FOMC Minutes: Policy on Hold - From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 28-29, 2020. A few excerpts: Participants generally saw the distribution of risks to the outlook for economic activity as somewhat more favorable than at the previous meeting, although a number of downside risks remained prominent. The easing of trade tensions resulting from the recent agreement with China and the passage of the USMCA as well as tentative signs of stabilization in global economic growth helped reduce downside risks and appeared to buoy business sentiment. The risk of a "hard" Brexit had appeared to recede further. In addition, statistical models designed to estimate the probability of recession using financial market data suggested that the likelihood of a recession occurring over the next year had fallen notably in recent months. Still, participants generally expected trade-related uncertainty to remain somewhat elevated, and they were mindful of the possibility that the tentative signs of stabilization in global growth could fade. Geopolitical risks, especially in connection with the Middle East, remained. The threat of the coronavirus, in addition to its human toll, had emerged as a new risk to the global growth outlook, which participants agreed warranted close watching. ... In their consideration of monetary policy at this meeting, participants judged that it would be appropriate to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent to support sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation returning to the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective. With regard to monetary policy beyond this meeting, participants viewed the current stance of policy as likely to remain appropriate for a time, provided that incoming information about the economy remained broadly consistent with this economic outlook. In commenting on the monetary policy outlook, participants concurred that maintaining the current stance of policy would give the Committee time for a fuller assessment of the ongoing effects on economic activity of last year's shift to a more accommodative policy stance and would also allow policymakers to accumulate further information bearing on the economic outlook. Participants discussed how maintaining the current policy stance for a time could be helpful in supporting U.S. economic activity and employment in the face of global developments that have been weighing on spending decisions.
Fed Slashes 14-Day Repo Loans to $25 Billion; Will Cut Further in March - Pam Martens - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell sat through two days of grueling hearings before the House Financial Services Committee and Senate Banking Committee last week. At numerous times, the Fed and Powell were portrayed by Congressional members as sugar daddies for Wall Street while aloof to the financial suffering of the average American. (See Fed Chair Tells Congress There Is a 10-Year “Game Plan” to Deal with Financial Crisis But No Plan to Deal with Americans Left Devastated By It.) The House Financial Services Committee held its hearing on Tuesday. The Senate Banking Committee held its hearing on Wednesday. On Thursday, in a surprise move, the Fed announced that it would be trimming the $30 billion it has been making in 14-day loans (at about 1.60 percent interest) to Wall Street’s trading houses to $25 billion through March 12 and trimming that amount even further to $20 billion beginning on March 17. The 14-day loans are made twice a week, typically on Tuesday and Thursday, and are in addition to the daily 1-day loans the Fed has been making every business day to trading houses on Wall Street since September 17 of last year. The 1-day loans currently have a cap of $100 billion per day. This morning’s money funnel by the Fed to Wall Street totaled $78.55 billion. It consisted of $53.55 billion in a 1-day loan and $25 billion in the 14-day loan. It’s not a good sign that the 14-day loan was oversubscribed by $14.9 billion. The demand for more 14-day money than the Fed is willing to supply has been happening regularly of late.
Much Ado About Nothing-- Frances Coppola - The Fed's interventions in the repo market are attracting considerable comment. A lot of people seem to think the Fed has embarked on another QE program without Congressional approval. And the usual suspects are complaining that the Fed is pumping up stock prices and debasing the dollar. Stocks are indeed heading for the moon - though so is the dollar, which rather undermines those who think it is being debauched. But the Fed's interventions in the repo markets have nothing to do with stock prices. They are all about banks. Last September, sudden spikes in the Fed Funds Rate (FFR) and its repo market equivalent, the Secured Overnight Funding Rate (SOFR), caught the Fed off guard. It acted quickly, injecting copious quantities of reserves to bring the rates down. But this was by any standards a seat-of-the-pants operation. The Fed simply hadn't expected banks to run out of reserves. After all, despite the Fed's balance sheet reduction, total reserves were still far more than banks needed to meet reserve requirements. There should have been ample reserves in the system for banks to draw on when settling sudden large payments. But for some reason, there weren't. When banks are facing enormous payment demands, they won't do anything that reduces their reserves. So when corporations started making their quarterly tax payments, banks simply stopped lending excess reserves to each other. And because cash lending to non-banks causes reserve outflows, they stopped that too. But quarterly tax payments happen, er, every quarter. Why was September different? Well, it wasn't. But the Fed made an error of judgement. It assumed that the big banks would continue to act as dealers of last resort in the repo market even when the reserves on which they depend for liquidity were being drained by Fed balance sheet run-off, overnight reverse repos and - above all - Treasury debt issuance to finance the growing US budget deficit. But banks' primary duty is to their customers and shareholders, not to the Fed. If market liquidity becomes stressed, banks will protect themselves. Rather than lending more cash to maintain market liquidity, they will stop lending and hoard reserves, thus making the market liquidity problem worse.After the September spikes, the Fed continued to inject liquidity into the repo market by means of intermittent asset purchases. In December, Zoltan Poszar at Credit Suisse predicted that the Fed would have to start QE to prevent the repo market freezing at year end. This was incendiary. But the Fed's liquidity injections are not like QE. They are more like the open market operations (OMOs) that the Fed used to do before the financial crisis, though on a much larger scale, because the repo market is much larger than the pre-crisis Fed Funds market and not restricted to banks.
Fed's Bullard Fumbles After Being Asked “How A Quarter-Point Rate-Cut Will Cure The Flu?” - St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard was guest host on CNBC's Squawk Box this morning. Soon after sitting down, the indomitable Steve Liesman stunned everyone in the room when he dared to ask the all-knowing Bullard a simple question: "How would a quarter-point rate-cut 'cure the flu'?" Bullard's reaction was priceless....and in his fumbling and mumbling and lack of answer, he gave away everything..."...well, you know, you get a cold and you maybe drink more orange juice than you would otherwise... does that cure the cold? Probably not...but it treats some of the symptoms... so I think it might help a little bit." Fwd to around 6:00 for the fun and games...
Q1 GDP Forecasts: 0.7% to 2.6% -- From Merrill Lynch: We are tracking 0.7% qoq saar for 1Q GDP and 2.0% for 4Q. [Feb 21 estimate] From Goldman Sachs: we raised our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by one tenth to +1.5%. [Feb 19 estimate] From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report: The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.0% for 2020:Q1. News from this week’s data increased the nowcast for 2020:Q1 by 0.6 percentage point. Positive surprises from regional survey and housing data drove most of the increase. [Feb 21 estimate]And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2020 is 2.6 percent on February 19, up from 2.4 percent on February 14. [Feb 19 estimate] CR Note: These early estimates suggest real GDP growth will be between 0.7% and 2.6% annualized in Q1.
Explaining the Administration’s Economic Forecast - Menzie Chinn - The Economic Report of the President, 2020 is out as of today. Chapter 9 presents the underpinnings for theseemingly implausible GDP forecast presented in the Budget last week — a forecast that’s a full percentage point faster than CBO’s. Source: Economic Report of the President, 2020. This figure highlights the fact that the out-year forecasts are driven by implementation of deregulatory initiatives and trade liberalization. From page 297: we have decomposed this forecast into a current-law baseline and intermediate and top lines that reflect estimated growth effects discussed in this Report, as well as in the 2018 and 2019 Reports and the President’s Fiscal Year 2021 Budget. We then build up to our top-line, policy-inclusive forecast by successively adding to the current-law baseline the estimated effects of future deregulatory actions, immigration reform, additional labor market reforms to incentivize higher labor force participation, rendering the individual provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) permanent, additional fiscal policy proposals, including the Administration’s infrastructure plan, and improved trade deals with international trading partners. The top-line forecast constitutes the Administration’s official “Troika” forecast of the Council of Economic Advisers, Office of Management and Budget, and Department of Treasury. For comparison, we also report a pre-policy baseline consisting of the Congressional Budget Office’s 2019–27 projection made in August 2016, extended by its August 2019 current-law projection. So while Administration forecasts are always conditional on implementation of Administration proposals (and CBO projections are conditional on current law), this year the implications are larger because (1) the implementation of initiatives are so implausible (still waitin’ for that infrastructure bill), and (2) the implied effects — particularly attributed to deregulation — are so questionable. To reiterate, the Administration’s forecast looks implausible from the perspective of a naive time series model:
30-year Treasury bond yield breaks to all-time low as coronavirus fears lift havens - U.S. Treasury yields extended their weeklong slump on Friday as investors worried that the economic impact of COVID-19 may not be contained to China, and is spilling over into neighboring regions. The 10-year Treasury note yield fell 5.4 basis points to a more than five-month low of 1.470%, contributing to a weeklong decline of around 12 basis points. The 2-year note rate slipped 4.5 basis points to a three-week low of 1.348%, extending a 7.6 basis point drop this week. The 30-year bond yield tumbled 5.4 basis points to 1.917%, sliding below its previous all-time low of 1.95%. The long bond’s yield fell 12.6 basis point this week. Global equity benchmarks and U.S. stocks tumbled Friday as the growing number of cases of the coronavirus outside China, especially in South Korea, raised fears that the damage to supply chains could hit several major Asian economies which are linchpins for industries like semiconductors and automobiles. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are set to book a more than 1% loss this week. Investors also said it’s unclear when workers will be able to return to factory floors. Some forecasters suggest car manufacturing and other industries may not return to usual production activity until March.
China Dumped Most US Treasuries In 18 Months In December - Foreign central banks have sold US Treasuries for the last 16 months (the last inflow was Aug 2018). In fact, foreign central banks have only bought Treasurys in 6 in 63 months since Sept 2014. China was December's biggest seller, followed by Brazil, Luxembourg, and Canada. China has dumped Treasuries for 9 of the last 10 months with December's $19.3 bn sale the largest since July 2018... Source: Bloomberg. Japan remains the largest foreign holder with $1.15 trillion, having added $115.2 billion over the year, but even they sold in December... Overall, as Bloomberg notes, the pile of U.S. Treasuries held outside the country grew in 2019 to nearly $6.7 trillion from $6.3 trillion at the end of the previous year, as the government’s borrowing picked up to fresh record levels. Foreigners bought a net of $60.7BN in long-term securities in Dec:
- TSYs $41.1BN
- Agencies $15.9BN
- Corporate Bonds: -18.5BN
- Stocks $22.2BN (most since July)
Who Bought The $1.3 Trillion In Debt The US Government Added In 2019? - Authored by Wolf Richter via WolfStreet.com, The US Gross National Debt spiked by $1.3 trillion over the past 12 months, to $23.3 trillion. These days, trillions fly by so fast it’s hard to see them. But these are the good times. And we don’t even want to know what this will look like during the next economic downturn: And who the heck bought all this debt? This debt exists in form of Treasury securities, and each of these securities was bought by some entity in the US or in some other country. These entities fall into five broad categories: Foreign holders; the Fed; the US government via government pension funds and the Social Security Trust Fund; US commercial banks; and other US institutions, companies, and individuals. So here we go… In terms of foreign holders, the Treasury Department’s TIC data, released Tuesday afternoon, revealed how much of this debt was held, bought, or dumped by foreign investors through the end of December.All foreign investors combined – “foreign official” holders such as central banks and foreign private-sector investors of all stripes – dumped $83 billion in US Treasury securities in the month of December. But for the whole year of 2019, their holdings rose by $425 billion to $6.70 trillion. In other words, foreign entities bought 35% of the additional debt the US sold in 2019 (in a moment, we’ll get to who bought the other 65%). The share of foreign holdings fell to 28.9% from prior quarters but was nearly flat compared to a year earlier. The chart below shows the holdings at the end of each quarter, in trillion dollars (blue line, left scale) and as a percentage of total US debt (red line, right scale): Japan shed $6 billion of its Treasury holdings in December. But for all of 2019, it added $113 billion, bringing its holdings to $1.16 trillion (the peak was in 2014 at $1.24 trillion). China has been cutting its Treasury holdings every month since June. In December, it shed another $20 billion. Its total holdings are now down to $1.07 trillion, the lowest since peak-capital-flight in late 2016 and early 2017: The relative importance of Japan and China as creditors to the US has been declining for years, as the US debt has ballooned and as other creditors have stepped up. The share of Japan’s and China’s combined holdings fell to 9.6% of the total US debt: Most of the next 10 major holders are associated with tax havens and financial centers, including Belgium, home to Euroclear, which handles large amounts in fiduciary accounts. Mexico, which had the second-largest goods trade surplus ($102 billion) with the US in 2019, and Germany, which had the fourth-largest goods trade surplus with the US, do not rank here. Mexico is in 24th place and Germany in 20th place. This disproves the theory that countries that run a big trade surplus with the US have to hold large amounts of US debt. Here are the top 10 also-rans (in parenthesis, their Treasury holdings in December 2018):
Ups, downs and other major highlights from Trump’s 2021 budget request - Like previous years, President Donald Trump’s most recent budget request includes many familiar cuts, eliminations and proposals for civilian agencies in 2021. The president’s request includes some $20 billion in agency program reductions and $28 billion in program eliminations. It’s unclear how these proposed eliminations and cuts will fare in Congress, which has largely ignored them during previous years, but the president’s priorities for a few of the largest civilian agencies are undeniably clear. As in previous years, this time around Congress will likely turn a blind eye to many of these cuts and eliminations. But the White House request reflects the president’s priorities in his final year of his first term in office. The Department of Veterans Affairs was the big winner among civilian agencies, with VA submitting another record-high budget request for 2021. VA’s $105 billion request includes investments in both department and community care health programs, as well as a significant funding bump for its major electronic health records modernization program. The president also requested $94.2 billion in advanced VA appropriations for future years, most of which would fund the department’s community care programs. (infographic) Depending on the outcome of a reorganization proposal, the Department of Homeland Security may also see a relatively small budget boost in 2021. Notably, the president has proposed transferring the Secret Service from DHS back to the Treasury Department. The Secret Service had been a part of Treasury since its inception in 1865. Congress moved the agency in 2003 with the establishment of DHS. If the Secret Service does in fact move back to Treasury, DHS would see a 2% decrease from the previous year’s budget. But if the agency stays, DHS would experience a 3.2% budget increase. Several modernization initiatives are driving a budget boost at the IRS, which would receive $300 million to continue needed IT upgrades and several projects aimed at digitizing the agency’s interactions with taxpayers. In addition, the 2021 budget also proposes $15 billion in investments to improve IRS tax enforcement, which the White House estimated would generate $64 billion in net savings over 10 years.
US & China Lead Biggest Jump In World Defense Spending In 10 Years - New data from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) has shown a roughly 4% increase in military spending for 2019, the single largest rate of growth seen in the past 10 years. The increase is being driven in large part by the two largest military spenders in the world, the United States and China. Both nations increased their respective spending by 6.6%. The US alone increased spending $53.4 billion, which is itself almost as much as other major nations, like Britain, spend on their entire national defense budget. Since the US is by far the biggest single spender on the military, it makes sense that their increase would drive an increase worldwide. China, though a distant second, appears to be trying to keep up with America in increasing their spending. Still, the US spends nearly three times as much as China annually. Spending was also on the rise across Europe, up 4.2% from the previous year, and at the highest levels since before 2008. The NATO spending increases which are driving this are the result of US demands. In this regard, the impulse to keep spending on the US front probably is not so shared in NATO, with many of the big economies in Europe, particularly Germany, resistant to surge spending to meet US expectations, with the public in such nations preferring to focus on their economy.
Trump eyes riding arms sales to re-election - Donald Trump likes to posture as a tough guy and part of that tough-guy persona involves bragging about how much he’s spent on the US military. This tendency was on full display in a tweet he posted three days after an American drone killed Iranian Major-General Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad: “The United States just spent Two Trillion Dollars on Military Equipment. We are the biggest and by far the BEST in the World! If Iran attacks an American Base, or any American, we will be sending some of that brand new beautiful equipment their way … and without hesitation!” That tweet was as much a message to the American public as to Iran’s rulers. Its subtext: that Donald J Trump (and he alone) has restored the US military to greatness after two terms of neglect under the less-than-watchful eye of Barack Obama, that he’s not afraid to use it, and that he deserves credit for everything he’s done, which means, of course, widespread political support. Never mind that Washington has “only” spent about one-third of his claimed $2 trillion on military equipment since he took office and that Pentagon spending reached a post-World War II record high in the Obama years. No surprise there: Trump has never let the facts get in the way of a good story he’s dying to tell. He has, by the way, made similar claims to his most important audience of all: his donors. At a January 17 get-together with key supporters at Mar-a-Lago, his lavish Florida resort, he bragged that Pentagon spending had increased by $2.5 trillion on his watch. In fact, that figure is closer to total Pentagon spending in the Trump years. For his claim to be accurate, the Pentagon budget would have had to be $0 in January 2017 when he entered the Oval Office. Still, however outlandish what he says about the military may be, the underlying theme remains remarkably consistent: I’m the guy who’s funding our military like never before, so you should keep supporting me big-time.Donald Trump has indeed boosted the Pentagon budget to near-record levels. At $738 billion this year alone, it’s already substantially higher than US spending at the peaks of the Korean and Vietnam Wars or during president Ronald Reagan’s military buildup of the 1980s. It’s more than the total amount spent by the next seven nations in the world combined (five of which are US allies). Only Donald Trump could manage to distort, misstate, and exaggerate sums that are already beyond belief in the service of an inflated self-image and ambitious political objectives.
US-backed Saudi bombing kills at least 32 civilians in Yemen -Saudi airstrikes killed at least 32 civilians while wounding another dozen on Saturday, United Nations officials reported. This latest atrocity in the long list of war crimes by the US-backed Saudi-led forces in Yemen’s five-year-old war followed a rare shootdown of a Saudi Tornado jet aircraft Friday as it was carrying out combat operations over Yemen’s disputed northern province of Al-Jawf. The strike was described by Yemenis as a “revenge” attack for the downing of the plane. Those targeted included children who had gathered around the wreckage of the aircraft as well as families in nearby homes. Medical teams reported difficulty in reaching the wounded as Saudi jets continued to circle the area, threatening a “double tap” strike against first responders. Many of the wounded were in critical condition, and the death toll is expected to rise. The strike came amid a resurgence of fighting following a brief lull that was accompanied by an agreement on a prisoner swap between the Saudi-led forces and the Houthi rebels, who control Yemen’s most populous region in the country’s north, including the capital of Sanaa. Describing the latest bombing as “shocking,” Lise Grande, the United Nations’ humanitarian coordinator for Yemen, stated: “So many people are being killed in Yemen; it’s a tragedy, and it’s unjustifiable. Under international humanitarian law, parties which resort to force are obligated to protect civilians. Five years into this conflict, and belligerents are still failing to uphold this responsibility.” While the bombing is no doubt a vicious crime against humanity, it is, after five years of such crimes, hardly a shock. Since the war began in March 2015, when the Saudi monarchy intervened in an attempt to reimpose the unelected puppet government of President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi, an estimated 100,000 Yemenis have lost their lives and hundreds of thousands more have been wounded. Saudi bombings, including against homes, hospitals, schools, buses and weddings, are blamed for 67 percent of Yemen’s civilian casualties. The Saudi monarchy and its de facto head Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman have enjoyed complete impunity in carrying out the slaughter of the Yemeni people thanks to the unstinting support from Washington, initiated under the Democratic administration of Barack Obama and continued under the Republican Donald Trump. While the United Nations Security Council—where Washington wields a veto—has imposed sanctions against the Houthi rebels, it has approved not a single resolution condemning the wholesale killings carried out by Riyadh. The US, meanwhile, backs the war of aggression against Yemen with the sale of hundreds of billions of dollars in weaponry to Saudi Arabia, the provision of intelligence used in selecting targets, the training of pilots and the continuous resupply of bombs, missiles and other military hardware. Until November 2018, the US Air Force was providing aerial refueling of Saudi bombers so that they could carry out round-the-clock airstrikes.
'Hit with a truck' - How Iran's missiles inflicted brain injury on U.S. troops -Among the 2,000 troops stationed there was U.S. Army Specialist Kimo Keltz, who recalls hearing a missile whistling through the sky as he lay on the deck of a guard tower. The explosion lifted his body - in full armor - an inch or two off the floor. Keltz says he thought he had escaped with little more than a mild headache. Initial assessments around the base found no serious injuries or deaths from the attack. U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted, “All is well!” The next day was different. “My head kinda felt like I got hit with a truck,” Keltz told Reuters in an interview from al-Asad air base in Iraq’s western Anbar desert. “My stomach was grinding.” Keltz, who said he had concussion symptoms for days, is among 109 soldiers diagnosed with traumatic brain injuries in the wake of last month’s attack, a figure that has steadily risen as more troops report symptoms and get medical screening. Reuters interviewed more than a dozen officials and soldiers and spoke with brain-injury specialists to assemble the most comprehensive account so far of the nature of the soldiers’ injuries and how they sustained them. The slowly rising casualty count underscores the difficulty in detecting and treating what has become one of the most common injuries in the U.S. military during two decades of war in Afghanistan and Iraq, where U.S. troops face roadside bombs, rockets and mortars. More than a week after the attack, on Jan. 16, Defense Secretary Mark Esper was made aware that soldiers had suffered brain injuries from the missiles, the Pentagon said. That day, the Pentagon reported that an unspecified number of troops were treated for concussive symptoms and 11 were flown to Kuwait and Germany for higher-level care. On Jan. 22, Trump said that he “heard that they had headaches and a couple of other things,” prompting criticism from both Democratic and Republican lawmakers and a U.S. veterans group that the president was underplaying the casualties from the attack.
Ayatollah Tweets Wealthy Zionists Control America Amid Push To Get Him Banned From Twitter - Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has marked the latest national event commemorating the death of IRGC Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani by tweeting a deeply provocative statement asserting that “wealthy Zionists” control America. The United States has reached the “peak of arrogance,” and is controlled by “wealthy Zionists and their corporate owners,” which makes it a “manifestation of oppression, abhorred by the world,” he said further, as reported in The Jerusalem Post. The statement comes after the Islamic Republic's top cleric and head of the regime previously slammed Trump's Mideast peace plan “Deal of the Century” as “satanic” because it ultimately represents the “Jewishization” of Jerusalem and the suppression of Islamic identity. “To the dismay of US politicians, the satanic, evil US policy about Palestine — the so-called Deal Of The Century— will never bear fruit, by the grace of God,” Khamenei wrote on his official Twitter account in late January. Such inflammatory and religiously charged rhetoric will likely only fuel an ongoing initiative of hawkish Republican Senators to get Khamenei and other top Iranian leaders banned from Twitter and other US social media platforms. We are against the rule of oppression and arrogance. This is what we mean by “America.” Today, the peak of arrogance is the US, which is controlled by the wealthy Zionists & their corporate owners. The US is a manifestation of oppression. Thus, they’re abhorred by the world.— Khamenei.ir (@khamenei_ir) February 18, 2020 Earlier this month the group of Republicans including Ted Cruz (Tx.), Tom Cotton (Ark.) Marsha Blackburn (Tenn.) and Marco Rubio (Fla.) wrote in the letter to Twitter: "While the First Amendment protects the free speech rights of Americans — and Twitter should not be censoring the political speech of Americans — the Ayatollah enjoys zero protection from the United States Bill of Rights."
US Will No Longer Tolerate Russia's “Non-Compliance” Of Open Skies Treaty- Esper - US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper has slammed Russia's longtime "non-compliance" to the Open Skies treaty, months after the Trump administration expressed a desire to nix it along with the recently defunct Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF).Esper told reporters at US Strategic Command on Thursday that the US has yet to finally determine whether it will stay the course with the treaty, but underscored that Washington “can’t continue” to tolerate Russian “noncompliance” with the treaty.“So far, no formal final decision has been made. In due course we will be getting together to do that, to decide the best path forward for our nation,” Esper said. “I take no view one way or the other with regard to arms control in general. They should be in our national interests if we’re going to enter an agreement or continue an agreement. The place where we begin is compliance with what’s happening on those agreements.” Esper continued. The Trump administration notified NATO in late November that the US is mulling pulling out of the treaty unless Russian non-compliance issues are rectified.The Americans and Russians have for years quarrelled over specifics, including what reconnaissance cameras and equipment should be allowed, but more importantly Russia's restriction of US overflights near Kaliningrad and Georgia, as detailed in the following: U.S. critics of the treaty have raised concerns about Russian compliance with the treaty, citing, in particular, Russia’s refusal to allow observation flights within 500 kilometers of Kaliningrad or within a 10-kilometer corridor along Russia’s border with the Georgian border-conflict regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The United States has reciprocated by restricting flights over the Pacific Fleet in Hawaii and the missile defense interceptor fields in Fort Greely, Alaska.
Trump Not Giving Up On Military Options For Maduro's Ouster, Considers Naval Blockade - Despite Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro emerging victorious after last year's tumultuous events, which included a US assisted coup attempt by a faction of the military last Spring, out of which Washington also maintained a diplomatic fiction that opposition leader Juan Guaidó is actually the president, it appears the White House is still considering military options against Maduro. Bloomberg reports "President Donald Trump is frustrated that pressure is building too slowly on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and is still considering military options in the country, including a naval blockade, a senior administration official said." Apparently the current sanctions regimen and attempt to block all oil exports, which has seen the US go after major oil companies still doing business with state-run PDVSA (most recently sanctioning a subsidiary of Russian state oil major Rosneft), is not putting swift or severe enough pressure on the Maduro government. The goal remains, the unnamed top official told Bloomberg, "securing free and fair elections in Venezuela" — which in Washington-speak really means ensuring US-backed Guaidó secures loyalty of the military and thereby leadership over the country. "The U.S. doesn’t believe that free elections are possible with Maduro in power," the official said further. The report names Spain as a key European barrier to the US and EU campaign to ouster Maduro. Several new initiatives are being undertaken keep keep up and increase the pressure, however, as Bloomberg notes: The U.S. has put several companies that continue to do business in Venezuela on notice, the official said, including India’s Reliance Industries, Spain’s Repsol, Chevron and Greek shippers. Trump is likely to raise the issue of India’s oil imports from Venezuela with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during a two-day visit next week, the official said Friday in a briefing for reporters.
Trump’s budget gives Greenland another try --President Donald Trump’s far-fetched plan to acquire Greenland proved unsuccessful last year, but a new idea tucked away in the president’s new budget request has a better chance: a consulate in the independent, ice-covered Danish territory.The administration’s proposal, rolled out last week, would give the State Department $587,000 to build a first permanent consular services outpost in the strategic location in the Arctic Circle. The funds would “establish a permanent diplomatic presence in Greenland, which was previously notified to Congress,” according to the request.The drama between Trump and Denmark last summer drew laughter from lawmakers to TV personalities, starting with a Wall Street Journal report on the purchase and ending with Trump canceling a trip to Copenhagen. At the time, some advocates inside the government argued a stronger U.S.-Greenland relationship would help edge out growing Russian and Chinese influence in the region, an argument that’s come into the spotlight again.Greenland’s premier had declared the region “is not for sale and cannot be sold,” and Trump’s plan collapsed. Now, some administration officials and experts say this time around, Trump’s request to build a consulate is likely to be approved by Congress due to the region’s strategic importance to military capabilities and environmental research.“It allows us first to represent the Americans who are there and second to have more of a strategic presence,” a State Department official said. “It’s not very expensive. ... It’s a start. And it says that we’re at least there and attempting to play.” The official added Greenland’s allure, namely its high volume of rare earth minerals, makes Congress likely to support the proposal. Those minerals are critical to making electronics, including satellites, fighter jet engines, smartphones and electric cars. “That’s why Russia is interested in it, that’s why China is interested in it, that’s why much of Europe is interested in it,” the official said.
If Duterte Wants Us Out, Let's Go - Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte has just given us notice he will be terminating the Visiting Forces Agreement that governs U.S. military personnel in the islands. His notification starts the clock running on a six-month deadline. If no new agreement is negotiated, the VFA is dissolved. Duterte was offended that one of his political allies who led his anti-drug campaign in the islands, which involves extrajudicial killings of drug dealers, had been denied a U.S. visa. Yet, Duterte has never been an enthusiast of the U.S. presence. In 2016, he told his Chinese hosts in Beijing: “I want, maybe in the next two years, my country free of the presence of foreign military troops. I want them out.” The Pentagon is shaken. If there is no VFA, how do we continue to move forces in and out to guarantee our ability to honor the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty? Defense Secretary Mark Esper called Duterte’s action “a step in the wrong direction.” President Donald Trump openly disagreed: “If they would like to do that, that’s fine. We’ll save a lot of money.” The Philippine Islands are among the largest recipients of foreign aid in East Asia, and we’ve provided $1.3 billion in military assistance over the last two decades. But money shouldn’t be the largest consideration here. Trump has been given a historic opportunity to reshape U.S. and Asia policy along the lines he ran on in 2016. He should tell Duterte that we accept his decision and that we, too, are giving notice of our decision to let the 1951 treaty lapse. And following expiration of that treaty, the U.S. will be absolved of any legal obligation to come to the defense of the Philippines. Time for Manila to take charge of its own defense. Indeed, what is the argument for a treaty that virtually dictates U.S. involvement in any future war in 7,600 islands 8,000 miles from the United States?
West Point Prof Pens Blistering Takedown Of U.S. Military Academies - What do you call a civilian law professor who, after successfully filing for federal whistleblower status to keep his job teaching at West Point Military Academy, proceeds to write a bombshell book about the systematic corruption, violence, fraud, and anti-intellectualism he says has been rampant at the historic institution for over a hundred years?Well, if you are part of the military leadership or an alumnus of the storied military academy, you may call him a traitor.But if you are anyone searching for reasons why the most powerful military in the world has not won a war in 75 years, you might call him a truth-teller. And a pretty brave one at that. Tim Bakken’s The Cost of Loyalty: Dishonesty, Hubris and Failure in the U.S. Military is set for release tomorrow, and it should land like a grenade. Unlike the myriad critiques of the military that wash over the institution from outside the Blob, this one is written by a professor with 20 years on the inside. He knows the instructors, the culture, the admissions process, the scandals, the cover-ups, and how its legendary “warrior-scholars” have performed after graduation and on the battlefield. Bakken’s prognosis: the military as an institution has become so separate, so insulated, so authoritarian, that it can no longer perform effectively. In fact, it’s worse: the very nature of this beast is that it has been able to grow exponentially in size and mission so that it now conducts destructive expeditionary wars overseas with little or no real cohesive strategy or oversight. Its huge budgets are a source of corporate grift, self-justification, and corruption. The military has become too big, yes, but as Bakkan puts it, it’s failing in every way possible.
Inside the Pentagon’s Secret UFO Program - On December 16, 2017, the New York Times disclosed that the Pentagon had secretly funded research into UFOs through the Advanced Aerospace Threat Identification Program, or AATIP. As if the U.S. government quietly investigating UFOs wasn’t enough, for the first time, the public also got a chance to see three videos captured by the U.S. Navy showing what has been claimed to be “Unidentified Aerial Phenomena,” or UAP. In an instant, UFOs were no longer relegated to society’s nihilistically curious, and for the first time in decades, droves of the mainstream public suddenly found themselves peering skyward with wonder. But almost as quickly as the excitement of mysterious black budget UFO programs crashed ashore, so, too, came vexing waves of criticism, confusion, and controversy. Adding to the chaos, an entirely different program moniker emerged: the Advanced Aerospace Weapons Systems Applications Program, or AAWSAP. For over two years, no one has been able to adequately explain whether AAWSAP and AATIP were two separate programs, or the same intuitive under two separate names. To muddle matters more, a revolving door of Pentagon spokespeople have successfully issued waves of contradictory statements about what the Department of Defense (DoD) did or didn’t do when it came to studying UFOs. Initially, the Pentagon said, AATIP had indeed investigated UFOs under the leadership of Luis Elizondo, a former senior member of the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence (OUSDI). Eventually, in a complete reversal of official stances, the Pentagon’s newly crowned UFO point person, Senior Strategic Planner and Spokesperson Susan Gough, recently told The Black Vault, “neither AAWSAP nor AATIP were UAP related,” “Elizondo was not the director of AATIP,” and he didn’t have “assigned responsibilities” within the program. In some consolation to the UFO faithful, the DoD has consistently been willing to say they consider the curious objects shown in the 2017 videos to be unexplained UAP. What exactly that means, however, has been open for interpretation and debate. After months of conducting interviews and uncovering previously undisclosed materials, Popular Mechanics is revealing here that the U.S. government does indeed have a definite interest in UFOs. Provided, of course, that nobody says it out loud.
US Agency Which Secures President's Communications Says Its Systems Were Breached - A US defense agency responsible for securing the communications of the president and senior officials has said it believes personal data from its systems were "compromised" during a 2019 data breach. Reuters broke the story Thursday, based on a letter sent from the Defense Information Systems Agency (DISA) to potential victims of the high level breach: The U.S. defense agency responsible for secure communications for the U.S. president and other high-level officials said social security numbers and other personal data in its network may have been “compromised”, in a letter seen by Reuters that was sent to potential victims. The letter identifies the breach as occurring between May and July 2019, and involved personal data possibly compromised “in a data breach on a system hosted by” the agency. The agency employs some 8,000 military and civilian employees and is under the Department of Defense. It's believed that among sensitive data leaked are Social Security numbers and other personnel information; however, it's as yet uncertain whether the data was stored on a classified system. A follow-up statement by a DISA spokesperson confirmed that, “The Defense Information Systems Agency has begun issuing letters to people whose personally identifiable information may have been compromised in a data breach on a system hosted by the agency.”
Addled and confused’ Trump viciously mocked after his own intel pick snubs him on national TV - Late Thursday night, Donald Trump floated the name of Rep. Doug Collins (R-GA) as a possible nomination to become his Director of National Security without apparently consulting with the lawmaker — who in turn humiliated the president by saying he had no interest in the job less than 12 hours later. Appearing on the Fox Business Network, Collins — one of the president’s most voluble supporters — blew off the idea of taking the job by telling host Maria Bartiromo, ” “It is humbling. It’s amazing to have the president think that much of you, to mention my name among others to be this position,” before adding, “Let me tell you right now, I know the problems in the intelligence committee. It’s not a job that would interest me, not one that I would accept.” As Axios reporter Jonathan Swan noted, the Collins pitch by the president is just one more example of a White House in disarray. Defend democracy. Click to invest in courageous progressive journalism today. “How does your team not check with the guy you’re floating before you float him?! Now President gets publicly rebuffed on live television. Smacks of a half baked idea that seems politically smart in a vacuum but that apparently nobody bothered on the WH staff thought to check,” he tweeted, and many commenters agreed.
Trump unleashed: President moves with a free hand post-impeachment President Trump is moving swiftly to clear his administration of perceived foes and fill it with loyalists, a sign he’s trying to consolidate power post-impeachment as he heads into the reelection fight. Trump appears emboldened by his acquittal in the Republican-controlled Senate, ousting individuals from his White House and administration whom he believes crossed him during impeachment. This includes Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, who the Army secretary said Friday, was not under investigation after Trump hinted he may face further disciplinary action after he was dismissed from his White House post and sent back to the Pentagon early. While some Republicans hoped the president would be chastened by the impeachment proceedings, the opposite has proven true. He has expressed no remorse over his actions, instead seeking to strengthen his hold over the executive branch. This week he waded into the fight over a sentencing recommendation for longtime associate Roger Stone, criticizing the career Justice Department prosecutors who worked on the case and the judge assigned to the trial. The commentary prompted a rare rebuke from Attorney General William Barr, one of his most prominent and trusted Cabinet members. Asked what he learned from impeachment, Trump told reporters Wednesday his takeaway was that “the Democrats are crooked. … That they're vicious. That they shouldn’t have brought impeachment.” His comments dashed the hopes of Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and others who had expressed optimism that Trump would have gleaned from impeachment that his behavior was at times inappropriate and needed to change. “The acquittal liberated Donald Trump,” said Republican strategist Doug Heye. “It’s one of the reasons I thought censure was a better maneuver for Democrats.” Trump’s acquittal has turned over a new leaf for the president. The impeachment process further underscored his wariness of the government bureaucracy outside his inner circle. The president moved quickly to shake up his staff in the aftermath of impeachment. He pushed out Vindman from his post on the National Security Council and fired U.S. Ambassador to the European Union Gordon Sondland, a $1 million donor to Trump’s inauguration. Their exits followed voluntary departures by a handful of other witnesses, including former Ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch and diplomat William Taylor. Trump and his advisers have suggested that more individuals could be shown the door.
Why the Presidency Can’t Just Go Back to ‘Normal’ After Trump -President Donald Trump has spent three years incinerating a group of practices commonly lumped together under the nebulous category of “norms and traditions,” causing the chattering class to worry that he’ll “destroy the presidency,” “undermine American democracy,” “erode” our institutions with each break with precedent or decorum. There are also those, including presidential candidate Joe Biden, who insist that things can go back to normal when Trump is gone. Either in January 2021 or January 2025, these optimists hope, America will experience a restoration of these timeless customs. Here’s the problem: Many of these “presidential norms and traditions” that Trump has left by the wayside aren’t timeless at all; they’re actually quite new. They grew up alongside and in reaction to the expansion of both the federal state and the presidency—a process that began in the early 20th century but gained steam from the 1930s onward. With the growth of what Arthur Schlesinger Jr. called the “imperial presidency,” each occupant of the Oval Office has left his imprimatur on the development of what we think of as normative presidential conduct.That means that whatever impact Trump has might not be so easy to undo.Take, for example, three cherished institutions—White House news briefings, independent courts, nonpartisan law enforcement agencies and a nonpartisan civil service. Their foundations are more young and shaky than you might think, and once altered, they may not be easily restored. Future presidents may regard newer precedents as more binding. A once-sturdy nonpartisan civil service and equally assured nonpartisan courts may be too weakened to enforce a return to prior norms. A public once conditioned to expect certain things of its presidents may have lost a critical amount of muscle memory. In short, anyone who expects a restoration of the status quo circa 2017 may be in for a rude awakening.
US To Block GE Engine Sales, China's New Passenger Plane Faces Turbulence - A likely U.S. ban on the proposed sale of General Electric engines for use in China’s first major commercial aircraft Comac C919 is roiling the global aviation industry. It could also worsen the trade war between the world’s two largest economies. The talk of the ban has been triggered by the fear of some officials in President Donald Trump's administration that a successful Chinese commercial jetliner could be a serious competition for U.S. aircraft maker Boeing that is in trouble over the grounding of 737 Max planes around the world, a Reuters report said. The twin-engine, single-aisle C919 would be competing with the troubled 737 Max and A320 of European manufacturer Airbus Industrie. The issue is likely to be discussed at an interagency meeting on enforcing limits on U.S. technology exports to China on Feb. 20 and later at a meeting including members of the Trump cabinet on Feb. 28, according to Reuters. The restriction may be extended over the sale of some other vital components like flight control systems of Honeywell International Inc. that C919 is eyeing, a report on Al Jazeera website said. Any decision to restrict the engine or other vital component sales could be a deviation from the U.S. policy of allowing American companies to help develop China's nascent civil aviation industry. C919 has already started test flights using GE LEAP engines, sold under a license that the U.S. administration granted in 2014 and again in 2019, and is expected to go on commercial production next year. The LEAP engine is a joint venture between GE and France's Safran Aircraft Engines, the Wall Street Journal reported.
Trump blasts proposed restrictions on selling U.S. jet parts to China - (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday blasted proposals that could restrict U.S. companies’ ability to supply jet engines and other components to China’s aviation industry and said he had instructed his administration to prevent such moves. The president’s intervention illustrated, at least in this case, his desire to prioritize economic benefits over potential competitive pitfalls and national security concerns. And it contrasts with his administration’s treatment of China’s telecoms industry; U.S. companies are prevented from trading with Huawei Technologies, the world’s largest telecommunications equipment maker, for national security reasons. But in a series of tweets on Tuesday, Trump said national security should not be used as an “excuse” to make it difficult for foreign countries to buy U.S. products. “The United States cannot, & will not, become such a difficult place to deal with in terms of foreign countries buying our product, including for the always used National Security excuse, that our companies will be forced to leave in order to remain competitive,” Trump wrote on Twitter.
U.S. mulls cutting Huawei off from global chip suppliers, with TSMC in crosshairs (Reuters) - The Trump administration is considering changing U.S. regulations to allow it to block shipments of chips to Huawei Technologies [HWT.UL] from companies such as Taiwan’s TSMC, the world’s largest contract chipmaker, two sources familiar with the matter said. New restrictions on commerce with China’s Huawei are among several options to be considered at high-level U.S. meetings this week and next. The chip proposal has been drafted but its approval is far from certain, one of the sources said. The measure would be a blow to the world’s no. 2 smartphone maker as well as to TSMC, a major producer of chips for Huawei’s HiSilicon unit and mobile phone rivals Apple Inc (AAPL.O) and Qualcomm Inc. “What they’re trying to do is make sure that no chips go to Huawei that they can possibly control,” the second source said. Huawei is at the heart of a battle for global technological dominance between the United States and China. The United States is trying to convince allies to exclude its gear from next generation 5G networks on grounds its equipment could be used by China for spying. Huawei has repeatedly denied the claim. To target global chip sales to Huawei, U.S. authorities would alter the Foreign Direct Product Rule, which subjects some foreign-made goods based on U.S. technology or software to U.S. regulations. Reuters reported possible changes to that rule in November. Under the draft proposal, the U.S. government would force foreign companies that use U.S. chipmaking equipment to seek a U.S. license before supplying Huawei - a major expansion of export control authority that could anger U.S. allies worldwide.
State-Backed Economist Says China Must Delay Trade-Deal Commitments - Remember when Larry Kudlow said that President Xi had pledged to "meet [China's] obligations" under the 'Phase 1' trade pact, outbreak be damned, and that negotiations for 'Phase 2' were "completely separate" from the outbreak? Unsurprisingly, the SCMP confirmed on Monday that this probably isn't going to happen. Odds are, China will need to delay its commitment to purchase an additional $200 billion in American goods and services, even as Beijing ends restrictions on importing American agricultural products like poultry and soybeans. Two weeks ago, rumors that China would seek "flexibility" were the earliest indication that the regime was already weighing what to do. Now, in an obvious trial balloon, a state-backed economist is urging Beijing to invoke 'force majeur'. Fortunately for Beijing, the two sides included a 'force majeur' clause in the deal that read: "In the event that a natural disaster or other unforeseeable event outside the control of the parties delays a party from timely complying with its obligations under this agreement, the parties shall consult with each other." However, few expect the US to accept the delay without some kind of negotiation: Xu Qiyuan, a researcher at the China Finance 40 Forum (and a state-backed economist in Beijing), said he believes China should request to postpone the implementation of the purchase plan "in an appropriate manner" right away. According to the SCMP, Xu's comments about missing the deal quotas were part of a mounting consensus among international trade economists that the outbreak has made meeting the quotas impossible. One week after the nation was supposed to get "back to work", most of China's economy remains shuttered. Even the factories that have reopened are operating well below capacity. A survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai released on Monday saying that almost 80% of American-owned factories in China haven't been able to staff production lines.
Coronavirus solidifies US-China decoupling -In November 2019, Henry Kissinger was in Beijing for the Bloomberg Next Economy Forum, warning that the US and China are in the “foothills of a Cold War”, saying that conflict could be worse than World War I if left to run unconstrained.These comments came in the context of escalating tensions in recent years over trade, increasing rhetoric of military conflict over Taiwan and the South China, Sea, accusations of espionage and influence campaigns, and an all-out competition to define the norms and values underpinning the international order.One month later in December, there was an outbreak of the coronavirus in Wuhan, which resulted in worldwide panic and the de facto quarantine of the Chinese economy via city lockdowns, business shutdowns, and travel bans from the international community.With the shift of Washington’s China policy from one of engagement to containment and decoupling under the Trump administration, some observers such as Curtis Chin, an Asia fellow at the Milken Institute, believes the coronavirus is accelerating the decoupling with China as countries and businesses “think about their supply chain for the long run.”Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross shares this view and sees China’s pandemic crisis as an opportunity to bring jobs back to the US. Meanwhile, hawks continue to stress maximum pressure to boycott, divest and sanction (BDS) China with warnings that Beijing is committing bio-warfare via a virology lab in Wuhan, and for the US to deny medical aid and allow the virus to “rampage through the ranks” of China’s Communist Party, telling US officials they arebeing used as unwitting agents of China, and to continue with trade tariffs and varioussanctions on the Chinese economy. In recent years, China watchers have been growing alarmed at the rapid deterioration of US-China relations. Nowadays, it is common to hear arguments warning of a split of the global economy into mutually exclusive American and Chinese spheres of influence. The former Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd has warned that if indeed we arrive at a fully ‘decoupled world’, it would herald the return of an ‘iron curtain’ between the East and the West, and “the beginning of a new conventional and nuclear arms race with all its attendant strategic instability and risk.” However, Yun Sun from the Stimson Centre says US and China have already entered a war of attrition that will accelerate the decoupling of US-China economic ties, as both actors and third parties change the composition and direction of their supply chains and shift them elsewhere. She warned that if decoupling results in the two countries shedding all common interests and leaving raw and pure conflicting interests, it would be a dangerous path – one leading towards military confrontation. That view is shared by a retired senior US Army officer, Lt. Gen. Karl Eikenberry.
White House Warns Beijing- 'We Still Expect You To Honor Your Trade Deal Commitments' -- A Chinese official recently suggested that Beijing might need some 'wiggle room' to fulfill its commitments under the 'Phase 1' trade deal. Now, the Treasury Department is hinting that this might not be an option, and that the US expects the Chinese to honor their commitments. Citing comments from an anonymous 'senior Treasury official' (possibly Mnuchin himself), Reuters reports that the US government expects China to honor its commitments, to which it agreed late last year, around the same time that the virus first emerged in Wuhan. The report arrives just days after the IMF confirmed that the epidemic had already disrupted economic growth in China, and that it could derail already-fragile global growth if it continues to worsen and spread. However, the official narrative in Beijing is that the government is winning the war, and that the brief pullback in Q1 growth will be offset by a recovery later in the year. Yesterday, the market got the first hint at the outbreak's impact on China's high-tech manufacturing sector (think Foxxconn, iPhones) with an unprecedented drop in China's emerging industries PMI.But so far the fallout has been beyond brutal. To be sure, the US didn't rule out all flexibility. While the official said the US still expects China to meet its commitments with the $200 billion figure in total imports, he pointed out that these increases are supposed to be doled out over a "period of time."As the Washington Post reminds us, China's agricultural commitments alone in the Phase 1 deal were pretty specific: Beijing agreed to buy an additional $32 billion over the first two years, $12.5 billion over the $24 billion baseline in 2020, and $19.5 billion over that same baseline in 2021. The 'baseline' is $24 billion, the level of Chinese ag purchases in 2017, before Trump decided to instigate his big trade war. The commitments were part of a deal that's supposed to guarantee an additional $200 billion in ag purchases over the baseline in the years ahead, with Beijing ordering state-controlled firms to carry them out in good ol' fashioned centrally planned purchases that brings to mind the control economies of the Communist era.And those ag purchases are only part of the broader $200 billion commitment over two years: Technically, China is expected to purchase an additional $77 billion US goods in 2020 and $123 billion by 2021, compared with a baseline of U.S. imports from 2017 However, almost as soon as the deal was signed, economists and analysts complained loudly that the deal was little more than a PR stunt, and that there was no way Beijing would be able to guarantee such hefty purchases (others argued that Beijing could make it happen). On Thursday, the chief economist at the US Department of Agriculture seemed to suggest that these critics might have been on to something when he released a projection claiming that China would only import roughly $14 billion in ag products during the business year that ends Sept. 30. That's only a $4 billion increase from a year ago. Purchases were supposed to be between $40 and $50 billion this year and next year. Perdue made the comments during the USDA's Agricultural Outlook Forum this week, and during a news conference later on, he added that enforcing the deal "remained a concern" and that the coronavirus outbreak made projections difficult. So far, China has lifted some restrictions, including a live poultry ban (mostly for breeding), affecting the US. But that ban wasn't related to the trade war; ironically, it was a precaution put in place during an avian flu outbreak.
Trump Hints At 3rd Ag Bailout, Promises Farmers "Additional Aid" Until Trade Deals "Fully Kick In" President Trump tweeted a message of support to America's farmers, pledging to deliver another round of federal bailout money if China, Canada and Mexico fail to immediately satisfy their commitments under their respective trade agreements with the US.The message arrived in all-caps:IF OUR FORMALLY TARGETED FARMERS NEED ADDITIONAL AID UNTIL SUCH TIME AS THE TRADE DEALS WITH CHINA, MEXICO, CANADA AND OTHERS FULLY KICK IN, THAT AID WILL BE PROVIDED BY THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT, PAID FOR OUT OF THE MASSIVE TARIFF MONEY COMING INTO THE USA!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 21, 2020Of course, as many (including us) have noted, American firms are the ones on the hook for the tariffs, and the revenue, while strong, would be nowhere near enough to offset another 11-figure bailout package.Considering the tweet's forgiving tone, it looks like this is another classic Trump trade triangulation (where Trump sets the China hawks and pro-trade doves against each other, then stakes out a more moderate path, often via twitter). As we noted earlier, a senior Treasury Department official reportedly told Reuters that the administration is unsympathetic to China's coronavirus-related troubles, and that it expects Beijing to keep its promise to buy $200 billion in US goods (with a large slug of that slated for ag products) over the next two years.In essence, this 'senior official' was telling Beijing: 'fuck you, pay me'.Now, it appears President Trump has decided to soften the message a bit, telling farmers that the federal government will be there to backstop them if China does eventually need a little more time to make good on its commitments, or if the economic blowback is so severe that Mexico and Canada are heavily impacted (which is possible, but then again if that happens Trump might have other problems). So far, the Trump administration has promised farmers a total of $28 billion in two farm bailouts, with the rest of that money set to be paid by April. Now he's saying he might do a third if the coronavirus fallout for the global economy is bad enough.
Federal employee retirement benefits would be cut under Trump’s budget - President Trump has again proposed reducing the value of federal retirement benefits while requiring most federal employees to pay more toward those benefits. In some cases, the benefits would be reduced only for future retirees, but in other cases, those already retired would face a cut, as well.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell calls out massive US health spending, says Americans are ‘getting nothing’ in return - The United States is one of the highest spenders on healthcare for its citizens, but it has very little to show for it, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday.Powell made the brutal comments during a Senate Banking Committee hearing on monetary policy. Republican Sen. Ben Sasse of Nebraska asked the Fed chair to weigh in on the effect of healthcare spending on the economy, and Powell said the US was spending at far higher levels without much to show for it.The outcomes are perfectly average for a first-world nation, but we spend 6% to 7% of GDP more than other countries," he said. "So it's about the delivery. That's a lot of money that you are effectively spending and getting nothing."The Fed chair added that developed countries had been more successful in delivering quality healthcare for much less to their citizens."It's not that these benefits are fabulously generous — they're just what people get in Western economies," Powell said.It's not the first time Powell has weighed in on the rising price tag of healthcare in America. In a 2018 interview with Yahoo Finance, he warned that it could hurt the country's economy in the future."It's no secret: It's been true for a long time that with our uniquely expensive healthcare delivery system and the aging of our population, we've been on an unsustainable fiscal path for a long time," the Fed chair said. US health spending grew by 4.6% in 2018, reaching over $3.6 trillion,according to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. And it has been swelling for decades. The US spent about $10,000 per person for healthcare in 2017, about twice as much as other developed countries, according to the nonpartisan Kaiser Family Foundation. But it has ranked poorlyin health outcomes, particularly on infant mortality and deaths from preventable causes under age 75. One study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association last year estimated that nearly a quarter of that spending — up to $935 billion a year— was wasteful, with failures of care delivery and coordination eating up most of the nation's mismanaged health expenditures.
The American Health Care System Costs Four Times More Than Canada’s Single-Payer System (and the Public Option Won’t Help) – The cost of administering health care in the United States costs four times as much as it does in Canada, which has had a single-payer system for nearly 60 years, according to a new study.The average American pays a whopping $2,497 per year in administrative costs — which fund insurer overhead and salaries of administrative workers as well as executive pay packages andgrowing profits — compared to $551 per person per year in Canada, according to a study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine last month. The study estimated that cutting administrative costs to Canadian levels could save more than $600 billion per year.The data contradicts claims by opponents of single-payer health care systems, who have argued that private programs are more efficient than government-run health care. The debate over the feasibility of a single-payer health care has dominated the Democratic presidential race, where candidates like Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., advocate for a system similar to Canada’s while moderates like former Vice President Joe Biden and former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg have warned against scrapping private health care plans entirely.Canada had administrative costs similar to those in the United States before it switched to a single-payer system in 1962, according to the study’s authors, who are researchers at Harvard Medical School, the City University of New York at Hunter College, and the University of Ottawa. But by 1999, administrative costs accounted for 31% of American health care expenses, compared to less than 17% in Canada.“The U.S.-Canada disparity in administration is clearly large and growing,” the study’s authors wrote. “Discussions of health reform in the United States should consider whether $812 billion devoted annually to health administration is money well spent.”The increase in costs was driven in large part due to private insurers’ growing role in administering publicly-funded Medicare and Medicaid programs. More than 50% of private insurers’ revenue comes from Medicare and Medicaid recipients, according to the study. Roughly 12% of premiums for private Medicare Advantage plans are spent on overhead, compared to just 2% in traditional Medicare programs. Medicaid programs also showed a wide disparity in costs in states that shifted many of their Medicaid recipients into private managed care, where administrative costs are twice as high. There was little increase in states that have full control over their Medicaid programs. As a result, Americans pay far more for the same care.
‘On the brink’: Trump’s push for Medicaid transparency could worsen rural hospital crisis - The Trump administration is in the final stages of proposing a change to Medicaid that it says will increase financial transparency by hospitals, but health care advocates say will cause vulnerable hospitals to close and hurt Medicaid beneficiaries. In an effort to increase transparency, the administration’s rule will require hospitals and states to share more data about the funds they receive through Medicaid, but at the same time it will lead to a decrease in Medicaid’s federal matching dollars by redefining what is considered to be public funds. The federal government typically matches what those hospitals generate in public funds — including money from state, city and county taxes — as part of its agreement with states, but this rule would reduce hospital supplemental payments and limit state Medicaid financing by creating standards that critics say are vague and go beyond the agency's authority. Ultimately, the shift could reduce national Medicaid funding by between $37 billion to $49 billion annually and cause hospitals to lose $23 billion to $31 billion in annual Medicaid payments, according to the American Hospital Association. For Kansas, which is considering expanding Medicaid to help bolster financially vulnerable rural hospitals, while also providing health care coverage to as many as 150,000 people, the proposed changes could make an already bad health care situation worse. A study released this month by the Chartis Center for Rural Health found that 30 percent of the state’s 105 rural hospitals are economically compromised and in danger of closing. “Clearly our hospitals cannot take a financial hit — they’re already on the brink," Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly, a Democrat, told NBC News. “We’re really looking for ways to help them navigate and change their business models so that we can continue to provide health care services to our rural populations. Any cut in reimbursement is not going to be helpful at all.”
Trump Proposes 16% Cut To CDC As Global Number Of Coronavirus Infections And Deaths Rise --As the coronavirus continues to spread, President Trump’s proposed 2021 budget calls for drastic cuts to funding for the Centers for Disease Control and the World Health Organization that critics say could prevent preparedness for a pandemic at home.
- Trump released his proposed 2021 budget Monday, which included a 16% cut to the CDC’s budget and a 10% overall reduction to the Department of Health and Human Services’ funding, according to the Washington Post.
- The U.S. contributes about 2.5% of the World Health Organization’s overall $4.8 billion budget, and Trump’s proposal calls for a $65 million cut to the group; if enacted, the U.S.’ contribution would be reduced by over 40%.
- An additional 34% reduction is proposed for overall global health programs, but Trump is asking for $115 million to be set aside for global health security for the purpose of combating “infectious disease threats.”
- However, the proposed budget is unlikely to pass the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives, which the Post notes has the power of the purse, and will ultimately decide how the funds will be spent, after various committees weigh in.
- The coronavirus (which was renamed Tuesday by the World Health Organization as COVID-19) has not been declared a pandemic, but the group has called for an immediate $675 million investment in “rational and evidence-based interventions” to stop the outbreak.
- As of Monday, the U.S. has 12 confirmed cases, with one patient erroneously diagnosed as testing negative for the disease, based on a “mix-up” between the CDC and a San Diego hospital, CNN reported.
The Senate Budget Committee (led by Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) as the ranking member) said Trump’s budget would “destroy discretionary programs [by] cutting them by $1.9 trillion. These are things like Section 8, Head Start, WIC, LIHEAP, public housing, NOAA, NIH, NASA, NSF, the CDC—most of the programs that we think of when we think of what the government does.” And James Hamblin, a doctor who writes for The Atlantic, said on Twitter that the budget “doesn’t consider pandemic preparedness a matter of national security.”
Private Equity’s War to Preserve Surprise Billing - Yves Smith - If you want proof that private equity is predatory, you need go not further than its concerted efforts to extend and intensify the devastating practice of surprise billing. Bad enough that patients develop afflictions or have accidents that land them in the hospital. Recovering physically is hard enough. But to then have the stress and financial damage of large and unexpected bills, which are exercises in rent extraction, is the sort of thing that creates Madame DeFarges. Private equity experts Eileen Appelbaum and Rosemary Batt did the sleuthing to document how private equity has greatly extended and profited from this abuse. What most people do not realize is the degree to which hospitals have outsourced what most people would assume were core functions provided by doctors on the hospital’s payroll, such as emergency room doctors. With many large nominally not-for-profit hospital groups run by MBAs out to justify higher pay packages for themselves, many practice areas are in fact outsourced. Private equity has hoovered up these groups. They, and not the hospital, provide the personnel for a particular case, and they make sure to get some out of network practitioners on the team to pad the bills. One metric: a Stanford study determined that the odds of getting a surprise bill had increased from 32% in 2010 to 43% in 2016, and the average amount had risen over that time period from $220 to $628. A new study in Health Affairs found that this out of network billing raises health care costs by $40 billion per year. Appelbaum gave a high-level overview in a op-ed in The Hill last May: Physicians’ groups, it turns out, can opt out of a contract with insurers even if the hospital has such a contract. The doctors are then free to charge patients, who desperately need care, however much they want. This has made physicians’ practices in specialties such as emergency care, neonatal intensive care and anesthesiology attractive takeover targets for private equity firms….Emergency rooms, neonatal intensive care units and anesthesiologists’ practices do not operate like an ordinary marketplace. Physicians’ practices in these specialties do not need to worry that they will lose patients because their prices are too high.Patients can go to a hospital in their network, but if they have an emergency, have a baby in the neonatal intensive care unit or have surgery scheduled with an in-network surgeon, they are stuck with the out-of-network doctors the hospital has outsourced these services to….It’s not only patients that are victimized by unscrupulous physicians’ groups. These doctors’ groups are able to coerce health insurance companies into agreeing to pay them very high fees in order to have them in their networks.They do this by threatening to charge high out-of-network bills to the insurers’ covered patients if they don’t go along with these demands. High payments to these unethical doctors raise hospitals’ costs and everyone’s insurance premiums.
A Full Scale Attack on Medical Debt - The recent proposal by Sen. Bernie Sanders to cancel $81 billion of medical debt is a very good start – but it is only a start. The RIP Medical Debt group–which buys old medical debts ,and then forgives them– is absolutely in the right spirit. Its founders Craig Antico and Jerry Ashton deserve great credit for keeping the issue of forgiveness alive.Unfortunately, over $88 billion in new medical debt is created each year – most of it still held by providers, or sold to collectors, or embedded in credit card balances.Tragically, none of this has to happen! In France, a visit to the doctor typically costs the equivalent of $1.12 . A night in a German hospital costs a patient roughly $11. German co-pays for the year in-total cannot exceed 2% of income, Even in Switzerland, the average deductible is $300.U.S. patients face cost-sharing that would never be tolerated in Germany, says Dr. Markus Frick, a senior official . “If any German politician proposed high deductibles, he or she would be run out of town.”In Australia, a recent proposal to establish the equivalent of a $5 co-pay for primary care visits fueled such an outcry that the federal government was forced to withdraw the idea.Americans may be forced to take second jobs just to pay medical debt; meanwhile, the highly-taxed Europeans get free medical care and are counting their weeks of paid vacation. What is wrong with this picture?These nations have shown that cost sharing is not necessary to keep health care spending at a level well below that of the United States. They rely on higher taxes and price controls…..and yet, are those really worse than widespread patient debt? US Medical debt comes primarily from these sources:
- the uninsured
- high deductibles
- out-of-network bills
- claim denials
- specialty drugs
- emergency room care
- ‘zombie debts’ purchased by collectors
In this essay, we will show that a substantial number of these debts can be cancelled or greatly reduced.
Trump's Secret Service hotel racket is hiding in plain sight. And he's getting away with it. - On Wednesday night, when President Donald Trump addressed supporters from behind a Trump Hotels lectern in a room at his Trump International Hotel Washington, D.C., one of his company's most faithful customers accompanied him.The U.S. Secret Service.The government agency charged with protecting the president has paid his businesses at least $471,000 to fulfill its congressional mandate, according to documents The Washington Post recently obtained via the Freedom of Information Act. That's money from U.S. taxpayers flowing to the Trump Organization, with a venerable 155-year-old law enforcement organization being used like one of Michael Cohen's Delaware shell companies and serving as a conduit for presidential profit. And that $471,000 figure? It's only through April 2018.That's money from U.S. taxpayers flowing to the Trump Organization, with a venerable 155-year-old law enforcement organization being used like one of Michael Cohen's Delaware shell companies.In an interview with Yahoo Finance in October, Trump Organization Executive Vice President Eric Trump claimed his company charged the government only enough to recoup its costs when hosting the president. (Eric Trump also denied the new Washington Post reporting.) But the rates the new documents detail — $650 per room at Mar-a-Lago! $17,000 to rent a cottage for a month at Trump Bedminster! payments to the D.C. hotel despite Trump's never having spent a night there as president! — seem a bit higher than what it costs to clean a room and freshen the linens.These formerly federal funds can and do reach the president's pocket, albeit through another conduit: Trump's 400-plus business interests are held in a revocable trust that is not blind and can "distribute net income or principal to Donald J. Trump at his request," as ProPublica reported. (Maybe the president withdrew $1 from it to buy a Coke while you read that last sentence — we simply don't know.) A complete accounting of how much taxpayers have forked over to the Trump Organization since its CEO's election is as likely as a Trump pardon for Cohen. The Post's recent scoop, however, follows a microtrend of the government's occasionally releasing a little information about some expenditures at Trump businesses months or years after they occurred. What the government has allowed Americans to see demonstrates that the corruption is real: Substantial amounts of your money are, in fact, being spent at Trump properties, many of which are reported to be flounderingotherwise.
Tulsi Gabbard: How Democrats’ impeachment campaign helped Trump - Fortune op-ed - Donald Trump must be defeated: Another four years of him as president would be a disaster. Unfortunately, as I warned, the Democrats’ hyper-partisan impeachment process has increased the likelihood that he will be re-elected. After Trump’s acquittal in the Senate, his approval rating reached the highest levels since he took office. And the risk that he will win in November is much greater than before. This was entirely foreseeable. For years I have stressed the need for our leaders to make decisions based on thoughtfulness and foresight—not just emotion, or what may “feel good” in a given moment. This is especially important in the area of foreign policy, as politicians’ desire to “do something” too often overrides careful consideration of the unintended consequences of the actions they take. Time and time again, their poor judgment has led to worse outcomes in the countries where we recklessly intervene, and for our own country’s national security. An egregious lack of foresight also led to this counterproductive impeachment of Trump.Those who wish to lead our country should have had the foresight to know that this result was inevitable. They need to understand that their decisions should not be dictated by what makes them temporarily feel good or look good, but rather by what will be good for the American people. Emotional gratification or political advantage should never determine one’s votes or actions.I find it strange that the same people who loudly declare that Trump's re-election would be an existential threat to our country nonetheless advocated for the very thing which has increased the chances he will be re-elected. If they really believed that a second Trump term would be such a devastating catastrophe, perhaps they should not have given such a priceless contribution to his re-election campaign. I am not a genius; I simply had enough common sense to foresee that Trump would be acquitted. And I also used my common sense to predict that Trump would, upon his acquittal, use that as vindication. Unfortunately, common sense is not so common among politicians jockeying for power. It’s no secret that some presidential candidates believed that being the earliest and most emphatic to demand Trump’s impeachment would profit them politically—and they were right. They did benefit politically by exploiting Democratic voters’ disdain for Trump. But their political gain has been America’s loss.
After Trump Impeachment Acquittal, Dems to Largely End Investigations of President - House Democrats are pivoting away from investigations of President Donald Trump and toward economic issues and healthcare for the 2020 general election in November, according to a New York Times report, and shelving—for now—intentions to subpoena former National Security Advisor John Bolton and, in the eyes of critics, giving the president carte blanche on his machinations in the Justice Department. The shift toward so-called "kitchen table issues" and a deprioritization of investigations raised eyebrows as political observers noted that Trump has only been emboldened by acquittal and that DOJ is currently roiled in a scandal over the president's pressuring of Attorney General William Barr on prosecutions."Dems are gonna 'run on healthcare' while letting Bill Barr turn the Justice Department into muscle for the Trump organization," tweeted Atlantic staff writer Adam Serwer. As Common Dreams reported, Trump's meddling in DOJ prosecutions and sentencing guidelines has presented career prosecutors with a dilemma over how to proceed in a department that by all appearances has lost its independence. On Sunday, over 1,100 former DOJ officials signed an open letter to Barr asking him to resign over Trump's interference. "House Dems did literally the narrowest possible impeachment they could," saidCrooked Media's Brian Beutler. "The overwhelming majority of Trump's corruption remains uninvestigated. And they have now made the decision to normalize his dictatorial control over DOJ."The Times reported that House Democrats will bring Barr in for testimony: Democrats have summoned Mr. Barr to testify before the Judiciary Committee on March 31. In a harshly worded letter sent to Mr. Barr on Wednesday, Representative Jerrold Nadler of New York, the panel's chairman, signaled that Democrats planned to question Mr. Barr about overruling prosecutors on Mr. Stone's recommended sentence and Mr. Barr's willingness to accept information about Ukraine from Rudolph W. Giuliani, the president's personal lawyer, among other matters. But, the Times added, that is the extent to which Democrats would like to take things, preferring instead to focus on healthcare and jobs. To that end, party leaders brought Steven Rattner, a financier whose firm manages former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg's assets, to show lawmakers a PowerPoint presentation on how to speak on economic issues to everyday Americans.
Senate braces for fight over impeachment whistleblower testimony - Senators are reviving the fight over the whistleblower complaint at the center of the months-long impeachment effort against President Trump. With Trump’s trial in the rearview mirror, the Senate Intelligence Committee is quietly shifting its attention back to its investigation into the complaint process after hitting pause on the inquiry as the impeachment effort consumed Washington. The probe will force senators to decide if, and how, they speak with the whistleblower — a controversial call that could test the bipartisan reputation the Intelligence panel has maintained even amid deeply partisan fights in Congress. Asked by The Hill if he was willing to formally compel and subpoena the whistleblower to testify, Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Richard Burr (R-N.C.) didn’t rule out the possibility. “I think you can rest assured that I’m prepared to do whatever we have to to interview the whistleblower,” Burr said. The renewed interest in speaking with the whistleblower comes after committee staff and lawyers for the individual hit a stalemate late last year over potential questioning. Lawyers for the individual made offers at the time to both the House and Senate Intelligence committees that their client was willing to provide written answers under oath, but Burr rejected that offer. The North Carolina senator indicated no progress had been made since then in trying to reach a deal on testimony and that while he hadn’t spoken recently with Mark Zaid, one of the whistleblower’s lawyers, his plan is “an interview with committee staff.”
John Bolton says his testimony wouldn’t have changed impeachment outcome— Former national security adviser John Bolton on Wednesday denounced the House’s impeachment proceedings against President Donald Trump as “grossly partisan” and said his testimony would not have changed Trump’s acquittal in the Senate, as he continued to stay quiet on the details of a yet-to-be-released book. In his second public discussion this week, Bolton was on stage at Vanderbilt University with former national security adviser under President Barack Obama, Susan Rice, who questioned Bolton’s refusal to discuss more details while his book undergoes screening for possible classified national security details by the Trump administration. Bolton was likewise quiet on specifics from the book during a Monday speaking engagement at Duke University. Bolton plans to publish the book next month detailing his time in the White House, including criticism of Trump actions such as his decision to withhold military assistance while seeking a political favor from Ukraine. He said he believes the book doesn’t contain classified information. Bolton contended that the House “committed impeachment malpractice,” drawing some grumbling from the audience, saying “the process drove Republicans who might have voted for impeachment away because it was so partisan.” He also said he didn’t expect the Senate to vote against having him testify. “People can argue about what I should have said and what I should have done,” Bolton said. “I would bet you a dollar right here and now, my testimony would have made no difference to the ultimate outcome.”
Two thousand former US Justice Department officials call for resignation of William Barr - More than 2,000 former officials of the US Department of Justice have signed an online petition calling on Attorney General William Barr to resign. The number of signatures doubled in 24 hours after the petition was first made public on Sunday. The campaign against Barr is the latest round in the ongoing political warfare in Washington, erupting after the failure of the Democratic Party’s impeachment drive against President Trump. That ended with a vote in the Senate that fell far short of the two-thirds required to remove him from office. Trump has since gone on the warpath, firing or removing officials who testified against him in the House impeachment inquiry, as well as seeking to quash the remaining cases that arose from the investigation by Special Counsel Robert Mueller. That 22-month probe found no proof of a conspiracy between Russia and the Trump campaign in the 2016 election. The move against Barr was launched after he intervened into the ongoing case of Trump crony Roger Stone, overruling the prosecutors who had recommended a lengthy jail term and urging the judge to impose a lighter sentence. All four prosecutors involved in the case resigned in protest, one of them leaving the Justice Department entirely, the other three withdrawing only from the Stone case. Stone was convicted last November of seven counts of lying to Congress, lying to the FBI in the Mueller probe, and witness-tampering. Federal Judge Amy Berman Jackson is scheduled to sentence him on February 20, but Stone’s attorneys filed a motion last week seeking a new trial, claiming bias in the federal jury that heard the first case against him. A hearing on that motion is to take place in Jackson’s courtroom today. Stone testified falsely before Congress and the Mueller probe, boasting about having been an intermediary between Trump and WikiLeaks, although he actually had no contact with the anti-secrecy organization. WikiLeaks made public documents that damaged Clinton’s 2016 campaign by exposing her closed-door speeches to Wall Street audiences, in which she promised to serve their interests, as well as emails by Democratic National Committee (DNC) operatives in which they discussed how to undermine the campaign of Clinton’s main primary rival, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. Two of the four Justice Department prosecutors who brought the case against Stone had been part of the Mueller investigation, and there was a concerted effort to exaggerate the significance of Stone’s actions in order to push the fabricated narrative that Russian agents had hacked the DNC and Clinton campaign email servers and supplied the leaked documents to WikiLeaks. This was used in the campaign of vilification and persecution of WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange, who is currently in prison in London awaiting the start of hearings next Monday on the US request for his extradition to face espionage charges. In reality, despite media claims to the contrary, there was no connection between WikiLeaks and the Trump campaign, and there is no evidence to support claims that Russia supplied the leaked material. (WikiLeaks operates a drop box which is designed to allow anonymous deposits of documents).
Federal judges’ association calls emergency meeting after DOJ intervenes in case of Trump ally Roger Stone – A national association of federal judges has called an emergency meeting to address growing concerns about the intervention of Justice Department officials and President Donald Trump in politically sensitive cases, the group’s president said Monday.Philadelphia U.S. District Judge Cynthia Rufe, who heads the independent Federal Judges Association, said the group “could not wait” until its spring conference to weigh in on a deepening crisis that has enveloped the Justice Department and Attorney General William Barr.“There are plenty of issues that we are concerned about,” Rufe told USA TODAY. “We’ll talk all of this through.”Velma White, an aide to the judge, said the meeting is set for 1:30 p.m. Wednesday. USA TODAY had previously reported that the meeting would take place Tuesday. Rufe, nominated to the bench by President George W. Bush, said the group of more than 1,000 federal jurists called for the meeting last week after Trump criticizedprosecutors' initial sentencing recommendation for his friend Roger Stone and the Department of Justice overruled them. Trump also took a swipe at the federal judge who is set to preside at Stone’s sentencing hearing Thursday.“Is this the judge that put Paul Manafort in SOLITARY CONFINEMENT, something not even mobster Al Capone had to endure?” Trump tweeted last week, referring to U.S. District Judge Amy Berman Jackson. “How did she treat Crooked Hillary Clinton? Just asking!"Jackson jailed Manafort, Trump's former campaign chairman, prior to his convictions in two separate financial fraud cases after he sought to tamper with potential witnesses. Rufe said the judges' association is “not inclined to get involved with an ongoing case,” but she voiced strong support for Jackson.“I am not concerned with how a particular judge will rule,” Rufe said, praising Jackson's reputation. “We are supportive of any federal judge who does what is required.”The unusual concern voiced by the judges’ group comes in the wake of an equally unusual protest. More than 2,000 former Justice Department officials called on Barr to resign Sunday, claiming his handling of the Stone case "openly and repeatedly flouted" the principle of equal justice. "Although there are times when political leadership appropriately weighs in on individual prosecutions, it is unheard of for the department’s top leaders to overrule line prosecutors, who are following established policies, in order to give preferential treatment to a close associate of the president, as Attorney General Barr did in the Stone case," the letter reads.
Barr reportedly considers quitting as attorney general over Trump tweets - The attorney general, William Barr, has told people close to him he is considering quitting his post, after Donald Trump failed to heed his warning to stop tweeting about justice department cases, administration officials told the Washington Post and Associated Press.The revelation came days after Barr took a public swipe at the president, saying in a television interview that Trump’s tweets about justice department cases and staffers made it “impossible” for him to do his job. The next day, Trump ignored Barr’s request and insisted that he had the “legal right” to intervene in criminal cases and sidestep the department’s historical independence.Trump tweeted on Tuesday that he was considering suing those involved in the special counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia investigation and opined that his confidant Roger Stone deserved a new trial after being convicted of witness tampering and obstruction. The president also claimed, falsely, that he was “the chief law enforcement officer” of the US. In fact, as attorney general, Barr is the chief law enforcement officer in the federal government.Barr, serving his second stint as attorney general, has sought to paint himself as an independent leader who will not bow to political pressure. But Democrats have repeatedly accused him of acting more like the president’s personal attorney than the attorney general. Barr has proved to be a largely reliable Trump ally and defender of presidential power.A week ago, after Trump tweeted criticism of federal prosecutors’ recommendation that Stone should be sentenced to seven to nine years in prison, Barr intervened and reduced the recommendation. Barr’s claim that he had decided to make the change before Trump weighed in was met with skepticism. Four career prosecutors quit the case as a result; one of them left the federal government entirely.Over the weekend, 2,000 former justice department employees signed a letterurging Barr to resign over his handling of the Stone case. In response, a stream of Trump allies, including Senator Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican, have issued statements expressing their full confidence in the Barr. But Trump has a low tolerance for criticism, especially public criticism, from his allies and often fires back in kind. Trump conceded to reporters earlier on Tuesday that he did make Barr’s job “harder” but said he had “total confidence” in his attorney general. It is unclear whether Barr has made Trump aware that he is considering leaving his post, or how seriously he is considering leaving.
Trump pardons Michael Milken, face of 1980s insider trading scandals - President Donald Trump issued a pardon Tuesday to Michael Milken, the former junk bond king who was a face of the insider trading scandals of the 1980s.Trump, in announcing the pardon, cited the "incredible job" that Milken has done supporting cancer research since pleading guilty in 1990 to racketeering and securities fraud charges."He's done this and he suffered greatly," Trump said. "He paid a big price; paid a very tough price."Milken, 73, originally was sentenced to 10 years in prison for his crimes while heading the bond department at the investment bank Drexel Burnham Lambert and fined $600 million.But that punishment was later reduced to two years locked up after he cooperated with federal investigators.Milken also is banned for life from working in the securities industry. The pardon does not affect the lifetime ban, the White House told CNBC on Tuesday.
Trump announces a blitz of pardons and commutations –-President Donald Trump announced a host of pardons and commutations on Tuesday, ranging from Rod Blagojevich, the former Illinois governor jailed on corruption charges, to Bernie Kerik, the former New York police commissioner."Yes, we have commuted the sentence of Rod Blagojevich. He served eight years in jail, a long time," Trump told reporters before boarding Air Force One en route to Los Angeles. The commutation was one of a flurry of legal actions Trump took Tuesday, including pardons for Kerik, financier Michael Milken and former San Francisco 49ers owner Edward DeBartolo Jr. And they came days before the scheduled sentencing of Roger Stone in federal court in D.C., amid wide speculation that the president might pardon his former longtime adviser.Stone was at the center of last week's drama inside the Justice Department, with four career prosecutors quitting his case after Attorney General William Barr overruled their sentencing recommendation. Stone's looming fate has drawn Trump's condemnation in recent weeks, with the president calling it a "miscarriage of justice!" on Twitter and excoriating the prosecutors and judge for their handling of the case. On Tuesday, heappeared to echo a Fox News contributor’s call for a new trial but told reporters that he “hadn’t given it any thought” when asked whether a pardon was in the works.
Trump pardons ruling class criminals - President Donald Trump issued 11 pardons or commutations of sentence on Tuesday, choosing to expunge the lawbreaking records of billionaire financier Michael Milken, the one-time “junk bond king,” and billionaire real estate magnate Edward J. DeBartolo Jr., former owner of the San Francisco 49ers professional football team. He also pardoned former New York Police Commissioner Bernard Kerik, convicted of tax fraud and perjury, and commuted the 14-year jail term of former Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich, impeached and then convicted on multiple corruption counts, including attempting to sell the Senate seat of Barack Obama after Obama’s election to the presidency in 2008. Blagojevich, a Democratic congressman before his election as governor, was released from prison immediately on Trump’s orders, and declared himself a “Trumpocrat” in the 2020 election. Trump’s actions in relation to Milken and De Bartolo are a clear demonstration of class justice, in which billionaires are effectively above the law. As one news report noted, there are only 600 billionaires in the United States, very few of them face trial and conviction, let alone jail time, and Trump has now pardoned three of them, including last year’s clemency for media mogul Conrad Black—author of a fawning pro-Trump volume—who served nearly two years in prison for fraud and embezzlement. Milken was one of the most important actors in the financialization of the US economy, devising “junk bonds”—high-risk, high-return corporate securities that became a spearhead in the employer offensive against the working class throughout the 1980s and beyond. Hedge funds and private equity firms used junk bonds to finance leveraged buyouts of companies and proceed to loot pension funds, slash wages and benefits, and squeeze every penny of profit out of what frequently became empty shells. In the process, Milken himself amassed a huge fortune, including a then unprecedented income of $550 million in 1987, while running a unit of Drexel Burnham Lambert, a second-tier Wall Street firm that rocketed to prominence in that decade. These operations were portrayed in such books as Den of Thieves and films like Wall Street, whose lead character, Gordon Gekko, was modeled after Milken’s partner-in-crime Ivan Boesky. After pleading guilty to 10 counts of financial fraud in 1990, Milken served less than two years at a “Club Fed” luxury prison for the rich. He paid fines and restitution of $600 million, which barely made a dent in his multi-billion-dollar fortune. Trump’s pardon message paid tribute to Milken’s endowment of various medical charities and cancer research and hailed him as “one of America’s greatest financiers.” De Bartolo was charged with paying a $400,000 bribe in $100 bills to Louisiana Governor Edwin Edwards, a Democrat, in return for state government approval of a riverboat gambling project in which he had invested. Edwards went to prison, while De Bartolo served no time but had to transfer ownership of the 49ers to his sister. His nephew now runs the franchise. The National Football League inducted De Bartolo into its Hall of Fame despite the criminal conviction.
