week ending Aug 28

The pressure is on for Powell and the Federal Reserve to manage the exit from ultra-easy policies --For the Federal Reserve, implementing the easiest monetary policy in the institution's history was tough enough. Getting out will be no treat, either. That is what the central bank faces on its road ahead. Investors on Friday will hear more on what Fed Chairman Jerome Powell thinks about the economy. They're also expecting to get at least a few more clues on how he will guide the central bank's exit from the measures it took to rescue the nation's economy from the Covid-19 pandemic. He will deliver a speech in conjunction with the Fed's annual Jackson Hole conference, which again will be held virtually this year. First on the Fed's docket is pulling back on the money printing – the $120 billion or so of bonds it buys each month to stimulate demand and drive down long-term interest rates. After that, the road gets rougher. At some point, the Fed will look to raise short-term interest rates off the near-zero anchor where they've sat since March 2020. Getting rates back to normal didn't end well for the Fed the last time it attempted to do so from 2015-18, as it had to stop in mid-cycle amid a slumping economy. Hence, markets could be excused for being at least a little nervous this time around. The Fed not only has to turn around its most-aggressive easing policies ever, it must do so with precision and hopes that it doesn't break anything in the process. "I think it's particularly more meaningful today because we know growth is slowing and the Fed is trying to exit." Indeed, the economy is still well within a strong recovery from the depths of the pandemic, which yielded the steepest but shortest recession in U.S. history. But the rebound has seemed to at least be stalling. The Citi Economic Surprise Index, which measures actual data against Wall Street estimates, was at a record high in mid-July. But the index has now slumped to levels last seen in June 2020. Fed officials themselves expect noticeably slower growth in the years ahead at a time when both monetary and fiscal policy will be tighter. That raises more questions about whether Powell and his cohorts can get the exit right. "Tapering is important because it's a very good measure of not only the credibility of the Fed but in terms of communication, how good is the strategy and how transparent it is,"

Dilemma for Fed chief: High inflation and a surging virus (AP) — Not long ago, anticipation was high that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell might begin to sketch out a plan this week for the Fed to start pulling back on its support for an economy that has been steadily strengthening. That was before COVID-19 cases began accelerating across the country. Now, the decision of how and when the Fed should begin dialing back its help for the economy has become a more complicated one. Yet in outlining his view of the economy and the threats it faces in a high-profile speech Friday, Powell may provide important clues to the timing of changes in the Fed’s ultra-low-interest rate policies. The big question has been when the Fed will begin to slow its purchases of Treasury and mortgage bonds. The Fed has been buying $120 billion in bonds each month since the pandemic erupted in March 2020 to try to keep longer-term rates low and encourage borrowing and spending. It has also pegged its short-term benchmark interest rate at nearly zero since then. Powell will be speaking Friday at an annual conference of academics and central bankers. The conference, sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and normally held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, will instead be a virtual-only event for a second straight year. A surge of COVID-19 cases near the Wyoming resort delivered a direct impact on the Fed itself by forcing a last-minute cancellation of its in-person plans. The hasty shift to an online event reflects the rapid rebound of the pandemic, led by the delta variant, particularly in the South and Northwest. It follows a sharp decline in confirmed cases earlier in the summer that had raised hopes that the coronavirus and its economic impact might be fading. Just a few weeks ago, many Fed officials were signaling that the economy was making solid progress toward the central bank’s twin goals of maximum employment and annual inflation at just above 2% for a sustained period. Several presidents of regional Federal Reserve Banks said they wanted to announce a reduction, or taper, of the bond purchases at the Fed’s next meeting in September. Yet some economists have been slashing their forecasts for economic growth in the current July-September quarter. Restaurant traffic has declined slightly. Last week, Powell said it wasn’t yet clear what the delta strain’s impact on the economy would be. But he emphasized that the pandemic was far from over and was still “casting a shadow on economic activity.” With the economic picture hazier now, economists will be listening carefully for clues Powell may provide about the Fed’s intentions.

Fed Chair Powell: "It could be appropriate to start reducing the pace of asset purchases this year" - From Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole Symposium: Monetary Policy in the Time of Covid (Watch speech here). Excerpt: That brings me to a concluding word on the path ahead for monetary policy. The Committee remains steadfast in our oft-expressed commitment to support the economy for as long as is needed to achieve a full recovery. The changes we made last year to our Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy are well suited to address today's challenges. We have said that we would continue our asset purchases at the current pace until we see substantial further progress toward our maximum employment and price stability goals, measured since last December, when we first articulated this guidance. My view is that the "substantial further progress" test has been met for inflation. There has also been clear progress toward maximum employment. At the FOMC's recent July meeting, I was of the view, as were most participants, that if the economy evolved broadly as anticipated, it could be appropriate to start reducing the pace of asset purchases this year. The intervening month has brought more progress in the form of a strong employment report for July, but also the further spread of the Delta variant. We will be carefully assessing incoming data and the evolving risks. Even after our asset purchases end, our elevated holdings of longer-term securities will continue to support accommodative financial conditions. The timing and pace of the coming reduction in asset purchases will not be intended to carry a direct signal regarding the timing of interest rate liftoff, for which we have articulated a different and substantially more stringent test. We have said that we will continue to hold the target range for the federal funds rate at its current level until the economy reaches conditions consistent with maximum employment, and inflation has reached 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. We have much ground to cover to reach maximum employment, and time will tell whether we have reached 2 percent inflation on a sustainable basis.

It's getting harder to keep the Fed out of politics - Every six weeks, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell steps to a podium and reads a statement from the Federal Open Market Committee. The statement explains where the panel has set its federal funds rate — the rate at which it pays interest on reserves held at the Fed, and effectively a systemwide floor for interest rates across the globe. Powell then explains how the FOMC is viewing current economic conditions and when or under which circumstances its stance on monetary policy might change. And then he takes questions from reporters.Most people don’t think of this as particularly remarkable, and the Fed press conferences themselves rarely are. But very few federal agencies provide these kinds of regular press briefings — the White House has daily briefings, of course, and the Pentagon has regular if not daily briefings. The State Department holds press events every week. But none of those departments are regulators — they respond to world events in real time.

Brainard’s diaries show calls with Warren, Biden-Harris Fed team --Federal Reserve Gov. Lael Brainard spoke with the Biden-Harris Federal Reserve transition team in January and with the president’s Council of Economic Advisers in May, her calendar shows. The meeting with the Fed transition team occurred Jan. 8 and included Gary Gensler, who is now Securities and Exchange Commission chairman. Brainard’s diaries were provided to Bloomberg in response to a request and had not been previously released. Brainard is the only Democrat on the Fed’s Board of Governors in Washington. Bloomberg reported Thursday that Biden advisors are considering recommending her to President Biden as the next Fed vice chair for supervision. That post is currently occupied by Randal Quarles, whose term in the role expires in October. Bloomberg previously reported that Biden considered her for Treasury secretary before picking former Fed Chair Janet Yellen.

PCE Price Index: July Headline at 4.2% YoY - The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report for July was published this morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The latest Headline PCE price index was up 0.417% month-over-month (MoM) and is up 4.17% year-over-year (YoY). Core PCE (YoY) is now at 3.62%, above the Fed's 2% target rate. The adjacent thumbnail gives us a close-up of the trend in YoY Core PCE since January 2012. The first string of red data points highlights the 12 consecutive months when Core PCE hovered in a narrow range around its interim low. The second string highlights the lower range from late 2014 through 2015. Core PCE shifted higher in 2016 with a decline in 2017, 2019, and 2020. The first chart below shows the monthly year-over-year change in the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index since 2000. Also included is an overlay of the Core PCE (less Food and Energy) price index, which is Fed's preferred indicator for gauging inflation. The two percent benchmark is the Fed's conventional target for core inflation. Most recently, the Fed reviewed their monetary policy strategy and longer-term goals and released a statement, mentioning its federal mandate to promote "maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates". They also confirmed their commitment to using the two percent benchmark as a lower limit: "The Committee reaffirms its judgment that inflation at the rate of 2 percent, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, is most consistent over the longer run with the Federal Reserve's statutory mandate. The Committee judges that longer-term inflation expectations that are well anchored at 2 percent foster price stability and moderate long-term interest rates and enhance the Committee's ability to promote maximum employment in the face of significant economic disturbances. In order to anchor longer-term inflation expectations at this level, the Committee seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time, and therefore judges that, following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time." Read the August 2020 statement here. The index data is shown to two decimal points to highlight the change more accurately. It may seem trivial to focus such detail on numbers that will be revised again next month (the three previous months are subject to revision and the annual revision reaches back three years). But core PCE is such a key measure of inflation for the Federal Reserve that precision seems warranted.

Chicago Fed: "Index points to a pickup in economic growth in July" -- "Index points to a pickup in economic growth in July." is the headline for this morning's release of the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index, and here is the opening paragraph from the report: Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.53 in July from –0.01 in June. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in July, and three categories improved from June. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved up to +0.23 in July from +0.01 in June. [Download report] The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly indicator designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. It is a composite of 85 monthly indicators as explained in thisbackground PDF file on the Chicago Fed's website. The index is constructed so a zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth. Negative values indicate below-average growth, and positive values indicate above-average growth. The first chart below shows the recent behavior of the index since 2007. The red dots show the indicator itself, which is quite noisy, together with the 3-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3), which is more useful as an indicator of the actual trend for coincident economic activity.

Q2 GDP Growth Revised up to 6.6% Annual Rate - From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2021 (Second Estimate); Corporate Profits, 2nd Quarter 2021 (Preliminary Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 6.6 percent in the second quarter of 2021, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 6.3 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 6.5 percent. The update reflects upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and exports that were partly offset by downward revisions to private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised down. Here is a Comparison of Second and Advance Estimates. PCE growth was revised up from 11.8% to 11.9%. Residential investment was revised down from -9.8% to -11.5%. This was slightly below the consensus forecast.

Q2 GDP Second Estimate: Real GDP Inches Up To 6.6% - The Second Estimate for Q2 GDP, to one decimal, came in at 6.6% (6.56% to two decimal places), an increase from 6.3% (6.28% to two decimal places) for the Q1 Third Estimate. Investing.com had a consensus of 6.7%.Here is the slightly abbreviated opening text from the Bureau of Economic Analysis news release: Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 6.6 percent in the second quarter of 2021 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 6.3 percent.The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 6.5 percent. The update reflects upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and exports that were partly offset by downward revisions to private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised down (see "Updates to GDP"). [Full Release] Here is a look at Quarterly GDP since Q2 1947. Prior to 1947, GDP was an annual calculation. To be more precise, the chart shows is the annualized percentage change from the preceding quarter in Real (inflation-adjusted) Gross Domestic Product. We've also included recessions, which are determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Also illustrated are the 3.19% average (arithmetic mean) and the 10-year moving average, currently at 2.30%.

U.S. economy in Q2 revised up to annualized 6.6 pct – Xinhua (Xinhua) -- The U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 6.6 percent in the second quarter in second estimate, up from the 6.5 percent in advance estimate, the U.S. Commerce Department reported Thursday. The update reflects upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and exports that were partly offset by downward revisions to private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending, according to the report. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of gross domestic product (GDP), were revised down. Despite the upward revision, the 6.6-percent gain is still considerably less than consensus estimate. In the first quarter, real GDP increased by 6.3 percent. In 2020, the U.S. economy contracted 3.4 percent amid the pandemic. "In the second quarter, government assistance payments in the form of loans to businesses and grants to state and local governments increased, while social benefits to households, such as the direct economic impact payments, declined," the report said. The increase in real GDP in the second quarter reflected increases in personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and state and local government spending, which were partly offset by decreases in private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, and federal government spending, the report showed. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. The latest GDP data was released on the same day as the Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims ticked up to 353,000 last week amid a Delta variant-fueled COVID-19 surge, after falling for four straight weeks, indicating a bumpy economic recovery. The U.S. Federal Reserve has pledged to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at the record-low level of near zero, while continuing its asset purchase program at least at the current pace of 120 billion U.S. dollars per month until "substantial further progress" has been made on employment and inflation.

Real U.S. GDP Up 6.6% in 2Q According to ‘Second’ Estimate - - Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 6.6% in the second quarter of 2021, according to the “second” estimate released Thursday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 6.3%. The second GDP estimate is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 6.5%. The update reflects upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and exports that were partly offset by downward revisions to private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised down. The increase in real GDP in the second quarter reflected increases in personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by decreases in private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. The increase in PCE reflected increases in services (led by food services and accommodations) and goods (led by “other” nondurable goods, notably pharmaceutical products, as well as clothing and footwear). The increase in nonresidential fixed investment reflected increases in intellectual property products (led by research and development as well as software) and equipment (led by transportation equipment). The increase in exports reflected an increase in goods (led by nonautomotive capital goods) and services (led by travel). The decrease in private inventory investment was led by a decrease in retail trade inventories. The decrease in federal government spending primarily reflected a decrease in nondefense spending on intermediate goods and services. In the second quarter, nondefense services decreased as the processing and administration of Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loan applications by banks on behalf of the federal government declined. Current dollar GDP increased 13.2% at an annual rate, or $693.2 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $22.73 trillion. In the first quarter, GDP increased 10.9%, or $560.6 billion. More information on the source data that underlie the estimates is available in the Key Source Data and Assumptions file on BEA’s website. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 5.8% in the second quarter, an upward revision of 0.1 percentage point. The PCE price index increased 6.5%, an upward revision of 0.1 percentage point. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 6.1%, unrevised from the advance estimate. Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 1.6% in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 6.3% (revised) in the first quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 4% in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 6.3% in the first quarter. Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) increased $234.5 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $123.9 billion in the first quarter. Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $53.7 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $1.3 billion in the first quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased $169.8 billion, compared with an increase of $133.2 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits increased $11 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $10.6 billion. In the second quarter, receipts increased $31.3 billion, and payments increased $20.3 billion.

Q2 Real GDP Per Capita: 6.3% Versus the 6.6% Headline Real GDP - The Second Estimate for Q2 GDP came in at 6.6% (6.56% to two decimals), up from 6.3% (6.28% to two decimals) in Q1 2021. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 6.30% to two decimal points.Here is a chart of real GDP per capita growth since 1960. For this analysis, we've chained in today's dollar for the inflation adjustment. The per-capita calculation is based on quarterly aggregates of mid-month population estimates by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which date from 1959 (hence our 1960 starting date for this chart, even though quarterly GDP has is available since 1947). The population data is available in the FRED series POPTHM. The logarithmic vertical axis ensures that the highlighted contractions have the same relative scale.The chart includes an exponential regression through the data using the Excel GROWTH function to give us a sense of the historical trend. The regression illustrates the fact that the trend since the Great Recession has a visibly lower slope than the long-term trend. In fact, the current GDP per-capita is 8.9% below the pre-recession trend (2008).The real per-capita series gives us a better understanding of the depth and duration of GDP contractions. As we can see, since our 1960 starting point, the recession that began in December 2007 is associated with a deeper trough than previous contractions, which perhaps justifies its nickname as the Great Recession. The standard measure of GDP in the US is expressed as the compounded annual rate of change from one quarter to the next. The current real GDP is 6.6%. But with a per-capita adjustment, the data series is lower at 6.3%. The 10-year moving average illustrates that US economic growth has slowed dramatically since the last recession and dropped significantly at the start of the COVID-19 recession, only to bounce back soon after.

Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy --These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers.This data is as of August 22nd. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Blue) and 2021 (Red). The 7-day average is down 23.3% from the same day in 2019 (76.7% of 2019). (Dashed line) There was a slow increase from the bottom starting in May 2020 - and then TSA data picked up in 2021 - but the dashed line was moving sideways, and has moved down recently. The second graph shows the 7-day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. This data is updated through August 21, 2021. This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. For year-over-year comparisons by day, we compare to the same day of the week from the same week in the previous year." Dining picked up during the holidays, then slumped with the huge winter surge in cases. Dining was generally picking up, but has moved down recently - especially in Florida and Texas. The 7-day average for the US is down 10% compared to 2019. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through August 19th. Movie ticket sales were at $107 million last week, down about 43% from the median for the week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. With solid leisure travel, the Summer months had decent occupancy - but it is uncertain what will happen in the Fall with business travel - especially with the sharp increase in COVID pandemic cases and hospitalizations. This data is through August 14th. The occupancy rate is down 8.4% compared to the same week in 2019. This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. As of August 13th, gasoline supplied was down 3.0% compared to the same week in 2019. There have been four weeks so far this year when gasoline supplied was up compared to the same week in 2019. This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." This data is through August 14th for the United States and several selected cities.According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is at 105% of the January 2020 level. New York City is doing well by this metric, but subway usage in NYC is down sharply (next graph). Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage. This graph is from Todd W Schneider. This is weekly data since 2015. Most weeks are between 30 and 35 million entries, and currently there are over 12 million subway turnstile entries per week - and generally increasing.This data is through Friday, August 20th. Schneider has graphs for each borough, and links to all the data sources.

GDP at Risk? (update) – Menzie Chinn - An increasing amount of GDP is accounted for by counties with rising fatalities, a slight change from a couple weeks ago. Top: Share of GDP coming from counties with rising new cases (dark blue), deaths (light blue). Bottom: GDP in billions of 2012$, SAAR (blue). Sources: DB, Covid Impact Tracker , 19 August 2021, and IHS-MarkIt, release of 2 August 2021.I’ve placed stacked the two graphs so that one can get some idea of how the waves correlate with the pace of recovery. It’s hard to see a clear pattern, except in the first wave where the decline affected counties correlates with a very rapid recovery in economic activity as measured by monthly GDP as estimated by IHS-MarkIt.On 8/18, Goldman Sachs downgraded Q3 growth estimates from 9% to 5.5%, partly on delta variant concerns. Yesterday, Wells Fargo observed:The Delta variant in the United States has cast a cloud over the outlook. New daily cases continue to move higher and are at their highest level since February. Hospitalizations are on the rise, too, amid the more virulent strain, and this week brought reports that some states are nearing full capacity for intensive care beds. From an economic perspective, it remains to be seen how activity evolves during this latest outbreak, with the surge in cases beginning in late July. High-frequency measures on seated diners and the number of people through TSA checkpoints suggest service activity has plateaued but not materially deteriorated thus far (see chart). The sideways move in activity, in conjunction with weaker-than-expected retail sales in July, suggests some downside risk to our personal spending estimates for the third quarter.So far, the implications are for modest reductions in predicted growth rates, rather than large.As of August 19th, the annual growth rate implied by the (13 week average of the) Weekly Economic Index (WEI) is 9.53% for a hypothetical quarter ending August 14th. That’s still strong growth, nationwide.

Messages from the (Bond) Market - Menzie Chinn - Today, the CEA published a blogpost on how the administration’s infrastructure and Build Back Better plans won’t be inflationary. I think it’s of interest to see how the market (which will undoubtedly turn out to be wrong) thinks inflation and output will evolve.For medium term inflation expectations, I look to the five year inflation breakeven, and the expected inflation over the next five years as inferred using the breakeven and additional survey and market information.Figure 1: Five year inflation breakeven calculated as five year Treasury yield minus five year TIPS yield (blue), five year breakeven adjusted by inflation risk premium and liquidity premium per DKW (red), all in %. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray (from beginning of peak month to end of trough month). Source: FRB via FRED, Treasury, KWW following D’amico, Kim and Wei (DKW) accessed 8/5, NBER and author’s calculations.The implied inflation rate from the simple breakeven calculation is the same as it was around 6/9/2021, for the last two and a half months.In part, the moderation in expected inflation over the past five months is due to an anticipated deceleration in growth, as implied by the term spread.Figure 2: Ten year three month Treasury spread (blue), and ten year TIPS yield (red), both in %. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: Treasury, NBER, and author’s calculations. Admittedly, the link between the term spread and growth (as well as recessions) is loose, but the implication of marked down anticipated growth is buttressed by the decline in the real rate as measured by the TIPS 10 year yield.To me, this is suggestive of a continuing decline in inflation anxieties, and rising worries over the pace of recovery (see also this post).

The Congressional Budget Office Is Forecasting U.S. Debt Levels Not Seen Since World War II as GDP Forecasts Dim --Pam Martens - The most recent Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecast is projecting government debt levels in the U.S. not seen since World War II. According to a CBO report released on July 21:“After all the government’s borrowing needs are accounted for, debt held by the public rises from $21.0 trillion at the end of 2020 to $35.8 trillion at the end of 2031 in CBO’s baseline projections. As a percentage of GDP, debt at the end of 2031 stands at 106 percent, about 6 percentage points higher than it was at the end of 2020 and nearly two and a half times its average over the past 50 years.”As for the federal budget deficit as a share of GDP, things aren’t looking good there either according to CBO forecasts:“CBO projects a federal budget deficit of $3.0 trillion in 2021 as the economic disruption caused by the 2020–2021 coronavirus pandemic and the legislation enacted in response continue to boost the deficit (which was large by historical standards even before the pandemic). At 13.4 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), the deficit in 2021 would be the second largest since 1945, exceeded only by the 14.9 percent shortfall recorded last year.” Growing levels of national debt and deficits are never good news but they are particularly troublesome when the rosy forecasts for GDP growth this year have started to dim as a result of the economic hit coming from the upsurge in the Delta variant of COVID-19.On August 19, Goldman Sachs reduced their GDP estimate for the third quarter from a robust 9 percent to 5.5 percent. Goldman Sachs cited Delta’s impact on reduced consumer spending on “dining, travel, and some other services” as the reason for their sharp cut of 3.5 points from their earlier GDP forecast. The highly respected Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast for the third quarter has also been trending lower, from 6.3 percent on August 2 to 6.1 percent currently. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast will be updated again tomorrow, a few hours after durable goods orders for July are released at 8:30 a.m. The growth trend in the U.S. has had a spate of bad news recently. The Census Bureaureported on August 17 that retail sales had dipped 1.1 percent in July versus the prior month, the second month-over-month decline in the past three months.At the same time the U.S. is witnessing a downward trend in economic activity, there is a stark, rising trend in corporate debt levels in the U.S. According to Federal Reserve data, as of January 1, 2021 corporate debt (including debt securities and loans) stood at an historic high of $11.169 trillion. (This excludes debt held by financial institutions.)

Top House Republican signals GOP lawmakers won't support lifting the debt ceiling and instead force Democrats to renew US's ability to pay the bills --A top House Republican indicated that GOP lawmakers were unlikely to support lifting the debt ceiling and instead put the onus on Democrats to do so, raising the risk of a perilous showdown that could engulf both chambers of Congress this fall.Rep. Kevin Brady, the ranking Republican on the House Ways and Means Committee, said in a Monday interview that Republicans had grown frustrated with Democrats circumventing them on a $1.9 trillion stimulus law using a legislative tactic known as reconciliation. They're also poised to muscle through a multitrillion social-spending plan on their own."Considering they haven't had a single conversation about spending, stimulus, or the debt with us to date, I think they, by their behavior, have taken responsibility on passing this by themselves," Brady told Insider in a Monday-night interview.The Texas Republican added: "Unless they have a conversation with Republicans, certainly there won't be Republican support in the House. Take it or leave it, no conversations, no working together - it's their responsibility, unfortunately."Brady's comments serve as a barometer of the GOP position in the lower chamber on the debt ceiling, given his influence as an architect of the 2017 Republican tax law. House Republicans may end up taking the lead of the Senate GOP under Mitch McConnell, as most Republicans in the upper chamber are banding together to oppose a debt-ceiling increase.Some Senate Republicans are demanding spending cuts in exchange for their support, even though the GOP supported raising the debt ceiling multiple times under the Trump administration. The previous debt-limit suspension expired on July 30, prompting the Treasury Department to take "extraordinary measures" to help pay off the government's bills, Secretary Janet Yellen said. Increasing the debt ceiling does not add to federal spending - it authorizes the US government to pay its current debt load.The Congressional Budget Office forecast the Treasury could keep the government afloat until October or November, though Yellen said the pandemic was making it more difficult to accurately project when the department would exhaust its emergency powers.House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy's office didn't respond to a request for comment. In July, McCarthy signed on to a letter from Republicans on the House budget panel calling for "spending restraints" as part of any agreement to lift or suspend the debt ceiling.Other senior Republicans wouldn't go as far as Brady. Rep. Jason Smith of Missouri, the ranking Republican on the House Budget Committee, said Democratic congressional leaders hadn't responded to the letter they sent."We've heard crickets," Smith told Insider on Tuesday. "The Democrats have failed in leadership. They're not even negotiating or communicating, so apparently they don't care about the debt ceiling."

US debt ceiling drama piles on yet more unwanted pressure - The US debt ceiling drama is back with its usual political farce. Unfortunately, it matters. ‘Extraordinary measures’ are keeping the show on the road for now. But any delay to a budget deal runs the risk of debt downgrades, Fed taper delays and even the possibility of a government shutdown. Given Covid, it's the last thing anyone needs or wants right now. The debt ceiling is just one more thing that sets the US apart from most other countries. Ordinarily when a country outlines its spending plans and they are approved the government can simply borrow what it needs. In the US there is sometimes an extra hoop to go through whereby if the level of accumulated debt were to go over a set level – the debt ceiling – Congress needs to approve this by raising the debt ceiling level to a new higher figure.Since its inception in 1917, the debt ceiling has been raised well over 100 times, mostly without incident. However, recent years have seen more fractious politics on Capitol Hill. One implication is the debt ceiling has increasingly been used as a tool to obstruct legislation and score political points while often disguised as an effort to instil fiscal discipline. Such impasses have previously resulted in a debt downgrade, government shutdowns and major market volatility and we should be alive to the risks of this happening again this year.In a deal struck back in 2019 the debt ceiling was raised to $22tn before being suspended until July 31st 2021 during which time it was adjusted to the current level of debt – which is now $28.5tn. Given the expiration of this deadline and no new deal in sight, the US Treasury has the tricky task of preventing an increase in debt at a time when government expenditure is running well ahead of tax revenues.To pull this off they are using skilful accounting. The Treasury has published a list of 'extraordinary measures' that will 'prevent the United States from defaulting on its obligations as Congress deliberates on increasing the debt limit'. The Treasury's "Extraordinary Measures"

1. suspending sales of State and Local Government Series Treasury securities
2. redeeming existing, and suspending new, investments of the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund and the Postal Service Retiree Health Benefits Fund
3. suspending reinvestment of the Government Securities Investment Fund
4. suspending reinvestment of the Exchange Stabilization Fund.

However, these measures can only prevent a breach of the debt ceiling for so long. Most estimates suggest it gives the government a few months of breathing space, perhaps to October or maybe November. If the ceiling hasn’t been raised (or suspended again) by that point we will either need to see draconian cuts to government spending – the government shutdown route – or the country defaults on its interest payments.Unfortunately, these deliberations are going nowhere fast. 60 Senate votes are needed to raise the debt limit, but the Senate is split 50-50 down the middle. Democrats could tough it out and hope that fears over a potential debt default and assumed resulting market turbulence could bring the two sides together for the good of the nation. This appears highly unlikely given the polarised nature of politics right now.

House Democrats return to advance Biden's agenda in face of crises -House Democrats are interrupting their summer recess and returning to Washington on Monday to advance President Biden’s ambitious domestic agenda as his administration struggles to contain a foreign policy crisis in Afghanistan and the raging COVID-19 pandemic. At this politically perilous moment, Biden and his Democratic allies on Capitol Hill can’t afford to have two key components of the president’s Build Back Better agenda — a game-changing $3.5 trillion social benefits package and $1.2 trillion infrastructure measure — stall out and lose momentum. But that’s precisely what’s at risk of happening this week as tempers flare and progressives and Democratic centrists publicly battle over the tactics for moving the pair of spending packages forward. Nine moderates are threatening to tank the $3.5 trillion plan unless party leaders first hold a vote on the Senate-passed infrastructure legislation and send it to Biden’s desk. Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is refusing to budge and sticking with her strategy, one backed by Biden and top progressives, to approve a budget resolution that will pave the way for Democrats this fall to pass the $3.5 trillion package without a single Republican vote. In doing so, Pelosi is effectively daring the so-called Moderate Nine to be blamed for killing the Biden agenda that rank-and-file Democrats, especially vulnerable centrists, will need to run on to keep their jobs in the increasingly difficult 2022 midterm elections. At the moment, not even some of her close allies know how Pelosi will steer her 220-member caucus through these rough waters. The process will kick off Monday night. Under Pelosi’s strategy, Democrats will vote to pass a combined rule that would advance three party priorities: the budget resolution to set up the Democratic-only package to expand the social safety net, the bipartisan infrastructure measure and a voting rights bill named for the late Rep. John Lewis (D-Ga.). House Democrats, not wanting to block the voting legislation, are expected to stick together on that procedural roll call. But Tuesday is when the wheels could come off. Earlier this month, the nine moderates announced they wanted an immediate vote on the Senate-passed bipartisan infrastructure bill — rather than potentially waiting months until the party’s social benefits package is completed, as Pelosi has long indicated. On Friday, they reiterated that their position hadn’t changed. Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.), co-chair of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus and leader of the nine moderates, said that “the House can’t afford to wait months, or do anything to risk passing the historic infrastructure package.” Gottheimer noted that he does eventually plan to support the budget resolution but stressed that the House should first “vote immediately” on the bipartisan bill to “get people to work and shovels in the ground.” While nine is a small faction of the Democratic caucus, House Democrats can only afford three defections with their narrow majority in the chamber and still pass legislation on their own without support from Republicans. Moderate Democrats in the Senate, who are similarly eager to tout the bipartisan infrastructure bill, got the cover of a vote first on that measure before moving to start the process for $3.5 trillion in spending on party priorities like childcare, free community college, paid family leave and combating climate change. But with Pelosi bowing to demands from progressives to hold the bipartisan infrastructure bill as leverage to ensure their priorities in the larger package aren’t scaled back too much, moderate Democrats in the House aren’t getting quite the same cover as their Senate counterparts had.

Ahead of crucial meeting, Pelosi says budget reconciliation must pass first -- Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) on Monday reiterated her support for prompt House passage of Senate Democrats' budget resolution, ahead of a crucial meeting where her caucus will discuss the measure and a separate bipartisan infrastructure bill. "We must not squander our Congressional Democratic Majorities and jeopardize the once-in-a-generation opportunity to create historic change to meet the needs of working families," Pelosi wrote in a letter to her Democratic colleagues. The House is returning to Washington on Monday to take up the budget resolution, which the Senate passed earlier this month. House approval of the resolution would pave the way for Democrats to pass a forthcoming $3.5 trillion Democrat-only bill, through the budget-reconciliation process, which is expected to include spending in areas such as education, child care, health care, housing and climate. Pelosi and congressional progressives are seeking quick passage of the budget resolution and want to wait to pass the separate Senate-passed $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill until after the upper chamber passes the Democrat-only spending bill. But a group of nine moderate House Democrats is threatening to vote against the budget resolution unless the House votes first on the infrastructure bill. Democrats have a slim majority in the House, so nearly all House members in the party need to vote for the budget resolution for it to pass. Pelosi said in her letter that there will be a caucus meeting Monday evening where Democratic lawmakers will discuss the path forward on both bills. "The success of each bill contributes to the success of the other," she said. Pelosi also argued that the House needs to pass the budget resolution and subsequent reconciliation bill prior to passing the infrastructure bill, saying that doing so would ensure that Democrats are addressing the concerns of voters. It's essential that House Democrats "keep the faith with those who elected a Democratic Majority by addressing their needs, especially women, in a transformative way," she wrote.

Manchin warns House Democrats over bipartisan infrastructure bill delay -- Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) is leaning on House Democrats to speed up consideration of the roughly $1 trillion Senate-passed bipartisan infrastructure bill, endorsing an effort by a band of moderates who are in a standoff with Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). Manchin, in a statement, noted the Senate passed the bipartisan bill before Democrats approved a budget blueprint that allows them to try to pass a $3.5 trillion spending plan later this year without GOP support. "The House should put politics aside and do the same. With so much uncertainty in the world today, one thing is certain, we must unite and pass a critical priority of the American people—improving our nation's infrastructure," Manchin said in a statement. "It would send a terrible message to the American people if this bipartisan bill is held hostage. I urge my colleagues in the House to move swiftly to get this once in a generation legislation to the president's desk for his signature," he added. Manchin's statement comes as House Democrats are returning to Washington on Monday with Democratic leadership wanting to approve the budget resolution and leave town again as soon as Tuesday. Pelosi has vowed that she won't bring the Senate's bipartisan infrastructure deal up for a vote until later this year when the House takes up the $3.5 trillion spending plan. But she's in a standoff with a band of nine moderate Democratic lawmakers who want an immediate vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill. Progressives and members of leadership have warned that the bipartisan bill doesn't have the votes to pass unless it's directly tied on the floor to the $3.5 trillion spending package. Pelosi is expected to bring the budget resolution, which paves the way for the Democratic-only package, up on the floor on Tuesday. Given unified GOP opposition, she can only afford to lose three of her members. Even if Pelosi finds a way to resolve the stalemate with the moderates and approves the budget resolution this week, Democrats still face big headaches in crafting a $3.5 trillion package. Centrist Democrats in the House have raised alarm over the price tag. And in the Senate, Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) needs total unity to pass the spending package as soon as next month. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) publicly warned late last month that she couldn't support a $3.5 trillion cost for the Democratic-only spending package, signaling that she is going to try to pare down the bill during weeks of behind-the-scenes haggling before the Senate returns next month. John LaBombard, Sinema's spokesman, reiterated on Monday that "she will not support a budget reconciliation bill that costs $3.5 trillion" and urged for the Senate's $1 trillion bipartisan bill to be "considered on its own merits."

Democrat Agenda Stalls as Nancy Pelosi 'Underestimates' Moderate Democrats - House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-CA) hardline tactics and failure to strike a deal with moderate Democrats led to a stalled vote on the party’s infrastructure agenda Monday evening.House moderate Democrats have moved to have an immediate vote on the so-called bipartisan infrastructure bill, otherwise known as the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. The moderate Democrats hope to use the passage of the $1.2 trillion bill to reassure their voters ahead of the contentious 2022 midterm elections. Moderates hope to secure a promise from Pelosi on the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act before voting to advance the $3.5 trillion budget; the House planned to vote on the rule that would allow for consideration of the budget resolution Monday, but the moderate Democrats’ resistance led to Pelosi to delay the vote. Reps. Carolyn Bourdeaux (D-GA), Ed Case (D-HI), Jim Costa (D-CA), Henry Cuellar (D-TX), Jared Golden (D-ME), Vicente Gonzalez (D-TX), Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ), Kurt Schrader (D-OR), Filemon Vela (D-FL), have served as part of the group leading the resistance against Pelosi. Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D-FL) joined the group of moderates revolting against Pelosi. Politico wrote Tuesday that Pelosi can only afford to lose three votes to pass the rule on the budget resolution and that she largely underestimated moderate Democrats: Right now, there is no deal. And while it appears that some moderates are open to this possible accord, others want to hold the line for better terms. Heather and Sarah report that as many as five moderates are still opposed to the tentative detente — and Pelosi can lose only three.One thing is for sure: House Democratic leaders grossly underestimated their centrists. As Roll Call’s Lindsey McPherson tweeted Monday night, “these talks could’ve happened earlier, but leadership clearly thought they’d get moderates to fold to their pressure campaign. But the moderates held firm and have a lot of leverage now.” “Who’s laughing now? Gottheimer went from “amateur hour” to man of the hour. He was at the center of attention trying to strike a deal all night. And he planted a flag in the ground for the fights to come as Democrats haggle over the details of the reconciliation package,” Politico noted.

House advances $3.5T budget, ending stalemate between Pelosi and centrists - The House passed a $3.5 trillion budget framework Tuesday, capping off several days of furious negotiating and ending a weekslong stalemate between Speaker Nancy Pelosi and a band of Democratic centrists who threatened to upend President Joe Biden’s domestic agenda.The House vote clears the way for Democrats to pursue a massive social spending package that could pass both chambers without Republican support and sets a Sept. 27 House vote on the Senate-passed infrastructure bill. All Democrats, including the roughly dozen moderates who threatened to tank the party-line spending plan, voted in favor — a show of party unity that leadership strove for after tensions between the caucus’ dueling factions dominated the public conversation for weeks.The agreement between Pelosi and the group of centrists led by Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) followed several hours of frenetic negotiating Monday night that carried over into Tuesday. Pelosi outlined the details of the compromise in a statement released during the vote, even going so far as to thank Gottheimer and his group "for their enthusiastic support for the infrastructure bill."“I am committing to pass the bipartisan infrastructure bill by September 27. I do so with a commitment to rally House Democratic support for its passage," Pelosi said. “We must keep the 51-vote privilege by passing the budget and work with House and Senate Democrats to reach agreement in order for the House to vote on a Build Back Better Act that will pass the Senate."The compromise is a significant win for Gottheimer, Reps. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas) and Stephanie Murphy (D-Fla.) and the other centrists, who for weeks have been telegraphing to leadership that they would vote against the budget resolution unless Pelosi brought the Senate-passed infrastructure bill up for an immediate vote."This is a big win for America and will help get people to work and shovels in the ground," the moderate Democrats said in a statement. "We have established a path forward that ensures we can pass this once-in-a-century infrastructure investment by September 27th, allowing us to create millions of jobs and bring our nation into the 21st century."Pelosi dug in, insisting she would not bring the infrastructure bill up for a vote until the Senate passed the massive social spending bill Democrats are hoping to muscle through in the coming weeks. Having both chambers pass the budget resolution was key to unlocking the filibuster-proof process in the Senate, which is essential to pass the massive spending plan with just 51 votes.While the Gottheimer group did not get their initial demand, they have a public agreement with leadership that says the House will consider the $550 billion infrastructure deal by a specific date — Sept. 27 — effectively guaranteeing it will become law by next month if House Democrats stay united to pass the bill.In addition, Gottheimer’s group negotiated what they say are meaningful guarantees from leadership about the potential size and scope of the $3.5 trillion social spending plan. Moderates in both chambers, including influential Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.), have signaled they are not supportive of such a large price tag.The moderates sought a commitment from Pelosi and her leadership team that they would take part in extensive negotiations with Senate moderates, particularly Manchin and Sinema, before putting the party-line bill on the floor. Otherwise, they worried a House-passed bill could simply go ignored across the Capitol.It remains to be seen how progressives, the other influential faction of Pelosi’s caucus, will react to the deal — which cuts against the promise she made to them to ensure the social spending plan would move through Congress first.

House Passes $3.5 Trillion Budget Blueprint, Sets Deadline for Infrastructure Bill – WSJ —The House narrowly passed a measure approving a $3.5 trillion budget blueprint and locking in a late September vote on a roughly $1 trillion infrastructure bill, ending a standoff between centrist Democrats and party leaders over their legislative agenda.Tuesday’s passage of the $3.5 trillion budget framework in a 220-212 vote unlocks a process, known as reconciliation, allowing Democrats to pass a broad package of healthcare, education and climate provisions in the Senate without GOP support, so long as all 50 senators in the Democratic caucus back it. The Senate passed the same budget blueprintearlier this month, and lawmakers are already working on drafting detailed legislation.The measure passed after concessions from both House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) and a group of 10 centrist Democrats. The centrists had balked at approving the budget framework and urged the House to vote immediately on the infrastructure bill, which has already passed the Senate.Although the centrists didn’t secure an immediate vote on the infrastructure measure, they did pin down a Sept. 27 deadline for it, which means the House could vote on that bill weeks before the budget package is ready. Mrs. Pelosi has said previously that the House wouldn’t vote on infrastructure until the healthcare and education package has passed the Senate.“This agreement does what we set out to do: secure a stand-alone vote for the bipartisan infrastructure bill, send it to the president’s desk and then separately consider the reconciliation package,” the group of centrists said Tuesday.The agreement marked a shift in party leaders’ stated strategy for sequencing the infrastructure legislation and the budget package, which could now come up for votes weeks apart in the House. That could diminish liberals’ leverage in the coming negotiations unless lawmakers can complete the budget package before the infrastructure deadline.At the same time, Mrs. Pelosi avoided a high-profile defeat on the House floor that could have snarled President Biden’s agenda. Democratic leaders can afford no more than three defections on bills opposed by all Republicans, and they lost no votes Tuesday. “I am committing to pass the bipartisan infrastructure bill by Sept. 27. I do so with a commitment to rally House Democratic support for its passage,” Mrs. Pelosi said in a statement Tuesday afternoon. A spokesman for the Speaker said the Sept. 27 deadline didn’t indicate a change in her position because she “has long wanted both bills enacted in September.”

US House vote to move forward on budget framework heralds major cuts in $3.5 trillion price tag - After days of internal wrangling and delays, House Democrats on Tuesday narrowly passed a procedural rule supporting the Biden administration’s $3.5 trillion budget resolution, making it possible for an eventual budget bill to pass by majority vote in the evenly-divided Senate. This would be done under the special budget reconciliation procedure, which bars the use of a filibuster and thereby averts the need to obtain 60 votes for passage of legislation in the upper chamber. The measure, passed on a party-line vote of 220-212, with all Democrats voting in favor and all Republicans voting against, also advanced a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill passed earlier this month by the Senate. The infrastructure bill, allocating some $550 billion of new money over five years to at least minimally address the nation’s crumbling brick and mortar infrastructure—bridges, roads, rail, broadband, the power grid and water systems—is broadly supported in the ruling class. Among the bill’s official supporters are the US Chamber of Commerce, the Business Roundtable, the National Association of Manufacturers and the AFL-CIO. The 19 Senate Republicans who voted for the bill included Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Some attention to the country’s collapsing infrastructure is considered critical to reversing the global economic decline of American capitalism and shoring up the home front in preparation for economic warfare and potential military conflict with US imperialism’s rivals, chiefly nuclear-armed China and Russia. The $3.5 trillion “human infrastructure” budget plan, on the other hand, has far less support within the corporate-financial oligarchy, particularly Biden’s call for a modest increase in corporate taxes and the personal rate for the top bracket. The budget resolution calls for an expansion of Medicare and Medicaid, subsidized child care and elder care, paid family and sick leave, tuition-free community college, an extension of child and earned income tax credits, modest measures to combat climate change and liberalized granting of green cards to immigrants, along with more money to militarize the border with Mexico. The Democrats have elevated Bernie Sanders, the darling of the Democratic Socialists of America and other pseudo-left appendages of the Democratic Party, to usher the bill through the Senate. Sanders has absurdly compared the plan to the New Deal of the 1930s. In fact, the $350 billion per year over 10 years proposed in the budget outline is less than half of Biden’s 2022 Pentagon budget, less than the $400 billion the 15 richest Americans added to their collective wealth in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, and a fraction of the $1.44 trillion per year the Federal Reserve pumps into the financial markets through its monthly purchases of $120 billion in corporate bonds and other financial assets.

Democratic Centrists and Progressives Wrestle Over Biden Agenda —The intraparty fracas over passing a $3.5 trillion budget outline has left Democrats girding for an even more difficult set of negotiations this fall as progressives and centrists begin sparring on the details of their broad healthcare, education and climate plan.The dayslong standoff between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) and a group of centrist Democrats centered on the timing of advancing the budget outline and a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure plan, with the moderate lawmakers unsuccessfully demanding a vote on the public-works plan before the $3.5 trillion outline. After striking a deal, House Democrats approved the budget resolution on Tuesday, and party leaders said they would bring up the infrastructure bill by Sept. 27 while also working to quickly finalize the second package.Not only will Democrats face the same dispute over sequencing in the fall, as progressives still push for the $3.5 trillion bill to come up before infrastructure, but they will also have to come to terms on the scores of policy questions they hope to tackle in the bill—a process that could ultimately take months. Democrats will rely on narrow majorities in the House and Senate to try to muscle into law a package that includes an expansion of Medicare as well as universal prekindergarten and antipoverty measures—along with tax increases on companies and high-income households.“The challenge of the bill this fall is not to have this kind of cliffhanger, but to work it out and accommodate people,” said Rep. David Price (D., N.C.). “It’s tough given our narrow majority and given the range of views. It’s not going to be easy to figure out what the sweet spot is, but if we’re going to succeed that’s what we gotta do.”The tug of war over the timing of voting on the infrastructure and budget plans reflects mutual skepticism between the moderates and progressives of the Democratic Party.Moderate Democrats in the House and Senate have already raised concerns about the size of the $3.5 trillion proposal and its tax increases, seeking to pass the public-works bill as quickly as possible. Progressives, in turn, have said they would oppose the infrastructure bill—a priority for moderates—until the healthcare, education, and climate measures pass the Senate, aiming to create pressure for the moderates to support the $3.5 trillion plan. The centrists are now pushing to decouple the two bills and conduct the negotiations over the $3.5 trillion bill separately from the infrastructure bill. Several moderates said Mrs. Pelosi’s commitment to bringing up the infrastructure bill by Sept. 27 accomplishes that.“I’m just glad that we landed in the right place for us to be able to move forward on the infrastructure bill, de-linked from the reconciliation bill, and that we will be able to have a level playing field within the Democratic caucus as we have discussions around what should go in the reconciliation bill,” said Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D., Fla.), one of the House Democrats who pushed for an infrastructure vote before approving the budget outline.Ms. Murphy said President Biden called her Sunday night to encourage her to support his agenda.But progressive Democrats are maintaining that they will oppose the infrastructure bill if the $3.5 trillion legislation hasn’t yet been approved. Rep. Ilhan Omar (D., Minn.), a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, said that centrists fell short of their demand for a vote on infrastructure before the now-passed budget outline for the $3.5 trillion bill, leaving progressives at an advantage in future talks.“I didn’t understand what they were expecting to achieve. And the fact that they’re going to end up supporting what they said they wouldn’t without actually getting what they wanted, I think sets them up for failure in negotiations in the future,” Ms. Omar said.

Progressives Vow to 'Hold the Line' on Democrats' Bold Agenda -- In the wake of Tuesday's House vote on a pair of packages that would invest in U.S. physical and human infrastructure, progressives within and beyond Congress reiterated their commitment to advancing Democrats' bold agenda, despite sabotage threats from right-wingers in both major parties.The House's party-line vote passing the Senate-approved $3.5 trillion budget blueprint—which allows Democrats to begin crafting legislation to implement President Joe Biden's "Build Back Better" campaign promises and other progressive priorities—followed intense negotiations with a handful of lawmakers, led by Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.), who threatened to hold up the process unless the lower chamber first voted on a bipartisan infrastructure bill.Though House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) ultimately appeased the "Gottheimer gang" and secured unanimous Democratic support for the Tuesday resolution by including a September 27 deadline for considering the Senate-approved bipartisan bill, progressives continue to make clear that they won't back that measure without first passing the $3.5 trillion package."We made it clear then and we're making it clear now," tweeted Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.), sharing a post-vote statement from Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus (CPC)."We won't support the infrastructure package without first passing a reconciliation bill that delivers lower prescription drug prices, comprehensive climate action, universal pre-K, and expanded Medicare," Bush said.Other top priorities for the $3.5 trillion package—for which Democrats are using the budget reconciliation process to avoid a Senate GOP filibuster—include investments in affordable housing, child care, paid leave, and a roadmap to citizenship for undocumented immigrants.Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) also took to Twitter after the House vote to echo the CPC statement that "our position remains unchanged" on passing the reconciliation bill first.Ocasio-Cortez's declaration was welcomed by the youth-led Sunrise Movement, which said on social media that "we refuse to let conservatives stop us from getting what people need and deserve.""Biden and Democratic congressional leaders can't be distracted by the antics of conservatives threatening to derail our shot of passing popular and historic investments towards stopping the climate crisis and creating millions of good jobs," said Sunrise Movement advocacy director Lauren Maunus in a statement late Tuesday."Democrats: hold the line and pass the boldest budget reconciliation package possible before voting on the watered-down Exxon plan," she said, referencing the fossil fuel giant's reported lobbying over Biden's infrastructure proposals.Maunus added that while the House vote advancing both packages "is another step in the fight to stop the climate crisis, our movement won't stop until we pass a bold reconciliation package that jumpstarts the decade of the Green New Deal." "Let's be clear: This $3.5 trillion budget resolution is the compromise. If Democrats don't pass a bold progressive agenda that fully funds the Civilian Climate Corps and investments in renewable energy, public housing, transit, and schools, we risk disillusioning the Democratic base in 2022 and 2024 and further condemning our generation to an unstable future," she warned. "We are watching and won't forget this moment."

Bernie Sanders shuts down moderates' complaints that $3.5 trillion social spending plan needs cuts: 'I already negotiated' - Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont has a fresh message for Democrats: He's digging in. In an interview with Politico published Thursday, the Vermont independent said he wasn't interested in cutting the size of a $3.5 trillion spending plan Democrats are starting to assemble. Some moderates like Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona already say they're opposed to the package's sizable price tag. "I've already negotiated," he said. "The truth is we need more. The needs are there. This is, in my view, the minimum of what we should be spending." Sanders initially pushed a $6 trillion budget plan in June. But he struck a deal with centrists such as Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia on a $3.5 trillion budget blueprint, which contained the bulk of President Joe Biden's jobs and families plans from the spring. Sanders' remarks could kick off another round of negotiations between progressives seeking to curb inequality and expand the government's role in the economy and moderates seeking to restrain those ambitions with a smaller plan. The party-line spending plan would expand Medicare to cover dental, vision, and hearing, set up a national program for paid family and medical leave. It would also include tuition-free community college, a child allowance, subsidies for childcare and initiatives to address the climate crisis among other provisions. The House advanced the plan on Tuesday after a 48-hour showdown between Speaker Nancy Pelosi and a bloc of moderate lawmakers seeking an immediate vote on a separate bipartisan infrastructure bill. Democrats aim to fully finance the plan with a range of tax hikes on the wealthiest Americans and large firms, partially rolling back President Donald Trump's 2017 tax law. But the budget plan faces an uphill battle to passage in the 50-50 Senate. Democrats are using a fast-track process known as reconciliation to secure its eventual passage with only a simple majority vote and over likely unanimous GOP opposition. But the procedure requires all 50 Senate Democrats to stay united for it to garner a tiebreaking vote from Vice President Kamala Harris. Sinema said she opposes the plan's cost. "I do not support a bill that costs $3.5 trillion — and in the coming months, I will work in good faith to develop this legislation with my colleagues and the administration to strengthen Arizona's economy and help Arizona's everyday families get ahead," she said in a statement last month. Another key moderate, Sen. Joe Manchin, also has repeatedly expressed unease with the price tag of the plan.

Keeping it together: If Democrats can’t manage to win support for their $3.5 trillion package, they’ll have to settle for the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill - As the GOP has devolved into a circus with a clownish ex-president shouting in the spotlight, the Democratic Party is closer to a genuine big tent. But the tent’s seams are showing, as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Majority Leader Chuck Schumer valiantly try to hold it all together. The speaker managed a neat feat this week as she placated moderates who want to be able to say yes to a $1 trillion infrastructure bill without alienating progressives who are demanding passage of a $3.5 trillion package. Pelosi smartly got the massive budget framework through the House, with a promise to vote on the bipartisan infrastructure deal by the end of September.So far, so good. But in the coming weeks, something will almost certainly have to give, and that something is bound to be much of the $3.5 trillion behemoth.So be it. The House Problem Solvers caucus, like Senate moderates, are understandably worried about rising inflation and about their own reelections. So they had demanded a vote on the infrastructure bill first — which would have freed them up to oppose the everything-under-the-sun framework promising a path to permanent residency for immigrants, universal childcare, free community college, paid family leave, dental and vision and hearing benefits in Medicare, massive investments in green energy and a whole lot more. Pelosi said no to that, but gave into other procedural concessions that’ll increase the moderates’ leverage when push comes to shove.

'Unacceptable': US Treasury Says 89% of Rental Aid Still Not Disbursed -- As the White House prepares for a U.S. Supreme Court order that could invalidate the new federal eviction moratorium, data released Wednesday revealed that state and local governments have disbursed just 11% of the funds that Congress allocated to help pay off debts accrued by renters during the Covid-19 pandemic. According to the U.S. Treasury Department, which oversees the Emergency Rental Assistance Program, only $1.7 billion was distributed in July. The New York Times reported that last month's amount "was a modest increase from the prior month, bringing the total aid disbursed thus far to about $5.1 billion." That's a small fraction of the $46.5 billion that Congress appropriated for rental assistance in two coronavirus relief packages passed in the last year. "This is unacceptable," Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.)said in response to the new figures. "We fought to extend the eviction moratorium to give states a chance to distribute these funds, but time is of the essence." Just weeks ago, a group of progressive lawmakers led by Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) held overnight rallies outside the Capitol to pressure President Joe Biden to extend the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's nationwide eviction moratorium. While Biden let the previous CDC order lapse on July 31, sustained direct action pushed his administration to implement on August 3 a new, more limited 60-day ban on evictions to give state and local governments more time to distribute rent relief. Jones said Wednesday that "states... must immediately get these funds to renters with the urgency this crisis demands." The Times noted that the new data came as the Biden administration "mapped out policy contingencies if the Supreme Court strikes down the moratorium, which is the administration's principal safeguard for hundreds of thousands of low-income and working class tenants hit hardest by the pandemic." The White House anticipates a decision as soon as this week. According to the Times, Treasury Department and White House officials said during a Tuesday night conference call that while some progress has been made this month, states are delivering rental aid at such a slow pace that an eviction surge is likely even if the high court allows the new ban to continue until its scheduled October 2 expiration date.The newspaper added:On Wednesday, the Treasury Department rolled out a slate of incremental changes intended to pressure states to move more quickly. But administration officials continue to blame the program's struggles on local officials, many of whom are reluctant to take advantage of the program's new fast-track application process, which allows tenants to self-certify their financial information.In recent weeks, local officials have complained that moving too fast on aid applications could lead to errors, fraud, and audits; the White House has countered by telling them those risks are insignificant compared with a wave of evictions hitting tenants who did not get their aid quickly enough to keep a roof over their heads.Journalist Brian Goldstone argued that the unwillingness of local agencies to expedite the allocation of funds, including by giving money directly to renters, means that "they trust landlords—but not tenants—to tell the truth."

US military screening evacuees for COVID-19 at Kabul airport --The U.S. military has put in place several COVID-19 screening measures in the midst of the chaotic evacuation out of Afghanistan’s capital, Defense Department press secretary John Kirby said Monday. Medical personnel at Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul are conducting COVID-19 screening “for those who are feeble or symptomatic,” Kirby told reporters at the Pentagon. Depending on the guidelines at specific temporary safe haven locations, additional screenings and measures are taking place. All passengers entering the United States are tested upon arrival, “and then medical professionals make the proper decisions after that,” Kirby said. Kirby acknowledged that there are concerns the 5,800 U.S. soldiers on the ground in Kabul are at risk of contracting the coronavirus, but he did not have details on whether any have tested positive. “I don't know what positive results that may have come in for soldiers working at the airfield ... but obviously, their health and safety remains a top concern for all of us,” Kirby said. The crush of people attempting to flee Afghanistan at the Kabul airport has upped the chances the highly infectious virus could easily spread amongst those in the crowd and to U.S. aircrews ferrying people out of the city. And once on board, there is little room for people to distance from one another, with C-17 flights evacuating an average of 450 people per flight. U.S. Transportation Command head Gen. Stephen Lyons said there are some mitigation efforts being taken by service members on the ground to prevent the spread, with “the vast majority” vaccinated against the virus.

Biden emphasizes that Afghan refugees will be vetted before entering US -President Biden emphasized on Sunday that refugees who are being evacuated from Afghanistan will be thoroughly vetted before they are brought to the United States. Biden’s comments, which he made during a Sunday afternoon speech from the White House on the evacuation effort, came as some conservative lawmakers and commentators have tried to stoke nativist concerns about welcoming Afghan refugees into the U.S. “Planes taking off from Kabul are not flying directly to the United States. They’re landing at U.S. military bases and transit centers around the world,” Biden said. “At these sites where they are landing, we are conducting thorough … security screening for everyone who is not a U.S. citizen or a lawful permanent resident. Anyone arriving in the United States will have undergone a background check.” “Once screened and cleared, we will welcome these Afghans who helped us in the war effort over the last 20 years to their new home in the United States of America. Because that is who we are, that is what America is,” Biden continued. Biden outlined how Afghan Special Immigrant Visa applicants who assisted the U.S. military are being transported from Kabul to transit centers in Qatar, Germany, Kuwait and Spain so they can complete their paperwork and undergo background checks. The chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan and ensuing evacuation effort has illuminated a debate within the Republican Party about accepting refugees. While some Republican figures have supported accepting Afghans into the U.S., others on the right have stoked fears about potential security threats from Afghan refugees without any particular evidence. “The Biden regime owes us answers ASAP about how they will be vetting the refugee applicants from Afghanistan,” Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) tweeted last week. “We are dealing with a part of the world that is a hotbed of terrorism and need to be incredibly vigilant.”

Negotiating with Terrorists: CIA Director Meets Taliban Leader - CIA Director William Burns negotiated face-to-face Monday with Taliban leader and co-founder Abdul Ghani Baradar as thousands of desperate Americans remain stranded in Afghanistan.“The CIA declined to comment on the Taliban meeting, but the discussions likely involved an impending Aug. 31 deadline for the U.S. military to conclude its airlift of U.S. citizens and Afghan allies,” the Washington Post reported, “[a]ccording to U.S. officials familiar with the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomacy.”The meeting comes as the Taliban warned the Biden administration it would not allow U.S. troops to stay in Afghanistan after the August 31 deadline, just as reports surfaced the president would seek permission to extract the thousands of people remaining in the failed state.When State Department spokesman Ned Price was asked Monday about why America had not begun negotiating with Baradar over the deadline, given the impeding hostage crisis, he said “discussions” with the Taliban have been about practicalities.“Our discussions with the Taliban have been operational, tactical,” Price explained. “They have been focused largely on our near-term operations and near-term goals… what is going on at the airport compound… That is what we’re focused on at the moment.”Monday evening more challenging news hit the Biden and Harris administration. House Intelligence Committee Chair Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) admitted after receiving an intelligence briefing that it is “very unlikely” extractions will be concluded before the August 31 deadline:I think it’s possible, but I think it’s very unlikely. Given the number of Americans who still need to be evacuated, the number of SIVs, the number of others who are members of the Afghan press, civil society leaders, women leaders. It’s hard for me to imagine all of that can be accomplished between now and the end of the month. Schiff also noted U.S. intelligence agencies warned about the impeding collapse of the country, becoming “increasingly pessimistic” about the country’s stability over the past six months: The intelligence agencies assessments of the Afghan government’s ability to maintain itself became increasingly pessimistic. Over the course of the last six months. And there were any number of warnings that the Taliban might take over, and some that included a potential of a very rapid, the Afghan government enforces.

America's $800 Million Kabul Embassy To Be Abandoned - No Troops Will Guard It -- The initial Biden plan for the complete US troop draw down from Afghanistan was to authorize a security force of some 600 Marines to guard the massive US embassy compound in Kabul. This was announced last Spring - of course long before the chaotic botched evacuation events of this month, which has seen all diplomats and military retreat to the confines of Hamid Karzai international airport.Plans have drastically changed as on Wednesday during a Pentagon press briefing a military spokesman confirmed that the embassy will be completely abandoned. "After the US military leaves Kabul on Aug. 31, no Americans will guard the $800 million dollar US embassy in Kabul," Fox's Pentagon corresponded Lucas Tomlinson reports.As Forbes has recently reviewed, US taxpayers have sunk a whopping $1.5 billion to erect and maintain it soon after the post 9/11 American invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, though most estimates commonly put it at $800 million in value (minus maintenance, upkeep, and security costs).The publication recently went through 10 U.S. investments in Afghanistan that didn't pan out (a bit of an understatement):U.S. Embassy: $1.5 billion for the U.S. Embassy (security, construction and maintenance) plus $157 million for operations since 2001. Embassy officials lowered the American flag this week as the embassy was totally evacuated.

Notes on the ‘Loss’ of Afghanistan - The ‘loss’ of Afghanistan to the Taliban — if you can lose a nation you never controlled in the first place — has stolen the news cycle as pro-war Pentagon-influenced propagandists made sure to excoriate President Biden for his “failure.” Lurking beneath this story, though, are a number of other, much more important stories involving this debacle and its end. These are a few of them.

• First, the U.S. military command, all the way up to President Biden, appeared to have had no idea Afghanistan would collapse this quickly. None. Courtesy of Matt Taibbi and a public post at his Substack site, we find this: Secretary of State Blinken (July 7th): “We are not withdrawing, we are staying, the embassy is staying, our programs are staying … If there is a significant deterioration in security … I don’t think it’s going to be something that happens from a Friday to a Monday.”And Joe Biden had this to say to Jake Tapper on July 8: There is going to be no circumstance where you see people lifted off the roof of an embassy… The likelihood that you’re going to see the Taliban overrunning everything and owning the whole country is highly unlikely. A large part of the responsibility for the events we are witnessing belongs to the military establishment and its inexplicable blindness. Did they really not know that their puppet government would fall as soon as we left? Seems everyone else did.
• Second, another reason for the events we are witnessing is that Afghanistan just isn’t a country in any of the traditional senses. Here’s Howie Klein, describing an extended trip he took to Afghanistan in 1969, one of several: That’s where I learned that Afghanistan wasn’t a country the way we think of a country. The king told me he was the king of Kabul. He wasn’t the king of Kandahar. I experienced that sentiment almost everywhere I went in the country, but it was most pronounced in Kandahar. Later Kandahar became the spiritual home of the Taliban. Last night reported that “the Taliban pressed their rapid advance across Afghanistan with the capture of Kandahar,” he was really just expressing the inevitable, something I hope to God American war planners already understood was going to happen. The “nation” of Afghanistan is a 19th century British construct, meaningless lines on a Whitehall map. The Pashtun areas of Afghanistan have more in common with the Pashtun region Pakistan than they do with the rest of their so-called “country.” These are not nations. They became “nations” only under British imperial rule and the subsequent breakup of that brutal empire.
• Third, the violence and retribution certain to be inflicted by the Taliban are not unique to the Taliban. Violence, including violence against women, is normal in Afghanistan, and further, also normal in every nation liberated from an invader. Howie Klein again: You would be extraordinarily naive if you think there isn’t going to be retribution from the Taliban in Afghanistan now against collaborators. Fox and the GOP will blow it up as a way to smear Biden but if there was no retribution, it would be the first time in history people who collaborated with an occupying power got off scot free. Afs know it, of course, which is way so many are absolutely panic-stricken at what is still the Hamid Karzai International Airport. The following is especially striking: At that wedding I went to in 1969, after the men ate off the giant platters of food, dogs and slaves (technically “servants”) ate and what was left was brought in to the women at the back of the house, who had prepared the feast all day and certainly knew what they were missing out on. I recall wondering more than once why don’t the women kill the men in their sleep?

