Trump says he has the right to dismiss or demote Fed Chairman Powell - President Donald Trump’s fury at the Federal Reserve again spilled into public view on Saturday when the president asserted he had the power to demote or even dismiss the central bank’s chairman, Jerome Powell, whom he selected for the role. “I think I have the right to remove. I have the right to also take him and put him in a regular position and put somebody else in charge. And I haven’t made any decisions on that,” Trump told reporters during a coronavirus briefing at the White House. Legal scholars say that Powell can only be removed or demoted “for cause” and that this must involve something more serious than a disagreement over policy. But the picture is a bit muddied because a novel legal theory arguing that a president should have more power over independent federal agencies such as the Fed has become popular among some of the new conservative judges appointed to federal courts by Republicans including Trump. Legal experts note this is an untested theory and would likely lead to years of litigation in the federal courts. In the meantime, Powell would likely be able to complete his four-year term as chairman, which ends in 2022. And the uncertainty would roil financial markets, economists said. There are Fed watchers who consider the central bank to have been all too accommodating to Trump’s stated wishes, including the well-known consumer advocate Ralph Nader, who suggested the Fed had sacrificed independence in the Trump era:
Federal Reserve slashes rates to zero, restarts QE in emergency Sunday announcement - The Federal Reserve made an emergency announcement Sunday afternoon by announcing that it would be cutting interest rates to zero for the first time since the financial crisis.The central bank said it will use its “full range of tools” to battle the economic impacts of the novel coronavirus and announced quantitative easing in the form of at least $700 billion of asset purchases. “The actions we have announced today will help American families and businesses, and indeed, our entire economy weather this difficult period and will foster a more vigorous return to normal once the disruptions from the coronavirus abate,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in a statement.Powell said the U.S. economy appeared to have “strong footing” ahead of the coronavirus outbreak, but said the negative impact to key industries like travel, leisure, and hospitality “means that the second quarter [of growth] is probably going to be weak.”The Fed chairman said Congress and the White House will ultimately have to address the health implications of the crisis, adding that only fiscal policy can “direct relief to particular populations and groups.”Powell reiterated several times in a Sunday night press conference that the actions are designed to motivate banks to support businesses, as quarantines around the country raise concerns that businesses will have to close their doors and possibly lay off workers. Powell said lowering rates to zero "will matter to borrowers who will get some relief from our cuts, but they’ll matter a lot more when the economy begins to recover." The Federal Reserve made an emergency announcement Sunday afternoon by announcing that it would be cutting interest rates to zero for the first time since the financial crisis.The central bank said it will use its “full range of tools” to battle the economic impacts of the novel coronavirus and announced quantitative easing in the form of at least $700 billion of asset purchases.
Fed Cuts Rate to Zero in Emergency Meeting - FOMC statement:The coronavirus outbreak has harmed communities and disrupted economic activity in many countries, including the United States. Global financial conditions have also been significantly affected. The effects of the coronavirus will weigh on economic activity in the near term and pose risks to the economic outlook. In light of these developments, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee expects to maintain this target range until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals. This action will help support economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation returning to the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective. The Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook, including information related to public health, as well as global developments and muted inflation pressures, and will use its tools and act as appropriate to support the economy. In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the stance of monetary policy, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Federal Reserve is prepared to use its full range of tools to support the flow of credit to households and businesses and thereby promote its maximum employment and price stability goals. To support the smooth functioning of markets for Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities that are central to the flow of credit to households and businesses,over coming months the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $500 billion and its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $200 billion. The Committee will also reinvest all principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities. In addition, the Open Market Desk has recently expanded its overnight and term repurchase agreement operations. The Committee will continue to closely monitor market conditions and is prepared to adjust its plans as appropriate.
The Fed Backfires: Shock and Awe Rate Drop to 0%, Emergency Bond Buying Program Leads to Limit Down Drops in US Equity Futures as Real World Coronavirus Damage Worsens -- Yves Smith- Investors reacted to the Fed’s unprecedented Sunday moves, of dropping the Fed Funds rate to 0%, launching a new $700 billon Treasury and mortgage bond buying program, increasing the size of dollar swap lines, and other measures, with revulsion. S&P futures and the Dow mini went to limit down in 15 minutes. The central banks signaled desperation and lost credibility as well as firepower. And the timing, coming right after Trump said he had the authority to remove the Fed chairman, had the look, whether true or not, of the central bank capitulating to the President’s demands. What is the point of cutting interest rates when they are so low as to not have a significant impact on funding decisions? Mr. Market has worked out that central bankers are pushing on a string and what the world needs is more demand to replace the massive deflationary shock of many people and businesses suddenly having or facing the high odds of a hit to their incomes. That means massive spending programs. Even Mark Zandi, whose role as a talking head is to put a happy face on distressing data, is in Defcon 1 mode. From the Wall Street Journal: “The onus is now squarely on the Trump administration and Congress—there’s no other way out,” said Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics. The measures so far will help, he said. “But this is a tsunami. They need something that’s three or four times as large.” Just look at the headlines at Bloomberg:Another big bit of bad news came out of China. Even though they claim to have gotten their new coronavirus case rate down to effectively zero, the economic cost so far is much higher than analysts had cheerily predicted. From CNN: Retail sales plunged 20.5% in the January-to-February period from a year earlier, much worse than the forecast 0.8% rise by analysts polled by Reuters, according to the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday. Industrial output also fell 13.5% during the same period, while fixed asset investment plunged 24.5%, both widely missing estimates. And as many experts have pointed out, it isn’t as if business in China will get back to normal all that quickly. The magnitude of the fall in China gives the rest of the world a forecast of what it faces when other economies shut down to stop coronavirus spread. Big corporations see the financial squeeze coming and are trying to get ahead of it.Banks have better capacity to lend than in 2008, but in the US, for a very long time, banks loans have been a diminishing source of funding. They rely more on financial markets: bond issuances, securitizations, commercial paper. Credit lines are a backstop and making serious use of them is a sign of widespread stress. From the Financial Times:
Neel Kashkari Defends Fed's Actions After 12% Market Rout, Says Negative Rates "Not Off The Table" -Neel Kashkari took to CNBC this morning to not only display his ignorance of the basic laws of economics and finance, but also of epidemiology and medicine. Who knew Neel was such a non-expert in so many fields?Kashkari, who while the market was rallying spent his days on social media taking shots at the "Zerohedge" and "conspiracy" crowd, is now taking to TV to try and defend the Fed's "effective" ideas that left the stock market crippled by 12% in one trading session after the Fed took unprecedented stimulus actions, including 150 bps in rate cuts in less than a month and more than $2 trillion in liquidity being injected into financial system. First, Kashkari defended the Fed for panicking and taking drastic action in what could be the very "early innings" of the coronavirus economic slowdown. "The notion we should have saved our cuts for later is a colorful metaphor, but it's just flat wrong," he told Joe Kernen. As we know now, the market disagreed, promptly plunging limit down about an hour after the Fed's action on Sunday night.Kashkari also gave a range of outcomes for the current situation, stating that his base case scenario is a 2001-like recession and his bear case is a 2008-like recession. Clearly clueless about the virus and the measures the rest of the world has taken, Kashkari said a best case would be people staying at home for a few weeks or a few months. So, his prediction for this pullback is somewhere between a totally mild recession that lasts a couple weeks and the worst financial crisis the U.S. has had in almost 100 years.
All Bills Up To Three Months Now Have Negative Yields - With the Fed Funds rate now at the lowest possible positive level (0-25bps) and supported by the zero lower bound at least until the Fed cuts rates to negative as most other central banks, today's historic scramble to obtain dollars which send the Bloomberg Dollar Index to an all time high manifested itself in the furious buying of one particular instrument: no not coupon Treasuries, which tumbled again amid widespread liquidations that sent the 10Y and 30Y yields to 1.192% and 1.787% respectively despite breakevens plunging to all time lows... ... we are talking about T-Bills to the 3 month mark,whose yields slumped below zero today, where they have remained all day in a harbinger of what is coming to the rest of the curve. Should this unprecedented dollar squeeze become even more exacerbated overnight, look at first 6, then 12M bills, eventually 2Y coupons (and so on), also have a negative yield in the coming weeks as the US slowly but surely becomes Japan.
The Fed Tried to Give Away $1 Trillion to Wall Street Today and Failed, Suggesting Specific Banks Are In Trouble - Pam Martens - What is the world coming to when the New York Fed can’t mix up $1 trillion of almost-free money in its punch bowl and get the mega Wall Street banks to drink freely?The New York Fed handed out $129.60 billion this morning at an average interest rate of 0.112. That was for a one-day loan to one or more of Wall Street’s trading firms. The specific names of which firms are doing the borrowing are a closely-guarded secret at the Fed – just as they were during the financial crisis in 2008 until media lawsuits and a legislative amendment forced the banks’ names out into the open. All that the public is allowed to know today is that any of the Fed’s 24 primary dealers (Wall Street trading houses) are allowed to borrow from the facility. (See list below.)The New York Fed also offered $500 billion in a 28-day loan this morning and, stunningly, it only had offers for $18.45 billion of the $500 billion, which was loaned at an average interest rate of 0.151 percent.Despite that poor showing at its money spigot party this morning, the New York Fed made a surprise announcement and said it was throwing another money giveaway of $500 billion at 1:30 p.m. today. Again, only takers for $19.40 billion of the $500 billion showed up. The loans were made at the incredibly low average interest rate of 0.102 percent.There was this same lack of demand last Thursday and Friday when the Fed tried to give away, almost for free, $1.5 trillion over the two-day span.What could possibly account for this lack of greed from the typical pigs at the trough? The reason that jumps to mind to anyone who has been following the Fed’s money spigot closely, is that there are only a handful of Wall Street banks that are in desperate need of this cash. Since the beginning of this program last fall, the New York Fed has imposed caps on how much any one of the 24 Wall Street firms could borrow at each offering. It refers to this limit as a “proposition.”So, for example, on the lastest $500 billion loans, firms can make a “proposition” up to $20 billion on loans backed by U.S. Treasury collateral and up to $20 billion on loans backed by government-backed mortgage securities. It’s not clear if the Fed would provide an individual bank with a total of $40 billion on that specific loan or just $20 billion for both propositions.It’s also not clear if the Fed has, without the public’s knowledge, imposed an overall cap on how much any one bank can borrow within a specific period of time.
The Fed Has Pumped $9 Trillion into Wall Street Over the Past Six Months, But Mnuchin Says “This Isn’t Like the Financial Crisis” -- Pam Martens --On this past Friday morning, in what appeared to be an effort to restore confidence on Wall Street, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin gave an interview on CNBC. Mnuchin said “there’s lots of liquidity” and “this isn’t like the financial crisis.” But savvy folks on Wall Street, and readers of Wall Street On Parade, clearly understand that there is not lots of liquidity and this is exactly like the financial crisis of 2008 in terms of mega Wall Street banks losing massive amounts of their common equity capital and being on a liquidity feeding tube inserted by the Federal Reserve. Since September 17, 2019 – six months ago, the Federal Reserve has loaned billions of dollars to Wall Street every single business day that the stock market has been open. This is the first time this has been necessary since the financial crisis of 2008. That fact, in and of itself, makes this very much on a par with the financial crisis of 2008.Since the Fed began its repo loan operations on September 17, the tally of the Fed’s cumulative loans to Wall Street’s trading firms comes to more than $9 trillion (using the Fed’s own Excel spreadsheet of the data; you have to manually remove the ReverseRepo dollar amounts.) And here we are today, when everyone from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to bank analyst Mike Mayo is telling the public that the banks have plenty of capital and yet the Fed has pumped out 56 percent in six months of the amount it funneled to the Wall Street banks over 31 months during the 2008 financial crisis. At this rate, it is going to top the money it threw at the 2008 crisis in no time at all.That’s no exaggeration. Just this past Thursday the Fed said it would make $1.5 trillion available to Wall Street over just the next two days. The banks didn’t take all of that money but the Fed clearly thought there was a big enough crisis to offer it. The Fed’s balance sheet is back to $4.3 trillion, just $200 billion short of the $4.5 trillion peak it set following the financial crisis. Since the Fed turned on its latest money spigot to Wall Street, it has refused to provide the public with the dollar amounts going to any specific banks. This has denied the public the ability to know which financial institutions are in trouble. The Fed, exactly as it did in 2008, has drawn a dark curtain around troubled banks and the public’s right to know, while aiding and abetting a financial coverup of just how bad things are on Wall Street.
Nothing to suggest trickle-down monetary policy will suddenly work- Ever since March 15, the Federal Reserve has opened its scant toolkit and hurled everything it could still find into a desperate effort to arm financial markets against a storm of falling knives. It didn’t work. This crisis isn’t in the markets — it’s in the air, on the door knobs and most of all, in the fear that keeps people home and cuts off hundreds of millions of Americans from the paychecks on which they counted only last week. Trickle-down monetary policy has worked no better than trickle-down fiscal policy since 2010, giving the U.S. the slowest recovery of modern times, and the most inequality in decades that grew far worse faster than ever. More of the same makes matters worse. Even the markets now knowthat trillions from the Fed aren’t enough. The only policy that will make a meaningful difference is to flood households — not financiers — with urgently-needed liquidity. The Fed can and must open what I call a “family financial facility” that sends billions coursing through the financial system straight to households and small businesses before unpaid bills throw even the soundest financial institutions from illiquidity into insolvency. Although the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act curtailed the Fed’s emergency-liquidity powers, it has ample and unquestionable legal authority to open a family financial facility. The law bars the Fed from saving just one institution and from doing so without Treasury’s agreement. But the Fed must use its powers (under Sections 13(3) and 13(13) of the Federal Reserve Act) to send funds through retail-focused financial institutions that are earmarked for families and small businesses that are catapulting into extremis due to the coronavirus. These funds can be offered at the same 25 basis-point rate the Fed is now charging banks for discount-window access. They should then be immediately converted into credit-card holidays, small-dollar loans, month-by-month mortgage forbearance and short-term, small-business financing for bills such as rent. This facility must hurl trillions into the breach. There isn’t time to build the infrastructure needed to ensure that all borrowers are deserving borrowers, so lenders will need to rely on attestations. There isn’t time to build the products banks don’t now offer to reach lower-income and small-business borrowers, so nonbanks must join the fight. And there isn’t time for the Fed to rewrite the rules to give banks carefully-crafted capital and liquidity rules that take these new obligations into account. The Fed will have to trust the banks; and banks are going to need to deserve that trust. Nonbanks outside of the reach of the Fed can and should be required to post enough collateral at the Fed to ensure that they too act in the public interest. The family financial facility isn’t helicopter money — a new form of quantitative easing that infringes on fiscal policy. In it, the Fed is providing what all central banks are chartered for: emergency liquidity that staves off eviscerating insolvency. U.S. fiscal policy must quickly craft as much of a safety net beneath vulnerable households and small businesses as it can through long-overdue paid sick leave and other supports. But by the time Congress acts, the wellbeing of many households will be too far gone.
What else can the Fed do to blunt coronavirus impact? - — The Federal Reserve made clear Tuesday that it was willing to go further than cutting interest rates to mitigate the economic fallout from the coronavirus.But following its revival of a facility backing commercial debt and the establishment of a separate credit facility for primary dealers, the question still looming over the Fed is just how far is the central bank willing to go to keep credit flowing to consumers and businesses. “They may have to get creative here because liquidity throughout the system is freezing,” said Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.The commercial paper facility announced Tuesday resembles one the Fed put in place during the 2008-era mortgage crisis. The agency reestablished the backstop under its emergency powers in section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act, following criticism that its previous actions to cut the federal funds rate to zero in response to the crisis were insufficient.Yet immediately after the Fed announced the facility, observers were divided between those who see the actions as the full extent of what the Fed can do, and those who believe the Fed may feel compelled to do more.“Our expectation remains that pressure will build on the Federal Reserve to expand its use of 13(3) to ensure there is sufficient credit flowing to businesses and households,” said Jaret Seiberg, an analyst with Cowen Washington Research Group, in a note. Zandi said the Fed could consider launching more credit facilities to help other parts of the liquidity market, such as asset-backed securities. Yet he and several others said the Fed has already flexed its muscle in response to the virus outbreak, and can only do so much."[The Fed is] running out of room to maneuver here,” said Zandi. “The onus is quickly shifting or has already shifted to the Trump administration and Congress to enact fiscal stimulus.”
Fed Boosts Daily QE By 66% Overnight To Record $75 Billion In One Day - Overnight saw the addition of yet another four-letter-acronym bailout fund from The Fed but signals from the market suggest that they are once again losing control of the dollar-shortage-driven liquidity crisis as the FRA-OIS spread has started to rise sharply once again... So, what does The Fed decide to do? Simple - increase its daily QE buying of bonds by 66%, buying a record $75 billion of US Treasury bonds each of today and tomorrow. bank had initially planned to purchase $50b of Treasuries on those days. The buying is spread across 7 operations as listed below:
- 9:40 – 10:00 am: Treasury Coupons 7 to 20 year sector, for around $6 billion
- 10:30 – 10:50 am: Treasury Coupons 4.5 to 7 year sector, for around $11 billion
- 11:20 – 11:40 am: Treasury Coupons 2.25 to 4.5 year sector, for around $17 billion
- 12:10 – 12:30 pm: Treasury Coupons 0 to 2.25 year sector, for around $25 billion
- 1:00 – 1:20 pm: Treasury Coupons 20 to 30 year sector, for around $9 billion
- 1:50 – 2:10 pm: TIPS 1 to 7.5 year sector (Thursday)/TIPS 7.5 to 30 year sector (Friday), for around $7 billion
Just for some context, that is more than one month of 'old QE' in one day!!
Fed Injects $189BN In Repo Liquidity As Libor Explodes - In light of the frozen funding markets, which are now demanding the Commercial Paper bailout facility we discussed on Sunday, which the Fed failed to deliver and which CNBC's Steve Liesman said may be coming any moment as without we will see a relentless barrage of companies drawing down on their revolvers as they are locked out of other sources of funding, moments ago the Fed continued to inject liquidity, by conudcing two repos amounting to just under $189BN. The first one was an oversubscribed 14-Day repo, which saw $46.6BN in submissions, with the max available $45BN allotted. This was followed half an hour later by the $500BN overnight repo which merely rolls over the prior day's expiring overnight, and which saw some $142.65BN in usage. With no other repos scheduled for today, and the next $500BN 84-day facility not due until Friday, banks may soon find themselves in another funding panic, and the Fed may respond as it did yesterday, with an ad hoc $500BN facility later in the day if funding conditions refuse to ease, which considering the biggest one-day jump in LIBOR since the crisis screaming systemic funding stress and now counterparty risk...
Fed Again Announces Extra $500BN Repo To Stabilize Funding Markets - Earlier this morning, when discussing the latest Fed repo injections, which at $189BN between overnight and term repos, seemed insufficient to ease the stress in the repo market where GC repo jumped by 40bps to 60bps this morning...we said that "with no other repos scheduled for today, and the next $500BN 84-day facility not due until Friday, banks may soon find themselves in another funding panic, and the Fed may respond as it did yesterday, with an ad hoc $500BN facility later in the day if funding conditions refuse to ease."Alas, funding conditions have indeed refused to ease, with the BBDXY surging to new session highs perhaps awaiting the Fed to validate earlier reports that a Fed Commercial Paper facility is imminent, and moments ago - just as we expected - the Fed, which is now literally flying blind and making up liquidity injections on the fly, the New York Fed announced that it would conduct an additional overnight repo operation for same-day settlement today from 1:30 PM ET to 1:45 PM ET. And, as yesterday's ad hoc operation, this repo operation will be conducted for up to an aggregate offered amount of $500 billion with a minimum bid rate of 0.10 percent. And, as yesterday, the Fed explained that this action "is taken to ensure that the supply of reserves remains ample and to support the smooth functioning of short-term U.S. dollar funding markets." The problem for the Fed is that these actions have done virtually nothing to facilitate the "smooth functioning of short-term U.S. dollar funding markets", and the longer the Fed delays in unveiling just what can fix these markets, the greater the dollar shortage will be.
Fed starts emergency program to aid money market mutual funds - The Federal Reserve late Wednesday said it was launching a program to support money market mutual funds as alarm over the coronavirus continues to cause strains in short-term funding markets. The Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility, established under the Fed’s emergency authority, echoes a version that was set up during the global financial crisis. The Treasury Department will provide $10 billion of credit protection. Separately, the Fed issued a rule early Thursday with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency that makes a technical change to capital requirements allowing U.S. banks to participate in the new liquidity facility. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said in a statement the fund would “enhance the liquidity and smooth functioning of money markets, support the flow of credit to hard working Americans, and help stabilize the broader financial system.” Earlier Wednesday, the Treasury Department had proposed to temporarily guarantee money market mutual funds with taxpayer dollars as part of its coronavirus stimulus plan, according to a document obtained by Bloomberg News. The dramatic late-night step was the central bank’s third emergency lending facility in two days, after the Fed on Tuesday unleashed measures to support the commercial paper market and primary dealers. “Money market funds are common investment tools for families, businesses, and a range of companies,” the Fed said in its statement. “The MMLF will assist money market funds in meeting demands for redemptions by households and other investors, enhancing overall market functioning and credit provision to the broader economy.”
The Lehman Playbook Is Here- Fed Announces Bailout Of Commercial Paper Market - Here's The Bad News - It was supposed to be announced late on Sunday (recall "Fed Expected To Announce CP Bailout Facility Within Hours Or Risk Money Market Panic"), but instead Powell hoped that the bazooka of QE/ZIRP/FX swaps would be sufficient to ease the funding panic. It wasn't, and instead, with a 2-day delay which forced countless companies facing a funding shortage to scramble for liquidity and draw down on their revolver facilities, moments ago the Fed announced that, just as we reported earlier, it will establish a Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF) - the same facility that was unveiled during the last financial crisis - "to support the flow of credit to households and businesses."As the Fed explains...Commercial paper markets directly finance a wide range of economic activity, supplying credit and funding for auto loans and mortgages as well as liquidity to meet the operational needs of a range of companies. By ensuring the smooth functioning of this market, particularly in times of strain, the Federal Reserve is providing credit that will support families, businesses, and jobs across the economy. The CPFF will provide a liquidity backstop to U.S. issuers of commercial paper through a special purpose vehicle (SPV) that will purchase unsecured and asset-backed commercial paper rated A1/P1 (as of March 17, 2020) directly from eligible companies.And since this is effectively a partial Fed bailout of corporate America, certainly its overnight funding needs, the Fed referred to authority granted to it under Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act, with approval of the Treasury Secretary, as now that the Lehman playbook is in play, the bailout of Corporate America is suddenly very political. As noted above, this is not a new facility, but was first rolled out on October 7, 2008, right after the Lehman bankruptcy prompted Money Market funds to "break the buck" and a Fed bailout of CP was needed. After its start, the facility quickly saw usage jump to $350BN, before fading to zero over the next year as QE1 took over.
Fed expands reach of new credit facility to muni bond market— The Federal Reserve is expanding its facility backing money market mutual funds to also provide support to the municipal bond market as the economy grapples with fallout from the virus pandemic. The Fed announced the creation of the Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility Wednesday night among a host of recent emergency measures to preserve the flow of credit to households and businesses that could face financial difficulties as the coronavirus wreaks havoc on communities. On Friday, the Fed said the program will also serve as a backstop for state and local governments through municipal bonds. Through the facility, "the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston will now be able to make loans available to eligible financial institutions secured by certain high-quality assets purchased from single state and other tax-exempt municipal money market mutual funds," the Fed said. The municipal bond markets have been rocked in recent days as investors have fled the historically low-risk instruments at exactly the same time state and local governments are prepping to issue more debt as the virus shuts down cities. Earlier in the week on Tuesday, the Fed established two other credit facilities to support the commercial paper market and primary dealers to ensure the smooth flow of credit, both administered by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Fed Announces Enhanced Central Bank Swap Lines To Ease Dollar Funding Shortage - With the Fed throwing the kitchen sink at the global dollar funding shortage problem, and failing to make much of a dent on the renewed surge in the dollar, last night we said that we expect even more aggressive swap lines with global central banks to be revealed by the Fed in the coming days in hopes of easing the $12 trillion dollar margin call.That happened moments ago when the Fed announced a new round of "enhanced" central bank swap lines with the 5 big central banks, where the biggest difference from the swap lines announced over the weekend is that the frequency of the swap line will increase from weekly to daily.According to a press release by the Fed, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Swiss National Bank are today announcing a coordinated action to further enhance the provision of liquidity via the standing U.S. dollar liquidity swap line arrangements.To improve the swap lines' effectiveness in providing U.S. dollar funding, these central banks have agreed to increase the frequency of 7-day maturity operations from weekly to daily. These daily operations will commence on Monday, March 23, 2020, and will continue at least through the end of April. The central banks also will continue to hold weekly 84-day maturity operations.The swap lines among these central banks are available standing facilities and serve as an important liquidity backstop to ease strains in global funding markets, thereby helping to mitigate the effects of such strains on the supply of credit to households and businesses, both domestically and abroad. Keep an eye on the DXY or BBDXY to see if the market is impressed by this latest development; the good news is that in kneejerk reaction, the FRA/OIS tumbled by about 8 bps, although it has a long way to go before it normalizes.
Historic Day: Fed To Buy A Record $107 Billion In Securities Today Alone As Fed Balance Sheet Explodes --Back in December we predicted that at the rate "Not QE" (RIP) was going, the Fed balance sheet would surpass it all time high by late April. It turns out that we were overly optimistic: with the Fed relaunching QE over the weekend as part of what is now global helicopter money, it announced plans to purchase $700BN in Treasury securities and expanding it to MBS earlier this week. However, that was not enough, and in the past week the Fed scrambled to stabilize the Treasury market buying TSYs feverishly hands over fist in addition to soaking up as much securities as Dealers had in its repo facilities, and as of this moment the Fed's balance sheet has soared to a new all time high of $4.668 trillion.As a reminder, the Fed balance sheet was $3.7 trillion in Sep, just ahead of the repo crisis, meaning that in the last 6 months it has grown at a 50%+ pace. Putting the recent surge of purchases in context, here is what the Fed's "Not QE" looked like in purchase terms since it was restarted in October, and what March will look like. Drilling down further on just the past week, starting with last Friday when the Fed announced several emergency POMOs, which were followed by Sunday's QE5 announcement, one can see how the crisis escalated in the Fed's eyes, and peaked today, when the Fed is expected to purchase a record $75 billion in Treasurys and a record $32 billion in MBS, for a total of $107 billion in security purchases just on Friday! Finally, putting this week's emergency response in the context of the Fed's busiest week of post Lehman crisis activity, which was March 2009 when the Fed monetized $162 billion in securities, this week will be nearly double that, with the Fed buying $307BN in newly announced Treasury and MBS securities.
Fed’s Balance Sheet Skyrockets to $4.7 Trillion - Pam Martens - The Fed’s H.4.1 report was releasedat 4:30 p.m. today and it shows that the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has skyrocketed to $4.7 trillion. It also shows that as of yesterday, its repo loans to the trading houses on Wall Street had soared to a total of $441.9 billion outstanding while borrowings from its Discount Window added another $28.2 billion, bringing the combined total to over $470 billion in loans outstanding.Wall Street has been receiving hundreds of billions of dollars a week in assistance from the Fed since September 17, 2019 while struggling Americans have yet to see a dime of assistance to help offset job losses from the coronavirus outbreak. The Fed doesn’t have to wait for a vote in Congress to funnel $9 trillion in cumulative loans to Wall Street. It can create an unlimited amount of dollars electronically at the push of a button. (See related articles below.) Following the 2007-2010 financial crisis and three rounds of Quantitative Easing (QE), the Fed’s balance sheet never exceeded $4.5 trillion. The 2007-2010 financial crisis was the worst Wall Street calamity since the 1930s and the Great Depression. In both periods, the depths of the crash resulted from federal regulators allowing depository banks to be under the same management as high-risk Wall Street trading houses and investment banks. The Congress in place in 1933 clearly recognized the problem and passed the Banking Act of 1933 (Glass-Steagall Act). That legislation created federal insurance on bank deposits and banned Wall Street firms engaged in trading or underwriting securities to own federally-insured banks. The U.S. financial system thrived for 66 years under the Glass-Steagall Act. But the Bill Clinton administration, which was filled with Wall Street cronies, repealed the legislation in 1999. It took just nine years after the repeal for Wall Street to blow itself up in the precise fashion of 1929. Rather than having the courage to stand up to Wall Street’s titans and lobbyists and restore the Glass-Steagall Act, the Obama administration passed hodgepodge legislation called the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, which seemed to be intentionally filled with loopholes for Wall Street’s mega banks to wiggle through easily.As a result, after receiving a $29 trillion Fed bailout from 2007 to 2010 and hundreds of billions more in taxpayer assistance, Wall Street is back again at the money trough as the country faces a national crisis that demands attention to hardworking Americans, who, through no fault of their own, have lost their jobs, their livelihoods and their health insurance that came with that job.
Treasury Yields Jump After Report White House Mulling 50Y Bond To Fund $1.3TN Stimulus - Amid relentless calls for a massive fiscal stimulus, the market apparently forgot that the stimulus will have to be funded somehow, and that moment came moments ago when Bloomberg reported that the White House is revisiting an idea to issue ultra-long bonds, including 50-year and 25-year bonds, as the source of funding. According to the report Trump advisors are trying to come up with the lowest cost option to taxpayers, and that reportedly include the same ultra-long bonds which Mnuchin just two months ago said there was not market interest for. Bloomberg notes that Trump's top economic adviser Larry Kudlow liked the idea, and although Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin was initially skeptical he has since warmed to it. As a reminder, Mnuchin in January announced plans to issue a 20-year bond in the first half of the year in an effort to lengthen the average maturity of the agency’s offerings, although he nixed speculation that a 50 or even 100-year bond may come as there was no market interest. Mnuchin has twice considered issuing 50- or 100-year bonds. Investors have pushed back at the idea because, in their view, ultra-long bonds could not be issued in a consistent and sustainable manner. It appears that the US will have to push back on investor push back, as that $1.3 trillion stimulus will not fund itself. The news sent yields on 10Y and 30Y Treasuries sharply higher although the move has since reversed...
Fed opens liquidity lines with more central banks - The Federal Reserve established temporary dollar liquidity-swap lines with nine additional central banks, expanding the rapid roll-out of financial-crisis-era programs to combat the economic meltdown from the coronavirus pandemic. The new facilities total $60 billion for central banks in Australia, Brazil, South Korea, Mexico, Singapore, and Sweden, and $30 billion each for Denmark, Norway, and New Zealand. The swap lines will be in place for at least six months. The announcement followed the late Wednesday launch of a Fed facility to support money market mutual funds and comes as part of sweeping emergency measures the U.S. central bank has unleashed to support the economy from the coronavirus. The Fed already has standing swap lines with the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank. The expansion of the dollar swap lines allows foreign central banks to meet the needs of companies and financial institutions rushing for dollars as the global payments system undergoes severe strain due to the coronavirus. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has soared the most since the financial crisis in 2008, reflecting enormous demand for the currency. The Fed had swap lines outstanding to 14 central banks in the financial crisis. The dollar pared gains from earlier in the day after the announcement, while currencies such as Australia’s, New Zealand’s and Norway’s received some support following recent declines. The swaps lines were initiated in 2007 as the credit crisis erupted, starting first with the main, developed nation central banks. As pressures on the global system intensified, the Fed expanded the availability to smaller, advanced economies and to emerging markets including South Korea and Brazil. Making dollars available to foreign nations -- even if it didn’t cost the Fed -- became a point of contention for some in the U.S. Congress. The central bank had to repeatedly defend the action and explain to lawmakers that U.S. taxpayers were not lending foreign nations money and that because these were swaps -- not loans -- there was no risk of default.
The case for a Fed-PBoC swap line - We wrote yesterday about how the revival of dollar swap lines on far more relaxed terms was by far the most important thing the Federal Reserve has done thus far. However, there are some flaws – chief among them that there is no swap line between the US central bank and its Chinese counterpart, the People’s Bank of China. Anyone trying to understand why that’s so important should take a look at a note published by Pierre Ortlieb, economist at OMFIF, a think tank. Ortlieb’s note ishere. But for the time poor, here’s a summary.The crux of the argument is that many of the sectors hardest hit by the coronavirus outbreak, such as airlines and real-estate development, are also among the most likely to have high dollar-denominated debt burdens. The chart below shows the situation for six of China’s airlines: And here is the total dollar-denominated debt burden: The sharp cuts in the federal funds rate would clearly help these firms in normal times. But with global corporate bond markets under stress, it is easy to see how firms such as these could struggle to roll over their debts. A wave of defaults on dollar-denominated debts will do no one much good right now. China is the most important trading nation on the planet. And trade is overwhelmingly denominated in dollars. So why not grant a swap line? The reason is that the politics of the moment precludes it. As Ortlieb puts it:In the light of China’s ongoing reliance on the dollar, it would intuitively make sense to grant them a dollar liquidity swap line; yet geostrategic pressure not to act in favour of China has precluded this and will continue to do so. He does, however, think that the use of swap lines elsewhere will aid Chinese firms by freeing up the global supply of dollars. And there is always the option suggested by Credit Suisse’s Zoltan Pozsar (and noted here): that the PBoC sells of some of its holdings of US Treasuries and uses the cash to cover any dollar funding difficulties China’s lenders might have. The concern there is that this offsets one of the things the Fed is trying to do through its $700bn-worth of new QE. That is, make Treasuries as cash-like as possible. China is one of the biggest holders of US government debt – and the biggest foreign holder after Japan, with more than $1th worth of Treasuries as ofJanuary. A not insubstantial concern if it begins selling that stock in large amounts, then. The loud cries of swap lines being a “US bailout of the rest of the world” will drown out anyone who puts forth this case. But if the dollar is to maintain its status as the pre-eminent global reserve currency (a status that allows the US to borrow cheaply and impose sanctions far more aggressively that it would otherwise be able to), then the most common-sense thing is to offer greenback liquidity direct to Beijing.
Conference Board Leading Economic Index Edged Up in February, Will Be Short-Lived The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for February was up 0.1% from the January figure of 112.0. The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. increased slightly in February. Positive contributions from weekly manufacturing hours and average consumer expectations for business conditions offset declines in building permits and the ISM® New Orders Index. In the six-month period ending February 2020, the leading economic index increased 0.3 percent (about a 0.5 percent annual rate), slightly slower than the growth of 0.4 percent (about a 0.9 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. In February, the weaknesses and strengths among the leading indicators were balanced. The Conference Board CEI for the U.S., a measure of current economic activity, increased in February. The coincident economic index rose 0.7 percent (about a 1.5 percent annual rate) between August 2019 and February 2020, about the same growth rate as over the previous six months. Also, the strengths among the coincident indicators have remained very widespread, with all components advancing over the past six months. The lagging economic index continued to increase at a slightly higher rate than the CEI. As a result, the coincident-to-lagging ratio is down slightly. Real GDP expanded at a 2.1 percent annual rate in both the third and fourth quarters of last year. [Full notes in PDF] Here is a log-scale chart of the LEI series with documented recessions as identified by the NBER. The use of a log scale gives us a better sense of the relative sizes of peaks and troughs than a more conventional linear scale. For additional perspective on this indicator, see the latest press release, which includes this overview: “The U.S. LEI rose slightly in February, but it doesn’t reflect the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic which began to hit the U.S. economy in full by early March. The slight gain in February came only from half of the LEI components. In particular, the recovery in manufacturing, which looked promising until February, will now be short-lived because of the disruption in global supply chains and falling demand,” “Declines in stock prices, consumers’ outlook on economic conditions, manufacturing new orders, average workweek in manufacturing, and rising unemployment claims will begin to negatively impact the economy. As a result, the economy may already be entering into a period of contraction.”
Goldman says U.S. growth will shrink 5% next quarter and here’s how low stocks could go - IThe coronavirus crisis has ramped up another level with large parts of Europe on lockdown and the U.S. looking set to follow suit. Health officials have recommended a ban on public gatherings of 50 or more people, while the U.S.’s top infectious diseases expert Dr. Anthony Fauci said a national lockdown wasn’t out of the question. The Federal Reserve slashed interest rates back to zero and launched a massive bond-buying program on Sunday in a bid to prop up the economy.But U.S. stock futures hit limit down ahead of the open on Monday, and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF tumbled SPY, -6.880% 9.6%, indicating the central bank’s dramatic intervention would do little to stop the rot.In our call of the day, Goldman Sachs downgraded U.S. GDP forecasts and said a recession was on its way.The investment bank’s economic research team, led by Jan Hatzius, said economic activity would “contract sharply” for the rest of March and April as consumers and businesses cut back on spending. They expected a recovery after April, though that was uncertainty, but said their new forecasts “probably” met the criteria for a recession.They expected real GDP growth of 0% in the first quarter and a contraction of 5% in the second quarter. “This takes our 2020 GDP forecast down to +0.4%(from 1.2%). The uncertainty around all of these numbers is much greater than normal.” The team said the prospect of a recovery and strong growth in the second half were dependent on whether social distancing and warmer weather reduces the number of virus cases, how quickly reduced infections will bring a return to normality and how effective fiscal and monetary policy turns out to be. Goldman Sachs chief equity strategist David Kostin said, in a separate note, the S&P 500 could fall to as low as 2,000 points if the economic impact of the virus worsens but expected the index to reach 3,200 by the end of 2020.
Goldman Takes Out The Chainsaw- Cuts US Q2 GDP To -5%; Says Recession Has Begun - While it will probably not come as a surprise to anyone who read our earlier post to "Brace For A Record Decline in GDP", but moments ago Goldman - which last week called the bear market just hours before it officially materialized, and cut its year-end S&P price target to 2,450 which the S&P almost hit late on Thursday - finally capitulated on its optimistic take for the US economy, and in a note published moments ago by its chief economist Jan Hatzius, Goldman said that it expects US economic activity "to contract sharply in the remainder of March and throughout April as virus fears lead consumers and businesses to continue to cut back on spending such as travel, entertainment, and restaurant meals. Emerging supply chain disruptions and the recent tightening in financial conditions will likely add to the growth hit."As a result, the bank is now expecting Q2 GDP to crater -5%, down from its prior forecast of 0%, and the biggest quarterly GDP contraction since the peak of the financial crisis when GDP cratered by 8.4%.Goldman lays out the details of how it gets to this worst GDP print in 12 years below: Even with monetary and fiscal policy turning sharply further toward stimulus—we expect a 100bp rate cut on Wednesday and a fiscal impulse of 1-2% of GDP—these shutdowns and rising public anxiety about the virus are likely to lead to a sharp deterioration in economic activity in the rest of March and throughout April. Virus fears have already begun to lead US consumers and businesses to reduce spending on activities such as travel, entertainment, and restaurant meals. Airlines have eliminated a significant share of flights, conferences have been called off, major cruise lines have canceled all cruises, theme parks have shut down, and hotel occupancy has fallen sharply in cities with early virus outbreaks. Among sports leagues, the professional and college basketball, hockey, and soccer seasons have been cancelled, as have major golf and tennis events, and the baseball season has been postponed. While we are not assuming an Italy-style national shutdown in the US, the experience of countries like Italy, Spain and France offers some indications of the impact that extreme local-level quarantines could have. In Italy, for example, all retail stores except drug stores and grocery stores are closed, all restaurants are closed, hotel occupancy is at a small fraction of capacity, and some factories have closed temporarily while many others are operating below normal levels because workers are resisting going to work out of fear of getting sick.
JPMorgan Now Expects A Global Depression In The Second Quarter - Earlier we reported that in a report titled "the lamps are going out all across the economy", JPMorgan's chief US economist, Michael Feroli slashed his Q2 US GDP forecast to a staggering -14%, which he optimistically expects to form the bottom of a V-shaped recovery that then lifts the US economy by +8% and +4% in Q3 and Q4, respectively (at least until the next downward revision in his forecast). We doubt the V-shaped recovery will take place, in fact if there is any "recovery" it will be L-shaped especially if medical experts are correct that the pandemic will take 12-18 months to full clear out. That said, the Q2 prediction alone is catastrophic, and if that slowdown persists the US is facing not only a recession, but probably a second Great Depression. However, if JPM's forecast revision for the US was catastrophic, than its latest global outlook is downright apocalyptic. In a separate note by JPM's Bruce Kasman, has also taken a flamethrower to his global economic forecasts, and the bank's head of economic policy now anticipates Europe to implode an unprecedented 22%, the UK to crater by a depressionary and with the US plunging 14%, he sees the global economy ex China contracting by a whopping -13.7%. In short, JPM now expects no less than a global depression in the second quarter. This will follow a Q1 quarter in which China is expected to collapse by -40.8%, which however will somehow surge by 57.4% in the second quarter. This is how Kasman lays out his latest forecast: Last week we concluded that the COVID-19 shock would produce a global recession as nearly all of the world contracts over the three months between February and April. This week’s reports, which show a collapse in China’s activity in February and in survey readings for March elsewhere in the world, validate this view. There is no longer doubt that the longest global expansion on record will end this quarter. The key outlook issue now is gauging the depth and the duration of the 2020 recession.
Economist- It's A Mistake To Think Business Conditions Will Quickly Return To Normal Levels - Economic recession is an infrequent occurrence, but in a fundamental sense recessions are the economy’s way of cleansing the “rot” out the system that have been built up over time. This emanates from bad investments, bad loans, bad policies, excessive risk and speculation. Recessions expose the vulnerabilities of the economy and the financial system. Even though the proximate cause could come from an outside shock it’s the weaknesses and imbalances that are the underlying cause. So when the “right” shock comes along the fragile structure would collapse. Recessions fundamentally change behavior and policies and post recession business and finance will be materially different. Since 1960 the US economy has experienced eight recessions; each economic downturn has been different along with the duration and depth. The average peak to trough decline in real GDP was around 1.7%, but the range is wide from 0.5% to 4.0%. Economic recession acts like a forest fire, such that it doesn’t discriminate between the “deadwood” and the “good” in the economy. In the process, it destroys jobs and people’s lives, but also forces small companies (sometimes mid-sized to big) to close or downsize that were not previously vulnerable. It’s the sheer force of an abrupt drop in spending, the curtailment of lending and the scramble for liquidity where few escape. Some of the industries largely affected today include airlines, restaurants, hotel accommodations, and recreation (sports centers, parks, concerts, theaters, etc.). According to the data in the GDP report, the annual spending by consumers for these services and activities amounts to about $2 trillion - businesses probably spend similarly.In other words, if there were a cessation of all of these activities for an 8-week period the impact to the US economy would be over $650 billion, equal to 3% of GDP (this is just from the aforementioned service industries). Only the consumer aspect of the spending decline would directly affect GDP, but these industries would feel the full impact of this spending collapse. Spending in these service industries is not going to “zero”, but in some cases it will. There are no professional sports of any kind scheduled for the time being or foreseeable future. These companies are enormously affected since they have to reimburse paid customers for travel and events cancellations. It’s impossible to predict confidently how severe the economic slump will be or the duration. Nothing on this scale has hit the US economy in the post-war period. This disruption goes far beyond work and finance because it also encompasses people’s mobility, health care, education, all forms of entertainment and recreation, and confidence in our government.
US Threatens Families Of Int'l Criminal Court Staff If They Try Americans For War Crimes --US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has threatened the family members of International Criminal Court staff, vowing that Washington will take punitive action against them if the court tries American soldiers for war crimes.Pompeo also announced an intensification of unilateral US sanctions on Iran and Syria, which are illegal under international law, and which are undermining the countries’ attempts to contain the coronavirus pandemic. In March 2019, the Pompeo State Department threatened to revoke or deny visas to any International Criminal Court (ICC) personnel investigating crimes committed by American forces.A year later, on March 5, 2020, the ICC took a defiant step forward, officially approving an investigation into allegations of war crimes and crimes against humanity committed by the US military and CIA in Afghanistan.Pompeo responded by angrily condemning the court and its proceedings. His broadside was an apparent attempt at discrediting the institution, which the US government is not a party to.In a subsequent State Department press briefing on March 17, Pompeo launched another tirade against the ICC, belittling it as a “so-called court,” a “nakedly political body,” and an “embarrassment.” Pompeo, who previously served as director of the CIA, took the denunciations a step further, threatening the family members of ICC staff. “We want to identify those responsible for this partisan investigation and their family members who may want to travel to the United States or engage in activity that’s inconsistent with making sure we protect Americans,” Pompeo said, according to the US State Department’s official transcript. Sarah Leah Whitson, the managing director for research and policy at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, drew attention to the “shocking attack” on Twitter. “This isn’t just unlawful collective punishment against family members; it’s not just a disturbing attack on staff of a judiciary — where the US has voted to refer other nations for prosecution; it’s abuse of federal authority to use sanctions against actual wrongdoers,” said Whitson, who previously directed the Middle East and North Africa division at Human Rights Watch. This blatant US threat against the family members of International Criminal Court prosecutors is part of a longer historical pattern of Washington attacking multilateral institutions.
Why Sanctions Against Iran and Venezuela During a Pandemic Are Cruel - Swiftly moves the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), dashing across continents, skipping over oceans, terrifying populations in every country. The numbers of those infected rises, as do the numbers of those who have died. Hands are being washed, tests are being done, and social distance has become a new phrase. It is unclear how devastating this pandemic will be. In the midst of a pandemic, one would expect that all countries would collaborate in every way to mitigate the spread of the virus and its impact on human society. One would expect that a humanitarian crisis of this magnitude would provide the opportunity to suspend or end all inhumane economic sanctions and political blockades against certain countries. The main point here is this: Is this not the time for the imperialist bloc, led by the United States of America, to end the sanctions against Cuba, Iran, Venezuela, and a series of other countries? Venezuela’s Foreign Minister Jorge Arreaza told us recently that the “illegal and unilateral coercive measures that the United States has imposed on Venezuela are a form of collective punishment.” The use of the phrase “collective punishment” is significant; under the 1949 Geneva Conventions, any policy that inflicts damage on an entire population is a war crime. The U.S. policy, Arreaza told us, has “resulted in difficulties for the timely acquisition of medicines.” On paper, the unilateral U.S. sanctions say that medical supplies are exempt. But this is an illusion. Neither Venezuela nor Iran can easily buy medical supplies, nor can they easily transport it into their countries, nor can they use them in their largely public sector health systems. The embargo against these countries—in this time of COVID-19—is not only a war crime by the standards of the Geneva Conventions (1949) but is a crime against humanity as defined by the United Nations International Law Commission (1947). The U.S. Congress passed the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) in 2017, which tightened sanctions against Iran, Russia, and North Korea. In particular, the U.S. government made it clear that any business with the public sector of Iran and Venezuela was forbidden. The health infrastructure that provides for the mass of the populations in both Iran and Venezuela is run by the State, which means it faces disproportionate difficulty in accessing equipment and supplies, including testing kits and medicines.
What to Know in Washington: A 'Spike' in Virus Cases is Expected - Expanding testing for the Covid-19 virus in the U.S. will result in a “spike in the curve” over the next week as more cases are uncovered, a top White House aide said yesterday.“For those of you who watched China, and China reporting, remember when they changed their definition and all of a sudden there was a blip in their curve? We are going to see that,” Dr. Deborah Birx, virus response coordinator, said yesterday at a briefing by the White House coronavirus task force.“We are going to see a spike as more and more people have access” to the tests, Birx said.There have been 3,365 confirmed coronavirus cases in the U.S. as of Sunday evening, with 64 deaths. Cases of the highly-infectious virus are now present in every U.S. state except West Virginia. New York, Washington, California and Massachusetts have been some of the hot spots.At least ten states now have the availability of drive-by testing for the coronavirus as tests ramp up nationwide after a slow start, said Vice President Mike Pence. Pence, head of the task force, Birx, and other officials including Trump, spoke at yesterday’s briefing. Read more from Justin Sink and Anna Waters.Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve slashed rates to near zero and the Bank of Japan strengthened stimulus as central banks moved to blunt the financial impact of the coronavirus outbreak. Airlines cut flights and a consultant warned many could go bankrupt by May. The World Health Organization warned that Europe is reporting more new cases each day than China did at its peak and countries all over the continent are in lockdown. Cases also soared in the U.S. and Goldman Sachs Group predicted the country’s economy would shrink 5% in the second quarter. New York City and Los Angeles limited restaurants and bars to takeout and delivery service. Bloomberg is tracking the latest developments here.
A third person who visited Trump's Mar-a-Lago club over the weekend has reportedly tested positive for coronavirus - A third person who visited Mar-a-Lago, President Donald Trump's Palm Beach, Florida, residence and golf club, has tested positive for the novel coronavirus on Friday. "Brazil's Chargé d'Affaires Ambassador Nestor Forster has learned tonight that he has tested positive for Covid-19," the Brazilian embassy in the US announced Friday. "Following medical advice, Amb. Forster will extend his self-quarantine, which he had already placed himself into as a precautionary measure, for another two weeks."The Washington Post reported that the second infected person was present at a Sunday fundraising lunch "hosted by Trump Victory, a committee that raises money for the Trump campaign and the Republican Party."The first Mar-a-Lago visitor to test positive for the coronavirus was Fabio Wajngarten, press secretary to Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro. Trump met and was photographed with Wajngarten at the club on Saturday. Also on Friday, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez announced that he too tested positive for COVID-19 after meeting with the same Brazilian delegation. Two GOP Senators, Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Sen. Rick Scott of Florida, are self-quarantining after coming into contact with Wajngarten.
Trump administration official admits coronavirus could kill millions in US - The death toll and infection toll from COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus epidemic, is skyrocketing across the major countries of Western Europe, with hospitals filled to bursting. Italy, Spain and France are all on lockdown, and emergency measures are in effect in most other countries. On Friday, the World Health Organization declared that Europe, rather than China, was now the epicenter of the pandemic. Italy is under the greatest strain with 24,747 cases and over 1,800 deaths—a far greater toll, in proportion to the population, than in China, where the epidemic has begun to subside after reaching 80,649 cases and more than 3,000 dead. The United States, however, could well become the next epicenter of the pandemic, as the deliberate failure of the Trump administration to conduct any effective response opens up the American population to losses in the millions of lives. In a blunt exchange on the Sunday CNN program State of the Union, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, was asked, “There have been estimates of hundreds of thousands of people in the U.S. who could die or, in the worst-case scenario, millions. Can you tell the American people that that is possible?” He replied, “It’s possible.” The state of the pandemic, by all credible accounts, is racing ahead towards a disaster for millions. By Sunday, there were 167,638 cases of COVID-19 globally. The number of infections outside of China now exceeds that in China, which has 80,849 cases. Of the 76,219 patients that have recovered from the disease, 66,931 are in China. That means there are presently 80,658 active infections, the majority in Europe and Iran, of which 5,655 have been deemed severe or critical. The number of deaths due to COVID-19 now stands at 6,456. Italy, Iran and now Spain have high daily rates of new deaths, running at or above 4 percent. Other nations like France, Germany and the UK, in the early phases of the pandemic, have fatality index rates that are at 2.5 percent or less. Switzerland reported a daily total of 842 new cases as it joins a list of nations that are seeing a catastrophic rise in new cases. The speed of the pandemic is remarkable. Only four weeks ago, on February 20, a 38-year-old Italian man was the first known victim in that country of COVID-19. The local outbreak in the Lombardy region quickly spiraled out of control over the next two weeks. The number of new cases exploded, followed by an alarming number of deaths. Finally, on March 12, the whole country was placed in lockdown.
Trump Says He Had No Idea His Pandemic Response Team Was Disbanded. What If That’s True? - PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP denied on Friday that he was in any way responsible for his administration’s failure to make coronavirus testing widely available, and professed to have absolutely no idea who had disbanded the White House pandemic response team two years ago (John Bolton), or even if that had happened (it did). The president’s insistence that the buck very much does not stop with him was overshadowed by his false claim that Google had 1,700 engineers working to create a nationwide website that would direct Americans to testing sites nationwide.On Saturday, Trump appeared briefly at another news conference and revealed that he has been tested for the illness, Covid-19, after being exposed last weekend to at least two Brazilian officials who have subsequently tested positive. But Trump’s testy, wounded response to being asked on Friday if he shared the blame for the federal government’s halting effort to stem the spread of the virus is worth pausing on for a moment, because it suggests that he still has little idea, and less interest, in what happens in his own White House.The revealing exchange began when Kristen Welker of NBC News asked Trump about the lag in testing, which Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, had described as “a failing,” the day before.“Do you take responsibility for that?” Welker asked. “Yeah, no,” Trump replied. “I don’t take responsibility at all.” When Yamiche Alcindor of PBS NewsHour followed up by pointing out that Trump’s National Security Council had eliminated a team responsible for global health security, which was created by his predecessor to coordinate the response to pandemic threats, the president took offense and denied even knowing if such a thing had taken place. “You said that you don’t take responsibility, but you did disband the White House pandemic office, and the officials that were working in that office left this administration abruptly. So what responsibility do you take to that?” Alcindor asked. “And the officials that worked in that office said that you, that the White House lost valuable time because that office was disbanded. What do you make of that?” “Well, I just think it’s a nasty question,” Trump replied. “And when you say me — I didn’t do it. We have a group of people I could —” “It’s your administration,” Alcindor interjected. “I could ask perhaps,” Trump continued. “It’s my administration, but I could perhaps ask Tony about that, because I don’t know anything about it,” the president said, gesturing towards Dr. Fauci, who was not involved in disbanding the team, but had expressed regret that it was no longer there. “I mean, you say we did that. I don’t know anything about it,” Trump added.
Coronavirus forces airlines to consider a once unthinkable possibility — halting US flights - Airlines around the world are racing to preserve cash as demand for flights craters after political leaders turn to increasingly draconian measures that have disrupted daily life in an effort to stop the spread of COVID-19. Now U.S. airlines, which reported record revenues earlier this year, are grappling with an unthinkable scenario. On Sunday, acting Homeland Security Secretary Chad Wolf said “all options remain on the table” when asked at a White House press conference whether the administration is considering a halt of domestic air travel. A day earlier, President Donald Trump said the American public should avoid unnecessary travel. Early Monday, the administration expanded its 30-day ban on most European visitors to Ireland and the U.K., an unprecedented curb on international travel. It is not certain that the administration will take that action — which would be the first time the U.S. instituted a blanket air travel ban since the wake of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks — or whether such a ban would last two weeks, a month or longer. But several executives told CNBC they are considering all possibilities. Trump, speaking on Saturday, said he is considering potential travel curbs to areas hard hit by the coronavirus, which has infected roughly 170,000 across the world and killed more than 6,500, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. In the U.S., it has spread to roughly 3,800 and killed at least 69, according to Hopkins. Abrupt cuts across airlines would reverberate around the economy. U.S. airlines alone employed some 747,000 people as of the end of January, according to federal data, but as carriers park aircraft and defer orders, manufacturers as large as Boeing and Airbus and their suppliers are now on shakier footing. Airlines expect to receive some form of government support but it’s not yet clear what form it will take. Executives have warned the drop in demand is more severe than after 9/11.
Peter Navarro to bring executive order to Trump to reduce US foreign dependency on medicines - White House trade advisor Peter Navarro told CNBC on Monday that he’s preparing an executive order that would help relocate medical supply chains from overseas to the U.S. Navarro’s proposal comes as Berlin said it’s trying to stop Washington from persuading a German company seeking a coronavirus vaccine to move its research to the U.S. German government sources told Reuters on Sunday the Trump administration was looking into how it could gain access to a potential vaccine being developed by a German firm, CureVac. Navarro, in a “Squawk Box” interview, brushed off a question about the administration’s reported overtures toward CureVac and instead spoke about the general need to manufacture more medical equipment and supplies in the U.S. “What I can speak to is this broader, interesting issue of how dependent the United States of America is on the global supply chain, not just for its medicines but for its medical supplies and medical equipment,” Navarro said. “The essence of the order … is to bring all of that home so that we don’t have to worry about foreign dependency,” he said, adding that 70% of the ingredients used in advanced pharmaceuticals “comes from abroad.” The increased demand for medical face masks due to the coronavirus, for example, demonstrates the challenges of relying on foreign supply chains, Navarro argued.
Trump Invokes Defense Production Act to Fight Wuhan Coronavirus Pandemic --President Trump on Wednesday invoked the Defense Production Act to mobilize the private sector to manufacture goods needed to fight the Wuhan coronavirus pandemic. The legislation allows the president to require production and orders from certain industries to prioritize the response to a national emergency. Originally passed in 1950, the legislation was first used in the Korean War and has been activated in response to various crises since that time. “Right after we finish this conference, I’ll be signing it and it’s prepared to go,” Trump said at a press briefing at the White House. The legislation will be used to ramp up production of medical supplies needed to treat coronavirus patients. Trump’s announcement came minutes before former vice president Joe Biden’s campaign released its own statement urging Trump to invoke the DPA. During the press briefing, Trump said he viewed himself as a “war-time president.” “We had the best economy we ever had, and one day you have to close it down to defeat this enemy,” Trump told reporters.The Trump administration is working with Republican senators on a possible $1 trillion economic stimulus to offset the economic impact of the pandemic. While details of the stimulus have not been finalized, the administration has been pushing for direct cash paymentsto Americans below a certain income level to help keep the economy afloat.
Schumer Requests $8.5 Billion in Coronavirus Funds, Accuses Trump Admin. of 'Dangerous Incompetence' - Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer on Wednesday requested $8.5 billion in emergency funding to combat the coronavirus, more than three times the amount the White House has requested. Schumer sent his request Wednesday to the Senate Appropriations Committee. The emergency funding includes $1.5 billion for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, $3 billion for the Public Health and Social Services Emergency Fund, $2 billion in reimbursements for coronavirus-related spending by states and local governments, $1 billion for the National Institutes of Health to develop a vaccine, and $1 billion for the U.S. Agency for International Development as an emergency reserve fund. During a floor speech, Schumer accused the Trump administration of “towering and dangerous incompetence” in its approach to addressing the virus. “Here in the United States, the Trump administration has been caught flat-footed. The administration has no plan to deal with the coronavirus, no plan and seemingly no urgency to develop one,” Schumer said. “This proposal brings desperately-needed resources to the global fight against coronavirus. Americans need to know that their government is prepared to handle the situation before coronavirus spreads to our communities. I urge the Congress to move quickly on this proposal. Time is of the essence,” the New York Democrat said of his funding request in a statement. The Trump administration requested only $2.5 billion to protect Americans against the virus, $1.25 billion in new funding and the remainder appropriated from current health programs, including $535 million from funding currently earmarked to combat the Ebola virus. Schumer’s request would not siphon any funding from current health programs.
Trump Admin. Considering Sending $2,000 to Certain Americans During Wuhan Coronavirus Pandemic: Report - The economic stimulus package to fight damage from the Wuhan coronavirus pandemic under consideration by the White House includes a proposal to send two $1,000 checks to certain Americans, the Washington Post reported on Wednesday.Checks would be sent to Americans below a certain income level, although it is not yet clear what that level will be. The Trump administration’s stimulus currently calls for $500 billion in cash payments, with another $500 billion for various businesses including $50 million for the airline industry, which has been particularly hurt by the pandemic. Senate Democrats proposed a $750 million stimulus package on Monday, while on Tuesday the Trump administration floated an $850 million stimulus. Talks between administration officials and Congress are ongoing, with the current proposal amounting to an injection of $1 trillion into the U.S. economy.Republican senators have called for immediate assistance to Americans affected by the pandemic, although the specifics of the assistance are still being debated.“Direct assistance to working people is a good start, but FAMILIES with kids need more relief,” Senator Josh Hawley (R., Mo.) wrote on Twitter in comment on the Post‘s report. “A working single mom with three kids needs more support than an unmarried computer programmer living in his parents’ basement. Help families.”Hawley has called for monthly payments to working families below a certain income bracket, with payments gradated based on family size and married or single-parent status. Senators Tom Cotton (R., Ark.) and Mitt Romney (R., Utah) have each called for direct cash payments of a fixed amount. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin has repeatedly stressed the importance of getting cash directly to Americans who need it. “Americans need cash now and the president wants to get cash now. And I mean now, in the next two weeks,” Mnuchin said at a White House press conference on Tuesday.
Senate passes House's coronavirus aid bill, sending it to Trump - The Senate passed the House’s coronavirus aid package on Wednesday, sending it to President Trump, who is expected to sign it. Senators voted 90-8 on the bill that passed the House in a middle-of-the-night Saturday vote but needed dozens of pages of corrections and changes, which cleared the chamber on Monday. The measure, which the Joint Committee on Taxation estimates will cost $104 billion, is the second package that Congress has passed amid growing concerns about the widespread coronavirus outbreak in the United States that has already bludgeoned the economy. The vote on the second package comes as senators are already working on “phase three,” with Senate Republicans wanting to pass that next week. The third coronavirus bill is expected to include help for impacted small businesses, industries and families, including direct cash payments for Americans. McConnell has created GOP task forces for drafting the bill. Republicans briefed their colleagues during a closed-door lunch Wednesday and are expected to hand over their work by Thursday. The majority leader told reporters after the lunch that Republicans were "getting close" and "hoping to be together shortly." The bill approved Wednesday bolsters unemployment insurance and guarantees free diagnostic testing for the coronavirus. It also provides up to 10 days of paid sick leave for some workers. It caps that at companies with 500 employees and would allow for those with fewer than 50 to apply for a waiver. But the bill’s path through the Senate wasn’t without drama. The House bill, which was negotiated by Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, sparked fierce opposition from some Senate Republicans, who were largely sidelined from the talks. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) tipped his hand to the frustration ahead of Wednesday’s vote. “I will vote to pass their bill. This is a time for urgent bipartisan action, and in this case, I do not believe we should let perfection be the enemy of something that will help even a subset of workers,” McConnell said. “However, the House’s bill has real shortcomings. It does not even begin to cover all of the Americans who will need help in the days ahead,” he added. GOP senators have bristled, in particular, over the paid sick leave provisions over concerns that it will negatively impact small businesses, some of which are already facing closure and potential layoffs because of the economic impact of the coronavirus.
Trump signs coronavirus aid package with paid sick leave, free testing - President Trump on Wednesday signed into law a multibillion-dollar emergency aid package aimed at helping Americans impacted by the coronavirus. The House-passed measure was approved by the Senate earlier Wednesday and includes provisions offering paid leave benefits for Americans, bolstered unemployment benefits and free diagnostic testing for the virus. “The [Families First Coronavirus Response Act] makes emergency supplemental appropriations and other changes to law to help the Nation respond to the coronavirus outbreak,” Trump said in a statement Wednesday evening announcing he had signed the bill. The bipartisan bill, which is the product of days of negotiations last week between Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), is the second such legislative package passed by Congress to address the COVID-19 outbreak. Trump endorsed the legislation on Friday before it was passed in a late-night vote in the House. The lower chamber approved technical corrections to the bill in a vote late Monday, and the Senate passed it in a 90-8 vote Wednesday afternoon. A handful of Republican senators voted against the legislation. The bill’s signing comes as the Trump administration is negotiating with Senate Republicans on an economic stimulus package to assist small businesses, American workers and specific sectors such as the airline industry impacted by the coronavirus. The White House has proposed a $1 trillion stimulus package, which would include sending direct cash payments to Americans. The coronavirus has infected more than 7,000 Americans, forced restaurants and other businesses to close, and caused airlines to significantly cut back on flights in recent days. Trump last week declared a national emergency over the virus and on Monday recommended that Americans avoid restaurants and bars, cut back on unnecessary travel, and restrict gatherings to 10 or fewer people over the next few weeks as the federal government tries to mitigate the spread of COVID-19.
Mnuchin confirms plan for $1,000 cash payments to all Americans -The White House's coronavirus stimulus plan could see every American get two $1,000 checks from the government within nine weeks, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said Thursday."This is an unprecedented situation, where for good reason the government has instructed major parts of the economy to close down so that we can win this fight against this virus," he said in an appearance on Fox Business."While we're doing that we understand there are impacts on hard-working Americans, and the president is determined to support them," he added.The $1 trillion package the White House and Senate Republicans plan on presenting would provide every adult American with a $1,000 check, plus another $500 for each child. A family with two parents and two children, for example, would get $3,000."As soon as Congress passes this we'd get this out in three weeks, and then six weeks later, if the president still has a national emergency, we'll deliver another $3,000," Mnuchin said. Earlier in the week, Mnuchin had pointed to a two-week target to send out cash payments.That portion would amount to half of the bill's overall spending.Another $300 billion in the bill would be used to help businesses keep people on payroll and offer loan forgiveness for those that do after the crisis ends.Already, unemployment claims have shot up by some 33 percent between the first two weeks of March. A final $200 billion would be devoted to securing lending to airlines and other critical industries hit hard by the pandemic.
