Fed will raise rates next week, but Powell remarks may matter most - The week ahead may all come down to what Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has to say at 2:30 p.m. ET Wednesday. Powell briefs the press following the central bank's two-day meeting. The Fed is widely expected to raise its fed funds target rate range by a half percentage point, but hot May inflation data has made markets nervous about whether policymakers could be even more aggressive or forecast a faster pace of future rate hikes. The Fed will release new economic and interest rate forecasts at 2 p.m. But it's whatever Powell says about summer and autumn rate hikes that could help set the course for turbulent financial markets. Stocks and bonds have been volatile on investor fears that inflation may not be peaking, and that the rate hikes could cause a recession.. "I think really, the key thing is what Powell talks about in the conference and does he give anything that sounds like firm guidance for September," said Michael Schumacher, head of macro strategy at Wells Fargo. "If he does, he would only do it if he was going to be hawkish, and if he doesn't, people will view it as dovish." Schumacher said the fed funds futures market was reflecting a 56 basis point hike for Wednesday. A basis point equals 0.01%. After Friday's much hotter-than-expected consumer price index for May, stocks cratered. For the week, the S&P 500 was down 5.1%. The index closed Friday at 3,900, off 2.9%. "The market wants some clear and convincing evidence that the Fed can pull this off without starting a recession," said Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets. She said the market will take its cues from the economic data. "Maybe you're stuck in purgatory for awhile." Friday's inflation report was a negative catalyst for markets that were already pricing in worries about hot inflation and recession fears. CPI rose 8.6% year over year, well above the 8.3% expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones. That also added fuel to the debate about whether the Fed will consider a 75 basis point rate hike and continue at a more aggressive pace. Both Barclays and Jefferies changed their forecasts Friday to include a 75 basis point hike for Wednesday, though other economists still expect a half point. Goldman Sachs economists Friday revised their forecast to include a half-point increase in September, on top of a half-point hike Wednesday and another in July. JP Morgan economists expect Fed officials will provide new interest rate forecasts that reflect a faster pace of policy tightening, but they still see a half-point increase Wednesday. They expect the Fed's median forecast for interest rates will show the fed funds rate at 2.625% at year-end, well above a forecast of 1.875% in March.
Inflation News Keeps Worsening as White House Points to the Fed - -- The White House’s argument that policy makers are effectively handling the cost-of-living surge was dramatically punctured Friday morning, as inflation unexpectedly hit a fresh 40-year high and consumer sentiment tumbled to a record low. The Biden administration has highlighted its historic release of strategic petroleum reserves and its work with nation’s ports to address supply bottlenecks -- Biden himself will visit port facilities in Los Angeles Friday. The president and his team also have argued the US is confronting inflation in a strong position, with low unemployment. But American households don’t see it that way. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index hit the lowest in records dating back to 1980, data showed Friday. That followed a government report showing consumer prices leapt 8.6% in the year to May, the most in 40 years. Investors reacted by dumping stocks, with the S&P 500 down almost 3% midday. While the White House stopped labeling inflation as “transitory” months ago, the data show that the price surge has yet to peak -- raising the risk of a recession. It’s disastrous news for Democrats facing the loss of control of Congress in November elections. The administration has turned to emphasizing the Federal Reserve’s role in attempting to bring prices under control, with Biden meeting with Chair Jerome Powell at the White House last month. That narrative resumed on Friday. “What the numbers today underscore is what the president has been saying and what we are focused on -- which is fighting inflation has got to be our top economic priority,” Brian Deese, the director of the National Economic Council said on Friday on Bloomberg TV. “The Fed has the tools that it needs, and we are giving them the space that it needs to operate.” One administration official conceded Friday’s inflation numbers were bad. Privately, inflation has been coloring the decision-making of the Biden team for weeks, said one person familiar with the internal deliberations. Aides have been loath to make decisions on agenda items like forgiving student loan debt, or lifting Trump-era tariffs on China -- either for fear it will add to the accelerating inflation, or hand Republicans another taking point about Biden’s handling of the economy, said a the person familiar with the discussions. In poll after poll, voters have called inflation and the economy the most pressing issues facing the country. In a recent Wall Street Journal-NORC poll, 83% of those surveyed called the economy poor or not-so-good, with 35% saying they weren’t satisfied with their own financial situations. The University of Michigan’s preliminary index for June slid to 50.2, below all the forecasts in Bloomberg’s survey, thanks to fears of inflation. Voters tend to hold the party in power responsible for any weaknesses in the economy. The administration is searching for any and all new ideas to try to bring down prices, especially for energy. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen cautioned on Thursday that gasoline prices could rise further.
'Ugly' inflation report could put Fed rate hike of 75-basis points on the table - The dismal May inflation report has some Wall Street economists betting that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 75-basis points in June or July as policymakers try to tame runaway consumer prices.A majority of traders are already pricing in an 80% chance of a half-point rate increase during the Fed's June meeting, according to the CME Group, which tracks trading. Another 20% of traders think the Fed will move even more aggressively with a 75-basis point increase, the first since 1994.Odds for a super-sized rate hike are even higher in July, with more than 50% of traders penciling in a 75-basis point hike. The new projections come on the heels of a scorching hot Labor Department reportthat showed the consumer price index, a broad measure of the price for everyday goods, including gasoline, groceries and rents, rose 8.6% in May from a year ago, faster than expected. Prices jumped 1% in the one-month period from April. It marks the fastest pace of Inflation since December 1981. The latest inflation data also prompted Barclays economists to update their forecast, projecting a 75-basis point hike at the Fed's policy-setting meeting that is slated to take place next week."The U.S. central bank now has good reason to surprise markets by hiking more aggressively than expected in June," the strategists, led by Jonathan Millar, wrote in a note Friday. "We realize it is a close call and that it could play out in either June or July. But we are changing our forecast to call for a 75-basis point hike on June 15."
Fed Data Shows a Half Century of Moderate Growth in the Fed’s Balance Sheet through Two World Wars – Then a Seismic Explosion Under Bernanke, Yellen and Powell --By Pam Martens and Russ Martens:Last month the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released its 2021 annual report from its “Markets Group.” That’s the group that operates a trading floor (complete with speed dials to the trading houses on Wall Street) at the New York Fed, located not far from the New York Stock Exchange, as well as another trading floor on the premises of the Chicago Fed, which is not far from the futures exchanges in Chicago. That report showed that despite all of the recent talk about the Fed dramatically shrinking its balance sheet from its current size of $8.9 trillion, the internal Federal Reserve plan for the balance sheet is actually this: “After declining by about $2.5 trillion from the peak size reached in the first half of 2022, the portfolio stops declining in mid-2025, at which point it is held constant at $5.9 trillion.” It is thereafter projected to start growing again in line with GDP. (See page 47 of the report at this link.)The charts above show that the Federal Reserve was able to get through World War I, the Great Depression, World War II, the Vietnam War and the stagflation of the 1970s, without an explosion in its balance sheet. But since Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell have, in turn, sat at the helm of the Federal Reserve, there has been unprecedented growth in the Fed’s Balance Sheet.For example, from June 1960 to August 1990, the Fed’s balance sheet increased from $53 billion to $309 billion – an increase of 483 percent in 30 years. But during the tenures of Bernanke, Yellen and Powell, the Fed’s balance sheet has exploded from $880 billion in May 2008 to $8.9 trillion in May of 2022 – an increase of 911 percent in just 14 years.There are a number of factors to explain this unprecedented growth in the Fed’s balance sheet. Chief among them are the following:The Federal Reserve Board of Governors has outsourced its open market operations to the New York Fed, which is, literally, owned by a handful of Wall Street megabanks. (See related articles below.)Congress has failed to separate the giant federally-insured banks from the Wall Street casino (trading houses), by restoring the Glass-Steagall Act. This lack of Congressional action has led to the perpetual giant bailouts of Wall Street banks, which have exploded the Fed’s balance sheet through so-called Quantitative Easing (a/k/a “bailout”) measures.The advent of the 401(k) plan which incentivizes U.S. workers to save for retirement through investments in the stock market (or to a much smaller extent, the bond market). This removes much of the public outcry to Congress when the Fed bails out Wall Street because tens of millions of workers feel that their retirement savings are also being bailed out. To fully grasp this concept, see our 2008 report on the “ownership society.” (Unknown to the average American, the top 10 percent of the wealthiest households in America own the vast majority of the stock market.)
Toomey backs Barr ahead of committee vote -Michael Barr, the White House’s pick for vice chair for supervision for the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, will face a confirmation vote in the Senate Banking Committee today, and his passage is all but assured. Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa., the ranking Republican on the committee, said he would support Barr in a vote this afternoon, likely giving the former Treasury official a clear path to advance to a Senate-wide confirmation vote. In a statement released Tuesday evening, Toomey called Barr “well qualified” for the position based on his prior work as Assistant Secretary for FInancial Institutions at the Treasury Department. Now an administrator at the University of Michigan, Barr was instrumental in crafting key provisions of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Act.
Senate Banking Committee greenlights Barr as top Fed regulator - — Michael Barr, the White House’s pick for the top regulatory position at the Federal Reserve, sailed through the Senate Banking Committee’s approval process by a vote of 17-7 Wednesday afternoon. Five Republicans on the committee, Sens. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, Tim Scott of South Carolina, Mike Rounds of South Dakota, Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming and Jerry Moran of Kansas, joined the 12 Democrats in supporting Barr, who was tapped by President Biden in April to serve as the Federal Reserve Board of Governors’ next vice chair for supervision. Former Treasury official and University of Michigan administrator Michael Barr, center, had his nomination to serve as the Federal Reserve's vice chair or supervision pass out of the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday afternoon by a 17-7 vote. Along with those Republicans, Barr has also secured the support of centrist Democrats who have broken from the party on nominees and policy objectives in the past. Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., who effectively killed the nomination of Sarah Bloom Raskin, Biden’s first pick for the Fed’s chief regulator, gave his blessing last month. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona joined her fellow Democrats in voting for Barr in the committee.
Three-quarters of CFOs expecting recession in first half of 2023: survey -More than three-quarters of chief financial officers said that they expect the U.S. will go through a recession during the first half of next year, according to a new CNBC–CFO Council survey.The survey, published on Thursday, found that 77 percent of respondents said the country will experience a recession in the first half of 2023 due to the ongoing issue of inflation. None of the CFOs who participated in the survey predicted that the recession will happen during the second half of 2023, noting that the economy will recover by then. The majority of the CFO respondents also said that they expect the Dow Jones Industrial Average to fall below 30,000 points before reaching a new high, representing a 9 percent fall from its current level, according to CNBC. Thirty-six percent of the CFO respondents also said they plan to increase their spending over the next year, while 18 percent of the respondents said they plan to decrease their overall spending. Meanwhile, 46 percent of respondents said they plan to maintain their spending limits. Fifty-four percent of respondents also said that their company’s staff will increase over the next 12 months, while 18 percent of those surveyed said they anticipate a decrease in their company’s staff, CNBC noted. The latest survey comes as inflation has become a major problem in the U.S., leading to soaring prices at the gas pump as well as retailers.
Q2 GDP Forecasts: Close to 3.0% From BofA: We revised down our 2Q qoq saar growth from 3.0% to 2.5%. [June 10 estimate] From Goldman: We left our Q2 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +3.0% (qoq ar). [June 7 estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is 0.9 percent on June 8, unchanged from June 7 after rounding. [June 8 estimate]
“The Michigan Index indicates that we are already in an oil shock recession” - by Menzie Chinn -That’s a comment by a reader. The index is indeed correlated with recessions, but not necessarily with oil shock recessions only, nor is it always an indicator of a recession. Figure 1: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (blue), linear trend (red). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: University of Michigan via FRED, NBER, and author’s calculations. Note that the indicator was lower in August 2011, but — as pgl noted — no recession occurred.As for whether sentiment predicts recessions, see this post. The evidence that sentiment is a leading — as opposed to concurrent — is weaker.
Four High Frequency Indicators for the Economy --These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. It is interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic subsides. Note: Apple has discontinued "Apple mobility", and restaurant traffic is mostly back to normal. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of June 5th. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. The 7-day average is down 12.4% from the same day in 2019 87.6% of 2019). (Dashed line) Air travel has been moving sideways over the last three months, off about 10% from 2019. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through June 2nd. Movie ticket sales were at $284 million last week, up about 15% from the median for the week - due primarily to the release of Top Gun. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. This data is through May 28th. The occupancy rate was up 3.2% compared to the same week in 2019. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is at the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue). This was the first increase in the occupancy rate compared to the same week in 2019. This was partly due to the timing of Memorial Day, and I expect the occupancy rate to be down compared to 2019 next week. Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage. This graph shows how much MTA traffic has recovered in each borough (Graph starts at first week in January 2020 and 100 = 2019 average). Manhattan is at about 39% of normal. This data is through Friday, June 3rd.
Persistent Inflation Puts Yellen in the Spotlight -The Treasury secretary’s recent comments about rising prices have put the Biden administration on the defensive. At her confirmation hearing in early 2021, Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen told lawmakers that it was time to “act big” on a pandemic relief package, playing down concerns about deficits at a time of perpetually low interest rates and warning that inaction could mean widespread economic “scarring.”A year and a half later, prices are soaring and interest rates are marching higher. As a result, Ms. Yellen’s role in crafting and selling the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, which Congress passed in March of last year, is being parsed amid an intensifying blame game to determine who is responsible for the highest rates of inflation in 40 years. After months of pinning rising prices on temporary supply chain problems that would dissipate, Ms. Yellen acknowledged last week that she had gotten it “wrong,” putting the Biden administration on the defensive and thrusting herself into the middle of a political storm.“I think I was wrong then about the path that inflation would take,” Ms. Yellen said in an interview with CNN, adding that the economy had faced unanticipated “shocks” that boosted food and energy prices.Republican lawmakers, who have spent months blaming President Biden and Democrats for rising prices, gleefully seized upon the admission as evidence that the administration had mismanaged the economy and should not be trusted to remain in political control. …The Treasury Department has scrambled to clarify Ms. Yellen’s remarks, saying her acknowledgment that she misread inflation simply meant that she could not have foreseen developments such as the war in Ukraine, new variants of the coronavirus or lockdowns in China. After a book excerpt suggested Ms. Yellen favored a stimulus package smaller than the $1.9 trillion that Congress approved last year, the Treasury released a statement denying that she had urged more spending restraint.At this tenuous moment in her tenure, Ms. Yellen is expected to face tough questions on inflation when she testifies before the Senate Finance Committee on Tuesday and the House Ways and Means Committee on Wednesday. The hearings are ostensibly about the president’s budget request for the 2023 fiscal year, but Republicans are blaming Mr. Biden’s policies, including the $1.9 trillion stimulus package, for high prices for consumer products, and Ms. Yellen’s comments have given them grist to cast his first term as a failure. …The glare is particularly uncomfortable for Ms. Yellen, an economist and former chair of the Federal Reserve, who prides herself on giving straight answers and staying above the political fray.
'The Big Short' investor Michael Burry slams Biden, the Fed, and the Treasury for being ignorant of history — and scarily blind to the inflation threat - Michael Burry accused President Biden and both Treasury and Federal Reserve officials of being ignorant about history, and worryingly blind to the risk their pandemic-era policies would result in crushing inflation."US Fed, POTUS, Treasury do not know history and, frighteningly, could not see devastating inflation coming," Burry tweeted on Wednesday.The investor of "The Big Short" fame shared a clip from an episode of "Tucker Carlson Tonight" that aired on Fox News in February 2021. In the clip, Carlson highlights a tweet from Burry warning the US government was "inviting inflation" by spending aggressively and boosting the money supply — even though retail sales and manufacturing were rebounding, the economy was reopening, and the costs of labor and logistics were soaring.Carlson also touted another of Burry's tweets, in which the Scion Asset Management boss drew parallels between Germany's path to hyperinflation in the 1920s, and America's economic trajectory in the spring of 2021.Burry, a student of financial history, has repeatedly warned of inflation during the pandemic. As early as April 2020, he cautioned the US economy's reopening could supercharge demand and send prices skyward."#History is not useless," he tweeted in February 2021, emphasizing the relevance of the US inflation crisis in the 1970s to the present day. "Prepare for inflation," he advised in another tweet that month.Burry continues to bemoan inflation today. He asserted this week the US dollar is weaker than it appears because of its declining purchasing power. "We all see it every single day in prices of everything," he said.He has also pointed out that inflation is eating into Americans' savings, threatening both consumer spending and corporate profits, and making a recession more likely. The hedge-fund manager shot to fame after his billion-dollar wageragainst the mid-2000s housing bubble was featured in the book and the movie "The Big Short." He's also known for betting against Elon Musk's Tesla and Cathie Wood's Ark Innovation fund last year, and for his past investments in GameStop, which helped pave the way for the meme-stock craze. Moreover, the contrarian investor has frequently called out the rampant hype and reckless gambling on risky assets during the pandemic. He sounded the alarm on the "greatest speculative bubble of all time in all things" last summer, and told owners of meme stocks and cryptocurrencies that they barreling towards the "mother of all crashes."
‘The numbers are catastrophically bad.’ Top economists are sounding the alarm on inflation -- For nearly a year, inflation has been hammering Americans. Every month when the Consumer Price Index report gets released, rates have stayed high or gone higher.Hopes that elevated prices were beginning to settle were dashed Friday morning when the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released data showing that the CPI, its broad measure for prices of goods and services, reached 8.6% for the month of May.The number represents the highest level of inflation in the U.S. since 1981, and it has top economists starting to get worried—like, really worried.“The overall reality for the Fed is that inflation is not under control,” Charlie Ripley, a senior investment strategist for Allianz Investment Management, told Fortune. He said he sees Friday’s CPI release as proof that the central bank needs to be more aggressive in its approach to inflation and institute greater interest rate hikes throughout this year.The Fed has already increased its baseline interest rate twice this year in an attempt to rein in inflation. The first hike came in March with a 25 basis point hike—its first in two years. Another 50 bps hike came in May.A Bank of America Research team led by Aditya Bhave wrote on Friday that the market is pricing in another 50bps hike, even though the Fed is on course to hike by 25bps. In other words, it’s pessimistic.The April CPI report showed that inflation had dropped to 8.3% following a previous peak of 8.5% in March, offering a faint glimmer of hope. Friday’s report, however, proves that inflation will be a more difficult puzzle to solve, especially as geopolitical events like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continue to impact the global economy in unpredictable ways.“The numbers are catastrophically bad for Americans and the policymakers in Washington,” says Nancy Tengler, CEO and chief investment officer of Laffer Tangler Investments, a Nashville-based firm, echoing comments she previously made toMarketWatch.Though housing, airline fares, and used and new vehicles saw the highest price increases last month, almost all other areas saw increases of some sort, according to the BLS report. Price indexes for markets as varied as medical care, home goods, recreation, and apparel all showed increases in May.“We now have clear evidence that inflation is broadening and accelerating,” says Peter Earle, research fellow at the nonprofit think tank The American Institute for Economic Research.The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which establishes interest rates, is set to meet next week to decide how much more to hike. Some experts, however, doubt the efficacy of those hikes at all, and wonder if inflation is already too far gone from the Fed’s control.“The Fed is bluffing,” said Greenlight Capital’s David Einhorn at the 2022 Sohn Investment Conference on Thursday. “Inflation ain’t going away so fast. The Fed doesn’t really have the tools to stop the inflation.”Continuing to increase interest rates could impact the U.S. Treasury’s ability to fund itself, said Einhorn in his remarks at the conference. “When the Fed has to choose between fighting the inflation and supporting the Treasury, I think it has to pick the Treasury,” he said.As a result, inflation will ultimately end not through action from the Federal Reserve, said Einhorn, but when consumers lose so much buying power that they stop spending altogether. “All the work to curtail inflation will have to come from the demand side,” he said. “As a result, prices will have to go much higher to dissuade substantial consumption, as such inflation is likely to be much more persistent.”
Americans 'Deeply Pessimistic' About US Economy, Inflation - According to a new poll, 83% of Americans are pessimistic about the US economy - describing it as "poor or not so good," while 35% say they aren't satisfied with their financial situation - the highest level of dissatisfaction in the 50 years since the Wall Street Journal-NORC (University of Chicago) poll began.The survey found Americans in a sour mood and registering some of the highest levels of economic dissatisfaction in years. The pessimism extended beyond the current economy to include doubts about the nation’s political system, its role as a global leader and its ability to help most people achieve the American dream. -WSJThe Journal frames sentiment as "deeply pessimistic," and says Americans view the nation as sharply divided over its most important values.Only 27% of the 1,071 adults polled say they have a good chance of improving their standard of living - a 20% drop from last year, while 46% said they don't.Meanwhile, 38% said their financial situation had gotten worse in the past few years - marking the second time since the 2007-2009 recession that more than 30% of respondents said their finances were worse off, according to 50 years of data.Some 60% said they were pessimistic about the ability for most people to achieve the American dream."The promise was this was a place where what you were born into did not determine who you could be. But I think we’ve failed deeply at that," said Julie Olsen Edwards, an 83-year-old Soquel, Calif., retired community college teacher. "I find myself choking up saying it."What's driving the results? Inflation, of course.The survey results show that high inflation in particular is driving the dim economic outlook, said Jennifer Benz, vice president of public affairs and media research at NORC. Inflation is running at close to its fastest pace in four decades, at an 8.3% annual rate in April, one of several factors weighing on consumers. Households are digging into savings to support their spending, the Commerce Department has said, and the S&P 500 nearly closed in bear territory recently. -WSJThe poll does have a bright spot - namely the labor market, with the unemployment rate close to a multi-decade low at 3.6%. Around 2/3 of those polled said it would be 'somewhat or very easy' to find a new job with around the same income and benefits - the highest % since 1977.That said, the overall results of the poll suggest that Democrats 'face a dispirited electorate heading into November's elections,' as respondents' despondent view of things suggests that 'a connective tissue of pessimism underlies Americans' economic and social attitudes."
Blame monopolies for today's sky-high inflation, Boston Fed researchers say -The decades-long decline of industry competition made today's inflation crisis much worse than it needed to be, researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston said in a new paper.The US's industrial concentration problem isn't anything new. The economy is at least 50% more concentrated now than it was in 2005, according to the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, a commonly used measure of industry concentration. That means a smaller group of companies control the lion's share of their respective sectors.Companies typically pass higher input costs on to consumer prices. Yet that pass-through "becomes about 25 percentage points greater when there is an increase in concentration similar to the one observed since the beginning of this century," Fed economists Falk Bräuning, José L. Fillat, and Gustavo Joaquim said. Put simply, dwindling industry competition leads to companies raising prices at a much faster pace.The pass-through happens through a variety of channels, according to the paper. The rise in concentration over the past two decades has been an "amplifying factor" to cost shocks from supply shortages, energy price spikes, and the labor shortage, the team said.All three trends have been rife in the US economy over the past several months. Lockdowns in China roiled the global supply chain in 2021, and rising coronavirus case counts in Beijing threaten to repeat that cycle. Russia's invasion of Ukraine boosted energy prices around the world. And the labor market is the tightest it's been in decades, with job openings at record highs and companies still struggling to find available workers. Encouragingly, the above-trend price increases don't last forever, the economists said. When companies face cost shocks, they tend to pass those on to consumers over the next four quarters before returning to a more typical inflation trend. The fastest inflation typically arrives one quarter after the cost shock, according to the study. The pace of price growth then slows over the next three quarters. Still, the research details yet another dynamic that's allowed US inflation to recently hit its highest level since the 1980s. While factors like the labor shortage and rising energy prices are practically guaranteed to lift inflation, companies represent a critical junction between higher input costs and higher prices paid by Americans. The Boston Fed's research signals that, unless competition rebounds, the economy will be even more susceptible to inflationary shocks in the future.
What Is Really Causing Our Inflation: “Inflation in a Time of Corona and War” - Financial Times’ Martin Wolf (2022)is the latest influential voice sounding the alarm bell on ‘the threat of stagflation’ and calling for the Fed to drastically raise interest rates to bring inflation down to its target level. Published on May 24, Wolf’s diagnosis of where the stagflation in the US economy is coming from reflects current establishment opinion: nominal demand, fuelled by over-expansionary fiscal and monetary policies during the COVID-19 crisis, is exceeding US supply. To bring down inflation, these macroeconomic policy errors need to be corrected convincingly and as soon as possible. This is how Wolf puts it: US supply is constrained above all by overfull employment […] Meanwhile, nominal demand has been expanding at a torrid pace. [….] The combination of fiscal and monetary policies implemented in 2020 and 2021 ignited an inflationary fire. The belief that these flames will go out with a modest move in interest rates and no rise in unemployment is far too optimistic. Suppose, then, that this grim perspective is correct. Then inflation will fall, but maybe only to 4 per cent or so. Higher inflation would become a new normal. The Fed would then need to act again or have to abandon its target, destabilising expectations and losing credibility. This would be a stagflation cycle — a result of the interaction of shocks with mistakes made by fiscal and monetary policymakers. Wolf hedges his bets and does not state how strongly the Fed should raise the interest rate in order to avoid the ‘grim’ prospect of a stagflation cycle. Wolf is in the good company of Lawrence Summers who voiced similar concerns already in February. Summers, however, does not hesitate to provide more explicit guidance to monetary policy-makers in the Fed: [….] we’re likely to have a need for nominal interest rates, basic Fed interest rates, to rise to the 4 percent to 5 percent range over the next couple of years. If they don’t do that, I think we’ll get higher inflation. And then over time, it will be necessary for them to get to still higher levels and cause even greater dislocations (Klein 2022).Summers’ and Wolf’s calls for action are echoed by many observers in the financial sector.Mohamed El-Erian (2022), for instance, argues thatAlso similar to the 1970s, the US Federal Reserve [….] is already dealing with self-inflicted damage to its inflation-fighting credibility. With that comes the likelihood of de-anchored inflationary expectations, the absence of good monetary policy options, and a stark choice for the Fed between enabling above-target inflation well into 2023 or pushing the economy into recession. (italics added)Goldman Sachs Group President John Waldron has just one piece of advice for the Fed: “…. bring back Paul Volcker” (Natarajan and Reyes 2022). Wolf, Summers, El-Erian, and Waldron are thus putting serious pressure on the Fed to hike up interest rates more strongly and quickly than it is already doing.“We have to reassure people we are going to defend our inflation target and we are going to get inflation back to 2%,” St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard stated recently, adding that “our credibility is on the line here” (Egan 2022). Bullard doubled down on his view by recommending that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) should shoot for a policy rate above 3% this year. Not only the Fed, but central banks all over the globe are raising rates rapidly in the most widespread tightening of monetary policy for more than two decades, according to a recentFinancial Timesanalysis (Romei 2022). To bring down inflationary pressures, central bankers worldwide have announced more than 60 increases in current key interest rates in the past three months. The recent increases are just the beginning of a global monetary tightening cycle (UNCTAD 2022). The Fed, pushed by the likes of Summers, Wolf, El-Erian, and Waldron, is expected to move to a policy rate around 2.5%-2.75% by the end of 2022, but statements in the minutes of the FOMC indicate that its members are prepared to raise interest rates more, if and when deemed necessary.
Sixty Years of the “Misery Index” by Menzie Chinn - The simple sum of the unemployment rate and the (y/y) inflation rate: Figure 1: “Misery index” as sum of inflation and unemployment rate, in % (blue, left scale), and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index (brown, right scale). NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS via FRED, Cleveland Fed, U.Mich., NBER, and author’s calculations. There’s no particular reason to give equal weight to inflation and unemployment; rather Arthur Okun suggested this particular composite (which he called a “discomfort index”) as a way of conveying an idea in a simple way (see Cohen, et al. 2014 for history). Jimmy Carter subsequently cited this measure as an index of “economic misery”. How is this related to measures of how people actually describe their discomfort? One popular measure of economic satisfaction is the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (shown as the brown line in Figure 1). This index is clearly inversely related to the misery index:. There is no particular reason why one should weight unemployment and inflation equally. While the INFLATION and UNRATE coefficients do not look particularly different, a Wald test rejects equality at very high levels of significance. Several interesting aspects to the relationship between the misery index and consumer sentiment.First, the relationship is not stable; Bai-Perron least squares break point tests indicate three breaks over the graphed period. Second, relatedly, importance of unemployment and inflation change over time, both in terms of the slope coefficients, and in terms of standardized beta coefficients. In the latest two years, inflation looms larger. As an aside, both the Michigan consumer sentiment index (in levels) and the misery index are lousy predictors of recession 12 months ahead (over the 1986-2022 period).
If Biden owned his contribution to inflation, he’d have credibility on his achievements --President Biden has a credibility problem he needs to solve. Instead of admitting that his American Rescue Plan (ARP) contributed to inflation, he blames inflation on the pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and, most recently, what he called the Republican “ultra-MAGA agenda.” But voters aren’t buying it.: 64 percent of them including 46 percent of Democrats blame the President for the increased costs they experience every day.ARP pumped $1.9 trillion into the economy that boosted consumer spending and fueled inflation. Distributions were based on 2019 tax returns, so many who were unaffected by COVID received money to spend unrelated to pandemic losses.Only after taking responsibility for his role in inflation will voters believe Biden when he identifies the causes that aren’t his fault. And there are plenty of those.For example, Donald Trump’s Cares Act, the largest economic relief bill in U.S. history, dumped $2.2 trillion into the economy. Distributions were based on 2018 and 2019 returns — so, like ARP, checks went to many who didn’t suffer economic losses from COVID.Export curbs imposed by five countries were another cause of inflation, driving food prices up 30 percent from 2021 to 2022. Gas prices surged over last year as oil and gas demand outpaced production and consumers emerged from the pandemic to drive and fly more.The U.S. labor shortage has also contributed to inflation because it forces businesses to increase wages to attract and keep employees. The shortage has been aggravated by the lowest migration levels in decades. Labor force participation rates fell precipitously in 2020 from 63.4 percent to 60.2 percent and have yet to recover fully — they’re still circling 40-year lows. Meanwhile net migration to the United States dropped significantly due to Trump administration policies. Household goods and food prices surged to their highest levels in a decade before Biden even took office.Clearly, such things are not Biden’s fault. But accepting responsibility for the inflationary pressures he did cause will give him the credibility and the pulpit to explain the economic good they did. For example, although ARP contributed to inflation, it also reduced overall poverty by 45 percent and child poverty by 56 percent in the US in 2021.
Moderate Democrats push their party to do more to fight inflation - A coalition of moderate House Democrats is urging the party to fight harder to combat inflation, calling for action on issues ranging from tariffs to immigration and drug prices.The list of proposals Wednesday from the New Democrats, the largest voting bloc in the caucus, calls for executive action by the White House and legislation in Congress. They aim to break through gridlock in Washington to answer increasingly anguished pleas from constituents who face rising prices at the pump and at the grocery store – before they vent their frustration at the polls in the midterm elections. "Good policy is good politics," Rep. Suzan DelBene, a Washington state Democrat and the group's chairwoman, told CNBC. "People want us to show them that governance is working and that we're focused on these issues and moving forward. That's what will impact voters this November."The group spent months debating the recommendations and consulting with top economists such as former Obama advisor Jason Furman and the Brookings Institution's Wendy Edelberg. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers has endorsed the plan. In a letter Wednesday, the New Democrats pushed House leadership to use "every legislative week to advance an affordability agenda."The platform comes as the Biden administration ramps up its public responseto inflation, which has strained consumers as it sits near 40-year highs. The White House has highlighted recent moves on fuel economy standards, oil supplies and student debt, which it says will help to rein in costs.But several of the proposals from the New Democrats go beyond what the White House has embraced. Namely, the group called for broad exclusions to tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump on Chinese imports and a suspension of trade barriers limiting food supply. "That's the one thing that would have the most immediate effect," said Rep. Scott Peters of California, the group's vice chairman of policy.Earlier this week, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said the administration is considering rolling back levies on items such as household goods. But the White House also faces pressure from labor groups to maintain a tough stance against Beijing.
House conservatives propose balancing budget in 7 years with $16.6T in cuts - The Republican Study Committee (RSC), the largest conservative caucus in the House, on Thursday released its annual model federal budget proposal, which the committee says would balance the federal budget in seven years and advance socially conservative measures. Dubbed the “Blueprint to save America,” the group projects that over 10 years, its fiscal year 2023 model budget would cut federal spending by $16.6 trillion more than current Congressional Budget Office projections, if taxes and spending remain generally unchanged.Those cuts would not include military spending, which would be boosted by 5 percent. It would also cut taxes by $3.9 trillion over a decade.The group says the proposal would balance the federal budget in seven years, two years longer than last year’s model budget, which proposed $14 trillion in cuts over 10 years.“A ‘Blueprint to save America’ isn’t just hyperbole. It’s a no-nonsense plan that cuts spending reduces deficits and bolsters our economy, all things that the President’s budget fails to do,” said Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Okla.), head of the caucus’s budget and spending task force. “We quote this line often from the speaker. She says, ‘Show me your budget, and I’ll show you your values. It’s clear that fiscal responsibility is not one of the President’s core values.”“House Democrats and Joe Biden have spent more taxpayer dollars at a faster pace than at any point in American history, and Americans are worse off,” said Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.), chair of the Republican Study Committee. “They’re now paying nearly $5 a gallon, and $5.25 in my hometown. You’re dealing with the highest inflation that we’ve seen in a generation.”Long-term budget plans often have little bearing about what is enacted in the future, though, and projections frequently change.The plan is not entirely fiscally focused, with socially conservative priorities and measures included as well.Hern called the plan the “most pro-life budget that the RSC has ever produced.” It includes more than 30 anti-abortion measures, such as preventing Title X funding from going to abortion providers. Like previous RSC budgets, it includes measures aimed at protecting gun rights.A new appearance in the budget is a section on “Fighting for Parental Rights and Stopping Critical Race Theory.” It lists eight bills aimed at barring principles based on “critical race theory” from being taught in schools, federal agencies or the military. Hern is running to be the next chair of the Republican Study Committee and replace Banks, who is term-limited. Also running for the position is Rep. Kat Cammack (R-Fla.).
US Leads Sanctions Killing Millions to No End - Food crises, economic stagnation and price increases are worsening unevenly, almost everywhere, following the Ukraine war. Sanctions against Russia have especially hurt those relying on wheat and fertilizer imports.Unilateral sanctions – not approved by the UN Security Council – are illegal under international law. Besides contravening the UN Charter, unilateral sanctions inflict much human loss. Countless civilians – many far from target countries – are at risk, depriving them of much, even life itself.Sanctions, embargos and blockades – ‘sold’ as non-violent alternatives to waging war by military means – economically isolate and punish targeted countries, supposedly to force them to acquiesce. But most sanctions hurt the innocent majority, much more than ruling elites.Like laying siege on enemy settlements, sanctions are ‘weapons of mass starvation’. They “are silent killers. People die in their homes, nobody is counting”. The human costs are considerable and varied, but largely overlooked. Knowing they are mere collateral damage will not endear any victim to the sanctions’ ‘true purpose’. The US has imposed more sanctions, for longer periods, than any other nation. During 1990-2005, the US imposed a third of sanctions regimes worldwide. These were inflicted on more than 1,000 entities or individuals yearly in 2016-20 – nearly 80% more than in 2008-15. Thus, the Trump administration raised the US share of all sanctions to almost half!Tens of millions of Afghans now face food insecurity, even starvation, as the US has seized its US$9.5 billion central bank reserves. President Biden’s 11 February 2022 executive order gives half of this to 9/11 victims’ families, although no Afghan was ever found responsible for the atrocity.Biden claims the rest will be for ‘humanitarian crises’, presumably as decided by the White House. But he remains silent about the countless victims of the US’s two-decade long war in Afghanistan, where airstrikes alone killed at least 48,308 civilians.Now, the US-controlled World Bank and IMF both block access to financial resources for Afghanistan. The long US war’s massive population displacement and physical destruction have made it much more vulnerable and foreign aid dependent.The six decade-long US trade embargo has cost Cuba at least US$130 billion. It causes shortages of food, medicine and other essential items to this day. Meanwhile, Washington continues to ignore the UN General Assembly’s call to lift its blockade.The US-backed Israeli blockade of the densely populated Gaza Strip has inflicted at least US$17 billion in losses. Besides denying Gaza’s population access to many imported supplies – including medicines – bombing and repression make life miserable for its besieged people.Meanwhile, the US supports the Saudi-led coalition’s war on Yemen with its continuing blockade of the poorest Arab nation. US arms sales to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have ensured the worst for Yemenis under siege.Blocking essential goods – including food, fuel and medical supplies – has intensified the “world’s worst ongoing humanitarian crisis”. Meanwhile, “years of famine” – including “starving to death a Yemeni child every 75 seconds” – have been aggravated by the “largest cholera outbreak anywhere in history”.Humanitarian disasters and destroying lives and livelihoods are excused as inevitable “collateral damage”. Acknowledging hundreds of thousands of Iraqi child deaths, due to US sanctions after the 1991 invasion, an ex-US Secretary of State deemed the price “worth it”.Poverty levels in countries under US sanctions are 3.8 percentage points higher, on average, than in other comparable countries. Such negative impacts rose with their duration, while unilateral and US sanctions stood out as most effective!Clearly, the US government has not hesitated to wage war by other means. Its recent sanctions threaten living costs worldwide, reversing progress everywhere, especially for the most vulnerable.Yet, US-led unilateral sanctions against Iran, Venezuela, North Korea and other countries have failed to achieve their purported objectives, namely, to change regimes, or at least, regime behaviour.
Biden’s Visit To Saudi Arabia Exposes The Ukraine Narrative For The Sham It Is – Caitlin Johnstone - In a major walkback from his campaign pledge to make Saudi Arabia a “pariah” for human rights abuses like the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi, President Biden will reportedly visit Riyadh with the goal of persuading Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to help the US alliance win its economic war against Russia.The Guardian tells us the trip “suggests Biden has prioritized his need to bring oil prices down and thereby punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, over his stand on human rights.”So in order to punish Vladimir Putin for his war crimes and his assault on freedom and democracy, Biden will be courting a tyrannical war criminal whose country has no freedom or democracy. Washington will be ending its brief diplomatic dry spell with a government that has been waging a horrific war against Yemen while suppressing any semblance of human rights at home in order to more effectively punish Putin for waging a horrific war against Ukraine which we’re told threatens freedom and democracy throughout the western world. I am not the first to note the risible irony of this development. “The Biden Administration is openly planning to pay homage to one [of] its closest allies — one of the most despotic and murderous tyrants on the planet, the Saudi Crown Prince — at the same time it convinces Americans its motive for fighting wars is to defend freedom and democracy,”tweeted Glenn Greenwald.“The EU literally just banned oil from Russia (mimicking the United States’ actions) because they don’t want to give money to a ‘dictator’. So Biden is travelling soon to Saudi Arabia to try and bring energy prices down– which is a vibrant democracy, as you all know,” tweeted Richard Medhurst.“As part of mobilizing support for the great war for ‘freedom’ in Ukraine, Biden will be visiting the great beacon of ‘democracy,’ Saudi Arabia this month. What’s a little murder and dismemberment between friends?” tweeted Joseph Kishore.Indeed, one wonders if perhaps Putin could settle this whole conflict by staging a few mass beheadings and dismembering a Washington Post reporter with a bone saw to get on America’s good side.
Biden’s visit delayed as efforts to normalise Saudi, Israel ties continue - US President Joe Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia and Israel — planned for late June — has now been postponed to July, various US media outlets reported on Saturday. Speculations about the visit started in mid-May and several US media outlets reported last week that Mr Biden might visit the two Middle Eastern countries as early as late June. On Friday, President Biden acknowledged that he plans to visit Saudi Arabia soon but indicated that the trip might not take place in June. “I have been engaged in trying to work with how we can bring more stability and peace to the Middle East,” he said on Friday. “There is a possibility that I would … meet both the Israelis and some Arab countries at the time, including, I expect, Saudi Arabia.” But he also said that he had “no direct plans at the moment” and was looking at various possibilities. When journalists contacted the White House for clarification, they were told the visit might happen in July, not June as speculated. It would be Biden’s first trip to the region since he came to office in January last year. The trip would include a summit in Saudi Arabia with the leaders of nine Arab countries, followed by visits to Israel and the Palestinian Authority. US media outlets reported that Biden would also meet Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman when he visits the kingdom. The reports speculated that larger political and strategic interests would persuade Biden to meet the prince despite his concerns about his alleged involvement in the murder of a Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi. Earlier this week, Saudi Arabia and other oil-producing states agreed to boost their output by 648,000 barrels per day in July and to a similar increase in August. But Washington wants a greater increase to ease the impact of its sanctions on Russian oil, imposed after Moscow invaded Ukraine. The United States and Israeli media reported that Israel has also been talking to Washington about how to establish diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia continues to publicly proclaim its commitment to the Palestinian cause and insists that it will not normalise its relations with Israel until this issue is resolved.
White House Defends Biden's Plans To Visit 'Pariah' Saudi Arabia & Meet With MbS --The White House on Tuesday defended President Biden’s plans to meet with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Saudi Arabia, a country he once vowed to make a "pariah." Although the dates for Biden’s trip to Saudi Arabia haven’t yet been set, he did confirm that he has plans to meet with MbS, who is the Kingdom’s de facto leader. Defending the MbS meeting, the White House said it will "serve the US national interest.""This trip to Israel and Saudi Arabia — when it comes — would be in the context of significant deliverables for the American people in the Middle East region," said White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre.“If he determines that it’s in the interest of the United States to engage with a foreign leader and that such an engagement can deliver results, then he’ll do so,” she added. Biden is expected to press MbS to increase oil output as Americans are facing record-high gas prices.But the plan has exposed the hypocrisy of the Biden administration as the US has banned the import of Russian oil over Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine while turning to Saudi Arabia for help, a country that has been leading a brutal war against its neighbor Yemen with US support since March 2015.Biden’s plan to meet with MbS has drawn criticism from Congress. Six House Democrats sent a letter to President Biden urging him to "recalibrate" the US-Saudi relationship. Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) said that if he were in Biden’s shoes, he wouldn’t meet with MbS because of the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, who US intelligence assessed was killed at the direction of the Saudi crown prince."I wouldn’t go. I wouldn’t shake his hand. This is someone who butchered an American resident, cut him up into pieces and in the most terrible and premeditated way," Schiff said. Democrats in Congress have also led a renewed effort to end the war in Yemen by introducing a war powers resolution to end US support for the conflict. The bill has 55 cosponsors, including five Republicans.
Rights groups express ‘deep concerns’ over Biden meeting with Saudi crown price -More than a dozen human rights groups voiced “deep concerns” over President Biden’s upcoming trip to Saudi Arabia and meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in a letter on Thursday. “Efforts to repair the U.S. relationship with the government of Saudi Arabia without a genuine commitment to prioritize human rights are not only a betrayal of your campaign promises, but will likely embolden the crown prince to commit further violations of international human rights and humanitarian law,” the letter read. The letter was signed by groups including Human Rights Watch, Freedom House, The James W. Foley Legacy Foundation and Project on Middle East Democracy, among others. Biden’s planned meeting this summer comes as the U.S. is looking to offset rising gas prices after cutting off oil imports from Russia over the war in Ukraine. But the groups asked that Biden take tangible action including the immediate release of all political prisoners in the country, lifting arbitrary travel bans on “human rights defenders and others,” ending unlawful surveillance, ending male guardianship, establishing moratorium on executions and committing to maintaining the ceasefire in Yemen. Their demands came after the human rights groups alleged that the “crown prince’s government continues to arbitrarily imprison, torture, and execute numerous individuals in violation of the internationally protected rights to a fair trial and due process.” They also cited an increase in mass executions and other human rights violations.
Biden Has ‘Only Bad Options’ for Bringing Down Oil Prices - — When President Biden meets Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Saudi Arabia, he will be following in the footsteps of presidents like Jimmy Carter, who flew to Tehran in 1977 to exchange toasts with the shah of Iran on New Year’s Eve. Like the prince, the shah was an unelected monarch with a tarnished human rights record. But Mr. Carter was obliged to celebrate with him for a cause that was of great concern to people back home: cheaper gasoline and secure oil supplies. As Mr. Carter and other presidents learned, Mr. Biden has precious few tools to bring down costs at the pump, especially when Russia, one of the world’s largest energy producers, has started an unprovoked war against a smaller neighbor. In Mr. Carter’s time, oil supplies that Western countries needed were threatened by revolutions in the Middle East. During the 2020 campaign, Mr. Biden pledged to turn Saudi Arabia into a “pariah” for the assassination of a prominent dissident, Jamal Khashoggi. But officials said last week that he planned to visit the kingdom this summer. It was just the latest sign that oil has again regained its centrality in geopolitics. Just a few years ago, many lawmakers in Washington and oil and gas executives in Texas were patting themselves on the back for an energy boom that had turned the United States into a net exporter of oil and petroleum products and made it more energy independent. With prices rising, that achievement now looks illusory. The United States is the world’s biggest oil and natural gas producer, but it accounts for only about 12 percent of the global petroleum supply. The price of oil, the principal cost in gasoline, can still shoot up or tumble depending on events halfway around the world. And no president, no matter how powerful or competent, can do much to control it. Those facts are cold comfort to Americans who are finding that a stop at the gas station can easily cost a hundred dollars, much more than just a year earlier. When fuel prices rise, consumers demand action and can turn against presidents who seem unwilling or unable to bring them back down.Always looking ahead to the next election when their jobs or their party’s hold on power is at stake, presidents can find it impossible not to try to cajole or plead with foreign and domestic oil producers to drill and pump more oil, faster. “A president has to try,” said Bill Richardson, an energy secretary in the Clinton administration. “Unfortunately, there are only bad options. And any alternative options are probably worse than asking the Saudis to increase production.” Two other oil-producing countries that could increase production — Iran and Venezuela — are U.S. adversaries that Western sanctions have largely cut out of the global market. Striking any deal with their leaders without securing major concessions on issues like nuclear enrichment and democratic reforms would be politically perilous for Mr. Biden.