 White House Slams 'Soulless' Blackwater Founder Erik Prince Charging $6,500 For Kabul Evac Flight - Media coverage of Afghanistan has been widely centered on the thousands of Americans and Afghans who are leaving Kabul Airport on military transport jets. With the Aug. 31 deadline looming, of when U.S. military forces must withdraw from Afghanistan or face severe consequences from the Taliban (who are now armed with U.S. weapons), defense contractor and Blackwater founder Erik Prince has found a way to profit off the dire situation. The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that Prince guarantees people a seat on a charter flight out of the wartorn country for $6,500. An extra fee will apply if defense contractors extract people from their homes for safe passage to Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul. WSJ wasn't clear on how much the extraction would cost. Prince's services come as U.S. citizens and Afghan allies are scrambling for the exits of the Taliban-controlled country.Other defense contractor companies are offering similar services, and some are even offering ground travel out of the country, and of course, all for a hefty fee. Private rescue efforts are increasing as the U.S. military struggles around the clock to evacuate tens of thousands of people. Approximately 19,000 people have been evacuated from the country between early Tuesday and early Wednesday. White House officials are saying a total of 82,300 people have left the country. White House press secretary Jen Psaki condemned Prince's actions, telling reporters during her Wednesday press briefing:"I don't think any human being who has a heart and soul would support efforts to profit off of people's agony and pain if they're trying to depart a country and fearing for their lives," adding that "we are evacuating people free of cost because that is the right step to take and certainly we wouldn't be supportive of profiting off people who are desperate to get out of a country

Supreme Court rebuffs Biden over Trump-era 'Remain in Mexico' policy - The Supreme Court on Tuesday rebuffed the Biden administration's effort to halt the reinstatement of a controversial Trump-era immigration measure known as the “Remain in Mexico” policy. In a brief order that broke along familiar ideological lines, the conservative-majority court declined to intervene after a lower court revived the policy, which requires asylum-seekers at the southern border to stay in Mexico while their applications are processed. Justice Samuel Alito wrote that the administration had failed to show it was likely to ultimately prevail in defending the lawfulness of its decision to rescind the Trump measure, officially called the Migrant Protection Protocols (MPP). Alito, who handles emergency requests from Texas, referred the matter to the court. None of his fellow conservative justices commented on the matter, though the court’s three liberals indicated they would have granted the administration’s request. The court’s move comes after a federal judge in Texas ordered the Biden administration to reinstate the program in response to a lawsuit by the attorneys general of Texas and Missouri. A three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit let stand that ruling, prompting the Biden administration’s emergency request to the justices. Former President Trump’s policy, implemented in 2019, blocked migrants at the Mexican border from entering the U.S. to apply for asylum, leaving what the Biden administration estimates is now around 25,000 people awaiting their fates in Mexico. More than 60,000 asylum-seekers were returned to Mexico under the MPP, a departure from previous practice of allowing those fleeing violence to cross the border and apply for asylum within the U.S. The Biden administration sought to formally end the Trump-era policy in June, which was spelled out in a memorandum by Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. But earlier this month, Texas-based U.S. District Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk, a Trump appointee, ruled that the Biden administration had failed to provide a legally adequate rationale for its rescission and ordered that the policy would have to remain in place until the administration undergoes a lengthy administrative procedure to overturn it.

 Biden's misguided about-face on COVID testing puts us all at risk - In August 2020, the Food and Drug Administration granted Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for the Abbott BinaxNOW COVID-19 Ag Card, a $5, 15-minute rapid test now widely used to detect highly infectious variants. The test is an affordable, portable tool in the battle against COVID-19 infection, as well as a textbook example of the Trump administration’s close collaboration with the private sector to develop solutions for complex problems.Fast-forward to August 2021. The New York Times found Abbott Laboratories’ leadership instructed employees to dismantle and destroy thousands of rapid tests before announcing widespread layoffs at their Maine plant.The reason? A de-emphasis on the importance of testing over the last nine months by the Biden administration.Diagnostic testing innovations such as the Abbott BinaxNOW rapid test didn’t happen by accident. Early in the pandemic, private companies who could quickly scale production collaborated closely with a cross-departmental interdisciplinary team of federal experts to guide research, investment and deployment of new innovations. Literally a card with chemicals on it, the BinaxNOW test has a sensitivity of 91.7 percent and specificity of 98.5 percent to detect an individuals’ infectiousness in near real-time. Shortly after FDA issued the BinaxNOW EUA, The Department of Health and Human Services immediately procured and deployed the first 150 million tests produced in weekly shipments to states, nursing homes, Historically Black Colleges and Universities and other vulnerable populations. It made a difference.

ACOs Did Not Cut Costs As Planned. It is Time to Stop the Experiment - For the last half-century, Congress has endorsed essentially the same approach to cutting health care costs, an approach that came to be called “managed care” by the mid-1980s. Based on the assumption that U.S. health care costs are double those of other wealthy nations because doctors order services patients don’t need, the solution is to “manage” doctors and provide financial incentives that nudge them to cut services.The managed care approach has not only failed to cut costs, it has contributed to health care inflation by encouraging mergers and driving up administrative costs. The failure of the accountable care organization (ACO), a prominent iteration of managed care, illustrates the problem.The ACO label was invented at a 2006 meeting of the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission (MedPAC). The concept was tested between 2005 and 2010 in the Physician Group Practice (PGP) Demonstration. In 2009, even as early results of the PGP project were showing that the accountable care concept wouldn’t work, Congress added provisions to the Affordable Care Act requiring the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) to insert accountable care organizations into the traditional Medicare program.ACOs are hospital-clinic chains that sign contracts with insurers (in Medicare’s case, with CMS) to share financial risk. That means an accountable care organization splits profits with CMS if profits are made and shares losses if losses occur. They work like this: CMS sets expenditure targets for accountable care organizations at the beginning of each year. At the end of the year, CMS sends ACOs that have spent less than their target a “shared savings payment.” In some programs, ACOs that exceed their target pay CMS a penalty.In an article published online this month in the Journal of General Internal Medicine, we reviewed evaluations of all four of Medicare’s accountable care experiments that CMS has conducted since 2005. All four failed to affect Medicare spending; their impacts ranged from tiny savings of a few tenths of a percent to equally tiny losses. If we include in our calculations the costs that accountable care organizations incur in their futile efforts to reduce Medicare spending, such as contracting with insurance companies to manage risk and hiring more nurses, these organizations actually raise health care costs. ACOs are supposed to work best for a population living with many chronic illnesses, such as Medicare enrollees. If these programs can’t cut Medicare costs, they clearly can’t cut costs for the whole country.

Child tax credit payments would up average monthly income for HUD-assisted families by about 38 percent: report | TheHill - The Housing and Urban Development (HUD) says in a new report that advance payments of the expanded child tax credit would increase the average monthly income for families receiving its assistance by almost 38 percent. In an analysis of the credit’s impact on HUD-assisted families obtained by The Hill on Monday, the agency estimated that, over the course of the current six-month disbursement period, payments that total to an average of about $3,300 per household would account for nearly “27.5 percent of a family’s total income over that period.” “The average monthly income for HUD-assisted families with children is approximately $1,460, or $8,760 over six months. On average, Advance Child Tax Credit payments will increase monthly income by $550 among these families,” states the report, which was authored by analysts Veronica Helms Garrison and Janet Li. Millions of families began receiving monthly payments as part of the credit expansion included in the President Biden’s $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief law that was enacted earlier this year. Under the expansion, the tax credit families can receive for children ages 6 to 17 was raised from $2,000 to $3,000, and for children under the age of 6 to $3,600. The law also allows low-income families to receive the funds immediately and requires the IRS to distribute payments from July to December. Of the 4.6 million households that received assistance from HUD last year, 34 percent, or about 1.6 million, consist of families with children, most of which are eligible for the advance payments. While many families received automatic payments once the IRS began to distribute the funds, some did not if they did not file taxes last year or the year before. HUD has advised households to sign up for the payments so the IRS can determine their eligibility. The agency stated in the report that households that earn low or no annual wages should also “still file a tax return to access the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), which works like a negative income tax (that is, a tax refund) for those eligible.” According to agency data, single heads of households that earned at least $18,650 last year were required to file tax returns. But analysts estimated that more than three-fifths of HUD-assisted families with kids reported less than that. A racial breakdown of agency data also showed that nonwhite families comprise a vast majority of HUD-assisted households eligible for the advance payments. Black families account for approximately 53 percent of those households, Hispanic households for more than 20 percent and Asians household account for 1 percent.

Proud Boys leader sentenced to 5 months in jail for burning banner, high-capacity rifle magazines -A leader of the far-right extremist group Proud Boys was sentenced to five months in jail after he pleaded guilty to vandalizing a historically Black church in Washington, D.C, in December, the Department of Justice (DOJ) announced Monday.Henry “Enrique” Tarrio, 37, of Miami, Fla., was sentenced after burning a Black Lives Matter banner torn down from a historic Black church. He also was charged with bringing two high-capacity firearm magazines into the district two days before the Jan. 6 riot.Tarrio pleaded guilty last month to one count of destruction of property and one count of attempted possession of a large-capacity ammunition feeding device.Tarrio reportedly told the court that he was “profusely” sorry for his actions, adding that what he did "was wrong," according to The Associated Press. In December, Proud Boys members, including Tarrio, tore the sign, which read "#BLACKLIVESMATTER," off Asbury United Methodist Church and set it ablaze. He posted a photo of him holding an unlit lighter to conservative social media platform Parler and later admitted to participating in the flag burning.

 "Inner Conflict"? Minnesota Mosque Bomber Demands Lower Sentence Due To Gender Dysphoria - We often follow novel or new arguments raised in criminal cases and one such defense has arisen in the case of a defendant convicted of bombing a Minnesota mosque in 2017. Michael Hari, 50, has asked the court to recognize his status as a transgender woman named Emily Claire Hari.She further asks for the minimum sentence due to the “inner conflict” caused by his gender dysphoria. That is the first such argument that I have seen in a criminal case.Hari bombed the Dar al-Farooq (DAF) Islamic Center in Bloomington, Minnesota, on Aug. 5, 2017. She is also the founder of the militia group and Heavy details her history of arrests (including abducting her daughters) and her curious enterprises (like making a bid to build the Southern wall). She also was a deputy sheriff and ran for sheriff as a libertarian. She belonged to a community that dressed “plain” like the Amish and became radicalized as a “three percenter” militia member.After a five-week trial, Hari was convicted on all five counts of the indictment, including intentionally defacing, damaging and destroying any religious real property because of the religious character of that property; intentionally obstructing, and attempting to obstruct, by force and the threat of force, the free exercise of religious beliefs; conspiracy to commit federal felonies by means of fire and explosives; carrying and using a destructive device during and in relation to crimes of violence; and possession of an unregistered destructive device.

 After Backlash, OnlyFans Suspends Plan to Ban Sexually Explicit Content --Sex workers, online influencers, and digital rights advocates cautiously celebrated on Wednesday after the subscription website OnlyFans announced it was suspending widely criticized plans to ban sexually explicit content from the platform.OnlyFans announced last week that its new policy would take effect October 1, sparking swift, sweeping backlash. The London-based company's founder, Tim Stokely, blamed the now-suspended changes on banks.The suspension announcement came in a pair of tweets."Thank you to everyone for making your voices heard. We have secured assurances necessary to support our diverse creator community and have suspended the planned October 1 policy change OnlyFans stands for inclusion and we will continue to provide a home for all creators," the company said. "An official communication to creators will be emailed shortly."Responding to the move, Evan Greer, director of the digital advocacy group Fight for the Future, said that "organizing works and don't let anyone ever tell you otherwise."The U.K.-based group United Sex Workers declared, "Never underestimate the power of community, together we demanded our voices were heard." However, "'suspended' is not canceled, and Onlyfans is not to be trusted," the group added. "Now more than ever, it is time we come together and fight for our rights at work."

Millions exposed due to Microsoft misconfiguration -Cybersecurity group UpGuard started out the week on a bang by revealing its findings that 38 million records were exposed online earlier this year due to a misconfiguration in a Microsoft application, including COVID-contact tracing information. And about a week after tech companies announced plans to tackle Taliban content — with proposals to ban it to varying degrees — a U.N.-backed group came out with an update to its terrorist organization list to include the militant organization. The group now recommends platforms remove and ban content by Taliban after it regained control of Afghanistan. EXPOSED: Thirty-eight million records from dozens of organizations, including COVID-19 contact tracing information, were exposed online earlier this year due to a misconfiguration in a Microsoft product, according to research published Monday.Cybersecurity group UpGuard’s research team detailed in a report that it had notified 47 groups that their data had been exposed. These were government organizations including the Maryland Department of Health, New York City Schools, New York City Municipal Transportation Authority and the government of the state of Indiana. Data from private companies was also exposed, including from various other Microsoft groups, Ford, American Airlines and J.B. Hunt. Data exposed included COVID-19 contact tracing, vaccination appointments, Social Security numbers, employee IDs and other personal information on millions of individuals. The exposed data, first discovered by researchers at the end of May, was not compromised, and was the result of configuration on Microsoft’s Power Apps, which allows customers to build data applications for their business needs. The application exposed millions of data points due to them being made publicly available as a result of a configuration in Power Apps that has since been corrected. Read more about the incident here.

Cyberattacks draw tech, bank CEOs to White House for brainstorm - Chief executives from across the business world are set to join President Biden for a discussion Wednesday on how industry and the federal government can partner to improve cybersecurity in the face of debilitating ransomware and cyberattacks.The White House will meet with industry leaders to announce new public-private initiatives as well as cybersecurity workforce training efforts to fill the approximately 500,000 open jobs in the industry. Biden has called Apple CEO Tim Cook, Alphabet Inc.'s Google CEO Sundar Pichai, Amazon.com CEO Andy Jassy, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, and JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon to Washington to make commitments on workforce development and improvements to cybersecurity in their sectors, according to a senior administration official.The meeting follows massive cyber and ransomware attacks over the past year on critical infrastructure, including that of Colonial Pipeline Co. and JBS SA, as well as software and cloud providers such as Microsoft and SolarWinds, which have largely been perpetrated by cyber groups based in Russia and China.

 Fraud prevention is hit-or-miss. The misses cost customers dearly. | American Banker - The banking industry talks a good game about preventing fraud and protecting people and businesses from bad actors, but my personal experiences illustrate how the quality of such efforts can vary dramatically from one bank to the next. On discovering that one of my checks, thought to be “lost in the mail,” had been cashed at the intended recipient’s branch, I contacted my bank, Bank A. Its fraud investigation department acted quickly, and after examining the cashed check, found that the signature had obviously been forged. The amount of the check — $1,500 — was immediately refunded to my account, and I was asked to write another check, marking it “replacement check.” Bank A settled the issue promptly and efficiently, and I was able to discuss what had happened with the fraud investigation team. That could not be more different from the treatment I and others at a business, which we’ll call A Jones LLC, received from Bank B. One of our company’s directors apparently had her email account hacked, and an invoice was sent to her long-standing client requesting payment for services rendered. The client was expecting the invoice, so the requested fee of $109,000 was promptly paid by wire transfer to A Jones LLC, but sent to a different account with a different bank than the usual one. As soon as the CEO of A Jones LLC learned that the expected fee had been paid into an account at Bank B, he contacted the relevant branch. Bank B’s staff refused to provide any information to the CEO, because his company did not have an account with Bank B. Documentary evidence, the invoice and the international wire transfer, were provided.

 Crypto watchers eager for signals on Fed's digital dollar plans - — The Federal Reserve has left the financial markets somewhat in suspense about whether the central bank is serious about issuing its own digital currency. But some clarity could be right around the corner. The Fed is set to release a report next month detailing its thinking about a digital dollar, financial stability concerns regarding private stablecoins and other policy questions related to the digital payments sphere. While the paper would likely kick off a further process of public dialogue and internal policymaking rather than bring resolution, many expect the Fed to use the report to signal whether the digital dollar will be a reality.

Tech vendors applaud Fed's caution on central bank digital currency -The Federal Reserve’s deliberate approach to creating a central bank digital currency is appropriate, tech vendors at a recent conference said. The central bank’s caution gives the U.S. time to see what other early adopters and risk takers encounter in regulatory red tape and business and consumer adoption, they said. The Bank of England, People's Bank of China, Bank of Canada and central banks in Uruguay, Thailand, Venezuela, Sweden, Singapore and other countries are further along in developing central bank digital currencies, and Russia has been developing its crypto ruble the past two years. Executives from IBM, R3 and Public Mint shared their thoughts on CBDCs and on Facebook's attempt to launch its own digital currency.

Is there a correlation between US Covid cases and crypto prices? - You might recall that back in the very early days of Covid-19 (or just “coronavirus” as it was then known), some crypto nutters enthusiasts started getting excited about the idea that the virus would be good for bitcoin because “paper money” “might be the source of #CORONAVIRUS #SARS2 infection”. After all, “fiat is dirty”: Now, to be fair to the bitcoin bros (not great) and XRP army (worse), even the World Health Organisation had around that time started pushing the idea thatCovid could be being spread by banknotes (while simultaneously recommending that people should not wear masks), now thought to be “very unlikely”. Even if banknotes were a key transmission vector, however, we are not sure that “dirty fiat” itself could be held responsible, given that the vast majority of it only exists in digital form. Why would you use bitcoin, or XRP, or any other crypto token when you can transact digitally using fiat currencies?Yet in some ways, the crypto crowd were not wrong. In the almost 18 months since Covid-19 was declared a pandemic, the price of bitcoin has risen by about 525 per cent, from just under $8,000 to a three-month high just above $50,000 on Monday. XRP has climbed by a similar amount to trade around the $1.25 mark. And that, we regret to inform you, has led to some rather silly thinking (highly unusual in the crypto community, we know), specifically of the chart-crime variety: Want to see an interesting relation? Check the relation between COVID case numbers and $ETH, #BTC. Yes, a most “interesting relation” indeed. When Ethereum (or “ether” as the token that powers the network is called) hit its record high of just under $4,200 in early May (not of course higher than the bitcoin price at the time though you wouldn’t know that from the above), the chart shows Covid cases falling towards their lowest levels since April 2020. When bitcoin hit its record high of around $63,000 just a few weeks earlier, Covid cases had already fallen very steeply, according to the chart. And when Covid cases hit their highest levels in early January, bitcoin suffered its worst crash in eight months. It’s almost as if there is no correlation between crypto prices and Covid cases whatsoever, isn’t it? (Both crypto coins have risen in recent days, while cases have also risen; there’s not an inverse relationship either.) It should be noted that crypto prices also started rising more quickly when Donald Trump lost the presidential election, so we should probably have a think about the notion that Trump might actually be Satoshi, and that now with more free time on his hands he is focusing on pumping the market. After all it is highly likely that he is a Japanese-trained quantum physicist (do make sure you get to 2:09 in this for proof of his knowledge of thermodynamics, and to 2:45 for evidence of his reading Japanese):

5 ways Washington could shake up the stablecoin sector - — The tremendous growth in stablecoin issuers such as Tether and Circle's USD Coin has drawn the attention of virtually every U.S. financial regulator as well as the Biden administration, raising the likelihood that the emerging sector will eventually fall subject to federal rules and enforcement. What approach regulators ultimately take is far from certain, but officials and outside observers have floated a number of possible scenarios, from regulating stablecoins like bank deposits to treating them more like a security. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is weighing a separate policy — whether to issue its own digital currency — that could shake up the competitive landscape for stablecoins. Most policymakers agree that the ecosystem of stablecoins — a type of cryptocurrency that generally pegs itself to other forms of fiat money to maintain a set value — is not quite large or significant enough yet to constitute an immediate threat to financial stability. In July, senior officials from the Treasury Department, Fed, Securities and Exchange Commission, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency attended a meeting of the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets. The group specifically convened to discuss “the rapid growth of stablecoins, potential uses of stablecoins as a means of payment, and potential risks to end-users, the financial system, and national security,” according to a Treasury press release. A debate is emerging among economists, lawyers, academics and fintech advocates on what is the appropriate government response. While some have called on the SEC to treat stablecoins broadly as an investment vehicle, cryptocurrency advocates fear that bank-caliber regulation could squash the sector’s innovative potential before it can develop. Here are five potential scenarios for regulatory policy — none of them mutually exclusive — that would have a direct or indirect impact on stablecoins.

 The SEC Is Allowing 5-Count Felon JPMorgan Chase to Trade Its Own Bank Stock in its Own Dark Pools By Pam Martens -JPMorgan Chase is unique among the mega banks on Wall Street – and not in a good way. It owns the largest federally-insured bank in the United States despite a rap sheet that would make the Gambino crime family jealous. It has been charged by the U.S. Department of Justice with five felony counts since 2014, admitting to all of them. Its Board of Directors has left the same man, Jamie Dimon, at the helm of the bank as Chairman and CEO, throughout those five felony counts.JPMorgan Chase is also the only American bank to ever be fined for using depositors’ money to gamble in derivatives in London and lose $6.2 billion of that money. (Jamie Dimon was Chairman and CEO at the bank then as well.)JPMorgan Chase is the only federally-insured bank in the United States to be charged with two felony counts for helping to facilitate the largest Ponzi scheme in history – the Bernie Madoff looting of thousands of investors.And despite this serial crime wave, the share price of its publicly-traded stock (ticker JPM) has somehow managed to behave like the most well-managed bank in America. Either Americans have no problem investing their life savings in a repeat felon or something untoward is going on here with the trading in this stock.Since January 7, 2014, when the U.S. Department of Justice charged JPMorgan Chase with its first two felony counts for its role in the Madoff swindle, to its closing price yesterday, the share price of JPMorgan Chase has significantly outperformed the S&P 500 Index.During this same span of time, JPMorgan Chase has been trading the shares of its own bank stock in its own Dark Pool. Dark Pools have little oversight by regulators and allow trades to occur without the bid or ask side of the trade being first exposed to “lit” markets, such as licensed stock exchanges. With the exception of Wells Fargo, all of the mega banks on Wall Street are operating their own Dark Pools. (The SEC refers to Dark Pools as ATS or Alternative Trading Systems.)Until August of 2017, JPMorgan Chase operated only one Dark Pool, known as JPM-X. But in August 2017, the bank added a second Dark Pool, which also began to trade in the shares of its own bank stock. That second Dark Pool is known as JPB-X.Wall Street’s chummy self-regulator, FINRA, decided to create the illusion of adding a little transparency to what is going on in Dark Pools in June of 2014. That’s when FINRA began to publish stale, three-week old trading data that was aggregated not by daily trading totals, but lumped together for an entire week, making it impossible for researchers to look for insider trading, front running and other share price manipulations. The first week for which Dark Pool trading data was released by FINRA was the week of May 12, 2014. FINRA released the data on June 2, 2014.For the past seven years we have checked that FINRA data and witnessed JPMorgan Chase (as well as other banks) trading in the shares of their own bank stocks. We have repeatedly in the past asked the SEC to explain how this constitutes legal activity. We have yet to receive an answer.In the most recent week reported by FINRA for Dark Pool trading, JPMorgan’s two Dark Pools traded a total of 518,277 shares of JPMorgan Chase stock in a total of 3,308 separate trades. As the chart below from FINRA data indicates, JPMorgan Chase’s own Dark Pool, JPM-X, was the third largest Dark Pool trader in the shares of its own stock for the week of August 2, 2021. In the four weeks from July 12 through the week of August 2, FINRA data shows that JPMorgan’s two Dark Pools made a total of 22,070 trades in its own stock.

New York cracks down on bank overdraft fees. Will OCC, CFPB follow? --A new law in New York that’s designed to curb bank overdraft fees may not have much muscle on its own, but some observers believe it could be a harbinger of broader reform.The measure — which is believed to be the first of its kind — requires state-chartered banks that offer consumer checking accounts to pay checks in the order they are received, or from the smallest to largest dollar amount for each business day's transactions. Set to take effect on Jan. 1, the New York law does not apply to federally chartered banks, and it is not expected to apply to credit unions. Even for state-chartered banks, the impact figures to be fairly small, since checks have long been waning in popularity, and the law’s restrictions do not apply to either debit card transactions or electronic payments on the automated clearing house network.

'Night and day': FHFA's priorities rapidly changing under new leader - — In her two months as acting director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, Sandra Thompson has overseen a major shift in the regulator’s focus, affordable housing advocates say, pointing to policies her team has put in place to bolster fair lending and expand access to credit for first-time homebuyers. President Biden named Thompson acting director of the agency June 23 after removing Mark Calabria as head of the agency in the wake of a Supreme Court ruling that said the FHFA's leadership structure was unconstitutional. Calabria — appointed by former President Donald Trump — largely devoted his tenure to putting the government-sponsored enterprises on a path out of conservatorship. Under his leadership, the agency finalized a post-conservatorship capital framework and entered into an agreement with the Treasury Department to allow Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to retain earnings and hold significantly more capital.

 Only a Fraction of Covid-19 Rental Assistance Has Been Distributed – WSJ - The U.S. program to help tenants and landlords struggling with the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic is still moving at a slow pace and has delivered a fraction of the promised aid, data released by the Treasury Department on Wednesday show. Since December, Congress has appropriated a total of $46.6 billion to help tenants who were behind on their rent. As of July 31, just $4.7 billion had been distributed to landlords and tenants, the Treasury said. Wednesday’s data show that rental aid has begun to move faster in some states, though July’s $1.7 billion reflected only a modest overall increase from the $1.5 billion distributed in June. While the program is overseen by the Treasury, it relies on a patchwork of more than 450 state, county and municipal governments and charitable organizations to distribute aid. The result: months of delays as local governments built new programs from scratch, hired staff and crafted rules for how the money should be distributed, then struggled to process a deluge of applications. Administration officials acknowledge the program has moved too slowly relative to the need. Still, they say it has provided nearly one million payments to households, including about 341,000 in July alone—an indication that it has provided meaningful relief to struggling tenants. While 70 jurisdictions had distributed more than half of their initial allotment of rental assistance by the end of July, “too many grantees have yet to demonstrate sufficient progress in getting assistance to struggling tenants and landlords,” the Treasury said in a blog post accompanying the release of Wednesday’s data. Hundreds of thousands of aid applications are in the pipeline beyond those that have already been paid, Treasury said, citing public dashboards. To allow for more time to distribute the money, the Biden administration this month extended a federal eviction moratorium until at least Oct. 3. It had expired at the end of July and had previously been extended several times. The moratorium has protected millions of tenants but created financial hardships for some landlords unable to collect rental income they rely upon for their own livelihoods. Several states, including California and New York, have imposed their own eviction bans.

MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Slightly Decreases to 3.25%" -Note: This is as of August 15th. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Slightly Decreases to 3.25%: The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 1 basis point from 3.26% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 3.25% as of August 15, 2021. According to MBA’s estimate, 1.6 million homeowners are in forbearance plans.The share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance decreased 3 basis points to 1.66%. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance decreased 3 basis points to 3.92%, while the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) increased 10 basis points to 7.15%. The percentage of loans in forbearance for independent mortgage bank (IMB) servicers increased 2 basis points to 3.48%, and the percentage of loans in forbearance for depository servicers decreased 1 basis point to 3.35%.“The share of loans in forbearance was little changed, as both new requests and exits were at a slower pace compared to the prior week. In fact, exits were at their slowest pace in over a year,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “There were more new forbearance requests and re-entries for portfolio and PLS loans, leading to a 10-basis-point increase in their share. Portfolio and PLS loans now account for almost 50% of all depository servicer loans in forbearance and almost 40% of IMB servicer loans in forbearance, which highlights the importance of this investor category.” This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time. Most of the increase was in late March and early April 2020, and has trended down since then.The MBA notes: "Total weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) decreased relative to the prior week: from 0.06% to 0.05%.%"

 Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Increased Slightly - Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance. This data is as of August 24th. From Black Knight: Familiar Midmonth Uptick in Forbearances Continuing the same mid-month trend we also noted last week, the number of active forbearance plans edged slightly higher once again. According to Black Knight’s McDash Flash forbearance tracker, there are now 1.76 million borrowers who remain in COVID-19 related forbearance plans as of August 24, including 1.9% of GSE, 5.8% of FHA/VA and 4.1% of portfolio held and privately securitized mortgages.The overall number of active forbearances rose by 12,000 since last Tuesday, driven primarily by a 10,000 increase in plans among portfolio/PLS loans. FHA/VA volumes also rose – though a more modest 3,000 – with GSE plans seeing the week’s only decline (-1,000). This puts plan volumes down 132,000 from the same time last month for a 7% decline. More than 150,000 plans are slated for review for extension or removal through the final week of August, so there is still some opportunity for modest improvement yet this month.That number ramps up to nearly 670,000 for September, though, with 415,000 of those plans set to reach their final expiration next month based on current allowable forbearance term lengths.

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey - From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey- Mortgage applications increased 1.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 20, 2021... The Refinance Index increased 1 percent from the previous week and was 3 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 16 percent lower than the same week one year ago.“Treasury yields fell last week, as investors continue to anxiously monitor if the rise in COVID-19 cases in several states starts to dampen economic activity. Mortgage rates slightly declined as a result, with the 30-year fixed rate decreasing for the first time in three weeks. Lower rates led to an increase in refinance applications, with government loan applications jumping 10 percent to the highest level since May 2021,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Purchase applications for both conventional and government loans also increased. The purchase index was at its highest level since early July, despite still continuing to lag 2020’s pace. There was also some easing in average loan sizes, which is potentially a sign that more first-time buyers looking for lower-priced homes are being helped by the recent uptick in for-sale inventory for both newly built homes and existing homes.”...The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($548,250 or less) decreased to 3.03 percent from 3.06 percent, with points decreasing to 0.29 from 0.34 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

30 Year Mortgage Rates "Stuck in the Middle" at 2.93% - From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Rates Stuck in The Middle: Rates are on hold until the next chapter is written in the complex saga of covid versus the market. This isn't to say rates perfectly flat--simply that the prevailing momentum has been sideways for the past few weeks.Since mortgage rates only change once or twice a day, we can use 10yr Treasury yields to see finer detail. This entire week took place in the fairly narrow range of 1.29 to 1.21, and it ended with yields precisely in the middle at 1.25%....What does all this mean in plain English? Rates are low--much lower than most anyone expected at this point in the year. The key reason is "delta" and Fed's patient approach to changing rate-friendly policies. The lingering concerns about the nature of the post-covid economy also make the list. [30 year fixed 2.93%]This is a graph from Mortgage News Daily (MND) showing 30 year fixed rates from three sources (MND, MBA, Freddie Mac). Go to MND and you can adjust the graph for different time periods. 30 year mortgage rates are just above the record lows in 2020.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 5.99 million in July --From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Climb 2.0% in July: Existing-home sales rose in July, marking two consecutive months of increases, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Three of the four major U.S. regions recorded modest month-over-month gains, and the fourth remained level. Figures varied from a year-over-year perspective as two regions saw gains, one witnessed a decline and one was unchanged.Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, grew 2.0% from June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.99 million in July. Sales inched up year-over-year, increasing 1.5% from a year ago (5.90 million in July 2020)....Total housing inventory at the end of July totaled 1.32 million units, up 7.3% from June's supply and down 12.0% from one year ago (1.50 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 2.6-month supply at the present sales pace, up slightly from the 2.5-month figure recorded in June but down from 3.1 months in July 2020.This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.Sales in July (5.99 million SAAR) were up 2.0% from last month, and were 1.5% above the July 2020 sales rate.The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.According to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.32 million in July from 1.23 million in June. Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted,it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.Inventory was down 12.0% year-over-year in July compared to July 2020.Months of supply increased to 2.6 months in July from 2.5 months in June.This was slightly above the consensus forecast.

A note on existing home sales - Existing home sales are the least noteworthy of the housing data, because of the very limited economic activity moving into or out of an existing home provokes compared with the construction, furnishing, and landscaping of a new home. But it’s worth a brief look, so let’s note this month’s report. Existing home sales (blue in the graph below) are only up 1.7% compared with one year ago, as opposed to new single family home sales (red), which are off over 30%! : Prices for all existing homes (blue) and single family existing homes (violet) are up almost 20% - which is still less than the 23% YoY increase recorded one month ago. Note that the median price for new single family homes (red) is also higher, but much less so at 10%: It is likely that the supply constraint of lumber for new homes has crimped some construction, driving some demand to existing homes, the median price of which tends to be less, and which in turn is driving up the prices for same, as well as driving down inventory. Here’s a look at the YoY% change in inventory of existing homes (blue) vs. new homes (red) for the past 4 years: In general both move in tandem (and in the case of new homes, we know that inventory lags both sales and prices), but the decline in existing home inventory, which had been slow for the past decade, started to accelerate even before the pandemic hit as sales increased. As more and more potential buyers grow gun-shy about the insane price increases, I expect prices to level off and then actually decline, with a concomitant increase in inventory that likely began in the spring.

Comments on July Existing Home Sales – McBride - Earlier: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 5.99 million in July Two key points:

• 1) Existing home sales are somewhat above pre-pandemic levels rate of around 5.5 million SAAR (average six months prior to pandemic). Seasonally adjusted (SA) sales for July 2021 were also the highest since 2006 - about 2% above July 2020. Some of the increase in sales over the previous year was probably related to record low mortgage rates, strong second home buying, a strong stock market and favorable demographics. Also, the delay in the 2020 buying season pushed the seasonally adjusted number to very high levels over the winter. This means there are going to be some difficult comparisons in the second half of 2021!
• 2) Inventory is very low, and was down 12.0% year-over-year (YoY) in May. Also, as housing economist Tom Lawler has noted, the local MLS data shows even a larger decline in active inventory (the NAR appears to include some pending sales in inventory). Lawler noted: "As I’ve noted before, the inventory measure in most publicly-released local realtor/MLS reports excludes listings with pending contracts, but that is not the case for many of the reports sent to the NAR (referred to as the “NAR Report!”), Since the middle of last Spring inventory measures excluding pending listings have fallen much more sharply than inventory measures including such listings, and this latter inventory measure understates the decline in the effective inventory of homes for sale over the last several months."

It seems likely that active inventory is down close to 30% year-over-year.Months-of-supply at 2.6 months is still very low, but above the record low of 1.9 months set in December 2020 and January 2021. Inventory will be important to watch in 2021, see: Some thoughts on Housing Inventory This graph shows existing home sales by month for 2020 and 2021.The year-over-year comparison will be more difficult in the second half of the year. The second graph shows existing home sales for each month, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), since 2005.Sales NSA in July (584,000) were 2.2% below sales in July 2020 (597,000). There were fewer selling days in July 2021 than in July 2020, so the SA numbers were higher than last year, even though the NSA numbers were lower.This was the second highest sales for July, NSA, since 2006.

Housing Inventory August 23rd Update: Inventory Increased Week-over-week, Up 41% from Low in early April - Tracking existing home inventory will be very important this year. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of August 20th, inventory was at 432 thousand (7 day average), compared to 594 thousand for the same week a year ago. That is a decline of 27.3%. Compared to the same week in 2019, inventory is down 55%. A week ago, inventory was at 422 thousand, and was down 29.8% YoY. Seasonally, inventory has bottomed. Inventory was about 40.8% above the record low in early April. A couple of interesting points from 2019: In 2019, inventory bottomed at 814 thousand in February (so inventory is still very low compared to normal levels). And, in 2019, inventory peaked at 972 thousand in early August (an increase of about 19% from the low). So inventory is less than half of what we'd normally expect, however inventory has increased (as a percentage) more than normal. Key question: Usually inventory peaks in the Summer, and then declines into the Fall. Will inventory follow the normal seasonal pattern, or will inventory continue to increase over the coming months? This will be important to watch for house prices and housing activity. Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube. Altos Research has also seen a significant pickup in price decreases - back to the level of a year ago - but still well below a normal rate for August.

REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey July 2021: "Demand is cooling in a moderately strong market" - Some interesting information from the REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey July 2021 Several metrics indicate that demand is cooling in a moderately strong market. With limited supply in the market, homes typically sold within 17 days (22 days one year ago). The REALTORS® Buyer Traffic Index decreased further from 71 in June to 64 in July (moderately strong conditions) while the REALTORS® Seller Traffic Index remains below 50 which is “weak” traffic compared to the level one year ago. On average, a home sold had more than 4 offers, for which remains unchanged from last month’s survey. REALTORS® expect home prices in the next three months to increase nearly 2% from one year ago compared to 4% outlook in last month’s survey. Respondents expect sales in the next three months to decrease 1% from last year’s sales level compared to the 1% outlook in last month’s survey. This map, from the July NAR report, shows buyer traffic is mostly "moderately strong" just about everywhere.This is less demand than last month, and significantly less than a few months ago.As the NAR noted: "demand is cooling in a moderately strong market".The second map is from the April report.In April, buyer traffic was very strong just about everywhere.There has also been a shift in seller traffic, with more traffic in many states (compare map from April on page 3to the map from July also on page 3).

New Home Sales Increase to 708,000 Annual Rate in July --The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 708 thousand. The previous three months were revised up, combined. Sales of new single‐family houses in July 2021 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 708,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 1.0 percent above the revised June rate of 701,000, but is 27.2 percent below the July 2020 estimate of 972,000. The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate. New home sales are now declining year-over-year since sales soared following the first few months of the pandemic.The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.The months of supply increased in July to 6.2 months from 6.0 months in June.The all time record high was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. The all time record low was 3.5 months, most recently in October 2020.This is above the normal range (about 4 to 6 months supply is normal)."The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of July was 367,000. This represents a supply of 6.2 months at the current sales rate."Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke inventory down into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed.The third graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973.The inventory of completed homes for sale is just above the record low, but the combined total of completed and under construction is close to normal.The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).In July 2021 (red column), 63 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 85 thousand homes were sold in July.The all time high for July was 117 thousand in 2005, and the all time low for July was 26 thousand in 2010. This was above expectations of 690 thousand sales SAAR, and sales in the three previous months were revised up, combined. This graph shows new home sales for 2020 and 2021 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). The year-over-year comparisons were easy in the first half of 2021 - especially in March and April. However, sales will likely be down year-over-year for the remainder of 2021 - since the selling season was delayed in 2020. And on inventory: note that completed inventory (3rd graph in previous post) is near record lows, but inventory under construction is closer to normal. This graph shows the months of supply by stage of construction. The inventory of completed homes for sale was at 36 thousand in July, just above the record low of 33 thousand in March, April and May 2021. That is about 0.6 months of completed supply (just above the record low). The inventory of new homes under construction is at 3.8 months - slightly above the normal level. However, a record 105 thousand homes have not been started - about 1.8 months of supply - about double the normal level.

A few Comments on July New Home Sales - New home sales for July were reported at 708,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). Sales for the previous three months were revised up, combined. This was somewhat above consensus expectations for July, but still down 27.2% year-over-year - since sales increased sharply following the early months of the pandemic. The new home sales rate is now slightly below the pre-pandemic level of around 740 thousand (the three months previous to pandemic). Earlier: New Home Sales Increase to 708,000 Annual Rate in July.  This graph shows new home sales for 2020 and 2021 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). The year-over-year comparisons were easy in the first half of 2021 - especially in March and April. However, sales will likely be down year-over-year for the remainder of 2021 - since the selling season was delayed in 2020. And on inventory: note that completed inventory (3rd graph in previous post) is near record lows, but inventory under construction is closer to normal. This graph shows the months of supply by stage of construction. The inventory of completed homes for sale was at 36 thousand in July, just above the record low of 33 thousand in March, April and May 2021. That is about 0.6 months of completed supply (just above the record low). The inventory of new homes under construction is at 3.8 months - slightly above the normal level. However, a record 105 thousand homes have not been started - about 1.8 months of supply - about double the normal level.

Las Vegas Visitor Authority for July: Convention Attendance N/A, Visitor Traffic Down 10% Compared to 2019 From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: July 2021 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics: July marked the strongest visitation month since the pandemic began as the destination hosted 3.3M visitors, up 11.2% MoM and down ‐10.4% from July 2019.  Hotel occupancy continued to ramp up, exceeding 79% (up 3.5 pts MoM, down ‐11.7 pts vs. July 2019), as Weekend occupancy came in at 88.1% (down ‐1.3 pts MoM) while Midweek occupancy increased to 74.6% (up 3.7 pts MoM, down ‐14.1 pts vs. July 2019.)ADR came in very strong during the month, reaching $152, surpassing last month by 19%, and RevPAR beat comparable 2019 monthly levels for the first time as it reached $120.79, up +24.4% MoM and 4.5% ahead of July 2019. The first graph shows visitor traffic for 2019 (blue), 2020 (orange) and 2021 (red). Visitor traffic was down 10.4% compared to the same month in 2019. There had been no convention traffic since March 2020, but there were a few conventions in June (data not available yet). I'll add a graph of convention traffic once convention data is available.

Personal Income increased 1.1% in July, Spending increased 0.3% - The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays, July 2021 report: Personal income increased $225.9 billion (1.1 percent) in July according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $198.0 billion (1.1 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $42.2 billion (0.3 percent).Real DPI increased 0.7 percent in July and Real PCE decreased 0.1 percent; goods decreased 1.6 percent and services increased 0.6 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.4 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent.The July PCE price index increased 4.2 percent year-over-year and the July PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 3.6 percent year-over-year. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through July 2021 (2012 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE. Personal income was above expectations, and personal spending was at expectations, and the increase in PCE was at expectations.

August Vehicle Sales Forecast: "Light-Vehicle Sales to Continue Downward Spiral" --From WardsAuto: August U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales to Continue Downward Spiral (pay content).  Low inventories and supply issues (microchips) are impacting sales. This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for August (Red). The Wards forecast of 14.1 million SAAR, would be down about 4% from last month, and down 7.5% from a year ago (sales were recovering in July 2020 from the depths of the pandemic).

 Durable-Goods Orders Dropped Slightly in July as Supply Constraints Continue – WSJ - Orders for cars, appliances and other durable goods decreased slightly in July, as manufacturers continued to grapple with shortages in parts and labor and confront higher material costs. New orders for products meant to last at least three years decreased 0.1% to a seasonally adjusted $257.2 billion in July as compared with June, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had estimated a 0.5% decline. Orders increased 0.8% in June from the prior month, unchanged from the initial estimate for the month. Demand for durable goods has increased in 13 of the past 15 months. The overall number was hurt by a 48.9% decline between June and July on new orders for nondefense aircraft and parts, a category that is often volatile. Low business and retail inventories have translated to increased demand for manufacturers, but supply-chain issues continue to constrain production and delay some shipments. The Delta variant of Covid-19, which started its surge earlier this summer, presents another threat. New orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft—so-called core capital-goods, a closely watched proxy for business investment—were unchanged in July compared with the previous month. “While the manufacturing sector continues to grapple with supply-chain issues, workforce challenges and soaring prices, it is hard not to look at the latest durable-goods data—nondefense aircraft aside—as anything but positive news,” said Chad Moutray, chief economist for the National Association of Manufacturers. “The trend line remains very positive, including new records.” Mr. Moutray pointed to a 0.7% increase in new durable-goods orders, if transportation equipment is excluded. He also highlighted strengthened demand in July for motor vehicles and parts, up 5.8%.

Richmond Fed Manufacturing: Activity Improved in August Despite Decline in Index Fifth District manufacturing activity showed continued growth in August, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index fell to 9 from 27 in July and indicates expansion.The complete data series behind today's Richmond Fed manufacturing report, which dates from November 1993, is available here.Here is a snapshot of the complete Richmond Fed Manufacturing Composite series. Here is an excerpt from the latest Richmond Fed manufacturing overview: Fifth District manufacturing activity improved in August, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index declined from 27 in July to 9 in August but remained in expansionary territory, as all three component indexes — shipments, new orders, and employment — decreased but remained positive. However, several manufacturers reported deteriorating local business conditions. Survey contacts also noted that lead times continued to increase and inventories remained low. Overall, they were optimistic that conditions would improve in the next six months. Link to ReportHere is a somewhat closer look at the index since the turn of the century.

Kansas City Fed Survey: Manufacturing Strength Continues in August -The latest index came in at 29, down 1 from last month's 30, indicating expansion in August. The future outlook increased to 36 this month from 33. Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.Quarterly data for this indicator dates back to 1995, but monthly data is only available from 2001.Here is an excerpt from the latest report:Tenth District manufacturing activity continued at a strong pace, and expectations for future activity remained solid (Chart 1, Tables 1 & 2). The monthly index of prices paid for raw materials continued to increase for a majority of firms in August and the index of prices received for finished goods rose to a new survey high. Price indexes vs. a year ago expanded near record levels. Moving forward, district manufacturing firms expected materials prices and finished goods prices to continue to rise over the next six months. [Full report here] Here is a snapshot of the complete Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 353,000 --The DOL reported: In the week ending August 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 353,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 348,000 to 349,000. The 4-week moving average was 366,500, a decrease of 11,500 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020 when it was 225,500. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 377,750 to 378,000.This does not include the 117,709 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was up from 108,081 the previous week.The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 366,500.The previous week was revised up. Regular state continued claims decreased to 2,862,000 (SA) from 2,865,000 (SA) the previous week.Note: There are an additional 5,004,753 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that increased from 4,900,047 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance. And an additional 3,793,956 receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) down from 3,846,045.  Weekly claims were slightly above the consensus forecast.

Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes Increased in 46 States in July - From the Philly Fed: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for July 2021. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 48 states, decreased in one state, and remained stable in one, for a three-month diffusion index of 94. Additionally, in the past month, the indexes increased in 46 states, decreased in one state, and remained stable in three, for a one-month diffusion index of 90. For comparison purposes, the Philadelphia Fed has also developed a similar coincident index for the entire United States. The Philadelphia Fed’s U.S. index increased 1.9 percent over the past three months and 0.8 percent in July.Note: These are coincident indexes constructed from state employment data. The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing by production workers, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. This map was all redduring the worst of the Pandemic and also at the worst of the Great Recession. The map is almost all positive on a three month basis. And here is a graph is of the number of states with one month increasing activity according to the Philly Fed. This graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged).In July, 48 states had increasing activity including minor increases.

Cutting unemployment insurance benefits did not boost job growth: July state jobs data show a widespread recovery - The July state employment and unemployment data released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that the strong job growth reported earlier this month in the national jobs data was widespread throughout the country. And, notably, the states that chose not to cut pandemic unemployment insurance (UI) benefits have experienced, on average, greater job growth in recent months than states that cut benefits to unemployed workers. Over the last three months (from April to July), all but three states—Alaska, Kentucky, and Wyoming—added jobs, with particularly strong growth in Hawaii (4.0%), Vermont (3.5%), North Carolina (2.7%), Arizona (2.6%), and New Mexico (2.5%). Figure A shows each state’s July unemployment rate and the change in employment over the past three months, 12 months, and since February 2020 (the month before the recession.) Key takeaways:

• The July state employment and unemployment data released Friday showed that strong job growth is widespread throughout the country, including in leisure and hospitality and state and local governments.
• States that chose not to cut federal pandemic unemployment insurance (UI) benefits have, on average, experienced greater job growth since April than the 26 largely Republican-controlled states that cut benefits to unemployed workers.
• Leisure and hospitality employment has grown at a quicker rate in states that preserved full UI benefits than in those that cut federal assistance.
• However, with a nationwide jobs shortfall of between 6.6 and 9.1 million jobs, the economic recovery is still far from complete. Policymakers at every level of government should take action to help speed the recovery.

Nursing Homes Keep Losing Workers - Nursing homes have a long-term care problem: 18 months after the Covid-19 crisis began, their staffs are still shrinking.While employment in nearly every occupation has been recovering from the shock of the pandemic, the number of people working in nursing homes and other long-term-care facilities has continued to drop, according to federal data.Nursing homes and residential-care facilities employed three million people in July, down 380,000 workers from February 2020, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Industry employment has fallen every month except one since the World Health Organization declared Covid-19 a global pandemic in March 2020. By contrast, job losses in the leisure and hospitality industry, another hard-hit sector, began reversing in May last year, and the industry has recovered almost 80% of the jobs that were lost in the first months of the pandemic.“I’ve been in the industry for 40 years and I’ve never seen it this bad,” said Terry Robertson, chief executive of Josephine Caring Community, a long-term-care facility in Stanwood, Wash.Turnover has been twice as high as it was before the pandemic, he said. “We turned down 138 admissions from hospitals last month because we didn’t have the staff to open another unit,” he said.Nursing-home staff have quit—and stayed away—because of the pay, burnout and fear of Covid-19, administrators and workers say. Enhanced unemployment benefits and competing job opportunities also have played a role, they say. Sheena Bumpas, a nursing assistant in a dementia unit at a long-term-care facility in Duncan, Okla., said staffing shortages create a cycle that wears down workers who enter or remain in the field.“When you’re short on people, you have to work extra because someone has to be there to take care of the residents. You work and you work and after a while you just get burned out,” said Ms. Bumpas, who has been in her job for 19 years and is the vice chair of the National Association of Health Care Assistants, a nonprofit professional association.Industry experts worry worker shortfalls will lead to a deterioration in care.“We see staffing shortages as a safety hazard and a quality problem,” said Ari Houser, a statistician who manages the AARP Public Policy Institute’s nursing-home data dashboard.Research shows that when homes are understaffed, the care of residents can suffer as they wait longer to be fed, brought to bathrooms or receive responses to their calls for assistance. A study last year found that facilities with higher levels of nursing staff tended to have fewer Covid-19 outbreaks and related deaths.

Cruise passenger dies of COVID-19 amid outbreak on ship - - A cruise passenger died of the coronavirus after an outbreak of COVID-19 on a Carnival Cruise Line ship.The person boarded the Carnival Vista cruise ship in Texas on July 31 and the ship headed to Belize, where the person received medical treatment. She was later evacuated to Tulsa, where she ultimately died.“We are very sorry to hear about the death of a guest who sailed on Carnival Vista,” the company said in a statement.“The guest almost certainly did not contract COVID on our ship, and she was assisted with expert medical care on board and was ultimately evacuated from Belize after we provided a resource to her family,” the company added.The New York Times reported the victim was a 77-year-old woman from Oklahoma and she died Aug. 14.Belize’s Tourism Board released a statement assuring its citizens strict protocols were followed with the victim and no positive COVID-19 passengers are allowed in the country without special permission.“A recent passenger onboard a Carnival ship presented health difficulties due to COVID-19. Based on these protocols, the passenger was allowed to disembark to receive the urgent care required and was subsequently medically evacuated via air ambulance,” the board stated. This is the first time a positive COVID-19 individual was granted an emergency request to enter the country since cruises began again. There were 27 people on board the ship who tested positive for the virus, including 26 crew members and the one passenger who died. All individuals were vaccinated, the Belize Tourism Board has said.

Hawaii’s governor discourages travelers from visiting as virus rates surge in the state. -Facing a surge of Covid-19 cases that is straining hospitals, Gov. David Ige of Hawaii asked tourists to stay away. “It’s not a good time to travel to the islands,” he said. “The visitors who choose to come to the island will not have the typical kind of holiday that they expect to get when they visit Hawaii.” The governor’s remarks came at a news conference on Monday after the island of Oahu said it was imposing tighter restrictions on gatherings. Starting Aug. 25, indoor gatherings of more than 10 people and outdoor gatherings of more than 25 will be prohibited in Oahu, Mayor Rick Blangiardi said. The new rule will apply for at least 28 days and will affect all events, including those that are professionally organized, a change from previous restrictions. “We really thought we saw the light at the end of the tunnel,” Mr. Blangiardi said at a news conference. “But over the last several weeks, cases have surged and the Delta variant has proved to be more than formidable.” The governor said he fully supported the actions that Oahu had taken. Since July 1, Hawaii has experienced a sharp rise in new cases. The state’s seven-day average of new case reports peaked at 729 a day on Aug. 19, more than double the state’s previous high last fall, according to a New York Times database. In the past two weeks, new cases increased by 37 percent in Honolulu County, and hospitalizations more than doubled. Mr. Blangiardi said that after extensive conversations with state health officials and health care providers, it was determined that large gatherings were the main cause of the rapid communal spread recently. The restrictions mean that athletic events at the University of Hawaii will proceed without spectators, and that large concerts at the Waikiki Shell will be canceled. The mayor said that people would still be able to hold weddings, funerals and luaus, as long as they adhered to crowd limits. Restaurants will continue to operate at 50 percent of capacity, and youth sports can finish their seasons as long as parents spread themselves out as spectators.

Amid Pandemic-Driven Liquid Oxygen Shortage, Orlando Asks Residents to Slash Water Use or Face Boil Alert - As Florida’s Republican-led Board of Education warned school districts they would face fines for not complying with Gov. Ron DeSantis’ ban on mask mandates, leaders in the state’s fourth-largest city issued a plea that vividly illustrated the consequences of the governor’s refusal to follow public health guidance. On Friday, the state Board of Education ordered school boards in Alachua and Broward counties to disclose the salaries of all their members so that the DeSantis administration can begin withholding 1/12 of their pay each month. The move is retaliation for the districts’ implementation of mandatory mask requirements for all staff and students in defiance of DeSantis‘ ban on such sweeping mandates. The Republican administration accuses the districts of running afoul of a rule requiring public schools to “allow for a parent or legal guardian of the student to opt-out the student from wearing a face covering or mask.” State Education Commissioner Richard Corcoran explained in a press release that “these are the initial consequences to [the districts’] intentional refusal to follow state law and state rule to purposefully and willingly violate the rights of parents..” In another unintended consequence of Florida’s largely preventable Covid-19 surge, Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer and the Orlando Utilities Commission on Friday urgently appealed to residents of the state’s fourth-largest city to dramatically cut back on their water usage due to a pandemic-driven shortage of liquid oxygen, an essential component of water purification. According to The Orlando Sentinel:If commercial and residential customers are unable to reduce water usage quickly and sufficiently, Orlando Utilities Commission may issue a system-wide alert for boiling water needed for drinking and cooking. Without reductions in water usage, a boil-water alert would come within a week, utility officials said. Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer asked residents to immediately stop watering their lawns, washing their cars, and using pressure washers. Landscape irrigation consumes about 40% of the water provided by OUC. “This is another unfortunate impact of the pandemic continuing to surge in our community,” Dyer, a Democrat, said at a news conference. “And it’s another result of what happens when residents do not get vaccinated, become critically ill, and need dire medical support and treatment.”

Kentucky high court clears way for legislature to rein in governor's COVID-19 emergency powers -The Kentucky Supreme Court on Saturday issued a ruling clearing the way for several bills limiting Gov. Andy Beshear’s (D) coronavirus-related emergency powers after telling a circuit court that it should not have issued an injunction against the legislation.One of the bills that took aim at Beshear’s emergency powers would require the Kentucky legislature to vote to extend the governor’s COVID-19 regulations and emergency orders or have them face expiration after 30 days, the Louisville Courier Journal reported.Beshear was able to secure an injunction from Franklin Circuit Court blocking that legislation in March.However, the state’s high court said that the complaint by Beshear “does not present a substantial legal question that would necessitate staying the effectiveness of the legislation” and argued that bills had been passed lawfully, the Lexington Herald Leader reported.As a result, the court told Franklin Circuit Court to dissolve its injunction, clearing the way for the legislation to be implemented.In a statement to The Hill, Crystal Staley, a spokeswoman for Beshear, said that “the court’s order will dissolve Kentucky’s entire state of emergency for the COVID-19 pandemic. It either eliminates or puts at risk large amounts of funding, steps we have taken to increase our health care capacity, expanded meals for children and families, measures to fight COVID-19 in long-term care facilities, worker’s compensation for front-line workers who contract COVID-19 as well as the ability to fight price gouging.” She noted that the governor “has had the courage to make unpopular decisions in order to keep Kentuckians safe — the court has removed much of his ability to do so moving forward.”

 Michigan Governor Whitmer proposes to use federal pandemic relief money to fund the police --Democratic Party Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer announced on August 16 that she is proposing to spend $75 million of federal pandemic relief funds on local police departments throughout the state as part of a proposed MI Safe Communities framework. The governor outlined the plan at a press conference held at the Farwell Recreation Center on the east side of Detroit and said, “People are scared. They’re afraid to pump their gas or merge onto the highway, pull up to a red light, drive to work, drop their kids off at school. That’s not right, and we cannot and will not accept this. No one should feel unsafe as they go about their lives.” A press release from the governor’s office said that the proposal is to “invest in local police, get illegal guns off the street, and fund expanded opportunities in jobs, education, and the justice system,” with a portion of the money provided to Michigan under the American Rescue Plan. The purpose of the media event was to promote Whitmer’s proposal within the Michigan Legislature, which is dominated by the Republican Party including politicians who collaborated with armed protestors who stormed the state capitol building in April. At the press conference, Whitmer also said, “We are working together to address the crime increases we’ve seen across the state and across the country.” She said statewide crime increased by 12 percent and murders increased by 36 percent last year. Whitmer was joined on the platform by other leading Democrats including Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, US Representative Debbie Dingell, State Representative Tyrone Carter and Wayne County Prosecutor Kim Worthy as well as Detroit Police Department Interim Chief James White, all of whom expressed support for Whitmer’s proposal.

 Study finds praising middle school students improves on-task behavior by up to 70% - Students speaking out of turn, texting, telling rude jokes, falling asleep in class, making distracting gestures — managing these behaviors is all in a day’s work for many middle school teachers, who shepherd adolescents through some of their most trying years. Add in the disruptions of a global pandemic to exacerbate student anxiety and depression, and this year middle school teachers may find themselves with more challenging behaviors to address than ever before. But a recent BYU paper points out the power of focusing on the positive in sixth through eighth grade. The study found that when middle school teachers praised students at least as often as they reprimanded them, class-wide on-task behavior improved by 60–70%. Students at high risk for emotional and behavioral disorders were also more likely to be on task, and their classroom marks went up by a full letter grade, compared to high-risk students in classrooms where teachers rarely offered praise. While there was no magic ratio, when teachers praised students more often than correcting them, or even stopped reprimanding completely, behavior improved dramatically — every bit of praise counts. “With middle school students, we really want to emphasize praising over reprimanding,” said BYU David O. McKay School of Education professor Paul Caldarella. “Especially if you have a student who is depressed, anxious, angry or dealing with any kind of emotional difficulty, the more you can praise and the less you reprimand, the better outcomes you’re likely to see.” Caldarella and his colleagues Ross Larsen and Leslie Williams at BYU and Howard Wills at the University of Kansas conducted the study as a follow up to their previous research in elementary school classrooms, where they similarly found that the more teachers praised than reprimanded, the more students stayed on task. However, in the new research they found that the results were even more profound in middle schools, with praise producing double the improvement in on-task behaviors compared to elementary classrooms.

Another Florida school district will require masks, bucking DeSantis's orders -- Leon County Schools, home to the capital city of Tallahassee, is set to become another school district in Florida to institute a mask mandate for students that doesn’t give parents the choice to opt out, bucking an order from Gov. Ron DeSantis (R). Rocky Hanna, superintendent for Leon County Schools, announced Sunday in a video on Facebook that the district will require masks for students from pre-K to eighth grade starting Monday. “I am aware that I am the first elected school superintendent to take such action. I am also aware, fully aware, of the consequences I may suffer,” he said. “Governor, I do have an obligation to uphold the laws of the state of Florida,” he added in a direct message to DeSantis. “I have a greater obligation, however, to protect for the health, safety and welfare of the children in Tallahassee and Leon County.” Initially, Hanna said he had written to DeSantis's office a week before students returned to class earlier this month to ask for more “flexibility” in the governor’s order that allows parents to opt their children out of being required to wear face coverings in schools. “Local hospitalizations during the first week of August started to increase, and some of our children were beginning to fall ill from the delta variant of the COVID-19 virus,” he said. Hanna said he wanted more leeway to temporarily require masks for “students ages 5 to 11 in our elementary schools and our middle schools,” calling them the “most vulnerable because they're not yet eligible to become vaccinated.” But Hanna said he never received a response. Two days before school was set to start, he announced the district would require masks with a medical exemption option. That same day, Hanna said he “received a very harsh and threatening letter” from Florida Education Commissioner Richard Corcoran saying the new policy violated state law and that if the district moved forward, Hanna and “members of the Leon County school board would be held in violation and face the maximum penalties under the law.” As a result, Hanna said he and the board decided to open school with K-12 mask policy that included the medical exemption but also an “individual freedoms opt-out for parents who claimed the wearing of masks were an infringement of their parental rights.”

N.Y.C. will require shots for all education staff, including teachers and principals. --- All employees of New York City’s Department of Education — including teachers, principals, custodians and workers in the department’s central office — must get at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine by Sept. 27, without the option of submitting to weekly testing instead, Mayor Bill de Blasio said on Monday.The announcement was a major step in Mr. de Blasio’s effort to fully reopen the city’s school district, whose one million students make it the largest in the United States, next month, and a significant escalation of his push to vaccinate more New Yorkers.Mr. de Blasio has put reopening the city’s schools at the center of his plan to help New York recover from the pandemic. He is eager to reassure anxious parents and teachers that schools will be safe this year despite an increase in virus cases in the past two months linked to the Delta variant — especially given the decision not to offer students a remote-learning option.New York’s vaccine requirement affects about 148,000 education department workers. It is almost surely a harbinger of similar requirements for school districts, municipal employees, private businesses and federal agencies around the country following theFood and Drug Administration’s approval on Monday of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for those 16 and older.

The Coming School Opening Covid Train Wreck - Yves Smith -Our GM has thrown down a marker on what the fail will look like in the US, Covid-wise. Via e-mail: There is no conceivable way there will be school without mass infection. The most optimistic modelling I have seen, assuming masking and everything, project 30% of kids getting infected within 2 months. But without masks it will be 80% within 2 months. And with B.1.617.2 household attack rates are near-100%. Make that 50% with vaccines, that is still a total disaster. Especially where you have multigenerational households (and we all know who will be hit the hardest because of that factor, and vaccine uptake is very low there too). The only time we saw what truly uncontrolled mass infection looks like in a place with a high median age was in Bergamo early on in the pandemic. Even NYC only managed to infect 25% of the population, and that caused all-cause mortality to shoot up 900% and killed 0.35% of the population. Everywhere else we had one of two situations:

• 1. In countries with high median age, there was some form of mitigation or people were aware of what is happening and retreated voluntarily, because they could, as high-median age countries are also generally better off economically
• 2. Really high attack rates above 50% were only seen where populations are young, in Latin America, Africa and India. Because young populations make that more tolerable while young populations are also found in poor countries where people cannot shield.

That still resulted in truly catastrophic situations, e.g. Guayaquil in Ecuador in March/April 2020 (where they had corpses out on the streets bring-out-your-dead style because too many were dying and they could not bury them), Iquitos in April/May 2020, Manaus (twice), India, etc. But we have not really seen 50-70% of the population getting infected at once in an area with a median age of 40. It is anyone’s guess what that looks like, the higher-order effects are unpredictable, all sorts of things can break down without anyone expecting it. The hope is that the vaccines will blunt the impact, but that is not guaranteed at all. Viral evolution has actually accelerated — we are up to AY.25 now, it is picking up mutations in the Nsp and ORF proteins at a crazy rate, and nobody can figure out what is happening. Now of course, the immediate answer is there won’t be school, or there will only intermittently be school. That’s already started. From the Montgomery Advertiser, Pike County first of Alabama districts to temporarily close schools due to COVID-19 cases: The Pike County School system in Troy announced it would cancel classes on Friday to deep clean its buildings amid a spike in COVID-19 cases, largely among its youngest students.Here’s the problem. As with Pike County, the pressure to open up schools is so great that they will be closed for short or longer term only after the contagion horse has left the barn and is in the next county. Notice the part where the biggest cohort positive cases was pre-K to third grade, and the additional 124 told to quarantine almost certainly had a significant representation in this age group.Now….drumroll…kids 8 years old and younger quarantining? As in isolated in single room or part of the house for 11 days, meals delivered outside their doors and dirty dishes retrieved, plus a bathroom set aside for their exclusive use? I know of only two American adults who did a full bore quarantine, and one already lived alone. We don’t do quarantines in America. So GM is right about 100% household attack rates before you get to any possible vaccination blunting. How far infections advance in schools before they move back to online learning is anyone’s guess. The one thing, perversely, that will favor schools being closed faster is that word has gotten out that children are winding up in hospitals with Delta, which wasn’t the case with wild type. So even though many parents, all things being equal, would prefer schools to be open, the possibility of having a severely ill child in most cases will more than offset that. And that’s before you get to evidence suggesting kids are also more susceptible to long Covid than adults

'This will be a tough year': Thousands of kids are in COVID-19 quarantine across the US, and school has just begun -Just days into the new school year, thousands of kids are under quarantine in public school districts after being exposed to COVID-19. Cases and hospitalizations among children are on the rise, and the highly contagious delta variant of the coronavirus makes up about 90% of new infections among kids, according to experts. Children under 12 are ineligible for COVID-19 vaccines, making schools a potentially dangerous environment.While parents and school officials battle over back-to-school safety measures, schools are overwhelmed with the task of keeping kids safe while attending class in person.In the past week:

• More than 10,000 students and staff in Hillsborough County Public Schools in Florida have been isolated or quarantined, ABC News reported.
• Nearly 1,000 students and staff in Nashville, Tennessee, were in quarantine or isolation.
• New Orleans School District saw 299 active COVID-19 cases and more than 3,000 students and staff in quarantine, according to district data.
• Ware County in Georgia closed all its public schools after a "sharp increase" in cases. More than 800 students and faculty are quarantining, outlet News4JAX reported.
• 20,000 students are quarantining across Mississippi, a public health official announced.
• Schools in Texas counties shut down because of a shortage of staff members.

