Fed report warns of “vulnerabilities” in US financial system - The semi-annual Financial Stability Report, issued by the US Federal Reserve on Thursday, has warned that the rising debt of hedge funds, much of which is not recorded by regulatory authorities, poses growing risks for the stability of the financial system. Key aspects of the report were highlighted in an introductory statement by Fed governor Lael Brainard, who chairs the Fed’s committee on financial stability. She noted that “vulnerabilities associated with elevated risk appetite are rising.” The report said markets for short-term funding were now functioning normally, following the collapse of March 2020 and the turbulence of late February this year. However, “structural vulnerabilities at some nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs) could amplify shocks to the financial system in times of stress.” In her statement, Brainard said valuations across a range of assets had continued to rise from their elevated levels of last year, with equity prices setting new highs. Relative to expected future earnings they were “near the top of their historical distribution.” The appetite for risk had increased as the “meme stock” episode had demonstrated. This refers to the elevation of the share price earlier this year of the video games retailer GameStop, because of its promotion on Reddit and other social media platforms. This was despite the company’s business model experiencing significant difficulties. Brainard said corporate bond markets were also seeing “elevated risk appetite” with the difference between the interest rates on lower quality speculative-grade bonds and that of Treasury bonds among the lowest ever seen. “This combination of stretched valuations with very high levels of corporate indebtedness bear watching because of the potential to amplify the effects of a repricing event,” she said. In other words, a rapid downturn in one area of the market would be rapidly transmitted through the financial system. Brainard pointed to the failure in March of the family-owned hedge fund Archegos Capital, leveraged by banks to the tune of $50 billion, and the associated losses suffered by those banks. It highlights, she said, “the potential for nonbank financial institutions such as hedge funds and other leveraged investors to generate large losses in the financial system.” The Archegos event illustrated “the limited visibility into hedge fund exposures and serves as a reminder that available measures of hedge fund leverage may not be capturing important risks.” Reading between the lines, the meaning of this statement is that the Fed is concerned that there are more Archegos Capitals out there, but it has no real idea of where they are or the level of bank exposure to them. Brainard noted that the “potential for material distress at hedge funds to affect broader financial conditions underscores the importance of more granular, high-frequency disclosures.” The report pointed to numbers of areas of potential instability and how it could be transmitted. ” Under the heading “Funding Risk,” the report said that in 2020 the amount of liabilities “potentially vulnerable to runs, including those of nonbanks, is estimated to have increased by 13.6 percent to $17.7 trillion,” an amount equivalent to about 85 percent of GDP. It said “structural vulnerabilities” remain at NBFIs, including at money mutual funds and “regulatory agencies are exploring options for reforms that will address those vulnerabilities.” The admission that nothing is in place at present underscores one of the key features of the financial system. Every time the Fed or other regulatory bodies attempt to put a check on, or even exercise oversight over, some of the more speculative operations, market operators devise new ways to get around them.
Fed Shamelessly Gives Warnings of Vague and Ominous Risks While Saying Don’t Expect Us to Do Anything About It - by Yves Smith - If anyone in the Congressional committees that oversee the Fed had an operating brain cell, they should flay the Fed for its indefensible posture of ignorance and powerlessness. I am relying on what I take to be a fair-minded recap in the Financial Times, Fed warns of hidden leverage lurking in financial system. What I find most disturbing is the rank dishonesty of the Fed, in what looks to be deliberate mischaracterization of the Archegos implosion, made worse by the central bank’s “And how can you expect us to know what’s going on?” anticipatory blame avoidance. To put this another way, the Fed is trying to pre-sell a “whocoulddanode?” defense when that sort of guilty faced, foot-shuffling act is unacceptable after the Fed was caught out being way behind the curve in the runup to the global financial crisis. Archegos was not a systematic event. Not even close. One hedge fund with so few investors that it ran on a “friends and family” basis (tarted up as “family office”) blew up. It did not bring down any other players. It did briefly roil markets in the stocks Archegos held. Banks collectively lost about $10 billion. By comparison, Paribas paid $8.9 billion in economic sanctions fines to the Department of Justice in 2014, which in current dollar terms is $10.0 billion. No one suggested the Paribas fine was systemic or even a health-threatening blow. The troubling issue was how did this one hedge fund get to be so leveraged? Here is where the Fed misdirects Congress and the general public:The US Federal Reserve has warned that existing measures of hedge fund leverage “may not be capturing important risks”, pointing to the collapse of Archegos Capital as an example of hidden vulnerabilities in the global financial system….Hwang’s high-wire act was hard to monitor because family offices face limited disclosure requirements and because he used derivatives known as equity total return swaps. These instruments enabled Archegos to profit from rises in individual stocks with payments equal to only a fraction of the size of the underlying positions.First, the hand-wringing about Archegos being a hedge fund able to do sneaky things in dark alleys is all wet. Do you seriously think regulators have all that much visibility into the much bigger (but also known to be tightly run) Citadel? How about the personal portfolios of very large investors? And what about multinational corporations that run their Treasury operations as profit centers, or Apple, which runs an internal hedge fund out of Nevada? In other words, if the Fed thinks the problem is particular player, “hedge funds” is far too narrow a frame. “Leveraged financial speculators” is closer to the mark.And they are secretive about their holdings. Any large trader will spread his business among multiple execution firms because the firms can and will trade against him if they know his positions.Second, the problem is not the opaqueness of the hedge fund’s activity, even though if you read the Financial Times’ account, you would think that that is the the Fed’s big worry. It’s the ability to achieve high levels of leverage. And that’s the fault of the regulatory regime.
Treasury Secretary Yellen warns interest rates may need to rise - US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said the Federal Reserve may have to lift interest rates in order to head off inflation in the US economy. She made the comments in a pre-recorded statement for an event hosted by the Atlantic magazine as growing concerns have been raised over whether Biden’s spending plans will lead to an increase in inflationary pressures. “It may be that interest rates will have to rise somewhat to make sure that our economy doesn’t overheat, even though the additional spending is relatively small relative to the size of the economy,” Yellen said. “So it could cause some very moderate increase in interest rates to get that reallocation. But these are investments our economy needs to be competitive and to be productive.” Coming from a former Fed chief, Yellen’s comments were something of a departure from previous practice in which Treasury secretaries do not comment on Fed policies and the Fed refrains from commenting on the policies of the administration. Aware of the concerns in financial markets about the prospect of an interest rate rise, Yellen appeared to backtrack somewhat from her remarks in later comments in an interview at a CEO Council Summit held by the Wall Street Journal. In that forum, she said a lift in interest rates by the Fed was “not something I’m predicting or recommending.” “I don’t think there’s going to be an inflationary problem, but if there is, the Fed can be counted on to address it,” she stated. Asked about the position of the Biden administration on Yellen’s assessment, White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters the president agreed with the Treasury Secretary and the White House was keeping a close watch on prices. “We also take inflationary risks incredibly seriously, and our economic experts have conveyed that they think this would be temporary and that the benefits far outweigh the concern,” Psaki said. Inflation concerns have been voiced by former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers who has said the Biden administration’s spending measures risk setting off the kind of price rises seen in the 1970s. There is a degree of nervousness in financial markets that if inflation begins to rise, the Fed may be forced to increase rates. This would have an immediate adverse impact of Wall Street where money has been raked in hand over fist because of the massive support provided by the Fed—low rates combined with the injection of trillions of dollars via financial asset purchases since the market freeze of March 2020.
Recovery slower among low earners, racial minorities: Powell -- The economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic has been slower for low earners and racial minorities, exacerbating inequality even as it gains steam, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Monday. “While the recovery is gathering strength, it has been slower for those in lower-paid jobs,” he said at a National Community Reinvestment Coalition event on the “just economy.” Among the top quarter of earners, just 6 percent were unemployed in February, he noted, while the figure was 20 percent among the lowest quarter. College-educated workers were also less likely to be laid off last year as the pandemic took hold by an 8-point margin, while Black and Hispanic prime-age workers were more likely to be laid off by a 6-point margin relative to their white counterparts. One of the areas that had the most significant level of economic disruption was child care. While 22 percent of all parents stopped working because of disruptions to in-person school or child care, the percentage rose to 36 percent among Black mothers and 30 percent among Hispanic mothers. Powell’s comments on Monday come as the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic has begun to hit its stride. Gross domestic product growth in the first quarter came in at an annualized 6.4 percent, potentially setting up the strongest annual growth since the early 1980s. Although unemployment remains high, weekly jobless claims have dropped from record levels and economists are expecting a strong jobs report Friday. But the problem of income and racial inequality has been a central theme for President Biden, who has pushed initiatives to reduce child poverty, provide economic aid for low earners and close racial gaps. Powell noted that the Fed’s central mandate is to ensure a strong economy that would lift everyone, but pointed to fiscal and monetary tools that could ensure a more targeted response, such as strong supervision of racial equality laws and efforts to focus on community financial institutions that serve minority populations. Allowing deep-rooted inequalities to persist, he said, would have implications for the wider economy. “The Fed is focused on these long-standing disparities because they weigh on the productive capacity of our economy,” he said. “We will only reach our full potential when everyone can contribute to, and share in, the benefits of prosperity.”
Biden aide demurs on question of second term for Powell at Fed --A senior White House economic aide demurred on the question of whether President Joe Biden will nominate Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for a second four-year term, saying the decision on selecting the next central bank chief will come after a thorough “process.” “It’s neither yes nor no,” Jared Bernstein, a member of Biden’s Council of Economic Advisers, told a Politico event Tuesday in response to question on whether the president should re-nominate Jerome Powell as Fed chair. Jerome Powell, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, listens during a Senate Banking Committee hearing in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Thursday, June 22, 2017.Bloomberg NewsPowell’s tenure at the helm of the U.S. central bank expires in February. Biden said last month that he hadn’t spoken to Powell out of respect for the institution’s independence. Powell, 68, was appointed to the Fed’s Board of Governors by President Barack Obama and elevated to chair by his successor Donald Trump. Biden is expected to weigh the choice of Fed chair, as well as other positions at the central bank, in coming months. He is already being lobbied to use a current vacancy on the seven-seat board in Washington to bring greater diversity to the central bank.
Distributional Data from the National Income and Product Accounts --Menzie Chinn - Using an incredibly powerful device called “the Google”, I have discovered new prototype data releases regarding the distributional aspects of real personal income. Here are some figures depicting income accruing to select household income percentiles, contributions to income growth therefrom, and Gini coefficients. These figures are from this Working Paper entitled “Measuring Inequality in the National Accounts” (updated 2020).Source for all 3 posted charts: Fixler, Gindelsky, Johnson, “Measuring Inequality in the National Acconnts” (BEA, December 2020).While some similar income statistics are available from the Census, these variables are constructed in a manner related to NIPA, so are useful for business cycle analysis. One could criticize the data as being at a relatively low frequency (annual). However, my guess is that reporting these series at higher frequency (e.g., quarterly) would entail such large amounts of interpolation and estimation that they would not be particularly useful. The entire webpage on this subject is here. Technical details discussed here.
Petition asking government for monthly $2,000 stimulus checks passes 2 million signatures - An online petition calling on Congress to deliver $2,000 monthly stimulus checks to Americans to help remedy the economic blow caused by the coronavirus pandemic has garnered more than 2 million signatures. The Change.org petition was started last year by a restaurant owner in Denver, Stephanie Bonin, who noted the many hardships her business and many others have faced as a consequence of lockdowns caused by the deadly outbreak. As the federal government has issued three rounds of stimulus checks over the last 15 months since the pandemic kicked off, Bonin argued that isn’t enough. “I’m calling on Congress to support families with a $2,000 payment for adults and a $1,000 payment for kids immediately, and continuing regular checks for the duration of the crisis,” the petition states. “It took nine months for Congress to send a stimulus check, and just moments to spend it. Another single check won’t solve our problems — people are just too far behind,” the petition says. “The best thing our government can do right now is send emergency money to the people on a monthly basis.” As of Monday, the petition had more than 2 million of its 3 million signature goal. The first round of stimulus checks was approved by Congress in March 2020 and included payments of up to $1,200, followed by payments of up to $600 in December. The third round was passed under President Biden with up to $1,400 paid to eligible Americans. In March, more than 20 Democratic senators signed a letter calling on President Biden to throw his support behind recurring stimulus payments, pointing out the $1,400 payment won’t hold people over for long. According to a Kaiser Family Foundation poll released in March, 37 percent of adults said they or another adult in their household have had trouble paying for basic expenses in the past three months. Three-fourths of those polled said Congress is not doing enough to help people who lost a job or income due to the pandemic.
Biden defends plan to raise taxes on the rich - President Biden on Monday defended his plan to raise taxes on wealthy Americans to pay for free preschool and community college and tax credits for middle- and low-income families, arguing his proposal would “balance” the economy and help the U.S. better compete with other nations. “The choice is about who the economy serves,” Biden said in remarks at a community college in Norfolk, Va. “Is it more important to shield millionaires from paying their fair share or is it more important than every child gets a real opportunity to succeed from an early age, and ease the burden on families?” Biden reiterated that he would not raise taxes on those making less than $400,000 and he said that his $1.8 trillion families plan would not add to the deficit “unlike the last gigantic tax cut which increased the deficit by $2 trillion.” “It’s about balancing the system and growing the economy,” Biden said. “Trickle-down economics has never worked. For too long we have had an economy that gives every break in the world to the folks who need it the least. It’s time to grow the economy from the bottom up and the middle out.” Biden's proposal to raise taxes on corporations and wealthy Americans to pay for his infrastructure and families plans has come under hefty criticism from Republicans. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) has also voiced opposition to Biden’s proposal to raise the corporate tax rate from 21 percent to 28 percent. Biden used a sizeable portion of his remarks in Virginia rebutting the criticism, characterizing his families plan as a “once in a generation” investment in American families that will make the U.S. more competitive against other global economies. “We’re in a race,” Biden said. “It all starts with access to a good education.” Biden’s proposal calls for free preschool for all three- and four-year-olds, two years of tuition-free community college and tax credits for middle- and low-income families. The proposal would need to be passed by Congress and faces an uncertain fate in Washington as Biden also pushes for the passage of his $2.3 trillion infrastructure package. With extremely slim majorities in the House and Senate, Democrats would need to resort to budget reconciliation to pass any of Biden’s plans should the White House fail to attract Republican support. Doing so would require virtually every Democrat to vote in favor of a bill.
McConnell: No Senate Republicans will back Biden on $4T - Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said on Monday that he expected no Republicans would support President Biden's sweeping infrastructure package, indicating GOP lawmakers are open to a roughly $600 billion bill."I think it's worth talking about but I don't think there will be any Republican support — none, zero — for the $4.1 trillion grab bag which has infrastructure in it but a whole lot of other stuff," McConnell said in a press conference in Kentucky.Biden has proposed a sweeping roughly $4 trillion infrastructure package broken up into two pieces: A $2.3 trillion jobs package and a $1.8 trillion families package. While the package includes money for roads, bridges and broadband, it also expands into manufacturing, in-home care, housing, clean energy, public schools and manufacturing.Democrats are likely to have to go it alone under reconciliation — which allows them to bypass the 60-vote filibuster — to pass most, if not all, of Biden's package.A group of Senate Republicans, led by Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), have proposed a $568 billion package. Biden and Capito talked late last week, both expressing an interest to keep negotiating and potentially setting up another White House meeting.McConnell signaled Republicans were willing to go slightly higher, but still significantly smaller than the plan being envisioned by Democrats."We're open to doing a roughly $600 billion package which deals with what all of us agree is infrastructure," McConnell said. "If it's going to be about infrastructure, let's make it about infrastructure."Biden's proposing paying for his plan through a combination of higher taxes for wealthy individuals, corporations and on capital gains.But McConnell warned on Monday that it was a non-starter, saying that Republicans "are not going to revisit the 2017 tax bill," which the Senate GOP leader called the "most significant domestic accomplishment" from the Trump-era other than judicial nominations. Republicans, as part of the 2017 bill, lowered the corporate tax rate to 21 percent. "We're not willing to pay for it by undoing the 2017 bill," McConnell said.
Biden pursues GOP infrastructure deal as anxious Democrats watch the clock— As President Joe Biden doubles down on seekingRepublican cooperation for an infrastructure package, some Democratic allies say he should be prepared to go it alone if a deal doesn't materialize quickly.The White House wants to see counteroffers to Biden's $2.25 trillion infrastructure plan by the middle of this month, and if progress isn't being made by Memorial Day, officials will reassess their strategy of trying to build bipartisan support, said a person familiar with the negotiations.Some moderate Democrats insist on cutting a deal — and others worry that it would be a dead end that would burn valuable time.Republicans, who have floated a slimmer $568 billion package, say they wonder whether the White House is willing to limit a bill to narrower measures, like roads and bridges, while cutting out pieces they oppose, like elder care subsidies. Aides for members of Congress on both sides of the aisle also say they fear that the other side may not be negotiating in good faith.If Democrats unify behind a proposal, they could use a budget process to pass legislation through the Senate without Republican support, as they did with the $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief package. But for now, they lack consensus to go that route. And with razor-thin majorities in both chambers, they can't have any defections.Biden spoke Thursday by phone with Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W. Va., who is playing point for her party on infrastructure. Both later sounded upbeat; Capito said it was a "constructive" discussion, and Biden described it as a "good conversation" and invited her to the White House."Let's decide what are they prepared to consider in terms of what constitutes infrastructure, how much of it, and then we can talk about how to pay for it if we get to the point that we actually have a real number," Biden told reporters after the call. "If it's like last time — and I don't, I think she's serious — but if, like last time, they come in with one-fourth or one-fifth of what I'm asking and say, 'That's a final offer,' then it's a no-go for me."White House chief of staff Ron Klain said Sunday that Capito and several other Republicans would be invited to the White House this week.Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., a member of the Finance Committee, said he doubted that Democrats would be willing to compromise — unless they are forced to."Do they have the votes? If they don't have the votes, they're serious about bipartisanship. If they have the votes, they're not serious about bipartisanship," he said. "That's my presumption."
Talks pick up on 'building blocks' of infrastructure package -- Monday, May 3, 2021 -- The House and Senate are technically not in session this week, but discussions on President Biden's multitrillion-dollar infrastructure push will continue behind the scenes and in virtual committee hearings.While there's plenty of skepticism on both sides on the prospects for bipartisanship, there were also positive signs last week and over the weekend in the quest for common ground.On Thursday, Biden and Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) spoke on infrastructure in a call that both sides described as helpful."She seemed very serious and very positive about wanting to do something about it," Biden told reporters Thursday, adding that he had invited the lead GOP negotiator to the White House to continue in-person talks. The timing of that meeting is unclear.In a statement, Capito described a "constructive and substantive call" with the president. "I stand ready to be a partner in advancing infrastructure legislation in a bipartisan way — just as we've done in the past," said Capito, the ranking member on the Environment and Public Works Committee.Capito told E&E News that discussions with the White House have largely focused on policy but have also included the thorny questions of pay-fors, which she declined to discuss in detail.On Fox News yesterday, Capito said: "We're working with the White House, and I think it's been very open-door. We have been very encouraged to keep moving forward. And until somebody tells [me] it's not working anymore, I'm going to try to reach that sweet spot."Republicans remain adamantly opposed to Biden's proposal to hike corporate tax rates over 15 years to pay for the infrastructure push. They also remain adamant on a smaller price tag."Let me tell you what I won't support. I won't support American businesses paying the highest corporate tax rate among developed countries in the world once again, and, unfortunately, that's what 28% would be," Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) said on CNN's "State of the Union."Collins noted that Biden's recent proposals cost upward of $4 trillion combined. "That's the amount that we spent to win World War II," Collins said.
The Biden Administration Proposes Far-Reaching Tax Overhaul - - President Biden recently announced his $1.8 trillion American Families Plan (AFP), the third step in his Build Back Better policy initiative. The announcement followed the previous releases of the proposed $2.3 trillion American Jobs Plan and the Made in America Tax Plan. These plans propose major investments in various domestic initiatives, such as expanded tax credits for families, offset with tax increases on high-income individual taxpayers and corporations. The AFP would reverse many of the provisions in 2017's Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and other parts of the tax code that benefit higher-income taxpayers. These taxpayers could be hit by changes to the following:The plan proposes to return the tax rate for the top income bracket to Obama administration levels, going from the current 37% to 39.6%. It is not clear whether the income tax brackets will be adjusted. For 2021, the top tax rate begins at $523,601 for single taxpayers and $628,301 for married taxpayers filing jointly.For those with income of more than $1 million in a tax year, the AFP would tax long-term capital gains and qualified dividend income as ordinary income - in other words, at 39.6% (plus the 3.8% net investment income tax). Long-term capital gains currently are taxed at a maximum rate of 20% (effectively 23.8%, when combined with the net investment income tax), depending on taxable income and filing status. With state and local capital gains taxes, high-income individuals could face an overall capital gains tax rate that tops 50%. Net Investment Income Tax (NIIT) applies to net investment income to the extent that a taxpayer's modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) exceeds $200,000 for single tax filers, $250,000 for joint filers and $125,000 for married taxpayers filing separately. If a taxpayer meets the applicable MAGI threshold and has net investment income, the amount of NIIT liability is 3.8% of the lesser of the amount by which the MAGI exceeds the threshold or the net investment income.The AFP proposes to broaden the NIIT by applying it to all types of income greater than $400,000, rather than only investment income.Under existing law, the income tax basis of an inherited asset is the asset's fair market value at the time of the deceased's death, not the deceased's original cost for it. This is referred to as a "stepped-up basis." As a result of this rule, an unrealized gain on appreciated assets can be avoided if a taxpayer holds the asset until death and the heir then sells the asset utilizing the increased basis.To reduce the incentive to hold appreciated assets until after death, the AFP eliminates the "stepped-up basis" for most assets. There are exceptions for the first $1 million of gain and the Biden administration has indicated that it would carve out exceptions for property donated to charities and family-owned businesses and farms.A "carried interest" is a hedge fund manager's contractual right to a share of a partnership's profits. Currently, it is taxable at the capital gains rate if certain conditions are satisfied. The Biden administration would tax carried interests at ordinary tax rates.Also known as Section 1031 exchanges, like-kind exchanges allow a taxpayer to defer the recognition of a gain on the exchange of real property held for use in a business or for investment if the property is exchanged solely for similar property. The AFP would end such deferrals for gains of more than $500,000. The American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA), passed in March 2021, temporarily increased the CTC from $2,000 to $3,000 for eligible taxpayers for each child age six through 17, with credits of $3,600 for each child under age six. It also makes the credit fully refundable in most cases.
Rural Democrats urge protections from tax increases for family farms - A group of House Democrats who represent rural communities are urging leaders in the chamber to ensure that family farms aren’t hurt by legislation based on President Biden’s proposed tax increases. The rural-district lawmakers are concerned about Biden’s proposal in his American Families Plan to tax capital gains at death. The White House has said that this proposal will include exemptions for family farms and businesses in certain circumstances, and the lawmakers want to make sure that such an exemption is included in legislation. “The repeal of stepped-up basis for capital gains and immediate taxation could especially hurt family farms, some of which have been in families for generations; therefore, we strongly urge you to provide full exemptions for these family farms and small businesses that are critical to our communities,” the lawmakers wrote in a letter Thursday to Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) and House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Richard Neal (D-Mass.). Thirteen lawmakers, led by Reps. Cindy Axne (D-Iowa) and Jim Costa (D-Calif.), signed the letter. The rural-area lawmakers aren’t the only group of Democrats who have been urging lawmakers to take into account issues of particular importance to their districts when crafting legislation based on Biden’s economic recovery plans; another group of lawmakers from high-tax states such as New York, New Jersey and California want legislation to include repeal of the cap on the state and local tax deduction. Democratic leaders will likely need to take lawmakers’ geographic-related interests into account when they craft legislation. They will need the support of nearly every Democratic lawmaker, given that Republicans are expected to oppose bills based on Biden’s plans and Democrats have narrow majorities in Congress. Biden last week released a $1.8 trillion proposal focused on child care, education and tax credits that benefit low- and middle-income households. He’s proposing to pay for the plan through tax increases on high-income households. One element of Biden’s proposed revenue raisers is to tax capital gains above $1 million at death. Currently, people can give investments to their heirs without the assets being taxed at their time of death, and when the heirs sell the assets, they don't have to pay capital gains taxes on the value that the investments appreciated before they received them. The White House said that this proposal would help to prevent billions of dollars in investment income from escaping taxes. The administration said the proposal will include protections to prevent family farms and businesses from being taxed when passed down to heirs who continue to operate them. The Agriculture Department said in a statement last week that estimates show that more than 98 percent of estates with farms won't owe any tax under Biden's plan if the farm is passed down to a family member.
McConnell says focus is on 'stopping' Biden agenda as Trump continues to push election lies --Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said Wednesday that his focus was on “stopping” President Biden’s administration, citing the unity in his caucus.“One hundred percent of my focus is on stopping this new administration,”McConnell said during a press conference in Kentucky when asked if he was concerned that Republicans who acknowledged Biden as the rightful winner of the 2020 election could face political liabilities.“One hundred percent of my focus is on standing up to this administration,” McConnell continued. “What we have in the United States Senate is total unity from [moderate Maine Sen.] Susan Collins to [conservative Texas Sen.] Ted Cruz in opposition to what the new Biden administration is trying to do to this country.”McConnell’s comments come as his party continues to reckon with the legacy of former President Donald Trump, who handily lost the November election to Biden but has continued to baselessly insist that he won.Trump remains wildly popular with Republican voters and is considered a leading candidate for the GOP presidential nomination in 2024. At the same time, Trump is a divisive figure who continues to alienate broad swaths of the electorate, including many traditionally right-leaning voters.The question of how to handle Trump looms over GOP leaders like McConnell, who are struggling to find a way to keep the voters Trump attracted to the party while winning back those he drove away. In the meantime, House and Senate Republicans have stayed largely united in opposing Biden’s agenda despite their internal disagreements over Trump.McConnell’s counterparts in the House are currently coordinating an effort to oust Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., who has emerged in recent months as the party’s foremost Trump critic in elected office, from her leadership role in the GOP conference. Cheney, the daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney, voted to impeach Trump for his role in inciting the Jan. 6 Capitol riot and has continued criticizing his meritless claims that the election was “rigged” against him.
Weak US jobs reports sparks calls for elimination of pandemic aid --The surprisingly weak US jobs report Friday is being used to ramp up demands to eliminate pandemic-related social support measures in order to force workers back into unsafe workplaces. The US Labor Department reported a net of 266,000 new jobs in April, dramatically lower than the one million new jobs that were expected by economists. In fact, Goldman Sachs economists had expected a total of 1.3 million jobs in April. The Labor Department also revised downward its jobs total for March from 916,000 to 770,000. The unemployment rate, which had been expected to fall to 5.8 percent, instead edged upward to 6.1 percent. Nearly 500,000 filed for first-time unemployment benefits last week, still very high by historical standards. Overall, there are still more than 8.2 million fewer jobs than before the pandemic began. The largest engine of new job growth in April was again leisure and hospitality, 331,000. This category includes businesses such as bars, hotels and restaurants that tend to pay lower wages. Manufacturing employment was down 18,000, largely in the auto industry where chip shortages have forced the temporary shutdown of some factories. Retail jobs fell by 15,000, and health care jobs declined by 4,000. There were conflicting explanations for the dramatic fall off in new job creation under conditions where many pandemic restrictions have been eased or lifted. There were suggestions that it might be a statistical anomaly or that supply chain issues and worker shortages were a major factor. However, from corporate interests, there were shrill complaints over the lack of able-bodied workers willing to work for paltry wages amidst a continuing pandemic. This was accompanied by demands for the ending of COVID-19-related social support measures. On Thursday Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell blamed the Biden administration’s stimulus package that was enacted by Congress in March for acting as an incentive for people not to work. The bill extended expanded unemployment benefits, including $300 weekly additions to state unemployment benefits, and provided a one-time $1,400 stimulus check for most Americans. On Friday Republican Senator Marco Rubio tweeted: “I told you weeks ago that in Florida I hear from small business everyday that they can’t hire people because the government is paying them to not go back to work.” Representative Kevin Brady of Texas, the top Republican on the Ways and Means Committee, said the jobs report demonstrated that the Biden administration was “sabotaging our recovery.” He added, “The White House is also in denial that many businesses—both small and large—can’t find the workers they need.” Also on Friday the US Chamber of Commerce called for an immediate end to the $300 weekly unemployment benefit supplement. In a news release Neil Bradley, executive vice president and chief policy officer for the Chamber, said, “The disappointing jobs report makes it clear that paying people not to work is dampening what should be a stronger jobs market.” Already South Carolina and Montana have said they plan to end the federal supplement, and other Republican-controlled states have indicated they may do the same.
Pay a Living Wage or ‘Flip Your Own Damn Burgers’: Progressives Blast Right-Wing Narrative on Jobs - Pushing back on the right-wing narrative about the reason for real or perceived labor shortages in some markets nationwide, progressives on Friday told corporations that if they want to hire more people, they’ll need to start paying better wages.Soon after the Labor Department released its April jobs report, the U.S. Chamber of Congressblamed last month’s weak employment growth on the existence of a $300 weekly supplemental jobless benefit and began urging lawmakers to eliminate the federally enhanced unemployment payments that were extended through early September when congressional Democrats passed President Joe Biden’s American Rescue Plan.“No. We don’t need to end [the additional] $300 a week in emergency unemployment benefits that workers desperately need,” Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) saidin response to the grumbles of the nation’s largest business lobbying group. “We need to end starvation wages in America.”“If $300 a week is preventing employers from hiring low-wage workers there’s a simple solution,” Sanders added. “Raise your wages. Pay decent benefits.”According to the Chamber’s analysis, the extra $300 unemployment insurance (UI) benefit results in roughly one in four recipients taking home more pay than they earned working.In response to that claim, Sanders’ staff director Warren Gunnelssaid: “If one in four recipients are making more off unemployment than they did working, that’s not an indictment of $300 a week in UI benefits. It’s an indictment of corporations paying starvation wages.”“Raise your wages and benefits or flip your own damn burgers and sweep your own damn floors,” Gunnels added. Other progressives like former labor secretary Robert Reich and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) also chimed in. This is not complicated. If you can’t afford to pay your employees a living wage, you do not have a viable business model. “We do not have a shortage of willing workers in this country,” Morris Pearl of the Patriotic Millionaires said in a Friday afternoon statement responding to the Chamber. “We have a shortage of employers who are willing to pay workers enough to live.”
Pfizer announces windfall profits as low-income countries denied vaccines - Five months after the United States first granted emergency use authorization to the first COVID-19 vaccine, the vaccination drive throughout the developing world is a disaster. Wealthy countries have received more than 87 percent of COVID-19 vaccines distributed worldwide, while the “low-income” former colonial countries have received less than 1 percent, according to the World Health Organization. In Africa, less than 1 percent of the population has received even a single dose of the vaccine. In India, the epicenter of the global pandemic, where crematoria are running nonstop, and people are dying in the streets, less than 10 percent of the population has received a single dose. Despite the global vaccination disaster, the vaccine rollout has been a bonanza for US drug maker Pfizer, which announced Tuesday it had beat its revenue forecast by 73 percent. By pricing the vaccine approximately 20 percent above the cost to develop and produce it, the company logged nearly a billion dollars in profits from the vaccine in the first quarter alone. Pfizer expects to sell $26 billion worth of vaccines this year, bringing in about $5 billion in profit. Pfizer’s stock price has surged nearly 50 percent since last year, while its German partner BioNTech went from a startup to a multibillion-dollar company in just months, generating billions of dollars in earnings for wealthy shareholders. The stock price of Pfizer’s competitor Moderna has more than quadrupled over the past 12 months, and its CEO Stéphane Bancel is now worth nearly $5 billion. The vast enrichment of these private corporations and their shareholders is made possible through massive investments by governments, particularly that of the United States, which spent over $10 billion helping to develop the vaccines monetized by Pfizer and Moderna. The mRNA vaccines developed by these two companies are based on a key discovery of the National Institute of Health’s (NIH) Vaccine Research Center, which holds the patent for how the virus’s spike protein is stabilized in the vaccine. While several companies have licensed the NIH’s patent, Moderna makes use of the NIH discovery without paying any royalties. In other words, without the NIH’s patent, there would be no Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. Yet the US government has declined to use what scientists have called a vast amount of leverage over vaccine makers to ensure an equitable global distribution. “For NIH to not have ensured global access is a dereliction of their duty to protect the public health of the United States,”
Experts press Biden on travel strategy amid virus surge in India - The U.S. will impose travel restrictions on visitors from India starting Tuesday, underscoring how COVID-19 remains a huge threat around the world even as it starts to recede in the United States. The dichotomy raises a number of questions for the Biden administration on how to handle travel from a number of countries where COVID-19 cases are continuing to explode and where vaccinations are proceeding at a slower pace. Experts say the U.S. lacks a cohesive strategy on travel rules. While the restrictions on India are the only new ones being announced Tuesday, questions may be raised about other countries in Latin America, Asia and Africa. “I don’t understand the strategy right now. It’s not that the restrictions are wrong, but they are inconsistent,” said Leana Wen, a public health professor at George Washington University and former Baltimore health commissioner. “In light of the fact that the US has an increasing rate of vaccinations and the rest of the world will continue to have outbreaks, now is the time to have a consistent message of when travel restrictions will be applied.” The White House attributed the ban on most travel from India to high COVID-19 cases and multiple variants in the country. COVID-19 deaths topped 3,000 for the fourth consecutive day on Sunday in India. The outbreak in India has spilled into nearby countries like Nepal, where hospitals have run out of beds, Pakistan and Bangladesh. “If India is being added because of the stated reasons of rising infections and possible new variants, then why aren’t other countries that are also affected in that region? Otherwise, you have a policy with many holes and if it's inconsistently applied then you might as well not have the policy at all,” Wen said. The airline industry has lobbied the administration to take a risk-based approach to travel restrictions and put countries on the list where the risk is high, but also to be transparent about what that criteria is and how it's being used. “We think this is an area where we’d really like to see the US government lead. We’ve seen the administration achieve remarkable success in the vaccination roll out…now is the time to plan and for the US government to put forward a plan that is going to reopen borders in places where it makes sense and is safe,” said Sharon Pinkerton, Airlines for America (A4A) senior vice president of legislative and regulatory policy.Travel industry leaders, including A4A, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the U.S. Travel Association, called on Biden and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson to announce the full reopening of U.S.-U.K. travel in early June in a letter on Monday. The U.S. still also has travel restrictions on Brazil, China, Iran, South Africa and other places to prevent most noncitizens from entering the U.S. if they’ve traveled to those countries within two weeks.
Biden Urged to Stand ‘On the Side of Humanity’ and Back Waiver for Covid Vaccine Patents --The U.S. is facing sustained calls to end its opposition of a proposal to temporarily lift intellectual property rules for Covid-19 vaccines and related technology as soaring coronavirus cases ravage India and new reporting spotlights a debate within the Biden administration over whether to support the patent suspension effort to help tackle the global pandemic or prioritize Big Pharma’s interests.At issue, as the Washington Post reported Friday, is a proposal India and South Africa submitted to the World Trade Organization (WTO) last October to suspend Trade-Related Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) rules on Covid-19 vaccines and treatments to boost manufacturing capacity. It’s now cosponsored by 60 nations and backed by over 100 countries as well ashundreds of U.S. and international civil society organizations, former world world leaders and Nobel laureates, and some U.S. lawmakers.In addition to the U.S., other wealthy nations including the U.K. and Canada are blocking the proposal—which needs consensus to pass.The WTO’s TRIPS panel met Friday to discuss the proposal, and it’s now being revisedby its cosponsors.Asked Friday whether the U.S. would continue its opposition, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said the administration has not yet confirmed its stance and said the White House’s “overall objective is to provide as much supply to the global community and do that in a cost-effective manner.”According to the Post: “The debate has reignited decades-old tensions in global health, pitting such influential figures as Pope Francis, who backs the patent-waiver proposal, against philanthropist Bill Gates, who’s opposed. It has also challenged U.S. officials who have prioritized this nation’s coronavirus response but know that the virus’s continued spread and mutation overseas will eventually pose risks to Americans.” White House chief medial adviser Anthony S. Fauci and U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai discussed the proposal last week, the Post reported, with Fauci indicating support for it and Tai considering it. She indicated an openness last month when she told a virtual WTO conference that “we have to consider what modifications and reforms to our trade rules might be necessary.” She also got input on the matter from powerful philanthropist Bill Gates, the Postreported. Gates made clear Sunday that he’s opposed to lifting such patent protections.In addition, the Post reported, “other officials in the Commerce Department and the coronavirus task force warn that waiving the patents could backfire, including by handing intellectual property to international rivals. They also say that allowing new manufacturers to compete for scarce vaccine ingredients and expertise could hinder existing production, and that donating doses to countries in need would be more efficient.”
‘Cry No Tears for These Death Profiteers’: Pharma Stocks Plunge as Biden Backs Vaccine Patent Waiver --Yves here. I wish I could be enthusiastic about Biden saying he would support a waiver of Big Pharma Covid vaccine patents. After all, we’ve been pumping for this measure for some time, albeit mainly through the posts of Jomo Kwame Sundaram, who has written that the much of the Global South would not get vaccines until 2023 on the current schedule, and even then, in many cases, at higher prices than the Global North.However, if you look at various press stories on this plan, you’ll see two things. One is the abject falsehood that these supposedly backwards countries would have trouble making the vaccines, especially the novel (in terms of large scale use in humans) mRNA vaccines. Microbiology prof KLG debunked that via e-mail:It is complete and utter bullshit that, off the top of my head, India, Indonesia, possibly Singapore, Argentina, Chile, Brazil, South Africa, Canada, Australia, Japan, Korea, China, New Zealand, Mexico, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Cuba cannot manufacture these vaccines. There are undoubtedly other countries that can do it, too. This is routine molecular biology and pharmaceutical manufacture, albeit on a large scale, not the biological equivalent of the Large Hadron Collider at CERN. All any of these people need are the instructions and help with components. Would it take a serious effort on their part? No more than here and Europe.The second issue is that getting the waivers looks like it will take an ungodly amount of time and may not happen. I wonder if there was a more expeditious US-only route, like requiring vaccine makers to produce a certain number at cost under the War Production Act….or at least as an interim measure while the WTO process drags on? From the Wall Street Journal: Overriding objections from the pharmaceutical industry, U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai said the U.S. would support a proposal working its way through the World Trade Organization. Such a policy would waive the IP rights of vaccine makers to potentially enable companies in developing countries and others to manufacture their own versions of Covid-19 vaccines….Pharmaceutical companies, however, oppose it, saying the waiver won’t provide the short-term results proponents think it will, partly because of the challenge of setting up complex new production facilities to manufacture the vaccines…..Ms. Tai also warned that the talks at the WTO to approve a waiver policy will take time, given the consensus-based nature of the group, but that the U.S. will actively participate in negotiations…The current WTO agreement—the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights, or TRIPS—was introduced in 1995 upon the birth of the WTO itself, providing patent protection to technological innovations, including drugs and vaccines.
Federal judge overturns CDC's eviction moratorium – The Justice Department is appealing a federal judge's decision to vacate the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's temporary federal eviction moratorium, which had been extended multiple times since being enacted by the Trump administration last fall. The nationwide halt on most evictions due to the pandemic was seen as a temporary fix for millions of renters put at risk of losing their homes during the coronavirus pandemic.The CDC under the Biden administration had sought to extend the eviction moratorium through June 30. D.C. District Judge Dabney Friedrich ruled Wednesday on the side of the plaintiffs, who alleged that the CDC overstepped its authority by extending the eviction moratorium — which was first included in the March CARES Act passed by Congress — to all residential properties nationwide. "The pandemic has triggered difficult policy decisions that have had enormous real-world consequences. The nationwide eviction moratorium is one such decision," Friedrich writes in an opinion. "It is the role of the political branches, and not the courts, to assess the merits of policy measures designed to combat the spread of disease, even during a global pandemic." "The question for the Court is a narrow one: Does the Public Health Service Act grant the CDC the legal authority to impose a nationwide eviction moratorium? It does not." Brian Boynton, acting assistant attorney general in charge of the DOJ's civil division, said in a statement that the CDC's eviction moratorium "protects many renters who cannot make their monthly payments due to job loss or health care expenses." “Scientific evidence shows that evictions exacerbate the spread of COVID-19, which has already killed more than half a million Americans, and the harm to the public that would result from unchecked evictions cannot be undone," he added. “The department has already filed a notice of appeal of the decision and intends to seek an emergency stay of the order pending appeal."
Biden Administration Moves to Speed Aid to Renters - -— Two days after a federal judge struck down a national moratorium on evictions, the Biden administration said on Friday that it would accelerate the distribution of vast sums of rental aid that state and local governments have been slow to spend.The Treasury Department issued new rules meant to make it easier for tenants to gain access to the $46.5 billion in aid. They simplify applications, cover an expanded list of costs like moving expenses and hotel stays, and require programs to help tenants even if their landlords refuse to participate. Housing advocates praised the changes, which include an expansion of legal aid to tenants and a promise of advice to localities struggling to create the programs, which are intended to avert evictions caused by the economic shocks from the pandemic. But with about 400 state and local governments operating programs with varying degrees of urgency, the immediate effect of the changes is unclear. Some states, including New York and Florida, have not even begun to accept applications.The sums at stake rival the annual budget of the federal housing department. Congress approved $25 billion of emergency assistance in December and an additional $21.5 billion in March. But only a sliver of that money has reached landlords or tenants so far. New York has $800 million to spend just from the December allocation, and Florida has $871 million. California, with $1.5 billion to spend, has been accepting applications since March. But it has approved awards of only about $72 million, or 5 percent of its funds, and paid out less than $5 million.The Emergency Rental Assistance Program allocates money to states and to cities and counties with populations of at least 200,000 if they chose to run their own programs. Some have simply been slow to act: legislatures in New York and South Carolina did not authorize their programs until April.Others started quickly but hit obstacles: software glitches that made applications impossible to process or demands for documentation, like proof of income, that tenants found hard to produce. Many of the most disadvantaged tenants do not know the program exists.Some landlords have declined to participate, betting they have more to gain by forcing out tenants in arrears and attracting those better able to pay.
Biden administration withdraws plan to collect biometric data from immigrants - The Biden administration withdrew a Trump-era plan to vastly expand the collection of biometric data, including DNA, from individuals associated with immigration or naturalization benefits and requests. U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services said in a statement to NBC News on Friday that the administration had withdrawn the proposal “consistent with administration priorities to restore faith in the legal immigration system and reduce barriers and undue burdens to intending immigrants.” The plan would have expanded the government’s authority to collect and require biometric data from “every applicant, petitioner, sponsor, beneficiary, or other individual filing for or associated with any immigration or naturalization benefit or other request, unless waived or exempted,” the statement said. It also would have removed age restrictions, allowing the collection of data from children under 14. Former senior immigration official Ken Cuccinelli defended the collection of such data in September, saying, “Leveraging readily available technology to verify the identity of an individual we are screening is responsible governing.” “The collection of biometric information also guards against identity theft and thwarts fraudsters who are not who they claim to be,” he said. The proposal would have been a major expansion in the collection of such data had it gone into effect. The plan would have allowed the government to collect additional types of biometric data, such as DNA and voice scans, from immigrants. Critics of the plan said it was potentially in violation of privacy and civil rights and intrusive to those seeking access to the immigration process. Proponents of the proposal in the Trump administration said it was a safeguard against fraud and would improve vetting.
White House raises refugee cap to 62,500 - The White House on Monday lifted the refugee cap to 62,500, ending a dizzying policy reversal by sticking with President Biden's original plan to dramatically increase the number of refugees that can be admitted into the U.S. “Today, I am revising the United States’ annual refugee admissions cap to 62,500 for this fiscal year,” Biden said in a statement. “This erases the historically low number set by the previous administration of 15,000, which did not reflect America’s values as a nation that welcomes and supports refugees.” “It is important to take this action today to remove any lingering doubt in the minds of refugees around the world who have suffered so much, and who are anxiously waiting for their new lives to begin,” Biden added. The administration announced in a separate memorandum that of the 62,500 slots being made available, 22,000 would be allocated to refugees coming from Africa, 13,000 to those from the Middle East and South Asia, 6,000 to those from East Asia, 4,000 to those from Europe and Central Asia, 5,000 to those from Latin America and the Caribbean and the remaining 12,500 would remain unallocated. The president acknowledged that the country would not hit the cap this year, cautioning that it would take time to rebuild the infrastructure needed to take in and support tens of thousands of refugees as the U.S. has traditionally done. He expressed a commitment to setting the cap at 125,000 refugees during his first full fiscal year in office. “The sad truth is that we will not achieve 62,500 admissions this year,” he wrote in the announcement. “We are working quickly to undo the damage of the last four years. It will take some time, but that work is already underway.” The administration in February called for raising the refugee cap to 125,000 by the end of Biden's first year in office — a target that would require allowing 62,500 refugees fleeing war, persecution and natural disasters to enter the United States this fiscal year. The high figure was set to be a dramatic turnaround from the Trump administration, whose 15,000 cap during its last three years in office was an all-time low. But the Biden administration later hedged those figures as it was being hammered by Republicans for the influx of migrants at the southern border. In an April letter to the State Department, the White House said it would keep the 15,000 limit set under former President Trump. After a day of backlash, however, press secretary Jen Psaki walked that back slightly, suggesting only that Biden would be unable to meet his original goal and that the 15,000 was not final. “For the past few weeks, he has been consulting with his advisers to determine what number of refugees could realistically be admitted to the United States between now and Oct. 1. Given the decimated refugee admissions program we inherited, and burdens on the Office of Refugee Resettlement, his initial goal of 62,500 seems unlikely,” Psaki said at the time. Biden’s decision to set the cap at 62,500 even as he conceded it would be unlikely to be met further raises questions about why the White House did not just raise the cap in the first place and not hit its ceiling.
Biden Administration Reportedly Needs Billions In Extra Funding To Shelter Migrant Kids - With tens of thousands of unaccompanied migrant children staying in U.S. shelters, including many temporary ones set up in recent months, federal officials could need over a billion dollars to cover the mounting costs, according to documents published Friday by the New York Times. The Department of Health and Human Services has rushed to accommodate a surge in unaccompanied minors by opening shelters in convention centers and other unusual places, costing around $775 per child per day, the Washington Postreported last month. HHS was given permission this week to transfer $850 million from other parts of its budget to the unaccompanied minors program, and it could transfer another $847 million over the next few weeks, according to the document obtained by the Times. This probably will not be enough: The HHS unit charged with housing unaccompanied migrant children expects a budget shortfall of more than $4 billion by the end of this fiscal year, the internal document projected. The White House and HHS did not immediately respond to a request for comment. 22,194. That’s how many unaccompanied minors were in U.S. custody as of Thursday, roughly 97% of whom are staying in HHS shelters, according to federal figures. More than 600 children remain in Border Patrol Record numbers of children have crossed the U.S.-Mexico border without their parents this year, overwhelming federal resources and leaving many children in crowded conditions. HHS is normally supposed to shelter unaccompanied minors until the federal government can track down parents or other U.S.-based sponsors, but HHS initially didn’t have enough beds for all of these children, so thousands were stuck waiting in cramped, makeshift Border Patrol tents until shelter spaces opened up. As a result, HHS quickly ramped up its capacity by opening temporary shelters, allowing the Border Patrol stations to largely empty out but imposing a massive burden on the federal shelter system.
Allies of GOP leader vow to oust Liz Cheney - Top allies of House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) are vowing to oust Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), one of the harshest critics of former President Trump in either party, from her leadership post by the end of the month. They argue that the No. 3 Republican has repeatedly contradicted McCarthy and his team, undermining the party’s message and its efforts to take back the House majority in next year’s midterm elections. “There is no way that Liz will be conference chair by month’s end,” one key McCarthy ally told The Hill on Monday. “When there is a vote, it won’t be a long conference; it will be fast. Everyone knows the outcome.” The developments suggest it is not just members of the conservative House Freedom Caucus who are pushing to get rid of Cheney; senior lawmakers in the 154-member Republican Study Committee, the largest GOP caucus on Capitol Hill, have been openly critical of Cheney and are now trying to orchestrate her removal. “This is a broad range of lawmakers who have had it with her,” said a second McCarthy ally. “She’s a liability, and McCarthy’s as fed up as the rest of us that she is focused on the past rather than winning back the House.” Cheney, the GOP conference chairwoman who’s tasked with overseeing party messaging, has defended her against-the-grain approach, saying she’s simply trying to tug the party away from its veneration of a single figure and back to its pre-Trump policy ideals. Part of that responsibility, she says, is calling out Trump and his loyal foot soldiers for claiming that the 2020 election was stolen from him. “The 2020 presidential election was not stolen,” Cheney tweeted on Monday. “Anyone who claims it was is spreading THE BIG LIE, turning their back on the rule of law, and poisoning our democratic system.”
Lindsey Graham: GOP can't 'move forward without President Trump'--Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) on Thursday said the Republican Party can’t “move forward” without former President Trump.Graham made the remarks in an interview with Sean Hannity on Fox News. The comment comes as Republicans seek to remove their third-ranking House member, Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), from her leadership post amid her continue criticisms of the former president.“I would just say to my Republican colleagues, can we move forward without President Trump? The answer is no,” Graham said.“I’ve always liked Liz Cheney, but she’s made a determination that the Republican Party can’t grow with President Trump. I’ve determined we can’t grow without him.”Graham added that the GOP is making inroads with minorities due to Trump’s “economic populism” and “America First agenda.”“If you don’t get that, you’re making the biggest mistake in the history of the Republican Party,” Graham said. The comments come as the GOP grapples with Trump’s role in the party going forward.
Trump administration obtained phone records of journalists: Washington Post - -The Trump administration secretly obtained the phone records of Washington Post journalists who reported on allegations of Russian meddling in the 2016 election, the newspaper reported Friday, prompting concerns over freedom of speech. The Justice Department sent letters to three reporters -- Ellen Nakashima and Greg Miller, and former Post reporter Adam Entous -- saying that it had received work, cell or home phone records "for the period from April 15, 2017 to July 31, 2017," according to the Post. The newspaper was "deeply troubled by this use of government power to seek access to the communications of journalist," Post acting executive editor Cameron Barr was quoted as saying. "The Department of Justice should immediately make clear its reasons for this intrusion into the activities of reporters doing their jobs, an activity protected under the First Amendment," he continued. The American Civil Liberties Union said the Justice Department had been "spying" on the journalists "at the whims of an administration." "This should never have happened," the ACLU tweeted. "When the government spies on journalists and their sources, it jeopardizes freedom of the press." The Justice Department said it had followed "established procedures" with the requests, the Post reported, citing a department spokesman. The letters did not specify why the records were seized. But, near the end of that period, the three wrote a story about US intelligence which suggested that Jeff Sessions, who later became attorney general under Donald Trump, had discussed the Trump campaign with the Russian ambassador. They also wrote a story on the Obama administration's efforts to counter Russian interference in the 2016 election.
Algorithm Manipulation is the Only Thing Keeping Mainstream Media Alive -by Caitlin Johnstone — The emergence of the internet was met with hope and enthusiasm by people who understood that the plutocrat-controlled mainstream media were manipulating public opinion to manufacture consent for the status quo. The democratization of information-sharing was going to give rise to a public consciousness that is emancipated from the domination of plutocratic narrative control, thereby opening up the possibility of revolutionary change to our society’s corrupt systems. But it never happened. Internet use has become commonplace around the world and humanity is able to network and share information like never before, yet we remain firmly under the thumb of the same power structures we’ve been ruled by for generations, both politically and psychologically. Even the dominant media institutions are somehow still the same. So what went wrong? Nobody’s buying newspapers anymore, and the audiences for television and radio are dwindling. How is it possible that those same imperialist oligarchic institutions are still controlling the way most people think about their world? The answer is algorithm manipulation. Here's @YouTube's CEO openly admitting to:
1) Ranking corporate news higher in YT's algorithim
2)Suppressing independent news/politics channels
3)Suppressing people creating content "from their basement" (THE ORIGINAL PURPOSE of YT)
This is scandaloushttps://t.co/B8G2AYvBul
Last month a very informative interview saw the CEO of YouTube, which is owned by Google, candidly discussing the way the platform uses algorithms to elevate mainstream news outlets and suppress independent content. At the World Economic Forum’s 2021 Global Technology Governance Summit, YouTube CEO Susan Wojcicki told Atlantic CEO Nicholas Thompson that while the platform still allows arts and entertainment videos an equal shot at going viral and getting lots of views and subscribers, on important areas like news media it artificially elevates “authoritative sources”. “What we’ve done is really fine-tune our algorithms to be able to make sure that we are still giving the new creators the ability to be found when it comes to music or humor or something funny,” Wojcicki said. “But when we’re dealing with sensitive areas, we really need to take a different approach.”“When we deal with information, we want to make sure that the sources that we’re recommending are authoritative news, medical science, et cetera. And we also have created a category of more borderline content where sometimes we’ll see people looking at content that’s lower quality and borderline. And so we want to be careful about not over-recommending that. So that’s a content that stays on the platform but is not something that we’re going to recommend. And so our algorithms have definitely evolved in terms of handling all these different content types.”
"Content Modification" - Facebook's New Campaign Should Have Free Speech Advocates Freaking Out - Jonathan Turley - In 1964, Stanley Kubrick released a dark comedy classic titled “Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb.” The title captured the absurdity of getting people to embrace the concept of weapons of mass destruction. The movie came to mind recently with the public campaign of Facebook calling for people to change her attitudes about the Internet and rethink issues like “content modification” – the new Orwellian term for censorship.The commercials show people like “Joshan” who says that he was born in 1996 and grew up with the internet.” Joshan mocks how much computers have changed and then asks why our regulations on privacy and censorship cannot evolve as much as our technology. The ads are clearly directed at younger users who may be more willing to accept censorship than their parents who hopelessly cling to old-fashioned notions of free speech. Facebook knows that it cannot exercise more control over content unless it can get people to stop worrying and love the censor.There was a time when this would have been viewed as chilling: a corporate giant running commercials to get people to support new regulations impacting basic values like free speech and privacy. After all, Joshan shows of his first computer was a “giant behemoth of a machine” but that was before he understood “the blending of the real world and the internet world.”The Facebook campaign is chilling in its reference to “privacy” and “content modification” given the current controversies surrounding Big Tech. On one level, the commercial simply calls for rethinking regulatory controls after 25 years. However, the source of the campaign is a company which has been widely accused of rolling back on core values like free speech. Big Tech corporations are exercising increasing levels of control over what people write or read on the Internet. While these companies enjoy immunity from many lawsuits based on the notion of being neutral communication platforms (akin to telephone companies), they now censor ideas deemed misleading or dangerous on subjects ranging from climate denial to transgender criticism to election fraud.Moreover, Facebook knows that there is ample support for increasing censorship and speech regulation in Congress and around the world. Free speech is under attack and losing ground — and Facebook knows it.
New York AG office argues NRA only filed bankruptcy to avoid oversight -- The New York attorney general's office argued in court on Monday that top officials at the National Rifle Association (NRA) declared bankruptcy in January to avoid oversight, saying that the bankruptcy case should be dismissed. ABC News and Bloomberg reported that Gerrit Pronske, an attorney with Attorney General Letitia James's (D) office, argued that the filing from the NRA is a “poster child of bankruptcy filed in bad faith," and pointed to statements from the organization itself touting its financial health as well as testimony from a board member who said that CEO Wayne LaPierre made the filing without informing the board. "The NRA clearly and undisputedly had no financial reason to file bankruptcy," Pronske said during virtual hearing before a Dallas federal court. "The NRA is vastly solvent and filing bankruptcy is an abuse of this court's jurisdiction." NRA officials have denied that they are guilty of corrupt financial practices, which James has argued in her efforts to dissolve the New York-based organization. In January, LaPierre announced that the NRA would file for bankruptcy and reincorporate in Texas, while making no significant changes to operations. “The move will enable long-term, sustainable growth and ensure the NRA’s continued success as the nation’s leading advocate for constitutional freedom – free from the toxic political environment of New York,” the NRA said at the time. The Hill has reached out to the NRA for comment on the attorney general's latest remarks in court. James initially announced her lawsuit to dissolve the NRA last August, claiming at the time that it illegally "funneled millions" of dollars into the pockets of top executives. "The NRA is fraught with fraud and abuse, which is why, today, we seek to dissolve the NRA, because no organization is above the law," James said in a statement at the time.
Federal prosecutors recommend two-year sentence for former UAW President Dennis Williams for fraud and corruption - Federal prosecutors are requesting a 24-month sentence for the disgraced ex-president of the United Auto Workers, Dennis Williams, for his use of hundreds of thousands of dollars in corporate cash and workers' dues money to finance lavish getaways for himself and his fellow union bureaucrats, court filings revealed on Monday. Williams is one of 14 UAW officials and corporate executives to have been charged in a years-long federal corruption probe. Williams pleaded guilty last October to federal charges, which would have carried a maximum sentence of five years. However, the terms of his plea deal capped his sentence at two years. The charges against Williams, as with his successor, former UAW International President Gary Jones, stem from his role in the use of the UAW Region 5 annual conferences as an occasion for lavish, weeks-long “all-expenses-paid vacation[s]” in Palm Springs, as the sentencing memorandum describes it. Williams, Jones and numerous other top UAW officials stayed in luxurious villas for as long as a month, dined on lavish meals, and spent hours on high-end golf courses, paid for from a “master account” with the resorts, whose purpose was to conceal the nature of the expenses. While this fancy getaway had long been a fixture for the union, spending allegedly expanded “totally out of control” under Williams. For example, union bureaucrats spent $60,000 on cigars and related paraphernalia alone, as well as thousands of dollars on steaks and liquor. According to the memorandum, Williams spent $1,760 on four bottles of champagne specifically at the request of his wife. Williams is still attempting to throw his fellow gangsters under the bus by claiming that he had no specific knowledge of where the funds came from, attempting to pawn responsibility off onto Jones in particular, who was Region 5 Director while Williams was president. Williams absurdly claimed that he suspected the hundreds of thousands of dollars in funds came from the union's “flower fund,” a claim that prosecutors have rejected and cited as a reason for recommending the maximum sentence under the plea deal. In reality, prosecutors explained, Williams was instrumental in diverting the necessary additional funds to the union's annual bacchanalia. According to one anonymous UAW official who spoke with investigators, Williams responded to his concerns over the source of the funds by explaining that the money came from the union's “Regional Activity Fund.”
Judge delays Ghislaine Maxwell sex crimes trial until fall -- A judge on Monday delayed the trial of Ghislaine Maxwell, the British socialite and close confidant of Jeffrey Epstein, who is accused of helping Epstein recruit and sexually abuse teenage girls between 1994 and 2004. Maxwell’s trial, which was set to start on July 12, will now begin in the fall, according to court documents.. Maxwell’s lawyers requested that the trial be delayed after federal prosecutors unveiled two new charges against their client in March, including one count of sex trafficking conspiracy and one count of sex trafficking of a minor. Maxwell, 52, pleaded not guilty to the two new charges last month Her attorneys argued that they needed additional time to prepare their defense as a result of the new charges. U.S. District Judge Alison Nathan in Manhattan approved the request on Monday so Maxwell’s defense could “prepare for the additional charges” brought in March. She wrote that the charges filed in March “added a significant burden to the defense’s preparation for trial,” and that the defense counsel’s preparation efforts “have been and to some extent continue to be hampered by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.” “Travel constraints and other safety concerns resulting from the pandemic have slowed trial preparation and complicated the logistics of conducting investigations,” Nathan added. Nathan ordered prosecutors and lawyers for Maxwell to jointly propose a trial start date by May 10. She urged them to agree to "the earliest possible date this fall." "No additional delay is necessary or in the interests of justice," Nathan added. The Hill has reached out to Maxwell's team for comment. Reuters previously reported on the the trial delay. Maxwell now faces an eight-count indictment for allegedly helping carry out a sex trafficking scheme by Epstein, who died in jail while awaiting trial in August 2019.
Wall Street margin debt surges to record high - Wall Street’s S&P 500 index reached a new record high on Thursday on the back of the decision by the Fed the previous day that its continuous boosting of financial markets, through the injection of more than $1.4 trillion a year in asset purchases, would continue for a “long time.”The commitment came despite indications of increased US economic growth and rising inflation which, in times past, would have set the stage for a tightening of monetary policy. But such is a fear that even the hint of a move in that direction will spark a collapse of the speculative financial boom that Fed chair Jerome Powell took every opportunity at his press conference to rule it out.The extent of the speculative mania, which goes way beyond anything seen in the past, is indicated by broad financial trends and specific events.One of the most significant broad indicators is the escalation of margin lending in which investors borrow money from brokers to finance share purchases and trade in financial markets. The collateral for the loan is the financial asset purchased, with the broker able to demand more cash from the investor—a margin call—if its market value falls.The perils of margin trading were revealed last month with the collapse of the previously little-known family investment firm Archegos Capital as a result of such a call. It had amassed some $50 billion in loans from some of the world’s major banks, most notably Credit Suisse, and its demise left the banks with a total loss of $10 billion.But despite this warning sign, the escalation of margin debt is continuing. The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, a supposed Wall Street watchdog operating under the supervision of the Securities and Exchange Commission, has reported that margin debt at the end of March was a record $822 billion.This compares with the figure of $479 billion at the same time last year and more than double the peak of $400 billion in 2007 on the eve of the financial crisis of 2008. Placing these numbers in context, the Financial Times reported calculations by the London-based fund ABP Invest showing that in the 2000 dotcom and 2007 credit booms US margin debt reached a level equivalent to around 3 percent of gross domestic production. It is now equivalent to nearly 4 percent. But even the figures provided by FINRA are a major underestimation of the total debt involved because, through the use of financial derivatives, banks are able to further finance highly leveraged trading as was revealed in the collapse of Archegos.The cheap money provided by the Fed is enabling the orgy of speculation which has seen the transfer of trillions of dollars into the hands of the world’s richest individuals, while millions of people in the US and around the world confront a return to conditions not seen since the days of the 1930s Great Depression.
GameStop House Hearing this Thursday Will Look at Cozy Relationship of Wall Street’s Oversight Bodies: SEC, DTCC and FINRA – Pam Martens - The House Financial Services Committee is showing a decidedly gutsy streak under the Chairmanship of Congresswoman Maxine Waters. No less than four hearings this month will take a deep dive into the underpinnings of an out of control Wall Street.The kickoff begins this Thursday with the Committee’s third hearing on the wild trading action in shares of GameStop and other meme stocks. GameStop trades on the New York Stock Exchange but its trading pattern has looked more like that of a penny stock operated out of a boiler room – raising serious questions about the integrity of U.S. markets.On January 28, 2021 GameStop hit an intraday peak of $483, bringing its run from a share price of $18.84 on December 31, 2020 — a gain of 2,465 percent for a struggling brick and mortar retail outlet that sells video games. GameStop then took a bungee plunge back to earth, leaving thousands of late-in-the-game retail buyers licking their wounds with heavy losses. Wild price action was occurring at the same time in other so-called meme stocks.Waters has called the following people and entities to testify at Thursday’s hearing: Gary Gensler, the new Chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission; Michael Bodson, President and CEO of the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC); and Robert Cook, President and CEO of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA). Here’s the short take on each of these groups, in reverse order: FINRA is called a “self-regulator” because it is controlled by the industry in order to guarantee light-touch regulation. One of FINRA’s main objectives is to draw a dark curtain around all aspects of Wall Street’s trading and wealth transfer mechanisms in order to keep the pitch forks of the 99 percent at bay. As such, one of its key operations is running Wall Street’s private justice system where claims against Wall Street’s trading houses by both customers and employees are blocked from the sunshine of the nation’s courts and ushered into deeply-conflicted tribunals called mandatory-arbitration. FINRA is also where trade reporting and data dissemination occurs for a tiny sliver of light on trading in Wall Street’s Dark Pools – which we previously explained were actively engaged in trading the shares of GameStop during its big upward spike. But far more nefarious is the fact that the mega banks on Wall Street are allowed by their “regulators” to trade the shares of their own bank stocks in the Dark Pools the mega banks own. DTCC is apparently considered the Godfather of the crime families on Wall Street judging from the regular comments we receive about the DTCC at Wall Street On Parade. These commenters believe that the DTCC is actively engaged in some kind of naked short selling conspiracy with the hedge funds and/or mega banks on Wall Street. Like the New York Fed, the DTCC is literally owned by the Wall Street banks through outright share ownership of its common stock. You can get a good sense of who the largest common stock holders of the DTCC are by the makeup of its Board of Directors, which includes executives of the largest trading houses and Dark Pool operators such as JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, UBS and others.And, finally, there is the Securities and Exchange Commission, which has increasingly started to look like just another cozy self-regulator of Wall Street. Prior to the current chair Gensler, its past two Chairs have come straight from legally defending the biggest banks on Wall Street as outside counsel.But Gensler, who was praised for his independence by progressives, has suffered an embarrassing stumble after just 11 days in office. On April 28, Alex Young K. Oh abruptly resigned her post as Director of Enforcement at the SEC after just six days in office. Oh, Gensler’s pick as his crime fighting boss, had spent the last two decades at Big Law firm Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison, the law firm that major Wall Street banks repeatedly choose to fight their serial fraud charges.
$17.5 Million In Revenue And $5.4 Billion In Losses: Archegos Was A 300x-Levered Time Bomb For Credit Suisse - A bank's prime brokerage unit is supposed to be a safe, reliable and predictable generator of revenue, resulting from modest-margin transactions with a bank's hedge fund client base. It's safe because the bank's risk managers scour the bank's exposure to various hedge funds, and immediately flag any clients that become too big and a potential source of loss (it's also "safe" because the bank's prime brokerage management tends to make far less than the frontline Sales and Trading staff).That is, at least, the theory. The practice, as the recent Archegos fiasco demonstrated, is anything but.Case in point, the now infamous Credit Suisse disaster in its dealing with Archegos, which as of this moment have resulted in more than $5.4 billion in losses for the Swiss bank, and which as the FT reported today, resulted in a paltry CHF16 million (US$17.5 million) in revenue last year. In simplistic terms, this means that somehow the funding chain and the leverage Credit Suisse afforded to Archegos resulted in over 300x leverage in the wrong direction! As the FT notes this morning, the paltry fees Credit Suisse received from Archegos "raises further questions about the risks the lender was prepared to shoulder in pursuit of relationships with ultra-wealthy clients" and adds that "the low level of fees and high risk exposure have caused concern among the board and senior executives, who are investigating the arrangement, according to two people with knowledge of the process." It has also caused a flood of layoffs and terminations as the bank belatedly looked at its books - the infamous scene from Margin Call comes to mind here... ... and realized just how massive its exposure had been all along, and how nobody had any idea how big the loss would end up being until it was finally booked following the now infamous late-March liquidation frenzy.As the FT reports, the bank’s management was "particularly alarmed" after it was told that Hwang was not a private banking client of the group, suggesting there was little incentive to pursue his prime brokerage business, which is bizarre considering how much leverage via TRS and CFDs the bank had afforded the relatively obscure family office.As Risk.net first reported, Credit Suisse demanded a margin of only 10% for the equity swaps it traded with Archegos and allowed the family office 10-times leverage on some transactions. That was about double the leverage offered by fellow prime broker Goldman Sachs, which took minimal losses when unwinding its positions.And with the horse having long ago fled the barn, on Friday, António Horta-Osório was confirmed as the chair of Credit Suisse and promised an urgent review of the bank’s risk management, strategy and culture. Which is great, the question is i) why this wasn't done years ago, and ii) what kind of risk controls - if any - does Credit Suisse actually have on a client by client basis.
Archegos Reportedly Files For Bankruptcy As Banks Scramble To Recoup $10 Billion In Losses --The other day, we learned that Credit Suisse, which was left on the hook for $5 billion after dumping blocks of stocks owned by its prime brokerage on behalf of Archegos Capital Management, earned just $17MM in fees from its relationship with Archegos, revealing that the fund was a 300x leveraged time bomb for Credit Suisse.This helps explain why Lara Warner, the bank's former risk chief, apparently wasn't aware of the details of the relationship until days before the blowup: Archegos simply wasn't an important enough client.Now, hours after UBS CEO Ralph Hamers and Chairman Axel Weber launched an apology tour to investors after revealing a surprise loss tied to Archegos, the FT reports that Archegos is finally preparing to officially file for bankruptcy protection as Credit Suisse and the other half dozen prime brokers who also worked with the fund threaten lawsuits to try and recover whatever they can to help compensate for the more than $10 billion in losses reported so far.For the banks, this is now a push to recoup any losses that they can.According to the FT, the New York-based family office, infamously run by former Tiger Asia head Bill Hwang, has hired restructuring advisers to assess potential legal claims from banks and to plan for a winding down of its operations as it prepares to seek bankruptcy protection.The biggest question for Archegos is whether it might have recourse for how its brokers unceremoniously dumped the fund's positions, effectively forcing a firesale that send the fund's assets to zero.A person close to the situation said: “There is a question mark over how much the banks are entitled to claim and whether the fund has any recourse for the way the banks behaved when they dumped the stocks. It will come down to what indemnity was in the loan and swap agreements.""They have all lawyered up and threatened lawsuits," the person added. "The banks are all going to claim as much as they possibly can."To be sure, it's not exactly clear how much money the fund has left, though it reportedly had committed (with the same collateral being offered to multiple banks) all its roughly $10 billion in assets to derivatives trades that allowed the firm to take massive positions in companies including ViacomCBS without ever needing to disclose the stake.All told, the six banks that served as prime brokers for Archegos - Credit Suisse, Nomura, Morgan Stanley, UBS, MUFG and Mizuho - have reported some $10 billion in losses so far.