Banning U.S. Oil Exports Would Be Biden’s Ultimate Energy Folly --Just when you thought President Joe Biden couldn’t screw up U.S. energy policy any worse, his cabinet rises to the occasion. The Biden administration wants to curb – and potentially ban outright – U.S. exports of oil and refined products. Such a decision would do little to tame soaring consumer fuel prices and could cause them to remain inflated for longer. Speaking to reporters during a recent tour of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in Louisiana, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said that the administration was “not taking any tools off the table” in its effort to reduce prices at the pump, including reimposing the 1970s ban on oil exports that was lifted in 2015. Secretary Granholm’s comments mark a significant shift in policy for the administration. It was only last December that Granholm said an export ban was not under consideration. However, in the past six months, inflation and soaring energy prices have put Biden and national Democrats on the ropes ahead of difficult midterm elections. Gas prices have set almost daily records, closing in on a national average of $5 a gallon since Biden took office in January 2021. Diesel prices are even worse, averaging $5.60 a gallon nationwide. The White House has gone out of its way to blame soaring energy prices on the war in Ukraine, calling it “Putin’s price hike.” But the reality is that energy prices were already surging before Russia invaded Ukraine in late February. Biden has already tapped the Strategic Petroleum Reserve more than any previous president, drawing down the nation’s emergency stockpile by roughly 1 million barrels a day, only to see crude prices march to over $120 a barrel. The administration is desperate to show that it is “doing something” to tame runaway fuel prices as Americans take to the road in droves. More political intervention is not the solution, though. Banning petroleum exports would be a dramatic move, especially given Biden’s existing policies like halting the leasing of federal lands for oil and gas development, which would send yet another sign that the White House is unserious about maintaining America’s role as one of the world’s most influential oil producers. It would also be a further indication that the administration has no idea how global energy markets work. Secretary Granholm raised eyebrows last year when she admitted not knowing how much oil Americans consume daily. Banning exports in an environment of rising demand and limited global supply would put the administration’s ignorance on a whole new level. There is ample evidence that reimposing export ban would negatively impact the domestic and global economy. In January, the Dallas Federal Reserve released a study on the potential impacts of a crude oil export ban, looking into its consequences on global energy prices and how this would impact American consumers. The study concluded that a cessation of U.S. exports “would lower the supply of oil in global markets and raise its price” and that “one would expect global fuel prices, if anything, to increase as a result.”
Biden wants to get out more, seething that his standing is now worse than Trump’s - President Joe Biden and his aides have grown increasingly frustrated by their inability to turn the tide against a cascade of challenges threatening to overwhelm the administration. Soaring global inflation. Rising fuel prices. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A Supreme Court poised to take away a constitutional right. A potentially resurgent pandemic. A Congress too deadlocked to tackle sweeping gun safety legislation even amid an onslaught of mass shootings. In crisis after crisis, the White House has found itself either limited or helpless in its efforts to combat the forces pummeling them. Morale inside 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. is plummeting amid growing fears that the parallels to Jimmy Carter, another first-term Democrat plagued by soaring prices and a foreign policy morass, will stick. “It’s something that has bedeviled quite a few previous presidents. Lots of things happen on your watch but it doesn’t mean there is a magic wand to fix it,” said Robert Gibbs, a press secretary under President Barack Obama. “The limits of the presidency are not well grasped. The responsibility of the president is greater than the tools he has to fix it.” The West Wing believes there is still time for a course correction. The plan is to put Biden on the road to highlight progress being made, even incrementally, in meeting the series of tests, with visits this week to California, where he will preside over a summit of Western Hemisphere allies, as well as New Mexico to push for his climate agenda. The administration will also set aside its reluctance to work with “a pariah” nation with hopes to spur oil production. And it plans to sharpen its attacks on Republicans, aiming to paint the GOP as out-of-touch with mainstream America on issues like gun safety and abortion, all while hoping the upcoming Jan. 6 congressional hearings will further color the party as too extremist and dangerous to return to power. But first aides need to quell the finger-pointing that’s been erupting internally and the increasing concern over staff shakeups, according to five White House officials and Democrats close to the administration not authorized to publicly discuss internal conversations. They also increasingly are trying to soothe the greatest source of West Wing frustration, coming from behind the Resolute Desk. The president has expressed exasperation that his poll numbers have sunk below those of Donald Trump, whom Biden routinely refers to in private as “the worst president” in history and an existential threat to the nation’s democracy.
Opinion | 'Let Biden Be Biden' Isn’t the Solution — It’s the Problem - It’s never a great sign when they are writing “what went wrong” pieces about your presidency at the 18-month mark. People around Joe Biden have been talking to reporters about their frustrations — and the president’s frustrations — in a spate of stories of the sort only published when you’ve sunk beneath 40 percent approval in some reputable polls. “Inside a Biden White House adrift” was the headline of a much-discussed NBC News report last week. A headline on a similarly insidery POLITICO piece earlier this week noted that Biden is “seething that his standing is now worse than Trump’s.”A common theme is that Biden or people close to him think he should get out more, with one Biden confidant telling POLITICO that the White House needs to, in the inevitable cliche used by frustrated loyalists, “let Biden be Biden.”This, though, is not a very plausible plan, and while events have done Biden no favors (dark humor about plagues of locusts shows up in the NBC story), Biden fundamentally misconceived his presidency by misreading the political moment and his own capabilities. It seems obvious now that the country and Biden himself would have been best-served if he had attempted an incrementalist, steady-hand presidency. Instead, he somehow decided in the course of the 2020 election that he was the revolutionary figure the country had long been waiting for. And his hand has proven anything but steady. Biden won largely on the basis of not being Trump, yet believed the country was in a Depression-like state and needed the ministrations of a transformational FDR-type leader, namely him.In a piece that didn’t get nearly the attention it deserved at the time, Franklin Foer of The Atlantic wrote in October 2020 that Biden was becoming enamored with grand visions of transforming the country as he campaigned from his basement.“What makes the possibility of a Biden presidency so promising,” Foer wrote, “isn’t simply that he will ambitiously deploy government, but that he’ll sweat the politics of that expansion; he’ll worry about the marketing and attempt to preempt an inevitable backlash. In a time when the public has lost faith in institutions, he has a history of building that trust.”This was both incredibly prescient and astonishingly wrongheaded. Yes, Biden tried to go big, but he didn’t have the congressional majorities to support anything like an FDR-style agenda and he lacked the suppleness and skills to get the big calls right or move the needle of public opinion.
Biden is hosting the Summit of the Americas, but Mexico's president won't be there - The Summit of the Americas — an event bringing together leaders of countries from Chile to Canada this week — was supposed to be a chance for the White House to demonstrate its leadership on big regional issues such as migration, climate change and recovering from the pandemic.But the agenda has been overshadowed by who won't be at the table. Several leaders, including Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, turned down the chance to meet with President Biden in Los Angeles.The absences are drawing attention to the waning influence of the United States in the region and raising questions about U.S. commitment to Latin America.As vice president, Biden visited the region more than 16 times, so there was a lot of optimism when he took office about a more collaborative relationship with the hemisphere. But after more than a year in office as president, Biden has devoted more time to pressing issues in Russia and China. The summit comes as China has made bigger inroads into the region's economy, pouring more than $138 billion into Latin America and the Caribbean since 2005, according to the Congressional Research Service.Latin America has been crying out for economic relief following the pandemic and getting little help from the United States, while China sits in wait — with an open checkbook. The United States needs to be more proactive to improve its standing in the region, and to make it attractive for Latin American leaders to engage, said Eric Farnsworth, a former State Department official now at the Council of the Americas. "I've been saying this since at least last summer," Farnsworth said. "You are heading for a train wreck unless you change course in some way and recognize that the hemisphere has shifted. But our policy in the region is simply status quo." Jake Sullivan, Biden's national security adviser, said the administration's strategy is about more than just pouring money into "extractive projects," like China does. "The United States has never seen its comparative advantage in the world as just leveraging the hugest number of state dollars — but rather leveraging all the tools available to us," Sullivan told reporters traveling with Biden.
Snubs from key leaders over Summit of the Americas reveal Biden's struggle to assert US leadership in Western Hemisphere - The decision by Mexico's President to boycott this week's summit for regional leaders in Los Angeles rendered futile months of work by President Joe Biden and other top officials to convince him to attend.Now, key nations in Central America are following President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's lead, dispatching only lower-level delegates instead of their leaders. And by the time Biden arrives to the summit Wednesday, questions over the event's invitation list and attendees will have obscured its larger purpose, a source of frustration to administration officials who didn't necessarily expect the mess.The decision by several countries to stay away from the southern California gathering, a protest of Biden's decision not to invite three regional autocrats, has underscored the struggle to exert US influence in a region that has become fractured politically and is struggling economically.And it has exposed the difficulties and contradictions in Biden's vow to restore democratic values to American foreign policy. Even as he takes a stand against inviting dictators to a summit on US soil, prompting anger and boycotts from those key regional partners, his aides are simultaneously planning a visit to Saudi Arabia — seen as a necessity at a moment of a global energy crisis, despite the kingdom's grave human rights record. White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Tuesday the kingdom is an "important partner," though Biden once said it must be made a "pariah."In the end, the White House announced Tuesday that 23 heads of state will attend this week's Summit of the Americas, which administration officials said was in line with past iterations of the triennial confab. One leader who was on the fence, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, will attend and meet Biden for the first time.Yet the absences of the presidents of Mexico, El Salvador, Honduras and Guatemala are still notable since the United States has worked to cultivate those leaders as partners on immigration, an issue that looms as a political liability for Biden.
Bipartisan bill targets entities doing business with Russian energy industry - Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) and Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.) on Thursday introduced House and Senate versions of a bill that would bar federal agencies from contracting with entities that do business with Russia’s energy sector. The Keeping Russia’s Energy and Military Liable for Invading its Neighbors (KREMLIN) Act would keep the prohibition in effect until Russia withdraws from Ukraine, ends military hostilities and is no longer a threat to NATO members, as certified by the United States president. “Put simply, the U.S. government should not be contracting with companies profiting from, and supporting, Putin’s war crimes,” Waltz said in a statement. “We must do all we can to choke off Russia’s ability to wage war against its democratic neighbors.” The bills — also co-sponsored by Democratic Reps. Jason Crow (Colo.) and Marcy Kaptur (Ohio) — will include exemptions for cases involving vital humanitarian aid or U.S. national security interests. The bill comes several months after the White House announced an end to all direct imports of Russian oil and gas as part of sanctions against the Kremlin for the ongoing invasion of Ukraine. In April, Congress passed bills formally banning those imports. More recently, the European Union, which is far more reliant on Russian imports, announced a formal embargo on Russian oil and gas, with temporary exemptions for Bulgaria and Croatia due to their particular geographical exposure. Still, U.S. energy security envoy Amos Hochstein told lawmakers Thursday that he “can’t deny” that Russia’s per-barrel revenues from fossil fuels are up compared to shortly before the invasion. Hochstein said that while Russia has been forced to sell in markets like India and China at a discount, worldwide spikes in fuel prices have likely kept revenues high for Moscow. The EU’s embargo will not fully take effect until the end of the year.
Senate panel approves Finland, Sweden’s bid to join NATO - The Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Thursday easily passed a resolution pressing NATO to quickly admit Finland and Sweden, a sign of bipartisan agreement about pushing back on Russian aggression. In a voice vote, the committee approved the measure supporting the two Nordic states’ entrance into the security alliance and urged other NATO members to do the same. There were no objections. “The committee’s passage of this resolution is a testament to the bipartisan support for Finland and Sweden joining NATO, and the urgency of strengthening the alliance amidst Russia’s unprovoked and brutal invasion of Ukraine,” panel ranking member James Risch (R-Idaho) said in a statement after the vote. “I’ve long said that Sweden’s and Finland’s strong political and military traditions make them a perfect fit for the alliance. I hope the Senate will follow the committee’s lead and move quickly to pass this resolution.” NATO has sought to strengthen its alliance against Russia since the Kremlin’s unprovoked attack on Ukraine began on Feb. 24, a war that has also threatened nearby member countries. The two Nordic countries have also experienced effects from the attack, with Russian jets violating both Swedish and Finnish airspace. The 30-member organization now hopes to send a message of unity to Russian President Vladimir Putin with the entrance of Finland and Sweden, which up until now have worked alongside NATO but remained strategically separate. The two new bids have garnered the full support of the Biden administration and are now set to easily receive the required two-thirds Senate approval.
Austin says Russian invasion of Ukraine ‘preview’ of ‘possible world of chaos’ - Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned in a speech on Friday that the ongoing Russian invasion in Ukraine is a “preview of a possible world of chaos and turmoil.”His remarks, made at the annual Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore come as the conflict in Ukraine has raged on for more than 100 days.“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is what happens when oppressors trample the rules that protect us all. It’s what happens when big powers decide that their imperial appetites matter more than the rights of their peaceful neighbors. And it’s a preview of a possible world of chaos and turmoil that none of us would want to live in,” Austin said.“So we understand what we could lose. We see the dangers of disorder,” he added. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky issued an equally somber note on Saturday during his own virtual address at the Singapore security summit, saying that global order was being decided on Ukraine’s battlefield.“I am grateful for your support… but this support is not only for Ukraine, but for you as well,” Zelensky said, according to Reuters. “It is on the battlefields of Ukraine that the future rules of this world are being decided along with the boundaries of the possible.”Zelensky has previously warned that “the fate of our Donbas is being decided there,” saying that the battle is “probably one of the most difficult throughout this war,” according to CNBC. On Friday, Austin also met with his Chinese counterpart on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue, warning that Beijing must “refrain from further destabilizing actions toward Taiwan.” The meeting of the Pentagon chief and Gen. Wei Fenghe, China’s minister of national defense,was their first face-to-face.
Congress just delivered major postal reform legislation, so why is the US Postal Service ignoring it? -After the massive mail slowdowns and postage hikes of 2021, Congress took action to financially stabilize the U.S. Postal Service by passing a historic, bipartisan postal reform bill. The bill freed the Postal Service from an unreasonable 2006 law demanding that it pre-fund retiree health benefits 75 years in advance—a requirement that put billions of dollars on the Postal Service’s balance sheet each year and motivated it to keep hiking postage rates while reducing services. Congress passed the 2022 postal reform legislation with the intent to strengthen this critical service and help the Postal Service avoid additional large rate increases and service cutbacks. However, Postal Service leadership has seemingly decided to stamp Congress’s message “return to sender.” The very same day President Biden signed the monumental postal reform legislation, Postmaster General Louis DeJoy announced his plans to increase postage prices at an “uncomfortable rate” for some time to come. Specifically, DeJoy and the Postal Board of Governors intend to increase stamp prices again in July, again next January, and as often as twice each year after that. And they can, thanks to a recent Postal Regulatory Commission ruling giving DeJoy the power to initiate postage rates that outpace inflation. In just a decade, Americans could be paying well over $1 to mail a single letter. Unless Congress takes action again to hold the Postal Service accountable, let’s just say we should all be buying “Forever Stamps” while they are still somewhat affordable.As a businessman and a fellow Republican, DeJoy should know that raising prices generates fewer customers and can lead to less revenue. The same holds true for unnecessary postage increases. They will not only deter individuals from using the mail, but will also drive away businesses, newspapers, nonprofits, and charities—all of which generate more than half of all postal revenues.The Postal Service already anticipates losing 42% of mail volume over the next decade, driven partly by massive rate increases. Additional unnecessary postage hikes could lead to a huge loss in revenue that will jeopardize the survival of the Postal Service itself and its workforce of 650,000 Americans, many of whom are veterans.Whether it brings something as special as a handwritten card or something as necessary as medication, the U.S. Postal Service is the only institution capable of going the last mile to reach, serve, and tangibly link every American. Some claim that private couriers like FedEx and UPS could replace the U.S. Postal Service, but that’s simply not true.The Postal Service is unique in that it’s obligated to serve every American. It processes more than 425 million pieces of mail (not including packages) each day, delivering them to and from a staggering 163 million delivery points in all of the country’s more than 41,000 zip codes. The Postal Service goes the last mile, no matter how rural or remote the address—and that’s something no private courier could, or would, do.
Congress Is Letting a School Lunch Program for 10 Million Poor Kids Expire - For two years, a program by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has offered federal waivers to guarantee free lunch year-round to American school children. The program, which has disproportionately supported kids in low-income communities of color, has allowed an estimated 10 million students to be able to eat lunch even when school is out during the summer, and was originally spawned thanks to concerns about how kids would get food during the covid pandemic.But the program is now set to come to an end within weeks when it expires on June 30, as Congress has failed to extend it.To be clear, like mass shootings in elementary schools and the state-sanctioned bullying of trans youth who want to participate in sports,inaccessible baby formula, and zero public child care options, letting kids go hungry in the wealthiest country in the world is a policy choice, and a truly abhorrent one at that. The cost of everything—including food—is on the rise, the pandemic is raging on, and as summer begins and school closes, unsaid numbers of kids are about to go hungry in America.According to a survey from prior to the pandemic, and prior to the USDA program, 75% of school districts in America have “unpaid student meal debt”—a term that simply should not exist. Feeding America has previouslyfound one in five food-insecure school children lives in a home ineligible for free or reduced lunch. The state of California alone has the most children with school meal debt (again, a term that should not fucking exist) at 327,686 children.In the absence of the waivers, students from low-income households can still technically access free lunches. But they’ll have to submit an application including their financial information, which the organization No Kid Hungry has described as “complicated,” and a source of embarrassment for kids, which can dissuade families from applying at all.The consequences of the end of the school lunch program will be devastating and immediate: No Kid Hungry director Jillien Meier has told The Guardianwe’re “going to see in real time the summer hunger crisis grow, and that’s going to give us a preview of what’s going to happen next school year.” One single mother of two also told the outlet that prior to the program, she’s had to “take the blow, not eating myself just to make sure my kids had enough to eat.” And research has long shown the harsh health, behavioral and educational consequences of kids going to school hungry. In a country that’s about to recognize embryos and small clumps of cells as human beings with more rights than pregnant people, born, living babies are being deprived of formula. School children are risking their lives every day just by going to school. And now, because we’re two years into the pandemic, everyone has given up, and public officials no longer care to hide their hatred of children, millions of school kids will soon go hungry.
As universal school meals program nears end, Biden eyes other ways to get food to school kids - Biden officials are working on a smaller effort to help schools buy select food products as the universal free school meals program Congress authorized during the Covid-19 pandemic approaches its expiration date, according to two people familiar with the plans.Administration officials are exploring using about $1 billion from an Agriculture Department fund to help schools purchase U.S. commodities for their meal programs. USDA did something similar last December, as districts struggled to find consistent sources of food amid ongoing supply chain disruptions from the pandemic.A USDA official not authorized to speak publicly on the matter confirmed the department intends to deploy the funds later this month, but final arrangements are still underway.“USDA is looking at every tool at its disposal to ease the burden the pandemic has caused on school districts, but the magnitude of this problem requires Congressional action,” a department spokesperson said in a statement. “School districts and American families need relief and Congress can provide that relief.”Biden officials are scrambling to come up with even a small amount of money for school meals, after Congress failed to extend the current school meal waivers universal it approved in the early months of Covid-19. Those waivers not only enabled schools to provide free meals to every student, regardless of income, which cut down on paperwork, but they allowed schools officials to buy any available food for school meals, regardless of federal nutrition requirements and without financial penalty. The waivers, however, expire on June 30. And administration officials acknowledge the impact will be huge, even if they release an additional $1 billion or so in funds to buy more food.School meal funding, like other government assistance offered during the pandemic, has been at the center of a political battle between Democrats and Republicans. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and most Republicans in Congress oppose any move to extend the funding, citing the significant cost — roughly $11 billion. Democrats and the White House were caught flat-footed by their opposition this spring, and have been scrambling in the months since to find an alternative before the expiration date. A group of senators, led by Agriculture Committee Chair Debbie Stabenow(D-Mich.), are still hoping to reach an agreement to fund a full extension of the waivers. Stabenow again pushed for an extension on the Senate floor Wednesday, but lamented that only two Republicans currently support such a move — Sens. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine. Stabenow is, however, talking with Republican Sen. John Boozman (Ark.), the top Republican on the Agriculture Committee, to try to reach some agreement, according to two people.
On student loans, why not challenge Republicans? - The WSJ reports that President Biden is delaying his decision on student loan forgiveness: President Biden is likely to decide later this summer whether to partially forgive student-loan debt for millions of borrowers, according to administration officials and others familiar with the matter, after the president said more than a month ago that he would weigh in on the issue in the next couple of weeks. The officials said Mr. Biden is likely to announce his plans in July or August, closer to when the pandemic-related pause in federal student loan payments is scheduled to lapse, as the president and his senior advisers continue to weigh the political and economic fallout of any such move. The Biden administration earlier this year extended the pause, which has been in effect since March 2020, until Sept. 1.Biden’s reluctance to act on this issue is understandable. The politics are unclear, and although policy reform is clearly needed it is far better to address the issue through legislation than executive action. Legislation can establish a sustainable, on-going program to provide financing for higher education and debt relief for struggling borrowers, and it will be much less vulnerable to reversal by the courts or the next administration. Legislation could also deal with important related issues, such as improving college graduation rates.But given that Biden has decided to wait, why not ask Congress – and specifically Republicans – to address the issue through bipartisan legislation? Then he can acknowledge that whatever plan he ultimately chooses is imperfect, and blame Republicans for obstructing progress and forcing him to use executive action to address student debt problems. I don’t think that messaging problems are at the heart of the Democrats’ short-term political struggles – the main problems are inflation and COVID, Republican obstructionism, and unrealistic expectations that the Democrats themselves encouraged. But given that Congress is evenly divided and hopelessly gridlocked, messaging is what they have, and it is critical to educate voters about the way our democracy works and the extremism of the Republican party.
Student Loan Pause: Biden Officials Hint At Another Extension, Potentially Tied To Student Loan Forgiveness -The federal student loan payment break is now entering its 27th month. The relief, first instituted through an executive order by President Trump and then set into law by Congress through the passage of the CARES Act in March 2020, also froze interest. Only federal student loans held by the government are covered, although the concurrent suspension of collection efforts against defaulting borrowers also applies to commercially held FFEL-program federal loans.Payment withholding and related other reliefs were originally intended to last for six months. But President Trump, and later President Biden, issued several short-lived extensions. Biden’s most recent extension continues through August 31, with payments due to resume in September. Biden officials have been suggesting for months that the August 31 deadline may be running out. And in public comments earlier this week, Education Secretary Miguel Cardona clarified that although no decision has been made, there could be a further extension of the student loan break.“We believe the economy has recovered, but many Americans are still struggling to meet their needs,” Cardona told senators during a formal subcommittee hearing. Cardona’s remarks came ahead of the release of new economic data showing that Inflation continues to rise With high food and gas prices, at historic rates, consumers are hit particularly hard.Cardona told senators that he didn’t have any concrete information on the decision about the student loan pause, “It could be that it has been extended. Or it could be that it begins.” [on September 1], But I would say that our borrowers will have enough notice. And we’ll talk to you about that too.”With less than 85 days before September 1, it is becoming increasingly impossible that the Department of Education will be able to provide borrowers with “substantial notice” about resuming student loan payments unless an extension is made. Meanwhile, the department is still making efforts to implement other important student loan relief initiatives, most of which will not be completed before August 31. This includes the limited PSLF waiver program that currently expires on October 31, as well as a new one. The IDR adjustment initiative which is not expected to be in full effect until at least January. The department is also in the process of implementing Operation FreshStart, an initiative to get all defaulting federal student loan borrowers back in good standing, but officials haven’t provided any projected timeline on those efforts.Other top Biden administration officials have suggested that any decision to extend the student loan payment break could be tied to a decision for comprehensive student loan forgiveness.President Biden and his top advisers are increasingly indicating that some form of comprehensive student loan forgiveness initiative is being seriously considered. While officials have repeatedly insisted that no final decision has been made, reports suggest the executive to implement $10,000 in student loan forgiveness for borrowers, with restrictions based on borrowers’ income. Biden has become more comfortable with using the action. Advocates for student loan collectors continue to push the administration to move forward, however, with higher amounts of student loan cancellations and no limits based on income. Last month, White House adviser Brian Deese Signal The potential inflationary effects of student loan stoppage and comprehensive student loan forgiveness will be a factor in the administration’s thinking. Deese suggested that any new student loan forgiveness initiatives could be linked to resuming student loan payments after the end of the student loan payment break.“When you look at the question of macroeconomic impact [of broad student loan forgiveness]… the resumption of payments will interact with any potential loan cancellations from a macroeconomic perspective,” Deese said. This week’s alarming new inflation data could further strengthen that outlook, showing prices rising 8.6 percent through May.
Congress targets Harvard, Yale and top universities with China-linked endowments - Congress first targeted U.S. universities’ Chinese state-backed Confucius Institutes, then their academic partnerships with China. Now, some in Congress are preparing to go after America’s top institutions of higher learning and their enormous endowments in potentially problematic Chinese companies.Rep. Greg Murphy (R-N.C.) is drafting legislation — the Protecting Endowments from Our Adversaries Act — designed to cut U.S. university endowment investments that fund abusive or hostile Chinese entities. Murphy doesn’t yet have co-sponsors for the bill, but told POLITICO that he expects “a lot of interest from a lot of folks in both houses.”On Thursday, Murphy sent a letter to the 15 private universities with the largest endowments — Harvard, Yale, Duke and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, among them — asking them to purge their investment portfolios of “entities that are supporting the imprisonment of Uyghur Muslims or aiding the Russian Federation’s horrific invasion of Ukraine.” Murphy also wants those schools to vet their endowment portfolios for any “adversarial entities” named on U.S. government sanction lists.A successful congressional push to sever U.S. university endowments from Chinese investments could provide a template for legislation requiring private sector investors, including private equity firms and hedge funds, to do likewise, downsizing the U.S. financial sector’s relationship with China.“Our colleges and universities which have been given a tax-free status do not need to be investing in this nation that wants to see our downfall,” Murphy told POLITICO. “I wanted to start with those institutions that have the biggest endowments and I think it will start a snowballing effect to other institutions.”Murphy is a China hawk with a record of past — but so far unsuccessful — legislative initiatives targeting malign Chinese influence on U.S. university campuses and on Capitol Hill. Murphy urged Attorney General Merrick Garland in January to revive the Department of Justice’s controversial China Initiative program in order to “root out any possible Chinese espionage” on college campuses.With Democrats in control, Murphy’s latest effort is unlikely to succeed in this Congress. But his letter is putting universities on notice that Congress wants a say in how they invest their endowments.
Democrats and Republicans Have One Thing in Common: Both Suck on Free Speech - Matt Taibbi - The Foundation for Individual Rights in Education, or FIRE, announced a major, $75 million campaign to boost free expression today. The move places the longtime agitator against campus speech codes in a role historically occupied by the American Civil Liberties Union, or ACLU. Since its founding in 1920, but particularly since its famed 1976 defense of neo-Nazi marchers in Skokie, Illinois, the ACLU has been a face of American liberalism, but shifted in recent years as its once-definitional issue, free speech, is increasingly cast out of the Democratic Party mainstream.FIRE’s expansion is great news for speech advocates, but likely wouldn’t have been necessary had attitudes toward speech not changed dramatically among liberal academics and among the ACLU’s primary donors, traditional Democrats. Moreover it’s not as simple as free speech moving now from being a blue value to a red one. What’s actually happened is far worse: tossed overboard by the blues, speech has been left without a consistent, principled champion on either side of the political aisle, as both parties have doubled or tripled down on the most idiotic forms of censorship lately, albeit in different ways.The Democrats’ collapse on speech is especially tragic because Republicans have almost always been terrible on this issue and weirdly still are now, even when so many of their voters are primary targets of “content moderation” schemes, and “Domestic Terrorism” legislation clearly aimed at its base.For decades, you could set your watch by the Republican embrace of censorship. There was nearly always a Republican pol in the vicinity of any campaign against unpopular speech, be it Al D’Amato and Jesse Helms taking on Andres Serrano’s “Piss Christ,” or congressmen Bob Ney and Walter Jones trying in total seriousness to ban the “French” half of what they demanded the House cafeteria call “Freedom Fries,” or even George W. Bush saying “Freedom is a two-way street” and “They shouldn’t have their feelings hurt just because some people don’t want to buy their records” after protesters drove tractors over piles of CDs by the Dixie Chicks.This script by all rights should have flipped once campuses, the executive ranks of Internet companies, and federal agencies like Joe Biden’s CDC began pushing increasingly draconian censorship concepts to “deplatform” right-wing or conservative ideas. One would think that at least out of rank opportunism, the GOP would get religion on speech principles. No such luck.
Bernie to Dems: Change course before you nosedive in November - Bernie Sanders has something to get off his chest: Without a course correction, he sees the Democratic Party on track to get shellacked this fall. As the progressive Vermonter, not one to mince words, put it in an interview on Tuesday: “You really can’t win an election with a bumper sticker that says: ‘Well, we can’t do much, but the other side is worse.’” “The Republicans stand an excellent chance of gaining control of the House and quite possibly the Senate,” Sanders said. While the GOP’s anti-abortion stance and opposition to more sweeping firearm restrictions may help Democrats, he warned that if they “think that they’re gonna march to victory based on those issues, I think that that is not correct.” With the majorities flashing before Democrats’ eyes, the independent who caucuses with them is asking his leadership, from President Joe Biden on down, to acknowledge that the party can’t actually do what it wants with two centrist senators as their deciding votes. After that real talk, Sanders wants Democrats to make the case for more Democratic power in 2023 — through a Newt Gingrich-style “Contract with America.” It’s a long-shot attempt to break the malaise hanging over the Democratic Party as Biden’s polling remains underwater and its senators grow nervous about holding their majority with Republicans favored to take the House. Many Democrats are hoping bad Republican candidates, a Biden rebound or a last-minute flurry of modest legislation could help save their congressional majorities. Sanders, though, is done with such happy thoughts. “Say to the American people: ‘Look, we don’t have the votes to do it right now. We have two corporate Democrats who are not going to be with us,’” Sanders said, referring to Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.). “The leadership has got to go out and say we don’t have the votes to pass anything significant right now. Sorry. You got 48 votes. And we need more to pass it. That should be the message of this campaign.”
Buttigieg tests positive for COVID --Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg on Monday said he had tested positive for COVID-19. “I have tested positive for COVID-19 and am experiencing mild symptoms. I plan to work remotely while isolating according to CDC guidelines, and look forward to when I can safely return to the office and the road,” he tweeted. The Transportation secretary has two infant children with his husband Chasten Buttigieg, with both children ineligible for COVID-19 vaccination due to their ages. Buttigieg made a public appearance as recently as Sunday, when he spoke on ABC’s “This Week” with George Stephanopoulos. Buttigieg quarantined for 14 days in February 2021 after a member of his security detail tested positive for the coronavirus. Email shows fake Trump electors in Georgia told to conduct plan in ‘secrecy’ McConaughey meets with lawmakers after op-ed on gun reform His office said around the same time that he had been vaccinated, making his case a breakthrough infection. The Department of Transportation told The Hill on Monday that Buttigieg had also received a booster dose of a COVID-19 vaccine and was following Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines. The department said he and President Biden have not been in close contact.
The U.S. has wasted over 82 million Covid vaccine doses - Pharmacies, states, U.S. territories and federal agencies discarded 82.1 million Covid vaccine doses from December 2020 through mid-May — just over 11 percent of the doses the federal government distributed, according to data the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shared with NBC News. That’s an increase from the 65 million doses the CDC told the Associated Press had been wasted as of late February.Two retail pharmacy chains, CVS and Walmart, were responsible for over a quarter of the doses thrown away in the United States in that time period, in part due to the sheer volume of vaccine they handled.Five other pharmacies or dialysis centers — Health Mart, DaVita, Rite Aid, Publix and Costco — wasted fewer overall doses, but a higher share: more than a quarter of the vaccine doses they received, well above the national average. Two states also discarded more than a quarter of their doses: Oklahoma, which tossed 28 percent of the nearly 4 million doses it received, and Alaska, which threw away almost 27 percent of its 1 million doses, according to the CDC data.The overall amount of waste is in line with World Health Organization estimates for large vaccination campaigns. But public health experts said the waste is still alarming at a time when less than half of fully vaccinated Americans have a booster shot — which is critical to fight newer, more contagious virus strains — and when many poorer countries continue to struggle with vaccine supply.“It’s a tremendous loss to pandemic control — especially in the context of millions of people around the world who haven’t even been able to get a first dose,” said Dr. Sheela Shenoi, an infectious disease expert at the Yale School of Medicine.The millions of wasted vaccine doses include some that expired on pharmacy shelves before they could be used, others that were spoiled by the thousands when power went out or freezers broke, and still others that were tossed at the end of the day when no one wanted the last few doses in an opened vial.Unlike most other immunizations in the U.S., the coronavirus vaccines come in multidose vials, which means all the doses must be used within hours once the vials are opened — or discarded.State health officials and pharmacies said that’s been a major contributor to vaccine waste. Some also said the vaccines come in such large minimum orders that they are left with more than they need.Some pharmacies, including CVS and Rite Aid, said their priority has been offering the vaccine on demand. If getting a shot into an arm means opening a new vial and wasting the unused doses, that’s a tradeoff they’re willing to make.CVS wasted nearly 11.8 million doses, or about 13 percent of the 89.9 million it received. The share of doses discarded is just above the national average, but in total still amounts to more wasted doses than any other pharmacy or state.
Biden White House discusses how many daily COVID deaths would be acceptable to declare the pandemic over -A report in Politico Monday sheds light on the ruthless and cynical effort by the Biden White House to convince Americans that the COVID pandemic has officially ended. Citing three sources, the website reports internal conversations among Biden aides as to what would be a “general metric” for daily COVID death figures that would be acceptable to the public and provide the basis to declare the pandemic over. This would come from the president who declared last summer that America had entered a period of “freedom” from COVID, to be followed by a deluge of infections and deaths that stunned the population and pushed the health care system once more to the brink of collapse. COVID vaccines were being hailed as decisive in lifting the country out of the pandemic, but while effective, they provided only limited relief. Politico reported that “the discussions, which took place across the administration, and have not been previously disclosed, involved a scenario in which 200 or fewer Americans die per day, a target kicked around before officials ultimately decided not to incorporate it into pandemic planning.” Politico remarked, “the discussions represented at least a nascent effort to create a framework for a post-COVID world. One of the three people involved in the conversations last year said it was an effort to gauge what the American public would ‘tolerate.’ ‘Five hundred a day is a lot. You still have 9/11 numbers in a week,’ the person said. ‘People generally felt like 100 [a day] or less, or maybe 200, would be ok.’” What is such talk? These cold-blooded calculations show representatives of the White House, supposedly sworn to protect and defend the population, speaking like insurance executives who are determining the cost of their payouts versus income from premiums. It is clear from the casual character of these discussions that such barbaric mathematics are part of everyday life in the top circles of the Biden administration. And while the death toll from COVID is calculated in the tens and hundreds of thousands, the death toll from an all-out war with nuclear-armed Russia or China will be tallied in the millions, if not billions.The White House conversation sounds like something out of Stanley Kubrick’s macabre Dr. Strangelove. When General “Buck” Turgidson, played by George C. Scott, advocates a preemptive nuclear attack on the Soviet Union, he tells the president, “I’m not saying we wouldn’t get our hair mussed. But I do say no more than 10 to 20 million killed, tops. Uh, depending on the breaks.”Clearly, the Biden administration is seeking to extricate itself from the COVID pandemic by relegating it to just another seasonal virus and diverting attention from the continued threat posed by SARS-CoV-2, which currently continues to infect close to 110,000 people each day and kill more than 300 daily.
Airline officials press Biden to end COVID-19 testing for international travelers - Airline industry officials and lawmakers are pressing the Biden administration to drop pre-departure COVID-19 testing requirements for vaccinated international travelers, arguing the mandate is costing the sector billions of dollars in revenue each month. Many other countries have dropped such requirements, and industry leaders argue the policy does not match the threat posed by the virus. Lawmakers are also pushing the Biden administration to drop the testing requirement, which has been in place since January 2021. “We need to do everything we can. … Amending international travel restrictions is necessary,” Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) said at a Senate transportation subcommittee hearing Tuesday. “We have heard from industry leaders … to better understand how Congress can be helpful and when we need to get the federal government out of the way.” Even as domestic travel has rebounded from pandemic-era lows, international travel to the U.S. has lagged behind. Industry officials told lawmakers Tuesday that the greatest inhibitor of international travel is the testing requirement. “The testing requirement is impacting people’s willingness to travel and puts the U.S. at risk of falling behind other countries,” said Suzanne Neufang, the CEO of the Global Business Travel Association. The U.S. does not require vaccinated international travelers entering the country via land to submit pre-departure testing results. A May poll conducted by Morning Consult found that 46 percent of international respondents would be more likely to travel to the U.S. if the pre-departure testing requirement was dropped.
US to lift COVID testing requirement for air travelers entering country: White House official - The Biden administration is lifting pre-departure COVID-19 testing requirements for international travelers to the United States, according to a senior White House official. Effective Sunday, June 12, those traveling to the U.S. will no longer need a negative COVID-19 test one day before their flight to the country. "We are able to take this step because of the tremendous progress we’ve made in our fight against the virus," the official told ABC News. "We have made lifesaving vaccines and treatments widely available and these tools are working to prevent serious illness and death, and are effective against the prevalent variants circulating in the U.S. and around the world." Initially, the Biden administration had required fully vaccinated travelers, including U.S. citizens, to show proof of a negative test within three days of travel and unvaccinated people to show a negative test within one day of travel. But the rules were strengthened to showing proof of a negative test within one day of travel, regardless of vaccination status, as the omicron variant spread across the U.S. and the world. The official said the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will do a reassessment of the rule in 90 days and then an ongoing basis. If a new variant emerges, the CDC may consider reinstating the pre-departure testing requirement. "We’re committed to continuing to ensure the safety of Americans here at home and international air travel," the official said. "CDC will continue to recommend COVID-19 testing prior to air travel of any kind, and we will be working with the airlines and other partners to ensure a smooth transition.
CDC director signs order ending COVID-19 testing requirement for international travelers - Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Rochelle Walensky signed an order on Friday to end a requirement for international travelers to show a negative COVID-19 test or proof of recovery from the virus before boarding flights to the United States. The order, which becomes effective on Sunday at 12:01 a.m., acknowledged that the United States was in a different phase of the pandemic than when the requirement was put in place last year.“The Order was one of several actions taken by the federal government during earlier phases of the COVID-19 pandemic to help mitigate the further transmission and spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants into and within the United States. At that time, CDC concluded that it was a reasonable and necessary measure in light of the increased risk of transmission and spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants by international air travel into the United States, as well as the low rate of vaccination and infection-induced immunity in the United States, and emergence of new variants of concern,” the order noted. “Since then, many circumstances have changed, including the widespread uptake of effective COVID-19 vaccines and accompanying vaccine- and infection-induced immunity, as well as the availability of effective therapeutics,” it added. The Biden administration had announced earlier on Friday that the requirement would be rescinded, with a senior administration official saying that the CDC had “determined based on the science and data that this requirement is no longer necessary at this time.” The decision to end the requirement was lauded by travel and airline groups. It comes after a national mask mandate was quashed by a federal judge in April. The Biden administration asked for that judge’s ruling to be overturned in a brief it filed with a federal appeals court late last month, according to NPR.
The CDC raises its alert on the global monkeypox outbreak to level 2, but abruptly drops the use of facemasks for infection prevention -- On Monday the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) raised its monkeypox alert to level two, meaning travelers should “practice enhanced precautions.” Specifically, avoid close contact with sick people, including anyone with skin or genital lesions. Additionally, the CDC asks that travelers avoid contact with contaminated material used by sick people like clothing and bedding.The CDC had also included in their guidance the wearing of facemasks to help prevent the spread of the virus. The guidance bluntly stated that facemasks could help protect against “many diseases, including monkeypox.” However, the CDC abruptly removed this recommendation later the same day.According to Reuters, a spokesman for the CDC said on Tuesday, “Late yesterday, CDC removed the mask recommendation from the monkeypox travel health notice because it caused confusions.” Their explanation for the about-face was that the rare disease had been mostly transmitted through sexual contact and therefore never warranted the mask-wearing precaution.The CDC neglected, however, to explain that health care workers treating patients with monkeypox in hospitals must take precautions against airborne infection, including wearing face masks. Indeed, recent evidence that has emerged in the last decade (discussed below) suggests that airborne transmission of monkeypox is quite possible. Keeping the mask recommendation would also underline the glaring contradiction with their guidance for COVID, a far more transmissible and far more deadly disease than monkeypox, which continues to surge across the country, under conditions where mask-wearing has been virtually abandoned.
Must-pass health bills give Congress (another) chance to lower drug costs -Across partisan and ideological lines, Americans agree the cost of life-saving medications is out of control. Given the number of Americans who rely on these drugs and their skyrocketing costs, this sentiment is understandable.According to a survey released by the Kaiser Family Foundation last month, 62 percent of all Americans report currently taking at least one prescription medication, while 83 percent say the cost of prescription drugs is unreasonable. It is not surprising that Americans feel this way, given that the cost of brand name prescription drugs has more than tripled in the last 10 years, according to the AARP Public Policy Institute.Brand drug companies will argue that these price increases are justified to cover the enormous research and development costs that go into new drugs and treatments. The problem with that argument is it ignores the amount of taxpayer-funded research through the National Institutes of Health that contributes to the development of these drugs and treatments. It also ignores the fact that older, off-patent drugs that have not been updated are also seeing dramatic price increases, because of lack of competition.The cause of this prescription drug crisis is clear. Brand name pharmaceutical companies are putting profits ahead of public health, and patients are paying the price. It is time for Congress to step in and limit the ability of these companies to get rich on the backs of patients. One way to do this is to make it easier for generic drugs and biosimilars to enter the market. These drugs are just as safe and effective as brand name prescription drugs, but they cost less money. According to the Association for Accessible Medicines, the average brand-name co-pay is $55.82, while the average generic co-pay comes in at $6.61. In fact, 93 percent of generic prescriptions are filled for $20 or less. Not surprisingly, brand pharmaceutical companies do everything they can to prevent generics and biosimilars from reaching the market.
Hospital complications kill thousands per year – CMS shouldn’t hide that data -- In February, four leaders from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) made a dismaying announcement in the pages of a leading medical journal: “Since the pandemic began, U.S. health care safety has declined severely.” They said a decade’s worth of progress in patient safety had evaporated. The leaders pledged to focus on patient safety as a top federal priority. Apparently, somebody in the Medicare program didn’t get the memo. Just two short months later, CMS proposed rules that, if finalized, will move us backward, not forward on patient safety. CMS proposed to suppress the data on 10 avoidable errors and accidents in hospitals that kill almost 25,000 people a year. That would mean the public could not compare hospital performance on more than half the measures of harm CMS makes available to the public.Contained in a composite called PSI-90, the complications include preventable complications from surgery like blood leakage, kidney harm, breathing failure, sepsis, wounds that split open, and accidental cuts and tears, as well as preventable complications from medical care such as deep bed sores, lung collapse, falls that break a hip, and blood clots.The risk of suffering one of these excruciating events is not the same for all patients. For all 10 complications, patients are at least twice as likely to encounter them if they use the worst hospital instead of the best. For instance, patients are four times more likely to die from a preventable blood clot and nine times more likely to have a surgical hemorrhage if they choose the wrong hospital. If CMS suppresses this data, patients will have no way of knowing their risk of death or harm at their local hospital.Race and ethnicity play a role in patient risk as well. For instance, in a groundbreaking report analyzing millions of claims, Urban Institute researchers found that hospitalized Black patients were far more likely than their white counterparts to suffer from many of these medical and surgical complications, even at the same hospital. Black patients had a 27 percent higher rate of experiencing sepsis after an operation and a 15 percent higher rate of experiencing a kidney injury requiring dialysis.CMS argues that it would be inappropriate to use and publicly release this patient safety data because of COVID, which makes it difficult to fairly calculate the data. We all recognize that hospitals were under tremendous strain in 2020 and 2021 during the peak of the pandemic. We respect the sacrifices health care workers made. But that doesn’t make it right to hide the data on what happened.
Senators say they need more time on gun talks -Senate negotiators say they are making progress toward a deal to address gun violence, but they aren’t there yet. Sen. John Cornyn (Texas), the lead Republican negotiator, on Monday said negotiators are “hovering above the target” but haven’t nailed down anything. Cornyn said negotiators need at least another week to resolve their differences and urged Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.), who has warned he will only give negotiators a short period of time to reach a deal, not to rush anything to the floor. “Good consensus legislation takes time,” Cornyn said in remarks on the Senate floor. “So I hope Sen. Schumer will let his members work. There’s no use in rushing a vote on a doomed partisan bill like the House is expected to vote on this week.” The House is set to vote this week on legislation to raise the legal age for buying some semi-automatic rifles to 21, create tax incentives for gun dealers to create safe storage equipment and ban the sale of large-capacity magazines. But that legislation is doomed in the Senate, where it will not garner the 60 votes necessary to overcome a filibuster. Senate negotiators say proposals to ban assault-style rifles, such as the AR-15–style weapons that were used in recent mass shootings in Buffalo, N.Y., and Uvalde, Texas, and to require background checks for all gun sales and transfers are off the table. Instead, they are focused on more modest proposals to encourage states to set up red flag laws, promote safe storage of firearms and provide more money to address mental health. They are also looking at strengthening and reforming the background check process and raising the minimum age for purchasing an AR-15–style rifle from 18 years old to 21.
Senators want Biden to stay out of gun talks --Senate negotiators working to come to an agreement on gun violence legislation are asking the White House to stay out of the talks. Some have said that President Biden’s involvement wouldn’t be “helpful” after he called on Congress to pass gun control measures, some of which aren’t even supported by all 50 Democrats. The White House spent much of last week going back and forth about how much involvement, if any, the administration would have in the talks, eventually settling on messaging that the president would give Congress space to negotiate. Then an about-face came on Thursday when Biden gave a prime-time speech calling on Congress to pass a host of measures that lawmakers say are not part of the negotiations, resulting in some head-scratching over the direction the White House was heading on the matter. Sen. Chris Murphy (Conn.), the lead Democratic negotiator on gun violence talks, indicated that although he has been in communication with the White House about the negotiations, even Democrats on Capitol Hill think discussions have a better chance of bearing fruit without the involvement of the president or his team. “I think the Senate needs to do this ourselves,” Murphy said on CNN on Sunday. “I have talked to the White House every single day since these negotiations began. But right now, the Senate needs to handle these negotiations.” Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle, including Democrats and Republicans directly involved in the talks, have expressed some optimism — and caution — about whether any deal could be reached on gun violence legislation following the killing of 19 children at an elementary school in Uvalde, Texas. Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y) has given lead negotiators a deadline of this week to reach an agreement, which Murphy emphasized needs to happen within that time frame. The Senate is in for the next three weeks before it takes off for the July 4 recess. Stewart Verdery, who helped negotiate crime and gun legislation when he was a Senate leadership and Judiciary Committee counsel, argued that pressure from the president on Capitol Hill could be counterproductive. “The Senate may not work as intended as much as it used to, but it still works best in cases where there is not a statutory deadline for action when a bipartisan group can find compromise without public badgering by a president,”
Manchin: ‘Makes sense’ to raise age for buying semi-automatic rifles --Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) said in an interview Monday that it “makes sense” to raise the age from 18 to 21 for buying semi-automatic rifles.Speaking to CNN’s Manu Raju, Manchin said he supports raising the purchase age for such weapons following the elementary school massacre in Uvalde, Texas, carried out by an 18-year-old suspect who legally purchased two rifles.“We know we can do something that would have prevented this. Raising the age, making sure that the age at least gives us a chance to work with that person, see and evaluate if they have a little maturity to them,” Manchin said Monday.Manchin added he’s “open to doing something that makes sense” regarding age-based restrictions, adding he believes raising the minimum age to purchase semi-automatic weapons could potentially curb gun violence.The moderate West Virginia senator also told CNN that while he “likes to shoot” he has never felt the need to own an AR-15 rifle.“I never thought I had a need for that type of hyper-high-capacity automatic weapon. I like to shoot, I like to go out and hunt. I like to go out sport shooting. I do all that. But I’ve never felt I needed something of that magnitude,” he said. A bipartisan group of senators has been discussing a range of measures recently, including expanded background checks, following the shooting in Uvalde and other mass shootings.The House is scheduled to vote on a bill that would nationalize so-called red flag laws, which are aimed at keeping firearms away from those who are a threat to themselves or others. However, there is skepticism that the legislation can get through the Senate.Manchin said that red flag laws “do work as long as there is due process.”