Trump just granted clemency to 11 people. Here's a look at each. – CNNPolitics -President Donald Trump on Tuesday granted clemency to 11 individuals, using his presidential pardon power to political advantage in many highly politically sensitive cases. The wave of seven pardons and four commutations, some of which Trump has been considering for years, came amid a post-impeachment flurry of presidential prerogative, from ridding his team of aides he deemed disloyal to flagrantly inserting himself into Justice Department matters. The White House did not provide evidence of a detailed pardon process conducted through the Justice Department, and the President did not explain his decisions at length. But Trump called one of the sentences "ridiculous" and said he relied on recommendations from others to make the decisions."These are all people that you have to see the recommendations. I rely on recommendations, very importantly," he told reporters at Andrews Air Force Base before departing for a western swing Tuesday afternoon.The 11 individuals included convicted white-collar criminals and the former Illinois governor accused of attempting to sell a US senate seat. Here are the individuals who received clemency:
- Trump commuted the sentence of former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich, a Democrat and former contestant on "Celebrity Apprentice" who served eight years of a 14-year sentence for the pay-for-play charges. He was released from prison Tuesday.
- Trump granted clemency to former San Francisco 49ers team owner Eddie DeBartolo. DeBartolo pleaded guilty in 1998 to failing to report a felony in a bribery case, which led to former Louisiana Gov. Edwin W. Edwards getting sent to federal prison.
- Trump granted a pardon to legendary 1980s junk bond king Michael Milken, who served 22 months of a 10year prison sentence for violating securities laws and has since become a prominent philanthropist. Milken rose to prominence on Wall Street in the 1980s as the head of the high-yield bond department, also known as junk bonds, at the now defunct firm Drexel Burnham Lambert.
- Trump pardoned former New York police commissioner Bernie Kerik, who once served three years in federal prison for charges including tax fraud and lying to officials. Kerik was nominated as homeland security secretary by President George W. Bush but withdrew from consideration due to potential tax violations.
- Trump issued a pardon to Ariel Friedler, a software entrepreneur who pled guilty to conspiracy to access a protected computer without authorization and served two months in prison, according to a White House statement.
- Trump granted clemency to Paul Pogue, owner of a construction company and Republican political donor, who was sentenced to three years of probation for underpaying his taxes by approximately 10% over a three year period.
- Trump pardoned David Safavian, a former Republican lobbyist and lawyer, who served as an official in President George W. Bush's administration. Safavian was sentenced to one year in prison in 2009 for obstructing an investigation and making false statements in connection to a former lobbyist, Jack Abramoff, during his time at the General Services Administration.
- The President pardoned Angela Stanton, an author, television personality, and motivational speaker, for her involvement in a stolen vehicle ring in 2007, for which she served six months of home confinement.
- Trump commuted the sentence of Tynice Nichole Hall, after she served almost 14 years for drug-related charges. Hall was convicted on charges to distribute, possess, and manufacture crack cocaine, as well as possession of firearms, per the Justice Department.
- Trump commuted the sentence of Crystal Munoz, who served 12 years in prison for marijuana-related charges. In 2008, Munoz was found guilty and sentenced to conspiracy to possess with intent to distribute marijuana, according to court records.
- The President commuted the 35-year prison sentence of Judith Negron for her role in a $205 million Medicare fraud scheme. Negron, a minority-owner of a mental health care company in Miami, Florida, was found guilty in 2011 on multiple counts of health care fraud and money laundering.
Trump offered to pardon Assange if he denied Russia helped leak Democrats' emails: lawyer – (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump offered to pardon WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange if he said that Russia had nothing to do with WikiLeaks’ publication of Democratic Party emails in 2016, a London court heard on Wednesday. Assange appeared by videolink from prison as lawyers discussed the management of his hearing next week to decide whether he should be extradited to the United States. At Westminster Magistrates’ Court, Assange’s barrister, Edward Fitzgerald, referred to a witness statement by former Republican U.S. Representative Dana Rohrabacher who visited Assange in 2017, saying he had been sent by the president to offer a pardon. The pardon would come on the condition that Assange say the Russians were not involved in the email leak that damaged Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign in 2016 against Trump, Rohrabacher’s statement said. A White House spokeswoman, Stephanie Grisham, denied the assertion. “The president barely knows Dana Rohrabacher other than he’s an ex-congressman. He’s never spoken to him on this subject or almost any subject. It is a complete fabrication and a total lie,” she said.
NSA whistleblower petitions Trump for clemency The Hill - Reality Winner, the National Security Agency (NSA) whistleblower jailed for leaking classified information on Russia’s interference in the 2016 election, petitioned President Trump for clemency Monday. Winner's attorney Alison Grinter said in a press conference in Dallas that she will submit the petition to the federal office of the pardon attorney, who advises the president on pardons. She also plans to send 4,500 letters of support, including ones from privacy and free press advocates, according to The Intercept. Winner was sentenced to five years and three months starting in August 2018 after admitting to giving classified information about Russia’s attempts to hack local elections before the 2016 election to an investigative news website, The Guardian reported.“Our national healing process cannot begin until we forgive our truth-tellers and begin the job of rebuilding what was taken from us: election security, accountability for those who endeavor to undermine our democracy; and safeguarding the American right to government by and for the people,” Grinter said at the conference. “None of this can begin in earnest while we are still punishing those who tell us the truth.”The petition alleges that Winner's imprisonment is “costly, unnecessary to protect the public, burdensome to her health and wellbeing, and not commensurate with the severity of her offense.” The president previously commented on Winner’s sentencing in an August 2018 tweet, in which he specifically criticized then-Attorney General Jeff Sessions and called Winner’s crimes “‘small potatoes’ compared to what Hillary Clinton did," in an apparent reference to the private email server Clinton kept as secretary of State.
Roger Stone sentenced to over 3 years in prison as judge slams him for ‘covering up for’ Trump – A federal judge sentenced President Donald Trump’s friend, the longtime Republican operative Roger Stone, to more than 3 years in prison on Thursday for lying to Congress and tampering with a witness in an effort to protect Trump.“He was not prosecuted, as some have complained, for standing up for the president, he was prosecuted for covering up for the president,” said Judge Amy Berman Jackson about Stone, who showed no visible emotion when he was sentenced in U.S District Court in Washington, D.C.“The truth still exists, the truth still matters. Roger Stone’s insistence that it doesn’t ... are a threat to our most fundamental institutions,” Jackson said in a blistering denunciation of Stone, who lied about efforts to obtain damaging emails related to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 Democratic presidential campaign that were stolen by Russian agents.The judge said that Stone’s crimes should arouse “dismay and disgust” that “transcend” political affiliation, before ordering him to serve 40 months in prison, pay a $20,000 fine, spend two years of supervised release and perform 250 hours of community service.But Stone, 67, will not have to serve that sentence just yet — and possibly not ever.The judge suspended imposition of all of the punishments pending her ruling on a request by Stone for a new trial on the grounds of alleged misconduct by a juror for his trial last fall. If Jackson approves that request — which was spurred by revelations that the jury forewoman had posted messages critical of Trump on Twitter — the sentence that the judge announced Thursday will be void.
FBI Raids Business Tied To James Biden Influence-Peddling -The FBI raided the home of a CEO of a bankrupt hospital chain last month along with one of its Pennsylvania hospitals central to influence-peddling accusations against Joe Biden's brother, James, according to RealClearInvestigations. The CEO, Grant White, was accused in a Kentucky bankruptcy court filing by the trustee of having "grossly mismanaged" Florida-based Americore holdings, which acquires and manages rural hospitals. According to the filing, White "has not operated the hospitals in a manner that is consistent with public safety," and "improperly siphoned money from the Debtors for his personal benefit." In December, the firm declared bankruptcy. On January 29, the FBI raided White's home, and one of Americore's hospitals - Ellwood City Medical Center, the next day. One week later, the Kentucky court granted a motion to remove White as CEO. Last Summer, White and James Biden were accused of fraud in a lawsuit, along with Biden's partner, hedge fund manager Michael Lewitt. The lawsuit alleges that James Biden had a prominent role in the company. One exhibit filed in the lawsuit is a photograph of an Americore business card that Biden reportedly handed out listing him as a “principal” in the company. Frey alleges that when Diverse Medical Management and Americore were in talks to merge, Jim Biden promised to exploit his brother’s political influence as vice president to attract international investors and make the venture successful. –RCI "Jim [Biden] told me. Don’t worry every time someone threatens to sue you you’re with us now nobody is gonna touch you," Lewitt allegedly bragged over a text message to Frey, who says he was worried about legal liability to his firm over an acquisition. "It was Frey’s understanding that Lewitt was implying that DMM [Diverse Medical Management] was 'protected' because of Jim Biden’s connections." The lawsuit also alleges that after failing to deliver on several promises made to Frey and Azzam, Biden took control of their dealings with Americore. “Biden instructed that Plaintiffs should no longer speak with Americore and White, but instead should deal exclusively with the Investor Defendants and their respective agents going forward, who would ensure that Plaintiffs’ model would find its way into hospitals and thrive,” the lawsuit says. -RCIBiden and the other defendants are accused of pushing Frey and Azzam to take out loans for the purchase of failing rural hospitals they wanted to revive - based on assurances that they would be paid back when Biden helped secure investments from one of Turkey's largest conglomerates, Dogan Holding.
The Oligarch Stage of the American Disease: Bloomberg Edition - So, Michael Bloomberg has spent 300 million, and by some polling, is now tied for second place in the Democratic primaries with Joe Biden, whose numbers are collapsing. Bloomberg is worth about 63 billion dollars.He entered the race to defeat Sanders. He considered entering the race in 2016 until it became clear that Clinton would be the nominee.This makes perfect sense, because Sanders tax plan will cost him billions. He can spend 10 times as much as he has, and it will still be a good investment. The thing about Trump was always that he was a symptom of a disease. It’s hard to say exactly when the disease started, but serious symptoms started showing up after the elections of Reagan and Thatcher. Rates of wage increases collapsed, stock markets and other asset prices rose much faster than inflation, regulations were gutted, people were thrown in jail at a ferocious rate and unions were smashed. Inequality took off, and over time multiple billionaires were created. They used their money to buy politicians, and thru politicians to buy policy. Tax rates on corporations and rich people and estates and so on were slashed to the bone. Subsidies for the rich were increased, while subsidies for the poor and middle class were, in relative terms, cut. The Federal Reserve (all of whose governors are political appointees), acted aggressively to keep wage increases at or under inflation, and targeted inflation rather than job growth. Good working class and many middle class jobs were off-shored and outsourced. Some of these processes had started before Reagan, such as offshoring and cutting top marginal tax rates (JFK foolishly did so, but then he was the son of an oligarch), but they went into overdrive after 1980. So the oligarchs, aided by the huge concentration of companies into oligopolies, have come to have or control vast amounts of wealth. They got money defined as free speech, and now that the political class has proven incapable of handling a left wing populist, an oligarch is stepping directly in because his class’s lackeys, like Biden and Buttigieg and indeed most of the field, are incompetent. Bloomberg is an oligarch. He’s racist, sexist and arrogant. He had New York’s laws changed so he could have a third term. He is competent and ruthless. In most respects he is far more dangerous than Trump even though he is for something the left likes, like birth and gun control. Trump is good at demagoguery, but he isn’t a competent executive. Bloomberg IS a competent executive. As he joked when asked about having two billionaires in the election, “who’s the other one?” My guess is that Bloomberg can’t win except thru a brokered convention. The plan may be to deny Sanders an outright majority, then combine against him. Remember that the Clintons still have the most power over the Democratic establishment, and Hilary hates Sanders with a vindictive passion while she’s on good terms with Bloomberg. Obama, who also still has power and influence, seems more ambivalent, but he’s never liked the left. On the other hand, reports are that he’s dispassionate and recognizes that denying the vote leader the nomination will damage the party.
Bloomberg quietly plotting brokered convention strategy — Mike Bloomberg is privately lobbying Democratic Party officials and donors allied with his moderate opponents to flip their allegiance to him — and block Bernie Sanders — in the event of a brokered national convention. The effort, largely executed by Bloomberg’s senior state-level advisers in recent weeks, attempts to prime Bloomberg for a second-ballot contest at the Democratic National Convention in July by poaching supporters of Joe Biden and other moderate Democrats, according to two Democratic strategists familiar with the talks and unaffiliated with Bloomberg. The outreach has involved meetings and telephone calls with supporters of Biden and Pete Buttigieg — as well as uncommitted DNC members — in Virginia, Texas, Florida, Oklahoma and North Carolina, according to one of the strategists who participated in meetings and calls. With Sanders’ emergence as the frontrunner in the presidential primary, Democrats in those states have recently raised the prospect that the democratic socialist could be a top-of-the-ticket liability. “There’s a whole operation going on, which is genius,” said one of the strategists, who is unaffiliated with any campaign. “And it’s going to help them win on the second ballot … They’re telling them that’s their strategy.” It’s a presumptuous play for a candidate who hasn’t yet won a delegate or even appeared on a ballot. And it could also bring havoc to the convention, raising the prospect of party insiders delivering the nomination to a billionaire over a progressive populist. Other candidates have quietly been in contact for months with superdelegates — the DNC members, members of Congress and other party officials who cannot vote on the first ballot at a contested national convention — but none have showcased it as a feature of their campaign, as Hillary Clinton did in 2016. Asked about Bloomberg’s efforts, spokeswoman Julie Wood said Thursday, “We have an enormous apparatus that is constantly reaching out to all types of people for support and to explain why we think Mike is the best candidate to take on Donald Trump." The rule prohibiting superdelegates, or automatic delegates, from voting on the first ballot of a contested convention was instituted only after the last convention, which followed a primary in which superdelegates overwhelmingly sided against Sanders and with the establishment-oriented Clinton.
Bloomberg’s Plan for Reskilling America: The Quid without the Pro Quo -- The Intercept usefully reports Michael Bloomberg’s proposals for higher education, focusing on plans to upgrade workforce skills along the lines desired by employers. Here’s the selection they excerpted that covers this, worth reading carefully: […] There’s a lot here that would be useful to businesses located in the US if they want to take advantage of it: money for vocational degrees geared to business needs, improved credentialing for these degrees, and support for internships and similar on-the-job training programs. As the language of the press prelease makes clear, businesses would play a determining role in deciding what is worthy of being learned, how instruction and work experience would be carried out, what criteria would be used to ascertain skill acquisition, and how credentials would be standardized for use in an economy where workers primarily move horizontally across employers. Some of this is based on a partial reading of the German apprenticeship system, where businesses work closely with education and training institutions to promote similar types of skills. So far so good. At the risk of being labeled a billionaire’s stooge, I think all of this is worth doing. Societies need lots of abilities that aren’t found in books, and lots of people are more oriented to this type of learning than the standard-model higher ed classroom. Let’s do it. But delivering an improved American workforce to business without delivering business to the American people is pure exploitation. Consider again how Germany does it. Most of the workers who go through the apprenticeship system are unionized. (How does Mike feel about that?) Unions are nearly coequal partners in establishing, overseeing and updating the apprenticeship system, like it used to be with the skilled trades in the US when the construction sector was mostly union. Large firms in Germany are required to allot half (minus one) of their supervisory board seats to worker representatives; smaller firms get most of their funding from public and cooperative banks which set limits on how exploitative they can be. And in my view, Germany doesn’t go far enough. There should be a requirement that all firms that draw on publicly subsidized skill development also emplace publicly-appointed educational professionals in supervisory positions, either on the board or in top management. Businesses need to contribute to other social goals too. This is not just a matter of being regulated so they won’t do egregious harm, necessary as this is, but also taking positive steps to solve pressing social problems. There should be representation of environmental, regional, social equality and other interests on boards as well, something the nonprofit sector has experimented with for decades. Bloomberg wants Americans to serve business interests. That would be fine if business interests also served Americans and were accountable to them.
Greater Idaho - Conservatives In Oregon Want 22 Rural Counties To Secede And Become Part Of Idaho - Is the state of Idaho going to get a whole lot bigger? A group known as Greater Idaho is pushing for rural counties in Oregon and northern California to secede and become part of the state of Idaho. In fact, as you will see below, this effort has actually been endorsed by some of the top Republicans in the Oregon legislature. Today, the Oregon state government is completely and utterly dominated by the left, and due to the demographics of the state that is not likely to change any time soon. So conservatives in rural areas that are deeply upset over the direction of the state essentially have just two options. They can either move to a more conservative state, or they can attempt to redraw state lines. Of course attempting to redraw state lines is a very complicated process, but at this point conservatives in Oregon are so fed up with the state legislature that they have decided to push ahead with this effort.In fact, it is being reported that signatures are being collected right now in order to “put the proposal on ballots in November”…Frustrated by liberal policies, some Oregon residents petitioned to leave the state – by moving the border with Idaho westward.The movement secured initial approval from two counties and aims to get enough signatures to put the proposal on ballots in November, according to the group called Greater Idaho.This is a very viable political movement, and it will be quite interesting to see where this goes.For years, rural counties in Oregon have felt shortchanged by a state legislature that is dominated by the Portland area, and things have finally come to a breaking point. One of the chief organizers of this movement, Mike McCarter, says that this secession push “is our last resort”…“Rural counties have become increasingly outraged by laws coming out of the Oregon Legislature that threaten our livelihoods, our industries, our wallet, our gun rights, and our values,” Mike McCarter, one of the chief petitioners, said in a news release. “We tried voting those legislators out, but rural Oregon is outnumbered and our voices are now ignored. This is our last resort.” Initial efforts are focused on just a few counties, but eventually the goal of Greater Idaho is to get dozens of counties in Oregon and northern California to secede.
McClatchy newspaper chain files for bankruptcy - The major US newspaper chain McClatchy, which has operated since 1857, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on Thursday. New York City-based hedge fund Chatham Asset Management will take over the publisher, which producers 30 newspapers including the Kansas City Star, Miami Herald and Sacramento Bee, which have each won numerous awards for their investigative reporting. McClatchy announced that it plans to restructure its pension obligations and address $700 million in debt at its bankruptcy hearings. It incurred significant debt after it acquired publisher Knight Ridder for $4.5 billion in 2006, just before the 2008 economic crisis which contributed to a significant reduction in revenue from subscription sales. Chatham’s holdings were valued over $4 billion dollars in 2019 and include principal ownership of tabloid publisher American Media, parent of the National Enquirer. The hedge fund’s founder Anthony Melchiorre is known for his ruthless business tactics. American Media was described in Fortune by Chatham investor and part-owner Leon Cooperman as “scrappy” and “[not] afraid of litigation to defend their investments,” and that their primary aim is “to make money for their clients”—that is, the US corporate and financial ruling elite. Chatham’s planned takeover of McClatchy will mean that the vast majority of US news production will be controlled by financial firms, according to media analyst Ken Doctor. Currently, Gannett, the world’s largest newspaper media chain, is owned by private equity behemoth Fortress Investment Group. Gannett currently publishes USA Today, the Detroit Free Press and the Indianapolis Star among others. Another giant publisher, MediaNews Group, is controlled by Alden Capital, another New York-based hedge fund. MediaNews Group publishes the Denver Post and San Jose Mercury and announced in late 2019 that it had become the largest shareholder of the Tribune Company, which publishes the Chicago Tribune and several other major daily newspapers.
The Death Of Free Speech: Zuckerberg Asks Governments For Instructions On "What Discourse Should Be Allowed" - Jonathan Turley - I have written for years on the effort of European countries to expand their crackdown on free speech globally through restrictions on social media and Internet speech. It appears that Facebook chief executive Mark Zuckerberg has relented in what may prove the death knell for free speech in the West. Zuckerberg seems to relent in asking governments for regulations stipulating what speech will be permitted on Facebook and other platforms. It is the ultimate victory of France, Germany, and England in their continuing attack on free expression though hate speech laws and speech regulation. Zuckerberg told an assembly of Western leaders Saturday at the Munich Security Conference that:“There should be more guidance and regulation from the states on basically - take political advertising as an example - what discourse should be allowed?” He did add: “Or, on the balance of free expression and some things that people call harmful expression, where do you draw the line?”The problem is that his comments were received as accepting that government will now dictate the range of free speech. What is missing is the bright line rule long maintained by the free speech community.As tragically demonstrated in France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, speech regulations inevitably expand with time. The desire to silence one’s critics becomes insatiable for both governments and individuals. Zuckerberg is facing great pressure, including from Democratic leaders in the United States, to regulate political speech and he seems to be moving away from the bright-line position against such regulation as a principle: “There are a lot of decisions in these areas that are really just balances between different social values. It’s about coming up with an answer that society feels is legitimate and that they can get behind and understand that you drew the line here on the balance of free expression and safety. It’s not just that there’s one right answer. People need to feel like, ‘OK, enough people weighed in, and that’s why the answer should be this, and we can get behind that.’” Instead, as the above exposes, he is accepting the fluid concept of “balanced” regulations that has always preceded expanding speech codes and criminalization.
Pay Up, Or We’ll Make Google Ban Your Ads -Krebs on Security -A new email-based extortion scheme apparently is making the rounds, targeting Web site owners serving banner ads through Google’s AdSense program. In this scam, the fraudsters demand bitcoin in exchange for a promise not to flood the publisher’s ads with so much bot and junk traffic that Google’s automated anti-fraud systems suspend the user’s AdSense account for suspicious traffic. Earlier this month, KrebsOnSecurity heard from a reader who maintains several sites that receive a fair amount of traffic. The message this reader shared began by quoting from an automated email Google’s systems might send if they detect your site is seeking to benefit from automated clicks. The message continues: “Very soon the warning notice from above will appear at the dashboard of your AdSense account undoubtedly! This will happen due to the fact that we’re about to flood your site with huge amount of direct bot generated web traffic with 100% bounce ratio and thousands of IP’s in rotation — a nightmare for every AdSense publisher. More also we’ll adjust our sophisticated bots to open, in endless cycle with different time duration, every AdSense banner which runs on your site.”The message goes on to warn that while the targeted site’s ad revenue will be briefly increased, “AdSense traffic assessment algorithms will detect very fast such a web traffic pattern as fraudulent.” “Next an ad serving limit will be placed on your publisher account and all the revenue will be refunded to advertisers. This means that the main source of profit for your site will be temporarily suspended. It will take some time, usually a month, for the AdSense to lift your ad ban, but if this happens we will have all the resources needed to flood your site again with bad quality web traffic which will lead to second AdSense ban that could be permanent!” The message demands $5,000 worth of bitcoin to forestall the attack. In this scam, the extortionists are likely betting that some publishers may see paying up as a cheaper alternative to having their main source of advertising revenue evaporate.
Jeffrey And I Had Everyone On Videotape Ghislaine Maxwell Reportedly Told Friend - Jeffrey Epstein's alleged 'madam' told a former acquaintance that she and the now-dead pedophile had "everything on videotape," according to The Telegraph. The acquaintance, socialite and distant relative to the royals Christina Oxenberg, said that Maxwell also told her that Epstein bought a private helicopter because commercial pilots were "eyes and ears" he did not need. She revealed she had spoken to the FBI about what she had been told. Ms Oxenberg, 57, first met Maxwell in the early 1990s and said she would never forget a conversation the pair once had in Maxwell’s home. “We were alone,” she said. “She said many things. All creepy. Unorthodox. Strange. I could not believe whatever she was saying was real. Stuff like: 'Jeffrey and I have everyone on videotape.’”... Maxwell has been accused by several alleged Epstein victims of both facilitating and participating in sexual crimes. She has vehemently denied the claims and has not been charged with any crimes in connection to Epstein's activities. If true, we wonder who exactly was taped?
Is partisanship seeping into bank regulators’ discourse?— Compared to more incendiary fights in the capital, bank regulatory debates are traditionally more banal — led by officials who strive for consensus and leave their disagreements in the backroom.But on recent policy issues ranging from the Volcker Rule to the Community Reinvestment Act, divisions among regulators have lately appeared sharper, more along political lines and more out in the open.“Regulators aren’t always interested in singing off of the same sheet of music,” said V. Gerard Comizio, senior counsel at Fried Frank and a former attorney at multiple regulatory agencies. “But at the agencies where you have boards and commissions, there now are harder edges to the disagreements.” The heightened discord was illustrated last month at a board meeting of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. to propose rolling back “covered fund” restrictions in the Volcker Rule. Martin Gruenberg — the Democratic-appointed FDIC board member and former chairman, who has opposed nearly all the regulatory relief measures issued during the Trump administration — spent nearly 20 minutes tearing into the proposal. That followed his 11-minute dissent on a final rule amending a disclosure requirement.Comptroller of the Currency Joseph Otting, who holds a seat on the FDIC board, had heard enough. He said the proposal would allow activities that were not intended to be targeted by the Volcker Rule. “Unlike my colleague on the board who has a tendency to cry wolf whenever we modify these rules to ensure that capital reaches American consumers and businesses, I feel these changes help to focus on the activities that present, really, the greatest dangers to our financial system," Otting said, looking at Gruenberg. The remark turned heads around the room and prompted Gruenberg to sit back in his chair, eyebrows raised.Such a comment directed at a policy opponent is commonplace in Congress, the mainstream press or social media. But the moment underscored what many see as a stark reality: the ability of the regulators to walk in lockstep is cracking.“For a long time, the banking agencies were immune from polarization,” said one former senior regulator who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “But this is a reflection of the climate — it’s a reflection of a current administration that’s comfortable trampling on norms.”
Strange Stuff on Wall Street: Big Job Cuts, Fed Bailout, Record Markets - Pam Martens - HSBC has become the latest bank with a big Wall Street footprint to announce job cuts. After announcing that its 2019 profits fell by about a third, it said it would cut 35,000 jobs over the next three years. Some of the job cuts are expected to fall within its investment banking business in the U.S.The HSBC news comes amid a steady drumbeat of similar news on Wall Street. In July of last year, another European bank with heavy derivative ties to Wall Street, Deutsche Bank, confirmed plans to cut 18,000 jobs. In the same month, Bloomberg Newsreported that Citigroup would be cutting hundreds of trading jobs. Then in September Commerzbank announced it would trim 4300 jobs. That news was followed by CNN reporting in December that Morgan Stanley would cut 1500 jobs.This is by no means an exhaustive list, but you get the picture. So here’s a quick IQ test. Find the two words in this sentence that don’t sound logical. “The situation is so bad on Wall Street that major trading houses are announcing big job cuts, the Fed is conducting a new bailout program by making hundreds of billions of dollars in cheap repo loans each week to the Wall Street trading houses, and the stock market is regularly setting new highs.” If you selected the words “new highs” you win the rational thinker award.Indeed, in a rational world, big Wall Street job cuts and the need for massive bailout money from the Fed would not correlate with a stock market regularly setting new highs. But Wall Street no longer exists in a rational universe. It exists in an alternative universe where Wall Street banks are allowed to put out a buy recommendation on a company and then trade its stock in their own Dark Pools; where trillions of dollars of risky stock derivatives are held by the country’s largest federally-insured bank; where initial public offerings of deeply indebted companies that have never made a dime of profits are hustled for listing on the nation’s stock exchanges; and where Wall Street is allowed by the U.S. Supreme Court to run a private justice system which draws an opaque curtain around the kinds of charges aggrieved investors are making against these Wall Street banks. As we have stated previously, this is not so much a stock market as it is an institutionalized wealth transfer system moving money from the pockets of the 99 percent to the 1 percent who have concocted this market structure. Millions of Americans are grappling with how to put food on their table while paying their 17 percent interest rate on their credit cards from these same Wall Street banks that are being provided loans from the New York Fed daily at 1.60 percent.
Paul Krugman Returns to Perpetuating the Big Lie for Wall Street -- Pam Martens -- Paul Krugman, the New York Times columnist who won the 2008 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, is back to pedaling his Big Lie that Wall Street banks were not responsible for the financial crash of 2008 or the ensuing housing crash. This time he’s told such a doozie of a lie that there is no longer any doubt that he’s on a mission to restore Wall Street’s credibility, even if he has to rewrite the history of the financial crash and every official report that’s been published on it.The latest Big Lie from Krugman appeared in yesterday’s print edition but first appeared in the digital edition on Monday under a different headline, “Have Zombies Eaten Bloomberg’s and Buttigieg’s Brains?” In a very clever sleight of hand, Krugman is complaining, correctly so, about the fact that presidential candidate Michael Bloomberg has adopted a right-wing mantra in attempting to place the blame for the housing bust, that accompanied the Wall Street collapse, on liberals who “caused the crisis by forcing poor innocent bankers to lend money to people of color….” (Krugman’s complaint about Buttigieg is that he’s too obsessed with the $23 trillion national debt – a significant part of which, of course, resulted from attempting to recover from the Wall Street collapse.) As Krugman asserts his superiority on facts versus Bloomberg, he throws out this whopper of a lie about the 2008 financial crash: “The surge in bad loans came neither from government-sponsored agencies nor from regulated banks, but from unregulated mortgage originators.” Every official report on the Wall Street collapse has revealed the following: that Wall Street banks were fueling the subprime mortgage loans because they wanted the fat underwriting fees to bundle the loans and securitize them. Some Wall Street banks, like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup, even used their insider knowledge of just how bad the loans were to bet against them (make short bets). The crisis was further deepened by the fact that these same Wall Street banks were paying for rating agencies like Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s to give triple-A ratings to securitizations that the banks knew were likely to collapse.Why does Krugman think the U.S. Department of Justice and other regulators fined JPMorgan Chase, the largest regulated bank in the country, $13 billion for its sales of toxic subprime mortgages?
Exclusive: Barclays installs Big Brother-style spyware on employees’ computers - Barclays has been criticised by HR experts and privacy campaigners after the bank installed “Big Brother” employee monitoring software in its London headquarters.Introduced as a pilot last week, the technology monitors Barclays workers’ activity on their computers, and in some instances admonishes staff in daily updates to them if they are not deemed to have been active enough — which is described as being in “the zone”. The system tells staff to “avoid breaks” as it monitors their productivity in real-time, and records activities such as toilet visits as “unaccounted activity”. A whistleblower at the banking giant told City A.M. that “the stress this is causing is beyond belief” and that it “shows an utter disregard for employee wellbeing”. “Employees are worried to step away from their desks, have full lunch breaks, take bathroom breaks or even get up for water as we are not aware of the repercussions this might have on our statistics,” they added.
Wells Fargo Pays $3 Billion To Settle Illicit Conduct Of Staggering Scope & Duration = Wells Fargo has agreed to pay $3 billion to settle U.S. investigations into more than a decade of widespread consumer abuses under a deal that lets the scandal-ridden bank avoid criminal charges. The deal resolves civil and criminal investigations. It includes a so-called deferred prosecution agreement, where the Justice Department files, but doesn't immediately pursue, criminal charges. It will eventually dismiss them if the bank satisfies the government's requirements, including its continued cooperation with further government investigations, over the next three years. The accord also resolves a complaint by the Securities and Exchange Commission. “Our settlement with Wells Fargo, and the $3 billion criminal monetary penalty imposed on the bank, go far beyond ‘the cost of doing business,’” U.S. Attorney Andrew Murray for the Western District of North Carolina said in a statement. “They are appropriate given the staggering size, scope and duration of Wells Fargo’s illicit conduct.” All of which means - nobody goes to jail!
There Was a Flash Crash in the Stock Market Yesterday: Here’s Why You Should Be Very Concerned - Pam Martens - At 10:52 a.m. yesterday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average which was trading at a level of 29,348, began a bungee-style plunge. By 11:32 a.m. the market landed with a thud at a level of 29,013. Then the stock market began an equally inexplicable climb, closing the day down just 128 points. This is what is known as a “Flash Crash,” a sudden plunge in the market with no reliable explanation. No one on Wall Street has yet to offer a convincing explanation for the plunge. An early attempt to pass it off to worries about the coronavirus was easily dispelled because the news report of rising infections from the virus came much earlier than the plunge in the market.Our chart research also shows that the plunge was not related to the coronavirus because Procter & Gamble, a component of the Dow which is having serious supply chain disruptions from the coronavirus, didn’t participate in the Flash Crash in any material way.Goldman Sachs, however, also a component of the Dow, not only participated in the Flash Crash but began its own plunge at the market’s open, recovered somewhat, and then began the Flash Crash at the same time as the Dow – but much more sharply. Why was Goldman selling off yesterday? Because one of its major competitors on Wall Street, Morgan Stanley, had brazenly announced before the market opened that it was using its stock to the tune of $13 billion to buy the discount broker, E*Trade, at a premium of 30 percent to its market value. Goldman Sachs, currently under a criminal probe by the Justice Department for its role in the Malaysia 1MDB bribery and embezzlement scandal, is not likely to be given any green light by the U.S. Department of Justice to expand its footprint. Thus, it is likely to far further behind its competitors – or so the thinking goes.The underlying math of the Morgan Stanley deal tells the whole story: E*Trade has 5.2 million clients but only $360 billion in assets. Morgan Stanley, on the other hand, has just 3 million clients but $2.7 trillion in assets. In other words, Morgan Stanley, like every other major Wall Street firm, caters to the high net worth individual while E*Trade is not so picky.Most of the big Wall Street banks have been culling their customer ranks by kicking smaller accounts out of their investment advisors’ hands and moving them to a manned phone bank. That’s the kind of disdain that Wall Street firms have for those with less than a high net worth. So why would Morgan Stanley be so desperate that it would buy a discount broker? Because these are desperate times on Wall Street and every major firm is in need of more trades and the ability to show shareholders that its assets under management are increasing – even if they have to overpay to obtain those assets. Why this Morgan Stanley buyout is of major concern to the average American is that Morgan Stanley is already too big and too dangerous. Morgan Stanley is one of 30 global banks that are known as G-SIBs – Global Systemically Important Banks. That means that they are so big and interconnected to other banks that if they implode they could start a financial contagion like 2008.
Q4 Earnings Shocker- Excluding The FAAMGs, S&P500 Net Income Is Down 7.5% - Yesterday we showed readers a remarkable statistic from the latest Weekly Kickstart report by Goldman's David Kostin: according to the chief Goldman US equity strategist, whereas modest S&P500 earnings growth in Q4 was set to finally end a 4 quarters-streak of negative EPS growth, with S&P earnings per share set to rise by a modest 2% Y/Y, virtually all of the earnings upside came from just the top 5 biggest companies: Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and Google (aka FAAMG), which collectively saw their EPS rise by a whopping 16% (mostly on the back of record stock buybacks which reduced the number of shares outstanding thus lowering the denominator in the EPS calculation). Without them, S&P earnings were flat, while earnings for small-cap companies represented by the Russell 2000 were actually down a whopping 7% Y/Y, prompting us to say that "It's "The 1%" vs Everyone Else: FAAMG Earnings Soar As Russell 2000 EPS Growth Craters." One day later, on Monday morning, SocGen's Andrew Lapthorne has further refined Goldman's analysis, and come up with an even more jarring conclusion on corporate profitability, one which avoids the impact of buybacks on artificially inflating EPS by simply looking at Net Income. What he founds is that "despite strong markets last year, net income barely moved, with a rise of just 0.3%. More worrying is without the Big 5 companies (Microsoft, Alphabet, Apple, Amazon and Facebook), net income fell 7.5%", which further underscores our recent discussion of how bifurcated the market is becoming between the handful of mega-caps, i.e., the "other 1%", and the "other" 495 companies in the S&P. What is behind this disappointing result for virtually all publicly traded companies with the exception of a handful of mega techs? According to Lapthorne, "this is due to higher costs (SG&A) and a significant rise in both interest expense and taxes" with the SocGen strategist noting "that interest costs are rising so quickly despite low interest rates is remarkable and a challenge to policymakers." His bottom line is a carbon copy replica of what we have said on countless prior occasions, namely that "with all this debt, higher interest rates seem no longer feasible", something which even the Fed has now figured out.
Regulators extend CRA comment period, bowing to congressional pressure— Regulators have extended the amount of time the public has to respond to a proposal to modernize the Community Reinvestment Act, a sudden victory for Democratic lawmakers and community groups. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. announced a 30-day extension, pushing the deadline back to April 8.“The FDIC and OCC have now determined that a 30-day extension of the comment period is appropriate,” regulators said in a joint press release Wednesday, less than a month before the old deadline was set to close. Just after the CRA proposal was released in December, community groups, Democratic lawmakers and small banks had called on regulators to extend the 60-day comment period, citing the document’s significant complexity and the intense public interest in reforming CRA. Democratic lawmakers, led by House Financial Services Chairman Maxine Waters, pressed the OCC and FDIC to extend the comment period. But Comptroller of the Currency Joseph Otting later rejected those appeals. He argued the proposal’s delayed publication in the Federal Register until after the winter holidays resulted effectively in an 85-day comment period. "I think it's plenty of time," Otting said in January. "We're happy to sit down with anybody that wants to come in if they don't understand parts of the proposal."Those comments had fueled some speculation that regulators were racing to beat the clock that could have subjected a final CRA rule to a review by lawmakers after the 2020 election under the Congressional Review Act.
Black Knight's First Look: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in January, Lowest Level on Record --From Black Knight: Black Knight’s First Look: Mortgage Delinquencies Fall to Lowest Level on Record; January Sees Strongest Decline in More Than a Year:• Mortgage delinquencies fell by more than 5% in January, hitting their lowest level on record dating back to 2000
• January’s 14% year-over-year decline is the strongest in more than 12 months, with the rate of improvement picking up noticeably in recent months
• There are now fewer than 2 million homeowners past due on their mortgages or in active foreclosure, the fewest since March 2005
• Despite the decline in delinquencies, foreclosure starts edged upward in January, but remain nearly 15% below last year’s levels
• The number of loans in active foreclosure remained relatively flat for the month (+1,000 properties in foreclosure), and down 19,000 from the same time last year, leaving the national foreclosure rate unchanged
• Though falling by 15% in January, prepayment activity remains 113% above last year’s levels
According to Black Knight's First Look report for January, the percent of loans delinquent decreased in January compared to December, and decreased 14.2% year-over-year.
The percent of loans in the foreclosure process increased slightly in January, and were down 9.2% over the last year.
Black Knight reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) was 3.22% in December, down from 3.40% in December.
The percent of loans in the foreclosure process was unchanged at 0.46% from 0.46% in December.
Fannie and Freddie: REO inventory declined in Q4, Down 17% Year-over-year - Fannie and Freddie earlier reported results last week for Q4 2019. Here is some information on Real Estate Owned (REOs).
Freddie Mac reported the number of REO declined to 4,989 at the end of Q4 2019 compared to 7,100 at the end of Q4 2018. For Freddie, this is down 93% from the 74,897 peak number of REOs in Q3 2010. Fannie Mae reported the number of REO declined to 17,501 at the end of Q4 2019 compared to 20,156 at the end of Q4 2018. For Fannie, this is down 90% from the 166,787 peak number of REOs in Q3 2010. Here is a graph of Fannie and Freddie Real Estate Owned (REO). REO inventory decreased in Q4 2019, and combined inventory is down 17% year-over-year. This is close to normal levels of REOs.
Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey - Mortgage applications decreased 6.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 14, 2020.... The Refinance Index decreased 8 percent from the previous week and was 165 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 10 percent higher than the same week one year ago...“Treasury yields moved slightly higher last week, despite uncertainty surrounding the economic impact from the spread of the coronavirus. The 30-year fixed mortgage increased five basis points to 3.77 percent as a result, causing refinance applications – driven by a 11 percent drop in applications for conventional refinances – to fall,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Even with an 8 percent decline, the refinance index was still at its third highest reading so far this year. Government refinance activity, which tends to lag movements in the conventional market, bucked the overall trend, as VA loan refinances jumped 23 percent.”Added Kan, “Purchase applications fell 3 percent last week, as there continues to be some pullback after a strong January. Activity was still 10 percent higher than a year ago, but too few options – especially at the lower portion of the market – are slowing some would-be buyers.” .. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($510,400 or less) increased to 3.77 percent from 3.72 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.28 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 5.46 million in January - From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Drop 1.3% in January: Existing-home sales declined in January, continuing a fluctuating pattern of monthly increases and declines, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Significant declines in the West region dragged down nationwide numbers, with the other three major U.S. regions reporting marginal – or no – changes last month. Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, decreased 1.3% from December to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.46 million in January. However, for the second straight month, overall sales substantially increased year-over-year, up 9.6% from a year ago (4.98 million in January 2019).....Total housing inventory at the end of January totaled 1.42 million units, up 2.2% from December, but down 10.7% from one year ago (1.59 million). The housing inventory level for January is the lowest level since 1999. Unsold inventory sits at a 3.1-month supply at the current sales pace, up from the 3.0-month figure recorded in December and down from the 3.8-month figure recorded in January 2019. This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993. Sales in January (5.46 million SAAR) were down 1.3% from last month, and were 9.6% above the January 2019 sales rate. The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes. Existing Home InventoryAccording to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.42 million in January from 1.39 million in December. Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer. The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory. Year-over-year Inventory Inventory was down 10.7% year-over-year in January compared to January 2019. Months of supply increased to 3.1 months in January. This was close to the consensus forecast. For existing home sales, a key number is inventory - and inventory is near record lows.
Comments on January Existing Home Sales - Earlier: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 5.46 million in January. A few key points:
1) Existing home sales were up 9.6% year-over-year (YoY) in January.
2) Inventory is very low, and was down 10.7% year-over-year (YoY) in January. Inventory always decreases sharply in December as people take their homes off the market for the holidays, and then inventory starts to increase in February and March.
3) Sales slumped at the end of 2018 and in January 2019 due to higher mortgage rates, the stock market selloff, and fears of an economic slowdown.
The comparison to January of last year will be the easiest for this year. Note that existing home sales picked up somewhat in the second half of 2019 as interest rates declined. The second graph shows existing home sales Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) in January (Red dashes), and the minimum and maximum for each year. Sales NSA in January (318,000) were the highest for January since 2017. Note that January sales (NSA) are always near the minimum for the year. The maximum is usually in June or July. Overall this was a solid report. The very low level of inventory will be something to watch in 2020.
Update: Real Estate Agent Boom and Bust - Way back in 2005, I posted a graph of the Real Estate Agent Boom. Here is another update to the graph. The graph shows the number of real estate licensees in California. The number of agents peaked at the end of 2007 (housing activity peaked in 2005, and prices in 2006). The number of salesperson's licenses is off 26% from the peak, and is increasing again (up 11% from low). The number of salesperson's licenses has increased to December 2004 levels. Brokers' licenses are off 14.3% from the peak and have fallen to December 2005 levels, and may be bottoming. We are seeing a pickup in Real Estate licensees in California, although the number of Brokers is mostly flat.
Economic Woes- 1-In-4 Renters Are Now Spending Over Half Their Income On Housing -- A new report from the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University calculates that 10.9 million renters spent more than 50% of their income on housing in 2018. That equates to one in four renters. Moreover, there were 6 million more cost-burdened renters in 2018 than in 2001. Households with incomes of at least $75,000 accounted for more than three-quarters of the growth in renters from 2010 to 2018. Affordable housing will continue to be more and more out of reach as long the government keeps getting in the way. Regulations and property taxes are a huge burden when it comes to affordable housing. According to Market Watch, a renter is cost-burdened when she or he must spend more than 30% of her income on housing costs and severely burdened when they spend more than half of their income on those expenses. The problem is much more predominant among lower-income Americans — 72% of renters earning less than $15,000 a year were severely burdened as of 2018, as were 43% of renters earning between $15,000 and $30,000. “Even as the overall share of cost-burdened renters has receded somewhat, the share of middle-income renters paying more than 30 percent of income for housing has steadily risen,” researchers wrote.Nearly 56% of renters earning between $30,000 and $45,000 a year were cost-burdened as of 2018, up 5.4 percentage points from 2011. That was the largest increase in the share of cost-burdened renters across any income band in the country. Among those who earn between $45,000 and $75,000 annually, this share increased 4.3 percentage points to 27%. The Pew Research Center defines the middle-income American household as a three-person family that earns between $45,200 and $135,600 annually. –Market Watch “The spread of cost burdens up the income scale coincides with the ongoing decline in lower-cost rentals,” researchers wrote. “While the improving economy has increased the share of middle-income renters, earnings growth has not caught up with the rise in rents.”
Housing Starts decreased to 1.567 Million Annual Rate in January - From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Privately‐owned housing starts in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,567,000. This is 3.6 percent below the revised December estimate of 1,626,000, but is 21.4 percent above the January 2019 rate of 1,291,000. Single‐family housing starts in January were at a rate of 1,010,000; this is 5.9 percent below the revised December figure of 1,073,000. The January rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 547,000. Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,551,000. This is 9.2 percent above the revised December rate of 1,420,000 and is 17.9 percent above the January 2019 rate of 1,316,000. Single‐family authorizations in January were at a rate of 987,000; this is 6.4 percent above the revised December figure of 928,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 522,000 in January.The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years.Multi-family starts (red, 2+ units) were up in January compared to December. Multi-family starts were up 71.3% year-over-year in January.Multi-family is volatile month-to-month, and had been mostly moving sideways the last several years. Single-family starts (blue) decreased in January, and were up 4.6% year-over-year. The second graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968.The second graph shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then eventual recovery (but still historically low).Total housing starts in January were well above expectations and revisions were positive.
Comments on January Housing Starts - Earlier: Housing Starts decreased to 1.567 Million Annual Rate in January Total housing starts in January were well above expectations and revisions to prior months were positive.The housing starts report showed starts were down 3.6% in January compared to December, and starts were up 21.4% year-over-year compared to January 2019. These were blow out numbers! Starts in December were at the highest level for starts since December 2006 (end of the bubble). However, the weather was very nice again in January (just like in December), and the weather probably had a significant impact on the seasonally adjusted housing starts number.The winter months ofDecember and January have the largest seasonal factors, so nice weather can really have an impact.Single family starts were up 4.6% year-over-year, and multi-family starts were up 71.3% YoY. This first graph shows the month to month comparison for total starts between 2019 (blue) and 2020 (red).Starts were up 21.4% in January compared to January 2019. For the year, starts were up 3.2% compared to 2018. Last year, in 2019, starts picked up in the 2nd half of the year, so the comparisons are easy early in the year. Below is an update to the graph comparing multi-family starts and completions. Since it usually takes over a year on average to complete a multi-family project, there is a lag between multi-family starts and completions. Completions are important because that is new supply added to the market, and starts are important because that is future new supply (units under construction is also important for employment). These graphs use a 12 month rolling total for NSA starts and completions. Multifamily Starts and completionsThe blue line is for multifamily starts and the red line is for multifamily completions. The rolling 12 month total for starts (blue line) increased steadily for several years following the great recession - but turned down, and has moved sideways recently. Completions (red line) had lagged behind - then completions caught up with starts- although starts are picking up a little again. Single family Starts and completionsThe second graph shows single family starts and completions. It usually only takes about 6 months between starting a single family home and completion - so the lines are much closer. The blue line is for single family starts and the red line is for single family completions. Note the relatively low level of single family starts and completions. The "wide bottom" was what I was forecasting following the recession, and now I expect some further increases in single family starts and completions.
New Residential Building Permits: 1.551M in January - The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for January new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.551M was an increase from a revised 1.420M in December and above the Investing.com forecast of 1.450M.Here is the opening of this morning's monthly report, including a note regarding revisions:Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,551,000. This is 9.2 percent (±2.1 percent) above the revised December rate of 1,420,000 and is 17.9 percent (±1.3 percent) above the January 2019 rate of 1,316,000. Single‐family authorizations in January were at a rate of 987,000; this is 6.4 percent (±2.5 percent) above the revised December figure of 928,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 522,000 in January. [link to report]Here is the complete historical series, which dates from 1960. Because of the extreme volatility of the monthly data points, a 6-month moving average has been included. Here is the data with a simple population adjustment. The Census Bureau's mid-month population estimates show substantial growth in the US population since 1960. Here is a chart of housing starts as a percent of the population. We've added a linear regression through the monthly data to highlight the trend.The extreme volatility of this monthly indicator is the rationale for paying more attention to its 6-month moving average than to its noisy monthly change. Over the complete data series, the absolute MoM average percent change is 4.4%. The MoM range minimum is -24.0% and the maximum is 33.9%.For visual confirmation of the volatility, here is a snapshot of the monthly percent change since 1990.
Building Permits Surge To 13 Year Highs Thanks To Warm Weather In Northeast - After December's surge in starts and tumble in permits, analysts expected a reversion in both in January's data and that is what happened with a huge 9.2% MoM spike in building permits (the most since June 2017) and housing starts dropped 3.6% MoM (though notably less than the 11.2% drop expected)... The spike in permits was driven by 34.6% surge in Northeast, but increases were seen in every region (Midwest +8.2%; South +8.0%, West +3.1%). This sent Building Permits to the highest level SAAR since March 2007... Source: Bloomberg Both single- and multi-family permits jumped... Additionally, there was a 77.6% Y/Y increase in multifamily starts and just 4.6% Y/Y increase in 1-unit housing... By region, new-home construction fell in the South and Midwest. Starts increased in the Northeast to the highest since June 2015 and climbed in the West the best level since the end of 2006. Clearly, mild weather played a role in both the December and January readings as warmer temperatures supported construction in months that typically slow homebuilding in areas like the Northeast.
NAHB: Builder Confidence Decreased to 74 in February -- The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 74, down from 75 in January. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor. From NAHB: Builder Confidence Remains Solid in February Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes edged one point lower to 74 in February, according to the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. The last three monthly readings mark the highest sentiment levels since December 2017. “Steady job growth, rising wages and low interest rates are fueling demand but builders are still grappling with increasing construction and development costs,” said NAHB Chairman Dean Mon. The HMI index gauging current sales conditions fell one point to 80, the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months was one point lower at 79 and the gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers also decreased one point to 57. Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast rose one point to 63, the Midwest increased one point to 67 and the South moved two points higher to 78. The West fell one point to 83.
AIA: "Architecture billings continue growth into 2020" - Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Architecture billings continue growth into 2020: Starting the year on a strong note, architecture firm billings strengthened slightly in January, according to a new report today from The American Institute of Architects (AIA). AIA’s Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score of 52.2 for January compared to 52.1 in December reflects an increase in design services provided by U.S. architecture firms (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). Indicators of work in the pipeline, including new project inquiries and new design contracts remained positive, posting scores of 57.9 and 56.0 respectively. “Despite the continued presence of volatility in the economy, design activity has begun to accelerate in recent months,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “Even with the ongoing challenges facing the nonresidential construction sector, this upturn points to at least modest growth over the coming year.” ...• Regional averages: South (56.7); West (52.1); Midwest (51.3); Northeast (45.3)
• Sector index breakdown: mixed practice (51.6); commercial/industrial (51.5); multi-family residential (51.2); institutional (51.1)
This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 52.2 in January, up from 52.1 in December. Anything above 50 indicates expansion in demand for architects' services. Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions. According to the AIA, there is an "approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending" on non-residential construction. This index has been positive for 8 of the previous 12 months, suggesting some increase in CRE investment in 2020.
January Producer Price Index: Core Final Demand Up 0.5% MoM - Today's release of the January Producer Price Index (PPI) for Final Demand was up 0.5% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, up from a 0.2% increase last month. It is at 2.1% year-over-year, up from 1.3% last month, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Core Final Demand (less food and energy) came in at 0.5% MoM, up from 0.1% the previous month and is up 1.7% YoY NSA. Investing.com MoM consensus forecasts were for 0.1% headline and 0.1% core. Here is the summary of the news release on Final Demand: The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.5 percent in January, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.2 percent in December and declined 0.1 percent in November. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index increased 2.1 percent for the 12 months ended in January, the largest advance since moving up 2.1 percent for the 12 months ended May 2019. In January, 90 percent of the increase in the final demand index is attributable to prices for final demand services, which climbed 0.7 percent. The index for final demand goods inched up 0.1 percent. Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 0.4 percent in January, the largest increase since a 0.4-percent rise in April 2019. For the 12 months ended in January, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 1.5 percent.More… The BLS shifted its focus to its new "Final Demand" series in 2014, a shift we support. However, the data for these series are only constructed back to November 2009 for Headline and April 2010 for Core. Since our focus is on longer-term trends, we continue to track the legacy Producer Price Index for Finished Goods, which the BLS also includes in their monthly updates. As this (older) overlay illustrates, the Final Demand and Finished Goods indexes are highly correlated. As the next chart shows, the Core Producer Price Index is far more volatile than the Core Consumer Price Index. For example, during the last recession producers were unable to pass cost increases to the consumer.
US producer prices post biggest gain in more than a year -- U.S. producer prices increased by the most in more than a year in January, boosted by rises in the costs of services such as healthcare and hotel accommodation. The Labor Department said on Wednesday its producer price index for final demand jumped 0.5% last month, the largest gain since October 2018, after climbing 0.2% in December.In the 12 months through January, the PPI advanced 2.1%, the biggest increase since May, after rising 1.3% in December.Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PPI gaining 0.1% in January and rising 1.6% on a year-on-year basis.Excluding the volatile food, energy and trade services components, producer prices increased 0.4%, the most since April, after rising 0.2% in December. The so-called core PPI increased 1.5% in the 12 months through January, matching December's rise.The government last week reported a pickup in core consumer prices in January, which led economists to expect firmer readings in the inflation measure tracked by the Federal Reserve for its 2% inflation target.Economists are forecasting that the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index gained 0.2% in January, which would raise the annual increase to 1.7%, also as last year's weak readings are dropping out of the calculation.The core PCE price index rose 1.6% on a year-on-year basis in December. In January, wholesale energy prices fell 0.7% after jumping 1.5% in December. They were pulled down by a 1.5% drop in gasoline prices, which followed a 4.2% acceleration in December.Goods prices edged up 0.1% last month after increasing 0.3% in December. Wholesale food prices gained 0.2% in January after falling 0.3% in the prior month. Core goods prices increased 0.3% last month. They gained 0.2% in December.The cost of services rebounded 0.7% in January, the most since October 2018, after being unchanged in the prior month. Services accounted for 90% of the increase in the PPI last month. The cost of healthcare services rebounded 0.6% last month. Portfolio management fees accelerated 2.3% after jumping 1.9% in December.Those healthcare and portfolio management costs feed into the core PCE price index. There were also increases in the costs of hotel accommodation and machinery and vehicle wholesaling.
US Producer Prices Rise At Fastest Pace In 9 Months As Service Costs Soar - US Producer Prices spike 0.5% MoM in January, sending the Final Demand data up 2.1% YoY -the hottest inflationary print since April 2019. Producer prices excluding food, energy, and trade services - a measure preferred by economists because it strips out the most volatile components - rose 0.4% from the prior month, the most since April, and 1.5% from a year earlier. In January, 90% of the increase in final demand prices was due to a 0.7% jump in services costs. Under the hood, there was some significant swings... Final demand services: The index for final demand services climbed 0.7 percent in January, the largest increase since rising 0.7 percent in October 2018. Forty percent of the January increase in the index for final demand services can be traced to margins for apparel, jewelry, footwear, and accessories retailing, which jumped 10.3 percent. The indexes for machinery and vehicle wholesaling; health, beauty, and optical goods retailing; inpatient care; guestroom rental; and portfolio management also moved higher. Conversely, prices for airline passenger services decreased 5.8 percent. The indexes for professional and commercial equipment wholesaling and for wireless telecommunication services also declined Final demand goods: Prices for final demand goods inched up 0.1 percent in January, the fourth consecutive rise. A 13.9-percent rise for prices of iron and steel scrap was a major factor in the January advance in the index for final demand goods. Prices for fresh and dry vegetables; jet fuel; search, detection, navigation, and guidance systems and equipment; and grains also moved higher. Conversely, the gasoline index decreased 1.5 percent. Prices for chicken eggs, diesel fuel, and motor vehicles also declined. Not much Goldilocks here for Powell to rely on - it's all hot!
NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity picked up in New York State" - From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey :Business activity picked up in New York State, according to firms responding to the February 2020 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index moved up eight points to 12.9. The new orders index shot up 16 points to 22.1, and the shipments index climbed to 18.9. ...The index for number of employees edged down to 6.6, indicating that employment grew to a small degree. The average workweek held near zero, a sign that the average workweek was little changed.… indexes assessing the six-month outlook suggested that optimism about future conditions was somewhat restrained. This was higher than the consensus forecast.
Regional Fed Manufacturing Indexes Improving --This morning's Empire State Manufacturing Survey was the third regional report in a row (after Richmond and Dallas in the last week of January) to show a strong rebound in strength, as the new orders index jumped 15.5 to 22.1 (values over zero indicate improvement).Here’s what the average of the five regions look like as of now (this is taken straight from my weekly update):
- *Empire State up +15.5 to +22.1
- Philly up +7.1 to +18.2
- Richmond up +26 to +13
- Kansas City up +13 to -5
- Dallas up +16.0 to +17.6
- Month-over-month rolling average: up +3 to +13
The regional average had been only +3 only 3 weeks ago. A reading of +13 shows pretty strong growth on the order of what we saw in 2018. Between coronavirus fears and always the possibility that Tariff Man launches new trade wars, I’m not making any promises about where this goes from here. But for now, a clear rebound in manufacturing.
Philly Fed Manufacturing Suggests Activity Increased in February - From the Philly Fed: Current Manufacturing Indicators Suggest a Pickup in Growth in February Manufacturing firms reported an improvement in regional manufacturing activity, according to results from the February Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s current indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments increased this month, suggesting more widespread growth. The firms reported expansion in employment, although at a moderated pace from January. The survey’s broad future indexes also showed improvement this month, indicating that growth is expected to continue over the next six months. The diffusion index for current general activity rose nearly 20 points this month to 36.7, its highest reading since February 2017 … The firms reported overall increases in manufacturing employment this month, but the current employment index decreased 10 points to 9.8. Just 18 percent of the firms reported higher employment, compared with 28 percent last month. The average workweek index, however, increased 5 points.This was well above the consensus forecast. Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index:
Treasury Yields Plunge To Record Lows As US PMI Collapses Into Contraction - Markit's US Manufacturing bucked the surprising surge in ISM Manufacturing in January and preliminary February data was expected to confirm this slowing trend (with Services steadily expanding).
- U.S. Feb. Services Flash PMI 49.4; Est. 53.4
- U.S. Feb. Flash Manufacturing PMI 50.8; Est 51.5
- U.S. Feb. Flash Composite PMI 49.6 vs 53.3
And as the chart shows, while 'soft' survey data had been rising, 'hard' data - actual economic flows - has been weakening for 4 months, and February appears to have been catch-down time! New orders received by private sector firms fell for the first time since data collection began in October 2009. The fractional decline in new business stemmed from weak client demand across the service sector and the slowest rise in manufacturing new order volumes for nine months. Private sector companies continued to struggle to attract foreign client demand as new export orders fell for the second month running. Finally, we note that the composite output at factories and service providers fell by 3.7 points to 49.6, the lowest level since October 2013, when the U.S. government shut down. “The deterioration in was in part linked to the coronavirus outbreak, manifesting itself in weakened demand across sectors such as travel and tourism, as well as via falling exports and supply chain disruptions,” IHS Markit economist Chris Williamson said in a statement. “With the exception of the government-shutdown of 2013, US business activity contracted for the first time since the global financial crisis in February. Weakness was primarily seen in the service sector, where the first drop in activity for four years was reported, but manufacturing production also ground almost to a halt due to a near-stalling of orders.“Total new orders fell for the first time in over a decade. The deterioration in was in part linked to the coronavirus outbreak, manifesting itself in weakened demand across sectors such as travel and tourism, as well as via falling exports and supply chain disruptions. However, companies also reported increased caution in respect to spending due to worries about a wider economic slowdown and uncertainty. The last time PMI crashed here, GDP went negative in Q1 2014 (-1.1%)...
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 210,000 --The DOL reported: In the week ending February 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 210,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 205,000 to 206,000. The 4-week moving average was 209,000, a decrease of 3,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 212,000 to 212,250. The previous week was revised up. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.
The bipartisan plan to save the Post Office - Earlier this month, amid all the sound and fury of the impeachment trial, something remarkable quietly happened: The House of Representatives passed a thoroughly bipartisan bill to save the United States Postal Service. The USPS has been slowly bleeding for the last decade. It has lost money for 13 years straight, it's been forced to brutally cut its workforce and infrastructure, and it's become more reliant on low-pay and part-time workers. At this rate, it will run out of funds in five years. This situation has turned the USPS into a topic of partisan rancor, with liberals blaming the right's anti-government ethos, while conservatives blame liberals' anti-market obtuseness. But then last Wednesday's passage of the USPS Fairness Act bucked the trend: It won a massive 309-to-106 majority in the House, including all 232 Democratic representatives, plus 87 Republicans. It does have sister legislation waiting in the Senate, which still needs to be passed. And then Trump (or whoever succeeds him) has to sign it — unless the bill passes the Senate with a similar two-thirds-or-more majority, in which case it's veto proof. What the USPS Fairness Act does is scrap a requirement first imposed by the Postal Accountability and Enhancement Act (PAEA) of 2006 — that the USPS set aside enough money to cover its likely pension costs for the next 75 years. In 1970, Congress reorganized the agency into the modern U.S. Postal Service — a quasi-business entity, expected to cover its costs of operation with its own money, brought in by stamp sales and so forth, without extra subsidies from the federal budget. That worked fine for a while. But then stiffer competition arrived in the form of private sector rivals like FedEx and UPS — competition it could've easily shrugged off back when it was still a straightforward government-funded operation. The rise of the internet and email also cut into the Postal Service's revenue stream. That brings us to 2006's PAEA, which was basically an effort to tweak the USPS in multiple ways to shore up its finances. One of those tweaks was the pension funding requirement. This is wildly unusual: All other government agencies with pension obligations, plus two-thirds of private sector businesses with them, fund their pensions on a pay-as-you-go basis. What the 2006 law required the USPS to do was set aside enough money between 2007 and 2016 to cover all the retiree benefit obligations that would likely arise over the next 75 years. It's sort of like being required to pay the full cost of your house with cash up front rather than making mortgage payments for the next few decades. Needless to say, it's an enormous financial burden, which is why other government agencies and most private companies don’t do it that way.
Boeing finds debris in 737 MAX jetliners: company memo - (Reuters) - Boeing Co found debris that could pose potential safety risks in the fuel tanks of several 737 MAX aircraft that are in storage and waiting to be delivered to airlines, according to an internal memo seen by Reuters on Tuesday. Foreign object debris, an industrial term for rags, tools, metal shavings and other materials left behind by workers during the production process, has been a quality control issue for various Boeing aircraft, such as its KC-46 tankers. Mark Jenks, general manager of the 737 program, told employees in the memo that such debris was “absolutely unacceptable” and that the company was taking steps to address the issue in its production system. A Boeing spokesman confirmed the memo’s authenticity, and said Boeing does not see the debris as contributing to delays in the jet’s return to service.
Hackers Trick Tesla Into Breaking Speed Limit By 50MPH With 2 Inches Of Tape - Technicians at McAfee, Inc. wanted to test out exactly how well Tesla's Autopilot system worked. So they decided to take a strip of electrical tape and put it across the middle of the "3" in a "35 mile per hour" speed limit sign, tricking the car into thinking the sign said "85 miles per hour". The test concludes 18 months of research, according to Bloomberg, that illustrate weaknesses in machine learning systems used for automated driving. Steve Povolny, head of advanced threat research at McAfee, says changes in the physical world can "confuse" these systems.
‘I Think People Will Starve.’ Experts Are Worried About the Hundreds of Thousands Who Could Lose Food Stamps Come April - Kate Maehr runs a food bank that’s part of a network distributing nearly 200,000 meals around Chicago every day. But last year, official unemployment figures for Cook County, where Chicago is located, improved. As a result, some 50,000 residents are at risk of losing their benefits from the federal Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), better known as food stamps. With so many people getting less help from the government, Maehr knows they will turn to her charity for help. What she doesn’t know is if she’ll be able to feed them. “We don’t have the ability to all of a sudden replace all of those meals that people will lose,” says Maehr, executive director and CEO of theGreater Chicago Food Depository. “The thing that keeps me up at night is that I think people will starve.” This is not just Chicago’s problem. While Cook County just lost its benefits under existing guidelines, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, which administers SNAP, recently finalized a rule that will make it harder for all states to make concessions for able-bodied adult SNAP beneficiaries in struggling areas going forward. Nearly 700,000 people across the country could lose their food stamps once the new rule kicks in in April, according to USDA’s own estimates.The tightening of the food stamp program is part of a broader effort by the Trump administration to reduce government spending on social safety net programs. “We need to encourage people by giving them a helping hand, but not allowing it to become an infinitely giving hand,” Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue said in a press release announcing the rule change in December. “In the midst of the strongest economy in a generation, we need everyone who can work, to work.”In its 2021 budget proposal announced Monday, the Trump Administration doubled down on trying to slash SNAP spending by proposing to convert part of the program’s monthly funds to “Harvest Boxes” — deliveries of American-made shelf-stable foods like canned goods, rice and pasta — and to extend work requirements to adults up to the age of 65, instead of 49. The Administration estimates its recommendations would save $182 billion over the next ten years.
Boy Scouts of America files for bankruptcy amid new sex-abuse lawsuits - The Boy Scouts of America, an enduring presence for young people in the country for the past 110 years, has filed for bankruptcy protection amid an avalanche of sex abuse lawsuits that are set to result in huge victim compensation payments. Several thousand men say they were molested when they were scouts by scoutmasters and other leaders several decades ago and are now able to sue due to changes in statute-of-limitations laws in a number of states. This wave of potential financial settlements helped push the Scouts to file for chapter 11 in Delaware on Tuesday. In an open letter, Jim Turley, the national chairman of the Boy Scouts of America, said the organization has taken the bankruptcy option to “ensure we can equitably compensate all victims of past abuse in our programs, through a proposed victims’ compensation trust”. The Scouts, founded in 1910, received a federal charter in 1916 and has since played a foundational role in the lives of millions of young Americans. Former US presidents John Kennedy, Gerald Ford and Bill Clinton were all scouts. However, the Scouts have long held internal files at their headquarters in Texas that link allegations of abuse to about 8,000 perpetrators, according to the New York Times. Former scouts have identified hundreds of other abusers not included in these files. A group set up to corral victims for lawsuits, called Abused in Scouting, now represents more than 1,800 abuse survivors, ranging in age from 14 to 93 years old. Several dozen survivors are over the age of 80. The reorganization of the Scouts and settlement of compensation is “going to be a mess”, according to Tim Kosnoff, an attorney representing abuse survivors. “If it takes a long period of time, it’s an open question whether the Boy Scouts will have any resources to keep operating while the bankruptcy is pending.” Evidence of sex abuse has been held by the Scouts for nearly a century and the organization has previously fought to prevent this information from becoming public. A legal battle over allegations in Oregon eventually saw a jury decide in 2010 that the Scouts were liable for $18.5m in damages.
No vaccine required: Anti-vaxx families moving to Idaho - Shalee Brindley and her husband were ready to leave the Bay Area. They couldn’t afford to buy a home for their family — and with their daughter approaching school age, Brindley felt a looming deadline to leave California. California law requires childhood immunizations for almost all students. Brindley didn’t plan to vaccinate her child.As the couple searched for a new state to call home in 2017, Idaho’s vaccine laws sealed the deal. In Idaho, Brindley wouldn’t need a doctor to sign off on a medical exemption for her daughter. She needed only to submit a form saying she chose not to vaccinate. “I’m a mother. And I’m also a California refugee,” Brindley, a Meridian resident, said at a hearing in Boise in August 2019. “I came here in search of medical freedom.” Brindley was one of more than two dozen people who told state officials last summer that they moved to Idaho because of the state’s limited regulation — specifically, the ease of getting a vaccine exemption for schoolchildren.They said vaccine mandates take away a parent’s right to make medical decisions for their children, and they voiced concerns about vaccine safety.Several people who testified at hearings or via email described themselves as a “refugee” of their former state.They urged lawmakers and the Idaho Department of Health and Welfare not to change Idaho’s permissive rules. Neighboring states like California and Washington have tightened the rules for vaccine exemptions in response to outbreaks of diseases like the measles.The Idaho Legislature last month voted to keep Idaho’s existing rules, according to Idaho Education News. Legislators narrowly voted to keep the meningitis vaccine on a list of immunizations for high schoolers.
Republicans furious over history lesson comparing Trump to Nazis -- Republican lawmakers in Maryland have criticized a history lesson at a public high school near Baltimore in which Donald Trump was compared with Nazis and communists. A slide used in a history class at Loch Raven high school in Towson showed a picture of Trump above pictures of a Nazi swastika and a flag of the Soviet Union. Captions read “wants to round up a group of people and build a giant wall” and “oh, THAT is why it sounds so familiar!” The Baltimore Sun reported that the state delegate Kathy Szeliga arranged for copies of the slide and the school system’s response to be sent to fellow Baltimore county lawmakers. She also posted the image on Facebook. “It is horrific. It is educational malfeasance,” Szeliga said on Friday. The Baltimore county councilman Wade Kach said the slide was “a piece of propaganda” that didn’t belong in a classroom. The school system said the slide was not part of the resources it provides for history teachers. Charles Herndon, a spokesman for Baltimore county schools, said students in advanced high school classes are “discerning, intelligent students who are going to be able to draw their own inferences and draw their own conclusions”. “The topics being discussed in the class included world wars and the attempts by some leaders throughout history to limit or prevent migration into certain countries. In isolation and out of context with the lesson, the image could be misunderstood,” the school district said in a statement.
What Chinese applicants to US universities should watch out for as campus closures gather steam South China Morning Post - Many Chinese students see the United States asan ideal placefor college, despite the current tension between the two economic superpowers.But students and their parents need to exercise caution. A stark demographic drop is coming for US colleges. The US high school population, which has been declining, will drop significantly by 2026. This will strain an already financially stressed industry.In nine years, the number of US students attending college is projected to plunge by 11 per cent or 292,000. In parts of the US, such as the Northeast (Massachusetts) and Midwest (Illinois), schools are already struggling with falling enrolments due to lower US birth rates. In the past three years, over 90 non-profit US colleges have closed, merged with other colleges or consolidated their administrations, such as in the Wisconsin and Georgia state systems. Middlebury College, ranked seventh among liberal arts colleges in the latest US News and World Report, enacted a voluntary employee buyout – despite its US$1 billion endowment – to close a budget deficit. Consulting firm EY-Parthenon predicts 800 colleges are at risk. The College Stress Test, by Robert Zemsky, Susan Shaman and Susan Campbell Baldridge, expects 40 per cent of four-year undergraduate schools to struggle or close. Credit agencies Standard & Poor’s and Fitch have issued negative outlooks for US higher education in the past year. Australia and Canada hold positive S&P outlooks. Nathan Grawe, an economist at Carleton College, developed the Higher Education Demand Index, which projects college attendance for two-year, four-year and elite US universities in his book, Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education. “The decline is a sizeable change and will impact higher ed, barring any major policy changes,” Grawe says. Every US state will face drops in college-bound students, except eight (Texas, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, Idaho and Montana). Every national and regional four-year and two-year school will face double-digit enrolment declines. Only the elite top 50 US colleges and universities will be insulated.
I had to turn down acceptances at Yale, Columbia, and Johns Hopkins because I can't take on interest-bearing loans — and I'm just one example of how the American loan system doesn't cater to Muslims -- As students all over the country recently began their new semesters, I couldn't help but think back to a time when I was at the crossroads of choosing my next course of study after completing my undergraduate degree. Whether I stayed close to home or moved across the country, one thing I knew for sure at the time was that pursuing higher education wouldn't be cheap. For the many who can't afford to pay out of pocket to go to college or graduate school, there's the popular option to work with a financial aid officer to secure a financial aid package. But this "aid" can be misleading for students. Often you're offered a package saddled with interest-bearing loans, which adversely affect students in the long run — and significantly contributes to the alarming amount ofstudent loan debt in the US. Worse, this financial model doesn't address the religious restrictions that may limit certain students from using it. As a Muslim, I can't take on interest-bearing loans because I follow the religious mandate from the Quran of staying away from interest. So, like many other Muslims, when it came to paying for school I had few options to choose from. I didn't let that stop me from seeking higher education, and I had help along the way. But not every Muslim American out there has access to the support I had — and more importantly, the education system shouldn't require them to. I graduated from Wesleyan University with a BA in neuroscience, behavior, and psychology in 2012. After graduating from Wesleyan, I decided I wanted to continue my education — and naively, I thought there would be folks like Sean who would find ways to accommodate me. I rigorously applied to programs and ended up with acceptances in hand from Yale, Columbia, and Johns Hopkins graduate schools, but regretfully had to turn them all down because the only option for financial aid included interest-bearing loans. For Johns Hopkins, I even deferred my admission in the hopes that the following year I would be awarded a better package with more scholarships. But even then, I was asked to take out $90,000 in federal loans, for a one-year program. Like the rest, I declined the offer.
Unplugged: UMD students seek to re-normalize social connection --A campus-wide initiative intended to bring people together at the University of Minnesota Duluth started with a class assignment. Then, writing instructor Susan Perala-Dewey encouraged the five students involved in the group project to put their writing into action. That’s how “Connection Day” came to fruition Tuesday at UMD. Five students invited everyone on campus to disconnect from their mobile devices and instead seek human connection with the help of intention-setting, name tags and conversation starters. "This isn't just a college student thing," senior political science student Trevor Peterson said. "It's a people thing." One opportunity students often miss out on is building relationships with each other during the minutes before class starts, especially in the larger classes, senior psychology student Kelly Gilomen said. "It's like we exist in our own little worlds until we absolutely have to reach out which is kind of sad," Gilomen said. "Overall, most classrooms are stick to yourself unless you're instructed otherwise." Student Tiana Forbes said she hopes that Connection Day will help others who are struggling to make friends find more ways of doing so. "I'm a transfer student and so I was trying to make connections with people at the beginning of class, but I was struggling because everyone seemed to be preoccupied by what they were doing," Forbes said.
Quebec: Students protest against CAQ’s chauvinist “secularism” law - Braving frigid temperatures, hundreds of students from English-speaking McGill University and French-speaking Université du Québec à Montréal demonstrated recently against the Coalition Avenir Québec’s chauvinist “secularism law” (Bill 21). Among other antidemocratic provisions, Bill 21 prohibits Quebec schools hiring teachers who wear “religious” symbols—including the Muslim hijab, Sikh turban and Jewish kippah. Underscoring Bill 21’s discriminatory aims, the government has said it has no objection to teachers wearing “discreet” Roman Catholic crosses.The January 17 demonstration was organized by student associations from both universities, including the Students' Society of McGill University (SSMU) External Affairs, the Education Undergraduate Society (EdUS), the Association des étudiantes et étudiants de la faculté des sciences de l'éducation and the Association facultaire étudiante de science politique et droit de l'UQAM. EdUS students, who had voted for a two-days strike to demonstrate against the law, also held another action January 21.On the first protest day, some 300 demonstrators heard speeches from students opposed to the “secularism” law, and marched to the Quebec Ministry of Immigration, Francisation and Integration. According to the organizers, the protest’s purpose was to demand that the government withdraw its “secularism” law in its entirety, and to press the province's university administrations to take a "hardline" stand against the chauvinist law. Bill 21 is the outcome of a longstanding campaign, spearheaded by the most chauvinistic sections of Quebec's ruling elite and the media, a campaign in which the entire political establishment, including the pseudo-left pro-Quebec independence Québec Solidaire and union bureaucracy, has been complicit. This campaign was launched in 2007 by the tabloids of the Quebecor media empire and the Action démocratique du Québec (ADQ), the predecessor of the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ). They railed against the “excessive” accommodations purportedly granted religious minorities and the threat they represent for “Quebec culture.” Bill 21 prohibits the wearing of "religious symbols" by many other state employees, in addition to teachers, in so-called "positions of authority." It also incorporates the main measure of the previous Liberal government's Bill 62, which reduced Muslim women wearing the full veil (niqab or burqa) to pariah status by prohibiting them from receiving or giving public services (health care, public school, public transportation, etc.).
UCLA Backtracks On Facial Recognitions Plans - Students nationwide raised concerns about universities using biometric surveillance, or facial recognition, on students. Campus Reform reportedlast month that at least three California campuses had implemented the software. At the time, the University of San Francisco, the University of Southern California, and Stanford University were confirmed to have systems in place. Now, after concerns both nationwide and directly from its own campus, the University of California-Los Angeles has publicly stated that it will not move forward with plans to use such technology and has promised to ban the use of any such technology on campus. "UCLA will not pursue the use of this technology. We have determined that the potential benefits are limited and vastly outweighed by the concerns of our campus community,” said UCLA administrative vice-chancellor Michael Beck, according to CNET. “This type of invasive technology poses a profound threat to our basic liberties, civil rights, and academic freedom. Schools that are already using this technology are conducting unethical experiments on their students. Students and staff have a right to know if their administrations are planning to implement biometric surveillance on campus," said Deputy Director of Fight for the Future Evan Greer. Fight for the future is a nonprofit group that advocates for digital rights and is part of the nationwide Ban Facial Recognition campaign against the use of this technology by universities.
