto Ricans discovered a warehouse full of unused food, water, and supplies from Hurricane Maria, resulting in the firing of the island’s emergency manager  - A Ponce, Puerto Rico warehouse full of unused emergency supplies, including food, water, and cots leftover from Hurricane Maria in 2017 was discovered Saturday during an inspection following recent earthquakes in the region.Following the discovery of the unused emergency supplies, Puerto Ricans lined up outside the facility hoping to get some of the emergency supplies, including the food, water, and emergency radios according to a CNN report.A video of the warehouse tweeted by Univision journalist Jeremy Ortiz showed supplies from the warehouse being distributed following the discovery Sunday.Puerto Rico Gov. Wanda Vásquez Garced fired Carlos Acevedo, the island’s director of the Office of Emergency Management, on Saturday following the discovery, per CNN. Vásquez Garced also directed Puerto Rico Secretary of State Elmer Roman to investigate – with a 48-hour deadline – the management of the supplies, CNN reported.“There are thousands of people who made sacrifices to bring aid to the south and it’s unforgivable that resources have been kept in a warehouse,” Vásquez Garced said in a statement posted to Twitter.Acevedo has defended his management of the supplies and in a statement released through his former office said no residents had ever been denied the supplies in the warehouse, which he said included items like diapers and baby formula.Acevedo said 80 pallets of the water in the warehouse had not been distributed because they had expired, but said about 600 pallets had been distributed following 2019 Hurricanes Dorian and Karen and during a drought. Neither of the hurricanes impacted Puerto Rico to the same degree as Maria. As Insider previously reported, the 2017 hurricane, which left more than 3,000 people dead, has left longlasting devastation on the island and revealed cracks in Puerto Rico’s infrastructure.  As of August 2019, it was estimated that around 30,000 people on the island still lacked permanent roofs on their homes – two years after the deadly storm.

Indonesian Flood Victims Launch Suit Vs. Government  - Victims of  disastrous flooding in and around Indonesia’s capital of Jakarta, the result of torrential downpoursthat killed more than 60 people and displaced more than 175,000 earlier this month, launched a class action lawsuit Monday against the Jakarta government. It is the latest example of victims of extreme weather disasters turning to the courts for relief, as damage costs overwhelm and governments fail to protect citizens from the increasingly severe impacts of the climate crisis. From Australia and southeast Asia to the United States, litigation in the wake of climate disasters is on the rise. The lawsuit in Indonesia, filed Monday at the Central Jakarta District Court on behalf of 243 flood victims, is led by a group called the Jakarta Flood Victims Advocacy Team, which says the city government not only failed to provide early warning of the floods, but delivered an ineffective emergency response with help coming too late or not at all in some areas. The plaintiffs are demanding compensation of around $3 million. This is not the first time that Jakarta’s government has been sued over a flooding disaster. In 2007, a court ruled in favor of the government in a similar class action suit brought by flood victims.  The victims’ lawyers in this  lawsuit say they have evidence of government negligence in flood prevention and mitigation. But city officials told Channel News Asia that the sheer amount of rain—nearly 15 inches in one day, the largest one-day total since records began in 1886—overwhelmed pump systems and nothing could be done. Scientists say this kind of intense rainfall is to be expected with climate change, as warmer air holds more moisture.

 Malaysia Sends Plastic Waste Back to 13 Wealthy Countries, Says It Won’t Be 'the Rubbish Dump of the World' - The Southeast Asian country Malaysia has sent 150 shipping containers packed with plastic waste back to 13 wealthy countries, putting the world on notice that it will not be the world's garbage dump, as CNNreported. The countries receiving their trash back include the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Canada.The government will seek to ensure that "Malaysia does not become the garbage dump of the world," Yeo said in a lengthy Facebook post, as CNN reported.The UK was responsible for 42 of those containers. Malaysia's Environment Minister Yeo Bee Yin insisted that she is taking steps to make sure her country does not become a dumping ground for wealthy countries, as the BBC reported.The UK government said it was working with Malaysian authorities to take back the waste."We continue to work with the shipping lines and Malaysian authorities to ensure all waste is brought back as soon as possible," said an Environment Agency spokesman in the UK to the BBC. The spokesman added that the Environment Agency is "working hard to stop illegal waste exports from leaving our shores in the first place."Since China banned the import of plastic waste in 2018, shipments of plastic waste have been rerouted to Southeast Asian countries, including Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines and Malaysia. However, Malaysia and other developing countries are standing up to unwanted, imported garbage, as the APreported.In addition to the 150 containers that Malaysia sent back to their country of origin, Malaysia expects to send back another 110 containers by the middle of the year, according to Yeo, as the AP reported. Yeo added that so far success in sending back trash has removed a total of 4,120 tons of waste from Malaysian ports. Authorities there have stepped up enforcement at key ports to block smuggling of waste and closed more than 200 illegal plastic recycling factories, as the AP reported.

China To Ban All Single-Use Plastics - China, one of the world’s largest consumer of plastics, just announced its plan to ban single-use plastics across the country.. The proposal, announced Sunday aims to reduce plastic waste that has become ubiquitous in Chinese cities, promote recycling and green packaging and curb their overflowing garbage dumps. The policy will ban the production and sale of disposable plastic tableware and cotton swabs by the end of 2020. Production of household products containing microbeads will be banned by the end of 2020 and sales of such products will be banned two years after that. Single-use and non-degradable plastic bags will be banned in major Chinese cities by the end of 2020 and across the country by 2022. In addition, single-use straws will be banned by the end of 2020. By 2025 the proposal, which was introduced by both the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, would ban all single-use plastics across the country. The phased approach will allow time for China to ramp up manufacturing of biodegradable and alternate products to replace single-use plastics.The ban comes on the heels of China announcing that it’s mega-dump, the largest in the country is full 25 years ahead of schedule. The Jiangcungou landfill in Shaanxi Province is the size of 100 football fields and was built to receive 2,500 tonnes of waste per day. Instead, the landfill received 10,000 tonnes of waste per day.While China is one of the largest waste producers in the world, the United States produces more waste per person than China.

China Announces Major Phaseout of Single-Use Plastics - China, the world's No. 1 producer of plastic pollution, announced major plans Sunday to cut back on the sale and production of single-use plastics.According to the plans put forward by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, plastic bags will be banned in major cities by the end of 2020 and in smaller cities and towns by 2022, Reuters reported. (Markets selling fresh fruits and vegetables will have until 2025 to phase out the bags).The commission said it was enacting the changes in order to protect public health and "to build a beautiful China," CNN reported. The plan targets a variety of plastic types and industries over the next five years, BBC News reported. Other measures include:

• A ban on the production and sale of plastic bags less than 0.025 millimeters thick
• A ban on single-use straws in restaurants by the end of 2020
• A mandate that restaurants reduce the use of plastic items by 30 percent
• A mandate that hotels not give out free plastic items after 2025

The plan also calls for the phaseout of plastic takeaway items and shipping packages, Reuters reported. The government also announced Sunday it would work to create recycling programs and promote the use ofrecycled plastics, according to CNN. "It's the first time Beijing has recognised single-use plastics as a major problem and specified the urgent necessity to significantly reduce them," Greenpeace tweeted in response to the announcement.

 Smoke haze from Australian bushfires pose serious public health threat - Australia’s intense and prolonged bushfire crisis poses a significant public health threat, with major cities still experiencing unprecedented elevation in pollution. Health experts continue to issue warnings about the negative effects of the high levels of air pollution. Australian Medical Association (AMA) president Dr Tony Bartone warned in a press release early this month that the duration and intensity of smoke exposure presents “a new, and possibly fatal health risk that most of us have never faced before.” The denser smoke haze and longer periods that people inhale it, Bartone said, means “there is a much higher risk that previously healthy people will face developing serious illness.” The AMA also stressed that respiratory health may not be the only health issue, predicting the mental health burden from the disaster on the community will be considerable. The high level of smoke haze is unprecedented. Over the New Year period, air quality in Canberra, the national capital, reached 23 times the level considered hazardous and the worst rating to date in the city. Canberra was registered as the worst polluted city in the world, beating Sarajevo in Bosnia Herzegovina, Lahore, Pakistan and New Delhi, India. The highest rating recorded was 5,185 on New Year’s Day, more than 25 times above the minimum hazard level of 200. A few days before these high levels were reached, an elderly woman died after going into respiratory distress as she disembarked from a plane onto the tarmac at Canberra airport. At its peak the poor air quality forced most of Canberra to shut down, including many businesses, shopping centres, the city’s museums and public galleries. Postal deliveries were cancelled. Canberra Hospital closed some medical and diagnostic procedures due to smoke impacting on the facility and equipment, such as medical resonance imaging (MRI) machines. At Batemans Bay, 150 kms from Canberra, where hundreds of houses were incinerated on the New South Wales south coast, the concentration of smoke particles was nearly double that of Canberra. In Sydney, Dr Tim Senior a General Practitioner who works at a medical clinic in the western suburb of Campbelltown, located not far from serious fires to the city’s south west, described how many people attending his clinic were suffering chest pain, sore eyes, runny noses and sore throats. “Some people who don’t have a history of asthma are feeling short of breath and [are] actually having to try using inhalers for the first time.”

 Huge dust storms in Australia hit central New South Wales - Damaging winds produced by thunderstorms across central New South Wales have whipped up dust storms that turned daytime into night in some towns. The Bureau of Meteorology issued a series of severe thunderstorm warnings on Sunday evening for inland NSW with the associated winds generating massive dust clouds. Videos posted to social media showed dust storms descending on Dubbo and nearby towns that were so thick they blocked out the sun. A gust of 94 km/h was recorded at Parkes about 6.30pm while a gust of 107 km/h was recorded at Dubbo about 7.45pm, the bureau said. A bureau meteorologist, Rose Barr, said Sunday’s significant rain was concentrated across central and northern parts of the state on, and east, of the ranges. Rain and hail also lashed Victoria, sparking almost 1500 calls for assistance with more severe weather on the way as bushfires continue. The State Emergency Service received 1453 calls for assistance since Sunday morning, more than 1000 of them for building damage. Many towns on the NSW mid-north coast and the northern rivers regions received between 100mm and 180mm from 9am to 10.30pm on Sunday. In the southern part of the state, high winds saw storms race overhead quickly, resulting in lower measured falls. Downpours over the past few days have provided relief for parts of drought-stricken NSW and helped firefighters slow the spread of bushfires and build containment lines before increased fire danger mid-week. In Victoria, rain fell hardest in East Gippsland, with 56.6mm falling at Mount Elizabeth and 55mm at Mount Wellington. In Melbourne, the northeast and inner east were hit with severe thunderstorms, including giant hail. Most areas copped between 10 and 15mm of rain, while Doncaster received 27mm..

Giant dust storm, hailstones hit two fire-ravaged states in Australia - A huge dust storm has swept through Dubbo, in New South Wales' central west, with wind gusts of over 100 km/hr while Melbourne was struck by lightning and golfball-sized hailstones.  Drought and thunderstorms were a factor in the dust storm that enveloped the city of Dubbo, the Bureau of Meteorology says.  After sweeping through Dubbo last night, the storm continued towards Parkes before moving to the central ranges, affecting multiple communities.Jordan Notara from the Bureau of Meteorology said dry conditions exacerbated the storm."Drought conditions through the Central West Slopes and Plains have been very heightened … that again, coupled with some severe thunderstorms in the area yesterday afternoon, did see dust fly into the air as we saw those gust fronts occur from those storms." Melbourne was struck by lightning, rain, flash flooding, golf ball-sized hail and fire overnight as a severe thunderstorm made its way over much of the state.State Emergency Services duty officer Gerry Sheridan said the SES received 1500 callouts in 24 hours, with about 1200 coming from metropolitan Melbourne.Eastern suburbs including Glen Iris, Malvern, Warrandyte and Templestowe were hit the hardest, with Malvern SES volunteers receiving more than 450 calls for assistance in just two hours last night.Sheridan said he expected more calls to come through as people woke up to the damage.The majority of the calls concerned flooding and roof damage caused by hail smashing roof tiles and skylights. There were about 250 callouts for fallen trees, and four people across the state had to be rescued when they drove into floodwaters.

'It's heart-wrenching': 80% of Blue Mountains and 50% of Gondwana rainforests burn in bushfires At least 80% of the Blue Mountains world heritage area and more than 50% of the Gondwana world heritage rainforests have burned in Australia’s ongoing bushfire crisis. The scale of the disaster is such that it could affect the diversity of eucalypts for which the Blue Mountains world heritage area is recognised, said John Merson, the executive director of the Blue Mountains World Heritage Institute. The data is based on a Guardian Australia analysis of areas burned in New South Wales and Queensland and was confirmed by the NSW government. Guardian Australia reported in December that 20% of the Blue Mountains world heritage area had been affected by fire in the early months of the crisis. Four times that amount has now burned in what Merson said were fires of a scale that “has never happened before”. “This is totally, totally unique. As everybody keeps saying, it’s unprecedented,” he said. ] The Blue Mountains world heritage area covers one million hectares of national park and bushland and is dominated by temperate eucalypt forest. The area is renowned for the diversity of its vegetation and is home to about a third of the world’s eucalypt species. While most are fire-adapted and can regenerate, many of the species depend on long intervals between fires, Merson said. Advertisement “We had a very large fire in 2013. It’s only six years after that,” he said. “The eucalypts can be very badly reduced in diversity if fires come through in too short and intense intervals. Their numbers will virtually collapse.” He said the full impact on tree species and wildlife would not be known until more assessments were done as fire grounds became accessible. But there are concerns about the effect on breeding and feeding habitats for species including the spotted-tail quoll and the brush-tailed rock-wallaby. The fires have also burnt swamp communities that release water slowly and are important water resources. They flow into streams that feed into Sydney’s water supply and provide water for wildlife. It was revealed this week that a rescue mission by NSW fire crews was able to save the only known natural grove of Wollemi pines, so-called “dinosaur trees” that fossil records show existed up to 200m years ago. Merson said the fires had entered areas that had not burnt previously and the need for the rescue mission was indicative of the intensity of the fires in the region.   Further north, the fires have devastated parts of the Gondwana rainforest world heritage area, a collection of reserves of subtropical rainforest that span 366,500 hectares across NSW and Queensland.

Grief, frustration, guilt: the bushfires show the far-reaching mental health impacts of climate change - The bushfires that have ravaged large parts of Australia since September 2019 have resulted in a scale of destruction that will take years, if not decades, of recovery. The mammoth task that will be Australia’s national bushfire recovery has garnered financial support from numerous private donors and a $2bn commitment from the federal government, including a $76m package allocated to mental health services for affected persons. So what exactly are the expected mental health impacts of the bushfires?  To try and anticipate the direct mental health impacts from the current bushfires, one can look to research conducted after the Black Saturday bushfires of 2009. This research showed while the majority of directly affected people demonstrate resilience without indications of psychological distress, approximately one in five people in highly affected communities did experience persistent post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression and psychological distress, some four times more common than people living in unaffected communities.  Five years after the Black Saturday bushfires, rates of mental illness were still elevated. With the area burned by the current bushfires more than 30 times that of Black Saturday, it is reasonable to expect related mental health issues to increase proportionally.  However, the relationships between climate events – such as bushfires – and mental health are complex and far-reaching.Hazardous air quality has wreaked havoc on the health of Australians and has been declared a public health emergency. What is less appreciated is the impacts poor air quality may have on mental health, with links tonegative effects on cognitive function and serious mental illness. Resultant daily life inconveniences can also have psychological impacts on individuals’ sense of autonomy and control.Another lesser-known impact arises from the strong connection between nutritional status and mental health. The drought and bushfires have resulted in significant losses in the agricultural sector with soaring costs of fruit and vegetables expected. Reduced food security and nutritional intake havedemonstrated mental health impacts.The bushfire crisis has borne witness to the first Australians displaced by a disaster which is undeniably linked to climate change. Loss of homes and associated identity are major risk factors for mental illness, as are eroded social networks as communities disperse in different directions. Across Australia and internationally, the unrelenting day-by-day realities of climate change and the current bushfire crisis are raising a range of normal and expected emotions, including grief, frustration, guilt, helplessness and fear. For many, this has transitioned to a state of being overwhelmed, frequently described as eco-anxiety.The American Psychological Association defines eco-anxiety as “a chronic fear of environmental doom”. While eco-anxiety is not a diagnosable mental disorder, it can have significant impacts on a person’s wellbeing..

Australian bushfires hit coal output, hazardous conditions to return - (Reuters) - Mining giant BHP Group said on Tuesday that poor air quality caused by smoke from Australia’s bushfires is hurting coal production, as authorities said a reprieve from hazardous fire conditions would end within days. The warning from the world’s biggest miner showed how an unusually long bushfire season that has scorched an area one-third the size of Germany is damaging the world’s No. 14 economy. Australia’s tourism and insurance industries have already foreshadowed they face a A$1 billion ($687 million) hit each from the fires. Scores of fires were still burning on the east coast on Tuesday despite thunderstorms and rain in recent days. Officials in New South Wales issued a high fire danger rating on the state’s south coast, while temperatures were forecast to rise in inland parts of Victoria state and neighboring South Australia on Wednesday. Combined with strong winds, the hotter temperatures will potentially fan existing bushfires and spark new ones into life, leading officials to declare “extreme fire danger” in some areas. “Tomorrow is real for us, extremely real,” Victorian Emergency Management Commissioner Andrew Crisp told reporters in Melbourne. BHP said smoke and dust from bushfires had reduced air quality at its energy coal mines in New South Wales state, and if the deterioration continued “then operations could be constrained further in the second half of the year.” The company later added in an emailed statement that operations had been affected by machines operating more slowly due to reduced visibility, while some staff had taken leave to protect their property from the fires. The fierce bushfires in Australia’s east have killed 29 people and millions of animals, destroyed more than 2,500 homes and razed 11 million hectares (27 million acres) of wilderness since September. The crisis follows three years of drought that experts have linked to climate change.

 Australian minister claims PM Scott Morrison has led ‘historically unprecedented’ bush fire effort -The Australian prime minister has received praise for his leadership in tackling devastating bush fires that have flared for months. Protestors marched across most of Australia’s state capital cities earlier this month, calling for Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s resignation and slamming the government’s stance on climate change. Morrison has also been forced to apologize to Australians for initially refusing to cut short an overseas family holiday in the U.S. state of Hawaii while the bush fires raged. His approval rating has taken a huge hit amid the crisis. Speaking to CNBC at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on Thursday, Australian Finance Minister Mathias Cormann said in spite of the anger, the country’s Prime Minister had “led a historically unprecedented national bush fire response effort.” Asked whether the crisis would provoke a change in the Australian government’s environmental policies, Cormann said the bush fires and climate policies were “two different issues.”

Climate change pushing Australia's platypus towards extinction: researchers - Prolonged drought and other effects of climate change are pushing Australia's unique platypus population towards extinction, scientists warned in a study published Monday. The river-dwelling animal has already disappeared from up to 40 percent of its historical range on Australia's east coast due to the drought, land clearing, pollution and building of dams, which fragment their habitat, the researchers said. They predicted that if the current threats persist, platypus numbers will fall another 47-66 percent over the next 50 years. If projections about worsening climate change are taken into account, the numbers of the duck-billed, egg-laying mammal could plummet up to 73 percent by 2070, they wrote. The platypus is listed as "near threatened" by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. But the scientists from the University of New South Wales' Centre for Ecosystem Science said damage to river systems caused by years of little rainfall and high temperatures had worsened prospects for the animal. “These dangers further expose the platypus to even worse local extinctions, with no capacity to repopulate areas," said Gilad Bino, lead author of the study. The scientists said there is an "urgent need" for a national risk assessment to determine if the platypus should be downgraded to "vulnerable" status and to lay out conservation steps "to minimise any risk of extinction”. The platypus, which along with four species of echidna are the only mammals that lay eggs, is one of the world's strangest animals, with the bill of a duck, tail of a beaver, otter-like feet and a venomous spur on its hind leg.

Australians suffer violent hailstorms, flash floods and ongoing fires - Tragedy struck again this week, with three volunteer American firefighters losing their lives when the Lockheed C-130 Hercules waterbomber they crewed crashed on Thursday in southern New South Wales (NSW). The cause is still under investigation. The body of a 59-year-old man was found in his burnt-out home on Friday in the south coast town of Bodalla, while six volunteer NSW firefighters were injured when their vehicle overturned. The confirmed national death toll from the fire crisis now stands at 33. Over 2,500 homes have been destroyed and an estimated 12 million hectares of land has been affected. Even as 100 fires continue to burn, severe thunderstorms wreaked havoc across eastern Australia this week, with heavy rain, gale-force winds and hailstorms causing damage to thousands of homes, businesses, and vehicles in Victoria, the Australian Capital Territory (ACT), NSW and Queensland. Although the heavy rainfall was welcomed by farmers and firefighters, it was not nearly enough to end the protracted drought afflicting much of the country. As with the bushfires, this week’s storms have exposed the inadequacies of Australia’s largely volunteer-dependent emergency services. In many cases personnel and equipment had to be withdrawn from fighting fires to respond. A violent storm hit the national capital Canberra on Monday, battering the city with golf ball-sized hail. The windscreens of thousands of cars were smashed and hundreds of homes suffered damage. At the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), 65 glasshouses where experimental crops were being grown were shattered, ruining years of research. Hail damage and flash flooding caused the closure of major institutions, including the National Archives, National Museum of Australia, Old Parliament House, and the Australian National University. The ACT Emergency Services Agency (ESA) fielded more than 1,900 calls for assistance, more than double the previous record for a single event, and more than three times the annual average. Victoria had its wettest two-day period in many months on Sunday and Monday, with some areas receiving more than 100 millimetres. More than 55 millimetres fell in parts of the fire-ravaged East Gippsland region, providing some amount of relief for firefighters. In Melbourne, the state capital, parts of the Monash freeway and the Princes highway—major thoroughfares connecting the south-eastern suburbs with the central business district—were brought to a standstill by hail and flash flooding.

Counting the cost of Australia’s raging inferno - Australia’s economy will take years to recover from the bushfires that have devastated four states since September, with the damage bill already estimated at A$5 billion (US$3.4 billion) and the worst of the blazes still to come. There could also be a significant political cost, as Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s indecisive response and adamant refusal to acknowledge a climate change link to the fires have seen his popularity and support nosedive. Twenty-eight people have been killed and at least 2,300 homes destroyed as the fires burned through 8.4 billion hectares (50,000 square kilometers) of mostly rural land in New South Wales (NSW), Victoria, South Australia and Queensland — a geographical area bigger than the entire territory of Denmark. Losses will continue to rise, as the peak period of bushfire activity does not start until February, the hottest month in southeastern Australia. It is expected to drag on well into March unless there is rainfall; some areas have had heavy falls in recent days, but not enough to end the fiery crisis. With insurance claims of A$1 billion ($690 million) already submitted for damage to private property, Westpac bank’s economics unit has calculated that the fires will trim between 0.2-0.5% off growth in 2020 alone.“That would put the cost in terms of insured and uninsured losses at around $5 billion,” the bank said in a report, noting that the total bill from disasters is generally about double the losses from insured claims. AMP Capital earlier forecast economic losses amounting to 0.25-1% of gross domestic product (GDP), or a range of A$3-13 billion ($2-9 billion), which could give Australia zero or even negative growth this quarter. To date the most damaging bushfires were a 2009 inferno that ripped through southeastern Victoria, costing the state A$4.4 billion ($3 billion). Westpac noted that affected areas this time, mostly on the south coast of NSW and the same region of Victoria burned out a decade ago, account for only 1% of the economy. However, they are major producers of fruit and vegetables, beef, seafood, timber and wine. They are also big tourism areas.

NSW poised to privatise state forests to raise $1bn for infrastructure projects - The New South Wales government is poised to privatise the state’s plantation forests as part of a fresh round of sale and lease arrangements in 2020 to fund ambitious infrastructure projects. The second half of Ausgrid, the second half of WestConnex and some water assets are also in the government’s sights. The long-term lease of Forestry Corporation’s 230,000 hectares of softwood plantations is expected to be one of the first assets off the block in the new year. The state forests produce about 14% of Australia’s timber, including much of the supply for the housing industry. The transaction, expected to raise $1bn, is likely to be announced early in the new year and will involve a long-term lease of land and the right to grow timber, rather than the sale of land. The bank and financial services company UBS has undertaken a scoping study in the past three months while the accountancy firm KPMG has worked on the tax implications and the law firm Minter Ellison on the legal structures. The sale will be controversial in regional areas such as Bathurst, Oberon, Bega, Tumut and the north-west, where large softwood plantations are important employers. Forestry Corporation also manages 34,000 hectares of hardwood timber plantations and has stewardship of about 2m hectares of coastal native forests, cypress forests and red gum forests. These are not proposed to be part of the deal. But their future could be uncertain once the money-making softwood division is sold or leased. Green groups want greater protections for native state forests, particularly after this summer’s fires, which have put pressure on habitats for koalas and other native animals.

Madacascar Is Planting 60 Million Trees in Ambitious Drive Inspired by Its President - Madagascar has embarked on its most ambitious tree-planting drive yet, aiming to plant 60 million trees in the coming months. The island nation celebrates 60 years of independence this year, and the start of the planting campaign on Jan. 19 marked one year since the inauguration of President Andry Rajoelina, who has promised to restore Madagascar's lost forests."The government has the challenge of making Madagascar a green island again. I encourage the people to protect the environment and reforest for the benefit of the future generations," Rajoelina told the hundreds of people who attended the launch in Ankazobe district, 100 kilometers (60 miles) northwest of the capital, Antananarivo. In a span of a few hours, about 1 million trees were planted over 500 hectares (1,235 acres), according to the environment ministry — an area one-and-a-half times the size of New York City's Central Park. Madagascar, the oldest island in the world and the fourth-largest, spanning 59 million ha (146 million acres), is home to an astounding range of plant and animal life. Between 2001 and 2018, it lost about one-fifth of its tree cover, according to Global Forest Watch, driven primarily by the expansion of shifting agriculture, known locally as tavy. The destruction of Madagascar's forests could sound the death knell for many of its endemic species, found nowhere else on the planet. Months of planning and a massive nationwide effort to amass seeds and populate nurseries culminated in the highly publicized launch. It saw participation from NGOs, schools, government ministries, and the army. Rajoelina, dressed in a T-shirt and jeans, launched the planting season by tucking a seedling into a pocket of earth. He later lent a hand to children, took selfies with babies, and was even photographed, hoe in hand, hauling dirt. But experts say the real heavy lifting to reclaim forests will come after the saplings are in the ground. "Right now, we are at the stage of planting trees, but the big question is: What is next? How to protect those young trees, so we don't plant them in January and then destroy them in July,"

New Forests Planted Near Rivers Could Use up All the Water, Study Finds - New forests are an apparently promising way to tackle global heating: the trees absorb carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas from human activities. But there's a snag, because permanently lower river flows can be an unintended consequence. A study by scientists at the University of Cambridge, UK, has found that river flow is reduced in areas where forests have been planted − and, significantly, it does not recover over time. Rivers in some regions can disappear completely within 10 years.This, the researchers say, highlights the need to consider the impact on regional water availability, as well as the wider climate benefit of tree-planting plans."Reforestation is an important part of tackling climate change, but we need to carefully consider the best places for it. In some places, changes to water availability will completely change the local cost-benefits of tree-planting programmes", said Laura Bentley, a plant scientist in the University of Cambridge Conservation Research Institute, and first author of the report. Planting large areas of trees has been suggested as one of the best ways of reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, because trees absorb and store the gas as they grow, although uncertainties about the strategy persist. Science has known for a long time that planting trees reduces the amount of water flowing into nearby rivers, but no-one had realized how this effect changes as forests age.The Cambridge study looked at 43 sites across the world where forests have been established, and used river flow as a measure of water availability in the region. It found that within five years of planting trees, river flow had reduced by an average of 25%.  But 25 years after the trees were planted, rivers had gone down by an average of 40%, or in a few cases had dried up altogether.

Trump issues new rule replacing Obama-era waterway protections - The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced a major rollback to protections for streams and other smaller bodies of water on Thursday, saying it would institute a new rule advocated by farmers and other industry groups. The new rule would replace the already-repealed Waters of the United States rule (WOTUS), crafted under President Obama, which expanded the types of waterways protected by federal law. The Obama administration argued smaller bodies of water, even some seasonal ones caused by snowmelt, must be protected in order to stop pollution from reaching larger sources, including those used for drinking water. Critics argue the changes will eviscerate the protections guaranteed by the Clean Water Act, not just reversing Obama-era protections but setting the U.S even further back. “This is not just undoing the clean water rule promulgated by the Obama administration. This is going back to the lowest level of protection we’ve seen in the last 50 years,” Collin O’Mara, president and CEO of the National Wildlife Federation, said in a call with reporters. “This is a staggering rollback.” But President Trump touted his plans to roll back the law when speaking over the weekend to a conference of farmers‚ one of the chief adversaries of the previous administration's policy and a key part of Trump’s base. Farmers and other groups have argued that law was too far-reaching, requiring grand efforts to protect relatively small bodies of water that run through their property, ultimately subjecting large swaths of land to federal oversight. Trump’s latest rule, the Navigable Waters Protection Rule, will be implemented in the coming weeks and is likely to increase the amount of pesticides and other industrial chemicals that leach into streams, wetlands and underground water sources, leaving much environmental regulation to state and local authorities. Repealing WOTUS was a campaign promise of Trump’s, who called it “one of the most ridiculous regulations of all” when speaking at the American Farm Bureau Federation annual convention in Austin, Texas, on Sunday.

 'This Will Be the Biggest Loss of Clean Water Protection the Country Has Ever Seen': Trump Finalizes Clean Water Rule Replacement - Today, the Trump administration will finalize its replacement for the Obama-era Waters of the United States(WOTUS) rule in a move that will strip protections from more than half of the nation's wetlands and allow landowners to dump pesticides into waterways, or build over wetlands, for the first time in decades.NonePresident Donald Trump has been working to undo the 2015 rule since he took office, but his replacement goes even further, The New York Times explained. In addition to rolling back protections for some wetlands and streams that run intermittently or temporarily underground, it will also get rid of a requirement that landowners seek permits from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), which had considered permits on a case-by-case basis before 2015."This will be the biggest loss of clean water protection the country has ever seen," Southern Environmental Law Center lawyer Blan Holman told The New York Times. "This puts drinking water for millions of Americans at risk of contamination from unregulated pollution. This is not just undoing the Obama rule. This is stripping away protections that were put in place in the '70s and '80s that Americans have relied on for their health."The administration announced the repeal of the WOTUS rule, also known as the Clean Water Rule, in September of 2019. That rule had expanded the definition of "waters of the United States" under the 1972 Clean Water Act from larger bodies of water to include streams and wetlands. The rule was controversial before Trump took office. Many farmers and businesses thought it gave the federal government too much power, and court rulings had suspended it in 28 states.Trump appealed to this logic when he touted his repeal Sunday at the American Farm Bureau Federation Annual Convention and Trade Show in Austin, Texas."I terminated one of the most ridiculous regulations of all: the last administration's disastrous Waters of the United States rule," he said. "Thank you. It's gone. That was a rule that basically took your property away from you." "This is rolling back federal jurisdiction of the Clean Water Act further than it's ever been before," Vermont Law School environmental law professor Patrick Parenteau told The New York Times "Waters that have been protected for almost 50 years will no longer be protected under the Clean Water Act."

 More than 320 groups seek more time to comment on Trump environmental law changes - A coalition of more than 320 groups will ask the White House to extend its comment period on planned changes to a bedrock environmental law. President Trump this month announced the proposed changes to the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), which would allow greater industry involvement in environmental reviews of projects and reduce the role climate change plays in those assessments. On Monday, the coalition will send a letter to the White House Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) asking for the extension. "Currently, the Trump administration is offering an extremely short 60-day public comment period and mere two public hearings," said a statement from the groups. Major opponents of the changes have included environmental groups, who argue that it would allow the government to turn a blind eye when projects emit large quantities of greenhouse gases. They are also among those asking for the longer comment period. “The Trump administration is silencing the people’s voices for the sake of polluters’ profits," said Stephen Schima, Senior Legislative Counsel for Earthjustice, in the statement. "Rushed comment periods, hearings held at odd daytime hours to discourage working families from attending, and space so limited that the room fills up in five minutes – it all adds up to a concerted effort to sideline communities." "Shutting out public input on this latest egregious attack on our environmental protections adds insult to injury,” said Matthew Gravatt, deputy legislative director for Sierra Club. “Our communities will not be silenced about the threats posed by this administration’s dangerous pro-polluter agenda.” Meanwhile, proponents of the changes to NEPA have argued that the law has slowed down construction and infrastructure projects. “From Day One, my administration has made fixing this regulatory nightmare a top priority. And we want to build new roads, bridges, tunnels, highways bigger, better, faster, and we want to build them at less cost,” President Trump said this month.

Oceans are warming at the same rate as if five Hiroshima bombs were dropped in every second -  The world's oceans are now heating at the same rate as if five Hiroshima atomic bombs were dropped into the water every second, scientists have said.  A new study released on Monday showed that 2019 was yet another year of record-setting ocean warming, with water temperatures reaching the highest temperature ever recorded. An international team of 14 scientists examined data going back to the 1950s, looking at temperatures from the ocean surface to 2,000 meters deep. The study, which was published in the journal Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, also showed that the oceans are warming at an increasing speed.While the past decade has been the warmest on record for global ocean temperatures, the hottest five years ever recorded all came in the last five."The upward trend is relentless, and so we can say with confidence that most of the warming is man-made climate change," said Kevin Trenberth, distinguished senior scientist in the Climate Analysis Section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research.The study shows that while the oceans warmed steadily between 1955 and 1986, warming has accelerated rapidly in the last few decades. Between 1987-2019, ocean warming was 450% greater than during the earlier time period. Lijing Cheng, the paper's lead author and an associate professor at the International Center for Climate and Environmental Sciences at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said the ocean temperature was 0.075 degrees Celsius above the 1981-2010 average in 2019. "There are no reasonable alternatives aside from the human emissions of heat trapping gases to explain this heating," Cheng said, adding that to reach this temperature, the ocean would have taken in 228,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 -- or 228 sextillion -- joules of heat. That's equivalent to dropping roughly four Hiroshima bombs into the oceans every second over the past quarter of a century. But because the warming is speeding up, the rate at which we are dropping these imaginary bombs is getting faster than ever.

Dead Birds Washing Up by the Thousands Send a Warning About Climate Change - For almost a year, people had been reporting finding dead common murres up and down the Pacific coastline, from California to Alaska. From the summer of 2015 through the spring of 2016, about 62,000 washed ashore, part of a mass species die-off that scientists are attributing to an extreme marine heat wave. In a study published Wednesday in the journal PLOS ONE, a group of scientists from various state and federal agencies, universities and bird rescue organizations documented the die-off and concluded from the data that it was caused by a record-breaking ocean heat wave in 2014 through 2016 that triggered systemic changes throughout the ocean ecosystem.The authors estimate that 1 million common murres died during the period, an event they called "unprecedented and astounding."The common murres weren't the only species to experience mass die-offs during this time—tufted puffins, Cassin's auklets, sea lions and baleen whales died, too. But what the scientists document is by far the largest die-off, one they say was caused by disturbances rippling across the food web, a result in part of ocean warming from climate change. "When I heard the numbers of birds being killed in California and Oregon and Washington and many areas of Alaska, as that unfolded, it was biblical to me," said John Piatt, a biologist with the U.S. Geological Survey who was the lead author of the new paper on the bird deaths and has been studying common murres for 40 years. "This bird doesn't fail unless there aren't enough high density patches of food to serve their high demand needs. And that's rare," Piatt said. As reports came in from up and down the Pacific coast, Piatt was perplexed. Common murres are known for their ability to adapt. "Murres are the ultimate predator—they're extremely well adapted, they can dive to 200 meters, and they live on the Continental Shelf," he said. "Anywhere along there is their domain. And they're the fastest flying sea bird." Yet murres were washing in with the tides—sometimes 10 birds at a time, sometimes 100. indicated a danger for human health. Were the birds carrying a disease? A toxin? Carcasses were shipped to the U.S. Geological Survey's National Wildlife Health Center in Madison, Wisconsin. "They did all sorts of analyses for viral and bacterial diseases, toxins in the tissues," Parrish said. "We're trying to eliminate smoking guns. But all of those things—not found. No parasites, nothing we can hang our hat on. But there was lots of emaciation." The first question: Could the fish that the murres eat have moved elsewhere in response to the warmer water?  "But the thing is, murres can go anywhere in a matter of hours," Piatt said. The researchers also looked into whether overfishing could be the answer, but that didn't hold water, either. Next, they investigated whether the fish were surviving from egg to larvae. Some juvenile stock were failing, sure, but not enough to explain the large number of starving birds.  Piatt started looking from the bottom up: He found that as the water had warmed, phytoplankton and zooplankton, the smallest ocean organisms that provide the base of the food web, had changed.

Emissions of potent greenhouse gas rises, contradicting reports of huge reductions - Despite reports that global emissions of the potent greenhouse gas hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) were almost eliminated in 2017, an international team of scientists, led by the University of Bristol, has found atmospheric levels growing at record values. Over the last two decades, scientists have been keeping a close eye on the atmospheric concentration of a hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) gas, known as HFC-23. This gas has very few industrial applications. However, levels have been soaring because it is vented to the atmosphere during the production of another chemical widely used in cooling systems in developing countries. Scientists are concerned, because HFC-23 is a very potent greenhouse gas, with one tonne of its emissions being equivalent to the release of more than 12,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide. Starting in 2015, India and China, thought to be the main emitters of HFC-23, announced ambitious plans to abate emissions in factories that produce the gas. As a result, they reported that they had almost completely eliminated HFC-23 emissions by 2017. In response to these measures, scientists were expecting to see global emissions drop by almost 90 percent between 2015 and 2017, which should have seen growth in atmospheric levels grind to a halt. Now, an international team of researchers has shown that concentrations increased, setting an all-time record in 2018. The paper is published today in Nature Communications. Had these HFC-23 emissions reductions been as large as reported, the researchers estimate that the equivalent of a whole year of Spain's CO2 emissions could have been avoided between 2015 and 2017. Our study finds that it is very likely that China has not been as successful in reducing HFC-23 emissions as reported. However, without additional measurements, we can't be sure whether India has been able to implement its abatement program." Had these HFC-23 emissions reductions been as large as reported, the researchers estimate that the equivalent of a whole year of Spain's CO2 emissions could have been avoided between 2015 and 2017.

Ozone Layer Recovery Is Being Undermined by US Pollution  -  While the ozone layer is rebounding overall, scientists have observed decreasing levels of the gas in certain areas. Chemicals used for everything from fracking to cooling appear to be the culprits, according to comments the nonprofit Environmental Investigation Agency submitted to the Environmental Protection Agency in December. The chemical pollution, some of which is coming from the U.S., EPA records show, has already delayed progress on the ozone layer. The resulting setback appears to be worse in highly populated southern latitudes, where it could cause the most damage. Continued emissions of the chemicals could delay the healing of the ozone layer by up to 30 years, according to a 2017 article published in Nature Communications.  Despite the threat, the EPA has not considered impacts on ozone in initial phases of its assessment of 14 chemicals with ozone-depleting potential now being conducted under the Toxic Substances Control Act. Asked about the decision, an EPA spokesperson wrote in an email that “because ozone depletion risks are adequately assessed and effectively managed under the Clean Air Act, EPA does not expect to include ozone-depletion potential in risk evaluations” of three of the chemicals. The agency response did not address the other 11 chemicals under scrutiny.  Both the Clean Air Act and the Montreal Protocol do regulate some of these short-lived chemicals that erode the ozone layer. But they make an exception when the chemicals are byproducts or used as feedstock for making other products, a loophole that may explain why some of them are still accumulating in the atmosphere more than 30 years after the treaty took effect.  Carbon tetrachloride, for instance, a potent ozone-depleting chemical that was used to make CFCs, is tightly regulated under the treaty. Nevertheless, between 2012 and 2018, U.S. companies released 1.3 million pounds of the chemical into the air. Among the biggest emitters are a Dover Chemical plant in Ohio and two plants in Geismar, Louisiana — one owned by Rubicon and the other byOccidental — according to an analysis of EPA data by the consulting firmMaterial Research. Levels of another ozone-depleting chemical, methylene chloride, are also on the rise, climbing 8 percent per year between 2000 and 2012, according to the most recent analysis.  U.S. companies, including the SI Group, 3V Sigma, and CR Bard, all of which are based in South Carolina, released 19.8 million pounds of methylene chloride into the air between 2012 and 2018, according to company reports to the EPA.