Senate GOP mulls forgivable loans to businesses to halt layoffs, bankruptcies - Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) said Tuesday that Senate Republicans are crafting a plan to provide forgivable loans to businesses derailed by the coronavirus outbreak through a $1-trillion economic rescue plan.In a series of Thursday tweets, Rubio detailed how GOP senators plan to support companies that could be forced to lay off workers as the measures to slow the coronavirus pandemic shut down entire industries across the U.S.Rubio said that the loans would be issued through banks, credit unions and other private-sector financial firms to help speed the process of distributing funds. If a business uses the loan to keep workers on payroll, pay their rent or handle other necessary expenses, Rubio added, they would not be forced to pay back the loan.The overall goal was to “Get cash to small business [as] fast & easy as possible so they don’t have to lay people off,” tweeted Rubio, who is spearheading the Senate GOP’s deliberations on business aid.“If they use it for that purpose doesn’t have to be paid back.”President Trump and lawmakers are scrambling to get ahead of a likely flood of layoffs and business failures driven by the coronavirus pandemic and the drastic measures needed to slow its progress.Claims for unemployment insurance spiked by 70,000 in the week between March 8 and 13, with numbers almost certain to soar as a rising number of restaurants, bars, entertainment venues, hotels and other businesses are forced to close or limit service for weeks, if not months.“There are a lot of enterprises that are hurting right now, and they’re going to start laying off people unless we get some money to them,” said Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) on the “The Hugh Hewitt Show” on Thursday. “We’d rather have the employers paying those people than have them show up to the unemployment office.”
U.S. lawmakers pushing ahead with third coronavirus aid package - (Reuters) - U.S. lawmakers were rushing ahead on Thursday with forging a massive economic stimulus measure to counter the destructive impact of the coronavirus, with the Senate’s leader vowing not to let the chamber adjourn until the mission is accomplished. Although a few lawmakers expressed doubts about the yawning sums under discussion, with one Republican warning this week against “shoveling money out of a helicopter,” the Senate’s majority Republicans said they hoped to have a proposal agreed on with President Donald Trump’s administration by sometime on Thursday. Only then did they plan to start negotiations with Democrats. Top Democrats said that was backward. Both House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said the fastest route to finishing a package would be to have the leaders of both parties and chambers in talks with the White House. Schumer has proposed his own $750 million plan of action that would expand jobless benefits, help small businesses and fund childcare for healthcare workers. The Trump administration is pushing for a package of some $1.3 trillion in aid to help businesses and individual Americans devastated by the virus. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Republican, said the Senate would remain in session until it finishes the legislation and sends it to the House. “I would recommend senators stay around, close,” he said on the Senate floor. “We are moving rapidly because the situation demands it.” Congress already passed an $8.3 billion measure earlier this month to combat the spread of the new coronavirus and develop vaccines for the highly contagious disease that has infected almost 8,000 people in the United States and killed at least 145. The outbreak has paralyzed large sectors of the U.S. economy and led to fears of a global recession. On Wednesday, lawmakers approved and Trump signed another $105 billion-plus plan to limit the damage from the coronavirus pandemic through free testing, paid sick leave and expanded safety-net spending.
Senate negotiators near agreement on keeping rebates in coronavirus stimulus package - In a major victory for President Trump, Senate negotiators are nearing a deal to provide $1,000 cash rebates in the phase-three stimulus deal and match the cost of the program with a major expansion of unemployment benefits. The emerging deal being hammered out by Senate negotiators would provide one round of $1,000 checks to eligible adults at a cost of approximately $250 billion and match that with a similarly costly expansion of unemployment benefits — in the ballpark of $250 billion, according to two sources familiar with the talks. As a result, the entire cost of the stimulus package is expected to swell well above the $1 trillion proposed by Trump, possibly to more than $1.2 trillion. The projected cost of the package is not yet certain as negotiators are waiting for a cost estimate from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), said a person familiar with the talks. The total cost of expanding unemployment benefits remains uncertain until the CBO issues a budgetary projection, negotiators said. The partisan disagreement over whether to provide direct economic assistance in the form of rebate checks or unemployment insurance was a major sticking point heading into the talks. The progress both sides made on the issue signals that a deal is possible this weekend, even though negotiators failed to meet Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's (R-Ky.) Friday midnight deadline to get a deal in “principle.” Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin initially proposed providing two rebate checks of $1,000 to eligible individuals at a cost of roughly $500 billion to boost the economy in the midst of the coronavirus crisis; however, senate Republicans shaved down that amount, instead proposing a single payment of $1,200 to eligible adults and $500 for claimed dependents. But Senate Democrats objected and said the relief to individuals would be best distributed through the unemployment benefits system. “One-time payments are not what people need. What people need is a paycheck. They need ongoing income until this is done. That’s what they need,” White House legislative affairs director Eric Ueland said negotiators “are much closer at the end of today than we were when we started this morning.” Ueland said negotiators “made tremendous progress today on unemployment insurance.” He also said that the Democratic proposal to significantly ramp up unemployment insurance benefits requires “some technical work that needs to be done overnight,” and added that the CBO “needs to give us some answers on dollars and cents.”
Senate unable to reach coronavirus stimulus deal before Friday deadline - Senators left on Friday night without a deal on a mammoth stimulus package, ensuring they miss a midnight deadline to get a deal in “principle.” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) established midnight Friday as the deadline for getting a deal on the broad contours of the package as Congress tried to move at "warp speed" amid growing concern about the spread of the coronavirus. But senators and administration officials emerged from closed-door meetings on Friday night conceding that there were too many unresolved issues and that the talks would carry over into Saturday. Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) said as he left the building on Friday that there were still “three or four” outstanding issues. Eric Ueland, the White House director of legislative affairs, indicated that talks would continue on Saturday. "We believe there is a broad consensus but there is no deal yet,” he said. The chances for an agreement appeared increasingly unlikely as Friday night wore on. A GOP leadership aide said roughly two hours before the deadline that “significant progress” had been made, but acknowledged that they did not have a deal. “The bipartisan groups have made significant progress and will continue to work through the night,” the aide said. Roughly a half an hour later, Grassley, Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) and administration officials acknowledged that they were breaking their meetings for the night without a deal. Grassley and Wyden, who oversaw the working group for tax-related provisions, will reconvene on Saturday morning. Congress is under intense pressure to move quickly as the coronavirus has spread across the United States, with more than 19,000 cases and 260 deaths as of Friday evening. The economy, meanwhile, has cratered with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 9,000 points in the past month.
Colorado governor labels Trump 'socialist' over 'corporate bailouts' during coronavirus Colorado Gov. Jared Polis (D) on Friday slammed President Trump as a "socialist," suggesting the president is more interested in offering "bailouts" to large corporations than small businesses impacted by the coronavirus. "I think that the government should not own the means of production. I'm not a socialist like Donald Trump. I think that's a very dangerous way to go," Polis told MSNBC's Chuck Todd. Democrats have criticized the latest Republican economic relief proposal for dedicating billions of stimulus dollars to large corporations like airlines. Trump said Thursday that he supports the idea of the government taking an equity stake in certain companies accepting federal aid but did not specify which companies. "I think that rather than these corporate bailouts we should talk about helping people, Chuck," Polis said. "That means workers, that means small business owners, it means everybody." "Frankly I like this idea of sending everybody $2,000, I like the idea of temporarily increasing the SNAP benefits, emergency loans to small businesses, especially those in food and hospitality that have been interrupted," he said. "I think those are the kind of measures, rather than using this as an excuse to implement socialist measures across corporate America."
Benefit-Cost Analysis and the Coronavirus -- We are in the middle of a flurry of decision-making on how to deal with COVID-19. After much resistance, officials are now canceling public events, closing schools and discouraging other activities that put us in contact with each other. Travel restrictions and possible shutdowns of workplaces, as we’ve seen in Italy, may be up next. It’s interesting we haven’t heard anything about benefit-cost analysis in all this. Nearly all economists profess to think that BCA is the single best decision method. Almost every introductory economics textbook is built around benefit-cost thinking, and for decades federal regulations have mandated BCA for proposals with significant economic impacts. But now we are facing immense choices—what could have a more drastic impact than shutting down most of the economy by fiat?—and BCA is nowhere to be found. As a public service, here’s a quick and dirty. Coronavirus policy is primarily about saving lives, right? So, if you believe in this sort of thing, the official “value of a statistical life” (VSL) as determined by the Environmental Protection Agency is $7.4 million. According to BCA wisdom, we should spend up to this amount to save the life of a currently unknown (statistical) person, but not a penny more.* In order to get a first impression, suppose the more stringent measures proposed will shave 1% off US GDP for the year. Based on last year’s figure, that would eliminate $214 billion in economic value. Using the value of life metric, that means we shouldn’t do this unless we expect to save at least 28,919 lives. If not, let’em die. Actually, I think it’s likely that we will see even greater economic costs from stringent social distancing policies, especially taking into account that the economy would probably have grown by a couple percent or so this year had the virus not struck. Maybe these actions would pass the BCA test, maybe not.
Senate Democrat introduces legislation requiring permanent pandemic coordinator - Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) introduced legislation on Thursday requiring the administration to appoint a permanent pandemic prevention and response coordinator to the National Security Council (NSC) amid concerns over the coronavirus outbreak. The proposed legislation follows President Trump’s decision in 2018 to scrap the post, which was first created under the Obama administration to combat the Ebola crisis. “Had the Trump administration not eliminated the global health chief position on the NSC in 2018, our response to the coronavirus pandemic would have been swifter and better informed,” Markey said in a statement. “This coronavirus is not the first, and will not be the last biothreat we face. The outcome will be inevitably better both for this outbreak and the next if we have in place a single qualified individual to help lead our global health efforts at the highest levels of our federal government.” Trump’s decision to eliminate the NSC position was thrust into the spotlight last week when he was pressed on why he disbanded the pandemic response team. While responsibility for monitoring threats from infectious diseases was shifted to another group within the NSC, the move was reportedly interpreted as a downgrading of his administration’s focus on global health security. “Well, I just think it’s a nasty question,” Trump fired back when asked about the closure at a press conference. “I don’t know anything about it. I mean, you say we did that. I don’t know anything about it. Disbanding, no, I don’t know anything about it.”
Second Capitol Hill staffer tests positive for coronavirus --A staff member in Rep. David Schweikert's (R-Ariz.) D.C. office has tested positive for COVID-19, the congressman said Sunday. The staff member is resting "comfortably at home and following guidance from local health officials," Schweikert said in a statement. Schweikert said his D.C. office will be closed with staff members working remotely until further notice. He said staff at his Scottsdale, Ariz. will also work remotely out of "an abundance of caution." Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) said Wednesday a member of her D.C. office tested positive for coronavirus. Cantwell's announcement marked the first known instance of a congressional staffer getting the virus. Mayor Muriel Bowser declared a state of emergency in D.C. on Wednesday. A total of 16 cases of COVID-19 were confirmed in D.C. as of Saturday, according to the D.C. health department. Bowser announced restrictions on restaurants and bars Sunday, including capping gatherings at restaurants and bars to no more than 250 people and prohibiting bar seating and service to standing patrons. Former House Intelligence Committee attorney Daniel Goldman said Sunday he tested positive for COVID-19.
Florida Republican becomes first lawmaker to test positive for coronavirus — Florida Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R) announced Wednesday he tested positive for COVID-19 after developing symptoms Saturday. He is the first member of Congress to test positive for the novel coronavirus. Shortly after his announcement another House member, Rep. Rep. Ben McAdams (D-Utah), 45, announced he had also tested positive for the virus. Diaz-Balart, 58, has been in self-quarantine in his Washington, D.C., apartment since Friday. "On Saturday evening, Congressman Diaz-Balart developed symptoms, including a fever and a headache. Just a short while ago, he was notified that he has tested positive for COVID-19," read a statement released by his office. According to the statement, Diaz-Balart did not return to Florida "out of an abundance of caution." Diaz-Balart's wife, Tia, is a cancer and chronic lung disease survivor, both "conditions that put her at exceptionally high risk."
Scalise to self-quarantine in response to Diaz-Balart test - House Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) said Wednesday evening that he will self-quarantine for the next two weeks after Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart(R-Fla.) tested positive for the coronavirus, citing a meeting between the two congressmen last week.“I have just been informed that my colleague, Mario Diaz-Balart, tested positive for COVID-19. Since I had an extended meeting with him late last week, out of an abundance of caution, I have decided it would be best to self-quarantine based on the guidance of the Attending Physician of the United State Congress,” Scalise said in a statement. “Fortunately, I am not experiencing any symptoms, and will continue working remotely on Congress’ coronavirus response, and will remain in close contact with the Trump administration’s coronavirus task force, my colleagues in Congress, as well as local officials and health professionals in Louisiana to ensure that swift action to address this crisis continues,” he added.
Utah Democrat becomes second lawmaker to test positive for coronavirus - Rep. Ben McAdams (D-Utah) announced Wednesday he tested positive for the coronavirus after developing symptoms on Saturday. McAdams, 45, is the second lawmaker to test positive for COVID-19. Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.), 58, announced his diagnosis shortly before the Utah Democrat. McAdams said in a statement he developed mild cold-like symptoms and consulted with his physician on Sunday. He had isolated himself in his home and conducted meetings via phone, he said. “My symptoms got worse and I developed a fever, a dry cough and labored breathing and I remained self-quarantine,” he said in a statement. “On Tuesday, my doctor instructed me to get tested for COVID-19 and following his referral, I went to the local testing clinic for the test,” he said in a statement. “Today I learned I tested positive. McAdams said, despite having the virus, he is committed to continuing working from home until he is cleared to end his quarantine. He went on to urge the people of Utah to take the virus seriously "and follow of the recommendations we’re getting from the [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] and other health experts." A number of House lawmakers are pushing for members to be able to vote remotely due to the national health crisis in an attempt to cut down the spread of the virus. But the push has been met with resistance from leaders in both parties.
15 Among Brazilian Delegation That Met With Trump Now Have Coronavirus - It's been eleven days since the Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and his delegation met with Trump and many White House staffers at Mar-a-Lago on March 7. First it was Nestor Forster, Brazil’s Chargé d'Affaires in Washington, and Nelsinho Trad, who both tested positive for Covid-19, and as of early this week it was further announced Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretary Marcos Troyjo has been confirmed for the virus. President Bolsonaro reportedly tested negative, and so did Trump; but Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, who had shaken hands with many among the Brazilian delegation members during their Florida trip, tested positive last last week and went into quarantine. Senior White House correspondent for Bloomberg Jennifer Jacobs now says at least 15 among the Brazilian delegation that had met with Trump's team has now been confirmed for coronavirus, citing Brazil's Globo. "General Heleno, 72, confirms he has coronavirus... In recent days, the minister went to into quarantine and has kept in touch with staff and authorities,"Globo reports.And Bloomberg elsewhere confirms "Brazil’s top security official is the 15th member of President Jair Bolsonaro’s recent delegation to the U.S. to test positive for coronavirus.""General Augusto Heleno, 72, said he’s undergoing additional testing to confirm the result. He joined Bolsonaro at a dinner with U.S. President Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago on March 7 and has since maintained a normal work schedule, including meetings at the presidential palace," the report adds. Newsweek reports the list among the Bolsonaro delegation that have tested positive so far as follows:
Pence staffer tests positive for coronavirus - An official working for Vice President Pence has tested positive for the coronavirus, his office announced Friday, becoming the first known positive test to date for a White House staffer. “This evening we were notified that a member of the Office of the Vice President tested positive for the Coronavirus," Pence's press secretary, Katie Miller, said in a statement. "Neither President Trump nor Vice President Pence had close contact with the individual. Further contact tracing is being conducted in accordance with CDC guidelines," the spokeswoman added. The positive test reflects the degree to which the virus is spreading across the country, including to those in proximity to the country's leaders. The news comes days after two congressmen tested positive for the virus, prompting several other lawmakers to self-quarantine. Both Trump and Pence previously interacted with lawmakers who have self-quarantined after coming into contact with an individual with the virus, and both posed for a photo with a Brazilian official earlier this month at the president's Mar-a-Lago club in Florida who has since tested positive. Pence said this week he had not been tested for coronavirus, citing guidance from the White House doctor. Trump was tested last week, despite the White House physician saying there was no need and that his interactions were low risk for transmission. The White House said Saturday that the test was negative. More than 16,600 Americans have tested positive for the virus as of Friday afternoon, and more than 200 have died from the virus, according to The New York Times.
US general: Afghanistan deployments paused to protect troops from coronavirus - The U.S.-led mission in Afghanistan is temporarily stopping the movement of troops into the country as officials work to stem the spread of the coronavirus pandemic, the top U.S. general in Afghanistan confirmed Thursday. In a statement, Gen. Scott Miller, commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan, said the decision also means some troops may not be able to leave Afghanistan. “To preserve our currently healthy force, Resolute Support is making the necessary adjustments to temporarily pause personnel movement into theater,” Miller said, adding the coalition is establishing pre-deployment screenings. “In some cases, these measures will necessitate some service members remaining beyond their scheduled departure dates to continue the mission.” As of Thursday, 21 Resolute Support personnel are exhibiting flu-like symptoms and are in isolation, he said. There is no lab to analyze coronavirus tests in Afghanistan, so samples are being flown to a U.S. military testing facility in Germany or other certified civilian testing facilities. Miller also said 1,500 multinational troops, civilians and contractors who arrived in Afghanistan in the past week are in quarantine, but stressed that the step was taken “out of an abundance of caution, not because they are sick.” Other measures to protect Resolute Support personnel include conducting meetings with Afghan partners using “technical means” rather than in person. The coalition has also limited base access to only “mission-essential” personnel and reorganized to create physical distance between people. “Resolute Support leaders at all levels are evaluating and assessing the impacts of COVID-19,” Miller said. “Our priorities are clear: protecting the force and protecting our collective national interests.”
Coronavirus: Trump says coronavirus crisis may last all summer - US President Donald Trump has said the nationwide coronavirus emergency could last until the end of the summer or even longer. He said Americans over the next 15 days should not gather in groups of more than 10 and avoid bars, restaurants, food courts, gyms and crowds. At the White House, Mr Trump said the country is facing "an invisible enemy" that is "so contagious". The US has so far had more than 4,600 cases of the virus and 85 deaths. There have been more than 180,000 confirmed cases of Covid-19 globally and over 7,100 deaths, according to a tally from Johns Hopkins University. Under the US coronavirus task force's other recommendations announced by Mr Trump on Monday: All older Americans are urged to stay home, while work and schooling for everyone should be from home Discretionary travel, shopping trips and social visits should be avoided and people should stay away from nursing homes or retirement facilities Anyone in a household who tests positive for the virus should remain at home along with everyone who lives there "We've made the decision to further toughen the guidelines and blunt the infection now," a sombre-sounding Mr Trump told reporters. "We'd much rather be ahead of the curve than behind it." Asked how long the emergency would last, Mr Trump - who previously predicted the outbreak would be over in weeks - told reporters: "They think August, could be July, could be longer than that." White House coronavirus response co-ordinator Dr Deborah Birx, who joined the president, said: "If everybody in America does what we ask for over the next 15 days, we will see a dramatic difference." She issued an appeal directly to millennials, asking them to limit social contact even though they are at lower risk of suffering if they contract the virus. "They are the core people that will stop this virus," she said. "We really want people to be separated."
Coronavirus shock will likely claim 3 million jobs by summer: Policy is needed now to curb further losses - At this point, a coronavirus recession is inevitable. But the policy response can determine how deep it is, how long it lasts, and how rapidly the economy bounces back from it. If this response includes enough fiscal stimulus that is well-targeted and sustained so long as the economy remains weak, job loss will be substantially reduced relative to any scenario where policymakers drag their feet. Even with moderate fiscal stimulus, we’re likely to see 3 million jobs lost by summertime. Keeping this number down and allowing any job loss to be quickly recouped after the crisis ends should spur policymakers to act. Put simply, the federal government needs to finance a much larger part of household consumption in coming months, transfer significant fiscal aid to state governments, and ramp up direct government purchases (particularly on items helpful in fighting the epidemic). Currently, the closely watched Goldman Sachs economic outlook is forecasting 0% growth for the first quarter of this year and −5% contraction (expressed as an annualized rate) for the second quarter. Given the cratering of demand already evident in data from restaurant reservations and airlines and accommodations, this may already be an overly optimistic forecast, but we’ll stick with it for now. This forecast implies that the economy will shrink by roughly 1.25% from January to June (2.5% at annualized rates for half a year). Given that productivity growth (or output growth divided by hours of work) has been rising at roughly 1.25% in recent years, output growth of 0.75% is needed just to keep job growth from falling below zero in these months. (The intuition is that if output growth was zero for an entire year, and the amount of output produced in a given hour rose by 1.25%, then 1.25% fewer hours of work would be needed in the economy.) If output growth actually contracts by 1.25% between January and June, this implies a loss in employment of roughly 2% (1.25% reduction from output contraction and 0.75% reduction from productivity growth), or more than 3 million jobs lost. If the actual number of jobs lost by the end of the summer is anywhere near this large, it will represent a pace of job loss comparable to the very worst months of the Great Recession. The unique nature of a coronavirus-driven recession means that the numbers of job losses could diverge substantially from these established, mechanical models of economic forecasts. But this is not cause for complacency—some forecasts for growth in coming quarters are even a bit worse than the Goldman Sachs projection.
Every state will lose jobs as a result of the coronavirus: Policymakers must take action - Workers across the country have already lost their jobs as businesses temporarily shutter in response to the social distancing measures necessary to stop the spread of coronavirus—a trend which can be mitigated if policymakers act quickly. Expectations of just how many jobs will be lost are rapidly evolving. Goldman Sachs forecasts that the economy will contract by 2.5% over the first half of this year—which we estimate will translate into a loss of 3 million jobs by June. An even bleaker forecast from Deutsche Bank, which is in line with projections from JPMorgan, suggests that 7.5 million jobs will be lost by the summer. In this post, we attempt to predict the state-level impacts of these losses using the midpoint of these two forecasts—an estimated 5.25 million jobs lost. We have distributed this projected job loss across states to provide a sense of the magnitude of the state-level shock, shown in Figure A. The coronavirus shock that is causing this recession is broad-based; the effects will likely be felt in every industry and geography. Still, workers in certain industries will be disproportionately affected—in particular, workers in food service, accommodations, and brick-and-mortar retail. As a result, states where these industries make up a larger share of employment, such as Florida, Hawaii, and Nevada, will be particularly hard hit. In Nevada, where two out of every five jobs are in leisure, hospitality, or retail, the state will likely lose 5.3% of private-sector jobs. This disproportionate impact matters for our estimation of job loss by state. To capture both the expansive effects of this recession and the outsize impact on the leisure, hospitality, and retail industries, we provide three measures of projected state job loss: one that distributes the national estimate based on each state’s share of total private employment; one based instead on their share of leisure, hospitality, and retail employment; and the average of those two measures. Figure A displays the average measure and Table 1shows all three job-loss projections. Both the figure and table also show the leisure, hospitality, and retail industries’ share of private-sector employment and the projected job losses as a share of private-sector employment in each state. The data presented here reflect our most recent total job-loss estimate of 5.25 million. As our understanding of the situation evolves, you can use our methodology to distribute other estimates of total job loss across states by inputting a national estimate into this spreadsheet.
Manufacturers call for $1.4T in assistance - The National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) is asking the federal government to create a $1.4 trillion fund in loans to provide liquidity to manufacturers and small businesses struggling through the coronavirus pandemic. The Manufacturing Resiliency Fund would protect the nearly 13 million men and women working in the manufacturing industry, according to NAM. “This is a crisis unlike anything we’ve seen, and it demands a response of historic proportion,” NAM CEO Jay Timmons said in a statement. NAM is also asking the government to designate manufacturing supply chains as “essential” to help mitigate interruptions in providing the health and safety supplies during the outbreak. NAM released its updated and expanded “COVID-19 Policy Action Plan Recommendations,” building on recommendations first released on March 9. It suggested five key policy areas where legislative and administrative action would provide relief for the manufacturing industry and establish a foundation for future public health emergencies. That includes recognizing manufacturers’ critical role in the coronavirus response by creating the $1.4 trillion fund. It also proposes protecting manufacturers from economic collapse by delaying federal tax payments for 90 days, among other measures, ensuring economic security for workers by allowing companies to pay a portion of wages to underemployed workers, reducing regulatory burdens by directing the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to provide reporting flexibility, and setting the stage for economic growth. NAM is also calling for tax credit for employers who continue to pay workers who are quarantined or during periods when business is closed, enhance tax deductions for employers who add equipment like cleaning products, and protect employers under medical privacy laws, among other requests. Chamber of Commerce CEO Tom Donohue offered guidance to President Trump on Wednesday by recommending the government designate “essential businesses and services” and “essential infrastructure” during the coronavirus outbreak. Multiple other industries are seeking relief because of quarantines and closures due to the coronavirus. The National Retail Federation asked for a direct, government-based loan program and the National Restaurant Association called for financial relief, loans and tax measures to help it combat the crisis. The airline industry this week, through Airlines for America, requested $50 billion in the form of grants, loans and tax relief to weather the coronavirus downturn. And the tourism industry, through the U.S. Travel Association and the American Hotel and Lodging Association, has called for $150 billion in overall relief.
US seeks $3 billion to boost oil producers as prices plunge - — The Trump administration said today that it is seeking $3 billion from Congress to top up the country’s strategic petroleum reserves, potentially propping up U.S. oil producers after crude prices crashed globally. President Donald Trump had directed the Energy Department last week to fill the United States’ emergency stash of crude oil to the top, over objections from congressional Democrats who said he was favoring climate-damaging fossil fuels and the profits of oil giants. Plummeting crude prices benefited U.S. consumers filling up their cars, Trump said Thursday. “But on the other hand, it hurts a great industry, and a very powerful industry,” Trump told reporters. West Texas crude prices fell below $21 a barrel Wednesday after oil producers Russia and Saudi Arabia stepped up pumping, threatening the market share of U.S. oil, and as the coronavirus moved the world toward recession and tamped-down consumer demand for energy. Benchmark crude oil fell $2.79, or 11.1%, to close at $22.43 a barrel Friday. Brent crude oil, the international standard, fell $1.49, or 5.2% to $26.98 a barrel. Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette told reporters Thursday that the move was about filling up the country’s 713.5 million barrel Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a time of cheap oil, not about throwing U.S. oil producers a lifeline in rough markets. The reserves are stashed underground in Texas and Louisiana.
Lawmakers ask Trump administration to help Gulf oil and gas producers - A group of 14 lawmakers is asking the Trump administration to help out the offshore energy industry amid a decline in oil prices linked to international disputes and the coronavirus pandemic. The 13 Republicans and one Democrat sent a letter on Friday to Interior Secretary David Bernhardt asking him to reduce or waive royalties for oil and gas leases in the Gulf of Mexico. “The Department of the Interior has existing authority to temporarily reduce or eliminate royalties set forth in the leases in the Western and Central Planning Areas of the Gulf of Mexico and other lease areas,” the lawmakers wrote. “We urge you to examine the viability of a temporary reduction in royalties as domestic energy producers weather this combination of an [Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries]-driven price war and an epidemic that is driving millions of people around the world into quarantines of one kind or another,” they added. “Such an action in the short term will help mitigate a price war that is sinking prices and decreasing production.” Their letter follows a separate action by the Trump administration that boosts the oil industry at large. On Thursday, the Energy Department announced that it will buy 30 million barrels of oil from producers to be stored in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The Friday letter was signed by Reps. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas), Randy K. Weber (R-Texas), Clay Higgins (R-La.), Mike Johnson (R-La.), Bill Flores (R-Texas), Chip Roy (R-Texas), Bruce Westerman (R-Ark.), Ralph Abraham (R-La.), Kevin Hern (R-Okla.), Jeff Duncan (R-S.C.), Brian Babin (R-Texas), Michael C. Burgess (R-Texas), Michael Cloud (R-Texas) and Lizzie Fletcher (D-Texas). “This call for royalty relief on offshore oil and gas will help ensure that the cost of production isn’t more than the price of the commodities. This is especially important for America’s smaller producers – many of whom are based in Texas – who feel the burden of these royalties the most,” Crenshaw's office said a statement about the letter.
Tourism industry calls for $300B in relief in coronavirus stimulus package - Thousands of travel organizations have teamed up on a letter calling on lawmakers to give the industry $300 billion in federal aid as the Senate negotiates a third coronavirus relief bill. The letter was signed by 6,000 groups, including the U.S. Travel Association and organizations in transportation, lodging, recreation and entertainment, food and beverage, meetings, conferences and business events, travel advising and destination marketing. The groups are calling for the third coronavirus stimulus bill to include $300 billion for enhanced Small Business Administration (SBA) loans to the industry. The U.S. Travel Association and the American Hotel and Lodging Association (AHLA) had called for $150 billion in grants on Tuesday, but the new letter asks for increasing that loan amount as well as more financial assistance for severely impacted businesses through unsecured loans and loan guarantees. Also, it seeks at least $10 billion in airport grants to pay debt service and maintain operations.
Bailout Nation: US Movie Theaters Join Airlines, Hotels And Restaurants In Demanding A Taxpayer Bailout -Back in 2008, when the US government bailed out the US banking sector, it became clear that virtually any industry in America's $18 trillion economy could pass off for "too big to fail." So fast forward to today when the longest expansion in history has mutated in under a month into the biggest market crash since the Great Depression, and sure enough, virtually any industry is trying to get bailed out. Consider this - until today, the US government and by implication US taxpayers, had received bailout requests both direct or indirect from:
- The Airline Industry
- The Public transportation industry
- The Hotel and lodging industry
- The Restaurant Industry
- And, of course, Boeing.
And now, demonstrating just how fucked up everything has become once the government has opened the Pandora's Box of government bailouts, US movie theaters are also demanding a bailout. That's right: movie theaters are now somehow a systemically important industry, one which deserves billions in taxpayer funds. And even if it doesn't, well everyone else is getting bailed out so why not them too. According to AP, the National Association of Theater Owners (also known as NATO, but definitely not to be confused with that other NATO), the trade group that represents most of the industry’s cinemas, said Wednesday that it’s asking for immediate federal help for its chains and its 150,000 employees. The theaters are requesting loan guarantees for exhibitors, tax benefits for employees and funds to compensate for lost ticket sales and concessions.Just because that's how things are done in the US where moral hazard is the name of the game. Every game. The organization said the movie theater industry is "uniquely vulnerable" to the crisis, and needs assistance to weather a near total shutdown of two to three months. It wasn't clear how society would collapse if there were no movie theaters after three months, especially with most Americans now having a streaming service pumping non-stop crap into their TV 24/7, but we are confident McKinsey will be hired soon to come up with a pretty slideshow explaining it all.
Treasury and IRS to delay tax payment deadline by 90 days - Taxpayers will get a three-month reprieve to pay the income taxes they owe for 2019, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Tuesday at a news conference. As part of its coronavirus response, the federal government will give filers 90 days to pay income taxes due on up to $1 million in tax owed, Mnuchin said in Washington. The reprieve on that amount would cover many pass-through entities and small businesses, he said. Corporate filers would get the same length of time to pay amounts due on up to $10 million in taxes owed, Mnuchin said. During that three-month deferral period, taxpayers won’t be subject to interest and penalties, he said. You should still get your 2019 income tax return in to the federal government as soon as possible, especially if you’re due a refund and need cash. “We encourage those Americans who can file their taxes to continue to file their taxes on April 15,” Mnuchin said. “Because for many Americans, you will get tax refunds.” Indeed, the IRS processed more than 65 million income tax returns as of March 6. Of these, 52.7 million filers received tax refunds, averaging $3,012, according to the agency.
ICE pausing most immigration enforcement during coronavirus crisis - Immigration authorities will halt most enforcement across the U.S., shifting efforts to deport only foreign nationals who have committed crimes or pose a threat to public safety, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) said Wednesday. The agency said it will “temporarily adjust” its enforcements beginning Wednesday. Changes will include delaying enforcement actions for individuals who do not pose a public safety risk until after the crisis and using alternatives to detention “as appropriate.” “ICE’s highest priorities are to promote life-saving and public safety activities,” the agency said in a statement. ICE said it will not carry out enforcement operations “at or near health care facilities,” including hospitals, doctors’ offices, accredited health clinics and emergency or urgent care facilities, “except in the most extraordinary of circumstances.” “Individuals should not avoid seeking medical care because they fear civil immigration enforcement,” ICE said. No detainees have tested positive for COVID-19 as of Wednesday, an agency spokesperson confirmed. The shift in the immigration enforcement comes as the outbreak is rapidly spreading across the U.S. There are more than 7,700 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 118 deaths from the virus in the U.S, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.
Immigrants in US detention facilities plea for help as coronavirus pandemic spreads - As the global COVID-19 pandemic continues to spread, hundreds of immigrant detention centers holding over 55,000 people are at high risk for becoming epicenters of the disease. Immigrant detention centers are infamous for their horrific conditions, lack of medical care, and the extremely close quarters—creating excellent conditions for the coronavirus to spread rapidly if even a single person catches the disease. On Thursday night the first ICE officer at a New Jersey detention facility tested positive for COVID-19, meaning that it is likely that the virus has already taken hold in detention facilities across the country, putting thousands of lives at immediate risk. The immigrant advocacy group, RAICES, the Refugee and Immigrant Center for Education and Legal Services, has been working with immigrants in detention centers across the US, advocating for their release in the face of this pandemic. One 40-year-old detainee from the Democratic Republic of the Congo described the situation facing him, his wife and their nine-year-old son. “Here in detention the situation is not good, especially as we hear about the spread of the virus outside of these walls. We can see on the news that the virus is spreading and that there is a serious risk,” he noted. “Here at this detention center, we do not have access to hand sanitizer or masks, or anything else that could protect as we are all stuck together in close quarters. The officials here have not said anything to us about what is happening outside, or any extra precautions that we should take.” In an online press conference held by RAICES on Wednesday, the wife of a detained immigrant reported that the detention facility’s staff have been given masks and hand sanitizer while the immigrants are given nothing.
Immigration policy impedes COVID-19 - U.S. immigration law and its enforcement as currently operated impede public health surveillance and interventions and are likely to thwart adequate measures against COVID-19. Business as usual in the immigration arena almost automatically casts vulnerable persons into conditions that would have appalled health workers a century ago and should alarm policymakers as well as health professionals today. The Department of Homeland Security's Inspector General has found detention facilities "dangerously" overcrowded and lacking adequate hygiene and medical attention. On Jan. 29, Doctors Without Borders reported, "Just steps from the U.S. border in Matamoros, there are thousands of asylum seekers now living in makeshift camps with limited access to shelter or basic health care." However unintended, the system is a jumble of recipes for contagion. Undocumented immigrants in the United States get inadequate or no health care. Many fear to report the illness. Many are likely to fear to cooperate in contact tracing, lest they bring family members and friends to the attention of immigration authorities. Intensified incarceration, despite alternatives, and management failure have resulted in confinement in substandard federal facilities, private facilities, and municipal rent-a-jails. We have dense concentrations of persons and confusion over and direct or indirect exposures. These put at risk those who run the system, those who work in or alongside it, those who get caught up in it, and the general public as well. Foreign visitors, students, and special hires lawfully in the United States are not exempt from enforcement or disease. Many are unaware that their visas die if not especially extended when their schools or workplaces are closed even temporarily. There is a concern in the immigration law community that individuals here on non-immigrant visas for employment or study could be subject to removal if the situations anticipated in their visas are interrupted, even for public health reasons. Federal policymakers should consider whether harsh, arbitrary enforcement in non-egregious immigration cases is worth the cost. This is less quantitative than a qualitative task. The scale is obvious.
ICE officials running unchecked facial recognition searches on Maryland drivers - US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has been using facial-recognition software to search through Maryland’s state database of registered drivers and hunt down undocumented immigrants without seeking state or court approval. The data for driver’s licenses is collected by the Maryland Motor Vehicle Administration (MVA). The software employed by ICE allows an agent to take a photograph of an unidentified person and see if they have a Maryland license and whether they are undocumented. Beginning in 2013 Maryland allowed immigrants to get driver’s licenses without supplying proof of legal immigration status, despite federal guidelines. Since that time, the state has issued over 275,000 licenses. The Washington Post broke the story based on a previously unpublished letter, according to which a top Maryland law enforcement official told state lawmakers in November that ICE officials had logged nearly 100 sessions in the Maryland driver’s license database since 2018, each of which could have included multiple searches. In other states such as Utah, Vermont and Washington, ICE has had access for years to the driver’s license databases but required a state official to actually run the search. In the case of the Maryland database, ICE agents anywhere in the country are able to search through it without seeking approval from state officials. Harrison Rudolph, a senior associate at Georgetown University Law School’s Center on Privacy and Technology, told the Post that it appears that any law enforcement official with access to the National Crime Information Center maintained by the FBI can search the state’s database, calling it “an unprecedented level of access for federal agents—including ICE deportation agents.” According to Maryland Sen. Clarence K. Lam (D-Howard), “They have a wide-open door to be able to search through anything in this database. They’ve not been forthcoming in their willingness to [stop it] or coming up with solutions.” A spokeswoman for ICE, while refusing to go into details, claimed that the agency did not “routinely” use facial-recognition searches for civil immigration enforcement. Given the complete absence of oversight, these assurances cannot be given any value. Further, several immigrants detained by ICE have claimed they were told by law enforcement officials that they were found based on information taken from their driver’s licenses.
Supreme Court to issue opinions as scheduled Monday -- The Supreme Court will break with tradition and issue opinions Monday without taking the bench, a court spokeswoman said Friday.Kathleen Arberg said the justices held their private conference Friday to review petitions, with an unspecified number of the nine participating by telephone. All are healthy, she said, but there was another change in routine because of concerns over the coronavirus: “The justices are temporarily forgoing their traditional handshake.”The court is closed to the public, and the justices have indefinitely postponed two weeks of oral arguments scheduled to begin Monday.A majority of the justices are considered to be in the higher-risk category for coronavirus because of their ages. Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg turned 87 on Sunday, and Justice Stephen G. Breyer is 81. Justice Clarence Thomas is 71, and Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr. will turn 70 on April 1. Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. and Justice Sonia Sotomayor are 65.Typically when the court issues opinions, the justice who wrote the majority opinion reads a summary from the bench. Sometimes, a dissenting justice might also read. The opinions are issued in reverse seniority of the author, so the chief justice goes last if he has written an opinion. That pattern will continue when the opinions are posted on the website, supremecourt.gov, Monday morning beginning at 10. The court does not reveal in advance how many opinions will be issued, nor which cases will be decided. They could be any of the cases the court has heard since the term began in October, and the court has a heavy caseload.
Bloomberg lays off hundreds as coronavirus bears down - Mike Bloomberg’s defunct presidential campaign laid off hundreds more staffers Friday as he announced that that he’s folding his massive battleground operation into the Democratic National Committee. Many of the Bloomberg aides — including those purged in an initial round of dismissals—were holding out hope he would deliver on a promise to keep them on his payroll through November, particularly with the coronavirus baring down. But those hopes were also dashed Friday when the staffers were told in frank conference calls that Bloomberg would not move ahead with his planned super PAC, and instead would cede his state operation to the DNC, including an $18 million infusion to help presumptive nominee Joe Biden. The staffers, who said they were lured to the late-starting campaign with yearlong guarantees of competitive pay and health benefit packages, were invited to apply for jobs with the DNC as part of a “competitive process.” “I guess it’s cheaper to give the DNC $18 million than keep promises because @MikeBloomberg just fired his whole campaign staff — including those of us promised jobs though November on his IE,” Amol Jethwani, a former aide, wrote in a tweet. “Disappointed I don’t have a job. Not surprised that a billionaire is cheating scum.”
Ilhan Omar Under Fire For Marrying Consultant Whose Firm Was Paid Nearly $600K By Her Campaign - Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) has come under renewed fire after marrying Tim Mynett - head of political consulting firm E Street Group, which made approximately $586,000 for a "range of services that included digital advertising, fundraising consulting, digital communications and design," as well as banging their clients behind their wives' backs, apparently. Mynett was personally paid $7,000 directly for fundraising before his firm was hired. Payments to the firm in the 2019-2020 cycle for Omar’s reelection campaign comprised 40 percent of total campaign expenses, federal filings show.Representatives for Omar’s campaign and Mynett’s firm said this week that there was nothing improper about the payments because they were made for legitimate work. -WaPoOn Wednesday, Omar announced on Instagram that she and Mynett had filed for their marriage license that same day, according to the Washington Post.Of note, a campaign finance violation investigation was launched after revelations of their relationship emerged.On Friday, E Street Group co-founder Will Hailer said that the payments from Omar's campaign were for legitimate campaign work, and that most of the advertising-related payments had been passed on to vendors.The firm has about 18 employees and “on any given day, eight or more people could be touching her account at some point, between design, digital ads, social media, email content creation, high-dollar fundraising, political support and many other things that we provide for the campaign, Hailer said. “Similar to what we provide for countless other clients across the country.”Hailer said he and Mynett began working for Omar’s campaign after years of political experience in her district and in Minnesota. –WaPo David Mitriani, Omar's campaign attorney, said in a Thursday memo echoing Hailer's comments that the firm provided legitimate services to the campaign at a fair market value.
RNC rehires firm responsible for massive data breach - The Republican National Committee has rehired a prominent consulting firm it axed after it allowed a massive data breach in 2017. The committee paid $700,000 to Deep Root Analytics last month, according to a senior party official. The expenditure is expected to be reflected on the committee’s next finance report, to be released Friday. Advertisement Following the 2016 election, the Northern Virginia-based media consulting firm took responsibility for accidentally exposing the personal information and political dispositions of nearly 200 million Americans, or around 60 percent of the country’s population. At the time, Deep Root Analytics served as a vendor for the RNC and, along with several other firms, helping to develop highly refined voter data. The data — which included names, birthdays, and personal addresses — was discovered in June 2017 on an Amazon web server by the cyber risk firm UpGuard. UpGuard described the mishap as “perhaps the largest known exposure of voter information in history.” The RNC moved swiftly to separate itself from Deep Root Analytics and the firm locked down the information to prevent further public access. Republican officials say the data was unsecured for around two weeks and that other than UpGuard no one gained access.
Judge puts hold on Democrats' suit for Trump's tax returns - The federal judge hearing House Democrats’ suit to obtain President Donald Trump’s tax returns put the case on hold today. District Court Judge Trevor McFadden, in his order, cited uncertainties about how another court may act in a different case that raises issues similar to the ones in the suit for Trump’s returns. In that second case, House Judiciary Committee Democrats are appealing a ruling that former White House counsel Don McGahn can defy a congressional subpoena for his testimony. McFadden wrote that he “will await further proceedings in McGahn” before he acts on Democrat’s subpoena enforcement claims in the tax returns case or their argument that a federal law requires the Treasury secretary to turn over the returns to House Ways and Means Chairman Richard Neal (D-Mass.). In a filing last month, attorneys for Neal told McFadden they would continue to press their case despite the ruling in the McGahn case. Trump’s lawyers said the tax returns case should be dismissed, but they’d be willing to see the case put on hold while the McGahn ruling is appealed.
Spectacularly wrong: Why Wall Street doesn't understand the corona virus - From the comfort of the sealed caverns of Wall Street the actual physical and social world is just an abstraction to be quantified and analyzed. One of Wall Street's most prominent investment research and management firms released an analysis that says the corona virus won't be all that bad for the economy. Analysts from Morningstar Inc.—which is actually headquartered in Chicago's cavernous downtown—say that this pandemic will be a "mild pandemic." I'm not sure how pandemics can be mild, but the analysts outline cases for "moderate" and "severe pandemics." One of the things that gives these analysts such a sanguine view, particularly in the United States, is the country's advanced health care system which is "likely much more prepared for the taxing of our hospital system, as we appear to have a massive lead over other developed nations in the number of intensive care unit beds per citizen." And yet, a first-hand report from a physician in those hospitals suggests that there will be very little room for severe corona virus cases in any hospital ICU. Those beds are already being used by patients and not just waiting empty. In all likelihood, hospitals will be quickly overwhelmed and forced to decide who gets critical live-saving treatment and who does not. The "who does not" number could be very large if the Italian experience is anything to go by.The analysts do admit that lack of health insurance and paid sick leave will likely lead to higher infection rates in the United States than would otherwise be the case. Naturally, people without insurance will be reluctant to seek treatment, and those without paid sick leave may come to work even when ill in order to make enough money to pay their bills.The surprisingly upbeat report is based on the idea of a return to business as usual. The assumption is that the corona virus pandemic will not shatter confidence in our institutions which are so clearly incompetent and/or inadequate to the task of fighting this pandemic. For the first two months of this year the U.S. markets virtually ignored the growing dangers of a pandemic and assumed that any economic problems would be confined to China. In fact, even as infections spread like wildfire in China, market averages touched new highs. The idea that novel infectious diseases for which there is no treatment do not recognize national boundaries just didn't occur to most investors and investment advisors. Reality, however, began to sink in by late February and led to the historic stock market collapse. Even now, a friend of mine who is retired reports that the week before last her investment advisor responded sharply when she called to dump half of her portfolio of stocks. The advisor won the argument saying that this is just a temporary slide, and that in the long term all will be well.
Fed Sets Off Panic with Plan to Eliminate Reserves at Wall Street’s Mega Banks -- By Pam Martens ~ Last evening, it became painfully clear that the Board of Governors at the Federal Reserve do not understand the inner workings of Wall Street. After prattling on for months about the need to rebuild “ample reserves” at the behemoth Wall Street banks after the Fed was forced on September 17 to become the liquidity provider of last resort to the tune of $9 trillion cumulatively thus far, the Fed flipped its thinking on a dime yesterday and sent markets into a panic. As of 8:55 a.m. this morning, S&P 500 futures are locked, limit down, suggesting a steep drop in stocks at the open of trading at 9:30 a.m.Along with a series of other measures to prop up liquidity on Wall Street, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors announced last evening that it “has reduced reserve requirement ratios to zero percent effective on March 26, the beginning of the next reserve maintenance period. This action eliminates reserve requirements for thousands of depository institutions and will help to support lending to households and businesses.” The Fed also said it is “encouraging banks to use their capital and liquidity buffers.” The Fed characterized all of its actions, which included a new round of quantitative easing where it will buy up $500 billion of U.S. Treasury securities and $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities, as helping the consumer and small businesses. One brave reporter on the Fed’s press conference last evening, which was held by telephone, asked exactly how eliminating reserves was going to help businesses and consumers. Powell made it clear that the Fed had not gotten any contractual guarantees from the banks. He said: “We’ve given broad general guidance to the banks.” As of September 30, the latest data available from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, five of the Wall Street banks held $230 trillion in notional (face amount) of derivatives, which represents 85 percent of all derivatives held by the more than 5,000 banks and savings associations in the United States. Banks that get on the wrong side of a derivatives trade have to regularly post extra collateral to their counterparty. The Fed’s bizarre action in removing reserve requirements at a time when public confidence in the banks is critical, raises concerns across Wall Street that at least some of these banks may desperately need access to those reserves to post collateral on derivative trades.
Dow plunges nearly 3,000 points as Fed intervention does little to subdue Wall Street’s distress - Fears that policymakers have not done enough to avert a protracted economic downturn deepened a sense of national crisis Monday and sent stocks to their worst single-day losses since the Black Monday crash of 1987. The sell-off accelerated, with the Dow Jones industrial average plunging nearly 3,000 points, after President Trump warned that disruption from thecoronavirus pandemic could last through August and issued new public health guidance, saying Americans should limit gatherings to no more than 10 people. He also defended his handling of the crisis, which has been marred by a slow rollout of testing, saying his administration has done “a fantastic job.”San Francisco area urged to shelter in place. The Supreme Court said it will postpone scheduled oral arguments through April, citing its stance during the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic and outbreaks of yellow fever in 1793 and 1798. On Wall Street, investors fled stocks, despite the Federal Reserve’s move Sunday night to cut interest rates to near zero and to begin purchasing $700 billion worth of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities in a bid to calm jittery markets. The Dow Jones industrial average closed down nearly 13 percent in late trading before closing at 20,188, down more than 2,997 for the day. That marked the largest one-day point decline in U.S. history, though in percentage terms Monday’s 13 percent loss was topped by the nearly 23 percent decline on Oct. 19, 1987. All three of the Dow’s 2,000-point daily losses have occurred in the past week. The broader Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index and the technology-rich Nasdaq suffered similar setbacks. Trading was halted almost as soon as it began after stocks fell 7 percent, breaching a “circuit-breaker” designed to discourage panic selling. It was the third such halt in the past six sessions. Investors welcomed the Fed’s actions, but said the central bank needed to do more and do it quickly. Clogged markets for commercial paper — a form of short-term corporate borrowing — threaten to spill over into the banking system and cause a run on money-market funds, according to analysts at Bank of America.The Fed, joined by fellow banking regulators from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, reiterated its call Sunday for banks to borrow from its “discount window.” The Fed has slashed the rate it charges banks for those short-term loans to just 0.25 percent, in hopes of spurring lending to cash-strapped businesses. Frustration is building with Washington’s failure to find a way to quickly assemble an economic rescue. “The fiscal response should already have been done,” said David Kotok, chairman of Cumberland Advisors. “And the fiscal response, in my estimation, will eventually have to be more than $1 trillion or the country is going to have a raft of bankruptcies.”
Here’s Why the Fed Hasn’t Yet Invoked Its 13(3) Emergency Powers to Stem a Stock Market Crash - Pam Martens - The U.S. stock market set new records yesterday – all of them bad. The Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered its worst point loss in history, closing down 2,997 points at 20,188.52, which effectively erases all of its gains in the last three years. On January 20, 2017, when Donald Trump was sworn in as President, the Dow closed at 19,827. It’s now grown by just 1.8 percent in total over that span of time. The Dow also had its second worst percentage loss in history yesterday, losing 12.93 percent. That loss is only exceeded by Black Monday, October 19, 1987, when the Dow lost 22.6 percent. It barely beats out October 28, 1929 when the Dow lost 12.8 percent and ushered in what would become the worst stock market crash in history. From late 1929 to 1933 the stock market would go on to lose 90 percent of its value and not reset the highs it had made in 1929 until 25 years later. Citigroup was the worst performing bank of all of the Wall Street behemoths, losing 19.30 percent in one trading day. And yet no matter what pundit you see on TV, all that one hears is that Wall Street banks have plenty of capital. These two things cannot be simultaneously true: the Fed cannot have had to be pumping hundreds of billions of dollars each week into Wall Street banks and their trading arms for the past six months (long before there was any coronavirus outbreak anywhere in the world) if these banks actually did have adequate capital.The chart above shows that the major Wall Street “universal” banks, which combine a toxic trading culture, tens of trillions of dollars of dark derivatives along with owning federally-insured banks that are backstopped by the taxpayer, are once again trading as a herd just as they did in the 2008 financial crash. Citigroup, as of yesterday’s close, has lost 48 percent of its market value since February 14. And Citigroup is not alone. JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America also hold insane levels of derivative exposure. Their likely insurance company counterparties, as outed by the Office of Financial Research, have also been bleeding massive amounts of common equity capital this year. And Deutsche Bank, Germany’s largest bank, is another counterparty that has been bleeding capital and setting all time lows. This is likely the key reason that the Federal Reserve has not used its Section 13(3) emergency lending authority and created a commercial paper bailout program and other such programs. Under the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation of 2010, the Fed can only use those emergency lending authorities if it briefs the Senate Banking Committee and House Financial Services Committee, including providing the names of the banks getting the money. The Fed is also prevented from bailing out individual banks as it did in 2008 and can provide only broad-based lending programs. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has repeatedly testified to Congress that the Wall Street banks it regulates have plenty of liquidity and capital. The Fed has been approving all of the stress tests for these banks and allowing them to spend tens of billions of dollars each year doing stock buybacks and paying increased dividends to their shareholders. Imagine the public and political backlash if it now turns out that the Fed has allowed these banks to become the same money-losing derivative casinos that they were in 2008 and they need trillions of dollars more in another bailout.
Fed Announces Program for Wall Street Banks to Pledge Plunging Stocks to Get Trillions in Loans at ¼ Percent Interest - Pam Martens - The Federal Reserve Board of Governors announced at 6 P.M. last evening that it is following the direction of Steve Mnuchin, the former foreclosure king who now serves as U.S. Treasury Secretary, and authorizing the reinstatement of a hideously operated, multi-trillion dollar bailout program for Wall Street’s trading houses known as the Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF). Veterans on Wall Street think of it as the cash-for-trash facility, where Wall Street’s toxic waste from a decade of irresponsible trading and lending, will be purged from the balance sheets of the Wall Street firms and handed over to the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve – just as it was during the last financial crisis on Wall Street. The Fed fought for years in court to keep the details of the PDCF and its sibling Wall Street bailout programs a secret from the American people. Thanks to an amendment attached to the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation of 2010 by Senator Bernie Sanders, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) was instructed to conduct an audit of the PDCF and the rest of the alphabet soup of programs the Fed set up to secretly funnel $29 trillion to the denizens of Wall Street, the foreign banks that were counterparties to their failing derivative trades, central banks, and even a hedge fund that was shorting the Wall Street banks’ own stocks. We learned from the GAO audit that the Primary Dealer Credit Facility was the largest Wall Street bailout program during the financial crisis. It issued 1,376 loans that cumulatively totaled $8.95 trillion. Just as is happening this time around, the Fed spun the story that the program would help American workers and businesses. It did no such thing. It went to bail out the trading and derivative operations of sinking ships on Wall Street as those same firms paid out millions of dollars in bonuses to their derelict executives and traders. Of the $8.95 trillion in loans issued by the PDCF, $5.7 trillion, or 64 percent, went to Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch according to the GAO audit. (The Levy Economics Institute, per chart above, found that percentage to be 67.3 percent.) Yesterday, CNBC spun the news about the program this way: “The Federal Reserve is adding another weapon in its effort to make sure households and businesses get the funding they need as the economy deals with the coronavirus crisis.” CNBC added that Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said the program would “help facilitate the availability of credit to American workers and businesses.” Only in some alternative universe from hell that exists in the likes of the brains of Lloyd Blankfein (the former CEO of Goldman Sachs who famously said he thought he was doing “God’s work”) could funneling $5.7 trillion to Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch be construed as helping American workers and businesses.
The Median US Stock Is Now Down 50% From Its Highs As World Loses $25 Trillion In A Month (27 Bloomberg graphs)Global stock and bond markets have seen $25 trillion of 'paper' wealth erased in the last month, wiping out all the gains from the Dec 2018 crash lows.... Global bonds are actually still up around $5 trillion while global stocks have lost around $5 trillion since the Dec 2018 lows, and a lot of those losses come from the US markets where the median stock is now down 50% from its highs... (because the Value Line index below is based on a geometric average the daily change is closest to the median stock price change) As Washington signs and promises more and more bailouts and helicopter money drops, USA sovereign risk is starting to get a little spooked... Systemic risk remains extremely elevated... Which makes sense when the world's largest banks are seeing their credit risk explode like it did ahead of the Lehman crisis... And despite the endless liquidity from global central banks and polititicians, financial conditions are tightening at their fastest rate ever... And the real 'fear' trade is now at its most extreme since the peak of the Lehman crisis... Policy Fail - The Dollar rallied for the 8th straight day, soaring to a new record high despite The Fed opening unlimited FX Swap Lines... This is the largest 8-day rally in the DXY Dollar Index... ever! Greater even than when Soros broke The Bank of England in Sept 1992... But The Fed will "never give in"... Since the COVID-19 Malrarkey began, Chinese stocks remain the leaders (down only 12%), while Europe is the laggard... US equity markets soared today (thanks to the biggest short-squeeze in 7 years), but failed to erase yesterday's gains... (NOTE Nasdaq just tagged unch from Tuesday and then rolled over - algo-tom-foolery)... On the week, it's still a shitshow with The Dow worst, down 13%... Today saw "Most Shorted" stocks soar 8% - the biggest short-squeeze since August 2013... Directly virus-affected sectors rebounded today... VIX fell notably today, testing below 70 ahead of tomorrow's Quad-Witch option expiry... Meanwhile, Boeing credit risk continues to soar (as questions rise about whether they should be bailed out or not)... And Ford suspended its dividend and withdrew its guidance sending its credit risk soaring... Credit markets were not buying what stocks were selling today... Treasury yields were mixed with the long-end higher and rest of the modestly lower (despite a huge range)... (10Y yields briefly dipped below 1.00% today) Another late-day purge in yields pushed 30Y to end higher on the day... Munis were massacred today - 10Y yield spiking 47bps!! (MUNI-BOND OUTFLOW ALMOST THREE TIMES PREVIOUS RECORD) EUR tumbled today to 3 year lows today in biggest loss since Jan 2001 (bigger than Jun 2016 Brexit vote loss) And Cable crashed to the weakest since 1985... Cryptos had a big day with Bitcoin Cash outperforming... Today's commodity markets were dominate by oil's biggest rally ever...however, given the carnage in crude, WTI is still down 20% on the week... Today was oil's biggest daily gain... ever. Bouncing off a $20 handle and helped by talk of Trump intervention, WTI was up around 25%!! However, in context, it doesn't look like much (apart from the insane $2 spike at settlement for a 35% surge intraday)... Oil and the dollar both rallied together late on... Gold was modestly lower on the day but silver actually managed gains, bouncing off $12 again.. And on a somewhat related note, is this the other reason why gold has been sold? Volatile day in PMs with Palladium best and Platinum worst... Finally, as Bloomberg notes, anyone referring to the past month’s plunge in U.S. stocks as a crash has history on their side. The S&P 500 Index’s volatility for the 10 trading days ended Wednesday was 122%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Only two periods have produced higher readings: the aftermath of the 1929 Black Tuesday crash and the 1987 Black Monday crash. The volatility gauge climbed more than 17-fold from Feb. 19, when the S&P 500’s latest bull market ended, through Wednesday. The FRA-OIS spread spiked once again today signaling major tensions in the liquidity markets remain... And global basis swaps spiked again (led by JPY) as the dollar shortage worsened today... In other words - whatever The Fed is doing - "It's Not Working!"
Four senators sold stocks before coronavirus threat crashed market - Four senators sold stocks shortly after a January briefing in the Senate on the novel coronavirus outbreak, unloading shares that plummeted in value a month later as the stock market crashed in the face of a global pandemic. According to financial disclosure forms, Sens. Kelly Loeffler (R-Ga.), James Inhofe (R-Okla.), Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) and Richard Burr (R-N.C.) each sold hundreds of thousands of dollars in stocks within days of the Senate holding a classified briefing on Jan. 24 with Trump administration officials on the threat of the coronavirus outbreak. The sales raise questions about whether the senators violated the STOCK Act, a law that bans members of Congress from making financial trades based on nonpublic information. Loeffler and her husband, who is the chairman of the New York Stock Exchange, sold at least $355,000 in stocks from Jan. 24-31, according to Senate records, after the coronavirus briefing hosted by the Senate Health and Foreign Relations committees. The senator and her husband also sold $890,000 in stocks from Feb. 5-14, just days after the first confirmed coronavirus cases emerged in the U.S. but nearly two weeks before community spread of the disease was confirmed within the country. The sales, worth at least $1.2 million together, saved Loeffler and her husband from steep losses they would have incurred after the stock market’s crash began Feb. 24. Loeffler said in a pair tweets Friday that she doesn’t control her and her husband’s financial assets and was informed of the sales on Feb. 16. Loeffler was among several Republican senators who tamped down concerns about the administration’s response to the coronavirus outbreak while selling stocks that soon plunged within weeks of the disease spreading within the U.S. Loeffler is facing a tough election race this year, which includes a challenge from Rep. Doug Collins (R-Ga.). Inhofe sold at least $180,000 in stocks on Jan. 27, days after the Senate’s coronavirus briefing, according to Senate records. Inhofe also sold at least $50,000 in stock in an asset management company on Feb. 20, four days before the stock market crashed.
Wall Street’s Crisis Began Four Months Before the First Reported Death from Coronavirus in China; Here’s the Proof - Pam Martens - U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and Wall Street pundits are all over cable news, repeating the mantra that “this is nothing like the last financial crisis,” while seeking to lay the blame for all of the newly-announced bailout measures for Wall Street at the feet of the coronavirus. But in terms of Wall Streetprivatizing profits and socializing losses, this is exactly like the last financial crisis. Wall Street’s crisis has a specific launch date: September 17, 2019. That’s when the Fed, for the first time since the last financial crisis, began dumping hundreds of billions of dollars a week into Wall Street’s trading houses. That program, called “repo loans,” now tallies up to more than $9 trillion in cumulative loans made to Wall Street at super-cheap borrowing rates. The first article we wrote on that Fed program was dated September 18, 2019 and titled: The Fed Intervened in Overnight Lending for First Time Since the Crash. Why It Matters to You.September 17 was almost four months before the first death from coronavirus was reported in China on January 11, 2020 and five months before the first death was reported on February 28, 2020 in the U.S. (See the New York Times coronavirus timetable here.) One half hour before midnight yesterday, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors quietly rolled out one more in a string of bailout measures it has been announcing since Sunday night to deal with Wall Street’s decade long gorging on speculative debt,derivatives, stock buybacks, obscene pay, and its serial crime spree. Each one of these Fed programs is identical, or almost identical, to the programs the Fed operated during the 2007-2010 financial crisis. If this were truly “nothing like” the last financial crisis, why would the Fed be using the identical measures to try to stem the crisis? The truth is that Wall Street is not going to let a national emergency go to waste. It’s going to maximize bailing itself out while the public’s attention is focused on a national crisis. (See The Untold Story of 9/11: Bailing Out Alan Greenspan’s Legacy.) The latest Wall Street bailout program rolled out by the Fed last night is called the Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility and will purchase “unsecured and secured commercial paper” from money market funds, ostensibly to keep their market value from dropping inside the money market fund and the fund’s value from “breaking a buck,” meaning investors would get back less principal than they put in. It is rare for a money market fund in the U.S. to “break a buck,” meaning to trade below $1.00 per share. Several large funds broke a buck during the last financial crisis of 2007-2010 and set off a run on money market funds. The Fed created a very similar facility to the current one during that period – the Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility (AMLF) which ran from September 19, 2008 through February 1, 2010. Just as then, the Fed is allowing “branches and agencies of foreign banks” to borrow under the program as well as Wall Street banks and their trading units. This marks the fourth reincarnation of facilities created during the Wall Street crisis of 2007-2010 by the Federal Reserve. The first was the repo loan program described above. On Tuesday, the Fed said it was creating the Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF) and the Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF). Both facilities operated during the last financial crisis. This time around, the Fed said that both programs would “support the flow of credit to households and businesses.” Unfortunately, there is scant evidence that the CPFF helped U.S. households and businesses..
NYSE Kicks Out Humans, Moving Temporarily To Fully Electronic Trading -- Just in case the NYSE trading floor, which in the past decade became better known for being a TV studio for various financial networks wasn't enough of a ghost town, starting Monday not a single trader, or TV anchor, will be present at the historic downtown NYC venue after at least one person tested positive for covid.In a notification posted late on Wednesday, the NYSE said it would initiate its business continuity plan and move, on a temporary basis, to fully electronic trading on Monday, March 23. The decision to temporarily close the trading floors represents a "precautionary step to protect the health and well-being of employees and the floor community in response to COVID-19."“NYSE’s trading floors provide unique value to issuers and investors, but our markets are fully capable of operating in an all-electronic fashion to serve all participants, and we will proceed in that manner until we can re-open our trading floors to our members,” said Stacey Cunningham, President of the New York Stock Exchange.“While we are taking the precautionary step of closing the trading floors, we continue to firmly believe the markets should remain open and accessible to investors. All NYSE markets will continue to operate under normal trading hours despite the closure of the trading floors.”Trading and regulatory oversight of all NYSE-listed securities will continue without interruption. All-electronic trading will begin with Monday’s market open. The facilities to be closed comprise the NYSE equities trading floor in New York, NYSE American Options trading floor in New York, and NYSE Arca Options trading floor in San Francisco.
Big Shale Borrowers on Fast Track to Junk - -- The latest crash in oil prices is threatening to push $140 billion of investment-grade energy debt over the edge into junk. Despite the modest recovery after 2016, oil prices have been capped by plentiful global supplies, and at the same time the U.S. shale sector has exhausted the patience of many equity investors with consistently poor returns. Now, the industry has been blindsided by the double whammy of a supply shock from the coronavirus and an oil price war, and President Donald Trump’s efforts to prop up prices is unlikely to offset more expected supply from major producers. That’s left exploration and production companies in a weaker position coming into the latest crisis, with WTI crude hovering near $30 a barrel. Those including Occidental Petroleum Corp., as well as Apache Corp. and Marathon Oil Corp. are cutting spending wherever possible, but bond traders seem to have already made up their minds -- some of these companies’ debt, and that of others, is trading around 70 cents on the dollar, a far cry from near par where most traded just a few weeks ago. “When you have these investment-grade companies trading in the 60s, 70s, and 80s, that tells you that the market certainly doesn’t look at them as investment grade,” said James Spicer, a high-yield analyst at TD Securities focused on energy. “It looks at them as distressed names that have real default risk.” It may be too late for oil producers to refinance their way out of this one. Capital markets have been mostly shut for weeks as corporate debt traders price in a greater chance of recession, only opening up in small windows for the highest-quality borrowers in safe-haven sectors like utilities. If companies can’t service their debt, the possibility of downgrades pales in comparison to the threat of default.
