The Fed is unlikely to hint at policy change, despite stronger economy - Federal Reserve officials next week are likely to paint a robust picture on the economy while simultaneously not even hinting at policy changes ahead.Investors increasingly have come to trust central bankers when they say that even with the economy running at its hottest pace in nearly 40 years, they won't start taking away policy accommodation until it's clear the recovery is on solid ground."The economic outlook is fairly good, as long the Fed keeps its foot on the pedal," said Randy Frederick, vice president of trading and derivatives at Charles Schwab. "The market has finally accepted that they will."The Fed has kept short-term borrowing rates near zero since early in theCovid-19 pandemic, and has continued to buy at least $120 billion of bond-related assets each month. The asset purchases have pushed the central bank's balance sheet to nearly $8 trillion, or about double its level since the crisis began.Financial markets, though, have been leery that with economic data getting stronger by the day and inflationary pressures starting to build that the Fed could find itself pressed to start easing off the accelerator. "They're providing liquidity that's going to fuel an economic recovery," Frederick said. "The challenge is when they decided to pull back on that." Clues about when that date may arrive are unlikely to come when the Federal Open Market Committee, the central bank's monetary policymaking arm, concludes its two-day meeting Wednesday.Instead, the public is likely to get a statement that will "strike a more optimistic tone on the economic outlook" that "could prove to be the most positive the Fed has released in some time," wrote Andrew Hunter, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics. Like many others on Wall Street, Hunter figures Fed Chairman Jerome Powelland his cohorts to upgrade their view of the economy but stress that it remains some distance away from the "substantial further progress" benchmark the FOMC has set in its recent post-meeting statements. Powell caught the market's attention recently when he told the CBS program "60 Minutes" that the economy has reached an "inflection point" in the recovery. But he also continued to stress the strides the labor market needs to make to achieve full employment that is inclusive across income, racial and gender groups. Similarly, the Fed chair may want to be at least a little coy at his post-meeting news conference about the future policy arc, in particular about potential rate increases and pullbacks in the pace of asset purchases. There's an informal consensus on Wall Street that Powell likely will start talking about tapering this summer, with expectation of a gentle rollback in bond purchases by the end of the year.
The Fed won’t taper until 2023 at the earliest, says former White House economist. Here’s why. - The first quarter saw the worst performance of the 10-year note going back to 1980. But that hasn’t been the case of late, with the 10-year yield slipping around 15 basis points from its late March high. That is not all — the U.S. dollar has softened, and the trading in eurodollar futures suggests reduced expectations for the number of interest-rate hikes between now and the end of 2024. “That all kind of makes sense with a slower growth trajectory beyond this year,” says Joe Lavorgna, the chief economist of the Americas for Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking. This year will see “gangbusters growth,” says Lavorgna, the chief economist for the White House National Economic Council in the latter days of the Trump administration. “If the economy was healthy before the [COVID-19] pandemic began, it would make sense the economy would come back quite quickly, and that’s certainly been the case in the U.S.” But Lavorgna distinguishes between gross domestic product growth and the U.S. jobs picture, which is still over 8 million jobs short of pre-pandemic levels. And this job outlook is dependent on the small-business side, where the data haven’t been great. “If we significantly lift marginal tax rates, and the tax rates on capital, that’s going to really hurt the S corps,” he says, referring to businesses with no more than 100 shareholders. The White House didn’t reply to a question about S corporation tax policy. Lavorgna isn’t fearful of goods and services inflation, and, as a result, says the Fed won’t begin to taper its bond purchases before 2023 — and won’t lift interest rates before the next presidential election. The New York Federal Reserve’s survey of primary dealers, in March, found Wall Street expecting that the taper would begin in the first quarter of 2022, with the first hike in the third quarter of 2023. “If you’re going into 2022, and growth is a lot slower, the delta is negative, and inflation isn’t really picking up, it’s going to be very hard for the Fed to taper,” the Wall Street veteran says. In the last cycle, it took seven years from the last interest-rate cut to first interest-rate hike. “This time around, the Fed is more ingrained in markets, the forward guidance is much stronger, the balance sheets are much bigger, it’s occurring against massive debt,” he says. “How in the world can the Fed possibly step back from bond buying, it seems very difficult to me.” He says the one thing he began to appreciate working in Washington, D.C. was the psychology of the economy. “Sentiment is probably more important than I would have guessed for economic activity,” he says. “Going in I thought, ‘that doesn’t really matter because companies are opportunistic, they will figure out a way to navigate.’ Well, that’s true, but psychology is important.”
Morgan Stanley: If A CBDC Gains Acceptance For International Transactions, It Could Become The New Reserve Currency - We do not usually associate disruption with central banks. But a major move to introduce central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) could actually disrupt the financial system. CBDCs are a new form of digital cash intended to serve as a substitute for physical cash. They will be a liability of the central bank, which will maintain them in a centralized ledger. CBDCs should not be confused with cryptocurrencies, which either are pegged to an underlying asset or backed by a public blockchain. Cryptocurrencies are not a viable form of digital cash for payments on a large scale, given the high computational and energy intensity of the validation process using distributed ledger technologies. However, they will continue to perform other functions. For instance, investors may perceive that cryptocurrencies can be a store of value (akin to precious metals) to hedge against the effects of central banks’ aggressive monetary easing. Efforts to introduce CBDCs are gaining momentum, with as many as 86% of the world’s central banks exploring digital currencies. China has launched pilot trials in a number of cities, the ECB recently concluded a public consultation on a digital euro and will make a decision this summer, and the Boston Fed is set to release its initial research in the fall. What explains this sudden concerted interest? We see three main reasons:
- Monetary sovereignty: Private payment networks have proliferated rapidly. As they gain market share, these networks can become the primary means of transaction for many users. The central banks’ concern is that money will circulate almost exclusively within the networks, posing a threat to central bank control of the monetary system.
- Financial stability: Any potential failure by a private provider of digital money could disrupt the payment system and lead to financial stability risks. While regulators have taken steps to mitigate these risks, they cannot eliminate them. In contrast, the central bank both creates and holds a CBDC, hence will be able to guarantee its reliability as a medium of exchange for transactions.
- Financial inclusion: The rise of private, narrow money networks risks excluding segments of the general public, e.g., the unbanked population. A CBDC, just like physical cash, can be made broadly available and may even foster greater financial inclusion.
With these objectives in mind, we think that central banks will implement consumer-facing retail digital currencies, accessible to the public through financial intermediaries and running on a centralized ledger system controlled by monetary authorities. Nevertheless, when something as fundamental as what you use to make payments changes, the effects can be far-reaching.
Recession Measures and NBER -- Calling the beginning or end of a recession usually takes time. However, the economic decline in March 2020 was so severe that the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) quickly called the end of the expansion in February. The committee has determined that a peak in monthly economic activity occurred in the U.S. economy in February 2020. The peak marks the end of the expansion that began in June 2009 and the beginning of a recession. The expansion lasted 128 months, the longest in the history of U.S. business cycles dating back to 1854. The previous record was held by the business expansion that lasted for 120 months from March 1991 to March 2001. The NBER will probably wait some time before calling the end of the recession, this process can take from 18 months to two years or longer. It is likely the NBER will date the beginning of the expansion in Q2 2020.It will take some time for all major indicators to be above their previous high after the pandemic recession because of the severe contraction as the graphs below show. GDP is the key measure, as the NBER committee notes in their business cycle dating procedure: This graph is for real GDP through Q4 2020.This is the key measure, and the NBER will probably use GDP and GDI to determine the trough of the recession (likely in April and in Q2 2020). As of Q4, real GDP was 2.5% below the pre-recession peak. Most forecasters expect GDP to increase strongly in Q1 2021, but even with a 7% annualized increase, real GDP will be down about 0.8% from Q4 2019. Real GDP will likely be above Q4 2019 levels in Q2 2021. The second graph is for monthly industrial production based on data from the Federal Reserve through Mar 2021. Industrial production is off over 4.5% from the pre-recession peak. Note that industrial production was weak prior to the onset of the pandemic. Industrial production usually takes a long time to recover after a significant decline. The third graph is for employment through March 2021. Historically employment was a coincident indicator for the end of recessions, but that hasn't been true for the previous three recessions (1990-1991, 2001, 2007-2009). Employment is currently off about 5.5% from the pre-recession peak (dashed line). This is a significant improvement from off 14.6% in April 2020. There is still a long way to go for employment to recover to pre-pandemic levels. And the last graph is for real personal income excluding transfer payments through Feb 2021. Real personal income less transfer payments was still off 2.5% in February. These graphs are useful in trying to identify peaks and troughs in economic activity. Economic activity bottomed in Q2 (in April).
Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy --These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the seven day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Blue) and 2021 (Red). This data is as of April 18th. The seven day average is down 42.1% from the same day in 2019 (57.9% of last year). (Dashed line) The second graph shows the 7 day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities.This data is updated through April 17, 2021. Dining picked up during the holidays, then slumped with the huge winter surge in cases. Dining was picking up again, but turned down last week. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). Blue is 2020 and Red is 2021. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through Apr 15th. Movie ticket sales were at $33 million last week, down about 75% from the median for the week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels - before 2020). Occupancy is now above the horrible 2009 levels. This data is through April 10th. Hotel occupancy is currently down 15% compared to same week in 2019). This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. Blue is for 2020. Red is for 2021. As of April 9th, gasoline supplied was off about 5.1% (about 94.9% of the same week in 2019). This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." There is also some great data on mobility from the Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index. This data is through April 17th for the United States and several selected cities. According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is at 66% of the January 2020 level. It is at 62% in Chicago, and 61% in Houston (the Houston dip was a weather related decline) - and moving up recently. Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage. This graph is from Todd W Schneider. This is weekly data since 2015. Most weeks are between 30 and 35 million entries, and currently there just above 10 million subway turnstile entries per week. This data is through Friday, April 16th. Schneider has graphs for each borough, and links to all the data sources.
Chicago Fed: "Index suggests economic growth rebounded in March" - "Index suggests economic growth rebounded in March." This is the headline for this morning's release of the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index, and here is the opening paragraph from the report:Led by improvements in indicators related to production and personal consumption and housing, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +1.71 in March from –1.20 in February. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in March, and all four categories improved from February. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to +0.54 in March from +0.07 in February. [Download report] The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly indicator designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. It is a composite of 85 monthly indicators as explained in this background PDF file on the Chicago Fed's website. The index is constructed so a zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth. Negative values indicate below-average growth, and positive values indicate above-average growth. The first chart below shows the recent behavior of the index since 2007. The red dots show the indicator itself, which is quite noisy, together with the 3-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3), which is more useful as an indicator of the actual trend for coincident economic activity.
CB Leading Economic Index: Sharp Rise in March - The latest Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for March was up 1.3% from the February final figure of 110.2.The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. increased substantially in March, after being revised downward for February. The March gain was driven by positive contributions from all underlying components of the index. In the six-month period ending March 2021, the leading economic index increased 3.8 percent (about a 7.8 percent annual rate), slightly slower than the growth of 4.0 percent (about an 8.1 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. In addition, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained very widespread.The Conference Board CEI for the U.S., a measure of current economic activity, also increased in March. The coincident economic index rose 1.7 percent (about a 3.4 percent annual rate) between September 2020 and March 2021, a reversal from the 2.8 percent decline (about a -5.4 percent annual rate) over the previous six months. The strengths among the coincident indicators have been more widespread than the weaknesses over the past six months. The lagging economic index registered two declines over the past three months while the CEI has been rising. As a result, the coincident-to-lagging ratio increased. Real GDP expanded at a 4.3 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2020, after increasing 33.4 percent (annual rate) in the third quarter. MoreHere is a log-scale chart of the LEI series with documented recessions as identified by the NBER. The use of a log scale gives us a better sense of the relative sizes of peaks and troughs than a more conventional linear scale.
Smaller Corporate Tax Increase Floated at White House Infrastructure Meeting – WSJ —President Biden and a bipartisan group of lawmakers discussed alternative ways to pay for infrastructure spending, including a smaller increase in the corporate tax rate, as Republicans and Democrats aired possible changes to the size and scope of the package.The White House has proposed raising the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21%, along with increasing taxes on U.S. companies’ foreign earnings, to cover the cost of Mr. Biden’s $2.3 trillion infrastructure proposal. At the meeting Monday, lawmakers and Mr. Biden discussed a more modest tax increase, according to multiple attendees.Rep. Charlie Crist (D., Fla.) said lawmakers discussed the potential for some “compromise wiggle room” on raising the corporate rate to help pay for the plan. “You could see a 2 or 3% increase—maybe not all the way to 28 but 25,” he said of the percentage rate.Mr. Biden has held a series of meetings with lawmakers of both parties about his proposal, which offers funding for improving transportation, expanding access to broadband, rebuilding schools and funding elder care, among other priorities. The White House has indicated Mr. Biden is open to breaking his proposal into smaller parts and is considering different ways to pay for it, amid a swirl of proposals from lawmakers of both parties.“I am prepared to compromise, prepared to see what we can do and what we can get together on,” Mr. Biden said in the Oval Office as the meeting with 10 lawmakers and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg got under way. “It’s a big package, but there are a lot of needs,” he said.Some Senate Republicans, critical of the corporate tax increases and the broad scope of Mr. Biden’s infrastructure plan, have started discussing making a counteroffer in the realm of $600 billion to $800 billion. A group of Republicans met Monday to discuss that possibility, with lawmakers aiming to release their own plan soon.Republicans have indicated that they would want to focus on spending money on building roads and bridges, along with expanding access to broadband, while excluding other parts of Mr. Biden’s plan, such as providing $400 billion for caring for elderly and disabled Americans. Lawmakers at the White House Monday discussed whether certain provisions of Mr. Biden’s proposal should be considered infrastructure, with Republicans also moving to dissuade Mr. Biden from raising the corporate tax rate and instead focus on user fees.The GOP lawmakers were “more in favor of user fees so that whoever was benefiting from that particular infrastructure project would be paying for it in the long run,” said Rep. Carlos Giménez (R., Fla.). Mr. Giménez said Mr. Biden indicated that he hoped to see a counteroffer from Republicans by mid-May.“I think they would like to work on a bipartisan basis,” said Sen. Mitt Romney (R., Utah) of Democrats. “The challenge is going to be how it’s paid for, and we’ll see if we can cross that bridge.”
Biden’s Big Agenda Relies on a Shrunken, Strained Agency: The IRS - WSJ—If President Biden is to implement his ambitious economic agenda, he will have to rely on a beleaguered arm of the government: the Internal Revenue Service.The U.S. tax agency, shrunken after a decade of budget cuts, is sending $1,400 payments to most Americans, the third such logistical challenge in a year. Last month’s $1.9 trillion relief law requires the IRS to create a system outside of annual tax filings for issuing child tax credit payments. And, further complicating an already messy filing season in which the April 15 deadline was pushed back to May 17, the agency must implement a retroactive change to taxation of unemployment benefits received in 2020.More challenges await. The Biden administration and congressional Democrats are considering tax increases on companies and top earners that would require significant implementation and enforcement. They also hope to collect hundreds of billions of dollars by expanding the IRS and beefing up audits.Getting all that done likely will require a transformation of the U.S. tax agency. Although the IRS still inspires fear and anger in many, it lost a net 15% of its employees between 2010 and 2020, including thousands who pursued tax avoidance and answered taxpayers’ queries. It opens about half as many criminal investigations as in 2010. In fiscal 2019, the percentage of individuals audited reached its lowest level in at least 40 years.The result: At least $381 billion in taxes owed goes uncollected annually, according to agency estimates for tax years 2011 through 2013. Inflation and budget cuts since then mean the current number is likely much larger, and IRS Commissioner Charles Rettig said last week that it could be as high as $1 trillion annually, which is more than the annual defense budget.Getting more than half that missing money would require much more intrusive enforcement. But picking up the easiest quarter could yield as much revenue as Mr. Biden’s proposed corporate tax-rate increase. To the agency’s backers, this is a no-brainer, the rare government program that more than pays for itself. IRS officials have prepared a six-year turnaround plan to modernize aging technology and improve customer service. Mr. Rettig, a veteran California tax lawyer who was appointed by then-President Donald Trump and whose term lasts until November 2022, has been seeking billions to implement it.
Biden plan would nearly double capital gains tax for wealthy: report - President Biden is reportedly preparing a proposal for a near-doubling of the capital gains tax for wealthier Americans, increasing the rate to 39.6 percent, up from the current top rate of 20 percent, according to a report in Bloomberg News. The increase, in line with campaign promises, would impose the higher rate on those earning more than $1 million. But when added to a 3.8 percent surcharge on investments put in place by the Affordable Care Act, the top rate could reach 43.4 percent. Additional capital gains taxes in high-tax states could push investment taxes up further for residents. Biden is expected to include the proposal as part of his American Families Plan to be presented before a joint session of Congress next week. The plan is expected to propose $1 trillion in investments for child care, paid leave and other tax credits oriented toward families. White House press secretary Jen Psaki said the plans were not finalized, but that Biden believed investments in infrastructure and child care should be paid for. “His view is that that can be on the backs of the wealthiest Americans who can afford it, and corporations and businesses who can afford it. And his view, and the view of our economic team, is that that won’t have a negative impact," she said Thursday. Markets dropped on the news of Biden's tax plan Thursday, erasing their minor gains from earlier in the day. The S&P 500 was down 30 points, or 0.7 percent, after being up 6 points, or 0.1 percent, before the report. Democrats have long sought ways to increase taxes on the wealthiest Americans, who have seen their fortunes expand even as the pandemic took a sledgehammer to the economy. Unlike the wealth tax proposed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), which would take an annual chunk out of the overall wealth stock of high-net individuals, the capital gains tax would only kick in when stocks or other assets are sold. Critics of Warren's wealth tax have argued that higher capital gains taxes are easier to administer. Because high earners often take in significant sums from capital gains, Democrats complained that the lower tax rate on investment income meant the wealthiest pay far less on their earnings than typical wage-earners. The top income tax rate is currently 37 percent, but was 39.6 percent before the 2017 GOP tax law. Investor Warren Buffett famously complained that his secretary paid a higher percentage of her earnings on taxes than he did for that reason. The increases are unrelated to the corporate tax increase from 21 percent to 28 percent that Biden proposed for his $2.3 trillion infrastructure plan.
US Security Analysts Tackle Shape-Shifting Threats With… More of the Same -- In 1993, President Clinton’s newly appointed CIA director, James Woolsey, described the post-Cold War security environment and the collapse of the Soviet bloc as the United States slaying the dragon and being left in a jungle inhabited by poisonous snakes. Throughout the 1990s, the United States duly reconfigured its huge military power away from heavy armour, anti-submarine forces and other Cold War elements and towards expeditionary warfare, special forces, stand-off weapons and rapid deployment, all useful for fighting small wars in far-off places. What was not expected was that those “snakes” could hit both the metropolis and the centre of military power, which partly explains the rush to large-scale war after 9/11. Now, nearly 30 years later, there is the risk of the wheel being reinvented. The US Directorate of National Intelligence recently published a detailed analysis of the state of international insecurity as it is now and as it will evolve in the coming decades.The report, ‘Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World’, is one of a four-yearly series from the Strategic Futures Group, which is part of the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence. This edition of the forecasting report looks ahead to the next two decades. It is certainly far superior to the UK’s ‘Global Britain in a Competitive Age: The Integrated Review of Defence, Development and Foreign Policy’, that was published last month. However, sadly that is not saying much.The Washington Post summarised the gloomy nature of the ‘Global Trends 2040’ report’s findings: “Looking over the time horizon, it finds a world unsettled by the coronavirus pandemic, the ravages of climate change – which will propel mass migration – and a widening gap between what people demand from their leaders and what they can actually deliver.” John Mecklin, editor-in-chief of the non-profit media organisation, ‘The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’, compared it with the Bulletin’s annual ‘Doomsday Clock’, currently as close to midnight as it’s ever been, even at the height of the Cold War.Overall, a picture emerges of a more volatile and uncertain world, but the authors have little to offer in the way of new answers. The chances, therefore, are that the responses will be all too similar to the post-9/11 world, with military capabilities to the fore. This is made even more likely as the report fails to get to grips with two basic elements of the global predicament. One is that there is no recognition of the fact that the dominant, neoliberal economic culture is not fit for purpose and is hastening the fracturing of an increasingly divided and marginalised society. The idea of marginalisation is certainly there in the analysis, but the intelligence culture simply does not recognise the neoliberal failure at the root of so much of it.The other, related not only to the intelligence culture but to the much wider security culture embedded in the military-industrial complex, is that responses to security challenges are almost always of the military kind.
Trump says Biden's plan to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan is a 'wonderful and positive thing to do' - - Former President Donald Trump has praised President Joe Biden's plan to withdraw all remaining US troops from Afghanistan as a "wonderful and positive thing to do," drawing criticism from some Republicans.Biden on Wednesday formally announced that he planned to withdraw all troops stationed in Afghanistan by September 11, bringing an end to what he called "America's longest war."Trump praised the decision, but urged the president to pull troops out before the symbolic September 11 deadline, which marks the 20th anniversary of the deadly terrorist attacks that prompted the start of US involvement in a decades-long conflict in Afghanistan."Getting out of Afghanistan is a wonderful and positive thing to do. I planned to withdraw on May 1st, and we should keep as close to that schedule as possible," Trump said in a statement Sunday.Trump's praise for the pullout drew condemnation from Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, who tweeted that "I could not disagree more" with the former president."With all due respect to former President Trump, there is nothing 'wonderful' or 'positive' about allowing safe havens and sanctuary for terrorists to reemerge in Afghanistan or see Afghanistan be drawn back into another civil war," he tweeted.An estimated 3,500 US troops are serving in Afghanistan, The New York Times reported.Biden on Wednesday formally announced his plan to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan, saying it was "time to end America's longest war." Lawmakers have been divided on the wisdom of the move. Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said the plan was "careful and thought-out," but several top Republicans condemned it.Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell criticized the plan, saying US troops in Afghanistan had "helped keep radical Islamic terrorism in check."
Biden's 'Orderly' Afghan Exit Already In Peril As Suicide Attack Rocks Kabul --After Biden broke the prior Trump administration's long negotiated May 1st deadline pullout deal with the Taliban, it vowed a "nightmare" for US troops should they stay past that date. Are we witnessing the beginnings of a massive upsurge in violence to come? A major peace conference meant to bring the national government and Taliban into a power-sharing arrangement to help facilitate a swift US exit has been canceled before it got off the ground... "Just hours before the announcement of the postponement, a suicide bomber attacked a convoy of Afghan security personnel, wounding seven people in the capital of Kabul. The interior ministry said civilians and security personnel were among the wounded.The attack was the first in weeks in the capital, even as targeted killings have escalated and Afghanistan’s security personnel have come under relentless attacks by Taliban insurgents. Recent months have also seen an increase in government bombing raids on suspected Taliban positions and increased raids by Afghan special forces." And the Associated Press adds further that "Residents fear the attack could be a harbinger of what’s to come as foreign troops prepare to begin their final withdrawal from Afghanistan. No one took immediate responsibility for the attack." The report emphasized that US hopes for an "orderly exit" are already in peril.
House votes to condemn Chinese government over Hong Kong --The House passed a resolution on Monday to formally condemn the Chinese government and the Hong Kong regional government for actions that "violate the rights and freedoms" of the region's citizens.Lawmakers adopted the resolution by a 418-1 vote that calls on the Chinese government and the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region to release pro-democracy activists and politicians arrested under the national security law enacted last year that reduces the city's autonomy and imposes harsh punishments for protesters."By passing this resolution, the House sends a strong bipartisan message demanding that the Chinese and Hong Kong governments respect the will of the people of Hong Kong. We will continue to push for democracy and respect for human rights in Hong Kong. We will continue to demonstrate that we stand in solidarity with the pro-democracy figures and activists who have made tremendous sacrifices for their city and for their core human rights," said House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.). Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) was the lone lawmaker to vote against the resolution. Monday's vote came days after a Hong Kong court sentenced several pro-democracy activists to prison on charges of unauthorized assembly. Among the activists sentenced was Jimmy Lai, a media tycoon whose company publishes a newspaper that is openly critical of the Chinese regime. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) condemned the prison sentences during a Senate floor speech earlier Monday.“To the global business and government leaders who haven’t yet spoken out, I hope you are watching closely. If Beijing feels comfortable treating Hong Kongers this way, just think how little regard the [Chinese government] will show for basic international norms," McConnell said.
Senate Committee Passes Bill To Ramp Up Lethal Aid To Ukraine -Russia hawks in Congress just escalated already soaring tensions along the Ukraine-Russia border, on Wednesday passing a bill which boosts "lethal assistance" in the form of additional military hardware as well as training for Ukrainian troops. The vote in the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee was unanimous in support of authorization of $300 million in annual military aid to Ukraine. "The committee passed the Ukraine Security Partnership Act sponsored by a bipartisan group of senators including Democrat Bob Menendez and Republican Jim Risch," according to The National. "The bill authorizes up to $300m per year of foreign military financing to Ukraine, subject to certifications, including the authority to provide it with lethal military assistance and $4m per year to train its military officers," the report notes. Specifically Menendez invoked what he described as "the massive Russian troop build-up along the eastern border and aggression in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov" in a phone call with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba just ahead of the vote. Likely the reference to the maritime "aggression" is related to this week's expanded Russian naval and aerial drills off the southern coast of Crimea, as well as the recent notification that it would close the Kerch Strait to all foreign military vessels for six months.
US & Russia Won't Have Ambassadors In Each Other's Capitals As Tensions Simmer - Due to the hostile policies of the Biden administration, tensions between the US and Russia are soaring. Now, amid the souring relations, the two countries won’t have ambassadors in each other’s capitals, making diplomaticcommunications even more difficult.US Ambassador to Russia John Sullivan announced on Tuesday that he is returning to Washington for "consultations."His announcement came after Russia’s foreign minister suggested Sullivan return to the US for the time being in response to new US sanctions against Moscow and the White House’s decision to expel 10 Russian diplomats.Last month, Russia recalled its ambassador to the US after President Biden agreed in an interview that Russian President Vladimir Putin is a "killer" who has "no soul."Since his comments, Biden has called Putin and proposed an in-person meeting, which US and Russian officials are discussing setting up.Although Biden suggested meeting with Putin, it was after the phone call that the US slapped a wide array of sanctions against Russian officials and entities and expelled the Russian diplomats. Moscow responded by expelling US diplomats and releasing a list of current and former officials who are banned from entering Russia. On top of the rhetoric and the sanctions, the US has also expressed its "unwavering" support for Ukraine amid tensions with Russia. The Biden administration is hyping the presence of Russian troops near Ukraine’s border, claiming it is the largest Russian military build-up since 2014. On Monday, the EU claimed that Russia had sent over 150,000 troops near the border with Ukraine but had to correct the number and said later it was more like 100,000. But it’s still not clear how this number has been determined.
Biden’s Appeasement of Hawks and Neocons Is Crippling His Diplomacy - Medea Benjamin - President Biden took office promising a new era of American international leadership and diplomacy. But with a few exceptions, he has so far allowed self-serving foreign allies, hawkish U.S. interest groups and his own imperial delusions to undermine diplomacy and stoke the fires of war. Biden’s failure to quickly recommit to the Iran nuclear deal, or JCPOA, as Senator Sanders promised to do on his first day as president, provided a critical delay that has been used by opponents to undermine the difficult shuttle diplomacytaking place in Vienna to restore the agreement. The attempts to derail talks range from the introduction of the Maximum Pressure Act on April 21 to codify the Trump administration’s sanctions against Iran to Israel’s cyberattack on Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility. Biden’s procrastination has only strengthened the influence of the hawkish Washington foreign policy “blob,” Republicans and Democratic hawks in Congress and foreign allies like Netanyahu in Israel. In Afghanistan, Biden has won praise for his decision to withdraw U.S. troops by September 11, but his refusal to abide by the May 1 deadline for withdrawal as negotiated under the Trump administration has led the Taliban to back out of the planned UN-led peace conference in Istanbul. A member of the Taliban military commissiontold the Daily Beast that “the U.S. has shattered the Taliban’s trust.” Now active and retired Pentagon officials are regaling the New York Times with accounts of how they plan to prolong the U.S. war without “boots on the ground” after September, undoubtedly further infuriating the Taliban, making a ceasefire and peace talks all the more difficult.In Ukraine, the government has launched a new offensive in its civil war against the ethnically Russian provinces in the eastern Donbass region, which declared unilateral independence after the U.S.-backed coup in 2014. On April 1, Ukraine’s militarychief of staff said publicly that “the participation of NATO allies is envisaged” in the government offensive, prompting warnings from Moscow that Russia could intervene to protect Russians in Donbass. Sticking to their usual tired script, U.S. and NATO officials are pretending that Russia is the aggressor for conducting military exercises and troop movements within its own borders in response to Kiev’s escalation. But even the BBC is challenging thisfalse narrative, explaining that Russia is acting competently and effectively to deter an escalation of the Ukrainian offensive and U.S. and NATO threats. The U.S hasturned around two U.S. guided-missile destroyers that were steaming toward the Black Sea, where they would only have been sitting ducks for Russia’s advanced missile defenses.Tensions have escalated with China, as the U.S. Navy and Marines stalk Chinese ships in the South China Sea, well inside the island chains China uses for self defense. The Pentagon is hoping to drag NATO allies into participating in these operations, and the U.S. Air Force plans to shiftmore bombers to new bases in Asia and the Pacific, supported by existing larger bases in Guam, Japan, Australia and South Korea. Meanwhile, despite a promising initial pause and policy review, Biden has decided to keep selling tens of billion dollars worth of weapons to authoritarian regimes in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other Persian Gulf sheikdoms, even as they keep bombing and blockading famine-stricken Yemen. In all these international crises (along with Cuba, Haiti, Iraq, North Korea, Palestine, Syria and Venezuela, which are bedevilled by the same U.S. unilateralism), President Biden and the hawks egging him on are pursuing unilateral policies that ignore solemn commitments in international agreements and treaties, riding roughshod over the good faith of America’s allies and negotiating partners.
Ilargi: Ukraine Warheads - Joe Biden declares a “national emergency”, calls Putin a killer, slaps more sanctions on Russia, for which he has his Foreign Secretary Antony Blinken declare that “Today, we announced actions to hold the Russian Government to account for the SolarWinds intrusion, reports of bounties on U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan, and attempts to interfere in the 2020 U.S. elections,” … and then “invites” Putin for a summit.For the SolarWinds “intrusion”, the US has never provided any evidence at all, the Russian bounties story was -finally- fully debunked well before Blinken made his statement -which makes him look very incompetent-, and the election interference narrative is by now just too dumb to even get into. No evidence for it whatsoever after 2 years of the Mueller investigation, but now Putin’s at it again? Who did he want to win, then? Trump again, after apparently not even trying in 2016?Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky states that his country should urgently be made a full member of both NATO and the EU, and has his own proxy, Ukraine’s ambassador to Germany, Andriy Melnyk, solemnly claim that not just “The only possibility for this [to prevent alleged invasion plans] is for Ukraine to finally become a NATO member”, but also that “Ukraine has no other choice: either we are part of an alliance such as NATO and are doing our part to make this Europe stronger, or we have the only option – to arm by ourselves, and maybe think about nuclear status again”.… And then Zelensky invites Putin for a summit. In the Donbass, no less.These people are all as insincere as they possibly could be, but they trust that this doesn’t matter anymore. The western media have been planting the “Putin is a monster” seeds in their readers and viewers for many years now, and critical thought has long since left the building. Yes, that is the ultimate effect of what’s called propaganda, and as long as the sheeple “victims” don’t recognize it as such, it works like a charm. I’ve been wondering for a long time why Boris Yeltsin appointed Putin as his successor in 1999, and I can’t find much information on it. Yeltsin was a US asset, and sold out his country to the CIA and a bunch of CIA-asset homegrown oligarchs. I’ve always suspected that when Yeltsin left, he felt a lot of regret for what he had done to Russia, and that maybe appointing Putin was his way to try and make up for that. I see people saying that Yeltsin thought Putin was pliable, but I think perhaps he knew exactly how Putin thought.
Two Dozen Senators Tell Biden It Is ‘Past Time’ to Finally Close Guantánamo - Echoing recent demands from human rights advocates and former detainees, two dozens members of the U.S. Senate Democratic Caucus on Friday pressed President Joe Biden to finally close the Guantánamo Bay offshore military prison, where 40 men are still being held despite global outrage over the facility and its long record of torture.“As a symbol of lawlessness and human rights abuses, the detention facility continues to harm U.S. national security by serving as a propaganda tool for America’s enemies and continues to hinder counterterrorism efforts and cooperation with allies,” declares the letter (pdf), spearheaded by Senate Majority Whip and Judiciary Committee Chair Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) as well as Appropriations Committee Chair Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.).“For nearly two decades, the offshore prison has damaged America’s reputation, fueled anti-Muslim bigotry, and weakened the United States’ ability to counter terrorism and fight for human rights and the rule of law around the world,” the letter continues. “In addition to the $540 million in wasted taxpayer dollars each year to maintain and operate the facility, the prison also comes at the price of justice for the victims of 9/11 and their families, who are still waiting for trials to begin.”In February, National Security Council spokesperson Emily Horne said that “we are undertaking an NSC process to assess the current state of play that the Biden administration has inherited from the previous administration, in line with our broader goal of closing Guantánamo.”White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki subsequently confirmed that shuttering the prison permanently “certainly is our goal and our intention.”Welcoming the White House’s review, the senators point out that all 40 Gitmo detainees are aging, many with complex health problems, and six have been approved for transfer for years, in some cases for over a decade.
More Americans Now Fear "Illegal Immigration" Than COVID, New Poll Finds -A new poll from Pew Research reveals that 48% of those polled believe illegal immigration “a very big problem,” while only 47% consider the coronavirus outbreak to their most pressing concern, which was a lower percentage of Americans than those polled last year.“The survey finds that, for the most part, the public’s views of major problems facing the U.S. are little changed from about a year ago,” Pew Research said.“However, the share of Americans saying the coronavirus is a very big problem has declined 11 percentage points since last June (from 58% to 47%), while the share citing illegal immigration has increased 20 points (from 28% to 48%).”Those polled appeared to give their findings based on what political party lines.“While views of most national problems are divided along partisan lines, including illegal immigration, increasing shares of both Republicans and Democrats rate illegal immigration as a very big problem. Nearly three-quarters of Republicans (72%) say illegal immigration is a major problem, up 29 points since last June.The share of Democrats who say this is a major problem is now 29%, compared with 15% nearly a year ago,” the poll findings said.Read the full poll findings from Pew Research here...
Arizona governor declares state of emergency, sends National Guard troops to border -- Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) has declared a state of emergency and is sending 250 National Guard troops to support local law enforcement at the border with Mexico. The move makes Arizona the first state to declare an emergency as the Biden administration seeks to control the influx of migrants at the border. In recorded remarks, Ducey blasted President Biden’s handling of the surge, saying the administration was "totally divorced from reality." “I said last month that the Biden administration is totally divorced from reality,” Ducey said. “Now, at times it seems like they fully understand the reality and they’re putting their heads in the sand and trying to ignore it anyway.” Ducey’s office said in a statement that the troops will go to border communities to help with medical operations in detention centers, install and maintain border cameras, monitor and collect data from public safety cameras and analyze satellite imagery for smuggling. An initial $25 million will be directed toward the deployment, though it’s unclear how long it would last. Data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection shows that Border Patrol encountered 172,331 migrants in March alone, of which 48,587 were unaccompanied migrant children. Arizona isn’t the first state to send the National Guard to the border. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) sent troops to the border in early March, though he didn’t declare a state of emergency. Meanwhile, former President Trump deployed the National Guard to the border in 2018 before declaring an emergency to build the border wall. Biden ended that emergency order but has kept the Guard presence at the border. The Pentagon said last month that the troop deployment could be extended past an expected fall end date.
US to expand 'do not travel' warning to 80 percent of countries amid COVID-19 spike | TheHill The State Department said on Monday that it will expand its “do not travel” advisory to about 80 percent of countries worldwide amid a COVID-19 spike, Reuters reported.The State Department had already listed 34 countries as “Level 4: Do Not Travel,” including Chad, Kosovo, Kenya, Brazil, Argentina, Haiti, Mozambique, Russia and Tanzania, according to Reuters. Getting to 80 percent would add nearly 130 countries, the news outlet reported. “This alignment better reflects the current, unpredictable, and ever-evolving threat posed by covid-19,” the department said in an email,according to The Washington Post. “We continue to strongly recommend U.S. citizens reconsider all travel abroad, and postpone their trips if possible.” Most Americans were prevented from traveling to many European countries during the pandemic, and Washington has barred nearly all non-U.S. citizens who have recently been in much of Europe, China, Brazil, Iran and South Africa because of variants of the coronavirus that health experts say are more contagious.The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said earlier this month that people who are fully vaccinated against the virus can safely travel at low risk, but CDC Director Rochelle Walensky urged Americans not to do so. "We know that right now we have a surging number of cases. I would advocate against general travel overall," Walensky said, according to Reuters. "We are not recommending travel at this time, especially for unvaccinated individuals."
Senate passes anti-Asian hate crimes bill - The Senate on Thursday passed legislation aimed at combating a rise in hate crimes against Asian Americans during the coronavirus pandemic in a 94-1 vote, with GOP Sen. Josh Hawley (Mo.) the only "no" vote. The bill now goes to the House, where Democrats are expected to soon take up their version of the legislation. Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) said that it was “time to stand up” on anti-Asian hate crimes. A California State University, San Bernardino study that looked at 16 cities found a 149 percent increase in hate crimes targeting Asian Americans in 2020. “By passing this bill we say to the Asian American community that the government is paying attention to them, has heard their concerns and will respond to protect them,” Schumer said. “And second, by passing this bill we’ll send a message to the country that should be all too obvious by now: Hate crimes will not be tolerated,” he added. Thursday’s vote followed days of behind-the-scenes negotiations to try to lock in support for the legislation, which needed at least 60 votes to pass. The bill, spearheaded by Sen. Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii), requires the Justice Department to designate an official to review coronavirus-related hate crimes and beefs up state and local resources. As part of a deal with Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), Hirono changed language in the bill about what guidance the administration would be required to release. The bill initially called for guidance on the "best practices to mitigate racially discriminatory language" describing the coronavirus pandemic. The final bill instead calls for guidance "aimed at raising awareness of hate crimes during the COVID-19 pandemic." Collins, saying that she enjoyed working with Hirono, urged Republicans to support the bill. “In doing so, we can send an unmistakably strong signal that crimes targeting Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders in our country will not be tolerated,” she said. Hirono also worked on legislation from Sens. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) and Jerry Moran (R-Kan.) that aims to strengthen the reporting of hate crimes, offer support for hate crimes training for law enforcement and establish a hate crimes hotline. Senators locked in a final deal on the bill late Wednesday night, allowing for votes on amendments from Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and John Kennedy (R-La.), as well as Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) and Mike Lee (R-Utah). The Cruz-Kennedy amendment would prevent federal funding from going to colleges that “discriminated against Asian Americans in recruitment, application review or admissions.” The Lee amendment requires the Justice Department to investigate whether coronavirus-related restrictions on religious organizations violated the First Amendment. Blackburn's amendment, among other things, would further change the administration's guidance so that it was about how to report hate crimes during the pandemic. All of the GOP amendments needed 60 votes to get added to the bill. None of them got added.
McCarthy to introduce resolution to censure Waters - House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said Monday that he will introduce a resolution to censure Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) for saying that "we've got to get more confrontational" and "we've got to stay on the street" to protest police brutality against Black Americans.McCarthy accused Waters, who chairs the House Financial Services Committee, of inciting violence during the murder trial of former Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin, who's charged with the murder of George Floyd and whose actions set off nationwide protests against racial injustice last summer. "This weekend in Minnesota, Maxine Waters broke the law by violating curfew and then incited violence. Speaker [Nancy] Pelosi [D-Calif.] is ignoring Waters’ behavior—that’s why I am introducing a resolution to censure Rep. Waters for these dangerous comments," McCarthy announced on Twitter.Waters attended a protest against police brutality in nearby Brooklyn Center, Minn., on Saturday following the fatal police shooting of Daunte Wright and told reporters that "we’ve got to get justice in this country, and we cannot allow these killings to continue.""We've got to stay on the street, and we've got to get more active. We've got to get more confrontational. We've got to make sure that they know that we mean business," Waters said. McCarthy could force a procedural vote on his resolution if he files it as a “privileged” resolution, which would trigger a process that requires House floor action within two legislative days.
House GOP's McClain responds to Pelosi calling her 'that woman' -- Rep. Lisa McClain (R-Mich.) on Monday said she would not apologize after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) called her out as "that woman"while McClain made remarks on the House floor Monday criticizing Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) who called for racial justice advocates in Minnesota. over the weekend to "get more confrontation."“As "that woman," no I won't apologize for calling out the double standards that you have set @SpeakerPelosi,” McClain wrote on Twitter. Waters on Saturday night, during a visit to Brooklyn Center, Minn., the town where 20-year-old Daunte Wright, a Black man, was shot and killed by a police officer last week, was asked what protesters in the streets should do if former Minneapolis Police officer Derek Chauvin, whose trial in the killing of another Black man, George Floyd, was taking place nearby, is found not guilty. “We’ve got to stay on the street, and we’ve got to get more active, we’ve got to get more confrontational, we’ve got to make sure that they know that we mean business,” Waters responded.Waters’ comments, which came two days before closing arguments in Chauvin's murder trial, sparked backlash among Republicans, with several members, including McClain, accusing Waters of inciting violence."Once again, this weekend, we saw a member of the majority openly call for more confrontation in a Minneapolis suburb," McClain said during her floor speech. "That very night, there was a drive-by shooting in that community where police and the National Guardsmen were targeted. If this were reversed, if this was said by a Republican, you know that the majority in this chamber would move to strip that representative of their committees and possibly to expel them from Congress."When asked by a reporter if Waters should apologize for her comments,Pelosi said she did not, and instead called out McClain for her remarks."That woman on the floor should be apologizing for what she said," Pelosi said Monday, referencing McClain's speech. McClain on Twitter shortly after Pelosi's comments said she would not apologize for calling out “double standards” she believed were set by the House speaker.
Privacy Champions Urge Passage of ‘Fourth Amendment Is Not For Sale’ Act - Federal agencies have taken advantage of legal loopholes to collect massive amounts of personal information from cell phone and internet users without congressional or judicial authorization for years, but that practice is being challenged by a bipartisan and bicameral group of lawmakers who introduced legislation on Wednesday that would prevent the U.S. government from buying individuals’ information from data brokers without a court order.Led by Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), a group of 20 senators introduced the Fourth Amendment Is Not For Sale Act (pdf) in the upper chamber of Congress. Reps. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.) and Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.) also unveiled an equivalent bill in the House.By closing major loopholes in federal privacy laws—including the Electronic Communications Privacy Act and the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act—the newly proposed legislation seeks to protect everyone in the U.S. from unlawful searches and seizures, one of the key civil liberties spelled out in the Bill of Rights.In a press release (pdf), the lawmakers said that “while there are strict rules for consumer-facing companies—phone companies like AT&T and Verizon and tech companies like Google and Facebook—loopholes in the law currently permit data brokers and other firms without a direct relationship to consumers to sell Americans’ private information to the government without a court order.”Media reports in the past year “revealed that a data broker named Venntel is selling location data collected from Americans’ smartphones to government agencies,” the lawmakers continued. “While it would be unlawful for app developers to sell data directly to the government, a legal loophole permits app developers to sell data to a data broker, which can then sell that data to the government.”“Another controversial data broker, Clearview.AI, has compiled a massive database of billions of photos, which it downloaded in bulk from Facebook, LinkedIn, Twitter, and YouTube, in violation of their terms of service,” the lawmakers added. “Clearview.AI uses these illicitly obtained photos to power a facial recognition service it sells to government agencies, which they can search without a court order.”The Fourth Amendment Is Not For Sale Act would require law enforcement agencies to obtain a court order before accessing data about people through third-party brokers that “aggregate and sell information like detailed user location data, surreptitiously gathered from smartphone apps or other sources,” The Verge reported Wednesday.
Facebook intensified political censorship in advance of Chauvin verdict -On Monday, Facebook announced it would “limit content that could lead to civil unrest or violence” in advance of the jury verdict in the trial of Derrick Chauvin, the Minneapolis police officer who was found guilty Tuesday on all three counts for the murder of George Floyd last year. In a Facebook Newsroom post, Vice President of Content Policy Monika Bickert adopted a law-and-order stance, writing that company moderators were “working around the clock” to prevent “online content from being linked to offline harm and doing our part to keep our community safe.” Furthermore, using language typical of the ongoing law enforcement assault on protesters over the past year, Bickert wrote that Facebook had deemed Minneapolis to be a “high-risk location” and that “we will continue to monitor events on the ground to determine if additional locations will be deemed as temporary, high-risk locations.” In an effort to take the repressive edge off of her pronouncement, Bickert wrote that Facebook was also “working to protect the memory of George Floyd and members of the Floyd family from harassment and abuse.” She added, Facebook will remove any posts that “praises, celebrates or mocks George Floyd’s death.” In a remarkable portion of the Facebook announcement, Bickert states the social media platform considers Derrick Chauvin to be a “public figure” who has “voluntarily placed himself in the public eye” and that the company policy against “bullying and harassment” means “we will remove attacks” on the now-convicted murderer “that are severe.” The final section of the Facebook Newsroom announcement reiterates that the platform is enlisting “third-party fact-checking partners” and special tools to “ensure that potential misinformation is flagged.” Confirming the cooperation of the Facebook content regime with the state apparatus, Bickert concludes that “given the risk of violence following the announcement of the verdict,” the company will remain “in close contact with local, state and federal law enforcement.”
Abrams goes viral for response to GOP senator's question on Georgia law - Former gubernatorial candidate and voting rights activist Stacey Abrams (D) went viral on social media for her response to a GOP senator’s request to list all the provisions she objects to in the Peach State’s recent controversial voting law. During a Tuesday Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on voting rights, Republican Sen. John Kennedy (La.) asked Abrams if she believes the Georgia voting bill signed into law by Gov. Brian Kemp (R) last month is “racist.” “I think there are provisions of it that are racist, yes,” she responded. Kennedy then asked the former Georgia Democratic gubernatorial nominee to “give” him a “list of the provisions that you object to.” Abrams, who founded the voting rights advocacy group Fair Fight Action, proceeded to list the components of the bill that she says would place unfair disadvantages on certain segments of the population, including voters in minority groups and low-income residents. “It shortens the federal run-off period from nine weeks to four weeks. It restricts the time a voter can request and return an absentee ballot application,” she began before commenting on the provision that requires voters to present a photo ID when participating in absentee voting. Abrams added that this provision would make Georgia “only the fourth state in the nation to require voters to put at risk their identity” before she was interrupted by Kennedy. “What else?” he questioned. The former Georgia state representative continued to list other provisions she opposes, including limits on the number of ballot drop box locations and its ban on “nearly all-out-of precinct votes.” “Meaning that if you get to a precinct and you are in line for four hours and you get to the end of the line and you are not there between 5 and 7 p.m., you have to start all over again,” she added. “OK. What else? Is that everything?” the Louisiana senator said. “No, it is not,” Abrams replied before letting out a quick laugh. “No, sir.” Abrams pointed out that the law allows precincts to have shortened voting windows, which she said “may have an effect on voters who cannot vote during business hours.” She then started to move on to another provision before Kennedy interrupted, “OK. I get the idea.” Several Twitter users praised Abrams for her handling of Kennedy’s questions, with former Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander (D) writing that Abrams’s “professionalism never comes at the expense of passion.”
House passes pot banking bill with bipartisan support - The U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill that would give state-authorized marijuana businesses easier access to banking services. The bill, HR 1996, called the SAFE Banking Act, would prohibit federal banking regulators from penalizing banks and other depository institutions for providing banking services to cannabis businesses. It passed Monday night on a 321-101 bipartisan vote. A total of 36 states and four territories have authorized the use of marijuana for medical purposes and 17 states have authorized it for recreational use. However, the drug is still considered a prohibited substance under the federal Controlled Substances Act and banks that provide services to cannabis businesses can be penalized under federal money laundering laws. The legislation passed the House with bipartisan support in 2019, but it was ignored by the Republican-controlled Senate. Democrats are optimistic for the chances of the measure now that their party controls the chamber, though Republicans can still block most legislation. Sens. Jeff Merkley, an Oregon Democrat, and Steve Daines, a Montana Republican, introduced the Senate companion bill. It currently has 32 cosponsors, including six Republicans, but the measure will still require more support to reach the 60-vote threshold needed to advance in the chamber. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has said he wants to work toward lifting the federal ban on cannabis. He is currently drafting legislation with Senate Finance Chair Ron Wyden or Oregon and Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey that proposes removing marijuana from the controlled substances list and regulate it on the federal level. The SAFE Banking Act falls far short of what many cannabis companies would like to see in the U.S., a full federal green light, or at least decriminalization, for marijuana.
Pot banking bill's closer to finish line, but Democrats could sabotage it — Senate Democrats’ plan to push for comprehensive cannabis reform could spell trouble for financial institutions seeking legislation to help them serve legal marijuana businesses. The House once again passed legislation on Tuesday to make it easier for banks and credit unions to offer loans and accounts to cannabis businesses in states where the drug is legal. On previous attempts, the bill had died in the Senate when the chamber was controlled by the Republicans, including some powerful members who were uninterested in easing the distribution of a substance still banned under federal law. Democrats now hold a razor thin advantage in the Senate. But any legislation still requires 60 votes and a marijuana banking bill is not a slam dunk because Democrats are more focused on legalizing cannabis than piecemeal reforms. That worries industry advocates who hoped Congress would take an easier, more targeted path. “How do you eat an elephant? One bite at a time,” said Ryan Donovan, chief advocacy officer at the Credit Union National Association. “To take the metaphor a little further, this bite is ready." Several Republicans have supported the Secure and Fair Enforcement Banking Act, or SAFE Banking Act, which passed the House 321-101. It would bar federal regulators from penalizing financial institutions that serve marijuana-related businesses in states that legalized the substance. In the past, powerful Senate Republicans like former Banking Committee Chairman Mike Crapo of Idaho stopped the bill dead in its tracks. The Democratic gains in the 2020 elections appeared to shift the tide in the bill's favor, raising hopes particularly in states with fast-growing cannabis sectors that Congress would remove legal obstacles to businesses accessing financial services. But key Democrats now say they do not want to focus just on marijuana banking reforms without making other changes, such as looking at sentencing for those incarcerated for marijuana offenses. “I am willing to look at moving on the SAFE Act, but with it needs to come sentencing reform,” Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, told the Cleveland Plain Dealer in February. Yet broad-based reforms potentially decriminalizing the substance and expunging marijuana arrest records would face an uphill battle, while the odds of passing comprehensive cannabis reform to legalize the substance in the House and Senate are slim.
“It’s Totally Insane. Someone Made A Million On Dogecoin With His Stimulus Check" - - “What happened with Dogecoin Dad?” asked Jackson on FaceTime. I smiled. Dogecoin jumped from $0.06 to $0.47 - a 7.8x weekly jump to a $60bln+ market cap. “It’s totally insane,” he said Friday night, back from lacrosse practice, sitting down to study, life as a plebe. “Are your buddies trading crypto now?” I asked. “One supposedly made a million on Dogecoin with his stimulus check,” said Jackson, eyes wide. “Not possible Jax, at today’s panic high it was up just 77x this year, and you guys only got $1,400 checks,” I said. “He bought it with last year’s stimulus,” explained Jackson. “Still doesn’t add up. Dogecoin is only up 165x since the beginning of 2020,” I said, shrugging, the meaning of money quietly slipping away.
JPMorgan Warns of Bitcoin Weakness as Futures Get Liquidated - The last few times Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou witnessed such negative price action in Bitcoin, buyers returned in time to prevent deeper slumps. This time, the JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategist is worried. If the largest cryptocurrency isn’t able to break back above $60,000 soon, momentum signals will collapse, strategists led by Panigirtzoglou wrote in a note Tuesday. It’s likely traders including Commodity Trading Advisers (CTAs) and crypto funds were at least partly behind the buildup of long Bitcoin futures in recent weeks, as well as the unwind in past days, they said. “Over the past few days Bitcoin futures markets experienced a steep liquidation in a similar fashion to the middle of last February, middle of last January or the end of last November,” the strategists said. “Momentum signals will naturally decay from here for several months, given their still elevated level.” In those three previous instances, the overall flow impulse was strong enough to allow Bitcoin to quickly break out above the key thresholds, yielding further buildups in position by momentum traders, JPMorgan noted. “Whether we see a repeat of those previous episodes in the current conjuncture remains to be seen,” the strategists said. The likelihood it will happen again seems lower because momentum decay seems more advanced and thus more difficult to reverse, they added. Flows into Bitcoin funds also appear weak, they said. Bitcoin rose as high as $64,870 around the time of the Nasdaq listing of Coinbase Global Inc., but has retreated back to $55,000. The cryptocurrency is still up about 90% year-to-date.The coin, down five of the last six sessions, is struggling to overtake its 50-day moving average around $56,819. For many chartists, that’s a bearish indicator since it tends to determine price momentum trends. Should Bitcoin be unable to breach its short-term trend line, it could move lower and test the $50,000 level, about a 10% decline from where it’s currently trading.