In Texas this week, at least four school districts where masking is optional have temporarily closed because of outbreaks on campus. School administrators in other parts of the state defy orders against mask mandates and require students to mask up. The district in Gorman, Texas, was supposed to start school this week but delayed for a week because there were too many cases among students and staff. “This decision was not made lightly or quickly, and it was made with the best interest of all students, staff and parents’ safety in mind,” Gorman Superintendent Mike Winter said.Two other school districts in the state, in Bloomberg and Waskom, shut down temporarily after the first week of classes because too many staff members were out with COVID-19. Iraan-Sheffield Independent School District in West Texas shut down Monday for two weeks, so students and staff could quarantine. Hillsborough County Public Schools in Florida announced that nearly 6,000 students and staff members were out because of quarantine, necessitating an emergency board meeting to discuss how to prevent further spread, including putting mandatory masking on the table. Nearly 1,400 students and staff reported positive coronavirus tests since school started Aug. 10, according to district data. The district has more than 200,000 students. Mississippi State Epidemiologist Paul Byers said Tuesday there are about 20,000 students under quarantine statewide. That amounts to 4.5% of the state's public school population. “These disruptions ... are going to continue for a while," Byers said.

Unsafe school reopenings in US fuel surge of COVID-19 among children -The reopening of schools throughout the United States is fueling a massive surge of COVID-19 cases among children. The US reported 180,000 child COVID-19 cases in the week ending August 19, a 50 percent increase in just one week, according to the latest report from the American Academy of Pediatrics. There were 120,000 child cases the prior week, and less than 10,000 just two months ago. Even worse, 24 children died of COVID-19 in the same period, twice the previous record set in the week ending August 5. The reopening of schools, more than 60 percent of which have already resumed classes, has led to outbreaks in K-12 institutions throughout the country. Metro Atlanta school districts have reported thousands of cases of COVID-19 among students and staff just weeks into the school year. Gwinnett County, Georgia’s largest school district, reported over 800 active cases of the virus Friday. That is up from 470 active cases in the district last week. COVID-19 cases have exploded in Mississippi schools. Nearly 6,000 students have tested positive for the disease, 30 times more than in the previous semester. There have been 1,496 infections among teachers and staff, a six-fold increase over last semester. Within less than a week after the August 11 reopening in New Mexico, schools in Albuquerque, Belen, Carlsbad, Los Lunas and Roswell have had major outbreaks. According to the state Environment Department, 109 schools around the state recorded at least two COVID-19 cases, including students, staff and faculty. In the four days since the Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD), the second largest district in the US with over 600,000 students, reopened last Monday, outbreaks have taken place throughout the city. According to data released Thursday by the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health, 118 students and staff tested positive in the 24 hours from Tuesday to Wednesday morning. Of these, 107 were K-12 students, who were on campuses during that time. The growth of COVID-19 cases among children is only the most visible expression of the spread of the pandemic throughout the country. Daily new cases have reached 150,000, a 10-fold increase over the past two months. In states throughout the country, hospitals are filled to capacity as the number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients hit 85,000 last week, a six-fold increase since June. And most troubling of all, over 1,000 people died on Friday, a quadrupling of the daily deaths compared to two months ago.

California school reopenings have already caused thousands of COVID-19 infections - Less than two weeks after the full reopening of California public schools, thousands of students and staff have tested positive for COVID-19 and tens of thousands have gone into quarantine. Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD) opened on August 16 and has already recorded 2,002 cases. Oakland Unified School District (OUSD) has reported 214 cases since opening on August 9, with 12 classes, or approximately 370 students, placed on quarantine. Elk Grove Unified School District (EGUSD) has reported 242 positive COVID-19 cases and 1,485 students on quarantine since opening August 13. Just over a week after students returned to classrooms, 60 students and educators in Turlock Unified School District tested positive, with over 500 confirmed close contacts. Despite case rates far in excess of those seen at the start of last school year, there is no discussion among school administration or state and local government about a return to online education. Most schools opened under the California Public Health Department (CPHD) guidelines for education. These guidelines include universal masking for students, as well as vaccination or weekly surveillance testing of staff. Requirements for hand washing facilities and daily cleaning are included. There are also toothless “recommendations” for improved ventilation, which have not been implemented in most classrooms across the state. What is not included are any requirements for physical distancing. Following the determinations of the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), CPHD claims, “Recent evidence indicates that in-person instruction can occur safely without minimum physical distancing requirements when other mitigation strategies (e.g., masking) are implemented.” This means that students, many of whom are too young to qualify for vaccination, are returning to overcrowded and poorly ventilated classrooms with only masks for protection. The CPHD also has provided confusing guidance for quarantine. When a student reports a case of COVID-19 to the school, quarantine is required for all “close contacts” of the student who is ill. A “close contact” is someone who has spent more than 15 minutes within six feet of the infected person over a period of 24 hours. As physical distancing is no longer being enforced, the “close contacts” of an infected person can easily be an entire class. A quarantined “close contact” must stay home for 10 days. Those who test positive must remain home 10 days or until they are without fever for 24 hours, whichever is longer. Either may also return to school after six days with two negative COVID-19 tests.

Pike County first of Alabama districts to temporarily close schools due to COVID-19 cases - The Pike County School system in Troy announced it would cancel classes on Friday to deep clean its buildings amid a spike in COVID-19 cases, largely among its youngest students. In a social media post Monday evening, the district outlined the plan to cancel Friday's classes, keep Monday as a virtual learning day as planned and have students return on Aug. 24. The district did not address concerns from social media users about the decision to wait until Friday to take action. The district reported 45 positive cases among its five schools, with two of those cases among adults, according to data posted Aug. 16 by the district on its website. The largest percentage of positive cases were among pre-K through third grade students, representing about half of the total. In addition to the positive cases, another 124 students and two staff members were in quarantine. The district opened Aug. 9 with a mask mandate in place. It is hosting a vaccine clinic for students on Sept. 2. Across the county, 29% have been fully vaccinated — compared to the state's 35%. Pike's rate is slightly higher among the school-aged group, with 33% of 12- to 17-year-olds fully vaccinated, according to data compiled from the Centers for Disease Control. While Pike County has opted to share its case rate data, other districts have not. The state's school dashboard stopped updating at the end of the last school year and is being revamped. It is expected to be online shortly after Labor Day, a spokesperson with the state Department of Education said. Other large districts, such as Birmingham City and Mobile County, are posting their cases numbers. Montgomery Public Schools will post their weekly case numbers, starting next Monday. Pike Road Schools announced it would start doing so on Aug. 23.Pike Road and Montgomery Public Schools have mask mandates in place; Autauga and Elmore County schools do not. As thousands of students across the country are sent home to quarantine not even a month into the new school year, more Alabama districts are likely to close their doors in the coming weeks. Districts in several southern states have announced closures, including at least one in Georgia, Kentucky, Indiana and four in Texas.

Mass outbreak in Texas schools as hospitals are overwhelmed - An entire school district in Texas, Iraan-Sheffield ISD, was closed last Monday for two weeks amid a frightening rise in coronavirus cases in the area. Since most Texas districts reopened less than two weeks ago, schools across the state have recorded massive increases in cases, while hospitals were already filled to the brim. On Tuesday, 199 new deaths were reported in the state, and 54,222 people have died during the pandemic as a whole. Probable cases are estimated to have already reached January 2021 levels, according to data from the Texas Department of State Health Services. As of last week, North Texas had run out of pediatric ICU beds due to a surge in hospitalizations of children, disproving the narrative by the media and political establishment, that kids cannot fall severely ill from Covid. Across the country, the pandemic has surged past 150,000 new cases per day, and the situation will likely become much worse as schools continue to open across the country. School reopenings have fueled surges among children in states across the country, including New Mexico, Mississippi, Georgia, California, Florida, and others. In Iraan-Sheffield ISD, one quarter of the staff and 16 percent of students were infected or exposed to Coronavirus after just five days of classes. The school was postponed until August 30, with no virtual classes. Iraan, a tiny oilfield town, had a population of 1,150 in 2019 according to the US Census Bureau. Out of 119 people tested in the county, 50 tested positive, a 42 percent positivity rate. Hospitals are few and far between in rural Texas, further exacerbating an already untenable situation. The single hospital in the area, Iraan General Hospital, has 14 beds, with the next closest hospital being at least 100 miles away. At least one patient has already been airlifted out-of-state due to the massive delay in obtaining beds. One of the most recent victims of the virus in Iraan was Sammy Balderas, who died last Thursday after being airlifted out of the town to San Angelo. His wife and 9-year-old son were quarantined, and his wife tested positive for the virus. The lack of available hospital beds has been worsened by numerous closures and threatened closures of hospitals. A hospital in Houston which treated around 500 patients a week abruptly closed on January 18. Hundreds of rural hospitals across the country are at immediate risk of closure. Nationwide, 81 million in the US live in areas with low availability to health services. The Medical Center Hospital, the hospital in Iraan, announced it was increasing its requests for beds from surrounding areas. “Our friends in Iraan, it almost seems like the entire town of Iraan has COVID right now. They’ve got a lot of sick folks down there,” MCH CEO Russel Tippin said. Many residents are reportedly driving themselves hundreds of miles to receive care.

Five Mississippi children killed by COVID-19; communities beg for help - Another Mississippi child died from COVID-19 complications this weekend, adding to the four other pediatric deaths since the virus came into the state in March 2020, the health department confirmed Monday.A Facebook post from the Smith County Reformer, a long-time Mississippi publication, said Sunday a prayer rally was held for 13 year-old Smith County student Mkayla Robinson, noting she'd died from coronavirus-related complications.On the steps in front of Raleigh High School on Sunday, Pastor Ronald Van Wilbon cried out, "save our babies.""We're told every day that this new delta (variant) is attacking babies and we can see that it's true," he said. "We cannot afford to continue to lose children, the price is too high. We are grieving the life of a 13-year-old baby that has left a mother, a father, two little brothers, a family and classmates behind due to COVID-19." Paul Harrison, Raleigh High School Lion Pride Marching Band director, wrote in a Saturday Facebook post that Mkayla, an eighth grader, was the perfect student."Every teacher loved her and wanted 30 more just like her," the post read. "Please pray for Raleigh Junior High, the band, and especially the family as they deal with this."Smith County, with a population of around 16,000, has recorded 2,012 COVID-19 cases and 96 related deaths. As of Monday, the Smith County School District reported since the start of school on Aug. 6, 78 students have tested positive for the coronavirus, with a total of 479 students across four schools in quarantine. Eleven of the district's teachers and assistants have the virus and 23 are quarantined.

Southern California teachers return to school to find rat-infested classrooms -- Teachers at Schurr High School in Montebello, an eastern suburb of Los Angeles, returned to their classrooms to prepare for the first day of classes on Monday, August 16. In the lead-up to reopening across the Montebello Unified School District, whose student body is mostly Hispanic and working class, district officials boasted of work which had been undertaken to prepare campuses for a “safe” return to in-person learning. The school district’s social media pages were filled with photos and videos of workers painting classrooms and deep-cleaning bathrooms and walkways. One district tweet stated, “Wonderful work being done preparing for a safe return!” Instead, returning teaches found that their classrooms had rat feces covering the floors and desks. The facilities reeked from dead and decomposing rat cadavers, and there were active nests in storage cabinets. Teacher Al Cueva told the Los Angeles Times that he “could hear rats running around in the walls and ceiling.” After teachers confronted district officials over the ghastly conditions of their classrooms, parents of nearly 2,600 students were emailed late on Friday, August 13, that Schurr High School will remain closed for several more weeks. The school, which was also closed to in-person learning last year, will continue with students on remote independent study programs. Teachers also voiced outrage over malfunctioning heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems in a building, where most classrooms do not have windows. The lack of ventilation magnifies the threat of COVID-19 for students and teachers. In a statement to the Times, interim Superintendent Mark Skvarna admitted the obvious, declaring, “[T]he district should have done a better job of identifying the problem in the run-up to reopening.” He added that he “made the decision to close the school largely out of concern that there might be rodent droppings or other health hazards in the HVAC ducts.” Skvarna did not address the implications of malfunctioning HVAC systems in windowless classrooms during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Florida teacher with leukemia dies from COVID-19 after being forced to return to class - Kelly Peterson, a Florida elementary school teacher, died on Monday from complications due to COVID-19. She was 41 years old and had been undergoing treatment for leukemia. Kelly’s doctor had advised her not to be vaccinated. Peterson taught fifth grade math and science at Lake Shipp Elementary School in the Polk County Public Schools and contracted the virus after returning to the classroom on August 10. Dozens of tributes to the beloved teacher and condolences to her family were posted by coworkers and parents of students on social media recognizing Peterson as an “amazing” and “awesome” educator. Kelly’s sister Christy Peterson told KTVU, “Because her leukemia was so bad at this point, their concern was by getting the vaccine that potentially could put too much stress on her body.” Christy said her sister had considered going against the doctor’s orders and getting the vaccine before school started, but decided to hold off. “She had voiced concerns many times that if she contracted COVID, she was afraid that it would kill her, and unfortunately that’s what happened.” During the previous school year, Peterson had worked remotely, but was forced to return to in-person learning this year despite being immunocompromised. Christy Peterson told The Ledger, “With all the COVID cases this year and her medical situation, she should have been a virtual teacher this year. The school didn’t offer that. She did do everything she could to stay safe. She took all the precautions, always wore a mask, but, yes, in the end it wasn’t enough.” Polk County Public Schools, located approximately 50 miles southwest of Orlando, is the seventh-largest district in the state and does not have a mask mandate. After just one week into the new school year, 343 students and 198 staff in the district had verified or suspected cases of COVID-19 and 2,200 students and 137 staff had been quarantined.

Ohio University mandates vaccines for students, faculty and staff - Ohio State University on Tuesday announced it would be mandating COVID-19 vaccines for all students, faculty and staff in light of the Food and Drug Administration granting Pfizer's vaccine full approval.With Monday’s news that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has granted full approval to the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, Ohio State will now require every student, faculty and staff member to be vaccinated against COVID-19," university president Kristina M. Johnson said in a message to the campus community."The university is taking this step because vaccines are the safest and most effective form of protection against COVID-19. We are focused on enhancing the health and safety of our community," she added. "This step will increase our ability to support our students in continuing their educational experiences as well as help protect our current and the state’s future workforce."Individuals at Ohio State University will be required to have received at least their first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by Oct. 15, with the deadline for the second dose set for one month later on Nov. 15.According to Johnson's message, over 73 percent of the Ohio State University community has received at least one dose of a vaccine already. The reporting process for those who have already been vaccinated has yet to be announced.In July, Ohio's seven-day average for daily COVID-19 cases hovered around 250 a day, according to the Johns Hopkins COVID-19 tracker. As of Monday, the seven-day average has risen to just over 3,000. THe seven-day average of deaths has remained relatively low and was reported at zero on Monday.According to the Ohio Department of Health, 60 percent of Ohio's eligible population has received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine.

University of Iowa will not require masks or vaccinations as students begin fall semester amid a surge of Delta variant - Monday, August 23 marked the first day of classes at the University of Iowa in Iowa City, Iowa, with tens of thousands of incoming freshmen and returning students arriving on campus for in-person learning from all across the state, the country and internationally. This influx of students and the accompanying pre-semester activities, such as residence hall move-in, are being done with no mask mandate requirement from the school. While new university President Barbara Wilson has asked students to wear masks and get vaccinated, the rulings of the Iowa Board of Regents in regards to safety from the pandemic on campus are much more revealing. Earlier this summer, the Board declared that it was unlawful for the three largest universities in the state—University of Iowa, Iowa State, and Northern Iowa—to require mask mandates or proof of vaccination for students and faculty during the fall semester. As for the University of Iowa, it remains the only school in the Big Ten to not require a mask mandate in class. Social distancing will also not be enforced and classes will be filled to capacity with only classes containing 150 or more students to be held online. Perfunctory measures which do not hinder the spread of the airborne COVID-19 virus, like extra hand sanitizer and plexiglass shields, are being implemented along with a free vaccine clinic and free masks to be distributed around campus. Wilson noted in a recent interview that the school’s rulings regarding COVID-19 were “not a political issue, but a health issue.” When the University of Iowa announced its plans for the semester earlier in the month, over 500 employees (including hundreds of faculty) signed a petition to the Board of Regents pushing for more stringent policies to mitigate risk. The petition also asked for more online or hybrid teaching options for the fall given the rapid spread of the more infectious Delta variant. The Regents in response said they would only relent to those different teaching methods “when there is a legitimate business rationale that serves the best interest of the institution.” In other words, the decision to return to remote learning would only occur if the university loses profits in conjunction with the lives and health of its workforce. The effort to hide the immediate lethal threat of the Delta variant and COVID-19 in general from workers and students was apparent in the guidelines sent by the university to faculty regarding their ability to speak about masks and vaccinations in the classroom to students. The original guidelines called for teachers to only discuss these matters in explicit regards to a student’s health and not in any other capacity. It also stated that any faculty member discussing mask usage or vaccination would only be able to describe their own personal feelings regarding their own decision, not as a statement regarding the use of masks or vaccination in general. A flurry of angry responses from faculty citing this blatant restriction of free speech caused the guidelines to be taken down within only a few days. The university was forced to revise the guidelines and remove this section in the subsequent weeks.

Student researchers in University of California system vote to join United Auto Workers union -On August 5, the United Auto Workers (UAW) announced that the California Public Employment Relations Board (PERB) has verified that a majority of the 17,000 Student Researchers, spanning 10 UC campuses and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), have voted to unionize with the UAW-affiliated Student Researchers United (SRU). This marks the largest unionization drive of academic student employees in UAW’s history but represents a political dead-end for the UC student workers. The card signing campaign to unionize began in Fall 2020 and was completed on May 24 of this year when student researchers submitted over 10,000 signed union authorization cards to the California Public Employees Relations Board in Oakland, California. Student workers, like workers in many industries, have been facing an increasing cost of living coupled with stagnating wages. The cost of living in California for instance is among the highest in the United States, especially in the metropolitan areas of San Francisco, Los Angeles and San Diego, home to many of the state’s largest universities. Graduate instructors, who have been in the UAW for more than three decades, routinely make less than monthly rent on a local one-bedroom apartment. The increasingly precarious living conditions faced by student researchers and workers in other industries has undoubtedly been a driving force for the UC students to organize. Student researchers are extremely valuable to the UC system, as their labor secures more patents than any other university in the world and helps to bring in the billions of dollars in grant revenue needed for research. However, student researchers in California were not classified as employees of the UC system prior to 2017. This excluded them from collective bargaining, processing grievances, or even receiving workers’ compensation from the UC system if injured.

 COVID-19 is most transmissible 2 days before and 3 days after symptoms appear - New study also finds that infected individuals are more likely to be asymptomatic if they contracted the virus from someone who was asymptomatic. Each wave of the pandemic has underscored just how gravely contagious COVID-19 is, but there is less clarity among experts on exactly when—and to what extent—infected individuals are most likely to spread the virus.Now, a new study co-led by a Boston University School of Public Health (BUSPH) researcher has found that individuals infected with the virus are most contagious two days before, and three days after, they develop symptoms.Published in the journal JAMA Internal Medicine, the study also found that infected individuals were more likely to be asymptomatic if they contracted the virus from a primary case (the first infected person in an outbreak) who was also asymptomatic.“In previous studies, viral load has been used as an indirect measure of transmission,” says Dr. Leonardo Martinez, assistant professor of epidemiology at BUSPH, and who co-led the study with Dr. Yang Ge, research assistant in the Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics at the University of Georgia College of Public Health. “We wanted to see if results from these past studies, which show that that COVID cases are most transmissible a few days before and after symptom onset, could be confirmed by looking at secondary cases among close contacts.”

FDA warns that Ivermectin should not be used to treat COVID-19 --Ivermectin, a medication better known for treating parasite infestations, when it comes to the unfounded treatments for COVID-19, is perhaps the stepchild of the drug Hydroxychloroquine, which had been touted by then-President Donald Trump for its supposed ability to prevent and mitigate COVID-19 disease.However, unlike the ignominious end to the controversy over Hydroxychloroquine and COVID-19, the still unproven use of Ivermectin has persevered, especially across Latin America, where in the midst of unchecked coronavirus transmission, people desperate for any remedy have flocked to purchase the over-the-counter drug, which has been used for decades to treat farm animals and people infected with parasitic worms.Over the weekend, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) warned that Ivermectin was not an anti-viral drug, ahead of its call giving Pfizer’s mRNA COVID-19 vaccine full authorization. The drug remains unproven in preventing or reducing the risk of developing severe COVID-19. In an official tweet, the FDA wrote: “You are not a horse. You are not a cow. Seriously, y’all. Stop it.”The FDA’s cautioned against Ivermectin use on the heels of a statement released by the Mississippi State Department of Health after reports surfaced that an increasing number of people had turned to use the drug to prevent COVID-19 infection. One man was recently hospitalized in the state for ingesting livestock Ivermectin from a feed store. The state, which has only managed to vaccinate 37 percent of its citizens fully, has recently been battered by a massive wave of infection with the Delta variant. Ivermectin was discovered in 1975 and came into medical and veterinary use in the 1980s. It is one of the essential medicines on the World Health Organization (WHO) list and has FDA approval as an anti-parasitic agent. Though the drug, prescribed by a physician for appropriate indications, is fairly free of toxicity, it can be neurotoxic in large doses, leading to seizures or suppression in a person’s ability to breathe, possible loss of consciousness, coma and even death.

With F.D.A. approval for a Covid vaccine, the Pentagon and others add vaccine requirements -- Full federal approval for the Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus vaccine for those 16 and older is opening the way for institutions like the military, corporate employers, hospitals and school districts to announce vaccine mandates for their employees.Within hours of the announcement, the Pentagon, CVS, the State University of New York system and the New York City school system, among others, announced that they would enforce mandates they had prepared to carry out but had made contingent on the F.D.A.’s action.One of the first and largest to move ahead was the Pentagon. Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III had already received authorization from President Biden to mandate vaccines for all active-duty troops once the vaccine was fully approved, and he was moving swiftly to put the plans into action, said John F. Kirby, the Pentagon spokesman. The secretary will soon send specific vaccination guidelines to 1.4 million service members.Last month, Mr. Biden ordered that all federal employees and on-site contractors must be vaccinated against the coronavirus, or else submit to regular testing and other measures. The requirement applied to the 766,372 civilians working for the Defense Department, but not active-duty service members.The Defense Department’s website said that as of Aug. 18, more than one million service members have been vaccinated, along with more than 300,000 civilian employees.Vaccine mandates for college students were also gathering pace after the F.D.A.’s decision.The F.D.A.’s approval brought into force a requirement in New York, announced in May, that all in-person students at State University of New York and City University of New York schools be vaccinated. CUNY’s website said that after federal approval students “have 45 days to get fully vaccinated or will be subject to potential academic withdrawal.” The University of Minnesota system, with five campuses and 60,000 students, said on Monday that the coronavirus vaccine would be added to the university’s list of mandatory immunizations for students. And the president of Louisiana State University told reporters that his school would also require vaccination. Each institution had previously said it would do so once the F.D.A. gave a coronavirus vaccine final approval.

Vaccine protection wanes within six months, study hints -The protection provided by two doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech and Oxford/AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccines starts to wane within six months, new research suggests. The Pfizer jab was 88 per cent effective at preventing covid-19 infection a month after the second dose, but after five to six months the protection decreased to 74 per cent, according to analysis from the Zoe Covid study involving more than 1.2 million participants in the UK. With the AstraZeneca vaccine, protection dropped from 77 per cent one month after the second dose to 67 per cent after four to five months. “In my opinion, a reasonable worst-case scenario could see protection below 50 per cent for the elderly and healthcare workers by winter,” said Tim Spector, lead scientist on the Zoe Covid Study.The study’s findings are in line with another recent analysis, which found that the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine wanes in effectiveness by around a fifth every month after the second dose, and that both vaccines are less effective in older age groups. Another study, published as a preprint this week by The Lancet, found that two in five people who have impaired immune systems have a “low or undetectable” antibody response after being double vaccinated. The researchers from the Universities of Glasgow and Birmingham said their results support giving a third dose of coronavirus vaccine to people who had no or lower level antibody responses.

New CDC studies point to waning immunity from vaccines – Two new studies from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show fully vaccinated Americans’ immunity to Covid-19 is waning as the more-transmissible Delta variant continues to spread across the country.One study, which focused on frontline health care workers, found that vaccine effectiveness declined by nearly thirty percentage points since the Delta variant became the dominant strain in the U.S. The analysis also concluded that the Covid-19 vaccines were 80 percent effective in preventing infection among the frontline health care workers.The CDC cautioned in its report that the vaccine effectiveness “might also be declining as time since vaccination increases and because of poor precision in estimates due to limited number of weeks of observation.”The second study examined 43,000 Los Angeles residents age 16 and older. It found that 25 percent of new infections from May to July were in fully vaccinated individuals, while 71 percent occurred in unvaccinated people. The study also showed that the hospitalization rate was significantly lower for fully vaccinated people than for unvaccinated people.The publication of the studies comes a week after the agency released its first three reports on vaccine efficacy, the Delta variant and breakthrough infections. One of those analyses showed that vaccine effectiveness among adults in New York declined from 91.7 percent in early May to 79.8 percent by late July.Both recent sets of CDC studies show that breakthrough infections in vaccinated people are still rare. But they also add to growing evidence that protection from Covid-19 shots lessens over time, which agency officials say supports their recommendation that Americans receive booster shots eight months after their initial vaccination."The Los Angeles cohort study tells a very compelling story of the impact of vaccination in protecting very well against severe disease and in reducing infection," said Leana Wen, an emergency physician and public health professor at George Washington University. "It also highlights why it matters to the vaccinated if others around them are unvaccinated — the infections among the unvaccinated are spilling over and increasing the likelihood of breakthrough infections among the vaccinated."The CDC has for months monitored breakthrough infections and vaccine efficacy in different populations across the U.S. The agency is working with a small group of state health departments to study all infections in fully vaccinated people, including those who do not end up in the hospital. It also continues to study vaccine efficacy among groups like frontline health care workers and nursing home residents and staff.CDC officials pointed to recent state data on breakthrough infection states, and its New York study, as clear proof that Americans need booster shots. But critics inside the Biden administration and outside health experts have argued the CDC has not presented enough evidence to support doling a second round of shots domestically when dozens of countries are still struggling to get a hold of first doses.

Even Mainstream Media Is Now Asking Big Questions About Covid Vaccines -Former Congressman Ron Paul has highlighted this week that a handful of mainstream media articles have actually begun tobreak ranks in terms of questioning key aspects of vaccine effectiveness and mandates, particularly when it comes to the controversial boosters now being widely proposed."Even mainstream media is now asking big questions about the vaccines" Wednesday's Liberty Report featured. A couple of recent headlines in Bloomberg and BBC were unexpected in terms the criticism reflected and somewhat skeptical pushback against the 'consensus narrative'. The first news article that Congressman Paul and co-host Daniel McAdams highlight is from Bloomberg.Here's how the very unexpected Bloomberg article, which was published this past weekend, began:Anecdotes tell us what the data can’t: Vaccinated people appear to be getting the coronavirus at a surprisingly high rate. But exactly how often isn’t clear, nor is it certain how likely they are to spread the virus to others. Though it is evident vaccination still provides powerful protection against the virus, there’s growing concern that vaccinated people may be more vulnerable to serious illness than previously thought.And the same day as the BBG headline, there was this from UK government-funded BBC..."Is catching Covid now better than more vaccine?"The story began: It is now a serious question that has implications for whether children should ever be vaccinated. And whether we use the virus or booster shots to top up immunity in adults. Both have become contentious issues."We could be digging ourselves into a hole, for a very long time, where we think we can only keep Covid away by boosting every year," Prof Eleanor Riley, an immunologist from the University of Edinburgh, told me.

Full FDA authorization of the Pfizer COVID vaccine: No panacea for the COVID catastrophe - On Monday, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced that Pfizer’s COVID-19 mRNA vaccine was granted full authorization for the prevention of COVID-19 disease in people 16 years of age or older. The vaccine, now being marketed under the new name Comirnaty, will still be available to those aged 12 through 15 under the initial emergency use authorization. In the press brief announcing the approval, acting FDA commissioner Dr. Janet Woodcock said, “The FDA’s approval of this vaccine is a milestone as we continue to battle the COVID-19 pandemic. While this and other vaccines have met the FDA’s rigorous, scientific standards for emergency use authorization, as the first FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine, the public can be very confident that this vaccine meets the high standards for safety, effectiveness, and manufacturing quality the FDA requires of an approved product.” In concert with the FDA announcement, President Joe Biden released a statement from the White House urging business leaders, as well as state and local officials, to begin mandating vaccines for their employees. The Pentagon followed suit hours later declaring they would now enforce the vaccine mandates for 1.4 million soldiers and another million civilian employees. Dr. Georges Benjamin, executive director of the American Public Health Association, told the Los Angeles Times, “You’re going to see a lot more groups being more comfortable saying a shot is required. They’ll be more firm about helping people understand that, pure and simple, it is much safer to get the vaccine than to get the disease.” As important as the vaccines have been to stem severe disease and death from COVID-19 infections, the FDA’s full approval for Pfizer does not mean any real progress in ending the pandemic. Vaccination alone is not enough; it must be combined with a massive public health campaign, including lockdowns as well as masking and social distancing, with the goal of eradication, not mitigation of SARS-CoV-2.

Vaccine Greed: Capitalism Without Competition Isn’t Capitalism, It’s Exploitation. - DID GREED JUST save the day? That’s what British Prime Minister Boris Johnson claimed recently. “The reason we have the vaccine success,” he said in a private call to Conservative members of Parliament, “is because of capitalism, because of greed.”Despite later backpedaling, Johnson’s remark reflects a widely influential but wildly incoherent view of innovation: that greed — the unfettered pursuit of profit above all else — is a necessary driver of technological progress. Call it the need-greed theory.Among the pandemic’s many lessons, however, is that greed can easily work against the common good. We rightly celebrate the near-miraculous development of effective vaccines, which have been widely deployed in rich nations. But the global picture reveals not even a semblance of justice: As of May, low-income nations received just 0.3 percent of the global vaccine supply. At this rate it would take 57 years for them to achieve full vaccination.This disparity has been dubbed “vaccine apartheid,” and it’s exacerbated by greed. A year after the launch of the World Health Organization’s Covid-19 Technology Access Pool — a program aimed at encouraging the collaborative exchange of intellectual property, knowledge, and data — “not a single company has donated its technical knowhow,” wrote politicians from India, Kenya, and Bolivia in a June essay for The Guardian. As of that month, the U.N.-backed COVAX initiative, a vaccine sharing scheme established to provide developing countries equitable access, had delivered only about 90 million out of a promised 2 billion doses. Currently, pharmaceutical companies, lobbyists, and conservative lawmakers continue to oppose proposals for patent waivers that would allow local drug makers to manufacture the vaccines without legal jeopardy. They claim the waivers would slow down existing production, “foster the proliferation of counterfeit vaccines,” and, as North Carolina Republican Sen. Richard Burr said, “undermine the very innovation we are relying on to bring this pandemic to an end.” All these views echo the idea that patents and high drug prices are necessary motivators for biomedical innovation. But examine that logic closely, and it quickly begins to fall apart.

"We Don't Understand What's Really Happening" - The CDC Is Under-Counting 'Breakthrough' COVID Cases -A growing number of public health officials working at the state level are worried that the federal government isn't collecting enough accurate data about "breakthrough" infections, yet the Biden Administration has pushed ahead with plans to dole out booster shots, as well as other COVID policies.According to Politico, 49 states are now regularly sending CDC information on hospitalized breakthrough patients. But more than a dozen have told Politico that they do not have the capacity to match hospital admission data with patients' immunization records, forcing states to rely on hospital administrators to report breakthrough infections. The result is data that is often aggregated, inaccurate and missing critical details like which vaccine the consumer received .Instead, those states rely on hospital administrators to report breakthrough infections. The resulting data is often aggregated, inaccurate and omits critical details for teasing out trends, such as which vaccine a person received and whether they have been fully vaccinated, a dozen state officials said.The fact that the CDC and public health departments across the country are still struggling to collect data on breakthrough infections is almost embarrassing, considering we're more than 18 months into the pandemic at this point, and scientists have repeatedly warned about the necessity of being prepared for the Omega Death Variant which is right around the corner, according to Dr. Fauci's latest fearmongering blitz.“I think it would be really challenging [for the CDC] to interpret the results or to interpret the data when you have only some jurisdictions reporting [breakthrough infections],” said Theresa Sokol, lead epidemiologist for Louisiana’s state public health department, which is working closely with the CDC on studies of breakthrough infections. “I know that there are some jurisdictions that don't even have access to their vaccination data. They don't have the authority or their permission.”Perhaps the biggest obstacle to collecting data on breakthrough infections is the balkanized nature of state health-care systems. States can't communicate with other states. For years, states have pleaded with the federal government to upgrade these systems to no avail.

J&J finds that a second dose of its vaccine provides a strong boost -A booster shot of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine dramatically raises the levels of antibodies against the coronavirus, the company reported on Wednesday.Johnson & Johnson will submit the data to the Food and Drug Administration, which is evaluating similar studies from Pfizer and Moderna. If authorized by the agency, the Biden administration wants to provide booster shots eight months after vaccination.The Johnson & Johnson vaccine was absent from the government’s initial booster plan, announced last week. But with the new data, the company hopes to be part of the initial distribution of additional shots, which could happen as early as September. …In its new study, Johnson & Johnson tracked 17 volunteers from last year’s clinical trial. Six months after vaccination, their level of antibodies had changed little.That’s different than the pattern seen with the Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines. Those shots initially produce higher levels of antibodies, but their levels then drop over several months. When volunteers in the Johnson & Johnson trial were given a booster shot at six months, their antibodies against the coronavirus jumped nine times higher than after the first dose. …

Are We Jumping the Gun on COVID Boosters? -Over the last week, the topic of COVID-19 booster shots -- a third dose of mRNA vaccine for healthy Americans -- has been thrust into the spotlight. The surgeon general, CDC director, Anthony Fauci, MD, and President Biden have announced that they wish for boosters to be available by late September for healthy adults who are 8 months out from their original two-dose series. While this will be contingent on an FDA evaluation to determine the "safety and effectiveness of the third dose," a clear path forward has already been set. And just like everything else throughout the course of the pandemic, the choice has been made with a dearth of data and an abundance of political pressure.Diminishing vaccine effectiveness supposedly makes the case for boosters. But there are two big questions here: First, what is current vaccine effectiveness? And second, what justifies boosters? Let's consider these in turn.We have to be honest, many vaccine effectiveness studies are poorly done. All studies compare the rate of getting a breakthrough infection among vaccinated people against the rate of infection in unvaccinated people. But there are some issues with this approach. First, as time goes on, more unvaccinated people have had and recovered from COVID-19 (and these individuals may be less likely to go on to get a shot). This means that their risk of getting COVID-19 a second time is far less than the typical unvaccinated person who has never been sick. Even if vaccines "work" as well as before, this factor alone will result in the appearance of diminishing vaccine effectiveness.Second, the order of vaccination in all nations is non-random. The folks who got vaccinated first are often the oldest and most vulnerable people with frailty and senescent immune systems. Vaccine effectiveness after 6 months, 8 months, and 12 months increasingly compares older, frailer people who got vaccinated first against unvaccinated people. These older people may always have a slightly higher risk of breakthrough infections. This bias will also give the false appearance of diminishing vaccine effectiveness.A third consideration: We're looking at vaccine effectiveness, but for what? People don't want to get severely ill from SARS-CoV-2 and don't want to die, but it might be too much to ask that vaccines prevent the nucleotide sequence of SARS-CoV-2 from ever being in your nose. In other words, vaccine effectiveness against severe disease may be much higher than vaccine effectiveness against asymptomatic or mild infection. This matters a great deal -- if the vaccines continue to be highly effective against risk of severe illness and death, is it really worth boosting people in the U.S. right now? And putting this all together, the best estimates of vaccine effectiveness do, in fact, still show high protection against severe disease and death.

Why a booster might be necessary - Even people who were vaccinated are expressing anxiety these days, wondering whether they’ll be protected from the delta variant. Most likely yes, if it involved any of the three vaccines available in the U.S. Every one of them, Pfizer, Moderna, and Johnson and Johnson, make the chance of dying from the coronavirus, or even going into the hospital, much lower. But some vaccine recipients might still be worried because they’ve heard mRNA vaccine immunity wanes. This story is still evolving, but it’s common for circulating antibody levels against any microbe to drop over time. It’s also common for cells that make specific antibodies to remain in the body long term, often hanging out peacefully until re-exposure causes them to ratchet-up antibody production. Likewise, specialized immune cells, called T cells, can lurk around in low numbers ready to nab the virus and amp up the immune system. These cells are harder to detect than antibodies, so the story’s not clear cut.Nonetheless, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is recommending that people who got an mRNA vaccine but who didn’t respond strongly should get a booster shot now. Who are those people? Those who had been treated with immune-suppressing drugs for something like cancer or an autoimmune disease recently are among the candidates. Now’s the time for them to get the booster.What about those who got the J&J vaccine? They only got one shot to start with, unlike the two-shot process required for the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines. Now some J&J recipients might be thinking something’s wrong here. After all, there was that blood-clot scare early on when they stopped giving the J&J vaccine for a while. The fact that the Food and Drug Administration swiftly put a hold on the emergency-use authorization should reassure you as to how carefully the FDA works to protect people. Such holds are not unusual in clinical trials.The hold happened after only six people had clots out of more than 6 million people vaccinated. Only when the FDA was convinced by rigorous examination of those specific cases did it reinstate the authorization. Like the other two, the J&J vaccine is remarkably effective and minimizes recipients’ chance of dying from infection by the delta variant.Why is it taking so long to find out whether a J&J booster is necessary? Remember that the J&J vaccine entered clinical trials later than the other two. But on Wednesday, a very small study suggested that a booster given at six months increased the amount of antibody in those getting the J&J vaccine by nine times what it was a month after getting the original dose.Those who have been waiting for the FDA to actually approve a vaccine before getting the shot are now in luck: The Pfizer vaccine was fully approved on Monday, and the other vaccines are in the non-emergency approval pipeline. Some people were hesitant because of how fast mRNA vaccines were developed. The speed was the result of a chance conversion of factors. First, the new nanoparticle technology that protects and delivers the mRNA was just being perfected. Second, the spike protein of a highly related coronavirus that causes Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, or SARS, had been identified as key for infection. Third, government funding jump-started the manufacturing and testing. Finally, there was so much of the coronavirus going around that it didn’t take long to tell that the number of people getting severe infections was much lower in the vaccinated group than in the placebo group.

Natural immunity from COVID infection is stronger than vaccine immunity, massive study in Israel finds - People who have been previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 and are unvaccinated may have stronger long-term protection than those who have been vaccinated with two Pfizer doses but were never previously infected with the virus. That’s according to a new study out this week that analyzed a dataset involving thousands of people in Israel, a country that rolled out one of the earliest nationwide vaccination programs. However, researchers caution that the vaccine is the least risky option to acquire immunity to SARS-CoV-2 as its protection against severe, life-threatening symptoms is still very good, even in the face of Delta and other dangerous variants. Furthermore, the study found that people who were previously infected but later received one shot of the vaccine had the best protection out of all. The only thing that beats natural immunity is natural immunity AND a vaccine Researchers at the Kahn Sagol Maccabi (KSM) Research & Innovation Center in Israel conducted a retrospective observational study comparing tens of thousands of people enrolled in the Maccabi Healthcare Services database who were divided into three groups: people who received a two-dose regimen of the BioNTech/Pfizer mRNA vaccine, previously infected individuals who have never been vaccinated, and previously infected individuals who received a single dose of the vaccine. All groups were matched in a one to one ratio by age and sex. Overall, 673,000 members were eligible for the study group of fully vaccinated Sars-CoV-2-naïve individuals, 62,883 were eligible for the study group of unvaccinated previously infected individuals and 42,099 individuals were eligible for the study group of previously infected and single-dose vaccines. The participants were grouped based on when the first event, either vaccination or infection, occurred during January and February of 2021. They were then compared based on four outcomes — SARS-CoV-2 infection, symptomatic disease, COVID-19-related hospitalization, and death — that were registered between June 1 and August 14, 2021, a timeframe when the much more contagious and dangerous Delta variant became dominant in Israel. In the space of this six-month follow up, the statistical models employed by the researchers in Israel showed that immunity acquired through vaccination was waning. Compared to previously infected individuals, those who acquired immunity by vaccination had a nearly 13-fold increased risk for a breakthrough infection, a 27-fold increased risk for symptomatic disease (chiefly fever, cough, breathing difficulties, diarrhea, loss of taste or smell, myalgia, weakness, headache and sore throat), and were more likely to be hospitalized.

Scientists Race To Unlock Mysteries Of "COVID Resistance" Seen In Small Number Of People -Like with virtually every other virus (including HIV), it appears a tiny fraction of the human population are mysteriously immune to the virus. And after a nearly two-year pandemic, scientists are starting to confirm cases of this type of resistance as they seek to study it and learn more about the virus.Specifically, one scientist in Brazil who has been studying genetic viral immunity (the theory is that the key to the immunity lies within the individual's genetic makeup) for years turned her attention to COVID at the beginning of the pandemic. For a study, she managed to gather 100 couples experiencing "discordant" COVID infection (a "discordant" infection occurs when COVID infects one partner, but not the other, despite them being physically intimate and sharing the same living quarters) to test their DNA, Stat News reports. There's a difference between patients who are resistance to the virus, and patients who become infected, but are asymptomatic. For many healthier patients, their immune systems will spontaneously clear the irus shortly after infection, preventing them from developing the actual disease that is COVID. These people will typically test positive when tested for antibodies.Patients who have viral resistance clear the virus before SARS-CoV-2 enters the body's cells, preventing infection entirely.The Brazilian scientists aren't the only team studying viral resistance as it pertains to COVID. A team of scientists at NYU and the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai were the first to report finding genes potentially involved in COVID resistance. During the research, the scientists used a CRISPR genome editing technology to disable each of 20,000 human genes in lung cells before exposing them to SARS-CoV-2. Most of the cells died within a few days. "Anything that lives," one of the scientists explained, "is clearly missing something essential for a virus, and so potentially has a significant gene mutation."In theory, this discovery could help with the development of a genetic therapy that would work by inhibiting the genes that assist with facilitating infection.

Nitric Oxide Nasal Spray Reduces Covid-19 Viral Load By 95% Within 24 Hours: Study -A well known antimicrobial, Nitric Oxide, has been found to rapidly reduce SARS-CoV-2 viral load, knocking it down by95% within 24 hours, and 99% within 72 hours, according to a recent study by researchers funded by England's NHS foundation trust and SaNOtize Research & Development Corporation - a Canadian biotech company currently conducting Phase II trials of a nitric oxide nasal spray. A group of 80 adults (18-70 years) with confirmed (Alpha strain) Covid-19 infections were divided into two groups, with half receiving nitric oxide nasal spray (NONS) that were self-administered 5-6 times daily for 9 days.The goal of the nasal spray is to kill the virus present in the upper airways - preventing it from incubating and making its way to the lungs.The study found that mean viral load was significantly lower in the NONS group by a factor of 16.2, in what the study's authors described as an "accelerated decrease," while nearly half of those who completed a post-study questionnaire reported feeling better vs. 8% of the placebo group.Mean SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration was lower on NONS by a factor of 16.2 at days 2 and 4. A rapid reduction (95%) in the SARS-CoV-2 viral load was observed within 24 hours, with a 99% reduction observed within 72 hours with NONS treatments. -Clinical efficacy of nitric oxide nasal spray (NONS) for the treatment of mild COVID-19 infection.What's more, there were no serious adverse reactions from the nasal spray.

Anti-vaxxers are refusing blood transfusions from vaccinated donors because they believe they're 'tainted,' report says -Some patients who are skeptical of the coronavirus jab are refusing life-saving blood transfusions from vaccinated donors, according to a report by The Daily Beast. The American Red Cross said that their officials have had to field questions in recent weeks about whether vaccinated blood could be "tainted" with components from the COVID-19 injections, according to spokesperson Emily Osment.Doctors have had to explain that it is safe to receive a blood donation from a vaccinated person. "While the antibodies that are produced by the stimulated immune system in response to vaccination are found throughout the bloodstream, the actual vaccine components are not," Jessa Merrill, the Red Cross director of biomedical communications, told The Daily Beast. Other blood centers across the country are reporting similar conversations with patients. Dr. Louis Katz, chief medical officer for ImpactLife, a blood center in Iowa, said he's had to tell "a small handful" of patients that it is not possible to give them blood from unvaccinated donors.

Texas congressman tests positive for coronavirus -Rep. Troy Nehls (R-Texas) announced on Saturday that he had tested positive for a breakthrough case of COVID-19. “I shared with you on Wednesday a close family member had become ill with COVID. Well, I have now tested positive and am symptomatic too,” Nehls said. “I’m experiencing moderate symptoms but I am fully vaccinated and hope it passes soon. I have been quarantining at home and will continue to do so for at least the next 10 days.” “All Americans are free to make their own health decisions, but I strongly encourage getting vaccinated. It is scientifically proven to drastically reduce the risk of severe illness & death from COVID,” Nehls said in his post. Nehls's diagnosis is the latest example of a lawmaker testing positive for a breakthrough infection, including three senators announcing positive tests in a single day last week. Some number of breakthrough infections is considered inevitable, as no vaccine is able to 100 percent guarantee that a vaccinated person will not become infected, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) notes. The New York Times, which analyzed preliminary data from seven states,reported last week that at least 1 in 5 new COVID-19 cases reported in six states were breakthrough cases. The news outlet noted that the delta variant may have complicated efforts to mitigate cases, even among those who are fully vaccinated.

Conservative radio host who was a vaccine skeptic dies after bout with COVID-19 - A conservative radio host who expressed skepticism about COVID-19 and vaccinations died Saturday, his employer WWTN Radio said on Twitter. The station asked users to keep the family of Phil Valentine, who contracted the virus in late July, in their “thoughts and prayers.” He was 61 years old. Valentine periodically questioned the severity of COVID-19 — including a time in December 2020 when he projected his chance of dying from the virus at "probably way less than one percent,” CNN reported. “If I decide not to get vaccinated, I’m not putting anyone else’s life in danger except perhaps people who have made the same decision,” Valentine wrote on his blog Dec. 17, 2020. “With this thing being 95 percent effective, there’s really no way I’m going to infect someone who’s had the shot. That’s if I even get the virus.” “I’m not an anti-vaxxer. I’m just using common sense. What are my odds of getting COVID? They’re pretty low,” he continued. “What are my odds of dying from COVID if I do get it? Probably way less than one percent.”

Journalist Zaid Jilani warns media against 'COVID-19 grave dancing’ - Journalist Zaid Jilani told Hill.TV that news outlets need to be careful not to shame unvaccinated individuals or vaccine opponents who later die from the coronavirus, a practice he called “COVID-19 grave dancing.” Jilani told Hill.TV’s “Rising” that some media coverage is a symptom of the political polarization surrounding the response to the pandemic. “Maybe they were skeptical of vaccines, or masks or something like that, and maybe they got COVID, and they died,” Jilani said. “That's usually a very sad circumstance, but it’s turned into sort of a celebration, like ‘ha we got the other side!’” “It’s an odd way to think of a virus,” he added. Oftentimes, Jilani said, the virus’s trajectory is more complex and does not necessarily have a political explanation that can be tied to a governor’s order. Using language that stigmatizes people who are not vaccinated can fuel further hesitancy, he cautioned. “People will feel like their side is being attacked, so they need to dig down into their position to be even more hesitant about, you know, it could be vaccination; it could be masking; it could be other measures,” he said.

Pregnant women succumbing to Delta variant in the US, leaving behind scores of broken families - Another cruel aspect of the virulent Delta variant is the rate at which pregnant women, largely unvaccinated, are giving birth to their newborn babies desperately ill or as their final act before succumbing to COVID-19.A number of counties and hospital systems throughout the country are reporting concerning spikes in the numbers of pregnant women admitted to hospital and growing numbers of deaths. Pregnant women infected with the virus have an increased risk of progressing to a more severe illness. The virulent Delta variant which is spreading quickly throughout the globe is putting increasing numbers of pregnant women in the ICU. According todata from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) as of Friday August 20, a total of 18,262 pregnant women have been hospitalized from a known 107,532 total cases. More than 14,500 have been placed in intensive care and 10,003 of those have been ventilated. The total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths among pregnant women stands at 128.Vaccination rates among pregnant women are alarmingly low, with the CDC reporting on August 11 that only 23 percent have received at least one dose and some 77 percent of expecting women remain unvaccinated. In Palm Beach, Florida a group of concerned obstetric and gynecological physicians held a rare press briefing on Thursday at the Jupiter Medical Center to urge vaccinations of pregnant women as the hospital has seen anywhere from two to five pregnant patients being admitted to the hospital daily. The physicians, who represented nine practices in the area, reported pregnant or post-partum patients in the ICU over the last six to eight weeks. Doctors in Minneapolis, Minnesota, are also reporting concerns of a rise in pregnant women becoming critically ill with COVID-19. Dr. Sarah Cross with University of Minnesota’s Masonic Children’s Hospital reported to CBS Minnesota that she has seen a marked increase in recent weeks with pregnancy creating a high-risk condition for COVID-19 patients.

Photo of sick Florida woman lying on the floor of treatment center goes viral as demand for COVID-19 antiviral treatment surges - A photo of a Florida woman experiencing painful COVID-19 symptoms went viral this week after she was discovered lying on the floor of a monoclonal antibody treatment facility in Jacksonville. The widely circulated picture produced shock and outrage as the state continues to grapple with an unprecedented spike in infections, hospitalizations and deaths from the coronavirus. The photo was taken at a downtown library which has been converted into a treatment center to support the scores of sick patients that have overfilled every hospital in the city, leading to a grave shortage of beds and ICUs for critically ill cases. The woman was found by her husband, who took the photo, lying on her stomach in a near-fetal position and semi-conscious while awaiting desperately needed medical attention. Another patient who posted the picture on Reddit says she “saw people crying in pain,” while waiting for treatment. Woman lies on the floor of a monoclonal antibody clinic set up for COVID-19 patients at the Jacksonville, Florida library. One of the original posts with the picture carried a caption describing how appalling conditions had become for the ill. The poster said that her husband, who was vaccinated but still tested positive for the virus, had been waiting for more than two hours just for monoclonal therapy and expressed shock over the number of people waiting for help. “He has never seen people so sick,” the post read. Sick patients were seen all around the facility “moaning, crying, unable to move.” Florida has become the third state in the US to reach 3 million confirmed cases of COVID-19, a total surpassed by just 15 countries worldwide. COVID-19 patients now account for approximately 30 percent of all hospital patients in the state, the highest total on record. There were 17,235 people hospitalized for COVID-19 on Saturday, an uptick of 37 from the day prior. Although total reported cases in the state fell very slightly last week, 150,740 compared to 151,764, deaths rose sharply, an indication that the gap between the tsunami of hospitalizations across the state and recorded fatalities is beginning to diminish. The state saw 1,486 deaths last week compared to 1,071 the week before, the highest weekly death toll recorded since the pandemic emerged. The week’s deaths were nearly 15 percent above the previous record of 1,296 deaths during the pandemic’s second wave in January.

Florida mother loses unvaccinated sons to COVID-19 in 12 hours - A mother from Jacksonville, Fla., lost two of her adult sons to COVID-19 and now has to move out of their shared home. Lisa Brandon, just like her sons, came down with COVID-19. But she was vaccinated — and she believes the vaccine would have saved their lives. “It’s a parent’s worst nightmare,” Lisa Brandon told News4Jax. “The only reason I’m doing this is to put the word out to please get vaccinated.” In late July, Brandon told the local news outlet, she and her sons, Aaron Jaggi, 35, and Free Jaggi, 41, began feeling ill. Aaron and Free’s conditions worsened after contracting pneumonia along with the coronavirus. The Jaggi brothers were admitted into the intensive care unit and put on ventilators, but they ultimately succumbed to the virus within 12 hours of one another. Older brother Free died on Aug. 12 and younger brother Aaron died the following day. “This is horrible. I love my boys,” Brandon told News4Jax. “They never made it home.” America is changing faster than ever! Add Changing America to your Facebook or Twitter feed to stay on top of the news. Branson has now lost three sons, including her son David, who died five years ago. “My boys, they were my life,” she told the local news outlet. “That’s all I lived for, for them.” As a recipient of the Moderna vaccine, she credits the vaccination for a milder case of COVID-19 compared to her boys, who she said she was unsuccessful in convincing to get vaccinated. “I think they would be alive today if they would have gotten their shot,” she told News4Jax. “I wouldn’t have gotten it as bad. I wish I could have made them do it. And now it’s too late.”

Jesse Jackson and Wife Hospitalized with Covid - Rev. Jesse Jackson and his wife are both hospitalized after testing positive for Covid-19."Doctors are currently monitoring the condition of both," the Rainbow PUSH Coalition (RPC) said in a statement Saturday. "Anyone who has been around either of them for the last five or six days should follow the CDC guidelines."RPC is a Chicago-based international human and civil rights organization founded by Jackson, according to its website.Jackson, 79, and his wife, Jacqueline Jackson, 77, are currently at Northwestern Memorial Hospital in Chicago, the statement said.Jackson received his first Covid-19 vaccine dose in January at an event to promote African American confidence in vaccinations, according to a statement at the time from RPC.Due to the more dangerous nature of the Delta variant, breakthrough infections for those who are vaccinated have been reported, largely among those who are older or immunocompromised. In February, the civil rights leader underwent successful surgery after being hospitalized for abdominal discomfort. In 2017, he was diagnosed with Parkinson's disease, a neurological disorder with no cure.

 Gov. Hochul acknowledges more New York Covid deaths than Andrew Cuomo counted -- New York Gov. Kathy Hochul's new administration acknowledged almost 12,000 more deaths from the coronavirus than were counted publicly by her predecessor, Andrew Cuomo, as part of a push to share more comprehensive data on the pandemic's toll in her state.The governor's office included a count of 55,395 Covid deaths in the Empire State — the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's tally — in a press release Tuesday evening.That figure compiles deaths from the virus in any location in New York. It is significantly higher than the 43,415 deaths reported by the Hospital Emergency Response Data System, or HERDS, which only counts deaths reported by hospitals, nursing homes and adult care facilities.The lower second tally, which omits Covid deaths that occurred in other settings such as homes or hospices, was presented to the public and on the state's health department website under Cuomo.Cuomo came under fire for publicizing the more conservative figure, even as New York City's count of Covid deaths matched the CDC's.Hochul's office on Tuesday included both figures with an explanation for each. She took office a day earlier after Cuomo resigned amid a sexual harassment scandal.In interviews Wednesday morning, the new governor said her administration would use the CDC's figures as part of a push for increased transparency after it took over for Cuomo. His administration was accused of underreporting Covid deaths in nursing homes by up to 50%."As of yesterday, we're using CDC numbers which'll be consistent," Hochul said on NPR. "So, there's no opportunity for us to mask those numbers, nor would I want to mask those numbers.""I'll be taking an approach that's very different," the governor separately told MSNBC. "Transparency starting just today, we're now releasing more data than had been released before publicly, so people know the nursing home deaths and the hospital deaths are consistent with what's being displayed by the CDC."

 August 25th COVID-19: 7-Day Average New Cases Highest Since January -- On daily deaths: There were over 1,100 deaths reported today. In early July, the 7-day average for daily COVID deaths was around 190. Since then, the 7-day average of daily deaths has more than quadrupled, and since deaths lag hospitalizations, it seems likely average daily deaths will increase to over 1,000 per day. Be careful.The 7-day average cases is the highest since January 30th.The 7-day average hospitalizations is the highest since February 5th.The 7-day average deaths is the highest since March 17th.The CDC is the source for all data.According to the CDC, on Vaccinations. Total doses administered: 364,842,701, as of a week ago 358,599,835. Average doses last week: 0.89 million per day. (see table) For "herd immunity" most experts believe we need 70% to 85% of the total population fully vaccinated (or already had COVID). 7 states have achieved 60% of total population fully vaccinated: Vermont at 67.5%, Massachusetts, Maine, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland and New Jersey at 60.7%. The following 17 states and D.C. have between 50% and 59.9% fully vaccinated: Washington at 59.6%, New Hampshire, New York State, New Mexico, Oregon, District of Columbia, Virginia, Colorado, Minnesota, California, Hawaii, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, and Michigan at 50.1%. This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

 August 26th COVID-19: Over 1,200 Deaths, Almost 90,000 Hospitalized, 165,000 Cases Reported Today -- The 7-day average hospitalizations is the highest since February 4th.The 7-day average deaths is the highest since March 16th.The CDC is the source for all data.According to the CDC, on Vaccinations. Total doses administered: 365,767,674, as of a week ago 359,623,380. Average doses last week: 0.88 million per day. IMPORTANT: For "herd immunity" most experts believe we need 70% to 85% of the total population fully vaccinated (or already had COVID). 7 states that have achieved 60% of total population fully vaccinated: Vermont at 67.6%, Massachusetts, Maine, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland and New Jersey at 60.9%.The following 17 states and D.C. have between 50% and 59.9% fully vaccinated: Washington at 59.7%, New Hampshire, New York State, New Mexico, Oregon, District of Columbia, Virginia, Colorado, Minnesota, California, Hawaii, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, and Michigan at 50.2%.This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

Jesse Jackson moved to rehab, wife Jacqueline to ICU in COVID treatment - The Rev. Jesse Jackson has been moved to a physical rehabilitation center, while his wife Jacqueline was transferred to the intensive care unit at the hospital where the two were undergoing treatment for COVID-19.The 79-year-old political activist and minister and his 77-year-old wife were admitted to Northwestern Memorial Hospital in Chicago last weekend.Family members said in a statement Friday that Jacqueline Jackson was moved to the ICU and was receiving oxygen, but breathing on her own.The statement said that Jesse Jackson’s coronavirus symptoms were subsiding, and that a hospital focused on physical rehabilitation due to his Parkinson’s disease. “As his COVID-19 symptoms abate, his Parkinson’s has become more in focus. Therefore, he has been transferred to The Shirley Ryan Ability Lab where he will immediately begin intensive occupational and physical therapy,” said a statement from Jonathan Jackson, through the Rainbow Push Coalition. The reverend was vaccinated against COVID-19 in January, in a public campaign to encourage black Americans to get the shot. A month after getting vaccinated, Jackson underwent gallbladder surgery. Jackson told The Associated Press on Tuesday that his wife was not vaccinated when she contracted the virus due a “preexisting condition” that he would not elaborate on. She had been responding well to her treatments earlier in the week, according to the family.

 US intel report on COVID-19 origins inconclusive: WaPo -A classified document given to President Biden on Tuesday revealed that the intelligence community was not able to identify any definitive origins for the virus that causes COVID-19, The Washington Post reported. Two U.S. officials familiar with the matter told the news outlet that the intelligence findings were inconclusive and were not able to point to the exact source for the virus, including the initially accepted theory that the virus likely passed from animals to humans, nor whether it leaked as a result of a laboratory accident. The report follows Biden’s May request for the intelligence community to “redouble their efforts” on coming to an official determination on the origins of COVID-19 and report back to him within 90 days. Biden said in a statement at the time that he wanted intelligence officials to include “areas of further inquiry that may be required, including specific questions for China.” The U.S. officials, who spoke to the Post on the condition of anonymity because the report has not been released to the public, said that the intelligence community would move to declassify components of the report in the coming days. The Hill has reached out to the White House for comment. The reported inconclusive results comes after Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told Yahoo! News in a June interview that the intelligence community would likely never have “high confidence” on the origins of COVID-19. “We’re hoping to find a smoking gun,” she said at the time, but noted “it’s challenging to do that.” “It might happen, but it might not,” she added. Haines, who said the intelligence review involved dozens of analysts and intelligence officials, noted that investigators have largely centered around two theories: the human contact with an infected animal, and the lab accident. “I don’t know between these two plausible theories which one is the right answer,” Haines told Yahoo in June. “But I’ve listened to the analysts, and I really see why it is that they perceive these two theories as being in contest with each other and why it’s very challenging for them to assess one over the other.”

COVID: What we know about the new Delta strain could lock Israel down - The Jerusalem Post - A senior health official warned last week that a new strain of the Delta variant could force Israel into a lockdown. “If it reaches Israel, we will get to the lockdown that we so desperately want to avoid,” Health Ministry Department of International Relations Director Dr. Asher Shalmon told the Knesset Law and Constitution Committee, referring to AY3, which is believed to have originated in South America and was first detected in the US. Just two days later, the ministry announced that 10 cases of AY3 had been identified in Israel, eight among people who had recently returned from abroad and two who appear to have become infected in the country. What do we know about AY3 and could it really be the straw that breaks the camel’s back and sends Israel into another lockdown? “AY3 is a subtype of the Delta variant, which falls under the category of what we have called the Delta-Plus variants,” Prof. Cyrille Cohen, head of the immunotherapy laboratory at Bar-Ilan University, said. “All of them present a mutation called 417, which is suspected to help the variant to escape antibodies.” All viruses tend to constantly mutate. While most mutations have no consequences, a cluster of mutations can engender a new variant, and the virus may create a different protein as a consequence. In the case of the coronavirus, the key protein to consider is the spike protein, which is found on the surface of the virus and allows it to penetrate host cells and cause infections. Variants are a concern when they increase the transmissibility of the virus, as they tend to elicit more serious symptoms or appear to be more resistant to antibodies. “We saw that as of May the strain was almost non-existent in the US and now it represents around 13% of all cases in the whole country, and in some individual states like Mississippi and Missouri, as many as 43%-45% of the cases,” Cohen noted. Asked whether he thinks that the variant has reached Israel and the country is more at risk of a lockdown, the professor said he doesn’t think we have reached that point yet. “We have to follow what happens closely and see if it will become prevalent in Israel,” he said. “With the original Delta we were in a similar situation: It was already in Israel in April, but it remained dormant until suddenly cases started to go up in June,” he said. However, a problem that Israel is facing is that with 7,000-8,000 new virus carriers identified every day, the country is not managing to carry out genetic sequences of all new cases, but only of a statistical sample, which does not allow health authorities to keep variants fully monitored. “When we had fewer cases, we managed to sequence almost all of them,” Cohen said. As to how much of a concern the variant is if it were to spread, Cohen said it is too early to tell since information is still very limited. “My impression is that when it comes to antibody protection, it is not going to be an all-or-nothing issue, but rather we are going to retain some form of protection, even if the efficacy of the vaccine turned out to be lower,” Cohen said.