Things Have Changed - Kunstler - At least in wartime, the bars stay open. That’s how you know this is a different thing altogether from whatever else you’ve seen in your lifetime. Even those of us who signed up for this trip — that is, who expected a long emergency — may be a little bit in cosmic awe at just how much shit is flying into the ol’ fan. I know I am. The gods must have glugged down a mighty draft of Dulcolax. The mega financial bubble-of-bubbles is deflating with frightful velocity precisely because of the efforts since 2008 to artificially inflate it. The Federal Reserve gave it one final blast Sunday night — while everybody else was counting their rolls of toilet paper — and the effect was like blowing hot air into a shredded Zeppelin. Stock futures are “limit down” as I write, before the Wall Street open. Nobody really knows how deep and how harsh this gets (and perhaps the ones who have a clue ain’t sayin’). But the situation presents two salient questions: how much disorder is entailed in this ordeal? And what does the world look like when the convulsion phase of this thing is over? Americans have never been through anything remotely like this. The disorders of the Civil War were sharp and horrendous military operations conducted mostly in cornfields, pastures, and woods (yes, and some small cities like Richmond, pop. 38,000, and Atlanta, pop. 10,000). When the smoke cleared, battered Dixieland emerged to numb civil order. Up in Yankeedom, the New York draft riots ran for a week around the small patch of Manhattan island, but everybody else went along with Mr. Lincoln’s program. After all that, America got on quickly with the lively business of the 19th century: railroads, mines, factories, and all that. The world wars took place in foreign lands, and the home-front scene of the 1940s now looks nostalgically idyllic. The stresses mounting on the national scene today reflect the extreme fragilities of the way-of-life we constructed since then, and an awful lot of bad choices we made in the process, like suburbanizing the nation and making everybody a hostage to happy motoring. I won’t belabor that point, except to ask how are those vast regions of the country going to manage daily life as the supply chains wobble? I’d say a shortage of toilet paper may only be the beginning of their problems. The cities — at least, the few that didn’t already implode from the inside out — made assumptions about how big and tall they could grow which don’t jibe with the new circumstances chugging ferociously down the line. Just think what a lockdown of the global economy will do to all those residential skyscraper projects lately hoisted up in New York, San Francisco and Boston? I’ll tell you: They are assets instantly converted into liabilities. And how will these cities even begin to pay for maintaining their complex infrastructures and services when the money for all that no longer exists and there’s no way to pretend that it will ever come back? Answer: They won’t be able to keep borrowing and they won’t manage. These cities will depopulate and there will be battles over who gets to live in the parts that still may have some value, like riverfronts.
Liquidity Panic Reaches Staples- Kraft Heinz To Fully Draw Down $4 Billion Revolver - Last week investors were shocked when a barrage of major US corporations - including Boeing, Hilton, Wynn and a handful of PE portfolio companies - announced their decision to fully draw down on their existing credit lines. That said, for all the ominous banking crisis undertones - many still remember that one of the early symptoms of the global financial crisis was countless companies whose revolvers were pulled by a panicking banking sector - there was a common theme linking all these companies: they were all in sectors (airlines, casinos, lodging, energy) that were directly impacted by either the coronavirus pandemic or the recent oil price war. Today, that changed when food giant Kraft Heinz - which should be benefiting generously from the recent food hoarding panic - was set to also draw down on its credit facility of as much as $4 billion, even though it faced none of the same coronavirus/oil headwinds as so many other companies that jumped the gun to boost their liquidity while they still could."We maintain our $4.0 billion senior credit facility, and subject to certain conditions, we may increase the amount of revolving commitments and/or add additional tranches of term loans in a combined aggregate amount of up to$1.0 billion," the company said. Speaking to Bloomberg, which first reported the drawdown of the Buffett-owned company, a Kraft Heinz spokesman said that "the demand for our brands, our cash flow and our balance sheet remain strong," which is a rather bizarre explanation why it would need billions more in liquidity. "As a matter of practice, we typically maintain a conservative liquidity posture, which is even that much more important as we focus on making sure all our products remain available to the public during these challenging times."
A Revolving Panic- Here Are The Companies That Have Fully Drawn Down Credit Lines This Week - In the aftermath of the great Commercial Paper panic of 2020, which erupted over the past two weeks when initially the Fed failed to launch a Commercial Paper backstop facility, something it did with a two day delay on Tuesday, countless blue chip (and less than clue chip) companies found themselves with gaping liquidity shortfalls, and to bridge their funding needs, they rushed to draw on their existing credit facilities (also a hedge in case the banking system imposes a lending moratorium similar to what happened in the 2008 crash). As a result, corporate borrowers worldwide, including Boeing, Hilton, Wynn, Kraft Heinz and dozens more, drew about $60 billion from revolving credit facilities this week in a frantic dash for cash as liquidity tightens. On Wednesday alone, another seven more companies - CEC Entertainment, Metropolitan Transportation Authority, Diamondrock Hospitality, Tailored Brands, J Jill, Boyd Gaming, and National Vision - announced intentions to draw down credit lines. As of Friday morning, the week recorded $58BN of drawdowns, more than a five-fold jump from the $11BN for the whole of the previous week, according to Bloomberg data. The total drawdown would bring the utilization ratio above 24%, double from the 12% as of 4Q19 for US Investment Grade companies. Thursday alone saw $21BN of facilities drawn, just short of the $21.3BN recorded on Tuesday, with Ford ($15.4BN), Kohl's ($1BN), TJX ($1BN) and Ross Stores leading the revolving charge. What is concerning is that despite the Fed's CP backstop, companies continue to draw down on revolvers, whether because the rate on their CP is too high, or they simply do not trust banks. The BofA table below summarizes all the companies that have drawn down on their revolver in response to the the Global Corona/Crude Crisis...
Distressed Debt In The US Doubles In 2 Weeks To $500BN As BofA Expects Surge In Defaults - Last week, in the aftermath of the historic oil price collapse, we warned that the long-awaited "fallen angel" day has arrived, as $140 billion in oil producer (and up to $360 if one includes the mid-stream companies) investment grade debt was on the verge of being downgraded to junk and throwing the entire high yield market in turmoil.Fast forward to today when Bloomberg calculates that since we published out article, the amount of distressed debt - a term that describes borrowings likely to default - in the U.S. alone has doubled to a half-trillion dollars as the collapse of oil prices and the fallout from the coronavirus shutters entire industries.While rating agencies have been slow to respond to the total collapse in cash flow generation across most US industries as long as the US economy remains paralyzed due to the spreading lock downs across the nation, markets have been far faster, and the result has been a plunge in the price of countless bonds. As a result, corporate bonds - which according to BofA are no longer properly functioning - that yield at least 10% points above Treasuries, as well as loans that trade for less than 80 cents on the dollar, have swelled to $533 billion. This is more than double from the March 6 total of only $214 billion. And, according to UBS, if one adds across all company debt globally, including loans to small- and mid-sized companies that rarely if ever trade, the distressed pile could top $1 trillion. And yes, that number is only going to surge. An analysis via Trace shows that the amount of distressed bonds has surged to the highest level since the financial crisis, surpassing the oil/manufacturing recession of 2016.
Fed to create emergency backstop for commercial debt market — The Federal Reserve said it will use emergency authority to provide a liquidity backstop for commercial debt issuers as the coronavirus scare has raised concerns about the flow of credit. The central bank said Tuesday that it was establishing the Commercial Paper Funding Facility to "support the flow of credit to households and businesses." The facility resembles a backstop the Fed created for the commercial paper market in the 2008 financial crisis. “By ensuring the smooth functioning of this market, particularly in times of strain, the Federal Reserve is providing credit that will support families, businesses, and jobs across the economy,” the Fed said in a press release. The CPFF will act as a liquidity backstop to U.S. issuers of commercial paper through a special-purpose vehicle that will in turn purchase unsecured and asset-backed commercial paper from eligible companies, the Fed said. The Fed's latest action came amid calls from several market observers for the central bank to do more to prop up markets in the face of the virus scare. The Treasury Department is providing $10 billion of credit protection to the Fed from the department’s Exchange Stabilization Fund. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York also has committed lending to the facility on a recourse basis. “By eliminating much of the risk that eligible issuers will not be able to repay investors by rolling over their maturing commercial paper obligations, this facility should encourage investors to once again engage in term lending in the commercial paper market,” the Fed said. “An improved commercial paper market will enhance the ability of businesses to maintain employment and investment as the nation deals with the coronavirus outbreak.” The special-purpose vehicle will stop purchasing commercial paper March 17, 2021, unless the Fed decides to extend the facility. The Fed's latest action came amid calls from several market observers for the central bank to do more to prop up markets in the face of the virus scare. Some commentators raised the concerns that recent interest rate cuts and other actions from the central bank will not directly reach those who most need help from economic stabilization efforts. The Fed said the commercial paper facility will be created under authority granted by Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act.
Fed announces launch of second facility to support credit markets - — The Federal Reserve announced it is establishing a credit facility for primary dealers under its emergency powers, on the same day it exercised its authority to restart a liquidity backstop for commercial debt issuers. The Primary Dealer Credit Facility “will allow primary dealers to support smooth market functioning and facilitate the availability of credit to businesses and households," the Fed said in a press release release. The new facility will be available March 20, the Fed said.The move is among a flurry of recent Fed actions intended to limit the economic impact of the coronavirus. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said in a statement that he had sent Fed Chairman Jerome Powell a letter Tuesday approving the creation of the PDCF. “The global coronavirus outbreak has contributed to significant financial market volatility,” said Mnuchin. “The establishment of a PDCF will help address illiquidity, mitigate disruptions in funding markets, support smooth market functioning and help facilitate the availability of credit to American workers and businesses.”The PDCF will only be accessible to primary dealers of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and will provide loans for terms of up to 90 days. Loans made under the PDCF will be charged an interest rate equal to the primary credit rate at the New York Fed. Borrowers will be able to pledge investment grade corporate debt securities, commercial paper, municipal securities, mortgage-backed securities and asset-backed securities. Also eligible is any collateral that can otherwise be pledged in open market operations.The PDCF will be in place for six months, but could be extended, Mnuchin said in a stataement. Earlier Tuesday, the Fed said it would establish the Commercial Paper Funding Facility to "support the flow of credit to households and businesses." The CPFF will act as a liquidity backstop to U.S. issuers of commercial paper through a special-purpose vehicle that will purchase unsecured and asset-backed commercial paper from eligible companies, the Fed said. The facility was last activated during the financial crisis.
Agencies encourage banks to use their capital to boost lending - — The federal banking agencies took steps to encourage financial institutions to dip into capital and liquidity coffers as households and businesses cope with the economic challenges of the coronavirus.The regulators issued a joint statement Tuesday that they support banks “that choose to use their capital and liquidity buffers to lend and undertake other supportive actions in a safe and sound manner.” The statement was similar to one issued solely by the Federal Reserve Board over the weekend.The extra capital and liquidity cushions that banks built following the 2008 financial crisis “were designed to provide banking organizations with the means to support the economy in adverse situations and allow banking organization to continue to serve households and businesses,” according to the joint statement by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Fed and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. The agencies also issued an interim rule that makes a technical change to banks’ capital requirements. The rule, which revises the definition of “eligible retained income” aims to soften the impact of regulatory restrictions on capital distributions in order to enable banks to more easily reduce their capital levels.“The interim final rule … addresses the impact of recent dislocations in the U.S. economy as a result of COVID-19,” the agencies said in the new regulation. “By modifying the definition of eligible retained income and therefore allowing banking organizations to more freely use their capital buffers, this rule should help to promote lending activity and other financial intermediation activities by depository institutions, bank holding companies, and savings and loan holding companies and avoid compounding negative impacts on the financial markets.”In their joint statement, the agencies’ noted that the largest banks hold $1.3 trillion in common equity and $2.9 trillion in high-quality liquid assets, which is well in excess of their regulatory minimums.The new actions Tuesday were accompanied by the Fed’s announcement that it was reviving a financial crisis-era facility that provides a backstop to the commercial paper market. On Sunday, the Fed separately took steps effectively slashing the federal funds rate to zero, as well as urging financial institutions to use their capital buffers to support lending.
Regulators issue more guidance on banks' pandemic response -Federal banking regulators took a series of steps Thursday to further guide banks in supporting customers, small businesses and communities in the midst of the coronavirus outbreak.The Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency expanded activities eligible for Community Reinvestment Act credit to include actions that support communities affected by the pandemic. The agencies also clarified earlier guidance encouraging banks to use their capital and liquidity buffers for lending efforts. The joint statement on CRA built on guidance last week, when the FDIC and OCC advised banks that examiners would not penalize institutions for allowing loan flexibility or taking other measures to help their customers. Now, the host of actions banks are encouraged to take in order to help customers — including waived fees, loan deferment and “alternative servicing” in light of bank branch closures — will be eligible for CRA credit. That guidance is consistent with past action in response to natural disasters and other crises, such as the destruction in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria. The agencies’ announcement on Thursday said they would consider CRA credit for additional community development activities as well, including loans, investments and services that support digital access, health care, small-business expenses and even food for low-to-moderate income communities. According to the regulators, the expansion of CRA-eligible activities will be in effect through the six-month period after the U.S. lifts the national emergency declaration. The actions announced Thursday were among a flurry of moves from the regulatory agencies to help banks and their customers cope with the financial fallout from the pandemic. The FDIC also separately issued two "frequently asked questions" documents — one for banks and another for consumers — to "address a variety of issues that may arise as financial institutions work with customers and communities affected by COVID-19."
Sherrod Brown calls on regulators to suspend non-coronavirus rulemaking - Sen. Sherrod Brown has requested that financial regulators suspend all rulemaking unrelated to the coronavirus pandemic. Earlier this week Brown wrote letters to a number of regulators, calling for comment periods closing after March 1 to be suspended or extended for at least 45 days. The Ohio Democrat reached out to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the National Credit Union Administration, among others. “The COVID-19 virus threatens both the health of the public and the economy,” Brown wrote. “It presents immediate challenges to real households and every entity in the housing market, from frontline homelessness providers to homeowners. In light of this crisis, we urge you to implement an immediate moratorium on rulemakings not related to the virus response or other imminent health and safety concerns.” Brown, who is the ranking member on the Senate Banking Committee, additionally called for regulators to put their resources toward responding to the health crisis and providing guidance. The verbiage in Brown's letters varied slightly depending on which agency it was directed at, though there were no substantial differences. The United States had over 14,000 COVID-19 cases and 205 deaths as of Friday mid-morning, according to a database from Johns Hopkins University. Across the country, officials have closed schools, ordered non-essential businesses to shutter and requested that people stay home as much as possible to try and stem the spread of the disease. Given these difficult circumstances, Brown was concerned that the public wouldn’t be able to meaningfully engage with the agencies to provide thoughtful suggestions or comments on proposed rules.
Virus focus further dashes banks’ hopes of pot banking, AML reform - Despite partisan divisions in Congress, banks were hopeful that lawmakers could come together on a select number of industry-backed bills that had bipartisan support.But with Congress now shifting gears to efforts to stabilize the financial markets, the coronavirus outbreak has further narrowed the odds for progress on bills to help banks service marijuana businesses and require businesses to disclose their beneficial owners.“It’s going to obliterate the legislative calendar,” said Brian Gardner, an analyst at KBW. Dwight Fettig, a former Democratic staff director for the Senate Banking Committee, agreed that preexisting banking policy issues such as cannabis banking and beneficial ownership are not currently on the radar for members of the Senate and House banking committees.“I think it’s fair to say that the committee staff … are going to be extremely busy and have been extremely busy working on their pieces of the coronavirus legislative efforts,” said Fettig, a partner at Porterfield, Fettig & Sears. “That’s talking about forbearance for mortgages, student loans, emergency rental assistance and transit assistance.”Before the coronavirus pandemic hit the U.S., bank lobbyists were urging the Senate to take up two key bills that had passed the House in 2019. One would bar regulators from penalizing banks that opened accounts for cannabis businesses in states where the substance is legal. Bankers also saw potential for Congress to reform decades-old anti-money-laundering laws and pass a bill that would require businesses to report their true owners to the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network. That bill would take the burden off of banks to report beneficial ownership information for their customers.
FDIC warns of scams being carried out in its name - The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. has warned that fraudsters are taking advantage of the atmosphere of fear and confusion surrounding the coronavirus pandemic to perpetrate scams in the agency's name. These cons are being conducted through emails, phone calls, letters, text messages, faxes, and social media, the FDIC said Wednesday. Typically, the perpetrator claims to be a specific FDIC employee and demands bank account numbers, Social Security numbers, dates of birth, and other details that can be used to commit fraud or sell a person's identity. Sometimes they ask for payment. The FDIC urged people to not be fooled. “The FDIC does not send unsolicited correspondence asking for money or sensitive personal information,” the agency said. “The agency will never contact people asking for personal details, such as bank account information, credit and debit card numbers, Social Security numbers, or passwords.” The agency also said false information is being spread about the safety of consumers’ deposits and their ability to access cash. “Since 1933, no depositor has ever lost a penny of FDIC-insured funds,” the release stated. “Today, the FDIC insures up to $250,000 per depositor per FDIC-insured bank. An FDIC-insured account is the safest place for consumers to keep their money. Some banks may have adjusted hours or services in compliance with Centers for Disease Control guidance on social distancing. Customers’ deposits remain safe in these banks, as does customer access to their funds.”
McWilliams urges FASB to halt CECL implementation - Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Jelena McWilliams has joined a growing chorus of voices seeking a delay of a controversial accounting rule for anticipated loan losses.McWilliams on Thursday called on the Financial Accounting Standards Board to let banks that are subject to the Current Expected Credit Losses standard to postpone implementation due to challenges created by the coronavirus outbreak. She also asked FASB to impose a moratorium on the effective date for banks and credit unions that are otherwise required to convert to the standard in January 2023. “In view of the unprecedented challenges, FDIC is concerned that the scheduled introduction of recently enacted accounting standards may strain the ability of financial institutions to serve their depositors and prudently meet the credit needs of their communities,” McWilliams wrote in a letter to Shayne Kuhaneck, the FASB’s acting technical director.Lawmakers and financial industry trade groups have ramped up opposition to CECL since the onset of the pandemic. McWilliams is the first regulator to express support for halting implementation. A FASB spokeswoman said Thursday afternoon that it was reviewing McWilliams letter. On Monday, the Credit Union National Association called for pushing back CECL’s effective date for credit unions by a year, until January 2024. The American Bankers Association announced its support Wednesday for a bill introduced by a group of Republican lawmakers that would push conversion for community banks back to the same period.
Regulator predicts delay in GSE capital rule due to pandemic— The Federal Housing Finance Agency became the first financial regulator Wednesday to announce a rulemaking delay resulting from the coronavirus outbreak. FHFA Director Mark Calabria said the agency will push back the timeline for overhauling Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's capital framework. The FHFA had committed to revising a previous plan developed under the Obama administration and issue a new proposal to establish risk-based capital requirements for the government-sponsored enterprises once they exit conservatorship. But on the same day his agency had already announced a foreclosure halt because of the virus, Calabria said the public health crisis will complicate the notice and comment process for advancing the capital proposal. He noted that FHFA usually meets with external parties to discuss a proposal, but given the crisis, the “ability to hear from the public is compromised." “We are delaying the opening of existing comment period until we have some certainty on what the current overall situation is,” said Calabria, speaking Wednesday on a conference call with members of the Exchequer Club. “We’re going to be cognizant of the fact that it may be very difficult for people to weigh in.”
Will more regulators call for delay of CECL? -The novel coronavirus has the potential to stop a controversial accounting standard before it really kicks in.Bankers and lawmakers have been pressuring the Financial Accounting Standards Board for years to delay implementation of its Current Expected Credit Losses standard, or CECL, which would require banks and credit unions to project lifetime credit losses the day they originate a loan. With the pandemic weaking havoc on lenders, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Jelena McWilliams entered the debate on Thursday, releasing a letter calling on FASB to postpone CECL for large publicly traded institutions that converted to the standard on Jan. 1. McWilliams pressed for a moratorium for smaller banks and credit unions set to convert January 2023. The letter also urged FASB to exclude any coronavirus-related loan modifications from being classified as troubled debt restructurings.
Consumers seek early access to wages to soften coronavirus hit - As the coronavirus pandemic wreaks economic havoc in the U.S. — one estimate says 3 million jobs will be gone by summer — it’s pushing consumers to take advantage of the early wage access programs offered by fintechs like PayActiv, DailyPay and Branch. Some of these providers are making the service free.To be sure, the practice of letting people borrow from their own next paycheck is controversial. Some critics say the fees charged are usurious, no better than a payday loan. Others argue that even when the fee is low or waived completely, it is still a bad idea for people living on the financial edge to borrow from future earnings.“Early wage access programs are no panacea for the current crisis, and in fact the crisis illustrates the limits of those programs,” said Lauren Saunders, associate director of the National Consumer Law Center. “This crisis will not be over in one paycheck, yet taking money from next week's paycheck just creates another hole to fill and less ability to meet future challenges that will only get worse."But desperate times arguably call for desperate measures.The economic toll of the coronavirus is bound to be tougher on that 74% of workers who, according to the American Payroll Association, live paycheck to paycheck. According to the Federal Reserve, 40% of American adults will not be able to cover a $400 emergency with cash, savings or a credit card charge that they could quickly pay off. They have no reserve to draw from when they are furloughed.As reports of companies laying off and furloughing employees due to the coronavirus pandemic roll in, lower-income households are being hit hardest. According to an NPR/Marist poll conducted last week, 18% of households have already have had one person laid off or received a cutback in hours due to the outbreak. Among households with less than $50,000 in income, a quarter have lost jobs or seen hours cut; in households earning more than $50,000 the rate is 14%. Meanwhile, the regular rent, mortgage and utility bills roll in and families need to buy extra supplies for indefinite periods of working and schooling from home. All of this is driving people to early wage access companies, to fill those pressing needs that are hopefully short-term.
Long-term crisis could put GSEs on unsteady ground, FHFA chief says - Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Mark Calabria said Thursday that if the economic fallout from the coronavirus lasts longer than a few months, the agency might have to seek help from Congress or the Federal Reserve to support the government-sponsored enterprises. Although Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are currently equipped to handle an uptick in delinquencies, the mortgage giants are less prepared to do so over the long term, Calabria said. “If this is a short-term event — say six to eight weeks — we believe that Fannie and Freddie and the servicers are equipped financially to be able to get through this time,” he said in an interview on CNBC. “If this goes beyond that, then we may be having to look for public assistance from Congress [or] from the Fed.” FHFA on Wednesday directed Fannie and Freddie to suspend all foreclosures and evictions for at least 60 days for homeowners with mortgages backed by the GSEs. But Calabria added Thursday that the agency will “certainly roll out something larger if it looks like this crisis is going to go beyond that.” Although Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are currently equipped to handle an uptick in delinquencies, the mortgage giants are less prepared to do so over the long term, Calabria said. FHFA is also urging any borrowers affected by the coronavirus to contact that mortgage servicer about loan forbearance. As long as borrowers in forbearance plans meet the terms of those plans, no negative information will be reported to the credit bureaus, Calabria said.
The Fed just cut rates to 0% — here’s what that means for mortgage rates - The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate to 0% on Sunday — but don’t necessarily expect lower mortgage rates as a result. The Fed announced it would cut interest rates a full percentage point Sunday night, in addition to a $700 billion quantitative easing program. The central bank had already made the rare move to lower the federal funds rate by a half-point two weeks ago to a range of 1% to 1.25% in between its regularly scheduled meetings. In both cases, the Fed noted that the move was in response to the risks the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak poses to the economy. When the Fed cut interest rates two weeks ago, mortgage experts noted that the central bank was “catching up” to where markets had headed. “Mortgages respond to market forces and not to the Fed,” Holden Lewis, mortgage and real estate expert at NerdWallet, told MarketWatch earlier this month. “The Fed is actually following and not leading when it comes to mortgage rates.” Mortgage rates have plummeted since the beginning of the year to the lowest average in 50 years as a result of market movements in response to the coronavirus. While the Federal Reserve adjusts short-term interest rates, mortgage rates fluctuate based on long-term bond rates. In particular, mortgage rates in the U.S. roughly track the direction of the yield on the 10-year Treasury note. . The 10-year Treasury had fallen to all-time lows in recent weeks as investors fled to the safety of bond markets amid the downturn in equity markets. Continued downward movement in the 10-year Treasury would normally signal downward movement in mortgage rates. Where they stand now, Treasury yields suggest that mortgage rates still have some room to move lower, said Rick Sharga, a mortgage industry veteran and president and CEO of CJ Patrick Company, a financial-services consulting firm. “I wouldn’t be surprised to see 30-year loans with 3.0% rates before things settle back down,” Sharga said.
Fed keeps trying to calm markets; Mortgage payment pause considered -“Taking a page from its 2008 financial crisis playbook,” the Federal Reserve said it would start buying commercial paper, “a key funding source used by companies to cover payroll and day-to-day operations,” the New York Times reports. The Fed also said “it would roll out a new Primary Dealers Credit Facility, which will allow banks that are key conduits between the Fed, Treasury Department and the broader financial system to get the short-term loans they need to buy and hold securities including corporate bonds.” Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, New York Times, Washington Post, American Banker here and here Despite the two moves, “the question still looming over the Fed is just how far is the central bank willing to go to keep credit flowing to consumers and businesses,” American Banker says. In Europe, top bankers “are trying to calm fears about an incipient financial crisis after huge drops in their securities over the past two weeks, reflecting growing investor concern about the economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic,” the Financial Times reports. Both Ana Botín, executive chairman of Spain’s Santander, and a top Deutsche Bank executive, said they expected a “v-shaped” recovery. Botín said her bank is “well-positioned to withstand even a severe stress scenario.” But there’s not as much optimism in Italy, where “an epic misfortune is playing out,” the New York Times says. “Fears are intensifying that the economic damage could trigger a far more familiar danger — a banking crisis. If the downturn persists, many Italian companies could find themselves short of the profits needed to repay their loans. That could weaken bank balance sheets to the point of crisis.” In the U.K., the Financial Conduct Authority “has told banks and investment managers to take a flexible approach to loan repayments, account fees and savings withdrawal penalties, to help ‘meet the challenges coronavirus could pose to customers and staff,’” the FT notes. “Measures include using the flexibility within existing rules to give customers easier access to their cash, such as waiving fees for individual savings accounts and allowing them to cash in fixed-term deposits early. Other recommendations are that lenders support borrowers who are in difficulty and “show greater flexibility to customers in persistent credit card debt.’” The Housing Policy Council, a group of banks and other mortgage industry participants that includes Citigroup, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase and Quicken Loans, “is working on a plan to offer a temporary pause in payments on home loans,” the paper says. “Details were still being decided, but the plan would allow borrowers to stop paying for as long as the public health and economic disruptions lasted,” according to Ed DeMarco, the CEO of the group, who also said the “group wanted it in place by April 1.”
Trump administration to halt foreclosures as pandemic worsens— Responding to concerns about the impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the housing sector, the administration announced steps Wednesday to halt foreclosures on government-backed mortgages. In a press conference, President Trump said he had directed the Department of Housing and Urban Development to suspend all evictions and foreclosures on HUD-backed properties until the end of April. Moments later, the Federal Housing Finance Agency said it was directing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to suspend all foreclosures and evictions for at least 60 days for homeowners with mortgages backed by the government-sponsored enterprises. News of the temporary freezes came after the administration had faced increasing pressure from members of Congress and advocates to prevent consumers from losing their homes as the economic fallout from the spread of COVID-19 worsens. “We’re working very closely with [HUD Secretary] Dr. Ben Carson and everybody from HUD,” Trump said. FHFA Director Mark Calabria said the foreclosure suspension "allows homeowners with an Enterprise-backed mortgage to stay in their homes during this national emergency." “As a reminder, borrowers affected by the coronavirus who are having difficulty paying their mortgage, should reach out to their mortgage servicers as soon as possible,” Calabria said in a statement. FHFA had previously issued guidance urging borrowers affected by the coronavirus to reach out to their servicers about forbearance options. The agency will continue to monitor the situation going forward and “update policies as needed,” FHFA said. Just this week, over 100 Democrats in the House urged the Trump administration to establish a moratorium on foreclosures and evictions from properties owned or insured by government agencies. Meanwhile, two Senate Democrats have introduced a bill providing a four-month pause in consumers getting penalized on their credit reports for missed payments. In their letter Tuesday to various agencies, 106 House Democrats called for the foreclosure and eviction freeze on properties backed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, HUD, the Department of Veterans Affairs, and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Housing Service. They did not specify a duration for the moratorium. They noted that policymakers instituted similar freezes in previous crises, including Hurricane Maria in 2017.
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 5.77 million in February - From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Jump 6.5% in FebruaryExisting-home sales climbed substantially in February after a slight decline in January, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Of the four major regions, only the Northeast reported a drop in sales, while other areas saw increases, including sizable sales gains in the West.Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 6.5% from January to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.77 million in February. Additionally, for the eighth straight month, overall sales greatly increased year-over-year, up 7.2% from a year ago (5.38 million in February 2019)..... Total housing inventory at the end of February totaled 1.47 million units, up 5.0% from January, but down 9.8% from one year ago (1.63 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.1-month supply at the current sales pace, equal to the supply recorded in January and down from the 3.6-month figure recorded in February 2019.This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993. Sales in February (5.77 million SAAR) were up 6.5% from last month, and were 7.2% above the February 2019 sales rate. The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes. According to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.47 million in February from 1.40 million in January. Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer. The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory. Inventory was down 9.8% year-over-year in February compared to February 2019. Months of supply was unchanged at 3.1 months in February. This was above the consensus forecast. Note: These number are pre-crisis, and everything will change in the March and April numbers.
Existing Home Sales Soar To 13 Year Highs Ahead Of National Crisis While new- and pending-home-sales popped in January, existing home sales slowed. But, analysts expected a modest bounce in February but instead they soared 6.5% MoM to the highest since Jan 2007... The 5.77mm SAAR sales pace exceeded all forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of economists (with the median estimate at 5.51 million). Sales climbed 18.9% in the West to an annualized 1.26 million units and advanced 7.2% in the South, the nation’s largest region, to 2.52 million. The median sales price increased 8% in February from a year earlier to $270,100 as housing inventory declined on the heels of steady demand.These were contracts agreed in January and signed in February so well before the current crisis began to hit markets and sentiment.“February is looking at the rear-view mirror,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said on a call with reporters.So far in March, “we are seeing a decline in buyer traffic; some homes are actually getting delisted.”Finally, we note that mortgage rates have begun to reverse as rates have spiked (unusually) in the last couple of weeks, suggesting this resurgence in the housing market (stock crash aside) could be near t o an end...
Comments on February Existing Home Sales -- Earlier: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 5.77 million in February. A few key points:1) This is pre-crisis data. Sales will decline sharply in March and April.
2) Existing home sales were up 7.2% year-over-year (YoY) in February.
2) Inventory is very low, and was down 9.8% year-over-year (YoY) in February. Inventory will probably stay low in March as people wait to list their homes.
Sales will probably be down sharply year-over-year in March and April. Note that existing home sales picked up somewhat in the second half of 2019 as interest rates declined. The second graph shows existing home sales Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) by month (Red dashes are 2020), and the minimum and maximum for 2005 through 2019. Sales NSA in February (335,000) were the highest since 2017. Note that sales have been in the middle of the range recently - not absurdly high like in 2005, and not depressed like in 2010 and 2011. Overall this was a solid report. Now, with the pandemic, sales will decline sharply.
Housing Starts decreased to 1.599 Million Annual Rate in February -From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions: Privately‐owned housing starts in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,599,000. This is 1.5 percent below the revised January estimate of 1,624,000, but is 39.2 percent above the February 2019 rate of 1,149,000. Single‐family housing starts in February were at a rate of 1,072,000; this is 6.7 percent above the revised January figure of 1,005,000. The February rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 508,000. Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,464,000. This is 5.5 percent below the revised January rate of 1,550,000, but is 13.8 percent above the February 2019 rate of 1,287,000. Single‐family authorizations in February were at a rate of 1,004,000; this is 1.7 percent above the revised January figure of 987,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 415,000 in February. The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years.Multi-family starts (red, 2+ units) were down in February compared to January. Multi-family starts were up 47.6% year-over-year in February. Multi-family is volatile month-to-month, and had been mostly moving sideways the last several years - but increased sharply recently. Single-family starts (blue) increased in February, and were up 35.4% year-over-year. The second graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968.The second graph shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then eventual recovery (but still historically low). Total housing starts in February were well above expectations and revisions were positive.
Comments on February Housing Starts -This was all pre-crisis. This will change sharply soon, and housing starts will collapse for the duration of the crisis. Earlier: Housing Starts decreased to 1.599 Million Annual Rate in February Total housing starts in February were well above expectations and revisions to prior months were positive. The housing starts report showed starts were down 1.5% in February compared to January (only because January was revised up), and starts were up 39.2% year-over-year compared to February 2019. These were strong numbers! Starts in January were revised up to the highest level for starts since December 2006 (end of the bubble). However, the weather was very nice again in February (just like in December and January), and the weather probably had an impact on the seasonally adjusted housing starts number. Single family starts were up 35.4% year-over-year, and multi-family starts were up 44.3% YoY. This first graph shows the month to month comparison for total starts between 2019 (blue) and 2020 (red). Starts were up 39.2% in February compared to February 2019. Last year, in 2019, starts picked up in the 2nd half of the year, so the comparisons are easy early in the year. Starts will collapse over the next few months due to COVID-19. Below is an update to the graph comparing multi-family starts and completions. Since it usually takes over a year on average to complete a multi-family project, there is a lag between multi-family starts and completions. Completions are important because that is new supply added to the market, and starts are important because that is future new supply (units under construction is also important for employment). The rolling 12 month total for starts (blue line) increased steadily for several years following the great recession - but turned down, and has moved sideways recently. Completions (red line) had lagged behind - then completions caught up with starts- although starts are picking up a little again. Single family Starts and completionsThe second graph shows single family starts and completions. It usually only takes about 6 months between starting a single family home and completion - so the lines are much closer. The blue line is for single family starts and the red line is for single family completions. Note the relatively low level of single family starts and completions. The "wide bottom" was what I was forecasting following the recession, and now I expect some further increases in single family starts and completions once the crisis ends.
NAHB: Builder Confidence Decreased to 72 in March - The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 72, down from 74 in February. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor. From NAHB: Builder Confidence Declines But Remains Solid Amid Rising Risks: Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes fell two points to 72 in March, according to the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. Sentiment levels have held in a firm range in the low- to mid-70s for the past six months. “Builder confidence remains solid, although sales expectations for the next six months dropped four points on economic uncertainty stemming from the coronavirus,” said NAHB Chairman Dean Mon. “Interest rates remain low, and a lack of inventory creates market opportunities for single-family builders.” “It is important to note that half of the builder responses in the March HMI were collected prior to March 4, so the recent stock market declines and the rising economic impact of the coronavirus will be reflected more in next month’s report,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Overall, 21% of builders in the survey report some disruption in supply due to virus concerns in other countries such as China. However, the incidence is higher (33%) among builders who responded to the survey after March 6, indicating that this is an emerging issue.” ... The HMI index gauging current sales conditions fell two points to 79, the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months dropped four points to 75 and the gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers also decreased one point to 56. Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Midwest fell two points to 66, the South moved one point lower to 77 and the West posted a one-point decline to 82. The Northeast rose two points to 64. This graph show the NAHB index since Jan 1985. This was slightly below the consensus forecast, but still another very strong reading. However, this survey was largely prior to the impact of COVID-19. Note: The graph shows the 2020 recession starting in March 2020.
AIA: Architecture Billings Index increased in February, Expected to decline rapidly - Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Design services saw increase in February but economic footings are rapidly shifting: Demand for design services in February increased at a solid pace for the sixth month in a row, according to a new report today from The American Institute of Architects (AIA).AIA’s Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score of 53.4 for February reflects an increase in design services provided by U.S. architecture firms (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). During February, both the new project inquiries and design contracts scores moderated slightly but remained in positive territory, posting scores of 56.5 and 52.0 respectively.“Business conditions at architecture firms have been surprisingly positive so far this year. However, firms were just beginning to feel the impact of the dramatic slowdown caused by COVID-19 as this survey was being conducted in early March.” “The rapid pull-back in activity throughout the economy will obviously be felt in the design and construction sector, and architecture firms will be one of the first to see how these events play out.”• Regional averages: South (56.7); West (52.1); Midwest (51.3); Northeast (45.3)
• Sector index breakdown: mixed practice (51.6); commercial/industrial (51.5); multi-family residential (51.2); institutional (51.1)
This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 53.4 in February, up from 52.2 in January. Anything above 50 indicates expansion in demand for architects' services. Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.
According to the AIA, there is an "approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending" on non-residential construction. This index has been positive for 8 of the previous 12 months, suggesting some increase in CRE investment in 2020. However, this will all change in the next survey - when activity will decline significantly.
Retail Sales decreased 0.5% in February - On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.5 percent from January to February (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 4.3 percent from February 2019. From the Census Bureau report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February 2020, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $528.1 billion, a decrease of 0.5 percent from the previous month, but 4.3 percent above February 2019. This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). Retail sales ex-gasoline were down 0.3% in February. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993. Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 4.9% on a YoY basis. The decrease in February was well below expectations, however sales in December and January were revised up, combined. Note: The graphs show the 2020 recession starting in March 2020.
Industrial Production Increased in February - From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - Industrial production rose 0.6 percent in February after falling 0.5 percent in January. Manufacturing output edged up 0.1 percent in February; excluding a large gain for motor vehicles and parts and a large drop for civilian aircraft, factory output was unchanged. The index for mining declined 1.5 percent, but the index for utilities jumped 7.1 percent, as temperatures returned to more typical levels following an unseasonably warm January. At 109.6 percent of its 2012 average, the level of total industrial production in February was unchanged from a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased 0.4 percentage point in February to 77.0 percent, a rate that is 2.8 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2019) average.This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up 10.3 percentage points from the record low set in June 2009 (the series starts in 1967). Capacity utilization at 77.0% is 2.8% below the average from 1972 to 2017 and below the pre-recession level of 80.8% in December 2007. Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change. Industrial ProductionThe second graph shows industrial production since 1967. Industrial production increased in February to 109.6. This is 25.9% above the recession low, and 4.0% above the pre-recession peak. The change in industrial production was above consensus expectations. Note: The graphs show the 2020 recession starting in March 2020.
NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity declined in New York State", Headline Fell Sharply --From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Business activity declined in New York State, according to firms responding to the March 2020 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell thirty-four points to -21.5, its lowest level since 2009. The new orders index dropped to -9.3, pointing to a decline in orders, and the shipments index fell to -1.7. Delivery times lengthened slightly, and inventories increased. Employment levelled off, and the average workweek declined. Input price increases were little changed, while selling prices increased at a slower pace than last month. Optimism about the six-month outlook fell sharply, with firms less optimistic than they have been since 2009. The index for number of employees fell eight points to -1.5, indicating that employment levels were little changed over the month. The average workweek fell to -10.6, a sign that the average workweek was shorter. This was well below the consensus forecast, and the outlook is the worst since 2009.
Empire Fed Survey Crashes By Most Ever To 11-Year-Lows - After what appears now to be pure hope-driven rebound in February - despite all real world signals screaming otherwise - the Empire Fed's Manufacturing Outlook survey just crashed by the most on record to its lowest since April 2009...The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general business conditions index fell 34.4 points to -21.5... The survey responses were collected between March 2 and March 10.Manufacturers in New York expect a gloomier future too. The index of future business conditions also dropped to an 11-year low. A gauge of shipments fell to the weakest level since September 2016, and the index of the average employee workweek slumped to its lowest level since December 2015.The Empire State survey is the first of several regional Fed manufacturing indexes to be released for the month. Others for areas including Philadelphia, Richmond and Dallas will be released throughout the month. We suspect those rebounds will all be devastated.
Philly Fed Crashes By Most On Record To 9 Year Lows - After soaring unexpectedly to two-year highs in February (as stocks ignored the global disruptions), Philly Fed's Business Outlook Survey has collapsed in March. From 36.7 in February, Philly Fed plunged to -12.7 (massively worse than the +8 estimate from clearly cognitively challenged analysts). That is the weakest level since September 2011... Graph Source: BloombergThis is the biggest drop in Phily Fed... ever... Source: Bloomberg Under the hood - everything tumbled...
- March prices paid fell to 4.8 vs 16.4
- New orders fell to -15.5 vs 33.6
- Employment fell to 4.1 vs 9.8
- Shipments fell to 0.2 vs 25.2
- Delivery time fell to -9.1 vs 2.7
- Inventories fell to 1.7 vs 11.8
- Prices received fell to 6.8 vs 17.1
- Unfilled orders fell to -7.4 vs 7.4
- Average workweek fell to 0.5 vs 10.3
• Occupancy: -24.4% to 53.0%
• Average daily rate (ADR): -10.7% to US$120.30
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): -32.5% to US$63.74
Performance declines were uniform across chain scales, classes and location types. “To no surprise, the hurt continued and intensified for hotels around the country,” said Jan Freitag, STR’s senior VP of lodging insights. “The performance declines were especially pronounced in hotels that cater to meetings and group business, which is a reflection of the latest batch of event cancellations and government guidance to restrict the size of gatherings. “The questions we are hearing the most right now are around how far occupancy will drop and how long this will last. Through comparative analysis of the occupancy trends in China and Italy over the past weeks, we can with certainty say that we are not yet close to the bottom in the U.S. However, the timeline for that decline and the eventual recovery are much tougher to predict because there is still so much uncertainty around the COVID-19 case numbers in the U.S. and how serious citizens are when practicing social distancing. China and Italy saw a more abrupt decline in occupancy because of stricter lockdowns. That will dictate the speed of recovery.” The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. The red line is for 2020, dash light blue is 2019, blue is the median, and black is for 2009 (the worst year probably since the Great Depression for hotels). 2020 was off to a solid start, however, COVID-19 is now significantly impacting occupancy. It is likely the four week average will drop below the 2009 average during the crisis.
Walmart shortens its hours and stores across America close their doors – CNN -The coronavirus crisis is hurting America's retail industry, so many stores are shutting their doors or reducing their hours.Walmart (WMT), the largest retailer in America, said Saturday that it will modify its store hours in response to the pandemic, while other retailers plan to temporarily close stores.Beginning Sunday, all of Walmart's more than 4,700 US stores will be open from 6 am to 11 pm until further notice. The company said the shortened hours will help employees restock shelves overnight and clean stores. Thousands of Walmart stores are already operating under shortened hours.Walmart employees will keep their regular daytime or evening shifts, the company said.Other US grocery stores, including Publix, Giant, Stop & Shop and H-E-B have also modified their hours in recent days as the virus has spread.Late Saturday, Urban Outfitters (URBN) said it will close all of stores around the world and will not reopen them until at least March 28. Patagonia (HGLD), Glossier and Neighborhood Goods have also announced their stores will temporarily close.
Walmart joins group of retailers reducing hours, adding special shopping time for seniors - Walmart cut its store operating hours for the second time in a week Wednesday, in addition to making other store changes amid continued concerns over the coronavirus pandemic. Walmart stores in the U.S. will be open from 7 a.m. until 8:30 p.m. beginning Thursday. The move will “further help associates restock the shelves for customers while continuing to clean and sanitize the store,” Dacona Smith, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of Walmart U.S., said in a Wednesday statement. “Our associates have been nothing short of heroic in their commitment to serve customers, stock shelves as quickly as possible and keep their stores clean," Smith added. "When their communities needed them the most, our people have been at their best. Their efforts continue to be a tremendous source of pride for everyone at Walmart." The store also announced that it will be offering special shopping hours for seniors amid the pandemic. From March 24 through April 28, shoppers 60 and older will be able to enter the store one hour before it opens for all customers. Walmart’s pharmacies and vision centers will also be open to older customers, who are considered among the most vulnerable to the virus, during that time. The store announced that it will have item limits for customers purchasing paper products, milk, eggs, cleaning supplies, hand sanitizer, water, diapers, baby formula and baby food. Grocery stores across the country have been cleared out as Americans stock up on food and other essentials in the case of an emergency, although public health officials and grocery stores have discouraged many from doing so. Walmart will also make changes to two of its department: its auto care centers and vision centers. The stores will temporarily close their auto care centers so that those store associates can help stock and sanitize stores across the country. Walmart vision centers will provide essential services such as glasses repair and filling “existing orders.” At least one store associate will remain in the vision centers, while others will be assigned to “help in the rest of the store,” according to the Wednesday statement.
Amazon suspends warehouse shipments except high-demand products - Amazon has temporarily suspended the shipment of all items from independent merchants to its warehouses that are not medical supplies or “high-demand” products. This temporary suspension will go through 5 April as the e-commerce giant prioritises products relating to combating the growing coronaviruspandemic. “We are temporarily prioritising household staples, medical supplies and other high-demand products coming into our fulfilment centres so we can more quickly receive, restock, and ship these products to customers,” an Amazon spokesperson told the Independent. “We understand this is a change for our selling partners and appreciate their understanding as we temporarily prioritise these products for customers,” the spokesperson added. This decision from Amazon comes after the online site saw an increase in shopping from people around the world. Items prioritised by shoppers and subsequently going out of stock related to cleaning supplies and other necessary items for Covid-19. Independent merchants already experienced issues with selling their products after factories in China shuttered during its own outbreak. As China has gotten a handle on the coronavirus in its country, some of these factories have opened up. But now merchants will have to determine what to do with their products. Amazon said products already en route to its warehouses will be accepted and shipped out. But no new products will be accepted for the next three weeks.
Casino industry estimates $21B in economic losses from coronavirus - The American Gaming Association (AGA) found that if casinos stay closed for the next eight weeks, it will cost the U.S. economy $21.3 billion in direct consumer spending, according a report released on Wednesday. Ninety-four percent of the commercial casinos in the U.S. were closed as of Wednesday afternoon and 37 percent of tribal casinos. Over 530,000 gaming industry employees are out of work, which is 96 percent of the total U.S. casino workforce, according to AGA. The group said it is working with the White House and Congress on relief packages for these employees and providing lawmakers with specific ideas that will provide the liquidity needed to support employees. “The American Gaming Association, in partnership with our colleagues across the hospitality sector, is engaged with Congressional and administration leadership to shape stimulus and aid packages that will support employees, their families, and our communities through this unprecedented crisis,” AGA Senior Vice President of Strategic Communications Casey Clark said in a statement. Casino closures could lead to nearly $59 billion in total wage loss annually for casino workers. Additionally, casino gaming typically generates $34.4 billion in annual total tax revenue. AGA also noted that half the jobs the gaming industry supports are at non-gaming businesses such as restaurants and local shops. Earlier this week, the National Retail Federation asked for a direct, government-based loan program and the National Restaurant Association called for financial relief, loans and tax measures to help it combat the crisis. The airline industry, through Airlines for America, requested $50 billion in the form of grants, loans and tax relief to weather the coronavirus downturn. And the tourism industry, through the U.S. Travel Association and the American Hotel and Lodging Association, has called for $150 billion in overall relief.
Update: Decline in Restaurant Traffic --There are some sectors that will be hit hard over the next several months: hotels, airlines, restaurants, movie theaters, sporting events, and convention centers. People will probably avoid these places as part of social distancing.Here is some restaurant data from OpenTable: This data shows the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US, the states of Washington and New York, and a few impacted cities (Seattle, San Francisco, and Boston).This data is updated through March 15, 2020. Seattle and San Francisco saw a dramatic decline starting at the beginning of March. Starting a few days ago, restaurant traffic is declining sharply just about everywhere. As of yesterday, San Francisco was off 72% YoY, Boston was off 70% YoY, and Seattle was off 62%. Going forward, restaurants are closing in many states (or going to half occupancy). Clearly the US will need to help the employees (and owners) of these impacted sectors.
Supermarkets limit shoppers as FDA officials warn against excessive buying -- The novel coronavirus has pitched grocers onto the front lines of an accelerating public health crisis, forcing many chains to reduce hours and put buying caps on such high-demand foods as ground beef and frozen pizzas. Now some chains and independent grocers are restricting the number of shoppers in their stores or offering hours only for the elderly. In a statement Tuesday, FDA Commissioner Stephen M. Hahn discussed additional steps to help preserve the food supply chain as “grocery stores face unprecedented demand.” “While we are confident that stores will remain open and supply will continue to meet demand nationwide, we ask all Americans to only purchase enough food and essentials for the week ahead,” Hahn said. Industry experts and trade groups say it’s only a matter of time before supermarkets take even more drastic measures, as they look for ways to curb the spread of the highly contagious virus among customers and employees. Many are looking abroad for guidance. In Italy, Lidl is capping stores to 20 shoppers at a time, who are limited to 10-minute slots. In the United Kingdom, some supermarkets are opening an hour early, at 8 a.m., to accommodate elderly shoppers, who are at higher risk if they contract the virus. In China, at the height of its outbreak, stores checked customers’ temperatures at the door and required them to stand at least three feet apart from others in line. U.S. chains such as Kroger, Walmart and Dollar General have already begun shortening store hours to allow employees enough time to restock and disinfect at the end of the day. Costco said in an email to members on Tuesday that it would begin restricting the number of shoppers in stores in the interest of social distancing but did not provide details on how it would do so. Target announced it would reserve an hour on Wednesday mornings for elderly shoppers and those with underlying health conditions.
American Airlines to suspend nearly all long-haul international flights starting March 16 (Reuters) - American Airlines Group Inc (AAL.O) on Saturday said it will implement a phased suspension of nearly all long-haul international flights starting March 16, amid reduced demand and travel restrictions due to the ongoing coronavirus outbreak. Between March 16 and May 6, American will reduce its international capacity by 75% on a year-over-year basis, it said in a statement, adding the changes will result in the airline parking nearly its entire widebody fleet. The airline also anticipates its domestic capacity in April will be reduced by 20% on a year-over-year basis. Domestic capacity for the month of May will be reduced by 30%, the company added.
Covid-19 Could Bankrupt Most Airlines By End Of May - Sydney-based consultancy CAPA Centre for Aviation warned in a statement on Monday morning that most of the world's airlines will be bankrupt by the end of May. Airline carriers are suspending routes for March, April, and May, and full grounding of fleets have yet to be ruled out as flight restrictions have been placed across the world, spurring a collapse in demand, due to the Covid-19 pandemic. "As the impact of the coronavirus and multiple government travel reactions sweep through our world, many airlines have probably already been driven into technical bankruptcy, or are at least substantially in breach of debt covenants. Cash reserves are running down quickly as fleets are grounded and what flights there are operate much less than half full," CAPA said. CAPA said, "demand is drying up in ways that are completely unprecedented. Normality is not yet on the horizon." It said cancellations among global carriers had been seen in more significant amounts with new flight restrictions coming online.Henry Harteveldt, a travel industry analyst in San Francisco, tweeted on Sunday evening that a "Growing number of sources within #airlines & DC telling me the WH giving serious consideration to grounding all passenger flights for 14-30 days (cargo would be exempted)." Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin was heard on Saturday, indicating that the Trump administration is laser-focused on providing relief for airlines and other industries affected by the groundings. CAPA said, "coordinated government and industry action is needed" to avoid a collapse of the airline industry. Otherwise, "emerging from the crisis will be like entering a brutal battlefield, littered with casualties."
Big Three Automakers To Close Factories Due To Coronavirus; Tesla Defies Order - The Big Three Detroit automakers — General Motors (GM), Ford (F) and Fiat Chrysler(FCAU) — are shutting down their factories amid the ongoing coronavirus crisis. Honda Motor(HMC) also is halting North America production. Meanwhile, Tesla (TSLA) continues to keep its Fremont, Calif., factory running despite an order to stop. General Motors confirmed that it will shut all its North America plants "at least" until March 30 due to coronavirus fears. Ford and Fiat Chrysler also have agreed to close plants due to Covid-19 fears, according to multiple reports. They are expected to confirm the shutdowns today. Both Ford and Fiat Chrysler have had employees test positive for coronavirus in the past 24 hours.Ford said it will temporarily suspending production at its manufacturing sites in North America following Thursday's evening shifts through March 30. This will allow it to clean its facilities to protect its workforce and boost containment efforts."We're continuing to work closely with union leaders, especially the United Auto Workers, to find ways to help keep our workforce healthy and safe — even as we look at solutions for continuing to provide the vehicles customers really want and need," Ford's president of North America Kumar Galhotra said in a press release. The move will idle about 150,000 autoworkers. They are expected to receive supplemental pay in addition to state unemployment benefits. Combined these should roughly equal what they usually earn.
Automakers shut North American plants over coronavirus fears - — Concerns about the spreading coronavirus forced most of North America’s auto plants to close, at least temporarily. Ford, General Motors, Fiat Chrysler, Honda, and Toyota said they would shut down all factories in the region, citing concerns for employees who work in close quarters building automobiles. Nissan will close U.S. factories. Hyundai shut down its Alabama plant after a worker tested positive for the virus.Detroit’s three automakers said their closures would begin this week, while Honda and Toyota will start next week. Nissan will close U.S. plants starting Friday. Closings will run from a few days to over two weeks, but most automakers said they’ll have to evaluate the spread of the virus before reopening.“We have been taking extraordinary precautions around the world to keep our plant environments safe, and recent developments in North America make it clear this is the right thing to do now,” GM CEO Mary Barra said in a statement. Detroit’s three automakers alone will idle about 150,000 workers. They likely will receive supplemental pay in addition to state unemployment benefits. The two checks combined will about equal what the workers normally make. GM said pay was still being negotiated with the United Auto Workers union. Ford said it will work with union leaders in the coming weeks on plans to restart factories. The union has been pushing for factories to close because workers are fearful of coming into contact with the virus.
Detroit automakers shut down plants but workers may return to build ventilators - Detroit automakers shut down their North American plants this week amid growing fears over coronavirus spreading among blue-collar employees working in tight quarters. Soon they could be back – building ventilators as a shortage presents the US with a potential health crisis. Relations between the Big Three – General Motors, Ford and Fiat Chrysler – have been tense of late after GM workers walked out in their first strike in a decade. But most workers are probably open to returning to the line, said D’Andre Jackson, a United Auto Workers (UAW) committee representative at GM’s Flint Assembly Plant. He added that he would “go back if it would help the country”. “I think the majority of the UAW members wouldn’t mind doing what it takes to get America back running,” Jackson said. Though workers just demanded to leave the plant over coronavirus fears, Jackson said the cause has changed. “Instead of working for profit, you’re working to help save some lives, and I think a lot of people would join in on that,” he said. “It’s what they did during wartime, and that’s what they say we’re in now. I think that if it was on a voluntary basis they could get people to go back in.” Both automakers have confirmed that they are in discussions with the US government, which this week invoked the Defense Production Act, legislation that goes back to the second world war and grants the president broad powers to direct industrial production. “Right now, we are doing an internal study to evaluate this as an option, and we are looking at ways we could help during this crisis including potentially supporting production of medical equipment such as ventilators,” a GM spokeswoman, Jeannine Ginivan, told the Guardian. However, a United Auto Workers spokesman, Brian Rothenberg, said the proposal had not been run by the union. Its leadership was busy working to shut down the plants and did not immediately have a comment, he added. It’s unclear how retooling the factories or sending workers back into them during a pandemic might work. The Trump administration economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, told Fox News this week that an executive said she “might even ask them to do it on a voluntary basis for civic and patriotic reasons. That’s the kind of can-do spirit that we’re hearing and seeing”. Ford, which will suspend production following Thursday evening shifts through 30 March, said in a statement that it “stands ready to help the administration in any way we can, including the possibility of producing ventilators and other equipment”.
BLS: Job Openings increased to 7.0 Million in January -- From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary: The number of job openings rose to 7.0 million (+411,000) on the last business day of January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5.8 million and 5.6 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate was unchanged at 2.3 percent and the layoffs and discharges rate was little changed at 1.1 percent. ... The number of quits was little changed in January at 3.5 million and the rate was unchanged at 2.3 percent. The quits level was little changed for total private but fell for government (-18,000). Quits decreased in other services (-46,000), state and local government education (-12,000), and federal government (-5,000). The quits level increased in real estate and rental and leasing (+14,000). The following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. This series started in December 2000. Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers..
BLS: January Unemployment rates at New Series Lows in Six States From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary - Unemployment rates were lower in January in 5 states and stable in 45 states and the District of Columbia, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Eleven states had jobless rate decreases from a year earlier, 1 state had an increase, and 38 states and the District had little or no change. The national unemployment rate, 3.6 percent, was little changed over the month but was 0.4 percentage point lower than in January 2019....North Dakota had the lowest unemployment rate in January, 2.3 percent, while Alaska had the highest rate, 6.0 percent. The rates in Alaska (6.0 percent), Illinois (3.5 percent), Nevada (3.6 percent), New York (3.8 percent), Oregon (3.3 percent), and Washington (3.9 percent) set new series lows. (All state series begin in 1976.) This graph shows the number of states (and D.C.) with unemployment rates at or above certain levels since January 1976. At the worst of the great recession, there were 11 states with an unemployment rate at or above 11% (red). Currently only one state, Alaska, has an unemployment rate at or above 6% (dark blue). Note that Alaska is at a series low (since 1976). Four states and the D.C. have unemployment rates above 5%; Alaska, Louisiana, Mississippi and West Virginia. A total of seventeen states are at a series low: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Maryland, Nevada, New York, North Dakota, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee and Washington
Millions of Americans could lose their jobs in a coronavirus recession. Many won’t get severance - The odds of slipping into a recession are increasingly likely as the global coronavirus outbreak puts acute stress on the U.S. economy. That could be bad news for American workers, who may lose jobs by the millions in a downturn. For those workers who don’t receive severance pay, the financial impact could be especially devastating. “The ripple effect can be dramatic in so many different industries.” The coronavirus, which causes a disease officially known as COVID-19, has spread rapidly around the globe since it originated in China late last year. More than 169,000 people have been infected worldwide, and more than 6,500 have died. Financial markets have cratered. American life has come to a screeching halt, as schools and cultural institutions have closed, sports leagues have suspended their seasons, major events have been canceled and state officials have moved to ban large gatherings. Officials from major cities like New York have ordered bars and restaurants to close to limit community spread. Economic cracks are beginning to emerge. Small-business owners are starting to report supply-chain problems and lost sales. The travel industry is reeling. Big oil and gas companies are slashing spending and cutting dividends amid a plunge in oil prices. Consumer spending has fallen as Americans pull back from their daily routines. The coronavirus fallout has been so dramatic that many economists think the U.S. is headed for a recession. Some economists believe the recession has already begun. “I wouldn’t be one bit surprised if when we look back at the data, it is decided ... that the recession started in March,” Blinder, a former Federal Reserve vice chairman and now a professor at Princeton, told CNBC’s “Squawk Alley.” Some reports have emerged that layoffs have already begun in businesses across the country.
14 Million Americans Have Been Laid Off So Far Due To COVID-19 - A staggering 9% of working Americans, or 14 million people, have been laid off as a result of the Chinese coronavirus panic, while 25% of workers have had their hours reduced according to extrapolated polling by Survey USA. A SurveyUSA poll taken one week ago showed just 1% of Americans would take home no paycheck.Virtually every American was either laid off or has family members & friends who have. I know AN ENTIRE IMMEDIATE FAMILY (husband,wife, two adult children & their 2 spouses) all laid off in last 72 hours.But some people want to argue over what name we should use for the virus— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) March 20, 2020 Of note, in California alone, Governor Gavin Newsom said on Thursday that unemployment insurance filings had spiked by 80,000 on Tuesday alone, vs. the usual rate of around 2,000 per day. Meanwhile in Ohio, jobless claims have spiked to nearly 140,000 vs. last week.
Nearly 20% Of Households Have Already Lost Work Due To Pandemic-Shutdowns The arrival of helicopter money in the form of two $1,000 checks to most Americans is the government's acknowledgment that the economy crashed, and upwards of 30 million people could be unemployed due to the Covid-19 outbreak shutting down cities and towns across America.A new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll has shown that 1 in 5 households have already experienced a layoff or reduction in work hours thanks to social distancing measures enforced by the government that is grinding local economies to a halt.People across the country are staying home, avoiding large crowds, and ordering food on Amazon, as the fast-spreading virus is rapidly infecting people in New York, Washington state, and California. Confirmed cases have now been recorded in all 50 states. The federal government missed containment windows to implement social distancing policies by nearly a month, and this means cases are likely to be exponential in the days or weeks ahead. Deaths have stayed low at this point because ICU treatment capacity at major hospitals has yet to be overwhelmed, but when they do, America could be the next Italy. Bill Gates said on Wednesday that virus shutdowns could last upwards of ten weeks. The most affected industries have so far been restaurants, bars, hotels, casinos, cruise ships, and airlines, but as we noted last week, the ripple effect has collapsed the entire gig and service economy. The poll was conducted on March 13-14, shows layoffs and reduced hours had already hit 18% of households. Lower-income households were hit the hardest, at least a quarter of them were making $50,000 per year had the most hours cut or experienced the most significant amount of job losses. Most of the jobs that experienced reduced hours or have been entirely cut have been blue-collar and service or retail jobs, which cannot be conducted remotely.
Oil giants set health checks for critical staff, work-from-home rules – (Reuters) - Major energy companies in the United States imposed work-from-home rules for office staff and began health checks for remote or critical workers as coronavirus spread and threatened an industry reeling from falling demand and profits. BP, Exxon Mobil, Kinder Morgan, Motiva Enterprises and Royal Dutch Shell told most office staff to work from home starting Monday. Federal regulators on Friday were pressed by companies to ease work rules for pipeline operators and to limit visits to some sites. Shell and Chevron began health checks of workers and visitors at some key U.S. facilities, spokesmen said. Offshore rigs, refineries and pipelines require on-site teams and group workers in close quarters, making them vulnerable in a Covid-19 outbreak. They cannot be run remotely and health checks could prevent forced shutdowns that could lead to big losses or local fuel shortages. The pandemic has infected more than 156,000 people worldwide including some 2,900 people in the United States, killed more than 5,800 globally and slashed fuel demand amid shuttered schools, churches, offices and some retail stores. There is only one known case of Covid-19 to hit a U.S. refinery. Marathon Petroleum Corp, the nation’s largest refiner by capacity, removed some staff at a California plant after an employee became ill. Norwegian oil firm Equinor halted a North Sea development project and removed staff after an offshore worker fell ill. Falling oil demand and a price-war that slashed crude prices by about 50% this year has put the industry in a tailspin. Many oil firms have abruptly cut spending and staff to cope with the downturn. Work-at-home rules, fewer car and plane trips are expected to reduce U.S. petroleum demand by up to 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd). For the full year, it could cut motor fuel use by roughly 300,000 to 400,000 bpd. There have been no refining or chemical plant shut-ins caused by coronavirus. Still, companies are drafting plans similar to hurricane measures that keep plants running with minimal staff, said people familiar with operations. Shell asked salaried staff at its Louisiana refineries to begin shadowing hourly plant operators to prepare managers to run units if necessary, the people said. Exxon will allow only trained operators into control rooms at its Baytown plant, and they must remain at least six feet apart from one another, they added.
‘Grotesque Level of Greed’: Owned by World’s Richest Man Jeff Bezos, Whole Foods Wants Workers to Pay for Colleagues’ Sick Leave During Coronavirus Pandemic When progressives like Sen. Bernie Sanders say “now is the time for solidarity” amid the coronavirus outbreak, they likely do not mean that employees of Whole Foods—owned by the world’s richest man, Jeff Bezos—should be asked to give their own accrued paid sick days to their co-workers who have either contracted the deadly virus or been forced to take time out of work because of what is now a global pandemic.But that is exactly what executives with the grocery chain are asking its employers to do, even though Bezos’ could effectively give them unlimited paid sick leave during the current national emergency without barely a scratch in his bank account.In a letter sent to employees earlier this week, Whole Foods CEO John Mackey explained that one of the options available to workers was for them to “donate” their “paid time off” (pto) days to a pool that other workers could draw from.Journalist Lauren Kaori Gurley, who broke the story with reporting for Motherboard, notes that “as a subsidiary of Amazon, the world’s biggest company, Whole Foods could easily afford to pay its hourly employees for sick days taken during the coronavirus outbreak without breaking the bank. Instead, the company has put the onus back on workers, and they’re not happy about it.”In Mackey’s letter reviewed by Motherboard, the executive stated: “Team Members who have a medical emergency or death in their immediate family can receive donated PTO hours, not only from Team Members in their own location, but also from Team Members across the country.” Though such labor practices are not unusual—with workers in various sectors and industries pooling accumulated sick leave for a colleague experiencing a long-term illness—doing so in the face of a global pandemic, in which all members of society are equally at heightened risk, the move was seen by critics as shortsighted, tone deaf, and cruel. The fabulous wealth of Bezos only increased the ire for many.