Wall Street’s Mega Bank CEOs To Be Hauled Before Congress in May; Nobody Will Say Why - Pam Martens - We’ve been closely monitoring the Senate Banking and House Financial Services Committees for the past 15 years. We can think of no other time when the Committees issued a joint statement to announce they were hauling the most powerful men on Wall Street to testify, without offering a scintilla of information on the topic of the hearing. The press statement simply indicated that the Senate Banking Committee would hold its hearing on Wednesday, May 26 at 10 a.m. and the House Financial Services Committee would hold its hearing the following day on Thursday, May 27 at 12 noon. The announcement indicated that the following CEOs are scheduled to testify: Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase; David Solomon of Goldman Sachs; Jane Fraser of Citigroup; James Gorman of Morgan Stanley; Brian Moynihan of Bank of America; and Charles Scharf of Wells Fargo.The joint press release did not give a title for the hearings nor the topic for the hearings. There is nothing on the websites for either Committee that sheds any further light on the matter. The only conclusion that we can draw is that more than a month before the hearings are set to be conducted, the Chairs of these two Committees – Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) and Maxine Waters (D-CA) – wanted to send a message to Wall Street’s CEOs that they have them in their crosshairs. If past is prologue, which we pray it is not, the hearings will use such a buckshot approach to questioning the witnesses that there will be no meaningful takeaway to the public from the hearings. In April of 2019, when CEOs from the same banks appeared before the House Financial Services Committee, the topics ranged from the banks’ financing of fossil fuel companies; to “pink lining” (discriminatory practices against women); to racial preferences in hiring and promotion; to Jamie Dimon’s failure to pay his bank tellers enough to raise a child without going into debt; and Wall Street’s decades long practice of sending all customers and employee claims of wrongdoing into its own private justice system called mandatory arbitration – effectively closing the nation’s courthouse doors and pitting David against Goliath in the pursuit of justice against the most rigged and historically corrupt industry in America. While each of these issues are critical to the national debate, dumping them all into one hearing where the Congressional questioner together with the witness get just a combined five minutes does a disservice to the seriousness of each issue. In fact, this approach has served to hold back change on Wall Street as news reporters simply grab the single most titillating detail from each hearing and put that in a headline.
Senator Elizabeth Warren Appears to Know Something About Wall Street’s Dark Pools and the Collapse of Archegos Hedge Fund - Pam Martens --On Tuesday, March 30, Senator Elizabeth Warren provided the following statement to CNBC regarding the blowup of the Archegos Capital Management hedge fund.“Archegos’ meltdown had all the makings of a dangerous situation — largely unregulated hedge fund, opaque derivatives, trading in private dark pools, high leverage, and a trader who wriggled out of the SEC’s enforcement.”All of the elements of that statement were well known at that point, except one. No one in mainstream media at that time, or since, was talking about Wall Street’s Dark Pools in connection with the implosion of Archegos. (Dark Pools are opaque, thinly regulated trading platforms that function much like private stock exchanges operating inside the biggest banks on Wall Street. Through some twisted reasoning by the SEC, the banksare even allowed to trade shares of their own bank’s stock.) Warren is a member of the Senate Banking Committee and would be privy to any regulatory briefings that might have occurred on the implosion of the highly leveraged Archegos hedge fund that has thus far produced acknowledged losses of at least $8 billion among Global Systemically Important Banks (GSIBs).The Senate Banking Committee has called a hearing for May 26 and will be hauling the CEOs of the six largest banks on Wall Street to testify. (Curiously, the topics to be covered have yet to be announced.) All of the banks called to testify own their own Dark Pools except for Wells Fargo, which shuttered its Dark Pool in 2014. In addition to owning their own Dark Pools, four firms have teamed up to jointly own the Dark Pool known as EBXL Level ATS. (ATS is an acronym for Alternative Trading System which is the polite phrasing that the SEC prefers for Dark Pools.) The joint owners of EBXL Level ATS are Credit Suisse, Citigroup, Merrill Lynch (part of Bank of America) and Fidelity. The CEOs that have been called to the May 26 hearing are: Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase; David Solomon of Goldman Sachs; Jane Fraser of Citigroup; James Gorman of Morgan Stanley; Brian Moynihan of Bank of America; and Charles Scharf of Wells Fargo. We decided to take a look at the Dark Pool trading data (that is provided on a delayed basis and lumped into a full week total) by Wall Street’s chummy self-regulator, FINRA. It shows that one of the largest stock holdings of Archegos, ViacomCBS Class B common stock, had an average weekly trading volume of 11.4 million shares in the seven weeks leading up to the week of March 22, 2021 – the week in which Archegos exploded. That week, when Archegos could not meet its margin calls, the Wall Street banks that had made highly-leveraged loans to Archegos against the ViacomCBS stock as collateral, began panic selling ViacomCBS.As a result of the panic selling, from its closing price of $97.35 on Friday, March 19 to its closing price on Friday, March 26 of $48.23, ViacomCBS lost 50.4 percent of its market value. It has not recovered. This morning it opened for trading at $37.65.
Latest Filings in Devastating Lawsuit Against Bank of America, Credit Suisse, and Bayer Board Members and Executives Over Disastrous Monsanto Acquisition - -Yves Smith --Even though Covid has produced clogged courts, cases are still moving forward, including a series of cases using similar, novel legal arguments to storm the barricades of incestuously and poorly managed major European companies. We’ve written the most about Bayer, which is in the dock for its disastrous, executive and banker serving acquisition of Monsanto. Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, UBS, Barclays and Volkswagen are also in the crosshairs in parallel cases detailing their corporate dereliction of duty. Even though the misconduct and the destruction of value has been glaring, European shareholders have an uphill road in trying to gain restitution. However, as we’ll explain below, by virtue of having ADRs and significant US shareholdings and operation, the managements, boards, and advisers to these companies can be hauled into court in the US. And that’s where the fun begins. We’ve posted the latest round of filings, all rejoinders to arguments made by the defendants in the Bayer case. But the Bayer case, like its siblings, are derivative lawsuits, which make for complicated lawyering. So we’ll review the foundations before continuing to the latest round of jousting. We’ll start by quoting an August 2020 post: Each suit targets an epic level of value destruction, but they are not shareholder suits. They are derivative lawsuits, in which a shareholder steps in to act on behalf of a company that has been done wrong, typically by key members of its management and board. Important advisers may also be targets. The novel feature in these cases is suing in New York state court but using the parent company’s governing law, which for Bayer is the German Stock Corporation Act as the basis for asserting causes of action. Notice here the low bar for misconduct: simple negligence, plus the managers and board members bear the burden of proof that they behaved well! So the linchpin of these cases is getting a non-captured court to measure corporate conduct against these standards. The original filing did a devastating job of describing why Bayer was so keen to do the horrific Monsanto, and on such terrible terms: the above-mentioned all cash offer, which it funded by borrowing boatloads of debt. Bayer was small enough in the world of ever-growing chemical and Pharma behemoths to make for a nice meal. Acquisitive Pfizer had just had a big deal scuppered for legal reasons, and Bayer’s management worried it might be the next target. It settled quickly on Monsanto despite or one might argue because of its terrible reputation; it served as a poisoned pill. The litany of horrors goes on. Bayer was unable to do proper due diligence by being too close a competitor. Monsanto had to sell a trophy asset for anti-trust reasons….yet Bayer didn’t demand a price adjustment. The acquisition process dragged on long enough that the WHO had named glysophate a probable carcinogen, yet Bayer didn’t beat a retreat. Bayer believed the scientists who insisted that glysophate hadn’t been proven to cause cancer, when the WHO designation was more than enough to set off a tsunami of product liability lawsuits, many of which garnered eye-popping awards (among the ugly facts that came out was that Monsanto employees wore hazmat-type gear when working with glysophate yet made no warnings about the need to wear protective coverings to consumers). Mind you, this is only a partial recap; you can find more gory details here.
Crypto firm Paxos receives OCC approval to form national trust bank — The cryptocurrency firm Paxos National Trust has received preliminary conditional approval by the Office of the Comptroller of Currency for a national trust charter, the agency announced Friday.The company had filed its application with the OCC to become a national trust in December. Dan Burstein, general counsel and chief compliance officer at Paxos, wrote in a blog post at the time that company would maintain its New York State Department of Financial Services trust charter but that a national charter would give it the flexibility to operate across state lines.Unlike many banks, national trusts are not required to have federal deposit insurance, although an institution can seek to accept deposits.“We see significant benefits in having both a nationally and state regulated bank,” said Burstein in a new blog post on Friday. “With separate oversight and jurisdiction on both levels, Paxos implicitly demonstrates how our operations meet higher standards than others in our field.”The company runs the itBit cryptocurrency exchange, and its Crypto Brokerage is behind PayPal’s service that lets U.S. users buy, hold and sell cryptocurrency directly from their PayPal digital wallet.In its approval letter, the OCC wrote that Paxos will be an uninsured national bank and its operations will be limited to those of a trust company. Those include custody for digital assets and other cryptocurrency services related to payment, exchange and trading. In the letter, the OCC noted that it received one comment letter signed by a number of trade groups representing banks that objected to the proposed charter and requested more information about Paxos's business model and operations. Paxos is one of several cryptocurrency companies to seek national oversight by the OCC in recent months. BitPay filed its application the same week as Paxos. In January, the OCC granted a national trust charter to the digital asset platform Anchorage.
Groups urge OCC to examine bank's involvement in student loan product — A coalition of consumer advocacy groups wants the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to investigate a Virginia bank's involvement in a student lending product it claims skirts consumer protection laws. In an April 20 letter addressed to acting Comptroller Blake Paulson, the groups urged the agency to scrutinize the partnership between Blue Ridge Bank of Martinsville, Va., and MentorWorks Education Capital, a certified community development financial institution based in Boston. The bank issues income share agreements — a non-traditional type of financing where students pledge some of their post-graduation income — developed by the CDFI. The problem, consumer advocates say, is that many ISA providers claim that their product is not technically a form of credit, meaning there is no requirement to comply with state or federal consumer credit protection laws, such as the Equal Credit Opportunity Act. “MentorWorks, whose ISAs Blue Ridge Bank originates, falls into this pattern, saying that its ISAs are ‘not a loan’ and describing ISAs generally as ‘student loan alternatives,” the letter said. “However, legal experts have exhaustively debunked these claims and have firmly established that ISAs meet the definitions of credit and loans under relevant consumer protection statutes.” The danger for banks, the letter argued, is that working with providers operating in a legal gray zone could carry “substantial legal and reputational risks.” The letter was spearheaded by the Student Borrower Protection Center. It was signed by representatives of the Americans for Financial Reform Education Fund, California Reinvestment Coalition, Center for Responsible Lending, Consumer Reports, and the National Consumer Law Center. Fair-lending violations are among the potential risks banks for involved in ISAs, the groups said. They noted that ISA providers consider which school a student attended and the type of degree earned as factors in determining costs and terms of the product. "Given that income levels, college selection, and major choice are all closely associated with race in the U.S., allowing for differences in ISA pricing based on borrowers’ educational background opens the door for fair lending violations,” the letter said.
Delay in naming OCC leader could hurt Democrats’ agenda — As President Biden took office in January, leadership vacancies atop the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency were seen as opportunities for the new administration to have an immediate impact on financial regulation. While the White House moved fast to name an acting CFPB director and nominate a permanent head of the bureau, it has failed to appoint even an interim OCC chief. Three months into the president's term, analysts say the administration is losing time if it intends to unwind Trump policies. “The vacancy at the OCC has gone on too long,” said Aaron Klein, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. “The result is an agency that remains on autopilot from the Trump administration.” Brian Brooks, the outspoken former acting comptroller appointed by President Trump, left in January. The baton then went to Blake Paulson. A former OCC examiner, Paulson has largely kept a low profile, but a recent action has alarmed progressives who suggest he may be trying to keep Brooks' agenda in place. “I've been told there have been some decisions along the way that suggest Paulson was very much sympathetic to the Brian Brooks approach … [and] that Paulson was continuing to sort of operate as if Brian Brooks is still there,” said a financial services lobbyist who spoke on the condition of anonymity. Earlier this month, Paulson sent a letter to congressional leaders urging them not to invalidate a Brooks policy known as the "true lender" rule, which consumer groups say enables nonbanks to evade regulatory scrutiny. The letter was reported by Politico. Nominating a permanent comptroller has been complicated by an intraparty dispute among Democrats. The early favorite, former Treasury Department official Michael Barr, drew opposition from Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown. Mehrsa Baradaran, a law professor at the University of California at Irvine, has also been mentioned as a contender, but the position remains in limbo. Most legal experts agree the administration could have named its own acting comptroller on day one. As the delay has dragged into its fourth month, analysts say the lack of action is inexplicable. The OCC is technically a bureau of the Treasury Department, and in the absence of Senate confirmation, the title of acting comptroller would fall to whoever is designated by Secretary Janet Yellen as agency's "first deputy comptroller."
OCC seeks additional $11M from three former Wells Fargo executives -Federal regulators are seeking millions of additional dollars in penalties from three former Wells Fargo executives, escalating the legal fight over culpability for the company’s phony-accounts scandal. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency now wants $10 million from former community banking executive Claudia Russ Anderson, up from the $5 million it had previously sought. The agency is seeking a $7 million penalty from former chief auditor David Julian, up from $2 million before, and $1.5 million from onetime executive audit director Paul McLinko, up from $500,000. The proposed increases came to light in recently filed court documents and are the latest salvos in the OCC’s response to one of the most consequential U.S. banking scandals in recent years. Wells Fargo has paid billions of dollars in penalties after admitting that its employees opened millions of accounts without customers’ permission between 2002 and 2016. “The unauthorized activities were so systemic and pervasive that even senior leaders could not escape sales practices misconduct. The former Chief Risk Officer’s wife received two unauthorized debit cards,” the OCC wrote in one recent legal filing. “Employees even opened unauthorized accounts for customers’pets.” The cases against former Wells Fargo executives represent one of the largest efforts ever by U.S. regulators to punish individual bankers. The OCC has reached settlements with former CEO John Stumpf, who agreed last year to pay a $17.5 million penalty, and six other individuals whose monetary payments totaled approximately $8.5 million. The cases against Russ Anderson, Julian and McLinko, which were filed 15 months ago, are currently scheduled to go to trial on Sept. 14 in Sioux Falls, S.D. The OCC, which is Wells Fargo’s primary regulator, alleges that the three individual defendants failed to perform their duties and responsibilities adequately, which contributed to systemic problems at the bank.
AI enables banks to spot bias claims in customers' complaints - In one 2020 complaint to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, a consumer echoed the words of George Floyd to describe an experience with a financial company, saying "you all will not let me breathe." The consumer wanted to know why the firm would "not take their knee off ... my neck?" Another criticized a company for its approach to sexual identity issues. “The employees refused to be sensitive to my pronouns’ and name change," the consumer said. "As a result, my account was closed after years of torture from this credit card company." Such complaints showing up in the CFPB's public complaint portal could have reputational repercussions for a financial institution if they point to discriminatory employees inside an institution. But artificial intelligence offers solutions for firms to analyze complaint data to get ahead of risks. “It only takes one complaint to drive your institution to where you don’t want to be,” said Marcia Tal, a former 25-year veteran of decision management at Citigroup who founded the New York artificial intelligence firm Tal Solutions. Other AI firms analyze the CFPB data and some financial firms do it in-house, but Tal's company is one of the first to focus on using the CFPB's complaint portal to diagnose cases of bias in an institution's customer-facing teams. Seeing Floyd's words like that in a complaint after his killing last year at the hands of Minneapolis police would raise an immediate risk management concern for a company, Tal said. She noted that similar language referencing Floyd's death had come up in six other complaints in the CFPB portal. (The names of institutions in CFPB complaints with such details are typically blocked out.) Tal said firms should worry about potential signs of bias in connection with a consumer being denied a loan, but consumers also raise social justice concerns in complaints on credit reporting, managing a bank account, or struggling to pay bills due to COVID. “We’re trying to get ahead of all these different pain points that are a risk to institutions,” Tal said. One consumer posted a complaint in September 2020 referring to multiple companies that "will not let me breathe and they stubbornly refuse to take their knees off my neck." Another complaint filed in February 2021 stated: "And simply because they have their foot on my neck, they charge fees so that this account — which is all cash, loses value every month." Using AI to identify signs of bias within an organization gives companies a head start to prepare for any action taken by the CFPB.
REvil Group Extorts Apple In $50 Million Ransomware Hack Of Supplier Quanta - Hackers behind the REvil ransomware have claimed to have stolen Apple's blueprints for its latest products. REvil, also known as Sodinokibi, published a blog post that said it commandeered Apple product data after infiltrating the computer network of Quanta Computer Inc. This Taiwanese company is a key supplier to Apple and is the largest laptop manufacturer in the world. In a message posted on REvil's 'Happy Blog,' a dark web portal where the ransomware gang terrorizes victims and leaks data, they said Quanta and Apple have so far declined to pay to retrieve the stolen data. Shortly after, hackers released Macbook schematics and threatened to publish new data every day until both companies paid a multi-million dollar ransom for the return of the data. Here's part of the REvil's 'Happy Blog' post:"In order not to wait for the upcoming Apple presentations, today we, the REvil group, will provide data on the upcoming releases of the company so beloved by many.Tim Cook can say thank you Quanta.From our side, a lot of time has been devoted to solving this problem. Quanta has made it clear to us that it does not care about the data of its customers and employees, thereby allowing the publication and sale of all data we have." The post went on to say that it has "large quantities of confidential drawings and gigabytes of personal data with several major brands, adding that "we recommend that Apple buy back the available data by May 1. More and more files will be added every day." REvil appears to have published Macbook schematics as proof of its data seizure. Quanta acknowledged to Bloomberg in a statement that an attack occurred but didn't go into details. "Quanta Computer's information security team has worked with external IT experts in response to cyberattacks on a small number of Quanta servers," the company said in a statement. "We've reported to and kept seamless communications with the relevant law enforcement and data protection authorities concerning recent abnormal activities observed. There's no material impact on the company's business operation." REvil is now attempting to shake down Quanta or Apple (the world's most valuable company) for a measly $50 million. Hackers from the group are posting new files every day until the payment is received.
NCUA outlines cybersecurity focus for remainder of 2021 - The National Credit Union Administration plans to hold a “tabletop exercise” this summer related to emerging fraud threats and cybersecurity, similar to a session last summer on ransomware. The agency’s board received a cybersecurity briefing Thursday during its monthly board meeting, part of an ongoing series of updates put in place during board member Rodney Hood’s chairmanship. Johnny Davis, NCUA’s special adviser to the chairman on cybersecurity and director of critical infrastructure in the agency’s office of examinations and insurance, suggested cyberattacks tied to the pandemic — particularly scams related to stimulus payments or to COVID-19 itself — continue to be a risk for credit unions.“Making yourself a harder target by addressing cyber-hygiene components remains important,” he said Thursday, emphasizing the importance of organizational awareness and training on cybersecurity practices, along with monitoring access and ensuring adequate and effective security controls are in place. Attacks against virtual private networks are also on the rise, and they can impact supply chains for credit unions, Davis said. Many credit unions began using VPNs more during the pandemic as employees shifted from working at the office to working from home. While the agency has an online FAQ related to supply chain attacks, the August tabletop exercise will focus on that topic as well. Despite those risks, NCUA Vice Chairman Kyle Hauptman noted, many of the losses to the National Credit Union Share Insurance Fund come from internal threats. “Turns out, often the real problem is the employees who are already inside,” he said. Davis suggested the agency has an opportunity to increase required examination criteria to include an “emphasis on certain privacy and security controls that lend themselves to identifying and deterring fraud, especially around access management.” He added that the regulator hopes to offer a forum this fall, tied to Cybersecurity Awareness Month in October, to talk credit union leaders through best practices for implementing insider-threat detection programs and observing for alerts and behaviors to help identify abnormalities that could expose fraud. Hood also suggested Congress reassess the NCUA’s request for third-party vendor oversight once the pandemic ends. For more than two decades, the regulator has asked lawmakers to permit it to oversee vendors for cybersecurity risks, but outside of legislation proposed in late 2019, the oft-repeated request has not gained traction with lawmakers.
Credit unions sound alarm on COVID-19 vaccination scams -- Credit unions are increasingly sounding the alarm about COVID-19 vaccination scams. The scams can come in a variety of forms, but the common denominator involves taking a consumer’s personal or banking data with the promise of securing a vaccination appointment. COVID-19 vaccinations are generally open to anyone age 16 or older and there is no cost to get the shot or make an appointment, but high demand and the often difficult process of getting an appointment have made some Americans susceptible to fraud. “Anytime something like this happens, whether it’s a pandemic or a national disaster, that’s what fraudsters use to scam good people,” said Moe Tayba, senior manager of fraud at the $13.5 billion-asset Alliant Credit Union in Chicago. Alliant posted information warning members about scams in a blog post on its website and in member communications, but it has also informed employees about the risks so that staff in the contact center can assist members who reach out with concerns. “We’re very aware and careful in ensuring our members know it’s out there and to be careful,” Tayba said. “Everybody’s getting the vaccine and they want to be the first in line to get it, but there are some requirements, and you have fraudsters saying, ‘I can get it for you but you have to do this and that.’” Tayba said that, despite Illinois recently opening eligibility up to everyone age 16 and older, vaccines are “not really accessible. ... Even though the medical folks are saying you can go get the vaccine, for example, I can’t even get it. I don’t know how other cities are, but until that goes down I think we will still see scams.” COVID-19 scams may be new, but efforts to defraud consumers are not, and many likened these threats to romance scams, computer take-over attempts or other motives bad actors use to scam consumers. While the risk to individual institutions is comparable to those threats, bigger concerns arise if fraudsters can get a member’s credit card or Social Security number, or gain access to their banking accounts, which could lead to account take-over risks, said Cyndie Martini, CEO of Member Access Processing, a cybersecurity and payments consultancy for credit unions. “Part of the concern is that if they’re asking for information that could be used to complete a card transaction, in that case that is a fraud situation that the credit union has to manage,” Martini said. The good news, Martini said, is that most credit unions have bulked up their fraud prevention tools in the last five years and “are prepared to manage that better than they have been in the past.” The number of credit unions raising awareness about vaccination scams has also risen as the shots become more widely available. With so many Americans already vaccinated, “this is not going to last very long,” Martini said. While credit union marketing departments may want to do a promotional blitz to alert members to the threat, she said, common sense may be the best defense. “As consumers, it’s buyer beware,” Martini said. “At some point, you own the responsibility for doing your homework when you’re on the web. I don’t know what more credit unions can do.”
New law opens Washington credit unions to unlimited public deposits - Washington Gov. Jay Inslee has signed into law a bill that will allow credit unions in the state to accept unlimited public deposits. The measure is expected to go into effect on July 25, according to the Northwest Credit Union Association, which serves CUs in Washington, Oregon and Idaho. Previously, municipalities could only deposit unlimited funds in 34 of the state’s 39 counties, and the new law will allow local governments across the state to deposit their money at a credit union. NWCUA noted that the bill is particularly important for municipalities in Clark, King, Pierce, Snohomish and Spokane counties, which are home to two-thirds of the state’s population. “Credit unions of all sizes and from all areas of the state played a collective roll in explaining to our legislators why this policy was important and also timely during a pandemic-focused virtual legislative session,” said Joe Adamack, NWCUA’s vice president of legislative affairs for Washington, said in an online news announcement. “Like credit unions, local municipalities best know the needs of their community and by their structure, exist to be responsive to the needs of their community. By working with a credit union, local municipalities can earn better returns and pursue innovative partnerships that help everyone succeed.” Only some states allow credit unions to accept public deposits, and the matter has frequently resulted in the industry butting heads with state-level banking trade groups. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo signed legislation in late 2019 allowing credit unions there to accept public funds. This isn’t the first major credit union legislation Inslee has signed in his time as governor. In the spring of 2019, he signed off on a package modernizing the state’s credit union statutes, one of many governors to do so in recent years.
CFPB appeals Ocwen's victory in servicing suit- The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has filed an appeal in its lawsuit against Ocwen Financial after a federal judge dismissed servicing misconduct claims dating to the 2008 financial crisis. The CFPB filed the appeal late Wednesday after all claims against Ocwen were dropped in a case in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida. Judge Kenneth Marra had ruled that nine of the 10 claims filed by the CFPB in a 2017 lawsuit were barred by the 2014 national mortgage settlement and the tenth claim was dismissed by the court. Ocwen had alleged that the CFPB was bound by the terms of the settlement, and the court agreed. Ocwen declared victory and has vowed to fight any appeal. “Ocwen will continue to vigorously defend itself, as we have done throughout the course of this litigation,” Ocwen said in a statement Wednesday. “The Bureau’s allegations regarding Ocwen’s past servicing practices were without merit. We are pleased the Court has entered final judgment in our favor against the CFPB, and has ordered this case closed.” The CFPB had alleged that Ocwen botched basic servicing functions by sending inaccurate monthly statements to borrowers, improperly crediting payments and mishandling taxes and insurance in escrow accounts. Ocwen separately faced significant litigation in 2017 from at least 20 states alleging misconduct dating to the 2008 financial crisis. In October, Ocwen agreed to settle the last state claim, with Florida, by paying $5.1 million and an additional $1 million to resolve any pending loan-modification obligations, the company said. Ocwen has made significant structural changes since the financial crisis after regulators essentially forced former CEO Ron Faris and founder Bill Erbey out of the company. Ocwen also changed its servicing system after its merger in 2018 with PHH.
Consumer bureau rolls out rule to bolster CDC eviction ban -Consumer bureau rolls out rule to bolster CDC eviction ban: The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) on Monday unveiled a rule ordering debt collectors to inform tenants about their rights under a federal eviction ban if they’ve been unable to pay rent during the pandemic.The rule would order any third party debt collector, including attorneys, attempting to collect owed rent on behalf of a landlord to tell tenants that they may be protected from eviction under the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) eviction moratorium. Debt collectors would have to inform tenants about their rights under the CDC ban no later than when the renter receives an eviction notice.“With COVID-19 killing hundreds of Americans every day, kicking families out into the street during this pandemic may literally be a death sentence,” said CFPB acting Director Dave Uejio. I’ve got more here. President Biden last month extended the CDC’s eviction ban through the end of June with millions of households still struggling to find their financial footing amid the coronavirus pandemic. While housing advocates have praised Biden for extending the Trump-era ban, they’ve also blasted the administration for failing to patch the various holes in the order.Landlords that violate the ban can face a $200,000 fine and a year in jail, but not one has faced federal charges for plowing ahead with evictions despite the order.Tenants seeking protection under the ban must fill out a designated form and present it to their landlords."Conservatively, there are probably 1000s of families being evicted every week who are eligible for coverage under the CDC eviction moratorium and appear not to know that they can exercise their rights," said CFPB senior advisor Diane Thompson in a call with reporters.
CFPB rule gives renters right to sue debt collectors over evictions— The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau issued a rule Monday enabling renters to sue debt collectors who fail to disclose the rights of tenants established in a recent federal eviction moratorium. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced the freeze on evictions due to the coronavirus pandemic last year. It prevents evictions in cases where tenants filed a written declaration of their inability to pay. A tenant who has not filed such a declaration can still be evicted. The moratorium ends June 30. The CFPB's interim rule requires debt collectors seeking to evict tenants to provide written notice of their rights under the CDC moratorium. The rule also prohibits debt collectors from misrepresenting tenants’ eligibility for protection from eviction. “No one should be evicted from their home without understanding their rights, and we will hold accountable those debt collectors who move forward with illegal evictions,” said acting CFPB director Dave Uejio in a press release. “We encourage debt collectors to work with tenants and landlords to find solutions that work for everyone.” The CFPB rule clarifies that debt collectors who fail to provide tenants written notice of their rights under the CDC moratorium are in violation of the Fair Debt Collection Practices Act. The rule, which will be effective May 3, applies to third-party debt collectors and attorneys acting on behalf of landlords. On a call with reporters, a senior advisor to Uejio said that there are “probably thousands” of tenants who have been evicted but would have been able to stay in their homes under the CDC moratorium.
FHFA aims to align foreclosure policies with CFPB — The Federal Housing Finance Agency is looking to coordinate its policies with the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau on how mortgage servicers should deal with delinquent borrowers nearing the end of their forbearance periods. The FHFA has had conversations with the Biden administration and is currently working with the CFPB to develop an “exit strategy” for borrowers leaving forbearance in order to prevent a wave of foreclosures, FHFA Director Mark Calabria said Tuesday during a virtual conference held by the Mortgage Bankers Association. “Our intent is to the extent practicable, not always, but to the extent practicable and to the extent that it makes sense, that we align our policies with the administration,” Calabria said. The CFPB proposed earlier this month a new set of rules that would prohibit lenders and servicers from immediately foreclosing on a home once a borrower’s forbearance period ends. The set of rule changes would institute a “special pre-foreclosure review period” that would generally block most servicers from initiating foreclosure proceedings until after Dec. 31. Servicers would also be able to offer simplified loan modification options to borrowers experiencing pandemic-related hardship. The FHFA has extended its moratorium on foreclosures and real estate-owned evictions until June 30 for loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and has also extended the forbearance period for many borrowers struggling due to the COVID-19 pandemic. “I do think that endless forbearance is not the right solution for borrowers or for the industry, so we'll be working with CFPB to offer our perspective on the right timeline,” Calabria said. The CFPB asked for public feedback on whether the Dec. 31 expiration date for the special pre-foreclosure review period is appropriate, and whether there are other steps the agency could take. That could include allowing servicers to initiate foreclosure proceedings if the servicer has made certain steps to work with struggling borrowers.
BankThink: A bipartisan plan to tackle housing insecurity - Lenders and financial institutions play a critical role in creating and preserving affordable housing, and they could see an increase in business if the Affordable Housing Credit Improvement Act introduced last week is enacted. The bipartisan, bicameral legislation would expand and strengthen the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit, a proven public-private investment in our nation’s housing infrastructure.With this legislation, affordable housing developers — and the investors who utilize the Housing Credit — would be able to deepen their impact in serving some of the hardest-to-reach areas nationwide, including rural, tribal and high-cost communities, as well as extremely low-income and formerly homeless residents. Investors, financial institutions, and housing advocates should work side by side to make sure this bill becomes law.Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a serious and growing housing crisis in the United States. Nearly one in four renter households in the U.S. — roughly 11 million — were spending more than half of their income on rent, leaving too little for other necessities like food, medical care and transportation. The effect of housing insecurity — or worse, eviction — on families’ health and educational outcomes was already well known. The pandemic has only made the disparities in our housing markets more severe and more apparent — and made it more obvious that affordable homes are a vital part of the nation’s infrastructure.Since its creation in the Tax Reform Act of 1986, the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit, has been the primary financing source for the production and preservation of affordable rental housing. It has financed nearly 3.5 million apartments since 1986, providing affordable homes to approximately 8 million low-income households, including families, seniors, veterans and people with disabilities. The Housing Credit brings together private-sector resources and oversight by state agencies, resulting in a durable solution to the need for affordable housing. Banks have been crucial to the program’s success, accounting for approximately 85% of the capital invested.The proposed legislation would expand each state’s Low-Income Housing Tax Credit allocation, as well as make it easier to use the credit to acquire and rehabilitate existing affordable homes using Private Activity Bonds. It also increases the maximum Housing Credit allocation to projects in rural and tribal communities to help stimulate affordable housing development in those areas.Together, these increased resources are estimated to finance more than 2 million affordable rental homes over 10 years than would otherwise have been possible — creating nearly 3 million jobs over the same period.
MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 4.50%" --Note: This is as of April 11th. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 4.50%: The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 16 basis points from 4.66% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 4.50% as of April 11, 2021. According to MBA’s estimate, 2.3 million homeowners are in forbearance plans....“The share of loans in forbearance decreased for the seventh straight week and has now dropped 40 basis points in the last two weeks. The forbearance share decreased for all three investor categories, with the rate for portfolio and PLS loans decreasing by 31 basis points this past week – the largest drop across investor categories,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Forbearance exits increased for portfolio and PLS loans but decreased for GSE and Ginnie Mae loans. More than 36 percent of borrowers in forbearance extensions have now exceeded the 12-month mark.”Fratantoni added, “Economic data on home construction and consumer spending in March show a strong housing market and a quickened pace of economic activity. Combined with the homeowner assistance and stimulus payments that many households are receiving, we expect that the forbearance numbers will continue to decline in the months ahead as more individuals regain employment. Homeowners who are still facing hardships and need to extend their forbearance term should contact their servicers.”This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time. Most of the increase was in late March and early April, and has trended down since then.The MBA notes: "Total weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) remained flat relative to the prior week at 0.05%."
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey --From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey: Mortgage applications increased 8.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 16, 2021.... The Refinance Index increased 10 percent from the previous week and was 23 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 6 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 7 percent compared with the previous week and was 57 percent higher than the same week one year ago.“Mortgage rates dropped to their lowest levels in around two months, prompting a small resurgence in refinance activity after six weeks of declines. Borrowers acted on the decrease in rates for most loan types, with both conventional and government refinance applications showing gains,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “The spring housing market also saw a boost from lower rates, with purchase applications – driven by a jump in conventional applications – increasing over 5 percent. MBA expects the purchase market to remain strong, with the recovering job market and supportive demographics fueling housing demand in the months ahead.”Added Kan, “The average loan size for purchase applications increased after a few weeks of declines, as fewer homes available for sale make for a competitive buying market that is accelerating home-price growth.” ...The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($548,250 or less) decreased to 3.20 percent from 3.27 percent, with points increasing to 0.36 from 0.33 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.
CoreLogic: Mortgage Application Fraud Risk Index increased in Q1 -- A few excerpts from CoreLogic: Q1 2021 Mortgage Fraud Brief: The CoreLogic® National Mortgage Application Fraud Risk Index (Index) increased by 11.9% for the first quarter of 2021—from 110 to 122. The year-over-year trend is up 7.7% from Q1 2020 (at 113).Last quarter we noted an uptick in income reasonability alerts for both purchases and refinances and that trend continued in Q1. Valuation alerts increased for all transactions, due to rapid home price increases as demand exceeds supply. We observed a slight increase inoccupancy alerts for refinances, along with a decrease in flipping alerts for purchases. We expect fraud risk to continue to rise in 2021, fueled by an insufficient supply of affordable housing and rising interest rates that will change the purchase/refinance mix. New guidelines on GSE financing for investment and second homes, including a 7% cap and stricter underwriting guidelines have the potential to heighten occupancy misrep motivations. CR Note: This is still low, but something to watch.
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 6.01 million in March --From the NAR: Housing Market Reaches Record-High Home Price and Gains in March: Existing-home sales fell in March, marking two consecutive months of declines, according to the National Association of Realtors®. The month of March saw record-high home prices and gains. While each of the four major U.S. regions experienced month-over-month drops, all four areas welcomed year-over-year gains in home sales.Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, decreased 3.7% from February to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 6.01 million in March. Sales overall climbed year-over-year, up 12.3% from a year ago (5.35 million in March 2020)....Total housing inventory at the end of March amounted to 1.07 million units, up 3.9% from February's inventory and down 28.2% from one year ago (1.49 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 2.1-month supply at the current sales pace, marginally up from February's 2.0-month supply and down from the 3.3-month supply recorded in March 2020. Inventory numbers continue to represent near-historic lows; NAR first began tracking the single-family home supply in 1982. Note: February was revised up from 6.22 million to 6.24 million SAAR. This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.Sales in March (6.01 million SAAR) were down 3.7% from last month, and were 12.3% above the March 2020 sales rate. The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes. According to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.07 million in March from 1.03 million in February. Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.Inventory was down 28.2% year-over-year in March compared to March 2020.Months of supply increased to 2.1 months in March from 2.0 months in February.This was below the consensus forecast. I'll have more later.
Comments on March Existing Home Sales – McBride - Earlier: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 6.01 million in March. A few key points:
- 1) This was the highest sales rate for March since 2006, and the 4th highest sales rate for March on record (behind 2004, 2005, and 2006). Some of the increase over the last nine months was probably related to record low mortgage rates, a move away from multi-family rentals, strong second home buying (to escape the high-density cities), a strong stock market and favorable demographics. Also, the delay in the 2020 buying season pushed the seasonally adjusted number to very high levels over the winter. This means there are going to be some difficult comparisons in the second half of 2021!
- 2) Inventory is very low, and was down 28.2% year-over-year (YoY) in March. Also, as housing economist Tom Lawler has noted, the local MLS data shows even a larger decline in active inventory (the NAR appears to include some pending sales in inventory). Lawler noted: "As I’ve noted before, the inventory measure in most publicly-released local realtor/MLS reports excludes listings with pending contracts, but that is not the case for many of the reports sent to the NAR (referred to as the “NAR Report!”), Since the middle of last Spring inventory measures excluding pending listings have fallen much more sharply than inventory measures including such listings, and this latter inventory measure understates the decline in the effective inventory of homes for sale over the last several months."It seems likely that active inventory is down close to 50% year-over-year.Months-of-supply at 2.1 months is just above the record low of 1.9 months set in December 2020 and January 2021. Inventory will be important to watch in 2021, see: Some thoughts on Housing Inventory
- 3) As usual, housing economist Tom Lawler's forecast was closer to the NAR report than the Consensus. The NAR reported 6.01 million SAAR, Lawler estimated the NAR would report 6.02 million SAAR, and the consensus was 6.17 million SAAR.
This graph shows existing home sales by month for 2020 and 2021.The year-over-year comparisons will be easy in Q2, and then difficult in the second half of the year. The second graph shows existing home sales for each month, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), since 2005. Sales NSA in March (484,000) were 16.3% above sales last year in March (416,000).This was the highest sales for March (NSA) since 2006.
New Home Sales Increase to 1,021,000 Annual Rate in March; Highest Since 2006-The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 1.021 million.The previous three months were revised up sharply. Sales of new single-family houses in March 2021 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,021,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 20.7 percent above the revised February rate of 846,000 and is 66.8 percent above the March 2020 estimate of 612,000. The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate. This was the highest sales rate since 2006. The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply. The months of supply decreased in March to 3.6 months from 4.4 months in February. The all time record high was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. The all time record low is 3.5 months, most recently in October 2020. This is below the low end of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months supply is normal). "The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of March was 307,000. This represents a supply of 3.6 months at the current sales rate." Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke inventory down into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed. The third graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973. The inventory of completed homes for sale is at a record low, and the combined total of completed and under construction is a little lower than normal. The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate). In March 2021 (red column), 97 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 59 thousand homes were sold in March. The all time high for March was 127 thousand in 2005, and the all time low for March was 28 thousand in 2011. This was well above expectations, and sales in the three previous months were revised up sharply. I'll have more later today.
A few Comments on March New Home Sales – McBride - New home sales for March were reported at 1,021,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). Sales for the previous three months were revised up significantly. This was well above consensus expectations for March and the highest sales rate since 2006. Clearly low mortgages rates, low existing home supply, and favorable demographics have boosted sales. A surging stock market has probably helped new home sales too. Earlier: New Home Sales Increase to 1,021,000 Annual Rate in March; Highest Since 2006. This graph shows new home sales for 2020 and 2021 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). The year-over-year comparisons are easy in the first half of 2021 - especially in March and April. However, sales will likely be down year-over-year in August through October - since the selling season was delayed in 2020. And on inventory: note that completed inventory (3rd graph in previous post) is at record lows, but inventory under construction is closer to normal. This graph shows the months of supply by stage of construction. The inventory of completed homes for sale was at 37 thousand in March tying the record low of 37 thousand in 2013 (when sales were much lower). That is about 0.4 months of completed supply (record low). The inventory of new homes under construction, and not started, is about 3.2 months - at the low end of normal.
Homebuilder Comments in Mid-April: Crazy Price Increases, Offers Way Over Ask, Costs Increasing Quickly - Some twitter comments from Rick Palacios Jr., Director of Research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting Some interesting housing color from mid-April around the country home builder channel check. Bunch of market commentary to follow...will try to hit most top markets. (a few excerpts)
#SaltLakeCity home builder mid-April color: “Still have 10x buyers to available homes to buy. Went to 'highest/ best' offer system March 1st & offers over asking price are shocking. Most offers are 10+% over ask, that's after raised base prices $10K to $20K+ with each release.”
#Austin home builder mid-April color: “Super high demand. Volume controlled with release process, otherwise would be unbearable. Some price increases are $100K between releases.”
#Dallas home builder mid-April color: “Limiting sales in 100% of communities. Can’t sell ahead as costs are rising too quickly. We may stop selling and become a spec builder until costs stabilize.”
#LasVegas home builder mid-April color: “Only selling homes under construction, no dirt sales due to the variability of construction costs. Waiting lists at pretty much every community and restricting investors.”
#RaleighDurham home builder mid-April color: “Opening 4 new neighborhoods and seeing tremendous pre-sale interest (checks, etc… prior to us releasing prices).”
#Nashville home builder mid-April color: “Limiting most of our sales to inventory releases when a home is through the framing stage where a reasonably accurate delivery date can be given.”
#Charlotte home builder mid-April color: “Capping sales at 4 per month for each community, which is frustrating customers. Finished lots are golden.”
#RiversideSanBernardino home builder mid-April color: “Anyone walking in is a buyer. There are no looky-loos. Raising prices at an obscene level.”
#OrangeCounty home builder mid-April color: “Raising prices materially each sales phase release. It’s crazy, but so are our costs. Many of the homes are being bought by investors.”
#Portland home builder mid-April color: “Can’t price them high enough…they’re selling anyway…for now, at least.”
#Boise home builder mid-April color: “Restricting sales until closer to homes being finished.”
#DC home builder mid-April color: “Increasing prices pretty much everywhere.”
#Boston home builder mid-April color: “When homes are released, they go almost immediately. Sales as strong as I can remember. Pushing price on every release with no resistance.” \
AIA: "Demand for Architecture design services continues to rapidly escalate" in March -- Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Demand for design services continues to rapidly escalate: Strengthening to a score not seen since pre-Great Recession, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) logged its second positive mark since the beginning of the pandemic, according to a new report today from The American Institute of Architects (AIA). AIA’s ABI score for March rose to 55.6 compared to 53.3 in February (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). Scores for both new projects inquiries and new design contracts strengthened to 66.9 and 55.7 respectively. March also marked the first time in three years all building sectors and regions posted positive scores. “As business activity at architecture firms moves sharply toward recovery, it is very encouraging to simultaneously see such positive indicators of future project work increasing in the pipeline,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “The activity architecture firms are seeing is a positive bellwether not only for the construction outlook, but also for the larger economy.”
• Regional averages: Midwest (56.5); South (55.8); West (52.8); Northeast (50.8)
• Sector index breakdown: commercial/industrial (57.0); mixed practice (54.9); institutional (54.4); multi-family residential (52.6)This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 55.6 in March, up from 53.3 in February. Anything above 50 indicates expansion in demand for architects' services.Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions. This index had been below 50 for eleven consecutive months, but has been solidly positive for the last two months. The eleven months of decline represented a significant decrease in design services, and suggests a decline in CRE investment through most of 2021 (This usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months), however we might see a pickup in CRE investment towards the end of the 2021.
The occupancy rate is down 13% compared to the same week in 2019. From CoStar: STR: US Hotel Occupancy Dips From Previous Week:U.S. weekly hotel occupancy fell 2.6 percentage points from the previous week, according to STR‘s latest data through April 17.
April 11-17, 2021:
• Occupancy: 57.3%
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$107.16
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$61.37
Following the end of spring break, weekly demand fell back below the 22 million mark, and occupancy dipped to its lowest level since mid-March. The ADR level was also US$5 less after two straight weeks above US$112.For more, see STR's U.S. Market Recovery Monitor The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels prior to 2020). Occupancy is now above the horrible 2009 levels.
Lumber Prices Soar, But Logs Are Still Dirt Cheap - Lumber prices have soared to records. Demand for wood is skyrocketing. The shares of wood suppliers are surging.And yet, trees themselves are dirt cheap in places like Louisiana, where timber supplies are plentiful.The so-called stumpage fee, or what lumber companies pay to land owners for trees, for Louisiana pine sawtimber on March 31 was $22.75 per short ton, according to the latest data from price provider TimberMart-South. That’s the lowest since 2011.An abundance of harvest-ready trees has kept stumpage fees extremely low across the U.S. South, home to half of the country’s production. Meanwhile, lumber futures are up 85% in 2021 because of soaring demand. Sawmills profit from the premium lumber commands over the stumpage fee -- think of it like the lumber crack spread.Those margins are exploding. The spread between futures and stumpage for Louisiana pine, for example, has more than doubled just this year, topping $1,100 per 1,000 board feet.Harvest-ready trees exceed sawmill capacity throughout the southern U.S. Since it’s so expensive to transport heavy logs, supplies go to sawmills in the area and the fees are highly localized in the region, where many timberlands are privately owned.In Alabama, the stumpage fees are slightly higher than Louisiana at $23.34 per short ton. But they’ve barely budged since 2016 and are half the price fetched in 2005.In the futures market, lumber touched a record $1,326.70 per 1,000 board feet on Monday.That sent the spread between futures and the Louisiana stumpage fee higher than $1,144 per 1,000 board feet on Monday, based on a calculationthat assumes 8 short tons of logs per 1,000 board feet. By comparison, during the last lumber surge (in the first half of 2018), the spread topped out just above $440.
Port Of Los Angeles Logs Busiest First Quarter On Record Following "Consumer Spending Surge" Throughout the virus pandemic, all cargo terminals at the Port of Los Angeles, one of the most important seaports in the US, have remained opened and are experiencing incoming record cargos as trillions of dollars in stimulus results in one-sided trade with Asia. The US logistical economy continues to overheat as the federal government has been on a multi-trillion dollar helicopter money drop since the beginning of the virus pandemic. The latest is $1.9 trillion, with hundreds of billions of dollars issued in the form of checks to Americans. "Helicopter money" was first defined by economist Milton Friedman in 1969 as a thought experiment where a helicopter drops cash over a town. It was thought to be a one-off event, but today's federal government has continued to drop free money in the form of stimulus checks to supercharge consumers. The stimulative effect of handing out free money to households is surging consumption. Tens of millions of Americans bought goods, many of which are produced overseas and have to flow through West Coast ports, such as the Port of Los Angeles, in containerized form. S&P Global Platts reports the Port of Los Angeles had the busiest March and first quarter on record, handing upwards of 2.6 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEU) of imports in the three months ending March 2021. In March alone, the port moved 957,599 TEUs, doubling levels moved during the same month of last year, right before the virus pandemic. "The consumer spending surge continues unabated, with more of us vaccinated, businesses opening, economic outlook looks strong," said Gene Seroka, executive director of the port. "Consumers are spending as fast as importers can stock their shelves."Stimulus checks sparked one-sided trade with Asia, making China to US West Coast shipping lane one of the world's busiest over the last year. For instance, volumes at the port (as of March) recorded the eighth consecutive month of year-on-year increases. Over this period, the port averaged 900,000 TEU per month, another record. "The port handled 490,115 loaded TEU imports, up 122.5% on the year. Firm consumer demand for furniture, home goods and appliances, athletic equipment and automotive parts helped drive the record number of imports," Seroka said.Exports from the port were a measly 122,899 TEU, up just 1.5% compared with March of 2020. The latest round of stimulus is expected to continue strong inbound volumes for the port through quarter two. April estimates show volumes of around 880,000 TEU, up 20% over the same period last year. Other estimates show, for the first time, the port could exceed 10 million TEU for its fiscal year ending June 30.
Companies Are Freaking Out About Soaring Costs, And Are Rushing To Pass Them On To Consumers -One doesn't have to go too far - a trip to the local gas station, grocery store, or restaurant should suffice - to observe how soaring commodity prices and other costs are bleeding through to the consumer. And it's only going to get worse: Procter & Gamble, Kimberly-Clark and Coca-Cola have publicly discussed lifting prices, citing rising commodity costs and manufacturing expenses. P&G and Kimberly-Clark’s higher price tags for everyday items like toilet paper and tampons are the first in about two years, as the trade war unfolded, further adding pressure on raw materials.Cost pressures are certainly appearing in company earnings commentaries: while it is still early on in earnings season (less than 10% of S&P 500 companies have reported), Morgan Stanley notes that cost pressures have emerged as a prominent topic of discussion. This development is corroborated by a number of macro data points which suggest that a range of expenses are on the rise.Such surging cost pressures have been best captured by the record prices prints in PMI survey data. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey also indicates that companies intend to raise prices in response to these cost pressures. With a strong, demand-led growth environment, Morgan Stanley's Micheal Wilson writes that many companies will ultimately look to pass along price, but on a more near-term basis the strategist is watching how stocks trade as cost pressures impact results relative to expectations.The charts below that PPI growth is accelerating both for final demand and intermediate demand goods. This acceleration is particularly acute for unprocessed goods, which tends to be a volatile series, but is an important indication of early stage supply chain cost pressure. Additionally, transportation costs (particularly trucking costs) and energy costs are also on the rise.
Gasoline Volume Sales Down Almost 17% from All-Time High - The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) monthly data on volume sales is several weeks old when it released. The latest numbers, through mid-February, are now available. Gasoline prices and increases in fuel efficiency are important factors, but there are also some significant demographic and cultural dynamics in this data series. Because the sales data are highly volatile with some obvious seasonality, we've added a 12-month moving average (MA) to give a clearer indication of the long-term trends. The latest 12-month MA is 16.7% below its all-time high set in August 2005 and has surpassed its -8.6% low set in August 2014 after the last recession.The next chart includes an overlay of real monthly retail gasoline prices, all grades and formulations, adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Price Index (the red line). We've shortened the timeline to start with EIA price series, which dates from August 1990. The retail prices are updated weekly, so the price series is the more current of the two.As we would expect, the rapid rise in gasoline prices in 2008 was accompanied by a significant drop in sales volume. With the official end of the recession in June 2009, sales reversed direction. As a result of COVID-19 and the resulting recession, both gas prices and sales have dropped rapidly. The moving average for the latest month is 14.2% below the pre-recession level. Clearly, gasoline prices were falling beginning in 2018 and the global pandemic facilitated a further and rapid drop.The next chart adjusts the 12-month MA of sales volume for population growth based on the monthly data for Civilian Non-Institutional Population over age 16 from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, via the St. Louis FRED repository. What we see here is that gasoline sales on a per-capita basis are 32.4% lower than at the end of the Great Recession. The gallons-per-capita series includes the complete EIA data, but since we're using the 12-month MA, the blue line starts in 1984. We see the double peak in March 1989 (the all-time high) and August 1990. The latest per-capita daily average is 32.4% below the 1989 high.
DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven decreased 10.6% year-over-year in February - The Department of Transportation (DOT) reported: Travel on all roads and streets changed by -12.1% (-28.3 billion vehicle miles) for February 2021 as compared with February 2020. Travel for the month is estimated to be 205.4 billion vehicle miles. The seasonally adjusted vehicle miles traveled for February 2021 is 245.9 billion miles, a -10.6% (-29.1 billion vehicle miles) decline from February 2020. It also represents -0.4% decline (-1.1 billion vehicle miles) compared with January 2021.Cumulative Travel for 2021 changed by -11.7% (-56.7 billion vehicle miles). The cumulative estimate for the year is 428.7 billion vehicle miles of travel.This graph shows the monthly total vehicle miles driven, seasonally adjusted.Miles driven declined during the great recession, and the rolling 12 months stayed below the previous peak for a record 85 months.Miles driven declined sharply in March, and really collapsed in April. After partially recovering fairly quickly, miles driven have been mostly flat for the last 6+ months.
Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes Increased in 49 States in March -- From the Philly Fed: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for March 2021. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 49 states and decreased in one state, for a three-month diffusion index of 96. Additionally, in the past month, the indexes increased in 49 states and decreased in one state, for a one-month diffusion index of 96. For comparison purposes, the Philadelphia Fed has also developed a similar coincident index for the entire United States. The Philadelphia Fed’s U.S. index increased 1.6 percent over the past three months and 0.6 percent in March. Note: These are coincident indexes constructed from state employment data. An explanation from the Philly Fed:The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing by production workers, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP. Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. This map was all redduring the worst of the Pandemic and also at the worst of the Great Recession. The map is almost all positive on a three month basis.
And here is a graph is of the number of states with one month increasing activity according to the Philly Fed. This graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged). In March, 49 states had increasing activity.
Kansas City Fed Survey: Further Expansion in April - The latest index came in at 31, up 5 from last month's 26, which indicates expansion in April. The future outlook decreased to 34 this month from 35. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.Quarterly data for this indicator dates back to 1995, but monthly data is only available from 2001.Here is an excerpt from the latest report:“Regional factories reported historic growth and very positive expectations in April,” said Wilkerson. “Compared to pre-pandemic levels, new orders and employment have risen for some contacts, but varied by industry. Looking forward, firms remained concerned about the lack of qualified workers, supply chain constraints, and high materials prices.” [Full report here]Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.The next chart is an overlay of the general and future outlook indexes — the outlook six months ahead. Future factory indexes decreased slightly to 34. For comparison, here is the latest ISM Manufacturing survey.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 547,000 - The DOL reported: In the week ending April 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 547,000, a decrease of 39,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020 when it was 256,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 10,000 from 576,000 to 586,000. The 4-week moving average was 651,000, a decrease of 27,750 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020 when it was 225,500. The previous week's average was revised down by 4,250 from 683,000 to 678,750. This does not include the 133,319 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was up from 131,721 the previous week. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 651,000. The previous week was revised up. Regular state continued claims decreased to 3,674,000 (SA) from 3,708,000 (SA) the previous week. Note: There are an additional 7,309,604 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA)that increased from 7,044,376 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance. And an additional 5,605,935 receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) up from 5,158,231. Weekly claims were much lower than the consensus forecast.
Covid Is Hitting Workers Differently Than the Financial Crisis --Understanding the impact of recessions on economic security, especially employment, motivates much of macroeconomics. Most analysis and commentary describe aggregate effects such as the peak-to-trough drop in employment, the rise in the unemployment rate, or the time it takes for employment to recover back to its pre-recession level. But as attention to rising economic inequality has intensified in recent years, studies have given more emphasis to the connection between recessions and inequality. In a new INET working paper, we examine inequality in employment outcomes across social groups during recessions. We take a comparative perspective, studying results from two recent and severe US recessions: the “Great Recession” linked with the global financial crisis beginning in late 2007 and the “lockdown” recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Comparing these two events presents an interesting case study to explore inequality in recessions. The severity of a recession depends both on how much employment declines and the persistence of those declines. The primary job-months lost statistic in our analysis is designed to capture both of these dimensions. This measure simply adds up the difference between actual employment and pre-recession employment over the recession months. For example, if the pre-recession employment trend for a demographic group was flat and a person in that group lost a job in April but went back to work in July, that person’s experience would add three job-months lost to the total in their demographic group. We calculate job-months lost with data from the US Current Population Survey stratified by gender, race/ethnicity, age, and education. Our results show: a significant shift of job loss from men in the Great Recession to women in the COVID-19 lockdown. White workers fare better than other racial/ethnic groups in both recessions. Black and Hispanic women are hit especially hard in the COVID-19 pandemic. With our job loss measure, less-educated workers had modestly worse outcomes in the Great Recession. However, during COVID-19, less-educated workers suffer much more severe employment consequences than more educated groups. We discuss the long-term effects of employment inequality and how these findings are relevant to debates about policy responses. Recessions are bad; inequality makes them worse. The need for effective intervention to offset the macroeconomic effects of recessions is reasonably well accepted among policymakers, especially in the aftermath of the Great Recession when the fiscal response was, according to many economists, inadequate. The additional evidence on inequality and recessions, especially the COVID-19 recession, increases the urgency for effective policy. Recognizing how recessions hurt the welfare of the most vulnerable members of society increases the significance of the social costs beyond what aggregate measures imply on their own. Furthermore, the unequal effects of recessions, and the persistence of these unequal effects after the downturn ends, slows or even reverses progress toward the worthy social goal of creating more equitable societies.