Dems' big bet on guns: Take a narrow deal now, push GOP later - Senate Democrats acknowledge bipartisan gun safety talks will fall far short of what they want. They’re desperate for a deal anyway — and seem willing to take whatever the GOP will give them. Whatever the negotiations among a handful of members in both parties amount to, this much is already assured: There will be no assault weapons ban and no universal background checks. Expanded background checks are a long shot, as is raising the age needed to buy firearms to 21. And while Democrats surely want those policies to become law, they are not dictating what the bare minimum on gun safety should be. Asked why not, Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) replied: “I don’t think that’s a productive way for us to look at it.” “There are no red lines … I give my proxy to both Chris Murphy and Martin Heinrich on the two different working groups to speak for me,” said Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), who is urging those two Democratic senators to prioritize gun trafficking in negotiations. “I will fully support anything they get done. Because at this point, we just have to move something forward. And I want anything that’s positive to move forward,” she added. “And I think now is the time to do whatever can be done and then work on a larger majority to do the rest.” After already forcing the GOP to publicly reject voting rights and abortion access legislation this year, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is giving Murphy (D-Conn.) an enormous amount of breathing room to cut a guns deal with Republican senators. It’s a pragmatic turn, reflecting how differently the guns issue plays among a 50-member Democratic caucus that’s tried to attract GOP support to gun legislation for nearly a decade now.Though they don’t emphasize it publicly, Democrats believe there’s a good chance that internal GOP divisions scuttle any gun safety deal in the end. That means they barely have to lift a finger to watch the issue vex Republicans. And so Democratic leaders are placing no limits on the negotiations, despite their strong feelings about approving more restrictive gun laws. Schumer allows that getting GOP buy-in is a “difficult hurdle to overcome” but is not setting hard deadlines.
‘I don’t want it to happen again’: Texas school shooting survivor pleads with Congress - When the shooter arrived, Miah Cerrillo and her classmates hid behind their teacher’s desk and several backpacks. The gunman shot Cerrillo’s teacher in the head, the Robb Elementary fourth-grader told a House oversight committee on Wednesday. He shot some of Cerrillo’s classmates, including a friend who was hiding next to her. Cerrillo smeared blood on herself to hide from the shooter, she said via a video recording piped into the panel’s chambers. Then she grabbed her dead teacher’s phone and dialed 911.“I don’t want it to happen again,” she said.Cerrillo’s brief recounting of an attack that killed 19 children and two teachers last month marked a wrenching point in an emotional morning of testimony on Capitol Hill, as congressional Democrats convened a hearing on gun violence following mass shootings in a Buffalo, N.Y., grocery store and the elementary school in Uvalde, Texas.Witnesses at the hearing included Felix and Kimberly Rubio, the parents of10-year-old Lexi Rubio, who died in the school attack. Zeneta Everhart, mother to one of Buffalo’s injured victims, also addressed lawmakers. Roy Guerrero, an Uvalde pediatrician who treated wounded schoolchildren, also testified.But as national security officials warned future domestic attacks could target schools, churches and public gatherings amid a point of high tension in American politics — and as an array of education organizations clamor for expanded federal gun safety laws — Senate Democrats acknowledge bipartisan negotiations will fall far short of what they want.
House Republicans dig in as Dems pass gun package - With House Democrats having passed a sweeping gun reform package Wednesday and senators working on an elusive compromise, House Republicans are on a totally different page — sounding the alarm on attempts to “destroy the Second Amendment.”“You better believe I am going to have a way to protect myself. I will continue to carry,” Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) pledged, calling it her “great equalizer.”That’s a stark contrast from Republicans across the Capitol, where Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has blessed a bipartisan group that is trying to craft a narrower deal, with 10 senators meeting for about an hour Wednesday.The split-screen dichotomy on gun reforms in the wake of high-profile mass shootings is underscoring one of the fundamental truths of Washington: House and Senate Republicans belong to the same party, but they frequently tune out the other chamber. The two are taking different approaches to the Jan. 6 hearings and House Republicans largely balked at deals on infrastructure, funding the government and the debt ceiling that were negotiated by Senate Republicans.The House legislation — which passed 223-204 — raises the age for purchasing semi-automatic rifles from 18 to 21, bans high-capacity magazines, requires a background check for buying a “ghost gun” and includes safe storage requirements for firearms.“The Senate and the House are different places and people have their own districts and there’s a lot of diversity,” Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), a key negotiator on gun talks, said in a brief interview. That’s not to say the Senate GOP is entirely gung-ho, either. Despite backing from GOP leadership, some members raised concerns broadly about the discussions during a private caucus lunch Wednesday, according to several attendees. One GOP senator, granted anonymity to speak candidly, asked after the lunch: “Why the hell are we doing this?”
House passes red flag gun legislation in mainly party-line vote - The House passed a bill on Thursday to nationalize red flag laws, which seek to keep guns away from individuals deemed a threat to themselves and others. The legislation, dubbed the Federal Extreme Risk Protection Order, passed in a 224-202 vote. Two Republicans did not vote. Five Republicans — Reps. Fred Upton (Mich.), Adam Kinzinger (Ill.), Anthony Gonzalez (Ohio), Brian Fitzpatrick (Pa.) and Chris Jacobs (N.Y.) — bucked the GOP in voting for the measure, and Democratic Rep. Jared Golden (Maine) broke from the party in opposing the bill. Passage of the measure came one day after the House cleared a sweeping gun package that, among other provisions, called for raising the minimum age to purchase a semi-automatic weapon from 18 to 21 and banning civilian use of high-capacity magazine. Both pieces of legislation were brought up in response to last month’s mass shootings in Buffalo, N.Y., and Uvalde, Texas. The red flag bill — introduced by Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Ga.), whose son died by gun violence in 2012 — would authorize family members and law enforcement officers to petition U.S. district courts to issue federal extreme protection orders that would temporarily prohibit individuals from purchasing or possessing firearms. Red flag laws already exist in 19 states and the District of Columbia. Sens. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) and Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) introduced a companion bill in 2018. The Senate has been engaged in bipartisan gun negotiations following the pair of mass shootings, but the chamber has not yet introduced any proposals. Red flag laws, however, have emerged as a consensus point among members of both parties. The orders can either be short-term, lasting for a maximum of 14 days and issued without a hearing, or long-term, remaining in existence for 180 days and requiring a hearing to be issued.
Conservatives lay off Senate gun negotiations - As bipartisan talks on a gun safety package continue, conservatives are pointedly not trying to derail them. Several, in fact, seem open to supporting a modest deal. And Republicans are considering some ideas that would have been a non-starter just a month ago, particularly more scrutiny of gun buyers’ juvenile records. Summing up the view of conservatives at the moment, Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.) said: “I’m a gun owner and I use them a lot. And I think it hurts the Second Amendment over time if you don’t do the stuff [that] makes sense.” The next two weeks will determine whether the Senate GOP embraces what would — despite its narrow parameters — be the biggest gun bill in decades. Many conservatives are expected to oppose any final agreement, if one can come to the floor. But until then, some surprising voices in the party say they are open to what’s being discussed. Referring to the Texas shooting of 19 children and two teachers, Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) said Republicans have “got to keep the integrity of the Constitution, but we all understand the significance of what happened. And what will happen again.” That attitude across the aisle is precisely why Senate Democrats are willing to take just about whatever Republicans will give them in small-group talks among Sens. John Cornyn (R-Texas), Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.). The quartet met again on Thursday afternoon and plan to speak again on Friday. Cornyn said Thursday that “there is a possibility we will wrap up our remaining issues, but no guarantee.” While some conservatives have questioned the talks privately in party meetings, they’re not publicly berating the negotiations. As Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) put it: “We’re going to wait and see what kind of [plan] comes out of the discussions.”
‘well-regulated militia,’ not a private citizen militia - Justice Scalia wrote in 2008 in District of Colombia v. Heller; the right to own a gun is “not unlimited.” For that reason, the Supreme Court held that state and federal authorities can bar firearms from schools and public buildings, while the people remain free to prohibit what Scalia called “dangerous and unusual weapons.”Adrian Fontes is a Democratic candidate for Secretary of State in Arizona and the former Maricopa County Recorder. His history includes being a U.S. Marine Marksmanship Instructor. I know a lot about the third point and maybe someone can enlighten us on the first two points. A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed. 2nd Amendment. The absolutists want you to know the facts. If it is not spelled out in the text of the Constitution, “the government has no authority to do it.”If you do not believe the Constitution is a living document and are an originalist, that can be true. The 2nd amendment’s language came after the U.S. Constitution. The Constitution already defined a Militia’s place in the new country. Article I, Section 8 is the portion of the constitution spelling out what the government has the authority to do. Here is what it says Congress may do:To provide for calling forth the Militia to execute the Laws of the Union, suppress Insurrections and repel Invasions; Article I, Section 8, Clause 15. Fontes: “The Militia, in the context of our Constitution, is enforcing the laws of the Union. In other words. militias work for the government, not some fantasy.”To provide for organizing, arming, and disciplining, the Militia, and for governing such Part of them as may be employed in the Service of the United States, reserving to the States respectively, the Appointment of the Officers, and the Authority of training the Militia according to the discipline prescribed by Congress; Article 1, Section 8, Clause 16.Notice the words “Service of the United States” and “Congress.” So, yes the banning of assault style weapons is legal in the US. The other part of this is a bullet-spewing-weapon owner is not a militia. Article 1 Section 8 Clauses 15 and 16 explains what constitutes a militia. Claiming you are a militia does not entitle you to own an assault style weapon or to live a fantasy.
Kyle Rittenhouse posts video of himself firing off a slew of bullets from an automatic firearm, declaring: 'Joe Biden, you're not coming for our guns' - Kyle Rittenhouse on Monday posted a video of himself firing what appeared to be an automatic firearm before saying President Joe Biden couldn't take away Americans' guns.Rittenhouse posted the video on Twitter with the caption, "Come and take 'em, Joe." The video appeared to show Rittenhouse firing off a slew of bullets from an automatic weapon while at a shooting range.After stepping back from the gun and being patted on the back, Rittenhouse gives a thumbs-up and says: "Joe Biden, you're not coming for our guns." Rittenhouse fatally shot two men and injured a third amid protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, in August 2020. He was acquitted in November of five charges, including first-degree homicide.
Pelosi: House will vote next week to boost security for SCOTUS families - The House will vote next week on legislation to expand security for the families and staff of the Supreme Court justices, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) announced Thursday. The Senate approved the legislation unanimously last month, and House Republicans have fumed that House Democrats have delayed the vote in the lower chamber — anger fueled by this week’s arrest of an armed man near the home of Justice Brett Kavanaugh. House Democrats were eyeing a Thursday vote on a version of the legislation, but lingering disagreements between the House and Senate caused leadership to scrap that idea in favor of bringing the proposal to the floor when Congress returns to Washington next week. Pelosi said it will happen quickly. “We had hoped that we could do it today but we certainly will do it at the beginning of next week,” Pelosi said during a press briefing in the Capitol. Supreme Court justices already have federal protection. The issue of expanding it to include families and staff gained prominence last month after Politico published a draft ruling by the court’s conservative majority that would eliminate the protections provided by Roe v. Wade, the landmark 1973 decision establishing the constitutional right to abortion. The news has energized activists on both sides of the issue, and some pro-abortion-rights protesters have staged demonstrations outside the homes of several conservative Supreme Court justices. The Senate bill, sponsored by Sens. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Chris Coons (D-Del.), would expand the domain of the Supreme Court Police to include immediate family members of the nine justices and “any” other court officers “if the Marshal determines such protection is necessary.” House Democrats have sought to expand that jurisdiction even further to include the families not only of the justices, but also the staff, if the Marshal deems it appropriate. It’s that distinction that has caused the House delay. “We’re working together on the bill that the Senate will be able to approve of,” Pelosi said. “We can pass whatever we want here. We want it to be able to pass the Senate.”
Biden pledges executive orders on abortion. His options are limited. - President Joe Biden says he’s looking at ways to shore up abortion rights if the Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade in the coming weeks, but the White House has not given specifics and legal experts say there’s little he can do to stop states that want to outlaw the procedure.Biden said on “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” Wednesday night that his team is looking at possible executive orders, but avoided specifics. Echoing Democratic congressional leaders, who have tried unsuccessfully to codifyRoe’s protections and override state bans, Biden largely focused his remarks on electing more abortion-rights supporters to Congress in the November midterms.“It’s clear that if, in fact, the decision comes down the way it does and these states impose the limitations they’re talking about, it’s going to cause a mini revolution and they’re going to vote a lot of these folks out of office,” the president predicted.Yet many Democratic officials and abortion-rights activists fear the party is unlikely to pick up enough seats in the midterms to pass comprehensive abortion-rights legislation. And even if it can, many fear that waiting until a new Congress is seated in January will be too late to prevent the harm they expect if tens of millions of people lose access to abortion.While Biden has few options to preserve abortion access in states determined to restrict it, there are actions his administration can take to bolster reproductive health rights, including making it easier to obtain abortion medication, protecting patient privacy and making sure more people can afford and access contraception, according to lawmakers and abortion-rights groups.Earlier this week, 25 senators wrote to Biden pleading with him to drop the remaining FDA restrictions on abortion pills, which include a requirement that any pharmacy that distributes the drug obtain a special license. They also called for travel vouchers and other financial support to people crossing state lines for the procedure, cracking down on the states that are trying to drop Planned Parenthood from their Medicaid programs, ramping up protections around digital health data that could be used to prosecute people who have abortions, and exploring whether abortions could be offered on federally owned properties even in states that implement bans. Democrats in Congress are also lobbying the Pentagon to allow service members who are stationed in states likely to ban abortion to take leave to travel for the procedure.Abortion-rights advocates have also called on the Biden administration to issue tougher HIPAA guidance to prevent medical workers from reporting people they suspect of having abortions to law enforcement — something that’s already happening in Texas and other states. They also want stricter enforcement of widespread violations of Obamacare’s contraception mandate — one of several steps they’re calling for that could help prevent unwanted pregnancies.
Massive Migrant Caravan Targeting Texas Could Be Biggest One Yet - With their eyes on Texas, a massive new migrant caravan is underway in southern Mexico. It's the largest of 2022 and—thanks in part to Mexican government accommodations—it might soon be the biggest one on record. Many previous caravans have crumbled in sometimes-violent confrontations with National Guard troops, or upon reaching internal checkpoints where migrants are prevented from crossing Mexican state borders for lack of visas.However, caravan organizer Luis Villigran told Fox News the Mexican government has committed to start issuing 1,000 temporary work visas a day to the migrants he's leading northward. That will certainly ease migrants' progress. At the same time, by authorizing migrants to work in Mexico's northern states—where employment opportunities are more plentiful than in the south—the visas give migrants some reason to stay south of the U.S. border. With numbers already estimated at 12,000 or more, the caravan departed the far-southwest Mexico border city of Tapachula on Monday, blocking multiple highway lanes as it began a thousand-mile journey to the Texas border. Organizers plan to make most of the trek by traveling along Mexico's eastern coast. The caravan includes people from a variety of countries, with Venezuelans reportedly representing a large share. Venezuela's struggle to rebound from disastrous economic policies is made harder by U.S. sanctions that are meant to punish the regime but which end up making innocent citizens miserable—and encouraging migration to the United States.Villagran claims nearly 70% of the caravan are women and children, but photos in news accounts frequently depict crowds of adult males.
73% Of Trump Voters Believe Dems Are Trying To Replace White Americans With Immigrants Who Vote For Them; New Poll Finds - A new poll by YouGov finds that 73 per cent of Trump voters believe that Democrats are trying to replace white Americans with immigrants and people of color who overwhelmingly vote for Democrats.
Supreme Court shields Border Patrol agents from excessive force suits - The Supreme Court on Wednesday ruled that Border Patrol agents are generally shielded from lawsuits that allege the use of excessive force, the latest in a series of decisions narrowing the legal avenue for alleged victims of abuse by federal officers. The 6-3 ruling, penned by Justice Clarence Thomas, broke along ideological lines, with the court’s conservatives comprising a majority over the dissent of the court’s three liberals. The case concerned whether a lawsuit should be allowed to move forward against a Border Patrol agent accused of using excessive force during his search of an inn located just south of the U.S.-Canada border. The conservative majority, citing national security concerns, declined to extend a judge-made rule that allows plaintiffs to sue federal officers for certain constitutional violations. That relief, based on a precedent set by Bivens v. Six Unknown Named Agents, is generally disfavored by judicial conservatives. “Because matters intimately related to foreign policy and national security are rarely proper subjects for judicial intervention,” Thomas wrote, “we reaffirm that a Bivens cause of action may not lie where, as here, national security is at issue.” The dispute decided Wednesday arose in 2014 when Customs and Border Patrol Agent Erik Egbert entered the property of an inn located in Blaine, Wash., near the U.S.-Canada border, and refused to leave after a request from innkeeper Robert Boule and despite having no search warrant. Boule alleges that Egbert shoved him, which prompted Boule to lodge a complaint with Egbert’s supervisors. According to Boule’s account, Egbert later retaliated by asking the IRS to investigate Boule. Boule sued, alleging violations of his First and Fourth Amendment rights.
DHS policy encouraging discretion in deportations blocked by judge - A judge in Texas on Friday threw out a policy instituted by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) last year that directed border officials to exercise discretion in deportation cases.Introduced last September, the policy encourages officials not to deport noncitizens who have lived in the country for years without incident and to focus on those who have a serious criminal record.In a scathing 96-page ruling, U.S. District Judge Drew Tipton argued that the policy overstepped the executive branch’s authority regarding immigration enforcement.“True, the Executive Branch has case-by-case discretion to abandon immigration enforcement as to a particular individual. This case, however, does not involve individualized decisionmaking. Instead, this case is about a rule that binds Department of Homeland Security officials in a generalized, prospective manner—all in contravention of Congress’s detention mandate,” Tipton, an appointee of former President Trump, wrote.Last September, DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas argued both that the policy was just, saying most undocumented immigrants “have been contributing members of our communities for years,” and that it was needed due to limited resources. “The fact that an individual is a removable noncitizen should not alone be the basis of an enforcement action against them,” he added. “We focus our resources because they are limited, and because of our dedication to doing justice.” Tipton pushed back on the argument for the policy based on resource limitations in his ruling.“It is also true that the Executive Branch may prioritize its resources. But it must do so within the bounds set by Congress. Whatever the outer limits of its authority, the Executive Branch does not have the authority to change the law,” he said.
Prosecutors charge five Proud Boys defendants with seditious conspiracy -Federal prosecutors on Monday added seditious conspiracy to the list of charges five Proud Boys leaders are facing over their alleged involvement in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol.A superseding federal grand jury indictment unsealed Monday marks the second time the Justice Department has brought the serious charge following the attack.The five Proud Boys members, including the group’s national leader, Enrique Tarrio, had been charged over the past year with conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding and various other counts.Both types of conspiracy charges are punishable by up to 20 years in prison.Prosecutors earlier this year charged members of the right-wing Oath Keepers militia with seditious conspiracy.“Mr. Tarrio will have his day in court and we will vigorously represent our client through this process,” Nayib Hassan, Tarrio’s lawyer, said in an email. “Mr. Tarrio looks forward to being vindicated of these allegations.”The new charges come as the Justice Department appears to be broadening the scope of its investigation into the attack. Former White House trade adviser Peter Navarro revealed last week that he had been subpoenaed by a federal grand jury for his communications with former President Trump.The latest indictment doesn’t appear to add much new information to the case against the Proud Boys members, who are scheduled to face a jury in August.Seditious conspiracy involves planning to use violence to obstruct or overthrow the government. The Justice Department historically has rarely brought such cases and has had mixed results in recent decades.Prosecutors will now have to prove that the Proud Boys defendants conspired “to oppose the lawful transfer of presidential power by force.”The new charges come two months after a sixth Proud Boys leader named as a defendant in earlier indictments, Charles Donohoe, pleaded guilty to conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding and agreed to cooperate with the investigation and testify in court if necessary.The five members now facing new charges have all pleaded not guilty and denied conspiring to prevent President Biden from taking office. Their lawyers have argued that the group’s efforts prior to Jan. 6 were to ensure that they could protect themselves in case they were attacked by leftist activists who they had clashed with at previous demonstrations around the country.Tarrio was arrested in March and initially charged with conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding and other counts, despite not being physically present at the Capitol on Jan. 6.He had been arrested two days before the attack on Congress on unrelated charges and ordered to stay out of Washington, D.C. But prosecutors allege he played a key role in preparing the group’s followers for an effort to prevent Congress from certifying Biden’s 2020 victory over Trump.
Raskin says Jan. 6 panel has found more on Trump than ‘incitement’ --Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) on Monday said the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol has found evidence on former President Trump that supports “a lot more than incitement.”The comment from Raskin, a member of the Jan. 6 panel, referenced Trump’s second impeachment in January 2021, when the House voted to impeach the then-president for incitement to insurrection.The Jan. 6 panel is set to hold its first public hearing on Thursday, where Raskin said the committee will lay out information regarding individuals who played a role in the attack — including Trump.“The select committee has found evidence about a lot more than incitement here, and we’re gonna be laying out the evidence about all of the actors who were pivotal to what took place on Jan. 6,” Raskin said during an interview with Washington Post Live.Trump was impeached in the House by a 232-197 vote, with 10 Republicans joining all Democrats in sanctioning the president. The following month, however, the Senate acquitted him in a 57-43 vote. Seven Senate Republicans joined the entire Democratic caucus in voting to convict.The select committee says Thursday’s prime-time hearing, scheduled to begin at 8 p.m., will feature new material and witness testimony from the nearly yearlong investigation, which has largely been conducted behind the scenes Raskin on Monday told The Washington Post Live that this week’s hearing will “tell the story of a conspiracy to overturn the 2020 presidential election and block the transfer of power.”Asked if Trump is at the center of that conspiracy, Raskin said “I think that Donald Trump and the White House were at the center of these events.”“That’s the only way really of making sense of them all,” he added.
Justice sends mixed messages on subpoenaing Trump’s inner circle --The Justice Department’s decision not to charge former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows or deputy communications director Dan Scavino with contempt of Congress is sending mixed messages about the extent those in the president’s inner circle can flout lawmaker subpoenas. The Department of Justice sent a letter to the House saying it would not pursue contempt charges against the two men even as it filed charges Friday against Peter Navarro, a former White House economic adviser, for defying a subpoena from the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. It’s a decision that has left many wishing the DOJ would be more transparent in its rationale for charging some in Trump’s inner circle, but not others. “I think it’s a disappointing decision by the Justice Department, and without understanding how they reach that decision, it leaves a lot of really troubling questions unanswered,” said David Janovsky, an analyst for The Constitution Project with the Project on Government Oversight. The announcement from the DOJ ended months of speculation over whether the department would charge the two men, who were among the first subpoenaed by the committee, and leaves no further referrals in its queue. U.S. Attorney Matthew Graves, in a letter to the House counsel, repeatedly notes the DOJ’s need to evaluate the “individualized facts and circumstances” of each case. “Each referral has been analyzed individually based on the facts and circumstances of the alleged contempt developed through my office’s investigation,” he wrote in a letter first reported by The New York Times. The Jan. 6 committee called the decision “puzzling” in a late Friday statement noting Meadows’s executive privilege claims are being litigated and asking the DOJ to provide “greater clarity on this matter.” Meadows and Scavino presented very different cases to DOJ. Meadows turned over reams of documents to the committee, including some 2,319 text messages. Though he balked before his scheduled deposition and filed a suit against the committee, Meadows’s materials have frequently been the basis for the panel’s subpoenas. Scavino, in contrast, “has not produced a single document, nor has he appeared for testimony,” the select committee wrote in its report this spring.
CNN’s Chris Wallace ‘skeptical’ of Jan. 6 hearing - CNN anchor Chris Wallace said during the network’s coverage of the first hearing of the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, that he is “skeptical” of what the committee might produce during the prime-time proceeding. “I’m kind of skeptical about what we’re going to see tonight and over the next couple of weeks,” Wallace said on CNN minutes before the hearing was set to begin. Wallace said the committee had put itself in danger of falling victim to too much “hype” about its findings and “over-selling” what they have to tell the American people about the attack. “You’ve got Jamie Raskin, one of the members of the committee, saying ‘this is going to blow the roof off the House,’ you’ve got Adam Kinzinger saying ‘It’s going to change history,” Wallace said. The former Fox News anchor, who recently left that network for CNN to join its now-shuttered streaming service, said news of the committee hiring a former top executive at ABC News as an adviser on media and messaging may not work in the panel’s favor. “I think that’s a bad look both for the committee and the mainstream media to seem that they are hand in glove with each other,” Wallace said.
Jan. 6 panel uses Trump allies’ own words to indict former president - The Jan. 6 select committee opened its case to the American public with one overarching conclusion about the violence that consumed the Capitol last year: It was carefully planned and orchestrated. A pro-Donald Trump mob’s attack on Congress 17 months ago, threatening the transfer of presidential power, was the culmination of weeks of pre-planning by extremist groups and individuals, the panel communicated at its first major hearing Thursday night. Many of those extremists, as the committee sees it, decided to descend on Washington following a Dec. 19, 2020 tweet by Donald Trump himself. “Big protest in D.C. on January 6th. Be there, will be wild!” Trump said at the time. William Barr says he told Trump stolen election claims were 'bulls---' The select committee played a video highlighting how that particular tweet ignited preparations by people who would later help orchestrate and drive forward the siege on the Capitol. The panel’s first public hearing to unfurl the findings of its year-long investigation into the causes of the attack played out in primetime and will be followed by at least five other hearings over the course of June. As the panel focuses on premeditation, Thursday’s opening bid homed in on the role of the Proud Boys, the pro-Trump, far-right group whose members were highly visible throughout the riot. Select committee chair Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) began the hearing with a sweeping statement: Trump attempted to thwart the peaceful transfer of power and spurred “a mob of domestic enemies of the Constitution” to attack the Capitol. And in a nod to doubters, he augmented his statement with an excerpt of video testimony from former Attorney General Bill Barr, who said he told Trump his claims of election fraud were “bullshit.” “You can’t live in a world where the incumbent administration stays in power based on its view, unsupported by specific evidence, that there was fraud in the election,” Barr said, adding that it contributed to his decision to leave the Trump administration in Dec. 2020.In her own opening statement, committee vice chair Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) confirmed reports that while members of the Jan. 6 mob chanted “Hang Mike Pence,” Trump said to aides, “Maybe our supporters have the right idea. Mike Pence deserves it.’”Relying on video testimony from Barr, as well as Trump campaign advisers Jason Miller and Alex Cannon, Cheney laid out a case that Trump was repeatedly informed by his allies that his claims of fraud were wrong and insufficient to reverse the outcome of the election. But Trump persisted in making the public claims anyway, she noted. Cheney similarly played a brief video clip of Ivanka Trump’s testimony, in which she said she believed Barr when he said there was insufficient evidence of fraud to influence the outcome of the election.Miller noted on Twitter that Trump responded to his advisers’ doubts by suggesting they were underestimating the prospect of winning some of their pending legal challenges.Cheney also pushed back on some GOP lines of attack about Jan. 6, saying though the panel would present information on how the Capitol should have been better prepared, the U.S. Capitol Police should not be blamed.“We will not blame the violence that day, violence provoked by President Trump, on the officers who bravely defended all of us,” she said.The video about Trump’s tweet, narrated by a select committee investigator, showed how social media chatter about stopping the transition of power picked up following the then-president’s “wild” promise — and how extremists in the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers viewed it as a call to action.
Cheney: Trump ‘summoned the mob, assembled the mob and lit the flame of this attack’ - Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) on Thursday laid blame directly on former President Trump for the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot, saying during the House select committee’s hearing that Trump “summoned the mob, assembled the mob and lit the flame of this attack.” “Those who invaded our Capitol and battled law enforcement for hours were motivated by what President Trump had told them: that the election was stolen, and that he was the rightful president,” Cheney, the vice chairwoman of the Jan. 6 panel, said in her opening statement, which ran longer than 30 minutes. “President Trump summoned the mob, assembled the mob and lit the flame of this attack,” she added. The comments came minutes into the panel’s first public hearing as it unveiled findings from its nearly yearlong investigation. The committee has conducted more than 1,000 interviews and obtained upwards of 125,000 documents as part of its probe into the Capitol riot. The hearing is taking place after nearly 11 months of investigating the incident, and just more than 17 months after a mob of pro-Trump supporters stormed the Capitol building. Before the riot began, Trump told a crowd of people at a nearby rally “we’re going to have to fight much harder” shortly before supporters marched to the Capitol. “We’re going to walk down. Anyone you want, but I think right here, we’re going to walk down to the Capitol — and we’re going to cheer on our brave senators and congressmen and women and we’re probably not going to be cheering so much for some of them,” Trump said. “Because you’ll never take back our country with weakness. You have to show strength and you have to be strong,” he added at the rally. Cheney on Thursday said Trump, over a number of months, “oversaw a sophisticated seven-part plan to overturn the presidential election and prevent the transfer of presidential power.” She added that the committee would present “evidence of each element of this plan” throughout the panel’s eight public hearings. In his opening statement , Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), the chairman of the Jan. 6 panel, said Trump “spurred a mob of domestic enemies of the Constitution to march down the Capitol and subvert American democracy.” The chairman also claimed that Trump “was at the center” of a “multistep conspiracy aimed at overturning the Presidential election” and “throwing out the votes of millions of Americans … and replacing the will of the American people with his will to remain in power after his term ended.”
Liz Cheney doesn’t care what the pro-Trump GOP thinks of her -Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) didn’t make any new friends in the GOP with her star turn bashing former President Trump in prime time on Thursday night. It doesn’t bother her a bit. Cheney, a dynastic figure who sits in the House seat once held by her father, former Vice President Dick Cheney, used her high perch on the Jan. 6 select committee to accuse Trump of abusing the powers of the presidency to orchestrate nothing short of an attempted coup — explosive charges that have reinforced her status as Public Enemy No. 1 in the eyes of the MAGA faithful. The much-watched hearing has further complicated Cheney’s path to reelection in deep-red Wyoming, a Trump stronghold where her primary opponent has the energetic backing of the 45th president, who is actively stumping against the mutinous incumbent. But as Cheney’s attacks on Trump have grown only louder, it’s increasingly clear that she’s motivated by something other than securing her future in the lower chamber. Whether that thing is a self-sacrificing desire to save the country’s democratic traditions from the former president or an egomaniacal effort to advance her own fame and political powers largely depends on the perspective of her fans and critics. What is not in question is that Cheney has staked her legacy on her relentless anti-Trump activism — a reputation that will become only more deeply entrenched as the select committee airs its investigative findings in a long series of public hearings that will dominate discussion in Washington through the rest of the month. “President Trump summoned the mob, assembled the mob and lit the flame of this attack,” Cheney, the vice chairwoman of the select committee, said during the panel’s prime-time hearing Thursday night. For the like-minded Trump critics, Cheney is an enormous asset to the investigation, offering the committee not only a good dose of bipartisan legitimacy, but also a seasoned legal mind who knows the ins and outs of the GOP conference and its complicated dealings with the former president. To Trump’s allies on and off of Capitol Hill, however, Cheney is simply a traitor to the party — a “Pelosi Republican” who’s been all but disowned as GOP leaders try to tap Trump’s popularity in their effort to flip control of the House in November’s midterm elections.
Mick Mulvaney: Jan. 6 footage at hearing ‘stunning’ - Former Trump White House chief of staff-turned-CBS contributor Mick Mulvaney called new video shown by the Jan. 6 House select committee at its prime-time hearing Thursday “powerful” and “stunning.” “That video was stunning,” Mulvaney said after the panel shared the video. “And more powerful than anything Bennie or Liz said,” he added, referring to opening statements from the panel’s chairman Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) and its vice chairwoman Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.). During Thursday’s hearing, the committee played new video showing staffers on Capitol Hill rushing for exits as the mob overtook the Capitol building. Mulvaney, a former House Republican from South Carolina who served as then-President Trump’s chief of staff until he was replaced in early 2020, joined CBS as a contributor and political analyst in March. His hiring was reportedly met with some consternation from staffers within the network. Mulvaney served in various roles during the Trump administration, including as Trump’s envoy to Northern Ireland. He resigned from that position a day after the Capitol riot, citing Trump’s handling of the events that day. He later said the incident was “different” than previous controversies he dealt with while running the Trump White House. “I thought it was important for someone who is not establishment, not a ‘never Trumper,’ to say that was wrong,” Mulvaney said during an appearance on “Fox News Sunday” just days after the attack.
Caroline Edwards testifies Jan. 6 chaos was like ‘a war scene’ -- Capitol Police officer Caroline Edwards on Thursday equated the riots on Jan. 6, 2021, to a “war scene,” describing slipping in other people’s blood and being in hand-to-hand combat for hours during testimony to the House select committee investigating the insurrection.“I remember my breath catching in my throat because what I saw was just a war scene. It was something like I’d seen out of the movies,” she added.“I couldn’t believe my eyes. There were officers on the ground. They were bleeding, they were throwing up … I was slipping in people’s blood. I was catching people as they fell. It was carnage, it was chaos,” Edwards testified to the committee.“I’m not combat trained, and that day, it was just hours of hand-to-hand combat, hours of dealing with things that were way beyond any law enforcement officer has ever trained for,” Edwards continued. “I just remember that moment of stepping behind the line and seeing the absolute war zone that the West Front had become.”Edwards was one of two main witnesses who appeared in the hearing room on Thursday night for the first public hearing for the select committee. Her testimony, paired with newly released video footage, depicted the graphic violence and mayhem that engulfed the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, as pro-Trump rioters stormed the complex to try and stop the certification of the 2020 election results.Edwards suffered a concussion while on duty at the Capitol on Jan. 6. She is believed to have been the first Capitol officer who was injured that day.
Kushner dismisses Trump legal counsel threat to quit as ‘whining’ Former Trump White House senior adviser Jared Kushner dismissed threats from then-White House counsel Pat Cipollone and his team to resign ahead of the Jan. 6, 2021, riots as “whining,” according to testimony aired during Thursday night’s committee hearing. Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), a member of the House select committee investigating the Capitol riots, asked Kushner during a recorded deposition whether he was aware of instances where Cipollone threatened to resign leading up to Jan. 6. “I kind of, like I said, my interest at that time was on trying to get as many pardons done,” Kushner testified. “And I know that, you know, him and the team were always saying, ‘Oh we’re going to resign, we’re not going to be here if this happens, if that happens,’ so I kind of took it up to just be whining, to be honest to you.” Cheney argued the threats from Cipollone and his team to step down in light of plans for a Jan. 6 rally outside the White House and claims of a rigged election were a sign of the seriousness of the situation unfolding in the final days of former President Trump’s term. “It requires immediate attention,” Cheney said, adding that instead it was shrugged off by Kushner and others. Kushner was one of several former Trump White House officials whose recorded testimony was played during Thursday night’s hearing, when committee members sought to make the case that the Jan. 6 riots were the direct culmination of words and actions by Trump in the months after the 2020 election. Former Attorney General William Barr testified that he thought Trump’s claims about a rigged election were “bull—-,” and Ivanka Trump, who is married to Kushner and also served as a senior White House adviser, told the committee that she believed Barr was right.
DeVos says she talked 25th Amendment, resigned after Trump crossed ‘line in the sand’ on Jan. 6 - Former Education Secretary Betsy DeVos says that the attack on the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, was the final straw for her in standing by former President Trump, confirming that she was open to using the 25th Amendment to remove him from office. DeVos, who writes in a new book about turning in her resignation letter to Trump the day after the Capitol insurrection, blames the former president’s refusal to accept the results of the 2020 presidential election for blocking her efforts to pass her last piece of school choice agenda legislation through Congress. She was the second Trump Cabinet member to step down on Jan. 7, following Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao. “To me, there was a line in the sand,” DeVos writes in “Hostages No More: The Fight for Education Freedom and the Future of the American Child,” which comes out June 21. “It wasn’t about the election results. It was about the values and image of the United States. It was about public service rising above self. The president had lost sight of that.” DeVos’s book marks the first time she has publicly spoken out about her decision to resign in the waning days of the Trump administration. In a new interview promoting the book with USA Today’s Ingrid Jacques, DeVos said that the events of Trump’s final weeks in office “put roadblocks in the way” of the then-Education secretary accomplishing her final legislative goals. “I went to Washington to do a job on behalf of the American people and particularly for students, and a lot of what happened after the election sort of put roadblocks in the way of doing any major additional work, so I really felt that everything I could accomplish in office had been accomplished based on that reality and that dynamic,” DeVos told Jacques. “And then when I saw what was happening on Jan. 6 and didn’t see the president step in and do what he could have done to turn it back or slow it down or really address the situation, it was just obvious to me that I couldn’t continue,” she said. “I was thinking about the kids I was there to represent, and what they are seeing and what they are taking away from this — it was not defensible in any way.”
Trump says Ivanka was ‘checked out’ following Jan. 6 public hearing --Former President Trump knocked Ivanka Trump, his daughter and former White House adviser, after the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot included part of her testimony at its first public hearing Thursday night. A short clip of Ivanka Trump was shown during the hearing, during which she was asked about former Attorney General William Barr’s assessment that the 2020 presidential election wasn’t stolen. Donald Trump himself has long claimed that the election was “rigged” and tainted by widespread voter fraud. Barr as well as state and federal elections officials have said that there was no substantial evidence of widespread voter fraud. “It affected my perspective,” Ivanka Trump said in the video when asked if Barr’s comments impacted her view of what happened in the election. “I respect Attorney General Barr, so I accepted what he was said.” On Friday, the former president said that his daughter was “checked out” in the days following the 2020 election, adding that she did not “study” the election results as he did. “Ivanka Trump was not involved in looking at, or studying, Election results. She had long since checked out and was, in my opinion, only trying to be respectful to Bill Barr and his position as Attorney General (he sucked!),” Trump said in a post on his Truth Social platform.
FBI arrests GOP candidate for Michigan governor in connection with Jan. 6 -The FBI arrested Michigan GOP gubernatorial candidate Ryan Kelley on Thursday in connection with the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot and searched his Allendale home. Kelley was allegedly seen outside the Capitol on Jan. 6 and faces four misdemeanor charges stemming from the riot. The U.S. Attorney’s Office for D.C. confirmed his arrest and said Kelley is set to appear in court later on Thursday. In supporting documents released by the attorney’s office, the FBI said it had received multiple tips of Kelley’s presence at the Capitol in the days following the riot. The FBI found no evidence that Kelley had entered the Capitol building but alleged he was among the crowd on Capitol grounds for roughly two hours. The Hill has reached out to Kelley’s campaign for comment. The FBI alleged Kelley was part of the crowd that was attacking and pushing past Capitol Police officers as Congress was in the process of certifying the 2020 election results. At times, he allegedly filmed crowds attacking the officers. The agency’s investigators also said Kelley consistently waved his hand to instruct the crowd to move closer to the building, climbing scaffolding set up for President Biden’s inauguration. At one point, Kelley allegedly pulled a covering off a temporary structure, according to the documents. He is charged with knowingly entering a restricted area without lawful authority, disorderly conduct, knowingly engaging in physical violence in a restricted area and willfully injuring or committing depredation against federal government property.
Nikki Haley battles Trump in House primary turf war - As former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley crisscrosses the country ahead of an anticipated 2024 presidential bid, she is also fixated on defending her home turf — from an incursion led by her onetime boss, former President Donald Trump. Haley is putting her political muscle behind South Carolina Rep. Nancy Mace, a freshman congresswoman who blamed Trump for the deadly Jan. 6 Capitol riot — and who is now facing a Trump-endorsed opponent, Katie Arrington, in next week’s Republican primary. Haley, a former South Carolina governor, has appeared in Mace’s TV ads, headlined a fundraiser that raised six figures, and is expected to close out the race by holding several events with the congresswoman. The former governor’s top lieutenants are also pitching in, with a top strategist, Betsy Ankney, in regular contact with the congresswoman’s team. Jon Lerner, Haley’s longtime pollster, recently conducted a survey for a pro-Mace outside group. Haley’s intervention in the primary represents a political bet: By throwing her political might behind Mace — a candidate derided by Trump as “nasty, disloyal, and bad for the Republican Party” — and risking a defeat in her home state, Haley is taking steps to distinguish herself from a former president whom she served and who, like her, is weighing a 2024 bid. Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) leaves a House Republican conference meeting. Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) leaves a House Republican conference meeting on Capitol Hill on April 27, 2022 in Washington, D.C. | Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images Those in Trump’s orbit concede it’s likely Haley will end up with the win, with public polling showing Mace ahead. While Haley is barnstorming the Charleston-area district for her candidate during the final days of the contest in a sign of confidence, Trump has opted against making an 11th-hour trip for Arrington.
Republicans plan legislative assault on 'woke' ESG firms - The Republican crusade against green investing and “woke” corporate policies could soon turn into a concrete legislative agenda. Republicans, if they take back Congress in the midterms, plan to pursue legislation against environmental, social and governance, or ESG, investing, part of an effort to push corporations and the financial sector away from pro-climate rhetoric and make them re-embrace fossil fuels. It’s an issue with an increasingly national profile that could gain traction on the campaign trail. Already, GOP lawmakers are honing the message and putting a target on major investment firms, namely money manager BlackRock Inc. Some have even accused major oil companies and financial institutions of being too “woke.” “That argument’s going in our favor,” Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas) said in an interview, pointing to BlackRock’s announcement last month that it would support fewer climate-related shareholder proposals this year. “That’s a big reversal, and I think it’s also an indication that they’re worried about their competitiveness.” The anti-ESG sentiment on Capitol Hill follows a trend simmering in red states around the country. Texas enacted a law last year to bar state investment and retirement funds from doing business with companies that “boycott” fossil fuels. Texas Comptroller Glenn Hegar sent letters earlier this year to 19 firms probing their stances on fossil fuels and green investment funds. Most said they planned to continue financing fossil fuels (Climatewire, May 31). State officials in Utah penned a letter earlier this year, signed by the state’s congressional delegation, denouncing S&P Global Ratings for a plan to incorporate ESG indicators into state credit ratings. West Virginia, meanwhile, announced in January that it would stop doing business with BlackRock — the world’s largest asset manager — because of the company’s climate commitments. In the likely event that Republicans take over one or both chambers of Congress next year, the state trend could quickly turn federal. “Forever and ever, board members’ primary responsibility was fiduciary responsibility to shareholders,” Rep. John Curtis (R-Utah) said in an interview. “Somehow, without legislation, that has changed, and shareholders I think are being duped, not knowing that those who are representing them aren’t representing their financial interest.”
How crypto giant Binance became a hub for hackers, fraudsters and drug traffickers - For five years, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange Binance served as a conduit for the laundering of at least $2.35 billion in illicit funds, a Reuters investigation has found.In September 2020, a North Korean hacking group known as Lazarus broke into a small Slovakian crypto exchange and stole virtual currency worth some $5.4 million. It was one of a string of cyber heists by Lazarus that Washington said were aimed at funding North Korea’s nuclear weapons programme.Several hours later, the hackers opened at least two dozen anonymous accounts on Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, enabling them to convert the stolen funds and obscure the money trail, correspondence between Slovakia’s national police and Binance reveals.In as little as nine minutes, using only encrypted email addresses as identification, the Lazarus hackers created Binance accounts and traded crypto stolen from Eterbase, the Slovakian exchange, according to account records that Binance shared with the police and that are reported here for the first time.“Binance had no idea who was moving money through their exchange” because of the anonymous nature of the accounts, said Eterbase co-founder Robert Auxt, whose firm has been unable to locate or recover the funds.Eterbase’s lost money is part of a torrent of illicit funds that flowed through Binance from 2017 to 2021, a Reuters investigation has found.During this period, Binance processed transactions totalling at least $2.35 billion stemming from hacks, investment frauds and illegal drug sales, Reuters calculated from an examination of court records, statements by law enforcement and blockchain data, compiled for the news agency by two blockchain analysis firms. Two industry experts reviewed the calculation and agreed with the estimate.Separately, crypto researcher Chainalysis, hired by U.S. government agencies to track illegal flows, concluded in a 2020 report that Binance received criminal funds totalling $770 million in 2019 alone, more than any other crypto exchange. Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao accused Chainalysis on Twitter of “bad business etiquette.”As Reuters reported in January, Binance kept weak money-laundering checks on its users until mid-2021, despite concerns raised by senior company figures starting at least three years earlier. In response to that article, Binance said it was helping drive higher industry standards and the reporting was “wildly outdated.” In August 2021, Binance compelled new and existing users to submit identification.With around 120 million users worldwide, Binance processes crypto trades worth hundreds of billions of dollars a month. The sector was hit by a sharp correction in May, its overall value slumping by a quarter to $1.3 trillion. Zhao said he saw “new found resiliency” in the market.Meanwhile, his company is extending its reach into traditional business, announcing a $200 million investment in media group Forbes this year and committing $500 million to Tesla boss Elon Musk’s bid to take over Twitter. Forbes abandoned its plans to list publicly last week and a Forbes spokesperson said Binance’s investment would not take place. Musk didn’t respond to requests for comment.The flow of illicit crypto through Binance, identified by Reuters, represents a small portion of the exchange’s overall trading volumes. Yet as policymakers and regulators, including U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, voice concern over the illegal use of cryptocurrencies, the trade demonstrates how criminals have turned to the technology to launder dirty money.