Scientific health policies contain delta variant outbreak in China - In a devastating exposure of anti-scientific policies pursued by Washington and the European powers that have led to millions of COVID-19 infections and deaths, mass implementation of scientific public health policies in China is containing the latest delta variant outbreak there. This highlights the potential for a global campaign of eradication of the virus to end the pandemic, if the resistance of the ruling class internationally to a scientific policy can be smashed.Last month, after a vast public health mobilization ended the epidemic inside China last year, a new outbreak emerged at the Nanjing airport. The delta variant brought aboard Air China flight CA910 from Moscow infected vaccinated maintenance workers at the airport and rapidly spread across China. Detected on July 20, the outbreak had sickened 381 people by the end of July in over a dozen provinces. While the outbreak at its peak infected over 140 people a day, this number is now falling significantly; broad areas of China are reporting no new cases.Overall, there were 29 COVID-19 cases reported across China yesterday. Jiangsu province, where Nanjing is located and which was the outbreak’s initial epicenter, reported only three new cases. Nearby Shanghai recorded two and the southern border province of Yunnan, the next worst-hit in this outbreak after Jiangsu, eight. The southern industrial hub of Guangdong province reported nine. Hunan province, initially badly hit when tourists from Nanjing brought the delta variant there, reported no new cases.While the situation in China remains dangerous, this initial success testifies to the enormous power of scientific methods against even the virulent delta variant. Vaccination and lockdowns of affected city districts—together with mass testing of entire cities, including Nanjing, Wuhan and Yangzhou, to find, isolate and rapidly treat the sick—are stopping a virus that is exploding out of control elsewhere around the world. This comes after the success of the lock-down imposed at the beginning of the pandemic in Wuhan and across Hubei province, from January 23 to April 8 of last year. This strict lockdown, lifted only after new cases of the virus stopped appearing, ended transmission of the coronavirus inside China except for outbreaks imported from outside China’s borders.

Covid crisis in French Polynesia surpasses deadly surge in Caribbean - The Pacific territory of French Polynesia is now reporting 2,731 coronavirus infections for every 100,000 inhabitants, far in excess of the disastrous figures in the French Caribbean territories of Guadeloupe and Martinique. Fewer than 30 percent of French Polynesians have been fully vaccinated.Staff at the hospital in Taaone, Papeete, the capital of French Polynesia, have been forced to install two dozen beds in the entry hall to the establishment, currently submerged by a wave of coronavirus victims.A team of health workers arrived earlier this week from New Caledonia this to help manage the situation.The rate of infection in the Pacific island chain far exceeds the 1,700 cases per 100,000 reported last week in Guadeloupe, and the 1,200 per 100,000 in Martinique, both described as requiring urgent action by French Health Minister, Olivier Véran, on his visit to the Antilles last week.The coronavirus appeared to have been banished from French Polynesia, with practically no local infections reported between March and June.The Delta variant has dramatically changed that picture, with 2,731 cases now being reported for every 100,000 inhabitants. On Wednesday, there were 303 new hospital admissions, 38 to emergency care, and 11 deaths.Schools on the archipelago re-opened last week. Some establishments have been forced to close because of the high number of infections.Polynesians are currently subject to a weekend lockdown and a 9PM to dawn curfew.Less than one-third of the population has been fully vaccinated against Covid-19.According to Dr. Jacques Raynal, the local health minister, "98 percent of those needing emergency care" have not been inoculated.Earlier this month, a wedding party at a French Polynesian restaurant was attended by hundreds of people -- including top local figures -- in defiance of existing rules and with no one wearing masks."We were not exemplary and I am infinitely sorry," said the territory's president Edouard Fritch, who was seen playing the guitar in images of the party that shocked many Polynesians. The mayor of the capital Papeete, Michel Buillard, was pictured providing the vocals.The Indian Ocean island of La Réunion also remains in partial lockdown, a measure which has prompted protests and led to scuffles with the security forces.

 COVID-19: UK records 35,847 new cases and 149 more deaths, daily figures show- The UK has recorded 35,847 new COVID cases and 149 more coronavirus-related deaths in the latest 24-hour period, government data shows. The figures compare with 30,838 infections and 174 fatalities recorded yesterday - the highest daily death total since 12 March. This time last week, 18 August, 33,904 cases and 111 deaths were announced. Since the pandemic began, 132,003 people in the UK have died within 28 days of testing positive for COVID-19 and there have been 6,590,747 lab-confirmed cases. According to the latest data, 859 COVID patients were admitted to hospital on 21 August and there were 6,172 admissions in the last seven days, a rise of 9.4% on the previous week. On Tuesday, 55,410 people were given their first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, taking the total to 47,792,552 - equivalent to 87.9% of the UK's adult population. It comes as new research has found protection from two doses of the Pfizer or AstraZeneca vaccines begins to wane within six months. In a reasonable "worst-case scenario", protection could fall to below 50% for the elderly and healthcare workers by winter, analysis from the Zoe COVID study found. Professor Tim Spector, the lead scientist on the app, told Sky News that protection from vaccines is falling by around 3% per month. Speaking about plans for a booster campaign, Mr Spector says this will have to be done with "precision" to avoid wasting vaccines as having COVID is like having a booster, in terms of impact on immunity. He said booster jabs should be prioritised over vaccinating children if the UK wants to reduce deaths and hospitalisations. Meanwhile, more than 1,000 people who attended Latitude Festival last month have tested positive for the virus. The festival, which ran from 22 to 25 July, was part of the government's Events Research Programme and was attended by about 40,000 people.

 Covid-19 news: NHS England prepares to vaccinate children aged 12-15 - The National Health Service in England is preparing for the possible rollout of vaccines to 12 to 15-year-olds from 6 September, according to media reports. NHS trusts are being told they must have plans ready by 4pm on Friday, The Daily Telegraph reported.The Department of Health has said no decisions have yet been made to extend the vaccine programme to younger people, but said they “continue to plan for a range of scenarios”. So far, vaccines have been offered to people aged 16 and above and children aged 12 to 15 with a high-risk condition or a vulnerable family member. The Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) is still deliberating on broadening the rollout further. Children aged 12 and over are already being vaccinated in the US, Canada, France and the Netherlands.“Either you’re going to be exposed to covid without any protection or you can be exposed and have a vaccine. And we should be offering teens that vaccine so they have that protection before going back into schools,” Devi Sridhar at the University of Edinburgh told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.While younger people are more likely to experience myocarditis, a rare heart side effect, after receiving some of the covid-19 vaccines, a study in the US released earlier this month found that myocarditis is more common after coronavirus infection than vaccination.

Japan suspends 1.63 million doses of Moderna over contamination - Japan suspended use of about 1.63 million doses of Moderna vaccine Thursday after contamination was found in unused vials, raising concern of a supply shortage as the country tries to accelerate vaccinations amid a COVID-19 surge. The health ministry said contamination was reported from multiple vaccination sites. Some doses might have been administered, but no adverse health effects have been reported so far, officials said. Takeda Pharmaceutical Co., a Japanese drugmaker in charge of sales and distribution of the vaccine in Japan, said it decided to suspend use of doses manufactured in the same production line as a safety precaution. It asked Moderna to conduct an emergency investigation and told medical institutions and organizers to stop using the vaccine produced in Spain and shared the production numbers that may be affected. The health ministry and Takeda did not give details on the type of contamination or if the doses in question may have been distributed outside Japan. The Moderna vaccine problem came just as Japan struggles with surging infections, with daily new cases hitting new highs in many parts of the country and severely straining the health care system. Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato told reporters the government and Takeda are discussing ways to minimize the impact on Japan’s vaccination progress. “We will do utmost in order to avoid any impact on vaccination progress, especially at worksites and large-scale centers,” Kato said. Japan relies entirely on foreign-developed vaccines by Moderna, as well as Pfizer Inc. and AstraZeneca. Moderna has been since mid-June at large-scale centers and workplace inoculations and has helped speed up Japan’s rollout. About 43 percent of the Japanese population have been fully vaccinated, with daily doses of about 1 million.

Acetaminophen, ADHD, and Autism - The Incidental Economist – video, Dr. Aaron Carroll - You’ve probably heard before that acetaminophen during pregnancy is associated with symptoms of ADHD and Autism in offspring. Well, we’ve got another study on that association. In today’s episode, we examine that study and revisit why we need to be cautious with observational data. Relative Risks of Acetaminophen, ADHD, and Autism -

Lyme disease cases climb in Pittsburgh. - Outdoor activities are increasingly popular after more than a year of pandemic isolation. However, Pittsburghers face a growing risk of another potentially troubling illness – Lyme disease. “This is the busiest year for Lyme disease that we’ve ever had in the Pittsburgh area,” Dr. Andrew Nowalk, head of UPMC Children's Hospital's Division of Infectious Diseases, said about the increase in pediatric cases.Though ticks that carry the disease are generally found in densely wooded areas, they’ve grown so prominent in the Pittsburgh area that they can show up just about anywhere outside, particularly around dawn and dusk. Children’s Hospital has seen an increase in patients from all across Allegheny County, Nowalk said, from rural areas to the city. Lyme disease can cause serious, long-term illness if untreated. It’s important to understand the risks and symptoms and know what to do if you’ve been bitten.Lyme disease is caused by a bacterium called Borrelia burgdorferi, which is typically transmitted to humans when infected ticks bite and remain attached for more than 36 hours. Every county in Pennsylvania has ticks that carry the disease, according to Acting Physician General Denise Johnson. While not every tick carries disease-causing bacteria, the prevalence of ticks and tick-borne diseases in Pennsylvania have skyrocketed in recent years, particularly in the Pittsburgh area. In 2019, Allegheny County made up a quarter of the state’s cases, recording 2,306 infections out of 9,008 reported statewide, according to the most recent state breakdown. Children’s Hospital in July reported that nearly 700 children have been treated for Lyme disease this year. Since then, that number has continued to rise. “[Cases are] well above 800 and now probably headed toward 1,000 cases before we even hit September,” Nowalk said in mid-August.

West Nile virus detected in Mahoning County (WKBN) – Mahoning County Public Health announced Wednesday that the West Nile Virus has been detected in the county.The virus was found in mosquitoes caught in a surveillance trap. MCPH did not say where the trap was located.However, Austintown Local Schools said they were informed a mosquito trap close to their campus tested positive for the virus. The school district will treat retention ponds on campus as a precaution and will not let students use the wetlands for educational purposes this fall.The three most common mosquito-borne diseases that occur locally are Lacrosse Encephalitis, St. Louis Encephalitis and West Nile Virus.Early symptoms of mosquito-borne disease may include nausea, fever, vomiting, and headache.More serious cases include drowsiness, stiff neck, disorientation, tremors, and possibly seizures.

First human case of West Nile virus in Baltimore, MDH confirms— An adult living in the Baltimore metropolitan area has tested positive for West Nile virus.The Maryland Department of Health announced Wednesday that this is the first confirmed human case of the virus in the state this year."This is the season when we start to see West Nile virus spread in Maryland, so we urge people to be vigilant and take steps to avoid infection," MDH Deputy Secretary for Public Health, Dr. Jinlene Chan said. "Disease surveillance teams are closely monitoring increasing numbers of infected mosquitoes that have turned up in several areas across the state."West Nile virus is transmitted to humans by mosquitoes who have been infected by feeding on birds who have the virus. In rare instances, the virus may be spread from person to person through organ donation, blood transfusion, breastfeeding, or from pregnant mother to fetus.While most people do not develop symptoms from the virus, the MDH said some people who develop illness may experience mild symptoms such as fever, headache, and body aches; occasionally a skin rash and swollen lymph glands may be noticed. Those symptoms may last a few days or as long as several weeks. Those who are older than 50 or have immunocompromised conditions can become seriously ill.

Increase of West Nile Virus cases reported in North Dakota - The North Dakota Department of Health (NDDoH) has seen a rise in reported West Nile virus cases in recent weeks. State health officials are reminding people to continue taking precautions against mosquito bites that can cause WNV infection.As of August 25, 2021, North Dakota confirmed five human WNV cases, with six pending further results. Of the five cases, four were hospitalized and three were neuroinvasive cases. Of the six pending, two are hospitalized. In addition to human cases, two horses, one bird and 16 mosquito pools have also tested positive for WNV. “People should be aware of the increase in mosquitoes spreading West Nile virus and take proper precautions to protect themselves from bites,” said Amanda Bakken, epidemiologist with the NDDoH. “Peak WNV activity historically has occurred in August. This is the time to be vigilant and take precautions, not just when people are aware mosquitoes are biting them.”

Invasive Emerald Ash Borers Destroy Millions of Trees — Scientists Seek to Control Them With Parasitic Wasps - The emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis) is a deceptively attractive metallic-green adult beetle with a red abdomen. But few people ever actually see the insect itself – just the trail of destruction it leaves behind under the bark of ash trees. These insects, which are native to Asia and Russia, were first discovered in Michigan in 2002. Since then they have spread to 35 states and become the most destructive and costly invasive wood-boring insect in U.S. history. They have also been detected in the Canadian provinces of Ontario, Quebec, Manitoba, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. In 2021 the U.S. Department of Agriculture stopped regulating the movement of ash trees and wood products in infested areas because the beetles spread rapidly despite quarantine efforts. Now federal regulators and researchers are pursuing a different strategy: biological control. Scientists think that tiny parasitic wasps, which prey on emerald ash borers in their native range, hold the key to curbing this invasive species and returning ash trees to North American forests. I study invasive forest insects and work with the USDA to develop easier ways of raising emerald ash borers and other invasive insects in research laboratories. This work is critical for discovering and testing ways to better manage forest recovery and prevent future outbreaks. But while the emerald ash borer has spread uncontrollably in nature, producing a consistent laboratory supply of these insects is surprisingly challenging – and developing an effective biological control program requires a lot of target insects. Researchers believe the emerald ash borer likely arrived in the U.S. on imported wood packaging material from Asia sometime in the 1990s. The insects lay eggs in the bark crevices of ash trees; when larva hatch, they tunnel through the bark and feed on the inner layer of the tree. Their impact becomes apparent when the bark is peeled back, revealing dramatic feeding tracks. These channels damage the trees' vascular tissue – internal networks that transport water and nutrients – and ultimately kill the tree. Before this invasive pest appeared on the scene, ash trees were particularly popular for residential developments, representing 20-40% of planted trees in some Midwestern communities. Emerald ash borers have killed tens of millions of U.S. trees with an estimated replacement cost of U.S.$10-25 billion. Ash wood is also popular for lumber used in furniture, sports equipment and paper, among many other products. The ash timber industry produces over 100 million board feet annually, valued at over $25 billion.

'Ban Neonicotinoids Right Now,' Say Conservationists After EPA Pesticide Review -Environmental and food safety advocates highlighted Thursday the decline in iconic pollinators following new analyses released by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency showing three widely used neonicotinoid insecticides are "likely to adversely affect" the majority of the endangered plants and animals the agency assessed."Now the EPA can't ignore the fact that these popular insecticides are wiping out our country's most endangered plants and animals," Lori Ann Burd, environmental health director at the Center for Biological Diversity, said in a statement."Neonicotinoids are used so widely, and in such large quantities," she said, "that even the EPA's industry-friendly pesticide office had to conclude that few endangered species can escape their toxic effects."Burd's comments came in response to draft biological evaluations for three neonicotinoids, or "neonics," which are: clothianidin, imidacloprid and thiamethoxam. The evaluations, which now face a 60-day public comment period, were required by settlements the agency reached earlier this year with NRDC and the Center for Food Safety (CFS).Neonics have come under the repeated scrutiny of environmental watchdogs and scientists, with previous studies linking their use to harm to insects, including bees and butterflies, as well as birds and freshwater marine species. In its Thursday statement, the Center for Biologicical Diversity summarized the EPA's damning findings on the neonics' adverse impacts to threatened species and their habitats : Nearly 80% of all endangered species—1,445 different kinds of plants and animals—are likely to be "adversely affected" by imidacloprid, and the pesticide will adversely modify the designated critical habitats of 658 species.For thiamethoxam, 1,396 (77% of all) endangered species are likely to be adversely affected, and the pesticide will adversely modify the designated critical habitats of 644 species. About two thirds of all endangered species, 1,225, are likely to be adversely affected by clothianidin, and the pesticide will adversely modify the designated critical habitats of 644 species.CFS also noted the "remarkable levels of harm" the evaluations found with regards to the neonics.According to George Kimbrell, legal director of the group, the analyses "confirm what scientists have told EPA and industry for over a decade: These extremely toxic pesticides are causing drastic ecological harm, both the collapse of bee populations as well as putting literally hundreds of endangered species at extinction risk across the country."

Light Pollution Linked to Nearly 50% Decline in Insect Populations - Scientists have grown increasingly alarmed about the decline in insect populations worldwide. While some causes — like pesticide use, habitat loss and the climate crisis — are clear, other potential factors, like artificial light at night (ALAN), are more nebulous.Now, researchers writing in Science Advances Wednesday told BBC News they have found the strongest evidence yet that nighttime lights really are leading to the decline of local insect populations. In some of the areas they studied, the presence of light decreased moth caterpillar populations by nearly 50 percent."We were really quite taken aback by just how stark it was," lead study author Douglas Boyes from UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology told AFP.Previous studies have shown that ALAN can have numerous negative impacts on insects, including increasing their risk of being eaten by predators and disrupting their reproduction and pollination, the study authors noted."Yet," they continued, "it remains unclear whether the effects of ALAN are predominately disruptive impacts on the behavior of individuals or whether ALAN is actively diminishing the populations of pollinators and insect populations more broadly."To answer this question the researchers compared the populations of caterpillars at hedgerows and grass margins at 26 sites along lit and unlit roads, BBC News explained. What they found is that there were 47 percent fewer caterpillars in the lit hedgerows and 33 percent fewer caterpillars in the lit grass margins.In a separate experiment, they also set up lights on fields and found that there were fewer caterpillars under LED lights, suggesting the lights were disrupting feeding."In a local setting we can now be quite confident that light pollution is important, but what's less clear is if we're looking at a whole landscape," Boyes told BBC News.One important aspect of the study is that the caterpillars were more impacted by LED lights than high-pressure sodium (HPS) lamps or older low-pressure sodium (LPS) lamps that create a yellow-orange light, AFP reported. This is troubling because LED lights have grown more popular in recent years because they are more energy efficient.

Air Pollution From Household Products Is Cutting People’s Lives Short - A specific component of air particle pollution found in some common household products could be responsible for up to 900,000 premature deaths every year — 10 times greater than previous estimates, according to new research published in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. While the majority of these components, referred to as anthropogenic secondary organic aerosols (ASOAs), are produced during the combustion of fossil fuels, some come from everyday use products, such as cleaning supplies, pesticides, or household paint."All those different smells you're getting from paint are different [volatile organic compounds] that are being emitted" into the air, Benjamin Nault, a research scientist at Aerodyne Research, Inc. and lead author of the study, told EHN. Once released, these gases, also known as VOCs, can transform into a new subset of stickier chemicals which clump together to form ASOAs.Even though the majority of these compounds are produced indoors — and can play a role in creating poor indoor air quality — they will eventually escape outside through open windows or miniscule cracks in the foundation. In urban areas, ASOAs can make up a significant portion of the more commonly known pollutant, fine particulate matter (PM2.5). "There's more people living in urban areas," Nault explains — more than 50% of the world's population, to be exact. With more people, "you need more of these everyday use products to paint all the apartments and townhouses, to put the asphalt down, [and] to clean everything up," said Nault. Urban populations are expected to increase by 150% by 2045. Inhaling any type of particle — but especially PM 2.5 — can be detrimental to human health. According to the American Lung Association, potential health effects caused by prolonged exposure to PM 2.5 could include reduced lung function, the development of lung cancer, and an increased risk of death from cardiovascular disease. Because of this, many countries have developed laws that restrict the amount of particle-forming VOCs that can be released into the air. In the U.S., the creation of these regulations — especially those that have targeted transportation — have led to a nation-wide improvement in air quality. Unfortunately, the same can't be said for the pollution created from these everyday consumer items, which are also referred to as volatile chemical products (VCPs).

 The effects of COVID-19 litter on animal life (photos and list) During the COVID-19 pandemic, Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) is massively used, resulting in a new wave of litter: protective face masks and gloves. These products that are designed to keep us safe, are actually harming animals around us. Here we present the first overview of all cases of entanglement, entrapment, and ingestion of COVID-19 litter, as well as the inclusion of gloves and face masks in bird nests. If you find any new interactions online or observe them yourself, please share your observation below. Read our paper. Nature photographers, wildlife rescue centers, litter pickers, google detectives and social media heroes, we encourage everyone to share observations of animals interacting with PPE litter like entanglement, ingestion, entrapment, carrying PPE litter, playing with it or using it as nesting material. Feel free to add your own observations or add new examples - from your local or national news, or social media - that are currently missing in the global overview. Let us know!

Biden Admin Backs Trump's Decision to Strip Wolves of Endangered Species Act Protections- - The Biden administration has signalled that it will uphold the Trump administration's decision to strip graywolves of Endangered Species Act protections, despite concerns about more aggressive hunting policies being adopted by some states.Administration lawyers asked a federal judge in California Friday to reject a lawsuit brought by environmental groups seeking to restore protections, signaling the new administration's decision and prompting an outcry from the activists behind the suit."The Biden administration has betrayed its duty to protect and recover wolves," Earthjustice attorney Kristen Boyles said in a statement. "The Fish and Wildlife Service has the power to stop the immoral killing of wolves right now, and its refusal to act violates the law and the best science, as well as its treaty obligations to tribal nations."The decision comes as states in the western Great Lakes and northern Rocky Mountains have responded to the delisting with aggressive wolf hunting seasons. In Wisconsin, for example, as many as a third of the state's wolves died after the state's first hunting season in February of 2021.In response to the news, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) assistant director for Ecological Services Gary Frazer told AP News that delisting the species was the right thing to do and had been in the works for many years before Trump's final decision. However, he acknowledged that he was worried about some of the hunting policies being put in place by states where wolves are present.In addition to the Wisconsin wolf hunt, Idaho and Montana have legalized tactics such as hunting wolves at night and from the air, as well as bounties for killed wolves.

Doctor explains why 21 human feet in sneakers may have washed on shore --There’s been a string of disturbing findings on beaches in British Columbia and Washington state for more than a decade. Since 2007, nearly two dozen human feet have been found in sneakers completely unattached to bodies on the coasts of the Salish Sea in the U.S. and Canada. One of the more recent discoveries occurred in Everett, Wash., in 2019 when beachgoers discovered a human foot inside a shoe on New Year’s Day. While the strange phenomenon may prompt wild speculation of some kind of murderer on the loose, authorities in many cases have been able to link the body parts to people involved in accidents or suicides as the discoveries have become more common over recent years. But why are the feet emerging from the depths to make their way back to land? Dr. Karan Raj, a surgeon with the National Health Service (NHS) in the United Kingdom who has more than 4 million TikTok followers, explains it has to do with how sea scavengers break down bodies and modern sneaker design. “It was actually because of the footwear industry. When a human corpse sinks to the bottom of the ocean it’s quickly set upon by scavengers,” Raj said in a TikTok video with nearly 100,000 views. “These scavengers are lazy feeders, they prefer to tackle the softer parts of our body than the tough grisly bits. Some of the softest parts of us are the soft tissues and ligaments around our ankles,” he said. Raj said scavengers can take the feet off the rest of the body fairly quickly. “The reason it’s happened more since 2007 is due to the change in sneaker design. Over the last few decades shoes have become more buoyant, as a result we could be seeing more severed feet wash up on our shores,” he said.

Stink, Sulfur and Soot: Billionaire Kraft Deals an Air Pollution Crisis to South Carolina- - In less than a year, a South Carolina paper mill has become one of the dirtiest polluters in the United States.The plant is spewing high and dangerous amounts of smelly hydrogen sulfide gas and soot into the air above Catawba, South Carolina and nearby counties. While emergency orders have been issued to stop the smell created by the New-Indy Containerboard paper mill, no regulatory actions have been taken to curb their air pollution.Issues began after an investment group led by Robert Kraft, the billionaire owner of the New England Patriots football team, acquired the mill in 2019 for about $300 million, Reuters reported. It was previously owned and run by Montreal-based Resolute Forest Products Inc.Towards the end of 2020, the plant shut down to convert to making cardboard instead of bleached paper products. This manufacturing switch also led to a build up of fiber waste in collection bins, which likely elevated levels of hydrogen sulfide output, a New-Indy corrective action plan filed with regulators said, Reuters reported."Hydrogen sulfide is a gas formed by decaying organic matter — in this case waste from the paper mill,"WFAE reported. According to the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), absorbing hydrogen sulfide through the skin or inhaling it can cause everything from nausea and headaches to skin and eye irritation to delirium and convulsions.In February, the New-Indy plant reopened after completing its processing conversion, and complaints began pouring in of a noxious smell, reported WBTV."Sour, pungent, sharp distinct smell," said Bridget Francis, who also lives in the nearby Legacy Park neighborhood, reported WBTV in March. The news agency described the fumes as "a smell so strong it is almost indescribable" and likened it to "rotten eggs, nail polish, sewage and more."In March, the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control (DHEC) told WBTV that the smell was not toxic and that they thought it could be related to the paper plant switching from white to cardboard processing. Nevertheless, DHEC set up a complaints hotline. Since its inception in March, over 30,000 complaints have been filed about the smell, some even from North Carolinians. And, the issue wasn't just an olfactory nuisance: Some residents reported symptoms of nausea, headaches and burning in their eyes, throats and lungs, WBTV reported. These are the same symptoms that the CDC associates with exposure to hydrogen sulfide.

Intense cold front affecting South Africa, warnings for disruptive snowfall and severe thunderstorms - An intense cold front associated with a steep upper-air trough is affecting parts of South Africa since Thursday, August 26, 2021. The front is spreading eastwards, bringing heavy rains, disruptive snow, and cold temperatures. A change in weather conditions is expected from Monday, August 30.

• A Yellow level 4 Warning for Disruptive snowfall is in effect for parts of KwaZulu-Natal on Saturday, August 28. Impacts expected include loss of vulnerable livestock, closure of mountain passes and temporary closures of roads, major traffic disruptions, and temporarily cut-off communities. The warning is valid from 12:00 UTC on August 28 to 01:00 UTC on August 29.
• A Yellow level 4 Warning for Severe thunderstorms is in effect along the escarpment areas of Mpumalanga on Saturday afternoon into the evening. Hail, strong and damaging winds, and heavy downpours are possible. The warning is valid from 12:00 to 23:00 UTC on August 28.

"Cold to very cold temperatures are expected over the central, southern, and western parts of the country from Friday into Saturday (August 27 - 28, 2021). Atmospheric conditions will become ideal for widespread snowfall to occur over the high-lying areas of the Cape provinces during Friday. Snowy conditions will subsequently spread to KwaZulu-Natal and Lesotho on Saturday," the South African Weather Service (SAWS) said.¹ SAWS said it expects disruptive snowfalls of 5 to 10 cm (2 - 4 inches) from Friday onwards over the high-lying areas of the Western Cape as well as the western and southern high-lying areas of the Northern Cape.Heavier snowfall of 10 to 20 cm (4 - 8 inches) is also likely over the extreme south-western parts of the Northern Cape (including the Nuweveld and Roggeveld mountains) as well as the Cederberg and Hex River mountains of the Western Cape.

Bill Gates Should Stop Telling Africans What Kind of Agriculture Africans Need - Africans have long been told that our agriculture is backward and should be abandoned for a 21st-century version of the Green Revolution that enabled India to feed itself. Western science and technology, in the form of seeds modified by science and technology, synthetic fertilizers and pesticides, petroleum-fueled machinery and artificial irrigation were key to that miracle, we are informed, and we too need to tread that path. A primary proponent of this view is the Cornell Alliance for Science(CAS), founded in 2014 to “depolarize the charged debate” around genetically modified (GM) seeds. With $22 million in funding thus far from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the CAS in fact consistently defends GM seeds, arguing that they are healthy, productive and environmentally friendly, while attacking agroecology as economically and socially regressive. In contrast,the Alliance for Food Sovereignty in Africa (AFSA), which represents more than 200 million farmers, fishers, pastoralists, indigenous peoples, women, consumers and others across all but five African countries, holds that agroecology is what our continent needs. Small-scale, ecofriendly cultivation methods using indigenous knowledge and inputs and cutting-edge science increase the variety, nutritive value and quantity of foods produced on farms while stabilizing rural economies, promoting gender equity and protecting biodiversity. This mission has put our alliance, the largest social movement in Africa, at odds with the CAS and by extension the Gates Foundation. And they are winning. On June 17, 2021, GRAIN, a small nonprofit organization based in Barcelona, Spain, tracking the foundation’s grant from 2003 to 2020, reported that, the foundation has granted 6 billion USD, 5 billion of which was supposed to serve Africa. More worrisome, the CAS, which characterizes AFSA’s interpretation of agroecology as “restrictive” and worse, has succeeded in undermining support for the paradigm among Africa’s scientists and political leaders. Those of us at AFSA, in contrast, see our version of agroecology as liberating—based on farmers’ rights to choose seeds and methods of cultivation, and free of corporate interference and control. Hunger in Africa derives from a single factor, CAS fellows argue: crop yields are relatively low. The reason is, first, that seeds bred and shared by farmers are unproductive, in their opinion; these should be replaced by GMOs. Second, African farmers do not use enough agrochemicals, a deficit that also needs remedy. And third, African farmers cultivate a multitude of crops to feed their families; if instead they focus on growing commodity crops for pan-African and global markets, they will get far better yields while addressing their nutrition and health concerns. Fortified by linkages with another organization funded by the Gates Foundation, the Open Forum on Agriculture Biotechnology (OFAB), CAS fellows end up narrowing the democratic space for discussion of food systems in African countries. Opposing points of view areirrational, unscientific and harmful, they often insist. OFAB is anoffshoot of the African Agricultural Technology Foundation, which was born in 2001 out of negotiations to promote GM seeds in Africa between the Rockefeller Foundation and corporations including Monsanto, Dupont, Pioneer and Syngenta. To our minds, these and other connections suggest that the Gates Foundation’s resources help further the interests of multinational corporations interested in opening our markets for agrochemicals, synthetic fertilizers and genetically engineered seeds more than they assist farmers.

 A Little Bit Can Go A Long Way - Economist-Farmer Michael Smith gives us a view of how serious the drought conditions are and the impact on the nations agriculture.Post after post of hydraulic shovels pulling orchards up in California, news of the large almond producers having to cull hundreds of acres at a time to divert water and resources to other parts of their farms. We saw the Midwest run hot and dry all summer and when harvest season arrived, monsoon rains made harvest impossible. Even in parts of Canada we are hearing about exceptional drought, heat waves, and Greenland losing surface ice at an alarming rate. Mexico, where about half of our produce comes from, varying by crop is at a 75% drought rate with exception drought now plaguing 25% of the country. Mexico also consumes everything they produce, and as yield decreases so do their exports to us. We also have reports from Chile and Argentina of drought conditions so bad that rivers are at an 80 year low. All of the productive regions that the United States relies upon to feed our population are in some sort of drought, severe drought, and/or active decline into desertification.We are now well into a 20 year stretch that recently warranted NOAA to update their models. This constant barrage of data points has had journalists and average Joe’s preach the ho-hum pessimism of “were already screwed so why bother”. Why bother . . . Why bother?What most folks don’t realize is how little farmable land it takes to feed people. For every quarter acre, we can successfully supply 25 families with fresh produce every week. There are only two times in the year during the very hot and the very cold where we have to shut down deliveries. Its hot, that’s one reason, but we still have pumpkins, squash, tomatoes, and watermelon.Another reason we stop delivering is time. The fall crop of 120 day cultivars we are babysitting through to get pumpkins by October. This is time intensive. In the future we will not be able to do this and will have to push back to late November (this will be our last year, the water price to have Jack-o-lanterns is too high). Also we have to dedicate time to disc the next field and seed a cover for November forage. We also canned and, in theory could continue to sustain folks in those two off months, if my kid would stop eating all of the pasta, sauce, and pickles we produced and had in dry storage. If we do the math, one acre of planted assorted fruits, vegetables, herbs, and whatever the farmer fancies, can sustain 100 CSA customers per year. We can also devote another acre for meat and egg production with no more than 1,000 pounds of rumen per acre. Renderable meat production we can process out around 60% of that 1,000 pounds.

Northern California wildfire continues to grow - The Caldor Fire has continued to grow in Northern California as rescue crews struggle to contain it, The Associated Press reported. The wildfire has covered 154 square miles of land in the northern Sierra Nevada region since last week and officials said Sunday there was zero containment of the blaze. This summer’s wildfires have burned up to 700 homes and left 13,000 residences in neighboring communities under threat, according to the AP. Local rescue and fire crews had hoped cooler temperatures and calm weather could help them battle the wildfire, but winds sent embers flying and created new ignition points, according to the AP. “We know this fire has done things that nobody could have predicted, but that’s how firefighting has been in the state this year,” Eldorado National Forest Supervisor Chief Jeff Marsolais said. There are 94 active wildfires happening in the country, according to the National Interagency Fire Center. Evacuation orders have been placed in Kern County due to the risk of wildfires in the rural communities, the AP reported. Nine national forests have been closed down due to the threat of wildfires, the AP noted.

Wildfire smoke leads to worst air quality on record in Nevada counties - - Wildfires continuing to spread across California have pushed smoke across to neighboring states, with several Nevada counties reporting their worst air quality index (AQI) levels on record this week. The Air Quality Management Division of Nevada’s Washoe County, home to Reno, on Tuesday reported an AQI number of 289, falling within the range of government agencies consider to be “very unhealthy.” The county shared images on Twitter of the same area in Reno, with one taken last month showing a clear mountain view, and the other taken Tuesday showing it darkened and clouded with smoke. Washoe County said that Monday’s 24-hour AQI average was 291, beating the 251 record established the previous day. AQI numbers ranging from 201 to 300 are considered “very unhealthy,” while 301 and higher are labeled as “hazardous.” “Very Unhealthy to Hazardous air quality due to #CaldorFire smoke is continuing to impact Washoe County,” the agency tweeted. “#BeSmokeSmart everyone should be staying indoors and doing only light activity when inside.” The county agency said in a follow-up tweet that the levels of fine particle matter (PM) were also reaching high levels, writing, “the top 10 worst PM2.5 daily average AQIs have now all occurred within the last 11 months." The Washoe County School District closed all public schools Monday in Reno, Sparks and Incline Village at Lake Tahoe due to concerns on air quality posing safety hazards for young people, according to The Associated Press. Clark County, which includes Las Vegas, also issued a smoke advisory Tuesday, which was eventually extended into Wednesday due to concerns on continued dust particles and other pollutants to which people with respiratory issues may be particularly sensitive.

California’s Caldor fire burns 100,000 acres as it rips through small towns - The raging Caldor fire in northern California has burned more than 100,000 acres and destroyed more than 500 structures after surging over the weekend.Fueled by warm winds and drought-stricken vegetation, the fire, burning south-west of Lake Tahoe, surged through more than 30,000 acres in two days and by Monday morning had consumed about 106,500 acres.Crews battling the blaze achieved 5% containment, helped by moderate humidity and lower overnight temperatures that helped calm the fire on Sunday night, but officials said the firefight through steep rugged terrain has been difficult.“These are very, very dry, drought-ridden areas that we are dealing with,” said Diana Swart, a spokesperson for the Amador El Dorado unit of Cal Fire. She said the forest understory was filled with dense layers of dead and dry leaves, branches and stumps. “Everything is primed to start – we just haven’t had enough water,” she said.More than 13,500 firefighters were working to contain a dozen large fires inCalifornia. Gavin Newsom, the state governor, requested that Joe Biden issue a major disaster declaration for eight counties, which would provide a wide range of assistance.Nearly 43,000 Californians were under under evacuation orders and more than 500 households were in shelters, officials said. And the dense smoke created hazardous air quality in the Reno-Tahoe area of western Nevada on Monday, canceling flights and forcing the closure of schools, parks and popular summer beaches.Government air monitors were recording some of the region’s most hazardous conditions in years. Forecasters said little relief was expected in western Nevada through midweek.Many communities in California remain under threat from the fast-moving flames. Already, close to 2,000 homes and other structures have been destroyed in the state, according to the state’s department of forestry and fire protection (Cal Fire), and the count continues.Of those, 551 have been counted in the Caldor fire burn scar, which ripped through small towns tucked into the forested mountainsides in El Dorado county. The blaze, which erupted on 14 August, quickly exploded in size, overwhelming the few-hundred firefighters and other personnel fighting to contain it early on. Officials at the time noted that it was difficult to deploy enough resources from the start with so many other big fires burning across the region.“A drawdown on resources is definitely a factor,” Swart said, mentioning the Dixie fire, which has burned more than 725,800 acres to the north and threatens homes in five counties. More than 6,000 personnel are fighting to wrangle the blaze, which is now the largest single fire ever recorded in California and is 40% contained.

Caldor Fire now nation's 'number-one priority' as it nears Tahoe - Uncomfortably close to Lake Tahoe, the Caldor Fire is now the nation’s top-priority wildfire — underscoring the potential damage it could yet unleash even as weather conditions improve and resources continue to flow to the area. The fire, which has destroyed more than 550 buildings in El Dorado County, had ignited 114,166 acres by Monday night as officials continued to sound alarms. The blaze has such destructive potential that it has jumped to the front of the line when it comes to allocating personnel, fire trucks, aircraft and other tools from around the country, Cal Fire Chief Thom Porter said during a briefing Monday.“It is that important,” he said. “It is knocking on the door to the Lake Tahoe basin. We have all efforts in place to keep it out of the basin, but we do also need to be aware that that is a possibility based on the way the fires have been burning.” Officials had reason to be optimistic the fire wouldn’t make it that far. Winds that had been propelling the blaze forward have died down and are expected to remain low for the next few days, said Cal Fire Captain Keith Wade. Firefighters hit a milestone Sunday night when they managed to contain 5% of the fire — the first time in more than a week they’ve had any part of the fire controlled — and Wade expects that percentage to increase in coming days. By Monday night, containment had risen to 9% with an estimated containment date of August 31.Firefighters are now taking advantage of low winds to ignite controlled burns that will dispose of dry fuel before the Caldor Fire can reach it, Wade said. And the smoky air that had grounded Cal Fire aircraft has cleared enough to allow airdrops of water and fire retardant to resume. Officials even have deployed new night-flying helicopters from Southern California.But the people who have lost their homes remain stuck in limbo, waiting in evacuation shelters, trailers, hotels and friends’ homes, unable to return to their properties, assess the damage and make plans either to rebuild or move on. Tobe Magidson is determined to rebuild and help his neighbors do the same. After eight months of renovations he did himself, Magidson, a 44-year-old contractor, moved into his new Grizzly Flats house in early August. Less than two weeks later, it burned to the ground along with much of the neighborhood.The Caldor Fire ignited Aug. 14 and it is one of four major wildfires in Northern California. Overall, according to Cal Fire, 13 major wildfires are still active in California and have burned through 1.54 million acres — more than twice the size of Yosemite.“Fires are burning in ways that nobody has seen before,” Porter said.The Dixie Fire, the largest of those blazes, had burned more than 725,000 acres Monday. The blaze has b urned for 40 days, and crews had contained 40% of it.

Lake Tahoe shrouded in smoke as Caldor Fire closes in | AccuWeather - "It is hard to breathe out here," Aaron Hagar said as he recorded video of the scene around him. "It is fuunnky," he added, dragging out the first syllable for emphasis. Hagar is one of many residents in El Dorado County, California, choking on poor air quality under a smoke-filled sky. As the Caldor Fire blazes nearby, Hagar pulled out of his camera on Aug. 18 and recorded footage of what appeared to be snow falling from the sky.But it was certainly not any wintry precipitation.“I mean, they’re big, right?” Hagar said as he pointed to a piece of ash on the ground. He later added, “I guess the fire is still a ways from us, but it is just blowing stuff all over us all day. Look at that, that’s all ash. Man, that’s scary.”Scary indeed, as evidenced by the recent Stage 3 Emergency Episode issuance from the Washoe County Health District - Air Quality Management Division. The Stage 3 level was reached when the Air Quality Index (AQI) topped 200 for a 24-hour period. That threshold, which had never been reached before, was met on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday of this week.AQI is a helpful metric to be viewed as a yardstick that runs from 0 to 500,AirNow.gov says. It is an index used by officials to communicate how concentrated and enduring the pollutants in the air are.Before the Caldor Fire, health officials in the Lake Tahoe area had never seen the AQI top 200. On Monday, it nearly reached 300."On the 22nd, we had a 24-hour AQI of 251, on the 23rd we had a 24-hour AQI of 291 and then yesterday our 24-hour AQI was 260," Craig Petersen, a Senior Air Quality Specialist with the Washoe County Health District, told AccuWeather on Wednesday. "So basically all three of those days are our top three AQIs that we've seen since measuring ... since 1999."Essentially, it's fair to say this is the worst air quality the region has ever seen.The Caldor Fire has been burning since Aug. 14 and exploded in size shortly after ignition due to untimely winds. According to Cal Fire, the blaze has consumed more than 136,000 acres in El Dorado County, and more than 630 structures have been destroyed, according to Cal Fire.The Caldor Fire has grown to more than 120,000 acres, destroying over 600 structures, forcing evacuations in two counties, and leading to record-breaking smoke across state lines in Nevada.Those same winds that fueled the fire's spread have also been responsible for the suffocating smoke and hazardous air quality warnings.At Lake Tahoe, a state park beloved for its picturesque mountain views and beautiful trails, officials from Nevada State Parks closed access to the lands until Friday, The Associated Press reported, including the popular beach at Sand Harbor. In the surrounding area, the Washoe County School District canceled classes on Monday for its public schools that serve over 67,000 students. At one point on Tuesday evening, Tahoe Vista, a scenic destination spot on the north shore of Lake Tahoe, recorded an AQI score of 415, CBS News reported. The Caldor Fire is burning less than 20 miles west of the state park, and evacuation orders could be necessary if the current warnings are upgraded. "If it goes into an evacuation order, there will be a warning for some portion the South Lake Tahoe basin," Sgt. Eric Palmberg of the El Dorado County Sheriff’s Office said on Tuesday night, according to SFGate.com. "I don't have the information on where exactly where that will be, but ultimately that will be the trigger." Underneath the dangerously orange-painted skies, Petersen said residents need to do all they can to avoid being out in the conditions.

Residents returning to Clearlake find destroyed homes in Cache Fire - Cal fire is working to contain the Cache Fire a day after it scorched more than 80 acres and burned nearly 60 homes. Some residents made it back to their neighborhoods on Thursday only to find their homes were destroyed. Within the burn zone of the Cache Fire, the remains of the dozens of homes destroyed in the Creekside Mobile Home Community on Dam Road are still smoldering. At a 5 p.m. news conference, Lake County sheriff's and fire department officials said the initial call about the fire was for an oven fire at 6th Avenue and Cache Street. The fire has been 30% to 40 % contained. In addition to the homes lost, 158 vehicles were destroyed. Fortunately there are no known fatalities or reports of missing persons. With most of the roads in the area blocked, resident A.J. said he had a difficult time finding his way in. When he did, he confirmed his home was one of the ones destroyed. "Yeah, my home is right where the Y is right there, if you go left, it's the second one on the right," said A.J. "It's gone." A.J. said he was out Wednesday afternoon when the fire broke out and didn't learn about the fire or evacuation orders until he tried to get home. "I was at the Dollar General parking lot giving someone a ride, and on our way back saw smoke," said A.J. "I thought it was actually out there a ways, but got closer and realized how close it was. They already had this shut down, couldn't even get out here." He says he's had a few close calls with wildfires in years past, but this one destroyed everything. "It's like they watch the patterns and see what hasn't burned yet, you know?" A.J. said.

Caldor Fire advances on Lake Tahoe, new evacuations near Basin area - - People living above the ridge of the Lake Tahoe Basin are being forced to evacuate due to the advancing Caldor Fire on Thursday. Evacuation orders were extended for the area between Twin Bridges and Echo Summit. The initial evacuation warnings were for the Tahoe Basin itself. The 136,643-acre fire in El Dorado County has already forced more than 24,000 people from their homes and is in its 12th day of burning. The fire has produced some of the nation's worst air quality and is 12% contained. As many as 640 homes and other businesses were destroyed as the fire ripped through Grizzly Flats when it first began. Highway 50 in the area remains shut down.In the latest development, officials with the Lake Tahoe Unified School District said on Thursday that the start of the school year would be postponed a week due to the massive wildfire. Earlier in the week, tourists from out-of-state reported that ash rained from above onto their food as they ate. But one day later, the situation became more serious with Kirkwood Mountain Resort tweeting that they were closing as of Aug. 26 due to an evacuation warning from the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. One group had to shift their wedding plans several hours away to the San Francisco Bay Area where the air quality has been considerably better. The weather forecast does not bode well for improvement. It calls for shifting winds and rising temperatures. Forecasters on Thursday said winds that have been blowing from the west and southwest are changing to north and northeast, and new fire weather watches will take effect. The Caldor Fire remains the top wildfire priority in the nation. Nearly 2,900 firefighters are on the lines. One fire official made a grim assessment when they said, "the fire has simply outpaced us."

A look at 3 California wildfires: Dixie, Caldor, Cache --- Firefighters in California were beating back 15 fires as of Thursday, including three blazes that were greatly affecting the northern part of the state, and where smoke from many of them wafted into the Bay Area, causing days of air quality advisories. Thousands of people have been evacuated, hundreds of structures have been destroyed, but to date, miraculously, no one has died in any of t hem. Here's a look at the three most significant ones to the Bay Area:

• Cache Fire: This fire is the most recent, erupting Wednesday afternoon in Lake County. While it has charred a relatively small area of 80 acres, it already has destroyed at least 60 mobile homes situated at the Creekside Mobile Home trailer park near Clearlake. "All you heard was explosion after explosion cause they're all on propane tanks," said Todd Koerlin of Clearlake, who lived there. Up to 1,600 people were evacuated, but many were allowed to return home by Wednesday night. It wasn't immediately clear how this fire started. As of Thursday, it was 35% to 40% contained, up from 20% the evening before. Clearlake takes direct hit in Cache Fire, at least 60 homes destroyedOfficials say the City of Clearlake lost at least 60 homes in the rapidly developing Cache Fire.
• Caldor Fire: This fire is still raging through the Sierra Nevada, specifically in El Dorado County, which incinerated the rural town of Grizzly Flats. It began Saturday as a vegetation fire and exploded over the weekend. More than 5,000 residents were evacuated from El Dorado County, mostly Pollack Pines, and some parts of Amador County fell under an evacuation warning. Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency for this fire on Tuesday. Cal Fire’s Amador-El Dorado Unit said there were at least two civilian injuries from the Caldor Fire, both described as serious and requiring airlifting to hospitals. Eldorado National Forest was closed. As of Thursday, it had burned about 68,630 acres and was 0% containment. This fire is east of Sacramento. Enormous wall of Caldor Fire flames consumes Grizzly FlatsTwo weeks after the Dixie Fire destroyed most of the Gold Rush-era town of Greenville, the Caldor Fire a few miles southeast exploded through tinder-dry trees and ravaged Grizzly Flats, a forest community of around 1,200 people.
• Dixie Fire:This fire is the largest and the oldest blaze, and became California's single largest wildfire blaze on Aug. 9. As of Thursday, it has charred 699,666 acres surpassing the earlier reported size of 1,000 square miles, the size of the state of Rhode Island. The fire began a month ago. So far, it has destroyed about 1,200 structures. It swept through the small Gold Rush-era town of Greenville and Canyondam, essentially wiping them out. Lassen Volcanic National Park has been closed.The fire originated and initially spread in a steep area near the Feather River Canyon.Fire crews were able to make some progress on Wednesday, increasing containment to 35%, where it remained Thursday evening. Some evacuation orders were lifted in Plumas and Tehama counties, where some people hadn’t seen their homes for a month. The other counties affected are Butte and Lassen.

With wildfire threatening, Lake Tahoe prepares for emergency (AP) — The decision to flee their home Thursday in the mountains above Lake Tahoe became clear when Johnny White and Lauren McCauley could see flames on the webcam at their local ski resort. Even as ash rained down under a cloud of heavy smoke, the couple wasn’t panicked because they had an early warning to leave their home near Echo Summit, about 10 miles (16 kilometers) south of the lake, and wanted to avoid last-minute pandemonium if the wildfire continued its march toward the tourist destination on the California and Nevada border. Firefighters were facing changing weather conditions that could push the fire closer to the Tahoe Basin, a home to thousands and recreational playground for millions of tourists who visit the alpine lake in summer, ski at the many resorts in winter and gamble at its casinos year-round. Winds and temperatures were expected to pick up in coming days while humidity drops, said Daniel Berlant, assistant deputy director of the state firefighting agency. “That’s what's closing the window of opportunity we’ve had to make progress and really get hold of the fire,” Berlant said. Echo Summit, a mountain pass where cliff-hanging U.S. Route 50 begins its descent toward Lake Tahoe, is where firefighters plan to make their stand if the Caldor Fire keeps burning through dense forest in the Sierra Nevada. “Everything’s holding real good along Highway 50," said Cal Fire Operations Section Chief Cody Bogan. "The fire has been backing down real slowly ... we’ve just been allowing it to do it on its own speed. It’s working in our favor.” The fire is one of nearly 90 large blazes in the U.S. There were more than a dozen big fires in California, including one that destroyed 18 homes in Southern California, which has so far escaped the scale of wildfires plaguing the north all summer. A new fire broke out Thursday in the Sierra foothills forcing evacuations near the historic Gold Rush town of Sonora, just dozens of miles from Yosemite National Park. Fires in California have destroyed around 2,000 structures and forced thousands to evacuate while also blanketing large swaths of the West in unhealthy smoke. “This is the week before Labor Day weekend — a busy weekend, normally,” South Lake Tahoe City Manager Joe Irvin said. “That is not going to be the case this year.” The Federal Emergency Management Agency noted in a report on the fire that “social, political, and economic concerns will increase as the fire progresses toward the Lake Tahoe Basin.” The agency did not immediately respond to a request to elaborate beyond that statement. Visitors are still crowding the highway that loops the massive lake and riding bikes and walking the beaches, but many are wearing masks. The lake, known for its water clarity and the granite peaks that surround it, has been shrouded in dense smoke that has reached hazardous levels. The Lake Tahoe Visitors Authority reversed its advice from earlier in the week and recommended tourists postpone their travel. Previously the group that promotes tourism on the south side of the lake advised letting visitors decide whether to cancel their trips amid smoke and approaching fire.

Can burying power lines prevent California’s next big wildfire? | Grist –On July 18, California’s Pacific Gas & Electric revealed that its electrical equipment might have sparked the Dixie Fire, a blaze that has since become the second-largest in the state’s history, torching 700,000 acres and destroying more than 1,200 structures. Three days later, PG&E, which emerged from bankruptcy last year after amassing some $30 billion worth of liabilities from wildfires, announced something more surprising: To prevent future blazes, the state’s largest utility plans to rip out 10,000 miles of overhead power lines in high fire risk areas and bury them underground. The plan caps a years-long push by utilities to bury more power lines in the face of worsening weather and rising risks from climate change. According to PG&E, it’s the largest such effort ever announced by a U.S. utility: Pattie Poppe, the company’s CEO, described as a “moonshot” on a call with reporters, But whether PG&E can turn its announcement into action is a big “if,” as the utility has not estimated a timeline for the project, and it’s not clear that the benefits will outweigh the multi-billion dollar cost. PG&E’s announcement, nearly two years after its equipment sparked the deadly Camp Fire, was “a clear recognition that something has to change,” said Julie McNamara, a senior energy analyst at the Union of Concerned Scientists. “But if this is not part of a holistic plan that is clearly reckoning with all of the challenges afoot, then this is a distraction.” Burying power lines isn’t a new idea. The majority of electrical distribution lines, as well as the larger, higher voltage transmission lines that carry electrons over longer distances, remain overhead, said Sadrul Ula, an energy infrastructure researcher at the University of California, Riverside. But utilities have long buried lines in city centers, as well as parks and recreation areas like golf courses, largely for aesthetic reasons. Even though it can cost as much as ten times more than installing power lines overhead, utilities are now burying an increasing number of new lines. That includes power lines serving nearly all new residential and commercial developments in the U.S. They do it to meet customer preferences, help keep the lights on, reduce maintenance needs, and to protect against the growing threat of extreme weather.

Catastrophic Flooding Turns Deadly in Middle Tennessee The death toll continued to rise in Middle Tennessee on Sunday as rescue efforts and cleanup operations continued after a historic rainfall event caused devastating flooding on Saturday.The flooding is being blamed for the deaths of at least 21 people while dozens remain missing, The Tennesseean reported. Hundreds of homes are said to be uninhabitable.As intense and relentless downpours persisted throughout much of the day on Saturday, homes were destroyed and roads were washed out, according to The Associated Press (AP).Heavy rain started falling early Saturday in Humphreys County, which includes cities such as McEwen and Waverly. It was in this part of the county where the National Weather Service office issued a rare flash flood emergency.One of the worst-hit areas was Waverly, home to about 4,500 and about 75 miles west of Nashville. There, business owner Kansas Klein told the AP that it was "amazing" how quick the devastating flooding came and went. Klein noted that his business, a pizzeria, was still standing but had been rendered a total loss by the floodwaters that reached 7 feet inside the building.“It was devastating: buildings were knocked down, half of them were destroyed,” Klein told the AP. “People were pulling out bodies of people who had drowned and didn’t make it out.”Downpours persisted throughout the day and into Saturday night with rain finally subsiding in Middle Tennessee by midnight local time.A staggering 17.02 inches of rain fell in McEwen, Tennessee, likely breaking the all-time 24-hour rainfall record for the state of Tennessee, according to the National Weather Service office in Nashville. Elsewhere, the city of Dickson, Tennessee, and a location just north of Centerville, Tennessee, picked up almost 10 inches."The slow-moving downpours over Middle Tennessee were due to a blocking pattern in the atmosphere with high pressure centered over Texas and low pressureover the mid-Atlantic," AccuWeather Senior Meterologist Tom Kines said. "These two features allowed storms to become stagnant over Tennessee on Saturday. There was also ample moisture due to humid air being ushered northward from the Gulf of Mexico into the Tennessee River Valley."As torrential rainfall continued throughout the day on Saturday, the Piney River at Vernon, Tennessee, crested at 31.8 feet, shattering the river's previous record from 2019 by nearly 12 feet and towering 7 feet above major flood stage.Roads and highways throughout Humphreys County were turned into rubble as large portions of asphalt were washed away, making rescue efforts more difficult for crews searching for any missing persons.The

Catastrophic flooding hits Tennessee after record rainfall, leaving at least 22 people dead and dozens missing - (several videos) Several waves of slow-moving storms dumped record-breaking rains over parts of Middle Tennessee on Saturday, August 21, 2021, resulting in catastrophic flooding in which at least 22 people lost their lives and dozens remain missing. The worst impacted counties include Dickson, Hickman, Houston, and Humphreys.From 00:00 to 20:30 CDT on August 21, the town of McEwen in Humphreys County received 432.3 mm (17.02 inches) of rain¹, breaking the state's all-time 24-hour rainfall of 345.44 mm (13.60 inches) set in Milan on September 13, 1982. The value is still preliminary.One of the worst-hit areas was Waverly (population 4 500), located just west of McEwen and about 120 km (75 miles) W of Nashville, where floodwaters gushed in at very high speed, leaving homes and buildings under 2 m (7 feet) of water."Dozens of buildings in a low-income housing area known as Brookside appeared to have borne the brunt of the flash flood from Trace Creek," one of the residents told AP.²"It was devastating: buildings were knocked down, half of them were destroyed. People were pulling out bodies of people who had drowned and didn’t make it out."The floods destroyed homes, roads, power poles, cellphone towers, and telephone lines, leaving the area difficult to reach and without communications. On Saturday morning, Houston, Humphreys, Dickson, and Hickman counties received about 20 to 25% of their yearly rainfall total, the National Weather Service (NWS) said."Severe weather continued in Middle Tennessee this evening with another round of damaging winds and heavy rainfall impacting many of the same counties hit with record flash flooding early in the day Saturday," the Tennessee Emergency Management Agency (TEMA) said in a report issued at 22:06 CDT.³"As of this evening, an estimated 10 000 are without power in the counties of Hickman, Houston, Humphreys, and part of Dickson. Humphreys County is reporting disruptions to telecommunication systems.""From 230 to 430 mm (9 inches to 17 inches) of rain fell across this area of middle Tennessee within a 6-hour period Saturday morning and another round of severe weather impacted the same area Saturday night," TEMA said at 10:00 CDT on Sunday, August 22.⁴"Multiple bridges and roadways – SR1/US70, SR230, SR48N – remain closed today from flooding and debris impacts," it added. "Telecommunication services in the area, particularly in Humphreys County, are limited as AT&T and Verizon move resources to the area to improve voice, data, and internet access for the public and responders.""Search and rescue teams performed more than 20 rescues and evacuations yesterday, with searches conducted in approximately 100 homes and 25 businesses.""The State Emergency Operations Center (SEOC) is not reporting confirmed totals of weather-related fatalities, injuries, or missing persons considering emergency response operations are still underway in the flood-impacted counties, and the situation continues to evolve," TEMA said.

Tennessee floods rival wildfires for raw tragedy -Brittney LeAnn McCord “held on as long as she could” as furious stormwaters pulled at her and her five children outside their apartment in Waverly, Tenn., according to Tennessean. The waters had risen so quickly that they had trapped her husband out on the road, leaving her alone to face the flood. She clung to her children, hanging on to a clothesline — before the water pulled her 2-year old son, Kellon Cole Burrow, from her hands and carried him away. The incident — like that of two infant twins swept from their father’s arms — marked the caprice and tragedy of Sunday’s floods, which were caused as a slow-moving, enormous thunderstorm funneled huge amounts of rain through a bottleneck of small drainages. That led to the sort of sudden, rapid rise that makes flash floods the most lethal form of flooding, according to the National Weather Service (NWS) — producing flood behavior that echoed the ferocity and horror of the destructive fires seen out West. Today we’ll look at both the acute effects of flood and the chronic implications of wildfire. First, the savagery of the Waverly floods sound a warning for towns that might not think of themselves as flood-prone. And then we’ll explore how wildfire smoke exposure is increasing the risk of preterm births among pregnant Californian mothers — and what can be done to reduce the risk.

Grace rapidly intensified into a major hurricane before making landfall in Mexico - Hurricane "Grace" rapidly intensified before making landfall south of Tuxpan, Mexico at 06:00 UTC on August 21, 2021, with maximum sustained winds of 205 km/h (125 mph), just below Category 4 on the Saffir Simpson hurricane wind scale. At the time, Grace's center was located about 50 km (30 miles) SSE of Tuxpan and about 185 km (115 miles) NNW of Veracruz, Mexico. The storm was moving W at 17 km/h (10 mph) with a minimum central pressure of 962 hPa.¹ Severe flooding and mudslides caused by the storm left at least 8 people dead, including 6 from the same family, authorities reported.Seven fatalities were confirmed in Xalapa, Veracruz state capital, and one in Poza Rica.Local television showed severe flooding in the capital after the nearby Actopan River burst its banks.Grace smashed windows, downed trees, power cables and telegraph poles, leaving debris strewn around Tecolutla, though there were no human casualties, local authorities said.²Mexico's national power utility reported 565 000 customers were left without power. Grace weakened into a disturbance by 21:00 UTC on August 22.

Tropical Storm Henri making rare New England landfall - Tropical Storm Henri made landfall along the Rhode Island coast packing tropical storm force wind gusts and heavy rain as midday Sunday. AccuWeather meteorologists say that dangerous impacts are already underway for parts of the Northeast.It's been just over 30 years since a hurricane delivered a direct hit to New England. The last hurricane to make landfall in New England was Hurricane Bob in 1991. Bob came ashore in Rhode Island as a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale on August 19, 1991.AccuWeather meteorologists are urging those in the path of Henri to hunker down for the storm as the time to complete preparations has passed. Rain spread over southern New England by Sunday morning with winds continuing to batter the region as Henri made landfall early Sunday afternoon. As of Sunday morning, Connecticut Governor, Ned Lamont, has implemented a travel ban on I-95 for all empty tractor trailers, tandem tractor trailers and motorcycles beginning at 11 a.m. EDT Sunday. Henri is rated a 2 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in the United States due to the anticipated rainfall, damaging winds and storm surge set to impact Long Island and New England. As of early Sunday afternoon, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Tropical Storm Henri has made landfall along the coast of Rhode Island neat Westerly at approximately 12:15 P.M. EDT with estimated sustained winds at 60 mph. The storm had picked up considerable forward speed on Saturday after chugging along at just 7 mph on Friday. Sunday afternoon Henri began to slow down after landfall, tracking to the north at 12 mph. The storm had grown somewhat as well since last week, with tropical-storm-force winds extending up to 125 miles out from the center as of Sunday morning. Hurricane-force winds once extended as far out as 60 miles from the center of the storm on Saturday, but this gradually disappeared when Henri was downgraded to a tropical storm on Sunday morning. Around midweek last week, the storm was much more compact, with tropical-storm-force winds extending only about 80 miles out from the center.Hurricane warnings were issued by the NHC on Friday afternoon for many areas, including portions of Long Island, Connecticut and Rhode Island. Hurricane watches were in effect elsewhere, including southeastern Massachusetts. By Friday evening, tropical storm warnings were issued for much of southern New England, Long Island and southern New York, including New York City.But, as of early Sunday morning, all hurricane watches and warnings were downgraded to tropical storm watches and warnings after Henri weakened to a tropical storm. Storm surge warnings have been discontinued as of Sunday afternoon while tropical storm warnings remained in effect for coastal areas excluding New York and along the Jersey Shore.AccuWeather forecasters caution that impacts from Henri will be significant and calls for preparations ahead of the storm to be taken incredibly seriously. Henri is forecast to bring torrential downpours, strong wind gusts and coastal flooding to coastal areas of the Northeast.The total damage and economic loss from Henri is estimated to be between $8 billion and $12 billion, according to AccuWeather Founder and CEO Dr. Joel N. Myers, who pointed to storm surge as the most threatening hazard Henri poses to the Northeast. Myers added that wind damage will also be significant.“The damage will mainly result from flooding in Connecticut, Rhode Island, parts of New York, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Vermont and Maine," Myers said.