Trends in Educational Attainment in the U.S. Labor Force -- The first graph shows the unemployment rate by four levels of education (all groups are 25 years and older) through March 2021. Note: This is an update to a post from a few years ago. Unfortunately this data only goes back to 1992 and includes only three recessions (the stock / tech bust in 2001, and the housing bust/financial crisis, and the 2020 pandemic). Clearly education matters with regards to the unemployment rate, with the lowest rate for college graduates at 3.7% in March, and highest for those without a high school degree at 8.2% in March. All four groups were generally trending down prior to the pandemic. And all are trending down now. Note: This says nothing about the quality of jobs - as an example, a college graduate working at minimum wage would be considered "employed". This brings up an interesting question: What is the composition of the labor force by educational attainment, and how has that been changing over time? Here is some data on the U.S. labor force by educational attainment since 1992. Currently, almost 61 million people in the U.S. labor force have a Bachelor's degree or higher. This is almost 44% of the labor force, up from 26.2% in 1992. This is the only category trending up. "Some college" has been steady (and trending down lately), and both "high school" and "less than high school" have been trending down. Based on current trends, probably more than half the labor force will have at least a bachelor's degree by the end of this decade (2020s). Some thoughts: Since workers with bachelor's degrees typically have a lower unemployment rate, rising educational attainment is probably a factor in pushing down the overall unemployment rate over time. Also, I'd guess more education would mean less labor turnover, and that education is a factor in lower weekly claims (prior to the pandemic). A more educated labor force is a positive for the future.
A fiery Tesla crash killed two people outside of Houston. Authorities say nobody was driving — and the fire took 32,000 gallons of water to extinguish - Two people are dead in Texas after the Tesla they were riding in hopped a curb, crashed into a tree, and burst into flames, local outlets report. Authorities said nobody was driving the car. The crash occurred on Saturday evening in Spring, Texas, a Houston suburb, when a Tesla traveling at a high speed failed to negotiate a bend and went off the road, local television station KHOU reports. Once the blaze was put out, first responders found the bodies of two men, one in the passenger's seat and one in the back seat of the Tesla, Harris County Precinct 4 Constable Mark Herman told the outlet. Judging by the physical evidence and their reconstruction of the incident, investigators concluded that there was nobody in the driver's seat at the time of the crash, Herman said. "They are 100% certain that no one was in the driver seat driving that vehicle at the time of impact," Herman told KHOU. "They feel very confident just with the positioning of the bodies after the impact that there was no one driving that vehicle." The deadly incident comes amid a new spate of Tesla crashes that may have involved Autopilot, the carmaker's advanced driver-assistance feature that comes standard on all of its new cars. Investigators haven't determined if Autopilot was switched on at the time of the crash.
How product placements may soon be added to classic films -- BBC --Product placement is big business for movies and TV series alike, and items can now be added digitally to films and programmes both new and old.Fans of classic war flicks will know the scene - actor Steve McQueen revs his motorcycle furiously as he is chased by German soldiers.Hoping to use the bike to jump over a barbed wire border fence, and reach safety in Switzerland, he pauses to gather his thoughts by a barn.On the side of the building is a big poster advertising a best-selling beer.You don't remember the billboard advert? Well it might not have been there the last time you watched The Great Escape, but it could well be the next.Product placement in films is almost as old as the movie industry itself. The first example of the phenomenon is said to be the 1919 Buster Keaton comedy The Garage, which featured the logos of petrol firms and motor oil companies.Fast-forward to 2019, and the total global product placement industry, across films, TV shows and music videos, was said to be worth $20.6bn (£15bn) that year, according to a report by data analysis firm PQ Media. It is highly lucrative to get a show's leading actor to wear a certain item of clothing, or drink a particular coffee, or drive a specific car.
Foxconn Mostly Bails On $10 Billion Wisconsin Factory -Taiwan electronics manufacturer Foxconn has all but bailed on a $10 billion factory in Wisconsin which was supposed to employ 13,000 workers - only to have been plagued with setbacks and confusion from the start. Under a deal announced on Tuesday with the state of Wisconsin, Foxconn will slash its planned investment to $672 million, and cut the number of new jobs to just 1,454 according to Reuters.The Foxconn-Wisconsin deal was first announced to great fanfare at the White House in July 2017, with Trump boasting of it as an example of how his “America first” agenda could revive U.S. tech manufacturing.For Foxconn, the investment promise was an opportunity for its charismatic founder and then-chairman, Terry Gou, to build goodwill at a moment when Trump’s trade policies threatened the company’s cash cow: building Apple Inc’s iPhones in China for export to America. -ReutersThe Wisconsin manufacturing campus was originally slated to be 20 million square feet in what would have been the largest investment in US history for a foreign-based company. The location would have built flat-panel displays for TVs and other devices, however the plan had more than a few hitches.As we noted in October, execution of Foxconn's plan was plagued with issues from the start. There was talk about Foxconnneeding to bring in its own Chinese engineers due to skilled labor shortages. But we can't say for certain whether this, or another issue - say the souring mood between Washington and Beijing - might be to blame.The initial deal called for Wisconsin supplying $3.3 billion in state subsidies in exchange for Foxxconn investing $10 billion into a new LCD manufacturing plant, which was projected to create 13,000 "family sustaining" manufacturing jobs; that's a rate of roughly $230,000 per job. However, the state has already sunk money into the project. Though none of what has been spent so far can be clawed back from Foxconn.
Donald Trump’s “eighth wonder of the world” shrinks from $10 billion to $674 million - Menzie Chinn - Article from Reuters, “Foxconn mostly abandons $10 billion Wisconsin project touted by Trump”:Under a deal with the state of Wisconsin announced on Tuesday, Foxconn will reduce its planned investment to $672 million from $10 billion and cut the number of new jobs to 1,454 from 13,000.The Foxconn-Wisconsin deal was first announced to great fanfare at the White House in July 2017, with Trump boasting of it as an example of how his “America first” agenda could revive U.S. tech manufacturing. My discussion in 2017, citing Legislative Fiscal Bureau assessment, here. Formal modeling of possible economic impacts from CROWE in 2017, and critical assessment by Mercatus of the package here. And, all of us are wondering – where is Scott Walker?
How America Can Curb the Epidemic of Violence Against Health Care Workers - The U.S. House just passed a bipartisan bill, the Workplace Violence Prevention for Health Care and Social Service Workers Act, to curtail the rising epidemic of assaults on doctors, nurses, certified nursing assistants, case managers and others on the front lines of care.The legislation, now before the Senate, requires hospitals, clinics, medical office buildings and other facilities to develop violence prevention plans that cover the unique needs of each workplace.For example, Vu said, a plan requiring that only specially trained behavioral health workers care for suicidal patients would have been one possible way to avert the near-strangulation of his coworker a few years ago. She was assigned to the patient’s room that day even though she wasn’t a mental health specialist.The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) would enforce this violence prevention act and intervene if workers experience retaliation for reporting safety lapses.“Having this type of legislation would put our safety at the forefront,” explained Vu, a behavioral health technician at Essentia and unit president of United Steelworkers (USW) Local 9460, which represents thousands of workers at more than a dozen northern Minnesota medical facilities. “It’s not something people should be desensitized to.” Health care professionals are five times more likely to encounter violence on the job than other Americans. The crisis has festered for years. Workers face assaults from patients with substance abuse, dementia or cognitive issues, and they’re attacked by patients’ stressed-out family members.The COVID-19 pandemic made a horrific situation worse. Even as they grappled with staffing shortages and infection-control protocols, workers experienced a spike in assaults from patients and others upset with mask requirements, restrictions on visitors and financial pressures stemming from the coronavirus.No one is safe. When a patient attacks a health care worker, the struggle can spill into hallways, nearby treatment rooms or parking lots, putting other patients and visitors at risk.At the urging of the USW and other unions representing caregivers, the House initially passed the violence prevention bill in 2019. USW members and retirees alone collected 80,000 signatures demanding enactment of the legislation. But the Republicans then in control of the Senate refused to consider the measure. Now, as injuries continue to mount, it’s more critical than ever to get the bill through the Senate.
Federal Report Cites Numerous Failures At Baltimore Vaccine Plant That Ruined 15M Doses - Federal regulators on Wednesday have issued critical findings from their inspection of the Emergent BioSolutions factory in Baltimore that caused a national uproar when it ruined millions of doses of COVID-19 vaccines from J&J and AstraZeneca (even though the latter haven't yet been approved for use in the US).The report, which was leaked to the NYT, blamed a series of defects and shortcomings at the massive plant, which is operated by Emergent BioSolutions. The inspection was triggered by reports that Emergent workers had contaminated a batch of J&J doses after accidentally contaminating them with materials intended for the AstraZeneca jabs.In the aftermath, federal officials ceded control to J&J, and commanded it to oversee production of its jab at the cite.In total, the 12-page report cited 9 distinct violations, including...
- Workers frequently moved between the manufacturing zones without documenting that they had showered and changed their gowns as required.
- Workers also failed to properly handle manufacturing waste, creating risks of contamination in the warehouse where raw materials are stored,
- The facility where the vaccines were manufactured is not of "suitable size".
- Written procedures for how to assure drug quality were not adequate.
- Employees were adequately trained in the particular roles in which they were assigned.
- Workers failed to thoroughly investigate discrepancies including signs of "cross-contamination."
- etc.. Read the full report below:
The FDA cited the vaccine plant that ruined millions of Johnson & Johnson doses for unsanitary conditions, finding 'brown residue' on the walls and peeling paint --A Baltimore factory that botched the production of 15 million doses of the Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine has been cited for unsanitary conditions by the US Food and Drug Association.In a report on the factory for Emergent BioSolutions published by the FDA on Wednesday, officials said the facility had peeling paint and "brown residue" on the walls.The FDA said in a statement that conditions at a factory can "lead to quality issues during the manufacturing of a product.""The FDA's inspections are thorough, and these assessments review the quality of manufacturing procedures, including records, staff training, facility operations, drug production and testing and the systems in place to ensure product quality," the FDA said in a statement. "During an inspection of Emergent BioSolutions that ended Tuesday, the FDA cited a number of observations concerning whether the facility's processes met our requirements and standards."Johnson & Johnson said in a statement that it will ensure that all of the FDA's concerns are "addressed promptly and comprehensively.""The Company will also redouble its efforts as it continues to work toward securing Emergency Use Authorization in the United States for drug substance manufactured at Emergent Bayview as quickly as possible, so that the Company can help bring an end to this global pandemic," the company said.Emergent BioSolutions paused its production of COVID-19 vaccines at the factory on Tuesday at the request of government regulators who are investigating the botched doses, the Baltimore Sun reported.The manufacturing plant ruined 15 million Johnson & Johnson vaccine doses last month when an employee reportedly mixed up vaccine ingredients.
What’s Behind the Growth in Alcohol Consumption? -American deaths from misuse of substances, including alcohol, have increased over the past two decades, but not uniformly across various demographic groups.Overall rates of alcohol abuse and related deaths have consistently and significantly increased for white non-Hispanic Americans, while Black Americans have experienced a much slower and less significant incline, and some other groups have had declines.More recently, alcohol use has been up during the pandemic, with one study showing a greater increase in misuse among women than among men. (For men, recommended limits are four drinks per day and 14 drinks per week, and for women, three drinks per day and seven drinks per week, according to the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism.)“Alcohol kills many more people than many may realize,” said Yusuf Ransome, an assistant professor at Yale’s School of Public Health. “It is a major contributor to deaths linked to physical injuries, interpersonal violence, motor vehicle crashes, self-harm and other harmful outcomes.” One reason for this might be that alcohol is often viewed as socially acceptable. “Alcohol use has been normalized because it is consumed sometimes at family and communal gatherings, casual outings, and that’s the type of drinking that is typically seen or showed within the media,” he said. “We rarely see the long-term health impacts of excessive alcohol use, nor do we show the acute dangers of alcohol misuse and abuse.”
Drug Overdose Deaths in America - Another Unintended Consequence of Government's Response to the Pandemic - In its most recent data release, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention outlines one of the most serious health issues facing the United States, an issue which has worsened significantly since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic one year ago. While I have posted on this subject in the past few months, it is important for us to understand how government's response to the pandemic continues to have a negative and far-reaching impact on certain subgroups of Americans. Here is a graph showing the 12 month-ending provisional number of drug over deaths for the entire United States with the circles showing the predicted number of drug overdose deaths and the solid line showing the actual number of overdose deaths:In the 12 month period ending in September 2020, the last month for which data is available, there were 87,203 drug overdose deaths, up from 68,757 in the year prior to September 2019 (i.e September 2018 to September 2020), an increase of 26.8 percent.Here is a graphic showing the 12-month-ending provisional number of drug overdose deaths by drug type or drug class: By drug type or drug class, the month-ending provisional number of drug overdose deaths were as follows
- 1.) Opioids - 64,472
- 2.) Synthetic Opioids excluding methadone - 53,877
- 3.) Psychostimulants with abuse potential - 21,961
- 4.) Cocaine - 19,239
- 5.) Heroin - 13,780
- 6.) Natural and semi-synthetic opioids - 13,122
- 7.) Methadone - 3,361
In comparison, in September 2019, the 12-month-ending provisional number of drug overdoses from opioids was 48,140 and from synthetic opioids was 34,057. Here is a graphic showing the predicted percent change in drug overdose deaths between September 2019 and September 2020:Here is a table showing the 9 states with the most drug overdose deaths:Here is a table showing the 10 states with the least drug overdose deaths: Here is a table showing the 10 states with the greatest percentage increase in drug overdose deaths: Here is a table showing the 10 states with the lowest percentage increase in drug overdose deaths: It is quite clear that the pandemic has had a significant and ongoing impact on the number of drug overdose deaths in the United States, thanks in large part to the government-ordered closures of treatment programs, drop-in centers that provide safe injection sites and naloxone. For example, a 2020 study by Sara Glick et al found that 43 percent of Syringe Services Programs (SSP) reported a decrease in the availability of services due to COVID-19 including 25 percent that reported that one or more of their sites had closed due to the pandemic. The rising number of drug overdose deaths in the United States over the past year is yet another in a long line of unintended consequence of the governments' response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Notes on police violence: Multiple killings the same week Derek Chauvin convicted - Forty-year-old Andrew Brown, father of 10, was fatally shot Wednesday morning by a Pasquotank County sheriff’s deputy in Elizabeth City, North Carolina. Few details are known about the police shooting at this time, but the Pasquotank County Sheriff’s Office states the shooting occurred around 8:30 a.m. while deputies were serving a search warrant.According to a witness, Brown got into his car and started to drive away. Neighbors said the deputy fired his weapon between 6 and 8 times into Brown’s vehicle. The North Carolina State Bureau of Investigation has been called in to take over the investigation. On Tuesday, Detroit police responded to a mental health call near 8 Mile and Hanna. Two officers approached a man who appeared to have self-inflicted wounds from a large knife he was wielding. When they tried to subdue him, he allegedly stabbed one the officers in the leg several times, and the other officer fired a salvo of bullets into him, killing him and wounding his partner. Detroit Police Chief James Craig nonetheless said it was too early to know the true cause of death. “He could’ve not only succumbed from the shots that were fired to protect the officer, part of it might have been the injuries he sustained, the self-inflicted injury, we’re just not certain,” he said. In an unprecedented move, Columbus police have released body-camera footage of a Columbus police officer shooting 16-year-old Ma’Khia Bryant, a foster child in the custody of Children’s Services. The shooting occurred Tuesday, only 20 minutes before a guilty verdict was announced in the trial of Derek Chauvin for the killing of George Floyd. Columbus police stated that the Bureau of Criminal Investigation is leading the investigation and had released the footage.The footage shows an officer approaching a driveway where a group of young people are standing. In the video, Bryant is seen pushing another female to the ground, whereupon a male individual runs up and kicks the woman on the ground as the officer draws his weapon, shouting, “Get down! Get down! Get down! Get down!”Between the first and second “Get down!” Bryant runs towards a car where she appears to assault another female. Immediately after the fourth “Get down!” the police officer discharges his weapon four times into Bryant. She would die a short time later. Hazel Bryant, Ma’Khia’s aunt, told the Dispatch that her niece got into an altercation with someone else at the home. Hazel Bryant said her niece had a knife, but maintained that the she dropped the knife before she was shot multiple times by police.
Snapchat has become an on-demand delivery app for teens to score illegal drugs. Some kids are dying after taking one pill.One of the last acts in Devin Norring's short life took place on Snapchat. The 19-year-old in Hastings, Minnesota, connected with a drug dealer on the social-media app last year and arranged to buy a prescription pain pill. But the pill that the dealer delivered was packed with fentanyl, an opiate so powerful that Norring died shortly after taking it. The tragedy is part of a painful pattern that has repeated itself over the past year, spread by the immediacy and friction-free ease that teenagers expect in an age of on-demand apps. But, unlike the repercussions of posting an ill-advised video or regrettable comment on Snapchat, the consequences for teens buying pills through social media can be irreversible. "I would say 80% of the people I know who have lost children to fentanyl poisoning say their child bought the drugs on Snapchat," said Jaime Puerta, whose 16-year-old son, Daniel, died in April 2020 of fentanyl poisoning. Why, the families want to know, can't law enforcement and social media crack down on blatant public fentanyl sales before more young people die? The answer, experts say, is a devastating combination of counterfeit pills and consumer technology that has "sped up the danger" of young people's drug use — and which has left companies, law enforcement and health experts scrambling to catch up. "These 14- and 15-year-old kids are clueless about what they're doing," Lisa Smittcamp, the district attorney in Fresno, California, told Insider. "That's the danger of the Snapchat drug-delivery thing. The first time they use it, they could die."
Arizona governor vetoes strict sex education bill - Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) has vetoed a restrictive sex education bill that would have mandated that parents give consent before their children learn about LGBTQ issues.Along party lines, the state legislature last week passed Senate Bill 1456, which would have required a school district’s governing board to develop procedures under which parents would have the opportunity to opt their children into education regarding sexuality, gender identity or gender expression. It also prohibited schools from teaching about HIV or AIDS without consent.
Texas withholds federal aid from public schools - The Texas state government is refusing to disburse $17.9 billion of $19 billion in federal money intended for public education under the recently-passed COVID-19 stimulus bill. When account is taken of all the money that the state has received from Washington for various purposes due to the pandemic, officials are holding back on a total of $38.6 billion. In addition, should a bill pass the Texas House of Representatives this week and be signed by the governor, a further $1.2 billion of the stimulus money intended for K-12 education will be diverted to the 2022-2023 budget. The reason Texas is withholding money from public schools is that it is seeking a waiver from the federal government that will allow it to avoid spending at least $1 billion of the state’s own budget on higher education. In other words, the state government is starving K-12 schools of desperately needed funds so that it can then starve colleges and universities of desperately needed funds. Texas has already required these higher education institutions to implement budget cuts ranging from 5-10 percent, which were mandated in 2020 under the pretext of accommodating the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. The state is aiming to retain those budget cuts. Officials are simultaneously finding ways to shift financial burdens onto municipalities and away from the state. On the grounds that the pandemic has driven up property values, resulting in a rise in the amount of money generated from local property taxes, Texas state senators axed $5.5 billion in education funding from the state budget that is now on its way to the state House for approval. Local governments, buoyed by some additional money coming from the roughly $1.2 billion allocated by the Coronavirus Aid Relief and Economic Security Act (CARES Act), are expected to cover what has been cut. This move will serve to exacerbate inequalities between school districts, as poorer districts with lower revenue from property taxes will have less to spend compared to their better-off counterparts.
Chicago Public Schools, teachers union reopen high schools in spite of growth of deadly new COVID-19 variant On Sunday, the Chicago Teachers Union (CTU) announced that a tentative agreement with Chicago Public Schools (CPS) was ratified by union members by an 83 to 17 percent margin, paving the way for Chicago high schools to reopen for in-person classes today. The reopening comes amid a resurgence of COVID-19 nationally and internationally, fueled by new variants, such as the B.1.1.7 variant, which is infecting young people at higher levels. The current rolling average positivity rate in Chicago is 5.6 percent, according to the Chicago Department of Public Health (CDPH). In February, when the CTU and CPS agreed to reopen classes up to the eighth grade, the rolling average positivity rate in Chicago was around 3.6 percent. CPS’s COVID-19 cases are climbing. According to district numbers, for the week of April 4, there were 58 positive cases recorded by CPS. Last week, there were 81 cases. According to the CTU’s own tracker, there have been 1,416 cumulative cases at 440 schools, an increase from last week’s 1,398 cases at 438 schools. CTU Covid tracker According to the deal, students at 37 high schools will be in class four days a week. At 53 schools, students will be split into cohorts that are in classrooms two days each week. CPS also agreed to create a vaccination program for students aged 16 and older and to coordinate appointments for their families. CTU President Jesse Sharkey lauded this program, commenting in a press release, “The new vaccination program for CPS students and families is, we believe, the first of its kind in the nation to be negotiated by a union of educators.” However, there is no indication when this will happen. It will take weeks for high school students to become fully vaccinated, meaning there will be ample time for many students and teachers to become infected. Moreover, vaccines are not yet available for those aged 16 and younger. As such, the tens of thousands of students under the age of 16, many of whom have been in school since March, will continue to be in school as the new B.1.1.7 COVID-19 variant continues to spread. Studies have found children, like adults, can become COVID “ long haulers,” suffering from debilitating symptoms for months or years after contracting the disease. At least five hospitals in the US have gone so far as to create pediatric long-haul clinics to help children with lingering COVID-19 illnesses.
Students across Minnesota join walkout protest in solidarity with Daunte Wright, George Floyd --As closing arguments were underway in the murder trial of former Minneapolis Police officer Derek Chauvin on Monday, students across Minnesota participated in a statewide walkout to protest racial injustice. According to The New York Times, shortly before 2 p.m. on Monday, students held a moment of silence for Daunte Wright, the 20-year-old Black man who was fatally shot by police in Brooklyn Center, Minn. last week.Brooklyn Center is located approximately 10 miles from the courthouse where Chauvin is on trial for the murder of George Floyd.The protest was organized by Minnesota Teen Activists, a group that was launched following racial incidents in schools, and the killing of Floyd, according to The Times. Gabby Hou, a founder of the group and a sophomore at a Minnesota high school, said that students from at least 118 schools took part in the walkout on Monday, according to The Times.According to The Minneapolis Star Tribune, approximately 300 students, mainly high schoolers, gathered near U.S. Bank Stadium in downtown Minneapolis, where they chanted "You can't stop the revolution," and "We are the students, the mighty, mighty students,” as snow fell to the ground.Hundreds of students gathered at a number of other high schools, chanting “This is what community looks like!” and “When you see injustice, stand up,” among other mantras, The Times reported.One woman, according to The Times, was captured on video shouting “When you see injustice speak out,” referring to the recent killings of 13-year-old Adam Toledo in Chicago, and 17-year-old Anthony J. Thompson, who was fatally struck in an officer-involved shooting at a school in Knoxville, Tenn.Minneapolis Public Schools, in a statement on their website, said they would not discipline students for protesting as long as the demonstrations remained peaceful, but noted that according to school policy, students who walk out of school will not be permitted to return for the remainder of the day.
U.S. Supreme Court ponders cheerleader's profanity in free speech flap (Reuters) -A Pennsylvania teenager whose profanity-laced outburst on social media got her banished from her high school's cheerleading squad is in the spotlight at the U.S. Supreme Court this week, arguing "I shouldn't have to be afraid to express myself." Brandi Levy, who made her Snapchat post away from school and on a weekend, is at the center of a major case testing the limits of the U.S. Constitution's First Amendment guarantee of freedom of speech. The nine justices on Wednesday are set to hear arguments in the Mahanoy Area School District's appeal of a lower court ruling in favor of Levy that found that the First Amendment bars public school officials from regulating off-campus speech. Levy's indelicate May 2017 Snapchat post came two days after Mahanoy Area High School, in Pennsylvania's coal region, held its cheerleading tryouts. The ninth-grader, who had been a junior varsity cheerleader, was still infuriated about being left off the varsity squad. At a convenience store in Mahanoy City on a Saturday, she posted a picture of her and a friend holding up their middle fingers, adding a caption using the same curse word four times to voice her displeasure with cheerleading, softball, school and "everything." She was 14 years old at the time. She is now an 18-year-old college student studying accounting. "I feel like students should be protected and be able to express themselves without getting any form of punishment for it from the school," Levy said in an interview. "It'll set an example for everyone that it's okay for people to express their feelings out of school." Coaches ousted Levy from the squad for a year, saying she had broken various rules and undermined team cohesion. Backed by the American Civil Liberties Union, Levy and her parents sued the district seeking reinstatement to the squad and a judgment that her First Amendment rights had been violated.
PSU study challenges idea that students with cognitive disabilities can't be in STEM - A new Portland State study challenges the idea that youth with cognitive disabilities are unable or lack potential to pursue a career in science, technology, engineering and mathematics. In a study using national data on more than 15,000 adolescents, the researchers found that undergraduates with medicated ADHD or autism appear to be more likely to major in STEM than youth without cognitive disabilities, and youth with autism have the most positive STEM attitudes. Dara Shifrer, the lead author and an associate professor of sociology at PSU, says that increasing access to STEM fields for youth with disabilities depends not only on encouraging them to pursue STEM majors but also to enroll in college because STEM occupations often require bachelor's degrees at higher rates. "We need a diverse STEM workforce so innovation and technologies are meeting the needs of the whole populace," she said. Shifrer said the findings counter the notion that all youth with cognitive disabilities lack potential and ability. Instead, she says their potential often remains untapped due to inconsistent and subjective disability classifications, placement in lower-level courses, and lower expectations that are then likely to lead to self-fulfilling prophecies of poorer academic achievement and attitudes. Both achievement and attitudes are important for postsecondary STEM outcomes, she said. The study found that if a student identifies as a math or science person, feels efficacious in their abilities and perceives math and science as useful for their goals, they're more likely to major in STEM. While achievement is important for college enrollment, attitudes are more strongly associated with pursuing a degree in a STEM field.
Former Temple Business School Dean Charged Federally For Manipulating School Ranking Data - The former dean of Temple's Fox School of Business is being charged with federal crimes after being ousted due to an investigation that found the school "manipulated data" to become the number one ranked MBA program in the country. Former dean Moshe Porat was indicted on one count each of conspiracy and wire fraud, according to NBC Philadelphia. His lawyer "vigorously" denied the charges. Isaac Gottlieb, a statistics professor, and Marjorie O'Neill, who submitted data to magazines that rank college programs, were also named in the indictment, according to the report. Temple's online MBA had been ranked top in the nation by U.S. News and World Report since 2015. The university stayed at the top of the list for 3 years after that and used its ranking to attract students and win donations. Porat allegedly hand picked a small group of employees to focus on the rankings, including stat professor Gottleib, who was also to reverse engineer the magazine's ranking criteria. Porat appointed O'Neill as the sole liaison between the university and the magazine. The indictment "claims Fox manipulated data in its part-time MBA program, conflating its data with other programs to drive better rankings," NBC reported. U.S. News called out Temple's online MBA data and stripped the school of its ranking. Temple was then forced to pay the U.S. Department of Education $700,000 and later settled a class action suit by offering $250,000 in scholarships. Temple called Porat the "mastermind" of the fraud and asked him to resign.
Sinema, Romney propose bill to tackle student loan debt --Sens. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) on Thursday introduced a bipartisan bill to tackle student loan debt. The Earn to Learn Act will allow low-income students to pay for college-related expenses through a college-matched savings program “We must do better to ensure American students have the skills and training necessary to pursue good-paying jobs that keep up with our changing economy,” Romney said. “Our legislation will help students pursue their education by equipping them with the financial resources and knowledge they need to attend college, career and technical schools without the burden of being saddled with debt when they graduate.” The savings account allows participating states or nonprofits to give an extra $8 to every $1 a student puts into the account and the money can be used once a student selects a school to attend. The bill is based on a similar program that has existed in Arizona for 10 years and has helped many students in the state graduate debt free. The program in Arizona only allows those who qualify for the Pell Grant to participate, but has shown a first-year retention rate of almost 90 percent. “Education was my key to opportunity, and I’m committed to ensuring all Arizona students have the same access to higher education that I did," Sinema said. "Creating a college-matched savings program helps Arizona students save for school while teaching the importance of money management." In the senators’ bill, any state or group that chooses to participate will receive grants to fund financial literacy programs and tuition assistance to others in their state. The proposed bill comes at a time when Democrats are pushing to eliminate all student loan debt, while Republicans are strictly against the idea.
Sanders, Jayapal introduce bill to make college tuition-free for many Americans -- Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) introduced legislation on Wednesday to make college tuition free for many Americans, a policy that would be paid for by a tax on Wall Street. The bill would make community college tuition-free for everyone and four-year public colleges tuition-free and debt-free for students from families making up to $125,000 per year. "In the 21st century, a free public education system that goes from kindergarten through high school is no longer good enough. The time is long overdue to make public colleges and universities tuition-free and debt-free for working families," Sanders said in a statement. Jayapal, who chairs the Congressional Progressive Caucus, added that the bill would "free students from a lifetime of debt, invest in working people, and transform higher education across America." The bill would also allow students from families who make up to $125,000 per year to attend private, nonprofit minority-serving institutions tuition-free such as historically Black colleges and universities. And it would double the maximum Pell Grant to $12,990, which can be used for living and nontuition expenses, and would expand eligibility to "Dreamers," immigrants brought into the country illegally as children. The bill would be paid for by a tax on some Wall Street trades. Sanders said he would separately reintroduce a bill, known as the Tax on Wall Street Speculation Act, on Wednesday. It would put a 0.5 percent tax on stock trades, a 0.1 percent tax on bonds and a 0.005 tax on derivatives. The bill comes as Democrats are trying to build pressure on Biden to cancel student loan debt. Biden, during his presidential campaign, backed forgiving $10,000 in student loan debt. He's now facing calls from lawmakers to go further and cancel $50,000 per borrower, which top Democrats say he can do without Congress. “While President Biden can and should immediately cancel student debt for millions of borrowers, Congress must ensure that working families never have to take out these crushing loans to receive a higher education in the first place,” Jayapal said on Wednesday.
Efforts to reduce opioid prescriptions may be hindering end-of-life pain management - Policies designed to prevent the misuse of opioids may have the unintended side effect of limiting access to the pain-relieving drugs by terminally ill patients nearing the end of their life, new research led by the Oregon State University College of Pharmacy suggests. A study of more than 2,500 hospital patients discharged to hospice care over a nine-year period showed a decreasing trend of opioid prescriptions as well as an increase in the prescribing of less powerful, non-opioid analgesics, meaning some of those patients might have been undertreated for their pain compared to similar patients in prior years. The findings, published in the Journal of Pain and Symptom Management, are an important step toward optimizing pain management and minimizing the suffering of dying patients. Hospice care refers to treatments whose goal is to maximize comfort and quality of life as opposed to prolonging life. Researchers used electronic health record data to examine 2,648 discharges of adult patients to hospice care. The discharges were from an acute care, academic hospital between Jan. 1, 2010, and Dec. 31, 2018. The average patient age was 65, more than half had cancer, and the study sought to determine the year by year frequency of patients receiving opioid prescriptions. After adjusting for factors that could affect prescription frequency, including age, specific diagnosis and where the patient was to receive hospice care, the results showed a nearly 12% downward trend from the first year (91.2%) to the last (79.3%). "Pain is a common end-of-life symptom and it's often debilitating,"
The Shock and Reality of Catching Covid After Being Vaccinated - Robin Hauser, a pediatrician in Tampa, Florida, got Covid in February. What separates her from the vast majority of the tens of millions of other Americans who have come down with the virus is this: She got sick seven weeks after her second dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. “I was shocked,” said Hauser. “I thought: ‘What the heck? How did that happen?’ I now tell everyone, including my colleagues, not to let their guard down after the vaccine.” As more Americans every day are inoculated, a tiny but growing number are contending with the disturbing experience of getting Covid despite having had one shot, or even two. In data released Thursday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported that at least 5,800 people had fallen ill or tested positive for the coronavirus two weeks or more after they completed both doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccine. A total of about 78 million Americans are now fully vaccinated. These so-called breakthrough infections occurred among people of all ages. Just over 40% were in people age 60 or older, and 65% occurred in women. Twenty-nine percent of infected people reported no symptoms, but 7% were hospitalized and just over 1%, 74 people, died, according to the CDC. Public health officials have said breakthrough infections were expected, since manufacturers have warned loudly and often that the vaccines are not 100% protective. The Pfizer and Moderna versions have consistently been shown to be above 90% effective, most recently for at least six months. Studies have also shown they are nearly 100% effective at ensuring that the small fraction of vaccinated patients who do contract the virus will not get severe cases or require hospitalization. Still, people are usually shocked and befuddled when they become the rare breakthrough victim. After months of fear and taking precautions to avoid contracting Covid, they felt safe once they got their shots.
The CDC’s VAERS and Vaccine Complications: The System is Broken -- Yves here. As IM Doc indicates in passing in this post, he’s been keeping Lambert and me (and the other members of our Covid brain trust) updated on what he is seeing in the field, via the CDC’s Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) and hearing from MDs at a major teaching hospital and in his network about the Covid vaccines. Recall that IM Doc was early to warn that vaccinations would soon hit a wall after those eager to take them had gotten their shots. He saw that in his area (which has a substantial wealthy/PMC population) before the J&J “pause”. IM Doc has also been regularly describing his frustration and that of other physicians with the dearth of data and official advice. An example from a recent e-mail: Is it not interesting that all of the press releases and information online and on TV continually refer to “a very rare condition”, “blood clots”, “blood disorder” in very nebulous terms. That could literally encompass hundreds of different diagnoses. As one of the other docs [on an internet conference] stated out loud: There was a time when our federal medical folks would have this kind of situation and front and center would be an EXACT description of the problem and some kind of messaging to the physicians of America of what would we should be on the lookout for – and what we can do to treat…So far NOTHING about either issue – indicating they could not give 2 fucks about patients and physicians – this is now all about protecting Big Pharma and the money machine. Indeed, this is most unusual, extraordinary as a matter of fact. Something has drastically changed in our federal agencies in just the past few years. The last big issue involving the CDC was the vaping/lung damage issue and I was getting daily e-mails. I have not received a word about any of this – nor at this point do I really expect to. I have found nothing that is an exact clinical description of what is happening to these patients and what to expect. What I am able to glean from off-handed comments in a very few of the medical articles is that the use of any anti-coagulation agents especially heparin and lovenox, make things much worse. There is also apparently great concern about the newer agents like Eliquis and Xarelto. In other words, we have no treatment options. I am not exactly sure what we are supposed to do.To say that I find it very concerning to not be informed of what exactly is going on is unprecedented and deeply concerning.Now to IM Doc’s overview of the sorry state of vaccine deployment. This Administration is following the established Team Dem practice of treating every problem as if it can be solve with better PR. We are seeing that in a pandemic results in bad science, bad PR, and bad outcomes.
COVID vaccines and blood clots: five key questions - It has been a difficult week for two COVID-19 vaccines. On 13 April, US regulators urged health-care providers to temporarily stop using a vaccine made by Johnson & Johnson (J&J) of New Brunswick, New Jersey, because of 6 suspected cases of unusual blood clotting among nearly 7 million vaccine recipients. The move came after European regulators expressed concerns about a possible link between rare blood clots and the Oxford–AstraZeneca vaccine, developed in the United Kingdom by AstraZeneca in Cambridge and the University of Oxford. Both decisions are having a global impact. Although researchers and regulators stress that the benefits of the vaccines outweigh the risks, several countries are restricting the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine to certain age groups, and Denmark has opted out of using it altogether. J&J, meanwhile, has paused distribution of its vaccine to some countries. “There’s been a huge amount of confusion.” Some of that confusion stems from an urgent need to act quickly on the basis of messy, incomplete and capricious real-world data. As regulators are forced to make decisions, scientists are still racing to investigate the rare clotting disorder and its link to the vaccines. What could the connection be between blood clots and vaccines? The clots that have been tentatively linked to the AstraZeneca and J&J vaccines have particular characteristics: they occur in unusual parts of the body, such as the brain or abdomen, and are coupled with low levels of platelets, cell fragments that aid blood coagulation. Further analysis found other hallmarks of a condition called heparin-induced thrombocytopaenia (HIT), a rare side effect sometimes seen in people who have taken the anti-coagulant heparin1,2,3 — even though the vaccine recipients had not taken that drug. HIT is thought to be triggered when heparin binds to a protein called platelet factor 4. This kicks off an immune response — including the production of antibodies against platelet factor 4 — that ultimately results in platelet destruction and the release of clot-promoting material. The mystery is what serves as the trigger for this syndrome in the absence of heparin. The vaccines produced by AstraZeneca and J&J both rely on adenoviruses, which carry the DNA encoding a coronavirus protein called spike into human cells. The cells’ protein machinery then uses the DNA to make the spike protein, and the body develops an immune response against it. At present, researchers don’t know what component of these vaccines could be causing the unwanted immune response against platelet factor 4. “It could be caused by the vectors, it could be caused by the spike protein, it could be caused by a contaminant present in the vector,” says viral immunologist Hildegund Ertl at the Wistar Institute in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The AstraZeneca and J&J vaccines rely on different adenoviruses, but the appearance of the HIT-like symptoms among recipients of both vaccines — and the apparent lack of a HIT-like response among recipients of a different type of vaccine, based on mRNA — has raised concerns that the problem could be common to vaccines that rely on adenoviruses. Another such vaccine is Sputnik V, developed by the Gamaleya National Center of Epidemiology and Microbiology in Moscow. In a press release, Gamaleya distanced Sputnik V from the other adenoviral COVID-19 vaccines. “All vaccines based on adenoviral vector platform are different and not directly comparable,” it said, pointing out that there are differences in the viruses used, the cells in which they were produced, the sequence of the spike DNA they carry, the methods used to purify them, and the dosage at which they are administered.
Blood Clots, FDA Approval, and the AstraZeneca Covid Vaccine – video with Dr Aaron Carroll - There’s a lot of anxiety about the AstraZeneca vaccine thanks to recent reports of incomplete data, as well as reports on blood clot risks. Let’s take a look at both issues in context, understanding the efficacy data before and after numbers were updated, and understanding blood clot risk in relation to other common situations where blood clots are a potential concern.
Chariots On Fire And The J&J Vaccine Conundrum -- April 18, 2021 - by Bruce Oksol - Last night there was yet another report of a deadly crash and severe fire involving a Tesla; two men died. The story and links were posted here earlier.I don't know how many deadly accidents, fires, incidents there have been involving Tesla but the number of deaths is way more than the one death reported out of 6.8 million J&J Covid-19 vaccinations. With six severe reactions (blood clots) with one reaction leading to death following 6.8 million vaccinations, the J&J Covid-19 vaccination was pulled off the market for an indefinite period of time, despite the fact that the disease can be much more life threatening than the vaccine. It should be noted that the blood clots had not been confirmed to be the result of the vaccine when the decision was made to take the vaccine off the market.And yet here, with what seems to be many more fires and "accidents," and way more deaths than the one death noted above, Tesla has not been pulled off the market. For Covid-19 protection we are advised to wear a mask. Perhaps Nomex should be required for those riding inside a Tesla. It goes without saying social distancing is good advice for both.
Herpes infection possibly linked to COVID-19 vaccine, study says --Herpes infections may be a side effect of a COVID-19 vaccine, experts have revealed.Scientists in Israel identified six cases in a new study of patients developing a skin rash known as herpes zoster — or shingles — after receiving the Pfizer vaccine, according to a study in the Rheumatology journal.Herpes zoster starts off as a small, itchy skin rash, but if left untreated, it could cause nerve damage and pain, the Jerusalem Post reported.This can include a prolonged burning sensation on the skin even after the rash disappears.Researchers from Tel Aviv Sourasky Medical Center and Carmel Medical Center in Haifa found those with autoimmune inflammatory rheumatic diseases had a higher risk of developing the herpes infection people developed herpes zoster after receiving the Pfizer vaccine.Alamy Stock PhotoOut of 491 patients, six people or 1.2 percent experienced the infection, researchers said.The six patients all have mild cases of autoimmune inflammatory rheumatic diseases and were young, though the infection is generally more common in those over the age of 50. “That is why we reported on it,” Dr. Victoria Furer, the lead author, told the outlet. Five of them developed herpes zoster after the first dose and the sixth got it after the second.
The obscure maths theorem that governs the reliability of Covid testing -Maths quiz. If you get a positive result on a Covid test that only gives a false positive one time in every 1,000, what’s the chance that you’ve actually got Covid? Surely it’s 99.9%, right?No! The correct answer is: you have no idea. You don’t have enough information to make the judgment.This is important to know when thinking about “lateral flow tests” (LFTs), the rapid Covid tests that the government has made available to everyone in England, free, up to twice a week. The idea is that in time they could be used to give people permission to go into crowded social spaces – pubs, theatres – and be more confident that they do not have, and so will not spread, the disease. They’ve been used in secondary schools for some time now. There are concerns over LFTs. One is whether they’ll miss a large number of cases, because they’re less sensitive than the slower but more precise polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test. Those concerns are understandable, although defenders of the test say that PCR testing is too sensitive, able to detect viral material in people who had the disease weeks ago, while LFTs should, in theory, only detect people who are infectious. But another concern is that they will tell people that they do have the disease when in fact they don’t – that they will return false positives. The government says – accurately – that the “false positive rate”, the chance of a test returning a positive result in a person who does not have the disease, is less than one in 1,000. And that’s where we came in: you might think that that means, if you’ve had a positive result, that there’s a less than one in 1,000 chance that it’s false. It’s not. Imagine you undergo a test for a rare disease. The test is amazingly accurate: if you have the disease, it will correctly say so 99% of the time; if you don’t have the disease, it will correctly say so 99% of the time.But the disease in question is very rare; just one person in every 10,000 has it. This is known as your “prior probability”: the background rate in the population.So now imagine you test 1 million people. There are 100 people who have the disease: your test correctly identifies 99 of them. And there are 999,900 people who don’t: your test correctly identifies 989,901 of them.But that means that your test, despite giving the right answer in 99% of cases, has told 9,999 people that they have the disease, when in fact they don’t. So if you get a positive result, in this case, your chance of actually having the diseaseis 99 in 10,098, or just under 1%. If you took this test entirely at face value, then you’d be scaring a lot of people, and sending them for intrusive, potentially dangerous medical procedures, on the back of a misdiagnosis. Without knowing the prior probability, you don’t know how likely it is that a result is false or true. If the disease was not so rare – if, say, 1% of people had it – your results would be totally different. Then you’d have 9,900 false positives, but also 9,990 true positives. So if you had a positive result, it would be more than 50% likely to be true.
Coronavirus variant P.1 is twice as transmissible as earlier strains --The P.1 coronavirus variant first identified in Brazil may be twice as transmissible as earlier strains and may evade up to nearly half of immune defenses built during previous infections, a new study suggests.According to data collected in Manaus, Brazil, P.1 probably arose in mid-November 2020 in the city, researchers report April 14 in Science. The variant quickly rose to prominence there and spread to the rest of Brazil and at least 37 other countries, including the United States.Earlier examinations of the variant’s genetic makeup have shown that P.1 contains many differences from earlier strains, including 10 amino acid changes in the spike protein, which helps the virus infect cells. Three of those spike protein changes are of concern because they are the same mutations that allow other worrisome variants to bind more tightly to human proteins or to evade antibodies (SN: 2/5/21). Simulations of P.1’s properties suggest that the variant is 1.7 to 2.4 times more transmissible than the previous SARS-CoV-2 strain. It is not clear whether that increase in transmissibility is because people produce more of the virus or have longer infections.Some studies have hinted that people who previously had COVID-19 can get infected with P.1. The new study suggests that people who had earlier infections have about 54 percent to 79 percent of the protection against P.1 as they do against other local strains. That partial immunity may leave people vulnerable to reinfection with the variant. Whether the virus makes people sicker or is more deadly than other strains is not clear. The researchers estimate that coronavirus infections were 1.2 to 1.9 times more likely to result in death after P.1 emerged than before. But Manaus’ health care system has been under strain, so the increase in deaths may be due to overburdened hospitals.
Air pollution may affect severity and hospitalization in COVID-19 patients -Patients who have preexisting respiratory conditions such as asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and live in areas with high levels of air pollution have a greater chance of hospitalization if they contract COVID-19, says a University of Cincinnati researcher.Angelico Mendy, MD, PhD, assistant professor of environmental and public health sciences, at the UC College of Medicine, looked at the health outcomes and backgrounds of 1,128 COVID-19 patients at UC Health, the UC-affiliated health care system in Greater Cincinnati.Mendy led a team of researchers in an individual-level study which used a statistical model to evaluate the association between long-term exposure to particulate matter less or equal to 2.5 micrometers -- it refers to a mixture of tiny particles and droplets in the air that are two-and-one half microns or less in width -- and hospitalizations for COVID-19. Medical records allowed researchers to use patients' zip codes for estimating their particulate exposure over a 10-year period."Particulate matter is very small, small enough to be inhaled deep into the lungs, they cross into the blood and also affect other organ systems," says Mendy. "Air pollution as a result of emissions from automobiles, factories or other sources is a generator of particulate matter.""Our study didn't find any correlation between severity of COVID-19 and particulate matter in general, but we found something for people who had asthma and COPD," says Mendy. "People who have preexisting asthma and COPD, when they are exposed to higher levels of particulate matter, they are more likely to have severe COVID-19, severe enough to be hospitalized." Researchers found that a one-unit increase in particulate matter 2.5 was associated with a 60% higher chance of hospitalization for COVID-19 patients with pre-existing respiratory disease. For patients without respiratory disease, no association was observed.The study's findings were published online in the scholarly journal Respiratory Medicine.
Preventing evictions remains critical to controlling COVID-19, study finds - Renter protection policies that have curbed mass evictions during the COVID-19 pandemic have played a key role in preventing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in U.S. cities, according to a new study published in Nature Communications.Using an epidemiological model to predict how evictions and eviction moratoria would impact the epidemic, the researchers found, for instance, that in a city of 1 million in which 1 percent of households experience eviction monthly, this could lead to up to 49,000 excess COVID-19 infections. In Philadelphia alone, a fivefold increase in evictions, predicted by some economic analyses, could lead to 53,000 extra infections. The study was led by researchers in the Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania, Johns Hopkins University, and the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign."Our model shows clearly that policies to stem evictions are not only a warranted but a necessary component of COVID control. As long as the virus is circulating, ending these protections could have devastating implications in the United States,"
COVID-19: Pregnant women face higher risk of death - Pregnant women infected with COVID-19 face a higher risk of death than those who are not, a new study has revealed. The analysis, by a team of international scientists from the University of Oxford and published on the JAMA Paediatrics Network, found that pregnant women with the infection are also more likely to see their newborn babies die of the virus. “Women with COVID-19 diagnosis were at increased risk of a composite maternal morbidity and mortality index. Newborns of women with COVID-19 diagnosis had significantly higher severe neonatal morbidity index and severe perinatal morbidity and mortality index compared with newborns of women without COVID-19 diagnosis,” a statement from the Network said. “This study indicates a consistent association between pregnant individuals with COVID-19 diagnosis and higher rates of adverse outcomes, including maternal mortality, preeclampsia, and preterm birth compared with pregnant individuals without COVID-19 diagnosis,” it added. A total of 2,130 pregnant women across 18 countries, including the UK, France, Italy and the US, were examined at 43 hospitals between March and October 2020. During this period 706 women had contracted the virus, 11 of whom died during pregnancy, while a further 1,424 were cleared of the infection. The women had a 76% higher risk of contracting pre-eclampsia, a medical condition that causes blood pressure to rise. 59% were also more likely to give birth prematurely and would require their newborns to spend time in neonatal intensive care units.
Michigan’s spring break plateau shows a lockdown could stop pandemic surge -- Michigan remains the hottest pandemic hotspot in the US, where the more-contagious B.1.1.7 variant is now rampant in every part of the state and daily case rates have remained above 70 per 100,000 for nearly two weeks. Intensive care units (ICUs) are at 84 percent capacity, the highest in the nation, and COVID-19 patients fill 22 percent of all adult beds in Michigan’s hospitals, which are rationing healthcare to make room for more. After the decline of the fall/winter surge in January, B.1.1.7 arrived in Michigan and took hold as school districts across the state were returning to in-person learning. The number of Michiganders who were confirmed COVID-19 positive each day surged from a low of 1,045 on February 20 to more than 7,000 by April 9. Though it still leads the nation, Michigan appears to have reached a plateau between 7,000 and 8,000 daily new cases for now. Significantly, this leveling-off coincides with a sharp reduction in the number of outbreaks reported at K-12 schools and school sporting events during and following the spring break, which saw schools across Michigan closed for either the last week of March or the first week of April on a district-by-district basis. Schools have accounted for far more outbreaks in Michigan than any other setting since the new surge began in late February. Schools and school sporting events were the only places in Michigan where the rate of new outbreaks declined over the past two weeks, and it was a huge decline. Outbreaks traced to schools fell from an all-time high of 81 per week on April 5, to 43 on April 19—a 46 percent drop over just two weeks. School sports outbreaks also fell by one quarter over the same period, from 28 to 21 weekly outbreaks. On the other hand, at factories, nursing homes, retailers and restaurants—which of course did not observe spring break—all these settings continued to see rising numbers of outbreaks over the same two-week period. For the first time this year, the worst vector of spread in Michigan was manufacturing and construction jobs, with 47 outbreaks last week, the highest number yet recorded in this setting by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services (MDHHS). The situation in Michigan’s auto plants in particular has spiraled out of control. Workers at Stellantis’ Jefferson Assembly plant in Detroit walked out last Friday when management ran out of masks to give workers at the entrance. The numbers show that closing schools for spring break immediately blunted the skyrocketing trajectory of the pandemic in Michigan. At the same time, keeping factories, workplaces, nursing homes and restaurants open resulted in a continued increase in the spread of COVID-19 in those settings. The strong indication is that a coordinated shutdown of schools, workplaces and in-person shopping and dining would bring an end to Michigan’s surge and suppress the spread of the virus.
First cases of Brazil COVID-19 variant strain surface in Delaware - Delaware now has its first cases of the COVID-19 variant strain from Brazil. The Delaware Division of Public Health announced Friday, April 16, 2021, that the state has three cases of the P.1 Brazil variant, first found in the U.S. in January. Just this past week, 92 cases of COVID-19 variants were identified in the state. In total, 167 adults ranging in age from 18 to 99 and 29 individuals under the age of 18 have contracted variant virus strains. Of those, 132 are from New Castle County. Forty-three are from Kent County, and 21 are from Sussex County The most prevalent variants circulating in the state are the B.1.17 United Kingdom variant with 95 cases, first identified in the state in January, and the B.1.525 New York variant with 81 cases. Delaware has just one case of the South African variant, first identified in March. "Virus mutation is common. Public health approach and treatments are currently not any different, but as these variants may be more contagious, it is even more important that individuals remain vigilant and continue taking the necessary steps to avoid spreading the virus – wear a mask, wash your hands, avoid gatherings," said the Division of Public Health. According to the CDC, the UK, Brazil, South African, and California variants seem to spread "more easily" and "quickly" than other variants, which they caution may lead to more cases of COVID-19. "So far, studies suggest that antibodies generated through vaccination with currently authorized vaccines recognize these variants. This is being closely investigated and more studies are underway," the CDC said on its website on April 2, 2021.
April 19th COVID-19 Vaccinations, New Cases, Hospitalizations; Spring Wave May Have Peaked --According to the CDC, 211.6 million doses have been administered. 33.0% of the population over 18 is fully vaccinated, and 50.7% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose (131.0 million people over 18 have had at least one dose). And check out COVID Act Now to see how each state is doing. Over 12,000 US deaths were reported so far in April due to COVID. This graph shows the daily (columns) 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported. Note: The ups and downs during the Winter surge were related to reporting delays due to the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays. This data is from the CDC. The 7-day average is 66,747, down from 67,964 yesterday, and close to the summer surge peak of 67,337 on July 23, 2020.The second graph shows the number of people hospitalized.This data is also from the CDC. The CDC cautions that due to reporting delays, the area in grey will probably increase. The current 7-day average is 36,118, down from 36,976, reported yesterday, and well above the post-summer surge low of 23,000.
One month after schools reopened, Pennsylvania enters fourth surge of pandemic -The coronavirus continues to spread through Pennsylvania at an alarming rate, with the state now recording nearly 5,000 cases a day, double the rate a month ago. An average of 40 people are dying across the state each day, and the surge of new cases portends a new wave of deaths in the coming weeks. The number of hospitalizations has doubled since mid-March to almost 3,000, 20 percent of which are in intensive care units (ICUs). This rapid rise in cases and hospitalizations takes place roughly a month after schools reopened in Philadelphia and throughout the state, and is occurring despite the ramping up of vaccinations. More than 42 percent of Pennsylvanians have received their first shot and 25 percent are fully vaccinated. However, there are still millions of people who are vulnerable to infection. Under these conditions, the spread of more contagious and deadly variants is particularly concerning. An estimated one-third of all COVID-19 cases in Pennsylvania are caused by a variant strain, and 28 percent of cases are caused by the B.1.1.7 UK variant. With limited resources for genome sequencing, the true prevalence of the UK variant is likely much higher. The largest group of those infected has reduced in age to those 45-64, and the UK variant has shown a proclivity for infecting young people aged 5-17. Despite the fact that Pennsylvania has entered a fourth wave of the pandemic, state officials have explicitly stated their intention to continue the relaxation of standard public health measures. Alison Beam, Pennsylvania’s acting health secretary, said the state did not have plans to impose new lockdowns. She encouraged people to wear masks, social distance and get vaccinated, but refused to acknowledge the threat of a new wave, saying, “At this stage, our hospitals have not indicated to us that they are overrun or that they foresee being overrun. That will be truly one of our key gauges of when any further mitigation effort would need to be even contemplated.” This is an act of criminal negligence, tantamount to informing a cancer patient to wait until the illness is terminal before receiving treatment.