 Ozone-Depleting Substances May Have Driven Arctic Warming, Study Finds - The world awakened to the hole in the ozone layer in 1985, which scientists attributed it to ozone depleting substances. Two years later, in Montreal, the world agreed to ban the halogen compounds causing the massive hole over Antarctica. Research now shows that those chemicals didn't just cut a hole in the ozone layer, they also warmed up the Arctic. Now a new study has found that those ozone depleting substances, which were developed in the 20s and 30s were responsible for roughly one-third of global warming from 1955 to 2005 and half of Arctic warming and sea-ice loss during that period. The study was published in the journal Nature Climate Change. The ozone-depleting substances (ODS), which includes chlorofluorocarbons, were widely used as refrigerants, solvents and propellants and became ubiquitous in the 1950s. They acted as a strong addition to carbon dioxide gas, the most pervasive greenhouse gas. Unlike carbon dioxide, the halogen compounds that are ozone-depleting substances are entirely man-made, so they did not exist in the atmosphere before they were introduced in industrial and domestic products. Since the ban on them was implemented in 1989, their deleterious impacts have started to fade as they slowly dissolve from the atmosphere, according to a press release from the Earth Institute at Columbia University.While most research has focused on what these substances do to the ozone, this is the first study that ties ozone-depleting substances to the unprecedented rate of Arctic warming, according to Nature. "While the dominant role of carbon dioxide is undisputed, another important set of anthropogenic [greenhouse gasses] was also being emitted over the second half of the twentieth century: ozone-depleting substances," researchers wrote in Nature Climate Change, as Newsweek reported.

 Evidence that an ice-free Arctic Ocean allowed ancient CO2 and methane emissions -  Deep in a cave in Siberia, Israeli, Russian and British scientists have identified evidence of periodic losses of carbon from the permafrost. And the unexpected link is not simply with peak periods of bygone global warming, but with an ice-free Arctic Ocean.The escape into the atmosphere of prodigious volumes of methane and carbon dioxide from the thawing soils is in step not with average planetary temperature rise, but with long periods when the Arctic Ocean is free of ice every summer. Fact one: about one quarter of land in the northern hemisphere is now, and has been for much of the last half million years, permanently frozen, and with it about twice as much atmospheric carbon – in the form of peat and preserved vegetation – as there exists freely in the planetary atmosphere. Fact two: in the most recent decades, sea ice has been both thinning and dwindling rapidly, and the polar ocean could by 2050 become almost entirely ice-free in the summer months.“This discovery about the behaviour of the permafrost suggests that the expected loss of Arctic sea ice will accelerate melting of the permafrost presently found across much of Siberia” And this twist in the tale of a rapidly-warming Arctic is preserved in stalagmite formations in a cave deep beneath the rim of the Arctic Circle in Siberia. The chronology of stalagmite and stalactite development can be established precisely by the pattern of uranium and lead isotope deposits in formations, built up imperceptibly by the steady drip of water from, and through, the soils far above.That is, the speleothems – a geologist’s catch-all word for both stalactite and stalagmite – form fastest when the permafrost has thawed. And unexpectedly, the periods of thaw did not match the peaks of interglacial warming during the last 1.35 million years. They did however coincide with periods when the Arctic was ice-free in the summer. “This discovery about the behaviour of the permafrost suggests that the expected loss of Arctic sea ice in the future will accelerate melting of the permafrost presently found across much of Siberia,” said Gideon Henderson of the University of Oxford, and one of the authors of a new study in the journal Nature.

U.S. appeals court tosses children’s climate lawsuit - Judges for the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals “reluctantly” ruled in favor of the government in the kids’ climate case today, thwarting the young people’s historic legal fight while acknowledging the “increasingly rapid pace” of climate change. The arguments presented by the 21 young people in Juliana v. United States proved too heavy a lift for Circuit Judges Mary Murguia and Andrew Hurwitz, who found that the kids failed to establish standing to sue.  “The central issue before us is whether, even assuming such a broad constitutional right exists, an Article III court can provide the plaintiffs the redress they seek—an order requiring the government to develop a plan to 'phase out fossil fuel emissions and draw down excess atmospheric CO2,'" Hurwitz, an Obama appointee, wrote in an opinion issued this morning. “Reluctantly, we conclude that such relief is beyond our constitutional power. Rather, the plaintiffs’ impressive case for redress must be presented to the political branches of government.” California District Judge Josephine Staton dissented, writing that the youths had a right to sue the government. The panel moved to send the case back to district court for dismissal.  Our Children’s Trust attorney Julia Olson, representing the youth plaintiffs, said the constitutional right to a safe, livable climate is an intrinsic part of rights to bodily integrity, personal security and family autonomy. She argued that the courts have a long history of stepping in to compel the government to take action when faced with cases of “catastrophic infringement” of human rights (Climatewire, June 5). Ultimately, the 9th Circuit wasn’t willing to break the new ground presented by the kids’ arguments.  Juliana made it through multiple rounds of court proceedings prior to this appeal, including two at the Supreme Court. But it faltered in this most recent 9th Circuit bout—an interlocutory appeal by the government to have the kids’ case quashed before it reached trial. Today’s decision blocks the kids’ suit from proceeding to the long-awaited “trial of the century” in the U.S. District Court for the District of Oregon, though the young plaintiffs could pursue reconsideration at the 9th Circuit and the Supreme Court.

'Where Is the Hope?' After Juliana v. U.S. Lawsuit Gets Tossed by Federal Court -- An appeals court tossed out the landmark youth climate lawsuit Juliana v. United States Friday, arguing that the courts are not the place to resolve the climate crisis.  The three-judge panel on the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals agreed with the 21 young plaintiffs that the U.S. government had actively contributed to climate change by supporting a fossil-fuel based economy and that the young people had been injured by its actions, The Guardian explained. However, the majority ruled that the courts did not have the power to order a plan for government action to address the crisis, as the 12-to-23-year-old plaintiffs had requested."Reluctantly, we conclude that such relief is beyond our constitutional power," Judge Andrew D. Hurwitz wrote in the court's opinion. "Rather, the plaintiffs' impressive case for redress must be presented to the political branches of government."The decision raises the question of where young people can turn to ensure their futures are protected."The idea that their only recourse is to go to the very branches of government that are violating their rights when half of them can't even vote is a preposterous notion," the young people's lead lawyer Julia Olson toldThe New York Times.  In her dissent, Judge Josephine L. Staton agreed, criticizing her colleagues for "throw[ing] up their hands."  "Where is the hope in today's decision?" she wrote. "Plaintiffs' claims are based on science, specifically, an impending point of no return. If plaintiffs' fears, backed by the government's own studies, prove true, history will not judge us kindly. When the seas envelop our coastal cities, fires and droughts haunt our interiors, and storms ravage everything between, those remaining will ask: Why did so many do so little?" The lawsuit was filed in 2015 by the 21 plaintiffs with the support of the nonprofit Our Children's Trust, according to Climate Liability News. It argues that by supporting a fossil-fuel based economy despite evidence it was contributing to climate change, the federal government violated the public trust and the young plaintiffs' constitutional rights to life, liberty and property.

 Feminist Author Demands Germans Stop Having Babies To Save The Planet -Feminist author Verena Brunschweiger has called on Germans to stop having babies to save the planet, despite the fact that the country’s native fertility rate is already at just 1.4 children per woman.In an interview with Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung, Brunschweiger warns “we are on the brink of ecological collapse” and that the only solution is “the renunciation of one’s own reproduction.”Claiming that this topic is being kept hidden in “pro-natalist Germany,” Brunschweiger, who herself is childless, remarked,“It is…above all because of the masses of people that we have such big environmental problems. We are just too many and hardly anyone wants to limit themselves. If we were fewer people and restricted ourselves, we could save something.”Brunschweiger claimed that she felt like she was “in Saudi Arabia in the 14th century” when trying to voice her message, but that she had received support from a lot of women.The feminist is directing her message to Germans despite the fact that the country’s native fertility rate is around 1.4 children per woman, well below the necessary 2.1 replacement rate.

Climate Refugees Can’t Be Sent Back, Says UN in Landmark Decision - Refugees fleeing the impending effects of the climate crisis cannot be forced to return home, according to a new decision by the United Nations Human Rights Committee, as CNN reported. The new decision could open up a massive wave of legal claims by displaced people around the world.  The first-of-its-kind ruling opens the door for a new kind of legal claim to future protections for people whose lives and health are threatened by a warming planet and sea-level rise, according to legal experts, as The Guardian reported. The ruling is expected to have profound consequences as the impacts of the climate crisis are predicted to displace tens of millions of people.  The UN Human Rights Committee ruling started from the case of Ioane Teitiota, who applied for refugee protection from New Zealand, claiming that his life was at risk in his home country of Kiribati, which is predicted to be one of the first countries lost due to sea-level rise, as CNN reported. Kiribati is an equatorial island nation in the middle of the Pacific that spans 1.3 million square miles, but only has 310 square miles of land and roughly 110,000 people.  The committee heard Teitiota's claim that his home island South Tarawa had increased in population by nearly 50 times from 1,641 in 1947 to 50,000 in 2010 due to sea level rising, leading to other islands becoming uninhabitable. That explosion in population has led to violence and social tensions, as The Guardianreported.  Teitiota claimed that a shortage of freshwater and difficulty growing crops because of the salinity of the water posed a threat to him and his family. Further, he argued that because the island is predicted to be uninhabitable in 10 to 15 years, his life was in danger if he remained there, according to The Guardian.  The committee did not fully agree with him. It rejected his claim that he faced an imminent threat to his life. It said, "sea level rise is likely to render the republic of Kiribati uninhabitable … the timeframe of 10 to 15 years, as suggested by [Teitiota], could allow for intervening acts by the republic of Kiribati, with the assistance of the international community, to take affirmative measures to protect and, where necessary, relocate its population," according to the The Guardian. However, the committee added that New Zealand and every country would violate a person's international rights if they force them back to countries where the climate crisis poses an immediate threat, according toCNN.

Trump-Greta Showdown Looms As Climate Dominates Agenda At Davos - As 3,000 of the world's richest and most powerful people from 120 countries gather at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland this year - the event's 50th anniversary - President Trump and teen climate activist Greta Thunberg are set to cross paths again. The annual forum will host around 1,700 business leaders - including CEOs from 8 of the 10 most valuable countries in the world, according to DW. The event will run from Tuedsay through Friday, during which there will be more than 350 sessions and workshops.Thunberg, 17, is expected to once again shame world leaders (except Xi Jinping) into abandoning fossil fuel and committing taxpayer dollars to clean energy initiatives. She is slated to speak twice; once during an 8:30 a.m. panel, and again at 1 p.m. President Trump will speak at 11:30 a.m., and is expected to tout the US economy, his trade deal with China, and crack jokes about his ongoing impeachment. Thunberg is expected to arrive Monday via train, while Trump will fly in on Marine One.

Davos says it is focusing on the climate crisis, but its billionaires and world leaders are still arriving on private jets  -The World Economic Forum said on Monday, one day before the event kicks off in Davos, Switzerland, that: "The climate crisis is going to be one of the dominant themes this week." Its website prominently features Swedish teenage climate activist Greta Thunberg, who is due to appear this year after criticising world leaders and urged them to act at last year's event. "How to Save the Planet" is one of the seven "key" themes up for discussion. And the overall theme of this year's event about is "Stakeholders for a Cohesive and Sustainable World." But as the world's financial elite, political leaders, and celebrities descend on the small town, the question is whether their transport choices can at all work with what the event - and many of those leaders - say they want to achieve for the planet.  The World Economic Forum recorded more than 600 plane journeys that can be attributed to Davos in 2019 - a figure that does not "take into account public figures such as presidents and prime ministers." "There were around 60 of these but they tend to use military planes and land at a nearby military base, which makes it impossible to get flight numbers," Davos said.

Thunberg slams climate change inaction as Davos awaits Trump - Swedish teen activist Greta Thunberg on Tuesday slammed global inaction on climate change in front of the world's top business leaders, as the annual Davos forum faced up to the perils of global warming while bracing for an address from US President Donald Trump. The 50th meeting of the World Economic Forum in the Swiss Alps resort got under way seeking to meet head-on the dangers to both the environment and economy from the heating of the planet. Trump, who has repeatedly expressed scepticism about climate change, is set to give the first keynote address of Davos 2020 on Tuesday morning, on the same day as his impeachment trial opens at the Senate in Washington. But before his appearance, Thunberg underlined the message that has inspired millions around the world -- that governments are failing to wake up to the reality of climate change. "We are all fighting for the environment and climate. If you see it from a bigger perspective, basically nothing has been done. It will require much more than this. This is just the very beginning," she said. Speaking calmly and with a wry smile, Thunberg acknowledged that her campaign which began with school strikes had attracted huge attention without yet achieving change. "There is a difference between being heard to actually leading to something," she said. "I am not the person who should complain about not being heard," she said to appreciative laughter. "I am being heard all the time. But the science and the voice of the young people are not at the centre of the conversation," she added.

Ivanka Trump praises Greta Thunberg for her climate change advocacy - Ivanka Trump cheered teenage climate change crusader Greta Thunberg for calling attention to the dire issue in a statement going against President Trump’s criticism of the young activist, according to a report. The president’s daughter, who is also his senior adviser, was asked at the World Economic Forum on Wednesday for her take on the 17-year-old — who a day earlier lambasted world leaders for not doing enough to stop the global crisis. “I’m not going to criticize anyone who’s bringing their energy and voice,” Ivanka Trump said at the forum’s press briefing in Davos, Switzerland, according to Fox News.. “That’s not my style. I think she’s elevated awareness and that’s a positive thing.” On Tuesday, as President Trump arrived in Davos, Thunberg gave a speech stressing the urgency of taking action to combat climate change. ”We need to start listening to the science, and treat this crisis with the importance it deserves,” she said. “I wonder, what will you tell your children was the reason to fail and leave them facing the climate chaos you knowingly brought upon them?”

Mnuchin says Greta Thunberg can tell us what to do ‘after she goes and studies economics in college’— U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin sharply criticized the financial credentials of Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg on Thursday, saying the 17-year-old should study economics at college before lecturing the U.S. on fossil fuel investments. Speaking at a press briefing at the World Economic Forum, Mnuchin was asked whether the world’s largest economy needed to completely and immediately divest from fossil fuels. “Is she the chief economist or who is she? I’m confused,” Mnuchin said, before adding this was “a joke. That was funny.” “After she goes and studies economics in college she can come back and explain that to us,” Mnuchin said. Thunberg, alongside 20 other young climate activists, has called on global leaders attending the forum to stop the “madness” of ongoing investments in fossil fuel exploration and extraction and “completely divest” from fossil fuels. Thunberg was not immediately available to respond when contacted by CNBC about Mnuchin’s comments. An intensifying climate crisis is top of the agenda at the forum, following a 12-month period that saw the hottest year on record for the world’s oceans, the second-hottest year for global average temperatures and wildfires from the U.S. to the Amazon to Australia. 

Greta Thunberg doesn't care about Steven Mnuchin's jab - Greta Thunberg just gave Davos its “OK, Boomer” moment. The teenage climate crusader on Friday shrugged off US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s jabs at her age, saying she and her comrades are used to criticism. “We cannot care about those kinds of things,” Thunberg said Friday before the start of a protest in the Swiss town hosting this week’s World Economic Forum, where the 17-year-old Swedish activist gave a fiery speech Tuesday. Thunberg was responding to Mnuchin’s snide remarks about her at a Thursday press conference. The former hedge fund manager and Goldman Sachs executive suggested she should study economics in college before lecturing world leaders about climate change. Thunberg — who was named Time magazine’s 2019 “Person of the Year” — said Mnuchin’s shade had “of course no effect” on her and her fellow young activists, who “are being criticized all the time.”

Greta Thunberg hits back after Mnuchin says she should study economics in college - Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg hit back at Steven Mnuchin on Thursday, after the Treasury Secretary suggested she needed to study economics in college before lecturing the U.S. on fossil fuel investments.“My gap year ends in August, but it doesn’t take a college degree in economics to realise that our remaining 1,5° carbon budget and ongoing fossil fuel subsidies and investments don’t add up,” the 17-year-old said via Twitter.“So either you tell us how to achieve this mitigation or explain to future generations and those already affected by the climate emergency why we should abandon our climate commitments,” she added.Mnuchin had criticized Thunberg’s financial credentials at the World Economic Forum earlier in the day. Speaking to reporters during a press briefing, Mnuchin was asked whether the world’s largest economy should completely and immediately divest from fossil fuels. That’s because Thunberg, alongside 20 other young climate activists, had called on the world’s decision-makers and business leaders to stop all investments in fossil fuel exploration and extraction. “Is she the chief economist or who is she? I’m confused,” Mnuchin said, before adding this was “a joke. That was funny.” “After she goes and studies economics in college she can come back and explain that to us,” Mnuchin said.

 Louise Linton, wife of Mnuchin, deletes Instagram post in support of Greta Thunberg - Louise Linton, the wife of U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, deleted an image she posted on Instagram Saturday showing support for teenage climate activist Greta Thunburg. Linton, who is an actress and TV producer, posted the image of Thunberg, 17, speaking at Davos, Switzerland, calling for an end to the fossil fuel industry. “I stand with Greta on this issue,” she wrote. “(I don't have a degree in economics either) We need to drastically reduce our use of fossil fuels. Keep up the fight @gretathunberg." Linton’s post was screenshotted by multiple journalists before it was deleted without explanation, though it appears to be a response to a previous statement her husband has made about Thunburg.  During an address to a room full of business and political leaders at Davos, Thunberg told the gathering that they are not doing enough to combat climate change, urging the leaders to treat the situation as a "real crisis."  Mnuchin, who is a former investment banker and Hollywood film producer, dismissed Thunburg’s ideas, suggesting that after “she goes and studies economics in college, she can come back and explain that to us."

'If you want to put a tax on people, go ahead': Lagarde and Mnuchin clash over energy transition - The president of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin laid bare their stark differences over how the world should transition to cleaner energy sources. The corporate world’s role in protecting the environment has been a central theme of this year’s World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Speaking on a panel Friday as the event drew to a close, Lagarde told the audience that central banks needed to lead the economic modeling of how changes to the environment should be costed and mitigated. Lagarde said banks, accountants, companies and ratings agencies would need to move away from quarterly and medium-term forecasts and start thinking in terms of 30 years out. Responding to the new ECB president directly, Mnuchin said he didn’t think forecasting the cost of protecting the environment was possible. “Christine, I think you can have a lot of people and model it, but I just don’t want to kid ourselves. I think there is no way we can possibly model what these risks are over the next 30 years with a level of certainty, given what I think is the changes in technology along the way,” he said. Lagarde responded directly, suggesting that long-term modeling would help press firms to understand the cost and process of switching to new, and less carbon intensive, energy sources. “If we can push companies into the direction of actually anticipating the transition, pricing it, and making sure that they move to cleaner and cleaner energy uses, then it helps,” she said. Interpreting that as a direct cost to a business, Mnuchin responded sharply. “I don’t think we know how to price these things,” he said, adding that the current pricing of future greener energy sources was being inflated. “So, I think we are overestimating the cost. So, if you want to put a tax on people, go ahead and put a carbon tax. That is a tax on hard-working people. I personally think the costs are going to be much lower 10 years from now — because of technology — than we think they are today,” he said.

Trump Says U.S. Will Join 1 Trillion Trees Initiative, While Ignoring the Root of the Problem and Attacking Climate Activists - President Donald Trump told a crowd at the Davos World Economic Forum Tuesday that the U.S. will join the Forum's 1t.org initiative to restore and conserve one trillion trees around the world, according to The Hill. For the most part, his speech touted his administration and the strength of the U.S. economy. He described the U.S. as a land of opportunity and unfettered economic growth and said he's "a very big believer in the environment," as The Hill reported. That stood in stark contrast to other world leaders who spoke of needing to address the climate crisis and global collaboration. Just before Trump delivered his 40-minute speech, World Economic Forum founder Klaus Schwab and Swiss president Simonetta Sommaruga sounded the alarm on the climate crisis, bringing up the recent Australia bushfires. Sommaruga also made a barely veiled reference to politicians like Trump, criticizing politicians who incite "intolerance, hatred, prejudice, revenge," as Quartz reported. Trump's announcement that the U.S. would join the 1t.org initiative was the part of his speech that received the warmest applause.  "We're committed to conserving the majesty of God's creation and the natural beauty of our world," Trump said, adding that the U.S. "will continue to show strong leadership in restoring, growing and better managing our trees and our forests," as The Hill reported.  However, he then quickly decided to slam environmentalists as alarmists, saying "We must reject the perennial prophets of doom, they are the heirs of yesterday's foolish fortune tellers," he claimed, adding that those people "want to see us do badly," according to Quartz.  He then said, "We will never let radical socialists destroy our economy, wreck our country, or eradicate our liberty. America will always be the proud, strong and unyielding bastion of freedom," as Newsweek reported.   Trump's sudden turn to dismiss people worried about the climate crisis showed just how unclear his plans to join the 1t.org initiative actually are. As The Guardian's Fiona Harvey wrote, "Will he restore the protected lands that he opened up for commercial development, the biggest reduction in public lands in U.S. history? Reverse his push for logging in the Alaskan Tongass National Forest? Bring back the jobs cut from the U.S. Forest Service? Will he lean on his ally Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil to stop the burning of the Amazon? Or will he just sign up to a snappy feel-good headline? Because who, after all, doesn't like trees?"

Climate Change News: Report Warns Of Green Swan Events, Calls On Central Banks To Act - The Bank for International Settlements warned Monday climate change could trigger systemic financial crises – so-called green swan events -- as a result of uncertainty surrounding the physical, social and economic phenomena associated with global warming. Just one day ahead of the start of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, at which climate change is the major focus, the BIS said in its “The Green Swan” report central banks need to integrate climate-related risks into their analyses of financial stability. It also follows last week’s revelation that the last decade was the warmest on record.The report said it used the definition of black swan events to come up with its green swan concept – taking into consideration unexpectedness and rarity, the widespread or extreme impact and that they can be understood only after the fact.“Traditional backward-looking risk assessments and existing climate-economic models cannot anticipate accurately enough the form that climate-related risks will take,” the BIS said in a statement accompanying the report. “These include what we call green swan risks: potentially extremely financially disruptive events that could be behind the next systemic financial crisis.”  The BIS noted central banks alone cannot mitigate the risks of climate change but can help governments, the private sector, civil society and the international community cooperate by coordinating such policies as carbon pricing and developing new financial mechanisms at the international level. The report advised central banks not to wait for other government agencies to act.

Ameren, Xcel, Dominion, Duke among most at-risk from changing climate: Moody's | Utility Dive -Power generation facilities will be increasingly at risk of weather-related disruptions related to climate change in the coming decades, according to a Moody's Investors Service report published on Thursday. Extreme heat, water shortages, flooding and hurricanes will all pose risks to infrastructure, and will increasingly need to be calculated into long-term utility planning, according to the report. Rate design and regulatory support are key strategies for mitigating that risk. Climate risks vary by region — Midwestern utilities are most vulnerable to increased extreme heat and flooding, while Western utilities face potential water shortages and Southeastern utilities are more exposed to hurricane risks. Despite risks related to climate, utility credit ratings remain stable overall, according to the report."One thing that we are really reiterating in this research is that utilities will continue to invest in long-term infrastructure," Vice President and Senior Analyst at Moody's and one of the lead authors of the report, Jairo Chung, told Utility Dive. "One caveat here though is that they will need to do this in the midst of the uncertainties around climate hazards. And that could potentially be a credit concern," she said. "But at least for now, our view is that for the near term, even for the medium term, that utilities will continue to have access to capital markets and have the regulatory support for them to recover the costs and on returns on these investments."The larger question than whether a utility is prepared for this risk or not, is whether there are regulatory structures in place to absorb investment risks, such as potential stranded asset risks related to infrastructure damage, she said.Elongated outages, as well as a change in power demand based on differing weather patterns, can threaten investor owned utility business models because traditional business models depend on consistent demand, and more volatile electric generation is one of the greater risks, according to Chung. Mitigating that risk can happen through rate strategies such as decoupling, which separates revenues generated by utilities from how much power their customers consume.

Cuba found to be the most sustainably developed country in the world - Cuba is the most sustainably developed country in the world, according to a new report launched on November 29.The socialist island outperforms advanced capitalist countries including Britain and the United States, which has subjected Cuba to a punitive six-decades-long economic blockade.The Sustainable Development Index (SDI), designed by anthropologist and author Dr Jason Hickel, calculates its results by dividing a nation’s “human development” score, obtained by looking at statistics on life expectancy, health and education, by its “ecological overshoot”, the extent to which the per capita carbon footprint exceeds Earth’s natural limits.  Countries with strong human development and a lower environmental impact score highly, but countries with poorer life expectancies and literacy rates as well as those which exceed ecological limits are marked down. Based on the most recent figures, from 2015, Cuba is top with a score of 0.859, while Venezuela is 12th and Argentina 18th. The SDI was created to update the Human Development Index (HDI), developed by Pakistani economist Mahbub ul Haq and used by the United Nations Development Programme to produce its annual reports since 1990. The HDI considers life expectancy, education and gross national income per capita, but ignores environmental degradation caused by the economic growth of top performers such as Britain and the US. “These countries are major contributors to climate change and other forms of ecological breakdown, which disproportionately affects the poorer countries of the global South, where climate change is already causing hunger rates to rise,” Hickel said.

Exclusive: BP's Looney goes all-in on climate goals and explores overhaul - Reuters- Change is afoot at BP. Incoming Chief Executive Bernard Looney plans to expand the company’s climate targets and is considering overhauling the structure of the oil and gas major in one of the biggest shake-ups in its 111-year history. The 49-year-old Irishman plans to adopt broader carbon emissions reduction goals that will likely include emissions from fuels and products sold to customers rather than just the far lower emissions from BP’s own operations, according to four sources with knowledge of internal discussions with the new CEO.The aim is to catch up with, and possibly outdo, rivals such as Royal Dutch Shell and Repsol as investor pressure over climate change mounts, said the sources who declined to be named as the plans have not yet been made public.More stringent climate targets could lead to London-based BP (BP.L) selling its most carbon-intensive businesses such as oil and gas fields in Angola and Canada, they added.As part of the climate push, Looney is also looking at a broad reorganization of the company aimed at cutting costs, with one idea being explored to merge parts of the upstream oil and gas production division with refining and petrochemical operations, said five sources.The new CEO and his team of close advisers have held an intensive series of closed-door meetings in recent weeks to outline the new strategy, according to three of the sources. They said he would outline his “ambitions” for the company in a speech on Feb. 12, a week after he takes over from Bob Dudley.

BlackRock gets praise for coal divestment. What it really needs is regulation - Ann Pettifor -Let’s not beat about the bushfires. It’s not the impacts of climate breakdown on our ecosystems or the world’s poorest in the global south that worries Larry Fink, the CEO of that financial behemothBlackRock. No, what really worries him and his shadow banking peers is the “fundamental reshaping of finance” threatened by climate protesters, and what this means for his company’s interests.  Fink made headlines this week with his annual letter to CEOs, which put the climate emergency front and centre. Acknowledging the risks that it poses to markets, and announcing that his fund will no longer invest in companies that generate more than 25% of their revenue from thermal coal production, his letter was hailed as a landmark move. But, before we get too laudatory, it’s worth asking: what is BlackRock?  The US company is the world’s biggest asset management fund. 63% of the staggering $7tn financial assets it manages originates in the Americas and 29% in Europe. In the UK (as far as we know) BlackRock manages £16.5bn of local government pensions, as well as at least £3.8bn of Transport for London’s pension fund. BlackRock’s management of our savings takes place largely in a globalised sphere known as the shadow banking sector.  This sector is made up of institutions (including pension funds, insurance companies and hedge funds) that use securities (a tradeable bundle of debt or equities) as collateral in a modern form of credit creation.  Asset management funds such as BlackRock operate beyond democratic borders and are not subject to the same regulatory oversight as traditional banks.  The real concern is that the world’s politicians and regulators have allowed this behemoth to scoop up our savings, while turning a blind eye to how those savings are managed. This, in turn, has fuelled the creation of vast amounts of credit and debt, which has made the global financial system unstable and fragile.  If we are to save the planet, then we must begin by switching off the giant tap of unregulated credit.   We must ensure that companies such as BlackRock are brought back down to Earth and properly regulated by public authority. We have to do this if we are to redirect investment into the transformation of economies away from their addiction to fossil fuels and into more sustainable transport, energy and land-use systems.

Moody’s reaffirms its negative outlook on U.S. coal sector -- Declining earnings and intensifying pressure from investors screening their portfolios for environmental, social and governance factors are weighing on the coal sector’s negative outlook, Moody’s Investors Service wrote Jan. 22.U.S. coal producers will see a significant deterioration in earnings and cash flow generation as coal export volumes continue to fall in 2020, the report concluded. Further, more pressure from ESG-minded investors is likely to complicate the sector’s access to capital and drive a more conservative financial approach.“We expect that EBITDA will fall by about one-third across our rated portfolio of U.S.-based coal companies, including some met coal-driven producers that could fall more significantly,” said Benjamin Nelson, senior credit officer and lead U.S. coal industry analyst for Moody’s.Investors moving away from the coal sector will likely increase financing costs, particularly bond markets. BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest asset manager and top investor in U.S. coal companies such as Peabody Energy Corp. and Arch Coal Inc., recently announced it would be ridding its actively managed portfolios of companies deriving more than 25% of revenues from thermal coal.Lower-rated U.S. coal producers are the most susceptible to the effects of the decline and will have limited ability to repay their debt as their credit situation tightens, Moody’s said. Moody’s dropped its outlook on the coal industry from stable to negative in August 2019. Nelson said that in early 2020, there is no clear catalyst for improvement after a sharp fall in prices in 2019.

Solar surge in Vietnam could undercut need for new coal plants -- The Economist: Solar power played almost no part in Vietnam’s energy mix in 2017. To speed the technology’s adoption, the government offered that year to pay suppliers a generous $0.09 for every kilowatt-hour produced by big solar farms, but only if they started operations within the following two years. It expected some 850mw of capacity to be installed. Instead, by the end of 2019 the country found itself with 5 gigawatts—more than Australia, with an economy almost six times the size.The surge is all the more surprising given the terms on offer from Vietnam Electricity (evn), the cash-strapped state-owned enterprise that runs the national grid. Although the government’s “feed-in tariff” was tempting given that costs typically amount to $0.05-0.07 a kilowatt-hour, evn only promised to pay for the power it needed on any given day. Developers worried that potential investors would balk at that. As it turned out, they leapt at the chance to cash in on Vietnam’s hunger for power.The Vietnamese economy has been growing by 5-7% a year for the past two decades. The government has plans to double power generation by 2030, but estimates that supply may run short as soon as next year. It needs to find new sources of power as soon as possible.Coal is the cornerstone of Vietnam’s energy supply. Under current plans, the fleet of coal-fired power plants will soon triple. But construction has been dogged by regulatory delays, local opposition and flagging investor interest. Building a new plant takes the better part of a decade. Solar farms, in contrast, incite far less opposition and take about two years to build. Environmentalists hope that solar’s success will persuade the government to scale back its ambitions for coal-fired plants. Later this year it is due to release new targets for generation capacity in 2030. Wind and solar have almost already met their current goal of providing 10% of power, ten years ahead of schedule. They could easily eat into the 43% share allotted to coal at present. Analysts assume, after all, that prices are likely to continue to move in renewables’ favour. Wood Mackenzie, a consultancy, thinks power from large solar farms in South-East Asia will be at least as cheap as that from almost all coal plants within five years. Given that coal plants have lifespans measured in decades, Vietnam and others risk locking in unduly expensive generation capacity.

Nebraska regulator revokes Big Ox permits -- Nebraska regulators on Tuesday revoked Big Ox Energy's air and stormwater permits, casting more uncertainty on the idled South Sioux City biofuel plant's future. The Wisconsin-based company's numerous violations showed a continual failure to comply with state regulations, providing grounds for the permit revocations, the officer who presided over the Nebraska Department of Environment and Energy's case against Big Ox concluded. "NDEE has provided Big Ox with many opportunities to come into compliance with its permits and regulations, but Big Ox has failed to do so," hearing officer Melanie Whittamore-Mantzios wrote her 59-page order. NDEE Director Jim Macy accepted Whittamore-Mantzios' findings and ordered the permits revoked immediately. Big Ox has 30 days to appeal the ruling. Kevin Bradley, Big Ox director of business and economic development, did not immediately return a message seeking comment. Residents living near the plant were happy to hear news of the permit revocations, said Robert Baker, one of more than a dozen neighbors who have sued Big Ox in connection with continuous complaints of odors from the plant. "It's just another nail in the coffin in that place that never should have been opened in the first place," Baker said. "At this point, we're so far past all this that I really don't care what they do with that place."

We need to reduce fossil fuel use. The CMP transmission line project can help. — Bangor Daily News —  Two Texas-based natural gas generators have joined the battle in Maine regarding Canadian hydropower, calling their PAC “Mainers for Local Power.” Their apparent goal is to keep electricity prices high with no reduction in CO2 and methane emissions by stopping the New England Clean Energy Connect project. Their funding has been applauded by certain “environmental” opponents. The natural gas industry is funding the opposition to the NECEC while theirleaky pipelines and fracking mines send huge methane emissions into the atmosphere. They produce 49 percent of New England’s power. The serious and devastating threat that these climate-warming emissions pose to forests, wildlife, fish and indigenous people are described in detail on the University of Maine Climate Change Institute website. Instead of meeting the United Nation’s goal of a more than 7 percent reduction in fossil fuel use per year, our nation’s fossil fuel use rose by 4 percent in 2018.Currently solar and wind provide only 4 percent of New England power and we need both to grow dramatically. Large-scale solar and wind requires battery backup because these much needed energy sources have significant seasonal and daily variability. Canadian hydropower delivered to New England over the NECEC transmission line could be that battery. Commenting on the NECEC, the Union of Concerned Scientists stated, “This plan to responsibly import Canadian hydropower will complement local and regional investments in energy efficiency measures, solar, offshore wind and storage. It will create new construction jobs, cut air pollution and reduce the Northeast’s overreliance on natural has and oil.” The NECEC would reduce carbon emissions by over 3 million metric tons a year, according to the Maine Public Utilities Commission, and enable further reductions by facilitating more solar and wind in our energy mix. Lower cost, clean renewables can displace fossil fuels, but oil and gas companies will not give up their hold on energy production without a fight. They are pouring money into a mis-information campaign which claims that clean hydropower is bad under the assumption that “natural” gas is good.

Why ethanol endures as important market for Midwestern farmers - With the Iowa caucuses just two weeks off, would-be Democratic presidential candidates have each paid their obligatory tributes to corn ethanol. The biofuel’s intended uses for energy independence and greenhouse gas reduction have become matters of debate. But no one questions its political clout, economic importance or staying power, especially in the Midwest. Virtually all politicians of all parties, whether they stand against climate change or for petrochemicals, must make the quadrennial pilgrimage to the throne of King Corn to succeed in the nation’s first formal contest of the presidential-nominating season. “Ethanol is not a green fuel,” said Jason Hill, a professor of bioproducts and biosystems engineering at the University of Minnesota. “What ethanol really is, is another market for corn. [But] Iowa plays a disproportional role in American politics, and Iowa has corn. Any candidate against corn would be sunk in Iowa.” The same might be said in Minnesota. Iowa leads the nation in ethanol production. Minnesota ranks fourth, behind Nebraska and Illinois. The influence of ethanol dates to 2005 and the passage of the federal law that established the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). The RFS dictates how many billions of gallons of biofuel-gasoline blends refiners must produce each year. Under the RFS, the number of bushels of corn used to make ethanol soared from 1.32 billion in 2004 to 5.6 billion in 2018.

NC And SC Lawmakers Call For Studies Of Electricity Market Reforms  A group of state lawmakers from North and South Carolina want to deregulate the states' electricity markets by allowing competition for power production. At a press conference Thursday in Charlotte, the lawmakers said they want the two states to study the issue together and suggest reforms. State Rep. Larry Strickland (R-Johnston County), said he wants North Carolina to convert the current regulated monopoly to a competitive system. A bill he introduced this session would allow for creation of a regional entity that would own power transmission lines in the Carolinas, and require the state to study the benefits of the idea. He said the goal would be a system that lowers costs and gives customers more choices, or, as he put it, "transition from a vertical, integrated monopoly structure to a market-based system that puts the interests of utility customers at the center of the discussion." In a press conference at the Mint Museum Uptown, Strickland said 35 other states have adopted electricity market structures. He believes North and South Carolina, and maybe other neighbors, can create a new energy marketplace that will also help shift to cleaner energy sources and a more reliable energy grid. South Carolina Sen. Tom Davis, a Republican from Beaufort County, said the states' current early-20th century systems are outdated. He filed a bill this week to study electricity market reform after studying the business following the cancellation of the V.C. Summer nuclear plant expansion project in Fairfield County, S.C. That left ratepayers on the hook for millions of dollars in expenses for a plant that will never generate electricity.

Plunging U.S. gas prices intensify squeeze on coal (Reuters) - U.S. coal-fired power plants are facing the perfect storm, with a mild winter and slumping natural gas prices adding to their long-term problems with competitiveness and pushing more towards retirement. Warm weather is sapping total demand for electricity, while ultra-low gas prices mean more of the demand that remains will be satisfied by gas-fired units rather than coal plants. Natural gas futures prices for deliveries to Henry Hub in Louisiana in March 2020 have fallen to just $1.92 per million British thermal units, down from $2.24 at the same point last month and $2.94 a year ago. Gas prices have plunged as a result of warmer than average temperatures so far this winter and production growth rates that have been running close to 10% year on year. For many power producers, the price of gas is now lower than coal, once differentials in transport costs and the efficiency of different types of power plants are taken into account. Coal-fired power plants need to burn about 10,000 British thermal units of coal to generate a kilowatt hour of electricity, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. But a gas-fired combined cycle plant needs to burn only around 7,600 British thermal units of gas (“Electric power annual”, EIA, Oct. 18, 2019).   The result is that fewer coal-fired power plants remain open, and those still operating are running at reduced output and for fewer hours (https://tmsnrt.rs/2G8evNB).  In October 2019, the most recent month for which data is available, total coal-fired generating capacity had fallen to just 234 gigawatts (GW), down from 245 GW in October 2018 and 258 GW in October 2017. At the same time, electricity production from the remaining coal generators was just 39% of their maximum capacity, down from 49% in October 2018 and 47% in October 2017. By contrast, gas-fired combined cycle capacity had climbed to 268 GW in October 2019, up from 259 GW and 246 GW in the same months in 2018 and 2017 respectively. And combined cycle units generated 55% of their maximum output in October 2019, trending up from 53% and 48% in the same months in 2018 and 2017. By October, gas prices had fallen so low they were even encouraging owners of simple gas turbines and steam turbines, which are much less efficient than combined cycle units, to operate for more hours. Gas turbines, similar to a jet engine and normally employed only to meet peak electricity demand, produced 13.6% of their maximum output in October 2019, up from 11.6% in October 2018 and 9.5% in October 2017. Gas-fired steam turbines, which burn gas to raise steam in a boiler and also tend to operate as peaking plants, operated at 15.9% of their capacity compared with 12.6% and 12.5% in the same months of 2018 and 2017 respectively.  Ultra-low prices provide a strong signal for gas generators - single turbines and steam turbines, as well as combined-cycle plants - to run for as many hours as possible, which will help absorb the current glut of gas.

Uneconomic coal plants cost Michigan ratepayers millions, analysts say - Uneconomic coal plants have cost a Michigan utility’s customers tens of millions of dollars a year by running at times when cheaper resources are available, according to energy analysts. Three plants owned by DTE Energy in southeastern Michigan, in particular, lost $74 million in 2017, filings show in a rate case settled last year. The practice is known as “self-scheduling” or “self-committing,” when utilities designate certain power plants to run regardless of the price grid operators are willing to pay for the electricity. Utility regulators in Minnesota and Missouri have opened dockets on the subject, while Wisconsin advocates are putting pressure on state regulators to examine the practice there. Designating coal plants as must-run is increasingly uneconomic amid low natural gas prices and as more renewables come on the grid, experts say. Basically, it’s getting more expensive to run coal plants than what the power sells for on the wholesale market. Joe Daniel, senior energy analyst with the Union of Concerned Scientists who has examined self-scheduling throughout the country, has raised the issue most recently in DTE Energy’s proposed integrated resource plan at the Michigan Public Service Commission. Last month, an administrative law judge recommended the plan be rejected for a variety of reasons, including flawed modeling. DTE “just assumed all of their coal plants would operate at some minimum level throughout the years rather than evaluating if there were times, hours or months of the year when it was uneconomic to operate them,” Daniel said. “When we removed that constraint from the model we found all of their coal plants operated a lot less, indicating they could potentially save customers money by changing the way they operate their coal plants.” Daniel added that the findings on DTE match previous research on utilities across the U.S. The DTE results are preliminary, he stressed, but show “DTE is costing customers tens of millions of dollars a year by over-relying on their coal plants.”

Kentucky Leads The Country In 2020 Coal Retirements - Two of the largest coal-fired power plant retirements in the U.S. in 2020 are happening in Kentucky. The Tennessee Valley Authority’s Paradise Unit 3 near Drakesboro is scheduled to shutter this December while Owensboro’s Elmer Smith Generating Station will cease operations in June. These older, more inefficient power plants are the latest to be priced out of the market, and are now trudging toward the elephant graveyard of legacy coal-fired plants in the Ohio Valley. Together, power generation from the two plants represents more than a quarter of the total coal-fired capacity set to retire this year, based on an analysis using U.S. Energy Information Administration data. “Basically what you hear from the experts in the field is there is not going to be another coal plant built in Kentucky or anywhere else, probably… forever,” said Andrew Melnykovych, spokesman for Kentucky Public Service Commission, the state’s utility regulator. Sales of electricity in Kentucky have declined over the last decade, mostly due to a loss in large industrial customers, and future increases are expected to be offset as people use less energy overall due to energy efficiency improvements (LED lightbulbs, Energy Star appliances etc.), according to EIA data. So new power generation is likely to come online as older plants retire and as customers begin demanding cleaner sources of energy.