$1.4 Billion In Sporting Event Tickets May Have Just Went Poof! - The shock and fallout from the coronavirus has been no more noticeable in many American households than with the suspension of major sporting events. But the shock isn't just on TV. The secondary market for ticket holders has also collapsed, with a total of $1.4 billion worth of tickets now "up in the air", according to Bloomberg. The $1.4 billion number doesn't even include the NHL or NBA playoffs (which would be taking place in upcoming months) and is indicative of a small sliver of money that could be lost as a result of the global coronavirus outbreak. The Los Angeles Lakers alone, for example, have $82.1 million in tickets tied to finishing the rest of the regular season. The Toronto Maple Leafs have $42.2 million.Over the last week, almost all major sporting leagues have suspended events, led by the NBA who abruptly cancelled a Utah Jazz vs. Oklahoma Thunder game last week, before shortly announcing that the rest of the league would be suspended. The Utah's Jazz's Rudy Gobert tested positive for the novel coronavirus, it was revealed the next day.Executives at the NHL and NBA have said they intend on completing the season, but there's no timeline for doing so as of yet. TicketIQ said they would refund any ticket sold on their site for events that have been canceled. For games that have been "postponed", the site says it is waiting to hear from the league.
"Unparalleled Challenge" - Inside America's First Locked-Down Major City, "Everything's Out Of Our Control" - The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the US has more than doubled in the last several days. California Governor Gavin Newsom has issued a state-wide "stay at home" order amid the virus outbreak - the strongest and most restrictive measure passed by a governor yet. On Tuesday, there were about 5,700 confirmed cases in the US. But by Thursday the number exploded to 11,500. Now, on Friday morning, confirmed cases stand at 14,000. The announcement comes after San Francisco and the surrounding Bay Area issued 'shelter in place' orders after a surge of deaths and confirmations in the state. As of Friday morning, there are 18 virus-related deaths.Several days into one of the most extreme lockdowns, Bay Area residents have been forced to stay at home, only allowed to leave for essential travel, such as shopping for groceries, medications, fuel, caring for others, and exercise. NBC News spoke with one resident, Trish Tracey, who had to shutter her restaurant on Tuesday in the Mission district. She laid off her entire kitchen staff of 17 employees and has tried to renegotiate her lease. "Everything is out of our control," Tracey said.The uncertainty of where the city is in the pandemic curve has left everyone confused. Strict social distancing rules have been enforced to slowdown infections to prevent local hospitals from becoming overburden with virus patients."The goal is to get up and running again and put all my employees back to work," Tracey said. "I wish I could say with certainty that would happen, and I'm very determined, and I lasted five years because of that, but everything is on pretty shaky ground right now."The mass lockdown in San Francisco is serving as the blueprint of how other local governments in the state might have to resort to Martial law-style lockdowns. Other states, such as New York and Maryland, could be days or weeks away from a major lockdown to flatten the curve.Bay Area hospitals have started seeing an influx of COVID-19 patients in recent weeks:"This is a challenge unparalleled to any challenge I have faced in the last 28 years of my career," Dr. Baldev Singh, a pulmonary critical care physician in nearby San Jose.
Music in the age of plague - If you hadn’t noticed, every single major tour within the next six months has been postponed, or will be postponed but can’t admit it. Glastonbury has been cancelled, the Stones are not rolling and Eurovision, to everyone’s great consternation, is off. No better is this wave of mutilation captured than in the share price of Live Nation, the totemic $7.8bn music company that acts across all the verticals of the live music industry: This isn’t just a problem for the big artists but the smaller ones also who, having worked tirelessly to reach a level where a combination of two tours a year, merchandise sales and various content-related income streams can support a semblance of a normal lifestyle, will be struggling to keep their heads above water. You may think that everyone self-isolating will mean more streaming, but from what we know so far that’s not the case. In Italy, the top 200 songs on Spotify actually saw a 23 per cent decline in the number of streams between March 3 and March 17, according to Quartz. Perhaps because music was often listened to in the office, or on the way to work, and is a poor substitute for other forms of entertainment when at home.Calls have been made for Spotify to triple the royalty fees it pays to musicians over this period to make up any deficit, but given the company’s relative lack of profitability, this seems unlikely. Other businesses, however, have been more supportive. Bandcamp, the digital music storefront, has waived its share of the artists’ revenues today to drum up cash for those at the bottom of the food chain. So our advice would be to Alphaville readers with deep pockets and secure jobs looking to support their favourite artist: buy a limited edition vinyl of your favourite act on Bandcamp. Now. (From the internet, obviously, not an actual physical store.) Whether it be a chart-topper, or a compilation of private label American new-age music, every penny counts.
Utilities Face Pressure To Stop Shutting Off Services Amid Coronavirus Pandemic --A breakup doubled Andrea Guinn’s living expenses overnight. Saddled with the bills and rent for the apartment she once shared with her ex in Queens, she fell behind on payments to Consolidated Edison, the $29 billion investor-owned utility that enjoys a monopoly on electricity in New York City. By February, the 33-year-old said, she paid off all but $74 of the nearly $600 she owed the utility and stayed current on her monthly bills. But one night last month, she came home and discovered Con Edison had cut her power off anyway. She charged her dead phone on a nearly drained laptop battery and called the company, demanding it turn the power back on after failing to give proper notice. Staying awake by candlelight, she finally reached an operator at 1 a.m. The utility restored electricity the next day. So as the coronavirus outbreak cascaded into a full-blown economic and public health crisis this week, Guinn was relieved when New York regulators said Friday that electrical and gas utilities across the state had agreed to stop disconnecting services for nonpayment. “It shouldn’t take a pandemic for people to realize that energy should be a right,” said Guinn, 33, who works in Manhattan as a graphic designer. “Even briefly having that interrupted made me realize how precarious our system is… it’s terrifying.” By Friday evening, regulators in at least eight states and five cities had directed utilities to maintain connections to ratepayers struggling to keep up with bills as officials urged Americans to stay home to avoid spreading COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus. Nearly 50 more companies voluntarily pledged to postpone shutoffs, according to a survey by a watchdog group.
‘We’re hustlers’: Amid coronavirus fears, this couple has made more than $100,000 reselling Lysol wipes - As Manny Ranga and his wife, Violeta Perez, loaded up their Ford F-150 pickup outside a Costco near downtown Vancouver this week, some passersby couldn’t help but stop and stare. What stood out wasn’t just the sheer volume of the couple’s purchase. It was the fact that it was all the same product: Stacks upon stacks of Lysol disinfecting wipes. The couple say they’ve made a bundle in the past three weeks hitting up every Costco store in the region each day, buying up as many Lysol wipes and liquid cleaners as they can — spending thousands of dollars at a time — and then reselling them, mostly on Amazon, to private individuals and companies. Amid the growing coronavirus outbreak, the hoarding and reselling of certain household supplies to make a quick buck has become a global phenomenon, contributing to frenzied panic buying by shoppers who’ve been fed a steady diet of images of empty store shelves on social media. Ranga, 38, said one six-pack of wipes that goes for $20 at Costco can fetch four times that online. (A check of Amazon on Thursday showed that a six-pack was going for $89 under their seller name “Violeta & Sons Trading Ltd.”)
Florida governor refuses to close beaches as coronavirus cases rise | TheHill -Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) said Tuesday that he will not be ordering the beaches in his state to close despite growing concerns over the international COVID-19 outbreak, NBC News reports. DeSantis said that beaches in the state must adhere to guidelines issued by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), which has advised the public to practice social distancing and avoid gatherings with more than 10 people."What we're going to be doing for the statewide floor for beaches, we're going to be applying the CDC guidance of no group on a beach more than 10 and you have to have distance apart if you're going to be out there. So that applies statewide,” DeSantis reportedly said at a press conference.“We’ve seen some big crowds on the west coast of Florida and I’ve had a chance to speak to mayors on both coast today,” DeSantis also said, according to a local NBC affiliate. “If … they want to continue to [leave the beach open], we want them to have the freedom to do that, but we also want them to have the freedom to do more if they see fit.” The Florida Republican added that it is “not uniform throughout the state that you're seeing massive crowds at beaches.” However, DeSantis did urge students celebrating spring break to exercise more caution as the state works to combat the spread. Florida'sDepartment of Health has reported more than 280 cases of residents with the virus and seven deaths so far.“The universities with the spring break … a lot of students have just been congregating at the universities and going out and doing things there, and that’s not something we want,” DeSantis said at one point during his press conference on Tuesday, according to Fox News.His comments came after footage went viral recently showing thousands of beachgoers descending on Clearwater Beach, Fla., despite warnings from health officials urging social distancing amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Though the CDC has said experts are still learning how the novel coronavirus spreads, it says on its website that the disease is thought to be transmitted primarily through “person-to-person" contact.
Coronavirus in California: Toilet paper alternatives cause sewer problems - Some desperate California residents resorted to using shredded T-shirts in the absence of toilet paper during the coronavirus crisis – but ended up wiping out a sewer line. Wastewater management officials in Redding said workers had to take swift action to prevent a dangerous spill after the soiled fabric caused a backup. “The pumps were clogged by what appeared to be shredded T-shirts that were used in place of toilet paper,” the city said, according to the Redding Record Searchlight. As a result of the crappy situation, officials put out the word: “Bag it. Don’t flush it.”
Self-Defeating Fuck-Ups — Part II - Dave Cohen -- By now you've probably heard the term — social distancing. In short, the call is for humans to isolate themselves from others to prevent an exponential rise in COVID-19 cases. What's the quickest way to drive a human crazy? Well, one of the fastest, most effective ways is to put them in solitary confinement. As I've stressed in the past, humans are social animals. With exception of true introverts like me, humans thrive around other people. Humans get energy from social interactions. If those interactions are cut off, humans become angry. If they are helpless and thus can not fix the problem, they become depressed and despondent, which often serves to mask their anger. Sorry, that's just the way it is. But wait, there's more. I'll use my local situation as an example. I'm in Pittsburgh. It's pretty typical of what's happening in the United States. Can I go to a movie? Nope. The theatres are closed by state decree. Can I go to my local bar? Nope. All the bars are closed by state decree. Can I go out to eat? Nope. All the restaurants are closed by state decree. Can I go out to hear some music? Nope. All such venues are closed by state decree. Can I go to see a hockey or basketball game? Or watch one on TV? Nope, the NHL and NBA have suspended play. Can I go anywhere outside the house to be around other people? Nope, unless it's a gathering of less than 10 as decreed by the state. Can I at least go to a liquor store to buy some wine and drink it at home to let off some steam? Nope, the state-controlled liquor stores are closed by state decree. Now, if you combine stressful social isolation with the cutting off of nearly all modes of socializing or the standard modes of coping to ease life's pain, what do you think is going to happen? Here's what I think is going to happen: the big brains of a lot these stressed out humans are going to go haywire. And lots of those humans own guns here in the United States. There's been a run at the grocery stores on bottled water, toilet paper and other paper products, canned goods and frozen vegetables. At Walmart and other big box retailers, there's also been a large run on guns. And the longer this goes on, the greater the chances that people's big brains will go haywire. Sorry, but that's just how humans work.
New York City finally closes public schools during coronavirus pandemic - After an unconscionable delay, Democratic New York Governor Andrew Cuomo announced on Sunday evening that New York City, the largest city in the United States, would close its public schools this week. According the United Federation of Teachers (UFT), students will not report to school on Monday and will remain out until April 20. Staff, however, will go into work on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday to prepare distance learning lessons. Public health experts and epidemiologists have advised federal, state and local governments for weeks now that the most significant action they could take to mitigate sickness and death from the coronavirus was to encourage social distancing by limiting large gatherings and closing down large public institutions such as schools. On March 6, for example, Dr. Howard Markel, a specialist in the history of pandemics, wrote an Op-Ed in the New York Timesentitled, “Coronavirus School Closings: Don’t Wait Until It’s Too late.” Referencing his study of the 1918-1919 Spanish Flu pandemic, Markel wrote, “School closing turned out to be one of the most effective firewalls against the spread of the pandemic; cities that acted fast, for lengthy periods, and included school closing … saw the lowest death rates.” However, as late as last Monday only 507 schools were closed in the US, roughly 0.4 percent of the total. With the rapid spread of the pandemic beginning to take hold in public consciousness over the past week, amid the complete absence of federal action, local and state officials were forced to carry out statewide and district closures en masse. As of this writing, 26 states have now closed all public schools, and a total of at least 56,000 schools have closed, affecting at least 29.5 million public school students. New York City is a center of the coronavirus outbreak in the United States. While thousands in the city are in quarantine and, as of Sunday, 269 people have tested positive for the COVID-19 virus, these figures do not reflect the full scale of the pandemic, since testing is not widely available. Two people have died from the virus, but that number is expected to increase substantially. New York City has the country’s largest school district, with 1.1 million students in 1,900 schools. Cuomo also closed public schools on Long Island and in Westchester County, another center of the coronavirus outbreak, on a similar schedule. The incredibly long delay of school closures to these districts has undoubtedly magnified the spread of coronavirus throughout the region.
Climate Education Empowers Students to Action - e way that schools can provide climate change education to their students is with some outside help. That’s how Woodland Hills School District in Allegheny County became the first in Pennsylvania to pass a climate change resolution. The school district’s climate change efforts first started when Communitopia, a Pittsburgh-based nonprofit that aims to slow climate change and build resilient communities through education, did a presentation for 8th graders at Woodland Hills last school year. Communitopia’s ready-made climate curriculum is tweaked for each school, according to Katie Modic, executive director. “We call it a climate kit. Everything is reusable,” she said. “It’s laminated so I can just use it again with another group.” The kit has a huge binder, with a pencil case that has all the tools students need to do the activities in the book. One page is an air quality map of the pollution hot spots in Allegheny County. “We also have then an overlay, which is just one of those transparencies, that have the major point sources of pollution in Pittsburgh,” Modic said. “And so kids find where their school is, and where they live, and they start to make some connections with some of the air quality issues in our region.” One source of pollution on the sheet is U.S. Steel’s Edgar Thomson Works in Braddock. That’s why Communitopia reached out to Woodland Hills School District, where many students live in the areas surrounding the plant. Communitopia focuses on environmental justice communities identified by the state, where, because of income and/or race, residents are disproportionately impacted by things like industrial pollution, traffic density and lack of trees. “We look at the history of when we started to burn fossil fuels, and what started to happen in our atmosphere as a result,” Modic said. She connects the carbon spike with global temperature rise, as well as how burning fossil fuels can impact a community’s health. But Modic said teaching climate science and local impacts is just the first part of her 90-minute presentation. “The majority really is about empowering students to find their voice within that, and identify what stands out to them,” she said.
Why the Coronavirus Pandemic Could Weaken the School Privatization Agenda - As Valerie Strauss at the Washington Post reported, popular college admission exams such as the SAT and ACT were suddenly being canceled, and some states and school districts were considering cancelations of standardized testing or giving mixed messages about enforcing assessment policies.The U.S. Department of Education also announced it would consider waiving the national requirement for states to conduct annual assessments.A few days later, Strauss reported, state leaders in Texas and Washington canceled testing and Ohio Governor Mike DeWine indicated an inclination to eliminate exams. Those early cancelations seemed to have resulted in a domino effect as more states canceled or suspended tests or sought waivers from the federal government.Some states are choosing to shutter school buildings for the rest of the academic year, while pledges some schools have made to take learning online seem unrealistic.Among the states to outright cancel was Florida, where Governor DeSantis also pushed back school openings and waived the 180-day requirements for students.Fund Education Now issued a thank-you to DeSantis for dropping the tests and seat-time requirement, but Oropeza still expressed concern to me that Florida lawmakers would “stick like glue to their school accountability agenda” even as the coronavirus epidemic and its impact on schools, families, and communities pushed that agenda to the margins of irrelevancy.Not content with a rollback of testing in a few states, state officials and public school advocates, including the Network for Public Education, called on the federal government to drop legal requirements for states to conduct annual assessments. Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos told some states they could cancel tests only if their testing period overlapped days when schools were closed due to the pandemic, but many of these states are urging her to issue a nationwide waiver, and some states, including California and Colorado, are ignoring her guidance.
Student organized investigation finds that Pomona College in California has denied 70 percent of housing requests - Students at Pomona College, a private liberal arts college in Claremont, California, are organizing in order to secure emergency student housing amid the growing coronavirus pandemic which has shut down campuses across the country. Hundreds of students at Pomona are now facing forced eviction from the campus. “I’m being evicted from Pomona college. I’ve been homeless since I was 16. I come from an extremely abusive home without access to heat, hot water or food” one student, who spoke to the WSWS under the condition of anonymity, explained. According to the students who spoke with our reporters, the student body was informed on Wednesday, March 11, that they were not to return to campus after spring break because of the pandemic. The students were provided two links: one to petition to remain on campus, and another to request funding for a flight home. They were told to expect a response about staying on campus at noon on Friday, March 13. A student group which has organized against the measures reported that the majority of responses went out at 11:44 p.m., well after the deadline. Many students were amazed to hear their requests were denied despite their dire circumstances. The group of students which has come to call itself “Occupy Pomona” began conducting their own investigation into the denials after receiving little assistance from college administrators. The group of students polled the student body to find out how many people had applied for housing, what reason they had given, and whether or not their request was approved. The results have been devastating. Of the 19 students who reported to the administration that they would be homeless if forced to evacuate, 11 were denied extended housing. Over 50 students requested housing because of issues of security and lack of resources—46 of them were denied. At least 24 students reported that they would be returning to a home with family members with compromised immune systems; only 2 of these students were granted extended housing.
Trump: Federal student loan borrowers can suspend payments for 60 days - President Donald Trump announced on Friday that he will allow the nation’s more than 42 million federal student loan borrowers to take a break from making their monthly payments, without incurring interest or penalties for at least the next two months. Trump also announced that he will let states waive federal testing requirements for elementary and high school students, both moves in response to the coronavirus pandemic. State leaders have been increasingly anxious about testing mandates as the coronavirus shutters schools across the nation. On student loans, in addition to suspending payments, the Education Department said it would set the interest rates on all federally held student loans to zero until at least May 12. That carries out Trump’s announcement last week that he was waiving the interest on student loans. Trump said student borrowers won't have to make loan payments “for at least the next 60 days and if we need more we’ll extend that period of time.” To obtain the 60-day reprieve, borrowers who have federally held loans will have to make a request of their loan servicers, such as Navient, Nelnet, FedLoan Servicing or Great Lakes, over the phone or online. But for borrowers who are already more than a month behind on their monthly loan payments, the Trump administration will automatically apply the 60-day suspension. More than 3.2 million federally-held student loans are more than 31 days delinquent and another 7.7 million are in default, according to the Education Department’s most recent quarterly data. “These are anxious times, particularly for students and families whose educations, careers, and lives have been disrupted,” Education Secretary Betsy DeVos said in a statement. “Right now, everyone should be focused on staying safe and healthy, not worrying about their student loan balance growing.”
How Lifesaving Organs For Transplant Go Missing In Transit --When a human heart was left behind by mistake on a Southwest Airlines plane in 2018, transplant officials downplayed the incident. They emphasized that the organ was used for valves and tissues, not to save the life of a waiting patient, so the delay was inconsequential. That high-profile event was dismissed as an anomaly, but a new analysis of transplant data finds that a startling number of lifesaving organs are lost or delayed after being shipped on commercial flights, the delays often rendering them unusable.In a nation where nearly 113,000 people are waiting for transplants, scores of organs — mostly kidneys — are discarded after they don’t reach their destination in time.Between 2014 and 2019, nearly 170 organs could not be transplanted and almost 370 endured “near misses,” with delays of two hours or more, after transportation problems, according to an investigation by Kaiser Health News and Reveal from the Center for Investigative Reporting. The media organizations reviewed data from more than 8,800 organ and tissue shipments collected voluntarily and shared upon request by the United Network for Organ Sharing, or UNOS, the nonprofit government contractor that oversees the nation’s transplant system. Twenty-two additional organs classified as transportation “failures” were ultimately able to be transplanted elsewhere.Surgeons themselves often go to hospitals to collect and transport hearts, which survive only four to six hours out of the body. But kidneys and pancreases — which have longer shelf lives — often travel commercial, as cargo. As such, they can end up missing connecting flights or delayed like lost luggage. Worse still, they are typically tracked with a primitive system of phone calls and paper manifests, with no GPS or other electronic tracking required.Transplant surgeons around the country, irate and distressed, told KHN they have lost the chance to transplant otherwise usable kidneys because of logistics.
CDC: Seasonal Flu Activity Slowing - Seasonal flu activity is slowing, and that will help with the rapidly increasing COVID-19 pandemic. From the CDC: Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance ReportLaboratory confirmed flu activity as reported by clinical laboratories continued to decrease; however, influenza-like illness activity increased. Influenza severity indicators remain moderate to low overall, but hospitalization rates differ by age group, with high rates among children and young adults.…Nationally, the percent of specimens testing positive for influenza at clinical laboratories continued to decrease while ILI activity increased for the second week in a row after declining for three weeks. Due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, more people may be seeking care for respiratory illness than usual at this time. Note that ILI (influenza-like illness) activity is increasing due to COVID-19.
Sushi Parasite Has Increased 283x in Nearly 40 Years - The population of a marine parasite that sometimes worms its way into sushi has increased by 283 times in the last nearly 40 years, a University of Washington (UW)-led study has found.The study, published in Global Change Biology Thursday, reviewed the literature and found a significant rise in the abundance of the parasite Anisakis, or "herring worm." This isn't especially concerning for humans, who experience the worm as a nasty bout of food poisoning that then resolves, but it could have serious consequences for marine mammals, who play host to the parasites for years. "One of the important implications of this study is that now we know there is this massive, rising health risk to marine mammals," study coauthor and UW School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences assistant professor Chelsea Wood said in the UW press release. "It's not often considered that parasites might be the reason that some marine mammal populations are failing to bounce back. I hope this study encourages people to look at intestinal parasites as a potential cap on the population growth of endangered and threatened marine mammals."
BPA and babies: Controversial chemical and substitutes pollute the womb -Bisphenol A and its substitute chemicals—pervasive in food and beverage containers, canned goods and store receipts—are showing up in mothers' wombs at "unexpectedly high levels," according to a new study published in the journalEnvironmental Science and Technology. The study builds on previous evidence that BPA and its common replacement BPS can pass through a mother's placenta and is the first to show the same for a range of other replacements, suggesting that fetuses are being exposed to a cocktail of chemicals linked to behavioral and reproductive disorders, among other health problems. "We are very clearly seeing these compounds going straight to the baby at totally unacceptable concentrations," Terrence Collins, a green chemist at Carnegie Mellon University, who was not involved in the study, told EHN.The study, published in March, looked for 15 different bisphenols—including a BPA, BPS and other popular substitutes—in 60 pairs of maternal plasma, cord plasma and placenta samples from pregnant women in South China. Four bisphenols were frequently detected in all three samples: BPA, BPS, BPAF and BPE.BPSIP, a relatively new compound commonly used in thermal paper for store receipts, appeared at high levels in all maternal plasma samples. The researchers note that BPSIP "exhibits a similar estrogenic potency and greater reproductive toxicity than BPA.""This is another shriek from nature, 'Stop throwing BPA, or things like it, at me,'" added Collins. The study is concerning as BPA is a known endocrine disruptor, meaning it is capable of scrambling hormone signals, and has been linked to cancer, diabetes and infertility. In-utero BPA exposure has been shown to derail the normal growth of the brain and other organs and manifest later in life as early puberty or an increase in anxiety-related behaviors or attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Some replacements have been tied to similar issues including obesity and reproductive problems. The new study linked BPAF concentrations in cord plasma with both premature birth and low birth weight.
COVID-19 Incubation Period: An Update -NEJM Journal - Infection with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, appears to be highly contagious and is primarily spread by droplets. Containment efforts have emphasized quarantine during the incubation period as the most effective measure to limit spread. Because of the personal and economic toll of this measure and its implication for transmission, we need to maximize our understanding of the incubation period. These authors studied the case records of 181 patients (median age, 44.5 years; 60% male) who had visited Wuhan, the city in China where the infection was first identified (161 cases), or been in contact with an infected person before becoming symptomatic and testing positive for COVID-19 between January 4 and February 24, 2020. The investigators classified risk for undetected symptomatic infection as low (1 in 10,000), medium (1 in 1000), or high (1 in 100) and considered monitoring programs of varying length. In the resulting models, estimated median incubation time (IT) of COVID-19 was 5.1 days; mean IT was 5.5 days. For 97.5% of infected persons, symptoms appear by 11.5 days. Fewer than 2.5% are symptomatic within 2.2 days. Estimated median IT to fever was 5.7 days. Among 108 patients diagnosed outside mainland China, median IT was 5.5 days; the 73 patients diagnosed inside China had a median IT of 4.8 days. Using exposures designated as high risk and a 7-day monitoring period, the estimate for missed cases was 21.2 per 10,000. After 14 days, the estimated number of missed high-risk cases was 1 per 10,000 patients.
'Don't believe the numbers you see': Johns Hopkins professor says up to 500,000 Americans have coronavirus - According to Dr. Marty Makary, a medical professor at Johns Hopkins University, the coronavirus is something that “people need to take seriously.” “I’m concerned when I hear a neighbor or a friend say that they’re planning to go to a kid’s swim meet in three weeks or going on vacation next week,” Makary said on Yahoo Finance’s “On the Move” (video above) on Friday. “No — we’re about to experience the worst public health epidemic since polio.” In the U.S. there are over 1,600 confirmed cases, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), with 41 deaths. Makary said that the number of cases, though, is likely much higher. “Don’t believe the numbers when you see, even on our Johns Hopkins website, that 1,600 Americans have the virus,” he said. “No, that means 1,600 got the test, tested positive. There are probably 25 to 50 people who have the virus for every one person who is confirmed.” He added: “I think we have between 50,000 and half a million cases right now walking around in the United States.” Part of the reason the number of cases might be higher without people realizing it is because of the shortage of coronavirus testing kits from the CDC. Between Jan. 18 and March 12, there were 13,624 tests for COVID-19 conducted in the U.S. Meanwhile, South Korea has conducted over 100,000 tests, and the U.K. has tested nearly 25,000 people.
Coronavirus: Governor orders Ohio bars, restaurants to shut down - The Columbus Dispatch - --Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine ordered bars and restaurants to shut down to slow the spread of coronavirus. Ohio has 37 cases diagnosed so far. The governor also indicated that schools might stay closed through the school year.Gov. Mike DeWine and the state health director ordered all Ohio bars and restaurants closed by 9 p.m. Sunday.The announcement, made less than six hours before the deadline, had restaurants and bars scrambling to plan their next steps.DeWine said he decided on the shutdown after hearing from people around the state Saturday night who were concerned about crowded bars. He said he was worried that with St. Patrick’s Day coming up Tuesday, people would ignore warnings and go out to bars.The governor encouraged restaurants to offer carryout or delivery service, but he said they would not be allowed to have people congregating in the businesses. “This is a matter of life and death, and so we’re very mindful of the economic hurt. ... This is brutally tough, and my heart goes out to business owners and workers, but we have to do what we have to do to save their lives,” DeWine said.Lt. Gov Jon Husted said the governor will sign an executive order to provide unemployment benefits for people affected by COVID-19. That will include people who are self-quarantining and those whose employers are closing.The cost of these additional unemployment benefits will be “neutralized,” Husted said. He said there is “no doubt” that the administration will have to ask the legislature to strengthen Ohio’s unemployment system, but that isn’t required immediately.Husted said the decision to close bars and restaurants was a hard one. The state did not want people to stop buying food from restaurants and instead go to grocery stores because that would stress already-depleted stores. The Small Business Administration, Husted said, is also offering loans to assist businesses.
Gov. DeWine asks dentists, doctors, and veterinarians to delay elective surgeries to accommodate for Ohio coronavirus patients(WOIO) - Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine spoke on Saturday afternoon about the statewide increase in confirmed coronavirus cases and what is being done to help those impacted by the health crisis. One suggestion DeWine made, after announcing a total of 26 confirmed coronavirus cases, was directed at medical professionals across the state. The Governor is recommending that dentists, doctors, and veterinarians consider postponing non-essential surgeries in order to free up hospital beds, personal protective equipment, and medical supplies that could be of more value to individuals who test positive for coronavirus. Governor Mike DeWine @GovMikeDeWine .@DrAmyAction: Re: postponing elective surgeries There is a shortage of surgical masks. This is 1 reason why we want to limit elective procedures. We need to preserve these supplies. We must take the healthcare situation very, very seriously. #COVID19 #COVID19OhioReady The Ohio Department of Health said on Saturday that 264 persons are under investigation for a possible coronavirus diagnosis.
Mapping Ohio’s 67 confirmed cases of coronavirus - cleveland.com - The first 67 confirmed coronavirus cases in Ohio are spread across 16 counties, with a concentration in Northeast Ohio, the Ohio Department of Health reported Tuesday.Testing has stepped up considerably across the case, including at multiple hospitals in Cleveland. Seventeen people have been hospitalized, the state said.The statewide total is up from 50 on Monday, 37 the day before. It was at 26 on Saturday and 13 on Friday. The first case was confirmed on March 9. Here is how the number of confirmed cases of coronavirus in Ohio has grown in recent days. Gov. Mike DeWine and Health Director Dr. Amy Acton have repeatedly emphasized that many more people likely have the virus, some maybe with few symptoms.Those testing postive range in age from 14 to 86, with a median age of 48, Acton said. Twenty-six are females; 41 are males.A total of 333 people are under health supervision after arriving in Ohio from overseas countries with large numbers of infection. Here is the breakdown by county, according to the latest information available:
US moves nearer to shutdown; Ohio, Illinois order bars and restaurants closed...— Officials across the country curtailed elements of American life to fight the coronavirus outbreak on Sunday, with governors closing restaurants, bars, and schools and a government expert saying a 14-day national shutdown may be needed. At the same time, long airport lines for virus screenings raised doubts that the government is prepared to respond to the crisis. Parts of America already look like a ghost town, and others are about to follow as theme parks closed, Florida beaches shooed away spring breakers, Starbucks said it will accept only drive-thru and takeout orders and the governors of Ohio and Illinois ordered bars and restaurants shuttered. New York City, New Jersey and elsewhere are considering similar measures.“The time for persuasion and public appeals is over,” Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker said. “This is not a joke. No one is immune to this.”His decision came hours after Dr. Anthony Fauci, the federal government’s top infectious disease expert, said he would like to see a 14-day national shutdown imposed to prevent the virus’s spread.“I think Americans should be prepared that they are going to have to hunker down significantly more than we as a country are doing,” said Fauci, a member of the White House task force on combating the spread of coronavirus. He heads the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health.There is no indication President Donald Trump is considering such a move. The worldwide outbreak has sickened more than 156,000 people and left more than 5,800 dead, with thousands of new cases confirmed each day. The death toll in the United States climbed to 64, while infections neared 3,000. Meanwhile, harsh criticism rained on Trump and his administration Sunday from state and local officials over long lines of returning international passengers at some U.S. airports that could have turned them into coronavirus carriers as they tried to get home.
US hospitals are already starting to run out of respirator masks crucial for coronavirus protection - Hospitals around the United States are preparing to treat an influx of patients with the highly infectious new coronavirus — and many health care providers are already beginning to run short on crucial respirator masks, The New York Times reported yesterday (March 9). Several hospitals the Times spoke to said they have little more than a month's supply of respirator masks left, and that restocking the crucial masks has proven difficult as global cases of the new coronavirus, also called SARS-CoV-2, continue to climb daily. "We can’t get any. Everything’s back ordered," Dr. Marc Habert, a pediatrician in Fishkill, N.Y., whose group works from eight offices in three counties, told the Times. "I was on a phone call earlier with the local department of health and they basically said the state has supplies, but we need to show we tried to order from three separate places first." The masks, known as N95 respirator masks, are thicker and tighter fitting than normal surgical masks, blocking 95% of small airborne particles, according to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The masks are a crucial piece of personal protective equipment for health care workers tasked with treating large numbers of potential patients with COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus.The FDA and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommend that N95 masks should be used by medical professionals only, not by the general public. Global supplies of respirator masks are already dwindling after the prolonged coronavirus outbreak in China, the Times reported, and the widespread hoarding of masks by nervous citizens is exacerbating the problem.According to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), health care facilities facing a shortage of supplies should first petition their local or state public health departments, many of which carry their own emergency supplies. If the state does not have enough, state officials may ask the HHS for assistance.The federal government's Strategic National Stockpile — the nation's largest supply of emergency medical supplies, managed by the HHS — includes 12 million N95 masks and 30 million surgical masks. According to HHS estimates, that's only about 1% of the 3.5 billion masks that would be required in the U.S. in the first year if the outbreak escalates to pandemic levels
The World Needs Masks. China Makes Them — But Has Been Hoarding Them. - NYT. — As hospitals and governments hunt desperately for respirators and surgical masks to protect doctors and nurses from the coronavirus pandemic, they face a difficult reality: The world depends on China to make them, and the country is only beginning to share. China made half the world’s masks before the coronavirus emerged there, and it has expanded production nearly 12-fold since then. But it has claimed mask factory output for itself. Purchases and donations also brought China a big chunk of the world’s supply from elsewhere. Now, worries about mask supplies are rising. As the virus’s global spread escalates, governments around the world are restricting exports of protective gear, which experts say could worsen the pandemic. That has put growing pressure on China to meet the world’s needs, even as it continues to grapple with the coronavirus itself. Although government data suggests China has brought infection rates under control, epidemiologists warn that its outbreak could flare again as officials loosen travel limits and more people return to work. Peter Navarro, an adviser to President Trump on manufacturing and trade, contended on Fox Business last month that China had essentially taken over factories that make masks on behalf of American companies. Beijing, he said, had opted to “nationalize effectively 3M, our company.” In a statement, Minnesota-based 3M said most of the masks it made at its factory in Shanghai had been sold within China even before the outbreak. It declined to comment on when exports from China might resume. Tan Qunhong, the general manager of a small manufacturer of disposable masks in central China, said that she had filled the government’s purchase orders and was starting to resume exports. The Chinese government is also shipping masks abroad as part of goodwill packages. Other manufacturers say the Chinese government is still claiming all the masks that their factories in the country make. “Mask exports are still not authorized, but we are following the situation every day,” said Guillaume Laverdure, chief operating officer of Medicom, a Canadian manufacturer that makes three million masks a day at its Shanghai factory. Much as it dominates manufacturing of cars, steel, electronics and other necessities, China is essential to the world’s supply of protective medical gear. Most of what it makes are the disposable surgical masks worn by health professionals. It makes a smaller number of N95 respirator masks, which provide more filtration for doctors and nurses. Though companies say China is claiming virtually all mask output, the Chinese government said it had never issued a regulation prohibiting mask exports and was willing to work with other countries to share. China did not just stop selling masks — it also bought up much of the rest of the world’s supply. According to official data, China imported 56 million respirators and masks in the first week after the January lockdown of the city of Wuhan, where the coronavirus emerged. On Jan. 30, the last day for which data is available, China managed to import 20 million respirators and surgical masks in just 24 hours. Through February, civic-minded entrepreneurs and aid groups visited pharmacies in affluent countries and emerging markets alike, buying masks in bulk to send to China.
Why Even A Huge Medical Stockpile Will Be of Limited Use Against COVID-19 -- The U.S. government maintains an enormous stockpile of emergency medical supplies, and officials have already started dipping into it to help fight the novel coronavirus. But while having a stockpile is better than not having it, experts say, there's a limit to what a stockpile can do in this crisis."It's never going to be as big as you want, because it's just too expensive to do that," saysTara O'Toole, a former homeland security official who is now executive vice president at a nonprofit called In-Q-Tel. Almost everything about the stockpile is secret, for security reasons, although the broad outlines of its holdings are known. About $8 billion worth of vaccines, pharmaceuticals, protective gear, ventilators and other kinds of medical equipment are housed in warehouses that are strategically located around the United States. Locked, caged-off sections of the warehouses store controlled substances such as painkillers. Rows of ventilators, which can support people who are having trouble breathing, are kept charged up and ready to roll at a moment's notice. When the stockpile started, back in 1999, the goal was to get prepared for unusual, unprecedented national threats, says O'Toole, who chaired an advisory committee on the stockpile for the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. "The stockpile started out being very specialized and intended to supply drugs we would need if there were a chemical, radiological, biological or nuclear attack," she explains. That's why the stockpile contains vaccines against smallpox and anthrax, as well as antitoxins and drugs to treat radiation sickness. "In many cases, the Strategic National Stockpile is the only source for particular pharmaceuticals. And it is the only buyer for some of these pharmaceuticals," says Greg Burel, who directed the stockpile program before retiring last year. "Our Strategic National Stockpile is the envy of the world that understands these things and knows what's there."
China is now shipping coronavirus test kids and masks to the U.S. -As the number of coronavirus cases outside China passes the number of cases inside that country, Beijing is trying to recast itself from the source of the global pandemic to the world’s savior. Its latest gambit: sending testing kits and masks to the U.S. Jack Ma, the billionaire founder of the online giant Alibaba, posted two pictures of supplies being loaded onto a China Cargo Airlines flight on Monday morning.“The first shipment of masks and coronavirus test kits to the U.S. is taking off from Shanghai. All the best to our friends in America,” Ma tweeted. The tweet was Ma’s first since joining Twitter this week.The Jack Ma Foundation tweeted that the shipment contains 500,000 testing kits and 1 million masks. The supplies will be handed over to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention this week.The supplies will arrive in the U.S. as shutdowns and closures ramp upacross the country. The Trump administration continues to face criticism for its handling of the outbreak: the president’s repeatedly downplayed the severity of the virus, and the administration has failed to provide adequate tests to those who need them.The U.S. currently has 3,400 confirmed coronavirus infections and 65 deaths have been reported. “Drawing from my own country's experience, speed and accurate testing and adequate personal protective equipment for medical professionals are most effective in preventing the spread of the virus. We hope that our donation can help Americans fight against the pandemic,” the foundation said in a statement.
WHO considers ‘airborne precautions’ after study shows coronavirus can survive in air - The World Health Organization is considering “airborne precautions” for medical staff after a new study showed the coronavirus can survive in the air in some settings. The virus is transmitted through droplets, or little bits of liquid, mostly through sneezing or coughing, Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, head of WHO’s emerging diseases and zoonosis unit, told reporters during a virtual news conference on Monday. “When you do an aerosol-generating procedure like in a medical care facility, you have the possibility to what we call aerosolize these particles, which means they can stay in the air a little bit longer.” She added: “It’s very important that health-care workers take additional precautions when they’re working on patients and doing those procedures.” World health officials say the respiratory disease spreads through human-to-human contact, droplets carried through sneezing and coughing as well as germs left on inanimate objects. The coronavirus can go airborne, staying suspended in the air depending on factors such as heat and humidity, they said. Kerkhove said health officials are aware of several studies in a number of countries looking at the different environmental conditions that COVID-19 can persist. Scientists are specifically looking at how humidity, temperature and ultraviolet lighting affects the disease as well as how long it lives on different surfaces, including steel, she said. Health officials use the information to make sure WHO’s guidance is appropriate, and “so far ... we are confident that the guidance that we have is appropriate,” she added. Health officials recommend medical staff wear so-called N95 masks because they filter out about 95% of all liquid or airborne particles. “In health-care facilities, we make sure health-care workers use standard droplet precautions with the exception ... that they’re doing an aerosol-generating procedure,” she said.
Coronavirus confirmed in all 50 states and D.C., after West Virginia confirms first case - Confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus, which has rapidly spread across United States in a matter of weeks, have now been reported in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.West Virginia became the last state to confirm its first case Tuesday as local municipalities, state governments and the White House have worked to broaden testing access and implement mitigation protocols with the hope of slowing down the infection’s spread.“Our health officials came to me and said we do have our first positive in the Eastern Panhandle,” West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice (R) said in a news conference. “We knew it was coming. We’ve prepared for this, and we shouldn’t panic.”Alabama, Idaho and Montana were among the final states to report covid-19 cases.In a statement issued Wednesday evening, Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) underscored the urgent need for additional testing in the state, which he said contains the highest percentage of adults 18 and over. As of yesterday, West Virginia had conducted 84 coronavirus tests and had just 500 tests available, he added.Manchin said Stephen Hahn, commissioner of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, had committed to supplying more tests.“I am hearing from West Virginians across the state about being denied testing despite having physical symptoms,” Manchin wrote. “Medical professionals, community leaders and so many others are also reporting a shortage of the equipment they need to do their job safety.”Manchin said he had also called on Health and Human Service Secretary Alex Azar to help better equip local medical personnel.The novel coronavirus has infected more than 5,500 people and killed more than 100 in the United States since January, when the first confirmed case was reported in a Washington man who had traveled to Wuhan, China, to visit family.
Coronavirus spreads quickly and sometimes before people have symptoms, study finds- Infectious disease researchers at The University of Texas at Austin studying the novel coronavirus were able to identify how quickly the virus can spread, a factor that may help public health officials in their efforts at containment. They found that time between cases in a chain of transmission is less than a week and that more than 10% of patients are infected by somebody who has the virus but does not yet have symptoms. In the paper in press with the journal Emerging Infectious Diseases, a team of scientists from the United States, France, China and Hong Kong were able to calculate what's called the serial interval of the virus. To measure serial interval, scientists look at the time it takes for symptoms to appear in two people with the virus: the person who infects another, and the infected second person. Researchers found that the average serial interval for the novel coronavirus in China was approximately four days. This also is among the first studies to estimate the rate of asymptomatic transmission. The speed of an epidemic depends on two things -- how many people each case infects and how long it takes for infection between people to spread. The first quantity is called the reproduction number; the second is the serial interval. The short serial interval of COVID-19 means emerging outbreaks will grow quickly and could be difficult to stop, the researchers said. "Ebola, with a serial interval of several weeks, is much easier to contain than influenza, with a serial interval of only a few days. "The data suggest that this coronavirus may spread like the flu. That means we need to move quickly and aggressively to curb the emerging threat." Meyers and her team examined more than 450 infection case reports from 93 cities in China and found the strongest evidence yet that people without symptoms must be transmitting the virus, known as pre-symptomatic transmission. According to the paper, more than 1 in 10 infections were from people who had the virus but did not yet feel sick.
Undiagnosed Coronavirus Cases Are Fueling The Pandemic, Study Finds - In the United States, the confirmed number of COVID-19 cases passed the grim milestone of 5,000 on Tuesday — and the true total is probably five to 10 times higher, according to a new analysis.No one knows the actual number of cases in the US because the nation is weeks behind in widespread testing since the first known case arrived in January. The new study, published Monday in the journal Science, suggests that undiagnosed cases are a significant driver in the highly contagious and deadly pandemic, based on how the early days of the outbreak unfolded in China. In mid-January throughout China, only 14% of the people who were infected were actually diagnosed by a doctor, researchers estimated. That left 86% of cases walking around unrecognized by the health care system.These projections are based on data from before Jan. 23, when China enacted strict travel restrictions in an attempt to stem transmission. The researchers say that the US is in a similar early period of its own outbreak.“I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s more than 50,000 people who have been infected at this point in the United States,” Jeffrey Shaman, an infectious disease expert at Columbia University and senior author of the study, told BuzzFeed News. Other researchers were from Imperial College London, the University of California at Davis, the University of Hong Kong, and Tsinghua University in Beijing. Outside experts said the study further emphasizes the need for catching the milder cases that can drive an epidemic. Testing in the US has been significantly delayed due to the CDC providing glitchy lab equipment and initially setting strict criteria for who could get tested, critics say.
CDC analysis shows coronavirus poses serious risk for younger people — Early data analyzed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) shows that younger Americans are at substantial risk of experiencing serious medical problems from the coronavirus sweeping the globe. That data runs counter to some of the early messaging from public health officials in other parts of the world. A new CDC analysis of more than 2,400 cases of COVID-19 that have occurred in the United States in the last month shows that between 1 in 7 and 1 in 5 people between the ages of 20 and 44 in the sample of those who are confirmed cases require hospitalization, a level significantly higher than the hospitalization rates for influenza. The true percentage of young people who require hospitalization is likely much less, because many remain asymptomatic. Between 2 percent and 4 percent of confirmed cases among people that young are admitted to intensive care units. The fatality rate is low, only 0.1 percent to 0.2 percent. Health outcomes are much worse among those who are older and those who have underlying health conditions. The early estimates show that a fifth to a third of those between the ages of 45 and 65 who contract the disease are hospitalized. Among those over 75 years old, hospitalization estimates range from 30 percent to more than 70 percent. Among the oldest cohort, those over the age of 85, somewhere between 10 percent and a quarter of all patients die. The data show adults over the age of 65 account for 80 percent of the deaths associated with the coronavirus. But younger Americans are contracting the virus at the same rates as those who are older. The initial round of data actually found more people between the ages of 20 and 44 who landed in the hospital than those over the age of 75 who wound up in treatment, even though mortality rates were lower for the younger set. "Lots of young people are getting hospitalized, a lot more than we’re messaging, and, yes, maybe you don’t die, but living with a damaged lung or damaged organ is not a good outcome," said Prabhjot Singh, a physician and health systems expert at Mount Sinai Health System and the Icahn School of Medicine. Deborah Birx, one of the Trump administration's top experts on its coronavirus task force, said Wednesday that early data from France and Italy, both dealing with thousands of coronavirus cases, seemed to underscore the threat to younger people.
Coronavirus can persist in air for hours and on surfaces for days: study - (Reuters) - The highly contagious novel coronavirus that has exploded into a global pandemic can remain viable and infectious in droplets in the air for hours and on surfaces up to days, according to a new study that should offer guidance to help people avoid contracting the respiratory illness called COVID-19. Scientists from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the U.S. National Institutes of Health, attempted to mimic the virus deposited from an infected person onto everyday surfaces in a household or hospital setting, such as through coughing or touching objects. They used a device to dispense an aerosol that duplicated the microscopic droplets created in a cough or a sneeze. The scientists then investigated how long the virus remained infectious on these surfaces, according to the study that appeared online in the New England Journal of Medicine on Tuesday - a day in which U.S. COVID-19 cases surged past 5,200 and deaths approached 100. The tests show that when the virus is carried by the droplets released when someone coughs or sneezes, it remains viable, or able to still infect people, in aerosols for at least three hours. On plastic and stainless steel, viable virus could be detected after three days. On cardboard, the virus was not viable after 24 hours. On copper, it took 4 hours for the virus to become inactivated. In terms of half-life, the research team found that it takes about 66 minutes for half the virus particles to lose function if they are in an aerosol droplet. That means that after another hour and six minutes, three quarters of the virus particles will be essentially inactivated but 25% will still be viable. The amount of viable virus at the end of the third hour will be down to 12.5%, according to the research led by Neeltje van Doremalen of the NIAID’s Montana facility at Rocky Mountain Laboratories. On stainless steel, it takes 5 hours 38 minutes for half of the virus particles to become inactive. On plastic, the half-life is 6 hours 49 minutes, researchers found. On cardboard, the half-life was about three and a half hours, but the researchers said there was a lot of variability in those results “so we advise caution” interpreting that number. The shortest survival time was on copper, where half the virus became inactivated within 46 minutes.
Coronavirus: NY, NJ, Connecticut agree to restrict restaurants, limit events to fewer than 50 people - The governors of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut announced Monday they have agreed to jointly reduce density throughout the region, closing movie theaters, most restaurants and bars and limiting public gatherings to fewer than 50 people.The federal government has “been behind from day one on this crisis,” said New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo. “States, frankly, don’t have the capacity or the power to make up for the federal government.” He called on U.S. officials to coordinate closings across the country, saying state and local leaders have adopted a “hodge podge” of different actions.“We have agreed to a common set of rules that will pertain in all of our states, so don’t even think about going to a neighboring state because there’s going to be a different set of conditions,” Cuomo said during a joint media call with fellow Democratic Govs. Ned Lamont of Connecticut and Phil Murphy of New Jersey on the fast-spreading COVID-19 outbreak in the U.S.The states will prohibit crowds of 50 or more, including private parties. Restaurants, bars, gyms and movie theaters will need to close by 8 p.m. on Monday. Casinos, other than tribal casinos, will also need to close. Restaurants that can serve take out food will be allowed to continue doing so, Cuomo said. The rules are in effect “until further notice,” Murphy said. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Sunday urged people across the U.S. to cancel or postpone events with 50 or more attendees for the next eight weeks to try to contain the fast-moving coronavirus pandemic.On Sunday, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio said he will sign an executive order, set to take effect Tuesday, that effectively closes restaurants, bars and cafes. Over the weekend, Cuomo announced that New York City’s public school system will begin to shut down this week to help combat the spread of the new virus, which has infected 729 people throughout the state as of Sunday afternoon.Cuomo has also announced a ban on gatherings of 500 or more people across the state “for the foreseeable future.” He said the state was trying to limit the contagion by reducing “density,” or events where a large number of people gather in a close environment. Cuomo said Friday that New York was ramping up its testing, having just received federal approval to allow 28 labs in state to begin running coronavirus tests. He said at the time the state should be able to process 6,000 tests a day. The state has been able to run a total of just 3,000 tests, he said Friday.
Coronavirus live updates: NY tri-state area imposes new restrictions, Workday to give workers cash - 11:30 am Monday:
- Global cases: More than 169,387, according to Johns Hopkins University.
- Global deaths: At least 6,513, according to Johns Hopkins University.
- US cases: At least 3,774, according to Johns Hopkins University.
- US deaths: At least 69, according to Johns Hopkins University.
The governors of New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut have agreed to a common set of rules to reduce density throughout the region, closing restaurants and bars and limiting public gatherings to less than 50 people. “We have agreed to a common set of rules that will pertain in all of our states, so don’t even think about going to a neighboring state because there’s going to be a different set of conditions,” New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced Monday during a press call on the fast-spreading COVID-19 outbreak in the state. The briefing came after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Sunday urged people across the U.S. to cancel or postpone events with 50 or more attendees for the next eight weeks to try to contain the fast-moving coronavirus pandemic. Workday will pay its lower-level employees the equivalent of two-weeks pay as a cash bonus to help support them during the fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic. The move, which excludes executives at the vice president level and above in addition to “certain senior individual contributors,” is expected to add about $80 million to Workday’s first quarter and full-year 2021 expenses compared to initial guidance, the company said in a financial filing. Workday, which provides human resources software, reported 12,200 total employees as of the end of January and said it also employs contractors. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said he has yet to receive a final draft of the coronavirus relief bill that the House passed early Saturday morning. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Saturday that, while he and the House had agreed on a second legislative package to help the country as it battles the virus, the two parties had also agreed to issue a “technical correction” to the bill on Monday. “I don’t want people being surprised,” he said. “We will be doing a technical correction on Monday morning.” He said that there was language he, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., agreed on that didn’t make it into the bill.
3 family members in NJ die from coronavirus, 4 others infected - Three family members in New Jersey have died from COVID-19, with four other members hospitalized, The New York Times reported Wednesday. The matriarch of the family, 73-year-old Grace Fusco, died Wednesday without knowing that her eldest son died hours earlier or that her eldest daughter passed away the previous week, the family lawyer and spokeswoman Roseann Paradiso Fodera told the Times. Rita Fusco-Jackson, 55, of Freehold, N.J., died Friday, a day before her coronavirus test came back positive. Carmine Fusco of Bath, Pa., died Wednesday. The four hospitalized family members are also Grace Fusco's children. Three of them are in critical condition, Paradiso Fodera, a cousin of Grace Fusco, told the Times. The matriarch and four of her children were treated at CentraState Medical Center in Freehold. Almost 20 other relatives of the family have been quarantined at their homes amid the tragedy. “If they’re not on a respirator, they’re quarantined,” Paradiso Fodera said. “They can’t even mourn the way you would.” Grace Fusco, the mother of 11 and grandmother of 27, was part of a tight-knit family that regularly got together for family dinners. A person who had been in contact with a man who was the first New Jersey fatality on March 10 attended a recent family gathering, New Jersey Health Commissioner Judith M. Persichilli told the Times. Paradiso Fodera said it was a regular Tuesday dinner for the family. James Matera, the chief medical officer at CentraState Medical Center, said the hospital has worked with the state’s health commissioner and officials at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to identify how the disease spread so quickly. “I don’t know if it’s a strain thing,” he said. “I would consider these particular people to be unusual.”
De Blasio calls on Trump to deploy military to set up hospitals in New York - New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio (D) is calling on President Trump to deploy the U.S. military to New York in an effort to fight the rapidly spreading coronavirus outbreak. “President Trump has to mobilize the United States military to fully act in the coronavirus situation,” de Blasio said Wednesday on CNN’s “Anderson Cooper 360.” “I want their medical teams, which are first rate, I want their logistical support, I want their ability to get stuff from factories all over the country where they're needed most,” he added. “The only force in America that can do it effectively and quickly is the United States military, and they are being sidelined right now by Donald Trump when he should be calling them to the front. This is the front right now.” De Blasio said the military should be sent to New York, Seattle and California, the areas hit hard by the pandemic. The mayor said it's necessary for the military deployment to aid the city as its hospitals are depleted of basic and necessary equipment, including ventilators, medical masks and surgical gowns. “We’re deeply concerned about where we're going to be in a few weeks, and there's the problem: the federal government is absent in this discussion right now,” de Blasio said. “President Trump at this point is the Herbert Hoover of his generation. There's a massive national crisis going on and he is consistently late and very marginal in what he does. He's taking actions that are far, far behind the curve and aren’t addressing the core concerns.” Hospitals may run out of equipment in weeks, de Blasio said, noting the surge in cases in the city. The number of cases nearly doubled overnight and is approaching 2,000 cases in New York City alone, he added.
Trump Deploys Navy Floating Hospital To NYC Harbor As Virus Cases Soar - New York is experiencing an exponential rise in confirmed Covid-19 cases requiring hospitalization. The problem is when hospital beds and ICU level care capacity is exhausted, treatment for the most vulnerable is not seen, and that is the point when mortality rates surge. To mitigate an Italy-style crisis, President Trump is set to deploy two hospital ships, which could provide several thousand additional hospital beds to New York City's capacity, reported CNN."I have directed, as the President has mentioned, the hospital ships Mercy and Comfort to be prepared to deploy to increase the nation's medical capacity and we've also alerted a variety of field and expeditionary hospitals to be prepared to deploy as well as needed," Defense Secretary Mark Esper said at the White House on Wednesday. Pentagon Spokesman Jonathan Hoffman told reporters on Wednesday that USNS Comfort is currently undergoing maintenance in Virginia and would be ready to set sail and anchor in the New York Harbor in mid-April.WAVY’s Chopper 10 over the USNS Comfort. The Norfolk based “floating hospital” will be heading to New York City to give aid during the outbreak. It will be used for patients not diagnosed with the Coronoavirus the Navy emphasized. More info on https://t.co/C74EBoHKWb @WAVY_News pic.twitter.com/DxRcBtRCGo— Jeff Myers (@wavyphotog) March 18, 2020 Hoffman said USNS Mercy, its sister ship, will accompany the USNS Comfort, and both are being sent to New York because that is a region where the federal government believes the hospital system could soon be overwhelmed by Covid-19 patients. The vessel's personnel are trained to handle combat-related injuries and are not trained in treating infectious diseases. This suggests that the ships would be used to treat non-Covid-19 patients.
Army Deploys To New York As NYC Reports 1 Coronavirus Death Per Hour On Friday: Live Updates - For nearly a week now, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo has been begging the White House or the Pentagon to send in the Army Corp of Engineers to quickly transform existing businesses into coronavirus hospitals where patients from the impending surge can be isolated and treated. If the state doesn't quickly make up for its twin shortages of hospital beds and medical equipment, Cuomo warned, it could lead to thousands of preventable deaths. Now, a few days after President Trump and Defense Secretary Mark Esper dispatched a Navy hospital ship to New York to help with the outbreak, President Donald Trump formally approved FEMA aid to the state late Friday night after declaring New York the nation's first "major disaster area" since the start of the national outbreak. Billions of dollars in emergency funding are now available to help combat the outbreak in the state, FEMA said in a statement. "Federal funding is also available to state, tribal, and eligible local governments and certain private nonprofit organizations on a cost-sharing basis for emergency protective measures," FEMA said in a statement. President Trump's national emergency declaration earlier this month activated FEMA, and made a pot of $42 billion in disaster-relief funds available. The decision comes after New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio claimed that his city has become the epicenter of the national outbreak, as public health authorities in the city counted at least one coronavirus-linked death per hour on Friday. Between just 10 am and 6 pm, 14 people in NYC died from the virus, raising the death toll in America's largest city to 43. It was the first time NYC's daily death toll hit double-digits. NYC Health Commissioner Dr. Oxiris Barbot warned on Saturday morning that double-digit increases in deaths may become the new normal for New Yorkers, for at least a time.
Bay Area orders ‘shelter in place,’ only essential businesses open in 6 counties - SFChronicle.com - Six Bay Area counties announced a “shelter in place” order for all residents on Monday — the strictest measure of its kind yet in the continental United States — directing everyone to stay inside their homes and away from others as much as possible for the next three weeks as public health officials desperately try to curb the rapid spread of coronavirus across the region.The directive begins at 12:01 a.m. Tuesday and involves San Francisco, Santa Clara, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa and Alameda counties — a combined population of more than 6.7 million. It is to stay in place until at least April 7. Three other Bay Area counties — Sonoma, Solano and Napa — were not immediately included.The order falls just short of a full lockdown, which would forbid people from leaving their homes without explicit permission. A wide swath of businesses that do not provide “essential” services must send workers home. Among those remaining open are grocery stores, pharmacies, restaurants for delivery only and hardware stores. Most workers are ordered to stay home, with exceptions including health care workers; police, fire and other emergency responders; and utility providers such as electricians, plumbers and sanitation workers.“We were seeing a tipping point here in Santa Clara County with exponential growth of our cases,” said Dr. Sara Cody, health officer for the county, at a news conference Monday. The county has 138 cases as of Monday — an increase of 72 since Friday. “Over the weekend, I had a discussion with fellow health officers in the Bay Area and we realized that we are one region, and that what’s happening in Santa Clara County today will soon be happening in the adjacent jurisdictions. We decided collectively we need to take swift action as soon as possible to prevent further spread.“These orders were crafted with great thought and with great care,” Cody said. “They were also crafted very, very quickly.”She said residents would get more information over the coming days as to what exactly is expected of them — but the priority is to stay inside and and away from others.
Newsom- 56% Of Californians To Be Infected With COVID-19 Within Eight Weeks - California Governor Gavin Newsom says that an estimated 56% of the state's population - some 25.5 million people - will be infected with coronavirus within the next eight weeks.Newsom made the sobering claim in a Wednesday letter to President Trump asking for the US Navy's Mercy Hospital Ship to be stationed at the Port of Los Angeles until September in order to provide backup to the region's healthcare system."The acquisition of the Mercy here off the coast of the state of California would provide additional 1,000 bed capacity, provides support for pharmacists and other diagnostic equipment," said Newsom, adding "This resource will help decompress the health care delivery system to allow the Los Angeles region to ensure that it has the ability to address critical acute care needs, such as heart attacks and strokes or vehicle accidents, in addition to the rapid rise of COVID-19 cases.""We have community acquired transmission in 23 counties with an increase of 44 community acquired infections in 24 hours. We project that roughly 56 percent of our population - 25.5 million people - will be infected with the virus over an eight week period," the letter continues. A spokesperson for the governor said the projection shows why it's so critical that Californians take action to slow the spread of the disease - and those mitigation efforts aren't taken into account in those numbers. The spokesperson added that the state is deploying every resource at its disposal to meet this challenge and is continuing to ask for the federal government's assistance in this fight. -ABC 7
Colorado county issues shelter-in-place order - A county in Colorado issued a shelter-in-place order Wednesday in an effort to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. San Miguel County’s shelter in place order will be in effect until at least April 3 at the discretion of the public health director, according to the county’s announcement. As part of its mitigation plan, San Miguel officials will also test the entire county for COVID-19. The testing will be offered free of charge and will be administered by the county public health department. “We know just testing is not enough to fight this virus. If we invest in the short-term inconveniences of isolation and sheltering-in-place now, we will save lives,” Grace Franklin, the county's public health and environment director, said in a statement. The county is currently prohibiting events of more than 10 people, as well as all events at community centers. It is also ceasing activities at business facilities except for minimum basic operations and essential services. Violators of the county orders are subject to criminal and civil charges. "Our actions now seem exaggerated to some, but let me assure you all, any actions we want to take later will be severely inadequate," county medical officer Dr. Sharon Grundy added. There are no confirmed cases in the county as of Tuesday, according to county data. Across Colorado, there are 216 confirmed cases of the virus, according to the state’s data.
March 19 Update: US COVID-19 Tests per Day - Tests per day is a key number to track (along with actual cases and, sadly, deaths). But total tests were a key for South Korea slowing the spread of COVID-19. South Korea has been conducting 15,000 tests per day with about one-fifth of the US population, so the US needs to test 70,000 to 100,000 per day.The US conducted 27,450 tests in the last 24 hours. That is progress. This data is from the COVID Tracking Project. Some states could do a better job of reporting the number of tests - so this is probably low. Testing it getting better, but needs to at least triple from here.
Coronavirus leads Ohio to delay election despite judge's refusal - (Reuters) - Ohio will postpone its presidential nominating election planned for Tuesday, despite a judge’s refusal to endorse a postponement, because the public health emergency caused by the coronavirus makes it too dangerous, Governor Mike DeWine said. DeWine had asked a state court for permission to postpone the election, but after a judge denied the request he said the state’s health director would order the polls shut as part of the public health emergency caused by the virus. “During this time when we face an unprecedented public health crisis, to conduct an election tomorrow would force poll workers and voters to place themselves at an unacceptable health risk of contracting coronavirus,” DeWine said on Twitter Monday night. While he had first sought the approval of the courts to move the election, judge Richard Frye rejected the request to postpone the primary on Tuesday despite growing concerns about the coronavirus that have shut down schools, restaurants and large gatherings across the country.
119 confirmed cases of coronavirus in Ohio; 33 hospitalized --Confirmed cases, testing numbers as of March 19:
- 119 confirmed cases in Ohio in 24 counties
- 33 hospitalized
Latest updates on COVID-19 in Ohio:
- DeWine activates 300 members of Ohio National Guard to help with food distribution
- Central Ohio hospitals to restrict visitors amid COVID-19 pandemic
- Barbershops, hair and nail salons ordered to close amid coronavirus concerns
- DeWine orders closure of Bureau of Motor Vehicles locations during COVID-19 pandemic
- Mayor Ginther declares State of Emergency for Columbus
Ohio Department of Health confirms 1 death, 169 cases of COVID-19 -Confirmed cases, testing numbers as of March 20:
- 1 death (Lucas County resident)
- 169 confirmed cases in Ohio in 28 counties
- Number of counties with cases: Ashland (1), Ashtabula (1), Belmont (2), Butler (12), Clark (1), Coshocton (2), Cuyahoga (69), Darke (1), Delaware (2), Franklin (14), Geauga (1), Hamilton (7), Huron (1), Lake (3), Lorain (10), Lucas (2), Mahoning (7), Marion (1), Medina (6), Miami (1), Montgomery (1), Richland (1), Stark (6), Summit (10), Trumbull (3), Tuscarawas (1), Union (1), Warren (2)
- 39 hospitalizations
Latest updates on COVID-19 in Ohio:
- DeWine activates 300 members of Ohio National Guard to help with food distribution
- Coronavirus brings changes, concerns about social distancing at Columbus' big employers
- Central Ohio hospitals to restrict visitors amid COVID-19 pandemic
The state has nearly 120 confirmed cases of the virus, with 33 hospitalizations. The state is limiting testing to those who are hospitalized and to healthcare workers. The Ohio Health Department says people with suspected symptoms should call a medical provider first, but seek immediate help if symptoms are serious, such as difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. For most people, the virus causes only mild or moderate symptoms, such as fever and cough. For some, especially older adults and people with existing health problems, it can cause more severe illness, including pneumonia, or death. The vast majority of people recover.