COVID-19: How much of the UK variant is there in Erie County? - Erie County health officials expect to learn next week if the B.1.1.7 variant is the county's dominant COVID-19 strain and possibly discover if it's the cause for a recent rise in new cases.Biobot, the company that tests Erie Wastewater Treatment Plant sewage samples for COVID-19, is expected to provide quantitative results Monday or Tuesday for the variant, commonly called the U.K. variant. In recent weeks, Biobot has confirmed the variant's presence in local samples but not how much variant those samples contain, said Howard Nadworny, M.D., a Saint Vincent Hospital infectious diseases specialist who is involved in the sampling project."That variant is associated with about a 50% increase in contagiousness and about a 50% to 60% increased risk of more severe cases," Nadworny said. "If we have a lot of B.1.1.7 in our (waste)water, it would predict that it ought to be spreading more readily. If you're going to stop it from spreading, you have to be even more diligent with mask wearing and social distancing."Nadworny said finding relatively little B.1.1.7 virus in the wastewater samples also would provide answers to the county's recent increase in new COVID-19 cases. The county's number of new cases has increased each of the past three weeks."It would indicate that people are being even more casual and less diligent about precautions," Nadworny said. "Because it would mean the original strain is spreading even before B.1.1.7 gets here."Health officials expect to learn the B.1.1.7 variant is widespread in Erie County. Fourteen cases of the variant have been found in the county, including eight reported within the last week, said Charlotte Berringer, R.N., director of community health services for the Erie County Department of Health. Erie County reported 43 new cases of COVID-19 and no additional deaths on Thursday. The county has 19,726 total cases of COVID-19, 457 deaths and 68,251 negative tests since the pandemic started.At least 26,715 county residents are partially vaccinated against COVID-19 and 72,066 are fully vaccinated, according to the state health department.
April 20th COVID-19 Vaccinations, New Cases, Hospitalizations --According to the CDC, 213.4 million doses have been administered. 33.3% of the population over 18 is fully vaccinated, and 51.1% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose (131.9 million people over 18 have had at least one dose). And check out COVID Act Now to see how each state is doing. Almost 13,000 US deaths were reported so far in April due to COVID. This graph shows the daily (columns) 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported. Note: The ups and downs during the Winter surge were related to reporting delays due to the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays.This data is from the CDC.The 7-day average is 66,687, down from 68,602 yesterday, and close to the summer surge peak of 67,337 on July 23, 2020.The second graph shows the number of people hospitalized.This data is also from the CDC.The CDC cautions that due to reporting delays, the area in grey will probably increase. The current 7-day average is 38,185, up from 36,118, reported yesterday, and well above the post-summer surge low of 23,000.
Douglas County Health Department updates spread of COVID-19 strains among residents — Wednesday morning, Douglas County Health Director Dr. Adi Pour gave an update on the status of COVID-19 in the county. Dr. Pour said Douglas County was seeing 20 new COVID-19 cases per 100,000 people. She said while what was good, there was still work to be done. The health department's goal is 10 new cases or below per 100,000 people. Roughly 60% of the county's residents have been tested for COVID-19, Dr. Pour said. She said that's roughly 333,000 people and close to one million total tests. Dr. Pour said 228 variant strains of COVID-19 have been identified in the county. She said most of those were the U.K. variant, but experts were also seeing cases of the California and Brazil variants, too. Justin Frederick with the Douglas County Health Department broke down the numbers regarding the U.K. variant within the county. He said the first known case of the variant was reported in Nebraska on Feb. 26. From February to March, Frederick said the county saw a 14.94% increase in those variant cases overall, a 30.99% increase in people ages 0 to 19, and a 124.53% increase in people ages 0 to 4. Dr. Pour said the county has reported five deaths related to COVID-19 so far this April. The Douglas County Health Department urges people to sign up to get vaccinated against COVID-19. Anyone 16 and older may sign up for appointments, but people 18 and younger must have parental consent. Experts emphasize the shots are free of charge.
Lamont: Deadlier, more infectious strain could comprise half of CT COVID cases - Variants from the United Kingdom and New York comprised 85 percent of Connecticut’s COVID cases sampled last week, according to a new report. About half of the cases sampled contained the U.K. variant known as B.1.1.7, Gov. Ned Lamont warned. “It could be as high as 50 percent now,” Lamont said Thursday during his pandemic briefing. “The bad news is it’s highly infectious, so while over half of our population has been vaccinated, it’s spreading fast in the other half of the population.” “The good news is the vaccines work — it works against this variant,” the governor added. According to the latest report from Jackson Laboratory and the Nathan Grubaugh Lab at the Yale School of Public Health, cases of B.1.1.7 comprised about 51 percent of all positive COVID-19 cases sampled since the previous week. That means B.1.1.7 cases increased about 9 percent from the previous week. All told, 945 cases of the variant have been identified in Connecticut through genomic sequencing, a process that involves testing samples from positive COVID-19 test kits.
Two more types of COVID-19 variants found in Rock Co. - Two more of the more contagious strains of coronavirus have been found in Rock Co., health officials confirm. On Thursday, the Rock Co. Health Dept. warned the variants first discovered in Brazilian travelers in Japan and the one originally found in South Africa, variants P.1 and B.1.351, respectively, were recently identified there. The agency explained that researchers have determined those two varieties spread more rapidly than the original coronavirus strain, noting that a genetic mutation could affect the ability of an infected person’s immune system to recognize and fight off the virus. That also means antibodies developed from a previous infection may not protect someone from either of these strains. Health officials did point out that experts do not believe either variant is association with more severe COVID-19-related illnesses. These discoveries are the second and third of the variants found in Rock Co. so far. Previously, officials had identified the British strain there as well. Of the four more concerning variants being tracked by the Dept. of Health Services, only the one discovered in California, known as B.1.427/B.1.429, has not been found in the county. However, that variant is the second most commonly found in Wisconsin and tied for the most common in south-central Wisconsin.
Wisconsin confirms 3rd COVID-19 variant strain found in state --State health officials on Friday confirmed a third coronavirus variant has been found in Wisconsin. According to the Department of Health Services, the variant is referred to as P.1 and is different from the other variants that have also been confirmed in Wisconsin, B.1.1.7 and B.1.351. According to epidemiologic and modeling studies, researchers have found that this new strain, similar to B.1.1.7 and B.1.351, spreads more rapidly and easily than the original strain of SARS-CoV-2. However, P.1 has unique mutations that may affect antibodies' ability, generated through previous COVID-19 infection or through vaccination, to recognize and fight off the virus. This means variant P.1 may be able to infect people more easily, stated DHS. "DHS continues to monitor for new SARS-CoV-2 variants in collaboration with our laboratory partners," Chief Medical Officer Dr. Ryan Westergaard said. "Because these new variants of concern may spread more easily than the original strain of SARS-CoV-2, it is important to get vaccinated when you are able. Vaccines, along with our other public health practices, give the virus less of an opportunity to spread and mutate."
COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations on the rise in Alabama after easing of restrictions - On April 7, Alabama’s Republican Governor Kay Ivey lifted the state’s mask mandate, citing a decline in cases and hospitalizations since peak numbers in January. During a press conference, both Ivey and State Health Officer Dr. Scott Harris spoke gushingly of the state of the pandemic in Alabama, saying “we’ve finally rounded the corner” and that the “pandemic is almost over.” Obligatory mention was made of the fact that the virus continues to spread, but they assured the public that “common sense” and “personal responsibility” were enough to keep the state’s numbers down. To place the onus of the pandemic on the population obscures the reality that the widespread death and social catastrophe is the result of policies consciously implemented by governments around the world, which have prioritized corporate profits over human lives. Since March of 2020, after the US Congress passed the so-called CARES Act and gave trillions of dollars to Wall Street, the federal, state and local governments, aided by the corporate media, have insisted that the public must learn to live with the virus. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), under the pressure of the Trump and now Biden administrations, has distorted science to claim that schools can safely reopen. In reality, the measures needed to stop the spread of the virus and eradicate the pandemic are well known by governments, but willfully ignored. As the World Socialist Web Site recently noted, comprehensive “testing, contact tracing and quarantining… were employed in all nations that have managed to rein in the virus. As of March 22, 2021, Taiwan, a country of 24 million people, has had 1,006 reported infections and 10 deaths. In Singapore, home to five million people, new cases have remained in the single or low double digits since October 2020.” Such measures are not widespread in the US and Alabama is no exception.
Three million dead from the coronavirus pandemic --The world has passed another grim milestone: 3 million dead from the coronavirus pandemic. This staggering loss of life, after little more than a year, is a devastating indictment of the ruling elites of every major country and of the capitalist system as a whole. And even as this latest barrier is surpassed, the pandemic is accelerating and is poised to produce even more deaths in the months to come. Globally, the average number of daily confirmed cases is at the highest rate during the entire pandemic. It has more than doubled from a low in mid-February of 361,000 to more than 752,000. During that same period, more than 520,000 men, women and children died, and the official count of daily deaths, at nearly 12,000, is climbing toward the peak seen this past January of just over 14,000. The pandemic has accelerated with extraordinary rapidity in countries such as Brazil and India. In Brazil, the daily cases have increased by about 50 percent to more than 65,000. The real toll, however, can be seen in the daily death counts, which have nearly tripled since February to almost 3,000 per day, the highest rate in the country since the pandemic began and second only to this past winter in the United States, when daily deaths at times reached nearly 3,500. In India, the situation is even more dire. In the past two months, the number of daily cases has rocketed from a low of 11,000 to more than 200,000, an 18-fold increase. Correspondingly, the number of active cases has grown from 138,000 to more than 1.8 million, and the daily death rate has shot up from less than 100 to more than 1,100. India currently has the highest number of confirmed new cases each day and is well on its way to surpassing the records set by the United States. Such dramatic explosions of the virus are not just confined to nations that have already had previous waves of the pandemic. In Papua New Guinea, where public officials had been able to limit the total number of infections to just 900 since the pandemic began, there has been a tenfold increase in the number of known coronavirus cases over the past two months, with total cases now more than 9,500. Deaths have similarly spiked from less than 10, out of a population of 9 million, to nearly 90. Countries in Eastern Europe have also faced new waves the contagion. Daily new cases in Bulgaria spiked sharply in February, reaching a height of more than 3,600 new cases a day in March, with more than 110 new deaths every day. In Hungary, the daily case count only recently dropped below 5,000, and the death rate is still at more than 250, triple what it was two and a half months ago. The official number of coronavirus deaths in Germany reached 80,000 yesterday, and many more will die in the coming days because of the refusal by the government to close schools and factories despite a massive third wave of the virus. There are currently around 30,000 new infections every day, and the health care system is overwhelmed. The accelerating spread of the virus is compounded by the spread of new and more infectious variants of the virus, which have been allowed to mutate innumerable times throughout the now nearly 142 million officially recorded coronavirus infections. In India, a variant that is a combination of one that originated in South Africa and the US West Coast is spreading ferociously, along with the UK variant. In Brazil, the P.1. variant is suspected to be the reason behind the high death rate. In both countries, underfunded hospital systems, unable to provide the necessary care for the new influx of hundreds of thousands of patients, are on the brink of collapse.
India hit by tsunami of COVID-19 infections as daily new cases surpass 250,000 - India has reported more than 200,000 COVID-19 cases daily since April 15, more than double the number recorded in any other country in the world. Despite this, India’s far-right Narendra Modi-led government has refused to take any measures to curb the spread of the pandemic. On Saturday, the health ministry reported 234,692 cases during the previous 24 hours. A new daily record was set Sunday with 261,500 new infections, taking the number of active cases to a record 1.8 million. Underscoring the virus’ spread across India, the five states with the most new infections were Maharashtra in the west (67,123), Uttar Pradesh (27,734) and Delhi (24,375) in the north, Karnataka in the south (17,489), and Chhattisgarh (16,083) in the center-east. According to epidemiologist and Public Health Foundation head Giridhara Babu, this dire situation is set to deteriorate still further. He warned the caseload could increase to 300,000-400,000 per day by May 5. To date, India has had 14.5 million recorded COVID-19 infections, the second-highest number of cases in the world. But by May 1, this total could rise to 18 million. The official death toll rose Sunday to 177,150 following a record 1,501 fatalities in the previous 24 hours. India’s relatively low official death figures have been disputed by medical experts, who say that authorities are vastly undercounting the dead. An Indian news site, The Wire reported on the situation in Madhya Pradesh as an example of the undercounting of deaths: “There were 37 bodies waiting to be cremated on April 12 at Bhopal’s Bhadbhada facility whereas the Madhya Pradesh bulletin listed only 37 deaths in the whole state on that day,” noted the report. “Similarly, on April 8, 35 bodies had to be cremated in Bhopal alone, but the bulletin specified only 27 deaths; . The Modi government has followed the policy of “herd immunity,” refusing to impose necessary lockdown measures or provide India’s impoverished masses with the means to shelter at home. Modi repeatedly boasted about India’s capability to produce vaccines and said that India was launching the “world’s biggest vaccination programme.” By March 23, at the beginning of the new wave, the Indian government had only vaccinated 39 million people or 2.7 percent of the population. To bolster the government’s propaganda of normalcy, New Delhi allowed the ongoing mega Hindu religious event Kumbh Mela to go ahead, with millions of Hindu devotees from all over the country congregating at Haridwar on the shores of the Ganges. However, yesterday Modi hypocritically told religious leaders the festival should be “symbolic.” At least 2,000 people, including religious leaders, are already reported as infected in the city of Haridwar alone. The Modi government has also launched mass election propaganda campaigns in the state of West Bengal along with other political parties, without paying attention to public health rules, including social distancing. The UK variant of the coronavirus is reported in 18 to 19 states or 70 to 80 districts in India, while the South African and Brazilian variants are also found in a lesser number of districts. Double mutant variants, which may be more infectious or reduce vaccine effectiveness, have been found in Maharashtra, Delhi, West Bengal, Gujarat, Karnataka, and Madhya Pradesh.
India has recorded more than 15 million COVID-19 cases -- India has recorded more than 15 million cases of the coronavirus, as it battles a new coronavirus variant.As of Monday, India had recorded 15,061,805 cases of the coronavirus and more than 178,700 deaths, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.It reported 273,810 new infections on Monday.That means it has the world's second-highest number of cases and has second-highest death toll — behind only the US on both counts.Officials are investigating if the new variant found there spreads easier or makes vaccines less effective than other dominant forms of the virus. The country's vaccination rollout has also been relatively slowThe Indian capital of New Delhi will be put in a six-day lockdown from Monday night, with the city's health minister saying that its healthcare system could break.UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson canceled his planned trip to India. Both countries said in a joint statement that the cancellation was due to "the current coronavirus situation."
Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine 97.6% effective in real-world study (Reuters) - Russian scientists have found the Sputnik V vaccine 97.6% effective against COVID-19 in a "real-world" assessment based on data from 3.8 million people, Moscow's Gamaleya Institute and the Russian Direct Investment Fund said on Monday. The new effectiveness rate is higher than the 91.6% rate outlined in results from a large-scale trial of Sputnik V that was published in The Lancet medical journal earlier this year, and compares favourably with data on the effectiveness of other COVID-19 vaccines. The new data was based on 3.8 million Russians who received both a first shot and a booster shot as part of the national roll-out of Sputnik V. "This data confirms that Sputnik V demonstrates one of the best protection rates against coronavirus among all vaccines," said Kirill Dmitriev, head of the RDIF sovereign wealth fund which is backing the vaccine. The incidence of infection was calculated from the 35th day from the first injection, the statement said, showing an incidence rate of 0.027%. The incidence of infection among unvaccinated adults during a considerable period following the launch of mass vaccination in Russia was 1.1%, it said, without specifying the date range used. The new data will be published in a peer-reviewed medical journal next month, the statement added. The data was collated from a database kept by the health ministry that registers vaccinated people, as well as a separate database of people who were infected with COVID-19 in the country, the statement said
Canada’s vaccine rollout debacle key contributor to COVID-19 third wave - The continued dysfunction of Canada’s COVID-19 vaccine rollout threatens to contribute to ever greater deaths as a third wave of the pandemic—driven by new, more contagious and lethal variants—surges across the country. The absence of large-scale inoculation against the virus, coupled with the ruling elite’s rejection of the public health measures necessary to stop its spread, are causing the third wave to spread far more quickly than the previous two. As a result, Canada’s health care system, especially in Ontario, is on the verge of collapse. Hospital intensive care units (ICU) in Ontario are already under great strain, with patients who require ventilators being moved to cities outside hotspots to reduce the pressure. Figures presented to the Ontario government predict up to 18,000 infections per day and 1,800 ICU patients by the end of next month in a worst-case scenario. So low are supplies of tocilizumab, an anti-inflammatory drug that reduces death rates among seriously ill COVID-19 patients, the province’s COVID-19 Science Advisory Table has recommended the province prepare to use a lottery to determine who will get it, in other words who will be given a chance to live and who will be left to die. Canada’s Chief Medical Officer Theresa Tam has admitted that the spread of the disease is outpacing the vaccine rollout. In fact, the vaccine campaign is barely running at half of its capacity, according to a report by Ipolitics. Only 1.8 million people were vaccinated in the seven days to April 20, just 58 percent of the 3.1 million weekly vaccines that could have been administered. As of Tuesday, less than 25 percent of Canadians had received a first dose, and just 2.13 percent were fully vaccinated as of April 16, the most recent date for which official statistics are available. Having had to abandon their original vaccine dosage timeline, Canada’s federal and provincial governments have moved to a strategy of extending the time between the requisite first and second doses to four months in hopes of providing each Canadian a single dose sooner, and thereby reducing the rate of severe cases and hospitalizations. According to the guidelines issued by the National Advisory Committee on Immunization, the lengthy delay in the administration of the second dose should be applied to everyone except those with specific conditions, such as cancer diagnoses that would place them at greater risk.
Infections of South African and Kent coronavirus variants have already been recorded in vaccinated people, NHS expert warns Cases of people contracting the South African and Kent variants of the virus after being vaccinated have already been recorded, an NHS expert warned yesterday.Dr Susan Hopkins, chief medical adviser for NHS Test and Trace, reassured that vaccines were a ‘primer’ for the immune system and would help reduce hospitalisations and deaths. But she said: ‘We have seen some people who have had their first dose of the vaccine who have had the South African variant and the variant that arose in Kent.‘That’s to be expected, we know that these vaccines aren’t 100 per cent protecting you against infection and that’s why we ask people to take caution.’She told BBC’s The Andrew Marr show: ‘You can see that [the vaccines are] not as good against the South African variant as they are against our own [variant] B117 at preventing infection and transmission.’However, she added: ‘When your immune system is exposed to a variation of the same virus it responds faster and more adequately to protect you against severe disease.’ It comes as scientists in Brazil have identified two cases where people were simultaneously infected with two different variants of Covid-19, according to a study.Both cases were women in their 30s who had typical moderate flu-like symptoms and did not become severely ill, according to the report in the journal Virus Research.Earlier this month the Lancet also reported a case from Nevada where a man was infected by two different strains of the coronavirus – which is officially known as SARS-CoV-2. The second infection was more severe than the first. The study authors warned: ‘Previous exposure to SARS-CoV-2 might not guarantee total immunity in all cases.’
UK capital London centre of new Covid-19 variants, as R value rises above 1 -- Four London boroughs had to begin “surge testing” after new cases of Covid-19 “variants of concern” were detected. The affected boroughs are Wandsworth, Lambeth, Barnet, Southwark, which have a combined population of over 1.3 million. This comes as Boris Johnson’s Conservative government advanced to the next stage of ending the “last lockdown” last Monday, involving the opening of pubs, restaurants, gyms, hair salons and a host of non-essential retail shops. This coincided with the end of the Easter Break and a return to schools. As of April 16, London’s R (Reproduction) rate stands at a best estimate of between 0.8 and 1.1. The figure marks a hike from the previous week, when scientists estimated that R was between 0.8 and 1.0 in the capital. The R rate represents the rate of the spread of coronavirus. When the figure is above 1, an outbreak can grow exponentially. An R of 1.1 means that 10 people can infect 11 others. It is London’s highest rate since England entered its third national lockdown three months ago. During the first week of January, after restrictions had to be imposed, the capital’s R rate hit a peak of 1.4. Scientists anticipated infections to rise in line with greater social mixing alongside the gradual easing of lockdown measures. A lag time between the spread of coronavirus and the configuration of infection rates means the figure is likely to rise over the next few weeks. Last week’s estimate will not have factored in the impact of pubs, restaurants and non-essential shops reopening from April 12. A total of 56 cases of the variant first identified in South Africa (B.1.351) were found in London during the week to April 14, according to data released Thursday, taking the total confirmed cases since it was first detected in December to 600, up by 56 in a week. It may already be too late to stem the spread of the highly transmissible strain. Dr Zubaida Haque, a member of Independent SAGE (scientists who have criticised aspects of the government's COVID-19 response) said she was concerned that “the horse may have already bolted”. The relaxation of lockdown rules in England last week and children’s return to school were “the perfect storm” for variants to spread. The South African variant has the potential to start a new wave of the pandemic, especially as several of those infected had received at least one shot of either the AstraZeneca or Pfizer vaccine. This suggests the variant may have been able to resist vaccine protection, according to one test and trace official. Danny Altmann, professor of immunology at Imperial College London declared that the variant “could completely devastate us” if health officials were unable to prevent it from spreading nationwide, like B.1.1.7 (the Kent variant) did at the end of last year.
Hospitals in Germany on the brink of collapse - Although coronavirus infections are rising dramatically and scientists and doctors are urgently warning of an overload of the health system, the federal and state governments continue their unscrupulous profits-before-lives policy. Even the completely inadequate federal “ emergency brake ” is being deliberately watered down and delayed. Now, hospitals are on the verge of being overloaded. The situation in Thuringia is particularly dramatic. Hospitals in Jena and the hotspot Greiz, where the incidence level has been over 500 per 100,000 for weeks, can no longer treat coronavirus patients who need intensive care. Initially, five patients seriously ill with COVID-19 will be transferred to intensive care units in other German states, as Professor Michael Bauer, head physician of the Jena Clinic for Anaesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine, announced. According to the German Interdisciplinary Association for Intensive and Emergency Medicine (DIVI), 220 COVID-19 patients are currently in intensive care units in Thuringian hospitals. Of these, more than half (128) are receiving invasive ventilation, 638 of 701 intensive care beds are occupied, 63 beds are vacant, of which only 29 are specifically equipped for the treatment of COVID-19 patients, and the number of admissions is increasing daily. On Friday, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) reported a further 1,190 new infections in Thuringia and an increase in the incidence rate to 259. Already by the end of 2020, several COVID-19 patients had to be transferred from Thuringia. The rising numbers are the result of the policies of the state government under Bodo Ramelow (Left Party), opening up businesses and the education system. Despite the foreseeable development, it had decided on further relaxations before Easter. In Bavaria, too, most hospitals are already in emergency mode. On average, the number of COVID-19 patients in Bavarian hospitals has doubled in the last three weeks. Roland Engehausen, managing director of the Bavarian Hospital Association (BKG), said a new peak in hospitals could certainly be expected at the end of the month. He went on to warn, “If the number of newly infected people doesn’t go down, we’ll be in an area we don’t know from May.” Currently, more than 2,500 COVID-19 patients are being treated in Bavarian hospitals; 700 are receiving intensive medical care. A week ago, there were almost 200 fewer. In the entire state, there are only 340 intensive care beds with the option of invasive ventilation. A spokeswoman for the health ministry had to admit that if the increase continued, there would be “an impairment of hospital care, especially regular emergency care.” A spokeswoman for Nuremberg Hospital said Friday that all intensive care beds in the region had been occupied for a short time on Thursday evening.
Covid-19: Coronavirus strain first detected in UK now accounts for more than 80% of cases in Spain, but has not overwhelmed hospitals –= The strain of the coronavirus that was first detected in England has lived up to the threatening reputation that preceded it. The variant was said to be more contagious, and so it has proven to be. While in January it accounted for less than 2% of new cases, now that figure is in excess of 80%, according to the latest data from the Spanish Health Ministry. But there were also fears that it was more lethal, and would push Spain’s hospitals into a critical condition – something that has not happened so far. This is in contrast to what was seen in the United Kingdom at the start of the year and in France in recent weeks.Experts consulted by EL PAÍS confirm that B.1.1.7, as the variant is known, is indeed causing some more serious cases of Covid-19, although more research is needed to determine whether it is genuinely increasing mortality. The same experts explain that the impact of the strain is having a lesser effect on the Spanish healthcare system. “The worst predictions have not come to pass, which is obviously good news, but it also shows that we still lack a lot of knowledge about the pandemic,” explains Quique Bassat, an epidemiologist and a researcher from ISGlobal, an institute for global health based in Barcelona. “It is not easy to explain why what has happened in other countries has not been repeated here.”According to the latest report on new coronavirus variants published by the Health Ministry, and dated April 12, the British variant accounts for 90% of new cases in six of Spain’s 17 regions – Andalusia, Asturias, Castilla y León, Valencia, Galicia and Navarre – and 80% in the rest apart from Castilla-La Mancha (77%), Aragón (65%) and Madrid (64%).“It’s a fact that it has quickly become the dominant strain in Spain,” explains Juan Carlos Galán, the head of virology at Madrid’s Hospital Universitario Ramón y Cajal. “What we still need to research more is whether it causes more serious symptoms or higher mortality rates. There is evidence that suggests that it does, in particular in the 40 to 50 age group, but we still need the evidence to back this up,” he adds.
India’s devastating outbreak is driving the global coronavirus surge — More than a year after the pandemic began, infections worldwide have surpassed their previous peak. The average number ofcoronavirus cases reported each day is now higher than it has ever been.“Cases and deaths are continuing to increase at worrying rates,” said World Health Organization chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus on Friday.A major reason for the increase: the ferocity of India’s second wave. The country accounts for about one in three of all new cases. It wasn’t supposed to happen like this. Earlier this year, India appeared to be weathering the pandemic. The number of daily cases dropped below 10,000 and the government launched a vaccination drive powered by locally made vaccines. But experts say that changes in behavior and the influence of new variants have combined to produce a tidal wave of new cases.India is adding more than 250,000 new infections a day — and if current trends continue, that figure could soar to 500,000 within a month, said Bhramar Mukherjee, a biostatistician at the University of Michigan. Northern and Western states are the hardest hit by the new surge in covid-19 cases in India Daily reported cases per 100,000 people by state.Cases are spiking across several states. Delhi has reported the most cases per capita in the last week, followed by Lakshadweep, Ladakh and Chhattisgarh.While infections are rising around the country, some places are bearing the brunt of the surge. Six states and Delhi, the nation’s capital, account for about two-thirds of new daily cases. Maharashtra, home to India’s financial hub, Mumbai, represents about a quarter of the nation’s total.In Delhi, many hospitals had shrunk their coronavirus wards — believing the worst was past — when the second wave struck.On April 9, the city added 8,500 cases, a record in the pandemic. Four days later, it was 13,500. Four days after that, the number jumped to more than 24,000. The soaring number of cases has overwhelmed hospitals. The city is facing an acute shortage of oxygen and nearly all its intensive care beds are full, Kejriwal saidMonday. Mohammad Shahzad, a 40-year-old accountant, was one of many desperately seeking care. He developed a fever and grew breathless on the afternoon of April 15. His wife, Shazia, rushed him to the nearest hospital. It was full, but staffers checked his oxygen level: 62, dangerously low.For three hours, they went from hospital to hospital trying to get him admitted, with no luck. She took him home. At 3:30 a.m., with Shahzad struggling to breathe, she called an ambulance. When the driver arrived, he asked if Shahzad truly needed oxygen — otherwise he would save it for the most serious patients.
UK strain, double mutant variant could be behind current Covid surge in Delhi - The current wave of the Covid-19 pandemic in the national capital could have been fuelled by the UK variant as its prevalence in genomes sequenced nearly doubled from the second to the last week of March, Sujeet Singh, director of the National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), said on Friday. Data released by the NCDC says more than 400 cases of the UK strain and 76 of the Indian double mutant were found in Delhi. As many as 1,644 cases of the UK strain have been found in India, 112 cases of the South African strain, one of the Brazilian strain and 732 cases of the double mutant that emerged in India. Speaking at a webinar, 'Genome Sequencing of SARS-CoV-19', Singh said the UK variant of coronavirus is also dominant in Punjab. In Delhi, there are primarily two types of variants -- B.1.617 and the UK strain -- found in the genome sequenced samples, the NCDC director said. The B.1.617 variant of coronavirus is also known as the double mutant strain. The UK variant was found in 28% of samples in the second week of March. In the last week of the month, 50% of samples had this variant, Singh added. "If we try to co-relate, the surge we are observing in Delhi, it directly co-relates to the type of variant which we are observing," he said. So far, Singh said, 15,133 samples have been sequenced by INSACOG, a consortium formed in December last year to increase viral genomic surveillance in order to understand the spread of the coronavirus in a rapid and robust manner. This was also after the UK, South African and Brazilian strains, which have a higher rate of transmission, emerged. The link between variants and the current surge in Covid-19 cases was established by genome sequencing of some 15,135 samples. Variants were detected in 1,735 cases - around 11.5%.
India fights COVID: Doctors explain Triple mutant strain & how infectious it is - India is battling with Coronavirus and the second wave of the virus has been even more dangerous and grim. As per the reports, the triple mutant strain is now becoming a cause of concern in India. The doctors have confirmed that the triple mutation strain has been found in at least three states. What is the triple mutant strain and how is it helping in the surge of the COVID cases? To find out about this and more, Times Now speaks to a panel of doctors who explains the journey of the Triple mutant strain in India. The experts believe that the triple mutation is driving the fresh spike in the COVID cases.
Triple Mutant Covid in India: What is Covid-19 Triple Mutant Virus? COVID-19 Triple Mutation Strain - Symptoms, Risk, Precautions, Treatment - All You Need to Know India’s healthcare infrastructure stares at an abject breakdown as the second wave of the coronavirus sweep across the nation with record Covid-19 infections and all-time high daily deaths. While experts are still divided over the under-reporting of cases and deaths, the fact remains that India has unfortunately emerged as the epicentre of the worst outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic. The situation is grimmest in comparison with any nation around the globe. (Coronavirus India Live Updates) Even the US didn’t see these many cases on daily basis during its peak of the pandemic. While the medical professionals struggle to keep up with the spike, there is a new development that may worsen India’s Covid crisis. After the discovery of the Indian variant of the coronavirus, which is also known as a double mutant, researchers say that they have found a triple mutant of the virus that may completely change the way we understand the fresh surge of the Covid cases in India. So, what’s a triple mutant? For understanding this, you must know what a double mutant of the coronavirus is. In simple terms, the virus has the nature to mutate or change its structure depending on the scale of transmission. So, the more the virus spreads, the more it will mutate. Since the discovery of the novel coronavirus in China’s Wuhan, the virus has spread around the globe with unmatched ferocity. In the UK, Brazil and South Africa, the researchers spotted new variants of the virus, which have been named after the place of the discovery. 2: Now coming back home, Indian scientists have also been researching the genome sequencing of the virus. According to an Indian Express report, the Indian researchers had discovered the Indian variant of the virus back in October last year. Scientifically known as B.1.617 – the Indian variant of the coronavirus has two kinds of mutations – L452R and E484Q. 3: This mutant has been dominant in all surge states such as Maharashtra, Delhi and Chhattisgarh. Now, the scientists say that the virus has mutated further and has three types of mutations – hence the name triple mutant. It is scientifically known as B.1.618. 4: Vinod Scaria, a scientist working at the New Delhi-based Institute of Genomic and Integrative Biology (CSIR-IGIB), took to Twitter on April 20 to talk about the triple mutant, which is now being called the ‘Bengal strain’ of the coronavirus. In his Twitter thread, Scaria said that the ‘sequence’ of the mutant’s lineage were found mainly in West Bengal. While more research is being done to understand the link between the discovery of the triple mutant and the new surge in viral infections, the main point is that this mutant is not only highly transmissible, it may also escape any sort of immune barrier. B.1.618 – a new lineage of SARS-CoV-2 predominnatly found in India and characterized by a distinct set of genetic variants including E484K , a major immune escape variant. pic.twitter.com/dtfQJp2S2B
COVID-19: Triple mutation strain of virus raises concern, says report - As India recorded about three lakh cases and over 2,000 deaths in the last 24 hours due to the COVID-19 infections, a new mutation variant in the COVID-19 virus has been detected in parts of the country, becoming the cause of fresh concerns, NDTV report suggests. The triple mutation follows the double mutation which means three different COVID strains have combined to form a novel variant. States of Maharashtra, Delhi and West Bengal are believed to have cases driven by this new COVID mutant, the report mentioned. The new spikes in COVID-19 cases across the globe are driven by new variants according to some scientists. "This is a more transmissible variant. It is making lots of people sick very quickly," reported NDTV quoting Madhukar Pai, professor of epidemiology at McGill University. Professor Pai also stressed on the need to “keep tweaking the vaccine” and the “sequencing on war footing”. He also added that the delay in detecting the double mutation may have contributed to the current virus spurt. The recent mutant poses a massive challenge for India, where genome sequencing is being done for less than one percent of all cases currently, the NDTV report mentioned. The science behind mutations is that the more a virus spreads the more it replicates and the more it mutates. More studies are required to establish how infectious or deadly the triple mutation can prove to be, for now, only 10 labs across India are involved in virus genome studies, the report added. The double mutant has resulted in increased transmission rate and is seen to impact children too with more severe pathogenicity, according to scientists. Currently, the triple mutation has been classified in India as a "variant of interest" rather than a "variant of concern", according to the report. Will existing vaccines be effective against the new mutant? Two of the three variants in the triple mutation are more resistant to antibodies and not much is known yet on the effectiveness of vaccines. Scientists do believe the new variant contains the ability to escape the body's naturally acquired immunity to COVID-19, according to the report.
COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations on the rise in Alabama after easing of restrictions - India is now being ravaged by a tsunami of COVID-19 cases and deaths. This surge threatens to dwarf anything yet seen in a global pandemic that has already officially infected 145 million people and killed almost 3.1 million. Yesterday India reported a single-day world record of 314,644 new COVID-19 cases, bringing the country’s total new infections since Monday to well over 1.1 million, and an Indian record of 2,104 deaths. Both the infection and death totals are undoubtedly gross undercounts. Death and cremation statistics tabulated by journalists and health experts reveal a vast discrepancy between the actual number of fatalities and the official numbers provided by government officials. A Financial Times study of seven of India’s 718 districts concluded that the true death count could be 10 times higher than what is being officially reported. Chilling reports are emerging from across the country of crematoriums and cemeteries engulfed by corpses. In Bhopal, India’s 16th largest city, crematoriums are said to be operating at their highest levels since the 1984 Union Carbide gas leak disaster, which killed more than 2,200 people in its first hours. In the western state of Gujarat, where crematoriums have been working 24 hours nonstop, their metal supports have reportedly begun to melt. India’s ramshackle health care system is collapsing, as chronically understaffed hospitals run out of beds, oxygen, and anti-COVID 19 drugs like Remdesivir. News reports from Delhi and Mumbai, respectively the capital and financial centre, show crowds of COVID-19 victims and their relatives outside hospitals clamouring for help, only to be told none is available. Yet India’s government and ruling elite are utterly indifferent and impervious to this mass suffering and death. Prioritising corporate profits over working people’s health and lives, India’s national and state governments have adamantly refused to order a lockdown as COVID-19 infections cases rose with ever increasing speed for the past two months. In an address to the nation Tuesday evening, Prime Minister Narendra Modi proclaimed India must be “saved” not from the pandemic but from a lockdown aimed at halting the virus’s advance and saving lives! “In today’s situation, we have to save the country from lockdown,” he declared. He then went on to urge state governments to similarly forswear lockdowns. Dire and harrowing as is the current situation, all evidence suggests that infections and deaths will continue to grow exponentially for weeks, even months, to come. In the two weeks since April 8, the number of active cases in India rose more than 250 percent, from 910,000 to almost 2.3 million. This surge is being fueled by new, more infectious and lethal variants, including a “double-mutant” strain first identified in India that combines mutations in two different “variants of concern.” All but a tiny fraction of the population remain at risk of infection. Just 8.4 percent of Indians have received a first vaccine dose, and only 1.4 percent are fully inoculated.
The COVID-19 Catastrophe in India Keeps Growing -It is difficult to overstate the grip of COVID-19 on India. WhatsApp bristles with messages about this or that friend and family member with the virus, while there are angry posts about how the central government has utterly failed its citizenry. This hospital is running out of beds and that hospital has no more oxygen, while there is evasion from Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Cabinet. Thirteen months after the World Health Organization (WHO) announced that the world was in the midst of a pandemic, the Indian government looks into the headlights like a transfixed animal, unable to move. While other countries are well advanced on their vaccination programs, the Indian government sits back and watches a second wave or a third wave land heavily on the Indian people.On April 21, 2021, the country registered 315,000 cases in a 24-hour period. This is an extraordinarily high number. Bear in mind that in China, where the virus was first detected in late 2019, the total number of detected cases stands at less than 100,000. This spike has raised eyebrows: is this a new variant, or is this a result of failure to manage social interactions (including the 3 million pilgrims who gathered at this year’s Kumbh Mela) and to vaccinate enough people.At the core is the total failure of the Indian government, led by PM Modi, to take this pandemic seriously. Shortages are a normal problem in any society. But the shortages of basic medical goods in India during the pandemic have been scandalous. India has long been known as the “pharmacy of the world,” since India’s pharmaceutical industry sector has been skillful at reverse-engineering a range of generic drugs. It is the third-largest pharmaceutical industry manufacturer. India accounts for 60 percent of global vaccine production, including 90 percent of the WHO use of measles vaccine, and India has become the largest producer of pills for the U.S. market. But none of this helped during the crisis. Vaccines for COVID-19 are not available for Indians at the pace necessary. Vaccinations for Indians will not be complete before November 2022. The government’s new policy will allow vaccine makers to hike up prices, but not produce fast enough to cover needs (India’s public sector vaccine factories are sitting idle). No large-scale rapid procurement is on the cards. Nor is there enough medical oxygen, and promises to build capacity have been unfulfilled by the ruling party. India’s government has been exporting oxygen, even when it became clearthat domestic reserves were depleted (it has also exported precious Remdesivir injections). On March 25, 2020, Modi said that he would win this Mahabharat—this epic battle—against COVID-19 in 18 days. Now, more than 56 weeks after that promise, India looks more like the blood-soaked fields of Kurukshetra, where thousands lay dead, with the war not even at halftime.
Turkey reports over 49,400 new coronavirus cases - Turkey Friday reported over 49,400 new coronavirus cases, according to Health Ministry data. A total of 49,438 cases, including 3,089 symptomatic patients, were confirmed across the country, the data showed. Turkey's overall case tally is over 4.55 million, while the nationwide death toll reached 37,672, with 343 more fatalities over the past day. As many as 60,176 more patients in the country won the battle against the virus, bringing the total number of recoveries approaching 3.9 million. More than 45.3 million coronavirus tests have been conducted in Turkey thus far, with 302,091 done since Thursday. The latest figures showed that the number of COVID-19 patients in critical condition rose to 3,475. Turkey's Health Minister Fahrettin Koca said that the pandemic process was evaluated with the Provincial Health Directors of Istanbul on Friday. "There was an approximately 20% decrease in the number of cases in Istanbul," he said, adding that there is also a decrease in the number of outpatient clinics and the number of inpatients. However, the intensive care burden continues, he noted. On Jan.14, Turkey began a mass COVID-19 vaccination campaign, starting with healthcare workers along with top officials to encourage public confidence in the vaccines. According to the official figures, Turkey has so far administered over 20.9 million coronavirus vaccine jabs across the country. More than 13 million people to date have received their first doses of vaccines against the virus, while second vaccine doses were given to more than 7.9 million. In the face of rising cases and fatalities, starting last week, special measures are in effect in the country for the first two weeks of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. The weekday curfew now lasts from 7 p.m. (moved forward from 9 p.m.) to 5 a.m., during which inter-city travel is also banned, except in emergencies. Weekend curfews also continue in high-risk cities. Cafes and restaurants only provide delivery and takeout services, while wedding halls, sports centers, and game halls will remain closed until the end of Ramadan.
Africa COVID-19 death toll exceeds 119.2K - The novel coronavirus pandemic has killed 119,289 people so far across the continent, says the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention. According to the latest figures released on Friday, 4,476,121 people have contracted the disease, while 4,016,834 have recovered. The continent has managed to conduct tests on 43,116,584 specimens for the virus. South Africa with its 1.6 million infections is the worst-hit country in the continent, while Morocco registered the second-highest at 507,900 cases. Ethiopia recorded 248,000 cases, Nigeria 164,500, and Cameroon 66,000.
Asking the right questions about human genetic engineering - It's refreshing to find a reporter capable of asking probing questions about the the dangers of human genetic engineering. The central question BBC reporter Zaria Gorvett asks is whether genetic alterations due to genetic treatments can make their way into future generations. (She asks many other questions, too.) The answer researchers give is that they do not know. They believe they can reduce the likelihood over time, but could never reduce it to zero.The first question you may ask is why passing on genetic alterations through procreation would be a bad thing if those alterations were meant to cure a genetic disease or alter an unfavorable trait. The answer is that it depends on what one means by "bad thing" and "unfavorable trait."I've covered some of this issue in a previous piece entitled "Genes, synecdoche and the possibility of editing ourselves." It is important to recognize that traits that we believe are "favorable" or "unfavorable" may just be based on cultural ideas, not on how much they contribute to our survival and well-being. Then there is the more vexing problem of determining what we mean when we say "trait." There are scientific definitions. But in the end definitions are sets of words and we are simply back to where we started. Words are always imprecise and ambiguous by their very nature and mean different things to different people to which we can add different contexts and different cultures. Editing human genes above all assumes precision in understanding what one is trying to do and precision in execution of the editing. As Gorvett points out, there are plenty of problems in trying to execute gene editing with precision. As for understanding what one is trying to do through the imprecision of words, Gorvett doesn't comment.
Habitual coffee drinkers display a distinct pattern of brain functional connectivity - Coffee is the most widely consumed source of caffeine worldwide, partly due to the psychoactive effects of this methylxanthine. Interestingly, the effects of its chronic consumption on the brain’s intrinsic functional networks are still largely unknown. This study provides the first extended characterization of the effects of chronic coffee consumption on human brain networks. Subjects were recruited and divided into two groups: habitual coffee drinkers (CD) and non-coffee drinkers (NCD). Resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) was acquired in these volunteers who were also assessed regarding stress, anxiety, and depression scores. In the neuroimaging evaluation, the CD group showed decreased functional connectivity in the somatosensory and limbic networks during resting state as assessed with independent component analysis. The CD group also showed decreased functional connectivity in a network comprising subcortical and posterior brain regions associated with somatosensory, motor, and emotional processing as assessed with network-based statistics; moreover, CD displayed longer lifetime of a functional network involving subcortical regions, the visual network and the cerebellum. Importantly, all these differences were dependent on the frequency of caffeine consumption, and were reproduced after NCD drank coffee. CD showed higher stress levels than NCD, and although no other group effects were observed in this psychological assessment, increased frequency of caffeine consumption was also associated with increased anxiety in males. In conclusion, higher consumption of coffee and caffeinated products has an impact in brain functional connectivity at rest with implications in emotionality, alertness, and readiness to action.
Microplastics found to alter shape of and de-cluster human lung cells -A growing body of research has started to illuminate the widespread impacts of plastic pollution, and the downstream effects of it on the environment and human health. A new study has delved into the kind of damage microplastics can cause to human lungs, with researchers observing changes to the shape of lung cells and a slowdown in their metabolism when exposed to these tiny plastic particles.The research was carried out at Florida State University (FSU) and focuses on small fragments of plastic waste that have broken down in the environment. In the past few years, we've seen these microplastics turn up in Antarctic sea ice, near the summit of Mt Everest, in snowfall in the Arctic, and in human stool samples collected all around the world.At the same time, scientists have started to investigate how these tiny particles can impact the health of various organisms, with studies finding they can cause aneurysms in fish, impair shell selection in hermit crabs and build up in plants to stunt their growth. The World Health Organization also launched a health review into the microplastics in bottled drinking water, while in separate but related research last week, plasticizers used in BPA-like plastics were found to likely cause alarming damage to brain cells.For this latest study, the FSU team set out to investigate the health risks of inhaling and ingesting these small particles, by carrying out experiments on human lung cells in a Petri dish that were subjected to environmental concentrations of polystyrene particles. After only a few days, the scientist began to observe some strange changes take pace, finding that the plastic particles caused the cells' metabolism to slow down and hampered their proliferation and growth.“Microplastics didn’t kill the cells, but the cells were definitely not acting normal,” says study author Kerestin Goodman.The plastics also caused the lung cells to decluster, which created gaps in what would normally be a continuous, solid sheet of cells. Additionally, the team found that the particles were actually taken up by the cells to form a ring around the nucleus in the cell.“We saw this attraction to the nucleus happening after only 24 hours and so now we really want to look at why are these pieces going there and what’s happening once they get there,” says Goodman.
First of its kind study links wildfire smoke to skin disease - Wildfire smoke can trigger a host of respiratory and cardiovascular symptoms, ranging from runny nose and cough to a potentially life-threatening heart attack or stroke. A new study suggests that the dangers posed by wildfire smoke may also extend to the largest organ in the human body, and our first line of defense against outside threat: the skin. During the two weeks in November 2018 when wildfire smoke from the Camp Fire choked the San Francisco Bay Area, health clinics in San Francisco saw an uptick in the number of patients visiting with concerns of eczema, also known as atopic dermatitis, and general itch, compared to the same time of the year in 2015 and 2016, the study found. The findings suggest that even short-term exposure to hazardous air quality from wildfire smoke can be damaging to skin health. The report appears on April 21 in the journal JAMA Dermatology. "Existing research on air pollution and health outcomes has focused primarily on cardiac and respiratory health outcomes, and understandably so. But there is a gap in the research connecting air pollution and skin health," "Skin is the largest organ of the human body, and it's in constant interaction with the external environment. So, it makes sense that changes in the external environment, such as increases or decreases in air pollution, could affect our skin health." Air pollution from wildfires, which consists of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and gases, can impact both normal and eczema-prone skin in a variety of ways. These pollutants often contain chemical compounds that act like keys, allowing them to slip past the skin's outer barrier and penetrate into cells, where they can disrupt gene transcription, trigger oxidative stress or cause inflammation. Eczema, or atopic dermatitis, is a chronic condition which affects the skin's ability to serve as an effective barrier against environmental factors. Because the skin's barrier has been compromised, people with this condition are prone to flare-ups of red, itchy skin in response to irritants, and may be even more prone to harm from air pollution.
Undisclosed Ingredients in Roundup Are Lethal to Bumblebees, Study Finds -Commonly used herbicides across the U.S. contain highly toxic undisclosed "inert" ingredients that are lethal to bumblebees, according to a new study published Friday in the Journal of Applied Ecology.The study reviewed several herbicide products and found that most contained glyphosate, an ingredient best recognized from Roundup products and the most widely used herbicide in the U.S. and worldwide.While the devastating impacts of glyphosate on bee populations are more broadly recognized, the toxicity levels of inert ingredients are less understood because they are not subjected to the same mandatory testing by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)."Pesticides are manufactured and sold as formulations that contain a mixture of compounds, including one or more active ingredients and, potentially, many inert ingredients," explained the Center for Food Safety in a statement. "The inert ingredients are added to pesticides to aid in mixing and to enhance the products' ability to stick to plant leaves, among other purposes."The study found that these inert substances can be highly toxic and even block bees' breathing capacity, essentially causing them to drown. While researchers found that some of the combinations of inert ingredients had no negative impacts on the bees, one of the herbicide formulations killed 96% of the bees within 24 hours.According to the abstract of the study:Bees exhibited 94% mortality with Roundup® Ready‐To‐Use® and 30% mortality with Roundup® ProActive®, over 24 hr. Weedol® did not cause significant mortality, demonstrating that the active ingredient, glyphosate, is not the cause of the mortality. The 96% mortality caused by Roundup® No Glyphosate supports this conclusion."This important new study exposes a fatal flaw in how pesticide products are regulated here in the U.S.," saidJess Tyler, a staff scientist at the Center for Biological Diversity. "Now the question is, will the Biden administration fix this problem, or will it allow the EPA to continue its past practice of ignoring the real-world harms of pesticides?"According to the Center for Food Safety, there are currently 1,102 registered formulations that contain the active ingredient glyphosate, each with a proprietary mixture of inert ingredients. In 2017, the group filed a legal petition calling for the EPA to force companies to provide safety data on pesticide formulations that include inert ingredients."The EPA must begin requiring tests of every pesticide formulation for bee toxicity, divulge the identity of 'secret' formulation additives so scientists can study them, and prohibit application of Roundup herbicides to flowering plants when bees might be present and killed," said Bill Freese, science director at the Center for Food Safety. "Our legal petition gave the EPA a blueprint for acting on this issue of whole formulations. Now they need to take that blueprint and turn it into action, before it's too late for pollinators."
Another False Start in Africa Sold with Gates Foundation Green Revolution Myths - Since the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA) was launched in 2006, yields have barely risen, while rural poverty remains endemic, and would have increased more if not for out-migration. AGRA was started, with funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the Rockefeller Foundation, to double yields and incomes for 30 million smallholder farm households while halving food insecurity by 2020. There are no signs of significant productivity and income boosts from promoted commercial seeds and agrochemicals in AGRA’s 13 focus countries. Meanwhile, the number of undernourished in these nations increased by 30%! What went wrong? The continuing Indian farmer protests, despite the COVID-19 resurgence, highlight the problematic legacy of its Green Revolution in frustrating progress to sustainable food security. Many studies have already punctured some myths of India’s Green Revolution. Looking back, its flaws and their dire consequences should have warned policymakers of the likely disappointing results of the Green Revolution in Africa. Hagiographic accounts of the Green Revolution cite ‘high‐yielding’ and ‘fast-growing’ dwarf wheat and rice spreading through Asia, particularly India, saving lives, modernising agriculture, and ‘freeing’ labour for better off-farm employment. Many recent historical studies challenge key claims of this supposed success, including allegedly widespread yield improvements and even the number of lives actually saved by increased food production. Environmental degradation and other public health threats due to the toxic chemicals used are now widely recognized. Meanwhile, water management has become increasingly challenging and unreliable due to global warming and other factors. Half a century later, the technology fetishizing, even deifying AGRA initiative seemed oblivious of Asian lessons as if there is nothing to learn from actual experiences, research and analyses. Worse, AGRA has ignored many crucial features of India’s Green Revolution. Importantly, the post-colonial Indian government had quickly developed capacities to promote economic development. Few African countries have such ‘developmental’ capacities, let alone comparable capabilities. Their already modest government capacities were decimated from the 1980s by structural adjustment programmes demanded by international financial institutions and bilateral ‘donors’ AGRA and other African Green Revolution proponents have had 14 years, plus billions of dollars, to show that input-intensive agriculture can raise productivity, net incomes and food security. They have clearly failed.Africans — farmers, consumers and governments — have many good reasons to be wary, especially considering AGRA’s track record after a decade and a half. India’s experience and the ongoing farmer protests there should make them more so.
Climate Change Could Cause ‘Irreversible Impacts’ to Lake Ecosystems --New research shows that lake "stratification periods" – a seasonal separation of water into layers – will last longer in a warmer climate. These longer periods of stratification could have "far-reaching implications" for lake ecosystems, the paper says, and can drive toxic algal blooms, fish die-offs and increased methane emissions. The study, published in Nature Communications, finds that the average seasonal lake stratification period in the northern hemisphere could last almost two weeks longer by the end of the century, even under a low emission scenario. It finds that stratification could last over a month longer if emissions are extremely high. If stratification periods continue to lengthen, "we can expect catastrophic changes to some lake ecosystems, which may have irreversible impacts on ecological communities," the lead author of the study tells Carbon Brief. The study also finds that larger lakes will see more notable changes. For example, the North American Great Lakes, which house "irreplaceable biodiversity" and represent some of the world's largest freshwater ecosystems, are already experiencing "rapid changes" in their stratification periods, according to the study.
Americans Are Most Concerned About Drinking Polluted Water, Survey Says -Americans are most worried about water quality compared to other environmental issues, a new Gallup survey finds. The survey compared six environmental concerns: drinking water pollution; pollution in rivers, lakes andreservoirs; tropical rainforest loss; climate change; air pollution; and plant and animal species extinction. While most Americans showed concern for all of these threats, the majority were most worried about polluted drinking water (56 percent), followed by polluted rivers, lakes and reservoirs (53 percent), Gallup reported."When it comes to environmental problems, Americans remain most concerned about two that have immediate and personal potential effects," Gallup noted. "For the past 20 years, worries about water pollution – both drinking water and bodies of water — have ranked at the top of the list. The water crisis in Flint, Michigan,laid bare the dangers of contaminated drinking water and no doubt sticks in the public's minds."According to a new study, 61.4 million people in the U.S. did not drink their tap water as of 2018, Asher Rosinger, an assistant professor of biobehavioral health, anthropology and demography at Penn State, wrote in The Conversation."It's important not to blame people for distrusting what comes out of their tap, because those fears are rooted in history," Rosinger explained.Meanwhile, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency surveys found that almost 50 percent of rivers and streams and more than one-third of lakes are polluted and unfit for swimming, fishing and drinking, the Natural Resources Defense Council reported. Without action, concerns over water quality will become increasingly relevant as the demand for fresh water is expected to be one-third greater by 2050 than it is today.Gallup researchers have tracked environmental concerns among Americans since 2000, and water quality worries have consistently ranked high, Gallup noted.