Striking University of California-Santa Cruz grad students defy UAW, arrests and threats of termination - Graduate student instructors (GSIs) and teaching assistants (TAs) at University of California-Santa Cruz are beginning the sixth day of their wildcat strike to demand a cost of living adjustment. Like many educators in California, grad students have confronted stagnant wages alongside skyrocketing rents that leave them struggling to survive in one of the most expensive cities in the United States. Last December, grad students initiated a grading strike to demand the increase. The grad students are demanding an increase in pay by $1,412 per month, which would increase the average monthly pay of a student worker to $3,812. In Santa Cruz, however, the average price of a rental unit ($2,600) is more than the current average salary and would still be more than two-thirds of the average salary if students win their demand. Ten percent of UC students without family support have experienced homelessness. Food insecurity among students and workers is rampant. At least 17 grad students were arrested last Wednesday as hundreds of strikers confronted police and California Highway Patrol officers during a mass protest, which was called in defiance of the United Auto Workers (UAW) Local 2865. The university administration has refused to negotiate with the strikers, insisting that they abide by the terms of the sellout agreement the UAW signed in 2018, which covers all nine teaching UC campuses. On Friday, UC President Janet Napolitano issued an open letter to faculty and staff demanding the grad student obey the “no-strike” clause in the UAW contract and threatening to fire all those participating in the wildcat strike. Napolitano claimed agreeing to any of the strikers’ demands would “undercut the very foundation of an agreement negotiated in good faith by the UAW.” On the eve of the job action, the campus Public Affairs office said, “This strike is prohibited under their current contract, and it is not sanctioned by their union. UC Santa Cruz has no authority to separately change an already agreed-upon, system-wide labor contract with the UAW.” The fact that university workers are breaking out of the UAW straitjacket has clearly shaken Napolitano. As the former Department of Homeland Security secretary responsible for brutalizing immigrants and breaking up the Occupy protests under the Obama administration, she was brought in to lead the UC system and suppress student opposition to fee hikes and the attack on free speech and other democratic rights. During her tenure she relied on the UAW apparatus as a labor contractor to keep GSIs working despite poverty wages. In response to Napolitano’s threats to fire striking grad students, the GSA issued a statement calling on students to spread the strike across the UC system.. The issues confronting Santa Cruz students are common to academic workers across the country who are expected to teach hundreds of students so the universities can hire ever fewer tenured positions.
UCSC Grad Students Are on Strike for a Living Wage - Graduate students at the University of California Santa Cruz (UCSC) have been on strike since February 10, after months of contentious conversations with the school administration. Unlike many of their peers across the country who have been shut out of organizing, the UCSC cohort are members of United Auto Workers Local 2865, a union that has long represented graduate students in the UC system. Their current contract, which was approved by others in the UC system, was ratified in 2018, but it was initially rejected by nearly 83% of UCSC graduate students. They have been organizing to try and get a better deal ever since. Their biggest issue? The rent is too damn high, and their wages are far too low to be able to afford to live in the pricey Santa Cruz area. According to one of the strike’s organizers, Jane Komori, the vast majority of graduate student workers at UCSC spend more than 50% — and often 60 or 70% — of their wages on rent. As a result, the UCSC Graduate Student Association has been lobbying the university administration for a cost of living adjustment (COLA) of $1,412 per month since November. Those demands were unmet, so they decided to escalate: December was the beginning of a grading strike in which grad students withheld 12,000 grades at the end of the fall quarter; after they say the administration refused to meet with them, the workers decided to continue withholding grades through the entire winter semester. The Pay Us More UCSC movement was heating up. Finally, on January 27, Chancellor Cynthia Larive provided what the workers saw as an unsatisfactory response, and things escalated further to a full strike on Monday, February 10. The workers have been walking a picket line outside the university ever since. They’ve also added two new demands: non-retaliation for strike activities, and that any budgetary allocations toward COLA must not come from increases in graduate or undergraduate tuition. The UCSC grad students have been joined by hundreds of undergraduates, as well as other staff and faculty (whose senate just voted in support of some of the COLA demands), and have received support from fellow grad students, academics, and union members across the country, including current Democratic front-runner Senator Bernie Sanders. Since their contract includes a no-strike clause, their current work stoppage is what’s known as a "wildcat" strike. They say that means that they are left without the usual union protections, like legal aid or a strike fund, and are at risk of having their pay docked, being slapped with a lawsuit, or being fired outright. These workers say the decision to go on strike anyway shows how dire their situation has become, and how much they’re struggling.
UC Santa Cruz graduate students call for expansion of wildcat strike - The UC Santa Cruz (UCSC) graduate student wildcat strike escalated yesterday, Tuesday February 18, as students from United Auto Workers (UAW) union local 2865 mounted an all-day picket, culminating in a general assembly to vote on further action. Graduate students are holding fast against police repression and threats of dismissal or even deportation from the highest level university administration. Despite a virtual media blackout, support for the movement is growing across the UC system, drawing widespread support from students, faculty, and workers across the country. A significant number of students attended the general assembly meeting, whose outcome is not yet clear. One speaker called for students to “spread the strike throughout the entire UC system,” including to undergraduate students, campus workers, and tenure- and non-tenure-track professors. The speaker noted to applause that the labor police role of the United Auto Workers (UAW) in enforcing the no-strike clause in their contract. The UCSC graduate students’ main demand is a substantial cost of living adjustment (COLA) of $1,412 per month for graduate students living off roughly $2,400 per month in one of the most expensive areas in the country. Wildcat action began in December with a grading strike by roughly 200 teaching assistants, who have refused to turn in final grades accounting for 70-90% of UCSC Fall 2019 classes until their demands are met. Last week, students escalated action to a full strike, which was met with police repression. At today’s general assembly meeting, strikers met to discuss a collective response to a UCSC ultimatum that threatens students with disciplinary action up to and including dismissal if they do not submit Fall 2019 grades by midnight this Friday. The response of UCSC administration has been a characteristic mixture of stonewalling and repression. On Friday, February 14, UC President Janet Naplitano, Obama’s former Secretary of Homeland Security, threatened striking students with dismissal. She claimed that any improvement in Santa Cruz student’s poverty wages before the contract expires in 2022 “would undercut the very foundation of an agreement negotiated in good faith by the UAW.” Twenty minutes later, UCSC Executive Vice Chancellor Lori Kletzer emailed students with the Friday, February 21 ultimatum to submit final grades.
Support for UC Santa Cruz strike spreads to other campuses, faculty - Support for striking University of California (UC) Santa Cruz graduate students continues to grow as UC administration deploys police and threats across the UC system. UC Santa Cruz (UCSC) faculty passed two resolutions in support of the strike while graduate students held sympathy demonstrations at at least five other UC campuses. Democratic Party politicians, most notably Presidential Candidate Bernie Sanders, are now posturing as supporters of the strike in an attempt to channel it into harmless political channels. 200 UCSC students have been withholding Fall 2019 final grades since December, calling for a substantial cost-of-living-adjustment (COLA) of $1,412 per month to compensate for high rents. Last week, this grading strike grew into a full-blown wildcat strike, in defiance of the no-strike clause in the contract negotiated by the United Auto Workers (UAW) union. This afternoon at 4:30pm, UCSC students will hold a general assembly to decide whether to risk dismissal or even deportation by defying the 11:59pm ultimatum set by UC administration to submit Fall 2019 final grades. International students issued a brave response to the university’s thinly-veiled threats of deportation, correctly noting, “We have no reason to believe that submitting grades and ending our strike activities will keep any of us safe from retaliation.” The heavy-handed response of UC administration, led by UC President and former Obama administration Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano, has led to a nationwide outpouring of support. Graduate students and supporters held solidarity demonstrations and teach-ins at at least four other UC campuses. At UC Davis, roughly 200 attended a teach-in on UCSC strike. At UC San Diego, 60 to 70 students, including graduate and undergraduate students, denounced Napolitano for threatening to fire students and attempting to divide them from faculty. One organizer noted the class gulf that separates graduate students from administrators, asking “When's the last time UC administrators had sleep for dinner?” At UC Irvine, a few dozen student demonstrators confronted police outside an administration building, chanting “Cops off campus. COLA in my bank account.” Students at UC Berkeley met Wednesday evening to discuss a response to potential victimization of UCSC students, with about 25 Geography graduate students signing one of several open letters of support for the strike. Graduate students from NYU and University of Chicago have also issued statements of support via social media.
California grad students risk losing their jobs amid months-long strike Across university campuses in California on Friday, students and faculty members marched, chanted and waved signs in support of the graduate students at the University of Santa Cruz who have been waging a months-long strike for a cost-of-living-adjustment amid soaring rents. But despite that widespread support, many of those same Santa Cruz graduate students were readying themselves for the possibility of losing their teaching jobs and being forced to drop out of school. Since December, 233 graduate student instructors and teaching assistants have refused to submit nearly 12,000 grades from the fall quarter. And as of this month, the strike as expanded to include all teaching and grading duties, with research assistants refusing to do additional work. The students are striking for a $1,412-a-month cost-of-living-adjustment, something they say they desperately need amid the towering rents in Santa Cruz and the growing housing crisis in California. Graduate students at UC Santa Cruz currently make $2,434 a month before taxes, but many students “end up spending 50% and oftentimes 60% to 70% of their wages on rent”, said Jane Komori, a third-year graduate student studying the history of consciousness. “This cost-of-living-adjustment is what we would require to no longer be rent-burdened. It’s nothing extravagant. The median rent for a one-bedroom in Santa Cruz is nearly $3,000. We’re not asking for that. We’re just asking enough of a wage increase so we can be out of our rent burden, address our other expenses, and teach and research as we’re meant to.”
U.S. Taxpayers Face $200 Billion Bill From Student Loan Forgiveness Plans - The student loan bubble continues to inflate. It’s now a $1.64 trillion problem that has increased over 120% since 2009. Student loan balances equate to 7.6% of GDP. That’s up from 5.1% a decade ago.Much of the millennial generation has insurmountable student debts that have prevented them from family formation, home buying, and growing savings. This has severely weighed on the economy, but it appears relief could be on the way, paid for by the U.S. taxpayer.The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said this week that a $207.4 billion student loan forgiveness program would help Americans who are unable to pay their debt through 2029.The CBO said borrowers who attend graduate or professional schooling would benefit from the program the most.The government is expected to forgive $167.1 billion of the total amount, and this includes the original loan amount and unpaid interest for borrowers over the period.The CBO estimates that the government will forgive $40.3 billion on new loans made from 2020-2029, or about 21% of the original amount.There are more than 50 million Americans with student loan debt. The CBO estimates that most of the borrowers are stuck in low wage and low skilled jobs with large balances that may never be paid pack. Many of these folks are millennials, stuck in a renting society with absolutely no economic mobility. The student loan bubble is another imbalance that will correct and end very badly when the next recession strikes, hence why the government has created a new program to fund student debt forgiveness. Let’s call the program for what it really is: a massive bailout of the millennial generation. Like all bubbles, this one will eventually pop. And when it does, it will end very badly.
Bronze ACA Plans are Terrible. Bronze plans are often the best Choice -- In discussion of the ACA marketplace (and health insurance generally), deductibles are often used as a stand-in for out-of-pocket costs. Now here cometh David Anderson to remind us that a plan’s maximum out-of-pocket cost (MOOP) can be just as important — and that the MOOP often does not particularly correspond to metal level. The highest allowable MOOP at all metal levels is $8,150 (a travesty by international rich country standards). Here is David’s mapping of the range of MOOP for gold plans in HealthCare.gov states. Dark green is $2,500 MOOP; dark red is $8,150. As David points out, bronze plans will be a better deal for anyone who knows they’ll hit the out-of-pocket max. As he’s pointed out elsewhere (and in passing here), it takes a lot more spending to hit the high max in a gold plan — say, $30,000 — than in a bronze plan. That’s because once you meet your deductible (likely to be relatively low in a gold plan with high MOOP), a high percentage of ensuing costs will be covered in a gold plan until the MOOP is reached, at which point coverage goes to 100% for ensuing costs (if you stay in network). And as I’ve noted before, for an unsubsidized enrollee, the window in which the lower overall out-of-pocket spending in a higher metal level will outstrip the higher premium cost is usually pretty narrow. Where premium pricing is more or less proportionate to actuarial value (and in the ACA marketplace, it often isn’t), you have to spend a good amount on healthcare, but not as much as a short hospital stay will likely cost, for a higher metal level plan to pay off, especially one with a higher MOOP. (As health insurance Jenny Hogue points out, a three-day hospital stay will likely max out any MOOP.) This leads to two dissonant conclusions:
- 1) By international standards bronze plans are a travesty. Deductibles average around $6,000, MOOP around $7,000. That’s a huge amount of financial exposure for “insured” not-wealthy people — leaving aside further exposure to cost through balance billing, narrow networks, and insurers’ refusal to pay for prescribed treatments.
- 2) For individual market enrollees who earn more than 200% of the Federal Poverty Level and so are not eligible for strong Cost Sharing Reduction subsidies (which keep MOOP under $2,500 for silver plans), bronze plans are usually the rational choice. That may not be true where ACA marketplace quirks throw up gold or silver plans at a steep discount, or for people with substantial chronic healthcare costs but no catastrophic costs, but it’s true more often than not. It’s especially true in the era of silver loading*, when bronze plans are free or super-cheap for many people with incomes in the 200-400% FPL range.
The Cancer Industry: Hype vs. Reality – Scientific American -Cancer has spawned a huge industrial complex involving government agencies, pharmaceutical and biomedical firms, hospitals and clinics, universities, professional societies, nonprofit foundations and media. The costs of cancer care have surged 40 percent in the last decade, from $125 billion in 2010 to $175 billion in 2020 (projected).Research funding has also surged. The budget of the National Cancer Institute, a federal agency founded in 1937, now totals over $6 billion/year. That is a fraction of the total spent on research by nonprofit foundations ($6 billion a year, according to 2019 study), private firms and other government agencies. Total research spending since Richard Nixon declared a “war on cancer” in 1971 exceeds a quarter trillion dollars, according to a 2016 estimate.Cancer-industry boosters claim that investments in research, testing and treatment have led to “incredible progress” and millions of “cancer deaths averted,” as the homepage of the American Cancer Society, a nonprofit that receives money from biomedical firms, puts it. A 2016 study found that cancer experts and the media often describe new treatments with terms such as “breakthrough,” “game changer,” “miracle,” “cure,” “home run,” “revolutionary,” “transformative,” “life saver,” “groundbreaking” and “marvel.” There are more than accredited 1,200 cancer centers in the U.S. They spent $173 million on television and magazine ads directed at the public in 2014, according to a 2018 study, and 43 of the 48 top spenders “deceptively promot[ed] atypical patient experiences through the use of powerful testimonials.” A 2014 study concluded that cancer centers “frequently promote cancer therapy with emotional appeals that evoke hope and fear while rarely providing information about risks, benefits, costs, or insurance availability.”What’s the reality behind the hype? “No one is winning the war on cancer,” Azra Raza, an oncologist at Columbia, asserts in her 2019 book The First Cell: And the Costs of Pursuing Cancer to the Last. Claims of progress are “mostly hype, the same rhetoric from the same self-important voices for the past half century.” Trials have yielded improved treatments for childhood cancers and specific cancers of the blood, bone-marrow and lymph systems, Raza notes. But these successes, which involve uncommon cancers, are exceptions among a “litany of failures.”
Chemotherapy For Cancer Could Soon Be Unviable Because of Superbugs - Cancer doctors fear superbugs which can't be treated with antibiotics will soon remove chemotherapy as a treatment option for their patients, a survey has revealed. Cancer patients are more vulnerable to infections because the disease and its treatments can stop the immune system from working correctly. a close up of a hand holding a toy: A stock image shows packets of drugs.© Getty A stock image shows packets of drugs. Of the 100 oncologists in the U.K. surveyed between December 20, 2019 and February 3, 2020 by the Longitude Prize—which was established to tackle antimicrobial resistance in cancer care—95 percent said they were worried about the effect superbugs could have on their patients. An estimated one in five cancer patients need antibiotics during their treatment, according to existing research cited by the authors of the report, and cancers including multiple myeloma and acute leukaemia can't be treated without them. The survey revealed that 46 percent of doctors believe drug-resistant bugs will make chemotherapy unviable. Some cancer treatments, which the report didn't name, will be obsolete in five years, 28 percent of the cancer doctors predicted. A further 39 percent forecast this would happen within the next decade, and 15 percent in two decades. Four in 10 (41 percent) said they had seen a rise in patients developing drug-resistant infections in the last year, with 23 percent of their cancer patients developing an infection during treatment on average
Twitter Ran Ads For Human Organs Because Money Is Money - Aside from pockets of overt racism, one of the more weirdly unpleasant corners of Twitter comes from its “promoted” content. What ostensibly started as a tool for big-name brands to drive the “reach” and “impact” of whatever message they might be promoting, it’s since devolved into another kind of marketing tool that’s just kind of.... weird. Not weird in the tracking-you-everywhere-you-go kind of way, but weird, in the just plain weird way. Not unlike the bonkers hallucinations reported by patients on death’s door, the spammy, click-baity, and sometimes downright disturbing promoted tweets cropping up onto people’s feeds are symptomatic of Twitter’s own ad platform rotting from the inside out.Here’s a recent example: This week, freelance journalist Tyler Coates apparently had a grisly promo for an organ-buying service crop up onto his feed.The fact that this cropped up in front of his face to begin with is indicative of how badly these ads are targeted in the first place. “Despite my cold, dead heart, I am not in the market for new organs,” Coates later told Gizmodo.Understanding how broken Twitter’s system is requires a bit of context. Since being pressured to juice its promoted content roughly half a decade ago, Twitter’s been, shall we say, “experimenting” with new ways to push that content in front of its user base and milk those eyeballs for profit. At the same time, it’s been gradually limiting the ways advertisers can target the people who might want to see that content in the first place.The result? Weird promoted tweets—about organs or otherwise—flooding people’s feeds.
Air pollution's tiny particles may trigger nonfatal heart attacks, Yale study finds - Myocardial infarction is a major form of cardiovascular disease worldwide. Ultrafine particles (UFP) are 100 nanometers or smaller in size. In urban areas, automobile emissions are the primary source of UFP. The study in the journal Environmental Health Perspectives is believed to be the first epidemiological investigation of the effects of UFP exposure and heart attacks using the number of particles and the particle length and surface area concentrations at hourly intervals of exposure. "This study confirms something that has long been suspected--air pollution's tiny particles can play a role in serious heart disease. This is particularly true within the first few hours of exposure," said Kai Chen, Ph.D., assistant professor at Yale School of Public Health and the study's first author. "Elevated levels of UFP are a serious public health concern." UFP constitute a health risk due to their small size, large surface areas per unit of mass, and their ability to penetrate the cells and get into the blood system. "We were the first to demonstrate the effects of UFP on the health of asthmatics in an epidemiological study in the 1990s," said Annette Peters, director of the Institute of Epidemiology at Helmholtz Center Munich and a co-author of this paper. "Since then approximately 200 additional studies have been published. However, epidemiological evidence remains inconsistent and insufficient to infer a causal relationship."
Phthalates Exposure in Womb Linked to Autistic Traits in Boys - Exposure in the womb to a group of endocrine-disrupting chemicals called phthalates was associated with autism traits in boys (but not girls) between ages 3 and 4 years, according to a new study. However, fewer of these traits were observed in boys whose mothers took the recommended amount of folic acid during the first trimester, the findings suggest. "Very few studies looked at autism and its associated traits, with inconsistent findings. We tried to look at this question in a large sample from a Canadian cohort that was designed specifically to look at potential developmental effects of exposure to environmental chemicals," lead author Youssef Oulhote, assistant professor of biostatistics and epidemiology at UMass Amherst's School of Public Health & Health Sciences, told Healthline. Phthalates are commonly used in many products, including soap and cosmetics. Oulhote and team enrolled 2,001 Canadian women with an average age of 33 who were in their first trimester of pregnancy between 2008 and 2011. Less than 10 percent of the women reported regularly drinking or smoking during pregnancy.All the participants were recruited from the Maternal-Infant Research on Environmental Chemicals (MIREC), a longitudinal pregnancy cohort study conducted in Canada.Researchers collected information from questionnaires, medical charts, and maternal blood and urine specimens during pregnancy and at delivery.Concentrations of 11 phthalate monoester metabolites were measured in first trimester urine samples at the Toxicology Centre of the Quebec Institute of Public Health. "We had several limitations, the most important one being that these phthalates exposures may vary in time, and therefore future studies should consider this and try to measure these phthalates at multiple time points in pregnancy," Oulhote said.
5 more flu-related deaths push total in Cuyahoga Co. to 14 — The total number of flu-related deaths in Cuyahoga County has jumped to 14, health officials said Friday. The latest five deaths were an 88-year-old Bay Village woman; an 94-year-old Chagrin Falls woman; an 83-year-old East Cleveland woman; a 62-year-old Seven Hills man and a 60-year-old Shaker Heights man. The deaths were reported during the week of Feb. 15. The number of flu-related deaths last season (2018-19) didn’t hit 14 until mid-April, according to the Cuyahoga County Board of Health statistics. Health officials do not release any additional personal information about flu victims, including whether or not they had received the flu vaccine. Summit and Medina counties did not have any flu-related deaths in the weeks of Jan. 26-Feb. 8, according to the latest report. This season’s influenza vaccine is 45% effective in protecting people from the virus, according to an interim report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That’s in line with many past flu vaccines, which had an estimated effectiveness rates of between 40% and 60%. And it’s a reasonable improvement over last season’s vaccine, which the CDC says was about 29% effective overall. Children enjoyed greater protection from this year’s flu shot, the CDC said, estimating that the vaccine offered 55% protection for those aged 6 months to 17 years. When researchers looked at the flu shot’s effectiveness in children against influenza type A and type B, they found that it was 50% effective against type B, but largely ineffective against type A in youth.
Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report | CDC -- Key indicators that track flu activity remain high but decreased slightly this week. Indicators that track overall severity (hospitalizations and deaths) are not high at this point in the season. The percentage of respiratory specimens testing positive for influenza at clinical laboratories decreased from 30.3% last week to 29.6% this week. Numbers of influenza B/Victoria and A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses are approximately equal for the season overall, with continued increases in influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses in recent weeks. Genetic and antigenic characterization and antiviral susceptibility of influenza viruses collected in the U.S. are summarized in this report. Illness Visits to health care providers for influenza-like illness (ILI) decreased from 6.7% last week to 6.1% this week. All regions remain above their baselines.
- Outpatient ILI and clinical laboratory data remain elevated but decreased slightly this week. The overall decrease in the percentage of specimens testing positive for influenza was due to a decrease in the percentage of specimens testing positive for influenza B. The percentage of specimens testing positive for influenza A continued to increase.
- Overall, hospitalization rates remain similar to this time during recent seasons, but rates among children and young adults are higher at this time than in recent seasons.
- Pneumonia and influenza mortality has been low, but 105 influenza-associated deaths in children have been reported so far this season.
- CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 29 million flu illnesses, 280,000 hospitalizations and 16,000 deaths from flu.
- Interim estimates of 2019-2020 flu vaccine effectiveness were released this week. So far this season, flu vaccines are reducing doctor’s visits for flu illness by 45% overall and 55% in children.
- Antiviral medications are an important adjunct to flu vaccine in the control of influenza. Almost all (>99%) of the influenza viruses tested this season are susceptible to the four FDA-approved influenza antiviral medications recommended for use in the U.S. this season.
Flu-related pediatric deaths top 100 nationwide, CDC says - Some 13 influenza-associated pediatric deaths were reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for the week ending Feb. 15, bringing the season’s total for such deaths to 105.The toll among children and adolescents under 18 is, other than for the 2009 pandemic, the largest number of such deaths at this point in the season since reporting began for the 2004-2005 season, the CDC has said.According to the CDC’s most recent weekly surveillance report, 10 of the 13 newly reported deaths were associated with influenza B viruses, which can cause more complications and fatalities in children. Influenza B has predominated for much of the season.Flu activity remains high and widespread across the country, including in Massachusetts, which has had one influenza-associated pediatric deaths so far this season. The CDC continues to recommend anyone 6 months and older get the annual vaccination against influenza. It updated its prediction that flu activity is likely to remain elevated into March. In its interim report released Thursday, based on data from the U.S. Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Network, the CDC said this season’s flu shot is estimated to reduced a person’s overall risk of having to seek medical care at a doctor’s office for flu illness by 45%.
Japanese Couple Tests Positive for Virus After Hawaii Visit: NYT - A married Japanese couple in their 60s tested positive for the coronavirus after returning home from a Hawaiian vacation, health officials said Saturday, according to the New York Times. The couple had returned to Nagoya, Japan’s fourth-largest city, on Feb. 7, and a day later he visited a hospital with a fever but was turned away. He was back after two days when he learned he had pneumonia, but he was then released. On Thursday, the man went by ambulance to a hospital. His wife checked into the hospital Friday with a fever. Both now have the virus. The disclosure of the post-visit infection has caused concern among Hawaii health officials, the Times reported. “All of the state agencies have been preparing for exactly this scenario, where someone visits the island and the virus is present,” Governor David Ige said at a news conference. The Japanese man grew ill on the second week of his vacation while the couple was in a time-share in Honolulu, authorities said. Before that, the couple was in Maui, but showed no symptoms. The husband started showing signs of illness on Feb. 3 and wore a mask when he went outside the Grand Waikikian by Hilton Grand Vacations in the Waikiki neighborhood of Honolulu, officials said.
Japan Says Cases Surge to 355 Aboard Luxury Liner: Virus Update -The U.S. and other nations are ready to fly home hundreds of passengers stuck on a quarantined ship in Japan, but infected travelers are staying behind. The Diamond Princess had 355 confirmed coronavirus cases, including at least 40 Americans.Malaysia stopped admitting passengers from the Westerdam luxury liner docked in Cambodia after an American traveler fell ill in Kuala Lumpur. Taiwan had its first death, a taxi driver in his 60s.China will act to cut corporate taxes and unnecessary government expenses as the virus hurts production. China has 68,500 total cases and 1,665 deaths. The global infection total is nearing 70,000. Key Developments:
- Taiwan reports first death from the virus, a taxi driver
- China pledges more economic stimulus
- Malaysia Bars Westerdam Cruise Passengers From Entry
- Cases soar aboard Diamond Princess in Japan
- Singapore, U.A.E. report new cases
- Hubei had 1,843 new cases, down from 2,420 a day earlier.
Quarantined cruise ship passenger speaks out against US coronavirus evacuation plan - A passenger aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship, which is currently quarantined off the coast of Japan amid a coronavirus outbreak, is speaking out against the United States’ plan to evacuate American passengers. Matthew Smith, who has been quarantined with his wife since Feb. 5, told Fox News’ Neil Cavuto that he prefers to stay on the cruise ship. “Our greatest desire at this point is to maintain the quarantine that the Japanese health officials have established,” Smith said, “then get a test for the virus at the end of that quarantine so we can establish with relative certainty that we are not infected and be free to go. “Unfortunately, the State Department has thrown a monkey wrench into that,” he added. Approximately 400 Americans and their families on the Diamond Princess will be offered seats on two flights that could arrive at Travis Air Force Base near Sacramento, Calif., as early as Sunday, a CDC official told The Wall Street Journal. A CDC team will screen passengers and those exhibiting symptoms won’t be allowed on the flights. Smith, however, said he’s skeptical about the proposed plan. “I understand getting off the ship to be in another space, but under this circumstance, the offer is we’re going to put you on buses with other people who haven’t completed their quarantines and have not been tested for the virus,” Smith said. “We’re going to then put you on a plane with all these people and take you back to the United States, and because of the risk you still pose due to that situation we’re going to stick you in another quarantine.” Smith said he would rather stay put on the Diamond Princess ship. While the ship is “getting a bad rap” for its living conditions, Smith said he is content where he is.
Americans from quarantined cruise ship leave Japan -Two planes carrying Americans from the quarantined cruise ship Diamond Princess have left Japan.The aircraft chartered by the US government departed Tokyo's Haneda Airport in the early hours of Monday, Kyodo news agency reported.There were some 400 Americans on board the ship, which has been held since 3 February due to infections from the new coronavirus which has hit China.At least 40 US citizens are infected and will be treated in Japan.The Diamond Princess has been quarantined in Japan's port of Yokohama with some 3,700 passengers and crew on board.The ship was held after a man who disembarked in Hong Kong was found to have the virus.It has the largest cluster of coronavirus cases outside China. The Japanese authorities on Sunday said the number of new cases on board the ship had risen by 70 to 355. The Americans who are infected will receive medical treatment in Japan, Dr Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases told Face the Nation on CBS. It is not clear exactly how many are on board the evacuation flights which are expected to take them to Air Force bases. "If people on the plane start to develop symptoms, they'll be segregated within the plane," Dr Fauci said. Those entering the US will undergo a 14-day quarantine, on top of the time they have already spent confined on the ship.
Hundreds of Americans flown home from cruise ship, 14 with coronavirus - (Reuters) - More than 300 American cruise liner passengers, including 14 who tested positive for coronavirus, were flown home to military bases in the United States after two weeks under quarantine off Japan. The cruise ship Diamond Princess, which with more than 400 cases has by far the largest cluster outside China, has become the biggest test so far of other countries’ ability to contain an outbreak that has killed 1,772 people in China and five elsewhere. A ground crew in anti-contamination suits met the chartered jet that touched down at Joint Base San Antonio in Texas, and passengers could be seen climbing down the stairs wearing face masks in the pre-dawn mist. Another flight landed at Travis Air Force Base in California hours earlier. Although U.S. officials had said passengers with coronavirus symptoms would not be repatriated, 14 passengers found at the last minute to have tested positive were permitted to board the planes. The U.S. State Department said the infected passengers were exposed to other passengers for about 40 minutes before they were isolated. Across mainland China, the total number of coronavirus cases rose by 2,051 to 70,635, according to the World Health Organization. That was slightly more new cases than were reported on Sunday, but hundreds fewer than reported on Saturday. Chinese authorities say the decrease is a sign that measures taken to halt the spread of the disease are having an effect. However, epidemiologists say it is probably still too early to say how well the outbreak is being contained within China and its central Hubei province, where the virus first appeared. Official figures of new cases have leveled off in the past, only to jump suddenly after changes in methodology.
‘Wholly inappropriate’ quarantine practices may have helped spread coronavirus on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, experts say Quarantine efforts on a coronavirus-stricken cruise ship may have actually helped the virus spread, some experts say. The ship, called Diamond Princess, is carrying about 3,500 passengers and crew. It has been on a 14-day lockdown in the port of Yokohama, Japan, since it was originally scheduled to dock on February 4. The ship has seen an unprecedented rate of infection, hosting more coronavirus cases than any country besides China. On Saturday, Japan's Health Minister announced another 67 cases onboard, bringing the ship's total number of infections up to 286. One quarantine officer has even tested positive for the virus. "There is now ample evidence that this [quarantine] is not preventing the spread of cases within the ship and it is also posing a risk of spread within the ship," Tom Inglesby, an infectious-disease expert and director of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, told TIME. Since the quarantine began, passengers have been confined to their rooms, with meals delivered to their door every day. People who test positive for the virus have been taken off the ship and transported to medical facilities, according the cruise ship company and Japan's Ministry of Health. The main problem, several experts have said, has been the decision to keep passengers onboard the ship, especially those who have tested negative for the new coronavirus. "From a virologist's perspective, a cruise ship with a large number of persons on board is more an incubator for viruses rather than a good place for quarantine," Dr. Anne Gatignol, a microbiologist who studies viruses at McGill University, told the Montreal Gazette. As experts voice concerns over the quarantine's effectiveness, people onboard the ship have expressed fear and unhappiness with the living conditions. "I can't wrap my head around the fact that I could die from this cruise," Gay Courter, a 75-year-old novelist confined to a cabin on the ship with her husband, told The Wall Street Journal. "I go look outside and there's people in white hazmat suits." "There are no clear, obvious precedents for what needs to happen," Inglesby said.
Exclusive: Millions to be told ‘stay at home’ if coronavirus continues to spread – Telegraph - Anyone suffering flu-like symptoms could be ordered to “self-isolate” for a fortnight if the number of coronavirus cases in the UK hits the hundreds, in what would be a dramatic shift in Government strategy. Over the last week, hospitals across the country have created “isolation pods,” to ensure that anyone tested for the virus is kept away from other patients, with efforts to track all close contacts of confirmed cases. But The Telegraph understands that after a series of high-level meetings health officials are expected to change tack - and simply order anyone with possible symptoms of flu to stay at home - if the virus is not contained. That means millions of Britons with coughs and colds could end up quarantined at home, as part of attempts to dampen down spread of the virus....
Coronavirus cases in China's Hubei fall for second day, Apple and markets feel impact - 17th (Reuters) - New coronavirus cases in the Chinese province at the epicenter of the outbreak fell for a second straight day, but deaths rose after the World Health Organization had cautioned there was not yet enough data to know if the epidemic had slowed. Hubei reported 1,693 new cases as of Tuesday, down from 1,807 the previous day and the lowest number in the province since Feb. 11. But deaths rose by 132, up from 93 the previous day. The latest figures bring the total number of cases in China to over 74,000 with about 2,000 deaths. The head of a leading hospital in China’s central city of Wuhan, where the virus is believed to have originated, died of the disease, becoming one of the most prominent victims since the novel virus first appeared at the end of last year. Illustrating the impact of the outbreak on worldwide growth and corporate profits, oil prices tumbled and equity markets slid after Apple Inc (AAPL.O) issued a revenue warning due to the disruption the disease is causing to global supply chains. World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said Chinese data “appears to show a decline in new cases” but any apparent trend “must be interpreted very cautiously.” Outside China, there have been 827 cases of the disease, known as COVID-19, and five deaths, according to a Reuters count based on official statements. More than half of those cases have been on a cruise ship quarantined off Japan.
China Quarantines Cash to Sanitize Old Bank Notes From Coronavirus China is disinfecting and isolating used banknotes as part of efforts to stop the spread of the new coronavirus that has killed more than 1,500 people, officials said Saturday (Feb 15). Banks use ultraviolet light or high temperatures to disinfect yuan bills, then seal and store the cash for seven to 14 days - depending on the severity of the outbreak in a particular region - before recirculating them, China's central bank said at a press conference. The virus, which has infected more than 66,000 people in China and spread to more than two dozen other countries, has sparked a rush to disinfect public places and minimise contact between people. Pharmacies across the country sold out of disinfectants and surgical masks in just days after a lockdown was announced in late January on Wuhan city, where the COVID-19 illness is believed to have emerged. Office buildings have installed packets of tissue in elevators that tenants are encouraged to use when pressing buttons, while ride-hailing company Didi exhorts drivers to disinfect their cars daily. Fan Yifei, deputy governor of China's central bank, said Saturday that banks have been urged to provide new banknotes to customers whenever possible. The central bank made an "emergency issuance" of four billion yuan in new notes to Hubei province, the epicentre of the outbreak, prior to the recent Lunar New Year holiday, Fan added. The measures are intended to "secure the public's safety and health when using cash", Fan said.
Coronavirus: China announces drop in new cases for third straight day - China has announced a drop in new cases from the coronavirus outbreak for a third consecutive day. On Sunday, authorities reported 2,009 new cases and 142 more deaths nationwide. New cases spiked earlier in the week after a change in the way they were counted but have been falling ever since. In total more than 68,000 people have been infected in China, with the death toll standing at 1,665. Outside China there have been more than 500 cases in nearly 30 countries. Taiwan reported its first death from the illness on Sunday. The victim was a man in his 60s, who had not travelled abroad recently but who had diabetes and hepatitis B, Health Minister Chen Shih-chung said. Four others have died outside China - in France, Hong Kong, the Philippines and Japan. The measures China has taken to stop the spread of the coronavirus are starting to have an impact, Mi Feng, a spokesman at the National Health Commission, said on Sunday. In other developments:
- The number of people who have tested positive on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, which is being held in quarantine in Japan, has risen to 355
- A Chinese tourist has died in France - the first fatality outside Asia
- An 83-year-old American woman has tested positive after disembarking another cruise ship that was turned away by a number of countries before being allowed to dock in Cambodia
- In the UK, all but one of nine people being treated have been discharged from hospital
China has imposed more restrictions on the 60 million people living under lockdown in Hubei province - the centre of the outbreak - in an attempt to control the epidemic.The use of private cars has been banned and residents have been told to stay at home unless there's an emergency.Officials say there will be only one exception to this rule - every three days a single person from each household will be allowed out to buy food and other essential items. Meanwhile, authorities in the capital, Beijing, have ordered everyone returning to the city to go into quarantine for 14 days or risk punishment. China's central bank will also disinfect and store used banknotes before recirculating them in a bid to stop the virus spreading.
Death toll from China coronavirus jumps to 1,770 - The death toll from China's new coronavirus epidemic jumped to 1,770 after 105 more people died, the National Health Commission said Monday.More than 70,500 have now been infected nationwide by the virus, which first emerged in December in central Hubei province before spreading across the country.Chinese authorities have placed about 56 million people in Hubei and its capital Wuhan under quarantine, virtually sealing off the province from the rest of the country in an unprecedented effort to contain the virus.New cases outside of the epicentre have been declining for the last thirteen daysThere were 115 fresh cases outside the central province, according to the commission on Monday -- sharply down from nearly 450 a week ago.Local authorities elsewhere in China have introduced measures to try and stop the virus spreading, including a rule in Beijing requiring people coming to the capital to self-quarantine for 14 days, according to official media.Most cases are still in Hubei, where nearly 2,000 were reported Monday.The number of reported infections ballooned on Thursday last week after Hubei authorities changed their criteria for counting cases, retroactively adding 14,000 cases in a single day.Monday's figures for new cases were around 100 higher than those on Sunday but still sharply down on those from Friday and Saturday.A spokesman for China's national health authority said that the slowdown was a sign the outbreak was being controlled.However, World Health Organization chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has warned it is "impossible to predict which direction this epidemic will take".International experts have arrived in Beijing and begun meeting with their Chinese counterparts over the epidemic, Tedros said on Twitter.Global worries about its spread remain high and the epidemic's reach was highlighted by the US announcing that more than three dozen Americans from a cruise ship quarantined off Japan were infected.
Coronavirus: China reports 105 more deaths, taking global toll to 1,775, as some cases throw 14-day incubation into doubt - Mainland China’s health authority on Monday reported 2,048 new coronavirus cases and 105 deaths, taking its totals to 70,548 and 1,770 respectively as of midnight on Sunday. Hubei province, the epicentre of the outbreak, accounted for 100 of the new deaths and 1,933 of the newly confirmed cases – of which 1,690 were in the provincial capital of Wuhan. The figures took the totals announced by the province’s health commission to 1,696 and 58,182 respectively, while the global death toll stood at 1,775. New infections for the province and the country were up on the previous day, when China had reported 2,009 newly confirmed cases and 142 fatalities. The number of new cases had previously dropped three days in a row after a near-10-fold increase in confirmed cases on Thursday when the diagnostic criteria were widened.Henan province in central China has reported two coronavirus cases that took much longer to confirm than the previously estimated incubation period of up to 14 days. Incubation is the time between exposure to the virus and beginning to show symptoms. The government of Xinxian county, in the city of Xinyang, on Sunday reported that one of its new cases had been confirmed 34 days after the patient returned from a mid-January visit to Wuhan. He had been sent to hospital with suspected symptoms on January 28, but twice tested negative before testing positive on February 16. A further two people who attended family gatherings with the man in Xinxian were reported as infected, while three were suspected cases or under hospital quarantine. The county government announced it would extend the home quarantine period from 14 to 21 days for residents who had been to Hubei or had contact with people who had been there. It also reported a case that was confirmed 94 days after the patient’s contact with a relative from Hubei. The patient had taken care of his father-in-law, who arrived from Wuhan on November 13 and died days later. The son-in-law continued to stay in the father-in-law’s house until January 31. However, the government statement said the origin of the son-in-law’s infection had yet to be identified.
When will the coronavirus outbreak peak? - Coronavirus infections in China continue to swell by thousands a day, prompting epidemiologists to estimate when the outbreak will peak. Some suggest the climax, when the number of new infections in a single day reaches its highest point, will happen any time now. Others say that it is months away and that the virus will infect millions — or in one estimate hundreds of millions — of people first. Although peak predictions can be illuminating, some researchers warn that accuracy is difficult to achieve, especially when the data used in models are incomplete. “If you revise your predictions every week to say that the outbreak will peak in a week or two, eventually you will be correct,” On 11 February, Zhong Nanshan, a prominent Chinese physician leading a panel of experts helping to control the outbreak, said that the coronavirus will possibly peak by the end of February. Zhong, who is famous for discovering the SARS virus, said the situation had improved with government control measures, such as travel restrictions and extended holidays, although he admitted that it was still a “difficult period” for Wuhan. At least one model aligns with Zhong’s estimate. Researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine predict that the peak could occur anytime now. Sebastian Funk, a statistician who models infectious diseases and who coauthored the analysis, estimates that at the peak around a million people, about 10% of Wuhan's population, will be infected. Some researchers find such predictions overly optimistic. People in most Chinese cities started returning to work last week after an extended public-holiday period — opening up the possibility of new chains of transmission, says Hiroshi Nishiura, an epidemiologist at Hokkaido University in Sapporo, Japan. Nishiura says he has used a model that estimates that the outbreak will peak sometime between late March and late May. At this point, he says, up to 2.3 million cases will be diagnosed in a single day. In total, he estimates that between 550 million and 650 million people across China will be infected, roughly 40% of the country’s population. Nishiura says that about half of those people will show symptoms.Nishiura says he has submitted a paper describing the model and its prediction to the preprint server medRxiv. To make such a prediction, he says that his team considered the transmission potential inherent to the new virus — the basic reproduction number known as R0, which is related to R, although it assumes that everyone in the population is susceptible to infection. The team estimates the R0 is between 1.5 and 2. He says that his model presents a relatively simplistic outlook because it assumes that everyone in the population is susceptible. It also reflects the view that many people who have been infected are asymptomatic or not unwell enough to seek medical treatment. If that is the case, the current number of reported cases massively underestimates the number of people infected, he says.
China's Coronavirus Numbers Don't Add Up, And The White House Doesn't Believe Them - As we've been highlighting for weeks, China's official coronavirus numbers aren't adding up. The evidence is overwhelming; overloaded crematoriums in Hubei province, to the official death rate maintaining an improbable 2.1% (within + / - 0.1%) for weeks, to coronavirus deaths counted as pneumonia before they were able to test positive - and finally, all the bodies currently decomposing in apartments (government-sealed or not).Officially, there are currently 69,289 confirmed cases, and 1,670 fatalities, with 95% of those coming from China.To that end, Barron's notes that China's coronavirus numbers are "too perfect to mean much."A statistical analysis of China’s coronavirus casualty data shows a near-perfect prediction model that data analysts say isn’t likely to naturally occur, casting doubt over the reliability of the numbers being reported to the World Health Organization. That’s aside from news on Thursday that health officials in the epicenter of the outbreak reported a surge in new infections after changing how they diagnose the illness. –Barron's This week, the Trump administration said that it does "not have high confidence in the information coming out of China," while CNBC notes that Beijing has been reluctant to accept help from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and has been suppressing information about the outbreak from scientists that run counter to their prevailing narrative that everything is under control and the virus is peaking. U.S. officials’ mistrust of China goes as far back as the 1950s, when national authorities set unrealistic production quotas that led local officials to inflate data. Mishaps with the 2003 outbreak of SARS, which sickened 8,098 people and killed about 800 over nine months, and discrepancies in reporting of economic data over the past two decades has only hardened the U.S. government’s belief that China cannot be trusted, experts say. White House advisor Peter Navarro has even called China a “disease incubator.” –CNBC Meanwhile, the World Health Organization (WHO) - which receives the second-largest financial contribution from China after the United States - has been defending Beijing and praising their response while insisting that travel restrictions are unnecessary and racist (would spread "fear and stigma").
We’re Reading the Coronavirus Numbers Wrong - NYT - Everyone wants to know how deadly COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus, is. The technical term for that is the case fatality rate — which is, put simply, the number of people who have died from the disease (D) divided by the total number of people who were infected with it (I), or D/I. As of Tuesday morning, at least 1,873 people were thought to have diedfrom the disease worldwide and 72,869 people to have been infected.But those figures may not mean what you think.The number of deaths (D) seems like it should be easy enough to determine: After all, dead is dead. And yet ascribing a cause of death can be tricky.The coronavirus might be blamed for the deaths of vulnerable people, especially seniors, already suffering from other illnesses, such as diabetes and other chronic conditions. On the other hand, some deaths will be attributed to other illnesses that might more accurately be ascribed to COVID-19. Even more problematic is figuring out the total number of infected people (I) — call that the mystery of the denominator. Patients who have tested positive and are hospitalized are included in that tally, of course. But what about those who are being treated without formally having been tested? Or those who might be infected and yet display no symptoms? Another complicating factor is the remaining number of unresolved or indeterminate cases: Medical experts still aren’t sure, for example, how long the infection’s incubation period may be.And then, in addition to the uncertainty inherent in the basic numbers, there are the distortions unintentionally created by the way those numbers are reported by medical officials and presented by the media.Last week, the authorities of Hubei, the province in China at the center of the epidemic, revised their definition of what it means to be infected by the new coronavirus: On Thursday, they started including people who displayed symptoms associated with COVID-19 — coughing, a fever, difficulty breathing — even if those people hadn’t been tested or had tested negative for the virus. As a result, the number of new daily cases increased by a factor of nine overnight. Yet when news outlets reported last week, after the revision in what counts as an infection, the largest jump in reported cases “in a single day and more than twice the previous record high,” readers could be forgiven for assuming that the situation had just taken a turn for the worse. Even articles that stated the broader circumstances of the increase could be misleading: Some, by announcing in their headlines a “dramatic spike” or a “surge” in the number of cases; others, by discussing the swell while stating that local officials had been sacked for it.
Scientists question China’s decision not to report symptom-free coronavirus cases - Researchers are concerned that China’s official reports on the number of coronavirus infections have not been including people who have tested positive for the virus but who have no symptoms. They fear the practice is masking the epidemic’s true scale. But public health experts say China is right to prioritize tracking sick patients who are spreading the disease.Since the early days of the outbreak, the country’s National Health Commission has reported daily infection counts, which infectious-disease researchers outside China have been relying on to model the outbreak’s spread and severity.Earlier this month, officials from Heilongjiang province in northeast China announced that 13 people who had tested positive for the virus with a lab test but who had no symptoms had been removed from the region’s list of confirmed cases. Officials said that they were following the commission’s guidelines for reporting infections, which state that such people should be classified as ‘positive cases’ rather than ‘confirmed cases’. Only confirmed cases are noted in the commission’s official daily reports.The situation in Heilongjiang has put a spotlight on China’s reporting guidelines. These had already been getting attention after they were updated on 7 February to allow physicians to confirm cases using images from chest scans rather than waiting days for lab tests. The change in diagnostic criteria saw infections in Hubei, the province at the centre of the epidemic, jump by nearly 15,000 cases in a single day last week. Wu Zunyou, the chief epidemiologist at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention in Beijing, who helps to implement the guidelines, says that they have always required that positive cases not be counted as confirmed cases. Instead, those who test positive are isolated for 14 days and monitored by health authorities. If they develop symptoms in that period, they are classified as a confirmed case.
Coronavirus: Largest study suggests elderly and sick are most at risk - BBC -Health officials in China have published the first details of more than 44,000 cases of Covid-19, in the biggest study since the outbreak began. Data from the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDC) finds that more than 80% of the cases have been mild, with the sick and elderly most at risk.The research also points to the high risk to medical staff.A hospital director in the city of Wuhan died from the virus on Tuesday.Liu Zhiming, 51, was the director of the Wuchang Hospital in Wuhan - one of the leading hospitals in the virus epicentre. He is one of the most senior health officials to die so far.Hubei, whose capital is Wuhan, is the worst affected province in the country. The report by the CCDC shows the province's death rate is 2.9% compared with 0.4% in the rest of the country.The findings put the overall death rate of the Covid-19 virus at 2.3%. China's latest official figures released on Tuesday put the overall death toll at 1,868 and 72,436 infections.
Hospital director in China's coronavirus epicentre dies from disease himself - The director of the hospital in China's coronavirus epicentre has died from the disease himself. Dr Liu Zhiming, director of Wuhan Wuchang Hospital, died today from the virus officially named COVID 19. The coronavirus death toll in mainland China reached 1,770 on Sunday, up by 105 from the previous day, the country's National Health Commission has said. The number of new deaths in China's central Hubei province from the coronavirus outbreak rose by 100 as of Sunday. Across mainland China, there were 2,048 new confirmed infections on Sunday. The total accumulated number so far has reached 70,548. The latest rise in the number of reported new cases of coronavirus in Hubei after two days of falls, comes as authorities imposed tough new restrictions on movement to prevent the spread of the disease. The tighter lockdown on the central province where the flu-like virus originated in December came as American passengers were taken off a cruise liner on Sunday to fly home after being quarantined for two weeks off Japan. Seventy new coronavirus cases were confirmed on board the Diamond Princess where 3,700 passengers and crew have been held since February 3. Some 355 people on board have tested positive for the disease, by far the largest cluster of cases outside China. Canadian, Italian, South Korean and Hong Kong passengers were expected to follow soon, after their governments also announced plans to repatriate passengers.
China postpones year’s biggest political gathering amid coronavirus outbreak China’s annual parliamentary meeting, which was scheduled for early March, will almost certainly be postponed because of the Covid-19 outbreak. The state news agency Xinhua reported that the standing committee of the National People’s Congress (NPC) would discuss the delay later this month – effectively indicating that it would be put back. Zang Tiewei, a spokesman for the NPC legislative affairs commission, told Xinhua that deferring the March meeting would allow government officials to concentrate on controlling the outbreak, which has killed more than 1,700 people. Zang said one third of the national legislators were also local government officials who are currently working to stop the disease spreading. No new date for the meeting has been announced.Xinhua also reported that the leaders of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) had discussed delaying the full meeting in March and one for senior political advisers at the end of this month. A mainland source who is familiar with the preparations said the risks of going ahead with the annual sessions of the NPC and CPPCC – commonly known as the “two sessions” – were too high. “The health risk of convening the annual sessions early next month would be too high when the coronavirus outbreak has not yet been effectively contained,” the source said. “The risk of cross infections would be very high for nearly 8,000 people … as well as staff responsible for administering the meetings, under the same roof of the Great Hall of the People,” the source said.
Coronavirus ‘lab leakage’ rumors spreading - "Outbreak 'could have started' in Wuhan facility, as first patient never went to wet market identified as source". A Wuhan lab affiliated with the Chinese Academy of Sciences has sought to dispel rumors that it “made and leaked” the highly infectious pneumonic virus that led to the still-raging global outbreak. While Chinese President Xi Jinping was briefed about the public health threat by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDC) in early January, the government decided against sounding the alarm because it did not want to “mar the festive vibe” during the Lunar New Year celebrations. The Wuhan Institute of Virology, located in the provincial capital of Hubei, which is the ground zero of the contagion, has been thrust into the media spotlight by the allegation last week that it leaked “bio-hazardous agents.” Posts circulating on WeChat and Weibo claim that a researcher at the institute was the first to be infected by the novel coronavirus, now called Covid-19 by the World Health Organization. The female virologist and a graduate from the institute, referred to as “patient zero,” had never visited the city’s shambolic wet market – also known as the “zoo” – where a range of wild animals were sold. The market has been identified by the authorities as the most probable source of the deadly pathogen. In a statement released on Sunday, the lab stressed that the researcher had left the city in 2015 and was in good health, refusing to release more information about her for privacy reasons.
Ukrainian villagers STONE buses bringing countrymen evacuated from Wuhan to coronavirus quarantine RT - Ukrainians evacuated from Wuhan, China, have been less than welcomed at a village hosting the coronavirus quarantine facility. Videos show locals throwing stones at buses with evacuees, burning tires and clashing with police. Dozens of villagers first attempted to block the road leading to Novye Sanzhary, in the Poltava region of central Ukraine, and stop the government’s plan to quarantine the Ukrainian evacuees from Wuhan there. Their roadblocks were removed by force, with police using armored vehicles and arresting several locals. Later on Thursday, the villagers gathered outside the local medical facility and threw stones at the buses bringing in the evacuees, smashing windows and damaging the vehicles. “I urge the protesters not to violate the law. All attempts to commit offenses will be stopped,” Ivan Vygovsky, head of the Poltava regional police, said in a statement. This is not the first such protest in Ukraine. Earlier this week, roadblocks were set up in the Ternopil and Lviv regions in the west, following rumors that the government was planning to set up quarantine facilities there.
Coronavirus: Joshua Wong’s Demosisto imports 100,000 face masks to give to underprivileged Hongkongers amid shortage Hong Kong activist Joshua Wong has said that his pro-democracy Demosisto group has purchased 100,000 face masks from the US for Hongkongers. They will be given to district councillors to hand to those in need. There have been 49 confirmed cases of the new SARS-like “covid-19” virus in Hong Kong, including one death. Globally, there have been 45,000 cases and over 1,100 deaths. Stocks of surgical masks around the city dried up several weeks ago with orders from overseas often cancelled before they were shipped. Wong said Tobias Leung – a standing committee member of Demosisto – started contacting mask manufacturers at the end of last month. Wong thanked contacts in Washington for securing the masks, including overseas Hongkongers and groups such as the Hong Kong Democracy Council and NY4HK. “Hongkongers owe them our deep gratitude for their generous support. When the Hong Kong government is reducing into a failed state and completely mishandles the coronavirus [outbreak], it proves once again that a robust civil society with strong international networks is the only way out for Hong Kong,” Wong said. “We gathered a large amount of funds locally so that we could transfer them to the US in order to block orders from mainland China from using cash to race against us,” Wong said. He added that there was a lack of cargo planes available and they had to pay more than triple the normal price to fly the masks to Hong Kong.
Coronavirus live updates: China death toll hits 1,868, as more than 450 on cruise ship test positive - China’s National Health Commission said there were 1,886 confirmed new cases on the mainland and 98 additional deaths related to the new, deadly strain of coronavirus, most of them occurring in Hubei province (see 7 a.m. update). As of Feb. 17, the Chinese government said there was a total of 72,436 confirmed cases and 1,868 people have died so far. Out of a total of 1,723 passengers and crew members tested on board the quarantined Diamond Princess cruise ship off the coast of Japan, 454 people were confirmed to have been infected, Japan’s health ministry said. That included 189 asymptomatic carriers, or those who tested positive but did not show any symptoms, according to the ministry. Countries, including the United States, have started repatriating their stranded citizens on chartered planes. U.S. officials said they received notice that 14 passengers had tested positive and they were allowed to be evacuated while kept in isolation from other passengers. The ship had been quarantined since Feb. 3 after a previous guest tested positive for the disease six days after disembarking. German automaker Volkswagen told CNBC that its joint ventures in China are working to get production back to their normal schedule. SAIC Volkswagen, a joint venture with China’s SAIC Motor, postponed restarting production at their plants until Feb. 24. FAW-Volkswagen, a partnership with FAW Group, has started work in some factories and expects to resume full operations in the coming days. “We are working hard on getting back to our normal production schedule, while facing delays due to national supply chain and logistics challenges as well as limited travel options for production employees,” a spokesperson for Volkswagen Group China told CNBC. “Production feasibility at each plant is checked individually, resulting in different starting times.”
Japan issues guidelines to prevent rush on hospitals as COVID-19 cases surge The health ministry on Monday released guidelines for people who fear they have been infected with COVID-19 as officials said 99 more aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship, including 43 Japanese citizens, had tested positive. The newly identified people raised the total toll from the vessel to 454. A total of 3,711 passengers and crew were originally aboard the liner, but the total has dropped to about 3,100 as many elderly were allowed to disembark and some were transported to a hospital on land. Meanwhile, many public events have been scrapped or scaled down due to fears of an epidemic. The government issued the guidelines — which cover issues like when to get checked at a hospital — after experts said the coronavirus outbreak in Japan had entered a new phase, spreading among residents not directly linked to China. Medical workers are concerned that large numbers of people suffering from cold-like symptoms, whether or not they are infected with the coronavirus, will flood hospitals and strain resources. The guidelines urge people to stay home if they have symptoms. If symptoms grow serious, they are advised to call a special consultation center set up by the government. “How patients go see a doctor is a crucial factor,” Takaji Wakita, the head of the National Institute of Infectious Diseases, said Sunday. “What we’ve come to know so far is there are many who only went through mild symptoms. … Those with mild symptoms are advised not to visit an outpatient doctor but call the consultation center.”
Coronavirus live updates: Iran confirms two deaths, IMF chief issues warning on global growth - Two Iranians have died in hospital after testing positive for the new coronavirus in the holy Shi’ite city of Qom, the head of the city’s University of Medical Sciences told Mehr news agency on Wednesday. “Two Iranians, who tested positive earlier today for new coronavirus, died of respiratory illness,” the official told Mehr. Iran’s health ministry spokesman Kianush Jahanpur confirmed their death on Twitter. Iran confirmed earlier in the day its first two cases of the virus, government spokesman Ali Rabiei said, shortly after reports that preliminary tests on the two had come back positive.The health ministry said earlier that the patients had beenput in isolation. — Reuters International Monetary Fund head Kristalina Georgieva said the COVID-19 outbreak is the “most pressing uncertainty” for the global economy. The new coronavirus is going to slow China’s economic growth for the year — just how much depends on how well world leaders can contain the fast-spreading outbreak, she said in a blog post. “There are a number of scenarios, depending on how quickly the spread of the virus is contained,” she said. If it’s contained quickly, she said, China’s overall 2020 GDP growth will be hurt, but just slightly and cross-border spillover would remain minimal. “However, a long-lasting and more severe outbreak would result in a sharper and more protracted growth slowdown in China. Its global impact would be amplified through more substantial supply chain disruptions and a more persistent drop in investor confidence, especially if the epidemic spreads beyond China.”
As COVID-19 death toll exceeds 2,000, Russia imposes blanket ban on entry of Chinese nationals - International Business Times - On Tuesday, February 18, mainland China reported 1,749 new cases of COVID-19 infection along with 136 fatalities. This has led to the total number of fatalities exceeding 2,000, with over 99.75 percent reported in the mainland itself. 1,749 cases along with 136 new deaths were reported in the Chinese mainland. This has brought the total number of infection cases to 74,185 along with 2,004 deaths, Global Times reported. China's hard-hit Hubei province, that has served as the epicenter of the virus outbreak, reported 1,693 new cases and 132 fatalities. Thus, the numbers have reduced from the previous day, where Hubei reported 1,749 cases and 136 fatalities. As of Tuesday, Hubei has reported a total of 61,682 infection cases and 1,921 fatalities. The number of cases outside Hubei has declined for the 15th consecutive day, with 56 cases reported on Tuesday. Hubei's capital, Wuhan, where the disease is said to have originated from a local sea-food and wet market, reported 1,660 new cases along with 116 fatalities. Tuesday marked the first day where the number of recovered patients, 1,824, surpassed the number of newly confirmed cases, 1,749, Global Times reported. On Tuesday, Russia announced that it will impose a blanket ban on the entry of all Chinese nationals, from Thursday, February 20, onwards, South China Morning Post reported. "From 00:00 local time on February 20, 2020, the passage of citizens from the People's Republic of China across the state border of the Russian Federation is temporarily suspended," the statement by the office of Russian Deputy Prime Minister, Tatyana Golikova said. Till now, Russia has reported two coronavirus cases, both of whom are Chinese citizens who have been quarantined in Siberia. Meanwhile, on Wednesday, February 19, South Korea reported 15 new cases, bringing the total tally to 46, Reuters reported. Eleven of those cases were linked to a single patient, a 61-year-old woman. Ten of them attended the same church as the woman. She developed a fever on February 10 but refused to be tested for the coronavirus on the grounds that she had not traveled abroad recently. On Tuesday, she became the 31st confirmed case in South Korea.
Two Cruise Deaths Reported; South Korea Cases Soar: Virus Update - Two people from the quarantined cruise ship in Japan have died, NHK reported, while coronavirus cases in South Korea more than doubled in one day, with a surge of infections tied to a church. Stocks came under pressure on signs the outbreak was spreading more rapidly beyond China. The death toll in mainland China rose to 2,118 as Hubei province added 108 fatalities. China’s banks lowered the benchmark borrowing costs for loans as Beijing seeks to blunt the economic impact of the outbreak. The novel coronavirus is shed in the feces of infected people, which may help explain why it’s spread so fast, according to Chinese researchers. The finding of live virus particles in stool specimens indicates a fecal-oral route for coronavirus, which may be why it’s caused outbreaks on cruise ships with an intensity often seen with gastro-causing norovirus, which also spreads along that pathway. More than 600 Covid-19 infections were confirmed among passengers and crew aboard the Diamond Princess, the ship quarantined for two weeks in Yokohama, Japan. “This virus has many routes of transmission, which can partially explain” its rapid spread, the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention said in a report Saturday. The agency recommends strengthening sanitation and hygiene measures to prevent fecal-oral transmission in epidemic area. Japan said two people who were on the cruise ship off Yokohama died from the novel coronavirus, NHK reported, citing an unidentified government official. The fatalities were a man and woman, both Japanese nationals in their 80s, who had existing medical conditions, NHK reported. Confirmed coronavirus cases in South Korea have more than doubled within a day, to 82, with a surge tied to a church whose members may have contracted the virus from a single person.South Korea’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in a statement that of the 31 new confirmed cases, 24 attended the “same Korean cult” with at least five of them having an “epidemiological link“ to a patient confirmed with the coronavirus earlier this week. The Temple of the Tabernacle of the Testimony, formerly known as Shincheonji Church of Jesus, said in a statement on its website that the patient identified as No. 31 by KCDC attended a worship service in one of its churches in Daegu. The pastor told local media that some 1,000 people attended the same service. The outbreak in Daegu, a city about 235 kilometers (150 miles) south of Seoul, has raised renewed concerns about the virus in South Korea after a lull in reported cases last week.
Coronavirus outbreak in South Korea linked to Shincheonji Christian sect - South Korea has reported a large boost in the number of COVID-19 coronavirus cases, the majority of which have been linked to a minor Christian sect in the country. Authorities confirmed 73 new cases, 42 of which were directly or indirectly connected to Shincheonji Church of Jesus, the Temple of the Tabernacle of the Testimony — a religious movement which worships its founder Lee Man-hee as the second coming of Jesus Christ. The mayor of the central Korean city of Daegu, where the affected Shincheonji congregation is based, urged its 2.5 million people to refrain from going outside as new cases spiked. Mayor Kwon Young-jin made the appeal in a nationally televised news conference, pleading for assistance from the central government. Mr Kwon also asked Daegu citizens to wear masks even indoors if possible. South Korea's Centres for Disease Control and Prevention described the outbreak there as a "super-spreading event." A 61-year-old woman known as "Patient 31" is thought to have spread the disease to dozens of people who attended religious services at the church. Patient 31 assumed she was suffering from the common cold and kept coming to her Daegu church because she did not travel overseas, church officials said. "The Daegu branch has been shut down since this morning and is conducting prevention measures," the statement said. "We think it's deeply regrettable … for causing concerns to the local community." One other person, who came in contact with her at a hospital, has also come down with the virus.
34 Coronavirus Cases Confirmed in the United States: CDC -- Thirty-four patients have tested positive for the new coronavirusin the United States, federal officials said on Friday, after another patient tested positive late Thursday. Twenty-one of the patients were repatriated from foreign countries by the State Department. Groups were quarantined at military bases after being repatriated from the Diamond Princess cruise ship, where hundreds of infections emerged, and Wuhan, China, where the virus first emerged in December 2019.All but three of the 21 patients were passengers on the ship, which is docked in Yokohama, Japan, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said. The other 13 patients weren’t among the groups that were repatriated. The number is one less than the number that the CDC has listed on its website as of Friday afternoon. The last patient to test positive was in Humboldt County, California. That patient returned from mainland China, Dr. Nancy Messonnier, a top CDC official, told reporters in a phone call on Friday. The Department of Health and Human Services said that a close contact of the patient is showing symptoms and is being tested. Both “are doing well and self-isolating at home,” the department said in a statement.
Hospitals across the US prepare for coronavirus outbreak to become global pandemic - A larger spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus across the U.S. could overwhelm emergency rooms and cause supply shortages of some crucial medical supplies. The threat of the new virus comes at an already busy time for most U.S. hospitals: Seasonal flu is at its peak. “This is the time to open up your pandemic plans and see that things are in order,” Dr. Anne Schuchat, a top official of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, urged hospitals last week as an outbreak of a deadly new coronavirus ravaged much of China. “For instance,” she continued, health-care providers need to plan for a “surge at a hospital, the ability to provide personal protective equipment for your workforce, the administrative controls and so forth that you might put place in a health care setting.” Schuchat’s warning came as U.S. and world health officials increasingly sound the alarm of a possible pandemic outbreak of the deadly new coronavirus that has killed more than 2,100 people in China in the last seven weeks. The COVID-19 epidemic in China has not yet met world health officials’ designation of a global pandemic that spreads far and wide throughout the world. While it has spread to more than two dozen countries, international health officials say there’s very little transmission on local levels outside of China right now. But they’ve warned that could quickly change. The virus is proving to be far more contagious than the flu, having spread from 300 people in mid-January to more than 75,700 as of Thursday morning. While a majority of those cases are in China — with just 15 confirmed in the U.S. — the CDC has been working with the health-care sector to prepare for the virus to “take a foothold in the U.S,” Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters Feb. 12.“At some point, we are likely to see community spread in the U.S. or in other countries,” she warned.
Coronavirus live updates: Air travel set to decline for first time since 2009, FBI stocks up on hand sanitizer and masks - Global air travel demand is set to decline for the first time since 2009 because of coronavirus, the International Air Transport Association said Thursday. Pauses in corporate travel and overall slumping demand due to warnings of the rapidly-spreading illness have prompted carriers to suspend service or drastically reduce China service. The outbreak will cost Chinese airlines $12.8 billion in revenue and nearly $29 billion for carriers in the Asia-Pacific region, IATA estimated. The trade group, which represents most of the world’s airlines, had forecast demand growth in 2020 of 4.1%, which it’s now revised to a contraction of The U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation has ordered $40,000 of hand sanitizer and face masks “in case the coronavirus becomes a pandemic in the United States,” according to the acquisition document. The FBI’s “pandemic preparedness” supply order includes face masks from manufacturer 3M and disinfectants, including hand sanitizer, from PDI Healthcare, the document said. In its purchase order, the FBI said it needs to have those items on hand if the coronavirus, or COVID-19, spreads widely throughout the U.S. The masks and disinfectants “are to be stored throughout the country for distribution in the event of a declared pandemic,” according to the document, which was signed Friday and gave the companies a week to fulfill the order. World health officials said that the new coronavirus has not yet spread widely around the world, but emphasized that the virus could break out globally at any time. “The number of cases in the rest of the world is very small compared to what we have in China, but that may not stay the same for long,” World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told reporters at the organization’s headquarters in Geneva on Thursday. Ukraine’s effort to quarantine more than 70 people evacuated from China over the new virus outbreak plunged into chaos Thursday as local residents opposing the move engaged in violent clashes with police. Several hundred residents of the village of Novi Sanzhary in Ukraine’s central Poltava region blocked the road to a sanitarium intended to host the evacuees. Demonstrators put up road blocks, burned tires and clashed with riot police who moved to clear access. More than 10 people were detained, and Ukraine’s Interior Minister Arsen Avakov personally visited the site of the protests to try to calm the crowd down. Avakov urged the protesters “not to fall for provocations and be understanding of the necessity for these temporary measures.”
Chinese Coronavirus Patient Reinfected 10 Days After Leaving Hospital - As we first reported on Monday, shortly after the US decided to break the quarantine surrounding the Diamond Princess cruise ship which had emerged as the single-biggest locus of coronavirus cases outside of China, hundreds of weary, homesick Americans were on their way home, U.S. officials wrestled with troubling news: new test results showed that 14 passengers were infected with the virus. The problem: the U.S. State Department had promised that no one with the infection would be allowed to board the planes. At this point, according to the Washington Post, a fierce debate broke out in Washington, where it was still Sunday afternoon: The State Department and a top Trump administration health official wanted to forge ahead. At this point, officials at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention disagreed, contending they could still spread the virus. The CDC believed the 14 should not be flown back with uninfected passengers. In the end, the State Department won the argument. In retrospect, the CDC will soon be proven correct in its dire warning that repatriating a full plane of both infected and healthy individuals could be a catastrophic error, because it now appears that not only can the virus remain latent for as long as 42 days, 4 weeks longer than traditionally assumed, resulting in numerous false negative cases as infected carrier slip across borders undetected, but far more ominously, it now appears that the diseases can re-infect recently "cured" patients, because as Taiwan News reports, a Chinese patient who just recovered from the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) has been infected for the second time in the province of Sichuan, according to local health officials.On Wednesday (Feb. 19), the People's Daily reported that a man in Sichuan's capital Chengdu had tested positive for the virus during a regular check-up just ten days after being discharged from the hospital. The report said he had previously been cleared of the virus by medical staff.The Sichuan Health Commission confirmed the news on Friday (Feb. 21) and issued a community warning announcement in the patient's neighborhood. The announcement said that the man and his family had been transported to a nearby health facility on Thursday morning (Feb. 20) and that health officials had sanitized the entire community, reported Liberty Times.According to ETtoday, the patient and his family had been under home quarantine and had not left the house since Feb. 10. The authorities are still investigating the cause of the reinfection. The news has stirred up heated reactions from Chinese netizens. Some suspect that the hospital discharged the man before he was fully recovered, and many have expressed concern about the worsening epidemic. Several doctors from Wuhan, the epicenter of COVID-19, said last week that it is possible for recovered patients to contract the virus a second time. They warned that a recurring infection could be even more damaging to a patient's body and that the tests are susceptible to false negatives.
29 Year-Old Doctor Treating Patients in Coronavirus Epicenter Dies From Disease - Peng Yinhua passed away from the COVID-19 coronavirus on Feb. 20, and became the latest medical staff in China to succumb to the disease. Peng, 29, was a doctor at the Jiangxia district People’s No. 1 Hospital in Wuhan City, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak. When his condition became critical, he was given a plasma transfusion. But he could not recover. This month, there were two other confirmed cases of doctors who died from the disease after contracting the virus from treating patients: Liu Zhiming, director of the Wuchang Hospital in Wuhan, and Li Wenliang, a whistleblower doctor from Wuhan Central Hospital. According to a Feb. 17 study published by a group of doctors from China’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention in the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology magazine, 3,019 medical staff across the country have been infected with the coronavirus between Dec. 8, 2019 to Feb. 11. According to their tally, five of them passed away (not counting Liu and Peng). In July 2019, Peng started working at the respiratory and critical medicine department of the Jiangxia district People’s No. 1 Hospital in Wuhan. On Dec. 21, 2019, the hospital received its first COVID-19 coronavirus patient. Since then, Peng began treating virus patients, according to the Yangtze River Daily. On Jan. 25, Peng showed symptoms of the virus. A CT scan showed that his lungs were infected. His colleagues arranged for him to receive treatment in the hospital. “He [Peng] was diagnosed with the coronavirus on Jan. 30, and was transferred to Jinyintan Hospital, the designated coronavirus hospital. On Feb. 10, his condition deteriorated,” Peng’s wife Zhong Xin told state-run media The Paper on Feb. 21. His wife is pregnant with their first child. “We registered to be husband and wife two years ago. We planned to have a wedding ceremony on Feb. 1,” Zhong said. “Because he didn’t know where the outbreak was headed, we decided to postpone the ceremony.”
China says spread of deadly coronavirus slowing; death toll climbs - China reported a further fall in new virus cases to 889 on Friday as health officials expressed optimism over containment of the outbreak that has caused more than 2,200 deaths and is spreading elsewhere. Containment of the illness has been a struggle far from the epicenter in central China as a major South Korean city urged residents to stay indoors. New infections in China have been falling for days, although changes in how it counts cases have caused doubts about the true trajectory of the epidemic. “The downward trend will not be reversed,” insisted Ding Xiangyang, deputy chief secretary of the State Council and a member of the central government’s supervision group said on Thursday. China’s figures for the previous 24 hours brought the total number of cases to 75,465. The 118 newly reported deaths raised the total to 2,236. More than 1,000 cases and 11 deaths have been confirmed outside the mainland.
Death toll in China's coronavirus jumps to 2,236; confirmed cases cross 75,400 - The death toll in China's novel coronavirus has gone up to 2,236 with 118 more deaths reported, mostly from the hard-hit Hubei province, while the overall confirmed infection cases have climbed to 75,465, Chinese health officials said on Friday. The number of deaths is higher than the previous day when 114 people died of the disease, but the country reported the lowest number of new infection cases in nearly a month, fuelling hopes that Beijing's epidemic control efforts were working. ..
Coronavirus- South Korea 'emergency' measures as infections increase - South Korea has stepped up measures to contain the spread of the deadly new coronavirus, as confirmed infections increased sharply for a second day. PM Chung Sye-kyun said it was now an emergency as 100 new cases and the country's second death were confirmed. The virus has also spread in Iran, which reported two further deaths among 13 new cases, bringing the total number of deaths there to four. Lebanon also announced its first confirmed case. In Iran the outbreak is centred on the holy city of Qom, south of the capital Tehran, but health ministry official Minou Mohrez said the virus may already have spread to "all cities in Iran". The case in Lebanon was a 45-year-old woman who had travelled from Qom, Lebanese Health Minister Hassan Hamad said. World Health Organization (WHO) officials said both Iran and Lebanon had the basic capacity to detect the virus and the WHO was contacting them to offer further assistance. "The measures China and others have taken have given us a fighting chance of containing the spread of the virus," WHO chief Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said. "Our window of opportunity is narrowing so we need to act quickly," he added. The southern cities of Daegu and Cheongdo have been declared "special care zones". The streets of Daegu are now largely abandoned. All military bases are in lockdown after three soldiers tested positive. About 9,000 members of a religious group were told to self quarantine, after the sect was identified as a coronavirus hotbed. The authorities suspect the current outbreak in South Korea originated in Cheongdo, pointing out that a large number of sect followers attended a funeral of the founder's brother from 31 January to 2 February. On Friday, a second person who contracted the coronavirus died.
“It Looks Like A Zombie Apocalypse” - City Streets Deserted Amid Surge In Korean COVID-19 Cases - Seemingly overnight, the public attitude toward the coronavirus outbreak in South Korea has gone from simmering apprehension to full-blown paranoia. And nowhere is that more apparent than in Daegu, the country's fourth-largest city, with a population of 2.5 million people - roughly one-tenth of the South's total population.As the South Korean government debates whether to raise the alert level, the mayor of Daegu has asked all of the city's residents to avoid venturing outside as the government tracks down, tests and quarantines all the members of a church where an infected woman is believed to have spread the virus to more than 40 people.As a result, the usually bustling streets of Daegu have suddenly gone quiet: Residents who spoke to Reuters described empty streets in the city center, deserted storefronts and a pervasive "climate of fear".On social media, some Koreans are trying to inject a little levity into the conversation. Following a news report where a local described the environment as "a Zombie Apocalypse", some posted clips from the infamous Korean zombie movie "Train to Busan." Overnight, South Korea reported its first virus-linked death, and on Thursday malls, storefronts, bars and restaurants were all empty, along with the streets of Daegu.The most crowded streets in the city were abandoned. "It’s like someone dropped a bomb in the middle of the city. It looks like a zombie apocalypse," Kim Geun-woo, a 28-year-old resident told Reuters by telephone.
Virus cases jump in S Korea to 346, China daily count drops -- South Korea on Saturday reported a six-fold jump in viral infections in four days to 346, most of them linked to a church and a hospital in and around the fourth-largest city where schools were closed and worshipers and others told to avoid mass gatherings. Initial infections were linked to China, but new cases in South Korea and Iran — where there have been four deaths — don't show a clear connection to travel there. In an emerging cluster of illnesses in northern Italy, the first to fall ill met with someone who had returned from China on Jan. 21 without experiencing any symptoms of the new virus, health authorities said. China said Saturday the daily count of new virus cases there fell significantly to 397, with another 109 people dying of the disease, most in the epicenter of Hubei province. The new figures bring the total number of cases in mainland China to 76,288 with 2,345 deaths, as strict quarantine measures and travel bans continue to contain the disease that emerged in China in December and has since spread worldwide. The daily figure is down from 889 on Friday. Of the 142 new cases in South Korea, 131 are from Daegu and nearby regions, which have emerged as the latest front in the widening global fight against COVID-19. South Korea’s Vice Health Minister Kim Gang-lip said Saturday that the outbreak had entered a serious new phase, but still expressed cautious optimism that it can be contained to the region surrounding Daegu, where the first case was reported on Tuesday. By Saturday morning, the city of 2.5 million and nearby areas counted 283 cases, including South Korea’s first two fatalities in Cheongdo hospital. The central government has declared the area as a “special management zone” and is channeling support to ease a shortage in hospital beds, medical personnel and equipment. “Although we are beginning to see some more cases nationwide, infections are still sporadic outside of the special management zone of Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province,” Kim said during a briefing. He called for maintaining strong border controls to prevent infections from China and elsewhere from entering South Korea. Nationwide, the numbers told of a ballooning problem. There were 20 new cases reported Wednesday, 53 on Thursday and 100 on Friday. Around 170 of those have been directly linked to a single house of worship, a Daegu branch of the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, where a woman in her 60s attended two services before testing positive for the virus. Officials are also investigating a possible link between churchgoers and the spike in infections at the Cheongdo hospital, where 111 people have so far been infected, mostly patients at a mental illness ward. Kim said health officials were screening some 9,300 of the church followers who were in self-quarantine at their homes, and that about 540 have exhibited cough and other symptoms. The virus patients at the Cheongdo hospital were transferred to other facilities, but 17 of them were in critical condition, Kim said without elaborating.
New coronavirus cases fall in China but fears grow over global spread - (Reuters) - China reported a sharp fall in new deaths and cases of the coronavirus on Saturday but world health officials warned it was too early to make predictions about the outbreak as new infections continued to rise in other countries. Chinese authorities said the mainland had 397 new confirmed cases on Friday, down from 889 a day earlier. The numbers surged elsewhere, though, with outbreaks worsening in South Korea, Iran, Italy and Lebanon. In South Korea, authorities said on Saturday the number of new infections had doubled to 433, and suggested the tally could rise significantly as more than 1,000 people who attended a church at the center of the outbreak reported flu-like symptoms. The World Health Organization welcomed the reported decline in new Chinese cases, but said it was concerned about the number of new infections elsewhere with no clear link to China such as travel history or contact with a confirmed case. “Our biggest concern continues to be the potential for COVID-19 (the new virus) to spread in countries with weaker health systems,” WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said. The U.N. agency is calling for $675 million to support most vulnerable countries, he said, adding 13 countries in Africa are seen as a priority because of their links to China. ADVERTISEMENT
Coronavirus: more deaths confirmed as authorities around the world struggle to contain outbreak – as it happened - More than 78,000 people around the world have been confirmed to have been infected by the Covid-19 virus, with most cases in mainland China, though clusters that have unclear origins have emerged in Singapore, Iran and South Korea. Five people have now died from the coronavirus in Iran, prompting World Health Organization head to say Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus he was especially concerned about the country. Carnival celebrations were banned in some Italian towns after they were placed on lockdown following the deaths of two people from the coronavirus. The UK residents who were trapped on the Diamond Princess cruise ship off the coast of Japan for more than two weeks were sent to an isolation facility on Merseyside for a further 14 days of isolation at a facility after landing back in the south of England on a Ministry of Defence flight. A British couple diagnosed with the coronavirus also have pneumonia, after spending two weeks in quarantine onboard the coronavirus-stricken Princess Diamond. The family of David and Sally Abel, from Northamptonshire, said they had been moved to a “prison”-like hospital. Around 100 more passengers were allowed to disembark from the cruise ship on Saturday, as Japan’s health minister apologised after 23 others were allowed to leave without being properly tested. Around 150 people brought to a hotel in Milton Keynes earlier this month after being evacuated from Wuhan will be discharged tomorrow following a two-week period in quarantine. There is uncertainty in Singapore, where eight out of 85 infections appear to have no links to previous cases, and in South Korea, where links to a controversial church are being investigated. Samsung shut a mobile device factory in South Korea after a worker tested positive for coronavirus, while organisers for the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics postponed training for volunteers because of the spread of the coronavirus.