Analysts say new 'coal bailout' could hike customer bills and keep coal plants running - Hoosiers' electricity bills could rise and several state utilities may face obstacles in their plans to phase out coal-based power generation in the coming years under politically charged legislation that would help a struggling Indiana industry. House Bill 1414, filed last week by state Rep. Ed Soliday, R-Valparaiso, would require Indiana utilities to prove that any plans to shut down a power plant are either required by a federal mandate or otherwise in the public interest. But not just any plants. Though the word "coal" does not appear once in the language of the bill, advocates and analysts say the legislation specifically targets coal-burning plants. The bill is set to be heard Wednesday during a meeting of the House Utilities, Energy and Telecommunications Committee, which Soliday chairs. The proposed regulatory requirement follows similar but unsuccessful legislation last year and is raising concerns among not only environmentalists but also some conservatives who see it as heavy-handed favoritism. "We support an all-of-the-above energy strategy, but not one that puts one, in this case coal, above all others," said Jared Noblitt, executive director of the Indiana Conservative Alliance for Energy. "Hoosiers deserve energy that is clean and cheap — not a coal bailout." Utilities in Indiana and across the country — driven as much by market forces as environmental stewardship or federal mandate — are shifting away from coal and toward natural gas and renewable energy sources, a movethat by one state utility's account could save customers billions of dollars in coming decades. That utility, northern Indiana's NIPSCO, used 71% coal and only 4% renewables in its energy mix in 2019. By 2023, its mix is expected to be only 17% coal and 53% renewable energy.

'Coal bailout' bill amended, passes out of committee - A bill that would slow Indiana's move away from coal and toward natural gas and renewables is heading to the Indiana House floor after more than two hours of committee testimony. House Bill 1414 would require Indiana utilities to prove that any plans to shut down a power plant are either required by a federal mandate or otherwise in the public interest. The bill's author — Rep Ed. Soliday, who also chairs the House Utilities, Energy and Telecommunications Committee that advanced the measure Wednesday on a 9-4 vote — introduced a major amendment that would essentially give it an expiration date. The Valparaiso Republican acknowledged that much of the original bill was a placeholder "because people were still negotiating." Still, the aspect of the bill that would require approval by the state's regulatory commission remains. And for many of the nearly three dozen people who testified, that is the aspect that they take issue with: They feel it is redundant and burdensome and amounts to government intervention in the free market, which is shifting utilities away from coal. In fact, only a handful of individuals spoke in favor of the bill, and four of them were speaking on behalf of the Indiana Coal Council. The other 30 or so who testified spoke in opposition to the bill. Those interests represented Indiana's five investor-owned utilities, the Indiana Chamber of Commerce, the Indiana Industrial Energy Consumers, the Indiana Conservative Alliance for Energy, consumer advocates, environmentalists and ratepayers themselves.

Coal plants may get reduced role at Xcel Energy - With cheap wind power increasingly prevalent, Xcel Energy is planning to run two of its four coal generators on a part-time basis, a move the company said will save money for ratepayers and reduce carbon emissions. Xcel’s proposal comes as state utility regulators are examining the cost efficiency of running coal plants continuously when less-expensive wind power is often abundant in the wholesale electricity markets. “This is a recognition by Xcel Energy that at least half of their coal fleet is no longer economic to run year-round,” said Joseph Daniel, senior energy analyst for the Union of Concerned Scientists, a research and advocacy group. “They can get considerable savings.” The Union of Concerned Scientists and the Sierra Club, an environmental group, have both done research that found the traditional utility practice of “must-run” status for coal plants has become increasingly uneconomic, costing ratepayers hundreds of millions of dollars a year. Such findings aren’t just coming from clean-energy advocacy groups. The Southwest Power Pool, a wholesale power-market operator in the southern Great Plains, concluded in a December study that must-run status distorts price signals, and that reducing the practice would lead to better profit maximization and ratepayer benefits. Bloomberg New Energy Finance, an economics researcher, found in a 2018 study that 48% of the U.S. coal-fired power fleet ran at a loss from 2012 through 2017. “Fading are the days when coal plants earned their mettle as high-output baseload workhorses; coal is being reincarnated as backup capacity,” the study concluded. Coal plants on must-run status get dispatched to provide electricity in wholesale electricity markets, even when wind and gas-fired power are cheaper. “ ‘Must run’ has been the status quo for utilities for a long time, but more questions on the economics have been raised,” said Allen Gleckner, energy markets director for St. Paul-based Fresh Energy, a research and advocacy group. Wind is a free fuel, and the number of wind farms has mushroomed over the last decade, boosted by federal tax credits and falling equipment costs. At the same time, natural-gas-fired plants have increasingly displaced coal power, too. They are cheaper to operate, and natural gas emits half the carbon dioxide that coal does.

Utility mulls moving cemeteries at plant to store coal ash — A federal utility is considering relocating cemeteries within a Tennessee power plant’s property lines to expand coal ash storage.The Tennessee Valley Authority says it is currently seeking the public’s input and assistance to identify families associated with the cemeteries on the Gallatin Fossil Plant’s land.TVA says the cemeteries were there when the utility bought the land in the 1950s. TVA says it is gathering genealogical and historical information on the graves. The cemeteries are within a proposed expansion of onsite dry coal ash storage. Environmental and other reviews will be conducted if TVA decides to move the cemeteries.The proposal to move the cemeteries is included within an Environmental Impact Statement accessible online.

TVA offers Q&A on issues surrounding coal-fired Bull Run future closure  -The Tennessee Valley Authority, which voted to retire the coal-fired Bull Run Fossil Plant in less than four years, also has heard a vast amount of response from its customers and stakeholders, both good and bad. The 889-MW Bull Run, also known as the Bull Run Steam Plant, has been operating since 1967 in Oak Ridge, Tenn. . The closure announcements came on the recommendation of the utility’s environmental assessment committee and against the social media entity of President Trump. At the time, then TVA CEO Bill Johnson said the closures were economic decisions, meant to save hundreds of millions of dollars in compliance and upgrade costs.  TVA has been working toward the permitting of a proposed new landfill to store coal combustion residuals on TVA property adjacent to the Bull Run site since 2013, when the first permit document was submitted to the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation (TDEC). While the TVA Board has decided to close the Bull Run Fossil plant in 2023, TVA must still be ready, if necessary, to store coal combustion residuals (CCR) produced before the closure and/or to store CCR that could be removed from the Bull Run site to the proposed new landfill pending the results of numerous environmental studies.  TVA continues to seek the required permits to construct the new dry storage landfill. If this new landfill is needed for CCR storage, TVA will need to reroute approximately 3,500 feet of a stream that runs through the area where the proposed new landfill will be constructed. This will require TVA to obtain permits from TDEC and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. TVA will not alter the stream until the entire permit process is complete, and the landfill is approved and permitted by TDEC. TVA has not decided whether to build this landfill.

Coal Ash Gets Attention As Georgia Legislative Session Begins  An environmental issue bubbled up in the first week of Georgia’s legislative session: Coal ash and how best to clean it up. This isn’t the first year coal ash bills have come up in Georgia, but Democrats in both houses highlighted their new bills this week, calling attention to the topic. The bills, which are similar, would require coal ash to be stored in facilities that are at least as secure as municipal landfills. The Senate bill is sponsored by state Sen. Jennifer Jordan, a Democrat who represents parts of Cobb and Fulton Counties. The House bill is sponsored by minority leader Bob Trammell, a Democrat from Luthersville. Coal ash is a byproduct from burning coal for electricity. Georgia Power has estimated that it has about 86 million tons of it in Georgia. According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, it can have contaminants like boron, arsenic, mercury and cadmium. In the past, utilities have stored it in big open ponds, mixed with water, but after disastrous in North Carolina and Tennessee, the EPA introduced its first-ever coal ash rules in 2015. Soon after that, Georgia Power announced it would close all 29 of its coal ash ponds in Georgia, including ponds here in metro Atlanta, at Plant McDonough, which is in Smyrna. Another coal ash bill that was introduced last session by Sen. William Ligon, a Republican from Brunswick, focuses on fees related to coal ash dumping. The state sets a fee that local governments can collect from dumping in landfills. For everything but coal ash, that fee is $2.50 a ton; for coal ash, it’s cheaper, at $1 a ton. Ligon’s bill would make coal ash cost the same to dump as anything else.

Will Duke Energy customers pay more for coal ash clean up? --The news this month that Duke Energy will dig up 80 million tons of its coal ash ended years of wrangling over disposal of the gritty power plant waste. Left unsettled is who will pay billions of dollars for the cleanup: Duke’s shareholders or its customers?North Carolina’s attorney general is among critics who say Duke’s mishandling of coal ash, including a massive spill and groundwater contamination, should make it liable for the tab. Duke argues that it has complied with all rules for ash and should be able to recoup its costs through higher electricity rates.The state Utilities Commission, which rules on electric rates, agreed with Duke in two 2018 cases. But a challenge of those decisions now before the state Supreme Court could reverse those decisions. Recent changes in commission members could affect the results of future cases. Coal ash was far off the public’s radar a decade ago, before a 2014 spill of Duke’s ash into North Carolina’s Dan River captured headlines. Under the terms of this month’s settlement, it will now be the focus of what state environmental officials call the nation’s biggest ash cleanup.Duke estimates that it will cost $8 billion to $9 billion to close its basins in the Carolinas and move most of the ash to lined landfills, of which it has already spent $2.4 billion.That’s a lot of money even for one of the largest U.S. electricity generators. Eight billion dollars is about three times Duke’s 2018 profit and would build nine power plants like the natural gas-fired plant it is completing in Asheville.

Governor says Santee Cooper losses will cost $6,200 per Horry County household - S.C. Governor Henry McMaster’s statement on Santee Cooper taken from his proposed 2020-2021 budget warns and informs Horry County residents of new rate increases from Santee Cooper.Says Governor McMaster, “Paying off Santee Cooper’s debt will cost direct-serve customers in Horry County, Georgetown, and Berkeley about $6,200 per household.“Over $7 billion was lost by Santee Cooper under the watch of current District 33 Senator Luke Rankin. Rankin served as the Chairman of the Senate’s oversight committee of the state owned utility. The V.C. Summer nuclear expansion project began as a shared effort between V.C. Summer Nuclear Generating Station owners, SCANA and Santee Cooper, to add two reactors (Units 2 and 3) to the South Carolina plant.  However, the decade-long, $9 billion expansion was bogged down by delays and cost overruns until the effort was ultimately abandoned in July 2017.

Lawmakers seek safeguards on nuclear plant decommissioning - -- Lawmakers are seeking additional influence over the decommissioning of the recently shuttered Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station, but a representative for the company conducting the work argued Wednesday that those attempts may be unconstitutional. Tom Joyce, a lobbyist for Holtec Decommissioning International, said that bills imposing higher clean-up standards (H 2904 / S 1949) or reforming how decommissioning is funded (S 1948, S 1992) would exceed the state’s authority and infringe on the jurisdiction of the federal Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Joyce told the Joint Committee on Telecommunications, Utilities and Energy that passage of the bills would likely prompt a lawsuit from Holtec, delaying the decommissioning process that the company has said will take seven years. “As (lawmakers) attempt to regulate and to require certain criteria for the decommissioning of the nuclear power plant, they are, I would argue strenuously, in violation of the federal preemption doctrine of our United States Constitution,” Joyce said. “I say that without hesitation.” Backers of the legislation, though, see the proposals as important steps to protect local stakeholders amid a process that has drawn criticism and a lawsuit from the attorney general. Plymouth Republican Rep. Mathew Muratore, who filed one of the bills that would require decommissioning to meet stricter environmental standards, said his goal is to ensure the land is clean enough to appeal to potential businesses and avoid remaining vacant.

The Unexpected Consequences Of Germany's Anti-Nuclear Push -Germany, the poster child for renewable energy, sourcing close to half of its electricity from renewable sources, plans to close all of its nuclear power plants by 2022. Its coal-fired plants, meanwhile, will be operating until 2038. According to a study from the U.S. non-profit National Bureau of Economic Research, Germany is paying dearly for this nuclear phase-out--with human lives.  The study looked at electricity generation data between 2011 and 2017 to assess the costs and benefits of the nuclear phase-out, which was triggered by the Fukushima disaster in 2011 and which to this day enjoys the support of all parliamentary powers in Europe’s largest economy. It just so happens that some costs may be higher than anticipated.The shutting down of nuclear plants naturally requires the replacement of this capacity with something else. Despite its reputation as a leader in solar and wind, Germany has had to resort to more natural gas-powered generation and, quite importantly, more coal generation. As of mid-2019, coal accounted for almost 30 percent of Germany’s energy mix, with nuclear at 13.1 percent and gas at 9.3 percent.The authors of the NBER study have calculated that “the social cost of the phase-out to German producers and consumers is $12 billion per year (2017 USD). The vast majority of these costs fall on consumers.” But what are these social costs--exactly?“Specifically,” the authors wrote, “over 70% of the cost of the nuclear phase-out is due to the increased mortality risk from local air pollution exposure as a consequence of producing electricity by burning fossil fuels rather than utilizing nuclear sources.”   The culprit is coal. According to the study, some 1,100 people die because of the pollution from coal power generation every year. This, the authors say, is a lot worse than even the most pessimistic cost estimates of so-called “nuclear accident risk” and not just that: 1,100 deaths annually from coal-related pollution is worse even when you include the costs of nuclear waste disposal in the equation.  The results of the study, which used machine learning to analyze the data, surprised the authors. The cost of human lives had not been expected to be the largest cost associated with the nuclear phase-out.

State works to draft 10-year forestry plan to include climate change, fracking - The Columbus Dispatch --The Ohio Division of Forestry is in the process of putting together a 10-year plan for the state’s forests. Ohioans can expect some changes. The deadline is March 1 to comment. Ten years ago, most southeastern Ohio landowners had no fracking well pads on their property. Most people had heard of climate change, but it wasn’t built into the social consciousness at the level it is now,  As Ohio’s forestry officials prepare to draft a 10-year plan for the state’s forests, those are the kinds of topics that will have to be addressed in more detail. “We do have more information now, and (climate change) will certainly be included in the plan,” said Tom Macy, a forest health program administrator for the Ohio Department of Natural Resources. The 10-year plans only date back to 2010, when they were created through the 2008 Farm Bill as a requirement for state funding through the Cooperative Forestry Assistance Act.  “We have a mandate from the U.S. Forest Service to involve other stakeholders,” Macy said.Ohio has 7.9 million acres of forestland. Of that, 85% is privately owned, with the remaining 15% owned by local, state and federal government.“We are facing a climate and biodiversity crisis globally. Our state foresters need to put protections and rejuvenation of existing forest habitats at the forefront of their oversight,” said Loraine McCosker, who volunteers with the Sierra Club and plans to attend one of the state meetings in Athens. “We need forests for clean air, clean water, carbon sequestration, biological diversity, (and) human physical and mental health.”Foresters will have to examine how native tree species will survive in a changing climate and what pests could be moving into Ohio.“We need a new, more science-based trajectory for the state,” McCosker said.The state’s oil and gas commission could convene and sign off on fracking on state-owned land. “Obviously, the impacts of the oil and gas industry in Ohio affect forests. ... That’s still a portion of the plan that I want to collect more data on,” Macy said. Ohioans have until March 1 to submit input about the plan, and they have the option of attending upcoming meetings. Macy said a draft of the plan should be completed in time for the first public meeting.

Challenged federal rule could price many renewables out of PJM’s capacity market -Motions filed this week are asking the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to change a ruling that could price many renewables out of the PJM capacity market, while driving up prices for consumers. FERC’s Minimum Offer Price Rule, or MOPR, calls for PJM to set minimum bids for state-subsidized electricity generators in those auctions. The rule could indirectly give coal-fired power plants an extra lease on life in the country’s largest capacity market, while making it harder for new wind or solar plants to enter the market and compete. “The decision is really the worst case scenario” of possibilities considered during the period leading up to the ruling, said attorney Christie Hicks at the Environmental Defense Fund. PJM’s capacity auctions pay generators to guarantee they will provide power at a future date, usually about three years out. Lower-priced energy resources clear the auction ahead of higher-priced ones. All who clear get paid the same rate as the highest successful bidder. Most coal and natural gas plants in the PJM footprint won’t be subject to the rule, outside of a few that get state subsidies, as under Ohio’s House Bill 6. However, the rule includes indirect benefits from state policies that could be deemed to provide an advantage. Viewed in that way, renewable portfolio standards would fall under the rule, largely because utilities can meet those standards by buying renewable energy credits, or RECs.

FERC Changes to PJM Power Grid Drive Up Costs, Pollution — Critics Claim - Higher energy bills to consumers. Increased use of more-polluting fossil-fuel plants. A shift away from cleaner ways of producing power, like solar and offshore wind. According to critics, those are the consequences of a month-old decision by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to require PJM, operator of the nation’s largest power grid, to revamp how state-subsidized generation is treated in competitive energy markets. As a result, a request has been made that the agency reconsider and clarify its December decision requiring the grid operator to include electricity from sources in its capacity market, a step aimed at bringing the price of clean power in line with that produced by fossil fuels. Few in the energy market like the decision — including state regulators, consumer advocates and even energy suppliers. “Make no mistake: the alternative to granting a rehearing is increased consumer harm in the form of higher prices and worse environmental outcomes,’’ the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities said in a brief it filed Tuesday. Those outcomes, the board said, will impair the state’s efforts to fight climate change. The revamped policy is viewed by advocates as a way for FERC to fix the energy market, where subsidies for renewable energy and nuclear power distorts competition. But critics argued the proposal fails to consider the “externalities’’ of the benefits of cleaner generation, such as lower pollution that contributes to health costs and reduced greenhouse-gas emissions that cause global warming. They also argued the order disrupts long-standing rules to allow states to decide what types of generation should provide power in their jurisdictions. “If the commission does not reverse course, state clean-energy efforts will be frustrated and the PJM market will be at risk for dissolution,’’ according to the brief by BPU. It repeated a threat from its president in the past when he threatened to pull New Jersey out of the PJM market.

FERC’s ‘minimum offer’ rule adds to the already high price tag for Ohio HB 6 | Energy News Network - Ohio regulators are among dozens of challengers asking the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to reconsider a ruling that could bump Ohio’s electricity costs up more than $1 billion per year to counter state subsidies for various kinds of electricity generation. Those expenses would be in addition to amounts customers will already pay under Ohio House Bill 6. The law, passed last year, will primarily subsidize two FirstEnergy Solutions/Energy Harbor nuclear power plants and two 1950s-era coal plants. A much smaller amount is earmarked for a handful of already permitted solar projects. “Ohio is actually the single state that will be most torn by this decision,” The MOPR rule is intended to level the playing field in PJM’s capacity auctions, which reward generators for guaranteeing they will be able to provide power at a future date, usually about three years out. Generators bid their costs, and all that clear the auction are paid the same rate for their guarantees. FERC has decided that PJM should set minimum bids for for any generators that receive state subsidies. The rule will apply to plants benefiting from HB 6 and similar ones that also produce subsidized nuclear power, as in Illinois. More broadly, it would consider state renewable portfolio standards to be subsidies, so it would apply to most new wind and solar projects as well. As a result, most generation subject to a minimum offer will likely fail to clear the PJM capacity auctions. That would exclude 23,975 megawatts of generation in places like Ohio, New Jersey, Illinois and Maryland, according to an August 2019 report by Grid Strategies, a clean energy consulting firm in Bethesda, Maryland. That’s roughly one-seventh of the total that cleared PJM’s 2018 auction for 2021/2022. Meanwhile, PJM would still procure capacity for the full amount of the demand it expects across the region, plus a margin. For the last auction in 2018, that margin was 22%.

House Bill 6 referendum effort is dead after group drops lawsuit appeal - cleveland.com - The fight to hold a statewide referendum overturning House Bill 6, Ohio’s new law gutting green-energy standards and subsidizing nuclear and coal power plants, is officially over. On Tuesday, Ohioans Against Corporate Bailouts, the group behind the effort to hold the referendum, filed a motion with the 6th Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals to drop its appeal seeking to gain more time to gather enough signatures to place the measure on the 2020 ballot. “We couldn’t see a path forward,” said Gene Pierce, a spokesman for Ohioans Against Corporate Bailouts, on Wednesday morning. “I don’t know what anybody else wants to do, but we’re done.” The group’s decision marks an end to a months-long battle to gather petition signatures – which was opposed by pro-HB6 forces who spent millions on TV ads and hired “blockers” who followed, encircled, harassed, and (in a couple cases) physically hit petition collectors. After Ohioans Against Corporate Bailouts failed to collect the needed 265,774 signatures from registered Ohio voters by the time HB6 took effect on Oct. 12, the group sued in federal court to gain more time. Under state law, referendum seekers have 90 days to collect and submit the signatures after the bill is signed by the governor. But Ohioans Against Corporate Bailouts argued that since it took 38 days to gain formal approval from Ohio’s attorney general and secretary of state to begin collecting signatures, their petition deadline should be extended by 38 days.

Ohio Valley Residents Respond to Oil And Gas Documentary - -- The Ohio Valley citizens group, Concerned Ohio River Residents, made the educational documentary prerelease screening of “The Story of Plastic” available Saturday afternoon at the Grave Creek Mound Historical Site theater in Moundsville. The group invited dozens of invited local “decision makers” and politicians in an effort to showcase the global plastic pollution crisis that the world now faces, according to Bev Reed, an organizer of the group. She said while the 90-minute film still has still not been released to the public by its creator, Deia Schlosberg, she is hopeful the film will be made available to the public as soon as possible.. “The Story of Plastic” focuses on exposing the truth behind the plastic pollution crisis, according to its creators. In the film, footage shot over three continents illustrates the ongoing catastrophe: fields full of garbage, heaps of trash; rivers and seas clogged with waste; and skies choked with the runoff from plastic production and recycling processes. The film shows interviews with experts and activists, and scenes which reveal the impact of the flood of plastic on ecosystems and communities around the world, and the global movement rising up in response. Reed said the film was meant to highlight the risks such industry would pose to the region, if the proposed Dilles Bottom ethane cracker plant would come to fruition. “This cracker plant would create about 3 billion pounds of plastic feed stock pellets per year — much of what would be used for single use plastics. It’s impacting our human health. It’s impacting animal health. “By 2050 plastic will outweigh fish in the world’s oceans so it’s very worrisome,” she added. Reed said another issue is the proposed cracker plant would be built by companies from overseas and the profits would not stay here.

Company linked to EPA chief of staff OKs $3.7M settlement -- In July 2013, EPA inspectors found an oil and gas well pad on an Ohio Boy Scout camp was leaking air pollution that could worsen climate change and cause lung damage. Nearly 6 ½ years later, the Trump administration has proposed a $3.7 million settlement agreement with well owner Gulfport Energy, a struggling Oklahoma-based firm with ties to EPA Chief of Staff Ryan Jackson. A former EPA enforcement director and a resident who lives near the leaking pads welcomed the tentative deal, but they both argued it took too long for the settlement to be reached. The agreement, filed yesterday with the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Ohio, would require Gulfport to pay a $1.7 million penalty and spend around $2 million curbing volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions from the Fort Steuben Scout Reservation well pad and 16 other production sites in eastern Ohio. EPA estimates the required investments would cut 313 tons of VOCs per year. The Department of Justice will accept comments for 30 days on the proposal, which also needs to be approved by a federal judge from the Southern District of Ohio. "Gulfport has agreed to improve its operations to address these issues and to reduce air pollution," Kurt Thiede, the EPA regional administrator who oversees the Buckeye State, said in a press release that didn't mention the deal's climate benefits. "EPA is committed to reducing pollution and improving air quality throughout Ohio, helping residents breathe easier," Thiede said. The agreement also revealed that EPA had hit Gulfport with three separate notices of violation regarding air pollution from the so-called Boy Scout well pad: first in December 2013, then in December 2016 and again in March 2019. The latter pair of alleged violations also cited Gulfport for excess VOC emissions at more than a dozen other nearby production sites. The 2013 notice warned that "these violations have caused or can cause excess emissions of the greenhouse gas methane," a planet-warming compound that traps 20 times more heat than carbon dioxide over a century. "The buildup of greenhouse gases can change Earth's climate and result in dangerous effects to human health and welfare and to ecosystems." VOCs, the notice added, can also lead to lung-damaging smog. The subsequent notices — issued when Donald Trump was president-elect and then after he'd assumed office — reiterated concerns about VOCs but didn't list exacerbating climate change as one of the environmental impacts of the alleged violations.

This Problem With Fracked Oil and Gas Wells Is Occurring 'at an Alarming Rate' | DeSmog - On February 15, 2018, a fracked natural gas well owned by ExxonMobil's XTO Energy and located in southeast Ohio experienced a well blowout, causing it to gush the potent greenhouse gas methane for nearly three weeks. The obscure accident ultimately resulted in one of the biggest methane leaks in U.S. history. The New York Times reported in December that new satellite data revealed that this single gas well leaked more methane in 20 days than an entire year's worth of methane released by the oil and gas industries in countries like Norway and France. The cause of this massive leak was a failure of the gas well's casing, or internal lining. Well casing failures represent yet another significant but not widely discussed technical problem for an unprofitable fracking industry.  Casing failures occur when the steel or cement that's lining an oil or gas well breaks or cracks, which means the well can't maintain pressure anymore and creates a pathway for anything inside the well — such as fracking fluids — to leak into the surrounding environment. They can take place, as in the example of Exxon's gas well in Ohio, at sites where hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, is happening.  The results of these failures can be catastrophic, as a 2017 paper published by the Society of Petroleum Engineers spells out: “Outcomes from casing failures include blowouts, pollution, injuries/fatalities, and loss of the well with associated costs.”  Wells used to produce oil and gas via fracking are different from what are known as “conventional,” or traditionally drilled, oil wells. While a fracked well is initially drilled vertically like a conventional well, at a certain point, the well bore turns and drills horizontally for distances up to 20,000 feet (that's nearly four miles). The well's vertical portion is made up of several layers of steel pipe casing and cement that are designed to protect nearby groundwater from the oil, gas, and fracking fluids that pass through the well. According to the Society of Petroleum Engineers paper, casing failures have been linked to the stresses and high pressures required to complete the fracking process and the industry is grappling with this costly and hazardous problem. This paper identified the problem in depth and used strong language (for engineers), noting, “Incidents of casing failures occurring during fracture stimulation operations are increasing at an alarming rate.”

Columbia Gas investing $33 million in Southeast Ohio  - Columbia Gas says it will invest approximately $33 million to upgrade more than 36 miles of natural gas main lines and 2,500 customer service lines in Southeast Ohio in 2020. The Lawrence County community of Coal Grove is one of the locations on the list to receive upgrades. This work is part of an ongoing commitment by the company to enhance customer safety with 21 major gas line replacement projects this year, according to a news release from Columbia Gas. “We are proactively investing in our infrastructure to ensure customers will continue to have safe and reliable service now and long into the future,” Columbia Gas President Dan Creekmur said in the release. Since the gas line replacement program started, the number of leaks throughout Ohio has fallen by 40 percent. The Southeast Ohio projects are part of the company’s larger 25-year program to invest more than $2 billion to replace over 4,000 miles of pipeline across the state. Projects are currently in progress with 21 projects scheduled this year. Along with Coal Grove, construction is scheduled in the following areas:

Editorial: Dont chase cracker-plant jobs at cost of health, environment - The Columbus Dispatch - This editorial represents the opinion of the Dispatch editorial board, which includes the publisher, editor, editorial page editor and editorial writers.  As Ohio officials do all they can to make a proposed $5 billion petrochemical plant a reality in Belmont County, we hope they are equally determined — and able — to protect the Ohio Valley’s air, water and health.  To people concerned about the environment, climate change and public health, the facility proposed by Thailand-based PTT Global Chemical America is a nightmare. To expect the powers that be to oppose the plant, however, is unrealistic. The word “gamechanging” is used to describe the economic effect it could have on an area of the state that has suffered for decades from the decline of coal. If plans come together, the plant would mean thousands of construction jobs and hundreds of permanent jobs at the plant. The so-called “cracker” plant would take the ethane found in natural gas — produced in abundance via fracking wells in the area — and break the molecules into smaller molecules of ethylene, the root chemical for many plastic products.And the jobs and the building wouldn’t stop with the cracker plant. Its demand for ethane would spur more drilling in the area. There would be processing facilities to separate the ethane from the natural gas, and storage for the ethane destined for the cracker plant. A company called Energy Storage Ventures has said it will begin construction this year on a project to store 2 million barrels of ethane, butane and propane in underground salt caverns near Clarington, Ohio. Tying all that together would be miles of pipeline. With an even-bigger cracker plant under construction in western Pennsylvania and another proposed for West Virginia, a 300-mile stretch of the Ohio River could become a hub of petrochemical and plastics manufacturing. No pollution controls can mitigate the enormous impact a cracker plant, not to mention a built-out petrochemical hub, would have on climate change. One estimate holds that the cracker plant being built in Pennsylvania will essentially replace all the carbon reduction the city of Pittsburgh hopes to achieve by 2030.And what would all these emissions produce? Plastic — the very material that is clogging waterways worldwide. All in all, it seems a high price for Ohio to pay for jobs in an industry known for boom-and-bust cycles.

Beyond Fracking: Oil-and-Gas Industry's Toxic Waste Is Radioactive - Oil-and-gas wells produce nearly a trillion gallons of toxic waste a year. An investigation shows how it could be making workers sick and contaminating communities across America.  In a squat rig fitted with a 5,000-gallon tank, Peter crisscrosses the expanse of farms and woods near the Ohio/West Virginia/Pennsylvania border, the heart of a region that produces close to one-third of America’s natural gas. He hauls a salty substance called “brine,” a naturally occurring waste product that gushes out of America’s oil-and-gas wells to the tune of nearly 1 trillion gallons a year, enough to flood Manhattan, almost shin-high, every single day. At most wells, far more brine is produced than oil or gas, as much as 10 times more. It collects in tanks, and like an oil-and-gas garbage man, Peter picks it up and hauls it off to treatment plants or injection wells, where it’s disposed of by being shot back into the earth. One day in 2017, Peter pulled up to an injection well in Cambridge, Ohio. A worker walked around his truck with a hand-held radiation detector, he says, and told him he was carrying one of the “hottest loads” he’d ever seen. It was the first time Peter had heard any mention of the brine being radioactive.   Many industry representatives like to say the radioactivity in brine is so insignificant as to be on par with what would be found in a banana or a granite countertop, so when Peter demanded his supervisor tell him what he was being exposed to, his concerns were brushed off; the liquid in his truck was no more radioactive than “any room of your home,” he was told. But Peter wasn’t so sure. “A lot of guys are coming up with cancer, or sores and skin lesions that take months to heal,” he says. Peter experiences regular headaches and nausea, numbness in his fingertips and face, and “joint pain like fire.” “It’s all over your hands, and inside your boots, and on the cuticles of your toes, and any cuts you have — you’re soaked,” he says. […] “It’s ridiculous that these drivers are not being told what’s in their trucks,” says John Stolz, Duquesne’s environmental-center director.  “And this stuff is on every corner — it is in neighborhoods. Truckers don’t know they’re being exposed to radioactive waste, nor are they being provided with protective clothing. “Breathing in this stuff and ingesting it are the worst types of exposure,” Stolz continues. “You are irradiating your tissues from the inside out.” The radioactive particles fired off by radium can be blocked by the skin, but radium readily attaches to dust, making it easy to accidentally inhale or ingest. Once inside the body, its insidious effects accumulate with each exposure. It is known as a “bone seeker” because it can be incorporated into the skeleton and cause bone cancers called sarcomas. It also decays into a series of other radioactive elements, called “daughters.” The first one for radium-226 is radon, a radioactive gas and the second-leading cause of lung cancer in the U.S. Radon has also been linked to chronic lymphocytic leukemia. “Every exposure results in an increased risk,” says Ian Fairlie, a British radiation biologist. “Think of it like these guys have been given negative lottery tickets, and somewhere down the line their number will come up and they will die.”

1982 American Petroleum Institute Report Warned Oil Workers Faced 'Significant' Risks from Radioactivity – DeSmog --Back in April last year, the Trump administration’s Environmental Protection Agency decided it was “not necessary” to update the rules for toxic waste from oil and gas wells. Torrents of wastewater flow daily from the nation’s 1.5 million active oil and gas wells and the agency’s own research has warned it may pose risks to the country's drinking water supplies.  On Tuesday, a major new investigative report published by Rolling Stone and authored by reporter Justin Nobel delves deep into the risks that the oil and gas industry’s waste — much of it radioactive — poses to the industry’s own workers and to the public. “There is little public awareness of this enormous waste stream,” Nobel, who also reports for DeSmog, wrote, “the disposal of which could present dangers at every step — from being transported along America’s highways in unmarked trucks; handled by workers who are often misinformed and underprotected; leaked into waterways; and stored in dumps that are not equipped to contain the toxicity.” Additional documents obtained by Nobel and shared with DeSmog show that a report prepared for the American Petroleum Institute (API), the nation's largest oil and gas trade group, described the risks posed by the industry's radioactive wastes to workers as “significant” in 1982 — long before the shale drilling rush unleashed new floods of wastewater from the industry — including waste from the Marcellus Shale, which can carry unusually high levels of radioactive contamination. Oil and gas wells pump out nearly a trillion gallons of wastewater a year, Rolling Stone reported. That’s literally a river of waste — enough to replace all the water flowing from the Mississippi River into the Gulf of Mexico for more than two and a half days. Much of that wastewater, often referred to by the industry as “brine,” carries high levels, not of familiar table salt, but of corrosive salts found deep below the Earth’s surface, as well as toxic compounds and carcinogens. That water can also carry serious amounts of radioactive materials. The Rolling Stone report, labeled “sobering” by the Poynter Institute, described levels of radium as high as 28,500 picocuries per liter in brine from the Marcellus Shale, underlying Pennsylvania, Ohio, New York, and West Virginia, levels hundreds of times as much as the Nuclear Regulatory Commission would allow in industrial discharges from other industries.

 Radioactive Marcellus, Utica well waste flows through 'loophole' - A federal loophole could mean millions of tons and billions of gallons of radioactive natural gas waste are being disposed of as if they were not radioactive. According to the investigation by Rolling Stone, liquid brine from the average Marcellus well contains more than 9,000 picocuries per liter of radium. A picocurie, abbreviated pCi, is equal to the radioactivity of one gram of radium. A nuclear site is not allowed to discharge wastewater above 60 pCi. Melissa Troutman, research and policy analyst for the nonprofit group Earthworks, said the problem is an exemption included in federal law for oil and gas waste decades ago.  "It is exempt from hazardous waste law, and has been since the 1980s," Troutman said. "So for the past 40 years, this waste has been disposed of improperly and has led to water and land contamination as well as public health risks." Brine is used in commercial de-icing products and spread by municipal de-icing trucks, according to the Rolling Stone investigation.  Though the Ohio Department of Transportation uses brine to de-ice state roads, it's not from brine wells, a spokesperson told Mahoning Matters Friday — rather, a traditional mixture of salt in water.The oil industry argues that naturally occurring radioactivity doesn't pose a real threat to humans or the environment. And gas drillers' political allies have said increased regulations would stunt growth at a time when the industry is already troubled by low prices.Troutman said the levels and types of radioactivity in the waste are far more dangerous than what people normally would encounter, particularly when it is concentrated in the processes of production and disposal. She adds there are people in Congress who see this as a serious problem. "At the federal level, there are bills that have been introduced to close the hazardous waste loophole," she said. "The unfortunate thing is, the political will is not there to do so."

Marcellus Shale rig counts steady for '20, way down for '10 - Pennsylvania's number of natural gas drilling rigs held steady as it has for the new year, but it's down sharply from production a year ago. There were 25 drilling rigs operating in Pennsylvania for a second week, according to a tally released weekly by oilfield services company Baker Hughes (NYSE: BKHS). But it shows a big decline from this time a year ago, when there were 48 rigs. The year-to-year drop in the count is due to lower prices for natural gas, which has led to a cut in drilling and related services. Ohio and West Virginia also remained steady, with 10 rigs and 16 rigs respectively. It's down seven year-over-year in Ohio but West Virginia is up one from a year ago.

OSHA fines Philadelphia refinery for safety violations -- Monday, January 20, 2020 -- Federal workplace safety authorities fined the Philadelphia Energy Solutions refinery $132,600 for a string of violations related to the fiery explosions that destroyed the plant last summer.

Philly refinery auction said to attract Chicago developer that rehabs industrial properties - The fate of the bankrupt Philadelphia Energy Solutions refinery complex, shut down since a catastrophic fire and explosion last June, hung in the balance on Friday. At least two bidders attended a closed-door auction conducted Friday at a New York City law firm handling the refinery’s bankruptcy. Results of the auction were not immediately disclosed. The bidders included Philadelphia Energy Industries (PEI), a company formed by former refinery chief executive Philip Rinaldi that wants to resume refining petroleum on the 1,300-acre site, the largest refining complex on the East Coast. According to sources, a second bidder, Hilco Redevelopment Partners, a Chicago real estate firm that specializes in developing old industrial sites into new uses, was also in contention. A spokesman for Hilco declined to comment Friday. Hilco is redeveloping the former Sparrows Point steel mill in Baltimore, a 3,100-acre waterfront site with deep-water access, into an industrial site called Tradepoint Atlantic. Hilco is also remediating several sites of shuttered power-generation stations, including the proposed L Street Station mixed-use property in South Boston. Last year Hilco bought two New Jersey closed coal-fired plants, including one near Trenton, and plans to develop them into industrial ventures. The auction may not necessarily result in a sale. If the refinery’s creditors decide the bids are too low, they could “credit bid” up to the amount they are owed and keep the property for themselves. Cortland Capital Market Services LLC is the lead bank on a $699 million term loan.

‘Their timeline is aggressive’: Hilco plans to clean up polluted South Philly refinery site, city says --Hilco Redevelopment Partners, whose $240 million bid won an auction to acquire the bankrupt Philadelphia Energy Solutions refinery site, aims to move quickly to clean up the 1,300-acre South Philadelphia property and redevelop it into a mixed-use industrial facility, according to city officials.“I think their timeline is aggressive, I’ll put it that way,” Brian Abernathy, the city’s managing director, said in an interview Wednesday. “They want to be in the ground quickly.”  Abernathy, who headed a four-member city government delegation that attended Friday’s six-hour-long auction, said Hilco had done its homework and came well-prepared for negotiations. The Chicago-based company, which specializes in repurposing industrial properties, did not submit a formal plan for the site, but painted its plans in “broad brushes,” he said. “They’ll probably still keep the tank farm and some of the energy logistics that are on-site, but they don’t intend to operate the refinery,” said Abernathy. He said Hilco is likely to develop the site for multiple users, which he said was “exciting” because the property will be less dependent upon a single industry that is susceptible to boom-and-bust cycles. PES’s plans require the approval of U.S. Bankruptcy Court Judge Kevin Gross, who has scheduled a confirmation hearing for Feb. 6. The deadline for creditors to vote on the plan, and for filing any objections to the plan, is Feb. 3. Hilco was one of two finalists bidding on the refinery, which shut down following a June 21 fire and explosion and declared bankruptcy. The 335,000-barrels-a-day refinery was the largest oil-processing facility on the East Coast and had been in operation for 150 years.

PES creditors fight to reject refinery sale to Hilco -  (Reuters) - Creditors of bankrupt Philadelphia Energy Solutions are opposing the sale of its oil refinery to Hilco Redevelopment Partners, saying another developer made a more lucrative bid for the site, according to court documents filed on Thursday. Industrial Realty Group submitted a bid of $265 million during an auction last week to sell the idled refinery site, $25 million more than Hilco’s bid, according to filings by law firm Brown Rudnick LLP in United States Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware. PES did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The refiner announced on Wednesday that it agreed to sell its 335,000 barrel-per-day refinery, the largest and oldest on the U.S. East Coast, to Chicago-based real estate developer Hilco, naming Industrial Realty Group as a back-up bidder. PES’s unsecured creditors, which include companies that had supplied contract work to PES, as well as workers’ unions employed by the refinery, have pushed for a buyer that would restart the complex.

Chicago developer Hilco’s $240 million bid wins auction for bankrupt Philadelphia refinery - Bankrupt Philadelphia Energy Solutions has agreed to sell its shuttered South Philly refinery complex to a Chicago development company with experience repurposing old industrial properties for new uses, likely marking an end to the site’s 150-year-old history as a petroleum refinery. Hilco Redevelopment Partners, a Chicago real estate firm that has acquired old power plant sites in Boston and New Jersey, and is building warehouses on a former steel mill site in Baltimore, agreed to pay $240 million to acquire the 1,300-acre refinery site during a closed-door auction Friday, according to a U PES chief executive Mark Smith announced the deal Tuesday in a memo to employees, saying that Hilco’s affiliate, HRP Philadelphia Holdings LLC, would announce its plans for the site at a later date. “We will continue to maintain the refinery complex, remove the hydrocarbon inventory in the facility, protect the facility and prepare for a safe handoff of the facility to HRP Philadelphia Holdings LLC, which is expected to occur within 60-90 days,” Smith said in his memo.