US West prepares for possible 1st water shortage declaration (AP) — The man-made lakes that store water supplying millions of people in the U.S. West and Mexico are projected to shrink to historic lows in the coming months, dropping to levels that could trigger the federal government's first-ever official shortage declaration and prompt cuts in Arizona and Nevada.The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation released 24-month projections this week forecasting that less Colorado River water will cascade down from the Rocky Mountains through Lake Powell and Lake Mead and into the arid deserts of the U.S. Southwest and the Gulf of California. Water levels in the two lakes are expected to plummet low enough for the agency to declare an official shortage for the first time, threatening the supply of Colorado River water that growing cities and farms rely on.It comes as climate change means less snowpack flows into the river and its tributaries, and hotter temperatures parch soil and cause more river water to evaporate as it streams through the drought-plagued American West.The agency’s models project Lake Mead will fall below 1,075 feet (328 meters) for the first time in June 2021. That's the level that prompts a shortage declaration under agreements negotiated by seven states that rely on Colorado River water: Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming.The April projections, however, will not have binding impact. Federal officials regularly issue long-term projections but use those released each August to make decisions about how to allocate river water. If projections don't improve by then, the Bureau of Reclamation will declare a Level 1 shortage condition. The cuts would be implemented in January. Arizona, Nevada and Mexico have voluntarily given up water under a drought contingency plan for the river signed in 2019. A shortage declaration would subject the two U.S. states to their first mandatory reductions. Both rely on the Colorado River more than any other water source, and Arizona stands to lose roughly one-third of its supply.Water agency officials say they’re confident their preparation measures, including conservation and seeking out alternative sources, would allow them to withstand cuts if the drought lingers as expected."The study, while significant, is not a surprise. It reflects the impacts of the dry and warm conditions across the Colorado River Basin this year, as well as the effects of a prolonged drought that has impacted the Colorado River water supply,” officials from the Arizona Department of Water Resources and Central Arizona Project said in a joint statement.In Nevada, the agency that supplies water to most of the state has constructed “straws” to draw water from further down in Lake Mead as its levels fall. It also has created a credit system where it can bank recycled water back into the reservoir without having it count toward its allocation.
Water Wars Are Heating Up Between States -- Currently the U.S. Supreme Court has on its docket a case between Texas, New Mexico and Colorado and another one between Mississippi and Tennessee. The court has already ruled this term on cases pittingTexas against New Mexico and Florida against Georgia. . Rising temperatures require farmers to use more water to grow the same amount of crops. Prolonged and severe droughts decrease available supplies. Wildfires are burning hotter and lasting longer. Fires bake the soil, reducing forests' ability to hold water, increasing evaporation from barren land and compromising water supplies. As a longtime observer of interstate water negotiations, I see a basic problem: In some cases, more water rights exist on paper than as wet water – even before factoring in shortages caused by climate change and other stresses. The situation is most urgent in California and the Southwest, which currently face "extreme or exceptional" drought conditions. California's reservoirs are half-empty at the end of the rainy season. The Sierra snowpack sits at 60% of normal. In March 2021, federal and state agencies that oversee California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project – regional water systems that each cover hundreds of miles – issued "remarkably bleak warnings" about cutbacks to farmers' water allocations. The Colorado River Basin is mired in a drought that began in 2000. Experts disagree as to how long it could last. What's certain is that the "Law of the River" – the body of rules, regulations and laws governing the Colorado River – has allocated more water to the states than the river reliably provides. The 1922 Colorado River Compact allocated 7.5 million acre-feet (one acre-foot is roughly 325,000 gallons) to California, Nevada and Arizona, and another 7.5 million acre-feet to Utah, Wyoming, Colorado and New Mexico. A treaty with Mexico secured that country 1.5 million acre-feet, for a total of 16.5 million acre-feet. However, estimates based on tree ring analysis have determined that the actual yearly flow of the river over the last 1,200 years is roughly 14.6 million acre-feet. The inevitable train wreck has not yet happened, for two reasons. First, Lakes Mead and Powell – the two largest reservoirs on the Colorado – can hold a combined 56 million acre-feet, roughly four times the river's annual flow. But diversions and increased evaporation due to drought are reducing water levels in the reservoirs. As of Dec. 16, 2020, both lakes were less than half full. Second, the Upper Basin states – Utah, Wyoming, Colorado and New Mexico – have never used their full allotment. Now, however, they want to use more water. Wyoming has several new dams on the drawing board. So does Colorado, which is also planning a new diversion from the headwaters of the Colorado River to Denver and other cities on the Rocky Mountains' east slope.
Cheyenne NWS Warns Of 'Third Winter' - The Cheyenne Office of the National Weather Service is warning southeast Wyoming residents to brace for freezing temperatures, snow. and poor travel conditions on Monday [today]:''Good morning all, welcome to third winter! A strong cold front has moved through the region this morning and temperatures are not warming up to the unwelcomed guest. Temperatures today will remain for many near freezing today with snowfall expected this afternoon with best timing of accumulating snowfall in the evening hours. Winter weather headlines still remain slated to go in effect later this morning. For evening commuters, plan for some additional time and space as heaviest snowbands expected in that timeframe later today."
• Potent cold front will shift south across the region late tonight into Monday.
• Main impact time frame across the region 4am - 9pm Monday from light to moderate snow.
o Periods of brief heavy snow will be possible Monday morning through Monday evening. I-80 Summit likely to see strong northwest winds shifting to the northeast and gusting 30 to 40 mph Monday mid morning through the afternoon.
• Travel will become challenging during the afternoon and evening commutes.
• Snowfall rates will decrease late Monday night and end early Tuesday morning.
• Temperatures will be 15-20 degrees below normal Tuesday morning with lows varying from the single digits in the high terrain and valley floors to widespread teens across the High Plains. Update for upgrading the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning for the Interstate 80 Summit between Cheyenne and Laramie for Monday.
"Record-Shattering Cold" Hits Central US - (maps) An unusually cold front moved into the Central US early this week, spilling Arctic air throughout the Plains, Midwest, and Tennessee Valley. By Wednesday morning, "record-shattering cold" temperatures have been reported. From the Canada–US border to Texas, unseasonably cold air has been recorded. For many states in the Central US, temperatures are over 20 degrees below average. BAMWX meteorologist Kirk Hinz wrote in his latest note that cold air spans from southern Canada to near Mexico on Wednesday morning. He posted a chart of dozens of locations in the Central US that set various cold record lows (some were daily and or monthly records). "The record-breaking cold has settled in this morning across the central US, stretching from near Mexico to southern Canada…as cross-polar flow drops in Arctic levels of frost/freeze temps in the late spring season. Additional record cold pushes east into Thursday morning as well before things start to moderate into the weekend," Hinz said. “Further west it was colder yes but more records were broken today vs yesterday," Hinz said. None of this should be surprising to readers as we noted days ago that commodity traders were anticipating a cold spell that was supporting corn prices. We also noted the freezing temperatures could have a profound impact on seedling development this spring. The cold blast has likely delayed seeding across the Corn Belt as farmers wait for warmer temperatures. Planting corn in cooler climates is still possible, but colder soil can take corn kernels much longer to germinate and increases the risk of seedling death. Volatile weather for the Heartland could impact crop yields at the end of this year's growing season.
Unseasonal, record-shattering cold and snow engulf central and eastern U.S. An unusually cold front swept through the central and eastern U.S. Tuesday, April 20, 2021, bringing chilly conditions and snow all the way to Mid-South. By Wednesday morning, April 21, scores of record cold temperatures were set. The cold is expected to settle in across the eastern half of the country, with a number of record low temperatures possible Thursday, April 22, according to the National Weather Service (NWS).At least 80 million Americans were under freeze or frost alerts from the NWS as a wintry blast engulfed much of the central region Tuesday, bringing unseasonably cool temperatures and snow."The record-breaking cold has settled in this morning across the central US, stretching from near Mexico to southern Canada as cross-polar flow drops in Arctic levels of frost/freeze temps in the late spring season," wrote BAMWX meteorologist Kirk Hinz. Record cold temperatures were set by Wednesday morning. Oklahoma City saw -1.1 °C (30 °F), beating the previous daily record of 1.1 °C (34 °F) set in 1966. It was also the latest in the season that Oklahoma has recorded such a reading-- the average low this time of the year is 10 °C (51 °F).Kansas City dropped to 1.1 °C (34 °F), which was shy of a record but still below average. Dallas also shivered through below freezing levels, breaking the previous record of 3.9 °C (39 °F) set in 1918. Little Rock registered 2.2 °C (36 °F), smashing the past record of 3.9 °C (39°F) in 1983. Chicago dropped to 1.1 °C (34 °F), while Sioux City fell to -2.7 °C (27 °F) and Sioux Falls -7 °C (19 °F).The wintry blast also brought late-season snow, which first blanketed the Rockies and High Plains on Monday night. In Boulder, Colorado, around 20 to 28 cm (8 to 11 inches) of snow fell across the city overall.In Denver, up to 41 cm (16 inches) of snow fell in the mountains north and west of the city. In Rapid City, up to 0.3 m (1 foot) of snow piled up in the Black Hills.A broad 5 to 10 cm (2 to 4 inches) fell across much of Nebraska, while around 30 cm (12 inches) was recorded in Hays. Kansas City registered its biggest snow late in the season with 9 cm (3.5 inches) of snow.Areas to the east in Illinois and Indiana registered 5 to 13 cm (2 to 5 inches), while up to 18 cm (7 inches) fell in Toledo. In Cleveland, the lake-effect phenomenon boosted snowfall totals, with a number of areas recording 15 cm (6 inches) of snow.Indianapolis was covered by roughly 5 cm (2 inches) of snow-- the most it has recorded this late in the season. Meanwhile, Paducah, Kentucky, witnessed its latest snowfall ever recorded. In Louisville, record-breaking snow of 5 cm (2 inches) was also observed Pittsburgh saw snow in a two-hour period on Wednesday that was more than during the past two months. In Upstate New York and northern New England, snow and cold were also felt. Snow was seen as far south as West Virginia and Western Maryland.
Intense hailstorms sweep through Saudi Arabia - -Intense hailstorms and heavy rain lashed parts of Saudi Arabia over the past couple of days, completely covering desert sand in Hail city and Asir region.Meteorologists at the Jordan-based ArabiaWeather network said that the intense hailstorm hit Hail on Saturday afternoon, April 17, with temperatures around 28 °C (82.4 °F).According to the Saudi National Centre for Meteorology, heavy thunderstorms and hailstorms, accompanied by snowfall, also took place in several cities in Asir, including Abha, Khamis Mushait, Tanuma and Al Namas.Saudi Arabia's Civil Defense called on everyone to remain vigilant as more spring thunderstorms are expected in some regions of the Kingdom.
Widespread flooding hits Mauritius after two months' worth of rain in a day- Widespread flooding hits M - auritius after two months' worth of rain in a day Flash flooding spread through southeast Mauritius on Friday, April 16, 2021, damaging homes and leaving many people stranded on roads. Up to 408 mm (16 inches) of rain was registered in Plaisance, which is twice the average April rain for this location. Heavy rainfall began Thursday, April 15, inundating parts of the southeastern region. Local media reported damage to several homes and several people trapped in vehicles. Severe weather continued into Friday, resulting in evacuations. In Bambous Virieux, nine people were rescued from several flooded areas, while schoolchildren were saved in a bus stranded in rising waters. The Mauritius Fire and Rescue Service said they carried out more than 30 emergency operations and assistance. Other affected areas included Vieux-Grand-Port, Petit-Bel-Air, Bois-des-Amourettes, and Plaine Mgagnien. In Petit-Bel-Air, a landslide occurred completely blocked access to a road. In Plaisance, up to 408 mm (16 inches) of rain was recorded, which was twice the average April rain.
Heaviest rainfall in 40 years triggers flash flooding in Singapore - Heavy downpour caused flash flooding in Singapore on Saturday, April 17, 2021, with up to 161.4 mm (6.3 inches) of rain recorded in the western region from 04:25 to 07:25 UTC (12:25 to 15:25 LT). The amount was equivalent to 91 percent of the country's average April rain and is among the highest in 40 years. Prolonged rainfall on Saturday inundated the country, particularly the western and central areas. Since afternoon, Singapore's National Water Agency (PUB) had been issuing flood risk warnings for more than 20 areas, including Sime Darby Centre, Bukit Timah Canal (Leng Kwang Baptist Church), and Ulu Pandan Canal.While traffic remained passable in affected areas, it made difficult driving conditions for motorists. Authorities quickly responded to the locations to help drivers, as well as pedestrians. Heavy rains also caused water levels in some drains and canals to surpass 90 percent of their capacity.The heaviest amounts were recorded in the western region, where as much as 161.4 mm (6.3 inches) fell in a three-hour period. This was among the highest amounts recorded in the country in 40 years and corresponds to 91 percent of the average April rain.Singapore's meteorological service said more rain is expected over the next two weeks.
At least 14 dead, 8 165 displaced after flash floods hit Luanda, Angola –(videos) At least 14 people have died while 8 165 have been displaced after heavy rains caused flash floods in Luanda Province, Angola, on April 19, 2021. Widespread damage was also reported, with up to 1 617 homes flooded. Drainage channels blocked by rubbish reportedly worsened the flooding situation. Heavy downpours caused severe flash flooding in Luanda on April 19, resulting in fatalities and widespread damage. Preliminary figures from the provincial government show that 1 617 homes have been flooded and 16 collapsed. As many as 8 165 people are believed to have been displaced or severely affected.Officials said roads in the south were shut after a bridge over the Camorteiro River was damaged.At least 14 people lost their lives in the onslaught of the severe weather, while two others were injured. Some of the victims were electrocuted or buried under collapsed homes. Five deaths were reported in Luanda, three in Cazenga, and two each in the surrounding municipalities of Cacuaco, Viana, and Kilamba Kiaxi.This was Luanda's second major flood event in a period of four weeks.On March 16, heavy rain triggered severe flash floods in some areas in Luanda, resulting in at least four fatalities and three people missing, according to the National Civil Protection and Fire Service.Earlier, heavy rain had also affected areas of Angola further south. In Cuanza Sul Province, one person died and two were injured after downpours caused damage in Sumbe City on April 16.
Surigae rapidly intensifies into the first Super Typhoon of 2021 -- Typhoon "Surigae" rapidly intensified on April 16 and 17, 2021, into the first Super Typhoon of the year. Surigae -- known in the Philippines as Bising -- is expected to become a powerful Category 5 typhoon over the next 12 hours, without making landfall over the Philippines. However, because there are still uncertainties in its track, a westward shift in the current forecast track may result in potentially significant impacts over the eastern portions of Southern Luzon and Visayas. Surigae entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) at 03:00 UTC on April 16 and became a Category 2-equivalent typhoon over the next 12 hours. As it continued its slow WNW motion toward the Philippines, the typhoon underwent explosive intensification and strengthened to a Category 4-equivalent typhoon by 21:00 UTC on the same day. At 06:00 UTC on April 17, its center was located about 490 km (305 miles) NW of Kayangel. Its maximum 10-minute sustained winds were 185 km/h (115 mph) with gusts up to 260 km/h (160 mph) -- making it a Super Typhoon. Maximum 1-minute sustained winds were 240 km/h (150 mph), the minimum central barometric pressure 925 hPa, and the system was moving NW at 20 km/h (15 mph). Before reaching PAR, Surigae brought strong winds and waves up to 6 m (19.8 feet) to Sitaro Islands Regency, Sangihe Islands Regency, the Talaud Islands, and the northern Molucca Sea, Indonesia. Micronesia and Palau issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the island of Yap and Ngulu Atoll on April 14, and later modified it into a Tropical Storm Warning for Ngulu Atoll. Locally heavy rainfall occurred in parts of Palau and Yap for several days. On Thursday, April 15, Surigae dumped 231 mm (9.09 inches) of rain on Koror, Palau's largest city. In Palau, Surigae brought wind gusts up to 90 km/h (55 mph), causing power outages across the island. Large swells from the developing storm brought coastal flooding to Koror and Yap whose residents were advised to avoid reef lines in the north and west.
Super Typhoon "Surigae" (Bising) forces more than 100 000 to evacuate, Philippines -Typhoon "Surigae" -- known in the Philippines as Bising -- brought more than 380 mm (15 inches) of rainfall across parts of Samar over the past 24 hours, causing floods and landslides and forcing more than 109 000 people to evacuate. While the rainfall totals in some areas are nearing 1 000 mm (40 inches), the threat is still not over as the storm slowly moves along the NE coast of the country. Surigae is the first Super Typhoon of the year and the strongest April tropical cyclone on record, surpassing the 2015 Typhoon "Maysak". Its winds rapidly intensified from 145 km/h (90 mph) on Friday, April 16 to 305 km/h (190 mph) and 888 hPa on Sunday, April 18 -- in just 36 hours. According to local media reports, sporadic landslides and floods affected Catanduanes, Albay, Camarines Sur, and Sorsogon in the Bicol Region, forcing at least 109 815 people to evacuate. On Monday, April 19, the typhoon continued bringing moderate to heavy, at times intense, rains over the Bicol Region, Northern Samar, Samar, Eastern Samar, Biliran, and the northern portion of Leyte.At 09:00 UTC today, Surigae had maximum sustained winds of 195 km/h (120 mph) and gusts to 240 km/h (150 mph), according to PAGASA. Its center was located about 500 km (310 miles) east of Infanta, Quezon, slowly moving north-northwestward. Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) No. 2 remained hoisted over Catanduanes, the eastern portion of Camarines Sur, the eastern portion of Albay, and the eastern and central portions of Sorsogon, the northern portion of Samar (Santo Nino, Almagro, Tagapul-An, Calbayog City, Santa Margarita, Gandara, Matuguinao, San Jose de Buan, San Jorge, Tarangnan, Pagsanghan, Catbalogan City, Paranas, Jiabong, Motiong, Hinabangan, San Sebastian), and the northern portion of Eastern Samar. TCWS No. 1 was hoisted over the eastern portion of Cagayan, the northern and central portions of Aurora (Baler, Dipaculao, Dinalungan, Casiguran, Dilasag), the eastern portion of Quezon including Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, the rest of Camarines Sur, the rest of Albay, the rest of Sorsogon, and Masbate including Burias and Ticao Islands, the rest of Samar, the rest of Eastern Samar, Biliran, Leyte, and the northern portion of Cebu (Tabogon, Borbon, San Remigio, Bogo City, Medellin, Daanbantayan) including Bantayan and Camotes Islands. Very rough to very high seas will be experienced over the eastern seaboard of Luzon, and rough to very high seas still prevail over the northern and eastern seaboards of Eastern Visayas. Sea travel is risky for all types of seacraft. Rough to very rough seas remain over the northern and western seaboards of northern Luzon, and the eastern seaboard of Caraga. Rough seas also continue over the remaining seaboards of localities where TCWS are in effect and the eastern seaboard of Davao Oriental. Sea travel is risky for small seacrafts. Moderate to rough seas continue over the western seaboard of Central Luzon. PAGASA advised mariners of small seacraft not to venture out over these waters.
Typhoon "Surigae" (Bising) leaves 3 dead, 230 000 displaced in the Philippines - -–(videos) At least three fatalities have been reported and around 230 000 have been displaced due to the onslaught of Typhoon "Surigae"-- locally called Bising-- in the Philippines, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) reported Wednesday, April 21, 2021. The storm remains at sea but continues to threaten parts of Luzon.Surigae is the first Super Typhoon of the year and the strongest April tropical cyclone on record, surpassing the 2015 Typhoon "Maysak".According to NASA, when the storm reached Category 5 strength on April 17, "it marked the earliest date in the year that any storm in the Northern Hemisphere had reached such intensity in modern record-keeping."In a preliminary report by the NDRRMC, casualties were confirmed in Bicol, Central/Eastern Visayas, and Davao Region, with 10 others injured and one missing. Cases are still being validated, it added.Among the fatalities was a 79-year-old man, who suffered blunt head trauma after being hit by an uprooted tree. Another victim, a woman aged 47, died after sustaining major injuries due to a fallen tree. A 19-year-old girl in Hagonoy also died in the same manner.Other injured victims were due to either posts or trees felled by strong winds. Meanwhile, search and rescue operations are ongoing to locate a missing man in San Jose, Northern Samar."The person went to an island on a boat and was caught in bad weather," said NDRRMC spokesperson Mark Timbal.The storm has also ravaged the agricultural sector in Bicol and Eastern Visayas, with almost 1 million dollars or 50 million pesos worth of damage.Power was down in 63 towns and cities in Bicol and Central/Eastern Visayas. As of Wednesday, the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines and local electric cooperatives are still working on restoring power in these areas. Around 59 098 families or 229 829 people have been affected in 944 barangays in Bicol, Eastern Visayas, and Caraga regions.Out of these figures, 3 848 families or 15 813 people are being assisted in evacuation centers, while roughly 21 648 individuals are staying with relatives or friends."It’s possible that within the day or tomorrow (April 22) we’ll start sending them home," Timbal stated. While the weather has started to gradually improve, stormy weather with strong winds is expected to prevail while the storm remains at sea, threatening parts of Luzon."The typhoon has yet to leave, it’s still there and we hope that we continue to cooperate with the government. If the LGUs order us to evacuate, let’s not dilly-dally. In the evacuation center, let’s make sure to wear a mask, wash hands, sanitize and observe physical distancing."
Rare Subtropical Storm "Potira" forms off the coast of Brazil -- Subtropical Storm "Potira" formed off the coast of Brazil on Tuesday, April 21, 2021, one month ahead of the start of the North Atlantic hurricane season. It is considered a rare tropical system as it has developed too early in the season and formed in a part of the Atlantic Ocean where such systems rarely take place.According to AccuWeather, Potira can be traced back to a non-tropical disturbance that moved off Brazil's coast over the weekend, before stalling over the ocean just off the coast.As it lingered over the water, it eventually started to develop and gain some characteristics of a tropical storm. It was ultimately declared a subtropical storm by the Brazilian Navy. The storm is expected to drift south over the next couple of days while maintaining subtropical status. It will likely dissipate without direct impacts on land, except brought surf along the nearby coast. Before Potira, only 14 named tropical systems have formed in the Atlantic south of the equator, a majority of which were subtropical. Only one system has ever had a hurricane status in the South Atlantic -- Catarina, which became a Category 2 hurricane before making landfall in Brazil in March 2004. Tropical systems are rare in the southern Atlantic Ocean as the conditions south of the equator are different than they are in the north. One of the major factors is wind shear-- when this is low, it allows disturbances to form and likely develop into a hurricane. This disruptive wind is higher in the southern Atlantic compared to the north. "Having strong wind shear, it becomes very difficult to nearly impossible to have the genesis of tropical cyclones," the National Hurricane Center explained. Another factor is that the water temperature in this region is usually lower, reducing the potential for tropical storm development.
New African Rainforest Map Shows Which Areas Are Most Vulnerable to Climate Crisis - Much of the conversation surrounding the ecological benefits of tropical rainforests focuses on South America's Amazon. However, the forests of Central Africa are just as important. While the Amazon is the largest contiguous rainforest in the world, Central Africa's rainforests are the world's second largest, Nature reported. They store more carbon per hectare than the Amazon and host a higher concentration of large trees than any other continent. They are also under threat. A new study published in Nature on Wednesday maps the different forest types present in Central Africa and pinpoints which are most vulnerable to the climate crisis and human activity."Africa is forecasted to experience large and rapid climate change and population growth during the twenty-first century, which threatens the world's second largest rainforest," the study authors wrote. "Protecting and sustainably managing these African forests requires an increased understanding of their compositional heterogeneity, the environmental drivers of forest composition and their vulnerability to ongoing changes."To accomplish this goal, a France-based research team examined data concerning six million trees from more than 180,000 field plots in Cameroon, Gabon, the Central African Republic, Republic of the Congo and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, AFP reported.The team mapped the forests based on where different plants thrived."The forest area of Central Africa is far from being a homogeneous green carpet. It is home to a wide variety of forests with different characteristics, including their own particular carbon storage capacity," The researchers identified 10 types of forest, according to Nature. These include Atlantic coastal evergreens in Gabon and semi-deciduous forests at the northern edge of the Central African study area. The researchers then compared their map with projections for how the region's climate is likely to change by 2085.Because the various forest types have evolved over time to thrive in different climate niches, the rise in global temperatures might mean that some trees will be less able to adapt to a changing climate."[T]he forest margins in the north and south of the region, the Atlantic forests and most of those in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is home to more than half of Central Africa's forests, are among the most vulnerable,"
The U.S. joins forces with Norway, Britain and companies like Amazon to save the world's rainforests - The United States has teamed up with the Norwegian and British governments as well as companies like Amazon and Nestle to launch a project aimed at cutting greenhouse gas emissions and protecting the world’s tropical forests. On board so far are well-known companies from Airbnb, Bayer and Boston Consulting Group to GlaxoSmithKline, McKinsey, Nestlé, Salesforce and Unilever. Those nine companies have committed to working with the U.S., Norway and Britain to invest at least $1 billion in the plan before the year ends, with more money to come in following years. The private-meets-public effort will hopefully rally the financial support needed in the costly fight against climate change. Called the Lowering Emissions by Accelerating Forest finance (LEAF) Coalition, they will pay countries with tropical and subtropical forests for emissions reductions in an effort to curb deforestation. “The LEAF coalition is a groundbreaking example of the scale and type of collaboration that is needed to fight the climate crisis and achieve net-zero emissions globally by 2050,” said U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry. “Bringing together government and private-sector resources is a necessary step in supporting the large-scale efforts that must be mobilized to halt deforestation and begin to restore tropical and subtropical forests.” The coalition doesn’t have much time to waste in their efforts to stop deforestation, as the situation for tropical forests continues to become increasingly dire. According to LEAF, the pace of deforestation actually picked up in 2020, citing data from Global Forest Watch showing a 12 percent increase from the prior year or more than 10 million hectares of primary tropical forest— roughly the size of Switzerland. “Climate change is the greatest threat to our planet, and the LEAF coalition offers us an opportunity to bring together governments and companies to fight it,” said Jeff Bezos, Amazon founder and CEO. “In uniting behind a common cause, the countries and companies of the coalition have a chance to end deforestation by 2030.”
Climate change is making Indian monsoon seasons more chaotic -If global warming continues unchecked, summer monsoon rainfall in India will become stronger and more erratic. This is the central finding of an analysis by a team of German researchers that compared more than 30 state-of-the-art climate models from all around the world. The study predicts more extremely wet years in the future - with potentially grave consequences for more than one billion people's well-being, economy, food systems and agriculture. "We have found robust evidence for an exponential dependence: For every degree Celsius of warming, monsoon rainfalls will likely increase by about 5%," says lead author Anja Katzenberger from the Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and Ludwig-Maximilian University in Munich, Germany (LMU). "Hereby we were also able to confirm previous studies but find that global warming is increasing monsoon rainfall in India even more than previously thought. It is dominating monsoon dynamics in the 21st century." More rainfall is not necessarily a good thing for the farming sector in India and its neighboring countries. As co-author Julia Pongratz from LMU explains: "Crops need water especially in the initial growing period, but too much rainfall during other growing states can harm plants - including rice on which the majority of India's population is depending for sustenance. This makes the Indian economy and food system highly sensitive to volatile monsoon patterns." Starting in the 1950s, human-made forcings have begun to overtake slow natural changes occurring over many millennia. At first, high sun-light blocking aerosol loadings led to subdued warming and thus a decline in rainfall, but since then, from 1980 onwards, greenhouse gas-induced warming has become the deciding driver for stronger and more erratic Monsoon seasons.
Large coastal landslide at Nefyn Bay in north Wales, U.K. - A large coastal landslide took place at Nefyn Bay in north Wales, U.K. on April 19, 2021. The event was captured on camera by Amanda Stubbs who was there when it started. The landslide happened on Nefyn's coastline in Gwynedd, taking a large part of the garden on the cliff above. It's at least 40 m (131 feet) wide, according to eyewitnesses. The police secured the area and advised the public to avoid it until further notice. This area -- listed as a 'subsidence hazard zone' -- is known for its coastal erosion, with a history of large and deadly landslides, including rotational failures, flows, falls, and debris slides. Dr. Dave Petley of The Landslide Blog said the landslide is interesting for its timing during an unusually dry period for the time of the year and for its quite long runoff. "It starts as a small retrogressive slump on the margin of what becomes the main slide. This destabilizes the main mass, which fails through a strongly rotational mechanism. After failure, the mass runs across the beach as a high mobility earthflow," Petley said. "This landslide has received some attention in the UK, but strangely the most interesting element has not really received much publicity. This is that the landslide was captured on video by a woman, Amanda Stubbs, who was standing at the toe." Amanda took the video just about 180 meters (200 yards) from her holiday home. "Although I've seen the aftermath of many small landslides I have never witnessed one of this scale first hand," she said. Video courtesy Storyful "It was just frightening," Sue Cookson told the BBC. "There were a few people around and we just made sure there was nobody under the landslip because we thought there could be." The noise was quite incredible, Cookson said
Wildfire scorches buildings, leaves two people injured in Cape Town, South Africa - A large wildfire in Cape Town's Table Mountain National Park (TMNP), South Africa, left several buildings damaged, nine structures destroyed, and two firefighters injured, officials reported Sunday, April 18, 2021. As of Tuesday morning, April 20, crews said the blaze has been 'largely contained.'In a statement, the TMNP said the fire created its own wind, which further increased its speed. "The excessive amount of smoke and related updrafts made it impossible for the aerial support to slow the rate of spread."Several buildings were damaged, including the University of Cape Town, wherein a fire spread to the veld above the upper campus. Three buildings in the university were also destroyed.The Jagger Library’s main reading room, where rare African books and manuscripts were kept, was scorched and some of the "priceless" works had been gutted.Six other structures near Woolsack Drive were burned down. Mostert's Mill, a historic windmill built around 1796, has been badly damaged, according to Jermaine Carelse, spokesperson for the Cape Town Fire and Rescue Services.Around 250 firefighters were deployed on Sunday, along with four helicopters, to combat the massive flame. Two of them were injured but had been taken to the hospital."Never have I experienced a fire that spread so unpredictably fast," said a resident named Lisette Lombard. She said she was "trying to outrun the fire," and made it to safety, but her car had been "destroyed." After the initial investigation, South Africa's National Parks said a "vacated vagrant fire" may have caused the blaze. "Due to the extreme Fire Danger Index for today, which is Red with temperatures of 36 °C (96.8 °F) noted and an extremely low relative humidity of under 10 percent, the fire spread rapidly in the direction of Rhodes Memorial."As of Tuesday morning, Carelse announced that the wildfire has been "largely contained" on its third consecutive day.
Another "Explosive Eruption" Detected At St. Vincent Volcano In Eastern Caribbean - The Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA) reports a volcanic eruption has been detected at La Soufriere on the Caribbean island of St. Vincent Sunday afternoon. "At 4:49 pm on 18/04/21, there was another explosive eruption at LS. It's been 52 hours since the last explosive event. There have now been at least 30 identifiable explosive events since the start of this eruptive phase. We continue to monitor and will provide an update in this evening's advisory," CDEMA stated. SkyAlert, a Mexico-based early earthquake warning company, posted a video of the alleged eruption. It said a "high eruptive column and possible pyroclastic surges," adding that "thousands of people are still sheltered in lower-risk areas." The latest explosive eruption showed up on satellite imagery. The latest explosive eruption today on the island of Saint Vincent.#LaSoufriere pic.twitter.com/cmMlQ1UBdh St. Vincent's National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) released a statement that "ash clouds are moving towards the south and west of the island. "Alert level remains RED," NEMO warned.
‘Relentless’ climate crisis intensified in 2020, says UN report -There was a “relentless” intensification of the climate crisis in 2020, according to the UN’s World Meteorological Organization.The coronavirus pandemic made the accelerating impacts of global heating even worse for millions of people. But the temporary dip in carbon emissions due to lockdowns had no discernible impact on atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, the WMO report said.Last year was ranked as the hottest on record, in a tie with 2016 and 2019, despite the cooling effect of the cyclical natural climate phenomenon, La Niña. Without this, 2020 would most likely have been the hottest year yet. The decade 2011-20 was the hottest on record. Extreme weather events broke records across the world, from hurricanes and cyclones in the US and India, heatwaves in Australia and the Arctic, floods in large parts of Africa and Asia, and wildfires in the US. “All the key climate and impacts information in this report highlight relentless, continuing climate change, an increasing occurrence and intensification of extreme events, and severe losses and damage, affecting people, societies and economies,” said Petteri Taalas, the WMO secretary general. The WMO’s State of the Climate report comes just before a global leaders’ summit, convened by the US president, Joe Biden, and as the UK prepares to host the crucial Cop26 UN climate summit in November, at which urgent action must be agreed to meet the goals of the 2015 Paris agreement, to keep the global temperature increase to well below 2C and 1.5C if possible. In 2020, the temperature was 1.2C above pre-industrial levels. “This is the year for action,” said the UN head, António Guterres. “The climate is changing, and the impacts are already too costly for people and the planet. Countries need to submit, well ahead of Cop26, ambitious plans to cut global emissions by 45% by 2030.” The report, produced by the WMO and partners, found that cuts in food production, transport and economic activity caused by the Covid-19 pandemic exacerbated the effects of extreme weather on communities. It said the temporary fall in new carbon emissions had “no discernible impact” on atmospheric concentrations. The report also found that in 2020:
- 80% of the oceans experienced at least one marine heatwave, while record heat accumulated in the seas, which absorb 90% of heat resulting from human activities.
- Sea ice in the Arctic reached its second lowest minimum on record, while hundreds of billions of tonnes of ice were lost in Greenland and Antarctica, helping to push up sea level.
- Severe flooding hit large parts of Africa and Asia, helping trigger a locust plague in the Horn of Africa.
- Extreme drought affected many parts of South America in 2020, with the estimated farming losses near $3bn in Brazil alone, with further losses in Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay.
- The largest wildfires ever recorded burned in the US, while Australia broke heat records, including a temperature of 48.9°C in western Sydney.
- The north Atlantic hurricane season had its largest number of named storms on record with 30, and a record 12 made landfall in the US.
- Cyclone Amphan hit India and Bangladesh and was the costliest tropical cyclone on record for the north Indian Ocean, while Typhoon Goni which crossed the Philippines was one of the most intense cyclones ever to hit land.
IEA: Energy Demand and Emissions to Rebound - Global energy demand is set to rebound by 4.6% this year, led by developing economies, after falling by 4% last year, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Renewables will see the biggest gains, having already performed strongly during the pandemic (IOD Nov.10'20). But demand for fossil fuels will also grow and drive an alarming increase in energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, according to the IEA's Global Energy Review for 2021. Demand for power from renewables is set to rise by over 8% in 2021, accounting for more than half of the increase in overall electricity supply worldwide. Demand for fossil fuels will also pick up significantly in 2021, with both coal and gas set to rise above their 2019 levels. Oil demand is also undergoing a strong recovery, but is expected to stay below its 2019 peak as the aviation sector remains under pressure. Emissions Warning The IEA warned that the rebound in fossil fuel consumption will cause the world's energy-related CO2 emissions to surge by 1.5 billion tons in 2021. That would be the second-largest increase in history and would reverse most of the decline seen in 2020 as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. "Unless governments around the world move rapidly to start cutting emissions, we are likely to face an even worse situation in 2022," said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. This makes the climate summit to be hosted by US President Joe Biden this week "a critical moment to commit to clear and immediate action" ahead of the UN's November climate conference in Glasgow, Birol added (IOD Apr.16'21). Blame It on Coal The key driver of the expected rise in emissions is coal, for which demand is set to grow by 4.5% this year, surpassing its 2019 level and approaching its all-time peak from 2014, the IEA said. But among fossil fuels, natural gas is on course for the biggest rise relative to 2019 levels. Demand is set to grow by 3.2% in 2021, propelled by rising demand in Asia, the Middle East and Russia. This is expected to push global demand for gas more than 1% above 2019 levels.
Coronavirus Economic Recovery to Drive Second-Highest CO2 Emissions Jump on Record, IEA Warns --One of the silver linings of the coronavirus pandemic was the record drop in greenhouse gas emissions following national lockdowns. But that drop is set to all but reverse as economies begin to recover, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned Tuesday.Overall energy demand is expected to rise 4.6 percent this year compared to 2020 and 0.5 percent compared to 2019, according to the IEA's Global Energy Review 2021. Demand for fossil fuels is expected to jump to such an extent that emissions will rise by nearly five percent in 2021. This will reverse 80 percent of the emissions decline reported in 2020, to end emissions just 1.2 percent below 2019 emissions levels. Because the lockdown saw the biggest drop in energy demand since World War II, the projected increase in carbon dioxide emissions will still be the second-highest on record, BBC News pointed out."This is a dire warning that the economic recovery from the COVID crisis is currently anything but sustainable for our climate," IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement reported by AFP.Birol said much of that increase was being driven by the resurgence of coal use. In fact, coal demand is expected to increase by 60 percent more than all forms of renewable energy, according to the report. Overall coal demand is expected to increase by 4.5 percent in 2021. More than 80 percent of that growth is in Asia, and more than 50 percent is in China. While coal use is expected to increase in the U.S. and Europe as well, it will remain far below pre-pandemic levels. Still, global coal use is expected to rise to nearly its 2014 peak, BBC News reported. Natural gas demand is also expected to rise by 3.2 percent in 2021, to put it more than one percent above 2019 levels, according to the report. "What seems to be happening now is that we have a massive deployment of renewable energy, which is good for tackling climate change, but this is occurring alongside massive investments in coal and gas. Stimulus spending post-Covid-19 worldwide is still largely funding activities that lock us into high CO2 emissions for decades."
IEA issues dire warning on carbon emissions, says Covid recovery anything but sustainable — Energy-related carbon emissions are on track to surge by nearly 5% this year, according to the International Energy Agency, reversing most of last year's decline caused by the coronavirus pandemic. In the IEA's Global Energy Review 2021, published Tuesday, the group said global energy-related CO2 emissions were on course to rise to 33 billion metric tons this year, up 1.5 billion metric tons from 2020 levels. It would reflect the single largest increase in emissions since 2010 and the second-largest increase in history. "This is a dire warning that the economic recovery from the Covid crisis is currently anything but sustainable for our climate," Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA, said in the report. "Unless governments around the world move rapidly to start cutting emissions, we are likely to face an even worse situation in 2022," he added. The report comes at a time when policymakers are under intensifying pressure to deliver on promises made as part of the Paris Agreement. President Joe Biden will hold a virtual summit to discuss the climate emergency with dozens of world leaders this week, with global talks due to be held in Glasgow, Scotland in early November. Yet, even as politicians and business leaders publicly acknowledge the necessity of transitioning to a low-carbon society, hopes of limiting global warming — and meeting a crucial global target — are quickly deteriorating. Almost 200 countries ratified the Paris climate accord at COP21 in 2015, agreeing to limit the increase in the planet's average temperature to "well below" 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to cap the temperature rise at 1.5 degrees Celsius. It remains a key focus ahead of COP26, although some climate scientists now believe that achieving the 1.5 degrees Celsius target is already "virtually impossible." "During the Covid crisis, many people thought human beings would be much more environmentally directed, governments are making one pledge after another, and as a result we would have a cleaner energy system. But the numbers show a completely different picture," Birol told CNBC's "Street Signs Europe." "There is a growing gap between what the governments say, what we read in the papers and so on, and what is happening in real life."
Despite Tensions, U.S. and China Agree to Work Together on Climate Change - The New York Times — The United States and China have said they will fightclimate change “with the seriousness and urgency that it demands” by stepping up efforts to reduce carbon emissions, a rare demonstration of cooperation amid escalating tensions over a raft of other issues. The agreement, which included few specific commitments, was announced on Saturday night, Washington time, after President Biden’s climate envoy, John Kerry, visited China for three days of talks in which the negotiators managed not to be sidetracked by those disputes.“It’s very important for us to try to keep those other things away, because climate is a life-or-death issue in so many different parts of the world,” Mr. Kerry said in an interview on Sunday morning in Seoul, where he met with South Korean officials to discuss global warming. “What we need to do is prove we can actually get together, sit down and work on some things constructively.”The agreement comes only days before Mr. Biden is scheduled to hold a virtual climate summit with world leaders, hoping to prod countries to do more to reduce emissions and limit planetary warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. Many scientists now argue that warming must be kept below that threshold to avert catastrophic disruptions to life on the planet.China’s leader, Xi Jinping, is among those who have been invited to the virtual summit. While he has yet to publicly accept the invitation, the agreement with Washington appeared to make his participation more likely.On Friday, Mr. Xi said China remained committed to climate goals he had announced last fall, including a promise that its carbon emissions would peak before 2030. At the same time, Mr. Xi suggested that the world’s most advanced nations had a responsibility to take the lead in making deeper cuts.In what seemed to be a retort to the United States, he warned that the climate issue should not be “a bargaining chip for geopolitics” or “an excuse for trade barriers.” “This is undoubtedly a tough battle,” Mr. Xi said in a conference call with President Emmanuel Macron of France and Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, according to an account of the meetingissued by the Chinese foreign ministry.“China is sure to act on its words, and its actions are sure to produce results,” he went on. “We hope that the advanced economies will set an example in momentum for emissions reductions, and also lead the way in fulfilling commitments for climate funding.”Chinese officials and the state news media noted Mr. Kerry’s visit but markedly played it down, focusing instead on Mr. Xi’s meetings. But in the joint statement with the United States, the Chinese government pledged to do more on climate, though without detailing any specific steps.The statement said that both countries would develop “long-term strategies” to reach carbon neutrality — the point when a country emits no more carbon than it removes from the atmosphere — before the next international climate conference in November, in Glasgow. In a joint statement after the White House meetings between Mr. Biden and Mr. Suga, the United States and Japan said they intended to reach carbon neutrality by 2050 by promoting renewable energy sources, energy efficiency and storage, and through innovations in capturing and recycling carbon from the atmosphere.
Blinken says US falling behind China as global leader on climate change - Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Monday said the U.S. is falling behind China on being a global leader in confronting climate change, part of a push by the Biden administration to invest in infrastructure and technology as a national security and environmental imperative. “It's difficult to imagine the United States winning the long term strategic competition with China if we cannot lead the renewable energy revolution. Right now, We're falling behind,” Blinken said in remarks delivered at the Chesapeake Bay Foundation headquarters in Annapolis, Maryland. The Biden administration has identified China as the greatest national security challenge of the 21st century and the president has warned that China’s President Xi Jinping views autocracy as the wave of the future. Blinken warned that China’s distinction as the largest producer and exporter of renewable energy technology — like solar panels, wind turbines, batteries, electric vehicles and holding a third of renewable energy patents — threatens the stake of the U.S. in these markets. “If we don't catch up, America will miss the chance to shape the world's climate future in a way that reflects our interests and values, and we'll lose out on countless jobs for the American people,” Blinken said. Blinken’s speech served as an introduction ahead of President Biden virtually hosting 40 world leaders — including the Chinese leader – this week for a global summit on climate change, expected to take place on April 22 and 23. The secretary's remarks also fall in line with the Biden administration’s efforts to better sell to middle-class Americans the benefit of U.S. engagement on the world stage with allies and in multilateral organizations. It is an effort to counter former President Trump’s “America First” foreign policy that was critical of cooperating in global forums and often relied on bilateral, often transactional agreements to achieve policy goals. Blinken’s speech also underscored the push by the administration to invest $2 trillion domestically in infrastructure and technology, as a way to reduce the U.S.’s own greenhouse gas emissions and become a leader in the export of such products and technologies to other countries. “Every country on the planet has to do two things – reduce emissions and prepare for the unavoidable impacts of climate change. American innovation and industry can be at the forefront of both,” Blinken said, adding that by 2040, the world will face a $4.6 trillion infrastructure gap in this area. Blinken said the administration is putting the “climate crisis” at the center of its foreign policy and national security, and that the first priority is to prevent catastrophe and natural disasters, which contribute to humanitarian crises, are drivers of migration and contribute to armed conflict.
China’s Xi Agrees to Take Part in Biden’s Climate Summit - Chinese leader Xi Jinping accepted an invitation from U.S. President Joe Biden to join a summit on climate change, one area where the two countries are cooperating despite frosty ties on other issues.Xi will attend via video link on Thursday, China’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement Wednesday. China hopes the conference promotes “a global joint response to climate change,” ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said at a regular briefing in Beijing. He repeated that the Asian nation is ready to cooperate with the U.S. on the basis of mutual respect.Washington and Beijing are at odds over a range of issues, from allegations of forced labor in Xinjiang and China’s tightening political grip over Hong Kong to U.S. efforts to curb China’s role in supply chains. Xi used a speech Tuesday to the Boao Forum on Asia to challenge Washington’s global leadership, saying the world needed “justice, not hegemony.”Still, the two nations have shown they’re eager to work together to tackle climate change. A joint statement released after U.S. climate envoy John Kerry visited Shanghai last week said Washington and Beijing would supportimplementation of the Paris Agreement and promote a successful United Nations climate change conference in Glasgow this year.“China maintains an open attitude when it comes to climate cooperation and welcomes dialogue,” said Zhang Monan, senior fellow at the U.S.-Europe Institute at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, a think tank in Beijing.“However, if countries continue to pressure China or adopt confrontational and non-cooperative tactics, then China will address this with corresponding actions,” she said.Xi met German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron last week for a virtual climate conference. The European leaders welcomed his renewed commitment for China to achieve CO2 neutrality by 2060, a spokeswoman for Merkel said, and the three also discussed the coronavirus pandemic and global vaccine supplies.Washington dropped out of the Paris climate accord under the Trump administration, and China has been critical of the move. The Chinese Foreign Ministry said during Kerry’s visit that the U.S. is to blame for delaying the agreement’s progress.The U.S. is preparing to host 40 world leaders at the summit on Thursday and Friday. The virtual conference will bring together 17 countries responsible for 80% of global emissions and gross domestic product, the White House said.Biden will pledge to cut U.S. greenhouse-gas emissions by at least half by the end of the decade, the Washington Post reported, citing two people briefed on the plan.
Biden to Pledge Climate Aid for Developing Nations Next Week - The Biden administration is set to announce next week a plan for distributing billions of dollars more in aid to help developing nations adapt to global warming and embrace clean energy, according to people familiar with the matter.The Treasury Department will deliver a blueprint for the spending as President Joe Biden prepares to convene the leaders of up to 40 nations in a climate summit Thursday, said the people, who asked for anonymity before a formal announcement.The finance plan is part of a rush of actions as the administration seeks to prove to the world that the U.S. is back in the global fight against climate change. The president is also preparing to issue anexecutive order addressing the financial risks posed by climate change and to vow to cut U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in half by the end of the decade from 2005 levels. Rich countries pledged in 2009 that by 2020 they’d collectively devote $100 billion annually to climate finance but have fallen far short. As the country responsible for the lion’s share of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere today, the U.S. is under pressure to loosen its purse strings.“What America does on climate finance really will set the tone for the rest of the world,” said Joe Thwaites, an associate with the World Resources Institute’s Sustainable Finance Center.“An ambitious pledge from the U.S. is going to unlock more ambition on climate finance from other countries,” Thwaites said, citing the Group of Seven industrial countries. “The rest of the G7 knows that the pressure is on, but they’re all waiting to see what the U.S. does here.”
Biden climate summit offers empty spectacle -- President Joe Biden convened a global summit of leaders from 40 countries Thursday, in a two-day event filled with empty promises from the world’s largest producers and consumers of fossil fuels that they will change and do better—by 2030, or 2050, or 2060, or some deadline even further down the road. As for a genuine global plan to tackle the dangers of global warming and climate change, that is nowhere to be found, since the affairs of world capitalism are determined by two factors: the profit interests of giant corporations and the super-rich, and the strategic interests of rival nation-states. Both these fundamental characteristics of world capitalism prevent an event like the global summit from having any real significance.For the Biden administration, the event was a step toward the reassertion of “American leadership” on the issue of climate change, which was abandoned during the Trump administration, when US policy was subordinated to the outright denial of climate change that is the prevailing politics of the Republican Party. Trump withdrew from the Paris Climate Accord, an action which Biden has reversed, while appointing former Secretary of State John Kerry as his climate envoy to the world. The claim of global leadership was somewhat compromised by Biden’s performance Thursday morning, when he addressed the leaders of 40 countries, including China, Russia, India, Japan, Germany, France and Britain, as though he was speaking to an election rally of AFL-CIO bureaucrats in Pittsburgh. He began by declaring, “I see an opportunity to create millions of good-paying, middle-class, union jobs,” and went on to cite the supposed benefits of his policies for electrical workers, oilfield workers, coal miners, autoworkers and construction workers. Biden went from there to emphasizing the critical importance of slowing global warming, declaring that the current decade is “the decisive decade” according to scientists. “This is the decade we must make decisions that will avoid the worst consequences of a climate crisis. We must try to keep the Earth’s temperature to an increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius.” But while warning about the implications of an increase beyond 1.5 degrees, in terms of “fires, floods, droughts, heat waves, and hurricanes tearing through communities,” he echoed all previous US presidents and their counterparts worldwide in insisting on reliance on “the private sector,” i.e., the capitalist class. At times, Biden’s remarks were so incoherent that it was doubtful they could have been scripted, although he was reading from a teleprompter.
‘Yellen picks investor as Treasury climate czar, sparking backlash from the left - Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Monday faced intense criticism from the left after naming a former private equity investor to be the department's first-ever climate counselor, a high-profile position that will be key to the agency's sweeping efforts to combat climate change. Yellen's pick, John Morton, is returning to government after most recently serving as a partner at the climate-focused investment firm Pollination. He earlier worked in the Obama White House as senior director for energy and climate change at the National Security Council, and as a private equity investor with Global Environment Fund. In an announcement, Treasury said Morton will lead the department's new "climate hub," which Yellen is establishing to coordinate climate-focused work across the agency, including at divisions in charge of domestic finance, international affairs and tax policy. He will report directly to Yellen. “Climate change presents new challenges and opportunities for the U.S. economy," Yellen said Monday. "The steep consequences of our actions demand that the Treasury Department make climate change a top priority." But news of Yellen’s pick immediately riled environmental activists who want the Biden administration to take a harder line with Wall Street firms that finance fossil fuel producers. Many of them had been urging Treasury to hire former Treasury deputy secretary and Federal Reserve governor Sarah Bloom Raskin, who has been calling for greater regulation of financial firms’ climate-related activities. “Stopping U.S. banks, insurers and asset managers from fueling climate risk will require decisive use of every available regulatory tool and the experience to outmaneuver Wall Street pushback,” said Jason Opeña Disterhoft, climate and energy senior campaigner with Rainforest Action Network. “By choosing someone with no regulatory track record, the Biden administration looks to have stumbled at the first hurdle." Jeff Hauser, who leads the watchdog group Revolving Door Project, said that Morton has "moved between public service and private business, including private equity, several times."“As a serial revolver without financial regulatory experience, John Morton is not fit for this job," Hauser said.
Haaland asks for funding to fight climate change, aid Native Americans ~ In her first congressional hearing as the leader of the Interior Department, Secretary Deb Haaland fielded questions from members of a U.S. House spending panel Tuesday on the major conservation and energy initiatives that President Joe Biden has outlined. She was noncommittal about some contentious and high-profile items of deep interest to Western states, like the pause on new oil and gas leases and the permanent location of the Bureau of Land Management headquarters. But Haaland did urge the subcommittee to send her department robust spending for next fiscal year and longer-term jobs programs.Increased funding for Interior in fiscal 2022, which begins Oct. 1, could help combat climate change, speed a transition to clean energy and provide resources to Native American communities, Haaland told the House Interior-Environment Appropriations Subcommittee.Congress could also take a first step toward funding a Civilian Climate Corps and other Interior-related programs that are part of the jobs and infrastructure proposal the administration released earlier this month. While federal agencies have at points throughout their history engaged in only nominal consultation with tribes, Biden has committed to meaningful tribal consultation on issues that affect them, she said.The administration’s initial budget request called for $17.4 billion in spending for Interior programs, a 16% increase for the department over the last year of President Donald Trump’s administration. A more detailed request is expected later this spring.In the absence of specific line items, Republicans on the panel raised concerns about two of the administration’s major initiatives at the department: Its goal of conserving 30 percent of U.S. land and water by 2030 and its pause of new leases for oil and gas development on federal lands.“The 30 by 30 rule, that scares the life out of us in the West,” Rep. Chris Stewart, R-Utah, told Haaland, adding that he assumed most of the acreage needed to reach that goal would come from Western states.Subcommittee ranking Republican David Joyce, of Ohio, said he worried the 30 by 30 plan would block natural resource extraction and “sustainable, responsible use” on large swaths of land throughout the country, and that the acreage goal would mean a focus on vast Western lands and dissuade people in other parts of the country from doing their part for conservation.
How a Physicist Became a Climate Truth Teller - Barack Obama is one of many who have declared an “epistemological crisis,” in which our society is losing its handle on something called truth. Thus an interesting experiment will be his and other Democrats’ response to a book by Steven Koonin, who was chief scientist of the Obama Energy Department. Mr. Koonin argues not against current climate science but that what the media and politicians and activists say about climate science has drifted so far out of touch with the actual science as to be absurdly, demonstrably false.Mr. Koonin is a Brooklyn-born math whiz and theoretical physicist, a product of New York’s selective Stuyvesant High School. He would teach at Caltech for nearly three decades, serving as provost in charge of setting the scientific agenda for one of the country’s premier scientific institutions. Along the way he opened himself to the world beyond the lab.From deeply examining the world’s energy system, he also became convinced that the real climate crisis was a crisis of political and scientific candor. He went to his boss and said, “John, the world isn’t going to be able to reduce emissions enough to make much difference.” His thoughts seem to be governed by an all-embracing realism. Hence the book coming out next month, “Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn’t, and Why It Matters.”“I’ve been building models and watching others build models for 45 years,” he says. Climate models “are not to the standard you would trust your life to or even your trillions of dollars to.” Younger scientists in particular lose sight of the difference between reality and simulation:For the record, Mr. Koonin agrees that the world has warmed by 1 degree Celsius since 1900 and will warm by another degree this century, placing him near the middle of the consensus. Neither he nor most economic studies have seen anything in the offing that would justify the rapid and wholesale abandoning of fossil fuels, even if China, India, Brazil, Indonesia and others could be dissuaded from pursuing prosperity.The public now believes CO2 is something that can be turned up and down, but about 40% of the CO2 emitted a century ago remains in the atmosphere. Any warming it causes emerges slowly, so any benefit of reducing emissions would be small and distant. Everything Mr. Koonin and others see in the science suggests a slow, modest effect, not a runaway warming. If they’re wrong, we don’t have tools to apply yet anyway. Decades from now, we might have carbon capture—removing CO2 directly from the atmosphere at a manageable cost.Even John Kerry, Joe Biden’s climate czar, recently admitted that Mr. Biden’s “net-zero” climate plan will have zero effect on the climate if developing countries don’t go along (and they have little incentive to do so). Mr. Koonin hopes that “a graceful out for everybody” will be to see the impulse for global climate regulation “morph into much more impactful local environmental action: smog, plastic, green jobs. Forget the global aspect of this.”