Shhh! Don’t Tell Congress that the Cabal It’s Investigating Over GameStop and Archegos Quietly Got SEC Approval to Jointly Run their Own Stock Exchange -- Pam Marten -- The House Financial Services Committee has released its official Memorandum outlining the general topics it wants to cover in tomorrow’s hearing on the wild trading action in GameStop and other meme stocks in January that has raised serious questions about U.S. market integrity. The implosion of the Archegos Capital Management family office hedge fund in March, which has generated losses of more than $10 billion thus far at global systemically important banks, will likely be a key topic when the Senate Banking and House Financial Services Committees haul Wall Street bank CEOs to hearings on May 26 and 27, respectively. An insightful paragraph in the Memorandum for the House hearing tomorrow reads as follows:“Testimony given at the first two GameStop hearings raised concerns about the market dominance of some capital market participants, as well as correlated risks arising from the interconnectedness of certain financial institutions. For example, Citadel LLC is a multi-service hedge fund and financial services company and [its related] Citadel Securities LLC, is one of the largest market makers and, according to its website, executes ‘approximately 47% of all U.S.-listed retail volume.’ Citadel Securities also, reportedly, handles almost as much trading volume as Nasdaq. Further, Citadel Securities along with market maker Virtu Financial, ‘account for more of the overall equity market than the New York Stock Exchange.’The statistic that Citadel Securities and Virtu Financial “account for more of the overall equity market than the New York Stock Exchange” comes from data provided in aFebruary 5 article at Quartz. Citadel Securities has an outrageous history of market abuses and yet regulators are allowing it to have ever greater control of U.S. trading. Virtu is no Boy Scout either. Accentuating the reality that trading in U.S. markets has morphed from stock exchanges charged with creating a level playing field for all comers to a concentrated cabal of dubious actors was the quiet announcement on May 5, 2020 that the SEC had approved the application to become a stock exchange by the Members Exchange (MEMX). Investors in MEMX include both Citadel and Virtu along with 5-count felon JPMorgan,serially-charged Citigroup, as well as Morgan Stanley, UBS, and Goldman Sachs, who were intimately involved in providing the leverage that blew up Archegos. Other investors in MEMX include TD Ameritrade, Bank of America Securities, BlackRock, Charles Schwab, Fidelity Investments, Flow Traders, Jane Street, Manikay Partners, Wells Fargo, and Williams Trading. Dark Pools owned by JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, UBS, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch have already taken substantial trading away from lit and regulated stock exchanges and moved it into their unlit and largely unregulated trading platforms known as Dark Pools. Rubber-stamping this cabal to further concentrate their power over trading on Wall Street by forming a joint stock exchange is one of the most insane actions ever taken by the Securities and Exchange Commission. No hearings were ever held on the matter by Congress. (It might be helpful to know that the approval came while Jay Clayton was serving as SEC Chair in the Trump administration. Clayton had previously represented 8 of the 10 largest Wall Street banks at Big Law firm Sullivan & Cromwell in the three years prior to taking his SEC seat.)
Gensler May Force Banks to Disclose Actual Owners of Stocks Under Archegos-Styled, Tricked-Up Derivative Contracts -By Pam Martens --The House Financial Services Committee will hold its third hearing today at noon on the GameStop and other meme stock trading fiascos of January. It will be the first time that the newly sworn in Chair of the SEC, Gary Gensler, gives testimony to Congress. Thus, the written statement that Gensler provided to the Committee has been eagerly awaited by the denizens (and charlatans) of Wall Street for insight into his plans for reining in market abuses and regulatory dodges. While Gensler was just as ambiguous on most fronts in his statement for today’s hearing as he was in his testimony at his confirmation hearing, he did provide a strong hint that he may use the SEC’s authority to force the mega banks to accurately report the beneficial owners of stocks held under tricked-up derivative contracts. Gensler wrote this in his statement for today’s hearing: “I wanted to mention briefly the events in late March related to the failure of the family office Archegos Capital Management and the significant losses incurred by several global financial institutions that provided prime brokerage services to Archegos. At the core of that story was Archegos’ use of total return swaps based on underlying stocks, and significant exposure that the prime brokers had to the family office. Under Dodd-Frank, Congress gave the SEC rulemaking authority to extend beneficial ownership reporting requirements to total return swaps and other security-based swaps. Among other things, I’ve asked staff to consider recommendations for the Commission about whether to include total return swaps and other security-based swaps under new disclosure requirements, and if so how.” Just how important this disclosure issue is to the integrity of U.S. markets and the confidence of companies to continue to list their shares on U.S. exchanges is best explained by what Archegos’ secret derivatives contract did to the shares of New York Stock Exchange listed ViacomCBS – a company in the S&P 500 and owner of one of the largest television networks in the U.S. According to reporting in the New York Times, one of the stocks held by Archegos was “$20 billion in shares of ViacomCBS,” which were “held through complex financial instruments, called derivatives, created by the banks.” Assuming that the New York Times report is correct, by the middle of March, according to our own math, Archegos held approximately 208 million shares of ViacomCBS, or a stunning 34 percent of its total outstanding shares. But because the global banks were claiming technical ownership of the shares for reporting purposes, Archegos was able to avoid making SEC filings that would have alerted both public investors and the Board of ViacomCBS that an insanely leveraged hedge fund, operated by a man with a shady regulatory past, Sung Kook (Bill) Hwang, had acquired this huge stake. As a result of margin calls that Archegos could not meet, shares in ViacomCBS went on a roller-coaster ride in March, crashing from a closing price of $100.34 on March 22 to a closing price of $48.23 just four days later on Friday, March 26. The stock has yet to recover. It closed trading yesterday at $39.10. This is certainly not the kind of stock market that engenders confidence among some of the largest companies in the world that have chosen to list their shares here and trade in U.S. markets.The tricked-up secret derivative contracts were not simply dodging disclosure obligations with the SEC, they were also dodging other essential rules that protect market integrity.
After Mega Banks Supervised by the Fed Lose Over $10 Billion to a Highly Leveraged Hedge Fund, Fed Puts Lipstick on a Pig in its Financial Stability Report --Pam Martens - Putting lipstick on a pig is what the Federal Reserve is attempting to do in the Financial Stability Report it released yesterday afternoon. Both the lipstick and the pig are captured in this paragraph on page 8 of the Fed’s report:“Banks remain well capitalized, and leverage at broker-dealers is low. Measures of hedge fund leverage are somewhat above their historical averages, but the data available may not capture important risks from hedge funds or other leveraged funds.” To unpack the scope of the Fed’s deception in this paragraph, one needs to first understand that as a result of the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act in 1999, the largest federally-insured banks on Wall Street now own the largest broker-dealers (trading casinos). If the “data available” is not capturing the full scale of risks between the hedge funds and the mega banks and the broker dealers they own, then there is zero evidentiary support for the Fed to state that “Banks remain well capitalized.”Making certain that the mega banks remain well capitalized should be the number one priority of the Fed and its team of bank examiners, since the last time the Fed was caught with its blinders on resulted in $29 trillion in cumulative bailouts to resuscitate a pulse back into the financial system of the largest super power in the world. One would have thought the Fed’s abject failure as a regulator in the leadup to the financial crisis of 2008 would have resulted in Congress stripping it of any supervisory role going forward. Instead, Congress fell victim to Wall Street lobbying and actually increased the Fed’s oversight role of the mega bank holding companies in its 2010 Dodd-Frank financial “reform” legislation. Every American is far worse off as a result of that Congressional sellout. What the Fed is attempting to sheepishly acknowledge in that oblique paragraph cited above is that 13 long years after the greatest financial crash since the Great Depression, it once again has no firm grip on the hidden dangers lurking at these mega Wall Street banks. Congress learned just how inadequate the Fed’s much ballyhooed stress tests of these banks are when media reports emerged in late March that the Archegos Capital Management hedge fund had blown up as a result of obtaining as much as 90 percent margin loans on a handful of highly concentrated stock positions from Fed-supervised banks. Those banks have thus far reported more than $10 billion in losses from Archegos. Archegos is just one of more than 3,000 family office-styled hedge funds operating in North America for which the Fed has no clarity. In Table 3 of the Fed’s most recent Financial Stability Report, it lists hedge fund assets in the U.S. financial system at $8trillion. But since it has no idea of how much exposure banks have to family office hedge funds, that figure is likely to be wildly underestimated.
Rampant Wall Street speculation: the fever chart of a terminally diseased system - Over the past year, the global financial system, above all Wall Street, has been in the grip of a speculative mania, the like of which has never been seen before in economic history. Two questions therefore immediately arise: how has this situation come about and what are its implications? In March 2020, as the COVID-19 pandemic began to make its effects felt and workers undertook wildcat strikes and walkouts to demand health measures to protect their lives and those of their families, the financial markets plunged. Wall Street was concerned that any effective health measures to contain the spread of the pandemic would result in a collapse in the bloated price of financial assets, above all stocks, that had been boosted by the trillions of dollars poured into the financial system by the US Federal Reserve and other central banks following the crash of 2008. The US government and the Fed rode once again to the rescue of Wall Street. The Trump administration organised a multi-billion-dollar bailout of the corporations under the CARES Act while the Fed stepped in to provide trillions of dollars of support for all areas of the financial system, including for the first time the purchase of stocks. Since then, on the back of this $4 trillion intervention and rising, as the Fed continues to purchase financial assets at the rate of more than $1.4 trillion a year, the world has seen an unprecedented orgy of financial speculation. Wall Street’s main stock index, the S&P 500, has risen by some 88 percent since its March 2020 lows, reaching record highs on multiple occasions throughout the past year. Margin debt, used to finance the speculation in shares, has reached record levels, and the yield on the lowest-rated corporate junk bonds—barely one step away from default—has fallen to historic lows. But the most egregious expression of the speculation has been the rise of the cryptocurrency market. Over the past year the most prominent cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, has risen by 600 percent, rising from about $7,000 per bitcoin to $54,000, reaching a high of $65,000 in the middle of last month. Last month Coinbase, a trading exchange for cryptocurrencies, launched itself on Wall Street with a floatation that put its market value at $85 billion, compared to its valuation of $8 billion in 2018, exceeding that of some of the world’s major banks and the valuation of the NASDAQ exchange on which it was launched. However, in recent days, even the level of bitcoin speculation has been put in the shade by another cryptocurrency, Dogecoin. It was created in 2013 as a joke. Whereas the promoters of Bitcoin insist that it has some intrinsic value because it may be used to organise financial transactions without the intervention of a bank or some other third party via a blockchain ledger system, no such claims are made for Dogecoin. Despite being worthless, Dogecoin has risen in price 11,000 percent this year alone. This week its market value reached $87 billion compared to $315 million a year ago. And as one cryptocurrency enjoys a rapid rise, speculators start a search for the next “big thing.” The Dogecoin phenomenon is not an isolated event. It seems to be an expression of what could be described as a new operating principle in the world of speculation—the more worthless the so-called asset, the higher its price.
JPMorgan memo warned $875 million payment was graft risk - JPMorgan Chase was warned by its compliance team over the “great risk” of corruption just days before it made the last of three transfers that totaled $875 million to a former Nigerian oil minister. The internal memo is set to be scrutinized in a London lawsuit brought by the West African nation. The U.S. bank is accused of ignoring red flags when it transferred funds between 2011 to 2013 from government accounts to Dan Etete, who had been convicted of money laundering. The current government says a contract awarded by one of its predecessors to explore the deep waters off the Gulf of Guinea was corrupt. European and Nigerian courts have been raking over the purchase by Eni SpA and Royal Dutch Shell Plc of the oil license in Africa’s largest crude producer a decade ago. While the energy giants were recently acquitted of corruption charges in Milan in a decision prosecutors could appeal, Nigeria’s government is continuing to seek compensation from JPMorgan. The memo disclosed at a London court hearing this week shows what JPMorgan managers knew about the oil contract and when, lawyers for the Nigerian government said in court documents. A spokesperson for the investment bank declined to comment. The government claims Etete distributed a portion of the funds received via the bank from the oil majors to corrupt former and serving senior public officials. The bank has denied any wrongdoing and says it’s being held responsible for not protecting the Nigerian people from their own government. The government says that by 2013 JPMorgan’s internal concerns over payments to Malabu Oil and Gas Ltd. — a firm controlled by Etete — were escalating to more senior members of the bank. “In light of Malabu’s reported connection to the alleged Nigerian corruption scheme, there would be great risk presented if JPMC continues to process wires involving Malabu,” a compliance officer based in the U.S. wrote in a memo dated Aug. 23, 2013. Just six days later, JPMorgan made a payment of $75.2 million to the Malabu account. Lawyers for the Nigerian government said in court Wednesday it wants to know how the memo was compiled and asked a judge for more emails and documents from the compliance team.
Here’s the $47.6 Billion Stock Portfolio Bill Gates Will Keep to Himself after His Divorce from Melinda --By Pam Martens --It was just 11 days ago that we wrote the following about family office hedge funds like Archegos that are failing to publicly file a list of their stock positions along with the market values, as the SEC requires for entities managing more than $100 million:“Another example is billionaire Bill Gates’ family office, Cascade Investment LLC. According to CaproAsia it ranks number 3 among the world’s largest family offices with $51 billion in assets. Cascade Investment LLC hasn’t filed a 13F form with the SEC since the quarter ending September 30, 2008 (coincidentally, the same quarter that Wall Street blew itself up, taking the stock market along with it). At that point in time, Cascade Investment showed $4.32 billion in stock positions. Its only filings since that time simply show what stocks it’s acquired and sold, but not the 13F which would show the full positions in its portfolio and their value.”Since yesterday’s announcement that Bill and Melinda Gates have decided to divorce, we decided to wade through all of those individual filings by Cascade Investment. Here’s what we found. First, Bill Gates lists himself as the sole member of Cascade Investment and makes clear that the stocks that he and Melinda own jointly through the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Trust are completely separate from his direct ownership of what’s in his family office hedge fund, Cascade Investment, which operates out of Kirkland, Washington. According to SEC filings dating back to 2015, Gates owns the following through Cascade Investment, based on yesterday’s closing prices:
- AutoNation $1.9 Billion
- Berkshire Hathaway Class B $1.69 billion
- Canadian National Railway $11 Billion
- Deere $11.7 Billion
- Ecolab Inc. $6.9 Billion
- Liberty Global PLC $235.6 Million
- Otter Tail Corporation $165.5 Million
- Republic Services $11.75 Billion
- Waste Management $2.3 Billion
That’s a cool $47.6 billion that it would appear Bill Gates has carved out for himself. And that doesn’t include any cash or money market funds that are sitting in the portfolio.We also couldn’t track down what happened to the large position that Cascade held in 2015 in Strategic Hotels & Resorts, Inc. According to an SEC filing in 2015, Cascade owned 9.8 percent of the company’s stock, or 26,912,800 shares. We found no subsequent filing indicating the shares had been sold or acquired. However, on December 11, 2015, a unit of Blackstone announced that they were acquiring the company and paying existing common stock holders $14.25 in cash. That would have been a nice haul of $383.5 million for Gates, assuming he cashed in his shares. Blackstone subsequently flipped the company less than a year later in a sale to a Chinese firm, Anbang Insurance Group Co. Ltd.
Yellen to pick new comptroller of the currency: report -- Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is reportedly planning to appoint a top supervisor from the Federal Reserve to become the next acting comptroller of the currency, a post responsible for overseeing the country’s national banks and federal savings associations. Yellen is reportedly expected to select Michael Hsu, associate director of the Federal Reserve’s bank supervision and regulation division, to the first deputy comptroller position, The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday, citing a person familiar with the matter. Once Hsu joins the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), he would then be elevated to acting comptroller, according to the Journal. Yellen is reportedly expected to appoint Hsu in the coming weeks, the Journal reported. On The Money: McConnell rules out GOP support for Biden families plan... Blake Paulson, who serves as acting comptroller, will reportedly move to the positions of deputy comptroller and chief operating officer. According to the Journal, Hsu, in his current position at the Fed, helps supervise the largest financial firms in the country, including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo & Co. The OCC made headlines last week after Senate Democrats increased pressure on the federal bank regulator to eliminate a Trump-era rule that they say lets lenders avoid state interest rate limits and exploit vulnerable consumers.
Fed official tapped as interim OCC chief- Report — Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reportedly plans to name a senior Federal Reserve official to lead the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency on an interim basis. Michael Hsu, an associate director of bank supervision at the Fed, will be appointed within weeks by Yellen to lead the OCC, according to a Wall Street Journal report published Monday afternoon. After joining the OCC, Hsu will be assigned the title of first deputy comptroller, effectively putting him in charge of the national bank regulator until a formal nominee for comptroller of the currency can be confirmed by the Senate — a process that routinely stretches months. To date, the Biden administration has not announced a nominee to lead the OCC. More than three months after President Biden took office, some analysts have blamed the administration for leaving the agency on autopilot from the Trump administration by not naming an acting comptroller more quickly. In the meantime, the agency has been led by Blake Paulson, a 36-year OCC veteran. According to the Journal, Paulson will remain at the OCC as a deputy comptroller and retain his title as chief operating officer. The next comptroller of the currency will face a long list of policy challenges and decisions upon taking office, including a redux of a plan to modernize the Community Reinvestment Act. Advocates have urged the Biden administration to install an acting comptroller to prepare certain policy action items that a Senate-confirmed comptroller could implement soon after taking office. At the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, acting Director Dave Uejio is serving that role as Rohit Chopra awaits Senate action on his nomination to lead the CFPB. The incoming comptroller will also need to decide the fate of the agency’s controversial “true lender” rule, a regulation that has come under intense scrutiny by Congress after consumer advocates claimed the rule would undercut state interest rate caps across the country. There’s also the matter of an unpublished “fair access” rule, championed by former acting comptroller Brian Brooks. That rulemaking was intended to punish banks for making business decisions deemed “political” such as withholding services from the fossil fuel industry. The next comptroller will likely decide whether to implement, revise or throw out the rule.
Hsu officially named as acting head of OCC— Michael Hsu will take over as the acting head of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency on Monday, the Treasury Department announced Friday. Hsu, a senior official at the Federal Reserve who manages large bank supervision, will succeed Acting Comptroller Blake Paulson, who took the helm of the agency on an acting basis at the end of the Trump administration. Paulson will remain on as chief operating officer. “It is a tremendous honor to serve as Acting Comptroller of the Currency alongside those who ensure our federal banking system operates in a safe, sound, and fair manner,” Hsu said in an OCC press release. “I appreciate the confidence Secretary Yellen has shown in me by appointing me to this important post.” The decision marks the end of a more than three-month period in which the Biden administration struggled to appoint an interim leader to fill the key leadership spot. Paulson was viewed by some as a holdover from the Trump administration, and critics said the delay in Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen naming a successor could have impacted President Biden's financial policy agenda. It is still unclear whom the administration plans to nominate to serve as the Senate-confirmed comptroller. It is still unclear whom the administration plans to nominate to serve as the Senate-confirmed head of the OCC.Bloomberg News Before being tapped for the OCC role, Hsu served as an associate director of large bank supervision at the Fed, where he led the agency’s Large Institution Supervision Coordinating Committee Program. Hsu has previously worked at the International Monetary Fund, the Treasury Department and the Securities and Exchange Commission. The appointment was officially made by Yellen, whose time as chairman of the Fed overlapped with Hsu’s tenure at the central bank. “He is among the most talented and principled regulatory officials that I have had the pleasure of working with,” Yellen said in a Treasury press release, adding, “I am confident he will execute this role with integrity and efficiency.” Hsu began his time Washington as a staff attorney for the Fed. He holds a law degree from New York University and a graduate degree in finance from George Washington University.
Congress's inaction on ILCs, fintech charters worries bankers— Critics of nontraditional bank charters like trusts and industrial loan companies have often looked to Congress to intervene and hold back a potential wave of new entrants into the banking system. But amid an uptick in new charter bids, lawmakers do not appear any closer to taking legislative action. Echoing the fears of many bankers, lawmakers have amplified their concerns about the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency recently approving cryptocurrency firms for national trust charters that do not require deposit insurance, as well as approvals by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. for new ILCs. Yet besides a House subcommittee hearing on the subject last month, restricting nontraditional charters isn't on Congress's radar. There is no real legislative movement on the issue. Observers say the lack of any action by Congress will likely result further expansion by nontraditional firms into the banking sector. “The longer these nontraditional charters, particularly those aligned with powerful tech platform companies, are allowed to operate, the more they restructure the financial services market,” said Karen Petrou, managing partner at Federal Financial Analytics. “The market doesn't care what Congress does until Congress does it. So things are going to change irreparably.” In fact, there appears to be a more concerted focus among some lawmakers to encourage fintech firms to offer banking services. Sen. Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyo., has made waves by forming a financial innovation caucus. Still, banks, consumer advocates and other critics are raising more alarms of late as the OCC has approved several applications for crypto entities and other tech-focused firms. The banking industry has also revived criticism of the ILC charter as it fights a bid by the Japanese e-commerce giant Rakuten to get FDIC approval. Some states are passing their own laws to allow special purpose depository institutions to operate. “What triggers these reactions and hearings is when you have applications," said Paul Merski, group executive vice president for congressional relations and strategy at the Independent Community Bankers of America. "There was a long period of time — it probably was about eight years where there wasn't any interest or applications for charters —but now you have Rakuten, which is basically the Amazon of Japan. … So you're really playing with fire by changing the entire financial landscape.” Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, said last week that he wants to close a loophole that allows commercial companies to own ILCs and ensure that fintech firms aren’t able to skirt consumer protection regulations. “Nonbanks are using ILC and OCC chartering loopholes to get around banking laws and consumer protections,” Brown said. But when the House Financial Services subcommittee on financial institutions and consumer protection held a hearing last month examining the risks and benefits of certain financial institution charters, there was no consensus. Rep. Ed Perlmutter, D-Colo., the chairman of the subcommittee, said the panel may “have to have a couple more hearings on this.”
Banking groups to Congress- Don't throw out 'true lender' rule— A group of bank and fintech trade associations urged Congress not to strike down a rule defining the “true lender” in bank-nonbank partnerships, the latest salvo in a long-running fight between consumer groups and financial firms. The rule, finalized by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency in October, has come under significant scrutiny from Democrats on Capitol Hill in recent months. Consumer advocates say the regulation would make it far easier for predatory lenders to evade state interest rate caps. But in a letter dated May 6 addressed to Senate leadership, the trade groups asked Congress to reject Senate Joint Resolution 15, introduced by Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., in March. If approved through a simple majority vote, the resolution would throw out the OCC’s rule using the Congressional Review Act. “Changes should be made to the True Lender Rule,” the groups conceded in the letter. But they also cautioned that a congressional rejection “would create significant legal impediments to creating a much-needed framework for providing safe and affordable credit to consumers.” Under the Congressional Review Act, Congress has the authority to undo policy actions taken by federal regulators. If a regulation is successfully blocked by Congress, future regulators are prevented from issuing a subsequent rule that is “substantially the same” as what was struck down. The trade associations — including the American Bankers Association, American Fintech Council, Consumer Bankers Association, Electronic Transactions Association, Independent Community Bankers of America and the Mid-Sized Bank Coalition of America — said that constraint could seriously impede the OCC from issuing an improved “true lender” rule in the future with more built-in consumer protections. “A vote of disapproval using the CRA would prevent the OCC from considering whether other factors could supplement the agency’s true lender framework,” the trade groups wrote. “We believe the True Lender Rule could be improved if it establishes expectations for regulatory compliance and consumer protection that will limit the risk of predatory and abusive lending.” “Invalidation of the True Lender Rule removes that opportunity to create a more fulsome true lender framework,” the groups said.
BankThink The cyber threat looming over virtual currencies Virtual currencies are not only here to stay but are becoming an ever-increasing part of the U.S. financial system. The still-growing number of cryptocurrencies have an aggregate global market capitalization of over $2 trillion. Bitcoin, the oldest and most well known, currently has a global value of over $1.1 trillion alone. But as digital currencies expand, so too does the risk that they will be targeted by hostile nations and cyber criminals. According to a December 2020 survey by Cornerstone Advisors, more than 15% of U.S. consumers — 40 million people — own some form of cryptocurrency. And Bitcoin is increasingly embedding itself in the global economy. Recent stories have trumpeted Coinbase’s highly successful initial public offering, as well as investments of billions of dollars in Bitcoin by public companies such as Elon Musk’s Tesla and Microstrategy. An increasing number of major U.S. banks are investing in the Bitcoin boom. Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, BBVA, USAA, U.S. Bancorp and State Street all have recently announced the introduction of Bitcoin-related products, services, investments and ventures. But this may be a ticking time bomb due to growing concerns that the blockchain — the fundamental online transactional and ownership ledger for all bitcoin transactions — may be exposed to a potential catastrophic attack from new quantum computer technologies Such an attack could wreak havoc on the U.S. financial system and the economy. The question is whether the government, regulators and the financial services industry, including the growing crypto industry, will start now to take the necessary steps to prevent a future crypto 9/11. Picture such an attack compromising millions of ownership records and transactions, which would have catastrophic consequences for the nation’s markets, financial institutions, retirement funds and individual investors. It is a major article of faith among virtual currency proponents that the blockchain’s encryption code, which is based on computer URL algorithms, is extremely secure and impervious to hacking. This view, however, is now being questioned and experts have begun to raise red flags about the potential for a crypto cyberattack. As early as 2015, a Rand Corp. report on the national security implications of virtual currency observed that virtual currency could be severely degraded by a “determined and sophisticated cyber opponent.” At the World Economic Forum in 2019, FireEye, the global cybersecurity company, issued a report analyzing the security paradigms surrounding blockchain networks, noting that it has already observed attacks targeting blockchain technology. How would this happen? A recent article in a crypto industry publication reported that “Quantum computers could crack Bitcoin by 2022.” It cited experts who have concluded that powerful quantum “supercomputers” currently being developed could be used to crack the blockchain. Alphabet CEO Sundar Piachi has asserted that the block chain could be compromised by quantum computers in as little as the next two years. Alphabet’s subsidiary, Google, recently developed one of the world’s first commercial quantum computers. The implication is clear: Governments are developing computer systems that will have the capability to launch an attack. Some analysts were focused on when quantum computer will become commercially available. Anderson Chang, the CEO of the London-based cryptography company Post-Quantum, argued in a recent interview that that could come relatively soon.
PPP funding poised to dry up - Paycheck Protection Program funding is all but exhausted. The Small Business Administration said late Tuesday that the program has about $8 billion remaining, with those funds reserved for community development financial institutions, minority depository institutions and other mission-oriented lenders. Another $6 billion of funding has been reserved to address issues with unresolved hold codes. The agency said it would continue funding businesses impacted by the pandemic through its $28.6 billion Restaurant Revitalization Fund and the $16 billion Shuttered Venue Operators Grants program. The Economic Injury Disaster Loan program also remains open. The SBA’s regular lending programs, including 7(a) and 504, have seen an uptick in activity in recent weeks. Through April 30, the 7(a) program reported total volume of $13.5 billion for the 2021 fiscal year, up 5% from a year earlier. “SBA is committed to delivering economic aid through the many COVID relief programs it is currently administering and beyond,” the agency said in a Wednesday release. Congress revived PPP lending with a $284 billion appropriation as part of a stimulus law enacted late last year. The program's expiration date was extended from March 31 to May 31 earlier this year, but lawmakers did not include additional funding. Sen. Ben Cardin, D-Md., sponsored legislation last month intended to direct more PPP loans to farmers, ranchers and self-employed workers, but that proposal also lacked additional funding. Consumer Bankers Association CEO Richard Hunt said in a press release Tuesday that the PPP was a “herculean effort” that “saved millions of jobs and supported struggling communities when the needed it the most." The focus now should shift to the PPP forgiveness process, Hunt said. Through May 2, the SBA reported approving 10.8 million PPP loans for $780.4 billion, including $258.2 billion approved since the program reopened in January. Through April 25, the agency reported forgiving 2.9 million loans for $242.1 billion.
Traditional SBA lending on upswing as PPP's days appear numbered -Merchants Bancorp in Carmel, Ind., is back on track with Small Business Administration lending after the pandemic dealt its program several hard blows. The $9.7 billion-asset Merchants had just begun to establish itself as an SBA lender early last year when fallout from government shutdown orders decimated its nascent business. Carefully developed relationships pulled back and lending opportunities dried up. “It was Armageddon, chaos, a lot of confusion,” Jeff Scott, the company’s SBA group president, said in a recent interview. “We lost about 100% of the pipeline we’d originated.” A year later, Merchants has rebounded. Since resuming traditional SBA lending in June, Merchants has generated $3 million in revenue from selling the guaranteed portions of its loans, with more than half coming in the first quarter. The company also made $94 million of Paycheck Protection Program loans last year as it waiting for the economy to recover. Merchants’ experience is playing out on a wider scale. Last year, once PPP got up and running, lending under SBA’s regular 7(a) program slowed, even after Congress authorized enhancements to make it more attractive. Regular 7(a) lending totaled $22.6 billion in fiscal 2020, the lowest level in six years. As PPP enters what will likely be its final month, a large number of lenders are looking to make more traditional SBA loans. Bankers said demand for 7(a) and 504 loans is up sharply, spurred by enhancements embedded in the federal government’s stimulus efforts. Guarantees for 7(a) loans were increased from 75% to 90%. User fees for 7(a) and 504 loans have been waived and the SBA has been making several months of loan payments for borrowers in both programs. Through April 23, 7(a) originations were up 9% from a year earlier and 1% from the same period in 2019, totaling $12.8 billion. Originations of 504 loans were up 22% from a year earlier to $4.1 billion. The 7(a) program enjoyed its best two weeks of 2021 between April 9 and April 23. More big weeks are likely to follow as the Paycheck Protection Program expires, said Tony Wilkinson, president and CEO of the National Association of Government Guaranteed Lenders.
Banks resume risk-taking in consumer lending -After a year of pandemic-induced caution in consumer lending, bankers are starting to reacquaint themselves with risk. Lending standards have not yet recovered from the massive tightening in 2020, and banks remain somewhat hesitant about lending to consumers with lower credit scores. But a recent Federal Reserve survey suggests some normalization in underwriting as vaccinations and fiscal stimulus help fuel an economic rebound. Many U.S. consumers have emerged from the pandemic’s darkest days in better financial shape than they were before. “Consumers are flush with cash, and they’ve been paying down debt,” said Piper Sandler analyst Scott Siefers. “That confluence of factors has made banks much more tolerant of taking on risk again.” Standards for credit card and auto loans generally remained more stringent than they were before the pandemic, according to the Federal Reserve’s April survey of senior bank loan officers. But those standards did loosen in the first quarter, the survey found, continuing a thaw that began late last year. Some banks reduced the minimum credit score required for credit cards and auto loans, and some bumped up borrowing limits on card accounts, according to the survey. In one sign of a return to greater normalcy, 14 banks told the Fed that they had eased their standards for credit card applications, while only one had tightened its criteria. Most banks responded that they kept their standards basically unchanged. A similar trend played out with auto loan applications. Only one bank tightened its standards for approving new borrowers, a sharp reversal from the extreme stringency of the pandemic’s early days. “It’s a normal migration,” said John Hecht, a Jefferies analyst. “There doesn't seem anything out of whack or anything unusual about the fact that lenders are loosening now based upon what's going on in the world.” The trends found by the Fed are not surprising and should continue as long as the economic recovery stays on track, agreed Megan Fox, an analyst at Moody’s Investors Service. Banks built up hefty reserve cushions early in the pandemic in case they suffered losses on loans. But massive amounts of fiscal support have helped ensure their consumer loan books continue to perform, she said.
Federal Reserve solicits comments on debit routing update -- To make clear that debit card issuers should allow merchants a choice for routing card-not-present debit payments, the Federal Reserve is seeking public comment on proposed changes to Regulation II. The regulation allows the government to cap interchange fees on debit transactions for larger issuers, as well as to allow merchants to reduce costs by offering the choice of an independent debit network at the point of sale. In announcing the public comment period, the Fed emphasized that this choice isn't as widely available for card-not-present transactions. This lack of support eliminates "the ability of merchants to choose between competing networks when routing such transactions, an issue that has become increasingly pronounced because of continued growth in online transactions, particularly in the COVID-19 environment," the Fed said in its announcement Friday. The proposed revisions would state that card-not-present transactions are a "particular type of transaction" for which two unaffiliated payment card networks must be available, the central bank said. Additionally, the proposed revisions would clarify the responsibility of the debit card issuer. The issue was brought to forefront when Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell responded late last year to a letter from Democratic leaders requesting that enforcement actions be taken against the card brands not complying with the law, initially established in 2010. Powell indicated that the Fed would be looking into the debit situation. The Federal Trade Commission had also brought attention to the matter by probing Visa and Mastercard's debit transaction routing process. Various merchant groups have not only pushed for lower interchange rates and thus supported the enactment of Reg II, they have also seen the need for tighter enforcement on the routing issue for online transactions. The Merchant Advisory Group, which informs merchants of trends and regulations in the payments industry, said in a media statement that it is "supportive of the recently released clarification from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors which states the need for two unaffiliated networks be available for all debit transactions." "This move further injects competition and transparency into the market and allows for a more balanced payments system," the group said.
Goldman Orders Employees To Report Back To The Office In June --A week ago, we reported that JP Morgan had given its employees their final notice that working-from-home had finally come to an end, and that they should prepare to report back to the office later this month.Not to be outdone, the top brass at Goldman Sachs, already well aware of CEO David Solomon's feelings about remote work, have reportedly just informed their employees that they should prepare to return to the office next month, with front-office staffers in the investment bank set to return by mid-June.The investment bank is planning to tell staff that they should be prepared by mid-June to work from offices again, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The move follows a mandate last week from JPMorgan Chase & Co. chief Jamie Dimon, seeking to return his workforce in rotations from early July. Vanguard Group, with about 17,300 employees, said it’s planning a hybrid model for most of its staff.Goldman Chief Executive Officer David Solomon joins Dimon in counting on an expanding vaccination drive to hasten the revival of pre-pandemic routines in an industry where legions have spent 14 months working remotely. The duo has been at the forefront in sketching out the most pressing timelines to refill towers, moves that are likely to put pressure on other firms in finance and beyond.And Goldman likely won't be the last US investment bank or consulting firm to summon employees back to the office, according to a recent survey cited by Bloomberg.An Accenture Plc survey of 400 North American financial-services executives found that almost 80% prefer that workers spend four to five days in the office when the pandemic is over. Such plans could face resistance from the ranks. Many employees want to hang on to flexible schedules after proving they could stay productive while working from home, according to Accenture. Especially now that NYC plans to "fully reopen" by July 1, with the subway to return to 24/7 service in a few weeks.
Richard Cordray's return is a warning sign for student lenders -Lenders could be clashing with an old nemesis soon. Richard Cordray, 62, has been named chief operating officer of federal student aid, putting him in charge of the U.S. Department of Education’s $1.6 trillion portfolio of federal student loans. Cordray cracked down on banks, for-profit colleges and student loan servicers during a six-year tenure as director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau under then-President Barack Obama. He left the CFPB to run for governor of Ohio in 2018, losing to Mike DeWine, a Republican. The appointment is a sign that student lenders could face increased scrutiny under the Biden administration. Cordray is an ally of Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., the primary advocate of broad-based student loan cancellation. He will be responsible for managing the student financial assistance programs authorized under Title IV of the Higher Education Act of 1965, including grants, work-study programs and loans for students attending college or career school, the Education Department said in a press release Monday. “Cordray has a strong track record as a dedicated public servant who can tackle big challenges and get results,” Secretary of Education Miguel Cardona said in a statement. “I am confident that under his leadership, Federal Student Aid will provide the kind of service that our students, families, and schools deserve." In his new role, Cordray is expected to work closely with Rohit Chopra, Biden's nominee to lead the CFPB. Chopra, who is still waiting for confirmation from the Senate, served five years as the CFPB’s first student loan ombudsman. Cordray is expected to reinvigorate the Education Department's consumer protection role. More than 300,000 borrowers have filed defense claims alleging schools defrauded them, and advocates have long urged the Education Department to provide relief. The department has the power to issue subpoenas and levy fines on institutions of higher education. It also can issue notices of intent to terminate the eligibility of an institution or third-party provider to receive Title IV aid. Private originations are dominated by Discover Financial Services, with a roughly $10 billion portfolio, and SLM Corp., better known as Sallie Mae, which has $21 billion in private education loans outstanding. Traditional banks have largely exited the student lending. Last year, Wells Fargo announced that it would stop offering student loans. Meanwhile, refinancing of student loans has become a profitable niche for both banks and fintechs like SoFi, the San Francisco lender that made its name cultivating loyalty among debt-saddled millennials.
What Supreme Court’s FTC ruling means for LendingClub -One of the biggest winners from a recent Supreme Court decision involving the Federal Trade Commission is a Silicon Valley consumer lender that was not even a party to the lawsuit. LendingClub has been mired in a three-year legal fight with the FTC over allegedly deceptive business practices. But the San Francisco-based company now appears poised to reach a favorable settlement following a high court ruling that undermined the FTC’s authority to seek restitution. “I think that what the FTC had was a very, very aggressive tool that has now been effectively blunted,” said David Fioccola, a lawyer at Morrison Foerster. The case before the Supreme Court involved the payday lending baron Scott Tucker. The FTC had alleged that Tucker had engaged in deceptive lending practices and ordered him to pay $1.27 billion in restitution and disgorgement. But Tucker, a onetime race-car driver who was a subject of the Netflix docuseries “Dirty Money” and later went to prison, argued that the FTC did not have the authority under federal law that it had been claiming. The agency was interpreting one section of the FTC Act as giving it the ability to directly go to court to obtain monetary relief, effectively bypassing administrative processes. The Supreme Court agreed. Justice Stephen Breyer, who wrote the 9-0 decision, noted in the opinion that the FTC still has the opportunity to seek restitution under other statutory provisions. But doing so is likely to be slower and more cumbersome, which could give consumer lenders more leverage in cases filed by the FTC. The FTC and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau share authority to enforce consumer financial protection laws against nonbanks. “This is a full-body blow to the FTC’s enforcement powers and places a significant amount of more recent FTC orders for monetary relief in jeopardy,” lawyers at Manatt Phelps & Phillips wrote in a note about the decision. Consumer advocates expressed disappointment with the ruling. Ed Mierzwinski, senior director of federal consumer programs at the U.S. Public Interest Research Group, said in a press release that the decision leaves the door open for other bad actors to follow Tucker’s lead without fear of serious financial repercussions. In the wake of the ruling, some industry lawyers have predicted that the CFPB, which may soon be headed by former FTC Commissioner Rohit Chopra, will seek to fill the enforcement void left by the Supreme Court ruling. State attorneys general could also devote more resources to consumer finance enforcement, though predictions during the Trump presidency about a likely wave of cases by blue-state AGs failed to pan out. There is also the possibility that Congress will pass a new law to grant to the FTC the wide authority that the agency asserted prior to the April 22 court decision. “We urge Congress to act swiftly to restore and strengthen the powers of the agency so we can make wronged consumers whole,” acting FTC Chairwoman Rebecca Kelly Slaughter said in a written statement after the ruling. For LendingClub, the implications of the Supreme Court’s decision are relatively straightforward. In a 2018 lawsuit, the FTC alleged that the online consumer lender deceived borrowers, who were often charged origination fees of $1,000 or more, with advertising claims that its loans did not carry hidden fees. LendingClub called the allegations unwarranted, both legally and factually, and fought them in court.
CFPB investigating U.S. Bancorp over consumer sales practices - U.S. Bancorp is facing regulatory scrutiny over how it sells products to consumers. The $553.8 billion-asset company is under investigation by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau regarding “certain of the company’s consumer sales practices,” according to a securities filing this week. U.S. Bancorp said that it “has responded and continues to respond to the CFPB.” The Minneapolis-based company added that it is “cooperating fully with all pending examinations, inquiries and investigations, any of which could lead to administrative or legal proceedings or settlements.” The CFPB did not immediately respond to a request for comment. A U.S. Bancorp spokesperson said in an email that the company cannot provide additional information because of the confidential nature of supervisory work. "It is important to note that due to their complex nature, regulatory exams, inquiries and investigations often take some time before they are resolved," the statement read. The CFPB has been scrutinizing banks’ sales practices in the wake of Wells Fargo’s fake-accounts scandal. In 2019 the agency opened a civil investigation into Bank of America to determine whether the Charlotte, North Carolina-based company violated federal law by opening credit card accounts without customers’ knowledge. Last year, the consumer bureau sued Cincinnati-based Fifth Third Bancorp for allegedly opening customer accounts without their authorization between 2010 through 2016. That case is expected to go to trial in 2022 or later, unless a settlement is reached. Since 2018, the CFPB has reached settlements with TCF Financial and TD Bank Group in connection with the marketing and sale of overdraft services. And in November, Regions Financial disclosed that it was responding to a civil investigative demand from the CFPB over certain overdraft policies and practices. After the Wells Fargo scandal broke in 2016, then-U.S. Bancorp CEO Richard Davis said that the company did not impose sales quotas on its bankers and had “never, ever” looked at cross-sell ratios. U.S. Bancorp currently has a conduct risk committee that oversees the risks associated with ethics complaints, internal fraud and sales practices conduct, according to regulatory filings by the company.
Confusion over CFPB underwriting rule persists - Confusion is building in the mortgage market about conflicting deadlines for loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to be in compliance with the Qualified Mortgage standard. Acting Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Dave Uejio last week announced a delay in mandatory compliance with a revised QM rule to October 2022, and that loans backed by the government-sponsored enterprises will remain exempt until then. But that is in direct conflict with a January agreement between the Federal Housing Finance Agency and Treasury Department governing Fannie and Freddie's conservatorships. The pact states that the exemption — known as the GSE "patch" — will end in July, requiring Fannie and Freddie to start purchasing only QM loans. "It’s a very messy and surprising situation,” said Stephen Ornstein, a partner at Alston & Bird. The QM underwriting rule created after the 2008 financial crisis set parameters that defined loans as safe. It was overhauled last year by the CFPB, which replaced a 43% debt-to-income limit with a price-based threshold as the key factor determining loans in compliance. Lenders using such criteria are protected from legal liability. But Uejio's decision has thrown the market into further turmoil. The GSE patch has allowed all mortgages backed by Fannie and Freddie to get QM status for the past seven years, even those with high DTIs. Many lenders, advocates and policymakers view the CFPB's decision as a precursor to the agency's yet again overhauling the QM framework finalized last year under former CFPB Director Kathy Kraninger, despite two years of rulemaking and public comment. "There it was, within our sights; we could finally taste it and then, this proposed reconsideration by the acting director called into question how to proceed," said Meg Burns, executive vice president of the Housing Policy Council. "What they’ve really done is to create uncertainty." Many lenders and advocates sided with Kraninger's QM rule that set the standard based on a loan's pricing, capped at 150 basis points above the prime rate, rather than the 43% DTI limit. A coalition of stakeholders had pushed for years for what they considered a more effective underwriting standard that would pry the market away from primarily originating loans that the GSEs would allow.
Fed Survey: Banks reported Eased Standards, Increased Demand for Residential Real Estate Loans - From the Federal Reserve: The April 2021 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices Regarding loans to businesses, respondents to the April survey indicated that, on balance, they eased their standards on commercial and industrial (C&I) loans to firms of all sizes over the first quarter. Banks reported weaker demand, on net, for C&I loans to large and middle-market firms, and demand for C&I loans from small firms remained basically unchanged. Standards on commercial real estate (CRE) loans secured by nonfarm nonresidential properties remained basically unchanged, while banks tightened standards on construction and land development loans and eased standards on multifamily loans. Banks reported stronger demand for construction and land development and multifamily loans and reported weaker demand for nonfarm nonresidential loans. For loans to households, banks eased standards across most categories of residential real estate (RRE) loans, on net, and reported stronger demand for most types of RRE loans over the first quarter. Banks also eased standards across all three consumer loan categories—credit card loans, auto loans, and other consumer loans. Meanwhile, demand for credit card and other consumer loans remained basically unchanged, and demand for auto loans moderately strengthened. This graph on Residnetial Real Estate lending is from the Senior Loan Officer Survey Charts. This shows that banks have eased standards (tightened for subprime), and that there is increased demand for RRE loans.
Banks See Rising Demand for Jumbo Mortgages as Broader Credit Market Stabilizes | ABA Banking Journal --Rising home prices in many U.S. markets appear to have pushed up demand for—and banks’ offering of—jumbo mortgage loans, according to the Federal Reserve’s senior loan officer surveyreleased today. Meanwhile, the market for commercial and industrial and commercial real estate loans continued to stabilize as the economic outlook improved—although banks’ standards were still tighter on net for both business and personal loans than they were compared to the end of 2019, even for investment-grade or prime borrowers.
- Mortgages. Almost all banks kept standards unchanged for conforming and government mortgage loans in the first quarter, with just 5% of banks reporting easing standards in these categories. However, with housing prices spiking across the country in the first quarter, 19% eased standards for Qualified Mortgage-designated jumbo loans, 18% eased standards on non-QM jumbos and 16% eased on non-jumbo, non-conforming QMs. After demand for mortgages cooled in Q4 on the heels of a Federal Housing Finance Agency refinance fee, double-digit shares of banks on net saw growing demand for jumbo loans. One in six banks eased standards on home equity lines of credit.
- C&I. A substantially larger share of banks reported easing standards for business loans, reversing the trend seen in the final quarter of 2020. On net, 15% of banks eased terms for large and midsize firms, while 13% eased standards for small businesses. More than three-quarters kept standards unchanged. Banks that eased standards cited more aggressive bank and nonbank competition and the improving economic outlook as the most important reasons. C&I loan demand was mixed, with four in 10 banks reporting unchanged demand and the remainder split between seeing more or less demand—but the share reporting weaker demand declined from the prior quarter. Banks seeing stronger C&I demand said the most important factors were growing client M&A and inventory financing needs.
- CRE. The CRE market continued to stabilize in Q1, with roughly three-quarters of banks keeping standards unchanged for construction and land development loans and multifamily CRE loans. On net, 9% of banks saw stronger demand for construction and land development loans and 17% saw stronger demand for multifamily loans, while a net 10% saw weaker demand for nonfarm CRE loans.
Personal loans. The late 2020 trend in easing standards for consumer credit accelerated, with 27% of banks on net easing standards on credit card loans, 18% on net easing standards on auto loans and 17% reporting eased standards on other consumer loan types. The Q3 pattern of eased standards for auto loans also continued. Demand was mixed for credit cards and was moderately stronger for car loans.
Fed’s Powell embraces idea of CRA for nonbanks— Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated his support on Monday for subjecting non-depository institutions to the Community Reinvestment Act, but said the final decision should be left to Congress. The Fed has been in talks with the other banking agencies for years to reform implementation of the anti-redlining law. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency issued its own CRA reform rule last year, and the Fed released a reform outline in December. While the banking regulators can’t expand the scope of CRA without authorization from lawmakers, Powell said Congress may want to consider an expansion of the law as lending continues to move outside of the regulated banking sector. “You do see this across payments and all sorts of financial services — you see activities that had once been principally the province of banks, moving into the nonbank sector,” he said, speaking at the National Community Reinvestment Coalition’s Just Economy Conference. “I would just say as a general matter, like activities should have like regulation,” he said. “In terms of … the specific question, that's really one for Congress to make a decision about, but I like to think, though, that consumers require protection and low- and moderate-income communities require credit support, regardless of the nature of the institution.” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., in pre-recorded remarks to conference participants, also expressed interest in expanding the scope of CRA. “For years, the CRA has been crucial in making sure banks invest in low-income neighborhoods, provide mortgages, loans for small businesses and so many other things,” he said. “As we work to reform, modernize and hopefully expand the CRA, it'll be my number one goal to refocus CRA's priorities to benefit those who truly need help.” The Fed’s CRA reform outline deviated somewhat from the OCC's rule, which was widely panned by banks and community groups that urged the regulators to come together on a harmonized CRA overhaul. Powell noted on Monday that the Fed is reopening discussions with the OCC and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. on what comprehensive CRA reform should look like at all three agencies. “We think that the CRA will be most effective if the three agencies get together with a consistent approach, and hopefully with identical or nearly identical rules, so we remain committed to doing that,” he said. He also said that he didn’t believe the Biden administration’s delay in naming a new comptroller of the currency was preventing the agencies from making progress on CRA reform. “I would say that I believe we can make good progress with the other agencies now and that's certainly going to be our intent,” he said. “We have discussions going on now and I feel that we will make progress.”
MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Slightly Decreases to 4.47%" -From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Slightly Decreases to 4.47%” The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 2 basis points from 4.49% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 4.47% as of April 25, 2021. According to MBA’s estimate, 2.23 million homeowners are in forbearance plans. The share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance decreased 2 points to 2.42%. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance decreased 7 basis points to 6.02%, while the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) increased by 13 basis points to 8.55%. The percentage of loans in forbearance for independent mortgage bank (IMB) servicers decreased 2 basis points to 4.70%, and the percentage of loans in forbearance for depository servicers also declined 2 basis points to 4.62%. "The share of loans in forbearance decreased for the ninth straight week, dropping by 2 basis points. The rate of exits has slowed the past two weeks, with this week’s exit rate reaching the lowest since February,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “The increase in the forbearance share for portfolio and PLS loans highlights both the ongoing buyouts of delinquent loans from Ginnie Mae pools as well as an increased forbearance share for other loans that are not federally backed.” Added Fratantoni, “Job market and housing market data remain strong. We expect that further gains in hiring will help to support many homeowners as they exit forbearance in the months ahead.” This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time. Most of the increase was in late March and early April, and has trended down since then. The MBA notes: "Total weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) decreased relative to the prior week: from 0.06% to 0.05%." This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time. Most of the increase was in late March and early April, and has trended down since then. The MBA notes: "Total weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) decreased relative to the prior week: from 0.06% to 0.05%."
Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Decreased --Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance. This data is as of May 4th. From Black Knight: Forbearance Volumes Fall by More Than 100K: May continued the strong trend of early forbearance improvements seen each month – the first week of the month saw volumes fall by 105,000 (-4.5%). Declines were seen across the board, with GSE forbearance volumes falling by 39,000 (-5.3%), FHA/VA plan volumes improving by 44,000 (-4.7%) and PLS/portfolio forbearances declining by 22,000 (-3.4%) on the week.As of May 4, just over 2.2 million (4.2% of) homeowners remain in COVID-19 related forbearance plans, including 2.5% of GSE, 7.4% of FHA/VA and 4.8% of portfolio/PLS loans. Some 73,000 plans are still listed with April 2021 expirations, suggesting opportunity may still remain in coming days for additional moderate improvements to be made. Another 350,000 plans are set to be reviewed for extension/removal in May. That number climbs to nearly 900,000 in June, the final quarterly review before early forbearance entrants begin to reach their 18-month plan expirations later this year.
Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for March -- Black Knight released their Mortgage Monitor report for March yesterday. According to Black Knight, 5.02% of mortgages were delinquent in March, down from 6.00% of mortgages in February, and up from 3.39% in March 2020. Black Knight also reported that 0.30% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 0.42% a year ago.This gives a total of 5.44% delinquent or in foreclosure. Press Release: Inflow of New Mortgage Delinquencies Drops to Record Low in March; April Payment Data Suggests Further Improvement Likely:In light of March’s 16.4% decline in delinquencies – as reported in Black Knight’s First Look at the month’s data – this month’s report drills deeper into what that may mean for the market. Not only did March see the largest single-month improvement in delinquencies in 11 years, but all indications suggest more is yet to come,” said Graboske. “Several factors contributed to particularly strong mortgage performance in March, including the distribution of 159 million stimulus payments totaling more than $376 billion, broader economic improvement leading to nearly a million new jobs and 1.2 million forbearance plans reviewed for extension or removal, resulting in an 11% decline in plan volumes in the last 30 days. As many early forbearance plan adopters shifted to post-forbearance waterfalls to get back to performing on their mortgage payments, inflow has continued to steadily improve as well. And, of the 7.1 million homeowners who have been in COVID-19 forbearance at one point or another, performance among those who have left plans has generally been strong.“Some other key metrics also point to a robust recovery under way. Despite mortgage delinquencies tending to trend seasonally upward starting in April, our McDash Flash daily performance dataset instead shows strong early payment activity for the month. Through April 23, 91.6% of mortgage holders had made their monthly payments, up from 91% in March and the largest share for any month since the onset of the pandemic. That said, while overall sentiment for an economic recovery in 2021 remains robust, mortgage performance is expected to run into seasonal headwinds for most of the remainder of the year, which could marginally dampen overall improvement rates. Black Knight will continue to monitor the situation as we move forward.”Here is a graph from the Mortgage Monitor that shows Credit Scores of rate locks. From Black Knight:Interesting trends are being seen among credit scores of both purchase and refinance rate locks in recent months
• After seeing credit scores among both purchases and refinances hit all-time highs in 2020,credits scores specifically among refinances have begun to wain early this year
• This type of behavior is typical in a rising rate environment as high credit score borrowers tend to be the first to jump in and refinance when rates fall and the first to exit the market as rates begin to rise
• The average credit score among rate/term refinances is down 13 points year to date, while the average among cash out refis is down a more modest 8 points
• At the same time, credit quality among purchase loans continues to remain strong with the average credit score of purchase locks up 3 points through March 2021 from 2020's already record highs
MBA: "Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease in the First Quarter of 2021" --From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease in the First Quarter of 2021 The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 6.38 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the first quarter of 2021, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) National Delinquency Survey. For the purposes of the survey, MBA asks servicers to report loans in forbearance as delinquent if the payment was not made based on the original terms of the mortgage. The delinquency rate was down 35 basis points from the fourth quarter of 2020, and up 202 basis points from one year ago. "Mortgage delinquency rates continued to decrease in the first quarter of 2021, as a rebounding job market and stimulus checks helped borrowers stay current on their mortgage payments," said Marina Walsh, MBA's Vice President of Industry Analysis. "Mortgage delinquencies track closely to the U.S. unemployment rate, and with unemployment dropping from last year's spike, many households appear to be doing better." Walsh noted that in the history of MBA's National Delinquency Survey, there has never been such a substantial decline in the delinquency rate over such a short period of time. The mortgage delinquency rate peaked at 8.22 percent in the second quarter of 2020 and within three quarters has dropped by 184 basis points to 6.38 percent. In addition, this quarter's earliest stage delinquencies - the 30-day and 60-day delinquencies combined - dropped to the lowest levels since the inception of the survey in 1979. This graph shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due. Overall delinquencies decreased in Q1. The decrease was in 30 and 60 day buckets, and in foreclosure. 90 delinquencies increased slightly (mostly loans in forbearance). From the MBA: Compared to last quarter, the seasonally adjusted mortgage delinquency rate decreased for all loans outstanding. By stage, the 30-day delinquency rate decreased 32 basis points to 1.46 percent, the lowest rate since the survey began in 1979. The 60-day delinquency rate decreased 10 basis points to 0.67 percent, the lowest rate since the second quarter of 2000. The 90-day delinquency bucket increased 7 basis points to 4.25 percent. The delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due but does not include loans in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started in the first quarter rose by 1 basis point to 0.04 percent. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the first quarter was 0.54 percent, down 2 basis points from the fourth quarter of 2020 and 19 basis points from one year ago. This is the lowest foreclosure inventory rate since the first quarter of 1982. This sharp increase last year in the 90-day bucket was due to loans in forbearance (included as delinquent, but not reported to the credit bureaus). The percent of loans in the foreclosure process declined further, and was at the lowest level since 1982.
12 arrested in alleged California mortgage fraud identity theft scam --After a multi-year investigation by the Los Angeles Police Department and Federal Housing Finance Agency’s Office of Inspector General, the California attorney general arrested a dozen individuals on 133 felony counts of alleged mortgage fraud this week. The indictment accuses the defendants of conspiring in grand theft, identity theft, forgery, filing false documents, money laundering and aggravated white-collar crime. The scams allegedly ran from 2014 to 2020 across Los Angeles, Riverside and Ventura counties and totaled a combined $15 million. “It's definitely a big indictment, there was an intense investigation. It’s basically a conspiracy ring they're alleging against all our clients,” defense attorney Diana Ivanova said in an interview. “It sounds horrible. It looks horrible. But it's a complex case with a lot of nuances and, obviously, we're going to fight aggressively against the charges.” Of the 12 defendants, 11 had their arraignments and each plead not guilty. The final arraignment is scheduled for May 18. For some of the defendants, this won’t be the first mortgage fraud scheme charges brought against them. The defendant bails range from $1.45 million to $4.75 million and total $40.3 million combined. “The allegations against these defendants charge a pattern of disregard for the law and willingness to go as far as stealing the identities of the deceased just to further their scheme,” California attorney general Rob Bonta said in a press release. “Our office will seek to hold these defendants accountable for their alleged actions.” The alleged operation stole the identities of deceased, incarcerated or developmentally disabled people and targeted the Ygrene Energy Fund and Renew Funding, as well as conventional banks and hard money lenders, according to a document from the LAPD. Ygrene and Renew provide “green lending" for licensed contractors making energy-efficient homes, a fast growing sector of the marketplace.
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey - From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey: Mortgage applications decreased 0.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 30, 2021.... The Refinance Index increased 0.1 percent from the previous week and was 17 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 24 percent higher than the same week one year ago.“There was a mixed bag of action in the mortgage market last week. Mortgage rates were slightly higher, refinance applications were essentially unchanged, and purchase applications fell for the second straight week,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Both conventional and government purchase applications declined, but average loan sizes increased for each loan type. This is a sign that the competitive purchase market, driven by low housing inventory and high demand, is pushing prices higher and weighing down on activity. The higher prices are also affecting the mix of activity, with stronger growth in purchase loans with larger-than-average balances.”Added Kan, “An increase in conventional refinances was offset by a decline in government refinances. The 30-year fixed rate was up slightly to 3.18 percent, which is still 22 basis points lower than a year ago, but higher than it was between mid-2020 and February 2021.”...The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($548,250 or less) increased to 3.18 percent from 3.17 percent, with points increasing to 0.34 from 0.30 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.With low rates, the index remains elevated, but below recent levels since mortgage rates have moved up from the record lows. The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index
CoreLogic: House Prices up 11.3% Year-over-year in March - Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). From CoreLogic: Millennials Propel Home Buying: Strong Demand and Short Supply Push US Home Prices Higher in March, CoreLogic Reports CoreLogic® ... today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for March 2021.As consumer confidence rebounds and the job market picks back up, the 2021 spring homebuying season is on track to outpace trends seen in 2019 and 2018. Millennials lead the homebuying charge with older millennials seeking move-up purchases and younger millennials entering peak homebuying years. As we look towards the second half of the year, further erosion of affordability may dampen purchase demand as prospective buyers continue to compete for the severely limited supply of for-sale homes. A pick-up in construction and an increase in for-sale listings as more people get vaccinated may help moderate surging home price growth.“Despite the severe slowdown last year, the 2021 spring homebuying season is trending strong — reflecting the many positive signs of economic recovery,” said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “With prospective buyers continuing to be motivated by historically low mortgage rates, we anticipate sustained demand in the summer and early fall."...Nationally, home prices increased 11.3% in March 2021, compared with March 2020. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 2% compared to February 2021.“Lower-priced homes are in big demand and short supply, driving up prices faster compared to their more expensive counterparts,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. “First-time buyers seeking a starter home priced 25% or more below the local-area median saw prices jump 15.1% during the past year, compared with the overall 11.3% gain in our national index."
Goldman on Housing: Double-digit price gains in 2021 and 2022 - A few brief excerpts from a Goldman Sachs research note on housing: Strong demand for housing looks sustainable. Even before the pandemic, demographic tailwinds and historically-low mortgage rates had pushed demand to high levels. ... consumer surveys indicate that household buying intentions are now the highest in 20 years. ... mortgage lending standards have remained fairly tight. With demographic trends still strong, mortgage rates very low, housing affordability still high, and household wealth as a share of income at the highest level in US history, demand should remain strong.The supply picture offers no quick fixes to the shortage of available homes ... The resulting picture is one of a persistent supply-demand imbalance in the years ahead. ... [Our] model suggests that rising prices will only gradually reduce affordability enough to dampen demand and mitigate the supply-demand imbalance. As a result, the model projects double-digit price gains both this year and next.
Is the US headed toward a new housing bubble? - The staggering rise of U.S. home prices is forcing thousands of aspiring buyers into grueling, often risky bidding wars, raising questions about whether the torrid housing market could be in a bubble. For nearly a year, the combination of low mortgage rates, a flood federal stimulus, lockdowns and teleworking — all sparked by the coronavirus pandemic — has fueled a rapid increase in demand for houses. At the same time, COVID-19 exacerbated an already severe housing shortfall by causing major delays in new home construction and kept some potential sellers on the sidelines because they were afraid to let strangers tour their homes during a pandemic. The median home price in April rose 20 percent — to $347,500 — compared with a year ago, and the average home spent just 20 days on the market before selling, according to data released Friday to real estate listing website Redfin. And last month was not a pandemic anomaly. Home prices rose 12 percent year over year in February, the fastest rate since 1996, according to the most recent reading from the closely watched S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index. “We really sort of exacerbated this imbalance where demand was really strong but supply was unbelievably constrained,” said Mike Fratantoni, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association. “You get into this year of record low levels of inventory, and that really is what’s spurring the very rapid home price growth,” he added. Buyers with savings or equity in their current homes have helped keep up the pressure. Offers well above asking price are commonplace, and those unable to outbid competitors have upped the ante by waiving inspection requirements and restructuring offers with better immediate incentives for sellers. Experts say there’s no clear end in sight to the homebuying frenzy, but they don’t see the same red flags that preceded the collapse of the mid-2000s housing bubble. Though mortgage rates are low, lending standards have tightened considerably since the 2007-09 recession. The 2010 Dodd-Frank Wall Street reform law imposed much stricter home loan requirements to avoid another foreclosure crisis, and banks have also been wary of lending to all but the safest buyers because of pandemic-related uncertainty. “A lot of the people who are buying today ... are among the most creditworthy in the history of mortgage lending,” said Reggie Edwards, an economist at Redfin. “They have the highest levels of savings, and they're taking out loans that have the most equity off the bat because they're putting so much cash upfront. I don't think we have any concerns about if people can afford the homes that they're buying right now, especially compared to 2006, 2007.
Soaring Lumber Prices Add Nearly $36,000 To The Price Of A New Home: NAHB - Skyrocketing lumber prices that have tripled over the past 12 months have driven the price of an average new single-family home to rise by $35,872, according to new analysis by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), with the price spike threatening to hobble the momentum of the U.S. housing market, one of the bright stars of the recovery from the pandemic recession. While homebuilder sentiment remains optimistic, as indicated by the NAHB Housing Market index, headwinds due to rising building costs have pulled the index down from recent highs. “The supply chain for residential construction is tight, particularly regarding the cost and availability of lumber, appliances, and other building materials,” said NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke in a statement. At the onset of the health crisis, “the mills stopped producing,” said Dustin Jalbert, senior economist and lumber industry specialist at Fastmarkets in Burlington, Massachusetts. “As soon as they saw 20 million unemployed, they shut down production,” Jalbert added. But the pandemic drove demand for housing in low population density areas and for home office space, while the Fed dropped interest rates, driving mortgage rates down to historic lows. This confluence of factors turned out to be a boon for housing, with surging demand pushing housing inventories to record lows. Lumber producers have struggled to catch up with the bustling homebuilding activity, with lumber prices jumping more than 300 percent year-on-year to record highs. This lumber price hike has also added nearly $13,000 to the market value of an average new multifamily home, NAHB said in a post. This translates into households paying $119 a month more to rent a new apartment, the association said, adding that its representatives on April 29 held a “productive” virtual meeting with White House staff from the Domestic Policy Council, National Economic Council, and the Office of the Vice President. “The discussion covered mill capacity issues, mill worker shortages, and how soaring lumber prices are exacerbating the housing affordability crisis and putting the American dream of homeownership out of reach of millions of households,” NAHB said in a statement. The association called on the White House to hold a summit on lumber and building material supply chain issues and to temporarily remove the 9 percent tariffs on Canadian lumber to help reduce price volatility. “The administration was noncommittal on both requests but the door remains open for future talks,” NAHB said.
Q1 2021 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate -The BEA released the underlying details for the Q1 advance GDP report on Friday. The BEA reported that investment in non-residential structures decreased at a 4.8% annual pace in Q1. This was the sixth consecutive quarterly decline (weakness in non-residential structures started before the pandemic). Investment in petroleum and natural gas structures increased sharply in Q1 compared to Q4, but was still down 40% year-over-year. The first graph shows investment in offices, malls and lodging as a percent of GDP. Investment in offices (blue) decreased in Q1, and was down 4.5% year-over-year. Investment in multimerchandise shopping structures (malls) peaked in 2007 and was down about 28% year-over-year in Q1 - and at a record low as a percent of GDP. The vacancy rate for malls is still very high, so investment will probably stay low for some time. Lodging investment decreased in Q1, and lodging investment was down 22% year-over-year. All three sectors - offices, malls, and hotels - are being hurt significantly by the pandemic. The second graph is for Residential investment components as a percent of GDP. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, RI includes new single family structures, multifamily structures, home improvement, Brokers’ commissions and other ownership transfer costs, and a few minor categories (dormitories, manufactured homes).Even though investment in single family structures has increased from the bottom, single family investment is still low, and still barely above the bottom for previous recessions as a percent of GDP. Investment in single family structures was $375 billion (SAAR) (about 1.7% of GDP), and up 22% year-over-year. Investment in multi-family structures increased slightly in Q1. Investment in home improvement was at a $325 billion Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in Q3 (about 1.5% of GDP). Home improvement spending has been strong during the pandemic.Note that Brokers' commissions (black) increased sharply as existing home sales increased in the second half of 2020, and was up 26% year-over-year in Q1.
Construction Spending increased 0.2% in March --From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased: Construction spending during March 2021 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,513.1 billion, 0.2 percent above the revised February estimate of $1,509.9 billion. The March figure is 5.3 percent above the March 2020 estimate of $1,436.7 billion. Private spending increased and public spending decreased:Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,169.2 billion, 0.7 percent above the revised February estimate of $1,160.9 billion. ... In March, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $343.9 billion, 1.5 percent below the revised February estimate of $349.0 billion. This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted. Residential spending is 7% above the bubble peak (in nominal terms - not adjusted for inflation). Non-residential spending is 7% above the previous peak in January 2008 (nominal dollars), but has been weak recently. Public construction spending is 6% above the previous peak in March 2009, and 31% above the austerity low in February 2014. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending. On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is up 23.3%. Non-residential spending is down 9.1% year-over-year. Public spending is down 4.6% year-over-year. Construction was considered an essential service in most areas and did not decline sharply like many other sectors, but it seems likely that non-residential will be under pressure. For example, lodging is down 24% YoY, multi-retail down 31.5% YoY, and office down 4.2% YoY. This was well below consensus expectations of a 2.0% increase in spending, and construction spending for the previous two months was revised down.
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 17% Compared to Same Week in 2019 ---Note: The year-over-year occupancy comparisons are easy, since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic. However, occupancy is still down significantly from normal levels. The occupancy rate is down 17% compared to the same week in 2019.From CoStar: STR: US Hotels End April With Positive Weekend Occupancy Streak: U.S. hotel occupancy remained relatively flat compared with the previous week, according to STR‘s latest data through May 1.April 25 through May 1, 2021:
• Occupancy: 57.1%
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$108.80
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$62.13
While the overall weekly data was stagnant, weekend occupancy rose modestly and came in above 70% for the fourth straight week. However, the Top 25 Markets showed a lower occupancy level in aggregate with more properties reopening on top of lower demand. The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year on record for hotels prior to 2020). Occupancy is now slightly above the horrible 2009 levels. Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change
Personal bankruptcies are down, money woes have eased — for now - The degree to which U.S. consumers’ financial health got a boost from the pandemic relief efforts is coming into focus. The looming question is what will happen next. The average consumer’s financial well-being improved between June 2019 and June 2020, as fewer people reported difficulty paying their bills, and subjective levels of financial well-being rose, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau said Friday. Meanwhile, bankruptcy filings tumbled 38% to 473,349 for the 12-month period ended on March 31, the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts said Monday. The two reports highlighted the positive impact from government payments, forbearance programs and decreased consumer spending over the past 14 months. But the CFPB noted that much of the decline in spending meant that people had cut way back on things like visiting family and vacations. “An overall improvement in financial status does not imply more general improvement in consumers’ lives, especially against the tragedy of so much illness and death,” the bureau wrote. The findings jibe with other recent data, including quarterly earnings reports from banks that have shown robust consumer credit quality. Some 96.8% of U.S. consumer debt was current in the fourth quarter of last year, its highest level in more than 17 years, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. But it’s not clear how long the positive trends will sustain themselves as government relief efforts wind down and moratoriums on evictions and foreclosures end. Bankers have offered differing views on when charge-offs are likely to peak, and at what level. The CFPB reached its conclusions by examining credit bureau data and surveying approximately 1,700 consumers. It calculated consumers’ Financial Well-Being Score, a metric the agency developed in 2015 that asks respondents a range of subjective questions about their financial lives and then generates a score between 0 and 100. While that score had generally remained steady over time, the CFPB said it ticked up by 1 point to 52.1 in June 2020. A 1-point increase is associated with an age increase of five years, a credit score increase of 20 points or a household income increase of about $15,000, according to the bureau. Those respondents who said they had money left over at the end of the month rose by 3.9 percentage points to 46.6%, while people who contended that finances were controlling their lives fell by 8 percentage points to 32.7%. The bureau also found that consumers under the age of 40 reported a substantially greater increase in their financial well-being than those over 62, though older consumers still had much higher financial well-being scores.