Tropical Storm Henri: More than 100,000 without power across New England as Henri makes landfall in Rhode Island - More than 100,000 New England residents were without power just as Tropical Storm Henri made landfall shortly after noon on Sunday in Rhode Island. The National Hurricane Center reported that the storm hit Westerly, Rhode Island, at about 12:15 p.m. with sustained winds of at least 60 miles per hour, citing data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration weather radars and surface observations. Earlier Sunday, a Weatherflow station at Point Judith reported gusts of 70 mph and the National Hurricane Center reported gusts exceeding 60 mph on Block Island, where the eye of the storm passed at about 11 a.m. Thousands of Eversource and National Grid customers across Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts have reported outages, with the utilities noting strong winds had downed several tree limbs. The utilities hoped to bring back power within hours. Nearly 75,000 Rhode Islanders lost power as Henri approached, including nearly 20,000 around Narragansett, according to National Grid and the National Weather Service. Rhode Island State Police said they shut down Newport, Jamestown and Mount Hope bridges just before 11:30 a.m. just as the National Weather Service warned of substantial risk of flash flooding, high surf and downed trees in portions of several Northeastern states. The hurricane center reported that the storm continues to press inland, north by northwest, at about 12 mph. Almost 20,000 were without power in Connecticut as of noon. More than 4,000 have been without power in Massachusetts since about 11 a.m., including more than 2,000 combined near Southbridge, Sturbridge and Brookfield, and several hundred in communities near Buzzards Bay. More than 245 are without power in Worcester, while dozens have lost electricity on Cape Cod and around Rockport.

Henri to Meander Inland Over New England With Flooding Rain - Henri is slowing down inland over southern New England with plenty of flooding rain left for the Northeast into Monday.The center of Henri moved ashore around 12:15 p.m. Sunday in southwest Rhode Island near the town of Westerly, about 40 miles southwest of the state's capital city, Providence. Maximum sustained winds at landfall were 60 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. Despite weakening, and the cancellation of tropical storm and storm surge warnings, its inland impacts including flooding rain and gusty winds will last into Monday, regardless of its designation.Henri turned toward the west and northwest and its forward motion is slowing down, now under 10 mph. Rainbands continue to wrap into the inland Northeast.Wind gusts from 60 to 70 mph were clocked along the coast of Rhode Island around landfall Sunday. Great Gull Island off the eastern end of Long Island clocked a 72 mph gust.Trees and wires have been reported downed in parts of Rhode Island, Connecticut and Massachusetts. Over 100,000 customers lost power Sunday in New England, New York and New Jersey, according to poweroutage.us. The most destructive impacts, so far, have been from rainfall flooding over 100 miles from the center of Henri.Up to 9 inches of rain drenched parts of New Jersey Saturday night into Sunday morning, triggering major flooding in several areas.In Middlesex County, numerous roads were closed and vehicles submerged. Homes were flooded with 3 feet of water in Cranbury, some residences and businesses were flooded in Milltown, and evacuations were needed in Helmetta.Heavy rain also triggered flooding in the New York City metro Saturday night, including in Brooklyn, Hoboken and Newark. Saturday night's deluge was the heaviest one-hour rainfall on record at New York's Central Park, where almost 2 inches of rain fell in one hour.Another band of soaking rain set up over the New York City Tri-State area Sunday afternoon into the evening, flooding stretches of the Bronx River, Sprain Brook and Taconic State Parkways. Parts of the NYC's five boroughs picked up 6 to 8 inches of rain through late Sunday afternoon. The band parked over portions of Pennsylvania and New Jersey by Sunday evening. Henri will now take a meandering, slow right turn through New England. Henri's forward progress is slowing down because of blocking high pressure to its north over Quebec.On Monday, however, Henri's remnant is expected to take a sharp eastward turn over northern New England, as it eventually gets caught up on the southern edge of the jet stream.

Henri drenches New England, leaves trail of floods -After drenching the New England shores and states during its stint as a hurricane and later tropical storm, Tropical Depression Henri now lingers over Massachusetts, Connecticut, and northeastern parts of Maine as scattered rainfall.Over the weekend, however, Tropical Storm Henri made landfall along the Northeast, bringing torrential downpours and mass flooding to New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts. Over seven inches of rainfall hit parts of New York City including Brooklyn and Central Park. Powerful surf splashed beaches along the Long Island Sound, from Rockaway to Montauk. Henri prompted mass alerts from state leaders advising residents to take emergency precautions. Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) issued a state of emergency amid the oncoming storm. On Monday, he deployed emergency resources to respond to the damage left in Henri’s wake. America is changing faster than ever! Add Changing America to your Facebook or Twitter feed to stay on top of the news. "Although New York did not receive a direct hit from Henri, its lingering effects are still being felt from Long Island to Albany and we can expect more rain and flooding threats in communities hardest hit by the storm," Cuomo said. "I have directed State agencies to focus their efforts on assisting local governments severely impacted by Henri over the weekend.” Gov. Ned Lamont (D) also issued several emergency orders on Aug. 22 in the event of Henri, including imposing a travel ban on tractor trailers and motorcycles along Interstate 95, along with activating the state national guard to prepare to respond to the storm. Despite mass flooding along urban streets, no fatalities have yet been linked to Henri.

Tropical Storm "Nora" strengthening on its way toward Baja California, Mexico - Tropical Storm "Nora" formed south of Mexico at 15:00 UTC on August 26, 2021, as the 14th named storm of the 2021 Pacific hurricane season. The system is expected to strengthen to a hurricane on Saturday, August 27, and approach the southern portion of Baja California Sur on Sunday, August 29. Heavy rain associated with Tropical Storm "Nora" is expected across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) warns. Nora is forecast to be near or over the southern portion of Baja California Sur as a hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of wind and rain impacts to that area. Given the above-average uncertainty in the forecast, it is still too soon to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts.1 At 09:00 UTC on August 27, the center of Tropical Storm "Nora" was located 400 km (250 miles) SSW of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico and 495 km (310 miles) S of Manzanillo, Mexico.2 The storm had maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h (50 mph) and a minimum central pressure of 999 hPa. It was moving WNW at 19 km/h (12 mph). A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Tecpan de Galeana to Cabo Corrientes and a Tropical Storm Watch for areas north of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas, Mexico.

TS Ida: Life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides expected across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, western Cuba and Isle of Youth Tropical Storm "Ida" formed in the Caribbean Sea at 21:20 UTC on Thursday, August 26, 2021, as the 9^th named storm of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. At the time, its center was located 160 km (100 miles) WSW of Negril, Jamaica and 205 km (130 miles) SE of Grand Cayman. Ida's core is expected to move over western Cuba Friday afternoon or evening (LT), August 27, and then across the southern and central Gulf of Mexico this weekend until landfall in Louisiana late Sunday or early Monday, August 30.At 03:00 UTC, the center of Tropical Storm "Ida" was located about 105 km (65 miles) SE of Grand Cayman. The storm had maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h (40 mph) and a minimum central pressure of 1 006 hPa. It was moving NW at 19 km/h (12 mph).A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cayman Islands, Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth.A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Cameron, Louisiana eastward to the Mississippi/Alabama border, including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and metropolitan New Orleans. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border. In addition, a Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Sabine Pass to the Alabama/Florida border including Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay.¹Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Cayman Islands tonight and in portions of western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Friday, where a dangerous storm surge is expected to raise water levels by as much as 0.6 to 1.2 m (2 to 4 feet) above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides are expected across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) warns.²There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect.There is an increasing risk of dangerous hurricane-force winds beginning Sunday, August 29 along the portions of the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi, including metropolitan New Orleans, where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall Sunday into Monday, August 30 along the central Gulf coast resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding.

Hurricane "Ida" makes landfall over the Isle of Youth, causing island-wide power outages, Cuba - Tropical Storm "Ida" strengthened into a hurricane at 17:10 UTC on Friday, August 27, 2021, just 50 km (31 miles) ESE of the Isle of Youth. Landfall took place at 18:00 UTC with maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h (75 mph) and a minimum central pressure of 987 hPa. The storm then moved over western Cuba and exited into the Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions in the Gulf of Mexico support rapid intensification and the next landfall is expected in Louisiana, U.S. possibly as a Category 4 hurricane late Sunday or early Monday.Ida's second landfall took place over the Cuban Province of Pinar del Rio, about 30 km (20 miles) E of La Coloma just before midnight. At 00:00 UTC on August 28, its center was located 145 km (90 miles) SW of Havana.The storm had maximum sustained winds of 130 km/h (80 mph) and was moving NW at 24 km/h (15 mph). Its minimum central pressure was 985 hPa.¹Ida downed trees, damaged homes, and left 98.7% of customers without electricity as it moved over the Isle of Youth. The power was available in one hospital and some 400 homes and buildings with power generators.²

43 fatalities, at least 3 800 homes destroyed as heavy rains and floods hit Sudan -- Sudan’s National Council for Civil Defense is reporting at least 43 people lost their lives while 3 838 homes were destroyed and another 8 514 damaged as a result of heavy rains and flooding affecting the country since the end of July 2021 when the rainy season started. Floods affected more than 60 000 people across the states of Northern, River Nile, Khartoum, Al Jazirah, Gedaref, Sennar, Blue Nile, White Nile, South Kordofan, South Darfur, West Darfur and North Kordofan.¹The worst affected was River Nile State, with over 27 000 affected, including 20 000 in Barbar where floods destroyed 1 738 homes.As many as 7 710 people have been affected in Al Fao where 528 homes were destroyed.The Nile river is above the danger mark in several locations in the country, FoodList reports. As of August 22, the river stood above the danger mark at 16.12 m (52.8 feet) at Atbara, at 17.86 m (58.5 feet) in Shandi, and at 17.06 m (55.9 feet) in the capital Khartoum.More heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected over parts of northern Ethiopia, western Eritrea, and southern Sudan through the end of the month, ICPAC said.² Authorities and the public are advised to take appropriate measures to protect lives and livelihoods.

• Heavy to very heavy rainfall (top 10 - 5% on record) is expected in regions of southern Sudan (parts of white Nile, Sennar, Gedaref, Kordofan, and Darfur states), western and northern Ethiopia (parts of Tigray, Amhara, Oromia, and Benishangul Gumuz), and western Eritrea. Total rainfall above 100 mm (4 inches) is forecast in these regions.
• Moderate rainfall between 50 - 100 mm (2 - 4 inches) is expected over southern Sudan, northern South Sudan, central and western Ethiopia, and limited regions of Gash-Barka and Debub in Eritrea.
• Light rainfall less than 30 mm (1.2 inches) is expected over parts of central Sudan, western South Sudan, northern Uganda, parts of western and coastal Kenya, northern and southern Somalia, and coastal Tanzania.
• Dry conditions are expected in Rwanda, Burundi, much of Tanzania, much of Kenya, central Somalia, southern Ethiopia, southern Uganda, south-eastern South Sudan, and northern Sudan.

 More than 8 000 homes destroyed as severe floods and landslides hit Venezuela --Heavy rain has been affecting Venezuela over the past few days, causing severe floods and landslides and resulting in casualties and damage. Government officials confirmed 15 fatalities and 6 people missing on August 25.The worst affected states are Amazonas, Apure, Aragua, Barinas, Bolívar, Delta Amacuro, Mérida, Monagas, Táchira and Zulia, as well as some parts of the area of Caracas.¹More than 35 500 people have been affected and at least 8 100 homes were destroyed. Mudslides and overflowing rivers inundated communities in Mocotíes Valley Area, state of Merida, triggering powerful floods that dragged cars through streets, buried roads with mud, rocks and debris, and damaged or destroyed homes. Power supply has been cut in affected areas.²Merida governor, Ramon Guevara, reported 11 fatalities in the municipality of Tovar and two in the municipality of Antonio Pinto Salinas. Officials later reported 2 fatalities in Sucre municipality. Six people are still missing. Moderate to heavy rain is forecast over most parts of the country on August 25 and 26, particularly across western Venezuela.

 Thousands of homes destroyed by floods, more than 60 fatalities, Niger - Heavy rains and floods affecting Niger since the start of the rainy season in June have affected more than 100 000 people, left thousands of homes destroyed and more than 60 people dead. In addition, the country was hit by an outbreak of cholera following the floods, with additional 68 fatalities.According to the country's civil protection agency, floods affected 413 villages across 77 communes in all 8 regions -- Agadez, Diffa, Dosso, Maradi, Niamey, Tahoua, Tillabéri, and Zinder.¹The worst affected were the regions of Maradi with 3 243 homes destroyed, Zinder with 2 354, Tahoua with 1 040, and the capital region of Niamey with 714 destroyed homes.According to the UN, cholera outbreak is affecting several regions of the country following the floods.There were 1 770 cases and 68 additional fatalities due to the disease in the regions of Agadez and Diffa as of August 23. Case fatality is estimated at 4%.²

Large amount of Saharan dust moving over the Atlantic Ocean (satellite views, graphics) Another large Saharan dust cloud has lifted off western Africa late Sunday, August 22, 2021, and is now moving over the Atlantic Ocean toward the Caribbean and the United States. The cloud seems of similar strength to the one produced last week. Saharan Air Layer (SAL) activity typically ramps up in mid-June and peaks from late June to mid-August, with new outbreaks occurring every three to five days. "During this peak period, it is common for individual SAL outbreaks to reach farther to the west—as far west as Florida, Central America and even Texas—and cover extensive areas of the Atlantic (sometimes as large as the lower 48 United States)," said Dr. Jason Dunion, a University of Miami hurricane researcher working with NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory.1 The layer has unique properties of warmth, dry air and strong winds that can act to suppress hurricane formation and intensification.

Glacier melt is causing Earth’s crust to warp slightly, say scientists -The melting of ice from glaciers and landmasses such as Greenland and Antarctica is causing the Earth’s crust to warp slightly, a new study suggests.As ice sheets and glaciers melt across the globe and water is redistributed to global oceans, the Earth’s crust is liberated from the overlying weight and lifts up, said the research published in the journalGeophysical Research Letters last week.This melting could generate a complex pattern of three-dimensional (3D) motions at the Earth’s surface, even in places over 1,000 kilometres away from the ice loss, according to the scientists behind the study, including Sophie Coulson from Harvard University in the US.“This 3D surface motion is on average several tenths of a millimetRE per year, and it varies significantly year to year,” the study noted.In the research, scientists used satellite-derived data on early 21st century ice loss from Greenland, Antarctica, mountain glaciers and ice caps, to predict how the Earth’s crust deforms with changes in its mass.Between 2003 and 2018, ice melting from Greenland and the Arctic glaciers have “caused the ground to shift horizontally” across much of the Northern Hemisphere, changing by as much as 0.3 millimetres (mm) a year in large parts of Canada and the US, said researchers.“We show that, rather than only being localised to regions of ice loss, melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet and Arctic glaciers has caused significant horizontal and vertical deformation of the crust that extends over much of the Northern Hemisphere,” the scientists wrote in the study.The study predicted a crust deformation of 0.05–0.3 mm per year in most parts of Canada and the US, with a deformation of 0.05–0.2 mm per year in Europe, including parts of Fennoscandia, which constitutes Finland, Norway and Sweden.Climate researchers call for future work to further assess crustal warping due to ice melting to improve both horizontal and vertical measurements made by navigational satellite systems.

Atmospheric CO2 Levels Haven't Been This High in 800,000 Years: NOAA - Bolstering the case for meaningful climate action, a major report released Wednesday found that Earth's atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and sea levels both hit record highs in 2020.Based on the contributions of more than 530 scientists from over 60 countries and compiled by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), State of the Climate in 2020 is the 31st installment of the leading annual evaluation of the global climate system."The major indicators of climate change," officials from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Informationpointed out in a statement, "continued to reflect trends consistent with a warming planet. Several markers such as sea level, ocean heat content, and permafrost once again broke records set just one year prior.""Annual global surface temperatures were 0.97°–1.12°F (0.54°–0.62°C) above the 1981–2010 average" in 2020, said NOAA, making last year one of the three warmest on record "even with a cooling La Niña influence in the second half of the year."Last year was the warmest on record without an El Niño effect, and "new high-temperature records were set across the globe," NOAA said. The agency added that the past seven years (2014-2020) had been the seven warmest on record.Although the coronavirus-driven economic slowdown resulted in an estimated 6% to 7% reduction of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in 2020, the global average atmospheric concentration of CO₂ increased to a record high of 412.5 parts per million. The atmospheric concentrations of other major greenhouse gases (GHG), including methane and nitrous oxide, also continued to climb to record highs last year despite the pandemic.According to NOAA, last year's CO₂ concentration "was 2.5 parts per million greater than 2019 amounts and was the highest in the modern 62-year measurement record and in ice core records dating back as far as 800,000 years." Moreover, "the year-over-year increase of methane (14.8 parts per billion) was the highest such increase since systematic measurements began."In addition, global sea levels continued to rise, surpassing previous records. "For the ninth consecutive year," said NOAA, "global average sea level rose to a new record high and was about 3.6 inches (91.3 millimeters) higher than the 1993 average," which is when satellite measurements began. As a result of melting glaciers and ice sheets, warming oceans, and other expressions of the climate crisis, the "global sea level is rising at an average rate of 1.2 inches (3.0 centimeter) per decade." Other notable findings of the new report include:

• Upper atmospheric temperatures were record or near-record setting;
• Oceans absorbed a record amount of CO₂, global upper ocean heat content reached a record high, and the global average sea surface temperature was the third highest on record;
• The Arctic continued to warm at a faster pace than lower latitudes—resulting in a spike in carbon-releasing fires—and minimum sea ice extent was the second smallest in the 42-year satellite record;
• Antarctica witnessed extreme heat and a record-long ozone hole; and
• There were 102 named tropical storms during the Northern and Southern Hemisphere storm seasons, well above the 1981–2010 average of 85.

Current Climate Extremes Double at 2 Degrees Warming and Quadruple at 3 – Lead IPCC Author - (podcast interview, video & transcript) Today, we’re going to focus on Chapter 11 in that report. According to Chapter 11, “Climate change has already increased the magnitude and frequency−”, I’m quoting here from the executive summary, “−of extreme hot events and decrease the magnitude and frequency of extreme cold events and in some regions intensified extreme precipitation events.” So, we’re saying it’s already happened.“As the climate moves away from its past and current States, we will experience extreme events that are unprecedented, either in magnitude, frequency, timing, or location. The frequency of these unprecedented extreme events will increase with increasing global warming. Additionally, the combined occurrence of multiple unprecedented extremes may result in large and unprecedented impacts. This will be the case even if global warming is stabilized at 1.5°.” Let’s repeat, these extremes that we’re already experiencing are going to get worse as they get closer to 1.5°. Even if we are successful at stabilizing 1.5°, these extremes are still going to exist. As we’ll discuss later and we’ve discussed in other interviews, the odds of stabilizing at 1.5° are looking slimmer and slimmer. “Relative to present-day conditions, changes in the intensity of extremes would be at least double at 2.0° centigrade−” Now get this, “The extremes will double at 2.0° centigrade.” A lot of scientists think we’re already on the way to 2.0°, even though people are calling for measures to stop that. Certainly, if the status quo of climate policy doesn’t change drastically, we’re more than likely to see 2.0°. These extremes will double, but they will quadruple at 3.0° of global warming., “−compared to changes at 1.5° of global warming. The number of hot days and hot nights and the length, frequency, and or intensity of warm spells or heat waves will increase over most land areas.” The report has in brackets, “virtually certain” which it does throughout the report, depending on whether they’re virtually certain or medium certain. I think at one point, in the report when they’re not virtually certain, it’s usually just because they don’t think they have enough data yet.A report in another place says, “New evidence strengthens the conclusion−” from SR 1.5, I guess that’s the last report “−that even relatively small incremental increases in global warming−” that means 0.5° centigrade “−causes statistically significant changes in extremes on the global scale and for large regions, they’re high confidence. In particular, this is the case for temperature extremes. The intensification of heavy precipitation, including that associated with tropical cyclones and the worsening of droughts in some regions.” They have high confidence in all of these predictions. So, even 0.5° can have significant increases in these areas according to the report.Now, joining us to discuss Chapter 11 of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report is Xuebin Zhang, from Canada. He’s also the coordinating lead author of that chapter and the chapter titled Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate. Xuebin is a senior research scientist with the Climate Research Division of Environment and Climate Change Canada. He served as a lead author for previous IPCC Reports. He uses observations and climate model simulations to unravel climate responses to human activities, in particular, linking human-induced greenhouse gas changes, in mean and extreme temperature and precipitation. He’s been studying climate for more than 20 years. Thanks very much for joining us.

Nearly Half the World's Children at 'Extremely High Risk' of Climate Shocks, Report Finds - On Friday, the third anniversary of climate campaigner Greta Thunberg's lone protest outside the Swedish Parliament, a global report revealed the scale of risks posed by the climate emergency for the world's children.The United Nations' agency for children's rights, UNICEF, introduced the first-ever Children's Climate Risk Index, which shows that nearly half of the world's children are at "extremely high risk" for being faced with dangerous effects of the planetary crisis. "The climate crisis is a child rights crisis," said UNICEF.About one billion children live in dozens of developing countries that are facing at least three to four climate impacts, including drought, food shortages, extreme heat, and disease, the report, launched in collaboration with Fridays for Future, found. "For the first time, we have a complete picture of where and how children are vulnerable to climate change, and that picture is almost unimaginably dire," said Henrietta Fore, executive director of UNICEF, in a statement.Some of the highest-risk countries include India, Nigeria, and the Central African Republic — countries which are among the least responsible for rampant fossil fuel extraction and greenhouse gas emissions contributing to the climate crisis."The top 10 countries that are at extremely high risk are only responsible for 0.5% of global emissions," Nick Rees, lead author of the report, told The Guardian.UNICEF used high-resolution maps of climate impacts as well as maps showing children's vulnerability to poverty, lack of access to clean water, and other factors that make young people less able to survive climate-related catastrophes like extreme weather events.While nearly half of the world's children are at extreme risk for experiencing multiple effects of the climate crisis firsthand, nearly every child on Earth was found to be at risk for at least one impact, including heat waves and air pollution."Virtually no child's life will be unaffected," Fore said.

Scientists say the world urgently needs to cut methane emissions. The politics aren't as simple. - The Biden administration’s emerging efforts to slash emissions of methane — a greenhouse gas triggering alarms across the globe — is setting the stage for a new clash among lawmakers, agricultural interests and the energy industry. Carbon dioxide commands most of the attention when it comes to plans to combat climate change, but the Biden administration and some Democrats are shifting focus to methane, the greenhouse gas second-most responsible for heating the planet. Methane emissions have boomed since 2007, largely from oil and gas production propelled by the fracking revolution, and atmospheric concentrations are at their highest level in 800,000 years, according to the latest United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. Scientists around the world increasingly say that curbing the gas — which traps heat 86 times more effectively over 20 years than carbon dioxide — is the clearest near-term way to put the planet on a more sustainable temperature trajectory. But wrestling methane is presenting a new round of political and practical complications for the Biden administration: Agriculture, including livestock and land-based systems, accounts for 40 percent of global methane emissions — spurring concern among Republicans and farm-state Democrats about regulatory efforts to tackle the problem. Senate Democrats plan to include a so-called “methane polluter fee” in their $3.5 trillion budget resolution that would hit energy producers that vent or burn off excess methane and compressors used to pressurize and transport natural gas. Several also introduced legislation this month requiring refiners and oil and gas producers operating in the United States to pay into a fund based on a share of their global carbon and methane emissions. "The methane polluter fee targets industry leakage, which even the fossil fuel industry has a hard time defending," Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) told POLITICO. "I think that the public more and more cares about climate change and people understand that methane is a particularly powerful greenhouse gas – indeed more powerful than carbon dioxide. So it seems like addressing it is a good thing."Whitehouse said the Senate Budget Committee informed him that his bill with Sens. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) and Cory Booker (D-N.J.) will form the basis of the polluter fee. That legislation calls for a $1,800 per ton fee on oil and gas producers whose emissions rate perform worse than regional averages.

Schumer BS: Infrastructure bills would curb emissions 45 percent – POLITICO -- Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer argued Wednesday the dual infrastructure bills envisioned by Democrats would cumulatively curb greenhouse gas emissions 45 percent by 2030, short of President Joe Biden's plan to slash them by 50 percent in that timeframe. However, the New York Democrat said the congressional action — taken in conjunction with administrative actions by the Biden administration and state efforts to combat climate change — would hit Biden's target. He cautioned the numbers would change and be updated as new policies are crafted and incorporated. "At the same moment that historic drought and wildfire threaten the West and powerful floods and hurricanes impact large swaths of our country, we are on the precipice of the most significant climate action in our country’s history," he wrote in a dear colleague letter. "I do not believe we have the luxury of failure if we are to provide a good future for ourselves and our children." Biden pledged in April to curb U.S. greenhouse gas emissions 50 percent by 2030 from 2005 levels. He has also vowed to reach 80 percent clean electricity from utilities in the same period. It's unclear how Schumer's analysis, which he said he developed through "the best available data from a wide range of organizations that specialize in policy analysis," will land with climate hawks. They have loudly vowed they would not bless an infrastructure deal without sufficient climate change provisions for months. Schumer argued two envisioned policies in particular would drive nearly two-thirds of emissions reductions. One is a clean electricity payment program, developed by Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.), that would pay utilities for hitting targets for boosting their share of clean energy, while penalizing those that fall short. The other is a series of clean energy and electric vehicle tax incentives pushed by the Senate Finance Committee. Schumer acknowledged the numbers would continue to change, noting members of his caucus are "developing additional ideas to reduce carbon emissions and I look forward to reviewing them."

Gassing Satartia: Carbon Dioxide Pipeline Linked To Mass Poisoning - It was just after 7 p.m. when residents of Satartia, Mississippi, started smelling rotten eggs. Then a greenish cloud rolled across Route 433 and settled into the valley surrounding the little town. Within minutes, people were inside the cloud, gasping for air, nauseated and dazed. Some two dozen individuals were overcome within a few minutes, collapsing in their homes; at a fishing camp on the nearby Yazoo River; in their vehicles. Cars just shut off, since they need oxygen to burn fuel. Drivers scrambled out of their paralyzed vehicles, but were so disoriented that they just wandered around in the dark. The first call to Yazoo County Emergency Management Agency came at 7:13 p.m. on February 22, 2020. “CALLER ADVISED A FOUL SMELL AND GREEN FOG ACROSS THE HIGHWAY,” read the message that dispatchers sent to cell phones and radios of all county emergency personnel two minutes later. First responders mobilized almost immediately, even though they still weren't sure exactly what the emergency was. Maybe it was a leak from one of several nearby natural gas pipelines, or chlorine from the water tank. The first thought, however, was not the carbon dioxide pipeline that runs through the hills above town, less than half a mile away. Denbury Inc, then known as Denbury Resources, operates a network of CO2 pipelines in the Gulf Coast area that inject the gas into oil fields to force out more petroleum. While ambient CO2 is odorless, colorless and heavier than air, the industrial CO2 in Denbury’s pipeline has been compressed into a liquid, which is pumped through pipelines under high pressure. A rupture in this kind of pipeline sends CO2 gushing out in a dense, powdery white cloud that sinks to the ground and is cold enough to make steel so brittle it can be smashed with a sledgehammer.But it wasn't until 7:30 p.m. that word went out that they'd need self-contained breathing apparatus, or SCBA, to enter Satartia and evacuate the town’s 42 residents, many of them elderly, and about 250 otherswho lived just outside town. By then, rescuers and residents were already in motion, fleeing the gas or evacuating others.

How the World's First CO2 Pipeline Explosion Turned a Mississippi Town Into 'a Zombie Movie' - In February of last year, a CO2 pipeline exploded, engulfing Satartia, Mississippi in a noxious green fog that left residents confused, convulsing, foaming at the mouth and even unconscious — an episode that augurs danger for what could be a coming wave of new CO2 pipelines across the country, a 19-month investigation by HuffPost and the Climate Investigations Center reveals.The reporting comes as the oil and gas industry is seeking to reinvent themselves, or at least their public image, through massive carbon capture and storage (CCS) investments that would include a whole new network of pipelines.If and when these pipes leak, they will send clouds of CO2 (and in this specific case, poisonous hydrogen sulfide, which gave the cloud its green hue, rotten egg smell and particularly noxious respiratory impacts) into the surrounding environment, where it will displace the lighter air at ground level and threaten to cause "air hunger" and asphyxiate every oxygen-breathing organism incapable of escaping the area — made harder by the fact that gas- and diesel-powered cars also need oxygen to work."It was almost like something you'd see in a zombie movie — they were just walking in circles," sheriff's officer Terry Gann told HuffPost, while survivor Hugh Martin said the "only thing I been through worse than this was the gas chamber when I was in the Army training for Desert Storm, and that was cyanide gas."Bad as that may sound, though, the situation could have been significantly worse, as they actually "got lucky," as Yazoo County Emergency Management Agency director Jack Willingham explained. "If the wind blew the other way, if it'd been later when people were sleeping, we would have had deaths." The Verge called its competitor's reporting a "scathing investigation of the company, Denbury, that operates the pipeline," and its headline exhorted readers to "Go read the harrowing story of the world's first CO2 pipeline explosion."

DOE announces $24 million to capture carbon emissions directly from air --The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) today announced $24 million in funding for nine research projects to explore and develop new methods of capturing and storing carbon from the air. Direct Air Capture (DAC) is an expanding field in decarbonization and a key facet of the plan to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. “Finding ways to remove and store carbon directly from the air is an absolute necessity in our fight against the climate crisis,” said Secretary of Energy Jennifer M. Granholm. “This investment in carbon capture technology research through universities and DOE laboratories will position America as a leader in this growing field, create good-paying jobs, and help make our carbon-free future a reality.” Studies indicate curbing carbon emissions alone will not be sufficient, and innovative approaches like direct air capture will be required to combat the climate crisis. Direct air capture technology is a growing field that still requires significant investments in research and development to create a cost-effective and economically viable technology that can be deployed at scale and in time to meet the urgent needs of the climate crisis. These new research projects will support breakthroughs in understanding how to overcome the limitations of currently available technologies, including inefficient energy usage, with the goal of building a research foundation of entirely new and more effective approaches for direct removal of carbon dioxide from the air. The nine awards are led by two national laboratories and seven universities, including North Carolina A&T State University, an Historically Black University. The awards tackle topics including discovery of novel materials, chemistries, and processes for extraction of carbon dioxide from air, and combined experimental and computational studies on carbon dioxide capture for sequestration or reuse.

Power industry pushes priorities as US Congress crafts budget package | S&P Global Market Intelligence -The $3.5 trillion budget resolution that the U.S. House of Representatives passed Aug. 24 will open the door for Democrats to pursue a nationwide clean electricity program that encourages utilities to expand the amount of generation provided by carbon-free sources. But with the text of the clean energy proposal still unreleased, power industry trade groups are making their priorities and concerns for the program known, particularly as President Joe Biden and Democrats maintain calls to decarbonize the U.S. power sector by 2035. Despite rapid growth in renewable capacity in recent years, the U.S. still generates about 60% of its electricity from fossil fuels. That share is larger for some states and utilities, making the shift to a lower-carbon grid potentially harder for those stakeholders. "There has to be a recognition that different utilities in different parts of the country are starting at different places," said Desmarie Waterhouse, vice president of government relations for the American Public Power Association. Democrats plan to use the budget reconciliation process to advance a massive social spending program that will include major climate and clean energy initiatives. Reconciliation bills are not subject to the U.S. Senate's 60-vote filibuster threshold, making it easier for the upper chamber's narrow Democratic majority to pass such legislation. Clean electricity payments But the reconciliation process is limited to bills that affect the federal budget and do not contain extraneous policy measures. As a result, Democratic lawmakers are proposing to include a "clean electricity payment program" in the reconciliation package rather than a traditional clean electricity standard. Key lawmakers behind the effort have said the payment program would provide incentives to utilities that add clean generation and penalize those that do not satisfy the program's interim goals. Ahead of the release of the reconciliation bills, which relevant committees were directed to submit by Sept. 15, trade groups are uncertain if the payment proposal will merely provide funding to expand clean energy generation or set binding targets. Democrats want the reconciliation package to put the U.S. on track to get 80% of its electricity from carbon-free sources by 2030. But whether the clean power payment program sets such a deadline or how individual utilities may be treated is unclear.M

 Amazon: Regrowing Forests Have Offset Less Than 10% of Carbon Emissions from Deforestation --Driven largely by the expansion of farm land to meet increasing global demand for products such as soya bean, over 810,000 km²of forest in the Amazon has been cleared – an area nearly as big as Norway and Sweden combined.Deforestation is not only a tragedy for biodiversity, it also releases huge quantities of carbon dioxide (CO₂) into the atmosphere. Despite a glimmer of hope in the early 2010s, when deforestation rates plummeted to an all-time low, forest loss is once again on the rise.The bulldozers aren’t always the end of the story. Nearly 30% of deforested land in the Amazon has been abandoned, giving the forest a chance to regrow – albeit with differing degrees of success, depending on how long and how intensely the land was used for agriculture. While these recovering habitats, known as secondary forests, are a poor substitute for the species-rich old-growth forests they replace, they can rapidly capture large quantities of CO₂ from the atmosphere. But in a new study, we discovered that secondary forests across the Amazon are absorbing just 9.7% of the emissions created by the destruction of old-growth forests in the region. That’s despite these regrowing habitats occupying 28.8% of all deforested land.

Broadview Heights establishes regulations for solar energy systems --City Council has approved regulations for solar energy systems on residential and commercial properties. Under the regulations, all solar energy systems will require a city permit. Ground-mounted systems can’t be visible from the street, extend beyond the width of the house or commercial building, or sit in front or side yards. Solar panels cannot exceed 6 feet in height from the ground. Roof-mounted solar energy systems can’t extend beyond the roofline in any direction, make the roof appear higher or be installed on the part of the roof that fronts the street. Solar panels on a flat roof cannot heighten the roof by more than 5 feet. The new regulations were five years in the making. A council committee and then-Chief Building Official Mike Skvasik started working on the rules in 2016. “The legislation was intended to establish standards and provide information, both pros and cons, regarding the benefits vs. the risks (of solar power systems),” Councilman Joe Price said. For example, Price said, rooftop solar panels might add home-maintenance costs. Also, older roofs might not hold up under solar panels. Sellers of solar panel systems might not share such information with potential customers. Councilman Glenn Goodwin added that the new regulations are meant to meet the city’s aesthetic standards and keep solar energy systems from cluttering the community.M

Despite Opponent Arguments, Wind Energy Fills Sails In Huron County - – So pervasive is the misinformation surrounding wind farms in rural Michigan that when Robert Krohn developed lung cancer, some of his neighbors who have known him for years said he probably got it from the 17 windmills Krohn has on his 1,400-acre farm. “It ain’t from the windmills,” the soft-spoken 77-year-old lifetime resident of Elkton, Mich., says. “Everybody says. ‘You got it from the windmills.’ It’s chemicals I used years back.”Multiple studies have concluded that wind turbines pose no significant health threats, and there are no signs the turbines cause cancer.Krohn was born in the house next door to his current home in Huron County, located at the tip of the “thumb” of Michigan’s lower peninsula.Now, 17 wind turbines sit on Krohn’s farm. He said they bring in about $40,000 in annual revenue. That money, Krohn says, can turn a terrible year on his 1,400-acre corn farm into a decent one, and a good year into a great year.Wind farm opponents routinely claim wind turbines are too noisy, disrupt sleep and heart health.Yet, while sitting in his home’s living room, a turbine rotated outside. Only the TV was audible to a reporter. Passing cars made far more noise than the turbines. Krohn said the turbines never affect his sleep. Wind opponents claim that windmills are too noisy, but this video shows a passing car makes far more noise.No other county has as many wind turbines as Huron, which is considered the wind capital of Michigan. The state is trying to produce 35% of its energy from renewable sources by 2025. Huron County’s 472 wind turbines are 32% of the state’s total of 1,481.

Chinese firm announces giant 264-meter tall offshore wind turbine - MingYang Smart Energy has released details of a huge new offshore wind turbine, with the Chinese company aiming to install a prototype in 2023 before starting commercial production the year after.With a height of 264 meters (866 feet), a rotor diameter of 242 meters and a blade length of 118 meters, the scale of the MySE 16.0-242, as it's known, will be considerable.In a statement at the end of last week, MingYang said the turbine would have a capacity of 16 megawatts and be able to produce 80,000 megawatt hours of electricity per year, which it claimed would be enough to power over 20,000 households.MingYang is one of several companies attempting to scale-up the size of offshore wind turbines. GE Renewable Energy's Haliade-X turbine, for example, will have a tip-height of 260 meters, 107-meter long blades and a 220-meter rotor.Its capacity will be able to be configured to 12, 13 or 14 MW. A prototype of the Haliade-X, in the Netherlands, has a tip-height of 248 meters.Elsewhere, Vestas has revealed plans for a 15 MW turbine, while Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy is working on a 14 MW model, the SG 14-222 DD, which can also be boosted to 15 MW if required.As technology develops, the size of turbines is increasing. In a report published earlier this year, industry body WindEurope said the average rated capacity of turbines installed in Europe last year was 8.2 MW, a 5% increase on 2019. Capacity refers to the maximum amount a turbine can produce, not necessarily what it's currently generating.China remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels but it is also becoming a powerhouse in offshore wind. According to data from GWEC Market Intelligence, China installed more than half the planet's offshore wind capacity last year.

Japan targets floating wind farms for its deep coastal waters - RWE Renewables and Kansai Electric Power have signed an agreement that will see the two businesses "jointly study the feasibility of a large-scale floating offshore wind project" in waters off Japan's coast. In a statement issued Monday, RWE Renewables' Sven Utermöhlen said his firm saw "great potential for floating wind farms worldwide — but especially in countries with deeper coastal waters, like Japan." Indeed, the project announced Monday is not the only one in Japan focused on floating offshore wind. In July, self-described "cleantech company" BW Ideol said it had signed a joint development agreement with energy firm ENEOS Corporation to develop a "commercial-scale floating offshore wind farm" in waters off Japan's coast. In June, authorities in Japan said a consortium made up of six companies — Toda Corporation, Osaka Gas, Kansai Electric Power, ENEOS Corporation, INPEX Corporation and Chubu Electric Power — had been selected to develop a 16.8 megawatt floating offshore wind farm in waters off the coast of Goto City, Nagasaki Prefecture. There were no other bidders for the project. Floating offshore wind turbines are different to bottom-fixed offshore wind turbines that are rooted to the seabed. By contrast, RWE describes floating turbines as being "deployed on top of floating structures that are secured to the seabed with mooring lines and anchors." One advantage of floating turbines is that they can be installed in deeper waters compared to bottom-fixed ones. As the Carbon Trust, an advisory firm, notes: "Sites further from shore … tend to benefit from more consistent wind resource, meaning floating wind can deliver higher yields." Floating offshore wind is still in its early stages of development and costs will need to be driven down going forward. It was only in 2017 that Norwegian energy major Equinor — a major player in oil and gas — opened Hywind Scotland, a 30 megawatt facility it calls "the first full-scale floating offshore wind farm."

World's largest shipping firm spends $1.4 billion on methanol-powered vessels - Danish firm Maersk said Tuesday it is ordering eight large, ocean-going vessels able to run on what it called "carbon neutral methanol." The world's largest container shipping firm said the vessels would be built by South Korea's Hyundai Heavy Industries and have the capacity to carry around 16,000 containers. According to a number of reports, each ship will cost $175 million, making the total cost $1.4 billion. In a video message, Morten Bo Christiansen, Maersk's head of decarbonization, said the vessels would "hit the waters from early 2024." He added: "Once they are all out there sailing on green methanol, they will save a million tons of CO2 every year." Maersk said the ships would have a dual fuel engine set up, a feature which increases costs. "Additional capital expenditure … for the dual fuel capability, which enables operation on methanol as well as conventional low Sulphur fuel, will be in the range of 10-15% of the total price," it said. Its agreement with Hyundai Heavy Industries has an option for four extra vessels in 2025. While the Danish shipping giant said it would run the vessels "on carbon neutral e-methanol or sustainable bio-methanol as soon as possible" it also acknowledged there were issues to overcome. "Sourcing an adequate amount of carbon neutral methanol from day one in service will be challenging, as it requires a significant production ramp up of proper carbon neutral methanol production," Maersk said.

Hopkins: North Dakota's blue hydrogen will be green - A recent study out from Stanford and Cornell universities claims that blue hydrogen production releases more greenhouse gases than simply burning natural gas. But the study looks at an out-dated process for producing blue hydrogen, the CEO of a company that plans to start a blue hydrogen hub in North Dakota says. “Not many companies that are actually intending to do clean hydrogen from natural gas want to use steam methods,” Bakken Energy CEO Mike Hopkins told the Williston Herald’s Energy Chaser. “It’s a very old process. It does have absolute limitations as to just how much carbon you can capture. And it’s quite energy inefficient. So it’s got the two burdens of being energy efficient and very limiting in the ability to capture carbon.” North Dakota’s hydrogen hub, on the other hand, will use an entirely different and newer process, auto thermal reforming. “It’s not commonly used for the production of clean hydrogen because of the capital costs,” Hopkins explained. “It’s not so much the capital cost of the authothermal reforming. It’s the fact that you’d need an air separation unit. In the case of the Dakota Gasification plant, because of how it has operated as a gasification plant, it already has a perfectly good air separation unit.” Once operational, the company estimates it will be capturing 95 percent of carbon emissions for its blue hydrogen — taking 6 million tons of carbon out of the annual emissions stream or the equivalent of removing a million cars from the road.

Global electric power demand surges above pre-pandemic levels - Carbon dioxide emissions from the global electric power sector surged past pre-pandemic levels to record highs in the first half of 2021, according to new research by London-based environmental think tank Ember.Electricity demand and emissions are now 5% higher than where they were before the Covid-19 outbreak, which prompted worldwide lockdowns that led to a temporary drop in global greenhouse gas emissions. Electricity demand also surpassed the growth of renewable energy, the analysis found.The findings signal a failure of countries to achieve a so-called "green recovery" that would entail shifting away from fossil fuels toward renewable energy to avoid the worst consequences of climate change.The report found that 61% of the world's electricity still came from fossil fuels in 2020. Five G-20 countries had more than 75% of their electricity supplied from fossil fuels last year, with Saudi Arabia at 100%, South Africa at 89%, Indonesia at 83%, Mexico at 75% and Australia at 75%.Coal generation did fall a record 4% in 2020, but overall coal supplied 43% of the additional energy demand between 2019 and 2020. Asia currently generates 77% of the world's coal electricity and China alone generates 53%, up from 44% in 2015. The world's transition out of coal power, which contributes to roughly 30% of the world's greenhouse gas emissions, is happening far too slowly to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, the study warned. And the International Energy Agency forecasts coal generation will rebound in 2021 as electricity demand picks up again.

Wanted: 'Superhuman' AI to master a greener grid - As power grids fill up with renewable energy, electric vehicle charging stations and customer-owned generation, they will become too complex and fast-moving for their human operators to keep up with, a group of international researchers warns. The humans will need help from smart machines — high-performance computers running decisionmaking software systems built with artificial intelligence — according to researchers at France’s grid operator RTE, the U.S. Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and other partners. With the proliferation of low-carbon options, "the grid becomes exponentially more challenging to operate," said Jeremy Renshaw, EPRI’s AI director. "Grid operators are already stretched to the limit. Getting AI resources to help is going to be critical." That judgment has been reinforced, Renshaw says, by an ongoing international competition called L2RPN (for "Learning to Run a Power Network") challenging AI developers to invent software that keeps a simulated power grid from crashing in emergencies. The stakes are high: Maintaining grid stability is already a knife-edge task as operators juggle climate hazards, cyberthreats, and an avalanche of connected devices like rooftop solar panels and smart appliances. But in the conservative electric power industry, AI will have to prove itself, Renshaw said. “It’s going to be anywhere from five to 15 years before we see widespread adoption,” Renshaw said in an interview with E&E News. In the meantime, the race is on to create AI programs savvy enough to steer the future grid. The second round of the L2RPN competition last year attracted 300 contestants worldwide, including teams from the U.S., China, Russia, Colombia and Singapore.A new, expanded round is underway.

“All-Electric Future Comes At A Huge Cost” - Opponents of planned gas hookup bans in new homes cite higher energy bills and grid overload, as well as taking away consumers’ right to choose the energy supply in their homes. Many consumers, especially in colder climates, are wary that going all-electric would add a lot to their utility bills. Moreover, higher costs for homes not using any fossil fuels for heating or cooking could be a big hurdle for lower-income households, opponents of the all-electric buildings say.Total added construction costs for all-electric homes range from around $11,000 to $15,000 for cities in colder climates such as Denver and Minneapolis, a study prepared for the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) showed earlier this year. In warm climates such as in Houston, the total added construction costs range from $3,988 to $11,196.Overall, the study found that all-electric homes cost more upfront in comparison to gas homes. Electric homes in cold climates were also found to have higher ongoing utility costs, NAHB said.“With the higher electric demand, an upgrade in the electric service on the utility side may be needed. Depending on the local utility tariffs, these costs may be significant and need further evaluation,” the study noted.“It’s easy to write a paper and say switch A for B, but once you dig in you realize it’s not so simple,” Vladimir Kochkin, director of codes and standards at the NAHB told Houston Chronicle’s James Osborne.Electrification could also pose a challenge for grid operators and the federal government as higher power demand could strain the transmission systems, many of which need upgrades anyway, analysts say.For example, a rising share of heat pumps and EVs in New England will raise demand for power this decade, says the New England Independent System Operator (ISO-NE), which manages planning, the power market, and transmission grid for Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont. But the higher demand will not put the regional grid at risk of shortages, ISO-NE says, Kevin Adler, Editor, Climate & Sustainability Group, at IHS Markit wrote earlier this year.However, ISO-NE notes that the combination of heat pumps and EVs will result in peak winter demand for electricity increasing by nearly 2,500 MW, or more than 12 percent higher than current peak demand.“The challenge will be keeping the regional power system balanced without additional natural gas pipeline capacity, as adding new pipelines in the region has been held up by permitting issues and lawsuits,” IHS Markit’s Adler says. If the systems are not ready to handle more solar and wind power and if they are not upgraded, some areas in the U.S. could see the ultimate irony of all-electric homes being powered by electricity generated from more fossil fuels such as natural gas.

Fight over 'peaker' plants poses grid climate test - A proposed natural gas power plant and pipeline project in southwestern Indiana are drawing fire out of concerns that they will add more pollution to a region saddled with fossil fuel infrastructure. The controversy surrounding CenterPoint Energy Inc.’s plans for the site of an aging coal plant near Evansville, Ind., highlights a broader debate over natural gas “peaker” plants — backup power producers that rarely run but can be ramped up quickly when electricity demand is high. Some electric utilities are proposing new peaker units as coal plants retire and the power grid becomes more dependent on intermittent solar and wind farms, but the gas projects face opposition from local environmental groups who say their communities are already overburdened by emissions-spewing facilities. In addition to the fight brewing near Evansville, utilities in Peabody, Mass., and Queens, N.Y., have similarly proposed new “peaking” gas units at the sites of existing or retiring fossil fuel generators. In all three cases, activists contend that the closure of fossil fuel plants should be used as opportunities to remedy historic environmental injustices. “The majority of peaker plants across the country are sited in low-income areas and communities of color, many of which are already overburdened by decades of pollution from fossil-fuel infrastructure, industrial processes, and heavy transportation,” Seth Mullendore, vice president of the nonprofit advocacy organization Clean Energy Group, said in an email. Because new peaker plants are often used less than 10% of the time and release less carbon dioxide than coal plants, environmentalists don’t always challenge them. In Minnesota, for example, several clean energy groups were “encouraged” by Xcel Energy Inc.’s plan to build new solar and wind projects as well as a transmission line, even though it also included two small gas units (Energywire, June 28). The groups added that they are still reviewing the plan and the need for the gas units. Peaker plants built today are also much more energy efficient and lower-cost than older versions, said Alex Bond, deputy general counsel for climate and clean energy at the Edison Electric Institute, which represents investor-owned utilities. Nonetheless, clean energy groups are calling on utilities to pursue more advanced solutions to the grid reliability issues posed by renewables, such as battery storage, demand-response programs and power lines to connect to far-flung solar or wind farms. And some environmentalists in communities with a legacy of fossil fuels perceive new gas plants as half measures toward clean air.

Northeast power prices climb as storm-related restoration efforts advance - Wholesale power prices surged Aug. 23 in New York and New England as power demand is expected to bounce back from the demand-destruction effects of Tropical Storm Henri and climb sharply in response to high temperatures midweek. Traders on Aug. 20 had lowered price expectations for delivery Aug. 23 in response to the approach of what was expected to be a Hurricane Henri hitting Aug. 22 with power outages cutting demand through midweek. Storm-related customer outages totals ranged around 233,000 over the weekend, which had been cut down to about 55,000 by noon ET Aug. 23. On New York's Long Island, day-ahead on-peak prices averaged around $300/MWh for delivery Aug. 24 on the Intercontinental Exchange, up from day-ahead on-peak LMPs settling around $91/MWh on Aug. 20 for delivery Aug. 23. At ISO New England's Mass Hub, day-ahead on-peak power approached $70/MWh for delivery Aug. 24 on the Intercontinental Exchange, up from Northeast Massachusetts/Boston Hub LMPs settling around $60.50/MWh for delivery Aug. 23. Boston and New York City temperatures on Aug. 23 were forecast to be 8 degrees above average at 86 and 91 degrees Fahrenheit, respectively, on Aug. 24. National Grid's Rhode Island customers were hit the hardest, with more than 100,000 customers offline at some point due to the storm, but that state's customer total had dropped to about 37,000 by noon ET Aug. 23. The utility had almost 4,000 people working to restore service to customers in Rhode Island and Massachusetts whose service was cut by downed limbs, trees and poles. National Grid said it expected to have "the vast majority of customers restored by midweek." Eversource utilities in Connecticut and Rhode Island were also hard hit, totaling more than 69,000 customers without service at some point during the storm, but those numbers had been cut to about 6,300 as of noon ET Aug. 23. "Thousands of line and tree crews from as far away as Texas, Oklahoma, Florida and Canada and beyond are working nonstop to restore power to Eversource customers following intense rain and high winds form Tropical Storm Henri," Eversource said in a statement. Craig Hallstrom, Eversource president of regional electric operations, said, "While the shift in Henri's track spared Connecticut from the devastation it could have caused, the storm delivered the expected heavy rains, further saturating grounds that were already soaked from the remnants of Tropical Storm Fred and other storms." Edison Electric Institute said Aug. 23 that more than 13,500 workers from at least 31 states, the District of Columbia and Canada were helping in the restoration effort.

Firth: TVA plans to fuel the fire of climate change --As the world's top climate scientists released the IPCC 6 report documenting the catastrophic harms of climate change, offering irrefutable evidence of human causes and calling for immediate reductions in the emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, the Tennessee Valley Authority is doubling down on natural gas and the unproven and expensive addition of carbon capture.At the same time, TVA overemphasizes the challenges of implementing renewable energy sources and storage, as well as making distributed energy resources such as roof top solar uneconomical for those wanting to install it. In other words, the TVA is preparing to fuel the fire of climate change.Carbon capture is not a solution worth considering. Since carbon capture is an add-on to a new or existing plant, it will always increase the cost of energy to the customer. In contrast, the cost curve for renewables is down, meaning they get cheaper.Carbon capture will always require significant energy to be produced for the sole purpose of operating the carbon capture process. There is no technological way around this fact. This energy must either come from renewables or natural gas. If natural gas, then environmental destruction, pollution and environmental justice problems will continue. Renewables are better used to replace gas directly.Carbon capture will always require significant infrastructure to process and sequester the captured carbon dioxide. Carbon dioxide cannot be sequestered just anywhere. Appropriate geological formations are required for safe and permanent sequestration. As a result, scrubbing processes, pipelines, compressor stations and other infrastructure are required adding cost, environmental justice and safety concerns to the approach.

State reaches deal with DTE to purchase carbon credits based on state forest -The Michigan Department of Natural Resources (DNR) has an agreement with DTE Energy to purchase carbon offset credits from a state forest.The state says this is the nation’s first carbon credit project on state forest land.A company called Bluesource has been assessing the amount of carbon dioxide the trees take in at the Pigeon River Country State Forest.“And that carbon then is a commodity that can be sold on the voluntary markets and in revenue achieved from that,” said Scott Whitcomb, a senior policy advisor for the DNR.As DTE buys credits, it in turn plans to offer to sell the credits to its natural gas customers.”And it provides our customers with the option to bundle carbon offsets with their gas purchases to basically decrease their carbon footprint,” said Matt Paul, President of DTE Gas.Businesses are looking for ways to show they're doing their part to reduce the greenhouse gases that are causing climate change. But for some businesses, more efficient equipment and renewable energy will not get them to net zero.It’s estimated that DTE will spend $10 million on carbon credits.“It’s a 10 year agreement. So, the $10 million plus that we’re investing is over 10 years and it’ll amount to about a million tons of offsets in total.”What will the DNR do with that money? “It’s going to go into tree planting on state forest lands, and then it’s also going to go into the Fish and Game Fund and be available for wildlife habitat management,” said the DNR’s Whitcomb.

U.S. Court of Appeals: Ameren must install scrubbers at Jefferson County coal plant - — A federal appeals court on Friday upheld a judge’s 2019 ruling that ordered Ameren Missouri to install pollution controls at its Rush Island power plant south of Festus, a decision likely to force the St. Louis-based electric utility to rethink its long-term plans or spend hundreds of millions retrofitting a 1970s-era coal plant.The utility did win a partial victory, though. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit rejected one portion of the district court’s ruling, which ordered Ameren to also install pollution controls at another coal plant to make up for the harmful sulfur dioxide emissions that environmental regulators said Rush Island had emitted.The ruling is the latest in a lawsuit filed at the request of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency over a decade ago accusing Ameren of violating the Clean Air Act by making upgrades to its Rush Island plant that increased sulfur dioxide emissions without proper permits. The government’s lawsuit accused Ameren of installing new equipment in 2007 and 2010 that allowed Rush Island to burn more coal and thus emit more sulfur dioxide.The case plodded through the court system until 2019, when U.S. District Judge Rodney Sippel ordered Ameren to install sulfur dioxide control equipment, commonly known as scrubbers, at its Rush Island plant. In addition, he ordered Ameren to install another type of sulfur dioxide pollution control at Labadie, one of the largest coal plants in the country, to make up for the harm from Rush Island’s excess pollution.Sulfur dioxide, a byproduct of coal combustion, causes heart and lung issues blamed for tens of thousands of deaths in the U.S. each year. While scrubbers are commonly used on many coal plants across the country, Ameren has instead relied on low-sulfur coal from Wyoming to meet many pollution rules. Still, scrubbers can reduce sulfur dioxide by some 95%, far more than the reductions achieved from burning low-sulfur coal.Only one of Ameren’s plants, Sioux in St. Charles County, has scrubbers. Those cost ratepayers some $600 million to install in 2010, and the project was a prime driver of a rate increase the following year. Ameren argued in its appeal that the cost of the pollution controls mandated in Sippel’s ruling could exceed $2 billion.

Virginia Regulators Reject Plan to Extend Life of Amos, Mountaineer Coal Plants --The Virginia Corporation Commission on Monday rejected Appalachian Power’s plan to keep the John Amos and Mountaineer power plants in West Virginia operating through 2040.The commission denied the company permission to make wastewater treatment upgrades at the plants and pass the cost on to electric power customers in the state.Not making those upgrades would require the plants to close in 2028, under U.S. Environmental Protection Agency rules.West Virginia’s Public Service Commission earlier this month approved Appalachian Power’s plan for Amos, in Putnam County, and Mountaineer, in Mason County.It also approved similar upgrades to the Mitchell plant in Marshall County, which is jointly operated by Wheeling Power and Kentucky Power. West Virginia customers will start to see a slight increase on their bills next month as a result. Still, the decision by Virginia regulators casts doubt on whether the projects at Amos and Mountaineer will move forward.In July, regulators in Kentucky rejected Kentucky Power’s portion of theupgrades to Mitchell.It’s unclear if the wastewater projects at all three plants can be completed with only West Virginia customers paying for the cost.In a statement, Phil Moye, a spokesman for Appalachian Power, said the company would use the same approach to all three plants."Our next steps will be to evaluate our options in light of the conflicting Virginia and West Virginia state commission orders, determine the best path forward to meet the resource needs in each state, and return to the commissions if necessary for consideration of our updated costs and plans," he said.American Electric Power, which owns all three plants, has set a goal of cutting its carbon dioxide emissions by 80% of 2000 levels by 2030. Closing the three West Virginia plants and replacing them with cleaner sources of electricity would help the company achieve that goal.The company argued in all three states that upgrading the plants was better for ratepayers than finding replacement capacity. Only West Virginia agreed.

68% of U.S. coal fleet retirements since 2011 were plants fueled by bituminous coal - In 2011, the United States had 317.6 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired electric generation capacity. About 88.7 GW of that capacity was retired in the decade that followed. Units fired by bituminous coal accounted for the largest share of retired capacity, at 68%. Coal is classified into different types, or ranks. The two coal types most commonly used in U.S. coal-fired power plants are bituminous and subbituminous coal. Generating units that burn bituminous coal were generally older and smaller, leading to more of them retiring than units fueled by subbituminous coal, particularly from 2011 to 2015. The lower delivered price for subbituminous coal (because of more cost-effective mining practices) also makes coal plants that use it more economically competitive than bituminous coal-fired plants. In 2019, the delivered price of subbituminous coal was $1.86 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), compared with $2.26/MMBtu for bituminous coal. Another important factor in coal capacity retirements is the degree of competition from other electricity generation sources in the regions where the plants operate. Bituminous coal is predominantly mined in the Appalachian Basin and Illinois Basin; it’s the primary coal type used in coal plants in the northeast and southeast regions of the United States. However, many of these plants sourced their coal from mines in Appalachia, which quickly became uneconomical following the increase in natural gas production in the nearby Marcellus and Utica shale gas fields.To take advantage of their proximity to expansive natural gas supply, producers built a large amount of natural gas-fired capacity in Pennsylvania and Ohio on top of the Marcellus and Utica shales. Of the 93.5 GW of natural gas capacity built in the United States from 2011 to 2020, 14.3 GW is located in Pennsylvania and Ohio. The build-out of natural gas capacity added to the economic advantage of natural gas, driving bituminous coal-fired plant retirements. Bituminous coal-fired capacity retirements in Ohio and Pennsylvania accounted for 20% of all coal retirements between 2011 and 2020. Even with lower fuel prices, subbituminous coal-fired units are also retiring because of increased competition from natural gas and renewable sources. Subbituminous coal, primarily mined in Wyoming, is the dominant coal type used in the central part of the United States. Although coal-fired generation encounters less competition from natural gas in the central part of the country, the rapid growth of wind capacity in the central United States since 2011 has taken market share away from power plants using subbituminous coal.

Interior keeps slashing royalty rates for coal companies - For the third time in recent months, the Interior Department has lowered a coal company’s royalty fees to encourage it to continue mining publicly owned coal.Interior’s recent flurry of royalty rate reductions comes in spite of the Biden administration’s effort to take a “whole-of-government approach” to combating human-caused climate change.In May, the Bureau of Land Management granted royalty relief to Arch Resources Inc. for two of its coal mines on federal land in Colorado and Wyoming (Greenwire, July 28).The bureau did the same for Deseret Power Electric Cooperative’s Deserado mine in Rangely, Colo., last month, according to records on BLM’s minerals reporting system.Underground mines like Deserado typically pay a royalty of 8 percent of the gross value of coal produced on federal land. BLM approved a 2 percent rate request for the Deserado mine, which has received several royalty reductions in the past, on July 28.The decision by the climate-focused Biden administration confounded environmental activists, who say that Interior’s encouraging more coal production runs counter to efforts to combat human-caused global warming.“It truly highlights the economic lunacy of the federal coal program and the shameful willingness of the Bureau of Land Management to bend over backward to give the coal industry handouts,” Jeremy Nichols, climate and energy program director at WildEarth Guardians, said in an email.Deserado is the only coal supplier for the Bonanza Power Plant, a 500-megawatt facility on the Ute Indian Tribe’s Uintah and Ouray reservation in northeastern Utah.Bonanza is likewise the only destination for coal shipments from Deserado, which is connected the power plant by an electric railway. Deseret Power owns all three operations.Nichols said providing extra economic incentive for Deserado is unnecessary because Bonanza has no choice but to buy coal from the mine to keep the plant running.Interior did not answer E&E News’ questions asking why it granted the royalty relief.Deseret Power did not reply to two requests for comment.

Bitcoin mining company expands to Washington County - — Back in May, the Washington County Development Authority announced three new industries with over $80 million in investments. One of them is bitcoin mining. It's a term you've probably heard recently, but do you know what it is? Mawson Infrastructure Group Chief Operating Officer Liam Wilson says to think of bitcoin as digital money. "Bitcoin is the largest digital asset, it takes up about 80 percent of all digital asset networks," he says. "The idea of mining and chipping away at mines for gold and silver, that's not the reality in terms of bitcoin," says Wilson. So to mine it, he says there are a few requirements -- space, hundreds of computers solving algorithms, and a strong network. Wilson says the last part is what makes Washington County an ideal location. "Georgia has a lot of nuclear power, nuclear power is emission free, it's safe, and it's a fantastic source of power. We didn't want to be causing any damage to the environment, so that's why we chose Georgia," he says. Wilson says so far, they have one acre of shipping containers full of mines, but a new agreement signed on Tuesday added more for future construction. He says once it's all said and done, they'll need the manpower to monitor and make sure its running as it should be. "We'll have about 50 full time roles up and running by the time the whole site is complete. At the moment, we've got 10 and we'll move to 50." He says as construction continues, they'll be looking to fill more roles, and keep economic development growing in Washington County. "Everything from site engineers, basically junior people in the I.T. industry, to laborers, we need marketing staff, admin staff, finance staff, we have a legal department that's based here in Sandersville as well." With the lease officially signed on Tuesday, Wilson says they now have a total of about 16 acres of land in Sandersville to work with.

Decommissioning progresses apace at Oyster Creek and Pilgrim - --Holtec Decommissioning International (HDI) - a wholly-owned subsidiary of Holtec International - has announced decommissioning progress at the Oyster Creek nuclear power plant in New Jersey and the Pilgrim plant in Massachusetts. All fissile material in Oyster Creek's reactor building has now been transferred to the on-site Independent Spent Fuel Storage Installation (ISFSI), while at Pilgrim the transfer of the used fuel in wet storage to its ISFSI is proceeding at a record rate. At Oyster Creek, 2433 used fuel bundles have been safely loaded into Holtec canisters and transported to the ISFSI in less than 5 months, with peak transfer rate reaching two-and-a-half canisters per week, HDI said. The reactor building is now devoid of any fissile material. The protected area at the site has now been reduced from approximately 150 acres to 6 acres with the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) authorisation, making the task of the security workforce substantially easier and a more concentrated effort. Risk management and innovative use of tooling has allowed Oyster Creek to perform reactor internal segmentation in parallel with moving fuel to dry storage, HDI said, with only three canisters needed for the loading and storage of Greater-Than-Class C waste. A systematic approach to site building demolition is ongoing at Oyster Creek using an innovative process that involves preparing the impacted buildings for open air demolition, it added. Hazardous materials - such as asbestos and lead - are stripped out and components in the structures are decontaminated or encapsulated to ensure containment of contaminants. Some of the structures already dismantled at Oyster Creek include the air ejection off-gas building, the torus water storage tank, the radioactive waste storage tank and several other structures originally scheduled for demolition in 2024 and 2025. Pragmatic decontamination efforts have enabled up to 95% of waste from the torus water storage tank and components such as the hydraulic control units to be salvaged as scrap metal. HDI says it envisages recycling as many spare parts and components as possible. The site has completed the shipment of over 132,000 feet (over 40,000 metres), over five million pounds (2268 tonnes), of waste to date.