The Recycling Industry in America Is Broken - Reduce. Reuse. Recycle. According to The National Museum of American History, this popular slogan, with its iconic three arrows forming a triangle, embodied a national call to action to save the environment in the 1970s. According to Forbes, the Three R's sustainability catch-phrase, and the recycling cause it bolstered, remain synonymous with the U.S. environmental movement itself. There's only one problem: despite being touted as one of the most important personal actions that individuals can take to help the planet, "recycling" – as currently carried out in the U.S. – doesn't work and doesn't help. Turns out, there is a vast divide between the misleading, popular notion of recycling as a "solution" to the American overconsumption problem and the darker reality of recycling as a failing business model. When it was first introduced, recycling likely had altruistic motivations, Forbes reported. However, the system that emerged was never equipped to handle high volumes. Unfortunately, as consumption increased, so too did promotion of recycling as a solution. The system "[gave] manufacturers of disposable items a way to essentially market overconsumption as environmentalism," Forbes reported. Then and now, "American consumers assuage any guilt they might feel about consuming mass quantities of unnecessary, disposable goods by dutifully tossing those items into their recycling bins and hauling them out to the curb each week.". In fact, consumerism was at an all-time high in January 2020 before the pandemic hit, Trading Economics reported.Turns out, consumers were misled – by the oil and gas industry. News reports from September 2020 revealed how the plastic industry-funded ads in the 1980s that heralded recycling as a panacea to our growing waste problem. These makers of virgin plastics were the biggest proponents and financial sponsors of plastic recycling programs because they created the illusion of a sustainable, closed-cycle while actually promoting the continued use of raw materials for new single-use plastics. Generations of well-meaning Americans since the 1970's and '80's – believing these communications masterminds – have dutifully used-then-recycled plastics and other materials. They trusted that their discards would be reborn as new goods instead of ending up in oceans and landfills. Starting Jan. 1, 2018, China banned imports of most scrap materials because shipments were too contaminated, The Times reported; the country no longer wanted to be the "world's garbage dump."As a result, the U.S. and other Western nations who had relied on China to offload their recyclables saw a"mounting crisis" of paper and plastic waste building up in ports and recycling facilities, The Times reported. The Western nations began sending recyclable waste to other Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam, Indonesia, India and Malaysia. These countries often lacked the infrastructure to handle recyclables, so a lot of the waste ended up incinerated or landfilled.
Reps. Ocasio-Cortez and Bush Introduce Green New Deal for Cities --In the latest of a flurry of proposed Green New Deal legislation, Reps. Cori Bush and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Monday introduced the Green New Deal for Cities Act of 2021, a $1 trillion plan to "tackle the environmental injustices that are making us and our children sick, costing us our homes, and destroying our planet."If approved, the bill would provide federal funding for state, local, tribal, and territorial governments to respond to the climate crisis, while creating hundreds of thousands of jobs in communities disproportionately affected by economic inequality."St. Louis and communities across the nation need the Green New Deal for Cities," Bush (D-Mo.) said in a statement introducing the bill. The St. Louis native added that Black children in her city "are 2.4 times more likely than white children to test positive for lead in their blood, and are 10 times more likely to visit the emergency room for asthma each year than white children.""Black neighborhoods host the majority of the city's air pollution sources," Bush continued. "And there is a nuclear waste site—the West Lake Landfill, which is a catastrophe-in-progress." "This legislation would make sure every city, town, county, and tribe can have a federally funded Green New Deal," she added. "This is a $1 trillion investment to tackle the environmental injustices that are making us and our children sick, costing us our homes, and destroying our planet."
Controversial chicken waste biorefinery moves forward in Sussex County - A unanimous vote from the Sussex County Council pushed forward plans to expand the Perdue AgriRecycle facility near Seaford, Del., for the purpose of converting chicken industry waste products into energy. The council voted 5-0 Tuesday for Cambridge-based Bioenergy Devco’s conditional use application for the newly renamed Bioenergy Innovation Center in Seaford, which project proponents say will produce sustainable energy and healthy soil products from organics that sometimes go to waste. The project will add an anaerobic digester, which breaks down matter using microorganisms at industrial scale, to the existing 220-acre composting facility. The operation will be permitted to process 200,000 metric tons of chicken waste products — like heads, offal and feathers — per year. Capturing the gas from the byproducts in the digester and reselling it as a value-added product keeps the gas out of the air, where it would act as a greenhouse gas contributing to climate change, project managers said. Previously, the project garnered positive votes from the Sussex County Planning and Zoning Commission despite robust opposition from citizen commenters. "Not only will the facility reduce land application and poultry organics from going into landfills, but it will also turn these organics into renewable natural gas and digestate an organic, a virtually odorless soil amendment." Those opposed to the project cited concerns about the dangers of natural gas, increased local truck traffic, communication from the company, and creating reliance on energy produced from an industry with a checkered environmental track record. Additionally, detractors opposed the siting of the expansion in an area of the county zoned for agricultural and residential uses. "The scheme ... (poses) significant risks to public health, safety and environmental justice concerns," states a release from the nonprofit advocacy organization Food and Water Watch.
Cargill, Love's announce Nebraska venture to produce renewable diesel (Reuters) - Cargill and Love’s Family of Companies announced Tuesday they have entered into a joint venture to produce and market renewable diesel in the United States.The companies will construct a new production plant in Hastings, Nebraska, that will produce about 80 million gallons annually of renewable diesel, a cleaner fuel which can be made from natural fats, vegetable oils, and greases that can power vehicles with diesel engines.The venture will be the only project of its kind to both produce and market renewable diesel all the way to the retail pump, the companies said in the announcement. Many tools and strategies for disease control commonly found on swine farms today are direct results of the Awards for Advancing Research in Respiratory Disease (AWARRD).A growing number of companies, including oil refiners, have announced investments in renewable diesel over the last year. Companies can earn credits from producing the fuel through state and federal clean fuel incentive programs.As part of the joint venture, Cargill, based in Minnesota, will provide tallow as a feedstock. Once the fuel is produced, Musket, the commodity trading and logistics arm for Oklahoma City-based Love’s, will transport and market the product.The venture, called Heartwell Renewables, will employ at least 50 full-time positions in Hastings, the announcement said. The plant is due to start operating in spring of 2023.“The Heartwell Renewables facility presents an exciting combination of agriculture and renewable energy that will create new jobs and continue to grow our state’s economy,” said Nebraska Governor Pete Ricketts in the announcement. (Reporting by Stephanie Kelly. Editing by Mark Potter.)
Refiner Valero: U.S. Renewable Diesel Stocks Are Running Low - The U.S. renewable diesel market is hot—so hot, in fact, that one of the feedstocks for the highly profitable renewable fuel is running low, according to Valero.That feedstock—used cooking oil, or rather, “waste oil”—is considered less carbon intense than vegetable oil when it comes to making renewable diesel. And this makes it a highly profitable enterprise for those companies hoping to earn trading credits under California’s low-carbon fuel standard (LCFS).In fact, those incentives, which include a $1/gallon blender’s credit, are the main catalyst for the commodity.At the start of the pandemic, when gasoline demand in the United States tanked, several refiners took that time of slack demand to retool their refineries to process used cooking oil—instead of crude oil. At a time when demand was soft, those sizable federal and state incentives looked pretty enticing. Of course, many of those projects could take years.Even without those projects coming online, that feedstock is in such high demand that the United States is “close to being tapped out right now”, Martin Parish, senior vice president of alternative fuels at Valero said on its Q1 earnings call on Thursday, according to Reuters.Compared to crude oil, the used cooking oil market is small, but that doesn’t mean it is without impact. An estimated 21.4 million barrels of renewable diesel are used in the United States each year. And if all the renewable diesel refinery projects announced last year come online as planned, it could mean a removal of 300,000 bpd of would-be crude oil feedstock from the market, according to an August 2020 Reuters analysis.Valero is one of those companies looking to expand its renewable diesel operations—in St. Charles, Louisiana. It hopes to beef up its production capacity by 400 million gallons per year—but the shortage of cooking oil means it will have to rely on other, less LCFSy feedstocks such as animal tallow and distillers corn oil to produce its renewable diesel.
DOE Pledges $162MM to Decarbonize Cars and Trucks - The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has announced two new funding opportunities, totaling more than $162 million, “to improve efficiency and reduce carbon emissions among cars, trucks, and off-road vehicles”.The programs comprise the SuperTruck 3 funding opportunity and the Low Greenhouse Gas Vehicle Technologies (LGGVT) funding opportunity. As part of the SuperTruck 3 prize, the DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy’s (EERE) Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO) and Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office are partnering to offer up to $100 million in funding over four years. This funding will go towards pioneering electrified medium- and heavy-duty trucks and freight system concepts that achieve higher efficiency and lower emissions, the DOE outlined. EERE initially launched the SuperTruck initiatives in 2009, which aimed to improve heavy-duty truck freight efficiency by 50 percent, while the follow-up SuperTruck 2 in 2016 sought to double fuel efficiency for 18-wheeler trucks.As part of the LGGVT funding opportunity, VTO is offering up to $62.75 million for innovative solutions to reduce emissions and increase efficiencies for on- and off-road vehicles. The funding will support the expansion of electric vehicle (EV) infrastructure and charging, along with community-level EV demonstrations that can lower barriers to EV adoption, the DOE highlighted.“Getting to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 means we must aggressively cut down the largest source of emissions; the transportation sector,” Secretary of Energy Jennifer M. Granholm said in a DOE statement.“DOE’s first two SuperTruck initiatives led the biggest truck makers in the American semi market to take massive leaps in fuel efficiency. This new funding triples down on that progress with a push towards electrifying trucks of all sizes, along with efforts to expand EV charging access and develop low-emission car engines,” Granholm added.
The new U.S. plan to rival China and end cornering of market in rare earth metals - The United States has made previous attempts to reemerge as a dominant player in a rare earths supply chain that is responsible for some of the most important materials involved in electric vehicle production, battery making, renewable energy systems and technology manufacturing. Under the Biden administration, the effort is receiving renewed focus, with massive investments planned in climate change technology and a hard line being taken on geopolitical rivalries and the national security threat posed by China.In 2019, China was responsible for 80% of rare earths imports, according to the U.S. Geological Survey, although exports fell last year in part due to Covid-19.President Biden's sweeping $2 trillion infrastructure legislation seeks to remake the power and transportation markets in the U.S. and rebuild the country's semiconductor industry. It follows Biden signing an executive order in February designed to review gaps in the domestic supply chains for rare earths, medical devices, chips and other key resources, and in March the Department of Energy announcing a $30 million initiative that will tap into researching and securing the U.S. domestic supply chain for rare earths and other important minerals in battery-making such as cobalt and lithium. "It's absolutely correct there is a cornering of the market with lithium and other rare earths," Biden climate envoy John Kerry recently said at a CNBC Evolve summit on the future of energy innovation. But efforts in the recent past to rival China in the rare earths market and rebuild a domestic industry have been stymied."It's technically possible to t ry and rebuild the entire supply chain because we once had it," says Jane Nakano, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic International Studies' Energy Security and Climate Change Program. "It's not that we're not experienced, it's not that we have no idea of what the domestic supply chain may look like," Nakano said, but she added that business, environmental and political factors may make the effort difficult to achieve, especially over a short-time frame. Success is dependent on whether the U.S. can quickly scale up processing and refining after the mining of the resources, and compete on cost with a magnet-making and processing market that's heavily dominated by China. Once extracted from mines, rare earths are shipped to separation facilities, where they are separated from other minerals. Then rare earths are individually separated into oxides, metals and finally magnets that are used in everything from missiles to wind turbines, medical devices, power tools, cellphones and motors for hybrid and electric vehicles. Domestic efforts to extract rare earths are taking place in states including Wyoming, Texas and California, but the recent past provides cautionary tales, such as Molycorp, which reopened the longstanding Mountain Pass mine in California in the early 2000s, only to go bankrupt in 2015.
Take the Train: France Moves to Ban Short-Haul Domestic Flights - Jerri-Lynn Scofield --The French National Assembly voted to ban short-haul domestic flights on routes where the train journey takes less than two and a half hours. Connecting services are not affected.Reuters reported:The measure is part of a broader climate bill that aims to cut French carbon emissions by 40% in 2030 from 1990 levels, though activists accuse President Emmanuel Macron of watering down earlier promises in the draft legislation.The National Assembly vote is the first of three necessary steps before the ban may become law. According to Reuters:Saturday night’s vote in the National Assembly was the first. The bill goes to the Senate before a third and final vote in the lower house, where Macron’s ruling party and allies dominate.The slowdown in air travel due to the COVID-19 pandemic made it easier to press for this measure at this time, as did the French government’s recent investment of further bail-out funds in Air France. Per the BBC:Saturday’s vote came days after the French government more than doubled its stake in Air France. The government had previously offered €7bn ($8.3bn, £6bn) in loans to help the airline weather the pandemic, although France’s economy minister said at the timethe funding was dependent on the airline scrapping some of its domestic flights.In a curiously snippy piece, Treehugger pointed out that there’s a bit less here than meets the eye,It’s making news all over the world as an effort to reduce carbon emissions, but there is actually less to this than it seems.
- President Emmanuel Macron’s Climate Convention citizens panel recommended a four-hour limit (PDF in French) but that got watered down, leaving the biggest and most popular flights, like Paris to Nice or Toulouse, in place. This has outraged the environmentalists and the Green Party. However, the unions and the socialists are angered by the ban because of the “disproportionate human cost” and job losses in the aviation industry. (In French politics, everyone is always outraged.)
- The French government already forced Air France to abandon short routes in its recent $8.3 billion bailout deal; the ban really is designed to keep Air France’s low-cost competitors from grabbing the routes. As Leo Murray, the co-founder of climate charity Possible, noted in an op-ed for The Guardian: “The partly state-owned airline complained that the ban should apply to other airlines too.” A cynic might point out that the government is protecting its investment.
EU carbon price hits record high above 45 euros a tonne - The price of benchmark European Union carbon permits rose to a record high of 45 euros ($54) a tonne on Tuesday, increasing costs for polluters. The contract for EU Allowances (EUAs) was up nearly 2% at 45.12 euros a tonne by 1429 GMT, its highest since the EU’s Emissions Trading System (ETS) was launched in 2005. New podcast: Full Comment with Anthony Furey will go where other media outlets won't Tracker dslogo The EU ETS is the 27-country bloc’s main tool to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change. It forces power plants, factories and airlines running European flights to buy a permit for each tonne of CO2 they emit, effectively putting a price on pollution. In the power sector, it has helped to make coal plants uneconomic, compared with less-polluting gas plants or renewables. Last week the European Commission said emissions regulated by the carbon market fell by 13.3% last year, as pandemic restrictions stifled economic activity and grounded flights. However, success in cutting emissions has taken time and carbon prices dropped to nearly zero in 2007 during the financial crisis. They have been rising sharply since the European Union agreed last year to toughen its climate targets, which will increase demand for permits to emit. The European Commission is expected to publish details in June on how the carbon market will be reformed to help achieve the tougher target, which is expected to lead to greater demand and scarcity of carbon allowances.
US power sector is halfway to zero carbon emissions - New research from the Department of Energy's Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) analyzes historical trends to examine how much progress the power sector has already made in reducing emissions. The study, "Halfway to Zero: Progress towards a Carbon-Free Power Sector," looks back at the 2005 Annual Energy Outlook from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the U.S. government's official agency for data collection and analysis."Business-as-usual projections saw annual carbon dioxide emissions rising from 2,400 to 3,000 million metric tons (MMT) from 2005 to 2020," said Berkeley Lab scientist Ryan Wiser, lead author of the study. "But actual 2020 emissions fell to only 1,450 MMT. The U.S. cut power sector emissions by 52% below projected levels - we are now 'halfway to zero.'"According to the study, relative to projected values, total consumer electricity costs were 18% lower; costs to human health and the climate were 92% and 52% lower, respectively; and the number of jobs in electricity generation was 29% higher.From technological advances to policy, the study identified the main drivers from the last 15 years that contributed to lower carbon emissions in the U.S. power sector. Total demand for electricity was almost exactly the same in 2020 as it was in 2005, and was 24% lower than projected fifteen years earlier. "This drop in demand was due in part to sectoral and economic changes, but also to greater energy efficiency driven by policies and technology advancement," said Wiser.The researchers found that wind and solar power dramatically outperformed expectations, delivering 13 times more generation in 2020 than projected. This is also a result of technology development and state and federal policies, as prices plummeted for new wind and solar technologies. In addition, nuclear generation has largely held steady, tracking the past projections and helping to ensure no backsliding in carbon emission.The study found that switching from coal to natural gas for power generation played a big role in lowering carbon emissions. Natural gas generation grew rapidly, driven by the shale gas revolution and low fuel prices.The researchers also found that changes over the last 15 years had numerous other economic and environmental benefits. For example, total electric bills for consumers were 18% lower in 2020 than previously projected by EIA, for a total savings of $86 billion per year. According to the study, reduced sulfur and nitrogen emissions led to lower health impacts, such as respiratory disease, with premature deaths falling from 38,000 to 3,100 per year. "Compared to the business-as-usual projection, not only did the nation significantly reduce its carbon footprint, but it did so while also reducing total energy bills and health burdens,"
'World's most powerful tidal turbine' gears up for operation- A tidal turbine weighing 680 metric tons and dubbed "the world's most powerful" has been launched from the Port of Dundee in Scotland, marking another significant step forward in the development of the U.K.'s marine energy sector. In an announcement Thursday, Scottish firm Orbital Marine Power said its 2 megawatt (MW) turbine, the Orbital O2, would now be towed to the Orkney Islands, an archipelago north of mainland Scotland, for commissioning.The plan is for the turbine to then be connected to the Orkney-based European Marine Energy Centre, where it will become operational.Construction work on the O2, which has a length of 74 meters and uses 10 meter blades, began in the second half of 2019. Orbital Marine Power said its launch marked "the completion of the turbine build."According to the firm, the turbine is able to produce enough electricity to meet the needs of approximately 2,000 U.K. homes each year. Orbital's CEO, Andrew Scott, described the launch as a "huge milestone" for his company.Orbital Marine Power's announcement comes a day after Mocean Energy, which is also based in Scotland, said its wave energy prototype, Blue X, would undertake sea trials at an EMEC test site next month before being deployed at another site in the summer. The machine weighs 38 metric tons and is 20 meters long.With miles and miles of coastline, the U.K. is home to a number of projects and initiatives related to marine energy.Earlier this month, for example, it was announced that a year-long research project focusing on the potential of tidal, wave and floating wind technologyhad secured support from Marine-i, a program centered around innovation in areas such as marine energy.The project will be based on the Isles of Scilly, an archipelago located off the southwest coast of England, and led by Isles of Scilly Community Venture, Planet A Energy and Waves4Power.And back in March, the Port of London Authority gave the go ahead for trials of tidal energy technology on a section of the River Thames, a move which could eventually help to decarbonize operations connected to the river.While interest in marine-based energy systems appears to be growing, the current footprint of the industry and its technologies remains small.Recent figures from Ocean Energy Europe show that only 260 kilowatts (kW) of tidal stream capacity was added in Europe last year, while just 200 kW of wave energy was installed.By contrast, 2020 saw 14.7 gigawatts (GW) of wind energy capacity installed in Europe, according to industry body WindEurope.
Firm plans line to bring future wind energy ashore in NJ (AP) — A Massachusetts company plans to build a high-voltage line to bring electricity from a future New Jersey offshore wind farm onto land, and connect it to the power grid. Anbaric, of Wakefield, Massachusetts, has already obtained several permits from New Jersey environmental regulators for what it calls its Boardwalk Power Link project. It is a 1,200 megawatt transmission line that would connect to an as-yet unspecified wind farm off the New Jersey coast. The line would come ashore in Keyport, in northern Monmouth County on the Raritan Bay, and would run underground along highways for nearly 21 miles (33 kilometers) into Middlesex County where it would connect to a new substation. That substation would be located next to an existing high-capacity power plant in South Brunswick, where power from the offshore wind would be connected to the electrical grid. “As offshore wind began to progress in New Jersey, it became extremely clear that there were going to be opportunities to bring all this energy onshore,” said Janice Fuller, the company’s mid-Atlantic president. It would not connect to the state’s first offshore wind development, Ocean Wind, a 98-turbine wind farm planned for an area off Atlantic City. Rather, it will be available for other wind farms, which are considered highly likely to be built in New Jersey, which has set ambitious goals for wind power development. Gov. Phil Murphy has committed New Jersey to developing at least 7,500 megawatts of wind energy by 2035, enough to power more than 3.2 million homes.
By supporting community solar farms, Ohio will help family farmers, and their neighbors - Like many in Ohio, my family is weighing our desires for independence and financial stability as we chart the future of our small farm. We want a property plan that puts our land to good use and turns a reasonable amount of work into a stable income. Building a community solar farm provides the future we’re hoping for, but families like mine can’t do so without a change in Ohio law.To see why, it’s helpful to understand what it would take to create a community solar installation on my family’s property. An energy supplier would lease a section of our farm for 20 years (a little less than the lifetime of a solar panel). Beyond our written agreement and an occasional meeting, they would handle the entire process, from the paperwork, to the installation, to the final removal of the panels. In fact, the lease would include a legal guarantee that they would remove the solar equipment when it expired, so our land could be returned to whatever use we saw fit. At a going rate of $800 to $1,000 per acre per year in other states, leasing property for a community solar installation is a financially sound choice for our family. There is one problem, though: Ohio utilities law does not allow other homeowners to buy the power produced by a solar farm on our land. Under current state law, my parents can only produce as much power as they consume. Those who want to reap the benefits of clean, cheap, local power, but don’t have the means to produce it themselves, are usually out of luck. This legal state of affairs hurts not only the farmers and others who host community solar, but also the individuals and businesses who benefit from the power source, as well as the electricians who work to bring the solar farms to life. The restrictions on solar are even worse when compared to the lack of production controls on other energy sources. Many landowners enjoy the benefits of unlimited consumption and sale of oil and gas from their land. In contrast, current law limits solar installations based on past electric bills in a way that discourages people from becoming truly energy independent. If a homeowner wants to change their heating source to rely on only the electricity they generate themselves, they cannot install the solar panels in advance. Ironically, one solar provider suggested increasing our allowed solar capacity by installing air conditioning and wasting electricity! That ridiculous logic is a sign of a system in need of reform.
DOE launches 100-day grid security push as Biden ends Trump ban on some Chinese-made equipment -The U.S. Department of Energy and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) on Tuesday announced a 100-day plan to address "persistent and sophisticated threats" to the nation's electric grid, including a "voluntary industry effort" to deploy technologies to secure industrial control system (ICS) and operational technology (OT). DOE also announced it is revoking a prohibition order issued in 2020, that blocked utilities supplying critical defense facilities from procuring some types of bulk power system equipment from China. And, the agency has issued a new Request for Information (RFI) seeking recommendations for securing U.S. energy system supply chains. The RFI will focus on "preventing exploitation and attacks by foreign threats," according to DOE, and is part of a larger, coordinated effort to secure energy sector supply chains. Electric utilities say they welcome the White House's new cybersecurity push to secure ICS technology, "given the sophisticated and constantly changing threats." "We view cybersecurity as a shared responsibility between industry and government," Tom Kuhn, president of the Edison Electric Institute (EEI), said in a statement. The group represents investor-owned utilities. EEI and its member companies coordinate on security issues through the CEO-led Electricity Subsector Coordinating Council (ESCC), said Kuhn. "The ICS effort announced today is complementary to other ESCC initiatives already underway, and shows the industry's willingness to collaborate on new, creative approaches that enhance security," he said. "The White House is leading the effort — in close coordination with the private sector and its partners." Those partners include DOE's Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response (CESER). Outlining its security initiative, DOE said that over the next 100 days CESER "will continue to advance technologies and systems that will provide cyber visibility, detection, and response capabilities for industrial control systems of electric utilities."
China could save $1.6 trillion by replacing coal with clean energy, report finds - China could stand to benefit economically if it can successfully replace coal with renewable energy, according to a report by financial analytics company TransitionZero. The study looked at the costs, or savings, that the Chinese government would incur if it replaced its existing coal-fired power plants with zero-carbon alternatives. "What we found is China could save $1.6 trillion by doing that," said Matthew Gray, co-CEO of TransitionZero, a London-based firm. "There's a huge economic incentive for China to get off coal," he told CNBC's "Capital Connection" on Thursday. China last year pledged to bring its total greenhouse emissions to a peak by 2030 and achieve net-zero emissions by 2060. Gray said that will require an "orderly transition" — but that's "something that we're not seeing at the moment," he pointed out. Coal accounted for 56.8% of China's energy consumption in 2020, according to official national data. The country is also the world's biggest emitter of carbon dioxide. Research firm Rhodium Group said China's greenhouse gas emissions increased 1.7% in 2020 to reach 14,400 million metric tons. "We estimate that is the equivalent of the total annual emissions of nearly 180 of the world's lowest-emitting countries combined," analysts wrote in the note. They're going to have to shut down those coal-fired power plants by 2040 or shortly thereafter, and that is going to be a huge challenge. Gray said the first thing China needs to do is stop investing in new coal-fired power plants, noting that they are "long-life assets" that may still be in operation in 40 years' time. "Anything built now — if China is to meet its net-zero target — will need to be shut down prematurely and therefore be a stranded assets risk problem," he said. According to data from the Global Energy Monitor (GEM), there are 1,082 coal-fired power plants operating in China. Additionally, 92 plants are under construction and 135 are in the pre-construction phase.
Mississippi Power to retire 976 MW of fossil fuels by 2027 - Mississippi Power plans to retire the majority of its fossil steam fleet, the utility announced in a Friday filing of its 2021 integrated resource plan (IRP). The retirements would shut down 976 MW of its nearly 1.5 GW of gas and coal steam units. The Mississippi Public Service Commission identified that 950 MW of coal- or gas-fired steam turbines were uneconomic and not needed for grid reliability and asked the utility to shutter the units by the end of 2027. The utility would retain more efficient fossil fuel resources that were more economic to dispatch over gas or coal steam units in 2020. Natural gas combined-cycle units became a larger portion of the utility's energy production amid lower gas prices and declining load growth in recent years, the utility wrote in its IRP. This was the first time Mississippi Power modeled solar and battery options into its models as part of a generic expansion plan, the utility wrote, and it included high electrification of transportation as well as high adoption of demand-side management and distributed energy resource alternatives into its modeling scenarios. The utility modeled scenarios that assumed increasing prices on greenhouse gas emissions and a carbon dioxide intensity scenario that would impose a shrinking annual cap on emissions. But the utility's modeling of 10 scenarios assuming increased electrification, higher levels of DER, and some form of carbon reduction policy would apply to resource changes in 2031 and beyond, while its more immediate plans would retire nearly 1 GW of extra fossil fuel resources by the end of 2027. Mississippi Power said the fossil steam units it plans to retire at Plant Watson, Greene County and Plant Daniel represented 24% of utility generation in 2020. The staggered retirements would allow the Southern Co. subsidiary to address the local economic and employment impacts of retiring the units, as the Mississippi Public Service Commission directed in a Dec. 17, 2020, order. The utility would keep Watson Unit 5, a gas steam unit with 516 MW in generation capacity. The 2021 IRP scenarios concluded it had a higher economic value than the Daniel coal unit, "primarily due to continued declines in long-term natural gas price forecasts."
Mine workers union endorses Biden energy policies in exchange for job training — The United Mine Workers of America leadership announced Monday they support President Joe Biden’s green energy policies in exchange for a robust transition strategy, a move the union hopes its membership will support as a way to transition toward new jobs. Fearing further regulations from the Biden administration, the UMWA is pleading with Congress to invest in the industry by allocating funds to training and “good paying jobs” with benefits in renewable energy sectors for miners dislocated by the changes. Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.V., the chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, is joining the union for its announcement Monday morning. “We’re trying to, first of all, insert ourselves to the extent that we can in this conversation because our people, a lot of coal miners in this country, their families have suffered already some traumatic losses,” UMWA President Cecil Roberts told NBC. For many miners, it’s going to be a hard sell. “It’s not fair to take somebody’s job away from them and push them into another career,” Ryan Cottrell, a miner and union member in Harrison County, West Virginia, said in a phone interview. “I love my job. I wouldn’t trade it for anything in this world. And I hope coal is continued to be mined for years after I’m gone.” Progressives in Congress are putting pressure on Biden, the self-proclaimed “most pro-union president,” and he faces a tough decision between preserving jobs in industries like coal and shifting to cleaner power sources. The coal industry has faced a steep decline for decades, with nearly half of mining jobs since 2012 gone as the tug of war between environmental activists and fossil fuel companies continues to play out. The union is also asking Congress and the Biden administration to invest in technologies that would make coal cleaner in order to help preserve the industry, such as carbon capture — something that remains controversial with environmental groups who say it leads to leakages and contamination and would rather invest funds in renewable energy sources. “Don’t fix something that isn’t broke, make it better. Instead of ‘let’s fix the problem with the coal,’ it’s like, they don’t want to do that. They want to kill it. They just want to wipe us out – well when they’re doing that, they’re causing states to go under and West Virginia is one of them,” said Cottrell, who has been working the midnight shift in coal mines for the last decade so he can spend time with his wife and two children. Cottrell says the Environmental Protection Agency's regulations, like those enacted under the Obama administration, affect miners more than people realize. “I’m scared I’m going to lose my job every day — somebody taking my job from me, for the company not being able to produce coal safely and efficiently due to the regulations.” In his $2 trillion infrastructure plan, Biden proposed a sweeping investment in green energy such as wind, solar and other renewable energy projects. In an effort to help fossil fuel workers transition to new jobs, the plan also includes billions of dollars to employ dislocated utility workers in the coal, oil and gas industries. Today, coal is still significant to the economy in coal-producing states like West Virginia, and pays on average $75,000 – well above the median income. “I have no doubt that President Biden wants to create good paying union jobs, but currently, the jobs that are being discussed here are not good paying union jobs. They’re a fraction of what a coal miner makes,”
Mine Workers’ Leader Wants To Save Last Coal Jobs As Biden Tackles Climate - United Mine Workers of America President Cecil Roberts said he’s been hearing the term “just transition” tossed around for more than 20 years as part of the long-running, nearly Sisyphean discussion about climate change, clean energy, and coal country. Simply put: he’s not a fan. “I ask anybody who has been uttering those two words over the last 30 years — point to one, one ‘just transition’ in this country,” Roberts challenged. “And you can’t.” The West Virginia native is the UMWA’s second-longest serving leader, behind only the legendary John L. Lewis. But unlike Lewis, who served during the coal industry and union’s height of power and influence, Roberts’ tenure coincides with an epic decline in coal production and employment in the U.S., and now, what could be the closing chapter for coal. Coal employment has dropped by more than half in the past decade. More than 60 mining companies have declared bankruptcy, coal-fired power power plants are closing ahead of schedule, and the number of hourly coal workers is now at the lowest point since the government began tracking such numbers. Now, a Democratic president who has organized labor’s support is pressing ahead with an ambitious clean energy agenda to combat climate change. At a “climate change summit” this week, timed to coincide with Earth Day, President Joe Biden is expected to announce a goal to cut greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2030. Roberts fears that could bring an end to the remaining 44,100 or so coal mining jobs. The administration has pledged to invest in coal communities as it reduces fossil fuel dependence. “We have to act on climate change,” White House Climate Advisor Gina McCarthy pledged in a March interview with the Ohio Valley ReSource, “but we also have to act to make sure that there’s no worker and no community left behind.” Roberts is not persuaded. “It’s one thing to want these things to happen, but it’s another thing for those things to materialize,” he said. “People in Appalachia believe that there’ll be the second coming of the Lord before they see a ‘just transition,’” he said. So Roberts is using the leverage he has — including a close relationship with his fellow West Virginian, Sen. Joe Manchin — in order to sway Biden’s policies to allow room for coal and win support for coal communities. In a joint appearance with Manchin on Monday, Roberts laid out broad principles that he thinks should be included in the administration’s climate and energy policy, including robust support for the controversial technology known as carbon capture and sequestration, targeted tax credits and loans for coal country jobs, and additional support for displaced miners.
India may build new coal plants due to low cost despite climate change - India may build new coal-fired power plants as they generate the cheapest power, according to a draft electricity policy document seen by Reuters, despite growing calls from environmentalists to deter use of coal.Coal’s contribution to electricity generation in India fell for the second straight year in 2020, marking a departure from decades of growth in coal-fired power. Still, the fuel accounts for nearly three-fourths of India’s annual power output. Environmental activists have long rallied against India adding new coal-fired capacity. Solar and wind energy prices are falling to record lows, which would help the world's third-largest greenhouse gas emitter cut emissions.U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry this month said India was “getting the job done on climate, pushing the curve,” as he began talks with government leaders aimed at cutting carbon emissions faster to slow global warming.But a 28-page February draft of the National Electricity Policy (NEP) 2021 - which has not been made public - showed India may add new coal-fired capacity, though it recommended tighter technology standards to reduce pollution."While India is committed to add more capacity through non-fossil sources of generation, coal-based generation capacity may still be required to be added in the country as it continues to be the cheapest source of generation," the NEP draft read.
Utility and fossil fuel interests still ahead in Ohio under House Bill 6 - Utilities, fossil fuel interests and nuclear plants are still reaping advantages over clean energy in Ohio, despite last month’s repeal of part of the law at the heart of an alleged $60 million corruption scandal.A federal complaint released last July alleged an unlawful conspiracy to elect lawmakers who would favor Rep. Larry Householder as House speaker, secure passage of House Bill 6 and defend it against a referendum. More than $56 million went from FirstEnergy, FirstEnergy Service Company or FirstEnergy Solutions (now Energy Harbor) directly or indirectly to Generation Now, the primary dark money group at thecenter of the alleged scheme, or to other entities alleged to have played roles, according to a court filing by FirstEnergy in March.Calls for a full repeal of HB 6 began last summer, with clean energy advocates also pushing for action to redress legislative moves that had hampered industry growth for at least seven years.A surgical repeal of HB 6’s nuclear subsidies and utility decoupling charges was finally signed into law on March 31, eight months after the federal government released its criminal complaint. Energy Harbor (formerly FirstEnergy Solutions) indicated last December that it might want an option to decline the money in any case.“It’s clear we haven’t seen the end of the ongoing HB 6 investigation,” said Miranda Leppla, vice president of energy policy for the Ohio Environmental Council Action Fund. As she sees it, “the rest of HB 6 was only able to pass because of the corrupt actions identified by the FBI. There is no excuse for leaving the remaining pieces of HB 6 on the books — especially when they are making our air quality worse, putting clean energy jobs at risk, and causing our electric bills to rise.”It’s unclear what the partial repeal’s impact, if any, will be on Energy Harbor, now separated from FirstEnergy. Company spokespeople did not respond to requests for comment for this story.The piecemeal repeal may be “destined to backfire if the goal is to take the heat off state lawmakers,” suggested Dave Anderson, policy and communications director for the Energy and Policy Institute. Soon, “you’ll basically have a full year where every time there’s a new revelation about the details of the corruption scandal, the question is going to be why they didn’t repeal it outright.”For the time being, HB 6 continues to tip the scales in favor of utilities and fossil fuel interests. To the extent that it and other pending bills might suppress growth in Ohio’s clean energy sector, nuclear plants arguably benefit as well.
Ohio anti-fracking activist joins Greta Thunberg to decry fossil fuel subsidies at Earth Day congressional hearing - cleveland.com --A self-described “fracking refugee” from Belmont County, Ohio on Thursday joined Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg on Earth Day to urge a congressional subcommittee to abandon subsidies to the fossil fuel industry when Congress passes its next infrastructure bill.Jill Antares Hunkler told the House Committee on Oversight and Reform’s environment subcommittee that she was forced from her home at the headwaters of the historically pristine Captina Creek Watershed by oil and gas infrastructure and pollution from a compressor station, 78 fracking wells, a transfer station and an interstate pipeline with numerous gathering pipelines, all within a five-mile radius of her home.She said a 2018 fracking well blowout in Belmont County caused one of the largest methane leaks in U.S. history, forcing area residents to evacuate from their homes, and a brine truck accident contaminated Barnesville’s reservoir with radioactive materials.“The negative health impacts we experienced were too much to bear,” she testified. “First, we noticed the odors and had nose, eye, and throat irritation, as well as headaches. The symptoms worsened over time with nausea, vertigo, rashes, mental confusion, disorientation, numbness, and body aches and pains. True wealth is good health, and our health and happiness suffered as long as we stayed in the hollow.”Since the fracking boom began, she said Belmont and other eastern Ohio counties that produce natural gas have lost more than 6,500 jobs instead of gaining them, and the region’s population has declined. “That’s why there’s little reason to believe that cutting subsidies for the fossil fuel industry will result in lost jobs,” said Hunkler. “And the local oil and gas workers are often the least valued assets of the industry. They are exploited, given the worst, most dangerous, and most often are the least-paid contract jobs without health care and retirement benefits.”
Ohio Official: State Might Have 100,000 Abandoned Oil and Gas Wells - Ohio passed legislation in 2018 that increased funds dedicated to capping oil and natural gas wells with no identifiable owners or that are bankrupt. Under this legislation, the percentage of the oil and natural gas production severance tax for the Orphan Well Program rose from 14 to 30 percent, allowing for 200 wells to be capped each year.But an investigation by Checks and Balances Project (C&BP) shows this doesn’t begin to address the enormous scale of the problem in Ohio. Orphan wells can contaminate ground water and leak methane, a pollutant that remains in the earth’s atmosphere for up to 12 years, trapping heat at a rate 25 times greater than carbon dioxide.“The numbers are so big that it’s not going to be done in my lifetime, my kids’ lifetimes, maybe even my grandkids’ lifetimes,” says Gene Chini, Ohio’s Orphan Wells program manager, in an exclusive interview with C&BP. Chini estimates there could be 100,000 abandoned oil and gas wells in his state.The first well dug to produce oil in Ohio was in Trumbull County’s Mecca Township in 1859, giving the state a 35-year head start over Texas, where the first well struck oil in 1894. The first commercial natural gas well in Ohio began producing in 1884.According to a recent analysis, Texas’s Permian Basin could soon have 20,000 orphan oil and gas wells. But Texas isn’t ground zero for abandoned wells. The crown could belong to Ohio.“We may get more than 200 capped this year. I don’t know,” says Chini. But those 200 will be replaced with an equal number of newly found orphan wells this year.“We’re getting numerous calls weekly. We got 3 today” about previously unknown abandoned wells. “They tend to find us. We take the worst and do them first.”At the current rate, it could take Ohio 500 years to cap all of its orphan wells. And that’s not including the state’s share of the Marcellus and Utica shale gas and oil deposits, which are still in production. “The regulatory structure in Ohio has just not kept up with the industry, which has been developing at rocket speed,” Ted Auch, PhD. of FracTracker told C&BP. When it comes to capping the number of abandoned wells in the state, “the rate at which Ohio has been plugging wells has been declining at a rate of 5% per year since the 90s.”On April 18, benchmark price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil was $62.85. The national average price for natural gaswas $9.52 per thousand cubic feet. But Ohio’s severance taxes provide funds to cap polluting orphan wells at a level far below what is needed. For oil, the production severance tax is 10 cents per barrel. For natural gas, the tax is 3 cents per thousand cubic feet. Ernst & Young produced an analysis for the Business Roundtable on Ohio’s severance taxes in 2014. It ranked the state’s taxes near the bottom of producing states, buttressing former Gov. John Kasich’s proposals for a modest increase. But the tax proposals failed in both 2015 and 2017.An Orphan Wells Program spokesperson told Together with Farmers that from 2013-2017, Ohio Dept. of Natural Resources spent just over $1 million, plugging a handful of abandoned wells each year mainly on an emergency basis. In 2017, the numbers rose to $6 million to cap 83 wells. Last year, Chini hired a Texas firm to conduct a magnetic survey using a drone of a property near Findlay in northwestern Ohio. The test found 83 abandoned wells. “We couldn’t see them,” said Chini.
Pennsylvania Operator Acquiring Three Small Appalachian Natural Gas Producers - American Energy Partners Inc. said this week that it would acquire three oil and natural gas producers in western Pennsylvania and West Virginia in a deal valued at nearly $11 million. The Allentown, PA-based company, traded over the counter, said it would acquire 100% of the stock and units of the three undisclosed companies. “This transaction furthers our commitment to acquiring steady cash flowing businesses while enhancing our ability to develop alternative green energy opportunities with the vast amount of acreage included in the package,” said CEO Brad Domitrovitsch. The deal includes 467 wells that are producing 1.25 Bcfe/d and midstream assets scattered across 695 acres of 100%-owned surface and mineral rights. There are no drilling commitments or obligations for the properties. American Energy is the parent company of Hydration Company of PA LLC, American Energy Solutions LLC, Gilbert Oil and Gas, Hickman Geological Consulting LLC and Oilfield Basics LLC. The subsidiaries are largely engaged in water treatment for the industrial and energy sectors. Gilbert is a producer with assets in western Pennsylvania, including more than 1,000 acres of shallow rights in an area of Marcellus and Utica shale development.The company expects to integrate its current upstream and midstream operations into the acquisition, which would boost net reserves by 19 Bcfe. Management also said the transaction is expected to increase annual revenue by $2 million beginning in 3Q2021. The deal is scheduled to close in July.
Energy firm pleads guilty, is fined $2 million in truck emissions tampering scheme - – An energy firm that services the natural gas fields in central and western Pennsylvania has been fined $2 million for 31 violations of the Clean Air Act.U.S. Middle District Judge Matthew W. Brann on Tuesday levied the fine after Rockwater Northeast admitted to the violations. He also imposed a special assessment of $12,500.In a related matter, the government and Select Energy Services Inc., which purchased Rockwater in 2017 in a stock deal, have entered a three-year non-prosecution agreement.Select, a Texas company with more than 2,000 employees that provides water solutions to the oil and gas industry, has paid $2.3 million to the government and agreed to three compliance audits.“We take matters like this very seriously,” said Adam R. Law, the corporate officer who represented Select and Rockwater at the court proceeding.The scheme that led to the Clean Air Act violations involved removing hardware that controlled emissions on 31 heavy-duty diesel trucks used to transport water and wastewater in the Marcellus Shale natural gas fields.Six individuals who worked for or did business with the Rockwater operation based in Canonsburg previously pleaded guilty to charges related to the tampering that occurred between Aug. 1, 2013, and June 30, 2014. They admitted:
- Replacing hardware control devices with exhaust tubing or “straight pipes” that do not limit emissions.
- Removing the hardware control devices from their compartments and then re-welding the entry point to create a false appearance they remained installed.
An estimated 26 tons of nitrous oxide plus particulate matter were released into the air from the trucks with tamper exhaust systems, assistant U.S. Attorney Philip J. Caraballo-Garrison said. The economic benefit to Rockwater through such things as fuel savings, reduced maintenance costs and less downtime was $250,000, he said. All 31 trucks have been taken out of service, Law said. The $250,000 was included in the $2 million fine that was part of a plea agreement. Rockwater was facing a maximum fine of $15.5 million.The company also admitted being responsible for arranging with third parties to issue certificates stating the trucks with disabled onboard diagnostic systems met state inspection standards.
International analysis finds Marcellus best in carbon dioxide intensity --A new report by Rystad Energy, one of the world's leading energy analysis firms, gives strong marks to the Marcellus and Utica shale producers when it comes to a measure of ESG, environmental, social and governance practices so important these days. Appalachia has the lowest carbon dioxide intensities of any shale basins in the United States with 7.1 kilograms of carbon dioxide per barrel of oil in 2020, according to an analysis by Rystad Energy. It's slightly ahead of another shale basin, the Haynesville in Louisiana and Texas, which had 7.5 kilograms per barrel of oil. That puts further detail on an emphasis point by many in the local natural gas industry, that not only are the Marcellus shale producers cleaner in that respect than the coal industry but it's also cleaner in CO2 emissions than any other basin in the United States. The Permian Basin, one of the competitors to the Marcellus, scores a 10.9 and the Bakken in North Dakota, twice that level. And it's likely to get even better in the years ahead. “Such a level of CO2 intensity performance brings Appalachia to the top quartile among all oil and gas fields globally," said Rystad Energy Senior Analyst Emily McCain in a prepared statement. "As the basin becomes more mature and modern ESG best practices are implemented, we anticipate Appalachia to improve further in its CO2 intensity dimension in the next three to four years." Why does the Marcellus and Utica fare so well on this metric? One big reason is that, unlike other shale plays, Marcellus and Utica producers don't flare natural gas into the open air, a practice that increases emissions. Another, pointed out by Rystad, is that it has built infrastructure and made improvements, like using electric frac fleets, that have reduced diesel and other emissions.
Shale gas drillers to keep 2021 capex flat under investor focus, analysts say - Industry observers are expecting shale gas producers to stick to their promise to keep capital spending restrained as investors continue to keep an eye on the sector's performance. Shale gas drillers have had a history of matching their capital spending to the strength of gas prices, but often when they exceeded guidance, their stock performance dropped as investors walked away, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data. As the shale gas sector set a combined capital guidance of approximately $5.39 billion for 2021, a decrease from the $6.04 billion actually spent by producers in 2020, the shale gas space saw its stock performance slightly recover, but still remain below the levels achieved in 2016 to 2018. Moody's in an April 14 research note projected that exploration and production companies will hold their total capital spending flat during the year as they aim to pay down debt, enhance free cash flow and boost shareholder returns — factors which have long since been in the center of investors' focus, especially after the sweeping capex cuts that occurred in the first half of 2020 due to a sharp drop in oil prices and the impacts of COVID-19. Among the shale gas drillers, Pennsylvania dry gas producer Cabot Oil & Gas Corp. on its fourth-quarter earnings calls has already laid out plans to return more free cash to its shareholders during the year. Meanwhile, fellow Appalachian gas giant EQT Corp. has said that it will keep its 2021 spending flat but will prioritize paying off debt to regain its investment-grade credit rating before sending any cash to shareholders. "Sustained underinvestment together with a gradual recovery in operating cash flow and energy demand will keep oil and gas production volume growth low in 2021," Moody's analyst Jonathan Teitel said. Production is forecast to increase merely 3% and investment-grade companies are anticipated to see slightly higher growth compared with speculative-grade producers, Teitel said. "Rig and frac activity levels continue to remain stable as most [exploration and production companies] practice what they preach regarding capital discipline as completion activity for our coverage group is back to nearly 70 after reaching 100+ in early [February] versus as much as 150 early last year. Our data continues to also show fewer rigs now running for our group at 174 recently versus 188 rigs early this year," Dingmann said. The Marcellus/Utica shale regions are expected to only see an additional one to two rigs, while the Haynesville Shale could see around two to three more rigs by year-end, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a separate April 8 note.
Mass. utilities: Gas plant would allow for more renewables - Massachusetts activists are worried that a natural gas power plant proposed for a largely residential suburb would create new carbon emissions and increase pollution in an already sensitive area. “This is not serving the ratepayers well,” said Sarah Dooling, executive director of the Massachusetts Climate Action Network, which opposes the project. “And it’s not serving the broader climate movement that really is focused on cleaning and greening the grid.” Project participants, however, argue that the new plant will help them meet their legal obligation to ensure enough power is available to the grid, a move that frees them up to add more renewable energy to their portfolios. The argument comes as Massachusetts is receiving widespread praise for the sweeping climate bill Gov. Charlie Baker recently signed into law. At a moment when the state is accelerating its efforts to go carbon neutral by 2050, the debate over this plant highlights broader questions about what role, if any, fossil fuels should play in Massachusetts’ clean energy future. The proposed new plant would be a so-called “peaker,” intended to operate only in times of highest demand, estimated at less than 250 hours per year. The plant would run mostly on natural gas, but would also be able to burn oil as a backup. The plans include a 90-foot smokestack and a natural gas compressor, and the design is described in public filings as “highly efficient.” It would serve a group of municipal power companies — small, local utilities that provide power and sometimes gas to no more than a few towns. Plans for the 55-megawatt facility are being spearheaded by the Massachusetts Municipal Wholesale Electric Company, a nonprofit that helps municipal utilities procure power supply and advocates for their interests. Fourteen of the state’s 41 municipal light departments have signed on to the new plant, though two have since filed requests to be released from their agreements. Opponents have several objections. The intended site for the plant, a parcel of city-owned land in the community of Peabody, is already home to a 60-megawatt power plant, so the new facility could essentially double the pollution potential on the land. The site is also adjacent to a river, close to a public school, and just a few blocks from a neighborhood defined as an environmental justice community. Even running rarely, opponents noted, the plant would add particulate matter to the air and likely increase ozone concentrations in an area that already receives failing grades for ozone pollution from the American Lung Association. The plant is expected to produce about 7,000 tons of carbon emissions each year, roughly equivalent to the pollution emitted by 1,400 average cars. “There’s just so many things that don’t feel right about it,” said Julie Smith-Galvin, a town councilor in Wakefield who is the municipal liaison to the town’s light and gas department. And, in the end, the idea of building a facility that would create any more carbon emissions at this point in the climate crisis just doesn’t sit well with many advocates.
Gas Is the New Coal With Risk of $100 Billion in Stranded Assets – - Natural gas is falling out of favor with emissions-wary investors and utilities at a quicker pace than coal did, catching some power generators unaware and potentially leaving them stuck with billions of dollars of assets they can’t sell. Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. are among the banks that strengthened their financing restrictions on thermal coal under pressure from shareholders wanting to avoid the fuel, and the expectation is that gas is next. Executives at some western European companies say they’re already struggling to sell gas-fired facilities. “If you find out somebody who is ready to offer a good price for our gas plants in Spain, then we are ready to sell,” said Jose Ignacio Sanchez Galan, chief executive officer at Iberdrola SA in Spain. “We are not finding people.” The cost of renewables has dropped dramatically during the past decade, making gas-fired stations less competitive. Phasing out gas in power generation is just a first step. Cutting back use of the fuel in heating, transport and industry would wreak more potential damage. Europe wants to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, which is at odds with plans to build numerous infrastructure projects, like pipelines and terminals. If these are built but no longer needed, there’s a potential 87 billion-euro ($104 billion) stranded-asset risk, according to calculations by Global Energy Monitor. In Italy there are plans to build 14 gigawatts of new gas capacity mostly to replace coal, according to Carbon Tracker Initiative Ltd. Europe’s biggest utility, Enel SpA, is a global renewables supermajor. Still, about 40% of the company’s 88 gigawatts of installed capacity is made up of coal, oil and gas, but the Italian company is planning to reduce coal generation by 74% in 2022. Although a gas phase-out is also coming down the track, it has plans to build more capacity. “The important thing is that the direction is clear, it will not change,’’ Salvatore Bernabei, head of global power generation at Enel said in an interview. “Everyone should understand that we cannot change the world in one day.’’Coal has been slow and difficult to phase out in countries where mining provides thousands of jobs. Gas will be quicker because it doesn’t have the same tradition attached, and renewables are now a cost-effective alternative, according to Carbon Tracker. “Gas will be a repeat of coal but quicker,” said Catharina Hillenbrand von der Neyen, head of company research at the London-based firm. “When we look at power generation, you can see that going really, really quickly.” This is already happening in Britain, where it’s unlikely any further large-scale gas plants will be built without technologies that cut emissions – such as carbon capture. SSE Plc, which trades on the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index, said it can’t see a future for new gas stations that don’t incorporate carbon capture or hydrogen. Electricite de France SA will no longer operate any fossil fuel-fired power generation in Britain after it announced the sale of its last gas-fired power station to private equity firm EIG Global Energy Partners LLC. Historically the involvement of private equity is to squeeze the asset to extract all remaining value.
60-plus Groups Urge Biden Administration to Suspend Mountain Valley Pipeline Permits | NRDC – More than 60 conservation and environmental groups are calling on top Biden officials to suspend permits and approvals by the previous Trump administration for the controversial Mountain Valley Pipeline, contending it poses a grave threat to clean water, local communities, the environment and the climate. If the administration follows the groups’ recommendations, it could result in blocking construction of the pipeline. “MVP’s construction impacts to date have already caused irreparable harm to landscapes and clean water—West Virginia and Virginia have assessed MVP more than $2 million in penalties for more than 350 environmental violations, mostly related to improper erosion control and stormwater management, and there are allegations of even more,” the groups write in a letter sent today. “Yet there is much more high-risk construction still planned. “All this devastation is completely unnecessary,” they further write. “MVP is one of the last mega-gas pipelines promoted as part of the shale gas boom in our nation—a remnant of a dirty and destructive fossil fuel history that should be left in the past. There has never been any genuine documented need for this pipeline.” The groups urge Biden officials take “aggressive action” to implement an executive order President Biden signed on his first day in office to protect public health and the environment, restore science and tackle climate change. Because the Mountain Valley Pipeline project is inconsistent with the order’s goals, the groups argue, an environmental impact statement and other environmental approvals by the previous administration should be reversed and a pending application for a clean water permit should be closely reviewed. The groups note that the project still has to construct several hundred waterbody crossings; 74 percent of its proposed route would pass through more than 225 miles of high landslide risk terrain. That raises concern of more environmental damage. In addition, if completed and operated, the Mountain Valley Pipeline would add nearly 90 million metric tons of carbon pollution per year to the atmosphere—equivalent to the emissions from 23 U.S. coal plants, or more than 19 million passenger vehicles driven every year. A blog on the MVP by Amy Mall at NRDC (Natural Resources Defense Council) is here: https://www.nrdc.org/experts/amy-mall/biden-can-protect-communities-halt-mountain-valley-pipeline The full text of the letter follows:
Protester who blocked pipeline work in Giles County is charged, jailed -A pipeline protester again briefly blocked work on the Mountain Valley Pipeline early Tuesday, this time in Newport. Alice Elliott, 27, of Ypsilanti, Michigan, spent about four hours suspended from a construction crane that had been left parked overnight in the pipeline’s right of way, while a crowd of supporters gathered nearby. When authorities arrived shortly after 7 a.m., Elliott was positioned about 25 feet off the ground, said Corinne Geller, a spokeswoman for the Virginia State Police. She slipped her arms into a “sleeping dragon” device, which kept her secured to the boom, Geller said. A team of specially trained officers dismantled the lock-box and brought her safely to the ground. Elliott was charged with unauthorized use of the crane, damaging a vehicle, obstructing justice and interfering with the property rights of Mountain Valley. She was being held in lieu of a $1,000 bond Tuesday afternoon, according to Appalachians Against Pipelines. “By locking myself to this equipment, I’m stopping MVP from using it and costing them tons of money, but this is just one form of resistance,” Elliott said in a statement from the group that urged action at all levels. It was the latest in a series of human blockades of the natural gas pipeline since construction began in 2018. Protesters have sat in tree stands and chained themselves to heavy equipment and even a Mountain Valley helicopter in standoffs that usually lasted a day or less.Last month, two tree-sitters were removed from their perches in Montgomery County, ending after about two and a half years what was by far the longest continuing protest. Both are being held without bond pending hearings on criminal charges. They also are scheduled to appear in circuit court, where a judge in a civil case ordered them down last November. A preliminary injunction was sought by Mountain Valley, which says the protests are delaying a project that will deliver needed natural gas to markets along the East Coast.