Credit Card Deleveraging during the COVID-19 Pandemic -- St. Louis Fed --In the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, total credit card debt1 in the United States dropped 13%, reaching a low of $807 billion by the end of third quarter of 2020. Prior to this decline, total credit card debt had reached a record high of nearly $930 billion. Using aggregate credit card debt data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the figure below shows the deleveraging pattern of the last two recessions, the Great Recession and the COVID-19 downturn. This blog post uses individual level data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel to show that although the evolution of credit card debt looks similar at the aggregate level during these two episodes, the underlying individual changes in credit card debt during these two events are quite different.
Trade Deficit Increased to $74.4 Billion in March -- From the Department of Commerce reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $74.4 billion in March, up $3.9 billion from $70.5 billion in February, revised.March exports were $200.0 billion, $12.4 billion more than February exports. March imports were $274.5 billion, $16.4 billion more than February imports.Both exports and imports increased in March.Exports are up 8.1% compared to March 2020; imports are up 18.1% compared to March 2020. Both imports and exports decreased sharply due to COVID-19, and have now bounced back (imports much more than exports), The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.Note that net, imports and exports of petroleum products are close to zero.The trade deficit with China increased to $27.7 billion in March, from $11.8 billion in March 2020.
US Trade Deficit Hits Record High In March - After the 2018-2019 rebound in the US Trade Balance to a three year low (as Trump 'adjusted' US-China's relationship), the trade deficit has surged from the start of the pandemic to the latest data in March, at $74.4 billion - the largest trade deficit in US history (from $71.1 billion a month earlier), in line with expectations. The March goods deficit ($90.6 billion) was the highest on record, and the March non-petroleum deficit ($88.8 billion) was the highest on record.Overall, imports rose 6.3% to a record $274.5 billion, while exports climbed 6.6% to $200 billion. Exports and Imports::
- March exports of goods ($142.4 billion) were the highest since May 2018 ($142.7 billion).
- March exports of industrial supplies and materials ($51.5 billion) were the highest on record.
- March non-petroleum exports ($128.9 billion) were the highest on record.
- March imports of goods ($233.0 billion) were the highest on record.
- March imports of consumer goods ($65.1 billion) were the highest on record.
- March imports of foods, feeds, and beverages ($14.0 billion) were the highest on record.
- March imports of capital goods ($63.0 billion) were the highest on record.
- March non-petroleum imports ($217.7 billion) were the highest on record.
The deficit with China increased $6.7 billion to $36.9 billion in March. Exports increased $0.9 billion to $11.3 billion and imports increased $7.6 billion to $48.2 billion.
U.S. trade deficit surges to new record; shortfall with China rises -- The U.S. trade deficit hit a fresh record high in March as consumers flush with government cash spurred a continuing demand for foreign-made goods. With a new round of $1,400 stimulus checks pouring in and the domestic economy continuing to show substantial improvement, the imbalance in goods and services with the rest of the world swelled to $74.4 billion, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. That's the highest level ever in a data series that goes back to January 1992, and represents a 57.6% increase from the same period a year ago and higher than the $70.5 billion in February. The trade imbalance with China increased more than 22% to $36.9 billion. The deficit with Mexico rose 23.5% to $8.4 billion. "Stimulus has kept American consumers spending through the pandemic, but restrictions on high-contact industries have diverted consumer spending from domestically produced services to goods, much of which are imported," Bill Adams, senior economist at PNC, wrote. Exports actually increased for the month, rising $200 billion or 6.6%. But that was offset by a continued demand for imported goods, which increased 6.3% or $274.5 billion. The deficit has risen nearly 10% in 2021 alone and has exploded from the $47.2 billion level in March 2020, just as the U.S. was entering the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic. Imports in 2021 have increased by 8.5% while exports have fallen 3.5%. Adams said the shortfall is likely to decline in coming months as the recovery progresses. "As the pandemic comes under control in the United States, American consumers will spend less on imported goods, shrinking imports; and foreigners will buy more U.S. exports as their economies recover further," he said. For March, imports rose the most in consumer goods, which increased $4.5 billion, including a $1.2 billion rise in textile apparel and household goods. Industrial supplies and materials imports rose $3.7 billion and capital goods were up $3.3 billion. Industrial supplies and materials led exports with a $5.2 billion increase, while capital goods were up $2.9 billion and consumer goods rose $2 billion.
Consumer Demand Drove U.S. Imports to Record High in March – WSJ —Consumers and a fresh round of stimulus money pushed demand for U.S. imported goods to a record high in March, further expanding the trade deficit. The foreign-trade gap in goods and services expanded 5.6% from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted $74.4 billion in March, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. Imports rose 6.3% to $274.5 billion for the month, fueled by higher shipments of items including toys, furniture, cellphones, automobiles and semiconductors. The previous record for imports, on a seasonally but not inflation adjusted basis, was recorded in October 2018 when the U.S. purchased foreign goods and services worth $266.72 billion. Exports rose 6.6% to $200 billion in March, following a one-month decline in February, as supply-chain disruptions caused by winter weather eased. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had predicted a trade deficit of $74.8 billion in March. President Biden signed dozens of executive orders in his first few weeks in office, but his administration has moved slowly on trade. WSJ’s Gerald F. Seib explains why. Photo illustration: Laura Kammermann The increase in March imports and the trade deficit came as the economic recovery in the U.S gathered steam, thanks to government-stimulus spending, Covid-19 vaccination efforts and a fuller reopening of the economy from pandemic-related restrictions. U.S. household income rose by 21.1% in March, the Commerce Department reported last week, the largest monthly increase for government records tracing back to 1959. Consumer spending also was up sharply, increasing 4.2%. The federal government in March distributed $1,400 stimulus checks to individuals as part of a $1.9 trillion stimulus package signed into law in March. U.S. household income rose by 21.1% in March, the Commerce Department reported last week, the largest monthly increase for government records tracing back to 1959. Consumer spending also was up sharply, increasing 4.2%. The federal government in March distributed $1,400 stimulus checks to individuals as part of a $1.9 trillion stimulus package signed into law in March.Exports remained well below pre-pandemic levels in March but are on a recovery path as the global economy continues to emerge from the pandemic’s impact. March exports of goods were the highest since May 2018, with the shipments of industrial supplies and materials at the highest level on record.Economists expect the trade deficit to remain high in the coming months as the U.S. economy recovers more robustly than most other parts of the world. That should keep imports growing vigorously, outpacing recoveries in U.S. exports, economists say.
AAR: April Rail Carloads down 10.1%, Intermodal Up 10.4% Compared to 2019 --From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Numerous U.S. rail traffic categories have completely recovered the ground lost during the pandemic or are very close to doing so.For example, April saw a new all-time record for U.S. intermodal shipments, driven by surging international trade and strong consumer spending. The weekly average for intermodal for April was 293,488 containers and trailers, breaking the record of 293,305 set in January 2021. ...Meanwhile, U.S. carloads of grain, food, lumber, paper, scrap metal, and several other categories were higher in April 2021 than they were in both April 2020 and in April 2019. Carloads of chemicals and steel in April 2021 were much higher than April 2020 levels and just shy of April 2019 levels. In April 2021, 17 of the 20 carload categories the AAR tracks were higher than in April 2020; nine carload categories were higher than in April 2019. This graph from the Rail Time Indicators report shows the six week average of U.S. Carloads in 2019, 2020 and 2021:U.S. railroads originated 951,840 total carloads in April 2021, up 23.7%, or 182,060 carloads, over April 2020 and down 10.1% from April 2019. Total carloads averaged 237,960 per week in April 2021, the most since November 2019. For the first four months of 2021, total carloads were up 2.8% over last year. The second graph shows the six week average of U.S. intermodal in 2019, 2020 and 2021: (using intermodal or shipping containers):U.S. railroads originated 1.17 million intermodal containers and trailers in April 2021, an average of 293.488 units per week. That’s up 33.8% over April 2020, up 10.4% over April 2019, and the biggest weekly average for intermodal for any month in history (breaking the record of 293,305 set in January 2021).
April Vehicles Sales increased to 18.51 Million SAAR; Highest Since 2005 --The BEA released their estimate of light vehicle sales for April this morning. The BEA estimates sales of 18.51 million SAAR in April 2021 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), up 3.1% from the March sales rate, and up more than double from April 2020. This was the highest sales rate since 2005.This was above the consensus estimate. This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and the BEA's estimate for April (red). The impact of COVID-19 was significant, and April 2020 was the worst month.Since April 2020, sales have increased are now up compared to 2019. Sales-to-date are up 1.9% compared to the same period in 2019.The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.Note: dashed line is current estimated sales rate of 18.51 million SAAR.Sales in April were positively impacted by the American Rescue Plan Act.
U.S. Heavy Truck Sales up Sharply Year-over-year in April -- The following graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the April 2021 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR).Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Then heavy truck sales increased to a new all time high of 575 thousand SAAR in September 2019.However heavy truck sales started declining in late 2019 due to lower oil prices.Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight."Heavy truck sales really declined towards the end of March 2020 due to COVID-19 and the collapse in oil prices, falling to a low of 299 thousand SAAR in May 2020, but have since rebounded.Heavy truck sales were at 499 thousand SAAR in April, down from 517 thousand SAAR in March, but up 46% from 390 thousand SAAR in March 2020. The year-over-year comparison are easy for the next few months because of the collapse in sales in the early months of the pandemic.
U.S. factory orders rebound in March; business spending on equipment strong (Reuters) - New orders for U.S.-made goods rebounded in March and business spending on equipment was stronger than initially estimated, boosted by robust domestic demand, though momentum could slow because of bottlenecks in the supply chain.The Commerce Department said on Tuesday that factory orders increased 1.1% in March after falling 0.5% in February.Economists polled by Reuters had forecast factory orders rebounding 1.3%. Orders rose 6.6% on a year-on-year basis.The White House's $1.9 trillion pandemic relief package and the expansion of the COVID-19 vaccination program to all adult Americans have led to a boom in demand, which is pushing against supply constraints.The Institute for Supply Management reported on Monday that manufacturing activity grew at a slower pace in April, restrained by shortages of inputs. Robust consumer spending helped to lift gross domestic product growth at a 6.4% annualized rate in the first quarter, which followed a 4.3% growth pace in the final three months of 2020.Most economists expect double-digit GDP growth this quarter, which would position the economy to achieve growth of at least 7%, which would be the fastest since 1984. The economy contracted 3.5% in 2020, its worst performance in 74 years.Factory goods orders in March were boosted by strong demand for machinery, motor vehicles, fabricated and primary metal products. But orders for electrical equipment, appliances and components decreased. Unfilled orders at factories rose 0.4% after surging 0.9% in February.The Commerce Department also reported that orders for non-defense capital goods, excluding aircraft, which are seen as a measure of business spending plans on equipment, jumped 1.2% in March instead of increasing 0.9% as reported last month.Shipments of core capital goods, which are used to calculate business equipment spending in the GDP report, rose 1.6%. They were previously reported to have rebounded 1.3% in March. Business spending on equipment recorded a third straight quarter of double-digit growth in the first quarter.
ISM® Manufacturing index Decreased to 60.7% in April --The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in March. The PMI® was at 60.7% in April, down from 64.7% in March. The employment index was at 55.1%, down from 59.6% last month, and the new orders index was at 64.3%, down from 68.0%. From ISM: April 2021 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®: Economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in April, with the overall economy notching an 11th consecutive month of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. “The April Manufacturing PMI® registered 60.7 percent, a decrease of 4 percentage points from the March reading of 64.7 percent. This figure indicates expansion in the overall economy for the 11th month in a row after contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index registered 64.3 percent, declining 3.7 percentage points from the March reading of 68 percent. The Production Index registered 62.5 percent, a decrease of 5.6 percentage points compared to the March reading of 68.1 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 68.2 percent, 0.7 percentage point higher compared to the March reading of 67.5 percent. The Employment Index registered 55.1 percent, 4.5 percentage points lower than the March reading of 59.6 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 75 percent, down 1.6 percentage points from the March figure of 76.6 percent. The Inventories Index registered 46.5 percent, 4.3 percentage points lower than the March reading of 50.8 percent. The Prices Index registered 89.6 percent, up 4 percentage points compared to the March reading of 85.6 percent. The New Export Orders Index registered 54.9 percent, an increase of 0.4 percentage point compared to the March reading of 54.5 percent. The Imports Index registered 52.2 percent, a 4.5-percentage point decrease from the March reading of 56.7 percent.” This was well below expectations. This suggests manufacturing expanded at a slower pace in March than in February.
April Markit Manufacturing: "Strongest improvement in operating conditions on record amid marked uptick in client demand" -- The April US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 60.5, up 1.4 from the 59.1 final March figure. Here is an excerpt from Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit in their latest press release:“US manufacturers reported the biggest boom in at least 14 years during April. Demand surged at a pace not seen for 11 years amid growing recovery hopes and fresh stimulus measures.“Supply chain delays worsened, however, running at the highest yet recorded by the survey, choking production at many companies. Worst affected were consumer-facing firms, where a lack of inputs has caused production to fall below order book growth to a record extent in over the past two months as household spending leapt higher.“Suppliers have been able to command higher prices due to the strength of demand for inputs, pushing material costs higher at a rate not seen since 2008.“Attempts to expand capacity via hiring extra staff gained further momentum, though in some cases staff shortages were an additional constraint on production. However, with confidence in the outlook continuing to run at one of the highest levels seen over the past seven years, buoyed by vaccine roll-outs and stimulus, further investment in production capacity should be seen in coming months, helping alleviate some of the price pressures.” [Press Release] Here is a snapshot of the series since mid-2012.
US Steel ends plans for $1.5B Pennsylvania plant upgrades . (AP) — Pittsburgh-based United States Steel Corp. said Friday that it is canceling a $1.5 billion project to bring a state-of-the-art improvement to its Mon Valley Works operations in western Pennsylvania, saying the world has changed in the two years since it announced its intentions. Project permits initially stalled by the pandemic never came through, U.S. Steel has added capacity elsewhere, and now it must shift its focus to its goal of eliminating greenhouse gas emissions from its facilities by 2050, it said. The loss of what would have been one of the largest industrial investments in Pennsylvania quickly led to recriminations by Pittsburgh-area politicians, labor unions and business organizations over why the project could never secure permits. Some worried it will diminish the future of steelmaking there. “We had a window of opportunity and it’s absurd that we as a region have allowed that window to be slammed shut,” said Jeff Nobers, executive director of Pittsburgh Works, a coalition of labor unions, corporations and local business chambers. U.S. Steel revealed the news in an earnings call Friday morning and in an “open letter” on social media. It also said it will shut down batteries 1, 2 and 3 at its Clairton Plant by early 2023 — representing approximately 17% of coke production at the plant — to help reduce polluting emissions from equipment long-criticized as among the area’s worst polluters. “The world is changing rapidly and we’re on the ten-yard line with 90 yards ahead of us,” David Burritt, the company’s president and CEO, said in the letter. U.S. Steel said it does not anticipate laying off any of the 130 full-time workers at the three batteries, and that job reductions will come from retirements and reassignments.
ISM® Services Index decreased to 62.7% in April --The March ISM® Services index was at 62.7%, down from 63.7% last month. The employment index increased to 58.8%, from 57.7%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: April 2021 Services ISM® Report On Business® “The Services PMI® registered 62.7 percent, which is 1 percentage point lower than last month’s all-time high of 63.7 percent. The April reading indicates the 11th straight month of growth for the services sector, which has expanded for all but two of the last 135 months. “The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 66.1 percent, up 5.1 percentage points from March’s reading of 61 percent. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® Report On Business® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.) The Prices Index figure of 76.8 percent is 2.8 percentage points higher than the March reading of 74 percent, indicating that prices increased in April, and at a faster rate. This is the index’s highest reading since it reached 77.4 percent in July 2008. “According to the Services PMI®, 17 services industries reported growth. The composite index indicated growth for the 11th consecutive month after a two-month contraction in April and May 2020. There was slowing growth in the services sector in April; however, the rate of expansion is still strong. Respondents’ comments indicate that pent-up demand is continuing. Production-capacity constraints, material shortages, weather and challenges in logistics and human resources continue to affect deliveries, which has resulted in a reduction of inventories,” says Nieves. The employment index increased to 58.8% from 57.2% in March.
March Markit Services PMI: "Business activity expands at fastest pace on record amid marked uptick in client demand" --The April US Services Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 64.7 percent, up 5.0 from the final March estimate of 59.7.Here is the opening from the latest press release:Commenting on the latest survey results, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said:“Thanks to the cocktail of a successful vaccine roll-out, the reopening of the economy, ultra-accommodative monetary policy and injection of fresh fiscal stimulus, businesses are reporting the strongest surge in demand seen for at least a decade.“The upswing in demand has led to one of the strongest months of job creation yet recorded by the survey as business prepares for better times ahead."The biggest threat to the outlook remains new virus variants, which will inevitably mean international travel and associated business activity will stay under pressure for some time to come, but in the meantime the domestic economy is faring very well, especially consumer facing industries.“Another concern is prices, with a record increase in service sector charges highlighting how inflationary pressures are by no means confined to the manufacturing sector. Indicators of price pressures and capacity constraints will need to be monitored closely to assess whether such price rises are transitory.” [Press Release] Here is a snapshot of the series since mid-2012.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 498,000 --The DOL reported:: In the week ending May 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 498,000, a decrease of 92,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020 when it was 256,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 37,000 from 553,000 to 590,000. The 4-week moving average was 560,000, a decrease of 61,000 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020 when it was 225,500. The previous week's average was revised up by 9,250 from 611,750 to 621,000. This does not include the 101,214 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was down from 121,414 the previous week.The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 560,000.The previous week was revised up. Regular state continued claims increased to 3,690,000 (SA) from 3,653,000 (SA) the previous week.Note: There are an additional 6,862,705 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that decreased from 6,974,909 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance. And an additional 4,972,507 receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) down from 5,194,099.Weekly claims were lower than the consensus forecast.
ADP: Private Employment increased 742,000 in April --From ADP: Private sector employment increased by 742,000 jobs from March to April according to the April ADP® National Employment ReportTM. Broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, the ADP National Employment Report is produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis “The labor market continues an upward trend of acceleration and growth, posting the strongest reading since September 2020,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Service providers have the most to gain as the economy reopens, recovers and resumes normal actvities and are leading job growth in April. While payrolls are still more than 8 million jobs short of pre-COVID-19 levels, job gains have totaled 1.3 million in the last two months after adding only about 1 million jobs over the course of the previous five months. This was below the consensus forecast of 830,000 for this report. The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 978 thousand non-farm payroll jobs added in April. The ADP report has not been very useful in predicting the BLS report.
April Employment Report: 266 Thousand Jobs, 6.1% Unemployment Rate -- From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 266,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 6.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains in leisure and hospitality, other services, and local government education were partially offset by employment declines in temporary help services and in couriers and messengers....The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for February was revised up by 68,000, from +468,000 to +536,000, and the change for March was revised down by 146,000, from +916,000 to +770,000. With these revisions, employment in February and March combined is 78,000 lower than previously reported.The first graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.In March, the year-over-year change was 14.147 million jobs. This was up significantly - since employment collapsed in April 2020.Total payrolls increased by 266 thousand in March. Private payrolls increased by 218 thousand.Payrolls for February and March were revised down 78 thousand, combined.The second graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, but currently is not as severe as the worst of the "Great Recession".The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.The Labor Force Participation Rate increased to 61.7% in April, from 61.7% in March. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.The Employment-Population ratio increased to 57.9% from 57.8% (black line).I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.The unemployment rate increased in April to6.1% from 6.0% in March.This was well below consensus expectations, and February and March were revised down by 78,000 combined.
April jobs report: well, that was a big miss .... but look at the composition --HEADLINES:
- +266,000 million jobs added: 218,000 private sector plus 48,000 government. The alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report indicated a gain of 328,000 jobs, which factors into the unemployment and underemployment rates below.
- U3 unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 6.1%, compared with the January 2020 low of 3.5%.
- U6 underemployment rate declined 0.3% to 10.4%, compared with the January 2020 low of 6.9%.
- Those on temporary layoff increased 88,000 to 2,114,000.
- Permanent job losers increased 97,000 to 3,529,000.
- February was revised upward by 68,000, while March was revised downward by 146,000, for a net loss of 78,000 jobs compared with previous reports.
- the average manufacturing workweek was unchanged at 41.6 hours. This is one of the 10 components of the LEI.
- Manufacturing jobs declined 18,000. Since the beginning of the pandemic, manufacturing has still lost -515,000, or 4.0% of the total.
- Construction jobs were unchanged. Since the beginning of the pandemic, -14,000 construction jobs have been lost, or 0.2% of the total.
- Residential construction jobs, which are even more leading, declined by 1,300. Since the beginning of the pandemic, there have still been almost 30,000 in gains in this sector.
- temporary jobs decreased by 111,400. Since the beginning of the pandemic, there have still been 184,800 jobs lost, or 6.3% of all temporary jobs.
- the number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or less rose fell by 79,000 to 2.414 million, 332,000 more than just before the pandemic hit.
- Professional and business employment declined by 79,000, which is still 685,000, or about 3.2%, below its pre-pandemic peak.
- Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel: rose $0.20 to $25.45, which is a 1.2% YoY gain***WHICH IS THE LOWEST YOY GAIN IN THE ENTIRE NEARLY 60 YEAR HISTORY OF THIS SERIES.*** This is a huge reversal of the 5%+ YoY gains recently seen, and reflects the rehiring of low-wage workers in sectors like food and beverage serving.
- the index of aggregate hours worked for non-managerial workers was unchanged, which is a loss of -3.6% since just before the pandemic.
- the index of aggregate payrolls for non-managerial workers rose by 0.7%, which is a gain of 1.4% since just before the pandemic.
- Full time jobs gained 935,000 in the household report.
- Part time jobs declined 54,000 in the household report.
- The number of job holders who were part time for economic reasons decreased by 583,000 to 5.243 million, which is an increase of 845,000 since before the pandemic began.
SUMMARY: Needless to say, this was a very disappointing report compared with all of the employment-related indicators we have seen in the past few weeks. My main thoughts are that (1) this was compositional; and (2) there is likely to be a substantial revision. Usually when there is one report that sticks out like a sore thumb compared with other related data, it gets revised significantly. This is particularly so when one looks at the composition of the gains and losses in this report. Consider the following two points: - there were job gains in food and drinking establishments of 187,000, over 2/3’s of the entire month’s improvements. - the entire goods-producing sector of the US economy - which has been at very least red hot in the past few months - *lost* 16,000 jobs! This includes job losses in residential construction (housing), which has been going through the roof in recent months. Another anomaly is that those unemployed less than 5 weeks, which usually correlates fairly closely with initial jobless claims, *increased* by 237,000; plus, both permanent and temporary layoffs *increased* - a direct contradiction to the big decline in new jobless claims in the past 6 weeks. Another big compositional change was the big decline in temporary jobs, paired with a huge increase in full time employment. This suggests that previous temps were converted to permanent hires. Finally, note that the YoY% increase in average wages completely reversed, and made an all-time series low (although still positive). So, basically, either (1) bottlenecks in supplies caused a complete halt in the goods producing sector including both manufacturing and construction; plus there was an anomalous contraction in professional and business services; or (2) there will be substantial upward revisions to those aspects of the report. I am more inclined to believe that #2 is the primary driver of this relatively poor report than #1.
Comments on April Employment Report – McBride - The headline jobs number in the April employment report was well below expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised down. Leisure and hospitality gained 331 thousand jobs. In March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 2.85 million jobs since February 2020. So leisure and hospitality has now added back about 65% of the jobs lost in March and April 2020.Construction employment was unchanged in April, and State and Local education added 37 thousand jobs. Manufacturing lost 18 thousand jobs. Earlier: April Employment Report: 266 Thousand Jobs, 6.1% Unemployment Rate. In April, the year-over-year employment change was 14.147 million jobs. This turned positive in April due to the sharp jobs losses in April 2020. This graph shows permanent job losers as a percent of the pre-recession peak in employment through the April report. . These jobs will likely be the hardest to recover. This data is only available back to 1994, so there is only data for three recessions. In April, the number of permanent job losers increased slightly to 3.529 million from 3.432 million in March. Since the overall participation rate has declined due to cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old. The prime working age will be key in the eventual recovery. The 25 to 54 participation rate was unchanged in April at 81.3% from 81.3% in March, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 76.9% from 76.8% in March. The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in April to 5.243 million from 5.826 million in March. These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 10.4% from 10.7% in March. This is down from the record high in April 22.9% for this measure since 1994. This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. According to the BLS, there are 4.183 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, down from 4.218 million in March. This does not include all the people that left the labor force. This will be a key measure to follow during the recovery. Summary: The headline monthly jobs number was well below expectations, and the previous two months were revised down by 78,000 combined. The headline unemployment rate increased to 6.1%. This was a disappointing report , and there are still 8.2 million fewer jobs than in February 2020, and 3.5 million people have lost jobs permanently.
Five takeaways on a surprisingly poor jobs report --Volume 90% Economists and politicians alike were shocked by the unexpectedly tepid April jobs report released Friday, which showed that the economy only added about a quarter the number of jobs most were expecting. The report found U.S. businesses added just 266,000 new jobs in April instead of the roughly 1 million that economists had projected. The figure would be solid in the midst of a strong economy, but was tremendously disappointing for a nation emerging from a pandemic in which 9.8 million people remain unemployed. Here are five takeaways to make some sense of the report. Any recovery from the depths of the coronavirus recessions is unlikely to be a straight ride. “I think this signals that we’re in for a rockier road that we thought,” said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. Frick predicted there will be a recovery and better reports in the future, but said the expectations of a booming report were too optimistic. But he acknowledged the bad report in April was still a surprise. “Nobody expected it would be this early,” he said. The jobs report shed light on some of the current trouble spots, though economists say more data is needed to know exactly what’s going on. For example, even as overall employment rose, female employment dropped by 8,000, while female labor force participation dropped by 64,000. An obvious explanation, says Frick, is child care, which disproportionately falls on the shoulders of women. Republicans and conservative groups have zeroed in on generous unemployment benefits as the culprit behind the slowdown. “Government paying people more to stay home than to work has crushed the ability of businesses to get workers back, and this jobs report is evidence of that," said Adam Brandon, president of the conservative FreedomWorks advocacy group. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce called for repealing the additional $300 weekly unemployment benefit that is in place until September.While the April jobs report was universally seen as a disappointment, economists by and large agree that one month does not a trend make. “It may be bumpy from month to month for a variety of factors,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Friday. “One should never take one month’s data as an underlying trend.” As more data becomes available, analysts will be able to sharpen their views as to what is causing the labor market to hold back.
Millions Are Unemployed. Why Can’t Companies Find Workers? – WSJ - In a red-hot economy coming out of a pandemic and lockdowns, with unemployment still far higher than it was pre-Covid, the country is in a striking predicament. Businesses can’t find enough people to hire.Rising vaccination rates, easing lockdowns and enormous amounts of federal stimulus aid are boosting consumer spending on goods and services. Yet employers in sectors like manufacturing, restaurants and construction are struggling to find workers. There are more job openings in the U.S. this spring than before the pandemic hit in March 2020, and fewer people in the labor force, according to the Labor Department and private recruiting sites.Surveys suggest why some can’t or won’t go back to work. Millions of adults say they aren’t working for fear of getting or spreading Covid-19. Businesses are reopening ahead of schools, leaving some parents without child care. Many people are receiving more in unemployment benefits than they would earn in the available jobs. Some who are out of work don’t have the skills needed for jobs that are available or are unwilling to switch to a new career.Hiring has been robust recently, despite the labor shortfall. U.S. employers added 916,000 jobs in March, according to the Labor Department, and economists project that the April jobs report, due out Friday, will show employers added 1 million more. Weekly unemployment claims fell to 498,000 last week, a new low since the pandemic began. Still, the shortage threatens to restrain what is otherwise shaping up to be a robust post-pandemic economic recovery. Some businesses are forgoing work, such as not bidding on a project, delivering parts more slowly or keeping a section of the restaurant closed. That reduces the pace of the economy’s expansion. Other companies are raising wages to attract employees, which could inflate prices for customers or reduce profit margins for owners. Workers could stand to benefit from a temporary reduced supply of labor. They could command promotions and better wages, which they then could spend in their communities, boosting economic output. They might also be able to negotiate more flexible schedules or other perks. Analysts say the labor shortages should ease over time as more potential workers are vaccinated, schools fully reopen and federal benefits expire, though the process could take months and the impacts are already being felt. March job openings rose 34% compared with January 2020, before the pandemic took hold in the U.S., iCIMS said. Meanwhile, the number of job applications was down 13% in March from the pre-pandemic level. A Federal Reserve report in April described shortages across numerous occupations, including drivers and housekeepers. An April survey by job search site ZipRecruiter found fewer job seekers felt financial pressure to take the first job offer they received—35% compared with 51% when the same question was asked in 2018. More than half the people surveyed said they preferred a job where they can work from home, and 45% said they would want that option after the pandemic abates. “The pandemic has changed people’s motivations,” said ZipRecruiter economist Julia Pollak. “Employers may need to be patient, as vaccines are still being rolled out, and may have to become more flexible in order to find workers.”
1 in 6 US workers say they keep unwanted jobs for health insurance --One out of every 6 adult workers said they remained in their unwanted jobs out of fear of losing their health benefits, according to a new survey released Thursday. The survey, conducted by West Health and Gallup, found that 16 percent of adult workers in the U.S. have stayed in jobs that they might have otherwise left because they do not want to lose their employer-sponsored health insurance. Black workers were 50 percent more likely to find themselves in this situation. According to the survey, 21 percent of Black adults are currently in a job they want to leave but won’t out of fear of losing health insurance benefits, compared to 14 percent of white adults. Sixteen percent of Hispanic workers said the same. Annual household income was another factor that influenced whether adults are remaining in jobs for health benefits. According to the survey, adults making less than $48,000 a year were among the most likely to stay in an unwanted job, at 28 percent. That rate dropped to 10 percent for adults with an annual household income of more than $180,000. Last May, the Kaiser Family Foundation released a study that estimated about 27 million people could lose their employer-sponsored health insurance during the pandemic because of job losses.
Virginia governor planning to lift COVID-19 occupancy restrictions on June 15 -Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam (D) is planning to lift COVID-19 occupancy restrictions on June 15. Northam said during a press conference on Thursday that he will likely lift the remaining restrictions as long as vaccination numbers trend upward and cases continue to decline. “If our COVID numbers keep trending down, and our vaccination numbers keep going up, we plan to lift our mitigation measures, capacity restrictions and social distancing requirements on June 15,” Northam said. Northam said that the state would follow the mask guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Last Thursday, the state updated its mask guidance to allow fully vaccinated individuals to not wear masks outdoors when alone or in small gatherings. The announcement follows several moves Northam has taken to reopen the state. Late last month, Northam announced that expanded capacity limits and limits on social gatherings would begin on May 15. Officials said that Northam’s state of emergency declaration expires June 30, but it would likely be revisited to address how to go about mandating masks indoors. Northam said Thursday that the state is seeing less than 1,000 new cases of the coronavirus per day for the past two weeks, with a 4.4 percent positivity rate. The seven-day average is lower than it has been since early October. Just under 46 percent of the state’s population has received at least one dose of a vaccine, while 33 percent have been fully inoculated.
Cuomo Unveils Vaccine-Segregated Access To Yankees/Mets Games -- New York and its neighbors New Jersey and Connecticut announced Monday that they would lift most of their pandemic restrictions, allowing some sort of normalcy to return after more than a year of restrictions that limited capacity at restaurants and bars, sports and entertainment venues, and cultural and religious gatherings. Now in a bid to get everyone vaccinated, New York State Governor Andrew Cuomo is offering free vaccines at baseball games. Cuomo, who announced Wednesday at a press conference that his administration is teaming up with two Major League Baseball teams, including New York Yankees and New York Mets, to vaccinate fans at games. In return, the fans will receive a "free ticket." The @Mets, the @Yankees & @HealthNYGov are teaming up so that when you go to a game you can can get a vaccine right at the stadium. When you do, you'll get a free ticket.So if you love baseball (& protecting your community) — go to a game, get vaccinated & get a free ticket!— Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo) May 5, 2021Then the governor also noted a new segregation policy: Starting May 19, full capacity seating at Yankee Stadium & Citi Field will be available for fully vaccinated people.For unvaccinated, the capacity will be 33% to comply with CDC social distancing rules. Masks will be required for all fans.
NYC Pitches Free Vaccines for Tourists in Bid to Expedite Post-Pandemic Recovery New York City wants to roll out mobile vaccination sites for visiting tourists as the five boroughs look to revive their vibrancy post-pandemic, Mayor Bill de Blasio says. De Blasio described the program, which would target tourists with free Johnson & Johnson doses at popular attractions, leaving them fully vaccinated (though not yet immune) to enjoy their stay in the city and reap the benefit of convenience. The mayor says the state needs to modify the rules around vaccination a bit to approve the administering of shots to non-New Yorkers who don't work here, but he said his team was working with Gov. Andrew Cuomo's administration to get it done. De Blasio says the mobile vans are ready to roll out as early as this weekend at spots ranging from the Empire State Building and Times Square to Brooklyn Bridge Park, the High Line and Central Park, among others, pending the state's green light. "This is a positive message to tourists. Come here, it's safe, it's a great safe to be and we're gonna take care of you," de Blasio said. "We're going to make sure you get vaccinated while you're here with us."
Covid and Travel: Why an Estimated 100,000 Americans Abroad Face Passport Problems - Consular appointments for U.S. citizens overseas are nearly impossible to come by as many embassies, plagued by Covid restrictions and staff reductions, remain all but closed. About 9 million U.S. citizens currently live abroad, and as the light at the end of the pandemic tunnel finally appears, immigration lawyers estimate more than 100,000 can’t get travel documents to return to the United States.Despite the State Department making headway on a massive backlog of passport applications in the early months of the pandemic, many consulates and embassies abroad, plagued by Covid-19 restrictions and staffing reductions, remain closed for all but emergency services. Travel is restarting, but for American expats who had a baby abroad in the past year or saw their passport expire during the pandemic, elusive appointments for documents are keeping them grounded.“It’s a real mess,” . “It’s a giant, multilayered onion of a problem and the reduction of staff as a result of Covid at the consular posts has really thrown the State Department for a loop.”Michael Wildes estimates that the number of stranded Americans abroad is in the hundreds of thousands.“Our offices have been inundated,” he said. “We’ve been getting at least 1,200 calls a week on this, which is about 50 percent more than last year. The problem is more robust than people realize, and this isn’t how a 21st-century society should work.”In Israel alone, the U.S. Embassy has a passport backlog of 15,000 applications, according to The Jerusalem Post. American Citizens Abroad, an advocacy organization for U.S. expats, sent an official request to the State Department in October 2020 to prioritize Americans’ access to consular services abroad, “but people are still experiencing delays,” said the organization’s executive director, Marylouise Serrato.In Mexico, which is believed to have more American expats than any other country, a recent search on the appointment database for the U.S. Embassy in Mexico City showed zero available appointments for passport services, even with emergency circumstances (appointments from July onward have not yet been released).At the U.S. Embassy in London, the availability of appointments for both in-person passport renewals and obtaining an official record of a child’s claim to U.S. citizenship, known as a Consular Report of Birth Abroad, plummeted when Britain went back into lockdown last fall. Amanda Brill, a London-based U.S. immigration attorney, said that since November, appointments have been nonexistent for both. “You can imagine that if you’re a U.S. citizen and you’ve had a baby in the past six months, it is frustrating at best and incredibly stressful for citizens returning to America,” she said.
Asian woman bashed with hammer after stranger demands she remove mask -- The New York Police Department’s (NYPD) Hate Crimes Task Force is investigating after two Asian women were attacked in Manhattan on Sunday, with one being hit in the head with a hammer. The Asian women, ages 31 and 29, were seen walking on a sidewalk when an individual approached them and demanded they remove their face masks. The individual, who was seen wearing all black, then attacked the women and "struck the 31-year-old in the head with a hammer causing a laceration,” according to a statement from the task force on Twitter. The task force also shared video of the violent incident on Twitter, during which several bystanders can be seen nearby. The woman who was hit with the hammer, identified only by her first name, Theresa, told ABC7 in New York that she is in shock over the incident. "She was talking to herself, like talking to a wall, I thought maybe she was drunk or something, so we just wanted to pass through her quickly and when I passed through her, she saw us and said 'Take off your f---ing mask,' which is shocking," Theresa told the outlet. "Suddenly I felt my head get hit by something." The Hate Crimes Task Force urged people with potential information to contact the NYPD. Authorities are investigating the attack as a possible bias crime, according to multiple reports. Medics took the 31-year-old victim to a nearby hospital in stable condition with cuts on her head.New hate crime data from the Center for the Study of Hate & Extremism at California State University-San Bernardino found that hate crimes against Asian Americans rose by 169 percent when comparing the first quarter of 2020 to the first quarter of 2021 in 15 major U.S. cities. The highest increase was documented in New York, where hate crimes jumped 223 percent.
DNA evidence exonerates Ledell Lee, four years after his execution by lethal injection in Arkansas - New forensic testing has revealed that an unknown person was responsible for the murder of Debra Reese, for which Ledell Lee was executed by the State of Arkansas four years ago.The new evidence was found on objects at the murder scene—including a bloody shirt and a club used to bludgeon 26-year-old Reese to death in 1993—after testing was demanded by the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) and the Innocence Project. Lee was executed on April 20, 2017, the first of four inmates put to death by the Arkansas government as it rushed to carry them out before one of the drugs used in the state’s lethal injection protocol was about to expire. He maintained his innocence from the time of his arrest, throughout his trial and conviction, and after he was placed on death row in 1995.At the time of Lee’s execution, Amnesty International noted, “Today is a shameful day for Arkansas, which is callously rushing the judicial process by treating human beings as though they have a sell-by date.”Reese was found dead on February 9, 1993 in her home in Jacksonville, Arkansas after she was sexually assaulted, strangled and beaten 36 times with a small wooden club. Lee was convicted for the murder of Reese after two trials—the first ended in a hung jury—in which no physical evidence directly connected him to the crime and no alibi witnesses were called to testify by the defense.Other failures of the justice system that have also been pointed out by the Innocence Project in their campaign to exonerate Lee include the facts that, “Fingerprints from key areas of the crime scene were determined not to be Ledell Lee’s and to this day have never been identified. None of Lee’s lawyers ever had the crime scene fingerprints independently examined before his execution. It turns out that there are at least five fingerprints eligible to be searched in the national Automated Fingerprint Identification System database—which could identify the source in a matter of hours.”
As We Hold Them Accountable, Police Across the U.S. Are Quitting in Record Numbers — New reports from across the country show that police departments are unable to keep their numbers up as fewer people are applying to be cops and record numbers of cops are seeking early retirement or simply quitting. There is a police recruitment crisis in America but this should not surprise anyone and can serve as a major opportunity, if we seize it.Though calls for police accountability have been becoming louder over the last few years, the movement sparked by the murder of George Floyd set off a powder keg which has led to historical reform from coast to coast. As a result of the push to be held accountable for their actions, cops are upset and are leaving the force in record numbers.According to a report out of New York, more than 5,300 NYPD uniformed officers retired or put in their papers to leave in 2020 — a 75 percent spike from the year before.A whopping 2,600 cops quit the job while another 2,746 officers filed for an early retirement. These number make up approximately 15% of the entire NYPD. The trend is continuing into 2021 as well. As FOX reports, through April 21 of this year, 831 cops have retired or filed to leave — and many more are expected to follow suit in the current anti-cop climate, according to Joseph Giacalone, a retired NYPD sergeant and adjunct professor at John Jay College of Criminal Justice.“Cops are forming a conga line down at the pension section and I don’t blame them,” Giacalone said, according to FOX. “NYPD cops are looking for better jobs with other departments or even embarking on new careers.”Naturally, police are playing the victim here and claiming the calls to hold them accountable amount to a war on cops and this is driving them out. Police Benevolent Association President Pat Lynch told The Post, “The Mayor and City Council are absolutely trying to abolish the police. They’ve kept our pay absurdly low. They’ve ratcheted up our exposure to lawsuits. They’ve demonized us at every opportunity. And they’ve taken away the tools we need to do the job we all signed up for, which is to keep our communities safe.
Education secretary expects all schools to fully reopen in-person in fall -- Education Secretary Miguel Cardona said Thursday that he expects "all schools" to fully reopen in the fall, setting the tone for the Biden administration’s push for a return to normal for the upcoming school year. “With regard to ... September, yes, I expect all schools to be open full-time in person for all students,” Cardona said on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.” “We really need to make sure students have the opportunity to learn in the classroom, and quite frankly, I’d rather have it this spring.” “Students don’t learn as well remotely,” he added. “There is no substitute for in-person learning.” The Education secretary’s comments came as the administration celebrated reaching its coronavirus pandemic goal of reopening a majority of K-8 schools to in-person instruction five days a week by Biden’s 100th day in office last week. A survey released by the Education Department on Thursday determined that 54 percent of public schools below high school were providing full-time in-person learning, according to The Associated Press. The percentage has risen from 46 percent in January. “Until we’re at 100 percent we must keep our foot on the gas pedal,” Cardona said. Nearly 40 percent of schools are still fully teaching remotely, and about 20 percent are conducting hybrid programs, with time split between in-person and online learning. “We’re really reaching out to make sure that in places where they’re not offering in-person learning or full-time in-person learning — we want to make sure we’re supporting those states, those districts to find out why they’re not,” said Cardona. Biden had announced his reopening goal amid disapproval from Republicans, who have called for a quicker return to in-person learning since the pandemic disrupted education early last year.
Tennessee GOP advance bill opposed to teaching of critical race theory - Republican state representatives in Tennessee advanced legislation this week that seeks to bar teachings about critical race theory in schools. The Tennessee's state House Education Committee approved legislation along party lines to add an amendment to a larger bill that reportedly dealt with multiple rules for the state's education department and had previously passed the state Senate, according to the Nashville Tennessean. The new amendment being backed by Tennessee Republicans, however, seeks to lay out restrictions on how subjects like race are taught in classrooms. Among the concepts the legislation seeks to bar schools from teaching includes the notion that a person can be inherently privileged, racist, sexist or oppressive due their race, as well as the idea that the country is fundamentally racist or sexist, according to the newspaper. It would also, if passed by the state Legislature, impact how states that teach such concepts receive funding. The legislation passed the education panel with 12 "yes" votes from Republican legislators and 3 "no" votes from Democratic legislators, all three of whom are Black. State Rep. John Ragan (R), who brought forth the measure, used choice words when explaining the rationale behind the bill to his fellow legislators on Monday, describing the effort as a part of “a stand against hucksters, charlatans and useful idiots peddling identity politics.” “These additional sections may well be more important than all of the others. Today subversive factions are seeking to undermine our unique form of government of the people, by the people and for the people,” he said. “These seditious charlatans would if they could destroy our heritage of ordered, individual liberty under the rule of law, before our very eyes,” he stated. “Disingenuously, these conniving hucksters masquerade as noble champions of the oppressed, regrettably, they have successfully hoodwinked a number of our fellow citizens into becoming what Lenin called useful idiots.” The language is similar to other pieces of legislation that Republican lawmakers in other states have filed or advanced in recent months aiming to block the teaching of critical race theory, which maintains that racism is inherently imbued within the country’s institutions.
Arkansas Boots Critical Race Theory From State Agency Educational Materials -As Isabel van Brugen of the Epoch Times recently described it, "CRT has gradually proliferated in recent decades through academia, government structures, school systems, and the corporate world. It redefines human history as a struggle between the “oppressors” (white people) and the “oppressed” (everybody else), similarly to Marxism’s reduction of history to a struggle between the “bourgeois” and the “proletariat.” It labels institutions that emerged in majority-white societies as racist and “white supremacist.”On Monday, Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R) allowed legislation (SB 627) to become law - without endorsing or vetoing it -which effectively ends Critical Race Theory education within state agencies. The bill is described as "an act to prohibit the propagation of divisive concepts" and "to review state entity training materials."The law, which takes effect in 2022, does not apply to local governments, law enforcement training, or public education according to the Associated Press. Arkansas joins Oaklahoma, Idaho, Florida and Texas in various forms of pushback against CRT - with Oklahoma's House voting last Thursday to ban public schools and universities from teaching the concept, and Texas GOP legislators, who introduced a bill do the same. -
Oklahoma governor signs bill that prevents schools from teaching critical race theory --Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) on Friday signed a bill into law that bans the teaching of critical race theory in schools. In video statement he shared to Twitter, Stitt explained why he signed HB 1775, which prevents the teaching of the academic theory that holds that racism is ingrained in the history of the United States and still impacts laws in place today. "Now more than ever we need policies that bring us together, not rip us apart," he began his message. "I firmly believe that not one cent of taxpayer money should be used to define and divide young Oklahomans about their race or sex." Stitt said it's necessary to keep teaching about the country's past and "encourage honest and tough conversations." "Nothing in this bill prevents or discourages those conversations," he added. "We can and should teach this history without labeling a young child as an oppressor, or requiring he or she feel guilt or shame based on their race or sex." Stitt concluded his message by quoting Martin Luther King Jr., saying people should be judged by the content of their character instead of the color of their skin. Oklahoma City Public Schools Board head Paula Lewis, one of the critics of the bill, tweeted her dismay about it being advanced earlier this week, slamming it as an "outright racist and oppressive piece of legislation." Stitt joins Republican-controlled legislatures in half a dozen states that are working to prevent the theory's teaching in schools. Amna Akbar, an associate professor of law at the Moritz College of Law at Ohio State University, slammed the efforts as catch-all attempts to suppress conversations around racism. "The term critical race theory is being used by Republicans in a loose way to capture all sorts of critical thought about the histories and legacies of racism in this country,” said Akbar. "It’s a bogeyman that they’re constructing around critical attention to the history of the country."
Kansas GOP fails to override governor veto of transgender sports ban -Republican lawmakers in Kansas on Monday failed to override Gov. Laura Kelly's (D) veto of a proposed transgender sports ban, according to The Associated Press. Kelly vetoed the bill that passed both state houses in April. The proposal would ban transgender people from competing in women's and girls' sports in the state. The state Senate's vote to override the veto came up one vote short of the 27 needed. In a press release, Kelly called the bill a “devastating message that Kansas is not welcoming to all children and their families, including those who are transgender — who are already at a higher risk of bullying, discrimination, and suicide.” Supporters of the proposal argued that they were trying to protect fair competition in women's and girls' sports and preserve opportunities for female athletes, such as college scholarships, according to the AP. The veto comes as a number of other GOP-led states have passed or are considering legislation to ban transgender people from competing in women's and girls' sports. Idaho, Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee and West Virginia have all enacted laws, according to the AP, and Florida has passed a bill that could soon go to Gov. Ron DeSantis's (R) desk. In South Dakota, Gov. Kristi Noem (R) issued an executive order banning transgender athletes. Kansas state Sen. David Haley (D) was the last to cast a "no" vote on overriding the veto, meaning the law would not be enacted.
To Promote Equality, California Proposes A Ban On Advanced Math Classes – Mish - In the name of equality, the California Department of Education seeks to dumb down the brightest kids. Please consider the Reason article In the Name of Equity, California Will Discourage Students Who Are Gifted at Math.I like to verify things myself and you can do so as well by reading the California Department of Education Mathematics Framework. In its framework, the Department of Education seeks "Culturally responsive mathematics education."
- Active efforts in mathematics teaching are required in order to counter the cultural forces that have led to and continue to perpetuate current inequities. Mathematics pathways must open mathematics to all students, eliminating option-limiting tracking. [i.e. no advance classes].
- implementation of this framework and the standards, teachers must be mindful of other considerations that are a high priority for California’s education system including the Environmental Principles and Concepts (EP&Cs) which allow students to examine issues of environmental and social justice.
- The evolution of mathematics in educational settings has resulted in dramatic inequities for students of color, girls, and students from low income homes.
- Teachers are encouraged to align instruction with the outcomes of the California ELD Standards, which state that linguistically and culturally diverse English learners receive instruction that values their home cultures.
Cheerleader Free Speech Case Puts Liberals in a Bind - “Cheerleader” and “Supreme Court” are not concepts you often see juxtaposed. But they are now, as Supreme Court considers the case of Brandi Levy, who was punished by her school for a profane Snapchat post. The facts of Levy’s case, Mahanoy School District v. B.L., are simple. In the spring of 2017, Levy, then 14, tried out for the varsity cheer squad at Mahanoy Area High School, but only managed to make the JV team. She expressed her reaction on Snapchat in a post that read “F--- school f--- softball f--- cheer f--- everything.” (Our version is expurgated; hers was not.) The post went up on a Saturday, reached some 250 of her friends and, like all other posts to the social media platform, disappeared after 24 hours. Nevertheless, a classmate showed a screenshot to her mother, who happened to be one of the cheer coaches. The coaches disciplined Levy by suspending her from the team for a year. She had broken two team rules, they said. One prohibited “foul language” — although only at “games, fundraisers, and other events.” The other said that “there will be no toleration of any negative information regarding cheerleading, cheerleaders, or coaches placed on the internet.” For good measure, the school district said she’d also violated school rules stating that members of teams must “conduct themselves in such a way that the image of the Mahanoy School District would not be tarnished in any manner.” What is most significant legally about Levy’s case is that she was punished for conduct that took place outside of school. In the landmark 1969 caseTinker v. Des Moines Independent School District, the Supreme Court held that kids have First Amendment rights in public schools, provided their speech doesn’t disrupt classwork or invade the rights of others. But the Supreme Court has never said whether speech outside of school can be regulated by administrators. Obviously, the stakes are huge — especially in the era of social media, when conversations in school are inextricably intertwined with what happens online outside of school hours. If kids can’t be disciplined for what they say outside of the school, administrators may feel that they have no meaningful control over students and can’t stop bullying or harassment. Yet if schools can discipline students for what they say online, then the public schools, which are arms of the state, could easily become the speech police for everyone who attends U.S. publics, which is the overwhelming majority of kids and teens. The ACLU, which represents Levy, is arguing for near-absolute protection for off-campus speech, because it deeply distrusts the government as the regulator of our communications. Lots of conservative organizations find themselves aligned with the ACLU on this one. In contrast, the Biden administration’s Department of Justice, which filed a friend of the court brief, emphasizes that schools have legal duty to protect students against harassment based on race, sex, sexual orientation and disability. It’s clearly worried that if off-campus speech is out of bounds to school administrators, forbidding illegal discrimination will be a hopeless task. Anti-bullying organizations are taking the side of the school district and the Biden administration.
Howard University students and educators protest elimination of classical studies department - Howard University in Washington D.C. has declared its intention to liquidate the university’s Department of Classics—the program dealing with the study of ancient Greco-Roman history, literature and philosophy—by the fall. Students, alumni and educators at the college have denounced the move, drawing widespread support from around the world. The classics department at Howard University, established at the college’s founding in 1867, is the only classical studies program at a historically black college in the US. The department currently includes courses in Mythology, Latin, Love in Antiquity, and Ideas in Antiquity among others. Last fall, the university board of trustees made the decision to dissolve the department. A few of the courses that are taught in the program are to be dispersed throughout other departments. University officials rationalize slashing the classics by citing low enrollment numbers, an alleged lack of student interest, and claims of financial scarcity, voiced in the lingo peculiar to the philistine college administrator. Provost Anthony K. Wutoh told the Washington Post, “We obviously believe that the content that we offer in classics is important, but we also must contemporize that teaching with practical application.” University spokeswoman Alonda Thomas told the Post that the move would “allow the university to function more effectively and efficiently.” The announcement has provoked an outpouring of support for saving the Department of Classics from students and educators from all over the country and internationally. An online petition entitled Save HU Classics has garnered more than 5,000 signatures. The petition reads, in part: “Words in English, Latin, nor Ancient Greek cannot adequately express the impact the Classics Department and its professors have had on so many of our careers and lives, but we make this final plea in a hope of conveying just how passionately we disagree with the plans Howard University has set forth to dissolve the Classics Department.”
Biden taps ex-consumer bureau chief to oversee student loans | TheHill -- Former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) Director Richard Cordray will serve as head of the Education Department’s student loan office, Secretary Miguel Cardona announced Monday. Cordray was appointed Monday as chief operating officer of Federal Student Aid, giving a fierce critic of the student loan industry oversight of the Education Department's $1.6 trillion loan portfolio. “Education has made all the difference in life for my family and me, and it has been the foundation of progress in this country for generations. But too many students find that access to affordable, good-quality higher education remains far out of reach,” Cordray said in a statement, vowing to help “create more pathways for students to graduate and get ahead, not be burdened by insurmountable debt." Cordray, a Democrat, served as the first full-time director of the CFPB, the consumer watchdog agency created through the 2010 Dodd-Frank Wall Street reform law. He led the bureau from 2012 to 2017, elating progressives and enraging the financial industry with strict new regulations and aggressive penalties for misconduct. In 2017, the CFPB under Cordray sued Navient, one the biggest U.S. student loan servicers, alleging that it “created obstacles to repayment by providing bad information, processing payments incorrectly, and failing to act when borrowers complained.” Navient has denied the allegations from both the CFPB and similar cases filed by state attorneys general. “Cordray has a strong track record as a dedicated public servant who can tackle big challenges and get results. I am confident that under his leadership, Federal Student Aid will provide the kind of service that our students, families, and schools deserve,” Cardona said in a Monday statement. Cordray, who will take his new post Tuesday, joins the Education Department as the Biden administration faces immense pressure to reduce the federal student loan burden and clean up years of servicing errors and program failures. Democratic lawmakers and progressive activists are boosting pressure on Biden to forgive up to $50,000 in federal student debt per borrower through executive action. Supporters for unilateral forgiveness say doing so will help the hardest hit Americans rebound from the pandemic and reduce longstanding racial wealth disparities. The White House said in February that Biden would review his legal authority to forgive student loans through executive action after the president previously expressed resistance to acting unilaterally. While Biden has opened the door to a debt relief executive order, he has explicitly ruled out going as high as $50,000 for every borrower. Cordray has not taken a public stance on student loan forgiveness, but has expressed concerns about the financial toll student loans can take on borrowers, particularly those who attended defunct or fraudulent for-profit colleges. Even so, Cordray may still be able to chisel down the federal student loan balance sheet through revamping the department’s failed student loan forgiveness programs.
Drug overdose deaths hit record high in West Virginia in 2020 -- West Virginia, the national epicenter of the opioid crisis for the past decade, saw its fatal overdose rate spike by at least 45 percent in 2020 according to data from the state Office of the Chief Medical Officer. The increase is a reversal of two years of declining drug deaths and marks a new record as drug companies responsible for dumping millions of opioids into the state fight lawsuits in West Virginia. Preliminary figures show at least 1,275 residents died of overdoses last year, up from 878 in 2019. The new numbers could rise as more autopsies are completed. Statewide, the Charleston Gazette-Mail reported April 26, “15 counties at least doubled their number of fatal overdoses between 2019 and 2020. Only eight saw drops. Of those eight, none saw decreases of more than five cases.” Of the 1,275 fatal overdoses, 955 involved fentanyl. Southern and coalfield counties in the state fared the worst, with McDowell County—home to the once-mighty mining center of Welch—tripling its fatal overdose rate. Logan County, another former mining stronghold, had the highest drug death rate per capita, at 159 per 100,000. The urban center of Huntington and its surrounding Cabell County registered 158 deaths per 100,000. This rate is nearly eight times the national average, which has also tripled in the past five years. Nationwide last year, preliminary federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data analyzed by the health policy foundation the Commonwealth Fund found overdose deaths may have surpassed 90,000, up from 70,630 in 2019. That jump is the largest in more than 20 years. The Gazette-Mail reports that in addition to heroin and opioid painkiller overdoses, deaths from methamphetamines have seen “a more than 1,000 percent increase over 2015” across the state, with meth use spiraling in coalfield counties.
U.S. Births decreased in 2020, "Lowest number of births since 1979" - From the National Center for Health Statistics: Births: Provisional Data for 2020. The NCHS reports: The provisional number of births for the United States in 2020 was 3,605,201, down 4% from the number in 2019 (3,747,540). This is the sixth consecutive year that the number of births has declined after an increase in 2014, down an average of 2% per year, and the lowest number of births since 1979.The provisional general fertility rate (GFR) for the United States in 2020 was 55.8 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44, down 4% from the rate in 2019 (58.3), another record low for the nation. From 2014 to 2020, the GFR declined by an average of 2% per year… The provisional birth rate for teenagers in 2020 was 15.3 births per 1,000 females aged 15–19, down 8% from 2019 (16.7), reaching another record low for this age group. The rate has declined by 63% since 2007 (41.5), the most recent period of continued decline, and 75% since 1991, the most recent peak.Here is a long term graph of annual U.S. births through 2020. Births have declined for six consecutive years following increases in 2013 and 2014. Note the amazing decline in teenage births. With fewer births, and less net migration, demographics are not be as favorable as once expected. There is much more in the report.
US birth rate declines to lowest point in more than a century -The birth rate in the United States continued its long-term decline in 2020, according to figures released Wednesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), which showed a 4 percent drop. Even more alarmingly, the decline doubled to 8 percent in the month of December, the first month that births were affected by the coronavirus pandemic, which came to widespread public attention in the US during the month of March 2020. A separate Associated Press report found that the plunge in December continued in January 2021 and February 2021, with births down 9.3 percent and 10 percent respectively, compared to the same month in 2020. The CDC gave a provisional figure of 3.6 million for the total number of US births in 2020, just slightly ahead of the 3.4 million estimated deaths. It was the lowest total number of births for the United States since 1979. In 2019, by contrast, 3.747 million people were born and 2.854 million died in the US, for a net gain, not counting immigration, of 907,000 people. The net gain in 2020 was barely 200,000. At the birth rates shown in December 2020 and the first two months of 2021, the US population will actually be declining, not counting immigration. The Associated Press report found that 25 American states had more deaths than births last year, compared to only five states in 2019. The birth rate has been declining steadily in the United States since the Wall Street crash of 2008 and the subsequent deep recession. Whereas in previous crises, such as the Great Depression of the 1930s, the birth rate fell sharply for several years and then rose again, there has been no such rebound from 2008. This decline has been particularly sharp among younger women, those aged 20-24, where the birth rate has declined by an astonishing 40 percent since 2007. Over the same period, the birth rate for all women has dropped by 19 percent. The result is that the average age of women at their first time giving birth has risen from 23 in 2010 to 27 in 2020, a substantial increase in only a decade. The birth rate declined across every race and ethnicity, demonstrating that it is a response to broader economic and societal pressures, particularly the impact of the 2008 crash and the subsequent protracted economic crisis on the working class as a whole. There are complex social interconnections and processes underlying this decline in childbearing, related to advances in contraception which make having a child much more of a conscious decision on the part of women and their partners. Women have been able to attend college in much greater numbers and enter into careers in the workplace, and thus have delayed childbearing, or opted out altogether. But the more recent drop is clearly the consequence of overriding economic factors. For a protracted period, from the 1980s on, the lifetime reproductive rate for American women oscillated around the figure of 2.1 children, roughly corresponding to the number required to keep the existing population stable, known as “replacement-level fertility.” This has dropped since 2008 to only 1.6 children per woman in a lifetime, well below the level of replacement.
Condom sales skyrocket as vaccinated singles get ready for a summer of sex, experts say -- Condom sales have skyrocketed as hot vax summer approaches andmore people sign up to get their COVID-19 vaccine. US condom sales increased by 23.4% within four weeks in late March and early April, according to research firm IRI, CNN reports. CVS and Walgreens representatives also told the site they've seen a spike in condom sales in the last month — a CVS spokesperson called the increase "substantial." Condom company executives say young people — who've been forced to social-distance for more than a year — are anxious to date and have casual sex again."18-to 24-year-olds can't wait to get their social lives back," Britta Bomhard, chief marketing officer at the producer of Trojan condoms Church & Dwight, told CNN. Condom companies are optimistic about this upward trend, hoping to recoup losses from the slump in condom sales reported throughout the pandemic.A Durex condom representative told CNBC condom sales were impacted because "the level of socialization [was] low" during June and July of the pandemic in certain countries, leaving less room for sexual encounters. According to the Match.com 2020 Singles in America Survey, 71% of singles reported they haven't had sex during the pandemic. However, trends indicate that things are looking up for both condom sales and sex lives. In addition to the steady increase of condom sales in the US, condom and sex toy brand SKYN found people reported their sex drives are ramping up, too.According to the 2021 SKYN Sex & Intimacy Survey, "39% of respondents reported experiencing an increased sex drive since the start of the pandemic."
Covid ‘Doesn’t Discriminate by Age’: Serious Cases on the Rise in Younger Adults -- After spending much of the past year tending to elderly patients, doctors are seeing a clear demographic shift: young and middle-aged adults make up a growing share of the patients in covid-19 hospital wards. It’s both a sign of the country’s success in protecting the elderly through vaccination and an urgent reminder that younger generations will pay a heavy price if the outbreak is allowed to simmer in communities across the country.“We’re now seeing people in their 30s, 40s and 50s — young people who are really sick,” said Dr. Vishnu Chundi, a specialist in infectious diseases and chair of the Chicago Medical Society’s covid-19 task force. “Most of them make it, but some do not. … I just lost a 32-year-old with two children, so it’s heartbreaking.”Nationally, adults under 50 now account for the most hospitalized covid patients in the country — about 36% of all hospital admissions. Those ages 50 to 64 account for the second-highest number of hospitalizations, or about 31%. Meanwhile, hospitalizations among adults 65 and older have fallen significantly.About 32% of the U.S. population is now fully vaccinated, but the vast majority are people older than 65 — a group that was prioritized in the initial phase of the vaccine rollout.Although new infections are gradually declining nationwide, some regions have contended with a resurgence of the coronavirus in recent months — what some have called a “fourth wave” — propelled by the B.1.1.7 variant, first identified in the United Kingdom, which is estimated to be somewhere between 40% and 70% more contagious.As many states ditch pandemic precautions, this more virulent strain still has ample room to spread among the younger population, which remains broadly susceptible to the disease.The emergence of more dangerous strains of the virus in the U.S. — including variants first discovered in South Africa and Brazil — has made the vaccination effort all the more urgent.“We are in a whole different ballgame,” said Judith Malmgren, an epidemiologist at the University of Washington.Rising infections among young adults create a “reservoir of disease” that eventually “spills over into the rest of society” — one that has yet to reach herd immunity — and portends a broader surge in cases, she said.Fortunately, the chance of dying of covid remains very small for people under 50, but this age group can become seriously ill or experience long-term symptoms after the initial infection. People with underlying conditions such as obesity and heart disease are also more likely to become seriously ill. “B.1.1.7 doesn’t discriminate by age, and when it comes to young people, our messaging on this is still too soft,” Malmgren said.
Healthy young adults who had COVID-19 may have long-term impact on blood vessels and heart health New research published in Experimental Physiology highlight the possible long term health impacts of COVID-19 on young, relatively healthy adults who were not hospitalized and who only had minor symptoms due to the virus. Increased stiffness of arteries in particular was found in young adults, which may impact heart health, and can also be important for other populations who may have had severe cases of the virus. This means that young, healthy adults with mild COVID-19 symptoms may increase their risk of cardiovascular complications which may continue for some time after COVID-19 infection. While SARS-CoV-2, the virus known for causing the COIVD-19 pandemic, is mainly characterized by respiratory symptoms, other studies have recently shown changes to blood vessel function among young adults 3-4 weeks after being infected with SARS-CoV-2 (Ratchford et al., 2021). This has also been observed months after infection in older adults as well (Riou et al. J Clin Med. 2021). The research team at Appalachian State University found that the virus may have detrimental effects to arteries throughout the body, including in the carotid artery which supplies the brain with blood.
Organ transplant recipients remain vulnerable to COVID-19 even after second vaccine dose - In a study published today in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA), Johns Hopkins Medicine researchers show that although two doses of a vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 -- the virus that causes COVID 19 -- confers some protection for people who have received solid organ transplants, it's still not enough to enable them to dispense with masks, physical distancing and other safety measures. This is a follow-up study to an earlier one published in March in JAMA, in which the researchers reported that only 17% of the participating transplant recipients produced sufficient antibodies after just one dose of a two-dose COVID-19 vaccine regimen. "While there was an increase in those with detectable antibodies -- 54% overall -- after the second shot, the number of transplant recipients in our second study whose antibody levels reached high enough levels to ward off a SARS-CoV-2 infection was still well below what's typically seen in people with healthy immune systems," "Based on our findings, we recommend that transplant recipients and other immunocompromised patients continue to practice strict COVID-19 safety precautions, even after vaccination," Boyarsky says. People who receive solid organ transplants (such as hearts, lungs and kidneys) often must take drugs to suppress their immune systems and prevent rejection. Such regimens may interfere with a transplant recipient's ability to make antibodies to foreign substances, including the protective ones produced in response to vaccines. The new study evaluated this immunogenic response following the second dose of either of the two messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines -- made by Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech -- for 658 transplant recipients, none of whom had a prior diagnosis of COVID-19. The participants completed their two-dose regimen between Dec. 16, 2020, and March 13, 2021. In the most recent study, the researchers found that only 98 of the 658 study participants -- 15% -- had detectable antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 at 21 days after the first vaccine dose. This was comparable to the 17% reported in the March study looking at immune response after only one vaccine dose. At 29 days following the second dose, the number of participants with detectable antibodies rose to 357 out of 658 -- 54%. After both vaccine doses were administered, 301 out of 658 participants -- 46% -- had no detectable antibody at all while 259 -- 39% -- only produced antibodies after the second shot.
Flu Has Disappeared During Covid -Since the novel coronavirus began its global spread, influenza cases reported to the World Health Organization have dropped to minuscule levels. The reason, epidemiologists think, is that the public health measures taken to keep the coronavirus from spreading also stop the flu. Influenza viruses are transmitted in much the same way as SARS-CoV-2, but they are less effective at jumping from host to host.As Scientific American reported last fall, the drop-off in flu numbers was both swift and universal. Since then, cases have stayed remarkably low. “There’s just no flu circulating,” says Greg Poland, who has studied the disease at the Mayo Clinic for decades. The U.S. saw about 600 deaths from influenza during the 2020-2021 flu season. In comparison, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated there were roughly 22,000 deaths in the prior season and 34,000 two seasons ago.Because each year’s flu vaccine is based on strains that have been circulating during the past year, it is unclear how next year’s vaccine will fare, should the typical patterns of the disease return. The WHO made its flu strain recommendations for vaccines in late February as usual, but they were based on far fewer cases than in a common year. At the same time, with fewer virus particles circulating in the world, there is less chance of an upcoming mutation, so it is possible the 2021–2022 vaccine will prove extra effective.Public health experts are grateful for the reprieve. Some are also worried about a lost immune response, however. If influenza subsides for several years, today’s toddlers could miss a chance to have an early-age response imprinted on their immune system. That could be good or bad, depending on what strains circulate during the rest of their life. For now, future flu The World Health Organization tracks influenza transmission in 18 zones. Three of those regions appear here. Only people who get tested for influenzalike illnesses—typically about 5 percent of individuals who fall ill—are tallied.
Exploring the Relationship Between Neighborhood Income and Social Distancing during the COVID-19 Pandemic - Physical distancing, also known as social distancing, has been one of the primary strategies adopted by various states and localities as a prevention tool. This typically includes the closure of schools and businesses and “stay-at-home” orders. Evidence indicates that residents of low-income neighborhoods were less likely to stay–at–home in response to COVID-19 compared to higher-income communities. These communities carry anunequal disease burden with higher confirmed caseloads and mortality rates, alongside financial constraints that impact low-income workers the most, given less of an ability to work-from-home. Many essential businesses are staffed by predominantly low-wage workers forced to choose between risking their income and exposure to COVID-19. This increased inequity, which remains unaddressed by public policy, has led to further research. A recent study published in Nature Human Behaviour expanded the current evidence base by investigating the relationship between neighborhood income and physical distancing patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. The authors hypothesized that: 1) the gap in physical distancing practices would be explained by work demands and not by visits to non-work locations, and; 2) state policies that ordered the closure of non-essential businesses and “stay-at-home” orders would contribute to the gap in physical distancing practices between low- and high-income communities. [...] The results of this study and the impacts of COVID-19 emphasize the importance of incorporating social and economic factors into public health responses. Differences in physical distancing patterns based on income level were noticeable yet state policies did not close this gap. It is crucial for policymakers to consider how existing health disparities within certain communities may be exacerbated by new policies. Many unintended consequences can be anticipated and, thus, mitigated. Simultaneously employing other policies alongside physical distancing mandates, such as eviction moratoriums, mandating paid sick leave, and extended unemployment insurance would allow lower-income communities to better protect themselves. A more equitable COVID-19 response would include widespread adoption of these measures, just like the adoption of non-essential business closures and stay-at-home orders.