Texas lawmakers seek to ban highest level of nuclear waste - After failing this spring, Texas lawmakers are again trying to ban the most dangerous type of radioactive waste from entering the state — at the same time as a nuclear waste disposal company in West Texas pursues a federal application to store the highly radioactive materials.Environmental and consumer advocates for years have decried a proposal to build a 332-acre site in West Texas near the New Mexico border to store the riskiest type of nuclear waste: spent fuel rods from nuclear power plants, which can remain radioactive for hundreds of thousands of years. Strong political interests in Texas, from Gov. Greg Abbott to some oil and gas companies operating in the Permian Basin, have opposed the company’s application.But a bill that sought to ban the highly radioactive material failed during the regular legislative session that ended in May. That bill, filed by State Rep. Brooks Landgraf, R-Odessa, whose district includes Andrews County where the existing nuclear waste company Waste Control Specialists operates, included a big break on fees for the company. Some lawmakers also thought the previous bill’s language wasn’t strong enough to actually ban the materials.Now, Landgraf has again filed a bill during this year’s second special session that seeks to ban the highly radioactive materials from coming to the company’s facility in his district. The House Environmental Regulation Committee on Monday passedHouse Bill 7, which does not include any changes to fees for the existing company, one of the key criticisms that killed the proposed legislation earlier this year.“So in other words, this is designed to be clean and easy so that we can go on record as a state [opposing high-level nuclear waste storage],” Landgraf said. Waste Control Specialists has been disposing of the nation’s low-level nuclear waste — including tools, building materials and protective clothing exposed to radioactivity — for a decade in Andrews County. The company, with a partner, is pursuing a federal Nuclear Regulatory Commission license to store spent nuclear fuel on a site adjacent to its existing facility.

‘A combination of failures:’ why 3.6m pounds of nuclear waste is buried on a popular California beach - More than 2 million visitors flock each year to California’s San Onofre state beach, a dreamy slice of coastline just north of San Diego. The beach is popular with surfers, lies across one of the largest Marine Corps bases in the Unites States and has a 10,000-year-old sacred Native American site nearby. It even landed a shout-out in the Beach Boys’ 1963 classic Surfin’ USA.But for all the good vibes and stellar sunsets, beneath the surface hides a potential threat: 3.6m lb of nuclear waste from a group of nuclear reactors shut down nearly a decade ago. Decades of political gridlock have left it indefinitely stranded, susceptible to threats including corrosion, earthquakes and sea level rise.The San Onofre reactors are among dozens across the United States phasing out, but experts say they best represent the uncertain future of nuclear energy.“It’s a combination of failures, really,” said Gregory Jaczko, who chaired the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the top federal enforcer, between 2009 and 2012, of the situation at San Onofre. That waste is the byproduct of the San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station (Songs), three nuclear reactors primarily owned by the utility Southern California Edison (SCE). Federal regulators had already cited SCE for several safety issues, including leaking radioactive waste and falsified firewatch records. But when a new steam generator began leaking a small amount of radioactivity in January 2012, just one year after it was replaced, it was SCE’s most serious problem yet. A subsequent report from the NRC’s inspector general found federal inspectors had overlooked red flags in 2009, and that SCE had replaced its own steam generators without proper approval. SCE tried to fix the problem but decided in 2013 to shut the plant down for good.Activists thought they had scored a victory when the reactor shut down – until they learned that the nuclear waste they had produced would remain on-site. Without a government-designated place to store the waste, the California Coastal Commission in 2015 approved the construction of an installation at San Onofre to store it until 2035. In August 2020, workers concluded the multi-year burial process, loading the last of 73 canisters of waste into a concrete enclosure.San Onofre is not the only place where waste is left stranded. As more nuclear sites shut down, communities across the country are stuck with the waste left behind. Spent fuel is stored at 76 reactor sites in 34 states, according to the Department of Energy.Handling those stockpiles has been an afterthought to the NRC, the federal enforcer, said Allison Macfarlane, another former commission chair.

Columbus energy aggregation delay blamed on AEP pressure --The City of Columbus could have had a municipal energy aggregation program that might have saved residents money on their electric bills since 2014, but AEP pressured city officials to drop the idea, says a former official who was deeply involved in the process.Mark Shanahan was chairman of the now-defunct Columbus Energy Review Committee created by then-Mayor Michael B. Coleman and then-Council President Andrew J. Ginther to study the aggregation issue.He said the committee's official report, sent to the city in July 2014, unambiguously supported moving forward with aggregation in Columbus.However, Shanahan recently told The Dispatch that shortly thereafter he received pressure from aides for top city officials to unilaterally change the panel's recommendation because of opposition and pressure from American Electric Power Ohio. The utility did not want an aggregation program in which residents were automatically signed up, because AEP was concerned that FirstEnergy would outbid it to provide the service, he said.Shanahan said the first report was the result of a series of public hearings and research that found Columbus lagged other Ohio cities and towns in delivering environmentally friendly power options and potential double-digit cost savings to its residents. No one had testified in opposition, officials said at the time.But within weeks, the committee's work seemed to have disappeared from the city's radar. Last month, now-Mayor Ginther's office couldn't locate the committee's 2014 report after The Dispatch requested it.The first report was delivered with a cover letter that declared aggregation "will offer eligible Columbus customers the potential for meaningful cost savings," and would make Columbus "a national leader in crafting a comprehensive and sustainable energy plan for its citizens," according to a copy that Shanahan provided to The Dispatch.Shanahan said he was informed of the proposal's demise shortly after his committee had delivered its first recommendations. The news came in phone calls and in a subsequent meeting with two city officials, Clark and Coleman aide Christie Angel."We can't do this," Shanahan said he was told. "You need to rewrite it. ... They were clear that AEP said you can't do it." "

 Democratic Lawmaker Wants Records, Investigation On Former Ohio Utilities Commission Chair And FirstEnergy -A Democratic state lawmaker says he wants more information on the relationship between the former chair of the state’s utility regulating panel and FirstEnergy.It's the latest in the federal nuclear power plant bailout case that’s seen several plea deals, while Republican former House Speaker Larry Householder or former Ohio GOP chair Matt Borges maintain their innocence.Rep. Jeffrey Crossman (D-Parma) wants an independent investigation into FirstEnergy and Sam Randazzo when he was Public Utilities Commission chair. Randazzo resigned in November after his home was raided by the FBI.Crossman said he met with current PUCO chair Jenifer French last week.In a letter to her following up on that conversation, Crossman said he wants her to launch an ethics investigation into Randazzo, to file a bar complaint against him as an attorney, and to release Randazzo’s emails and other records on the Icebreaker wind project in Lake Erie that Crossman says Randazzo tried to kill."We need to get clarification as to what was happening and when during his ten years co chair, because it seems to have conflicted with his duties as PUCO chair," Crossman said. “I expect to get documents as requested. If I don't, then we'll take a look at filing a lawsuit." Crossman said the PUCO has started some internal investigations, but he said, "internal investigations smell like a cover up to me. We need to hire an independent investigator that's going to consolidate all these investigations, turn over every rock and every leaf and figure out what exactly happened during the time that Sam Randazzo was there and apparently working at FirstEnergy's behest." FirstEnergy admitted to paying a $4.3 million bribe to Randazzo, who has not been charged.

Veto area now dealing with oil spill --(WTAP) - Veto Lake has long been a destination for recreational boaters and fishermen. The area is also the location of oil and gas drilling sites. Whether by coincidence or otherwise, oil was found in the lake this week. The Ohio Department of Natural Resources was dispatched to the scene. In response to our inquiry, the DNR issued a statement saying it believes the problem was the result of a failure of a previously unidentified oil well. “The Division of Wildlife is performing a rapid emergency drawdown at Veto Lake due to what we now believe to be a cap failure on a previously unidentified abandoned oil well,” “The lake level will be drawn down in a controlled manner until it reaches the level necessary to properly assess the situation and make the needed repair. During and following the drawdown, we will be monitoring the dam embankments and abutments to ensure the integrity of the structure is not impacted. Existing gate structures on the lake are controlling the water flow to ensure contaminated water does not travel downstream. People we spoke to earlier this month, concerned about possible contamination of their private wells from drilling wastewater, are even more skeptical about this situation. But they told us the bigger concern is not to their own wells, but to public water supplies, even to cities like Marietta and Belpre. “We’re opening up a keg of dynamite here; if we contaminate our groundwater, I don’t know what’s going to happen.” “I have talked to some people who have knowledge of this kind of thing happening out west,” “and it cost millions of dollars to have water piped out to a town out there, because if produced water ends up in the aquifer out there, they told us that this water would never be drank again.” The RAMPP Company, just outside Marietta, is several miles away from the area where a suspect oil and gas drilling operation is located. But it has seen traces of the wastewater that operation is producing. “We’ve seen it come to the surface here, and they’ve seen it come out to the Veto area,” . “And it’s going to take the path of least resistance, from the reports that we’ve read, what’s in the water-the heavy metals-it’s going to contaminate the groundwater sooner or later.” In 2020, the Ohio Department of Natural Resources Division of Oil and Gas Resources Management commissioned a study of reports of an increased flow of salt water, also known as brine, or wastewater, from a saltwater injection well located in Dunham Township. The study resulted from concerns raised by residents, many of whom have private wells located on their properties. “The lord only knows how many wells were drilled here that weren’t plugged; and the pipes rotting in them,” said one resident, who declined to be identified. “I own land myself down here that has three or four of these wells. They’re open to the atmosphere, with oil and gas bubbling up out of them, and we’re concerned that it’s going to be in our fresh drinking water before long.” Residents of the Veto Road area are not convinced. Many have their own wells that supply them with natural gas they say have now been ruined by the wastewater they’ve seen surface on their land.

Ohio investigating after crude oil found emptying into Veto Lake near Marietta - The Columbus Dispatch --A 160-acre lake in southeast Ohio is contaminated with crude oil from an unknown source, according to the Ohio Department of Natural Resources.A resident reported on Thursday there was a crude oil leak in Plum Run, which empties into Veto Lake in Washington County.The spill happened on the edge of the lake, said Bob Lane, 76, of Marietta, who owns oil and gas wells in the area. He was one of the first people on scene."People here are totally fed up with this," he said. ODNR's Division of Oil and Gas Resources Management responded to contain the "small amount of oil and remediate any impacts to the area," said Stephanie O’Grady, a media and outreach specialist in an email to The Dispatch. "The division is also working to locate the source of the oil and investigate the cause."Lane thinks he may know the cause, noting that there is a well dating back to the 1930s where the spill site is located."We talked to a landowner whose family used to own the land where this well is," he said. The man's uncle drilled numerous wells in the area, including some that would be underwater now at Veto Lake."Some of those wells that his uncle drilled, he said, have to be under that lake," Lane said, who added that the man told him there's an orphan well at or near the spill site."He said there's no doubt in his mind his uncle drilled that because he remembered him being down there drilling in that area," Lane said.Veto Lake was built by ODNR in the 1950s. The lake is home to a plethora of fish, including largemouth bass, sported bass, bluegill, channel fish and saugeye. Ohio has an unknown number of orphan oil and gas wells that remain unplugged. Before regulations were enacted for the oil and gas industry, conventional wells were not tracked.Orphan wells are a source of natural gas and can leak oil to the surface. They also can become problematic when hydraulic fracturing waste migrates from class II injection wells, in which drillers store drilling waste, and channels through the old wells' casings, sending waste into the open.Thursday's spill is less than a mile from a class II injection well, Redbird No. 4, that had documented issues in late 2019.In that case, the hydraulic fracturing waste migrated from formations thousands of feet below ground at the Redbird and flowed into producing oil and gas wells about five miles away.That incident prompted ODNR to test well water of nearby residents out of concern about contamination, conduct a geological assessment and plug at least one nearby orphan well. The investigation did not find contamination in well water.There are more than 200 class II injection wells in Ohio.Because the fluid from injection wells is incredibly salty, there's also a possibility that the waste fluid damaged metal casings of oil and gas producing wells when it migrated."It could have caused either a surface leak or a subsurface leak of oil. So the leaking Redbird injection water coming up into the producing wells could have caused an oil leak," Townsend-Small said.People in the community have every right to be worried, she said."This is scary. This is sounds like it's all turning into a bad nightmare," Townsend-Small said.

Brine spilled at injection well near Barnesville - — A fracking waste spill that occurred Friday along Ohio 800 north of Barnesville was being cleaned up Monday.“At 5 p.m. Friday the well operator on duty reported a mechanical failure resulting in a release of fluid from the containment area,” Bryan Force of Force Environmental Solutions wrote in a text message Monday. “The ODNR and EPA were contacted immediately. Cleanup started today (Monday) and will be completed by the end of the day Tuesday. Corrective action was taken to prevent a mechanical failure from happening again.”According to an email from David Roorbach, public information officer with the Ohio Department of Natural Resources, om Friday a brine release of 400-500 gallons was reported at the Buckeye UIC Barnesville No. 1 injection well.The incident occurred when the transfer line failed. The brine was released onto the offloading area and flowed into an offsite ditch.Roorbach said the Division of Oil and Gas Resources Management visited site, which was stabilized late Friday night.He said Force Environmental Solutions worked through the weekend and will continue to work this week to remediate the area.Roorbach said the impact to wildlife was very minor, though area residents told The Times Leader that fish on a nearby stream had been killed. Dispatchers at the Ohio State Highway Patrol post in St. Clairsville confirmed that troopers were called out Friday to assist with traffic control on Ohio 800.Bryan Force said his company has owned the well for about a year and a half. It was purchased from CNX Resources Corp. As part of the cleanup operation, a contractor struck and damaged a waterline. “The area was marked by all utility companies prior to excavating but a service line was missed resulting in a loss of water service until the water company could fix it,” Force said via text. “We apologize for any inconvenience this caused any local residents.” Later Monday, however, the new accident resulted in a 48-hour boil order for households along Ohio 800.

Too Much Fracking Waste & Too Many Unanswered Questions - In 2019 Washington County had the second-highest level of injection well activity in the state at 8.1 million barrels of brine waste, 68% of which was from out-of-state (PA & WV) sources. Our county has the highest number of wells in the state. In 2011 there were 1.9 million barrels of brine waste injected in our county. Washington County is one of 22 counties in the officially designated Appalachian region, where the vast majority of injection wells are located. This leads to my first question: If there are deleterious effects of injection wells in this region, wouldn't this constitute a disproportionate impact and involve an issue of environmental justice?Class II injection wells, as they are categorized by the Ohio Department of Natural Resources, Division of Oil & Gas Resources Management, are deep ground penetrations that push waste from hydraulic fracturing (fracking) into the ground. This division of ODNR is tasked with reviewing requests for permits and for conducting regular inspections of these wells.This fracking waste is referred to as "brine," but much of it is radioactive and is composed of water and additional chemicals, such as lead, arsenic, formaldehyde, mercury. Although only one percent of brine contains these chemicals, when we are dealing with a million gallons of water per well, this is not about teaspoons full. The shocking fact about this fracking waste is that, due to congressional action, referred to as the Halliburton rule, oil and gas companies are not required to reveal the contents of fracking waste. A recent article in the New York Times (July 13, 2021) has pointed out that toxic chemicals from hydraulic fracturing can transform into PFAS, a substance that has been linked to cancer and birth defects in people. PFAS is long-lasting and harmful to humans, wild mammals, and birds. I am aware that injection wells have cement casings and annulus controls and that they are customarily drilled to a depth of approximately 3,000 feet while aquifers, from which drinking water is obtained normally are drilled at 200-300 feet. This means that, if properly done, injection wells should not pose any risk to aquifers or surface water. The keyword in this conclusion is "properly." Spills. leaks, discharges, excessive amounts of brine, and other potentially harmful events are not uncommon at injection well sites, especially given the vast proliferation of injection wells in Washington County and throughout eastern Ohio.In November/December 2020 I reviewed 23 violation reports, 26 compliance reports, and 1,155 inspection reports provided by the ODNR. After my review, I posed several questions to the public representative of ODNR on injection wells. These questions had to do with specific reports on injection wells in the county, where spills or related violations were reported, what action was taken, and whether follow-up was made. On December 9 I sent a list of over 25 questions from inspection reports, which I grouped into the following categories: Redbird #4 injection well (aka #24), where numerous problems were cited, spills & leaks, conditions of wells at inspection, issues related to the recently approved barge offload facility in Marietta (owner Deep Rock), ownership of wells, and roads and transport to wells. I have not yet received responses to any of these questions, several of which relate to spills and leaks (at dykes and other places), which may have flowed into aquifers, streams, and rivers.

Utica Green Conference to focus on ESG initiatives --The Utica Green Conference will take place on Tuesday, October 12, 2021. This will be the first major event to be held in the soon to open Constellation Center for Excellence on the Pro Football Hall of Fame campus in Canton, Ohio. The conference will educate and prepare companies for the changes coming to the oil and gas industry. Is your company aware of the sustainability changes coming to the oil and gas industry in Utica Shale? Is your company discussing these changes? Is your company adapting to the sustainability changes coming? Does your company know what ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) guidelines will do to your business? Produced by Shale Directories and the Canton Regional Chamber of Commerce, the Utica Green Conference will uniquely showcase the industry’s continued sustainability-focused progress and results. The conference agenda is focused on highlighting the industry’s ESG initiatives, the critical role of American natural gas in the context of the broader energy transition, as well as insights about where the industry has been, where it is now, and where it is going to make the Utica Shale even more sustainable. The conference will feature speakers from Encino Energy, which is a presenting event sponsor. Barbco Inc. is the Luncheon Sponsor for this groundbreaking event in which over 300 attendees are expected. Officials from the EPA and other regulatory bodies are scheduled to attend. Lastly, Tony Barbera of Barbco will join an industry panel to discuss issues pertaining to the green future of America. This event seeks to create a platform to facilitate the exchange of ideas, drawing from energy company representatives, sector experts, regulators, public officials, and the public at large on the industry’s ongoing ESG actions and related topics. The Utica Green Conference is an important and topical conference for the energy sector and its stakeholders.

World science community watching as natural gas-hydrogen power plant comes to Hannibal Ohio - Hannibal, Ohio, is a tiny port stop on the Ohio River, with just 1,000 people living in Ohio Township, and just about 14,000 in Monroe County. About 35 miles upstream is Wheeling, West Virginia, and about 45 miles downstream is Marietta, Ohio. But this tiny place in what is considered the Appalachian part of Ohio, a new power plant that is gaining the notice of the scientific world is about to open here at the end of August. Long Ridge Energy, which sits on 1,600 acres of property where an aluminum smelter closed about a decade ago, will be producing electricity that will mix natural gas and hydrogen as the power source.Hydrogen is being “rediscovered” as a environmentally friendly energy source, though it is more simple than complicated: It is the simplest and most abundant element on earth, consisting of only one proton and one electron. But there is a catch. It doesn’t typically exist by itself in nature and must be produced from compounds that contain it.“What we are doing is very important to the renewable energy industry, and we have somewhat flown under the radar as to being a leader in some big changes that are coming for the energy industry,” Robert “Bo” Wholey, the president of Long Ridge Energy and Pittsburgh native, said to Ohio Capital Journal.“There have been some plants that have opened in Europe and Australia recently that are using more hydrogen, and plans to do other such plants in the U.S. in coming years, but we think this is the first operation in America to combine hydrogen and natural gas for clean energy,” he continued. “What we are doing is using what is here in this part of Ohio now — water and natural gas wells — and using them to reduce and ultimately eliminate carbon emissions.”Some analysts are skeptical about whether these combo-plants are a viable path to decarbonization, but Wholey is optimistic Long Ridge can get a larger and larger mix of hydrogen into the energy production over the long run, perhaps even to 100%.

PTT Finally Admits Truth – Ohio Cracker Project on Indefinite Hold - In February of this year, PTT Global Chemical adamantly claimed a final investment decision (FID) to build the $10 billion ethane cracker plant project in Belmont County, OH would happen by “middle of 2021” (see PTT Says Recent Reports of Ohio Cracker Decision Delay “Not True”). They lied. Again. Last week we told you that since May, PTT Global Chemical’s parent company, PTT Pcl (Thailand’s biggest company by far), has spent almost $10 billion to build an electric vehicle business and buy up petrochemical assets in Europe and renewable-energy projects in Asia (see PTT Blows $10B on Renewables Since May, Still No OH Cracker FID). Yet they can’t scrap together the money to build the Ohio cracker plant. PTT Global Chemical has finally come clean and admitted there will be no FID for the cracker plant–not until they secure a partner to help finance the project. In other words, it’s on indefinite hold. We share a view that our friend (and M&A expert) Charlie Schliebs expressed at a PIOGA meeting in May: the Ohio cracker will get built “one way or the other,” meaning PTT may end up selling the project to someone else (see Expert Says PTT Ethane Cracker in Belmont, OH Will Get Built). Exxon, are you listening? In an email to S&P Global Platts, PTT said the project is on indefinite hold until a new investor can be found: PTTGC America’s final investment decision on a new petrochemical complex in southeast Ohio remains on indefinite hold until the company secures a new partner in the project, the company said in an email Aug. 25.“PTTGCA is currently focused on securing a partner for the project,” the email said. “Once there is a partner in place, the company will be in a position to reach FID.”In July 2020, the company announced it had struck a deal with Energy Storage Ventures to develop a $250 million natural gas liquids storage and transportation facility for the proposed complex. The facility would be the first underground NGL storage site in the Marcellus and Utica shale formations.Shortly before PTTGCA announced the storage deal, the company said that its former partner in the petrochemical complex, South Korea’s Daelim, had withdrawn from the project.According to permitting documents, PTTGC’s project includes a 1.5 million mt/year cracker, two 350,000 mt/year high density polyethylene plants, a 450,000 mt/year HDPE plant and a 450,000 mt/year linear low density PE plant.*

Federal Pipeline Agency Issues Warning Letter To Shell For Falcon Project --The federal agency in charge of pipeline safety issued a July 16 warning letter to Shell for safety problems on a pipeline that will feed its Beaver County ethane cracker. In August 2020, inspectors from the federal Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) examined a section of the Falcon pipeline, which will carry natural gas liquids to the plant. The agency alleged Shell committed two “probable violations” by failing to place pipeline sections at a construction site in Beaver County on protective padding. The maximum penalty allowed under the law would have been $225,134 per violation, per day. However, the agency chose not to issue a fine. Instead, it ordered the company to correct the alleged deficiencies. In a letter to PHMSA, Shell says the two infractions were isolated, and that it’s inspected the 97-mile pipeline, which goes through Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia, multiple times. This included one final inspection, known as a “jeep,” before the entire length was lowered into the ground. It says it will perform a full safety check on the line in two years, ahead of the five years mandated by federal regulations. The pipeline had previously been the subject of scrutiny from PHMSA in a separate case. A whistleblower complaint in 2019 alleged contractors working on the pipeline used defective corrosion coatings. But PHMSA ended that investigation — which was not related to the recent warning letter — without issuing any penalties against Shell.

Lawmakers To Pipeline Operators In PA: Keep Us Safe, You Pay - — The message in the proposed legislation is clear: Monitor this pipeline for leaks and other dangers and make the companies pay to keep Chester County safe. Two Pennsylvania lawmakers representing Chester and nearby counties are aiming to address the risks brought by pipelines that traverse the region with legislation in both the PA House and Senate that would make the pipeline operators pay for risk mitigation measures. Pennsylvania Rep. Danielle Friel Otten (D-155th) has re-introduced a bill (HB 1735) from 2019-2020. Friel Otten reintroduced the legislation as House Bill 1364 in May, and this week Pennsylvania Sen. Katie Muth (D-44th) announced she will soon introduce companion legislation in the PA Senate. The two noted in their memoranda to fellow legislators that "Title 35 of the Pennsylvania Consolidated Statutes requires 'every school district and custodial child care facility, in cooperation with the local Emergency Management Agency and the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency,' to 'develop and implement a comprehensive disaster response and emergency preparedness plan consistent with the guidelines developed by the Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency and other pertinent State requirements.'" Both Muth and Friel Otten continued in their memos, "But as Mariner East and other pipelines have brought new and unmitigated risks to our communities across the state, they have left our municipalities, school districts, and emergency responders without any reliable means of monitoring pipelines for leaks or alerting communities of pipeline incidents, leaving these local government entities unable to fulfill these statutory emergency preparedness requirements." The legislation aims both at safety for residents who live along the trajectory of the pipelines — some of which carry volatile liquid gas — but also at the cost of creating the detection and warning systems to accompany pipeline risk. The memos pointed out, "The cost of mitigating pipeline risks currently falls on taxpayers, local municipalities, and county governments." The legislation would establish a Pipeline Early Detection and Warning Board and empower that board to collect fees from pipeline operators. Those fees would be used to establish the Pipeline Early Detection and Warning Fund. The legislation would require distribution of money from the fund in the form of grants to municipalities, school districts, or county governments for the development of Early Detection and Warning Systems, which will alert communities and emergency responders and mitigate risks of a pipeline incident." Read HB 1364 here.

Advocates tell DOE that the cost of Appalachian petrochemicals too great - The Business Journals -Environmental advocates made their case for environmental justice and the health and economic impacts of ethane and petrochemical development in Appalachia during a public hearing Tuesday convened by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management. DOE has been tasked by the U.S. Congress to produce a report on the potential value of Appalachia-produced ethane, a byproduct of natural gas, production and use in industry domestically as well as its transport internationally for manufacturing. DOE convened Tuesday’s session to get advocates’ and residents’ opinions about the development in a report that will be published by the end of the year. Opening presentations from Sean O’Leary of the Ohio River Valley Institute and Amanda Woodrum of Reimagine Appalachia questioned the buildout of the gas and petrochemical industry. O’Leary, reviewing research published earlier this year by ORVI, said that the oil and gas boom in Appalachia has rarely provided a large amount of jobs and economic impact to the communities where the fossil fuels are being produced.O’Leary said the petrochemical industry’s rise in Appalachia would be unlikely to benefit the region either. Among those reasons are that natural gas and petroleum industries are among the least-labor intensive sectors in industry, many of the jobs that do occur are transient workers who go from job to job, and then the proceeds are to management and investors.“The Appalachian petrochemical value chain, which starts with natural gas production, has not been and is not positioned to become a river of job growth and prosperity,” O’Leary said.Woodrum acknowledged that good-paying jobs have come with the extractive industries that have been a large part of the region from the coal mining, but she said that it has led to health impacts in the region and left massive issues like large environmental legacies including abandoned mines and steel plants. She said adding petrochemical industry would be a “doubling down” on the same types of development.Reimagine Appalachia, along with the Ohio River Valley Institute, said there’s a better way that doubles down on clean energy investment and clean up that benefits everyone in the region, including racial groups that have been left behind.“We are focused on creating a vision for what a 21st century sustainable Appalachia looks like,” Woodrum said. “It needs to have jobs equivalent to those found in extractive industries, but if we create an economy, a sustainable economy, we want to be thinking through one that is good for workers, good for communities and good for the environment.”Much of the public comment was critical of the industry.“We’re angry,” said one member on a forum that accompanied the hearing.Jill Hunker called herself a “fracking refugee.” She lives in Belmont County, Ohio, the site of Ohio’s heaviest natural gas development and the potential site for an ethane cracker proposed by PTT Global Chemical across from Moundsville, West Virginia. Hunker said that the region is already seeing the devastation from air pollution in the natural gas industry and soon the plastics industry, and that building it out further would ramp up the climate crisis and create a bigger public health crisis.“It will become the next cancer alley,” Hunker said.Lisa Graves-Marcucci, a community advocate in the Mon Valley who works for the Environmental Integrity Project, said pipelines have been a major concern including the Revolution Pipeline, which failed due to a landslide in September 2018 that led to a large fire in Center Township, Beaver County. Its owner, Energy Transfer Partners, in August was fined $140,000 related to the construction of a well pipeline in 2019 and 2020 that the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection said was the source of several violations.She said that pipelines are continuing to be built in the region that aren’t stable. “Sadly it’s not a question of if but when another tragedy is going to occur,” she said.

Antis Pack DOE Dog & Pony Show Hearing to Bash M-U Petchem Industry | Marcellus Drilling News -Have you ever noticed how politicians like to “study” things? Why is that? We suppose the results of all those studies gives them political cover to make unpopular votes on key issues. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management is in the process of conducting a study on the prospects for a petrochemical industry in the Marcellus/Utica. As part of that study, DOE held an online/virtual hearing yesterday to elicit comments on the environmental, health and community impacts of the petrochemical industry from ethane crackers and pipelines. In what appears to be a put-up job, a dog and pony show, the hearing was packed with radical anti-fossil fuel nuts who bashed away at the shale industry.DOE has been tasked by the politicians in Congress to produce a report on the potential value of Appalachia-produced ethane–its production and use domestically as well as its transport internationally for manufacturing. In a sad display of naked fossil fuel hatred, speaker after speaker offered lies and smears and innuendo, completely devoid of facts, during yesterday’s hearing.Jennifer Wilcox, acting assistant secretary and principal deputy assistant secretary for fossil energy and carbon management at DOE under Joe Biden appears to be the instigator, prompting the looneys to turn out and blather on. She said her office is taking a “new approach” to unearthing “racial inequities” around energy and manufacturing. From the Pittsburgh (PA) Business Times:DOE has been tasked by the U.S. Congress to produce a report on the potential value of Appalachia-produced ethane, a byproduct of natural gas, production and use in industry domestically as well as its transport internationally for manufacturing. DOE convened Tuesday’s session to get advocates’ and residents’ opinions about the development in a report that will be published by the end of the year.It’s a topic of intense importance in the Pittsburgh region and the three-state region of Appalachia, with the future of two industries in the balance: Natural gas drilling in the Marcellus and Utica shales produce vast amounts of ethane, which are used as the building blocks of plastic products and a significant source of revenue for companies like Range Resources (NYSE: RRC), which ships ethane to Europe via the Mariner East pipelines. But just as important is the Pittsburgh region’s growing standing in the petrochemical industry, personified directly by the nearly $10 billion petrochemical plant that will become operational sometime in 2022 after years of construction.DOE is focusing in, for the first time, on the environmental, health and community impacts of the petrochemical industry in ethane crackers — like the Beaver County plant — and pipelines. DOE acknowledged some of the concerns that environmentalists and community members have had about the health concerns as well as the traditional racial inequities around energy and manufacturing.“We are determined to tackle these inequities and it signifies a new approach for our office,” said Jennifer Wilcox, acting assistant secretary and principal deputy assistant secretary for fossil energy and carbon management. “Environmental justice, equity and workforce development are at the center of our efforts.” DOE doesn’t have any decision-making in this matter and are instead just advising Congress on Appalachian petrochemical development.

Natural gas production up in Pennsylvania - Pittsburgh Business Times - Pennsylvania’s natural gas producers took advantage of higher prices to increase production in the second quarter to the highest levels since mid-2019.There were 1.8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas produced in Pennsylvania’s wells in the quarter ended June 30, up 7.8% from a year ago, according to data released by Pennsylvania’s Independent Fiscal Office. That was the highest level of production since the third quarter of 2019 when production was up 9.4%. The data comes from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection.While some of the increase could be tied to year-over-year comparisons with Covid-19, that’s not the entire story: Prices are up as well, which means that Pennsylvania natural gas producers are getting more on average for their product than at at any point since 2019. Prices are up 52% to $2.07 per million British Thermal Unit, compared to $1.36 per million BTU in the second quarter of 2020.The growth was highlighted by production in June, which was up 10% from a year ago.The top county year to date has been Susquehanna, which has seen a 1.8% decline in production volume. Washington County, whose year-to-date growth has been 18% remains in second place among counties in the commonwealth, followed by Bradford, Greene and Lycoming.

Pennsylvania catching up with Texas natural gas production - Pennsylvania’s natural gas production is closer than ever to the top-producing state in the country, according to a new state report. Pennsylvania was within 1,000 billion cubic feet of Texas’ natural gas production levels through the second quarter of 2021, according to the Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office’s quarterly natural gas production report. This is the closest Pennsylvania has ever been to Texas’s production levels. Pennsylvania produced 3,150 bcf through May 2021; Texas produced 4,118 bcf in that time period. Last year the second quarter report showed Pennsylvania producing 3,002 bcf through May and Texas producing 4,386 bcf. In 2020, Pennsylvania produced 7,290 bcf for the entire year, and Texas produced 10,291 bcf. “Pennsylvania is right on the heels of Texas, the nation’s top natural gas producer, because the fundamentals of the Marcellus and Utica shale plays are strong, pipeline capacity has improved, and producers and midstream operators continue to make efficiency gains,” said Dave Callahan, president of the Marcellus Shale Coalition, in a statement. Through May 2021, the state reports shows that Pennsylvania had the strongest year-over-year growth of any of the top five gas-producing states. It tracks with the state’s continuous strong growth in production over the past decade. Pennsylvania jumped into the number two spot in annual natural gas production in 2013, once the Marcellus Shale production allowed it to catch up with and surpass Alaska and Louisiana’s production levels. Ever since then, production levels have only climbed. Pennsylvania production made up about 18.7% of nationwide production through May.

Fire at PES refinery site in South Philly owned by Hilco under control - An unused fuel storage tank being dismantled by welders caught fire Monday afternoon in South Philadelphia at the former Philadelphia Energy Solutions site, now owned by Hilco Redevelopment Partners and was declared under control several hours later. The fire broke out about 1:15 p.m. at the tank on the 1,300-acre property off Penrose Avenue and South 26th Street. The Philadelphia Fire Department did not have to evacuate any residents, and no one was injured. Up to 100 firefighters responded. The fire was declared under control by 4:30 p.m. The Fire Marshal’s Office is investigating the cause, according to Fire Department spokesperson Kathy Matheson. The NorthStar Contracting Group, which is responsible for demolition at the PES site, said workers were performing “a routine torch cutting” of the empty oil tank and noticed smoke coming from the top of the tank, apparently from residue inside. NorthStar workers extinguished the “smoldering” fire with equipment that is kept on site, the statement said. However, someone from outside PES called the Philadelphia Fire Department and firefighters assisted, as well as inspected the tank to ensure it was not burning. The PES site was forced to close in June 2019 after a leak and explosion rattled the neighborhood and city, though no one was harmed. The city dodged several potential catastrophes during the blast that released 5,000 pounds of a deadly chemical and launched pieces of shrapnel as large as a truck hurtling across the refinery complex. At the time, it was the East Coast’s largest refinery. The property was sold in 2020 in bankruptcy court for $225.5 million to Hilco Redevelopment Partners, which pledged to demolish and clean up the site and rebuild it as a mixed-use industrial park. Many compounds, especially benzene, have been found to exceed levels set by the state as acceptable for nonresidential property, according to reports compiled by the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection and Evergreen Resources Group, which is handling a cleanup plan for Sunoco and has posted thousands of pages of documents online. Sunoco owned the refinery for decades until 2012, when it was sold to PES.

Smelly oil spill closes popular Maine beach (AP) — A popular Maine beach was closed on Wednesday due to an oil spill that posed an inconvenience, but was not a threat to public health, authorities said.The U.S. Coast Guard, Maine Department of Environmental Protection and officials with the city of South Portland were all involved in the response to the spill. The DEP said the oil spill reached the city's storm water drainage system and discharged into the water at Willard Beach on Tuesday afternoon.The DEP said a responsible party has been identified for the spill, but it did not name them. The agency said no further discharge is anticipated. The length of the cleanup was unknown on Wednesday. The DEP said Willard Beach would remain closed for the rest of the day and reopening would be assessed daily as cleanup work continued. The spill caused petroleum odors in the area. Cleanup efforts included collecting any contaminated seaweed and working with South Portland to collect any remaining oily waste in the storm water drainage system, DEP said.

Willard Beach in South Portland could be closed for days because of oil spill - — Willard Beach, a popular destination for sunbathers and dog-walkers across southern Maine, could remain closed for days because used motor oil that likely originated from a service station was discharged from a storm drain pipe at the beach on Tuesday.Investigators have identified the responsible party and no further discharge from the source is anticipated, according to a statement issued Wednesday by the Maine Department of Environmental Protection. The agency didn’t name the responsible party or say how much oil was spilled.However, a statement from the city Tuesday night said investigators were checking a possible link to an oil product leak also reported Tuesday from an address on Cottage Road, about a half-mile from the beach.And on Wednesday, a crew from Clean Harbors, an environmental services company, was working at the former Hill’s Service Station at 491 Cottage Road, where the acrid odor of used motor oil filled the air and the pavement was covered with petroleum residue and patches of granular white absorbent material.The DEP, U.S. Coast Guard and the city’s Water Resource Protection Division mounted a joint investigation Tuesday evening, after firefighters responded to a report of a sheen on the water at the beach that rims Simonton Cove on Casco Bay.Clean Harbors was contracted to conduct the cleanup, which includes collecting any contaminated seaweed and other materials from the beach, and working with the city to collect any remaining oily waste in the storm water drainage system, the DEP said.The 4-acre, crescent-shaped beach stretches from Southern Maine Community College to Fisherman’s Point. The storm drain outfall pipe juts from the sand at the center of the beach, near the main entrance, bathhouse, snack bar and playground.

DNR warns proposed Texas Gas Transmission pipeline could harm Indiana plants and wildlife The route of a proposed pipeline connecting an Indiana power plant to a natural gas network in Kentucky could have “significant impacts” on endangered plant species and waterways in Posey County, according to the Indiana Department of Natural Resources.The proposed 24-mile Texas Gas Transmission LLC pipeline would connect two proposed natural gas-fired power plants at CenterPoint Energy Inc.’s A.B. Brown Generating Station in Posey County to a network of interstate natural gas pipelines.Texas Gas Transmission wants the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to approve the project without an environmental impact statement. In comments to FERC, DNR said the project could affect animal species protected by state and federal authorities, like endangered mussels in the Ohio River, the Indiana bat and northern long-ear bat, and forest and wetland areas along the river in Posey County.The plan submitted by Texas Gas Transmission indicates the pipeline would cross from Kentucky into Indiana under the Ohio River through a process called horizontal directional drilling.The drilling would mostly occur underground and could avoid impacting mussels and fish directly, but DNR said that unless erosion and control measures are taken at the drilling sites, the project could negatively affect aquatic species in the Ohio River and cause sedimentation.A number of risks threaten the success of horizontal directional drilling projects, including drilling fluid circulation loss, pipeline damage during the pullback of the drill and hole instability.If any of those happen during pipeline construction, or if the pipeline fails later, animal and plant species could be affected.Texas Gas Transmission LLC has had two pipeline failures since 2009, according to reports submitted to the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration.One inactive natural gas pipeline failed in 2009 due to a leak caused by internal corrosion. An underground pipeline ruptured in 2015 due to a combination of corrosion and cracking at the bottom of the pipeline, where it was installed over an area of sandy clay and rocky material. More than 45 feet of pipeline was blown away from its original location despite being buried several feet underground.

Does rural Illinois really need a new gas pipeline? --Pembroke Township, population less than 2,000, is the last historic Black farming community left in Illinois. And at one time, it was the largest such community in the northern United States. Founded in the 1860s by runaway slaves, it soon becamean agricultural hub, producing tons of hemp during World War II and later feeding Chicago, Detroit, and Cleveland during the Great Migration from the South to the North. And now Nicor Gas wants to run a natural gas pipeline to it. Earlier this summer the Democrat-controlled Illinois General Assembly passed HB 3404 — a bill that will help fund the proposed gas line, in part by allowing for a 250-percent increaseto customers’ gas bills statewide. It would cap a years-long push to bring cheaper natural gas heat to an area, an hour’s drive south of Chicago, that now gets its heat from a mix of propane, wood-burning stoves, and electric space heaters. Governor J.B. Pritzker, a Democrat, has until August 29 to sign the bill into law. But many local farmers and environmentalists are pleading with Pritzker to veto the bill, arguing that the pipeline would threaten agricultural land and rare black oak savanna habitat, and that the time has passed for new fossil fuel infrastructure. “The community wants renewable energy,” said Fred Carter, a co-founder of the Black Oaks Center for Sustainable Renewable Living in Pembroke who also grows swiss chard, eggplant, cantaloupes, okra, and other crops on his farm. “This pipeline is a direct assault to the agricultural potential of this community.” Environmental advocates also argue that the pipeline would undermine Pritzker’s commitments to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Pritzker has pledged to slash emissions in line with the 2015 Paris Agreement and has also committed to ending emissions from the gas industry by 2045.

US Upper Midwest gas-fired generation looks to remain strong despite high prices - Gas-fired power demand in the US Upper Midwest might prove more than expected in the months ahead despite high prices, due in part to nuclear retirements, ample storage inventory and stronger-than-average power burn per degree this summer. The Midwest power burn forecast looks poised for substantial upside risk in the coming months as natural gas generation is less responsive to Chicago prices than in years past, burns per degree have risen from the five-year average, and the possibility of nuclear retirements all point to stronger gas burn than forecast. S&P Global Platts Analytics expected power burn to be lower year on year for the shoulder season of September and October. September power burn is forecast to average 1.9 Bcf/d, 558 MMcf/d below September 2020. For October, the year-on-year losses are expected to grow to 845 MMcf/d, bringing power burn to 1.7 Bcf/d.Platts Analytics’ power burn forecast largely utilizes temperatures and prices and assumes normal temperatures when modeling. September and October are shoulder months when temperatures normally cool to 60 degrees Fahrenheit, resulting in less cooling demand in the region and weakening power burn. Prices, meanwhile, are substantially higher year on year.Chicago futures for September are currently trading roughly $2/MMBtu above September 2020 cash prices, at $3.81/MMBtu. October is also at $3.81/MMBtu and $1.72/MMBtu above 2020 cash prices. These stronger prices and shoulder season temperatures should result in lower power burn. However, power burn has been less responsive to prices this year. Typically, higher prices result in higher gas-to-coal switching. While previous years show a clear downward curve in gas’ share as prices rise, this year has been much flatter, showing less influence of prices on gas generation.Also, burns per degree are slightly above normal. While last year’s weak prices uplifted power burns, this year’s stronger-than-normal prices should have weakened burns per degree. Instead, burns per degree have risen compared with the five-year average. At roughly 60 degrees, the normal temperature in September and October, burns per degree are marginally above normal.On top of the already higher burns per degree, Exelon is still planning to retire two nuclear facilities in the Midwest in September. The two facilities provide 4.4 GW of capacity in the Midwest. Their loss could result in as much as 770 MMcf/d of additional demand, should the entirety go to gas generation, though Platts Analytics expects the majority of gains to go to coal generation.While power burn is likely to dip the coming months, the year-on-year losses may not be as severe as normal weather and Chicago futures point to. This, in turn, would likely further help boost prices into the winter.*

Virginia environmental regulators make preliminary decision to issue key water permit for Mountain Valley Pipeline -Virginia state environmental regulators are leaning toward granting a key water permit for the Mountain Valley Pipeline designed to transport natural gas across 11 counties in West Virginia.Virginia regulators have issued a draft water quality certification for the pipeline that, if ultimately approved, would eliminate one of several obstacles standing in the way of pipeline developers proceeding with construction across wetlands and waterbodies throughout the 303-mile pipeline route.The draft permit indicates the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality’s State Water Control Board has determined there is a “reasonable assurance” that the permit would not violate applicable water quality standards or contribute significant impairment of state waters or fish and wildlife resources in the 107 miles of 42-inch-diameter pipeline across six Virginia counties.Saturday marks the beginning of a two-month public comment period on the draft permit that will end Oct. 27. The Department of Environmental Quality is also having two public hearings on the draft permit on Sept. 27 and Sept. 28 at the Pigg River Community Center in Rocky Mount and Kyle Hall at Radford University, respectively.The citizen-comprised State Water Control Board will make the final decision on the draft permit by Dec. 31.Mountain Valley Pipeline, LLC, the joint venture that owns the pipeline, is awaiting a decision on another water permit request under the federal Clean Water Act from the West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection.Mountain Valley is also seeking approval from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, the federal agency that regulates the natural gas industry, to change its construction method across waterbodies and wetlands along the pipeline route from an open-cut dry crossing method as previously approved by the commission to a trenchless approach.

Virginia county fends off natural gas plant, but battles continue -A company planning to bring one of two natural gas-fired power plants to Charles City County, VA, said this summer it is abandoning the projects. It’s a partial victory for residents who have been opposing the C4GT power plants and other new natural gas infrastructure in the rural county for years.But a larger power plant, the Chickahominy Power Station, also fueled by natural gas, is still in the works for the county. Developers of that power plant, which has already garnered key permits from the state,say the county along the James River southeast of Richmond is ideally located between growing Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads, two corners of the state where “electricity demand is expected to increase with the many data centers planned and under construction in the region.”But the county’s 7,000 residents — 46% of whom are Black and 7% Native American — have largely opposed the pair of projects, along with the expansion of a landfill, citing environmental justice concerns. “These power plants and industries are not going to help anyone in our majority-minority rural area,” said Wanda Roberts, co-director of the group Concerned Citizens of Charles City County, or C5. “The character of our rural county is up for grabs right now.” Advocates for clean water have increasingly been fighting new natural gas infrastructure (not just the pipelines, but also compressor stations, which repressurize the gas to keep it moving) in communities they say are already overburdened with environmental impacts. Though the sprawling Atlantic Coast Pipeline — opposed all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court — was canceled last year, the Mountain Valley Pipeline is still under way in Virginia and seeking permits for additional infrastructure.

Gas company explains what caused explosion at Convention Center - - A gas company said Wednesday that a technical issue caused explosion at the Carl C. Morgan Convention Center. A spokesperson for Spire said that “a technical issue created a high-pressure situation and subsequent damage to the center.” Spire said it would “do what’s right to resolve the situation.” Selma Mayor James Perkins Jr. addressed the Selma City Council meeting on Tuesday and said that Spire accepts responsibility for the gas explosion. Selma Interim Fire Chief Gabriel Sharpe said Tuesday that a gas explosion seemed possible. The gas explosion left cracks in the building and dislodged bricks on the south side of the convention center, west side of the convention center facing city hall, roof elevated and came back down. The explosion was felt at city hall. A budget meeting was held at City Hall, where the explosion could be heard. People quickly left City Hall when the explosion occurred. Perkins said architects will check city hall to see if it experienced any other damage from the explosion. Perkins said that people who reserved the convention center will receive a refund. He declared the center is unavailable.

City considers natural gas, electricity agreements - — The Moultrie City Council agreed last week to participate in a program with the Municipal Gas Authority of Georgia that will encourage residents to use natural gas appliances. The city, which buys natural gas from MGAG and sells it to residents and businesses in the city, will not be selling natural gas appliances, city Utilities Director Elvira Gibson said, but it will host a showroom at the city utilities building where an MGAG employee will do so. A handful of other Georgia cities are already participating in the program, according to Eric Groom, an analyst for MGAG who spoke at the Aug. 17 city council meeting. The Natural Gas Connection began four years ago in North Georgia, Groom said, as a way to encourage residential customers to choose natural gas for appropriate energy needs. The proposed showroom will display examples of gas appliances, such as tankless water heaters and fire logs. When the program sells such an appliance to a customer, it can provide a zero-interest loan and bill that loan through the customer’s monthly utility bill, Groom said. The program also includes television commercials to encourage residents to choose natural gas, he said.

Haynesville Shale Resurgence – How Long Will It Last? - In 2021 the Haynesville shale in Texas and Louisiana has taken off. We look into what has changed, whether this surge will continue, and for how long. Between 2005 and 2017, shale gas (including tight gas) became the overwhelmingly dominant source of natural gas in the US (Figure 1). The US eventually produced more natural gas than any other country in the world. In 2016 the US started exporting liquefied natural gas (LNG).New LNG facilities started sending out enormous tankers of LNG to markets in Southeast Asia. Countries there wanted the gas and were willing to pay a premium price. In 2020, the USA became third in LNG exports, after Australia and Qatar (practically tied between number 1 and 2). Because of the success of the shale revolution, in 2009 the price of gas dropped from $7/Mcf (Million cubic feet) to below $3/Mcf and has remained there since 2015. This dampened shale gas production everywhere until 2017 when rising LNG exports had a positive effect (Figure 2). The recent resurgence in Haynesville reflects the price of gas that has approached $4/Mcf.Still, the shale wells in the Haynesville are deeper than other shale plays, up to 14,000 feet, which means drilling and fracking costs are greater.But this is offset by the proximity of the Haynesville to the Gulf Coast LNG terminals – the play lies across the border between Louisiana and Texas. In contrast, the Appalachian plays of Marcellus and Utica shales are far away.According to a US Geological Survey (USGS) report issued in 2017, the Haynesville Shale contains 304 Tcf of natural gas plus 1.9 billion barrels (Bbbl) of natural gas liquids (NGLs) — making it the largest continuous natural gas assessment the USGS has ever conducted. The new technology that was responsible for the shale revolution of Figure 1 is the same everywhere: a long horizontal well (1-2 miles) that is fracked many times along its length (up to 40 separate frac jobs). In recent years, the drilling and fracking elements have been optimized for each play, and there are few opportunities for any further improvements. One such opportunity, using smaller proppant, was detailed earlier this year.Pipeline infrastructure has been expanded. The rig count is up to 57, highest since October 2019. The report also says operators drilled and fracked close to 50 wells in the Haynesville in June and July, the highest rate in seven years.

U.S. natgas futures rise to one-week high on hot forecasts - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose over 2% to a one-week high on Monday on forecasts for hot weather and high air conditioning demand to continue into early September. Traders also noted a near 6% increase in oil futures helped push gas prices higher. Oil recovered from a seven-day losing streak due to a weaker dollar and strength in global equities markets. O/R Front-month gas futures NGc1 rose 9.4 cents, or 2.4%, to settle at $3.945 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since Aug. 16. Last week, gas speculators followed a 9% drop in crude futures and boosted their short positions in natural gas futures and options on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) to the highest since June 2020. That increase in shorts drove speculative open interest in overall NYMEX gas positions to their highest since March 2020. It also caused the speculative net long position on the NYMEX and Intercontinental Exchange to drop by the most in a week since March 2021 to its lowest since June 2021. In the power market, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), grid operator for most of the state, projected hot weather this week would push peak demand over the grid's all-time high of 74,820 MW set in August 2019. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to an average of 92.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in August from 91.6 bcfd in July. That compares with an all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would ease from 94.3 bcfd this week to 93.6 bcfd next week as a seasonal cooling of the weather reduces air conditioning demand and causes power generators to burn less fuel. The forecast for next week, however, was higher than Refinitiv projected on Friday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants slipped from an average of 10.8 bcfd in July to 10.5 bcfd so far in August, due mostly to reductions at the Cameron and Sabine plants in Louisiana. That compares with a record 11.5 bcfd in April. But with European and Asian gas both trading around $15 per mmBtu, compared with just $4 for the U.S. fuel, analysts said buyers around the world would keep purchasing all the LNG the United States can produce.

Henry Hub futures spike following US gas storage build below market expectations - Henry Hub futures spiked Aug. 26 as US storage volumes increased much less than the market anticipated, precipitated by a massive drawdown in the South. The NYMEX Henry Hub September contract surged 27 cents to $4.17/MMBtu in trading following the release of the US Energy Information Administration's weekly storage report. The winter strip, November through March, rose 21 cents to $4.25/MMBtu. Working gas inventories added 29 Bcf to 2.851 Tcf for the week ended Aug. 20, the EIA reported Aug. 26. The injection was less than the 37 Bcf addition expected by an S&P Global Platts' survey of analysts. It also trailed the five-year average of 44 Bcf and last year's 45 Bcf injection in the corresponding week. US storage volumes now stand 563 Bcf, or 16.5%, less than the year-ago level of 3.414 Tcf and 189 Bcf, or 6.2%, less than the five-year average of 3.040 Tcf. The injection was also well below the 42 Bcf implied flow reported by the EIA for the week ended Aug. 13. Most of the change stemmed from the EIA's South Central region, where inventory fell by 14 Bcf, compared with the previous week's 1 Bcf increase. The South Central region's total demand was up fairly sharply, including a 1.1 Bcf/d increase in LNG export demand and along with a 400 MMcf/d increase in Texas power demand due to higher population-weighted temperatures, according to Platts Analytics. South Central spot prices have strengthened this week compared with last, as warmer-than-normal temperatures sweep across the region. After averaging under $3.90/MMBtu for the week ended Aug. 20, Henry Hub spot prices for the week starting Aug. 22 are on pace to average $3.95/MMBtu, pushing over $4/MMBtu for the first time in two weeks on Aug. 26. The warmer-than-normal temperatures have driven a spike in power demand, elevating combined Southeast and Texas power demand to 19.5 Bcf/d on Aug. 25, 1.2 Bcf/d stronger than the prior week's average, according to Platts Analytics. The elevated power burns have strengthened basis pricing at demand hubs, like Houston Ship Channel, to just 1 cent behind Henry Hub. Platts Analytics' supply and demand model currently forecasts a 20 Bcf injection for the week ending Aug. 27, which would measure 33 Bcf less than the five-year average. Fundamentals this week have moved tighter still, as total supplies have remained mostly flat week over week, while downstream demand has increased by nearly 2 Bcf/d. US power burn demand is up 2.2 Bcf/d week over week. These gains were only slightly diminished by a 300 MMcf/d dip in LNG feedgas volumes and a 300 MMcf/d fall in industrial loads.

U.S. natgas soars over 7% to 32-month high on small storage build, hot weather (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures soared over 7% to a 32-month high on Thursday on a much smaller than expected storage build during hot weather last week. Traders also said prices jumped on forecasts for higher liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, concerns about a storm in the Gulf of Mexico and the latest outlook calling for hotter than normal weather through early September. Tropical Depression 9 is expected to strengthen into a hurricane before striking the U.S. Gulf Coast early next week near Louisiana. Analysts noted storms can reduce gas prices and demand by causing power outages and LNG terminals to shut, but they can also boost prices by causing Gulf Coast production to shut. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added just 29 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended Aug. 20. That was much lower than the 40-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 45 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2016-2020) average increase of 44 bcf. Traders said the build was smaller than expected in part because wind power was low in the eastern half of the country and Texas last week, causing generators to burn more gas to meet high air conditioning demand. Last week's injection boosted stockpiles to 2.851 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 6.2% below the five-year average of 3.040 tcf for this time of year. On its second to last day as the front-month, gas futures for September delivery rose 28.7 cents, or 7.4%, to settle at $4.184 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since December 2018. That was the front-month's biggest one-day percentage gain since the February freeze that knocked out power to millions of customers in Texas. The October contract, which will soon be the front-month, was up about 28 cents to $4.20 per mmBtu. In New England, gas prices for this winter soared due to limited pipeline capacity and rising competition for LNG from Europe and Asia where gas prices were near record highs. Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to an average of 92.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in August from 91.6 bcfd in July. That compares with an all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 94.2 bcfd this week to 94.5 bcfd next week mostly as LNG exports rise. Those forecasts were higher than Refinitiv projected on Wednesday. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants slipped from an average of 10.8 bcfd in July to 10.5 bcfd so far in August. Traders, however, noted that LNG feedgas was already increasing as the companies operating the Cameron and Sabine plants in Louisiana and the pipelines that serve them finish maintenance work. That compares with a record 11.5 bcfd in April.

U.S. natgas jump over 4% to 32-month high ahead of hurricane (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped more than 4% on Friday to a fresh 32-month high on forecasts the weather will remain hotter than normal through mid-September and concerns Hurricane Ida will shut Gulf of Mexico production when it hits the Louisiana area as a major storm early next week. Traders also noted that lower than usual amounts of gas in U.S. storage ahead of the coming winter and near record gas prices in Europe and Asia continued to boost U.S. gas futures on expectations U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports will rise to all-time peaks in coming months. EIA/GAS That, of course, depends on whether the hurricane shuts Gulf Coast LNG plants for extended periods of time like last year. Analysts noted storms in the Gulf of Mexico like Ida can reduce gas prices and demand by causing power outages and LNG terminals to shut, but they can also boost prices by knocking Gulf Coast production out of service. About 2% of total U.S. gas comes from the federal offshore Gulf of Mexico, while another 8% comes from on- and offshore Louisiana, according to federal data. On its last day as the front-month, gas futures NGc1 for September delivery rose 18.6 cents, or 4.4%, to settle at $4.370 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since December 2018 for a second day in a row. The October contract NGV21, which will soon be the front-month, was up about 17 cents to $4.39 per mmBtu. For the week, the front-month gained almost 14%, its biggest weekly gain since October 2020. Last week, the contract fell less than 1%.

Blank Space, Part 2 - The Ins and Outs of Natural Gas Storage | RBN Energy --The volume of natural gas in storage and the flow of gas into and out of it are among the most closely watched indicators in the U.S. gas market. That makes sense, given that these numbers provide important weekly insights into the supply-demand balance, gas price trends, the impact of LNG exports, and any number of other market drivers. However, what’s often ignored by those not involved in the day-to-day physical gas market are the mechanics and economics of storage itself. Who uses gas storage, and for what purposes? What are the value drivers for a storage facility? Why are there different types of gas storage contracts? How much does storage cost, and what do storage rates reflect? Today, we explore these and other questions. As we said in Part 1, in the decades leading up to the early 2000s, the U.S. gas market underwent a series of fundamental changes, each spurring the development of new storage capacity. First, starting in the 1910s, ’20s, and ‘30s, a number of depleted gas reservoirs were converted to storage facilities — initially in the Northeast, but then in other regions (yellow dots in Figure 1 map and yellow slice of pie chart to left). In the late 1940s and ’50s, another approach — “aquifer storage” — was introduced as an option for regions (primarily the Midwest) that needed gas storage capacity but lacked a sufficient number of depleted gas fields. Aquifer storage (red squares in map and red slice in pie chart to left) had an advantage over depleted-reservoir storage, namely that gas can typically be injected into and withdrawn from it more quickly. However, a disadvantage of aquifer storage is that it needs to be completely empty at the end of the heating season each year, or it can lose gas. The primary purpose of both types of storage facilities was — and is — to help balance seasonal swings in gas demand.

US to restart oil leasing with offshore auction this year - The Biden administration said on Tuesday it would take steps to restart the federal oil and gas leasing program in the next week and plans to hold a Gulf of Mexico auction as soon as October, court papers showed. The move comes two months after the U.S Interior Department first said it would comply with a June 15 federal judge's order blocking its months-long pause in oil and gas leasing on federal lands and waters. That order was a blow to a key White House effort to address climate change by reining in fossil fuel extraction. U.S. President Joe Biden paused the oil and gas leasing program in January, pending an analysis of its impacts on the environment and value to taxpayers. Interior said in a statement that it is still conducting that review. The filing to a Louisiana federal district court on Tuesday was in response to a motion by the state of Louisiana and 12 other states from earlier this month that sought to compel Interior to restart the leasing program and to show why it should not be held in contempt for failing to comply with the order issued weeks earlier. Interior has "expended significant agency resources, including many hundreds of employee-hours, preparing to hold oil and gas lease sales," the brief said. The agency will take procedural steps by the end of this month to prepare for a sale of oil leases in the Gulf of Mexico. The auction itself is expected in October or November. Regarding onshore leasing, the Interior's Bureau of Land Management will post a list of parcels for potential sale within the next week, followed by a public comment period that will result in sale notices published in December, the court documents said. An oil and gas industry group, the Western Energy Alliance, criticized the administration's plans, saying the sales that were put on hold had already undergone thorough analyzes and were "ready to put on the calendar."

Butterflies Get Aid in House Proposal and Drillers Pay Tab - Endangered butterflies and desert fish would get millions of dollars in federal funding while oil companies would face new fees and a ban on most offshore drilling under a House committee proposal to fulfill key parts of President Joe Biden’s economic agenda. The details were summarized in a document seen by Bloomberg News prepared by the Natural Resources Committee, one of a dozen House panels now writing pieces of a $3.5 trillion budget bill that represents the largest chunk of Biden’s economic plan. The document was circulated to lawmakers before a planned Sept. 2 meeting to vote on the panel’s portion of the measure. It sketches out Natural Resources Committee Democrats' ambitions for spending roughly $31.5 billion onconservation programs, environmental analysis and cleanup of abandoned mines, among other priorities. The proposal, which could be revised before the committee takes up the measure next week, calls for devoting some $550 million to wildlife recovery efforts, including $25 million each to endangered butterflies, freshwater mussels and desert fish."This is the largest investment in the recovery of endangered species in a generation, and I couldn't be more thrilled," said Brett Hartl, government affairs director at the Center for Biological Diversity. "If we're going to tackle the extinction crisis and save these incredible species from the brink, this is exactly the type of bold action that's needed."The oil and gas industry would shoulder the burden of paying for much of the proposed spending. The proposals include new fees for idled oil wells, pipeline owners and the inspection of oil and gas facilities. Royalties also would be increased for some minerals, oil and gas extracted from public land.Spokespeople for the committee and several members, reached by telephone and email after hours, declined to comment on the document. A Democratic member of the committee, who asked not to be identified, confirmed the document's authenticity. Republican staff members said they have heard such a document exists, but it had not been shared with them. Committee Democrats also will seek to spend some $3 billion on a new Civilian Climate Corps, according to the document. The program, which would be modeled after the New Deal-era Civilian Conservation Corps, would put Americans to work building clean energy infrastructure, capping inactive wells and conserving land.

Oil Majors Begin to Require Vaccine for U.S. Gulf Offshore Workers --Now that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has given full and final approval to the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for COVID-19, oil companies Chevron and Hess have announced that they will require their offshore workers in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico to get vaccinated as a condition of employment. Hess cited the "highly infectious nature" of the Delta variant of the disease as a key factor in its decision. In addition, leading oilfield services company Schlumberger told media that oil majors are now requiring that contractor personnel must be both vaccinated and tested before arriving at rig sites. Valero, a leading refiner, has already imposed a blanket vaccine requirement as a hiring condition for new workers at its Louisiana and Texas facilities earlier this month. The South and Southeast are at the center of the United States' COVID-19 caseload. Louisiana, the spiritual home of the American offshore oil industry, has some of the highest case and hospitalization rates in the country; its statewide vaccination rate is just 39 percent, 12 points behind the national average. In late July, the state of Louisiana reported that about 80,000 doses of vaccine went unused and had to be discarded because of low demand. "We just don’t have people that want to take the vaccine,” said Warner Thomas, CEO of one of the state's largest hospital chains, in a news conference July 28. The uptake rate for vaccination is even lower in neighboring Mississippi and Alabama, and only slightly higher in Texas. In addition, in a May survey conducted by researchers at Carnegie Mellon, energy industry and construction workers reported higher rates of vaccine hesitancy than the population at large: 46 percent expressed disinterest in vaccination, compared with 22 percent in the population at large. Compounding the risk of low vaccination rates, offshore oil and gas platforms house their workers in close quarters for extended periods. Congregate settings like platforms, ships, prisons and nursing homes have a limited ability to provide social distancing, requiring extra preventive measures to reduce the risk of transmission,

Oil firms cut U.S. Gulf of Mexico output by 91% ahead of Hurricane Ida - Oil firms on Saturday cut nearly 91% of U.S. Gulf of Mexico crude oil production, roughly 1.65 million barrels, as Hurricane Ida makes its way toward major U.S. offshore oilfields, according to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement. The regulator also estimated that roughly 84.87% of natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico has been shut in. Ida is forecast to reach a Category 4 hurricane before making landfall west of New Orleans. Louisiana residents on Saturday rushed to prepare for the storm, which could bring winds as high as 140 mph (225 kph) when it makes landfall. Oil and gas companies evacuated 279 production platforms, representing 49.82% of the 560 manned platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, and shut in almost 91% of their typical offshore production as the storm approached, according to the offshore regulator. The companies also moved 11 drill vessels off location and out of the storm's path on Saturday. The Gulf of Mexico federal offshore oil production accounts for 17% of the country's crude oil production and 5% of its federal offshore dry gas production, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates in Houston, said Saturday that if the New Orleans refineries take a direct hit from a Category 4 storm, gas prices would likely rise by about 10 cents a gallon in the Southeastern and Mid-Atlantic markets.