Army Corps extends Mountain Valley Pipeline comment deadline -- The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has extended by 30 days a public comment period on the Mountain Valley Pipeline's Clean Water Act permit. The comment period had been set to expire April 28, but environmentalists and others had asked the Army Corps to extend it even further. Now comments will be taken until May 28. MVP, a nearly $6 billion project of Canonsburg-based Equitrans Midstream Corp. (NYSE: ETRN), will connect Marcellus and Utica shale natural gas from the region down through West Virginia and Virginia to markets in the Southeast. It's several years overdue from construction delays, lawsuits and regulatory review, but Equitrans said as recently as earlier this year that the pipeline will be operational by the end of 2021. The Army Corps water permit, which will allow MVP to do work amid wetlands and streams, is one of the final pieces that Equitrans needs before completing the pipeline. The Corps will look at the impact of the project on wetlands, fish and wildlife and other factors. "That decision will reflect the national concern for both the protection and the utilization of important resources," the US Army Corps of Engineers Huntington District said in a public notice Friday. One of the groups against the pipeline, Wild Virginia, said 60 days wasn't enough time. "The information MVP has submitted to the Corps is woefully inadequate, leaving the agency and the public without data and analyses that must inform such an important decision," said Wild Virginia Conservation Director David Sligh. Sligh also said that the Army Corps should grant Virginia regulators' request for a year's extension for it to do its own Clean Water Act permit review. "Wild Virginia and numerous other groups have supported that request, because the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality and State Water Control Board must have necessary time to gather more information and complete a very complicated analysis," Sligh said. There hasn't been a ruling on that. The comment period will now be 60 days long, instead of the previous 45.U.S. natgas rises to 6-wk high on near-record exports, cool weather (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose to a six-week high on Monday on forecasts for more heating demand this week than previously expected and near-record liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipeline exports. Front-month gas futures NGc1 rose 6.9 cents, or 2.6%, to settle at $2.749 per million British thermal units, their highest close since March 3. That increase pushed the front-month into overbought territory with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) over 70 for the first time since mid-February. With the front-month up in seven of the past eight trading sessions, speculators last week boosted their net long futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges for the first time in eight weeks. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 91.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, down from 91.6 bcfd in March. That compares with a record monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would fall from 97.7 bcfd this week to 89.2 bcfd next week as the weather turns seasonally milder. The demand forecast for this week was higher than Refinitiv projected on Friday.
U.S. natgas futures slip as milder weather cuts heating demand (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slipped on Tuesday from a six-week high in the prior session on forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. The price decline came despite a dip in output in recent days and ongoing near-record liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipeline exports. Front-month gas futures NGc1 fell 2.2 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $2.727 per million British thermal units. On Monday, the contract closed at its highest since March 3. With stockpiles at normal levels and the weather expected to turn seasonally milder, traders said price spikes were unlikely in coming weeks. That helped drive futures at-the-money implied volatility NGATMIV down to 27.5%, its lowest since May 2019. Implied volatility, a determinant of an option's premium, rose to 115.1% in February during the Texas freeze, its second highest on record. Implied volatility hit a record high of 117.5% in November 2018 due to big changes in winter weather forecasts that caused a rapid increase in prices and the failure and liquidation of commodity trading adviser OptionSellers.com. Volatility hit a record low of 18.6% in April 2019 on mild summer forecasts and a belief that record production at the time would meet any increase in demand and keep prices in check.
Natural Gas Futures Prices Slide Further Ahead of EIA Storage Data; Northeast Cash Rallies - Natural gas futures continued to peel back midweek as production ticked higher and export demand retreated. Staring down a softer storage injection week/week, traders sent the May Nymex futures contract down another 3.5 cents to $2.692. June slipped 2.7 cents to $2.7 Spot gas prices also declined across most of the country, but dollar-plus gains in the Northeast helped to lift NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. up 4.0 cents to $2.690.Though the weather data has maintained a chilly outlook through April 27, the warm-up expected thereafter may be starting to pressure prices. NatGasWeather said the midday Global Forecast System weather model was a little chillier later this weekend and early next week as cool air is expected to linger across the northern United States slightly stronger and longer. However, the latest data held onto the “slightly bearish” pattern April 27-May 5.An uptick in the latest production data amid a slate of springtime pipeline maintenance, along with slightly lower liquefied natural gas (LNG) feed gas demand also influenced price behavior.On the production front, output took a dramatic decline last weekend, according to Wood Mackenzie. The firm said output fell from 92.1 Bcf/d on April 16 to 90.3 Bcf/d on Monday and then to a recent low of 89.4 Bcf/d on Tuesday.Most of the decline in output was attributed to the Northeast, where Southwest Pennsylvania (SWPA) production dropped by 0.8 Bcf/d to 7.1 Bcf/d on Tuesday. The receipt points responsible for the decreased receipts were gathering system interconnects in Greene County.
US natural gas storage volumes increase nearly in line with five-year average | S&P Global Platts -US natural gas storage fields added 38 Bcf, just above an S&P Global Platts survey calling for a 37 Bcf gain, for the week ended April 16 as the remaining Henry Hub summer strip continues its recent climb. Storage inventories increased 38 Bcf to 1.883 Tcf for the week-ended April 16, the US Energy Information Administration reported April 22. The build barely missed the 37 Bcf addition expected by an S&P Global Platts survey of analysts, as well as the five-year average build of 37 Bcf, according to EIA data. The injection measured well below the 61 Bcf build reported for the week prior, in part due to lower total US supply. The decline was mainly centered on an unexpected fall in production in the Southeast and Texas regions. Production in Texas alone fell by nearly 500 MMcf/d for the second week in a row, while Southeast output shed roughly 350 MMcf/d, according to Platts Analytics. Downstream demand lurched higher across all sectors, with residential and commercial, industrial and power burn rising by more than 2 Bcf/d, while exports to Mexico rose by 1 Bcf/d. Storage volumes now stand 251 Bcf, or 11.8%, less than the year-ago level of 2.134 Tcf and 12 Bcf, or 0.6%, more than the five-year average of 1.871 Tcf. The NYMEX Henry Hub May contract added 6 cents to $2.76/MMBtu in trading following the release of the weekly storage report. The bullishness extended across the balance of summer as prices through October 2021 have risen by an average 6 cents. S&P Global Platts Analytics' supply and demand model currently forecasts a meager 1 Bcf injection for the week ending April 23, which would measure 66 Bcf less than the five-year average. Demand has seen large gains, particularly from the residential and commercial sector as colder weather is driving home heating demand, reversing seasonal declines in some areas. Meanwhile, power burn growth has continued, albeit at a slower pace than the week ended April 16, with demand from the power sector increasing by 700 MMcf/d week over week, or roughly half the rate from a week earlier. The shift was driven by a blast of colder-than-normal temperatures across most of the US, which pushed up residential and commercial demand estimates in the three largest demand regions of the East, South Central and Midwest.
Natural-gas prices turn higher; EIA reports a 38 billion cubic foot rise in U.S. natural-gas supplies -The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported on Thursday (link) that domestic supplies of natural gas rose by 38 billion cubic feet for the week ended April 16. That just about matched an average increase of 37 billion cubic feet forecast by analysts polled by S&P Global Platts. Total stocks now stand at 1.883 trillion cubic feet, down 251 billion cubic feet from a year ago but 12 billion cubic feet above the five-year average, the government said. Following the data, May natural gas was up 4.3 cents, or 1.6%, to $2.74 per million British thermal units. It traded at $2.69 shortly before the data (link).
U.S. natgas eases from 7-week high on milder weather forecasts (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased on Friday from a seven-week high in the previous session on forecasts for the weather to moderate over the next two weeks. That small decline came despite a smaller-than-expected storage build, record exports and small declines in production. Traders also noted that colder-than-normal weather this week boosted heating demand by so much that utilities could take the unusual step of pulling gas from storage. The last time utilities pulled gas from storage in April was in 2018. Front-month gas futures NGc1 fell 1.9 cents, or 0.7%, to settle at $2.730 per million British thermal units. On Thursday, the contract closed at its highest since March 3. For the week, the front-month was up about 2% after rising 6% last week. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 91.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, down from 91.5 bcfd in March. That compares with a record monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019.
Al Gore: Stop the reckless, racist pipeline in Southwest Memphis - On Tuesday, when the Memphis City Council votes on an ordinance to protect the city’s pristine water supply, it will be choosing between the future health and well-being of Memphis and the future profits of two Texas oil companies trying to seize the property of Black citizens in Southwest Memphis to transport $9 billion of crude oil per year from the fracking fields in Texas to tankers in Louisiana for export.There are three reasons why the Council should vote to protect Memphis’s people and drinking water, despite the objections of the pipeline companies: (1) it is reckless; (2) it is racist; and (3) it is a rip-off.First, it is reckless to bury a huge high-pressure oil pipeline directly over the crown jewel of the city: the Memphis Sand Aquifer, one of the purest aquifers in the world and the sole source of drinking water for all of Memphis. Incredibly, they also want to tunnel directly through a vulnerable “wellfield zone” – one of several places where the protective clay layer above the aquifer is breached and the aquifer especially vulnerable to contamination. A spill there would be utterly catastrophic. Moreover, the region stretching from Memphis to New Madrid, Missouri, is the most dangerous earthquake zone east of the Rocky Mountains. Three of the largest earthquakes in U.S. history hit here early in the 19th Century – ringing church bells in Boston. As a Senator representing Memphis 30 years ago, I held hearings on the risk of another big quake here. The seismologists said it’s a matter of when, not if. Meanwhile, Valero’s large refinery is already the worst source of toxic air pollution in Shelby County, with most of the pollution carried into Southwest Memphis. Last year, Valero spilled 800 gallons of crude oil near the planned route of the Byhalia pipeline.These companies’ assurances of safety would be laughable if their records were not so dangerous. Second, it is racist because the proposed route intentionally snakes through the 97% Black communities of Southwest Memphis, where residents are already suffering a horribly disproportionate and dangerous level of pollution and a cancer rate four times the national average. It is a textbook example of environmental injustice. When the companies were asked why they chose this route, they said Southwest Memphis was “the point of least resistance.”The two oil companies pushing this reckless project – Valero and Plains All-American – have both been charged for their reckless negligence. In 2015, a Plains pipeline ruptured in California, spreading oil over nine miles of the Santa Barbara coast. Plains has also been prosecuted for 10 other pipeline spills in four states and in Canada for one of the largest ground-based oil spills in the history of North America.
Memphis holds back Byhalia Pipeline, water protection ordinance - The Memphis City Council pressed pause on its legislative opposition to the Byhalia Connection Pipeline.The council held off voting on an ordinance that would create expanded regulations for any sort of development that could affect Memphis' drinking water supply and cross a Memphis, Light, Gas, and Water wellfield, including, potentially, the pipeline. The ordinance was due for a third and final reading Tuesday before the delay. The ordinance would require the Memphis City Council's public works committee to approve any piece of infrastructure that handles materials that are deemed hazardous and could affect the city's drinking water supply. Memphis draws its water from the Memphis Sand aquifer and there has been broad concern over whether the pipeline, if it ruptured, would harm the aquifer. Local and national advocates against the pipeline, including former Vice President Al Gore, have described the pipeline's route through historically Black neighborhoods within Memphis city limits as environmental racism. Councilman Jeff Warren and Councilman Edmund Ford Sr., the sponsors of the ordinance, asked for at least a two-week delay to further fine-tune the measure. The council agreed to delay the vote.Warren said he wanted the delay after Memphis Chief Legal Officer Jennifer Sink, the city's top lawyer, asked him for one. Ford expressed concern about potential lawsuits.
Memphis Mayor Jim Strickland opposes Byhalia pipeline in Tennessee, Mississippi - As an "unacceptable risk" to the Memphis Sand aquifer, Mayor Jim Strickland said Tuesday he will support local efforts to regulate the proposed Byhalia pipeline, "after careful review and detailed conversations with environmental scientists" by his administration. The statement also urges state and federal agencies to thoroughly evaluate the Byhalia Pipeline proposal with more scrutiny. "I have great concerns that the Byhalia Pipeline would pose an unacceptable risk to our Aquifer. The risk of a leak in the pipeline is real, and any leak is likely to cause harm to the Aquifer. It’s a risk we should not take," Strickland wrote in a statement a city official said Memphis City Council received Tuesday. The Public Works committee delayed voting for two weeks Tuesday on an ordinance that aims to address the risk of contamination opponents of the crude oil project say it poses to the Memphis Sand aquifer, which supplies drinking water to residents throughout Shelby County. Regarding several permits under consideration for the proposed pipeline to cross city streets, Strickland wrote, "We are not proceeding with those until we have a handle on our legal authority over the pipeline; therefore, a stay can be enforced, in part, by our holding those permits in abeyance." "Memphians deserve to have their drinking water protected," Strickland said. Legality of ordinance to protect public health, environment challenged The ordinance would require new underground infrastructure projects to meet three criteria, according to attorney George Nolan of the Southern Environmental Law Center. "Number one, it's not going to hurt the aquifer. Number two, it's not going to disproportionately penalize neighborhoods that have been treated unfairly in the past. And three, it's not going to risk bankrupting the city," Nolan said. Plains All American Pipeline, which seeks to build the 49-mile pipeline in partnership with the Valero Energy Corp., has not addressed three inquiries from The Commercial Appeal regarding whether the company has full remediation liability insurance coverage in the event of a spill requiring groundwater clean-up. “Protecting the aquifer and the drinking water supply, which is so important to this community, is something we take very seriously," Plains spokesperson Katie Martin said Friday. Introducing lawyer Robert Spence Tuesday, she told council members members Plains wanted "to have a frank conversation about what we think this ordinance means for Memphis."
Company asks for pause in Memphis oil pipeline dispute (AP) — A company facing resistance to its plans to build an oil pipeline over an aquifer that provides drinking water to 1 million people has asked for a "mutual pause” in its dispute with city officials in Memphis, Tennessee. Plains All American Pipeline sent a letter to the Memphis City Council about a proposed city law that could make it harder to construct an underground oil pipeline through wetlands and neighborhoods in south Memphis and north Mississippi. Plains is part of a joint venture with Valero Energy to build the Byhalia Connection, which would link the Valero refinery in Memphis with another larger pipeline in north Mississippi. The council’s ordinance would establish a board to approve or deny construction of underground pipelines that transport oil or other potentially hazardous liquids near wells that pump millions of gallons of water daily from the Memphis Sand Aquifer. The ordinance is backed by pipeline opponents who fear an oil spill would endanger the aquifer. The council made no mention of the Plains letter during a vote Tuesday to delay a vote on the ordinance for two weeks. Councilors said they decided to postpone a decision so they could address questions they themselves had and allow input from the mayor’s office and the local water company. In the letter, Plains said Byhalia Connection is willing to suspend development activities and address city council and community concerns “if the City is willing to suspend consideration, adoption, or final reading of the existing or any new ordinance that could affect the pipeline or refinery.” “We very much appreciate your willingness to talk with us and receive our feedback and work to resolve any differences,” the letter said. “It’s in this light that we would like to propose a ‘mutual pause.’” Byhalia has threatened to sue if the ordinance passes. In a statement, project spokeswoman Katie Martin called the proposed law “an example of ill-conceived local government overreach that is preempted by state and federal law.”
Pavilion Energy Imports Carbon Neutral LNG Cargo --Pavilion Energy Singapore Pte. Ltd. has announced that it has imported a carbon neutral LNG cargo into Singapore, a first for the company and the country, Pavilion Energy highlighted.Carbon emissions associated with the LNG cargo from well to tank - including the extraction, production, transportation, and regasification - will be offset by retiring a corresponding amount of carbon credits sourced from the company’s portfolio of carbon offset projects, Pavilion Energy revealed.The carbon credits used for the offset are from Natural Climate Solutions projects certified under the Verified Carbon Standard (VCS) and Climate, Community and Biodiversity Standard (CCB), Pavilion Energy noted. The projects - Evio Kuinaji Ese’Eja Cuana in Peru and Liangdu Afforestation in China - focus on the protection and restoration of forests and promote co-benefits through supporting local communities and protecting biodiversity, the company outlined. “This carbon neutral cargo is another important milestone for Pavilion Energy in our ambition to provide cleaner energy and develop our carbon trading activities,” Frédéric H. Barnaud, the group chief executive officer of Pavilion Energy, said in a company statement.
Lt. Gen. Honore on Seacor Power capsize — The Seacor Power remains capsized off the coast of Louisiana, more than a week after the commercial lift boat turned over in rough seas. Of the 19 crew members, six were rescued and the rest are dead or still missing. It’s the worst marine disaster in the Gulf of Mexico since the explosion on the Deepwater Horizon oil rig 11 years ago to the day on Tuesday. That explosion resulted in 11 deaths and an oil spill which lasted 87 days. Retired Army General Russel Honore says the Seacorp Power accident gives him a sense of déjà vu. “Let me get to the bottom line, we have a problem in Louisiana with safety when it comes to the oil and gas business,” Honore said. “Anything is okay. Here we have in 11 years, two of the biggest accidents in the gulf off the coast of Louisiana.” Honore helped restore order in New Orleans following Hurricane Katrina in 2005. He was back in the city to speak at a BP oil spill anniversary event. “Here we are, we’ve got these dangerous pieces of equipment, working oil and gas that operate at the will of the company,” Honore said. Monday, Seacor Marine CEO John Gellert said the "go/no-go decision" for the vessel to depart Port Fourchon in bad weather was "entirely the captain's.” “The captain has full control of the vessel,” Gellert said. “The vessel is owned by Seacor Marine, under the control of Seacor Marine. He had our support for his decision to sail.” Honore suspects the crew may have been pressured to get underway. “Let’s look at how it looked to that captain with the CEO sitting in his air-conditioned building in Texas,” Honore said. “We need to get this boat out there. You all do what you all can.” Honore, an environmental crusader since leaving the Army, is once again calling for better government oversight of vessels and drilling platforms operating in the gulf. He is also urging the National Transportation Safety Board to recommend a Captain of the Port be appointed at Port Fourchon. That official would have the power to tell boat captains when it’s too dangerous to set sail.
GAO raises concerns about government inspections of offshore pipelines --A report from the Government Accountability Office (GAO) says that the federal government lacks “robust” processes to both ensure the integrity of active offshore pipelines and to deal with inactive ones that have been left on the seafloor. The nonpartisan congressional watchdog found that the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) does not generally conduct or require inspections for active undersea pipelines, and also said that safety devices are not always reliable. It said that the agency has worked with industry on new technology, but that there are limits on its use. On inactive pipelines, the watchdog also found that BSEE doesn’t adequately account for safety and environmental risks for applications to decommission the vessels and has allowed 97 percent of all pipeline mileage to be left on the seafloor. Specifically, the bureau doesn’t fully weigh whether pipelines are “hazards to navigation and commercial fishing operations, unduly interfere with other uses of the [outer continental shelf] or have adverse environmental effects,” the report said. It also said that the agency doesn’t ensure that companies that operate the pipelines meet standards for decommissioning them and that it also doesn’t monitor their condition or location. “The business model of drilling our oceans for a quick buck and sticking the public with the cleanup bill is coming to an end,” House Natural Resources Committee Chairman Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.) said in a statement on the report. “Our oceans are there for all of us, not just oil and gas companies, and if they can’t behave responsibly on their own, this Congress will be happy to step in and set some overdue boundaries,” Grijalva added.
U.S. Needs to Better Monitor Oil, Gas Pipelines in Gulf of Mexico, Report Says – WSJ —Federal officials aren’t adequately monitoring the integrity of 8,600 miles of active oil-and-gas pipelines on the Gulf of Mexico’s seafloor, and for decades have allowed the industry to abandon old pipelines with little oversight, a new report to Congress shows. The Government Accountability Office report faults the Interior Department’s offshore oil-safety regulator’s reliance on surface observations and pressure sensors, rather than subsea inspection, to monitor for leaks. The agency’s own staff acknowledges those techniques could fail to detect a slow discharge from a pipeline over a long period, particularly in deep water where most oil production occurs, the report says. The report urges the regulator, the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement, to resume work on a long-stalled update to pipeline rules. BSEE currently requires monthly inspections of pipeline routes in the Gulf by helicopter or marine vessel, to look for oil sheens or gas bubbles on the surface to determine whether a pipeline is leaking. By comparison, the bureau’s Pacific office requires subsea pipeline inspections, in part because of seismic concerns, on its much smaller network of 200 miles of active pipelines. In interviews with the GAO, BSEE officials acknowledged that “surface observations are not generally reliable indicators of pipeline leakage,” because diffused leaking oil and gas can move far from the source, especially in deep water. “BSEE officials told us that industry has been largely receptive to improving leak detection but noted that the bureau cannot compel industry to take any action to detect leaks that is not described in its regulations,” the report said. An Interior Department official, responding in the GAO report, said the department “generally agrees with the report findings” and that it is following the GAO’s urging to draft new rules governing offshore pipelines. The GAO also found that BSEE and its predecessors allowed the oil industry to leave thousands of miles of decommissioned pipelines on the seafloor rather than incur the cost of raising them back to the surface. Federal regulations allow BSEE to permit operators to decommission pipelines in place, cleaning and burying them in the seabed. The GAO found that the agency doesn’t ensure standards are followed, even as it allowed 97% of the miles of decommissioned pipelines taken out of active use in the Gulf since the 1960s—nearly 18,000 miles—to remain in place. BSEE also has failed to fully consider whether decommissioned pipelines represent a hazard to navigation and commercial fishing, like trawlers that can be damaged by snagging equipment on undersea pipelines, the report said. Eighty-nine trawlers reported damage from snagging on oil-and-gas equipment between 2015 and 2019, the report found. BSEE’s failure to inspect decommissioned pipelines also means officials don’t have a complete record of which equipment has been properly cleaned and buried, or whether hurricanes and underwater landslides have moved buried pipelines, potentially creating navigation hazards and environmental damage. A buried 9-mile pipeline segment was swept 4,000 feet out of place by Hurricane Katrina, the report said. ‘The business model of drilling our oceans for a quick buck and sticking the public with the cleanup bill is coming to an end.’ BSEE also allowed oil producers to leave in place some 250 decommissioned “umbilical lines” that carry electricity and hydraulic power to subsea equipment, the report said, over objections of some Interior officials who were concerned that these lines often contain hazardous chemicals that could leak over time as the equipment degrades. BSEE officials told the GAO they authorized those placements based on guidance from the Environmental Protection Agency during the Trump administration, which championed the oil industry.
Enbridge settles with shipping firm after 2018 Line 5 anchor strike— Enbridge Inc has settled a lawsuit with a shipping firm and owners of a vessel which damaged its Line 5 pipeline under the Straits of Mackinac. Settlement funds were wired to Enbridge by the Van Enkevort Tug & Barge and MOM Erie Trader on Thursday, April 15, according to filings in U.S. District Court in Grand Rapids. Van Enkevort and MOM Erie Trader also settled in December with American Transmission Co., which owns power cables severely damaged on April 1, 2018 when the shipping firm’s vessel combo dragged an anchor through the straits. According to the lawsuits, the Clyde S. Van Enkevort tug and Erie Trader barge (which operate as one connected vessel), dragged a 12,000-pound anchor across the underwater utility corridor, severing two submerged power cables that spilled 600 gallons of dielectric fluid. The anchor also damaged the controversial Line 5 pipeline. The incident happened amid intense scrutiny and discussion about the risk posed by the dual oil lines and helped lead to a deal with former Gov. Rick Snyder to replace them in a utility tunnel.The U.S. Coast Guard later determined an anchor brake pad on the vessel was improperly installed. That, coupled with an unexplained loss of backup breaks and other communications errors in rough weather, caused the anchor to release.Although toxic to aquatic life, the Coast Guard said the dielectric fluid release was not determined to have significant impact on the environment. According to the Detroit News, vessel operators did not discover the anchor was dragging until they neared port at Indiana Harbor at the south end of Lake Michigan. In a 2020 filing, the shipping firm and vessel owners argued that Enbridge was at fault for the incident because it failed to locate its dual underwater pipeline in a location that was protected against anchor strikes and did not apply protective armoring to cover the lines.Consumers Energy also sued but later dismissed its case against the vessel operators. The company had decommissioned power cables that were also damaged. Consumers removed those cables from the straits last year.
US oil, gas rig count drops for first time this year, losing 11 rigs — The US oil and gas rig count took a step back, falling 11 to 530 on the week, rig data provider Enverus said April 22 – the first rig count drop this year, even as improving confidence in oil fundamentals continued to percolate ahead of first-quarter 2021 E&P earnings. Oil rigs fell steeply to 404, down 15 for the week ended April 21, while natural gas-oriented rigs gained four to 126. And the much-watched giant Permian Basin of West Texas/Southeast New Mexico shed five rigs, leaving 231. The 11-rig exodus from domestic fields in the past week, after months of weekly increases, was "somewhat surprising," S&P Global Platts Analytics analyst Taylor Cavey said. "Until we start to see a trend, it will be hard to determine whether or not it is a [mere] blip." While the rig count has trended up this year, a drop of the current week's magnitude may not be unexpected given rig additions among the conventional plays in recent weeks, Cavey said. Also, the week's decrease was split between vertical oil rigs and horizontal oil rigs, indicating more conventional and unconventional plays. "From an operator perspective, its hard to say what's going on as the decline was widespread (large-caps, small-caps and privately-held operators)," Cavey added. "Majors remained flat week on week. Meanwhile, horizontal gas rigs increased by four, led by the Marcellus and Utica," two Appalachian-area gas-weighted shale plays. 600-plus rigs by year-end? Platts Analytics is forecasting that total rigs will breach the 600 level by the end of 2021. Also, the US hydraulic fracturing spread, or unit, count is 220 this week, compared to 315 operating pre-coronavirus pandemic. The "frac" count indicates well completions ahead of placing the wells on production. Rig counts in other large US basins mostly moved up or down by a single rig, although the Marcellus Shale, mostly in Pennsylvania, gained three rigs for a total 35. Otherwise, the gas-prone Haynesville Shale of East Texas/Northwest Louisiana, and the Utica Shale largely in Ohio, each gained a rig for respective totals of 48 and 14. Losing a rig each were the Eagle Ford Shale of South Texas, the SCOOP-STACK play of Oklahoma, the Bakken Shale of North Dakota/Montana and the DJ Basin of Colorado. That left the Eagle Ford with 43 rigs, the SCOOP-STACK with 16, the Bakken with 15 and the DJ with 12.
Rig and Frac Spread Counts Near Benchmarks - Metrics tied to U.S. drilling and hydraulic fracturing activity are approaching important benchmarks. U.S. rig and active frac spread counts are closing in on required levels to keep overall crude production flat with Fourth Quarter 2020 exit rates, which was the consensus target heading into the year. Current oil prices in the mid-$60-per-barrel range remain above levels baked into operators’ annual spending plans, setting up the question heading into earnings season as to whether those original capital budgets will be revised. So far, E&P companies have stuck to the mantra of “fiscal discipline.” We expect that will continue as the companies report 1Q21 results, which would support crude prices in the near-term. Drilling activity has picked-up and more previously drilled-but-uncompleted wells are being completed. The market will look for signs of this trend continuing. It appears that privately owned E&P companies have the most freedom to start new activity as publicly traded companies are staying disciplined in capital expenditures in deference to maintaining “free cash flow” for dividend distributions and stock buybacks. And, while the bullish signals of the past week have overshadowed the spreading of COVID-19 variants, the market will have to keep a close watch on this.
Legendary Trader Sees ‘Seismic Shift’ in Houston’s Oil Patch - For John Arnold, the billionaire philanthropist who made his fortune betting on natural gas prices, Houston’s fossil-fuel industry seems finally ready to move on. A year ago, talk in the Texas energy hub was mostly about defending oil and gas and denouncing renewables, Arnold, 47, said Monday on his Twitteraccount. Now, much of the discussion has shifted to clean-energy topics including wind, solar and batteries.There’s been seismic shift in the Houston energy industry of late. A year ago, there was a lot of defending the oil & gas sector and denouncing renewables. Anecdotally, about 75% of the talk was O&G and 25% clean energy. It feels like those numbers have reversed. — John Arnold (@JohnArnoldFndtn)April 19, 2021 “Even those who are not ideological believers are taking the cues from the financial markets, which have no interest in oil production growth anymore,” said Arnold, the former head of natural-gas derivatives at Enron Corp.He also said capital available to oil and gas has dried up while “every” private equity firm in Houston is raising money for clean energy. “The markets are rewarding those in a growth industry (zero carbon energy) vs one in secular decline.” Arnold said the shift has made him more optimistic about the speed of decarbonization, which requires the scale and financial resources that large companies possess. “The fossil fuel industry has that expertise and is now focusing on a low carbon future.”One example of the energy industry moving itself forward is a recent proposal by Exxon Mobil Corp. for a $100 billion hub to capture carbon dioxide emissions along the U.S. Gulf Coast in Texas, said Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner.The leader of America’s fourth-biggest city, which bills itself as the energy capital of the world, said Houston isn’t trying to move away from the energy industry that the city was built on -- but rather, move forward with it. “This is an example of the city of Houston leading in energy transition, and for the energy industry -- our hydrocarbon companies, this is a seismic shift,” said Turner, who is chairman of the national nonprofit group Climate Mayors. “The recognition that we can’t continue to do business as we have done it in the past is sinking in.” Arnold founded hedge fund Centaurus Advisors LLC in 2003 after leaving Enron, and the Houston-based fund gained fame betting against Amaranth AdvisorsLLC, which collapsed in 2006 after losing $6.6 billion on bad bets in the natural gas market. He closed the fund in 2012 at age 38 to pursue philanthropy with his wife Laura Arnold, a lawyer and former oil company executive, with the couple extending their influence through Arnold Venturesout of Houston.
Small Companies Rush To Buy Up Big Oil’s Assets - Big Oil is shedding assets like a dog sheds its winter coat. In a rush to prove their emerging environmentally conscious credentials, the supermajors are pledging billions in low-carbon energy investments and committing to net-zero goals over the next decade. Meanwhile, smaller oil and gas companies are snapping up the shed assets. The Wall Street Journal reported this week that small energy independents are happy to relieve Big Oil of its unwanted assets as they bet on the long-term future of oil and gas despite the seemingly ubiquitous ambition to eliminate oil and gas from the world’s energy mix. “While I agree that the direction of traffic is one way, toward renewables, I think it’s going to take longer than people think,” says Blair Thomas, chief executive of UK-listed Harbour Energy, as quoted by the WSJ. “Capital that is not being spent now, is production that the industry won’t have two or three years from now. The question is, will renewable penetration happen fast enough so that as demand comes back you don’t create a pinch? I tend to think it won’t.” Thomas is not alone in thinking this. In fact, analysts expect the world’s thirst for oil and gas to continue rising, especially in Asia. Wood Mackenzie, for one, recently forecast that demand for crude oil there could jump by as much as 25 percent by 2040. Given that Asia is currently the biggest oil guzzler globally, 25 percent would be quite a sizeable increase. Meanwhile, production on a global scale will probably be lower because of all the low-carbon commitments of Big Oil.Other analysts have noted the capital spending cuts that virtually every oil company in the world implemented during the pandemic, which affected their exploration activity. This could have implications about their long-term production outlooks, and these implications would be negative, potentially tipping the market into a shortage. In all fairness, there were warnings along the same lines during the 2014-2015 oil price crash, and they never materialized.
BP to Stop Flaring of Natural Gas in Permian Basin by 2025: WSJ - BP Plc will spend about $1.3 billion to build a network of pipes and other infrastructure to collect and capture natural gas produced as a byproduct from oil wells in the Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico, the Wall Street Journal reported.The plans, to be announced Monday, will eliminate routine flaring of natural gas in the oil field by 2025, the paper said. The burning of gas in this way is prevalent in the Permian because most producers there drill for more profitable oil and often incinerate the gas that comes as a byproduct, it added. “We will be producing oil and gas for decades, but it will be a certain kind of oil and gas,” Dave Lawler, the chairman of BP America Inc., is quoted in the WSJ. “It’s a highly profitable barrel and it’s a responsibly produced barrel.” The investment reflects the ever-growing pressure on the industry to reduce its carbon footprint and contributions to climate change. At the end of March, BP announced it had lowered its Scope 1 and 2 emissions, those associated mostly with production, by 16% in 2020.
New Mexico's bold plan on methane pollution should serve as a model -- While the U.S. and Russia may not agree on much, together they lead the world as the top emitters of methane, a dangerous greenhouse gas that is soaring to record levels in the earth’s atmosphere. But New Mexico, the third-biggest U.S. oil producer and a leading methane emitter, just finalized ambitious new rules to curtail methane pollution. It means other states and the Biden administration, which has promised to take on methane, can now look to the Land of Enchantment for the way forward.New Mexico’s rule, which follows over a year of public debate and is part of Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham’s (D) aggressive climate plan, calls for the oil and gas industry to capture 98 percent of its methane by 2026. This will require staunching the wasteful venting and flaring of natural gas, which is comprised almost entirely of methane. Today, it is discharged from thousands of wells as a cost-savings measure.New Mexico is also preparing a companion rule to address widespread leaking of methane from across the state’s oil and gas supply chain, which includes part of the mammoth Permian Basin it shares with Texas. The leaking occurs at well pads, pipelines, compressors, storage facilities and more, a system-wide problem that creates methane plumes large enough to detect from space. The draft rule on leaking, expected in May, would require regular inspection and repair of leaky equipment, which today goes largely unmitigated as another cost-savings measure.Controlling methane is a climate imperative. The gas has 80 times the heat-trapping potential of carbon dioxide, making it a potent driver of climate change. NASA says it has fueled a whopping 25 percent of human-caused global warming to date, a proportion projected to climb. And Environmental Protection Agency estimates, which are increasingly panned as too low, show methane pollution has been rising roughly since the U.S. oil boom began in the early 2000s.Research also shows that methane increasingly enters the atmosphere from biogenic sources such as wetlands or thawing permafrost. In the latter, warming tied to methane begets more methane. It is the ominous type of feedback loop that global warming alarmists have rightfully warned about for decades.But potentially hopeful news is that methane only survives in the atmosphere for about 10 years, in contrast to the centuries-long lifespan of carbon dioxide. Consequently, methane rules today could produce swift returns on climate as the world grapples with the harder problem of carbon dioxide emissions.
U.S. appeals court denies Dakota Access rehearing request, environmental review to continue (Reuters) - A U.S. appeals court on Friday denied Dakota Access LLC's petition for a rehearing of a court decision that canceled a key permit for its oil pipeline and ordered an environmental review, court documents show. The decision by the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia means the Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL) technically is still trespassing on federal land because it does not have a permit to cross under the Dakotas' Lake Oahe. The line is currently operating indefinitely but will be reassessed once the environmental review of the line is completed in March 2022. The 570,000 barrel-per-day DAPL began operating in mid-2017 but drew controversy during construction as Native American tribes and activists protested its route under Oahe, a critical drinking water source for the tribes. Last summer, a U.S. district court judge threw out a federal permit for the line to operate under the lake and ordered an environmental review for that section of the pipeline. A three-judge panel at the circuit court in January upheld the lower court's decision to vacate the permit and require the review. The pipeline's operators wanted the circuit court to reconsider the panel's decision, but the court unanimously denied the request. The decision leaves only the U.S. Supreme Court for Dakota Access to oppose the environmental review and permit denial, but it's not certain the nation's highest court will take up the case. "This is a pretty definitive statement that the legal issues in this case do not warrant attention from the Supreme Court," said Earthjustice attorney Jan Hasselman, who represents the Standing Rock Sioux in the case. "Here, not only didn't we see dissents, not a single judge called for a vote."
Approximately 126,000 gallons of water spill from pipeline in Bowman County — Approximately 3,000 barrels, or 126,000 gallons, of water often used in oil production spilled near Marmarth on Monday, April 19, according to the North Dakota Department of Environmental Quality. The agency says the spill came from a pipeline leak likely caused by external corrosion. The owner of the pipeline is Delaware corporation Denbury Onshore LLC. Marmarth is about 100 miles southwest of Dickinson on the far western edge of the state. The water that leaked from the pipeline was source water, which is higher in dissolved minerals than freshwater, according to the Department of Environmental Quality. Source water is lower in chlorides than produced water, which is created through oil and gas extraction. The Department of Environmental Quality said its personnel are inspecting the spill site and are also conducting an investigation.
Alaska oil industry still reeling from pandemic crash - The price of North Slope crude largely recovered months ago from the unprecedented fall it took a year ago, but if a recovery is also going to occur in Alaska’s oil workforce it has yet to materialize. Preliminary employment data for March from the state Labor Department indicates the industry is continuing in the other direction. Approximately 6,300 people were employed in the state’s oil and gas sector last month, which was in line with February but did not reverse a declining trend that has persisted since the start of the pandemic. Following a near-term peak of 10,200 oil and gas jobs in February 2020, the industry has shed nearly 40 percent of its workforce; it is the largest drop among all of the industries the Labor Department tracks. But the recent decline in one of the state’s trademark industries is not an isolated incident. Alaska’s oil and gas workforce has contracted by 57 percent since peaking at an average of 14,800 jobs in 2014. Alaska Oil and Gas Association CEO Kara Moriarty emphasized that while the operating companies would relish the ability to hire more workers again, what has happened in Alaska is reflective of the national picture. Nationally, the industry peaked at nearly 199,000 direct jobs in 2015 and has had 133,000 through the first few months of 2021, a one-third drop in employment. “When you have a price fall like we have from 2014 to today the companies just don’t have as much money to spend and it does force efficiencies and you just can’t drill as many wells when prices are where they’re at today compared to 2014,” Moritarty said. The price for Alaska crude stood at $66.62 per barrel on April 19, according to the state Revenue Department and it has remained greater than $60 per barrel since early February — a return to where it started 2020 — but still far from the $100 per barrel-plus regime the industry enjoyed early last decade. State labor economist Neal Fried said the simple price of oil is consistently the best indicator of pending employment trends in the industry. While shale production in the Lower 48 requires more constant and labor-intensive drilling activity, there is clearly no correlation between oil production and jobs in Alaska. Pre-pandemic employment levels are in line with the size of the industry when more than 1 million barrels per day were being produced on the North Slope.
Competition Heats Up in the Melting Arctic, and the US Isn’t Prepared to Counter Russia - For decades, the frozen Arctic was little more than a footnote in global economic competition, but that’s changing as its ice melts with the warming climate.Russia is now attempting to claim more of the Arctic seabed for its territory. It has been rebuilding Cold War-era Arctic military bases and recently announced plans to test its Poseidon nuclear-powered, nuclear-armed torpedo in the Arctic. In Greenland, the recent election ushered in a new pro-independence government that opposes foreign rare earth metal mining as its ice sheet recedes – including projects counted on by China and the U.S. to power technology.The Arctic region has been warming at least twice as fast as the planet as a whole. With the sea ice now thinner and disappearing sooner in the spring, several countries have had their eyes on the Arctic, both for access to valuable natural resources, including the fossil fuels whose use is now driving global warming, and as a shorter route for commercial ships.A tanker carrying liquefied natural gas from northern Russia to China tested that shorter route this past winter, traversing the normally frozen Northern Sea Route in February for the first time with the help of an icebreaker. The route cut the shipping time by nearly half.Russia has been building up its icebreaker fleet for years for this and other purposes. The U.S., meanwhile, is playing catch-up. While Russia has access to more than 40 of these ships today, the U.S. Coast Guard has two, one of them well past its intended service life. America’s aging icebreaker fleet has been a persistent topic of frustration in Washington.Congress put off investing in new icebreakers for decades in the face of more pressing demands. Now, the lack of polar-class icebreakers undermines America’s ability to operate in the Arctic region, including responding to disasters as shipping and mineral exploration increase.It might sound counterintuitive, but diminishing sea ice can make the region more dangerous – breakaway ice floes pose risks both to ships and to oil platforms, and the opening waters are expected to attract both more shipping and more mineral exploration. The U.S. Geological Survey estimates that about 30% of the world’s undiscovered natural gas and 13% of undiscovered oil may be in the Arctic.
Russia probes oil spill in Gulf of Finland - Russian investigators on Wednesday said they are inspecting an oil spill in the Gulf of Finland near the city of Vyborg in the Leningrad region, hours after President Vladimir Putin called for stronger action against polluters.The Investigative Committee’s northwestern transport investigation department said it dispatched a team of its investigators and specialists from environmental watchdog Rosprirodnadzor to the scene of the spill near the Tovarnaya-Vyborg railway station.After the team inspected the site and collected water samples, “the body of water’s pollution was established,” the statement said.Investigators said the inspection is taking place under a criminal article against violation of rules for the transport of environmentally hazardous substances and waste.In his annual state-of-the-nation speech earlier Wednesday, Putin proposed allocating state budget funds toward environmental recovery and called for stronger restrictions on pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.“We cannot allow climate catastrophes like the one in Norilsk,” Putin said in his annual state-of-the-nation speech Wednesday, referring to the May 2020 diesel fuel spill that was branded the worst-ever environmental disaster in the Arctic. “If you make a profit from nature, clean up after yourself,” he said. The latest spill comes less than two weeks after a spill of about three tons of oil at the same train station. Local media reported that fuel had spilled onto the railway tracks as it was being transferred from a tank car to the station’s boiler depot.The Gulf of Finland is surrounded by Russia, Finland and Estonia and runs into the Baltic Sea.
Oil spillage occurs in Shells pipeline in Bayelsa, 1.34 hectares of land polluted - An oil pipeline spillage has occurred at the Okordia-Rumekpe 14-inch crude truckline, operated by Shell Petroleum Development Company (SPDC), discharging about 213 barrels of crude oil into Ikarama community in Bayelsa State. This is as the report indicates that about 1.34 hectares of land were polluted by the spillage which followed a rupture on the pipeline. According to a report from the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN), the spillage was confirmed by the Media Relations Manager for SPDC, Mr Bamidele Odugbesan, who said that the probe into the incident had been concluded. A Joint Investigative Visit (JIV) report on the incident on Thursday confirmed that the incident took place on April 7, while the investigation was concluded on April 12. JIV is a statutory probe into the cause of any recorded spill incident involving the oil firm, regulators, host communities and state ministries of environment. The JIV report concluded that the spill was an operational mishap traced to equipment failure which impacted nearby palm trees and fish ponds and subsequently recommended remediation of the site. The JIV report also states that out of the 213 barrels of SPDC’s bonny light crude stream leak, some 110 barrels are recoverable from the ongoing recovery exercise at the site, leaving an estimated spilled volume at 109.12 barrels. The JIV report, which anticipated that oil recovery would be concluded before the end of April, also recommended the replacement of sections of the pipeline to restore its integrity. This new leakage is the latest in a series of oil spillages by Shell which has put the multinational oil firm in conflict with the host communities. A report has suggested that Shell has reported over 1,000 spills with about 110,535 barrels of crude or 17.5 million litres lost since 2011, although some experts and stakeholders believe that the figure could be more in reality.
Search for missing Indonesian submarine finds oil spill - An aerial search found an oil spill near the submarine's dive location and two navy vessels with sonar capability have been deployed to assist the hunt, Indonesia's Defense Ministry said. Indonesian rescuers searching for a submarine that went missing with 53 people on board found an oil spill on Wednesday near its dive location, authorities said. The 44-year-old submarine, KRI Nanggala-402, was conducting a torpedo drill in waters north of the island of Bali but failed to relay the results as expected, a navy spokesman said. An aerial search found an oil spill near the submarine's dive location and two navy vessels with sonar capability have been deployed to assist the hunt, Indonesia's Defense Ministry said. A ministry statement said requests for assistance had been sent and Australia, Singapore and India had responded. CNN Indonesia reported that Indonesian navy official Julius Widjojono said he suspected the submarine had descended to a depth of 600-700 metres. "We are still searching in the waters of Bali, 60 miles (96 km) from Bali, (for) 53 people," military chief Hadi Tjahjanto told Reuters in a text message. He said contact with the vessel was lost at 4:30 a.m. on Wednesday. Representatives of the defence departments of Australia and Singapore did not immediately respond to requests for comment. The military chief will hold a media briefing to share further information about the search on Thursday from Bali, a spokesman said. Military analyst Soleman Ponto said it is too early to determine the fate of the submarine conclusively. "We don't know yet whether the communication equipments were broken or the submarine has sunken. We have to wait for at least three days," he said. The 1,395-tonne KRI Nanggala-402 was built in Germany in 1977, according to the defense ministry, and joined Indonesian fleet in 1981. It underwent a two-year refit in South Korea that was completed in 2012. Indonesia in the past operated a fleet of 12 submarines purchased from the Soviet Union to patrol the waters of its sprawling archipelago. But now it has a fleet of only five including two German-built Type 209 submarines and three newer South Korean vessels. Indonesia has been seeking to modernise its defence capabilities but some of its equipment still in service is old and there have been deadly accidents in recent years.
Libya's oil output down to 1M 1M barrels: Official - Libya’s oil production has declined from 1.3 million barrels to 1 million per day due to rising debts, the head of the country’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) said on Thursday. Production may fall further as oil companies are unable to work under mounting debts, according to NOC chief Mustafa Sanallah. The reason for the burgeoning debt is the reduction in budget allocation for public oil companies in Libya, the official said. “We have the capacity to raise the daily production of oil to more than 2 million barrels in the coming period, but not allocating budgets has prevented us from reaching that level,” Sanallah said. He urged Libya’s Oil Ministry to help resolve the budget issue, warning that production could go further down. Libya, a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), had an average daily production of 1.28 million barrels in March, according to OPEC figures.
Oil Demand Predicted to Jump 6 Percent in 2021 - Rystad Energy has revealed that its latest forecast projects a six percent year on year increase in oil demand in 2021. The company sees demand rising to an average of 95.4 million barrels per day (MMbpd) this year, from 89.6MMbpd in 2020. April 2021 demand is expected to hit 93 MMbpd, with 94 MMbpd projected in May and 95.8 MMbpd forecasted for June. Total oil demand in the third quarter is expected to average 96.8 MMbpd before rising to 98.3 MMbpd in the fourth quarter. Looking further ahead to 2022, Rystad said its estimates show that total oil demand next year will continue to rise, reaching about 99.4 MMbpd. Rystad believes that total global demand for road fuels will rise by nine percent this year to 45.1 MMbpd. In April, road fuel demand is expected to average 44.2 MMbpd globally, before rising to 44.9 MMbpd in May and 45.9 MMbpd in June. Road fuel demand is expected to average 46.2 MMbpd in the third quarter and 46.5 MMbpd in the fourth quarter. In 2022, Rystad forecasts that road fuel demand will hit 47.5 MMbpd. Rystad expects jet fuel demand, which it says has been hit the hardest by the pandemic, to rise 21 percent this year and average 3.9 MMbpd. The company noted however that this is still “a far cry from pre-pandemic levels”. Most of the recovery is expected during 2022, when Rystad anticipates jet fuel demand to average 5.4 MMbpd. The latest oil demand projections released by Rystad are part of the company’s monthly Covid-19 report, which calculates the effect of the pandemic and offers updated estimates for global energy markets. By monitoring recent developments, travel restrictions, quarantine obligations, and new government policies, Rystad says it is able to make frequent fact-based updates to its estimates. As of April 18, 2.35pm CEST, there have been 140.3 million confirmed cases of Covid-19 globally, with three million deaths, according to the latest figures from the World Health Organization (WHO). There have been 792.7 million vaccination doses administered worldwide, as of April 19, the latest WHO figures show.
It's reasonable for oil prices to be between $60 to $75 in a year's time, says oil expert Dan Yergin - Demand and supply pressures will offset each other in the oil market, and it's reasonable to expect prices to be in the $60 to $75 range in one year's time as countries recover from the coronavirus crisis, said oil expert Dan Yergin. "If we really do have the rest of the world recover, I think it's reasonable to think that oil would be in that $60 to $75 range," the vice chairman of IHS Markit said. "That's what the markets are telling us as the U.S. recovers, and China has already recovered," he told CNBC's "Street Signs Asia" on Tuesday. Brent crude futures gained 1.33% on Tuesday afternoon in Asia to trade at $67.94, while U.S. crude futures rose 1.28% to $64.19. While one trader sees prices potentially spiking to $100, Yergin's perspective is that a lot of supply is still offline, and can meet a surge in demand as global economies recover. "There's still a big surplus of oil that has to be brought back into the market," he said, noting that OPEC and its allies helped to lift prices by cutting production by nearly 10 million barrels per day. "There'll be offsetting pressures, and more supply would come in and we'd start to see the U.S. coming back into production again," he said. But Yergin acknowledged that it's difficult to predict where prices would be, and said Europe's recovery hangs in the balance. "The U.S. is headed into a hyper economic recovery right now, China has a very strong recovery and that will push up demand," he said. "The biggest uncertainty now is actually hanging over Europe and when Europe will be able to get out of its lockdown and start growing again," he said. Europe's Covid vaccine rollout has been slow to progress, and many Covid restrictions remain in place. The emergence of a more contagious variant has pushed the continent's Covid-19-related death toll beyond 1 million.
Oil down over low demand fears from surging virus cases -- Oil prices dropped on Monday due to investor jitters over the recent increase in coronavirus cases across the European continent and India to further dent energy demand. International benchmark Brent crude was trading at $66.48 per barrel at 0707 GMT for a 0.43% decrease after closing Friday at $66.77 a barrel. American benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was at $62.95 per barrel at the same time for a 0.37% drop after it ended the previous session at $63.19 a barrel. The tight measures following the surge in the number of coronavirus cases in some major economies, especially India, one of the world's largest oil consumers, fueled concerns over the recovery in oil demand and global economic growth, trimming prices. India recorded over 273,000 coronavirus cases in a single day for the first time since the start of the pandemic, taking the country’s tally to over 15 million, data from Johns Hopkins University showed. According to figures released by the Health Ministry, 273,810 cases were registered. The ministry said they also recorded 1,619 new deaths to stand the death toll at 178,769. Some governments, including Hong Kong, have suspended flights from India. The slow pace of vaccination campaigns and concerns over the fair distribution of vaccines around the world, which are set to hinder the speed of global mass immunity, are adding to existing fears of not achieving a faster demand recovery.
Oil Prices Edge Upward As Greenback Weakens -- Oil edged higher with help from a weakening dollar while a worsening demand picture in parts of the world continued to hold back prices from another breakout. Futures in New York rose 0.4% Monday after trading in a $1 range during the session. Total road fuel sales in France remained lower compared to the same time in 2019, while a key refiner in India is slashing oil processing rates as the virus rapidly spreads and lockdowns pummel fuel use in the country. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index headed for the lowest since late February, boosting the appeal of commodities priced in the currency. “Energy consumption in areas that are reopening faster than others is showing the increased demand for oil,” . “Other places will start to reopen one after another. It’s unclear when we’ll get to fully or more than 80% vaccinated, but that’s when crude oil can take off.” While rising momentum in the U.S. vaccination campaign is boosting optimism around a demand rebound there, the market is holding back from testing this year’s highs as it waits for other countries to narrow the gap. Oil’s forward curve is pointing toward growing confidence, with the widely watched spread between the nearest December contracts widening to its most bullish backwardation structure in roughly a month. “U.S. demand seems to be healthy, and that’s giving us support,” said Gary Cunningham, director at Stamford, Connecticut-based Tradition Energy. However, “we still have questions around international virus outbreaks, and we’re seeing troubling numbers in India that are forcing them to shut down infrastructure.” West Texas Intermediate for May settlement, which expires Tuesday, gained 25 cents to settle at $63.38 a barrel. The more-active June contract increased 24 cents to $63.43 a barrel. Brent for June delivery rose 28 cents to $67.05 a barrel. In physical markets, U.S. sour crudes are signaling strength as nationwide refineries runs have increased to the highest in over a year in recent weeks. The premium for Southern Green Canyon against Nymex oil futures is near the highest since late February, while other sour grades like Mars and Poseidon have also strengthened in the past couple months. Traders are also following high-level talks between Iran, the U.S. and other nations aimed at ending a standoff over the nuclear deal abandoned by former President Trump. Washington described negotiations as “constructive,” while the Islamic Republic signaled it was ready to debate details to revive the accord. An agreement could see U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports lifted.