China coronavirus outbreak: All the latest updates | Al Jazeera - The spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus has intensified around the world, with South Korean cases more than doubling to reach 433 - the highest number outside of China. Italy on Saturday confirmed its first two deaths from the virus as authorities moved to close schools, bars and other public spaces in 10 northern towns. Meanwhile in the Middle East, Iran's health ministry reported a sixth death on Saturday, a day after Israel and Lebanon confirmed their first cases. Mainland China noted a significant fall in the number of new cases, with 397 reported on Saturday. The total number of cases in mainland China to 76,288 and there have been 2,345 deaths. The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that the window of opportunity to stem the deadly epidemic was "narrowing" amid concern about a surge in cases with no clear link to China. Israel has expanded quarantine regulations, requiring all those returning from South Korea and Japan to remain in isolation for two weeks. Quarantine was previously mandated for Israelis returning from China, Thailand, Singapore, Hong Kong and Macau. The move came as Israel's Health ministry said nine South Korean nationals who visited Israel and the West Bank in February have tested positive for the virus. The Palestinian Interior Ministry issued a similar instruction on Saturday. All the nine tourists returned to South Korea and it is currently unknown whether they were infected with the virus before or after arriving in Israel. More and more countries are reporting cases of the new coronavirus, with WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warning that the window of opportunity for containment is narrowing. The UN health agency has been criticised for a slow response to the epidemic as well as previous health emergencies. Al Jazeera's Inside Story programme discusses whether a change in approach is needed. Read more here and watch the full video below.
Bats In China Carry 400+ Coronaviruses With The Potential To Spill Over Into Humans - Three years ago, NPR accompanied disease ecologist Kevin Olival on a field trip to Malaysian Borneo. Olival, who is with the nonprofit research group EcoHealth Alliance, was there to trap bats and collect samples of their body fluids. He and his collaborators would then test the samples for viruses. Bats are known for carrying some dangerous ones, particularly viruses that have the potential to kick off global outbreaks through what's called "spillovers" — instances of an animal virus jumping into a human. So the researchers were on a hunt for the next big threat. The results of their work put the current coronavirus outbreak in China in a wholly new light. Scientists say it was caused by a spillover event. And the findings from the sample collection project suggest these kinds of spillovers have actually been quietly taking place in China for years. Olival says what they found is alarming: "We found evidence for, in total, from all the sampling we did in China, about 400 new strains of coronaviruses." That means 400 potential candidates to spark another outbreak. After all, a coronavirus caused a massive outbreak in China back in 2002 — severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS. And this current outbreak is from a SARS-related coronavirus.
5 Biggest Pesticide Companies Are Making Billions From 'Highly Hazardous' Chemicals, Investigation Finds -- Poor people in developing countries are far more likely to suffer from exposure to pesticides classified as having high hazard to human health or the environment, according to new data that Unearthed analyzed. The analysis shows that the world's top five pesticide makers are making billions, accounting for more than 36 percent of their income, from chemicals that are proven to hazards to humans and the environment and are contributing to the precipitous demise of bee populations, as Unearthed reported.The researchers found that the sale of these highly hazardous pesticides (HHPs), disproportionately occurred in poorer nations, which often have fewer regulations than industrialized nations, according to The Guardian. In India, for example, sales of HHPs were nearly 60 percent, while in the UK it was just 11 percent. The report from the investigative team at Unearthed focused on the practices of Bayer, BASF, Corteva (formerly Dow and DuPont), FMC and Syngenta, which are continuing to sell HHPs like neonicotinoids and glufosinate that have been banned in other parts of the world, according to the produce industry publicationFresh Produce Journal. Unearthed dove into data collected by Phillips McDougall, the leading agribusiness analysts, from buyer surveys that concentrated on the best sellers in the top 43 pesticide buying countries, as The Guardian reported.While regulations have stopped the sale of certain pesticides in Europe, the U.S. and Canada, it has hardly slowed down chemical companies, which sold $4.8 billion worth of products containing HHPs in 2018, as The Guardian reported. Bayer called the analysis "misleading" but did not offer proof of that assessment.Since the investigation focused on just 43 countries, it covered less than half of the companies' global sales. That suggests that the companies actually made billions more from pesticides that regulatory agencies have said pose hazards like acute poisoning or chronic illness in people, or high toxicity to bees and other wildlife,according to Unearthed. The investigation found that pesticide manufacturers sold the majority of its highly hazardous pesticide in low- and middle-income countries like Brazil and India, where experts say the risks posed by using these chemicals are greatest, according to Unearthed. The biggest market for HHPs were for corn and soya crops.
Bayer and BASF Ordered to Pay $265 Million to U.S. Peach Farmer in Weedkiller Suit - A jury in Missouri awarded a farmer $265 million in a lawsuit that claimed Bayer and BASF's weedkiller destroyed his peach orchard, as Reuters reported. The lawsuit is ominous for Bayer, which bought Monsanto in 2018 and now faces nearly 140 similar lawsuits in U.S. courts, plus thousands of other suits that claim health damage from Monsanto's glyphosate-based Roundup. The jury in U.S. District Court in Cape Girardeau, Missouri awarded peach farmer, Bill Bader, $15 million in actual damages and $250 million in punitive damages, after agreeing with his claim that a herbicide the two German companies produced drifted onto his orchard from nearby farms and irreparably damaged his 1,000 acre peach-tree orchard, according to Reuters. Bader Farms is one of the largest peach tree farms in Missouri. As the AP reported, Bader's attorneys argued that dicamba, which is present in herbicides made by Bayer and BASF, is so potent that there was no way for Bader's trees to recover from the exposure. The generous award paves the way for a large spate of lawsuits from farmers who have seen their crops destroyed by inadvertent exposure to dicamba-based products. Like Roundup, dicamba was developed and distributed by Monsanto. Farmers across the country have claimed that dicamba turns into vapor and drifts for miles when used in certain weather conditions, as Reuters reported. They have alleged that it has destroyed millions of acres of U.S. cropland, according to The Associated Press. Attorneys for Bayer said they plan to appeal the decision. "We want our customers to know that, as this legal matter continues, we remain steadfast in our commitment to delivering them the effective and sustainable tools they need in the field," Bayer said in a statement, as The Associated Press reported. In court, they argued that Bader Farms trees were damaged by root fungus and bad weather.
Minnesota Will Pay Homeowners to Replace Lawns with Bee-Friendly Wildflowers, Clover and Native Grasses - Minnesota just allocated nearly a million dollars in incentives for people to transform their lawns into bee-friendly wildflowers, clover and native grasses.The state is asking citizens to stop spraying herbicide, stop mowing so often, and let their lawns re-wild into a more natural state.The goal is to provide “food sources for pollinators of all kinds, but will specifically aim at saving the rusty patched bumblebee, a fat and fuzzy species on the brink of extinction that seems to be making its final stand in the cities of the Upper Midwest,” the Star Tribune reports.Research has shown bumblebees are particularly important to the region, as they vibrate at frequency that unlocks pollen other insects can’t reach.The loss of native prairies and forests across the country has made pollinators more dependent on urban and suburban lawn flowers, says James Wolfin, a bee habitat researcher at University of Minnesota.His research has focused on “bee lawns” – grassy yards interspersed with small flowers such as Dutch white clover, creeping thyme, self heal, ground plum and dandelions.The flowers make excellent food source for bees, while being cheap to plant and easy maintain.“A pound of Dutch white clover is about $7 and it grows low enough that people wouldn’t even have to change the way they mow their lawn,” Wolfin told the Star Tribune.Around 55 of Minnesota’s 350 bee species depend on white clover alone, he notes.“So just by not treating white clover like a weed and letting it grow in a yard provides a really powerful resource for nearly 20% of the bee species in the state,” Wolfin said.
Hive heists: why the next threat to bees is organized crime - Mike Potts was aware he was at risk of being a victim of crime, he just didn’t think it would happen to him. But Potts is an owner of an increasingly valuable commodity that thieves are targeting with growing sophistication in the US: bees. A booming demand for honeybees for pollination drew Potts, owner of Pottsy’s Pollination in Oregon, to load 400 hives of his bees on trucks and drive them down to California’s agricultural heartland last month. He unloaded them to a holding area just outside Yuba City and returned just a few days later to find 92 hives had been whisked away by thieves. “I pulled in the yard and noticed that there was some stuff missing,” said Potts, who estimated the theft cost him $44,000. Police subsequently pulled over three suspicious beekeepers traveling late at night, to no avail. “I’ve heard that there had been some stealing but didn’t think it would happen to me. It’s frustrating because it’s getting harder and harder to keep bees alive. And then you transport them down and they just get taken.” The theft is the latest in a string of beehive heists, often undertaken at the dead of night using forklifts and trucks. Hives are regularly split open or dismantled, interventions that can kill tens of thousands of the kidnapped bees. The problem has become severe enough in California that certain police officers now specialize in hive crime. “Hive theft has always been an issue but it has definitely increased over the last eight years,” said Rowdy Freeman, a Butte county police officer who is commonly referred to as “bee theft detective”. Freeman has compiled figures showing there was an explosion in California hive thefts in 2016, with 1,695 being taken, compared with 101 in 2015. In 2017, the figure was 1,048 hives.
Europe's Anti-Science Plague Descends On Africa - European activists are putting lives at risk in East Africa, turning a plague of insects into a real prospect of widespread famine. The fast-breeding desert locust has invaded Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia, creating a state of emergency. The pests recently landed in Djibouti, Eritrea, Oman and Yemen. Swarms have also struck Tanzania and Uganda. They won’t stop on their own. According to the Food Agriculture Organization (FAO), “this is the worst situation in 25 years." These beasts consume every plant in their path, leaving behind devastated croplands and pastures, and can migrate up to 150km in a day. They’ve already covered a million hectares in Kenya, with no signs of slowing down. The human toll is staggering. Twenty-five million people have been left hungry, by Oxfam’s estimate.Yet, instead of rallying around African nations in this time of great peril, more EU-funded NGOs have descended on the Kenyan parliament to demand that the government disarm itself in the battle against locusts. They want the Kenyan government to outlaw the pesticides used to fight locusts, the only effective tool that can stop these insects, and prevent the crisis from spiraling out of control.According to experts, a pesticide like fenitrothion will play a key role in eliminating locusts in Kenya and other African countries. Properly applied, it can thwart the desert locust swarms. But Kenya lacks the supplies it desperately needs. “The pesticide fenitrothion is very effective. It kills locusts within forty minutes to six hours of spraying,” says Salad Tutana, the Chair of Northern Kenya Locust Control Coordination team. Mr. Salad says they are experiencing a shortage of fenitrothion, but that fresh supplies of the pesticide have recently arrived from Japan.More planes are needed for spraying. Currently, there are only five planes being used to spray the available insecticides.Kenya has already set aside $2.5 million to combat locusts through spraying, but this is hardly enough as the situation continues to worsen. The U.N. FAO agreed to contribute $70 million to the spraying effort, but thus far only $15 million has made its way to the region.
Bald Eagles Are Still Dying From Lead Poisoning - America's national bird is threatened by hunters. Not that hunters are taking aim at the iconic bald eagle, but bald eagles are dying after eating lead bullets, as CNN reported. The Cape Fear Raptor Center, North Carolina's largest eagle rehab facility, has recently treated seven eagles for lead poisoning, executive director Dr. Joni Shimp told CNN. The center also said that 80 percent of the eagles it has had to euthanize since November were because of lead poisoning. Similarly, officials from the Hatteras Island Wildlife Rehabilitation in North Carolina said that 70 to 80 percent of the eagles they treat have high levels of lead in their system, and the effects are devastating,according to WTKR in North Carolina and coastal Virginia. "The bird is lethargic, it's limp, it may have vision problems, staggering, legs not working correctly," explained Lou Browning of Hatteras Island Wildlife Rehabilitation to WTKR. As CNN explained, hunters use lead bullets to kill deer and other animals. When the eagles feast upon the dead animals, they are indirectly exposed to toxic levels of lead. "Hunters in no way, shape or form intentionally try to kill an eagle, vulture or any other species," Shimp said to CNN. "If the deer isn't killed immediately and runs and the hunter can't find the deer, the eagles and vultures find it and ingest the lead." Shimp also explained some of the neurological problems that result from lead exposure to eagles. She told CNN that the eagles will show a "lack of judgment when flying across roadways, the inability to take flight quickly resulting in being hit by cars, seizures and death." "It's often said a piece of lead the size of a grain of rice is enough to take down an eagle," Doug Hitchcox, a naturalist from Maine Audubon, said. Maine had five cases of eagles dying from lead poisoning in January alone, according to NECN in New England.
Plastic Watch: Congress Considers Bill to Impose Extended Producer Responsibility, AKA ‘You Break It, You Buy It’ -Jerri-Lynn Scofield -Senator Tom Udall and Representative Alan Lowenthal introduced on 11 February the Break Free from Plastic Pollution Act, legislation that imposes responsibility for disposing of plastic waste onto producers, and which encouragingly, has attracted strong opposition from the plastic industry.First up, I want to flag a recent grist article, which highlights the looming threat: Big Oil’s plan to ramp up American plastic production, Big Oil’s Plan B is already in the pipeline: More plastic. We’re engaged in a giant game of whack-a-mole, where the industry has huge incentives to find new uses for plastic, to replace any types that get banned or curtailed. Under the current system, the producer players book the profit for plastic products and the government – and society more generally – either pays to clean up, or drowns under, the increased waste.The US plastic recycling system is notoriously inefficient, more a massive exercise in virtue signalling than an effective waste management system. Only 8% of plastic waste is currently recycled, with the rest incinerated landfilled or shipped overseas to places even less able to process it, according to EcoWatch, Groundbreaking Legislation Would Help U.S. ‘Break Free From Plastic’. The world recycling system has broken down, ever since China elected not to accept any more plastic imports beginning in 2018. Since then, the recycling systems of many developing countries have been overwhelmed by plastic waste imports, and others have followed China’s lead, including recently, Malaysia. In January, China banned many types of single use plastic, to be implemented over five years (see Plastics Watch: China to Ban Single-Use Plastics, Malaysia Rejects Waste Shipments). Now, even if recycling rates were a perfect 100%, we should not use that fact as carte blanche for producing plastic. First, most plastic is currently made from fossil fuels. We simply cannot continue to use fossil fuels in this way. A 2019 report from the Center for International Environmental Law found the emissions in 2019 from the production and incineration of plastic to be more than 850 million metric tons of greenhouse gases – equal to the emissions from 189 five-hundred- megawatt coal power plants. By 2050, this figure is expected to more than triple, to the equivalent of 615 such plants. Second, any system that deals with plastic by recycling, especially if shipments to other countries are involved, also unnecessarily consumes fossil fuels.
More Plastic Is On the Way: What It Means for Climate Change -- With the recent fracking boom causing low gas prices, fossil fuel companies are seeking other ways to bolster their profits — by making more plastic. Just as the world is starting to address its enormous plastic pollution problem, these companies are doubling down on plastic, with huge potential consequences for climate and the environment. The over-abundance of natural gas has resulted in the lowest gas prices since 2016. Consequently, some fossil fuel companies are being forced to shut down drilling rigs and file for bankruptcy protection. Big companies like Exxon Mobil, Shell and Saudi Aramco, which see signs of a coming decline in fossil fuel use, are compensating for the low prices by investing in plastic production, since plastics are made from oil, gas and their byproducts. As a result, the World Economic Forum expects plastic production to double by 2040. Natural gas contains ethane, which is a building block of plastic. Because the U.S. has extracted so much ethane with its natural gas, over $200 billion have been invested into 333 new chemical and plastics projects, as of the end of 2019. Judith Enck, former regional EPA director and a founder of Beyond Plastics, has said that 2020 is a critical year because many of the new plastic production facilities in the U.S. are in the permitting process; “If even a quarter of these ethane cracking facilities are built,” she said, “it’s locking us into a plastic future that is going to be hard to recover from.” One analyst from the data and analytics firm IHS Markit said that unless plastic production is slowed down, “they’ll just find something else to wrap in plastic.” To make plastic, companies separate ethane from the natural gas mixture and convey it in liquid form via pipeline to an “ethane cracker,” a large industrial plant that uses intense heat to crack or break apart ethane molecules. These molecules then reform into ethylene, a basic building block of the petrochemical industry that is used to make resins, adhesives, chemicals, and plastics. In the process, ethane crackers can emit pollutants such as nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide and particulate matter, as well as benzene, which is carcinogenic, and volatile organic compounds that can react with sunlight to form ground-level ozone. The United States already produces around 40 percent of the world’s ethane-based petrochemicals and is the largest exporter of ethane, selling to Norway, the U.K., and Scotland, and to China and India, where plastic demand is rising. The Department of Energy (DOE) expects that by 2025, the eastern U.S., including Appalachia, will be producing 20 times more ethane than it did in 2013. In 2018, DOE published a report about the potential for Appalachia to become a new “ethane hub” because of its Marcellus and Utica shale resources, and the Trump administration is touting the plastics and petrochemical industry as the next big thing for the region.
U.S. Products Labeled Recyclable Really Aren’t, Greenpeace Report Says -- Just because that plastic item you rinsed out and placed in your blue bin says it is recyclable doesn't mean it actually is.A new Greenpeace report released Tuesday found many examples of companies putting misleading labels on products that could not actually be processed by most U.S. material recovery facilities (MRFs)."Retailers and consumer goods companies across the country are frequently putting labels on their products that mislead the public and harm America's recycling systems," Greenpeace USA Oceans Campaign Director John Hocevar said in a press release. "Instead of getting serious about moving away from single-use plastic, corporations are hiding behind the pretense that their throwaway packaging is recyclable. We know now that this is untrue. The jig is up." Greenpeace surveyed the U.S.'s 367 MRFs and found that they can only really process two types of plastic:
- PET #1
- HDPE #2 bottles and jugs
These two plastic types are reliably recyclable because there is high demand for them and because U.S. facilities have the capacity to process them. But plastics labeled #3 to #7 cannot reliably be called recyclable, the report found. Only 14 percent of the facilities surveyed accepted plastic clamshells, only 11 percent accepted plastic cups, only four percent accepted plastic bags and only one percent accepted straws, cutlery and stirrers, The Hill reported. In addition, plastic shrink wrap added to #1 and #2 plastics can render them unrecyclable, Greenpeace said. "[O]ur findings show that many items commonly found in beach cleanups – cups, bags, trays, plates and cutlery – are not recyclable. In America's municipal recycling system, they are contaminants," Jan Dell, the founder of the Last Beach Cleanup and the leader of Greenpeace's survey team, told The Guardian. Yet despite this, Greenpeace found that several popular brands including Target, Nestlé, Danone, Walmart, Procter & Gamble, Clorox, Aldi, SC Johnson and Unilever had sold products with misleading labels. Greenpeace has asked the companies to correct their labelling. If they do not, the organization will file a complaint with the Federal Trade Commission (FTC).
Washington State to Ban Bottled Water Operations - Bottled water manufacturers looking to capture cool, mountain water from Washington's Cascade Mountains may have to look elsewhere after the state senate passed a bill banning new water permits, as The Guardianreported.The state, with its glacier-fed springs and rainforests, will become the first state in the country to put a total ban on new bottling operations looking to plunder the state's natural resources. The proposal is one of several in the works in Washington to protect local groundwater and to fend off the growing bottled-water industry, as the Tribune News Service reported.The bill, once signed into law, will go into effect retroactively and apply to all new permits filed after Jan. 1, 2019, according to The Guardian. "Washington State is carving the path towards a groundbreaking solution," said Mary Grant, the director of Food & Water Action's public water for all campaign, in a statement, as The Guardian reported. "This legislation … would ban one of the worst corporate water abuses – the extraction of local water supplies in plastic bottles shipped out of watersheds and around the country." Across the country, local activists have warned that bottling companies are taking their water almost for free and then shipping it elsewhere, leaving local aquifers depleted. "I was jolted to the core to realize the depth and breadth and magnitude of how they have lawyered up in these small towns to take advantage of water rights," said Washington state Sen. Reuven Carlyle, who sponsored the bill to ban bottling companies from extracting groundwater, as the Tribune News Service reported. "The fact that we have incredibly loose, if virtually nonexistent, policy guidelines around this is shocking and a categorical failure."
Trump signs order diverting water to California farmers against state wishes -- President Trump on Wednesday signed an order in California to re-engineer the state’s water plans, completing a campaign promise to funnel water from the north to a thirsty agriculture industry and growing population further south. The ceremonial order comes after the Department of the Interior late last year reversed its opinion on scientific findings that for a decade extended endangered species protections to various types of fish — a review that had been spurred by the order from Trump. Trump said the changes to the “outdated scientific research and biological opinions” would now help direct “as much water as possible, which will be a magnificent amount, a massive amount of water for the use of California farmers and ranchers.” “A major obstacle to providing water for the region's farmers has now been totally eliminated by the federal government,” Trump said Wednesday in Bakersfield, Calif., flanked by House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Calif.), as well as Interior Secretary David Bernhardt, who helped shepherd the changes to the state’s water policy. Trump's order comes as the state has taken several steps to deal with the water scarcity that has lasted for decades. "It would be different if you had a drought," Trump claimed, despite concerns the state may be headed into another drought. "You don't have a drought. You have tremendous amounts of water." The state is expected to fight the order. “California won’t allow the Trump Administration to destroy and deplete our natural resources,” California Attorney General Xavier Becerra (D) said in a statement after the speech. “We’re prepared to challenge the Trump Administration’s harmful attack on our state’s critical ecosystems and environment.” Critics fear the new plan, which would allow large quantities of water to be diverted from the San Francisco Bay Delta to the Central Valley in order to irrigate farmland, would ultimately harm chinook salmon and the delta smelt, a finger-sized fish that for three decades has stood in the way of the diversion.
Dry February sends California back to drought: 'This hasn't happened in 150 years' - San Francisco and Sacramento have not seen a drop of rain this February, and climate scientists are expecting that disturbing dry trend to hold, in what is typically one of the wettest months of the year for California. “This hasn’t happened in 150 years or more,” said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA’s Institute of the Environment and Sustainability. “There have even been a couple wildfires – which is definitely not something you typically hear about in the middle of winter.” Combined with warmer than average temperatures, the state is parched, and there is no moisture in the forecasts. “The dryness has picked up as the season has gone on,” said Swain. The year began with snowpack at 90% of its historical average. But less than two dry, warm months later, it’s hanging in at just 52% of average. “Those numbers are going to continue to go down,” said Swain. “I would guess that the 1 March number is going to be less than 50%.” That snow isn’t just the basis for the mountain tourism industry in the winter – it serves as a significant source of water for California cities and agriculture come spring melt. Last year’s snowpack at this time was more than 125% of average, an indicator of what Swain calls “precipitation whiplash”. California has long weathered these wet and dry cycles. The state’s future in the climate crisis looks warmer and drier not because of a lack of rain, but because of the extra heat drawing moisture out of the ecosystem. That heat is a major contributor to reduced snowpack, both as less snow falls, and as more of it melts more quickly. Climate science points to a California bound for a future that looks less like endless extreme drought alone. “We aren’t going to necessarily see less rain, it’s just that that rain goes less far. That’s a future where the flood risk extends, with bigger wetter storms in a warming world,” said Swain.
Fort Lauderdale is facing a $1.8 million fine after 206 million gallons of sewage was discharged into the city's waterways - Over the last two and a half months, more than 206 million gallons of toxic sewage has spilled into Fort Lauderdale waterways. That's the equivalent of 312 Olympic-sized swimming pools. And now, the state of Florida is saying enough is enough. It has slapped Fort Lauderdale with a $1.8 million fine that the city is expected to pay by March 31, according to a letter sent to the city and obtained by CNN. The issue first began in December 2019. Since then, the city's aging sewer pipes broke and discharged raw sewage seven times into multiple neighborhoods and tourist destinations. The most recent spill was on January 30 when millions of gallons of sewage began spouting out of the pipes buried under Fort Lauderdale's George English Park, home to the city's famed George English Lake. "All the fish are dead there," Fort Lauderdale fisherman Jeff Maggio told the South Florida Sun-Sentinel. "Everything's just gone. Crabs, oysters, barnacles and plankton. Crews have been out there picking up hundreds of fish out of the water so it doesn't look like holy hell. Manatees are swimming in that poison." Fort Lauderdale's sewer main system is 50 years old.
'Historic, unprecedented' flooding swamps southern USA; Mississippi and Tennessee hardest hit – Weeks of heavy rain have inundated a large portion of the southern U.S., bringing near-record flooding to portions of Mississippi and Tennessee. In Jackson, Mississippi, hundreds of residents either watched their homes flood over the weekend or worried their residence would soon be drenched as the Pearl River crested Monday at 36.8 feet, its third-highest level ever recorded – behind only 1979 and 1983. Calling the Jackson floods "historic" and "unprecedented," Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves said in a Sunday press conference that "we do not anticipate this situation to end anytime soon. It will be days before we are out of the woods and the waters recede." Reeves said at a news conference Monday that there were no reports of flood-related injuries and thanked the people of Mississippi for heeding evacuation orders. Only 16 search and rescue missions were necessary, he said, even though as many as 1,000 homes were flooded. The governor also warned the hundreds of evacuees in the Jackson area not to rush back home until they got the all clear. The flooding is the result of a stubbornly damp weather pattern: February has seen "a constant stream of wet storms rolling across the Deep South," said AccuWeather meteorologist Paul Walker, who called it a "crazy month" for the amount of rain that's fallen across the region. More wet weather is on the way: Rain showers were forecast to develop Monday night over the Mississippi River Valley, further saturating an already soggy South, the Weather Channel said.The National Weather Service said that this entire area is quite soaked and any additional rainfall may lead to more runoff issues and additional flooding.
"This Thing Isn't Over Yet": Officials Warn Flooding in Mississippi and Tennessee to Continue - As rainfall burst the banks of rivers across the two states, officials in Mississippi and Tennessee warned residents they are still in the path of more flooding as rain continues to hammer the soaked American South. "We have rain coming in between Sunday and Wednesday," said Rankin County, Mississippi emergency management director Mike Word. "The water is coming. It’s just slower than they said. We don't want the general public to lower their concern because this thing isn't over yet." Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves declared a state of emergency due to the flooding on Saturday. Jackson, just to the west of Rankin County, has been hit hard by flooding from the Pearl River, which reached its third-highest mark in recorded history Sunday morning. Further north, in Tennessee's Hardin County, floodwaters spilled over roadways and houses were swept away by swollen rivers. "Spring flooding is already underway in the South," said climate journalist Eric Holthaus. "It's February." "We are in a climate emergency," he added. There are 10 million people in the South under flood warnings, according to NBC News. Though the flood waters are expected to recede quickly after the current storm system clears out, those waters will present their own dangers. The damage from the flooding could be catastrophic, Jackson resident Nate Greentold MSN. "One of the reasons people come and live down here is because they want to be close to the woods, close to the river, so they can ride four wheelers, hike, do that kind of stuff and this is part of what you pay," said Green. "It's going to be financially crushing to a lot of people."
US Operational Weather Prediction Is Crippled By Inadequate Computer Resources - U.S. global numerical weather prediction has now fallen into fourth place, with national and regional prediction capabilities a shadow of what they could be.There are several reasons for these lagging numerical weather prediction capabilities, including lack of strategic planning, inadequate cooperation between the research and operational communities, and too many sub-optimal prediction efforts. But there is another reason of equal importance: a profound lack of computer resources dedicated to numerical weather prediction, both for operations and research. The bottom line: U.S. operational numerical weather prediction resources used by the National Weather Service must be increased 10 times to catch up with leading efforts around the world and 100 times to reach state of the science. Why does the National Weather Service require very large computer resources to provide the nation with world-leading weather prediction? Immense computer resources are required for modern numerical weather prediction. For example, NOAA/NWS TODAY is responsible for running:
- A global atmospheric model (the GFS/FV-3) running at 13-km resolution out to 384 hours.
- Global ensembles (GEFS) of many (21 forecasts) forecasts at 35 km resolution
- The high-resolution Rapid Refresh and RAP models out 36 h.
- The atmosphere/ocean Climate Forecast System model out 9 month.s
- The National Water Model (combined WRF and hydrological modeling)
- Hurricane models during the season
- Reanalysis runs (rerunning past decades to provide calibration information)
- Running the North American mesoscale model (NAM)
- Running the Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System (SREF)
This is not a comprehensive list. And then there is the need for research runs to support development of the next generation systems. As suggested by the world-leading European Center for Medium Range Weather Prediction, research computer resources should be at least five times greater than the operational requirements to be effective.
Here We Go Again - The Waterways Journal - Long-range flood outlooks issued by the NWS’s North Central and Missouri Basin River Forecast Centers said there is an above-average chance of widespread flooding this spring along stretches of the Mississippi River, Missouri River, Red River [of the north] and other tributaries in the northern and central U.S. The flood potential for this spring is “well above normal” for the Upper Mississippi River drainage area. There is a persistent 50 percent or greater chance of major flooding along the Mississippi River down to Lock and Dam 19, and the same chance of moderate flooding from Lock and Dam 19 to St. Louis. An extremely wet autumn—300 percent above normal precipitation in some areas—and super-saturated soils from the upper Midwest to the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee River valleys means there’s no absorption left. 2019 was the wettest year on record in five Midwestern states: Michigan, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wisconsin. 2019 was among the 10 wettest years in almost every state in the Mississippi, Missouri and Ohio valleys. From Montana to the Southeast, soil moisture measurements are currently among the highest on record for mid-February. Rivers are still running high and above flood stage in some areas. Reservoirs are full, and some are still releasing 2019’s captured floodwaters. Unlike last year, the Ohio River basin also has a higher risk of flooding, along with the Tennessee River valley. In the upper Midwest, parts of the wet soil froze during a dry and cold November, and a later covering of snow insulated them from thawing. All this means any increase in rainfall will trigger immediate flooding. A brief warm spell in January and February has already produced ice jams and localized flooding along some tributaries of the Upper Mississippi. Along the Upper Mississippi, 49 gauges show a greater than 50 percent long-range risk of major flooding, and another 56 gauges show a greater than 50 percent of moderate flooding.
Racial Inequalities in Housing Extend to Flood Buyout Programs - Government buyouts of flood-damaged homes disproportionately benefit whiter, wealthier communities, even as low-income and minority homeowners are more likely to participate in such programs, according to new research from Rice University.In a nationwide analysis of the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s Hazard Mitigation Grant Program, researchers found that buyout programs both create and reflect historical discriminatory practices, even if the implementing agencies comply with anti-discrimination laws.The phenomenon is especially prevalent in urban areas and is an unintended outcome of other discriminatory housing practices like mortgage redlining and renter refusal based on race or other factors, the researchers found.“Basically, our analysis tries to follow the demographic trail,” said Jim Elliott, professor and chair of sociology at Rice and a fellow at the university’s Kinder Institute for Urban Research. “What we found is [buyouts are] not randomly distributed among neighborhoods and racial groups. Buyouts are about housing, and housing is a socialized asset” affected by race and other socioeconomic factors.“Cities have neighborhoods forged through long histories of racial segregation that live on to create unequal access to opportunities in good times and bad, as well as in ways that can accumulate across multiple of steps of housing transactions, even when the buyer is a government agency,” according to the study published in the sociology journal Socius. “Although sometimes blurry in practice and opaque in process, these steps matter because they allow racial inequities to enter at multiple points that can accumulate in unintended ways.”
Storm Dennis: Second massive storm in two weeks hits North Atlantic and Western Europe - One of the strongest storms in modern history is pummeling the North Atlantic and western Europe with massive waves and hurricane force winds. The system's name is Dennis and it comes less than a week after storm Ciara helped power a British Airways flight to a new trans-Atlantic speed record over 800 mph. Dennis is massive, spanning more than 3,000 miles in width from eastern Canada to Scandinavia. The behemoth's pressure dropped to 920 millibars near Iceland this weekend, on par with the most intense hurricanes including Hurricane Maria in 2017 and Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The lower the millibars – a measure of atmospheric pressure – the stronger the storm, and Dennis' barometric pressure is just 7 millibars short of the record-strongest North Atlantic non-tropical storm from 1993. Storm Dennis will create another quick-moving jet stream one week after several flights broke transatlantic flight time records thanks to a boost from a storm-enhanced jet stream. On Friday and Saturday, wind gusts in Iceland reached well over hurricane force, clocking in at an astounding 256 km/hr, or 159 mph. The storm has since weakened, but is still raking Scotland and Ireland with gusts up to 75 mph along with torrential rains and intense street flooding. All weekend, average wave heights in the North Atlantic ranged from 40 to 60 feet, with rogue waves easily topping 100 feet.
As Extreme Weather Turns Deadly in UK, Climate Activists Are Forced to Cancel Meeting - Britain has been battered by back-to-back major storms in consecutive weekends, which flooded streets, submerged rail lines, and canceled flights. The most recent storm, Dennis, forced a group of young climate activists to cancel their first ever national conference, as CBS News reported. "There's a bleak irony in our being beaten back by climate change," 15-year-old Sophia Coningham from London said in a statement released by the UK Student Climate Network via Greenpeace UK, as CBS Newsreported. "We are now living in an age of climate storms - where the most extreme weather of the last century is becoming the norm in this one." On Tuesday, CBS News reported that storm Dennis had turned deadly: One woman is believed to have died in the flooding caused by Dennis, the second major storm to hit the United Kingdom in two weeks. Two men reportedly drowned in the ocean as high winds churned up huge waves over the weekend, and another man was killed after falling into a river in Wales, Britain's LBC radio news reported. The UK Student Climate Network had scheduled Sunday's event to take place in Strattfordshire in the middle of England. However, police advised the group to cancel the event since travel to and from the event was unsafe, according to the Independent. The group said that heavy rain made the roads impassable. "This kind of last-minute cancellation is particularly difficult for young people without the financial resources to travel across the country whenever we choose," Conningham said, as the Independent reported. "We are now living in an age of climate storms - where the most extreme weather of the last century is becoming the norm in this one." "This is an emergency that's now being felt across the world - from Staffordshire to Sri Lanka," she added. CBS News reported that the UK government's Environment Agency had issued a record 634 flood warnings on Sunday alone. More than 200 flood warnings remain in place across the UK, including nine severe - or "danger to life" – warnings, as the BBC reported.
Storm Dennis washes abandoned ghost ship onto rocks off Co Cork - A pollution control team has been deployed to east Cork after a ghost ship washed up onto rocks after drifting across the Atlantic over the last year.Locals in Ballycotton alerted the Irish Coast Guard Marine Rescue Co-ordination Centre at Valentia at about 1.15pm when they spotted the freighter driven high on to rocks at Ballyandreane during Storm Dennis.According to the Coast Guard, the vessel is the MV Alta, a 77-metre freighter that has been derelict since the US coast guard rescued the 10-man crew from the vessel in October 2018.The ship had been en route from Greece to Haiti but became disabled and had been drifting for almost 20 days when the crew radioed for help after their food and water supplies began to run low. The crew was taken off the vessel about 2,220km southeast of Bermuda in October 2018 but since then the ship has continued to drift being driven eastwards by the prevailing winds.The Royal Navy ice patrol ship, HMS Protector came across the abandoned vessel off Africa on August 30th 2019 as it sailed towards the Bahamas to assist with hurricane relief efforts. The Royal Navy attempted to make contact with the ship but received no response and it now appears it continued to drift before coming to lodge on the rocks at Ballycotton. According to the Coast Guard, it is continuing to monitor the vessel amid fears it may pose a pollution risk from its fuel tanks if it breaks up on the rocks due to stormy seas.
Dan Loeb's Luxury Yacht Slams Into The Most Remarkable Reef In The West Indies Near Belize - Loeb's yacht damaged what is being called a "pristine reef" near the famous Great Blue Hole outside of Belize, according to Bloomberg. Loeb's 200 foot yacht was filmed last Sunday anchored at Belize's Lighthouse Reef Atoll. Spokespeople say Loeb was not on the yacht at the time and the Financial Times has reported there will be an official investigation. A spokesperson for Belize's department of the environment said Loeb's yacht caused the damage: “Samadhi on Sunday lowered the anchor in a very sensitive area of Belize. Officers are doing an investigation. We know that damage was done,” the spokesperson to FT. Loeb responded:“As a life-long surfer and someone who loves the ocean, I was horrified to hear about this incident in Belize. We promptly contacted the Belize Audubon Society (a conservation group) and are committed to working together to restore the reef.” Loeb acquired his super-yacht back in 2013 from former Citigroup CEO Sandy Weill. It's offered as for charter on several websites for about $360,000 per week.The yacht was on a charter trip at the time when its anchor was dragged through the coral. According to Bloomberg, the barrier reef outside of Belize "is a Unesco World Heritage site and the largest of its kind in the northern hemisphere." It was once called “the most remarkable reef in the West Indies” by Charles Darwin.
'The Great Barrier Reef is on a Knife Edge': Reef Faces Third Major Bleaching Event in Five Years -- Rains have only recently started dousing the historic wildfires that killed more than one billion animals on land. Now, scientists and environmentalists are warning that the Great Barrier Reef could see its third major coral bleaching event in five years if ocean temperatures remain high for the next two weeks, The Guardian reported Thursday. "The Great Barrier Reef is on a knife edge," head of oceans at WWF-Australia Richard Leck told The Guardian. 'We will know in the next couple of weeks whether we now have a mass coral bleaching event for the third time in only five years." Scientists with the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority have already found "significant bleaching" at three reefs in the far north, the authority's chief scientist David Wachenfeld told The Sydney Morning Herald. Wachenfeld said the reefs in the north were relatively protected from most human activity, but not from the rising of ocean temperatures caused by the climate crisis. Coral bleaching occurs when corals expel the algae that give them their color and nutrients in response to heat stress. Back-to-back bleaching events in 2016 and 2017 killed as many as half of the corals in the reef. Currently, temperatures across the reef are around two to three degrees Celsius above normal, and summer temperatures do not usually peak until mid March, professor Terry Hughes, director of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies at James Cook University, told The Guardian. What happens will ultimately depend on the "vagaries of the weather," he said. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has placed the reef on Alert Level 1 for the next seven days, which means a significant bleaching event is likely, ABC News reported. However, the agency's Coral Reef Watch also forecast that the bleaching would not be as intense as the bleaching in 2016 and 2017.
Coral Reefs Could Be Completely Lost to the Climate Crisis by 2100, New Study Finds - Researchers released a sobering study this week showing that all of the world's coral reefs may be lost to theclimate crisis by 2100.The bleak outlook means that restoration efforts will face Herculean challenges, according to the research presented by researchers at this week's Ocean Sciences Meeting 2020 in San Diego, California.Rising sea temperatures, acidic water and pollution are proving too much for the reefs to handle. About 70 to 90 percent of the world's existing coral reefs are predicted to disappear in the next two decades, according to scientists from the University of Hawaii Manoa, as CNN reported."By 2100, it's looking quite grim," said Renee Setter, a biogeographer at the University of Hawaii Manoa in astatement.While pollution poses a large threat to many ocean creatures, corals seem most at risk from emissions, according to the researchers."Trying to clean up the beaches is great and trying to combat pollution is fantastic. We need to continue those efforts," Setter said in a statement. "But at the end of the day, fighting climate change is really what we need to be advocating for in order to protect corals and avoid compounded stressors."To make their predictions, the scientists mimicked future ocean conditions like sea surface temperature, wave energy, acidity, pollution and overfishing in areas where corals are today. Looking at those models, the scientists found that most parts of the ocean will not sustain habitats for corals by 2045, and almost no suitable habitats will exist by 2100, according to CBS News."Honestly, most sites are out," said Setter in the statement. Coral reefs nurture about 25 percent of marine life and support local economies worldwide. As CBS Newsnoted, the new research is disheartening for efforts to restore corals by growing them in labs and then putting them back into the ocean. While those efforts have had a 60 percent success rate, the research suggests that lab-grown corals will not stand up to warming oceans and increased acidification.
Video: half a million mussels cooked to death at a New Zealand beach - Hundreds of thousands of mussels cooked to death in New Zealand due to rising temperatures in New Zealand's oceans. New Zealand resident Brandon Ferguson posted a video on Facebook from Maunganui Bluff Beach, located on the country's North Island, showing hundreds-of-thousands of dead mussels that had washed up on the shore. Ferguson told Business Insider that he happened upon the sight while out with friends and family last week. We waited for the tide to turn so we could gather mussels." But instead, Ferguson saw hundreds of thousands of green-lipped mussels that had turned up dead. "It smelled like dead rotting seafood," "There were well over 500,000 mussels and shells littering the coastline." Ferguson said that he had witnessed this type of event on the same beach in the past, with different types of shellfish washing up dead along the shores. He blamed rising temperatures and warming sea waters for the phenomena. A 2019 report from the New Zealand government supports Ferguson's theory — climate change has been warming sea temperatures, devastating the country's native marine plants, animals and habitats. According to the report, between 1981 and 2018, overall sea-surface temperatures across New Zealand's four oceanic regions, including Chatham Rise, the Tasman Sea, subtropical, and subantarctic increased between 0.1 and 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade. New Zealand's Secretary for the Environment Vicky Robertson explained that the warmer the water gets, the less able it is to absorb greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, which have been increasingly released into the atmosphere and have a strong impact on climate change.
Sea Ice Loss Is Making Polar Bears Thinner, and They're Having Fewer Cubs - The climate crisis wreaks havoc on animals and plants that have trouble adapting to global heating andextreme weather. Some of the most obvious examples are at the far reaches of the planet, as bees disappear from Canada, penguin populations plummet in the Antarctic, and now polar bears in the Arcticare struggling from sea ice loss, according to a new study, as CNN reported.In the study, published in Ecological Applications, researchers found that polar bears are losing weight and having fewer babies because their habitat is under threat. The scientists from the University of Washington found that polar bears are spending more time on land than in previous decades, as Oceanographic Magazine reported.Polar bears rely on sea ice for every aspect of their survival. They use sea ice to hunt seals, travel, build dens and mate. As ice begins to melt earlier in the year, the polar bears have less time for eating and having babies, as CNN reported. The intentional research team looked at satellite tracking and visual monitoring of polar bears in the 1990s and compared them with more recent years. The team focused on the area around Baffin Bay, a large expanse of water between northeastern Canada and Greenland.Laidre and her team tracked female polar bears and gauged their litter size and general health in two different periods — the 1990s and from 2009 to 2015, according to a press release from the University of Washington. The satellite tracking tags showed the researchers that the polar bears averaged 30 more days on land in the period from 2009 to 2015 than they did in the 1990s. In the 90s, the bears averaged 60 days on land. More recently, it has been 90 days, as Oceanographic Magazine reported.
French ski resort angers ecologists by using helicopters to transport snow - A French ski resort has angered ecologists by using helicopters to transfer snow to its lower slopes after a mild winter left them devoid of the white stuff. “Using helicopters to bring snow to ski resorts is not an option,” said the Minister of Ecological Transition Élisabeth Borne on Sunday. “It’s a question of putting a quick stop to it. It’s not possible to repeat such a highly polluting operation,” one of Borne’s advisers told AFP. Officials at the Luchon-Superbagnères ski resort in the Pyrenees made the decision on Friday to transport the snow from higher up the mountains to the lower slopes used by beginners and ski schools. It took two and a half hours to transport some 50 tonnes of snow at a cost of between €5,000 to €6,000, said Hervé Pouanu, the director of the local council in France's southwest. Pounau said the resort expected to recoup at least ten times the cost of the operation from the business that would have been lost from the lack of snow. Pounau acknowledged the operation was not “very eco-friendly” but explained that it was an “exceptional move”. “We have no intention of doing it again. We didn’t have a choice this time,” said Pounau, adding that the operation would enable between 50 and 80 people – resort and hotel staff – to work through the holidays.
Permafrost is thawing so fast it’s gouging holes in the Arctic - Residents of the small Alaskan town Kongiganak can no longer bury their dead. Their cemetery has become a marshy swamp, sucking graves into the once frozen ground.On the island of Sarichef near the Bering Strait, the village of Shishmaref is shrinking so fastlocals are considering relocating it entirely.Global warming has shown that permafrost is not so permanent after all. And as it begins to melt, it is reshaping the Arctic. The rapidly thawing ice layer is creating great sinkholes and hollows across the region as the ground begins to collapse in on itself. Erosion and landslides have become a problem without the ice that once held the soil together. Permafrost – any area of land that remains frozen for at least two years – can vary from less than a metre thick to more than 1,500 metres. Some of it is tens of thousands of years old.In some areas, it is simply frozen rock. But in other parts, soils and organic matter have acted like a sponge and taken in water which has subsequently frozen. As ice, water takes up a larger volume than its liquid form, but once melted, great pits are created in the land.But the problem extends beyond an increasingly pock-marked landscape.Scientists have known for years that melting permafrost will release greenhouse gases stored within and under it, creating a climate change feedback loop with the potential to warm our planet even faster. Rather than acting as a carbon sink, permafrost becomes a source of emissions. But the abrupt melting of the permafrost layer in some places, caused by warmer polar temperatures, could mean far more carbon is released than previously estimated, according to a new study in Nature Geoscience.Less than one-fifth of the permafrost zone is likely to see this abrupt thawing, but its impact on the surrounding landscape means up to half of permafrost carbon could be affected. Existing climate change models are based on gradual thawing of the permafrost layer caused by seasonal temperature fluctuations and fail to take into account the impact of more rapid thawing. This means we need to put in place measures to counteract human-induced emissions more quickly than we thought.
Antarctica Melts Under Its Hottest Days on Record - On February 6, 2020, weather stations recorded the hottest temperature on record for Antarctica. Thermometers at the Esperanza Base on the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula reached 18.3°C (64.9°F)—around the same temperature as Los Angeles that day. The warm spell caused widespread melting on nearby glaciers. The warm temperatures arrived on February 5 and continued until February 13, 2020. The images above show melting on the ice cap of Eagle Island and were acquired by theOperational Land Imager (OLI) on Landsat 8 on February 4 and February 13, 2020. The heat is apparent on the map below, which shows temperatures across the Antarctic Peninsula on February 9, 2020. The map was derived from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model, and represents air temperatures at 2 meters (about 6.5 feet) above the ground. The darkest red areas are where the model shows temperatures surpassing 10°C (50°F). Mauri Pelto, a glaciologist at Nichols College observed that during the warming event, around 1.5 square kilometers (0.9 square miles) of snowpack became saturated with meltwater (shown in blue above). According to climate models, Eagle Island experienced peak melt—30 millimeters (1 inch)—on February 6. In total, snowpack on Eagle Island melted 106 millimeters (4 inches) from February 6- February 11. About 20 percent of seasonal snow accumulation in the region melted in this one event on Eagle Island. He also used satellite images to detect widespread surface melting nearby on Boydell Glacier. The warm temperatures of February 2020 were caused by a combination of meteorological elements. A ridge of high pressure was centered over Cape Horn at the beginning of the month, and it allowed warm temperatures to build. Typically, the peninsula is shielded from warm air masses by the Southern Hemisphere westerlies, a band of strong winds that circle the continent. However, the westerlies were in a weakened state, which allowed the extra-tropical warm air to cross the Southern Ocean and reach the ice sheet. Sea surface temperatures in the area were also higher than average by about 2-3°C.
In Warren, planning for rising sea levels - - If the accelerating pace of sea-level rise requires a retreat from the Rhode Island coast sometime in the future, its beginnings will be found on a narrow residential street that ends at the Warren River.Here, at the terminus of Bridge Street within view of Narragansett Bay, the river’s brackish waters lap at the leading edge of asphalt, which is hidden by the dead plants and other wrack left behind by the last high tide.“The asphalt is eroding,” said Wenley Ferguson, director of habitat restoration for Save The Bay. “There are probably chunks of it in the intertidal zone.”Rhode Island has seen as much as 10 inches of sea level rise in less than a century and the rate is picking up. By some estimates from federal scientists, levels could rise another 10 feet or more by 2100 as polar ice melts, ocean currents slow, and waters continue to warm and expand.With more and more regularity, tides are pushing waters onto Bridge Street. During moon and other extreme high tides, the flooding can reach 10 feet or more up the gently-sloping street.And so the town sees no point in trying to maintain the section of roadway closest to the water that floods most often. Instead, it plans to dig out about 16 feet of asphalt and replace one side with a native garden and the other with water-permeable paving leading down to a new boat ramp. “We’re seeing more flooding,” said Bob Rulli, Warren’s director of planning and development. “Doing nothing is not an option.”
Gov. Edwards' plan to combat sea level rise in Louisiana? It starts with greenhouse gas emissions - Gov. John Bel Edwards announced Thursday that his administration plans to embark on an ambitious expansion of coastal restoration and flood protection efforts that for the first time will target greenhouse gas emissions by Louisiana industry as a way of reducing future sea level rise. “Louisiana will not just accept or adapt to climate change impacts,” said Edwards, flanked by top aides, during a news conference at the LSU Center for River Studies in Baton Rouge. “Louisiana will do its part to address climate change. “Science tells us that rising sea level will become the biggest challenge we face, threatening to overwhelm our best efforts to protect and restore our coast. Science also tells us that sea level rise is being driven by global greenhouse gas emissions.” While such statements might attract scant notice if they were uttered by a governor of another state, Edwards’ speech marked the first time a Louisiana governor had announced such intentions. In parts of Louisiana's 'Cancer Alley,' toxic emissions set to rise with a raft of new plants Special report: In parts of Louisiana's 'Cancer Alley,' toxic emissions set to rise with a raft of new plants The energy and petrochemical sectors have great sway over Louisiana’s economy – and over what happens in the halls of the state Capitol – so the new direction Edwards signaled comes with some political peril. On the other hand, Edwards was recently re-elected to a second term and he is barred from seeking a third, making the gesture less risky. Notably, too, Edwards offered few specifics about how aggressive a line he would take towards reducing emissions, and he praised Louisiana industry and stressed its centrality to the state and national economy. The governor said his effort will include a new Climate Initiatives Task Force that will come up with “next steps” for the state to take. “We are not announcing targets today, or metrics, and we are certainly not starting with a series of regulations,” he said.
Student climate change protests across the UK - On the first anniversary of climate change protests in the UK, young people again took to the streets in towns and cities across the country last Friday, joining similar protests around the globe. Thousands participated in over 100 UK demonstrations. Some 3,000 protests were held worldwide in 150 countries. A section of the protest in Mancheter’s St Peter’s Square In London’s Parliament Square, school and university students protested against the lack of government action to reverse the climate disaster. Some carried banners declaring: “Roses are red, violets are blue, our Earth is burning and soon we will too” and “Planet over Profits.” The protests stretched the length and breadth of the country, including Scotland’s largest city, Glasgow. In Aberdeen, students staged a “die-in” outside the university library. In the South-West, there were demonstrations in Plymouth and Bristol, as well as in smaller towns such as Bideford and Barnstaple. In Stroud, the protest led to delays on the busy A419 motorway. In Cambridge, those protesting wore red and orange to symbolise the Australian fires as they listened to music and speeches outside King’s College. Hundreds demonstrated in Oxford. In Yorkshire, the climate change protest in Leeds shut down several roads as over 300, including many school students, marched through the city centre. A similar number gathered in Sheffield. Environmental organisations such as Friends of the Earth, Greenpeace and Extinction Rebellion, as well as the Green party, were present at many of the demonstrations. A handful of trade union banners could be seen.
Floods Force U.K. Climate Strikers to Cancel First Gathering - Young climate protesters in the U.K. have been forced to cancel their first national conference following serious flooding and heavy rainstorms on two successive weekends. The conference was expected to take place from Sunday to Wednesday, but flooding in Staffordshire in England’s west midlands region made the venue unaccessible. Police advised against the meeting going ahead, according to a statement from the U.K. Student Climate Network. “The fingerprints of climate change are all over Storms Ciara and Dennis,” said Simon Lewis, professor of global change science at University College London. Winter storms aren’t new in the U.K., but climate models predict that, with rising average temperatures, the country will experience wetter winters. Storm Ciara hit the island nation last weekend, and Storm Dennis has battered its shores this weekend. On Sunday, the Met Office issued its first red alert linked to rainfall in almost two years. England had 480 flood warnings in place on Monday — a record. The youth activists, who have organized a series of strikes in the past, such as those organized by Greta Thunberg's global Fridays for Future movement, were meeting to exchange lessons and improve the effectiveness of future strikes.
'Done Playing by the Rules,' 20 Sunrise Activists Arrested at Capitol Protest Demanding Lawmakers Back Green New Deal -- Twenty teenagers were arrested Monday at the U.S. Capitol as they took part in a Sunrise Movement action demanding senators back the Green New Deal. Those arrested, which included one 13-year-old, according to Sunrise, were part of larger climate action by more than 150 middle- and high-schoolers calling for the lawmakers to "step up or step aside." "Instead of leaving our classrooms for our day off, we are bringing our classroom to the capitol because our government is failing to protect our generation, and we're terrified," said 17-year-old John Paul Mejia of Miami. Video shared on the group's social media pages showed activists chanting "Which side are you on?" and holding "report cards" giving non-Green New Deal backers an F-. At least two participants took to the floor of lobby to give speeches about the importance of urgent climate action by lawmakers before police came and demanded they leave. A large group left and continued their protest outside Union Station while a smaller group remained and was ultimately escorted away by police. Evan Weber, who heads political strategy for Sunrise, said that it was "Sad that this is what young people have to do to make our voices heard." Don't expect the climate group to let up anytime soon. Among their upcoming agenda items are three consecutive days of "massive srikes" set to begin Earth Day, April 22. "It's only going to get worse unless thousands take action and force those in power to listen to our generation." —Selene Santiago-Lopez"We're done playing by the rules," declared 18-year-old Selene Santiago-Lopez of Wake Forest, N.C., who was among those arrested Monday, in a press statement. "Our entire lives, we've seen politicians failing our generation and our communities. People are dying, I'm terrified about what my future will look like, and it's only going to get worse unless thousands take action and force those in power to listen to our generation. That's exactly what we're going to do."
Green New Deal and R.I. Climate Efforts Lack Color — — Four of the six people sitting at a table near the front door of a busy coffee shop politely pointed out the inadequacies of the Green New Deal and the country’s timid efforts to address a centuries-old system that continues to marginalize people of color.The affable quartet noted that indigenous people like them have been largely shut out of efforts, both locally and nationally, to address the climate crisis and the connected issue of economic inequality.“The smartest person in the room needs to get out of the room,” said Bella Noka, a Rhode Island resident and Narragansett Indian Tribe member. “We need to listen to the child in the corner. We need to listen to everybody.” The Green New Deal makes a lone mention of indigenous people, but, according to Cristina Cabrera, a member of the Pocasset Wampanoag Tribe of the Pokanoket Nation, few, if any, helped craft the document and few have been asked for their thoughts on the issues it addresses. She noted that efforts at the local level to decarbonize don’t include indigenous people.Cabrera said climate and social policy are being increasingly shaped by corporations and the politicians they help elect, which creates a revolving door of corporate interests in government. She noted that corporations enjoy the status of personhood but Mother Earth does not. She said these influences are visible in the Green New Deal. “Corporations continue to extract, mine, dump, and trash, and net-zero formulas and taxing carbon aren’t going to stop the destruction,” the Rhode Island activist and Uruguay native said. “Corporations will capitalize on the solutions. The culture needs to change. We need a celebration of culture, not extraction.”
Extinction Rebellion Targets Commodity Traders in Geneva -- Scores of climate change protesters from a Swiss branch of the Extinction Rebellion campaign group staged protests against commodity houses in Geneva, occupying the office of Vitol Group, the biggest independent oil trader. About 50 protesters breached the offices of Vitol near the Hotel des Bergues in Geneva on Monday, where they used tape to create human outlines on the ground resembling a murder scene. The actions show that disruptive climate activists are now looking beyond crude producers and to the role of commodity traders in buying, transporting, storing and selling fossil fuels. Vitol handles more than 7 million barrels of oil a day and Switzerland is a hub for the industry, with more than 500 firms based there. Dominic Bourg, a spokesman for Extinction Rebellion Lausanne, said the group targeted Vitol both because of its clout as one of the world’s biggest hydrocarbon traders and its ongoing legal problems in developing countries. “If we can imagine a company is a devil, we’ve got a lovely one here,” Bourg said. In a statement, a Vitol spokeswoman said the company “recognizes the need for the energy mix to evolve over time and is already investing in renewable and alternative energy projects. We engage with a range of stakeholders on these matters, and will continue to engage in constructive and informed dialog.” Protesters also visited the exterior of energy trader Gunvor Group’s offices on Rue du Rhone, Geneva’s priciest shopping street, where they constructed another crime scene with taped human outlines and fake blood. “Switzerland is one of the biggest commodity trading hubs and most people don’t know this because they are operating in darkness,” said Sara, an Extinction Rebellion protester, who declined to give her last name.
Climate activists would be better off buying BP -- This week climate activists targeted the front lawn of Trinity College Cambridge to draw attention to the university’s fossil fuel investments, which in their minds should be divested immediately. They also targeted the offices of oil trading companies in Geneva on the basis that they “contribute to climate disruption.” The logic behind both protests is flawed. Take the issue of divestment. Even the most environmentally-committed financiers tend to agree divestment is not a sound strategy to achieve global climate change objectives. Selling an asset doesn’t eradicate the problem at hand. In many cases it just makes the asset more affordable to a new group of opportunistically-minded investors, who may be less concerned about the environment than the old lot.Back in 2015, FT Alphaville moderated a panel at the Paris Climate Finance Day precisely about this matter. It was entitled “How can institutional investors bring their portfolios into line with 2 degrees C?”That was five years ago. Even then, panelists agreed divestment wasn’t necessarily the solution. They preferred to back shareholder activism focused on using votes to influence corporate leadership to transform their business models in line with climate policy targets. Putting your money where your mouth is is sometimes what really counts. Buyingmore fossil fuel investments rather than fewer can ironically be more effective. After all, only then can you buy the companies out and put them under new management inclined to favour clean energy over the fossil sort.The opposite action, on the other hand, risks turning fossil-fuel assets into extremely cashflow-positive dividend stocks, a la tobacco stocks. These remain a no-brainer buy for yield-hungry investors with a penchant for risk-free investing for a reason. Some might argue: Ah! but divestment increases the cost of capital for bad actors, and this can eliminate their businesses by rendering them bust.But this logic doesn’t necessarily apply to highly profitable cashflow-generating assets which operate in an environment where demand for their core product -- cheap energy -- is still increasing year-on-year.If removing legitimate financing from bad actors (operating in highly profitable businesses) really worked, then those dealing in illegal narcotics would have long gone bust by now and the drug problem would be no more. Economic embargoes, meanwhile, would have created world peace. And funding for lending would have saved our economy. None of this has happened because the reality is, if a business is worth doing, somebody somewhere will finance it. That applies to fossil fuel as much as it does to narcotics.
Jeff Bezos Pledges $10 Billion to Fight the Climate Crisis - Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos just pledged $10 billion to fight the climate crisis. The world's richest man announced his Bezos Earth Fund in an Instagram post Monday. "Climate change is the biggest threat to our planet," he wrote. "I want to work alongside others both to amplify known ways and to explore new ways of fighting the devastating impact of climate change on this planet we all share." Jeff Bezos on Instagram: “Today, I’m thrilled to announce I am launching the Bezos Earth Fund. Climate change is the biggest threat to our planet. I want to…” The fund will donate money to scientists, activists and non-governmental organizations working to protect the environment and will begin issuing grants this summer. The announcement is a departure for Bezos, who has historically not chosen to direct his wealth towards philanthropy, according to The New York Times. Indeed, he is the only U.S. citizen among the world's five richest people who has not signed the Giving Pledge to give away more than half his fortune during his life or in his will, Business Insider reported. His $10 billion donation now accounts for around 7.7 percent of his net worth of $130 billion, but even if he gave the whole amount away right now, he would still be the richest man on Earth, The New York Times pointed out. Still, his new fund is the third largest charitable pledge by an individual donor, CNN reported. His foray into philanthropy comes after about a year of climate activism on the part of Amazon employees seeking to push the company in a more Earth-friendly direction. Amazon emitted 44.4 million metric tons of carbon dioxide in 2018, according to its own figures released in September and reported by The New York Times.
Amazon's Bezos pledges $10 billion to climate change fight - (Reuters) - Amazon Chief Executive Officer Jeff Bezos will commit $10 billion to fund scientists, activists, nonprofits and other groups fighting to protect the environment and counter the effects of climate change, he said on Monday. Cutting emissions will be challenging for Amazon. The e-commerce company delivers 10 billion items a year, has a massive transportation and data center footprint, and has faced criticism from within its own workforce. Bezos, the world’s richest man, is among a growing list of billionaires to dedicate substantial funds to battling the impact of global warming. “Climate change is the biggest threat to our planet,” Bezos said in an Instagram post. “I want to work alongside others both to amplify known ways and to explore new ways of fighting the devastating impact of climate change on this planet we all share.” The Bezos Earth Fund will begin issuing grants this summer as part of the initiative. “It’s going to take collective action from big companies, small companies, nation states, global organizations, and individuals,” Bezos said. Counteracting climate change has become a popular cause for U.S. billionaires in recent years, with Microsoft’s Bill Gates, Michael Bloomberg and hedge fund manager Tom Steyer counted among the world’s wealthiest environmental philanthropists. Last year, Bezos pledged to make online retailer Amazon net carbon neutral by 2040 - the first major corporation to announce such a goal - and to buy 100,000 electric delivery vehicles from U.S. vehicle design and manufacturing startup Rivian Automotive LLC. Bezos also said at the time that Amazon would meet the goals of the Paris climate accord 10 years ahead of the accord’s schedule and invest $100 million to restore forests and wetlands.
Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos launches $10 billion climate change fund - Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos, the world’s wealthiest individual, announced on Monday that he is creating a $10 billion charitable fund with his own money to address climate change which will start issuing grants as soon as this summer. In an Instagram post that included a photo of the Earth, the Amazon founder wrote that he was creating the Bezos Earth Fund “to work alongside others both to amplify known ways and to explore new ways of fighting the devastating impact of climate change on this planet we all share.” Bezos also said that the fund would be a “global initiative” that would provide resources to “scientists, activists, NGOs—any effort that offers a real possibility to help preserve and protect the natural world.” He concluded, “We can save Earth. It’s going to take collective action from big companies, small companies, nation states, global organizations, and individuals.” The $10 billion in philanthropy represents less than eight percent of Bezos’s estimated $130 billion net worth. In the world of billionaire charitable giving, the Amazon CEO would jump to third place behind Warren Buffet, who gave $36 billion to the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation in 2006, and Helen R. Walton, who provided $16.4 billion to the Walton Family Foundation in 2007. While there are many questions about the Bezos Earth Fund and how it will operate, one thing is abundantly clear: a significant portion of the $10 billion fund, if not all of it, will be subsidized by the US tax code. Therefore, Bezos’s charitable “global initiative” is in reality a massive American tax shelter that will drain critical government funding.
BP to be “Net Zero:” Unpacking the Oil Major's Announcement - On February 12, 2020, the new CEO of BP made a major announcement. Bernard Looney declared that the oil & gas major would achieve net-zero carbon emissions in all its operations by 2050. He also promised BP would achieve net-zero emissions in all its products by the same date. “The world’s carbon budget is finite and running out fast,” said Looney. “We need a rapid transition to net zero.” Looney followed up the announcement with a statement on his Instagram account. “Simply put, we have to change,” he wrote. “We want to change. And we will change.”The company currently produces 3.7 million bpd, holds 19 billion in proven reserves, and turns out 11.9 million tons of petrochemical products. Net emissions from operations total 55 million tons of CO2 equivalent (MteCO2e) while products emit 360 MteCO2e. To accomplish the feat of net-zero emissions, Looney proposes a re-organization of BP’s entire corporate structure—away from the standard “upstream and downstream” division towards a four-part divisional system focused on Productions & Operations, Customers & Products, Gas & Low Carbon Energy, and Innovation & Engineering.While details remain sketchy, Looney has promised a market day in September, where BP will set out its long-term strategy.The slow rollout of the BP plan has led some to speculate that this may be a public relations move. It is reminiscent of BP’s “Beyond Petroleum” campaign, launched in 2000 and meant to rebrand the company as environmentally friendly.Nor is it unique to BP. Shell famously declared itself to be a gas company first and foremost, following its purchase of BG Group in 2016. It’s becoming fashionable for major corporations to adopt environmentally-friendly PR strategies. Net-zero promises have become very common. And the fine-print in BP’s declaration leaves quite a lot of room for interpretation.
"The Human Race Could Go Extinct": JPMorgan Fearmongers Climate Change Impact In Leaked Report - A new explosive report from JP Morgan was leaked out this week titled "Risky business: the climate and the macroeconomy" warns climate change poses a significant macroeconomic risk to the world economy and could result in a "catastrophic" event. "The response to climate change should be motivated not only by central estimates of outcomes but also by the likelihood of extreme events (from the tails of the probability distribution). We cannot rule out catastrophic outcomes where human life as we know it is threatened," the report advised its top clients. JPM's David Mackie and Jessica Murray, the authors of the report, said: "climate change would not only impact GDP and welfare directly but would also have indirect effects via morbidity, mortality, famine, water stress, conflict, and migration." They said the impact of climate had been underestimated by governments, adding: "Something will have to change at some point if the human race is going to survive." A "global carbon tax should be introduced immediately" to curb climate change and prevent an epic meltdown of the global economy, the economists warned. JPM has so far been reserved in their language about climate change. Still, the new report offers some insight into fearmongering by the investment bank of how global warming could crash the economy, and how a carte blanch approach is needed to solve the crisis. The so-called climate crisis is a guise for the introduction of green bonds, unlimited fiscal deficits, and MMT, a move that would be orchestrated by central banks, governments, and financial elites to fire up the printing presses once more. Financial elites have already crafted a narrative for the average bloke, that governments need to fight climate change immediately through spending vast amounts of money for a green transformation of the economy, or risk economic implosion and loss of life. So the illusionary emergency of climate change is nothing more than fearmongering by financial elites who understand that after decades of money printing via central banks risks a global reset in financial assets, and the only way to solve this upcoming crisis is to create another crisis, called the climate change crisis, to trick everyone into believing more money printing is needed to save the world from rising temperatures (but really more money printing shore up financial assets in hopes the everything bubble doesn’t implode in the next recession). And if you care to read JPM's leaked report, here it is:
How to roast the planet with good intentions: The Climate Equity Act - I have suggested (here and here) that idealism is leading progressives astray. Unfortunately, climate policy offers many examples. Consider the Climate Equity Act of 2019. The CEA was, I believe, the first concrete piece of legislation proposed as part of the Green New Deal. Unfortunately, it illustrates several of the problems with progressive idealism. The CEA is moralistic rather than strategic. It does not take policy analysis seriously; it assumes that Congress can simply write a law requiring justice and that justice will magically appear. In practice, the CEA will do little to promote justice, but it will put a powerful weapon in the hands of opponents of a clean energy transition.The purpose of the CEA is to ensure all people a right to a healthful environment, and to address systemic environmental injustices and inequities. To achieve these goals, the CEA imposes extensive procedural and analysis requirements on federal rules that affect “frontline communities”, which the act defines as low income communities, indigenous communities, communities of color, deindustrialized communities, vulnerable elderly communities, unhoused populations, people with disabilities, and communities dependent on fossil fuel industries. Protecting frontline communities is a worthy goal. However, the federal rulemaking process is already too cumbersome to address a problem like climate change, which will require rapid, economy-wide changes. The CEA will make the problems with the federal rulemaking process much worse. The CEA 1) requires agencies to engage in a comprehensive review of proposed rules and possible alternatives to proposed rules that minimize negative economic, environmental, and health consequences on frontline communities, or maximize benefits to these communities, 2) fails to specify a clear standard for agencies to use when evaluating alternative rules, and does not explain how conflicts between or within frontline communities should be resolved by government agencies, and 3) gives members of any aggrieved frontline community the right to judicial review, including the right to block enforcement of agency rules.If progressives care about preventing climate change, this is insane. Requiring agencies to evaluate multiple options using vague standards and giving a wide array of groups easy access to the courts will turn the CEA into a powerful weapon against all federal rulemaking, including rules that are essential for stopping climate change.
Coronavirus Has Temporarily Reduced China’s CO2 Emissions By a Quarter - As China battles one of the most serious virus epidemics of the century, the impacts on the country’s energy demand and emissions are only beginning to be felt.Electricity demand and industrial output remain far below their usual levels across a range of indicators, many of which are at their lowest two-week average in several years. These include:
- Coal use at power stations reporting daily data at a four-year low.
- Oil refinery operating rates in Shandong province at the lowest level since 2015.
- Output of key steel product lines at the lowest level for five years.
- Levels of NO2 air pollution over China down 36% on the same period last year.
- Domestic flights are down up to 70% compared to last month.
All told, the measures to contain coronavirus have resulted in reductions of 15% to 40% in output across key industrial sectors. This is likely to have wiped out a quarter or more of the country’s CO2 emissions over the past two weeks, the period when activity would normally have resumed after the Chinese new-year holiday. (See methodology below.) Over the same period in 2019, China released around 400m tonnes of CO2 (MtCO2), meaning the virus could have cut global emissions by 100MtCO2 to date. The key question is whether the impacts are sustained, or if they will be offset – or even reversed – by the government response to the crisis.Initial analysis from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) suggests the repercussions of the outbreak could shave up to half a percent off global oil demand in January-September this year. However, the Chinese government’s coming stimulus measures in response to the disruption could outweigh these shorter-term impacts on energy and emissions, as it did after the global financial crisis and the 2015 domestic economic downturn.
Trump’s plan to plant a trillion saplings misses the forest for the trees - Donald Trump, it turns out, is a fan of trees. A big fan. Such a fan, in fact, that at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, late last month, the president announced that the United States will join the One Trillion Tree Initiative, an international plan to plant and restore a trillion trees globally by 2050. Doing so, he said, illustrated the country’s commitment to “conserving the majesty of God’s creation and the natural beauty of our world.” Two weeks later, he again touted the project in his State of the Union speech. These were odd statements and an even odder policy shift from a man who has pushed for drilling and logging in millions of acres of Alaska’s Tongass National Forest, the United States’ largest national forest; shrunk national monuments; and proposed slashing funding for environmental agencies. In a way, experts tell me, Trump’s apparent commitment to the World Economic Forum’s One Trillion Tree Initiative is welcome news. Trees pull carbon from the atmosphere, lead to better air and water quality, increase property values, and, some studies show, may even reduce crime. But while we all love trees, a plan to plant a trillion of them is nowhere near sufficient in addressing climate change. So if this is Trump’s plan to address the global climate crisis, it’s a complete cop-out. “This needs to be, must be, part of a much broader suite of actions,” says Rachel Cleetus, policy director with the Climate and Energy program at the Union of Concerned Scientists. “It’s going to be a drop in the bucket unless we actually are taking ambitious, aggressive near-term efforts to also cut CO2 emissions from our fossil fuel use.”Basically, planting trees without cutting emissions is like trying to clean up a major oil spill without stopping the leak first. It makes zero sense.
German Court Rules Tesla Must Stop Cutting Down Local Forest To Make Room For Its Gigafactory - A German court ruled this week that Elon Musk must halt his plan to clear a forest near Berlin in order to build Tesla's German Gigafactory. The court put the stay on Tesla while it considers challenges from environmentalists, according to Bloomberg. That's right - Tesla was cutting down a forest to put up an EV factory - this is environmentalism in 2020. The court issued an injunction against further construction after it overturned a lower court's ruling against environmental group Gruene Liga Brandenburg, who is looking to prevent Tesla from clearing the forest. The court is expected to render a final decision on the complaint in several days. Joerg Steinbach, spokesman for the regional government said: "Tesla and the local government have already filed their response to the complaint and are now relying on the prompt decision of the court." The court order obviously could hinder Tesla's proposed data to open the factory, which is mid 2020. When open, Musk says the factory would be able to produce 500,000 cars per year and employ 12,000 people. The factory is located right in the backyard of major German auto players like Volkswagen and BMW. Tesla has already cleared about "150 soccer fields" worth of forest and has been forced to relocate several species of animals, while also considering the breeding periods of local wildlife.
German court allows Tesla to keep chopping down trees at factory site - A German court has given Tesla a green light to continue chopping down trees at the site of its next factory after temporarily halting the work. The Higher Administrative Court of Berlin-Brandenburg on Thursday rejected environmental activists’ request to block the electric-car maker from clearing 91 hectares, or about 224 acres, of forested land for its so-called Gigafactory.The court said its decision in Tesla’s favor is final. The ruling came just four days after the court ordered Tesla to stop cutting down the trees so it could consider the advocates’ appeal.Environmental activists have argued the factory, where Tesla plans to produce about 500,000 cars a year, could threaten the area’s water supplies and wildlife. The factory site is in the municipality of Grünheide outside Berlin.CEO Elon Musk’s Silicon Valley-based company has pledged to address environmental concerns about the project by planting trees in an area three times the size of its factory plot and implementing “water-saving measures” in the plant. Tesla has also had to deal with several World War II bombs that were discovered at the factory plot.Tesla first announced plans in November to build its fourth Gigafactory in Germany. The the other three are in Sparks, Nevada; Buffalo, New York; and Shanghai, China, where the company started production last year.
Bernie Sanders Punk'd By Russians Posing As Greta Thunberg -- Vladimir Kuznetsov and Alexey Stolyarov told A.P. News they fooled Sanders in an 11-minute call, all recorded and uploaded to YouTube on Friday. The call was allegedly recorded in early December, over a Skype interview with Stolyarov taking the role of Svante while an unknown woman pretends to be Greta. The imitators started with the possibility of "Greta" endorsing Sanders' presidential campaign. "Let us continue to talk and when you come to the United States I will bring some people together and we can do some interesting things, and if you wanted to make a statement in support of my candidacy and the program we have outlined for climate change, I would be very very appreciative," Sanders said. The pranksters then suggested that "Greta" would record a hip-hop song in support of Sanders together with singer Billie Eilish and rapper Kanye West. They said there would be luxury sports cars and hot women dancing while Sanders wears "gold jewelry." The senator thought it was funny and laughed it off, but apparently, "Greta" was serious. Sanders said the best way for "Greta" to get involved with his campaign was to release a statement of support, along with, if she was in the U.S., could visit him on the campaign trail. The YouTube video is absolutely hilarious, until it all went downhill after "Greta" asked the Vermont senator about his 1988 visit to the Soviet Union. "In the Soviet Union in 1988, after you were recruited, you were programmed to work for Russia, and your memory was erased so the CIA wouldn't track you down," she said. "This is what you believe?" Sanders responded. "Yes, you became a sleeper agent of the KGB. Now it's time to wake up and fulfill your mission, become president of the United States, build communism in the United States, and work for Russia!" And it was at that very moment, a little after ten minutes on the call, Sanders hung up after he realized he was punk'd.
What Democrats said on energy - Former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg used his first appearance on the debate stage last night to boast about his role in the shutdown of coal-fired power plants and to call for enforcing rules to stop the release of methane from fracking. But the former mayor also echoed Sen. Amy Klobuchar by calling natural gas a transition fuel and pitching a piecemeal approach to fracking. (Klobuchar also pointed to plans to make the U.S. carbon neutral, saying "we're not going to be able to pass this unless we bring people with us.") "We're not going to get rid of fracking for a while," Bloomberg said last night. "... It is a technique. When it's done poorly like they're doing in too many places where the methane gets out into the air, it is very damaging. ... We want to go to all renewables but that's still many years from now." Sen. Bernie Sanders meanwhile was asked about a recent New York Times report on whether a candidate who calls for a fracking ban can win in states like Pennsylvania. "What I tell these workers is that the scientists are telling us, if we don't act incredibly boldly within the next six, seven years, there will be irreparable damage done," Sanders said. The candidates also argued about how to get China to cut its carbon emissions. "You're not going to go to war with them," Bloomberg said. "... You have to convince the Chinese that it is in their interests as well. Their people will die just as our people will die, and we'll work together." Former South Bend, Ind. Mayor Pete Buttigieg shot back that he was "a little skeptical that convincing is going to do the trick when it comes to working with China," because "America has repeatedly overestimated our ability to shape Chinese ambitions." And, former Vice President Joe Biden called it "clear" that China is taking the dirtiest coal and spreading it around the world. He said last night he would "invite all the members of the Paris accord to Washington, D.C.," if elected president. "They know me. I'm used to dealing with international relations. I will get them to up the ante," he said. On China, Biden added that he would make it clear to the nation that, "If you continue, you will suffer severe consequences because the rest of the word will impose tariffs on everything you're selling." Sen. Elizabeth Warren was asked about her call to end new drilling and mining on public lands, and opened the door to exceptions for specific resources like lithium or copper. "If we need to make exceptions because there are specific minerals that we've got to have access to, we locate those and we do it not in a way that is just about the profits of giant industries, but in a way that is sustainable for the environment," she said. The senator also brought up the issue of environmental justice, calling for it to get "more than a glancing blow in this debate. ... We can't simply talk about climate change in big global terms. We need to talk about it in terms of rescuing the communities that have been damaged," she said.
Listen: A national climate policy or US energy dominance? (podcast) Even with the Democratic candidate still uncertain, this November's US presidential election presents two distinctly divergent paths forward for global oil policy, David Goldwyn says on today's Platts Capitol Crude podcast.Goldwyn, president of Goldwyn Global Strategies and chair of the Atlantic Council's energy advisory group, says a Trump victory will allow the Trump administration to fully implement its plans to expand US oil and gas production and cut environmental regulations.A Democrat victory will lead to the launch of a national climate policy and strict new limits on energy infrastructure permitting and drilling on federal lands and waters.Oil policy could also swing November's election, particularly in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Goldwyn says.Goldwyn is the co-author of the new report: "Election 2020: What's at Stake for Energy."