D.C. cases surge, Maryland adds new restrictions as coronavirus reaches grim milestones - Maryland is escalating social-distancing measures after the state’s first covid-19-related death and the first report of a child testing positive. Scores of D.C. emergency personnel are under quarantine, with three firefighters confirmed to be infected. Virginia is easing access to health care during the pandemic and giving residents until June to pay taxes.Two weeks after the first novel coronavirus cases were reported in the Washington region, government leaders, residents and businesses are confronting a hard reality: There’s no immediate end in sight.Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) on Thursday ordered the closure of enclosed shopping malls and entertainment venues, restricted access to Baltimore-Washington International Marshall Airport and prohibited gatherings of more than 10 people. He chastised residents who are not taking the situationseriously.“Unfortunately, we are only at the beginning of this crisis,” Hogan said, citing the state’s first fatality, a Prince George’s County man. “While this is the first death in Maryland, unfortunately it will not be the last.” Disruptions to daily life are likely to stretch at least into April, experts say, with the continued spread of the virus inevitable.
U.S. confirmed cases double - The Washington Post - Global travel restrictions are dramatically ramping up amid the growing coronavirus outbreak, with U.S. officials urging Americans abroad to return home or prepare to shelter in place and the entire state of California going into effective lockdown as confirmed U.S. cases doubled in a single day.China on Friday announced for the second consecutive day that no new local infections were recorded in the country the previous day. Out of 39 infections confirmed on Thursday, all were imported from abroad, Chinese officials said, as the outbreak appears to slow in the place where it was first recorded late last year.In Italy, where the government is extending its large-scale lockdown, the death toll climbed to 3,405 on Thursday. More people have now died from the illness in Italy than in China, and morgues there are running out of space. Asian markets were mixed on Friday after U.S. stocks clawed back some ground Thursday, with the Dow closing above the 20,000 level. But uncertainty lingers about the economic toll the pandemic will take on U.S. households as restrictions upend normal business. Here are some significant developments:
- Officials say the number of cases in the United States will continue to rise sharply as more test results become available.
- India barred incoming commercial flights for a week, as more countries closed their borders to noncitizens.
- Senate Republicans introduced a $1 trillion fiscal package — the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act — which includes sending direct cash payments to many Americans.
- President Trump canceled the in-person G-7 summit scheduled for June at Camp David, due to the coronavirus pandemic, deciding instead to hold the annual meeting by videoconference.
The US has reported 195 coronavirus deaths, and more than 13,000 cases across all 50 states. Here's what we know about the US patients. - The US has reported 195 deaths from the coronavirus as of March 19. The country's case tally is more than 13,600, with patients reported in all 50 states and Washington, DC. The illness has also spread to Guam, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands. The World Health Organization declared the outbreak a pandemic on March 11, and two days later President Donald Trump declared a national emergency.Because county- and state-level health authorities are reporting the latest case counts before the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) does, Business Insider is tallying those local reports and updating this story regularly to give a comprehensive picture of where the virus is spreading in the US.The virus originated in Wuhan, China, in December. It causes a respiratory disease known as COVID-19.For the latest global case totals, death tolls, and travel information, see Business Insider's live updates here.Here's everything we know about the coronavirus in the US — in the list below, states are ordered by their number of cases.Note: This post was last updated at 7:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 19. At least 195 people have died from the coronavirus on US soil. Here are the death tolls by state:
Coronavirus Map: U.S. Cases Surpass 15,000 – NY Times -- The number of known cases of the coronavirus in the United States surged past 15,000 on Friday morning as testing expanded and the virus spread. As of Friday afternoon, at least 15,650 people across every state, plus Washington, D.C., and three U.S. territories, have tested positive for coronavirus, according to a New York Times database, and at least 202 patients with the virus have died. Where cases have been reported: (see state table and map) Note: The map shows the known locations of coronavirus cases by county. Circles are sized by the number of people there who have tested positive, which may differ from where they contracted the illness. Some people who traveled overseas were taken for treatment in California, Nebraska and Texas. Puerto Rico and the other U.S. territories are not shown. Sources: State and local health agencies, hospitals, C.D.C. Data as of 12:36 p.m. E.T., Mar. 20.More state and private labs have started running tests for the coronavirus in recent days, increasing the capacity to identify new patients after weeks of delays and test kit shortages. Officials in New York State announced more than 2,900 new cases on Friday morning alone, more than any other state has identified to date.As the United States scrambled to understand the scope of an escalating public health crisis, life in many states has come to a standstill: Governors have ordered schools and businesses to close. Gatherings, meetings and sporting events have been canceled. In some places, residents have been ordered to stay inside.As the death toll surpassed 200 on Friday, the danger that the coronavirus poses — especially to older people and those with health problems — became even more clear.At least 35 of the deaths were connected to a single nursing center in Washington, and residents of other long-term care facilities — in Kansas, Louisiana, South Carolina and at least two other centers in Washington — have also died.The outbreak looks vastly different in the United States than it did just a few weeks ago. At the start of March, with extremely limited testing underway, 70 cases had been reported in the country, most of them tied to overseas travel. Since then, new cases have been reported, first by the hundreds, now by the thousands.
"This Could Go On For Months" - Cuomo Closes All 'Nonessential' Businesses, Orders "100%" Of Workers To Stay Home: Live Updates - The morning after California laid out the most restrictive measures to combat the virus in the US, NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo on Friday laid out new measures for New York State to combat the coronavirus outbreak, imposing new restrictions like ordering "100% of the workforce" to stay home.During this time, Cuomo is order all businesses in the state that aren't deemed "essential" to close, and added that though public transit will remain open for people who need it to travel to their 'essential' jobs, and to get to places like hospitals and doctors offices and grocery stores and pharmacies, he urged New Yorkers to only take the trains if absolutely necessary.All non-essential businesses must close, Cuomo and NYC Mayor de Blasio have said that the state will find better ways to accommodate essential employees who need childcare or other things. But Cuomo threatened to fine businesses and individuals caught breaking the rules. "These are not helpful hints...they will be enforced. There will be a civil fine and mandatory closure for any business that is not in compliance. Again, your actions can affect my health, that's where we are. There is a social compact that we have...we must make society safe for everyone," Cuomo said about the executive action that he's preparing to sign.New York reported 2,950 new cases on Friday, bringing the state-wide total to 7,102 cases, with 4,408 cases in NYC. As he chided the public for not taking the outbreak seriously enough, Cuomo declared that young people saying they can't get the virus is "simply wrong," claiming that 25% of cases are people ages 20-44. During the press conference, Cuomo confirmed that the state had reached the capacity to test 10,000 New Yorkers a day, becoming perhaps the only state in the country to overshoot on its daily testing target of 6k tests. Along with these new 'dramatic actions', Cuomo announced more confirmed cases and deaths.
4,000 National Guard Troops Deployed Across Country To Combat COVID-19 — Defense Secretary Mark Esper says more than 4,000 National Guard reservists have been deployed in 31 states to help battle the coronavirus. Esper told Fox News that the Army Corps of Engineers were in New York three days ago working to help identify sites, such as college dorms or hotels, that it could renovate for hospital beds. Esper says the military also is preparing Army units to assemble field hospitals. Esper, who has spoken with New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, says the Comfort hospital ship will be in New York. He says the Mercy hospital ship will be deployed early next week on the West Coast. He adds 67 U.S. service members are infected with coronavirus and that 1,500 Americans are quarantined on four U.S. bases in an effort to lighten the burden on the nation’s civilian medical facilities.
'Tens of thousands' of National Guard troops could be activated for coronavirus response -- Tens of thousands of National Guard troops could be activated in states across the country in the next several weeks to help deal with the coronavirus pandemic, the head of the National Guard said Thursday."It's hard to tell what the exact requirement will be, but I'm expecting tens of thousands to be used inside the states as this grows," National Guard Bureau Chief Gen. Joseph Lengyel told reporters at the Pentagon."I think that this could quickly blossom in the next couple of weeks as governors and states determine their needs and ways to use their National Guards." All 54 states, territories and the District of Columbia have declared a state of emergency in response to the COVID-19 outbreak. As of Thursday, governors in 27 states have activated a total 2,050 Guardsmen. Lengyel said the bureau anticipates that number will go up "relatively quickly, in fact, doubling by this weekend." Asked if the White House could federalize the Guard to respond to the illness, Lengyel said that President Trump could do so if desired but that such a move "would not make sense in this situation.""Every state has a different way to deal with disasters. If you were to federalize [the Guard], you would lose that ability." He added: "There's no plans that I'm aware of to take the National Guards in the states and put them in a federal status. They're much better used in a state status under the command and control of the governors."
Coronavirus likely to keep Americans home for several weeks: Dr. Fauci -- A doctor on the front lines of battling the coronavirus in the US said the pandemic will likely keep Americans at home for several weeks as it runs its course.In a “Today” show interview Friday morning, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said Americans shouldn’t expect to go back to their daily routines for quite a while.“If you look at the trajectory of the curves of outbreaks in other areas, it’s at least going to be several weeks,” Fauci said. “I cannot see that all of a sudden next week or two weeks from now, it’s going to be over. I don’t think there’s a chance of that — I think it’s going to be several weeks.” But Fauci noted that the availability of COVID-19 testing in the country is now on the upswing.“Clearly more needs to be done, but we are rapidly getting to the point where we will have multiple tests available out there for virtually everyone early on,” he said on the program. “As I’ve said, it wasn’t as much as it should have been. But now we’re very much in the right direction, flooding the system with it … It’s not a perfect system yet, but we’re getting there very rapidly.” By Friday morning, more than 14,000 COVID-19 cases had been reported in the US, and just over 200 deaths.
US coronavirus death toll hits 300 as more states urge residents to stay home - More than 300 people infected with the novel coronavirus have died in the United States as states ramp up restrictions aimed at slowing the spread of the disease. As of Saturday, 302 people have died. The highest number of deaths were in Washington at 94, followed by 53 deaths in New York, according to CNN's tally. The number of cases continued rising, surpassing 23,000 nationwide, with almost half of the cases reported in New York state. There were 10,356 confirmed cases across the state, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said at a news conference. A majority of those cases, 54%, were individuals between the ages of 18 and 49. "You're not Superman and you're not Superwoman," the governor said, addressing younger people who have not complied with social distancing. "You can get this virus and you can transfer the virus and you can wind up hurting someone who you love." New York is among a handful of states that have urged nonessential workers to stay home in an effort to prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus, alleviate stress on the health-care system and preserve dwindling medical supplies. The most recent state to enact such a measure was New Jersey, where Gov. Phil Murphy announced a statewide "stay at home" order, closing nonessential retail businesses and asking residents to stay home until further notice. The order, effective at 9 p.m. ET Saturday, also prohibits gatherings and asks individuals to practice social distancing. "We know the virus spreads through person-to person contact," the governor said in a news release, "and the best way to prevent further exposure is to limit our public interactions to only the most essential purposes." Similar measures have been announced in California, Illinois and Connecticut, directing nonessential workers to stay home, though each state provides for certain exceptions, such as visiting grocery stories, pharmacies or healthcare facilities, among others. Those restrictions followed similar directives issued by state and local leaders urging residents to stay put and limiting bars and restaurants to take-out and delivery services. "Every state will head this way," CNN national security analyst Juliette Kayyem said Friday. "People need to prepare themselves that this gets harder before this gets easier."
Yes, Young People Are Falling Seriously Ill From Covid-19 - New evidence from Europe and the U.S. suggests that younger adults aren’t as impervious to the novel coronavirus that’s circulating worldwide as originally thought. Despite initial data from China that showed elderly people and those with other health conditions were most vulnerable, young people — from twenty-somethings to those in their early forties — are falling seriously ill. Many require intensive care, according to reports from Italy and France. The risk is particularly dire for those with ailments that haven’t yet been diagnosed. “It may have been that the millennial generation, our largest generation, our future generation that will carry us through for the next multiple decades, here may be a disproportional number of infections among that group,” Deborah Birx, the White House coronavirus response coordinator, said in a press conference on Wednesday, citing the reports. relates to Yes, Young People Are Falling Seriously Ill From Covid-19 The data bears out that concern. In Italy, the hardest hit country in Europe, almost a quarter of the nearly 28,000 coronavirus patients are between the ages of 19 and 50, according to data website Statista. Similar trends have been seen in the U.S. Among nearly 2,500 of the first coronavirus cases in the U.S., 705 were aged 20 to 44, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Between 15% and 20% eventually ended up in the hospital, including as many as 4% who needed intensive care. Few died. One of those younger adults is Clement Chow, an assistant professor of genetics at the University of Utah. "I’m young and not high risk, yet I am in the ICU with a very severe case,” Chow said in a March 15 tweet. "We really don’t know much about this virus." According to his Twitter posts, Chow had a low-grade fever for a few days and then a bad cough that led to respiratory failure. It turned out to be the coronavirus. He ended up on high flow oxygen in the ICU. When he arrived last Thursday, he was the first patient there. "Now there are many more," he tweeted.
Cops investigating 'disturbing trend' of teens coughing on produce -- A group of teenagers filmed themselves coughing on produce at a Virginia grocery store and then posted the sick stunt to social media — a “disturbing trend”amid the coronavirus pandemic.“We have learned that this appears to be a disturbing trend on social media across the country, and we ask for help from parents to discourage this behavior immediately,” Purcellville police said in a Facebook post Thursday.“We are asking for parental assistance in monitoring your teenagers’ activities, as well as their social media posts to avoid the increase of any further such incidents.”The cops didn’t cite other specific incidents but urged parents to “talk with your children and explain to them why such behavior is wrong.” The grocery store, which was not mentioned by name, removed the befouled fruits and veggies. The teens remain at large.
Army enters Paris as Macron announces coronavirus lockdown in France - Last night, military vehicles entered Paris as President Emmanuel Macron announced in a televised address that the French population would be placed under confinement amid the coronavirus pandemic. The total number of SARS-CoV-2 cases in France grew by 1,210 yesterday to 6,663, with 148 deaths. For weeks, French political authorities have downplayed the dangers posed by the coronavirus pandemic, and taken disjoined, belated and insufficient actions, wasting precious time for combating the disease. Until last Thursday, the government’s main concern was to reassure the financial markets that all economic activity would continue as usual. “Beginning tomorrow at midday, going for a walk and meeting friends in the park or on the street, will no longer be possible,” Macron said. “It is a matter of limiting all contacts outside the house to a minimum. On all French territories, overseas and here, only necessary travel will be allowed: To go shopping, while maintaining a one-meter separation from others, without holding hands, without hugging. Obviously, this includes travel to work, when working from home is not possible.” Macron did not place any restrictions on the operations of large non-essential companies, except vaguely referring to requirements that employers put in place safe conditions. After the speech by Macron, Interior Minister Christophe Castaner announced that 100,000 police and gendarmes would be deployed to the streets to maintain the quarantine. To leave their homes, people must carry forms that can be downloaded from the interior ministry website to certify that they are going out for authorized reasons: shopping, medical care, helping a dependent person, or work. Police will give 38-euro fines, soon to be raised to 135 euros, for violations. The lock-down is to last 15 days but will be renewable by Macron’s order. Given that the incubation period of the disease lasts 14 days, it is likely that the number of cases will rise rapidly throughout the first period of containment; the health services would then need to renew the containment in order to identify and diagnose all the patients. As in Italy and Spain, the French army is being mobilized. It will build a field hospital to treat coronavirus patients in the east of the country, which has been particularly affected. As Macron spoke, images were published on social media showing armored personnel tanks and other military vehicles arriving in Paris. It remains unclear what measures are being taken to support workers and small business by these major restrictions on economic activity. Macron claimed that 300 billion euros would be used to assist businesses, including by exempting them from rent and payroll taxes that fund social spending. Macron also pledged that “partial unemployment” payments would be expanded to cover all workers who lose their job due to the pandemic at 84 percent of their net wages, according to government statements to the press. Nor did Macron explain why Europe is not mobilizing hundreds of billions of euros to support the public healthcare system in the treatment of the sick, while Italy, devastated by the virus, desperately needs international support. In contrast, the European central bank has already announced the provision of 120 billion euros directly to the financial markets.
Spain deploys army to impose coronavirus lockdown - The Spanish army is being deployed in major cities under the state of alarm as deaths linked to coronavirus have gone up from 136 to 329 in the past 48 hours. Spain has registered more than 9,191 infections, according to the latest data from the Ministry of Health, becoming the second country after Italy with most newly registered infections. The army has deployed 1,100 soldiers from the Military Emergency Unit (UME) in 13 provinces throughout Spain. Army personnel have also been dispatched to clean up swathes of Madrid, which health officials fear may have been infected by large crowds, and to the borders. Madrid has closed its borders with France and Portugal. According to the state of alarm, soldiers will be considered “representatives of authority” which implies that they may issue orders to civilians and that those who fail to comply with them or resist them may be accused of disobedience or resistance to authority. The Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE)-Podemos government will deploy the army in the streets for control and surveillance, to ensure compliance with the regulations limiting freedom of movement under confinement. The government has also taken control of state, regional and local police, including that of Catalonia and the Basque Country, while private security officers will be under the command of the police. Anyone violating “non-compliance or resistance to the orders of the authority” faces fines of €600 to €30,000, according to the Citizen Security Law. They also face up to four years in prison. The same law that the PSOE and Podemos promised to remove once in power, is now being implemented under a state of alarm. From Monday on, millions of people will be confined to their homes for at least two weeks. The government has already said it will extend the state of alarm beyond the 15 days mandated by law. Under the state of alarm, people can only go to specific shops individually, and stay in them for the time “strictly necessary”, avoiding crowds and stay at least one meter away from other people. Only food, beverage, products and essential goods establishments will remain open such as pharmacies, medical supply stores, opticians, shops for orthopaedic and hygienic products, press, fuel and pet food stores. Millions of other workers who cannot work from home are being forced to go to their workplaces, travelling in unhygienic conditions and working in an unsafe environment. These are not health workers, nurses, pharmacists or supermarket staff, but factory and construction workers whose companies have decided not to stop production during the following 15 days.
Special Report: 'All is well'. In Italy, triage and lies for virus patients - (Reuters) - The fight against death pauses every day at 1 p.m. At that time, doctors in the intensive care unit of Policlinico San Donato phone relatives of the unit’s 25 critically-ill coronavirus patients, all of whom are sedated and have tubes down their throats to breathe, to update the families. Lunchtime used to be for visiting hours at this Milan hospital. But now, as the country grapples with a coronavirus outbreak that has killed more than 2,000 people, no visitors are allowed in. And no one in Italy leaves their homes anymore. When the doctors make the calls, they try not to give false hope: They know that one out of two patients in intensive care with the disease caused by the virus is likely to die. As the COVID-19 epidemic expands and the disease progresses, these beds are in increasing demand, especially because of the breathing problems the illness can bring. Every time a bed comes free, two anaesthesiologists consult with a specialist in resuscitation and an internal medicine physician to decide who will occupy it. Age and pre-existing medical conditions are important factors. So is having a family. “We have to take into account whether older patients have families who can take care of them once they leave the ICU, because they will need help,” says Marco Resta, deputy head of Policlinico San Donato’s Intensive Care Unit. Even if there is no chance, he says, you have to “look a patient in the face and say, ‘All is well.’ And this lie destroys you.” The most devastating medical crisis in Italy since World War Two is forcing doctors, patients and their families to make decisions that Resta, a former military doctor, said he has not experienced even in war. As of Monday, 2,158 people had died and 27,980 been infected by coronavirus in Italy – the second highest number of reported cases and deaths in the world behind China. Resta says that 50% of those with COVID-19 who are accepted into intensive care units in Italy are dying, compared with a usual mortality rate of 12% to 16% in such units nationwide.
Coronavirus live news: Italy deaths up by 475, biggest jump anywhere in a single day - The coronavirus death toll in Italy has increased by 475, the highest number so far recorded any country in a single day, according to the latest figures from the Civil Protection Agency. In total the death toll from the virus in the country, the worst affected in Europe by the outbreak, has now reached 2,978 - an increase of 19%, Reuters reported. The total number of cases in Italy, the European country hardest hit by the virus, rose to 35,713 from a previous 31,506, up 13.35% Of those originally infected, 4,025 had fully recovered compared to 2,941 the day before. Some 2,257 people were in intensive care against a previous 2,060.The coronavirus death toll in the UK has reached 104 after NHS England said a further 32 people had died in England after testing positive. This brings the total number of confirmed reported deaths in England to 99. The patients were aged between 59 and 94 years old and had underlying health conditions.Boris Johnson has announced that UK schools will close, after days of pressure and the announcement of the closure of schools in Wales and Scotland earlier today. The prime minister said there is a need to apply further pressure on the upward curve of the disease. He refused to say how long he thought closures would last. Baltic states have deployed ships, a train and a plane to repatriate hundreds of citizens stuck at the border between Germany and Poland after Warsaw banned foreign nationals over the coronavirus, the Agence France-Presse (AFP) news agency reports. A ship from Germany docked at the Lithuanian port of Klaipeda Wednesday, hours after a train arrived in the central city of Kaunas, said Aldona Griniene; a spokeswoman for the nation’s transport ministry. Vilnius also sent a military transport plane to airlift dozens of people from Germany who were unable to cross into Poland earlier this week. More ships are scheduled in the coming days, AFP reports.
Italy coronavirus: country surpasses China in number of coronavirus deaths – CNN - Italy has just surpassed China for the most number of deaths related to coronavirus, making it the world's deadliest center of the outbreak. The number of deaths in Italy reached 3,405 on Thursday, the Italian Civil Protection Agency said at a news conference -- 156 more than China's toll, which, according to Johns Hopkins University, stands at 3,249. The total number of cases in Italy rose to 41,035 with 5,322 new cases, officials added. The grim figure comes hours after China marked a major milestone in the battle to limit the spread, reporting no new locally transmitted coronavirus cases for the first time since the pandemic began.As cases ratcheted up, Italy imposed nationwide restrictions similar to those seen in China -- placing more than 60 million people under lockdown.Italy's world-class health system has been pushed to the brink amid the outbreak, especially in the country's north, which has seen the highest concentration of cases. People are being treated in field hospitals and lined up in corridors inside its straining public hospitals. Doctors and nurses are being infected, due to a lack of adequate protection.Italian authorities are considering lengthening school closures beyond April 3, amid rumors of the lockdown also being extended."I think we are going toward an extension," Italian Education minister Lucia Azzolina said Thursday, adding that schools would reopen once there is "certainty of absolute safety."Corriere della Sera quoted Thursday Italian PM Giuseppe Conte as saying "it is clear" the measures to tackle the outbreak, "both the one that has closed a lot of the country's businesses and individual activities, and the one that concerns the school, can only be extended to the deadline." The Prime Minister's spokesperson told CNN no official decision had yet been taken.
Coronavirus: Record 9,600 cited for breaking lockdown on Thursday - English - Rome, March 20 - A record daily number of 9,600 people were cited Thursday for breaking coronavirus lockdown rules, the interior ministry said Friday. Some 200,842 people were checked and 9,407 cited for being out and about without good reason while 99,806 shops were controlled with 205 operators cited and 21 shops closed down. The number of people controlled from March 11 to 19 thus rose to 1,427,011, with 61,425 cited; 743,532 shops were controlled and 1,973 operators cited.
"Worse Than War": Italian Army Convoy Removes Coffins From Overwhelmed Town - Reuters has confirmed widely circulating which shows a deeply disturbing apocalyptic and dystopian scene of a large convoy of military trucks removing bodies from a town in northern Italy which has been devastated by coronavirus. Local government and morgue facilities in the town of Bergamo, northeast of Milan, have been overwhelmed by the number of cases and deaths."Italy ordered the army to move bodies from a northern town at the center of the coronavirus outbreak where funeral services have been overwhelmed as the government prepared to prolong emergency lockdown measures across the country," Reuters reports. I was sent this video from Bergamo, Italy. The military has been asked to transport dead bodies and coffins because there are no more spaces in the crematoriums or the mortuaries. #COVID19 pic.twitter.com/PGVuuqxEoh — Alessandra (@alessabocchi) March 18, 2020The local newspaper Eco di Bergamo was among the first media outlets to publish the footage, which also went viral on social media. Some 60 coffins were transported to crematoria outside the town on Wednesday night alone, the Italian newspaper reports: Army vehicles brought numerous coffins, about sixty, from the cemetery of Bergamo to the crematoria of other regions where there are municipalities that have made themselves available to accept them.
Coronavirus live updates: global cases top quarter of a million, as Italy sees biggest daily rise in deaths - Italy reported a record 627 new deaths from the novel coronavirus, taking its overall toll past 4,000 as the pandemic gathered pace despite government efforts to halt its spread. The total number of deaths was 4,032, with the number of infections reaching 47,021. Italy’s previous one-day record death toll was 475 on Wednesday. The nation of 60 million now accounts for 36.6% of the world’s coronavirus deaths. Italy has seen more than 1,500 deaths from Covid-19 in the past three days alone. Its current daily death rate is higher than that officially reported by China at the peak of its outbreak around Wuhan’s Hubei province.Summary: the latest global updates
- There have now been at least 10,316 deaths from coronavirussince it emerged and more than half of those deaths (5,168) have been in Europe, according to an AFP tally based on official sources.
- More than a quarter of a million cases have been detected in 161 countries and territories around the world.
- Among the worst-affected countries is Iran with 1,433 deaths and 19,644 cases, Spain, with 1,002 deaths and 19,980 cases, France with 372 deaths and 10,995 cases, and the United States with 205 deaths and 14,250 cases.
- For a second consecutive day China has reports no new domestic cases. But it is now worried about a second wave of infections coming from abroad and on Friday the health commission reports 39 more imported cases.
- International Olympic Committee president Thomas Bach says it is “premature” to postpone the Tokyo Games planned for July-August, but admits the body is “considering different scenarios”.
- Pharmaceutical industry executives say they expect it will take 12 to 18 months to roll out a vaccine and jointly pledge to make it available worldwide based on need.
- The Canada-US border is expected to be closed by Saturday for non-essential travel. The same measure is being considered for the US-Mexico border.
Military to enforce coronavirus lockdown in Italy - Soldiers are being brought in to enforce a lockdown in Italy as the country struggles to contain the exploding coronavirus outbreak within its borders. The country is the hardest hit in Europe and has experienced the most coronavirus-related deaths out of any country in the world. The federal and local governments have been slammed with criticism over what some say are insufficient efforts to curb the spread of the illness. "(The request to use the army) has been accepted ... and 114 soldiers will be on the ground throughout Lombardy ... it is still too little, but it is positive," Attilio Fontana, the president of the Lombardy region, said at a press conference Friday, according to a translation by CNN. "Unfortunately we are not seeing a change of trend in the numbers, which are rising." Soldiers have already been stationed in several Italian cities, but have been ordered simply to ensure general security rather than enforce government orders. The news comes as Italy reported its largest one-day coronavirus death toll Friday, with 627 people dying in a 24-hour span. More than 47,000 people have been infected with the coronavirus in Italy, and more than 4,000 have died.
Italy's coronavirus deaths spike by nearly 800 in one day - Italy’s coronavirus death toll spiraled by 793 in 24 hours Saturday, just two days after the country surpassed China’s total fatalities.Italy has now registered 4,825 deaths, with more than 53,000 people infected. China’s death toll was 3,255 with more than 81,000 people infected since the pandemic began earlier this yearThe hardest hit region is the province of Lombardy in the northern part of the country, with 3,095 deaths and more than 25,000 people infected, according to government statistics.Italy was among the first countries in Europe to institute strict measures on travel and quarantine, yet police reported more than 70,000 violations since measures were introduced March 11. On Friday alone there were more than 10,000 quarantine violations registered by Italian police.
Coronavirus in Italy: The elderly are being left to die alone during crisis - The death toll from hard-hit northern Italy has become so dramatic that Italian officials have called in more soldiers to enforce the lockdown. But even they can’t do anything to help the increasing numbers of elderly victims dying alone — and medical staff who are getting sick themselves.In Italy, more than 4,000 people, the majority of them over 70, have died. Chinese medical experts aiding Italian doctors say the restrictions imposed by the government haven’t been enough to stem the rising tide of deaths.Nurses said the situation in the Lombardy area is so dire that the dead are no longer even being counted. “We’re working in a state of very high stress and tension,” Daniela Confalonieri, a nurse in Milan told Reuters. “We can’t contain the situation, there’s a high level of contagion. It’s unimaginable.”“We are at the end of our strength. The staff are beginning to get sick,” Romano Paolucci, a doctor in the Lombardy city of Cremona, told Reuters. Paolucci said the saddest thing about the coronavirus crisis is that many elderly victims cannot be visited by their relatives “and often die on their own.”
Coronavirus Outbreak: United Kingdom’s Response an Outlier --It is absolutely baffling. Last Tuesday, with lockdowns spreading throughout the world as the extent of the threat posed by COVID-19 became clear, videos circulated of tens of thousands of people at a Stereophonics gig in Cardiff, Wales, jumping up and down, singing along to their favorite songs.France, Belgium, and Ireland had all canceled sporting events. English soccer authorities would eventually follow suit, suspending the Premier League by themselves. But the U.K. government had not banned — and, as of now, still only discourages — mass gatherings. Many are left wondering: What does the British government know that the rest of the world doesn’t? How can its approach be so different from that of other countries’ governments? On Friday, Britain’s chief scientific adviser, Patrick Vallance, said that 40 million people would need to catch the coronavirus to build up “herd immunity.” He said that the government’s approach could help “reduce the peak of the epidemic, pull it down, and broaden it” while protecting the elderly and vulnerable. “If you suppress something very, very hard, when you release those measures it bounces back, and it bounces back at the wrong time,” he told the BBC. This suggested that the government considered mass infection to be inevitable.Jenny Harries, England’s deputy chief medical officer, emphasized the continued importance of proper handwashing and other hygienic measures. The country’s chief medical officer, Professor Chris Whitty, said measures to tackle the spread of the disease would need to be in place for a “prolonged period,” and thus the government was introducing them more gradually so they could be sustained. Whitty also confirmed that the National Health Service would no longer test those with mild symptoms, reserving tests for those who present at hospitals with respiratory problems. This was in contradiction with the World Health Organization’s advice to keep testing.On Saturday, Britons over 70 were told to stay in strict isolation in their homes until July, in a “wartime-style” mobilization effort that will also see the requisitioning of hotels and other buildings as temporary hospitals and the emergency manufacturing of respirators for the critically ill.
UK: NHS anticipates year-long coronavirus crisis and 8 million hospitalised - A leaked document by Public Health England (PHE) for senior National Health Service (NHS) doctors and officials has given the lie to all previous official discussions of the gravity of the Covid-19 pandemic and its impact. The PHE expects that the UK’s coronavirus epidemic will last a year and that up to 7.9 million people will require hospitalisation in this time. The number of cases is forecast to increase rapidly over the next 10 to 14 weeks, reaching a roughly one-month peak from the end of May to mid-June. A 10-week decline in cases and deaths is expected to follow, falling to a relatively low level during the summer months. The authors of the report are concerned that the virus could then resurge in autumn and winter. According to the document, obtained by Britain’s Guardian newspaper, “As many as 80 percent of the population are expected to be infected with Covid-19 in the next 12 months, and up to 15 percent (7.9 million people) may require hospitalisation.” Assuming a fatality rate of just 1 percent, the infection of over 50 million people would mean 531,100 deaths. Even by Chief Medical Officer Professor Chris Whitty’s estimate of 0.6 percent, the death toll would be over 318,000. But the global fatality rate is currently around 3.4 percent. This staggering assessment is yet another indictment of the government’s laissez-faire approach to the pandemic and their worthless assurances that services will be able to cope. The UK, along with much of the rest of the world, faces a prolonged social emergency which will affect the lives of millions. Over the weekend, a new-born baby in London tested positive for coronavirus. Italian doctors are reporting that a new wave of younger patients is now being hospitalised. Dr. Luca Lorini, head of anaesthesia and intensive care at a northern Italian hospital, said, “The type of patient is changing. They are a bit younger, between 40 to 45 years old. People are arriving who got ill six or seven days ago and treated themselves at home, and then their conditions became more and more critical.” The PHE document is explicit in its fear that the overstretched NHS and other social services will be unable to cope. Work considered vital—“in essential services and critical infrastructure” such as the NHS, social care, policing, transport and the fire brigade—will not be able to function normally. The document warns, “it is estimated that at least 10 percent of people in the UK will have a cough at any one time during the months of peak Covid-19 activity,” meaning they would have to self-isolate for at least seven days under the government’s guidelines. This equates to a shortfall of half a million vital workers. PHE admit that the health service cannot come close to testing everyone with suspected symptoms for the virus, including NHS staff. Only the very seriously ill in hospital or those in prisons or care homes where the virus has already been detected will be tested.
Study: Coronavirus Outbreak Could Get Very Bad and Last a Very Long Time - The COVID-19 Response Team at Imperial College London has released the results of some new simulations for the U.S. and U.K. predicting how different efforts to fight the disease might pan out. These types of exercises involve strong assumptions and will inevitably be wrong to some extent. But even with that caveat in mind, the numbers are frightening.Basically, we can have two different goals here. The less disruptive one, “mitigation,” aims to slow the spread of the virus so that it doesn’t overwhelm our ability to treat severe cases. (This is often called “flattening the curve.”) The more aggressive approach, “suppression,” aims to squelch the outbreak entirely.Here’s a chart showing the simulated effect of some mitigation strategies, such as isolating people who are diagnosed and closing schools. (This simulation is for Great Britain, but the situation isn’t much better in the U.S.) These measures are far better than nothing; they manage to spread out the load on hospitals’ critical-care capacity, and they could reduce deaths by half. But hospital capacity is still overwhelmed many times over. That’s not good, so what about the more forceful approaches taken in China and South Korea, which require population-wide social distancing? The good news is that this works, as we’ve seen in those places. The bad news is that it works only so long as it’s in effect, at least according to these simulations. Here’s one for the U.S. where the efforts are lifted after five months: Importantly, though, these are not the only suppression measures that countries might try. As the report notes, “as case numbers fall, it becomes more feasible to adopt intensive testing, contact tracing and quarantine measures akin to the strategies being employed in South Korea today.” It might also be possible to tighten and relax restrictions repeatedly, or tighten them in some places but not others, as needed, which would lessen the total amount of time people spend under harsh social-distancing rules. And again, this is just a simulation that involves tons of guesswork. But regardless, the upshot here is that we could be actively working to suppress COVID-19 at great financial and social cost — or paying the price in dead bodies for our failure to do so — until a vaccine becomes available. Oh, and that will be about 12 to 18 months.
Coronavirus could lead to collapse of German healthcare system as early as May - The coronavirus (SARS CoV2) is spreading rapidly in Germany. The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) reported on Sunday evening that 4,838 people have been infected, an increase of over 1,040 from Saturday and almost a tripling from the approximately 1,600 total cases recorded by Wednesday. Thus far, the deaths of nine people have been linked to the virus. Professor Christian Drosten, a virologist at Berlin’s Charité hospital, warned Monday of an “extremely serious situation.” He added, “We must assume that we are rushing into the midst of an epidemic,” and urged swift public action and radical measures. By contrast, the federal government in Berlin has not shifted from its fatalistic attitude. At lunchtime on Thursday, federal Education Minister Anja Karliczek (Christian Democrats) claimed that a nationwide closing of schools was not being considered. A conference of education ministers from Germany’s 16 federal states on Thursday afternoon concluded with no decision being taken, with participants merely agreeing that closing schools and nurseries would be “possible.” Over the course of the weekend most states have announced the shutdown schools and kindergartens in the next days. On Wednesday, Chancellor Angela Merkel stated bluntly that one had to expect that between 60 and 70 percent of the population would contract coronavirus. Her priority is to avoid the healthcare system being “overwhelmed.” According to Merkel, the key issue is “to keep economic life going to some extent.” Just this week, the World Health Organisation declared COVID-19 to be a pandemic. The highly contagious coronavirus is spreading rapidly across every continent. Around the world, over 130,000 people have been infected, and the death toll has surpassed 5,000. The number of cases in Germany is doubling every four to five days. If this trend continues at the same pace, Germany could have 9 million cases by May. Assuming a fatality rate in the range of 0.5-5 percent, anywhere from 45,000 to 450,000 people would die. These were the case numbers first projected Thursday by the Süddeutsche Zeitung. In its report, “The power of the big number,” the newspaper predicted that by mid-May at the latest, some 1.2 million people would be infected. Already by mid-April, there would be a shortage of hospital beds to treat the sick. The article stated, “In the majority of cases, the illness takes a harmless course. But roughly one in five illnesses takes a more serious c
Anti-inflammatories may aggravate Covid-19, France advises - French authorities have warned that widely used over-the-counter anti-inflammatory drugs may worsen the coronavirus. The country’s health minister, Olivier Véran, who is a qualified doctor and neurologist, tweeted on Saturday: “The taking of anti-inflammatories [ibuprofen, cortisone … ] [aspirin] could be a factor in aggravating the infection. In case of fever, take paracetamol (acetaminophen) If you are already taking anti-inflammatory drugs, ask your doctor’s advice.” Health officials point out that anti-inflammatory drugs are known to be a risk for those with infectious illnesses because they tend to diminish the response of the body’s immune system. The health ministry added that patients should choose paracetamol because “it will reduce the fever without counterattacking the inflammation”. French patients have been forced to consult pharmacies since mid-January if they want to buy popular painkillers, including ibuprofen, paracetamol and aspirin, to be reminded of the risks. Jean-Louis Montastruc, the head of pharmacology at Toulouse hospital, told RTL radio: “Anti-inflammatory drugs increase the risk of complications when there is a fever or infection.”
In France, more than half of coronavirus patients in intensive care are under 60, suggesting it's not just the elderly at risk - More than half of France's coronavirus patients in intensive care are under 60, the country's top health official said on Saturday. According to CNN, Jerome Salomon, the director-general for health, said, "We have serious cases also amid adults, and let me remind you that more than 50% of people in intensive care are under 60." Salomon did not give a detailed breakdown of the intensive-care figures, so it's unclear how many are significantly younger than 60. In Italy, which has one of the world's oldest populations, the average age of people who have died from the virus is 81, Business Insider's Rosie Perper reported last week. A study published in February by China's Center for Disease Control and Prevention also found that older people were more seriously affected, Business Insider's Aria Bendix reported.
Health official warns that 150,000 Australians could die in coronavirus pandemic - After reprehensively denying the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic for weeks, Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s government yesterday admitted, via a senior health official, that up to 150,000 Australians could die from the coronavirus under a worst-case scenario.Deputy Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly told a media conference the number of infections would range from 20 percent to 60 percent of the population. “The death rate is around 1 percent. You can do the maths,” he declared. In fact, as in other supposedly “developed” countries, the mortality rate could be much higher. Italy’s rate exceeds 5 percent. But even on a 1 percent rate, 15 million people would get the coronavirus and 150,000 would die. On the “best-case” scenario that Kelly outlined, that of a 20 percent infection rate, about 50,000 people out of 5 million infected with COVID-19 would die. A “moderate” scenario of 10 million infections—40 percent of the population—would mean 100,000 dead. What Kelly did not say is that many of these people would die as a direct result of the failure of Australia’s governments, both federal and state. They have refused to take the necessary action soon enough to stem the spread of the disease, and to allocate the funding and resources urgently needed to test people and identify, isolate and treat the victims. The federal Liberal-National Coalition government and the various state and territory governments—the majority Labor Party-led—did not establish a nation-wide system for widespread testing, despite the World Health Organisation’s January 30 classification of the coronavirus as a “global health emergency.” Up until last weekend, Morrison was still encouraging people to shake hands, go about life as “normal” and even attend football games. These were not just mistakes. Every public relations message and government decision has been based on trying to protect corporate profits, not the lives and health of the population.As a result, the official number of coronavirus cases in Australia appears to be almost doubling every three days, following the same deadly exponential pattern seen in Italy, and taking hold across Europe, including the UK, the United States and internationally. The first coronavirus case in Australia was confirmed nearly two months ago, on January 25. By March 12, the country had 159 cases. As of this morning, the total had exceeded 450 confirmed cases, with five deaths.
Coronavirus live updates: China reports 13 new cases, Taiwan to bar entry to most foreigners - China’s National Health Commission said there were 13 new cases of infection in the country and that 11 more people have died from the virus; all of the deaths occurred in Hubei province, where the outbreak was first detected. Altogether, China has 80,894 confirmed cases, of which, 69,601 have recovered and 3,237 died. As of now, China accounts for less than 50% of the total number of cases confirmed globally. Other countries, such as Italy, Iran, Spain, Germany, France, South Korea, and the United States have seen a sharp spike in infections in recent weeks.South Korea reported 93 new cases and 3 additional deaths, according to the country’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The total number of confirmed infection cases in South Korea stands at 8,413 and 84 people have died. General Motors, Ford Motor and Fiat Chrysler have negotiated with the United Auto Workers union to “review and implement” rotating partial shutdown of facilities and other additional measures in an attempt to keep workers safe and healthy amid the COVID-19 pandemic, the union announced. The union said it expects “more detailed information to be released in the next 24 hours. Singapore reported 23 new cases on Tuesday night, with most of them imported from overseas as people returned from trips to areas like Europe and the United States. The city-state currently has 152 active cases, while 114 people have recovered. Last week, Singapore banned new visitors with recent travel to Italy, France, Spain, and Germany.Hong Kong reported new cases that brought its total from 157 on Monday to 167 on Tuesday. Chief executive Carrie Lam yesterday announced all inbound travelers would be subject to quarantine measures and the government also issued the second-highest alert for outbound travel. Residents were urged to avoid all non-essential travel.Taiwan reported 10 new cases of infection on Tuesday that brought its total to 77. It advised residents to avoid non-essential travel as that heightens the risk of bringing the infection back to the island. Taiwan will ban most foreigners from entering as it seeks to contain the coronavirus outbreak, its government said, according to a Reuters report. Anyone who enters Taiwan will also have to serve out a home quarantine period of 14 days, the report said, citing its health minister Chen Shih-chung. He said the number of imported cases have “increased sharply.” The new measures will be effective from midnight, and the government did not say how long they will be in effect, according to the report.
- Global cases: At least 184,976, according to the latest figures from the World Health Organization
- Global deaths: At least 7,529, according to the latest figures from the WHO
Coronavirus live updates: Singapore reports its first two deaths, Italy locks down further - Singapore reported its first two confirmed deaths related to the COVID-19 outbreak.The city-state’s health ministry said the two patients who died were a 75-year-old woman, and a 64-year-old man. The female patient had pre-existing conditions including heart disease, while the male patient had been hospitalized in Indonesia for pneumonia, and also had a history of heart disease, according to the health ministry. Singapore has been lauded globally for its approach in managing the outbreak. In February, the World Health Organization said that it was “very impressed” with the way the city-state has tackled the outbreak. The number of deaths in Italy spiked by 627 in a single day — the highest daily increase recorded globally — prompting the country to impose further restrictions. On Thursday, Italy overtook China to be the world’s deadliest hotspot. As of Mar. 20, total fatalities was 4,032. The mayor of the most badly affected city, Bergamo in Lombardy, said the true number of fatalities in his area was four times higher than what was officially reported, Reuters said. Italy’s health ministry said that new restrictions include closure of all parks, and people can only exercise around their residences. Authorities were frustrated that people were still out and about despite appeals for them to stay indoors, according to reports. New cases in South Korea jumped by 147, as of Saturday morning, and it reported eight more deaths.That brings the country’s total to 8,799 confirmed cases, and 102 deaths, according to the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Daily new infections in the country have generally been on a downward trend over the past week, with 87 new cases on Friday, but the numbers reported on Saturday brings the number of new cases back above 100. China’s National Health Commission (NHC) said there were 41 new cases, and seven more deaths as of Mar. 20. That brought the country’s total to 81,008 confirmed cases, and 3255 deaths.There were no new cases in Hubei, the epicenter of the outbreak, but all the additional deaths were in the province. China said all of the new cases were imported, meaning people who traveled from overseas. The NHC said that brings China’s total number of imported cases to 269.The rise in imported cases come as students flock home from campuses in the U.S. and Europe, according to reports, sparking fears of a second wave of infections.
Containing Covid-19 (Or Not) - Stuart Staniford - In any given country, there are only two ways this virus ends. Either it spreads everywhere, completely overwhelms the health system, and culls 5-10% of the human population (and leaves some additional number with permanent lung damage). Or it gets contained - all the cases get tracked down, isolated, and the epidemic is stopped. China and Korea have demonstrated that containment is possible. The above graph shows the five day compound growth rate in the countries I'm tracking. Those two countries are clearly getting the virus under control. Japan is an intermediate case, and no-one knows whether to believe the Iranian numbers. Of the western countries, Italy has made some progress with the school closures and lockdown, but the health system is badly overwhelmed, and it's still spreading with a doubling time of around four days. Probably the full benefit of the lockdown is not apparent yet, both because it takes a while to get enforcement really working, and because cases take a while to incubate from initial infection to being diagnosed. It's not clear which of the two possible endings Italy is headed for. The US and the UK are both still with 30%/day spreads, which is a doubling time of just over 2 1/2 days. No doubt mandatory lockdowns are imminent. Here are the crude fatality rates (current known deaths over current known cases). Note that Italy is up over 7% - reflecting both an overwhelmed health system and an older population.
As lockdowns mount over COVID-19 worldwide, WHO pleads for more testing -17 March - There are now 183,000 cases of the coronavirus in 162 countries and territories worldwide, meaning that the number of active COVID-19 cases now exceeds the number of recovered patients. This includes more than 600 new deaths, bringing the total toll to over 7,200. The cases outside of China, which is now relatively stable, have now exceeded those within, as Europe has emerged as the new epicenter of the global pandemic with the United States not far behind. Emergency measures across entire nations are now commonplace as the virus shows little signs of being contained. France, Italy, Spain and Germany are under lockdown, a condition now affecting more than 250 million across Europe. Those four countries alone are collectively dealing with upwards of 52,000 cases, of which 2,663 have resulted in deaths. Fifty-seven countries on every inhabited continent have some form of travel restriction, many of them directed against Europe or the United States, in an attempt to stem the pandemic that is accelerating across the globe. In the United States, California, Ohio, Illinois, Massachusetts, Michigan, Washington, Kentucky, Maryland, Indiana, Rhode Island and Pennsylvania have all issued orders to close schools, restaurants and/or bars. The 6.7 million people living in the six counties including and surrounding San Francisco are now under a “shelter in place” order for the next three weeks, which will be enforced by local police to “ensure compliance.” New Jersey residents are now being “strongly discouraged” from leaving their homes after 8:00 p.m., which will be enforced by the state’s contingent of the National Guard. These bans are in addition to a nationwide directive from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced Monday recommending against any gathering of more than 10 people. As the World Health Organization (WHO) noted, however, such actions in and of themselves are insufficient to stop the spread of the disease. WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said yesterday that governments were not doing enough to combat the pandemic and urged them to step up their testing programs. “[W]e have not seen an urgent enough escalation in testing, isolation and contact tracing—which is the backbone of the response. … You can’t fight a fire blindfolded and we can’t stop this pandemic if we don’t know who is infected,” he said at a news conference in Geneva. “We have a simple message for all countries: test, test, test.”
Study finds COVID-19 spread in China fueled by “stealth transmission” A new study published in the journal Science has tracked the spread of the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV2, across China in January concluding 86 percent of early infections were undocumented. The researchers suggest a “radical increase” in identification of undocumented cases is vital to slow the spread. The study, from scientists at Columbia University, Imperial College London, UC Davis and the University of Hong Kong, used a computer model to simulate the spatiotemporal spread of the virus based on reported cases in 375 Chinese cites between January 10 and 23. The model ultimately showed the total spread of the virus throughout China in January could not be explained by just accounting for confirmed cases. In fact, the model suggests 86 percent of infections across that period of time went undocumented. “The explosion of COVID-19 cases in China was largely driven by individuals with mild, limited, or no symptoms who went undetected,” says Jeffrey Shaman, from Columbia University Mailman School and co-author on the new study. “Depending on their contagiousness and numbers, undetected cases can expose a far greater portion of the population to virus than would otherwise occur. We find for COVID-19 in China these undetected infected individuals are numerous and contagious. These stealth transmissions will continue to present a major challenge to the containment of this outbreak going forward.” The study found these undocumented cases were not as contagious as confirmed cases, with estimates suggesting they were only around half as contagious. However, the study did report these milder undocumented cases were most likely responsible for causing 79 percent of the subsequent documented cases.
Top Cleric On Iran's Powerful Council Of Experts Dies Of Covid-19 –- Top Iranian clerics who are close to the supreme leader have increasingly been testing positive for Covid-19, and one senior cleric has just died from it. Multiple regional news outlets have reported the death Ayatollah Hashem Bathaei-Golpaygani Monay after he tested positive for coronavirus over the weekend, in the very first instance of a member of the powerful Council of Experts diagnosed with the virus.The Council of Experts is the top clerical-government advisory body that chooses the country's supreme leader when the former dies or steps down. It's but the latest instance of the deadly virus appearing to come closer and closer to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the current supreme leader of the Islamic Republic.The 79-year old Bathaei-Golpaygani had been rushed to a hospital the city of Qom on Saturday. Mehr News Agency reported that he passed away Monday morning in the ICU.Starting weeks ago top Iranian officials began catching the virus, and a top former ambassador to Egypt and the Vatican also died from it, as it's also increasingly penetrated the top ranks of the country's elderly powerful clerical establishment. For example, 71-year-old cleric Mohammad Mirmohammadi died of the virus early this month. He was a member of the Expediency Discernment Council - also an important advisory body to the Ayatollah Khamenei.Meanwhile hard-hit Iran's death toll has jumped overnight once again. Al Jazeera reports based on Iranian state sources: Iran state TV says new coronavirus has killed another 129 people, pushing the death toll to 853 amid 14,991 confirmed cases."Our plea is that everyone take this virus seriously and in no way attempt to travel to any province," health ministry spokesman Kianoush Jahanpour said in a televised news conference."In the past 24 hours we had 1,053 confirmed new cases of coronavirus and 129 new deaths," a top health official, Alireza Vahabzadeh, stated Monday.
50 New Infections Every Hour In Iran, One Death Per 10 Minutes: Health Ministry Despite that between Tuesday and Wednesday of this week Iran witnessed its biggest ever single-day spike in Covid-19 cases, authorities are still struggling to get everyone to observe quarantine and self-isolation measures, especially after throngs of hardline Shia demonstrators have gathered to protest the closure of two of the country's holiest shrines in the city of Qom. Toward this end, Iran's Health Ministry spokesman Kianush Jahanpur made an astounding statement to put things in perspective, saying the current soaring numbers show that—"In Iran, every ten minutes one person dies from the coronavirus, 50 get infected." He added in the Twitter statement "And every 10 minutes one person dies."#Iran’s Health Ministry’s Spokesman: Every hour 50 Iranians contract #Covid19 and every 10 minutes 1 dies. Keep this data in your mind and think twice when you decide to visit relatives in Nowruz or travel to other cities. https://t.co/BBbYwv6czM — Fereshteh Sadeghi فرشته صادقی (@fresh_sadegh) March 19, 2020 He further urged citizens to think about this extreme risk every time they break national directives and go out to visit people or travel to other cities. This as on Thursday the national number of cases climbed to 18,407 — a jump of 1,046 cases from the day prior. The death toll in Iran from the coronavirus outbreak has risen to 1,284, state media reported on Thursday, among those 149 people dying of the virus in the last 24 hours, with 1,046 new cases emerging.
As Iran Hits 20,000 Cases, US Says 'Coronavirus Won't Save You From Sanctions' - Even amid a global pandemic that's altering daily life as everyone knows it, and with borders shut, markets collapsing, and talk of mobilizing the military domestically, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is keeping up the administration's "maximum pressure" campaign on Iran. "The United States sent Iran a blunt message this week: the spread of the coronavirus will not save it from U.S. sanctions that are choking off its oil revenues and isolating its economy," Reuters reports. Consider too the blunt headline to the report — U.S. to Iran: Coronavirus won't save you from sanctions. This as a top Iranian health expert warned his fellow citizens to brace for "millions" possibly killed as a result of the deadly pandemic. “Our policy of maximum pressure on the regime continues,” Brian Hook, the US Special Representative for Iranian Affairs, told reporters this week. But as Spencer Ackerman reports, this policy will actually make the Covid-19 spread more dangerous for us all: “We are not safe in any place until everyone all over the world is safe,” Paul Anatharajah Tambyah, the president of the Asia-Pacific Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infection, told the Wall Street Journal about a new wave of COVID-19 cases in east Asia. “You have to facilitate these medical goods. Anyone who argues otherwise, or does otherwise, is a sociopath or a moron,” [bold mine-DL] said Jarrett Blanc, a former State Department official who monitored Iran’s compliance with the nuclear deal that the Trump administration abandoned. “The U.S. should be busting its ass to make sure permissible medical exports are available to Iran. It’s in our self-interest.” The administration gleefully (and fanatically some would say) rolled out with new sanctions this week targeting over a dozen Iran-linked entities and individuals.
Can hot weather, like in Malaysia, stop coronavirus? - A dramatic surge in coronavirus infections in Southeast Asia in recent days has increased doubts over a theory that warmer weather could stem the spread of the virus, health experts say. Relatively low cases of infections in many Southeast Asian countries had been cited as possible evidence that hotter weather was suppressing the virus, giving hope to Europe and the United States as they head into spring. But countries from Indonesia to Thailand to Malaysia and the Philippines have recorded their highest rate of infections in recent days as testing has ramped up, in a sign seasonal factors may only play a limited role in coronavirus' spread. "The temperature theory doesn't really hold up given what's happening right now in much of Southeast Asia," said Tikki Pangestu, a professor at Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy. Though a limited amount is known about the new virus, some of the symptoms show similarities with winter influenza, which is more widespread in colder temperatures, although this is partly attributed to people crowding together inside. Places where the virus has been felt most severely, such as Wuhan in central China, northern Italy and parts of the United States, share similar climates and temperatures. In Southeast Asia, which shares a hot tropical climate, many countries had reported few cases even months after the initial outbreak at the end of last year in China, in spite of the region's close travel, business and investment ties to China. But health experts said, rather than the hot climate, this was more down to limited testing, under-detection due to a lack of resources and more imported cases as the virus moves to multiple epicentres outside of China. The spike of cases in many Southeast Asian countries has been dramatic in recent days, leading governments to take drastic action to stem the tide. In the Philippines, deaths more than doubled to 12 at the weekend, with confirmed cases rising to 140 – compared to three 10 days ago - prompting authorities to place the entire capital Manila under "community quarantine". Malaysia reported a further 125 coronavirus cases on Monday - bringing its total to 553 - the highest in Southeast Asia. Many were linked to a single event at a mosque. Thailand, which reported 33 new cases on Monday, its biggest daily jump, plans to close schools, bars, movie theatres, cockfighting arenas and other entertainment centres. Indonesia confirmed 17 more cases on Monday, taking its toll to 134, amid concerns that there could be large under-reporting in the world's fourth most populous country. Indonesia, which only recorded its first cases on March 2, had carried out only 220 tests a week ago but that has now risen to nearly a thousand.
Boffins claim HIV and malaria drugs could ‘cure coronavirus -Scientists claim that a cure for the disease is possible, thanks to two existing drugs normally used to treat malaria and HIV.The drugs, called Chloroquine and Lopinavir, could also be administered to patients with coronavirus, boffins from the University of Queensland Centre for Clinical Research claimed.According to Professor David Paterson , who is leading the research, the drugs have already been shown to wipe out the virus in test tubes.Speaking to news.com.au , he explained: “It’s a potentially effective treatment. Patients would end up with no viable coronavirus in their system at all after the end of therapy.”Researchers now want to carry out a clinical study across Australia to test the effects of the drugs on patients with the virus, MirrorOnline reports. He added: “What we want to do at the moment is a large clinical trial across Australia, looking at 50 hospitals, and what we’re going to compare is one drug, versus another drug, versus the combination of the two drugs.”
China’s Virus Center Has No New Cases After Two-Month Ordeal - The Chinese province at the center of the coronavirus outbreak reported no new infections for the first time since the pathogen emerged more than two months ago, marking a turning point in an epidemic that’s infected almost 81,000 Chinese and threatens to push the world’s second-largest economy into its first quarterly contraction in decades. The milestone for Hubei province comes as China struggles to get back on its feet after being flattened by a disease that exploded out of the city of Wuhan in late January. It’s grappling with the aftermath of containment measures that have wrought enormous social and economic damage, most of all in the 60-million province of Hubei, which is still under mass quarantine. And with the virus accelerating its spread worldwide and people within China resuming work and social activities, a second wave of infections is almost guaranteed, say experts, given how contagious the pathogen is and how easily it slips past country borders. Indeed, even as Hubei’s numbers have dwindled to zero, China is facing another concern as imported cases continue to add to the country’s tally of infections. The National Health Commission reported 34 new cases for March 18, all of them patients who brought the disease from other countries. China should watch out for “very infectious” cases among travelers entering China from other countries, and some show no symptoms at first, prominent Chinese infectious disease expert Zhong Nanshan said in a press conference on Wednesday. As its new cases dropped to zero on Thursday from a peak of 15,000 a month ago, Hubei also partially lifted the mass quarantine that’s been in place since Jan. 23, allowing some residents in lower-risk areas to leave the province for work. According to local media reports, people have to get a “green code” certification proving they are in good health in order to leave. Hubei’s mass quarantine, which encompasses Wuhan and surrounding cities, was aimed at sealing off the region where the virus first emerged from the rest of the country and world. The unprecedented and draconian measures are now being replicated by some of the highly-infectious countries. Now as work resumes and movement restrictions are lifted, the chance of another wave of infections is high, because the majority of the Chinese population is still not immune as they did not get infected in the first wave, said Raina MacIntyre, head of the biosecurity program at the University of New South Wales in Sydney. “Even if there were over 100 times more cases in China than were reported, less than 1% of the entire population were infected, leaving most people in China still susceptible,” said MacIntyre.
Coronavirus: South Korea’s infection rate falls without citywide lockdowns like China, Italy - South Korea has seen a steady decrease in new coronavirus cases for four consecutive days, despite being one of the worst-affected countries outside China, although global attention has shifted towards outbreaks in Italy and Iran. As of end-Monday, it had 7,513 cases and 54 deaths. The Korea Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) said there was an increase of 131 cases from Sunday to Monday. The country averaged more than 500 new infections a day for the past two weeks, but last Friday, this number dipped to 438, then 367 on Saturday and 248 on Sunday. The daily number of confirmed cases is reported the following day. South Korean President Moon Jae-in on Monday noted his country’s “slowing trend” of new infections but warned: “We should not be complacent at all.” His point was underscored by the KCDC, which said that among the new patients were more than 60 people who were infected while working in close proximity to each other at an insurance company call centre. “The total number of new confirmed cases is on a downturn but there are concerns over such mass infection cases”, said KCDC Deputy Director Kwon Jun-wook.
Kenyan Man Stoned To Death By Mob For Having Coronavirus - A man suspected of COVID-19 was stoned to death by locals in one African town, reported ZimEye News.The incident occurred in Kibundani Village, Kwale County, a coastal region in Kenya, on Tuesday.The man, George Kotini Hezron, was walking home from a local bar in the village of Msambweni when a mob of youths viciously attacked him....namely George Kotini Hezron while heading home from a drinking spree and on reaching Kibundani area about 3kms west of the station met a group of youth and an argument ensued as the youth took advantage of his drunkenness and started accusing him of suffering from Corona virus https://t.co/bcZsHwWHgU— Fred Ng'etich (@ngetichfred) March 18, 2020 Hezron was rushed to Msambweni Subcounty Hospital, where he later died of his injuries.
Monarchs Covered 53 Percent Less Area in Mexico this Winter - While wintering in Mexico, monarch butterflies occupied 53 percent less area this year than last year. The butterfly colonies covered 2.83 hectares of forest in Michoacán and the state of Mexico in the winter of 2019–2020 and 6.05 hectares in the winter of 2018–2019, the country’s National Commission for Protected Natural Areas announced last week (March 12).“The current reduction in the population of [monarchs] is not alarming, but we must remain vigilant that it is not a trend in the coming years,” Jorge Rickards the general director of World Wildlife Fund Mexico, says in the announcement. He explains that in most winters the butterflies form colonies across roughly three hectares; last year’s expanded occupied area was “atypical” because the insects had better weather conditions to reproduce in the spring of 2018 compared with the spring of 2019.Rickards also notes that the total number of monarchs appears to be “stable,” as the butterflies clustered together in larger groups, or hangers, than before. Because of this clustering, officials count the butterflies by area rather than individually, according to the Associated Press. Not everyone is convinced by the claims. The usual coverage area of three hectares has only been consistent since 2010, when there was a drop in forest occupation but little rebound in numbers over the following years, according to a graphic developed by the Center for Biological Diversity (see below). Scientists calculate that the butterflies must cover an overwintering area of six hectares to avoid extinction in North America. This year’s numbers fall way short of that. “Scientists were expecting the count to be down slightly, but this level of decrease is heartbreaking,” Tierra Curry, a senior scientist at the center, says in a statement.
North America Has Lost More Than 1 in 4 Birds in Last 50 Years, New Study Says - Audubon -- Almost anywhere you go, you can find birds. But while birds remain everywhere, people are actually seeing far fewer of them than just 50 years ago, according to a new study. It estimates that North America is home to nearly three billion fewer birds today compared to 1970—that’s more than 1 in 4 birds that have disappeared from the landscape in a mere half a century. “This was an astounding result, even to us,” says lead author and Cornell Lab of Ornithology conservation scientist Ken Rosenberg. The study, published today in the journal Science, marks the first time experts have tried to estimate sheer numbers of avian losses in the Western Hemisphere. Typically, conservation studies focus on a specific species, habitat, region, or type of threat. By taking a higher-level view, the study highlights that many birds we still consider common, ranging from Baltimore Orioles to Dark-eyed Juncos to Barn Swallows, are actually posting heavy population losses over time. Altogether, the research team—which included collaborators at the American Bird Conservancy, Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, U.S. Geological Survey, the Canadian Wildlife Service, and other institutions—analyzed the breeding population of 529 species by pooling data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, Audubon’s Christmas Bird Count, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service waterfowl surveys, and 10 other datasets. They also analyzed more recent data collected by weather radar technology that can track large groups of birds as they migrate to estimate their numbers. The weather radars indicated a 14 percent decrease in nocturnal spring-migrating birds in the last decade alone, helping the authors to verify the longer-term survey trends—especially for those breeding in remote northern habitats that aren’t as well monitored. Using models that incorporated all the data, they estimated the net number of birds lost over time, across various habitats and bird groupings.
An Emerging Threat to Conservation: Fear of Nature --Increasingly, research has shown that as species and ecosystems vanish, it also chips away at our ability to preserve what remains — because we no longer understand what we're losing.You probably see it all the time. The neighbor who puts pesticides on his lawn rather than deal with pesky bees. The kid who squirms and runs at the sight of a harmless garter snake slithering through the grass. The politician who votes against wildlife protection because she's never seen a wolf in the wild. The corporation that wants to bulldoze the habitat of a rare frog, but frogs are gross, so who cares, right?At best this can be termed "the extinction of experience," where our cultural and natural histories fade from our memories and therefore our reality.At its worst it becomes something even more concerning: "biophobia," the fear of living things and a complete aversion to nature.This isn't the fiction of living in a cold, empty dystopia. Sadly it's becoming a way of life for too many people — especially children.A recent study in Japan paints a striking portrait of this problem. A survey of more than 5,300 school children in the Tochigi Prefecture examined their perception of local invertebrates — 14 insect species and one spider. The results? A collective "ew." Most of the students saw the species as things to dislike, fear or abhor, or even as sources of danger. The less experience the students had with nature, the more negative their feelings. The results were published earlier this year in the in the journal Biological Conservation.
Amazon Rainforest Reaches Point of No Return - "Just when I thought the destruction couldn't get any worse, it has," says Antonio Donato Nobre, one of Brazil's leading scientists who has studied the Amazon — its unique flora and fauna, and its influence on both the local and global climate — for more than 40 years. "In terms of the Earth's climate, we have gone beyond the point of no return. There's no doubt about this." For decades, he has fought against deforestation. There have been considerable ups and downs in that time, but he points out that Brazil was once a world-leader in controlling deforestation. "Using satellite data, we monitored and we controlled. From 2005 to 2012, Brazil managed to reduce up to 83% of deforestation."Then the law on land use was relaxed, and deforestation increased dramatically — by as much as 200 percent between 2017 and 2018.It's all become much worse since Jair Bolsonaro became Brazilian president at the beginning of last year, Nobre says."There are some dangerous people in office," he says. "The Minister of Environment is a convicted criminal.The Minister of Foreign Affairs is a climate sceptic."Nobre argues that Bolsonaro doesn't care about the Amazon and has contempt for environmentalists.His administration is encouraging the land grabbers who illegally take over protected or indigenous tribal land, which they then sell on to cattle ranchers and soybean conglomerates.For indigenous tribes, life has become more dangerous. "They are being murdered, their land is being invaded," Nobre says.In August last year, the world watched as large areas of the Amazon region — a vital carbon sink sucking up and recycling global greenhouse gases — went up in flames. Nobre says the land grabbers had organised what they called a "day of fires" in August last year to honour Bolsonaro. "Thousands of people organized, through WhatsApp, to make something visible from space," he says. "They hired people on motorbikes with gasoline jugs to set fire to any land they could." The impact on the Amazon is catastrophic, Nobre says. "Half of the Amazon rainforest to the east is gone — it's losing the battle, going in the direction of a savanna.