Report: FDA set to authorize Pfizer vaccine for those as young as 12 - The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is poised to authorize Pfizer and BioNTech's coronavirus vaccine for adolescents as young as age 12 by early next week, The New York Times reported Monday. The highly anticipated decision would be a major step toward ensuring middle and high schools can operate for full in-person learning next fall — and would be a major boon to parents concerned about the safety of summer activities. Pfizer's vaccine is currently authorized for teenagers aged 16 and older. The other two vaccines on the market in the U.S., from Moderna and Johnson & Johnson, are only authorized for adults. An FDA spokeswoman declined to comment, saying only that the review is ongoing. "We can assure the public that we are working to review this request as quickly and transparently as possible," Stephanie Caccomo said. The agency has been reviewing the amended application from Pfizer and BioNTech for nearly a month. The companies cited research from their clinical trial in late March that found the vaccine was effective in the younger population, and produced strong antibody responses. Once the FDA issues its decision, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention vaccine advisory committee will still likely need to meet to vote on the recommendation. The U.S. has fully vaccinated more than 100 million adults, but the pace has dropped off significantly, and officials are trying to change strategy to reach the rest of the population.
Pfizer and BioNTech say they can supply 3B vaccine doses --Pfizer and BioNTech say they can produce as many as 3 billion COVID-19 vaccine doses by the end of 2021. In a statement to Bloomberg, BioNTech said it expected its capacity to create vaccines to exceed 3 billion by 2022. Less than six months prior to this development, the vaccine partners had said they would would be able to produce less than half this amount, indicating a sharp boost in production capability. Bloomberg notes that this comes as demand for mRNA vaccines around the world continues to increase. Pfizer and BioNTech had previously projected they would be able to produce around 2.5 billion doses of their vaccine this year. This announcement also comes after Pfizer announced during an earnings call on Tuesday that its vaccine had earned it $3.5 billion in the first quarter of 2020. As of mid-April, the company said it had signed contracts accounting for 1.6 billion doses to be delivered this year. Its first-quarter revenue totaled $14.6 billion, a 45 percent increase over what it earned in the first quarter of 2020. Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla had said prior to the earnings call that his company expected to have the capacity to make at least 2.5 billion vaccine doses. "Based on what we’ve seen, we believe that a durable demand for our COVID-19 vaccine — similar to that of the flu vaccines — is a likely outcome," he said. During the call, Pfizer also shared that it planned to apply for full approval from the Food and Drug Administration by the end of May, as well as emergency use authorization for a booster shot against COVID-19 variants in July. Pfizer currently accounts for the majority of coronavirus vaccines administered and delivered in the U.S.
Poll shows COVID-19 vaccine enthusiasm has reached a plateau -The American public's enthusiasm for taking a coronavirus vaccine has reached a plateau, according to a new nationwide poll, a sign of the tough road ahead for the Biden administration's vaccination efforts. According to the Kaiser Family Foundation's Vaccine Monitor, the share of adults who have not yet gotten vaccinated but say they intend to do so as soon as they can has fallen to 9 percent. At the same time, about 15 percent of respondents fell into the “wait and see” group, which remained about the same in April compared to March. But among Republicans, more than half now say they’ve gotten at least one dose or will do so as soon as they can. That's a significant increase from the 46 percent of Republicans who expressed enthusiasm about the vaccines in March. At the same time, the share of Republicans who will “definitely not” get vaccinated decreased from 29 percent in March to 20 percent in April. The survey also showed limited eagerness for parents to get their children vaccinated, a troubling trend that's coming just as the Food and Drug Administration is poised to grant authorization for the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine to be used in adolescents aged 12 to 15. Among parents who have at least one child between the ages of 12 and 15, 30 percent said they’ll get their child vaccinated right away, 26 percent wanted to wait to see how it’s working, 18 percent said they will vaccinate only if their child’s school requires it and 23 percent said they will definitely not get their child vaccinated.
CBS: As vaccinations slow, at least 22 states not ordering their full allotment - At least 22 states are not requesting their full coronavirus vaccine allotments for this week as the pace of vaccinations slows around the U.S., according to a CBS News analysis released Monday. CBS says it reached out to health officials in all 50 states, Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico, and of the 38 states that responded, only 16 said they had ordered every vaccine that was available to them. Arkansas health officials told CBS that the state did not order any new vaccines for the week beginning Monday as the state's supply is sufficient for its current rate of inoculation, the only state to say so. South Carolina reportedly only ordered Johnson & Johnson doses, while declining further doses of Moderna's or Pfizer's two-shot vaccines. Federal officials have acknowledged that the pace of U.S. vaccinations is slowing, and some health experts have publicly worried whether the U.S. will reach herd immunity for COVID-19 given that as many as eight or nine out of ever 10 people need to be vaccinated for the population to be effectively immune from the virus. White House press secretary Jen Psaki addressed the slowing vaccination rate last month, noting that the U.S. would soon reach a point where supply outstrips demand and adding that the Biden administration was working to address the issue. “We will ... get to a point where we have greater supply than we have demand is because — only in some regions of the country, I should say, as you know, not everywhere — is because we work quickly to increase supply and provide thousands of easy and convenient locations for people to get vaccinated,” Psaki said. President Biden predicted Monday that the U.S. COVID-19 outbreak would be in a "very different position" by the summer. “I’ve worked very hard to make sure we have over 600 million doses of vaccine,” Biden said. “We are going to continue to make sure that is available. We are going to increase that number across the board as well so we can also be helping other nations once we take care of all Americans.”
Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe - Early in the pandemic, when vaccines for the coronavirus were still just a glimmer on the horizon, the term “herd immunity” came to signify the endgame: the point when enough Americans would be protected from the virus so we could be rid of the pathogen and reclaim our lives. Now, more than half of adults in the United States have been inoculated with at least one dose of a vaccine. But daily vaccination rates are slipping, and there is widespread consensus among scientists and public health experts that the herd immunity threshold is not attainable — at least not in the foreseeable future, and perhaps not ever. Instead, they are coming to the conclusion that rather than making a long-promised exit, the virus will most likely become a manageable threat that will continue to circulate in the United States for years to come, still causing hospitalizations and deaths but in much smaller numbers. How much smaller is uncertain and depends in part on how much of the nation, and the world, becomes vaccinated and how the coronavirus evolves. It is already clear, however, that the virus is changing too quickly, new variants are spreading too easily and vaccination is proceeding too slowly for herd immunity to be within reach anytime soon. Continued immunizations, especially for people at highest risk because of age, exposure or health status, will be crucial to limiting the severity of outbreaks, if not their frequency, experts believe. “The virus is unlikely to go away,” said Rustom Antia, an evolutionary biologist at Emory University in Atlanta. “But we want to do all we can to check that it’s likely to become a mild infection.” The shift in outlook presents a new challenge for public health authorities. The drive for herd immunity — by the summer, some experts once thought possible — captured the imagination of large segments of the public. To say the goal will not be attained adds another “why bother” to the list of reasons that vaccine skeptics use to avoid being inoculated. Yet vaccinations remain the key to transforming the virus into a controllable threat, experts said. Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the Biden administration’s top adviser on Covid-19, acknowledged the shift in experts’ thinking. “People were getting confused and thinking you’re never going to get the infections down until you reach this mystical level of herd immunity, whatever that number is,” he said. “That’s why we stopped using herd immunity in the classic sense,” he added. “I’m saying: Forget that for a second. You vaccinate enough people, the infections are going to go down.”
CVS, Walgreens wasted thousands of COVID-19 vaccines: report - Pharmacy chains Walgreens and CVS have wasted thousands of COVID-19 vaccines according to a report from Kaiser Health News (KHN) published on Monday citing which cites government data it has obtained. KHN reports that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recorded 182,874 wasted doses in late March, with CVS responsible for about half of those unused doses. Walgreens was responsible for about 21 percent of the overall wasted doses. In total, the two pharmacy chains wasted around 128,500 coronavirus vaccine shots, according to the data. Of the wasted vaccines, those produced by Pfizer account for about 60 percent. This data indicates that the two pharmacy retailers have wasted more shots than all U.S. states, territories and federal agencies combined, KHN reports. It is unclear why the pharmacy companies wasted so many shots, KHN reports, and the CDC does not yet have a full view of many vaccines are going to waste. Michael DeAngelis, a spokesperson for CVS, blamed the wasted shots on “issues with transportation restrictions, limitations on redirecting unused doses, and other factors.” “Despite the inherent challenges, our teams were able to limit waste to approximately one dose per onsite vaccination clinic,” DeAngelis added. A spokesperson for Walgreens, Kris Lathan, told the outlet, “Our goal has always been ensuring every dose of vaccine is used." However, KHN notes that the overall amount of wasted vaccines is minimal when compared to the nearly 190 million that have been delivered and the 148 million that have been administered in the U.S.
May 4th COVID-19 Vaccinations, New Cases, Hospitalizations - President Biden has set two vaccinations goals to achieve by July 4th1) 70% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose of vaccine, and
2) 160 million Americans fully vaccinated.
According to the CDC, on Vaccinations
1) 56.4% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose.
2) 106.2 million Americans are fully vaccinated.
And check out COVID Act Now to see how each state is doing. Over 1,500 US deaths were reported so far in May due to COVID.This graph shows the daily (columns) 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.Note: The ups and downs during the Winter surge were related to reporting delays due to the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays.This data is from the CDC.The 7-day average is 48,493, down from 49,192 yesterday, and down from the recent peak of 69,881 on April 13, 2021. This is the lowest since October 9, 2020, but well above the post-summer surge low of 34,668.The second graph shows the number of people hospitalized. This data is also from the CDC.The CDC cautions that due to reporting delays, the area in grey will probably increase. The current 7-day average is 34,287, up from 34,012 reported yesterday, and well above the post-summer surge low of 23,000.
New US COVID Cases Tumble Despite 25% Drop In Daily Vaccinations -Following almost two months of roughly flat-lining new Covid cases in the US, we are now again seeing clear signs of new improvement despite a notable slowdown in covid immunizations.In recent days, many in the administration and its media propaganda arm, have tried to spook the broader population with scary stories that the recent pace of vaccinations will slow down sufficiently to prevent herd immunity from being reached, hoping to force any holdouts to get vaccinated. As a reference, as of Monday, the US population has received ~246M vaccines, or ~45% of the doses needed for full vaccination of the entire 12+ yo population (assuming two doses are needed for full vaccination).Here are the facts: as Morgan Stanley notes, since the J&J pause (which has since been reversed), 7-day average daily vaccinations have declined by ~26% (3.4M to 2.5M). However, it's not all just J&J: as Morgan Stanley's Matthew Harrison notes next, along with the decrease in the rate of J&J vaccine administration starting on April 13th, the administration rate of the other two available vaccines in the US (by Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna) has also declined. Specifically, while use of the J&J vaccine has declined ~85% from the date of the pause in use, use of the Pfizer vaccine is down ~18% (~18% from peak) and use of the Moderna vaccine is down ~11% (~18% from peak). Therefore, the recent reduction in the total vaccination rate in the US is driven by a decrease in the administration rate of all available vaccines in the US.
NYC COVID Variant Does Not Cause More Severe Disease, CDC Says – The so-called "NYC variant" of COVID-19 does not appear to cause more severe disease than other versions of the virus, nor does it appear to increase reinfection risk, the CDC said in a new report Wednesday. Also known as B.1.526, the variant first appeared in Nov. 2020 in Washington Heights and spread rapidly. By early April, the CDC said, it accounted for 40 percent of all city cases in a representative sample tested by two labs. For the last few months, the city has warned it was too soon to tell whether this new variant was more dangerous than the "original" COVID, or as or more dangerous than other variants like those found in the UK, South Africa and Brazil. The CDC's report appears to put at least some of those fears to rest. "Preliminary evidence suggests that, to date, B.1.526 does not lead to more severe disease or increased risk for infection after vaccination," the CDC said. The agency added that the presence of a particular mutation in some cases of the NYC variant -- one known to otherwise interfere with antibodies -- did not seem to make this variant any worse either. "Although the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.526 variant emerged rapidly in NYC, early evidence suggests that this variant, even with the E484K mutation, does not lead to more severe disease and is not associated with increased risk for breakthrough infection or reinfection compared with other sequenced SARS-CoV-2 viruses," the CDC said. The NYC variant, along with the U.K. (B.1.1.7), Brazilian (P.1) and South African (B.1.351) strains have proven to all be more transmissible than earlier strains of COVID, which is why they are known as "variants of concern" or "variants of interest." The B.1.1.7 strain is described as a "variant of concern" because evidence shows it causes more severe infections than earlier strains. It may also be more lethal. The P.1 variant also is considered a variant of concern because evidence shows antibodies from previous infection or from vaccination may be less effective against it. 2:13 Exclusive Look Into a New Rapid Test to Detect COVID Variants New real time information is allowing scientists at Hackensack Medical Center to develop a new rapid test that detects COVID-19 variants. NBC New York's Brian Thompson reports. The B.1.526 and B.1.1.7 variants have been detected in all five boroughs, though the former is slightly more common in the Bronx and parts of Queens. The U.K. strain is slightly more common in southern Brooklyn, eastern Queens and Staten Island.
IDPH: New COVID-19 strain detected in Iowa - The Iowa Department of Public Health confirmed two cases Tuesday of theCOVID-19 variant SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.Iowa Public Health officials said this variant was first detected in India. Scientists are still learning about the characteristics of this strain.“B.1.617 is not designated as a ‘variant of concern,’ indicating that there is not currently evidence of increased transmissibility or more severe disease caused by this variant. However, we share this information as a matter of public interest given the virus impact and newly issued travel restrictions to India. The P.1 and B.1.1.7 variant strains which were previously confirmed by IDPH are considered ‘variants of concern.’” IDPH said through a news release.Health officials said the cases were detected in an adult and an older adult in Jefferson County. IDPH and local public health have initiated contact with the individuals to understand exposures and initiate the public health monitoring process.IDPH said the case was identified by the State Hygienic Lab. “Getting vaccinated against COVID-19 is the best way to prevent this, or any other currently circulating strain of the virus from spreading through the population. Since the vaccine is now open to all Iowans over the age of 16, we have the opportunity to use this tool to protect ourselves, our loved ones and our communities,”
Brazilian COVID-19 Variant Found to be More Transmissible - A recent study conducted by investigators from Brazil, the United Kingdom and the University of Copenhagen has found that theCOVID-19 variant P.1, which originated in Brazil, is more transmissible than the original virus and is able to evade immunity.Results from the study were published in the journal Science.The city of Manaus is currently experiencing a deadly second wave of the pandemic, and many investigators believe that the novel variant is the driving force behind it.“Our main explanation is that there is an aggressive variant of the coronavirus called P.1 which seems be the cause of their problems,” Samir Bhatt, a corresponding author on the study said. “Our epidemiological model indicates that P.1 is likely to be more transmissible than previous strains of coronavirus and likely to be able to evade immunity gained from infection with other strains.”For the study, the team of investigators employed many different forms of data from the city, including 184 samples of genetic sequencing data and mortality counts, in order to characterize the P.1 variant and its properties.They then used an epidemiological model to estimate just how transmissible the variant was, and also estimated how it could evade immunity gained from a previous COVID-19 infection.Findings from the study demonstrated that the P.1 variant is likely to be between 1.7 and 2.4 times more transmissible that other lineages of the virus. They also determined that P.1 is able to evade 10% to 46% of immunity gained from a previous infection.“As researchers, we have to caution extrapolating these results to be applicable anywhere else in the world,” Bhatt said. “However, our results do underline the fact that more surveillance of the infections and of the different strains of the virus is needed in many countries in order to get the pandemic fully under control.”
COVID-19 P.1 variant discovered in Yolo County, shedding light on the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 - Despite the development of vaccines and fast testing methods, SARS-CoV-2 continues to mutate and pose threats to our community. According to a recent news release by Healthy Davis Together, the P.1 variant of the virus has been identified in Yolo County. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), this variant was first identified in Brazil, and contains 17 unique mutations, three of which are specific to the receptor binding domain of the spike protein. Richard Michelmore, the director of the UC Davis Genome Center, explained that although mutations are constantly occurring in the genome, most of the time these changes do not have an impact on the virus. However, there are times that these mutations become advantageous and cause the virus to evolve. “One of the selection pressures for a virus is to increase transmissibility,” Michelmore said. “So if a virus is more transmissible, it’s going to be more successful, and we have seen a number of mutations in the virus, particularly in the receptor binding domain of the ACE-2 receptor that confer greater transmissibility.” According to the CDC, the P.1 variant is a variant of concern, meaning “a variant for which there is evidence of an increase in transmissibility, more severe disease (e.g., increased hospitalizations or deaths), significant reduction in neutralization by antibodies generated during previous infection or vaccination, reduced effectiveness of treatments or vaccines or diagnostic detection failures.” Frank Schneegas, a public information officer at Yolo County, explained that due to the status of the P.1 variant, it is still important for people to follow public health guidance to reduce the number of infections. He further emphasized the importance for people to receive their COVID-19 vaccinations. Although there is some risk that the vaccine may be potentially less effective against these newer variants, the vaccines have been shown to still be effective.
More than half of Michigan adults have had at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose --Michigan announced on Friday that 54 percent of adults in the state have received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine. The figure, rolled out on the state's COVID-19 dashboard, marks a roughly 2.5 percentage point jump after including people who got their shots outside the state or at federal facilities. The new tracker incorporates data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which uses data from out-of-state providers and federal sites. Nearly 4.4 million Michiganders ages 16 and up have gotten at least one shot. The new high-water mark puts the state in striking distance of the 55 percent threshold Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) has said is needed to allow in-person services in all sectors. Sports stadiums, banquet halls, conference centers and funeral homes will be able to be 25 percent full once 60 percent of residents have at least one dose, and all indoor capacity restrictions will be removed two weeks after 65 percent of residents get at least one shot. Orders regarding masks and large gatherings will not be removed until 70 percent of the state is vaccinated. The new milestone in the Great Lakes State comes after Michigan in April faced the highest rate of new COVID-19 cases per capita of any state in the country.
May 7th COVID-19 Vaccinations, New Cases, Hospitalizations -President Biden has set two vaccinations goals to achieve by July 4th:1) 70% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose of vaccine, and
2) 160 million Americans fully vaccinated.
According to the CDC, on Vaccinations
1) 57.4% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose.
2) 109.9 million Americans are fully vaccinated.
And check out COVID Act Now to see how each state is doing. Almost 4,000 US deaths were reported so far in May due to COVID. This graph shows the daily (columns) 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported. Note: The ups and downs during the Winter surge were related to reporting delays due to the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays. This data is from the CDC. The 7-day average is 43,879, down from 46,083 yesterday, and down from the recent peak of 69,881 on April 13, 2021. This is the lowest since October 4, 2020, but still above the post-summer surge low of 34,668. The second graph shows the number of people hospitalized. This data is also from the CDC. The CDC cautions that due to reporting delays, the area in grey will probably increase.The current 7-day average is 33,265, down from 33,808 reported yesterday, and well above the post-summer surge low of 23,000.
10 residents live in isolation at Hawaii’s last leprosy community - The Kalaupapa peninsula lies in a remote area of Molokai island in Hawaii, at the base of a 2,000-foot sea cliff wall and surrounded by ocean on three sides. The massive bluffs cut off Kalaupapa from the rest of Molokai, and Kalaupapa is only accessible by plane, hiking, mule ride, or a rough boat ride.There is no way to drive into Kalaupapa, which is home to a population of 10 people, the remaining patients of what was once an infamous leprosy community. Now elderly, they were forced to live here at Kalaupapa against their will.As the world continues to battle the COVID-19 pandemic, the people exiled so long ago and shuttered from the public, are now doing everything they can to protect themselves from the world and the novel coronavirus.“They’ve endured isolation, and lived a significant portion of their lives in segregation, and now it’s reversed,” says Miki'ala Pescaia, interpretive park ranger at Kalaupapa National Historical Park. “Their isolation was imposed upon them in a way to protect the public from them, and now, we’re trying to protect them from the public.” Today, about 95% of people are immune to leprosy, and those who do come into contact with it can use antibiotics for treatment. However, in the late 1800s, leprosy, an infectious disease spread from person to person through prolonged contact that affects the skin, eyes, and nerves, was a mysterious illness in the Hawaiian islands. At the time, there was no treatment or cure for the disease as it reached epidemic proportions on the islands and threatened to wipe out the native Hawaiian population. The indigenous peoples of Hawaii did not have immunity to withstand foreign disease, due to the isolation of the islands. In an effort to stop the spread of Hansen’s disease, Hawaii passed “An Act to Prevent the Spread of Leprosy” in 1865, and designated Kalaupapa as the place where those with leprosy — and those suspected of having it — would reside. The state purchased 800 acres of land on the Kalaupapa peninsula, and began forcing people, mainly native Hawaiians, to Kalaupapa to live out the rest of their days, relying on themselves for food and resources. In January 1866, 12 Hawaiian citizens arrived at Kalaupapa, the first of about 8,000 people who were taken from their families and homes, and forced into isolation.
New study doubles global COVID-19 death toll -- The number of global COVID-19 deaths is twice as high as officially reported—6.93 million globally, 905,000 in the United States alone—according to a new study by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). These new figures were reported Thursday in an analysis of “excess mortality” by the IHME. Importantly, the study includes only under-reported deaths from COVID-19, and excludes deaths from other causes related to the pandemic—including delayed medical care and “deaths of despair” such as suicides or overdoses, related to the social crisis triggered by the pandemic. The research presents a disastrous picture of the toll of the pandemic and is an indictment of the capitalist order that has allowed death on this scale to occur. If, in the words of the British medical journal BMJ, nearly 3.3 million deaths are “social murder,” what does the doubling of this death toll signify? By any measure, this is the largest public health disaster ever in the United States. 905,000 deaths are greater than all the combat and non-combat deaths in the American Civil War, the nation’s bloodiest conflict. 905,000 deaths represent one in every 367 men, women, and children in the US. 905,000 deaths are more than double the combined combat casualties of all US wars fought since the Spanish-American War in 1898, including World War I, World War II, the Korean War and the Vietnam War. Almost equally astounding is that the new estimates have gone essentially unreported in the media. The IHME has been used as the semi-official coronavirus case and death count prediction team for more than a year, referred to multiple times by the New York Times, Washington Post, and numerous others. But no matter the efforts by the media to bury this report, such a colossal loss of life has the most far-reaching implications. It is a brutal indictment of the American ruling elite and the capitalist governments of the entire world. Such mass death was not an accident, but the product of deliberate policy. The world’s ruling elite was well aware of the threat posed by the virus, but refused to raise the alarm. While Trump sought to “play down” the virus, despite being aware that “[t]his is deadly stuff,” Congress and the media received numerous briefings and interviews about the scale of the looming disaster. Yet no alarms were raised either by the White House or the media until March. Instead, plans were developed to protect the world’s markets, not human lives. In the United States and Europe, trillions of dollars and euros were pumped into financial markets, while virtually nothing was being devoted towards minimizing the impact of the pandemic, which at that point had already claimed tens of thousands of lives.
EU open to discussion on coronavirus vaccine waiver -The European Union is prepared to have a discussion on waiving international patent protections for coronavirus vaccines after the U.S. declared it would back such a move at the World Trade Organization (WTO). European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU would be open to the prospect as part of any proposal to handle the pandemic “in an effective and pragmatic manner.” “That’s why we are ready to discuss how the U.S. proposal for a waiver on intellectual property protections for COVID-19 vaccines could help achieve that objective,” she said in a speech to the European University Institute in Florence. The announcement comes a day after U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai said that the U.S. would support a waiver as countries across the globe grapple with worrisome spikes in COVID-19 cases. "The Administration believes strongly in intellectual property protections, but in service of ending this pandemic, supports the waiver of those protections for COVID-19 vaccines," Tai said in a statement. The WTO is currently negotiating the precise language of such a waiver, talks that Tai said “will take time given the consensus-based nature of the institution and the complexity of the issues involved.” World powers have come under increased pressure from activists and lower-income countries that have struggled to get their coronavirus outbreaks under control. Wealthy countries have purchased more than half of nearly 9 billion doses that have been sold to date, according to the Duke Global Health Innovation Center. Meanwhile, India is currently experiencing one of the worst waves of cases the world has seen since the pandemic’s start, and countries like South Africa are still facing high case counts due to highly infectious variants.
Pfizer CEO discussing expedited vaccine approval with India - Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said in a LinkedIn post Monday that his company would be donating $70 million worth of medicines to India and was also discussing fast-tracking its vaccine approval in the country as it battles a massive wave of new coronavirus cases. Bourla wrote that Pfizer would be donating steroids, anticoagulants and antibiotics to ensure "every COVID-19 patient in every public hospital across the country can have access to Pfizer medicines they need free of charge." "Pfizer is aware that access to vaccines is critical to ending this pandemic. Unfortunately, our vaccine is not registered in India although our application was submitted months ago," Bourla said. "We are currently discussing with the Indian government an expedited approval pathway to make our Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine available for use in the country." "As we work to meet the public health needs and to be a partner with the Government of India to establish a path forward for our vaccine, please know you and your loved ones are foremost in our thoughts and prayers," Bourla added. India has so far approved four COVID-19 vaccines for use: Covaxin, Sputnik V, AstraZeneca and Covishield. Covaxin and Covishield were both created in India. According to to the World Health Organization, India has confirmed around 20 million coronavirus cases and more than 200,000 deaths. More than 147 million vaccine doses have been administered in the country, which has a population of more than 1.3 billion.
India Just Became Latest Country to Approve Use of Ivermectin to Treat Covid-19 - Doctors in India, the world’s second most populous country, are locked in an epic, gruesome battle against SARS Cov2. The country currently accounts for half of the world’s cases. Many cities are running out of hospital beds. As happened in Mexico and Brazil just a few months ago, medicinal Oxygen has become dangerously scarce and is being sold on the black market at extortionate prices. As of last week fewer than 10% of Indians had received even one dose of a vaccine. Just 1.6% are fully vaccinated, according to a New York Times database — even though India is producing two vaccines on its own soil and is home to the world’s biggest vaccine manufacturer. This time around, India’s government has spectacularly failed to contain the spread of the disease, largely due to its own complacency. Many doctors are prescribing Remdesivir despite the medicine’s high cost and lackluster performance in clinical studies and unproven safety record. There has been a surge in black market sales of the drug as people have rushed to try to secure it, leading to a crunch in its supply. A single vial can go for Rs30,000 — ten times the official retail price. As Jerri Lynn reported on Sunday, the huge uncontrolled wave of infections hitting India is having all sorts of implications for the Modi government. In its desperation to regain control of the virus, India’s government quietly changed its treatment guidelines last week. The new guidelines include the option of prescribing two repurposed medicines for mild Covid patients: budesonid and ivermectin. The former is an inhaled steroid that has been shown to reduce the time to recovery and need for urgent medical care. The latter is an off-patent anti-parasitic that has been discovered to have powerful anti-viral and anti-inflammatory properties. India is no stranger to ivermectin. The medicine has been used as an anti-parasitic for decades. It has also been used in the fight against malaria. Two of its regions, Uttar Pradesh (population: 230 million) and Bihar, have been using the medicine since August, to dramatic effect. By the end of 2020, Uttar Pradesh (UP) — which distributed free ivermectin for home care — had the second-lowest fatality rate in India at 0.26 per 100,000 residents. Only the state of Bihar, with 128 million residents, had less. But Uttar Pradesh (UP) did more than treat 300,000 mild cases at home through 2020; it also opted to use ivermectin to prevent infection. COVID response teams began taking the drug and they did not catch the illness. The same thing was reported in a study of frontline critical care workers in Argentina. U.P. then had contacts of COVID patients take it, with similar success. “Recognizing the sense of urgency,” Amit Mohan Prasad, a U.P. health official, wrote in a Dec. 30 article, “we decided to go ahead.” Yet UP’s remarkable success at controlling the virus did not inform national policy — at least not until now. The Indian Council of Medical Research declined in October to recommend ivermectin nationwide, citing, like so many health regulators, the need for more data. But all that changed last week as India became the biggest country on the planet to adopt nationwide use of ivermectin against Covid-19.
It’s Not Just India. New Virus Waves Hit Developing Countries --It’s not just India. Fierce new Covid-19 waves are enveloping other developing countries across the world, placing severe strain on their health-care systems and prompting appeals for help. Nations ranging from Laos to Thailand in Southeast Asia, and those bordering India such as Bhutan and Nepal, have been reporting significant surges in infections in the past few weeks. The increase is mainly because of more contagious virus variants, though complacency and lack of resources to contain the spread have also been cited as reasons. In Laos last week, the health minister sought medical equipment, supplies and treatment, as cases jumped more than 200-fold in a month. Nepal is seeing hospitals quickly filling up and running out of oxygen supplies. Health facilities are under pressure in Thailand, where 98% of new cases are from a more infectious strain of the pathogen, while some island nations in the Pacific Ocean are facing their first Covid waves.Although nowhere close to India’s population or flare-up in scope, the reported spikes in these handful of nations have been far steeper, signaling the potential dangers of an uncontrolled spread. The resurgence -- and first-time outbreaks in some places that largely avoided the scourge last year -- heightens the urgency of delivering vaccine supplies to poorer, less influential countries and averting a protracted pandemic. “It’s very important to realize that the situation in India can happen anywhere,” said Hans Kluge, the regional director at the World Health Organization for Europe, during a briefing last week. “This is still a huge challenge.” Ranked by the change in newly recorded infections in the past month over the previous month, Laos came first with a 22,000% increase, followed by Nepal and Thailand, both of which saw fresh caseload skyrocketing more than 1,000% on a month-over-month basis. Also on top of the list are Bhutan, Trinidad and Tobago, Suriname, Cambodia and Fiji, as they witnessed the epidemic erupt at a high triple-digit pace. “All countries are at risk,” said David Heymann, a professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. “The disease appears to be becoming endemic and will therefore likely remain a risk to all countries for the foreseeable future.”
Young Delhi resident describes India’s COVID-19 catastrophe - India is submerged in a horrific surge of COVID-19, believed to be driven by a double-mutant strain of the coronavirus. Like the Brazilian and South African variants, this variant appears to reduce vaccine effectiveness and natural immunity acquired from previous infections. India is now the country recording the most cases of COVID-19 in the world, nearly 400,000 per day. Over 220,000 people have died of the virus in India. Vaibhavi, a youth from Delhi who has been unemployed and is now living with family in nearby Gurgaon since returning to India last year after graduating from college abroad, spoke to the WSWS on the catastrophe unfolding in India. She said, “I have never been surrounded by such a huge loss of human life. … It seems COVID and death are everywhere. Every family I know either has or has had COVID in the past few weeks. On my old street in Delhi, every single house has a COVID infection.” She added, “Last week, my cousin in Kanpur died. He was only 34. Two of my high school friends’ parents have died in the last two days. … A very close friend messaged me and our other friends two days ago, desperately searching for oxygen because her granddad is very sick in a home ICU. Yesterday, I had to find an oxygen concentrator for my aunt. I was able to find one on Twitter, but it’s cost my family 85,000 rupees ($1,150).” Conditions are horrific in hospitals, many of which have no free beds, Vaibhavi said: “Doctors who haven’t slept for days have patients dying due to the lack of basic resources. One video shows doctors and family members desperately trying to resuscitate patients, only for them to die. There’s even been violence when people can’t find the care their family members need. Many hospitals have just begun locking their gates, leaving people stuck outside with their relatives dying in their arms.” She added, “All the crematoriums in Delhi are overfilled. Many crematoriums are overflowing into the street or using car parks to burn bodies. There are even makeshift funeral pyres to burn multiple bodies at once. One crematorium with a capacity of 20 bodies had 93 bodies come two days ago. Families are forced to dump their relatives outside crematoriums with no funeral rites or any dignity. Many crematoriums report burning an increased number of children’s bodies, as well.” Official statistics massively underestimate coronavirus infections and deaths, Vaibhavi noted: “Deaths are only counted as COVID-related if there is a test or a doctor’s report from a hospital. Most who die at home aren’t tested. People see all the images of people choking to death in hospital entrances, so they don’t even try to take their relatives there. There are also no tests in Delhi at the moment. Many labs have closed completely due to the entire staff being infected with the virus.”
Country With World's Highest Vaccination Rate Orders New Lockdown As COVID Cases Surge --While most people might guess that Israel or the UK hold the title, the tiny island nation of Seychelles is actually the most vaccinated country on earth, with more than 62% of its adult population already "fully vaccinated", according to a BBC report. However, despite the fact that the island nation is closing in on the herd immunity threshold, the country and its public health officials have been forced this week to reimpose restrictions due to a surge in COVID-19 cases. All schools in the country have been closed and sporting activities cancelled for two weeks in the country, which is spread across an archipelago in the Indian Ocean. Measures also include a ban on inter-household interaction, some types of in-person gatherings, and the early closure of shops, bars and casinos. Non-essential workers are also being encouraged to work from home, while a 2300 local time curfew has been revived. There are currently 1.07K active Covid cases in the Seychelles, of which a third have been detected in people given two doses of either AstraZeneca's or China's Sinopharm's vaccine. It unclear what has triggered the surge in cases but testing has detected the South African variant spreading on the islands. Scientists believe the mutant strain can evade immunity and make jabs up to 30 per cent weaker at preventing infections — but they think Western vaccines should still stop people falling severely ill if they get infected. But because Seychelles is not actively analyzing a large amount of positive tests (something the UK and other countries are doing to monitor the spread of variants) it is difficult to tell exactly which strain has taken hold in the country. But the country's close links to South Africa means it is likely the B.1.351 variant could be behind the rise. Seychelles was added to Britain's travel "red list" in January along with nine southern African countries and Mauritius in a bid to prevent the UK from importing the strain.
Seychelles, World’s Most Vaccinated Country, Hit by Covid Surge….Including Among the Vaccinated - by Yves Smith --The Seychelles is a tiny country, with a population of less than 100,000 people. It is nevertheless providing a cautionary tale in what happens if you relax Covid protections and rely over-much on vaccinations as your Covid firewall. It’s in the midst of a Covid outbreak so severe that it has had to reimpose lockdown-type measures like closing bars and schools, despite having over 60% of its adults fully vaccinated. The trigger appears to have been reopening the archipelago for tourism. From Bloomberg: Seychelles, which has fully vaccinated more of its population against COVID-19 than any other country, has closed schools and canceled sporting activities for two weeks as infections surge… To date 62.2% of its eligible population is fully vaccinated, according to the Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker. That compares with 55.9% for Israel, the next most vaccinated nation. Colonel Smithers added via e-mail: The BBC article [cited below] did not mention that a few weeks ago Seychelles and Maldives opened their borders to tourism, somewhat to the envy of their competitor for tourist hard currency Mauritius. The big Mauritian hotel operators have hotels in Seychelles and Maldives and have been lobbying for Mauritius to open, too, and cited the example of the pair. This included getting a doctor heiress to a hotel fortune, amongst other sources of income, to write about the need to open in the island’s largest circulation newspaper. Seychelles and Maldives have been advertising that they are open for business in the likes of the FT and Guardian and on CNN in the past fortnight. Not just tourism, but people able to and wishing to work from home or just sit out the pandemic for a while in the tropics, not necessarily those with any connections to the archipelagos. One wonders if variants from around the world which render the current vaccines ineffective have caused this. It is hard to blame vaccine choice. Seychelles used Sinopharm, which according to the BBC, has performed well, and AstraZeneca. And as you can see from the chart below, these vaccines don’t require as much special handling as the mRNA alternatives, meaning the odds of spoilage would be lower. From the BBC: The Seychelles, which has fully vaccinated over 60% of its population against Covid-19, is bringing back restrictions amid a rise in cases. The archipelago of nearly 100,000 people recorded close to 500 new cases in the three days to 1 May and has about 1,000 active cases. A third of the active cases involved people who had had two vaccine doses, the country’s news agency said…. We don’t have more granular data as to whether the bad outcomes occurred heavily among citizens who weren’t far enough past their second shot to have received full immunity. But this is still not a good look.
India reports almost 4,000 daily COVID-19 deaths as the country faces severe vaccine shortages -- The current surge in COVID-19 infections throughout India has no precedent in the entire course of the COVID-19 pandemic. A new record of daily cases was set just yesterday when the toll reached an astronomical high of 412,618, accounting for nearly half of the 850,000 global cases reported.The number of deaths in India from the coronavirus was also the highest ever reported for the country, reaching 3,980. By every account, these numbers are vastly understated, given India’s archaic and dysfunctional official registry for documenting mortality.Globally, the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases is approaching 160 million, while reported deaths stand at 3.26 million. For 10 successive weeks, daily COVID-19 cases throughout the world have been climbing steadily. This appears to have reached a new plateau last week with an increase of only 0.13 percent from the previous week.Deaths, however, continue to rise. Yesterday, worldwide, there were 14,567 deaths tallied. South America accounted for 4,418 of these, as Brazil and many Latin American countries continue to face repeated surges of new infections followed by deaths that seem unending. Meanwhile, North America and Europe have reported 1,303 and 2,809 deaths respectively, down from their peaks just a few months ago.Asia reported 5,713 deaths, with India contributing the lion’s share to this grim statistic, a complete inverse of the developments, in the first year of the pandemic, when Europe and the US appeared as the epicenters of the pandemic, and the poorer countries were relatively less affected.The reversal of fortunes for the US and Europe is by no means because of a change in tactics or implementing scientific and critical public health measures. Instead, the imperialist centers have taken advantage of possessing well-developed pharmaceutical industries which, with massive government funded, rolled out effective vaccinations much more quickly than initially expected.The ensuing policy of vaccine nationalism means to inoculate the population and declare the pandemic finally over, while the most tragic and ominous developments continue in Latin America and Asia (as well as in the poorer sections of the advanced regions themselves).
This village’s story shows just how unprepared rural India is for the latest COVID surge - When 55-year-old Shrirang Gavde began gasping for breath at his home in the western Indian state of Maharashtra on April 24, his wife and son sat him in an auto-rickshaw and commenced their desperate search for a hospital bed. Over the next few hours, they visited roughly 15 facilities near their village in the Palghar district of the state, only to be turned away each time. Eventually, Gavde’s oxygen saturation levels plummeted, and by the time they’d arrived at a hospital that seemed promising, he was already dead. For two hours, the family stayed with the body in the auto-rickshaw, waiting for a doctor to check him. No one came. During the first wave of the pandemic last year, such scenes were initially limited to India’s densely populated cities. But as a second wave of COVID-19 now ravages the country, wide swaths of rural India—home to nearly 900 million people, often with far fewer resources—now find themselves in the pandemic’s grip. “A lot of people are trying to run around and access care,” sats Anant Bhan, a global health researcher affiliated with the Kasturba Medical College in Karnataka, “because our health system is relatively much weaker in rural India.” The escalating scourge and the shortage of available emergency services has prompted a sort of mass migration, with thousands of villagers flowing toward urban centers—sometimes in other states—in a desperate attempt to find care. Others, seeing few options, are turning to pseudoscientific healers for unproven treatments. And as the death toll rises, those who are not yet ill face a wrenching loss of livelihood, as renewed COVID-19 restrictions confine them to their homes and push them deeper into poverty.“There are many patients here, whom their families rushed to hospitals. However, there were no beds, oxygen cylinders, and ventilators available,” says Jatin Kadam, a 39-year-old schoolteacher in Saphale, another village in the Palghar district—a mostly rural region and among the worst hit areas of the state, with more than 88,000 total cases as of this week, and only a few thousand hospital beds. Intensive care spots are filled to capacity, and there are currently no ventilators available, according to government data. “There has been such an increase in the number of deaths,” Kadam says, “that we don’t even remember all their names.”
Indian CDC Says Covid Surge Is Linked To B.1.617 Variant --A recent surge in Coronavirus infections has helped pushed India to 21 million cases and 230,000 deaths due to Covid.What is causing the surge in Covid-19?One contributing factor seems to be a new strain (or 'lineage') of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus: the B.1.617 variant. Until recently, however, there wasn't enough data to determine whether B.1.617 is playing a part. In March 2021, India's National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) — equivalent to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) — claimed that the variant had been observed in too few samples to establish a link to the surge. But the health agency now says B.1.617 is linked to the surge, based on sampling more people in several Indian states. According to Sujeet Kumar Singh, the director of India's NCDC, "The current surge in cases seen over the last one and half month in some states shows a correlation with rise in the B.1.617 lineage." At a press conference on 5 May 2021, Singh added that the "epidemiological and clinical correlation is not fully established [and] without the correlation, we cannot establish direct linkage to any surge." Singh's wording is confusing as the words 'correlation' and 'linkage' serve as synonyms in everyday speech. In the first quote, Singh used 'correlation' in the colloquial sense — a link between two things — whereas, in the second instance, he meant a statistical association, a relationship where one thing (variable) depends on the other. Scientists love to say "correlation does not imply causation" and Singh was probably trying to avoid the suggestion that B.1.617 is the cause of the surge. The NCDC director needed to be careful with language when discussing a problem that involves people — including Covid outbreaks — as cause can lead to blame. B.1.617 has been detected in over 25 countries to date, but it was first discovered in India. As a consequence, the country's health agency was stuck between a rock and a hard place due to the potential impact on society and global politics.
More virulent COVID strain, insufficient infra have led to more deaths in Delhi: Experts --A more virulent strain of coronavirus, insufficient infrastructure to handle critical cases and hoarding of essential drugs has led to more deaths in Delhi, experts said on Tuesday. They also said the number of deaths could be more as many patients die outside hospitals waiting for a bed. Dr Jugal Kishore, the head of community medicine at Safdarjung Hospital, said the 'insufficiency of infrastructure' to handle critical patients is leading to more deaths. 'The virus is not causing so many deaths, it is the insufficient resources and facilities. This is the major reason,' he said. Critical cases are piling up but there are no beds available for them. Many patients have died on the way to hospitals or outside healthcare facilities waiting for a bed, while many have died due to unavailability of oxygen, Dr Kishore said. Critical patients spend 10 to 20 days in ICU or on oxygen support. So, the beds remain occupied for this period, even as the number of critical cases keep increasing every day, he said. Black-marketing and hoarding of essential drugs being used to treat critical patients is another reason. 'This has limited the people's access to these drugs,' he said. Sudhanshu Bankata, the Executive Director of Batra Hospital in Tughlakabad Institutional Area, said a critical patient succumbs to the virus after 14 to 15 days of testing positive. 'So, if there are more cases today, the number of deaths will be high on the 14th or the 15th day,' he said. Bankata also said that a large number of patients are being treated at home, as hospital beds are full. 'In many cases, patients require high oxygen flow which can only be provided at hospitals and not through concentrators or cylinders. By the time a bed becomes available, their situation has already deteriorated sharply,' he said. Dr D K Baluja, medical director of Jaipur Golden Hospital, said, 'The quantum (of infections) is very high. The number of cases has increased from 8,000 to 25,000. So, the absolute number of deaths will be three times more.' 'Your logistics, manpower, everything crashes in such a situation. The way the load is increasing, your capacity is not able to match up to it,' he said. Of the 17,414 COVID-19 deaths in Delhi since the pandemic began, more than 5,050 have occurred in the last two weeks.
COVID-19 | A.P. strain at least 15 times more virulent - The Hindu —The new variant has shorter incubation period and the progress of the disease is much rapidWhile it is too early to state whether the new coronavirus variant discovered by CCMB (Centre for Cellular and Molecular Biology) N440K, is the variant that is creating havoc in Visakhapatnam and other parts of the State, experts say the new prevalent variant, which is being called as the AP variant as it was first discovered in Kurnool, is at least 15 times more virulent than the earlier ones, and may be even stronger than the Indian variants of B1.617 and B1.618.Divya Tej Sowpati, scientist at the Centre for Cellular and Molecular Biology, Hyderabad, and who closely works with genome sequencing of coronavirus said that the variant was closely related to the coronavirus lineage B.1.36 and had previously been linked to a spike in cases in several states of South India. "The defining mutation is N440K, a mutation that was known since last year and widely prevalent in Andhra Pradesh. When tested in cell culture studies, they appeared to spread quite quickly but that's not how it always plays out in the real world," he said in a phone conversation.“N440K is slowly dying out and was fast being replaced by two other variants — B.1.1.7 and B.1.617 in almost all southern states including Kerala,” said Vinod Scaria, scientist at the CSIR-Institute of Genomics and Integrative Biology, New Delhi. The N440K had been associated with cases of reinfection in Delhi and possibly helped the coronavirus bind tighter to lung cells. B.1.1.7 and B.1.617 are the 'UK Variant' and the Indian variant, also known as the 'double mutant.' “We are still to ascertain, which strain is in circulation right now, as samples have been sent to CCMB for analysis. But one thing is certain that the variant at present which is in circulation in Visakhapatnam is quite different from what we have seen during the first wave last year,” said District Collector V. Vinay Chand, who has been updated by senior doctors in the health department.
Fears of 'double-mutant' Covid strain after two cases in Sydney -- There are fears a 'double-mutant' coronavirus strain has leaked into the communitydespite NSW reporting zero new cases on Friday.The promising result comes after Premier Gladys Berejiklian said on Thursday a woman tested positive for the virus after it was revealed a day before her husband, a man in his 50s, also returned a positive result. Chief Health Officer Dr Kerry Chant said the two tested positive for the B.1.617 mutation, according to the Sydney Morning Herald.Despite the promising number of cases on Friday, there are fears the strain could still be circulating in the community as there is a missing link between the man and the original source which was traced to an overseas traveller in a quarantine facility. University of Sydney virologist Megan Steain told The Sydney Morning Herald the strain could potentially be transmitted at a more rapid rate than past strains.There are fears a double mutant strain has been leaked into the NSW community. Source: Getty"The rate at which (the variant) seems to be spreading in India suggests that it may be transmitted more efficiently than earlier variants of the virus," she said."Quickly performing contact tracing, testing and isolating people potentially exposed individuals will also be key to preventing spread in the community."
Singapore soft-pedals reopening amid new outbreak – A small but growing number of Covid-19 cases linked to India’s highly contagious virus variant has rattled Singapore, forcing the government to tighten social distancing measures and step up border curbs that could delay the opening of a travel bubble with Hong Kong and postpone planned major in-person events. Initially set to launch on May 26 after a previous delay due to rising cases in Hong Kong, Singapore has said it will “review” the travel bubble scheme. It’s not clear if new, longer quarantine requirements will scupper other planned conferences and events, including the Shangri La Dialogue, that aim to showcase the city-state as a safe and resilient business hub. At least 40 new cases have been linked to a cluster at one of Singapore’s biggest hospitals after a fully vaccinated 46-year-old nurse working there tested positive for Covid-19 on April 28. The case marked Singapore’s first-ever cluster at a hospital and is now the largest of nine active clusters. At least 10 of the recent cases have been linked to India’s B1617 variant, underscoring the mounting risks posed by viral mutations that could prove to be more transmissible and more vaccine-resistant than earlier strains of the coronavirus. Ten unlinked community cases have also been reported over the last week. “The new variant strains have higher attack rates, they are more infectious, they are causing larger clusters than before,” said Lawrence Wong, education minister and co-chair of Singapore’s multi-ministry task force on Covid-19, at a press briefing on May 4 that announced more stringent quarantine measures and limits on social gatherings. Inbound travelers arriving in Singapore from so-called higher-risk countries and regions – all places except Australia, Brunei, mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, New Zealand, and Taiwan – will have to serve 21 days of quarantine at dedicated facilities from May 8, up from the current requirement of 14 days. This comes after Singapore barred visitors from India, which is battling a deadly second wave that has seen the world’s biggest surge in daily coronavirus infections. The entry ban was expanded further to those with a recent travel history to Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, due to rises in Covid-19 cases in South Asia.
Deadly Nigerian COVID strain spreading fastest in Kent with 'clusters of linked cases' - Government data shows a new and potentially more deadly strain of coronavirus is spreading in Kent faster than anywhere else.A new variant known as B1525 and believed to have originated in Nigeria was detected in our area for the first time several weeks ago.Public Health England has found it has killed 3.6 per cent of people infected with it in this country so far.That compares to 2.3 per cent killed by the now dominant new strain widely known as the Kent variant, which itself is thought to be more deadly than the original strain.The Nigerian strain also carries the feared mutation known as E484K, thought to help it evade antibodies and potentially making vaccines less effective.The 388 cases recorded are enough to make it the third most numerous variant in the UK, behind only the dominant Kent strain and the South African strain (737 cases).New modelling from Public Health England also suggests it is spreading fastest in Kent.Out of 65 new cases recorded between April 1 and April 22, almost a third (19) came from people living in the South East region.And in its latest technical briefing on variants, Public Health England produced a map showing geographical spread of B1525 "excluding cases that have travelled" - in other words places where community transmission is taking place.
Rise in tuberculosis in Peru: A byproduct of the COVID-19 pandemic - In an article titled, “An Unexpected Pandemic Side Effect in Peru: A Comeback For TB,” NPR (National Public Radio) gives a sobering account of the rise of tuberculosis (TB) in Peru and much of the developing world because of the COVID-19 pandemic. In Peru, in 2019, the nonprofit health care organization Partners in Health (PIH) began a screening program called TB Móvil, which brings TB testing to the community via two vans equipped with X-ray machines that use Artificial Intelligence (AI) software to diagnose TB quickly and accurately. The vans are operational in the three northernmost districts of Peru’s capital, Lima. Martin Valencia Garcia, a community agent of TB Móvil, noticed that after the onset of COVID-19, patients likely stopped seeking further tests and treatment. Speaking of a 52-year-old patient who was in his care before COVID-19 but has since lost touch with him, Garcia remarked, “He could not do the exams, and since he couldn’t do the exams, he couldn’t be diagnosed, and he couldn’t receive treatment.” Under disruptions caused by COVID-19, Luz Villa-Castillo, a study coordinator at Cayetano Heredia University in Lima, pointed to the masking of a rising tuberculosis caseload as fewer patients sought diagnostic testing and received inconsistent treatment. Villa-Castillo suspects many milder strains of TB may “have likely become resistant.” At the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in March 2020, Peru, like most countries across the globe, went into partial lockdown with restrictions on movement and commerce. While lives were certainly saved, job losses were extensive, leading to more than six million people left unemployed by the second quarter of 2020, with many jobs permanently destroyed. The stresses of economic devastation coupled with a lack of transportation also meant that many patients with multiple drug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) most likely stopped seeking treatment and were lost to followup evaluation and care. Worldwide, TB is one of the top 10 causes of death and the leading cause from a single infectious agent. The World Health Organization (WHO) states that a total of 1.4 million people died from TB in 2019 (including 208,000 people who also had HIV). The infectious disease is caused by the bacterium Mycobacterium tuberculosis, which usually affects the lungs, causing the signature bloody coughs. Most infections, however, are described as latent TB, producing no symptoms, and the person is considered not contagious. The primary risk is that about 10 percent of these individuals will go on to develop the active disease. The risk is as high as 5 percent in the first two years, climbing at a rate of 0.1 percent per year afterwards. The elderly or those with compromised immune systems, such as people living with HIV, malnutrition or diabetes, or people who use tobacco, have a higher risk of falling ill with active TB. TB is considered a poor man’s disease, with 95 percent of cases and deaths appearing in developing countries. In 2019, out of the estimated 10 million people who fell ill with TB worldwide, 2.2 million cases were attributed to undernutrition. Another 1.4 million cases were attributable to alcohol use disorder and smoking, practices that continue to exist disproportionately in poorer sections of global communities.
How most of the West got the pandemic so badly wrong? --It takes a lot to shock me nowadays, but the failure of most OECD countries over this pandemic I do find shocking. Not in the case of the UK under Johnson, the US under Trump, Brazil under Bolsonaro or India under Modi, as the reasons for their failures are all too obvious. After all Johnson had the idea before the pandemic that the UK should be the one country to opt out of restricting the economy to save lives, and that this would give the UK some big global economic advantage. Only when the implied National Health Sservice chaos was explained to him did he change his mind. What I find shocking is the failure of mainland Europe almost without exception A few countries did completely understand what they needed to do, which was to follow an elimination strategy. If you are still not convinced of the wisdom of this strategy, a recent article * in the Lancet should help. It compares the small number of OECD countries (Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, Iceland and Japan) that did undertake an elimination strategy (sometimes called zero-COVID) with most of the other OECD countries that did not. Here is the first chart from that study: Quite simply the elimination strategy is infinitely better at avoiding COVID deaths. It is infinitely better at avoiding cases of long-COVID. It is also better for the economy as the chart below from that study shows (the red line represents the elimination countries): Elimination countries saw a smaller fall in GDP, and a faster recovery at the end of 2020 and so far in 2021. The big lie perpetuated in the majority of OECD countries that failed to go for elimination is that there was a health/economy trade-off. As this table shows that is not true, and as I argued quite soon after the pandemic hit we knew it was not true. The reason it is not true is very simple: if you fail to lockdown hard and early to eliminate the virus, it will carry on growing exponentially either forcing a much longer and stricter lockdown later on and/or people will just stay at home anyway which will have a huge impact on the economy. This is shown clearly in the final chart from the Lancet article: Were the countries that adopted elimination worse off in any way? As far as I can see in only one way: freedom of overseas travel. Elimination requires hotel quarantine or just travel bans to stop COVID cases coming in from abroad. Of course if more countries had adopted an elimination strategy, the less severe those travel restrictions would be because travel would often be possible between elimination countries.
New study finds air pollution may cloud older white men's thinking and memory - Nearly 1,000 older white men in the Greater Boston area may be evidence of the lasting damage air pollution can cause on the mind, according to the results of a new study. “This work confirms that there is a link between air pollution and how well the ageing brain works,” Andrea Baccarelli, a senior author on the study and professor at Columbia University, told The Guardian. “These shorter-term effects are reversible: when air pollution clears, our brain reboots and starts working back to its original level. However, multiple occurrences of these higher exposures cause permanent damage.” America is changing faster than ever! Add Changing America to your Facebook or Twitter feed to stay on top of the news. The study compared multiple cognitive test scores with local levels of airborne particles that are smaller than 2.5 micrometres across, known as PM2.5s, which can be discharged from road vehicles and other industrial polluters. Those who were exposed to higher levels of the pollutants scored worse — even when the levels were below national thresholds and recommendations from the World Health Organization. There may be reason to hope that this damage is preventable, according to the authors, who noted that short-term rises in pollution made less of an impact on the scores of men taking aspirin or other non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. Still, long term exposure to air pollution reveals yet another consequence of climate change. “Our findings do not suggest yet that all older people should be on anti-inflammatory drugs, because these are medications with side-effects we cannot take lightly,” Baccarelli told The Guardian. “More holistically, reducing inflammation through a healthy diet, such as more fruit, vegetables, and fibre, or having regular physical exercise, can go a long way not only to make us generally healthier but also to make us more resilient against environmental threats such as air pollution.”
Kentucky school buses are hazardous to kids' health, must be replaced (op ed by students) Imagine if our public schools were responsible for poisoning elementary school students on a regular basis. How would the community react if each day, giant metal contraptions spewing toxic fumes were placed directly outside the buildings where our children attend school. Imagine if this occurred as hundreds of 8-year olds emerged from the school building upon dismissal. Then imagine if half of those kids were then placed inside these contraptions, still inhaling toxic fumes, for an hour while they are transported home. This is the reality for hundreds of thousands of Kentucky public school students still subjected to the harmful environmental, health and cognitive effects of the iconic yellow school bus. Kentucky public schools’ 9,526 school buses transport approximately 360,000 students daily. Ninety-seven percent of those buses are powered by diesel and produce toxic exhaust that is harmful to students, educators and our communities. Exposure to air pollution similar to diesel exhaust has been linked to long-term chronic health conditions like asthma and hypertension and is especially harmful to elementary school students, whose faster breathing rates and developing lungs make them more susceptible to respiratory illness. These toxins’ impact is most acute for students in urban and rural communities who spend the longest amount of timeon the bus inhaling toxic fumes.In addition to the physical health detriments of diesel emissions, many students also experience measurable cognitive decline. Long- and short-term exposure to toxic air pollution like diesel fuel emissions negatively impacts cognitive functioning and increases one's risk of dementia. A recent Georgia study found that the cognitive and attendance benefits of reducing school bus emissions improves academic performance. The academic performance boost in English was the equivalent of going from a first-year rookie educator to one with five years of experience.
Mysterious situation in Coconut Grove as thousands of expensive fish suddenly die outside several homes - – A real fishy mystery in Coconut Grove after thousands of pricy koi fish have turned up dead over the past couple weeks in several homes. The impacted homeowners are devastated, and heart broken. We’re not talking about a couple of fish or even hundreds of fish, we’re talking about thousands of fish that, all of a sudden, have turned up dead. The scary thing is that the issue has been repeating itself at different homes here Coconut Grove over the past several weeks, and everyone wants to know why. “They just all don’t die at once like that,” Jen Wheeler is the owner of Pond Doctors. She services fish ponds all over South Florida. In the past two weeks she’s responded to five homes, four in this same Coconut Grove neighborhood, that have all experienced similar devastating fish kills. Thousands of fish have turned up dead from one day to the next, all in the same area. “To have them suddenly pass away for some unknown reason is really scary because you also start to think what else is this affecting,” Wheeler said. “Other than the fish that we are in love with.” It’s more than fish, too. Birds, plants and even mammals have been turning up dead; at least two wild racoons have also died, all in the same neighborhood. “It came up right up the driveway and turned on its side,” Marks said. “It looked like it might be playful, but it was convulsing and just died.” Wheeler said the oxygen levels in all the ponds she serviced was normal. “To have so many animals affected by this, something is going on,” she said. She even called the only mosquito company authorized by Miami-Dade County to control infestations, and the issue wasn’t them either. “They had not been spraying aerially since 2017 and had not used their trucks anywhere where we’re having problems,” Wheeler said. Dead fish also turned up at the pond at Miami’s Simpson Park. The common denominator is that all the ponds source their water from wells connected to the aquifer. “We’re still trying to figure out what’s in the ground water and what is causing it,” Wheeler said.
Locust swarms from Middle East may reach Turkey, expert warns Swarms of locusts that invaded the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Jordan, Israel, Lebanon, and Syria, may reach Turkey next if the country does not take action, an expert warned on April 30, 2021. As of May 3, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said unusually strong southerly winds carried mature adult swarms to the Middle East countries and nearly reached Turkey. Professor Ali Satar, head of the zoology department of Dicle University in southeastern Turkey's Diyarbakır, told Demirören News Agency (DHA) that it is important to take sufficient action against locusts due to changes in weather events. Strong southerly winds in April carried groups of mature adults and small swarms from Saudi Arabia to Iraq, Jordan, Israel, Lebanon, and Syria, said FAO. The swarms nearly reached Turkey, while others turned up in the Sinai Peninsula. The spread of locusts to Iraq and Syria surprised experts as the normal route starts from Saudi Arabia and includes Iran, Pakistan, India, and China. Considering the unprecedented route, locust swarms could reach Turkey. "We do not think that desert locusts will come to Turkey. But of course, there is a small possibility. Desert locusts can reach millions at a time," he said. "The herd of locusts in Syria is said to be small. But we must always be alert."
Bugging out: EU approves beetle larvae as food -- More insects are on their way to dinner plates in Europe under an agreement between EU countries to label them "innovative food" that is safe to eat, the European Commission said Tuesday. The endorsement means the 27-nation bloc is close to adopting an EU law allowing residents and visitors to tuck into a dish featuring dried yellow mealworm, the larva of the mealworm beetle, Tenebrio molitor. "The use of insects as an alternate source of protein is not new and insects are regularly eaten in many parts of the world," the commission noted, announcing the decision. It added that yellow mealworm must be labelled clearly as such when used in a food product, not least to alert people who might be allergic. The insect can be used to make burgers, protein shakes and biscuits. The commission said there are currently 11 other applications for insects to become "novel food" in the EU and they will be considered by the European Food Safety Authority. The decision on yellow mealworms is expected to be formally adopted in coming weeks, the commission said. While it noted that this is the first time an insect was being authorised as food in the EU, the commission did say that insects had previously been available for consumption in some member states. But that was before a 2018 update to the EU regulation on novel foods that requires whole insects to be subject to approval. Researchers have for years observed the high protein value of yellow mealworms, which contain required fat and amino acids. The larva can grow quickly in a variety of substances including brewer's yeast, wheat bran, corn starch and potato flour. They have already long been found in food markets in Southeast Asian countries.
Pesticides Threaten the 'Foundations of the Web of Life,' New Soil Study Warns - - Researchers at the University of Maryland as well as the advocacy groups Friends of the Earth U.S. and the Center for Biological Diversity were behind what they say is "the largest, most comprehensive review of the impacts of agricultural pesticides on soil organisms ever conducted." The study's authors warn the analyzed pesticides pose a grave danger to invertebrates that are essential for biodiversity, healthy soil, and carbon sequestration to fight the climate emergency — and U.S. regulators aren't focused on these threats."Below the surface of fields covered with monoculture crops of corn and soybeans, pesticides are destroying the very foundations of the web of life," said study co-author Nathan Donley, a scientist at the Center for Biological Diversity, in a statement. "Study after study indicates the unchecked use of pesticides across hundreds of millions of acres each year is poisoning the organisms critical to maintaining healthy soils," Donley added. "Yet our regulators have been ignoring the harm to these important ecosystems for decades." As the paper details, the researchers reviewed nearly 400 studies "on the effects of pesticides on non-target invertebrates that have egg, larval, or immature development in the soil," including ants, beetles, ground-nesting bees, and earthworms. They looked at 275 unique species, taxa, or combined taxa of soil organisms and 284 different pesticide active ingredients or unique mixtures. "We found that 70.5% of tested parameters showed negative effects," the paper says, "whereas 1.4% and 28.1% of tested parameters showed positive or no significant effects from pesticide exposure, respectively." Donley told The Guardian that "the level of harm we're seeing is much greater than I thought it would be. Soils are incredibly important. But how pesticides can harm soil invertebrates gets a lot less coverage than pollinators, mammals, and birds — it's incredibly important that changes."
California Public Health Crisis Looms With 600 Communities Facing Water-System Failures --A familiar scene has returned to California: drought. Two counties are currently under emergency declarations, and the rest of the state could follow. It was only four years ago when a winter of torrential rain finally wrestled the state out of its last major drought, which had dragged on for five years and left thousands of domestic wells coughing up dust. That drinking-water crisis made national headlines and helped shine a light on another long-simmering water crisis in California: More than 300 communities have chronically unsafe drinking water containing contaminants that can come with serious health consequences, including cancer. The areas hardest hit are mostly small, agricultural communities in the San Joaquin and Salinas valleys, which are predominantly Latino and are often also places classified by the state as "disadvantaged." Unsafe water in these communities adds to a list of health and economic burdens made worse by the ongoing pandemic. The causes of the state's drinking water woes are varied — and worrisome. Nitrate, mostly from farms and dairies, is the costliest water contaminant, the study found. Nitrates are especially dangerous for infants, and can cause lethargy, dizziness and even death. Other groundwater contaminants include bacteria from leaking septic systems and uranium, which can cause kidney damage. Several other contaminants have been linked to cancers, including the industrial pollutant chromium-6, the pesticide 1,2,3-trichloropropane, and human-made and naturally-occurring sources of arsenic. Contamination is also widespread. The study looked at 2,779 public water systems across the state and evaluated their water quality, affordability, accessibility, and technical and financial capacity. It found that 326 public water systems qualified as "human right to water communities" — the ones where water systems are consistently failing to provide affordable, safe drinking water. For anyone tracking this issue (or living in these communities), that part wasn't news. But the report also found that another 617 public water systems are at risk of failing. Virtually every county in the state had at least one system on this list, but those with the highest numbers were in rural areas with large numbers of smaller water systems, including Tulare, Fresno, Monterey and Kern counties.
Nearly 10% of all wild California condors are wreaking havoc on one person’s home - Nearly 20 California condors decided to wreak havok on a woman's home in the town of Tehachapi, about 115 miles north of Los Angeles. Since the weekend, the endangered birds have "trashed her deck," according to the woman's daughter Seana Quintero, who has been tweeting about it. This includes tipping over a large plant and chair, tearing her spa cover, knocking over other items like lawn decorations, and pooping all over the place. The homeowner has tried shooing them away with a broom, but that doesn't faze the birds. When they're not "hanging out on her roof and railings messing with stuff," they stare "ominously" at her from nearby trees. Only about 200 California condors exist in the wild, according toSFChronicle, with 10% of them now squatting at the Tehachapi home. "She's definitely frustrated," Quintero told the Chronicle, speaking about her mom, "but also is in awe of this and knows what an unusual experience this is." From AP: The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, which runs a program to save the species from extinction, responded on Twitter. The agency noted that the house is in historic condor habitat, and suggested that Mickols try harmless hazing like shouting and clapping or spraying water.California condors almost vanished in the 1980s before the few remaining birds were captured and placed in zoos for captive breeding. A few hundred birds are now in the wild.
Trump weakened an iconic law that protects birds. Biden just moved to restore it. - Months after the Trump administration weakened the Migratory Bird Treaty Act, allowing industry and individuals to unintentionally kill any number of birds, the Biden administration proposed a new rule Thursday that would revoke that change. The proposal announced by the Interior Department would restore protections under the 102-year-old law that governed incidental take, or accidental killings of birds by people and organizations such as oil and gas companies that fail to take proper precautions to not harm the animals. “The Migratory Bird Treaty Act is a bedrock environmental law that is critical to protecting migratory birds and restoring declining bird populations,” Interior Secretary Deb Haaland said in a statement. “Today’s actions will serve to better align Interior with its mission and ensure that our decisions are guided by the best-available science.” Days before President Donald Trump left the White House, Interior finalized a rule on Jan. 7 that it had sought to enact for four years. Based on a U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service solicitor’s opinion, the department said accidents resulting in bird deaths are not prohibited by the act. For example, it said, a person who destroys a structure such as a barn full of baby owls in nests is not liable for killing them. It ordered wildlife police to ignore what had been a crime. Even catastrophic events such as the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico off Louisiana that destroyed or injured up to 1 million birds could not be punished. In the past, “the department has pursued MBTA claims against companies responsible for oil spills that incidentally killed or injured migratory birds. That avenue is no longer available,” the Trump administration said. Oil companies were the greatest beneficiaries of the Trump interpretation, according to an analysis by the Audubon Society. They were responsible for 90 percent of incidental takes prosecuted under the act, resulting in fines of $6,500 per violation. Two disastrous oil spills, Deepwater Horizon in 2010 and the Exxon Valdez oil tanker wreck off Alaska in 1989, accounted for 97 percent of the fines, according to the Audubon Society.
Biden administration details plans to conserve 30% of US land and water by 2030 -- The Biden administration on Thursday outlined in a new report how it aims to achieve its goal of conserving achieve its goal of conserving 30% of America's lands and waters by 2030. Developed by the Departments of the Interior, Agriculture and Commerce, as well as the White House Council on Environmental Quality, the report lays out initial recommendations for a decade-long initiative -- described as the "America the Beautiful" campaign -- to encourage local conservation efforts. "The President's challenge is a call to action to support locally led conservation and restoration efforts of all kinds and all over America, wherever communities wish to safeguard the lands and waters they know and love," the agencies' top officials write in the report. "Doing so will not only protect our lands and waters but also boost our economy and support jobs nationwide." Thursday's announcement follows President Joe Biden's climate executive order issued in late January, which instructed the federal agencies to submit a report to the National Climate Task Force with recommendations for achieving the goal of "conserving at least 30% of our lands and waters by 2030." Much of the report focuses on promoting local and voluntary conservation efforts. The 30 by 30 goal "reflects the need to support conservation and restoration efforts across all lands and waters, not solely on public lands, including by incentivizing voluntary stewardship efforts on private lands and by supporting the efforts and visions of States and Tribal Nations," the agencies write. The report also acknowledges that there were "divergent perspectives" from some stakeholders, including over how to define "conservation" and how to measure the success of these efforts. "There is no single database that could capture the texture and nuance of the economic and social values of every restoration or conservation action," the report later explains, noting that in listening sessions, "the question of what should 'count' came up regularly." In light of these concerns, the report recommends two main mechanisms for measuring conservation progress -- one in the form of a new interagency working group to track conservation information and develop metrics for success, and the other in the publication of annual "America the Beautiful" updates.