Oil climbs as dollar slumps; gains capped by pandemic surge - Oil prices edged higher on Monday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar but gains were capped by concerns about the impact on demand from rising coronavirus cases in India. Brent crude settled up 28 cents, or 0.4%, at $67.05 a barrel, after rising 6% last week. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) U.S. oil ended the session up 25 cents, or 0.4%, at $63.38 a barrel, having gained 6.4% last week. The U.S. dollar traded at a six-week low versus major peers on Monday, with Treasury yields hovering near their weakest in five weeks. A weaker dollar makes oil cheaper for holders of other currencies. However, COVID-19 cases have surged in India, the world’s third biggest oil importer and consumer, dampening optimism for a sustained global recovery in demand. “If today’s broad-based weakness in the U.S. dollar is sustained, the energy complex should be able to maintain the bulk of last week’s gains,” said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates. “The primary hazard to continued oil price strength is the possible pre-emergence of COVID-19 case counts on a broad scale … large portions of Asia are seeing a renewed increase in cases that could force a re-appraisal of recent upward global oil demand adjustments.” India reported a record rise in infections, which lifted overall cases to just over 15 million, making the country the second-worst affected after the United States, which has reported more than 31 million infections. Deaths from COVID-19 in India also rose by a record 1,619 to nearly 180,000. The capital region of Delhi ordered a six-day lockdown, joining around 13 other states across India that have decided to impose restrictions, curfews or lockdowns in their cities. “This new wave of measures, while so far likely to be less stringent than what we saw in March 2020, when gasoline and gasoil/diesel demand in the country fell by close to 60%, is nevertheless set to weigh on transportation fuel consumption,”
Oil Prices Down Despite Libya Outage - Oil prices posted modest gains on early Tuesday morning following reports of an outage in Libya, but demand concerns sent prices falling as the day progressed. . Rising Iranian oil imports into China had forced other producers, including Russia, Angola, and Brazil, to cut the prices of their crude in order to keep it competitive. The shale boom resulted in a boom for landmen, who find, sell and flip tracts of land to drillers. These days, more landmen arepivoting to renewables. BP ) said it would spend $1.3 billion to build more pipelines in order to capture natural gas in an effort to end flaring in the Permian by 2025.. The inventory buildup during the pandemic is nearing normalization, according to Bloomberg. “Commercial oil inventories across the OECD are already back down to their five-year average,” said Ed Morse, head of commodities research at Citigroup Inc. “What’s left of the surplus is almost entirely concentrated in China, which has been building a permanent petroleum reserve.” IEA expects global greenhouse gas emissions to surge by 4.6% this year, one of the largest annual increases ever recorded. “This is a dire warning that the economic recovery from the Covid crisis is currently anything but sustainable for our climate,” said Fatih Birol, IEA’s executive director, in a statement. The Biden administration is hosting an international climate summit this week, where the U.S. will unveil new climate targets and attempt to woo other nations in stepping up their ambition. Oil industry looks to carbon offsets for each barrel. Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY)has tested the practice of offsetting the carbon that each barrel of its oil holds. Sources told Reuters that Occidental paid $1.3 million in offsets for a shipload of crude, which added about 65 cents per barrel. The company has marketed its oil as carbon-neutral.
Oil drops from one-month highs on demand fears as virus surges in India (Reuters) - Crude futures settled lower on Tuesday, pulling back from one-month highs, on fears that India, the world's third-biggest oil importer, may impose restrictions as coronavirus infections and deaths surge to record highs. Oil prices have risen steadily this year on anticipation that demand would recover, but while the United States and China are rebounding, numerous other countries are not. "Unless major progress is seen beyond the key industrialized nations such as the U.S., the pandemic factor could require some downward adjustments in global oil demand expectations for this year," said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Illinois. India, the world's second most populous country and currently the hardest hit by COVID-19, reported its worst daily death toll on Tuesday, with large parts of the country now under lockdown amid a fast-rising second surge of contagion.[nL1N2MD06P] India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged citizens to take precautions to halt the spread of COVID-19, but stopped short of imposing lockdowns. Restrictions continue to hamper travel worldwide. Hong Kong will suspend flights from India, Pakistan and the Philippines from April 20 for two weeks. Brent crude settled down 48 cents, or 0.7%, at $66.57 a barrel. During the session it reached its highest since March 18 at $68.08. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 94 cents, or 1.5%, to $62.44. Crude prices rallied earlier in the session after Libya declared force majeure on exports from the port of Hariga and said it could extend the measure to other facilities, citing a budget dispute. Hariga is scheduled to load about 180,000 barrels per day (bpd) in April. Libya's production was hit last year after eastern-based forces in that country's civil war blockaded oil terminals. Overall, oil prices have recovered from historic lows last year spurred by the onset of the pandemic, helped by some demand recovery and huge output cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+. A year ago today, WTI sank to minus-$40 due to a massive glut.
WTI Rebounds After Gasoline Demand Jumps, Despite Crude Build - Oil prices are lower this morning, but well off the plunge lows (below $61 for WTI) seen ahead of the US cash equity open as01 and ongoing demand fears from India (and China) weighed on prices.All eyes will be not only on the inventories but also on demand (as gasoline and diesel demand has shown new gains). API
- Crude +436k (-4.4mm exp)
- Cushing -1.286mm
- Gasoline -1.617mm (+800k exp)
- Distillates +655k (-1.3mm exp)
DOE
- Crude +594k (-4.4mm exp)
- Cushing -1.318mm
- Gasoline +85k (+800k exp)
- Distillates -1.073mm (-1.3mm exp)
Analysts expected a 4th weekly crude draw (and were thrown by API's unexpected build) but the official data also showed a build (albeit a modest 594k)... Graphics Source: Bloomberg Gasoline demand continued to recover to its highest since March 2020... US Crude production remains "disciplined" still as rig counts and prices remain supportive... WTI hovered just below $62 ahead of the official data release and held that rebound after the print.
Oil prices drop on U.S. crude build, rising Covid cases in India -- Oil prices on Wednesday fell for a second day to their lowest in a week on a surprise build in U.S. crude inventories and concerns surging COVID-19 cases in India will drive down fuel demand in the world's third-biggest oil importer. Brent futures fell $1.30, or 2.0%, to $65.27 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for June settled 2.11%, or $1.32, lower at $61.35 per barrel. That puts both benchmarks on track for their lowest closes since April 13. "Oil prices are declining today as ... bearish developments forced traders to ignore a partial but bullish Libyan force majeure on exports," said Louise Dickson, oil markets analyst at Rystad Energy. She pointed to the build of in U.S. crude inventories and a continuous rise of COVID-19 infections in India and other countries. India, the world's third-largest oil user, on Wednesday reported another record increase in the daily death toll from COVID-19. U.S. crude oil stockpiles unexpectedly edged higher last week, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, confirming data by the American Petroleum Institute the day before. Crude inventories rose by 594,000 barrels in the week to April 16 to 493 million barrels, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 3 million-barrel drop. U.S. East Coast inventories, however, fell to a record low at 7.9 million barrels. Raising the possibility of further oil supply, Iran and world powers have made headway in talks to save a 2015 nuclear accord, which, if successful, could see sanctions lifted and more Iranian barrels return to the market. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies including Russia, a group known as OPEC+, are heading for a largely technical meeting next week where major changes to policy are unlikely, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak and OPEC+ sources said. Novak said on Wednesday the group may confirm or tweak output plans following its decision to ease production curbs. In Libya, meanwhile, the country's National Oil Corp (NOC) declared force majeure on Monday on exports from the port of Hariga and said it could extend the measure to other facilities due to a budget dispute with the country's central bank.
Oil steady as Libya output decline offsets risks to Asian demand — Oil prices were little changed on Thursday as concerns over lower crude production in Libya offset expectations that rising coronavirus cases in India and Japan would cause energy demand to decline. Brent futures edged up 8 cents, or 0.1%, to settle at $65.40 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 8 cents, or 0.1%, to end at $61.43. Libya said its oil production fell to about 1 million barrels per day in recent days and could drop further due to budgetary issues. “The market realized that a global come-back in oil demand cannot come without a come-back of the world’s largest economies,” India, the world’s third-largest oil user, on Thursday reported the world’s highest daily increase to date with 314,835 new coronavirus cases. Indian Oil Corp Ltd’s (IOC) refineries are operating at about 95% of their capacity, down from 100% at the same time last month, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. Japan, the world’s No.4 oil importer, is expected to announce a third wave of lockdowns affecting Tokyo and three western prefectures, media reported. Underlying bearish sentiment was also stoked by progress on talks between Iran and world powers to resurrect the 2015 nuclear accord, Any increase in supply from Iran would be on top of extra barrels already expected from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, including Russia, a group known as OPEC+, which plans to bring back about 2 million bpd of production over the next three months. OPEC+ members are due to meet next week but major changes to production policy are unlikely, Russia’s deputy prime minister and OPEC+ sources said. The European Central Bank, meanwhile, left policy unchanged as expected, keeping copious stimulus flowing even as it predicted a rebound in the euro zone economy in the coming months as pandemic restrictions are lifted. In the United States, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell to a 13-month low last week. But while the labor market recovery is gaining speed, red flags are emerging in the housing market with sales of previously-owned homes down to a seven-month low in March. Longer term, oil demand is expected to take a hit as more countries adopt policies to combat climate change. The United States and other countries hiked their targets for slashing greenhouse gas emissions at a global climate summit hosted by President Joe Biden, an event meant to resurrect U.S. leadership in the fight against global warming.
Oil edges higher as recovery support countered by Asia virus surge — Oil settled higher on Friday, supported by bullish economic data from U.S. and Europe, though a rise in coronavirus cases in India was still pressuring prices. Brent crude settled up 77 cents, 1.1%, to $66.11 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) U.S. crude gained 71 cents, or 1.2%, to $62.14 a barrel. Changing customer demands guide Volvo toward an electrified future For the week, both benchmark crudes fell about 1% due to the resurgence of infections in India and Japan, the world’s third and fourth largest oil importers. “This price consolidation follows a strong four-month price advance that was largely predicated on U.S. vaccine progress that forced some upward revisions in global demand ideas across this year,” Euro zone Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for April showed a stronger-than-expected recovery and more European states began easing coronavirus lockdowns. France said schools would reopen on Monday. U.S. data added to the upbeat outlook; the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell to a 13-month low last week. “The PMIs across Europe were really off the charts, especially following the strong unemployment report in the U.S.,” U.S. energy firms cut the number of oil rigs operating for the first time since March, as rigs fell by one to 438 this week, according to energy services firm Baker Hughes Co. Before this week, drillers added rigs for five weeks in a row and has been up 80% since falling to a record low of 244 in August 2020. Oil demand concerns weighed as India’s coronavirus cases surged to record highs. Several countries, including Australia, Britain, Canada, and the United Arab Emirates have barred or cut flights from India.
Oil Futures Down for the Week - -- Oil fell this week with spreading coronavirus cases in countries such as India tempering optimism around positive signs out of the U.S. and Europe. Futures in New York rose the most in over a week on Friday, but were unable to reverse a 1.6% weekly loss as the market weighed a global economic reopening that’s coming in fits and starts. The U.S. has remained near the forefront of the world’s budding demand recovery from the pandemic, and the latest manufacturing figures out of Europe have stoked optimism around a recovery there. However, India has been setting record numbers of daily coronavirus cases, threatening demand in the world’s third-largest oil importer. The country’s diesel and gasoline consumption could fall by a fifth this month, and traders said the nation’s largest refiner had refrained from buying West African oil this week, defying expectations. Oil is up almost 30% this year, but prices have struggled to reach new heights recently with the coronavirus situation deteriorating in some key oil consuming countries. India’s combined consumption of diesel and gasoline is poised to plunge by as much as 20% in April from a month earlier due to renewed restrictions, according to officials from refiners and fuel retailers. Meanwhile, Japan is facing an increase in cases and a state of emergency will be declared from Sunday to May 11 in cities including Tokyo. “In the short-term, the market is facing an uneven recovery in demand,” “With concerns around India and Japan, which are two of the top five consumers of petroleum products, the market is trying to gauge where we’re going on demand.” WTI for June delivery rose 71 cents to settle at $62.14 a barrel. Brent for the same month gained 71 cents to settle at $66.11 a barrel. The contract fell nearly 1% over the week. While India has so far avoided re-entering a nationwide lockdown, the demand impact would be comparable to the one faced during last year’s initial wave were it to do so, Cornerstone Macro analysts Jan Stuart and Thomas Marchetti said in a note. Still, prices have averted further losses, aided by the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines and vigilant supply management from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies. OPEC+ is set to start easing deep supply curbs from May, and the group is expected to hold a full ministerial meeting next week to assess the global state of play. Adding to daily gains on Friday was a string of robust economic data out of the U.S. New-home sales in the country rebounded in March to the highest since 2006, while a composite gauge of output at manufacturers and service providers reached a record high in April. The U.S. dollar weakened on Friday, boosting the appeal of commodities priced in the currency, while the S&P 500 Index climbed.
Chad’s French-backed President Idriss Déby dies fighting opposition militia - Chadian President Marshal Idriss Déby Itno died yesterday from wounds sustained Monday while fighting the rebel Force for Change and Concord in Chad (FACT) militia in northern Chad. His son Mahamat Idriss Déby, aged 37, seized power at the head of a military commission staffed with 15 hand-picked generals. Military spokesman General Azem Bermandoa Agouna issued a communiqué yesterday, declaring: “The president of the republic, the head of state and supreme commander of the armies, Idriss Déby Itno, just breathed his last breath while defending our territorial integrity on the battlefield. It is with deep sadness that we are announcing to the Chadian people the passing on this Tuesday, April 20, 2021 of the marshal of Chad.” It added that Déby, “like each time our republican institutions are gravely threatened, led operations in heroic struggles against the terrorist hordes come from Libya. Wounded in the struggle, he passed away once returned to N’Djamena,” the country’s capital. Déby, who ruled Chad with an iron fist for 30 years after seizing power in a French-backed coup in 1990, was a longstanding tool of French imperialism. Hosting French and US troops at strategic bases at N’Djamena in the heart of the Sahel, Chad’s geopolitical importance surged after the bloody 2011 NATO war in Libya, which toppled Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, in alliance with Islamist militias. Chad’s army has provided troops for French military operations in Nigeria and across the Sahel, including in Niger and Burkina Faso, amid the French war in Mali. Déby’s death comes amid a deepening crisis of French imperialist strategy in the Sahel, shortly after French President Emmanuel Macron rejected mounting calls in February for a withdrawal of French troops from Mali and the region. The Elysée presidential palace in Paris issued a statement endorsing the illegal seizure of power by Déby’s son and praising Déby as a “courageous friend” of France, who “worked ceaselessly for the security of his country and the stability of the region for three decades.” It stressed “the importance that the transition take place in peaceful conditions, in a spirit of dialog with all political actors and civil society, allowing for a rapid return to inclusive governance based on civilian institutions.” This effectively endorsed the moves of Mahamat Déby and the army chiefs, who extra-legally dissolved the National Assembly and announced an 18-month military dictatorship.
France joins “Asian Quad” Indian Ocean naval drills, threatening China - On April 5-7, for the first time, Indian as well as Japanese and Australian warships took part in a French naval exercise codenamed “La Pérouse,” in the Bay of Bengal. This provocative drill took place after a March summit and naval drills by the anti-Chinese “Asian Quad” alliance of the United States, India, Japan and Australia, as well as visits to India by US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin and South Korean Defence Minister Suh Wook. During the “La Pérouse” exercise, warships carried out 90 drills including helicopter and resupply operations. Another Indian-French naval war game, the Varuna exercise, is scheduled for April 25-27. Arnaud Tranchant, the captain of France’s amphibious assault ship Tonnerre, which headed the “La Pérouse” drill, told Indian media it aimed to strengthen interoperability between the two navies. Indian Navy Spokesperson Commander Vivek Madhwal said, “Participation by the Indian Navy in the exercise demonstrates the shared values with friendly navies ensuring freedom of seas and commitment to an open, inclusive Indo-Pacific and a rules-based international order.” These drills highlight mounting war tensions as the Biden administration takes office and calls on the European Union (EU) to “work together” with Washington against alleged “expansionist” Chinese policies in Asia. Last year, the “Quad” countries carried out “Malabar” naval exercises in the Bay of Bengal. Now, as the EU powers continue boosting their collective military spending amid the pandemic, even after it hit $300 billion in 2019, they are also developing an aggressive policy in Asia. These exercises are in line with a new strategy document recently rolled out by French armed forces chief General Thierry Burkhard, signalling a turn by French imperialism to preparations for large-scale “state against state” wars. “The world is evolving quickly enough and badly enough,” he said, pointing to growing conflicts and “uninhibited re-militarisation.” The army “imagined a situation in 2035 … But in 2020, a certain number of check-boxes are already ticked.” France now confronted “the end of a stage of conflicts” involving wars in the Sahel and Afghanistan, in which French forces enjoyed overwhelming military superiority against the targeted populations. The army expects new, “symmetric” conflicts, Burkhard said, “state against state,” that is, between major, nuclear-armed powers.
UK sends warships to the Black Sea, targeting Russia -The UK is deploying warships to the Black Sea next month, further ratcheting up provocations by the United States and its stooge regime in Ukraine against Russia. Russia has amassed substantial forces near the Ukrainian border, after the Ukraine regime endorsed a strategy to “recover” Crimea. The strategically vital peninsular was annexed by Russia following the US and European Union (EU) backed far-right 2014 coup in Kiev. A spokesperson for the Ministry of Defence told the Times, “The UK and our international allies are unwavering in our support for Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity.” The Royal Navy Type 45 Destroyer, HMS Defender. HMS Defender is the fifth of the Navy’s six £1 billion Type 45 destroyer (credit: Open Government Licence) They added, “We are working closely with Ukraine to monitor the current situation and continue to call on Russia to de-escalate. “Our armed forces continue to support Ukraine through our training mission Operation Orbital, which has trained over 20,000 members of the armed forces of Ukraine, and the UK-led Maritime Training Initiative.” Britain is sending a Type 45 destroyer, equipped with anti-aircraft missiles, and an anti-submarine Type 23 frigate. F-35B Lightning stealth jets and Merlin helicopters based on the HMS Queen Elizabeth aircraft carrier will be on standby to provide support—an international treaty currently prohibits aircraft carriers themselves from entering the Black Sea, although this arrangement is under threat . The UK already has special forces and Royal Air Force (RAF) aircraft deployed to the region. An SAS special forces team and Royal Signals electronic unit were officially sent to Ukraine last week, alongside a US special operations team, to “monitor Russian activity”. Six RAF Typhoon jets, armed with Paveway bombs and Brimstone missiles, have been despatched to Romania as part of a NATO “air policing mission” to patrol the Black Sea region. These developments make clear that US President Joe Biden’s decision to cancel the deployment of two American warships to the region last week was a tactical pause in a still escalating conflict. Russia responded to the news that US warships were on their way with a statement warning of a high likelihood of serious “incidents”. Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov said, “There is absolutely nothing for American ships to be doing near our shores, this is purely a provocative action. Provocative in the direct sense of the word: they are testing our strength... They will not succeed. “We warn the United States that it will be better for them to stay far away from Crimea and our Black Sea coast. It will be for their own good.” There are currently more than a dozen Russian naval vessels on deployment in the Black Sea. Fifty Russian fighter jets, bombers and attack aircraft are engaged in “exercises over the Black Sea”, according to Russian news organisation Interfax, including “missile launches and bombardment of naval targets.” The Russian air force and Black Sea fleet are also scheduled to carry out joint exercises designed to “ensure security in the Black Sea”.
Pandemic produced a “catastrophic year” for Middle East and North Africa -- Recent reports testify to the catastrophic impact of the pandemic in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and the implications for social and political unrest. Launching Amnesty International’s annual report, Heba Morayef said that the pandemic had exposed the terrible legacy of divisive and destructive policies that had perpetuated inequality, discrimination and oppression and paved the way for the devastation wrought by COVID-19. The year 2020 “was a catastrophic year for prisoners, refugees, migrants and minorities who are already marginalized and due to COVID-19 have found their situation more precarious than ever. The pandemic has amplified divisions, discrimination and inequalities that already exist in the region.” The region, home to enormous energy resources that have enriched a tiny, ultra-reactionary layer, has been devastated by decades of wars, conflicts, imperialist interventions, and sanctions, orchestrated by the US and its European and regional allies. Millions of people have been made homeless, forced to live in refugee camps or internally displaced people’s (IDP) camps where even the most basic facilities are lacking. Some 5.8 million refugees and 6.8 million IDPs are children, many going without schooling. The pandemic has inflicted a horrendous toll, with more than 7.3 million recorded cases and 150,000 fatalities, a pale reflection of the real losses and suffering given the lack of testing and recording systems. Iran has been by far the worst affected, recording around 65,000 deaths, while Iraq and Egypt have recorded about 15,000 and 12,500. Across the region, the authorities have used the pandemic as a pretext to increase the exploitation of the working class, silence criticism and suppress dissent. Employers have laid off hundreds of thousands of workers. In Egypt, tens of thousands of private sector workers were dismissed, forced to accept reduced wages, work without protective equipment, or take unpaid leave. Workers and trade unionists have faced arrest for going on strike. In Jordan, renewed protests by teachers broke out last August over the government’s decision to freeze public sector pay due to the pandemic. The government dispatched the police to raid 13 union branches and arrest dozens, while a court ordered the dissolution of the teachers’ union.
Turkish government rejects lockdown as pandemic spins out of control - As a result of the “herd immunity” policies implemented by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s government in the interests of the ruling class, the COVID-19 pandemic in Turkey is out of control. Turkey has become an epicenter of the pandemic, like India and Brazil. According to Health Minister Fahrettin Koca, at least 85 percent of new cases in the country are due to the more contagious UK or B.1.1.7 variant. Despite limited measures announced on April 13, the number of daily cases remains over 60,000, sometimes more than in the United States. Proportionally to its population, Turkey (85 million) has more than tripled the rate of reported cases compared to India (1.4 billion people and nearly 300,000 daily cases). The test positivity rate is nearly 20 percent. According to Ministry of Health data, 362 people died on Wednesday. These figures vastly underestimate true losses. While Turkey has surpassed the United Kingdom in terms of total number of cases with nearly 4.4 million, at 37,000 deaths it seems far behind countries like the UK (127,000), France (102,000) and Italy (118,000) in total mortality. According to investigative filmmaker Güçlü Yaman’s calculations, however, there had been 98,000 excess deaths in Turkey by early March 2021. Last week, an anonymous physician caring for coronavirus patients in Istanbul told the daily Cumhuriyet: “Even if a PCR test is positive, COVID-19 is not written on the death certificate if the intensive care patient dies after an average of 15-20 days after he/she tested positive.” This ongoing slaughter is the direct result of the Turkish ruling class seeing mass deaths and the sickness of millions as “acceptable.” As the pandemic erupted out of control as the predictable consequence of the “opening up” policy in early March, the Erdoğan government announced last week limited measures to calm growing social anger and prevent a collapse of the health care system. However, it kept nonessential production and some grades in schools open. “In the economy, things are going very well on the production side,” Erdoğan blithely declared, claiming that his government has been very successful against the pandemic. He made clear that businesses’ profits and competitiveness in global markets guided his government’s response to the pandemic, not saving lives. “We need to reduce the numbers of infections below the general average in the world, especially in countries with which we have close relations. Otherwise, we may run the risk of not being able to take advantage of economic opportunities brought before us by the pandemic.” The impact of the “gradual normalization” policy in early March is quite clear. The number of COVID-19 deaths in Turkey was 66 on February 28, when the number of seriously ill patients fell to 1,191. However, the official daily death toll has risen six-fold to nearly 400, while the number of seriously ill patients surged to 3,400. The government rejected calls from health experts and scientists to close down nonessential production for 28 days, strengthen social distancing measures and accelerate vaccination. It adopted limited measures, like starting curfews at 7:00 p.m. rather than 9:00 p.m. on weekdays. However, almost all workers are exempted from curfews so nonessential production can continue. Restaurants and cafés cannot accept customers inside until May 16.
Philippine government eases lockdown amid continued COVID surge - Beginning April 12, the Philippine government lowered the lockdown over Metro Manila, the national capital region, and the four adjacent provinces of Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna and Rizal, to the second highest level. The order rejected the advice of medical experts to extend the stricter protocol imposed on March 29 amid a COVID-19 surge. With infections at over 900,000 and rising at ten to twelve thousand a day, the highest rate since the pandemic began more than a year ago, the decision to lift restrictions is a death sentence to thousands of Filipino people. The fatality rate for COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila rose over the past month from 1.82 percent to 5.36 percent. In the 11 days preceding the decision, confirmed new cases in the quarantined capital and provinces rose to 53,714. This is a severe under-count. Contact tracing was already at an abysmally low three contacts traced for every infected person since March, and only four out of 17 cities in the National Capital Region were in compliance with government’s contact tracing protocols. Now tracing has all but collapsed inside the lockdown area as President Rodrigo Duterte’s administration scrambled to hire 5,000 contact tracers for the capital. Moreover, the positivity rate averaged 20 percent nationwide, indicating a dangerous increase in community transmission and the spread of the virus. The testing rate is one of the lowest in the world, just ahead of Indonesia, Bangladesh and Pakistan, where the virus is out of control. While the government is targeting 50,000 a day, and largely not meeting its target, the positivity rate indicates that the required testing should be at least 200,000 a day to be able to trace the spread of the virus. The COVID-19 surge in the national capital and the provinces has flooded the COVID-19 allocated capacity of hospitals, both public and private, and the isolation centres. According to Rappler, as of April 12, of the 14 hospitals it checked across Metro Manila and Cavite, 310 COVID-19 infected patients were waiting for beds and were being treated in the emergency departments. Some have been reported to have died waiting for a vacant ICU or isolation bed. A story published by ABS-CBN in late March is doubtless representative of the state of the crisis. The account detailed how a COVID-infected father died in the early hours of the morning outside a hospital emergency room “after hours of frantic search for any hospital that would accept COVID-19 patients.” In a tweet, Angelo Barrera stated: “My brother was wailing and crying outside with my mother in shock and unresponsive next to him. My dad died in the cold.”
Indonesia to restrict foreign travellers from India over COVID-19 variant (Reuters) - Indonesia will stop issuing visas for foreigners who have been in India in the past 14 days to prevent the spread of different coronavirus strains, a government minister said on Friday. India is facing a health crisis, including the impact of a "double mutant" strain of COVID-19, with the country posting the world's highest single-day increase in cases on Friday for a second day, surpassing 330,000 infections. "Based on these observations, the government has decided to stop issuing visas for foreigners who have lived or visited India in the past 14 days," chief economic minister Airlangga Hartarto said on Friday. The curbs follow the arrival in Indonesia of a chartered flight from Chennai carrying 129 people, 12 of which had tested positive for COVID-19. Samples had been taken for genomic sequencing, said health minister, Budi Gunadi Sadikin. "Lots of people still enter Indonesia," he said. "We must be careful of those entering from South Asian countries." Indonesians arriving from India will be allowed to enter, however, but must follow stricter health protocols and quarantine. Indonesia, the world's fourth-most populous nation, has among the worst COVID-19 epidemics in Asia, with over 1.62 million cases and 44,000 deaths as of Thursday.
Pakistan brings in army to battle COVID-19 - Pakistan on Friday announced to bring the army on roads and markets to fight COVID-19 as infections spike in the country. Announcing the decision after a high-level meeting of the National Command and Operation Center (NCOC), which monitors the country's anti-virus strategy, in the capital Islamabad, Prime Minister Imran Khan said that now the army will also deploy along with police to implement the anti-virus strategy. "I have issued directives to deploy army along with other law-enforcement agencies to implement the SOPs [standard operating procedures]," Khan said. He warned that the government would lockdown the major cities if people avoid to follow SOPs, especially by not wearing masks. Currently, the South Asian nation of over 200 million people are witnessing a significant increase in infections and deaths as the country has been facing a third wave since last month. On Friday, the NCOC briefed the prime minister over its plan to control the spread of the virus, and also suggested lockdown in major cities. But Khan rejected the suggestion of immediate lockdown and said such action would adversely affect the country's economy and the poor segments of the society. "I don't want to go for a complete lockdown of the major cities as it would affect our economy but if people don't follow the SOPs then we will have no other way, except complete lockdown," Khan said.
Australia: Northern Territory Labor government pushing harsher bail laws for children - In the latest of a series of “law and order” measures, the Northern Territory (NT) Labor Party government announced last month plans to introduce more stringent bail conditions for children, including those who have been convicted of petty offences. In this, Labor is collaborating closely with the Country Liberal opposition. Chief Minister Michael Gunner outlined “tougher than ever” repercussions for children aged 10-17 who breach bail conditions or re-offend while on bail. The government also plans to increase the number of offences for youth where bail may not be granted. “Bail is a privilege, not a right,” Gunner provocatively stated. The proposed measures would overturn limited reforms made to the Youth Justice Act and Bail Act in response to the findings of the 2017 Royal Commission into the Detention and Protection of Children in the Northern Territory. The Royal Commission was called as an exercise in damage control after a 2016 “Four Corners” program revealed the systemic abuse of children in juvenile prisons, particularly the Don Dale Youth Detention Centre. Footage in the episode showed guards beating detainees. One child was placed in a “spit garb” for hours, reminiscent of the brutal devices used against inmates at the US military prison on Guantanamo Bay. Guards and police had also responded with brutality to disturbances at Don Dale, which were branded as riots.
São Paulo reopens schools, eases restrictions amid mass COVID-19 deaths - São Paulo began a new phase of easing measures against the spread of the coronavirus yesterday after having recorded the deadliest week of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil’s most populous and wealthiest state. Last week, the government of right-wing Governor João Doria (PSDB) also allowed public and private schools to partially reopen for in-person classes. The new “transitional” phase, between the “red” and “orange” phases of the supposed pandemic containment plan, the São Paulo Plan, will allow the reopening of nonessential businesses between 11 a.m. and 7 p.m. and the holding of in-person religious ceremonies, both with a maximum capacity of 25 percent. From April 24 on, gyms, bars and restaurants will be allowed to reopen under the same criteria. It was the second week in a row that the Doria government updated the São Paulo Plan after the state spent 28 days in the “emergency” phase, between March 15 and April 9, in which even services considered “essential” were restricted. The main justification for these changes was a slight decrease in ICU bed occupancy rates in recent weeks. On April 9, when the state moved from the “emergency” to the “red” phase, the rate was 88.3 percent, dropping to 85.3 percent on Friday, when the “transitional” phase was announced. Domingos Alves, a professor at the University of São Paulo, told AFP that this change “is absurd. How are these new flexibilization measures announced when everything indicates that next week or the week after we’ll have a shortage of supplies to keep people inside the hospitals?” He referred to the lack of medications needed to intubate patients in many hospitals in São Paulo, which is causing many of them to refuse new patients even with available beds. Since March, 543 patients have died waiting for an ICU bed in the state. After recording 1,282 deaths last Tuesday, the third deadliest day of the pandemic, last week ended with a record 5,690 COVID-19 deaths, a number almost three times higher than at the peak of the first wave in July. It is the eighth week in a row with an increase in deaths, which has led to the number of deaths in Sao Paulo surpassing the number of births for the first time in history. São Paulo, which has 21 percent of the Brazilian population, accounts for 28 percent of the deaths in Brazil. The country, in turn, has registered 25 percent of the deaths in the world. By Saturday, the state had recorded a total of 88,000 deaths and 2.7 million cases. These figures demolish all attempts by São Paulo’s millionaire governor, who claims to be guided by “science” in fighting the pandemic, to differentiate himself from the open herd immunity policy of Brazil’s fascistic President Jair Bolsonaro. Having deemed a number of services “essential”—including industry and several business sectors—since the beginning of the pandemic in March of last year, Doria’s policy of putting profits above human lives led São Paulo’s GDP to grow by 0.4 percent in 2020, compared with a 4.1 percent drop in the national GDP.
Brazilian workers stage strikes and protests against COVID-19 pandemic and social crisis -- Workers have staged strikes and protests across Brazil against the murderous, uncontrolled spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and the ensuing social crisis that has driven tens of millions into poverty. The weeks-long strikes by teachers in São Paulo against deadly school reopenings are being joined by a growing number of work stoppages by bus drivers, oil and railway workers, delivery app workers and other sectors as Brazil has recorded nearly 14 million coronavirus infections and a staggering 375,000 deaths. Bus drivers have staged work stoppages in a number of state capitals. While the National Confederation of Transportation and Logistics Workers (CNTTL) union has sought to isolate these struggles, it has been forced to call a nationwide “health strike” today. Meanwhile, some 1,700 oil workers at the President Getúlio Vargas refinery (Repar) in the state of Paraná, went on strike April 12 against a plan to bring in 2,000 workers from the across the country for nonessential maintenance work. A similar operation in March at the Gabriel Passos Refinery (Regap), in the state of Minas Gerais, resulted in a coronavirus outbreak that led to at least 200 infections and five deaths. A study by the National Amazonian Studies Institute (INPA) predicted that, given Brazil’s current infection rates, sending 2,000 workers into Repar would trigger an outbreak resulting in at least one additional death every day in the city of Araucária. Yesterday, in the face of skyrocketing infections on crowded offshore oil rigs, the São Paulo Coastline Oil Workers Union (Sindipetro-LP) called a “state of strike and permanent assembly,” stopping short of a complete shutdown of rigs. The action was triggered by a planned change in work schedules by the state-run Petrobras energy conglomerate, which is introducing speedups under the guise of reducing infections. São Paulo’s coastline oil operations employ 900 workers and have the capacity to extract more than 1.3 million barrels of oil a day. Increased militancy fueled by the combined impact of COVID-19 deaths and the social crisis has also brought app delivery workers employed by tech giants such as iFood and Uber Eats into action. Last Friday, thousands of delivery workers stopped work and paraded through the streets of São Paulo, being greeted with applause from truck drivers and hospital workers as they rode down the city’s main thoroughfares.
Brazil’s defense minister issues threat over probe into Bolsonaro’s handling of COVID-19 pandemic - The swearing-in of the new commander of the Brazilian army on Tuesday was marked by a threat of military intervention to halt any attempt to hold fascistic President Jair Bolsonaro accountable for mass COVID deaths. The main speech at the ceremony, delivered by the newly sworn-in defense minister, Gen. Walter Braga Netto, warned that the armed forces are ready to act to secure Bolsonaro’s reactionary project. “The moment requires a greater effort at national unity, with a focus on fighting the pandemic and supporting vaccinations. Today, the country needs to be united against any kind of institutional destabilization initiative that alters the balance of power and harms Brazil’s prosperity,” Braga Netto announced. The defense minister continued: “Those who believe we are on fertile ground for initiatives that could jeopardize the freedom won by our nation are mistaken. We must respect the democratic rite and the project chosen by the majority of Brazilians to guide the destiny of the country. The society, attentive to these actions, may rest assured that its armed forces are ready to serve the national interests.” These words expose the fraud of the political narrative promoted by the bourgeois media, the Workers Party (PT) and its pseudo-left allies that Bolsonaro’s dictatorial moves are nothing more than an “authoritarian delirium,” and that his sacking of the entire military high command on March 30 only reinforced the generals’ commitment to democracy. Such political forces point to the growing opposition of sections of the bourgeoisie and the military to the government as a guarantee against Bolsonaro’s dictatorial threats. The launching of a Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry (CPI) that will investigate Bolsonaro’s criminal response to the COVID-19 pandemic, which has seriously deepened the crisis of his administration, has only reinforced these arguments. The pandemic in Brazil is spiraling out of control, with over 3,000 deaths a day. The country has now recorded over 14 million infections and more than 381,000 deaths. The CPI is expected to target the government’s deliberate promotion of mass infection of the population, sabotage of vaccinations, and promotion of potentially harmful drugs like chloroquine as quack cures for the deadly virus. The investigation increases the possibility of impeachment proceedings being opened against Bolsonaro.
Coronavirus Surge Spills Over Into World’s Financial Markets - Financial markets around the world are waking up to the risks of another coronavirus flare-up. Asian markets, blighted by rising cases from Japan to India, have underperformed their global peers since the start of March, just when they looked set to benefit from an acceleration in the global recovery. Currencies of nations stung by the virus have been underperforming those where vaccinations are surging ahead. And now the angst is starting to spread, with recovery trades under pressure and U.S. stocks sliding for two successive days. “Markets that have become too comfortable with the re-opening trade and have loosened social restrictions can be in jeopardy with any Covid spike and variants,” said Paul Sandhu, head of multi-asset quant solutions Asia Pacific at BNP Paribas Asset Management. “Markets with high vaccination rates somewhat circumvent this downside risk.” The World Health Organization said Tuesday that cases are rising in all regions except Europe, with the largest increase last week seen in Asia as India battles its biggest wave. Japan moved closer to declaring a virus emergency as infections spread in its two-biggest and economically important urban areas, Tokyo and Osaka, while health authorities in Toronto will order workplaces across Canada’s biggest city to close if they have more than five confirmed cases. The MSCI AC World Index has fallen every day this week after closing at a record high last Friday. Investors are facing the latest wave of the virus with valuations significantly higher than they were before the pandemic. The virus resurgence “might test global assets except those where vaccine rollouts are very advanced,” said Joshua Crabb, a senior money manager at Robeco in Hong Kong. “Clearly new strains are more virulent and may requires booster shots for those already vaccinated.” On the currency front, investors have been seeking out havens like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc this week, and rewarding those with better track records of managing the outbreak such as the Israeli shekel and Taiwanese dollar. The Indian rupee has been the worst-performing currency in Asia as the new wave of infections threatens a nascent economic revival. Stocks were set for their biggest decline in about a month in Asia Wednesday, with Japanese shares among the worst performers. U.S. stock futures were mixed as the rotation away from pandemic favorites gained ground. “The virus resurgence in India and Japan appeared to be the main driver behind the selling in Asia-Pacific equities today,” “The reflation trade appears to have taken a pause, giving way to safe-havens and defensive names.”
Weak Lending in Europe Hampers Covid-19 Recovery – WSJ - Demand for business loans in the eurozone fell and banks tightened credit standards in the first quarter of this year, a toxic combination that challenges the bloc’s slow economic recovery from the pandemic.According to the European Central Bank’s latest lending survey released Tuesday, demand from companies for loans and credit lines fell for the third quarter in a row. The ECB said businesses seem to be postponing investments, as the pandemic triggers fresh lockdowns and other restrictions in many parts of Europe.European companies tend to rely more heavily on bank lending than U.S. counterparts. That makes demand and supply of loans a key gauge of the health of the region’s economy, and one closely followed by the ECB when setting its monetary policy.The dour survey weighed on financial markets Tuesday. An index of eurozone bank shares dropped by more than 2%. Yields on benchmark German 10-year bunds slipped to minus 0.25% from minus 0.24% a day earlier.“When there is less appetite from the supply side with banks not wanting to expose themselves to the domestic economy, and from the demand side where the companies have no visibility on when the economy will open, that’s not a good recipe for an economy reliant on the banking system,” said Shaniel Ramjee, a multiasset fund manager at Pictet Asset Management.The sluggish lending will be seen as a frustration for the ECB, which has unleashed massive stimulus into the economy through bond buying, cheap lending to banks and negative interest rates, as a way to counteract the effects of the pandemic. It accelerated its bond buying program in March, in part to lean against tightening credit conditions.The ECB’s policy-making committee meets Thursday, where it isn’t expected to make changes. The tightening of credit conditions in the first quarter puts the eurozone further away from a quick recovery to pre-pandemic levels, Bert Colijn, a senior economist at ING, said.Philip Lane, the ECB’s chief economist, has warned in the past about risks of a “mutually-reinforcing adverse loop,” under which banks see dwindling loan demand as a negative signal about the state of the economy, and companies see their concern confirmed by a tightening of borrowing conditions.The central bank’s survey showed banks tightened their lending guidelines and approval criteria for new loans to businesses in the first quarter, although the tightening was less sharp than in the previous two quarters. Actual terms set on approved loans remained unchanged from the fourth quarter. The ECB said margins on average loans narrowed because of competition among lenders, although margins on riskier loans widened.For the second quarter, banks expect a similar tightening of credit standards, while demand is expected to increase as companies struggle to pay bills during renewed lockdowns, the ECB said.
Europe’s Eminence Grise, BlackRock, Is Helping to Write Europe’s Sustainable Banking Rules. What Could Go Wrong? -- When things get serious in Europe and new financial rules, regulations or bailouts are needed, the first phone number to call is invariably that of BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager. That is exactly what the European Commission did when it needed to create new environmental standards for Euro-Area banks: it called BlackRock’s Financial Markets Advisory (FMA) unit. Which means that at the same time that BlackRock is launching some of the world’s biggest environmental, social and governance (ESG) investing funds for its clients — many of the world’s passive investors — it is also helping to create the new ESG investing rules by which Europe’s biggest banks and energy companies, many of whose shares it manages, will have to operate.Much like Goldman Sachs did in the noughties and to a certain extent continues to do today, BlackRock has spread its tentacles across Europe’s political landscape, by spending lavishly on lobbying efforts and snapping up well-connected retired politicians and central bank officials. They include the former Chairman of the Swiss National Bank’s governing board, Philipp Hildebrand, and former U.K. Treasury head George Osborne. But the Commission’s latest decision to hire BlackRock has drawn disapproval from EU Ombudsman Emily O’Reilly. Green banking is an “area of financial and regulatory interest” to BlackRock, O’Reilly pointed out in a statement on Monday. And BlackRock’s paper on green banking rules “is meant to feed into policy that will regulate that company’s business interests.” O’Reilly also recommended that the Commission strengthen its conflict of interest rules. That, as O’Reilly presumably knows, is not going to happen any time soon. In a response published on Monday, the Commission said it will “consider” proposing amendments to EU law to require companies and organisations to disclose conflicting interests when they bid for EU-funded contracts. It will also “consider” providing further guidance to assist staff dealing with public procurement. Emphasis, if you hadn’t noticed, on the word “consider”. BlackRock declined to comment on O’Reilly’s remarks. It had previously said its bid for the banking rules work was accepted because the commission found it offered the best quality for the lowest price. It also said it would ensure “physical segregation” of FMA to guarantee information did not flow to other parts of its business, which is comforting to know.
Italy to reopen schools, outdoor dining as hundreds die daily of COVID-19 -- Last Friday, in a press conference with Health Minister Roberto Speranza, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi announced a significant loosening of lockdown restrictions starting Monday, April 26. The announcement, which comes as hundreds of people continue to die every day of the virus, will ensure a further rise in coronavirus cases and deaths and has been widely denounced by medical professionals and scientists. All schools are to resume in-person classes beginning next Monday. Restaurants and bars in so-called “yellow zones,” where there is a less rapid spread of the virus, will be permitted to reopen for outdoor dining. Swimming pools and outdoor sports can reopen. There are currently more than 14,000 daily cases in Italy. The B.1.1.7 strain, referred to as the UK variant, is the dominant variant in the country. An average of 381 people are dying every day. Just a week ago the daily death rate stood at 470. More than 3,000 people remain in intensive care. Under these conditions, Draghi’s reopening announcement has a clearly homicidal character. In the course of the Friday press conference, he made no serious effort to justify the decision from a medical standpoint. Instead, he declared that it involved a “calculated risk” that there would be another resurgence of the virus. This calculation has nothing to do with the protection of the population and everything to do with the interests of the Italian capitalist class. Schools are being opened so that parents can be freed to go to work and Italian capitalism can continue to make profits for its super-rich. Medical professionals immediately denounced the announcement and warned that it will lead to unnecessary deaths. “I would like to understand what has been calculated and considered, and how many deaths we are willing to accept,” said Sergio Abrignani, an immunologist in Milan on the “Che Giorno” program of Rai Radio1. Without sufficient vaccinations “and a high level of transmission, it is a biological threat,” he said.
German teachers call for stricter school closures as part of country-wide Covid measures - Many schools will have to switch back to online learning sooner than planned due to new 'emergency brake' measures to be voted on Wednesday. Here's why some educators say the rules don't go far enough. The German teaching union has called for emergency Covid-19 measures to be tightened once again, so that schools transition to online learning at a lower rate of infection than proposed by the government.Under Germany’s Notbremse (emergency brake) measures, set to be voted on Wednesday, schools would have to close if more than 165 infections per 100,000 residents in seven days are detected.Yet the president of the union, Heinz-Peter Meidinger, called the threshold, already lowered from 200 in new draft legislation Monday, “still too high”.According to the recommendations of the federal committee on health, schools are not not to offer in-person teaching if the 7-day incidence rate goes above 165, though graduating classes and schools for children with special educational needs should be exempt from this. In many regions, the rate of infection has already exceeded this threshold. Miedinger stressed that he could not understand why schools should be held to a different standard to other areas of society.He suggested that “in order to effectively prevent outbreaks of the virus in schools, in-person classes should stop when the incidence rate goes above 100”.The national Covid-19 incidence rate in those aged 10 to 19 has already increased significantly, he added.
Thousands protest against Germany's plan for nationwide Covid-19 measures - The Local -Police fired tear gas as they tried to break up thousands of protesters staging a demonstration in Berlin on Wednesday against a planned national virus law, according to an AFP video journalist at the scene.Police said seven people were arrested after they sought to attack officers, AFP reported. Around 8,000 demonstrators – some not wearing masks – gathered near Berlin’s famous Brandenburg Gate, while the Bundestag debated the infection Protection Act,The new law, which is being voted on by the Bundestag on Wednesday, gives the national government power to impose lockdown measures on areas with high coronavirus infection rates to slow the third wave of the pandemic.The rules include curfews between 10pm and 5am, limits on private gatherings and on shop openings. Under the draft plans, schools will close and return to online teaching if the virus incidence rises above 165 cases per 100,000 residents in seven days.Around 2,200 officers were at the scene, while the Reichstag building and Brandenburg Gate were cordoned off.A police spokesperson said that water cannons were ready and could be used “if necessary”.On Wednesday, police officers with dogs stood near the demonstrators, while officers on horseback could also be seen. Task forces from Brandenburg, North Rhine-Westphalia, Bremen, Saxony and the federal police are supporting Berlin police.Police repeatedly called through a loudspeaker for protesters to comply with the coronavirus hygiene rules like wearing a mask and keeping distance.Some people were detained for not following the rules, police said. A mix of people have been protesting against tougher coronavirus measures in Germany over the past year. They include far-right groups, conspiracy theorists, so-called anti-vaxxers (those who are against vaccinations) and people who do not want restrictions on their freedom. There are also some militant activists who have compared government measures to the Enabling Act of 1933 which gave Nazi leader Adolf Hitler’s government dictatorial powers.
The Coronavirus Crisis Within the Economy Is Far From Over – Because Reopening Creates a Whole New Type of Risk - I have long suggested that the big issue for the economy when facing the challenge of coronavirus was not surviving the lockdowns – we now know how to do that – but in managing the recovery. At that point, I have always argued, the real problems will be revealed. Most especially, companies deprived of working capital (cash, in common parlance) as a result of losses incurred not made good by loans, and by a combination of lost skills (whether through simple lack of practice or significant staff turnover) will face the crisis of trying to get back to trading at the scale that they were working at pre-March 2020 and will discover that the thinned out resources at their command will fail, and they will too. To put this in the language of business, the effort to be what they once were will represent for them what is described as over-trading, which is the phenomenon of stretching available resources too thinly with the risk that the whole edifice then fails. I fear that the evidence to support this prediction is growing. In the FT this morning this is noted: The number of companies in significant financial distress has risen at the fastest rate in more than seven years, sparking warnings that “the dam of zombie businesses could be about to break” when government Covid-19 support comes to an end in the summer. The report comes from insolvency firm Bebies Traynor, which has been using a consistent measure of such stress since 2014. Basically measuring the number of firms revealing stress in their credit status, plus those suffering court orders against them, they now think 720,000 businesses are in distress. That’s a 100,000 increase in a quarter. It’s also a significant proportion of the number of firms that they must be monitoring in the UK. Of course, some firms are always in such distress. Business failure is normal. But this trend is not. If the data does reflect likely forthcoming failure – as this firm clearly thinks that it does – then this indicates real problems to come, just as I predicted there would be at this stage of the recovery cycle. This poses a real challenge for the government. Not only does this create the real risk of substantial losses on the loan facilities that it made available – many of which will not be repaid if this rate of failure happens – but such a loss of capacity could be severely disruptive to the economy over the year or more ahead.
Johnson halts travel to India as “there will be another wave” as UK sports venues and nightclubs reopen Prime Minister Boris Johnson this week reiterated his government’s commitment to its murderous “herd immunity” policy, saying again that everyone had to “learn to live with this virus.” In his Tuesday press conference, Johnson announced that easing lockdown restrictions will continue. The coming fortnight will see large attendances at events as part of the government’s Events Research Programme (ERP)—aimed at the full reopening of the economy by June 21—that will inevitably lead to more infections and deaths. Johnson said, “We cannot delude ourselves that COVID has gone away,” adding, “I see nothing in the data now that makes me think we are going to have to deviate in any way from the roadmap cautious but irreversible that we have set out. But the majority of scientific opinion in this country is still firmly of the view that there will be another wave of covid at some stage this year.” The callous response of the ruling elite was clear, with Johnson insisting, “We must—as far as possible—learn to live with this disease, as we live with other diseases.” “Learning to live with” COVID means learning to die from it. The government’s official death toll is 127,327, but this is a sizable underestimate, as it records only deaths within 28 days of a positive test. At least 150,841 have died with COVID-19 cited on their death certificate. This equates to around 221 deaths recorded per 100,000 people—the highest death rate among all countries with a population of more than 20 million. Lockdown is ending despite the spread to Britain of a host of mutations of the virus, including the Indian double-mutant B.1.617 variant. By Monday this week, 103 cases of B.1.617 had been officially identified in Britain, but other analysis of publicly available information suggested around 160 cases by last Saturday. Johnson announced he had “very sadly” cancelled an already postponed trip to New Delhi. He had reluctantly decided to ban travel to and from India putting the country on a red list as a “precautionary” measure, but the ban only resumes Friday. This allowed nearly a week of continued travel between the two countries before the ban came into place. There were still 16 direct flights scheduled from India between the announcement Monday and the deadline, and many more indirect flights. India’s own travel restrictions, imposed over concerns over the UK variant B.1.1.7, only reduced the number of direct flights from 70 to 30 a week. This in the same week in which India recorded highest number of COVID-19 daily cases (315,728) ever seen during the pandemic.
Britain looks to establish digital currency The announcement by China earlier this month that it is currently testing the use of a digital yuan in various pilot programs has brought a reaction from the Bank of England. The Treasury and the BoE announced on Monday that they had established a joint task force to evaluate the creation of a central bank digital currency (CBDC). Reporting on the decision, the Financial Times said it was a move to “future proof sterling against crypto currencies and improve the payments system.” A statement issued by the BoE said a CBDC would be a new form of digital currency issued by the bank for use by household and businesses and would exist alongside cash and bank deposits rather than replace them. The taskforce would monitor international CBDC developments “to ensure the UK remains at the forefront of global innovation.” It said the government and the BoE had not yet decided on whether to introduce a CBDC in the UK and would “engage widely with stakeholders on the benefits, risks and practicalities of doing so” and would “support a rigorous, coherent and comprehensive assessment of the overall case for a UK CBDC.” As yet authorities have no clear idea as to the form any digital currency would take. But they are clearly concerned that if Britain falls behind in the development of new methods of international monetary transactions, then the position of the City of London as a major global financial centre could be weakened. When crypto currencies first emerged, central banks were somewhat dismissive of them. But with the rise of bitcoin and a host of other cryptocurrencies and their growing use in financial circles the use of central-bank-backed digital currencies, and whether or not they use the blockchain ledger system that forms the basis of bitcoin, is under active discussion. Last month the chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, told an “innovation” conference conducted by the Bank for International Settlements that Fed officials were working with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology to explore the feasibility of a dollar-based digital currency. As with virtually every other economic issue – from COVID-19 vaccines, to trade, investment, technology and even green energy and climate change – the introduction of CBDCs is being analysed and discussed within the framework of a conflict with China. The FT reported that the British CBDC move was “likely to magnify perceptions that the West can only meet the challenge from China’s currency advances, and the greater efficiencies it is likely to offer users, by following a similar path.” Announcing the digital currency move last week, Chinese financial authorities said its goal for internationalising the yuan (also known as the renminbi) was not to replace the dollar and that the digital yuan was aimed at domestic use. The deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China, Li Bo, said internationalisation of the renminbi was a “natural process, and our goal is not to replace the US dollar or other international currencies. I think our goal in to allow the market to choose, to facilitate international trade and investment.” But as Bloomberg reported, the Biden administration “is increasing its scrutiny of China’s progress toward the digital yuan amid concerns it could kick off a long-term bid to displace the dollar.”
BankThink No. 1 rule for central bank digital currencies- Do no harm -- Central banks around the globe have decided to compete with private cryptocurrencies and each other in the race to issue central bank digital currencies. These efforts are important, but policymakers should give equal attention to the financial stability risks that may be linked to CBDCs. Digital money has been in use for some time in traditional payments systems under assumed names. In payments and monetary control systems, banks and the Fed make digital transfers of value all the time to clear and settle obligations between and among each other. Direct payroll deposits as well as debit card, Zelle and Venmo payments all operate as functional equivalents of digital dollars for consumers. But the deployment of a token or account-based digital dollar that directly links retail users and the Fed creates a kaleidoscope of complicated monetary, policy and stability issues that require a careful balancing of the related benefits, costs and risks. CBDCs have become a sort of financial Rorschach tests. Everyone sees something different when they look at them. They represent modernization, efficiencies and cost savings to some while others focus on the advantages — real or imagined — of real-time global payments transfers. There are hopes that it will better serve low-income and unbanked citizens. On the other hand, China views it as a fail-safe means of surveilling its own population and at the same time defanging U.S. dollar diplomacy and sanctions. An April 7 Bank Policy Institute report authored by President and CEO Greg Baer summarizes a number of important financial issues, noting that a CBDC could provide the Fed with an even more direct role in setting retail interest rates, transform the flow of consumer funds that banks rely on to make consumer and business loans, and impact the risk profile of U.S. banks and therefore the U.S. economy. The report provides an excellent cost-benefit analysis of the many issues raised by CBDCs and deserves a close reading. Since the Fed is actively engaged in studying the feasibility of a digital dollar, let’s focus on three critical issues that a CBDC would raise in the United States. First, CBDCs will centralize and concentrate economic power in the hands of governments, which could potentially allow them to surveil each and every financial transaction. This may be an incentive for China, which is using technology to monitor and control the behavior of its citizens. But the implications of such government-controlled databases will likely invite pushback in the United States. Second, CBDCs will alter the current banking and payments models by eliminating some if not all of the financial intermediaries involved. Whether it be checks, ATM transactions, automated clearinghouse transfers or credit cards, most retail payments systems today use a processing model that includes validation and transmittal by the payor’s, payee’s and system provider’s banks. All share in the flow of revenue. CBCDs will rearrange these models and even CBDCs reliant on bank-issued wallets will transform payments markets in fundamental ways. Third and most importantly, governments must be sure that CBDCs do not increase the risk of a digital heist of the nation’s currency? Before becoming intoxicated with technological happy talk and deploying CBDCs, they must consider the their future vulnerability.
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