The Pros and Cons of Planting Trees To Address Global Warming - It seems like such a simple, straightforward, empowering idea: plant trees – a lot of trees – all over the world, and watch the planet’s temperature fall. Who doesn’t love a tree or two, even far more – the right tree in the right place?– in a warming world? Nary a soul, one suspects, whether of conventional “tree hugger” category or rabid climate science detractor. Earlier this year, the one-trillion tree campaign was big news at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Salesforce founder Businessman Marc Benioff announced at the meeting that his company will “support and mobilize the conservation and restoration of 100 million trees over the next decade.”Back in Washington, D.C., President Trump and Republican lawmakers said they too support the international campaign – although Arkansas Republican Rep. Bruce Westerman came under fire for proposing a “Trillion Trees Act” that would pair a commitment to planting trees witha planto increase logging on public lands. Numerous other Republican representatives are endorsing the trees effort. Over the past few weeks, chatter has picked up that planting trees is only one piece of the puzzle when it comes to combating climate change. Trees are a good thing, but:
- We also need to protect existing forests – the Amazon, for example.
- We need to ramp up wind, solar, and geothermal energy.
- We need to burn less fossil fuel.
- We need to eat more of the right foods and less of the wrong ones and, above all else, eat sustainably.
- We need higher vehicle-mileage standards and more electric cars.
- We need to get our act together so we can better adapt to rising seas, more droughts and wildfires, and unpredictable swings in weather.
Air pollution clears in northern Italy after coronavirus lockdown – video - Air pollution over northern Italy fell after the government introduced a nationwide lockdown to fight the coronavirus, satellite imagery showed on Friday, in a new example of the pandemic’s potential impact on emissions.
Court Requires EPA to Protect Communities Against Worst-Case Chemical Spills --On Thursday, a federal district court required the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to issue long-overdue protections against worst-case scenario spills of hazardous materials, like in the case of extreme storms, fires, or flooding. The decision approved a negotiated consent decree between the EPA and a coalition of community and environmental organizations, including NRDC, the Environmental Justice Health Alliance for Chemical Policy Reform (EJHA), and Clean Water Action."This is a victory for the millions of people who live in fear of experiencing catastrophic chemical spills in their own backyards," says Kaitlin Morrison, an NRDC attorney.The EPA had failed to issue the protections for nearly 30 years, despite Congress's 1990 amendments to the Clean Water Act mandating it to do so. The coalition sued the agency in March 2019 to force action. With today's legal victory, the agency must now issue proposed rules within two years and then finalize those rules two and a half years after that.An estimated 2,500 U.S. chemical facilities, such as aboveground storage tanks holding hazardous substances, are subject only to worst-case spill-planning requirements at the state level—which, if they exist at all, are vulnerable to rollbacks. Fenceline communities—or communities living closest to chemical production and storage facilities—where most residents are low-income or people of color, are most at risk. In 2017, that risk became abundantly clear when Hurricane Harvey hit Houston. The city's density of chemical facilities and susceptibility to flooding led to the release of harmful chemicals through numerous spills, leaks, and explosions—causing some first responders to be hospitalized.
Lego bricks in the ocean could take 1,300 years to degrade A Lego brick could survive in the ocean for as many as 1,300 years, according to a new study. Researchers at the University of Plymouth analysed bricks that had washed up on the coastlines of southwest England. They confirmed the ages of individual pieces and weighed them, then compared the result with that of equivalent unused pieces. The study, published in the journal Environmental Pollution, estimated that the bricks could endure for between 100 and 1,300 years. Dr Andrew Turner, associate professor in environmental sciences, said: “Lego is one of the most popular children's toys in history and part of its appeal has always been its durability. “It is specifically designed to be played with and handled, so it may not be especially surprising that despite potentially being in the sea for decades, it isn't significantly worn down. “However, the full extent of its durability was even a surprise to us. “The pieces we tested had smoothed and discoloured, with some of the structures having fractured and fragmented, suggesting that as well as pieces remaining intact, they might also break down into microplastics. “It once again emphasises the importance of people disposing of used items properly to ensure they do not pose potential problems for the environment.”
What winter? Earth just had its second-warmest December-February on record --The months of December, January and February – which meteorologists define as winter here in the Northern Hemisphere – were the second-warmest on record, federal scientists announced Friday. Only the El Niño-fueled winter of 2015-16 was warmer, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said. El Niño, a natural warming of sea water in the tropical Pacific Ocean, acts to boost global temperatures.Global temperature records for the Earth go back to 1880. Some of the most extreme warmth was in Russia, which smashed its record for warmest winter. Temperatures there were as much as a whopping 12 degrees above average, according to the country's weather service. According to a statistical analysis done by NOAA scientists, the year 2020 is "very likely to rank among the five-warmest years on record," NOAA said.NASA, which also tracks global temperatures, also said that the winter of 2019-20 was the second-warmest on record.The warm winter comes on the heels of the second warmest year on record (2019) and the fact that the 2010s was the warmest decade ever recorded. Thanks to human-caused global warming, "this period is now the warmest in the history of modern civilization," according to the National Climate Assessment. "Human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century," the assessment said.
Spring flood forecast: Floods may affect 128 million in 23 states - While a soggy spring is forecast across the eastern half of the country this year, almost the entire nation should bask in unusual warmth from April through June. Overall, federal forecasters predict widespread flooding this spring in 23 states from the northern Plains all the way south to the Gulf Coast. The most significant flood potential is expected in parts of North Dakota, South Dakota and Minnesota. The forecast was released Thursday by flood experts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). In total, about 128 million people should see some level of flooding this spring, according to Ed Clark, the director of NOAA's National Water Center. He said that 1.2 million people live where "major" flooding is possible, mainly in the Upper Midwest and northern Plains. Major flooding means extensive inundation of structures and roads, which will lead to "significant evacuations of people ... to higher elevations." Although the flooding should reach major to moderate levels in many areas, forecasters do not expect the flooding to be as severe or prolonged overall as the historic floods in 2019. NOAA said that with soil moisture already at high levels across much of the central U.S. – and many rivers running high in the central and eastern U.S. – any heavy local rainfall could trigger flooding in these high-risk areas. "We've already seen flooding in the Southeast due to heavy rain in February and March," said Mary Erickson, deputy director of the National Weather Service on a conference call with reporters Thursday morning. "Any heavy rainfall could trigger additional flooding," she said. Erickson warned that flooding is an underrated killer and is responsible for nearly 100 deaths per year in the U.S., about half of which are in vehicles.
Greenland and Antarctica are now melting six times faster than in the 1990s, accelerating sea-level rise - Greenland and Antarctica have lost 6.4 trillion tons of ice in the past three decades; unabated, this rate of melting could cause flooding that affects hundreds of millions of people by the end of the century, NASA said in a statement. Satellite observations showed that the regions are losing ice six times faster than they were in the 1990s, according to a new study. If the current melting trend continues, the regions will be on track to match the "worst-case" scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of an extra 6.7 inches of sea level rise by 2100. "That's not a good news story," study lead author Andrew Shepherd from the University of Leeds in the United Kingdom, told the BBC. Scientists said that the two ice sheets together lost 81 billion tons per year in the 1990s, compared with 475 billion tons of ice per year in the 2010's – a whopping sixfold increase. "Today, the ice sheets contribute about a third of all sea-level rise, whereas in the 1990s, their contribution was actually pretty small at about 5%," Shepherd told the BBC. "This has important implications for the future, for coastal flooding and erosion. The resulting meltwater boosted global sea levels by 0.7 inch. Of this total sea-level rise, 60% resulted from Greenland's ice loss and 40% resulted from Antarctica's. The findings were published by an international team of 89 polar scientists from 50 organizations, and are the most comprehensive assessment to date of the changing ice sheets, NASA said.
Greenland Lost 600 Billion Tons of Ice Last Summer, Raising Sea Levels, NASA Study Finds - Greenland experienced an unusually warm summer in 2019, which caused the world's largest island to lose 600 billion tons of ice and raised sea levels by 0.2 of an inch, according to a NASA study released yesterday. That amount of ice loss more than doubled Greenland's 2002-2019 annual average. The data comes from the joint U.S.-German space mission known as Grace-FO, a pair of satellites that circle the globe and sense the variations in mass that correspond to Earth's gravity field, according to the BBC. The satellites are particularly adept at sensing tiny changes in the Earth's gravitational field caused by ice gain or loss. They have proven themselves useful in detecting groundwater storage around the globe, according to the Washington Post. The study also looked at Antarctica, noting that it continues to lose its ice mass, particularly in the Amundsen Sea Embayment and the Antarctic Peninsula on the western part of the continent, according to NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. "We knew this past summer had been particularly warm in Greenland, melting every corner of the ice sheet," lead author Isabella Velicogna said in a statement. "But the numbers really are enormous." The study was published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters. It tracked ice loss in Greenland dating back to 2002, using information from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (Grace) satellites, which went out of commission in 2017, and the new Grace-FO satellites, which launched in 2018. The FO stands for Follow On, as The Washington Post reported. The satellites revealed that from 2002 to 2019, Greenland lost 4,550 billion tons of ice, for an average of 261 billion tons every year, according to The Washington Post. 2012 and 2019 were the two largest melt years in that time frame, the BBC reported.
Greenland's melting ice raised global sea level by 2.2mm in two months - Last year’s summer was so warm that it helped trigger the loss of 600bn tons of ice from Greenland – enough to raise global sea levels by 2.2mm in just two months, new research has found. The analysis of satellite data has revealed the astounding loss of ice in just a few months of abnormally high temperatures around the northern pole. Last year was the hottest on record for the Arctic, with the annual minimum extent of sea ice in the region its second-lowest on record. Unlike the retreat of sea ice, the loss of land-based glaciers directly causes the seas to rise, imperiling coastal cities and towns around the world. Scientists have calculated that Greenland’s enormous ice sheet lost an average of 268bn tons of ice between 2002 and 2019 – less than half of what was shed last summer. By contrast, Los Angeles county, which has more than 10 million residents, consumes 1bn tons of water a year. “We knew this past summer had been particularly warm in Greenland, melting every corner of the ice sheet, but the numbers are enormous,” said Isabella Velicogna, a professor of Earth system science at University of California Irvine and lead author of the new study, which drew upon measurements taken by Nasa’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (Grace) satellite mission and its upgraded successor, Grace Follow-On. Glaciers are melting away around the world due to global heating caused by the human-induced climate crisis. Ice is reflective of sunlight so as it retreats the dark surfaces underneath absorb yet more heat, causing a further acceleration in melting. Ice is being lost from Greenland seven times faster than it was in the 1990s, scientists revealed last year, pushing up previous estimates of global sea level rise and putting 400 million people at risk of flooding every year by the end of the century. More recent research has found that Antarctica, the largest ice sheet on Earth, is also losing mass at a galloping rate, although the latest University of California and Nasa works reveals a nuanced picture. “In Antarctica, the mass loss in the west proceeds unabated, which is very bad news for sea level rise,” Velicogna said. “But we also observe a mass gain in the Atlantic sector of east Antarctica caused by an increase in snowfall, which helps mitigate the enormous increase in mass loss that we’ve seen in the last two decades in other parts of the continent.”
Two Asteroids Could Come Close Enough To Earth This Week To Create Airbursts - NASA is currently tracking an asteroid that the agency believes could pass close enough by our planet to cause an “airburst.” The asteroid, known as 2020 EF, is being tracked by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CENOS). Still, despite the close proximity of the asteroid, experts believe that it is no threat to the planet because it is too small to survive contact with Earth’s atmosphere, and will likely break into many small pieces if it does come that close to the surface of the earth.The asteroid is only about 98 feet in diameter and is traveling extremely fast, with an incredible speed of 10,000 mph.Researchers have classified 2020 EF as an Aten asteroid, which is a group of asteroids whose orbits naturally come close to the Earth, and in some cases even come into contact with the earth. This asteroid is expected to pass by earth on March 18 at 11:15 p.m. EST.The excitement does not stop there though, another asteroid, called 2020 DP4, which is much larger and traveling much faster than 2020 EF, will come just a few days later, on March 22nd at 2:36 p.m EST. 2020 DP4 is estimated to be bout 180 feet wide and traveling at a velocity rate of 18,000 mph according to CNEOS. In both cases, experts believe that we will be safe from the asteroids, although some parts of the world could experience and air burst.
Long Phased-Out Refrigeration and Insulation Chemicals Still Widely in Use and Warming the Climate - Starting decades ago, international governments phased out a class of chemical refrigerants that harmed the ozone layer and fueled global warming. Now, a new study indicates that the remaining volume of these chemicals, and the emissions they continue to release into the atmosphere, is far larger than previously thought.The findings point to a lost opportunity to cut greenhouse gas emissions on a par with the annual emissions from all passenger vehicles in the United States, but also highlight a low-cost pathway to curb future warming, researchers say.The study, published Tuesday in Nature Communications, looks at "banked" volumes of three leading chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) chemicals whose production is banned but remain in use today in older refrigeration and cooling systems and in foam insulation. CFCs were phased out of production in developed countries by 1996, and in developing countries by 2010, under the Montreal Protocol because of the leading role they played in creating the so-called "ozone hole" in the atmosphere.Emissions from these remaining CFC sources were equivalent to 25 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide from 2000 to 2020, the study concludes. Averaged over 20 years, that equals the emissions of 270 million automobiles per year according to the EPA's greenhouse gas equivalency calculator, more than all registered U.S. passenger vehicles. "If we don't deal with these banks, they are going to be emitted and contribute to delaying ozone hole recovery and contribute to future warming," Megan Jeramaz Lickley, a researcher at Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences and lead author of the study said.
Coronavirus Lockdown Linked to Falling Air Pollution Levels in Italy - As the coronavirus spreads, so do startling satellite images showing a dramatic decrease in air pollution over quarantined areas.Satellite data shared in early March showed a steep decline in nitrogen dioxide levels over China between January and February as the epidemic's epicenter of Wuhan went into lockdown. Now, images shared by the European Space Agency (ESA) suggest that a similar thing happened in Italy, which has reported the second highest number of cases after China."The decline in nitrogen dioxide emissions over the Po Valley in northern Italy is particularly evident," ESA's Copernicus Sentinel-5P mission manager Claus Zehner said. "Although there could be slight variations in the data due to cloud cover and changing weather, we are very confident that the reduction in emissions that we can see, coincides with the lockdown in Italy causing less traffic and industrial activity."The ESA published an animation Friday based on data from its Copernicus Sentinel-5p satellite that shows fluctuations in nitrogen dioxide pollution over Europe between Jan. 1 and March 11. The decline in emissions over Italy coincided with lockdown measures announced by Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte March 9 that prohibited public gatherings and non-essential travel. This followed a decision the day before to lockdown the country's North, The New York Times reported. The North has been the region hardest hit by the virus and where the pollution decline has been most evident. Nitrogen dioxide emissions are largely driven by cars, power plants and industry. While they are not a major contributor to the climate crisis, they do tend to correlate with greenhouse gas emissions, The Washington Post explained. Because Italy has made significant strides in reducing its emissions and powers itself mostly with natural gas and renewable energy, experts think the decline is down to a decrease in driving.
Don't let coronavirus stall climate action, warns architect of Paris deal - (Reuters) - Governments must not let the coronavirus pandemic derail action on climate change, an architect of the landmark Paris agreement warned on Wednesday, saying the vulnerabilities laid bare by the virus could serve to spur a more concerted response. Laurence Tubiana, a former French diplomat who was instrumental in brokering the 2015 accord aimed at averting catastrophic global warming, said the disruption caused by the coronavirus was a wake-up call. “In a way, it’s a lesson: viruses don’t respect borders, climate change doesn’t respect borders,” Tubiana, who continues to closely track climate diplomacy, told an online briefing. “If we do not manage the climate crisis it will be the same.” Tubiana was speaking amid mounting concerns that the economic disruption caused by the coronavirus could tempt governments to shy away from the massive effort to cut carbon emissions needed to stabilise the Earth’s climate system.
Democrats call for pollution reduction requirements in any aid for airlines, cruises -A group of eight Democratic senators says that any possible aid for airlines and cruises that are dealing with the fallout from the coronavirus should include requirements that these industries act in a way that is more environmentally friendly. “Given the poor environmental records of some companies in these industries, we believe that any such financial assistance should be paired with requirements that companies act in a more responsible fashion,” the senators wrote in their Wednesday letter to House and Senate leadership. “Air travel currently accounts for approximately 2.5 percent of total carbon dioxide emissions globally, and commercial aviation emissions are expected to triple by 2050. The foreign-flagged cruise industry has a checkered environmental record and most passenger liners burn heavy fuel oil, one of the dirtiest fuels,” they added. Providing financial assistance to airlines has been discussed in Congress, and President Trump has expressed support for giving a boost to both the airline and cruise industries. The Democrats on Wednesday described this as an opportunity to help the environment. “Given the large carbon footprint of commercial aviation, requiring reductions in carbon emissions would represent a major step in curbing our nation’s greenhouse gas emissions. Requiring reductions in carbon pollution from foreign-flagged cruise ships, as well as reductions in other air pollutants and increased penalties for illegal dumping, would result in cleaner air and a healthier ocean,” they wrote. “If we give the airline and cruise industries assistance without requiring them to be better environmental stewards, we would miss a major opportunity to combat climate change and ocean dumping,” they added. The letter was signed by Democratic Sens. Sheldon Whitehouse (R.I.), Martin Heinrich (N.M.), Ed Markey (Mass.), Jeff Merkley (Ore.), Richard Blumenthal (Conn.), Debbie Stabenow (Mich.), Tina Smith (Minn.) and Cory Booker (N.J.). Some of these lawmakers have previously expressed support for making this assistance conditional. “Carbon offsets should be a condition for any such bailouts,” Whitehouse tweeted Tuesday afternoon. “Airlines that want public support should live public values.”
Trump Administration Continues to Attack the Environmental Projections First Put Into Place by the Nixon Administration - Linda Beale - Under Trump, we have a complete disregard for the environment, a view that harks back to the times when rich owners of factories, mines, or corporate farms exploited and polluted land, waters, and people in their greed for profits. The Trump Administration labels environmentalists with the same type of derogatory terms that Trump uses for all of his “enemies”–i.e., almost everybody in the country that isn’t loyal to the bully-in chief because they recognize his shallow, egotistical, narcissistic lack of knowledge and caring about the well-being of the country or its citizens–even while he claims with his typical bravado and fluff that his administration makes “the very cleanest air and cleanest water on the planet” a top priority. Meanwhile, Trump is busy rolling back as many environmental protections as possible. See, e.g., Emma Newburger, Trump is rolling back over 80 environmental regulations. Here are five big changes you might have missed in 2019, CNBC (Dec 24, 2019) (rollbacks including fewer protections for endangered species). Trump and other people of wealth think they can live in a cocoon of luxury that doesn’t suffer damage when the earth’s species die out from pesticides and pollution, when the earth’s climate changes to create fires and storms hostile to life, when the earth’s waters are no longer clear and drinkable by plants, animals (and humans), when the earth’s land is destroyed by overlumbering, fracking, the rapacious thirst of oil drillers, and the careless destruction of mountains of surface mining. They are wrong, but they may not recognize it until too late. Trump’s stupidity is thinking that he who doesn’t read, hasn’t studied, and doesn’t care about science or life generally is suited to make decisions about wilderness or any of the myriad environmental issues facing us. He leads rallies where people become mesmerized by being part of a raving crowd, with little recognition themselves of the way the ultra rich are taking advantage of them in their daily lives. He knows nothing, and cares even less about what he doesn’t know. Yet his administration continues to move to change environmental policy to favor big corporate interests and disfavor local decision-making.
Energy regulators disagree on whether to delay actions amid coronavirus One commissioner on the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) has proposed delaying certain regulatory actions amid the global coronavirus outbreak. The commission’s chairman, however, is cool to the idea. The organization’s one Democratic commissioner, Richard Glick, said in a Thursday statement that while FERC is required by law to carry out certain actions, it should pause others to allow the industry to focus on its response the virus. “I believe we should refrain from acting to allow parties who are otherwise dealing with the pandemic to avoid putting resources toward seeking rehearing of a Commission order,” Glick said. Chairman Neil Chatterjee, however, said Thursday on a call with reporters that in some cases it might be good to be flexible but that in general “the last thing the industry needs right now is delays.” He added that delays would be unfair for those waiting on the commission to act. FERC regulates the interstate transmission of electricity, natural gas and oil. The energy industry has been particularly affected by the coronavirus, with oil prices plummeting this week to the lowest level since 2003. On Thursday, Chatterjee also laid out the commission’s own plan for its employees to deal with the virus. He said in a statement that most of the commission’s employees are teleworking and that its headquarters will be closed to visitors until further notice. All of its technical work through May will either be done through conference calls or web-conferencing or it will be postponed. The commissioner was also questioned on recent complaints by senators who believe FERC is becoming too partisan. The issue was heightened by the recent confirmation of James Danly, whose spot now puts Republicans in a 3-1 majority. “Filling the Republican seat while leaving the Democratic seat vacant is not in keeping with the longstanding practice of this committee or the need to keep the commission bipartisan,” said Senate Energy and Natural Resources committee ranking member Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) after voting to advance the nomination.
U.S. clean energy sector seeks subsidy help to confront slowdown - (Reuters) - Wind and solar energy companies on Thursday called on Congress to pass tax incentives that would help the sector avoid project delays and keep financing flowing amid a pandemic that has choked off supply chains and slowed construction. In a letter to House and Senate leadership, seven clean energy trade groups asked lawmakers to extend deadlines that would allow their projects to qualify for generous wind and solar federal tax credits despite delays caused by the spread of the coronavirus across the globe. The American Wind Energy Association, which signed the letter, said disruptions caused by the spread of the virus could put 35,000 jobs at risk and jeopardize $43 billion in investment. “The clean energy sector is one of the nation’s most important economic drivers. But that growth is placed at risk by a range of COVID-19 related impacts,” the groups, including AWEA, the American Council on Renewable Energy, Business Network for Offshore Wind, Energy Storage Association, National Hydropower Association, Renewable Energy Buyers Alliance and Solar Energy Industries Association, said in the letter. Solar projects currently qualify for a tax credit of 26 percent that is scheduled to fall to 22 percent next year. If firms start construction or spend 5% of a project’s capital cost by the end of this year they are eligible for the 2020 credit. Wind projects can claim a tax credit worth 1.5 cents for every killowatt-hour of electricity produced if they break ground before Jan. 1, 2021. The industry wants those deadlines extended, and for the credits to be available for so-called direct pay, meaning they could be converted to cash. Renewable energy tax credits allow developers to deduct a percentage of their projects’ costs over several years. They typically sell those benefits into the “tax equity” market, which allows companies with big tax burdens to cut those liabilities.
China Takes Axe To Alternative Energy Funding, Slashing Subsidies For Solar And Wind - China is going to cut its budget for new solar power plants in half this year and plans on completely ending handouts for offshore wind farms, according to Caixin. It is the latest in a string of moves by the Chinese government to cut support for renewable energy. The attitude has shifted in recent years as manufacturing costs have dropped. The government now seems focused on getting renewable energy to stand on its own. On Tuesday, China's National Energy Administration (NEA) announced it had cut this year’s subsidies for new solar power projects by 50% to 1.5 billion yuan ($215.8 million). "Of the total, it has earmarked 1 billion yuan for large solar projects, which will be divvied out through auctions. The remainder will be used for residential solar systems," Caixin reports. China is also doing away with subsidies for new offshore wind farms this year and is ending subsidies for new onshore projects in 20201. Shi Jingli, a professor at a research institute under China’s top economic planner said: "Cutting subsidies for new renewable energy projects is a reasonable measure to allocate funds more wisely. The generous subsidies given to offshore wind farms over the past few years have weighed on the central government’s finances and caused severe deficits in subsidy funding."Jingli continued: "Considering the damage that the coronavirus outbreak has done to businesses, the NEA has extended the application period for the auctions until mid-June. It has also given solar and wind farm operators an additional month to apply to connect their projects to the country’s power grid, which is necessary for a power plant to start selling electricity." Meanwhile, new installations of solar power capacity plunged 40% last year after the country installed 26.81 gigawatts of new capacity. Numerous other projects underway have already hit major delays due to the coronavirus outbreak and supply chain disruptions.
China’s Rethink on Car Pollution May Signal a Retreat on Climate -- Beijing's move toward relaxing emissions standards will ratchet up concern that policymakers around the world may scale back their climate goals as they seek to rescue their economies from the ravages of the coronavirus. The Chinese government is said to be debating whether to ease restrictions on the amount of harmful particles that vehicles emit from their tailpipes — a measure known as particle number, or PN. The move would help automakers battling an unprecedented slump as the pandemic slows economic activity. It could be just one of the steps by the government in Beijing to shore up key sectors. That stimulus is likely to come at a cost to efforts to protect the environment, since officials could give priority to the health of industries that have an outsized impact on greenhouse gas pollution, especially construction, transport and infrastructure. That combined with signs that green issues are slipping down the European Union’s agenda would reduce momentum on the issue from two main on main forces driving work on climate change. Although China’s measure to minimize virus spreading did cut carbon emissions and air pollution dramatically in February, that silver lining turned out to be temporary. In early March, satellite data show that nitrogen dioxide levels rose across China’s industrial heartland, an indication the country’s economy is recovering. There have been signs that China might go back to its playbook of stimulating its economy by investing in polluting industries as it did following the 2008 financial crisis. Tens of trillions of yuan of investment has been planned for major projects across China the year, including irrigation, toll roads, gas pipelines and nuclear power plants. National Development and Reform Commission, China’s macroeconomic management agency, requested recently that measures should be taken to “minimize the impact from the epidemic outbreak on the major projects and make sure that the investment (to the projects) is not interrupted.”
Exxon Loses Jurisdiction Fight in Massachusetts Climate Suit - Exxon Mobil Corp. suffered a setback in a climate change case when a federal judge ruled that a consumer protection lawsuit filed by Massachusetts should go back to state court. U.S. District Judge William G. Young in Boston on Tuesday ordered the litigation back to Suffolk County Superior Court, where Massachusetts Attorney General Maura Healey sued in October. The state accused the energy giant of hiding its early knowledge of climate change from the public and misleading investors about the future financial impact of global warming. The judge rejected Exxon’s argument that the case should stay in U.S. district court because the claims touch on important federal issues, and said case law backs Healey’s argument that it belongs in state court. “This is a significant case,” Young said at the end of a hearing conducted over the phone. “This is not a case where the issue is in any substantial doubt,” he said, adding that he’s bound by “the great weight of case law.” In a Dec. 26 filing, Healey called Exxon’s characterization of the case “self-serving and distorted,” saying the case is really about consumer protection, not claims of environmental violations that could be pre-empted by federal law. Read More: Massachusetts Wants Exxon Climate Case Back in State Court Exxon didn’t immediately respond to a message seeking comment on the ruling. The lawsuit is one of many targeting Exxon and other energy companies over their public statements about climate change over the years, though it stands out by alleging violations of state consumer protection and investor protection laws. Most of the other cases focus on so-called public nuisance claims, some of which have been dismissed and are on appeal.
Keeping the Lights On: US Utility Sector Braces for Coronavirus Impact - Every industry in the world faces dangers and disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic. Not all of those industries are tasked with keeping the lights on. U.S. power utilities and generators face an array of risks in the weeks ahead, from energy "demand destruction" as economies slow to tightening debt conditions that could ripple through the commodity markets. So far, North American utilities have not yet seen the sort of power demand reductions that occurred during China's massive lockdown or those now hitting European countries. But they're likely to start seeing similar impacts soon, according to a Tuesday update from the Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables and Energy Transition teams. Italy, as one example, saw an 8.1 percent week-on-week decrease in energy demand after the country ordered its citizens to stay at home and forced the closure of all nonessential businesses, as the chart below illustrates. Depressed demand from commercial and industrial consumers is an obvious source of concern for American electricity companies, particularly in power markets such as Texas' ERCOT where falling oil and natural-gas prices could cripple those industries. Texas is by far the largest U.S. wind market and the No. 2 market for solar behind California, fueled in part by the state's voracious C&I power demand. In contrast to C&I, residential electricity demand is "relatively more stable under economic distress," WoodMac's report said. “The key question is how long the situation lingers,” said Dan Shreve, WoodMac's head of global wind energy research. “A months-long economic slowdown will likely induce a minor recession and will probably lead to a minor reduction in power demand.”
ComEd CEO: Exelon expects to have pandemic plan in place through the summer - Exelon and its subsidiaries expect to operate under the pandemic preparedness plan through the end of summer, Commonwealth Edison CEO Joe Dominguez told Utility Dive on Tuesday. President Donald Trump also said on Monday the new outbreak could stretch into August, matching the Exelon utilities' pandemic response plan. ComEd, serving Chicago and much of northern Illinois, has been responding to the spread of the novel coronavirus ahead of its fellow subsidiaries. "Chicago was one of the first areas in the country to identify the new cases," putting ComEd at the forefront of utilities that had to react, Dominguez said. Exelon subsidiaries are "all moving on the same continuum, but not necessarily at the same speed ... we just go to that a little sooner." ComEd is not currently facing reliability impacts, said Dominguez, but scheduling delays due to the coronavirus will delay policy work in the state legislature. This diminishes the chances for a passage of a clean energy bill that would empower state regulators to exit the PJM Interconnection, as the Illinois legislature is expected to adjourn at the end of May. "The load profile of the United States is shifting right now," Scott Aaronson, vice president of security and business continuity at the Edison Electric Institute (EEI), told Utility Dive. "What that looks like remains to be seen." ComEd is watching how the virus and the response to the virus affect load, "as we see businesses shut down," according to Dominguez. The coronavirus is "not a major structural change to energy consumption patterns. I don't think we're thinking of redesigning [when nuclear and other resources are run] around an event that has that kind of time limitations," he said. One potential concern for ComEd and other utilities in the country, however, is losing staff. "Massive absentee rates" would likely lead to reduced or scattered shifts, he said, as greater absenteeism "could impact restoration time in the case of storm" or other outages. Dominguez is "most concerned of an operational failure," or the potential for critical infrastructure needs repairs and not having the "workforce to restore it."
US solar installations shot up last year, but coronavirus could have an impact going forward - The U.S. solar market installed 13.3 gigawatts (GW) of capacity in 2019, a 23% rise compared to the year before, new figures show. According to a report by the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables, solar represented almost 40% of new electricity generating capacity added in the U.S. last year. The cumulative operating photovoltaic capacity – the running total – in the U.S. now stands at more than 76 GW. “Photovoltaic” refers to a way of directly converting light from the sun into electricity. Looking ahead, Wood Mackenzie is forecasting annual growth of 47% for this year, with almost 20 GW of installations. Potential headwinds loom on the horizon, however. The SEIA said it was “closely monitoring changes to the industry as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. As of the release of this publication, the full impacts of the coronavirus outbreak on the solar industry are still developing.” The SEIA added that the “dynamic nature of the outbreak” meant it was “too early to incorporate any changes into our outlooks with enough certainty.” “Even as tariffs have slowed our growth, we’ve always said that the solar industry is resilient, and this report demonstrates that,” Abigail Ross Hopper, the SEIA’s president and CEO, said in a statement Tuesday. “We know anecdotally that the COVID-19 pandemic is starting to impact delivery schedules and that it could affect demand for solar as well as our ability to meet project completion deadlines based partly on new labor shortages.”
Maine Supreme Court upholds PUC approval of energy corridor — The state supreme court has rejected a challenge of utility regulators’ approval of a 145-mile (230-kilometer) power transmission corridor that would serve as a conduit for hydropower from Canada. NextEra Energy Resources appealed to the Maine Supreme Judicial Court after the Public Utilities Commission granted its approval to the $1 billion New England Clean Energy Connect. In its unanimous ruling, the panel brushed aside NextEra’s complaint that the PUC made a number of errors on its decision. “The commission followed the proper procedure and there is sufficient evidence in the record to support the findings it made. In short, the commission reasonably interpreted and applied the relevant statutory mandates in arriving at its decision,” the court wrote Tuesday. A message left for NextEra wasn’t immediately returned Wednesday. Central Maine Power’s New England Clean Energy Connect would allow up to 1,200 megawatts of Canadian hydropower to reach the regional power grid to meet Massachusetts’ green energy goals. Under the proposal, most of the transmission line would follow an established utility corridor, but a new path would be cut through 53 miles (85 kilometers) of wilderness that the power company owns.
Missouri Supreme Court upholds decision by court of appeals on Grain Belt Express - The Missouri Supreme Court upheld the Missouri Court of Appeals Eastern District’s 2019 decision reaffirming a PSC decision that approved a certificate of need and necessity for the Grain Belt Express Project (GBX). This Supreme Court action ends a long effort by project opponents to overturn the PSC decision on the Grain Belt Express. This is the project that has a route through north Missouri. The Project benefits 350,000 Missourians in rural communities across the state with low-cost, reliable energy. This decision sends a strong signal to the state legislature that time after time, it has been upheld that indeed the GBX project has the constitutional basis to proceed with a wind energy transmission line in Missouri. Duncan Kincheloe, MPUA President, and General Manager said, “The Missouri Supreme Court decision was welcome news for nearly forty communities across our state. We look forward to seeing this project proceed so that customers of our consumer-owned utilities can realize the cost savings this project provides.” Over the last two sessions, bills have been filed in both the Missouri House and Senate that would effectively kill the project, despite it benefitting 39 Missouri communities whose local utility has contracted to receive power transmission from the energy project.
PANDEMIC: Coal industry asks Trump, Congress for coronavirus bailout -- Friday, March 20, 2020 -- Coal has joined the list of industries asking for a federal bailout as the coronavirus pandemic batters a sector already in crisis.
Some Georgia Coal Ash Efforts Survive Legislative Midpoint - Several bills relating to the regulation of coal ash in Georgia made it through crossover day in the Georgia legislature and may still become law. But those bills did not include the high profile “lined storage bills” supported by the people of Juliette who live next door to one of the largest coal-burning power plants in the country.One effort still alive for the rest of the session would guarantee that once capped over and no longer open to the air, coal ash ponds would be more aggressively monitored for leakage than they had been previously. That bill was sponsored and backed by Republicans. Another change would make it more expensive for out of state utilities to ship their coal ash to Georgia landfills by changing the fee structure for that dumping, the aim being a disincentive to trucking in out of state coal ash at all. The bills that failed to move would have dramatically ramped up coal ash regulation here. Those bills, one in the house and one in the senate, would have required coal ash ponds be lined along the bottom to seal the heavy metal laden material from ground water. There are five ash ponds in Georgia in contact with ground water aquifers. Those efforts were acutely important to the people of the town of Juliette in Monroe County where residents share years of health anxiety related to the coal ash pond at Georgia Power's Plant Scherer. Recent water testing there suggests that well water is contaminated beyond what some consider healthy limits, though it is not settled that the contamination comes from coal ash. Pam Wolff is the moderator of a Juliette Facebook group that is the hub for community conversation around the issue and was part of a trip to the Capitol where residents lobbied for lined storage. “I'm very disappointed because just when you think that you got the people that need to be on board, on board, they do a backflip on you,” Wolff said. In return, House Representative Dale Washburn, R-Macon, helped push through a $500,000 budget bump to the Georgia EPD to help pay for third party well testing in Juliette to either confirm or refute findings of heavy metals in local well water by the environmental group the Altamaha Riverkeeper. It isn’t clear if EPD, the same agency which has the authority to approve Georgia Power’s plans to leave coal ash capped in place, will perform that third party testing or if the agency would seek out another party for the work. Community organizer Pam Wolff, who has spent the last year and a half immersing herself in the world of coal ash and drinking water, does not want EPD to do the testing. “If you really dig into it and do research, you'll know that the Georgia EPD is not going to be that third party, non-biased party that we need involved,” Wolff said.
Judge gives 1st approval to $520 million Santee Cooper suit - Courts around South Carolina are at a near standstill as the state takes precautions to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus, but a judge gave preliminary approval Tuesday to a $520 million deal that would settle a ratepayer class action lawsuit against Santee Cooper, the state-owned electric utility. The preliminary approval in the near-deserted Richland County courthouse by special state Judge Jean Toal sets the stage for final approval of what was described in Tuesday’s court hearing in superlatives — the largest cash settlement in one of the most complex lawsuits in South Carolina history. Unsaid was another superlative — that this settlement arose out of what could be the biggest business scandal in South Carolina history — the epic $9 billion failure by two once-respected electric utilities, SCANA and Santee Cooper, to build two nuclear reactors at the V.C. Summer site in Fairfield County. The Securities and Exchange Commission has pending civil fraud charges against two former SCANA top executives.
Area nuclear plants say the power will keep flowing - It’s widely known Cook Nuclear Plant in Bridgman and Palisades Power Plant in Covert have plans in case of earthquakes and other natural disasters. They also have plans for pandemics, such as the current spread of coronavirus, or COVID-19. Bill Downey, Cook plant spokesman, and Val Gent, Palisades spokeswoman, said both plants are on the same page as neighbors and industry peers. Cook has about 1,100 full-time employees and Palisades has about 600 that they want to keep safe, but also keep producing safe and reliable energy for the hundreds and thousands of other people that are stuck in their homes. “Cook plant’s longstanding and long-practiced emergency preparedness plans, combined with AEP and Indiana Michigan Power’s documented pandemic protocols, position us well to manage safe and reliable operation through the duration of the COVID-19 situation,” Downey said. Gent said Palisades remains safe, secure and stable, and there is currently no impact on the delivery of energy. “We are confident our business continuity plan, which is specifically designed for these types of situations, will ensure the reliable delivery of electricity, as we respond appropriately to any potential risks,” she said. The plants are employing steps such as social distancing, including travel restrictions, meeting reductions, and tele-commuting for employees not considered essential for daily operation.
Ohio utilities commission order might stretch limits of emergency power -The Public Utilities Commission of Ohio has gotten out in front of the coronavirus epidemic with emergency orders aimed at protecting consumers from utility shut-offs. But a provision for individual action by just the chair or vice-chair could test the limits of the commission’s authority.The PUCO’s first emergency order on the coronavirus pandemic came on March 12, three days after Gov. Mike DeWine’s executive order declaring a state of emergency in Ohio.“Last week the PUCO took action to be sure utilities are not disconnecting customers for nonpayment during the state of emergency,” said commission spokesperson Matt Schilling. A follow-up order on March 13 expanded the emergency directives to include situations where customers may need reconnections of utility service.As of March 17, American Electric Power, Dayton Power and Light, FirstEnergy, and Duke’s utilities were all suspending disconnections at least temporarily, according to information compiled by the Energy and Policy Institute. In most cases, usage charges will continue to accrue.Other parts of the March 12 PUCO order dealt with procedure changes during the public health emergency. Among them is a provision that makes Chair Sam Randazzo or deputy chair Beth Trombold “individually empowered to act and make decisions on behalf of the full Commission that are necessary to address and mitigate the impacts of that emergency.” The provision kicks in if either of them judges that it is “not practical or feasible to convene a quorum of commissioners. ”Schilling did not elaborate on what those conditions might be or whether there is any precedent for convening commission meetings via phone or a webinar/webcast set-up. “The Commission speaks through its orders,” he said. On Friday, March 20, Public Utilities Commission of Ohio Chair Sam Randazzo briefly commented on the single-commissioner delegation provision at the commission’s March 20 meeting. “We have delegated the authority to myself and Commissioner Trombold to act in the event that we can’t get together. But that’s not our preferred course of action,” he said. “So we are going to continue to try and have at least three commissioners when we need to issue a decision, like the one we’re going to issue today.”
Ohio bans door-to-door energy sales over coronavirus concerns, following Illinois, Pennsylvania -- The Public Utilities Commission of Ohio met in special session this week to issue an order prohibiting competitive gas and electricity supply companies from sending sales staff door-to-door during the declared coronavirus emergency. The order came one day after a formal request filed by the Ohio Consumers' Counsel recommending that the PUCO "immediately and indefinitely halt energy marketers' door-to-door sales so as to protect Ohioans from the coronavirus." The filing noted that the Pennsylvania PUC had approved a similar measure on Monday. The Illinois Commerce Commission adopted a similar order Wednesday. PUCO's order limits the ban to the duration of Ohio's coronavirus emergency declared March 9 by Gov. Mike DeWine. "Marketing practices involving in-person contact like door-to-door and in-store marketing by … suppliers present unnecessary risk of spreading COVID-19 to all individuals, particularly with respect to at-risk populations," the order reads. The consumers' counsel proposal argued not only that door-to-door sales now pose a "health risk" but also that "policing the tactics" of some of the marketing companies is difficult. "With schools and potentially businesses closing for the next three weeks (and maybe much longer), there will be even more Ohioans at home and subject to what are now health risks of door-to-door sales," attorneys for the consumers' counsel wrote. "Responsible marketers would already be suspending their door-to-door sales. But, as is clear from several recent mis-marketing cases, the PUCO cannot allow the marketing industry to self-regulate." The Retail Energy Supply Association had no immediate comment. But Dublin, Ohio-based IGS Energy, an independent gas and power supplier, noted that it had suspended in-person sales before regulators began banning the practice. "IGS Energy recognizes that the health and safety of our employees and the general public is paramount during this uncertain time. It is for that reason that we proactively suspended our door-to-door and in-person sales activities prior to the issuance of the Commission's order," wrote Michael Nugent, senior regulatory counsel, in an email exchange. "We will continue to monitor this situation and work proactively to mitigate the spread of COVID-19." Samuel Randazzo, chair of the PUCO, said before the commission voted to approve the order that the consumers' counsel should have just called the agency.
Judge halts federal leasing in Ohio forest » - A federal judge, in a 72-page ruling, has halted oil and natural gas leasing in the Wayne National Forest in southern Ohio, Kallanish Energy reorts. U.S. District Judge Michael Watson said the U.S. Forest Service and the Bureau of Land Management failed to consider the negative impacts of hydraulic fracturing or fracking on air quality, endangered species and watersheds under the National Environmental Policy Act. The judge, based in Columbus, Ohio, said the agencies had failed to consider the impacts of fracking in the Utica Shale on regional air quality, the endangered Indiana bat and the Little Muskingum River. Watson has ordered the federal agencies to redo their environmental analysis of the harms that could be caused by fracking in the 240,000-acre federal forest before leasing can proceed. It is likely that a scheduled March sale including Ohio properties by the BLM will be postponed. The court will rule later on whether two previously held BLM lease sales in the Wayne should be voided. In May 2017, four conservation groups had sued the Forest Service and the BLM over plans to proceed with lease sales in the Wayne. In late 2016, the federal agencies had announced plans to lease 40,000 acres in the Wayne to O&G producers. BLM has conducted lease sales in the federal forest in recent years. There are more than 1,200 vertical-only wells in the national forest that is a mix of federal, state and private land sin southeastern Ohio.
Judge Blocks New Lease Sales in Ohio's Wayne Natl Forest - Radicalized leftist groups pretending to care about the environment, including the Center for Biological Diversity, Sierra Club and Ohio Environmental Council, have struck again. In May 2017 the three groups sued the U.S. Forest Service and U.S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to block the sale of leases for oil and gas drilling in Ohio’s Wayne National Forest (WNF). Last week a federal judge ruled in their favor. The court has effectively blocked all future lease auctions for WNF and is considering overturning two previous auctions. This is a DIRECT attack on the property rights of private landowners.
Estimates Show Ohio Oil Production Shattered 19th Century Record Last Year - Oil production in Ohio last year likely surpassed the state’s all-time record set in 1896 if estimates included in the Ohio Oil and Gas Association’s (OOGA) annual Debrosse Memorial Report prove accurate.According to the report, combined conventional and unconventional oil production hit 27.9 million bbl in 2019, up from 22.7 million bbl in 2018 and well above the 23.9 million bbl record set in 1896. In the 19th century, a boom in the Trenton Limestone for a time turned the state into the nation’s leading crude producer.The bulk of last year’s oil volumes, or 24.9 million bbl, were produced by horizontal wells mostly drilled to the Utica Shale. Conventional vertical wells drilled to shallower formations such as the Clinton Sandstone accounted for 2.9 million bbl, according to Debrosse report estimates. While the state’s horizontal well operators are required to report production data quarterly, vertical operators report are required to submit their data every year by March 31.Combined conventional and unconventional natural gas production reached 2.8 Tcf, up from 2.4 Tcf in last year’s report. Nearly all gas production came from the Utica, according to the estimates, which aligned with official production data issued last month for horizontal wells. Unconventional oil estimates in the Debrosse report also aligned with year-end figures released by the state.Oil production in Ohio has undulated with commodity prices since 2012, when Utica development started ramping up. Natural gas prices declined last year and sent more operators to liquids-rich acreage.Beyond oil volumes, many of the metrics included in the OOGA report remained steady. Drilling permits in the state fell 5% year/year to 468, while completions were flat over the same time at 406.Similar to 2018, Ascent Resources LLC at No. 1 and Gulfport Energy Corp. at No. 2 were the state’s most active operators by wells drilled last year. An affiliate of Encino Energy LLC, which acquired all of Chesapeake Energy Corp.’s Utica assets in 2018, displaced Antero Resources Corp. as the third most active operator. Appalachian pure-play Antero has shifted its focus to liquids-rich acreage in West Virginia as gas prices have fallen.Ascent accounted for 28% of the wells drilled in the state last year, while Gulfport accounted for 14% and EAP Ohio LLC accounted for 10%. Ascent also drilled the most footage of any operator in the state last year at 2.3 million feet. Overall, footage drilled by operators was flat in 2019, but still high at 6.5 million feet as producers continue drilling longer, more efficient wells. Last year’s total was well above the 1.8 million feet drilled in 2011, when the first commercial Utica production was reported.
Natural gas producer Gulfport Energy taps debt restructuring adviser –sources (Reuters) - Natural gas explorer and producer Gulfport Energy Corp has hired an investment bank to help it tackle its roughly $2 billion debt pile following a collapse in energy prices, people familiar with the matter said on Wednesday. The move makes Gulfport the latest energy company to seek debt restructuring advice amid an oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, and the coronavirus pandemic. Reuters reported on Monday that shale pioneer Chesapeake Energy Corp also tapped debt restructuring bankers and lawyers. Gulfport has retained Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and its energy advisory arm Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co, to help study options to improve its finances, four sources familiar with the matter said, adding no debt restructuring move is imminent. Gulfport Energy had been grappling with low gas prices and a board challenge from activist investor Firefly Value Partners before energy stocks cratered this month. The Oklahoma City-based company has lost four-fifths of its market value since the start of the year, and now has a market capitalization of $90 million. With operations in the Utica shale of Ohio and the SCOOP play of Oklahoma, Gulfport had already cut its planned capital expenditures this year by 50%, as it sought to reduce costs and drill less while gas prices remain low. Gulfport had about $2 billion of total debt and around $643 million of available liquidity at the end of 2019, according to a February investor presentation. The company’s profits last year were wiped out by a $2 billion impairment charge. A Gulfport bond maturing in 2023 is trading around 33 cents on the dollar with a presumptive yield of 52.5%, according to Refinitiv Eikon data, indicating investors see the company in financial distress.
Coronavirus And Slumping Prices Hit Ohio Valley’s Oil & Gas Sector - Energy producers, utilities and energy sector workers across the Ohio Valley are adjusting operations and bracing for continued economic impacts as the fast-moving coronavirus pandemic continues to unfold. Efforts to limit the spread of the virus include shuttering schools and businesses and limiting travel, all of which reduce demand for energy. The federal government is moving to stabilize the economy, including a possible bailout for oil and gas producers.Oil prices fell to their lowest level in 18 years Wednesday as travel restrictions tighten and air travel plunges. Crude was trading at $20.48 Wednesday afternoon. Natural gas prices were causing Appalachian Basin producers anxiety earlier this year while they were hovering near $2. On Wednesday that price fell to about $1.60. Although it’s hard to nail down an exact number, the natural gas industry supports thousands of jobs across the region and contributes millions of dollars in taxes to state governments. In West Virginia, for example, drillers paid $146 million in severance taxes to the state in 2019. Projections for 2020 are $98 million, according to the state tax department. Falling oil prices are being driven both by shrinking demand due to the coronavirus and the price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, which flooded the market with cheap crude, said Mark Agerton, an assistant professor at the University of California, Davis who studies energy and resource economics. He said while drillers in the Marcellus and Utica shale formations will undoubtedly see an impact from lower prices, he believes as big oil-producing regions like the Permian Basin slow oil production, associated gas production there will fall too, which could benefit drillers in the Appalachian Basin.
Northeast petrochemical hub plans draw incentives but also opposition - Supporters of a new petrochemical hub in the Northeast appear just as determined as those opposing it due to environmental concerns. The potential for the development of a petrochemical industry in the Northeast of the United States has brought along tax credits and other incentives but also staunch environmental opposition. Ohio, Pennyslvania and West Virginia officials want to attract companies that would take natural gas liquids from the Marcellus and Utica shale formations to make petrochemicals in an attempt to create jobs and tax revenue. Environmental groups that fear air pollution or chemical accidents seem equally determined. They want to keep petrochemicals away from this region, home to the world’s first petrochemical plant. Shell is carrying out the most advanced project in Monaca, Pennsylvania. It is building an ethane cracker and polyethylene (PE) complex that will start service early in the 2020s decade. Thailand’s PTT Global Chemical has done some site work in Belmont County, Ohio, but has yet to make a final investment decision on a similar cracker and PE complex. In addition to plants processing ethane, there is also plenty of propane available for potential propane de-hydrogenators and polypropylene plants as well as a large need for storage, pipelines and related infrastructure. Incentives aim to get Thai company to reach FID Private non-profit organization JobsOhio will contribute $20 million on top of previous grants to get PTTGC to confirm the investment in this area along the Ohio river valley, The Times Leader reported on Feb. 8, 2020. The funds will go to Bechtel, which is set to become the contractor in the project if it moves forward, according to The Times Leader, a newspaper in Martins Ferry, a city in Belmont Country that sits along the western bank of the Ohio River. PTT Global Chemical had considered investment in an ethane cracker and PE plant since 2015. PTTGC already bought land but a final investment decision (FID) remained elusive. The Thai embassy in Washington D.C. said on Feb. 18 that a decision on the FID will be announced in 2020. In July 2019 JobsOhio awarded PTTGC’s project $30 million for site preparation. PTTGC and its South Korean partner, Daelim, committed at the time $35 million to site works. In 2016 JobsOhio provided $14 million to demolish a previous plant at the site.
Shell suspends work on multibillion-dollar cracker plant in Beaver County - Shell Chemicals said Wednesday it will temporarily halt its multibillion-dollar project to build an ethane cracker plant in Beaver County because of coronavirus concerns. The company then plans to gradually ramp work back up at the sprawling site where about 8,000 people have been working. “The decision to pause was not made lightly,” Shell Pennsylvania Chemicals Vice President Hilary Mercer said in a statement. “But we feel strongly the temporary suspension of construction activities is in the best long-term interest of our workforce, nearby townships and the commonwealth of Pennsylvania,” Mercer added. The decision came hours after Beaver County government leaders called on Shell to suspend work on the project. “It’s time to shut down. Do what you have to do, but get to that point where we won’t have anyone on that site,” Beaver County Commissioner Dan Camp said at a news conference late Wednesday morning in front of the county courthouse in Beaver. Camp, who was joined by fellow Commissioners Tony Amadio and Jack Manning and state Reps. Jim Marshall, Rob Matzie and Josh Kail, said his office had received more than 500 calls in recent days from concerned residents and Shell employees and contractors. Callers reported crowded conditions on buses that take the project’s thousands of workers to and from the work site, limited hand sanitizer and other problems. “With 8,000 workers, if something happens there, our health care facilities will not be able to undertake what they will have to do,” Camp said, noting that the Heritage Valley Beaver hospital is equipped with only 40 ventilators. “There’s potential for a very catastrophic outbreak,” Manning added.
Shell suspends construction of Beaver County petrochemical plant to address coronavirus concerns - Shell said Wednesday it will temporarily suspend construction of its ethane cracker in Beaver County to prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus. Local elected officials had called on the company earlier in the day to voluntarily close the site, where about 8,000 people are working. Officials said they’d received hundreds of complaints from workers at the site about unsanitary and crowded conditions. Beaver County has two reported cases of coronavirus.Hilary Mercer, vice president of Shell Pennsylvania Chemicals, said in a news release that the shutdown is to allow the company to “install additional mitigation measures” that align with guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to limit the spread of COVID-19.Once that’s done, Mercer said, “we will consider a phased ramp-up that allows for the continuation of safe, responsible construction jobs.” The news release did not say how long the shutdown could last.On Tuesday, the company talked publicly about actions it was taking to mitigate the coronavirus spread, even as some workers said they were concerned about close contact with others at the site.“The decision to pause was not made lightly,” Mercer said in the news release. “But we feel strongly the temporary suspension of construction activities is in the best long-term interest of our workforce, nearby townships and the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.”
Financial fallout from coronavirus could devastate the fracking and plastics industries – —As the U.S. braces for the social and financial impact of the novel coronavirus pandemic, some financial analysts predict that two markets will be among those hit hardest: Fracking and plastics manufacturing.Ethane, a byproduct of fracking, is used to manufacture plastics. The fracking industry has already seen a massive downturn in recent years: The 30 biggest fracking companies lost a combined $50 billion between 2012 and 2017—a period when oil prices were much higher than they are now, before anyone had heard of coronavirus. The global rate of confirmed coronavirus cases rose to more than 197,000 on Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has erased the gains it had made since 2017, global oil prices have fallen by half since the start of the year, and some analysts predict that oil prices could drop below $20 a barrel in the coming weeks. Natural gas prices rose slightly last week, but have since dipped back down. All of this is likely to have a ripple effect on the fracking industry, which is inextricably linked to the plastics manufacturing industry. In an attempt to salvage the industry (prior to the arrival of coronavirus), companies like Shell, Appalachian Resins, Braskem America, Aither Chemicals, and PTT Global have initiated plans to open plastics manufacturing plants that would create new demand for ethane. At least five new, massive plastics manufacturing facilities have been proposed throughout Appalachia along the Ohio River Basin in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia. Each site is estimated to create demand for ethane from 1,000 new fracked wells each year. The facility closest to completion is the Shell ethane cracker in Beaver County, Pennsylvania, 33 miles northwest of Pittsburgh. President Trump visited it for a campaign rally in the summer 2019, touting his record of oil- and gas-friendly policies. The site has been in the news recently for refusing to shut down construction during the coronavirus pandemic, keeping some 6,000 workers coming in every day andrequiring them to gather in close quarters for daily meetings—a practice Shell agreed to halt only after whistleblowers contacted local media outlets to report "unsanitary conditions."
Closed Philadelphia refinery continues to leak toxic fumes -- Thursday, March 19, 2020 -- The Philadelphia Energy Solutions refinery continued to emit concentrations of benzene far above EPA's limit for the carcinogenic gas even half a year after a June 2019 catastrophic fire shut down the 150-year-old oil processing facility, newly released data shows.
A fight over fracking at a Pennsylvania steel mill is forcing a reckoning among Democrats - The Philadelphia Inquirer - Chardaé Jones grew up in Braddock, a town of 2,114 people about 11 miles southeast of Pittsburgh on the Monongahela River, and last year became mayor. She was used to the pollution. What she found more troubling was U.S. Steel’s plan, in the works now for more than two years, to lease 10 acres to a New Mexico-based oil and gas company to extract natural gas a mile beneath the surface using a controversial drilling technique known as fracking. “A lot of this area is in a flood zone,” she said. “We’re near a river. It just seems like a recipe for disaster.” As word spread, others grew suspicious of what the proposal might mean for public health. Some of them got elected to local and state office. And in January, a neighboring town revoked the gas company’s permit to build part of a well site on its land. Opponents hope that might kill the proposal altogether — something that one prominent local Democratic politician, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, warns could cause U.S. Steel to shut down the mill and force mass layoffs, even as the company promises to invest more than $1 billion into the mill and another Pittsburgh-area facility to make them more energy efficient. The company says the on-site natural gas source would significantly reduce its costs at a moment when the steel industry has faced new struggles. Some Democrats warn that a fracking ban would clear the way for President Donald Trump to again win the critical electoral battleground of Pennsylvania. The debate over fracking has “turned into this binary choice: Either you’re pro-fracking and you’re evil and you want the world to burn, or you’re against it and like virtue-signaling," said Fetterman, who once campaigned as a fracking opponent but supports the proposed drilling here and warns its defeat would jeopardize 3,000 “family sustaining union jobs.” “The truth is messy,” \. “The biggest collision of those two [positions] in American politics is right here in Pennsylvania. It’s happening across the street there. And it’s happening anywhere else where you have a fringe of our party claiming you can walk away from all of this, and then at the same time lamenting, ‘where did all the jobs go?’ Where did all the union jobs go?' Or you wonder, ‘why are they voting for that crazy man in the red hat?’ Because he’s not trying to run my job out of existence."
Biden, in a first, says he opposes all new fracking - E&E News - Sen. Bernie Sanders recently suggested he would stay in the presidential race to push Joe Biden to the left.Last night he seemed to do exactly that.During a heated debate exchange, the former vice president said he would oppose new hydraulic fracturing projects — a significant escalation for Biden that his campaign quickly reversed."No more subsidies for the fossil fuel industry. No more drilling on federal lands. No more drilling, including offshore. No ability for the oil industry to continue to drill — period, [it] ends, number one," Biden said last night during a Democratic presidential debate.The former vice president later added: "No more, no new fracking." And after another back-and-forth, when Sanders said he was proposing to ban fracking "as soon as we possibly can" to save the planet, Biden responded: "So am I." The Vermont senator replied: "I'm not sure your proposal does that."Those moments could resonate through November's general election. Biden had until now resisted calls for a total fracking ban in favor of a more moderate approach: ending it on public lands while tightening emissions regulations for the industry on private lands. Biden's campaign said he misspoke while describing his policy. But it might not matter. Politically, Biden can't take those words back. They're already circulating courtesy of President Trump's reelection campaign and conservative media like The Daily Caller. On policy, a fracking ban has been more of a symbol than a road map; a president has few tools to unilaterally limit it on private land (Energywire, Dec. 6, 2019). Taken seriously — if not literally — his statement could alienate union workers whose jobs depend on fossil fuel projects in Pennsylvania and Ohio. That effect could be offset if it also excites the young and liberal voters who have made climate a top election issue. The question is whether they believe Biden.
EQT cuts capital spending $75M, takes other moves - EQT Corp. said Monday it has cut back on capital spending by another $75 million and said it was "well positioned for near-term durability and long-term sustainability" in the current volatile energy market. The Pittsburgh-based driller has been, since July, undergoing a top to bottom change that has streamlined operations, trimmed the workforce and shored up its finances while also reducing capex, which has dropped $200 million in the six months since EQT (NYSE: EQT) announced it. Total capital spending will be around $1.075 billion to $1.175 billion, which itself is much less than it was a year ago. EQT said it would cut back on development in the Utica Shale in Ohio. Cash flow will be an expected $225 million to $325 million, EQT said. Production will not be changed, with between 1.4 billion and 1.5 billion cubic feet of natural gas. EQT also announced that an agreement that will permanently release the firm transportation obligations of 15 percent of the company's load; firm transportation refers to the amount of money the company is obligated to pay to ship its natural gas. EQT didn't disclose the company but said it would cut its gas transmission expense by 4 cents per million cubic foot of natural gas but it would be offset by weaker average differentials. It also has been able to cut $350 million on collateral posting requirements. EQT's news release didn't address the impact of COVID-19, but Rice's comments spoke to the turmoil in oil and natural gas markets that has happened since the virus spread across the world. A dive in the oil markets due to the virus and the Russia-Saudia Arabian price has slowed down the Permian Basin, the U.S. oil play that has also had an impact on demand for Marcellus Shale natural gas.
PIPELINES: Feds: Ex-Mariner East technician falsified safety docs -- Thursday, March 19, 2020 -- A former technician working on Energy Transfer Partners' Mariner East pipeline project faces possible prison time after being charged with falsifying safety information.
Mariner East pipeline worker charged with felony for falsifying weld records - A pipeline worker from Westmoreland County is expected to plead guilty to a felony for forging documents that said a weld on the Mariner East pipeline was properly X-rayed when, in reality, it was not. Joshua Springer, of Scottdale, worked on Texas-based Energy Transfer’s Mariner East 2 pipeline project between May 2017 and June 2018, according to court documents. For the most part, he was assigned to work on a 20-mile segment between Houston and Delmont. His job involved taking X-rays of welds, interpreting that data to ensure the weld was good and recording his findings in records that would go to Energy Transfer. It is not clear from the court records which company Mr. Springer worked for. Documents filed in the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Pennsylvania indicate Mr. Springer is scheduled to plead guilty to the charge during an April 1 hearing. He faces up to five years in prison and a fine up to $250,000. But that’s unlikely to be the end of the story. A notification about Mr. Springer’s felony charge posted on the state Department of Transportation’s Office of Inspector General’s website indicates the investigation is ongoing and is being conducted with the FBI. Energy Transfer spokeswoman Lisa Coleman said on Thursday that the company’s outside auditors discovered the falsified records at some point in 2018, before the pipeline was put into service. The company X-rays all of its welds, which it credited with being able to detect the forged report. “Immediately upon learning of the situation, we reported it to the appropriate regulatory agencies and the individual was terminated by his employer,” Ms. Coleman said. “We subsequently reinspected all welds in the section of pipeline where this individual worked and confirmed that the welds were in compliance with our welding specifications and Title 195 Code requirements.” She said Energy Transfer cooperated with regulatory agencies, which “determined that we were not in violation of any regulations.” The Mariner East pipelines — there are three that run mostly parallel to each other — carry natural gas liquids between the Marcellus and Utica Shales in Ohio, West Virginia and southwestern Pennsylvania to processing facilities near Philadelphia. The $3 billion construction project has been plagued by a number of problems, including sinkholes, landslides, water contamination and other environmental permit violations.
Wolf’s coronavirus shutdown order appears to include Mariner East pipeline construction Construction on the Mariner East pipeline appears to be halted by Gov. Wolf’s new order that shuts down all “non-life-sustaining” operations and businesses. The new shut-down list released by Wolf Thursday evening indicates all construction projects, including “sub-utility” construction, cannot continue physical operations. Neither Wolf’s office nor pipeline builder Sunoco responded immediately to requests to confirm that Mariner East construction must stop. Earlier on Thursday, the company, as well as the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission, had said construction would continue during the coronavirus outbreak despite criticism from pipeline opponents in suburban Philadelphia. A statement from the PUC issued before Wolf’s latest order explained that since the commission had designated the natural gas liquid pipeline a public utility, and construction sites had not been included as part of Wolf’s list of “non-essential” businesses, construction on the line could continue. “As they are essential services, utilities are expected to continue operations, including construction projects,” the statement reads. The PUC said staff is coordinating with federal pipeline safety regulators, who have not directed pipeline builders to halt construction. State Sen. Andrew Dinniman, a Democrat from Chester County who is a vocal opponent of the Mariner East project, had written to the PUC asking it to shut down construction in lieu of the coronavirus outbreak. “What we see here is that the PUC is trapped in its initial decision,” Dinniman said. “The PUC defined this pipeline as a public utility based on a 1930s gasoline line. The truth is the pipeline does not provide any essential public utility service in the Commonwealth.”
Atlantic Coast Pipeline faces doubts | Charlotte Observer -The Atlantic Coast Pipeline is a long way from being constructed, but it’s already proving a leaky conduit for cash. The cost keeps rising for the proposed 600-mile natural gas pipeline from West Virginia, through Virginia and down to the southern border of North Carolina in Robeson County. Estimated in November 2018 to cost $5.1 billion, the project jointly owned by Dominion Energy and Duke Energy, is now expected to cost approximately $8 billion, a 60 percent jump in a year and a half.That estimate is bound to go up as the pipeline is stalled by multiple legal challenges. The Supreme Court is weighing one concerning permits for the pipeline crossing under the Appalachian Trail. Even if the pipeline gets past its legal issues, the construction delay and the inevitable unexpected construction issues will add to its price. The question now is: How much financial pressure can the pipeline stand? Southern Company, once a small partner in the project, sold its 5 percent share to Dominion last month, and Morgan Stanley analysts recently predicted that Dominion will abandon the Atlantic Coast Pipeline in favor of renewable energy. “We believe this project will not move forward due to legal risks, and as a result [Dominion] will pursue additional renewables investments,” the analysts wrote. That prediction fits with reports that show that power from renewables surged in 2019 as low-cost renewable electricity is becoming cheaper than power from fossil fuels. Despite the legal and cost issues, Dominion Energy and Duke Energy are not wavering. Aaron Ruby, a Dominion spokesman, said, “The ACP remains vitally important to North Carolina’s economy and our shift to clean energy, and we’re totally committed to its completion.” Sasha Weintraub, senior vice president of Duke Energy’s natural gas business unit, said Duke has set ambitious targets for cutting its carbon emissions and “natural gas is a big part of that.”While the utilities point to the pipeline as providing a fuel that’s cleaner than coal, natural gas isn’t necessarily friendlier to the atmosphere. Obtaining it through fracking has led to extensive leakage of methane, a potent greenhouse gas. Meanwhile, renewable energy would certainly be a stronger option if Dominion and Duke spent $8 billion on solar, wind and other renewable sources instead of on a natural gas pipeline.