Chemical Impact: Microplastic pollution more complex than we think, says new research -- Microplastic pollution has been building up in the Great Lakes for at least four decades, but our understanding of its impact on fish and other aquatic creatures is only just catching up. Now new research from the University of Toronto shows the harm to wildlife is due to a wide range of factors that is not generally considered in toxicology testing – the plastics’ size, shape and chemical makeup. In particular, it shows larval fathead minnows exposed to microplastics collected from Lake Ontario developed almost six times more deformities compared to when they were exposed ‘pristine’ pre-consumer microplastics. This suggests microplastics in the lake soak up contaminants in the water and that it is these chemicals that are causing deformities. The study’s authors argue researchers and policymakers need to stop seeing microplastics as a single contaminant, but rather understand they are multiple contaminants in one tiny package. Plastic particles are generally considered microplastics when they are 5 millimeters (0.2 inch) or smaller. They are often the result of the breakdown of water bottles, plastic bags or other things that started out larger. Clothing made of fleece or nylon can also shed microplastic fibers when washed, and those go down the drain and into the environment. According to the United States Geological Survey, there are 112,000 particles of microplastics per square mile of Great Lakes water.Kennedy Bucci, the University of Toronto PhD student who led the study, says the most significant failing of most microplastic testing is that it doesn’t examine the impact of chemicals that hitch a ride on the particles after they end up in the water. Microplastics act like a chemical sponge, soaking up contaminants such as persistent organic pollutants and heavy metals. For example, researchers have found pesticides and other toxic compounds in plastics floating in water, and those plastics have in turn been found in the bellies of fish in the Great Lakes. “But most lab testing is done with pre-consumer microplastics,” said Bucci. “They’re easy to buy – they come in the mail.” These pre-consumer microplastics are usually polyethylene or polypropylene and are used to make products such as shopping bags, food wrap, detergent bottles and even auto parts. While lab testing of pre-consumer microplastics has helped raise flags, results have offered conflicting evidence. Some show harmful effects to fish – liver stress, changes to gene expression and decreased metabolism – while others show no effect. “The inconsistencies between studies in terms of whether or not an effect is detected are likely the consequence of ignoring the complexity and context of microplastics as an environmental contaminant,”
We're All Ingesting Microplastics at Home; Here's How to Reduce Your Risk -Australians are eating and inhaling significant numbers of tiny plastics at home, our new research shows.These “microplastics," which are derived from petrochemicals extracted from oil and gas products, are settling in dust around the house.Some of these particles are toxic to humans — they can carry carcinogenic or mutagenic chemicals, meaning they potentially cause cancer and/or damage our DNA.We still don't know the true impact of these microplastics on human health. But the good news is, having hard floors, using more natural fibers in clothing, furnishings and homewares, along with vacuuming at least weekly can reduce your exposure.Microplastics are plastic particles less than five millimeters across. They come from a range of household and everyday items such as the clothes we wear, home furnishings, and food and beverage packaging.We know microplastics are pervasive outdoors, reaching remote and inaccessible locations such as theArctic, the Mariana Trench (the world's deepest ocean trench), and the Italian Alps.Our study demonstrates it's an inescapable reality that we're living in a sea of microplastics — they're in our food and drinks, our oceans, and our homes.We found 39% of the deposited dust particles were microplastics; 42% were natural fibers such as cotton, hair and wool; and 18% were transformed natural-based fibers such as viscose and cellophane. The remaining 1% were film and fragments consisting of various materials.Between 22 and 6,169 microfibers were deposited as dust per square meter, each day.Homes with carpet as the main floor covering had nearly double the number of petrochemical-based fibers (including polyethylene, polyamide and polyacrylic) than homes without carpeted floors.Conversely, polyvinyl fibers (synthetic fibers made of vinyl chloride) were two times more prevalent in homes without carpet. This is because the coating applied to hard flooring degrades over time, producing polyvinyl fibers in house dust.Microplastics can carry a range of contaminants such as trace metals and some potentially harmful organic chemicals.These chemicals can leach from the plastic surface once in the body, increasing the potential for toxic effects. Microplastics can have carcinogenic properties, meaning they potentially cause cancer. They can also be mutagenic, meaning they can damage DNA.However, even though some of the microplastics measured in our study are composed of potentiallycarcinogenic and/or mutagenic compounds, the actual risk to human health is unclear.
April was sunniest on record – but also one of the coldest, says Met Office -- Last month saw Scotland breaking its sunshine record for the second consecutive year with 211.5 hours, according to provisional Met Office figures.The total is 57 per cent higher than the long-term average but it was more than 70 per higher in the Glasgow area and parts of the Borders and Dumfries and Galloway.It compares to 204.6 hours in 2020, which had been the highest since records began in 1919.However, average minimum temperatures last month were among the five lowest for April since those records began in 1884.Across the UK, it was the lowest for April since 1922 and the third lowest on record.The Met Office said average daily maximum temperatures were also below normal, but not by as much as the minimum temperatures.It said April saw the highest level of air frost for 60 years amid conditions more typical for December to February. As gardeners will have noticed to their frustration, there were also a record high number of ground frosts across the UK, with 22 days in April compared to an average of 12 days.Mike Kendon, senior scientist at the Met Office’s national climate information centre, said: “April has been an incredibly notable month in terms of the statistics."Despite temperatures remaining stubbornly low in many areas, long days of sunshine was the norm and well ahead of averages, especially in northern England, Wales and Scotland.“A long, prolonged spell of dry and settled conditions was only interrupted by a wet few days in western Scotland in the first half of the month."Cold nights have been the norm across the UK, especially in northern England and Scotland, with the lowest reading coming in at –9.4C at Tulloch Bridge on April 12.“Areas of high pressure have become established over or around the UK, feeding in cold conditions and creating clear nights, allowing any heat to escape. "The high pressure has tended to prevent April shower activity that we might more typically expect to see at this time of year.
UK records coldest April since 1922 and frostiest since 1960 --The Met Office has confirmed that last month was the UK's coldest April since 1922. The chilly weather was accompanied by air and ground frosts, making the country record its frostiest April since 1960 when precise record-keeping began. Despite the cold and frosts, much of the country also basked in their sunniest April on record. April 2021 had the UK's lowest average minimum temperatures in 99 years. Frots and clear conditions combined for a chilly month, said the Met Ofice. Since records began in 1884, April 2021 had the third-lowest average UK minimum temperature for the month, early provisional figures from the National Climate Information Center (NCIC) shows. Average daily maximum temperatures fell below normal, but not by as much as the minimum. The country also saw its frostiest April last month with an average of 13 days of air frosts. This had topped the 11-day average set in April 1970. Last month's number of air frosts is more common for December, January, or February, as the average number of air frosts for April is only five days. The average number of ground frosts in April 2021 was 22 days, which was also a record-high, compared to the average of 12 days.
Unseasonal May snow falls in South Korea for the first time in 22 years - (video) Up to 18.5 cm (7.3 inches) of snow fell in parts of Gangwon Province, South Korea, from Saturday evening to Sunday morning, May 1 to 2, 2021. It was the first time in 22 years that it has snowed in South Korea in the month of May. The Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) reported that up to 18.5 cm (7.3 inches) of snow blanketed Gangwon over the weekend, which was unusual for the month of May when summer weather conditions are usually seen across the country. Areas surrounding the Taebaek mountain range saw light to heavy snow, while other cities and counties saw rain from Saturday night to early Sunday morning. Guryongryeong registered more than 18 cm (7 inches) of snow. Rainfall amount reached 61.6 mm (2.4 inches) for Jinbuyeong, 58.5 mm (2.3 inches) for Misiryeong, 49 mm (1.9 inches) for Sokcho, 38 mm (1.5 inches) for Yangyang, and 29 mm (1.1 inches) for Gangneung. According to local media, it was the first time in 22 years that it has snowed in South Korea in May.
Violent storm hits China's Jiangsu Province, claiming lives of 11 people and leaving 102 injured - A violent storm swept through east China's Jiangsu Province late Friday, April 30, 2021, claiming the lives of at least 11 people and leaving more than 100 injured. 9 people were missing as of Saturday, May 1.The worst affected were the cities of Nantong (population of 8 million), Huaian, Taizhou, and Suqian.Extremely strong winds of up to 165 km/h (102 mph) swept through the region destroying homes and cars, and downing trees and powerlines. The storm was accompanied by hail with a diameter of up to 3 cm (1.2 inches).By 20:00 LT on May 1, the extreme weather has affected 13 688 people in several cities in Jiangsu, causing a direct economic loss of over 16.4 million yuan (2.5 million USD).At least 1 700 ha (4 200 acres) of crops were damaged as well as 6 000 homes.According to local authorities, at least 11 people were killed and 102 injured -- either thrown into the Yangtze River or hit by falling trees, electricity poles, or debris. Jiangsu party secretary Lou Qinjian said a fishing boat with 11 people on board capsized. Two of them were rescued, but 9 others remain missing.More than 3 000 residents were evacuated.The storm also affected nearby cities such as Shaoxing and Hangzhou in Zhejiang Province.China's meteorological agency warned residents more extreme weather is expected in the days ahead.
Very heavy to extremely heavy rain expected across South Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya - Very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall is expected in parts of South Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya through May 11, according to ICPAC and national meteorological services in the region. Stakeholders are requested to alert their networks and take appropriate measures to safeguard lives and livelihoods. Very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall over 200 mm (7.9 inches) -- top 5 to 1% on record -- is expected in parts of central South Sudan (Al Wahdah, northern Jonglei, eastern Northern Bahr el Ghazal and Western Bahr el Ghazal), southern and eastern Ethiopia (Dire Dawa, Harar Jijiga and Degehabur), parts of central Somalia (Madug and Galguduug), and western Kenya (Nakuru, Kericho, Bomet and Narok). Moderate to heavy rainfall between 50 - 200 mm (2 - 7.9 inches) is expected in western Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, much of Uganda, South Sudan, much of Ethiopia, central and northern Somalia, and parts of southern Sudan. Light rainfall of less than 30 mm (1.2 inches) is expected in southern Sudan, parts of eastern Uganda, much of Tanzania, parts of eastern Kenya, south-western and north-eastern Somalia.
Severe flooding hits Yemen, leaving at least 13 people dead - (videos) At least 13 people have been killed after heavy seasonal rain hit Yemen on Saturday, May 1, 2021, resulting in fatalities and damage. The authorities are warning residents to stay away from flood ducts in affected areas and take necessary precautions.Yemeni security officials confirmed 13 fatalities in the Governorates of Sanaa, Ibb, Shabwa, and Hodeida.Aden, Taiz, and Hadramout Governorates have also been affected. Floodwaters there have damaged a number of houses, roads, and vehicles."Today we were exposed to heavy rain, the houses collapsed, our belongings were lost, the bed was also damaged," said Muhammad Salem, a man living in the Aden camp.Residents of a camp in the Yemeni city of Aden are struggling to save what's left of their belongings after the country's cities were battered by floods, causing the death of at least 13 people including two children.Moderate to locally heavy rain is forecast over western and central-eastern Yemen on Monday and Tuesday, May 3 and 4.The rainy season in Yemen lasts from April through August.
Widespread flooding hits Afghanistan, leaving 22 people dead, 10 missing - At least 22 people have lost their lives as widespread flooding hit Afghanistan over the past couple of days, the country's disaster management authority (ANDMA) reported Tuesday, May 4, 2021. More than 200 homes have been damaged or destroyed, as well as wide swaths of farmland. 10 people are still missing.Heavy rains from Sunday, May 2, caused flooding that affected several provinces of the country, including Badakhshan, Daikundi, Bamyan, Khost, Samangan, Baghlan, Maidan Wardak, Ghor, and Herat. Preliminary reports show that at least 44 homes have been destroyed and 197 have been damaged. Wide swaths of orchards and farmlands have also been affected.ANDMA reported at least 22 fatalities, all of them in the province of Herat, while 10 people are missing in nine provinces. Hundreds of livestock have also been killed in the floods.The disaster management has started relief efforts in the affected areas, while search and operations are ongoing to locate the missing victims.The Afghan Meteorological Department expects severe weather until Wednesday, May 5. Warnings for heavy rain, thunderstorm, and flash floods remain in place, particularly for the northern and central provinces.
Severe floods hit Algeria, leaving substantial infrastructural damage and 7 people dead --Widespread floods and flash floods triggered by heavy rain hit Algeria on May 2 and 3, 2021, leaving at least 7 people dead and substantial infrastructural damage. In Beni-Slimane municipality, Medea Province, floods damaged a medical building, destroyed or damaged dozens of vehicles, and left 4 people dead on May 3. Severe floods hit Batna Province on May 2, cutting several roads and sweeping away two people in Amdoukal municipality. One person was killed in M'sila Province, municipality of Daira di Magra. In Ain Kadra municipality, Civil Protection rescued numerous residents. On May 5 and 6, moderate to heavy rain is forecast over most parts of central and northern Algeria.
Large landslide partially blocks Medellin River in NW Colombia = A large landslide occurred at the La Granja landfill site in La Primavera, Antioquia in Colombia on May 3, 2021, partially blocking the Medellin River. The general director of the Administrative Department of Risk Management of Antioquia (DAGRAN) said a team visited the area and made several recommendations to both the property owners and the municipality to mitigate the risk. At this time, the river continues its course and DAGRAN is working on setting up 24/7 monitoring until it returns to normal. The trigger for the landslide appears to have been a spell of heavy rainfall, although erosion of the toe by the channel cannot be eliminated, Dr. Dave Petley of The Landslide Blog said in an analysis. The landslide appears to be a slump -- not at all unusual in landfill materials -- fortunately without a high level of mobilization. DAGRAN has recorded 56 landslide events since the rainy season began in March. In the same period of 2020, it recorded just four such events. "I wonder if this is associated with the current La Nina conditions," Petley said. Severe weather events are expected to continue with greater intensity in the month of May, Colombian Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (IDEAM) said.
Siberia Is on Fire—and It’s Only May --It looks like wildfires in Siberia are starting up again—and some fires that never went out after last summer are starting to poke their heads out of the snow. Last week, authorities put Novobirsk’s 1.7 million residents under what’s known as a “black sky” air quality warning as smoke from nearby wildfires blanketed the city. In late April, the Siberian Times reported that 27 houses were destroyed in the city of Kemerovo and 50 in Russia’s third-largest city of Novosibirsk, with more destruction in other surrounding districts. As summer approaches, fires in Siberia like these are showing no signs of slowing down—and are sparking in even colder areas north. Images gathered by the Copernicus Sentinel-2 satellites on Sunday and posted to Twitter by the EU’s Directorate-General for Defence Industry and Space account show a group of wildfires clustered near Oymyakon, a rural area known for being one of the coldest places on Earth. Other satellite images grabbed from Copernicus Sentinel data show fire hotspots igniting among snow-capped landscapes.You can probably guess that Siberia—especially regions around the Arctic Circle—really isn’t supposed to burn this much. But temperatures in Siberia broke all sorts of records last summer, and scientific analyses have found that the heat in the area was made 600 times (!) more likely due to climate change. The fires that burned in the Arctic last year released a record amount of carbon dioxide that was equivalent to the entire annual emissions of Spain, creating a dangerous feedback loop. Balmy temperatures in the region continued into the winter: The island of Svalbard in Norway’s Arctic region hit its highest-ever temperature for November last year, registering 49 degrees Fahrenheit (9.4 degrees Celsius), which would be warm for November even where I am in New York. Temperatures in the high Arctic averaged 11.9 degrees Fahrenheit (6.6 degrees Celsius) above normal this winter, according to data collected by NASA. (In NASA’s case, it defines normal as the period from 1951 to 1980.)A number of fires in recent years have ignited and spread in areas with peat, a carbon-rich soil that can release its stores into the atmosphere when burned. All this new peat-based fire activity is linked to some very weird phenomena—namely what’s known as zombie fires. Peat fires can continue to smoulder underground for long periods of time, using up the carbon in the soil until they can reach the surface again. Experts have speculated that these fires could reignite into bigger blazes in warmer months.
California’s Wildfire Season Is Off to an Early Start -- For the first time since 2014, parts of Northern California are seeing a May "red flag" fire warning due to dry and windy conditions. "It's crazy, May and a red-flag warning," Craig Clements, San Jose State University Wildfire Interdisciplinary Research Center director, told The Mercury News. The warning coverage area extends from Redding in the north to Modesto in the south, and includes portions of the Central Valley and the state capital of Sacramento. The warning also extends to the eastern edges of the Bay Area, The Mercury News reported. The warning, first announced Sunday, is expected to last through 5 p.m. PT Tuesday afternoon. "Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly," National Weather Service (NWS) Sacramento cautioned. "Outdoor burning is not recommended." Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday are also predicted to be 15 degrees above average in the Bay Area and Northern California, SFGate reported. In fact, the area has already experienced some blazes. A wildfire broke out in Big Basin Redwoods State Park on Sunday around noon. Firefighters were able to contain it to 6.7 acres by Sunday night. Small fires also ignited in the Bay Area's Solano County and Pittsburg, The Mercury News reported. Fire season in California usually starts in summer and extends through the fall, according to The Guardian. However, the climate crisis has upended weather patterns in the state, which is now suffering from droughtconditions. Much of California, including the north, is experiencing its driest wet season in more than 40 years; Sacramento experienced its driest on record in April, NWS said. The dry conditions exacerbate fires for two reasons, according to The Mercury News. There is no water to put out early flames, and dry weather speeds up the process of curing. Curing occurs when vegetation dries out to the point where its moisture content is impacted by the dryness of the atmosphere, not the soil.
Giant sequoia still smoldering from 2020 California wildfire (AP) — A giant sequoia has been found smoldering and smoking in a part of Sequoia National Park that burned in one of California’s huge wildfires last year, the National Park Service said Wednesday. “The fact areas are still smoldering and smoking from the 2020 Castle Fire demonstrates how dry the park is,” said Leif Mathiesen, assistant fire management officer for Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks in central California. “With the low amount of snowfall and rain this year, there may be additional discoveries as spring transitions into summer.” The smoldering tree was found recently by scientists and fire crews surveying the effects of the blaze, which was ignited by lightning last August and spread over more than 270 square miles (699 square kilometers) of the Sierra Nevada. It took five months to fully contain. Most of California is deep in drought, with severe to extreme conditions in the mountain range that provides about a third of the state’s water. On April 1, when the Sierra Nevada snowpack is normally at its peak, its water content was just 59% of average, according to the state Department of Water Resources. The dryness could set the stage for a repeat of last year, when wildfires, many of them ignited by thousands of dry lightning strikes, burned a record 6,562 square miles (16,996 square kilometers) in the nation’s most populated state. With drought conditions dire across the American West, AccuWeather predicted an above-average 2021 wildfire season in a forecast released Wednesday. According to AccuWeather senior meteorologist Dave Samuhel, fires are projected to burn 14,844 square miles (38,445 square kilometers) of land across the Western U.S. “Unfortunately, in a nutshell, it looks like it’s going to be another busy season,” he said in a statement. “We’re seeing a lot of drought. Almost half of the country is experiencing drought, and the bulk of that is to the West.” A possible exception could be Southern California, where lack of rain has stunted spring growth that would eventually dry out and can become fuel for fires. “Since it was a dry winter there, that means there wasn’t a lot of new grass that grew,” Samuhel said. “So that could reduce the wildfire threat a little bit, at least in that area.”
45,000 apply for 12 spots to shoot Grand Canyon bison -More than 45,000 people applied for the chance to shoot bison at the Grand Canyon, as part of an initiative by the National Park Service (NPS) to the limit the population of the animal, whose growing numbers are negatively impacting resources in the area. The agency invited skilled shooters to enter a lottery to win one of a dozen spots to kill bison at the North Rim of the Grand Canyon. The NPS authorized the removal of bison at the Grand Canyon because according to the agency, the fast growing population has been grazing and trampling on water, vegetation, soils and archaeological sites. Additionally, the animals are harming visitor experience and wilderness character, the agency says. Potential volunteers had 48 hours to enter the lottery, from Monday to Tuesday. According to The Associated Press, the NPS received 45,040 applications. About 15 percent of the applicants were Arizona residents, and one-third were from Texas, California, Colorado and Utah, the AP reported, citing Larry Phoenix, a regional supervisor for the Arizona Game and Fish Department. The department will choose 25 applicants through the lottery, screen them and then send finalists to the NPS. The first dozen finalists who send a packet of requested information to the park service will win a spot for the rare opportunity, according to the wire service, citing Grand Canyon spokeswoman Kaitlyn Thomas.
New NOAA climate 'normals' warmer than ever -- The average temperatures in the contiguous U.S. over the past three decades, or “climate normals,” reached a record high, according to aWashington Post analysis of data released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.From 1991 to 2020, the 30-year average was 53.28 degrees Fahrenheit for the 48 contiguous U.S. states, a record high. The country has warmed 1.7 degrees, roughly the same as the global rate, since 1901-1930, the first three-decade period for which climate normals were recorded.NOAA data indicated climate normals increased 0.46 degrees from the 30-year period between 1981 and 2010 to the period between 1991 and 2020. This is the second-highest increase on record for the country, after the 0.5-degree increase between 1971 and 2000, and 1981 and 2010, according to the Post.Normals are used for a variety of applications, including utility rate-setting, agricultural planning and in some cases simply for forecasters to compare specific dates to their historical averages.“What we’re trying to do with climate normals is to put today’s weather in a proper context so we understand whether we’re above normal or below normal and also we’re trying to understand today’s climate so people know what to expect,” Michael Palecki, who manages NOAA updates to the data, told the Post.During the same three-decade period, precipitation also increased, according to the data, going from a national average of 30.97 inches from 1981-2010 to 31.31 inches from 1991-2020. Much of that increase was specifically in the eastern U.S., while the overall trend was dryer in the southwestern U.S. “‘It varies’ is the main message of the maps showing how the normal annual precipitation across the country has changed. Precipitation — regardless of human-caused climate change — varies a lot from place to place across the United States,” Rebecca Lindsay wrote at Climate.gov in April. “Few places exhibit a precipitation trend that is either steadily wetter or steadily drier than the 20th-century average. Instead, drier areas and wetter areas shift back and forth without an obvious pattern.”
Tornado outbreak leaves trail of damage across Mississippi - Nearly 100,000 Mississippi residents were under a tornado emergency on Sunday night, including the city of Tupelo, as a confirmed large and destructive tornado tore through the region. Left in the wake of the night's weather was damage strewn across three communities, inflicting destruction on buildings and downing power lines. Drone footage captured by Brian Emfinger of Live Storms Media gave unparalleled footage of the massive twister working its way over Yazoo City, Mississippi. The power of the tornado's inflow cut the connection between the drone and Emfinger's control, as he lost the device shortly after recording the powerful scene.Shortly before 10 p.m. CDT, the National Weather Service (NWS) issued a dire warning for the city of Tupelo, calling the situation particularly dangerous and life threatening as a confirmed tornado charged toward the city.A tornado emergency can be issued when a large, destructive tornado has been on the ground for an extended period of time and is approaching a populated area."At 9:52 p.m. CDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was observed over Tupelo, moving northeast at 45 mph. TORNADO EMERGENCY for Tupelo. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW," the NWS warning said. Local law enforcement has reported extensive residential damage around the Elvis Presley Museum Area in Tupelo, along with downed trees and power lines. Tupelo is the birthplace of Elvis Presley.Around the Highway 151 area of town, local media reported a roof was torn off an apartment building.The city of Tupelo's Mayor's Office released a statement on Facebook on Sunday night, stating that damage had been reported throughout the city."Emergency crews are currently assessing the degree of damage. Please do not get out and drive. It is dangerous--there are reports that power lines are down on the roads. We will update you as soon as we know the extent of damage. Prayers that all are safe, and please keep our crews and first responders in your prayers also," thestatement said.Forecasters noticed a "debris ball" signature on radar as the storm charged toward Tupelo, indicating debris being picked up by a strong tornado and lofted high into the atmosphere. Screen captures of a Mississippi Department of Transportation camera alongInterstate 22 at Veterans Memorial Bridge showed what appeared to be a large tornado illuminated only by a flash of lightning, or possibly a power flash.
Tornado outbreak: Destructive tornadoes sweep through Mississippi, U.S. –(videos) Several destructive tornadoes swept through Mississippi late Sunday night (LT), May 2, 2021, damaging buildings and downing trees and power lines. A tornado emergency was declared for Tupelo and surrounding areas, but there were no immediate reports of injuries. According to NWS Storm Prediction Center, the country saw 22 tornadoes on May 2, 18 of them in Mississippi. A destructive tornado hit the city of Tupelo, whose officials confirmed the damage and urged residents not to get out and drive. "Emergency crews are currently assessing the degree of damage. Please do not get out and drive. It is dangerous - there are reports that power lines are down in the roads. We will update you as soon as we know the extent of the damage. Prayers that all are safe, and please keep our crews and first responders in your prayers also," the City of Tupelo Mayor's Office said. Tupelo Middle School sustained some damage, as well as houses and business, the AP reported. At least 2 other cities reported destruction during yesterday's severe weather outbreak. "The town of Calhoun City was hit hard tonight," Calhoun County Sheriff's Office said. "Light poles have been snapped off. Trees in a few homes. Trees on vehicles. Damage to several businesses. Fortunately, we have had no reports at this time of injuries. We are asking that you PLEASE STAY OFF THE ROADS AT THIS TIME. Emergency personnel are working feverishly to open the roads as quickly as possible." The third affected city is Yazoo, about 270 km (170 miles) SW of Tupelo and 195 km (120 miles) SW of Calhoun. City officials confirmed numerous damaged structures, without any injuries. A cyclic supercell produced damaging tornadoes from Yazoo to Durant. 4 of these tornadoes were captured in this video recorded by Alec Scholten: Another tornado was reported in Fayette and recorded by the Live Storms Media crew:
Biden Promises to ‘Build Back Better.’ Some Climate Experts See Trouble. – NY Times --Critics say the administration hasn’t defined a clear climate resilience strategy and has been slow to fill key jobs to coordinate that work. When President Biden arrived in Lake Charles, La., on Thursday to push for spending trillions of dollars on infrastructure nationwide, plywood still covered windows broken from back-to-back hurricanes that devastated the city last summer. “I promise you, we’re going to build back better,” Mr. Biden said, talking about the need to act as climate change continues. “Better able to withstand storms that are becoming more severe and more frequent than ever.” Just weeks from the start of hurricane season, climate experts warn that Mr. Biden’s administration has yet to take steps that would turn his pledge to “build back better” into reality. They cite its failure to reinstitute a rule on building in flood zones that former President Donald J. Trump scrapped, its lack of an overarching climate resilience strategy and the fact that it has yet to hire senior staff to manage and coordinate that work. “You can’t simply say, we’re going to have resilient infrastructure, without having a plan and definition for what that means,” said Alice Hill, who oversaw climate resilience during the Obama administration. The concerns raised about Mr. Biden’s actions so far highlight the difference between two distinct areas of climate action. In addition to cutting the emissions of planet-warming gases, experts are increasingly urging the federal government to help prepare communities for the effects of that warming, such as worsening storms and rising seas. Those policies, which experts call climate adaptation, can be unpopular: They can include tougher and more expensive building standards in areas exposed to flooding or hurricanes; allowing fewer homes to be built in those places to begin with; or even encouraging people to leave. The difficulty of talking about those steps is exactly why Mr. Biden’s administration needs to make them part of its climate agenda, said Robert Freudenberg, vice president for energy and environment at the Regional Plan Association, a planning group in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. But so far, tackling climate adaptation and resilience are not atop the agenda, Mr. Freudenberg said.
Huge lava fountains at Fagradalsfjall, biggest since the eruption start, Iceland –Video -- -New fissure openings have formed several times since the eruption at Fagradalsfjall, Iceland began on March 19, 2021. On May 2, the activity at the volcano changed, producing huge lava fountains -- the biggest since the eruption started. The video was captured by Sigfús Steindórsson around 02:00 local time on May 2.Lava fountains were seen reaching about 300 m (985 feet) above ground lasting from 3 to 10 minutes.The Icelandic Met Office (IMO) confirmed considerable changes in volcanic activity, starting at around 01:00 LT on May 2."It's not clear what causes these changes in volcanic activity, but it cannot be ruled out that there have been changes in magma flow, the chemical composition of magma/gas or that there have been changes in the feed system," IMO said. "In light of this changed activity, the size of the danger area at the eruption sites is being reassessed."
Size of hazard area in Fagradalsfjall under re-evaluation after change in volcanic activity, Iceland – (videos) Authorities in Iceland are re-evaluating the size of the hazard area at the eruption site in Fagradalsfjall after a significant change in activity detected on May 2. The eruption in Fagradalsfjall continues through one main crater -- the fifth fissure that opened in the area on April 13. The volcano started erupting on March 19, 2021, after a long period of intense seismicity. The volcanic activity was characterized by continuous lava fountains since April 27, but the activity changed at around midnight UTC on May 2 and has since been showing pulsating behavior. Here's a view of the volcanic eruption in Iceland from early this morning.pic.twitter.com/rOH8rkRePZ These pulses have intermittent active periods of 8 - 12 minutes, with 1 - 2 minutes of rest periods in between. The active pulses start with a strong fountain activity, with fountains reaching up to 100 - 150 m (330 - 500 feet) above ground level, and some even higher -- up to 300 m (985 feet). These pulses are very apparent in the seismic tremor from seismic stations in a wide area around the eruption site. On Sunday morning, just after 06:00 UTC, the wind direction changed to slow easterly, and a few hours later smoke was detected in the southwest slopes of Geldingadalir. Possibly, hot pyroxene from the eruptive crater has been carried by the wind to the southwest of the lava field for about 300 m (985 feet) distance and started a brush fire. The Icelandic Met Office said it is not clear at this time what is causing these changes in volcanic activity, but changes in magma flow, the chemical composition of magma/gas, or possibly changes in the volcanic conduit cannot be ruled out. Considering these changes in activity, the size of the hazard area at the eruption site is being re-evaluated, IMO said.
Unusually high lava fountains beyond 460 m (1 500 feet) at Fagradalsfjall, Iceland - Powerful jets of lava have been observed at the Fagradalsfjall eruption site on Iceland's Reykjanes Peninsula, with some reaching unusual heights beyond 460 m (1 500 feet) at 05:40 UTC on Wednesday, May 5, 2021, the Icelandic Met Office (IMO) reported. On Wednesday, IMO noted a slight change in the seismic tremor measurements at Fagradalsfjall shortly before 04:30 UTC. Until then, the rhythm had been the same, roughly 10 minutes between magma jets. However, in the morning, about half an hour passed between powerful magma jet eruptions. At 05:40 UTC, IMO reported an "unusually high magma jet" that went beyond the perspective on the RUV webcam and "seems to have risen above 460 m (1 500 feet)." Due to the powerful lava fountains and materials ejected from a great distance, authorities defined new danger zones. Incandescent materials were spewed southwest of the crater, starting a fire and emitting smoke. The activity on the volcano is characterized by intermittent episodes of pulsating lava fountains from the central vent, following periods of calm effusion of lava.
High level of activity continues at Pacaya volcano, Guatemala-- High level of activity-- including strong eruptions, ash emissions, and a new lava flow-- continue at Pacaya volcano in Guatemala, the National Coordination System for Disaster Reduction (CONRED) reports. This new phase of increased activity came less than a week after authorities declared the last eruptive phase over, which spanned February 5 to April 23. Lava flows from the new fissure vent on the northwestern flank of Pacaya's McKenney crater that begun around April 29 remain active and have reached the flatter areas at the base of the cone. CONRED has been observing explosions of incandescent material from the volcano, and lava flows from the fissure continue its path to the west with a length of 2 100 m (6 900 feet). Incandescent blocks continue to occur throughout the flow, especially where the slope is greater, the National Institute of Seismology, Volcanology, Meteorology, and Hydrology (INSIVUMEH) eported. Seismic networks register internal tremors around the volcano due to the movement of magma, as well as periods of degassing in the crater. "CONRED, [along with] the Volcano Prevention Unit, Immediate Response Teams -ERI- and Departmental and Regional Delegates, maintains attention to the Pacaya volcano, to develop the corresponding actions for the activity that it presents," the national disaster agency wrote.
Multiple lahars observed at St. Vincent, public advised to be vigilant and exercise caution --The National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) of St. Vincent and the Grenadines is advising the public to be vigilant and exercise caution in areas close to valleys, rivers, streams, low-lying areas, and areas prone to flooding and landslides. Multiple lahars have already been observed on Monday, May 3. The country's Meteorological Services says pockets of light to moderate showers are expected through early Tuesday morning (LT), May 4. The stations at Jennings Valley, South Rivers, and Majorca recorded over 25 mm (1 inch) of rainfall over a 6 hour period on May 3, and soils are still saturated from the heavy rainfall event on Thursday, April 29, 2021. More showers may result in flooding and landslides, NEMO said. There is also a heavy accumulation of volcanic ash especially in valleys close to the La Soufriere Volcano which can result in Lahars or mudflows in rainy conditions. Residents are urged to be on the alert for possible impacts resulting from rain-soaked ash. In addition, residents especially in the Yellow, Orange and Red Zones should avoid areas within the vicinity of rivers due to destructive mudflows (lahars). Motorists are also asked to exercise caution on the roads due to slippery road conditions that can occur when ash mixes with rainwater. NEMO said it will not be issuing passes for the Red Volcano Hazard Zones due to the potential dangers that mudflows pose.In 24 hours to 22:00 UTC on May 3, only a few long-period, hybrid and volcano-tectonic earthquakes were recorded and there was no further seismic tremor. The seismic network recorded signals from multiple lahars for a period of about six hours starting around 09:00 LT (13:00 UTC). These lahars most likely took place in the valleys around La Soufriere. The most intense lahars occurred between 11:00 and 12:00 LT (15:00 - 16:00 UTC). Measurements of the sulfur dioxide flux at the volcano were carried out with the help of the coastguard off the west coast of St. Vincent on May 2. Measurements yielded an average SO2 flux of 1 036 tons per day. The volcano continues to be in a state of unrest. Explosions with accompanying ashfall, of similar or larger magnitude to those that have already occurred, can take place with little or no warning. The volcano remains at Alert Level RED.
Caribbean Volcano Eruptions Send Sulfur Gases as Far as India -- Satellite data show an unseasonal surge in sulfur dioxide across North India after emissions from a volcanic eruption in the Caribbean reached the South Asian nation last month.The colorless gas was emitted from several explosive blasts that rocked La Soufrière and the Caribbean island of St. Vincent starting April 9. It can mix with water to form sulfuric acid that forms acid rain.After about a week of explosive eruptions, satellite measurements show La Soufrièrehas delivered about 0.4-0.6 teragrams of sulfur dioxide to the upper atmosphere, according to NASA’s Earth Observatory website. That is more than satellites have ever measured from any other Caribbean volcano.Of the 45 currently erupting volcanoes on Earth, La Soufrière is among those that worry volcanologists the most. “The current thinking is that a volcano needs to inject at least 5 teragrams of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere to have measurable climate impacts,” Michigan Technological University volcanologist Simon Carn told NASA.
Multiple lahars observed at St. Vincent, public advised to be vigilant and exercise caution --The National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) of St. Vincent and the Grenadines is advising the public to be vigilant and exercise caution in areas close to valleys, rivers, streams, low-lying areas, and areas prone to flooding and landslides. Multiple lahars have already been observed on Monday, May 3. The country's Meteorological Services says pockets of light to moderate showers are expected through early Tuesday morning (LT), May 4. The stations at Jennings Valley, South Rivers, and Majorca recorded over 25 mm (1 inch) of rainfall over a 6 hour period on May 3, and soils are still saturated from the heavy rainfall event on Thursday, April 29, 2021. More showers may result in flooding and landslides, NEMO said. There is also a heavy accumulation of volcanic ash especially in valleys close to the La Soufriere Volcano which can result in Lahars or mudflows in rainy conditions. Residents are urged to be on the alert for possible impacts resulting from rain-soaked ash. In addition, residents especially in the Yellow, Orange and Red Zones should avoid areas within the vicinity of rivers due to destructive mudflows (lahars). Motorists are also asked to exercise caution on the roads due to slippery road conditions that can occur when ash mixes with rainwater. NEMO said it will not be issuing passes for the Red Volcano Hazard Zones due to the potential dangers that mudflows pose.In 24 hours to 22:00 UTC on May 3, only a few long-period, hybrid and volcano-tectonic earthquakes were recorded and there was no further seismic tremor. The seismic network recorded signals from multiple lahars for a period of about six hours starting around 09:00 LT (13:00 UTC). These lahars most likely took place in the valleys around La Soufriere. The most intense lahars occurred between 11:00 and 12:00 LT (15:00 - 16:00 UTC). Measurements of the sulfur dioxide flux at the volcano were carried out with the help of the coastguard off the west coast of St. Vincent on May 2. Measurements yielded an average SO2 flux of 1 036 tons per day. The volcano continues to be in a state of unrest. Explosions with accompanying ashfall, of similar or larger magnitude to those that have already occurred, can take place with little or no warning. The volcano remains at Alert Level RED.
A Massive Methane Reservoir Is Lurking Beneath the Sea -Methane bubbles regularly reach the surface of the Laptev Sea in the East Siberian Arctic Ocean (ESAO), each of them a small blow to our efforts to mitigate climate change. The source of the methane used to be a mystery, but a joint Swedish-Russian-U.S. investigation recently discovered that an ancient gas reservoir is responsible for the bubbly leaks.Methane in the Laptev Sea is stored in reservoirs below the sea's submarine permafrost or in the form ofmethane hydrates—solid ice-like structures that trap the gas inside. It is also produced by microbes in the thawing permafrost itself. Not all of these sources are created equal: Whereas microbial methane is released in a slow, gradual process, disintegrating hydrates and reservoirs can lead to sudden, eruptive releases.Methane is escaping as the Laptev's submarine permafrost is thawed by the relative warmth of overlying seawater. With an even stronger greenhouse effect than carbon dioxide, methane releases into the atmosphere could substantially amplify global warming."To anticipate how these methane releases will develop over the coming decades or centuries, we need to understand what reservoirs of methane the releases are coming from," said Örjan Gustafsson, leader of the research group that conducted the investigation. Julia Steinbach, a researcher at Stockholm University and lead author of the new research, was instrumental in devising the triple-isotope-based method for finding methane sources. Stable isotopes detect the origin of the molecules, and radioactive isotopes help to find their age. Using this novel approach, the team discovered that the source of the methane was an old reservoir, deep below the permafrost. The study was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America in March."The big finding was that we really have something that's coming out from a deep pool," said Steinbach. As the permafrost thaws, it opens up new pathways that allow methane to pass through.According to Gustafsson, this is worrying, as the pool likely contains more methane than is currently in the atmosphere. "There is, unfortunately, a risk that this methane release might increase, so it will eventually have a sizable effect on the climate," he said.
Changes in the Gulf Stream due to climate change will have severe consequences for weather in Europe and North America by end of the century -- Human-induced climate change has caused a substantial reduction in the Gulf Stream’s rate of flow, according to a new study by a team of scientists from Ireland, Britain and Germany published in the journal Nature Geoscience. Furthermore, the researchers predict that should this trend continue, which is likely under current conditions, the degradation of the Gulf Stream will reach a “tipping point” beyond which the change will become irreversible, producing major, negative impacts to weather patterns along the North Atlantic coasts of Europe and North America. The results of this study support previous modeling that predicted the slowing that has now been documented. The North Atlantic Gulf Stream, also known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), begins near Florida, flows northward along the east coast of North America, then swings eastward toward Europe, subsequently diverging into a number of separate currents. It is one of the world’s major ocean currents which have a major influence on global climate. In particular, the Gulf Stream acts as a moderating influence on the weather patterns of eastern North America and western Europe. Without it, weather patterns in these areas would be more extreme, including a greater range of temperatures and precipitation, and a marked increase in severe storms, possibly deflecting winter storm tracks over Europe. It would also accelerate sea level rise in both areas. The moderating effect of the Gulf Stream on weather patterns along the northern hemisphere’s Atlantic coasts is caused by the huge amount of warm water—more than 5.2 billion gallons (20 million cubic meters) per second—it pumps into the North Atlantic, counteracting the colder water from the Arctic region to the north. The researchers predict that the tipping point could be reached by the year 2100, beyond which the Gulf Stream would be substantially degraded or halted altogether. Once that happens, the change would likely be irreversible, regardless of any efforts to moderate climate change.
Ocean Plastic Pollution Flows From More Rivers Than Previously Thought --Plastic pollution is entering the ocean from more sources than previously thought.A new study published in Science Advances Friday found that 80 percent of the plastic that enters the world's oceans via rivers comes from more than 1,000 waterways. That's as much as 100 times the number of rivers previously estimated, study leader the Ocean Cleanup explained."[T]he problem is actually much more vast than we used to think," Ocean Cleanup founder Boyan Slat toldBBC News. "It's not 10 rivers, it's 1,000."The Ocean Cleanup is a nonprofit launched by Slat with the goal of using technology to remove 90 percent of the plastic waste floating in the ocean. As part of that goal, the organization funded three years of research into how and how many rivers were significantly contributing to plastic pollution. Their findings upended some previous assumptions, as National Geographic explained. In 2017, two studies concluded that 90 percent of the plastic that enters the ocean via rivers was contributed by a small fraction of the world's rivers — 10 in one study and 20 in another. Further, these rivers were large rivers that traveled a long way, such as Egypt's Nile or China's Yangtze. However, the new study has found that the biggest culprits are actually smaller rivers in urban areas. The 16-mile Pasig River in the Philippines is now considered a greater contributor to ocean plastics than the Yangtze, which flows 3,915 miles and was formerly ranked the most plastic-polluted river.The new insights are based on an increased amount of data and new modeling. "One big difference from a few years ago is we don't consider rivers mere conveyor belts of plastics," lead author Lourens J.J. Meijer told National Geographic. "If you put plastic into the river hundreds of kilometers from the mouth, it doesn't mean that that plastic will end up in the ocean."
US Space Command Closely Tracking Large Chinese Rocket's Out-Of-Control Fall To Earth - The Pentagon and US Space Command are said to be tracking a large Chinese rocket which is set to reenter Earth's atmosphere at some point this coming weekend, likely "around May 8th" according to the latest DoD statement. Crucially, the concern is that the falling rocket's debris could land on inhabited places and pose a danger to people below, given that it is among the largest ever launces to make an uncontrolled and high speed re-entry into earth's atmosphere. It's also the Chinese Long March 5B rocket's size - at 30 meters in length and weighing 22 tons - that poses the likelihood that an immense amount of debris could fall down to Earth's surface as opposed to be being burned up upon re-entry, as is typical with smaller rockets.US Defense Department spokesman Mike Howard issued to following details in a Tuesday statement:The rocket's "exact entry point into the Earth's atmosphere" can't be pinpointed until within hours of reentry, Howard said, but the 18th Space Control Squadron will provide daily updates on the rocket's location through the Space Track website. The rocket was used by the Chinese to launch part of their space station last week. While most space debris objects burn up in the atmosphere, the rocket's size — 22 tons — has prompted concern that large parts could reenter and cause damage if they hit inhabited areas.This is something which, though very rare, has happened in the recent past. In May of 2020 a Chinese Long March 5B made a similarly uncontrolled re-entry which resulted in debris raining down on inhabited areas of the Ivory Coast.
Antarctic Ice Sheet melting to lift sea level higher than thought, study says - Global sea-level rise associated with the possible collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has been significantly underestimated in previous studies, meaning the sea level in a warming world will be greater than anticipated, according to a new study from Harvard researchers.The report, published in Science Advances, features new calculations for what researchers refer to as a water-expulsion mechanism. This occurs when the solid bedrock the West Antarctic Ice Sheet sits on rebounds upward as the ice melts and the total weight of the ice sheet decreases. The bedrock sits below sea level, so when it lifts it pushes water from the surrounding area into the ocean, adding to global sea-level rise.The new predictions show that in the case of a total collapse of the ice sheet, global sea-level rise estimates would be amplified by an additional meter, about 3 feet, within the next 1,000 years.“The magnitude of the effect shocked us,” said Linda Pan, a Ph.D. student in Earth and planetary science in GSAS who co-led the study with fellow graduate student Evelyn Powell. “Previous studies that had considered the mechanism dismissed it as inconsequential.”“If the West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapsed, the most widely cited estimate of the resulting global mean sea-level rise that would result is 3.2 meters,” said Powell. “What we’ve shown is that the water-expulsion mechanism will add an additional meter, or 30 percent, to the total.” This is not a story about impact that will be felt in hundreds of years. One of the simulations Pan and Powell performed indicated that by the end of this century, global sea-level rise caused by melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet would increase 20 percent by the water expulsion mechanism. “Every published projection of sea-level rise due to melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet that has been based on climate modeling, whether the projection extends to the end of this century or longer into the future, is going to have to be revised upward because of their work,” “Every single one.”
Melting Antarctic could push seas to 'catastrophic' levels (Thomson Reuters) - Antarctic melting could cause a "dramatic" rise in sea levels if countries fail to keep global warming below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit), posing a serious threat to low-lying and coastal regions, researchers said on Wednesday. If the upper temperature goal set in the Paris Agreement is exceeded, the melting Antarctic ice sheet could cause annual average sea-level rise of 0.07 inches (0.18 cm) globally in 2060 and beyond, said the study published in the journal Nature. Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, more than 190 countries agreed to hold global average temperature rise to "well below" 2C above pre-industrial times and strive for a limit of 1.5C. Warming of 3C - a scenario that is more consistent with current policies - would push sea levels up by a "catastrophic" 0.2 inches per year globally after 2060 due to Antarctic melting, the study added. Researchers used a model based on satellite observations, climate data and machine learning to predict the region's ice loss under different global policies to curb greenhouse gas emissions. "Ice-sheet collapse is irreversible over thousands of years, and if the Antarctic ice sheet becomes unstable, it could continue to retreat for centuries," said co-author Daniel M. Gilford of the Rutgers Earth System Science & Policy Lab. "That's regardless of whether emissions mitigation strategies such as removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere are employed," he added in a statement. Low-lying nations like Bangladesh, which already suffers from extreme storms and floods, are most vulnerable to the impacts of rising temperatures and sea levels, said Atiq Rahman, head of the nonprofit Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies. In Bangladesh's flat southern area, "a little increase in sea level transfers into a much bigger linear or horizontal increase of land cover by saltwater," explained Rahman, who was not involved in the study. "Gradually, those who are now in (areas of) brackish water, which is saltwater plus fresh water, (their land) will become saline and their agricultural productivity will decrease." The result will be higher displacement, with people forced to move to urban areas already struggling to accommodate growing populations, where many will lead a poorer quality of life away from their families, Rahman said. Coastal communities are seeking to cope through simple measures like growing vegetables in pots away from saltwater, he noted. "People are trying to adapt, but adaptation has limits," he added. A study published by the American Geophysical Union, an international scientific group, last month predicted that rising seas could trigger waves of migration across Bangladesh, affecting more than 1.3 million people by 2050.
Carbon Hits Record 50 Euros on Tighter Pollution Rules - The cost of pollution in Europe has surged more than 50% this year, signaling that the region’s tougher climate policies are starting to make a difference. Futures in the region’s carbon market, the world’s biggest, exceeded 50 euros ($60) per metric ton for the first time on Tuesday. Rising prices make it more expensive to release carbon dioxide into the air and force industry to look for cleaner ways to stoke their furnaces and keep the lights on. And the rally has further to go, according to Ulf Ek, chief investment officer at London hedge fund Northlander Commodity Advisors LLP. He expects futures to trade as high as 75 euros by the end of the year. “The 50 euro-mark has some significance since it has been a target price for some investors for a number of years by now,” Ek said by email. “Fundamentally, we believe prices can go higher than that, but also expect some tough political discussions on our way to 100+ prices which may turn sentiment at some point.” The permits rose as much as 1.3% on Tuesday to trade as high as 50.05 euros on ICE Futures Europe, before trading little changed from Monday. Options traders are anticipating even higher prices. Calls to buy European Union emission permits at 60 euros per ton, or about 20% above the prevailing market rate, now have the highest open interest on the ICE Futures Europe exchange. Last spring, carbon futures slumped with the rest of the global economy as the pandemic struck, trading below 15 euros in late March 2020 as the lockdowns crimped industrial activity. But as leaders in Brussels moved to make the economic recovery a green one, it became clear that any disruption in the carbon market would be temporary. In July, futures surged above 30 euros for the first time in more than a decade, just days before the EU passed its 500 billion-euro Green Deal. At the same time, financial players have continued to buy the permits, seeing an arbitrage opportunity between the current price and higher levels needed to achieve the climate plans.
The world needs to dramatically cut methane emissions to avoid worst of climate change, UN says - A landmark United Nations report has declared that drastically cutting emissions of methane, a key component of natural gas, is necessary to avoid the worst impacts of global climate change. The report, published Thursday by the Climate and Clear Coalition and the U.N. Environment Programme, represents a shift in the worldwide conversation on how to best address the climate crisis, which has focused on longer-term carbon dioxide reduction. Methane is 84 times more potent than carbon and doesn't last as long in the atmosphere before it breaks down. This makes it a critical target for reducing global warming more quickly while simultaneously working to reduce other greenhouse gases. More than half of global methane emissions come from oil and gas extraction in the fossil fuel industry, landfills and wastewater from the waste sector, and livestock emissions from manure and enteric fermentation in the agricultural sector. The world could slash methane emissions by up to 45% this decade, or 180 million tons a year, according to the U.N.'s Global Methane Assessment. Such a target will avoid nearly 0.3 degrees Celsius of warming by 2045 and help limit the rise in global temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius, a goal of the Paris climate accord. The report comes after methane emissions surged to record highs last year despite worldwide lockdowns during the coronavirus pandemic, according to research from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Methane emissions are also rising faster than ever since record-keeping began in the 1980s. "Cutting methane is the strongest lever we have to slow climate change over the next 25 years and complements necessary efforts to reduce carbon dioxide," Inger Andersen, executive director of the U.N. Environment Programme, said in a statement. "The benefits to society, economies, and the environment are numerous and far outweigh the cost," Andersen said. "We need international cooperation to urgently reduce methane emissions as much as possible this decade." The fossil fuel industry has the greatest potential for reducing global emissions at little or negative cost by repairing leaks from oil and gas infrastructure, the report said. It added that companies that prevent leaks and capture methane could profit while curbing methane release.
Reducing Methane Is Crucial for Protecting Climate and Health, and It Can Pay for Itself – Yet Emissions Are Still Rising Fast, A New UN Report Warns -- Methane, the main ingredient in natural gas, is a larger climate problem than the world anticipates, and cutting its emissions will be crucial to slow global warming, a new United Nations report warns. The greenhouse gas is many times more powerful than carbon dioxide at warming the planet, and its concentration in the atmosphere is increasing faster than at any time since record keeping began in the 1980s.Methane is much more than a climate problem, though, and this is where the report gets interesting. As methane emissions are reduced, the world reaps several benefits quickly, for health as well as the climate. In most cases, the benefits of taking action far outweigh the cost – in fact many of them make money.The report’s lead author Drew Shindell, a climate scientist and physicist, explained the findings and the urgency:The top takeaway is that methane is going up very quickly, and it needs to drop by nearly half by 2030 to keep global warming under 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 F) if we hope to stay on the lowest-cost path. That means we have a rapid U-turn to make.The good news is that we have a lot to gain by cutting these emissions.Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, but it’s also a precursor of surface ozone, which is a toxic air pollutant. So, reducing methane improves the quality of the air we breathe at the same time that it reduces climate change, and the results are almost immediate.A lot of steps to reduce methane also save money, because methane is intrinsically valuable. If you capture methane from a landfill, you have a source of income right there. Capture it from leaking pipelines, and it pays for itself, because that’s the whole point of these pipelines – they transport methane as natural gas.With the technology already available today, the world could cut methane emissions from fossil fuels, agriculture and rotting waste by 45% within a decade. That would avoid 0.3 degrees Celsius (0.5 F) of warming, which might not sound like much, but it’s one-fifth of the Paris climate agreement budget of 1.5 C.So, you get climate benefits, you get public health benefits and it’s also a financial win for the companies capturing the methane. It’s not like this is rocket science. A large part of the methane being released is from natural gaspipelines and storage, oil and gas pumping and landfills – and those are all problems we know how to fix.
EPA Proposes Phase Down of Commonly Used Climate Super-Pollutants --As the Biden administration faces pressure to step up its climate action, the Environmental Protection Agency on Monday announced its first rule to tackle the global emergency—a proposal to reduce planet-heating chemicals commonly used in refrigeration and air conditioning by 85% over the next 15 years.The EPA's proposed rule on hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)—which are thousands of times more potent than carbon dioxide—comes in response to the American Innovation and Manufacturing (AIM) Act, which Congress passed in December as part of a Covid-19 relief and spending package.The proposal, which follows President Joe Biden's recent pledge to halve U.S. emissions by 2030 and hisLeaders Summit on Climate last month, was welcomed by David Doniger, senior strategic director in the Climate & Clean Energy Program at the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC)."This rapid move by the Biden EPA to start phasing down these extremely potent climate pollutants will deliver enormous public health and climate benefits to all Americans," Doniger said. "EPA is wasting no time implementing bipartisan legislation that won support ranging from NRDC and other environmental and public health advocates to industry and the Chamber of Commerce.""Replacing HFCs is a critical and totally doable first step to head off the worst of the climate crisis, and we have safer alternatives ready to go that will save industry money in the bargain," he added. "The global HFC phasedown will avoid adding almost another degree Fahrenheit to our overheated world this century."Acknowledging that HFCs contribute to the climate emergency, "which threatens society with costly health and environmental impacts," the EPA estimates that "the cumulative benefits of this action is $283.9 billion from 2022 through 2050, and that the proposal will yield cumulative compliance savings for industry."The agency's statement also said that the total emission reductions for that time period are projected to amount to the equivalent of 4.7 billion metric tons of CO2, or nearly three years of U.S. power sector emissions at 2019 levels. Under the proposal, set to be finalized later this year, EPA "would set the HFC production and consumption baseline levels from which reductions will be made, establish an initial methodology for allocating HFC allowances for 2022 and 2023, and create a robust, agile, and innovative compliance and enforcement system," the statement explained.
China emitted more greenhouse gasses than US, developed world combined in 2019: analysis -China’s 2019 greenhouse gas emissions exceeded those of the U.S. and other major developed nations combined, according to a report by research firm The Rhodium Group released Thursday. The report put China’s proportion of worldwide emissions at 27 percent in 2019, followed by the U.S. with 11 percent, India with 6.6 percent and the European Union with 6.4 percent. While China’s emissions must be viewed in the context of its population, per capita emissions have also nearly tripled over the past two decades to 10.1 tons, according to the report. Despite the increase, Chinese per capita emissions remain well below that of the U.S., which has the world’s highest per capita level with 17.6 tons per capita. “While final global data for 2020 is not yet available, we expect China’s per capita emissions exceeded the OECD [Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development] average in 2020, as China’s net [greenhouse gas] emissions grew around 1.7% while emissions from almost all other nations declined sharply in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic,” the report states. Another complicating factor is that China has been a major emitter for a much shorter period than OECD nations in particular, which have collectively admitted four times more cumulative carbon dioxide than China since 1750. “This overstates the relative role of OECD emissions in the more than 1 degree Celsius increase in global temperatures that has occurred since before the industrial revolution because a large share of annual CO2 emissions is absorbed in the earth’s carbon cycle in the decades after release,” the report states. “But China still has a way to go before surpassing the OECD on a cumulative contribution basis.”
China's push to cut carbon emissions boosts risks for part of the country — China's bond defaults are increasingly concentrated in a part of the country whose growth could face greater pressure from tough new restrictions on carbon emissions, according to analysis from Nomura. Fifteen regions in the northern half of China, including Beijing and Inner Mongolia, accounted for 63.4% of the number of national bond defaults last year, up from 51.5% in 2019, according to Nomura's estimates published in an April 27 report. It's the latest sign of growing economic disparity within the country, where GDP and population growth in the north already lags that of the south. Now, China's pledge to to reduce carbon emissions by 2030 means production restrictions are coming for the northern region's economy. "The new environmental campaign has the potential to hit North China — where a majority of steel, aluminum, and other raw materials are produced and processed — especially hard," the Nomura analysts wrote. "Since most of those steel and aluminum plants are in low-tier (less developed) cities, the public financials of these cities will likely be disproportionately impacted, adding to credit default risks," they said. Historical factors North China is home to many state-owned enterprises and heavy industries. That meant the region was disproportionately affected beginning in the late 1980s, when China began to reduce the role of state-owned enterprises in the economy, causing many workers to lose their jobs. Meanwhile, South China has more export hubs like the provinces of Guangdong and Jiangsu. The region counts Shanghai and Shenzhen among its major cities, and was an early beneficiary of China's move to allow more foreign and privately-run businesses into the relatively closed domestic market. Historical factors, as well as overcapacity built up following the 2008 financial crisis, have contributed to further weakness in the north, the Nomura analysts said. They estimate North China contributed to just 35.2% of national nominal GDP last year, with per capita GDP just about three-fourths of that in South China.
A Growing Summertime Risk for Cities: Power Failures During Heat Waves - — The growing risk of overlapping heat waves and power failures poses a severe threat that major American cities are not prepared for, new research suggests.Power failures have increased by more than 60 percent since 2015, even as climate change has made heat waves worse, according to the new research published in the journal Environmental Science & Technology. Using computer models to study three large U.S. cities, the authors estimated that a combined blackout and heat wave would expose at least two-thirds of residents in those cities to heat exhaustion or heat stroke.And although each of the cities in the study has dedicated public cooling centers for people who need relief from the heat, those centers could accommodate no more than 2 percent of a given city’s population, the authors found, leaving an overwhelming majority of residents in danger.“A widespread blackout during an intense heat wave may be the deadliest climate-related event we can imagine,” said Brian Stone Jr., a professor at the School of City & Regional Planning at Georgia Institute of Technology and the lead author of the study. Yet such a scenario is “increasingly likely,” he said.The findings come just months after a winter storm knocked out power for millions of people in Texas, causing more than 150 deathsand demonstrating how easily severe weather can overwhelm electrical grids and other infrastructure.But as much as winter storms and extreme cold remain a threat, the greater risk to human health as temperatures rise is from extreme heat.Heat is already the most dangerous type of severe-weather event, by one estimate killing some 12,000 Americans each year. And climate change is making heat waves more frequent and severe. The changing climate also seems to be making power failures more common. From 2015 to 2020, the number of blackouts annually in the United States doubled, Dr. Stone said. And those blackouts were more likely to occur during the summer, suggesting they were being driven in part by high temperatures, which increase demand on the electrical grid as people turn up their air-conditioners.
Critics say Michigan climate report relies too heavily on carbon capture | Energy News Network --Michigan environmental groups say a recent report meant to help inform the state’s plan for reaching net-zero emissions relies on unproven technology and a flawed analysis to dismiss the feasibility of hitting 100% renewable energy.Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s recently convened Michigan Council on Climate Solutions is aiming to develop a plan by December that will help chart the state’s course to net-zero. The council is an advisory board Whitmer created during a series of late 2020 executive orders and includes 14 governor-appointed members. During the council’s late February opening presentation, consulting group World Resource Institute presented four “pathways” to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 and net-negative emissions beyond that. The report suggested the best option was to aim for an energy system powered by between 63% and 81% renewables by 2050, and rely on carbon capture programs to close much of the remaining gap. The target is much lower than the 100% renewables target for which many state environmental groups are calling. They also oppose the inclusion of carbon capture, which they allege doesn’t reduce emissions and allows industry to continue polluting communities around companies’ factories. “If we truly care about ending systemic oppression of [environmental justice] communities, we cannot afford to be unambitious,” said Juan Jhong Chung, policy associate with the Michigan Environmental Justice Coalition, which represents about 50 environmental groups statewide. The report calls for “aggressive” carbon dioxide removal strategies that move beyond forest and soil sequestration programs like that which Michigan recently announced for a small section of state forest. Those include direct air capture and storage, a method that would use technology and machinery that can pull carbon dioxide out of the air and store it in the ground or construction materials.It also calls for an increase in biogas, which involves generating energy by burning wood or organic matter, then capturing and storing carbon emitted during the process, or capturing gas off of landfills and similar waste.
BlackRock ESG Hypocrisy Exposed: Firm Backs Palm Oil Producer With History Of Abuses --BlackRock made a big stink about Warren Buffett's resistance to a pair of shareholder proposals to mandate ESG and diversity reporting standards across Berkshire Hathaway's vast business holdings. Buffett ultimately prevailed, as he has in past years, but the backlash this year was more vocal, with a team of Reuters reporters writing that Buffett's ESG "snub" "risks alienating Wall Street."While some insist that ESG is the way of the future, others contend that it's more of a fad. Some purveyors of tradeable carbon credits have been accused of selling "worthless" offsets, revealing that the system is actually pretty complicated,and auditing whether these credits are actually behaving as advertised could be a resource-intense endeavor.But while BlackRock makes a fuss about reporting standards that, more likely than not, would have little real-world impact, a report published Wednesday by the Financial Times laid bare the ETF giant's hypocrisy when it comes to enforcing its new ESG "standards".The world's biggest asset manager, with nearly $9 trillion in assets, has been accused of being inconsistent for supporting a shareholder protest against Procter & Gamble's sourcing of palm oil from an Indonesian company called Astra Agro Lestari, a subsidiary of the Astra International conglomerate based in Indonesia. The company has been accused of stealing land from local farmers, and other ESG abuses. The company's product enters the US supply chain via a relationship with Singapore-based Wilmar International, which P&G has since asked to investigate its suppliers.But as it happens, BlackRock owns a stake both in Astra International, as well as a small direct stake in its subsidiary. And what has BlackRock done to push reform? Nothing substantial, activists conclude.Rights groups and sustainable investment advocates have now turned their attention to BlackRock, which is a significant shareholder in Astra International. According to Bloomberg data, the US fund group is Astra International’s third-largest investor, with a holding worth almost $350m. It also has a small direct holding in Astra Agro Lestari.
Biden business allies are helping the White House coax the private sector into backing climate agenda - President Joe Biden's allies in the business community have been helping the White House try to coax the private sector into supporting the administration's climate change agenda. Several business leaders who are working with the White House told CNBC that the effort is a major divergence from what they saw during the Trump administration. For instance, executives say they are less worried about a tweet from the president if they try to make a push for new climate policies. Former President Donald Trump was known to target corporations that appeared to oppose him on key issues. "There's no longer the fear of the tweet, which I think was a legitimate fear from a lot of the business leaders in trying to speak out on these issues," Hugh Welsh, president of DSM North America, which is a member of the group CEO Climate Dialogue, told CNBC on Monday. Unlike Trump, Biden has proposed an aggressive climate change policy. Trump pulled the United States out of the Paris climate agreement in 2017 and lifted Obama-era regulations on methane gas, among other actions that could end up hurting the environment. Biden brought the U.S. back into the Paris climate agreement on his Inauguration Day. Biden has also made addressing climate change a key part of his $2 trillion infrastructure plan. Biden's proposal pushes for a $174 billion investment in the electric vehicle market. It's all part of the president's goal to get the country to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. Tom Steyer, a billionaire who ran for president during the Democratic primary, is among several business leaders who have been actively engaging the White House and administration leaders on their climate proposals. Steyer has been speaking with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and White House climate advisor Gina McCarthy on the need to work with the private sector on what will likely be one of the president's most expensive initiatives, according to a person with direct knowledge of the matter. Steyer spent millions to defeat Trump and has invested in climate change initiatives. He has a net worth of $1.4 billion, according to Forbes. He was also a speaker at Morgan Stanley's annual climate conference, this person noted. Steyer told executives and investors at the meeting that they shouldn't invest in fossil fuel companies, as a way to combat climate change. This person declined to be named in order to discuss private matters. Representatives for Morgan Stanley did not respond to requests for comment. The White House did not respond to a request for comment before publication. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the CEO Climate Dialogue have also been engaging the White House on climate initiatives. The Chamber opposes Biden's plan to raise corporate taxes, but it backs an infrastructure overhaul. The CEO Climate Dialogue has almost two dozen members including companies from Wall Street and the energy sector. The goal of the organization is to promote the use of the private sector and a more market-based approach to securing net-zero emissions by 2050.
Granholm backs wind and solar in Biden bid to decarbonize electricity --Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm backed wind and solar energy as likely to give the biggest “bang for your buck” as part of the Biden administration’s bid to decarbonize the electric sector during a House hearing Thursday. During an Appropriations Committee hearing on Thursday, which was slated to examine the Biden administration's proposal for the Energy Department’s budget, Rep. Derek Kilmer (D-Wash.) what would be the most cost-effective clean energy technology and if the department planned to prioritize specific energy sources. “You love all of your children, all of your renewable energy and clean energy technologies, but I do think in terms of the biggest bang for your buck, I think research will demonstrate that it still is in solar and wind,” Granholm responded. “Our focus will be both on doing the research that’s necessary but also now on deploying,” she added, specifically citing the department’s loan office that helps fund various types of energy technology. President Biden has said that he wants the electric-sector to be free of carbon emissions by 2035, and in his infrastructure plan, said he hopes to do so by setting a clean electricity standard that’ll mandate such a transition. During the hearing, Granholm also expressed openness to subsidizing nuclear energy plants. “We’re not going to be able to achieve our climate goals if our nuclear power plants shut down, we have to find ways to keep them operating,” she said. “This question of some direct subsidy or some way to support these plants to stay open, that’s still an open question, but I know that this administration would be eager to work with Congress on it,” the official added. Asked about alternatives to a controversial nuclear waste repository in Nevada called Yucca Mountain, Granholm said that the department was “moving forward” to developing an approach to find a consent-based interim storage facility. “The possible steps...include requests for information, engaging with stakeholders and tribal governments, establishing a funding mechanism for interested communities, organizations, maybe tribal governments to explore the concept,” she said, adding that the department hopes to announce next steps “in the coming months.”
John Kerry and Climate Hypocrisy - With the World Economic Forum and Bill Gates attempting to push the world into a "carbon-free future" and with John Kerry being appointed by the Biden Administration as its Special Presidential Envoy for Climate under the Department of State, recent information released as part of the process of serving as a cabinet-level member of the White House staff is particularly pertinent. Now, let's look at Kerry's financial disclosure. Here are the pages that include oil and natural gas production companies: As well, Kerry holds shares in energy distribution companies including Edison International, Entergy Corp, Exelon, Eversource Energy, NRG Energy, WEC Energy Group, XCEL Energy all of which either distribute natural gas to their customers or use hydrocarbons to produce the energy that they sell to their customers According to his Public Financial Disclosure report which lists his stock sales dated electronically on April 11, 2021, Kerry did sell at least some of his holdings in hydrocarbon-based companies, however, that is a moot point since no one will know whether her would have continued to hold these shares had he not been appointed as Biden's climate czarWe also have to keep in mind that John Kerry uses a private jet, a Gulfstream Aerospace G-IV twin-jet Serial Number 1261 as shown onthis FAA Registry for Tail Number N57HJ: The jet is owned by Flying Squirrel LLC, Teresa Heinz-Kerry's company. The address for Flying Squirrel also matches that of the Heinz Family Foundation, located at 625 Liberty Avenue in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania as shown here: According to the Daily Mail, this is what Kerry had to say about his use of a private jet when asked about using it to fly to Iceland in 2019 to accept the Arctic Circle Prize as shown here:'If you offset your carbon - it's the only choice for somebody like me who is traveling the world to win this battle. What I'm doing, almost full time, is working to win the battle on climate change, and in the end, if I offset and contribute my life to do this, I'm not going to be put on the defensive."Poor fellow indeed. Forced to fly in a private jet for our own good. How sad for him.
When Big Green Meets Big Money: The Nature Conservancy Caught Greenwashing Corporate Pollution -- People have had second thoughts about the effectiveness (and even the goals) of a number of “Big Green” organizations for a while. Some are remarkably good — 350.org seems to be one of the best, and the national Sierra Club has also conducted itself rather well for a fair stretch of years. On the other side of the coin sit groups like World Wildlife Fund (WWF) and The Nature Conservancy (TNC). As you can see from the quote above, the WWF is fully aligned with the goals of corporate America, meaning the goals of predatory capitalism. Corporate-aligned, and to a large extent mainstream-Party-aligned environmental and climate groups, too often show the same priorities as the mainstream Party itself — corporate donors first, organizational loyalty second, and public-benefiting policy eighth and last. The Nature Conservancy is an older organization — the original group was founded in 1915 — and it has changed its mission and its stripes several times over the years. You can read about thathistory here. Today most people think of The Nature Conservancy as a “green” (environmentally friendly) organization that purchases land in order to protect it from despoilage. As a result of its many purchases, The Nature Conservancy has been called the “largest environmental non-profit organization by assets and revenue in the Americas,” and perhaps in the world, with assets topping $7 billion in land and other real estate holdings. The Nature Conservancy is, by any measure, rich beyond the dreams of any other “eco-friendly” liberal non-profit. It’s also not what it seems or presents itself as being. The Nature Conservancy has ties to many large companies, including those in the oil, gas, mining, chemical and agricultural industries.[35] As of 2016, its board of directors included the retired chairman of Duke Energy, and executives from Merck, HP, Googleand several financial industry groups.[36] It also has a Business Council which it describes as a consultative forum that includes Bank of America, BP America, Chevron, Coca-Cola, Dow Chemical, Duke Energy, General Mills, Royal Dutch Shell, andStarbucks.[37] The organization faced criticism in 2010 from supporters for its refusal to cut ties with BP after the Gulf oil spill.[38][39] Writer and activist Naomi Klein has strongly criticized The Nature Conservancy for earning money from an oil well on land it controls in Texas and for its continued engagement with fossil fuel companies.[40][41] . More recently comes this, from Bloomberg Green in a report entitled “These Trees Are Not What They Seem: How the Nature Conservancy, the world’s biggest environmental group, became a dealer of meaningless carbon offsets“: JPMorgan, Disney, and BlackRock tout these projects as an important mechanism forslashing their own large carbon footprints. By funding the preservation of carbon-absorbing forests, the companies say, they’re offsetting the carbon-producing impact of their global operations. But in all of those cases, the land was never threatened; the trees were already part of well-preserved forests. Rather than dramatically change their operations—JPMorgan executives continue to jet around the globe, Disney’s cruise ships still burn oil, and BlackRock’s office buildings gobble up electricity—the corporations are working with the Nature Conservancy, the world’s largest environmental group, to employ far-fetched logic to help absolve them of their climate sins. By taking credit for saving well-protected land, these companies are reducing nowhere near the pollution that they claim. [emphasis added] JPMorgan, Disney and BlackRock are certainly getting their money’s worth for their engagement with TNC. The Conservancy defends its carbon-offset projects, saying that all adhere to peer-reviewed methodologies developed by independent registries and that each project is validated by third-party auditors. “We have absolutely no motivation to not achieve real climate solutions,” says Lynn Scarlett, chief external affairs officer at the Conservancy.