 South Philly explosion caused by crack in gas main, officials say - Officials say a crack in a 92-year-old natural gas main led to the explosion that devastated a South Philadelphia block last month, killing two people, destroying five rowhouses, and forcing the evacuation of 60 residents. An investigation by the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission into the underlying cause of the crack is ongoing, Fire Commissioner Adam Thiel said at a news conference Thursday. By Dec. 23, four days after the explosion, Philadelphia fire marshals had determined a crack in the gas line, causing natural gas to leak, led to the blast, Thiel said. The state commission’s in-depth investigation is now “exploring the cause and circumstances surrounding this incident, along with whether there are any violations of state or federal pipeline safety regulations," according to a statement from the agency. That investigation could take a year or longer, the commission said.

'We're failing to meet many of our goals,' DEP official says as environmental oversight board passes hefty fee hike -  A state environmental oversight board agreed to increase the permit fee for natural gas drilling by 150 percent, arguing that the hike was needed to fund the state’s regulatory program. During a meeting Tuesday, the Environmental Quality Board hiked the fee to $12,500 for any well, up from $5,000 for non-vertical wells and $4,200 for vertical wells.Even as permit applications have declined from the peak of the gas boom, inspections have gone up, according to Department of Environmental Protection oil and gas chief Scott Perry.While the agency has adopted new policies and digitized inspections to cut costs and increase efficiency, Perry said there isn’t much more that can be done under the current budget.“We’re failing to meet many of our goals and we have IT projects that are going unmet,” Perry said.According to the 2012 state law governing the natural gas industry, the permit fee should “bear a reasonable relationship to the cost of administering this chapter.” The department estimates an annual budget of $25 million. The state’s impact fee — a tax on each well drilled, not on the gas extracted — provides $6 million each year to the DEP for oil and gas regulation. That is a small fraction of the $198 million the fee brought in last year.

Pennsylvania board votes to raise shale well permit fees 150% | Pittsburgh Post-Gazette — Permit fees for shale gas wells in Pennsylvania will more than double under a rule change approved by a state environmental board on Tuesday.The fee to drill a new Marcellus or Utica shale well will rise from $5,000 to $12,500 — the highest in the U.S.  Regulators with the Department of Environmental Protection said said the hike is necessary to maintain the program that permits and inspects the commonwealth’s vast number of new and old wells.Permit fees are the program’s primary source of funding but applications have declined significantly in recent years.At the increased rate, the fee will amount to 0.16% of the $8 million it costs to drill an unconventional well, DEP said.Critics of the increase say it is high enough to discourage companies from drilling new wells and may only compound DEP’s funding problems by driving permit applications even lower.The increase must still be reviewed by the environmental committees in the state House and Senate and Pennsylvania’s Independent Regulatory Review Commission before it can take effect.The department has received far fewer permits than the 2,600 a year it counted on getting the last time it raised fees in 2014. Companies are seeking to drill fewer wells as gas prices have declined and operations have become more efficient. New wells stretch much farther into rock layers underground and extract much more gas from them. Since 2014, DEP’s oil and gas program has shrunk from 226 to 190 employees and its operating costs have been reduced by 38%, Scott Perry, deputy secretary for the Office of Oil and Gas Management, said at an Environmental Quality Board meeting.Mr. Perry said the fee increase is necessary just to maintain the program in its current, reduced state.  He said the program has determined it would need 49 additional positions to meet its goals.The new fees are based on the assumption that DEP will receive 2,000 permit applications a year, but the agency hasn’t hit that target since 2015. Since then, DEP has received an average of 1,750 applications each fiscal year. This fiscal year, it is on track to receive fewer than 1,600. Despite that, Mr. Perry said the program “will have the revenue sufficient to maintain the program at current staffing levels for the next three years.”That is in no small part due to a windfall of $25.6 million that the oil and gas program will get from the $30.6 million fine paid by Energy Transfer Corp. for the September 2018 explosion of the Revolution pipeline in Beaver County.

Veto gas bill, limit pollution - Pollution that flows from conventional gas wells in Pennsylvania is just as toxic as that produced by the newer, deep, fracked wells characteristic of the industry across the Marcellus Shale. Yet, in a case of special interest pandering, many legislators want that pollution to be less lightly regulated than Marcellus Shale pollution. Conventional wells are shallow, vertical wells that were typical prior to the advanced deep-drilling technology that has opened the Marcellus and Utica shales to development. Under a bill sponsored by Senate President Pro Tempore Joseph Scarnati of Jefferson County, shallow well drillers would not face the same requirements as deep-well drillers for reporting spills of polluted brine and crude oil. A 2018 Penn State study of drilling-related brine, which flows to the surface during drilling, usually includes significant amounts of the known carcinogen radium, “often many times above drinking water standards.” It also found that the brine can leach metals, salts and radioactive material into surface or groundwater, soil and air. It makes scant difference to someone affected by groundwater pollution whether the polluting agent generated by a shallow or deep well. Making distinctions based on the depth of the well, or the size of the company responsible for it is not effective environmental regulation, because the regulation is supposed to target the pollution rather than the company. Given what is known and worse, unknown, about drilling-related pollution, it is folly to loosen environmental regulations. Unfortunately, the bill already has passed the Senate and a House committee. Fortunately, Gov. Tom Wolf appears inclined to veto it. “This bill still poses an undeniable risk to the health and safety of our citizens, the environment, and our public resources,” gubernatorial spokesman J.J. Abbott wrote in a statement. The House should reject the bill, but Wolf should follow through on the veto if it passes.

Delaware Riverkeeper seeks rehearing of Adelphia pipeline approval - West Rockhill officials also plan to appeal December’s Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approval of the controversial pipeline project.The Delaware Riverkeeper Network wants a new hearing on the federal approval of an 84-mile natural gas pipeline that has West Rockhill residents and officials riled for nearly two years over concerns about its local impact.The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approved a Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity for Adelphia Gateway LLC, in December, giving the OK for a project converting 50 miles of an existing pipeline from oil to natural gas.The project includes a 10,000-square-foot, 5,625-horsepower compressor station on a 1.5-acre property on Rich Hill Road in West Rockhill, a facility that township residents and officials are opposing.The rehearing petition filed by the network asserts FERC took “a narrow view” of the pipeline’s necessity and failed to account for adverse climate, health and safety impacts on the communities the pipeline passes through.

Gov. Justice Reiterates Support For W.Va. Natural Gas Drillers As Industry Struggles - West Virginia’s top official says the state is prepared to do “anything” to help the state’s struggling oil and natural gas industry. Speaking at the annual winter meeting of the Independent Oil and Gas Association of West Virginia on Wednesday, Jan. 22, Gov. Jim Justice told the crowd of drillers and producers that his administration believes the industry is vital to the state’s economic health and that he’s in lockstep with the industry in supporting legislative relief. “I can't be any more sympathetic,” Justice said. “I do really believe that we're doing things to make things better.”Justice assured the audience he intended to sign House Bill 4091. The bill, which creates an expedited permitting process for drillers, passed in the House and is under consideration in the Senate. He also expressed support for H.B. 4090, which reduces the severance tax on low-producing wells and siphons some of the proceeds toward plugging orphaned wells. Justice vetoed a version of the bill that passed last session.The governor urged natural gas producers to ride out the current record-low gas prices. “If you can survive for two or three more years, the opportunity to the upside for you, for this is off the chart. It's off the blooming chart,” he said. “Because the stars have aligned. Now, it maybe took me a little while to catch up, but I'm there. I'm all in.” Justice was light on specifics.

Poll: Most New Jersey voters want to choose their own home energy - A poll released today by a powerful labor union on energy issues might frighten legislators who come out in support of Gov. Phil Murphy’s plan to eliminate fossil fuel and move to 100% electrification. More than seven out of ten New Jersey voters, 71%, say they are less likely to vote for legislative candidates who support increasing energy and utility costs by 30%, according to a McLaughlin & Associates poll conducted for the Engineers Labor-Employer Cooperative 825 and the International Union of Operating Engineers Local 825. The state Board of Public Utilities is expected to release a final version of the New Jersey Energy Master Plan next week. According to the poll, 67% of New Jersey voters disapprove of a plan that would ban the use of natural gas for homes, businesses and transportation. Just 25% approve. When asked if they would approve of replacing natural gas with a “more environmentally friendly” electric form of energy, the number went to 41% approve and 55% disapprove. “Our polling shows one clear and undeniable fact – New Jersey residents want clean, affordable, and reliable Natural Gas. If next week’s Energy Master Plan includes a moratorium or complete phase-out of Natural Gas, it will be at complete odds with the voters of New Jersey,” said Greg Lalevee, the Operating Engineers business manager and the ELEC825 chairman. “Through this poll, respondents tell us that they’re willing to vote out anyone who seeks to eliminate their access to Natural Gas through a government mandate since it only will increase the price of energy for families and businesses large and small across New Jersey.”

Baker budget ups fines for gas utility violations - -- The Baker administration is looking to sharply increase the fines it can assess on companies that do work on or near natural gas pipelines and to make utilities establish a timeline for replacing leak-prone pipes. In addition to a $5 million outlay for the Department of Public Utilities’ Pipeline Safety Division to ensure natural gas companies are in compliance with safety regulations, the $44.6 billion spending plan Gov. Charlie Baker filed Wednesday includes seven outside sections dealing with gas pipeline safety requirements and fines. The sections would increase fines for Dig Safe violations, emergency response violations and for violations of the state’s pipeline code. They would also eliminate the exemption municipal water companies have from Dig Safe requirements and add new requirements for gas companies’ gas safety enhancement plans, which were introduced under a 2014 gas leaks law. Baker said Wednesday that the gas safety measures are part of his administration’s attempts to shore up the safety of the state’s natural gas infrastructure after the gas explosions and fires that killed one man, razed several homes and destroyed property across Lawrence, Andover and North Andover in September 2018. “I think from our point of view, there were a series of recommendations that were made in the original report that came out around Columbia [Gas] and I think our view was that making those investments would be an important part of our ability to do the work that we need to do here in Massachusetts to make sure that our grid is safe,” the governor said Wednesday when he unveiled his fiscal 2021 spending plan. A company contracted by the Baker administration to examine the safety of natural gas infrastructure in the wake of the Merrimack Valley disaster, Dynamic Risk Assessment Systems Inc., wrote in its initial report last year that Massachusetts’s gas distribution system is “generally reliable” but is made up of a higher proportion of leak-prone pipes, mains, and services made out of cast iron, wrought iron or unprotected steel. Massachusetts has 21,669 miles of natural gas mains or 1.7 percent of the total main mileage in the United States. But Massachusetts’ 3,049 miles of cast iron mains account for 12.4 percent of the nation’s total. The state’s 1.3 million natural gas service lines represent 1.9 percent of the nationwide total, but Massachusetts has 18 percent of the country’s cast iron services.

America Is Awash With Natural Gas and It’s About to Get Worse -  Trump spoke at an industry event of the “astonishing increase” in shale gas production. The Appalachian region has spearheaded a historic expansion, turning the U.S. into the world’s biggest producer while slashing prices for consumers and sounding the death-knell for domestic coal. But the dark side of the boom is increasingly difficult to ignore. Shale drillers are extracting so much gas that it’s overwhelming demand. Prices dipped briefly below $2 per million British thermal units on Friday for the first time since 2016 and traded below the threshold again on Monday. At that level, U.S. producers simply don’t make money. It’s forcing a wave of multibillion-dollar writedowns, layoffs and spending cuts. Still, the industry is powerless to stop a wave of additional gas hitting the market as a byproduct of rising shale oil output in places like the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico. Even exports of liquefied natural gas provide little relief, as the international market is also oversupplied.“The industry is a victim of its own success,” said Devin McDermott, an analyst at Morgan Stanley. “You don’t just have oversupply in the U.S. -- you have oversupply in Europe, oversupply in Asia, and really oversupply across the globe.” Futures for February dropped 4.5% to $1.912/MMBtu on Monday. According to McDermott, U.S. producers need gas to be at least $2.50 in order to generate free cash flow. “In the near-term, we don’t think it’s realistic to see a $2.50 price,” he said.

Warm Weather Allows Prompt Month Natural Gas Prices To Sink Under $2.00 --Warm weather continues to take a heavy toll on the natural gas market, with the long weekend bringing even more changes to the warmer side, enough so that, on a Gas-Weighted Degree Day (GWDD) basis, we are now projecting this January to be the 3rd warmest in our historical dataset, behind only 2006 and 1990.  The pattern has a very "El Niño-like" look, which without any high-latitude blocking leads to warmth across most of the U.S. outside of parts of the South.   Despite the historically low price environment, it is difficult to avoid moving even lower with a high-level warm pattern in the middle of winter. We hit on these points in our "Pre-Close Update" sent out to clients Friday afternoon, taking a slightly bearish stance into the weekend despite Friday's close being almost dead on $2.00 in mid-January with a market that is already heavily short, citing the likelihood of continued warmth taking us lower.  So far, that is exactly what has happened, with prompt month prices currently down in the low $1.90s.  All the while, we continue to see production well under the highs from late November, which along with stronger weather-adjusted power burns has helped tighten supply demand balances.    In a "normal" scenario, this would be increasingly bullish, but this weather pattern is, as shown above, anything but normal, and will continue to rule price action as long as it stays biased strongly to the warmer side of normal.  Can the run of warmth continue well into February, or will we finally see things change enough to stop the natural gas price plunge? We track both weather and fundamentals closely in our daily reports, providing a unique blend of data to present a clearly view of future price action.

Has Natural Gas Hit Rock Bottom? - U.S. natural gas prices fell below $2/MMBtu on Friday for the first time in nearly four years. The gas market is suffering from oversupply, as the shale industry has drilled the market into another bust. The share prices for top gas players were deep into red territory on Friday. Range Resources, for instance, was off by more than 8 percent. The story has been the same for quite a while. Natural gas production has surged more or less for a decade, and much of it was soaked up by new gas-fired power plants, new petrochemical facilities, or otherwise exported via new LNG export terminals. But production continued to climb, and here we are – a mild start to the winter and prices have fallen off a cliff. Part of the problem is the ongoing production increases in the Permian with total disregard to any price signal. Permian drillers are after the oil, leading to continued output increases of associated gas, despite prices often traded at or even below zero. The market has become so depressed that financial pressure in the Marcellus shale is increasing. Chevron took an $11 billion write down in the fourth quarter, much of it the result of its devalued assets in Appalachia. Only days ago, EQT, the largest gas producer in the country, announced a $1.8-billion write down, while Moody’s downgraded the company’s credit rating into junk territory. EQT’s CEO said in December that “a lot of this development doesn’t work as well at $2.50 gas.” Well, if he doesn’t like $2.50 gas, he’s really not going to like sub-$2 gas. Meanwhile, the oversupply issue is not isolated to the United States. The global market for LNG is also increasingly depressed, due to weaker-than-expected demand and the wave of new export capacity that came online in 2019. Spot prices for LNG in Asia – the closely-watched JKM marker – fell below $5/MMBtu, a shockingly low level for winter months. Worse – from the perspective of exporters – prices could fall further still. “JKM is expected to fall close to $3/MMBtu in the months ahead, which would leave the potential for sub-$3/MMBtu assessments on select days this summer,”according to S&P Global Platts Analytics. The problem is that global LNG capacity continues to rise, even as China – who everyone seems to think will gobble up every last cargo – has seen its rate of economic growth slow. Moreover, China is set to see increased volumes of gas imports from the newly started Power of Siberia gas pipeline from Russia. The cycles for the LNG market are slow, which magnifies the boom and busts. The wave of export terminals that came online in 2019 were the result of a wave of investment made earlier in the decade, which itself was an outgrowth of very high prices. LNG supply simply can’t react to short-term swings.

US working natural gas in underground storage decreases by 92 Bcf: EIA | S&P Global Platts — US natural gas working stocks fell by 92 Bcf last week, which was within market expectations, but more than 100 Bcf below the five-year average draw, as Henry Hub winter futures remain below $2/MMBtu. Storage inventories fell to 2.947 Tcf for the week ended January 17, the US Energy Information Administration reported Thursday morning. The pull was more than an S&P Global Platts' survey of analysts calling for an 88 Bcf draw. The withdrawal was well below the 152 Bcf pull reported during the corresponding week in 2019 as well as the five-year average draw of 194 Bcf, according to EIA data. As a result, stocks were 554 Bcf, or 23%, more than the year-ago level of 2.393 Tcf and 251 Bcf, or 9%, more than the five-year average of 2.696 Tcf. Gas prices staged a small rebound Thursday morning after the EIA reported a slightly larger-than-expected storage withdrawal, with February Henry Hub trading 4 cents higher and the balance of the first half of 2020 trading about 2 cents higher. Mild bullishness notwithstanding, gas prices continue to sell off as weather forecasts anticipate continued mild weather in the near term, against the backdrop of a structurally loose supply-demand balance in the longer term. February Henry Hub sank to a low of just $1.89/MMBtu Tuesday, nearly 30 cents lower from a week before.  A forecast by S&P Global Platts Analytics' supply and demand model calls for a much larger draw of 193 Bcf for the week ending January 24, which would decrease the surplus to the five-year average by 50 Bcf. The US has finally seen some real gains in demand this week as lower temperatures across the eastern half of the county have helped drive a more-than-18 Bcf/d increase in total demand compared with the week that ended January 17. Total demand is averaging 124.6 Bcf/d. More than half the gains occurred in the Northeast, where consumption has risen almost 11 Bcf/d week on week. Upstream, supplies have grown as well, but to a much lesser degree, rising 1.3 Bcf/d on the week, according to Platts Analytics. Embedded within the change are several large movements among individual aspects of supply. Onshore production has fallen by 1.5 Bcf/d week on week, much of which is coming from a dip in Texas. The decline in domestic supply has been offset, though, by a nearly 2 Bcf/d rise in net Canadian imports. Platts Analytics' currently expects the heating season to finalize on March 31 with 2 Tcf remaining in storage, exactly 300 Bcf more than the five-year average. 

SUPREME COURT: Pipeline foes: Congress alone can OK trail crossing -- Friday, January 17, 2020 --  Does a footpath count as "land" under federal law, or does it simply "traverse land"?

Virginia Senate panel OKs offshore drilling, fracking bans (AP) — A Virginia Senate committee on Tuesday advanced measures that would ban offshore drilling as well as hydraulic fracturing in much of eastern Virginia. Similar versions of both measures have been proposed in previous years but died in what was then a Republican-controlled General Assembly. Democrats who took control of both chambers of the legislature in November’s elections have pledged to enact stricter environmental laws. “I think elections have consequences, and one of the consequences is a cleaner environment for Virginia,” Michael Town, executive director of the Virginia League of Conservation Voters, said after the votes. The Senate Committee on Agriculture, Conservation and Natural Resources approved Democratic Sen. Scott Surovell’s measure prohibiting hydraulic fracturing — or fracking — in the Eastern Virginia Groundwater Management Area on a 10-5 vote. Fracking opponents say the chemicals involved threaten water supplies and public health. Surovell said that the bill was necessary to protect the Potomac Aquifer, a drinking water source for millions of Virginians, because a company has signed leases to frack in the Taylorsville Basin. Surovell also said he wants to prevent any other company that might seek to acquire a lease.

Broken boring pipe in Straits bottom longer than Enbridge first said -- A rod-like boring pipe Enbridge left in the Straits of Mackinac bottom after it broke last fall is about five times longer than the Canadian oil transport giant initially told state regulators, according to a Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes and Energy official. And whether it poses a hazard — and whether it can be recovered — has not yet been determined, the EGLE official said. Enbridge only last week told EGLE officials that the remaining thin pipe in a collapsed bore-hole on the Straits bottom is about 200 feet long — not the 40 or so feet EGLE says the company told regulators in November. An EGLE official said it was "disconcerting" that Enbridge took two months to tell the state about the incident, and then mischaracterized the pipe piece left in the Straits bottom. "We count on these types of industries to self-report — we don't have staff and equipment to go out and examine with an ROV (remote-operated vehicle) — we don't have an ROV," said Joseph Haas, EGLE's Water Resources Division district supervisor in Gaylord. "It's probably not uncommon that this happens in this type of work — you break equipment. It's the fact that they didn't immediately report it to us that is disconcerting." Critics of Enbridge and its twin, 67-year-old, underwater oil and gas pipelines in the Straits say it's just the latest episode in which the company failed to provide transparency about troubles with its operations to regulators or the public.

Operators continue to find new oil reserves in deepwater Gulf, despite scaled-back drilling campaigns - In this post-downturn era, offshore operators and developers continue to be cautious with their drilling programs in the US Gulf of Mexico. A working rig count in the low-to-mid 20s – a 60% decline since January 2014 – seems to be the new norm. Nevertheless, Gulf operators have pressed forward with their slimmed-down exploration plans. These activities did bring a number of notable discoveries over the past year, most notably in the Miocene and Paleogene plays, in the deepwater Gulf. In April, Shell announced that it had made an oil discovery at the Blacktip prospect in the deepwater Gulf. Located in Alaminos Canyon block 380 in about 6,200 ft (1,890 m) of water, Blacktip is a Wilcox discovery in the Perdido thrust belt, about 30 mi (48 km) from the Perdido platform and Whale discovery. The Blacktip exploration well encountered more than 400 ft (122 m) net oil pay with good reservoir and fluid characteristics. Evaluation is ongoing and appraisal planning is under way to further delineate the discovery and define development options, Shell said. In June, W&T Offshore reported that it had discovered oil at the Gladden Deep prospect in Mississippi Canyon block 800 in the deepwater Gulf. The Gladden Deep well is in about 3,000 ft (914 m) of water and was drilled to a total measured depth of 18,324 ft (5,558 m). It encountered 201 ft (61.3 m) of net oil pay. Based on preliminary analysis of drilling and wireline logging results the recoverable resource is expected to be in line with the pre-drill estimate of 7 MMboe gross, according to partner Kosmos Energy (20% working interest). In August, Talos Energy announced that it had hit oil pay at the Bulleit and Orlov prospects in the deepwater Gulf. At the Bulleit prospect in Green Canyon block 21, the well encountered about 140 ft (43 m) of net true vertical depth (TVD) oil pay in the shallow target, the DTR-10 Sand, and about 110 ft (34 m) of net TVD oil pay in the deeper MP Sand.  At the Orlov prospect in Green Canyon block 200, the well initially encountered about 100 ft (30 m) of net true vertical thickness oil pay in the main target Aspen J sand, as well as additional pay sands in shallower zones along the same trap.  In October, Hess Corp. announced that it had made an oil discovery at the Esox-1 exploration well on Mississippi Canyon block 726 in the deepwater Gulf. Esox-1 was drilled in 4,609 ft (1,405 m) of water and encountered about 191 net ft (58 m) of high-quality oil-bearing Miocene reservoirs. Esox-1 is about 6 mi (10 km) east of the Tubular Bells production facilities.

U.S. gasoline stocks hit record high - U.S. gasoline stockpiles grew for an 11th consecutive week to an all-time high while crude oil and distillate inventories fell last week, the Energy Information Administration said. U.S. gasoline stocks rose by 1.7 million barrels in the week to a record 260 million barrels, the EIA said, compared with analyst expectations for a 3.1 million-barrel rise. Total motor gasoline inventories were about 4% above the five-year average for this time of year, the EIA said. ​ Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 1.2 million barrels in the week to 146 million barrels, versus expectations for a 1 million-barrel rise, the data showed. U.S. Gulf Coast distillate inventories rose 71,000 barrels to 46.8 million barrels, their highest since September 2017. Over the past four weeks, gasoline supplied was down by 1.4% from the same period last year, while distillate demand dropped 8.3% year-on-year.

Louisiana greenlights huge pollution-causing plastics facility in 'Cancer Alley' - The state of Louisiana has issued a series of key air quality permits for a gargantuan proposed petrochemical complex that would roughly double toxic emissions in its local area and, according to environmentalists, become one of the largest plastics pollution-causing facilities in the world.The $9.4bn facility, owned by the Taiwanese chemicals firm Formosa Plastics, would consist of 14 separate plastics plants across 2,300 acres of land in St James parish, a largely African American community in the already heavily polluted area in southern Louisiana known as Cancer Alley. Activists say the plant could release 13m tonnes of greenhouse gases a year, the equivalent of three coal-fired power plants, and would emit thousands of tonnes of other dangerous pollutants, including up to 15,400 pounds of the cancer causing chemical ethylene oxide.The facility has been forcefully opposed by environmental groups and certain local campaigners.The 16 permits issued by Louisiana’s state environment agency (LDEQ) essentially allow Formosa to begin construction, said the LDEQ spokesman Greg Langley. A spokeswoman for Formosa, which is operating the project under a subsidiary, FG LA, said the company would start “site preparation activities” in the first quarter of 2020. This first phase, including soil testing, could take up to a year to complete, the spokeswoman said.The permits had not been made available to the public by Tuesday afternoon. Langley said this was because of the volume of documents, numbering more than 1,000 pages, which were still uploading to the department’s public website. The announcement was met with derision by local campaigners. “We are fighting to protect our homes and our families from this monster, Formosa. We are not going to stop because of this bad decision by the state to grant air permits,” said Sharon Lavigne, the president of the campaign group Rise St James, in a written statement.

A Surge of New Plastic Is About to Hit the Planet  - Companies like ExxonMobil, Shell, and Saudi Aramco are ramping up output of plastic — which is made from oil and gas, and their byproducts — to hedge against the possibility that a serious global response to climate change might reduce demand for their fuels, analysts say. Petrochemicals, the category that includes plastic, now account for 14 percent of oil use, and are expected to drive half of oil demand growth between now and 2050, the International Energy Agency (IEA) says. The World Economic Forum predicts plastic production will double in the next 20 years. “In the context of a world trying to shift off of fossil fuels as an energy source, this is where [oil and gas companies] see the growth,” said Steven Feit, a staff attorney at the Center for International Environmental Law, an advocacy group. And because the American fracking boom is unearthing, along with natural gas, large amounts of the plastic feedstock ethane, the United States is a big growth area for plastic production. With natural gas prices low, many fracking operations are losing money, so producers have been eager to find a use for the ethane they get as a byproduct of drilling. “They’re looking for a way to monetize it,“ Feit said. “You can think of plastic as a kind of subsidy for fracking.” America’s petrochemical hub has historically been the Gulf Coast of Texas and Louisiana, with a stretch along the lower Mississippi River dubbed “Cancer Alley” because of the impact of toxic emissions . Producers are expanding their footprint there with a slew of new projects, and proposals for more. They are also seeking to create a new plastics corridor in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia, where fracking wells are rich in ethane. Shell is building a $6 billion ethane cracking plant — a facility that turns ethane into ethylene, a building block for many kinds of plastic — in Monaca, Pennsylvania, 25 miles northwest of Pittsburgh. It is expected to produce up 1.6 million tons of plastic annually after it opens in the early 2020s. It’s just the highest profile piece of what the industry hails as a “renaissance in U.S. plastics manufacturing,” whose output goes not only into packaging and single-use items such as cutlery, bottles, and bags, but also longer-lasting uses like construction materials and parts for cars and airplanes.

 Formosa Plant May Still Be Releasing Plastic Pollution in Texas After $50M Settlement, Activists Find - After activist Diane Wilson and the San Antonio Estuary Waterkeeper successfully sued Formosa, the company agreed to no longer release even one of the tiny plastic pellets known as nurdles into the region's waterways.   Their suit against Formosa Plastics Corp. USA resulted in a $50-million-dollar settlement and a range of conditions in an agreement known as a consent decree. Key among the conditions was the company's promise to halt releasing the nurdles it manufactures into local waterways leading to the Texas Gulf Coast by Jan. 15. The deal, signed by Judge Hoyt in December, represents the U.S.'s largest settlement in a Clean Water Act lawsuit brought by private individuals against an industrial polluter. The settlement mandates that both Formosa and the plaintiffs agree to a monitor, remediation consultant, engineer, and trustee for ongoing monitoring of the plant.   Wilson gave an update on how requirements of the consent decree were progressing. The volunteer team of nurdle monitors, who have been collecting nurdles discharged by the plant for the last four years, listened eagerly. Wilson said that Formosa had missed the Jan. 15 deadline to deliver the waivers they needed to sign, which would grant them permission to monitor on the company's property along the fence line.  Instead, they headed for the banks of Cox Creek, where Wilson set off in a kayak to check on one of the plant's outfalls.  Within 10 minutes she collected an estimated 300 of the little plastic pellets. Wilson says she will save them as evidence, along with any additional material the group collects, to present to the official — and yet-to-be-selected — monitor.  When Wilson returned from her kayak, she showcased her find: The nurdles she had just collected from the Formosa outfall were bright white, making them easy to distinguish from the older ones littering the bank where she had launched her kayak. She plans to turn them over as evidence of newly discharged nurdles to the official monitor once one is selected in accordance to the consent decree. On that same afternoon, Wilson learned that conservation and community groups in Louisiana had sued the Trump administration, challenging federal environmental permits for Formosa's planned $9.4 billion plastics complex in St. James Parish. The lawsuit was filed in federal court against the Army Corps of Engineers, accusing the Corps of failing to disclose environmental damage and public health risks and failing to adequately consider environmental damage from the proposed plastics plant. Wilson had met some of the Louisiana-based activists last year when a group of them had traveled to Point Comfort and protested with her outside Formosa's plastics plant that had begun operations in 1983. Among them was Sharon Lavigne, founder of the community group Rise St. James, who lives just over a mile and a half from the proposed plastics complex in Louisiana.

Oversupply, low prices may turn LNG boom into a bust in 2020 --Liquefied natural gas prices are poised to test record lows this year thanks to an onslaught of new supply and warmer winter temperatures curbing consumption.The startup of new export projects from Australia to the U.S. has flooded the market, while brimming stockpiles in Europe and an expected slowdown in Chinese demand have dumped cold water on consumption prospects. LNG for spot delivery to North Asia is on track to hit an all-time low this summer, while gas prices in Europe and the U.S. are trading at the weakest seasonal levels since 1999.“The global oversupply of LNG has been building and building and building,” said Ron Ozer, founder of gas-focused hedge fund Statar Capital LLC in New York. “The gas market can’t stomach the oversupply and warm weather, and it’s getting both.”U.S. gas exports have surged amid the nation’s shale boom, but plummeting prices may now throttle back shipments or encourage sustained maintenance while firms weather the storm. Producers and companies with off-take agreements may decide not to load cargoes because prices are too low to earn a profit after accounting for shipping costs.With cargoes from the Gulf of Mexico currently priced around $2.65 per million Btu, cash margins are positive only because of weak U.S. benchmark prices, according to Robert Sims, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie Ltd. There’s a chance that production could be reduced if the spread between benchmark Henry Hub and U.S. Gulf LNG narrows 25 cents, he said. After four years of belt-tightening, the amount of investments last year in new production capacity set a record. Companies including Qatar Petroleum, Novatek PJSC and Venture Global LNG Inc. sanctioned new plants from the U.S. to Russia. But the current wave of additional supply and persistent weak global prices is challenging new projects seeking final investment decisions, according to Morgan Stanley. The bank reduced its outlook for the number of projects reaching FID and revised lower its new supply outlook for the middle of the decade. The low price environment will also likely force Qatar to stagger or postpone its planned 64% capacity expansion, currently scheduled by 2027, according to FGE.

US gas exporters fight to survive supply glut - Multibillion dollar gas export projects that are central to the Trump administration’s push for “energy dominance” are locked in a battle for survival as prices fall and the market faces a supply glut. Liquefied natural gas is a critical outlet for the US’s surfeit of cheap natural gas and the country is on track to pull ahead of Australia and become the world’s biggest exporter by 2024, the International Energy Agency has said. Companies ranging from Royal Dutch Shell and Total to utilities and smaller independent groups are racing into the LNG export market, but planned capacity exceeds what is likely to be needed. The consultancy McKinsey predicts that only one in 10 proposed export terminals will ever be built. Last year, global importers received 346m tonnes of LNG — gas condensed to a liquid so it can be loaded on to tankers — according to S&P Global Platts. The volume will rise by 100m tonnes to 446m by 2025, it estimates.  Yet in the US alone, 14 unbuilt export terminals with government approval would add 160m tonnes a year of capacity, according to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Another 90m tonnes’ worth of projects are still awaiting approval. Last year, three US projects totalling 30m tonnes in annual capacity received final investment approval from their sponsors. Plunging natural gas prices are also complicating the outlook for companies developing LNG export terminals, as the US benchmark price fell to its lowest level in four years on Monday. Cheaper US gas helps in the intensifying battle for market share, but also makes developers’ projects look less financially viable. Companies are already cutting processing fees, burning cash and letting construction deadlines slip. The global LNG glut has also pushed down prices outside the US as customers use their negotiating power with exporters. The Japan-Korea Marker, a regional benchmark, has been trading at about $5 per million British thermal units, well below the level when most US export projects were conceived. “There’s no question that the marketplace has become increasingly competitive,” said Jeff Martin, chief executive of Sempra Energy, a US company developing LNG terminals. US projects face growing foreign competition from countries including Qatar, the largest and cheapest exporter, which recently confirmed plans to increase output from 77m tonnes to 126m by 2027. Mozambique is entering the market with a 13m tonnes per annum project and Nigeria said in late December that it would raise output from 22.5m tonnes to more than 30m by 2024.

LNG plant explosion raises concerns about federal oversight -- Tuesday, January 21, 2020 --  Kinder Morgan Inc. is facing a $55,000 fine in connection with a confined explosion in 2018 at its liquefied natural gas export plant near Savannah, Ga., raising safety questions about the facilities as gas exports begin to accelerate.

Trade Deal Impacts the Energy Sector: LNG to Gain the Most? - The Sino-U.S. trade dispute, which threatened the global economy for around two years, has come to an end with the much-anticipated Phase-One trade deal on Jan 15. The signing of the deal was the first tangible indication of de-escalation of the trade brawl between the United States and China, the two largest trading countries.  While the Asian giant has agreed to purchase more goods and services from America, Washington has pledged to cut some tariff on Chinese imports. Notably, the U.S. energy sector is poised to gain heavily from this agreement as an export revival is expected. Of the additional $200-billion purchase of U.S. goods over the next two years (keeping 2017 imports as the base level), $52.4 billion will likely come from the energy sector. Per the deal, China will purchase $18.5 billion worth of energy products this year, followed by $33.9 billion imports in 2021. The energy sector stands second only to the manufacturing sector, which will likely witness $77.7 billion of exports.  Among the energy products such as liquefied natural gas (LNG), crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, LNG is expected to gain the most from the deal. Following the U.S. shale revolution, abundance of natural gas in the domestic market and growing demand for cleaner energy sources globally have led to the development of several LNG terminal projects in the past few years. As such, the Washington-Beijing deal can open up a huge market for the U.S. LNG industry. While China is set to become the biggest LNG importer by the end of the decade, the United States is likely to be the largest exporter by 2025, ahead of Qatar and Australia. This makes the two countries a perfect fit even though the whole vision is largely dependent on the fate of the existing 25% Chinese LNG tariff. This was levied during the trade war and its future is still uncertain.

Exclusive: Sinopec to review potential $16 billion U.S. gas deal with Cheniere - sources - (Reuters) - China’s Sinopec, expected to be the next major Chinese buyer of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG), is planning to review terms of a potential $16 billion supply deal with Cheniere Energy Inc after a sharp drop in LNG prices, industry officials said. That could delay sign-off on a deal that would help Beijing meet ambitious targets it set for U.S. energy purchases in a Phase 1 trade agreement it signed with the United States on Wednesday. Sinopec, officially named China Petroleum & Chemical Corp, and Houston-based Cheniere had been expected to sign the 20-year deal once a trade truce was reached between Beijing and Washington. However, the LNG market has shifted since news of Sinopec and Cheniere’s negotiations became public early last year. In the intervening period, the U.S.-China trade war sapped Chinese purchases of U.S. LNG, and several other gas suppliers, including Qatar, the lowest-cost producer, decided to build new export plants. That coming supply would add to an existing glut that has caused gas prices to collapse to their lowest levels in years and could keep them suppressed - giving Sinopec additional leverage with Cheniere. Both companies declined to comment. A source familiar with the talks said many items needed to be reviewed as U.S. gas prices have more than halved since 2018. “Sinopec is talking to several other U.S. suppliers,” said a second source. “It’s really not clear at this stage what will come out.” ADVERTISEMENT

Mission Impossible: China can't meet its commitments on U.S. crude, LNG, coal - Russell - (Reuters) -  The more you delve into the details of China’s commitment to buy an additional $52.4 billion in U.S. energy over the next two years, the more it becomes apparent the goal is unachievable, even with the best will in the world. As part of the “Phase 1” trade truce between Beijing and Washington, China undertook to buy energy over and above a $9.1 billion baseline of U.S. imports in 2017, with a split of an extra $18.5 billion in 2020 and $33.9 billion in 2021. In practical terms this means China’s imports from the United States this year would have to be more than double past record monthly imports of U.S.-sourced crude oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and coal. If that already seems difficult, it would take a tripling of the best-ever months to meet the 2021 target. As part of the earlier tit-for-tat tariffs, China imposed a 5% import tax on U.S. crude, 25% on LNG and 25% on coal. These tariffs alone make any imports of U.S. energy uncompetitive, and therefore unlikely unless Beijing is prepared to use its muscle to force state-owned oil refineries, natural gas utilities and steelmakers to pay higher than market rates for U.S. cargoes. There is so far no sign that Beijing is about to remove the tariffs, or issue waivers, and without this the expected ramp-up in purchases of U.S. energy is a non-starter. If China boosted imports of U.S. crude to more than 1 million barrels per day (bpd) - worth around $21.4 billion at the current price of West Texas Intermediate futures - it would present a challenge in physically moving that amount of oil from the U.S. Gulf coast to China. Given that a very large crude carrier (VLCC) holds about 2 million barrels, it would mean 15 of these vessels making the trip every month. While U.S. export terminals may be able to handle this volume, there remain questions over the availability of these vessels and the potential costs of sailing them back empty to the United States to pick up more cargoes. VLCCs are also too big to transit the Panama Canal, likely meaning a longer sea voyage around the bottom of Africa, adding to costs. The economics of shipping crude on smaller vessels that can transit the Panama Canal are also challenging, given such ships can hold only around 600,000 barrels and would have to pay the relatively high canal fees. Then there is the question of whether China’s refineries can use the volumes of U.S. crude that would be required to meet the terms of the deal. Many Chinese refineries are optimized to process heavy, sour grades of crude, such as those from the Middle East, rather than the lighter, sweet oil typically exported by the United States.China does import light crude, taking some 270,000 bpd from the United Kingdom last year, 235,000 bpd from Malaysia, 152,000 bpd from Libya and 44,000 bpd from Nigeria, according to Refinitiv data. If China were to buy more than 1 million bpd of U.S. crude, it would have to stop buying most of the light crude it now gets from other countries. Not only would this disrupt global trade flows and relationships, it also raises the question as to whether Chinese refiners, and U.S. crude exporters, would want to become so reliant on each other, rather than having a diverse range of trading partners.

McDermott Hits Freeport LNG Milestone - The second liquefaction train at Freeport LNG Development, L.P.’s Freeport LNG project on the Texas Gulf Coast has begun commercial operations, McDermott International, Inc. reported Friday. McDermott and Chiyoda International Corp. are members of a Zachry Group-led engineering and construction joint venture developing various phases of Freeport LNG. “We continue to advance the Freeport LNG Project with another significant accomplishment, the commercial operation of Train 2,” Mark Coscio, McDermott’s senior vice president for North, Central and South America, commented in a written statement emailed to Rigzone. “Congratulations to the joint venture project team who has maintained a commitment to safety and quality. Now we turn our full attention to delivery of the final train.” Previously, Zachry and McDermott conducted pre-front-end engineering and design (FEED) and FEED work to support the early development of trains 1 and 2 at Freeport LNG, McDermott stated. It added that Chiyoda later became a co-venturer for the Train 3 project. According to McDermott, the project scope includes:

• Three pre-treatment trains
• A liquefaction facility with three trains
• A second loading berth
• A 165,000-cubic-meter full-containment LNG storage tank.

McDermott noted that Freeport LNG Train 3 is slated to begin producing LNG in the first quarter of this year. Last month it reported that Train 1 had begun commercial operations.