EIA projects U.S. energy intensity to continue declining, but at a slower rate - (EIA) EIA’s recently released Annual Energy Outlook 2020 (AEO2020) projects that U.S. energy consumption will grow more slowly than gross domestic product (GDP) through 2050 as energy intensity continues its decades-long trend of decline through the AEO2020 forecast period. Energy intensity is a measure of how efficiently the economy uses energy to produce every dollar of GDP. In the AEO2020 Reference case, total U.S. energy consumption increases at an average annual rate of 0.3% between 2019 and 2050, and GDP grows at an annual rate of 1.9%, which indicates a 1.5% average annual decline in energy intensity during the projection period. By 2050, the domestic energy consumption associated with each dollar of U.S. economic growth is less than half of what it was in 2005. Although growth of energy consumption in the United States is closely tied to growth in GDP and other economic assumptions, it is partially offset by improvements in energy efficiency and other changes in the economy that result in lower energy use per unit of economic output. This trend does not differ much across the AEO2020 side cases that assume faster or slower rates of GDP growth. In the AEO2020 High Economic Growth case, both economic growth and energy consumption are higher than in the Reference case, but energy intensity still declines at 1.6% annually, close to the 1.5% annual decline in the Reference case. Similarly, in the Low Economic Growth case, energy intensity declines 1.4% annually. The U.S. industrial sector consumes more energy than any other sector, and its energy use grows faster than any other sector at an average annual rate of 0.8% through 2050 in the AEO2020 Reference case. Energy intensity in the U.S. industrial sector—measured as energy consumption per dollar of output—declines by 0.4% per year on average through 2050 in the Reference case, mainly because EIA expects less energy-intensive manufacturing industries to grow faster than more energy-intensive manufacturing industries. Energy consumed in the U.S. transportation sector declines by an average of 0.2% annually between 2019 and 2050 in the Reference case. Current fuel efficiency regulations require no additional improvements for new light-duty vehicles after 2025 nor for new heavy-duty vehicles after 2027. Ultimately, vehicle travel demand outpaces fuel economy improvements, and on-road transportation sector energy consumption increases starting in 2041. Beyond light- and heavy-duty vehicles, the energy intensity associated with other transportation modes such as rail, bus, and air travel also decline as energy-efficient technologies and practices are adopted. U.S. residential energy consumption growth is flat between 2019 and 2050, and commercial energy consumption growth averages 0.3% annually in the AEO2020 Reference case.
UK Airports Must Shut to Reach 2050 Climate Target, New Research Concludes -- With the UK due to host this year's round of crucial UN climate talks in Glasgow in November, a group of academics has embarrassed the British government by showing it has currently no chance of meeting its own legally binding target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to nothing within 30 years. Their report, Absolute Zero, published by the University of Cambridge, says no amount of government or public wishful thinking will hide the fact that the country will not reach zero emissions by 2050 without barely conceivable changes to policies, industrial processes and lifestyles. Its authors include colleagues from five other British universities. All are members of a group from UK Fires, a research program sponsored by the UK government, aiming to support a 20% cut in the country's true emissions by 2050 by placing resource efficiency at the heart of its future industrial strategy. The report was paid for under the UK Fires program. As well as a temporary halt to flying, the report also says British people cannot go on driving heavier cars and turning up the heating in their homes. The government, industry and the public, it says, cannot continue to indulge themselves in these ways in the belief that new technologies will somehow save them – everyone will have to work together to change their way of life. Because electric or zero-emission aircraft cannot be developed in time, most British airports will need to close by the end of this decade, and all flying will have to stop by 2050 until non-polluting versions are available.
NEW YORK: Study refuels debate about power line CO2 emissions -- Wednesday, February 19, 2020 -- Increased imports of Canadian hydroelectricity could be a boon for the Northeast's climate goals, despite widespread skepticism from environmentalists and power companies, according to a new working paper from Massachusetts Institute of Technology researchers.
3 things Rep. Metcalfe’s one-sided hearing got wrong about RGGI | Opinion - The House Environmental Resources and Energy Committee’s Feb. 5 hearing was a colossal waste of time and taxpayer resources. Even worse, it spread false and deliberately misleading information about a proven approach to fighting climate change. There was no attempt to debate solutions in a fair and civil public forum. The hearing should have been an opportunity for an open discussion on Pennsylvania joining the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), a cap-and-invest program that creates economic incentives for reducing carbon emissions from power plants. Gov. Tom Wolf announced that his administration would establish a Pennsylvania program designed to join the 10 other states in RGGI, but conservative lawmakers have introduced legislation to block that effort. Despite this meaningful policy disagreement, there was no debate about RGGI at the hearing. The Capital-Star called it “one-sided.” That’s being generous. It was a farce. In reality, it was a RGGI-bashing session led by coal industry execs and orchestrated by committee Chairman Daryl Metcalfe, R-Butler. As the Capital Star reported, Metcalfe invited a dozen anti-RGGI speakers. He invited zero RGGI supporters or anyone from the state agency actually tasked with evaluating and implementing the program. That’s right, not one single climate scientist, green energy industry representative or policymaker from states where RGGI is already working was invited to speak. It’s not possible to refute every false and misleading claim that came out of the hearing in one op-ed. But Commonwealth residents deserve to know the truth about a few critical facts when it comes to RGGI and the future of our environment. First, Governor Wolf’s administration has clear and considerable authority under existing law to join RGGI and adopt a program to control carbon pollution from power plants. The state Air Pollution Control Act delegates this power to the Department of Environmental Protection (DEP), leaving RGGI opponents straining to argue that this market-based program somehow constitutes a “tax.” The second fact the public must understand is that we have more work to do beyond RGGI to reduce carbon emissions in Pennsylvania. S Finally, RGGI is a proven approach to addressing climate change. Several testifiers argued that curbed emissions here would simply pop up in other states that do not participate in RGGI, and Pennsylvania would become an importer of energy. These industry representatives don’t seem to understand that Pennsylvania can structure its program to mitigate emissions “leakage.”
US solar jobs have risen 167% since 2010, new data shows - The solar industry in the U.S. employed 249,983 people in 2019, a 2.3% increase compared to the previous year, according to The Solar Foundation’s “National Solar Jobs Census.” The 2019 numbers represent a small boon for the industry, which saw job losses in both 2017 and 2018. The numbers for 2018 and 2019 include data from Puerto Rico. In a statement Wednesday, The Solar Foundation, a nonprofit organization, said that jobs in the industry had grown by 167% since the publication of the first census for 2010. When it comes to jobs by state, California leads the way with 74,255 workers, although the Golden State did see a 3.4% drop in solar jobs compared to 2018. Overall, solar jobs grew in 31 states last year. Breaking the census down, the 249,983 figure refers to people who spent “the majority of their time on solar-related activities.” If people who spent “some portion of their time” on solar-related work are included, then the total number of workers grows to 344,532. “In just ten years, despite facing many challenges, solar has grown from a niche product to a mainstream energy source that provides a quarter of a million high-quality jobs,” Andrea Luecke, The Solar Foundation’s president and executive director, said in a statement. “This is great news, but it’s only a fraction of what can be accomplished if we are truly committed to solving the climate crisis and expanding the use of solar and storage,” Luecke added. “It’s past time for us to unite as a nation and create even more jobs by harnessing the power of the sun.” To put the solar figures in some sort of context, the American Wind Energy Association says it represents more than 114,000 jobs in the U.S. According to a 2017 report from PricewaterhouseCoopers, produced for the American Petroleum Institute, 10.3 million full and part-time jobs in the U.S. were supported by the natural gas and oil industry in 2015, more than twice the number shown by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Cheap Gas Imperils Climate Fight by Undercutting Wind and Solar - This will almost certainly be a record-breaking year for the advance of solar and wind power across the U.S. The additions that are in progress or planned are significant enough to boost hopes for emissions-free electrical grids within a generation—if natural gas doesn’t get in the way. It just may. Gas is such a bargain that it’s being viewed less as a bridge fossil fuel, driving the world away from dirtier coal toward a clean-energy future, and more as a hurdle that could slow the trip down. Some forecasters are predicting prices will stay low for years, making it tough for states, cities and utilities to achieve their goals of being zero-carbon in power production by 2050 or earlier.“Gas is a tough competitor. “It’s reliable and it’s cheap.” The flood of inexpensive gas does have a big environmental upside, because it’s putting increased pressure on struggling coal plants that contribute significantly to global warming. But it’s also squeezing margins for nuclear reactors, which are the U.S.’s biggest source of carbon-free power. And it’s driving utilities to lay down infrastructure that could ensure gas remains central to the power mix for decades. Solar and wind are certainly winning in many markets on price alone. Just look at the largest grid in the U.S., which stretches from Washington to Chicago and serves more than 65 million people: It has been boosting the amount of power generated with gas and drawing in renewables at a slower rate. That grid happens to crisscross a section of the U.S. that’s home to some of the world’s most abundant natural gas reserves. A drilling boom there and in the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico is a reason why the U.S. benchmark price for gas is less than $2 per million British thermal units. That’s the least for this time of year since the late 1990s. In Asia, prices fell to a record low of less than $3 this month amid a global supply glut and as the coronavirus began slowing demand from China. In Europe, the benchmark Dutch price hit a decade low.
Oil and Gas Industry Is 25 to 40% More Responsible for Global Methane Emissions than Previously Thought -- The oil and gas industry may be contributing even more to the climate crisis than we thought. A study published in Nature Wednesday found that methane emissions from fossil fuel extraction have been underestimated by 25 to 40 percent."This indicates that the fossil fuel sector has a much more polluting impact beyond being responsible for the overwhelming majority of carbon dioxide emissions," Dr. Joeri Rogelj, a climate change lecturer at the Grantham Institute who was not involved with the research, told The Guardian. "This is worrying and overall bad news." While carbon dioxide is the greenhouse gas contributing the most to the climate crisis, methane is now responsible for 25 percent of current global warming, according to CNN. The amount of methane in the atmosphere has more than doubled since the preindustrial era, according to The New York Times, but it has been difficult to pinpoint its source. Methane is released naturally by the ocean and by formations on land known as mud volcanoes. But it is also released by the fossil fuel industry, and most current estimates of the industry release of methane have been grassroots and not comprehensive,The Guardian pointed out. "We have a really good understanding of how much methane concentrations have increased in the atmosphere," . "But it's difficult to track where the increases are coming from for a number of reasons." In order to get a better estimate, the University of Rochester team looked at methane data from before the industrial era. They measured air from around 300 years ago trapped in bubbles in glaciers in Greenland, The Guardian reported. This showed that the natural contribution to methane emissions was much lower than the number currently used to estimate emissions, The New York Times explained. "We've identified a gigantic discrepancy that shows the industry needs to, at the very least, improve their monitoring," study lead author Benjamin Hmiel told The New York Times. "If these emissions are truly coming from oil, gas extraction, production use, the industry isn't even reporting or seeing that right now."
Trump's agriculture department announces 30% biofuel goal for 2050 - (Reuters) - The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Thursday announced a goal for biofuels to make up 30% of U.S. transportation fuels by 2050, a move that could bolster an industry that has been otherwise battered by the Trump administration. Refineries are currently required to blend 20.09 billion gallons of biofuel in 2020, about 10% of projected crude oil production, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. President Donald Trump has been criticized by the corn-based ethanol industry after his Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) granted exemptions to the blend requirement for dozens of oil companies over the last two years. The biofuel goal, which also included getting the blend rate to 15% in 10 years, is part of a new department-wide sustainability initiative aiming to boost farm production by 40% and cut the farm sector’s environmental impact by 50% during the same period. The environmental goal also could deflect criticism from farmers and ethanol producers in an election year. “I think, really, that’s maybe one of the easiest to achieve, with going from E10 to E15 … that’s a 50% increase,” USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue said at a news conference.
Biodigester would transform manure into energy at West Michigan farms - — A dairy farmer in Ottawa County is working with a San Francisco-based energy company with the goal of building a biodigester to transform manure into natural gas. “It’s going to help us become carbon neutral,” said Bill Henke, who owns Beaver Creek Farm in Polkton Township. “It’s going to lower emissions. It’s going to reduce odors.” The machine would be owned and operated by Brightmark Energy, which specializes in renewable natural gas and plastic energy. The company would sell the natural gas created by the biodigester. The goal is to complete the biodigester project by the end of 2021. At this time, the cost of building the biodigester is not finalized, Brightmark officials said. The process of turning manure into natural gas creates sewage, and the plan is to dispose of that sewage at the Muskegon County Wastewater System. Brightmark is working with the county to develop an agreement allowing it to do so, said Dave Johnson, director of the Muskegon County Wastewater Management System. Officials say the plan is to build a pipeline that would carry the biodigester’s sewage to the wastewater treatment plan. Initial estimates show the pipeline could cost $30 million, and that design and engineering expenses could total $1.3 million.
California’s natural gas fight shows the false promise of “renewable natural gas” – Vox - To stay in line with the targets laid out in the Paris climate agreement, the US needs to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, known as “deep decarbonization.” Virtually every credible study on deep decarbonization agrees on the basics of a strategy to get there. The heart of the strategy is cleaning up the power grid, which is currently responsible for 28 percent of US greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It must be rapidly transitioned to zero-carbon sources like renewables, hydro, and nuclear. Concurrently, two of the biggest sources of GHGs, transportation and buildings, must switch over to run on that zero-carbon power. The transportation system (29 percent of US emissions) is almost entirely powered by gasoline and diesel; it must transition to electric vehicles to the extent possible. And buildings (also 29 percent of US emissions) are now frequently heated and cooled by oil or, more commonly, by natural gas; they must transition to electric heating and cooling to the extent possible. This strategy — for which I use the shorthand “electrify everything!” — is beginning to catch on, especially in California, which is always something of a preview of broader trends to come. In a relatively short span of time, a robust “all-electric movement” has emerged, as dozens of towns and cities take steps to encourage all-electric construction in new buildings. Natural gas utilities do not like this movement one bit. The more all-electric buildings there are, the fewer natural gas ratepayers there are. An all-electric future inevitably involves the obsolescence, or at least the substantial diminution, of natural gas utilities. Naturally, they are fighting back furiously, with astroturf groups, PR campaigns, and lobbying at the local level. Their main argument — playing out with particular intensity in California — has to do with “renewable natural gas” (RNG), an industry term for methane captured from biogenic (organic) waste at landfills, livestock operations, farms, and sewage treatment facilities. (It is sometimes called “biogas” or “biomethane.”) RNG can, depending on feedstock and circumstances, be low or even zero-carbon. Utilitiesargue that ramping up the production of RNG and blending it with normal natural gas in pipelines can reduce GHGs faster and cheaper than electrifying buildings. By pursuing electrification, they say, regulators are pushing unnecessary cost hikes onto consumers. It would be nice for the utilities if this were true. But it’s not. RNG is not as low-carbon as the industry claims and its local air and water impacts are concentrated in vulnerable communities. Even if it were low-carbon and equitable, there simply isn’t enough of it to substitute for more than a small fraction of natural gas. And even if it were low-carbon, equitable, and abundant, it still wouldn’t be an excuse to expand natural gas infrastructure or slow electrification.
Judge rips PG&E for poor safety record leading to wildfires - A U.S. judge ripped into Pacific Gas & Electric on Wednesday, saying its executives have put greed before safety and telling officials from the utility blamed for catastrophic California wildfires to plan to add at least 1,100 more tree trimmers to cut the risk of even more blazes. “I am going to do everything I can to protect this state from more death and destruction from this convicted felon," U.S. District Judge William Alsup said of PG&E. He delivered the harsh rebuke of the nation's largest utility during a court hearing to review how well PG&E has complied with the terms of a five-year criminal probation imposed after its natural gas lines blew up a San Francisco Bay Area neighborhood and killed eight people in 2010. The utility was convicted of six felony counts of falsifying records and safety violations in 2016. Alsup blasted PG&E for its abysmal track record since its probation began in January 2017. In that time, PG&E's aging power lines have been blamed for igniting a series of wildfires that killed nearly 130 people and destroyed thousands of homes. The aftermath saddled PG&E with more than $50 billion in potential liabilities, driving the San Francisco company into bankruptcy 13 months ago. The judge told PG&E that he believes the fires could have been prevented had it upgraded and maintained its electrical system instead of funneling billions of dollars into shareholder dividends and executive bonuses. “PG&E poses a threat to the safety of the people of Northern California because you are so far behind," Alsup said.
As electric car sales soar, the industry faces a cobalt crisis -- Global production of electric vehicles is predicted to top four million cars globally this year, rising to 12 million in 2025. In Europe alone, 540,000 electric cars will be sold this year, an increase from 319,000 last year. For that to happen, we don’t just need gigafactories to build the batteries but also need to get hold of the key materials, notably lithium and cobalt — and the gold rush on both has already begun. Last week, The Times reported that Jaguar Land Rover would pause production on the I-Pace, pinning the blame on shortages at battery maker LG Chem. Mercedes halved its 2020 production goals after shortages with the same supplier. "Currently EV uptake is arguably being constrained more by lack of manufacturing capacity than anything else," says Paul Anderson, co-director of the Birmingham Centre for Strategic Elements and Critical Materials. "Lack of battery manufacturing capacity is a key part of this, which is why there is the rush to build gigafactories." A lack of gigantic factories is a problem that can be relatively easily solved. "In June 2019, there were 91 factories in the pipeline for producing lithium ion cells around the world, of which around half were already in production the previous year," says Gavin Harper, research fellow at the Faraday Institution, a battery research group. What isn’t so easily solved is the issue of getting enough raw materials out of the ground. "It’s been predicted that as demand for electric vehicles surges, there could be constraints around the key strategic elements and critical materials needed for EV battery manufacture in the future," says Harper. Aside from the usual hurdles of sourcing and extracting deposits and processing material for use, the key ingredients for EV batteries face geopolitical upheaval including trade wars, local protests, and raise human rights and environmental concerns. That will cause "structural undersupply," says Andrew Leyland, head of strategic advisory at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, and could wreak havoc on EV supply chains just as the industry is hoping to go mainstream.
Solar, wind and batteries expected to outpace new gas-powered generation in Texas - Texas is increasingly moving away from power generated by natural gas, the backbone of the state's electricity system and which supplies about half of the state's generating capacity. Solar power is emerging as the state's fastest growing electricity source, according to the state grid manager, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. Solar developers are expected to install about 68 gigawatts of solar power capacity, representing 61 percent of the power projects expected to come on the grid between now and 2023. One gigawatt provides enough power for about 700,000 homes.Wind developers are expected to add 30 gigawatts of power or 27 percent of total new capacity in the next three years, according to ERCOT. Battery storage developers are on the books to generate 8 gigawatts or 7 percent of new capacity. New natural gas-fired power plants are predicted to add only 6 gigawatts to the Texas power mix, or 5 percent of the total, from 2020 to 2023.
Retirement Of Major Indiana Coal Plant Indicates Shift Toward Sustainable Energy Future - Indiana has 16 coal-fired power generating stations. Each can produce at least one megawatt of electricity. The smallest eight don’t produce much electricity, while the top eight generate a majority of the state’s power. The Merom Generating Station is the fifth-biggest power plant in Indiana, producing almost 6 million megawatts of electricity in 2018. But it’s closing in 2023. Now CEO of the Utilities District of Western Indiana-Rural Electric Co-Op, Doug Childs, much like the state itself, is at a crossroads. After almost 25 years of working with municipal utilities, Childs is now faced with an energy future that will rely less on coal than it ever has. “Really what's happening is the economics of the whole power business have changed so much that generating power by coal is just not the cheapest way to go, by a long shot,” Childs says. “So really, it's just sheer economics have really caught up with Merom. And really, it's catching up or has caught up with virtually every coal plant in the country.” Recent developments in the coal industry have changed the outlook on coal. Tougher federal environmental regulations, market forces and advancing technology have made coal more expensive than other forms of energy. “What’s happening [is] the market is responding to the economic signals they have, and really regardless of what happens, coal is just too expensive right now to be a viable generating source anymore,” Childs says. “Indiana has enough coal, according to the Geological and Water Survey, to power us for another 500 years using today’s technology,” says Bruce Stevens, president of the Indiana Coal Council. Improvements in sustainable energy are making it more reliable. And natural gas is thecheapest it’s ever been.
Just Transition: Amid Climate Debate And Coal’s Decline, West Virginia Considers Its Future -- On a recent soggy Wednesday evening, dozens of West Virginians packed a conference room inside the Charleston Coliseum and Convention Center to discuss the need for a “just transition” for coal-impacted communities.As the nation grapples with climate change, the need for a fair transition for workers and communities that depend upon coal jobs and revenue has also gained traction. Nearly every 2020 Democratic presidential hopeful has touted some version of the idea, ranging from the expansive “Green New Deal” championed by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders to former Vice President Joe Biden’s more modest mix of worker training and direct assistance for coal country.In West Virginia, discussions are starting to get attention in the state’s capital despite strong political support for the coal industry.“When you’re hearing a call for a just transition for coal-reliant communities, folks are saying ‘look, starting now and into the future, we’re going to decarbonize the economy,’” said Ann Eisenberg, a law professor at the University of South Carolina. “There will be disproportionate losses imposed on coal-reliant communities. And that’s unfair. So we’re going to offset the losses. And that is where I think this is a good thing. And it’s also tricky.”Eisenberg was one of a handful of experts who spoke at the event hosted by West Virginia University’s Center for Energy and Sustainable Development, the nonprofit West Virginia Center on Climate Change (an offshoot of conservation group Friends of Blackwater), and the left-leaning West Virginia Center on Budget and Policy. The speakers facilitated a conversation about what constitutes a “just transition” as well as how West Virginia and other regions that depend on coal could actually get there.
In Coal-Heavy W.Va., Senate Advances Utility Solar Bill | West Virginia Public Broadcasting - Lawmakers in the West Virginia Senate have passed a bill that would markedly increase solar generation in the coal-heavy Mountain State. More than 90 percent of electricity generated in West Virginia came from coal in 2018. S.B. 583 creates a utility solar program. Under the bill, the state’s two power generators, American Electric Power and FirstEnergy, could each install up to 200 megawatts of solar capacity, in 50 megawatt increments, potentially creating a 2,500 percent increase in the state’s installed solar capacity. The bill passed the upper chamber Friday, 31-0, with three members absent. It now heads to the House, where a version of the bill introduced in that chamber sparked considerable debate in the House Energy Committee. The West Virginia Commerce Department requested the bipartisan bill. Officials there said West Virginia's lack of solar energy is a detriment to attracting some new businesses to the state, as increasingly large companies require access to renewable energy to meet corporate sustainability targets. If fully implemented, the bill could expand West Virginia’s installed solar exponentially. According to the Solar Energy Industries Association, West Virginia has just over 8 megawatts of installed solar through the third quarter of 2019, and ranked 48th in the nation in installed capacity. “History is being made today,” said Sen. Randy Smith, a Republican from Tucker County, on the Senate floor Friday. “I believe this is the first solar bill ever brought forth on the Senate floor, and I can guarantee it’s the first one ever brought forth by a coal miner.” Under the bill, utilities will be able to concurrently recover the costs of installing the solar through a rate increase approved by the Public Service Commision. PSC Chair Charlotte Lane previously told lawmakers residents can expect to pay about 18 cents per month to cover the cost. Once 85 percent of each 50 megawatt block of solar is purchased or claimed, ratepayers would begin to see the surcharge decrease, she said. The proposal drew sharp criticism from some lawmakers from energy-rich regions of the state. Lobby group the West Virginia Coal Association is opposed to the measure.
Solar bill heads to House as utilities await its fate - — The bill that sets up a system for rapid development of solar as an energy resource in West Virginia will be assigned to a House of Delegates committee for consideration during Monday’s floor session. The measure, SB 583. passed the state Senate unanimously Friday. It would create the Renewable Energy Facilities Program through the state Public Service Commission. Incentives would be available for utilities who go solar.The measure also cuts through the red tape a utility currently faces in the approval process through the PSC and allows for Appalachian Power and First Energy to build as many as four 50 megawatt solar energy plants.Appalachian Power President and CEO Chris Beam said within the last few years a varied energy portfolio has become a top priority for many companies including many of those the state is trying to convince to locate in West Virginia. “I would say five years ago we didn’t hear about this a lot but as things continue to change we are starting to hear about this more and more,” Beam said last week on MetroNews “Talkline.” Actually it’s becoming now, not more of a question, but more of a requirement.”Appalachian Power currently has coal fired power plants, natural gas plants, hydro generation and wind but no solar. The bill would allow solar to be added in an expedited way. Beam said the bill has some wisdom built into it. It only allows his company and First Energy to build one 50 megawatt solar plant at a time. He said a second plant could not be built until all of the energy is being used from the first plant. Up to four could be constructed. “If you don’t have anyone that wants any more you don’t build any more and you don’t subject any customers to any higher risks,” Beam said.
House OKs bill regulating repairs to structures damaged by mining — The West Virginia House of Delegates on Friday voted for a rules bundle that included new regulations on how coal companies are to repair damages or compensate property owners in the event underground mining damages a home or other structure.In December, the Republican majority in the Legislature’s rule-making review committee voted that if coal operators cause damage to a home or other structure due to underground coal mining, those coal operators, and not the residents, would get to decide how they want to make up for the damages.Lawmakers had originally decided to alter that area of code at the request of the coal industry, after West Virginia Supreme Court justices found that the code was ambiguous and that the owner of the damaged structure should decide which remedy, compensation or repair. Last month, lawmakers in the House of Delegates Energy Committee took out the rule-making review committee’s amendment and adopted their own. They adopted language stating that the property owner would decide if the company would have to compensate them in the amount of the cost to repair, but not to exceed the pre-mining value of the structure, or if the company would pay them the amount the home lost in value. Their version was supported by the West Virginia Coal Association.Republicans in that committee rejected an attempt by Democrats to allow the owners, if they selected the option to repair, to receive up to 150 percent of the value of their home. Democrats had noted that repairs could end up being more expensive than the home was worth, and that homes have sentimental value.Thursday, the House of Delegates approved an amendment, put forward by House Judiciary Chairman John Shott, R-Mercer, to allow home-owners to receive up to 120 percent of the structure’s value, should they choose the option to repair.Republicans said, on the floor Friday, that voting down the bill, House Bill 4217, would mean going back to the DEP rule in effect in July 2019. Under questioning on the floor Friday, Shott said it would mean giving coal companies the decision-making authority.However, House Minority Leader Tim Miley, D-Harrison, said the legal counsel for the Democrats believed that voting down the rule would mean reverting to the rule originally introduced by DEP.And even though the coal industry had requested the DEP give them the decision-making authority, DEP had not proposed that. Republicans on the rule-making review committee had. DEP did not alter that section of code, only adding a section clarifying that the DEP doesn’t adjudicate property rights disputes.
EPA consulting White House over biofuel waiver program: source - (Reuters) - The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is seeking White House guidance on the future of its controversial biofuel waiver program after a court ruling cast doubt over its legitimacy, and aims to announce a decision by early next month, a source familiar with the matter said on Friday. In late January the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 10th Circuit said the EPA must reconsider some waivers it gave oil refineries exempting them from the nation's biofuel blending laws. The ruling here has prompted speculation that the EPA will need to reconsider dozens of other waivers it has granted under similar circumstances, and drastically reduce the numbers of waivers handed out in the future. The exemption program has saved oil refineries hundreds of millions of dollars in regulatory costs. But it has infuriated the corn and biofuel industries, which say the Trump administration has overused the exemptions in a way that undermines demand for corn-based ethanol. The oil industry refutes that the exemptions hurt ethanol demand. The EPA will announce a response to the court’s decision by March 9 after consultations with the White House, according to the source, who asked not to be named. “EPA and (the Department of Justice) are reviewing the decision and carefully considering its potential impact on the program,” EPA spokeswoman Molly Block said in a statement. EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler had told reporters this month that the ruling “has the potential of completely, of changing the small refinery program.”
Trump May Approve Strip Mining on Tennessee’s Protected Cumberland Plateau —Even as the nation's demand for coal tumbles, the Trump administration is considering a permit that would allow strip mining on protected ridgelines in Tennessee's Cumberland Plateau over the objection of environmental groups and the state's Republican attorney general. The wild, scenic terrain is within 75,000 acres designated, at the state's behest, as unsuitable for surface coal mining in 2016 by the Obama administration's Office of Surface Mining and Reclamation, the agency responsible for regulating coal mining in the state. Senior Assistant Attorney General Elizabeth McCarter said in an October letter to the Trump administration that the federal designation prohibits surface mining on protected ridgelines in what is now the North Cumberland Wildlife Management Area, even though a mining company with mineral rights in the area had recently obtained surface rights from the state to 150 protected acres. Triple H Coal of Jacksboro, Tennessee, has been trying to get permission to mine about 400 acres in the area since 2012, and filed an updated application last March to strip mine part of that land in Campbell County. "I don't think the environmental impacts are there," said Phillip Boggs, an engineering consultant for Triple H, when asked about the company's plans. "They're minimal, I'll put it that way." Michael Castle, director of the Office of Surface Mining's Knoxville Field Office, referred questions to headquarters about whether a prohibition on strip mining remains in effect on the land designated unsuitable for mining. "We are processing that permit, business as usual," he said. "There's no final decision yet." The Cumberland Plateau spans eastern Tennessee from Alabama into Kentucky. The Nature Conservancy describes it as a "labyrinth of rocky ridges and verdant ravines dropping steeply into gorges laced with waterfalls and caves, ferns, and rhododendrons."
Top coal mines in the Illinois Basin decreased production 2% in 2019 - The top-producing coal mines in the Illinois Basin held production relatively flat in 2019 despite declining coal demand across the U.S. The 25 largest coal mines in the region produced a total of about 91.5 million tons of coal in 2019, down by about 2.0% from the prior year, according to an S&P Global Market Intelligence analysis. The same mines produced about 20.0 million tons of coal in the fourth quarter of 2019, decreasing from 22.8 million tons in the previous quarter and 23.7 million tons in the year-ago quarter. A December 2019 report from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis projected that "most of the Illinois Basin coal industry will be gone" within 20 years. Production in the region will be challenged by new coal plant retirements and reduced utilization of the coal plants remaining, the report from the sustainability-focused energy think tank said. "Just in the past year, producers have closed or idled mines that produced almost nine million tons of coal in 2018," the report stated. "Further closures are likely, both in the near- and long-term. The Illinois Basin will clearly be hit hard economically by the structural decline of the region's coal industry." Alliance Resource Partners LP owns five of the top-producing mines in the region. Together, they produced about 27.9 million tons of coal in 2019, increasing slightly from 27.5 million tons of production in 2018. "In 2019, [Alliance] was able to pick up 2.8 million tons of domestic market share because of mine closings in the Illinois Basin," Alliance President and CEO Joseph Craft said on a Jan. 27 earnings call. "We believe the pressures on other operators are increasing as the headwinds facing the U.S. thermal coal industry persist." River View, the company's largest mine in the Illinois Basin, produced 11.3 million tons of coal in 2019, increasing from 9.8 million tons in 2018. The company's Cardinal and Gibson mines also produced more coal in 2019 compared to 2018. The company's other two mines in the region reported lower production in 2019 year over year, including Gibson South with a 22.7% drop to 5.4 million tons compared to 2018.
Coal Shipping In US Industrial Heartland Collapses To 35-Year Low -- President Trump vowed to make "Coal Great Again" and restore the industrial heartland. But it seems as Trump's many campaign promises to coal miners have been broken, as there's hardly a peep from the administration about the imploding industry. Take, for instance, a new report from A.P. News, that details how Twin Ports of Duluth-Superior, recorded its lowest coal cargo volumes in three decades during the 2019 shipping season. Greg Nemet, a public affairs professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said coal shipments in the port have plunged as the demand for renewable energy has soared in recent years. "It's really a competition between coal, natural gas, and renewables. It's cheaper to make electricity with natural gas and with solar," Nemet said. "Coal really can't compete with either of those."A.P. said 8 million tons of coal moved through the Twin Ports, the lowest volume since 1985. U.S. coal production has plunged from 1.2 billion tons in 2008 to 597 million last year. Despite Trump's promises to revive the industry, production continues to decline. Trump was silent last year after a significant bankruptcy wave devastated the industry. Deteriorating coal industry fundamentals and escalating environmental, social and governance concerns, led to the recent bankruptcy of Peabody, the world's largest coal producer. Trump routinely pumped the coal industry, calling it "indestructible" and telling everyone on social media that "coal is back." The hopes of a coal rebound were all for election purposes. The industry is imploding, as it's clear that, according to Trump, the stock market is more important than the real economy.
Gulf Power's coal burn falls 20.8% on month in January: filing — Gulf Power saw its coal burn fall to 88,593 st in January, down 20.8% from 111,925 st in December and 47.1% lower than 167,418 st in the year-ago month, according to a state regulatory filing. Coal's generation mix was at 27.6%, or 170,821 MWh, in January, down from 49.3%, or 317,511 MWh expected for the month, according to filings published by the Florida Public Service Commission. The generation mix was down from 34.1%, or 229,280 MWh, in December and 50.5%, or 324,217 MWh, in the year-ago month. Natural gas' mix was at 71.8%, or 472,859 MWh, in January, up from 65.5% in December and 49.2% in the year-ago month. In January, Gulf Power's average fuel cost for coal was $65.56/st, down from $66.17/st in December but up from $63.38/st in the year-ago month. Heat rate efficiency for coal was at 9,414 Btu/KWh in January, while gas was at 7,048 Btu/KWh, resulting in dispatch prices of roughly $33.98/MWh and $18.61/MWh, respectively. In December, coal's dispatch price was $33.02/MWH and gas' price was $19.64/MWH, while in the year-ago month, coal was at $33.45/MWh and gas at $27.33/MWh. Gulf Power owns the Crist coal-fired power plant in Pensacola, Florida, as well as a 50% ownership of Mississippi Power's Daniel plant in Escatawpa, Mississippi and a 25% stake in one generating unit at Georgia Power's Scherer plant in Juliette, Georgia.
One-fifth of recent coal shipped to US power sector went to plants set to retire - Nearly one in five of the tons of coal delivered to U.S. power generators in the first three quarters of 2019 went to power plants planning to close by 2025 or earlier. With no coal-fired power plants on the drawing board at home and diminished demand overseas, U.S. producers will likely struggle to find a new home for tons that were going to the export market as producers compete for what remains of a domestic customer base in secular decline. Of the 540.5 million tons of coal produced in the first three quarters of 2019, 406.0 million tons were reported as delivered to U.S. coal plants, an S&P Global Market Intelligence data analysis shows. Of those shipments, coal companies sent 19.6% of the tonnage to plants scheduled to retire before the end of 2025. The domestic market needs to see coal producers pull back on output to match supply to demand, Alliance Resource Partners LP President and CEO Joseph Craft said on a Jan. 27 earnings call. This year will be an inflection point for producers, according to the CEO. "Reduced export volumes and tepid domestic coal demand due to persistently low natural gas prices caused a significant oversupply in the United States, creating additional pressure on domestic coal prices and producers," Craft said. "We continue to believe that current market conditions are unsustainable for most of [Alliance's] competitors." Of the 20.8 million tons of coal Alliance shipped to U.S. power plants in the analyzed period, 11.9% went to plants retiring before the end of 2025. Power plants closed 13.7 GW of coal capacity in 2019, the highest annual level since 2015, a recent Market Intelligence analysis found. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimated in January that another 69 GW of coal-fired capacity would retire, mostly by 2025. Based on its 2020 Annual Energy Outlook, the agency expects the annual rate of retirement from 2023 to 2025 to exceed the record 15 GW of coal-fired capacity shut down in 2015. Other U.S. coal producers are even more reliant on plants scheduled to close by 2025. Peabody Energy Corp. and Arch Coal Inc. are finishing regulatory approval for a joint venture tying together certain Powder River Basin and Colorado coal mines, hoping to better compete with natural and renewable energy resources. The two producers are the largest companies by production volume in the country's largest coal basin. In the first three quarters of 2019, 22.0% of Peabody's reported deliveries to power plants and 17.7% of Arch's deliveries to power plants went to power plants set to retire in 2025 or earlier.
Morgan Stanley: $64B capex upside for utilities replacing coal with renewables | S&P Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC sees a $64 billion spending opportunity on top of double-digit earnings accretion for more than a dozen utilities that decide to retire uneconomic coal plants and replace them with cheaper renewables by 2025. "We compared the costs of operating each coal plant against our state-by-state forecasts of renewables costs across 13 stocks and identified [47,000 MW] of coal capacity that will become more expensive than renewables by 2024," Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a recent research report. "We estimate this represents a capex opportunity of [$64 billion] and earnings accretion for the stocks we cover of up to 14% in 2025." The report, "The Second Wave of Clean Energy — Part II: Who Can Ride the Wave?" follows a December 2019 report in which the research firm forecast that about 70,000 MW to as much as 190,000 MW of coal-fired generation is "economically at risk" from the deployment of a "second wave of renewables" in the U.S. The research firm said these projections exclude about 24,000 MW of coal generation already set to shut down. "We think that the economics make sense that the utilities in general should be pursuing this just because it seems to benefit everybody," Morgan Stanley analyst Stephen Byrd said in a Feb. 11 phone interview. "It benefits shareholders, customers and the planet." Ameren Corp., American Electric Power Co. Inc., Duke Energy Corp. and Pinnacle West Capital Corp. are seen as best positioned to take advantage of a second wave of clean energy. The research firm said it has identified $2.9 billion in untapped renewables investment opportunity that could allow Ameren, which it upgraded to "overweight," to grow its earnings "at the high end" of the St. Louis-headquartered utility's 6% to 8% earnings growth target.
Why the world’s third-largest economy is still betting on coal - Japan, the world’s third-largest economy, is leaning into coal power, a striking move at a time when the climate crisis is accelerating and most of its economic peers are cutting back on the high-polluting energy source. The prospect of more coal has been looming for years: In 2018, Japan proposed adding 36 new coal plants to its fleet. Earlier this month, the New York Times reported that Japan has revised that plan but is still on track to add a total of 22 coal-fired power plants at 17 sites in the next five years. Some 15 of these plants are already under construction.If all 22 plants were to come to fruition, Japan will install enough new coal power capacity to emit an additional 74.7 million metric tons of carbon dioxide each year, more than the total emissions of countries like Norway and Sweden.This coal buildout would make Japan, the world’s fifth-largest greenhouse gas emitter, the only G7 country building more coal power plants domestically and the largest G7 financier of coal generation in other countries. Under the Paris climate agreement, Japan committed to cutting its emissions 26 percent below 2013 levels by 2030, a target activists already considered to be weak. Last year, Japan’s cabinet also adopted an emissions reduction strategy that would make the countrycarbon neutral after 2050. But if the 22 new coal plants get up and running, Japan couldblow past its 2030 target and move further off track from its 2050 target.
House again considers tax breaks for aging, struggling coal-fired power plants - — The House of Delegates is again considering a tax break for struggling coal-fired power plants. A bill that was passed out of the House Energy Committee on Tuesday afternoon serves as a sequel. Last summer, the Legislature passed a bill aimed specifically at providing relief for financially-troubled Pleasants Power Station. This bill would affect plants beyond that, particularly the Mount Storm Generating Station, operated by Dominion Energy in Grant County. It’s possible the bill could affect the Longview Power Plant near Morgantown. The tax cuts could amount to about $16 million, state Deputy Revenue Secretary Mark Muchow told members of the energy committee. That’s a tough ask in a flat budget year, but those who support the bill say it’s money the state would never see if power plants go bust. Last summer, analysts at Moody’s predicted that use of thermal coal for U.S. power generation could fall to as little as 11 percent by 2030. That’s largely because as aging coal-fired plants go offline they are being replaced by natural gas-fired plants. “Most of the coal plants now are not operating at full capacity, yet they are being taxed as if they are at full capacity,” said House Energy Chairman Bill Anderson, R-Wood. Under the bill being considered, those plants would be taxed at a rate of 45 percent of their capacity. “That puts everyone on the same playing field, and it’s the reality of the state of coal-fired generation in the state today,” Anderson said. “It’s an attempt to provide relief to these plants that employ thousands of West Virginians and to allow them to continue.” Chris Hamilton, president of the West Virginia Coal Association, said the potential relief is welcome. “It’s very consistent with our primary objective, trying to extend the life of these plants, trying to extend the reliance on coal-fired electricity.”
Senate, too, moves bill providing tax breaks for aging, struggling coal-fired power plants - WV MetroNews— The Senate Finance Committee quickly voted for a bill that would give tax breaks for aging, struggling coal-fired power plants.Democrats on the committee asked several questions about Senate Bill 793 that weren’t clearly answered, but a majority of committee members voted in favor of moving the bill to the floor after a discussion of about 15 minutes.The House Energy Committee approved a similar bill just the prior day. That one is also assigned to House Finance.State revenue officials have said the tax cut could amount to $16 million.“Who would benefit from this bill?” asked Senator Bill Ihlenfeld, D-Ohio, later asking if the bill was written with any particular power plant in mind.The answer from Deputy Revenue Secretary Mark Muchow didn’t specify any particular power plant operator. Instead, Muchow spoke of the challenges coal-fired power plants are currently facing.“It’s a tough outlook for coal-fired power plants,” Muchow said.Last summer, analysts at Moody’s predicted that use of thermal coal for U.S. power generation could fall to as little as 11 percent by 2030. That’s largely because as aging coal-fired plants go offline they are being replaced by natural gas-fired plants.“So basically this bill is an attempt to go against the trend of these power plants shutting down all across the country,” said Senator Corey Palumbo, D-Kanawha.
Bow power plant wins funding through 2024 - The Merrimack Station power plant in Bow can stay open through at least mid-2024, as the coal-fired power plant has won another year’s funding from a New England program designed to guarantee future electricity supplies. The coal-fired plant will receive roughly $676,000 for each month from June 2023 through May 2024, a total of $8.1 million, in return for promising to generate power at any time if the need arises. The plant has previously won payments to stay open through mid-2023. That award comes as part of the capacity auction run by ISO-New England, which operates the six-state power grid. The auction, which involves electricity generators throughout the region, is designed to make sure that enough power plants will be open three years from now to meet projected demand. The capacity payment is made regardless of whether emergency electricity is needed, and comes on top of any per-kilowatt income the power plants receive for actually generating power. The auction results are good news for the town of Bow, which receives hefty property tax payments from Merrimack Station. The state’s two other coal-fired plants – smaller units in Portsmouth – and an adjacent wood-burning plant did not win anything in the capacity auction. This might affect whether the future of those three, known as Schiller Station. The 448-megawatt Merrimack Station and 150-megawatt Schiller Station are owned by Granite Shore Power, an investment group that bought them from Eversource in 2017. These days they operate mostly as “peaker plants,” providing power only occasionally to meet peak demand, usually during winter when gas-fired power plants can’t get enough fuel because natural gas is used to heat homes.
After historic environmental spill, TVA says it now has 'world class' coal ash cleanup approach The coal ash slurry spill at the Kingston Fossil Plant more than 11 years ago dumped more than 1.1 billion gallons of coal fly ash into neighboring rivers and properties in one of the worst environmental spills in U.S. history. TVA President Jeff Lyash said the spill "should never have happened" and TVA needs to and has taken responsibility for the mistakes that led to the ash dike failure. But in spite of claims by some cleanup workers that they were lied to and unnecessarily harmed by TVA's main contractor for the cleanup, Lyash said the ultimate site restoration has become a model for other utilties on how to clean up coal ash. The spill at Kingston in December 2008 released a slurry of fly ash and water, which traveled across the Emory River and its Swan Pond embayment, and eventually covered up to 300 acres of the surrounding land. The initial spill, which rendered many properties uninhabitable, cost TVA more than $1 billion to cleanup, and was declared complete in 2015. But many employees of an engineering firm hired by TVA to clean up the spill, Jacobs Engineering, have since developed illnesses and cancers and sued both Jacobs and TVA for damages. In November 2018, a federal jury ruled that the contractor did not properly inform the workers about the dangers of exposure to coal ash and failed to provide them with necessary personal protective equipment. A grand jury in Roane County last month filed an addendum to their report suggesting that the Tennessee Bureau of Investigation should pursue a criminal investigation "into certain issues pertaining to cleanup worker safety." The judge in the Knoxville case against Jacobs ordered the company and plaintiffs to try to mediate a monetary settlement in the case for the roughly 200 affected workers, but 15 months later no deal has yet been struck. Jacobs continues to deny it caused the workers to be injured. Jacobs attorney Theodore Boutrous said the company "stands by its work assisting TVA with the difficult job of managing the cleanup of the Kingston coal ash spill."
Coal ash battle continues in middle Georgia -- Residents of the city of Juliette are rallying behind a pair of bills working through the state legislature that would require more stringent standards for the disposal of coal ash. At a meeting on Monday night in Monroe County— the third such meeting held for the community — environmental advocates, county officials, residents and at least one state representative expressed concerns about how the plant waste might be managed at Georgia Power’s Plant Scherer and how Juliette residents could be assured their water is clean in the interim. Residents have been concerned that the coal ash— waste from coal-fired plants that may contain arsenic, lead, mercury and other heavy metals that can be toxic to humans — has gotten into their water supply.With more than 6 million tons of coal ash produced each year, Georgia is one of the top coal ash-generating states. Most of Georgia’s coal ash has been generated by Georgia Power at 11 coal-fired power plants stretching from Rome in the northwest part of the state to Brunswick on the coast.Plant Scherer, in Juliette, north of Macon, open since the 1980s, is one of five plants across the state at which Georgia Power has proposed leaving toxic ash in unlined pits where environmentalists say it may come into contact with groundwater. Georgia Power has said the closure plans meet the requirements of both state and federal laws and are under review with the state Environmental Protection Division, and that their data found no risks to public health or drinking water.
Public hearing on Dukeville coal ash plans scheduled Monday - — The North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality will hold a public hearing 6 p.m. Monday about plans to excavate coal ash at Duke Energy’s Buck Power Station. The hearing will take place in the auditorium at North Rowan High School in Spencer and begin with an informational session where attendees can have questions answered before public comments. In addition to the comments received at the public hearing, written and emailed comments will also be considered until March 16 for whether the state should approve the closure plans. Written comments can be submitted to Louise Hughes of the North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality at 1601 Mail Service Center in Raleigh, NC, 27699. Comments can also be submitted via email to rowancomments@ncdenr.gov. Duke submitted closure plans in December for the excavations, as required by the Coal Ash Management Act of 2016. Also in 2016, Duke, the Yadkin Riverkeeper and the Waterkeeper Alliance reached a settlement that requires Duke to excavate and recycle all coal ash at Buck Steam Station. If not recycled, the coal ash can be transported to a lined landfill away from groundwater and the Yadkin River, according to the settlement. The settlement came at a time when water contamination was a major issue in the rural Dukeville community. In January, the coal ash debate was settled after Duke, state regulators and environmental advocacy groups agreed to permanently close Duke’s remaining nine coal ash basins in the state by excavating the ash to lined landfills. Bill Norton, a spokesperson for Duke Energy, said the recycling unit at Buck Power Station is set to begin fully operating in August. Buck is the first of three recycling units in North Carolina. Norton added that once all three recycling facilities are operating, the units will be able to recycle more coal ash — both old and new — in a given year than the six remaining coal-fired facilities in the Carolinas can produce. This amounts to 400,000 tons of ash per year per unit.
County hearing on TVA landfill set - — — Anderson County Commission has planned a hearing regarding a possible future TVA landfill in the Claxton community. The County Commission hearing will be at 4 p.m. Tuesday, Feb. 18, in Room 312 of the Anderson County Courthouse in Clinton, an official announcement stated. County Commission is encouraging citizens to voice opinions or provide written comments to TVA Permit, 101 S. Main St., Suite 310, Clinton, TN, 37716. The landfill public hearing specifically involves a landfill TVA may build near the intersection of Edgemoor Lane and New Henderson Road to hold byproducts of burning coal, including coal ash. “I didn’t realize the extent of this landfill,” County Law Director Jay Yeager told County Commission at its Jan. 21 meeting, explaining it will, if built, be located on 60 acres. TVA has not committed to whether or not it will build the landfill. Scott Brooks with TVA public relations has said if built, the landfill will be for storing coal ash and other byproducts of burning coal — called coal combustion residuals or CCR — currently kept near the Clinch River or for new coal ash produced before the Bull Run Fossil Plant closes in 2023. Yeager told The Oak Ridger in a phone interview that the county is looking for people to express “health and environmental concerns” at the hearing. He said TVA and Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation officials will be present, along with citizens, but he is not certain which officials will attend.
EPA proposes additional rollback to Obama-era coal ash regulation - The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on Wednesday announced a new proposed rollback to an Obama-era regulation dealing with waste from coal-fired power plants known as coal ash. The proposed changes are the Trump administration's second set of changes to protections on waste laden with arsenic. The EPA's proposal would ease regulations for the liners that coat the bottom of coal ash pits in order to stop the cancer-linked substance from leaking into groundwater. It would also in some cases allow the use of coal ash in closing landfills. “These common-sense changes will provide the flexibilities owners and operators need to determine the most appropriate way to manage [coal ash] and the closure of units based on site-specific conditions,” EPA administrator Andrew Wheeler said in a statement. Environmentalists, however, said that the changes would weaken environmental protections. “The draft rule is a gift to the coal utility industry while endangering the health of people around the country and the environment,” Lisa Evans, senior attorney for Earthjustice, said in a statement. “Coal plants are the number one source of toxic pollution in the nation’s waterways, and coal ash has contaminated groundwater at nearly every power plant site in the country,” Evans added. She also said she believes that the rule changes are “contrary” to a court order requiring the EPA to strengthen protections from coal ash. Coal ash is used in a variety of ways, largely as a replacement for soil. It can be used to create level ground for construction projects or sprinkled over landfills as a protective cover. The Trump administration has previously proposed eliminating restrictions that restricted coal ash use to 12,400 tons per site.
EPA Proposes New Federal Coal Ash Disposal Permits - Utility companies in most states would need a federal permit to dispose of coal ash under a proposal that the EPA announced Wednesday.The EPA announced its plan to require federal permits for coal ash disposal in states that lack their own permitting programs.Under the Water Infrastructure Improvements for the Nation Act of 2016, states can create their own permitting programs for coal ash disposal, which must be at least as stringent as federal law. Only Georgia and Oklahoma have EPA-approved permitting programs so far. The new proposal would make federal coal ash disposing permits mandatory in nonparticipating states.
The Oil Industry Is Quietly Winning Local Climate Fights - - Some of the most important fights over climate change aren’t being waged in Washington. They’re happening state by state, in a melee of utilities, fossil-fuel companies, state legislators, and persuaded voters. To see one in action, visit Beaver, Pennsylvania, where two Westinghouse nuclear reactors produce roughly a fifth of the Keystone State’s zero-carbon electricity. Three years ago, FirstEnergy Corporation, a private utility worth $28 billion, announced that it would soon have to sell the nuclear plants or shut them down. Even though the reactors were supposed to operate for another few decades, the plunging cost of natural gas had made them noncompetitive. Only direct subsidies could keep the plants alive, the utility warned. State lawmakers had not even proposed a bill floating that option when a new group called Citizens Against Nuclear Bailouts burst onto the scene. Boasting support from local manufacturers and, unexpectedly, the AARP, the group told local reporters that itopposed “any legislative effort” to subsidize the plants. At the same time, a micro-targeted group of Pennsylvanians received a deluge of direct mailers, phone calls, and Facebook ads, exhorting them to call state senators to oppose a “nuke bailout.” “These billion dollar companies don’t need bailouts, they need to compete with other energy companies on a level playing field,” said one postcard-size mailer. A small disclosure on the mailers revealed that they had, in fact, not come from a group of self-organized Pennsylvanians. The mailers were funded and shipped by the American Petroleum Institute, the lobbying champion for oil and natural-gas companies in national politics. The return address on the mailers was one of the group’s offices in downtown Washington, D.C.
TVA and Oak Ridge National Laboratory to jointly study small modular reactor project at Oak Ridge -America's biggest government utility is getting some extra federal help in developing and planning for the possibility of building the next generation of flexible, advanced nuclear reactors.The U.S. Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the Tennessee Valley Authority last week signed a memorandum of understanding to jointly evaluate how to develop, build and operate small modular reactors, which TVA is considering building near ORNL in Oak Ridge. Under the agreement, ORNL and TVA will collaborate on ways to improve the economic feasibility of potentially licensing, building, operating and maintaining one or more advanced nuclear reactors, such as a small modular reactor, at TVA's 935-acre site on the Clinch River. TVA gained approval in December from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission for an early site permit in Oak Ridge where DOE planned on building a breeder reactor in the 1970s until then President Jimmy Carter scrapped the project over concerns about nuclear proliferation.
Energy deputy secretary nominee faces heat after contradicting Trump – Trump administration officials are internally raising concerns about President Trump’s nominee for Energy deputy secretary, who appeared to openly contradict the president on nuclear waste storage at Nevada’s Yucca Mountain last week. While speaking at a House Energy and Commerce subcommittee hearing last Wednesday, Mark Menezes told members of the panel that the Trump administration is still interested in storing nuclear waste at Yucca Mountain and that “what we're trying to do is to put together a process that will give us a path to permanent storage at Yucca." His statement came just weeks after Trump tweeted that he hears and respects Nevadans’ concerns about the nuclear waste repository — part of a long-standing “not in my backyard” battle. “[M]y Administration is committed to exploring innovative approaches – I’m confident we can get it done!” Trump said. Menezes’ remarks also came just days after the White House unveiled its fiscal year 2021 budget, which does not include funding for Yucca Mountain. The administration’s previous budget requests included $120 million and $116 million, respectively, to maintain licensing for the site. Menezes’ comments were flagged internally to White House officials who have been working on Yucca Mountain, an administration official told Axios. “It’s a big deal that the possible No. 2 at the Department of Energy came out in defiance [of] the president’s very strong position on a huge issue," the official said, calling it "shocking" that Menezes would "basically give a middle finger to the president." A second administration official told Axios that Menezes knew for weeks that funding for Yucca Mountain was going to be seized, adding to internal frustration over his comments last week: “When the budget comes out, and it has made a change from previous years, everyone's notified of that. Department of Energy is clearly in the know about that because it’s a core change.” Trump’s comments about Yucca Mountain, as well as his decision to cease funding for the repository, come as his re-election campaign seeks to turn Nevada red again after narrowly losing the state to Hillary Clinton in 2016.
France Shuts Down Oldest Reactors, But Nuclear Power Still Reigns (AFP) - France will start closing its oldest atomic power plant on Saturday after 43 years in operation, the first in a series of reactor shutdowns but hardly a signal the country will reduce its reliance on nuclear energy anytime soon. Unplugging the two reactors at Fessenheim, along the Rhine near France's eastern border with Germany and Switzerland, became a key goal of anti-nuclear campaigners after the catastrophic meltdown at Fukushima in Japan in 2011. Experts have noted that construction and safety standards at Fessenheim, brought online in 1977, fall far short of those at Fukushima, with some warning that seismic and flooding risks in the Alsace region had been underestimated. Despite a pledge by ex-president Francois Hollande just months after Fukushima to close the plant, it was not until 2018 that President Emmanuel Macron's government gave the final green light. "This marks a first step in France's energy strategy to gradually re-balance nuclear and renewable electricity sources, while cutting carbon emissions by closing coal-fired plants by 2022," Prime Minister Edouard Philippe said in a statement Wednesday. The first reactor will start being shut down on Saturday and the second on June 30, though it will be several months before they go cold and the used fuel can start to be removed. France will still be left with 56 pressurised water reactors at 18 nuclear power plants -- only the United States has more reactors, at 98 -- generating an unmatched 70 percent of its electricity needs. Just months after his 2017 election, Macron infuriated environmental activists by abandoning a 2015 target to reduce nuclear in France's energy mix to just half by 2025. He staunchly defends the use of what he calls "zero carbon" nuclear energy in coming decades, putting him at odds with fellow EU giant Germany, which swore to drop nuclear power in the wake of the Fukushima disaster.
Exclusive: Westinghouse set to sign pact with Indian firm for nuclear reactors during Trump visit - (Reuters) - U.S. energy firm Westinghouse is expected to sign a new agreement with state-run Nuclear Power Corporation of India for the supply of six nuclear reactors during U.S. President Donald Trump’s visit next week, officials said, aiming to kickstart a long-running project. The agreement will lay out timelines and the lead local constructor for the reactors to be built at Kovvada in southern India and also address lingering concerns over India’s nuclear liability law. The United States has been discussing the sale of nuclear reactors to energy-hungry India since a 2008 landmark civil nuclear energy pact and last year the two governments announced they were committed to the establishment of the six reactors. Last week representatives from U.S. energy and commerce departments, Westinghouse, the U.S.-India Strategic Partnership Forum and The Nuclear Energy Institute were in India for talks with government officials as part of a commercial mission to promote nuclear exports to India. “We are encouraging moving forward with Westinghouse and NPCIL to sign a MoU. It certainly is a private industry to private industry, a business to business decision,” Dr. Rita Baranwal assistant secretary for the Office of Nuclear Energy in the U.S. Department of Energy, told Reuters in a phone interview. “We’re optimistic that an MoU will be signed shortly,” Baranwal, who was part of the mission, said. Once that is cleared the two sides will begin contract negotiations, delivery schedules and pick vendors. The plan for a new MoU has not been previously reported.
The UAE gets green light to operate the Arab world's first nuclear power plant— The independent nuclear regulator for the United Arab Emirates on Monday issued the operating license for Unit 1 of the country’s Barakah Nuclear Power Plant, giving the go-ahead on operations for the first nuclear power plant in the Arab world. The project, which national officials describe as a strategic and economic imperative for the UAE, is more than a decade in the making and involved collaboration with external bodies including the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the government of South Korea. Once operation of the plant begins — the exact date of which has not been announced, but is expected in the coming weeks — the UAE will become the newest member of an exclusive club of currently just 30 countries running nuclear power operations. It’s also the first new country to launch a nuclear power plant in three decades, the last being China in 1990. FANR, the country’s regulator, granted the license after years of extensive reviews and inspections, its officials said. This included more than 185 inspections, reviewing 14,000 pages of the plant’s operating license application, and requesting more than 2,000 additional pieces of information concerning reactor design, safety, geography and other areas to ensure the plant’s compliance with regulatory requirements. The operating license is expected to last 60 years, and allows the UAE’s Nawah Energy Company, the Emirates Nuclear Energy Company’s (ENEC) subsidiary operating the plant, to start loading fuel and eventually move into partial and full operation of the first unit, al Kaabi told CNBC in an interview. Partial operation could take a few weeks while full operation may take a few months, he said.
Utica Shale well activity as of Feb. 15 -
- DRILLED: 157 (147 as of last week)
- DRILLING: 109 (123)
- PERMITTED: 475 (479)
- PRODUCING: 2,451 (2,443)
- TOTAL: 3,192 (3,192)
Three horizontal permits were issued during the week that ended Feb. 15, and 12 rigs were operating in the Utica Shale.
Operator says containment worked at Coitsville well site - Youngstown Vindicator— State agencies are saying there was no risk to people or the environment after a motorist reported seeing water overflowing Sunday at a well site in Coitsville. The site operator also said systems worked as intended. “Someone drove by, made up things and went to the news,” said a representative from Bobcat Energy Resources LLC. “There was no problem with the well.” The well site, on U.S. Route 422, is where brine — or salt water — is pumped. The spokesman explained that a filter pump “ran too long.” The concerned motorist also contacted the Ohio Department of Natural Resources. There was no immediate danger to the area, ODNR confirmed. “Based on conversations with the caller, company and inspector, there was no sign of an external release at Bobcat Energy Resources LLC,” a statement from ODNR said. Inspectors from the Division of Oil and Gas Resources Management followed up at the site Monday. “The site experienced an electrical failure which led to brine being released into a closed on-site containment system. The system functioned as designed, and there is no risk to any person or the environment,” the ODNR statement explains.The Ohio Environmental Protection Agency also stated that the site “worked properly,” and that the equipment “prevented a release into the environment.”
First Look: See what's going on at the potential site of the next ethane cracker - It hasn't yet gotten the final investment decision that supercharged Shell's Beaver County petrochemical plant, but work and investment is still going on at the proposed site of PTT Global Chemical America's polyethylene plant in Belmont County, Ohio.PTT, a Thailand-based petrochemical company, has been considering for the last several years a site to build a plastics plant similar to the one that Shell Chemical is building further up the Ohio River in Potter Township, Beaver County. PTT's site is the location of a former AEP coal-burning power plant in Mead Township, Ohio, across the river from Moundsville, West Virginia.A final investment decision could come sometime this year, a spokesman for PTT, Dan Williamson, told the Business Times on Thursday. The project was first announced by then-Ohio Gov. John Kasich in April 2015.The plant would take Marcellus and Utica shale gas and create ethylene, the building blocks of plastic products. PTT and Daelim Chemical, the South Korean firm that is its partner on the project, have spent about $100 million on engineering design and have received air and waterways discharge permits from the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency. PTT recently received $20 million from JobsOhio in a grant for revitalization work at the site, at which the former coal plant has long since been demolished and taken away."The JobsOhio grant provides the project with the necessary resources to continue engineering work and site preparation that must be done in the coming months," the PTT spokesman said.Bechtel Corp., the general contractor and project manager for Shell's massive construction project in Beaver County, is the engineering, procurement and construction company for the PTT project as well.This week, the Business T imes visited the region near the site and saw from afar how the site preparation has been going. It's difficult to gain an overall view of the site, either in Ohio where it's located or neighboring Moundsville, West Virginia. But here are some photos.
Congressional Democrats Join the Debate Over Plastics' Booming Future - Towers and tanks rise from the banks of the Ohio River 25 miles northwest of Pittsburgh, where Shell Polymers plans to produce 1.6 million metric tons of plastic pellets annually. To the Trump administration, the petrochemical industry and regional economic development officials, this state-of-the-art petrochemical plant offers a glimpse of the new economy for a part of Appalachia devastated when the steel industry collapsed a generation ago. Promoters of the Shell plant see it as the first among a number of new plastics manufacturers conveniently located amid thousands of fracking sites in the region's Marcellus shale, a natural gas field that produces a massive amount of ethane. The gas is used in plastics production. The sites would be tied together by an expanding network of natural gas wells, processing facilities, pipelines and a giant underground storage facility, potentially funded in part by $1.9 billion in Trump administration loan guarantees. As industry and local authorities count thousands of new jobs and millions in tax revenues, battle lines have been drawn. Scientists warn of premature deaths from air pollution. Environmentalists foresee a plastics climate bomb. And now congressional Democrats have entered the fray, proposing a three-year moratorium on all new plastics plant construction nationwide, while the National Academy of Science studies the consequences of such a build-out on health and climate change. A far-reaching bill that Democrats call the Break Free from Plastic Pollution Act, has nary a Republican sponsor. But the legislation, which would also hold plastics manufacturers responsible for cleaning up plastic waste, helps frame a raging national debate over plastics in an election year. And it could set the stage for action on plastics reform, should the Democrats defeat President Trump and win the Senate. A moratorium would hold off development of the plastics manufacturing hub in Appalachia and stall plant expansions in the nation's primary petrochemical production area along the Gulf Coast, while scientists studied the impacts in both regions. "These plants are poisoning the land, air and human beings," said Sen. Tom Udall of New Mexico, a Democrat and the bill's lead sponsor in the Senate. "It's having a dramatic impact. We have to pause any expansion." The American Chemistry Council, a chemical industry lobby group which envisions as many as five plastics manufacturing plants in Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia, countered by touting the benefits of plastics, such as making cars lighter so they use less petroleum and emit fewer greenhouse gases.
DEP Fines Landfill Near Pittsburgh for Problems Tied to Fracking Waste - The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection has fined a Westmoreland County landfill that had been passing pollution from oil and gas drilling waste into a local sewage treatment plant. The fine is part of a consent agreement with Westmoreland Sanitary Landfill to find a solution for the plant’s leachate, the liquid waste formed when rain and moisture percolates through the landfill. As part of the settlement, the landfill will pay a $24,000 fine and reduce the amount of waste it generates by closing up part of the landfill’s open area and installing an evaporator and other treatment equipment for the liquid waste. Ro Rozier, a spokeswoman for the landfill, said in an emailed statement the company was “pleased with the terms and conditions” of the agreement. Rozier said the company was “committed to investing substantial amounts of capital to purchase and install technology and equipment capable of treating and evaporating the leachate generated from the landfill on site. We are confident that our plan for onsite treatment and evaporation will resolve the landfill’s recent leachate disposal issues.”In May, a Fayette County judge ordered the landfill to stop sending its liquid waste to the Belle Vernon Municipal Authority’s sewage treatment plant, which had reported problems meeting water quality standards for its treated sewage. The sewage plant sought the injunction because the leachate it was receiving from the landfill was high in salts and radioactive materials found in drilling waste, which the landfill had been taking for several years. The landfill’s own waste reports showed the leachate it was sending the treatment plant had an “oil like” or “petroleum sheen.”StateImpact Pennsylvania reported in September a loophole in state and federal waste disposal laws allowed the landfill to send its untreated leachate to the Belle Vernon sewage plant. DEP officials told Belle Vernon’s operators to continue accepting the leachate, and stipulated that the landfill would pay any fine incurred by the sewage plant for exceeding pollution standards for its discharge into the Monongahela River. Tests showed the contaminants, including radium, were exiting the treatment plant and going into the river, a drinking water source for hundreds of thousands of people.
Chevron to trim 320 jobs in Pennsylvania --Chevron Corp. plans to eliminate 320 jobs as a result of its decision to liquidate its assets in the Appalachian Basin and ultimately close its Appalachian Mountain Business. “We are taking active steps to reduce job loss and will facilitate the placement of as many impacted employees as we can with other Chevron business units,” said a Feb. 6 letter Chevron company officials sent to state Department of Labor & Industry. The California-based energy company said it was providing significant advance notice of the layoffs to government stakeholders and employees despite the fact that most of the job cuts will not occur until later this year. An initial round is scheduled for April 6, although some employees will be offered temporary assignments with extended layoff dates, potentially through Dec. 31. Two office locations and a total of 320 workers will be affected. The office in Moon will lay off 288 employees, the company said. The Mount Braddock location in Fayette County will lay off 32 employees. Chevron controls about 890,000 acres in the Marcellus and Utica shales across Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio. The Appalachian shale operations contributed to more than half of a massive impairment charge that the company revealed for the fourth quarter. The company announced in December that the charge, which writes down the value of assets on Chevron’s books, will be between $10 billion and $11 billion.
Appalachia producers risk crackup if gas output keeps growing: Cabot CEO — The head of one of Appalachia's largest shale gas producers said the region's drillers are heading for a crackup if they keep producing more gas in the face of the current low commodity prices. "I have a hard time rationalizing why industry is growing into the market today," Cabot Oil & Gas Chairman and CEO Dan Dinges told analysts on the company's fourth-quarter 2019 earnings call Friday. "I do think ... rationalization is going to have to prevail in this market that's not sustainable, and the balance sheets are not sustainable out there." "I don't know why anybody would be drilling wells ... as a growth measure into this market," Dinges said. Cabot is dialing back its 2020 capital spending to $575 million, a 27% drop from 2019, and will be laying down one of its three rigs in March. Cabot's guidance for the first quarter calls for roughly 2.375 Bcfe/d of natural gas production, 3% less than the fourth quarter of 2019. The driller, which said it generates positive cash flows at $2/Mcf gas prices, is ready to clip its activity further if prices stay low, Dinges said. "We are at a maintenance level of capital because we don't think it is prudent to drill up all your core inventory and push it out at a losing proposition." "The company continues to analyze the outlook for the natural gas markets in 2020 and beyond, and is prepared to reduce capital spending further if market conditions warrant it," the company said in its earnings release. Cabot reported realizing $2.15/Mcf for its gas production in Q4, a 31% drop from the same period a year ago, while still generating free cash flows of $109.5 million and adjusted income of $120.8 million, or 30 cents per share, a 55% drop from Q4 2018 and just under analysts' expectations. Dinges reiterated Cabot's intention to use 50% of the free cash flow to pay dividends with some of the remaining 50% used to retire some of Cabot's debt. He steered clear of any discussion of using the extra cash to buy assets in a market where many other producers are trying to unload assets to fix their balance sheets. "To have an M&A transaction, it's just cumbersome,"
Chester County appeal denied in Mariner East 2 pipeline case - Chester County did not show that it would suffer irreparable injury if Sunoco is allowed to continue installing part of the controversial Mariner East 2 pipeline project on two county-owned properties, thus failing to prove it needs an emergency injunction against the work, a state appeals court judge has ruled.The county, in an appeal filed last month by the commissioners over work on the pipeline at the Chester County Library property and along the Chester Valley Trail, failed to meet the legal stringent requirements to win an injunction against Sunoco Pipeline, Commonwealth Court Judge Michael Wojcik said in his denial filed Tuesday.Those requirements include a likelihood of success on the merits of the appeal and proof that the county would suffer damage that it would not be able to be financially compensated for, the judge wrote. The county contended the use of the open trench method of construction by Sunoco violated terms of an easement it had granted to the pipeline company in the past.“While commissioners maintain that Sunoco’s use of the open trench method without county’s consent constitutes a trespass, the court is not persuaded this alone proves irreparable injury,” Wojcik wrote. “To the extent that the county argues that Sunoco is operating outside of the agreed upon terms of the easements, any damage to county property caused by such action is compensable.”The company had argued the method of construction had been approved by the state Public Utility Commission and the PUC had authority over the project, not the courts. The ruling means work on the pipeline at the library, begun last month, can continue. Officials with Energy Transfer Partners, Sunoco’s parent company, did not respond immediately to a request for comment.
What contamination lurks on — and under — shuttered South Philly refinery - When blasts ignited a massive fire at the Philadelphia Energy Solutions refinery last June, residents feared that the spectacular blaze contaminated the air they breathe. Now that the U.S. Bankruptcy Court has approved the sale of the refinery complex to Hilco Redevelopment Partners, which wants to replace the refinery with a mixed-use development, concerns have shifted from air quality to contamination of the ground and the water beneath the two-square-mile property. Indeed, a host of hazardous chemicals including cancer-causing benzene lurk beneath the land where crude oil was processed, stored, and shipped starting 150 years ago, according to government and corporate documents reviewed by The Inquirer. Many compounds, especially benzene, have been found to exceed levels set by the state as acceptable for nonresidential property, according to reports compiled by the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection and Evergreen Resources Group, which is handling a cleanup plan for Sunoco and has posted thousands of pages of documents online. Sunoco owned the refinery for decades until 2012, when it was sold to PES. Records reflect pollution that occurred before, during, and after the Sunoco years, though officials say there’s no way to tell exactly who is responsible for each kind of pollution over the property’s long industrial history. Sunoco, now a subsidiary of Energy Transfer LP, entered the refinery into a state program for cleanup in 2006. The cleanup plan is still being reviewed and applies only to environmental liabilities during Sunoco’s ownership. So although the full extent of the contamination is still being assessed, documents show that more than a dozen tongue-tripping chemical compounds have leaked, spilled, or otherwise found their way into the ground or aquifers in excess of state safety standards. The complex has been divided into 11 “areas of interest” for the cleanup. Portions of all 11 are contaminated.
Examining The Risks Of Radioactive Drilling Waste | West Virginia Public Broadcasting -- On this West Virginia Morning, we visit Clay County where educators are revamping the idea of home economics class to inspire resilience in student populations. We also bring you a conversation about radioactive natural gas drilling waste. Every day, thousands of trucks filled with waste from natural gas drilling take to the roads across the Ohio Valley. The waste contains radioactivity and poses threats to workers, communities and the environment. Freelance science journalist Justin Nobel spent nearly two years reporting on this topic. He interviewed hundreds of scientists, environmentalists, state regulators and industry workers, and he uncovered never-before-released early reports from the oil and gas industry that highlight the radioactivity problem and its risks to workers and the public. Energy and environment reporter Brittany Patterson spoke with Nobel via Skype about his reporting published in January in Rolling Stone titled “America’s Radioactive Secret.” We bring you an excerpt from their conversation. West Virginia Public Broadcasting reached out to the trade group, the West Virginia Oil and Natural Gas Association. In a statement, executive director Anne Blankenship said the industry is highly regulated and does not expose workers or the public to high levels of radiation. She said her association disagrees with the Rolling Stone article, calling it “purposefully misleading, biased and exaggerated.”
WV House Energy Committee passes bill to increase tax collections on out-of-state royalties — On Tuesday, members of the House Energy Committee voted to pass a bill aimed at increasing tax collections from royalties on natural resources owned by those living outside the state. House Bill 4610 would require lessees who make natural resource royalty payments for in-state property to any nonresident lessor to withhold personal income tax on their payments and send them to the state tax commissioner. The bill will be sent to the floor of the House with a recommendation that it pass, but will first be referred to the House Finance Committee. Currently, nonresidents who receive royalty payments from resources on property in the state are required to pay state income tax on their payments, but the existing system relies on nonresidents to come forward and voluntarily pay their taxes, according to House Energy counsel Robert Akers. “In the bill, the Legislature finds that West Virginia is not collecting all of these taxes from out-of-state mineral owners, because no reliable mechanism exists and a method to collect these taxes from out-of-state interests needs to be developed so that taxes are collected uniformly from both in- and out-of-state mineral owners,” he said. “The purpose of the bill is to ensure these out-of-state mineral owners file and pay their West Virginia income tax — which is due.” The bill applies to coal, oil, gas, limestone, gravel, sand, ores and rare earth elements, timber and forest products, Akers said. “It’s essentially anybody who pays severance taxes,” he said. Withholding the tax is optional for lessors who receive less than $1,000 annually in royalty payment, Akers said.
House takes tax credit route in hopes of spurring natural gas development - — The House of Delegates Finance Committee approved two bills Wednesday creating separate tax credits in hopes of boosting development in the natural gas industry in the Mountain State.The first, HB 4421, called the Natural Gas Liquids Economic Development Act, would provide a credit to businesses that store or transfer natural gas. The companies would pay their inventory and equipment property tax to the county where they are operating but would be able to receive a credit in that amount against their corporate net income and personal income taxes.Supporters, like Delegate Bill Anderson, R-Wood, said the credit would help in the efforts to attract a natural gas storage hub and an ethane cracker plant.“We have the potential but we have to begin seriously looking at getting the hub in place somewhere in this region. Otherwise, we’re going to put all of these liquids in pipelines and we’re going to Louisiana and we’re going to send them to Texas and that’s where the jobs are going to be,” The bill passed on a voice vote Wednesday morning.In the committee’s Wednesday afternoon meeting, it passed a second tax credit bill for natural gas. HB 4019, called the Downstream Natural Gas Manufacturing Investment Tax Credit Act of 2020.The bill would allow eligible taxpayers to take a credit against the portion of state income taxes that come from the taxpayer’s investment in a new or expanded downstream natural gas manufacturing facility provided it creates new jobs. It’s similar to the state’s existing Economic Opportunity Tax Credit. The credit would determined by a complicated formula that determines the percentage of new jobs created with the project. The credit will be calculated on a 10-year period. If it’s not all used it can be taken during a second 10-year period.
Mountain Valley Pipeline extension clears environmental review by FERC - Plans to extend the Mountain Valley Pipeline 75 miles into North Carolina moved forward Friday, even as the initial project remains mired in legal and regulatory challenges. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission concluded that while there would be some environmental damage caused by building the so-called MVP Southgate, it could be minimized to “less than significant levels.” An environmental impact statement released by FERC is a major step forward for the pipeline, which would originate at Mountain Valley’s terminus in Chatham, head southwest through Pittsylvania County and cross into North Carolina, extending to Alamance County near Burlington. “We look forward to safely and responsibly providing the reliable access to natural gas needed for home and business use across the region,” MVP Southgate spokesman Shawn Day said. Construction of the $468 million project is expected to start this year, Day said. Completion is targeted for 2021. In open houses and public hearings, many people spoke of widespread problems with muddy runoff from construction sites of Mountain Valley, which is seeking to regain suspended federal permits that have caused a lull in construction of the 303-mile pipeline. “Even when faced with a climate emergency, FERC continues to award new permits to polluters who cannot adhere to the erosion and sedimentation requirements of their current plans for the mainline Mountain Valley Pipeline,” Russell Chisholm, co-chair of the Protect Our Water, Heritage, Rights Coalition, said in a statement Friday.. But FERC said the same problems are not expected with the pipeline extension. “Because 2018 was an unusual year yielding record breaking precipitation amounts and given the flatter terrain where the Southgate Project would be constructed, we do not anticipate [it] would experience the same issues with erosion and sediment control,” the more than 1,000-page report stated.
FERC ruling keeps plans for Southgate pipeline on track - The 75-mile MVP Southgate Pipeline, proposed to carry shale natural gas into north central North Carolina, has no environmental issues that should prevent construction, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has ruled.The $470 million project is designed to carry gas from the much larger Mountain Valley Pipeline, which is currently stalled by court and regulatory challenges to its construction. That 430-mile pipeline is designed to carry natural gas from the Utica and Marcellus shale fields into central Virginia. The Southgate project, being built by Equitrans Midstream Corp. (has faced fewer challenges so far, although there have been some objections. FERC staff issued the Final Environmental Impact Statement for the project on Feb. 14. “We conclude that approval of the Project would result in some adverse environmental impacts, but these impacts would be reduced to less-than-significant levels through implementation of our recommendations and Mountain Valley’s proposed avoidance, minimization, and mitigation measures,” the FERC says. The pipeline still needs to get permits related to endangered species protections, natural and historic preservation and applicable air quality permits. The Southgate extension would carry gas from a compressor station in Chatham, Virginia, into North Carolina, northwest of Eden, and travel southeast to Graham. It’s slated for completion in 2021. The pipeline's primary customer will be Dominion Energy North Carolina Gas, based in Gastonia. The Atlantic Coast Pipeline, a partnership of Dominion Energy Inc. (NYSE: D) and Duke Energy Corp. (NYSE: DUK), is slated to be completed in 2022. That $8 billion project is currently stalled by court and regulatory challenges.
Key Line 5 legal challenge could wrap soon ⋆ Canadian oil company Enbridge has not yet shown that its ongoing installation of support anchors along the controversial Line 5 pipeline complies with environmental protection laws, according to a new ruling issued by Administrative Law Judge Daniel L. Pulter. The 18-page order made public last week rejected all but one of the petitioners’ legal challenges to the state-issued permits Enbridge has received to install the supports. Pulter’s decision stems from a legal challenge filed in May 2018 by the Straits of Mackinac Alliance and Grand Traverse Band of Ottawa and Chippewa Indians against the Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes and Energy (EGLE). The city of Mackinac Island joined the appeal last year, and Enbridge intervened as an interested party in the case. “We are pleased that the Administrative Law Judge agreed with EGLE in dismissing the claims raised by the Petitioners,” said EGLE spokesman Dean Scott in an email. “EGLE looks forward to addressing the sole remaining issue in the case, which was raised by the Administrative Law Judge himself at the January 28, 2020 hearing.” But the sole remaining issue is a big one for the Line 5 opposition’s environmental case against the pipeline: The question of whether EGLE adequately determined that Enbridge’s proposed method for installing the anchors minimized potential harm to the environment and Great Lakes. Enbridge maintains that the anchors, which elevate the Line 5 pipeline above the lakebed, are necessary to ensure the pipeline is properly supported. The ruling also allows legal challenges to the Line 5 project to move forward. “Most of the things our side lost on were long shots with this administrative appeal and we knew it going in,” said David Holtz, spokesman for the Oil & Water Don’t Mix coalition that opposes Line 5. “We were hoping to get a shot at proving our environmental case and that’s what we got.” .