Biden’s Road to Clean Energy Runs Through West Virginia’s Manchin, Capito – West Virginia lawmakers occupy key perches on Capitol Hill as President Joe Biden introduces a sweeping infrastructure and climate package—the $2.25 trillion American Jobs Plan—and pledges to revitalize coal country. Senator Joe Manchin, a conservative Democrat, is a crucial swing vote in the 50-50 Senate and chairs the Energy and Natural Resources Committee. Senator Shelley Capito is the top Republican on the Environment and Public Works Committee and an architect of the GOP’s own infrastructure proposal, a $568 billion counteroffer to Biden’s. In the House, West Virginia members sit on the infrastructure-adjacent Ways and Means and Energy and Commerce committees.West Virginia is the second-largest producer of coal in the U.S., behind Wyoming, but historically it has employed the lion’s share of industry workers. Although the number of coal miners nationwide has dwindled to the tens of thousands, in West Virginia they can earn an annual salary of up to about $90,000, money that has helped drive local economies. Even as coal production has shrunk and natural gas has accelerated, the industry in the state is still potent. Coal generated $14 billion in total economic activity in 2019, according to a March study from the West Virginia University College of Business and Economics.“For the last century we’ve done all the heavy jobs, the dirty jobs,” says Manchin. “We’ve helped build this country by the energy we’ve produced.”Acknowledging the shift from fossil fuels, the United Mine Workers of America recently rolled out a road map to “enhance opportunities for miners, their families, and their communities.” It calls for support for coal-fired carbon capture and storage, to keep existing jobs; tax incentives for renewable-energy manufacturing, to create new ones; wage replacement and training for dislocated miners; and other measures.But there’s skepticism that the transition can benefit coal country. “We believe that the Second Coming of the Lord is gonna get here before a just transition makes it our way,” United Mine Workers of America President Cecil Roberts Jr. said in April during a virtual press event he led with Manchin.Capito says Biden’s clean-energy plans pose the risk of West Virginians losing out and that she’s determined not to let constituents “get dropped on their heads again.” She worries it will be a repeat of President Obama’s Clean Power Plan, which would have led to “basically just an abrupt closure” of fossil fuel activities “with a pretty callous regard as to what’s happened to people.”Although Biden won only 30% of votes in deep-red West Virginia, his jobs plan holds the potential for investment in infrastructure and manufacturing, especially now that the Senate has lifted its ban on earmarks. West Virginia has a notable history in that respect: The name of the late Senator Robert Byrd, the long-serving Democrat and Appropriations Committee chairman, is affixed to numerous bridges, roads, and buildings around the state.
Gridlocked: These policies might put Biden’s transmission infrastructure plans on hold -- “Our grids are vulnerable to storms, hacks, catastrophic failures — with tragic results, as we saw in Texas and elsewhere during the winter storms,” Biden said in his first speech to a joint session of Congress last week. He highlighted his $2 trillion infrastructure proposal, which he said “will create jobs that lay thousands of miles of transmission lines needed to build a resilient and fully clean grid.” The speech came just days after his administration announced $8.25 billion in new Energy Department loans to finance “innovative” transmission projects, including those that would transport renewable energy generated in the West or that are owned by tribal nations and Alaska Native corporations. There’s just one hitch to this ambitious plan to expand the country’s grid: It is difficult to build electric transmission projects as quickly as necessary under current U.S. policies. A new report by the nonprofit Americans for a Clean Energy Grid identifies 22 high-voltage transmission projects that are “shovel-ready,” meaning they are mostly or completely sited and permitted. The transmission lines would create an estimated 600,000 jobs and interconnect 60,000 megawatts of new renewable energy capacity, boosting the country’s wind and solar generation by nearly 50 percent. But while developers say they are prepared to begin construction, many of the 22 projects are being held up by financing and administrative barriers that, the report said, could be addressed if decision makers enact more “workable” policies. The report proposes changes such as streamlined project siting and permitting, a tax credit for transmission projects, and direct investment by the federal government in new transmission lines.Some of these “shovel-ready” projects have been in the works for a decade or more, going through years of siting processes and environmental reviews, said Rob Gramlich, one of the report’s authors and the founder of Grid Strategies, a clean energy transmission consulting firm. This decade-long pace, he said, is nowhere near fast enough to reach the country’s clean energy goals. Under current policies, Gramlich expects only half of the 22 projects identified in the report to come to fruition at all.
Growth in solar power sparks a land rush— Bill Lanford’s mailbox for the past year has been filling up with offers and solicitations to lease part of his family farm. The offers don’t come from housing developers though. Instead they come from alternative energy companies that are scrambling to secure suitable properties for solar farms. He eventually struck a deal with Eden Renewables, a Troy-based developer with a track record of building projects. Lanford is experiencing the latest version of a long American tradition with a high-tech twist. Like the Sooners who raced to settle the best farmland in Oklahoma in the 1800s, and the 49ers who scrambled up the mountains of the Sierra Nevada during the Gold Rush, builders of solar farms are racing to grab the best spots for their planned projects. Upstate New York is especially attractive to these developers for several reasons. The need for green power is immense in the population-dense New York metropolitan area. Upstate has the open spaces for solar farms. And the state’s push for 70 percent green energy by the end of this decade means there is a variety of subsidies for solar development. Solar companies and land leasing companies are using drones, Google maps and old fashioned shoe leather to ferret out buildable solar spots. But this land rush has sparked questions in some communities that are being impacted. “It’s the Wild West,” said Lynne Bruning, a Duanesburg resident who tried unsuccessfully to question or halt a solar farm next door to her home. Still, for some landowners the solar push has been a blessing that will allow them to keep their farms in the family.
NMFS reports right whales increasing use of New England offshore wind areas - Endangered northern right whales that have been arriving earlier in spring and staying longer around Cape Cod have also expanded their presence south and west of Nantucket Shoals, into areas planned for large-scale development of offshore wind power, according to the National Marine Fisheries Service. Scientists from the NMFS Northeast Fisheries Science Center conducting surveillance flights spotted 57 fight whales March 30 off southeast New England, in and around wind energy areas that have been leased to developers by the federal Bureau of Ocean Energy Management. NMFS officials said those whales included three mother-calf pairs – results from what experts have called the most successful calving season in years for the highly endangered species, with 17 young reported and nine mother-calf pairs sighted in Northeast waters in recent weeks. The entire population was last estimated to number around 366 animals. Right whales typically appear in Cape Cod Bay during the spring, but in recent years they have been showing up sooner and lingering longer, according to a summary released April 15 by NMFS. A small portion of the whale population, mostly pregnant females, migrates to waters off Georgia and northern Florida for the winter calving season, according to marine mammal researcher Tim Cole who leads the NEFSC whale survey team. They track the rest of the population, “and have found them so far this year in large numbers on Nantucket Shoals south of Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket, and in Cape Cod Bay,” said Cole. Right whales follow their food sources during the season and have been seen surface feeding around Cape Cod, according to the Massachusetts Division of Marine Fisheries and the Provincetown, Mass., based nonprofit Coastal Research Center which jointly conduct survey flights. Their findings led Massachusetts officials to extend a 10-knot speed limit on small craft in Cape Cod Bay and fishing trap gear restrictions through mid-May. With a series of right whale deaths in Canadian and U.S. waters during 2017, NMFS declared an “unusual mortality event" that has tallied 34 dead and 15 seriously injured right whales. Ship strikes and fishing gear entanglement are the biggest threats and NMFS is implementing new lobster trap gear rules in U.S. waters to meet a May 31 federal court deadline.
Maine fishing interests seek total ban on offshore wind energy - More than 60 commercial fishermen and their supporters testified Tuesday in favor of a bill that would block any attempt to develop offshore wind projects anywhere along the Maine coast. The bill would prohibit any state agency from permitting or approving any offshore wind energy project regardless of its location. It was introduced by Rep. Billy Bob Faulkingham, R-Winter Harbor, a commercial fisherman, and co-sponsored by eight other Republican lawmakers. The testimony on L.D. 101 from lobstermen, their families and town officials from fishing communities drew a clear line in the sand: Any offshore wind development, they told told lawmakers on the Energy, Utilities and Technology Committee, would threaten the very survival of their iconic industry and way of life. In his testimony, Faulkingham said offshore wind was the worst kind of green energy, and went on to list examples that, in some instances, conflated fact and opinion. He said offshore wind was three-to-five times more expensive than market prices, which may have been a reference to a single state-approved contract for the power from a demonstration project off Monhegan. He said offshore wind farms would cover 850 square miles, four times larger than Casco Bay, an apparent reference to a megawatt target set by an ocean energy task force in 2009. He said offshore wind would enrich foreign corporations with taxpayer money, without noting that the private partnership behind the Monhegan project is investing $100 million on top of $47 million in federal grants. And he called nuclear power and Canadian hydro better options, ignoring the steep opposition and multibillion-dollar cost overruns associated with nuclear power and the ongoing fight over building a transmission line through western Maine from Quebec.
Will Okla. disrupt Biden's 100% clean energy goal? -- Thursday, May 6, 2021 -- Reaching President Biden's goal of 100% clean electricity by 2035 would require a massive shift away from fossil fuels across the U.S. — including in red states. As Oklahoma shows, that may not be easy. The state's natural gas devotion is setting up a potential clash with the White House and environmental groups as Biden eyes climate action through a flurry of executive orders and his $2.2 trillion infrastructure plan. But while Oklahoma's approach to electricity isn't aimed at meeting the Biden administration's decarbonization goals, state leaders are still betting they can foster renewables and slash emissions while keeping the lights on. Just don't expect Oklahomans to stop relying on natural gas for power anytime soon. Oklahoma depends mostly on a blend of generation fueled by natural gas and wind, and it's part of a multistate grid managed by the Southwest Power Pool. While Texas was hammered by long outages in February as power supplies fell short of demand in a cold blast, residents in Oklahoma generally saw short interruptions in electric service tied to controlled outages during that extreme period. But Oklahoma did see extraordinary gas costs estimated at $3 billion to $4.5 billion, according to Wagner. He said the state is investigating why gas prices rose during the storm, and it is turning to low-interest financing to help smooth out some potential bill impacts on residents over time. Oklahoma leaders don't want a big price spike to happen again, but they also don't want to give up on natural gas. Wagner, a former senior adviser to the administrator at EPA, described Oklahoma as a "pioneer" in energy and said hydrogen development may be another area for future growth. He said hydrogen and gas are complementary in terms of production and power generation. For now, Oklahoma can point to carbon-cutting accomplishments from its evolving generation mix. That includes a roughly 34% drop in CO2 emissions from the state's power sector from 2005 to 2018, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration cited by Wagner's office. EIA often reports that Oklahoma has among the lowest average residential power prices in the country, but it had some of the highest electricity prices in February. Johnson Bridgwater, director of the Oklahoma Chapter of the Sierra Club, said the February freeze showed natural gas wasn't reliable or affordable. "We have been brainwashed in Oklahoma," Bridgwater said. "We have drunk the Kool-Aid of fossil fuels."
Deaths linked to soot from gas, biomass overtake coal -- Wednesday, May 5, 2021 --Coal-fired power generation and its notoriously dirty emissions are rapidly declining, but the potential health gains from cleaner air are being stymied by biomass burning and combustion sources, Harvard University researchers found in a new study. The study, published online today in the journal Environmental Research Letters, examines the number of early deaths linked to soot from power plants, boilers and other stationary combustion sources from 2008 through 2017. As coal-fired electricity plants steadily retired during that time, the share of premature deaths linked to soot from sources like natural gas-fired power plants, wood stoves and industrial boilers that burn wood pellets climbed to an estimated 70% or so of the total, the paper found. And in California, Virginia and at least 17 other states, the number of early deaths linked to gas-fired emissions outpaced those attributable to coal in 2017, according to the findings. "When you swap one combustion fuel for another, that is not the pathway to a healthy energy system," said Jonathan Buonocore, a research scientist at Harvard's T.H. Chan School of Public Health and the study's lead author, during a phone interview yesterday. The paper suggests that increased reliance on solar power and other zero-emission energy sources is needed to avoid changes that will later become "regrettable assets." Their findings also raise questions about an industry-backed campaign on Capitol Hill to spur the use of wood pellets and other forms of biomass by treating them as neutral in terms of their contribution to greenhouse gas releases. The current annual appropriations act, for example, instructs EPA and the Agriculture Department to pursue policies that "reflect the carbon-neutrality of forest bioenergy and recognize biomass as a renewable energy source." But aside from greenhouse gases, biomass-related emissions from those sources have "fairly large" effects on human health, Buonocore said. "In order to continue the decrease in air pollution-related health impacts, now would be a good time to start paying attention to those types of sources," he said. Supporting the research was the Rocky Mountain Institute, which advocates for a zero-carbon global energy system and the Login5 Foundation.
Cleaner ‘Bridge’ Fuels Are Killing Up To 46,000 Americans Per Year, Study Shows --Burning natural gas and wood instead of coal was supposed to be a bridge to a safer future, where heat and electricity came from sources that didn’t generate as much pollution. But new research suggests the alternative fuels are less of a bridge and more of a staircase. A new Harvard University study found that, in at least 19 states plus Washington, D.C., burning gas now kills more people than coal because of exposure to a deadly type of fine particulate matter known as PM2.5 that lingers in the air and lodges in lung tissue. The study, published Wednesday in the journal Environmental Research Letters, found 47,000 to 69,000 premature deaths each year that could be attributed to emissions from things like buildings, power generators and industrial boilers. Of that, fumes from gas, wood and biomass were responsible for between 29,000 and 46,000 deaths. “If you swap out one combustion fuel for another, that’s not a pathway toward a healthy energy system,” said Harvard research scientist Jonathan Buonocore, paper’s lead author. “This is showing that even with the transition from coal to gas, there are remaining impacts.” The findings do highlight the benefits of eliminating coal. In 2008, when coal produced nearly half the nation’s electricity, emissions from the power sector caused between 59,000 and 66,000 premature deaths. By 2017, that fell to 10,000 to 12,000 deaths. Along with fewer deaths came drops in U.S. output of climate-changing carbon, since gas produces roughly half the CO2 of coal. But other recent studies have cast doubt over those climate benefits. U.S. output of carbon dioxide, the primary gas causing climate change, fell 10% between 2000 to 2018 as the electricity sector’s emissions dropped 23%, mostly thanks to coal plants retiring. But if the new fleet of gas plants built over the past decade last as long and are fired up as often as the coal units they replaced, the projected emissions for the U.S. power sector over those generators’ lifespan will decrease climate-changing pollutants by just 12%, a study published last year in the journal AGU Advances found. Add to that the higher-end estimates of how much methane, a potent heat-trapping gas and the main ingredient in natural gas, leaks during production and burning, and even those reductions are effectively eliminated, the study indicated. In response to growing climate concerns and cheaper renewables, utilities are now publicly considering phasing out gas plants before their expiration dates.
Senate Republicans threaten to cut state parks funding over 'clean cars' rule -Minnesota's state parks could shut down in July if the Walz administration does not bow to demands by Senate Republicans to drop plans for new "clean cars" emissions standards.Along with parks, much of the environmental arm of state government would shut down over the impasse, which flared up during a conference committee meeting Tuesday on the Senate's proposed omnibus environment budget.If passed, the Senate's version of the omnibus environment bill would slash tens of millions of dollars in environmental funding on a variety of projects, from combating chronic wasting disease in deer and the decline in pollinators to cleaning up forever chemicals in water supplies.Sen. Bill Ingebrigtsen, R-Alexandria, told the committee it is the only budget he will consider, and that he will not pass anything at all unless the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA) rule-making on clean cars is stopped."We are an outlier," Ingebrigtsen told the committee. "We're the only ones in the Midwest that's moving forward with this. It's very maddening for me and I think it is for a lot of folks."He and Rep. Josh Heintzeman, R-Nisswa, accused the MPCA of being unwilling to compromise on the controversial emissions-cutting program. The agency should have brought it to the Legislature, The new rule, similar to one in California and more than a dozen other states, aims to help drive down heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions from transportation by requiring automakers to increase deliveries of electric vehicles to Minnesota for sale. DFL Gov. Tim Walz directed the MPCA to develop the rule as part of his emphasis on addressing climate change and the need to cut global warming gases.Rep. Rick Hansen, DFL-South St. Paul, reiterated the ultimatum for clarity: "So, if there's not a repeal of the authority for the Clean Car rule-making coming out of this conference committee, then the budgets for BWSR [the Minnesota Board of Water & Soil Resources], the Minnesota Zoo, the LCCR [Legislative-Citizen Commission on Minnesota Resources], the Conservation Corps, the Science Museum … the MPCA and the DNR [Department of Natural Resources] will not happen, unless we accede to the Senate position, is that correct Senator Ingebrigtsen?""That's exactly correct," Ingebrigtsen replied. "I think we can move forward, but it's going to have to be with that understanding."
1 in 5 electric vehicle owners in California switched back to gas because charging their cars is a hassle, new research shows In roughly three minutes, you can fill the gas tank of a Ford Mustang and have enough range to go about 300 miles with its V8 engine. But for the electric Mustang Mach-E, an hour plugged into a household outlet gave Bloomberg automotive analyst Kevin Tynan just three miles of range. "Overnight, we're looking at 36 miles of range," he told Insider. "Before I gave it back to Ford, because I wanted to give it back full, I drove it to the office and plugged in at the charger we have there." Standard home outlets generally put out about 120 volts of power at what electric vehicle aficionados call "Level 1" charging, while the high-powered specialty connections offer 240 volts of power and are known as "Level 2." By comparison, Tesla's "Superchargers," which can fully charge its cars in a little over an hour, offer 480 volts of direct current. That difference is night and day, according to a new study published in the journal Nature Energy by University of California Davis researchers Scott Hardman and Gil Tal that surveyed Californians who purchased an electric vehicle between 2012 and 2018. Roughly one in five plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) owners switched back to owning gas-powered cars, in large part because charging the batteries was a pain in the… trunk, the researchers found. Of those who switched, over 70% lacked access to Level 2 charging at home, and slightly fewer than that lacked Level 2 connections at their workplace. "If you don't have a Level 2, it's almost impossible," said Tynan, who has tested a wide range of makes and models of PEVs over the years for his research. Even with the faster charging, a Chevy Bolt he tested still needed nearly six hours to top its range back up to 300 miles from nearly empty — something that takes him just minutes at the pump with his family SUV. Public charging stations may look like the electric version of the gas station, but nearly two-thirds of PEV drivers in the survey said they didn't use them. Exactly why they didn't use the public stalls was not specified.
Electric Car-Charging Business Is Doing Everything But Profiting - President Joe Biden’s plan to wean U.S. drivers off fossil fuels requires massive investment in public charging stations to power the electric-car revolution. So far, none of the companies that deploy the equipment has figured out how to make a profit.The dilemma boils down to demand, and there’s a certain chicken-and-egg quality to it. Most electric-vehicle drivers charge their cars at home, so manypublic charging stations get little use. But lots of people still driving gasoline-powered cars won’t consider going electric until they see charging stations widely deployed, for fear that they will run out of juice on the road.Speculators are piling into the industry, convinced that boom times are around the corner, while short sellers and other skeptics warn that some of these companies will go belly-up long before they figure out how to make money. Biden’s plan to spend $15 billion to help create 500,000 more public stations by 2030 is feeding the optimism, with investors flocking to EV charging companies since his election. The risk is that the early movers will get badly burned, potentially souring capital markets on the industry for years to come.“It’s definitely going to require years of investment before they get any return,” said Chris Nelder, who has studied the economics of charging for the RMI energy research institute.Nelder is sure that electric-vehicle charging will eventually be profitable. But when that tipping point will arrive is one of the biggest questions hanging over charging companies.A decade into its existence, the industry is still hunting for a winning business model. Two of the more established names, Blink Charging Co. andBeam Global, made less than $10 million in revenue last year. That didn’t stop investors from sending Blink shares up more than 500% after Biden’s November win, and while it has come well off its peak the company’s market valuation is still north of $1.6 billion. Beam jumped more than 300%, though it has lost about half its value this year.Fueling cars and trucks has always been a low-margin business, with gasoline stations making much of their money from selling snacks, coffee and cigarettes. The business is even tougher when it comes to EVs. Unless they live in dense cities like New York or San Francisco, drivers do the vast majority of charging at home -- their garage is their gas station. They use public chargers infrequently, with most vehicles offering more than enough range to complete daily errands without a topoff. The U.S. Department of Energy estimates that 80% of EV charging happens at home.
$73 Billion Clean Bus Plan Unveiled by Senators Brown, Schumer -As scientific studies continue to show the necessity of sweeping societal reforms to reduce planet-heating emissions, U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer joined with Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee Chair Sherrod Brown on Tuesday to unveil a plan — backed by green groups and union leaders — that would invest $73 billion in electrifying public transit."Today, there are approximately 70,000 mass transit buses and 85,000 cutaway vehicles and transit vans in America. Approximately 2% of those buses are zero-emission vehicles," according to a summary documentfrom the senators. "The federal government can and should be in the business of aiding transit agencies in shifting their bus fleets to zero emissions."The Clean Transit for America Plan from Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Brown (D-Ohio) is intended to not only combat the climate emergency and improve air quality with zero-emission fleets, but also establish a workforce training program that will create well-paying union jobs. Schumer said he intends to ensure it is included in the American Jobs Plan, part of President Joe Biden's recently introduced infrastructure proposal."To reduce the carbon in our atmosphere and address the climate crisis, we must transform our transit system," declared the Senate majority leader. "The Clean Transit for America proposal will replace dirty, diesel-spewing buses, create new American jobs, help save the planet, and protect public health, particularly in our country's most vulnerable communities." Brown asserted that "Americans deserve world-class public transportation that is delivered with modern, zero-emission buses built by American workers," and their plan "is the kind of transformative investment we need in public transit that will put Americans to work, connects people with opportunity, and invests in the communities that have been left on their own by Washington and Wall Street for too long."
Midwest farmers look to plow through Biden’s electric-vehicle push - President Joe Biden’s infrastructure plan outlines his vision for a low-emissions future based on massive investments in electric cars. The biofuels industry wants Biden to bankroll them, too. Corn growers and producers of ethanol — the corn-based renewable fuel that has long enjoyed special status as a government-mandated ingredient in gasoline — would get only a tiny slice of the funds proposed in the infrastructure package, despite Biden’s assurances that he views them as key to reducing dependence on fossil fuels. So now they’re turning to their traditional allies in Congress to get themselves written in.“To not see [biofuels] listed as part of an infrastructure piece, I’m hoping is just an oversight and a misunderstanding — because I know that there’s support for it,” said Rep. Cindy Axne, the only Democrat in Iowa’s congressional delegation. As co-chair of the Congressional Biofuels Caucus, she introduced legislation, H.R. 1542 (117), in March to expand access to higher blends.The pushback illustrates the political challenge facing Biden as vehicle technology changes and environmental concerns mount. The biofuels industry is influential among both Democratic and Republican lawmakers from farm states.Ethanol production supports more than 300,000 jobs concentrated in rural areas and added about $43 billion to U.S. economic output in 2019, according to the Renewable Fuels Association, a lobby group for ethanol producers. Reminders of its political importance come every four years, as presidential candidates in both parties fawn over ethanol during the primary campaigns ahead of the crucial Iowa caucuses.“In the long run, ethanol’s a dead-end fuel,” said Scott Faber, head of government affairs at the Environmental Working Group. In the interim, Faber said, ethanol is still useful while the transportation sector is dependent on gasoline and other liquid fuel.
American drivers are saving the corn ethanol industry–for now --In late April, 2020, as the pandemic descended on the US, demand for gasoline crashed to historic lows. Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), the agricultural commodities giant, decided to idle two of the country’s biggest plants producing corn-based ethanol mixed into oil-based fuels to reduce their carbon intensity. ADM’s chief biofuels rival, POET Inc., also shut down several plants. Overall, the bio-fuel accounts for about 10% of every gallon of gas pumped in the US.A year later, American drivers are back at the gas pump, and ethanol plants are back online. ADM re-opened its plants in early April; POET’s plants re-opened in August 2020 but only hit full production capacity in April. Then, just as ethanol’s road ahead was beginning to look clear, another unanticipated obstacle emerged: the spot price of its key ingredient corn surged to its highest levels in a decade in May.Between April 1 and May 4, the price of corn jumped 28% to $7.30 per bushel, the biggest monthly gain in a decade. The resurgence of ethanol refining is only part of the reason (30%-40% of US corn ends up as ethanol). An even bigger reason is that corn imports by China are now hitting record highs as the country’s economy recovers from the pandemic.US farmers, the world’s top corn exporters, won’t begin to harvest until August, and global supplies are already short as as a result of drought conditions in Brazil and Argentina. The price is likely to stay elevated at least through the fall. If summer heatwaves depress the Midwest harvest, said Naomi Blohm, a senior market adviser at Total Farm Marketing, a consulting firm in Wisconsin, prices could climb higher still.For US farmers, it’s a windfall, Blohm said, especially because the pandemic wiped out two key markets—ethanol and Chinese imports—after a relatively rich harvest in 2019 left them with billions of bushels gathering dust in silos.“Farmers were on the verge of the crappiest price in fifteen years,” she said. “But this is crazy money, ridiculous wonderful money.” Corn prices north of $6 per bushel would not normally be good news for ethanol producers, however, Blohm said. But this year, the outlook for fuel demand seems to be strong enough to outweigh that concern. “Most plants’ profit margins are still positive and certainly better than a year ago,” said Nicholas Paulson, an agricultural economist at the University of Illinois. “We’re seeing ethanol prices that are able to cover the high cost of corn.”
ELECTRIC VEHICLES: Automakers: States 'unlikely to reach' 2035 gas-free goal -- Wednesday, May 5, 2021 -- The auto industry's largest trade group challenged 11 governors who are calling for a national phase-out of gasoline cars to put clean vehicles on their own roads first.
Electric vehicles and renewables will need a dramatic rise in mineral supply, IEA warns - The supply of critical minerals crucial for technologies such as wind turbines and electric vehicles will have to be ramped up over the next decades if the planet's climate targets are to be met, according to the International Energy Agency. A new report from the Paris-based organization, published Wednesday and entitled "The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions," focuses on the importance of nickel, cobalt, lithium, copper and rare earth elements. In a statement accompanying the report's release, the IEA outlined how much the need for these materials could increase going forward. "Demand outlooks and supply vulnerabilities vary widely by mineral," it said, "but the energy sector's overall needs for critical minerals could increase by as much as six times by 2040, depending on how rapidly governments act to reduce emissions." In a sign of how the shift to renewable energy installations will increase the pressure on critical mineral supplies, the IEA said an onshore wind plant needed "nine times more mineral resources than a similarly sized gas-fired power plant." Around the world, governments are laying out targets to cut emissions and increase renewable energy installations, with a number aiming to use wind and solar energy as a crucial tool in their pivot away from fossil fuels. The reality on the ground shows that for many countries, any such move will be a significant challenge requiring a huge amount of change. Despite the size of the task, slowly but surely, some shifts are taking place. At the end of April, for instance, the U.S. Department of Energy said it had awarded $19 million of funding to 13 projects focused on the production of rare earth elements and critical minerals. The projects will be located in what the DOE described as "traditionally fossil fuel-producing communities." Rare earth elements and critical minerals, it added, were "vital to the manufacturing of batteries, magnets, and other components important to the clean energy economy." With demand for these materials only set to increase, there will be a number of hurdles to overcome. For its part, the IEA highlighted a number of potential challenges. These include supply chains described as being "complex and sometimes opaque"; the high concentration of materials in a small number of countries; tougher environmental and social standards being expected of producers; and a drop in the quality of available deposits. "Today, the data shows a looming mismatch between the world's strengthened climate ambitions and the availability of critical minerals that are essential to realising those ambitions," Fatih Birol, the IEA's executive director, said in a statement. "The challenges are not insurmountable, but governments must give clear signals about how they plan to turn their climate pledges into action,"
World faces 'looming mismatch' between energy transition and critical mineral supply: IEA -Progress on the world’s rising climate action ambitions could be undermined by a shortage of some of the critical minerals used in clean-energy technologies including wind turbines, solar farms and electric vehicles (EVs), unless governments act now to head-off a “looming mismatch” in supply and demand, according to a far-reaching report from the International Energy Agency (IEA).The special report, which trained a spotlight on the “central importance” of minerals such as copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt and rare-earths in a “secure and rapid transformation of the global energy sector”, found that while the “challenges are not insurmountable, governments must give clear signals about how they plan to turn their climate pledges into action” to avoid future market pinchpoints.'Resilience and hope': renewables roar ahead with new record build-out: Irena “Today, the data shows a looming mismatch between the world’s strengthened climate ambitions and the availability of critical minerals that are essential to realising those ambitions,” said IEA executive director Fatih Birol, in a statement in advance of the launch ofThe Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions.“By acting now and acting together, [international governments] can significantly reduce the risks of price volatility and supply disruptions.“Left unaddressed, these potential vulnerabilities could make global progress towards a clean-energy future slower and more costly – and therefore hamper international efforts to tackle climate change.”Demand outlooks and supply vulnerabilities “vary widely” by mineral, but the energy sector’s overall appetite for critical minerals could grow six-fold by 2040, according to the IEA, “depending on how rapidly governments act to reduce emissions”.“Not only is this a massive increase in absolute terms, but as the costs of technologies fall, mineral inputs will account for an increasingly important part of the value of key components, making their overall costs more vulnerable to potential mineral price swings,” said Birol.He added: “This is what energy security looks like in the 21st century”, adding the IEA was “fully committed” to helping governments make sure “these hazards don’t derail the global drive to accelerate energy transitions”.The report, part of the IEA’s World Energy Outlook series, stressed that the mineral demands of a renewables-power e nergy would “differ profoundly” from one run on fossil fuels, noting that an onshore wind plant needs “nine times more mineral resources than a similarly sized gas-fired power plant”, while EVs requires six times the quantities of minerals used in internal combustion engine-driven car.
Leaked docs: Gas industry secretly fights electrification -- Monday, May 3, 2021 In public, Eversource Energy likes to tout its carbon neutrality goals and its investments in offshore wind. But officials from New England's largest utility struck a different tone during an industry presentation in mid-March. Instead of advocating for lower emissions, company officials outlined a defensive strategy for preserving the use of natural gas for years to come. Natural gas is "in for [the] fight of it's life," said one slide presented at the meeting and obtained by E&E News. It also called for a lobbying campaign, saying that "everyone needs to contact legislators in favor of NG." Another slide asked how the industry could "take advantage of power outage fear" to bolster gas's fortunes.Eversource is identified in the presentation materials as the co-leader of a national "Consortium to Combat Electrification," run out of the Energy Solutions Center, a trade group based in Washington. The slides identified 14 other utilities involved in the effort and said the group's mission was to "create effective, customizable marketing materials to fight the electrification/anti-natural gas movement." The presentation comes amid a rising tide of policies aimed at banning natural gas in buildings. Eversource executives sought to distance themselves from the messages conveyed in the presentation, saying they don't reflect the views of the utility's leadership. Yet the company's private assessment, delivered to industry insiders, underscores the challenge facing gas providers as state and federal policymakers set their sights on net-zero emissions targets. More than 40 cities in California have taken steps to restrict gas use in new buildings. Seattle followed suit in February. Massachusetts looks like the next battleground. The state recently enacted a climate law to eliminate greenhouse gases by 2050. When Massachusetts regulators mapped out a path to zero emissions late last year, they concluded that swapping out oil- and gas-fueled furnaces, boilers and water heaters for electric alternatives constituted the most cost-effective strategy. That represents a potential threat to companies like Eversource, which last year paid $1.1 billion to acquire the Massachusetts-based assets of Columbia Gas, a subsidiary of NiSource Inc.
Drax to build three new pellet plants in Arkansas --Drax Group will begin constructing the first of three new ‘satellite’ pellet plants in Arkansas. The three plants are together expected to produce around 120,000 tonnes of sustainable biomass pellets annually from sawmill residues, supporting the company’s plans to increase self-supply to its power station in Yorkshire, UK. Drax will begin construction of the first plant later this month near a West Fraser sawmill in Grant County, with commissioning expected in October. The firm will begin construction on two more plants in other locations in the coming months. In total, Drax will invest $40 million (€33 million) in the state, creating around 30 new direct jobs and many more indirect jobs across three Arkansas communities. Will Gardiner, Drax Group CEO, said: “By building these new pellet plants Drax is bringing jobs and opportunities to rural communities in Arkansas, boosting the state’s post-COVID economic recovery. “Through this investment, Arkansas will play an important role in combating climate change, supporting Drax to increase the amount of sustainable biomass we produce as part of our plans to pioneer bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). “By using sustainable biomass, we have displaced coal-fired power generation, reduced carbon emissions and provided renewable electricity for millions of homes and businesses in the UK.”
Louisiana To Develop A $700M Renewable Diesel Plant -Governor Edwards announced plans for a $700 million renewable diesel refinery in Caldwell Parish this past week. He, along with CEO Paul Schubert of Strategic Biofuels LLC, made an announcement that the company’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Louisiana Green Fuels, will develop the plant near Columbia, LA. The plant will be on a 171-acre site at the Port of Columbia and produce up to 32 million gallons of renewable fuels annually.Louisiana Green Fuels will do this through established refinery processes with wood waste as the feedstock. It’s completing feasibility and financing phases for the project with the anticipation of a final investment decision by late 2022.Louisiana Green Fuels will make a capital investment of at least $700 million through the project. Along with the cash, 76 new direct jobs will be created. These jobs will have an annual salary of over $68,000 along with benefits. Louisiana Economic Development (LED) estimated that the project will result in an additional 412 new indirect jobs — totaling almost 500 new jobs in Caldwell Parish. The building phase is planned to take at least 30 months and will generate another 450 construction jobs. “Louisiana Green Fuels is an example of how our state can merge traditional and emerging forms of energy in exciting ways to address climate change,” said Governor Edwards. “The company has engaged Justiss Oil of Jena to drill a sequestration test well that will confirm the integrity of carbon storage a mile below the earth’s surface. This project would boost our state’s forestry sector by harvesting timber byproducts in a sustainable fashion, and the refinery’s renewable diesel output would be accomplished in a carbon-negative fashion. That means this refinery would achieve better than net-zero emissions – it would actually remove more carbon from the environment than it produces.”
Gas-Loving Texans Pile Into Home Solar, Batteries After Freeze - When blackouts hit Houston last February, Rob and Robin Dickehuth’s home became a port in the storm for neighbors, thanks to a $35,000 solar and battery system that kept windows aglow and devices fully charged. “We were pretty much the only home on the block with light,” Rob said. “I think this was a hard lesson for a lot of people in Texas.” Three months after the energy crisis that left millions without power, heat and water for days, demand for back-up electricity systems like the Dickehuth’s is skyrocketing. Freedom Solar, which installs home solar and storage, has seen sales of Tesla Powerwall batteries jump 16-fold, while Greater Texas Solar saw a 25% jump in sales after the freeze. “During the freeze, people lost faith in the grid and they lost faith in low electricity prices,” said Freedom Solar Chief Executive Officer Bret Biggart. “How do you hedge against that type of uncertainty? With solar and battery technology.” The clamor for solar and storage strikes an odd chord in fossil fuel-loving Texas, where politicians were quick to blame the blackouts on the intermittency of renewables. Even as it became clear that shuttered gas plants and fuel shortages drove the outages, lawmakers have continued to target wind and solar in their efforts to reform the state’s power system. But Texans looking for insurance against the next crisis are decidedly apolitical when it comes to keeping the lights on. “It speaks to the fact that people don’t have confidence in the state,” said Adrian Shelley, director of consumer advocate Public Citizen’s Texas office. “That’s a very Texan way of looking at the problem – I’m going to build my own grid.” Greater Texas Solar is capitalizing on that by promoting a solar and battery storage system that’s backed up with propane-fired generators – a uniquely Texan solution. During a power failure, part of the electricity created by the propane generator can also be used to charge the battery system for later use. Those with the system can run on “island mode” for days, if needed, said co-owner Bill Skinner. “It’s fairly new to have batteries and generators paired together,” said Skinner. “They’re trying to merge all these technologies together to create independence from the grid. And that’s what everyone is after -- autonomy.”
80% Of U.S. Coal Plants Are Uneconomic As Renewables Costs Drop - As much as 80 percent of the coal-fired power plants in the United States are already uneconomic compared to new wind and solar projects, energy and climate policy think tank Energy Innovation said in new research this week.The combined costs for fuel, maintenance, and other costs at most operating coal power plants in the U.S are higher than the all-in costs of new solar and wind projects because of the cost declines of wind and solar generation, Energy Innovation said.The think tank’s report, The Coal Cost Crossover 2.0, compares the economics of each U.S. coal-fired power plant against the expected economics of potential new wind and solar plants nearby, using publicly available data.“Out of the 235 plants in the U.S. coal fleet, 182 plants, or 80 percent, are uneconomic or already retiring,” Energy Innovation said.The key findings of the report show that of existing U.S. coal capacity, 72 percent is either more costly to operate than new nearby wind and solar or is slated to retire by 2025. Of the existing U.S. coal-fired plants, 80 percent are more costly to operate than new nearby wind and solar plants or are slated to retire by 2025.Coal-fired power generation has been on a decline for a decade, as cheap natural gas from the U.S. shale plays first started competing with coal for power plants, and then falling wind and solar costs started to make new renewable energy projects more competitive than coal. Renewables—mostly solar and wind—are set to account for more than two-thirds of the new electricity generation capacity that the United States will install in 2021, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in a forecast early this year. At the same time, due to higher natural gas production and increased natural gas-powered generation, coal-fired electricity generation capacity continues to retire in the United States.
As deaths from burning coal decline, natural gas now a leading hazard, study shows - Pollution from natural gas is now responsible for more deaths and greater health costs than coal in Illinois, according to a new study highlighting another hazard of burning fossil fuels that are scrambling the planet’s climate. Researchers at Harvard University found that a shift away from coal during the past decade saved thousands of lives and dramatically reduced health impacts from breathing particulate matter, commonly known as soot. But the numbers declined only slightly for gas, another fossil fuel that by 2017 accounted for the greatest health risks. About half the deaths from soot exposure that year can be attributed to the state’s reliance on gas to heat homes and businesses, the study found. Coal is more deadly only when used to generate electricity. The alarming findings raise questions about whether Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s proposed transition to a zero-carbon economy would move fast enough in phasing out the use of gas — not only to blunt the impacts of climate change but also to ensure Illinoisans breathe clean air. Chicago appears to be locked into a gas-dependent future. Peoples Gas is charging its customers $7.7 billion during the next two decades to replace aging distribution lines throughout the city, even though an accelerating shift to renewable energy could make the project obsolete before it’s completed. “What the Harvard researchers found shows we need to stop burning things,” said Brady Anne Seals, manager of the carbon-free buildings program at the Rocky Mountain Institute, a nonprofit research group that helped finance the pollution study. “We don’t have the luxury of time any more to meet our climate goals. Then there are these health impacts people are feeling right now.”Soot is considered one of the most harmful forms of air pollution, in particular tiny particles invisible to the human eye that can lodge deep in the lungs and penetrate the bloodstream. Breathing even small amounts can inflame the lungs and trigger asthma attacks, researchers have found. Multiple studies link soot exposure with heart attacks and premature death.
Northern Appalachia Q1 coal production rises 15.3% from Q4: MSHA | S&P Global Platts Northern Appalachia coal production in the first quarter jumped to 24.31 million st, up 15.3% from 21.09 million st in Q4 and 12.1% from 21.7 million st produced in the year-ago quarter, US Mines Safety and Health Administration data showed May 5. But the latest quarter was down 4.7% from the five-year average for the corresponding quarter. Roughly 98% of the production, or 23.83 million st, was bituminous coal, while the remaining 487,656 st was anthracite. In Q4, bituminous coal made up 97.4%, and anthracite production was 555,989 st, while in Q1 2020, bituminous output was at 96.9%, and the remaining 662,113 st was anthracite. Underground mine production was at 22.77 million st in Q1, up from 19.59 million st in Q4 and 19.77 million st in the year-ago quarter. Consol Energy's Bailey underground mine in Greene County, Pennsylvania, was the largest mine in the region, with Q1 output totaling 3.78 million st, up from 3.05 million st in Q4 and 2.8 million st in the year-ago quarter. After the Bailey mine was American Consolidated Natural Resources' (formerly Murray Energy) Marshall County underground mine in West Virginia, which produced 2.78 million st in Q1, up from 2.15 million st in Q4 and 2.16 million st in Q1 2020. Rounding out the top three was Consol's Enlow Fork mine, which produced 2 million st, up from 1.64 million st in Q4, but down from 2.37 million st in the year-ago quarter. Of the top 20 producing mines, 16 saw quarterly increases in Q1, with Bailey and Marshall County seeing the largest increases. Just seven of the top 20 mines saw a year-on-year decrease, but Enlow Fork was the only one of the top 10 mines with a decline. ACNR remains the largest NAPP coal producer Six companies — ACNR, Consol, Alliance, Iron Senergy, Arch Resources, and Rosebud Mining — each produced more than 1 million st of coal in Q1 and combined to produce 22.17 million st, up from 19.15 million st in Q4 and 18.86 million st in the year-ago quarter. ACNR, the largest underground miner in the US, produced 8.6 million st in Q1, up from 7.1 million st in Q4 and 6.76 million st in the year-ago quarter. The company's six mines each ranked in the top 12 NAPP mines in Q1. Consol produced a quarterly record 7.02 million st of NAPP coal in Q1, up from 5.88 million st in Q4 and 5.97 million st in the year-ago quarter. Surface production in Northern Appalachia was at 1.54 million st in Q1, up from 1.5 million st in Q4, but down from 1.93 million st in the year-ago quarter. Robindale Energy was the largest surface mine producer in the region, with output of 190,505 st in Q1, up from 179,050 st in Q4, but down from 200,847 st a year ago.
Bechtel reaches construction milestone at Southern Company's $25B Vogtle nuclear plant - Bechtel achieved a major construction milestone at the Vogtle Electric Generating Plant near Waynesboro, Georgia, last week when it set into place a passive containment cooling water tank. This, according to Bechtel, is the last major lift at the two-unit nuclear power plant, which is operated by Southern Nuclear, a subsidiary of Southern Co. Brian Reilly, project director for Bechtel, said setting the tank in place represents the topping out of Unit 4's shield building. The passive containment cooling water tank measures 35 feet tall and has an 85-foot outer diameter. The tank module, which includes outfitting and rigging, weighs 360 tons. The Vogtle plants' Units 3 and 4 are the only two nuclear power plants under construction in the U.S. Bechtel said it has had more than 7,000 workers on the jobsite, which, counting the permanent jobs that have been created, makes Vogtle the largest jobs-producing construction project in the state of Georgia. Bechtel has performed either the construction or engineering for more than 80% of the nuclear plants in the U.S. DVI, a Dominion Energy subsidiary and industry leader in advanced VVO, enables utilities to enhance DER hosting capacity, energy efficiency and demand response.Bechtel said the first of 1,485 major unit modules arrived on the Vogtle site in 2011, while the last reached the project in 2019. All modules were manufactured offsite and arrived at the project ready to be assembled into larger modules that make up each of the two units. The modules included plant components like floor and wall sections, as well as the supporting structures that surround the containment buildings and reactor vessels. The Westinghouse AP1000 units the company is using are the first to be built in the U.S. Bechtel said the AP1000 plant's passive safety systems require no operator actions to mitigate potential emergency situations, because they use only natural forces such as gravity, natural circulation and compressed gas to achieve their safety function. No pumps, fans, diesels, chillers or other active machinery are used, except for a few simple valves that automatically align and actuate the passive safety systems.The tank will hold approximately 750,000 gallons of cooling water ready to flow down into the containment vessel in an emergency to help cool the reactor, even if external power is lost. The water can also be directed to top off the spent fuel pool, while the tank itself can be refilled from water stored elsewhere on site.
FEATURE: US nuclear power plant retirement risk fluctuates with policy, power prices | S&P Global Platts — With a nuclear power plant prematurely retired in New York April 30 and the fate of two other plants in Illinois hanging in balance, the complexion of the US nuclear power fleet is in flux at a time when CO2 emissions reduction is high on the national agenda. Currently, just more than 8 GW of nuclear capacity is slated for retirement, with S&P Global Platts Analytics assessing roughly 5 GW of nuclear capacity at high risk of retirement before license expiration. Assuming the high risk and announced retirements were to be replaced by natural gas-fired generation with an average heat rate of 7,000 Btu/kWh, an incremental 1.9 Bcf/d of power burn would result from replacing these retired generators, equivalent to about 39 million mt/year of CO2 emissions, or 2% of 2016 levels, according to Platts Analytics. The analysts track nuclear plant retirement risk based on power market conditions, operating license status, policy changes and other factors. Specifically, plants are categorized from high to low risk, factoring in which units could potentially benefit from state-funded financial support or measures that price carbon emissions.The 1,041-MW Indian Point Unit 3 in Buchanan, New York, about 20 miles north of New York City, shut down permanently on April 30 after succumbing to political and economic pressure. Governor Andrew Cuomo and environmental groups including Riverkeeper fought for years to shut the plant on safety grounds, arguing an accident so close to the global financial industry in the city would be catastrophic, among other concerns. "Since my time as Attorney General, I have been deeply concerned with the safety of the Indian Point nuclear power facility," Cuomo said in an April 29 statement, adding the plant does not belong "in close proximity to the most densely populated area in the country." The plant's owner, Entergy, said Indian Point was struggling financially amid lower wholesale power prices, largely due to abundant shale gas that has led natural gas prices to average around $2/MMBtu for an extended period.
NRC backs Dominion Energy's application to extend Surry's two nuclear reactor units by 20 years -e staff of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission has backed Dominion Energy’s application to extend operations at its Surry Power Station by 20 years, into the 2050s. The move means that Dominion’s nuclear power plant in Surry County has been certified for an 80-year lifespan. The Surry plant, on the south bank of the James River about 17 miles northwest of Newport News, saw its first reactor open in December 1972 and its second in May 1973. The NRC said in a statement that Surry Unit 1’s renewed license will expire May 25, 2052, and the renewed license for unit 2 will expire on Jan. 29, 2053. “Extending Surry’s operations is critical to Dominion Energy meeting the Virginia Clean Economy Act’s requirements for zero-carbon electricity by 2045,” Dan Stoddard, Dominion Energy’s chief nuclear officer, said in a statement. “It also positions Virginia for continued economic growth and will help the Commonwealth remain a leader in the production of clean energy in the mid-Atlantic and South,” Stoddard said. “It supports more than 900 high-paying jobs at the station and produces additional economic and tax benefits.” The Virginia Clean Economy Act, which Gov. Ralph Northam signed in 2020, seeks to emphasize energy from renewable sources like wind and solar. It requires that by 2045, all of the energy sold by the state’s electric utilities not be carbon-based. Last Friday, the State Corporation Commission approved nine new solar farms that Dominion said will total nearly 500 megawatts, or “enough to power 125,000 homes at peak output with renewable energy.” Dominion says the two Surry nuclear units are “capable of producing clean electricity for 419,000 homes.” It had submitted the renewal application for the Surry reactors in October 2018. Last year Dominion applied for a renewal of licenses at its two nuclear reactor units at the North Anna nuclear plant in Louisa County, and the NRC review is continuing. Together, the Surry and North Anna plants produce nearly a third of the electricity for Dominion’s 2.7 million customers in Virginia and North Carolina, the company said.
New York Nuclear Closure Could Increase Gas Use, But Likely Not In New England -- Natural gas use is expected to increase in New York after the closure Friday of the state's largest nuclear plant. But it probably won’t trickle out to New England, according to a regional industry leader. New York and New England's power grids can share electricity with each other, depending on supply and demand. They use a similar fuel mix, with very little coal and oil and an increasing amount of wind and other renewables; New York is especially dependent on hydropower. But both regions run largely on gas and nuclear power, meaning that when a nuclear plant closes, it's usually backfilled with gas. That happened in New England after the Vermont Yankee nuclear plant retired in 2014, and climate activists expect the same in New York with the Indian Point nuclear plant now offline. That mix is likely to change again in the coming years as New York works to bring huge amounts of offshore wind power online. But in the short term, it’s unlikely to affect the power that gets exported northward, according to Dan Dolan, the head of the New England Power Generators’ Association. He says gas already tends to supply the relatively small amount of power New England gets from New York every day. New England states, including New Hampshire, are hoping to see their own boom in offshore wind power within the decade – potentially decreasing gas dependence further. The region has two remaining nuclear plants: Seabrook in New Hampshire and Millstone in Connecticut. Millstone’s two reactors are licensed to run through 2035 and 2045, and Seabrook’s license was recently extended through 2050. In the next nine years, President Joe Biden aims to permit enough offshore wind energy in the U.S. to equal the capacity of 25 new Seabrook reactors.
U.S. eyes nuclear reactor tax credit to meet climate goals -sources (Reuters) - The White House has signaled privately to lawmakers and stakeholders in recent weeks that it supports taxpayer subsidies to keep nuclear facilities from closing and making it harder to meet U.S. climate goals, three sources familiar with the discussions told Reuters. New subsidies, in the form of "production tax credits," would likely be swept into President Joe Biden's multi-trillion-dollar legislative effort to invest in infrastructure and jobs, the sources said. Wind and solar power producers already get these tax rebates based on levels of energy they generate. Biden wants the U.S. power industry to be emissions free by 2035. He is asking Congress to extend or create tax credits aimed at wind, solar and battery manufacturing as part of his $2.3 trillion American Jobs Plan. The United States leads the world with more than 90 nuclear reactors, the country's top source of emissions-free power generation. Yet aging plants have been closing due to rising security costs and competition from plentiful natural gas, wind and solar power, which are becoming less pricey. "There's a deepening understanding within the administration that it needs nuclear to meet its zero-emission goals," said a source engaged in the talks and familiar with the White House thinking. The White House had no comment. New York state's Indian Point nuclear power plant, owned by Entergy Corp, closed its last reactor on April 30. In Illinois, Exelon Corp has said it might close four reactors at two plants by November, if the state does not implement subsidies. Nuclear plants provide thousands of union jobs that pay some of the highest salaries in the energy business. Biden's allies in building trades unions have lobbied for the production tax credits. The credits also have the support of Democratic Senator Joe Manchin from the energy-rich state of West Virginia, two of the sources said. He holds outsized power in the evenly divided Senate because he can block his party's agenda. Preliminary plans for a federal nuclear power production tax credit in deregulated markets bar companies from double-dipping in states that offer similar assistance, according to one of the sources. Companies also would have to prove financial hardship, the source said. .
Nuclear On Verge Of ESG Inclusion: White House To Subsidize Existing Nuclear Power Plants - In a move that may infuriate environmentalists and delight investors in uranium stocks (who already saw a surge in their portfolios on Monday following our weekend report "This Is A Game-Changer For Uranium Stocks") Reuters reports that the White House has privately signaled to lawmakers and stakeholders in recent weeks (so as not to reveal to the broader public) that it supports taxpayer subsidies to keep existing nuclear facilities from closing, bending to the reality that it needs these plants to meet its deliriously aggressively climate goals (which were dissected recently by Bloomberg in "The U.S. Will Need a Lot of Land for a Zero-Carbon Economy").The new subsidies in the form of "production tax credits," would likely be swept into President Joe Biden's multi-trillion-dollar legislative effort to invest in the nation's infrastructure and jobs, the Reuters sources said. More importantly being on par with other more "green" sources of energy, it likely means that it is now just a matter of time before even the most rabid members of the ESG crew are forced to admit nuclear to their cool crowd. Wind and solar power producers already get these tax rebates based on levels of energy they generate.As revealed last month, Biden wants the US power industry to be emissions free by 2035, a schedule which is unachievable without the benefit of nuclear power which as shown below has among the lowest land area footprints...
Overview of Recent Nationwide Permit Program Changes --National Law Review (excerpts):
- Ohio EPA Waived Water Quality Certifications: Under Section 401 of the CWA, a federal agency may not issue a permit, such as a NWP, to conduct any activity that may result in any discharge into waters of the United States unless a Section 401 water quality certification (“WQC”) is issued by a certifying authority such as the Ohio EPA. The certifying authority must timely verify compliance with water quality requirements, or its certification right is waived. A WQC can be waived expressly or by failure to act on a certification request within a reasonable period of time provided by the Corps. The Corps, in a Public Notice issued on March 8, 2021, took the position that the State of Ohio Section 401 WQC has been waived for the newly issued NWPs. Ohio EPA received a request for certification under Section 401 of the CWA for the proposed issuance the NWPs in October of 2020 with 60 days to respond. Ohio EPA did not respond until March 4, 2021. In its WQC, Ohio EPA provided that “any lowering of water quality in various waters of the state as authorized by these certifications is necessary;” meaning that impacts to waters of the state of Ohio may occur pursuant to activities authorized by the NWPs subject to specified conditions. However, at this point in time, the specified conditions do not apply to NWPs issued for activities in Ohio. Activities that meet the conditions of the current NWPs do not require an individual Ohio Section 401 WQC. Therefore, anyone applying for coverage under the newly issued NWPs need only apply for, obtain coverage under, and comply with the federal NWP requirements. Ohio EPA’s currently waived WQC for the newly issued permits can be found here.
- Ohio EPA Issues General Permit to Protect Ephemeral Streams and Isolated Wetlands No Longer Protected by the Clean Water Act: On April 21, 2020, the United States Environmental Protection Agency and the United States Army Corps of Engineers (“Corps”) published the Navigable Waters Protection Rule (“NWPR”) in the Federal Register. The NWPR finalized a revised definition of “waters of the United States” under the Clean Water Act (“CWA”) and replaced the 2015 Clean Water Rule which previously defined the term. The definition of “waters of the United States” in the CWA controls permitting and regulatory requirements for waterbodies that fall within that definition. While individual states normally have the authority to stop a federal agency from issuing a permit for a project that does not comply with that state’s additional requirements in their Water Quality Certification (“WQC”), the NWPR potentially left unprotected the estimated 36,000 miles of ephemeral streams in Ohio. In response, the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency (“Ohio EPA”) issued the Ohio General Permit for Filling Category 1 and 2 Isolated Wetlands and Ephemeral Streams (“General Permit”) on June 25, 2020. Ohio EPA cited Ohio Revised Code (“ORC”) § 6111 as its source of authority to regulate the filing of and discharges into these waterbodies in Ohio that are now explicitly excluded from the CWA. A 2017 letter concerning the proposed changes to the NWPR provides a basis for Ohio EPA’s current actions. Ohio EPA stated: Due to the broad definition and prohibitions in ORC 6111, ephemeral and intermittent streams would be protected, but there would be no permitting mechanism to allow the placement of dredge and fill material similar to the 404/401 permitting mechanism. The 401 program in Ohio is dependent on the 404 process, so if certain streams were considered not a water of the US (non-jurisdictional), then a 401 WQC could not be issued for placement of dredge and fill material.
Rep. Baldridge fights for pipeline, jobs in Michigan visit --An Ohio lawmaker went on the road to try to convince Michigan officials to abandon plans to force the shutdown of a fuel pipeline that could cost jobs in the Buckeye State. Rep. Brian Baldridge, R-Winchester, testified last week before the Michigan Senate's Energy Committee and met with the state’s Senate leadership in response to the recently adopted Ohio Resolution 13, which urged Michigan to keep the Enbridge Line 5 pipeline operating. “I drove to Michigan for one reason: to protect Ohio jobs,” Baldridge said. “We cannot allow a political decision to get in the way of hardworking Ohioans providing for their families. House Resolution 13 would keep Line 5 safely operating and protect Ohio jobs and protect the Great Lakes Region's shared economy.” A shutdown affects jobs and fuel availability in the region, according to Enbridge, leaving Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan and Canadian provinces Ontario and Quebec with a 14.7-million-U.S.-gallons-a-day supply shortage of gas, diesel and jet fuel. That represents about 45% of the current supply. A shutdown could cause the loss of $5.4 billion in economic output to Ohio and southeast Michigan, the company said. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel and Michigan Department of Natural Resources Director Dan Eichinger filed a lawsuit Nov. 13 in Ingham County Court demanding Enbridge cease Line 5 operations by May 2021. The easement has been in place since 1953. The Line 5 pipeline services two Oregon refineries in northwest Ohio. According to Ohio officials, closing the line would cause a significant disruption in the supply chain, which serves as a source of jet fuel for several regional and international airports, particularly in Cleveland and Detroit. Whitmer and Eichinger said the administration’s actions are based on what they are characterizing as Enbridge’s violation of the public trust doctrine, which protects the state’s natural resources.Among the violations cited by the governor are “the unreasonable risk that continued operation of the dual pipelines poses to the Great Lakes,” according to a November news release. Whitmer cited events in April 2018 and another in 2019 in which Line 5 was damaged.
Cabot, Southwestern Remain Disciplined in 1Q, Despite Jump in Prices --Appalachian heavyweights Cabot Oil & Gas Corp. and Southwestern Energy Co. stayed in maintenance mode during the first quarter of 2021, keeping production flat and delivering free cash flow (FCF) in line with plans for the period. Both companies reported an increase in average realized prices during the quarter, but that didn’t prompt them to change course as Appalachian operators have scaled back in recent years amid volatile commodity prices and calls for better returns from investors. Cabot produced 2.29 Bcfe/d during the quarter, all of it natural gas produced solely in Susquehanna County, PA. That was down slightly from 2.36 Bcfe/d in 1Q2020. But the company had guided for a drop during the period given a decrease in operating activity and capital spending during the second half of 2020. Cabot’s full-year guidance remains unchanged at 2.23-2.28 Bcfe/d, but CEO Dan Dinges said production wouldn’t begin ramping up until later this year. “Our production guidance for the second quarter implies a slight sequential decline relative to the first quarter, which is a result of lower activity levels and capital spending during the winter season,” Dinges said. “Activity levels are expected to increase in the second and third quarters, resulting in sequential growth during the second half of the year, primarily during the fourth quarter in anticipation of higher natural gas prices and the in-service of the Leidy South expansion project.” Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line LLC’s Leidy South would carry about 600 MMcf/d from Pennsylvania to Atlantic Seaboard markets. Partial capacity on the system was brought online late last year. . The company reported net income of $126.4 million (32 cents/share), compared to a profit of $53.9 million (14 cents) in 1Q2020. Southwestern has similar plans for 2021, announcing guidance late last year to keep 4Q2021 production flat with 4Q2020 levels, including the assets ittook in the acquisition of Appalachian pure-play Montage Resources Corp. that was completed last November. The company had a stronger start to the year, though, reporting 269 Bcfe of production, which consisted of 79% natural gas, 17% natural gas liquids and 4% oil. That’s up from 201 Bcfe in the year-ago period. The company’s Southwest Appalachia division accounted for 151 Bcfe of 1Q2021 volumes, while its Northeast Appalachia division, where volumes are drier, produced 118 Bcf. Southwestern in the first quarter drilled its first Utica Shale well in Ohio after entering the state with the Montage acquisition. COO Clay Carrell said the well is currently being completed and is expected to come online this quarter. The company has 12-15 Utica wells planned for this year, Carrell said, adding that “we get the incremental benefit from that program of now consistently drilling Utica wells and all the learning that’s going to come from that.”
Gas industry slowdown hurting western Pa. economy, taxpayers — For the past decade, the natural gas industry has boomed in Western Pennsylvania. But the industry is facing tough times now, and that is having a major impact in communities where the industry has a large presence. Advertisement Waynesburg was the center of the natural gas boom but you wouldn't know it these days. A downtown building hosting a Welcome to Greene County sign is for sale. Other buildings are seeking renters as stores shut down. Area leaders said it's not just the pandemic causing the slowdown. "It used to be if you sat on the sidewalk in Waynesburg you'd see water trucks and sand hauling trucks just lined up going through there and that is no longer the case," said County Commission Chairman Mike Belding. In late 2014, records show the natural gas industry employed 33,181 people in Pennsylvania. But by late 2020, that number had dropped by 30 percent to 23,360. From 2017 to 2020, the number of new wells statewide dropped by nearly half from 810 to 476. That's had an impact on other businesses that relied on the gas industry. At Lavern's Restaurant outside Waynesburg, Action News Investigates caught up with former Greene County Sheriff Richard Ketchem. After leaving office he oversaw security for a trucking company that serviced the gas industry. "For a while when I was running the agency they wanted guys all the time to check the wells, go around well sites. There's none of that anymore," said Ketchem, who lost his job before the pandemic. "We had five companies there, almost 1,100 people, and they all got laid off," he said. The downturn has also hurt people who own gas leases, like Bill Schamp of Greene County. His lease paid up to $5,000 per year but no more. Five years later we're supposed to renew it and it's 17-18 acres of property and they just never called me back, let the lease expire," Schamp said. "A few people I know were getting $40,000 to $50,000 a month, and they built new houses, bought new cars and trucks, then it dried up and now they're going into foreclosure." The county also spent freely during the boom, according to Belding who took over last year. He said his predecessors used millions of dollars in gas impact fees to plug budget holes. "We inherited a 2020 budget that was passed in 2019 with a $5 million budget deficit out of a $40 million budget. Because of that, we ended up raising taxes," . Marcellus Shale Coalition president David Callahan said the pandemic is part of the reason, but a much bigger factor is the sharp drop in the price of natural gas. "All commodity industries are cyclical. We're very very reactive to prices. Low price means more supply on the market and the industry responds to those market signals,"
Why EQT's making a $3B deal to purchase a top-10 Pa. driller --EQT Corp. is already the country’s largest independent natural gas producer, with its footprint mostly in the tri-state area south of Pittsburgh in what is one of the Marcellus Shale’s two most prolific gas fields. With the pending $2.9 billion acquisition of Alta Resources Development LLC that was announced Thursday, EQT will be getting something new: a hefty chunk of wells and acreage in the Marcellus’ other center of development, northeastern Pennsylvania. The two companies together will not only be the largest producer of Marcellus and Utica shale gas but that much bigger in the overall national picture. EQT (NYSE: EQT) is already producing 4.9 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas, well above its next-nearest competitor, Exxon Mobil and its new Marcellus Shale neighbor, Cabot Oil & Gas Corp. Adding in Alta’s 1 billion cubic feet per day will give EQT almost 6 billion cubic feet a day. Or, put another way, it’ll bring together the No. 1 and No. 8 drillers in Pennsylvania, according to the 2021 Pittsburgh Business Times Book of Lists. EQT has 1,985 wells across mostly southwestern Pennsylvania while Alta Resources has 499 wells in Centre, Clinton, Lycoming and Sullivan counties. And EQT CEO Toby Z. Rice told analysts on Thursday's first-quarter analyst call that the company is already thinking of all the opportunities that an EQT-Alta combination provide. "We have the ability to shape the portfolio, to continue to optimize it and still benefit from the commercial opportunities that present themselves that I do believe are starting to become apparent and unique to EQT, what you get from managing such a large production base," Rice said. That 6 billion cubic feet of natural gas won't just be going to EQT's traditional markets but also to other markets in the Northeast where the Pittsburgh-based driller didn't normally have a pipeline to sell gas into. The assets are a combination of operated by Alta and a portion that’s operated in a deal with Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK). EQT plans to have one rig drilling enough to keep production steady on its operated side; it’s still to be seen what it will be drilling in conjunction with Chesapeake. The operated and nonoperated assets are about 50% each of the acquisition. Alta's assets were built from another top-tier driller, Anadarko. Rice said EQT plans to add the Alta assets to its combo development strategy, a highly choreographed and efficient plan to drill and complete wells that Rice Energy used during its time as a company and EQT under Rice has also used. EQT will keep Alta’s key personnel and its own chiefs of drilling and production have experience in northeastern Pennsylvania.
The Supreme Court Case That Could Change Everything For U.S. Pipelines - A Supreme Court hearing began this week that could seal the future fate of gas pipelines across the United States. It could also change the balance of power between federal and state authorities in a way that federal authorities would hardly like. The case involves the proposed PennEast pipeline, a 120-mile, 1-billion-cu-m piece of infrastructure that will take natural gas from the Marcellus shale across Pennsylvania and New Jersey. New Jersey is opposing the pipeline. PennEast and FERC want to use eminent domain to condemn the state and private land they need to build the infrastructure.On the face of it, it is a simple case—just another pipeline dispute of the sort that has been enjoying growing popularity among environmentalist groups and politicians in the past few years. In this case, the politicians want to stop PennEast from receiving easements for 40 parcels of federal land. The only way for PennEast to receive these easements, then, is to sue New Jersey. What makes this case different is that its outcome could have major implications for the industry.As Forbes’ Christopher Hellman explained in an article from earlier this week, the argument of the New Jersey political pipeline opponents is that under the 11thAmendment to the Constitution, states have sovereign immunity against lawsuits brought against them by private parties such as companies. In other words, PennEast simply has no right, under the Constitution of the United States, to sue New Jersey’s politicians on the pipeline issue.A counter-argument, used by a district court in 2018 to rule in favor of the natural gas project, is that PennEast is not acting on its own with its plans to carry 1 billion cubic meters of natural gas across two states. It is acting, the court ruled, under the auspices of a government authority: the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.Forbes’ Hellman notes this was not a first, either: since the passing of the Natural Gas Act in 1938, FERC has on more than one occasion delegated its powers to invoke eminent domain to energy companies. From PennEast’s perspective, then, since federal power supersedes state power and since FERC has approved the New Jersey pipeline, it has every right to sue the state for that land.New Jersey appealed the district court ruling, and the appeals court found in its favor. It said that the state had sovereign immunity against lawsuits brought against it by private entities such as PennEast, noting that the power to invoke eminent domain as delegated to it by FERC was a completely different matter from its right to sue a state.“Thus, the federal government’s ability to condemn State land … is, in fact, the function of two separate powers: the government’s eminent domain power and its exemption from Eleventh Amendment immunity,” the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 3rd Circuit said in its decision. “A delegation of the former must not be confused for, or conflated with, a delegation of the latter.”
Williams Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates, Increase Y/Y --The Williams Companies, Inc. WMB reported first-quarter 2021 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 35 cents, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 28 cents as well as the year-ago quarter’s earnings of 26 cents.This outperformance can be attributed to higher-than-expected contributions from its two segments. Precisely, adjusted EBITDA from the West and the Northeast G&P units totaled $315 million and $402 million each, ahead of their respective Zacks Consensus Estimate of $247 million and $397 million.Also, for the quarter ended Mar 31, the company’s revenues of $2.61 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 22.71% and also increased from the year-ago figure of $1.9 billion.Adjusted EBITDA was $1.4 billion in the quarter under review, reflecting an increase of 12.1% from the corresponding period of 2020. Cash flow from operations totaled $915 million compared with $787 million in the prior-year period. Favorable net working capital changes drove cash flow in the quarter. Segmental Analysis
- Transmission & Gulf of Mexico: Comprising Williams’ massive Transco pipeline system and the Northwest Pipeline, the segment generated adjusted EBITDA of $660 million, lower than the year-ago quarter’s $669 million. Despite marginal gains in service revenues, commodity margins and investee EBITDA, the unit’s performance was offset by higher operating and administrative expenses.
- West: This segment includes gathering and processing assets in the Western region of the United States. It delivered adjusted EBITDA of $315 million, which is 45.8% higher than $216 million recorded in the year-earlier quarter. The improved results were driven by higher product marketing margins resulting from elevated prices and the absence of prior-year inventory effects plus lower operating and administrative expenses.
- Northeast G&P: Engaged in natural gas gathering and processing along with the NGL fractionation business in Marcellus and Utica shale regions, the segment generated an adjusted EBITDA of $402 million, up 8.7% from the prior-year quarter’s $370 million. Increased gathering volumes on its Bradford and Marcellus South systems and higher equity-method investments contributions drove the results.
Invenergy proposed natural gas-fired plant questioned in Pennsylvania - Residents and concerned citizens questioned the chief engineer of the Allegheny County Health Department's permitting section about potential emissions for a proposed natural gas-fired power plant that a Chicago company wants to build along the Youghiogheny River in Elizabeth Township. Invenergy first proposed in 2016 building the 639-megawatt Allegheny Energy Center power plant in Elizabeth Township. But the township turned down the proposal, as was a proposed rezoning from rural residential to light industrial to allow the plant at a different location along the river and near the Great Allegheny Passage Bike Trail in 2017. But another rezoning proposal made in 2018, to allow a power plant on the 147-acre site, was approved. Work hasn’t begun on the process nor has Invenergy applied for a land-use permit to begin construction. Invenergy has, however, applied to the ACHD for an air-quality permit. The meeting brought out residents from Elizabeth Township as well as the Westmoreland County towns across the river from the plant site. It was sponsored by the Mountain Watershed Association, whose Executive Director Ashley Funk said there are concerns about how close it is to the Youghiogheny River and the bike trail as well as the environmental impact on the communities of West Newton and Sutersville. Both meet the standard of at least 20% low-income residents. “We also want to take into account that this region has a significant amount of source polluters,” Funk said. It’s seven miles from U.S. Steel Clairton, the county’s largest emitter, and about six miles from another natural gas-fired power plant in Smithton. The March 21 draft permit recommends approval of the air quality permit. JoAnn Truchan, ACHD’s section chief of engineering, said the plant has to meet federal guidelines for air emissions and also that it must have the best control technology for emissions without regard to cost to the company. “This permit meets that (federal environmental standards),” Truchan said. According to a draft air-quality report from ACHD, the plant will emit nitrogen oxide, carbon monoxide and volatile organic compounds. It will have emissions limits as set out by the installation permit, and will be required to perform monitoring and testing for those emissions as well as particulate matter. Some residents noted the other air emissions in the region and wondered if it were better to focus on cutting down other pollution sources before approving a new plant.