Q&A: NRDC attorney on the legal issues behind Atlantic Coast Pipeline challenge - Energy News Network interview - A self-described “FERC nerd,” Gillian Giannetti explains what Supreme Court justices are now considering. Sometime before the end of June, the U.S. Supreme Court is expected to issue a decision that — one way or another — will be hugely consequential for the future of the polemical Atlantic Coast Pipeline. During oral arguments in late February, justices tangled with whether the natural gas pipeline can lawfully cross a section of the Appalachian Trail in Virginia on federal land. At the crux of this case is a permit the U.S. Forest Service granted in 2017 to tunnel under the trail within the George Washington National Forest. In 2018, the Richmond-based 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that the permit shouldn’t have been issued, thus halting construction. Costs for the Dominion Energy infrastructure project now stand at an estimated $8 billion. If built, the pipeline would bisect Virginia for roughly 300 of its 600 miles to move hydraulically fractured natural gas from West Virginia to North Carolina. The Natural Resources Defense Council has joined coalitions of conservation and social justice advocacy organizations to back the Southern Environmental Law Center in its legal clash with pipeline developers. NRDC attorney Gillian Giannetti, a self-described “FERC nerd,” has paid special attention to the high court case. She is part of the Sustainable Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Project at the environmental nonprofit. Her area of expertise since joining NRDC two years ago is gas pipelines and liquefied natural gas terminals. Giannetti, a University of Virginia Law School graduate, has lived in communities across the state for a decade. In an interview with the Energy News Network, she delved into some of the nuances of what the Supreme Court justices are now considering. The oral argument centered on two consolidated cases, U.S. Forest Service v. Cowpasture River Preservation Association and Atlantic Coast Pipeline LLC v. Cowpasture River Preservation Association.i
Pipelines, utilities guard against coronavirus but keep gas flowing | S&P Global Market Intelligence - North American natural gas transportation and distribution companies are taking measures to reduce the spread of COVID-19 and limit their employees' exposure to the coronavirus that causes the disease, but companies said they do not expect it to affect the operation of their pipelines and utilities. "There have been no impacts to our operations," Enbridge Inc. spokesperson Michael Barnes said in a March 16 email. "Early on, Enbridge took proactive steps to deal with COVID-19. We have enacted our robust continuity plans that cover a number of situations. The resilience, planning and preparation of many people across our organization means we can manage through this health crisis." The gas pipeline trade group, the Interstate Natural Gas Association of America, said its members put a priority on safety. "Pipelines have business continuity plans in place that address a wide range of emergency scenarios and ensure core operations and business functions," INGAA interim President and CEO Alex Oehler said in a statement. "To respond to the COVID-19 outbreak, INGAA members are actively coordinating with government agencies, including the Department of Transportation, Department of Homeland Security, and Department of Energy, as well as the private-sector segments of the natural gas value chain," said Oehler, who is also the head of TC Energy Corp.'s U.S. government relations team. "This coordination will help ensure safe and reliable natural gas delivery throughout this public health emergency." The COVID-19 pandemic has spread throughout the world with serious health and economic effects. According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the total number of diagnosed cases in the U.S. was 4,226 on March 17, and total deaths were at 75. The health agency's website called it a "rapidly evolving situation." Enbridge said in a statement that it is protecting employees by strictly limiting business travel and enacting a work-from-home plan across the gas pipeline company. Enbridge, Energy Transfer LP and other pipelines said they are at a heightened level of emergency response preparedness but should still be able to maintain pipeline flows as usual. "[Kinder Morgan Inc.] remains open for business — we are not reducing, limiting or shutting down any of our operations," the company said in a statement delivered by spokesperson Melissa Ruiz. "However, in response to guidance from local public health authorities, we have asked office employees and contractors to telecommute for the week of March 16, with plans to re-evaluate on a week-by-week basis. We are also restricting travel to only required domestic, business-essential travel, requesting employees cancel travel around conferences, training and non-essential customer and vendor meetings. International travel is also prohibited unless there is approval from a president."
U.S. natgas futures fall 3% with oil despite forecasts for more heating demand - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 3% on Monday along with a 10% drop in oil prices on worries that global crude demand will decline as the coronavirus slows economic growth. That move lower in gas prices came despite forecasts for cooler weather and more heating demand in the United States over the next two weeks than previously expected. Front-month gas futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 5.4 cents, or 2.9%, to $1.815 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 11:29 a.m. EDT (1529 GMT). Speculators cut their net short positions on the NYMEX and Intercontinental Exchange last week by the most since November to their lowest since November after sharp price declines in oil and gas due to coronavirus concerns caused hedge funds to exit short positions faster than long positions. Overall, speculators exited both short and long positions, causing speculative open interest in NYMEX futures and options to drop to its lowest since early January. Even before the coronavirus started to spread, gas prices were already near their lowest in four years because near-record production and mild weather enabled utilities to leave more gas in storage, making fuel shortages and price spikes this winter unlikely. Gas futures were trading about 38% below an eight-month high of $2.905 per mmBtu hit in early November.
U.S. natgas futures fall near 5% with oil, mild weather forecasts - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell almost 5% on Tuesday with oil prices declining as the coronavirus slows economic growth and forecasts for milder weather and less heating demand next week than previously expected. Front-month gas futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 8.6 cents, or 4.7%, to settle at $1.729 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). That puts the contract within a nickel of its lowest close in four years. Even before the coronavirus started to spread, gas prices were trading near their lowest in years. Near-record production and mild weather has enabled utilities to leave more gas in storage, making fuel shortages and price spikes unlikely this winter. Gas futures were trading about 40% below the eight-month high of $2.905 per mmBtu hit in early November. But prices from December 2020 on were all trading positive, on expectations gas demand will start to rise. Calendar 2021 traded above 2022 for a third session in a row for the first time since May 2019. With cooler weather expected, data provider Refinitiv projected gas demand in the U.S. Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from an average of 104.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 106.8 bcfd next week. That compares with Refinitiv's forecasts on Monday of 103.2 bcfd for this week and 108.7 bcfd for next week. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants was on track to rise to 8.6 bcfd on Tuesday from 8.5 bcfd on Monday due mostly to increases at Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass export terminal in Louisiana, according to Refinitiv. That increase in overall LNG flows came despite a decline at Cheniere's Corpus Christi plant in Texas and compares with an average of 8.0 bcfd last week and an all-time daily high of 9.5 bcfd on Jan. 31.
U.S. natgas tumbles to 24-year low as coronavirus cuts global demand outlook -(Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures plunged 7% to their lowest since 1995 on Wednesday, alongside a 24% collapse in oil prices, as travel bans sparked by the coronavirus slashed the global outlook for energy demand. "The natural gas market's capitulation has reached a new stage with today's final spiral ... to its lowest mark in decades," Front-month gas futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 12.5 cents, or 7.2%, to settle at $1.604 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), its lowest since September 1995. The all-time low for gas futures was $1.04 in January 1992. Oil prices plunged, with U.S. crude futures hitting an 18-year low, as governments worldwide accelerated lockdowns to counter the coronavirus pandemic that is causing global fuel demand to collapse. Analysts noted most gas speculators were better prepared for the current price collapse than oil speculators since their bets on gas futures and options have been net short since May 2019 - reaching a record speculative net short position of 309,492 contracts in mid February. Oil speculators, meanwhile, were net long and have always been net long, according to Refinitiv data going back to 2009. Even before the coronavirus started to spread around the world, gas prices were already trading near their lowest in years as near-record production and months of mild weather enabled utilities to leave more gas in storage, making fuel shortages and price spikes unlikely this winter. Gas futures were down about 45% below the eight-month high of $2.905 per mmBtu hit in early November. Refinitiv projected gas demand in the U.S. Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from an average of 104.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 105.3 bcfd next week. That is lower than Refinitiv's forecasts on Tuesday of 104.7 bcfd for this week and 106.8 bcfd for next week due to milder weather forecasts than earlier expected. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants was on track to rise to 8.3 bcfd on Wednesday from 8.0 bcfd on Tuesday, according to Refinitiv. That compares with an average of 8.0 bcfd last week and an all-time daily high of 9.5 bcfd on Jan. 31.
US working natural gas in underground storage decreases by 9 Bcf: EIA — US working gas in storage fell by a mere 9 Bcf last week, or just 1 Bcf stronger than what was expected from a survey of analysts by S&P Global Platts, as the COVID-19 outbreak looks to lower US-level demand further during the upcoming shoulder season. Storage inventories fell by 9 Bcf to 2.034 Tcf for the week ended March 13, the US Energy Information Administration reported Thursday morning. The pull was slightly more than the survey calling for an 8 Bcf withdrawal. It was much less than the 91 Bcf pull reported during the corresponding week in 2019 as well as the five-year average draw of 63 Bcf, according to EIA data. Storage volumes now stand 878 Bcf, or 76%, more than the year-ago level of 1.145 Tcf and 281 Bcf, or 16%, more than the five-year average of 1.753 Tcf. The NYMEX Henry Hub April contract added 2.8 cents to $1.632/MMBtu in trading following the release of the weekly storage report. With prices cratering in the past week, the incentive to inject gas this summer and withdraw next winter is at its strongest level in months, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics. The summer-winter contract spread for NYMEX Henry Hub gas widened to 55 cents on Wednesday. Both the front and back of the gas curve was lower on oversupply concerns, but the front of the curve has taken the brunt of the decline, leaving open significant buy now, sell later opportunities. This will likely motivate strong storage injections through the summer, above the supply-and-demand balance implications that necessitate a large amount of gas be injected each day. However, the late-summer period may now look especially bearish should injections early on in the season limit inject-ability further out into the summer. Platts Analytics' supply and demand model currently expects a 21 Bcf draw for the week ending March 20, which would be about half the five-year average. US-level demand has edged higher by roughly 4.2 Bcf/d from the week prior, outpacing the roughly 1 Bcf/d increase in US supplies. Demand gains are coming from the Northeast and Midwest as colder temperatures are boosting residential and commercial demand. Down south, warmer weather in Texas and the Southeast is boosting power burn demand. Upstream, supplies have risen by about 0.9 Bcf/d, the majority of which is being driven by an increase in onshore production receipts, mainly in Texas, up 0.4 Bcf/d, and the Northeast, up 0.2 Bcf/d, week over week. The first net injection of the year typically occurs during the last week in March or first week in April, according to EIA data.
U.S. natgas futures fall 3%, tie 24-year low with drop in oil prices - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell 3% on Friday, led lower by a big drop in U.S. crude oil prices, and gas tied the 24-year low hit earlier this week, as steps taken to slow the spread of coronavirus cut into global economic growth and energy demand. Traders noted that gas futures fell less than oil because gas demand is expected to rise next week as pipeline flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals increase. Front-month gas futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 5.0 cents, or 3%, to settle at $1.604 per million British thermal units, tying the September 1995 low hit on Wednesday. The all-time low for gas futures is $1.04 in January 1992. That put the front-month down over 14% this week, its biggest weekly decline since November. Crude oil prices, meanwhile, fell by the most in a week since 1991 as global demand dried up due to the coronavirus and as Washington scrambled to respond. Looking ahead, the premium of futures for May over April NGJ20-K20 rose to its highest on record and the premium of calendar 2021 over 2022 rose for a sixth session in a row, the most since February 2017, on expectations low energy prices will start to boost energy demand. Even before the coronavirus started to spread, gas prices were already trading near their lowest in years as record production and months of mild weather enabled utilities to leave more gas in storage, making fuel shortages and price spikes unlikely this winter. Now with the coming of milder spring-like weather, data provider Refinitiv projected gas demand in the U.S. Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from an average of 104.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 104.7 bcfd next week before falling to 103.4 bcfd in two weeks. That compares with Refinitiv's forecast on Thursday of 104.2 bcfd this week and 103.0 bcfd next week. The projected demand increase next week is almost entirely due to an expected increase in gas flows to LNG export plants. The amount of gas expected to flow to those plants was on track to rise to 9.1 bcfd on Friday from a five-month low of 6.4 bcfd on Wednesday after fog slowed tanker traffic into Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass plant in Louisiana.
Can't Get There From Here? - Developing Bottlenecks In The Louisiana Gas Market --The natural gas market dynamics that were expected to turn gas flow patterns and price relationships in the Eastern U.S. on their heads and, in turn, transform supply-demand dynamics in Louisiana — including around the U.S. price benchmark Henry Hub — have come to fruition. LNG exports have surged as new liquefaction and export terminals have come online, injecting a new demand source along the Louisiana coastline. Producers have lined up to serve that demand. And midstreamers have worked to get the gas there, reversing and expanding existing northbound pipelines to move gas south into and through the Bayou State. Now, Louisiana’s gas market is nearing a critical juncture: the pipelines that connect the supply gateways in northern Louisiana to the demand centers along the Gulf Coast are nearing saturation. Today, we begin a series providing an update on Louisiana’s gas pipeline constraints and the projects lining up to alleviate them.
Louisiana's Chemical Corridor Is Expanding. So Are Efforts To Stop It - Cheap natural gas and access to international ports are fueling a new industrial boom in Louisiana, along the stretch of land locals have long dubbed "cancer alley." The expansion is prompting new efforts to stop the factories, by residents concerned about the impact on their health. Sharon Lavigne grew up in rural Welcome, Louisiana, in St. James Parish, about 60 miles northwest of New Orleans, but doesn't find it a welcoming place to live anymore. The region is already home to more than 140 chemical factories and oil refineries. Now, companies from Taiwan and China are building new plastic, chemical and fertilizer plants.That includes one less than a mile from Lavigne's house, which she has made it her mission to stop."I feel like if the pollution doesn't stop, we will slowly die," she says. Lavigne doesn't leave her house much anymore, and worries about the quality of the water she drinks and the air she breathes. She says the air often smells bad. Her husband died of heart problems. Many of her neighbors have died of cancer. It's hard to link specific illnesses to certain pollutants, even though St. James Parish has an above-average rate of cancer for Louisiana, which has one of the highest rates of cancer in the country. According to reporting by ProPublica andThe Advocate, the complex going up near Lavigne's house could more than double toxic air emissions here. The project near her is a $9.4 billion megacomplex by Formosa Petrochemical, one of the biggest plastic manufacturers in the world. The state gave the company a $12 million grant to offset some of the costs. Lavigne points to a metal fence. That's where state archaeologists recently investigated and discovered graves, likely of enslaved people. The site where the giant factory was approved used to be a plantation. "I'm pretty sure a lot of us here have ancestors that are buried in one of those grave sites," Lavigne says. Lavigne founded RISE Saint James, which is using the graves and other arguments to try and stop the Formosa complex. The group is suing the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, alleging it failed to consider the harm to cultural resources, and failed to disclose environmental damage and public health risks under the National Environmental Policy Act. The group has also appealed to the state to revoke the company's permit.
Oil and gas lease bidding in Gulf of Mexico drops anew (AP) — Bidding on federal oil and gas leases in the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday was the lowest since gulf-wide sales began in August 2017 — and lower than any sale since 1993 for the productive central Gulf.Twenty-two companies made $93 million in high bids on 71 tracts, according to the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, which conducts the sales. “Wow. That’s horrible, isn’t it?” said Rene Santos, an analyst for S&P Global Platts.“If the prices stay low for a long time, the next sale is going to be potentially worse,” he said, noting that prices plummeted again Wednesday from less than $27 a barrel to $20.37 a barrel. Also Wednesday, environmental groups filed a federal court complaint in Washington, saying federal authorities approved the sale without fully analyzing the risks expanded drilling poses to the environment. Among the remedies sought by Healthy Gulf, the Sierra Club and the Center for Biological Diversity are a declaration that the government’s decision to hold Wednesday’s sale and two other ones violated the law, and to block the resulting leases. The center filed similar suits in 2018 and 2019.A price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia and worldwide drops in travel because of the new coronavirus have cut oil prices to their lowest since 2002. The central Gulf sale that March $363.2 million in high bids on 506 tracts.“With the recent drop in oil price, it came as no surprise that bidding dollar amount was significantly lower __ this is the first time the total high bid amount came in at below US $100 million since the region-wide lease sales began in 2017,”
Judge warned that Gulf oil leases ignore spill risks— Environmentalists on Wednesday updated their court battle to stop the sale of what they call “fatally flawed” oil and gas drilling leases at risk of causing a blowout or catastrophic oil spill. The supplemental complaint filed in U.S. District Court accuses the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management of failing to properly assess safety regulations and royalty rates on new leases. “It is critical that BOEM accurately assess the effects of oil and gas exploration, development, and production likely to result from a lease sale at the lease sale stage,” the complaint states, “because that is the last opportunity the agency has to adjust the number or locations of blocks it offers for lease to avoid unacceptable environmental impacts.” President Donald Trump ordered federal agencies in 2017 to overhaul all policies and regulations that could slow the development of domestic fossil fuels. The directive triggered the Interior Department to repeal many critical safety provisions for offshore development. “Against this backdrop, Interior has begun to execute an unprecedented oil and gas leasing program in the Gulf of Mexico,” the complaint states. The rollback on safety and environmental protection — including the Obama-era Well Control Rule and the Clean Power Plan — comes amid increased drilling in recent years in deeper waters where pressure and temperatures are higher, escalating the risk of explosions. Among other changes, regulators have eliminated required improvements to blowout preventers, the key piece of equipment on the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig, whose failure in April 2010 caused an explosion that killed 11 and contaminated the Gulf with more than 100 million gallons of oil. “This lease sale is coming just a month shy of the 10-year memorial of the BP Deepwater Horizon disaster and at a time of global crisis,” Brettny Hardy, an attorney with Earthjustice, said in a statement Wednesday. “It is yet another example of the Trump administration putting profits before the health and safety of people and the planet.” Nearly 2,000 platforms pumping oil and gas already spot the Gulf of Mexico, with 2,500 total active leases. Any given year, the region sees at least 2,100 oil and chemical spills. The Gulf is home to 23 marine species and two coastal bird species listed as endangered or threatened, and produces one-third of the nation’s seafood supply. Fisheries and tourism generate more than $40 billion annually in economic activity in the five Gulf Coast states.
Listen: US crude exports in the crosshairs of plunging oil demand, global supply glut –podcast -The fallout from the coronavirus and the collapse of the OPEC+ supply cut agreement have dealt US shale producers a massive blow. How the sector ultimately fares might depend on where US oil exports are headed.US crude exports climbed above 4 million b/d in the last week of February, but will that represent a peak for this year and beyond?Port of Corpus Christi CEO Sean Strawbridge joined Platts senior editor Jordan Blum in Houston to talk about how US exporters are weathering this storm.
Houston economy shakier than thought as oil and gas shed jobs in January - The Houston economy created jobs at a slower pace than initially estimated last year, as weakness in local energy and manufacturing sectors weighed on growth, employment data released Friday show. The Texas Workforce Commission uses samples of employment data to provide a timely estimate of job growth across the state. The data is revised each March when more data is available.The revised figures show Houston added about 63,000 jobs in 2019, down from initial estimates of about 90,000. The revisions the energy sector were more dramatic; oil and gas extraction added just 400 jobs last year, compared to initial estimates of 3,300.The revisions show an economy and energy sector that were far less robust that first thought — and perhaps far less able to weather a rapidly slowing national economy gripped by the coronavirus outbreak and a crash in oil prices. Crude prices suffered their biggest one-day loss in 30 years on Monday as Saudi Arabia and Russia promised to flood an already over-supplied market and ended the week at $31.73 a barrel — similar to levels seen near the bottom of the last oil bust in early 2016.The oil and gas extraction sector was already losing jobs in January, data showed, shedding 100 from a year earlier — the first year-over-year loss since the end of 2018. If oil prices stay in the $30 a barrel range this year, as many as 20,000 energy jobs could be lost in the Houston area, according to Bill Gilmer, an economist with the University of Houston. The revisions showed manufacturing, which is closely tied to energy in Houston, struggling in 2019. Manufacturing lost about 800 jobs in 2019, according to the revised data, down sharply from initial estimates that showed gains of 6,700 jobs.In January, the squeeze on manufacturing employment accelerated, with local manufacturers shedding 4,300 jobs in the first month of 2020 compared with January 2019.
Enterprise Products Partners seeks to cut budget as oil war continues - Houston pipeline operator Enterprise Products Partners is looking at ways to trim its multi-billion dollar capital expenditure budget cuts as the ongoing oil war takes its toll on the company's customers.In a Wednesday afternoon statement, Enterprise reported that the company is reviewing its 2020 capital expenditure budget due to the potential impacts of record low crude oil prices and expected lower demand from its customers. "While substantially all of our major growth capital projects are supported by long-term, bilateral agreements, we are in discussions with our customers and evaluating opportunities to reduce or defer capital expenditures, as well as continuing to explore joint venture opportunities with strategic partners," Enterprise Co-CEO Jim Teague said in a statement. Specializing in moving crude oil from shale plays to export terminals it owns along the Gulf Coast, Enterprise also owns pipelines, processing plants, storage facilities and export terminals for natural gas liquids such as ethane, propane and butane. The company set a $3 billion to $4 billion capital expenditure budget for expansion projects in 2020, as well as a $400 million budget for operations and maintenance. Enterprise's announcement comes at a time when many exploration and production companies are cutting their drilling budgets in response to rapidly falling oil prices. A showdown between Russia and Saudi Arabia has created a global supply glut while the coronavirus outbreak has lowered global demand. West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed trading at $20.37 per barrel on Wednesday afternoon, a price not seen since Feb. 2002.
Noble Energy Eases Spending by 30 Percent - Noble Energy Inc. has updated its operational and spending plans in response to the current global macroeconomic and commodity outlook. The company is reducing 2020 capital expenditures by $500 million, or nearly 30%, to now range between $1.1 and $1.3 billion for the year. Noble has also identified more than $50 million in reductions through operating and other cash costs. About 80% of the capital reduction will be in the U.S. onshore business. More than half of these reductions will occur in the Delaware Basin, according to the company. Internationally, Noble has identified $100 million in capital reductions coming from major project execution, deferral of non-critical spend into future years and the exploration program. The company will move the Alen gas monetization project in Equatorial Guinea forward for first production in early 2021 and will complete pipeline expansion work in Israel. At the end of February 2020, the company had $4.4 billion in financial liquidity. In addition, Noble Energy has no significant debt maturities before late 2024. David L. Stover, Noble Energy’s Chairman and CEO, commented, “In light of the recent commodity price downturn, we are sharply reducing capital expenditures. Deferring activity until commodity prices recover protects our investment returns, maintains free cash flow and strengthens the balance sheet."
Apache Responds to Low Oil Prices - Apache Corporation has announced multiple actions in response to the current oil price environment.The company revealed that it will reduce its Permian rig count to zero “over the coming weeks” and outlined that “activity reductions” are planned in Egypt and the North Sea.Apache has also reduced its 2020 capital investment plan to a range of $1-1.2 billion, from a range of $1.6-1.9 billion, and its board of directors has approved a reduction in the company’s quarterly dividend per share from $0.25 to $0.025.The company said it will use the $340 million of cash retained annually from the dividend reduction to “further strengthen its financial position”. “We are significantly reducing our planned rig count and well completions for the remainder of the year, and our capital spending plan will remain flexible based on market conditions,” Apache operated an average of eight rigs in the Permian during the fourth quarter (4Q) of last year, according to its latest results statement. The company’s Permian production was said to have averaged 288,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) during 4Q, including oil production of 103,000 barrels per day.Internationally, Apache operated an average of 13 rigs in 4Q, its latest results statement shows. Egypt averaged nine rigs and the North Sea averaged three rigs. Apache reported production of 189,000 boepd internationally in 4Q. The company registered a loss of $3 billion, or $7.89 per diluted common share, during 4Q. For the full-year 2019, Apache reported a loss of $3.6 billion, or $9.43 per diluted common share. Apache reduced capital investment in 2019 by 23 percent over 2018.
Kinder Morgan orders employees to work from home - -Houston pipeline operator Kinder Morgan, one of the city's largest employers, has ordered its employees to work from home amid growing concerns about the coronavirus update.Kinder Morgan is not cutting back on its operations but ordered employees across the United States to telecommute to work this week, company officials confirmed. The work from home order will be reevaluated on a week-by-week basis. On top of the work from home order, Kinder Morgan is restricting travel to essential meetings within the United States. The company is asking employees to cancel travel to conferences as well as training and non-essential customer and vendor meetings. International business travel is prohibited unless approved by a company division president.
Coronavirus is Exposing the Weaknesses of the Texas Fracking Boom - For the past few years, Texas has reaped the rewards of a huge oil boom centered on the shale formations in the Permian Basin. Companies gobbled up acreage across the region and expanded fracking operations at an unprecedented rate. West Texas became an extraction colony that single-handedly shifted global energy politics. But what was seen as an economic miracle and a beacon of American energy dominance is now at risk of implosion. The twin threats of a global pandemic and a global supply glut threaten to topple the financial house of cards that the Texas oil boom sits atop. The country’s energy sector had been on the ropes for several weeks amid a downturn in demand caused by the coronavirus outbreak in China. The Saudi Arabia-Russia price war pushed it over the edge as stock prices fell off a cliff. Now, as coronavirus continues to spread across Europe and the United States—stoking fear and uncertainty along the way—no one knows just how bad things could get.“It’s been a terrible month capped by a terrible few days,” says Clark Williams-Derry, an analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, calling it a potential “worst-case scenario” for the oil and gas sector. The rapid rate of expansion in the Permian Basin—and other drilling hotspots in the country—was built on a mountain of debt. While companies successfully fracked oil at an impressive clip, it’s such an expensive endeavor that few have ever been able to make a profit. So they turned to Wall Street banks, taking out tens of billions of dollars in loans to cover the costs of their massive production boom. Most frack-happy companies couldn’t turn a profit when oil prices were above $50 per barrel, so if the cost of crude stays low, experts warn that there may be a scourge of bankruptcies and layoffs of oil and gas companies in the coming weeks and months. Making matters even worse, much of that debt is coming due in the near term. “A lot of these companies are already on shaky financial footing, so what’s happened could push them over the edge,” Williams-Derry says.
Permian oil producers continue to slash budgets 25% or more on recession fears | S&P Global Platts — Concho Resources and other Permian Basin crude producers have continued to slash their capital budgets by 25% or more as fears of a pandemic-triggered global recession have taken hold. With oil prices hovering near $30/b, Midland, Texas-based Concho said it will cut its 2020 capital budget by more than 25% from about $2.7 billion down to $2 billion, although the Permian pure-play producer did not provide any updates on its drilling rig count or production guidance. "Concho is well positioned to weather the turmoil in the oil markets due to our high-quality asset base, low cost structure, strong balance sheet and large, uncomplicated hedge book," Concho CEO Tim Leach said in a statement Tuesday. "Additionally, we will monitor and be responsive to market conditions and have flexibility to lower our spending further." Related coverage: Hess lowers 2020 capex more than 25%, defers most exploration, but Guyana is intact The Permian's most active driller and the US' largest energy company, ExxonMobil, said Tuesday that it is preparing to "significantly" decrease its 2020 spending. "Based on this unprecedented environment, we are evaluating all appropriate steps to significantly reduce capital and operating expenses in the near term," said ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods in a statement. "We will outline plans when they are finalized." S&P Global Ratings downgraded ExxonMobil this week from an "AA+" rating to "AA" because of its cash flow deficit and the weaker 2020 outlook, although Exxon still maintained an investment-grade rating. Rival and major Permian producer Chevron is also weighing sizable cuts. With the Permian accounting for more than one-third of the United States' record-high oil production, that means many of the biggest spending cuts also are coming out of West Texas and southeastern New Mexico. Many companies have announced cutbacks of 30% or more since early March. The new coronavirus is spreading around the world and Saudi Arabia and Russia have engaged in an oil pricing war that is expected to send gluts of new volumes into the market starting in April. Late Monday, for instance, major Permian producer Pioneer Natural Resources went even further, slashing its budget by 45% and cutting its drilling rig count in half. S&P Global Chief Economist Paul Gruenwald said Tuesday that the economic impact of the coronavirus is worse than initially anticipated and that a global recession is coming in the second quarter, although the recovery could still begin before the end of the year.
The Future of Exxon and the Permian’s Flaring Crisis -The surge of fracking in the Permian has resulted in a massive increase in oil production, but also a spike in flaring, or the burning of gas from oil wells, as drilling has outpaced the construction of natural gas pipelines. The Permian Basin saw flaring and venting, the release of unburned gas, largely methane, directly into the atmosphere, jump to 810 million cubic feet per day in 2019. That means that the volume of gas burned each day exceeded the amount of gas consumed in all of Texas’ households. Even the industry admits that rampant flaring has become a major problem for its reputation (a “black eye” for the Permian), and a number of reports in the past year have raised alarm about the role that gas plays in exacerbating climate change.But the Texas Railroad Commission, which regulates the oil and gas industry in the state, has done almost nothing to rein in the practice of flaring. In 2019, the commission granted 6,972 flaring permits, and rejected none. In fact, by all accounts, the commission has not denied any of the 27,000 or so flaring permits over the past seven years.The permissive attitude reached absurd proportions last year when the Railroad Commissiongranted a permit to Exco Resources, a shale driller that wanted to flare its gas even though it had access to a pipeline, simply because the company didn’t want to pay the fees to ship the gas. It was cheaper to burn the gas, and the Texas regulator gave the go-ahead.The pressure on Texas has grown tremendously over the past year, as rampant flaring becomes increasingly indefensible. Under mounting pressure, Texas Railroad Commissioner Ryan Sitton released a report on flaring in February. While he is supposed to regulate the industry, he has consistently been one of fracking’s most powerful champions in the state.Publicly available flaring data is scarce in Texas, so Sitton’s flaring report offered some useful information, even as he praised the benefits of fracking. For instance, the number one source of flaring over a 12-month period through October 2019 was XTO Energy, which flared 23,350 million cubic feet of gas per day.XTO is a subsidiary of ExxonMobil. In August 2019, a pipeline in Midland, Texas, owned by a company called ETC had to shut down for repairs. XTO Energy sends gas from some of its Permian wells to that pipeline, so the shutdown presented the company with a problem. With nowhere to put the gas coming out of the ground, XTO decided to burn it. Because of the pipeline outage, XTO flared gas for 91 hours, according to an event report filed with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ). Not only did XTO release an unknown volume of CO2 and methane into the atmosphere — the company is not required to report those volumes — but the flaring event also resulted in the release of more than 15,000 pounds of nitrogen oxides, 30,000 pounds of carbon monoxide, and 100 pounds of sulfur dioxide, among other contaminants.
Exxon Now Wants to Write the Rules for Regulating Methane Emissions - ExxonMobil is a company capable of contradictions. It has been lobbying against government efforts to address climate change while running adstouting its own efforts to do so.And while the oil giant has been responsible for massive methane releases, Exxon has now proposed a new regulatory framework for cutting emissions of this powerful greenhouse gas that it hopes regulators and industry will adopt. As Exxon put it, the goal is to achieve “cost-effective and reasonable methane-emission regulations.”So, why is Exxon asking to be regulated?The answer may be simply that Exxon is very good at public relations. As industry publication Natural Gas Intelligence reported, this announcement “comes as energy operators face increasing pressure from lenders and shareholders to engage in decarbonization by following environmental, social, and governance standards.” Exxon's proposed regulations have three main objectives: finding and detecting leaks, minimizing the direct venting of methane as part of oil and gas operations, and record keeping and reporting. This isn’t Exxon’s first foray into voluntary regulations of methane. The corporation's natural gas subsidiary XTO started avoluntary methane emissions program in 2017. In June 2018, XTO noted that the voluntary program, which was mostly about replacing leaking valves, had reduced methane emissions by 7,200 metric tons since 2016. However, leaking valves are not the biggest source of methane emissions. In February 2018, four months before XTO was touting the success of its methane reduction program, the company experienced the second largest methane leak in U.S.history. A gas well it operated in Ohio suffered a blowout, releasing huge amounts of the heat-trapping gas. Did XTO’s voluntary program accurately report this? As The New York Times reported, “XTO Energy said it could not immediately determine how much gas had leaked.”
EOG Resources, Whiting cutting capex budgets at least 30%— EOG Resources and Whiting Petroleum said Monday they were slashing their capital spending budgets by at least 30% amid the ongoing collapse in crude prices and the anticipated global glut of supplies. Since Saudi Arabia and Russia initiated a pricing war this month to flood the market with more oil starting in April, crude prices have plunged to about $30/b and triggered a wave of spending cuts from North American producers. Many are cutting close to 30%-40% of their 2020 capital dollars, laying down drilling rigs and reducing their daily production guidance. Houston-based EOG said it would slice its spending by 31% and take its capital budget down to a range of $4.3 billion to $4.7 billion -- well down from the previous budget of up to $6.7 billion. And, after previously projecting crude production volumes would rise by up to 14%, EOG now says it expects its crude volumes to be roughly flat from last year in the range of 446,000 b/d to 466,000 b/d. EOG said it will keep its drilling focus in South Texas' Eagle Ford shale and in the Permian Basin's western Delaware Basin. "Our first priority is to generate high returns with every dollar we spend even at low oil prices," said CEO Bill Thomas in a statement. "With oil around $30, our 2020 premium drilling program is expected to generate more than 30% direct after-tax rate of return." Houston energy investment banking firm Simmons Energy said Monday that publicly traded producers are cutting by close to 30% on average but that anecdotal evidence suggests the private players are slashing their spending by even larger swaths. Likewise, Bakken shale-focused Whiting Petroleum said it will reduce its capital spending by more than 30% down to a range of $400 million to $435 million. By comparison, Whiting spent $778 million in 2019 and had planned on about $600 million in 2020. Now, it's down to nearly half its total from last year. "In light of the volatility in commodity prices, we have immediately reduced our development activity and plan to maintain a lower level until we see a sustained commodity price recovery," said CEO Bradley Holly in a statement. The company will remove one drilling rig and completions crew from its Williston Basin operations, he added. To a lesser extent, even the natural gas producers are scaling back more amid the oil price drop. Goodrich Petroleum said Monday it will cut its modest capital budget 25% from $60 million down to about $45 million and focus on its core Haynesville shale acreage in Louisiana. Last year, Goodrich spent just less than $100 million. However, Marcellus and Utica shale producer EQT Corp. said it will only slice another 6.25% off of its budget, removing $75 million from its new capital budget of just more than $1.1 billion. This is EQT's second budget cut though, now having reduced its capital spending by $200 million since its first guidance back in October.
For The First Time Since The 1970s, Texas Is Considering Curtailing Oil Production - Following the 2014 Thanksgiving massacre, Saudi Arabia effectively broke up OPEC to try to kill the US shale sector by overproducing oil and sending its price plunging. It failed largely thanks to the extreme generosity of "yield-starved" junk bond buyers. Six years later, and another, far more harrowing price water later which dragged the price of oil to nearly two decade lows, Saudi Arabia appears to have finally won. Texas regulators are considering curtailing oil production in America’s largest oil-producing state, "something they haven’t done in decades", the WSJ reports citing sources. Additionally, the report goes on to note that several oil executives have reached out to members of the Texas Railroad Commission, which regulates the industry, requesting relief following an oil-price crash which soared the most on record on Tuesday and closed around $25, still 17% down on the week. In other words, oil is joining every other US industry (including movie theaters) in seeking a bailout. Texas, which along with New Mexico, hasn't limited oil production since the 1970s, and is the home of the Permian Basin, America's most productive oil field and the epicenter of the shale revolution which started 12 years ago and has made America into the world's top oil producer, with roughly 13mmb/d in output. It has also become Saudi Arabia's top global competitor. Texas was a model for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which has sought to control world-wide oil prices in recent decades. OPEC effectively disintegrated last weekend when Saudi Arabia announced it would maximize output, boosting production to as much as 13mmb/d, unleashing panic among higher-cost OPEC oil producers. It is unclear whether regulators will ultimately act to curtail production, but staffers are examining what would be required in such an event, the people said.
Texas oil production reduction considered by Railroad Commission — The state agency that regulates Texas' behemoth energy industry is weighing a reduction in oil production — at the behest of some producers — as the public health and economic crises fueled by the new coronavirus continue deepening both nationally and here. The Texas Railroad Commission's potential inquiry into its options comes as demand for oil across the globe has dropped significantly, with people staying home and implementing social distancing practices in hopes of avoiding the spread of the virus that causes COVID-19. “A couple of Texas producers have inquired into the feasibility of the Railroad Commission prorationing production," said Travis McCormick, chief of staff to commission Chairman Wayne Christian. "No formal change in policy has been proposed. Staff is looking into what that change in policy would entail from a practical standpoint at the agency.”The Wall Street Journal first reported the producers' request and the commission's response Thursday.Jason Modglin, director of public affairs for Commissioner Christi Craddick, said the agency has not yet received a formal request to curtail production."We haven't really been able to look at it and see: 1) how we would do it and, 2) how it would benefit or help Texas producers," Modglin said.Ed Hirs, an energy economist at the University of Houston, said a reduction in oil production in Texas is not likely. "It's got to be some predators looking to just slam some people into bankruptcy in a heartbeat," Hirs said. "None of that would make a difference in the overall market."
Permian, Canadian crude firms make big budget reductions, modest production cuts - Permian Basin and Canadian oil producers continued their budget-slashing sprees on Thursday, cutting anywhere from 25%-50% of their capital dollars, although their projected production volumes are only falling by up to 10% or so. Stay up to date with the latest commodity content. Sign up for our free daily Commodities Bulletin. Sign Up Midland-based Diamondback Energy said Thursday it would slice its capital spending by more than 40% and pull more than half of its drilling rigs, while Canadian Natural Resources said it would cut its spending by 27% and delay a lot of new activity. Other smaller Canadian producers Paramount Resources and Tamarack Valley Energy announced capital budget cuts of more than 40% each. The rush to dramatically cut spending comes as crude oil prices have cratered with NYMEX WTI hovering at about $25/b on Thursday and the Western Canadian Select benchmark just above $10/b. The double whammy of a supply-and-demand hit comes as the new coronavirus pandemic is hitting global oil demand and as Saudi Arabia and Russia have initiated a pricing war to flood the market with new oil volumes starting in April. "We are in an unprecedented and uncertain market driven by fear and panic," said Diamondback CEO Travis Stice. "In this environment where we do not get paid adequately for the product we produce, we will reduce activity and focus on maintaining our financial strength." Diamondback will cut its capital budget from $2.9 billion down to $1.7 billion and, after suspending well completions for a month, pulling more than half of its 21 drilling rigs and operating just six-10 rigs in the back half of the year. Completions crews would decline from nine down to a range of three-to-five crews. . Diamondback will focus more than 70% of its activity in the more mature Midland Basin where there's a lower cost structure and the firm holds more mineral rights.
US oil, gas rig count falls 22 to 813 on week as activity cutbacks by E&Ps deepen — The US oil and gas rig count fell 22 to 813 on the week, rig data provider Enverus said Thursday, as domestic upstream operators deepened their 2020 budget and activity pullbacks in response to low crude prices and sharply reduced oil demand. The worst is far from over, observers say, as companies continue to trim their operations to the bone. In the two weeks since crude began free-falling from levels around $46/b, some companies have reduced capital spending not only once, but twice. "Just from what we've seen in capital spending announcements by some of the bigger operators in the past couple of weeks, I expect the rig count to drop by about 50 rigs in the next couple of weeks," said Bob Williams, Enverus' director of content. "It could easily be double that if this goes on for another month," Williams said. Oil prices were drifting down from above $50/b at the start of 2020 but took a sharp turn for the worse earlier this month when Russia refused to comply with further proposed production cuts by Saudis and other OPEC members. The result was market panic over a perceived future oil glut and a further steep price drop the last nine trading days. On Thursday afternoon, NYMEX crude futures were trading at $25.34/b, up $4.97. According to S&P Global Platts Analytics, WTI averaged $27.85/b, down $9.28 on the week; WTI Midland averaged $25.40/b, down $12.05; and Bakken Composite prices averaged $23.39/b, down $10.72. For natural gas, Henry Hub prices averaged $1.82/MMBtu, unchanged, while at Dominion South, prices averaged $1.40/MMBtu, down 6 cents. If the Saudis and Russia "make nice," that could prevent further hemorrhaging of budgets, but there is still the "little" problem of an overwhelming global oil glut, Williams said. "Cutting [hydraulic fracturing] crews will help some on expenses because completions account for about two-thirds of well costs nowadays," he said, "but at least completions add revenue in the form of production sold, which the market definitely doesn't need." A rise in bankruptcies is likely to follow in the coming months, Williams and other analysts say.
Historic slide in oil could cost energy industry thousands of jobs - This month’s historic swoon in oil prices has some on Wall Street worrying that crude will settle in a range under $40 a barrel. For the industry’s hundreds of thousands of workers, the bigger worry is their jobs. Though West Texas Intermediate crude has only plumbed its new lows for about a week, some are already warning that energy workers could see layoffs sometime soon if oil doesn’t rebound. “A sustained drop in oil prices would cost the sector 50,000-75,000 jobs if employment returned to its low from a few years ago,” Nathan Sheets, chief economist at PGIM Fixed Income, wrote in an email to CNBC. “During the downturn in 2015/16, U.S. employment in the oil sector fell by about one-third. In recent years, some of that has been clawed back, but a period of sustained low oil prices would no doubt push employment back toward previous troughs,” he added. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude and international benchmark Brent crude both posted their worst day since 1991 last week. WTI plunged 24.59% to $31.13 a barrel on March 9 after OPEC failed to broker a deal with ally Russia on production cuts to support oil prices. That, in turn, led the Saudis to cut their own prices and fanned fears of a global price war. WTI was trading Tuesday at $27.89 a barrel. But trying to guess the size of future layoffs — or any lasting economic impact — is a trickier process, especially given the magnitude of the fall and lingering questions over Russia’s eventual cooperation with OPEC. Historically, big declines in the price of oil tend to have a mixed impact on Americans. Quick sell-offs followed by equally quick rebounds can keep the impact to a minimum, but more sustained swoons can have real economic consequences. On the upside, a fall in oil prices usually leads to cheaper gasoline at the pump and offers the vast majority of U.S. consumers the freedom to spend their cash elsewhere.
Trump Steps In To Help Oil Industry Facing Its Own Coronavirus Crisis : NPR - Oil prices bounced back a bit after President Trump said the Department of Energy would buy crude for the nation's strategic petroleum reserve. "We're going to fill it right to the top," Trump said Friday in a wide-ranging news conference at the White House. He said it will save taxpayers "billions and billions of dollars" while helping an industry that's been reeling. While oil prices increased nearly 5% after Friday's announcement, that was just a fraction of the amount they lost earlier in the week. Oil prices had been falling out of fears the coronavirus epidemic threatened world economic growth. Demand was also down as large gatherings were canceled and people started staying home to avoid getting sick. Then prices plunged after Saudi Arabia and Russia failed to agree on production cuts and instead entered a price war last Sunday. In a stunning reversal, Saudi Arabia said it would actually boost oil production and offer a massive discount for its customers. U.S. oil companies, especially smaller ones, are now looking to make deep cuts. Industry analysts warn of possible bankruptcies, especially if oil remains where it's fallen to, in the $30 per barrel range. Companies operating in Texas's Eagle Ford Shale need prices between $40 to $60 a barrel to remain profitable.
Trump administration prepares to buy 30M barrels of oil amid industry slump - The U.S. government will buy 30 million barrels of oil from producers amid a financial downturn for the industry. The Department of Energy (DOE) announced Thursday it would conduct the sales to fill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), fulfilling a pledge by President Trump to offer assistance to the oil industry as prices plummet with the twin threats of the coronavirus and a pricing war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. “It is a common sense move. Everyone who has done any version of investing knows you try to buy low and sell high. The same goes with filling the SPR over time,” Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette said in a call with reporters. This initial purchase comes as oil has fallen to about $25 per barrel, down from roughly $50 a month ago and a steep decline from the average $60 pricetag for oil already in the reserve. The 30 million barrel purchase announced Thursday is a far cry from Trump’s Friday pledge to fill America’s emergency fuel supply “right up to the top,” maxing out at 77 million barrels. But DOE said it plans to hold additional sales, perhaps as soon as in two to three months, and is preparing to ask Congress for $3 billion to fill its fuel reserves. The purchase comes as Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin floated spending as much as $20 billion to assist the oil industry, figures Brouillette said the two had not discussed. Stocking up on oil will no doubt anger some Democrats, who have repeatedly warned that coronavirus aid should include no lifelines for the fossil fuel industry. “Diverting public funds to bail out this industry will do nothing to stop the spread of this deadly virus or provide relief to those in need,” House lawmakers wrote in a Tuesday letter spearheaded by Rep. Nanette Diaz Barragán (D-Calif.). “A bailout tells the American public that fossil fuel investors can rely on U.S. taxpayers to cover their bills when the industry’s corporate executives’ risky investments don’t pan out.”
Spill plan for 67-year-old pipeline does not need to meet enviros’ 'perfection standard' – judge -- The U.S. Coast Guard did not wrongly approve a contingency plan to clean up an oil spill that could potentially result from the leak of an Enbridge Inc pipeline that runs in waters of the Great Lakes, a federal judge in Michigan has ruled. Judge Thomas Ludington with the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Michigan said on Monday that the Coast Guard had not violated the 1990 Oil Pollution Act (OPA) nor the Administrative Procedure Act (APA) when it certified in 2017 an oil-spill plan for the pipeline’s portion in the Straits of Mackinac, which two environmental groups challenged on grounds it was inadequate under ice-sheet or high-wave conditions. To read the full story on Westlaw Practitioner Insights, click here: bit.ly/2TVdkZE
Plains All American agrees to pay $60 million for 2015 spill -- The company responsible for an oil spill that occurred five years ago near Santa Barbara reached a civil settlement with the federal government that requires it to pay more than $60 million in penalties and damages. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency announced a settlement with Plains All American Pipeline after the company's pipeline near Refugio State Beach spilled nearly 3,000 barrels of crude oil into the ocean, killing birds, fish, and other marine life, according to the agency's statement. According to the federal agency's statement, the oil spill was the result of the company's failure to address external corrosion on the pipeline. The agency states the spill was worsened by the company's failure to respond promptly to the release. This settlement comes almost a year after Santa Barbara County Superior Court Judge James Herman ordered the company to pay $3.3 million in fines for the same oil spill. The fines were imposed following a September 2018 trail where a jury found Plains All American guilty of one felony and eight misdemeanors. According to county District Attorney Joyce Dudley, the court found that Plains All American knew or should have known that the pipeline would rupture. Two years after the spill at Refugio State Beach, Plains All American announced its plans to replace the pipeline. The replacement pipeline would traverse 123 miles and three counties, including Santa Barbara. In an interview with the Sun in early 2019, a representative from Plains All American said this project would not result in any new oil production, but would only resume previous production that ceased after the spill.� Two public meetings about it were held in Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties in February 2019 to discuss this replacement project. In March 2019, staff from both counties began working on a draft environmental impact report for the project, which would be presented for public circulation and comment once completed.
RuPaul Has A Fracking Empire On His Wyoming Ranch - RuPaul’s a big fan of getting that coin. In 30 years, they went from struggling artist to a household name. Now, as the host of the wildly popular TV drag competition RuPaul’s Drag Race, he’s a household name and has amassed a net worth of $US60 ($98) million. Fans know that RuPaul and his partner Georges LeBar have a massive ranch in Wyoming. And in an interview with Terry Gross on NPR’s Fresh Air, they let us know a little more about what goes on at that ranch.“Do you have, like, horses or cattle or a farm or...?” Gross asks.“A modern ranch, 21st century ranch, is really land management,” Charles explains. “You lease the mineral rights to oil companies. And you sell water to oil companies. And you then lease the grazing rights to different ranchers. So it’s land management. Yeah.” A little fucking vague, no? Rory Soloman, a PhD candidate at NYU, looked into it after hearing the interview. Soloman found Ru’s ranch was a fracking hot spot, according to the nonprofit groupFracTracker. Earther dug further, checking public records of the couple’s ranch. We found that Ru’s partner, Australian rancher Georges LeBar, owns seven parcels of land in Wyoming totaling some 66,000 acres. LeBar’s company, Le Bar Ranch, leases that land to at least three oil companies: Anadarko E&P Onshore, Chesapeake Operating, and Anschutz Oil Company. Using FracTracker, we looked at just 10,000 of those acres and found more than35 active oil and gas wells.
Continental Resources cuts capital budget by 55% given the recent collapse in oil prices - Continental Resources Inc. said Thursday it was cutting its capital budget for 2020 to $1.2 billion, which is down 55% from the original budget of $2.65 billion as a result of the "collapse" of crude oil prices. The oil producer said it was reducing its average rig count to 3 from 9 in the Bakken and to 4 from 10.5 in Oklahoma. The company expects 2020 production to be down less than 5% from a year ago. Continental Resources said it expects to be cash flow neutral with crude oil prices under $30 per barrel of West Texas Intermediate. Crude oil futures were up 11.2% to $22.66 in recent trading, but had tumbled 57.6% over the past month. The company said it has asked Congress for an "immediate investigation" under the Trade Expansion Act as it alleges Saudi Arabia and Russia have illegally dumped crude oil earlier this month at a time of low demand resulting from the coronavirus pandemic. The company's stock, which rose 2.8% in premarket trading, as plummeted 69.8% over the past month through Wednesday, while the S&P 500 has shed 29.2%.
North Dakota weighs plan to keep some Bakken crude off market — Faced with declining demand and potentially months of oil prices below most Bakken breakeven prices, the North Dakota Industrial Commission next week will consider new rules aimed at preventing operators from either bringing more unwanted crude onto the market or abandoning wells completely. In January, the number of inactive wells in North Dakota climbed to 2,607, a new record for the state and an increase of 687 wells, or nearly 36%, from December. In a year, North Dakota's inactive well count has climbed by 1,090 wells, an increase of nearly 72%. The surge in inactive wells has left operators with a choice: allow it to fall into abandoned status, making its transfer to a new operator difficult; or bring it on production, a path that has made less economic sense as prices have fallen in recent weeks. Currently, when a well has been inactive for a year it is moved by state officials into abandoned status. Once deemed abandoned, operators have six months to either put the well back on production, plug it, or post a bond to cover the costs of its ultimate reclamation. This process can take roughly three years and can delay production at the well and potential transfer of ownership. On Tuesday, the Industrial Commission is expected to approve a policy that would allow operators to remain in inactive status through a waiver process. "I think the commission needs to send a signal to the industry and to the markets that it doesn't make good business sense to force North Dakota Bakken crude oil into a market that's already priced well below breakevens and below really what long-term world demand says the market should be at," Lynn Helms, the state's top oil and gas regulator, said Tuesday. The state approved a similar waiver policy during the 2015 oil price crash out of concern that some marginal wells in inactive status would get prematurely plugged and abandoned, hurting the long-term prospects for a rebound in prices of enhanced oil recovery, Helms said. "What we don't want to have happen is for wells that have potential for refracturing or something like that, ending up prematurely abandoned," Helms said Tuesday. "We'll just take it a month or a year at a time."
U.S. Shale Goes Viral - International and domestic oil and gas markets and prices are under heavy pressure from COVID-19 impacts and the Russian-Saudi Arabia oil market battle. Now, all eyes are on U.S. domestic producers, especially those occupying the shale patch. Here is what one needs to consider: First, the U.S. has become world’s top oil and gas producer and no matter how one looks at it, meaningful growth in U.S. volumes has come from the “unconventional” plays. U.S. production has enlarged the global pie with commensurate benefits to customers and consumers of all types. From the advent of shale oil production in 2011, U.S. crude supply has grown 133 percent, with the Permian contributing almost 70 percent of that increase. For 2017-2018 alone, the U.S. had the world’s largest-ever annual increase in production for both oil and natural gas. From the 2016 bottom of about 8.8 MMBD through end of 2019, overall U.S. oil production increased 45 percent to roughly 13 MMBD. Oil and liquids supply from the mighty Permian grew almost 80 percent, from the Denver-Julesburg basin (Niobrara) about 77 percent, from the Bakken more than 50 percent, and from the Oklahoma shale plays (SCOOP, STACK and others) about 38 percent. The Federal OCS Gulf of Mexico (GOM), which had been edging toward a comeback, grew roughly 13 percent.Second, the vibrancy of the U.S. domestic producer population is unique in the world. Over the years, the industry has recovered from many setbacks to rebuild, tackle new frontiers, survive and thrive. Third, for some time, investors have preferred the lure of shale development risk to that of conventional exploration risk. Fourth, any new investment – even drilling to maintain a company’s operations and workforce – hinges on external capital. Even before the COVID-19 and Russia-Saudi, much less has been available to the industry, given investor discontent with profitability and cash positions. Unhappiness shows up in S&P industry weightings which, for oil and gas, declined from roughly 12 percent in 2009 post-recession to below 3 percent currently.
Can shale survive another bust? - - The shale oil and gas industry faced an uncertain future long before oil markets crashed this week as burgeoning supplies, lackluster prices, dwindling capital and increasing competition from renewable energy squeezed profits, cut employment and pushed some companies into bankruptcy. The dramatic plunge of crude to around $30 a barrel — half the price at the beginning of year — is likely to accelerate those trends, forcing more layoffs and bankruptcies and delivering another blow to the Houston economy. As with the last oil bust, which stretched from 2014 to 2016, only the strongest, best financed and most efficient companies will survive if prices remain depressed over a long period, analysts said, again reshaping the industry into one that is smaller, leaner and employing far fewer workers.“We will see a lot of defaults and Chapter 11 bankruptcies. That will be inevitable at $30 a barrel,” said Alexandre Ramos-Peon, a senior shale analyst with Norwegian research firm Rystad Energy. “It’s going to be tough times.” The cause of these tough times is a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia that threatens to flood the global market with cheap crude, just as demand is weakening amid a economic slowdown caused by the novel coronavirus. Oil prices on Monday suffered their biggest one-day decline since the first Gulf War almost 30 years ago, plunging 25 percent to settle in New York at $31.13 per barrel, the lowest price since the last oil bust hit bottom in early 2016. Prices have remained in the low $30s since. Oil settled Friday at $31.73 a barrel. U.S. shale companies will likely bear the brunt of the fallout. While many shale companies can turn a profit with oil between $50 and $60 per barrel, few can survive at $30 without drastic cuts to production and staff. If oil prices stay in the $30 a barrel range this year, as many as 20,000 energy jobs could be lost in the Houston area alone, according to Bill Gilmer, an economist with the University of Houston. Energy companies have already begun to slash spending in response to the crash. Apache Corp., Devon Energy, Marathon Oil, Noble Energy and Occidental Petroleum this week reduced their capital budgets by about a third, each cutting at least $500 million from funds used for oil exploration and production across West Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Wyoming. West Texas producers Diamondback Energy and Parsley Energy began idling oil rigs and laying off fracking crews.
The Energy Downgrade Avalanche Begins- Exxon Loses AA+ Rating - For the past 9 years ever since the downgrade of the US government by S&P from AAA to AA+, American energy giant Exxon, which back in 2007 had a market cap of over $500 billion only to see that cut by two thirds to $150BN today (half of where it was at the start of the year) , had the same Standard and Poor's credit rating as the US government. That period of perplexing parity ended just after 1pm on Monday, when S&P, confirming it would move quickly on rating downgrades this time following a near record plunge in the price of oil last week, downgraded Exxon from AA+ to AA as Exxon's "Lower Oil Price Assumption Weakens Cash Flow/Leverage Metrics"; and since the outlook is negative, it means more downgrades are coming. Highlights from the downgrade below:
- U.S.-based integrated oil company Exxon Mobil Corp.'s cash flow/leverage measures fell well below S&P's expectations for the rating in 2019, and with lower oil and natural gas prices, low refining margins and weak chemicals demand anticipated over the next two years, the rating agency expects measures to remain weak without a significant change in the company's financial plans.
- S&P revised its estimates to reflect the recent reduction in our crude oil and natural gas price deck assumptions.
- As a result, S&P is lowering its issuer credit rating and unsecured debt ratings on ExxonMobil to 'AA' from 'AA+'.
- The negative outlook reflects the potential for a further downgrade if the company does not take adequate steps to improve cash flows and leverage over the next 12 to 24 months, in order to bring funds from operations (FFO)/debt closer to 60% and debt to EBITDA to about 1.5x for a sustained period.
The full note is below:
Senator Calls On Trump To Embargo Russia, OPEC Crude “We will not be bullied” is the message Senator Kevin Cramer would like President Donald Trump to send to Saudi Arabia and Russia about the unsettled oil markets that the two nations, along with the UAE are presently flooding.The Republican Senator from North Dakota issued a letter to the President on Wednesday, calling for an embargo for crude oil from Russia, Saudi Arabia, and other OPEC nations.The letter requests that an “immediate signal” be sent, saying that “The United States will not be bullied or taken for granted,” according to the Senator’s Twitter feed.“Foreign nations are now using the environment of the worldwide spread of COVID-19 to flood the market and cripple our domestic energy producers.” Senator Cramer takes an additional dig at Russia’s actions: “these bullying tactics by Russia have become the norm”, adding that Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, has been our partner, making its actions particularly concerning.Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the UAE have all vowed to ramp up oil production as of April 1 when the current OPEC agreement to curb oil production is set to expire, and Saudi Arabia has already prepared to unleash a flood of cheap crude on the market next month.Of the 284.3 million barrels of oil the United States imported in December last year, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the United States imported an average of 43.7 million barrels of oil from OPEC nations (14.5 million of which came from Saudi Arabia), and 21.5 million barrels from Russia.
Federal regulators approve Jordan Cove LNG project in Coos Bay and 230 mile feeder pipeline - Federal regulators on Thursday approved the Jordan Cove liquefied natural gas export terminal in Coos Bay and the 230-mile Pacific Connector Pipeline, presaging a battle with the state of Oregon, whose regulators have declined to issue the three most significant state permits for the facility. The project’s owner, Calgary-based Pembina Pipeline Corp., immediately informed the Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development that it intends to file a federal appeal to that agency’s decision last month that the project is inconsistent with state land use laws. Statute allows the company to appeal the decision to U.S. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross, and the Trump administration is a firm backer of energy exports in general, and the Jordan Cove project in particular. The notice of appeal the company sent to the agency Thursday may be a declaration of war with the state, however. Backers of the project have been promising locals for 15 years that they would comply with state and local permits, but Pembina is now signaling that it intends to preempt the state. FERC’s decision and the notice of appeal immediately drew fire from Gov. Kate Brown and Sen. Ron Wyden, and Brown vowed the project wouldn’t move forward without following state permitting processes. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission voted 2-1 to approve the controversial project, effectively agreeing with a staff recommendation that most of the project’s impacts could be reduced to less than significant levels, and the public need for the facility outweighed any of those impacts. Oregon’s Department of Environmental Quality denied the project’s water quality certificate last year. It did so in part for procedural reasons and said Jordan Cove could reapply. But it also said at the time that it had “insufficient information to demonstrate compliance with water quality standards, and because the available information shows that some standards are more likely than not to be violated.”
TSX loses another 8% as Canadian oil price falls to lowest level on record | CBC News - The price of a barrel of Canadian oilsands crude oil fell to its lowest level ever on Wednesday, and the Toronto Stock Exchange sold off heavily as a result. Western Canadian Select (WCS) was changing hands at one point as low as $7.63 US per barrel, down $4.60 from Tuesday's level. The U.S. benchmark known as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also fell to below $22 a barrel, a level it has not hit since 2003. That was bad news for shares in oil companies, many of which trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Selling on the TSX was so heavy that automatic circuit breakers designed to give markets a pause during times of turmoil kicked in. When the decline hit seven per cent, markets were automatically shut down for a breather. When they reopened the selling continued, with the TSX closing down 963 points or almost eight per cent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fared almost as bad, closing below the 20,000-point level. The TSX was mostly dragged down by shares in oil companies, which were themselves responding to a plunge in the price of crude. Oil is being walloped by too much supply in a time of reduced demand because of the coronavirus pandemic. After more than a year of an uneasy collaboration to limit supply and try to keep prices up, Saudi Arabia and Russia started a price war earlier this month, flooding the market with their cheap oil that kicked off a race to the bottom in terms of oil prices. Canadian oilsands oil always trades at a discount to lighter blends, such as Brent and WTI, because it is more difficult to transport and process. So the oversupply has hit the price of WCS even more than other types of oil.
Coronavirus causes ConocoPhillips to temporarily cancel flights for workers to North Slope fields - ConocoPhillips has canceled flights for hundreds of workers to the North Slope for the next two weeks to prevent the spread of COVID-19. The company is asking critical personnel who produce oil from the company’s North Slope fields to stay on for an extra multiweek rotation, ConocoPhillips said in a statement sent Tuesday to contractors and employees. The statement said that effective immediately, “we are asking all business-critical North Slope personnel supporting ConocoPhillips operations (both contractor and ConocoPhillips employees) to extend their shift by two weeks.” “All flights north for regularly scheduled shift changes have been canceled for the next two weeks,” the statement said. "We will be working to arrange transportation off the Slope for those who cannot extend their stay. “Please note that there are no confirmed cases of COVID-19 on the North Slope at this time,” the statement said.
Majors look to store jet fuel at sea as air travel drastically curbed - (Reuters) - Major oil companies including BP and Shell are preparing to take the rare step of storing jet fuel at sea as the coronavirus outbreak disrupts airline activity globally, while refiners are shifting to diesel because of the poor margins associated with jet fuel production. Jet fuel demand has cratered as airlines suspend flights due to the coronavirus pandemic, which globally has infected more than 204,000 people and killed 8,700, prompting travel restrictions from governments around the world, including the United States. Market participants and refiners have had to scramble to adjust to incredibly low prices. Storing jet fuel at sea, however, is something of a last resort. The product is sensitive to contamination and degrades more quickly than other refined fuels and especially crude oil, so after a few months, it no longer can be used for aviation, according to analysts. “The industry generally expects products will be used within three months of being produced,” said George Hoekstra, an independent consultant specializing in hydroprocessing technology. Gulf Coast jet cash prices were at 26.50 cents per gallon below futures, the lowest seasonally since at least 2011, the earliest data available, Refinitiv Eikon data showed.
Volunteers join fight against Baltic Sea oil spills in Latvia --The World Wildlife Federation in Latvia is contacting potential volunteers to help in the event of oil spills in Latvian waters, according to a Latvian Radio broadcast on March 16.Until now accidents have been very small, but intense shipping traffic in the Baltic Sea presents future risks should an accidental spill occur. According to WWF specialist Magda Jentgen, one project would assist Naval Forces and state agency rapid response, and another would draft a contingency plan for aiding animals. Both would require the assistance of volunteers.“It's essential to engage volunteers in coastal oil cleanup. Moreover, cleaning the oil off of birds is a time-consuming process. Volunteers need to be instructed and need to be capable of assisting veterinarians in a crisis situation,” said Jentgen. Since March 50 volunteers have registered, but she said a larger accident would require several shifts of people.“At this time we’re compiling a list of volunteers, and then we plan to secure financing for training. These people will have the know-how to capture birds and how to clean wounded birds,” said Jentgen.One such accident occurred near Estonia in 2006, injuring ten to fifteen thousand birds. Only sixty were saved and returned to their natural habitat. Rotterdam has experienced an even bigger spill that required more than a year to clean up.Ilze Jēce is one of the volunteers with years of experience in the non governmental sector. “We don’t have the kind of civil society volunteering traditions that the US and other Western countries have. There people are accustomed to university programs with volunteering requirements and civil society work as a hobby in their free time. One-time help in a crisis is easier than planning for long-term involvement. That’s more difficult,” she explained.