LNG will be much cheaper in 2020. Here's why and how it affects Texas - Liquified natural gas is forecast to trade for much less in 2020. The U.S. Energy Information Agency said in a report Wednesday it expects lower natural gas prices this year as production is projected to outpace demand. In its January 2020 Short-Term Energy Outlook, the Energy Information Administration predicted average U.S. natural gas prices will be 9% lower in 2020 than in 2019. That'll be because of continued production growth, the agency says. So, what will that mean for energy-rich South Texas, home to some of the nation's largest LNG exporters? Increased production of natural gas should meet the growing domestic and global demand for clean natural gas, said Todd Staples, president of the Texas Oil and Gas Association. LNG exports are an important part of the industry’s impact on the state, creating jobs and bolstering local and state economies, while also strengthening the global energy market and helping enhance America’s national security interests, Staples said. "As more pipelines come online connecting the prolific Permian Basin with the Gulf Coast, our capacity to move this high-demand, abundant and affordable resource overseas grows, allowing clean natural gas from the U.S. to replace older, less desirable forms of energy across the globe in places like China and India," Staples said. Cheniere Energy may be an example of some of that production growth. The Houston company is the largest U.S. producer and exporter of LNG. It has a permit for three production units at its Gregory facility off State Highway 35 and is waiting for a permit to construct seven mid-scale production units, or trains. Together, they will be able to produce 9.5 million metric tons of LNG per year. Last week, Cheniere announced it had been cleared by federal regulators to return one of the two storage tanks at its Sabine Pass LNG export facility back into service. The tank, near Lake Charles, Louisiana, had been offline since a leak there nearly two years ago.

Newly formed Houston pipeline company lands $400 million in financing -- A newly formed Houston pipeline company has landed $400 million in financing from San Antonio private equity firm EnCap Flatrock Midstream. Launched just before Thanksgiving and headquartered off Post Oak Boulevard in Houston's Galleria district, Edgewater Midstream is seeking to build crude oil, refined products and other bulk liquid pipelines.The company plans to use the $400 million to buy, build and operate pipelines and storage terminals in petroleum trading hubs and demand centers in North America where development in the shale basins in Texas and elsewhere has allowed the United States to grow production and exports.“Changing dynamics in the North American petroleum market present attractive opportunities for Edgewater,” the company's CEO Stephen Smith said in a statement.Joining Smith at Edgewater are former Motiva Enterprises executive oil trader Brian Thomason and Mike Truby, a former senior vice president with the San Antonio pipeline company NuStar Energy.“When forming Edgewater, we recognized that societal, technological and policy trends are reshaping the arena in which traditional oil and gas midstream businesses operate," Smith said. "Our team embraces new technologies and environmentally sustainable practices.” Headquartered in San Antonio with offices in Oklahoma City and Houston, EnCap Flatrock Midstream manages $9 billion for a broad group of institutional investors.The private equity firm is currently making commitments to new management teams from EFM Fund IV, a $3.25 billion fund.

Schlumberger Posts $10B Loss in 2019 - Schlumberger Ltd. posted a $10.1 billion loss in 2019, despite relatively flat year-on-year revenues, according to the oilfield services giant’s year-end earnings released Friday. Schlumberger CEO Olivier Le Peuch noted 2019 revenues totaled $32.9 billion and called the company’s overall performance positive, namely in the international markets. The company’s revenues for drilling and reservoir characterization benefited from their international market exposure, posting 5 percent and 2 percent year-over-year increases, respectively. But North American revenues fell 10 percent year-over-year to $10.8 billion, driven largely by land market weaknesses. The company began a strategic review of its North American land market in Oct. 2019 after a weak third quarter earnings. “During the year, we recognized material pretax charges driven by market conditions, particularly in North America. As these charges were largely noncash and primarily related to goodwill, intangible assets and fixed assets, they did not impede our ability to generate strong cash flow as we demonstrated in the second half of the year,” Le Peuch said. For fourth quarter of 2019, Schlumberger saw revenues of $8.2 billion, a 4 percent drop from 3Q. International revenue of $5.7 billion grew 2 percent sequentially and 8 percent year-over-year. However, North America revenue was $2.5 billion, a 14 percent sequential decline due to customer budget exhaustion and cash flow constraints. In its North America land market, Schlumberger implemented what it refers to as the “scale-to-fit” strategy, which includes reducing capacity and restructuring the company’s operations.“In North America, we are continuing to scale-to-fit our organization and portfolio by repurposing or exiting underperforming business units, focusing on asset-light operations and expanding our technology access business models,”  Schlumberger said it expects the OPEC+ production cuts agreed upon in December to limit investment and activity, namely in Russia and the Middle East, during the first half of 2020. And the slowing growth of North American production is likely to cause tightness in the market and further stimulate international operators to step up their investments in the second half of 2020 and beyond.

Schlumberger lays off 1,400 amid surgical cuts to restore profitability in U.S. shale - The troubled U.S. shale industry is not out of the woods — signaling potential trouble ahead for Houston’s economy. Schlumberger, the largest oil field services company, said Friday it lost $10.1 billion in 2019, laid off 1,400 workers in the fourth quarter, closed facilities, pulled hydraulic fracturing fleets from the field and plans to sell assets. Experts say Schlumberger’s showing sets low expectations for other energy companies preparing to report year-end results and signals that they haven’t adapted to oil prices in the range of $50 to $60 a barrel — too low for many to break even. For the Houston region, which is home to the Paris company’s principal offices, further industry layoffs and spending cuts could put a damper on the local economy. The energy industry’s struggles have already led the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas to dramatically revise the region’s job growth in the second quarter of 2019 from a robust 4 percent to just a half-percent. More downward revisions are likely. For Schlumberger, the ongoing shale slump resulted in a 10 percent decline in North American revenue in 2019, even as the company saw 8 percent growth internationally. “These macro-conditions will continue,” Schlumberger CEO Olivier Le Peuch said during a Friday morning call with investors. Schlumberger is not alone in feeling the pain as the slowdown in the U.S. shale fields continues. Other oil field service companies are responding by idling equipment and laying off employees. Its Houston competitors Halliburton, National Oilwell Varco and Pumpco Energy Services and the Houston oil field equipment-maker Stewart and Stevenson laid off more than 1,000 employees in November and December. Leaked emails in early January revealed that Houston oil company Occidental Petroleum plans to implement “broad layoffs” in response to its $38 billion acquisition of Anadarko Petroleum. Days later, Houston oil company Apache Corp., oil field services company Enterprise Offshore Drilling and oil equipment-maker Valerus Field Solutions reported that they were cutting a combined 600 jobs. Schlumberger’s 2019 loss follows a $2.2 billion profit in 2018. In the fourth quarter alone, the company’s profit dipped 33 percent, falling to $333 million from $498 million in the previous year while revenue remained steady at $8.2 billion.

IEEFA update: The terrible, horrible, no good, very bad year for oil and gas - Was 2019 the year the music died?   2019 was an especially difficult year for the oil and gas industry.  The energy sector (which does not include renewable energy) finished dead last in the S&P 500, the second year in a row it has held that distinction. In a year of improving oil prices, the energy sector still finished firmly in last place, with a 7 percent gain compared to a 29 percent gain overall for the S&P 500. The next worst-performing sector was health care, which posted a 19 percent gain.  The industry continued to collapse in value, relative to the broader stock market. The oil and gas sector now comprises 4.3% of the S&P 500 index, compared to 28% in the 1980s.   Throughout the year, oil and gas markets remained over-supplied. Oil prices began the year at $55 per barrel and ended the year 24 percent higher, at $68 per barrel.  Natural gas prices remained below $3 mmbtu all year long. The oil price increases were not enough to lift investor interest and persistent low prices for natural gas continued as rising supply outpaced rising demand. (detailed chronology follows)

The Great American Shale Oil & Gas Bust: Fracking Gushes Bankruptcies, Defaulted Debt, and Worthless Shares -  Following the sharp re-drop in oil and natural gas prices in late 2018, bankruptcy filings in the US by already weakened exploration and production companies , oilfield services companies, and “midstream” companies (they gather, transport, process, or store oil and natural gas) jumped by 51% in 2019, to 65 filings, according to data compiled by law firm Haynes and Boone. This brought the total of the Great American Shale Oil & Gas Bust since 2015 in these three sectors to 402 bankruptcy filings. The debt involved in these bankruptcies in 2019 doubled from 2018 to $35 billion. This pushed the total debt listed in these bankruptcy filings since 2015 to $207 billion. The chart below shows the cumulative total debt involved in these bankruptcies since 2015. But this does not include the much larger losses suffered by shareholders that get mostly wiped out in the years before the bankruptcy as the shares descend into worthlessness, and that then may get finished off in bankruptcy court.The banks, which generally had the best collateral, took the smallest losses; bondholders took bigger losses, with unsecured bondholders taking the biggest losses. Some of them lost most of their investment; others got high-and-tight haircuts; others held debt that was converted to equity in the restructured companies, some of which soon became worthless again when the company filed for bankruptcy a second time. The old shareholders took the biggest losses. The Great American Fracking Bust started in mid-2014, when the price of WTI dropped from over $100 a barrel to below $30 a barrel by early 2016. Then the price began to recover, going over $70 a barrel in September and October 2018. But then it began to re-plunge. By the end of 2018, WTI had dropped to $47 a barrel. Two major geopolitical events in the Middle East – the attack on Saudi Aramco’s oil facilities last September and the US assassination of Iranian Major General Qasem Soleimani – that would have shaken up oil markets before, only caused brief ripples, quickly squashed by the onslaught of surging US production. At the moment, WTI trades at $56.08 per barrel, which is still below where the shale oil industry can survive long-term: And 2020 is starting out terrible for natural gas producers. The price of natural gas has plunged to $1.90 per million Btu at the moment, a dreadfully low price where no one can make any money. Producers in shale fields that produce mostly gas, such as the Marcellus, are in deeper trouble still, because oil, even at these prices, would be a lot better than just natural gas. Producing areas with constrained takeaway capacity (it takes a lot longer to build pipelines than to ramp up production) are subject to local prices, which can be lower still. In some areas, such as the Permian in Texas and New Mexico, the most prolific oil field in the US, where natural gas is a byproduct of oil production, limited takeaway capacity has caused local prices to collapse, and flaring to surge. The chart shows the spot price for delivery at the Henry Hub:

The “Twin Threats” Facing Big Oil -- The global oil and gas industry is facing the “twin threats” of the loss of profitability and the loss of social acceptability as the climate crisis continues to worsen. The industry is not adequately responding to either of those threats, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA). “Oil and gas companies have been proficient at delivering the fuels that form the bedrock of today’s   energy system; the question that they now face is whether they can help deliver climate solutions,” the IEA said.The report, whose publication was timed to coincide with the World Economic Forum in Davos, critiques the oil industry for not doing enough to plan for the transition. The IEA said that companies are spending only about 1 percent of their capex on anything outside of their core oil and gas strategy. Even the companies doing the most are only spending about 5 percent of their budgets on non-oil and gas investments.There are some investments here and there into solar, or electric vehicle recharging infrastructure, but by and large the oil majors are doing very little to overhaul their businesses. The top companies only spent about $2 billion on solar, wind, biofuels and carbon capture last year.Before even getting to the transition risk due to climate change, the oil industry was already facing questions about profitability. Over the past decade the free cash flow from operations at the five largest oil majors trailed the total sent to shareholders by about $200 billion. In other words, they cannot afford to finance their operations and also keep up obligations to shareholders. Something will have to change. But, of course, as climate policy begins to tighten, oil demand growth will slow and level off. Most analysts say that it won’t require a big hit to demand in order for the financial havoc to really begin to devastate the balance sheets of the majors. Demand only needs to stop growing. The IEA said there are things the industry can do right now – and should have done a long time ago. Roughly 15 percent of the energy sector’s total greenhouse gas emissions comes from upstream production. “Reducing methane leaks to the atmosphere is the single most important and cost-effective way for the industry to bring down these emissions,” the IEA said. But, the Permian is flaring more gas than ever, and methane leaks at every stage of the extraction and distribution process. Drillers have promises improvements, but the industry’s track record to date is not good. Meanwhile, the IEA also noted that while attention is often focused on the oil majors, national oil companies (NOCs) account for more than half of global oil production. The majors only account for about 15 percent.

Oil and gas firms must invest in clean energy solutions to survive: IEA - Oil and gas companies put their own survival at risk if they fail to adapt to providing clean-energy solutions to the world, the International Energy Agency said in a report Monday. The Paris-based IEA said the largest oil and gas companies spend less than 1 percent of their total capital dollars on renewable energy and clean-energy projects. That trend must change quickly, the agency said in its new report on energy transitions. "No energy company will be unaffected by clean energy transitions," said Fatih Birol, IEA executive director. "Every part of the industry needs to consider how to respond. Doing nothing is simply not an option." The biggest and easiest adjustment that oil and gas firms can make is cut down on their methane emissions, which is a big problem in areas such as West Texas' booming Permian Basin. Methane, the primary component of natural gas, is a potent greenhouse gas that's often released into the atmosphere - intentionally or not - while producing the more valuable crude oil from wells."Around 15 percent of global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions come from the process of getting oil and gas out of the ground and to consumers," Birol said. "A large part of these emissions can be brought down relatively quickly and easily." Reducing methane leaks is the single most important and cost-efficient way for energy companies to reduce emissions, the report said. The oil and gas industry also has the technical know-how to advance renewable energy worldwide, especially when it comes to areas like offshore wind where energy firms have to most experience operating in deeper waters. Norway-based Equinor, a major oil and gas firm, for instance has become a leader in offshore wind development.

Proposed 626-mile pipeline would transit much of the Concho Valley -Landowners along a 626-mile swath of Texas and Louisiana began receiving letters last month from Houston-based Tellurian Inc. relating to the proposed Permian Global Access Pipeline. The project is being engineered with an eye on transmitting 2-billion cubic-feet of natural gas per day from West Texas to the Lake Charles area by late 2023 or early 2024. According to Joi Lecznar, Tellurian’s vice president for public affairs and communication, the concept was proposed in 2017 as part of the company’s wider strategy to form a $7 billion pipeline network along with the proposed Driftwood Liquified Natural Gas Terminal in Louisiana. The pipeline proposals are expected to create about 15,000 jobs during the construction phases, according to Tellurian. If everything goes according to plan, the pipeline should be a modern marvel of engineering, and Lecznar said planners have carefully selected a path that will have minimal impact on forests, wetlands and developments along the shortest possible route. Along the entire length, the preferred route would cut through 257-miles of open land, 137-miles of agricultural land, 80-miles of developed land, 151-miles of forest and 1 mile of open water with 80 water crossings. According to initial regulatory filings, the proposed route would require 253-miles of new right-of-way while using 373-miles of adjacent existing right-of-way corridors. This path begins at the Waha Gas Hub in northern Pecos County and traverses Crane, Upton, Reagan, Irion, Tom Green, Concho, McCulloch, San Saba, Mills, Lampassas, Coryell, McClennan, Falls, Limestone, Robertson, Leon, Houston, Trinity, Polk, Tyler, Jasper and Newton counties before entering Louisiana. Along the entire length, the proposed route would cut through 257-miles of open land, 137-miles of agricultural land, 80-miles of developed land, 151-miles of forest and 1-mile of open water. This includes, 80 perennial waterbody crossings, 19 of which are major crossings of 100-feet or more. The path includes three designated natural and scenic river crossings, and 24 ponds. The proposed Permian Global Access Pipeline would cross Spring Creek in Irion County just east of US Highway 67 and south of Farm-to-Market Road 72. (The Dove Creek label on the map is a mistake acknowledged by the company.)

Water district joins in fight against natural gas pipeline -A small but determined group of opponents to Kinder Morgan’s Permian Highway Pipeline gathered in downtown Kyle for the first of two protests last week. Carrying signs that said “Safe pipelines don’t exist” and “Clean energy now,” they encouraged passing motorists to honk their support, and many did as they passed the corner of Center and Burleson. At issue is the routing of the 42-inch, natural gas pipeline through some of the most environmentally-sensitive areas of the Texas Hill Country, putting in jeopardy the Edwards and Trinity aquifers, all the springs they produce and species they support. The latest salvo in the ongoing war between the company, landowners, environmental groups and governmental entities came Jan. 16, when the Barton Springs Edwards Aquifer Conservation District (BSEACD) voted to join a lawsuit against Kinder Morgan, the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service (USFWS) and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) that alleges violations of the Endangered Species Act. Specifically, the legal action argues there “is not a reasonable assurance that the aquifers will be protected during the construction and operation of the pipeline.” The project has met with stiff opposition ever since the energy giant began approaching Central Texas landowners in late 2018. Because they are considered infrastructure, pipelines companies have the power of eminent domain. Because it is completely within the state of Texas, the project does not require approval from any state agency except the Railroad Commission. Plaintiffs in the suit say the actions of Kinder Morgan – which has already begun construction at the west end of the pipeline – is “attempting to avoid” steps including obtaining a biological opinion from USFWS, the preparation of an incidental take permit and the creation of a habitat conservation plan, “both of which are called for when any action – direct or indirect – presents a signifiant threat to a species or its habitat in wetlands under the USACE’s jurisdiction as well as in uplands on private lands.”

Barton Springs group to join legal battle against Kinder Morgan pipeline - The Barton Springs Edwards Aquifer Conservation District has voted to join an endangered species lawsuit that will be filed to halt the construction of a $2 billion natural gas pipeline through portions of the Texas Hill Country. The district is the latest to support the legal action against the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and Houston pipeline company Kinder Morgan. With Kinder Morgan's planned Permian Highway Pipeline routed through part of the district's territory in Hays County, opponents fear that the project will harm the Edwards Aquifer and endangered and threatened species that depend on its waters such as the Texas blind salamander, Barton Springs salamander, Austin Blind salamander, San Marcos salamander, fountain darter, Comal Springs dryopid beetle and the Comal Springs riffle beetle.Designed to move 2.1 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day from the Permian Basin of West Texas to the Katy Hub near Houston, the proposed route takes the 42-inch pipeline through the picturesque Texas Hill Country, where the project faces stiff opposition. Kinder Morgan declined to comment but has maintained that the pipeline route was carefully chosen to affect the fewest number of landowners. The company said it held several public meetings before moving forward with the project. Under Texas state law, pipelines require an easement that must be kept clear. Kinder Morgan designed the proposed pipeline route to include a 600-foot-wide corridor that allows for some flexibility and adjustments. The company contends the pipeline would generate nearly $1 billion annually to state and county governments and unlock production bottlenecks in the Permian Basin — allowing leaseholders to earn more than $2 billion in annual royalties for landowners, school districts and counties.

Integrity tests done on Arkansas oil pipeline that ruptured (AP) — A company tested the integrity of a segment of pipeline that has been idle since it ruptured in 2013, spilling 5,000 barrels of crude oil in a Arkansas neighborhood and causing more than $57 million in damage. The tests conducted on the Permian Express pipeline from Wednesday through Friday suggest pipeline operator Energy Transfer Partners LLC is considering reopening it for the first time since the spill in the Mayflower. But company officials declined to tell the Hot Springs Sentinel-Record when or if it planned to do so. "We are performing integrity tests to ascertain the status of the pipeline as it has been inactive since 2013," company spokeswoman Amanda Gorgueiro said in an email. "As with all of our pipelines, these tests are performed per PHMSA (Pipeline and Hazard Materials Safety Administration) regulations." The Dallas-based company, which acquired the pipeline in 2016 through a joint venture with Exxon Mobil, notified Central Arkansas Water of the inspection, utility CEO Tad Bohannon said Thursday. Energy Transfer is not legally obligated to tell the water utility or the public if it tests or reopens the pipeline, but Bohannon said he has been in constant contact with the company and hopes the process will remain transparent. Faulkner County Judge Jim Baker said the spill greatly affected the Mayflower community, but he believed the pipeline would be regulated enough to ensure safety. "You always have that concern," Baker said. "I don't think it would open without it being serviceable and sound." The pipeline, formerly known as the Pegasus Pipeline, stretches from south Texas to Illinois. It runs through 13 miles of the Lake Maumelle watershed, which is the largest drinking water reservoir in Arkansas and provides drinking water to about half a million people. It also runs through 20 smaller watersheds in communities across Arkansas. 

Whole Neighborhoods Destroyed In Houston Plant Explosion- Multiple Fatalities, 1 Still Missing - Houston was rocked by a large explosion in the early dark hours of Friday morning, which could be felt for miles across the city, when a manufacturing facility in the northwest erupted in a massive fireball. Houston police have confirmed that at least two people died in the blast, with one plant employee still missing, and a criminal investigation is underway as to the cause — though there's no evidence thus far to suggest an intentional act or terrorism was involved. Damage to homes was reported up to a half-mile away after it occurred at about 4:15am, some 18-miles away from the downtown area, though people reported being jolted from their sleep for miles across the city. Later in the morning Friday multiple people were reported hospitalized, and others may still be missing. "We have no evidence at this point ... that an intentional act is involved. Having said that, part of our protocol is always to (start) a criminal investigation" Houston police chief Art Acevedo said, who also ruled out terrorism. "It's going to take days, if not weeks or months, to get a final determination of what's going on here." Early reports suggest propylene tanks ignited, which is a common but extremely flammable gas used at manufacturing plants. The explosion occurred at Watson Grinding and Manufacturing where emergency crews are still trying to contain a possible gas leak. Local videos showed a large fireball rising from the site of the plant in the blast's immediate aftermath. Officials say the blast was so big it appeared on weather radar.

2 people killed in an explosion at a Houston manufacturer that shook the city and damaged homes  - Two people were killed in Friday morning's explosion at a northwest Houston manufacturing business, police said -- a blast shook much of the city, damaged buildings up to a half mile away and left some residents at least temporarily displaced. The explosion rocked Watson Grinding and Manufacturing around 4:15 a.m. CT (5:15 a.m. ET), tearing apart several structures while sending debris and shock waves much farther, pushing some nearby homes off their foundations, officials said.  "This is, in essence, a disaster area right now," Houston Police Chief Art Acevedo said of the area roughly an 18-mile drive northwest of downtown.The two men who died in the blast were Frank Flores and Gerardo Castorena, both employees of the company, Houston Fire Chief Samuel Pena said.Pena said Friday evening that 214 homes were damaged in some way and, according to an initial rough estimate, about 50 were destroyed.Responding to reports that the explosion was caused by the gas propylene, a fire department spokeswoman told CNN Friday afternoon: "We don't know that propylene caused the explosion, only that propylene tanks are on site and were involved in the explosion and fire." The debris field is so widespread -- officials estimated between a quarter-mile to a mile away -- police have asked residents for help with a potentially grim task: looking for human remains and other debris in their yards and on roofs.

Two years after five killed Oklahoma well explosion, few changes in safety rules - Two years ago, an oil well near a small Oklahoma town exploded into a fireball that swept through a drilling rig, killing five in an accident deemed a needless catastrophe by federal investigators and casting a short-lived spotlight on a lack of regulation and oversight across the oil and gas industry.The accident involving a Houston drilling company was the industry’s deadliest since the Deepwater Horizon tragedy 10 years ago, but the response to the Oklahoma explosion has been far less urgent. While the Gulf of Mexico explosion, which killed 11, spurred a drilling moratorium and a wave of new regulations, the Oklahoma disaster entered the national headlines for a brief spell and was quickly forgotten — even after the U.S. Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board found widespread failures and a woeful lack lack of safety standards and rules in the onshore drilling sector.What has happened since then? Not much. “There’s not really a whole lot of rules and regulations for safety on the state and federal levels, and that’s what we’re trying to correct.” The safety board’s report was scathing. It found that the companies planned poorly and cut corners, resulting in myriad contributing factors to the five deaths, including a failed blowout preventer, a muted alarm system, lapses in well monitoring, inadequate employee training, and not enough emergency exits in the driller’s cabin, called the doghouse, where the workers were trapped.The Chemical Safety Board also found that state and federal safety laws governing drilling are inadequate, as are the standards adopted by the American Petroleum Institute, the industry’s trade group. Federal and state regulators and API are beginning to consider the safety board’s recommendations, which range from better well control rules to tougher equipment standards to improved employee training, but bureaucracy moves slowly, said Grim. More substantial changes could still be a couple years away or so.  “It’s really hard to say how it will turn out until we see all the responses and the end results.”

 The Fracking Industry's Methane Problem Is a Climate Problem - While carbon dioxide — deservedly — gets a bad rap when it comes to climate change, about 40 percent of global warming actually can be attributed to the powerful greenhouse gas methane, according to the 2013 IPCC report. This makes addressing methane emissions critical to stopping additional warming, especially in the near future. Methane is shorter-lived in the atmosphere but 85 times more potent than carbon dioxide over a 20 year period.  Atmospheric levels of methane stopped increasing around the year 2000 and at the time were expected to decrease in the future. However, they began increasing again in the last 10 years, spurring researchers to explore why. Robert Howarth, a biogeochemist at Cornell University, recently presented his latest research linking the increase in methane to fossil fuel production, with fracking for natural gas, which is mostly methane, likely a major source.   Howarth argued that 3.4 percent of all natural gas produced from shale in the U.S. is leaked throughout the production cycle.  Howarth’s research links the increase in methane to the U.S. production of shale gas via fracking. The beginning of the U.S.fracking boom coincides with the beginning of the rise in methane in the past decade, and a 2018 NASA study linked the industry to this methane spike. One thing that is becoming increasingly clear about the U.S. fracked oil and gas industry is that it leaks methane — a lot of methane. About 60 percent more methane than previous Environmental Protection Agency estimates, which relied heavily on industry self-reporting, according to a 2018 study published in the journal Science. While the oil and gas industry makes claims about wanting to reduce methane leaks, it has been aided by two simple facts that help hide the scale of the problem: Methane is odorless and invisible to the naked eye. Difficult to detect, methane leaks in the oil and gas production system weren’t obvious until people like Sharon Wilson at Earthworks began bringing specialized infrared cameras to production facilities and helped make those leaks visible.  But it isn't just unintentional leaks. Much of the methane released is intentionally “vented” to the atmosphere in areas without the processing plants, pipelines, and other expensive infrastructure to make use of it. 

IEA warns oil companies doing nothing on emissions is not an option - - In a report with the World Economic Forum presented in Davos, the IEA said oil and gas companies face a critical challenge as the world increasingly adopts clean energy transitions to curb global warming. Around 15% of global energy-related emissions come from the process of getting oil and gas out of the ground and to consumers, the IEA said. Energy-related green house gas emissions rose to a record high in 2018. The Paris-based agency, which advises industrialized nations on energy issues, said oil and gas companies are facing increasing demands to explain how they intend to reduce emissions in line with the 2015 Paris climate agreement. “Every part of the industry needs to consider how to respond. Doing nothing is simply not an option,” IEA’s Executive Director Fatih Birol, said in a statement. The companies are under pressure to cut emissions from their operations and from their products as used by customers, as well as to increase investments in cleaner energies. Targets by oil firms to cut their emissions and switch to cleaner energies vary widely. “The first immediate task for all parts of the industry is reducing the carbon footprint of their own operations,” Birol said, adding that a large part of the emissions from the sector can be brought down relatively quickly and easily, such as reducing methane leaks. The IEA said another key move by the sector would be to boost investments in the cleaner fuels – such as hydrogen, biomethane and advanced biofuels. “Within 10 years, these low-carbon fuels would need to account for around 15% of overall investment in fuel supply if the world is to get on course to tackle climate change,” it said. So far, average investment by oil and gas companies in non-core areas such as renewables, is still limited to around 1% of total capital spending, mostly on solar and wind projects.

Big Oil wants to dump more wastewater into rivers. What could go wrong?  --The industry generates mind-boggling quantities of this waste, which is called “produced water” in industry parlance. Oklahoma, Texas, and New Mexico producers alone generated about 270 billion gallons of it in 2017. That’s enough water to fill the New York Giants stadium more than 550 times over. As oil and gas producers face increasing regulation of underground wastewater disposal — in part to limit earthquakes that result from the pressure injection puts on rocks — they’re looking for new ways to get rid of the fluid left behind after fracking and drilling. That pinch is being felt particularly acutely in Oklahoma, Texas, and New Mexico, which have experienced a fracking boom in the last few years and have limited ways to dispose of the substance.Much to the alarm of environmentalists and public health experts, those three states are now exploring expanding avenues for produced water disposal — including discarding the wastewater in streams and rivers.. East of the 98th meridian — an imaginary line that runs down the middle of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas — oil and gas operators are allowed to release treated wastewater into rivers, but only if it’s first routed through treatment facilities capable of removing the chemicals contained in the waste. West of the meridian, which includes half of Texas and Oklahoma as well as all of New Mexico, oil and gas companies can discard produced water into rivers without that hurdle, so long as they secure government permits.. Producers say they are time-consuming and cumbersome to obtain. As a result, last year Texas and Oklahoma took steps to take over permitting from the EPA. New Mexico is considering following suit. The EPA has also been considering easing regulations — including the 98th meridian rule — which could further expand the industry’s wastewater disposal options. The agency is set to publish a final report with its findings in the next few months.

How One Utah Community Fought the Fracking Industry — and Won - A sign at the north end of Kanab, Utah, proclaims the town of 4,300 to be "The Greatest Earth on Show." It's a rare case of truth in advertising. Kanab sits just seven miles north of the Arizona state line, at the crossroads of some of the Southwest's most beautiful places. In every direction a geologic wonderland awaits. To the north is Zion National Park with its breathtaking valley of 2,000-foot-tall rust and white sandstone cliffs. The sweeping expanse of Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monument stretches to the east of town, and just to the south you'll find the Grand Canyon's North Rim.  There, a company called Southern Red Sands LLC had announced plans to build a facility to mine and process massive amounts of sand for use by oil and gas companies conducting hydraulic fracturing. The sand is a lesser-known but substantial aspect of the fracking process. Round grains of silica sand serve as a "proppant" to keep underground fissures in the shale open as oil and gas are pumped out. Fracking a single well can require thousands of tons of sand. "I really wanted to keep an open mind, but the more I learned about the project, the more concerned I got," Hand told The Revelator when I visited Kanab in September. She had reason to be worried. The first decade of the fracking boom relied heavily on so-called "frac sand" sourced mostly from Midwest states like Minnesota and Wisconsin, where mining reduced verdant green hills to piles of dust. But mining in the Midwest has its limits. Sand is expensive to ship across the country, so as fracking has taken off in Utah, Texas and New Mexico, companies have looked to find more local sources to trim costs. Southern Red Sands, a two-person start-up backed by Utah real-estate developer Kem Gardner, hoped to establish the region's next frac sand mine in a scenic area of state-owned lands outside Kanab called Red Knoll. Despite public pushback and some legal challenges, though, the frac sand mine seemed to be cruising toward approval as recently as October. It still needed an environmental impact assessment from the Bureau of Land Management, and the two water transfers needed approval from the state engineer. The project definitely wasn't a done deal, but in industry-friendly Utah, it had a good shot. So it may have come as a surprise to a number of residents when Southern Red Sands announced at the beginning of January that it was abandoning the proposed project.  What happened? And are there any lessons that other communities fighting extraction threats can learn? "Speak out, pull together like-minded neighbors, organize and don't give up," Hand told me after hearing the news. "But also, try to be nice."

Iowa wants expert review of Dakota Access Pipeline expansion (AP) — Iowa regulators want owners of the Dakota Access Pipeline to provide expert analysis to back up the company’s claim that doubling the line’s capacity won’t increase the likelihood of a spill, a requirement their counterparts in North Dakota haven’t imposed. Texas-based Energy Transfer wants to double the capacity of the pipeline to as much as 1.1 million barrels daily to meet growing demand for oil shipments from North Dakota, and is seeking permission for additional pump stations in the Dakotas, Iowa and Illinois to do it. Commissioners in a South Dakota county last year approved a conditional use permit for a pumping station needed for the expansion. Permits in the other states are pending. The Iowa Utilities Board last week ordered the company to “provide expert explanation of whether the increased flow will increase the amount of oil that will be released if a spill occurs.” The nonpartisan panel, whose three members all were appointed by a Republican governor, also wants information on pipeline pressure levels currently and if the expansion occurs. The company also must provide “expert explanation” on the effect any additives to the oil would have on the longevity of the pipeline. The $3.8 billion pipeline has been moving oil from the Dakotas through Iowa to Illinois for more than two years. It was subject to prolonged protests and hundreds of arrests during its construction in North Dakota in late 2016 and early 2017 because it crosses beneath the Missouri River, just north of the Standing Rock Sioux Reservation. The tribe draws its water from the river and fears pollution. Energy Transfer insists the pipeline and its expansion are safe. Tribal members are asking the North Dakota Public Service Commission to deny the expansion of the pipeline, saying it would “increase both the likelihood and severity of spill incidents.” The company said in court filings that its $40 million pump station built on a 23-acre site would produce only “minimal adverse effects on the environment and the citizens of North Dakota.” The North Dakota PSC in November held a hearing on the proposed expansion that was overseen by an administrative law judge. The 17-hour-long hearing was held in Linton, a town of 1,000 along the pipeline’s path and near where a pump station would be placed to increase the line’s capacity from 600,000 barrels per day to as much as 1.1 million barrels. A barrel is 42 gallons.

 Dakota Access seeks to push more oil through pipeline -Iowa regulators want owners of the Dakota Access Pipeline to provide expert analysis to back up the company’s claim that doubling the line’s capacity won’t increase the likelihood of a spill, a requirement their counterparts in North Dakota haven’t imposed.Texas-based Energy Transfer wants to double the capacity of the pipeline to as much as 1.1 million barrels daily to meet growing demand for oil shipments from North Dakota and is seeking permission for additional pump stations in the Dakotas, Iowa and Illinois to do it. Commissioners in a South Dakota county last year approved a conditional use permit for a pumping station needed for the expansion. Permits in the other states are pending.The Iowa Utilities Board last week ordered the company to “provide expert explanation of whether the increased flow will increase the amount of oil that will be released if a spill occurs.”The nonpartisan panel, whose three members all were appointed by a Republican governor, also wants information on pipeline pressure levels currently and if the expansion occurs. The company also must provide “expert explanation” on the effect any additives to the oil would have on the longevity of the pipeline.The $3.8 billion pipeline has been moving oil from the Dakotas through Iowa to Illinois for more than two years. It was subject to prolonged protests and hundreds of arrests during its construction in North Dakota in late 2016 and early 2017 because it crosses beneath the Missouri River, just north of the Standing Rock Sioux Reservation. The tribe draws its water from the river and fears pollution. Energy Transfer insists the pipeline and its expansion are safe. Tribal members are asking the North Dakota Public Service Commission to deny the expansion of the pipeline, saying it would “increase both the likelihood and severity of spill incidents.” The company said in court filings that its $40 million pump station built on a 23-acre site would produce only “minimal adverse effects on the environment and the citizens of North Dakota.” The North Dakota PSC in November held a hearing on the proposed expansion that was overseen by an administrative law judge. The 17-hour-long hearing was held in Linton, a town of 1,000 along the pipeline’s path and near where a pump station would be placed to increase the line’s capacity from 600,000 barrels per day to as much as 1.1 million barrels.

North Dakota signals no new conditions on pipeline expansion (AP) — North Dakota regulators signaled Thursday that the state would not impose conditions beyond those required by the federal government on a proposal to double the capacity of the Dakota Access Pipeline. Zachary Pelham, an attorney for the three-member, all-Republican North Dakota Public Service Commission told the panel that requiring additional measures could be considered “outside our lane” and “potentially problematic,” drawing a legal challenge from Texas-based Energy Transfer, the pipeline’s owner. The company wants to double the capacity of the pipeline to as much as 1.1 million barrels daily to meet growing demand for oil from North Dakota. It’s seeking permission for additional pump stations in the Dakotas, Iowa and Illinois. Commissioners in a South Dakota county last year approved a conditional use permit for a pumping station. Permits in the other states are pending. Iowa regulators last week said the company must provide expert analysis to back up its claim that doubling the line’s capacity won’t increase the likelihood of a spill. On Tuesday, opponents of the expansion said the Illinois Commerce Commission voted to require the company to provide justification that the additional capacity is needed, including identifying shippers and contracts. The commission did not return telephone calls Thursday to confirm the action. The $3.8 billion pipeline was subject to prolonged protests and hundreds of arrests during its construction in North Dakota in late 2016 and early 2017 because it crosses beneath the Missouri River, just north of the Standing Rock Sioux Reservation. The tribe draws its water from the river and fears pollution. Tribal members are asking North Dakota regulators to deny the expansion, saying it would “increase both the likelihood and severity of spill incidents.” The tribe wants North Dakota regulators to seek a similar analysis to that sought by regulators in Iowa and Illinois.

For North Dakota oil production, it's 'steady as she goes' - North Dakota’s oil production in November was down a tad from a record October, though natural gas output continued to climb. North Dakota, the nation’s second-largest oil-producing state after Texas, pumped out 1.52 million barrels per day in November, down 0.2% from the previous month. “It was pretty much ‘steady as she goes,’ ” Lynn Helms, director of the North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources, said in a webcast with reporters. With winter setting in, Helms said he doesn’t see significant oil and gas production changes ahead. “I’m really expecting these numbers to stay flat the next two or three months.” North Dakota produced 3.13 million MCF per day of natural gas in November, up 2% from a record October. (An MCF is 1,000 cubic feet of natural gas.) Also, North Dakota’s natural gas “capture” rate improved a bit in November, though it’s still below the state’s goals. Oil and gas operators captured 83% of gas production, up from 82% in October. The remainder was burned off in an economically wasteful and carbon-emitting practice called flaring. North Dakota operators are supposed to be capturing 88% of their gas production and flaring only 12%. Helms said gas capture will improve with the December completion of a new gas pipeline and should continue getting better as new gas processing capacity comes online this year. On the negative side, gas and petroleum production this spring could be hurt by extended road restrictions in North Dakota’s oil patch. A wet fall combined with an early cold snap has produced a “very deep frost,” Helms said. “Roads will be soft going into spring.” Heavy-equipment restrictions on county and township roads that normally end around Mother’s Day may not expire until Father’s Day, Helms said.

Keystone XL Inches Forward - TC Energy Corp. plans to begin pre-construction work on the Keystone XL oil pipeline next month, moving the long-delayed project forward even as opponents continue to fight it in court. Heavy construction equipment will be moved to worker campsites and pipeline storage sites in Montana, South Dakota and Nebraska in February, the Calgary-based company said in a filing with the U.S. District Court in Montana on Tuesday. TC then plans to start building the part of the conduit that crosses the U.S.-Canada border in April. The filing shows that TC Energy is pushing the $8 billion project forward despite continued opposition from environmental activists and some landowners. The pipeline is still tied up in a legal battle in Montana, and the company noted that it needs additional authorizations and permits to build the border-crossing segment. The 1,200-mile (1,900-kilometer) pipeline would help carry 830,000 more barrels of crude a day from Alberta’s oil sands to U.S. Gulf Coast refineries, easing a pipeline shortage that has hurt Canada’s oil industry. Environmentalists have opposed the project, arguing that it would contribute to catastrophic climate change by allowing more oil production.

South Dakota board approves Keystone XL water permits — The South Dakota Water Management Board on Tuesday approved five water permit applications for Keystone XL pipeline construction. The hearing was so contentious that it stretched into a dozen days over the course of four months as American Indian tribes and environmental groups argued against their approval. After holding a brief period for public comment in Fort Pierre Tuesday, the board met in a closed executive session before voting to approve the permits, with added requirements for real-time monitoring and weekly check-ins with the state. Opponents can appeal the board’s decision. They didn’t immediately respond to messages from The Associated Press seeking comment. TC Energy, the Canadian company building the pipeline, applied for permits to tap the Cheyenne, White and Bad rivers in South Dakota during construction. The water will be used for drilling to install pipe, build pump stations and control dust during construction. Two ranchers also applied for water permits to supply backup water to worker camps. The board allowed three minutes for each person who wanted to comment before the executive session. Two Native American youths — Tatanka Itancan, age 17, and his sister Zora Lone Eagle, age 13 — with painted handprints on their faces used their three minutes to silently stare at the board in protest. They said they had been refused permission to cross-examine experts during the hearing because they are minors and not represented by an attorney. Itancan said they live within a couple miles of where the pipeline would cross the Cheyenne River.

Trump administration approves Keystone pipeline on US land (AP) — The Trump administration on Wednesday approved a right-of-way allowing the Keystone XL oil sands pipeline to be built across U.S. land, pushing the controversial $8 billion project closer to construction though court challenges still loom. The approval signed by Interior Secretary David Bernhardt and obtained by The Associated Press covers 46 miles (74 kilometers) of the pipeline’s route across land in Montana that’s controlled by the Bureau of Land Management and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, said Casey Hammond, assistant secretary of the Interior Department. Those segments of federal land are a small fraction of the pipeline’s 1,200-mile (1,930-kilometer) route, but the right-of-way was crucial for a project that’s obtained all the needed permits at the state and local levels. The pipeline would transport up to 830,000 barrels (35 million gallons) of crude oil daily from western Canada to terminals on the U.S. Gulf Coast. Project sponsor TC Energy said in a court filing that it wants to begin construction on the U.S.-Canada border crossing in Montana in April. Opponents promised to challenge those plans in court. First proposed in 2008, the pipeline has become emblematic of the tensions between economic development and curbing the fossil fuel emissions that are causing climate change. The Obama administration rejected it, but President Donald Trump revived it and has been a strong supporter. The stretch approved Wednesday includes all federal land crossed by the line, Hammond said. Much of the rest of the route is across private land, for which TC Energy has been acquiring permissions to build on. Environmentalists and Native American tribes along the pipeline route say burning the tar sands oil will make climate change worse, and that the pipeline could break and spill oil into waterways like Montana’s Missouri River. They have filed numerous lawsuits.