Biden EPA loosens Trump rule limiting states' ability to reject pipelines -The Environmental Protection Agency on Friday issued a joint memo with the U.S. Department of the Army allowing states and tribes to extend the finalization process for water permits after a Trump-era rule imposed a one-year window.The memo directs the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to wait the maximum amount of time to finalize 41 Nationwide Permits proposed under the act in September. The Trump-era rule provided a window of only a year to make a final decision under the Clean Water Act for oil and gas project permitting. While the CWA allows states and tribes to weigh in on projects that run through waterways, the 2020 rule reduced the approvals required at the state and tribal level. The memo outlines scenarios under which state or tribal governments may take longer than a year to approve or deny projects, such as cases where “they identify factors and circumstances that warrant extending the reasonable period of time.” “While EPA moves expeditiously to revise the 2020 rule, it is essential that the agencies address pressing implementation challenges that have been raised by our co-regulators,” Assistant Administrator for EPA’s Office of Water Radhika Fox said in a statement. “Today’s action provides guidance to maximize flexibilities and support the authority of states and Tribes to protect their waters.” The Biden EPA has been critical of the Trump-era rule in the past, and EPA Administrator Michael Regan has said that as head of the agency he would take action to roll back regulations he felt undermined local protective authority. Five Democratic governors had also previously asked the Biden administration to intervene, asking the federal government to delay finalization in a May letter. “[P]recipitous action by the Corps to finalize permits based on the previous administration’s flawed Section 401 rule and nationwide permitting will greatly undermine the chances of a successful resolution,” wrote the governors of Washington, Oregon, Connecticut, California and New Mexico. “Even states that are not covered by nationwide permits share these concerns and fear that this approach may be extended to programmatic general permits in those Army Corps regions.”

EIA: US LNG exports to exceed pipeline exports - In the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) August 2021 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the company forecasts that US natural gas exports will exceed natural gas imports by an average of 11.0 billion ft³/d in 2021, or almost 50% more than the 2020 average of 7.5 billion ft³/d. Increases in LNG exports and in pipeline exports to Mexico are driving this growth in US natural gas exports. For the first time since US LNG exports from the Lower 48 states began in 2016, annual LNG exports are expected to outpace pipeline exports – by an estimated 0.6 billion ft³/d – this year.The EIA forecasts that total US natural gas exports will continue to grow throughout 2021 and 2022, exceeding the record of 14.4 billion ft³/d set in 2020. The company expects US exports of natural gas by pipeline and as LNG combined to average 18.3 billion ft³/d in 2021 and 19.3 billion ft³/d in 2022. LNG exports exceeded pipeline exports for the first time on a monthly basis in November 2020, and the EIA expects them to average 9.5 billion ft³/d and exceed natural gas imports by pipeline (8.9 billion ft³/d) in 2021.In 2020, natural gas exports accounted for 23% of total US energy exports in energy equivalent terms. US LNG exports in particular have grown as the US has added LNG export capacity and expanded its LNG export destinations.The EIA expects US imports of natural gas by pipeline and as LNG, combined, to increase by 6% compared with 2020, averaging 7.4 billion ft³/d in 2021, before declining to 6.9 billion ft³/d in 2022. Almost all US natural gas imports enter the US from Canada into midwestern and western demand markets. US pipeline imports previously had been declining annually since 2008. However, the EIA expects pipeline imports of natural gas to increase in 2021 because of relatively flat US dry natural gas production and slightly higher US natural gas consumption.Natural gas exports by pipeline – almost all of which are sent to Mexico – began exceeding gross pipeline imports on an annual basis in 2019. In 2020, US pipeline exports exceeded imports by 1.1 billion ft³/d, and the EIA expects this difference to increase to 1.7 billion ft³/d in 2021 and 2.5 billion ft³/d 2022.

Why LNG Exports From The US Are Off To The Moon – Forbes -- Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) comes from natural gas by lowering its temperature to minus -260F, when it changes from gas to a clear, colorless, non-toxic liquid. This gives it portability – it can be shipped by truck or sea-going tanker. The Marcellus and Utica shales in the Appalachian region in the northeast US provide about 30 Billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) which is about a third of the nation’s total natural gas (90 Bcfd). The next largest gas-only play is the Haynesville Shale in Louisiana and East Texas. The Haynesville Shale is the largest continuous natural gas assessment ever made in the USA. The advantage here was proximity to LNG terminals on the Gulf Coast that could ship the product overseas. The trend will continue according to EIA, although the trade war between US and China has cooled things a bit. But the market potential for China using LNG to replace coal-fired boilers and power plants is potentially huge. Bar chart of LNG exports rising from 2016 to 2021. Cheniere Energy is a big LNG exporter and three years ago signed on to export to China 1.2 million tons of LNG per year for 20 years (from 2023 to 2043.) But the deal fell through due to the trade war between US and China. In mid-2020 a separate deal was signed with a Chinese company called Foran Energy Group, and cargoes of LNG have resumed cautiously. The export of LNG has increased from nothing to 10 Bcfd in just 5 years (Figure 1). It’s an amazing turnaround from natural gas production that was declining in the US as recently as 2005. In 2018, US exports of natural gas exceeded imports for the first time since 1957, when Russia launched Sputnik into orbit. Four new LNG terminals since 2018 (Figure 1) are sending out enormous tankers of LNG to markets in Southeast Asia. In the US, LNG spot market prices have been lower than prices for overseas markets this year. This price difference motivated record volumes of US LNG exports. Early in 2021, spot prices spiked to $20 per Million Btu in the Japan/South Korea market, but quickly fell back to $6. Countries over there want the gas and are willing to pay a premium price. Then began a gradual doubling of prices to $12 in June 2021. Spot prices in the European market have tracked the Japan/South Korea market this year because they need to refill storage supplies. The runup in US exports later in 2020 was due to recovery from the pandemic, as well as unplanned outages from competitors such as Australia. The US is now producing at near total capacity of 11 Bcfd. There is big money to be made by exporting LNG as the price differential between LNG within the US and overseas is large. Second, the market is getting stronger with China wanting LNG for local burners and boilers to reduce the high levels of pollutants that come from burning so much coal. The bulk (83%) of LNG exports go to two regions of the world. In 2021, 46% of LNG goes to Asia, followed by Europe with 37%. EIA expects LNG exports to remain near 10 Bcfd for the rest of 2021. China views natural gas as a halfway house in the transition to renewables, which they are committed to. While China is 70% fossil energies now, they plan to be 90% renewable energies by 2060.

Louisiana tank farm looks to spend $100 million to expand for renewable fuels - International-Matex Tank Terminals plans to invest more than $100 million to expand its Geismar marine terminal so it can handle renewable fuel products. IMTT expects to build six storage tanks, two pipelines and more dock space at the Ascension Parish for renewable diesel, biodiesel and feedstocks to make those products. The pipeline would connect to nearly one-third of the renewable diesel capacity nationwide. The expansion will double storage capacity at the marine terminal and create eight new jobs. The work is scheduled to be completed in 2023. New Orleans-based IMTT is gearing up to meet demand from Renewable Energy Group Inc. which runs a Geismar biorefinery expected to expand to 340 million gallons of renewable diesel by 2023. IMTT has 17 terminals across the country and two in Canada which store bulk liquid products for customers. The business handles a variety of materials from refined petroleum, chemicals and vegetable oil products. In Louisiana, the company also has terminals in Gretna and St. Rose.

Oil well ruptures south of Lake Charles (see overhead video)- A well at the southern end of Nelson Road ruptured Tuesday afternoon, spewing a crude oil mixture into the air. Several viewers in south Lake Charles reported hearing a loud boom. Louisiana State Police Emergency Services is responding. The well is in a sparsely populated area south of Lincoln Road. Three residences near the well were evacuated until state police can further evaluate the scene, according to Derek Senegal, State Police Troop D spokesman. No fire has been reported, according to firefighters at the scene. (see overhead video) KPLC’s crew at the scene cannot get close enough to shoot video but can smell the crude oil mixture in the air and hear it gushing. Traffic is blocked at Lincoln and Nelson.

Phillips 66 puts Alliance, Louisiana refinery up for sale (Reuters) - The fourth largest U.S. refiner Phillips 66 Tuesday said it has put the smallerof its two Louisianarefineries up for sale amid continued losses and an uncertain future for motor fuels. The company is holding talks with a potential buyer on the sale of its 255,600 barrel-per-day (bpd) Alliance refinery in Bell Chasse, Louisiana, according to two people familiar with the matter. The identity of the potential buyer could not immediately be learned. U.S. refiners have closed or sold oil processing plants as the pandemic slashed demand for gasoline and jet fuel and generated losses for the industry. Top auto makers are accelerating their shift to electric vehicles, signaling tougher times ahead. "The U.S. refining business in the future is going to be smaller, not bigger," Chief Executive Officer Gregory Garland said earlier this month while laying out plans to expand its supply of components for electric car batteries and hydrogen and lower-carbon fuels. Garland predicted demand for gasoline in the U.S. and Europe was at or near its peak. The Houston-based refiner posted a second quarter profit on strong chemical demand, but work-from-home policies and sagging fuel margins left its refining business in the red. Falling demand amid the pandemic has forced the closure of five U.S. refineries and cut oil processing capacity by 4.5% to 18.13 million barrels per day (bpd), according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The 50-year-old Alliance refinery is located 20 miles (32 km) south of New Orleans and along the Mississippi River, where tankers dock to deliver crude oil. "We expect the marketing process to continue over the next several months," "We will make an announcement at the appropriate time if and when an agreement has been reached with a buyer." The market for refineries has become active this year with Royal Dutch Shell RDSa.L agreeing to sell its controlling interest in a Texas refinery to Petroleos Mexicanos and a Washington state refinery to HollyFrontier. HollyFrontier agreed to pay $350 million for Shell's 145,000-bpd Anacortes, Washington refinery plant and an additional amount for on-hand inventory when the sale closes later this year. HollyFrontier estimated the inventory will cost between $150 million and $180 million. The price paid for the Anacortes refinery is consistent with what was being paid prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, which hit motor fuel demand hard in 2020. That would put the value of a refinery at about $2,400 a barrel.

BKV Looking to Expand Further after $430M Texas Natural Gas Power Plant Deal - Natural gas exploration & production (E&P) company Banpu Kalnin Ventures Corp. (BKV) made a splash earlier this month with an announced deal to acquire a natural gas power plant in Temple, TX, for $430 million. With independent E&Ps largely focused on the upstream, value chain integration has chiefly been the territory of majors and supermajors. But BKV CEO Chris Kalnin said the power plant deal represents the start of a new era for onshore E&P companies, one that will see them wade more and more into the value chain as they search for stability amid the ups and downs of the upstream cycle.“I think this is the tip of the spear,” Kalnin told NGI. “I think you’re going to see, over the next 10 years, E&P companies that were traditionally onshore shale independents start to push into the value chain. It’s not just going to be the super majors that are doing this. And we think there are enough bespoke, smaller, niche-type opportunities that there’s a space for the guys that are below the majors to play in.”Denver-based BKV, which has assets in the Barnett Shale of North Texas and the Marcellus Shale of Pennsylvania, is a subsidiary of Thai energy company Banpu PCL. It plans to acquire the 758 MW Temple 1 power plant from Temple Generation Intermediate Holdings II LLC in a deal set to close by the end of the year.Kalnin said the plant will be fed by production from the company’s Barnett acreage, which it purchased from Devon Energy Corp. in 2020. The acreage produces about 500 MMcf/d, and Kalnin expects the new plant will use about 75-100 MMcf/d. The remaining production would be marketed to “various pools,” which is how BKV currently sells its gas, he said.BKV is bullish on the Texas power market, which it expects to grow in the coming years as companies such as Tesla and HP relocate to the Lone Star State. Kalnin also sees the opportunity to generate significant savings by integrating production and end use.“A lot of the synergy can come from just the way we set up contracts with the power plant,” he said. The purchase would also allow BKV to capitalize on power markets by exposing it to a “stable” forward curve, he added.

Is the U.S. shale bankruptcy rout over? - Back in April, we reported that U.S. oil and gas companies were still filing for bankruptcy at record levels right in the midst of an oil price recovery. Smaller producers were the main victims as a total of eight North American oil and gas producers with an aggregate debt of $1.8B filed for bankruptcy protection in Q1 2021. But it now appears that the massive wave of bankruptcies has finally abated. According to Energy and restructuring law firm Haynes and Boone, just four U.S. exploration and production (E&P) companies filed for Chapter 11 during the second quarter, bringing the tally for H1 2021 to 12, the lowest number in six years. More importantly, there were no producers with billion-dollar bankruptcies during the quarter, the first time this has happened in 12 consecutive quarters. The aggregate debt tab of $1.8B by the four E&Ps that filed for protection ranks as the lowest amount since the first six months of 2015, when it clocked in at $3.6 billion. The report for oil field services (OFS) was more mixed, with the number of filings low but aggregate debt high. Haynes and Boone says eight OFS companies filed for Chapter 11 in Q2 2021 to bring H1 2021 numbers to 13 companies. The aggregate debt for the 13 companies came in at over $5.9 billion, the fourth-highest H1 total since 2015, with offshore driller Seadrill Ltd (OTCQX:SDRL) accounting for the lion’s share. Midstream oil and gas companies are usually the least bankruptcy prone, with just six filing for protection in a typical year thanks to many being subsidiaries of deep-pocketed integrated E&Ps. This trend continued during the second quarter with zero midstreamers filing for bankruptcy between April and June, thus bringing H1 2021 total to three. Aggregate debt for the three midstream companies that filed for protection was $6.7 million, the lowest H1 total since 2018 when it was $62 million.

 US oil, gas rig count jumps despite uncertainty over lower crude prices | S&P Global Platts --The US oil and gas rig count surged by seven to 624 on the week, energy analytics and software company Enverus said Aug. 19, amid uncertainty over crude prices that have tumbled from the plus-$70/b perch that had given producers a shot of much-needed confidence over the last few months.Analysts who routinely spoke with upstream operators after the recent round of second-quarter earnings calls appeared to sound a hint of worry."Economic recoveries have slowed and mobility and oil demand indicators have fallen," Standard Chartered Bank analyst Paul Horsnell said in an Aug. 17 investor note. "Our balances now show a smaller supply deficit in June and July than previously calculated. We now expect small surpluses in August and September followed by small deficits in October and November.""Our data cautions against the consensus view that the tightness once forecast for Q3 has merely been delayed," Horsnell said. "In our view Q4 oil market balances are not tight, and the 2022 balance is now oversupplied to an extent that will likely cause OPEC+ to pause its schedule of monthly supply increases early in the new year."In the past couple of weeks, oil prices have dropped amid an unexpected build in US gasoline stocks and as the coronavirus delta variant continued to stymie demand.According to S&P Global Platts, both oil and gas prices dropped nominally for the week ended Aug. 18.NYMEX WTI averaged $67.37/b, down 90 cents, while WTI Midland averaged $67.54/b, down 84 cents. Natural gas decreases were less steep, with Henry Hub prices averaging $3.92/MMBtu, down 21 cents and Dominion South $3.55/MMBtu, down 17 cents. Despite the price signals, the US rig count is at its highest level since early April 2020, as is the oil rig count with 479, up five on the week. Also, the natural gas-directed rig count was up two to 145; gas rigs are now the highest they've been since late February 2020. Even so, individual basin activity was somewhat sluggish in the past week. The largest single shift came from the gas-prone Haynesville Shale in East Texas/Northwest Louisiana, which lost three rigs on the week to 54, while the Bakken Shale of North Dakota/Montana and the DJ Basin of Colorado each lost one rig. The downticks brought those basins' totals to 24 for the Bakken and 14 for the DJ.However, the Permian Basin of West Texas/New Mexico and the Eagle Ford Shale of South Texas each added two rigs, bringing their respective totals to 259 and 43, while the Marcellus Shale mostly in Pennsylvania was up by one rig to 32.The SCOOP-STACK play of Oklahoma and the Utica Shale of Ohio remained unchanged on the week at 30 and 13 rigs respectively.

US oil, gas rig count falls 3 to 621; Permian only major basin with gains: Enverus | S&P Global Platts The US oil and gas rig count fell three to 621 on the week, energy analytics and software company Enverus said Aug. 26, with the Permian up four as the only major basin to post a weekly gain. The Permian's count reached 263 for the week ended Aug. 25, the highest level since 262 in the week ended April 22, 2020. The rig count in the Permian, the largest producing region in the US with 4.65 million b/d of oil and 12.5 Bcf/d of natural gas, had been stuck the 250s range since early June 2021. Rig counts in other basins either stayed the same or lost rigs week on week. Shedding two rigs apiece were the Haynesville Shale of East Texas/Northwest Louisiana (52 rigs), the Eagle Ford Shale of South Texas (41 rigs), and the SCOOP-STACK of Oklahoma (28 rigs). The DJ Basin of Colorado slipped by one rig, leaving 13. The rig count in the Marcellus Shale largely in Pennsylvania (32 rigs), the Bakken Shale of North Dakota/Montana (24 rigs) and the Utica Shale mostly in Ohio (13 rigs) remained the same week on week. It was the fourth straight week the Utica rig count remained at the same level. Rig counts in the Haynesville, a natural gas-prone play, generally had been ticking up all this year in step with gas prices. That area's rig count cracked 50 in late April 2021, higher than it had been even at the start of 2020, and reached a high of 57 for the week ending Aug. 11. But since then the play's rigs have slipped by five after gas prices ticked down in mid-August. But gas prices were up slightly on week, according to S&P Global Platts. Henry Hub average prices for the week ending Aug. 25 were up 1 cent to $3.93/MMBtu, while Dominion South prices averaged $3.62/MMBtu, up 7 cents. Crude prices, however, continued to fall after hitting recent mid-$70s/b peaks in July. WTI averaged $65.58/b, down $1.79; WTI Midland averaged $65.98/b, down $1.56; and the Bakken Composite averaged $64.78/b, a drop of $1.88.

Residential proximity to oil and gas drilling linked to lower birthweights in newborns - Science Daily -A new study from Oregon State University found that infants born within 3 kilometers of oil and natural gas drilling facilities in Texas had slightly lower birthweights than those born before drilling began in their vicinity. The study, published today in the journal Environmental Health Perspectives, found that the type of drilling or resource being extracted did not change the result. "Most studies to date focus exclusively on unconventional natural gas drilling, or fracking. That particular process is a small subset of the oil and natural gas industry. We find it doesn't matter -- where people are extracting oil and gas resources, we're still seeing an impact on infant health," said study author Mary Willis, a postdoctoral researcher in OSU's College of Public Health and Human Sciences. "A lot of policy is exclusively focusing on fracking, but our study shows that's a really limited view of how this industry may impact local populations." Developing fetuses are highly sensitive to environmental pollution and contaminants, so to measure potential impact, this study examined birthweight and location data for 2,598,025 mother-infant pairs in Texas between 1996 and 2009 in which the mother was pregnant while living within 10 kilometers of a current or future oil or gas drilling site. Prior research estimates that 4.5 million Texans live within 1.6 kilometers (one mile) of at least one oil or gas drilling site. However, little work to date has focused on the population health impacts of living near an oil or gas drilling site in Texas, the state that produces the most oil and gas in the U.S. The potential exposures related to drilling are numerous: air pollution from drilling activities, flaring and increased traffic going to and from the drilling site; water contamination from hydraulic fracturing chemicals; noise pollution from industrial activity and increased traffic; and light pollution from new drilling facilities. After accounting for other potential factors influencing birthweight, Willis and the research team found that living within 3 kilometers of an active drilling site was associated with a birthweight 7 to 9 grams lower than the birthweight of babies born before drilling began.

ANALYSIS: Pipeline repairs, maintenance work to keep pressure on Permian Basin gas prices - Natural gas basis prices at the West Texas Waha Hub could undergo sustained pressure through September as pipeline repairs and maintenance work in Arizona and Southern California continue to push back on westbound gas transmissions from the Permian Basin. On Aug. 15, El Paso Natural Gas declared a force majeure on its Line 2000 near Coolidge, Arizona, limiting westbound flows on the pipe by nearly 580 MMcf/d. Prior to that, SoCal Gas began its own separate maintenance in the Topock sub-zone of Southern California, also limiting receipts from El Paso. Combined, the two maintenance projects have limited westbound transmissions from the Permian Basin. As more West Texas production is diverted away from the West Coast, Permian producers have begun shipping more gas northbound toward Oklahoma. The increased exposure to lower-priced markets in the Midcontinent has weighed on basis prices at Waha. Since Aug. 15, the cash market at Waha has dipped to an average 32-cent discount to the benchmark Henry Hub, down from an average 24-cent discount in the 30 days prior, S&P Global Platts data showed. The price pressure at Waha has come in spite of rising temperatures in late August and strong gas-fired power in Texas. Over the past 12 days, westbound gas transmissions from the Permian have dropped about 400 MMcf/d from the 30-day period prior to the maintenance, Platts data showed. Limited access to West Coast gas markets has pushed more Permian Basin production northbound on Northern Natural Gas, Natural Gas Pipeline Co. of America, and El Paso's northbound mainline. Since Aug. 15, northbound flows from West Texas have jumped about 240 MMcf/d. Modeled data suggests that the remaining 160 MMcf/d now being diverted away from the West Coast is likely being shipped eastbound on intrastate lines – potentially Gulf Coast Express, Permian Highway Pipeline or Whistler Pipeline. Regardless, reduced exposure to higher-priced West Coast markets has weighed on Waha's cash basis.

New Mexico Drilling Permits Skyrocketed Under Trump, State's Climate Future at Risk -Over the past four years, oil and gas producers have applied for more than 10,000 permits to drill for oil and gas on federal land in New Mexico. Recent data provided to Capital & Main by the U.S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM) shows that Applications for Permit to Drill (APDs) slowly rose quarter by quarter from 2017 through the start of 2020, then more than doubled in the last half of the year. And just a few companies are behind the jump. “We’ve already locked in decades of warming and catastrophic climate change,” says Jesse Prentice-Dunn, policy director at the Center for Western Priorities. “And when these permits are drilled, we’re locking in decades more of it.”He calls the number of permits “pretty much an all-time high.”“Everyone I talk to can’t remember a statistic that large,” he says.If the BLM approves all those permits, and companies use them within their four-year maximum time limits, it would increase the total number of active oil and gas wells in the state by roughly 20% in that time frame — and that is not counting any new wells on private, tribal or state lands. People who track the industry say that while these companies may not use all of these stockpiled permits, it’s also entirely possible they will. And if all of these permits are approved and used, the resulting wells would pose a major increase in fossil fuel production and carbon emissions at a time when climate science clearly shows that any new drilling and production should instead be winding down. Last Monday the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its Sixth Assessment Report, which states, “This Report reaffirms with high confidence the … finding that there is a near-linear relationship between cumulative (human-caused) CO2 emissions and the global warming they cause.” Trey Cowan, an oil and gas analyst with the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, says the dramatic increase in permits is “basically piling on ahead of the worry that they won’t be able to get them anymore” in light of possible future climate and environmental restrictions. And they piled on in the closing months of the extraction-friendly Trump administration.

Oil producers push Democrats to preserve key drilling deduction - Oil producers are ramping up their lobbying efforts to ensure that Democrats don’t repeal a lucrative tax deduction in the $3.5 billion reconciliation bill. The U.S. tax code allows companies to recover the cost of drilling for oil and gas and preparing oil wells for production, a provision that helps boost U.S. oil production but has drawn criticism from environmental groups and Democratic lawmakers. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), who wields significant influence over tax changes in the reconciliation package, is considering removing the intangible drilling costs deduction in the final bill, according to a committee spokesperson. Wyden previously proposed repealing the deduction in his bill to overhaul energy tax incentives to boost clean energy development. President Biden also proposed eliminating the tax provision in his budget plan and the American Jobs Plan. That’s alarmed oil and gas lobbyists, who are rounding up support from moderate Democrats from fracking-heavy states such as Texas, Pennsylvania and Ohio to ensure the deduction survives. “Democrats, particularly those with oil and gas operations in their districts, understand the importance of this industry, that it provides high-paying jobs and the benefits that come with domestic production,” said Anne Bradbury, president of the American Exploration and Production Council (AXPC), which represents independent oil and gas producers. The AXPC said that removing the deduction would reduce the number of wells drilled by 25 percent. That would raise gas prices and increase U.S. dependence on oil from Russia and the Middle East, the lobbying group stressed in meetings with lawmakers. Only a handful of defections among House Democrats — or one defection in the 50-50 Senate — could doom the party-line reconciliation package, which will not receive Republican support.

Oklahoma commission orders oil and gas well to close after earthquakes — The strongest in a swarm of earthquakes that have been shaking eastern Oklahoma this month caught the attention of numerous residents in Quinton on Tuesday.Among those surprised by the shaking was Nicole Sustaire, who owns Grandpa's Pizza/Hatch Chile Grill in town.. "It scared me. I was just standing there cooking, and I felt the shaking and looked up and my tiles were shaking on the ceiling." The unusual activity, which scientists have linked in other locations to injected saltwater produced as part of the recovery of oil and gas, prompted the Oklahoma Corporation Commission’s induced seismicity department to direct the owner of a nearby well to suspend operations on Aug. 16.

Recommendations target US oil, gas leasing across the West (AP) — An Indigenous leader from New Mexico and former U.S. Interior Secretary Bruce Babbitt called on the federal government Tuesday to overhaul its oil and gas leasing program to ensure the protection of cultural resources, saying for far too long tribal expertise has been ignored to the detriment of sacred landscapes. Acoma Pueblo Gov. Brian Vallo and Babbitt highlighted recommendations outlined in a new report that looks at the government's leasing policies and how they have been implemented across the West over several decades. It seeks ways to better protect areas including Utah's Bears Ears National Monument and Chaco Culture National Historical Park in New Mexico. The recommendations are centered on how land managers can incorporate tribal expertise into decision-making to better understand what resources could be at risk before permitting and development begins. They also call for the Bureau of Land Management to take a lead role in determining which areas can be developed rather than industry nominated parcels for drilling. Vallo and others expressed optimism Tuesday that an ongoing review of federal leasing policies by President Joe Biden's administration will come to some of the same conclusions and that changes could be on the horizon. The Democratic administration recently resumed leasing after a federal judge blocked its suspension of new oil and gas leases on federal land. More than a dozen states had argued that the administration bypassed comment periods and other bureaucratic steps required before such delays can be undertaken and the moratorium would cost the states money and jobs. The Biden administration is appealing the ruling and has emphasized that the pause was needed to begin addressing worries about climate change. The battle over drilling in the West has spanned multiple presidential administrations, with federal officials long reluctant to overhaul what has been a significant sector of the U.S. economy. Paul Reed, an archaeologist and Chaco scholar who prepared the report, said the current approach prioritizes development over preservation and that the federal government has failed to consult with tribes. Vallo echoed those concerns. Even though tribal consultation occurs, he said federal policies and processes are not necessarily designed to incorporate the recommendations of Indigenous communities. “Until we have some equity here and until we see that our voice and our recommendations and our knowledge is considered in decision-making, we will not have achieved the government-to-government or nation-to-nation relationship that we should all be working towards,”

 Appeals court upholds Superior natural gas plant approval - – State regulators correctly found a proposed $700 million natural gas plant in Superior, Wis., is necessary and "serves the public interest better than a renewable-resource alternative," the Minnesota Court of Appeals ruled Monday. Duluth-based Minnesota Power won approval in 2018 from the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission to supply power from the plant, but environmental groups have challenged that decision and said Monday they will "continue to push to block the development of the plant." The Nemadji Trail Energy Center (NTEC) would generate at least 525 megawatts of power and is a joint venture between Minnesota Power and Wisconsin's Dairyland Power Cooperative; the utilities hope to have the plant online by the middle of the decade. In April the Minnesota Supreme Court found that further environmental review is not needed on the plant but instructed the appeals court to decide whether the commission's decision to approve the utility's stake in the project "was supported by substantial evidence." The appeals court concluded in Monday's ruling that "substantial evidence supports the commission's determination that NTEC best serves the public interest" and provides "a more reliable and lower cost (including environmental costs) source of energy than the equivalent renewable resources." Minnesota Power, which is shutting or converting its last remaining coal plants by 2035 and receives half of its energy from renewable sources currently, said the plant emits less carbon than coal and is needed to replace coal and keep the lights on when the sun isn't shining and the wind isn't blowing. Without the plant, the utility would likely need to buy power from the market and drive up costs for customers in order to maintain reliability in the grid, the ruling said. Environmental groups and other opponents say no new fossil fuel plants should be built in the face of climate change, and the plant could drive up electric rates. "This disappointing ruling doesn't change the facts: Our Twin Ports communities simply cannot afford to burn more fossil fuels in the midst of the ongoing climate crisis," said Jenna Yeakle, Duluth organizing representative with the Sierra Club. "Rather than move us towards the clean energy future that Minnesotans want and deserve, this ruling takes a huge step backwards."

Minnesota asks federal court to block Line 3 tribal lawsuit -The state of Minnesota has gone to federal court to block a lawsuit over Enbridge Energy's Line 3 oil pipeline project from proceeding in tribal court.The novel case names Manoomin — the Ojibwe word for wild rice — as the lead plaintiff. Wild rice is sacred in Ojibwe culture and a traditional source of food. The lawsuit, which was filed two weeks ago in the White Earth Band's tribal court, is the first “rights of nature” enforcement case brought in a U.S. tribal court and the second such case to be filed in any U.S. court. The first was a Florida waterways case filed in April, according to the Center for Democratic and Environmental Rights.The Minnesota Department of Natural Resources filed for an injunction in U.S. District Court on Thursday to quash the wild rice lawsuit, the Star Tribune reported Friday. The state agency said the tribal court doesn't have jurisdiction to hear the case because the DNR and its employees named in the lawsuit are not members of the White Earth Band, and it argues that the tribe lacks jurisdiction over non-members for actions occurring off the reservation.The lawsuit, filed by the tribe, advances a legal theory that nature itself has the right to exist and flourish. The plaintiffs also include several White Earth tribal members and people who have protested along the Line 3 construction route across northern Minnesota. More than 700 people have been arrested in the protests.Project opponents have argued that Line 3 would risk oil spills into waters where wild rice grows, and aggravate climate change. The tribal lawsuit, among other things, accuses the DNR of failing to protect the state’s water by allowing Enbridge to pump up to 5 billion gallons of groundwater from construction trenches despite the current drought. The agency says allowing the pumping won't significantly impact nearby wetlands or surface waters.The tribal court ruled Wednesday that the lawsuit can proceed. The next hearing is scheduled for Aug. 25.Construction on the Minnesota segment is nearly 90 percent complete, Juli Kellner, a spokesperson for Calgary, Alberta-based Enbridge, said Friday. Line 3 carries crude oil from Alberta to Enbridge’s terminal in Superior, Wisc. The sections in Canada, North Dakota and Wisconsin are complete. Enbridge said the project is needed because the current Line 3, which was built in the 1960s, is deteriorating and can run at only half its original capacity.

Minnesota Supreme Court denies appeal aimed at stopping Line 3 construction - -The Minnesota Supreme Court will not review a lower court's decision to affirm state utility regulators' approval of Enbridge's controversial new oil pipeline across northern Minnesota — a blow to opponents of Line 3. The high court on Wednesday rejected a petition by pipeline opponents that sought to overturn a June decision by the Minnesota Court of Appeals. The appellate court — by a 2-1 vote — upheld the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission's (PUC) 2020 final approval of the 340-mile oil pipeline that will replace Enbridge's current Line 3, which is corroding and can operate at only 51 % capacity. The $3 billion-plus new pipeline, which will transport oil from Canada, is more than 90% built. Calgary, Alberta-based Enbridge plans to begin shipping crude on it during the fourth quarter. "The rights of a Canadian corporation continue to prevail over the laws of nature and the human rights of Anishinaabe people," Winona LaDuke, head of the Indigenous environmental group Honor the Earth, said after the high court's decision. "It's a sad day for Minnesota." Enbridge said it's "pleased with the decision from the Minnesota Supreme Court," and that the project has been "reaffirmed multiple times by the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission and this June by the Minnesota Court of Appeals." In July, Honor the Earth and other environmental and climate groups, along with the White Earth and Red Lake bands of Ojibwe, petitioned the Supreme Court to hear the case. The state Supreme Court usually hears fewer than 15% of the petitions it receives. The environmental groups, tribes and the Minnesota Department of Commerce had all appealed the PUC's decision to approve the pipeline. They made several legal arguments, but the core complaint focused on the adequacy of Enbridge's long-term oil demand forecast, which the PUC accepted when it approved the new Line 3. The Department of Commerce did not join in the petition to the Supreme Court. Enbridge says the new Line 3, built partly along a new route, will be safer and restore the full flow of oil. Pipeline opponents say it will expose new regions of lakes, rivers and wild rice waters to oil-spill degradation and will exacerbate climate change.

Water protectors opposing Enbridge pipeline criticize State Capitol fence, police presence ahead of large Wednesday rally --Organizers of a series of rallies this week against the Enbridge Line 3 pipeline project are decrying elevated security measures underway at the State Capitol, calling it a militarized response to peaceful demonstrations. State officials last weekend reinstalled a fence perimeter around the Capitol and visibly expanded the presence of state troopers at levels not seen there since the immediate aftermath of January's deadly U.S. Capitol siege. In calling for the fence's return and ramping up the police presence, Department of Public Safety officials cited the likelihood that thousands of people planned to gather at the Capitol complex this week. Organizers for the Treaties Not Tar Sands demonstrations at the Capitol have planned a series of events that started Monday and will be highlighted by a Wednesday rally calling on Gov. Tim Walz and President Joe Biden to stop the Enbridge Line 3 pipeline from moving tar sands oil from Canada through Minnesota to Superior, Wis. The organizers said that water protectors — activists who oppose projects and policies that they believe harm water systems — also planned to "hold space and camp out on the Capitol lawn" on the evening after the rally. On Tuesday, the group described the fence and police presence as an "excessive and harsh response to the ceremony and art unfolding on the lawn." "We're here at the Capitol for the land, for the water, and for our treaty rights," said Nancy Beaulieu, one of the event's lead organizers. "We've come in a peaceful way. For the grandmas to be met with fencing and so many law enforcement officials, as they sit on the lawn in ceremony, doesn't feel right. "We are all treaty people, and for the state government of Minnesota to respond to us as sovereign people in this way, with a dividing fence, doesn't make them very good treaty partners."

2,000 rally against Line 3 at state Capitol - About 2,000 people gathered outside the state Capitol Wednesday afternoon to protest Enbridge’s Line 3 oil pipeline, calling on Gov. Tim Walz and President Joe Biden to block the nearly completed project. Led by Indigenous people and environmental advocates — many of whom have been fighting the project since Enbridge submitted its first permit applications in 2015 — the “Treaties Not Tar Sands” event was a last-gasp effort to halt construction before the final pieces of pipe are buried. Enbridge says the project is more than 90% complete and scheduled to carry oil by the end of the year. “Our people have been here for thousands of years, and we didn’t mess anything up. You might want to take some notes,” said Winona LaDuke, director of the Indigenous environmental nonprofit Honor the Earth. “We’ve got to stop this line before they get to oil.” Participants gathered on the Capitol lawn, blocked from the building itself by a security fence. State officials said the fence — similar to the one that was in place for a year following civil unrest in spring 2020 — was put up last weekend in anticipation of several upcoming events at the Capitol. State troopers lined the perimeter and steps of the building as participants opened the event with song, drumming and dancing. Five hundred marchers were met with cheers and hugs as they arrived at the Capitol for the event, marking the completion of a 256-mile walk from Itasca State Park. The two-week trek was intended to call the attention of Biden and Walz to the project. Biden and Walz have faced mounting pressure from Indigenous people, environmental activists and some Democratic lawmakers to revoke key permits for the project in recent weeks. Speakers pleaded with them to take action, citing their campaign promises to prioritize tribal relations and the environment.

Line 3 is about to come online. What will Biden do? - The embattled Line 3 project could be operational next month, putting pressure on the Biden administration to weigh in as protesters march on the nation’s capital and legal fights heat up.Enbridge Inc. revealed in a filing this month to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and Canadian pipeline regulators that oil could begin flowing through the Line 3 project as soon as mid-September, marking a large step forward for an initiative that includes more than 300 miles of new pipeline through the Midwest. That new infrastructure will connect to the rest of Enbridge’s Line 3 system, which was built in the 1960s and extends from Edmonton, Alberta, to Superior, Wis. Enbridge says it needs to replace a section that’s deteriorating and not running at full capacity. The replacement project within the United States involves replacing nearly 370 miles of pipe in parts of North Dakota, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Only the Minnesota portion is unfinished. “It replaces the existing pipeline with a safer pipeline made of thicker steel and more advanced protective coatings, helping to protect the environment for generations to come,” The plans have sparked criticism from environmentalists and Democrats in Congress, creating a challenge for Biden as he aims to appeal to his base as well as moderate lawmakers backing the bipartisan infrastructure deal and labor unions. Yesterday, protesters gathered in front of the Army Corps of Engineers’ headquarters in Washington, unfurling a black tube marked with the message “Biden: Stop the Black Snake” that was then carried through city streets. The group also demonstrated at the White House and the home of Ron Klain, the White House chief of staff. Line 3 “is going through nearly half of North America’s freshwater, it has 22 river crossings and it goes through more than 200 bodies of freshwater,” Gina Peltier, a member of the Turtle Mountain Band of Chippewa, said to a crowd of about 100 people. “It doesn’t just affect Indigenous lands, it affects millions upon millions upon millions of people.”The Army Corps declined to comment on the fate of Line 3, citing ongoing litigation.On Capitol Hill, some Democrats like Sen. Jeff Merkley of Oregon are calling on the White House to direct the Army Corps to revoke a critical water permit for the project, which involves replacing sections of the existing Line 3 with larger diameter pipe in North Dakota, Minnesota and Wisconsin.“We urge you to utilize the authority you have to immediately suspend the 404 permit for Line 3 in order to conduct a full federal [environmental impact statement] prior to any additional construction,” Merkley wrote in a letter last week to Jaime Pinkham, a top Biden political appointee overseeing the Army Corps and a member of the Nez Perce Tribe. Merkley is a member of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee overseeing the Army Corps.He led the letter with Reps. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) and Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.). Project opponents have repeatedly made the same appeal, writing to Biden in May and again earlier this month.

Police Shared Intelligence on Protesters With Pipeline Company --POLICE RESPONSIBLE FOR public safety surrounding the construction of an oil pipeline in Minnesota have repeatedly denied having a close relationship with Enbridge, the company behind the controversial energy project. According to records obtained by The Intercept through public information requests, however, Enbridge has provided repeated trainings for officers designed to cultivate a coordinated response to protests. By the time construction on Line 3, a tar sands oil pipeline, began last December, a working relationship had been established between Enbridge and police officers. A public safety official even invited the company’s Line 3 security chief to regular intelligence sharing meetings. In one case, the official passed along intelligence to Enbridge’s security chief for Line 3: a list of people who attended an anti-pipeline organizing meeting. Line 3 opponents have long raised concerns about payments made to law enforcement by Enbridge to cover pipeline-related policing. A special account set up by the state of Minnesota has distributed $2.3 million in Enbridge funds to public safety agencies so far. The records shed new light on the level of close coordination between law enforcement agencies and the Canadian oil company to police the Indigenous-led movement to stop Line 3. “Local law enforcement has become the brutal arm of a Canadian corporation,” said Mara Verheyden-Hilliard, director of the Partnership for Civil Justice Fund’s Center for Protest Law and Litigation and an attorney representing opponents of the pipeline. “It’s highly inappropriate for law enforcement to target people based on First Amendment activity, collect identity information and then deliver that information to their political opponents.” The effort to halt the Line 3 pipeline is the latest flashpoint in the movement to end development of new fossil fuel infrastructure amid a growing climate crisis. In Minnesota, members of the Indigenous-led resistance, known as water protectors, have turned to tactics that directly disrupt construction, sometimes trespassing on private property, blocking roads, or locking down to pipeline company equipment.

 Severe oil leaks worsened Keystone pipeline’s spill record, GAO finds - The company behind the controversial Keystone XL project that President Joe Biden effectively killed on his first day of office had an oil spill record "worse than the national average" over a five-year period thanks to two major spills, according to a Government Accountability Office report published Monday. The two spills from the Keystone pipelines dumped a combined 12,000 barrels of oil in the Dakotas even as operator TC Energy was planning to expand that pipeline with its proposed Keystone XL project, which would have tripled the amount of crude the pipeline system would carry from Canada into the United States. Biden revoked the permit necessary to allow Keystone XL to cross the U.S.-Canada border, essentially killing the project in a bid to demonstrate his climate bona fides. TC Energy is now in court seeking $15 billion from the U.S. government for the cancellation. Despite the quick action on Keystone, environmental justice advocates have criticized the Biden administration for failing to take similarly decisive action to shut down other Canada-U.S. pipelines, such as the Line 3 pipeline in Minnesota.Jane Kleeb, chair of the Nebraska Democratic Party who has been opposing pipelines including Keystone XL for years, said the GAO report highlighted issues that environmental groups had already voiced concern over. But having the information in an official government report would help people in future protests against pipelines, she said.“These are not new weapons per se,” Kleeb said of the report’s description of the faulty material and subpar construction. “But I am deeply grateful that this is now in the formal record.”

Democrats argue new report on Keystone pipelines bolsters Biden cancellation A group of House Democrats is arguing that a new report on spills from the Keystone Pipeline System boosts President Biden’s case for canceling the Keystone XL, which would’ve formed part of the network. Reps. Frank Pallone Jr. (N.J.), Peter DeFazio (Ore.), Bobby Rush (Ill.), and Donald Payne Jr. (N.J.) said in a joint statement that the new Government Accountability Office (GAO) report “validates President Biden’s decision to revoke the permit to build the Keystone XL pipeline.” “In its thorough review of the pipeline’s history and construction, GAO found that preventable construction issues contributed to the current Keystone pipeline’s spills more frequently than the industry-wide trends,” said the Democratic lawmakers, who chair the House Energy and Commerce Committee, the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, and subcommittees on energy and railroads, pipelines and hazardous materials, respectively. “In fact, GAO found that, while corrosion was the industry’s leading cause of such accidents on crude oil pipelines, half of Keystone’s accidents were caused by material failure of the pipe or weld," they added. “President Biden was clearly right to question this operator’s ability to construct a safe and resilient pipeline, and we support his decision to put Americans’ health and environment above industry interests.” The report determined that since 2010, Keystone’s accident history is similar to that of other pipelines, but that its record has worsened in recent years. It particularly cited two more recent spills — one in 2017 and another in 2019 — that accounted for about 93 percent of the total barrels of oil released from the vessel network over the course of a decade. How Keystone’s operator TC Energy fared compared to its peers varied based on the time period and metrics used in the report. Using a government measure of the number of accidents impacting people and the environment per total miles of pipeline, the GAO said TC Energy was “consistently” better than the national average, though “less so” in recent years. Over the five-year period of 2016 to 2020, TC was around average, ranking 43rd out of 80 operators when measuring from the fewest accidents to the most. In terms of volume of oil spilled per barrel-mile of transport, TC was better than average over the past decade, worse than average of the past five years and better than average for the past three years. The report said that Keystone’s accidents were more likely to be caused by construction issues, approximately half of those impacting people or the environment, compared to 12 percent industrywide.

State Requires Higher Bond For Reuse Of Orphaned Natural-Gas Wells - A company that wants to use 19 orphaned natural-gas wells has agreed to post a higher bond with the state. The company is Highwire Energy Partners, of Wyoming. The wells are in the northwest corner of South Dakota near Buffalo. A bond is required so the state can capture the money if something goes wrong with the wells while the company is financially unable to plug them. A new state law says the minimum bond is $100,000. But the company is agreeing to post a $190,000 bond if it uses all 19 wells. “This is voluntary on their behalf,” said Mike Lees, administrator of the state’s Minerals and Mining Program. “It’s above and beyond the normal $100,000 blanket bond.” The 19 wells are part of a broader 40-well project. A Texas company, Spyglass Cedar Creek, went broke not long after drilling the wells 15 years ago. State laws at the time required $30,000 in bonds. That was not enough to plug the wells, so the state used taxpayer money. Lees said the state recently plugged 21 of the wells and reclaimed a compressor site at a total cost of $301,000. The plugging stopped when Highwire Energy Partners expressed interest in the remaining 19 wells. The company views the natural gas as a cheap power source for an unusual project. The gas will fire generators hooked to shacks full of computers, and the computers will run 24 hours a day solving complex numerical problems that bring new bitcoins into existence.

North Dakota Attorney General seeks order for feds to drop oil leasing moratorium --In a motion filed on Monday, North Dakota argued that the federal government has defied a court ruling by a Louisiana judge, from earlier this summer, which blocked the Biden administration's oil and gas leasing moratorium on federal lands.— North Dakota Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem filed a motion this week in district court calling on a judge to order that President Joe Biden's administration resume oil and gas leases on federal lands.Leases on federal lands have been under a pause since Biden installed a moratorium at the beginning of his presidency, part of a sweeping plan by the administration to transition the country away from fossil fuel energy sources.This week's motion is the latest action in a North Dakota lawsuit over the federal leasing pause, filed against the U.S. Department of Interior and U.S. Bureau of Land Management last month. The motion, which was submitted to a federal district court in North Dakota on Monday, Aug. 24, calls on U.S. District Judge Daniel Traynor to hold oral arguments in their case and to order the federal government's compliance with the ruling in a separate case that blocked the moratorium.In June, a Louisiana judge issued an injunction blocking the federal leasing moratorium. The American Petroleum Institute and other industry groups followed up with another lawsuit last week, after the federal government declined to resume leasing auctions in the wake of the Louisiana court decision. The Department of Interior said last week that they plan to continue auctions while they appeal the Louisiana ruling, but so far the agency has not disclosed a timeline for the return of leases. North Dakota claims that it has lost $82 million as a result of suspended auctions in March and June, a figure that the state argues could balloon into billions of dollars in the months ahead.

Nearly 59,000 gallons of brine spilled in western North Dakota - Almost all of the spill, which was reported by Whiting Oil and Gas and which followed delivery of the produced water to Goodnight Midstream Bakken, was contained to the well pad, according to an incident report filed to the state. — Close to 59,000 gallons of highly concentrated salt water spilled 11 miles south of Stanley, North Dakota, on Thursday, Aug. 19, according to an incident report filed to the state last week. Almost all of the spill, which was reported by Whiting Oil and Gas and followed delivery of the produced water to Goodnight Midstream Bakken, was contained to the well pad, according to the report. Produced water, or brine, is a byproduct of fracking that is highly saturated with salt and can contain chemical fluids, hydrocarbons and other contaminants damaging to local ecology and agricultural land. Whiting reported that 1,400 barrels, or 58,800 gallons, of produced water was released onto the site, and at the time of reporting 1,304 barrels had been recovered. The Denver-based company attributed the spill to "a broken fitting" between a transfer pump and pipeline. A state inspector has visited the site, where cleanup is underway, and will monitor additional remediation, the North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources said in a news release about the spill on Monday.

Pipeline Company to Pay $35 Million in Fines & Penalties for Inland Spill from Oil Drilling - The Department of Justice filed criminal charges under the Clean Water Act (CWA) against Summit Midstream Partners LLC, a North Dakota pipeline company. The company discharged 29 million gallons of produced water from its pipeline near Williston, North Dakota, over the course of nearly five months in 2014 to 2015.According to the Department of Justice (DOJ), the discharge of more than 700,000 barrels of produced water contaminated land, groundwater, and over 30 miles of tributaries of the Missouri River. The spill is believed to be the largest inland spill in history.In addition to criminal charges, the U.S. and the state of North Dakota filed a civil complaint against Summit and a related company, Meadowlark Midstream Company LLC, alleging violations of the CWA and North Dakota water pollution control laws. Summit Midstream Partners LLC has agreed to pay $35 million in criminal fines and civil penalties, according to the DOJ.“Summit prioritized profits over the environment. The company’s disregard for pipeline safety resulted in pollution of the environment on a massive scale over 143 days,” said Assistant Attorney General Todd Kim of the Justice Department’s Environment and Natural Resources Division in the DOJ news release. “Summit’s conduct was criminal and its failure to immediately report the discharge a felony. This resolution holds the company financially accountable, requires enhanced compliance measures to prevent future spills, and provides compensation for North Dakota’s damaged natural resources.” If the court accepts the plea agreement, Summit will pay $15 million in federal criminal fines for causing the continuous spill, failing to stop it and deliberately failing to make an immediate report, added the DOJ. The 700,000-barrel discharge of produced water contained crude oil, chloride, sodium, ammonia, aluminum, arsenic, boron, copper, nickel, selenium, zinc, barium, benzene and thallium, and more contaminants.

Produced water spill reported in Mountrail County -The North Dakota Oil and Gas Division was notified of a release occurring Thursday, August 19 at the Brown 41-28XH well, about 11 miles south of Stanley, North Dakota. Whiting Oil and Gas Corporation reported that 1,400 barrels of produced water were released due to an equipment failure/malfunction. The product was contained on-site.At the time of reporting 1,304 barrels of produced water had been recovered. and cleanup is underway. A state inspector has been to the location and will monitor any additional cleanup. Initial incident reports can be viewed in North Dakota’s Unified Spill Reporting System at spill.nd.gov

Fuel for Thought: Alaska looks to ammonia from natural gas as part of energy transition strategy - With the world headed into a low-carbon energy future, Alaska, rich in fossil fuels, is trying to hitch a ride on the green bandwagon.A joint project underway by the University of Alaska Fairbanks and the US Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is looking at whether ammonia could be made from vast proven natural gas reserves on the North Slope with the hydrogen in the ammonia used as a carbon-free fuel.The research is being supported by the US Department of Energy's Advanced Manufacturing Office."It's an interesting concept," said Corri Feige, Alaska's commissioner of natural resources. But Feige noted there could be technical problems with liquid ammonia as it is "very corrosive to steel," and introducing it into the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System, or TAPS, for shipment "could have detrimental effects."Others are interested in Alaska's ammonia-to-hydrogen connection, however. Tim Fitzpatrick, spokesperson for the Alaska LNG Project, a proponent of an 800-mile gas pipeline from the North Slope, said ammonia could be made in an existing, although mothballed, ammonia plant at Nikiski near the terminus in south Alaska."We think ammonia could add a lot of value to our project," which would also ship LNG, Fitzpatrick said. Agrium Corp. has been studying a restart of the plant but is stymied by a lack of sufficient natural gas supply.There's large upside if problems can be solved. Hydrogen is increasingly seen as the fuel of the future because its emissions are essentially water, and industries and companies worldwide studying how to use it. Hydrogen's downside is that its production, transportation and storage can be expensive. The process to make green hydrogen, basically splitting water molecules with renewable energy, isn't cheap, and making it from natural gas, called blue or sometimes gray hydrogen, doesn't have the same environmental advantages. Prisco said using ammonia as an intermediate "carrier" for the hydrogen solves some of the problems. Making liquid ammonia from natural gas is a conventional process, and liquid ammonia can be shipped like propane through pipelines, he said.

Federal Judge Pulls Permits For ConocoPhillips Oil Project Due To Impact On "Climate Change And Polar Bears" -- A federal approval of a multi-billion oil project that would have been built in Alaska was thrown out by a judge last week who claimed the government didn't assess the project's impact on climate change and polar bears before approving the permits.The project, called the ConocoPhillips Willow project, was backed by both the Biden and Trump administrations. It was also backed by "wide support" from Alaskan political leaders, according to the Wall Street Journal.But that didn't stop U.S. District Judge Sharon Gleason from ruling that the Bureau of Land Management didn't account for greenhouse gasses that the project would produce. The judge wrote: “As to the errors found by the Court, they are serious.”ConocoPhillips will now head back to the drawing board and "evaluate its options", according to the report. Despite the project getting the backing of the Biden administration, the company knew it had a long road of legal challenges (in an unfavorable PR climate for oil & gas names) to deal with. The project was supposed to be a 160,000 barrel-per-day, 30 year project that would drill in the federal government’s National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska.The Ninth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals had slowed the project this year, despite the Trump administration offering its final approval of the project in October. Alaska governor Mike Dunleavy said: “Make no mistake, today’s ruling from a federal judge trying to shelve a major oil project on American soil does one thing: outsources. This is a horrible decision.”Jeremy Lieb, an attorney with Earthjustice, who brought the case on behalf of other plaintiffs, said: “We are hopeful that the administration won’t give the fossil fuel industry another chance to carve up this irreplaceable Arctic landscape with drilling rigs, roads, and pipelines. We should keep Arctic oil in the ground if we want a livable planet for future generations.”

Progressives eye halt to ANWR drilling in reconciliation bill - Congressional Democrats and their environmentalist allies are increasingly confident they’ll be able to stop drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in the reconciliation process. According to several sources who spoke to E&E News this week, conversations were taking place at the highest levels of House and Senate leadership as lawmakers prepare to mark up portions of the $3.5 trillion infrastructure spending bill as early as next week (see related story). On the House side, the effort is being championed by Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.), the chair of the House Natural Resources Subcommittee on Water, Oceans and Wildlife, who has sponsored legislation to stop ANWR lease sales slated for 2024. “I’d rather not be very specific,” Huffman said of conversations he’s had with leaders regarding the negotiations, “but let’s just say I think it’s in play and I’m hopeful.” Collin O’Mara, president and CEO of the National Wildlife Federation, said there is “strong support from leadership and from key allies on the Hill, so we’re optimistic it will be included.” This push comes as environmental groups and congressional Democrats are also pursuing a host of other reforms to the government’s oil and gas drilling program, including increasing century-old royalty rates for onshore federal leases and strengthening bonding requirements — the amount that oil companies must secure in order to drill for federal minerals (E&E Daily, Aug. 24). The League of Conservation Voters, alongside NWF, was among the 33 groups that signed a letter to House and Senate leaders Monday night calling for reconciliation to address these policies. However, LCV President Gene Karpinski conceded that environmental advocates might have a better chance in securing a repeal of the 2017 ANWR leasing language. “They can make a lot of changes with executive authority and they don’t need Congress,” Karpinski told E&E News — by, for instance, raising royalty rates. “But you can’t fix the Arctic drilling without Congress,” he said.

ANALYSIS: Canadian working gas storage inventories slide well below five-year average | S&P Global Platts - Canadian natural gas production continues to demonstrate surprising strength this summer, but the nation's storage fields remain 11% below the five-year average, which is nearly double the deficit US storage inventories are facing as winter demand approaches. Western Canada storage fields held 408 Bcf of working gas as of Aug. 27, according to data by S&P Global Platts Analytics. This is well below the five-year average of 457 Bcf and last year's 487 Bcf in the corresponding week. Even under a normal weather scenario, Platts Analytics is forecasting a tight balance for Western Canada this winter. Exports to the US are expected to be strong, while demand has been exceeding expectations in a trend that should continue through the winter. Platts Analytics is expecting 300 to 400 MMcf/d of Canadian demand growth this winter from last, primarily from coal power plants converting to gas. In addition to strong local demand, last winter's export strength to the US appears poised to repeat itself. Oklahoma production took a substantial hit from the pandemic leading to less available supply for the US Upper Midwest last year. It is expected to continue this winter. This means that Western Canada is likely to fill this void in the US Upper Midwest. This would pull on AECO via Great Lakes and Viking pipelines. Canadian producers have developed growth plans likely leading to an 800 MMcf/d increase in production over last winter. However, even new production of this magnitude leaves the market tight and vulnerable to a cold winter. These producer plans were laid out earlier in the year when AECO was expected to be below $3.00/MMBtu or even below $2.50/MMBtu. However, AECO is now expected to be in excess of $3.00/MMBtu this winter, the strongest it has been in years. Producers' financial health across North America has drastically improved in the past two quarters, following improved commodity prices and continued financial discipline. Canadian operators on average have reduced their net debt levels by 11% since the start of the year. Platts Analytics expects the reduction could be over 20% by year-end. Meanwhile, US gas operators have only managed to reduce their net debt by 5% since the start of the year. Broadly, operators have stuck to capital discipline, but Canadian operators are starting to redeploy capital back to the drill bit while also more rapidly paying down debt. Canadian gas operators are now expected to increase capital expenditures 21% year on year, up from their original guidance of 13%. Contrast this to US gas operators, which have had to truly stick to capital discipline, with their 2021 capex down 4% on average.M

Fire erupts after explosion at Pemex Oil platform in Gulf of Mexico - An explosion has caused a fire at an oil platform of the Pemex (Petroleos Mexicanos) state-owned oil company in the Gulf of Mexico, local media report. The blast occurred at the Ku-Alpha platform, which is part of the Ku-Maloob-Zaap oil field off the coast of Tabasco and Campeche, on Sunday, Codigo Veracruz Noticias reported via Facebook, posting photos and a video of the subsequent fire and black smoke coming from the site. Pemex has not officially confirmed the explosion. Codigo Veracruz Noticias said that at least six people were injured in the Sunday explosion. They are expected to be transferred to hospitals in Campeche. Ku-Maloob-Zaap is one of the world's largest offshore oil complexes, accounting for more than 40 percent of Pemex's nearly 1.7 million barrels of daily output. In July, a gas leak from a pipeline caused a heavy underwater fire at the Ku-Charly oil platform at the Ku-Maloob-Zaap offshore oil complex. No injuries were reported then.

Ku-Alfa explosion: Fears of multiple people injured after huge blast on oil platform - - A huge explosion has cast thick clouds of smoke in the air at an oil rig in Mexico, raising concerns of multiple casualties.Alarming photos from off the coast of Campeche in the Gulf of Mexico show a rig ablaze, with heavy black smoke spreading up into the sky.It is currently unclear what caused the explosion on the KU-Alpha platform.Workers are racing to close valves to prevent further damage to the oil facilities, Campeche reported, which lie close to where one of the worst spills in the industry's history took place.Unofficial reports suggest six people have been injured in the explosion and resultant fire before being transported via helicopter to a hospital in Ciudad del Carmen. The smoke cloud can be seen from many miles away. Works on the rig, which was in use at the time of the explosion, are being evacuated to floats, Reuters reports.The Cantarell Complex of five oil fields lies beneath the Bay of Campeche.In 2003, it was the second most productive oil field in the world, then supplying about two thirds of Mexico's crude oil output, but it went into a steep decline soon thereafter.On June 3, 1979, Ixtoc I, an exploratory oil well located in the bay, suffered a blowout that caused a catastrophic explosion, resulting in what has been ranked as the third largest unintentional oil spill in history.In early July Pemex, which owns the KU-Alpha platform, had to put out a fire in an underwater pipeline connecting two platforms.

Heavy crude prices rise as Pemex fire roils U.S. market, traders say -- A fire that struck an offshore oil platform operated by Mexico's state-run Pemex cut the company's production by 444,000 barrels per day A fire that struck an offshore oil platform operated by Mexico’s state-run Pemex cut the company’s production by 444,000 barrels per day (bpd) due to the lack of natural gas to re-inject into crude fields, a company document showed on Monday. At least one person died and five others were missing following an explosion on Sunday at Pemex’s E-Ku-A2 platform, part of a gas-processing center of the Ku-Maloob-Zaap complex in the Gulf of Mexico’s Bay of Campeche. The fire, the second at a Petroleos Mexicanos offshore platform in less than two months, was brought under control hours later. The two fires have put a spotlight on Pemex’s safety protocols given past refinery outages and fires. Two sources familiar with Pemex’s operations said the fire affected the operational side of the platform, forcing the company to completely shut the gas supply and distribution to neighboring offshore oil fields. Pemex said early on Monday that the affected platform’s gas valves had been shut to extinguish the fire, while an emergency plan was put in place to search for the missing people, all of them contract workers A rapid decline in the availability of natural gas, which is used by Pemex to boost oil at its offshore fields, knocked crude output from more than 719,000 bpd before the accident to nearly 275,000 bpd through early Monday, according to the document, seen by Reuters, detailing Ku-Maloob-Zaap’s operations. It was not immediately clear if Pemex was able to recover at least a portion of the lost output. The Ku-Maloob-Zaap oilfield cluster is Pemex’s biggest operational complex, accounting for more than 40% of its nearly 1.7 million barrels of daily crude output. The company did not reply to a Reuters request for operational details.

Offshore platform fire cuts Mexico oil output by 444,000 bpd - (Reuters) - Prices of heavy sour crude oil grades are rising in the U.S. Gulf Coast, traders said, as the market braces for a disruption of supplies from Mexico in the wake of a fire that has cut state-run Pemex's oil output by about 25% since Sunday. At least five workers were killed and six injured in the blaze, which broke out on an offshore platform in the southern Gulf of Mexico operated by Petroleos Mexicanos PEMX.UL, halting production of more than 400,000 barrels per day (bpd), the company said on Monday. It could take days for output and flows to return to normal, people familiar with the matter said, even as work is underway to restore power to the facility by Wednesday, and later connect 125 idled wells at the Ku-Maloob-Zaap cluster, Mexico's largest. Pemex did not reply to a request for comment. U.S. Gulf Coast sour crude grades including Mars have begun rising as U.S. refiners begin to seek replacement barrels for the lost Mexican supplies, traders said. Mars crude had traded at the weakest levels in about a month before the fire WTC-MRS, but prices on Tuesday were seen trading at a $2.35 discount to benchmark futures, stronger than the $2.65 discount on Monday, dealers said. Heavy grades such as Western Canadian Select (WCS) in Alberta also have started to strengthen on news of the outage, traders said. U.S. oil refiners Chevron Corp CVX.N, Phillips 66 PSX.N and Valero Energy VLO.N are scheduled to receive Mexican crude cargoes in coming days, the people said. Valero aims to load a cargo on Tuesday in Mexico, sourcing the barrels from onshore Pemex storage tanks at the Pajaritos terminal in the Gulf Coast, market sources said.