European outright refined products sink to fresh multi-year lows on bearish cocktail | S&P Global Platts — European refined product markets on Monday fell to their lowest levels in three years, and for some considerably more, as the Russia-Saudi price war and coronavirus concerns weighed heavily on demand. Products took their lead from crude. S&P Global Platts assessed Dated Brent at $27.945/b Monday, down $3.90/b on the day. A price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia continues and OPEC+ canceled a meeting scheduled for Wednesday, signaling the likelihood that the global crude market will be flooded with crude come April. Saudi Arabia slashed its official selling prices last week; in response, others such as Abu Dhabi's ADNOC, Iraq's SOMO and Kuwait's KPC all reduced their OSPs and many market participants expect Nigerian OSPs to follow suit. The propane CIF NWE large cargo fell to $194.25/mt Monday, the lowest flat price since March 2002 when the market was assessed at $190.50/mt. Similarly, the butane CIF NWE large cargo was assessed at $185.00/mt, the lowest value since May 2003. In the Mediterranean, the situation is similar to Northwest Europe, with the FOB Lavera coasters assessed at $242/mt, the lowest level since August 2003, when the market was assessed at $240/mt. The spread of COVID-19 has bought a degree of uncertainty to the LPG market in Europe as petrochemical crackers consider production cuts and seasonal heating demand begins to subside moving into springtime. Platts Naphtha CIF NWE cargo was assessed at $209/mt Monday, down $47/mt since Friday and the lowest in 17 years, according to Platts data. European naphtha has lost about 30% in value in a week and 50% since the beginning of the month, on decreased demand for gasoline blending and the uncertainty related to the coronavirus pandemic and global economy, sources said. The physical Platts gasoline Eurobob FOB basis AR barge flat price also saw a record low Monday on an extreme pressure sell-off as nations continue to adopt measures that will curb driving demand. Platts Gasoline Eurobob barge was assessed at $185.50/mt, down from $231.75/mt Friday. FOB ARA barges of ultra-low sulphur diesel slumped $30/mt on the day to a four-year low of $306.75/mt Monday. This is the lowest price of ULSD barges since February 25, 2016, when they were assessed at $304.25/mt, Platts data shows. "There is less spot demand for diesel cargoes in Europe but I haven't seen any cargo getting cancelled; there is a contango so that helps" a trader said Tuesday, referring to storage demand that appeared last week amid the deepening contango in the paper market. "People will do everything they can to put as much jet into diesel as possible." The market is in a widening contango and the outlook is bearish as more countries recommend social distancing and an increasing numbers apply a lockdown on both sides of the Atlantic, which has started to dent demand for the road fuel.
Victoria bans fracking for good, but quietly lifts onshore gas exploration ban -Amid coronavirus chaos, the Victorian government announced its decision earlier this week to lift the ban on onshore gas exploration, but also to make the temporary state-wide ban on fracking permanent.This decision was made three years after aninvestigation foundgas reserves in the state could be extracted without any environmental impacts, and new laws will be introduced to parliament for drilling to start in July next year.The state government first introduced the moratorium(temporary ban) on onshore conventional and unconventional gas production in 2017, enshrined in theMineral Resources (Sustainable Development) Act 1990. It effectively made it an offence to either conduct coal seam gas exploration or hydraulic fracturing (fracking) until June 2020.The ban was originally imposed amid strong concerns about the environmental, climate and social impacts of onshore gas expansion. But lifting the ban to allow conventional gas exploration while banning fracking and unconventional gas (coal seam gas), doesn't remove these concerns. The new laws seek to do two things: lift the ban on conventional onshore gas production, and to entrench a ban on fracking and coal seam gas exploration into the state constitution.The government has stated it wants to make it difficult for future governments to remove the fracking ban. But this is highly unlikely to be legally effective. Unlike the federal constitution, the Victorian constitution is an ordinary act, and so it can be amended by another legal act.The only way entrenching an amendment in the state constitution so that it is permanent and unchangeable is if it relates to the operation and procedure of parliament. And fracking does not do this. This raises the spectre of a future government removing the fracking ban in line with an accelerating onshore gas framework.
The effects of the oil spill on the Hangar eliminate the clock -in emergency Mode because of spilled diesel fuel on the Hangar in motiginsky district of withdrawn. “News. Krasnoyarsk” has received official comment from representatives of the company “Krasnoyarsknefteproduct”.we will Remind, earlier it was reported that due to leakage in the fuel base in the Fish to the surface of the river fell about a hundred tons of oil products. The cause of the accident was the rupture of the pipe. The spill occurred in the area of 8 thousand square meters. In this place the Hangar is still covered with ice. A large part (about 7,5 thousand sq. metres) of snow already cleaned. currently, the remains of diesel fuel collected from the ice of the river using sorbents. Work is being done around the clock. They involve about a hundred people.
Shell reports 41% rise in onshore Nigeria oil spills (Reuters) - Royal Dutch Shell’s onshore Nigeria subsidiary saw a 41% rise in the number of crude oil spills due to theft or pipeline sabotage in 2019, the group said in its annual report. Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria (SPDC) also recorded a rise in the volume of oil spilt in the Niger Delta as a result of illegal activity to 2,000 tonnes in 2019 from 1,600 tonnes a year earlier. Of a total 164 SPDC spills of more than 100 kilograms in the delta, 157 were due to theft and sabotage, Shell said. That compared with 111 spills due to sabotage in 2018. SPDC is a joint venture of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), which holds a 55% stake, Shell, its operator, with 30%, France’s Total with 10% and Italy’s Eni with 5%. It produces around 1 million barrels of oil per day and operates more than 6,000 kilometres of pipelines in the delta.
Gas Explosion in Nigeria Leaves 15 Dead, More Than 50 Buildings Damaged - More than 50 buildings were damaged in the blast, National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) acting coordinator in Lagos Ibrahim Farinloye told reporters, as The Vanguard reported. One of the buildings was the Bethlehem Girls College, and at least 60 injured students were taken to a hospital for treatment. "The fire started with smoke," one eyewitness told Reuters. "The smoke was coming up and later we heard a sound ... and some houses collapsed even the roofs."More than 50 buildings were damaged in the blast, National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) acting coordinator in Lagos Ibrahim Farinloye told reporters, as The Vanguard reported. One of the buildings was the Bethlehem Girls College, and at least 60 injured students were taken to a hospital for treatment."The fire started with smoke," one eyewitness told Reuters. "The smoke was coming up and later we heard a sound ... and some houses collapsed even the roofs."The explosion occurred in Abule Ado area of Lagos, but the blast was so loud it could be heard almost all across Lagos state, Pulse TV reported.It occurred around 9 a.m., and one family of four was killed in the blast returning from church, according to The Vanguard. The explosion was sparked when a truck hit some gas cylinders at a gas processing plant near a pipeline owned by the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), the state-owned company told Reuters. "The resulting fire later spread to the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) oil pipeline passing through the area even though the pipeline has been shut down as a precautionary measure. "The fire was eventually extinguished at 3:30 p.m. through the combined efforts of officials of the Lagos State Fire Service, Federal Fire Service, and Nigerian Navy Fire Tender." The fire also damaged the pipeline, but NNPC said that the pipeline shutdown would not impact oil delivery to the rest of the state, according to Reuters. Pipeline explosions are a recurring danger in Nigeria, where they are usually caused by attempts to steal from the pipelines. One such fire killed 60 people in 2018. Nigeria is Africa's leading producer and exporter of oil, but it has paid a price for its fossil fuel extraction. In the Niger Delta, that extraction has led to oil spills of 40 million liters (approximately 10.6 million liquid gallons) every year, The Guardian reported. This has polluted air and water and harmed residents' health.
Oil supply surge and crumbling demand could overwhelm global storage – "An OPEC+ supply surge and crumbling oil demand are leading to concerns about a surplus that could overwhelm global storage," BofA Global Research said in a note this morning . The number of companies announcing spending and workforce cutbacks keeps growing.
- This morning, the huge U.S. producer ConocoPhillips said it would cut $700 million from its planned capital spending this year and scale back its share buy-back program.
- Oilfield services giant Halliburton is furloughing about 3,500 employees in Houston as oil producers slow operations, per Reuters.
- "The sudden crash in global oil prices has prompted Australian oil and gas producer Oil Search to cancel sale talks and slash spending by up to $675 million by shelving projects around the world," the Sydney Morning Herald reports.
- Argus Media's Ben Winkley, via Twitter, tallies several more announcements as they come "thick and fast."
Analysts are racing to update their estimates of how much global oil demand is cratering. Rystad Energy this morning sharply revised their projections from a week ago. They now see year-over-year demand dropping 2.8 million barrels per day, which would be a 2.8% decline. A week ago they were projecting only a 600,000 barrel per day full-year drop. "At the moment we expect the month of April to take the biggest hit, with demand for oil falling by as much as 11 million bpd year on year," the consultancy notes. ExxonMobil, citing an "unprecedented environment," said last night that it plans to "significantly" cut spending in light of the coronavirus and the collapse in oil prices. The oil giant's announcement is the latest sign of how deeply the upended market is affecting the sector.
Asian appetite for petroleum storage, reserves will not save global oil prices — China's insatiable appetite for hoarding oil reserves or the expansive independent petroleum storage capacity from Singapore to South Korea will not be enough to absorb the coming flood of crude and refined products, which threatens to push oil prices even lower. For decades, Asia's petroleum storage has expanded in the form of underground salt caverns, independent tank farms, operational storage for mega refineries and even oil in pipelines by key oil companies, national oil companies and commodity trading houses alike. This expansion had a big role in absorbing global oil shocks in the past, such as the 2015-2016 oil downturn when global inventories hit a peak of 5.3 billion barrels in late 2016, according to industry estimates, forcing OPEC to make production cuts to help ease the glut. But the current market is seeing a rare simultaneous instance of a global supply shock, due to the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, and a demand shock, due to the coronavirus pandemic, creating an unprecedented oil surplus that stretches storage capability to its limits. The initial surplus will be seen in refined products as refineries maximize margins on low crude prices. But there is not much room left after oil companies and traders hoarded compliant fuels in anticipation of the International Maritime Organization's global low sulfur marine fuel requirements, that took effect January 1. As 2020 rolled in, global shipping was hit by the coronavirus outbreak and demand never materialized, leaving tanks full. "We saw a big movement of storage towards the end of last year getting ready for January 1st. That storage is still in play,"
Oil’s big storage problem - Back in 2008 the economy suffered from massive oil demand destruction. The result was an epic contango structure in the futures curve which encouraged traders to charter tanks to store oil. A contango (the opposite of backwardation) manifests whenever the price of commodities in futures contracts is higher than the cash price of commodities available today. This allows traders to profit from buying cheap oil today and selling it on the futures market at a premium tomorrow. As long as the cost of storage is lower than the profit generated by the trade, the market structure encourages hoarding. In 2008 the contango got so big (it was known as the super-contango) the economy ran out of spare capacity in on-the-ground facilities to store it in. But the profitability of the contango trade was so huge it actually paid to charter tankers explicitly just for the purpose of storing oil. While it’s tempting to say the same thing will happen this time round, it might well not. The problem the sector is now facing is that there will probably not be enough physical storage capacity to park all the unneeded global oil supply for the duration of this crisis. If that’s true, some fields may have to be shut down irrespective of what Opec targets dictate. Not doing so would pose an environmental disaster, otherwise. But again it’s not as easy as just turning off the tap. Some fields are much less capable of adjusting their pump rates than others. This is especially true of Russian fields, where temporary shutdowns pose the risk of them never being able to be revived at the same rates again. People are now talking about a $10 target for WTI. We’d argue that in a scenario where there’s literally nowhere to put oil, it’s not inconceivable prices could go negative. Such rates would indicate that permanent supply destruction -- which might never be brought back again -- was now going on. Which would be a big problem for the world if the same rate of economic activity as before was returned to post Covid-19.
The Countries Hit Hardest By The Oil Price War -- The recent plunge in oil prices has put the financially ravaged U.S. shale industry in the spotlight over the past week, but the market downturn will blow a hole in the budgets of oil-producing countries as well. Credit ratings agency Fitch said that a wave of sovereign downgrades could be forthcoming if oil prices remain at low levels. “Countries that are in a somewhat vulnerable external position and have a fixed exchange rate are of course particularly vulnerable,” Jan Friederich, a Middle East and Africa sovereign analyst with Fitch, told Reuters. Russia has stated that it can withstand oil prices in the range of $25 to $30 per barrel for six to ten years. Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak went further,declaring that Russian oil companies will remain competitive “at any forecast price level.” Russia has a few things working in its favor, such as a flexible exchange rate that allows oil firms to earn dollars but pay expenses in rubles. A declining oil price tends to be offset somewhat by a weaker local currency.In that context, Saudi Arabia is less flexible, needing to shell out foreign exchange to prop up its fixed exchange rate. The Saudi government can do that for a long time, but not forever. In addition, while Saudi Arabia has some of the lowest oil production costs on the planet, the budget requires oil prices in the mid-$80s per barrel to break even. Riyadh apparently believes it can force out high-cost producers before the pressure on its own finances becomes too great to bear.But smaller oil-producing countries with fixed exchange rates could be in more trouble. Nigeria, for instance, does not have the deep pockets of Saudi Arabia. It too has to defend a fixed exchange rate, and during the last market downturn (2014-2016), the government imposed currency controls to stop the outflow of dollars. Today, only a week after the OPEC+ collapse, there are already signs of ashortage of dollars in Nigeria.There are other countries at risk, including Iraq, Oman, Angola, Suriname and Gabon, according to Fitch. None of the Gulf Arab states can balance their budgets with oil at $40 per barrel or lower, according to S&P and Reuters.Mexico’s Pemex may have shielded itself somewhat from a rather large hedging program, but the state-owned oil firm has been at the precipice of having its credit rating downgraded further for quite some time. Last year, Fitch put Pemex into junk territory, but additional downgrades would trigger even more capital flight. Mexico also has the unfortunate reality of having its economy depend on the U.S., which is about to go into a deep freeze of mass coronavirus quarantines.
Saudi Arabia floods markets with $25 oil as Russia fight escalates - (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia is flooding markets with oil at prices as low as $25 per barrel, specifically targeting big refiners of Russian oil in Europe and Asia, in an escalation of its fight with Moscow for market share, five trading sources said on Friday. The sources, from oil majors and refiners which process crude in Europe, said Saudi state oil company Aramco told them it would supply all requested additional volumes in April. Sources previously told Reuters Saudi Arabia is also seeking to replace Russian oil with Chinese and Indian buyers, although not all refiners received volumes they had asked for. Tanker rates soared as Saudi Arabia provisionally chartered around 31 supertankers to take extra oil, including to the United States, where Russian oil is usually less in demand. Oil prices have halved since the start of the year because demand has been hit by the coronavirus outbreak and after Russia and OPEC failed to reach a new deal on supply cuts. Moscow refused to support new deeper cuts, saying the impact from the virus could be much worse than thought, and Riyadh retaliated by opening its taps and pledging to pump record volumes on to the market. Russia has so far said it is not planning to come back to the negotiating table despite feeling the pressure from the extraordinary Saudi moves.
US crude falls below $30 as Fed move fails to calm markets - U.S. crude fell below $30 on Monday as emergency rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve and its global counterparts failed to tame markets and China’s factory output plunged at the sharpest pace in 30 years amid the spread of coronavirus. Brent crude was down $2.89, or 8.5%, to $30.96 a barrel by 1012 GMT. The front-month price had risen $1 earlier in the session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was at $29.94, down $1.79 or 5.6%. To combat the economic fallout of the pandemic, the Fed on Sunday cut its key rate to near zero, triggering an unscheduled easing by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to a record low as markets in Asia opened for trading this week. The Bank of Japan later stepped in by easing monetary policy further in an emergency meeting. However, the measures failed to calm the investors, and stock markets weakened again. “It’s becoming evident that the major central banks across the globe are using all their available tools to prevent a crisis, but it seems the fear of the pandemic is taking control of investors,” said Hussein Sayed, chief market strategist at FXTM. Meanwhile, China’s industrial output fell by a much larger than expected 13.5% in January-February from the same period a year earlier, the weakest reading since January 1990 when Reuters records began. Brent’s premium to WTI is close to its narrowest since 2016, making U.S. crude oil uncompetitive in international markets. “The relative weakness in Brent shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise, given the severity of the breakout across Europe,”
Oil Collapse Deepens on Widening Virus Measures - -- Oil’s spectacular collapse deepened as widening global efforts to fight the spread of the coronavirus looked set to trigger the most severe contraction in annual oil demand in history. Futures tumbled by more than 6% after losing a quarter of their value last week -- the largest drop since 2008. Even a massive emergency move by the U.S. Federal Reserve to cushion the world’s biggest economy just added to the fear gripping markets, with New York crude at one point dropping below $30 a barrel. Gasoline prices collapsed in the U.S. The market is being pushed deeper into turmoil by unprecedented simultaneous demand and supply shocks. Forecasts for global oil use are being cut dramatically as government measures to contain the spread of the pandemic restrict the movement of people and throw supply chains into chaos. At the same time, giant producers are embarking on a destructive price war after the disintegration of the OPEC+ alliance that’s unleashing a flood of supply. “Global financial markets are being rattled by the growing severity of the coronavirus and at the same time spooked by the enormity of the stimulus measures to combat it,” said Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights in Singapore. “If the pandemic continues to worsen across the globe, oil will head lower. If it worsens in the U.S., belt up for an apocalypse.” Oil traders, executives, hedge fund managers and consultants are revising down their estimates for global oil demand. The growing fear is that consumption, which averaged just over 100 million barrels a day in 2019, may contract by the most ever this year. That would easily outstrip the loss of almost 1 million barrels a day in 2009 and even surpass the 2.65 million barrels registered in 1980, when the world economy crashed after the second oil crisis. Brent crude tumbled as much as 6.6% to $31.63 a barrel before trading 5.9% lower at $31.87 as of 6:58 a.m. in London. Futures fell 25% last week, the most since December 2008. West Texas Intermediate slid 4.2% to $30.40 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after earlier dropping as low as $29.75. Travel restrictions across the globe tightened further over the weekend, with the U.S. extending its travel ban to include Britain and Ireland. Australia said anyone entering the country must self-isolate for two weeks, Spain imposed a lockdown and France closed cafes and restaurants. New York City limited restaurants and bars to takeout and delivery service, and shut nightclubs, movie theaters and concert venues.
Oil drops 10% at the low, breaking below $29 as demand evaporates - Oil prices slid more than 10% at the low on Monday as the acceleration in coronavirus cases worldwide, which is bringing travel and business to a standstill, further dents global demand for crude. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped $1.66, or 5.2%, to trade at $30.07 per barrel. Earlier in the session WTI dropped more than 10% to hit a session low of $28.03 per barrel. International benchmark Brent crude fell 9.4%, or $3.22, to $30.66. Earlier Brent dropped more than 12% to $29.74 per barrel, its lowest level since at least Feb. 2016. “The demand drop unfolding is like nothing anyone has ever witnessed,” Simmons Energy analyst Pearce Hammond said in a note to clients Sunday. Oil is coming off what Hammond called a “horrific week” for the energy market. Both contracts posted their worst week since the financial crisis after dropping more than 23%, although prices did get a temporary boost Friday evening following President Donald Trump’s call to fill the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve. “Oil prices have reacted extremely negatively and we believe ... that we have not seen the bottom of the oil price just yet,” Rystad Energy’s head of oil markets Bjoernar Tonhaugen said. “The potential loss of demand in March-April may dwarf anything the World has ever seen, just when OPEC+ producers open the floodgates of new supply to the market,” he added. Oil continues to be hit on both the demand and supply side. The coronavirus outbreak has led to softer demand for crude as people cut back on travel, for example, while a breakdown in OPEC talks means there could soon be a supply glut as Saudi Arabia gets set to ramp up production to a record 13 million barrels per day. The move lower comes even after President Trump said Friday that the Department of Energy would purchase crude oil for the SPR in a bid to prop up prices.
As oil prices tank, BP CFO warns demand could be negative in 2020 - Demand for oil will likely be negative in 2020, adding further downward pressure to plummeting prices, according to BP CFO Brian Gilvary. Around the time of its earnings report in early February, the energy giant anticipated that demand would weaken by around 300,000 to 500,000 barrels a day. But on Monday, Gilvary told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe”: “If you ask me that question today, it is more like flat demand year-on-year, maybe even negative demand - we will probably likely see negative demand this year.” This would mean that demand for oil actually contracts this year — a very rare occurrence — rather than just growing at a slower rate than previously expected. The combination of an unfolding price war between oil production giants Russia and Saudi Arabia and concern over a potential demand shock from the global coronavirus pandemic have hammered oil prices in recent weeks. International benchmark Brent crude was trading down 9.3% at around $30.70 per barrel on Monday afternoon while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dipped below $30 a barrel to $29.50, down 6.8%. So far this year, Brent and WTI are down 53.8% and 52% respectively. Gilvary suggested that activity beyond this year would depend on what “the new normal” becomes for businesses. “We have got a demand side shock and then you also have the combined issue of a significant amount of oil now coming on the market in April, so the direction of the oil price can only go in one direction, and that is down,” he said.
Oil prices could hit teens in coming weeks as markets crater over coronavirus and price war - An end to the oil price plunge is nowhere in sight, energy experts say, as futures of international benchmark Brent crude fell below $30 a barrel Monday for the first time since 2016. That’s a stunning 54% drop year-to-date. “Oil could easily be in the teens at the bottom. Could even be low teens at the lowest,” Abhi Rajendran, director of research at Energy Intelligence, told CNBC on Monday. “The main driver is for, a week or two, we could have global market oversupply of over 10 million barrels per day (bpd). Which is insane and unprecedented.” Energy stocks have been hammered as demand plummets amid the escalating coronavirus crisis, but moves by state actors to unleash a flood of supply are driving them decisively into the ground. Saudi Arabia has slashed its oil prices to buyers and will be maxing out its production, as will Russia, as the two major producers throw themselves into an all-out price war to fight for greater market share. “The last time there was a global surplus of this magnitude was never,” Jim Burkhard, vice president and head of oil markets at IHS Markit, wrote in a note Monday, predicting an oil demand contraction of up to 10 million bpd for March and April. “Prior to this, the largest six-month global surplus this century was 360 million barrels. What is coming will be twice that or more.”
Goldman slashes oil forecast, sees US crude at $22 per barrel - Goldman Sachs slashed its oil forecast on Tuesday as the COVID-19 outbreak continues to pressure demand. “Demand losses across the complex are now unprecedented,” Goldman’s global head of commodities research Jeffrey Currie wrote in a note to clients Tuesday. The firm said that oil use has fallen by eight million barrels per day as the coronavirus has led to a near standstill in travel, among other things. Goldman now sees U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude and international benchmark Brent crude both averaging $20 per barrel in the second quarter. Earlier on Tuesday the firm said WTI would average $22, before revising the forecast to $20 just a few hours later. Goldman has cut estimates multiple times in the last few weeks. The firm previously lowered its target for WTI to $29 and Brent to $30 after the breakdown in OPEC talks earlier in March. WTI settled at $28.70 on Monday, so the new target implies an additional 30% downside ahead. This would be on top of WTI’s 53% drop this year. Goldman’s Brent target is 33% below the contract’s Monday settle of $30.05. The drop in demand comes as powerhouse producers Saudi Arabia and Russia get set to ramp up production beginning April 1, which is when the OPEC+ production cuts currently in place expire. The firm said that the sudden drop-off in demand, which began in January when the virus started hitting Chinese fuel demand, aided the price war that’s broken out between OPEC and its allies, which includes Russia. Goldman said that the virus will likely lead to far worse outcomes than previously thought — even below estimates from just a month ago — for both the commodities and equity market from just last month. On Sunday, Jan Hatzius, Goldman’s chief economist, lowered his first-quarter GDP growth forecast to zero from 0.7%.. The economist also sees a 5% contraction in the second quarter, followed by a sharp snapback for the remainder of the year. But unlike equities, which the firm believes will swiftly rebound, oil will likely stay lower for longer.
Oil prices jump as recent sharp falls draw investors - Oil drops 6% breaking below $27 as recession fears, pump war weigh -Oil dropped more than 6% to multi-year lows on Tuesday, and analysts said more declines may follow as the coronavirus pandemic hits demand and Saudi Arabia and Russia battle for market share. Countries including the United States and Canada, along with nations in Europe and Asia, are taking unprecedented steps to contain the virus, curbing demand for crude and products such as gasoline and jet fuel. Brent crude fell 98 cents, or 3.2% to trade at $29.07 per barrel, having earlier touched $31.25. On Monday it sank to $29.45, the lowest since January 2016. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude reversed all of an earlier 4.7% gain to shed $1.75, or 6.1%, and close at $26.95 per barrel, its lowest level since Feb. 2016. “Unfortunately for the bulls, we believe we have not seen the worst of the price rout yet,” said Bjornar Tonhaguen of Rystad Energy.” “The market will soon come to realize that the it may be facing one of the largest supply surpluses in modern oil market history in April.” U.S. President Donald Trump warned on Monday that the United States may be heading into recession as economic activity across the globe slowed and stock markets tumbled. The United States has said it will take advantage of low oil prices to fill its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Other countries and companies are planning similar measures to fill storage tanks.
Oil mixed after slipping to lowest since early 2016 amid coronavirus chaos - Oil prices steadied early on Wednesday after sliding to their lowest in four years, sapped by fears for fuel demand and the global economy amid travel and social lockdowns triggered by the coronavirus epidemic in a number of countries around the world. Brent crude was up 8 cents, or 0.3%, at $28.81 a barrel by 0029 GMT, after falling earlier to $28.40, the lowest since early 2016. The international benchmark fell 4.3% on Tuesday. U.S. crude was down 2 cents at $26.93 a barrel, after falling to as low as $26.20, also the lowest in four years. West Texas Intermediate fell 6% on Tuesday. A fall in U.S. inventories of crude, gasoline and distillates, as reported by an industry group, provided some support to prices, but the demand outlook remains grim amid a price war among major producers. In efforts to support economies, the world’s richest nations prepared to unleash trillions of dollars of spending to lessen the fallout from the coronavirus outbreak, as well as imposing social restrictions not seen since World War Two. Meanwhile, Virgin Australia became the latest airline to shut down its international network with the suspension of all international flights, while Prime Minister Scott Morrison warned that the situation could last six months or more. Elsewhere, Iraq’s oil minister pleaded for an emergency meeting between members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC producers to discuss immediate action to help balance the oil market.
Oil prices lowest since 2003 - U.S. oil prices reached their lowest point since 2003 on Wednesday as the coronavirus has reduced demand in countries around the world. The prices fell for a third session, with U.S. crude Clc1 reaching $25.06 per barrel, the lowest prices since late April 2003. As of 11:35 GMT, U.S. crude Clc1 hit $1.51 cents or 5.6 percent at $25.44 per barrel, Reuters reported. The last time the prices were that low, the U.S. had recently invaded Iraq and China was rising in the global economy, sparking an increase in global oil consumption to record levels, Reuters noted. Meanwhile, Brent crude LCOc1 traded down 95 cents at $27.78 a barrel after reaching $27.56, the lowest point since early 2016. “The oil demand collapse from the spreading coronavirus looks increasingly sharp,” Goldman Sachs said in a note obtained by Reuters. Goldman Sachs projected in the note that Brent crude would decrease to as much as $20 in the second quarter, which the prices have not seen since early 2002. The bank predicted that the global demand would decrease 8 million barrels per day by late March and 1.1 million per day annually, which would be a new record, according to Reuters. Consultant firm Rystad Energy anticipated a drop of 2.8 million barrels per day around the world in 2020. “To put the number into context, last week we projected a decrease of just 600,000 barrels,” Rystad said, according to Reuters. Iraq’s oil minister is requesting an emergency meeting between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC oil producers to take action to stabilize the market. Russia and Saudi Arabia’s battle for market shares has also put additional pressure on the market, Reuters noted. .
Oil Prices Crash, Settle At 18-year Low --- Crude oil prices crashed to their lowest level in about eighteen years on Wednesday as growing worries about an imminent recession due to the coronavirus outbreak raised concerns about global energy demand. A price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia following disagreement about production cuts in the recent concluded OPEC+ meeting is adding to the woes in the oil market. West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for April ended down $6.58, or 24%, at $20.37 a barrel, the lowest settlement price since February 2002. The contract fell to a low of $20.06 a barrel in the session. Today's fall is the second biggest single-day drop for crude oil futures, after the about 33% tumble recorded on January 17, 1991. Brent Crude futures were down by about $4.20, or over 14%, when the contract fell to a low of $24.53 in the session. On Tuesday, WTI Crude oil futures for April ended down $1.75, or about 6.1%, at $26.95 a barrel, the lowest settlement price since February 2016. Data released by the Energy Information Administration this morning showed oil inventories in the U.S. rose by 1.9 million barrels in the week ended March 13, compared with expectations for a build of about 3.3 million barrels. Gasoline inventories were down by 6.2 million barrels, while distillate stockpilesfell by 2.9 million barrels in the week. The American Petroleum Institute reported on Tueday that crude oil inventories in the U.S. saw a decrease of 421,000 barrels in the week ending March 13. With major economies going into the lockdown mode, concerns about the outlook for energy demand continue to rise by the day. "Demand losses across the complex are now unprecedented," said Jeffrey Currie, Goldman's global head of commodities research in a report. Goldman Sachs sees U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude averaging $20 per barrel in the second quarter with international benchmark Brent crude at $20 per barrel.
An oil price war is here to stay, analysts warn — even as prices tumble to nearly two-decade lows - An oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia will most likely accumulate over the course of the year, energy analysts have told CNBC, with no end in sight until 2021 at the earliest. International benchmark Brent crude traded at $26.01 Wednesday, down around 9%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $22.73, more than 15% lower. Brent fell to its lowest level since September 26, 2003 on Wednesday, while WTI slumped to lows not seen since March 6, 2002. It comes as the coronavirus continues to spread worldwide and amid an ongoing price war between OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia and non-OPEC leader Russia. Analysts at Eurasia Group believe the price war between Riyadh and Moscow is likely to last throughout 2020. “The Gulf countries see Moscow as an important power that can play a broader security role in the region over the long term. The relationship between Mohammad bin Salman and President Vladimir Putin probably took a hit but the strategic imperatives have not changed,” analysts at the risk consultancy said in a research note. “Extensive pain from the oil price shock will accumulate over the course of 2020 and create the necessary conditions for negotiations, compromise, and probably a new production restraint agreement,” they added. “Saudi policy will now revolve around inflicting pain on other producers over the short term, but its long term objective is to be the predominant market manager and price setter,” analysts at Eurasia Group said.Aramco plans to increase its output to 12.3 million barrels per day (b/d) from April, with the United Arab Emirates also pledging to raise output from next month. “The Saudis have a potent weapon at their disposal, namely spare production capacity,” Stephen Brennock, oil analyst at PVM Oil Associates, said in a research note. “As the long-time purveyor of global spare capacity, Saudi Arabia is reopening the oil spigots after having done most of the heavy lifting in curbing supply.” “Put simply, the Saudis are in for the long haul,” Brennock said.
Oil jumps 13%, rebounding from Wednesday’s steep losses - Oil prices rose more than 10% on Thursday after a three-day sell off drove them to their lowest levels in almost two decades as demand plummeted due to the coronavirus and supplies surged in a fight for market share between Russia and Saudi Arabia. Benchmark Brent, which has lost half its value in less than two weeks, was offered some respite as investors across financial markets assessed the impact of massive central bank stimulus. Brent crude jumped $1.29, or 5.1%, to $26.16 per barrel, after plunging to $24.52 on Wednesday, its lowest level since 2003. U.S. crude gained $2.63, or 12.9%, to trade at $23.00 per barrel, after dropping nearly 25% in the previous session to an 18-year low. But analysts said gains were likely to be temporary, as tumbling demand due to the coronavirus outbreak was compounded by the collapse this month of a deal on supply curbs between OPEC and other producers. Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which kicked off a price war with Russia that sent prices into tailspin, is planning to keep pumping at a record rate of 12.3 million barrels per day (bpd) for months. “From April 1, about 4 million bpd could flood the markets, potentially pushing down crude oil prices into the teens,” Jefferies said in a note. “Unless somebody intervenes, no oil producer benefits from the current environment.” U.S. senators on Wednesday upped the pressure on Saudi Arabia and Russia to stop the price war and held talks with the kingdom’s envoy to Washington. They urged President Donald Trump to impose an embargo on oil from the two countries. But analysts have still been slashing growth forecasts for China, where the disease erupted, to the lowest levels in decades. Meanwhile, the spread of the virus elsewhere is showing no sign of abating, with governments resorting to lockdowns in a bid to contain the disease, hammering economies and raising prospects for a global recession.
Oil Soars 24% In Biggest One-Day Surge On Record - One day after oil crashed by a near record 25%, a move which made some sense in light of the historic dollar short squeeze and surge to all time highs in the Bloomberg dollar index, today oil has rebounded violently, and after rising as much as 26%, WTI settled up $4.85 at $25.22, or 23.81% higher...... its biggest one day move on record!There was no actual catalyst, although some oil traders cited a rogue rumor that emerged just before the big spike according to which "Putin has instructed Novak to engage the #Saudis to resume #OPEC+ supply cuts."#Oil prices are green again. Why? Rumors #Putin has instructed Novak to engage the #Saudis to resume #OPEC+ supply cuts. DoE announced tender for 30 million barrels #SPR stocks. All from small & mid sized #American producers.#OOTT pic.twitter.com/29N3oU0kF3
However, that was merely a regurgitation of a rumor that hit one day earlier.Remarkably, today's record surge took place even as the dollar index continued to soar, suggesting the move was most likely a counter-trend short squeeze. That said, putting the move in context, despite today's record surge, oil is still down 17% for the week.
Oil rallies, with U.S. prices scoring their biggest daily percentage climb on record - Oil prices bounced off their lowest levels in 20 years on Thursday, with U.S. prices scoring their largest one-day percentage climb on record,Investors absorbed news of a plethora of central bank and government support measures to combat the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, Russia indicated it would like to see higher prices, and the Trump administration reportedly said it may intervene in oil-price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia.Thursday’s climb for oil is “more symbolic of the volatility that should continue to rattle global markets, rather than a clear signal that prices are ready for a sustained rebound of recent lows,” said Robbie Fraser, senior commodity analyst at Schneider Electric. The front-month April West Texas Intermediate crude contract, the U.S. benchmark, rose $4.85, or 23.8%, to settle at $25.22 a barrel. That was the largest one-day, front-month percentage climb on record based on data going back to March 1983, according to Dow Jones Market Data.On Wednesday, the WTI contract plunged more than 24%, to settle at $20.37 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, for the lowest finish since Feb. 20, 2002. Adjusted for inflation, oil traded around the lowest level since March 1999, according to Dow Jones Market Data.Global benchmark May Brent crude rose $3.59, or 14.4%, to $28.47 a barrel. On Wednesday, the contract fell $3.85, or over 13%, to finish at $24.88 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, for its lowest settlement since May 8, 2003.The move for oil “comes as central banks around the world continue to offer major supportive measures to global financial markets, albeit with sometimes limited initial market reaction,” said Fraser.The Federal Reserve late Wednesday announced more moves to stabilize U.S. financial markets rocked by the sudden pullback of economic activity stemming from the deadly coronavirus outbreak. The Fed widened support to include money market mutual funds.
Oil price scores largest one-day percentage increase in the traded oil price in NYMEX history - Oil futures rallied Thursday, with U.S. prices up nearly 24%, to score their largest one-day percentage climb on record. Some of the increase could be traced to remarks by President Donald Trump that he might intervene in the Russian-Saudi production dispute, if it continues unabated. April West Texas Intermediate oil rose $4.85, or 23.8%, to settle $25.22/bbl on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That was the largest daily front-month contract percentage climb on record, based on data going back to March 1983, according to Dow Jones Market Data. WTI prices had settled Wednesday at their lowest rate, in constant dollars, since the Asian Financial Crisis of the late 1990s.Other energy prices continued their Thursday surge, in tune with the rebound in domestic WTI oil prices. The global benchmark Brent crude contract advanced $3.99 to $28.87/bbl. Natural gas futures were 4 cents higher, at $1.60 per 1 million BTU.Meanwhile, HighPoint Resources (HPR) jumped out to a more than 16% gain after the oil and gas producer Thursday said it was shelving all new drilling and completion activities following the recent plunge in crude oil prices. Highpoint has completed all of its existing wells and said that the moratorium on new drilling will not affect production volumes for the first half of 2020.Regarding another factor bolstering prices, the U.S. Department of Energy said on Thursday that it will buy up to 30 MMbbl of crude o il for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve by the end of June. This will be a first step in fulfilling President Trump’s directive to fill the emergency stockpile, to help domestic crude producers.
Crude oil spikes in best day ever – here's what could come next - Crude oil just had its best day ever, only a day after its third-worst drop in history. West Texas Intermediate jumped more than 23% to $25.22 a barrel on Thursday. However, it remains on track for its worst monthly decline on record as a supply glut and demand concerns keep oil investors on edge. Jeff Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, says selling across commodities has been indiscriminate. “I think we have more downside. When we look at the demand losses, they’re unprecedented — not only in oil but the entire commodity complex, and particularly those commodities that are more leveraged to this whole idea of self-isolation. Not only is oil down because we’re not moving around, but also things like beef that are leveraged to restaurant demand, they’re down. ... There’s another dynamic at play here that’s really became more important in commodities in the last, I would say, two to three days, which are liquidity constraints. And if you look at gold, a lot of people ask why is gold going down right now. One of the key reasons why gold is going down is because people are selling assets to raise cash. Paul Sankey, oil analyst at Mizuho, sees more trouble ahead for oil prices unless excess output is reined in. “It’s simply a question of when you don’t have enough available inventory capacity to offtake and that then the physical reality of oil, and having to deal with the sort of black viscous liquid that you need to put somewhere could conceivably take prices negative, particularly at the extremes of the chain, for example in Canada or maybe in North Dakota where you’re further away from markets. ... In my role as an analyst we’ve been trying to put pressure on Saudi, to be honest, because I think that adding oil in this market isn’t really what’s needed, to say the least. And that may recover things so we’ve been doing some fairly doomsday-type scenarios of what Q2 looks like if Saudi keeps pumping and if we continue to have a rolling shutdown of the United States of America, which is the biggest oil market in the world. At that point, you get to very low prices.” Harold Hamm, founder of Continental Resources, says he has faith in the federal agencies tasked with stabilizing markets. “The good thing about this situation as we just talked about is that we have an agency that is charged with protecting American interests such as this. So, that’s a good thing we have a Secretary of Commerce that understands and can deal with this quickly. And we talk with him. Obviously, with the Armed Services Committee moving forward to take charge here, and also the Commerce Committee and the Senate, they can move very, very quickly and stop this situation has been imposed on us.”
Oil Prices Resume Plunge Amid Wall Street Meltdown - After steadying somewhat Thursday, world oil prices resumed their plunge Friday and dismissed the massive stimulus package announced by the European Union and President Donald Trump's hint he might intervene in the raging price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia.Oil prices plummeted 11% Friday, completely erasing early gains Thursday that saw the benchmark Brent crude oil climbing briefly above $30 a barrel. Now, Brent crude futures fell $1.49 or 5.2%, to settle at $26.98 per barrel. U.S. crude futures for April fell $2.79, or 11.06%, to settle at $22.43 per barrel.On Friday morning, WTI (U.S. crude) rose 2.97% to $26.62, while Brent Crude was up 3.40% on the day at $31.25. But by 11:00 a.m., WTI had sunk to $25.02, with Brent falling to $30.13. Thursday's price climb, however, was WTI's single best day on record but isn't receiving universal approval."The outsized gains by WTI reflect the hope and not the reality of the U.S. shale industry," said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA. "Once this reality finally sets in, I expect the rally in oil to disappear as quickly as it began."WTI and Brent both collapsed about 40% over the past two weeks since the breakdown of talks between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its 10 allies, including Russia. Saudi Arabia boosted production, and has kept boosting production, leading to the ruinous price was that now has some analysts speculating about $5 oil. The immediate result of the Saudi's price was, which it launched to punish Russia, was $20 oil. Analysts affirm oil prices are set for a weekly drop of more than 10% for the fourth weekly decline in a row. Worse is to come. Amid this unprecedented oil demand destruction, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Russia intend to flood the market with up to a combined 4 million bpd in April when demand will be at its weakest due to the fast spread of COVID-19 in the U.S.
Oil falls 11%, on track for worst month on record - Oil dropped 11% on Friday, giving back early gains, even as the world’s richest nations poured unprecedented aid into the global economy to stop a coronavirus-driven recession and U.S. U.S. crude futures for April fell $2.79, or 11.06%, to settle at $22.43 per barrel. Brent crude futures fell $1.49 or 5.2%, to settle at $26.98 per barrel. Thursday was WTI’s single best day on record. “The outsized gains by WTI (U.S. crude) reflect the hope and not the reality of the U.S. shale industry,” said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA. “Once this reality finally sets in, I expect the rally in oil to disappear as quickly as it began.” As the spread of the coronavirus brings much of the world to a halt, nations have poured increasing stimulus into their economies while central banks have flooded markets with cheap dollars to ease funding strains. “Positive risk sentiment and a weaker U.S. dollar are helping crude on Friday. Also, comments from U.S. president Trump that he might get involved in the oil (price) war at an appropriate time is supporting oil,” said UBS oil analyst Giovanni Staunovo. “My concern relates to the likelihood of more mobility restrictions around the globe, which is likely to weigh further on oil demand. Hence, the worst is probably not over for oil prices.” U.S. crude and Brent have both collapsed about 40% in the past two weeks since the breakdown of talks between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia, leading Saudi Arabia to ramp up supply. Trump said on Thursday that he would act on the price war at the appropriate time, saying low gasoline prices were good for U.S. consumers even though they are hurting the industry. Despite the rise of oil prices on Thursday and Friday, Brent was still on track for a weekly loss of more than 10%, its fourth consecutive weekly decline.
Oil Suffers Biggest Weekly Loss Since 1991 With Demand in Focus - Oil capped its biggest weekly decline in almost three decades as concern that the collapse of global fuel demand will deepen outweighed talks between OPEC and Texas’s energy regulator. Futures in New York tumbled 11% Friday, bringing the week’s plunge to 29%, the biggest since January 1991. Some traders see demand shrinking as much as 10 to 20 million barrels a day as drivers stay home and flights are grounded across the world. Two of the three commissioners at Texas’s oil agency are skeptical of a plan currently being weighed to curtail crude production in the state in an effort to balance global supply with demand and stabilize prices. “The uncertainty of what will happen is still an overhang and destabilizing markets,” said Ryan Fitzmaurice, commodities strategist at Rabobank. “A deal between Texas and OPEC would have been unthinkable a few weeks ago.” “With other governments manipulating oil markets, it’s fair to ask: Why shouldn’t our government step in to try to reinstate a more market-based approach?” Sitton said in a Bloomberg Opinion column. “It would stave off a total oil industry meltdown.” The plan comes as the nearest timespread for the U.S. benchmark indicated its deepest oversupply since 2016. The American shale industry has found itself caught in the middle of the fight between Saudi Arabia and Russia. The sector has so far scaled back operations and is also threatened with a wave of bankruptcies. West Texas Intermediate for April delivery, which expires Friday, fell $2.79 to settle at $22.43 a barrel in New York. The more active May contract slid $3.28 to $22.63 a barrel.Brent for May settlement fell $1.49 to settle at $26.98 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange.
OPEC and IEA warn developing countries could lose up to 85% of oil and gas income this year - Developing countries’ oil and gas income could fall to their lowest levels in more than two decades if current energy market conditions persist, the IEA and OPEC have warned in a rare joint statement. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol and OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo expressed “deep concerns” about the coronavirus pandemic on Monday, warning it could have “potentially far-reaching economic and social consequences.” Birol and Barkindo said they expect developing countries to see their oil and gas income fall by 50% to 85% in 2020. They singled out public sector spending in vital areas such as health care and education as being especially vulnerable. International benchmark Brent crude traded at $29.91 Tuesday morning, down around 0.7%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $28.98, more than 1% higher. Oil prices slid 10% in the previous session, as the coronavirus continues to spread worldwide and amid an ongoing price war between OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia and non-OPEC leader Russia. On Monday, Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil giant Saudi Aramco said it would likely continue with a planned oil production hike from April into May, reportedly suggesting it was “very comfortable” with an oil price of $30 a barrel. Russia, which refused to sign up to OPEC’s proposal of deeper production cuts earlier this month, has claimed it can withstand lower oil prices for as long as a decade. OPEC’s Barkindo and the IEA’s Birol did not address Russia specifically in their joint statement, but both “underscored the importance of market stability, as the impacts of extreme volatility are felt by producers.” They agreed to “remain in close contact on the matter” and continue their regular consultations on oil market developments.
Why Saudi Arabia's Oil Price War Is Doomed To Fail - Oil price wars rarely achieve their objectives. Saudi Arabia and Russia racing to out-pump each other is unlikely to be any different.Instead of declaring a victory in seizing market share back from their common rivals in the form of US shale, the main protagonists in Moscow and Riyadh are more likely to cause long-lasting damage to petrodollar economies already under pressure from demand destruction caused by climate change action and the onslaught on the global financial system from the coronavirus pandemic. The effective collapse of the OPEC+ coalition when the group and its allies failed to agree on an additional 1.5 million b/d of cuts on March 6 has triggered a 30% collapse in prices, with no floor in sight. Brent crude is now below $30/b and test levels last seen back in 2004. Some industry veterans even fear prices could plummet further to historic lows.Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah, Qatar’s former oil minister and OPEC president, fears markets are entering virtually uncharted territory.“I saw the first shock and the first collapse and this is worse,” said the former OPEC grandee in an interview from Doha with S&P Global Platts on March 9.“My expectation is for oil to fall below $20/b. We have seen it before.” Al-Attiyah was referring to the time when former Saudi oil minister Zaki Yamani, under pressure from the kingdom’s late ruler King Fahd, launched the OPEC cartel into a price war with ascendant North Sea producers. The strategy saw crude fall to $10/b and Yamani losing his job. Within a year, Saudi Arabia was forced into an ignominious reversal in tactics in a desperate attempt to boost prices.Al-Attiyah sees echoes of the crisis playing out in today’s market between Russia and the kingdom.“I was there when OPEC had its emergency meeting in 1985 and Sheikh Yamani said open full production and the North Sea producer will come begging to Vienna,” said Al-Attiyah.“They never came and it took us 15 years to properly recover. We have to learn.” Despite the best efforts of Saudi Arabia, OPEC and fluctuating prices, North Sea producers have proved remarkably resilient. Better technology and efficiency means the offshore basin continues to play an important role in the market. Although the best days are over, its resilience was underscored recently by the start of the giant 450,000 b/d Johan Sverdrup field.
Trump eyes intervention in Saudi-Russia oil dispute - President Trump said Thursday he's eyeing intervention in the oil price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, a dispute that combined with COVID-19's economic toll is pushing prices sharply downward and creating financial jeopardy for U.S. producers. The pledge came in Trump's first extensive comments on the upended oil market, but he also suggested that he has mixed feelings about the price collapse. Trump, at a White House briefing on the COVID-19 response, said low gas prices were helpful to consumers. But he also said the decline "hurts a great industry and very powerful industry." "We're trying to find some kind of medium ground," the president said. Prices for West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, rose into the $25-per-barrel range Thursday, since dropping Wednesday to about $20, an 18-year low. However, it's still far below the roughly $63 range where prices were at the beginning of the year. Early this month, the production-limiting agreement between OPEC and Russia collapsed, prompting Saudi Arabia to announce lower prices and plans to increase supplies. Trump did not say what form the U.S. involvement could take. But the Wall Street Journal reported Thursday that the U.S. could ask Saudi Arabia to revisit plans to hike output via communications through the State Department and National Security Council. The story, citing an unnamed administration official, said the U.S. is weighing potential sanctions against Russia. Separately, the Energy Department on Thursday announced a solicitation to buy an initial 30 million barrels of oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, part of a wider plan to fill the stockpile. However, the plan requires congressional approval.
Saudi Arabia announces $32 billion in emergency funds to mitigate oil, coronavirus impact - Saudi Arabia’s government unveiled stimulus measures amounting to 120 Saudi billion riyals ($32 billion) on Friday to support an economy hit by the double blow of the coronavirus crisis and dramatically lower oil prices. The sum includes Riyadh’s 50 billion riyals package announced last week to support small and medium-sized businesses. Friday’s announcement introduces a further 70 billion riyals to aid businesses, including the postponement of tax payments and exemptions of various government levies and fees. Earlier this week, the kingdom cut its 2020 budget by almost 5%, a step that many economists predict will be the first of a series of cutbacks and potentially even austerity measures to keep its finances intact amid oil prices plunging by nearly 60% year-to-date. The relief measures in the new stimulus package include exemptions on expat levies, postponing some private sector fee payments to the government, and postponing the collection of customs duties on imports. It also allows employers to extend exit and re-entry visas free of charge for three months and enables businesses to postpone paying value-added tax, income tax and other levies for the next three months. “Some budget appropriations will be reviewed and reallocated to the sectors most in need in the current situation, including allocating additional funds to the health sector as needed,” the statement quoted Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan as saying. “An emergency budget was also introduced to cover any costs that may arise during the developments of this global crisis.” Saudi Arabia has taken sweeping measures to stem the spread of the coronavirus, including suspending numerous flight routes and temporarily halting entries for religious pilgrims coming to the kingdom for Hajj, a journey taken by some two million Muslims annually.
US On Brink Of War In Iraq - "Self Defense" Strikes Against Iranian Proxies On Table: Pompeo -What a time for war to be brewing in the Middle East yet again: Washington warned Iraq's government on Monday it is ready to act “self-defense” if American forces come under attack. This follows last week's rocket attacks on Taji base just north of Baghdad, which houses US troops. At least two Americans have been killed in the recent attacks, blamed on Iran-backed militias, especially Kataib Hezbollah.Pompeo told Iraqi PM Adil Abd al-Mahdi in a phone call that Baghdad “must defend Coalition personnel supporting the Iraqi government's efforts to defeat ISIS,” according to a Monday State Dept. press release.Those “responsible for the attacks must be held accountable,” the statement warned. The US “will not tolerate attacks and threats to American lives” and will take “military action as necessary in self-defense,” it added. Defense Secretary Mark Esper said last week "all options" remain on the table, and that President Trump had authorized a military response. An initial Pentagon response did come last Thursday in the form of broad airstrikes across southern Iraq, targeting at least 5 Kataib Hezbollah military sites. Iraq was prompt to condemn the US strikes which left at least 6 dead, most Iraqi national military personnel, as well as one civilian. Meanwhile, Iraq’s Foreign Ministry says it will submit a formal complaint to the UN Security Council condemning the repeat US violations of Iraqi sovereignty. "Iraq will complain to the United Nations and the Security Council about overnight U.S. air strikes, a spokesman for the foreign ministry said on Friday," Reuters reports. "The Iraqi military said earlier on Friday that the air strikes had killed six people and described them as a violation of sovereignty."
Yemen reiterates warning against possible catastrophic ‘Safer’ Explosion - The Yemeni government has reiterated its warnings against possible disastrous consequences of the explosion or spill at Safer offshore oil platform, which floats off Hodeidah’s northern Red Sea coast. Information Minister Muammar al-Eryani has listed in a series of tweets the most disastrous consequences. “We renew our warning against the threats posed by Iran's mercenaries (Houthi militias) who continue to prevent the United Nations panel of experts from inspecting and maintaining Safer oil tanker.” Any explosion at Safer will cause a catastrophic oil spill with irreversible environmental damage. Eryani explained that in case of a leak due to the corrosion of the oil tanker, technical reports indicate the estimation of 138 million liters of crude oil spill in the Red Sea. He pointed out that this would be four times worse than the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill disaster in Alaska, stressing that the region still did not fully recover after almost 30 years from the incident. He also noted that the tanker’s explosion would lead to closing Hodeidah port for several months, which would cause shortages in fuel and needs, as well as a rise in fuel prices by 800 percent and the doubling of the prices of goods and food. “Such an explosion will cost Yemeni economic fishing stocks $60 million a year or $1.5 billion over the next 25 years.” Eryani said the possibility of the oil tanker’s burning would affect three million people in Hodeidah. He added that 500,000 people who work in the fishing sector will need food aid, while fish stocks may take 25 years to recover.
Arab countries urge UN to inspect decaying oil tanker off Yemen - Several Arab countries have called on the UN to pressure Yemen's Houthi rebels into allowing the world body to inspect a decaying oil tanker moored off the country's coast, warning that it may explode and cause "widespread environmental damage" to the Red Sea region. The Safer oil tanker has been docked 60km (37 miles) north of Yemen's port city of Hodeidah since the late 1980s, but has not been in use since the Houthis seized the region in 2015. Amid a lack of maintenance and breakdown of crude inside the vessel, the UN has repeatedly warned that there is a risk of a chemical explosion. In August, when a UN team attempted to access the tanker, the rebels blocked them, demanding revenue from the sale of oil aboard the vessel as a precondition for the inspection. The Safer may hold as many as 1.1 million barrels of oil, which could be worth more than $60m. In a letter sent to the UN Security Council on Thursday, the UN ambassadors for Yemen's exiled government, Saudi Arabia, Djibouti, Egypt, Jordan and Sudan warned that a leak or explosion could be "four times worse" than the Exxon Valdez oil spill in 1989 in Alaska. The countries said that an explosion would not only bring more hardships to three million people in Yemen's Hodeidah, but 40 percent of nearby agricultural land would be "covered with black clouds, which would result in the elimination of grains, fruits, and vegetables". "It could increase fuel prices by 800 percent and double the price of food and goods, resulting in more economic challenges for the people of Yemen," the letter read. Yemen's internationally recognised government has been fighting the Houthi movement since 2015, when the rebels took over the country's capital Sanaa. The ongoing war has devastated Yemen, with about 80 percent of the population - 24 million people - requiring some form of humanitarian or protective assistance, according to UNOCHA. Saudi Arabia and its allies, including the United Arab Emirates, have been major backers of the ousted Yemeni government. The government's coalition has accused Iran of arming its Houthi rivals, a charge both Tehran and the rebels deny.
Abu Dhabi acts to cushion the blow of coronavirus on UAE companies - Abu Dhabi is putting its development plans “on steroids” despite low oil prices and the global coronavirus outbreak, according to the chairman of the city’s department of economic development. “One of the most important things is that Abu Dhabi as a government is continuing developing its capital investments ... which was planned for 2020,” Mohammed Ali al-Shorafa told CNBC’s “Capital Connection” on Thursday. “Abu Dhabi has the resources, even at these levels of crude oil prices, to continue with its planned progression,” he said. That may include fiscal reform, monetary policy initiatives and new projects. “We haven’t moved away from the plans, we’re actually putting these plans on steroids,” he added. His comments come as economies around the world grapple with the ongoing health crisis that has sickened more than 207,000 people and killed at least 8,600. The United Arab Emirates has close to 100 confirmed cases, and on Thursday implemented stringent restrictions that bar even residency visa holders who are abroad from entering the country for two weeks.
These 2 charts show copper prices could fall further — and the global economy too - Copper prices have crashed in recent days amid growing panic over the impact of the coronavirus, and the metal’s reputation as a barometer for the global economy means analysts are looking to see if it has further to fall. On Thursday, copper prices hit their lowest level since January 2016, with three-month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) touching $4,371 per metric ton. That’s down from a high of around over $6,340 in mid-January. By 6.30 a.m. London time, copper prices were trading around $4,548. It comes amid the coronavirus pandemic, with over 215,000 confirmed cases around the world, according to Johns Hopkins University, and over 8,800 recorded deaths. The fast transmission of the disease has seen both stock and commodity markets tank as businesses shut down, first in China and now in the U.S. and Europe, and people are told to stay indoors. Here, we take a look at two charts that indicate copper could have further to fall. The copper/gold ratio sees copper prices in ounces divided by gold prices in ounces. It is used as a “growth-to-fear proxy” as both copper and gold are mined in similar ways and have similar production cost structures. Max Layton, head of EMEA commodities research at Citi, explained that copper producers tend to make money when global growth is strong, and gold producers tend to make money in periods with high levels of fear, for example, post-recession. “What you end up with is this growth proxy in the copper margin, versus a fear proxy in the gold margin. So if you take them as a ratio, it’s basically: when it goes down it’s because growth is low and fear is high, and when it goes up it’s because growth is strong and fear is relatively low,” he told CNBC.
China Auto Sales Continue Collapse, Plunging 50% And 44% In First And Second Week Of March, Respectively- The coronavirus has certainly wreaked havoc on an already dilapidated global auto industry - and it's no more evident than in China, where the virus originated and home to the largest auto market in the world. Continuing February's trends, auto sales in March have continued to collapse: lower by 50% during the first week of March and down 44% the second week of March. And that's if you want to believe the numbers that are coming out of China, where the optics of a recovery may mean more to the government than an actual recovery. Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the China Passenger Car Association told Bloomberg that the "market is recovering" but that it is doing so at a "slower than expected pace". He also called for the country to increase car purchase quota, lower purchasing taxes and continue to give subsidies to EV purchases, in an effort to create a tailwind for buyers. The country is also reportedly considering the idea of relaxing emission curbs to help struggling automakers. Recall, sales fell 79% in February, marking the biggest ever monthly plunge on record. We reported less than a week ago that automakers were asking the government for relief after the industry's collapse, which occurred in the midst of an already-in-progress global recession for automakers. Specifically, they were asking at the time for cuts on the purchase tax for smaller vehicles and support for sales in rural markets, in addition to the easing of emission requirements. It looks as though they may have gotten their wish. Sales for February fell to just 310,000 vehicles from a year earlier, marking the 20th straight month of declines.
China's Air Quality Is About to Get a Whole Lot Worse Because of Coronavirus – The coronavirus pandemic gave China something it hasn’t seen in years: bright, blue, smog-free skies. That’s about to change. The country is already planning to relax environmental rules to allow Chinese factories idled during the epidemic to get back up to speed. The Chinese government is signaling that addressing pollution won’t be a top priority. The government insists that environment standards remain in place — they just won’t be enforced as aggressively.“The environmental supervision should be adjusted in accordance with practical needs and social economic situation,” said Cao Liping, director of Ecological and Environmental Enforcement bureau at the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, at a press briefing last week.Experts have been warning that the virus could lead to an increase in pollution after the by NASA earlier this month show pollutants essentially evaporating as the coronavirus overtook the country between January and February of this year. Air pollution kills about 1.6 million people annually in China — and a Stanford researcher estimates that a two-month drop in pollution could have spared about 80,000 premature deaths. About 3,200 people have died inside China during the course of the outbreak.The pollution has dropped over Italy during the course of the outbreak, too. But just because emissions are temporarily down around the world doesn’t mean this is a cause to celebrate. “It is, of course, not a good thing,” Riccardo Valentini, a professor at Italy’s University of Tuscia and director of the impacts division of the Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, wrote in an email to the Washington Post. “This is not the way to reduce emissions!”
Coronavirus: World Bank 'pandemic bond' investors face big losses - Investors are looking at big losses in two World Bank-issued “pandemic bonds,” which have fallen under the spotlight as the coronavirus outbreak continues to spread worldwide. Those bonds, issued by the World Bank’s International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) in 2017, were designed to pay out funds to countries that need help to contain a pandemic. The World Health Organization classified the current coronavirus outbreak a global pandemic earlier this month. The bonds offer investors high interest payments in return for taking on the risk of losing a certain amount or all of their money if pandemics occur. That includes the current coronavirus pandemic. But prices of those bonds have plunged as investors flee with the number of infection cases surging. Growing fear about the economic fallout of the outbreak has driven a sell-off in risk assets as investors seek the perceived safety of government bonds like U.S. Treasurys. According to ratings agency DBRS Morningstar, investors who hold the riskier of the two bonds could be losing their entire principal amount soon, with the firm telling CNBC that the price should have dropped more than 80%. Pricing for the less risky bond has probably fallen less than 50%, said Marcos Alvarez, senior vice president and head of insurance — global financial institutions at DBRS Morningstar. Pricing information on these bonds is not public as they were privately placed three years ago. “Similar to other catastrophe-linked bonds in the market, investors could lose their principal if a set of parametric triggers, such as outbreak size, growth rate and spread across borders, are met,” the firm wrote in a report earlier this month. According to the World Bank, the outbreak would need to last at least 12 weeks, and have more than 2,500 deaths for the riskier of the two bonds, and 250 deaths for the other. There must also be more than 20 deaths in a second country.
The case for massive corona-stimulus - UK chancellor Rishi Sunak will on Tuesday announce the economic support package that was noticeably missing from the government’s encouragement on Monday for the public to abandon large parts of the service economy. Just in time to embolden timid hearts at the Treasury, a brief paper from Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman at Berkeley university laid out the urgent case for action on a giant scale: The most important message that needs to come from heads of state immediately, even before any new law or complete implementation details are provided, is: “Do not lay off your workers or liquidate your business. Government will pay your idle workers and your necessary maintenance costs while you are shutdown. Government money is coming soon.”1 This is crucial to stanch the flow of mass layoffs and business destruction that is already starting.The academics estimate that US output will fall 30 per cent, and if the interruption to life lasts for three months, that translates to a 7.5 per cent drop in GDP – a severe recession.Such an outcome demands government intervention on moral, practical, and economic grounds. As Jim Reid, strategist at Deutsche Bank put it on Tuesday, “global economies have effectively been put on war footing but without the usual intense wartime economic activity.”Everyone has been asked to help prevent widespread deaths at a personal cost. The government’s job is to prevent the temporary economic hit resulting from those costs having a permanent impact. Preventing the deaths of businesses is essential, Saez and Xucman said, because such failures have long-term costs: “the links between entrepreneurs, workers, and customers are destroyed and often need to be rebuilt from scratch; laid off workers need to find new jobs.” A three-month programme to mitigate the impact, they estimate, would involve spending 3.75 per cent of GDP: A payer-of-last-resort program will work if it is limited in time (e.g., 3 months), so that the cost remains manageable and business decisions are not affected. It would not fully offset the economic cost of the coronavirus. No matter what governments do, there will be real output losses. But a payer-of-last-resort program would alleviate the hardship on workers and businesses. It would maintain the cash flow for families and businesses, so that the coronavirus shock has no secondary impacts on demand—such as laid-off workers cutting down on consumption—and a quick rebound can take place once demand comes back. Business activity is on hold today, but with an intravenous cash flow, it can be kept alive until the health crisis is over. Assume that the government were to err on the side of overspending, and say commit to 5 per cent of GDP in three months. In the UK that would be about £105bn, in the US about $1tn. The amounts sound big (they are big!), but not in terms of the economic impact of deep recessions. Consider what happened to the UK public finances between 2008 and 2010. Government debt as a proportion of annual economic output went from 34 per cent to 63 per cent in two years because of the financial crisis.
Lagarde Fires Bazooka #2- ECB Announces €750BN Pandemic Purchase Program - Earlier this afternoon we said that because "the Fed's Bazooka #1 was an epic dud. Here comes Bazooka #2", and this time it is the ECB that will try to fire. Sure enough, almost three hours later, and just before 1am CET, the ECB announced plans to buy a whopping €750bn in more bonds in the delightfully named Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (because we clearly needed another alphabet bailout soup) after holding an emergency call of its rate-setting committee on Wednesday evening in response to the Global Covid Crisis and resulting financial market turmoil. The central bank said the additional asset purchases - as a reminder last week the ECB expanded its baseline QE - would be carried out by the end of this year, cover both sovereign bonds and corporate debt, and would last until the coronavirus crisis is over."The Governing Council will terminate net asset purchases under PEPP once it judges that the coronavirus Covid-19 crisis phase is over, but in any case not before the end of the year."Because the European Central Bank of Virologists is clearly able to predict that the pandemic will not fade away until at least 2021. The ECB said that purchases will be conducted in "flexible manner" allowing fluctuations over time, across asset classes and among jurisdictions, and unlike prior QE episodes, this time purchases under PEPP will include Greek debt.Just like the Fed, the ECB also expanded the range of eligible assets to non-financial commercial paper and to ease the collateral standards to allow banks to raise money against more of their assets, including corporate finance claims. For those wondering if the ECB would limit itself to A1 and higher CP, like the Fed, the answer is clearly no as per the following: "all commercial papers of sufficient credit quality eligible for purchase under CSPP." What is sufficient? Anything that the ECB says.
UK PM Boris Johnson announces nationwide lockdown measures, telling cafes, pubs and restaurants to close - U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced nationwide lockdown measures Friday, telling cafes, bars and restaurants to close. “We are collectively telling cafes, pubs, bars and restaurants to close tonight as soon as they reasonably can and not to open tomorrow,” Johnson said at a daily briefing on the coronavirus. He said takeout services for these businesses would be able to continue. “We are also telling nightclubs, theaters, cinemas, gyms and leisure centers to close on the same timescale.” “These are places where people come together, and indeed the whole purpose of these businesses in many cases is to bring people together. But, the sad thing is, I’m afraid today, for now at least, physically we need to keep people apart,” Johnson said. It was not immediately clear whether the recommendations were enforceable by law, although Johnson said licensing laws would allow the government to order these businesses to close. The prime minister said the newly announced measures would be reviewed on a monthly basis. To date, the U.K. has reported 3,297 cases of the coronavirus, including 168 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University.
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