Natural Gas Industry’s $1 Million PR Campaign Sets up Fight Over Northwest’s Energy Future - Washington and Oregon natural-gas companies, rattled by local proposals that could shift more buildings to electricity, will spend $1 million on a public-relations campaign to promote their fuel as part of the region’s clean-energy future. The gas companies are forming a coalition of unions, businesses and consumer groups to tout the benefits of natural gas and to help “prevent or defeat” initiatives that inhibit its use, according to internal industry documents obtained by The Seattle Times. They’re calling the coalition “Partners for Energy Progress,” and a public launch is scheduled next year. The planning documents provide a window into the industry’s broader effort to ensure that natural gas continues to be piped into American homes and other buildings, even as municipal and state governments grapple with how to combat climate change. “This will play out on a national scale much sooner than a lot of us have expected,” said Seattle City Councilmember Mike O’Brien, who in September proposed banning gas from new construction.  In Seattle, Bellingham and other Northwest cities, gas companies and their allies already have begun fighting policy proposals, like O’Brien’s, that would place new restrictions on natural gas use in buildings as a way to reduce climate emissions. Puget Sound Energy (PSE) joined other opponents to halt the Seattle proposal, and Cascade Natural Gas has attacked recommendations by a Bellingham task force that include phasing gas out of all buildings. Dan Kirschner, executive director of the Northwest Gas Association, confirmed the $1 million push, which he said would be launched with funding from association members, including Bellevue-based PSE.  Natural gas, when combusted, releases roughly 50% fewer carbon emissions than coal. But that doesn’t tell the whole story. Natural gas vents and leaks release unburnt methane, a potent greenhouse gas, into the atmosphere, and anxieties about that phenomenon are growing. Unburnt methane can warm the planet 84 times more in the first 20 years than the same amount of carbon dioxide.

California is going to court to stop Trump fracking plans - — California took legal action Friday to block the Trump administration’s plans to open federal lands in California to oil and gas drilling, including the controversial practice of hydraulic fracturing. The federal lawsuit announced by state Atty. Gen. Xavier Becerra comes after President Trump’s administration announced details of its plan to open more than a million acres of public and private land in California to fracking, ending a five-year moratorium on leasing federal land in California to oil and gas developers. “We are suing the Trump administration, once again, for acting as if they are above the law,” Becerra said during a news conference at his Sacramento office Friday morning. “Much of the federal oil and gas activity in the state happens near some of our most vulnerable communities, communities [that] are already disproportionately exposed to pollution and its health effects. Adding more fracking to the equation would only make things worse.” The lawsuit alleges that the federal Bureau of Land Management’s final environmental impact statement, approved in December, violates the National Environmental Policy Act and the Administrative Procedure Act because it fails to consider the danger posed to people who might live near the oil and gas wells and underestimated the number of fracking wells that could become active on the federal land. “They shortchanged the people, they shortchanged the law, they shortchanged the science, when it came to their analysis,” Becerra said. Along with the attorney general, the plaintiffs in the lawsuit against the Trump administration include Gov. Gavin Newsom, the California Air Resources Board, the California Department of Fish and Wildlife and the California Department of Water Resources. Environmental groups filed a similar lawsuit in a Los Angeles federal court earlier this week, citing the threat to public health and potential damage to recreational areas caused by fracking.  Catherine Reheis-Boyd, president of the Western States Petroleum Assn., said the BLM’s review process followed federal law and the scientific studies involved took place under the Obama and Trump administrations.  Reheis-Boyd said. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, whose Bakersfield district is in the heart of California oil country, called the lawsuit a “stunt” that will adversely affect people with well-paying oilfield jobs in the Central Valley and across the state..

Cleanup of orphaned oil wells could cost California $500 million - California is staring at a massive bill to clean up the deserted oil and gas wells left behind by businesses that have gone defunct as the industry has diminished, according to a new report released Thursday by a state research agency.The California Council on Science and Technology estimated that the state already is liable for more than $500 million in cleanup costs for more than 5,500 orphaned wells up and down the state.The potential liability far outpaces the funds the state has on hand to combat the issue. The companies holding wells identified as orphaned in the 67-page report made just $26 million available to the state for their cleanup.The state’s responsibility could quickly grow, the report says: Another 69,000 wells have little to no production and little hope of restarting, or are held by financially weak businesses. Judson Boomhower, an energy expert and assistant professor of economics at UC San Diego who was lead author of the report, said in a statement that the state has recently taken steps to require a greater financial commitment from oil and gas companies to avoid being saddled with the responsibility of cleanup in the future. “However, our initial analysis implies that the potential cost to the state still substantially exceeds the value of these assurances,” Boomhower said. The report says orphaned wells are concentrated in Los Angeles and Long Beach, where costs associated with cleanup are “systematically high.” Two orphaned wells that started emitting odors in Echo Park in 2016 cost the state more than $1 million to seal.  Mothballed wells off California’s coast, such as Platform Holly, have attracted the attention of state regulators for their potential to spill into the ocean and the large costs associated with their decommissioning. But, the report points out, issues with sealing wells are not limited to offshore wells, which represent just 2% of the state total. “The vast majority of orphan wells in the state are located onshore,” the report states. “These wells represent potentially large liabilities for the state.”

Trans Mountain Oil Pipeline Wins Legal Battle- Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s bid to complete the Trans Mountain oil pipeline won a major victory Thursday as the nation’s top court rejected an appeal brought by British Columbia aimed at challenging the controversial project. The Supreme Court of Canada has dismissed the case, the court said in a statement. The decision was unanimous. B.C. Premier John Horgan’s government had sought to amend its Environmental Management Act so that the Pacific Coast province could control the transit of heavy oils like diluted bitumen from neighboring Alberta. In May, B.C.’s top appeals court ruled the province doesn’t have the jurisdiction to do that, saying the proposed amendments appear to “cross the line” between general environmental laws and the regulation of federal undertakings. The province had then taken it to the Supreme Court. The Trans Mountain expansion project seeks to almost triple the capacity of an existing pipeline that runs from oil-rich Alberta to a terminal in Vancouver’s port and would mean a seven-fold increase in tanker traffic to roughly 34 Aframax-sized ships a month. The federal government and the oil industry see the expansion as critical to reducing Canada’s dependence on the U.S., which takes almost all the nation’s oil exports. But the project faces staunch opposition in B.C., the birthplace of Greenpeace. Horgan’s government was elected in 2017 pledging to use “every tool” to try to block the project. The proposed legislation doesn’t specifically name Trans Mountain, but would restrict the increase of diluted bitumen shipments through the province until the behavior of spilled bitumen can be better understood. Kinder Morgan Inc., Trans Mountain’s original backer, abandoned the project in 2018 due to protests and legal challenges in B.C. Trudeau’s government stepped in to buy it for about C$4.2 billion ($3.2 billion). The expansion, which would boost daily shipping capacity by 590,000 barrels to a total of 890,000 barrels, would be a boon for Canadian oil drillers that have suffered from a lack of pipeline space, a bottleneck that has weighed on local crude prices. The expansion would be especially helpful to companies focused on production -- like Cenovus Energy Inc., MEG Energy Corp., and Athabasca Oil Corp. -- and have little to no refining capacity to cushion the blow from lower prices.

Heavy Crude Freezing Solid in Western Canada -- An arctic blast sweeping across Western Canada is weighing on the price of heavy crude. Temperatures of -30 degrees Celsius (-22 Fahrenheit) and lower have descended on Alberta and Saskatchewan -- cold enough to render the region’s viscous oil rock solid. To transport it, producers must blend in more of a lighter crude called condensate, thereby reducing the volume that can be shipped by pipeline and increasing transportation costs, according to Kevin Birn, IHS Markit’s director of North American crude oil markets. At the same time, trains that are shipping crude out of the pipeline-bottlenecked region must move slower in the chillier weather. Local demand for the oil is also threatened. On Tuesday, operations at Imperial Oil Ltd.’s refinery near Edmonton were disrupted due to the cold weather, the company said. Natural gas supplies to parts of the oil sands-producing region, where the fuel is used to make steam for loosening bitumen so it can be extracted, were also disrupted on the NOVA Gas Transmission system as “extreme cold weather that has resulted in reduced receipts, high Intra demand and unplanned outages,” according to a notice from TC Energy Corp. “The cold weather across the province is resulting in the inability for some customers to produce gas onto the NGTL system, while the system is experiencing peak demand,” TC Energy said in an email. “As a result, some central and northeast Alberta industrial customers are affected by lower-than-usual gas pressures.” Shortfalls of gas supplies have also affected some power generators in the province, said Tara de Weerd, spokeswoman for Alberta Electric System Operator, which manages and operates the Alberta power grid. Oil sands benchmark Western Canadian Select’s discount to West Texas Intermediate futures was at $24.50 a barrel on Wednesday, the widest in more than a year. Edmonton Mixed Sweet crude’s discount is also at the weakest in more than a year as is light synthetic crude that’s produced from oil sands bitumen processed in an upgrader.

The investigation into the Sportsplex Pond oil spill is now closed - The investigation into the hydrocarbon spill at the Crosslink County Sportsplex Pond has wrapped up, with no culprit found.On May 23, 2019, members of the public reported to the County of Grande Prairie that an oily residue with a rainbow sheen was on the surface of the Sportsplex Pond. An investigation into the incident found the residue was industrial oil, that is believed to had been intentionally released in a storm water drain. The oil had then made its way into the pond, which acts as a storm water overflow, as well as a wildlife habitat and a stocked fishing pond for public use.  An investigation by the County of Grande Prairie and Alberta Environment and Parks (AEP) found the volume of pollutants in the pond was estimated at five cubic metres of hydrocarbon, and contamination and remediation efforts were put into place. After nearly two months of remediation and clean-up efforts, the pond and trails were re-opened.

U.S. imposes sanctions on petrochemical companies (Reuters) - The United States on Thursday said it blacklisted two companies based in Hong Kong, one in Shanghai and one in Dubai for helping Iran's state-owned National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) export millions of dollars of goods in violation of U.S. sanctions. The U.S. Treasury Department said it imposed sanctions on the Hong Kong-based Triliance Petrochemical Co. Ltd and Sage Energy HK Limited, China-based Peakview Industry Co Ltd and United Arab Emirates-based Beneathco DMCC. The sanctions would freeze all assets held by the companies that fall under U.S. jurisdiction, generally bar U.S. companies and individuals from dealing with them, and potentially subject non-U.S. financial institutions that knowingly facilitate "significant transactions" for them to U.S. sanctions. In addition, the U.S. government-imposed sanctions on two other companies, Jiaxiang Industry Hong Kong Limited and Shandong Oiwangwa Petrochemical Co Ltd, and two individuals, Ali Bayandrian, who is linked to Triliance Petroleum, and Zhiqing Wang, a Chinese national linked to Shandong Oiwangwa. The announcements are the latest step in the U.S. "maximum pressure" campaign designed to squeeze the Iranian economy to try to force Iran to accept greater constraints on its nuclear program, regional activities and pursuit of ballistic missiles.

Trump administration grants Chevron license to keep drilling in Venezuela - The Department of Treasury is allowing Chevron, along with four other U.S. service suppliers, to continue operating in Venezuela despite U.S. sanctions. The Associated Press reported Saturday that the American companies were granted special licenses that extend the time they’ll be allowed to operate in Venezuela until April 22. Last year, the U.S. issued sanctions on Venezuela’s oil industry to pressure President Nicolás Maduro to abandon socialist policies, which they credit as the source of the country’s widespread economic decline. Amid the country's economic crisis, a disputed election has split country's diplomatic ties between Maduro and opposition leader Juan Guaidó, who is backed by the U.S. Maduro has accused the Trump administration of orchestrating a coup to take over Venezuelan oil reserves. Chevron, which has four joint ventures with Venezuela’s state-run oil company, produces about a fourth of the country’s oil production, with critics questioning whether the United States' efforts to oust Maduro through sanctions will prevail over American business interests. The Treasury Department did not immediately respond to an inquiry from The Hill.

Snake Oil Goes Mainstream-- An obscure part of the global marine-fuel market, once viewed as having little value for most shippers, is about to have its day. Producers of additives -- anything that makes fuels more viscous, lubricating or stable -- are cashing in as new shipping regulations require vessel owners to switch to cleaner fuels. At least some new low-sulfur fuels contain ingredients that can separate over time, potentially making them liable to clog equipment. “It would be very irresponsible not to use an additive,” said Melbourne Pinks, senior vice president at U.S. chemical shipping company Chembulk Tankers LLC. “They are now essential.” That wasn’t a common view before the new International Maritime Organization rules -- known as IMO 2020 -- came into effect this month, requiring the vast majority of shipowners to ditch high-sulfur fuels. Some of the new, cleaner versions may contain asphaltenes, which can form a sludge, especially when different fuels are mixed together. That’s prompted shippers to turn to the additives they once passed over as unnecessary, including compounds to improve a fuel’s lubricity and others to keep it stable and prevent it from breaking down.

Angola's Oil Drilling Ramps Up -- Angola’s ailing oil industry got a shot in the arm this week, with Eni SpA and Total SA both showing their commitment to the OPEC producer. Eni started production at the Agogo-1 deepwater field and won exploration rights to Block 28 in the Namibe Basin, while Total, active in Angola for more than 60 years, was awarded Block 29. New discoveries are vital if the southwest African country is going to revive faltering output, according to consultants Rystad Energy AS. “Adding significant resource through new discovery seems to be the only way out,” Rystad said in a report. Without fresh finds, volumes could drop below 1 million barrels a day by 2025, it said. Oil production in Angola has slumped by a third in the past decade to less than 1.4 million barrels a day, reflecting years of underinvestment in new projects. The government, which relies on oil exports for most of its revenue, has introduced reforms such as tax relief and a standalone regulator as part of efforts to lure investment and reverse the decline. The number of rigs in Angolan waters has increased in recent months, with Total positioning itself to be the country’s top foreign operator. The French major plans to drill the world’s deepest offshore well in a campaign that begins in the next few weeks. Italy’s Eni and its partners have started pumping 10,000 barrels a day at Agogo-1, and expect to double that volume in the coming months, Angola’s oil-industry regulator said Thursday. Production from Angolan projects that started in the last five years will peak in 2022 at about 549,000 barrels a day, according to Rystad.

Is This The Start Of A New Offshore Oil & Gas Boom? In retrospect, 2019 was another strong year for offshore exploration and production companies. Free cash flow remained strong and telltale signs have emerged that we are entering a new offshore investment cycle. This trend was perhaps illustrated most profoundly by the rising swell of offshore project approval activity by operators in 2019. Globally, the amount of oil and gas resources approved for development last year surpassed 20 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe), the highest level seen since 2011.  A quick look at free cash flow (FCF) levels in recent years confirms that 2019 was a strong year for the offshore sector. Figure 1 shows the total offshore FCF from all public E&P companies globally. This shows that 2019 was the third best year on record, with FCF reaching nearly $90 billion. This represented a slight reduction compared to 2018, but compares very favorably with the previous investment cycle from 2010 to 2014. This shows that the cash flow situation for offshore players is very robust, underlining the point that E&Ps have enough cash in hand to invest in new projects after several years of restrained capital expenditure.   Figure 2 provides an overview of total approved offshore resources each year over the past decade, split by liquids and gas. Last year saw the approval of 12.3 billion barrels of liquids projects, along with 8.3 billion boe of new gas projects, thus bringing total approved resources to 20.6 billion boe. Given that the total amount of offshore production in 2019 was 10.1 billion barrels of liquids and 7.0 billion boe of gas, this implies a replacement ratio of 1.2 for both oil and gas.  .  Figure 3 shows approved offshore greenfield investments (designated for the development of new projects) by year of sanctioning. Once again, a strong increase in activity is seen in 2019. Total greenfield investments approved last year increased by 50% versus 2018. This significant rise in approved resources and investments was driven by several very large developments that were approved last year, such as the massive Marjan and Berri expansion projects in Saudi Arabia.  Figure 4 shows the 15 largest offshore projects approved last year, measured by total greenfield capex. The expansion phase of Saudi Aramco’s Marjan field in Saudi Arabia was by far the largest project approved last year, with close to $12 billion in investments. The project aims to add 24 new offshore platforms to handle initial oil and gas processing and water injection. These platforms will tie into the onshore expansion of the Tanajib oil facilities, as well as other newly built onshore gas facilities. The second largest project on the list is the first phase of Total’s Area 1 development in Mozambique. This gas project will be developed as a subsea tieback to an onshore LNG plant.

My Neighbourhood Is On Fire!!! - Pipeline Explodes In Nigeria -- According to Nigerian newspaper Vanguard News, a massive fire is raging at one of Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation's (NNPSC) pipelines in Abule Egba, a neighborhood in Lagos, Nigeria, although the state-owned oil corporation, NNPSC, has yet to report on the incident or if there was a disruption to its crude transportation. Besides Vanguard News, alleged video of the devastation surfaced on social media.One Twitter handle said: "Fire service, please tell us what to do. Tell us what you've done. People are disturbed!!! My neighbourhood is on fire!!! Nigeria help !!!! Ekoro, Abule Egba, Pipeline. SOS SOS SOS !!!”  Fire service, please tell us what to do. Tell us what you've done. People are disturbed!!! My neighbourhood is on fire!!!  Nigeria help !!!! Ekoro, Abule Egba, Pipeline.SOS SOS SOS !!!@segalink @ChifeDr @BOGbadamosi @DrJoeAbah @MBuhari @PoliceNG @NigeriainfoFM pic.twitter.com/Evl5UhuFeR— Emeka Akpa (@emekaakpa_) January 19, 2020Another user captured a massive fireball in the sky. NNPC pipelines passing through Awori, Lagos Nigeria catches fireWatch vedio here https://t.co/yvceLZFQZH pic.twitter.com/If7MuOEq7O — Hydar Aleey (@iAleey) January 19, 2020Handle @IAMGFLOW2 tweets a picture of charred cars and possible structure fires, saying, "Several properties were said to have been consumed."There is a raging fire at one of the Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation, NNPC, pipelines at Ekoro, Abule -Egba area of Lagos State.Several properties were said to have been consumed. #AbuleEgbaonFire#whatsappdown pic.twitter.com/87eE9Rxn7A — Gflow_designer (@IAMGFLOW2) January 19, 2020 Besides the various media reports, there is no incident report yet on any NNPSC's pipelines:

Two captains on trial for polluting UAE beaches with oil spill - Two captains have appeared at the Fujairah Misdemeanours Court on charges of polluting the beaches of Fujairah and Kalba city. The foreign captains have allegedly caused a massive oil pollution in these beaches that need up to Dh14 million to be cleaned up. Court records show that the two ships, back in October last year, collided in Fujairah waters following which huge amounts of diesel spilled into the sea and extended to the beaches of Fujairah and Kalba, covering a total area of 3km along the coasts. The leak has also led to a foul odour and affected the fishing activities in these places. The two ships have been seized, while the captains were referred to court for legal action. The defence lawyer requested the court to release the ship of her client as the forensic report has already been submitted. "The seizure order has caused a big loss to my client," she told the court, which rejected her request and upheld the custody ruling. The court ordered adjournment of the case to a later timing for more hearing sessions.

OPEC oil production cuts likely to continue for the ‘whole of 2020’: Wood Mackenzie - OPEC is likely to continue with its oil supply cuts for the rest of 2020, a research director said Monday. “One thing which we are seeing in our numbers is that the market is still not ready to absorb the production cuts back, even for (the) whole of this year,” Sushant Gupta, who heads Wood Mackenzie’s refining and oils market team in Asia, told CNBC’s “Capital Connection.” “We expect OPEC to continue cutting production for 2020,” he said. OPEC and its allies agreed in December 2019 to cut supply by an additional 500,000 barrels per day until its next meeting in March 2020, bringing the total reduction to 1.7 million barrels a day. However, the duration of the deal remains uncertain. The energy alliance usually gathers every six months, so the announcement of a meeting in March caused some analysts to believe that tighter policy would only last for the first quarter of 2020. Gupta argued that the additional cuts indicate OPEC is aware of oversupply in the oil market for at least the first half of this year. “They will have to manage that oversupply somehow, by either higher compliance or even deeper cuts for (a) longer time,” he said. He added that Wood Mackenzie expects oil supply to outpace demand for “the whole of 2020.” Part of that supply will come from non-OPEC, non-U.S. producers such as Brazil, Canada and Norway, he said. “It’s more pronounced in the first half 2020 than the second half ... but we expect (OPEC) to rollover production cuts for the whole of 2020,” he said. Oil price forecast Gupta also weighed in on oil prices in a “fundamentally oversupplied” market. “We expect prices to stabilize at around $65 per barrel for the first half of this year and around $64 per barrel for the whole year 2020.” When asked about black swan events — rare and unpredictable occurrences with severe consequences — for the market, he pointed to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing U.S.-China trade war. Still, oil prices will “come back again” to the fundamentals, he said. “Geopolitical events will continue to play a key part in 2020,” he said. “But ... from the demand side of things, the U.S.-China trade dispute and overall health of the global economy will play an equally important part in keeping the prices in balance.”

Higher Non-OPEC Output Will Keep Oil Prices Honest in 2020 - For all intents and purposes, oil trading data recorded over past sessions only offers a glimpse of what has gone by and is perhaps not an absolute harbinger of what might follow. Yet, what it does is offer reasonable conclusions on crude trading patterns in sync with supply and demand permutations. By that logic, 2019 saw one of the most range-bound price variations for global proxy benchmark Brent, as well as the West Texas Intermediate, the preferred North American benchmark (See Figure 1), and that will continue in 2020. While price volatility remained a feature, Brent futures rarely escaped the $60-70 per barrel range and averaged just north of $64 for 2019. WTI mirrored that range, albeit with a top and bottom end discount of ~$5 per barrel, unable to escape the $55-65 bracket and averaged just below ~$58. While my prediction for the WTI average was higher by $2, Brent, more reflective of global permutations, stayed within the 2019 range I’d put forward on Rigzone last year. The market fundamentals taken into account in making that call haven’t materially altered in 2020. In fact, the logic of there being too much oil out there has been lent further credence by 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd) to 2.3 million bpd of possible additional non-OPEC crude coming to the market. Much of this would be in the shape of light sweet crude being exported by U.S. producers. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), American production is expected to rise by 1.06 million bpd in 2020 to a record of 13.30 million bpd. Brazil, Canada, Guyana and Norway will also be among the producing nations adding to the global supply pool. Switching tack to the demand-side of the pricing equation, survey forecasts range from demand growth levels of 800,000 to 1.4 million bpd, keeping total global consumption around 101-102 million bpd. My prediction is for demand growth to be somewhere in the middle of that range, i.e. 1.1 to 1.2 million bpd. That’s because an easing of demand worries has still not materialized. A resolution of the U.S.-China trade standoff has still not been meaningfully found; the U.K. and European Union are in for an intense round of Brexit negotiations going all the way up to December; and demand patterns of the big five crude consumers – i.e. the U.S., China, India, Japan and South Korea – continue to give cause for concern.

Oil rises as Libyan oilfields shut down  -- Oil prices rose to their highest in more than week on Monday after two large crude production bases in Libya began shutting down amid a military blockade, risking reducing crude flows from the OPEC member to a trickle. Brent crude was up 37 cents, or 0.6%, at $65.22 by 0952 GMT, having earlier touched $66 a barrel, the highest since Jan. 9. The West Texas Intermediate contract was 24 cents, or 0.4%, higher at $58.78 a barrel, after rising to $59.73, the highest since Jan. 10. Two major oilfields in southwest Libya began shutting down on Sunday after forces loyal to Khalifa Haftar closed a pipeline, potentially cutting national output to a fraction of its normal level, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) said. The closure, which follows a blockade of major eastern oil ports, risked taking almost all the country’s oil output offline However, the earlier rise in oil prices eased after some analysts and traders said supply disruptions in Libya could be offset by other producers, limiting the impact on global markets. “The oil market remains well supplied with ample stocks and a healthy spare capacity cushion. In other words, the bullish price impact may prove to be fleeting,” said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM. Takashi Tsukioka, president of the Petroleum Association of Japan (PAJ), also told a news conference that oil prices may fluctuate due to the latest incidents, but “we don’t have to worry too much about demand and supply balance as OPEC can cover shortfalls.” If Libyan exports are halted for any sustained period, storage tanks will fill within days and production will slow to 72,000 barrels per day (bpd), an NOC spokesman said. Libya has been producing around 1.2 million bpd recently. “A prolonged disruption from Libya would be enough to swing the global oil market from surplus to deficit in 1Q20,”

Oil markets look to potential disruption with halt in Libyan production - Oil prices could see prices going up in the short term with a disruption in supply after oil production in Libya was down by 800,000 barrels on Friday, analysts said. Oil markets on Friday saw Brent trading on $64.85 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $58.54, both down on the week with continued oversupply concerns and weak economic data coming out from China. Geopolitical tensions, however, may take centre stage again this week after oil exports were blocked from ports in Libya along with oil field closures. International peace talks are set to take place in Berlin, Germany, on Sunday in an attempt to reach a settlement between conflicting Libyan factions. “While the Gulf region has dominated geopolitics to start the year, North Africa will set the tone this week. Reportedly half of Libya’s oil production has been shut in as political rivals seek to exert influence over pending negotiations to end hostilities,” said Edward Bell, commodity analyst at Emirates NBD. “The country continues to endure political unrest that threatens the stability of supplies and exports. Hence, we assign a relatively low probability to Libya maintaining recent high production levels for most of 2020,” he added. “Unlike the circumstances in the Gulf, the tensions in Libya are actually affecting physical markets thus allowing a price rally to have more solid footing,” he said. Market surplus On a more long-term look, Bell said that market oversupply remained a pressing challenge for markets even with geopolitical tensions, with monthly reports last week by Opec and the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasting a surplus of oil.

Oil rises as Libya declares force majeure in oilfields (Reuters) - Oil prices rose to their highest in more than a week on Monday after two large crude production bases in Libya began shutting down amid a military blockade, risking reducing crude flows from the OPEC member to a trickle.Brent crude settled up 35 cents, or 0.5%, at $65.20, having earlier touched $66 a barrel, its highest since Jan. 9.West Texas Intermediate last traded 12 cents, or 0.2% higher, at $58.66 a barrel, after rising to $59.73, the highest since Jan. 10.Two major oilfields in southwest Libya began shutting down on Sunday after forces loyal to Khalifa Haftar closed a pipeline, potentially cutting national output to a fraction of its normal level, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) said.NOC declared force majeure on crude loadings from the Sharara and El Feel oilfields, according to a document seen by Reuters.The closure, which follows a blockade of major eastern oil ports, risked taking almost all the country's oil output offline.However, the earlier rise in oil prices eased after some analysts and traders said supply disruptions in Libya will be short-lived and could be offset by other producers, limiting the impact on global markets."The oil market remains well supplied with ample stocks and a healthy spare capacity cushion. In other words, the bullish price impact may prove to be fleeting," said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM.Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects, added: "We expect the current scale of outages to be fairly short-lived... as there is limited upside for Haftar to slow the country's oil revenues to a trickle.""The current closures are clearly a power play aimed at boosting Haftars leverage amid international efforts to broker peace in the country."Foreign powers agreed at a summit in Berlin on Sunday to shore up a shaky truce in Libya, which has been in turmoil since the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011.If Libyan exports are halted for any sustained period, storage tanks will fill within days and production will slow to 72,000 barrels per day (bpd), an NOC spokesman said. Libya has been producing around 1.2 million bpd recently.

Oil prices ease as supply risk concerns fade -Oil prices eased on Tuesday as investors appeared to shrug off earlier supply concerns following a force majeure declared by Libya on two major oilfields amid a military blockade.Brent crude was trading down 30 cents, or 0.5%, at $64.90 per barrel by 0318 GMT, after rising to their highest in more than a week on Monday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 14 cents, or 0.2%, at $58.40 a barrel."Every time we get a big geopolitical event, the market spikes up but everybody looks at that as a chance of a selling opportunity," said Tony Nunan, oil risk manager at Mitsubishi Corp in Tokyo.Two major oilfields in southwest Libya began shutting down on Sunday after a pipeline was closed off, potentially reducing national output to a fraction of its normal level, the country's National Oil Corp (NOC) said.A document sent to oil traders and seen by Reuters on Monday said the NOC had declared force majeure - a waiver on contractual obligations - on crude loadings from El Sharara and El Feel oilfields in Libya's southwest.If Libyan exports are halted for any sustained period, storage tanks will fill within days and production will slow to 72,000 barrels per day (bpd), an NOC spokesman said. Libya has been producing around 1.2 million bpd recently.Anti-government unrest in Iraq, another major oil producer, also had initially supported oil prices, but officials later said production in southern oilfields has not been affected by the unrest.Any supply disruptions could be offset by increased output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which could limit the impact on global oil markets, the head of Japan's petroleum industry body said."We are caught in this ($65 per barrel) trading range,"

Oil Falls Despite Major Outage In Libya - Oil prices pared gains in early trading on Tuesday, as a new virus in China raised fears of an economic slowdown. Even substantial oil supply disruptions in Libya couldn’t keep prices up.    Libya’s oil operations were disrupted at the El Feel and Sharara fields as well as the Zawiya export terminal. Other ports also declared force majeure, including Brega, Ras Lanuf, Hariga, Zueitina and Sidra. Together, the outages may total as much as 800,000 bpd. Libya’s civil war has raged since last April, but the oil outages open up a dangerous new phase. Oil prices originally moved higher on the news but fears of the coronavirus slowing down economic growth have countered that at least temporarily.  The U.S. government extended a waiver forChevron for another three months, allowing the company to continue to operate in Venezuela despite sweeping American sanctions on the country. Venezuela’s oil production has stabilized at lower levels – at a little over 700,000 bpd – despite the ongoing sanctions.   Nymex natural gas prices have plunged below $2/MMBtu, a level not seen in years. Prices continued to decline in early trading on Tuesday. Shale gas stocks were deep in the red as a result. For instance, Range Resources  was off by more than 7 percent on Tuesday, Antero Resources was down by more than 5 percent. The gas-focused drillers in the Marcellus shale are under particular pressure because they don’t have crude oil to offset the losses. The gas plunge is also squeezing coal-fired power plants.  The oil industry is not investing enough in clean energy, and companies are at risk as the world moves on from fossil fuels, the IEA warned in a new report. But large oil and gas companies could play a constructive role in accelerating the deployment of clean energy, the agency said.  A new IEEFA report finds that the shareholder payouts from the five largest oil majors are unsustainable. The payouts to shareholders exceeded free cash flow by $207 billion over the past decade. The majors took on debt and sold assets to bridge the gap, raising questions about the sustainability of such a strategy.

WTI Extends Losses To 7-Week Lows After Large Crude, Product Builds Oil traded down notably today, plumbing 7-week lows on concerns that the deadly coronavirus that’s spreading from China will crimp energy demand in a market already awash with supplies. The oil-price decline “is a manifestation of worries about global oil demand,”  And tonight's inventory data could well exacerbate that concern.  API

• Crude +1.57mm (-1.0mm exp)
• Cushing -429k
• Gasoline +4.5mm (+3.3mm exp)
• Distillates +3.5mm (+1.6mm exp)

Despite last week's huge product builds, analysts continue to expect more increases in inventories and they did. Crude stocks rose 1.57mm barrels against the 1mm draw expected...  The 3% drop today is somewhat ironic since it perfectly matches Goldman's estimate overnight at the impact the virus would have on price...  Goldman estimate that global oil demand may slip by 260,000 barrels a day this year as a result of the respiratory virus. If the 2003 SARS epidemic is any guide, this new outbreak could shave almost $3 from the price of a barrel of crude, the bank said. “We could see weaker Chinese oil demand over the next several weeks or even longer,” said Leo Mariani, energy analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc.“Going into the Chinese New Year, we tend to see outside travel throughout China and there’s big concerns about a demand shock.” WTI hovered around $56.60 (lows of the day) ahead of the API data and extended losses as the print hit...

Oil falls nearly 3% as over-supply concerns weigh - Oil prices fell more than 2% on Wednesday as a market surplus forecast by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and demand worries outweighed concern over disruptions to Libya's crude output.Brent crude was down $1.39, or 2.2%, at $63.20 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.8%, or $1.64, to settle at $56.74 per barrel.The head of the IEA, Fatih Birol, said he expects the market to be in surplus by 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first half of this year."Oil prices remain heavy on oversupply concerns and after the Saudi Energy Minister Price Abdulaziz did not offer any hints of optimism that the OPEC+ production cuts would be extended beyond March," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA in New York."China's coronavirus will likely see travel restrictions that could end up hurting demand for crude during a peak travel time in China."Markets are also focusing on the emergence from China of a new coronavirus just ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays this weekend and the possible impact a pandemic might have on global economic growth.Should the virus develop dramatically and hit travel and growth, demand for oil could fall by 260,000 bpd, Goldman Sachs said in a note."Demand concerns over a potential epidemic will counter concerns around supply disruptions in Libya, Iran and Iraq, driving spot price volatility in coming weeks," Goldman said, though the "impact on oil fundamentals remains limited so far".Oil prices have been marginally supported after Libya's National Oil Corp on Monday declared force majeure on the loading of oil from two major oilfields after the latest development in a long-running military conflict.Unless oil facilities return to operation quickly, OPEC member Libya's crude output will be reduced to about 72,000 bpd from about 1.2 million bpd."The Libyan pipeline blockade continued to have a muted impact on sentiment ... There is a consensus that the disruption will prove short-lived," .Supply is likely to continue to rise, with U.S. crude production in large shale deposits expected to rise to record highs in February, though the pace of increase is likely to be the lowest in about year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Tuesday.U.S. crude inventories were likely to have fallen for a second week last week, a Reuters poll showed, but gasoline stocks are expected to have risen for an 11th week in a row. Weekly U.S. energy reports have been delayed a day in observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday on Monday. .

Oil prices at 7-week low on forecast for surplus in crude supplies - Oil futures fell on Wednesday to mark their lowest settlement in about seven weeks as fears of an oversupply of crude, and potential hit to demand on the back of the coronavirus outbreak in China, outweighed a disruption to Libyan production. West Texas Intermediate crude for March delivery CLH20, -1.59% fell $1.64, or 2.8%, to settle at $56.74 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That was the lowest settlement for a front-month contract since Dec. 3, according to Dow Jones Market Data. March Brent crude BRNH20, -1.33% lost $1.38, or 2.1%, to finish at $63.21 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe—the lowest since Dec. 4. “The fact that potentially around 1 million [barrels a day] of supply is offline whilst outright oil prices move lower signals a broader concern over continued oversupply potential,” wrote analysts at JBC Energy, a Vienna-based consulting firm, in a note. Oil had rallied early Tuesday after Libya’s largest oil field shut down production after a pipeline was cut off, but ended the day lower. The topic of supplies was underlined by remarks Tuesday by International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland. Birol said he sees “an abundance of energy supply in terms of oil and gas. It’s the reason that recent incidents we have seen — with the Iranian general, Qassem Soleimani, killed, Libya unrest — didn’t boost international oil prices,” Reuters reported. In its annual World Energy Outlook report Wednesday, the IEA said increasing U.S. shale output will continue to blunt the influence of other energy producers, including members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Oil slump deepens as China virus casts cloud over fuel demand, economy - Oil prices fell to their lowest in seven weeks on Thursday, sliding more than 1% on concern that the spread of a respiratory virus from China may lower fuel demand if it stunts economic growth in an echo of the SARS epidemic nearly 20 years ago. Brent crude futures fell $1.82, or 2.9%, to $61.37 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures fell $1.83, or 3.2%, to $54.91 a barrel. The contract declined 2.7% on Wednesday. The so-called novel coronavirus has killed 17 people through respiratory illness since it emerged late last year in Wuhan, a city of 11 million people in central China. Nearly 600 cases have been confirmed and city authorities have shut transport networks, urging residents not to leave to prevent the contagion spreading. The potential for a pandemic has stirred memories of the Sudden Acute Respiratory Syndrome epidemic in 2002-2003, which also started in China, and dented economic growth and led to a slump in travel. “Downside demand risks due to the Wuhan virus appear to be a growing concern for the market, and understandably so, with any clampdown on travel likely to weigh on fuel demand,” ING Research said. Overseas airlines, along with rail operators from Hong Kong and elsewhere have also started shutting down connections to Wuhan, essentially now in lockdown. “We estimate a price shock of up to $5 (a barrel) if the crisis develops into a SARS-style epidemic based on historical oil price movements,” JPM Commodities Research said in a note. The U.S. bank maintained its forecasts for Brent to average $67 a barrel in the first quarter and $64.50 a barrel throughout 2020.

WTI Bounces Off $55 After Small Crude Draw - Oil prices have extended their losses after last night's surprise crude build reported by API, not helped by the increasing concerns over demand reductions due to the spread of the Wuhan Coronavirus across the world’s biggest oil importer.“Sentiment has turned negative,” as the coronavirus is set to affect demand, said Andrew Lebow, senior partner at New York consultant Commodity Research Group. The virus fears have overshadowed concern over the halt of exports from Libya.  DOE:

• Crude -405k (-1.0mm exp)
• Cushing -961k
• Gasoline +1.745mm (+3.3mm exp)
• Distillates -1.185mm (+1.6mm exp)

Ongoing major builds in products continued with the 11th weekly gasoline inventory rise but crude and distillates surprised with small draws... US Crude production held at a new record high in the last week and we note that the rig count has somewhat stabilized from its almost constant down-trend. Oil is bearing the brunt of the anxiety due to the potential hit to travel, especially as it’s happening just before the Lunar New Year holidays, the biggest human migration in the world. Goldman Sachs predicts the virus may crimp global demand by 260,000 barrels a day this year - with jet fuel accounting for around two-thirds of the loss - if the SARS epidemic in 2003 is any guide.WTI traded at a $54 handle ahead of the DOE print - its weakest since November...

  Oil hits 11-week low as China slowdown fears weigh - Oil prices fell 2% on Thursday on concern that the spread of a virus from China could lower fuel demand if it stunts economic growth, but losses were limited by a drawdown in U.S. crude inventories.Brent crude futures lost $1.20, or 1.9%, to trade at $62.00 per barrel, after having touched $61.25 a barrel, the lowest since early December.U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $1.15, or 2%, to settle at $55.59 a barrel. The contract earlier fell to $54.77 a barrel, the lowest since Nov. 1.Two Chinese cities were put in lockdown on Thursday as health authorities around the world scrambled to prevent a global pandemic. The coronavirus outbreak has killed 17 people and infected nearly 600.The potential for a pandemic has stirred memories of the Sudden Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak in 2002-03, which also started in China and caused a slump in travel."Such health issues represent significant impediments to normal travel and as a result, have forced the oil market to discount some significant weakening in jet and diesel fuel demand that is extremely difficult to measure until the spread of the health virus is contained," said Jim Ritterbusch, president of trading advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates.With coronavirus cases detected as far as away as the United States, global stock markets also felt the effects of fears that the virus could spread further as millions of Chinese prepare to travel for the Lunar New Year this weekend." We estimate a price shock of up to $5 (a barrel) if the crisis develops into a SARS-style epidemic," JPM Commodities Research said in a note.The U.S. bank maintained its forecast for Brent to average $67 in the first quarter and $64.50 throughout 2020.Amid recent heightened tension between the United States and Iran, the United States on Thursday imposed Iran-related sanctions on two individuals and six companies, including four firms tied to the National Iranian Oil Company.Tempering losses, U.S. crude inventories fell 405,000 barrels last week, although gasoline stockpiles rose to their highest on record after 11 weeks of consecutive builds, the Energy Information Administration reported.

Oil drops more than 1%, heads for weekly loss on China virus concerns  - Oil slipped below $62 a barrel on Friday and was heading for a weekly decline as concern that a virus in China may spread, curbing travel and oil demand, overshadowed supply cuts. The virus has prompted the suspension of public transport in 10 Chinese cities. Health authorities fear the infection rate could accelerate over the Lunar New Year holiday this weekend, when millions of Chinese travel to their homes and abroad. Global benchmark Brent fell 69 cents, or 1%, to $61.35. Brent was down about 4% this week, its third consecutive weekly drop. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 69 cents, or 1.2%, to $54.90 per barrel. “One should be prepared for negative surprises when it comes to Chinese demand,” said Eugen Weinberg, analyst at Commerzbank. “The impact of this is all the greater because the restrictions are being imposed during the busiest travel season for the Chinese.” China is the world’s second-largest oil consumer so any slowdown in travel would show up on demand forecasts. Offering some support for prices was the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s latest weekly supply report, which on Thursday showed that crude inventories fell 405,000 barrels in the week to Jan. 17. Nonetheless, the upside for prices was limited. Oil inventories in the wider industrialized world are above the five-year average according to OPEC figures, which analysts say is limiting the impact on prices of supply losses. “Such is the bearish pressure that a raft of ongoing crude supply outages are not gaining much traction,” said analysts at JBC Energy in a report.