Ransomware groups rebrand to dodge sanctions -Ransomware groups that have been sanctioned by the U.S. government are switching their tactics to evade sanctions and continue to receive ransom payments, according toa report released Thursday by cybersecurity firm Mandiant.Hackers affiliated with a group known as Evil Corp, which was sanctioned in 2019, have since then changed the types of programs they use to target their victims. For instance, the hackers seemed to have stopped using a ransomware program known as WastedLocker and instead adopted similar variants in a “relatively quick succession,” the report said. “These developments suggested that the actors faced challenges in receiving ransom payments following their ransomware’s public association with Evil Corp,” according to the report. U.S. federal agencies have warned companies, especially those in critical sectors, to be wary of ransomware, which has become a popular tool for cyber criminals.During an annual conference on cybersecurity held on Wednesday, FBI Director Christopher Wray said that in 2021, cybercriminals used ransomware against 14 of the 16 U.S. critical sectors, including health care.“Ransomware gangs love to go after things we can’t do without,” Wray said.“That’s why we’ve increasingly seen cyber criminals using ransomware against U.S. critical infrastructure sectors,” he added. Although federal agencies have taken various actions to hold ransomware hackers accountable, a new report released last week found that the federal government lacks sufficient data on the use of cryptocurrency in ransom payments.Senate Homeland Security Committee Chairman Gary Peters (D-Mich.), who released the report, said that “the federal government lacks the necessary information to deter and prevent these attacks.” The report also revealed that current government reporting of ransomware attacks and cryptocurrency is “fragmented across multiple federal agencies.”
The Lummis-Gillibrand crypto bill provision that has banks on edge -A bipartisan bill aiming to establish a broad framework for regulating digital assets could make it easier for financial technology companies to access Federal Reserve bank accounts.The Responsible Financial Innovation Act, introduced by Sens. Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyo., and Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., on Tuesday morning, includes a provision stipulating that any depository institution with a state charter is entitled to an account at a Federal Reserve bank, regardless of whether they are federally insured or supervised.This puts the bill in the middle of a contentious dispute between traditional banks and their tech-based competitors.
PayPal mounts crypto offensive after N.Y. grants a full license - PayPal Holdings will let users transfer certain cryptocurrencies to other customers, exchanges and external wallets, a new service that’s part of the company’s effort to boost use of its app. “This is really about access and utility,” Jose Fernandez da Ponte, senior vice president and general manager for PayPal’s blockchain, crypto and digital currencies business, said in an interview. “We are greatly enhancing the utility of moving crypto around.” The company also said the New York State Department of Financial Services granted PayPal a “BitLicense,” which governs businesses working with virtual currencies, according to a statement on the firm’s website Tuesday.
With Biden’s financial regulatory bench complete, CAP lays out ambitious agenda — A liberal think tank influential in the Biden administration has outlined bank mergers, climate change and digital assets as its high-level priorities for banking regulators now that the Biden administration’s regulatory roster is mostly filled out. With the Senate Banking Committee approval of Michael Barr to the Federal Reserve’s banking regulatory chief post, the Biden administration now nearly has acting or confirmed leaders to its top banking regulatory positions. That gives the administration the staffing to finally begin implementing its agenda in financial regulation in earnest. The Center for American Progress said that the FDIC should repeal its Trump-era rules around ILCs. The Center for American Progress released a report Tuesday morning outlining what that agenda should be. The report, by Todd Phillips, director for financial regulation and corporate governance at the think tank, and Jeremy Kress, a financial regulation scholar at the University of Michigan, identified strengthening rules around climate change, fintech and digital assets, among other issues.
There will be blood - FT Alphaville -Jim Reid writes Deutsche Bank’s annual Default Study. The 24th one just landed in FT Alphaville’s inbox, and, as ever, it makes for interesting reading.First of all, it is remarkable just how tranquil a period it has been for corporate debt.Last year saw one of the lowest junk bond default counts in a decade, and despite the recent market jitters, only 31 companies have defaulted globally this year, the lowest run rate since 2014 according to S&P Global. Even the rolling default rate of uber-junky triple-C rated US companies is the lowest it’s been for nearly four decades, according to Deutsche Bank.The reality is that aside from a few notably awful spells in the immediate aftermath of the Covid-19 outbreak and the 2008 financial crisis, it’s been a pretty great two decades for corporate debt, with defaults trending lower and lower.But Reid now sees a regime change lurking.For most of this study’s history we’ve been convinced the ultra-low default world would hold for as far as the eye can see. However, this year we speculate that things might become more difficult for corporates in the years ahead.Our view has long been that inflation would rise this decade for structural reasons. The pandemic and the aftermath has accelerated and exaggerated this. We’ve previously been relaxed about higher inflation vis-à-vis defaults as we’ve thought the authorities would still have to heavily rely on financial repression to ensure the mammoth global debt pile could be smoothly financed in such a world.However, we now think that such a scenario might be more challenging for funding than we’ve believed in years gone by. Although financial repression will likely stay to some degree, policymakers may find it more difficult to pull all the easy policy levers as they’ve done in the last few decades.As such, we think there’ll be a tug of war between real yields and term premium naturally trending higher (bad for defaults) versus a desire (or need) for the authorities to intervene to prevent the debt super cycle from being exposed (good for defaults). The latter support may be slower to materialise, less aggressive, and more targeted than we’ve been used to if we move to a higher inflation world. The “good” news is that Reid doesn’t think creditpocalypse is already upon us, as some have fretted. DB forecasts that the overall US junk bond default rate will climb to 5 per cent by the end of 2023 — the year it expects a recession to start — before peaking at 10.3 per cent in 2024.The default rate for top-tier junk bonds (rated double-Bs) will only peak at 2 per cent, but Deutsche Bank thinks almost half of all triple-C bonds will end up in default. Defaults will then moderate, but more slowly than has been the norm over the past two decades, and remain elevated at around 4-5 per cent by the end of 2025, DB predicts.
Fed to publish stress test results June 23 — The Federal Reserve announced Monday that it will release the results of its supervisory stress tests on June 23.The stress tests are among the most important supervisory innovations to emerge from the 2008 financial crisis. The tests involve banks with more than $100 billion of assets running their balance sheets through a series of hypothetical macroeconomic stress scenarios. Banks that retain their minimum capital levels through each of the scenarios are deemed compliant, while those who do not may face further supervisory scrutiny from the Federal Reserve. The stress tests initially gave many banks compliance headaches, but in more recent years banks have become more accustomed to the process and none have fallen below the minimum capital threshold since 2014. The Fed also initiated significant changes to the stress testing regime with the passage of the 2018 Dodd-Frank reform bill, including raising the threshold for banks subject to stress testing from $50 billion of assets to $100 billion of assets. The stress tests are also performed biannually rather than annually for all banks except those labeled global systemically important banks, or G-SIBs.
Should the Fed decide who gets a master account? - A long-running debate about which institutions can access the Federal Reserve’s services is nearing a tipping point.The question has been swirling around regulatory circles for years. Traditional banks, most of which are federally insured and supervised, have been at odds with fintechs and other newcomers, especially those dealing with legal cannabis or cryptocurrencies that are chartered only at the state level.That question appears to have come to a head through several unrelated developments in a single week. Two senators introduced a bill that could strip the Fed of its discretion over granting master accounts; a financial technology company filed a lawsuit challenging the current master account application review process; and Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa., revealed that the only fintech to obtain a master account appears to have had that access quietly taken away.
BankThink: Bankers should dread the idea of a CBDC | American Banker - When it comes to the creation of a U.S. central bank digital currency, many bankers take comfort in the conventional wisdom that any such move — if it happens at all — will take years to come to fruition. With many technical hurdles to overcome, not to mention the massive challenge in passing legislation to authorize a CBDC, they believe time is on their side. Indeed, a recent IntraFi Network survey found concerns raised by banking trade groups about a possible CBDC had not yet drifted down to most institutions. Only 13% of the more than 400 executives polled rated the creation of a CBDC as a subject of concern. In contrast, more than 40% of them were more worried by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s crackdown on so-called junk fees or its pending rule to collect more data on small-business loans. This complacency is dangerous. While I understand concerns about both these CFPB initiatives, their importance pales in comparison to what the Federal Reserve Board is contemplating now. If bankers are not careful, they may find themselves on the losing end as they watch the Fed create an alternative to federally insured deposits. This would inevitably drain funding from community banks, impacting the availability of credit nationwide, and likely fuel further consolidation in the industry.
Financed emissions are banks’ latest climate-change challenge -Banks are facing loud demands to measure the carbon footprints of their financing activities, but few of them currently have a full accounting of those emissions, according to a new study. At large banks around the globe, so-called financed emissions account for at least 95% of overall emissions, but they remain underreported because of challenges in calculating and disclosing the complex environmental metric, the consulting firm Bain found. Financed emissions have been drawing more attention as banks’ corporate clients request increasingly detailed information about emissions to meet climate commitments. The first two scopes of emissions, which include direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions, have become more common in disclosures, while banks have been slower to report Scope 3 emissions.
Toomey demands answers from Kansas City Fed on fintech’s account - Sen. Pat Toomey, the top Republican on the Banking Committee, is demanding answers from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City about the status of a Fed master account for the Colorado fintech firm Reserve Trust, which had figured in a recent confirmation controversy. “It has been brought to my attention that the Kansas City Fed recently revoked Reserve Trust’s master account after determining, among other things, that the company is no longer eligible for one,” Toomey said in a letter obtained by Bloomberg News to Kansas City Fed President and CEO Esther L. George. Toomey said he had been “stonewalled” when he sought details on why the company received its master account in 2018, when former Fed governor and former deputy Treasury Secretary Sarah Bloom Raskin was on its board, and asked for a briefing and documents regarding the bank’s actions.
Waters asks top U.S. banks for details on profits from American slavery — House Financial Services Chair Maxine Waters sent a series of letters Tuesday to some of the nation’s largest banks and insurance companies asking whether they had studied their institution’s historic involvement in American chattel slavery. Waters announced in a press release Tuesday afternoon that top Democrats on her committee, including Texas Rep. Al Green, who leads the subcommittee on oversight and investigations, sent the letters to a total of 20 financial institutions asking for details on whether they had profited from the practice of U.S. slavery before it was outlawed in the 19th century. The banks included in Waters’ request include Bank of America, Capital One Financial, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, PNC Financial Services Group, Bank of New York Mellon, Truist Financial Corporation, U.S. Bancorp and Wells Fargo.
Brown asks FSOC to examine ‘systemic’ risks of consumer data use - — The Democratic chair of the Senate Banking Committee called on the Financial Stability Oversight Council to review the “systemic” risks of how financial institutions use consumer data, according to a letter published Tuesday. The letter sent by Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen — who heads the FSOC, a committee of U.S. financial agencies — asked the Biden administration’s regulators to examine “whether and to what extent the collection and sale of consumer data by financial institutions pose a systemic threat to U.S. financial stability and security.” “The breadth of personal consumer data that financial institutions have access to and can legally sell or otherwise disclose to commercial entities and to data brokers creates a concerning entry point for bad actors to obtain and use that information for their own purposes,” Brown said in the letter, adding that he remained concerned that sale of personal financial data could damage “Americans’ security and civil rights.”
FHFA, CFPB urge financial firms to offer disclosures in Spanish - Two regulatory agencies are urging lenders to provide disclosures to consumers in the language of their choice, a move that could presage future requirements that lenders make more accommodations for borrowers not proficient in English. The Federal Housing Finance Agency and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau have taken steps in recent weeks for lenders and financial institutions to provide outreach to non-English speakers, particularly Spanish speakers. Federal Housing Finance Agency director Sandra Thompson said the agency's move to have lenders survey their borrowers' English proficiency is meant to "more fully respond to the nation's growing diversity." The FHFA said May 3 that mortgage lenders that sell loans to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will be required to collect and report language preferences next year.
Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: "Housing costs to current income levels within a whisper of all time high in 2006" --Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: "Housing costs to current income levels within a whisper of all time high in 2006" A brief excerpt: Note: Black Knights data on affordability goes back to 1996. This doesn’t include housing in the 1980 period when 30-year mortgage rates peaked at over 18%.And on the payment to income ratio:
>• May marked the least affordable housing since July 2006, and ranked among the three least affordable months on record
• The monthly payment required to purchase the average price home with 20% down jumped another $100 through mid-May, and is now up nearly $600 (+44%) from the start of the year and $865 (+79%) from the start of the pandemic
• When comparing the rise in housing costs to current income levels, it now takes 33.7% of the median household income to purchase the average priced home, within a whisper of the 34.1% all time high at its peak in June 2006During the housing bubble, there were “affordability products” with low teaser rates available.Excluding the bubble years, this is the worst affordability since at least the early ‘90s, maybe ‘80s. There is much more in the article.
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey - From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 6.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 3, 2022. This week’s results include an adjustment for the Memorial Day holiday.... The Refinance Index decreased 6 percent from the previous week and was 75 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 18 percent compared with the previous week and was 21 percent lower than the same week one year ago.“Weakness in both purchase and refinance applications pushed the market index down to itslowest level in 22 years. The 30-year fixed rate increased to 5.4 percent after three consecutive declines. While rates were still lower than they were four weeks ago, they remained high enough to still suppress refinance activity. Only government refinances saw a slight increase last week,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “The purchase market has suffered from persistently low housing inventory and the jump in mortgage rates over the past two months. These worsening affordability challenges have been particularly hard on prospective first-time buyers.”...The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) increased to 5.40 percent from 5.33 percent, with points increasing to 0.60 from 0.51 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index has declined sharply over the last several months.The refinance index is at the lowest level since the year 2000.The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase indexAccording to the MBA, purchase activity is down 21% year-over-year unadjusted.
Mortgage Applications Crash To 22-Year-Low As Monthly Payments Rocket Higher - Another week, another collapse in the pace of mortgage applications as the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reports a 6.5% week-over-week drop in mortgage applications - the fourth straight weekly drop - to its lowest since 2000. Purchases fell more than refis, tumbling 6.1% WoW (refis fell 5.6% WoW)... Outside of the COVID lockdown collapse in mortgage applications - where offices were forced to close by the government - this is the weakest level for purchase applications since Nov 2016... Graphs Source: Bloomberg This should be no surprise since, as Political Calculations details, after reaching a new low for affordability in March 2022, the median new home in the U.S. became even less affordable for the typical American household in April 2022.That's especially clear in the following chart. It shows the basic mortgage payment for a median new home as a percentage of median household income rocketed up from 33.8% of that income March to 37.8% in April 2022. Our next chart confirms the raw affordability of new homes has achieved a new record low.April 2022's median household income was just 17.4% of the value of the median new home sold during the month. By this raw measure, new homes have never been less affordable for the period where we have data available.“Weakness in both purchase and refinance applications pushed the market index down to its lowest level in 22 years. The 30-year fixed rate increased to 5.4 percent after three consecutive declines. While rates were still lower than they were four weeks ago, they remained high enough to still suppress refinance activity. Only government refinances saw a slight increase last week,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting.“The purchase market has suffered from persistently low housing inventory and the jump in mortgage rates over the past two months. These worsening affordability challenges have been particularly hard on prospective first-time buyers.”How much more pain will Powell inflict (or be allowed to inflict by The White House), before he folds?
Housing Bubble Getting Ready to Pop: Mortgage Applications to Purchase a Home Drop to Lockdown Lows, “Bad Time to Buy” Hits Record amid Sky-High Prices, Spiking Mortgage Rates By Wolf Richter This just keeps getting worse: Applications for mortgages to purchase a home dropped 7% for the week, and were down 21% from a year ago, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported today. An indicator of future home sales: Potential homebuyers try to get pre-approved for a mortgage, lock in a mortgage rate, and then start house-hunting.Mortgage rates have soared this year, and home prices have soared for years to ridiculous levels, causing layers and layers of potential buyers to abandon the market, amid “worsening affordability challenges,” as the MBA called it. And these applications to purchase a home hit the lowest point since the depth of the lockdown in April 2020 (data via Investing.com): The MBA’s Purchase Mortgage Applications Index has now dropped below the lows of late 2018. By November 2018, the Fed had been hiking rates for years (slowly), and its QT was in full swing, and mortgage rates had edged above 5%, which was enough to begin shaking up the housing market. Home sales volume slowed, prices began to come down in some markets, and stocks were selling off. But with inflation below the Fed’s target, and with Trump, who’d taken ownership of the Dow, constantly throwing darts at Powell, the Fed signaled in December 2018 that it would cave, and instantly mortgage rates began to fall, and volume and prices took off again.Today, raging inflation is the #1 economic issue, and the Fed is chasing after it, with backing from the White House, and so this issue in the housing market is just going to have to play out.The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate with conforming balances and 20% down rose to 5.40% this week, according to the MBA today, having been in this 5.4% range, plus or minus a little, since the end of April, the highest since 2009.I call them holy-moly mortgage rates because that’s the reaction you get when you apply this rate to figure a mortgage payment for a home at current prices and then accidentally look at the resulting mortgage payment (data via Investing.com):Turns out, sky-high home prices to be financed with holy-moly mortgage rates, plus uncertainty about the economy, dropping stock prices, and inflation eating everyone’s lunch make a toxic mix for homebuyers.The percentage of people who said that now is a “bad time to buy” a home jumped to 79%, another record-worst in the data going back to 2010, according to Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey for May. Sentiment has been deteriorating since February 2021: “Consumers’ expectations that their personal financial situations will worsen over the next year reached an all-time high in the May survey, and they expressed greater concern about job security,” according to Fannie Mae’s report.“These results suggest to us that increased mortgage rates, high home prices, and inflation will likely continue to squeeze would-be homebuyers – as well as those potential sellers with lower, locked-in mortgage rates – out of the market, supporting our forecast that home sales will slow meaningfully through the rest of this year and into next,” said Fannie Mae. Applications for mortgages to refinance an existing mortgage dropped another 6% for the week, and have collapsed by 75% from a year ago, to the lowest level since the year 2000, according to the MBA’s Refinance Mortgage Applications Index. The MBA obtains this data from a weekly survey of mortgage bankers.With these holy-moly mortgage rates, just about the only reason to refinance is to extract cash from the home via a cash-out refi (data via Investing.com):
FDIC study finds minorities pay thousands more to refinance - A study by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. has found that Black and Hispanic home loan applicants are denied conventional loans at higher rates than white applicants, with some minority borrowers paying up to $2,000 more to refinance their mortgage. The FDIC study is among the first to examine data required by the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act that was expanded after 2018 to include credit factors such as a borrower’s credit score, debt-to-income ratio or loan-to-value ratio. Many studies have sought to account for differences in lending outcomes by race. But the new FDIC study by Stephen Popick, an FDIC senior financial economist, analyzed expanded pricing data from the HMDA to find discrepancies among different racial groups.
Mortgage rates move higher ahead of Federal Reserve meeting - After wandering lower the past four weeks, mortgage rates sharply reversed course this week.According to the latest data released Thursday by Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate average increased for the first time in a month, climbing to 5.23 percent with an average 0.9 point. (A point is a fee paid to a lender equal to 1 percent of the loan amount. It is in addition to the interest rate.) It was 5.09 percent a week ago and 2.96 percent a year ago.Freddie Mac, the federally chartered mortgage investor, aggregates rates from about 80 lenders across the country to come up with weekly national averages. The survey is based on home purchase mortgages. Rates for refinances may be different. It uses rates for high-quality borrowers with strong credit scores and large down payments. Because of the criteria, these rates are not available to every borrower.The 15-year fixed-rate average rose to 4.38 percent with an average 0.8 point. It was 4.32 percent a week ago and 2.23 percent a year ago. The five-year adjustable-rate average jumped to 4.12 percent with an average 0.3 point. It was 4.04 percent a week ago and 2.55 percent a year ago.Mortgage rates mirrored “the rebound in the 10-year Treasury, which crested [at] 3 percent mid-week,” George Ratiu, senior economist and manager of economic research at Realtor.com, wrote in an email. “Investors have their eyes on the Consumer Price Index, expecting to see continued gains but at a moderating pace. The data will be an important measure for the Federal Reserve at its meeting next week. While it is not the central bank’s preferred measure of inflation, it is another metric detailing the health of the economy.” When the Federal Reserve meets next week, investors are anticipating another increase in the federal funds rate. At its May meeting, the Fed raised its benchmark rate by a half-percentage point, its sharpest rate hike in 22 years. Another half-percentage point increase is on the table this month. The central bank took its first steps toward bringing down inflation in March when it boosted its benchmark rate for the first time since 2018. Although the Fed does not set mortgage rates, its actions influence them.
30-Year Mortgage Rates increase to 5.85% --Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 30-Year Mortgage Rates increase to 5.85%A brief excerpt: Mortgagenewsdaily.com reports that as of today, average 30-year fixed mortgage rates are at 5.85% for top tier scenarios. Rates increased today as a result of the inflation report released this morning. Here is a graph from Mortgagenewsdaily.com that shows the 30-year mortgage rate over the last 5 years. It is the sharp increase in monthly payments - due to sharply higher mortgage rates - that is impacting the housing market. Yesterday, Sam Ro tweeted some analysis from Goldman Sachs on the median monthly payment. This analysis was before the sharp jump in rates today. "The median monthly payment of a 30-year mortgage is up 56% year-over-year"There is much more in the free article.
Housing Inventory June 6th Update: Inventory UP 13.9% Year-over-year -Altos reports inventory is up 13.9% year-over-year.Inventory usually declines in the winter, and then increases in the spring. Inventory bottomed seasonally at the beginning of March 2022 and is now up 56% since then. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of June 3rd, inventory was at 375 thousand (7-day average), compared to 364 thousand the prior week.Inventory was up 3.1% from the previous week.
Inventory is still very low. Compared to the same week in 2021, inventory is up 13.9% from 329 thousand, however compared to the same week in 2020 inventory is down 46.8% from 706 thousand. Compared to 3 years ago, inventory is down 60.0% from 938 thousand.Here are the inventory milestones I’m watching for with the Altos data:
1. The seasonal bottom (happened on March 4th for Altos) ✅
2. Inventory up year-over-year (happened on May 13th for Altos) ✅
3. Inventory up compared to two years ago (currently down 46.8% according to Altos)
4. Inventory up compared to 2019 (currently down 60.0%).
Here is a graph of the inventory change vs 2021, 2020 (milestone 3 above) and 2019 (milestone 4).The blue line is the year-over-year data, the red line is compared to two years ago, and dashed purple is compared to 2019.Two years ago (in 2020) inventory was declining all year, so the two-year comparison will get easier all year. My current guess is inventory will be up in Q4 compared to the same week in 2020.Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.
Realtor.com Reports Weekly Inventory Up 13% Year-over-year -- Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released yesterday from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending June 4, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory. Active inventory continued to grow, rising 13% above one year ago. The turnaround in the number of homes for sale continues and year over year growth signals that this is more than just a seasonal improvement. Inventory was roughly on par with last year’s levels at the beginning of May and is now up 13% at the beginning of June. Nevertheless, our May Housing Trends Report showed that the active listings count remained nearly 50 percent below its level at the beginning of the pandemic. In other words, we’re starting to add more options, but home shoppers continue to see a relatively low number of homes for sale.Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. Note: I corrected a sign error in the data for Feb 26, 2022. Note the rapid increase in the YoY change, from down 30% at the beginning of the year, to up 13% YoY now. It will be important to watch if that trend continues.
Homebuilder Comments in May: “Builder metrics quickly deteriorating" -Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Homebuilder Comments in May: “Builder metrics quickly deteriorating"A brief excerpt: Read these comments. These are clear signs of a market shift. Some homebuilder comments courtesy of Rick Palacios Jr., Director of Research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting (a must follow for housing on twitter!):#Austin builder: “Some parts of town where finished homes are now taking a month to sell versus hours. Market is definitely correcting. Incentives are back and seeing some builders cutting prices on inventory.”
#Birmingham builder: “Steep decline in sales over past 2 weeks.”
#Greenville builder: “Lowest traffic in many months.”
#LosAngeles builder: “Seeing more cancellations due to payment shock for those in backlog that didn't lock rates.”
#Portland builder: “Incentives are back in the market.”
There is much more in the article.
Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate "Shows Gains in May" - From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Shows Gains in May - The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) jumped 7% in May to 176.2 (2000=100), up from the revised April reading of 165.2. The Momentum Index, issued by Dodge Construction Network, is a monthly measure of the initial report for nonresidential building projects in planning shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. In May, the institutional component of the Momentum Index rose 9%, and the commercial component increased 6%.May’s increase in the Dodge Momentum Index pushed the level of planning above the most recent cyclical high in November 2021. During the month of May, commercial planning was led higher by an increase in office and hotel projects. Institutional planning was boosted by an increase in education and healthcare projects entering planning. On a year-over-year basis, the Momentum Index was 17% higher than in May 2021. The commercial component was 24% higher, and the institutional component was 8% higher than one year ago. This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 176.2 in May, up from 165.2 in April.According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year". This index suggested a decline in Commercial Real Estate construction through most of 2021, but a solid pickup this year and into 2023.
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 12.1% Compared to Same Week in 2019 --Note: This was lowered by the timing of the holiday.From CoStar: STR: Weekly US Hotel Performance Drops i n Line With Expected Post-Holiday Slowdown Reflecting an expected post-Memorial Day holiday slowdown, U.S. hotel performance fell from the previous week, according to STR‘s latest data through June 4. May 29 through June 4, 2022 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):
• Occupancy: 63.2% (-12.1%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): $147.35 (+11.3%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $93.16 (-2.2%)
*Due to the pandemic impact, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019. The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels). The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is above the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue).
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Down 14% from Last Month - The June Preliminary Report came in at 50.2, down 8.2 (14%) from the May Final. Investing.com had forecast 58. Since its beginning in 1978, consumer sentiment is 41.4 percent below the average reading (arithmetic mean) and 40.7 percent below the geometric mean.Surveys of Consumers chief economist, Richard Curtin, makes the following comments: Consumer sentiment declined by 14% from May, continuing a downward trend over the last year and reaching its lowest recorded value, comparable to the trough reached in the middle of the 1980 recession. All components of the sentiment index fell this month, with the steepest decline in the year-ahead outlook in business conditions, down 24% from May. Consumers' assessments of their personal financial situation worsened about 20%. Forty-six percent of consumers attributed their negative views to inflation, up from 38% in May; this share has only been exceeded once since 1981, during the Great Recession. Overall, gas prices weighed heavily on consumers, which was no surprise given the 65 cent increase in national gas prices from last month (AAA). Half of all consumers spontaneously mentioned gas during their interviews, compared with 30% in May and only 13% a year ago. Consumers expect gas prices to continue to rise a median of 25 cents over the next year, more than double the May reading and the second highest since 2015. In addition, a majority of consumers spontaneously mentioned supply shortages for the ninth consecutive month. [More...]See the chart below for a long-term perspective on this widely watched indicator. Recessions and real GDP are included to help us evaluate the correlation between the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the broader economy.
Consumer sentiment hits record low in June as inflation weighs on consumers -- Consumer sentiment sank to its worst level on record in early June as the rising cost of food, gas, and other essentials weighed on American consumers.The University of Michigan's closely watched Surveys of Consumers consumer sentiment index slumped to 50.2 in the preliminary June survey, marking the lowest level recorded by the survey, which dates back to t he mid-'70s.Friday's reading marked a drop from May's already-depressed level of 58.4, and missed estimates for a print of 58.1, according to Bloomberg data. Throughout 2019, the last year before the COVID-19 pandemic sent the economy into recession, the sentiment index had averaged around 96.0."Consumer sentiment declined by 14% from May, continuing a downward trend over the last year and reaching its lowest recorded value, comparable to the trough reached in the middle of the 1980 recession," Joanne Hsu, director of the University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers, said in a statement.Consumers' assessments of their own personal financial situations deteriorated sharply and contributed heavily to the overall drop in the index, Hsu noted. Nearly half (46%) of consumers attributed these worsening views to inflation, up from 38% who did so in May."This share has only been exceeded once since 1981, during the Great Recession," Hsu saidThe University of Michigan's report came shortly after the release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' latest monthly print on consumer price increases.The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed prices soared by 8.6% in May over last year, representing the quickest annual jump since late 1981. Energy, food and, shelter were the biggest contributors to the broad-based gains in the index, with energy prices up 34.6% over last year and gas prices alone up nearly 49%.Friday's sentiment report suggested consumers were taken particular note of the gas price gains."Half of all consumers spontaneously mentioned gas during their interviews, compared with 30% in May and only 13% a year ago," Hsu said. "Consumers expect gas prices to continue to rise a median of 25 cents over the next year, more than double the May reading and the second highest since 2015."
What’s Really Going on with Revolving Consumer Credit? - Wolf Richter - Revolving credit balances in April, not seasonally adjusted – so the actual dollar balances – were $1.04 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve this afternoon. This includes credit card balances, personal loans, etc., and was up by only 2.6% from April 2019. Let that sink in for a moment: Over a three-year period, revolving credit has grown by only 2.6%, despite 13% CPI inflation over those three years. In other words, the growth in revolving credit has fallen sharply in inflation adjusted terms. The huge trough between 2019 and today stems from the pandemic when consumers used their stimulus money to pay down credit cards, and when they cut spending on discretionary services, such as sports and entertainment events, international travel, or elective healthcare services such as cosmetic surgery, dentist visits, etc. Over this period, delinquencies dropped to record lows. Revolving credit balances are barely above the peaks of 2007 and 2008, despite 14 years of population growth and 40% CPI inflation over those years! In other words, revolving credit just isn’t the kind of issue it was in 2008. It’s a sideshow. In terms of growth – in terms of additional borrowed money spent in the economy – it was minuscule. There was in fact no growth since December. And after the pay-downs in January and February, following the annual holiday shopping binge, the total balances only grew by $14 billion in March and by $17 billion April, for a combined $31 billion. This growth of $31 billion in March and April didn’t even make up for the $32 billion in pay-downs in January and February. These are actual dollars, not seasonally adjusted theoretical dollars. In terms of adding to the growth of the economy: Total consumer spending is currently running at an annual rate of $17 trillion, with a T. So how much growth would the additional spending from the increase in revolving credit add? That was a rhetorical question. It’s minuscule. Since 2019, consumer spending has increased 19%, and revolving credit has increased only 2.9%, both not adjusted for 13% inflation over the period. In other words, growth in revolving credit fell sharply behind inflation and fell massively behind growth in consumer spending. This shows that consumers are relying less on revolving credit. Credit cards and some types of personal loans, such as payday loans, are the most expensive form of credit, and they often come with usurious interest rates. Credit card rates can exceed 30%. And Americans have figured this out. If they need to fund purchases, many consumers use cheaper loans, including cash-out refinancing of their mortgages. And many, many consumers are using their credit cards just as payment methods, and they pay them off every month. That’s what these relatively low balances show.
Consumer Price Index: May Headline at 8.58% The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the May Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 8.58%, up from 8.26% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 6.02%, down from 6.16% the previous month.Here is the introduction from the BLS summary, which leads with the seasonally adjusted monthly data:The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 1.0 percent in May on a sea sonally adjusted basis after rising 0.3 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 8.6 percent before seasonal adjustment.The increase was broad-based, with the indexes for shelter, gasoline, and food being the largest contributors. After declining in April, the energy index rose 3.9 percent over the month with the gasoline index rising 4.1 percent and the other major component indexes also increasing. The food index rose 1.2 percent in May as the food at home index increased 1.4 percent.The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.6 percent in May, the same increase as in April. While almost all major components increased over the month, the largest contributors were the indexes for shelter, airline fares, used cars and trucks, and new vehicles. The indexes for medical care, household furnishings and operations, recreation, and apparel also increased in May.The all items index increased 8.6 percent for the 12 months ending May, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending December 1981. The all items less food and energy index rose 6.0 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index rose 34.6 percent over the last year, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending September 2005. The food index increased 10.1 percent for the 12-months ending May, the first increase of 10 percent or more since the period ending March 1981.Read moreInvesting.com was looking for a 0.7% MoM change in seasonally adjusted Headline CPI and a 0.5% in Core CPI. Year-over-year forecasts were 8.13% for Headline and 5.9% for Core.The first chart is an overlay of Headline CPI and Core CPI (the latter excludes Food and Energy) since the turn of the century. The highlighted two percent level is the Federal Reserve's Core inflation target for the CPI's cousin index, the BEA's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.
Inflation rises significantly in May, up to 8.6% year over year - Inflation reaccelerated in May, rising at the highest level seen in four decades, dashing hopes that the number had hit its peak, according to data released by the federal government Friday. The consumer price index, or CPI, stood at 8.6% year over year in May, a significant increase from 8.3% the month prior, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. That is the largest 12-month increase since the period ending December 1981. On a monthly basis, the consumer price index rose 1% in May, far outpacing the 0.3% rise seen in April, according to the bureau. Energy, food and housing costs contributed to the surge in prices. The new data arrives a day after the nationwide average price for a gallon of gas reached $5, according to GasBuddy. The core consumer price index, which strips out food and energy costs, rose 0.6% on a monthly basis in May, the same increase that it saw in April, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. "The increases were nearly ubiquitous," Greg McBride, the chief financial analyst at personal finance advisory firm Bankrate, said in a statement. "Just no place to hide." "Inflation continues to rear its ugly head and hopes for improvement have been dashed again," McBride added. Energy prices climbed dramatically last month, up 3.9% on a monthly basis after falling 2.7% the month prior. Gasoline prices in particular rose even higher than the overall energy index, increasing 4.1% last month. Food prices also spiked in May, increasing 1.2% last month. Notably, the index for dairy and related products rose 2.9%, the highest monthly increase for those products since July 2007. "Given the impact of [Vladimir] Putin’s price hike at the pump, on gas prices in May, we expect the headline inflation number to be elevated," White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters Wednesday in anticipation of Friday's report. "And we expect the war in Ukraine to have some effect on core inflation too, particularly when you get things like air fares and the effect of higher jet fuel costs. But despite these disruptions and the fact that the numbers can be volatile from month to month ... we continue to believe that the economy can transition ... to stable, steady growth and inflationary pressures moderating, which is what experts have been saying for some time now."'
US inflation quickens to 8.6pc, 4-decade high - US consumer prices in May rose at an 8.6pc annual rate, a four-decade high that exceeded most analysts' forecasts, adding pressure on the Federal Reserve to accelerate its pace of interest rate hikes. The consumer price index (CPI) in May rose by the most since December 1981, accelerating from an 8.3pc annual pace in April, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Excluding energy and food, the so-called core inflation index rose by 6pc in May, slowing from 6.2pc in the 12 months through April. The larger-than-expected gain in headline inflation may pressure the Fed to raise its benchmark lending rate at a faster pace in an effort to curtail borrowing and cool inflation. It has signaled a second half-point rate hike is likely at its policy meeting next week, and today's numbers suggest more such increases may be on the way. The World Bank this week warned the war in Ukraine risked leading to 1970s-style "stagflation," or weak growth and sustained inflation. Month over month, the headline CPI in May gained 1pc, accelerating from 0.3pc in April, the BLS said. Core inflation rose on the month by 0.6pc in May, matching April. The CPI increase was broad-based, with shelter, gasoline and food leading price grains in May. The energy index rose by 34.6pc over the last year, the largest annual gain since the period ended September 2005. The food index rose at a 10.1pc annual rate, the first increase of 10pc or more since March 1981. Energy commodities rose by 50.3pc over the 12 months, while gasoline rose by 48.7pc and fuel oil rose by 106.7pc. Utility natural gas rose by 30.2pc and electricity rose at a 12pc annual pace. Airline fares rose by 37.8pc in the year through May. Prices of used vehicles rose by 16.1pc while prices of new vehicles rose at a 12.6pc annual rate. Compared with the prior month, energy commodities rose by 4.5pc in May after falling by 5.4pc in April. Gasoline rose by 4.1pc after falling by 6.1pc in the prior month. Food rose by 1.2pc after a 0.9pc gain in the prior month.
False Hopes of Peak CPI Inflation: Prices of Services, Housing, Food, Fuel Spike. Dollar’s Purchasing Power Goes WHOOSH. by Wolf Richter - The costs of services continued to spike in May, which has been the thing to watch for months because it’s where consumers spend most of their money, and it’s unrelated to “transitory” spikes in commodities. This is where inflation is getting entrenched and will be hard and painful to dislodge, and it’s now front and center. Costs of gasoline and natural gas blew out; the cost of food spiked by over 10%, while inflation in used vehicles resumed their spike, after three months of declines, and new vehicle prices continued to surge.I said a few days ago, while observing the reinvigorated spike in gasoline and diesel prices, “Inflation not in the mood of peaking yet,” and that’s what we’re seeing, but for reasons beyond gasoline. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, spiked on a month-to-month basis by 1.0% in May, the worst red-hot month-to-month spike in this entire red-hot inflation cycle, with no sign of peaking. Year-over-year, CPI spiked by 8.6%, the worst since 1981. And the Fed is going to have a field day with its rate hikes: CPI-W, which tracks inflation for “all urban wage earners & clerical workers,” and whose third-quarter average is used to adjust the COLAs for Social Security in the following year, spiked by 9.3% in May. In the basket of goods and services that is used for CPI, there are always some items that decline or remain stable, and other items that move higher, and they all have different weights in the CPI, with housing costs accounting for about one-third of CPI, and some items may go down one month, but others may surge, and the whole thing gets compared to levels a year ago, which throws the “base effect” into the mix, and so the year-over-year CPI rates are never a straight line, but move up and down and offer many instances of false hopes. But in this inflation cycle, we had a nearly straight line higher, interrupted only by two events of false hopes: this April and the summer of 2021. For people who spend all their money on necessities – such as rent, food, gasoline, utilities, and health insurance – inflation is a lot worse than CPI, because this basket of goods and services tracks more closely the spending by the big spenders. Purchasing Power of the dollar goes WHOOSH. The CPI tracks the loss of the purchasing power of the consumer’s dollar, and thereby the purchasing power of labor. In May, the purchasing power of $100 in January 2000 dropped to $57.80, and this is why this raging inflation has put Americans in a very sour mood: CPI inflation in services spikes. The CPI for services spiked by 0.8% from the prior month (close to 10% annual rate!), and by 5.7% from a year ago, the worst since 1990. And this is just relentless — and it is why the Fed is going to have a field day with its rate hikes:
Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.6% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.8% in May -The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning: According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% in May. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.8% in May. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report". Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details here: "Fuel oil and other fuels" increased at 339% annualized rate in May!Note that Owners' Equivalent Rent and Rent of Primary Residence account for almost 1/3 of median CPI, and these measures were up around 7% annualized in May.This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 5.5%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 6.5%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 6.0%. Core PCE is for April and increased 4.9% year-over-year.
Airfare, Gas—And Even Cookies? Here Are The Biggest Price Hikes From Inflation - Consumer prices rose 8.6% in the 12-month period ended May, higher than estimates and up 1% from April. Fuel oil (106.7%), gasoline (48.7%) and airline fares (37.8%) and used cars and trucks (16.1%) saw the biggest increases in the 12-month period. Energy prices rose 6.1% from April to May, including a 16.9% increase in fuel oil and a 7.8% increase in gas. Although food prices rose only 1.1% from April to May, many products rose sharply: eggs rose 5%, raw non-chicken poultry rose 4.4% and cookies rose 4%. Dairy prices jumped 2.6% between April and May, the highest of any food category. Airline fares rose 16.1% last month, while public transportation generally rose 11.2%.
These products have had some of the biggest price increases in the last year - Inflation is on the rise, putting a pinch on consumers, unnerving Wall Street and creating heavy political headwinds for President Biden and Democrats in this fall’s midterm elections. Prices spiked again in May as another surge in oil prices helped force the consumer price index (CPI) up 1 percent for the month and 8.6 percent over the 12-month stretch ending in May, according to the Labor Department. The biggest price increases in the past year came from the energy sector, in particular the price of fuel oil used for cars. Fuel oil went up by 106.7 percent, the highest annual increase in prices for the category since the CPI began tracking prices. The whole category of “fuel oil and other fuels” went up 75.9 percent, also breaking CPI’s previous record. The spike in fuel prices has been particularly noticeable after Russia invaded Ukraine, with Congress voting to cut off Russian oil imports shortly after the attack. Overall, energy commodities in the U.S. in the last year went up 50.3 percent, the largest increase since November 2021, when the price of energy commodities was up 57.5 percent. The price for eggs, butter and margarine have really jumped in the past year. Eggs had an increase of 32.2 percent, the largest increase in the food category and the biggest increase for the product in the CPI’s records since September 2015. Butter and margarine together had a 20.2 percent increase, the largest since July 2004. Margarine on its own had a 25 percent increase, the largest since January 2009. Although these were the only categories with increases larger than 20 percent, many food items saw an increase of more than 10 or 15 percent in the past year. Chicken, milk, coffee and other common grocery items saw an increase of at least 10 percent. Chicken, other uncooked poultry including turkey, fresh fish and seafood, and multiple other foods saw their largest increases ever in the CPI’s history. Overall, the average increase of all food items was up by 10.1 percent, the largest increase in the CPI since March 1981. The costs of travel also lightened wallets as public transportation, airline fares and other travel-related expenses saw significant increases. Airlines fares had one of the biggest jumps in the index, outside the energy category, at 37.8 percent. It is the largest jump for airline fares since November 1980. Public transportation came in at 26.3 percent, the largest jump since July 1981. Finding a place to stay may also put a strain on your pocket. Hotels and motels went up 22.2 percent, though this was actually the smallest increase in this category since September 2021. Overall, apparel had a smaller increase of 5 percent, but men’s suits were an exception. Men’s suits, sport coats and outerwear had a 22.3 percent increase, the largest increase on record. Only two other items in the apparel category went up by more than 10 percent in the past year. Men’s shirts and sweaters were up by 11.2 percent, while infants’ and toddlers’ apparel had a 10.2 percent increase. All other clothing categories had less than 10 percent increases, with men’s shorts and pants seeing a 1.6 percent decrease in costs.
Average gasoline price jumps 25 cents in one week -The average price of gasoline in the U.S. has risen 25 cents in just one week, adding to headaches faced by consumers and the Biden administration. On Monday, the average national price stood at around $4.87 per gallon, up from $4.62 just one week ago, according to AAA. Over the past month, prices have risen 59 cents, up from an average of $4.28 a month ago. AAA attributed the new rise to high demand. It said that globally, demand is outpacing supply, while recent “robust” travel on Memorial Day weekend also drove up demand in the U.S. The Midwest saw the largest increases over the past week, with prices rising 45 cents in Michigan, 41 cents in Illinois and 41 cents in Indiana, AAA found. Meanwhile, prices themselves were the highest in California, averaging $6.34 per gallon. In general, prices have been pushed upwards by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Lately, the country’s reduced refining capacity has also come into focus, as refiners, which turn crude oil into gasoline, shift towards other profitable fuels like diesel and jet fuel, which have also jumped in price.
Gasoline Spikes to Nearly $5 US Average, Diesel to $5.70. Crude Oil WTI Jumps to $119. Inflation Not in the Mood of Peaking Yet - The average price of all grades of gasoline spiked by another 25 cents per gallon on Monday, June 6, from Monday last week, and by 39 cents from Monday two weeks ago, to a record $4.98 per gallon, according to the US Energy Department’s EIA late Monday, based on its surveys of gas stations conducted during the day. This was the seventh week in a row of increases. During those seven weeks, gasoline prices spiked by 91 cents. The Consumer Price Index for April, released a month ago, had softened based in part on the decline in the price of gasoline at the time, now obviated by a new reality. Compared to a year ago, the price of gasoline spiked by 64%, with perfect timing for summer driving season.The US West Coast is essentially cut off from the oil producing areas east of the Rockies as there is no crude oil pipeline across the mountains, and oil trains are an expensive way to get the oil across the mountains. The West Coast produces some of its own oil (California is the fourth largest oil producing state in the US), imports some from Alaska, occasionally gets some oil via oil trains, and imports the rest from other countries. But California is also a big exporter of gasoline and diesel, mostly to Latin America. How can gasoline prices be so high for locals when refineries export gasoline into competitive global markets? Every governor of California, including Governor Gavin Newsom in 2019, asked for a probe into gasoline price fixing in the state, because the industry is run by an oligopoly, and it’s pretty clear what is happening here, but those efforts all get squashed, and nothing – I mean zero – ever comes of it. So here we go, the average price of a gallon of regular in some key states on Monday, June 6:
- California: $6.18
- Massachusetts: $5.08
- Ohio: $4.81
- New York: $4.77
- Florida: $4.73
- Minnesota: $4.60
- Texas: $4.56
- Colorado: $4.59
Of the big cities that the EIA details separately, San Francisco nails the top spot with an average price of regular of $6.34 on June 6, followed by Los Angeles with regular at $6.13. By contrast, in Houston, the oil capital of the US, if not the world, the average gallon of regular cost $4.57 on Monday. Gasoline futures also rose to a new record on Monday intraday, kissing $4.25 briefly before backing off a little. The weekly chart – each bar represents one week’s price movements – shows just how spiky this product has gotten (chart via Investing.com):
U.S. Gasoline Prices Jump $0.30 In A Week To Fresh Record Of $4.92 - U.S. gasoline prices continue to surge, jumping by $0.30 a gallon in just one week to a new national average all-time high of $4.919 on Tuesday.Diesel prices also set a new record on Tuesday, at $5.684 per gallon.The weekly spike in gasoline prices, estimated at $0.32, is the second sharpest weekly rise since the Russian war on Ukraine began, Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at fuel-savings app GasBuddy, said late on Monday.Per AAA data, Tuesday’s national average of $4.919 per gallon compares with $4.622 just a week ago, $4.301 a month ago, and with $3.053 per gallon at this time last year.There are now 13 states with average gasoline prices exceeding $5 per gallon, according to GasBuddy estimates.GasBuddy’s De Haan expects average gasoline prices nationwide to hit the $5 a gallon mark as early as this week, on June 10, a week earlier than previously forecast.Still robust demand despite record-high prices, the lowest fuel inventory levels in years, and reduced refinery capacity post-COVID have been putting upward pressure on U.S. gasoline prices, along with the biggest factor of all—international crude oil prices at $120 per barrel.U.S. gasoline prices have been setting new records every day in the past few weeks, adding a lot of pressure on the Biden Administration, which has been seeking—to no avail—to bring prices down via various measures, including massive releases of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) or increased ethanol blending requirements. “People are still fueling up, despite these high prices,” AAA spokesperson Andrew Gross said on Monday. “At some point, drivers may change their daily driving habits or lifestyle due to these high prices, but we are not there yet.”