Residents protest approval of power plant in Keasbey - A group of concerned citizens attended the Woodbridge Township Council meeting on May 4 to voice concern about, and protest, the board’s approval of a new 630-megawatt gas-fired power plant in the Keasbey section of town. The plant would be the second of its kind in the township. The CPV Woodbridge Energy Center (CPV Woodbridge) is a 725-megawatt combined-cycle gas power generation facility that began operations in January 2016. The power plant is located on Riverside Drive on the site of an abandoned chemical plant that became the Brownfields Development Area (BDA) in 2009. The New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection’s (DEP) Brownfield Remediation and Reuse Element established a BDA initiative in order to work with selected communities affected by multiple brownfield sites to design and implement remediation and reuse plans for the abandoned and unused properties. Benefits included access to various grants from the DEP of up to $5,000,000 per year. With that incentive in mind, and so much abandoned space in the community, township officials identified multiple sites in Keasbey to be considered for such projects of redevelopment, officials said. According to the activist group EmpowerNJ, the developer’s application indicates that “the plant would pour millions of tons of greenhouse gases and significant quantities of toxic poisonous chemicals every year that will negatively affect the health of residents in Central Jersey and Staten Island.”Although the plans for the new facility have already been approved by Woodbridge Township, final approvals are yet to be received from the DEP.
New York advisory panel recommendations to include gas-fired plant moratorium - New York's Power Generation Advisory Panel will recommend a moratorium against new fossil fuel-fired plant construction to the state's Climate Action Council, the panel's chair said May 3. The concept of a moratorium has been included as a recommendation, though consensus on it was not reached among all panel members, said Sarah Osgood, panel chair and director of policy implementation at the New York State Department of Public Service, during a remotely held meeting of the panel. "We had presented at our last meeting that there was a concept of a moratorium on new and repowered gas facilities and that has been incorporated as a component of a recommendation," Osgood said. Based on public comments, there was generally broad support for the advisory panel's agenda with "lots of support for energy efficiency and renewables as well as energy storage" and a lot of calls for equity and urgency of action, Osgood said. There was some concern with the pace of renewable energy project build-out and requests for earlier engagement with local communities when planning renewable energy projects, according to a presentation given during the meeting. The panel is preparing to present its recommendations to the state's Climate Action Council on May 10. The CAC is charged with developing the rules and regulations that will guide the implementation of the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act which mandates an emissions-free power system by 2040, among numerous other goals. Other key topics regarding the panel's recommendations identified by commenters were around the role of nuclear power and natural gas infrastructure in New York' energy transition. Most commenters were evenly split between pro- and anti-nuclear power. Those in favor of the power source pointed to the benefits of its emissions-free baseload generation, contribution to power grid reliability and it being a preferred alternative to building out gas-fired power plants that would increase carbon dioxide emissions, according to the presentation. Those against nuclear power highlighted health and safety concerns associated with radiation and spent fuel rod storage while expressing a preference for supporting renewable energy instead.Most commenters called for preventing continued gas infrastructure build out, specifically regarding new power plant construction. Many also said there should be a plan to phase out existing gas-fired power plants with a priority on closing peaking facilities around New York City, the presentation said. Feedback also focused on the inconsistency of expanding gas infrastructure with the state's greenhouse gas emissions reduction goals, as well as the negative impacts fossil fuel infrastructure can have on communities. Many said they would prefer investments are made in renewable energy, energy storage and power transmission that can replace the need for gas-fired generation.
Over 60% of natural gas pipeline extension completed in Salisbury — The pipeline grows. The Salisbury City Council heard the latest update Monday evening on a controversial natural gas pipeline set to extend service to Somerset County. The Del-Mar Energy Pathway pipeline will extend natural gas service to Eastern Correctional Institution and the University of Maryland Eastern Shore, as both anchors look to transition off more polluting fuels.Chesapeake Utilities Corp. got the unanimous green light from the Maryland Board of Public Works in January for the $34 million project, which will add nearly seven miles of 10-inch-diameter gas pipeline from Delaware, through Wicomico County and into Somerset County. "Residents and businesses along the line will soon have the choice to use environmentally beneficial and less expensive natural gas service," wrote Justin Mulcahy, spokesman for Chesapeake Utilities Corp., in a statement that month, "something elected officials and community members have advocated for more than two decades."That line includes a section running through Salisbury, along Route 13. "They're at approximately 64% complete with the pipeline installation to-date," Ongoing construction activities remain at various locations, and horizontal drilling for installation under the South Prong of the Wicomico River was completed in February.
Emissions concerns, job hopes share center stage during meeting on proposed Pleasants County methanol facility - Environmentalists objected to and county and union officials welcomed an application to build a $350 million natural gas-to-methanol facility in Pleasants County during a public meeting that West Virginia environmental regulators held Tuesday evening.The state Department of Environmental Protection’s Division of Air Quality held the meeting virtually to take comments and answer questions about the application from West Virginia Methanol, Inc., which applied in November to construct the plant off Route 2 between Belmont and St. Marys near the Ohio River on the site of the former Cabot Corporation carbon black manufacturing facility.Six out of 10 speakers who commented on the application during the meeting expressed concern about the planned facility, which would produce about 1,000 tons of methanol from natural gas daily.The Department of Environmental Protection had already announced its preliminary determination to issue a permit for the facility prior to the meeting.But representatives of Concerned Ohio River Residents, a group opposed to petrochemical development in the Ohio Valley, the Ohio Valley Environmental Coalition, the Sierra Club and the West Virginia Rivers Coalition said that West Virginia Methanol should have to go through a more extensive permitting review process. Environmental regulators did not perform any air quality impact modeling analysis since the proposed facility’s estimated maximum emissions are less than applicability thresholds that would define the facility as “major” under a state legislative rule adopted in accordance with the federal Clean Air Act.The proposed facility does not have the potential to emit more than 100 tons per year of any regulated pollutant according to the permit application, meaning that it is not subject to a state legislative rule that would require a full environmental impact statement and consideration of greenhouse gases and non-air quality impacts, including potential impacts on property values, traffic, zoning and national energy issues.But the facility is close to meeting that threshold in potential to emit nitrous oxides (92.98 tons per year) and carbon monoxide (91.76 tons per year), which those wary of the project contended is close enough to subject the permit application to the more rigorous review process. “If you don’t, there will be a human toll,”
2 arrested after Giles County pipeline protest - Last November, Thomas Adams was elected to the board of the Skyline Soil and Water Conservation District, which protects the natural resources of the New River Valley. On Friday, he chained himself to a truck involved with the construction of the Mountain Valley Pipeline, which opponents say is ruining those same natural resources. Adams, a former hydrologist with the National Weather Service, was arrested after he refused to leave. The 68-year-old Blacksburg resident was charged with abduction, unauthorized use of a vehicle and obstruction of free passage, according to Virginia State Police. Police were called about 10:30 a.m. to Brickyard Road in the Maybrook area of Giles County, where they saw a crowd of people blocking the road. They also found a man lying beneath a tractor-trailer, attached to its underside with what’s called a sleeping dragon. Specially trained troopers dismantled the lock-box device and removed Adams, who was then checked by paramedics before being taken to a magistrate. “Many will ask: why have I chained myself to a truck carrying pipe for the Mountain Valley Pipeline?” Adams said in a statement released by Appalachians Against Pipelines. “I had no choice.” “I know what looms before us if we continue down the path with our obsessive use of fossil fuels. As a scientist and engineer who has been active in the field of water resources and hydrometeorology in the U.S. and internationally, working on issues related to climate change and global warming, I believe the science,” he said.
Pipeline opponents sentenced to spend day in jail for each day in tree-sit protest — Two nonviolent protesters must serve a day in jail for every day they spent in tree stands blocking the path of the Mountain Valley Pipeline, a Montgomery County judge ruled Wednesday.For Alexander Samuel Parker Lowe, who occupied the so-called Yellow Finch tree-sit from Nov. 16, 2020, to when he was removed by state police March 24, that worked out to a 254-day jail sentence.For Claire Marian Fiocco, who went up in a tree Jan. 3 and was extracted March 23, the sentence was 158 days.The case pitted the tree sitters’ right to protest a controversial natural gas pipeline against Mountain Valley’s legal authority to cut trees and plow a trench for its buried pipe through a forest near Elliston.“There’s nothing wrong with peaceful protest,” Chief Deputy Commonwealth’s Attorney Patrick Jensen argued. “But the rule of law does not cease to exist just because people disagree with what the pipeline was legally entitled to do.”After convicting the two of obstructing justice and interfering with Mountain Valley’s property rights, General District Judge Randal Duncan said he tried to “apply some common sense” in sentencing them on the misdemeanor charges.The jail sentences were actually double the time Lowe and Fiocco spent in the trees, but Duncan took into account a standard credit toward release of one day they will receive for each day served. Both have been held without bond since their arrests.
Criminal investigation of Mountain Valley Pipeline ends with no charges - A two-year criminal investigation of the Mountain Valley Pipeline has concluded with no charges filed.In a report filed Tuesday with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the lead partner in the project said it was informed last month that a federal investigation was completed, “without an adverse determination to the MVP joint venture.”Mountain Valley spokeswoman Natalie Cox said it was the company’s understanding that there was no finding of wrongdoing, and that no criminal or civil action would be taken.The case began more than two years ago with a complaint by Preserve Bent Mountain, a Roanoke County group that had been fighting the natural gas pipeline for years.Representatives for the group presented a large amount of evidence to the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Roanoke, asking it to investigate possible violations of the Clean Water Act and other federal laws.While Mountain Valley has repeatedly run afoul of administrative regulations meant to keep muddy runoff from contaminating nearby streams and rivers, a criminal charge would have carried a higher burden of proof.Brian McGinn, a spokesman for the U.S. Attorney’s Office, declined to comment Tuesday.Although federal prosecutors rarely confirm that an investigation is in progress, Mountain Valley was required to inform investors, through its SEC filings, of any potential risk to the company’s financial well-being.
Mountain Valley Pipeline delayed again as project cost keeps rising - The projected in-service date for the Mountain Valley Pipeline has been pushed back yet again. Equitrans Midstream Corp. announced Tuesday it was moving its targeted in-service date for the pipeline from the end of 2021 to the summer of 2022, a delay the company predicted would add at least $200 million to the now $6.2 billion project. The delay factors in more time that the primary developer of the pipeline slated to travel from Northwestern West Virginia to Southern Virginia says it will need to get water crossing permits for the project, which was originally scheduled for completion by the end of 2018 at a cost of just $3.5 billion. Diana Charletta, Equitrans Midstream president and chief operating officer, noted during the company’s first-quarter earnings call Tuesday that Mountain Valley Pipeline LLC, the joint venture that owns the pipeline, still has applications pending with West Virginia and Virginia state environmental regulators for about 300 water crossings while it seeks approval from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to tunnel under 120 additional waterbodies. The West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection last month asked for an additional 90 days beyond the 120 days the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers gave the agency to review Mountain Valley Pipeline LLC’s water permit request. But the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality in March requested an additional year to review the pipeline permit application. “Based on the complexity of this project and past public controversy, we cannot reasonably issue the [water] permit before December 2021 and we believe it is quite likely that we could not issue this permit until early 2022,” Melanie Davenport of the department’s water permitting division wrote to the Corps in March. West Virginia and Virginia state environmental regulators are still awaiting responses from the Corps, their spokespeople said Tuesday. Charletta said Equitrans Midstream’s targeted summer 2022 in-service date is based on receiving all water crossing approvals and the lifting of a remaining exclusion zone around Jefferson National Forest by the end of 2021. First announced in 2014, the 42-inch-diameter, 303-mile Mountain Valley Pipeline is slated to provide up to 2 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas from the Marcellus and Utica shale formations to markets in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern regions of the United States, traveling from Northwestern West Virginia to Southern Virginia.
Why Equitrans pushed back two pipeline in-service dates - Equitrans Midstream Corp.’s extended timeline to complete the Mountain Valley Pipeline by summer 2022 assumes the Canonsburg-based company gets the remaining approvals by the end of this year. Equitrans (told investors in its first-quarter earnings release that it had pushed back the MVP in-operation date to 2022 because it no longer expected to receive its permits in the previous time frame. That is due in part to Virginia and West Virginia regulators asking the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers for more time to review water permits that MVP needs. Equitrans President Diana Charletta said MVP supported and expects the additional time. That means Equitrans will need another winter season to finish the 303-mile pipeline that will take Marcellus and Utica shale natural gas to Virginia. The pipeline was originally supposed to be in service by the end of 2018 and cost between $3 billion and $3.5 billion, but the cost has steadily been increasing with court and regulatory delays. The estimate is now $6 billion, which is about $200 million more than previous due to what the company said was increased costs due to protecting the rights of way and shifting resources. Equitrans, which will operate the pipeline and own about half, expects to cover $3.1 billion of the cost. Construction on the pipeline resumed in March, and it’s expected to conclude much of it by September with only about 10 miles in water crossings and 8 miles in and near the Jefferson National Forest left to do. Charletta said the timeline assumed MVP would receive the water crossing approvals and a lifting of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission stop-work order by the end of the year. It previously expected them by July. But even if that happens by the end of December, Equitrans executives said the winter would make it more difficult to complete. More likely the construction schedule will resume in March 2022 and be in service in the early summer, she said. It might still be possible if the company doesn’t get a permit until 2022. “We are not going to do a ton of work over the winter so that if one of those (permits) lags til first quarter we can still hit that same guidance range,” Charletta said. The construction work, instead of going on at the same time as planned, will now be done separately. CEO Tom Karam said the company was frustrated by having to keep a right of way open during the work before allowing the land to be permanently restored. “(Equitrans’ hope and objective is) getting the reviews done as quickly as possible, (with) FERC approval, so we can complete the project and permanently restore the right of way quickly and get off everyone’s property,” he said. “We think that is the most environmentally sound thing we can do right now.” The delay in the Mountain Valley Pipeline is spilling over to a related project, MVP Southgate. That 75-mile pipeline is designed to take the Marcellus and Utica shale gas down through the MVP and then in two counties in North Carolina. The $500 million extension has a commitment from Dominion Energy, but has twice been denied by North Carolina environmental regulators over concerns about the timeline for MVP itself. Southgate is now being planned for construction in 2022 and in service in spring 2023. That would put MVP Southgate about a year behind the previous schedule. “It would be midyear starting construction, that’s our plan right now,” Charletta said. “We want to make sure we get all of our permits and everything taken care of.”
PIPELINES: Moderate Dems join GOP in calling for faster permitting -- Friday, April 30, 2021 -A collection of Senate Republicans and moderate Democrats called on the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to expedite its review of 14 pending natural gas pipelines.
U.S. natgas futures climb to 10-week high on near record exports - U.S. natural gas futures climbed to a 10-week high on Monday on forecasts for near record exports. That price increase came despite forecasts for milder weather and less heating demand this week than previously expected. Front-month gas futures NGc1 rose 3.5 cents, or 1.2%, to settle at $2.966 per million British thermal units, their highest close since Feb. 19. That kept the front-month in overbought territory with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) over 70 for a sixth day in a row for the first time since November 2019. In the power market, meanwhile, the Electric Reliability Coordinator of Texas (ERCOT), the state's grid operator, said late on Friday that there could be a reserve capacity deficiency Monday afternoon. That caused next-day prices for Monday at the ERCOT North hub EL-PK-ERTN-SNL to jump to $115 per megawatt hour (MWh), their highest since a February freeze when the grid ran short of power and ERCOT imposed rotating blackouts. Real-time prices in ERCOT, however, remained in the $10s and $20s per MWh on Monday and even fell into negative territory for several hours overnight.
June Natural Gas Futures Retreat Despite Favorable Inventory Result - Natural Gas Intelligence - Natural gas futures slipped lower for a second consecutive session on Thursday, despite a bullish government inventory print and continued robust demand for both U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipeline exports. The June Nymex contract fell 1.0 cent day/day and settled at $2.928/MMBtu. The contract lost 2.9 cents on Wednesday. July shed eight-tenths of a cent to $2.974 on Thursday. NGI’s Spot GasNational Avg. declined 5.5 cents to $2.705. The prompt month has repeatedly bumped up against the $3.00 threshold in recent sessions but failed to close above it. Futures remain well off the 2021 high of $3.316 reached in February amid the spike in demand caused by Winter Storm Uri. However, they are well above the spring season low near $2.450 early last month. LNG feed gas levels approached 11.7 Bcf on Thursday, hanging close to record levels. Cool weather and waning supplies in Europe continue to fuel strong demand for U.S. exports. Demand from Asia remains elevated, too, analysts said. Refinitiv analyst Shuya Li, participating on The Desk’s online energy platform Enelyst, said cargo cancellations, a challenge amid the coronavirus pandemic in summer 2020, are unlikely this year with demand holding steady at lofty levels. U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico also are near record levels – regularly approaching 7 Bcf/d. “This summer, overall pipeline exports will be nearly 0.8 Bcf/d higher year-on-year,” Li estimated. Export activity helped keep overall natural gas demand solid during the week ended April 30, the period covered by the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest storage report. The agency on Thursday posted an injection of 60 Bcf into storage for the week. The print came in a few ticks below expectations, but it failed to galvanize market support. Analysts on The Desk said traders likely noted that the result was four times greater than the week earlier injection and that it signaled larger injections to come in May. Early estimates for next week’s report were for builds in the 70s-80s Bcf. For this week’s print, estimates generated by Reuters and Bloomberg polls landed at medians of 65 Bcf, while a Wall Street Journal survey produced an average of 62 Bcf. NGI’s model predicted a 76 Bcf increase. Last year, EIA recorded a 103 Bcf injection for the similar week, and the five-year average is an 81 Bcf build. The build for the April 30 week lifted inventories to 1,958 Bcf, though the total was well below the year-earlier level of 2,303 Bcf and slightly below the five-year average of 2,019 Bcf. By region, the South Central build of 20 Bcf led all others. The Midwest and East regions followed closely with builds of 15 Bcf and 13 Bcf, respectively, according to EIA. Pacific inventories grew by 7 Bcf, while Mountain region stocks increased by 5 Bcf.
U.S. natgas futures rise on cooler forecasts next week (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose on forecasts for cooler weather and higher heating demand next week than previously expected. That lack of price movement came despite forecasts for milder weather in mid May, a small decline in exports and an even smaller increase in output so far this month. Front-month gas futures NGc1 rose 3.0 cents, or 1.0%, to settle at $2.958 per million British thermal units. For the week, the front-month was up over 1%, putting the contract on track for its fourth week of gains in a row for the first time since February. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 90.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, up from 90.6 bcfd in April, but well below November 2019's monthly record of 95.4 bcfd. Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would rise from 87.2 bcfd this week to 88.1 bcfd next week as temperatures decline before falling to 84.7 bcfd as the weather turns milder. The forecast for next week was higher than Refinitiv estimated on Thursday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants averaged 11.4 bcfd so far in May, down from April's monthly record of 11.5 bcfd. Buyers around the world continue to purchase near-record amounts of U.S. gas because prices in Europe and Asia remain high enough to justify the cost of buying and transporting the U.S. fuel across the ocean.
US working gas storage capacity increases marginally in 2020: EIA | S&P Global Platts - Although total US working gas storage capacity has remained mostly static in the last two years, strong production and less price volatility has reduced the need for investing into additional underground storage. US natural gas' demonstrated peak storage capacity declined slightly year over year in 2020, while total working gas capacity increased marginally, according to the US Energy Information Administration's annual storage report. "Working natural gas design capacity increased by 5 Bcf in the South Central region," the report said. "The most notable increase in the region was the 4.2 Bcf gain reported for the Egan Storage Dome by Egan Hub Partners. Dewatering the salt cavern raised the capacity of this field." Demonstrated peak storage capacity represents the highest amount of working gas recorded. Working natural gas design capacity means the maximum amount of working gas that could feasibly be injected into storage. Demonstrated peak capacity from December 2015 through November 2020 totaled 4.253 Tcf. The South Central region had the highest demonstrated peak capacity volume of 1.439 Tcf of all five regions. However, at 1.186 Tcf in the Midwest region, it was at 97% of maximum capacity compared with 93% reached in South Central. It was the second consecutive year in which Midwest stocks nearly reached peak capacity. Data by S&P Global Platts Analytics demonstrates the region is already showing strong injection activity early in the season. Injections in the first half of April averaged 1.4 Bcf/d, 399 MMcf/d above 2020 and the strongest for the time in at least six years. Temperatures, however, dropped later in the month and brought injections for the entire month to their weakest since 2017 at 1.4 Bcf/d. However, injections did ramp up at the end of the month, leading to another remarkable start to May injections, at 4.4 Bcf/d month to date. Platts Analytics expects this to mellow slightly, with an average of 4.1 Bcf/d this month, up roughly 700 MMcf/d year on year. The EIA report finds several trends in recent years have reduced the necessity for investing in new underground storage. Higher levels of natural gas production compared with a few years ago may have reduced some customers' need to withdraw from storage to meet their natural gas needs. Gas price volatility has declined in recent years. The seasonal spread between summer and winter gas prices has shrunk, reducing economic incentives to inject supply into reservoir and aquifer storage. Also, midstream investment has enhanced grid interconnectedness and flexibility. However, growing demand in gas-fired power generation as well as ever-increasing exports via LNG terminals and pipelines to Mexico could increase the need for additional storage, especially in the South Central region. In April, exports to Mexico reached record levels just shy of 7 Bcf/d, Platts Analytics' data shows. The record-setting volumes were accompanied by population-weighted temperatures in the upper 70s Fahrenheit, about 5 degrees above normal, and by a spike in electric cooling demand.
Eastern Kentucky oil refinery exceeds EPA emissions limit for cancer-causing chemical -- An oil refinery in Eastern Kentucky exceeded federal emissions standards for a chemical known to cause cancer.According to a report by the non-profit watchdog group Environmental Integrity Project, Catlettsburg Marathon in Boyd County exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s benzene action level by 53% in 2020. The net concentration was 13.8 micrograms per cubic meter — the EPA’s action level is nine micrograms a year.In a one-year span, the concentration of benzene grew by 344% at Catlettsburg Marathon.The refinery has been a major polluter in the Tri-State area for decades, according to Robin Blakeman, an Ohio Valley Environmental Coalition organizer.Benzene is a carcinogen that can contribute to cancer of the blood cells and respiratory ailments. The report stated benzene is one of the most dangerous pollutants released by oil refineries and petrochemical plants.The EIP report documented high levels of benzene at 13 refineries, many of them surrounded by communities with high amounts of poverty. On average, 43% were in poverty and 57% were people of color.“We have President (Joe) Biden saying that environmental justice will be at the center of everything and we are suggesting today the administration start here,” said Eric Schaeffer, director of EIP. “This is a great place to start keeping that promise.”About 11,500 residents live within three miles of the Catlettsburg refinery, of that 45% are living below the national poverty level.“Unfortunately, due to high poverty levels in this area, the health risks of toxic chemicals like benzene are often ignored,” Blakeman said in a statement. “Once again, Appalachian communities are considered acceptable sacrifice zones.”
Byhalia Pipeline rally ahead of Memphis City Council vote — Boxtown and Westwood neighbors are continuing to put pressure on elected officials to stop the Byhalia Pipeline. Members of those communities rallied Saturday afternoon to continue bringing awareness to a potential health crisis that will affect many marginalized Memphis neighborhoods. On Tuesday, the Memphis City Council is expected to vote on a city ordinance that would limit new pipeline projects with oil or "hazardous" liquids from being built or expanded within city limits. Neighbors and critics, like Dr. Roz Nichols of Memphis Interfaith Coalition for Action and Hope are concerned if the pipeline project is approved by the Memphis City Council, it will contaminate the water in Memphis and parts of northern Mississippi. "We will remain steadfast, unmovable, always abounding in the work of justice determined to save what is ours," Nichols said. Nichols said the predominantly Black and low-income communities that would be affected will not back down to the oil companies. "Boxtown is a community of people," Nichols said. "They will not be silenced, they will not be overlooked, they will not be dismissed because they are people and people matter." The Southern Environmental Law Center sent a letter to the state of Tennessee on Thursday urging them to stop the Byhalia Pipeline claiming it's "unneeded." It further claimed the Byhalia Pipeline did not disclose the existence of the Collierville Connection Pipeline, which would eliminate a need for a new one. "If the company had disclosed the Collierville Connection Pipeline, the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation (TDEC or Department) would have been required to evaluate it as an alternative to the construction of the Byhalia Connection Pipeline because the use of an existing pipeline or pipeline route has the potential to avoid and minimize new impacts on waters of the State, including streams, wetlands, and groundwater," The Southern Environmental Law Center stated in the letter. "Use of an existing pipeline would also avoid impacts on residents along a new path." Neighbors said they will not stop fighting for justice and a quality of life they think everyone deserves. "This fight is not over by a long shot!" Boxtown neighbor Batsell Booker said.
Charity or manipulation? Memphis nonprofits discuss, defend accepting donations from Byhalia Pipeline - - Byhalia Pipeline arrived in Memphis with gifts in one hand and plans for a crude oil pipeline in the other and called both community investments. But what is charity to the Texas corporation is manipulation to critics, who see it as a tactic to buy support and weaken opposition to the project.Byhalia Pipeline, a joint venture of Plains All American Pipeline and Valero Energy Corporation, has donated over $1 million to Mid-South community development corporations, church-affiliated groups and other nonprofit organizations over the past year. The proposed route of the Byhalia Connection Pipeline is through several Black Southwest Memphis communities that are already surrounded by polluting industries.(See which organizations kept donations from Byhalia Connection Pipeline, who returned the money and who didn’t respond.)Critics have called the plan environmental racism and say the route poses a risk to theMemphis Sand aquifer, where the city draws its water. Byhalia Pipeline disputes those assertions.Since the proposed project’s announcement in 2019, the company has formed a community advisory board and handed out donations to a range of organizations, including the NAACP Memphis Branch, Uplift Westwood CDC, the Mid-South Food Bank, the Memphis Library Foundation and a group building a memorial to Black journalist Ida B. Wells. There was no requirement to support the pipeline to receive the donation, officials of some organizations said.The NAACP and MCAP will host a rally against the pipeline at 2 p.m. Saturday at Alonzo Weaver Park, next to Mitchell High School, 658 W. Mitchell Road. Attendees should park at the school.But gifts with no apparent strings attached is a well-known tactic used by fossil fuel companies to manipulate communities, according to a reportreleased this month by the national NAACP Environmental and Climate Justice Program.“Co-opting can be used as a tactic to neutralize or weaken public opposition,” according to the second edition of “Fossil Fueled Foolery: An Illustrated Primer on the Fossil Fuel Industry’s Deceptive Tactics.”“It creates deceptive alliances with local churches, non-profit organizations, and other groups by offering financial support in the form of charitable contributions, gifts, and endowments,” the report says.
Memphis pipeline faces environmental justice reckoning -- Monday, May 3, 2021 -- — The Byhalia Connection pipeline, a 50-mile oil conduit planned to run through and around Memphis, has come under fire from environmental groups and community activists. Opponents are also seeking to harness deep-seated resentment from years of pollution from the heavy industry that flanks the city's heavily Black southwest corner.
Byhalia pipeline: Environmental groups demand TN agency withdraw construction permit - A coalition of environmental groups that oppose the Byhalia Connection pipelinehave written a letter demanding the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation to revoke or suspend its permit for the planned project.The letter is one of many moves in the fight over the nearly 45-mile crude oil pipeline which would pass through mostly Black neighborhoods as it run from Memphis to Marshall County, Mississippi.Opponents have raised concerns about several environmental issues, including potential damage to the area's underground water supply.The letter comes from the groups Memphis Community Against Pollution, Protect Our Aquifer and Tennessee Chapter Sierra Club.Plains All American Pipeline is seeking to build the pipeline in partnership with Valero Energy Corp. The letter says the pipeline companies withheld crucial information during their application to the state."Specifically, Byhalia failed to disclose the existence of the Collierville Connection Pipeline, a crude oil pipeline that already connects the Diamond Pipeline and the Capline Pipeline—the same two pipelines proposed to be connected by the Byhalia Connection Pipeline.""If the company had disclosed the Collierville Connection Pipeline, the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation . . . would have been required to evaluate it as an alternative to the construction of the Byhalia Connection Pipeline because the use of an existing pipeline or pipeline route has the potential to avoid and minimize new impacts on waters of the State, including streams, wetlands, and groundwater. Use of an existing pipeline would also avoid impacts on residents along a new path."Efforts to reach a representative of the pipeline organizations were not successful late Friday. The company has argued the pipeline can be constructed and operated safely. The state agency declined to comment. "We cannot comment due to pending litigation," said spokesman Eric Ward.
Memphis City Council delays vote to halt Byhalia Connection pipeline -- The Memphis City Council won’t vote on an ordinance that would regulate high-volume pipelines, including the Byhalia Connection pipeline, until at least July.The council held the ordinance in question Tuesday after the council’s attorney Allan Wade said the measure raised “constitutional” concerns and the city could lose litigation related to it.When the council decided to hold the pipeline ordinance, Plains All American, the developer of the Byhalia pipeline project, verbally agreed to dismiss eminent domain and condemnation proceedings already underway in Shelby County. Representatives of Plains told the council that the project would pause and that it would communicate directly with city attorneys to come to an agreement.Wade said the ordinance, which proponents had said would not prevent Byhalia from proceeding, would in fact stop the pipeline. If the intention of the council was to stop the pipeline, Wade said, they should just do it and avoid any unintended consequences of a broad ordinance.
Builders of contested Memphis pipeline weigh route changes -- Wednesday, May 5, 2021 -- Plains All American Pipeline LP says it is considering changing the route of its proposed Byhalia Connection oil pipeline in the Memphis, Tenn., area and has agreed to pause its work on the pipeline for two months.
Abandoned wells a drag on Arkansas --Professors and ecologists Matthew Moran and Maureen McClung started their research with the Fayetteville Shale in North-Central Arkansas around 2019, examining how the wells and their infrastructure were affecting the landscape and the economic costs associated with those impacts. "These costs are often not part of the conversation," McClung said. "We saw a need to make a case that restoration should be happening after these oil and gas wells run dry, because they basically just exist on the landscape and are doing no good for anybody. It was pretty astounding the number of wells we found sitting useless." In the mid-2000s, companies arrived in droves and started drilling for natural gas from the Fayetteville Shale, a formation that stretches across the state to the Mississippi River. Drilling peaked in 2008, but development of new wells declined rapidly, hitting near zero by 2016. The Hendrix researchers found almost one-fifth of the more than 6,230 wells in the Fayetteville Shale were nonproducing in 2020. However, many of them are on well pads that still support other producing wells, and therefore are not currently restorable. This was far from the first well boom in the state, though. Thousands of wells dot the landscape of southern Arkansas -- reminders of the beginning of commercial oil production in the state and jobs that put food on the tables in towns like El Dorado and Smackover during the Great Depression. By 1925, the Smackover field had become the largest-producing oil site in the world, according to the American Oil and Gas Historical Society. Lands with nonproducing wells can sit unrestored for years, even decades. Old wells can leak methane gas and contaminate groundwater, and they are safety hazards for wildlife and communities alike. But what's being lost from these lands can be difficult to quantify financially. For its work, the Hendrix team looked at agricultural production and carbon storage. The researchers estimated that restoring the 2 million acres across the nation would cost $7 billion but return $21 billion to the economy over the next 50 years. Agriculture makes up two-thirds of that value.
Groups sue over US program allowing pipelines on wetlands (AP) — Environmentalists have filed a new legal challenge to a U.S. government program that allows oil and gas pipelines to be built across wetlands, rivers and other bodies of water. The lawsuit filed Monday in U.S. District Court in Great Falls, Montana, alleges that the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has let companies skirt environmental reviews of potential spills by granting a blanket construction permit to the industry. The Center for Biological Diversity, Sierra Club and other groups behind the litigation won a court order last year that temporarily blocked the program, known as Nationwide Permit 12. U.S. District Judge Brian Morris said officials did not adequately consult with wildlife agencies about pipelines’ potential harm to drinking water supplies and imperiled plants and animals. The Army Corps issued a new permit in January, saying it expects the permit to be used more than 8,000 times a year and affect 615 acres (249 hectares) annually of wetlands and other bodies of water. The groups behind Monday’s lawsuit said the agency failed to consider how that work could affect endangered sturgeon, whooping cranes and other wildlife that depend on wetlands. The permit can be used only for pipeline crossings that disturb a half-acre or less of steams or wetlands. Critics say that ignores the cumulative effects from hundreds of individual water crossings along a major pipeline’s route. The Army Corps has issued nationwide permits since the mid-1970s, and they were put into law in 1977 under Democratic President Jimmy Carter, according to the Congressional Research Service. But opposition to pipelines has grown more intense in recent years as the industry has been pulled into a broader debate over climate-changing greenhouse gases that come from burning the fossil fuels the lines carry. Sierra Club attorney Doug Hayes said the permit program has become “a tool for corporate polluters to fast-track climate-destroying oil and gas pipelines and exempt them from critical environmental reviews.”
Colonial pipeline: Cyberattack forces major US fuel pipeline to shut down - A cyberattack forced the temporary shut down of one of the US' largest pipelines Friday, highlighting already heightened concerns over the vulnerabilities in the nation's critical infrastructure. The operator, Colonial Pipeline, which transports more than 100 million gallons of gasoline and other fuel daily from Houston to the New York Harbor, according to its website, said it learned of the cyberattack on Friday, causing them to pause operations. "In response, we proactively took certain systems offline to contain the threat, which has temporarily halted all pipeline operations, and affected some of our IT systems," the company said in a statement. Colonial said it engaged a third-party cybersecurity firm to launch an investigation into the "nature and scope of this incident" and also contacted law enforcement and other federal agencies. CNN has reached out to the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency for comment. The attack comes amid rising concerns over the cybersecurity vulnerabilities in America's critical infrastructure following recent incidents, and after the Biden administration last month launched an effort to beef up cybersecurity in the nation's power grid, calling for industry leaders to install technologies that could thwart attacks on the electricity supply. Colonial said Friday that it's "taking steps to understand and resolve this issue." "At this time, our primary focus is the safe and efficient restoration of our service and our efforts to return to normal operation. This process is already underway, and we are working diligently to address this matter and to minimize disruption to our customers and those who rely on Colonial Pipeline," the company said. Colonial, founded in 1962, says it transports about 45% of all fuel consumed on the East Coast. The pipeline system that spans more than 5,500 miles has two main lines: one for gasoline and another for things like diesel and jet fuel.
U.S. pipeline operator that transports 45% of East Coast fuel shuts entire network after cyberattack - Top U.S. fuel pipeline operator Colonial Pipeline has shut its entire network after a cyber attack, the company said in a statement on Friday. Colonial's network supplies fuel from U.S refiners on the Gulf Coast to the populous eastern and southern United States. The company transports 2.5 million barrels per day of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and other refined products through 5,500 miles (8,850 km) of pipelines. Colonial Pipeline says it transports 45% of East Coast fuel supply. The malicious software used in a cyberattack was ransomware, a type of malware that is designed to lock down systems by encrypting data and demanding payment to regain access, two cybersecurity industry sources said. The malware has grown in popularity over the last five years and is most often deployed by cybercriminal groups. The company learned of the attack on Friday and took systems offline to contain the threat, it said in the statement. That action has temporarily halted operations and affected some of its IT systems, it said. The company has engaged a third-party cybersecurity firm to launch an investigation, and Colonial has contacted law enforcement and other federal agencies, it said. Colonial did not give further details or say for how long its pipelines would be shut. Reuters reported earlier on Friday that Colonial had shut its main gasoline and distillate lines. During the trading session on Friday, Gulf Coast cash prices for gasoline and diesel edged lower. Longer-term price effects will depend on the amount of time that the lines are shut. If barrels are not able to make it onto the lines, Gulf Coast prices could weaken further, while prices in New York Harbor could rise, one market participant said. Colonial significantly shut down its gasoline and distillate lines during Hurricane Harvey, which hit the Gulf Coast in 2017. During that time, spot Gulf Coast gasoline prices rose to a five-year high, while diesel prices rose to around a four-year high.
Sempra likely to delay decision on Texas LNG project until next year - Sempra Energy — a big player in the global liquefied natural gas export market — said Wednesday during its first-quarter earnings call that the company will likely make a final investment decision on building a proposed LNG facility near Port Arthur, Texas, in 2022 instead of this year. Sempra officials cited the continued impacts of the pandemic on worldwide energy markets and a focus on reducing the project’s greenhouse gas emissions for the potential delay but said they remain bullish on the economics of sending LNG overseas to countries eager to replace coal with natural gas. “The consultants we work with think that by 2030 you could see the market climb to about 550 million tons per annum and today it’s around 365, so we’re pretty optimistic about where we’re at in terms of our development portfolio.,” said Sempra CEO Jeff Martin. Commercial activity for large-scale LNG projects have slowed since COVID-19 affected the global economy and the first phase of Port Arthur project, estimated at 11 million metric tons per year, is a big one that would have to be built at a site without any existing infrastructure, which would add to construction costs. ADVERTISEMENT Sempra is already the majority owner of the $10 billion Cameron LNG facility on the Louisiana Gulf Coast — that has plans to expand — and the company’s subsidiary in Mexico, IEnova, recently received approval from the Mexican government to add an export component to the already existing Energía Costa Azul LNG facility in Ensenada. The potential for “greening up of the value chain,” as Martin put it, comes as LNG exporters in the U.S look to blunt criticism of the climate impacts of natural gas, a fossil fuel. In November, the French power company Engie backed out on a $7 billion deal with an LNG firm, reportedly because the government of France — which owns 24 percent of Engie — had environmental concerns about methane leaks and hydraulic fracturing of natural gas at U.S. sites. Earlier this week, Cheniere Energy and Royal Dutch Shell announced they had collaborated to ship a cargo of LNG it called “carbon-neutral” from Cheniere’s Sabine Pass LNG facility in Louisiana that was delivered to Europe in early April, using offsets bought from Shell.
Florida Congress members call to end oil drilling in Big Cypress - A handful of Congress members from Florida are urging a federal agency to deny oil drilling permits in the Big Cypress National Preserve. A letter, sent April 23 by Democratic Congress members Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Ted Deutch, Lois Frankel, Charlie Crist and Frederica Wilson to the Department of the Interior, asks for a full environmental impact statement for two oil extraction permits in the preserve. Burnett Oil Co., based in Texas, filed the permits through the Florida Department of Environmental Protection. The state agency recently took over a federal application process to dredge and fill within wetlands. Burnett is leasing land from Collier Resources Co., which owns the subsurface mineral rights in the preserve. Alia Faraj, spokeswoman for Burnett, previously told Naples Daily News the company’s efforts to minimize environmental impacts will create a net-zero impact on wetlands. The letter was addressed to the department’s deputy director of operations, Shawn Benge, and new Fish and Wildlife and Parks Assistant Secretary Shannon Estenoz. Estenoz was an advocate for Everglades restoration under the Obama administration and worked as the Everglades Foundation’s chief operating officer. Melissa Abdo, Sun Coast regional director for the National Parks Conservation Association, said Big Cypress is an iconic preserve and oil permits should not be allowed. “We’re hopeful DOI’s new leadership is going to have an eye toward implementing what (President) Biden committed to: A clear commitment to halt new oil and gas permitting on public lands,” Abdo said.
One of America's most powerful oil lobbyists tours Louisiana to fight the offshore drilling ban - Fearful that a temporary ban on new federal leases onshore and offshore won't be lifted and could become permanent, the top executive for the American Petroleum Association has been in Louisiana this week voicing a desire to sway the Biden administration towards softening what they consider abrupt policies against fossil fuels. Mike Sommers, chief executive officer of the American Petroleum Institute, got the whirlwind tour of Louisiana in recent days, meeting with membership companies and politicians who are vying to sway the Biden administration towards softening what they consider abrupt policies against fossil fuels. Sommers was able to sample plenty of local crawfish, tour a massive liquefied natural gas export terminal and see a wetland supported using oil and gas money, while voicing his top concern that a temporary ban on federal leases onshore and offshore won't be lifted, ever. "There's a saying in Washington that there's nothing more permanent than a temporary program," Sommers said. While it doesn't impact the ability for companies to operate on private land, the environmental stewardship push now may stunt the industry for decades to come, he said. API's members include Exxon Mobil, Shell, Chevron and BP, among others on the extraction and refinery side of the petrochemical pipeline. The long-term impact for the oil and gas sector in the Gulf of Mexico is unclear. All oil and gas exploration offshore are federal waters, requiring leases auctioned off and royalties collected in exchange for extraction of public natural resources. After multinational giants work through existing projects, which could take years, the drilling ban eventually could catch up if the work and the money dries up. "Fossil fuels are not the enemy; greenhouse gas emissions are the enemy," Sommers said. The fossil fuel lobbyist pushed back on claims the coronavirus pandemic marked the "peak" for oil demand, when workers stayed home and took Zoom meetings for months instead of traveling. The International Energy Agency estimated global demand before the pandemic was 100 million barrels of oil each day in 2019. "In the worst part of the pandemic, in April of last year, the world was still consuming 81 (million) barrels of oil every single day. We basically shut down the world economy and we were still using 80% of what we were using pre-pandemic," he said. "And we're getting close to the point now where we're getting back to that 100 (million) barrels."
Velesto Provides Update on Sunken Rig --Velesto Energy Berhad has provided an update on the Velesto Naga 7 rig, which was revealed to have submerged on May 4. The company announced on Thursday that the focus remains on rescue, evacuation, and recovery efforts and revealed that all 101 personnel on-board the rig had been transferred safely to Miri, Sarawak. As of Thursday, Velesto Energy highlighted that it was unable to estimate the overall financial impact on the group from the incident but outlined that it expects this to be mitigated as the rig is “adequately insured”. Velesto Energy said it is working closely with the client and insurers and providing full cooperation to the relevant authorities. The company also noted that other businesses of the group are operating as usual, including the other six rigs in its fleet. The Naga 7 rig sinkage occurred due to “oil rapid penetration”, according to Velesto Energy, which highlighted back in March that the rig had secured a deal with ConocoPhillips Sarawak Limited and ConocoPhillips Sarawak Oil Limited with a tentative start date sometime in the first half of this year. The contract included the drilling of up to three wells using the Naga 7, which has a drilling depth capability of 30,000 feet and a rated operating water depth of 375 feet, Velesto Energy reveals on its website. ConocoPhillips did not immediately respond to an emailed request sent by Rigzone on Thursday asking for a statement on the incident. Velesto Energy’s wholly owned rig fleet comprises the Naga2, Naga 3, Naga 4, Naga 5, Naga 6, Naga 7, and Naga 8 jack-up drilling rigs. The company, which was formerly known as UMW Oil & Gas Corporation Berhad, also has four hydraulic workover units comprising the Gait 1, Gait 2, Gait 5, and Gait 6.
Hearings on proposed oil and gas waste disposal facility in San Augustine County to begin Tuesday (KTRE) - This wooded property in San Augustine County is selected by a Montana company for the construction of an oil and gas waste disposal facility.Tomorrow morning, a hearing on a permit request by PA Prospect begins before the Texas Railroad Commission in Austin.Resident Ann Bridges, who lives across the road from one of three properties owned by the company and Director of Friends of Lake Sam Rayburn Amanda Haralson explain their interest in the proceedings.On Monday afternoon, PA Prospect released a statement on the matter.“The purpose of the administrative hearing is to ensure that site, design, construction and operation of the proposed facility in San Augustine County meets all regulatory standards required by the regulating state agency, the Railroad Commission of Texas. A license must ensure that the facility is designed and constructed with state-of-the-art and robust engineering features (including multiple liner systems and leachate detection and collection systems) so that surface and subsurface water is not endangered. The Railroad Commission licenses these types of oil-and-gas-waste-only facilities that handle the oil and gas industry’s liquid and solid wastes (primarily produced salt water, and drill cuttings which are mostly soil) across the state of Texas.”The hearing is scheduled for three weeks with PA Prospect the first to present testimony. The meeting is via zoom.
Exxon CEO says advancing U.S. carbon capture project with rivals, government -(Reuters) - Exxon Mobil Corp is advancing a carbon capture and storage project along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico through talks with rivals and government officials, Chief Executive Darren Woods said in an interview on Friday. The largest U.S. oil producer this month floated a public-private initiative that would collect and sequester planet-warming carbon dioxide emissions from petrochemical plants along the Houston Ship Channel, a 50-mile (80-km) long waterway that is part of the Port of Houston. Woods declined to identify by name the businesses Exxon hopes to attract to the project, saying he aims to lure the region's top 50 CO2 emitters, and is lobbying federal, state and local officials for support. "I've been very involved with conversations with the mayor and the local government officials in Houston, with the governor and officials here in Texas, and at the federal level in the administration on this opportunity," Woods said in an interview. It would cost at least $100 billion from companies and government agencies to finance a project that could store 50 million tonnes of CO2 by 2030 and double that amount by 2040, Exxon has said. Exxon and U.S. rivals Chevron Corp and Occidental Petroleum are "uniquely positioned to scale" carbon capture and storage technology, said Morgan Stanley analyst Devin McDermott in a report on Friday. The Houston Ship Channel proposal would require "new policies to drive investment," he said. The project faces enormous hurdles, including financing and support from government agencies for permitting and carbon regulations. The proposal arose as Exxon faces a proxy fight over its plan to increase fossil fuel production that could greatly expand its carbon emissions. Activist hedge fund Engine No. 1 is battling the company over four board seats and the company's strategic direction. ./p>
ExxonMobil begins lockout of hundreds of Texas oil workers --Oil giant ExxonMobil initiated a lockout of more than 650 workers at its Beaumont, Texas refinery and blending and packaging plant on Saturday morning after negotiations broke down between the company and the United Steelworkers (USW) union. USW officials agreed to the “orderly transfer” of the workers off of ExxonMobil’s property and have not called an official strike. USW Local 13-243 and ExxonMobil met Friday night and Saturday morning, attempting to come to an agreement before the lockout began. By 1 p.m. Saturday, union representatives said more than 200 workers on their regular shift had been escorted out of the facility, two at a time. Some workers reported they had been forced to leave the property as early as the night before. The USW and ExxonMobil began bargaining a new contract on January 11. The company demanded workers accept a proposal which included major changes to workers’ safety, job security, and seniority rights. On April 23, ExxonMobil announced its intention to lock workers out on May 1 if they did not agree to the givebacks. The USW asked for the current contract to be extended by a year, but ExxonMobil said it would not do so and demanded that the USW bring its contract proposal to a vote. The USW, knowing that workers would overwhelmingly reject another concessionary contract, opted instead to let the company lock out its members. Workers gathered at a lot adjacent to the refinery and formed a picket line Saturday morning, carrying signs denouncing ExxonMobil’s actions. Health and safety are major concerns for workers at the plant and a major reason an agreement has not been reached. ExxonMobil claimed health and safety demands put forward by workers “would significantly increase costs” and limit its ability to remain competitive. Last October, ExxonMobil, which had a market valuation of $174 billion at the end of 2020, suspended its contribution to employees’ 401(k) pension plans, citing the effects of the pandemic. At the time, a company spokeswoman said, “ExxonMobil’s total remuneration remains competitive despite the suspension.” Oilworkers have been devastated by the COVID-19 pandemic. The slowdown of the global economy sharply drove down oil prices in early 2020, initiating a wave of mass layoffs in the oil sector. More than 118,000 energy workers were laid off worldwide between March and July in 2020, accounting for 15.5 percent of the industry’s workforce. Combined with the 200,000 job cuts from 2014-16, amid another crash in oil prices, the losses are staggering. One of the most common causes of accidents as reported by workers is understaffing. Jobs in the oil industry are physically demanding and workers normally see 12-hour shifts plus overtime. Hazardous materials and heavy machinery create an environment with a high potential for workplace injury. More than 1,500 oil rig workers died on the job between 2008 and 2017. .
Lockout of hundreds of oil workers continues in Beaumont, Texas -- Days after ExxonMobil locked out more than 600 employees from its Beaumont, Texas refinery and packaging plant, United Steelworkers (USW) union leadership and the company have not met to negotiate a contract since Friday. ExxonMobil and the USW have been negotiating since January, but ExxonMobil claimed workers’ health and safety demands “would significantly increase costs.” The company released a statement stating it had been bargaining “in good faith,” but negotiations have yet to resume. The oil company escorted USW Local 13-243 members from the plant on Saturday after union officials organized an “orderly transfer” of the workers off of the premises. ExxonMobil said it barred workers from entering because of the union’s refusal to call for a vote on a contract proposal and fear that workers might go on strike. Days before the lockout, the company brought in managers from other facilities and hired temporary workers as replacements to keep the facility running. After the USW handed over the plant to corporate management, workers formed a picket line at a lot adjacent to the plant. USW District 13 Representative Richard “Hoot” Landry told the Beaumont Enterprise Monday that the union scheduled picket activities outside the refineries and he had been meeting with district leadership. Landry said talks had been focused on workers’ benefits. “Workers will receive at least one more check from (ExxonMobil), but we are doing everything we can right now to secure resources from our international union and local communities within the state of Texas to provide benefits to our membership.” Union officials at the plant said they sent a request to the USW international leadership to help striking workers by tapping into the strike and defense fund, financed by union dues to support workers during strike activity. Landry also stated the local union reached out to the Texas Workforce Commission to secure approval for unemployment benefits for locked out workers. Landry claimed ExxonMobil locked out workers because the company wanted to maintain control of the situation. However, he admitted the union never wanted a work stoppage and actively worked to avoid one. By preventing a strike the USW has given all the initiative in the situation to the energy giant. Neither the USW nor ExxonMobil has publicly revealed specific details in the conflict over a new contract, but company officials said there was strong disagreement between the two sides.
Texas freeze delivers billions in profits to gas and power sellers (Reuters) - Natural gas suppliers, pipeline companies and banks that trade commodities have emerged as the biggest market winners from February's U.S. winter blast that roiled gas and power markets, according to more than two dozen interviews and quarterly earnings reports. The deep freeze caught Texas's utilities off-guard, killed more than 100 people and left 4.5 million without power. Demand for heat pushed wholesale power costs to 400 times the usual amount and propelled natural gas prices to record highs, forcing utilities and consumers to pay exorbitant bills. After the storm, few companies wanted to talk about their financial gains, unwilling to be seen as profiting off others' hardships. But a clearer picture is emerging from quarterly earnings and as utility companies smarting from big bills sue to recoup their losses. The biggest winners were companies with access to supplies, including leading energy trader Vitol, gas suppliers Kinder Morgan
Dallas pipeline giant Energy Transfer made $2.4 billion as Texas winter storm’s biggest winner --Dallas-based Energy Transfer LP, the pipeline giant controlled by billionaire Kelcy Warren, has emerged as the biggest winner so far from the deadly winter storm that paralyzed Texas in February. The company saw a positive earnings impact from the extreme weather of about $2.4 billion, it said Thursday in its first-quarter earnings statement. Energy Transfer raised its full-year earnings guidance to as much as $13.3 billion, from up to $11 billion previously. The stock jumped as much as 3.6% in after-hours trading. Energy Transfer joins a growing list of gas market players who reaped windfalls totaling almost $5 billion amid the chaos of the storm. Plunging prices and power cuts interrupted the normal flow of gas from many wells. Market players with available supplies were able to sell at sky-high spot prices. Speculation over the extent of Energy Transfer’s gains began soon after the storm when co-chief executive officer Marshall McCrea told investors in a conference call that the company had done “exceptionally well” as a dramatic gas shortage spurred demand for the supplies held in the company’s storage facilities. The fossil-fuel hauler was sued by CPS Energy, a Texas utility, in the immediate aftermath of the crisis for allegedly charging a natural gas price more than 15,000% higher than normal. Energy Transfer rejected the claims. “During the storm, employees manned facilities 24 hours a day, ET’s transmission lines remained fully operational and the Partnership did everything within its control to keep plants running and field compression idling so that ET would be prepared to deliver natural gas to facilities throughout Texas for residential consumption and power generation,” the company said in the statement. Kinder Morgan Inc., another pipeline operator, said last month the storm had a $1 billion positive impact on its results. BP PLC also reported an “exceptional” quarter in gas trading; while it didn’t break out more detail, one Citigroup Inc. analyst estimated BP’s Texas-related gain easily exceeded $1 billion, Meanwhile Australian investment bank Macquarie Group Ltd. pocketed $210 million. Energy Transfer operates over 90,000 miles of pipelines and related infrastructure spanning 38 states and Canada. The company posted a record quarterly net income of $3.29 billion in the first quarter, far exceeding the $820.5 million average of analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The company lost $854 million a year earlier.
ENERGY MARKETS: Texas freeze exacted worse toll than estimated on U.S. oil -- Monday, May 3, 2021 -- An Arctic cold blast that swept through the U.S. South in February caused a much bigger loss in oil supply than previously estimated, with output falling to a three-year low, according to U.S. government data.
Stanford scientists map local earthquake risks from Eagle Ford fracking - Hydraulic fracturing to extract trapped fossil fuels can trigger earthquakes. Most are so small or far from homes and infrastructure that they may go unnoticed; others can rattle windows, sway light fixtures and jolt people from sleep; some have damaged buildings. Stanford University geophysicists have simulated and mapped the risk of noticeable shaking and possible building damage from earthquakes caused by hydraulic fracturing at all potential fracking sites across the Eagle Ford shale formation in Texas, which has hosted some of the largest fracking-triggered earthquakes in the United States. Published April 29 in Science, the results show the most densely populated areas – particularly a narrow section of the Eagle Ford nestled between San Antonio and Houston – face the greatest risk of experiencing shaking strong enough to damage buildings or be felt by people. “We found that risks from nuisance or damage varies greatly across space, depending mostly on population density,” said lead study author Ryan Schultz, a PhD student in geophysics at Stanford. Tens of thousands of wells drilled in the vast formation over the past decade helped to fuel the U.S. shale boom and contributed to a dramatic increase in earthquakes in the central and eastern U.S. starting around 2009. Although damaging earthquakes are rare, the authors write, “the perceived risks of hydraulic fracturing have both caused public concern and impeded industry development.”In sparsely populated areas within the southwestern portion of the Eagle Ford, the researchers found damage is unlikely even if fracking causes earthquakes as large as magnitude 5.0. Allowing such powerful quakes, however, could jeopardize the “social license to operate,” they write. The phrase, which emerged within the mining industry in the 1990s and has since been adopted by climate activists, refers to the unofficial acceptance by local community members and broader civil society that oil, gas and mining operations need to do business without costly conflicts.“Seismicity is part of the social license for hydraulic fracturing, but far from the only issue,” said study co-author Bill Ellsworth, a geophysics research professor at Stanford’s School of Earth, Energy & Environmental Sciences (Stanford Earth). “Eliminating hydraulic fracturing seismicity altogether wouldn’t change any of the other concerns.”Among those concerns are health threats from living near oil and gas wells and greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel production and use. California’s recent announcement of plans to stop issuing new permits for hydraulic fracturing by 2024, for example, comes as part of an effort to phase out oil extraction and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Montana, Kansas, and Arkansas enter the arms race to criminalize protests | Grist -- Jestin Dupree had driven more than 400 miles from the Fort Peck Indian Reservation in northeastern Montana to the state’s capital, Helena, to testify against legislation that could be used to jail environmental protesters. For years, his tribe had been protesting the Keystone XL pipeline, which was to cross the Missouri River, their main source of water. Montana’s new legislation, however, would allow environmental protesters to be jailed for up to 18 months if they obstruct operations at oil and gas facilities — and up to 30 years if they damage equipment. It seemed to be a direct rebuke to the Indigenous activism that had helped stop Keystone XL.The state lawmaker championing the bill, Representative Steve Gunderson, hadn’t consulted with the tribe despite the disproportionate impact it could have on tribal members, according to Dupree. Gunderson had also referenced the 2016 protests over the Dakota Access Pipeline in North Dakota while introducing the legislation, which just didn’t sit right with Dupree. Those protests were largely peaceful and only turned violent when private security hired by the pipeline companythreatened protesters with guard dogs — and when police used water bombs and tear gas on mostly Indigenous protesters in the middle of winter. Nevertheless, Gunderson, who did not respond to a request for comment, falsely accused protesters of “throwing homemade explosive pipe bombs.” “This is a blanket bill that they’re trying to shove down everybody’s throats,” Dupree told Grist. “It’s very unfair to have no consultation, and the fact that it was an issue with the Standing Rock tribe that brought this [bill] about — that the sponsor even mentioned that — was disgusting.”Once signed, Montana will become the fourth state this year to pass legislation that increases penalties for trespass on properties with so-called “critical infrastructure” — a long list of facilities including pipelines, refineries, and other oil and gas equipment. The bill punishes those who “materially impede or inhibit operations” of an oil and gas facility with up to 18 months in prison and a fine of $4,500. Those who cause damage to critical infrastructure that costs more than $1,500 could face a jail term of up to 30 years. Kansas and Arkansas passed similar laws earlier this month, and in January Ohio Governor Mike DeWine signed a bill that makes trespassing on oil and gas properties a misdemeanor punishable with up to six months in prison and a $1,000 fine.
Looming showdown as Michigan governor orders Canadian pipeline shut down - For Michigan’s governor, the 645-mile pipeline jeopardizes the Great Lakes. For Canada’s natural resources minister, its continued operation is “nonnegotiable.” The clash over Calgary-based Enbridge’s Line 5, which carries up to 540,000 barrels of crude oil and natural gas liquids across Michigan and under the Great Lakes each day, is placing stress on U.S.-Canada ties — and raising questions about how the close allies, which have expressed a desire to work together to fight climate change, can balance energy security with the transition to a clean-energy economy. In a move applauded by environmentalists and Indigenous groups on both sides of the border, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) in November ordered the firm to shut down the nearly 70-year-old lines by May 12. Canadian officials, including Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, have appealed to their American counterparts, including President Biden, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm for help. Joe Comartin, Canada’s consul general in Detroit, said a shutdown would have “significant” impacts on both sides of the border. He predicted effects ranging from months-long propane shortages to higher costs for consumers to fuels being carried by rail, truck or boat — methods that he said are less emissions-friendly and more dangerous than a pipeline. “It certainly strains our relationship,” he said, “and we’ve had a very long history of working closely together.” One “irritant,” he said, is “the claim from the state that they are doing this to protect the Great Lakes, that they’re more interested in protecting the Great Lakes than we in Canada are. Basically, we reject that completely.” Line 5, built in 1953, is part of Enbridge’s mainline system, which carries fuel from Alberta’s oil sands to the Midwestern United States and Eastern Canada. Running from Superior, Wis., to Sarnia, Ontario, it is a key conduit for refineries in those regions, which make gas, propane and home-heating oils, as well as jet fuels for airports in Toronto and Detroit. For 4.5 miles under Michigan’s Straits of Mackinac, the waterway where Lake Huron meets Lake Michigan, Line 5 splits into dual pipelines.. Whitmer announced last fall that she was revoking the 1953 easement that allows the lines to cross the straits, citing the “unreasonable risk” that they pose to the Great Lakes and what she said were Enbridge’s “persistent” breaches of the easement’s terms. The announcement listed several infractions, including failures to ensure that the lines are supported every 75 feet and that they’re covered by a coating to prevent erosion. It noted two incidents, in 2018 and 2019, in which the pipelines were struck and damaged by cables or anchors from boats.
Michigan Wants to Close Oil Pipeline Under the Great Lakes. Canada Says No. - —Canada is fighting to stop U.S. officials from closing a vital cross-border oil and gas pipeline as a deadline to shut it looms. The dispute erupted in November, when Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer announced she was revoking a permit that allows Enbridge Inc.’s Line 5 pipeline to run along the bottom of the Straits of Mackinac, between Lake Michigan and Lake Huron. She gave the company until May 12 to shut the pipeline. The 645-mile conduit carries more than a half million barrels of oil and natural gas liquids each day from Superior, Wis., to refineries in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Ontario and Quebec. Canadian officials and Enbridge say closing the pipeline would choke off almost half of the supply used to make gasoline, jet fuel and home-heating oil for Ontario and Quebec, the most populous parts of the country. The closure could lead to higher fuel costs and thousands of job losses in the refineries that process the oil, officials say. Enbridge has sued Michigan in federal court to stop the revocation, arguing the state has no authority to do so, and said it won’t shut the pipeline down unless ordered by a court. Michigan cited “the unreasonable risk that continued operation of the dual pipelines poses to the Great Lakes,” in justifying the decision. The issue has become the biggest irritant between Canada and the U.S. since President Biden’s election. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau brought up Line 5 during a virtual summit in February with Mr. Biden, who in January had revoked a permit for Canadian operator TC Energy Corp.’s Keystone XL pipeline. The White House has given no sign that it is prepared to step into the middle of the dispute, but Canada has continued to press officials in the Biden administration. Canada’s Natural Resources Minister Seamus O’Regan, who spoke with U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm about the situation, has said the Line 5 pipeline is “nonnegotiable.” The White House declined to comment. Canada’s U.S. ambassador, Kirsten Hillman, has met with Ms. Whitmer. She has also spoken to senior Biden administration officials about the stakes involved should Line 5 shut down, such as the future of refineries in Midwestern states and billions in lost annual output. “The regional consequences of shutting down Line 5 are profound,” she said. So far, the entreaties have had little effect. “These oil pipelines in the Straits of Mackinac are a ticking time bomb, and their continued presence violates the public trust and poses a grave threat to Michigan’s environment and economy. The governor fully stands behind her decision to revoke and terminate the 1953 easement, while securing Michigan’s energy needs,”
Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer is trying to shut down the biggest artery for Canadian oil exports to the U.S. — will she be successful? - At least on paper, Ontario, Quebec and parts of the U.S. Midwest are about to have a large portion of their oil supply cut off on May 13, less than two weeks from now. Last November, Gretchen Whitmer, the Democratic governor of Michigan, signed an executive order that requires Calgary-based Enbridge Inc. to shut down its Line 5 pipeline. The line carries Alberta and Saskatchewan oil and liquefied natural gas to refineries in Ontario, Ohio and Michigan. It is the biggest artery for Canadian oil exports to the U.S. Whitmer’s government believes the 68-year-old Line 5, which runs from Superior, Wisc., to Sarnia, Ont., via Michigan, poses an unacceptable risk of a “catastrophic” oil spill threatening the entire Great Lakes ecosystem. To be sure, the chances of Line 5 abruptly closing are slight. The governor’s order has been challenged by Enbridge in U.S. federal court. The court is unlikely to grant Whitmer’s request for an injunction shutting down Line 5. But that won’t resolve this dispute, which is poised to be fought over for years in the courts and before regulatory panels in the U.S. and Canada. Even in the midst of a pandemic, this imbroglio is commanding Canada’s full attention. Just over three weeks after losing one pipeline skirmish with America — U.S. President Joe Biden’s killing of the Keystone XL pipeline expansion on his first day in office, over Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s objections — the Trudeau government is determined not to lose this pipeline fight. Trudeau has personally lobbied Biden to keep Line 5 open. And he has deployed his top cabinet officers and U.S. diplomats to do the same with their Biden administration counterparts, and with Whitmer, members of the U.S. Congress, and governors of other states that would be affected by a Line 5 closure. What makes this jousting unusual is that two sides are equally committed to one of the world’s most aggressive fights against climate crisis. And, in essence, what each side is trying to do is square a circle. What’s playing out in this dispute is the same quandary of economics vs. environment that characterizes the climate-crisis fight everywhere. Canada and the U.S. each still need the fossil-fuel energy carried by Line 5. Alternative energy sources are not yet sufficient to replace it. Line 5 is the largest conduit of Canadian oil to the U.S., a key to America’s energy self-sufficiency. And Canada, the world’s sixth-largest oil producer, exports about 80 per cent of its oil production to the U.S., its sole export customer. At the same time, though, Canada and the U.S. are trying with unprecedented urgency to reduce their carbon footprints. And among the most politically charged symbols of climate crisis are oil and gas pipelines. The focal point of this dispute is a dual-pipeline segment of Line 5 that stretches a mere six kilometres under the ecologically sensitive Straits of Mackinac, which connect Lake Michigan and Lake Huron. The straits have been described by environmentalists as one of the worst places on Earth to have built a pipeline that carries toxic material.
‘Irreparable consequences’: First Nations group slams Ottawa for protecting Line 5 pipeline -- The federal Liberal government is putting Canada’s oil and gas industry ahead of the Great Lakes by opposing Michigan’s efforts to shut down theLine 5 pipeline, says a prominent group of Ontario First Nations.The Anishinabek Nation said Thursday it is disappointed that Ottawa is pushing back against Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s order that Enbridge Inc. stop operating the cross-border pipeline next week.The federal government is considering taking action under the 1977 Transit Pipelines Treaty with the United States that allows for the uninterrupted flow of energy between the two countries.And yet it is willing to ignore the treaties Canada has signed with the 39 First Nations in Ontario that are represented by Anishinabek, said Grand Council Chief Glen Hare.“It is upsetting to see that the government of Canada will pick and choose which treaties to uphold based on convenience and profit,” Hare said in a statement.“Should anything that’s being transported in these 67-year-old pipelines get into the Great Lakes, it would have devastating effects and irreparable consequences.” But so too would shutting down the pipeline, Liberal, New Democrat and Conservative MPs alike agreed Thursday during an emergency debate on what both the government and the official Opposition consider a potential economic and diplomatic crisis.
Possible shutdown of Line 5 not a threat to Canada's energy security: ambassador --Canada's ambassador to the United States says that while the potential shutdown of Line 5 is a serious issue, it's not a threat to Canada's national energy security. "It is not a threat to Canada's national economic or energy security," Kristen Hillman told CBC News Network's Power & Politics on Thursday."I think that it is an important dispute or disagreement that exists between Enbridge and the state of Michigan that needs to be taken very seriously. And we are taking it very seriously."Line 5, which runs through Michigan from the Wisconsin city of Superior to Sarnia, Ont., crosses the Great Lakes beneath the environmentally sensitive Straits of Mackinac, which link Lake Michigan to Lake Huron.The pipeline carries petroleum east from Western Canada. Once it hits Ontario, most of the crude oil is turned in to fuels that meet almost 50 per cent of the province's fuel demands. The remainder of the supply is sent on to Quebec refineries through Line 9, where it provides 40 to 50 per cent of that province's fuel supply.
Long-unreported pipeline leak should be a wakeup call for Wisconsin -- The Enbridge Line 3 tar sands oil pipeline project in Minnesota is now 50% complete as those opposed to the pipeline attempt to stop it through legal actions, advocacy, protests, and prayers. The recent news from Fort Atkinson that Enbridge waited more than a year to alert Wisconsin officials that one of its pipelines — Line 13, also called Southern Lights — had leaked over 1,200 gallons of a petroleum substance called diluent, should be a wakeup call to people who understand the value of clean water and recognize the dangers of taking it for granted.Enbridge uses diluent to thin crude oil, allowing it to flow through pipes that stretch from Western Canada to the U.S. Gulf Coast, where the diluent is separated. Enbridge pipelines also pump diluent from the Gulf Coast and Midwest back to Western Canada — to help move more petroleum. Knowing the history of Enbridge pipeline failures and the fact that Enbridge kept Wisconsin in the dark about this one begs the question: should Wisconsin and every other state along the pipeline route trust that the water they drink is safe? A serious underground leak involving benzene, toluene, and trichloroethene seeping undetected into groundwater might be worse than a more visible failure.At a minimum, states should use independent testing services that report directly to them to look for leaks. Presently, 180,000 barrels of diluent per day move through the Southern Lights pipeline. If the new Line 3 pipeline is completed and the old Line 3 pipeline is abandoned, the volume of Line 3 crude oil will more than double, requiring a corresponding increase in diluent, presumably through the Southern Lights pipeline.A better plan would be to stop the Line 3 project because of the high risk it poses to our health and the environment. Diluent leaks are just the tip of the iceberg. The project disregards Native American treaty rights and environmental concerns, including climate change. The pipeline crosses wetlands, streams, and rivers, including two crossings of the Mississippi. Line 3 would accommodate the equivalent of fifty coal-fired power plants of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. In Minnesota, the Public Utilities Commission approved the project, but the Department of Commerce is fighting it, arguing that the need for the project has not been established. Since the project was proposed and controversy began, renewable energy technologies have improved and capacity has expanded, technologies and strategies for storing energy to meet peak loads on power grids have matured, and the pandemic has reduced demand for oil.
Climate and Indigenous Protesters Across 4 Continents Pressure Banks to #DefundLine3 -- From fake oil spills in Washington, D.C. and New York City to a "people mural" in Seattle spelling out "Defund Line 3," climate and Indigenous protesters in 50 U.S. cities and across seven other countries spanning four continents took to the streets on Friday for a day of action pushing 20 banks to ditch the controversial tar sands pipeline."Against the backdrop of rising climate chaos, the continued bankrolling of Line 3 and similar oil and gas infrastructure worldwide is fueling gross and systemic violations of human rights and Indigenous peoples' rights at a global scale," said Carroll Muffett, president of the Center for International Environmental Law."It's time for the big banks to recognize that they can and will be held accountable for their complicity in those violations," Muffett added. His organization is part of the Stop the Money Pipeline coalition, more than 150 groups that urge asset managers, banks, and insurers to stop funding climate destruction. The global protests on Friday follow on-the-ground actions that have, at times, successfully halted construction of Canada-based Enbridge's Line 3 project, which is intended to replace an old pipeline that runs from Alberta, through North Dakota and Minnesota, to Wisconsin. The new pipeline's route crossesAnishinaabe treaty lands.Simone Senogles, a Red Lake Anishinaabe citizen and organizer for Indigenous Environmental Network, declared that "no amount of greenwashing and PR can absolve these banks from violating Indigenous rights and the desolation of Mother Earth.""By giving credit lines to Enbridge, these institutions are giving the oil company a blank check to attack Anishinaabe people, steal our lands, and further guide this planet into climate chaos," Senogles said. "Those who financially back Enbridge are directly implicated in its crimes. To put it bluntly, blood is on their hands."The Stop the Money Pipeline coalition launched the #DefundLine3 campaign in February. Appearing on Democracy Now! Friday, Jackie Fielder of Stop the Money Pipeline noted that "Line 3 would result in an additional 193 million tons of greenhouse gases every single year, and it violates Indigenous rights of the Anishinaabe people and their right to free, prior, and informed consent."