Oil drops the most since July on fears coronavirus will hit growth  - Oil posted its worst week since July as the coronavirus outbreak continues to pressure prices. A slowdown in China’s economy would impact demand because China is the world’s largest crude oil importer, after importing a record 10.12 million barrels per day in 2019, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. China is also the second-largest oil consumer, behind the United States. On Friday, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 2.5%, or $1.40, to settle at $54.19. At the session low WTI hit $53.85, its lowest level since Oct. 31. This was the fourth straight day of losses, and the contract declined 7.4% for a third straight week of declines. International benchmark Brent crude dropped 2.2% to settle at $60.69, bringing its weekly loss to roughly 6.4%, which was also the third straight week of declines. The flu-like coronavirus, first identified on Dec. 31 in the Chinese city of Wuhan, has already killed at least 26 people and infected more than 900 worldwide. The virus has spread to South Korea, Japan, Thailand, Vietnam and the United States, among other places. On Friday, the CDC confirmed the second case in the U.S. More than 33 million people are now under travel restrictions in China, which could impact jet fuel demand. The timing is especially important because Chinese New Year, which starts tomorrow, is the world’s largest annual human migration. “When cities are placed under quarantine, and public transit is shut down, by definition that reduces economic activity and has a negative impact on energy demand, oil included,” Raymond James analyst John Freeman said in a note to clients Friday. “Once there is evidence that the outbreak is contained and thus economic disruption subsiding, sentiment on oil should improve, bringing prices back up.”

Why The Coronavirus Is A Real Threat To Oil Markets- It impairs your breathing, causes extreme fatigue and fevers. It kills. And beyond that, it’s keeping oil prices low by threatening to stifle oil demand in one of the world’s largest oil markets.  It’s SARS CoV, better known as the SARS Coronavirus, and it’s shaping up to be the oil market’s biggest nemesis this year. And there’s no cure.SARS, which stands for severe acute respiratory syndrome, is not only deadly, but highly contagious—more contagious than originally thought, and this coronavirus-inspired fear has now decisively spilled over into the oil market. With highly contagious and deadly viruses like the SARS CoV, fear rules the day. Whether it’s a personal fear that one might catch the virus, or whether one actually catches the virus, the result is that people will stop traveling to some extent. Even the fear that people may stop traveling is enough to result in an economic slump. Whether one catches the virus or not is irrelevant economically speaking—the mere perception that it’s a possibility creates ripples in the world economy as people change traveling, purchasing, and trading patterns.  The oil markets are obsessed with China—specifically China’s demand for oil.  Oil demand was at the forefront of all the pricing moves throughout 2019. The thought of dampened demand from the world’s second largest oil consumer outweighs even significant geopolitical risk, as well as tangible oil production outages such as the attacks on Saudi Aramco oil facilities in September and Libya's current nearly complete outage of over 1 million barrels per day. One may look at China’s oil consumption, at 13.5 million bpd in 2018, as being far below that of the United States, which consumed 20.5 million bpd that same year. So, why all the China fuss? Surely U.S. demand would move markets more than China? But it’s the oil demand growth that moves prices, and China’s oil demand growth (and India’s too) is far greater than that of the United States. In fact, China’s oil demand has been growing at an annual rate of 5.5%, while the United States’ oil demand has been growing by 0.5%.And most of what China uses, it imports, adding another layer of market-sway into the mix.This is what moves markets.Not even OPEC and its jawbone to herald its oil production-cut prowess can outshine negative news about what is already China's slowing demand growth. And of all the threats to the oil industry that people were expecting in 2020, no one saw this coming: the virus ripping through China at unprecedented rates is eating into China's oil demand more than anyone could have ever expected.

Jeff Bezos hack: Amazon boss's phone 'hacked by Saudi crown prince' --The Amazon billionaire Jeff Bezos had his mobile phone “hacked” in 2018 after receiving a WhatsApp message that had apparently been sent from the personal account of the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, sources have told the Guardian.The encrypted message from the number used by Mohammed bin Salman is believed to have included a malicious file that infiltrated the phone of the world’s richest man, according to the results of a digital forensic analysis.  This analysis found it “highly probable” that the intrusion into the phone was triggered by an infected video file sent from the account of the Saudi heir to Bezos, the owner of the Washington Post.The two men had been having a seemingly friendly WhatsApp exchange when, on 1 May of that year, the unsolicited file was sent, according to sources who spoke to the Guardian on the condition of anonymity.Large amounts of data were exfiltrated from Bezos’s phone within hours, according to a person familiar with the matter. The Guardian has no knowledge of what was taken from the phone or how it was used.The extraordinary revelation that the future king of Saudi Arabia may have had a personal involvement in the targeting of the American founder of Amazonwill send shockwaves from Wall Street to Silicon Valley.It could also undermine efforts by “MBS” – as the crown prince is known – to lure more western investors to Saudi Arabia, where he has vowed to economically transform the kingdom even as he has overseen a crackdown on his critics and rivals.The disclosure is likely to raise difficult questions for the kingdom about the circumstances around how US tabloid the National Enquirer came to publish intimate details about Bezos’s private life – including text messages – nine months later. It may also lead to renewed scrutiny about what the crown prince and his inner circle were doing in the months prior to the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, the Washington Post journalist who was killed in October 2018 – five months after the alleged “hack” of the newspaper’s owner.

Saudi Crown Prince Likely Used Israeli Spyware to Hack Bezos’ Phone: UN Experts — An examination of Jeff Bezos’ mobile revealed “an anomalous and extreme change in phone behaviour” after the Amazon CEO received a file from a WhatsApp account associated with the Saudi crown prince, two UN special rapporteurs said on Wednesday. There is “reasonable belief” that the behaviour on Bezos’ phone was the result of Pegasus spyware sold to the Saudis by the Israeli NSO Group, the rapporteurs said in a statement summarising the findings of an “in-depth, forensic level examination.” Their comments come a day after reports citing forensic experts alleged that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s WhatsApp account was used to hack Bezos’ phone in May 2018.

Bezos hack: UN to address alleged Saudi hacking of Amazon boss’s phone - UN investigators are poised to release a statement about the alleged hacking of Jeff Bezos’s mobile phone after the Guardian revealed details of a forensic analysis that has implicated a WhatsApp account purportedly owned by the crown prince of Saudi Arabia.  The astonishing disclosure prompted a Democratic lawmaker in the US to urgently demand more information about the malware that was allegedly used to infiltrate Bezos’s phone in the 2018 hack of the Amazon founder.Ron Wyden, a Democratic senator from Oregon, said in a letter to Bezos that the alleged breach of the billionaire’s phone “appears to be part of a growing trend”, citing reports that Saudi Arabia had acquired cyber-hacking capabilities from Hacking Team, based in Italy, and Israel’s NSO Group.Wyden reacted following a Guardian story that cites sources who said the alleged “hack” occurred after Bezos apparently received a video file sent to him by Mohammed bin Salman’s WhatsApp account. Large amounts of data were allegedly exfiltrated from Bezos’s phone within hours of him receiving the video file. David Kaye, a UN special rapporteur on freedom of opinion and expression, said in a tweet that he and Agnès Callamard, the special rapporteur on extrajudicial murders, would announce further information about the alleged Bezos hack on Wednesday morning.Bezos – the owner of the Washington Post – is the most high-profile alleged victim of Saudi Arabia’s cyber-surveillance efforts, but independent experts have concluded that a number of dissidents and activists living outside Saudi Arabia have also been targeted by the kingdom. They include close associates of Jamal Khashoggi, the Washington Post journalist who was murdered in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in October 2018. Saudi press officials did not return a request for comment, but the Saudi embassy in Washington said in a tweet in response to the Guardian’s story: “Recent media reports that suggest the kingdom is behind a hacking of Mr Jeff Bezos’s phone are absurd. We call for an investigation on these claims so that we can have all the facts out.”

Iraqi Oil Field Halts as Reform-Driven Protests Escalate - Iraq temporarily stopped work on an oil field on Sunday and supply from a second production site is at risk as widespread unrest escalates in one of OPEC’s biggest producers. Protesters also shut down border crossings with Iran, according to local media. Oil prices jumped about 1.8% in Asian hours on Monday as the stoppage coincided with disruptions from Libya, reigniting fears over security of supply. Security guards seeking permanent employment contracts have blocked access to the Al Ahdab field, prompting a halt in production, according to an official who couldn’t be identified. The Badra field is at risk of closure from Monday. Around 600 people have died and thousands of others have been wounded in clashes between security forces and protesters since Oct. 1. Iraqis, mostly from the Shiite majority population, are protesting against government corruption, poor services, and are calling for an overhaul of the ruling class. The protests led to a brief halt of the Nasiriya field and refinery in December. Al Ahdab, which was developed by China’s CNPC, produces about 70,000 barrels of oil a day. Badra, whose shareholders include Russia’s Gazprom Neft, has output of about 50,000 barrels a day. Iraq pumped about 4.65 million barrels a day of crude in December, putting it second behind Saudi Arabia among members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Separately, protesters closed the Badrat Mehran and al-Sheib border crossings with Iran as part of the intensifying demonstrations against the Iraqi government and Iranian influence in the country, the Saudi Al Arabiya television network reported. At least 30 protesters were wounded Sunday, some critically, as police used tear gas grenades in Baghdad, said Iraq’s al-Sumaria News, citing security officials.

Oil Companies Face Serious Decisions on Iraq - Many oil and gas companies face serious decisions regarding their short and mid-term plans in Iraq, where tensions remain high. That’s according to Rystad Energy, which made the statement in a comment posted on its website on Thursday. In the statement, Rystad highlighted that Iraqi oil production averaged more than 4.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2019. The company outlined that around 1.8 million bpd stemmed from the country’s domestic and state-owned players and around three million bpd came from international oil firms. Companies headquartered in China collectively produced more than one million bpd, E&Ps from the UK produced beyond 630,000 bpd and Russian players had combined average output of around 330,000 bpd, according to Rystad. PetroChina and BP had the largest working interest production for overseas companies, at 880,000 and 606,000 bpd, respectively, Rystad noted. Rystad said U.S.-based companies collectively produced about 180,000 bpd on average last year. According to Rystad, before the recent flaring of tensions, BP had been expected to allocate about four percent of its annual $25.6 billion global oil and gas spending budget towards projects in Iraq. “The company has managed an ambitious water injection program that is helping to boost its output and make BP the third largest producer in Iraq, but the fate of this program is now uncertain,” Rystad said in the statement. Earlier this month, a U.S. Department of Defense statement confirmed that the U.S. military had killed Iranian general Qasem Soleimani at the direction of President Trump. The move was made “to protect U.S. personnel abroad” according to the statement. Following the killing, the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Hassan Rouhani, stated his country “will take revenge”. Fitch Solutions has since stated that it believes full scale war is the least desirable outcome for both the United States and Iran.

Troop Injuries "Emerged Days After": Pentagon's Shifting Iran Attack Casualty Narrative Gets More Absurd -- A mere days ago the American public was still being told there were no American casualties as a result of Iran's Jan.8 ballistic missile attack on an Iraqi base hosting US forces.   And over a week ago, days following the attack, Secretary of Defense Mark Esper said there was only damage to property at Al-Asad air base, going so far as to underscore: "Most importantly, no casualties, no friendly casualties, whether they are US, coalition, contractor, etc.," according to an official statement at the time. But after on Friday it was revealed that eleven US soldiers were injured in the attack — some of them significantly given they were flown out of Iraq to be treated for head injuries — belatedly confirmed by US officials, the Pentagon is now pretending there was never a discrepancy in its clearly shifting accounts. Eight were actually flown all the way to medical facilities in Germany for advanced treatment, with three flown to Kuwait.   "The Pentagon said on Friday there had been no effort to play down or delay the release of information on concussive injuries from Iran's Jan. 8 attack on a base hosting U.S. forces in Iraq, saying the public learned just hours after the defense secretary," Reuters reports.  And then of course the gratuitous implication that anyone claiming otherwise has a conspiracy theory agenda: "This idea that there was an effort to de-emphasize injuries for some sort of amorphous political agenda doesn't hold water," Pentagon spokesman Jonathan Hoffman said.

The US operation in Iraq could come to an embarrassing end. Iran's power will only grow -  Donald Trump hasn't pulled his troops out of Iraq, despite his pledge to end America's grinding wars. It turns out he may not have to. The US is facing the possibility of being kicked out,and that would be a big win for Iran. Officials in Iraq's parliament, where powerful blocs have unbreakable ties to Tehran, started a process to end the presence of foreign troops in the country, in a clear riposte to the US after it killed top Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani in a drone strike in Baghdad two weeks ago.In the wake of the strike, joint US-Iraqi operations against ISIS were put on hold, and Iraq's caretaker prime minister said a US troop withdrawal was the only way to "protect all those on Iraqi soil," though this week he said that decision would be up to the next government.But a US withdrawal could bring even more trouble, experts say. ISIS continues its attacks in the country, and without US and other foreign troops, the group would have more room to resurge. At the same time, Iran will be able to expand its already far-reaching powers in Baghdad. Tehran and Washington have competed for influence in Iraq since the US 2003 invasion, and in that battle, Iran is already winning. Its consistent and coherent strategy, which the US lacks, has allowed Tehran to gradually weave itself into the fabric of everyday life in Iraq.It has capitalized on years of war and occupation to form militia groups that have become official factions of the Iraqi military, while economically, it provides an enormous amount of exports that Iraqis have come to rely on. It has made surrogates out of senior Iraqi government officials and members of parliament.Because of those links, the Iraqi parliament's decision to side with Iran after the attack on Soleimani is not surprising. The strike appears to have backfired, to the benefit of Iran's long-term goal: getting the US out of the region. "Iran is the most influential state in Iraq now," said Fawaz Gerges, a professor of international relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science. "That power is only going to grow if the US leaves."

Morbidly Obese Jabba The Jihadi ISIS Leader Caught In Iraq -- A long 'most wanted' ISIS mufti responsible for ordering gruesome killings, kidnappings, rapes, as well as the destruction of the northern Iraqi city of Mosul's ancient heritage has been captured by an elite Iraqi SWAT team raid. The massively obese terror leader named Shifa al-Nima, known within the Islamic State as Abu Abdul Bari, has been dubbed “Jabba the Jihadi” and photos posted online showed that after his capture police had to load him onto the back of a flatbed truck to accommodate his some 560-pounds. Considered one of the biggest captures in recent months due to his heading up still active but underground "ISIS gangs" in the region, he was nabbed at his hideout in Mosul earlier this week. Lately he was known to issue sermons and messages to his followers to target Iraqi police. And according to an Iraqi police statement, “He is considered one of the foremost leaders of ISIS and was responsible for issuing fatwas that led to the murder of scholars and clerics.” The fat mufti was also well-known for issuing a fatwa in 2014 to bomb one of Mosul's most revered pilgrimage sites — a mosque believed to be site of the tomb of the Prophet Jonah — which attracted Muslims and Christians alike.  The Islamic State's strict Wahhabi interpretation of Islam forbids such veneration of tombs or religious places, and therefore sought to demolish any historical site it considered 'unIslamic'. 

 Iraq doesn't want to be a 'long-term battleground' between US and Iran, says energy CEO -- Iraq doesn't want to be caught in a "tug of war" between the U.S. and Iran,according to the chief executive officer of a UAE-based oil and gas company."It's perhaps a bit late, but (Iraq is) trying to avoid becoming — long term — a battleground between the two sides," Majid Jafar, CEO of Crescent Petroleum, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Monday.Tensions between Washington and Tehran escalated earlier this month after a U.S. airstrike in Baghdad killed Iran's top military commander Qasem Soleimani. Iran responded by firing missiles at American targets in Iraq, but both countries now appear to have stepped back from further military actions.Iraqis want to see "good relations" both on the economic and political fronts, but don't want "negative foreign interference" in their own domestic affairs, Jafar said. "They don't want to be used ... in a tug of war between two sides."Iraqi protesters erect barricades amid clashes with riot police following a demonstration at Baghdad's Tayaran Square, east of Tahrir Square, on January 20, 2020. Three Iraqi protesters were killed in the capital as thousands of anti-government demonstrators sought to shut streets across the country today, their deadline for authorities to implement long-awaited reforms.AHMAD AL-RUBAYE | AFP | Getty ImagesInstead, the country wants to achieve a "balance," he said.While Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi asked the U.S. to start working on a plan to withdraw armed forces from the country, Jafar said Baghdad wasn't "setting a deadline or kicking out" American troops immediately.On the other hand, Iran is a neighbor and "played a key role" when Iraq was threatened by terrorist group ISIS."Iraq didn't need this U.S.-Iran conflict, and is very hopeful that things have calmed down now," he said.Jafar also weighed in on the unrest in Iraq."They've called for new government, new system of government that is non-sectarian, that is not corrupt, that actually delivers," he said."They are mostly young, male, almost all unemployed, with very little to lose, and patience is wearing thin," he added. "There is real pressure now to move forward with a new government, new elections."

Hundreds of thousands gather in Baghdad demanding US forces leave - Massive crowds filled the streets of Baghdad on Friday, protesting the presence of American troops in the country. The protest was organized by anti-American Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr and was given legitimacy by Iraqi armed forces that have close ties to Iran, The New York Times reports. Al-Sadr called for a "million man march." The protests come three weeks after President Trump authorized an airstrike in the country that killed top Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani. Iran retaliated against the U.S. a few days later, launching a missile strike at two military bases in Iraq that house U.S. troops. The breach of Iraqi sovereignty and the subsequent heightened tensions between the U.S. and Iran led Iraq's Parliament to pass a resolution calling for American troops to leave, though a specific timeline was not set. According to the Times, people from across the country were being bused in for the protests. There was a heavy security presence surrounding the march's path and the Green Zone that houses the U.S. Embassy, according to a report by CNN. 

The US and Iran’s perpetual almost-war is unsustainable – and will end badly  - Today Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei gave his first Friday sermon in Tehran for eight years to an audience of thousands, as he tried to calm down the furious public reaction to the Revolutionary Guards mistakenly shooting down a Ukrainian plane carrying 176 passengers, then proceeding to lie about their responsibility for three days. Khameinei spoke of the “cowardly” killing of General Qassem Soleimaniby the US, of President Trump using the destruction of the plane to “push a poison dagger” into the backs of the Iranian people. Rhetorical flourishes like this are not going do him a lot of good with critics who see the shootdown as epitomising the incompetence, duplicity and division of his government. But the nature of the crisis differs markedly from the way it is being portrayed abroad. For more has gone wrong than a series of blunders. Obscured amid the plaudits and denunciations directed at Soleimani and Khamenei is the fact that both men’s policies in the Middle East had become counterproductive. Over the last four years, Iran has had great success in spreading its influence in countries with large Shia populations. But it has failed to consolidate the status quo it played such a large role in creating. “The Iranians are good at gathering cards, but not at playing them,” is an old saying in the region. Despite Iranian successes in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, the power structure in all three countries is rickety and prone to crises. Over the last four months, Iraq, Lebanon and Iran have been rocked by mass protest, while Syria is in the final throes of civil war. Much depends on how the Iranian leadership responds in the next few months to the assassination of Soleimani, formerly their high-profile viceroy overseeing the Iranian zone of influence. They could continue to head towards a full scale US-Iran conflict or, just possibly, veer towards some sort of compromise deal. Neither side wants a war, as demonstrated by America’s belated revelation that 11 of its soldiers were injured by the Iranian ballistic missile strike on two of its bases in Iraq on 8 January. At the time, Trump had reassured the world that there were no American casualties. and therefore no need for him to retaliate. Meanwhile, Iranian paramilitaries in Iraq have been instructed not to attack US facilities in order to de-escalate the crisis.

Iran has been changed forever by admitting its great mistake – yet the west ignores its own deceits - After its anti-aircraft missile destroyed Ukrainian Airways flight 752 this month, Iran’s initial lie – that its loss was due to engine problems – was uttered not to “attend” the truth but to protect the Iranian regime from being blamed in case its people discovered the truth. Which, of course, they quickly did. There was a time when you could get away with this sort of giant fib. In a pre-technology age, almost any catastrophe could be glossed – we still talk about a disaster “shrouded in mystery” – but phone cameras, missile-tracking, long-range radar and satellites quickly expose a lie. The loss of Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 almost six years ago is the only exception I can think of. True, Mubarak actually surrounded Cairo’s television headquarters with tanks in 2011 in an antediluvian attempt to stop a revolution powered by mobile phone messages. But the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and the Iranian military are so computer-savvy that they could hardly have misunderstood what they had done to the Ukrainian aircraft. The idea, still touted by the regime, that there were “communications” problems (for more than three days, for heavens’ sake) is preposterous. What really happened, I suspect, is that both President Hassan Rouhani and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei both knew within an hour what had happened, but were so appalled that a nation whose very name bears the title of “Islamic”, and whose supposedly revered if corrupted Revolutionary Guards had been promoted as both God-fearing and flawless, that they simply did not know how to respond. They were faced with The Truth. So they told a lie. Thus the very image of spotless theology which was supposed to sustain Iran’s image was shattered by error – and then by dishonesty. No wonder Iranians returned to the streets. Iran made a mistake, but to compound a tragic mistake with a blatant – and then admitted — falsehood was close to Original Sin. The people are not about to overthrow the regime, as Trump’s acolytes and the usual US “experts” suggest. But Iran has been changed forever. No longer can its religious leaders claim papal infallibility. If they can lie about killing innocents on a Ukrainian airliner – most of them Iranian — then surely their jurisprudence might prove equally flawed. Those who demand obedience from their loyal followers cannot expect their audience to accept their future pronouncements – on Trump or God – with the same sacred trust. For quite a while, the Revolutionary Guards who hitherto presented themselves as potential martyrs for Islam are going to be known as The Guys Who Fired the Missile. Now let’s remember that we in the West have grown so used to our own dishonesty – and being caught out – that we scarcely flinch at the word “lie”. Let me ask a frank question: save for the flies around Trump, is there anyone who actually believes the “intelligence” information about Qassem Suleimani’s plans to attack or blow up four US embassies (or five, or six, or whatever)?

Iran Now Banned From Hosting International Soccer Matches - As if Iran's already near total isolation from the so-called international community amid crippling US sanctions wasn't enough, the country has now been banned from hosting foreign teams for soccer matches on its soil. It appears yet more fallout to the accidental shoot down of the Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 on Jan. 8, which tragically killed all 176 people on board. Iran says it was informed Friday by the Asian Football Confederation that it's essentially being sanctioned by the league: Iran’s soccer federation said Friday it has been told it will not be hosting any international matches on Iranian soil.The federation said it received a letter from the Asian Football Confederation saying that all matches involving Iranian teams will be held in a third country.  Iran says it plans to protest the decision, pointing to recent past successes in hosting major events, such as the 2018 AFC Champions League tournament held in Iran.It's also unclear if perhaps US sanctions threats or pressures were brought to bear on the Asian Football Confederation, which includes 47 member countries across Asia and Australia, and includes Gulf nations, as well as China, India and Pakistan.

Masked Gunmen Assassinate Iranian Commander in Front of His Own Home - Earlier today, masked gunmen assassinated a local commander of the Basij paramilitary security forces in Iran’s southwestern Khuzestan province in front of his house. Abdolhosein Mojaddami was shot dead by two unknown persons who were riding a motorcycle according to the official IRNA news agency. Mojaddami, who headed the local Basij force in the town of Darkhoein, was said to be an associate of the recently slain top general Qassem Soleimani. The Basij is a volunteer organisation operating under the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC) and is used for internal security and other tasks such as clamping down against dissent. According to Iranian media, no one has yet claimed responsibility for the assassination nor has a motive been established. There is however speculation that terrorist organisations such as the Arab Struggle Movement for the Liberation of Ahvaz (ASMLA), which has conducted terrorist attacks in the past such as the 2018 attack on a military parade in the same region and whom the Iranian government accuses of receiving foreign support, may be behind the attack. Separately on Sunday, an IRGC base in the capital Tehran, the Mohammad Rasoulollah base was attacked by “defiant youth”, according to the website associated with the terrorist group the People’s Mujahedin of Iran (MEK), the following day, a police building in Mashhad in the country’s north-east was also targeted with footage emerging online of explosions at the site. It is not clear if there were any casualties or if the MEK was directly responsible.

Soleimani's Replacement Faces Same Fate If He Attacks Americans- US Top Iran Envoy - A top White House and State Department special envoy for Iran has warned Soleimani's successor that he'll face the same fate as the slain IRGC Quds Force commander if he begins ordering attacks on Americans.  US Special Representative for Iran Brian Hook told the the Arabic-language daily Asharq al-Awsat: “If (Esmail) Ghaani follows the same path of killing Americans then he will meet the same fate,” according to Reuters. For over two decades Esmail Ghaani served as Soleimani's deputy chief before being named to chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) foreign arm which oversees all covert operations and military action abroad.  Hook gave the interview on the sidelines of the World Economic Summit in Davos while accompanying Trump. He said of the president that he has long had a clear policy “that any attack on Americans or American interests would be met with a decisive response.”“This isn’t a new threat. The president has always said that he will always respond decisively to protect American interests,” Hook said. “I think the Iranian regime understands now that they cannot attack America and get away with it.”Ghaani, meanwhile recently vowed he would “continue in this luminous path” taken by Soleimani following threats by leaders in Tehran that “severe” vengeance will continue, which by many indicators has not concluded after the Jan.8 ballistic missile 'response' strike on US positions in Iraq.

Europe dispatches naval flotilla to threaten Iran, Syria - Yesterday the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle left the French port of Toulon after President Emmanuel Macron announced in a January 16 speech to the armed forces that it would participate in Operation Chammal, the US-led bombing of Islamic State (IS) targets, for three months. This comes less than three weeks after Washington assassinated the Iranian regime’s second-highest official, General Qassem Suleimani, in Iraq. Thus, France and the European powers are intensifying their military intervention in the Middle East and the Mediterranean. Paris also announced a European naval surveillance mission in the strategic straits of Hormuz, off the Iranian coast, also involving German, Belgian, Dutch, Spanish, Portuguese and Greek ships. The French Foreign Ministry published a communiqué declaring that Paris is deploying the carrier and its Rafale jets, armed with thermonuclear bombs, amid an explosive risk of war in the region.It declared: “Recent events in the Middle East are a matter of real concern, as they stoke tensions and increase the risk of a potential large-scale war. Fully respecting international law, especially the UN Convention on the Laws of the Sea, the mission will concretely furnish knowledge and surveillance of the naval situation by deploying supplementary naval surveillance assets in the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea.” On Europe, French Defence Minister Florence Parly denied that such missions put “pressure on Iran. … France has made clear it wants to contribute to de-escalation in a region hit by very sharp tensions.” She claimed, “We have arrived at a point where there is no more escalation or, in any case, where escalation seems to have stopped.” Parly claimed that France’s deployment of a carrier constitutes a “counterweight to the US strategy of putting maximum pressure on Iran.”  Whatever Parly claims, this patrol testifies to Europe’s growing involvement, following in Washington’s wake, in the spiral of military escalation and war in the Middle East. The NATO imperialist powers are each bidding to increase their share of the profits from plundering the region. Washington in particular sees Iran as an obstacle to its military domination of the region, notably because Tehran is developing ties with Russia and China after 30 years of imperialist war launched by NATO’s war on Iraq in 1991.

US Forces In Tense Showdown With Russian Convoy On Blocked Syrian Highway - An extremely dangerous and rare incident played out in northeast Syria between the conflict's two most powerful rival forces on Saturday when opposing American and Russian military convoys encountered each other on a highway. The incident was filmed and published online by a - nti-Assad opposition group Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), which described a major traffic jam outside the city of Al-Malikiyah, an oil-producing area of the country which has been occupied by American troops.SOHR said the busy highway was halted "after US forces prevented a Russian patrol from continuing its way to countryside of Al-Malikiyah city." Though not precisely clear which convoy was the aggressor side from the video — or which caused the blockage — needless to say it was a tense and potentially explosive encounter given Moscow sees US presence in Syria as illegal and as an act of military aggression, while Washington in turn sees Russian troops as enemies bolstering Assad and Iran in the Middle East. Other regional outlets, for example in Turkish media, also blamed the US side for maneuvering to block the Russian troops' advance. Anadolu reports the Russian patrol was blocked from going near a key oil field in the area:  According to information Anadolu Agency obtained from reliable local sources, U.S. soldiers blocked a Russian military patrol en route to the oil field. Tension occurred between the two groups, when U.S. soldiers asked Russian soldiers to return to the Amuda district in the northwest of Hasakah. Russian soldiers had to return to where they came from as their way to Rumeylan, where the U.S. airbase is located, was blocked.

 US Troops Seen Blocking Russians From Syrian Oilfields In Series Of Dangerous Standoffs - Yet another dangerous incident has played out between American and Russian forces operating in Syria in what appears a series of standoffs near key oil installations since Saturday. “This is the third incident that occurred within a week,” one local reporter told VOA in an alarming report. Days ago we reported on the first incident involving a US convoy blocking a Russian convoy on a highway near the town of Rmelan, after the Americans were apparently concerned the Russians were going to enter an oil field, which the US administration says it has "secured". But now Voice of America reports three total incidents, with the most recent ones happening Tuesday and Wednesday in al-Hasakah province, as newly detailed by the opposition outlet Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.All of the incidents involved US forces blocking Russian military vehicles and forcing them to turn around as they neared sensitive oil installations held by the US-backed Kurdish SDF and American special forces in Syria's northeast.

Netanyahu Rival Benny Gantz Calls For Annexation Of Jordan Valley Ahead Of Election - Candidates are trying to woo the Israeli right ahead of the country's upcoming March 2 legislative elctions for the 23rd Knesset — the third round in less than a year — after in prior April and September 2019 elections parties continually failed to form the next government.  Toward that end Blue and White coalition chairman Benny Gantz evoked controversy Tuesday with a shock declaration that he'll annex the Jordan Valley if he becomes prime minister in the next election. The centrist lawmaker did this while on tour of the region which lies at the eastern edge of the occupied West Bank and which makes up some 20% of the Palestinian territory. Gantz called it “an inseparable part of the State of Israel” and the Jewish state's “eastern defensive wall in any future scenario.” But right wing politicians, especially his top rival Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu scoffed, saying everyone sees through what is essentially a desperate "bluff" to peel off more support from across the aisle in what's coalesced on each side into a stalemated standoff.   Gantz vowed: “After the elections, we will work to apply [Israeli] sovereignty on the Jordan Valley, [and] we will do this in a nationally agreed upon manner and in coordination with the international community.”And on the left and within the political alliance of the main Arab-majority parties, the declaration was slammed as irresponsible and destructive to democracy. The Arab unity group, Joint List, called it “a pathetic attempt to gather a few votes on the right,” and noted that any attempt of Israel to annex the Jordan Valley would “destroy any chance democracy and peace.” Netanyahu pounced in an effort to either call the bluff or pressure his rival to move immediately on the controversial initiative, urging Gantz to right away implement the annexation through the Knesset.

Dramatic Video Shows Turkish Coast Guard Deliberately Smashing Into Migrant Boat -  After a week which tragically witnessed a sudden uptick in refugee and migrant incidents and drowning deaths in the Mediterranean, a dramatic video has been published online showing the Turkish Coast Guard resorting to extreme measures while intercepting migrant boats. The video, which first appeared via a Middle East Telegram or other social media channel, shows a small crowded motor boat full of Syrian refugees being rammed by a much larger Turkish patrol boat. Turkish coastguard deliberately ramming a boat carrying Syrian refugees #Syria #Turkey pic.twitter.com/Hv0sCRmsKb— CNW (@ConflictsW) January 19, 2020The video appeared online and went viral on Sunday; however, it's uncertain the precise date or location, but it likely took place in the Aegean Sea. Women and children can be heard screaming in the video while trying to get away from the fast-approaching Turkish vessel, after which the larger coast guard boat rams into the migrants at high speed. It's unclear the extent of injuries suffered by those in the packed boat, and no one appears armed or to have been acting aggressively. Turkey's coast guard has long been accused of taking harsh measures to prevent an estimated 60,000 to new refugees attempting to traverse the Mediterranean. It's hardly the first time migrant and refugee boats have been rammed during the dangerous trip; however, past incidents have involved human-trafficking boats or piracy-related groups and not state actors like in this case.

Leaked EU Letter Sparks Row Over Turkey Aid Cuts Linked To Gas Drilling Off Cyprus -The European Union is eyeing long promised punitive measures against Turkey for its illegal military incursion into northern Syria, as well as its unauthorized natural gas drilling off Cyprus' coast. Germany's Deutsche Welle reported on Saturday the EU has moved to cut pre-accession aid to Turkey by 75%, citing a letter sent to the European Parliament by the EU foreign affairs commissioner. The Instrument for 'Pre-Accession Assistance' (IPA) is offered in support of reforms in countries in the process of joining the EU, despite previously planned 'fast-tracked' talks for Turkey to join the European bloc stalling significantly after 2016. However, the EU quickly distanced itself the report, which appears to have originated with a leaked draft EU letter: An EU spokesman on Sunday denied media reports from the previous day that claimed the bloc had agreed to massive new cuts to pre-accession aid to Turkey.Germany's Funke Media Group had said it saw a letter from the bloc's top diplomat, Josep Borrell, announcing a 75% cut to the funds Ankara receives as a prospective EU member via the "Instrument for Pre-Accession Assistance (IPA)." — DW It appears the letter was leaked to or seen by the media prematurely, and now EU officials are scrambling to deny it.Europe has also of late been concerned over President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's growing authoritarianism and control over various branches and institutions of Turkey's government, especially since putting down the 2016 Turkish coup d'état attempt which resulted in him and his supporters emerging stronger than ever.   "Turkey will now only receive €168 million ($186 million), of which €150 million will be spent on strengthening democracy and rule of law," the original disputed Deutsche Welle report said of potential measures, threatening an aid package which is supposed to be over twice the size.  EU foreign affairs commissioner Borrell's apparently leaked letter indicated the potential slash in funds are directly related to Turkey's Syria operations against the Kurds and incursions into Cyprus' Exclusive Economic Zone. This follows the European Commission announcing sanctions in November to target "individuals or entities responsible for, or involved in, unauthorized drilling activities of hydrocarbons in the Eastern Mediterranean."

Syrian Rebels Caught on Film Getting Transferred to Libya on Commercial Plane --Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has continued warning that terrorist groups as well as a ‘flood of refugees’ will show up on Europe’s shores if the Tripoli government were to fall to renegade General Khalifa Haftar, amid his continued offensive to control the Libyan capital. Erdogan’s statement came a day before he heads to Berlin for a major peace conference which will attempt to halt the fighting.  A video has emerged showing dozens of what appear to be Syrian rebels on an Afriqiyah Airways plane headed to Libya where they will allegedly fight alongside the country’s Government of National Accord (GNA), Libyan newspaper Al-Shahid has claimed.  In the video, the men — three of whom were seen wearing military uniforms — are on their way to Libya where they will reportedly fight as mercenaries for the GNA’s militias.  The shocking video of what is supposed to be a “covert” Turkey-sponsored mission to bolster the Tripoli GNA government with both Syrian jihadist FSA mercenaries (and separately Turkish national troops) confirms new reporting in The Guardian this week. According to the bombshell Guardian report: Two thousand Syrian fighters have traveled from Turkey or will arrive imminently to fight on the battlefields of Libya, Syrian sources in all three countries have said, in an unprecedented development that threatens to further complicate the north African state’s intractable civil war.  The deployment came after Turkey agreed last month to come to the aid of the Libyan prime minister, Fayez al-Sarraj, who is backed by the UN, in the face of a months-long campaign by his rival, the warlord Khalifa Haftar. This perhaps makes Erdogan’s latest ‘warning’ appear something more like a ‘threat’ in which he’s the one actually holding the trigger. “Europe will encounter a fresh set of problems and threats if Libya’s legitimate government were to fall,” Erdogan said. “Terrorist organisations such as ISIS [ISIL or Daesh] and al-Qaeda, which suffered a military defeat in Syria and Iraq, will find a fertile ground to get back on their feet,” he continued. “Keeping in mind that Europe is less interested in providing military support to Libya, the obvious choice is to work with Turkey, which has already promised military assistance,” Erdogan added. Erdogan has long claimed Turkey’s intervention in Libya is to “combat terrorism” — which for Ankara means defeating pro-Haftar forces.

 Who will monitor a Libya cease-fire? - The EU's top diplomat has hailed the Berlin talks on Libya as a major success for German foreign policy. Next up is the tough task of enacting a permanent cease-fire, to be monitored by the bloc. Key international actors involved in the Libyan conflict met in Berlin to pave the way toward a cease-fire agreement and peace talks. The Libyan conflict has morphed into a proxy war over regional dominance and control over oil. And as the conflict will not be resolved militarily, the warring factions are now willing to seek a political solution.  At the EU foreign minister's summit in Brussels on Monday, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas insisted that one should "focus on turning Libya's fragile truce into a permanent cease-fire" before thinking about which role the European Union could now play in the North African country. Despite the success of Germany's diplomatic efforts in hosting the Libya conference, Maas remains cautious. He hopes the planned talks in Geneva, under UN auspices, will go ahead this week. At Sunday's Berlin summit, the various parties had appointed negotiators to that end, but Maas said achieving peace in Libya would take time and that now the first step would be to create the appropriate conditions on the ground. In Brussels, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell praised the outcome of the Berlin summit, calling it a great success of German diplomacy. Indeed, Germany will be satisfied that it has now has the status of a key diplomatic player in the region. French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian also praised Germany, saying the other EU member states would back the Berlin agreement and work toward bringing peace to Libya. No concrete decisions have been made to this end, however. In the short run, EU member states must discuss and agree in what sense they want to get involved in Libya, and how much money they are willing to spend. The plan is to reach a concrete agreement at the next foreign ministers' summit in February.

New Video Shows Syrian Mercenaries Patrolling Streets Of Libyan Capital -A day after France's Emmanuel Macron condemned Turkey's transferring Free Syrian Army (FSA) militants to fight in Libya at the Berlin peace conference, a new video has surfaced and is going viral which shows a group of foreign fighters strolling through the streets of Tripoli. The regional publication Libya Review describes the short video as featuring a group of Turkish-backed Syrian mercenaries walking through the capital city. Macron on Sunday slammed Turkey's program to send thousands of jihadists to fight Gen. Khalifa Haftar in Libya. Macron expressed "acute concerns over the arrival of Syrian and foreign fighters in the city of Tripoli" which "must end". Erdogan, Putin, Macron, Pompeo and other leaders were present for the talks which produced little definitive agreements other than common commitment to cease the flow of foreign weapons and fighters. According the Middle East news site Al-Masdar, one of the militants appears to be a Syrian teenager, and another greets the group with “Libya welcomes you”: Syrian fighters can be seen walking through a neighbourhood in Libyan capital Tripoli. One fighter can be heard saying “Libya welcomes you” #Libya pic.twitter.com/dBStDhoQzy  — Libya Review (@LibyaReview) January 19, 2020The video was actually published by Libya Review on the very day of the Berlin conference on Libyan peace.  It also comes days after separate video surfaced showing dozens of Syrian jihadists being flown into Tripoli on a commercial jet, in confirmation of a bombshell Guardian report which said some 2,000 Syrian mercenaries sponsored by Turkey were due to enter the Libyan battlefield in support of the government of Prime Minister Fayez al-Serraj (GNA).

Thousands Of Turkish Proxy Fighters Flood Into Libya Amid Berlin Peace Talks - Turkey is increasing its military involvement in the Libyan conflict.After officially sending its" military advisers "and officers to support the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA), Turkey set up air defense systems near Mitiga Airport. The airport hosts warplanes of the GNA Air Force, and Turkish-supplied Bayraktar TB2 combat drones. According to photos and videos available online, the deployed Turkish systems included the MIM-23 Hawk, the ACV-30 Korkut SPAAG, and the AN/MPQ-64 Sentinel 3D radar.Since the start of the advance of the Libyan National Army (LNA) led by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar on Tripoli in April 2019, Mitiga Airport repeatedly became a target of airstrikes. These strikes led to notable losses in GNA military aircraft. The Turkish move is apparently aimed at securing operations from Mitiga Airport. Despite this, the facility still remains too close to the frontline and thus any aircraft deployed there remains in a constant danger.Meanwhile, the number of members of Turkish-backed Syrian militant groups deployed in Libya reportedly grew to 2,400. According to reports, 1,700 more Syrian fighters are now passing training in military camps in Turkey before being deployed to fight on the side of the GNA. The total number of Turkish proxies in Libya remains unconfirmed. However, photos and videos appearing online indicate that hundreds of Turkish-backed fighters arrive Libya via planes on a regular basis.On January 18, the Benghazi-based government allied with the LNA blocked oil exports at ports under his control, slashing output by more than a half. According to Libya’s National Oil Corp., oil output will fall by about 800,000 barrels a day, costing $55 million daily. The corporation declared Force Majeure, which can allow Libya, which holds Africa’s largest-proven oil reserves, to legally suspend delivery contracts. The LNA says that the ports were closed in response to ‘demands of the Libyan nation’ that stands against the GNA-requested Turkish intervention.The move came ahead the Berlin conference demonstrated to international players the LNA readiness to provide own course regardless the possible cost. The conference took place on January 19 involving top delegations from the GNA, the LNA, as well as global and regional players, including the USA, Turkey, the UAE, Egypt, Russia, France, Italy and Germany. The participants of the Berlin conference declared their support the ceasefire between the GNA, the LNA, declared their commitment to a political solution of the conflict. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that the warring sides in Libya’s conflict agreed to respect an arms embargo and not to provide the varying sides with military support. The representatives of the Libyan conflict agreed to form a five-by-five military commission that should work on resolving the existing tensions. The document on Libya will have to be approved by the UN Security Council. This makes the Libyan peace process dependent on other geopolitical issues.