Gasoline prices top $5 a gallon nationally for the first time and are likely headed higher - The average price for a gallon of unleaded gasoline rose above $5 nationally for the first time due to increased demand from the economy reopening from the pandemic and depleted oil supplies stemming in part from the war in Ukraine. Prices look set to continue rising into the summer months, analysts said. According to AAA, the average national price reached $5.004 on Saturday. That's up from about $3.07 a year ago and a record price not adjusted for inflation. At the end of the week, prices had already averaged $5 or more in about 20 states, with the highest prices on the West Coast. "By my calculations, the typical household is spending about $160 more on gas a month than a year ago," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. "That's a big bite." Gasoline prices normally peak in mid-May, but this year they have continued to rise and the average price is about 65 cents higher than a month ago. Due to short supplies this year, analysts are forecasting that prices may not top out until mid-July, when summer driving season traditionally peaks. "I don't think we're far away" from the highest prices, said Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. "I don't think it would eclipse $5.50. I would say $5.25 is the top, but again, the market is unhinged." However, if there are any serious refinery outages this summer, or disruptions from hurricanes, gasoline prices could spike, he added. Gasoline is in shorter supply than normal because the U.S. has lost about 1 million barrels a day of refining capacity, since before the pandemic. At the same time, sanctions on Russian energy has sent oil prices sharply higher and created tight supplies of both oil and fuel globally. Analysts say while consumers are feeling pain at the pump, the price of fueling a car with gasoline is not as big a part of a household's spending as it had been in the past. That is in part due to more efficient vehicles. According to a CNBC analysis, drivers were spending an estimated average 20 cents per mile on gasoline as of June this year, even with the steep price increases. In 1980, that same mile would have cost 30 cents in today's dollars.
Domestic Crude Oil Peaked at $145 a Barrel in 2008. It Closed Yesterday at $118.50. So Why Is Gas at the Pump at All-Time Highs? - By Pam Martens and Russ Martens - Part of that, as the above stories illustrate, is just plain ole price gouging. But the big picture is more complicated than that. …And refining looks to be a particular problem right now. The EIA reports that as of January 1, 1982, the U.S. had 301 refineries in operation. That compares to just 129 in operation as of January 1, 2021. At a hearing before the House Committee on Energy and Commerce’s Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations on April 6, the President of Shell USA, Gretchen Watkins, testified as follows regarding the strains on the refinery industry:“To be clear, the mismatch of oil supply and demand predates the crisis in Ukraine. The onset of the Covid-19 pandemic initially caused unprecedented global economic contraction, including a historic drop in demand for transportation fuels. The most dramatic example of that came in spring 2020 when the crude oil market collapsed and the benchmark price for U.S. West Texas Intermediate went into negative pricing for the first time in history. The drop in demand resulted in a surplus of supplies of transportation fuels such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, requiring refineries to reduce production rates or shut down. In some instances, those shutdowns became permanent.“Today, demand has recovered and is now surpassing pre-pandemic levels for many transportation fuels. But refinery throughput has not yet caught up with the post-pandemic surge in demand. The loss of Russian supply from the global market has only added pressure on an already strained refining industry that has yet to fully catch up with increasing demand.“In response to the invasion of Ukraine, Shell announced our intent for a phased withdrawal from our involvement in Russian hydrocarbons, including crude oil, petroleum products, gas, and liquefied natural gas. Shell announced the intent to exit our joint ventures with Gazprom and related entities. This complex process is underway, and the global energy market’s reliance on Russian energy means it will take time to eliminate Russian hydrocarbons completely. Critical challenges need to be addressed along the way – from ensuring the safety of our staff, partners, and operations, to the need to sustain the supply of fuels that are essential to communities across Europe.“Although the overall consumption of Russian crude oil in the United States is relatively small, the loss of Russian feedstocks and gasoline blending components will have effects in the United States. The challenge is that feedstocks are needed to supplement some grades of crude oil and are part of refinery secondary units along the U.S. Gulf Coast, where they are upgraded to gasoline and diesel. Alternatives to some Russian feedstocks are very limited and in high demand. Refinery production of gasoline and diesel will reduce with the loss of Russian feedstocks and become more economically challenging as refiners compete for a limited pool of alternatives.”
Farmers Urged to Buy Diesel on Dips in the Market as Major Price Relief is Unlikely by Fall --Farmers may see a seasonal reprieve in diesel prices as distillers switch from making heating oil to transportation fuel, but there won't be a major correction to prices at the pump until global supply and demand for fuel fall back into alignment."We should start to see some relief, hopefully in the next month or so," DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman said. "Given that we're in a tight supply situation, it's not like I expect it to drop a dollar, but maybe 50 cents is reasonable."Seasonality is just one of the six factors DTN uses when analyzing commodity markets. The others are noncommercial and commercial trading positions, trend, price probability and volatility. (DTN provides subscribers with updated market strategies, based on Six Factors analysis, each day for a number of commodities. You can learn more with a free demo of MyDTN, which you can find here: https://www.dtn.com/….)But fuel markets are inextricable from geopolitical influence, and that's why the trend in the market has been, and will be, up.Jim McCormick, a co-founder of marketing and consulting firm AgMarket.Net, said supply and demand problems began with the pandemic and were exacerbated by the war in Ukraine. When the pandemic hit, U.S. consumers rapidly cut travel from their lives, causing energy prices to collapse."Remember when crude oil actually traded negative at one time because we had an oversupply in the marketplace?" he told DTN. "The energy market responded violently."The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. plunged from somewhere around 680 to 175 in the summer of 2020.Two years later, the economic forces are swinging hard back the other direction as Americans choose to travel over buying more goods."Oil industry production has not caught back up," he said, adding there are around 574 active oil rigs in the U.S. now. "So, we've rebounded quite a bit from the lows, but we still have about 100 fewer rigs pumping today than we did pre-pandemic."
As Gas Prices Near $5 a Gallon, Record Fuel Costs Upend Businesses, U.S. Economy - As U.S. gasoline prices approach a record average of $5 a gallon, fuel costs are rippling through almost every corner of business, with signs emerging that the rising expenses are beginning to alter consumer behavior. The price of regular gasoline averaged about $4.97 Thursday, up about 26 cents from the prior week and nearly $2-a-gallon higher compared with this time last year, according to AAA. The steady climb in prices comes as the U.S. economy’s recovery from the pandemic has let loose pent-up demand for travel , by road and by air, and with many returning to work commutes.
Vehicle Sales Mix and Heavy Trucks - It will be interesting to see if high gasoline prices will lead to a higher percentage of passenger car sales.The BEA released their estimate of vehicle sales for May last week.This graph shows the percent of light vehicle sales between passenger cars and trucks / SUVs through May 2022.Over time the mix has changed more and more towards light trucks and SUVs.Only when oil prices are high, does the trend slow or reverse. The percent of light trucks and SUVs was at 78.9% in May 2022 - just below the record high percentage of 80.0% last October.The second graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the May 2022 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR).Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Then heavy truck sales increased to a new all-time high of 563 thousand SAAR in September 2019. Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight." Heavy truck sales really declined at the beginning of the pandemic, falling to a low of 299 thousand SAAR in May 2020. Heavy truck sales were at 450 thousand SAAR in May, up from 442 thousand in April, and down 10% from 501 thousand SAAR in May 2021. If there is a slump in construction, then heavy truck sales will decline.
Used Vehicle Wholesale Prices Increased Slightly in May -- From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Increase in May - Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix-, mileage-, and seasonally adjusted basis) increased 0.7% in May from April. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index rose to 222.7, which was up 9.7% from a year ago. The non-adjusted price change in May was an increase of 1.1% compared to April, leaving the unadjusted average price up 12.1% year over year.Manheim Market Report (MMR) values saw a shift in price trends in May with prices increasing in the first three weeks but declining over the last two.This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions.The Manheim index suggests used car prices increased in May and are up 9.7% year-over-year (YoY).The YoY change is getting smaller. This index was up 45% YoY in January, up 14% in April, and now up less than 10% YoY.
Trade Deficit decreased to $87.1 Billion in AprilFrom the Department of Commerce reported:The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $87.1 billion in April, down $20.6 billion from $107.7 billion in March, revised.April exports were $252.6 billion, $8.5 billion more than March exports. April imports were $339.7 billion, $12.1 billion less than March imports. Exports increased and imports decreased in April.Exports are up 22% year-over-year; imports are up 24% year-over-year. Both imports and exports decreased sharply due to COVID-19, and have now bounced back (imports more than exports), The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum.The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.Note that net, imports and exports of petroleum products are close to zero.The trade deficit with China increased to $30.6 billion in April, from $25.5 billion a year ago.The trade deficit was smaller than the consensus forecast, and the deficit for March was revised down.
Trade Deficit Narrows Most on Record on Muted China Imports - The U.S. trade deficit shrunk in April by the most on record in dollar terms, reflecting a drop in the value of imports amid COVID lockdowns in China while exports climbed. The gap in goods and services trade narrowed $20.6 billion, or 19.1%, to $87.1 billion, Commerce Department data showed June 7. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for an $89.5 billion deficit. The figures aren’t adjusted for inflation. Imports dropped in April as factory activity in China fell to the lowest level since February 2020 amid strict lockdowns to curb the spread of COVID-19. While manufacturing in the country has improved since, the measures still are straining already tenuous global supply chains, especially when coupled with Russia’s war in Ukraine. The deficit with China decreased in April by $8.5 billion, the most in seven years. Imports dropped $10.1 billion, also the most since 2015. Decades-high inflation is expected to weigh on trade this year, with the World Trade Organization cutting its forecast for growth in global merchandise volumes. So far though, in the U.S., that hasn’t materialized yet, judging by the near-record amounts of goods that arrived at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in April. In the first quarter, the widening of the trade deficit largely explained the economy’s worst performance since the pandemic recovery began, with gross domestic product shrinking at a 1.5% annual pace. That is because the value of products American businesses and consumers bought from overseas outpaced purchases of U.S. goods and services by other economies. The value of imports of goods and services decreased 3.4% in April to $339.7 billion, the first drop since July in a broad-based decline. Exports increased 3.5% to a record $252.6 billion. U.S. merchandise imports plunged from a record in March, dropping 4.4%, the most since April 2020, reflecting a decline in inbound shipments of consumer goods, industrial supplies, capital goods and automobiles. Retailers such as Target Corp. and Walmart Inc. are trying to offload excess inventory, accumulated in part as consumers shift more of their spending from goods to services. That may portend fewer imports going forward. On an inflation-adjusted basis, the April merchandise-trade deficit narrowed 14.2% to $116.2 billion. The nominal merchandise-trade deficit narrowed to $107.7 billion. Travel exports — or spending by visitors to the U.S. — rose to $10.7 billion, the highest since February 2020. Travel imports, a measure of Americans traveling abroad, climbed for a third month to $8.3 billion, also the most since the onset of the pandemic
AAR: May Rail Carloads and Intermodal Down Year-over-year From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. It was more of the same for U.S. freight rail traffic in May 2022: some commodities did pretty well, some did not so well, and some were in between. Total carloads on U.S. railroads were down 3.7% in May, their second straight year-over-year decline and the third in the first five months of 2022. ... In May, U.S. intermodal volume averaged 275,640 units per week. That’s the highest weekly average for any month since June 2021 and the third-best weekly average for intermodal for May in history. May 2022 was down 4.3% from May 2021, which was the best May ever for intermodal..This graph from the Rail Time Indicators report shows the six-week average of U.S. Carloads in 2020, 2021 and 2022:Originated U.S. rail carloads totaled 928,742 in May 2022, down 3.7% (35,821 carloads) from May 2021. It’s the third year-over-year monthly decline in the first five months of 2022. Total carloads averaged 232,186 per week in May 2022. In our records that go back to 1988, only 2020 had a lower weekly average for May.The second graph shows the six-week average (not monthly) of U.S. intermodal in 2020, 2021 and 2022: (using intermodal or shipping containers): Intermodal is not included in carloads. In May 2022, U.S. intermodal volume was 1.10 million containers and trailers, an average of 275,640 units per week. That’s the highest weekly average for any month since June 2021 and the third-best weekly average for intermodal for May in history. Still, it was down 4.3% from May 2021, which was the best May ever for intermodal. (May 2018 was also higher than May 2022.)
Proposed New York state minimum wage increases would lift wages for more than 2 million workers through 2026: Minimum wages would range by region from $16.35 to $21.25 per hour by 2026 - EPI Blog - Proposed legislation in the New York state legislature would ensure that low-wage workers in New York are protected from rising prices and benefit from improvements in the broader economy. Senate bill S3062C and assembly bill A7503B would schedule annual increases to the minimum wage that would be linked (or “indexed”) to the combination of the consumer price index (CPI) and a measure of labor productivity. We estimate that the resulting increases in the state minimum wage would lift wages for more than 2 million New Yorkers through 2026.New York’s minimum wage law sets separate minimum wages for three different regions of the state: New York City, the suburban counties of Nassau, Suffolk, and Westchester, and the remainder of upstate New York. Under current projections1 for inflation and labor productivity, as shown in Table 1, indexing the minimum wage to changes in prices and productivity would increase New York City’s minimum wage from $15.00 where it is now to $21.25 by 2026. Nassau, Suffolk, and Westchester counties’ minimum wage would rise from $15.00 to $18.65 by 2026, and the rest of the state would increase from $13.20 to $16.35.Since New York state law sets the minimum wage for tipped workers (also known as the “tipped minimum wage”) at two-thirds of the regular minimum wage, these changes would also lead to a rising tipped minimum wage and pay increases for the state’s tipped workers. As discussed more below, indexing the minimum wage in this way would protect the buying power of millions of low-wage workers’ paychecks and, in particular, improve the economic security of predominantly women, Black, and Latinx workers.
Understanding economic disparities within the AAPI community - The U.S. Asian American/Pacific Islander (AAPI) community encompasses over 24 million people, with origins spanning countries in central, east, and southeast Asia, the Indian subcontinent, as well as the island nations in the Pacific.1 This diverse population has been growing rapidly in the United States: Between 2010 and 2020, there was a nearly 40% increase in the number of people who identified as Asian alone or in combination, and a 30% increase for Native Hawaiians and other Pacific Islanders.Whether they have immigrated recently or lived in the United States for centuries, the AAPI community is a vital piece of American society and the workforce. It is important to note, however, that this group is not a monolith, and examining AAPIs as an aggregate can obscure the economic reality for many groups within the AAPI community. In this post, we examine this varied group in more detail and calculate their hourly wages at a disaggregated level to shed greater light on the actual economic circumstances of Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders, and the economic disparities they may face.Figure A breaks down the AAPI population by country of origin. Examining disaggregated population sizes can tell us a few things. First, people with ancestry from a lot of different countries are subsumed within this broad categorization. Not even counting the “other” Asian American and Pacific Islanders, more than 26 different nations—each with their own distinct culture, history, and demographic pattern—make up the AAPI group. The broad generalization inherent in the AAPI categorization can have serious implications for economic policymaking as well as budget and resource allocation.Second, averages and estimates for the AAPI population as a whole will be weighted upwards by the largest racial groups. For example, Chinese Americans, Indian Americans, and Filipino Americans make up over half of the entire AAPI category in terms of population. This upward biasing can yield overall figures that are not representative of the entire AAPI population, nor the countries of origin represented in that catch-all. What this means in practice is that aggregate economic statistics show AAPIs to be doing relatively well economically. For example, in May 2022, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for Asians (not including Pacific Islanders) was 2.4%, significantly lower than the national rate of 3.6%. Similarly, the median household income for Asian Americans as a whole was $16,000 higher than the national figure. While this accurately shows that many Asian Americans are economically secure, this is not the whole story.
Caterpillar worker falls into molten iron crucible and dies at the Mapleton, Illinois foundry - -- A 39-year-old Caterpillar worker fell into a molten iron crucible of over 2,600 degrees Fahrenheit and died immediately last Thursday at the company’s Mapleton, Illinois foundry, the second worker death at the facility in six months.
Abbott Nutrition resumes production of baby formula at Michigan facility following contamination -Abbott Nutrition has restarted production at a Michigan baby formula factory that was previously shut down due to contamination, contributing to a nationwide shortage of formula. "We will ramp production as quickly as we can while meeting all requirements," Abbott said in a statement. "We're committed to safety and quality and will do everything we can to re-earn the trust parents, caregivers and health care providers have placed in us for 130 years."Abbott, the largest infant formula manufacturer in the US, said it will take approximately three weeks for products to hit store shelves. The Abbott Nutrition plant in Sturgis shut down in February following complaints of illness in infants who consumed formula products manufactured there, two of whom later died. The illnesses were linked to the environmental bacteria, cronobacter sakazakii.
Ohio attorney general prosecuted more than 100 nursing home workers, but no owners -- In answer to the question “Why do nursing homes often have a bad reputation?,” nurse Jill E. Griffin answered: “Often they are warehouses for people who have no perceived use. Generally that’s the elderly and the dying…. The employees are paid the least amount that they will work for, which is usually less than they need to live well on…. The owners are literally making a profit off of paying the least they can to provide care for those who generally have the highest needs, by taking advantage of their workers’ basic humanity. Most of the nursing homes in the USA are for profit. Think about that for a moment… really think about making a profit on the sick and dying.” Many nurses and others are familiar with the indictment and trial of hospital nurse RaDonda Vaught for a medication error. Nurses by the thousands campaigned in her defense. Even more than hospital settings, nursing homes are infamous for having terrible conditions. In recent years, state prosecutors have adopted a policy of indicting nurses to scapegoat them for the unsafe conditions created by their owners. An example can be seen in Ohio, where state Attorney General Dave Yost has viciously gone after nursing home staff, bringing charges of varying severity against 106 workers, but none against the owners responsible overall. A particularly outrageous case involved James Chandler, who had been a patient in Whetstone Gardens and Care Center in Columbus for several years and had extremely serious health problems. He was taken to a hospital in May 2017 where he died from septic shock that was the result of a bedsore. The nurses Yost indicted had worked at Whetstone during that time.In December 2017, Whetstone was fined $98,765.45 by the federal Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) for problems outlined in an April 2017 investigation by the Ohio Department of Health, which identified practices that placed 123 patients at risk of serious harm. Following that, the Ohio Attorney General's office conducted its own investigation so it could indict the workers, which it did in in February 2019. The seven defendants, who worked at Whetstone in 2017, faced 34 charges, including involuntary manslaughter, patient neglect and tampering with records. Nurses are not responsible for directing, certifying, inspecting, paying and supervising nursing homes. Those responsibilities lie with the owners and state and federal agencies. For years, nursing homes have been synonymous with the poorest quality care. Federal government statistics rate Ohio's nursing homes quality of care among the nation's lowest. Some facts highlight Ohio nursing home deficiencies. Medicare reports that of 966 nursing homes in the state, 212 (32 percent) were found to have severe violations and deficiencies that led to harm. Nursing homes are required to provide only 2.5 hours a day of nursing staff time for each resident. Additionally, the state requires only 75 hours of training for aides who are the main caregivers.
Footage released of man who drowned in Tempe Lake as officers watched - Tempe released edited body camera footage from officers that shows aman drowning in Tempe Town Lake as officers watched and did not step in to help.The victim was identified as Sean Bickings, 34. According to a transcript of the footage provided by the city, Bickings told Tempe police he was drowning and begged officers for help as they stood by and told him they were not "jumping in after you." This portion of the footage was not included in the edited video released to The Arizona Republic. Since release of the footage, the Tempe Officers Association, the police union for the department, described the drowning as a "human tragedy," but stated officers do not possess water-rescue training and lack equipment to perform water rescues without putting the officer at risk. Bickings was an unsheltered member of the Tempe community, the city said in a statement released on Friday. The three officers who responded to the incident are currently under non-disciplinary administrative paid leave. Within the day of the drowning, police issued a statement saying a man ran and jumped over a fence and into Tempe Lake, just east of the pedestrian bridge. According to that release, officers maintained communication with the man and tried to get him to the bridge, but the man "was uncooperative" with rescue efforts. Local activists rejected the story, saying officers stood by and watched Bickings drown. The footage was released Monday to The Republic.Body camera footage shows officers responding to a report of a verbal domestic confrontation on May 28 around 5 a.m. at the Tempe Center for the Arts located at 700 W. Rio Salado Parkway.The video shows officers speaking separately to Bickings and to a woman who identified herself as Bickings' wife. The woman told officers she and Bickings had engaged in a discussion but that he had not been physically violent. An original statement from the Tempe Police Department indicated Bickings had jumped into the lake in an attempt to evade police after officials did a background check and found three outstanding warrants.
Second mass shooting in a week in Chattanooga is one of nine such incidents in the US last weekend - Three people were left dead and 14 injured in the second mass shooting in Chattanooga, Tennessee within a week. Police suspect multiple shooters opened fire outside of a downtown bar in the early hours of Sunday morning. Two victims died of gunshot wounds while a third person was killed by a vehicle fleeing the scene.Only a week earlier, six young people were shot when two groups of juveniles exchanged gunfire in the tourism district of downtown Chattanooga where the Tennessee Aquarium, as well as restaurants and other attractions, are located. The victims of the gunfight were bystanders ranging in age from 13 to 15 years old. Two of the six injured in the gunfire are hospitalized in critical condition after patrol officers reported hearing gunfire at around 11 p.m. on May 28. Sunday’s mass shooting in Chattanooga occurred mere hours after gunfire erupted in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania’s busy entertainment district killing three people and wounding 14 others enjoying themselves on Saturday night.According to a CNN report Monday, nine mass shootings had taken place since Friday, June 3. These followed two successive weeks during which 10 people were gunned down by a fascist gunman in a grocery store in Buffalo, New York on May 14 and 19 elementary school children and two teachers were murdered by a high school student in Uvalde, Texas on May 24. Three hospital staff and a patient died when a disgruntled patient opened fire in a Tulsa, Oklahoma medical facility on June 1. In an interview with Fox News following Sunday’s shooting, Chattanooga Mayor Tim Kelly blamed the rise in violent crime in the city on the impact of COVID-19 on impoverished communities and the sale of “tens of millions” of guns since the beginning of the pandemic.
Judge blocks Texas investigating families of trans youth --A Texas judge on Friday temporarily blocked the state from investigating families of transgender children who have received gender-confirming medical care, a new obstacle to the state labeling such treatments as child abuse. The temporary restraining order issued by Judge Jan Soifer halts investigations against three families who sued, and prevents any similar investigations against members of the LGBTQ advocacy group PFLAG Inc. The group has more than 600 members in Texas. “I do find that there is sufficient reason to believe that the plaintiffs will suffer immediate and irreparable injury if the commissioner and the (Department of Family and Protective Services) are allowed to continue to implement and enforce this new Department rule that equates gender affirming care with child abuse,” Soifer said at the end of a roughly 40-minute hearing. The ruling comes about a month after the Texas Supreme Court allowed the state to investigate parents of transgender youth for child abuse while also ruling in favor of one family that was among the first contacted by child welfare officials following order by Republican Gov. Greg Abbott. “That families will be protected from invasive, unnecessary, and unnerving investigations by DFPS simply for helping their transgender children thrive and be themselves is a very good thing,” Brian K. Bond, executive director of PFLAG National, said in a statement. “However, let’s be clear: These investigations into loving and affirming families shouldn’t be happening in the first place.” The latest challenge was brought by Lambda Legal and the American Civil Liberties Union on behalf of the families of three teenage boys — two 16-year-olds and a 14-year-old — and PFLAG. An attorney for Lambda Legal told the judge that the 14-year-old’s family had learned after the lawsuit’s filing that the state’s investigation into them had been dropped. Spokespeople for Abbott and Attorney General Ken Paxton did not immediately respond to requests for comment Friday afternoon.#160;
Policymakers should help students achieve, not lower the bar -There’s simply no dispute about the toll the past two years of “COVID education” have taken on students. Michigan State researchers found that each month of remote instruction put another 1 percent of the state’s students “significantly behind” in math, and about half that many in reading. Low-income learners, who could least afford the setback, lost the most ground.The findings of another recent study from around the country mirrored these results on a larger scale. Schools serving children in poverty were most likely to close classroom doors the longest, slowing down all students academically and widening the gap between those of different economic backgrounds.The problem offers no easy solutions. But schools at least should stop doing harm. A newanalysis published in Education Week found average student scores on the ACT college entrance exam declined over the past decade, even as high school grade-point averages rose and accelerated during the pandemic. Grade inflation may soothe some pains for the moment, but it only leaves more students at the mercy of remedial college classes that undermine their ability to earn a degree.Rather than lowering the bar, policymakers should reinforce a shared commitment to help students overcome obstacles and reach their potential. One way to at least alleviate the effects of missing out on key months of in-person instruction is to provide quality supplemental services. For students who have fallen behind, tutoring has been shown to boost achievement. Many moms and dads understand this, and they are looking for help. About a quarter of parents told a recent national survey that they are either looking, or planning to look, for tutoring services to help their child.
Initial official story on police response to Uvalde shooting crumbles -More evidence and new witnesses continue to undermine the accounts given by Uvalde police and Texas state officials about the course of events and the actions taken during the horrific massacre of 19 school children and two teachers at Robb Elementary School on May 24. A funeral home worker whose workplace is across the street from the school told Telemundo and NBC News Sunday that after he had seen the gunman enter the school with an assault rifle, he had armed himself and was prepared to charge into the school after him but was stopped by police who had cordoned off the building. Cody Briseno saw the shooter, Salvador Ramos, crash his pickup truck outside the school, and he and a co-worker went to help him. They retreated after seeing the youth was loading his AR-15 assault rifle, and went back inside their workplace. Briseno called his wife and asked her to bring his gun from home. Once armed, he marched toward the school. He told NBC that a police officer asked him what he was doing, and he responded, “I’m going to go in and try to stop them,” telling the policeman the gunman was already inside the school. The cop told him to stay back and shut up. The funeral home worker has since given a statement to the Texas Rangers, the agency that is investigating the police response to the Uvalde massacre. Other accounts confirm that the main concern of the police officials on the scene appeared to be controlling the crowd of parents outside the school and pushing them back, along with the press, not rushing the school to stop the gunman’s rampage. Ramos was not confronted by police and shot dead until 77 minutes after the first police unit arrived outside Robb Elementary. This policy contradicts standard police doctrine for an active shooter, where the usual tactic is to rush in immediately with whatever officers and equipment are on hand so as to disrupt the attack before it can claim more lives. This is what is taught in active shooter classes in most police departments including in Texas, where the manual on shootings, released in 2020, declares: “A first responder unwilling to place the lives of the innocent above their own safety should consider another career field.”
March for Our Lives planning more than 50 meetings with lawmakers -Student-led organization March for Our Lives has announced plans to hold more than 50 meetings with lawmakers to demand gun reform legislation following a recent string of mass shootings in the U.S. In a statement on Monday, the group said its activists have arranged more than 50 meetings with lawmakers on both sides of the aisle in an effort to pass legislation to curb gun violence in the U.S. The organization said the meetings on Capitol Hill will set the stage for next week, when it is planning more than 450 demonstrations across the world to demand gun reform. March for Our Lives was launched in 2018 in response to the massacre at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Fla., where 17 students and teachers were killed. Their latest actions follow an even deadlier shooting in Uvalde, Texas, that left 19 elementary school students and two teachers dead, and another massacre last month targeting Black people in a Buffalo, N.Y., grocery store that killed 10. “This moment is different. Fueled by a growing movement of Americans from all backgrounds, politicians are more willing to find common ground and work toward solutions. Real lives are being lost, and real children are suffering, including in their districts,” the organization said in its statement. “March For Our Lives will be on the Hill all week to look lawmakers in the eye and get commitments on record to curb this epidemic,” it added.
Loaded guns found at Parkland school belong to principal: report -Two loaded guns belonging to a Florida charter school principal were accidentally brought onto the school’s campus Thursday morning, WPLG reported.Somerset Parkland Academy school representatives sent a letter to parents saying a closed box containing two firearms was left unattended inside a locked room in the school. The box was found by a school resource officer and turned over to detectives, the report said.Investigators later determined the weapons belonged to the school’s principal, Geyler Castro.The letter said someone had unloaded a number of items from the principal’s car and unknowingly took the box containing the firearms into the school.Broward County Sheriff’s Office deputies investigated the matter and determined there was no threat to students, the letter said, according to WPLG.“No one intended to bring a weapon into the building. The box was among many items brought into the locked room from the principal’s vehicle,” the letter continued.Parents told WSVN they were shocked to learn of the news, and it took the school more than 24 hours to notify them of the incident.“I mean, I didn’t hear anything,” parent Jincy Mathews told the outlet. “What the heck? Oh, my God.”“It’s scary. What you’re telling me is scary,” Mathews continued. “Telling the kids not to bring those types of things onto campus, so she should be the model.” Somerset Academy is located in Parkland, less than three miles from Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School, the scene of the deadly 2018 mass shooting.
Tennessee Governor Signs Executive Order To Enhance School Safety, Calls For 'Single Point Of Entry' -- Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee signed an executive order on Monday to ensure working safety protocols at schools, and to evaluate training for law enforcement for handling active shooter scenarios, in a bid to fortify school security across the state after the recent mass shooting at a school in Texas in which 21 people were killed.“Parents need to have full confidence that their children are safe at school, and thankfully, Tennessee has built a firm foundation with our practical approach to securing schools, recognizing crisis, and providing confidential reporting of any suspicious activity,” Lee, a Republican, said in a statement.“This order strengthens accountability and transparency around existing school safety planning and assures Tennessee parents that our efforts to protect students and teachers will continue.” For parents, the executive order (pdf) creates a “School Safety Resources and Engagement Guide” to provide parents with information about how to report suspicious or concerning activity to school administrators and local law enforcement. The guide would also help parents inquire about building security and compliance at their child’s school, and provides parents ways to access mental health resources for their child.Lee in the order called on parents and the community to work with law enforcement to ensure simple practices, such as “ensuring a single point of entry and multiple points of exit, securing vestibules and other access points, and reporting suspicious activity.”Tennessee state agencies will also provide more guidance to help local school districts implement current school safety law. Under the law, public schools are required each year to carry out a school security assessment and submit a safety plan to the state’s school safety center.The guidance will include more frequent audits of local school security assessments and safety plans, and will also provide a set of “best practices” for school leaders to enhance the security of a building against an intruder.
What will actually make schools safer --As the school year ends across the country, parents are asking a question that would have been unthinkable a generation ago: Is my child safer because they are not going to school today? Such a question should be unthinkable, but the murder of 19 students and two teachers in Uvalde, Texas, was another reminder that schools — like shopping centers, churches and movie theaters — have become targets for mass shootings. The assailants are almost always young men, who express their anger or grievances with a gun, often an AR-15. After the Uvalde shooting, I joined other experts in calling for steps to reduce gun violence at schools. Sadly, that statement was merely an updated version of the plea we made in 2018, following the murders at Stoneman Douglass High School in Parkland, Fla. Since that horrific incident no meaningful action has been taken by policy makers, and kids continue to be killed in school. It is important to note that while the killers in Uvalde and Sandy Hook were unaffiliated with the schools they attacked, most often, the shooters have been students at the schools where the violence has occurred. In such cases, there are strategies that can be pursued that will help to make schools safer. First, every school can be encouraged to establish measures so that every student and their needs are known. Since the Columbine massacre of 1999, there have been many cases where the kids were aware that a problem was brewing before the adults. We know that student anonymity in school increases the likelihood that kids in need go unnoticed. We also know that if kids trust you, they will be more likely to speak up when a threat is brewing. They will alert the educators if another student has been issuing threats or is carrying a weapon, especially if they believe they will be protected when they speak up. Second, we should prioritize hiring sufficient numbers of counselors, social workers, and school psychiatrists. Teachers should not be expected to address all of the needs of kids by themselves. They must have well-trained professionals that they can refer students to when a need is apparent. Rather than arming teachers we must provide them with the support they need. Third, all schools should implement annual school climate surveys so that students can report whether or not they feel physically and emotionally safe at school. Such surveys can also help in identifying students in need of intervention. In the aftermath of other mass shootings, we have seen some politicians refuse to address access to guns and instead talk at length about the need to focus on mental health. That might make sense if they offered concrete suggestions about what should be done, especially while the nation is in the grips of a pervasive mental health crisis. However, let’s be clear about two things: Violence is not intrinsically a byproduct of mental illness. We must make sure that as policy makers rush to act like they’re “doing something” that we do not adopt policies that will increase the stigma on people suffering from mental illness and make it even less likely that they will be open to receiving help.
Florida high school raffles off AK47, guns week after Uvalde shooting - A Florida high school raffled off guns and other weaponry through a month-long fundraising campaign that ended Wednesday. James Madison Preparatory High School in Madison, a charter school, raffled off fishing and hunting gear and firearms, including handguns and semi-automatic rifles, in a $100-per-ticket raffle that started May 2. The raffle went on largely unimpeded despite two horrific, national tragedies: mass shootings at a Buffalo supermarket and an elementary school in Texas that left nearly three dozen people dead last month. "Giveaways like this emphasize the need for background checks on all gun sales and transfers," said Nancy Fry, a volunteer for the Florida chapter of Moms Demand Action in Broward County. In Florida, transfers and unlicensed sales of firearms do not require background checks. Only licensed sellers are required to perform background checks. The flyer for the raffle does not say whether the school would conduct background checks on the winners. "This giveaway does not promote safe gun ownership, which should go hand in hand with hunting and with sport shooting," Fry said. "This is just an unnecessary abdication of a school’s duty to keep their students and community safe."
New study: College students experienced more obsessive-compulsive disorder symptoms during COVID-19 pandemic - The COVID-19 pandemic has taken millions of lives and infected hundreds of millions of people around the world. The pandemic has also had a profound impact on the mental health of everyone from health workers to students.A new study using data gathered by the Visual Cognition Lab at the George Washington University explores the impact of the pandemic on symptoms associated with obsessive-compulsive disorder. The study found that college students tested during the peak of the pandemic reported a higher incidence of two key OCD symptoms: unacceptable thoughts and fear of contamination.“This study is a nice example of how data gathered for one purpose—in this case, studying individual differences in cognitive abilities—can be used to explore orthogonal questions that may be of particular interest to the broader community,” Stephen R. Mitroff, a professor of cognitive neuroscience at GW, said. “It is exciting to be able to leverage this data to add to the study of how the pandemic has impacted the college students’ mental health.”Although concerns about contracting COVID-19 generally eased during the latter stages of the pandemic, students continued to experience an elevated amount of unpleasant or unwanted thoughts. Interestingly, even though males and females tend to exhibit different OCD behaviors, the reported symptoms were consistent across genders. The results of this study were consistent with recent research uncovering increased OCD symptoms among children and adolescents during the COVID-19 pandemic.Experts believe 2-3% of adults in the United States have OCD, but perhaps more than 90% of the population experiences undiagnosed, less disruptive OCD symptoms. The results of this study can contribute to the growing research on the prevalence of mental illness among college students and the possible role of environmental factors in the development of OCD. The study, “Increases in symptoms associated with obsessive-compulsive disorder among university students during the COVID-19 pandemic,” was published June 3, 2022, in the Journal of American College Health.
A federal judge just denied a student-loan borrower's request to postpone her $95,000 debt cancellation hearing as she undergoes cancer treatment -- Three months ago, a federal judge ruled Heather Smart can postpone her hearing to get rid of her student debt through bankruptcy as she undergoes cancer treatment. Now, that same judge says it's time for Smart to go to court.Smart filed for bankruptcy of her $95,181.92 student debt load in December because of unemployment caused by "receiving extensive medical care and treatment for myriad issues relating to several forms of aggressive and invasive cancer, as well as a blood disorder," according to a court filing. She claimed her situation prevented her from making sufficient income to pay off her loans.The Education Department wrote at the time that Smart did not qualify for bankruptcy discharge because when her "health improves, she has college degrees and is capable of maintaining full-time employment and can maintain an appropriate standard of living while repaying her loans." But a US bankruptcy judge for the Southern District of Texas allowed her to postpone her hearing while she was undergoing treatments.Last week, Smart requested further postponement of her hearings because she "is currently in the lengthy process of diagnosing, planning, and executing a treatment plan for myriad medical issues," including cancer and a blood disorder, per the court filing. She is waiting to find out whether her disability is permanent, which could significantly impact the outcome of her student-loan repayment. "Trial in this case has been set and then reset on numerous occasions," Judge Jeffrey Norman wrote. "This matter must be concluded. An indefinite suspension does not do justice."
"California Wants to Slash Insulin Prices by Becoming a Drugmaker. Can it Succeed? California is diving into the prescription drug business, attempting to achieve what no other state has done: produce its own brand of generic insulin and sell it at below-market prices to people with diabetes like Sabrina Caudillo.Caudillo said she feels like a “prisoner” to the three major pharmaceutical companies that control the price of insulin, which ranges from $300 to $400 per vial without insurance. The price Caudillo paid in 2017, when she was diagnosed, is etched into her memory: $274.“I remember crying my eyes out at CVS and realizing it’s going to be like this for the rest of my life,” said Caudillo, 24, a college student who lives in La Puente, in Southern California. She now has insurance that covers the entire cost of the lifesaving drug but still has trouble affording her insulin supplies and paying the monthly premium for her plan.“This disease is really expensive, and I’m barely making it every month,” Caudillo said.Gov. Gavin Newsom’s administration said roughly 4 million Californians have been diagnosed with diabetes, a disease that can destroy organs, steal eyesight, and lead to amputations if it’s not controlled. One in 4 people who have diabetes and rely on insulin cannot afford it, forcing many to ration or forgo the drug, the administration added.Newsom is asking state lawmakers to pump $100 million into an ambitious initiative to launch California’s generic drug label, CalRx, and begin producing insulin in the next few years, said Alex Stack, a Newsom spokesperson. The state is also working to identify other generic drugs it could bring to market, targeting those that are expensive or in short supply.To start, the goal is to dramatically slash insulin prices and make it available to “millions of Californians” via pharmacies, retail stores, and mail order, said Dr. Mark Ghaly, secretary of the California Health and Human Services Agency.But state health officials are still negotiating a contract with a drug manufacturer to make and distribute insulin and have not answered key questions such as how cheaply insulin could be produced and what patients would pay. To be successful, California — and the company it partners with — must navigate a complicated pharmaceutical distribution system that relies not only on drug manufacturers but also middleman companies that work hand in hand with health insurers. Those companies, known as pharmacy benefit managers, negotiate with manufacturers on behalf of insurers for rebates and discounts on drugs — but insurers don’t always pass those savings on to consumers.“Insulin has long epitomized the market failures that plague the pharmaceutical industry, which have resulted in keeping insulin prices high,” Vishaal Pegany, assistant secretary of the Health and Human Services Agency, told lawmakers in May. He argued that high prices “have directly harmed Californians.” Newsom said in early May that disrupting monopolistic drug prices requires state intervention and that California can pull it off because the state — with 40 million residents — “has market power.” But the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office questioned whether California can produce its own drugs and achieve lower insulin prices. Luke Koushmaro, a senior fiscal and policy analyst with the office, warned at a legislative hearing in May that the effort could be hampered by “considerable uncertainties” — a sentiment echoed by some Democratic lawmakers.
"Youth Transplants" Really Can Slow Aging Process - Stanford scientists find infusions of cerebrospinal fluid can regenerate the brain’s memory centre and may help to rejuvenate elderly bodies. Harvesting the blood and body parts of the young in the hope of achieving immortality has long been a familiar trope in horror novels and conspiracy theories.But as macabre as it sounds, science is beginning to discover that “youth transplants” really can slow down the ageing process.The fountain of youth, it seems, is youth itself.Although nobody is suggesting we siphon the bodily fluids of youngsters into our elderly, it opens the door to artificially replicating the cocktail of chemicals found in young people.Young people have more powerful cells which operate more efficiently and could restore vitality to ageing systems.This week Stanford University showed that infusing cerebrospinal fluid of young mice into old mice improves brain function, a breakthrough which could have enormous implications for dementia and other neurodegenerative conditions. Cerebrospinal fluid is a clear liquid found within the tissue that surrounds the brain and spinal cord of humans, and is packed full of nutrients, signalling molecules and growth factors which nourish neurons.The Stanford team infused fluid from 10-week-old mice into the brains of 18-month-old mice over seven days, and found that older mice were better at remembering to associate a small electric shock with a noise and flashing light.Closer examination showed the fluid had “woken up” processes which regenerate neurons and myelin – the fatty material that protects nerve cells within the hippocampus, the memory centre of the brain.
Heart failure patients unvaccinated against COVID-19 are three times more likely to die from it than boosted heart failure patients -Mount Sinai researchers conducted a retrospective study to analyze the impact of COVID-19 vaccination status in the heart failure patient population. They looked at electronic records of 7,094 patients from the Mount Sinai Health System with a heart failure diagnosis (not including heart transplant and left ventricular assist device patients) who had office visits, emergency department visits, or hospitalizations between January 1, 2021, and January 24, 2022. Of that group, 2,200 (31 percent) were fully vaccinated with two doses, 1,053 (14.8 percent) were fully vaccinated and had also received one booster – the recommended guidance from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention at that time; 645 (9.1 percent) were partially vaccinated with only one dose, and 3,196 (45 percent) were unvaccinated. That unvaccinated proportion in this study is approximately double the proportion of unvaccinated adults in the general New York City population.Researchers compared survival rates and numbers of admissions to the hospital and intensive care units between the groups, looking at both all-cause mortality and mortality associated with concurrent, documented SARS-CoV-2 infection. They found the unvaccinated and partially vaccinated patients were three times more likely to die from COVID-19-related illness than fully vaccinated and boosted patients. The study goes on to show that unvaccinated and partially vaccinated patients were 15 percent more likely to be hospitalized if infected with the virus and nearly twice as likely to be admitted to the ICU when compared to fully vaccinated and boosted patients. “The findings further emphasize that heart failure patients need to take vaccines seriously, since they have worse outcomes if infected with COVID-19, and stresses the importance of receiving the full COVID-19 vaccination dosage, especially since our previous work shows those with heart failure are 2.5 times more likely to die from the virus,” Dr. Lala adds. “I have used these results to help educate reluctant patients and in many cases this has been effective in encouraging them and getting them to follow through with full vaccination. The hope is that cardiologists will use these results as a tool to help their patients and improve their chances of survival.”
Study explores if prior infection with SARS-CoV-2 increased sensitivity to a mitochondrial toxin known to induce Parkinsonism -- Viral infections sometimes affect non-target organs, including the brain, to cause neurological symptoms. With encephalitis lethargica, the mechanism was an imputed affinity of the virus for catecholamine-secreting neurons in the midbrain, specifically in the substantia nigra and locus ceruleus, two areas characteristically affected in Parkinson’s disease (PD). Inflammatory lesions or glial activation in the brain could also contribute to or account for the damage. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic was caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and has caused over 500 million cases globally. Though it causes mostly respiratory symptoms, other organs are also affected, directly or indirectly, as a result of the cytokine storm induced by the dysregulation of the immune-inflammatory response. The authors of the current study, to be published online in the journal Movement Disorders, looked at the potential for an increased risk of parkinsonism following a bout of SARS-CoV-2 infection through accepted post-viral mechanisms. They used a mouse model that expressed the human angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (hACE2) to study the neurological effects of the infection.The animals were first infected with the virus at increasing titers. While the lower doses did not cause morbidity or mortality, the medium and higher doses were associated with symptoms and/or mortality in ~30% and 67% of cases.The animals that died or were euthanized (when they lost 20% or more of their weight) appeared severely ill, but survivors remained euthermic and had normal blood oxygen levels. At 38 days after recovery, they were then inoculated to a mitochondrial poison, 1-methyl-4-phenyl-1,2,3,6-tetrahydropyridine (MPTP), at subthreshold levels for toxicity. The aim was to induce some of the hallmark features of PD by the resulting low inflammation. The findings revealed that the recovered animals exposed to MPTP developed features of PD more readily compared to either the mice that were infected and recovered or were exposed to the chemical alone. No dopaminergic neuron loss was observed in any group other than the infection+MPTP group, which showed from a fifth to a quarter more damage than either the infection or the toxin alone. When the striatal dopaminergic terminals alone were assessed, the differences were significant, with more than half being lost after MPTP use alone or associated with the infection, compared to the vehicle alone. In other words, despite the lower extent of dopaminergic neuron loss, the striatal terminal loss was comparable in both groups, indicating the greater sensitivity of the latter to oxidative stress induced by mitochondrial damage.
FDA advisers vote to recommend Novavax Covid-19 vaccine - The Food and Drug Administration’s independent vaccine advisory committee voted 21 to 0, with one abstention, to recommend that regulators authorize the Novavax Covid-19 vaccine for emergency use in adults, finding the benefits of its two-dose primary series outweigh the potential risks. Advisers signaled interest in making available a vaccine made with a technology different from the messenger RNA shots that have dominated the U.S. immunization arsenal against the disease, in hopes of convincing unvaccinated holdouts to change their minds. An older vaccine technology formulation could be an option for those who are allergic to components of the mRNA shots. “Having a protein-based alternative may be more comfortable for some in terms of their acceptance of vaccines,” said Peter Marks, FDA’s top vaccine regulator. The committee agreed that the FDA should come to an agreement with Novavax on how the company will identify and evaluate a possible causal link between its vaccine and cases of heart inflammation. FDA reviewers said they suspect such an association based on a handful of myocarditis and pericarditis cases that arose during the clinical trial within days of immunization, though the company has argued there’s not yet enough evidence to establish a definitive link. The FDA added a warning last summer to the fact sheets for Pfizer’s and Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccines about the rare risk of developing inflammatory heart conditions. In a late-stage clinical trial with roughly 25,657 adults in the U.S. and Mexico, Novavax’s Covid-19 vaccine was more than 90 percent effective at preventing all Covid-19 vaccine infections and 100 percent effective at preventing moderate or severe cases. Of the roughly 17,272 people who received the vaccine, 17 developed mild Covid-19 within a week after their second shot, compared to 79 people who developed mild, moderate or severe Covid-19 in the 8,385-member placebo group. The majority of Covid-19 cases in the trial were the result of the Alpha variant. Novavax’s product is a recombinant protein-based inoculation that’s derived from moth cells — an older technology that’s more time-consuming to manufacture than its rivals made by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna. Prior to the advisory committee meeting, Novavax executives expressed optimism that their vaccine would be an appealing alternative for those who remain hesitant to receive mRNA-based vaccines.
Moderna’s Covid-19 Vaccine Targeting Omicron Produces Stronger Immune Response - Moderna Inc. said a modified Covid-19 booster shot provided a stronger immune response than the company’s original vaccine against the Omicron variant in a new study. The Cambridge, Mass., company said Wednesday it will submit preliminary data from the study to U.S. health regulators in the coming weeks with the hope of making the modified booster shot available in late summer.