Activists Demand National Grid Halt Project To Extend A Fracked Gas Pipeline Through North Brooklyn --A coalition of North Brooklyn residents and environmental groups are fighting to stop National Grid’s plan to extend a natural gas pipeline through Bushwick, Williamsburg and Greenpoint.The gas company broke ground on a seven mile pipeline, starting in Brownsville, back in 2018. But since last fall, several blocks in North Brooklyn have been ripped up to make way for the final two phases of the pipeline, which National Grid wants to extend to its Greenpoint depot."We don’t want this pipeline," Kevin LaCherra, of Greenpoint, told a crowd of some 60 people rallying at National Grid’s construction site Saturday morning. "We want renewables now."Residents and environmental groups, including Sane Energy Project, North Brooklyn Extinction Rebellion, Sunrise NYC, Assemblymember Joe Lentol and State Senator Julia Salazar’s office, rallied in 20-degree weather Saturday morning at National Grid’s construction site at Moore Street and Manhattan Avenue, marching along streets lined with pipelines and construction equipment equipment. Activists demanded Mayor Bill de Blasio and Governor Andrew Cuomo oppose the company’s request to the Public Service Commission for rate increases that would help pay for the last two phases of the project, which require $185 million over the next three years, according to documents the company submitted to the commission."They didn’t let Bushwick and Williamsburg and Greenpoint know this pipeline was coming until it was right at their doorsteps," Lee Zieshe, a community engagement coordinator with Sane Energy Project, told Gothamist. The project has outraged North Brooklyn residents, who have protested the pipeline—called the Metropolitan Natural Gas Reliability Project—at community meetings in recent months. Brooklyn’s Community Board 1 unanimously voted against the project last week, Brooklyn Eagle reported. "People are frustrated because it’s 2020. We need to be getting off fossil fuels and here is National Grid wanting to raise our monthly bills to invest hundreds of millions of dollars in a new fracked gas pipeline," Zieshe said. "That’s just insanity."
Group urges Murphy to veto Pinelands Commission minutes - — In the more than 40-year history of the New Jersey Pinelands Commission, only once has the state’s governor exercised his authority to veto the agency’s meeting minutes to stop an action from being finalized. The New Jersey Sierra Club wants Gov. Phil Murphy to become the second governor to veto Pinelands Commission meeting minutes in order to force the commissioners to redo their vote on a resolution to block a controversial natural gas pipeline from moving forward through the southernmost portion of the Pines. “We would rather no meeting than a bad meeting,” Sierra Club Director Jeff Tittel said in the Feb. 11 letter urging Murphy to veto the minutes of the commission’s Jan. 10 meeting. The meeting featured a vote on a resolution to place a stay on the commission’s prior approval of the South Jersey Gas pipeline through Cape May and Cumberland counties. But the resolution failed by a 4-5 vote. The resolution’s defeat was the latest development in the long history of twists, turns and lawsuits surrounding the proposed pipeline project, which is easily among the most controversial proposals to ever come before the commission, which is responsible for regulating development and land use within the million-acre Pinelands. The 22-mile gas line was proposed in part to fuel the formerly coal-powered BL England plant, which was to be converted to natural gas. But the project hit a major snag last year when BL England announced it was no longer interested in repowering the plant and would not tie into the planned gas line.
State regulators won't do more asbestos testing at Weymouth compressor site - — State regulators will not further test contaminated fill for asbestos at the construction site of a natural-gas compressor station despite the urging of local activists. Residents fighting the compressor station on the banks of the Fore River sat down with regulators last week to voice their concerns, including that the firm hired to oversee the cleanup of contamination on the site did not adequately test bricks that were dumped on the property years ago after being removed from a furnace across the street. TRC tested eight bricks found at the site and did not detect asbestos. But Michael Lang, environmental coordinator of the East Braintree Civic Association, learned that the firebrick industry stopped adding asbestos to their firebrick around 1972, meaning bricks closer to the surface likely would not have asbestos in them. Lang shared this information at the meeting last week, and Bellafiore said residents were told regulators would look into it. But Courtney Rainey, director of government affairs and municipal partnerships for the state Department of Environmental Protection, suggested in an email to legislators that more testing will not take place. “Regarding asbestos on site, through the investigation and assessments conducted to-date, asbestos has not been identified as a contaminant of concern at the site. Because some fire bricks can contain asbestos, some of the bricks were analyzed for asbestos and the results were negative,” Rainey wrote. Bellafiore on Friday said asbestos is a huge health and safety issue and something that is in everyone’s best interest to investigate further.
Ransomware Shuts Gas Compressor for Days in Latest Attack- A recent ransomware attack caused a U.S. natural gas compressor facility to shut for two days, the latest in a string of attacks targeting the country’s energy infrastructure over the past few years. Hackers sent emails with a malicious link, known as a phishing attack, to gain control of the facility’s information technology system, the Department of Homeland Security said Tuesday in an alert. The agency didn’t say which facility was targeted, when the attack occurred or who was behind it. It appears likely that the attacker explored the facility’s network to “identify critical assets” before executing the ransomware attack, according to Nathan Brubaker, a senior manager at the cybersecurity firm FireEye Inc. This tactic -- which has become increasingly popular among hackers -- makes it “possible for the attacker to disable security processes that would normally be enough to detect known ransomware indicators,” he said. The DHS alert comes amid increased concern about whether aging U.S. energy facilities are equipped to ward off cyber-attacks that could result in power failures and disruptions to oil and natural gas supply. In 2018, several pipeline companies saw their electronic systems for communicating with customers shut down after being targeted by hackers. Regulators have urged better oversight for pipeline cybersecurity, which is overseen by the Transportation Security Administration. DHS announced in 2018 that it was working with the TSA and the Department of Energy on a pipeline cybersecurity initiative. Operations at the facility have been restored, according to an official the Department of Homeland Security’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, who requested anonymity speaking about the matter. The official said the incident illustrates the risk that ransomware poses to industrial control systems. Though the hackers didn’t gain control of the gas compression facility, the operator decided to perform a controlled shutdown after being unable to read and aggregate real-time operational data from certain devices. While ransomware is usually designed to block access to a computer system until a sum of money is paid, the DHS notice didn’t specify what the hackers were demanding in the gas compressor cyber-attack. The facility’s emergency response plan didn’t specifically address the risk of cyber-attacks, DHS said.
Oil and gas firms 'have had far worse climate impact than thought' - The oil and gas industry has had a far worse impact on the climate than previously believed, according to a study indicating that human emissions of fossil methane have been underestimated by up to 40%. Although the research will add to pressure on fossil fuel companies, scientists said there was cause for hope because it showed a big extra benefit could come from tighter regulation of the industry and a faster shift towards renewable energy.Methane has a greenhouse effect that is about 80 times more potent than carbon dioxide over a 20-year period and is responsible for at least 25% of global heating, according to the UN Environment Programme. In the past two centuries, the amount of methane in the atmosphere has more than doubled, though there has long been uncertainty about whether the source was biological – from agriculture, livestock or landfills – or from fossil fuels. There were also doubts about what share of fossil methane was naturally released and what share was from industry. For a more accurate comparison, a team at the University of Rochester in the US examined levels of methane in the pre-industrial era about 300 years ago. This was achieved by analysing air from that period trapped in glaciers in Greenland. The sample – made up of about a tonne of ice – was extracted with a Blue Ice Drill, capable of producing the world’s biggest ice cores. The findings, published in Nature, suggest the share of naturally released fossil methane has been overestimated by “an order of magnitude”, which means that human activities are 25-40% more responsible for fossil methane in the atmosphere than thought. This strengthens suspicions that fossil fuel companies are not fully accounting for their impact on the climate, particularly with regard to methane – a colourless, odourless gas that many plants routinely vent into the atmosphere. An earlier study revealed methane emissions from US oil and gas plants were 60% higher than reported to the Environmental Protection Agency. Accidents are also underreported. A single blowout at a natural gas well in Ohio in 2018 discharged more methane over three weeks than the oil and gas industries of France, Norway and the Netherlands released in an entire year. Fracking also appears to have worsened the problem. Atmospheric methane had started to flatten off at the turn of the century, but rose again after a surge in fracking activity in the US and elsewhere.
Morrisey stresses importance of Atlantic Coast Pipeline ahead of oral arguments - WV MetroNews — West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, union laborers and other state officials are speaking out about the Atlantic Coast Pipeline in advance of oral arguments in a case to overturn its blocked construction. Morrisey held a press conference on Thursday at the state Capitol with dozens of workers to speak on why he thinks the U.S. Supreme Court must overturn the ruling by a circuit court of appeals. West Virginia is part of the 18-state coalition in arguing the 4th Circuit Court of Appeals in Richmond, Virginia was inaccurate in ruling the U.S. Forest Service lacked authority to grant the rights-of-way through forestland beneath federal trails. In December 2018, the court halted the development of the 605-mile natural gas pipeline that would go from West Virginia to North Carolina.. “If you set a precedent that you can’t put a pipeline, even if its buried 600 feet under federal land, you’re going to bring to halt so much economic development in our country,” Morrisey said on Thursday. Morrisey focused much of the press conference on the economic effect in communities of having the pipeline shut down. The pipeline, if it’s completed, would transport natural gas through Harrison, Lewis, Upshur, Randolph and Pocahontas counties en route to Virginia and North Carolina. Tax revenues in those counties are losing a combined $400 million a year, according to Morrisey. He said those counties depend on that to support other ventures in public safety and fighting the opioid epidemic.
Dominion still banking on end of 2021 completion of Atlantic Coast Pipeline — Dominion Energy CEO Thomas Farrell recently confirmed the company still anticipates completing construction of the Atlantic Coast Pipeline by the end of 2021, and introducing the first product into the system in 2022.“Project costs of approximately $8 billion are in line with the high end of the ‘judicial option’ range we provided about a year ago,” Farrell said recently during an earnings report conference call. Farrell also said he’s confident the U.S. Supreme Court by May or June will reverse the Fourth Circuit on a ruling regarding a U.S. Forest Service permit where the pipeline would cross the Appalachian Trail. Dominion voluntarily halted all major construction activities on the pipeline in December 2018 following a ruling from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit that denied a permit issued by the Forest Service allowing the pipeline’s route to go through two national forests and under the Appalachian Trail.And, “we continue to work with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service on a re-issued biological opinion, and are pleased that [the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission] reinitiated formal consultation [recently],” Farrell said. “We applaud the [Fish and Wildlife] Service for taking the time to consider thoroughly the feedback provided by the court during the prior judicial proceedings, and we believe an updated biological opinion will be issued during the first half of this year,” Farrell said. “Upon receipt of the updated biological opinion, we intend to notify FERC and anticipate thereafter the recommencement of construction across major portions of the pipeline,” Farrell said. As for a court decision vacating an air permit at a compressor station in Buckingham County, Virginia, “we are working on a number of solutions which we expect will resolve the issue during the second half of the year.” And meanwhile, “we can deliver a very material amount of contracted volumes to customers on our existing schedule even if permit resolution delays the in-service date of the project’s third compressor station,” Farrell said. Environmental advocates, meanwhile, have continued to call on the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to stop construction of the Atlantic Coast Pipeline project.
A pipeline runs through Southern news deserts - Columbia Journalism Review - THE PROPOSED PATH of the Atlantic Coast Pipeline snakes 600 miles through West Virginia, Virginia, and North Carolina. Construction of the 42-inch-wide natural gas pipeline was halted in December 2018; later this month, the Supreme Court will hear arguments over a key permit that it would need to start up again. If the pipeline is built, then one of its three planned compressor stations—massive facilities that help compress and transport natural gas—will be located in Northampton County, North Carolina, a swampy, rural region where the vast majority of residents are black. The county is already home to industrial hog farms, a wood-pellet plant, and large landfills—other industrial projects that have enormous effects on the surrounding land and its residents. Northampton is also one of six counties in North Carolina without a newspaper, according to a University of North Carolina report on expanding news deserts. The number of newspapers in the state has declined by 22 percent since 2004. Pipeline updates—concerning permits, protests, hearings, lawsuits, and risks—are not consistently covered in state newspapers or newspapers in neighboring counties, if they’re covered at all. All three states crossed by the Atlantic Coast Pipeline have a dearth of local newspapers, according to the UNC report. West Virginia has three counties without a newspaper; Virginia has seven. In about half of the 25 counties along the Atlantic Coast Pipeline route, print news comprises a single weekly paper; several weekly or daily papers cover more than one county. The counties along the route are some of the most rural and economically depressed parts of the US, in a region that is historically reliant on extractive fossil fuels. In North Carolina, seven of the eight counties the proposed pipeline would run through are predominantly black. These places lack consistent, informative local coverage of energy, justice, and the environment because of the declining number and resources of print news outlets, shifting the balance of news sources toward expanding corporate media monopolies. The absence leaves ample space for powerful campaigns by Duke and Dominion, the pipeline’s developers and buyers of its natural gas, as well as industry-aligned lobbyists and politicians, to shape the pipeline narrative. Another result is misinformation and confusion about the status of a massive energy project that affects tens of thousands of people, several endangered species, and a variety of fragile ecosystems. In some cases, property owners have been caught unaware of their rights or legal options when Dominion came knocking to claim eminent domain.
Hurst: Virginia not doing enough on pipelines - Sediment steadily encroaching onto private property. Road closures and traffic jams. Man-made erosion of the lush Appalachian Mountains. This has become the new normal for the residents of my district and far too many others who live in Southwest Virginia.The unfortunate truth is that this is what so many of us warned about when the Mountain Valley Pipeline Project filed for its construction permit in 2015. Now, almost five years later, following dubious arguments and deceitful reassurances from big energy and stakeholders of the MVP, the commonwealth’s environment and its citizens are more at risk to the consequences of this project than ever before.In 2018, the MVP racked up more than 300 permit violations for carelessly violating Virginia’s water quality standards, failing to repair broken equipment, allowing man-made erosion to occur, poor stormwater management, and more. These violations averaged more than one per day during construction and were unquestionably significant. The commonwealth clearly understands the crisis that these violations bring, as made evident by the Office of the Attorney General’s decision to sue the MVP alongside the Department of Environmental Quality over the high number of violations in late 2018.While I’m proud of the work the Attorney General has done to hold the Mountain Valley Pipeline accountable, Virginia is not doing nearly enough to defend our environment from the threats we face. As I stated in the Agriculture Chesapeake and Natural Resources’ Subcommittee on Natural Resources last Wednesday morning, we have not seen any substantive change of heart, change of action, change of principle, or change of practice to make sure that pipeline projects are done in a safe and reliable manner. A lack of guidelines and legislation within the commonwealth have allowed these violations to continue to occur at an unsustainable rate. The legislation I have proposed will put an end to this. House Bills 643, 644, and 646 will safeguard our citizens and environment while holding the MVP accountable for its negligent practices. These three bills, that all passed out of the Agriculture Chesapeake and Natural Resources Committee on Wednesday, work in tandem to ensure that pipeline projects under construction in the commonwealth strictly comply with safety regulations to the fullest extent of the law.
US FERC ends consideration of new oil pipeline rate system — The US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Thursday ended consideration of a potential overhaul of how oil pipelines set their rates, a decision welcomed by pipeline owners who want to keep the current indexing system that allows annual rate increases. It has been longstanding FERC policy to set a ceiling on oil pipeline rates, allowing pipelines to raise their shipping fees up to that limit and forcing shippers to bring complaints to FERC when they think the rates exceed the actual costs of service. FERC reviews the index every five years to ensure it corresponds to industry-wide oil pipeline cost changes. The commission will consider a new index later this year for the five-year period starting July 1, 2021 Oil producers and other pipeline customers had urged the commission to adopt a cost-of-service rate structure closer to those used in the electricity and natural gas pipeline sectors. FERC voted 2-1 to end the rulemaking, with Commissioner Richard Glick dissenting. Andy Black, president of the Association of Oil Pipe Lines, said the current rate indexing system protects pipeline customers and provides and incentive for pipeline companies to control their costs. Pipeline executives have said in recent fourth-quarter earnings calls that they were watching for FERC's decision on the four-year-old rulemaking. "Pipeline companies need a way to operate their businesses efficiently and with certainty, and FERC's existing approach allows us to do so,"
Judge allows South Carolina suit over offshore tests to proceed - (Reuters) - A federal judge ruled on Tuesday that some of the claims raised by South Carolina in a lawsuit against the Trump administration over seismic tests for oil and gas deposits in Atlantic waters may proceed, but dismissed four others. Coastal states and environmental groups have taken legal steps to try to block Trump administration efforts to open up the U.S. East Coast to offshore oil and gas exploration. The United States is still processing permit applications for companies to conduct seismic testing - a precursor to drilling and the subject of the lawsuit - despite shelving its plan to vastly expand offshore drilling. U.S. District Judge Richard Mark Gergel in South Carolina ruled that the state’s claim that President Donald Trump lacked the power to extend offshore oil and gas drilling to areas that had been placed off limits by his predecessor, Barack Obama, may move forward. The Trump administration had asked the judge to dismiss South Carolina’s claims in the suit. In the ruling, Gergel said the U.S. government’s motion to dismiss the claims “quite strikingly” failed to state that a federal judge in Alaska last year overturned Trump’s attempt to open the Atlantic to oil and gas leasing and that the administration shortly thereafter put its efforts to expand oil and gas exploration there on hold.
Salvage company says Coast Guard, federal official violating oil pollution laws at site of Golden Ray— The salvage company originally hired to get the Golden Ray cargo ship out of St. Simon's Sound is now claiming the Coast Guard and a federal on-scene coordinator are violating federal pollution laws. The company, DonJonSMIT, filed a claim in federal court on Thursday saying a salvage plan about to be implemented could cause an environmental disaster. The salvage plan involves cutting the ship into eight pieces and loading each one onto a barge. DonJonSMIT says that it is extremely high risk and has failed with similar shipwrecks. The claim states that despite DonJonSMIT's multiple requests for information from the Coast Guard, they refused to respond and instead unlawfully delegated its sole decision-making authority to the Golden Ray's owner. T&T Salvage, based in Texas, is in charge of salvaging the Golden Ray and its cargo of 4,200 cars, which hold oil, gas and batteries. The Altamaha Riverkeeper, which has been monitoring the environmental impact of the wreck, says T&T Salvage has said as many as 800 of those cars could end up in the water. Don Jon Smit said its plan would have been less hazardous, and cheaper, but was rejected by the ship's owner. The court claim says the Coast Guard, not the ship's owner, should have had the final say on who would do the salvage.
LNG Market Catches a Chill as Gas Prices Drop-- A plunge in prices is shaking some of the more marginal players out of the liquefied natural gas market, chilling what until recently was the hottest part of the energy industry. Major utilities from Orsted A/S in Denmark to Iberdrola SA in Spain are exiting the business. Naturgy Energy Group SA has made no secret it isn’t comfortable with the volatility of LNG and was reported as considering an exit, and Vattenfall AB of Sweden won’t even think about entering. The moves drain momentum from a push by companies in almost every corner of the energy industry to start trading LNG. Over the past decade, commodity trading houses and oil majors have joined other utilities such as RWE AG in building their trading desks and investing in new facilities to handle the fuel. “Now it is a pretty painful moment for the LNG market with such low prices,” Frank van Doorn, Vattenfall’s head of trading, said in an interview. Optimism about the industry’s prospects has crashed into economics. New export projects from Australia to the U.S. have flooded the market with new supplies at the moment that warmer weather and the coronavirus in China curbed demand. The result is brimming storage tanks in Europe and prices for the commodity testing record lows. Lower prices are putting some LNG exporters in a complicated situation where they must decide whether to shut in production or accept losses in delivering cargoes at prices that won’t cover their own costs, “In this environment we do see some curtailments already for a few certain LNG suppliers globally,” De Luca said. “This summer I wouldn’t be surprised to see more extensive maintenance planned as some operators choose to use the low price environment to plan upkeep and repairs. We are now approaching levels that some more price-sensitive U.S. LNG shippers would make losses on full costs.” Activity in the LNG industry reached its highest level in five years in 2018, with contracts signed to deliver a total of 123 billion cubic meters of the fuel, according to a report from the International Energy Agency. Much of this increase relates to the development and financing of new liquefaction projects. A record-setting capacity of more than 170 billion cubic meters of natural gas liquefaction got final investment decisions, or FID, last year. While shipments continue to set new records, gas prices around the globe have fallen, and that has gutted margins for spot LNG traders
US oil, gas rig count down 5 to 825, gas total lowest since late 2016: Enverus Total US oil and gas rig counts were down a net five last week to 825, rig data provider Enverus said Thursday, amid continued low commodity prices and producers' efficient operations and restrained capital outlays throughout domestic basins. Most of the rig reductions was seen in oil plays, where rigs fell by five to 678.There was a one-rig gain in rigs not classified as oil or gas. Rigs chasing natural gas dropped by one to 144 and fell to the lowest total since November 2016. The total US rig count is the lowest since early February 2017. "Some of the smaller basins across the US continue to drop rig counts in first-quarter 2020, but looking forward, Platts Analytics is expecting rig activity to remain relatively flat for the remainder of 2020 as oil prices hover around $50-$55/b," said Matt Andre of S&P Global Platts Analytics. The largest US basins showed little week-on-week change, as most moved up or down a rig or two. The Permian Basin of West Texas/New Mexico gained two rigs to 415, while the Eagle Ford Shale of South Texas shed two rigs leaving 80. The Williston Basin situated in North Dakota/Montana and the DJ Basin largely in Colorado each remained steady for the third consecutive week at 54 and 26 rigs, respectively. The Haynesville Shale in Northwest Louisiana/East Texas and the SCOOP/STACK plays in Oklahoma each gained a rig to 42 rigs each. The Marcellus Shale largely in Pennsylvania also gained a net rig, making a total 39. This translated to the Marcellus Dry sub-category gaining three rigs to 21, while the Marcellus Wet lost two rigs, leaving 18. The Utica Shale mostly in Ohio shed a rig for a total of 11. One reason for the drop in rigs is smaller 2020 capex, as operators have walked their capital budgets back largely by single digits. The efficiencies during the last five years of $50-ish/b oil has taught producers to do more with less and eke oil and gas out of the ground at ever-lower breakeven prices.
Natural-gas prices tally biggest one-day gain in over a year, post highest finish in a month - Natural-gas futures jumped by nearly 8% on Tuesday, with forecasts for colder weather in much of the U.S. lifting prices to their highest finish in roughly four weeks. Oil futures, meanwhile, settled flat as traders weighed worries about the coronavirus and its impact on energy demand, along with a forecast for a slowdown in U.S. shale oil output. The move for natural gas appears to be “a reaction to a much colder forecast for the western half of the country through next week, even though the key Midwest and Northeast consuming regions are forecast above average,” Marshall Steeves, energy markets analyst at IHS Markit, told MarketWatch. “Thus, the gains could prove precarious.” March natural gas climbed by 14.4 cents, or 7.8%, to settle at $1.981 per million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That was the highest finish for the front-month contract since Jan. 17 of this year, and biggest one-day percentage rise since Jan. 14, 2019, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Tuesdays’ move marked a bounce back for the commodity, which suffered a loss of 1.1% last week, and touched its lowest levels since March 2016. Despite the day’s sharp climb in natural gas, Christin Redmond, commodity analyst at Schneider Electric, said in a daily note that “technical indicators predict that it will be very difficult for [natural-gas] prices to break back above key resistance of $2.00 [per million Btus], especially as the bears still maintain control of trend.”
US working natural gas in underground storage decreases by 151 Bcf: EIA - — US natural gas in storage last week fell at a rate more than the five-year average for only the second time this year, according to data released by the US Energy Information Administration on Thursday, allowing Henry Hub futures to hang on to gains made earlier this week. Storage inventories fell by 151 Bcf to 2.343 Tcf for the week ended February 14. The pull was more than an S&P Global Platts' survey of analysts calling for a 151 Bcf withdrawal. It was less than the 163 Bcf pull reported during the corresponding week in 2019 but more than the five-year average draw of 136 Bcf, according to EIA data. It marked only the second time the draw was more than the five-year average this year. Storage volumes now stand 613 Bcf, or 35.4%, more than the year-ago level of 1.730 Tcf and 200 Bcf, or 9.3%, more than the five-year average of 2.143 Tcf. Falling temperatures, mostly in the US Midwest, bumped up residential and commercial demand for natural gas 5.2 Bcf/d week over week, increasing the Lower 48's call on storage, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics. Total demand was up 6.9 Bcf/d week over week. LNG feedgas was the only demand source to decline, with volumes falling 0.9 Bcf/d. Losses were largely attributable to reduced flows into the Sabine Pass and Cameron LNG export facilities as fog and maintenance-related activities weighed on demand. Upstream, supplies were up 1.2 Bcf/d, led by a 0.7 Bcf/d increase in onshore production volumes. Net Canadian imports were also up approximately 0.4 Bcf/d week over week. The NYMEX Henry Hub March contract added 1.2 cents to $1.967/MMBtu in the minutes of trading following the weekly storage report. Summer 2020 prices traded at $2.09/MMBtu, an increase of 7% from the lows established last week. Further out on the curve, winter 2020-21 Henry Hub prices have seen a steady increase in support, with prices up roughly 3% relative to the lows established in early February. A forecast by Platts Analytics' supply and demand model expects a 143 Bcf draw for the week ending February 21, which is 21 Bcf stronger than the five-year average. The week in progress has seen balances tighten further, with demand rising by 2.7 Bcf/d and supplies falling by 0.3 Bcf/d. Most of the demand gains were linked to a 3.2 Bcf/d increase in residential and commercial consumption.
EIA expects natural gas production and exports to continue increasing in most scenarios -- According to projections published in the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook 2020 (AEO2020), total dry natural gas production in the United States will continue to increase until 2050 in most of the AEO2020 cases, primarily to support growing U.S. exports of natural gas to global markets. The United States began exporting more natural gas than it imports on an annual basis in 2017, driven by increased liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, increased pipeline exports to Mexico, and reduced imports from Canada. In most of the AEO2020 cases, net natural gas exports continue to increase through 2050, and most of the increase is in the near term. The AEO2020 Reference case represents EIA’s best assessment of how U.S. and world energy markets will operate through 2050, assuming no significant changes in energy policy occur. Side cases show the effects of changing model assumptions: the High and Low Oil Price cases simulate international conditions that could drive crude oil prices higher or lower, and the High and Low Oil and Gas Supply cases vary production costs and resource recoverability within the United States. EIA expects dry natural gas production to total 34 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in 2019 once the final data is in. In the AEO2020 Reference case, EIA projects that U.S. dry natural gas production will reach 45 Tcf by 2050. Production growth results largely from continued development of tight and shale resources in the East, Gulf Coast, and Southwest regions, which more than offsets production declines in other regions. Dry natural gas production from these three regions accounted for 68% of total U.S. dry natural gas production in 2019 and, in the Reference case, 78% of dry natural gas production in 2050. Most of the increase in dry natural gas production is coming from natural gas formations such as the Marcellus and Utica in the East region and the Haynesville in the Gulf Coast region. A smaller but still significant portion of the growth is from natural gas production in oil formations (also known as associated gas), especially in the Permian Basin in the Southwest region. In the Reference case, both U.S. natural gas exports by pipeline and U.S. LNG exports continue to grow through 2030. LNG exports account for most of the export growth because more LNG export facilities are becoming operational and more projects are under construction. In the Reference case, EIA projects that LNG exports will almost triple, from 1.7 Tcf in 2019 to 5.8 Tcf in 2030, the equivalent of nearly 16 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d). LNG exports remain at this level through 2050 as U.S.-sourced LNG becomes less competitive in world markets and as more countries become global LNG suppliers.
Demand for liquefied natural gas set to double by 2040, according to Shell - Worldwide demand for liquefied natural gas, or LNG, rose by 12.5% to hit 359 million tons last year, according to Royal Dutch Shell’s annual LNG Outlook report. Citing forecasts, Shell said that LNG demand was expected to double by 2040 to 700 million tons, with natural gas set to play “a growing role in shaping a lower-carbon energy system.” Shell added that LNG imports in China grew by 14% last year, while Bangladesh, India and Pakistan saw imports reach 36 million tons, representing growth of 19%. “The global LNG market continued to evolve in 2019 with demand increasing for LNG and natural gas in power and non-power sectors,” Maarten Wetselaar, integrated gas and new energies director at Shell, said in a statement issued Thursday. “Record supply investments will meet people’s growing need for the most flexible and cleanest-burning fossil fuel,” he added. “While we see weak market conditions today due to record new supply coming in, two successive mild winters and the Coronavirus situation, we expect equilibrium to return, driven by a combination of continued demand growth and reduction in new supply coming on-stream until the mid-2020s.” LNG refers to natural gas that has been cooled down to turn it into a liquid. This makes it easier to both store and transport. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the “volume of the liquid is 600 times smaller than the gaseous form.” While natural gas is a fossil fuel, the EIA states that burning it for energy “results in fewer emissions of nearly all types of air pollutants and carbon dioxide (CO2) than burning coal or petroleum products to produce an equal amount of energy.” In 2019, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that “coal-to-gas switching” had saved approximately 500 million tons of CO2 since 2010.
Gas explosion shuts down facilities near Port of Corpus Christi - A natural gas line exploded Monday in Corpus Christi, temporarily halting production at nearby facilities at the Port of Corpus Christi.Corpus Christi firefighters were called to a natural gas line rupture and fire near the northbound lanes of Interstate 37 and Buddy Lawrence Drive shortly before 8:30 a.m. Monday, KRIS-TV reported. The fire was contained and normal traffic resumed about an hour later.No injuries were reported but with the fireball next to the Corpus Christi Citgo refinery, authorities closed part of I-37 and other underground pipelines in the area as a precaution. Nearby industrial facilities at the port followed suit. Although not directly affected by the fire, the Javelina Gas Processing Plant off I-37 receives natural gas from other lines in the area. The facility told the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality that those lines were shut off, prompting the plant to vent and flare thousands of pounds of butane, ethylene and other compounds.Port of Corpus Christi officials reported that the fire did not affect operations at South Texas waterway but port police assisted in securing the scene. The cause of the fire remains under investigation. Citgo officials confirmed that a pipeline owned by a third party caught fire outside the company's east refinery and was extinguished without injury."This incident does not pose any threat to the surrounding community, our employees or contractors," the company said in a statement.Read the latest oil and gas news from HoustonChronicle.com
Crude oil spill in Tabbs Bay spread to Bayland Marina in Baytown, officials say - – Oil spilled in Tabbs Bay near Baytown earlier this month has spread to Bayland Marina as the U.S. Coast Guard and other agencies continue to try and clean up the spill, officials said Tuesday. Officials said the Bayland Marina is a natural collection point for the bay, which means currents carry debris and oil residue to that location. Coast Guard officials were alert by the Texas General Land Office about the amount of emulsified oil. Officials said an oil spill response team along with other agencies are at the scene cleaning it up.Coast Guard officials said an estimated 630 gallons of oil were spilled from an out-of-service wellhead on Feb. 3, which impacted a mile of the shoreline. Officials previously said about 840 gallons of oily water were collected. READ: Nearly 840 gallons of ‘oily water’ collected from Tabbs Bay after crude oil spill over the weekend. Booms were deployed in three stages to contain the spill and prevent impact to the Houston Ship Channel and the surrounding environment.The cause of the spill is under investigation.
Decades after oil spill, Barnett Shale lake deemed safe - Nearly three decades after a large oil spill contaminated it, Bass Lake near the North Texas town of Gorman has been deemed safe for recreational use and redevelopment, the Railroad Commission said Thursday. The spring-fed lake, on the edge of the Barnett Shale about 130 miles west of Dallas, was contaminated when a pipeline ruptured in April 1990, spilling 294,000 gallons of crude oil into the Sabana River and onto surrounding land.A cleanup hampered by heavy rains recovered just 42,000 gallons of oil. City leaders in 2018 enrolled the lake and a neighboring park in the Railroad Commission’s Brownfields Response Program, which assists in cleaning conataminated lands.Railroad Commission tests of lake water, soil, sediment and groundwater revealed that compounds related to the spill were within safe levels, the agency said.
TEXAS: Trial to begin over Arkema chemical plant fire during Harvey -- Wednesday, February 19, 2020 -- Opening statements are expected to begin today or tomorrow in a trial over a 2017 explosion at Arkema Inc.'s chemical plant in suburban Houston.
UGSC finished regular gasoline price rises amid supply constraints — US Gulf Coast finished regular differential jumped 4.40 cents/gal to NYMEX April RBOB futures minus 9.25 cents/gal, amid lower availability of prompt material to send to the New York Harbor area. The finished regular gasoline to be shipped on Colonial Pipeline shipping cycle number 14 was heard traded 3 cents below cycle 13 material, since Thursday was the last day to schedule finished grade for cycle 13. "It has been a crazy week across the board," a trader said. The support likely came from the FCC outages heard along the week. "Support on prices is more due to Bayway, Chevron-Pasadena, Lyondell, Shell-Convent. I think Baton Rouge is pretty much restarted and the Citgo outage was brief," another trader said, citing recent refinery outages, which have supported higher gasoline prices. The month-long unplanned outage of the 145,000 b/d FCCU at Phillips 66's 258,000 b/d Bayway refinery in New Jersey pulled more gasoline than usual up the Colonial Pipeline into New York Harbor as Friday begins the last shipping cycle on the Colonial Pipeline for 13.5 RVP gasoline. RVP will drop to 11.5 with the next cycle, Cycle 14. On Wednesday, market sources said Shell reported a problem with a 46,000 b/d reformer at the plant over the weekend. Reformate is used to increase octane in gasoline and is necessary for transitional and summer grade gasoline, which needs lower RVP. "It is just too many refining units down," the same broker added. "It seems to be more issue with the finished grade than CBOB," a second trader said, since the US Gulf Coast CBOB differential added only 1.50 cents/gal, to be assessed at futures minus 16.50 cents/gal. Market sources said that the 502,500 b/d ExxonMobile's Baton Rouge refinery has an important production of regular finished gasoline and the run cuts after the fire could be adding support to the finished grade more than any other.
Investors Tightening the Screws on Oil, Gas Acquisitions --Owing to a collapse of oil prices at the end of 2018, M&A activity in oil and gas has almost ground to a halt after a flurry of deals last autumn. After a decade of funding the expansion of unconventional oil and gas, Wall Street investors have lost patience and want a return on their investment. Andrew Dittmar, Senior M&A Analyst at Enverus, notes, "investors who funded the shale revolution over the last decade have become vocal in advocating for pay-outs and cutting back on providing new capital. That flowed through to limited M&A and a negative reaction to deals for much of the year."[i] There are various explanations as to why mergers and acquisition activity has dramatically slowed [ii] but fundamentally they boil down to money. After more than a decade of expansion, investors see a mature industry, with slowing productivity, which should be maximising profits and generating returns rather than pursuing growth. [iii] Wall Street has become less impressed with growing output production figures and more interested in getting a return on investment. This is especially so in an environment in which prices have fallen. For example, natural gas prices fell by 50 percent in 2019 compared to 2018, with little prospect in the near term for any price improvement. In fact, this has led some companies to close natural gas wells, whilst others have paid pipeline operators to take their gas.[iv] Likewise, the collapse in the oil price to between $50 and $60 a barrel with no prospect of serious uplift means there is more focus on restraining spending, maximizing profits and generating returns. As a result, Wall Street banks have tightened the financial screws when lending to E&P companies, whether it is for new operating capital, boosting output or even mergers and acquisitions. The change in investor sentiment is perceptible in industry spending, industry bankruptcies and mixed results of recent mergers and acquisitions. Haynes and Boone recently released its Energy Bankruptcy Report which shows that number of oilpatch bankruptcies increasing from 24 in 2017, to 28 in 2018 and rising to 42 in 2019.[vi]
US shale oil production set for slow growth in February, March: EIA | S&P Global Platts — US shale oil production is set to increase only 11,000 b/d in February and 18,000 b/d in March, low growth levels not seen in over three years, the US Energy Information Administration said Tuesday, with only the Permian Basin increasing output in the months. Last month, EIA pegged February output growth at 22,000 b/d in its initial estimate before halving that figure in its revised forecast 30 days later in its Drilling Productivity Report. The last time the agency's forward growth forecast for shale oil was lower was January 2017, when the growth rate was pegged at 2,000 b/d and total shale oil output was supposed to reach 4.542 million b/d. The EIA sees total US oil production at 9.156 million b/d in February and 9.174 million b/d in March. The Permian in West Texas/New Mexico is pegged to grow in February by 42,000 b/d on month to 4.816 million b/d and increase by 39,000 b/d in March to 4.855 million b/d. For March 2020, oil output the Eagle Ford, sited in South Texas, should remain steady at 1.369 million, production in the Anadarko Basin in Oklahoma is forecast to drop by 10,000 b/d to 526,000 b/d, while production in the Niobrara Shale in Colorado should fall by 8,000 b/d. Output in the Bakken Shale of North Dakota/Montana should recede by about 2,000 b/d next month to 1.472 million, while in natural gas-prone Appalachia, oil production is predicted to be down 1,000 b/d to 145,000 b/d. EIA has forecast progressively lower growth levels in the second half of 2019, after its initial prediction of an 85,000 b/d increase for September 2019, as rig counts dropped, E&P companies exhausted their capital budgets and already-volatile oil prices inched down for a time. Since then, the agency's monthly outlook for total US output growth has dwindled each month. For example, the agency initially predicted 74,000 b/d of growth in October, 58,000 b/d for November, 49,000 b/d in December and 30,000 b/d for January. Last month, it pegged output growth at 22,000 b/d, but in the last 30 days revised that number lower for February to 11,000 b/d. The last time the agency's forward growth forecast for shale oil was that low was for January 2017, when the growth rate was pegged at 2,000 b/d and total shale oil output was supposed to reach 4.542 million b/d.
Horizontal drilling drought returns to Barnett Shale - More than five weeks have passed since any oil company has filed for a drilling permit with the Railroad Commission of Texas for a new horizontal well in the Barnett Shale, a natural gas-rich geological formation that surrounds the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex.There is still one active drilling rig in the shale play, according to the Baker Hughes Rig Count, but the region frequently goes two weeks at a time without a horizontal drilling permit being filed. A five-week horizontal drilling permit drought hit the region in April and May 2019.Although a February 2013 study by the Bureau of Economic Geology at the University of Texas at Austin estimated that the Barnett has 44 trillion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas reserves, it might have to remain in the ground for financial reasons. With natural gas trading below $2 per million British thermal units on Louisiana’s Henry Hub, drilling and hydraulic fracturing in much of the region isn’t cost-effective.Oklahoma City-based Devon Energy had long been the region’s top horizontal driller, but it cut activity before selling assets and exiting the shale play in December. Houston exploration and production company Lime Rock Resources has emerged as the region’s top horizontal driller with 21 permits filed last year. Irving oil company Pioneer Natural Resources is preparing for a heavy round of horizontal drilling in an area of the Permian Basin known as the Midland Basin. The company is seeking permission to drill 13 wells in Martin County and another two in Midland County. All of the wells target the Spraberry field at total depths ranging from about 8,400 to 11,100 feet. Oklahoma City oil company Chesapeake Energy has filed its first major batch drilling permits in Texas since a fatal accident in Burleson County. Three horizontal wells in Webb County target the Briscoe Ranch field of the Eagle Ford Shale while two more in Burleson County target the Giddings field in the same formation. There were no horizontal drilling permits filed in the East Texas shale play, but Nacogdoches-based Dual Production Partners plans to drill a vertical well in San Augustine. The well targets the oil-rich Nacogdoches field down to a vertical depth of 1,300 feet. Despite the horizontal drilling drought, Graham-based Texas Shallow Oil & Gas is preparing to drill a vertical well on its Logan lease in Young County. The well targets the Young County Regular field down to a vertical depth of 700 feet. There are several saltwater disposal wells being developed in the western end of the Permian Basin known as the Delaware Basin that will require vertical wells to be drilled. APC Water Holdings, DBM Water Services and Solaris Water Midstream plan to develop a combined 14 injection wells to support saltwater disposal in Loving County.
Texas Hill Country showdown -- A fight over building a natural gas pipeline that will cut through the scenic Texas Hill Country is heating up after a federal judge shot down a request by opponents to halt construction. U.S. District Court Judge Robert Pitman rejected a request for a temporary restraining order that would have halted Kinder Morgan's $2 billion Permian Highway Pipeline. The 430-mile natural gas pipeline is being built through the habitat of the golden-cheeked warbler, an endangered songbird, and over parts of the Edwards Aquifer, a source of drinking water to millions and home to several threatened and endangered species of salamander, fish and insects. Judge Pitman said opponents in an endangered species lawsuit failed to show a level of harm that would require a restraining order, but he ordered Kinder Morgannot to clear vegetationwithin the warbler’s range during nesting season, March 1 through July 31. Taking advantage of that two-week window between now and March 1, Kinder Morgan has already started clearing land along the route in the Hill Country. The company has vowed to stop those activities during the bird's nesting season and resume them once it is over. Although the pipeline project is only expected to disturb less than 1 percent of the warbler's habitat, Kinder Morgan has bought more than 1,300 acres of land near Austin that will be set aside for the rare songbird. But the fight is far from over. Opponents have vowed to keep fighting and the company still has to resolve the endangered species lawsuit and a separate landowners lawsuit.
Opponents of Kinder Morgan Hill Country pipeline vow to keep fighting - Opponents of a controversial natural gas pipeline through the picturesque Texas Hill Country lost a legal battle but vow to continue their fight against Houston pipeline operator Kinder Morgan. A U.S. district court judge in Austin on Friday rejected a request for a temporary restraining order that would have halted the $2 billion natural gas Permian Highway Pipeline. The pipeline is being built through the habitat of the golden-cheeked warbler, an endangered songbird, and over parts of the Edwards Aquifer, a source of drinking water to millions and home to several threatened and endangered species of salamander, fish and insects. Judge Robert Pitman said opponents failed to show a level of harm that would require a restraining order, but he ordered Kinder Morgan not to clear vegetation within the warbler’s range during nesting season, March 1through July 31. Construction has begun on the western end of the pipeline’s 430-mile route from the Permian Basin to the Katy Hub, but Kinder Morgan isn’t out of the woods in the Texas Hill Country. The request for a temporary restraining order was only part of an endangered species lawsuit filed Feb. 5 by the cities of Austin and San Marcos, Hays and Travis counties, the Barton Springs Edwards Aquifer Conservation District and four landowners. The company, its subcontractors and the project also face a federal lawsuit filed by five Hill Country landowners. The endangered species lawsuit is on a path to head to trial, said Jessica Karlsruher, executive director of the Texas Real Estate Advocacy and Defense Coalition, a nonprofit that represents landowners who oppose the project. The coalition seeks to reform Texas eminent domain laws used by Kinder Morgan and other companies to acquire land for pipelines. The group favors the model used by power line companies in which the proposed route is discussed at public hearings and finalized by a state agency. “The final routing decision should be made by public officials accountable to all the citizens of Texas,” Karlsruher said. “Kinder Morgan executives should not have the unilateral power to decide where to build an industrial highway that affects thousands of landowners and dozens of communities.”
Kinder Morgan CEO offers new guidance on Permian Pass Pipeline - Houston pipeline operator Kinder Morgan plans to build the company's third pipeline to move natural gas from the Permian Basin of West Texas to the Gulf Coast but the project may have to wait until more customers sign up. Kinder Morgan brought its Permian Basin-to-Corpus Christi Gulf Coast Express Pipeline into service in September while construction continues for its Permian Highway Pipeline, which will move gas from the West Texas shale play through the Texas Hill Country to the Katy Hub near Houston. The company's CEO Steve Kean told the Houston Chronicle that Kinder Morgan remains in talks with producers to build the Permian Pass Pipeline, a proposed project that will move 2 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day from the prolific West Texas shale play to interstate pipelines and liquefied natural gas export terminals in East Texas and Louisiana. "While we were in deep discussions mid-last year, that has cooled a bit as producers re-examine their capital commitments," Kean said. "I still think we're going to need it." Unlike the Permian Highway Pipeline, which still faces two federal lawsuits filed by opponents, the Permian Pass Pipeline will not go through the scenic and environmentally sensitive Hill Country. Instead, Kean said the Permian Pass Pipeline will be routed through an area north of Austin and south of Dallas with a termination point in East Texas.
Texas Railroad Commission Releases First-Of-Its-Kind Report On Natural Gas Flaring -As oil and gas production has ramped up in the Permian Basin, so has flaring. Flaring is the burning off of natural gas – a byproduct of oil extraction – when there isn’t room, or desire, to transport it in existing pipelines. As common as flaring is, its emissions are also damaging to the atmosphere.Now, Texas Railroad Commissioner Ryan Sitton has released a report that looks at the practice and prevalence of natural gas flaring in the Texas oil and gas industry. The Railroad Commission is the state’s energy regulator.“It’s really the first report we’ve seen from a railroad commissioner on this really controversial topic,” says Mose Buchele, energy and environment reporter for KUT Austin.Buchele says in the report, the commission measures flaring by looking at how much an oil and gas company burns natural gas compared to how much oil it produces. But he says that’s more of a measure of efficiency than of environmental impact.The oil and gas industry supports that form of measurement, but environmental groups are skeptical. They’re skeptical because the commission has the authority to regulate flaring more stringently but has not. Methane is what’s burned during flaring, and it’s a gas that contributes to climate change.“Also, it’s just vastly wasteful; everybody recognizes this. People in industry recognize this. There’s one estimate that says that enough gas is flared to power every home in Texas,” Buchele says. “It’s just a big waste of energy even putting aside the environmental impact.”Buchele says companies flare because it’s not profitable for them to transport and sell it. He also says the report doesn’t indicate whether the commission will begin to regulate flaring more aggressively.
Texas regulator calls out state's worst, best companies for natural gas flaring (Reuters) - One of Texas’ oil and gas regulators on Tuesday defended the state’s high rate of natural gas flaring, but named companies that burn off the most gas and said he would hold public meetings on the controversial practice. Flaring, or deliberately burning gas produced alongside oil, has surged with crude production in Texas, but can worsen climate change by releasing carbon dioxide. The report includes a set of flaring and venting data to be updated quarterly, the first set of such data the state has released. Ryan Sitton, one of three elected oil and gas regulators, said Texas’ flaring intensity is lower than other oil-producing areas, including North Dakota, Iran, Iraq and Russia. Its flare volumes - around 650,000 thousand cubic feet per day (Mcf/d) in 2018 - are “high for recent history” but do not surpass some years in the 1950s, according to Sitton’s report. “The state as a whole is still well below historical levels and most of the rest of the world,” Sitton said in the report. EP Energy, Endeavor Energy Resources, Surge Operating and Jagged Peak Energy had the state’s highest rates of “flaring intensity,” a measurement of flaring volume against oil production, according to the report. The companies could not be reached immediately for comment, but Jagged Peak was recently purchased by Parsley Energy, whose chief executive has criticized Jagged Peak’s high flaring rates. Companies with the lowest flaring intensity in Texas included Pioneer Natural Resources, EOG Resources, ConocoPhillips and Chesapeake Energy Corp. Oil drillers tend to flare or vent gas when they lack pipelines to move it to market, or prices are too low to make transporting it worthwhile. Venting releases unburned methane, which is many times more potent than carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas. Texas regularly allows companies to burn or vent gas in excess of regulations. It has issued more than 35,000 flaring permits since 2013 and has not denied any, according to the state commission.
Pioneer Natural CEO calls on investors to divest in companies with high flaring - (Reuters) - The chief executive of Pioneer Natural Resources, Scott Sheffield, on Thursday called on energy investors to sell shares or pull funding from companies that have rates of natural gas flaring. The practice of burning off natural gas produced alongside more profitable oil has become a top issue for investors, who are focused on sustainability measures and already are frustrated by a decade of poor financial returns in oil and gas. Flaring has surged with U.S. oil output, but can worsen climate change by releasing carbon dioxide. If producers in the Permian Basin, the top U.S. shale field, cannot drop flaring rates below 2% of gas produced by the first half of next year, when new pipelines would have come online, Sheffield asked investors in public shares, bonds or private equity firms to “end up either not doing business or sell whatever you have in regard to that company.” The idea, Sheffield said during an earnings call, came out of a late January workshop in Austin, Texas, coordinated between Columbia University and the University of Texas at Austin, which brought together producers, pipeline companies, policymakers, non-governmental organizations, academics and analysts to talk about Permian Basin flaring. The workshop was invitation-only, but Columbia plans to release a report on it.
An unexpected side effect of fracking: Chlamydia – To the consternation of fracking fans everywhere, researchers at the Yale School of Public Health this weekend confirmed a correlation reported two years earlier between intense fracking activity and a local increase in certain sexually transmitted diseases. The first study had been in Ohio; the new one was in Texas.Other side effects of fracking include earthquakes, methane emissions, groundwater contamination, sundry pollution,hydrocarbon spills and health risks, but the risks to health usually cited are silicosis and congenital heart defects, not STDs. Yet here we are.In relevant Texas counties, the researchers found heightened rates of chlamydia and gonorrhea, but for some reason not syphilis, reports senior author Nicole Deziel of the Yale School of Public Health, writing with Joshua Warren and Elise Elliott of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health in the journal Sexually Transmitted Diseases.Rates of gonorrhea and chlamydia rose 15 percent and 10 percent, respectively, in fracking-intense Texan counties compared to Texan counties without any fracking, they found.“The lack of an association between shale drilling activity and rates of syphilis may be because this STI occurs most commonly in men who have sex with men, which compose only a small proportion of the male population, making it difficult to study,” writes the team. They don’t mention herpes. (The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention also says syphilis is more common among men.) Why might rates of gonorrhea and chlamydia in Texas fracking fields be higher? Because fracking is a labor-intense industry that often involves “importing” specialized workers, the scientists explain. Who are these mobile workers? Young men living in temporary camps with limited connections to the community, who seek company as young men do, the authors elaborate. There was no information on condom use rates among these migratory males.
Sheridan Production, Extraction Oil and Gas Reveal Layoffs - Houston-based Sheridan Production Co. will lay off 116 employees effective March 31, 2020, according to a notice sent to the Oklahoma Office of Workforce Development. No further information surrounding the layoffs was provided in the notice. Sheridan was established in 2006 by industry veteran Lisa Stewart, who partnered with the private equity investment firm Warburg Pincus to implement the Sheridan investment strategy. During her oil and gas career Stewart held several leadership roles at El Paso and prior to that she spent 20 years at Apache Corp. On Sept. 15, 2019, Sheridan Holding Company II, LLC and eight affiliated debtors filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The plan of reorganization was approved and became effective on Jan. 17, 2020. Separately, Denver’s Extraction Oil & Gas Inc. reported plans to lay off 20 percent of its workforce, which equates to approximately 60 workers from its headquarters and field operations in the D-J Basin, according to the Denver Business Journal. “We reorganized our workforce into a more streamlined structure that better matches our operational footprint here in Colorado,” Brian Cain, company spokesman told the Denver Business Journal. “Unfortunately, this resulted in difficult but necessary organizational changes … This was a difficult decision and one we did not take lightly.” Extraction Oil & Gas Inc. is an independent energy exploration and development company focused on exploring, developing and producing oil, gas and NGLs primarily in the Wattenberg Field in the D-J Basin of Colorado. These companies’ layoffs are the latest in a string over the past year for the oil and gas industry. A few of the latest announcements include:
EIA revises global liquid fuels demand growth down because of the coronavirus - In the February 2020 update of its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that global liquid fuels demand will average 101.7 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2020, 1.0 million b/d more than the 2019 average but 378,000 b/d less than was forecast in the January 2020 edition of the STEO. The change in the forecast is driven by a combination of lower-than-expected heating fuel consumption caused by the Northern Hemisphere’s warmer-than-expected winter, an expected slowing of economic growth in general, and the particular economic effects of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. EIA estimates that COVID-19 will reduce China’s total petroleum and liquid fuels demand by an average of 190,000 b/d in 2020. This forecast is based on estimates of three components:
- The reduction in demand for petroleum and liquid fuels caused by the general decline in Chinese economic activity as measured by gross domestic product (GDP)
- The volume of foregone jet fuel consumption in China caused by flight cancellations
- The additional impact on China’s demand for other transportation fuels
As with any forecast, EIA’s estimates contain a number of uncertainties and limitations. Notably, this forecast is particularly sensitive to the duration of the demand disruption caused by COVID-19. EIA assumes that the timing of COVID-19’s impact on petroleum demand will follow a similar path as the 2003 SARS coronavirus outbreak: demand reductions will intensify in February, peak in March, and steadily decline during April, May, and June. GDP-induced impacts will linger through December. However, the 2003 SARS coronavirus and COVID-19 have different rates of transmission, detection, and mortality. Consequently, EIA considered the example of the 2003 SARS coronavirus outbreak when estimating duration and peak of the demand impacts, but it did not consider it when estimating the levels of petroleum demand reductions. A more detailed discussion of how EIA estimated the demand revisions appeared in the February 11 This Week in Petroleum.
Permian and Bakken Refiner Wants to Be Change Agent - The developer of two grassroots U.S. oil refineries reported late last week that it has formally completed and adopted a stringent program for identifying, evaluating and managing environmental and social risks tied to the projects. Meridian Energy Group, Inc., which plans to build new refineries in the Bakken Shale formation and the Permian Basin, stated that its new Environmental and Social Management Plan (ESMP) aligns with the Equator Principles – a risk management framework embraced by 101 financial institutions in 38 countries. “Meridian took this approach from day one, not because of government dictates or to fulfill the terms of government subsidies or funding, but because it is what its founders and management team chose to do,” Meridian CEO William Prentice told Rigzone. “These professionals wanted to create a firm that would be a profitable agent of change in cleaning up one of the most archaic and dirty segments of the energy industry.”Prentice described ESMP as a “common baseline and framework” for employees and company partners – such as contractors – to navigate potential or actual environmental and social risks and impacts during project development and operations. Meridian’s two refinery projects include the Davis Refinery in Belfield, N.D., and a similar facility in Winkler County, Texas, near the city of Kermit. The company has stated the 49,500-barrel per day (bpd) North Dakota project and the 60,000-bpd Texas project will each qualify as a “Synthetic Minor Source” from an emissions perspective. As this March 2019 Rigzone article notes, the designation applies to benzene and sulfur removal in gasoline production, flare stack output and volatile organic compound releases. The company contends that its flagship Davis Refinery will produce one-tenth of the air emissions and less than one-half the total greenhouse gas emissions compared to the U.S. refinery industry average.
South Dakota House passes Gov. Kristi Noem's riot boosting bill, sends it to the Senate - The South Dakota Senate will take up Gov. Kristi Noem's riot boosting bill after the House passed it on Tuesday. The House passed House Bill 1117 in a 45-25 in a vote on Tuesday. Rep. Jon Hansen, R-Dell Rapids, questioned if violence should be legal under South Dakota law. The bill holds people who riot accountable, he said. Ahead of the House's vote on Tuesday afternoon, about 20 tribal members protested the bill in the Capitol rotunda, which is next to Noem's office. They walked in a circle, yelling, "Gov. Noem, we are not a riot," and carrying signs stating, "Our voices will not be silenced." The protest lasted about three minutes before Highway Patrol told them to leave the building because they didn't have a permit to be there. They stood in the House gallery as they watched the debate and vote on the House floor. After the House's vote, a woman began yelling at the House members about the bill and said she was expressing her freedom of speech as she was removed from the gallery. Noem's 2020 riot boosting bill will repeal the sections of her 2019 riot boosting law that the federal court struck down as unconstitutional in September, replace the definition of "incitement to riot" with one that meets the constitutional restrictions on free speech and updates the civil penalties to follow the proposed bill's "incitement to riot" language. The House's debate on the bill was split along party lines, with Republicans arguing the bill protects the First Amendment right to peacefully protest and Democrats arguing that it'll land the state in court again because it chills free speech. Rep. Manny Steele, R-Sioux Falls, said the bill doesn't contain anything about peaceful protest, which is everyone's right to do.
North Dakota regulators OK expansion of Dakota Access Pipeline -- North Dakota regulators on Wednesday green-lighted the proposed expansion of the Dakota Access Pipeline, which involves building a pump station in Emmons County to help push up to twice as much oil through the line every day. Energy Transfer plans to begin construction on the facility this spring following the PSC’s unanimous decision to grant the company an amended permit for the project. The company said it’s “pleased” with the vote, and added in a statement that the decision “brings us another step closer to being able to optimize the existing pipeline to safely transport up to 1.1 million barrels of crude oil per day, to more efficiently accommodate the increasing market demand for Bakken crude oil.” The PSC’s approval could be challenged in court by the Standing Rock Sioux Tribe, which still seeks to shut the pipeline down through a federal lawsuit it filed over the project when it was under construction in 2016. The tribe also intervened in the expansion case before the PSC. Standing Rock Chairman Mike Faith said he wasn’t surprised by the vote but was “very disappointed to hear today’s outcome.” The tribe is examining its options for legal recourse, he said. Energy Transfer still seeks approvals from regulators in Iowa and Illinois to complete its expansion plans, which include putting in a total of three pump stations along the 1,200-mile line and making upgrades to boost the horsepower of other pumping facilities. With its planned capacity increase, the pipeline would have the ability to take three-quarters of all oil produced in North Dakota to market, transporting it closer to refineries in other states or toward ships that would carry it overseas.
Standing Rock Sioux Tribe: “The PSC failed to do its job” by approving Dakota Access pipeline expansion Texas-based Energy Transfer has received the approval they were seeking to build a $40 million pump station near Linton, a station they say is necessary to increase the volume of oil the Dakota Access Pipeline can move. “After one of the most extensive public hearings in commission history, to me it’s clear that this pipeline optimization project meets all of North Dakota’s sighting criteria, and is in the best interest of our citizens, and will move an enormous amount of oil and it will move it more safely and more efficiently,” said Commissioner Randy Christmann. The Standing Rock Sioux Tribe had been fighting the plan for months, saying it would increase the probability of a disastrous oil spill. Tim Purdon is the Tribe’s Attorney. “The tribe throughout this process identified specific documents and safety information that would help the commission make its decision, the commission chose not to get those documents, the people downstream from the pipeline in Emmons County and at Standing Rock Reservation, I think they expected due diligence here and I don’t think they got it,” said Purdon In court documents, Energy Transfer said the pump station would produce only “minimal adverse effects on the environment and the citizens of North Dakota.” Allyson Two Bears, the Standing Rock Director of Environmental Regulations says they now need to be ready for anything. “We’re gonna do our best to be prepared for this, and hope that we can get some cooperation with this company eventually to be able to let us sit at the table and let us participate in some of these exercises because now were facing the doubling, were facing twice the risk and now need to be prepared,”
Agency: North Dakota oil production drops 3% in December (AP) — North Dakota regulators say oil production in December was down about 3% from November. The Department of Mineral Resources says the state produced an average of 1.47 million barrels of oil daily in December. That’s down from 1.51 million barrels from the prior month. North Dakota also produced about 94.8 billion cubic feet of natural gas in December, up from 94 billion cubic feet in November. Statewide, companies flared 16% of all gas produced in December, above the 12% target. There were 15,979 wells were producing in December, down from a record 16,110 in November. The December tallies are the latest figures available.
2 Million Pounds of Radioactive Fracking Waste Illegally Dumped in Oregon Landfill - A chemical waste landfill in Oregon has been accepting millions of pounds of radioactive fracking waste from North Dakota, violating Oregon environmental regulations. According to the Bend Bulletin, Oregon Department of Energy officials recently issued a “notice of violation” to Chemical Waste Management’s landfill near the small town of Arlington for accepting a total of 2 million pounds of Bakken oil field waste that was delivered by rail in 2016, 2017, and 2019. Some of the waste, when tested, registered radium at 300 times the Oregon state limit. Even with the violations, the landfill won’t be fined because, according to Magic Valley, state officials believe operators misunderstood state guidelines. Environmental advocates plan to pressure state leaders to determine how Oregon became “a fracking dumping ground,” as some are calling it. Chemical Waste Management has not accepted another load of Bakken oil field runoff since September 2019. The landfill owners and managers must now create a risk assessment and action plan to address the dumping violation.
US panel delays vote on Oregon pipeline amid process issues (AP) — A U.S. regulatory agency on Thursday delayed a vote on a proposed natural gas pipeline and marine export terminal in Oregon, with one member saying greenhouse gas emissions and endangered species should be considered and blasting the decision-making process as “rotten.” The issues bluntly raised at the meeting of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission in Washington came on top of objections to the mega-project by Oregon’s Department of Land Conservation and Development. In a letter released late Wednesday, the department said the Jordan Cove Energy Project would harm the environment and had failed to obtain necessary permits and to provide information requested by the department. “Coastal effects analyses show that the project will negatively impact Oregon’s coastal scenic and aesthetic resources, a variety of endangered and threatened species, critical habitat and ecosystem services, fisheries resources, commercial and recreational fishing and boating, and commercial shipping and transportation, among other sectors,” the department said in the letter to a Jordan Cove official. The proposed natural gas terminal and 230-mile (370-kilometer) pipeline would permit shipment of natural gas from the United States and Canada to Asia and would be the West Coast’s first liquefied natural gas export terminal. The Trump administration supports energy export projects and in particular Jordan Cove, a project of Pembina, a Canadian company. It has proposed streamlining approval of gas pipelines and other energy projects by limiting states’ certification authorities under the U.S. Clean Water Act. The three members of the federal commission were all appointed by President Donald Trump. U.S. Sen. Ron Wyden, an Oregon Democrat, urged Trump last month to appoint a full and bipartisan five-member commission before a ruling is made on Jordan Cove. Otherwise, a decision could be interpreted as politically motivated, he said. While the commission delayed the issue Thursday, member Bernard McNamee said he was giving it an initial “nay” until he could study Wednesday’s decision by the Oregon agency. Commissioner Richard Glick had harsh words for the way the panel operates, saying it ignores environmental impacts. “We really don’t consider or include those environmental impacts in our decision-making process,” Glick said at the meeting. “Something’s really rotten with that.”
Legal action threatened to stop construction of Keystone XL- Conservation and environmental groups filed notices today of their intent to sue the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Bureau of Land Management and the companies behind the Keystone XL pipeline for failing to consider the effects of the pipeline—including likely oil spills--on endangered species, including whooping cranes and pallid sturgeon. Previously the U.S. District Court in Montana ruled that the Trump administration violated bedrock environmental laws when officials approved a federal permit for the pipeline, including by failing to adequately address the risks of oil spills on listed species. “The Trump administration continues to ignore the catastrophic impacts of Keystone XL as it attempts to ram this dirty fossil fuel project down America’s throat,” said Eric Glitzenstein, the Center for Biological Diversity’s litigation director. “History shows that oil spills are going to occur, and yet the agencies failed once again to analyze how spills might harm waterways and, subsequently, people and endangered species.” Despite admitting that multiple oil spills are likely to occur – both large and small – the agencies argue that such events will be infrequent and will have minimal impact on the environment. Yet spills have been anything but infrequent since President Trump in 2017 cleared the way for the pipeline to be built. That year, a spill from the Keystone I pipeline leaked more than 407,000 gallons of crude oil in South Dakota, and a spill in October 2019 leaked 383,000 gallons of crude. Notice has also been provided to TC Energy, which recently stated its intention to commence construction activities in April. Without a proper analysis and mitigation under the Endangered Species Act, however, such construction would clearly be unlawful and result in severe harm to endangered species, including not just the crane and sturgeon, but also the American burying beetle, whose habitat falls squarely within the footprint of the project. TC Energy claims it is working on a habitat conservation plan that would mitigate impacts to at least the beetle, but this is far from complete and has not been exposed to any expert and public review. The law flatly prohibits construction in the absence of such review and a finalized conservation plan.
Protesters in Kahnawake will remain in place until Wet’suwet’en hereditary chiefs are satisfied -- Protesters in Kahnawake remain on the Candiac line train tracks in support of the Wet'suwet'en hereditary chiefs opposed to a Coastal GasLink natural gas pipeline in northern BC. Kahnawake's traditional government – the Mohawk Nation at Kahnawake – issued two news releases this week in support of the blockades. The nation is part of the broader Haudenosaunee (Iroquois) Confederacy and secretary Kenneth Deer spoke to CTV News about the nation's reason for supporting the hereditary chiefs in BC. "They are traditional people like ourselves," he said. "We've been here since time immemorial. We have our own political system, a clan system, we have a constitution that pre-dates European contact, and these kinds of political systems have been subject to repression by the Canadian government and replaced by the Indian Act and elected councils." Coastal GasLink has promoted the fact that it has signed agreements with the elected leadership of 20 First Nations along the pipeline's route, but Deer and other traditional leaders are not part of the elected council system. Kahnawake's elected council - the Mohawk Council of Kahnawake - also stated its support of the Wet'suwet'en protests and condemned the RCMP's use of force against the protesters. Deer and others have drawn parallels between the current protests and those in the summer of 1990 when Kahnawake joined Kanesatake to protest the municipality of Oka's plans to expand a golf course on traditional Mohawk land. Then, protesters from both communities blocked several roads and the Mercier Bridge. Now, according to Deer, it is time to return the favour."When we were surrounded by the police and the army, all those Indigenous people across Canada supported us, so when they ask for help, we have to reciprocate," said Deer. "We have to do what they did for us 30 years ago." Canadian Indigenous Services Minister Marc Miller said "modest progress" was made with the protesters in the Mohawk community of Tyendinaga, who have halted train service across much of Eastern Canada. Outgoing Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer criticized the protesters Friday. "These protesters, these activists, may have the luxury of spending days at a time at a blockade, but they need to check their privilege, they need to check their privilege and let people whose job depends on the railway system – small business, farmers – do their job," said Scheer. The confederacy responded to Scheer in a news release condemning his statements, and Deer warned about using the "rule of law" argument against the protesters.
Canada fracking pipeline faces fierce defiance - The Canadian government is ramping up attacks on indigenous First Nation land in an effort to support fossil fuel interests. Wet’suwet’en activists have fought for years to stop the Coastal GasLink firm building a mammoth fracked gas pipeline through their territory. On Thursday last week police enforced a Coastal GasLink injunction, removed people from the Unist’ot’en protest camp, and arrested Wet’suwet’en members. “Indigineous people see what’s happening to us and see what’s happening to our territory and our pristine waters—and to our people on the ground, having semi-automatic weapons aimed at us,” said Wet’suwet’en spokesperson Molly Whickham. The attack has been met with a surge of resistance throughout Canada. For more than a week, activists mounted blockades over a key railway line in an effort to defend First Nation land from the Canadian government. On Monday thousands of protesters shut down central Toronto, and other large protests took place throughout Canada. Protesters have organised resistance in cities for months, many blocking roads and occupying government offices. “This is far from over,” said Whickham. “We’ve had day after day of invasion and we’re still here. We’re still not giving up.”
Canadian police had 'no authority' to search pipeline activists, says watchdog - Canadian federal police had “no legal authority” to make ID checks and searches on activists seeking to block a pipeline project on Indigenous territory, according to newly released correspondence from the force’s oversight body. The nine-page letter written by Michelaine Lahaie, chair of the Civilian Review and Complaints Commission for the RCMP, offers scathing criticism of the police’s continued use of tactics against Indigenous people which she had previously warned against. The document was released as Justin Trudeau’s government struggles to deal with a growing protest movement in support of the Wet’suwet’en nation’s fight against a controversial natural gas pipeline in British Columbia. In recent weeks, demonstrations have sprung up across the country, blockading major railway lines and obstructing access to ports and government buildings. On Thursday, Canada’s largest rail operator, CN Rail, obtained a court injunction giving it permission to remove a blockade in St-Lambert, a suburb of Montreal. Quebec’s premier, François Legault, promised swift police-backed action to remove the protest, which since Wednesday has prevented trains from traveling between Montreal and eastern Canada, as well as the US. Separately, Canada’s public safety minister Bill Blair said that the RCMP in British Columbia had agreed to leave the Wet’suwet’en territory. But Molly Wickham, the spokeswoman for the Gidimt’en clan in the Wet’suwet’en Nation, said that the RCMP had not yet vacated their territory. Speaking to reporters, Wickham said Blair’s comments were part of a “media strategy” to defuse the coast-to-coast protest movement along the nation’s rail lines that has led to major economic losses and layoffs. Earlier this month, the RCMP enforced a court injunction allowing them access, but their tactics have ignited broad criticism, and in January the BC Civil Liberties Association, the Wet’suwet’en hereditary chiefs and the Union of BC Indian Chiefs filed a joint complaint to the CCRC.
More than 60 shipping vessels stalled off B.C. coast due to rail blockades - At least 66 shipping vessels are stalled in British Columbia's waters, according to the maritime shipping industry, as rail blockades continue in support of the Wet'suwet'en hereditary chiefs' opposition to the Coastal GasLink pipeline in northern B.C. Robert Lewis-Manning, president of the Chamber of Shipping of B.C., says Canadians will eventually notice consequences from the backlog. "It will hit in the pocket book, it will hit in necessary supplies for key industries and it will take a long time to recover," he said. The vessels move commodities like consumer goods, food and raw materials between Canada and international destinations. The Chamber of Shipping, along with the B.C. Maritime Employers Association and the B.C. Marine Terminal Operators Association, issued a joint statement Friday calling on the province and federal government to de-escalate tensions and remove blockades. The organizations say the blockades are creating unsafe work environments for their members and impeding the movement of goods. Lewis-Manning says there are 48 vessels anchored in Vancouver and 18 in Prince Rupert waiting to get into those ports to either unload or pick up goods. "Those line-ups are only going to increase, of course ships are continuing to arrive," he said. "Eventually there will be no space and they'll be waiting off the coast of Canada, which is a situation we'd like to avoid." A rail blockade near Belleville, Ont., continued into its ninth day on Friday, which has resulted in CN and Via Rail stoppages.
Train derails in northwestern Ontario near Emo and is leaking crude oil - A train has derailed near a northwestern Ontario town and several of the railcars are leaking crude oil. CN Rail confirmed the derailment Wednesday morning and said Highway 602 had been blocked. The derailment happened at about 8:30 p.m. EST Tuesday. Emo is 136 km southeast of Kenora, near the Canada-U.S. border. “At this time local emergency responders and provincial authorities are on-site and CN crews are responding,” said CN.“Preliminary reports indicate that there are approximately 30 railcars derailed in various positions and there are several railcars leaking crude oil. Preliminary reports are that no product has entered a waterway. “There is no fire and no injuries are reported. As a precaution, local responders have evacuated residents near the site. The cause of the incident is under investigation.”
Oil spill estimate in Saskatchewan derailment increases to 1.6 million litres — An estimate of oil spilled in a fiery train derailment in rural Saskatchewan has increased to 1.6 million litres. Saskatchewan’s Ministry of Environment said Thursday that new figures from Canadian Pacific show the spill was more than the 1.2 million of litres initially calculated. The ministry said a significant amount of crude was burned off during the fire, and CP estimates 1.2 million litres of oil has so far been recovered. The freight train jumped the tracks on Feb. 6 near Guernsey, about 115 kilometres southeast of Saskatoon. It was the second train to go off the same stretch of tracks since December, when a derailment caused a fire and spilled 1.5 million litres of oil. After the latest derailment, the federal government ordered lower speed limits for trains carrying large amounts of dangerous goods. Both derailment’s are under investigation by the Transportation Safety Board. A preliminary report said the trains were handled according to regulatory requirements and no mechanical defects were found. The agency said it would examine the track infrastructure and as well as take a closer look at the tank cars involved. CP said it’s working with the government on a remediation plan and crews are still on site to ensure equipment is removed and the area is restored. The government said results are pending from an assessment of the latest derailment site to see if any groundwater was impacted. It expects remediation work to take several months.Pipeline Protestors Are Still Blocking Railways in Canada, Paralyzing the Nation's Rail System Tensions are continuing to rise in Canada over a controversial pipeline project as protesters enter their 12th day blockading railways, demonstrating on streets and highways, and paralyzing the nation's rail systemThe arrest of dozens of people, including some Wet'suwet'en Nation leaders, earlier this month for blockading railways in protest of the $4.6 billion TransCanada Coastal GasLink pipeline sparked sympathy protests across the country. The protests bring up longstanding questions over Indigenous land rights in the region, illustrated by the years-long fight by the Wet'suwet'en against the pipeline, which some members of the tribe say is being illegally built on their territory. Two Canadian railways said they would temporarily lay off hundreds of employees as travel and trade stalls, and the crisis represents a major challenge for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. For a deeper dive, see LA Times, Washington Post, The Guardian, CBC, BBC, WSJ, Michael Taube op-ed
House Democrats urge banks to not fund drilling in Arctic refuge -Dozens of House Democrats are urging several major banks not to fund oil drilling and development in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), following a similar push by Senate Democrats. A group of 33 Democratic lawmakers signed a letter spearheaded by Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) urging the CEOs of JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley to stop funding such drilling in the refuge. The letter was sent Thursday and follows an announcement from Goldman Sachs that it would prohibit financing for new drilling or oil exploration in the Arctic, including in the refuge. "Roads, pipelines, gravel mines, airstrips, and other facilities that would be developed to support exploration and development on the coastal plain would fragment habitat, displace wildlife, and undermine the wilderness character of the Refuge. Millions of gallons of fresh water needed to support drilling activities could be drained from fragile Arctic rivers. And oil spills, which already occur on the North Slope, would harm fish and wildlife," the lawmakers wrote. "Any development in the coastal plain would permanently destroy this critically important intact ecosystem. We urge you to take a leadership role in recognizing that investing in a project that would threaten human rights and worsen the climate crisis is an expensive risk that’s not worth taking," they added. Senate Democrats last month similarly urged banks to not finance drilling in the refuge. In response to that past letter, a Wells Fargo spokesperson told The Hill that the company does not directly finance oil and gas projects in the Arctic region, but may extend credit to companies operating there. A group of Republican lawmakers from Alaska recently sent their own letter to the banks criticizing Senate Democrats for their letter, calling them "willfully ignorant of the reasonable program we enacted to guide safe production" in the Arctic refuge. “We are not interested in telling you how to run your business or encouraging you to avoid vital investments in America,” they wrote.
Canada expected to support heavy fuel ban in Arctic despite costs to northerners -- The federal government is expected to support international measures that would reduce the environmental impact of Arctic shipping but would cost northern families hundreds of dollars a year. On Monday, the International Maritime Organization is to begin considering how to eliminate the use of heavy fuel oil in ships sailing Arctic waters. Arctic countries have already agreed to the move in principle, but the meeting is to set terms for the fuel’s phaseout. Heavy fuel oil, or HFO, is considered a major spill risk and a source of black carbon, which hastens the melting of sea ice. “HFO constitutes the bottom of the barrel when it comes to shipping fuel,” said Dan Hubbell of the Ocean Conservancy. “It’s cheap, it’s dirty and it’s very persistent.” Hubbell said a moderate spill in Russia in 2003 had big impacts still visible more than a decade later on marine mammals. The fuel is already banned in the Antarctic. But replacement fuels are more expensive. Transport Canada has analyzed what higher costs would mean for Arctic communities, which depend on supplies ranging from dry goods to construction materials that arrive by sea. It concluded the average Nunavut household would see an increase of up to $649 a year. Sealifts used by families to bring in bulk supplies of non-perishable commodities from the south would cost an extra $1,000 for a six-metre shipping container. More than half of Eastern Arctic households are already considered severely food insecure, meaning they can’t always count on having enough food for their next meal. Transport Canada says higher fuel prices will also affect mining companies and governments. “A ban on HFO in the Arctic resulting in higher shipping costs passed on to the consumer would have a significant impact on households and communities,” the report says. “This could include direct and indirect effects on the health and quality of life of Indigenous and Inuit peoples living in the Arctic.” Six out of eight Arctic countries currently support the ban. Russia is opposed and Canada has said it won’t announce its position until the meeting begins. But in a telephone call with stakeholders last week, officials said Canada will side with the majority. “They did confirm that they would be supporting the ban,” said Andrew Dumbrille of the World Wildlife Fund, who was on the call. “Everybody else heard that too. It was pretty clear that’s the Canadian position.” Neither the Nunavut government nor Nunavut Tunngavik, which oversees the Nunavut land claim, was available for comment.
US Set on Thwarting $6B Russia-Germany Gas Pipeline-- President Donald Trump’s top energy official said he’s confident that Russia won’t be able to complete the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea -- and signaled that the U.S. will press forward with its opposition to the project. Asked about Russian efforts to circumvent U.S. sanctions on the pipeline by completing it on its own, U.S. Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette said “they can’t” -- and dismissed claims that project owner Gazprom PJSC will face only a short delay. “It’s going to be a very long delay, because Russia doesn’t have the technology,” Brouillette said in an interview at the Munich Security Conference on Saturday. “If they develop it, we’ll see what they do. But I don’t think it’s as easy as saying, well, we’re almost there, we’re just going to finish it.” The pipeline, which would pump as much as 55 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually from fields in Siberia directly to Germany, has become a focus for geopolitical tensions across the Atlantic. Trump has assailed Germany for giving “billions” to Russia for gas while it benefits from U.S. protection. Nord Stream 2’s owners had invested 5.8 billion euros ($6.3 billion) in the project by May 2019, according to company documents. U.S. sanctions in December forced Switzerland’s Allseas Group SA, which was laying the sub-sea pipes, to abandon work, throwing the project into disarray. The U.S. has said Europe should cut its reliance on Russia for gas and instead buy cargoes of the fuel in its liquid form from the U.S. “It’s distressing to Americans that, you know, Germany in particular and others in Europe would rely upon the Russians to such a great degree,” Brouillette said, adding that he is unaware of additional sanctions should Russia move to defy the U.S. Even as he spoke, signs emerged that Gazprom’s attempts at completion may be underway. A Russian pipe-laying vessel, the Akademik Cherskiy, left the port where it had been stationed in Nakhodka on Russia’s Pacific coast last Sunday. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak last year mentioned that vessel as an option to complete the pipeline in Denmark’s waters. The vessel is now expected to arrive in Singapore on Feb. 22, according to ship-tracking data on Bloomberg. While Gazprom has said it’s looking at options to complete the pipeline, it hasn’t given any details on where it will find the ship to do the work. One of the pipeline’s financial backers, Austrian gas and oil company OMV AG, has predicted that the Russians will follow through.