Haftar Blocks All Libyan Oil Exports Day Before Berlin Peace Conference - Given Libyan commander Khalifa Haftar has over the past two years captured the majority of the oil and gas rich country's energy producing regions, he's now playing his biggest card yet to leverage international peace talks in his favor amid a final push for his Libyan National Army (LNA) forces to take Tripoli. Bloomberg reports Saturday that the Benghazi-based 'rebel' general has now "blocked oil exports at ports under his control, slashing output by more than half and posing a potential setback for an international conference on Sunday that aims to broker an end to a civil war in the OPEC nation." The major talks Sunday are due to be held in Berlin, and a who's who of external backers of each side of the conflict will be in attendance, including Putin, Erdogan, France's Macron, and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, as well as the Italian prime minister and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.The Berlin conference comes after a failed deal to establish a ceasefire in Moscow earlier in the week, when Haftar left the city after the head of the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli, Fayez al-Sarraj, actually signed the agreement. Haftar also reportedly secretly scuttled to different Mediterranean capitals, including Athens, in a bid to gain recognition as legitimate leader on the ground.Haftar's drastic move to block oil exports is likely aimed at torpedoing the Berlin meeting before it even starts, given he's proven intransigent in the face of international pressure for him to halt the ongoing Tripoli offensive — even during the talks hosted by one of his key political backers Vladimir Putin. Libya's National Oil Corp. (NOC) has now declared Force Majeure, per Bloomberg: As a result of the blockage of ports in the central and eastern parts of the country, oil output will fall by about 800,000 barrels a day, costing $55 million daily, the National Oil Corp. said in a statement on Saturday. The NOC declared Force Majeure, which can allow Libya, which holds Africa’s largest-proven oil reserves, to legally suspend delivery contracts.

US Informs Haftar- Resume Libya's Blocked Oil Exports Immediately - Days after Benghazi-based General Khalifa Haftar and his rebel LNA forces blocked all oil under their control from leaving Libyan ports (the LNA currently controls territory which includes some 90% of the nation's oil facilities), the United States has demanded the immediate resumption of oil exports.“The suspension of National Oil Corporation (NOC) operations risks exacerbating the humanitarian emergency in Libya and inflicting further needless suffering on the Libyan people,” the US embassy in Tripoli said in a Twitter statement Tuesday.“NOC operations should resume immediately,” it said. Haftar had previously issued the order, which immediately resulted in condemnations from some Western capitals, on Saturday just ahead of the Berlin peace conference on Libya. The action blocked several key export terminals, notably Brega, Ras Lanuf and Al-Sidra ports. Bloomberg reported Saturday that pro-Haftar foces "blocked oil exports at ports under his control, slashing output by more than half and posing a potential setback for an international conference on Sunday that aims to broker an end to a civil war in the OPEC nation."The move is seen as aimed at protesting Turkey's increased military intervention in the conflict which has raged for much of the past two years. Turkey has recently sent both national troops and Syrian 'rebel' mercenaries to defend the Tripoli Government of National Accord (GNA). Haftar has in turn declared any Turkish vessel or aircraft a target to be destroyed. The oil stoppage also has military implications on the ground, given the GNA's national army relies on the country's oil revenue to purchase weapons via Tripoli's central bank.

Tankers Idle At Libyan Ports As Oil Exports Dry Up - Ten oil tankers capable of carrying some 8 million barrels of oil are idling near some of Libya’s oil export terminals, tanker-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg showed on Thursday, as the Libyan port blockade entered an ugly sixth day.Groups loyal to eastern strongman General Khalifa Haftar blocked virtually all exports from the African oil producer, and when storage reaches maximum capacity, it will result in a complete loss of all of Libya’s 1.2 million barrels per day of oil production and exports. “Shutdown of all affected oil fields will result in a loss of crude oil production of 1.2 million b/d and daily financial losses of approximately $77 million,” Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) said on Monday, confirming that nearly all of the OPEC member’s production will be lost due to the blockade. This is the largest outage on the oil market since the September attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities, yet it has failed to move oil prices higher.Market participants are largely ignoring the Libyan outage and are focused on the prospects of global oil demand growth this year and the pace of supply increase from non-OPEC producers, primarily the United States, Brazil, Guyana, and Norway.In addition, the new fear on the market, the outbreak of a coronavirus in China, could cut oil demand and push oil prices down by nearly $3 a barrel, Goldman Sachs said earlier this week.“However while markets are obsessing over virus developments, they seem to be ignoring a number of oil supply risks in the market, which in aggregate would far outweigh the demand impact from the Wuhan virus,” ING strategists said on Thursday.  According to ING’s estimates, the current outages around the world sum up to around 1.4 million bpd, “which would be more than enough to shift the global market into deficit over 1H20,” said Warren Patterson, ING’s Head of Commodities Strategy and Senior Commodities Strategist Wenyu Yao.   “While the market may shrug at supply losses from Libya, it would be more difficult for the market to ignore large Iraqi supply losses if they became a reality, as Iraq is OPEC’s second-largest producer,” they noted. 

Libya's Haftar Threatens To Target Civilian Planes, Declares Blanket 'No Fly Zone' - With the world's attention focused on the Coronavirus outbreak and to a lesser extent on Trump's impeachment trial, the war in Libya just got a lot more scary in terms of the potential for mass civilian death.Incredibly, Gen. Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army (LNA) just threatened to shoot down civilian planes after days ago declaring a 'no fly zone' over Tripoli following increased Turkish intervention. The BBC reports the unambiguous and shocking declaration as follows:  Gen Haftar's spokesman, Ahmad al-Mesmari, said in a statement on Wednesday that "any military or civilian aircraft, regardless of its affiliation, flying over the capital will be destroyed".In the past days Haftar has accused Turkey, which has lately openly transferred both Turkish national army troops as well as Syrian FSA mercenaries into Tripoli to fight on behalf of Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj, of using the Libyan capital's only functioning international airport as a military base. It appears the LNA is saying it will consider even commercial flights as 'fair game' because it's alleging Turkey and the GNA are using civilian aviation in a 'human shield' capacity. BBC reporting that Haftar's spokesman said in a statement Wednesday that "any military or civilian aircraft, regardless of its affiliation, flying over the capital will be destroyed"  Said spokesman’s utterances often dismissed as bluster by apologists. https://t.co/AdoHqQ7WVx — Mary Fitzgerald (@MaryFitzger) January 23, 2020The BBC has further details as follows:The GNA branded the strikes a "flagrant threat" to the safety of air traffic and a "new violation" of a ceasefire agreed earlier this month.Gen Haftar's forces did not immediately respond to the accusations, but did say they had shot down a Turkish drone after it took off from the airport.Mitiga is a former military airbase which has been used by civilian planes since Tripoli's international airport was damaged in fighting in 2014. Pro-Haftar officials have also charged that Mitiga international airport has become a drone headquarters, and further that foreign troops are disembarking there. 

Tripoli's Only Commercial Airport Targeted By 6 Missiles After Berlin 'Ceasefire' Fails - So much for any "progress" or talk of ceasefire touted days ago at the Berlin conference, when world leaders gathered to try and broker Libya peace. Wednesday's Libya headlines featured rocket attacks on Tripoli's only functioning international airport, forcing a temporary shutdown of the entire commercial hub.  Authorities at Tripoli’s Mitiga have said it's since reopened after being closed for an hour due to six military-grade Grad rockets being fired at the airport. A spokesman for the Government of National Accord (GNA) called the attack a "flagrant threat" air traffic safety and a "new violation" of the ceasefire. . The GNA statement further blamed the "war criminal Haftar" for the attack, amid his Libyan National Army (LNA) continuing the months long offensive on the capital, part of a broader two-years long campaign to take the entire country and its oil.   It has only been nine days since Mitiga airport's reopening following a truce with the LNA, which clearly didn't hold. In years past, Tripoli International Airport was the major international hub, but had in the years since the 2011 NATO war witnessed intense fighting in its vicinity, causing immense damage. Other than Mitiga, Tripoli residents are often forced to use Misrata Airport, about 125 miles away. Turkey has also weighed in on the newest attack and apparent failure the potentially internationally-brokered ceasefire, which also had Russian and Turkish involvement.  "Warlord Haftar, who posed a clear threat against the air traffic in the airport with this assault, has persistently disregarded the ceasefire call of the world," a top Turkish security official was quoted in Middle East Eye as saying. For its part, Haftar's LNA has alleged Tripoli's main aviation hub has become a legitimate military target given it's hosted Turkish aircraft, including according to pro-Haftar forces drone activity.

Syrian Fighters Abandon Libyan War, Flee Towards Italy- Report - Some Syrian fighters that went to fight in Libya have since abandoned the war and fled to Italy, opposition media sites claimed, as cited by Al-Watan.According to the reports, at least 17 of the Syrian fighters have already arrived in Italy after spending a short period of time inside Libya. The reports said that the Syrian fighters intentionally accepted the deployment to Libya in order to later escape into Italy.According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), some 2,400 Syrian fighters have already traveled to Libya thus far.Another 1,200 fighters from a number of factions in the Free Syrian Army (FSA) are expected to make their way to Libya in the coming weeks. Middle East-based reporter for The Investigative Journal Lindsey Snell was told by a Libyan National Army (LNA) source: “The mercenaries don’t believe that they will be returning to Turkey or Syria, so trying to get to Europe is the most logical option for them,” the source said.

Time to restore Egypt’s pivotal role in Libya --Since the uprisings in the Middle East, Egyptian foreign policy has seen a change in direction, falling into step with the policy decisions made by those countries opposed to the Arab Spring. This axis is led by the UAE and Saudi Arabia; Egypt’s role has shifted from one of leadership to that of a subordinate. This shift is reflected in Egypt's foreign interests and national security. The first manifestation of this transformation and its damaging consequences was the concession of the islands of Tiran and Sanafir to Saudi Arabia in 2016; the islands are of strategic significance to the Sinai Peninsula and to Egypt's national security.In a similar vein today, the complex Libyan crisis is having repercussions for Egypt’s security and is bound to become a threat on its western borders. From the first moment – as Egypt joined the axis of counter-revolution in supporting General Khalifa Haftar's forces against the internationally recognised government – Cairo sacrificed any leading role it might have played in finding a resolution. Egypt could have been a mediator between the conflicting parties, playing any number of cards to de-escalate the situation and to move towards a political solution. Owing to the complexities on the ground and the escalating military confrontation, the situation in Libya today is so complex that the international community has so far failed to get to grips with it. The conflict now involves multiple parties: there is the Egyptian-Saudi-Emirati alliance facing the Turkish-Qatari alliance, and there is the Franco-Italian struggle alongside Russia’s anti-American agenda. These conflicting and contradictory agendas in Libya represent a stumbling block in the way of any solution, and they underline the international community’s impotence. At the same time, the struggle has spread to the EU, which had been entrusted with finding a solution, but the rivalry between France and Italy, the old colonial powers in Libya, is complicating the EU’s task. Whilst the French government has publicly adopted a position of support for the legitimate government of al-Sarraj, it has been secretly pursuing another agenda of support for Haftar's forces and his military campaigns. By contrast, Italy has adopted a different position in defiance of France and in line with its view of Libya as one of its former colonies, to which it retains "a historical right". This conflict of interests has prevented a peaceful solution from being reached. Indeed, it has obliged the German government led by Chancellor Merkel to make numerous efforts to bring the French and Italian adversaries together, albeit such efforts have been in vain to date. Indeed, there are growing doubts as to whether the Berlin conference scheduled for Sunday 19 January will enable the parties to find a solution which is acceptable to all.

Moody’s downgrades Hong Kong’s ratings, saying its ability to govern effectively has been eroded by protests - Moody’s Investors Service has downgraded Hong Kong’s rating, citing concerns over the government’s lack of tangible plans to resolve the political and economic issues arising from the more than seven months of protests, dealing another blow to the city’s reputation as a business hub. The rating agency lowered the long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings of the Hong Kong government by one notch to Aa3 from Aa2, becoming the second agency to lower the city’s credit rating. In September, Fitch Ratings cut Hong Kong’s sovereign rating by one notch, to AA from AA+. “The downgrade principally reflects Moody’s view that Hong Kong’s institutions and governance strength is lower than previously estimated,” Marie Diron, managing director of Moody’s sovereign risk group, and Martin Petch, vice-president and senior credit officer of sovereign risk group, said in a statement on Monday night. Moody’s said the absence of tangible plans by the government to address the issues highlighted by the social unrest may reflect weaker inherent institutional capacity than it had previously assessed. The rating agency added that despite the “one country, two systems” policy underpinning Hong Kong’s autonomy for the past two decades, the lack of clarity on how the government is tackling the political and economic issues as highlighted by the protests also suggests more significant constraints on the autonomy of the city’s institutions than previously thought.

Many of China's provinces cut 2020 GDP growth targets despite easing trade tension -  (Reuters) - About two-thirds of China’s provinces, regions and municipalities have cut their 2020 growth targets from last year, despite easing trade tensions with the United States. The lower regional targets reinforce expectations of a further slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy, after gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at its slowest pace in nearly three decades in 2019, weighed down by weak domestic and global demand. Of China’s provincial-level regions, 22 including Beijing, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Henan, Hainan, and Fujian, set lower growth targets this year compared to last, a similar number to last year. Beijing, Shanghai, and the southern export hub of Guangdong all dropped their targets from 6-6.5% growth to “around 6%” in 2020, in line with the expected change to the national target. This year is seen as crucial for the ruling Communist Party to fulfill its goal of doubling GDP and incomes in the decade to 2020. At least 11 provincial-level regions missed their 2019 GDP targets, according to preliminary statistics released by local governments. Targets for 2020 ranged from around 5% growth - for the northeastern province of Heilongjiang and the northern city of Tianjin - to around 9% growth for the Tibet Autonomous Region. Policy sources have told Reuters that Beijing plans to set a lower national growth target of around 6% this year from last year’s 6-6.5%, relying on increased infrastructure spending to ward off a sharper slowdown.

China: Bungee-jumping pig stunt by theme park causes outrage  -A Chinese theme park has defended its decision to inaugurate a new bungee jumping attraction by pushing a live pig off a tower.Chinese media reported that the 75kg (165lb) hog was hauled by four men to the top of a metal stairway, then tied up in a harness and hurled off a platform 70 meters (230 feet) high. China's Global Times said video footage of the event on Saturday showed the pig lying seemingly unconscious on the floor after being freed from the bungee cord after the jump. The paper reported that people were heard cheering and laughing as the animal hurtled towards the ground.  Chinese social media users, on the other hand, were less than impressed with some calling for the owner of the theme park to be the ride's guinea pig, instead. "To tie up its boss and throw him down would be much more entertaining," one user said on Weibo. Another wrote: "It was miserable for the animal! It's a disgusting marketing idea to attract attention by abusing a pig!" "It's not funny at all. It just shows what human beings can do when they get bored," wrote a third user. The owner of the Meixin Red Wine Town theme park, near Chongqing Municipality, was cited by China's The Cover news site as saying: "We let the pig make the first jump because pork prices have been very high this year and recently they dropped a bit." A public relations officer was cited by the South China Morning Post as saying that the stunt was "just a bit of entertainment," and that the animal was going to be slaughtered for a Lunar New Year banquet anyway. China has no laws on animal rights, and the ill-treatment of animals by the public is not unusual for sport and tourism purposes.

Vietnam's battalions of 'cyber-armies' silencing online dissent - Wearing his trademark black fedora, human rights defender Anh Chi updates his YouTube audience on the situation in Dong Tam village, 40km (25 miles) southwest of Vietnam's capital, Hanoi, the site of a recent deadly dispute over land. Anh Chi is among the few social media-savvy activists, who are trying to push the boundaries of delivering news and analysis straight to the Vietnamese public. But these days, their voices are increasingly becoming muted due to government restrictions. The deadly January 9 incident in Dong Tam is a case in point. According to the authorities, three police officers and 84-year-old village leader Le Dinh Kinh were killed after local residents clashed with police in the early hours of that day. The dispute, over agricultural land next to a military airport, shocked the country. But afterwards, Vietnam's cyber-army, also known as Force 47, was deployed to counter the content on social media platforms deemed critical of the way the authorities handled the situation. The authorities also arrested three activists over posts made in relation to the dispute, while Facebook users faced restrictions. "The Vietnamese government's heavy-handed efforts to censor discussion of this land dispute are the latest example of its campaign to assert control over online content," Nicholas Bequelin, Amnesty International's regional director, said in a statement. "Social media, particularly Facebook, is increasingly becoming weaponised by Vietnam to go after those who peacefully speak their mind. This is an unacceptable attack on freedom of expression and a clear attempt to stamp out dissent." Vietnam's Force 47 is run by the Ministry of Public Security (MPS) to hack anti-government websites and spread pro-government messages online, and is believed to be at least 10,000-strong. Anh Chi, the pen name of 46-year-old Nguyen Chi Tuyen, knows the ministry's tactics well. He has created videos criticising Force 47, and has expressed concern about the impact of a new cyber-law that came into effect at the beginning of the month. "I strongly oppose the many articles in it that violate freedom of speech, freedom of expression, and basic human rights," he said.

Jeff Bezos’ Not So Excellent Indian Adventure: Modi Government Disses Inept Amazon - Jeff Bezos visited India last week, bearing the gift of of an Amazon offer to invest one billion dollars and create jobs to an India that faces its worst economic prospects  — slowing growth, rising unemployment, moribund investment – in at least twenty years.He didn’t receive a fawning reception. The day before he arrived, the Competition Commission of India initiated an investigation into Amazon, for alleged violations of competition law, as reported by livemint  in, Amazon, Flipkart to be probed for abuse of competition law The Competition Commission of India (CCI) on Monday ordered a probe into alleged competition law violations by Amazon and Walmart-owned Flipkart over allegations that the e-commerce majors promoted and gave discounts to “preferred” sellers, entered into exclusive partnerships with smartphone brands and abused their dominant position. CCI noted four alleged practices on both the marketplaces—exclusive launch of mobile phones, preferred sellers on the platforms, deep discounting and preferential promotion of private labels.The antitrust body said such exclusive arrangements between smartphone or mobile phone brands and e-commerce platforms or select companies selling exclusively on either of the platforms merit an investigation.“It needs to be investigated whether the alleged exclusive arrangements, deep-discounting and preferential listing by the OPs (opposite parties) are being used as an exclusionary tactic to foreclose competition and are resulting in an appreciable adverse effect on competition contravening the provisions of Section 3 (1) read with Section 3(4) of the Act,” the CCI order stated. Bezos’ visit was his first to India in five years, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi declined to meet with him – even though last month,  Amazon requested such a meeting. Other senior ministers followed Modi’s lead and also said no to meeting with Bezos, according to The Print in Why no one in Modi govt met Amazon’s Jeff Bezos this time and instead rudely snubbed him: Amazon Inc. chief executive Jeff Bezos may have announced his e-commerce giant’s massive investment plans for India but that has not stopped the Narendra Modi government from giving him a cold shoulder, in a rare instance of the regime not welcoming a foreign investor. Bezos, who is on a three-day visit to India, had sought meetings with top government leaders but the appointments were not given, sources told ThePrint.

Why Modi’s Thugs Attacked My University - On January 5, masked men and women stormed the New Delhi campus of Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), where I am a professor, and attacked the students and faculty they found there with sticks, iron rods, and scythes. The university administration, security guards, and local police not only failed to protect the innocent victims of this rampage, which included vandalism and trespassing, in addition to the violence; they watched and were complicit in the assault. This is Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s India. JNU is a highly respected institution. But with India’s leadership promoting an aggressive form of Hindu nationalism – including by enacting the blatantly unconstitutional Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), which has rendered millions of Muslim Indians stateless – the university has come to represent the enemy: the liberalism and tolerance that is supposed to underpin Indian democracy.This is not an accident, the result of some small group of zealots misinterpreting the Modi government’s message. On the contrary, Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party has been actively cultivating this narrative for a long time, and, since coming to power in 2014, the BJP’s government has been using pliant media to vilify universities, especially those like JNU whose faculty and students have criticized the ruling dispensation.In fact, just one week before the attack on JNU, Indian Home Affairs Minister Amit Shah called for those behind public protests against the CAA to be “taught a lesson.” With that, he effectively announced open season on minorities and anyone who defends them, and confirmed that Hindu-chauvinist “hunters” have the implicit support of the highest levels of government. He has also linked these protests with ongoing demonstrations at JNU, where students have been resisting an arbitrary fee hike that would force many of them to abandon their studies.During the attack on JNU, security guards and police allowed the aggressors in, turned off streets lights to enable their violence and vandalism, and stopped anyone, including media, from entering or leaving the campus. Faculty close to the JNU administration and members of the BJP’s student wing helped to co-ordinate the armed goons. They then stood by while the goons, hollering Hindu-nationalist battle cries such as “Hail Lord Ram,” carried out their violence, often targeting – and, in some cases, severely injuring – women, including the president of the students’ union and some faculty members. Only after several hours of terror did the police escort these vicious thugs from our ravaged campus. Conveniently, they find that CCTV evidence is lacking, and have refused to register complaints filed by teachers and students. The police now claim that they have identified some students – including some of the most injured – as attackers and have already filed cases against them.

What Happened to India? - It’s a question I hear increasingly these days. International news media report on repression in Kashmir, mounting Hindu chauvinism, widespread protests against new laws, assaults on women, and more. The India the world once celebrated – the world’s fastest-growing free-market liberal democracy – seems to be giving way to a violent, intolerant, illiberal autocracy. The reports are true, and the picture they paint is not a pretty one. But India’s well-wishers should not give up on the country. The democratic opposition is fighting back, buoyed by the support of young people protesting spontaneously, and not at the behest of any political party, against the excesses of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government. India’s current predicament is the culmination of three decades of evolving trends in Indian politics. Eight stand out. First, there have been the social consequences of deepening democracy. Viewed by many observers as a fragile transplant at independence in 1947, democracy has become deeply entrenched, empowering previously marginalized castes and communities. Thanks to the implementation of the Mandal Commission proposal in 1989 to provide “reservations,” or quotas, in government jobs, universities, and the like to the “Other Backward Classes” (such set-asides already existed for Dalits, once outcastes, and tribals, India’s aboriginal people), the former underclass has become a potent political force. Second, there has been a backlash against cultural globalization. India, like Turkey and the United States, has witnessed growing resentment of cosmopolitan secular elites, with their Westernized lifestyles and perception of themselves as global citizens. Indian social conservatism shuddered at the breakdown of social and sexual mores, depicted in films and television shows. Traditionalists recoiled at women going to work, dressed in jeans and other non-Indian clothing, returning home late at night after shifts in call centers attuned to Western business hours, freed from the bonds and the bounds of local social custom. Third, there has been a revolt against the political insider class. The denizens of “Lutyens’ Delhi,” shorthand for the government enclave in the heart of the capital where the high and mighty lived, were seen by their challengers as corrupt, complacent, inefficient, and resistant to change.  The protesters’ demand that the country be cleansed of its corrupted ruling class contributed significantly to Modi’s victory in 2014.

Big Brother Australia aims to ban cash spending - Australia’s revenue chiefs are bidding to ban large cash payments to hobble drug dealers and other criminal syndicates, but critics see a more sinister agenda that will allow banks and bureaucrats to manipulate ordinary citizens’ spending habits. A bill outlawing cash transactions of A$10,000 (US$6,900) or more has been passed by the lower house of parliament and is now being considered by the Senate. Anyone caught breaking the law could be jailed for two years if the legislation becomes law. Assistant Treasurer Michael Sukkar says the legislation, expected to be enacted in February, is aimed at criminal gangs that make cash purchases of cars, houses and jewelry to launder their profits from illegal activities. “As cash is largely untraceable, this makes it difficult for law enforcement agencies to trace these activities,” he said, according to media reports. “The government is sending a strong message to the community that using cash to avoid obligations and potentially engage in criminal activity is a serious matter that requires a sufficient level of deterrence.” Drug dealers are the main target of the legislation. The Reserve Bank has calculated that they have as much as A$1 billion ($690 million) of cash stashed away at any one time for use in transactions, or 1% of all the notes in circulation. Australians spend an estimated A$13.5 billion ($9.3 billion) on illicit drugs each year, according to the Australian Criminal Intelligence Commission, with methamphetamines accounting for about 50% of the value. The narcotics trade is part of a black economy worth as much as A$6 billion (US$4.1 billion), equivalent to 3% of gross domestic product (GDP), that has two components: people concealing legal activities to avoid paying tax and those involved in illegal practices who want to avoid detection. Both will be pursued under the planned cash law, which will require banks and businesses to report any amounts of A$10,000 or more but still allow private deals involving two parties, such as the sale of an automobile.

IMF Chief Warns Global Economy Faces New Great Depression - The new head of the IMF, who took over from Christine Lagarde in November, warned that the global economy could soon find itself mired in a great depression. During a speech at the Peterson Institute, IMF Chairwoman Kristalina Georgieva compared the contemporary global to the "roaring 20s" of the 20th century, a decade of cultural and financial excess that culminated in the great market crash of 1929. According to the Guardian, this research suggests that a similar trend is already under way, and though the collapse might not be around the corner, when it comes, it will be impossible to avoid. While the inequality gap between countries has closed over the last two decades, the gap within most developed countries has widened, leaving millions more vulnerable to a global downturn than they otherwise would have been. In particular, she singled out the UK for criticism: "In the UK, for example, the top 10% now control nearly as much wealth as the bottom 50%. This situation is mirrored across much of the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), where income and wealth inequality have reached, or are near, record highs." She also warned about the potential for climate change to become a bigger obstacle for humanity, while increased trade protectionism instills more volatility in markets. 

 Baltic Dry Continues Epic Plunge As IMF Slashes Global GDP Forecast -The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index hit a nine-month low on Monday, dragged down by falling rates of capesize and panamax segments as world trade continues to slump. The Baltic Dry Index, which tracks rates for capesize, panamax and supramax vessels that ferry dry bulk commodities across the world, dropped 25 points, or 3.3%, to 729 (according to Refinitiv data), the lowest level since April 2019:

• The capesize index .BACI dropped 119 points, or 16.7%, to 593 - its lowest since April 23.The index registered its 27th straight session of losses, and also its largest daily percentage loss since early April.
• Average daily earnings for capesizes, which typically transport 170,000-180,000 tonne cargoes including iron ore and coal, fell $592 to $7,760.
• The panamax index .BPNI lost 4 points, or 0.5%, to 866.
• Average daily earnings for panamaxes, which usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 tonnes to 70,000 tonnes, declined $39 to $7,791.
• The supramax index .BSIS remained unchanged at 560 points.

Baltic Dry Index Falls 3.32% to 729 in London
•Capesize -7.09% to $7,760
•Panamax -0.6% to $6,455
•Supramax 58k tons 0.0% to $6,156
•Handysize -0.47% to $4,836  #DryBulk #Shipping $GOGL $SBLK $GNK $DSX $SB $SALT $EGLE $GBLK pic.twitter.com/zlaZxm5Fsj — Joakim Hannisdahl (@JHannisdahl) January 20, 2020

Economy Failed To Pick Up But European PMIs Suggest Signs Of Stabilization - European business activity failed to ignite growth momentum to the upside at the start of 2020 – despite regional equities ramping to near all-time-highs with the expectation of V-shape growth. Services, which buoyed the broader economy from tilting into a recession, are beginning to weaken as a manufacturing recession continues to drag on the overall economy.IHS Markit’s Euro Zone Composite Flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was unchanged at 50.9 in January, missing expectations of 51.2 – suggesting growth momentum to the upside is still missing. “While the year may have changed, the performance of the eurozone economy was a familiar one in January. Output growth was unchanged from the modest pace seen in December, signaling that the economy failed again to record a pick-up in growth momentum,” said Andrew Harker, associate director at IHS Markit. The service sector slowed at the start of the year, indicating the continued contraction in manufacturing production could be transmitting weakness into consumers. The manufacturing PMI has been stuck in a contraction for 12 months, printing at 47.8, a slight improvement from December’s 46.3 – a sign of stabilization but nothing to cheer about at the moment.The Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Output Index increased to 47.5 from 46.1, the highest since August.Signs of stabilization at the start of the year are visible in Europe but far from the expectations of a V-shape recovery that regional equity markets priced in over the last four months. Confidence among European business leaders has marginally improved as central banks across the world slash interest rates 80 times over the previous 12 months and print more than $1 trillion in the last quarter – with the hopes of troughing the global economy and unleashing a V-shape recovery.

The No. 1 ‘happiest country’ in the world also has one of the highest suicide rates — economists have a theory why - Finland was No. 1 out of 156 countries on the 2019 “World Happiness Report,” followed by Denmark, Norway, Iceland, the Netherlands and Switzerland. The U.S. trailed at No. 19. The top countries ranked highly on all the main factors found to support happiness: caring, freedom, generosity, honesty, health, income and good governance. “Governments set the institutional and policy framework in which individuals, businesses and governments themselves operate,” the authors wrote.  The “World Happiness Report” polled 1,000 residents per country by research organization Gallup. Finland also ranks at the top of the Organization for Economic Cooperation’s “Better Life Index” in education, skills, subjective well-being, and it ranks above average for income and wealth, jobs and earnings, health status, environmental quality, personal security, social connections, housing and work-life balance but below in civic engagement. They rate their general life satisfaction 7.6 out of 10, considerably higher than the OECD average of 6.5, the Paris-based research body said. Finland has a highly educated population. Some 1.7 million adults, or approximately 60% of the adult population, participate in adult education every year. Some 70% of people aged 15 to 64 have a paid job, above the OECD employment average of 68%. “In Finland, 88% of adults aged 25-64 have completed upper secondary education, higher than the OECD average of 78%,” it said. Life expectancy at birth is almost 82 years, two years higher than the OECD average of 80 years. However, the OECD said the average annual household net-adjusted disposable income per capita is $29,943, which is lower than the OECD average of $33 604. The top 20% of the population in Finland earn almost four times as much as the bottom 20%, but the inequality gap is still significantly lower than other EU countries. Finland, which has long dark winters, also has one of the highest suicide rates in the world (11.6 per 100,000 people versus 10.1 in the U.S.). “There is growing evidence from around the world that prime-age adults are struggling, and especially so if they have low levels of education,” Dartmouth College economist David Blanchflower wrote in a study released Monday. “This is particularly apparent in the United States that has seen a rapid rise in deaths of despair, principally down to drug poisonings and suicide.” Blanchflower looked at 41 countries using multiple data sets to show how unhappiness reaches a peak in midlife. What he found was similar across all countries: people were at their lowest ebb when they hit 50.“Many people are hurting,” he wrote. “All of this is happening with unemployment rates at historic lows in many countries with rates below 4%, including the Czech Republic (2.2%), Germany (3.1%), Hungary (3.5%), Israel (3.4%), Japan (2.4%); Malta (3.4%); Iceland (3.5%); Mexico (3.6%); the Netherlands (3.5%), Norway (3.9%), Poland (3.2%), South Korea (3.5%), U.S. (3.5%) and U.K. (3.8%).”

Brexit: Digging In -- Yves Smith -  Boris Johnson and more recently his Chancellor Sajid Javid have taken to making aggressive statements about the timing and content of a trade deal with the EU. This might normally be taken as posturing but the positions are so extreme as to be clearly delusional. As we’ll discuss, Javid staked out a very hard Brexit position last Friday and told UK businesses to pound sand. EU sources also reacted as if they didn’t see this coming.  One of the thing Johnson had been famous for, prior to his successful go for No. 10, is not sticking to his positions. But that changed as Johnson hitched his No. 10 star to Brexit. Admittedly, Johnson gave his “rather die in a ditch” blather about leaving on October 31, and then quietly swallowed an extension, He has been adamant that the UK is leaving the EU at the end of 2020, renouncing the option of taking a one or two year extension, to the degree that EU officials, who earlier saw this as more bluster, now accept that deadline as a planning assumption. Mind you, Johnson has taken that stance even though the best he could achieve in that time period is a very bare bones trade deal, and no services deal. And even that is unlikely; both Michel Barnier and Ursula von der Leyen have warned that it isn’t possible to come to terms on all areas in 11 months and the EU will set its priorities.  Johnson also acts as if getting a trade deal with the US would be some sort of masterstroke. In reality, as regular readers no doubt recognize, the US can do trade deals quickly because it dictates terms, meaning any agreement would be skewed to the UK’s disadvantage, and probably even more so due to US negotiators exploiting both political and timing pressures on the UK end to stitch something up. And as Chris Grey pointed out:  The geographic closeness of the EU and the volume of UK trade that results from that, as well as from decades of EU membership, makes a EU trade deal massively more important than any Free Trade Agreement with the US could ever be.  More pointedly, I can see the US wanting to sell more agricultural goods to the UK. No way will the US want to buy more auto or aircraft parts from the UK. Ditto financial services. Brexit hasn’t been going well for the UK so far, although you’d never know that from the chest-thumping of the pro-Tory press.A Bloomberg analysis finds the UK economy will have taken a 3% hit due to Brexit: Research by Bloomberg Economics estimates that the economic cost of Brexit has already hit 130 billion pounds ($170 billion), with a further 70 billion pounds set to be added by the end of this year. That’s based on the damage caused by the U.K. untethering from its Group of Seven peers over the past three years. Business Insider cheekily pointed out that this hit is on its way to exceed total EU dues paid by the UK: In an interview with the Financial Times last Friday, Javid took an aggressive form of the position that the UK would not be a rule-taker. Erm, this is tantamount to putting a gun to the head of the UK’s export sectors, since other countries won’t let in non-complaint goods. This will also subject UK businesses that enjoyed frictionless trade with the EU to facing the significant non-tariff trade barrier of new compliance and documentation requirements.

Brexit: Boris Johnson suffers triple defeat in Lords as peers vote against plans to allow lower courts to overrule EU law Boris Johnson has suffered three consecutive defeats in the House of Lords in a matter of hours, with the latest over plans to allow British judges at lower courts to overturn European Court of Justice rulings after Brexit. It comes after concerns were aired over the prime minister’s plan to rip up Theresa May’s previous commitment to transfer all EU law onto the domestic statue book, which meant it could only be overturned by the Supreme Court, or the High Court of Justiciary in Scotland. Instead, Mr Johnson added a new clause into the Withdrawal Agreement Bill following his decisive general election victory, to allow ministers the power to direct the courts on interpretation of EU law and to allow lower courts the power to overturn rulings of the ECJ. Peers voted 241 – 205 on Monday evening, however, for a cross-party amendment to delete the powers from the bill, amid warnings of it being an interference in the independence of the judiciary. Last week, members of the Lords Constitution Committee, which includes Tory peers, said the government’s plan raised “substantial constitutional concerns” and said it was “not appropriate” for courts other than the Supreme Court or the Scottish High Court of Justiciary to have the power to depart from EU law. “Allowing lower courts to reinterpret EU case law risks causing significant legal uncertainty that would be damaging to individuals and companies,” they added. “We cannot see the case for such broad and constitutionally significant regulation-making powers, and are not convinced by the rationale offered by the government.” A third blow came moments later as the upper chamber also passed an amendment to allow cases to be referred to the Supreme Court to decide whether to depart from EU case law.

Brexit: a matter of economics  -Interestingly, The Times has weighed in on the "chlorinated chicken" controversy, arguing that a ban on produce from the United States for that reason would be "unwise and unscientific". Whether a ban would be "unscientific" is actually arguable, but the differences in production regimes as between the US and the UK (under EU law) certainly reflect differences in regulatory philosophieswhich cannot be easily dismissed.Another factor which must be taken into account is the effect accepting US produce would have on UK enterprises which export processed foods containing chicken to EU Member States. Post Brexit, those companies have to produce documentary evidence certifying that the chickens are reared and processed in accordance with EU law, which will add costs to the export process. Additionally, they might also have to give specific assurances that their goods are US produce-free, even to the extent of having to run dedicated production lines where raw material sources are restricted and controlled. That, in turn, will add to costs and make our products that much more uncompetitive. But, when it comes to costs, one wonders whether The Times, with its new-found enthusiasm for American chicken, has actually looked at current prices on each side of the Atlantic. Average retail prices for whole chicken in US cities (converted to sterling) stands at £2.45/kilo. On the other hand, a visit to Tesco over here will procure the same goods for £2.11/kilo while Sainsbury's will set you back £2.05. For the US produce to reach the UK, there will be the small matter of shipping costs, which means that – on current price levels – there is no competitive advantage for American poultry.  It might be argued, however, that the US will mainly service the processing industry, but that has the problems I've already identified. And, for goods such as chicken soup and pies, the industry tends to use spent hens (laying birds which no longer produce eggs). Prices in the last few years have been low, down to 15p per bird, although I have known them as low as 5p. The United States could not possibly compete in this sector, especially as The Times tells us we also process spent hens from Ireland.

So much for England - Tariq Al - There’s​ no point being tribal now. Let’s face it: Johnson won the election because the Tories pledged to implement the result of the 2016 referendum without any more shilly-shallying. Democracy matters. Labour’s rejection of the referendum outcome at its bubble party conference last September did them in. John McDonnell was right to take the blame for the defeat. His insistence on a second referendum was a huge strategic blunder. Johnson’s first speech as prime minister, delivered to the cameras outside Downing Street, was lucid and effective. This was not the knockabout party-political busker, who didn’t care whether what came out of his mouth was true or not. He will revert to that when things get tougher. (The exchanges in Parliament after Soleimani’s assassination are a case in point.) He often sounds like a character in a comic novel. His own. Roger Barlow in Seventy-Two Virgins is a self-portrait that reveals a surprising degree of self-awareness: Barlow’s thoughts of political extinction had taken a philosophical turn. Did it matter? Of course not. The fate of the human race was hardly affected ... In the great scheme of things his extermination was about as important as the accidental squashing of a snail. The trouble was that until the happy day when he was reincarnated as a louse or a baked bean, he didn’t know how he was going to explain the idiotic behaviour of his brief human avatar. On that first day outside Downing Street it was clear that Johnson’s fears of ‘political extinction’ had been laid to rest, at least temporarily. Watching the Leninist Boris in action, I feared that, regardless of when the next election was held, Labour would lose it. I never thought this one would be such a crushing defeat, but while Labour’s losses should not be underplayed, it’s worth remembering that the party’s share of the vote was lower under Gordon Brown in 2010 and Ed Miliband in 2015. In terms of seats and numbers, the Conservatives did worse in both 1997 and 2001. The liberal commentariat that was hoping that the Lib Dems would replace Labour as the main party of opposition must be even more disappointed than Labour supporters. There is a counter-narrative. A few blowhards still insist that had Labour come out as a hardcore Remainer outfit, things might have been different. This is nonsense. What more could Labour have done? It had already linked arms in Parliament with the Remainer coalition of Tories who’d had the whip withdrawn, remainiacal Lib Dems, and Scottish and Welsh nationalists, with McDonnell even offering a warm welcome to the DUP if they changed sides. These parliamentary manoeuvrings failed since Jo Swinson refused any deal with Labour under Corbyn because he wasn’t prepared to press the nuclear button and was therefore a security risk. The country was spared a coalition that would have further discredited Labour.

The EU’s Brexit ‘sanctions’ threat shows the UK should not expect them or the US to be friendly over trade -  Everyone seems to be assuming that the UK and EU will swiftly come to a simple free trade agreement by the end of the year – no tariffs, no quotas, no dumping (exporting of products at lower than normal value).   It is difficult to believe it might to happen – but there may be some complications. No less a figure than Stefaan De Rynck has warned as much. Not many of us are familiar with this recherché Eurocrat, but he is the senior adviser to Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator and someone the British have reason to be fearful of. Mr De Rynck talks airily of unspecified “sanctions” that the EU can impose on Britain if the British fail to live up their obligations under the Withdrawal Agreement or the new UK-EU trade and security treaty (assuming there is one). For example there will be no “backsliding” on the border controls between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, the basis of the UK-EU Withdrawal Agreement shortly to be ratified by parliament. I always got the impression that Boris Johnson was never really sincere about these, and might well find some way to just ignore or neglect them, and the EU would either pretend not to notice or wouldn’t anyhow care. Johnson as, after all, denied that such checks are even needed, and they will be, nominally, operated on British territory and therefore easily amendable by the British authorities. Perfidious Albion?The smart Mr De Rynck is aware of this danger, and has already raised it publicly – and the EU’s intolerance of such backsliding. His ultimate boss, EU Commission President Ursula von der Weyen has said as much too, albeit more diplomatically. The same EU vigilance will be exercised over the rights of EU citizens in the UK, post-Brexit, if, say, they fail to meet the deadline for registration. The same also goes for various other attempts by the British to diverge from EU standards on workers’ rights, the environment and so on. What would be even worse is a simultaneous trade war with America. This is not as far-fetched as it sounds, because it is already close to breaking out. The British have shown their usual plucky defiance and declared that they will be pressing ahead with the digital tax – on American champions such as Amazon, Google and Apple. The Americans have expressed their displeasure and willingness to slap punitive import taxes on British car exports. The British have also said that they will not allow chlorinated chicken or genetically modified food into the UK – but again the US regards such practises as unfair, discriminatory and intolerable. Nor is the NHS “for sale”, apparently. There’s not much in it for Washington, is there?