FDA says Moderna COVID vaccine safe and effective for young children - Reviewers at the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) said in briefing documents released on Friday that Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine is both effective and safe for children under 6 years old. The analysis comes ahead of several advisory committee meetings next week to weigh giving approval to Moderna’s and Pfizer’s vaccines for young children. “Available data support the effectiveness of the Moderna COVID-19 Vaccine in preventing symptomatic COVID-19 in pediatric age groups from 6 months through 17 years of age,” staff at the FDA wrote. The FDA staff noted that rates of adverse reactions were found to be similar between young adults and those aged between 12 and 17 years old. “In children 6 months through 11 years of age, rates of solicited local and systemic adverse reactions were generally lower compared to those observed in adolescents and in previous clinical trials with young adults, with the exception of fever which was reported more frequently in the younger age groups compared to adolescents and adults,” FDA staff said. The FDA’s analysis of the Moderna vaccine is promising news for parents who are anxious to vaccinate younger children. So far, children aged 5 years and older can only receive the Pfizer vaccine, and no vaccine has been authorized for children under 5 years old. DHS policy encouraging discretion in deportations blocked by judge CDC director signs order ending COVID-19 testing requirement for international travelers An FDA advisory committee is set to meet Wednesday to weigh allowing Moderna’s vaccine for children between the ages of 6 months and 5 years old and Pfizer’s vaccine for children under 5. If the advisory committee recommends approval the vaccines for young children, approval from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and FDA authorization could follow soon after.
CDC tracking 2 more omicron variants: What to know about BA.4, BA.5 – On Tuesday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention added two new subvariants to its online tracker: BA.4 and BA.5. Both are subvariants of the omicron variant of COVID-19, which has been dominant in the U.S. since omicron overtook delta in last winter’s surge.BA.4 and BA.5 now make up 5.4% and 7.6% of new COVID cases, respectively, but their presence is larger out West and in the South. In parts of the country, the two subvariants combined already make up more than 20% of cases.The two new strains have already had a “big impact” on other parts of the world, and U.S. health officials need to closely monitor their impact on the virus’ spread over the next few weeks, said Dr. Tom Inglesby, director of The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. Here’s what we know so far.BA.4 and BA.5 were both first detected in South Africa early this year, according to theEuropean Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Since then, the strains have been detected in several other countries, and quickly became dominant in Portugal.In the U.S., the CDC tracks variants by regions. The region that currently has the highest proportion of BA.5 and BA.5 is Region 6, made up of Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas.The new subvariants have what scientists call a “growth advantage” over older types of omicron, which means they’ll grow more dominant by the day.“Given the data we’ve seen so far, I’d expect BA.4 and BA.5 would continue to replace BA.2.12.1,” said Inglesby.Are BA.4 and BA.5 more contagious than other types of omicron, like BA.1 and BA.2?Early evidence suggests BA.4 and BA.5 aren’t more contagious. However, it appears they are better at evading prior immunity. So if you already had omicron, can a new subvariant like BA.4 or BA.5 get you sick again?It’s possible, especially if you were sickened with omicron back in December 2021 or January 2022 — six months and several subvariants ago.Limited studies show BA.4 and BA.5 are likely to reinfect unvaccinated people whose only immunity from the virus comes from a prior infection with BA.1 (the first type of omicron).The same studies showed vaccinated people appeared to be better protected against reinfection with BA.4 and BA.5, however, “protection derived from currently available vaccines does wane over time against the Omicron variant,” writes the ECDC.A booster shot can help with that waning immunity, Inglesby said. Only one-third of Americans have received a booster shot against the virus.These studies also only looked at prior protection from BA.1, and right now the U.S. is in the middle of a surge of BA.2 — yet another omicron strain.“It’s possible BA.4 and BA.5 could create a surge on top of a surge, but it’s very difficult to know this because we don’t understand whether the collective immunity provided by BA.2.12.1 will protect against BA.4 and BA.5,” said Inglesby.“There is currently no indication of any change in severity for BA.4/BA.5 compared to previous Omicron lineages,” according to the ECDC. That doesn’t mean BA.4 and BA.5 should be ignored, the European health agency warns. Even if the variant is less deadly than a prior iteration like delta, omicron is so contagious that BA.4 and BA.5 still threaten to sicken millions and overwhelm health care systems.
COVID-19 cases are on the rise. Does it matter anymore? COVID-19 cases have risen in the U.S. to around 100,000 per day, and the real number could be as much as five times that, given many go unreported. But the situation is far different from the early months of the pandemic. There are now vaccines and booster shots, and new treatments that dramatically cut the risk of the virus. So how much do cases alone still matter? That question has prompted debate among experts, even as much of America goes on with their lives, despite the recent surge in cases. How much concern high case numbers alone should prompt is “the trillion-dollar question,” said Bob Wachter, chair of the department of medicine at the University of California-San Francisco. In the early days of the pandemic, dying of COVID-19 was a concern for him, but now, in an era of vaccines and treatments, “it doesn’t even cross my mind anymore,” he said. But he noted there are other risks, including long COVID-19: symptoms like fatigue or difficulty concentrating that can linger for months. “I think long COVID is pretty scary,” he said. While cases have risen to around 100,000 reported per day, deaths have stayed flat, a testament to the power of vaccines and booster shots in preventing severe illness, as well as the Pfizer treatment pills Paxlovid, which cut the risk of hospitalization or death by around 90 percent. Hospitalizations have risen, but only modestly, to around 27,000, one of the lowest points of the pandemic, according to a New York Times tracker. Cases have now been “partially decoupled” from causing hospitalizations and deaths, said Preeti Malani, an infectious disease expert at the University of Michigan, such that hospitals are no longer overwhelmed. “[Cases are] not without any consequence, but in terms of pressure on the health system, so far we’re not seeing that, which is really what drove all of this,” she said. The behavior of much of America reflects a lessened concern about the risk of being infected. Restaurants and bars are packed. Many people do not wear masks even on airplanes or on the subway. An Axios-Ipsos poll in May found just 36 percent of Americans said there was significant risk in returning to their “normal pre-coronavirus life.”
I am an epidemiologist with COVID-19 and I want to be counted -I am an epidemiologist who is home sick with COVID-19. Upon a positive self-test, I contacted my primary care physician to ask about treatment and report my case. As my symptoms worsened and more of my family members tested positive on a self-test, I turned to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to find out how to report our cases. CDC guidance suggests that I tell my health care provider that I have tested positive, but the health care system has no means of reporting self-tests for COVID-19 surveillance. I cannot report the cases of COVID-19 in my family and we, like so many Americans suffering during this current wave, will go uncounted. U.S. policy dictates that COVID-19 surveillance is solely reliant on laboratory testing. This surveillance system is no longer functioning as a tool to mitigate the spread of SARS-CoV2 with the ubiquitous availability and use of self-testing. With the availability of tests in pharmacies and every household able to obtain eight free tests, the surveillance system must adapt to the way most people are finding out whether or not they have contracted SARS-CoV2. The current surveillance system was designed for earlier waves of the pandemic when most cases were being detected by PCR in a clinical setting or a mass testing site. Monitoring laboratory tests alone does not give us an accurate and early detection of when cases are rising. Monitoring hospitalized cases will not allow us to plan for current wave leaving health care systems vulnerable to staff shortages. The more than 100, cases reported in the New York Times this week, vastly undercount the number of Americans who are sick with COVID-19, including me. If we, as a country, can develop the first and most effective vaccines to prevent COVID-19-related hospitalizations and death, why is there no political will to develop a surveillance system that can quickly and accurately record new cases of COVID-19? We are in the midst of another wave without an accurate count of how many people currently have COVID-19 and where cases are increasing.
Why boosted Americans seem to be getting more COVID-19 infections - As COVID-19 cases began to accelerate again this spring, federal data suggests the rate of breakthrough COVID infections in April was worse in boosted Americans compared to unboosted Americans — though rates of deaths and hospitalizations remained the lowest among the boosted.On the CDC's dashboard, which is updated monthly, the agency acknowledges several "factors likely affect crude case rates by vaccination and booster dose status, making interpretation of recent trends difficult." The CDC had rolled out the page several months ago, amid demands for better federal tracking of breakthrough cases. It has now grown to encompass data from immunization records and positive COVID-19 tests from 30 health departments across the country. For the week of April 23, it said the rate of COVID-19 infections among boosted Americans was 119 cases per 100,000 people. That was more than double the rate of infections in those who were vaccinated but unboosted, but a fraction of the levels among unvaccinated Americans.The new data do not mean booster shots are somehow increasing the risk. Ongoing studies continue to provide strong evidence of additional protection offered by booster shots against infection, severe disease, and death. Instead, the shift underscores the growing complexity of measuring vaccine effectiveness at this stage of the pandemic. It comes as officials are weighing key decisions on booster shots and pandemic surveillance, including whether to continue using the "crude case rates" at all.It also serves to illustrate a tricky reality facing health authorities amid the latest COVID-19 wave: even many boosted Americans are vulnerable to catching and spreading the virus, at a time when officials are wary of reimposing pandemic measures like mask requirements."During this Omicron wave, we're seeing an increased number of mild infections — at-home type of infections, the inconvenient, having a cold, being off work, not great but not the end of the world. And that's because these Omicron variants are able to break through antibody protection and cause these mild infections," John Moore, a professor of microbiology and immunology at Weill Cornell Medical College, told CBS News."So, one of the dynamics here is that people feel, after vaccination and boosting, that they're more protected than they actually are, so they increase their risks," he said. "That, I think, is the major driver of these statistics."
Why the Covid Vaccines Were Never Likely to Be Effective A Midwestern Doctor --I have successfully been fighting a drawn-out battle with multiple employers to avoid getting vaccinated (as have a few people I am very close to). Over the last few weeks, staffing shortages and customer absences have occurred at our employment sites due to everyone getting ill from COVID. This is particularly unusual given that this wave is happening during the summer, which is typically the time when respiratory viruses are at their lowest levels (and is most likely linked to seasonal variations in vitamin D levels and levels of outdoor physical activity).We have all noticed that most of the individuals who have gotten ill were vaccinated and had received their boosters. One of the predictions we regretfully made before the COVID vaccines entered the market was that the vaccination program would prevent the population from developing herd immunity to COVID-19 and thus indefinitely prolong the pandemic. A somewhat related parallel was the chicken pox vaccine (which had no real justification for being created) resulting in a permanent sustained increase of Shingles (a disease much worse than chickenpox) because the vaccinated populations lost their herd immunity to varicella zoster.For those who remember, at the start of the pandemic, everyone predicted the virus would follow three waves like other famous respiratory viruses such as the 1918 Influenza. Presently we are experiencing a sixth wave of COVID-19, and private documents leaked to me by a colleague who works for the WHO suggest the WHO is planning for this pandemic to continue for years (that is the most I can share in order to protect the identity of the leaker).Due to these events, I was requested to write an article on why the COVID vaccines were unlikely to be effective. With pharmaceutical products, I prefer to focus on their dangers rather than their ineffectiveness because being ineffective is typically less impactful than being toxic. This is a common thought process and has held true with discussions on the COVID vaccinations, where questions of their safety are discussed more often than questions of their efficacy. I believe shortcomings in their efficacy is critically important to discuss for two reasons:
- •The basis for the mandates is predicated upon the vaccines being effective, particularly in the prevention of infection, and most importantly transmission.
- • The refusal to consider other means for addressing the pandemic were based upon “increasing vaccination uptake“ being the best approach or addressing the pandemic.
Florida undercounted COVID-19 cases and deaths, audit says | Miami Herald - Florida’s COVID-19 data was so inaccurate, incomplete and delayed during the first months of the pandemic that government officials and the public may not have had necessary information to determine the effectiveness of the state’s COVID-19 precautions and the best plan to fight the virus, according to a state report released Monday.Covering the state’s pandemic response from March to October 2020, the yearlong analysis by the Florida Auditor General found missing case and death data, unreported ethnic and racial details, and incomplete contact tracing as the coronavirus spread across the state. In addition, the report concluded that state health officials did not perform routine checks on the data to ensure accuracy and did not follow up on discrepancies.Yet one top state health official, Department of Health spokesperson Jeremy Redfern, said the Auditor General’s report was flawed.Redfern said “some of the conclusions come from (the auditors’) misunderstanding of the purpose of different datasets,” adding that “the report does not address the huge advancements we’ve made in modernizing our reporting systems.”State auditors reviewed a sample of 2,600 tests taken at three state-run testing facilities and found that state-contracted laboratories failed to return results for nearly 60% of tests.Redfern said he could not say whether any of the missing results were positive, or whether potentially positive individuals had been notified of their results.Test results that were returned often failed to report basic demographic information. Nearly 60 percent of cases didn’t list the ethnicity of the individual and more than half didn’t list the race.Missing demographic data wasn’t unique to Florida, said Beth Blauer, executive director of the Centers for Civic Impact at Johns Hopkins University, but it is “the most critical piece of information that we lacked.”Johns Hopkins has tracked the coronavirus since the beginning, with its COVID-19 dashboard.
Coronavirus dashboard for June 6: transitioning ever so gradually into a less fatal endemic condition - The economic calendar is very light this week, with no significant news until Thursday, so let’s take this opportunity to update the situation with COVID-19.First, as of one week ago subvariant BA.2.12.1 continues to increase very slowly its share of overall cases, up to 59% nationwide: (Dan here…graphs can be enlarged at Bonddad blog…click the title) This subvariant makes up 78% of cases in NY and NJ, but only 38% in the Northwest. Meanwhile new subvariants BA.4/5 (still listed as BA.1.1.529 by the CDC) has risen to 6.1% of all cases, with a high of 12.4% in the northern Great Plains, and a low of 2.9% in NY and NJ: The BA.2.12.1 wave appears to have peaked 8 days ago, at 115,700 cases. It is presently down to 106,800. Meanwhile, deaths have *still* continued to decline from their Omicron peak of February, making a new 10 month low of 258 on June 3rd: Hospitalizations have continued to increase, up to just over 29,000, compared to their low of 10,264 on April 6: The trend of COVID not being nearly as lethal as it was originally (regardless of the causation) continues. Two really important trends stand out. The first is that we are now more than 2 full months after the post-Omicron trough, and yet deaths have continued to ever so slowly decline, as noted above making a new low just a few days ago. Typically, as is shown in the chart below, hospitalizations have made peaks and troughs simultaneously with or just slightly after cases, while deaths make equivalent peaks or troughs within 3-4 weeks later: So the fact that deaths are *still* declining more than 2 months after cases started to rise again speaks of a big change having happened. Secondly, when we look comparatively at hospitalizations and deaths vs. confirmed cases, we see that with each successive wave, there are fewer hospitalizations vs. confirmed cases and even fewer deaths. The below chart norms the “Alpha” wave of winter 2020-21 to 1.00 for all metrics and then compares successive peaks and troughs of subsequent waves with that respective peak and trough. Note that, with one exception (hospitalizations due to Delta at peak), hospitalizations rose less and fell more than cases did during each successive wave after Alpha. Deaths have declined comparatively even more: At the peak of Omicron in January, more than 3x as many people had confirmed cases as compared with Alpha, but there were only 1.3x as many hospitalizations and less than 0.8x as many deaths. As of the most recent post-Omicron trough, cases were still nearly 3x as high as the post-Alpha trough, but hospitalizations made a new all-time low of .77x compared with the post-Alpha trough, and deaths – still declining as of a few days ago – are less than 1.2x as many as the post-Alpha trough. Probably the recent relative decline in hospitalizations is due more than anything else to Paxlovid, which when taken promptly after the onset of symptoms, has been very effective. When it comes to deaths, the causation may be one or more of many things: an inherent weakening of the successive variants, resistance due to the prevalence of vaccinations and/or previous infections in the population, more effective treatments in the hospital, or simply that the most vulnerable population already died of the disease, so there are many few extremely susceptible individuals left – or something else, or any combination of the above. But, whatever the reason, COVID now has the approximate fatality rate as a typical bad flu season. I expect new variants and new waves of COVID to continue but appears more and more likely that it is ever so gradually transforming into an endemic condition.
New COVID-19 Variants BA.4 and BA.5 May Spur Surge - Key Symptoms - Omicron has been the dominant COVID-19 variant in the U.S. for months, but it’s spawned several subvariants that have caused spikes in cases. Now, there are two new subvariants infectious disease experts are keeping an eye on: BA.4 and BA.5.While data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) show that the Omicron subvariant BA.2.12.1 (Stealth Omicron) is the current dominant form of COVID-19 circulating in the U.S., data from viral surveillance organization Helix shows that BA.4 and BA.5 now represent up to 7% of new COVID-19 cases. And that’s a percentage that seems to be growing.Omicron subvariants are nothing new but, historically speaking, the rise of a new subvariant—let alone two subvariants—seems to correlate with an increase in COVID-19 cases.Here’s what you need to know about Omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA.5, including where the new subvariants first appeared, the symptoms, and how concerned you should be.As a whole, the symptoms of COVID-19 have stayed fairly consistent, and BA.4 and BA.5 don’t seem to be a big departure from other Omicron symptoms, says Thomas Russo, M.D., professor and chief of infectious disease at the University at Buffalo in New York. “They also seem to cause no more or less severe disease than earlier renditions of Omicron,” he adds. But a CDC report published in December found that patients with Omicron generally have these symptoms:
- Cough
- Fatigue
- Congestion
- Runny nose
It’s not entirely clear where BA.4 and BA.5 originated, but they’ve been detected at low levels in several countries in Southern Africa and Europe, according to the World Health Organization (WHO).WHO’s technical lead on COVID-19, Maria Van Kerkhove, said in May that the variants have been spotted in Botswana, South Africa, Germany, and Denmark, among other countries.: While BA.2 had certain genetic traits that made it harder to classify as Omicron on polymerase chain-reaction (PCR) tests, that doesn’t seem to be the case with BA.4 and BA.5.BA.4 and BA.5 have mutations that make them slightly different from BA.2.12.1. “There’s a pattern here,” Dr. Schaffner says. “We had Omicron and then there are Omicron mutations that were as contagious or even more contagious than Omicron. It’s a continuing story.”BA.4 and BA.5 “are more closely related to BA.2 and its subvariants than to BA.1,” Dr. Russo says. BA.4 and BA.5 have an amino acid change that was present in the Delta variant, Dr. Russo says. “Because of this, there’s some speculation that, if you were infected with Delta, it may help you out with BA.4 and BA.5,” he says.
Coronavirus variant update: and on to the BA.4/5 wave - Last week the CDC update showed variant “Ba.1.1.526” increasing quickly to 6.6% of all cases. Although they did not note it, I wrote that this was almost certainly Ba.4/5; they simply had not made the change yet. Well, this week they did. This morning’s “nowcast” update of variants shows Ba.1.1.526 having vanished, with Ba.4/5 having taken its place, and having doubled to 13% of all cases in the past week, even as Ba.2.12.1 slowly increased from 59% to 62%: Here’s the regional breakout: Ba.2.12.1 now makes up a little over 80% of cases in NY, NJ, and PR, while BA.4/5 combined make up 18% of all cases in the northern Rockies and 22% of the southern Plains, including Texas. It is unclear it this point how much, if at all, nationwide cases will increase. It depends on how much Ba.2.12.1 fades compared with how quickly Ba.4/5 take over. In South Africa, the Ba.4/5 wave rolled in and out very quickly earlier this spring:There the Ba.4/5 wave rolled in over about a 3 week period, and rolled out almost as quickly. Cases were only 1/3rd as many as the original Omircron wave at peak, while deaths were only 1/5th as high. Hopefully the same will happen here.
Will “Living With Covid”™ Even Be Possible? (Because What About the Brain Fog?) -- Fortunately, I don’t have long Covid. I don’t have it yet, I suppose. First, I’ll give a quick overview of what Long Covid is (not so easy to answer). I’ll look at the methodological problems in moving from symptoms to diagnosis, how long it lasts, and its prevalence. Next, I’ll zero in on one symptom universally acknowledged to be a symptom of Long Covid — “Brain Fog.” I’ll conclude by musing on one of the societal implications of large numbers of brain-damaged people in our population. Also, readers, if any of you have Long Covid, I and I am sure other readers would like to hear about it. Naturally, I welcome corrections and amplifications from our Brain Trust of Covid experts! The question “What Is Long Covid?” is not so easy to answer. (“Long” seems to be a median of 15 months. That’s long.) For one thing, we haven’t agreed on a name. From the CDC: People call post-COVID conditions by many names, including: long COVID, long-haul COVID, post-acute COVID-19, post-acute sequelae of SARS CoV-2 infection (PASC), long-term effects of COVID, and chronic COVID. (Long Covid, like Lyme Disease, has gathered around itself a community of activists and advocates; they seem to prefer “Long Covid,” so Long Covid it is.) Nor is getting a diagnosis so easy, for cultural reasons within the medical community. From theYale School of Medicine: Millions of those who have recovered from COVID-19 are now experiencing a long string of often debilitating symptoms that persist weeks, months, or even two years or more following the original infection. As these long-haulers, most of whom are women, seek answers for their devastating and mysterious condition, many are also facing dismissal by their health care providers. “It took a long time for medical researchers to recognize that this was a real disease,” But that doesn’t mean diagnosis would be easy, even for a non-dismissive physician. Politico: There is no test for long Covid, and the CDC and the medical community have no official definition. But health care workers across the country are diagnosing patients who have previously contracted Covid-19 based on a wide-ranging set of symptoms that often include fatigue, shortness of breath and brain fog. One approach to developing a symptoms checklist would be to ask Long Covid sufferers themselves. From the Lancet: The most frequent symptoms after month 6 were fatigue, post-exertional malaise, and cognitive dysfunction. Symptoms varied in their prevalence over time, and we identified three symptom clusters, each with a characteristic temporal profile. 85.9% of participants (95% CI, 84.8% to 87.0%) experienced relapses, primarily triggered by exercise, physical or mental activity, and stress. 86.7% (85.6% to 92.5%) of unrecovered respondents were experiencing fatigue at the time of survey, compared to 44.7% (38.5% to 50.5%) of recovered respondents. 1700 respondents (45.2%) required a reduced work schedule compared to pre-illness, and an additional 839 (22.3%) were not working at the time of survey due to illness. Cognitive dysfunction or memory issues were common across all age groups (~88%). Except for loss of smell and taste, the prevalence and trajectory of all symptoms were similar between groups with confirmed and suspected COVID-19. Despite the methodological issues, there have been several estimates of Long Covid prevalence; they are all two-digit percentages, so we can be confident that there is rather a lot of it about. In no particular order:
- JAMA: 10–30% (of people who caught Covid). If COVID-19 moves toward endemicity, then it should not disrupt everyday life. However, with ongoing transmission and with an estimated 10% to 30% of individuals experiencing long COVID symptoms after infection, this issue will require careful attention to further define the syndrome and possible intervention.
- CDC: 20%[1]. COVID-19 survivors have twice the risk for developing pulmonary embolism or respiratory conditions; one in five COVID-19 survivors aged 18–64 years and one in four survivors aged ≥65 years experienced at least one incident condition that might be attributable to previous COVID-19.
- WHO: 10%-20%.Most people who develop COVID-19 fully recover, but current evidence suggests approximately 10%-20% of people experience a variety of mid- and long-term effects after they recover from their initial illness. These mid- and long-term effects are collectively known as post COVID-19 condition or “long COVID.”
- Visser, et al. : 36-53% (aggregating several studies[2). Approximately of COVID-19 patients develop long-lasting, chronic complaints, a condition known as post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC) or ‘long COVID’ (1-4).
What Is “Brain Fog”? Let us now turn to one symptom prominently mentioned by Long Covid sufferers: “Brain Fog.” Let me begin with some tweets[3]:
- “Feel like death”:
- “Like I was operating in a language I didn’t speak. It went beyond forgetting words—it was like I’d never known them. I’d start sentences with no idea if or how I would finish them…”
- Yes, let's stop calling it "brain fog". Let's call it "post-covid cognitive impairment" or something else more accurate.
- And it is called brain fog to make it sound mild . It is brain damage or brain shrinkage.
Long covid could change the way we think about disability - The coronavirus pandemic has created a mass-disabling event that experts liken to HIV, polio or World War II, with millions suffering the long-term effects of infection with the virus. Many have found their lives dramatically changed and are grappling with what it means to be disabled. “It’s an entirely new identity,” Stanislawczyk said. The dramatic influx of newly disabled Americans changes the calculus for disability advocates, who have in recent years been uniting around a shared identity, pushing back against historic marginalization by affirming their self-worth and embracing their disabilities. “We’re taking a big-tent approach in the disability community,” said Rebecca Vallas, a senior fellow at the Century Foundation.The shift also underscores the challenges of creating common cause among people who have sometimes battled over limited resources. Those tensions resurfaced as some who share similar symptoms with covid long-haulers, including persistent fatigue, saw research dollars pour into long covid. “There were resentments,” said Diana Zicklin Berrent, who founded the long-hauler advocacy group Survivor Corps. “It was, ‘We’ve been out here screaming from the rooftops for decades, and you guys show up,’” said Berrent, who emphasizes the importance of working together. By joining forces, long haulers are forcing an existing conversation into the open. “We’re at this real confrontational moment of trying to educate as many people as possible about disability and structural inequalities and trying to make sure [long-haulers] get the resources they need right now,” said Mia Ives-Rublee, director of the Disability Justice Initiative at the Center for American Progress, who has osteogenesis imperfecta, or brittle bone disease. Ives-Rublee said that the movement already encompasses a huge variety of experiences and that somebody with dwarfism or spina bifida has an entirely different worldview from somebody with Lyme disease or long covid, which they did not experience from birth and which may not last a lifetime. People of color and those from marginalized communities bring their own unique perspectives, shaped by factors such as lack of access to quality health care. “Because of stigma and stereotype, things often go undiagnosed and untreated in the Black community,” said Andraéa LaVant, a wheelchair user who is Black and who was a producer of “Crip Camp,” responsible for the social-change message of the 2020 Netflix documentary that helped draw popular attention to disability rights. As many as 61 million, or 1 in 4, U.S. adults live with some form of disability, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Those numbers are being bolstered by between 7 million and 23 million long-haulers — including 1 million who can no longer work — according to recent government estimates. Think tanks and others expect the numbers to rise as covid settles in as an endemic disease.
115K New Covid Cases, 290 Deaths In U.S. - With 115,620 new cases reported on Thursday, the total number of people that have been infected with the coronavirus in the U.S. has risen to 85,329,812, as per Johns Hopkins University's latest data. 290 Covid deaths reported on the same day took the total U.S. Covid casualties to 1,010,805. More than 29,000 people are currently in American hospitals with the coronavirus, an increase of 11 percent over the last two weeks, New York Times' latest tally shows. More than 3,100 of these patients are admitted in intensive care units. 82,935,242 people have so far recovered from the disease, the Worldometer tally shows. 1,593 additional deaths were reported globally on Sunday, taking the total number of people who lost their lives due to the pandemic so far to 6,306,718 As per the latest data published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 221,601,089 Americans, or 66.7 percent of the eligible population, have been administered both doses of Covid vaccine so far. This includes 91.2 percent of people above 65.
Rising COVID Cases Could Put LA on Track to New Indoor Mask Mandates - - COVID-19 cases have been on the rise for months in greater Los Angeles, topping even last summer’s numbers, and there’s increasing worry that the county could be forced to re-implement mask mandates for indoor settings very soon. “We’re likely to move into the CDC high community level within a few weeks,” said public health director Dr. Barbara Ferrer last week, which would automatically trigger a public health order mandate that includes the return of masking requirements.While unpopular, Dr. Ferrer noted that the masking requirement could be necessary and helpful, citing the “increased stress on the healthcare system” that comes from rising cases and hospitalizations. Currently more than a dozen California counties are in the CDC’s high community level, with many clustered around the Bay Area; Oakland’s Alameda County has already re-implemented mask mandates. Full tracking of COVID-19 cases is also proving difficult, given the extensive use of at-home testing, where positive cases are often unreported. As a result, officials have been more likely to lean on hospitalization data when deciding the severity of a new COVID-19 surge.It remains unclear how individual restaurants and other communities not covered by the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health, such as Long Beach and Pasadena would react to a new mask mandate. Even the availability of vaccines, some restaurants pushed back forcefully on masking and other pandemic public health rules, while overall enforcement by the LADPH was at times a struggle given the size and scope of the area it reaches.There is time to see how it all shakes out, however. Early data from this week indicates that the statewide surge could be leveling off, if not decreasing outright. Several Southern California counties like Ventura, Orange, and Riverside, have begun to see week-over-week case rate deductions, reports the Los Angeles Times, and LA County’s numbers could also begin to recede before a potential mask mandate takes effect at the end of the month. “If case numbers stabilize or decrease in the next two weeks, the rate of increase in hospitalizations could be a lot lower,” Ferrer said. “We all have the power to take steps to reduce the amount of viral spread.”
Another summer COVID wave? Experts explain what's new this time around - Shortly before the start of the third summer of the pandemic, the USA is undergoing a sixth wave of COVID-19 cases. Compared with previous surges, this one looks more like a swell, health experts said.The rise in cases reported in the Northeast in recent weeks appears to have peaked, but upward trends continue in at least 21 states, according to a USA TODAY analysis of Johns Hopkins University data. Health experts said cases are likely higher because of underreported home tests. Although cases are rising, health experts said hospitalizations remain in check. There are about 350 deaths reported per day based on a seven-day average, which is more than a hundred deaths less than this time last year, according to Johns Hopkins University data. “We’re only about 10 to 15 cases higher than what we were a year ago as far as hospitalizations, and there are fewer patients requiring ICU care, which is encouraging,” said Dr. Adia Ross, chief medical officer of Duke Regional Hospital. “Even though cases are up, the hospitalizations are not as high as they have been.”Here's what else is different going into the third pandemic summer: If it feels like everyone in your circle is getting sick, you’re not wrong.COVID-19 is everywhere, and many who avoided the virus are getting it for the first time, said Dr. Stuart Ray, professor of medicine in the division of infectious diseases at Johns Hopkins University.After more than two years of preventive measures, pandemic fatigue has set in, health experts said, and more people attend social gatherings and travel without wearing a mask.“When you lower your guard at a time when the rates are high, you’re pretty likely to encounter someone who is positive,” Ray said. Public health officials have warned of high case rates for months, but experts said people's behavior is partly responsible for driving cases higher.“The reason why it doesn’t feel as urgent to people is because everyone knows someone who has had COVID or has had it themselves. And in people who are immunized, most cases are relatively mild,” said Dr. Paul Sax, professor of medicine at Harvard Medical School and clinical director of the division of infectious diseases at Brigham and Women’s Hospital.For every person who has a mild case of COVID-19, somewhere in the chain of transmission is someone who may have developed severe disease.“The problem is that there’s so much COVID out there that the people who are most vulnerable are still getting quite sick,” Sax said.
BA.4/5 Omicron subvariants produce a fifth wave of infection in South Africa despite 97 percent population immunity - Since the advent of the Omicron phase of the COVID pandemic, the new variants of SARS-CoV-2 have evolved into far more contagious versions without losing any of their intrinsic pathogenicity or virulence. They have also proven to evade immunity provided by the current mRNA COVID vaccines. Effectiveness against symptomatic infection even after a booster is proving short and fleeting. One of the leading examples of this process, South Africa, is currently riding out its fifth wave of COVID infection, with the new BA.4 and BA.5 variants dominant. A recent population-based COVID seroprevalence study (which reviews blood evidence from large populations rather than individuals), found that 97 percent of the population had significant antibodies either from vaccination or previous infection. But the presence of these antibodies was no barrier to the new infections. The implication here is that no combination of previous vaccination and infection will ever bring the pandemic to an end. “Herd immunity,” the claim that rising antibody levels will reduce the population vulnerable to SARS-CoV-2 to such a low level that the virus will die out for lack of hosts, is a myth. Against the claims by government officials and the corporate media that COVID-19 has become endemic, it would be more correct to say that the pandemic has become permanent. The evidence is mounting that SARS-CoV-2 is proving to be a very fit pathogen. It adapts to population immunity while maintaining its intrinsic virulence. The politically convenient construct of coronavirus evolving into ever-milder versions, peddled incessantly in the corporate press, has proven false. The researchers who investigated the estimate of prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in South Africa in March 2022 recently said in a press conference, “The infectious pressure of the Omicron variant was extraordinarily high to have produced such a significant bump in prevalence at this relatively mature stage of the epidemic. It is hardly possible to imagine much higher prevalence values.” South Africa was the hardest-hit country on the African continent, with reported COVID deaths exceeding 101,000. However, the World Health Organization’s recent study on excess deaths from January 2020 to December 2021 found excess deaths in South Africa exceeded 239,000. Since the new year, another 10,000 COVID deaths were registered, implying that the excess death toll is probably well over a quarter million for the nation with almost 60 million inhabitants. This puts South Africa’s COVID deaths per capita at one in every 240 people, ahead even the United States, which has a rate of one in every 330.
North Korea reports spike in COVID-19 cases - North Korea reported another spike in suspected COVID-19 cases, the highest in the last three days, state media reported Monday. According to the state emergency epidemic prevention headquarters, North Korea recorded 100,710 fever cases during the past 24 hours, bringing the suspected COVID-19 cases to over 3.54 million, Korean Central News Agency reported. So far 3.36 million patients have recovered, while 70 people lost their lives since late April. North Korea is among the few countries that did not report any cases since the pandemic began more than two years ago. Earlier this month, North Korea confirmed its first cases of COVID-19 in the country and imposed a nationwide lockdown. North Korea’s prevention strategy relied on a complete border shutdown since January 2020. The World Health Organization has no records of any COVID-19 vaccinations in the country of 25 million, with Pyongyang having turned down repeated offers of vaccine supplies from the international community.
COVID-19 cases explode in Brazilian schools --The beginning of the fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil has been characterized by a huge increase in cases among teachers, students and school staff. Refuting the claim of the Brazilian and world ruling class that schools are safe, in recent weeks numerous schools across the country have suspended in-person classes and some cities have again mandated the wearing of masks in classrooms. In May, COVID-19 infections again rose in Brazil. On Saturday, the moving average reached 29,824 daily cases, a 104 percent increase from two weeks ago, and 84 deaths were recorded. These numbers, however, are huge underestimates. In addition to massive under-reporting, 15 of Brazil’s 27 states have not reported pandemic data due to alleged technical problems. “We have never sailed so in the dark,” declared infectologist Fernando Spilki to the daily Folha de S. Paulo. “Very little is tested and registered. Besides, with the [recent] possibility of self-testing... several cases end up not being registered,” he explained. In what he called a “recipe for disaster,” Brazilian neuroscientist Miguel Nicolelis warned on Twitter on May 26: “This is one of the riskiest moments of the pandemic, basically because all measures to contain the transmission of the virus have been eliminated, the window of immunity created by vaccines is closing, new variants are circulating without barriers.” In fact, today in Brazil the most infectious and vaccine-resistant BA.2 Omicron subvariant is dominant, but cases of the BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants, responsible for the recent increase in cases in South Africa and Europe, have also been identified. Although it remains mandatory in public transportation and hospitals, the mandate for the use of masks in classrooms and other closed places was abolished in early April in all Brazilian states. Vaccination is stagnant, with 77.4 percent of Brazilians completely immunized and only 44 percent of the population with the booster shot. This situation has led the transmission rate to grow since mid-April, reaching 1.48 on June 1. It is under these conditions that COVID-19 is spreading like wildfire in Brazilian schools. Far from a surprise, outbreaks in schools are yet another clear confirmation of their role in the spread of COVID-19. And, as has happened before, keeping schools open is driving this fourth wave of the pandemic in Brazil. However, even with the prospect of a worsening pandemic in the coming weeks, state and municipal governments in Brazil are doing everything they can to make the population “learn to live” with COVID-19. Few cities have restored the mandate for the use of masks in classrooms, even though several scientific studies point out that a simple measure like this can contain up to 80 percent of the transmission of the virus. This is particularly true in the state of São Paulo, Brazil’s wealthiest state and financial center. According to the state government’s own data, there has been a 370 percent increase in COVID-19 cases in public state schools since the beginning of May. Even though hospitalizations are expected to triple this week, after a 120 percent increase over the past month, on Wednesday the state’s so-called Scientific Committee only recommended the wearing of masks in classroom and other closed places.
Covid infections on the rise in England and Northern Ireland -The UK may be entering its third wave of coronavirus this year, researchers warn, as official figures show infections are on the rise again in England andNorthern Ireland.The Office for National Statistics said its latest analysis of swabs from households across Britain revealed a mixed picture with a “small increase” in positive tests in England and Northern Ireland, while the trend in Wales and Scotland remained unclear.The ONS data, which give the most reliable picture of the state of the UK outbreak, suggest that the steady fall in infections over recent months may have gone into reverse as cases are driven up by the more transmissible BA.4 and BA.5 Omicron variants.According to the ONS survey, an estimated 797,500 people in England and 27,700 in Northern Ireland would have tested positive for Covid in the week ending 2 June, up from 784,100 and 24,300 respectively in the week before.The emergence in November last year of the first Omicron variant, BA.1, sparked waves of Covid around the world. This spring, a second UK wave was fuelled by a more contagious relative known as BA.2. While BA.2 is now in decline, it has two more transmissible descendants, namely BA.4 and BA.5, both of which are on the rise.Public health officials are particularly concerned about BA.5 which is spreading faster than BA.4 and responsible for fresh spikes in cases in Europe,particularly in Portugal and Germany. At the end of May, BA.5 made up nearly 14% of Covid virus genomes analysed in England, nearly double that for BA.4.The latest ONS report shows that the percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus increased in London, the south-east and the north-wwest, but fell in the east Midlands, and Yorkshire and the Humber. While infections had been falling in all age groups, rates have now either levelled out or started to rise, with clear increases evident in 35- to 49-year-olds.
COVID-19: Why are cases rising - and should we be worried? | UK News | Sky News - For many of us it was feeling like this summer might be the one where we could forget about COVID - at least for a while. And today's uptick in infection rates certainly isn't a reason to put down the ice cream and start panicking.But it is, perhaps, a reminder of what the experts told us all along: that COVID would continue to evolve and while the worst of it is most likely to be over, it will never be gone for good.The latest rise in cases in today's ONS figures is very modest compared to the surges in the Delta and Omicron waves. But like those, it could be partly driven by new sub-variants of the virus.Most cases are now caused by the BA.2 variant of Omicron. But the ONS survey data also points to two closely related viruses, BA.4 and BA.5 rising in number as BA.2 infections fall.There's some evidence, like previous variants, that minor genetic changes in these viruses allow them to avoid some of our immunity to COVID - giving them a modest advantage.There's a very slight upward trend in hospital admissions too. But no evidence of an increase in severe illness with COVID. It's probable that the Jubilee weekend will give case numbers a boost when data including the bank holiday is published.Not just visitors piling into the capital to watch celebrations, but also the thousands mixing closer to home at street parties and services.But it is very much too early to forecast a significant increase in cases, let alone hospitalisations and deaths.Levels of immunity in the population have continued to increase as Omicron has continued to circulate without masks or social distancing.And at least 80% of those eligible for booster vaccines this spring have taken up the offer.However, slightly fewer have taken up a spring booster dose than came forward for second doses and previous boosters.
Covid cases rise again, nearly 800 fresh infections on Saturday - Covid cases are on the rise again in Delhi, with 795 fresh infections reported on Saturday — the highest in almost a month — as per the daily health bulletin. Delhi’s positivity rate stood at 4.11%, which is the highest in 32 days. Hospitalisations are also on the rise, with the numbers reaching 92 as compared to a low of 61 at the end of May.Cases, which increased slightly in April soon after the mask mandates were done away with, never went down to the levels seen after the third wave in January. The numbers remained stagnant between 300 to 400 and the positivity rate between 1.7% and 2.7% for around two weeks before beginning to rise again. Not only have the fresh cases gone up, but the number of active cases or those with a current infection has also shot past the 2,000 mark, with 2,247 active cases Saturday as per the bulletin. More than 2,000 active cases were last recorded on May 21 as the small spike in cases in April was waning.On the increase in hospitalisations, doctors, however, say it is high among patients with other conditions who also happen to test positive, similar to the third wave. Most are reporting to hospitals with fever, cough, and cold.“The disease is now slowly becoming like the seasonal flu. We see it every year and most recover after fever, cough, and cold. Complications are seen, but in those who are very old or have major co-morbidities. With almost everyone getting exposed to the infection and vaccinated, cases are unlikely to rise as sharply as the January wave. Unless there is a change in the virus, which is unlikely,” said Dr Atul Gogia, senior consultant of medicine at Sir Ganga Ram hospital.
Is rising COVID-19 cases early signs of fresh wave? What health experts have to say -- Amid a sudden rise in the number of COVID-19 cases in the country, health experts on Saturday sought to allay fears of a fresh wave, saying that no new variant of concern has been found.While saying that the surge in COVID-19 cases over the last few days should not be a cause for panic, they pointed out at people’s laxity towards COVID- appropriate behaviour and their reluctance to take the booster dose.The experts warned people against letting their guard down and called for “aggressive testing” to help detect any emerging variant."First of all, we have not found any new variant of concern. India now has BA.4 and BA.5, in addition to BA.2, which have a slightly higher transmissibility as compared to the other Omicron sub-lineages," Dr NK Arora, chairman of the National Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (NTAGI), told PTI.He said that there has been a surge in COVID infections, owing to increased mobility due to the summer holidays, full-fledged opening up of economic activities, and relaxation in travel curbs both nationally and internationally."There is another dimension to it and that is, the infection is limited to metros and big cities with a high population density. The important thing is that most of the people who are getting infected these days are immunised and have common cold and a mild influenza-like illness."There is no need to panic, but one must remember that COVID is very much around us and we need to adhere to COVID-appropriate behaviour and particularly, avoid crowded places and also make masks an integral part of our day-to-day living," Dr Arora said.The top 10 states and Union territories of concern in terms of an increasing positivity rate are Kerala, Mizoram, Goa, Maharashtra, Delhi, Haryana, Sikkim, Chandigarh, Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh. Six states and Union territories including Kerala, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Delhi, Haryana and Tamil Nadu have more than 1,000 active COVID cases.Meanwhile, AIIMS Director Dr Randeep Guleria said the COVID cases are rising but there is no associated increase in hospitalisation or deaths.He also said that the surge is limited to certain geographical areas and is not a cause of worry at the moment. “But we should not let our guard down and must focus on aggressive testing so as not to miss out on any emerging variant,” he added."Also, complacency has set in among people towards following COVID-appropriate behaviour. In addition, some people who are due for a precaution dose are not taking it, which possibly has increased the pool of susceptible population," Guleria said.
WHO report on COVID-19 origin suggests more investigation into lab leak - The possibility that the coronavirus could have escaped from a lab warrants “further investigations,” a group of World Health Organization (WHO) scientists said in a report released Thursday. However, the preliminary report from the scientists investigating the origins of the coronavirus and other novel pathogens noted that the group had not been provided any new data to evaluate the “laboratory leak” possibility as a pathway of SARS-CoV-2 into the human population. The report said all currently available data suggest SARS-CoV-2 originated in animals, with the closest genetically related viruses identified in bats in China in 2013 and Laos in 2020. However, researchers said the missing data means they were not able to identify the animal that infected humans nor the location where the infection could have occurred. The scientists said “it remains important to consider all reasonable scientific data” to evaluate the possibility of a laboratory incident. The inconclusive nature of the report is likely to further inflame the debate about where the coronavirus started and how it first infected humans. “Understanding the origins of the virus is very important scientifically, to prevent future epidemics and pandemics. But morally, we also owe it to all those who have suffered and died, and their families,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said Thursday. “All hypotheses must remain on the table until we have evidence that enables us to rule certain hypotheses in or out,” Tedros said. Tedros urged all countries, particularly China, to be transparent and cooperative by sharing data and samples without governmental interference.
CDC raises monkeypox alert to level 2, recommends masks during travel -The CDC raised its alert level for monkeypox to level 2 on Monday, recommending that travelers wear masks, among other health measures. While not on the level of COVID-19, monkeypox has spread across the globe out of Africa since March. Monkeypox symptoms begin as relatively flu-like but soon expand to the swelling of lymph nodes and a rash across the body and face. Ultimately, painful lesions form on rash areas, leaving severe scarring. "Some cases were reported among men who have sex with men. Some cases were also reported in people who live in the same household as an infected person," it added. \ As of June 3, there have been 21 recorded monkeypox cases in the U.S. connected to the current outbreak, according to the CDC. \ The disease may have gone undetected in Western countries under the guise of an STI, according to Dr. Amesh Adalja. There are a number of STIs that have similar symptoms to monkeypox. "What's likely happened is an endemic infectious disease from Africa found its way into a social and sexual network and then was greatly aided by major amplification events, like raves in Belgium, to disseminate around the world," Adalja told NBC News.
The CDC is sending monkeypox vaccines to people at high risk in a race to prevent the spread --The Biden administration has distributed 1,200 monkeypox vaccine doses for people who have had high-risk exposures to the virus, part of a nationwide public health response to stamp out the disease before it causes a major outbreak. U.S. health officials, worried the virus is spreading faster than previously thought, have said the global outbreak of monkeypox is the largest ever. The World Health Organization said Wednesday that there are now more than 550 cases across 30 countries. In the U.S., at least 20 confirmed or suspected cases have been reported in 11 states, including California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Massachusetts, New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Utah and Washington state, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. "A monkeypox outbreak of this scale and scope across the world, it has not been seen before," Dr. Raj Panjabi, who leads the White House pandemic preparedness office, told reporters on a call last week. However, CDC officials have sought to reassure the public that the arrival of monkeypox in the U.S. is vastly different from Covid-19, which blindsided the country two years ago. Scientists knew little about Covid when it first emerged and the U.S. had no vaccines or antiviral treatments to fight the virus in 2020. Monkeypox, on the other hand, has been known to scientists since 1958 when the virus was first identified during outbreaks among monkeys kept for research purposes, and its transmission in humans has been studied since the 1970s. Global health authorities also have extensive experience successfully fighting smallpox, which the World Health Organization declared eradicated in 1980 after a successful global vaccination effort. Monkeypox is in the same virus family as smallpox though it is much milder. CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky told reporters last week that the U.S. has been preparing for an outbreak from a virus like monkeypox for decades. The U.S. has millions of vaccine doses in the strategic national stockpile that protect against monkeypox and smallpox as well as antiviral pills to treat the diseases. Dawn O'Connell, who leads the Health and Human Services office responsible for the strategic national stockpile, said on Friday that the U.S. has enough vaccine on hand to manage the current monkeypox outbreak. However, O'Connell would not disclose how many shots the U.S. has at the ready. The U.S. has two vaccines but the preferred option is in shorter supply. Jynneos is a two-dose vaccine approved by the FDA in 2019 to prevent monkeypox in people ages 18 and older. The CDC generally recommends Jynneos over the other option, ACAM2000, which is an older generation smallpox vaccine that can have serious side effects. Last week, CDC official Dr. Jennifer McQuiston said the U.S. has 1,000 doses of Jynneos available. However, the Danish biotech company that makes the shots, Bavarian Nordic, said the U.S. actually has a supply of more than 1 million Jynneos frozen doses stored in the U.S. and Denmark under an order placed in April 2020. The shots have a shelf life of three years. The U.S. has ordered close to 30 million Jynneos doses since 2010 but 28 million of them expired, the spokesperson said. Bavarian Nordic plans to increase production this summer and has the capacity to produce 30 million shots a year, the spokesperson said.