US Says Latest Sanctions Have Finally Thwarted Russia-Germany NS2 Gas Pipeline -The Trump administrated is claiming to have successfully thwarted the multi-billion dollar Russia-Germany gas pipeline known as Nord Stream 2, after US sanctions in December took direct aim at the European and international companies and their executives assembling the controversial 760-mile long project that would allow Russia to export natural gas directly to Germany.Bloomberg reports the White House's "top energy official said he’s confident that Russia won’t be able to complete the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea — and signaled that the U.S. will press forward with its opposition to the project." It was spearheaded by Russian giant Gazprom and five European energy companies, including French electricity and gas firm Engie SA and Royal Dutch, and the Swiss company Allseas Group SA, among others; however, primary pipeline layer Allseas pulled out of the project under pressure from US sanctions. Gazprom then said it would outfit its own ships to circumvent the sancitons after Allseas dropped out. U.S. Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette, however, said of Gazprom's efforts, “they can’t,” while denying the Russian energy giant's claim that it will only face a “short delay”. “It’s going to be a very long delay, because Russia doesn’t have the technology,” Brouillette said while speaking on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference over the weekend. “If they develop it, we’ll see what they do. But I don’t think it’s as easy as saying, well, we’re almost there, we’re just going to finish it.” Washington's stance has put a significant awkward rift between it and its European ally Germany, after Berlin vowed it would see the project through while accusing the US of "interference" and "meddling" in Europe's energy independence. “It’s distressing to Americans that, you know, Germany in particular and others in Europe would rely upon the Russians to such a great degree,” Brouillette said of Berlin's refusal to heed the US call to fold up the project. Thus far Nord Stream 2’s owners have sunk some $6.3 billion into the project, which has elsewhere been estimated at a total $10.5 billion.
U.S. slaps sanctions on Russian oil firm in swipe at Venezuela's Maduro - (Reuters) - The United States on Tuesday ramped up pressure on Venezuela by blacklisting a subsidiary of Russian state oil major Rosneft that President Donald Trump’s administration said provides a financial lifeline to President Nicolas Maduro’s government. The U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on Rosneft Trading SA, the Geneva-based trading unit of Rosneft, as Washington targeted Moscow over its backing of Maduro’s government. The move further complicates already-fraught U.S.-Russian relations. Russia condemned the sanctions, saying they amounted to unfair competition and would not deter Moscow from continuing to work with Venezuela. Russia’s Foreign Ministry said the move would further damage relations with Washington and undermine global free trade. Venezuelan Foreign Minister Jorge Arreaza called the U.S. action “unilateral” and said Washington continued “attacking the Venezuelan people.” U.S. officials accused the Rosneft subsidiary of propping up the Venezuelan oil sector and engaging in “tricks” and ship-to-ship transfers to actively evade American sanctions. “I think this is a very significant step, and I think you will see companies all over the world in the oil sector now move away from dealing with Rosneft Trading,” Elliott Abrams, the U.S. special representative for Venezuela, told reporters. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin added in a statement, “The United States is determined to prevent the looting of Venezuela’s oil assets by the corrupt Maduro regime.”
Trump Sanctions Rosneft, Russia's Largest Oil Company, For Helping Maduro In Venezuela - The Trump administration announced significant new sanctions on Tuesday targeting Rosneft, Russia’s largest oil company, for helping Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro circumvent U.S. sanctions. Specifically, the sanction targets Rosneft Trading SA, a unit of Russia's state-owned oil giant Rosneft, as well as company’s executive Didier Casimiro, over the company’s actions in Venezuela, senior administration official said in call with reporters.The US accused Rosneft of propping up Venezuela’s oil sector, the admin official said, characterizing the company as the “primary culprit” of a campaign to evade Washington’s pressure campaign on the Maduro regime.As the US further details, the network of deception sometimes involves transferring oil to new ship before sale, typically to Asia. Occasionally, ships will also change their names, or lie about source of oil. As McClatchy details, "the administration has accused Rosneft of sending tankers to Venezuelan ports without their tracking systems on — a violation of international law and a lifeline from sanctions on Venezuela’s own state-run oil company, PDVSA, that has allowed Maduro to indirectly sell oil to China and India. Officials also said that Rosneft was orchestrating a strategy of transferring Venezuelan oil in international waters for shipment to Asia and West Africa."US officials said that sanctions would hit Rosneft unit, as well as Casimiro’s U.S. assets but stand as worldwide prohibition, and warned that the new U.S. sanctions will affect “anyone engaging in activity” with Rosneft Trading S.A."This is a reaction to the growing and increasingly central role of Rosneft in the affairs of Venezuela,” one senior administration official said, “with Rosneft now trading over half of the oil now coming out of Venezuela, and actively evading sanctions — engaging in ruses, engaging in deception."White House officials acknowledged earlier this month that sanctions on the Russian state-run firm were “on the table.” But President Donald Trump’s decision to proceed marks a significant escalation in his pressure campaign against Maduro and a rare confrontation with Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin.
Denouncing the U.S., Venezuelan Troops and Militias Stage Drills — Venezuela’s armed forces and civilian militias took the streets in cities, beaches and border regions on Saturday for drills ordered by President Nicolás Maduro, amid tensions between Washington and Caracas. Despite the maneuvers, there are no indications that the U.S. plans any military intervention in Venezuela. Washington has focused on political and diplomatic pressure in its efforts to oust Maduro, only saying last year that it had not ruled out a military option. Maduro called for the exercises as he comes under pressure from the U.S. and dozens of other nations backing a year-long campaign by opposition leader Juan Guaidó to force the leader from power. Residents in a pro-Maduro slum in Caracas participated in the exercises. They included a growing number of civilian militia members recruited by a cash-starved government that is struggling to keep Venezuela’s shattered economy afloat. “I answered the call to help prepare for our defense because my country, my homeland, is under threat from the U.S. empire,” said militia member Pablo Antonio Reyes, a 63-year-old electronics technician. Militiamen and government supporters dressed in red shirts held combat drills on streets blocked off by city buses. They evacuated residents from buildings as tires burned on rooftops to simulate fires from attacks. “The purpose of this exercise is to keep us prepared,” said militia member Carmen Ferrer, 50. Maduro said that the two-day maneuvers were aimed at fending off “terrorist aggression” by Washington and its allies in the region including neighboring Colombia. The Venezuelan military, which has received Russian support, deployed missile launchers, anti-aircraft batteries and radars in the streets. The government seeks to boost militia ranks, filled out by the old and young, housewives and students.
Argentina’s energy bust spawns ‘ghost town’ in prized Vaca Muerta - — Just weeks into his young administration, Argentina’s new president convened a meeting with executives from Chevron Corp, Royal Dutch Shell PLC and other oil companies in a bid to smooth things over with an industry which he had slammed as a candidate months before. Campaigning last year against the South American country’s former market-friendly president, Alberto Fernandez had said there was no point in Argentina having oil riches if “you have to let multinationals come and take it away.” In a fence-mending session Jan. 16, Fernandez apologized to energy executives for the mixed signals, according to an industry source with direct knowledge of the meeting. But Fernandez did not present a plan at that meeting, nor put forward his own thoughts, the source said, a sign that the new government had yet to settle on a course of action for ramping the Western Argentine shale deposit up to its full potential. “They know what they are supposed to do … but they don’t know what changes will make things better or worse,” said another official at a U.S. service provider who declined to be named, adding that he had “zero hope” that Fernandez’s promised bill would significantly improve the bleak outlook at Vaca Muerta. When asked about the government’s plan for the area and the meeting with executives, a spokesman for the energy secretariat said, “Vaca Muerta is central as a country project at a global level.” The success of Vaca Muerta, often compared to the Permian Basin in the United States based on its vast potential, is key for this South American nation that has failed for decades to break free of cyclical crises and is grappling with inflation above 50% and a $100-billion pile of sovereign debt. But more than a dozen interviews with energy executives, property developers, analysts and locals here in Añelo, considered the capital of Vaca Muerta, show how patience is running out for global energy giants including Halliburton Co and Schlumberger NV once committed to tapping the region’s reserves, as well as the thousands of Argentines trying to scratch out a living in a region that was bustling just 12 months ago.
2019: The Year Fracking Earthquakes Turned Deadly - On Feb. 25, 2019, an earthquake shook the village of Gaoshan in China's Sichuan Province, leaving 12 people injured and two dead. New research indicates the earthquake and its two foreshocks were likely triggered by hydraulic fracturing, also called fracking. If this is true, it would mark the first time in history that a fracking-induced earthquake has killed people.The study shows why magnitude, the most common way of reporting earthquake size, could lead people to underestimate the true threat fracking-induced earthquakes might pose. The Feb. 25 earthquake was only a magnitude 4.9, which would not traditionally be considered very dangerous. But it was able to destroy older and more vulnerable buildings because it was so close to the surface -- only about one kilometer deep according to the new study. That's shallow even by fracking standards, but fracking-induced earthquakes do tend to be much shallower than natural ones."The shallower it is, then for the same magnitude of earthquake, the stronger the shaking," said Hongfeng Yang, a seismologist at the Chinese University of Hong Kong and senior author of the study. The findings are not yet published, but Yang and graduate student Pengcheng Zhou presented them last December at a meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco. Most fracking operations in North America don't cause earthquakes, and the earthquakes that do occur have generally been small. Some media reports have attributed damaging earthquakes in Oklahoma to fracking, but experts believe most of those earthquakes were caused by wastewater that oil and gas developers disposed of by injecting it deep underground. Some of the wastewater included fluids used during the fracking process, but most of it came from ancient underground aquifers, according to Mike Brudzinski, a seismologist at Miami University in Oxford, Ohio. The oil beneath Oklahoma is naturally mixed with large volumes of water, and developers must filter out the water before they can sell the oil. Western Canada has experienced a few moderate-sized fracking earthquakes with magnitudes up to about 4.5, but they mostly occurred in remote locations far from major human settlements. And even in western Canada, only about one in 300 fracking operations causes earthquakes large enough for a person to feel, said Eyre.
Nigerias state oil company and partners spent $360 million on Delta cleanup: NNPC - (Reuters) - Nigeria’s state oil company and its joint venture partners have spent $360 million on cleaning up the Niger Delta oil heartland in the past two years, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) said on Monday, but locals said little work had been done. Nigeria is Africa’s biggest crude oil exporter. Oil sales account for around 90% of its foreign currency earnings but oil spills in the southern Niger Delta region have caused pollution and angered locals. Royal Dutch Shell Plc was forced out of Ogoniland in 1993 by campaigners led by activist Ken Saro-Wiwa, after they said the oil company had destroyed their fishing environment. Saro-Wiwa was later hanged by the military government, prompting international outrage. A 2011 United Nations report warned of catastrophic pollution in soil and water in Ogoniland. It said Shell and Nigeria’s government needed to address the problems. Shell paid a settlement of 55 million pounds to villagers and since then has said it has taken steps to improve the situation in the area, including training youths to start up businesses and funding community patrols to reduce pollution by vandals stealing oil. A cleanup process launched in 2017 followed years of legal wrangling in the wake of oil spills. Ewubare said the $360 million was out of a total $900 million recommended by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). He said NNPC and it partners were ready to fund the project as prescribed by the UNEP report. But a number of locals questioned the impact of the operation. “What they are touting as a cleanup is substandard,” Christian Kpandei, a fish farmer whose land was polluted, said in an interview with Reuters. Morris Alagoa, of the Environmental Rights Action (ERA) campaign group, said he had seen little activity since the operation began. “I can’t say those handling the cleanup have actually started real work,” he said. But a photograph seen by Reuters taken in the last few weeks in Bodo, which sits in Ogoniland, showed men wearing overalls and hard hats beside boats, suggesting some activity.
South Sudan buries reports on oil pollution, birth defects- The reports, which date as far back as 2013, were presented to the oil companies and South Sudan's ministry of petroleum but subsequently buried, according to four people with close knowledge of the oil operations and the documents.The oil industry in South Sudan has left a landscape pocked with hundreds of open waste pits, the water and soil contaminated with toxic chemicals and heavy metals including mercury, manganese, and arsenic, according to four environmental reports obtained by The Associated Press. The reports also contain accounts of "alarming" birth defects, miscarriages and other health problems among residents of the region and soldiers who have been stationed there. Residents describe women unable to get pregnant and having excessive numbers of miscarriages, and babies born with severe birth defects. Abui Mou Kueth's infant son, Ping, was born with six fingers on both hands, one stunted leg, a deformed foot and kidney swelling. "I am worried about his future." The AP obtained the reports and supporting documents from people with close knowledge of the oil operations, one of whom works in the industry. The reports have never been released publicly. The reports, which date as far back as 2013, were presented to the oil companies and South Sudan's ministry of petroleum but subsequently buried, according to four people with close knowledge of the oil operations and the documents. All spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of their safety. "South Sudan is running one of the dirtiest and poorest managed oil operations on the planet," said Egbert Wesselink, the former head of a European coalition of more than 50 non-profit organizations focused on the impacts of the country's oil sector. "I don't think there's a single major industrial operation on earth that's getting away with this," he said. There's been no clear link established between the pollution and the health problems. But community leaders and lawmakers in the oil-rich areas in Upper Nile and Unity states -- in the northeast and north of the country bordering Ethiopia and Sudan -- accuse South Sudan's government and the two main oil consortiums, the Chinese-led Dar Petroleum Operating Co. and the Greater Pioneer Operating Co., of neglecting the issue and trying to silence those who have tried to expose the problem. An AP reporter looking into the pollution and health issues was detained and questioned by government officials and government security forces working on behalf of the oil companies. Neither company responded to multiple requests for comment on the reports, and did not answer detailed questions sent by email and text message from the AP.
South Sudan finally ready to clean up its oil pollution - Crude oil, key to boosting South Sudan’s economy, is destroying crucial pasture land, polluting water, and increasing birth defects. Now it’s finally bad enough for the government to take notice. Grass is black from oil spills, air is dark from pillars of black smoke, and layers of “black gold” cover water supplies. Mitigating the pollution in the East African, northern, crude-producing regions has been made a top priority and an audit is underway to locate contaminated areas and find ways to clean it up, according to petroleum and mining minister Awow Daniel Chuang. “Regulations will be used to save the environment; the policy will be for zero discharge,” he said in Juba this month. David Gai, a former information minister in what is now Unity state, said negligence and failure to inspect pipelines in a timely fashion is at the root of much of the problem. Company failures to enclose production sites is also a threat, said Abraham Ngor, a former state official in the Ruweng region. “The government has issued precautionary warnings to people to avoid living near these areas.” Birth defects are also a “big issue” for communities in his region but little details are available. “Investigations will help to find the exact cause,” Ngor said. Oil production is key to development in the world’s newest country that seceded from Sudan in 2011. It’s currently producing as much as 166,000 barrels per day (bpd), according to a government report released on Thursday. That compares with output of about 350,000 bpd before war broke out in 2013. More than five years of fighting claimed almost 400,000 lives, forced 4-million others from their homes and caused an economic crisis. Previous attempts to implement peace agreements have failed. Despite the environmental damage, the government is pressing ahead with plans to boost sales by increasing buyers and encouraging international investment. The country has announced plans to offer 14 oil exploration blocks during the first quarter of this year as it seeks new sources of production.
The World's Top LNG Producer Is In Trouble - Global LNG markets are struggling with a glut of unprecedented levels. International expansion in Australia, Qatar, Mozambique and Egypt, combined with a continuously strong US shale gas export drive, is pushing down prices further. Analysts have warned before that a possible LNG glut could end in tears, but nobody was expecting that the market would also be hit by a demand side shock such as China’s coronavirus. The last couple of weeks, major LNG export cargoes to China have been diverted to other clients or are still looking for a destination in an already woefully oversupplied market.Major LNG producers such as Qatar or Egypt are feeling the pain already. During Egypt’s EGYPS2020, a major oil and gas conference, participants showed concern about the imminent future of the East Med gas hub, as new LNG export contracts still have not been signed and asking prices are unlikely to be met. Today’s announcement that Qatar has delayed its choice of Western partners for the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) project by several months isn’t going unnoticed. Without direct statements by Qatar Petroleum, sources have stated that the delay decision has been made based on current market fundamentals and the still unclear impact of the Corona virus. Qatar has been fighting an uphill battle as the market has been glutted by US shale gas exports and a drop in Chinese demand. International interest for the Qatar LNG expansion has been large, and among those interested were industry giants such as Shell and ExxonMobil . No list of interested parties has been issued by QP, but around six Western companies are believed to have shown interest. The market was expecting the announcement of its partners by QP in Q1 2020, but this will be delayed until later this year. Rationally the decision to delay is needed, as a 60% LNG production expansion by QP to reach a volume of 126 million tons by 2027 will be a real risk. At the same time, the coronavirus has put the total global market on edge. Demand for oil and gas is feared to be hit very hard, even when current demand figures of China and others are way above what some analysts have been expecting the last weeks. Lower prices have enticed Chinese fill up storage tanks. Still, if Chinese authorities fail to contain the virus, Asian economies could come to a partial standstill, which would gravely impact demand for transportation fuels and natural gas. Not only traditional LNG exporters, such as Qatar, or East Med producers like Egypt or Algeria, are being hit by the current glut. US shale gas exporters are now facing a major crisis too. Dreams about entering global strong markets with high price settings however have been destroyed, as due to an already existing gas glut, prices have been low already. US gas exports are now only contributing to the glut, pushing prices even further down. Booming U.S. exports combined with lower Asian demand is a major recipe for disaster, effecting most IOCs, but especially Shell, Total and ENI, as all have been concentrating their own investment and expansion strategies in natural gas. Some US producers, such as Chesapeake Energy are already fighting bankruptcy, and IOCs have been hit by a slump in profits.
India LNG buyers spoilt for choice as China woes create problem of plenty — Indian buyers are rushing to snap up LNG at relatively low prices as suppliers look for alternative markets amid the coronavirus epidemic that has sapped the appetite for cargoes in China, the world's second-largest natural gas importer behind Japan. The South Asian nation has floated a series of import tenders as well as absorbed some of the diverted cargoes at attractive prices. However, analysts warned that although the Indian market has witnessed a sharp increase in interest for cargoes, infrastructure bottlenecks would limit the incremental volumes that India can absorb above and beyond its immediate needs, despite desperate sellers looking to close a deal. "India certainly represents an important market which could absorb some additional volumes," said Jeff Moore, manager of Asian LNG Analytics at S&P Global Platts. "The new Mundra terminal was recently commissioned but has so far seen very low utilization rates. With new infrastructure available it's possible that India could represent an important outlet for excess LNG," he added. Moore reckoned that India's imports were averaging roughly 15 Mcm/d higher so far this year compared with the same period in 2019. "This really demonstrates how important a growth market India is in the broader context. And as long as infrastructure continues to get built out and allow for additional volumes, it's possible more LNG could head in that direction," he added. One such LNG cargo, the Marvel Pelican, is currently heading to Dahej in India after having changed its destination from China, according to cFlow, Platts trade-flow software, and researcher Energy Aspects. And analysts said more diversions of cargoes towards India maybe in the offing in the near future. "We were already seeing price sensitive buyers in India buying more LNG as a result of record low LNG prices in recent months. This was happening even before the COVID-19 outbreak," said James Waddell, senior global gas analyst at Energy Aspects. "The destruction of Chinese demand because of the virus and the resultant distressed LNG cargoes will further encourage Indian cargo buying. We are seeing a high number of LNG buying tenders from Indian firms at the moment," he added.
India set to import record LNG volumes as spot prices slump on virus impact - (Reuters) - India is set to import record volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) this month, data shows, taking advantage of the super-chilled fuel’s price hitting all-time lows due to the coronavirus outbreak dampening demand in China. The South Asian nation is estimated to import about 2.36 million tonnes in February, shiptracking data from Refinitiv Eikon showed. That would exceed India’s LNG imports in October of about 2.3 million tonnes, the previous highest monthly total. The country’s annual LNG imports is expected to rise by 10%-15% this year, said Poorna Rajendran of consultancy firm FGE. “The low spot prices are creating some downstream demand especially from the city-gas sector,” a source familiar with LNG imports into India told Reuters. India regasifies LNG and uses it primarily in the city-gas distribution, fertilizer, power and industrial sectors. Asian spot LNG prices LNG-AS fell to a record low this month after China’s top LNG buyer declared force majeure on some LNG deliveries following the coronavirus outbreak. That prompted some of the cargoes bound for China to be diverted to India and also some Indian buyers to issue tenders seeking spot cargoes, traders said. Some of them are even seeking cargoes for several months, they added. For instance, Reliance Industries issued a tender seeking five cargoes for April to June delivery while Gujarat State Petroleum Corp (GSPC) sought nine cargoes for February to April, traders said. GSPC likely did not award the tender, however, and may have re-issued it, the traders said. The potential uptick in demand also likely prompted Emirates National Oil Company (ENOC) to issue a tender seeking eight cargoes for delivery into India over April to November, the traders said. Infrastructure constraints, however, will limit LNG purchases by buyers in India, FGE’s Rajendran said.
India's Upside for Oil Demand Seems Unlimited - With almost 1.4 billion people, India remains the most energy-deprived nation on Earth. The upside for demand seems almost unlimited. India has 635 million people under the age of 24. This is a burgeoning young population the size of the total populations of the U.S., Japan, Germany, France, and Canada. Coal will remain the main source of energy, but the proven global reality that demand mounts as human development progresses makes India’s oil usage unidirectional: up. Today, oil accounts for 25 percent of India’s total energy demand, rather high for a still developing country. The latent demand, however, is just staggering. Indians use less than 0.2 gallons of oil products per day, versus 2.6 gallons for the U.S. Even though it has almost 11 times more people, India overtook Japan only in 2015 to become the world’s third largest oil consumer after the U.S. and China. Over the past decade, China (45 percent) and India (20 percent) have accounted for the bulk of new global oil demand. Driven by more diesel fuel, gasoline, and LPG, India could race past China to become the world’s primary new consumer within five or seven years. For those claiming “the end of oil,” the truth is that the world’s most vital fuel has no material substitute whatsoever. Electric transport, for instance, is overly expensive here in the rich U.S., let alone for a still developing country where 70 percent of the people subsist on biomass. Dreaming of the same luxuries that Westerners enjoy, gas-guzzling SUVs now comprise 35 percent of all car sales in India. An essential part of India’s growing oil usage has come from lower prices for petroleum and its products. After all, India has an annual GDP per capita of just $2,300, versus a whopping $55,300 for the U.S. The government has typically regulated costs but the expensive habit has been phasing these subsidies out. At the end of January, for instance, GlobalPetrolPrices reported India’s gasoline price at $1.07 per liter (interestingly, the exact price of China’s), well above the $0.75 per liter for the U.S. India has been steadily preparing for the oil demand boom. Refining capacity has been growing 5-6 percent per year over the past decade to above 5 million b/d. Bolstered by major private sector investment, India now has several world-class refineries. For example, Reliance Industries’ Jamnagar complex in Gujarat might be the most advanced refinery in the world. India though is a persistent low crude producer holding less than five billion barrels of proven reserves. With rising demand amid flat production, India has therefore continually turned to the global market to fill the gap (see Figure). Since 2010, import dependence has risen from 70 percent of total consumption to 85 percent. While India’s NOCs have sought to diversify with equity stakes overseas, most oil imports come from the Middle East, where there is little direct access to investment.
Oil Demand Growth to Quintuple Next Year - Global oil demand growth will drop to 0.44 million barrels per day (MMbpd) this year but rebound to 2.34 MMbpd in 2021. That’s according to a new research note from Standard Chartered, which outlined that the company’s latest modelling shows a reduction of 2020 demand growth of 793,000 barrels per day relative to its pre-coronavirus base case.The note highlights that growth of 0.44 MMbpd would be the slowest annual growth since 2009. Demand growth of 2.34 MMbpd would be the second strongest annual growth in the past 15 years, Standard Chartered noted.“We see the demand shock as temporary; there is no demand destruction, simply a short-term dampening,” Standard Chartered analysts stated in the research note.“We expect demand to return to its previous trend in 2021,” the analysts added.Standard Chartered lowered its 2020 Brent forecast by $6 per barrel in its latest research note to $64 per barrel. The company’s average 2020 WTI forecast was lowered by $5 per barrel to $59 per barrel.Following the coronavirus outbreak, Fitch Solutions Macro Research (FSMR) also revised down its Brent oil price forecast for 2020. FSMR now sees Brent averaging $62 per barrel this year, which marks a $3 drop compared to its previous forecast in January.Rystad Energy revealed last week that it had slashed its global oil demand growth forecast for 2020 by 25 percent after assessing the impact of the coronavirus. The company now sees demand growing by 820,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year, compared to its previous forecast of 1.1. million bpd, which was published in December before the virus outbreak. Rystad has warned, however, that the virus’ impact on demand could be even bigger and revealed that its worst-case scenario sees growth plunging to 650,000 bpd year on year.
Wishful Thinking - OPEC Drastically Underestimates China Virus - A comparison of the latest forecasts from the world’s three big oil agencies - the International Energy Agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries - highlights the huge uncertainty that exists over the virus’s repercussions for oil demand. As may be expected for a body representing oil producers, OPEC sees the impact as minimal, having just cut its first-quarter forecast for global oil demand by only 400,000 barrels a day. That looks like wishful thinking. The IEA’s revision is three times as big, and if its forecast bears out, it’s deep enough to tip the world into its first year-on-year drop in demand in more than a decade. The IEA has slashed its 1Q20 global oil demand forecast by 1.3 million barrels a day - three times as much as the revision made by OPEC China’s own oil consumption is down sharply as factories stay closed and travel restrictions remain in place even after the extended Lunar New Year holiday comes to an end. Congestion on roads in major cities is far below normal levels. The chart below shows journey times in Shanghai, and other Chinese cities mirror that pattern. My colleagues at BloombergNEF estimate that China’s jet fuel use is now down by 240,000 barrels a day from pre-virus levels, with departures from Chinese airports down by around 80%. Roads in Shanghai remain empty even after the extended Lunar New Year holiday ends; the pattern is similar in other cities Pollution statistics also capture the slowdown in economic activity and fuel use — something that under different circumstances might be reason to celebrate. China’s nitrogen dioxide emissions fell 36% in the week after the holiday from the same period a year earlier, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. A slowdown of 25%-50% across industrial sectors such as oil refining, coal-fired power generation and steel production contributed to the drop, according to the independent research organization. However, even as the Covid-19 virus hits consumption, the number of very large crude carriers hauling cargoes to China has risen. That’s because independent refiners are taking advantage of the drop in crude prices to fill their storage tanks with cheap cargoes, even as they cut run rates. That’s to some extent cushioning producers now. But those stockpiles will hit future demand for crude from China’s teapot refineries, even after the immediate effect of the virus dissipates. At the same time, the Chinese government is in the process of building and filling a strategic stockpile similar to the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, as it becomes ever more dependent on imported supplies. It may also be using the price drop to boost purchases for long-term storage, raising the risk that it will cut them again as prices recover, crimping demand for imported oil in the future. By contrast, China’s state-owned processors are seeking to reduce the volumes supplied under term contracts. Even with reduced refinery runs, China is producing more fuel than it needs. Exports of gasoline and diesel have soared, according to shipping intelligence firm Vortexa. But they aren’t finding ready buyers. Most of these additional fuel exports are ending up in storage tanks in Singapore amid subdued regional demand. In that light, OPEC’s forecast that global oil demand will be cut by just 440,000 barrels a day in the first quarter and by 230,000 barrels a day over the year as a whole looks like wishful thinking on the part of producers. It is doing them no favors, though. A delay in reducing supplies will only make the cuts needed later even deeper.
Corona Virus Hits Oil Demand and Prices - The full impact of the corona virus – which has infected about 14,000 people and killed over 400 (as of Feb. 4) -- on world oil and gas markets is only slowly becoming clear. The cancellation of flights within, into and out of China is cutting jet fuel demand in China and around the world, while Chinese refiners are experiencing a sharp fall in demand for diesel and gasoline from industry and transport sectors as travel bans continue and economic activity slows. The economic fallout could produce a wider regional impact on demand across east Asia, and if there is any widespread infection elsewhere, the impact will be even greater – the World Health Organisation declared an international emergency on Jan. 30th but does not yet see it as a global pandemic. All this has sent oil prices tumbling, despite heightened tensions in the Mideast, a tightly adhered-to OPEC-plus deal and the shut-in of about 1mn b/d of Libyan output due to civil unrest. Brent has moved into contango (where forward prices are higher than current levels) as prompt demand weakens, and analysts around the world are slashing demand forecasts for 2020. Product prices are also taking a hit as demand falls, narrowing crack spreads and refining margins, especially in Asia. LNG prices too, already at record lows, are coming under further downward pressure. “The ongoing coronavirus outbreak and subsequent large-scale quarantine measures are posing a major economic risk to China and beyond,” said Yujiao Lei of Wood Mackenzie, with jet fuel (currently with demand of about 8mn b/d globally) hardest hit. She said the experience during the 2003 SARS outbreak suggested a severe and one-off impact on jet fuel demand and, to a lesser degree, gasoline and diesel. But the corona outbreak already looks to be more damaging than SARS, with travel and economic activity (which is far higher in China now than in 2003) more severely hit and considerable uncertainty as to when the situation might improve; Hubei Province, where the disease epicentre of Wuhan is located, alone accounts for over 4% of China’s GDP and remains in lockdown, with other restrictions in place across the country and no clear idea of when such measures will end. Early Feburary reports suggested a fall in Chinese demand of 20% in January, equating to 2-3mn b/d or 2-3% of global demand. That could be higher still in February and if sustained would put further downward pressure on crude prices.
Oil prices bounce on hope for short coronavirus downturn (Reuters) - Hedge funds continued selling petroleum last week as fears about a coronavirus-driven recession centred on China gripped the market, but the rate of sales slowed compared with the previous fortnight. Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of 74 million barrels in the six most important petroleum futures and options contracts in the seven days ending on Feb. 11 (tmsnrt.rs/2OYesZS). But sales were slower than in the week ending Feb. 4 (131 million barrels) and the week ending Jan. 28 (147 million), according to position data from regulators and exchanges. Portfolio managers have sold a total of 440 million barrels over the last five weeks, substantially reversing cumulative purchases of 533 million over the previous three months. Funds were sellers last week of Brent (69 million barrels), NYMEX and ICE WTI (15 million) and European gasoil (around unchanged). But there were net purchases of both U.S. diesel (4 million) and U.S. gasoline (7 million). Overall, the last time the hedge fund community was this bearish towards petroleum was in early October, and before that January 2019, when concerns about a U.S./China trade-war driven recession were at their highest. Fund managers hold less than three bullish long positions for every bearish short one, down from a recent peak ratio of almost 7:1 at the start of the year. The ratio of long to short positions is towards the bottom of the range for the last four years, currently in the 19th percentile for all weeks since the start of 2016. Most of the bullish positions accumulated in the last quarter of 2019 in anticipation of a cyclical economic upswing and faster oil consumption growth in 2020 have now been liquidated. The liquidation seems to have been mostly completed by the start of last week and it has been followed by a $4 per barrel rally in Brent prices. From a positioning perspective, the distribution of risks had shifted to the upside by the start of last week, with the potential for a significant increase in bullish positions and prices if the coronavirus outbreak is brought under control and China’s business activity returns to near normal.
Short Selling In Oil Slows After Initial Coronavirus Panic - Money managers continued to liquidate long positions in the petroleum futures last week, but the pace of rising shorts has slowed after the early market panic about the impact of the coronavirus outbreak on oil demand. Portfolio managers reduced their net long position—the difference between bullish and bearish bets—on WTI Crude by 7 percent in the week to February 11, according to the latest data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, as carried by Bloomberg. Despite a slowdown in shorts on WTI, the overall positioning in the contract remains the most bearish since November, according to Bloomberg estimates. In the week to February 11, money managers sold the equivalent of 74 million barrels in the six most important petroleum contracts, exchanges data compiled by Reuters market analyst John Kemp showed on Monday. Hedge funds were still net sellers of oil futures last week, but the pace of selling has slowed after the panic-selling in the two previous weeks.In the week to February 11, the combined net-long position in WTI Crude andBrent Crude was cut by 78k lots to a three-month low at 406k lots, or the equivalent of 406 million barrels, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said on Monday.“Since the January 10 peak at 714k lots the combined net-long has now been cut by 43% on a combination of the gross-short rising by 90% to 212k lots while the gross-long has been cut by 25% to 618k lots,” Hansen noted. Speculators continued to liquidate their longs over the latest reporting week through last Tuesday, ING strategists said on Monday.“Given the rally in the market since last Tuesday, the current net-long is likely larger than it was as of last Tuesday,” ING strategists Warren Patterson and Wenyu Yao said. Last week, oil prices recorded their first weekly gain since early January as the market shook off the coronavirus panic and hoped for a Chinese stimulus in case the virus outbreak considerably slows down the economy. Yet, market sentiment is still bearish given the coronavirus hit to oil demand this quarter.
Fading Hope for Emergency OPEC Meeting Caps Oil Rally - Oil was steady after the biggest weekly gain since September as hopes for an OPEC+ emergency meeting on the virus faded, while investors assessed Chinese stimulus measures to soften the outbreak’s economic impact. While Saudi Arabia hasn’t given up on its push for the gathering this month, OPEC and its allies are likely to stick with a scheduled meeting in March after Russia balked at the idea. China, Hong Kong and Singapore have pledged extra fiscal stimulus to counter the economic hit from the deadly coronavirus, with Beijing considering measures such as lowering corporate taxes. While Brent oil rallied by more than 5% last week amid speculation that the worst economic impacts of the virus may have been accounted for, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. slashed its 2020 crude-demand forecast almost in half and lowered its first-quarter price estimate by 16%. Sentiment remains cautious with Hubei, the Chinese province at the epicenter of the outbreak, reporting new cases and additional deaths. “What we saw last week was cautious optimism that the coronavirus spread could no longer be worsening, or could be contained within China,” “But that cautious optimism is not enough for crude to recover all the ground it has lost.” Brent for April settlement lost 3 cents to $57.29 a barrel as of 7:39 a.m. in London on the ICE Futures Europe exchange after falling as much as 0.9% earlier. The contract advanced 5.2% last week. The global benchmark crude traded at a premium of $4.94 to West Texas Intermediate. WTI for March delivery added 5 cents to $52.10 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose 3.4% last week, the biggest weekly gain since December. Russia has resisted Saudi Arabia’s efforts for a swift response to the virus, even after an OPEC+ committee recommended additional collective cutbacks of 600,000 barrels a day — on top of the 2.1 million already being made. Global oil demand is expected to decline this quarter for the first time in more than a decade, according to the International Energy Agency.
Oil Snaps Rally as Investors Assess Virus Measures -- Oil snapped the longest run of daily gains this year as investors assessed the demand hit from the coronavirus and stimulus measures being rolled out to cushion its economic impact. Markets are overconfident in expecting a v-shaped recovery and oil prices are likely to remain weak during the first half of the year, according to Citigroup Inc. China has pledged a raft of fiscal stimulus measures, while Singapore will boost spending to counter the slowdown in tourism and trade. The outbreak has curbed travel and hit supply chains across the world, with Chinese refineries continuing to trim processing rates and Apple Inc. saying it won’t be able to meet its revenue guidance for the March quarter due to work slowdowns and lower smartphone demand. Brent oil rallied the past five days amid optimism the worst economic impacts had been accounted for. “Markets are taking a view that this will be a temporary deferral of demand, rather than destruction,” said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney. “I don’t agree. I think, the destruction of demand will be significantly higher than the market is pricing at the moment.” Brent for April settlement lost 89 cents, or 1.5%, to $56.78 on the ICE Futures Europe exchange as of 7:54 a.m. in London after closing 0.6% higher on Monday. The global benchmark crude trade at a premium of $5.12 to West Texas Intermediate for the same month. WTI futures for March delivery traded 72 cents lower from Friday’s close at $51.33 a barrel. There was no settlement Monday due to the Presidents Day holiday in the U.S. The supply-chain recovery in China could be problematic despite the stimulus pledge from Beijing, Citigroup analysts including Edward Morse said in a note to clients. Total Chinese product demand may drop by about 3.4 million barrels a day in February and average 1.5 million barrels per day in the first quarter.
Tankers, Tankers. Everywhere! - Virus Causes Historic' Traffic Jam' Across Asian Supply Lines - Covid-19's effect on global energy markets has been disastrous. OPEC slashed its oil demand forecast last week, and Goldman Sachs doubled down on its bearish oil take and has cut its oil price target by $10 to $53 for the year, as a result of a "demand shock" that is set to collapse Chinese oil consumption by 20%, or as much as 4 million barrels per day.The sharp decline in demand in China, which by the way, is the world's largest oil importer, is now stranding oil cargoes off the country's coast and across Asia. Bloomberg's Stephen Stapczynski records footage of an impressive parking lot of tankers and other vessels off the coast of the anchorages of the port of Singapore, one of the largest freight hubs and busiest ports in the world. Tankers... tankers everywhere.#singapore pic.twitter.com/RCEysNtDKo — Stephen Stapczynski (@SStapczynski) February 15, 2020Much of the oil consumption decline is because, as we reported on Friday, China's economy is faltering as its industrial hubs remain shuttered.Take a look at the chart below, in the Feb 7-13 week, steel apparent demand is down a whopping 40%, but that's only because flat steel is down "only" 12% Y/Y as some car plants have ordered their employee to return to work. Real-time measurements of air pollution (a proxy for industrial output), daily coal consumption (a proxy for electricity usage and manufacturing), and traffic congestion levels (a proxy for commerce and mobility) suggest that the second-largest economy in the world has frozen. This all indicates the demand for energy products to power machines and vehicles has abruptly stopped.A significant bottleneck for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) deliveries to China is developing, forcing some ports to reject new tanker loads, contributing to a parking lot of tankers sitting off the coast and in other regions in Asia. Some cargos have been diverted to Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea, but even in those regions, tanker traffic jams are building. Crude storage in China filled up near full capacity last summer, mostly due to declining demand thanks to a decelerating economy. China's overall crude storage is around 760 million barrels, versus a peak of 780 million barrels last June. Middle East traders who export crude via VLCCs to China reported weaker demand. VLCC rates from the Middle East to China have plunged since the virus outbreak began early last month.
Coronavirus creates oil ‘contango’ as supertanker rates dive (graphs) The coronavirus outbreak has stunned commodity markets, sending oil prices lower and disrupting the global shipping industry. Weaker demand for raw materials in China has caused Brent crude, the international benchmark, to fall more than 10 per cent in less than a month to about $57 a barrel. It has also pushed rates for oil-carrying supertankers down by three-quarters to about $23,000 a day. Spot market prices for oil fell so much in February that they briefly became cheaper than contracts for delivery in six months’ time, a phenomenon known as “contango” that usually indicates a heavily oversupplied market. That can create a trading opportunity for commodity houses, which have reportedly inquired with shipowners about hiring vessels to use as floating storage. But market-watchers think a big uptick in the number of ships used for floating storage by those seeking trading profits is unlikely, unless coronavirus fears send spot prices even lower from here. Instead, brokers say, traders are now more interested in ship-to-ship transfers, moving oil from tankers chartered at high rates to cheaper ones. Tanker prices surged between October and January, because of US sanctions levelled against units of Cosco, China’s largest tanker owner. Traders were chartering supertankers — very large crude carriers (VLCC) that can carry 2m barrels of oil — for $100,000 a day at the height of the market.
Oil Stalls After Rosneft Sanctions Offset Virus-Led Demand Fears - Oil ended Tuesday’s session flat after American sanctions on Russia’s largest oil producer helped to erase losses driven by lingering concerns that coronavirus will cut demand. The U.S. sanctioned a unit of Russia’s Rosneft PJSC for maintaining ties with Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro and its state-run oil company. The restrictions come with a three-month wind-down period that expires May 20. “These sanctions will be supportive for prices,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group. “Ultimately, Russia does not want to be on the wrong side of the energy trade.” Futures end flat after recovering on the back of Rosneft sanctions The sanctions on Rosneft represent the latest effort by the U.S. government to increase pressure on Nicolas Maduro’s regime. Rosneft called the sanctions illegal and ungrounded. The tensions also come at a time when oil markets are awaiting a response from OPEC+ on production cuts. Russia, one of the largest exporters in the coalition, has been reluctant to curb oil output past the current production cuts. Prices have lost about 15% since the beginning of the year on fears the coronavirus outbreak will squeeze global demand for crude. While China reported the lowest number of new cases since announcing a change in its method of detection last week, the outbreak continues to weigh on commodities. ING Bank NV cut its Brent and WTI oil forecasts, with oil demand set to remain weak due to the outbreak, analyst Warren Patterson wrote in a report. West Texas Intermediate futures for March delivery settled at $52.05 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. There was no settlement Monday due to the Presidents’ Day holiday in the U.S.
Oil settles unchanged, paring early losses - Oil prices were little changed on Tuesday, pressured by concerns over the impact on crude demand from the coronavirus outbreak in China and a lack of further action by OPEC and its allies to support the market. Brent crude was up 8 cents at $57.75 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled unchanged at $52.05. Earlier in the session WTI fell to a session low of $51.15 per barrel. Though new cases of the coronavirus in mainland China have dipped, global experts said it was too early to judge if the outbreak is being contained. Forecasters including the International Energy Agency (IEA) have cut 2020 oil demand estimates because of the virus. “While the coronavirus remains as a latent bearish consideration capable of sharply reducing Chinese oil demand, estimates as to the extent of demand deterioration still vary widely with any definition still weeks if not months away,” Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates, said in a note. The virus is having a wider impact on financial markets. Asian shares fell, while Wall Street also was retreating after Apple Inc
Oil Prices Rise Amid Sanctions on Rosneft, But Virus Fears Cap Gains - Oil prices gained more than 1% on Wednesday in Asia despite ongoing concerns surrounding the coronavirus outbreak. U.S. Crude Oil WTI Futures gained 1.1% to $52.86 by 12:01 AM ET (04:01 GMT), while the international Brent Oil Futures also rose 1.1% to $58.39. Reports that the U.S. imposed sanctions on a unit of Rosneft, Russia’s largest oil producer, were cited as a tail wind for oil markets today. The restrictions come with a three-month wind-down period that expires May 20. Washington said Rosneft have maintained ties with Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro and its state-run oil company, while the Russian producer called the sanctions illegal and ungrounded. “These sanctions will be supportive for prices,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group. “Ultimately, Russia does not want to be on the wrong side of the energy trade.” Gains of oil prices were capped by lingering concerns about lowered demand due to the virus outbreak that started in China. The Hubei province reported 132 deaths for Feb. 18. So far, China has 74,186 confirmed cases of the virus, according to government data. While the new cases in Hubei fell for a second day, the World Health Organization earlier cautioned that it was too earlier to know if the epidemic was being contained.
Oil up 2% on Libyan Squeeze, Saudi Call for OPEC 'Fire Brigade' – What should have mattered long ago to crude prices — a supply squeeze in Libya — is finally kicking in, extending the market’s rebound from oversold conditions. Adding to the upside were Saudi remarks likening China’s viral pandemic to a “burning house” that needed a “fire brigade” like OPEC to put out and U.S. sanctions on a unit of Russian energy firm Rosneft for its alleged support of Venezuela’s government. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. crude benchmark, settled up $1.20 Wednesday, or 2.3%, at $53.49. Brent, the global benchmark for crude, settled up $1. 37, or 2.4%, at $59.12 per barrel. Wednesday’s rally extended a rebound that began last week after five previous weeks of losses in WTI and Brent. While some of the surge could be attributed to higher risk appetite across markets due to reduced worries over China’s viral pandemic, much of the gains had to do with the shutdown in Libyan crude supplies. Libya has Africa’s largest oil reserves and is caught in decade-old factional fighting for power that erupted after the fall of dictator Muammar Gaddafi. Ceasefire talks in the Libyan civil war broke down amid reports that the Libyan National Army, led by renegade General Khalifa Haftar, had destroyed a Turkish ship in the Port of Tripoli, which it said was carrying weapons and ammunition. “The oil market is starting to realize that as bad as the demand destruction is from the coronavirus, the lack of exports from Libya might be meeting the oil demand destruction barrel for barrel,” said Phil Flynn, analyst at Chicago’s Price Futures Group. “Libya was exporting 1.2 million barrels a day," Flynn said. "That is more than the demand destruction estimates of about 400,000 barrels a day to about 1 million a day. Whatever the real demand destruction is, it's clear that Libya is offsetting a lot of that and after years, the odds of Libya oil exports coming online have gone down dramatically.” Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, meanwhile, likened the impact of China’s Covid-19 crisis on oil as a house on fire that needed urgent OPEC intervention, Bloomberg reported. The Saudis and the rest of OPEC have proposed a 600,000-barrels per day supply cut to mitigate lost demand from the virus, but key ally Russia isn’t agreeing to the plan yet. On the sanctions side, the Trump administration targeted a unit of Russia’s Rosneft PJSC for maintaining ties with Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro and its state-run oil company. The restrictions come with a three-month wind-down period that expires May 20. Though the sanctions don’t really impact day-to-day trades in crude, they added to the geopolitical tensions in oil, boosting prices.
Oil Futures Settle Sharply Higher - Crude oil prices rose sharply on Wednesday as concerns about the outlook for energy demand eased after reports said the number of coronavirus cases fell down for a second straight day in China. Expectations that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allied producers will deepen output cuts, and the U.S. decision to cut more Venezuelan crude from the market contributed as well to the rise in crude oil prices. West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for March ended up $1.24, or about 2.4%, at $53.29 a barrel. Brent crude oil futures climbed up $1.58, or about 2.7%, to $59.33 a barrel. On Tuesday, WTI crude oil futures ended flat at $52.05 a barrel. The U.S. has sanctioned Rosneft PJSC, a unit of Russia's largest oil producer, for maintaining ties with Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro and state-run oil company PDVSA. The move representing the latest escalation in the Trump administration's campaign to oust Maduro and rally international support behind Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido raised concerns over supply. According to the National Health Commission, mainland China had 1,749 new confirmed cases of coronavirus infections on Tuesday, down from 1,886 cases a day earlier and the lowest since Jan. 29. Expectations that the Chinese central bank will cut its benchmark loan prime rate on Thursday to offset the economic damage caused by coronavirus outbreak raised hopes about a likely increase in energy demand from China.
Factbox: Oil rebound extends, but LNG, jet remain bearish as coronavirus blunts demand - Oil prices climbed for a seventh straight session Wednesday as buying interest from Chinese refineries tempered long-term coronavirus demand destruction concerns, but jet fuel cracks and LNG prices were still lower amid weak prompt demand outlooks. Crude prices have steadily climbed off of a February 10 nadir, the date when most Chinese factories were slated to restart after an extend Lunar New Year holiday, but were still holding well under recent highs seen on January 20, when news of the outbreak began to take hold of the market. Dated Brent was assessed by S&P Global Platts at $59.61/b Thursday, up $6.495 from a February 10, but still 7% below its January 20 peak. Globally, the number of confirmed cases has risen to 75,205 with 74,188 of those in China, according to the Johns Hopkins University. At least 2,014 deaths have been attributed to the outbreak worldwide. Travel restrictions were still preventing some employees from returning to work Thursday and factories expected only partial production restarts, with some delaying a return to operations until late February or early March. Airlines have canceled flights, reducing jet fuel demand.
OPEC Confirms Meeting Date, Ends Saudi-Russia Scuffle -- OPEC sent out invitations for meetings between the cartel and its allies on March 5 and 6, delegates said, signaling that plans for an emergency gathering have faded away. The 23-nation coalition known as OPEC+ had already scheduled the conference for early March when it last assembled in December. Saudi Arabia has been pushing for weeks for an earlier meeting of the Organization of Exporting Countries and its allies with Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman this week equating the coronavirus’s impact on the market to a house on fire. Russia -- the most important ally in the broader alliance -- has resisted the initiative, saying that more time is needed to assess the impact of the disease. The invitations distributed this week confirm that the gathering will take place on the originally scheduled dates. It appeared earlier this month that the move for action was accelerating, as OPEC+ convened an urgent session of technical experts in Vienna, who recommended that the producers deepen current cutbacks by 600,000 barrels a day. The coalition is already implementing just over 2 million barrels a day of output curbs to shore up prices in the face of soaring U.S. shale-oil supplies. However, the proposal to cut deeper hasn’t yet received backing from Russia, which is able to weather low oil prices more easily than Persian Gulf producers. Oil traders will now have to wait until early March to see whether the alliance goes ahead with any new measures.
Supply Risks Push Crude Back Toward $60-- Oil jumped back above $58 a barrel and was set for the longest run of gains in more than a year as U.S. sanctions on Russia’s largest producer and conflict in Libya shifted the focus to supply threats from virus-driven demand concerns. The U.S. sanctioned a unit of Russia’s Rosneft PJSC for maintaining ties with Venezuela’s president and its state-run oil company, threatening to crimp the nation’s ability to export crude. In Libya, fighters loyal to eastern military commander Khalifa Haftar shelled Tripoli’s port, forcing a halt to shipping and leading to the suspension of cease-fire talks. Oil is extending its longest rally since January 2019 after surging last week on optimism that the worst economic impacts of the deadly coronavirus had been accounted for. Any disruptions to global supply could go some way to offsetting the demand destruction from the outbreak, just as China and other nations in Asia roll out stimulus packages to cushion the blow. Rosneft’s sanctioned unit has been “Venezuela’s primary conduit for brokering cargoes, which find their way predominantly to refineries in India and China,” Stephen Innes, Asia Pacific market strategist at AxiCorp, said in a note. “Throttling this Asian supply channel will provide some support for oil prices.” Brent for April settlement climbed 53 cents, or 0.9%, to $58.28 on the ICE Futures Europe exchange as of 7:36 a.m. in London after gaining more than 8% in the past six sessions. West Texas Intermediate for March delivery added 57 cents, or 1.1%, to $52.62. Rosneft Trading, the main exporter of Venezuelan crude, was targeted by the U.S. for helping to sell the commodity that bankrolls the regime of President Nicolas Maduro. The sanctions come at a time when markets are waiting for a response from Russia on OPEC+’s proposal to deepen output cuts due to the coronavirus.
Oil Sees Three-Week High on Venezuela and Libya Supply Risks-- Oil climbed to the highest level this month as U.S. sanctions on Rosneft Trading and mounting tensions in Libya threatened global crude supply. Futures advanced 2.4% in New York on Wednesday. Venezuela’s ability to export crude is in jeopardy after the U.S. sanctioned a unit of Rosneft PJSC, the country’s main oil shipper, for ties with Nicolas Maduro and the state-run oil company. Meanwhile, Libya’s cease-fire talks were suspended after the capital’s port was shelled by forces loyal to military commander Khalifa Haftar, who has forced a blockade of the country’s crude exports. “It’s a big turnaround,” said Mike Hiley, head of OTC energy trading with LPS Partners. “There’s no doubt the market is getting a lift from Libya and sanctions.” Geopolitical tensions are rising against the backdrop of the coronavirus outbreak, which has hurt global energy demand. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries sent invitations for a meeting between the cartel and its allies on March 5 and 6, signaling that plans for an emergency gathering to address the epidemic have faded away. West Texas Intermediate for March delivery advanced $1.24 to settle at $53.29 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent for April settlement climbed $1.37 to settle at $59.12 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange, putting its premium over WTI at $5.63. The structure of the futures market is also showing signs of tightening. Brent’s prompt spread rose 16 cents to its strongest level this month, signaling concerns of oversupply may be easing. The attack in Tripoli is the latest escalation between Haftar and the internationally recognized government. A blockade of the country’s ports in mid-January caused crude output to fall to around 123,000 barrels a day from 1.2 million a day.
WTI Extends Gains Despite Bigger Than Expected Crude Build - Oil climbed to the highest level this month amid U.S. sanctions on Rosneft Trading and mounting tensions in Libya threatened global crude supply and the ongoing optimism that the peak impact of the virus on China demand is behind us.“It’s a big turnaround,” said Mike Hiley, head of OTC energy trading with LPS Partners. “There’s no doubt the market is getting a lift from Libya and sanctions.”However, another big crude build will wipe some of that smile off the markets. API:
- Crude +4.2mm (+2.5mm exp)
- Cushing +400k
- Gasoline -2.7mm (+400k exp)
- Distillates -2.6mm (-1.5mm exp)
This is the 4th weekly crude build in a row (and bigger than expected)... WTI traded up to three-week highs today hovering around $53.50 ahead of the data And extended gains despite the bigger than expected crude build...
WTI Extends Longest Win Streak In 13 Months On Weak Crude Inventory Build -Oil prices continued to surge overnight, despite a bigger than expected crude inventory build reported by API. Up 7 days in a row, WTI has topped $54 on signs of tighter global supply and hopes that Chinese economic stimulus will cushion fuel demand from the impact of the coronavirus.“The recent bounce-back in oil prices has been driven by a combination of sentiment and supply factors,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity-markets strategy at BNP Paribas SA.“There’s a slower pace of growth in U.S. shale basins, the threat to Venezuelan production, and no apparent resolution to the situation in Libya.” We suspect another big crude build from the official data today will take the shine off this resurgence... DOE:
- Crude +415k (+2.5mm exp, Whisper +4mm)
- Cushing -133k
- Gasoline -1.971mm (+400k exp)
- Distillates -635k (-1.5mm exp)
After the prior week's surprisingly large crude build, analysts expected another increase and got one but a very small one at just 415k. Cushing stocks fell for the first time in 4 weeks and products saw notable draws...
Oil posts 6th positive session in 7 on smaller-than-expected inventory build - Oil prices rose on Thursday after the U.S. government reported a much smaller-than-anticipated rise in crude stocks, but gains were capped by worries about the spread of Coronavirus outside China. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that crude inventories rose only 414,000 barrels last week, compared with expectations of a 2.5 million barrel rise from analysts in a Reuters poll. However, scores of new coronavirus cases and a first death in South Korea fanned fears of global pandemic as research suggested it could be more contagious than previously thought. Brent crude rose 47 cents, or 0.8%, to $59.59 per barrel. The front-month U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures contract, which expires Thursday, gained 49 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at $53.78 per barrel. The more-active second-month WTI benchmark was up 95 cents, or 0.7%, at $54.44 a barrel. Immediately after the EIA data, Brent front month, front month WTI and second month WTI touched their highest in February. “The overall (EIA) numbers were kind of bullish... What seems to be pulling us back down a little bit is concerns of coronavirus kicking back in a little bit,” said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. U.S. gasoline stockpiles fell by about 2 million barrels in the week to Feb. 14, while analysts had estimated an increase of 435,000 barrels, according to the EIA data. The data also showed that U.S. East Coast refinery utilization rates fell last week to 59.2%, the lowest since November 2012. However, overall U.S. refinery utilization rates rose 1.4%, primarily as the refiners came out of maintenance. China’s move to cut its benchmark lending rate helped ease some worries about slowing demand in the world’s second-biggest oil consumer and largest crude oil importer. Also supporting oil prices were U.S. sanctions this week on a trading unit of Russian oil giant Rosneft for its ties with Venezuela’s state-run PDVSA and conflict in Libya that has led to a blockade of its ports and oilfields.
Oil slides nearly 1% on renewed fears over toll from coronavirus - Oil prices fell nearly 1% on Friday on renewed concerns about crude demand being pinched by the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak, while leading producers appeared to be in no rush to curb output.The latest signs of infections outside the Hubei province epicentre in China spurred a selloff across financial markets, as G20 policymakers travelled to Saudi Arabia for talks on the global economy.Brent crude was down 1.4%, at $58.46 a barrel, while U.S. crude dropped 0.9%, at $53.38 a barrel.Both benchmarks were on track for their second consecutive weekly rise, with Brent up 1.8% and U.S. crude rising 2.3%, as fears over the virus' impact on demand eased earlier in the week and after a smaller-than-expected U.S. crude stock build."It's safe to say that uncertainty (surrounding coronavirus) has returned with a vengeance," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy, Saxo Bank."We have to acknowledge that we're dealing with the biggest demand shock since the financial crisis... Until we see China getting back to work, the virus will be the main focus."In the latest evidence of the economic hit, U.S. business activity in both the manufacturing and services sectors stalled in February.Concerns over the virus have also largely overshadowed risks to supply, including the latest blockade in Libya, said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA in New York.The United Nations on Friday said ceasefire talks were back on track between forces fighting over Libya's capital, days after the internationally recognised government pulled out of negotiations.An agreement could end outages of about 1 million barrels per day of Libyan oil and increase pressure on prices.Also on the supply front, Yemen's Houthis said they had struck facilities of Saudi oil giant Aramco in the Red Sea port of Yanbu.Meanwhile in the United States, the oil rig count, an indicator of future production, rose for a third straight week. Drillers added one oil rig this week, bringing the total count to 679, the highest since the week of Dec. 20, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said.OANDA's Moya also pointed to signs the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was unlikely to add to existing supply curbs.Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Thursday that producers understood it would no longer make sense to meet before a planned gathering in March."Concerns the Saudis and Russians are struggling to agree on the appropriate response to the demand destruction the coronavirus has created," were also weighing on prices, Moya said.
Oil ends lower on reported rift in Saudi-Russian alliance as coronavirus feeds demand anxiety - Oil futures ended with a loss on Friday, pressured by a reported rift in the crude-production alliance between Saudi Arabia and Russia, as concerns about the spread of COVID-19 in China and beyond take a toll on expectations for energy demand. Prices for the U.S. and global crude benchmarks, however, posted weekly gains, partly supported by efforts by China to stimulate the economy, which eased some concerns over the virus outbreak’s impact on the economy. U.S. government data on Wednesday also revealed a smaller-than-expected weekly rise in domestic crude inventories, along with declines in gasoline and distillate stocks. West Texas Intermediate crude for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 50 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at $53.38 a barrel, while April Brent crude BRNJ20, -0.24% lost 81 cents, or 1.4%, to end at $58.50 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. WTI tallied a 2% weekly rise, based on the front-month contract, while Brent added 2.1% for the week. Saudi Arabia is weighing a break from a production alliance with Russia amid a disagreement between the oil heavyweights over the effect of China’s COVID-19 outbreak on global crude demand, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday. The report said Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, which make up more than half the production capacity of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, were holding talks to discuss a possible joint output cut of up to 300,000 barrels a day. A “300,000-bpd cut would only partially compensate for the lost demand as a result of the coronavirus epidemic,” Marshall Steeves, energy markets analyst at IHS Markit, told MarketWatch. “The extent and duration of lost demand remains to be seen given that the outbreak has yet to peak and it isn’t clear when that might happen.” “Russia has hesitated to agree to this round of cuts as they await signs of where demand is going,” he said. Russia is not part of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries but has worked with the group since December 2016 in an effort to balance global oil supply and demand. Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, however, told Reuters that the report that the Saudis are considering a break from the alliance is “nonsense.”
What a breakdown in the Saudi Arabia-Russia oil alliance would mean to the market -- Saudi Arabia and Russia have so far failed to reach an agreement to cut oil production even with the COVID-19 epidemic in China expected to significantly hurt energy demand this year, putting the more than three-year-old alliance between the two major oil producers at risk. Saudi Arabia is weighing a break in its alliance with Russia, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday, citing people familiar with the matter. The Saudis are holding talks with Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates this week to discuss a possible joint production cut of as much as 300,000 barrels a day, the report said. “If the alliance were to split, the immediate reaction would be a drop in oil prices, but that could be reversed by a strong OPEC cut,” said James Williams, energy economist at WTRG Economics. “I doubt that OPEC is anywhere near a breakup, but the alliance between OPEC and non-OPEC producers is fragile.” “OPEC for decades wanted to get the Soviet Union and then Russia to become a member,” he explained to MarketWatch. “Since the 80s the Russians avoided it and it took the collapse of oil prices in 2015 and 2016 to bring them to the table. The rising shale production was the prime mover.” The news Friday of a rift in the alliance followed a technical meeting earlier this month between members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, known collectively as OPEC+. The committee in Vienna recommended that OPEC+ extend current production adjustments to the end of the year. The current agreement calls for OPEC+ cuts of 1.7 million barrels a day, from the October 2018 baseline, through March. “The tussle between OPEC and Russia raises substantial doubt about continuation of production cuts and therefore a return to a heavily oversupplied market,” said Manish Raj, chief financial officer at Velandera Energy. “The market is factoring in the possibility of a total breakdown of the OPEC+ alliance, which can boost supplies by [two to three] million daily barrels in an already oversupplied market.” Reported comments from Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman on Friday, however, helped to pull oil prices off their lows. “This is absurd and utter nonsense, the energy minister told Reuters on Friday, referring to the media report that the Saudis were considering a break from the OPEC+ alliance with Russia.
Price of crude is at highest level in a month - Data indicating an improved supply picture offered some support this week to crude prices, which remained at their highest level in about a month. Continued concerns about the economic pact of the coronavirus, especially in China -- the world’s second-largest economy -- were offset by a lower-than-expected build in U.S. crude supplies. West Texas Intermediate on the New York Mercantile Exchange switched over to a new contract month Friday and prices dropped 50 cents to end the week at $53.38 a barrel, up from $52.05 Tuesday -- the first trading day after the President’s Day holiday. The posted price also fell 50 cents to $49.75 a barrel. Natural gas prices on the NMEX remained below $2 per Mcf but started the week climbing 14 cents Tuesday to $1.981 per Mcf. Prices were not able to hold that gain, dropping the next three days to close with a 1.5 cent loss at $1.905 per Mcf.
Oman, Bahrain vulnerable to a potential rating downgrade due to the coronavirus: S&P Global Ratings - It’s “fair” to say that countries such as Oman and Bahrain are vulnerable to a potential rating downgrade if the coronavirus outbreak lasts longer than expected, according to the chair of sovereign ratings at a credit rating firm. That’s because the two countries have high fiscal breakeven oil prices, Frank Gill of S&P Global Ratings told CNBC’s “Capital Connection” on Tuesday. Oil prices have been under pressure due to concerns about the economic impact of the coronavirus, with both Brent and U.S. crudes down more than 10% since the beginning of the year. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has slashed global oil demand growth forecasts as the coronavirus continues to spread. For China alone, OPEC revised its demand forecast down by 0.2 million barrels a day for the first half of 2020. The first coronavirus infections surfaced in late 2019 in the Chinese city Wuhan, and the disease has since killed more than 2,000 people in China. After the Lunar New Year holiday in late January, many businesses in China extended their closures in a bid to control the virus situation. However, with regard to sovereign rating downgrades in the pipeline due to the coronavirus, Gill pointed to Middle Eastern economies instead of China. If the outbreak continues beyond March, the loss of oil demand could really affect prices, which are a “major budgetary parameter” for Gulf countries, he said, noting that the governments are already spending beyond their means. “If you exclude the investment proceeds from the sovereign wealth funds, every single Gulf economy is running pretty substantial underlying fiscal deficits,” he added. “You have pretty high breakeven oil prices,” he said, singling out Oman and Bahrain. “They do stand out.” According to IMF data released in October 2019, Oman’s fiscal breakeven oil price is projected to be $87.60 a barrel in 2020, while Bahrain’s is expected to be $91.80 a barrel. On Wednesday in Asia, oil prices were slightly higher. Brent crude was trading at $58.12 a barrel, up 0.64%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude traded around $52.46 a barrel, up 0.79%.
Russia Is Defeating The U.S. In The Middle East Oil Game - “Since [U.S. President Donald] Trump outlined the new U.S. foreign policy of not engaging in conflicts abroad unless they were directly aligned with U.S. interests [October 2019], and then effectively withdrawing from Syria and from supporting the Kurds, Russia and China have felt that they can bring forward their plans to bring Iraq within their geopolitical arc of influence,” a senior source who works closely with Iraq’s Oil Ministry told OilPrice.com last week. “They know that provided that they do not impinge on Saudi Arabia and, at a pinch the UAE and Kuwait, or launch attacks against U.S. personnel, then they can basically do whatever they want anywhere else, hence this announcement from Russia last week,” he added. The oil and gas prize for the Russians in Iraq is, of course, huge, but many in the industry do not realise that it is still underestimated. The official figures for oil are that Iraq has around 149 billion barrels of reserves (18 per cent of the Middle East total and 9 per cent of the global total) and is currently the second-largest oil supplier in OPEC, after Saudi Arabia. All of this oil coming at a mean average ‘lifting cost’ per barrel in Iraq of US$2 to US$3 per barrel, according to the IEA, at least as competitive as Saudi Arabia. For gas, the official figures are slightly less impressive, but they are likely even more underestimated than the oil figures, with Iraq having about 135 trillion cubic feet of reserves (the 12th largest in the world), mostly associated at the moment with oil fields in the supergiant fields in the south of the country. However, despite the occasional increase in reserves estimates over the past few years – extremely modest by the standards of its neighbours, incidentally – much of Iraq still remains unexplored or under-explored compared with other major oil-producing countries. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), and derived from the landmark United States Geological Survey (USGS) 2000 assessment and subsequent updates, the level of ultimately recoverable resources at that time was around 232 billion barrels of crude and natural gas liquids. Even this, though, might prove on the low side, added the IEA, as a detailed study by Petrolog around that time reached a similar figure but did not include the parts of northern Iraq in the KRG area or examination of the geological anomalies prevalent in the central and western regions of the country. Even using the much more conservative USGS number, Iraq had just a decade ago only produced around 15 per cent of its ultimately recoverable resources, compared with 23 per cent for the Middle East as a whole at that time. At that point, of the 530 potential hydrocarbon-bearing geological prospects identified by – only – geophysical means in Iraq only 113 had been drilled, with oil being found in 73 of them, a success rate of 65 per cent. Although more of these geophysically-identified sites have now been drilled many more new ones have arisen due to identification by more sophisticated analysis of seismic and historical data.
Yemen's Houthis Shoot Down Saudi Jet With Advanced Surface-To-Air Missile - The Saudi News Agency quoted the Arab Coalition spokesperson Turki Al-Malki as saying on Saturday that one of their Tornado fighter jets was shot down over northern Yemen on Friday night.“At 23:45 P.M. on Friday, February 14, 2020, a Tornado fighter plane of the Royal Saudi Air Force crashed while on a mission of close air support to units of the National Army,” Malki said.Houthi forces announced on Friday evening that their air defense troops shot down the fighter jet over the Al-Jawf Governorate after it carried out airstrikes on several sites in northern Yemen.“The air defenses shot down the coalition war plane with an advanced surface-to-air missile supported by modern technology. The sky of Yemen is not for a walk and the enemy must count a thousand time for that,” the Ansarallah-affiliated Yemeni Army (Houthi) spokesperson, Brigadier General Yahya Sare’a, said on Friday evening.The Royal Saudi Air Force Tornado aircraft "crashed" in northern al-Jawf province during an operation to support Yemeni government forces, the coalition said in a statement carried by the official Saudi Press Agency on Saturday....Separately on Saturday, Al Masirah TV quoted Houthi health officials as saying that at least 30 civilians were killed in coalition air raids in the same region that the plane had gone down. The death toll could not be independently verified. pic.twitter.com/qazcPB0ser— Yuri Lyamin (@imp_navigator) February 15, 2020The Houthis released video of the jet's downing; it appears to show a sophisticated weapon deployed.
US-backed Saudi bombing kills at least 32 civilians in Yemen -Saudi airstrikes killed at least 32 civilians while wounding another dozen on Saturday, United Nations officials reported. This latest atrocity in the long list of war crimes by the US-backed Saudi-led forces in Yemen’s five-year-old war followed a rare shootdown of a Saudi Tornado jet aircraft Friday as it was carrying out combat operations over Yemen’s disputed northern province of Al-Jawf. The strike was described by Yemenis as a “revenge” attack for the downing of the plane. Those targeted included children who had gathered around the wreckage of the aircraft as well as families in nearby homes. Medical teams reported difficulty in reaching the wounded as Saudi jets continued to circle the area, threatening a “double tap” strike against first responders. Many of the wounded were in critical condition, and the death toll is expected to rise. The strike came amid a resurgence of fighting following a brief lull that was accompanied by an agreement on a prisoner swap between the Saudi-led forces and the Houthi rebels, who control Yemen’s most populous region in the country’s north, including the capital of Sanaa. Describing the latest bombing as “shocking,” Lise Grande, the United Nations’ humanitarian coordinator for Yemen, stated: “So many people are being killed in Yemen; it’s a tragedy, and it’s unjustifiable. Under international humanitarian law, parties which resort to force are obligated to protect civilians. Five years into this conflict, and belligerents are still failing to uphold this responsibility.” While the bombing is no doubt a vicious crime against humanity, it is, after five years of such crimes, hardly a shock. Since the war began in March 2015, when the Saudi monarchy intervened in an attempt to reimpose the unelected puppet government of President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi, an estimated 100,000 Yemenis have lost their lives and hundreds of thousands more have been wounded. Saudi bombings, including against homes, hospitals, schools, buses and weddings, are blamed for 67 percent of Yemen’s civilian casualties. The Saudi monarchy and its de facto head Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman have enjoyed complete impunity in carrying out the slaughter of the Yemeni people thanks to the unstinting support from Washington, initiated under the Democratic administration of Barack Obama and continued under the Republican Donald Trump. While the United Nations Security Council—where Washington wields a veto—has imposed sanctions against the Houthi rebels, it has approved not a single resolution condemning the wholesale killings carried out by Riyadh.
UN Condemns 'Shocking' and 'Terrible' US-Backed Saudi Coalition Bombing That Killed 31 Yemeni Civilians - The United Nations and humanitarian aid groups condemned the U.S.-backed Saudi-led coalition for carrying out airstrikes Saturday that killed 31 civilians and wounded dozens more, including women and children, in Yemen's Al-Jawf province. "We share our deep condolences with the families of those killed and we pray for the speedy recovery of everyone who has been injured in these terrible strikes," Lise Grande, U.N. humanitarian coordinator for Yemen, said in a statement. "So many people are being killed in Yemen—it's a tragedy and it's unjustified. Under international humanitarian law parties which resort to force are obligated to protect civilians." "Five years into this conflict and belligerents are still failing to uphold this responsibility," added Grande. "It's shocking." Xavier Joubert, director of aid group Save the Children Yemen, demanded an investigation into the airstrikes and said nations providing the weaponry for such attacks must share the blame. The United States is the largest supplier of weapons to the Saudi regime, whose years-long assault on Yemen has helped create the world's worst humanitarian crisis. "The war shows no signs of slowing down. Yemen is a hellish place for children," said Joubert. "The reports of today indicate that once more explosive weapons make no distinction between fighters and civilians. This latest attack must be urgently and independently investigated, and perpetrators held to account." "We call on all parties to the conflict to adhere to international laws and standards, and to protect children on the ground," Joubert continued. "Those who continue to sell arms to the warring parties must realize that by supplying weapons for this war, they contribute to making atrocities like today's all too common."
“They Have Not Relented”: U.S. Maintains Support for Yemen War as Saudi Airstrike Kills 31 Civilians Democracy Now - In Yemen, 31 people were killed in U.S.-backed Saudi airstrikes over the weekend, including women and children. The strikes in the northern al-Jawf province came just hours after the Houthis said they had shot down a Saudi fighter jet in the same area. The United Nations called the drone strike “shocking.” The deadly strike follows a recent uptick in violence in northern Yemen and comes as the war there hits a five-year mark. More than 100,000 have died, and far more have been displaced, since the conflict began in 2015. On Sunday, the United Nations said the Houthis and U.S.-backed Saudi and United Arab Emirates coalition had agreed to a major prisoner swap, the first of its kind in the long-running war. We speak with Shireen Al-Adeimi, a Yemeni scholar, activist, and an assistant professor at Michigan State University.
Saudi jet 'downing' in Yemen stirs alarm over Houthi weaponry (AFP) - Claims that Yemeni rebels shot down a Saudi warplane have spotlighted the increasingly potent Huthi arsenal -- cause for alarm in Riyadh as fighting escalates amid faltering efforts to end the five-year conflict. The Iran-backed Huthi rebels said they downed the Tornado aircraft on Friday over the volatile northern province of Al-Jawf, in a setback for the Riyadh-led military coalition that has always enjoyed air supremacy in the war. The fate of the two Saudi crewmen who ejected from the plane remains unknown. The rebels, once dismissed as a ragtag militia, said they hit the jet with an "advanced surface-to-air missile", a claim that followed recent UN reports that the Houthis had received weapons bearing signs of Iranian origin. Tehran has long denied arming the rebels. Following the crash, a Huthi spokesman said Yemeni airspace was off-limits and not a "picnic" spot for its enemies. "This is definitely a cause for alarm for the coalition," Becca Wasser, a policy analyst at the US-based RAND Corporation, told AFP. "They need to plan as though this is the new normal and that the Huthis have the capability to shoot down more aircraft, which is going to affect their operations and how they plan their air missions." The coalition did not respond to AFP's request for comment. Saudi Arabia has long asserted dominance over Yemeni air space. The kingdom has faced repeated international criticism for its aerial bombing raids in Yemen that have often resulted in civilian deaths. But the rebels are countering the threat by bolstering their air defence capabilities, notably with what they call self-made surface-to-air missiles. "While the Huthis claim a self-produced missile shot down the Saudi Tornado, it remains to be seen whether that is truly the case as this has been an area where they have received Iranian assistance," said Wasser.
Houthi Missiles Target Aramco Facility Just After Pompeo Arrives In Saudi Arabia - Saudi Arabia's air defense Patriot missile systems were active at the coastal city of Yanbu in the early Friday morning hours after ballistic missiles were inbound, believed launched by Shia Houthi rebels out of Yemen. Crucially, the Red Sea city of Yanbu is site of a large state-owned Saudi Aramco oil refinery, the likely intended target given the prior Sept.14 large scale attack on Aramco facilities which was also claimed by the Houthis. Yanbu is nearly 600 miles from Yemen, meaning sophisticated missile systems were used - likely the Burkan 2 - which in the past Washington has accused Iran of supplying. Spokesman for the Saudi-led coalition, Col. Turki Al-Maliki, was cited in the Saudi Press Agency as saying the launch originated in Yemen's capital of Sanaa, but that Patriot anti-air missiles intercepted the rockets.
Trump & Erdogan Discuss Ending Unacceptable Syrian Offensive To Take Back Idlib -- On Saturday President Trump held a much anticipated and crucial phone call with his Turkish counterpart Tayyip Erdogan at a moment tensions are soaring over Idlib, and after a week of direct confrontations between the Syrian and Turkish armies left scores dead and wounded on either side. Turkey's foreign minister said the two leaders discussed the unfolding crises in Syria and Libya — both places where Turkey is controversially intervening militarily — as well as the White House's peace plan for the Israel-Palestine conflict, which Erdogan in no uncertain terms has rejected. And though few details were given, the two reportedly agreed for the resumption of US-Turkey trade talks. As expected the two condemned the Syrian Army advance into Idlib, calling the military offensive with Russian support "unacceptable". This after last week the US dispatched special envoy for the region James Jeffrey to Ankara, where the diplomat verbalized full support to "our NATO ally Turkey"."Stressing that the regime's most recent attacks are unacceptable, the president and Trump exchanged views on ways to end the crisis in Idlib without further delay," the Turkish presidency said in a statement.Turkey is worried about record-number refugee displacement as hundreds of thousands are reportedly now fleeing to the border, while Damascus and Moscow have charged Turkey with protection terrorists operating in Idlib. They expressed their desire for an immediate halt to the fighting. On the issue of Trump's 'Deal of the Century,' Erdogan reiterated during a separate remarks to reporters on Saturday:"I would like to state once again that this so-called peace plan is nothing but a dream that threatens the regional peace and tranquility,” Erdogan told reporters upon his return to Turkey after his Pakistan visit.He said Turkey would never allow for the “legitimization of invasion, annexation and destruction” of the Palestinian state and its people.Immediately after the January roll-out of the plan with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, Turkey was the first country to slam it as merely justifying “Israeli occupation and annexation of Jerusalem and the West Bank."Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu revealed some of the details of the Erdogan-Trump phone call after meeting with his Russian counterpart at the Munich Security Conference.
A 2nd Syrian Helicopter Brought Down By MANPAD In Only A Few Days -- Another Syrian military helicopter has been shot down by the jihadist insurgents now threatening western Aleppo amid fierce fighting in both Idlib and Aleppo provinces. A surface-to-air missile, likely a MANPAD, was fired on the chopper by Turkish-backed militants in the countryside of the major northern Syrian city, in the second such rare helicopter downing in only a few days.Like Tuesday's shootdown, which killed a high ranking Syrian officer along with the crew, video was released shortly after the incident. It shows a fiery mass falling from the sky moments after the anti-aircraft missile struck the chopper. At least two Syrian military members aboard were reported killed. Some analysts were quick to point out that the Syrian Army made a major blunder in flying more helicopters over the same area which just days ago witnessed a MANPAD take out a prior aircraft. Footage from the ground of the second downed Syrian regime helicopter in only few days. pic.twitter.com/QTsontmltp — Ali Özkök (@Ozkok_A) February 14, 2020Syria analyst and journalist Danny Makki observed further, "This cant be a coincidence, unless the official Turkish army is shooting down Syrian helicopters then they have clearly given the militants MANPADS." Whether Turkey or even possibly the United States supplied them, it does now appear the al-Qaeda linked fighters backed by Erdogan are now in possession of deadly Man-Portable Air-Defense Systems (MANPADS).
Turkey threatens ‘imminent’ attack on Syria’s Idlib after Russia talks - Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has warned of an "imminent" military operation in Idlib amid ceasefire talks. The threat follows recent fatal clashes. Russia's government has urged restraint. Russia and Turkey failed to reach an agreement during talks in Moscow aimed at taking steps to ease violent unrest in the Syrian province of Idlib, Russia's top diplomat said on Wednesday. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Syrian government forces, which have been undertaking an offensive in Idlib, were upholding previous agreements on the region but also reacting to provocations. Militant attacks on Syrian and Russian forces in Idlib were continuing, he said. Russia and Turkey back opposing sides in the Syrian civil war, which is nearing its ninth year, with Moscow supporting Syrian President Bashar Assad's forces and Ankara backing some rebel groups. "We unfortunately failed to reach the desired result in our talks with Russia," Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said. "Although the talks will continue, it is true that we are very far from meeting our demands at the table." The failure to reach an agreement comes amid heightened tensions. Deadly clashes earlier this month left 13 Turkish troops dead in Idlib, a northwestern province that borders Turkey. Erdogan: Attack 'imminent' On Wednesday, the Turkish leader threatened to launch a military operation in the province by the end of February to force a retreat should Syria's government fail to withdraw troops posted behind Turkish military positions. "An operation in Idlib is imminent ... We are counting down, we are making our final warnings," Erdogan told lawmakers in Turkey's parliament.