 Delays force Argentina to purchase LNG at record-high prices Argentina’s Plan Gas IV, which aimed to incentivise natural gas production in the country, was introduced too late, according to GlobalData. The data and analytics company notes that the plan’s delays have meant production has not ramped up enough to get the country through the winter, and it will be forced to rely on importing LNG at record-high prices.Svetlana Doh, Upstream Oil & Gas Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Plan Gas IV’s delay is a shame, as it has introduced some positive changes. For example, operators must commit to supply contracted volumes for a period of four years – with a possibility to extend the terms for another four. There is also now a maximum price for each basin, which should not exceed US$3.21/million Btu of gas, and the contract prices being in US dollars give more certainty for operators in the mid-term. In fact, ever since the plan was initiated, drilling activities in the Neuquina basin, home to the Vaca Muerta shale, have picked up and production rose by almost 19% in the period of February - June 2021. It is just all a bit too late to meet winter energy demand.“Argentina’s energy supply demand is still way below its production capacity when it comes to natural gas. Further, this production is forecast to decline at an average 3.4% in the next five years.”In 2016, the Argentinian Government’s incentives resulted in more output and an increase in domestic supply. By 2018, Argentina had substantially narrowed the natural gas supply-demand gap and was very enthusiastic about LNG exporting opportunities. However, natural gas production dropped by almost 15% by the month of March 2020 due to the global pandemic. In attempt to sustain drilling operations, the government offered a guaranteed price of US$45/bbl for crude oil producers and US$3.5/million Btu for upstream natural gas.Doh continues: “The plan announced in June 2020 did not allow enough time for production to react to the incentive. As the winter months of June to August show the highest domestic demand for gas, Argentina had to rely on imported LNG. This year the country is experiencing a bit of déjà vu as Argentina is facing the same situation again.”

 Nord Stream 2 says Fortuna vessel working on final stage of project - The Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline construction is 99% complete, the operating company said on Wednesday, after a media report the Russian-led project, which has come under criticism from the United States, is expected to be finished on Aug. 23. Natural gas prices in Europe fell sharply following the report. Deutsche Welle news outlet reported, without providing sources, that the construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline is set to be completed on August 23. Swiss-based Nord Stream 2 AG declined to give a possible completion date but said the Russian Fortuna pipe-laying vessel was working on the final part of the pipeline construction. It referred Reuters to a Handelsblatt business daily interview last month with its chief executive officer Matthias Warnig who said the pipeline, which will bring Russian gas to Germany, should be finished in late August and enter service this year. Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Angela Merkel are due to meet in Moscow on Friday and most likely will discuss the pipeline, which Washington says will increase European reliance on Russian gas.

Russia is pumping a lot less natural gas to Europe all of a sudden — and it is not clear why - Russia has slowed the delivery of piped natural gas to Europe in recent weeks, according to analysis from ICIS, a commodity intelligence service, raising questions about the potential causes behind the drop and its implications for global gas markets. It comes shortly after German Chancellor Angela Merkel sought to ease long-running concerns about the nearly completed Nord Stream 2 pipeline, saying further sanctions may be imposed if Moscow used gas "as a weapon." The controversial project is designed to deliver Russian gas directly to Germany via the Baltic Sea, bypassing Ukraine and Poland. Critics argue the pipeline is not compatible with European climate goals, increases the region's dependence on Russian energy exports, and will most likely strengthen Russian President Vladimir Putin's economic and political influence over the region. Europe will be like a frog in boiling water, not noticing that it is in trouble until it is too late. Some analysts have suggested Gazprom, Russia's state-owned gas giant, may be limiting its delivery of discretionary natural gas supply to Europe to support its case in starting flows via Nord Stream 2. "That's because Gazprom is readying itself for starting Nord Stream 2 and it is hoping to exert an element of leverage in terms of trying to make sure that when all the regulatory t's get crossed and i's get dotted, that that process is as swift as possible," Tom Marzec-Manser, lead European gas analyst at ICIS, told CNBC via telephone. "If there is less gas around than normal and the price is high then it may streamline that process," he added. When approached for comment, Gazprom referred CNBC to a statement published on its Telegram account Aug. 16. The company described August as "another 'winter' month on the gas market," according to a translation. An increased load on the gas supply system had coincided with the traditional season of scheduled preventive maintenance and preparation for the fall to winter period, "which cannot be paused," Gazprom said. "The practice of the last few years both in Russia and in Europe suggests that the winter period has also shifted to the spring month of March. Therefore, now, in the summer, the priority is to pump gas into underground storage facilities," the company said. "This is also very well understood by our European colleagues." Natural gas flows at the westernmost point of the Yamal pipeline — a strategically important 2,000-kilometer pipeline that runs across four countries: Russia, Belarus, Poland and Germany — dropped to 20 million cubic meters per day in mid-August, according to ICIS. This was down from 49 mcm per day at the end of July, and a sharp fall from its typical rate of 81 mcm per day. What's more, European piped natural gas supply from Russia is expected to slip even further in September. Marzec-Manser said that for Russia to move gas through neighboring energy community states, such as Ukraine, it must first purchase access to a pipeline, "like a toll road." The Nord Stream 1 route is an option, although this is already owned by Gazprom, and is flowing at capacity. The Yamal pipeline is a second major route and, until the end of July, was running at close to capacity as expected. "Thirdly, you have the Ukrainian route which obviously comes with a lot of political baggage," he continued. "It is the only other way you are going to get gas from Russia to Europe in any significant volume." Gazprom typically efficiently uses its booked EU pipe capacity, Marzec-Manser said, but an unexpected drop in volumes at the end of July along the Yamal pipeline "immediately indicated something was amiss."

Russia ready to continue gas transit via Ukraine post-2024: Putin - President Vladimir Putin said Aug. 20 that Russia was ready to continue supplying gas to Europe via Ukraine after 2024, but that Moscow needed clarity on future European gas demand before agreeing to any new transit deal. Speaking at a joint press conference in Moscow with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Putin also said Russia would continue gas transit via Ukraine after the Nord Stream 2 pipeline is finished, adding that there were just 15 km of the link left to lay. Russia’s state-controlled Gazprom in late 2019 agreed to transit 65 Bcm of gas via Ukraine in 2020 and 40 Bcm/year in the 2021-2024 period, well down on a recent transit peak of 94 Bcm in 2017. Putin said Russia would continue to respect its current contractual obligations with regard to Ukrainian transit, even after Merkel steps down as Chancellor after the German elections in September and Nord Stream 2 is completed. Putin added that even after 2024, when its current five-year deal with Kyiv expires, Russia was “ready to continue to transit gas through Ukraine.” But, he said, Russia needed to know what the volume of gas to deliver through Ukraine would be and for how long. “For this we must receive an answer, including from our European partners — how much are they ready to buy from us?” Putin said. “We cannot sign a transit contract if we do not have supply contracts to our consumers in Europe,” he said. In view of Europe’s ambitions for a greener energy system, Putin said the question was: “How much of our gas will Europe buy?” This, he said, was a subject for discussion. “This is a purely commercial issue,” he added.

Ports in Russia to be inspected within one month - Ports in Russia are planned to be inspected after the oil spill near Novorossiysk within one month and with involvement of Russian environment protection and technical regulators, Deputy Prime Minister Victoria Abramchenko said on Tuesday.“Colleagues from the Federal Service for Supervision of Natural Resources should perform this inspection within one month. Colleagues from the Federal Service for Ecological, Technical and Atomic Supervision are also engaged because these facilities are hazardous,” the official told reporters.All the hazardous goods will also be inspected, Abramchenko added. The oil spill under Novorossiysk occurred on August 7. According to estimates of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, the spill area was about 200 sq m and the volume of spilled oil – about 12 cubic meters. According to CPC data, the accident was caused by the collapse of the inner space of the single point mooring’s hydraulic damper.
Source: TASS

 Papua New Guinea resumes talks with Exxon on gas field agreement (Reuters) - The Papua New Guinea government and U.S. oil major Exxon Mobil Corp plan to resume talks on the P'nyang natural gas project, nearly two years after their negotiations halted, Exxon confirmed on Monday. In November 2019, talks tied to a $13 billion expansion of the country's liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports fell apart with the government saying Exxon was unwilling to negotiate on the country’s terms. Papua New Guinea has been pressing for better returns for the impoverished country than it obtained in the original PNG LNG agreement in 2008. "We look forward to further discussions with the government to align on a gas agreement that ensures fair benefits for project stakeholders and the people of PNG," Exxon said in an emailed comment, declining to elaborate on details of the discussions. The talks are focused on developing the P'nyang gas field. Exxon and its partners, including Oil Search Ltd, had intended to develop P'nyang to feed a new processing unit, or train, at the two train PNG LNG plant. However, since the talks collapsed, the thinking has moved toward developing P'nyang further down the track to feed the existing trains as the current gas sources dry up, rather than expanding PNG LNG, Oil Search has previously said. PNG Minister for Petroleum, Kerenga Kua said on Monday if all goes well, "we can expect to sign a P'nyang Heads of Agreement around the end of this next month and a Gas Agreement thereafter." "We look forward to further progress in these negotiations and will support (Exxon) through our 38.51% interest in the joint venture," said Diego Fettweis, Oil Search's executive vice president for commercial. Its stake in PNG LNG is considered the jewel in the crown for Oil Search, which agreed to an all-stock takeover offer from Santos Ltd worth about A$8 billion ($6 billion) in a deal that would create a top-20 global oil and gas company.

Did Hackers Just Pull Off A Maritime "Colonial Pipeline 2.0"? -When the LockBit ransomware gang announced it had hit maritime fuel provider Petrologis Canarias earlier this month, the hackers proclaimed the cyberattack “Colonial Pipeline 2.0” with an added wink emoji. Unfortunately for the hackers, it could never have lived up to the massive disruption of the U.S. fuel supply after theransomware attack on Colonial. Based in Spain’s Canary Islands, their victim has 73,500 cubic meters, or 19.4 million gallons, used for bunkering — the refueling of vessels. The firm, operating out of the Port of Las Palmas, also provides bunkering logistics services. Jack Jordan, managing editor of Ship & Bunker, characterized Petrologis as a small-to-midsize player in what itself is a small market that’s a “​​key place you might stop off coming from Africa.”“If that facility were to disappear, it would be inconvenient for ships traversing the Canaries,” Jordan said. Vessels, instead, might have to source their fuel from Gibraltar or South Africa. The attack on Petrologis does not appear to have taken the fuel provider out of commission. But the extent of the incident is murky. The company con tends that it failed to impact operations, and that it remedied the problem by restarting the affected computers. Meanwhile, the hackers are preparing to leak over 11 gigabytes of stolen data in retaliation for Petrologis not paying an unspecified ransom.

 Oil spill from power station spreads along Syria's coast - Times of India - A massive oil spill caused by leakage from a power plant inside one of Syria's oil refineries is spreading along the coast of the Mediterranean country, Syria's state news agency said and satellite photos showed Wednesday. Sana said the spill reached the coastal town of Jableh, about 20 kilometers (12 miles) north of the refinery in the town of Baniyas, adding that Syria's environment department and the municipality of the coastal province of Latakia have placed all concerned departments on alert. It said work is underway to clean the coast in the rocky areas.A day earlier, Syria's government said that maintenance teams at Baniyas thermal station had brought a fuel leakage from one of the tanks under control.Satellite images from Planet Labs Inc. on Wednesday showed what appeared to be a massive 19-kilometer long spread oil spill from the Baniyas plant. An image from Monday showed no sign of the slick, suggesting whatever happened to cause the spill happened later.The head of the electricity workers syndicate at Tartous Workers Union, Dawoud Darwish, blamed cracks in one of the fuel tanks at the thermal station. He pointed out that the tank was filled with 15,000 tons of fuel.Syria's oil resources are mostly outside of government controlled areas but its two refineries are under government control and operating. This makes Damascus reliant on Iran for fuel, but US treasury sanctions have hindered the supply network, which spans Syria, Iran and Russia.There has been a series of mysterious attacks on vessels in Mideast waters, including off Syria's coast, for over a year. They have come amid rising tensions in the region between Iran, Israel and the United States.In May, Syria's foreign minister blamed Israel for mysterious attacks targeting oil tankers heading to Syria, saying they violate international law and will not go unpunished.

Oil Prices Rebound as Dollar Slips, China Pandemic Jitters Ease - – Crude oil prices soared Monday, supported by weakness in the dollar, and signs that China is getting handle on the Delta variant of COVID-19, easing fears of a prolonged setback for travel-infused energy demand. On the New York Mercantile Exchange crude futures for October delivery gained $3.50 to settle at $65.64 a barrel, while on London's Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE:ICE), Brent added $3.57 to settle at $68.75 a barrel. China, the world's largest energy consumer, reported no new Covid-19 cases for the first time since July, easing investor fears of a prolonged setback for travel and energy demand. "The coming weeks will reveal whether the travel restrictions that have been imposed in China and other Asia-Pacific countries will really have such an impact on fuel demand as last week‘s price performance suggests," Commerzbank (DE:CBKG) said in a note. Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) estimated the impact of increased pandemic restrictions in China has cut oil demand by nearly 1 million barrels per day. "China concerns are particularly pronounced in investor conversations around copper and oil, with our Commodities colleagues estimating a 0.7 million (barrels per day) bpd impact to oil demand from increased restrictions in China," Goldman Sachs said in a note. As well as signs of positive signs on the pandemic front in China, a falling dollar also helped push up oil prices as risk-on sentiment gripped markets. The US Dollar Index Futures, which measures the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, slid by 0.56% to 92.99. A weaker dollar makes oil, priced in the U.S. dollars, attractive in other currencies, boosting demand.

Oil Futures Rally on Chatter of Fed Delayed Quantitative Easing Tapering -- Nearby delivery month oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange settled Monday's session sharply higher, lifting the U.S. crude benchmark above $65 per barrel (bbl). The rally came after weaker-than-expected economic data fueled speculation the Federal Reserve would delay tapering its quantitative easing program until later this year, weakening the dollar index that, along with risk-on trade sentiment across financial markets, fueled buying interest. More evidence of slowing economic growth could be found in manufacturing data released Monday morning by IHS Markit showing business activity in services and industrial sectors this month fell to the slowest pace since December 2020. Capacity constraints, difficulty in hiring qualified staff and the aggressive spread of the Delta coronavirus variant were cited as key factors behind renewed weakness across the economy. Severe supply chain disruptions have also led to a further increase in cost burdens at private sector firms midway through the third quarter. The rate of input price inflation accelerated to the second-fastest on record, with both manufacturing and service sectors registering a quicker rise in costs. Commenting on the data, Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit, said, "Not only have supply chain delays hit a new survey record high, but the August survey saw increasing frustrations in relation to hiring. Job growth waned to the lowest since July of last year as companies either failed to find suitable staff or existing workers switched jobs." The recent accumulation of slowing growth, including weaker-than-expected manufacturing data and its effect on employment gains, fueled speculation that voting Fed officials who recently spoke in hawkish terms on monetary policy would reconsider aggressive tapering of $120 billion in monthly purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. Last week, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan suggested he might readjust his stance on rolling back the central bank's support for the economy when the Federal Open Market Committee meets next on Sept. 21-22 should rising coronavirus cases further subdue business and consumer activity. The comments come ahead of the Federal Reserve's annual Jackson Hole symposium that begins Thursday, Aug. 27, with a keynote address from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell scheduled for Friday. The theme of this year's retreat, which will be held virtually "due to the recently-elevated COVID-19 health risk level," is "Macroeconomic Policy in an Uneven Economy." Oil complex was further lent support by bullish economic data out of the European Union, where business activity in August continued to grow at a strong monthly rate despite cooling slightly amid widespread supply chain delays and concerns over the Delta spread.

Oil jumps as much as 6%, snapping longest losing streak since 2019 -Oil prices jumped Monday, snapping a seven-day losing streak that was crude's worst since 2019, as the dollar pulled back and traders bet the recent selling was overdone. "News of zero new cases in China has certainly provided a tailwind as it gives added light at the end of the Covid tunnel and a breath of fresh air to the demand landscape," noted analysts at Blue Line Futures. "Additionally, the U.S. Dollar has retreated from recent highs, underpinning the commodity landscape broadly." West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the U.S. oil benchmark, gained $3.50, or 5.6%, to settle at $65.64 per barrel. Earlier in the day it rose more than 6% to hit a session high of $66, at which point it was on track for its best day since November. The sharp jump marks a turnaround from last week when the contract sank nearly 9% for its worst weekly performance since October and second negative week in three. WTI ended Friday at its lowest level since May 20. International benchmark Brent crude advanced 5.48%, or $3.57, to $68.75 per barrel on Monday, after posting its worst week since October. Oil's tumble came amid fears of a demand slowdown as the delta variant of Covid-19 spreads, leading to new lockdowns in countries including Japan and New Zealand. Additionally, weak economic data out of China, which is the world's largest crude importer, weighed on prices. The latest U.S. inventory report also showed a rise in gasoline stocks as well as an uptick in output from U.S. producers. But some Wall Street firms said the selling looked overdone. "We find this price weakness excessive and believe it has more to do with the psychology of market participants than with any deterioration of fundamental data," noted analysts at Commerzbank. Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, said that macro headwinds including the reflation unwind and Covid concerns in China are veiling the bullish backdrop for oil and commodities more generally. "While liquidity will likely remain low and the trend is not our friend right now, we believe the micro — steadily tightening commodity fundamentals — will trump these macro trends as we move toward autumn, pushing many markets like oil and base metals to new highs for this cycle," the firm wrote Monday in a note to clients. Energy stocks jumped on the heels of oil's rise, and the group was the top-performing S&P 500 sector, gaining more than 3%. The energy sector fell more than 7% last week and has yet to reclaim its spot as the top-performing group this year. Energy was the best sector for the first half of the year but has been hit hard in recent weeks and is now the fourth-best sector for 2021, trailing financials, real estate and communication services.

 Oil spikes as deadly blaze in Mexico slashes output by 420,000 barrels per day - Oil prices jumped on Tuesday as a fire on a Mexican offshore oil rig killed five and cut the country's daily output by nearly a quarter.Pemex, Mexico's state-owned oil company, said on Monday that about 420,000 barrels per day of oil output - about 0.5% of average global output - had been knocked offline, but projected that the 125 impacted wells could be up and running within days.West Texas Intermediate oil futures shot up as much as 3.3% on Tuesday to $67.80 per barrel. The two-day rally was even sharper. From Friday's closing price, WTI was up as much as 8.8%. Another factor boosting oil prices on Tuesday was sunnier feelings about projected oil demand, especially from China, even as spread of the Delta variant continues apace."It seems that the concerns about demand that had still predominated last week have lost much of their scare factor, at least for now," analysts at Germany's Commerzbank told the Financial Times. "One key part in this is the clear success that the Chinese authorities are having in combating the spread of the Delta variant." Iron ore and agricultural commodities also enjoyed a boost on Tuesday, buoyed by more sanguine sentiment about Chinese iron demand and extreme heat killing American corn, soy, and wheat.

Oil Continues Rise As China Beats Down Covid Cases | Rigzone - Oil extended gains from the biggest jump in five months as China’s success in stamping out virus flare-ups boosts optimism of a demand recovery. U.S. oil futures rose 2.9% while Brent topped $71 a barrel. China has rapidly brought local virus cases down to zero and road traffic is showing signs of recovery. The country also reopened its Ningbo port, one of the busiest in the world, after a two-week shutdown. “The developments out of China are reigniting expectations that oil demand would start to rise again,”  Meanwhile, a fire on a Mexican oil platform wiped out more than 400,000 barrels a day of the nation’s output, roughly equivalent to what OPEC+ will discuss adding back to the market when it meets next month. Covid’s resurgence has interrupted oil’s rally and prompted speculation that OPEC+ may reassess its current plan to return additional barrels to the market when it meets Sept. 1. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., however, reiterated that the demand impact from delta would be transient, while UBS Group AG sees Brent crude recovering to $75 a barrel on market tightness. This week’s rally has coincided with a sharp strengthening in timespreads that indicate prompt demand. The difference between the nearest two December Brent futures contracts jumped by $1 a barrel in the past two days. Gains in the global benchmark increased its premium to WTI to the widest since April. West Texas Intermediate for October delivery rose $1.90 to $67.54 a barrel in New York. Brent for October gained $2.30 to $71.05, settling above $71 for the first time since Aug. 12. Despite the positive strides against the Delta variant, hurdles still remain to restoring demand. Chinese airlines plan to operate the fewest flights in August since February, according to data from Cirium. In Malaysia, rising infections are threatening to aggravate shortages of semiconductors and other components that have hammered automakers for months.

Oil rises on US fuel demand, extends rally - Oil prices rose about 1% on Wednesday, extending gains for a third session, after U.S. government data showed that fuel demand climbed to its highest since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Brent crude settled $1.20, or 1.7%, higher at $72.25 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude advanced 82 cents, or 1.2%, to $68.36 per barrel. The four-week average for U.S. total product supplied, a proxy for fuel demand, soared to nearly 21 million barrels per day, its highest since March 2020, when governments first began to widely impose pandemic-related restrictions, U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed Wednesday. U.S. crude inventories fell by 3 million barrels in the last week to 432.6 million barrels, the EIA said, about 1% higher than during the same time in 2019, before the pandemic. Refiners have ramped up production to 92.4% of operable capacity, the highest since late June. Gasoline stocks fell by 2.2 million barrels in the week to 225.92 million barrels, EIA said. Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by 600,000 barrels in the week to 138.46 million barrels. "The market is being led up by gasoline inventory draws and good gasoline demand as we head into the end of the summer driving season," said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates in Houston. Over the last three sessions, both Brent and WTI have risen around 10%. The rally erased most a week-long slump triggered by a resurgence in COVID-19 cases. Price gains came after Mexican supply fell by more than 400,000 barrels per day following a fire on an oil platform. Mexico's state oil firm said it expected to resume production by Aug. 30. "While volatility looks set to continue, we see further gains for oil as global economic normalization continues and OPEC remains disciplined on crude supplies," said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management. The bank expects Brent crude prices to rise to $75 a barrel by December. In a sign that the spread of infections from the coronavirus Delta variant was easing in China, the country on Wednesday reported just 20 new confirmed coronavirus cases for Aug. 24, down from 35 a day earlier.

Oil Futures Ease After Three-Day Rally Ahead of Fed Summit -- Following a three-session rally, oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange pulled back early Thursday, sending the U.S. crude benchmark 1% lower as traders positioned ahead of incoming data on domestic inflation and jobless claims for additional clues on the economy's performance under a Delta-driven avalanche of coronavirus infections, and signals for potential tapering of the Federal Reserve's bond and mortgage-backed securities purchases as policymakers gather for their annual summit in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Storm activity is limiting losses for the oil complex Thursday morning, as Tropical Wave Invest 99L "continues to become better organized," said DTN Weather, tracking towards U.S. Gulf of Mexico. Meteorologists at DTN Weather forecast the system will develop into a tropical depression or storm later Thursday or Friday, while moving into the Gulf this weekend, seen reaching hurricane strength Sunday evening, early Monday. The expected path of the storm has moved east away from Houston, with landfall now seen along the Louisiana-Mississippi border Tuesday morning. Last year, a total of six Atlantic Basin storms shut-in over 41 million barrels (bbl) in offshore Gulf of Mexico crude oil production. The level of activity for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season is once again forecast to rank well above normal. DTN Weather forecast 21 storms of which nine storms are hurricanes including four major hurricanes. We are quickly approaching peak hurricane activity. In outside markets, U.S. equity futures were mixed Thursday and the dollar index gapped higher, as investors prepare for a key reading on U.S. inflation and jobless claims ahead of the Federal Reserve economic summit in Jackson Hole. Global stocks retreated from Wednesday's record high after Bank of Korea introduced its first rate hike in three years, pulling back fiscal support for the economy despite heightened risks tied to the Delta coronavirus variant. BOK's decision could cast a different light on Friday's speech from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, although market consensus appears to have tilted towards a more dovish speech from the Fed chair. Investors also await the second estimate of second quarter U.S. Gross Domestic Product, which is expected 0.1% above the first reading for 6.6% growth, weekly jobless claims and the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption and Expenditures price index. .

Oil rally falters on pandemic surge, renewed Mexico supply - (Reuters) -Oil settled lower on Thursday, snapping a three-day rally on renewed concerns over demand due to rising COVID-19 infections and as Mexico restored some output after a fire disrupted supplies. Losses were limited by the potential for other supply interruptions. Energy companies prepared for the possibility of a severe storm hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend. Brent crude settled down $1.18, or 1.6%, at $71.07 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate oil settled down 94 cents, or 1.4% at 67.42 a barrel. Fresh COVID-19 outbreaks fueled by the Delta variant raised concerns about the strength of the economic recovery globally. Oil was also weighed down by broader weakness in equity markets later in the day, analysts said. [.N] Mexico has begun restoring output after a fire on an offshore platform on Sunday knocked out more than 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) of production. By Tuesday, state oil firm Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) had recovered 71,000 bpd of production and expected to add an additional 110,000 bpd this week. However, Pemex's efforts to restore oil production could lag official projections, people close to the matter told Reuters, as re-connecting wells is proving more difficult than planned. Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador on Thursday said Pemex will produce an average of 1.8 million bpd by year end, despite the fire. Royal Dutch Shell, Chevron Corp and others on Thursday began evacuating nonessential personnel from offshore U.S. Gulf of Mexico platforms ahead of a storm expected to enter the Gulf this weekend. The storm brewing in the Caribbean Sea could become a major hurricane and strike the U.S. Gulf Coast by Sunday, the National Hurricane Center said. Hurricanes with winds of up to 111 miles per hour (178 km) are classified as major and can bring devastating damage onshore. "The oil companies are getting way ahead of this storm, which is lending the market some support and offsetting some of the concern about more supply entering the market,"

Oil Futures Climb as Tropical Storm Ida Disrupts GOM Output -- Nearby delivery month oil futures on the New York Mercantile and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange reversed higher in overnight trade on anticipation that Tropical Storm Ida, currently tracking towards Louisiana Coast, disrupts Gulf of Mexico oil production, with forecasts indicating an increased likelihood for the storm to strengthen into a Category 3 hurricane prior to its landfall on Sunday. Near 9:30 a.m. EDT, NYMEX October West Texas Intermediate futures rallied $1.45 or 2% to $68.88 barrel (bbl), and Brent crude for October delivery advanced $1.35 to trade near $72.38 bbl. NYMEX September ULSD gained 1.59cts to $2.0991 gallon and September RBOB futures rallied to $2.2840 gallon. U.S. energy companies on Thursday began shutting down offshore facilities in the Gulf of Mexico and evacuating workers in preparation for the storm. BP, BNP and Shell said they have shut in some production at the offshore oil platforms, while Chevron's production remained at normal levels as of Thursday. Occidental Petroleum and Hess Corp said they are monitoring weather conditions. Meteorologists at DTN Weather forecast a fast-moving storm will likely make landfall across the central Gulf Coast as a Category 3 hurricane, packing winds of up to 111 miles per hour. Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards has declared a state of emergency due to the potentially life-threatening storm surge and called on residents to make necessary preparations. A hurricane watch stretches from Cameron, Louisiana, to the Mississippi-Alabama state line, including the New Orleans metro area. Aside from the developing hurricane, traders also watch for signals of potential policy shift at the Federal Reserve annual symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where Chairman Jerome Powell is set to deliver a keynote address today. Powell may not provide tapering details during his virtual address but could lay out the roadmap for easing the pace of monthly bond purchases before the end of the year. President of Kansas City Federal Reserve Esther George told CNBC Thursday morning that "given the progress we've seen," Fed tapering is "appropriate," though she didn't specify when she thinks it should start. "When you look at the job gains, we saw last month, the month before, you look at the level of inflation right now, I think it would suggest that the level of accommodation we're providing right now is probably not needed in this scenario," she said. "So I would be ready to talk about taper sooner rather than later."

Oil Posts Largest Weekly Gain In Over A Year - Oil advanced as a brewing hurricane shuts Gulf of Mexico crude production while the Federal Reserve reinforced its support to begin tapering stimulus by the end of the year. Futures in New York rose 2% on Friday to post the biggest weekly gain in more than a year. Oil producers in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico have begun shutting production ahead of Hurricane Ida, which may make landfall in the New Orleans area in the next few days as a Category 3 hurricane. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank could begin reducing its monthly bond purchases this year, though it won’t be in a hurry to begin raising interest rates thereafter. The central bank had hinted at such asset tapering plans weeks ago. “Clearly, the hurricane is what the market is focusing on now, at least in the short-term,” . “We are going to be losing supply from refiners and some demand.” Oil has had a volatile August with the fast-spreading delta variant of the virus leading to renewed restrictions on mobility and clouding the outlook for fuel demand. OPEC+ is scheduled to meet next week, and market-watchers surveyed by Bloomberg expect it will ratify another monthly output increase as it revives supplies halted during the pandemic. West Texas Intermediate for October delivery rose $1.32 to settle at $68.74 a barrel in New York. Brent for October settlement gained $1.63 to end the session at $72.70 a barrel. With Ida heading for the U.S., West Texas Intermediate crude’s nearest timespread strengthened. That firming structure comes amid expectations of tighter supplies as production is shut in the Gulf of Mexico. The relative strength in U.S. crude has also narrowed its discount to the global Brent benchmark.

Oil has only done this twice in the past 20 years — and it could forecast a 50% rally - Oil prices could be setting up for a major rally, one strategist says.Though the energy sector has cooled off in recent months, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude's price chart just flashed a rare signal, Miller Tabak's Matt Maley told CNBC's "Trading Nation" on Wednesday."Crude oil has seen what's called a golden cross on its weekly chart," the firm's chief market strategist said.A golden cross occurs when an asset's shorter-term moving average crosses above its longer-term moving average and is broadly seen as a signal of further upside.In oil's case, "that's only happened three times since the beginning of this century and each of those three times has been followed by a very strong further rally in crude oil, anywhere from 20%-50%," Maley said."If oil continues to rally here, energy stocks should continue to bounce as well and I think that's a group where I think people can do really well for the last third of the year."Investors should consider adding some downside protection to their portfolios as the market enters the seasonally difficult September-December trading period, BK Asset Management's Boris Schlossberg said in the same interview."I'd call this the Terminator market. It's always coming back. It refuses to die," Schlossberg said. "But ... I think there is certainly some potential for danger here."With bond yields creeping up as inflationary pressures persist, the odds of a correction in high-valuation stocks are also rising, said Schlossberg, his firm's managing director of FX strategy.

Israel escalates attack on the Palestinians in Gaza -- The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have ramped up their attacks on Gaza, with fighter jets launching strikes on Hamas targets on Monday and Saturday in response to home-made incendiary balloons set afloat from the besieged Palestinian enclave. It marks the heaviest escalation in hostilities since Israel’s 11-day war on Gaza last May that killed more than 250 Palestinians, including at least 66 children and 41 women. Israel’s attacks follow Saturday’s demonstration near Gaza’s border with Israel, when Israeli soldiers fired lives shots and injured at least 41 Palestinians, including two people who were critically injured, one of whom was a 13-year-old boy shot in the head. The IDF said that the Palestinians had shot and critically injured one of its security personnel, a 21-year-old sniper from the Border Police undercover antiterrorism unit. On Monday, Palestinian groups, including Hamas and Islamic Jihad, announced plans to hold a major rally on Wednesday in southern Gaza near the border with Israel. The IDF responded by building up its forces along the heavily fortified border with the Gaza Strip and instructing its officers and soldiers to respond 'more aggressively' to any attempts to breach the border fence or attack soldiers. Hundreds of Palestinians had gathered on Saturday near the border to mark the 52nd anniversary of the arson attack on the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, Islam’s third holiest site. Built on the site of the second Jewish temple destroyed by the Roman Empire 2,000 years ago, it is one of the most contested religious sites in the world. While the attack was carried out by a mentally unstable Christian Australian tourist, there were suspicions that Israel had been actively involved in planning and facilitating the arson attempt. The Mosque has become a symbol of the ongoing violations of the basic rights of Palestinians, including their ability to worship freely, most recently during Ramadan earlier this year, precipitating the tensions that gave rise to Israel’s murderous assault on Gaza. Since Israel’s capture and annexation of Jerusalem’s Old City after the June 1967 Arab-Israeli war, it has become a frequent flashpoint, regularly stormed by Jewish settlers and armed security forces, while worshippers are turned away at the gates and its foundations are being damaged by tunnelling.

UN agencies say aid cannot get into Afghanistan, call for shipments through Kabul airport -- The World Health Organization's (WHO) office for the Eastern Mediterranean region on Sunday called for "immediate and unimpeded access" to send medicine and medical supplies to Afghanistan through an airbridge as commercial flights are down in Kabul. Ahmed Al-Mandhari, WHO Regional Director for Eastern and Mediterranean Region, and George Laryea-Adjei, UNICEF Regional Director for South Asia, released the joint statement on Sunday, calling for countries to support humanitarian efforts in Afghanistan as evacuation efforts continue. “While the main focus over the past days has been major air operations for the evacuation of internationals and vulnerable Afghans, the massive humanitarian needs facing the majority of the population should not - and cannot – be neglected," Al-Mandhari and Laryea-Adjei said. “However, with no commercial aircraft currently permitted to land in Kabul, we have no way to get supplies into the country and to those in need. Other humanitarian agencies are similarly constrained," they added. According to the UN officials, aid supplies in Afghanistan are quickly dwindling and the WHO only has enough resources to meet urgent needs for about another week and a half. More than 500 metric tonnes of WHO supplies are are awaiting delivery in Dubai. They suggested in their statement that evacuation planes flying into Afghanistan carry aid supplies with them to be dropped off as they are evacuating people out of the country.

WHO says its medical supplies in Afghanistan will only last a week - The World Health Organization (WHO) said during an online briefing on Tuesday its current medical supplies in Afghanistan will only last a week amid the chaos of U.S. evacuations and the new Taliban rule over the country. "We rapidly distributed lifesaving supplies to health facilities and partners in Kabul, Kandahar and Kunduz, but WHO now only has enough supplies in country to last for one week. Yesterday 70 percent of these supplies were released to health facilities," WHO regional director Ahmed Al-Mandhari said. The country apparently has 95 percent of its health facilities open despite the turmoil, but some female employees and patients have not returned due to fear regarding how the Taliban are going to treat women’s rights. WHO regional emergency director Richard Brennan told Reuters the agency is working with four countries to secure flights with resources as medical supplies have been delayed due to restrictions at the Kabul airport during the U.S.-led evacuations. "We have had some encouraging signs and encouraging communications, that the Taliban authorities have made it clear that they want the United Nations to stay, that they want the continuity of health services," Brennan said. "We remain cautiously optimistic that we will be able to get our operation back at increasing scale over the coming weeks,” he added. The WHO’s regional office for the Eastern Mediterranean released a statement Sunday calling for the “immediate and unimpeded access to deliver medicines and other lifesaving supplies to millions of people in need of aid.” The office said even before the Taliban takeover and evacuations this past week, Afghanistan was its the third largest humanitarian operation. There are 18 million people who need assistance with no way to get supplies to them, the statement reads. “Conflict, displacement, drought and the COVID-19 pandemic are all contributing to a complex and desperate situation in Afghanistan. Humanitarian agencies need to be supported and facilitated to meet the enormous and growing needs in Afghanistan, and make sure that no one dies unnecessarily due to lack of access to aid,” the office says.

The 2-year-old daughter of an interpreter for an American company was trampled to death as stampedes at Kabul Airport leave at least 7 dead, reports say --At least seven people have been killed at Kabul airport by stampeding crowds, as thousands of panicked Afghans try to flee the country, the British military said on Sunday.Since the Taliban takeover last week, huge crowds of Afghans have lined up outside Kabul airport in scorching temperatures to try and secure a place on an evacuation flight out of the country. Although the British military confirmed seven deaths, eyewitnesses on the ground claim the real figure is much higher.One of those killed was a 2-year-old toddler, who was trampled to death by the surging crowd, according to The New York Times.The toddler was the child of a former interpreter for an American company who was trying to leave Kabul along with her family, the paper reported.When the crowd swelled, the interpreter and her family fell to the ground. She lost sight of her daughter and later found she had been crushed to death."I felt pure terror," the woman told The New York Times. "I couldn't save her."Sky News's Stuart Ramsey described the chaotic scenes as paratroopers pulled people from the crowd and medics rushed "from the next casualty to the next, then the next and the next."Soldiers often sprayed the crowds with hoses in an attempt to cool them down, he said.The Independent's Kim Sengupta reported witnessing several deaths caused by the crush of the crowd and heat at Kabul airport. He said the official number of fatalities was 12 but the real figure was almost certainly a lot higher.

"US Troops Call It World War Z": Shocking New Images Capture 'Post-Apocalyptic' Scenes Outside Kabul Airport - A Russian media correspondent, Murad Gazdiev, arrived at Kabul airport this week to report on the ground and was shocked by the deteriorating conditions and continued spiraling crisis. "We’ve just arrived at Kabul airport. American troops call what is happening here 'World War Z,' referring to the zombie movie starring Brad Pitt. It is clear why," he narrated. "The situation is horrendous. The entire airport is littered with bullet casings and flash-bang grenades," he continued. "Everything, absolutely everything is covered in barbed wire. The entire runway is lined with barbed wire." And there are tragic scenes of desperate Afghan civilians standing outside the airport walls in knee-deep sewage.This as new reports emerge from US officials, and even a pair of congressman who just went to Kabul's international airport on a fact finding mission, that it's looking nearly impossible that US troops will be able to evacuate everyone on Washington's list or who has a visa, including possibly Americans stuck in the capital city, by the Aug.31 deadline. One of the Congressional members who touched down in Kabul airport this week, Democratic Representative Seth Moulton - who served as a Marine and multi-tour Iraq war veteran - said, "To say that today is anything short of a disaster would be dishonest. Worse, it was avoidable." RT News footage showing a chaotic scene and warning shots fired by Taliban "security" militants just outside the airport:"Shooting is ceaseless, 10 minutes don’t pass without gunfire. Either within the airport; American troops scaring away the more daring locals, or shooting near the main entrance, where the Taliban is discouraging would-be refugees."

Covid concerns in Kabul are an afterthought amid evacuation. --At Hamid Karzai International Airport, where thousands of U.S. troops and NATO allies are trying to evacuate citizens and Afghans desperate to flee their country after the Taliban took control of Kabul last week, the coronavirus is an afterthought. The speed, size and scope of the evacuation operation — which came together rapidly as U.S. officials were caught off guard by the Taliban’s swift offensive — have meant that few measures, if any, are in place to help prevent the spread of the disease and its newer, more aggressive variants. There is no testing of the thousands of passengers passing through the base, in what has turned into the final operation of the United States’ nearly 20-year-old war in Afghanistan. Social distancing is nonexistent as hundreds of Afghans are ferried in from the airport’s gates, held in crowded parking lots or tents and processed in packed terminals. The U.S. military cargo aircraft responsible for carrying a large number of Afghan refugees to bases in the Middle East and Europe are packed with 300 to 400 passengers at a time who sit practically knee-to-back on the floor. Coronavirus testing usually takes place at American bases outside Afghanistan, where passengers are tested and isolated if found to be positive. Before the government of Afghanistan collapsed, its ministry of public health had reported a third wave of coronavirus infections in the country, with a record number of positive cases and deaths. But coronavirus testing in the country has been unreliable and inconsistent since the start of the pandemic, as testing ability was limited or unavailable in rural areas. The current situation is part of a broader humanitarian and medical issue facing Afghans on top of the security crisis. Humanitarian and medical aid has been scarce in the past week, with the World Health Organization and other aid agencies unable to fly supplies into the airport while it is overwhelmed by the evacuation effort. “Conflict, displacement, drought and the Covid-19 pandemic are all contributing to a complex and desperate situation in Afghanistan,” the W.H.O. said in a statement.

Israel's PM Bennett Says He Will Continue Covert Attacks Against Iran -- A few days ahead of his meeting with President Biden, Israel’s new Prime Minister Naftali Bennett spoke with The New York Times and said he will continue covert attacks against Iran and will oppose any US efforts to revive the nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA.Israel has a long history of taking covert action against Iran, but Israeli leaders usually aren’t so candid about it. The Times report said that Bennett plans to present Biden with a new "strategic vision" for Iran that includes more "clandestine attacks" on Iran, including what Bennett referred to as "the gray-area stuff."One of Israel’s recent attacks on Iran targeted the Natanz nuclear facility in April. It coincided with the start of indirect negotiations between the US and Iran to revive the JCPOA and was a clear effort by the Israelis to sabotage the talks.Another aspect of Bennett’s vision is for Israel to strengthen ties with Arab countries in the region that oppose Iran. Forming an anti-Iran coalition was part of the reason for the Trump administration-brokered Abraham Accords that led to Israel normalizing with some Arab countries, including the UAE and Bahrain."What we need to do, and what we are doing, is forming a regional coalition of reasonable Arab countries, together with us, that will fend off and block this expansion and this desire for domination [by Iran]," Bennett said.Bennett favors many of the same policies as his predecessor Benjamin Netanyahu, but he wants to take a different approach. Netanyahu publicly clashed with the Obama administration when the JCPOA was negotiated in 2015, which Bennett hopes to avoid.

Surge in COVID deaths adds to pressure on Iran’s clerical regime --Saturday saw Iran’s highest single-day COVID-19 death toll of the pandemic, as 684 people succumbed to the disease and more than 36,400 new cases were confirmed. This latest surge in infections, driven by the highly contagious delta variant, is Iran's fifth, bringing the total number of cases to more than 4.5 million and deaths to 102,000, numbers even Iran’s health officials admit is an underestimate of the real toll. Worse is yet to come, with deputy health minister Iraj Harirchi acknowledging, “Infections and hospitalization numbers have stabilized in 14 provinces... but fatalities are expected to be on a relatively rising trajectory in coming days.” One of the top doctors in Mashhad, Iran’s second largest city, declared that such is the gravity of the situation that no families in the city are without a patient or someone who has died in the pandemic. Without citing statistics, he said infections and deaths “are very high” and younger people are dying. Video clips of hospitals full of patients lying on the ground or in courtyards and long lines at pharmacies are circulating widely. By far the worst affected country in the Middle East, Iran has suffered decades of US sanctions that have had a devastating impact on its health care system, preventing access to medicines and supplies to treat coronavirus cases, cancer patients, and other deadly diseases. But fraud, mismanagement and profiteering by Iran’s pharmaceutical companies are widespread, with multiple reports of the hoarding and stockpiling of vital medical supplies. Like its counterparts internationally, the Iranian government has put profits before lives and shunned comprehensive measures that would ensure the closure of all non-essential work, schools and universities. Instead, it has imposed short-term, piecemeal measures that most recently have included a ban on private travel between provinces until August 27 and a five-day closure of government buildings, banks and non-essential shops that ended Saturday. Only 5.4 million of Iran’s 85 million population have been fully vaccinated, with more than 16.3 million people awaiting their second jab. Vaccination centres are swamped with kilometre-long lines of people queuing for their jabs, largely imported from China, Russia, India, Cuba, Japan and via the global COVAX initiative. Some of these vaccines may be less effective against the delta variant. A study by the Statistics and Information Technology Management Center found that 2,072 Iranians out of the 2.85 million fully vaccinated at the time of the study had died, a far higher rate than elsewhere.

Delta variant starts to hit global economy -- There are growing indications that the uncontrolled spread of the Delta variant of the coronavirus is having a significant impact on the global economy, due to shortages in the production of computer chips. Last week the supply chain problems afflicting a range of companies was highlighted by the announcement by Toyota, the world’s largest carmaker, that it would cut its production for September by 40 percent. It will now produce 540,000 vehicles for the month as compared to the original plan of 900,000. The company has been hit by a surge of COVID-19 cases in Vietnam and Malaysia which has contributed to an already existing computer chip shortage as well as affecting the supply of other vehicle parts. The company is also being impacted by the rise of cases in Thailand, the location of its largest manufacturing hub in Southeast Asia. Announcing the decision, Kazunari Kumakura, the company’s global procurement chief, said: “It became difficult to secure the necessary volume for several parts, which led to this sudden and large-scale production cut.” Until now Toyota has been able to sustain production because of its build-up of inventories. Other car companies, including Ford and General Motors are also being affected by supply chain problems and have announced reductions in output. Ford said it was halting the assembly of a pick-up truck for a week and GM has announced downtime at production lines. The Chinese car firm Geely has also warned of “uncertainty” over production because of the chip shortage and Jaguar Land Rover halved its sales forecast last month for the same reason. The Toyota decision will hit almost all its production facilities in Japan, where 27 production lines will be disrupted. Plants in North America and China will each cut production by 80,000 vehicles and production in Europe will be reduced by 40,000. The shortage of chips is by no means the only problem confronting the world economy. There is growing evidence that the Chinese economy, which rebounded last year after effective measures were taken to deal with the pandemic, has started to slow. As the Financial Times (FT) reported last week, the latest data coming from China “have suggested that the increase in industrial production and other key gauges has been decelerating in the latter summer months.” One of the most significant indicators of this process is the fall in commodity prices, particularly iron ore. Last Thursday, its spot price dropped by close to 15 percent, continuing a sharp downward trend over the last three months. At start of the year the price of iron ore was $160 per tonne. It peaked at $230 a tonne in May. Since then, it has fallen by 44 percent and is now back down below $160. Some of the fall may have been due to an outbreak of the Delta variant in China. But that has now been brought under control and the fall in the iron ore price is being attributed to broader issues.

The World Economy’s Supply Chain Problem Keeps Getting Worse - A supply chain crunch that was meant to be temporary now looks like it will last well into next year as the surging delta variant upends factory production in Asia and disrupts shipping, posing more shocks to the world economy. Manufacturers reeling from shortages of key components and higher raw material and energy costs are being forced into bidding wars to get space on vessels, pushing freight rates to records and prompting some exporters to raise prices or simply cancel shipments altogether. “We can’t get enough components, we can’t get containers, costs have been driven up tremendously,” said Christopher Tse, chief executive officer of Hong Kong-based Musical Electronics Ltd., which makes consumer products from Bluetooth speakers to Rubik’s Cubes. Tse said the cost of magnets used in the puzzle toy have risen by about 50% since March, increasing the production cost by about 7%. “I don’t know if we can make money from Rubik’s Cubes because prices keep changing.” China’s determination to stamp out Covid has meant even a small number of cases can cause major disruptions to trade. This month the government temporarily closed part of the world’s third-busiest container port at Ningbo for two weeks after a single dockworker was found to have the delta variant. Earlier this year, wharves in Shenzhen were idled after the discovery of a handful of coronavirus cases. “Port congestion and a shortage of container shipping capacity may last into the fourth quarter or even mid-2022,” said Hsieh Huey-chuan, president of Taiwan-based Evergreen Marine Corp., the world’s seventh-biggest container liner, at an investor briefing on Aug. 20. “If the pandemic cannot be effectively contained, port congestion may become a new normal.” The cost of sending a container from Asia to Europe is about 10 times higher than in May 2020, while the cost from Shanghai to Los Angeles has grown more than sixfold, according to the Drewry World Container Index. The global supply chain has become so fragile that a single, small accident “could easily have its effects compounded,” HSBC Holdings Plc. said in a note.

Bank of Korea Raises Rate After 15 Months at Record Low - South Korea’s central bank raised its base interest rate on Thursday after 15 months of keeping it at a record low, signaling it would further dial back its easy-money policy amid an economic recovery. The rate increase makes the Bank of Korea the first major central bank in Asia to start withdrawing stimulus measures that were put in place because of the pandemic. The bank increased the benchmark seven-day repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 0.75% from its historically low 0.50% that had been in place since May 2020. BOK Gov. Lee Ju-yeol said the decision wasn’t unanimous, with one dissenting board member calling for holding the rate steady. He said he expects robust exports and progress in the country’s vaccine rollout to withstand the challenge posed by the resurgence in new Covid-19 cases. The bank’s policy board said in a statement that it “will gradually adjust the degree of monetary policy accommodation as the Korean economy is expected to continue its sound growth” amid higher inflationary pressure. The bank’s decision to scale back policy support was also viewed as aiming to curb surging household debt and cool red-hot property prices in the country even if a resurgence in Covid-19 cases is a challenge to economic recovery. Of the 34 economists and market analysts polled by The Wall Street Journal ahead of the decision, 18 had forecast a rate increase in August, while 16 had expected the bank to delay it until October or November. The bank sees the South Korean economy still recovering from the pandemic, on brisk exports and progress in vaccine rollouts. The central bank also said Thursday that it expects the country’s gross domestic product to expand 4.0% this year, unchanged from its upgraded outlook in May. It also expects inflation to average 2.1%, faster than its earlier estimate of 1.8% for 2021. The pandemic-hit South Korean economy shrank 0.9% in 2020.

 Malaysian government implodes with COVID-19 epidemic out of control - Amid an accelerating COVID-19 epidemic and deteriorating economy, Malaysia’s Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin resigned last Monday. He was replaced on Friday by Ismail Sabri Yaakob, a member of the right-wing United Malays National Organisation and deputy prime minister in the previous government. Ismail is the country’s third prime minister in less than four years. His installation will do nothing to end the political turmoil and instability that followed the defeat of the UMNO-led coalition at the 2018 national election. UMNO had been in power continuously since formal independence from Britain in 1957, through a gerrymander, autocratic methods of rule and domination of the media and state apparatus. UMNO was defeated in 2018 by an electoral alliance between an opposition coalition led by Anwar Ibrahim and the United Malaysian Indigenous Party (Bersatu), a UMNO breakaway led by former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad. In 1998, amid the Asian financial crisis and bitter disagreements over economic policy, Mahathir sacked Anwar as finance minister, expelled him from UMNO then jailed him on trumped-up charges. As part of the opportunist electoral arrangement between the two political enemies, Mahathir was installed as prime minister with Anwar due to take over in 2020. The political tensions within the ruling coalition, which were evident from the start, led to its collapse as the time for Anwar’s installation as prime minister approached. In March 2020, Muhyiddin Yassin, who had served as interior minister, split from the coalition with most Bersatu members, and cobbled together a government with the support of UMNO and the Islamist Parti Islam se-Malaysia (PAS). UMNO’s defeat in 2018 had been the result of widespread popular discontent over social inequality, entrenched corruption, and autocratic methods of rule. That opposition has only intensified as a result of the Muhyiddin government’s gross mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Malaysia now has one of the highest infection rates and deaths per capita in the world. Daily new infections have more than doubled since June when a partial lockdown was imposed and hit a record 23,564 last Friday, bringing the country’s total to over 1.5 million cases. The death toll stands at more than 13,000.

Rogue truckies vow to block every major highway into every state during radical anti-lockdown strike - as they urge Aussies to 'stock up on groceries' - -Rogue truck drivers are reportedly plotting to shut down major highways across Australia to protest against Covid lockdowns.One driver has issued a warning in a video circulating online that truck drivers are 'planning to shut down the country' to 'remove the s*** government'. He said supply chains would soon be interrupted and urged Aussies to stock up on groceries to get them through the next couple of weeks. A GoFundMe page has since been launched to support the truckies financially as they prepare to strike from 9am on Tuesday August 31, which will involve 'blocking every highway entering into every state at the same time'. 'It's on. The truckies are doing it. The truckies are going to shut down the country,' the man says in the video. 'What that means is you need to go shopping now, get what you can for the next week or two, load your fridge, freezers.' 'The truckies are coming and they are going to pull this country down and we are all going to do it together and remove this s*** government. The man says truck drivers have been in discussion with people from around 'the world' and are working with war veterans to carry out the scheme. The man's social media page is filled with anti-vax posts, including bogus claims the vaccine is a conspiracy developed between America and China to 'poison' people. 'The truckies are in, the VETS are in, I'm in. I'm willing to go to jail to save my country and children,' he says. 'Every government who bought into Pfizer, they know it is poison. 'If you want to do this, you have got to do this together as one.' The man did not reveal how many truck drivers were involved in the demonstration.

Covid-19: French Polynesia closes schools, tightens lockdown for two weeks - Schools in French Polynesia will be closed from Monday because of the Covid-19 outbreak, the Pacific territory's president has announced, as part of a two-week tightening of the lockdown."We have decided to limit as much as possible [...] the movements of the population in the most affected areas" for "two weeks from Monday", said High Commissioner Dominique Sorain on Friday (Saturday in Paris), while the Covid-19 incidence rate has reached 2,800 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in Polynesia, the highest rate in France.These restrictions will concern the Windward Islands and the Leeward Islands, the most populated archipelagos of Polynesia where "the epidemic is progressing the most," added Sorain."The ban on movement is becoming the rule for the time being", with an obligation to provide proof of a series of exemptions: going to work and training, getting medical treatment or vaccinations, assisting a vulnerable person or making essential purchases.Shops selling non-essential goods, leisure activities, restaurants and bars "will have to temporarily cease their activity" and "leisure travel will be temporarily suspended", he added.As for the curfew, which used to run from 9pm to 4am, it will be brought forward to start at 8pm throughout French Polynesia.The lockdown only during the weekend is maintained on the islands concerned in Tuamotu Gambier, the Marquesas and the Australs are not concerned.Concerning schools, "we will close our primary and secondary schools, while ensuring the educational continuity of our children in primary and secondary schools, from Monday," said the territory's president Edouard Fritch. "The spread of the Delta virus in our schools over the last two days requires a strong reaction on our part," he added, noting that nearly 40% of students in primary schools and nearly 30% in secondary schools were absent. Students in the French overseas territory started school a fortnight ago, but many schools and colleges have

Canada’s governments press ahead with school reopenings as fourth COVID-19 wave accelerates - Schools across Canada are scheduled to reopen to full in-person learning over the next two weeks, even as the fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic spikes, driven by the highly transmissible and deadlier Delta variant. Even before school doors open, COVID-19 infections have risen sharply in recent weeks. On Wednesday, Canada recorded over 3,300 new infections for the first time since the end of the third wave last May. Alberta alone recorded more than 1,000 new cases. Craig Jenne, Canada Research Chair in infectious diseases at the University of Calgary, painted a bleak picture of the weeks and months ahead in an interview with CTV. “If you look back to last year’s cases,” said Jenne, “they really didn’t start rising sharply until we got into September with people back indoors at school. This year, the cases really have started to go up in a number of places—Alberta, Ontario and British Columbia in early August. Basically the wave has a month head start.” Canada was ravaged by second and third pandemic waves that claimed the lives of more than 16,000 people and sickened more than 1 million others. Schools were major vectors of transmission in both the second wave, which peaked in late December 2020 and early January 2021, and the third, which peaked in late April and early May. “We can’t let this wave get out of control,” added Jenne, “because the more cases there are, the more hospitalizations, the more ICU [admissions] and tragically, the more deaths we will see this fall.” Neither the federal Liberal nor the provincial governments have any intention of heeding this advice, or the mountain of evidence from other countries that shows the Delta variant is more dangerous for children. They are determined to fully reopen schools for in-class instruction, even while eliminating many of the inadequate “mitigation measures” they instituted last year, like cohort bubbles. The school reopening drive is not being done for the sake of children, whose education governments have systematically undermined through decades of budget cuts. Rather, the capitalist politicians want to herd children into schools so that their parents can go to work generating profits for Canada’s banks and corporations. With few exceptions, students from Kindergarten to Grade 12 will be expected to sit in classes numbering upwards of 30 children, many in rooms without proper ventilation and in some cases even windows. Virtually all provinces had announced they were scrapping mandatory masking in the classroom. But facing a public outcry, as cases have steadily mounted and public health officials have conceded Canada is in its fourth pandemic wave, several provinces, including Quebec, have had to reverse themselves at the last minute.

The Swedish government is being obligated to return roughly $1.5 million or (£1 million) worth of bitcoin to a drug dealer after the value of the digital asset appreciated while he was in custody, according to a report by Telegraph.The unusual turn of events was caused by the fluctuating price of the world's largest cryptocurrency.Two years ago, when the Swedish Enforcement Authority seized 36 bitcoins from the drug dealer, the coins were cumulatively worth around $136,000, according toTelegraph. This puts each bitcoin at roughly $3,700 per piece.At that time, Prosecutor Tove Kullberg successfully argued in court that the drug dealer should be stripped off of his illegally earned bitcoin. Kullberg, however, used the monetary equivalent to make her case at the time, not anticipating the pace at which bitcoin's value would grow.As of August 20, bitcoin was trading around $48,978 per coin. The asset has surged 66% year-to-date and 313% in the past 12 months. The value of the dealer's 36 bitcoins from two years ago is equivalent to just three bitcoins now.When the dealer was released, The Telegraph reported, the authorities were going to auction off all 36 of their coins, but Kullberg's arguments during the prosecution meant the state had only seized three coins worth.Based on the prosecution, the government had to return 33 bitcoins - worth roughly $1.6 million as of publishing - despite knowing full well the illegal nature of where the funds came from.Kullberg lamented this outcome, telling Swedish Radio that it was "unfortunate in many ways.""The lesson to be learned from this is to keep the value in bitcoin, that the profit from the crime should be 36 bitcoin, regardless of what value bitcoin has at the time," Kullberg said. "It has led to consequences I was not able to foresee at the time."

Spain’s Supreme Court Rules Against Using Vaccine Passports to Restrict Access to Public Spaces Spain’s Supreme Court made waves last week by becoming the first judicial authority in Europeto rule against the use of covid passports to restrict access to public spaces — specifically hospitality businesses (bars, restaurants and nightclubs). It is not the first Spanish court to come out against vaccine passports but it is the most important. So far, only five of Spain’s 17 autonomous regions – the Canary Islands, Ceuta and Melilla, Andalusia, Cantabria and Galicia – have proposed using vaccine passports to restrict access to public spaces. And all have been rejected by local judges.The EU’s Green Pass is a one-piece QR-code document that can be issued to a traveller in both paper and digital format. It is intended to prove that the holder has either received one of the four vaccines authorised by the European Medicine Agency (BioNTech-Pfizer’s, Moderna’s, AztraZeneca’s and Johnson &Johnson’s), has tested negative for Covid-19 in the last 48 hours or has been infected with Covid in the last six months and therefore has natural immunity. However, some countries such as France have chosen only to allow entry to travellers that are fully vaccinated.Many government are also using the documents to limit access for unvaccinated citizens to public spaces and services with their own countries. But so far Spanish judges have challenged this trend, on the grounds that it would infringe on certain constitutionally recognised individual rights, such as the right to physical integrity and privacy, while also having limited impact on public health. The Supreme Courts of Andalusia and Ceuta and Melilla said the measures were also discriminatory. When the Supreme Court of Andalusia sided with local hospitality businesses in their appeal against the region’s proposed vaccine passport measures, the regional authority took the case to the national Supreme Court. And lost. Economic considerations may have also played a part in the courts’ decision. Spain’s hospitality sector generates a huge amount of money and a huge number of jobs, especially during the peak tourist season (i.e., right now). The sector has already been through the grinder of last year’s three-month national lockdown as well as sporadic regional lockdowns. Even with the introduction of vaccine passports, overseas visitors continue to arrive in dribs and drabs. As was the case last year, it’s domestic demand that is keeping many businesses alive. And limiting that demand is likely to create even more economic pain.

Spain proceeds with school reopenings despite high infection rates - Though over 10,000 coronavirus cases are recorded in Spain every day, the Socialist Party (PSOE)-Podemos government plans to send all children back to in-person education at the start of September. The decision to fully reopen schools, even as the virus still circulates widely, poses immense dangers to children, educators and parents across Spain and internationally. The start of the new school term last autumn precipitated an enormous upsurge in infections and deaths. Before schools even reopen, however, average daily cases this year are now more than double what they were a year ago. Soaring infection rates are hitting younger age groups particularly hard. Among school-aged children ages 12 to 19, the 14-day incidence rate exceeds 600 per 100,000 people. In five of Spain’s 17 regions, this measure surpasses 1,000 per 100,000, meaning more than 1 percent of young people in these areas is suffering from COVID-19. These figures are significantly higher than the rate for the population as a whole, which stands at a still dangerously high 292 per 100,000. Though official case numbers have fallen for the last several weeks, an average of around 10,000 people are still being infected every day. Deaths are continuing to climb. Last Friday closed with the highest weekly deaths in Spain’s fifth wave, with 660 deaths. According to the Instituto de Salud Carlos III, in the three weeks from July 26 to August 15, 82,587 children and adolescents aged between 5 and 19 were infected with the virus. Using a recent study published in The Lancet Child & Adolescent Health showing that around 4.4 percent of children aged 5 to 17 infected with coronavirus contract Long COVID, this amounts to roughly 3,600 of them suffering persistent COVID. Under these conditions, the PSOE-Podemos government’s reckless reopening of schools in only two weeks endangers the lives of tens of thousands of children. It is not the result of a mistaken policy, but part of an international drive based on the policy of the capitalist class to force parents back to work in unsafe conditions to further extract profits from the working class and finance skyrocketing corporate and bank bailouts. Sending students back to school last year led to three new waves of infection. In June last year, Prime Minister Sánchez made the now-infamous statement: “We have defeated the virus.” At that time, excess deaths due to the pandemic stood at 48,000. Over the following year, as the PSOE-Podemos government reopened schools in September, over 52,000 people would die needlessly. The colossal surge led to a quarter million infections each day last January.

As classrooms reopen in Britain: Covid cases pass 6.5 million mark, with deaths over 100 a day - Just five weeks after the ending of Covid safety restrictions on July 19, Covid cases and deaths are rising sharply in Britain. Public Health England data for the seven days to August 19 found that two thirds of England’s local authority areas saw a week-on-week rise in Covid infection rates. Of England’s 312 local authority areas, 210 (67 percent) saw a rise in infections. The new cases sent the total number infected with Covid past 6.5 million since the start of the pandemic—almost a tenth of the population. Schools across the UK are set to return, with scientists warning this will result in a surge in cases and illness. Schools returned in Scotland last week, with evidence already emerging that they are fuelling a surge in Covid cases. On Wednesday, the UK recorded 149 Covid-19 deaths and a further 35,847 cases. This followed the 174 deaths reported Tuesday. More than 100 deaths a day on average are due to Covid. The 743 deaths recorded in the last seven days are an increase of 14 percent on the previous week. This week’s cases already stand at just short of 100,000. In the last seven days 236,796 new cases were recorded, up 14 percent on the previous week. Total deaths stand officially at 132,003 according to the government’s manipulated figures. But when Covid is listed as a cause of death on death certificates the figure is now 155,000, an increase of more than 17 percent. Hospitalisations are on the increase. On August 21, the last date for which data is available, 859 patients were admitted to hospital with Covid, taking the seven-day total to 6,172—up nearly 10 percent on the week prior. Nearly 1,000 people (942) are in hospital classified as in a serious/critical condition. On Wednesday, Scotland recorded a record high of 5,021 new cases—the first time daily cases have passed 5,000. This topped the previous record of 4,323 hit 24 hours earlier, itself an increase on the record 4,234 daily cases reached earlier this summer. At a Covid briefing Tuesday, Scottish National Party First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, who has marched in lockstep with Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative government in abandoning safety measures, declared, “New cases in Scotland have more than doubled over the past week, and that is one of the sharpest rises we have experienced at any point during the pandemic.” She said of the grave situation resulting from the herd immunity agenda her government has overseen, “If this surge continues and accelerates and we start to see evidence of substantial increase in serious illness, we cannot completely rule out having to reimpose some restrictions.” On Wednesday, SNP deputy first minister, John Swinney, was forced to acknowledged that the return to classrooms beginning the week of August 16 was a factor in the surge in cases. Of the new cases, the under-19s age group accounts for a third. School children are entirely unvaccinated, with just 42 percent of 16 and 17-year-olds in Scotland having had their first dose of a vaccine. Swinney said, “Undoubtedly the gathering of people together in schools will have fuelled that to some extent, and you can see that in the proportion of younger people who are testing positive.'