Ring vaccination might help curtail monkeypox outbreaks - Harvard Health - By now, you’ve probably heard that there is a monkeypox outbreak traveling around the globe. Cases havespread far and wide, including in the US, Canada, Europe, and Australia. It’s the largest outbreak ever recorded outside of western and central Africa, where monkeypox is common.But controlling this outbreak demands preventive measures, such as avoiding close contact with people who have the illness and vaccination. One method of vaccination, called ring vaccination, has worked well in the past to contain smallpox and Ebola outbreaks. It may be effective for monkeypox as well. Monkeypox differs from the virus that causes COVID-19. People with monkeypox usually have symptoms when they’re contagious, and the number of infected persons is usually limited.This means it’s possible to vaccinate a "ring" of people around them rather than vaccinating an entire population. This selective approach is called ring vaccination.Ring vaccination has been used successfully to contain smallpox and Ebola outbreaks. It may come in handy for monkeypox as well. Here’s how it works:
- As soon as a case of monkeypox is suspected or confirmed, the patient and their close contacts are interviewed to identify possible exposures.
- Vaccination is offered to all close contacts.
- Vaccination is also offered to those who had close contact with the infected person’s contacts.
Ideally, people should be vaccinated within four days of exposure.This approach requires widespread awareness of monkeypox, rapid isolation of suspected cases, and an efficient contact tracing system. And of course, vaccines must be available whenever and wherever new cases arise. According to the CDC, the smallpox vaccine is 85% effective against monkeypox.
UK: 77 new monkeypox cases, biggest outbreak outside Africa (AP) — British health officials reported 77 more monkeypox cases on Monday, raising the total to more than 300 across the country. To date, the U.K. has the biggest identified outbreak of the disease beyond Africa, with the vast majority of infections in gay and bisexual men. Health officials warn that anyone, regardless of their sexual orientation, is potentially at risk of catching monkeypox if they are in close contact with a patient, their clothing or their bed sheets.On Sunday, the World Health Organization said more than two dozen countries that haven’t previously identified monkeypox cases reported 780 cases, a more than 200% jump in cases since late May. No monkeypox deaths outside of Africa have yet been identified. The U.N. health agency said most cases in Europe and elsewhere have been spotted in sexual health clinics and “have involved mainly, but not exclusively, men who have sex with men.”
DC reports 1st orthopox, potential monkeypox case - D.C. Health has reported the first positive orthopox case in a resident who recently traveled to Europe, and it sent samples to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to test for monkeypox, the agency said Sunday.The patient is isolating and doesn't pose a risk to the public, and the agency is monitoring close contacts, it said in a release.The orthopox family of viruses includes monkeypox, D.C. Health said.There are currently 25 total confirmed monkeypox/orthopoxvirus cases in the U.S. as of Friday, according to the latest CDC data.The first case of monkeypox in the U.S. this year was reported in Massachusetts.Monkeypox is a cousin of the smallpox virus and causes similar, but milder, symptoms in humans, according to the CDC.
Monkeypox Outbreak Updates: At Least 25 Cases Confirmed in US - Monkeypox viral infections continue to be reported around the world, and cases have more than doubled in the US. In the last week, 25 monkeypox cases were reported across 12 states. There are over 900 cases worldwide in approximately 30 countries. These cases are atypical because they are being reported in countries, such as the US, where monkeypox is not endemic. Monkeypox is a zoonotic virus, meaning it is transmitted from animals (such as monkeys) to humans. There are 2 main strains of monkeypox, the Congo Basin and West African. The latter is less deadly and responsible for the current outbreaks. During this unusual string of outbreaks, there have been no reported deaths among infected persons in the US or around the world. All patients are either in recovery or have recovered already. Cases have been reported and confirmed in California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois, Massachusetts, New York, Pennsylvania, Utah, Virginia, Washington state, and Washington, DC. Most of the patients had a history of international travel in the 21 days prior to symptom onset, meaning they likely contracted it abroad. The others are suspected to have had contact with infected persons. So far, these monkeypox outbreaks in the US and around the world are being primarily reported among men who have sex with men. Though health agencies have emphasized that all people are susceptible to the person-to-person spread of monkeypox, LGBTQ+ communities are advised to take extra caution to avoid viral transmission from close contacts.
Feds buy 500,000 more vaccine doses to fight monkeypox ---Health officials announced on Friday that the White House has ordered 500,000 more doses of a vaccine believed to be effective against monkeypox. Dawn O’Connell, assistant secretary for preparedness and response for the Department of Health and Human Services, announced during a press briefing that the U.S. had ordered half a million liquid, frozen doses of the Jynneos smallpox vaccine. While there are currently no vaccines or antivirals specifically designed to treat monkeypox, the Food and Drug Administration has authorized Jynneos for use in adults to prevent monkeypox infections. The drug is created by Bavarian Nordic, a biotech company headquartered in Denmark. The order, announced on Friday, is expected to be delivered later this year. O’Connell also stated that the U.S.’s Strategic National Stockpile (SNS) currently has 72,000 doses of Jynneos in its immediate inventory, and an additional 300,000 are expected to arrive in the next few weeks. Apart from Jynneos, the SNS also has more than 100 million doses of the ACAM2000 smallpox vaccine, though health officials noted that there has been a preference for Jynneos. ACAM2000 is an older vaccine and comes with some side effects that may make providers concerned, including muscle pain, rashes and nausea.
Will monkeypox spread as fast as COVID? - – As health departments around the country start to report cases of monkeypox, some are getting flashbacks to early 2020 before the coronavirus spread like wildfire. With more than 30 cases across 13 states, will the virus start a new pandemic? Key differences between the viruses make that unlikely. In a media briefing Tuesday, Dr. Tom Inglesby, director of The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, outlined some of those differences. While monkeypox can spread through respiratory droplets, Inglesby explained, evidence suggests spread is happening through close contact. “It’s not spreading across a room or greater distance,” Inglesby said. In addition to respiratory droplets at close range, the virus can also be spread through bodily contact, or through contact with someone’s bedding or clothing, he said. Monkeypox does pose a serious danger to those who get it. It results in death for as many as 10% of people who contract it in Africa, where the virus is endemic, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. However, the way it spreads can make it easier to control outbreaks. “It is not acting in a way like a disease that spreads through respiratory droplets or airborne dominantly does,” Inglesby said. “So it’s not acting like influenza or covid or chickenpox or measles – things that spread quickly in an unvaccinated community. It is acting more like a disease that is spreading by close contact.” We also have a vaccine that works against the virus, the smallpox vaccine. “If we all react quickly and we all work together, we will be able to stop this,” said the World Health Organization’s Dr. Rosamund Lewis. “We will be able to stop it before it reaches more vulnerable people and before it establishes itself as a replacement for smallpox.”
We Should Have Seen Monkeypox Coming - Nearly five years before an unusual cluster of monkeypox cases in the U.K.alarmed the world, doctors were dealing with an unusual cluster of monkeypox in another unexpected country: Nigeria. The virus is endemic to Central Africa, but Nigeria, far to the west, had not recorded a case of monkeypox since 1978. When an 11-year-old boy showed up with skin lesions in September 2017, doctors first suspected chickenpox. But no, tests pointed to the much more unusual monkeypox. From 2017 to 2022, Nigeria then found more than 500 confirmed monkeypox cases. Quite suddenly, it seemed, the virus had begun spreading somewhere new.In Nigeria, too, doctors first picked up hints of a new pattern that would be repeated around the world. Many of the patients were men, and many had genital lesions, suggesting transmission via sexual contact. Four years later,many of the cases in Europe and the Americas are also in men and also characterized by genital lesions. “It looks like déjà vu to me,” says Dimie Ogoina, a doctor at Niger Delta University Teaching Hospital, which treated the first and many subsequent cases of monkeypox in Nigeria in 2017. The virus was known to spread through droplets and any kind of physical contact with infectious sores and scabs—but sex, specifically, had never been high on the list of transmission risks. (Past cases were usually linked to contact with wild animals or household contact.) The unusual pattern and unusual size of the Nigeria outbreak should have been a signal that something had changed for monkeypox. But the world ignored it until too late, and a global outbreak is now well under way. “What happened in 2017 in Nigeria was absolutely a warning sign,” says Anne Rimoin, an epidemiologist at UCLA who has studied the virus. But as long as monkeypox stayed in Africa, the disease got little attention. The U.K., Singapore, and Israel did pick up the occasional case linked to travel to Nigeria in 2018 and 2019. “It’s possible there were many importations that were missed,” Rimoin says, which seeded local transmission that’s finally being detected now. The exact path the virus took around the world is unknown, but the genomes of viruses sequenced so far from Europe and the U.S. are most closely related to those linked to the Nigeria outbreak.
Guinea reports first H5N1 bird flu outbreaks on farms –(Reuters) – Guinea has reported six outbreaks of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza, commonly called bird flu, on farms in the western part of the country, the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) said on Tuesday. The outbreaks were the first ones reported in Guinea and were mostly found at laying hen farms, the Paris-based body said, quoting information from Guinean health authorities. A total of 120,478 poultry died or were killed because of the outbreaks, they said.
US bird flu outbreak: millions of birds culled in ‘most inhumane way available’ The US poultry industry has increasingly switched to “the most inhumane method available” to cull tens of millions of birds during the latest outbreak of avian influenza, according to government data.Outbreaks of the disease, also known as bird flu, have wreaked havoc across Europe and the US this year, with 38 million birds killed in the US so far. But how these birds are killed has generated controversy, with veterinarians and animal welfare campaigners urging an end to the use of the ventilation shutdown method, which kills animals by sealing off the airflow to the poultry sheds and increasing temperatures to lethal levels.Workers have described the method as like “roasting animals alive”. European officials have said it should not be used in the European Union.In the US, however, the American Veterinary Medical Association (AVMA) lists ventilation shutdown with supplemental heat as “permitted in constrained circumstances” for “depopulation”.A new analysis has found that it has now become the main method for killing birds, used in nearly three-quarters of culls.The analysis of US Department of Agriculture (USDA) data by the Animal Welfare Institute found 73% of culls in the US in February and March (the most recent period for which data is available) involved the use of ventilation shutdown.This represents a dramatic shift from the last bird flu epidemic, in 2015, which resulted in the killing of 50 million farmed birds in the US. During that outbreak, the animals were predominantly killed by carbon dioxide poisoning or smothered in a blanket of firefighting foam.
Scientists accidentally create super-vicious HAMSTERS in a lab after gene editing experiment goes wrong and makes aggressive rodents chase, bite and pin each other down -- Scientists inadvertently bred a horde of unusually aggressive hamsters after a gene editing experiment to 'reduce aggression' went wrong. Researchers at Georgia State University produced new rodents without hormone vasopressin in an effort to raise 'social communication' between the rodents. Yet the chemical change turned the Syrian hamsters wild, prompting fights inside cages. The ultra-vicious hamsters were pictured pinning, biting and chasing each other. Hamsters are typically social animals with low levels of aggression and an ease of cooperation. Lead researcher Professor Elliott Albers said: 'We anticipated [...] we would reduce both aggression and social communication — but the opposite happened.' They key hormone Avpr1a was thought to regulate friendship and bonding, with its removal expected to increase harmony between the animals. Instead, the lab experiment recorded 'high levels of aggression towards other same-sex individuals'. Professor Albers said: 'We were really surprised at the results.' It was thought that vasopressin affects the social behaviours of hamsters including aggression and communication. To investigate further, scientists deactivated Avpr1a, removing a receptor that interacts with vasopressin in key regions of the brain. Now immune to the hormone, it was thought the rodents would become friendlier. The results were anything but, with a heightened frequency of fighting, biting, chasing and pinning down among the hamsters in their cages. The study's striking conclusions challenge scientists' understanding of the relationship between biology and behaviour. The professor added: We don’t understand this system as well as we thought we did. 'The counterintuitive findings tell us we need to start thinking about the actions of these receptors across entire circuits of the brain, not just in specific brain regions.
California court rules that bees are a type of fish in order to protect them under the state’s endangered species act - A trio of judges in California said on Tuesday that bees could be legally classified as a type of fish as part of a ruling that gave added conservation protections to the endangered species."The issue presented here is whether the bumble bee, a terrestrial invertebrate, falls within the definition of fish," the judges wrote in their ruling. And, they concluded, it does.Formerly, the problem for bee lovers — and lovers of all Californian terrestrial invertebrates — was down to the way protected animals had been classified in the state's laws.While four bee species were classified as endangered in 2018, land invertebrates are not explicitly protected under the California Endangered Species Act, which protects endangered "native species or subspecies of a bird, mammal, fish, amphibian, reptile, or plant."But the law's fish and game code, which establishes the basis on which plants and animals are protected, defines "fish" as "a wild fish, mollusk, crustacean, invertebrate, amphibian, or part, spawn, or ovum of any of those animals." Given that many of the above marine creatures aren't even fish, California has been arguing ever since about whether "invertebrates" here should apply to bees.The appeal overturns a ruling from November 2020 that was backed by major agricultural groups, Law & Crime reported. There, the judge ruled that "invertebrates" in the fish and game code's "fish" definition applied only to marine invertebrates, like anemones or sea urchins. But on Tuesday's appeal, the judges ruled they were obliged to "liberally" interpret the Endangered Species Act's terms to make sure it could be effective.
‘Delikado’: Saving Palawan from the Chainsaws – Palawan island in the Philippines has emerged as a battlefield for a tiny network of environmental crusaders and vigilantes who are trying to protect its spectacular natural resources, powder-white beaches, and lush forests, which have made it one of Asia’s hot new tourist destinations. They are also the subject of a new feature-length documentary “Delikado” from director Karl Malakunas who pressed ahead with its production after one of the vigilantes was shot dead in 2011. “Delikado” follows Bobby, Tata, and Nieves as they risk their lives in trying to stop politicians and businessmen from destroying what is perhaps the Philippines’ last ecological frontier. The documentary also exposes how outgoing President Rodrigo Duterte’s notorious “war on drugs” has been used as a political tool to control the levers of economic and political power while claiming thousands of lives. It is also the subject of an investigation by the International Criminal Court, which has said the drug war might constitute a crime against humanity. Enjoying this article? Click here to subscribe for full access. Just $5 a month. Meanwhile, the clearing of rainforests to make way for large-scale tourism continues, an issue that has afflicted countries across Southeast Asia and further afield. Malakunas spoke with The Diplomat’s Luke Hunt about the making of “Delikado” and its global release, with initial screenings in the United States and Australia to follow.
NOAA forecasts average-size Gulf of Mexico summer 'dead zone' -A team of scientists including a University of Michigan aquatic ecologist is forecasting a summer "dead zone" in the Gulf of Mexico of 5,364 square miles, about average for the 35-year history of the measurements.The forecast is lower than last year's measured size and slightly lower than the five-year average measured size of 5,380 square miles. The 2022 Gulf of Mexico hypoxia forecast was released today by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. "The action plan to reduce the size of the Gulf of Mexico dead zone was established over 20 years ago, yet this year's forecast is comparable to the 35-year average zone," said U-M's Don Scavia, who leads one of several research teams partnering with the federal government on the annual forecasts. "This is not surprising because nutrient loads have not changed since 1990, proof that current efforts to reduce loads to the Gulf have not been effective. Clearly, the federal and state agencies and Congress continue to prioritize industrial agriculture over water quality," said Scavia, professor emeritus at the School for Environment and Sustainability. The Gulf of Mexico dead zone, or hypoxic area, is an area of low oxygen that can kill fish and other marine life. It occurs every summer and is primarily a result of excess nutrient pollution from human activities in cities and farm areas throughout the Mississippi River watershed. When the excess nutrients reach the Gulf, they stimulate an overgrowth of algae, which eventually die and decompose, depleting oxygen as they sink to the bottom. The resulting low oxygen levels near the bottom of the Gulf cannot support most marine life. Fish, shrimp and crabs often swim out of the area, but animals that are unable to swim or move away can be stressed or killed. "The Gulf dead zone remains the largest hypoxic zone in United States waters, and we want to gain insights into its causes and impacts," said Nicole LeBoeuf, assistant administrator of NOAA's National Ocean Service. "The modeling we do here is an important part of NOAA's goal to protect, restore and manage the use of coastal and ocean resources through ecosystem-based management."
Rapid spread of deadly disease killing up to 94 percent of Caribbean coral species -A new coral disease is quickly circulating in the Caribbean, killing as much as 94 percent of certain types of coral species in the region, according to a study published Thursday in the journal Communications Biology. Researchers found that an outbreak of stony coral tissue loss disease (SCTLD) that was first reported in Florida in 2014 is likely to become “the most lethal disturbance ever recorded in the Caribbean.” The outbreak reached the northern Mesoamerican Reef, the largest barrier reef in the Western Hemisphere, off the coast of Mexico, Guatemala, Belize and Honduras by summer 2018 and spread across the entire roughly 450-kilometer reef system within a few months, according to the study. Out of more than 29,000 coral colonies the researchers surveyed between July 2018 and January 2020, 17 percent showed signs of having died recently by the time of survey. An additional 10 percent had been affected by the disease. The researchers said the area is a well-known “hot spot” for diseases, many of which have significantly reduced coral populations in the past. One outbreak of another disease in the late 1970s led to the loss of almost 80 percent of two major reef-building corals, reducing the functionality of the reef. The researchers also said that human-induced factors like rising sea levels and reduced water quality are increasing the risk of diseases that disrupt an ecosystem’s stability. They said environmental conditions, such as nutrient concentrations, likely influence the prevalence of SCTLD, though higher water temperatures appear not to have a direct effect.
Biden to update 'sacred' EJ order that never really worked - The White House is updating a “sacred text” on environmental justice. The executive order, signed by President Bill Clinton in 1994, was the first government wide acknowledgment that environmental and public health burdens fall disproportionately on poor and minority communities. It was also the first time the executive branch accepted that it has the legal authority — and obligation — to blunt those impacts wherever it can. Now Executive Order 12898 is being carefully reviewed by the White House, with input from outside experts, an administration official told reporters on a recent call. He described the 28-year-old order as a “sacred text” for which officials would propose changes in the coming months. Beyond that, the White House has said little about how it plans to change the Clinton-era directive. The White House Environmental Justice Advisory Council, or WHEJAC, which is made up of outside experts from advocacy and academia, offered copious recommendations 13 months ago on how to revise the executive order. But in a report to Congress last week, the White House Council on Environmental Quality focused on other planks of the president’s environmental justice agenda, including implementation of his investment initiative for disadvantaged communities and a beta screening tool to identify those communities (Climatewire, June 1). The Clinton-era order received only a small mention in the 201-page report. “The process of developing executive orders is lengthy because it involves a multi-step institutional review in preparation for the President to reach a decision,” CEQ stated in its report, adding that it was working “diligently” to find a “durable, impactful, and effective approach.” Biden issued his own executive order on climate change and environmental justice a week after being inaugurated last year. It gave federal agencies a deadline of May 2021 to submit recommendations for updating the 1994 executive order to climate adviser Gina McCarthy. The White House says that deadline was met. Environmental justice experts, including members of WHEJAC, which Biden created last year, say they’re less concerned about timing than about the scope and strength of the coming revision. The Clinton executive order was a watershed moment for the environmental justice movement and has survived four subsequent administrations. But its objectives were never fully realized. “So on one side, thank you very much, we really appreciate it, because if you’re releasing an executive order on environmental justice, well, then that must mean there is some environmental injustice,” said Richard Moore, co-chair of WHEJAC and a past chair of the advisory council to EPA established under the Clinton executive order. “But it could have been a lot deeper.”
Red States Still Pose a Major Threat to Biden’s Justice40 Initiative, Activists Warn - Harris County leaders were shocked last year when they learned their Texas communities, which had borne the brunt of Hurricane Harvey’s wrath in 2017, were getting no federal disaster aid from state officials in charge of disbursing the funds.The Category 4 storm tore through Gulf Coast states, resulting in at least 88 deaths and causing a record $125 billion in damage. For Harris County, which includes the city of Houston and its neighboring suburbs, the devastation was pronounced.Heavy rain pummeled the urban hub of 6.6 million people for days, destroying 204,000 homes and at one point submerging one-third of Houston underwater. It was therefore ludicrous, local officials and activists argued, that with $4 billion in federal aid going to Texas to help with flood preparation in the wake of Harvey, not a single Harris County municipality was lined up to get any of it.Federal officials agreed. In March, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development said in a report that the Texas General Land Office, run by George P. Bush, scion of the Bush dynasty, had discriminated against minority residents and violated federal civil rights protections by denying aid to Harris County. HUD urged the state agency to remedy the situation or risk legal action.For many in the environmental justice movement, the news highlights the critical role often played by states in the distribution of federal funds and underscores a potentially serious problem for President Biden’s ambitious environmental justice agenda, much of which hinges on the execution of the administration’s Justice40 initiative.Justice40 directs federal agencies to align their environmental and clean energy funding so that 40 percent of the “overall benefits” of that spending goes to “disadvantaged communities.” But since local and state governments largely dictate how the money they receive from the federal government gets used, activists say it’s unclear how a program like Justice40 will be enforced—especially in states like Texas, where Republican leadership has continued to defy federal guidance. “I think it is sort of a cautionary tale,” Ken Kramer, who ran the Texas chapter of the Sierra Club for 23 years before retiring in 2012, said of the ongoing dispute between HUD and Texas state leadership. “Basically a lot of federal programs are being implemented directly or indirectly through state and local officials,” many of whom don’t view environmental justice as “a priority issue.” After the HUD report in March, the Texas land office agreed to send Harris County $750 million of the roughly $1 billion in federal flood aid that Texas has so far distributed. But as the state prepares to allocate the next round of flood aid, the agency appears to be once again diverting that funding away from the Gulf Coast, where advocates say it’s most needed, a recent analysis by The Texas Tribune found. Instead, that money is set to go to predominantly White, rural counties where natural disasters are far less of a threat. The small agricultural community of Coryell County, for example, is slated to receive $3.4 million in Harvey-related flood aid, despite being located 220 miles from the ocean and having lost zero houses to the storm.The agency’s latest moves have come as money from last year’s $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure package begins to flow to states, cities and other local governments. Last month, the White House announced that $110 billion had already been approved for more than 4,300 projects across the nation.Activists want that money filtered through Justice40, saying it will help ensure it’s being distributed equitably and reaches the most vulnerable communities. And the infrastructure law itself gives some special consideration to disadvantaged communities, mainly by guaranteeing a certain share of competitive grants go to areas where census data indicates there is “persistent poverty.”
Global plastic waste on track to triple by 2060 (AFP) – A world severely blighted by plastic pollution is on track to see the use of plastics nearly triple in less than four decades, according to findings released Friday. Annual production of fossil-fuel-based plastics are set to top 1.2 billion tonnes by 2060 and waste to exceed one billion tonnes, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Even with aggressive action to cut demand and improve efficiencies, plastic production would almost double in less than 40 years, the 38-nation body projects in a report. Such globally coordinated policies, however, could hugely boost the share of future plastic waste that is recycled, from 12 to 40 percent. There is increasing international alarm over volume and omnipresence of plastics pollution, and its impact. Infiltrating the most remote and otherwise pristine regions of the planet, microplastics have been discovered inside fish in the deepest recesses of the ocean and locked inside Arctic ice. The debris is estimated to cause the deaths of more than a million seabirds and over 100,000 marine mammals each year. "Plastic pollution is one of the great environmental challenges of the 21st century, causing wide-ranging damage to ecosystems and human health," OECD chief Mathias Cormann said. Since the 1950s, roughly 8.3 billion tonnes of plastic have been produced with more than 60 percent of that tossed into landfills, burned or dumped directly into rivers and oceans. Some 460 million tonnes of plastics were used in 2019, twice as much as 20 years earlier. The amount of plastic waste has also nearly doubled, exceeding 350 million tonnes, with less than 10 percent of it recycled. The new report contrasts a business-as-usual trajectory with the benefits of more ambitious global policies of reduced plastic use and pollution. Driven by economic growth and an expanding population, plastics production is set to increase under either scenario, the OECD warns.
Plastic Recycling Doesn’t Work and Will Never Work - Atlantic - Americans support recycling. We do too. But although some materials can be effectively recycled and safely made from recycled content, plastics cannot. Plastic recycling does not work and will never work. The United States in 2021 had a dismal recycling rate of about 5 percent for post-consumer plastic waste, down from a high of 9.5 percent in 2014, when the U.S. exported millions of tons of plastic waste to China and counted it as recycled—even though much of it wasn’t.Recycling in general can be an effective way to reclaim natural material resources. The U.S.’s high recycling rate of paper, 68 percent, proves this point. The problem with recycling plastic lies not with the concept or process but with the material itself. The first problem is that there are thousands of different plastics, each with its own composition and characteristics. They all include different chemical additives and colorants that cannot be recycled together, making it impossible to sort the trillions of pieces of plastics into separate types for processing. For example, polyethylene terephthalate (PET#1) bottles cannot be recycled with PET#1 clamshells, which are a different PET#1 material, and green PET#1 bottles cannot be recycled with clear PET#1 bottles (which is why South Korea has outlawed colored PET#1 bottles.) High-density polyethylene (HDPE#2), polyvinyl chloride (PVC#3), low-density polyethylene (LDPE#4), polypropylene (PP#5), and polystyrene (PS#6) all must be separated for recycling. Just one fast-food meal can involve many different types of single-use plastic, including PET#1, HDPE#2, LDPE#4, PP#5, and PS#6 cups, lids, clamshells, trays, bags, and cutlery, which cannot be recycled together. This is one of several reasons why plastic fast-food service items cannot belegitimately claimed as recyclable in the U.S.Another problem is that the reprocessing of plastic waste—when possible at all—is wasteful. Plastic is flammable, and the risk of fires at plastic-recycling facilities affects neighboring communities—many of which are located in low-income communities or communities of color.Unlike metal and glass, plastics are not inert. Plastic products can include toxic additives and absorb chemicals, and are generally collected in curbside bins filled with possibly dangerous materials such as plastic pesticide containers. According to a report published by the Canadian government, toxicity risks in recycled plastic prohibit “the vast majority of plastic products and packaging produced” from being recycled into food-grade packaging.Yet another problem is that plastic recycling is simply not economical.Recycled plastic costs more than new plastic because collecting, sorting, transporting, and reprocessing plastic waste is exorbitantly expensive. The petrochemical industry is rapidly expanding, which will further lower the cost of new plastic.Despite this stark failure, the plastics industry has waged a decades-long campaign to perpetuate the myth that the material is recyclable. This campaign is reminiscent of the tobacco industry’s efforts to convince smokers that filtered cigarettes are healthier than unfiltered cigarettes.
Data reveal 20-year transformation of Gulf of Maine - A new synthesis of two decades of data has elucidated the startling transformation of the warming Gulf of Maine. Gathered and analyzed by researchers at Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences, the study shows many trends that all point to an overarching pattern. The Gulf of Maine is being increasingly influenced by warm water from the North Atlantic, and this is changing the very foundation of its food web. "We've seen that the growth rate of phytoplankton is about a third of what it was 20 years ago; that's a really big deal," said Senior Research Scientist William Balch, lead author on the NASA-funded study. "These microscopic plants are the base of the food web on which all ocean life depends, and the change is connected to patterns and processes well beyond the Gulf of Maine." Published by six authors from Bigelow Laboratory and two from Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences, the team's findings tell a complex, interconnected story of transformative change. The data show that the Gulf of Maine is rapidly warming overall. At the average depth of the Gulf, around 500 feet, mean temperatures have increased almost three degrees Fahrenheit over the last 20 years. Shallow waters have warmed slightly less during that time, and, surprisingly, have cooled in the spring months. Balch's new study is the first to show it. "We all work with this mantra that the Gulf of Maine is one of the fastest warming bodies of water on the planet," Balch said. "Well, there's an asterisk next to that now, which is really important to understanding the complex changes we're seeing." The cooling is only happening at depths above 160 feet and only during the spring season, which suggests an increasing amount of cold surface water is coming into the Gulf of Maine from cooler regions to the north, outside the Gulf. Despite this limited and seasonal exception, the Gulf is still warming significantly overall, which is driving its transformation. Balch and his team used the long-term data from the Gulf of Maine North Atlantic Time Series to determine that warm, salty water from the North Atlantic has been intruding into deeper parts of the Gulf since 2008. This has raised both the temperature and salinity—with significant impacts. "It's not like the Gulf of Maine is an isolated pond and all the warming happening here is only happening in place," Balch said. "Rising temperatures are in large part due to this large influx of North Atlantic water, which itself is getting warmer. These changes take time, and they are fundamentally altering the planet."
Human-triggered California wildfires are more severe than natural blazes - Human-caused wildfires in California are more ferocious than blazes sparked by lightning, a team led by scientists from the University of California, Irvine reported recently in the journal Nature Communications. The research could help scientists better understand fire severity and how likely a blaze is to kill trees and inflict long-term damage on an ecosystem in its path."Human-ignited fires grow more rapidly and release more energy as they're growing because they're often sparked under conditions that are hotter and drier," said James Randerson, Ralph J. and Carol M. Cicerone Professor of Earth system science at UCI and co-author of the study. "They're more ferocious."In contrast, lightning-strike blazes typically occur in weather with somewhat higher humidity, which can limit flame intensity.The work was made possible by UCI advances in fire modeling that enable scientists to better understand the forces that govern how fast blazes move. Those advances were detailed in a separate new study published inScientific Data."We created a fire tracking algorithm and applied it to the past nine fire seasons in California, which helped analyze the location, energy and spread of different types of fires," said Yang Chen, an assistant researcher in the Department of Earth System Science.To build their algorithm, Chen and colleagues looked at thermal hotspots from fire activity with an imaging device on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Suomi satellite. This allows for near-real-time tracking and modeling of wildfires."These types of data have been available in the past for individual fires," said Randerson. "But it hasn't been organized systematically, and it hasn't been available across all the fires in a region. That's where this new product helps. It allows us to identify where in California the fires burn fastest and how that relates to the weather and vegetation at a particular spot."This two-study effort was also one of the first times scientists have been able to link a fire's speed and energy release to its long-term effects on ecosystems—which can last for decades or even centuries. "The importance of this algorithm is that it could allow us to build better fire models in California and better track wildfires in parts of the world where we don't have aircraft and multiple satellite sensors measuring fires around the clock," Randerson added. "So this may be valuable for understanding fire behavior in remote boreal forests and in the understory of tropical forests."
Pacific Crest Trail may become unhikeable due to climate change - The Pacific Crest Trail is supposed to provide an escape from society, a place where a person can unplug and explore the wild and scenic landscapes that inspired America’s early naturalists. But increasingly it is morphing into an exhibition of ecological deterioration wrought by the warming climate. Higher temperatures, less snow and ice, dry springs, wildfires, smoky skies and denuded forests have come to define the experience of hiking the 2,600-mile trail, which extends from Mexico to Canada through the mountains of California, Oregon and Washington. The current generation of hikers is already having to adapt.“I’ve started carrying N95 masks with me while hiking,” said Brad Marston, a climate physics professor at Brown University who has hiked sections of the trail for the past nine years. While traversing a High Sierra segment in 2013, he said, “I had to get off the trail for a while because the smoke was too bad.”Being driven off the trail by fire or smoke, or enduring miles of parched scenery, has become part of the standard Pacific Crest experience. The growing threats have prompted the Pacific Crest Trail Association, which operates in partnership with the U.S. Forest Service, to begin shifting its mission from preserving the trail and managing hiking permits toward addressing environmental degradation head-on.“It can no longer be ignored: Climate change is serious and pressing, and these are some of our last chances to prevent some of the worst consequences,” said Jack Haskel, the association’s trail information officer.Wildfires are the primary source of disruption, but a drier, warmer future will likely yield all sorts of pitfalls for trail users — and particularly for the thousands of hardcore thru-hikers who attempt to trek the whole thing in a single, six-month odyssey each year.A recent article drawing on climate research co-authored by Marston paints a despairing portrait of the trail’s long-term outlook. Published in the latest edition of the Pacific Crest Trail Association’s quarterly magazine, it conjures scenes of charred forests, bare glacier beds, brittle vegetation, hazy skies and hotter days.According to the article, hikers will face heightened risk of heat stroke by the end of the century, as triple-digit summer temperatures on the trail “will become exceedingly common.” Early-season snow may be minimal, and the streams hikers rely on for drinking water may dry up, leaving no place to get water for stretches as long as 40 miles.
‘Study finds groundwater depletion causes California farmland to sink, suggests countermeasures - The floor of California's arid Central Valley is sinking as groundwater pumping for agriculture and drinking water depletes aquifers. A new remote sensing study from Stanford University shows land sinking—or subsidence—will likely continue for decades to centuries if underground water levels merely stop declining. To stop the sinking, water levels will need to rise."If you don't get these water levelsto come back up, then the land is going to sink, potentially tens of centimeters per year, for decades. But if they go up, you can get rewarded very quickly. You almost immediately improve the situation," said Matthew Lees, a geophysics Ph.D. student and lead author of the study, which appears June 2 in Water Resources Research.The research comes amid worsening drought in a state where climate change is tipping the odds toward hot conditions with more precipitation extremes. The first four months of 2022 marked California's driest start to a year since 1895. Reservoir levels are so low that, for a second year in a row, many irrigation districts are poised to receive none of their usual allocations of water from the Central Valley Project, the federally managed network of reservoirs and canals that conveys water to some 3 million acres of farmland."There is an urgent need to better understand the fundamental mechanisms controlling the link between water levels and deformation of the ground surface," said senior study author Rosemary Knight, a professor of geophysics at Stanford's School of Earth, Energy & Environmental Sciences (Stanford Earth) and senior fellow at Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment.Historically, diminished surface water supplies have led farmers to rely heavily on groundwater for irrigation in the Central Valley. This region produces about a quarter of the nation's food and now holds most of the 21 groundwater basins designated as being critically overdrafted under California's landmark 2014 Sustainable Groundwater Management Act, or SGMA.The law requires local water agencies to bring groundwater basin withdrawals and deposits into balance by 2040. Under SGMA, agencies are also required to craft plans to monitor and address land subsidence, which can damage infrastructure and has already reduced the carrying capacity of critical aqueducts and canals.The first round of sustainable management plans, submitted over the past year, have in several cases come up short in dealing with subsidence. California's Department of Water Resources has given agencies until July 2022 to address deficiencies such as a lack of information about infrastructure potentially at risk due to land subsidence, inadequate evidence to demonstrate correlation between groundwater levels and land subsidence, and insufficient historical information about land subsidence."The modeling carried out in this study, if done in areas throughout the state, would provide the scientific basis needed to inform sustainable management. A range of possible actions to mitigate subsidence could be rigorously assessed,"
As the Great Salt Lake Dries Up, Utah Faces An ‘Environmental Nuclear Bomb’ - The New York Times Climate change and rapid population growth are shrinking the lake, creating a bowl of toxic dust that could poison the air around Salt Lake City. — If the Great Salt Lake, which has already shrunk by two-thirds, continues to dry up, here’s what’s in store: The lake’s flies and brine shrimp would die off — scientists warn it could start as soon as this summer — threatening the 10 million migratory birds that stop at the lake annually to feed on the tiny creatures. Ski conditions at the resorts above Salt Lake City, a vital source of revenue, would deteriorate. The lucrative extraction of magnesium and other minerals from the lake could stop. Most alarming, the air surrounding Salt Lake City would occasionally turn poisonous. The lake bed contains high levels of arsenic and as more of it becomes exposed, wind storms carry that arsenic into the lungs of nearby residents, who make up three-quarters of Utah’s population. “We have this potential environmental nuclear bomb that’s going to go off if we don’t take some pretty dramatic action,” said Joel Ferry, a Republican state lawmaker and rancher who lives on the north side of the lake. As climate change continues to cause record-breaking drought, there are no easy solutions. Saving the Great Salt Lake would require letting more snowmelt from the mountains flow to the lake, which means less water for residents and farmers. That would threaten the region’s breakneck population growth and high-value agriculture — something state leaders seem reluctant to do. Utah’s dilemma raises a core question as the country heats up: How quickly are Americans willing to adapt to the effects of climate change, even as those effects become urgent, obvious, and potentially catastrophic? The stakes are alarmingly high, according to Timothy D. Hawkes, a Republican lawmaker who wants more aggressive action. Otherwise, he said, the Great Salt Lake risks the same fate as California’s Owens Lake, which went dry decades ago, producing the worst levels of dust pollution in the United States and helping to turn the nearby community into a veritable ghost town. “It’s not just fear-mongering,” he said of the lake vanishing. “It can actually happen.”
New study finds extreme, severe drought impacting the upper Colorado River basin in the second century - The drought currently impacting the upper Colorado River Basin is extremely severe. A new study from federal government and university scientists led by the Bureau of Reclamation and published in Geophysical Research Letters identifies a second-century drought unmatched in severity by the current drought or previously identified droughts."Previous studies have been limited to the past 1,200 years, but a limited number of paleo records of moisture variability date back 2,000 years," . "While there has been research showing extended dry periods in the southwest back to the eighth century, this reconstruction of the Colorado River extends nearly 800 years further into the past."The research finds that compared to the current 22-year drought in the Colorado River, with only 84% of the average water flow, the water flow during a 22-year period in the second century was much lower, just 68% of the average water flow. "Tree-ring records are sparse back to the second century," said . "However, this extreme drought event is also documented in paleoclimatic data from lakes, bogs, and caves."The authors reconstructed the streamflow at Lees Ferry on the Colorado River to develop these findings. Paleoclimatic data for the reconstruction is from a gridded network of tree-ring-based Palmer Drought Severity Index values. These extended records inform water managers whether droughts in the distant past were similar to or more severe than observed droughts in the past centuries. The baseline for the study’s analysis uses the natural flow estimates data from 1906 to 2021 from the Lees Ferry gage.The reconstructed streamflow data developed in this research is now available for public use. It is anticipated that water managers will use this new extended data to understand past droughts better and to plan for future droughts. "The results of this work can provide water managers with an increased understanding of the range of flow variability in the Colorado River," "It should provide information to help water managers plan for even more persistent and severe droughts than previously considered." "For future work, collection and analysis of more remnant wood can further document this second century drought," The Colorado River basin is experiencing a severe 22-year drought with extensive impacts throughout the West. This includes water for homes and crops to the generation of electricity that supports everything we do. Drought impacts everything within the basin.
ERCOT projects record electricity demand this week as temps soar - Texas' electrical grid manager is forecasting that demand for power will reach an all-time high on Wednesday.Officials with the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, published in their day-ahead forecast that Texans could use 75,186 megawatts of electricity tomorrow, exceeding the 74,820 megawatt record set in August 2019. One megawatt is enough electricity to power about 200 homes on a hot summer day.Despite the high demand, Christy Penders, a spokeswoman for ERCOT, said the agency "expects sufficient generation to meet forecasted demand." Forecasters had originally projected the record to be broken on Tuesday, before revising their estimated demand to peak at 73,660 megawatts at 6 p.m.Record high temperatures are expected to blanket much of the state this week, according to Space City Weather. High pressure will park over the region, bringing temperatures up to the upper 90s potentially starting on Wednesday. By Saturday, temperatures could reach at or near 100 degrees across greater Houston.Demand for power is expected to climb much higher.In their Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy for summer, ERCOT officials wrote demand could reach as high as 77,317 megawatts. The report's authors chalked that increase to a rise in population and new commercial operations that have moved to the Lone Star State.The report also expected 91,392 megawatts of generation to be online during peak summer demand hours.
Texas Power Demand To Hit Record High Amid Sweltering Summer Heat -Texans are cranking up their air conditions this week as high temperatures across the state are forecasted to exceed triple digits and could strain the state's power grid. Last week, Houston-based energy firm Criterion Research warned of the incoming surge in power demand. According to Reuters, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), Texas' main grid operator, expects power demand to reach 75,195 megawatts (MW) on Tuesday, which would surpass August 2019 levels marking a record high. "ERCOT weather-adjusted loads have been increasing rapidly since mid-2021," said Morris Greenberg, senior North American power analysis manager at S&P Global Commodity Insights.As soon as Tuesday, average high temperatures across the state could reach the upper 90s Fahrenheit and breach 100 degrees Fahrenheit in some areas. Bloomberg forecasts show high temperatures could surge between 100-106 Fahrenheit through mid-month -- scorching hot weather will lead to businesses and residents boosting cooling demand. The problem for Texans isn't just the threat of power blackouts from a strained power grid this summer but soaring energy bills due to the rising cost of power generation. The average price-per-kilowatt hour of electricity for Texas residents has increased 70 percent year-over-year from June 2021, according to The Dallas Morning News' Mitchell Sherman, who compared new rates offered by state power providers in 2022 to those consumers were offered in 2021. According to Power to Choose, a site through which Texas consumers can compare power plans, Lone Star State residents signing new contracts in June 2022 are paying 18.48 cents per kilowatt hour—10.5 cents more than the averaged rate they were paying in June, 2021 (7.98 cents). -- Houston Chronicle Power bills for businesses and residents could be a "real sticker shock," AARP Texas Associate State Director Tim Morstad told Sherman. Rising power bills are primarily due to the soaring price of natural gas. About 45% of Texas' grid is powered by natgas.
June temperatures in Queensland dropping to lowest in more than a century, Australia - The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has warned residents living in southeast Queensland of frosty mornings and single-digit temperatures throughout the month as well below June average temperatures descend over much of southeast Australia. Some parts of the state are experiencing their lowest June temperatures in more than 100 years.“It‘s usually the last week of June that we get temperatures as cold as this, so it’s unusual to have it this cold at the start of June,” Meteorologist Helen Reid told NCA NewsWire.1“We‘re still looking at temperatures well below the June average.”The coldest parts of the state on June 7 were down on the flat country in Darling Downs, with some areas sitting at 1 or 2 °C (33.8 – 35.6 °F), Reid said.The cold spell is expected to last at least a week, with another cold wave expected to sweep in from the southern states next week.“A conveyor belt of cold fronts will maintain bitterly cold, wet and windy weather over southeastern Australia throughout the 2nd week of winter,” Weatherzone’s Ben Domasino noted, adding that Australia’s southeastern states have been stuck in a pattern of frequent cold fronts since the end of May, keeping temperatures a few degrees below average on most days this past week.2“This spell of wintry weather now looks likely to continue for at least another week, as a near-stationary low pressure system in the Tasman Sea drives icy air from the fringes of Antarctica over southeastern Australia.”The system caused widespread showers and heavy alpine snow, with some areas like Mt. Hotham, a Victorian ski resort, receiving a whopping 44 cm (17.3 inches) in just 24 hours on June 5 and 6.In 7 days to June 8, the resort recorded 91 cm (35.8 inches) of snow of the season’s 133 cm (52.3 inches) total. Snow depth at the time is 93 cm (36.6 inches).3Continuous heavy snow was also reported across NSW, Tasmania and the ACT.
A huge Atlantic ocean current is slowing down—if it collapses, La Niña could become the norm for Australia -Climate change is slowing down the conveyor belt of ocean currents that brings warm water from the tropics up to the North Atlantic. Our research, published today inNature Climate Change, looks at the profound consequences to global climate if this Atlantic conveyor collapses entirely.We found the collapse of this system—called the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation—would shift the Earth's climate to a more La Niña-like state. This would mean more flooding rains over eastern Australia and worse droughts and bushfire seasons over southwest United States.East-coast Australians know what unrelenting La Niña feels like. Climate change has loaded our atmosphere with moister air, while two summers of La Niña warmed the ocean north of Australia. Both contributed to some of the wettest conditions ever experienced, with record-breaking floods in New South Wales and Queensland.Meanwhile, over the southwest of North America, a record drought and severe bushfires have put a huge strain on emergency services and agriculture, with the 2021 fires alone estimated to have cost at least US$70 billion.Earth's climate is dynamic, variable, and ever-changing. But our current trajectory of unabated greenhouse gas emissions is giving the whole system a giant kick that'll have uncertain consequences—consequences that'll rewrite our textbook description of the planet's ocean circulation and its impact.
Heavy rains and floods affect over 800,000 people in China’s Jiangxi - (video) The latest round of heavy rain affecting China’s Jiangxi Province since May 28, 2022, affected nearly 800 000 people.The rainfall wreaked havoc in the province’s 80 counties, damaged 76 300 ha (187 8000 acres) of crops, and caused direct economic losses of 1.16 billion yuan (about 174 million U.S. dollars), according to the provincial flood control and drought relief headquarters.1Many villagers from Ganzhou City have been evacuated after heavy rains triggered floods on June 6, CCTV reported. Downpours battered the Ganxian District of the city from 03:00 to 09:00 UTC on June 6, with the accumulated rainfall reaching 265 mm (10.43 inches), inundating croplands and roads. Local authorities issued the highest alert for rainstorms on the morning of June 6 and suspended classes for more than 10 000 children.
Severe thunderstorms, tennis ball-sized hail wreak havoc across France - (video) Severe thunderstorms brought heavy rain and up to tennis ball-sized hail to France on June 3 and 4, 2022, wreaking havoc in vineyards across large parts of the country, leaving thousands of homes without power, one person dead and 15 injured – two of them seriously.
- Météo-France issued an Orange severe weather alert for 65 departments on June 4 – for the first time in more than 20 years.
- Some areas saw a month’s worth of rain in just 12 hours.
- 50 000 lighting strikes were registered in 24 hours to June 5.
- Saint Gervais d’Auvergne in Puy de Dôme recorded winds of 106km/h (66 mph).