Turkey Edges Toward Direct Conflict With Russian-Backed Syria - The Moscow Times - Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Wednesday a military operation by his forces to push back a Syrian government offensive against rebels in northwest Syria was now "a matter of time" after talks with Russia failed to halt the assault. Turkish troops have already massed inside the Idlib region and more were heading to the border area, bringing NATO member Turkey and Russian-backed Syria close to the brink of direct confrontation. The Kremlin, which has supported Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's push with air strikes, said a clash between Turkish and Syrian forces would be a "worst-case scenario" and Russia would work to prevent the situation from worsening. Syrian troops supported by Russian warplanes and special forces have been battling since December to eradicate the last rebel bastions in Idlib and Aleppo provinces in what could be one of the final chapters of the nine-year-old civil war. Nearly 1 million civilians have fled from air strikes and artillery barrages towards the closed frontier, overwhelming relief agencies and alarming Turkey, which already hosts 3.6 million Syrian refugees and says it cannot handle more. Speaking to lawmakers from his ruling AK Party on Wednesday, Erdogan said Turkey was determined to make Idlib a secure zone even while talks with Moscow continued. Several rounds of diplomacy had failed to reach an agreement so far, he said. "We are entering the last days for the regime to stop its hostility in Idlib. We are making our final warnings," said Erdogan, whose country has the second-largest army in NATO.
Turkey Kills Over 50 Syrian Troops, Russian Warplanes Intervene to Halt Offensive — Fighting in Syria’s Idlib Province has escalated substantially on Thursday, with Turkish forces attacking the Syrian military claiming to have killed over 50 soldiers, and Russia ultimately sending in warplanes to stop the fight, warning Turkey away from continued action. Turkish officials said Syria had killed two Turkish soldiers who were in Idlib to “establish peace” and that their attack was in retaliation. President Erdogan has threatened strikes anywhere in Turkey over injuries to soldiers. Turkish-backed rebels were involved in the attacks, and supported by Turkish artillery strikes. Syria ultimately requested Russian help, and a Russian Su-24 launched some strikes against attacking forces. Russia also contacted Turkey and told them to stop shelling. While this particular flare-up is over, fighting looks to just be getting started. Russia called the situation a “worst case scenario,” and has demanded that Turkey stop backing terrorist groups in Idlib. Turkey has vowed they will not leave Idlib to Syria, and reiterated demands that Syria unconditionally cede the province to the mostly al-Qaeda-led rebels therein.
Turkey Requests US Jets Patrol Near Idlib To Halt Russian Air Power -It's not just Patriot anti-air defense missile systems that Turkey is requesting from Washington, apparently, in order to halt Russian air power over Idlib. A bombshell report in Middle East Eye has cited Turkish defense officials who say Turkey's government has asked the US to begin aerial patrols over southern Turkey along the border with Syria's Idlib province. This latest report comes on the heels of the Patriot missile request being confirmed, a major unexpected flip vis-à-vis the prior pivot to Moscow which saw the controversial transferal of the Russian S-400 systems. Ankara is also trying to get NATO more involved militarily after Erdogan has vowed to prevent pro-Assad forces from retaking Ildib, also amid a humanitarian crisis which could see a surge of some one million refugees toward the Turkish border. The new Middle East Eye report details: Turkey has asked the US to conduct aerial patrols in its airspace bordering the Syrian province of Idlib to show support for Ankara's ongoing military operations against forces loyal to Damascus, a Turkish official told Middle East Eye.The request was made during US Special Envoy James Jeffrey's recent visit to Ankara, where he voiced strong support to "our NATO ally Turkey" as the Idlib crisis heats up. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also reportedly pressed Trump in a phone call to send military support. "He [Trump] promised that he would sanction the regime officials, or anyone involved in attacks against the civilians. And that he would issue strong-worded statements," a top Turkish official was quoted in the report as saying. "But he didn't commit himself to anything involving the military, yet." American military leader goes rogue off script & admits Idlib is teeming with Al Qaeda linked terrorists.The official US position is against Syria & Russia who are fighting these guys.Instead, we’re siding with Turkey & considering giving it more weapons to help the “rebels.” https://t.co/vxNqduSQhY
US Engaged In Shameless, Impudent Pillage Of Wealth In Syria- Russia - Western mainstream media is once again putting Idlib at the center of their coverage, with emotive and hugely exaggerated headlines like "Bombed as they flee: A million Syrians try to escape Assad’s onslaught" — however with no mention that a US designated terrorist organization, al-Qaeda's Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, has for years brutally held Idlib territory, suppressing the civilian population. With the Syrian Army and its Russian allied force now again feeling US pressure over the ongoing offensive, the Kremlin has hit back, slamming the US for its occupation and resource plunder of Syria. Russia’s Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu while on a state visit to Rome on Tuesday charged American forces with a "shameless, impudent pillage of the wealth," according to Russian state sources. “The oil fields… are controlled by the US. There’s shameless, impudent pillage of the wealth that belongs to Syria and the Syrian people taking place,” Shoigu said. He pointed out that this resource theft combined with an extreme US sanctions regimen is creating horrific conditions among the civilian populace facing freezing winter temperatures. “Most of the people, who are now suffering in Syria, are in need of heat, hot water and electricity, which — as we understand it — come from hydrocarbons that are forbidden to be supplied there,” the minister said further.Over the past two weeks US and Russian convoys have had dangerous run-ins in Syria's northeast anytime Russian forces get too close to Syrian oil fields. Though no exchanges of fire have resulted, the two superpowers' militaries are coming dangerously close to engaging in a major incident. Meanwhile in separate statements a top Syrian official has confirmed that Russia is helping the Syrian state and its people to counter the West's economic blockade.
Tehran, Other Iranian Cities In The Cold And Dark On Suspect Power Outages - Businesses and homes alike in the Iranian city of Tehran—along with several other cities—are in the dark—and in the cold--on Monday, the spokesman for the Iran Electrical Power Industry, Mostafa Rajabi Mashhadi, said on Monday while the country runs short of natural gas, according to RadioFarda. The cause of the blackouts are unknown and have led to speculation. When power cuts make the rounds in Iran, it’s not often that it happens during the cold winter months. Tehran, too, is rarely included in power cuts or blackouts when they happen, because of security reasons. But Tehran is not exempt this time around. The emergency power cuts, which were not announced ahead of time, will be for two hours per day and will be carried out in the big cities, unless domestic gas use is cut by 10%. The power outages, along with being atypical for this time of year and extending to atypical Tehran, are suspect, according to RadioFarda, in that natural gas consumption in Iran—which is between 600 million cubic meters per day and 690 million cubic meters per day—is under the 800 million cubic meters of gas Iran is supposedly producing. Other oddities about the power cuts include the fact that Iran has been unable to get rid of some of its lower quality fuel oil that it normally sends to Iraq. This means its own power plants had to burn in recent months this lower-quality, higher-polluting fuel oil that it couldn’t sell. This has led to some speculating that power cuts have an ulterior motive: to root out the cases of massive cyberattacks that have ripped through Iran’s infrastructure since earlier this month. Some have suspicions that the source of the attacks were inside Iran. Other suspicions are that cyberattacks are behind the power outages, according to RadioFarda.
UN Says Libya Arms Embargo A Joke As Oil Export Blockade Reaches One Month -- The fighting in Libya as well as the external arms supplies fueling both sides of the conflict has become so bad that the United Nations has called an arms embargo recently in place "a joke". “The arms embargo has become a joke, we all really need to step up here,” U.N. Deputy Special Representative to Libya Stephanie Williams said this weekend at an international security conference in Berlin.“It’s complicated because there are violations by land, sea and air, but it needs to be monitored and there needs to be accountability,” Williams added, and noted further that Libya has over the past multiple months of fighting been flooded with advanced weapons. Turkey especially is now openly sending military hardware as well as national troops and mercenaries from Syria to defend the UN-backed Tripoli government against Gen. Khalifa Haftar's ongoing offensive to take the capital. A major conference last month also hosted in Berlin sought to shore up new commitments from backers on either side of the conflict to uphold the UN arms embargo. It also sought to impose a truce, which pro-Haftar forces refused to recognize from the start. At this latest summit, a frustrated German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas urged EU foreign ministers to commit to monitoring the embargo closely, and to follow through with action. “Everyone needs to know that - if they violate the embargo in future - then they violate a U.N. resolution and that this can’t remain without consequences,” Maas said, though without offering details on just how this would go enforced. Meanwhile, since January 18 a blockade of oil terminals and oil fields by groups loyal to Gen. Haftar has been in effect, which the Government of National Accord in Tripoli worries will soon cause "catastrophic financial crisis" nationwide. "The continuation of the shutdowns will result in a catastrophic financial crisis," Fayez al-Sarraj, head of the Tripoli GNA told reporters over the weekend. "Losses from the oil shutdowns have exceeded $1.4bn. The figure is increasing every day."According to Al Jazeera, "The state-run National Oil Corporation (NOC) said on Thursday crude output had dropped to 163,684 barrels per day (bpd)."
EU Will Deploy Warships Off Libya's Coast To Enforce UN Arms Embargo - Just after the EU’s foreign policy chief Joseph Borrell urged Europe to "develop an appetite for power" to better chart its own independent course in solving various international crises impacting Europe, the EU has agreed to deploy warships in order to enforce a United Nations arms embargo on the war-torn country. The EU has stressed, however, that this is not an extension of its prior controversial mission to rescue migrants and refugees in the Mediterranean: Josep Borrell, the EU’s chief diplomat, announced that 27 foreign ministers had agreed to launch a new operation with naval ships, planes and satellites in order to enforce the UN arms embargo on Libya. To counter objections that the operation could morph into a rescue mission, Borrell promised the ships would be withdrawn if they became “a pull factor” that encouraged people to attempt the risky crossing from Libya to Europe. This commitment helped lift opposition to the mission from Italy and Austria, whose governments had blocked an earlier compromise. Going all the way back to the 2011 US-NATO intervention to topple Gaddafi, the north African country has existed in a state of anarchy with multiple governments and factions vying for control, and now Benghazi-based strongman Khalif Haftar is attempting to bring the country by force under his control in his bid to seize the capital. This has set the stage for a major proxy war involving the UAE as the prime weapons supplier of Haftar, and Turkey as supplying weapons, drones, and even troops to the Tripoli Government of National Accord (GNA). Russia has also reportedly supplied Haftar's army with mercenaries from the Wagner group. The EU marine mission in the Mediterranean to monitor the arms embargo on Libya must, according to Russia, be coordinated with the UN Security Council, said Lavrov on Tuesday. Russia fears that the EU could increase pressure on Russia's support for Haftar in the future.
Libyan Pro-Haftar Forces Attack Turkish Ship Loaded With Arms At Tripoli Port - Pro-Haftar forces in Libya say they've destroyed a Turkish ship loaded with weapons and ammunition that was docked in the Port of Tripoli on Tuesday. United Nations Libya envoy Ghassan Salame also confirmed the attack amid months-long fighting between Haftar's Libyan National Army (LNA) and the UN-backed Government of National Accord GNA). Reuters reports that thick smoke could be seen billowing from the port area, though the LNA's claim to have directly hit a Turkish ship remained unconfirmed. "A Turkish ship loaded with weapons and ammunition, which docked this morning in the port of Tripoli, was destroyed," wrote the LNA's media center on Facebook. Despite the attempt of Haftar to impose a blockade on all national oil exports, which he first announced January 18, Tripoli’s sea port has remained open for food and other humanitarian supplies, according to the GNA. The latest fighting has escalated despite both sides meeting in Geneva for a second round of talks, since a summit in Berlin last month failed to establish a permanent ceasefire. Like prior meetings, LNA and GNA representatives refused to sit in the same room, thus little is expected to be secured from these new talks. Haftar has accused Tripoli and Turkey of violating a UN arms embargo on the country, and thus has told his forces that any Turkish vessel or aircraft is a target. Meanwhile, due to the now one month long blockade of oil terminals and oil fields by groups loyal to Gen. Haftar, the Tripoli government has expressed alarm that it will soon cause "catastrophic financial crisis" nationwide. "The continuation of the shutdowns will result in a catastrophic financial crisis," Fayez al-Sarraj, head of the Tripoli GNA told reporters over the weekend. "Losses from the oil shutdowns have exceeded $1.4bn. The figure is increasing every day."
In First Visit To Libya, US Ambassador Meets Only With Haftar While Ignoring Tripoli - This is hugely revealing of where Washington stands on the now nine year old Libya conflict, which has recently seen former CIA asset Gen. Khalifa Haftar attempt to force the country under his control by his months-long assault on the capital of Tripoli. US Ambassador to Libya Richard Norland, who had set up the embassy outside the country in neighboring Tunisia, for the first time this week visited the war-torn country which was thrown into chaos by the 2011 US-NATO intervention against Gaddafi. Ambassador Norland met only with Gen. Haftar, head of the Libyan National Army (LNA), in Benghazi and reportedly didn't even go to Tripoli. On paper at least, Washington still officially supports the UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli under Prime Minister Fayez al-Serraj. However, starting last April President Trump caught many in his own administration off guard when he unexpectedly thanked the renegade general for "securing Libya's oil resources" at a moment he attempted to wrest control of the country from the GNA in Tripoli. Turkey and other backers of Tripoli will no doubt take note. Erdogan is the GNA and Serraj's main military backer, and on Wednesday vowed that “if international efforts do not lead to a solution, we will support the reconciliation government until it controls the whole country.” He further stressed that “the European Union has no authority to make a decision on Libya,” after the EU announced it would send warships to enforce a UN arms embargo on the country. A US embassy statement claimed Norland met with Hafter as part of ongoing efforts to secure a ceasefire and ‘‘to reaffirm the importance of a negotiated settlement’’.
Named: 112 companies linked to illegal Israeli settlements by UN ... The United Nations Human Rights Council produced a list on Wednesday of 112 companies it has concluded have ties to illegal Israeli settlements. Ninty-four of the firms named are domiciled in Israel, the other 18 are in other states. Below is a list of all the companies named by the UN:
Israeli Burning Man-style Event Planned for West Bank Sparks Controversy - Haaretz - An initiative from Israel's "Burner" community to hold a Burning Man-style event in the West Bank's Area C is causing controversy among the festival's devotees, as the international community views the location as occupied territory. The organizers of “Dead Sea Burn” assert that their choice of venue in the West Bank's northern Dead Sea region bears no political significance. But members of Midburn, Israel's Burning Man community, have voiced opposition to holding the event without coordination with local Palestinians in a conflict zone. Israel’s Midburn association, the official representative of U.S.-based Burning Man, was established in 2012. It is modeled after Nevada's long-running Burning Man festival, with the aim of "creating a platform which will allow a communal lifestyle, creativity, art and radical self-expression," according to its official website. The association has organized main events for the community since 2014, such as a Midburn Festival in the Negev, which has attracted thousands of devoted attendees each year. But residents of Sde Boker have raised opposition to the festival in recent years, saying that the event causes serious environmental damage, health hazards and noise pollution, which has made it difficult for the association to organize the event.
Hamas Chief Uses Israeli Election to Extract a Softer Stance on Gaza - The new measures Israel enacted on Wednesday to ease conditions in Gaza are a significant achievement for Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. Sinwar, who has rarely appeared in public in recent weeks (with some rumors in Gaza suggesting that he’s fearful of an assassination attempt by Israel), had continued to exert pressure on Israel until he attained his goal. The list of measures – which Israel did not rush to publicize, in contrast to its usual trumpeting of sanctions when those are imposed – is the most far-reaching since Hamas took over theGaza Strip by force in June 2007.The most important item is the granting of an additional 2,000 work permits allowing Gazans to work in Israel, given to people defined as merchants. In practice, this is a fiction agreed upon by both sides.
There is no entrepreneurial campaign in Gaza, and the devastated economy there has not engendered 2,000 new and ambitious merchants overnight. Without saying so explicitly and under the guise of allowing the entry of merchants, political echelons and the defense establishment are starting to grant gradual legitimization to the idea of renewed employment of Gazans within Israel.
24 Killed In Brutal Terror Attack On Burkina Faso Church; Local Pastor Targeted --Gunmen killed at least 24 people and wounded 18 more during an attack on a protestant church in the village of Pansi, in the north of Burkina Faso, announced the governor of the Sahel region, Colonel Salfo Kaboré.A group of "armed terrorists" burst into the village of Pansi, in Yagha, a volatile province near the Niger border, “and attacked the peaceful local population after having identified them and separated them from non-residents,” Colonel Salfo Kabore said in a statement sent to AFP. The Sunday attack occurred during weekly church service, according to the AFP. #BurkinaFaso: At least 24 people were killed and 18 wounded in yesterday's attack on the village of #Pansi in northern Burkina Faso, the governor of the Sahel region, Colonel Salfo Kaboré, announced. https://t.co/54517hsuXI pic.twitter.com/i09eMBBGgr — NewsAspect (@newsaspect) February 17, 2020Neighbors in the nearby town of Sebba told reporters that Pansi villagers had fled there for safety.Burkina Faso is one of the poorest countries in the world, and it's also home to a brutal jihadist insurgency which is growing across the Sahel region. Since 2015, around 750 people have been killed in Burkina, and around 600,000 people have fled their homes as Christian churches have been attacked, amid other acts of Jihadi violence. The north of the country has a mixed population of Christians and Muslims, and for ages the two groups lived harmoniously side by side. But as radicalization and Islamic extremism have swept the area, their easy peace has come to an end.
20,000 flee Kazakhstan after inter-ethnic violence claims 11 lives - On February 7–8, the rural Korday District in southern Kazakhstan became a scene of violent rioting, ending in the deaths of 11 people and more than 170 injured. 30 residential buildings, 17 commercial sites, and 47 automobiles were damaged or destroyed by arson. More than 20,000 people, most of them Dungans, have fled the villages where the violence erupted. Although the events began in the village of Sortobe, the riots and destruction occurred primarily in the village of Masanchi, about 12 kilometers away. The Dungan people are a Muslim minority of Han Chinese descent. Estimates put the Dungan population living in Kazakhstan at between 51,299 and 72,000 (just 0.4 percent or less of the population). Most of them live in the southern district of Korday which borders Kyrgyzstan. About 64,000 Dungans live in Kyrgyzstan. Masanchi, located fewer then 10 km from the Kazakhstan/Kyrgyzstan border, had a population in 2009 of just 13,606 people, of whom over 90 percent were Dungans. The village is known popularly as the “unofficial Dungan capital of Kazakhstan.” Media sources based outside Kazakhstan have widely portrayed the February 7–8 events as an ethnically motivated pogrom perpetrated by ethnic Kazakhs against Dungans. According to Eurasianet, “mobs of Kazakhs attacked the village from two sides, armed with stones, metal bars and firearms. Mobs went on the rampage, beating and shooting Dungans and hurling Molotov cocktails into houses and shops, while sparing the few Kazakh-owned buildings, according to those testimonies. “Locals in both communities agreed that the spark on the day was a rumor that Dungans had beaten up an old Kazakh man. While most Kazakhs in the area insisted this story was true, Dungans expressed doubts.” The village of Manachi, according to the online newspaper, was “a picture of devastation,” and police in riot gear were patrolling the streets.
“Global Spillovers of a China Hard Landing” - That’s the title of an October 2019 International Finance Discussion Paper (Fed) which has taken on heightened relevance given current events. From the abstract: This paper analyzes the potential spillovers of acute financial stress in China, accompanied by a sharp slowdown in Chinese growth, to the rest of the world. We use three methodologies: a structural VAR, an event study, and a DSGE model. We find that severe financial stress in China would have consequential spillovers to the United States and the global economy through both real trade links and financial channels. Other EMEs, particularly commodity exporters, would be hit the hardest. The U.S. economy would be affected to a lesser degree than both EMEs and other advanced economies, and the primary channel of transmission to the U.S. could well be adverse financial spillovers through increased global risk aversion and negative equity market spillovers. From the introduction:First, the VAR estimates suggests that the China adverse scenarios would have sizable effects on global variables in the expected direction. In particular, the dollar would appreciate, U.S. long-term yields would fall, global Emerging Market Bond Index (EMBI) spreads would rise, and world trade would fall (consistent with significant increases in EME risk premiums and safe haven flows to the United States, as well as China’s importance in global trade flows). In addition, there would be a substantial fall in global oil and metals prices (consistent with China being a major source of global demand for commodities).Second, the VAR estimates also suggest that the hit to economic activity in different countries and regions would generally be significant (consistent with China’s strong trade links with other economies). More specifically, the output hit to EME commodity exporters would be about ¾ as large as the hit to China itself; to other EMEs would be about half; to advanced economies excluding the United States slightly more than a third; and only a relatively modest hit to the United States. The smaller U.S. effect reflects the U.S. economy being more closed, limited direct U.S. financial linkages to China, and greater capacity at the moment (than other advanced economies, say) to ease monetary policy to cushion the blow. SVAR estimates conditional on a Chinese 4% deviation from baseline (blue) 8.5% deviation (red) suggest a noticeable hit to US output.
Coronavirus: Investors track ships, chase rumours to get edge on Covid-19 risks - As investors crunch numbers to determine how the coronavirus will hit China's economy, hedge fund manager Nathaniel Polachek has tied much of his outlook to the fate of a ship anchored near Weihai, China. The vessel carries some 750 tonnes of lead concentrate that Mr Polachek, head of New York-based Commodity Asset Management, purchased in Greece to sell on the Chinese mainland. The coronavirus outbreak has kept the ship idling off China's coast for weeks, as movement restrictions and factory closures slow swathes of the world's second-largest economy to a crawl. Word that the ship has been allowed to dock in Weihai - an access point to one of China's main industrial hubs and home to several metal refineries and smelters - would be one signal that business activity is finally picking up, Mr Polachek said. Another encouraging sign would be an increase in air pollution levels over key Chinese manufacturing areas, which Mr Polachek monitors daily using the Air Quality Index web site. "The best indicators are… from the physical world," he said. "I want to see how long it takes for materials to get off the boat, how long it takes for me to get paid for them." Doubts over whether there are more cases in China than are being captured by official figures have fuelled a do-it-yourself approach among investors looking to determine the outbreak's trajectory and gauge its economic impact. The tools they use range from artificial intelligence and computer modelling to simple word of mouth. Investors "don't believe the stuff they've been hearing from the Chinese government", said Mr Leland Miller, head of China Beige Book International, which regularly surveys thousands of Chinese firms to gauge business conditions in the country.
China's wind energy sector faces significant impact due to the coronavirus, Wood Mackenzie warns - The new coronavirus outbreak could have a significant impact on the wind energy industry in China, according to research by Wood Mackenzie. In a statement Monday, the research and consultancy firm said the virus — officially known as COVID-19 — had “brought much of China’s wind turbine component production to a standstill in recent weeks.” While Hubei province — where the outbreak is thought to have originated — had “limited production capacity,” Wood Mackenzie noted that both quarantine and travel restriction measures would “impact an already tight supply situation for key components.” Wood Mackenzie said this represented “bad news” for wind markets in China and the U.S. — which sources wind turbine parts from China — where developers are trying to finish projects by the end of this year in order to be eligible for subsidies from the government. “Due to an already tight supply of key components such as turbine blades and main bearings before the COVID-19 outbreak, first-quarter production delays have already reduced annual output of those components by about 10%,” Xiaoyang Li, a senior consultant at Wood Mackenzie, said in a statement. As of February 16, there had been 70,548 confirmed cases of the coronavirus in China, according to its National Health Commission. More than 1,700 people have died there, authorities say. Wood Mackenzie’s Li stated that if the outbreak was brought under control in the next few months, components without pre-existing bottlenecks, like converters and generators, should be able to recover from delays in the first quarter. “In a best-case scenario, the epidemic is contained and production resumes by the end of March,” Li added. “In a bear-case, the epidemic could continue to impact the supply chain well into the middle of the year.”
Reefer crisis looms as stranded perishables rot at congested Chinese ports - China’s clogged-up container terminals and reefer plug shortage has created a logjam of perishable cargo. Key maritime gateways like Shanghai, Ningbo and Xingang are congested due to a lack of local truck capacity, with many drivers unable to return to work amid the coronavirus outbreak. As a result, reefer containers usually swiftly moved inland are stuck in terminal yards, creating a severe shortage of space and plugs for new refrigerated imports. According to Vincent Tan, CH Robinson’s Asia director of ocean services, the crisis is having a significant impact on the movement of reefers in central and north China. “The 14-day quarantine period on truck drivers who truck out of cities is severely limiting the number of vehicles available to move containers,” he told The Loadstar. “Shipping lines have now been compelled to divert, and hold, refrigerated containers at other intermediate ports, like Korea or Taiwan, until the situation in China improves.” Furthermore, he warned, perishable cargo such as fresh fruit could be abandoned at Chinese terminals because many shipments only have a 3-4 week holding period before the sell-by date. In terms of equipment, Mr Tan reckoned it would take 4-6 weeks before any impact on the global supply of reefers would start to show. “The actual impact on reefer equipment supply is still unclear, as exporters are also slowing down their shipments to China,” he explained.
More Concerns About China’s Coronavirus Economic and Political Downside - - Yves Smith - US equities are cheerily unconcerned about the possibility of the Chinese economy taking a serious hit as a result of coronavirus outbreak. But in the last week, several overlapping stories in widely-read mainstream news outlets have taken issue with the consensus, and argue that China downside scenarios are both more probable and more serious than the mainstream view. In fairness, the more sober-minded bond market is rattled, and commodities, which are heavily exposed to Chinese activity, are already wobbly. So it isn’t as if investors broadly are asleep at the wheel. From Ambrose Evans-Pritchard at the Telegraph today (we’ll be turning soon to his last week clarion call on China coronavirus risk, and the kindred assessments by other analysts): Safe-haven flight into the Swiss franc, the Japanese yen, and the dollar suggests that some large funds are battening down the hatches. The Australian dollar, a proxy for risk appetite, is plumbing depths last seen during the Lehman crisis. The US dollar index (DXY) has been rising for several weeks and is not far short of 17-year highs. This creates a self-fulfilling effect of world-wide tightening. It drains global liquidity and squeezes borrowers with $12 trillion of dollar liabilities on the offshore funding markets in Asia and Europe…. “We’re seeing all these signs of recessionary ‘risk-off’ behaviour. Something has to give here,” said Lars Christensen from Markets and Money Advisory….Few analysts have begun to ‘price’ the implication of a full-blown COVID-19 pandemic across the world… A pandemic is no longer a scientific tail-risk. It is fast becoming the central risk…We should have a clear idea whether or not the spread is unstoppable within three weeks. The US Defence Department’s Joint Staff has already activated its pandemic plan, ordering all services to brace for “widespread outbreaks” of the virus, according to Military Times. We’ll focus on China, since the immediate economic concern is how the progress of the disease and efforts to manage it hurt their citizens and companies, which affects the West directly (supply chain disruption, loss of critical supplies, damage to companies that do a lot of business in and with China) and indirectly (the hit to global demand).
Apple Warns Coronavirus Outbreak Will Affect iPhone Sales, Lower Q2 Revenue -Apple Inc. on Monday issued disappointing new revenue guidance for the fiscal second quarter, saying it doesn't expect to meet its previous forecast for revenue while the raging Covid-19 outbreak forces business in China to a virtual standstill. In January, Apple forecasted revenue of $63 billion to $67 billion for Q2. In a new guidance issued Monday, Apple said it will not meet this quarterly revenue forecast because of lower iPhone supply globally (due to the production slowdown in China), and weaker demand in China (its second largest iPhone market) as a result of Covid-19's deleterious impact on business. Apple still assembles more than half its iPhones and other devices in China. Covid-19, which erupted into the open in December 2019, forced Apple to temporarily halt device production and close retail stores in China for much of January. Some Apple retail stores reopened in China Monday but most Chinese are apparently staying indoors to avoid infection. In its revised guidance, Apple admitted work is starting to resume around China but it's still experiencing a slower return to normal conditions than it had anticipated. As a result, Apple does not expect to meet the revenue guidance it provided for the March quarter due to two main factors. The first is worldwide iPhone supply will be "temporarily constrained." Apple noted its iPhone manufacturing partner sites are located outside Hubei Province, epicenter for the Covid-19 outbreak. It said all its facilities have reopened but "are ramping up more slowly than we had anticipated."
With Half Of China Locked Up, Car Sales Plunge 92% - Car sales in China for the first two weeks in February are down 92% from a year ago. When you are locked in your home for weeks, with no income, and people are dying in the streets, guess what happens to retail sales. Bloomberg reports China Car Sales Tumble 92% in First Half of February on Virus China car sales plunged 92% during the first two weeks of February in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak, according to the China Passenger Car Association. It was even worse in the first week, with nationwide sales tumbling 96% to a daily average of only 811 units, PCA said in a report released earlier this week. Deliveries this month may slump by about 70%, resulting in a 40% drop in the first two months of 2020, it said. The figures exclude minivans. The situation is expected to improve in the third week of February compared with the start of the month, PCA Secretary General Cui Dongshu said in an interview on Friday.The China Passenger Car Association said:“Very few dealerships opened in the first weeks of February and they have had very little customer traffic.”CPCA Secretary General Cui Dongshu said in his report: "There was barely anybody at car dealers in the first week of February as most people stayed at home." From here, down 50% or even 90% is an "improvement"People have had no income for weeks.I highly doubt buying cars is on their minds. From an economic standpoint, January saw the Largest Shipping Decline Since 2009 and That's Before Coronavirus impact hit.Supply chain disruptions have barely started. It is impossible to estimate the full impact as long as cases are spreading. Worse yet, cases are exponentially rising outside of China.
Chinese Cities Begin Subsidizing Car Purchases To Resurrect Auto Market From The Dead - As nearly the entire country of China remains on lockdown - and the country's auto industry, which was already mired in recession prior to the coronavirus fiasco, gets thrashed even further - some Chinese cities are doing what governments do best: inefficiently throwing money they don't have at their problems. The Chinese city of Foshan is the first in what we guess is going to be a long line of cities to start subsidizing car purchases, according to a Bloomberg report out Monday. Consumers who trade in old models are going to be given 3,000 yuan (about $430 USD) of subsidies. Buyers of new vehicles without trade ins will be entitled to 2,000 yuan. The move comes after President Xi Jinping has urged local officials to help boost auto sales. Recall, we wrote just days ago that auto sales in China were crushed in January, declining 20.2% on a year over year basis, according to the government-backed China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. The country sold 1.94 million vehicles, according to the CAAM. The decline is attributable, obviously, to the coronavirus outbreak in the country, combined with the lunar new year falling in late January, as opposed to early February, this year. And, unfortunately, there is literally no reason for optimism in February, as it was the end of January and early February when China was placed essentially on a full lockdown due to the outbreak of the virus.
Chinese Companies Say They Can’t Afford to Pay Workers Now - A growing number of China’s private companies have cut wages, delayed paychecks or stopped paying staff completely, saying that the economic toll of the coronavirus has left them unable to cover their labor costs. To slow the spread of the virus that’s claimed more than 2,000 lives, Chinese authorities and big employers have encouraged people to stay home. Shopping malls and restaurants are empty; amusement parks and theaters are closed; non-essential travel is all but forbidden. What’s good for containment has been lousy for business. With classes canceled at a coding-and-robotics school in Hangzhou, employees will lose 30% to 50% of their wages. The Lionsgate Entertainment World theme park in Zhuhai is closed, and workers have been told to use up their paid vacation time and get ready for unpaid leave. “A week of unpaid leave is very painful,” said Jason Lam, 32, who was furloughed from his job as a chef in a high-end restaurant in Hong Kong’s Tsim Sha Tsui neighborhood. “I don’t have enough income to cover my spending this month.” Across China, companies are telling workers that there’s no money for them -- or that they shouldn’t have to pay full salaries to quarantined employees who don’t come to work. It’s too soon to say how many people have lost wages as a result of the outbreak, but in a survey of more than 9,500 workers by Chinese recruitment website Zhaopin, more than one-third said they were aware it was a possibility. The salary freezes are further evidence of the economic hit to China’s volatile private sector -- the fastest growing part of the world’s second-biggest economy -- and among small firms especially. It also suggests the stress will extend beyond the health risks to the financial pain that comes with job cuts and salary instability. Unsurprisingly, hiring has all but ground to a halt: Zhaopin estimates the number of job resumes submitted in the first week after the January outbreak was down 83% from a year earlier. “The coronavirus may hit Chinese consumption harder than SARS 17 years ago,” said Chang Shu, Chief Asia Economist for Bloomberg Intelligence. “And SARS walloped consumption.”
13,000 Missing Flights: The Global Consequences of the Coronavirus - New York Times - Thousands of planes criss-cross China every day, but that number has fallen sharply as flights are canceled to help combat the coronavirus.The slowdown in air travel has started to spread to popular destinations for Chinese travelers, like Japan and South Korea.It is, in part, a response to fears that the virus could become a pandemic. In Europe, 47 people in nine countries have been infected so far.The decline poses economic risks, too, as China is a major source of tourism to countries like the United States. The disappearance of tens of thousands of flights from China’s skies in recent weeks points to how the coronavirus has hobbled a nation.The flight suspensions started to mount late last month as countries and airlines sharply limited service in response to the accelerating spread of the virus, which as of Friday has infected at least 76,000 people and killed more than 2,200, most of them in China.Within just three weeks — from Jan. 23 to Feb. 13 — the number of daily departures and arrivals for domestic and international flights dropped to just 2,004, from 15,072, according to Flightradar24, an industry data firm. Over 13,000 flights a day, lost to a crisis. Restrictive measures adopted by China helped to delay the spread of the virus to other countries by two to three weeks, the World Health Organization said this week. Officials in China closed off Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak, on Jan. 23, and began canceling train, bus and airline travel; closing schools and factories; and pressuring residents to stay home around the country.But China’s increasing isolation from the world could have lasting economic consequences.When tourists stop showing up to the temples in Kyoto or the malls in Hong Kong or the beaches in Thailand, their absence is felt. Chinese travelers account for about a fifth of all tourism spending, more than any other country, according to the U.N.’s World Tourism Organization. In 2018, Chinese residents spent $277 billion abroad, according to the U.N., or nearly twice as much as residents of the United States. It’s still too early to tell what the overall impact will be, but Wall Street firms, analysts and economists have been trying to calculate the costs. As China struggles to reopen for business, a range of companies have warned that the outbreak may weigh on their financial performance. Japan, whose economy had already been teetering,is facing a possible recession. Oxford Economics said in a new report that, in a worst-case scenario, the outbreak could cut $1.1 trillion in global output. If the coronavirus crisis is anything like the SARS outbreak in the early 2000s, it could eliminate $29 billion in global airline revenue this year, resulting in a small industry contraction, the International Air Transport Association said on Thursday. The SARS outbreak wiped out about $6 billion in annual revenue for airlines in that part of the world and it took nine months for international passenger traffic to recover, the association said last month. But the coronavirus has so far proved more lethal, more widespread and more damaging to flight traffic in China, which today plays a far bigger role in global travel than it did two decades ago.
Coronavirus: Stranded by Manila’s travel ban, Hong Kong domestic workers face financial havoc and an uncertain future - Mimi Rios has to pay 5,000 Philippine pesos (HK$768) for her son’s college exam fee this week – a small fortune she can only afford thanks to her job as a Hong Kong domestic worker. But she is one of many migrant workers facing an uncertain financial future after Manila imposed a ban on travellers from the city over the deadly coronavirus outbreak, leaving them stranded and anxious.Over 73,000 people in over two dozen countries have been infected with the novel virus – known as Covid-19 – which was first detected in the Chinese province of Hubei. Among them have been over 1,800 recorded deaths including one in the Philippines, prompting President Rodrigo Duturte to extend an entry ban to all visitors from China, Hong Kong and Macau.
“I’m so worried because I don’t have any income,” Rios, 48, told HKFP. “This is a basic necessity because all of my income is for my children. What if I can’t go back? How am I going to support my family?”Hong Kong is home to 380,274 foreign domestic workers, according to government statistics – more than half of whom are from the Philippines. Many make the momentous decision to move in search of higher wages to support their loved ones, spending months apart while sending cash home. But with the uncertainty of the travel ban, domestic workers like Rios have been forced to count their pennies.“I’m scared, of course. In the Philippines, it’s very difficult to find a job,” she said. “For now, I can still pay [college fees] but in the coming weeks – no. I don’t know where to get the money. Maybe I can ask for an advance from my employer, but I’m not working, so I don’t know how to ask them for it.”The mother of three said she is wracked with fear that if the ban continues, her employer will find another domestic worker – a prospect which will deal a devastating blow to her family’s financial security.“I am worried my boss will replace me because they still need our services,” she said, though her employer has vowed to wait for now.
I Have No Idea What To Do Now - South Korean & Japanese Firms Screwed By Shortage Of Chinese Migrant Workers - Since COVID-19 went global just over two weeks ago, we've spent a lot of time discussing how China's economic shutdown is going to impact the global economy. But by focusing on giant companies like GM and Foxconn, we've maybe overlooked some of the little people.People like the millions of Chinese migrant workers who occupy unskilled and skilled jobs in South Korea and Japan. Many companies in agriculture and construction employ young Chinese 'technical interns' to compensate for serious labor shortages. These workers effectively form the base of a transnational supply chain. And without workers, the agricultural sector could be in a serious bind as the spring and summer approach.In a story published Friday, the Nikkei Asian Review offers a glimpse into the world of migrant workers in Japan and South Korea (the paper essentially caters to English speakers in East Asia outside mainland China). As Nikkei reminds us, South Korea's economy has experienced a serious backlash from the global resurgence of protectionism and mercantilist trade policies. These changes have disrupted trade and global supply chains across Asia, creating winners and losers (Vietnam has often been cited as a beneficiary of President Trump's antagonism of Beijing), and South Korea is an example of a fast-growing economy that has been upended. Some economists have gone so far as to argue that it could be the 'canary in the coal mine' for the global economy if trade continues to decline.
US Firms In China Suffering Severe Shortages Of Workers, Warn Virus Impact Hitting Supply Chains -- The global supply chain Armageddon is happening. The economies of the world are more interconnected than ever. There are many 'single points of failure' in these complex and global operations, of which many of them originate in China. A new poll via Shanghai's American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) discovered that 50% of US firms operating in China say shutdowns of factories have impacted their global operations due to the Covid-19 outbreak, reported Reuters.About 78% of these firms warn that their staffing is currently short at the moment, which would prevent the resumption of full production, leading to massive shortages of products in the next several months for Western markets. Many of these companies, about 109 in total, have operations in Shanghai, Suzhou, Nanjing, and across the Yangtze River Delta, are regions currently experiencing mass quarantine of citizens, industrial hubs shuttered, and transportation networks halted. "The biggest problem is the lack of workers as they are subjected to travel restrictions and quarantines, the number one and number two problems identified in the survey. Anyone coming from outside the immediate area undergoes a 14-day quarantine," said AmCham President Ker Gibbs. "Therefore, most factories have a severe shortage of workers, even after they are allowed to open. This is going to have a severe impact on global supply chains that are only beginning to show up." As we noted earlier this month, many companies were slated for last Monday to resume production, with full production expected by the end of this month. However, that's likely not going to happen, throwing much of the world's complex supply chains into chaos. The economic impact of shutting down major industrial hubs in China with more than 400 million people in quarantine, some reports actually indicate the total could be 700 million, is generating a massive shock that could tilt the global economy into recession. These disruptions will cause world trade growth to plunge. Already, recession bells are ringing in Japan and Singapore, as it appears, these two countries are on the brink of disaster. As we noted on Sunday night, the world is witnessing the "ugly end of globalization." Trade war and virus impacts on global supply chains have sent de-globalization into hyperdrive and could trigger the next worldwide recession.
Supply Chains and Factory Openings: An AmCham Shanghai Mini-Survey - The American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai has just conducted a survey of member companies with manufacturing operations in Shanghai, Suzhou, Nanjing and the wider Yangtze River Delta. The survey was in the field from February 11-14 with 109 members responding. The purpose of the survey is to provide a clear picture of the operating environment as companies begin to re-open. In addition, AmCham was seeking to provide helpful feedback to the local and provincial government on the re-opening process. Survey Highlights:
- 48% of companies report their global operations are already impacted by the shutdown
- 78% of companies do not have sufficient staff to run a full production line
- 41% of companies say a lack of staff is their biggest challenge in the next 2-4 weeks; 30% of companies say logistics issues will be their biggest concern
- Over the next few months, 58% of companies expect demand for their output to be lower than normal
- 38% of companies do not have sufficient masks/other supplies to protect their staff from coronavirus infection
- 35% of companies ranked a clearer explanation of requirements as the most important thing government officials could do to speed up factory opening approvals
Which Supply Chains Are Most At Risk- The Answer In One Chart - In a report looking at the impact of Chinese factory shutdowns on the US consumer, Goldman's Spencer Hill first looks at historical precedent and finds that a somewhat similar supply shock emerged in the winter 2014-15—a four-month labor dispute affecting West Coast ports— which appeared to meaningfully affect retail spending on consumer goods in the first quarter of 2015 (though snowy weather was likely a factor as well). This is shown in the chart below. Indeed, the March 2015 Beige Book noted that consumer spending in the San Francisco Fed district would have been stronger "if not for delays receiving merchandise caused by labor disputes at West Coast ports."Extrapolating this historical pattern, Goldman notes that "long shipping times to the US (generally 1 month or more by sea) imply the supply-chain effects of Chinese production shortfalls may not fully materialize until future quarters—at which point above-trend Chinese production or import substitution from other counties could offset some of the impact." However, analyzing granular international trade data from the Census Bureau, Goldman finds that nearly a third of Chinese products arrive by air (by value, including over 75% of telecom hardware), with these goods representing 3.6% of US retail sales and just under 1% of personal consumption expenditures. The composition of these products (and their wholesale value) are shown in the left panel of the chart below, and represent the sector most likely to be impacted as China remains paralyzed. Unsurprisingly, airfreight imports are skewed towards high-value, light-weight products such as smartphones, laptops, and consumer electronics, representing a perfect storm for a company such as Apple which is reliant on all three. Additionally, a significant share of apparel and footwear (10%) also arrives from China by plane. To summarize, here are the sectors more at risk from a continued crunch across Chinese factories:
Key Apple Supplier Hynix Tells 800 Workers To Stay Home After Trainee Contracts Virus - Chipmaker SK Hynix, a key Apple supplier, reported Thursday that a trainee tested positive for Covid-19 at its Icheon, South Korea, facility, reported Reuters.Hynix told 800 employees on Thursday not to return to work and conduct self-quarantining at their homes as a prevention measure to stop the spread of the deadly virus.Hynix is one of the top chipmakers in the world and is a major supplier to Apple and Huawei.A Hynix spokesperson said the 800 employees represent .045% of its workforce in Icheon.A source told Reuters that another employee also had symptoms of the virus but tested negative. A second test is expected in the coming days. As a precautionary measure, the chipmaker is expected to close its training facility and hospital in Icheon by the end of the week to prevent further transmission of the virus.On Wednesday, South Korea reported its first death of the virus, with new cases totaling 104.The epicenter of new cases has been in the city of Daegu, which is a little over 110 miles from Hynix's Icheon facility. On Monday, Apple issued a statement admitting it does "not expect to meet the revenue guidance" for 1Q due to production woes at its assembly plants.Foxconn, the main iPhone assembler, is currently operating at 30% to 50% of capacity and will be constrained through April. There's a lot of obstacles, from labor shortages to logistics transportation that has been unresolved because the virus has shut down two-thirds of China's economy. A significant concern that lingers for Apple, and its intricate network of suppliers in China and across Asia, is if the virus will be contained in the coming weeks. If not, production woes could hit suppliers, like Samsung Electronics, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, and SK Hynix.Reuters noted via a source with direct knowledge that some Apple suppliers are already starting to develop production issues in China. "If one component factory stays closed and they're the only supplier, then everyone has to stop and wait. And if there are two suppliers and one is shut down, then we need the other to do more," the source said.
Adidas' China Business Activity Crashes 85% Due To Virus Shock -- Under Armour was the first apparel company to warn the Covid-19 outbreak in China would have a negative impact on sales in 1Q. The Baltimore-based apparel company said last week that the industry as a whole would be damaged. One week later, German sportswear maker Adidas has warned the virus outbreak across China, forcing dozens of cities to close with 400-700 million people in quarantine would severely impact sales in 1Q. Adidas generates more than a third of its sales in Asia, which has been a significant growth market for the apparel company in the last decade. The region is also home to factories of the company that could still be shuttered.Adidas expects lower shopping traffic for mainland China, South Korea, Japan, and other Asia Pacific countries, reported Reuters.It said mainland China sales dropped 85% year-on-year over the Lunar New Year holiday as many of its 12,000 franchise and 500 corporate stores were closed for virus containment purposes. There's no word on the status of the stores until next month.
Covid-19 Triggers Global Luxury Bust - The impact of Covid-19 on supply chains has been tremendous. Uncertainty across the global economy is building as China remains in economic paralysis. The luxury fashion industry is suffering its most significant "shock" since the 2008 financial crisis, reported the Financial Times. Our angle in this piece is to asses which luxury brand companies are most exposed/dependent on China. Many of these firms have complex operations in the country, from manufacturing facilities to brick and mortar stores to e-commerce platforms. Chinese consumers accounted for 40% of $303 billion spent on luxury goods globally last year. The virus outbreak has also disrupted complex supply chains for mid-market apparel brands, like Under Armour, Adidas, and Puma, warning about collapsing demand and factory shutdown woes. LVMH, Kering, and Richemont are luxury brands that are some of the least exposed to China because their manufacturing facilities are outside the country. However, Luca Solca, a luxury goods analyst at Bernstein, said it doesn't matter where luxury brands are making their products, the whole demand story in China has collapsed. Kering, the owner of Gucci, warned earlier this month that the virus outbreak in China could damage sales in the first quarter. A Moody's report this week showed US-listed luxury brands, Coach and Kate Spade owner Tapestry, have increased their market exposure to China in recent years to gain access to a robust market, allowing their revenues to increase far faster than industry norms. That strategy today is likely to have backfired. Fashion brands from Hennes & Mauritz, Next of the UK, and Tory Burch, have built factories in China to take advantage of inexpensive silk, fabrics, and cotton, along with lower labor costs, are now experiencing supply chain disruptions that could lead to product shortages in the months ahead. The National Chamber for Italian Fashion warned earlier this week that the virus impact in China would lead to a $108 million drop in Italian exports in the first quarter because Chinese demand has fallen. If consumption remains depressed, then luxury exports to China could drop by a whopping $250 million in 1H20. A top executive at Shanghai's luxury shopping mall Plaza 66 said the mall had been deserted this month. Stores such as Cartier and Tiffany's have been shuttered.
After Mass Chicken Cull, China Approves Live Poultry From US - The Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) of China has approved the import of live chickens from the US after farmers across the country were ordered to cull tens of millions of chickens because of the Covid-19 outbreak. The MOA had banned poultry meat imports from the US in 2015 due to avian influenza threats. As a concession for the phase one trade deal, China had lifted poultry meat import bans and now has allowed the import of live chickens, reported the Financial Times. Beijing allowing the MOA to approve the import of live chickens is mostly because the mass culling has led to a sharp increase in prices. At the moment, China isn't just facing a shortage of food, but also an economic crisis, and couple both of those together, the real threat of protests and riots in many cities, some larger than NYC, could be nearing. "There is no question China's chicken population will fall sharply in the coming months," said Qiu Cong of Jinghai Poultry Industry Group. "The chicks are gone and farmers are struggling to make ends meet."A report by Wang Zhongqiang, a former director at the China Animal Husbandry Association, and Ning Zhonghua, a professor at China Agricultural University, said farmers had culled upwards of 100 million young chickens since the virus broke out. Though the figure is approximately 1% of China's annual production of 9.3 billion chickens, it's currently having an impact on prices. On top of this all, farmers culled 50% of the country's pig herd last year on the rapid spread of the African swine fever virus. Darin Friedrichs, a Shanghai-based commodity analyst at INTL FCStone, said meat prices in China would remain high for the next quarter while new sourcing is seen. Friedrichs added that shortages could persist in the weeks ahead. Charoen Pokphand Group, a top animal feed maker with factories in Hubei, the epicenter of the Covid-19 outbreak, said its supplies are running low. "Freight traffic has collapsed in Hubei," the company said. "There are roadblocks everywhere." China allowing imports of live chickens from the US is a positive for the Trump administration but won't have a significant impact on reaching the $200 billion hard targets of goods the country must purchase over the next two years.
Supply Chain Chaos Unfolds At Major Chinese Ports As Frozen Meat Containers Pile Up - New evidence from Bloomberg reveals cracking global supply chains are fast emerging at major Chinese ports with thousands of containers of frozen meat piling up with nowhere to go. The Covid19 outbreak will remain a dominant issue for 1Q as supply chain shocks are being felt by multinationals on either side of the hemisphere. Sources told Bloomberg that containers of frozen pork, chicken, and beef (mostly from South America, Europe, and the US) are piling up at Tianjin, Shanghai, and Ningbo ports because of the lack of truck drivers and many transportation networks remain closed. Seaports in China are quickly running out of room to house the containers and cannot provide enough electricity points to keep existing containers cold. This has forced many vessels to be rerouted to other destinations. It's clear that a logistical nightmare is unfolding as two-thirds of the Chinese economy has effectively shut down much of its production capacity, producing a massive "demand shock." The impact on the global economy is already dragging down world trade and could force the World Trade Organization (WTO) to slash economic growth forecasts for the year. The Chinese economy constitutes about 20% of global GDP, and supply chain disruptions across China could cause a cascading effect that could tilt the world into recession. But it's not just frozen meats piling up at Chinese ports or a crude glut developing. There's a high risk that product shortages to Western countries could be 60-90 days out. Alibaba Group's CEO Daniel Zhang warned last week that the supply chain disruption, or "shock," is a "black swan event" for the global economy. The "black swan" warning was also repeated by Freeport-McMoRan CEO Richard Adkerson several weeks ago after he said the outbreak of the virus in China is a "real black swan event." China's economy is at a standstill and could trigger the next economic crisis, not seen since 2008.
HSBC Announces Mass Job Cuts, Huge Write-Down, Asset Sales, Halt of Share Buybacks. Warns of Coronavirus Impact on Credit Losses & Revenues in China & Hong Kong - Global banking behemoth HSBC’s net profit slumped 53% in 2019, to $5.97 billion, after the lender announced a $7.3 billion write-off to reflect weakened conditions in global banking and markets, and European commercial banking. Its shares dropped 6% in London and are now down 25% from a peak in January 2018. Many of the bank’s problems originated in Europe, where the ECB’s negative-interest-rate policy is decimating even large Eurozone banks’ ability to turn a profit. HSBC’s write-down in the 4th quarter resulted in a pre-tax loss of $4.65 billion in the bank’s European business. In the U.S., where lower interest rates also took a toll on the group’s performance, revenue shrank 3%, to $4.7 billion, and adjusted profits before taxes fell 39% to $600 million. In a bid to reverse this trend, HSBC will embark on an ambitious global restructuring program that will see it withdraw even further from certain markets. The number of countries it operates in has already dwindled from 87 in 2011 to just over 50 today, spurring HSBC to eventually ditch its slogan, “the world’s local bank.” The number will keep falling as it doubles down on its Asian pivot. The bank also plans to slash around 15% of its global workforce over the next two years, which would amount to 35,000 job cuts, bringing its workforce down to about 200,000 people, in the hope of reducing operating costs by just over $4 billion. “This represents one of the deepest restructuring and simplification programs in our history,” said interim CEO Noel Quinn. Quinn said some of the job cuts would occur through natural attrition as existing employees leave HSBC of their own volition. But its under-performing investment bank is likely to suffer a large number of the cuts. So, too, are the bank’s European operations, where it aims to reduce costs by 25%. It’s not yet clear how many jobs could be on the line in its domestic UK market where the bank employs some 40,000 people. Workers in the U.S. also face significant job losses amid HSBC’s planned closure of around a third of its 224 branches there. The bank also plans to shed $100 billion of assets by 2022, with the stated goal of keeping pace with its sharper, nimbler, more focused competitors. HSBC will also suspend share buybacks for the next two years to pay for the restructuring costs. In this climate, markets forgive and forget anything except the suspension of share buybacks. The announcement of cutting 35,000 jobs would have normally boosted shares, as even massive write-offs are ignored. But the suspension of share buybacks is toxic. While HSBC blames the bulk of its poor performance on mature markets in Europe and North America, with their low or negative interest rates, it’s in its most important market of all, Hong Kong and mainland China, where it faces the biggest headwinds and risks. HSBC’s headquarters may be based in London but it’s in Hong Kong where the lion’s share of its money is made.
Australia, South Korea, Brazil Are the Major Economies Most Exposed to China Trade - China’s first-quarter GDP growth could slow to 4.5% year on year -- a record low -- because of the coronavirus, according to Bloomberg Economics’ scenario analysis. If that happens, a period of weaker imports will transmit the shock to trade partners. Looking at exports to China as a share of total exports, the major economies with the highest exposure are Australia, South Korea and Brazil.
Lift China tourism ban ‘within weeks’ to save jobs - The Morrison government should lift the China travel ban within weeks to stem the economic damage from the coronavirus on the multibillion-dollar tourism sector, according to a peak industry group.As the tourism sector calls for the Coalition to double its financial assistance following the double whammy of bushfires and coronavirus, Australian Tourism Industry Council executive director Simon Westaway said lifting the travel ban as soon as possible was also on their wishlist."There is great uncertainty about when they will be reopened, but we do need to be on the front foot," Mr Westaway told The Australian Financial Review."At some point they will need to be re-opened for a whole lot of social and economic reasons. We have to be able to position ourselves to get back into the international market because it's critical for our industry, which is so reliant on this trade."Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced on Friday the government would extend the travel ban on Chinese nationals for another week as it keeps an eye on the spread of the deadly disease.But with the tourism industry losing an estimated $1 billion a month from the Chinese tourist ban, there are growing calls for it to be lifted sooner rather than later as some businesses struggle to stay afloat.China is Australia's number one tourism market, delivering 1.4 million visitors a year and contributing about $12 billion annually to the economy.Mr Westaway said the tourism industry understood the government was dealing with a public health issue first and foremost, but the economic damage from the coronavirus – which has also hit the education industry hard – was becoming very serious.He said Australia needed to get back on the front foot because countries around the world would be working hard to woo back Chinese tourists – including China, which would want to boost its own domestic tourism industry. "The tourism industry is front and centre of this and we are copping the brunt," he said.
Covid-19: Indian pharma catches a cold - The coronavirus outbreak and the resulting factory shutdown in China has led to a supply crunch in the Indian pharmaceutical sector and prices of some drugs have gone up. According to media reports the price of paracetamol – a common drug used to treat many conditions including headache, cold, and fevers, among others – has risen by 40%, while the cost of azithromycin, an antibiotic used for curing various bacterial infections, has spiked by 70%.Industry experts feel the supply crunch will worsen if factories don’t start functioning by the first week of next month. India depends on China for 80% of its requirement of active pharmaceutical ingredients. So, the supply disruption is expected to lead to increased production costs in India. Many businesses in China came to a standstill amid restrictions on the movement of people and commodities. The virus-hit Hubei province and Shandong account for around a quarter of the raw materials supplied to India and if the factory shutdown is prolonged it could have a cascading effect on the pharma industry. The Indian pharmaceutical industry is concerned that stocks of active ingredients for drugs like paracetamol, ibuprofen, could last for 15 days, while stocks for other drugs could last for two to three months. A government panel wants Indian states to take action against hoarders and entities or people creating an artificial shortage of essential drugs. India is one of the largest suppliers of generic drugs and has numerous homegrown pharmaceutical industries, 12% of which cater to the US market. The federal government is also considering imposing an export ban on 12 essential drugs including antibiotics, vitamins, and hormones, to ensure that there is no shortage of drugs in the country.
Fiat Chrysler To Shut Serbia Plant As Covid-19-Shock Paralyzes Global Supply Chains - It's certainly plausible that the global economy is in the early stages of grinding to a halt. Already, we've noted that two-thirds of China's economy is offline, with major industrial hubs idle and 400 million people quarantined. The next phase of the supply chain chaos is to spread to regions that are overly reliant on Chinese parts for assembly, such as a Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV plant in Serbia. Bloomberg reports Friday morning that the plant is expected to halt operations of its assembly line because of the lack of parts from China as the Covid-19 outbreak worsens.Turin, Italy-based automaker's Kragujevac factory in Serbia, which assembles the Fiat 500L, has to bring its production line to a halt due to lack of audio-system and other electric parts sourced from China.We reported on Feb 6 that Fiat Chrysler was expected to close the plant if the virus continued to spread.Four of the automaker's suppliers have been impacted by China's decision to shut down much of its industrial sector as part of a quarantine that's expected to take a massive chunk out of GDP growth in the first half. Fiat Chrysler CEO Mike Manley said four of the company's suppliers in China had already been affected by the outbreak, including one "critical" maker of parts putting European production at risk.
Thousands Ordered To Work From Home As Experts Warn Japan Is "On The Cusp Of A Large Outbreak" - With half of China's population facing some level of travel restriction due to the coronavirus outbreak, the Politburo's attempt to get the country back to work has been slow going and fraught with setbacks. Much of the coverage so far has lingered on Apple's supply woes and warnings by companies as diverse as automakers and textiles firms about supply chain disruptions tied to factory closures in China. But China isn't the only country facing serious economic blowback from the outbreak. Tens of thousands of professional workers in Japan have been asked to work from home in a government-supported policy to contain a possible outbreak in Tokyo. With 66 confirmed cases outside the 542 infected aboard the 'Diamond Princess', Japan has the largest number of cases outside China. As the government advises people to avoid crowded area, many companies have instructed employees to either work from home or minimize their time in-office. According to Nikkei, they include: Soy, Fujitsu, Toshiba, Takeda, NEC, KDDI and SoftBank. To keep employees out of large crowds, Sony urged staffers Tuesday to telework and avoid commuting during rush hour. It is suspending its usual 10-day monthly cap for working from home. For those who must physically be on-site, Sony is offering a flexible schedule with shorter mandatory hours of noon to 3:30 p.m., compared with the usual start time of 9:30 a.m. Bypassing rush-hour commutes will minimize the risk of contracting the coronavirus, the thinking goes. Fujitsu is letting employees who are pregnant or have underlying health conditions to work from home for as many full days as needed, scrapping its usual weekly and monthly limits. Toshiba told all subsidiaries Tuesday to introduce telecommuting to all workers. Takeda also urged its 5,200-plus workers to stay off and avoid commute during rush hour if they must come in at all. Among other companies advocating telework are NEC, KDDI and SoftBank Corp.
Tokyo Olympics organisers says there is no ‘Plan B’ for 2020 summer games amid coronavirus fears Tokyo Olympic organisers and the International Olympic Committee (IOC) said there is no ‘Plan B’ for the upcoming summer games despite growing fears that the coronavirus could impact the event, which are set to begin in July, the Associated Press reported. Speaking at a press conference Friday, the organisers took 11 questions, all of which were related to the virus, athletes and fans coming in from China, and the continuation of the planned events. “Certainly the advice we’ve received externally from the WHO [World Health Organisation] is that there’s no case for any contingency plans or cancelling the games or moving the games,” IOC inspection team head John Coates said during the news conference, CBS Sports reported. Coates also claimed he is “100% confident” that the Olympic games will continue as scheduled. “It is meaningless to predict a timing when [the coronavirus] may come to an end,” former regional director of the WHO and an infectious disease expert from Japan Shigeru Omi told the Associated Press separate from the news conference on Thursday. “We should assume that the virus has already been spreading in Japan. People should understand that we cannot only rely on border controls to prevent the spread of the disease.” However, CEO of the Tokyo Olympics Toshiro Muto said on February 4 at a meeting with International Paralympic Committee officials that he was “seriously worried” about the impact the coronavirus could have on the “momentum towards the games,” the Associated Press reported. Several qualifying events have already been cancelled or moved because of the virus, CNN reported. Asia and Oceanian region’s qualifying boxing event has been cancelled, and the Asian Football Confederation’s women’s football qualifiers has been moved from Wuhan, the epicentre of the outbreak, to Nanjing.
Japan Unexpectedly Reports Terrible GDP As It Slides Into Recession -- One look at the latest GDP print out of Japan, and one would think the country's economy was already being ravaged by the coronavirus: at -1.6% Q/Q and a whopping -6.3% annualized - nearly double the 3.8% estimated drop - this was the second worst GDP print since the financial crisis and the second-worst quarter of the Shinzo Abe era, surpassing even the drop in the aftermath of the Fukushima disaster. Of course, the latest plunge in Japan's GDP has nothing to do with the coronavirus as it took place in Q4, and the drop was largely a byproduct of the sale tax hike, which led to a similar collapse in Q2 2014 GDP, following the first such tax hike.One look at the GDP components confirms that the plunge was largely the result of collapsing consumption, with Houshehold Consumption plunging at an 11.5% annualized pace, the second biggest drop that Private Demand plummeted at an -11.1% annualized basis... ... the second worst on record, and also just behind the -18.1% drop recorded after the first sales tax hike in 2014.It wasn't just households who retrenched, however, and as the following breakdown from Japan's cabinet office reveals, in Q4, Japan's capex fell fore the first time in 3 quarters, dragged down by construction and production machinery. Finally, the economic misery was complete as a result of a second consecutive drop in exports led by cars, as the global automotive sector remains mired in the deepest recession since the financial crisis.
Sri Lankan school teachers join rising opposition to Rajapakse government - About 1,000 school teachers and principals protested in Colombo on February 14 to demand higher pay and better conditions. The demonstration marked the entry of another key section of Sri Lankan workers into the growing struggles that have developed since President Gotabhaya Rajapakse came to power. The teachers’ main demands include a pay rise, abolition of salary anomalies, an end to pension cuts carried out since 2016, no more clerical work imposed on teachers and for the government to allocate 6 percent of GDP to education. The protest was organised by the Ceylon Teachers Union (CTU), the Ceylon Teacher Service Union (CTSU), which is controlled by Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), and the Alliance of Teacher-Principal Trade Unions. Teachers from across the island participated, despite the efforts of the teacher union bureaucracy to limit participation and in the face of communalist rhetoric by the Rajapakse government against Tamils and Muslims. The Sunday Observer reported on February 16 that 44 protests, involving thousands of workers from different sectors, have been held outside the Presidential Secretariat in the first 15 days of this month. Participants have included workers from the Petroleum Corporation, Housing Development Authority and in the Archaeology and Samurdhi (Prosperity) departments as well as the railways. About 20,000 workers from these sectors have been summarily sacked by the Rajapakse government, which claims that they were “irregularly” recruited by the previous regime. Students from public higher education institutions have demonstrated for more facilities. The February 14 teachers’ action involved a demonstration outside the Colombo Fort Railway Station and a march to the Presidential Secretariat. Several union leaders, including Joseph Stalin and Mahinda Jayasinghe, secretaries of the CTU and CTSU respectively, entered the Presidential Secretariat demanding a discussion with the president over teachers’ demands. While the union leaders were inside, about 100 riot police attempted to force the chanting teachers away from the Presidential Secretariat gate to a so-called “Agitation Site.” While several female teachers were beaten by the police, teachers defied the police threat and continued their demonstration.
Ukraine’s president vows to end war, invites Trump to Kyiv (AP) — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy vowed Saturday to end the separatist conflict in the east of his country, where fighting between Russia-backed rebels and Ukrainian troops has killed more than 14,000 people since 2014. Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, Zelenskiy said he hopes to end the conflict by the end of his presidential term in 2024. “If in five years, we will end the war, bring our people back, then I did (became president) for a reason,” he said. The conflict in eastern Ukraine erupted in April 2014, weeks after Russia annexed Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula, and has devastated the country's industrial heartland. Thanking the United States for supporting Ukraine in its conflict with Russia, Zelenskiy expressed hope to “start afresh” Kyiv's relations with the U.S. now that proceedings for President Donald Trump's impeachment are over. Ukraine and Zelenskiy were at the center of the impeachment hearings. In a phone call in July that triggered a congressional inquiry, Trump pressured Zelenskiy to investigate the involvement of Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden's son with Burisma, a Ukrainian gas company. In Munich, Zelenskiy said he wants to visit the White House, and he invited Trump to Kyiv. “We have a good relationship with the U.S., and I'm grateful to Americans for their support,” he said. Zelenskiy, a 42-year-old comic actor with no political experience, won Ukraine's presidential election in 2019 on promises to end the fighting. He has expressed willingness to negotiate a peace agreement with Russia. However, several contentious issues complicate the peace process, including Ukraine regaining control of its border and allowing elections that would give rebel-controlled regions more autonomy. Zelenskiy said Saturday in Munich he wants local elections held across Ukraine, including certain areas of the east, in October. But the votes can't take place while fighting continues, he said.
Climate Risks to European Banks: A New Era of Stress Tests - Several European central banks have begun assessing the impact of adverse climate scenarios on banks’ capital. Comparable work at EU or euro area level has evolved more slowly. Supervisors need build up a distinct and more complex type of analysis, and should engage with banks now.The release of a proposed methodology for assessing climate risks within UK banks and insurers by the Bank of England just before Christmas has fuelled calls for a similar ‘climate stress test’ for European banks.That climate risks should be a significant concern for financial supervisors is no longer in doubt. The central bank Network for Greening the Financial system (‘NGFS’, consisting of now 54 institutions) last year already called for climate-related risks to be integrated into standard financial stability monitoring and supervision. The French and Dutch central banks have conducted quantitative top-down studies and found a substantial potential risk. In the case of the Dutchstudy, a disruptive climate scenario was shown to reduce insurance sector portfolio values by up to 11 per cent, and banks’ core equity ratio by about 4 percentage points.Stress tests have become the main tool to assess the impact of external shocks on the EU banking system. They are still a relatively new instrument, first used across the EU in 2011, and most publicly in the comprehensive assessment ahead of the ECB taking on its new responsibilities in 2014.Unlike the US, the EU adopted a bottom-up approach. From the start, banks were given much greater discretion in using their internal models in simulating the impact of the adverse scenario defined by supervisors. This was subject to some limited constraints, for instance in precluding unrealistic asset disposals. In essence, a single EU exercise has been trying to meet two conflicting objectives: of banks which need to communicate resilience under their own business models to investors; and of supervisors which require a single consistent methodology to gauge the need for additional capital requirements under the so-called pillar 2 approach. This resulted in an increasingly costly and complex iteration between the EBA and the ECB on the one hand, and the banks and their advisors on the other.
Britain’s row with Greece over treasures spills into Brexit tensions (Reuters) - A long-running dispute between Britain and Greece over ancient treasures has spilled into tensions over Brexit after a demand for the return of stolen cultural artefacts was added to the draft of a European Union negotiating mandate. The British Museum in London has refused to return the Parthenon Marbles, 2,500-year-old sculptures that British diplomat Lord Elgin removed from Athens in the early 19th century when Greece was under Ottoman Turkish rule. A draft of the 27 EU nations’ position on negotiations with Britain on their future relationship, which was seen by Reuters on Tuesday, seeks the “return or restitution of unlawfully removed cultural objects to their countries of origin”. The document did not specify any cultural objects. However, an EU diplomat said the line was added at the request of Greece, with support from Italy. Greece’s culture minister said last month that Athens would step up its campaign for the return of the Parthenon Marbles from London and expected to win more support from European peers as Brexit diminishes Britain’s influence. The British Museum says the marbles, which are roughly half of a 160-metre frieze that adorned the fifth century BC Parthenon temple, were acquired by Elgin under a legal contract with the Ottoman empire. Greece says they were stolen.
EU summit collapses as leaders struggle to fill €75bn Brexit hole A summit of EU leaders seeking to fill a €75bn hole in the bloc’s budget left by Brexit dramatically collapsed after Angela Merkel led major contributors in rejecting a proposal that would have left them paying billions more. The meeting in Brussels was brought to an abrupt end on Friday evening with the leaders deeply divided, leaving the European council president, Charles Michel, to admit: “We need more time.” The UK’s departure has left EU states struggling to fund plans over the next seven years to tackle the climate emergency, aid poorer regions and continue to subsidise farmers through the common agricultural policy. The 27 heads of state and government must agree on a budget for the next seven years, and the European parliament must give its endorsement, before the end of 2020, to avoid the EU’s spending programmes grinding to a halt. “We are super, super late,” admitted one EU official. Michel, a former prime minister of Belgium, came under fire during the summit, which started on Thursday afternoon, for aiming “far too high” with a proposed budget of 1.074% of the bloc’s gross national income (€1.094tn). Four member states, known as the “frugals” – the Netherlands, Denmark, Austria and Sweden – have insisted that the EU budget amounts to no more than 1% of the bloc’s gross national income. They received the support of Merkel, the German chancellor, in opposing proposals that would slash the rebates they receive on their contributions, designed to ensure that the biggest contributors do not overpay. One EU diplomat said of Michel: “He wanted enough cash to buy a Range Rover; we only have the money for a Volkswagen – and worst of all he asked Mutti [Merkel] to pay for the Range Rover.”
‘We’ll rip each other apart’ – French minister expects battle in Brexit talks - France has warned Britain to expect a bitter battle in Brexit trade talks with the EU, saying the two sides would "rip each other apart". Negotiations for a deal on future EU-UK relations are not due to start until next month, but London and Brussels have already clashed over rules for British financial firms' access to the EU after Brexit. French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves le Drian said it would be tough to achieve Britain's aim of agreeing a free trade deal by the end of the year, with the two sides far apart on a range of issues. "I think that on trade issues and the mechanism for future relations, which we are going to start on, we are going to rip each other apart," Mr Le Drian said at the Munich Security Conference. "But that is part of negotiations, everyone will defend their own interests." Britain formally left the EU two weeks ago but still trades like a member under a transition period ticking down to the end of this year. The remaining 27 EU states are currently drawing up their mandate for the talks on the future relationship, with France in particular pushing for a strong stance, notably on the vexed question of fishing. France and several other countries want to be able to keep fishing in British waters, while London wants full autonomy and limited access for European fishermen. "Let's hope the talks are done as quickly as possible, but there are a lot of issues and some difficult points to deal with," said Mr Le Drian, who is from the important French fishing region of Brittany. The EU's chief negotiator Michel Barnier has said the EU's top priorities are fishing, security and maintaining fair trading conditions for European companies. In a sign of the likely bruising exchanges ahead, Mr Barnier this week told the British government not to kid itself about EU access for its prized financial services sector. Mr Barnier firmly rejected a British suggestion that City of London companies could be given broad, permanent access to EU markets without conditions. Before the 31 January exit from the EU, Britain said it wanted an ambitious and comprehensive accord with the bloc. But since then, Prime Minister Boris Johnson's government has dialled back, signalling it is willing to accept trade friction in return for sovereignty.
Brexit: roll up for the bloodbaths It could, of course, be media bias, but there does seem to be a lot of grief coming from the land of the Gauls – more accurately, the western end of that ancient land. This time, it's Jean-Yves Le Drian, France's current foreign minister, speaking at the Munich security conference, the annual get-together of big-wigs to debate "the most pressing challenges to international security". But security wasn't on Le Drian's mind, so much, as the coming EU-UK negotiations. And not by any means could it be said that he's a happy bunny. In fact, he's warning of a bloodbath in the making with countries ready to "rip each other apart" over the future relationship.This has been picked up by the Financial Times, which has padded out its basic report with a recap of the issues, and the Guardian is also giving it an airing, going for the headline, "Britain and EU 'will rip each other apart' in trade talks".Predictably, the Express gives it the front page headline treatment, with the banner: "EU threat of Brexit trade bloodbath", thereby converting a warning by a French minister into an EU "threat". There's objectivity and accuracy for you.Oddly enough, The Times also runs it on its front page, but with the relatively restrained headline: "Europe talks tough on trade". Still though, it elides the words of French minister with "Europe".The obedient fanboy gazette, however – clearly taking its instructions from No.10, seems to have ignored the story for now, trying like its master to pretend that Brexit is "done". Perhaps it'll run a report some time today when everyone else has finished with it.As to Le Drian's precise words, what he said was that: "I think that on trade issues and the mechanism for future relations, which we are going to start on, we are going to rip each other apart". But he then rather puts the damper on his own blood-curdling, adding, "that is part of negotiations: everyone will defend their own interests". For all that, Le Drian is an old hand who's been in some sticky situations. And while hyperbole is a normal part of any politician's toolkit, he speaks a lot of sense on some issues.
Boris Johnson rejects EU’s post-Brexit trade deal after Brussels insists on retaining control over UK’s tax rules Boris Johnson’s government has rejected out of hand the EU's demands for a post-Brexit trade deal after Brussels negotiators insisted they should retain control over British tax rules and state subsidies. David Frost, the Prime Minister's chief Brexit negotiator, is this weekend finalising the UK's demands for the deal, which must be secured by the end of this year to avoid a No Deal Brexit. Tory sources say Mr Frost and his team have been infuriated by the EU's demands in its draft mandate. They say that the current draft mandate would involve Brussels seeking to police UK subsidies, impose rules on the UK's tax regime and ask the UK to commit to aligning with the EU's standards for ever. But asking for alignment on standards does not make sense when the EU’s standards fall below those of the UK in many areas of workers’ rights, environmental protections and health and safety, Tory sources say. They insist the UK is not asking for a bespoke or unique deal – just the same requirements that the EU has agreed with other like-minded countries. Mr Frost plans to point out to his Brussels counterparts that, for example, the EU removed 99.5 per cent of tariffs in its deal with Korea, 99 per cent with Japan and 98.7 per cent with Canada – and did not expect 'regulatory alignment' with any of those countries. The tough EU line is being driven particularly by French President Emmanuel Macron, who is pushing for the UK to be forced to make stronger commitments on regulatory alignment in return for maintaining free trade.
EU Says Johnson Will Be Blamed If Brexit Wrecks Trade with U.K. -- European Union Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan said the U.K. will have “full responsibility” for any damage to the British economy after the post-Brexit transition expires, countering a stinging attack by Boris Johnson’s government on the conditions set by Brussels for a follow-up deal. Hogan told a conference on Tuesday that the EU wants economic integration with the U.K. to remain deep, repeating that any free-trade agreement between both sides should align competition, environmental and other standards. The insistence that Britain stick to EU rules “simply fails to see the point of what we are doing,” the U.K.’s chief Brexit negotiator, David Frost, warned hours before Hogan’s comments. The sharply contrasting views about the framework for Britain’s ties with the EU as of 2021 set the stage for fraught negotiations and highlight the risk of a car-crash separation when a transitional arrangement that maintains the economic status quo expires on Dec. 31. “We’re looking for a level playing field and they don’t seem to want it,” Hogan said in Brussels. Asked about the risk of future disruptions in EU-U.K. goods trade, he said: “It’s up to the United Kingdom to make sure it doesn’t happen. Full responsibility is in the hands of the United Kingdom.” The U.K. government has said it opposes any prolongation of the transition period, leaving both sides only 10 months to reach a deal to prevent the emergence of tariffs and quotas on goods traded across the English Channel. In his remarks on Tuesday, Hogan addressed the possibility of frictions in automotive commerce between the EU and U.K. to make a general point about both sides’ trade relations should Britain reject regulatory alignment with the bloc after the transition period. “It’s a big worry for many of the manufacturing sectors in the U.K.,” he said. “If they want to diverge from the existing rules and regulations, we are going to have problems. And the more they diverge from the existing EU law and regulations, the more problems we’ll have.”
Boris Johnson’s 570 Billion Reasons for Wanting an EU Trade Deal - Brexit shattered 50 years of trade policy in Britain, divorcing the country from its single largest market. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is now trying to glue the pieces back together.Since Britain left the European Union on Jan. 31, Johnson has dispatched his foreign secretary on a tour of Australia and Japan to show that Britain is open for business, while his government has pushed the idea of a trade agreement with the U.S.But there is one market that matters more than any other: the EU. The bloc is by far the U.K.’s biggest trade destination, accounting for 436 billion pounds ($570 billion) of commerce last year -- almost 50% of the country’s total trade in goods.Here’s a look at some of the numbers that will dictate Britain’s priorities in coming months. The EU accounted for £436 billion of Britain’s combined imports and exports of goods in 2019Source: U.K. Office for National StatisticsThe country that is Britain’s biggest individual trading partner is the U.S., with Germany close behind. That explains Johnson’s priority to strike a deal quickly with President Donald Trump’s administration. But the EU as a whole remains by far the biggest bloc that Britain does business with -- even if the share of U.K. exports going to the EU has fallen over time.Yet Brussels is in no hurry to give Britain access to its market unless Johnson agrees to abide by its rules. If the prime minister cannot reach a deal with the bloc by the year-end, Britain will crash out of the EU in what would look much very like a no-deal Brexit. Hence Johnson’s interest in inking additional deals with countries around the world.Note: Total trade is exports plus imports for 2019. Only partners with greater than £3 billion in total trade are includedTrade volume isn’t the only reason for the U.K. to prioritize a deal with the EU. The theory of trade gravity states that the level of commerce between two countries is in proportion to their size and proximity. It’s logistically easier to buy and sell from your neighbors -- a point that ultimately didn’t convince British voters about the merits of staying in the bloc. For the U.K. government, forging agreements with the U.S., Japan, Australia and New Zealand is a key aim. The idea there is that Britain’s historic ties with those countries will make deals easier to accomplish, but judged by the amount of bilateral trade, New Zealand and Australia would come a long way behind China and India.
Immigration: No visas for low-skilled workers, government says - BBC - Low-skilled workers would not get visas under post-Brexit immigration plans unveiled by the government. It is urging employers to "move away" from relying on "cheap labour" from Europe and invest in retaining staff and developing automation technology. The Home Office said EU and non-EU citizens coming to the UK would be treated equally after UK-EU free movement ends on 31 December. Labour said the "hostile environment" will make it hard to attract workers. But Home Secretary Priti Patel said the new system would mean "the brightest and the best will be able to come to the United Kingdom". The government, which said it was aiming to reduce overall migration to the UK, wants a "points-based" immigration system - as it promised in its election manifesto. Under the scheme, overseas workers who wanted to come to the UK would have to speak English and have the offer of a skilled job with an "approved sponsor". They would be awarded 50 points if they fulfil these criteria. In total, immigrants would have to reach 70 points to be able to work in the UK, with points also being awarded for qualifications, the salary on offer and working in a sector with shortages. But the government said it would not introduce a route for lower-skilled workers, urging businesses to "adapt and adjust" to the end of free movement between EU countries and the UK. "It is important employers move away from a reliance on the UK's immigration system as an alternative to investment in staff retention, productivity and wider investment in technology and automation," it said. Instead, it said the 3.2 million EU citizens who have applied to continue staying in the UK could help meet labour market demands. The government also pointed to a quadrupling of the scheme for seasonal workers in agriculture to 10,000, as well as "youth mobility arrangements", which allow 20,000 young people to come to the UK each year.
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