PIPELINES: Lawsuit targets Army Corps permitting program -- Monday, May 3, 2021 -- Environmental groups today sued the Army Corps of Engineers over its streamlined permitting program for authorizing pipelines to cross through rivers, streams and wetlands.
Army Corps sees no cause to shut Dakota pipeline during review -filing (Reuters) - The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers said it does not believe a judge should order the Dakota Access oil pipeline shut while environmental review continues, according to court filings on Monday. The Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL), which came into service in 2017, has been the subject of a lengthy court battle between Native American tribes seeking its closure and the pipeline operators, led by Energy Transfer. The Corps' position is consistent with statements it made before the court last year. A U.S. district judge for the District of Columbia threw out a permit last year for DAPL to cross under the Dakotas' Lake Oahe, a drinking-water source for Native American tribes, and ordered a review of the pipeline. The Army Corps said on Monday that it expected to complete an environmental review of the 570,000-barrel-per-day DAPL out of North Dakota by March 2022, when it will consider whether to issue a new permit for the line. That judge is now considering whether to grant a request by Native tribes to require that the line cease flows and be emptied while the assessment is carried out. The Corps, under the direction of President Joe Biden, said at a hearing last month it had no immediate plans to force a DAPL closure. "The Corps is not aware of information that would cause it to evaluate the injunction factors differently than in its previous filing," it said in Monday's filing. DAPL's operators intend to seek U.S. Supreme Court review in the case, according to a filing last week.
Environmental groups sue Army Corps of Engineers over pipeline permitting --A coalition of five environmental groups on Monday sued the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, saying the corps did not properly analyze environmental impacts when issuing a broad pipeline permit.The plaintiffs, which include the Center for Biological Diversity, Sierra Club, Friends of the Earth, Waterkeeper Alliance and Montana Environmental Information Center, filed the lawsuit in federal court in Montana.The permit at issue, Permit 12, is a so-called nationwide permit that streamlines the pipeline permitting process. The corps estimates its 2021 version will be used more than 40,000 times over the next five years.In the lawsuit, the plaintiffs argue that although national permits are intended for activities with negligible environmental impacts, the projected uses of Permit 12 will affect more than 3,000 acres of U.S. waters and threaten endangered species. It would also allow major pipelines to begin construction under the nationwide permitting process instead of undergoing stricter regulatory scrutiny.The lawsuit further argues that the permit violates the Clean Water Act and the National Environmental Policy ActWhile the Biden administration has called for a review of nationwide permits, it has also allowed the 2021 version of Permit 12, reissued in the final days of the Trump administration, to take effect, according to the lawsuit.“The Corps’ failure to comply with bedrock environmental laws requires immediate attention,” Jared Margolis, a senior attorney at the Center for Biological Diversity, said in a statement. “There’s simply no justification for allowing destructive and dangerous pipelines to avoid rigorous environmental review, and it’s disheartening to see the Corps continue to flaunt its obligation to protect our nation’s waters and imperiled wildlife.”“Nationwide Permit 12 is a tool for corporate polluters to fast-track climate-destroying oil and gas pipelines and exempt them from critical environmental reviews and consultations,” added Sierra Club senior attorney Doug Hayes. “While the Biden administration has promised a review of the Corps’ program, it has allowed this new permit to take effect in the meantime, a delay which is detrimental to wildlife, waterways and our climate. There’s no time to waste in eliminating this process, which only serves to bolster the oil and gas industry’s bottom lines.” A federal court ruled in a separate lawsuit that the permit’s 2017 iteration was a violation of the Endangered Species Act. In July 2020, the Supreme Court reinstated it, but declined to renew it specifically for the Keystone XL pipeline.
Corps: Dakota Access oil pipeline to stay open during review (AP) — The Biden administration on Monday reiterated that the Dakota Access oil pipeline should continue to operate while the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers conducts an extensive environmental review, although the Corps said again that it could change its mind.The Standing Rock Sioux and other tribes have filed for an injunction asking U.S. District Judge James Boasberg to shut down the pipeline while the Corps conducts a second review, expected to be completed by March 2022. The tribes and environmental groups, encouraged by some of Biden’s moves on climate change and fossil fuels, were hoping he would step in and shut down the pipeline north of the reservation that straddles the Dakotas border.Instead, the Corps in an update ordered by the judge repeated its stance from last month’s hearing that the shutdown issue remains in Boasberg’s lap.“It is possible that in the EIS process the Corps would find new information,” the document stated, referring to the environmental impact statement, “but to date the Corps is not aware of information that would cause it to evaluate the injunction factors differently than in its previous filing.” Earthjustice attorney Jan Hasselman, who represents Standing Rock, reacted by citing Biden’s discussion with world leaders on addressing climate change and the president’s promise to be more sensitive to concerns by Indigenous leaders and tribal governments.“Given all this, it’s baffling that when it comes to the Dakota Access pipeline, Biden’s Army Corps is standing in the way of justice for Standing Rock by opposing a court order to shut down this infrastructure while environmental and safety consequences are fully evaluated,” Hasselman said. Attorneys for the pipeline’s Texas-based owner, Energy Transfer, have argued that shuttering the pipeline would be devastating financially to several entities, including North Dakota, and the Mandan, Hidatsa and Arikara Nation tribe. Standing Rock said preventing those economic losses should not come at the expense of other tribes, especially when Boasberg’s decision to strip the project of a key federal permit has been supported by the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals.Standing Rock, which draws its water from the Missouri River, says it fears pollution. The company says the pipeline is safe. Boasberg ordered further environmental study after determining the Corps had not adequately considered how an oil spill under the Missouri River might affect Standing Rock’s fishing and hunting rights, among other things. A federal panel later upheld the judge’s ruling, but did not go as far as shutting down the pipeline.
Biden Administration Lets DAPL Oil Continue to Flow Without Permit - The Biden administration told a federal judge on Monday that the Dakota Access Pipeline should be allowed to continue pumping oil despite lacking a key federal permit. The Army Corps of Engineers, which is conducting another extensive environmental review, said it could change its mind. Early last month, the Army Corps surprised Judge James Boasberg, and outraged lawyers representing the Standing Rock Sioux, when it said it wasn't sure if the oil pipeline should be shut down."It's baffling," Earthjustice attorney Jan Hasselman said in a statement. "When it comes to the Dakota Access Pipeline, Biden's Army Corps is standing in the way of justice for Standing Rock by opposing a court order to shut down this infrastructure while environmental and safety consequences are fully evaluated."
ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE: Dakota Access decision snarls Biden's equity progress -- Wednesday, May 5, 2021 --President Biden's vows to overhaul the Army's long-standing strained relationship with Native American tribes hit a snag this week when his administration backed continued operation of the controversial Dakota Access pipeline.
PIPELINES: Biden admin asks court to drop Keystone XL lawsuit -- Thursday, May 6, 2021 -- The Biden administration this week asked a federal appeals court to close out a dispute over a key permit for the now-suspended Keystone XL pipeline.
TC Energy posts C$1 bln quarterly loss on Keystone XL suspension -Canadian pipeline operator TC Energy on Friday swung to a loss in the first quarter, hit by C$2.2 billion ($1.81 billion) impairment charges related to the suspension of its Keystone XL pipeline project. TC Energy posts C$1 billion quarterly loss on Keystone XL suspension- oil and gas 360 Source: Reuters The pipeline was planned to carry 830,000 barrels per day of heavy crude from Canada’s Alberta province to Nebraska in the United States. The company said the charge was related to halting work on the Keystone XL pipeline and a reassessment of related projects like the Heartland Pipeline, after U.S. President Joe Biden revoked a key permit for the project in January. TC Energy, whose new Chief Executive Francois Poirier took the helm in January, owns the largest network of natural gas pipelines in North America as well as the existing Keystone oil pipeline and power and storage assets. The company posted a C$2.51 billion loss from its oil pipelines, of which Keystone is the biggest contributor, compared with a C$411 million profit in the same period last year. It reported net loss attributable to shareholders of C$1.1 billion, or C$1.11 per share, in the three months ended March 31 compared with a profit of C$1.1 billion a year earlier.
PIPELINES: Developer to decide Keystone XL's fate next month -- Friday, May 7, 2021 -- Developers of the Keystone XL pipeline have not yet given up on the crude oil project, even after President Biden threw out a permit for the conduit to cross the U.S.-Canada border earlier this year.
EPA hits troubled Virgin Islands oil refinery with a violation notice - A giant oil and gas refinery was served with a “notice of violation” by the Environmental Protection Agency following two major accidents that released noxious fumes and a chemical-filled vapor cloud over nearby neighborhoods in the U.S. Virgin Islands.The EPA said Monday that Limetree Bay Refining was served with the notice because the company failed to operate five monitoring stations to gauge the air quality around its plant, a major source of harmful greenhouse gas emissions. The company also failed to operate a meteorological tower.“A major source of air pollution, such as Limetree Bay, is subject to controls under its air permits,” the agency said in a statement. “Limetree Bay may be liable for civil penalties and required to take actions to correct the violations.”The company has 30 days to request a video conference to discuss or contest the notice of violation.In a statement Monday, the firm contested EPA’s allegations.“We strongly disagree with the claim that we are in violation of any ambient air monitoring requirement," it said. "The former refinery operator was required to perform area monitoring, but that requirement was linked exclusively to their burning of sulfur-containing residual fuel oil, which Limetree Bay does not do.”The plant’s previous owner, Hovensa, stopped operating five sulfur dioxide monitoring stations when it shut down in 2012 in the wake of financial problems and a multimillion-dollar settlement with EPA over environmental violations. At the time, according to the notice, Hovensa pledged to reactivate the monitors if it restarted.A Limetree employee informed the EPA on Feb. 16 — more than two weeks after the plant started running again — that it was not operating the air monitors, the notice added.Short-term exposures to high levels of sulfur dioxide can damage the human respiratory system. People with asthma, especially children, are vulnerable.“EPA issued this notice of violation to protect the people who live near and work at this refinery, and we have also deployed a team of experts to St. Croix and are working to assess Limetree Bay’s compliance with environmental laws,”
Oil spillage tackled at marina to protect wildlife --ENVIRONMENT officials have tackled an oil spillage in a marina in East Yorkshire.The Environment Agency tweeted that its field team went to the marina in Goole this morning to help to clear up some oil that had leaked into the water. It said pads and bunds were used to contain and soak up the oil and prevent any damage to wildlife in nearby rivers.
Norway regulator to investigate Equinor oil spill {Reuters} – The Norwegian Petroleum Safety Authority is investigating an oil spill incident at the Gullfaks C platform in the North Sea early last week. The discharge to the sea is thought to be connected to start-up of production from the Tordis field, a tieback to the platform. Operator Equinor estimates the size of the spill at 17.5 cu m (618 cu ft) of oil.
Oil spill: Rivers communities demand N800bn compensation The people of Nvakaohia- Rumuekpe in Emohua Local Government Area of Rivers State have demanded N800 billion compensation as damages from Total E&P Nigeria Limited over oil spill that occurred in their area. They made the demand at a joint press briefing between the Integrity Friends for Truth and Peace Initiative (TIFPI), chiefs, Community Development Committees (CDCs) and stakeholders of the affected area. Executive Director, TIFPI and Convener, Ikwerre People’s Congress (IPC), Livingstone Wechie, who read their address, said the multi-national oil company should carry out remediation on the polluted Nvakaohia- Rumuekpe made up Ovelle, Imogu and Ekwutche communities in Emohua LGA, Rivers. Wechie alleged that the firm had operated in the three communities for over six decades and dozens of natives had lost their lives in the last 10 years, as a result of environmental pollution. “That Total E&P Nigeria Ltd should pay N800 billion as compensation of Nvakaohia-Rumuekpe communities for the destruction on the various tortuous acts and injustices.There should be immediate supply of potable water to save life in Nvakaohia-Rumuekpe, building of hospitals, medical intervention, relief materials, construction of IDP camps to accommodate and return the people back from their current refugee status to avert the complete extinction of Nvakaohia clan in Rivers State. “That a joint Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) be immediately conducted in Nvakaoha-Rumuekpe between Total E&P Nigeria Ltd and Nvakaoha-Rumuekpe community and to ensure that remediation, cleanup and adequate compensation etc should be paid to Nvakaoha-Rumuekpe for the damages and degradation caused in the communities on account of years of oil spill.
NOC takes action to control Tobruk oil spill, AGOC denies responsibility Tobruk Mayor Faraj Boual Khattabia formed a committee to address the issue of the oil spill in Tobruk, which presented its first plans this week to avoid the diesel from spreading into the sea, the first step was to erect a barrier around it. In a press conference, Boual Khattabia also expressed concern about diesel spreading into the city’s desalination plant. He demanded that the National Oil Corporation (NOC) and the Ministry of Water investigate the oil spill, which he said is endangering the health of all Tobruk residents. Boual Khattabia also emphasized the need for a clarification from the Arabian Gulf Oil Company and the Brega Petroleum Marketing Company about the oil leak at the city’s desalination plant, which contaminated the water. The head of the NOC’s health and safety division attended the meeting in Tobruk. Involved in the process is a working team from the oil firms Arabian Gulf Oil Co. (AGOC) and Brega Petroleum Marketing Co. (BPMC). The companies have all sent their spill response teams to deal with the situation. They intend to collect the diesel and clean up the area in order to protect the environment and maintain water quality. The Arabian Gulf Oil Company on their end has denied all blame for the fuel oil spill, which has reached the Corniche of Tobruk. The company said in a statement that reports that the AGOC caused the spill were false and that the chairman of the company’s management committee, Fadlallah Ahtiati, who was tasked with investigating the situation in all respects, stated that the company was not responsible for the spill.
Work to remove oil from stricken tanker off China nearly finished (Reuters) - Efforts to remove the cargo of an oil tanker that leaked oil into the Yellow Sea near China's Qingdao after a collision last week should be completed later on Tuesday, the vessel's manager said. The A Symphony was anchored roughly 40 nautical miles off the coast of Qingdao when it was struck in dense fog by the bulk carrier Sea Justice on April 27. The collision ruptured A Symphony's cargo and ballast tanks, causing it to leak roughly 400 tonnes of its bitumen mix cargo. A Symphony's manager, Goodwood Ship Management, said there were no injuries to the crew, and clean-up operations commenced as soon as weather conditions improved enough to allow specialist cleaning and repair vessels to travel to the site. (Graphic: Other ships steer clear of ‘A Symphony’ as oil spill clean-up continues off Qingdao, China - https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/oakpewkajpr/ASymphonyVesselGap.png) Work to unload the tanker's cargo, known as lightering, has continued since Friday, Goodwood said in a statement, and when complete the vessel will depart for further assessment and repairs. The company has yet to confirm which shipyard will handle the repairs. (Graphic: Bulk carrier collides with oil tanker at Qingdao Bulk carrier collides with oil tanker at Qingdao - https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-OIL/SPILL/qzjvqzlbapx/chart.png) The 272 metre-long, 46 metre-wide oil tanker was sold in May 2019 to its new owners Symphony Shipholding SA and NGM Energy, Equasis data showed.
Cargo removed from stricken tanker off China, preparing for voyage to repair yard (Reuters) - Cargo onboard a tanker that leaked oil off China has been removed and preparations are underway so the vessel can sail to a Chinese repair yard, the ship’s manager said on Wednesday. The A Symphony was anchored roughly 40 nautical miles (74 km) off the coast of Qingdao when it collided with the bulk carrier Sea Justice in dense fog on April 27. The collision ruptured A Symphony’s cargo and ballast tanks, causing it to leak roughly 400 tonnes of its bitumen mix cargo. Work has taken place in recent days to unload the tanker’s cargo, known as lightering. The vessel’s manager, Goodwood Ship Management, said in an email that the cargo transfer had been completed and the ship was undergoing tank cleaning operations, which were expected to be completed in the next 72 hours. The vessel will then proceed to China’s CUD Weihai shipyard for repairs, Goodwood said. The yard is located along the Yellow Sea.
Oil Prices Slip As India's Surging Cases Dampen Demand Hopes | Al Bawaba --Oil was down Monday morning in Asia as ever-surging COVID-19 cases in countries such as India dampen fuel demand hopes. Brent oil futures edged down 0.18% to $66.64 by 11:06 PM ET (3:06 AM GMT) and WTI futures edged down 0.13% to $63.50. India, the third-largest oil importer globally, continues to fight its second wave of COVID-19 cases. The daily number of COVID-19 cases passed the 400,000-mark on May 1, before inching back down to 392,488 the next day, according to the country’s Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. The record numbers led the Confederation of Indian Industry to urge authorities to curtail economic activity. However, losses were capped as fuel demand is expected to rebound in countries such as China in the second half of 2021. Accelerating COVID-19 vaccination rates are expected to raise global fuel demand, especially during the upcoming peak summer travel season. "Strong demand in regions such as North America, Europe and China has brightened the overall outlook," ANZ analysts said in a note. On the supply front, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries produced 25.17 million barrels per day in April, up 100,000 barrels from March. In the U.S., energy firms added oil and natural gas rigs to a ninth consecutive monthly rig count increase during the previous week as prices recovered, said Baker Hughes. U.S. crude oil production, however, fell by over a million barrels per day in February to the lowest levels since Oct. 2017, according to Friday’s monthly government report. Meanwhile, the U.S. and Iran are discussing reviving a nuclear deal, which could help life U.S. sanctions and allow Iran to bolster its oil exports.
Oil prices rise amid demand hopes - (Xinhua) -- Oil prices advanced on Monday as hopes for demand recovery outweighed worries about surging COVID-19 infections in India. The West Texas Intermediate for June delivery added 91 cents to settle at 64.49 U.S. dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for July delivery increased 80 cents to close at 67.56 dollars a barrel on the London ICE Futures Exchange. Oil prices also garnered some support from a weaker U.S. dollar. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major peers, slid 0.37 percent to 90.9487 in late trading on Monday. Historically, the price of oil is inversely related to the price of the U.S. dollar.
Oil up a second day on bets for higher demand as U.S., Europe ease COVID restrictions -Oil futures post a gain for a second session on Tuesday, finding support as traders bet that easing COVID-19 restrictions in the U.S. and Europe will lead to higher fuel demand as the market approaches the summer travel season."From here on out the thing to watch will be air travel," said James Williams, energy economist at WTRG Economics. "Domestic and international air travel will continue to improve despite the difficulties in India," he said. Given the "lifting of so many restrictions in the U.S. and the pent up demand for vacations, we should see a strong uptick in U.S. gasoline consumption this summer."West Texas Intermediate crude for June delivery rose $1.20, or 1.9%, to settle at $65.69 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. July Brent crude , the global benchmark, added $1.32, or almost 2%, at $68.88 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. Both contracts settled at their highest since March, according to Dow Jones market Data.In the U.S., demand is surging, and combined with plans to ease U.K. restrictions on air travel, those developments are "offsetting concerns about demand destruction in India and the worries about the return of supply from Iran," said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at The Price Futures Group.The European Commission on Monday proposed welcoming fully COVID-19-vaccinated travelers and tourists from countries with "a good epidemiological situation." European airline shares jumped (link). In the U.S., several states began lifting or announced plans to lift or ease lockdown restrictions (link). The average number of new cases in the U.S. fell below 50,000 a day for the first time since October (link). Nearly 1.67 million people were screened at U.S. airport checkpoints on Sunday, according to the Transportation Security Administration, the highest number since mid-March of last year."Europe's plans to curb travel restrictions is music to the ears of oil bulls. When added to Fed Chair Powell's comments that the U.S. economic recovery is making real progress, this is supportive of higher oil prices," said Sophie Griffiths, market analyst at Oanda, in a note.The improving picture in the U.S. and Europe stands in contrast to India, the world's third-largest oil importer, where a deadly surge in COVID cases has yet to let up. Indian hospitals remain overwhelmed by cases and lacking in supplies including oxygen.See: (link)India's COVID-19 crisis is a 'crime against humanity,' says prizewinning author as nation sets new case record (link)Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, meanwhile, is "vowing to not shut down the Indian economy despite a lot of outside pressure to do so," Flynn said in a Tuesday note.But WTRG's Williams thinks the market is "underestimating India's negative impact on demand."Meanwhile, data from Bloomberg revealed that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries kept oil production mostly steady in April ahead of output increases that kicked in this month. OPEC pumped an average of 25.27 million barrels a day in April, roughly 50,000 barrels a day less than in March, according to the Bloomberg survey (link).
Oil gains nearly 2% as demand optimism continues to counteract India's covid case surge --Oil prices rose on Tuesday after more U.S. states eased lockdowns and the European Union sought to attract travellers, though soaring COVID-19 cases in India capped gains. Brent crude futures were up $1.01, or 1.48%, at $68.50 a barrel after climbing by 1.2% on Monday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled $1.20, or 1.86%, higher at $65.69 per barrel, after a 1.4% jump on Monday. Both contracts were up about 2% in earlier trade. "Markets were optimistic coming into the day, boosted by flight movement between U.S. and Europe," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. Demand for diesel fuel, including jet, has suffered during the pandemic, weighing down global oil markets. Prices are being supported by the prospect of a pick-up in fuel demand as New York state, New Jersey and Connecticut look to ease pandemic curbs and the EU plans to open up to foreign visitors who have been vaccinated, analysts said. "The current strength is led by U.S. gasoline, where demand is seen as healthy as more motorists take to the roads," said PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga. "Yesterday's stock market strength is being followed through this morning in the oil market ... the market focuses on the successful rollout of vaccine programmes in the U.S. and in other developed countries and not on the devastation in India and Brazil." For further signs of rising U.S. oil demand, traders will be watching for reports on crude and product stockpiles from the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday and the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. Five analysts polled by Reuters estimated on average that U.S. crude inventories fell by 2.2 million barrels in the week to April 30. Oil inventories rose in the previous two weeks. The rate of refinery utilisation was expected to have increased by 0.5 percentage point last week, from 85.4% of total capacity in the week ended April 23, the poll showed. A weaker dollar, hit by an unexpected slowdown in U.S. manufacturing growth, also helped to shore up oil prices on Tuesday. The lower dollar makes oil more attractive to buyers holding other currencies. In India, the total number of infections surpassed 20 million after the country again registered more than 300,000 new cases, which is expected to hit fuel demand in the world's second-most populous country. "Strong demand forecasts for the second part of 2021 are providing a bullish seat for traders to drive rallies, not allowing any strong negative price reaction to drag for long, even at times of crisis, such as the recent one in India," said Rystad Energy analyst Louise Dickson. "In fact, looking at balances going forward, prices will likely climb again to about $70 per barrel in the coming months, unless we see another policy change by OPEC+."
WTI Extends Gains After Biggest Crude Draw Since January -A stronger dollar and a hawkish Yellen were not enough to slow oil's rebound as more US states eased lockdowns and the European Union sought to attract more travellers, which would help offset weakened fuel demand in India as COVID-19 cases soar.“Gasoline inventories in the U.S. are well below where they were a year ago and we’ve taken out refinery capacity,” said Peter McNally, global head for industrials, materials and energy at Third Bridge.“We’ve seen the impact on demand as more people get vaccinated, so we’re going to get that tailwind plus seasonality coming later this month.”While OPEC kept its crude production steady in April, ahead of a planned output hike this month, all eyes will be on signs of demand picking up in US crude stocks. API
- Crude -7.688mm
- Cushing +548k
- Gasoline -5.308mm
- Distillates -3.453mm
The last few weeks have seen very modest changes in crude stocks and analysts expected inventories to have fallen last week, and it did in a big way. Crude stocks fell 7.688mm barrels - the biggest weekly draw since January
Oil Up Over Huge Draw in U.S. Crude Supplies, Fuel Demand Hopes - – Oil was up Wednesday morning in Asia over a record fall in U.S. crude supplies and growing expectations that re-opening drives in the U.S. and Europe will boost fuel demand. However, investors are also keeping an eye on ever-surging numbers of COVID-19 cases in parts of Asia.Brent oil futures rose 2.68% to $69.37 by 12:24M ET (4:24 AM GMT), closing in on the $70 mark. WTI futures jumped 2.64% to $66.19.U.S. crude oil supply data from the American Petroleum Institute showed a draw of 7.688 million barrels for the week ended Apr. 30, in what is set to be the largest drop since late January 2021. The draw exceeded the 2.191-million-barrel draw in forecasts prepared by Investing.com and the 4.319-million-barrel build recorded during the previous week.Investors now await crude oil supply data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, due later in the day.U.S. President Joe Biden said on Tuesday that the U.S. aims to vaccinate 70% of U.S. adults with at least one COVID-19 shot by the Independence Day holiday on Jul. 4. In the U.K., Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the country is set to lift lockdown rules in seven weeks.Investors are betting that the accelerating COVID-19 vaccination rate will help oil prices return to pre-COVID-19 conditions in key markets. The European Union plans to ease curbs for the upcoming peak summer travel season, while states around the New York region in the U.S. will lift most of the COVID-19 capacity restrictions on businesses. G20, a group of the world’s top 20 major economies, plans to introduce so-called vaccine passports to boost travel and tourism. However, India, the third-largest oil importer globally, topped 20.2 million COVID-19 cases by May 5, according to Johns Hopkins University data. Elsewhere in Asia, countries including Singapore, Vietnam and Seychelles, have recently reported increasing numbers of COVID-19 cases.
WTI Holds Gains Above $66 After Big Crude Draw --Oil prices are up for a third straight day this morning as the easing of lockdowns in the US and parts of Europe prompted hopes of an increase in fuel demand over the summer months and offset concerns about rising COVID-19 infections in India and Japan."A return to $70 oil is edging closer to becoming reality," said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM."The jump in oil prices came amid expectations of strong demand as Western economies reopen. Indeed, anticipation of a pick-up in fuel and energy usage in the United States and Europe over the summer months is running high," he said.Last night's surprisingly large crude draw (reported by API) also helped support prices and traders will be looking at the official data to confirm the trend. DOE
- Crude -7.99mm
- Cushing +254k
- Gasoline +737k
- Distillates -2.896mm
Official DOE data confirmed API's big crude draw but the major product draws were not as gasoline stocks rose unexpectedly and distillates stocks fell but less than API...Distillates stocks fell to their lowest since April 2020 and crude inventories fell to 10-week lows...
U.S. oil prices finish lower as traders reconsider demand prospects - EIA reports a weekly 8 million-barrel drop in U.S. crude supplies. U.S. oil futures on Wednesday ended lower but the global benchmark prices finished slightly higher in a mixed day of trading for oil contracts.Traders reconsidered the outlook for oil demand, despite U.S. data showing the biggest weekly drop in domestic crude supplies since January..West Texas Intermediate crude for June delivery , the U.S. benchmark, fell 6 cents, or nearly 0.1%, to settle at $65.63 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices traded as high as $66.76, the highest front-month intraday level since March, FactSet data show.July Brent , meanwhile, added 8 cents, or 0.1%, at $68.96 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, following a climb to as high as $69.95.Oil prices saw gains early Wednesday on expectations that an economic recovery in the U.S. and Europe would lead to higher demand for oil. A U.S. government report also revealed a hefty weekly decline in U.S. crude inventories, but WTI prices turned lower ahead of the trading settlements.Several U.S. states have scrapped or plan to ease lockdown restrictions in coming weeks as COVID infection rates decline. Improved vaccine rollouts and easing restrictions on travel have also contributed to optimism over European fuel demand.Still, India's hospitals remain overwhelmed by cases (link), exacerbated by a dearth of public-health resources, including oxygen.The "virus is a big wildcard" as India is going to take some time to recover, said Tariq Zahir, managing member at Tyche Capital Advisors. Also, the members of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries are starting to add oil to the market, which could "take some steam out of the energy markets in the months ahead."On Wednesday, the Energy Information Administration reported that U.S. crude inventories fell (link) by 8 million barrels for the week ended April 30. That was the biggest weekly decline since January. On average, analysts polled by S&P Global Platts forecast a decline of 3.9 million barrels for crude stocks, while the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday (link) reported a 7.7 million-barrel drop.Meanwhile, the data from the EIA Wednesday also showed crude stocks at the Cushing, Okla., storage hub rose by 200,000 barrels for the week. Gasoline supply inched higher by 700,000 barrels, while distillate stockpiles declined by 2.9 million barrels for the week, according to the EIA report. The S&P Global Platts survey had expected weekly supply declines of 500,000 barrels for gasoline and 1.6 million barrels for distillates.
Saudi set to cut oil prices to Asia for first time this year - Saudi Arabia is likely to reduce the price of its crude oil for Asia in June in what will be the Kingdom’s first price cut this year amid signs of declining demand in India and weakening Dubai benchmark, according to a Reuters survey of Asian refiners.Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, is expected to cut its official selling price (OSP) for the flagship Arab Light grade for Asia in June by an average of $0.28 per barrel, according to sources at Asian refiners Reuters has polled.The expected price cut, if it materializes, would be the first time Saudi Arabia has reduced prices to Asia in 2021. The last time the Saudis lowered the price of crude to their most important market was in December 2020.Uncertainty over demand in the world’s third-largest oil importer, India, as well as the weakest price structure at the Middle Eastern Dubai benchmark in nearly two months, are expected to be the key reasons for a reduction in the Saudi oil prices, according to the Reuters survey.Sales of gasoline in India were the weakest in April since August 2020, officials with knowledge of preliminary data told Bloomberg. Average daily sales of diesel, the most used fuel in the country, slumped in April to the lowest level since last October, according to the preliminary estimates.India’s demand for diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel is expected to further decline in the coming days and probably weeks, with no sign that the second COVID wave in the country would peak within days.In addition, last week, the Dubai benchmark flipped to a slight contango, signaling not-so-tight market. Middle Eastern oil exporters, including Saudi Arabia, price their oil going to Asia off the Oman/Dubai average.
Oil Drops, Factoring in Saudi Price Cut Amid India Covid Carnage - - Oil prices fell more than 1% Thursday, clearly breaking from the rally earlier in the week, as Saudi Arabia’s cut in the selling price of its crude and India’s raging Covid situation offset bullish sentiments over the rebounding U.S. economy and its demand for energy. The Saudi price cut was reported on Wednesday and while it did not immediately impact the market, it filled the void in the latest session where the pandemic in India, the world’s third largest crude buyer, remained the news. Under the cut, the June official selling price for the flagship Arab light crude was dropped by 10 cents from May to $1.70 a barrel, sources said. India has reported more than 300,000 new cases daily in the last two weeks, and overtook Brazil in April to become the second-worst infected country in the world. Cumulatively, coronavirus infections in India reached around 20.67 million with more than 226,000 deaths, according to health ministry data on Wednesday. Several studies of India’s data, however, found that cases were likely severely underreported. “It did not help that Saudi Arabia cut the selling price of oil to India because of Covid demand destruction, reminding traders that risk is still out there,” said Phil Flynn, analyst at Chicago’s Price Futures Group brokerage. New York-traded West Texas Intermediate, the benchmark for U.S. crude, settled down 92 cents, or 1.4%, at $64.71 per barrel. WTI hit an eight-week high of $66.75 on Wednesday, before snapping a four-day rally. London-traded Brent, the global benchmark for crude, closed down 90 cents, or 1.3%, at $68.09. Brent hit an eight-week high of $69.94 in the previous session. Oil rallied earlier in the week on optimism over the U.S. recovery from Covid and data showing a record surge in crude exports from the country and sharply lower domestic petroleum inventories. U.S. crude exports hit a record high of 4.1 million barrels per day, in a breakout above the previous week’s 2.5 million bpd, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly petroleum supply-demand dataset released Wednesday. Crude imports, meanwhile, fell 1.2 million bpd to reach 5.5 million bpd last week. The combination of these led to a near 8 million-barrel drawdown in crude inventories, the EIA said, compared with analysts' expectations for a draw of 2.3 million barrels.
Oil Prices Decline Amid Uneven Recovery Signs -- Oil declined as the coronavirus crisis in India and a slowing demand rebound in the U.S. highlighted the uneven nature of the global recovery. Futures in New York fell 1.4% Thursday after hitting a nearly two-month high earlier in the week. While signs of rising oil consumption have put prices on track for a weekly gain, spiking Covid-19 cases in major crude importer India is capping gains. At the same time, U.S. gasoline consumption slipped for a second straight week. “What’s keeping the market from going higher are these Covid-19 issues in several countries along with not quite enough of a demand rebound here in the U.S. to juice prices toward that $70-a-barrel mark,” said John Kilduff, founding partner at Again Capital LLC. Despite near-term concerns, oil has rallied more than 30% this year as key economies including the U.S. and China rebound from the depths of the pandemic. Spain’s Cepsa is restarting a processing unit that was previously idled, while U.S. refineries are running at five-year average levels for the first time since the pandemic began. The strength in crude has helped drive the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index to the highest level in almost a decade. West Texas Intermediate crude for June delivery fell 92 cents to $64.71 a barrel in New York. Brent for July settlement slid 87 cents to $68.09 a barrel. The promise of a summer travel boost is also keeping prices supported, said Bob Yawger, head of the futures division at Mizuho Securities. “With Memorial Day weekend so close here, the gasoline demand scenario is just too strong to see crude oil fall apart.” Elsewhere, Japan plans to extend a state of emergency brought on by Covid until the end of the month, local media reported. The country’s capital, Tokyo, had wanted to extend it in a bid to stem a surge in infections ahead of hosting the Olympics from July.
Global oil prices edge up as investors eye fuel demand recovery - (Reuters) - Oil prices edged up in early Asian trade after a 1% dip in the previous session, as global economic recovery and easing travel curbs in the United States and Europe buoyed the fuel demand outlook while the surging pandemic in India capped prices. Brent crude futures for July were at $68.17 a barrel by 0052 GMT, up 8 cents, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for June rose 9 cents to $64.80. Both Brent and WTI are on track for a second weekly gain as easing restrictions on movement in the United States and Europe, recovering factory operations and coronavirus vaccinations pave the way for a revival in fuel demand, while pent-up summer travel is likely to give gasoline and jet fuel consumption a further boost. In the United States, the world's largest oil consumer, jobless claims have dropped, signalling the labour market recovery had entered a new phase amid a booming economy. However, oil demand recovery has been uneven as surging COVID-19 cases in India has reduced fuel consumption at the world's third-largest oil importer and consumer. Resurgence of COVID-19 in countries such as India, Japan and Thailand is hindering gasoline demand recovery, energy consultancy FGE said in a client note, though some of that lost demand has been offset by countries such as China where recent Labour Day holiday travel surpassed 2019 levels. "Gasoline demand in the U.S. and parts of Europe is faring relatively well," FGE said. "Further out, we could see demand pick up as lockdowns are eased and pent-up demand is released during the summer driving season."
Oil notches second weekly gain despite India virus surge (Reuters) -Oil edged up slightly on Friday even as the COVID-19 crisis in India worsened, and prices notched a second weekly gain against the backdrop of optimism over a global economic recovery. Brent crude futures ended the session at $68.28 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled at $64.90 a barrel, both up 19 cents, or 0.3%. The two benchmarks rose by more than 1% on the week, their second consecutive weekly gain, as easing COVID-19 restrictions on movement in the United States and Europe, recovering factory operations and coronavirus vaccinations pave the way for a revival in fuel demand. "Oil prices might still have a positive second consecutive week, but it is nothing to get energy traders excited that oil will break away from its tightening trading range. Oil's short-term outlook remains very mixed," Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA said. In China, data showed export growth accelerated unexpectedly in April while a private survey pointed to strong expansion in service sector activity. However, crude imports by the world's biggest buyer fell 0.2% in April from a year earlier to 40.36 million tonnes, or 9.82 million barrels per day (bpd), the lowest since December. The recovery in oil demand, however, has been uneven as surging COVID-19 cases in India reduce fuel consumption in the world's third-largest oil importer and consumer. India on Friday reported a record daily rise in coronavirus cases of 414,188, while deaths from COVID-19 swelled by 3,915, according to health ministry data. "Brent came within a whisker of breaking past $70 a barrel this week but failed at the final hurdle as demand uncertainty dragged on prices," said Stephen Brennock at oil brokerage PVM. The resurgence of COVID-19 in countries such as India, Japan and Thailand is hindering gasoline demand recovery, energy consultancy FGE said in a client note, though some of the lost demand has been offset by countries such as China, where recent Labour Day holiday travel surpassed 2019 levels.
Oil giant Saudi Aramco beats estimates with 30% hike in first-quarter profit - Oil giant Saudi Aramco reported a 30% jump in net income Tuesday, in a sign of a continued recovery from the previous year's oil market crash that saw full-year earnings for the state firm slashed in half. In a release published Tuesday, the company said net income rose to $21.7 billion in the first three months of the year, up from $16.6 billion in the same period last year. It beat some analysts' estimates of $17.24 billion, despite lower oil production in February and March. The figure nears the firm's net income level in the first quarter of 2019, which was $22.2 billion. The company said free cash flow in the first quarter of 2021 was $18.3 billion, up from $15 billion over the same period last year. Saudi Arabia's behemoth oil producer also maintained its dividend, with $18.8 billion due to be paid out in both the first and second quarter. Aramco was forced to drastically cut its capital expenditure last year as the coronavirus pandemic hammered oil prices, and it "continues to explore plans to sell vital assets to raise funds," said Ellen Wald, president of Transversal Consulting and author of the book "Saudi, Inc." "It cannot be ignored that the massive dividend commitment and the need to fund the Saudi government budget are weights on the company," Wald told CNBC on Monday. "That doesn't mean Aramco isn't well positioned, but no other major oil company has to deal with these burdens." "Aramco maintains this because it has the cheapest costs of oil production in the world, with huge oil reserves and is very well managed," she added. "It has made the commitment to pay the dividend because the dividend is paid to the people of Saudi Arabia who own shares." The earnings reflect a dramatically improved climate for oil markets since the first quarter of last year, when Aramco reported a 25% fall in net income as it grappled with the initial fallout of the pandemic and cratering global demand. Aramco, like its global peers, has been navigating an uncertain oil price environment and unpredictable global economic recovery. The company described 2020 as "the most challenging year" in its history, and is now benefitting from the recovery in oil markets, with international benchmark Brent crude prices roughly double what they were this time last year. Refining and chemicals margins are also beginning to improve.
Israel About To Enter Post-Netanyahu Era After PM Fails To Form Government -- The already lengthy and continuing election deadlock drama in Israeli politics has once again pushed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the side, leaving his political future in extreme doubt. His mandate to form a new government has failed for the third time in two years, with the Likud leader's appointed window for doing so having expired on Tuesday night.The Israeli leader who was been prime minister since 2009 and has consistently focused on a national security platform was unable to strike an agreement with his main rival Naftali Bennett, chairman of the right wing Yamina party, which now shifts the mandate to his rivals in the centrist Yesh Atid party. On Wednesday Israeli's president formally tapped Yair Lapid - party leader of Yesh Atid - to forge a new government. The clock now starts on his 28 days.
Modi Resists Pressure to Lock Down India as Virus Deaths Rise --Two weeks ago, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi called on states to only consider lockdowns “as the last option.” Now everyone from his political allies to top business leaders and U.S. President Joe Biden’s chief medical adviser see them as the only way to stem the world’s worst virus outbreak. The debate has been complicated by Modi’s move last year to impose a nationwide lockdown without warning, spurring a humanitarian crisis as migrant workers fled on foot to rural areas. While Modi is keen to avoid that criticism again, particularly after his Bharatiya Janata Party failed to win an election in West Bengal when votes were counted Sunday, even states run by his party are ignoring his advice.“One of the problems is this false narrative that it’s either a full lockdown, which equates to economic disaster, or no lockdown, which is a public health disaster,” “What’s happening now is a health and an economic disaster. If you have huge swaths of your population getting sick, that’s not good for your population or your economy.” In the past week, television channels and social media have been flooded with grim scenes of overcrowded crematoriums and desperate pleas for oxygen from hospitals. On Tuesday, the country reported more than 357,000 new infections to cross 20 million cases, as well as 3,449 deaths. India’s richest banker Uday Kotak, who heads the Confederation of Indian Industry, urged the government to deploy the military to help care for patients and to take the “strongest national steps including curtailing economic activity to reduce suffering.” “We must heed expert advice on this subject -- from India and abroad,” he said. This represents a shift from India’s top business leaders. In April, a survey of the confederation’s members showed they were against lockdowns and wanted swift vaccination. In the past month however, the collapsing health infrastructure and mounting death toll has revealed the extent the crisis. Although policy makers have signaled they are ready to take steps to support growth, economists say a failure to flatten the virus curve could exert pressure on monetary and fiscal policies at a time when most of the conventional space available has already been used. The most immediately effective way to break the chain of transmission is to keep people far enough apart that the virus can’t jump from one to another. But others say complete national lockdown isn’t possible and would be disastrous for the poor, who have already suffered the most during the outbreak. The federal government has left it open for states to decide on local lockdowns, and places like the national capital Delhi and the financial hub Mumbai have imposed restrictions -- though they are less strict than last year.
Indian state elections deliver blow to Modi, amid COVID-19 catastrophe --Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his far-right Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) national government have suffered a major setback in five state assembly elections held in late March and April, but whose results were only tabulated on Sunday. The Hindu supremacist BJP fell far short of what it had loudly proclaimed to be its principal goal—wresting power in West Bengal, India’s fourth most populous state, from Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress. Banerjee is a right-wing demagogue, who came to power in 2011 exploiting mass anger over the Stalinist-led Left Front’s implementation of what it itself termed “pro-investor” policies. But the BJP views her as an adversary and calculated that a victory in West Bengal would give it a much needed political boost in the face of mounting opposition to its class war, communalist authoritarian agenda. Hoping to bank on its strong performance in West Bengal in the 2019 national election, the BJP poured enormous energy and resources into its campaign to defeat Banerjee. Modi and his chief henchman, Home Minister Amit Shah, held numerous rallies in West Bengal, where they shamelessly sought to polarize the electorate along communal lines, by championing their anti-Muslim Citizenship Amendment Act and denouncing Banerjee for “Muslim appeasement” and abetting “foreign infiltration.” However, the BJP failed even to match its 2019 vote share, while the TMC’s rose by 4 percentage points to more than 48 percent, enough to win 214 of the 294 state assembly seats. In Tamil Nadu, the sixth largest state, the BJP’s regional ally, the AIADMK, went down to defeat after 10 years in office. In the neighbouring southern state of Kerala, the BJP lost its sole state assembly seat. India’s ruling party did retain power in the northeastern state of Assam at the head of a coalition government. Its only other consolation came in Puducherry, a Union Territory and former French colonial enclave with a population of 1.25 million. There it was able to gain a share of power as the junior partner of a local Congress Party splitoff. The five states that went to the polls this spring have an aggregate population of 255 million, making them home to about 18 percent of all Indians. The campaign unfolded as COVID-19 cases surged across the country, transforming India into the pandemic’s global epicenter. Nevertheless, until the very final stages of West Bengal’s eight-phase election, Modi and the other party leaders recklessly continued to hold mass election rallies. This was part of a concerted campaign, spearheaded by Modi and his BJP, but supported by the entire political establishment, to systematically downplay the virus’ danger and project an air of normalcy to justify their keeping the “economy open.” India has been averaging more than 100,000 new COVID-19 infections since April 7; 200,000 since April 17; and 300,000 since April 24. As a consequence, India’s dilapidated health care system has been overwhelmed leading to mass deaths. Officially India has recorded more than 20,000 COVID-19 deaths in just the past seven days. But this is widely acknowledged to be only a fraction of the true death toll. “From all the modeling we’ve done, we believe the true number of deaths is two to five times what is being reported,” University of Michigan epidemiologist Bhramar Mukherjee told the New York Times. There is mounting mass anger against the Modi government. Over its criminal mishandling of the pandemic. Over its attempts to “revive” India’s economy through further austerity, an accelerated privatization drive, a battery of pro-agribusiness laws, and a labour code “reform” that promotes precious contract-labour jobs and outlaws most strikes. And over its moves to further integrate India into US imperialism’s military-strategic offensive against China.
India’s national government looks increasingly hapless - Two short months ago Narendra Modi’s government was one of the most popular and confident in India’s history. Now, judging by fresh election results, by the eruption of criticism even in the largely docile mainstream media, by sharp reprimands issued by top courts, by thumbs-down judgments by seasoned analysts and by a level of rage on social media unusual even for India’s hothouse online forums, the prime minister and his government are in trouble.It is not simply that evidence has mounted of repeated failures to heed warnings of an impending second wave of covid-19, including from the government’s own health experts. Nor is it just that Mr Modi and his team have struggled to respond to a calamity greater than India has experienced in generations. Indians are accustomed to ineptitude and meagre support. Rather it is a sense of utter abandonment, especially among the politically noisy middle class, that is driving the anger.The epidemic continues to worsen. On May 5th the country reported over 412,000 new infections, its highest number yet. Half of all cases of covid-19 recorded around the world are in India, up from one in 25 at the start of March. The number of covid deaths tripled in March, and then in April leapt by a factor of ten. With a quarter of all tests in the country returning a positive result, up five-fold in the past month, it is clear that India’s monster second wave has yet to reach its peak. Already nearly a quarter of a million Indians have died after being infected by the virus, and that is going by the government’s own numbers.For any country to suffer such devastation is awful enough. But even as the official death toll has mounted, faith in its accuracy has sunk. Epidemiological and anecdotal evidence point to massive undercounting. Journalists across India have detailed scores of cases where official tallies are much lower than those gathered from hospitals, crematoriums and obituaries. In rural areas, where two-thirds of the population lives, both data and health care are even harder to come by. Partly as a result, a curve that has moved as sharply as the one describing infections is the one tracing the reputation of India’s government, albeit in the opposite direction.Mr Modi has done himself no favours. During much of March and April he devoted far more energy to campaigning in one state election, in West Bengal, than to increasingly urgent cries of panic. In response to the revelation that his government had hugely miscalculated the availability of vaccines, he turned to showmanship, declaring a national “Tika Utsav” or Inoculation Festival. Since it was launched, the number of people getting vaccinations every day has fallen by half, owing to shortages. Belatedly addressing the public on April 20th, Mr Modi warned against lockdowns and called instead for testing, isolating the infected and tracing their contacts. Recognising that it was too late for such measures to have any effect, most Indian states and big cities locked down anyway.The crisis has forced Mr Modi’s government into embarrassing policy reversals. Its vaccine campaign, touted in January as the world’s biggest and most generous, has been sharply adjusted. After banning vaccine exports to address the national shortfall, the government abruptly declared that individual states and private actors would have to bear half the burden. Despite proclaiming self-reliance as the hallmark of his new India, Mr Modi broke with a policy begun by the previous government of rejecting foreign aid, and welcomed planeloads of medical supplies donated by more than a dozen foreign governments. The severity of shortages, particularly of oxygen, and the wrenching and very public misery caused by this growing disaster made it impossible not to.
Nationalism Kills -THE MASS FUNERAL PYRES continue to burn all over India. After Covid-19 case numbers rocketed upward throughout April, the surge became cataclysmic in the first week of May. Patients were dying at the gates of hospitals, their relatives desperately trying to find them beds and oxygen cylinders. On Tuesday, May 4, the country passed the grim milestone of twenty million cases. The official death count—whose numbers are, by everyone’s admission, vastly underestimated—reached 226,188 people. These were the dead who were counted as having died of Covid despite the informal instructions given to health authorities to classify the deaths as Bimari, the Hindi word for “sickness,” rather than of Covid-19. The tenor of the central government, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, was recalcitrant, never once admitting that the mass election rallies and fervent religious commemorations on the banks of the Ganges played any part at all in India’s grim reality. Their focus remained on “good” news, a request that the country’s television media, which relies on licensing by the Modi government, was glad to follow. In a debate held Wednesday evening on Republic TV, a pro-Modi channel, six doctors from various parts of India were asked to discuss the positive news that cases were below the peak of four hundred thousand per day for the past two days. This, the moderator and most of the doctors insisted, was because the surge was now under control. Only one of them, a Dr. Ishwar Gilada, had the guts to openly state the obvious. He said that case numbers were down because there are no tests left to administer. He reviewed peaking caseloads around the country and suggested the numbers could go higher. “We are in very bad shape,” he said. Americans sadly are familiar with this deadly numbers game that is the single trick of the nationalist pony. It featured as a central theme of the Trump administration’s handling of Covid, which even as late as July 2020 opposed funds for contract tracingto be included in the second Covid relief package. The president was even more strident about holding back testing. “If we stopped testing right now, we’d have very few cases, if any,” he told reporters at the White House. The mass rallies, the eschewing of masks, and the creative statistics are not the only bits the Modi administration seems to have copied exactly from the Trump administration’s playbook. Just as Trump persisted with his lethal rallies, the Modi administration, which wants to transform India into a Hindu state, took out full-page advertisements in Indian dailies saying it was safe to participate in the Kumbh Mela, a gathering of millions that involves a dip in the Ganges. So, too, did they ask masses of people to participate in election rallies in the state of West Bengal, a state Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party ended up losing anyway.Ever since India plunged into the dark and hapless place it finds itself, the Modi administration has blamed state governments for the spread of Covid. Delhi, which is one of the epicenters of the surge and from where many of the ghastly images of endlessly burning funeral pyres have emerged, is controlled by the Aam Aadmi Party (Common Man Party). The chief minister, Arvind Kejriwal, a foe of Prime Minister Modi, has claimed that the central government is not even providing the city of almost seventeen million with its allotted quota of oxygen, let alone what it actually needs.
Thousands flock to community pantries in the Philippines as Covid-19 rapidly spreads --A grass-roots movement of mutual aid, in the form of community pantries, is spreading in the Philippines amid the raging COVID-19 pandemic and the continuation of the herd immunity policy of the ruling elites. The pantries are set up on the side of the street, often on just a wooden table laden with basic food items. Sections of better off workers, the self-employed, and small businessmen have spontaneously mobilized to give the little extra they have to those desperately poor and the unemployed who, in the hundreds and thousands have endured long lines to obtain food supplies for themselves and their families. The movement was sparked off on April 14 when Ana Patricia Non, 26-year-old business owner of a small furniture making shop, set up a wooden push cart on Maginhawa street in Quezon City. It had a few vegetables, oranges, canned goods and plastic bags of rice and two signs. One sign read, “Maginhawa Community Pantry” and the second, translated from Filipino, “Give what you can, take what you need.” On the second day of Non’s initiative, ABS-CBN news reported that among her “customers” was a street sweeper. She had stopped during her cleaning and bagged one head of cabbage, one turnip, a chayote and an orange. She planned, she said, after her shift, to mix the vegetables with sardines for her children. It would be the first produce that she had brought home in two weeks, when she was last paid. The news site also reported that an elderly couple, who had been foraging through the garbage, took bananas, some greens, and a couple of vitamin capsules from the pantry. “I really have nothing, no hope,” said the man, who was on crutches. In the weeks since then, this first pantry has served over 3,000 people. According to the Saan May Community Pantry? [Where is a Community Pantry?] website, 725 pantries have been set up around the Philippines. A report stated that a community pantry has even been set up in East Timor. Images in the media reveal the degree of desperation for basic resources in the population. Crowds of hundreds line the pavement to try to get a few free vegetables and a canned good or two. The lines often begin forming at three in the morning. An old man, who worked as a roadside vendor, died of heatstroke last week while standing in a line to receive a few free items of food. He had been waiting since long before dawn.
Brazilian senate votes to suspend patents in bid to widen access to Covid-19 vaccines - After a year of politicking, the Brazilian senate passed a bill that would permit the government to temporarily suspend any and all patents for medical products that could be used to fight Covid-19, as well as any future public health emergency declared by Brazilian authorities or the World Health Organization. Any license would be valid only for the duration of such an emergency.The legislation now goes to the lower house of Congress, although it remains unclear if it will have the same level of support. At the time the bill was introduced a year ago, the government of President Bolsonaro publicly opposed proposals to suspend patent protections, arguing such a move could endanger talks with vaccine makers. We asked his office for comment and will pass along any reply.
At Least 20 Killed, Dozens Hospitalized, In Mexico City Overpass Collapse -An overpass in Mexico City collapsed Monday night, plunging subway cars filled with passengers to the ground below. At least 20 people have been killed, with many more - roughly 70, according to the latest reports - badly injured.Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum said during press conference at the scene of the accident that 49 people had been transported to various hospitals. The accident on Line 12 of the subway system was caused by a broken beam, the mayor said."We are going to do all the investigations to determine what the causes were," the mayor said. "We can’t speculate at this moment." Disturbing scenes broadcast on Mexico's Milenio TV showed how the overpass collapsed and the train tumbled on to unsuspecting cars below, sending up a cloud of dust. Hundreds of firefighters and civil defense personnel rushed to pull people and bodies from the rubble, while ambulances rushed the injured to several hospitals across the city. Mexico City’s metro system is one of the largest in the world, and it carries about five million commuters per day. It’s central to the functioning of the capital city's economy.Inaugurated in 2012, Line 12 is one of the system’s most recent additions and runs between the neighborhoods of Tlahuac and Mixcoac, connecting commuters from the city's outskirts to its downtown. Update (0745ET): Wire reports have updated the number of casualties from last night's overpass collapse in Mexico City. At least 23 have now died, and another 70 are injured. “Unfortunately there are 23 deceased,” including minors, Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum told reporters at the scene in the south of the capital, according to Agence France-Presse. She added that first responders can't tell if any of the people trapped in the rubble are alive, or not.
Mexico City transit bridge collapse leaves 24 dead, scores injured - The collapse of an overpass on Mexico City’s newest metro train line Monday night has left at least 24 dead and 79 injured after train cars and chunks of concrete plummeted onto a street 65 feet below, crushing passing vehicles. The disaster has fueled growing popular anger over criminal government negligence and corruption that has also led to hundreds of thousands of COVID-19 deaths in Mexico, among the countries worst hit by the pandemic. At the site of the collapse, rescue crews and first responders worked frantically to save the lives of the injured and pull survivors from the rubble, the fallen train cars and damaged motor vehicles. Heavy equipment was brought in to lower the train cars hanging from the tracks and recover the bodies of four passengers trapped inside. Helmeted troops armed with automatic weapons surrounded the site. Distraught relatives raced from hospital to hospital trying to find missing loved ones who were taking the train that night. One youth who found out that his father, a driver, had been killed in the disaster told Univisión, “Like everyone else I want justice. This was not our fault.” The train disaster took place at around 10:30 p.m. Monday on an elevated section of the number 12 Line of the city’s metro system in the southeast of the Mexican capital. The 12 Line, the newest section of the mass transit system, was built in 2012 to connect the eastern part of Mexico City, among its less developed areas, to the city center. From its start, the project was plagued by cost overruns, late completion, shoddy construction and charges of wholesale political corruption. According to Jorge Gaviño, who was the director of the metro system in 2017, the line “was born with endemic problems that would never be solved in its life” and would require continuous maintenance. The Mexican media reported that people living in the Los Olivos neighborhood near the collapsed overpass had repeatedly warned last year that cracks were appearing in the bridge and that there was visible shaking of its columns and overhead beams. The structure had been damaged in the powerful 2017 earthquake that struck southeast of the city, killing 369 people. Transit workers announced Tuesday that they will carry out a strike to shut down all 12 lines of Mexico City’s Collective Transport System (STC) over increasingly dangerous conditions and lack of maintenance and to demand the immediate sacking of the system’s director, Florencia Serranía. López Obrador, popularly known as AMLO, insisted that there would be a swift and thorough investigation of the disaster and that there would be “no impunity for anyone.” He promised that “absolutely nothing will be hidden” from the public. At the same time, he warned against “falling into the realm of speculation and blaming without having proof of those possibly responsible.” Sheinbaum made similar remarks to reporters, declaring, “At this moment, we can’t speculate about what happened. There has to be a deep investigation, and whoever is responsible has to be held responsible.” Both AMLO and Sheinbaum have ample political motives for tamping down “speculation.” The present Mexican president and his political allies have controlled the Mexican capital since the beginning of the 2000s.
Global consumer price surge hits workers --Over the last week leading businesses, banks and financial analysts have released estimates predicting that global consumer prices, whether toilet paper, electronics, or food, have and will continue to rise substantially in 2021. Already in the United States, the Consumer Price Index, a measure of average prices, increased by 0.6 percent in March, the largest monthly increase since August 2012. In the UK, prices increased by 0.7 percent in the same month. At the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholder meeting this past weekend, billionaire Warren Buffett said, “We are seeing substantial inflation. We are raising prices. People are raising prices to us, and it’s being accepted.” He described the economy as “red hot.” A list of major global brands has already announced major price increases:
- Kimberly-Clark, which owns Kleenex and a host of other bathroom and hygiene products, said it would increase prices on all major products in North America due to “significant” cost inflation, increasing prices 5 to 10 percent.
- Procter & Gamble, which owns dozens of leading household brands, including Tide, Gillette, Crest, Pampers, Dawn, Swiffer, Ivory, IAMS and Head & Shoulders, will increase prices in personal care products 5 to 10 percent to “offset significant commodity cost inflation.”
- General Mills’ chief financial officer (CFO) of the global food processor told analysts on a call that it was facing “increased supply-chain and freight costs ‘in this higher-demand environment,’” according to the New York Times.
- Whirpool’s CFO told Yahoo Finance that it was increasing the cost of its products by 5 to 12 percent in response to rising steel costs. Steel prices are up about 75 percent since March 2020.
- Kraft Heinz’s CEO Miguel Patricio told Reuters that there would be increases to food products such as salad dressings, sweets, mac & cheese, and other wheat-containing products, as well as mayonnaise.
- Unilever, a major global food manufacturer, owner of Lipton, said there would be a high, single-digit percentage increase in costs.
These cost increases will disproportionately impact the working class, who spend a larger portion of their income on food and basic consumer goods. In the US, for example, the bottom quintile of the population spends 36 percent of its income on food, whereas the average household spends 13 percent on food. Already, workers throughout the world face a grim job market, where wages and employment levels remain below pre-pandemic levels. Bloomberg has estimated that some 150 million “middle class” global workers, making between $10 and $20 a day, have been pushed back below that wage group. The International Labor Organization estimated in January that an equivalent of 255 million full-time jobs were lost due to the pandemic. In this context of extreme economic difficulty, rising prices will severely impact the livelihoods of workers.
COVID-19 death of 13-year-old Brampton girl underscores criminality of Canada’s open economy/open schools policy - The tragic death of a young teenage girl in Brampton, Ontario has brought home the terrifying reality to parents across Canada that despite what they have been told by the political and media establishment, they can lose their young children to COVID-19. On April 22, Emily Victoria Viegas became one of the youngest Canadians to die from the disease when she was found unresponsive by her brother in their shared bedroom. In a scenario that is all too common for working class families across the country, COVID-19 spread throughout Emily’s family. Emily’s mother was in hospital on oxygen at the time of her daughter’s death, and her younger brother had also contracted the virus. Emily’s father, Carlos Viegas, a warehouse worker, was the only member of the family not to test positive for the virus, but both Brampton schools and warehouses have been ravaged by COVID-19 infections. Emily’s tragic, entirely preventable death has triggered an outpouring of anger towards the political elite and solidarity with the stricken family across Canada. A fundraiser to support the family gathered donations of over $112,000 in a matter of days. A rural family doctor wrote on Twitter, “NO MORE CROCODILE TEARS. A Brampton family has lost their 13 yr. old child. Her mother remains in hospital. This hard hit area was supposed to have been prioritized for vaccines, but promises aren’t action. [Ontario Premier Doug Ford] tell us the concrete actions you’re taking now or RESIGN.” A parent tweeted, “I hear calls not to politicize Emily Viegas’ death. My son died from failed public health measures. I desperately wish every single politician in the last five years had taken Jude’s death as a call to action so there’d never be another family like mine. Fix what’s broken.”Emily Victoria Viegas’s death did not occur in a vacuum. It was the direct result of the policy decisions made by the Justin Trudeau-led federal Liberal government, Ontario’s Conservative government and their counterparts across the country, at the behest of Canada’s capitalist elite. The most consequential of these decisions was to prioritize the protection of corporate profits over human lives, keep the economy and schools open at all costs, and refuse to provide adequate financial support so that families like Emily’s could shelter safely at home until the pandemic was contained.
Germany’s official COVID-19 contagion policy puts hundreds of thousands of students and educators at risk - The amendment to Germany’s Infection Protection Act, passed last week, reinforces the government’s reckless contagion policy in schools and threatens the health of thousands of students and educators.New COVID-19 infections in Germany have averaged around 20,000 per day in recent weeks. That is more than three times the total at the peak of the first lockdown. According to the latest report by the renowned Robert Koch Institute (RKI), coronavirus infection figures have increased among younger people, largely due to the opening up of schools.The RKI assesses the threat to the health of the population as very high. Particularly threatening are the increasing mass outbreaks in day-care centres, schools and workplaces. This is especially dangerous against the background of the rapid spread of British, South African and Brazilian variants, which are more contagious and frequently lead to severe health consequences, including among younger people.Since autumn, 335 cases of pupils, 129 of teachers and 182 of other educators are reported to have been hospitalised because of COVID-19. Three teachers and six education care staff have died from the disease. The number of unreported cases is much higher, with information only available for those officially registered as infected.As the World Socialist Web Site has already reported, the government’s coronavirus “emergency brake” is utterly ineffective. It stipulates that nationwide in-person classes will continue as long as the seven-day incidence figure for infections does not exceed 165.Scientists have been saying for months that this level is much too high. When German schools were due to reopen after summer holidays last year, the RKI recommended schools adopt reduced alternate teaching rotas based on an incidence of 35 and to revert to online, distance teaching when the incidence reached 50.The fact that the value of 165 is purely arbitrary and has no scientific basis can be seen from the fact that only 170 districts closed schools despite high infection levels after the “emergency brake” was applied much too late. In addition, according to the RKI, incidence levels among 5- to 14-year-olds, i.e., the group that goes to school, is significantly higher than among the rest of the population. For this younger age group, the incidence is above 165 in 277 regions and between 100 and 165 in 93 regions.
German factories and low-income neighbourhoods left exposed to massive COVID-19 outbreaks -- People are getting infected by COVID-19 at especially high rates in workplaces, schools and low-income neighbourhoods in Germany. Several studies and examples testify to this. Nonetheless, they receive virtually no protection and are largely excluded from lockdown measures. This also applies to the recently adopted “federal emergency brake.” For workplaces in particular, there are almost no protective measures and the few that exist are never reviewed and enforced. The number of workplace safety inspections declined during the first year of the pandemic by 15 percent. Factories must remain open so profits continue to flow, even if this means that workers’ health and lives are put at risk. The publicly funded media, big business and the trade unions are doing everything in their power to downplay the danger. Even directly affected work colleagues are often never informed about outbreaks in workplaces. Reports are usually restricted to the local media when larger outbreaks occur. Here are two typical examples: At the kitchen furniture producer Menke-Küchen in Kirchlengen (North Rhine-Westphalia) around 20 workers have been infected, according to the head of the business, Hans-Dieter Menke. This was reported by the Neue Westfälische Zeitung on April 29. The first case was detected on the assembly line one week earlier. Tests by the local health authority then revealed that 20 workers, or one in six of the total workforce of 120, were infected. All of those infected and their contacts were sent into quarantine. An even larger outbreak occurred at the Brüggen vehicle plant in Lübtheen (Ludwigslust-Parchim district, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania). Almost 200 of the workers, who build truck parts, tested positive. Most of them displayed COVID-19 symptoms. The outbreak is one of the largest to take place at a workplace in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. Infections spread exponentially among the production workers. Responsibility for this lies with the British variant of the virus, B.1.1.7, according to local medical officer Ute Siering. The incidence rose in the district to 227 per 100,000 inhabitants. Five hundred workers, almost all from the production department, were sent into quarantine. This amounts to half of the 1,000 workers employed at the site and more than 10 percent of the entire population of Lübtheen, which has 4,900 residents. A residential block near to the factory where many workers live was placed under quarantine. The production hall was closed last Friday for two weeks. Departments of the business separated from the production hall are continuing to operate. These two examples are the tip of the iceberg of countless outbreaks in factories, businesses and other workplaces.
Amid COVID-19 pandemic, Germany, France spend billions on new fighter jets -Germany, France and Spain are negotiating a multi-billion-euro project to develop a joint European fighter jet, the Future Combat Air System (FCAS). Brushing aside the over 1 million European deaths from COVID-19 due to the European Union’s (EU) “herd immunity” policy with the claim there is no money to fund a scientific social distancing policy, they are preparing to instead spend hundreds of billions of euros on war planning. Yesterday, French Junior Defence Minister for Armament Joël Barre announced that a final deal on the FCAS could be announced this week. A financing deal between Airbus and Dassault on the FCAS was already announced on April 6. Airbus, French defence contractors Dassault and Thales, and various subcontractors across Europe are the key firms involved in the FCAS, which is expected to replace both Dassault’s Rafale jet and the Eurofighter made by Airbus in 2040. Last month, German Defence Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer and her French counterpart, Florence Parly, met to discuss the FCAS program. This came amid reports that German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservative government is anxious to have the FCAS programme’s financing fully decided before the Bundestag (parliament) elections in September. Kramp-Karrenbauer declared that the programme is in a “very decisive phase.” She indicated that some final points, such as engine development, still need clarification, adding, “we as politicians expect the industry to jointly find a viable basis (for the next steps of the project) which we can accept.” There are continuing tensions, however, as German and French unions fight over which models and what factories would be most involved in building the fighter jet. For her part, Parly called the FCAS “above all a political project,” declaring: “It is above all the will of France and Germany to give the very best to our army and to build a European defence programme that both countries seek. Both of us think the same thing: we need an agreement by the end of the month.”
Infected Indian Foreign Minister Disrupts G-7 Summit In London --As India's brutal second COVID-19 wave spills over its borders and across the region, a team of forecasters at the Indian Institute of Science in Bangalore has warned - using a mathematical model - that deaths could double as soon as next week, India's foreign minister is now self-isolating after two delegates to recent G-7 meetings in London tested positive to the virus, Bloomberg reports. India's External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar was reportedly informed that he had been exposed to somebody infected with the virus on Wednesday, one day after Jaishankar held a socially distanced in-person meeting with UK home secretary Priti Patel on Tuesday, where the two agreed on a "migration and mobility deal' which will provide a "bespoke route" for young professionals from India looking to live and work in the UK. Jaishankar also met Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, earlier this week. As one twitter wit pointed out, the incident is like a metaphor for India's current situation, as more public-health experts warn that India's worsening outbreak risks reviving outbreaks in the US and Europe. Many countries have moved to cut off all non-essential travel between India for exactly this reason. As Bloomberg points out, the blowback could turn into an embarrassment for the US and the Biden Administration. The announcement could swiftly shut down a high-profile event that is supposed to mark the G-7 debut of Secretary of State Antony Blinken. The two-day event is being hosted by the UK. Fortunately, according to the FT, members of the Indian delegation hadn't yet attended G7 meetings in Lancaster House, London, where talks took place on Tuesday and continued on Wednesday. The meetings, the first face-to-face gathering of the group’s foreign ministers in more than two years, were set to include representatives from Australia and India in some of the sessions alongside the G-7 advanced economies as the UK (and the US) seeks to strengthen its ties within the Indo-Pacific region.British PM Boris Johnson defended the decision to hold the G7 meetings in person, arguing that it was important for the government “to try to continue as much business” as possible despite the pandemic.
Union complains Trump's Scottish golf resort got COVID-19 relief but still fired staff - Union officials in the U.K. have accused the Trump Organization of taking advantage of the country's job retention program by accepting more than £500,000 in COVID-19 job funding but still firing staff members. The Scotsman reports that union officials accused Trump's Turnberry resort of carrying out an “all-out assault on jobs and conditions," referring to the situation as a "scandal." The union representatives say at least £110,000, or just over $150,000, was claimed while former President Trump was still in office. The Scotsman reports at least 66 people were laid off from the golf resort since last summer. The newspaper notes that the golf resort has not done anything wrong in claiming the funds as they are entitled to join the U.K.'s furlough initiative and other golf resorts have claimed more in funds. However, the National Union of Rail, Maritime and Transport Workers (RMT) said the Trump Organization made a "mockery" of the U.K. program by “hoovering up” and still firing staff. The RMT's general manager, Mick Cash, said, "It is clear to us that at the very least the principles of the job retention scheme appear to have been breached by the Trump Organisation and that should now be subjected to a detailed and forensic investigation by HMRC.” “It's a scandal and as we slowly emerge from lockdown, we are calling for any discarded staff to be re-engaged on decent pay and conditions, and for that same principle to be applied to new employees as well," Cash added. Trump's Scottish golf course fell under scrutiny earlier this year after Scottish lawmakers called on the government to investigate where Trump obtained the funds to purchase the resort. The lawmakers want First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon to ask for an “unexplained wealth order” which would start an accounting investigation to prove the source of Trump's funding. If the Trump Organization is unable to prove that the money came from a legitimate source, the Scottish government could confiscate the property. The golf course was bought during a spending spree Trump went through in 2006 and no indication was made at the time that he took out any loans to purchase the property. Financial disclosure forms have revealed that the Turnberry property has been an enormous financial burden on the Trump Organization, costing more than $280 million through the years and never turning a profit.
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