A woman died after being trapped under a car by flash waters caused by a storm in the northern city of Rouen, the mayor’s office announced.1In the Landes and Gers region of southwest France, hailstones bigger than golf balls crashed down on parts of the Armagnac vineyard, affecting tens of thousands of hectares.“In the vineyards, there is nothing left, the roof of our agricultural building is a giant Swiss cheese, and in the house, the windows are broken,” wine grower Nelly Lacave from the Landes region told AFP. “My father, who is almost 70 years old, has never seen this,” she added.In Loir-et-Cher, central France, 30 000 scouts who gathered for a camping trip over the Pentecost holiday weekend had to be rushed to safety, many of them inside the local chateau.Météo-France reported some areas saw a month’s worth of rain in just 12 hours to 06:00 LT on June 5, including 74 mm (2.91 inches) in Saint Yan (Saône et Loire) – normal June rainfall, 57 mm (2.2 inches) in Vichy (Allier) – 3/4 of normal June rainfall, and 54 mm (2.1 inches) in St Didier en Donjoj (Allier) – representing around 3/4 of the usual June rainfall.Roads and streets were flooded up and down the country, including in areas of the capital, Paris, and in the northern departments of Yvelines, Seine-Maritime, Eure and Eure-et-Loir.2Authorities warned that levels of the Eure River are dangerously high in Eure-et-Loir while local media reported that 2 bridges over the river in the Mayenne department were washed away.Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin said one person died in flood waters in Rouen. 15 people were injured, of which 2 seriously.Météo-France said very intense electrical activity accompanied the storms, with around 50 000 lightning strikes on the ground in 24 hours, including ~41 000 in just 12 hours.Saint Gervais d’Auvergne (Puy de Dôme) recorded winds of 106 km/h (65.8 mph), Montbeugny (Allier) and Chalmazel Jeansagnière (Loire) 104 km/h (64.6 mph) and Saint André en Terre Plaine (Yonne) 103 km/h (64 mph).
Widespread floods and landslides hit Cuba, leaving at least 3 people dead - (videos) Floods and landslides caused by heavy rains brought by Potential Tropical Cyclone One (later named Tropical Storm “Alex”) left at least three people dead in Cuba on June 3, 2022. The storm also brought widespread flooding to parts of Florida, U.S. and is now heading toward Bermuda.In 30 hours to June 3, 301 mm (11.8 inches) of rain was registered in Paso Real de San Diego in Pinar del Río, 279 mm (10.98 inches) in San Juan y Martinez, Pinar del Río, 193 mm (7.59 inches) in Playa Giron, Matanzas, and 171 mm (6.73 inches) in Santiago de las Vegas, Havana.Flooding was reported in several parts of the country including the provinces of Havana, Pinar del Río, Artemisa, Sancti Spíritus and Matanzas and also the island municipality of Isla de la Juventud.1The worst affected were the western and central regions of the country, including Havana where heavy rains disrupted power supply, damaged 60 homes and forced 2 300 people to evacuate.At least 4 480 people were displaced in Pinar del Río. Two people died in the province of Havana due to a landslide and the one in Pinar del Rio after falling into a swollen river.The disturbance also caused widespread flooding in parts of Florida, U.S. on June 4 before exiting into the Atlantic Ocean and becoming Tropical Storm “Alex” at 06:00 UTC on June 5 – the first named storm of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season.According to the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS), downtown Miami saw a total of 279 mm (11 inches) of rain as of Saturday morning, June 4, with some parts of the state experiencing over 305 mm (1 foot) of rain.2 Palm Beach International Airport registered 114.80 mm (4.52 inches) of rain, breaking the previous high for June 4 of 66.5 mm (2.62 inches) set in 1978.Boca Raton in Palm Beach County registered 251.2 mm (9.89 inches) in 24 hours to midnight (LT) on June 4 while Margate received 375.6 mm (14.79 inches).The four climate sites used by the NWS to gauge rainfall and located at airports in Naples, Fort Lauderdale, Miami and West Palm Beach all set rain records for June 4, NWS meteorologist Sammy Hadi said.Alex is now heading toward Bermuda and is forecast to pass near or just north of the archipelago on June, bringing tropical storm conditions.
Air pollution may increase freezing rain in northern hemisphere - Freezing rain is a typical weather disaster in winter and early spring over many regions of the world, even tropical areas. It develops as supercooled water (below 0 °C) in the air and freezes immediately after depositing on cold surfaces. In southern China, freezing rain mainly happens in the mountainous areas. Now, researchers from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of Chinese Academy of Sciences have found that air pollution may increase freezing rain in the northern hemisphere. Their findings were published in Atmospheric Environment. The nature of freezing rain is that raindrops stay supercooled in the atmosphere below 0 °C. Previous studies have attributed the presence of supercooled drops in the atmosphere to the lack of ice nuclei. In fact, this is not the case, because ice nuclei remain in supercooled drops when snow melts and forms these drops in even higher and warmer conditions. Laboratory experiments have found that elevated soluble chemicals help the drops stay supercooled, and this chemical effect, known as freezing point depression, is also reproduced by numerical models. However, there is no evidence from field observations that the effect of freezing point depression exists in the precipitation. Since 2015, Drs. Li Xingyu and Pan Yuepeng from IAP have been conducting a long-term measurement of the physical and chemical composition of freezing rain at Mount Heng, which lies in south-central China at 27°18′6″N, 112°41′5″E. The elevation of the sampling site is 1265.9 m, above the top of the atmospheric boundary layer, with temperature near 0 °C in winter favoring the occurrence of supercooled fog and freezing rain. This sampling site has also recorded the record icing thickness in China. According to the first seven-year observations, the freezing rain at Mount Heng was found to be acidic (pH < 5) with higher concentrations of soluble ions and organics than those in rain. The team also worked with climatologists at universities and research institutes in Canada and China to explore the formation mechanisms of freezing rain and their trends in the future. They found that as the concentrations of soluble ions (especially ammonium nitrate) increase, the ambient temperatures of freezing rain show decreasing trends. "The higher ionic concentration may depress the temperature needed to freeze raindrops and this process prolongs the existence of freezing rain." "Against the background of global warming, the influencing area of the freezing rain will shift northward, and the effect of freezing point depression induced by air pollution in northern China may be amplified,"
Ultrafine atmospheric dust from exhaust gases of fossil fuels might cause weather extremes - Strong precipitation or extreme drought—the frequency of extreme weather events is increasing worldwide. Existing climate models, however, do not adequately show their dynamics. Researchers of Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) assume that ultrafine particles in the atmosphere have a significant impact on cloud physics and, hence, on weather. Their aircraft measurements confirm an increase in particle emissions in spite of a decreasing coarse fine dust concentration and blame it on the combustion of fossil fuels in exhaust gas cleaning systems. Their results are published in Scientific Reports.According to latest reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC for short, weather extremes, such as droughts and strong precipitation, will increase in the future. "So far,climate researchers have attributed these changes to an increasing carbon dioxide concentration and the higher water vapor capacity of a warmer atmosphere," says Dr. Wolfgang Junkermann from the Atmospheric Environmental Research Division of KIT's Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-IFU), KIT's Campus Alpine in Garmisch-Partenkirchen. As carbon dioxide is homogeneously distributed in space due to its longevity, however, it does not sufficiently explain the variability of the distribution and occurrence of extreme weather events without taking into account the hydrological cycle, he adds. Together with climate researcher Professor Jorg Hacker from the independent Airborne Research Australia (ARA) Research Institute, Junkermann argues that ultrafine particles from a few nanometers up to 100 nanometers in size are produced by the combustion of fossil fuels and significantly contribute to extreme weather events, because they act as condensation nuclei and have a regional, short-term impact on cloud physics. "With conventional cloud formation models, we can show that the increase in ultrafine particles results in the formation of also particularly fine droplets," Junkermann explains. "As a result, water stays much longer in the atmosphere, rain is initially suppressed, and an additional energy reservoir develops in the middle troposphere, which promotes extreme precipitation. It may happen hundreds of kilometers away. A heterogeneous distribution of nanoparticle pollution might explain the big regional differences of extreme weather events." "Over the Mediterranean Sea, for instance, particle concentration has increased by a factor of 25 since the 1970s," Junkermann says. "In the same period, strong variations of precipitation can be observed with a decrease in regular rainfall and an increase in drought and extreme events."Similar patterns are encountered in Australia and Mongolia. This finding is based on extensive measurements with small airplanes that produced what is probably the biggest dataset of this type over a period of 20 years. The data cover historically reconstructable emissions and well-documented regional climate changes in areas of Asia, Central America, Europe, and Australia.These data confirm an extreme increase in particle emissions since the 1970s. "At certain locations, we found up to 150,000 particles/cm³ compared to about 1,000 particles 40 years ago," Junkermann says. "These extreme concentrations were attributed to power plants, refineries, or ship traffic and often and in particular to large incineration plants with latest exhaust gas technology."
Air pollution gets worse during winter at airports -Air pollution kills approximately 7 million people every year worldwide. According to researchers from McGill University, airports are hotspots for airborne pollutants that are detrimental to human health and the Earth’s climate. Studying air pollution at three major Canadian airports the researchers found that airports situated in colder climates accumulated more pollutants like PM2.5 in the fall and winter, compared to airports in milder climates. The smallest and the coldest airport with the least number of flights and passengers had the highest PM2.5 concentration. “Meteorological factors such as the cold temperature and snowfall concentrate pollutants and alter their distribution. Targeted reduction of PM2.5 emissions is recommended, especially for cold climate regions where we observe higher concentrations of pollutants,” says Professor Parisa Ariya of the Departments of Chemistry and Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences. During the COVID-19 lockdown, the researchers found that concentrations of PM2.5 and other particles in residential areas close to one airport decreased to such an extent that it conformed to the recommended workplace health threshold. Before the lockdown it exceeded this threshold. “The drop in the concentration of pollutants due to COVID-19 reveals how much pollution is generated at airports during normal activities. It also shows how much pollution workers and residents of the area are exposed to, especially during cold seasons,” says Professor Ariya. “PM2.5 decadal data in cold vs. mild climate airports: COVID-19 era and a call for sustainable air quality policy” by Rodrigo Rangel-Alvarado et al. was published inEnvironmental Science and Pollution Research.
New eruptive fissures open up at Etna volcano, Italy - Two new eruptive fissures have opened up at Etna volcano, Italy late June 7, 2022. Lava is being poorly fed and the flow has expanded only by a few tens of meters.The fissures opened at the base of the northern wall of Valle del Bove, in the Serracozzo area, at an altitude of about 1 900 to 1 950 m (6 233 – 6 397 feet).Lava is being poorly fed and the flow has expanded only by a few tens of meters, INGV-OE said.1On the other hand, the effusive activity from fissures that opened up on May 29, between 2 700 and 2 900 m (8 858 – 9 514 feet) continues unchanged, with the active lava fronts reaching an altitude of about 2 000 m (6 561 feet).Regarding the average magnitude of the volcanic tremor, since late yesterday evening, a phase of gradual decline has been observed that brought this parameter from high to medium-high values.The sources of the tremors are located in the SE crater area at an altitude of about 2 900 m (9 514 feet) above sea level.Infrasonic activity is low, however, the strong wind this morning may have affected the detection of infrasonic events.According to an analysis of soil deformation signals, no noise changes have been detected in the last few hours at clinometric and GNSS stations.
Popocatepetl volcano erupts after more than a month of quiescence, Mexico - (video) Mexico’s Popocatepetl volcano erupted at 05:36 UTC on June 7, 2022, after more than a month of relative quiescence. The Alert Level remains at Yellow, Phase Two (the middle level on a three-color scale). In 24 hours to 16:00 UTC on June 7, the Popocatépetl volcano monitoring systems detected 30 low-intensity exhalations, accompanied by water vapor, volcanic gases and light amounts of ash, with the most notable event at 00:36 UTC.1 Additionally, 102 minutes of tremor were recorded. During the morning and by 16:00 UTC, a slight emission of water vapor and volcanic gases with a southwest (SW) direction was observed. CENAPRED urges residents and tourists not to approach the volcano and especially the crater, due to the danger of falling ballistic fragments and, in case of heavy rains, to stay away from the bottoms of ravines due to the danger of mud and debris flows.
Eruption at Anak Krakatau volcano, Indonesia - Anak Krakatau volcano erupted at 06:05 UTC on June 8, 2022, with the height of the ash column observed ± 500 m (1 640 feet) above the peak (± 657 m / 2 155 feet above sea level). The Alert Level remains at 3 and the Aviation Color Code at Orange. The ash column is observed to be gray in color with thick intensity towards the south. This eruption was recorded on a seismograph with a maximum amplitude of 50 mm and a duration of 75 seconds. People/visitors/tourists/climbers are advised not to approach the volcano or engage in activities within a 5 km (3.1 miles) radius of the active crater.1 anak krakatau eruption june 8 2022 Image credit: PVMBG Anak Krakatau on June 3, 2022 Anak Krakatau on June 3, 2022. Anak Krakatau on June 3, 2022 Anak Krakatau on June 3, 2022. Credit: Copernicus EU/Sentinel-2 (SWIR), The Darwin VAAC reported that on May 18 a diffuse ash plume from Anak Krakatau rose to 2.4 km (8 000 feett) a.s.l. and drifted WNW based on satellite images and weather models. On May 19 a dense steam plume with diffuse ash rose to 2.4 km and drifted N. anak krakatau on may 19 2022 sentinel-2 Anak Krakatau on May 19, 2022. Volcanic activity at Anak Krakatau intensified in April 2022, culminating with intense explosive eruptions on April 24:
Antarctica's only active volcano shows how CO2 allows volcanoes to form persistent lava lakes at the surface - A joint University of Utah and University of Canterbury New Zealand study shows how CO2 deep underground helps magma avoid being trapped deep in the Earth and allows it to reach and pool at the surface.The study, published in Nature Communications"expands our understanding of the sources and transport of diverse types of magma and volatile gases to the surface," says Phil Wannamaker, the study's second author and a geophysicist at the University of Utah's Energy & Geoscience Institute."Mount Erebus is an example of a CO2-dominated riftvolcano, a complement to the more widely known arc volcanoes of the Pacific Rim and elsewhere, dominated by H2O," adds New Zealand co-investigator Graham Hill, the study's lead author."Understanding both H2O and CO2 volcanoes is important for calculating the budget of such volatile gases deep in the earth that involves injection of material into Earth's mantle and its return to the surface to start all over again", Wannamaker says. Mount Erebus is Antarctica's only active volcano. It and its dormant companion volcano, Mount Terror, were named after the exploring ships of Sir James Ross, who discovered them and the Transantarctic Mountains in 1841. Mount Erebus was first ascended by Sir Ernest Shackleton and party in 1908. Erebus exemplifies a family of volcanoes with an alkalic chemical composition, with lavas relatively rich in sodium, potassium and other elements including rare earths elements, while being relatively poor in silica. Erebus lies along the margin of the West Antarctic Rift System, originating tens of millions of years ago and continuing today.The magmas in rift zone also have volatiles from the recycling of ocean crust and sediments, but these are much older and are liberated to the surface through the rift process. Instead of water, the volatiles in these magmas are CO2-dominated.Erebus also has a persistent lava lake, a classic feature of an evolved, CO2-rich rift volcano. But lava lakes, also exemplified by Nyiragongo volcano in East Africa, and others, are not found in arc volcanoes like the Cascades and show that there must be something about rift volcanoes that allows magma to reach the surface relatively peacefully.Hill, Wannamaker and colleagues used a method called magnetotelluric sounding. Magnetotelluric sounding uses natural electromagnetic waves generated by the sun and by lightning bolts. Most such waves travel through the air, but "a portion penetrate the Earth, scatter off rock structures of interest and return to the surface, where we can measure them" using sophisticated "volt meters", Wannamaker says.As the electromagnetic waves pass through Earth's interior, they travel faster or slower depending on the extent to which rock and other material conducts or resists electricity. Magma is conductive, so it can be detected by this technique.Their magnetotelluric data show a steep conduit of low electrical resistivity originating in the upper mantle—the magma source. But the conduit takes a pronounced lateral turn in the deep crust before reaching shallower magmatic storage and the summit lava lake. "We interpret the lateral turn to represent a structural 'fault-valve' controlling episodic flow of magma and CO2 gases, which replenish and heat the high-level phonolite magma evolution chamber," Wannamaker says. Phonolite is the rock type formed by Erebus' magma.
Ice world: Antarctica's riskiest glacier is under assault from below and losing its grip - Flying over Antarctica, it's hard to see what all the fuss is about. Like a gigantic wedding cake, the frosting of snow on top of the world's largest ice sheet looks smooth and unblemished, beautiful and perfectly white. Little swirls of snow dunes cover the surface.But as you approach the edge of the ice sheet, a sense of tremendous underlying power emerges. Cracks appear in the surface, sometimes organized like a washboard, and sometimes a complete chaos of spires and ridges, revealing the pale blue crystalline heart of the ice below. As the plane flies lower, the scale of these breaks steadily grows. These are not just cracks, but canyons large enough to swallow a jetliner, or spires the size of monuments. Cliffs and tears, rips in the white blanket emerge, indicating a force that can toss city blocks of ice around like so many wrecked cars in a pileup. It's a twisted, torn, wrenched landscape. A sense of movement also emerges, in a way that no ice-free part of the Earth can convey—the entire landscape is in motion, and seemingly not very happy about it.Antarctica is a continent comprising several large islands, one of them the size of Australia, all buried under a10,000-foot-thick layer of ice. The ice holds enough fresh water to raise sea level by nearly 200 feet.Its glaciers have always been in motion, but beneath the ice, changes are taking place that are having profound effects on the future of the ice sheet—and on the future of coastal communities around the world.Early on, changes in the ice happened slowly. Icebergs would break away, but the ice was replaced by new outflow. Total snowfall had not changed much in centuries—this we knew from looking at ice cores—and in general the flow of ice and the elevation of the ice sheet seemed so constant that a main goal of early ice research in Antarctica was finding a place, any place, that had changed dramatically.But now, as the surrounding air and ocean warm, areas of the Antarctic ice sheet that had been stable for thousands of years are breaking, thinning, melting, or in some cases collapsing in a heap. As these edges of the ice react, they send a powerful reminder: If even a small part of the ice sheet were to completely crumble into the sea, the impact for the world's coasts would be severe.
Antarctic glaciers losing ice at fastest rate for 5,500 years, finds study - At the current rate of retreat the vast glaciers, which extend deep into the heart of the ice sheet, could contribute as much as 3.4 metres to global sea level rise over the next several centuries. Antarctica is covered by two huge ice masses: the East and West Antarctic Ice Sheets, which feed many individual glaciers. Because of the warming climate, the WAIS has been thinning at accelerated rates over the past few decades. Within the ice sheet, the Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers are particularly vulnerable to global warming and are already contributing to rises in sea level. Now, a new study led by the University of Maine and the British Antarctic Survey, including academics from Imperial College London, has measured the rate of local sea level change – an indirect way to measure ice loss – around these particularly vulnerable glaciers. They found that the glaciers have begun retreating at a rate not seen in the last 5,500 years. With areas of 192,000 km2 (nearly the size of the island of Great Britain) and 162,300 km2 respectively, the Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers have the potential to cause large rises in global sea level. Co-author Dr Dylan Rood of Imperial’s Department of Earth Science and Engineering said: “We reveal that although these vulnerable glaciers were relatively stable during the past few millennia, their current rate of retreat is accelerating and already raising global sea level. “These currently elevated rates of ice melting may signal that those vital arteries from the heart of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet have been ruptured, leading to accelerating flow into the ocean that is potentially disastrous for future global sea level in a warming world. Is it too late to stop the bleeding?" The paper is published in Nature Geoscience.
Scientists find new indicators of Alaska permafrost thawing - More areas of year-round unfrozen ground have begun dotting Interior and Northwest Alaska and will continue to increase in extent due to climate change, according to new research by University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute scientists. The scientists said the spread of taliks—volumes of unfrozen ground within areas of permafrost—has major implications for the movement of carbon among organisms, minerals and the atmosphere. Taliks will also affect the transfer in water of material such as nutrients and increase development of thermokarsts, areas of sunken land formed by the thawing of permafrost. Their findings were reported today in the journal Nature Geoscience. Louise Farquharson, a research assistant professor, authored the paper. "We're in a transition phase where we commonly see talik formation but also can see them refreeze if we have a year with low snow and very cold winter temperatures or a cool summer," Farquharson said. "After approximately 2030, however, our air temperatures in the summer and winter will warm up enough that we're going to have talik formation no matter what the snow does." "I think it's important for people to know that what we have seen so far with permafrost degradation in Fairbanks, for example, is not a steady state," she said. "The rate and extent of permafrost degradation is probably going to accelerate as talik development really kicks in." Taliks can occur at a variety of locations: between the top of the permafrost and the bottom of the seasonally frozen layer, within the permafrost due to water flow and within the permafrost due to previous thaw events, such as after a lake has drained. They can also cut through the whole permafrost column where permafrost is thin, often due to the presence of rivers or lakes. More taliks will form in a wider area of Alaska as summer and winter temperatures increase and the depth of summer ground thaw begins to exceed the depth of winter freeze.
CO2 level just passed an important benchmark – a measure of humanity’s war on nature -Carbon dioxide, measured in Hawaii at the Mauna Loa observatory, reached 420 parts per million in May. This is a 50 percent increase above pre-industrial levels, the highest in human history — and the highest since the Pliocene Climatic Optimum over 4 million years ago. We should take note of conditions during the Pliocene: global temperatures averaged 7 degrees Fahrenheit higher (3.9 degrees Celsius) than pre-industrial times and sea level was dozens of feet above present. But the drive to renewable energy is solving this problem — right? Not yet. Pledges made by countries to limit emissions over the long term could keep warming to less than 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) above pre-industrial temperatures. This is good news, and coupled with analysis that in 2021 wind and solar generated over 10 percent of global electricity (for the first time), is cause for optimism. However, since we began measuring carbon dioxide 60 years ago, the annual growth rate has more than doubled, fossil fuels still account for more than 80 percent of global energy production. Meanwhile, current energy policies (on-the-ground government commitments) put us on track to warm more than 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit (around 2.6 degrees Celsius, with a range of 2 degrees Celsius to 3.7 degrees Celsius) before the end of this century. This is a level of severe and dangerous global heating that can only be avoided with a massive rollout of carbon dioxide removal technology and large-scale reforestation that is nowhere in evidence today. Additionally, these projections do not account for greenhouse gas under-reporting (by 23 percent), growing instability of carbon storage by tropical forests and Arctic tundra and the approaching specter of a temperature tipping point to land-based photosynthesis. Evidence shows that 83 percent of forest carbon loss results from agriculture, suggesting that strategies to reduce forest loss are not successful, and that amplified carbon losses from deforestation are undercounted in Earth system models. With warming of 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit (3 degrees Celsius), well within the range of current policies, models project that potentially one-third of humanity could be displaced by unlivable conditions. According to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), even under current levels of warming 3.5 billion people are highly vulnerable to climate impacts and half the world’s population suffers severe water shortages at some point each year. Today, one in three people are exposed to deadly heat stress (projected to increase to 50 to 75 percent by the end of the century), serious flooding threatens an additional 500,000 people, and up to 1 billion people living on coasts will be exposed to sea level rise-related flooding by 2050. The changing climate drives the spread of diseases in people, crops, livestock and wildlife. Even if warming is held below 2.9 degrees Fahrenheit (1.6 degrees Celsius) by 2100, 8 percent of today’s farmland will be unfit for food production. By 2050, declining food production and nutrient losses are projected to cause severe stunting affecting 1 million children in Africa alone, and 183 million additional people to go hungry.
What if CO2 emissions stopped today? A study offers answers - Over the years, scientists have raised a key question about future climate change: When, exactly, does the warming stop? Do temperatures stop rising as soon as people cease emitting greenhouse gases? Or is some level of future warming already guaranteed, or “locked in,” by our past emissions? Recent studies generally suggest good news on that front. The vast majority of future warming depends on future emissions. There shouldn’t be much future warming locked in from the past. Now, a new study suggests that’s mostly true — but with some caveats. It’s important to look at all kinds of human emissions in the atmosphere, the research suggests, not just the main greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide. When accounting for all of them, there may be a brief give-and-take before global temperatures finally stabilize. Global temperatures could continue to rise for a few years, or a few decades, after all emissions stop, and then they may fall back down again as the climate system stabilizes. That means past a certain point, the world may not be able to avoid temporarily overshooting the Paris Agreement’s temperature targets. In fact, the study suggests that even if all emissions halted today, the planet would still have around a 42 percent chance of overshooting the target of 1.5 degrees Celsius, even if temperatures later dropped back below it. The study, released yesterday in the journal Nature Climate Change, used a specialized model to investigate how the Earth’s climate system would respond if emissions were to suddenly stop. The study looked at a range of possible future climate scenarios assuming different levels of emissions, some higher, some lower. For each possible scenario, the researchers examined a series of hypothetical stop dates — the point at which emissions suddenly vanish — between now and 2080. Certain types of air pollution associated with the burning of fossil fuels are highly reflective and help beam sunlight away from the Earth, slightly cooling the climate. If the planet stops burning fossil fuels, some of these pollutants will also disappear, taking their small masking effect with them. In the short term, the researchers suggest, this means that global temperatures may actually rise slightly for a few years after all emissions halt. If emissions suddenly stopped today, for instance, the study suggests that the planet may continue to warm by a few tenths of a degree for several years.
Coastal Cities Are Already Sinking - In the next few years, Indonesia will start moving its capital city from one island, Java, to another, Kalimantan, the Indonesian part of Borneo. There are a few reasons for the move, but one of the biggest is that the country’s current capital, Jakarta, is sinking at an alarming rate. By the middle of this century,one-third of the city will be underwater.It would be easy to mistake Jakarta’s pending demise as the work of sea level rise. Yet the city’s decline is actually being driven by another force—land subsidence spurred by groundwater extraction. Projections of sea level rise have put a countdown on several coastal cities. Buta new study shows that the combination of coastal subsidence and sea level rise acts like a welcome mat for water. Using satellite data, the researchers measured subsidence rates in 99 coastal cities around the world. They found that most are sinking faster than sea levels are rising. In many cities, such as Manila in the Philippines, Tampa in Florida, and Alexandria in Egypt, this means coastal flooding will become an issue much sooner than predicted by models of sea level rise alone.The worst affected cities are all in Asia. These cities, including Chattogram in Bangladesh, Semarang in Indonesia, and Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam, have areas with subsidence rates of more than 20 millimeters per year, which is 10 times higher than the global mean sea level rise of two millimeters per year. In one-third of the 99 cities studied, however, at least part of the city is sinking by 10 millimeters or more per year. “A lot of cities are planning for sea level rise, but they are not aware of the compounding effect of coastal subsidence,” says Meng (Matt) Wei, an oceanographer at the University of Rhode Island and one of the study’s authors. For instance, he has not seen any reports of subsidence in Barcelona, Spain, but found that the airport, the port, and a residential area are all sinking faster than the sea is rising. To see where subsidence is most likely to cause imminent coastal flooding, particularly from storm surges, the researchers focused in on rapidly sinking areas that are also low lying. They found four cities with more than 1,000 square kilometers of land below 10 meters elevation that is sinking quickly. These four subsidence hotspots—Shanghai and Tianjin in China, Hanoi in Vietnam, and Bangkok in Thailand—are all in Asia, but they also found a further 18 cities throughout the world with between 100 and 1,000 square kilometers of fast-subsiding, low-elevation area.There is hope, though. Around 60 years ago, parts of California were sinking fast, but that subsidence was largely curtailed through changes in groundwater management. And even Jakarta’s subsidence has been cut significantly in the past 20 years, from 280 millimeters per year to 35, though it’s still not enough to save the city.“In Tokyo, they have had enormous problems with subsidence, but they have basically changed their complete water extraction for the city and the subsidence stopped,” says Roderik van de Wal, an expert in sea level change at Utrecht University in the Netherlands who was not involved in the research. He says that while subsidence is an urgent issue, local measures can be effective—unlike with sea level rise, which requires global action on climate change.
Train threatened by rising seas could be saved with a wall - -- California officials will decide today whether to approve construction of a seawall to prevent the rising ocean from destroying a crumbling cliff that supports tracks for one of the nation’s busiest Amtrak lines. The vote thrusts the California Coastal Commission into a debate over how to protect the railway carrying 50 trains a day from the effects of climate change. Other proposed solutions include stabilizing the bluff with steel pillars. There’s also a plan to relocate the tracks, a major undertaking that’s estimated to cost billions of dollars. Agency staff have recommended building the seawall at the bottom of a bluff near Del Mar, a beach town where multimillion-dollar houses are threatened by erosion 19 miles north of San Diego. “The railroad runs atop coastal bluffs which are generally 50 to 70 feet high and have a history of landslides and slope failure,” said a report by Coastal Commission staff. “The proposed project would stabilize areas along the bluffs.” California’s move to protect transportation infrastructure from the immediate effects of climate change comes as roadways, coastlines and residential property around the country face growing risks from intensifying storms, heavier downpours and penetrating ocean waters. The Government Accountability Office warned in a report last month that ballooning disaster costs related to climate change are creating an “unsustainable fiscal future.” The federal government alone owns and operates “hundreds of thousands of facilities” and manages millions of acres of land “that might be vulnerable to climate change,” the GAO said (Climatewire, May 10). The debate over the seawall comes as California officials wrestle with how to save the state’s iconic beaches. A U.S. Geological Survey study in 2017 said rising seawater could destroy two-thirds of all beaches in Southern California if steps aren’t taken to reduce carbon emissions or adapt to higher oceans. Already, homes have toppled off cliffs in Pacifica, along bluffs near San Francisco and in Sonoma County. In other beach cities, seawater floods the streets during the highest tides.
'The inevitable': People living on the coast could be forced to move due to climate change, UK warns --The chief executive of the U.K.'s Environment Agency has issued a stark warning to coastal communities, acknowledging that the effects of climate change will force people — both in the U.K. and abroad — to relocate due to rising sea levels and coastal erosion. Referring to what he described as the "hardest of all the inconvenient truths," James Bevan said that in the long term, climate change meant "some of our communities, both in this country and around the world, cannot stay where they are." "That's because while we can come back safely and build back better after most river flooding, there is no coming back for land that coastal erosion has simply taken away or which a rising sea level has put permanently, or frequently, underwater," he said. Rising sea levels pose a threat to many coastal communities around the world, including island nations in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. In a speech at the COP26 climate change summit last year, the President of the Maldives sought to highlight the peril facing his country, an archipelago made up of 1,192 islands. "Our islands are slowly being inundated by the sea, one by one," Ibrahim Mohamed Solih said. "If we do not reverse this trend, the Maldives will cease to exist by the end of this century." Meanwhile, in the U.S., the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration warned in February that sea levels along the country's coastlines are expected to rise by, on average, around one foot by 2050. That's as much as the rise measured over the last 100 years.
‘Slow-walked or watered down’: Friendly fire strafes Biden’s climate office - The collapse of President Joe Biden’s legislative agenda is drawing new scrutiny to the White House’s efforts to confront global warming — and Democrats’ complaints that his own Climate Policy Office is getting in the way. The office headed by domestic climate policy chief Gina McCarthy has held up progress on multiple fronts, nine Democrats inside and outside the administration told POLITICO — accusing it of too often placing political considerations and relations with Congress ahead of weaning the nation off fossil fuels. The office’s micromanaging of other government bodies has weakened the Interior Department’s efforts to rein in oil and gas leases on federal lands, stalled a redo of federal ethanol policies and slowed White House efforts to address pollution in low-income and minority communities, said the Democrats, who include congressional staff and current or former Biden administration officials. They were granted anonymity to discuss politically sensitive issues. In some cases, they said, McCarthy’s office appears to be avoiding court fights or potential disruptions of negotiations with lawmakers such as Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.). And that’s preventing regulators such as the Environmental Protection Agency from doing their jobs, the critics said. “Instead of letting them do the business of writing rules, proposing them and publishing them, [the climate office] at their discretion will pull everything back and ask questions and delay,” one administration official said. The criticism comes at a delicate moment for Biden, who came into office calling climate change one of the “four crises” facing the U.S., and who promised to put people to work upgrading the power grid with renewable energy and making millions of electric vehicles while cleaning up heavily polluted areas. Now, spiking gasoline prices and Russia’s war in Ukraine have forced the White House to devote efforts to boosting fossil fuel supplies at home and in Europe. Meanwhile, recent news reports indicate that McCarthy may be close to stepping down.
How your electric bill is funding anti-climate lobbying - A typical electricity bill leaves the customer with the sense that she knows exactly what she’s paying for. It might show how many kilowatts of power her household has used, the costs of generating that electricity and delivering it, and the amount that goes to taxes. But these bills can hide as much as they reveal: They don’t indicate how much of the customer’s money is being used to build new power plants, for example, or to pay the CEO’s salary. They also don’t show how much of the bill goes toward political activity — things like lobbying expenses, or litigation against pollution controls. Most U.S. utility bills also fail to specify that they’re collecting dues payments for trade associations. These organizations try to shape laws in electric and gas companies’ favor, in addition to more quotidian functions like coordinating regulatory compliance. On any given billing statement, these charges may only add up to pennies. By collecting them from tens of millions of households, however, trade associations have built up enormous budgets that translate to powerful political operations.The Edison Electric Institute, an association that counts all of the country’s investor-owned electric utilities as its members, is the power industry’s main representative before Congress. With an annual budget of over $90 million, Edison is perhaps the largest beneficiary of the dues-collection baked into utility bills. In recent years, it’s attracted attention for its national campaign against rooftop solar panels, and for its role in the legal fight against the Obama administration’s Clean Power Plan.Within the next year or two, however, this financial model could come to an end. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, or FERC, the top government agency overseeing the utility industry, is considering a rule change that would make it harder for companies to recover these costs. While utilities are already nominally barred from passing lobbying costs along to their customers, consumer advocates and environmental groups argue that much trade association activity that isn’t technically “lobbying” under the IRS’s definition is still political in nature — and that households are being unfairly charged for it.
An Emerging Australia-Japan Hydrogen Supply Chain – On May 24, a Quad leaders’ meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, was held in Tokyo. The four leaders discussed regional and global issues in the Indo-Pacific, including the influence of the Russia-Ukraine War on the region as well as the importance of common energy supply chains.The meeting produced a joint statement that included a variety of fields for quadrilateral cooperation, such as international security, global health security, infrastructure, climate, and energy. The four countries agreed on the significance of “clean energy cooperation” in “clean hydrogen” while welcoming the contribution of the Sydney Energy Forum as well as the new Australian government’s commitment to climate change. Indeed, the newly elected Australian prime minister stated that Australia could become a “renewable energy superpower.”Prior to the Quad meeting, Japan and Australia had already cooperated in the field of clean energy, especially the creation of a clean hydrogen supply chain in the Indo-Pacific region. On April 9, a consortium of Japanese companies, including Kawasaki Heavy Industries, J-Power, Iwatani Corporation, Marubeni Corporation, Sumitomo Corporation, and Australia’s AGL Energy, held aceremony to celebrate their success in a pilot project to transport hydrogen from Australia to Japan by the world’s first liquefied hydrogen tanker, “Suiso Frontier.” In the ceremony, Kishida mentioned that Japan has explored stable energy procurement in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine War and said that hydrogen is a key to Japan’s energy security and stable energy procurement toward carbon-neutral goals. The Japanese government announced a “Basic Hydrogen Strategy” in 2017 which aimed at establishing a “world-leading hydrogen-based society” in pursuit of carbon-neutrality goals. The strategy stressed that Japan would establish basic technologies with Australia for the development and demonstration of a “liquefied hydrogen supply chain” paving the way for commercialization. Regarding the world’s first attempt for maritime transportation of liquefied hydrogen, the document emphasized that Japan would develop and demonstrate a liquefied hydrogen carrier ship for the Australia-Japan liquefied hydrogen supply chain project. Based on this strategy, Suiso Frontier was developed in Japan, departed from the port of Kobe on December 24, 2021 and arrived in Port Hastings in Victoria, Australia on January 20 of this year. The vessel returned safely to Kobe on February 25. Prior to the success of liquefied hydrogen transportation as a A$500 million pilot projectbacked by the Japanese and Australian governments, both Tokyo and Canberra have made several arrangements and statements regarding bilateral renewable energy cooperation. On June 13, 2021, Japan and Australia agreed to cooperate for facilitating carbon-neutral goals of the Paris Agreement by announcing the “Japan-Australia Partnership on Decarbonization through Technology” recalling and building on other initiatives and statements, such as the “Hydrogen Energy Supply Chain” (HESC), the “Japan-Australia Energy and Resources Dialogue” (JAERD), and the “Australia-Japan Joint Statement of Cooperation on Hydrogen and Fuel Cells.”
Biden Mandates More Ethanol In Gasoline, Expect Many Negative Repercussions The EPA, after gathering comments since releasing it proposed blending requirements in December, said Friday it will require refiners to blend 20.77 billion gallons of ethanol, biodiesel and other renewable fuel this year.Additionally, the oil industry must blend 250 million more gallons of renewable fuel, both this year and next, after a federal court found the Obama administration inappropriately reduced the 2016 blending requirements.The agency also denied roughly 70 exemptions for small refineries, many of which had been granted under former President Donald Trump.“The Biden EPA is to be commended for restoring sanity to the refinery exemption program,” Monte Shaw, the Iowa Renewable Fuel Association's executive director, said in a statement. “These exemptions have never been justified and were simply being used to illegally undermine the RFS. We are grateful this long nightmare is over.”But Chet Thompson, CEO of the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, said the blending requirement for this year is "contrary to the administration’s claims to be doing everything in their power to provide relief to consumers.""Unachievable mandates will needlessly raise fuel production costs and further threaten the viability of U.S. small refineries, both at the expense of consumers," Thompson said.
EPA Trims Ethanol Fuel Mandate for 2020-21 But Raises It for 2022 - The Biden administration on Friday retroactively reduced the amount of ethanol that must be blended into gasoline for 2020 and 2021 but raised the level for 2022, saying the changes are aimed at helping boost domestic fuel supplies.The agency can adjust these requirements retroactively, signaling to refiners how much they will have to spend to buy market credits that help them comply with obligations lingering from past years.Both ethanol and corn prices have risen sharply, and cutting the 2022 mandate potentially could have lowered refiners’ business costs and led to lower prices at the pump, but likely by only a few cents a gallon, said analysts at research and consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group LLC.“Millions of acres are being pointlessly sacrificed just to grow corn to fuel gas-guzzling SUVs,” said Brett Hartl, government affairs director at the Center for Biological Diversity. “Meanwhile the EPA looks the other way as our ocean dead zones grow, water pollution worsens, and endangered species suffer.”Expanded ethanol production under federal mandates raised corn prices by 30% and the prices of other crops by 20%, according to a report published earlier this year in the National Academy of Sciences. The report also said growing more corn for ethanol led to increased amounts of water pollutants from U.S. farms and negated ethanol’s climate benefits.
US Boosts Biofuel Quotas Due To Rising Gasoline Prices - The US is ordering refiners to boost the use of biofuels such as corn-based ethanol, as the Biden administration tries to strike a balance between competing political and economic pressures while gasoline prices soar. The US Environmental Protection Agency is requiring refiners to mix 20.63 billion gallons of renewable fuels into gasoline and diesel this year -- a 9.5% increase over last year’s target. In a final rule posted online Friday, the agency also said it was retroactively paring the 2020 biofuel-blending quota to 17.13 billion gallons and setting the overall 2021 target at 18.84 billion gallons to reflect actual consumption. The mandates come as President Joe Biden battles record-high gasoline prices, climbing food costs and inflationary pressures that threaten the US economic recovery as well as Democrats’ grip on Congress after the November midterm elections. The EPA said the moves were meant to help put the nation’s Renewable Fuel Standard program into a growth mode and propel market demand for alternatives to petroleum-based gasoline and diesel. “We are laser-focused on providing more options for consumers at the pump, and today we are taking steps to increase the availability of homegrown biofuels,” EPA Administrator Michael S. Regan said in a statement. “Today’s actions will help to reduce our reliance on oil and put the RFS program back on track after years of challenges and mismanagement.” Refiners argued the 2022 target is so ambitious it would also boost industry compliance costs with some of the burden passed on to consumers. Refining advocates and their allies in Congress had unsuccessfully appealed to the administration for a significant reduction, arguing the 2022 target is contingent on promised renewable diesel production coming online and will strain the available pool of tradable credits used to prove quotas have been fulfilled. The 2022 quota “is bewildering and contrary to the administration’s claims to be doing everything in their power to provide relief to consumers,” said Chet Thompson, head of the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers association. “Unachievable mandates will needlessly raise fuel production costs and further threaten the viability of U.S. small refineries, both at the expense of consumers.”
Biden administration invokes Defense Production Act for clean energy - President Biden will shield solar project developers from the costs of potential trade penalties and offer new federal support for domestic panel manufacturing, the White House said Monday.The Biden administration plans to provide a two-year reprieve from panel import tariffs that may stem from an ongoing Commerce Department probe of whether Chinese companies are dodging U.S. penalties.Biden also plans to invoke the Defense Production Act (DPA) to boost the manufacturing of panels and other clean energy equipment in the U.S., senior administration officials told reporters Monday morning. Reuters first reported the upcoming moves and, citing a source familiar with the matter, said the trade effort is designed to "allay companies' concerns about having to hold billions of dollars in reserves to pay potential tariffs." The U.S. solar industry and analysts say the months-long Commerce investigation has slowed the pace of U.S. projects, calling it a hurdle that adds to supply chain woes and other headwinds.A recent estimate from the consultancy Rystad Energy said 64% of 2022 U.S. solar additions are "in jeopardy," mostly because of the threat of new tariffs. Commerce Department officials have called predictions of potential tariffs far over 200% overblown, with any levies more likely to be an order of magnitude lowerA source familiar with the upcoming announcement said Biden would "take steps to provide U.S. solar deployers the short-term stability they need to build clean energy projects."Biden will invoke the Defense Protection Act for solar panel parts, like photovoltaic modules and module components, heat pumps, electrolyzers, fuel cells and platinum group metals, as well as infrastructure for the power grid, such as transformers, a White House fact sheet states. The Commerce probe will continue, according to a senior administration official. Part of the administration's actions also includes ramping up federal procurement of clean energy, including solar. The Commerce inquiry, initiated by the U.S. manufacturer Auxin Solar, has become a politically delicate problem for the Biden administration.The policy announcement shows how it has reached the top levels of the White House. Officials are trying to accelerate renewable power deployment to meet the White House goal of 100% of U.S. electricity coming from zero-carbon sources by 2035.
U.S. declares national energy emergency - - The United States declared a national energy emergency on June 6, 2022. The emergency – declared to exist with respect to the threats to the availability of sufficient electricity generation capacity to meet expected customer demand – will stay in effect for at least 24 months or until it’s declared terminated, whichever occurs first. “A robust and reliable electric power system is not only a basic human necessity, but is also critical to national security and national defense,” the president said in the declaration.1 “Multiple factors are threatening the ability of the United States to provide sufficient electricity generation to serve expected customer demand.” The declaration continues: These factors include disruptions to energy markets caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and extreme weather events exacerbated by climate change. For example, in parts of the country, drought conditions coupled with heatwaves are simultaneously causing projected electricity supply shortfalls and record electricity demand. As a result, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation have both warned of near-term electricity reliability concerns in their recent summer reliability assessments. In order to ensure electric resource adequacy, utilities and grid operators must engage in advance planning to build new capacity now to serve expected customer demand. ... Utilities and grid operators are increasingly relying on new solar installations to ensure that there are sufficient resources on the grid to maintain reliable service. Additions of solar capacity and batteries were expected to account for over half of new electric sector capacity in 2022 and 2023. The unavailability of solar cells and modules jeopardizes those planned additions, which in turn threatens the availability of sufficient electricity generation capacity to serve expected customer demand. Electricity produced through solar energy is also critical to reducing our dependence on electricity produced by the burning of fossil fuels, which drives climate change. The Department of Defense has recognized climate change as a threat to our national security. In recent years, the vast majority of solar modules installed in the United States were imported, with those from Southeast Asia making up approximately three-quarters of imported modules in 2020. Recently, however, the United States has been unable to import solar modules in sufficient quantities to ensure solar capacity additions necessary to achieve our climate and clean energy goals, ensure electricity grid resource adequacy, and help combat rising energy prices. This acute shortage of solar modules and module components has abruptly put at risk near-term solar capacity additions that could otherwise have the potential to help ensure the sufficiency of electricity generation to meet customer demand. Roughly half of the domestic deployment of solar modules that had been anticipated over the next year is currently in jeopardy as a result of insufficient supply. Across the country, solar projects are being postponed or canceled. The Federal Government is working with the private sector to promote the expansion of domestic solar manufacturing capacity, including our capacity to manufacture modules and other inputs in the solar supply chain, but building that capacity will take time. Immediate action is needed to ensure in the interim that the United States has access to a sufficient supply of solar modules to assist in meeting our electricity generation needs. … “The President has declared an emergency with respect to the inadequate supply of solar cells and modules,” Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Enforcement and Compliance Lisa Wang said in a statement.2“Pursuant to the President’s Proclamation, the Department of Commerce will issue regulations to temporarily permit for up to 24 months duty-free access to solar cells and modules from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. “We will continue to rigorously enforce U.S. trade laws, hold our trading partners accountable, and defend U.S. industries and workers from unfair imports.”
Biden To Usher In Cheap Chinese Panels With Solar Power Shake Up --Mixed response to President yesterday Joe Biden’s move To impose a two-year moratorium on the imposition of additional duty and duty on imported Chinese solar panels. The Commerce Department was investigating allegations of dumping and slave labor by Chinese manufacturers. The administration rationalized the construction of a two-year “safe harbor” for Chinese panels as a “bridge” to help build stalled US solar power projects.Naturally, American manufacturers were unhappy that the president was introducing unwanted competition from questionable players. California-based Auxin Solar criticized Biden for interfering with the Commerce Department’s “quasi-judicial” process. While Arizona-based First SolarFSLR said Biden’s move undermined the domestic photovoltaic panel industry. According to First Solar VP Samantha Sloan, Biden’s move “sends the message that companies can bypass US laws and the US government will let them get away with it.” The move was an “ineffective use of taxpayer dollars,” Sloan wrote in a statement, which “falls far short of a sustainable solar industrial policy.” “If the administration had consulted with US solar manufacturers, they would have known as much.”Biden has previously used his emergency powers to invoke the Defense Production Act to support not only domestic production of solar, but also electric heat pumps (to help replace furnaces that burn oil and gas). Seeked to balance the impact on the choice of solar. As well as the electrolyzer (to form hydrogen) and platinum group metals needed for emissions control and catalytic converters. Naturally, solar installation companies don’t mind. They want to attract new customers with cheaper, more abundant panels. John Berger, CEO of publicly traded Sunnova, applauded the move. “The two-year moratorium is a big step in the right direction,” Berger said in a phone interview. “Tariffs not only hurt the US economy and consumer, but they also stifle innovation and competition in the market.” Berger insists that Sunnova and its allies perform due diligence on Chinese suppliers to ensure that their panels or components are not made from Uighur slave labor from China’s Xinjiang region. “We don’t want something we’re not proud to install. The solar industry has done more than any other to make sure we investigate that problem.” Berger says he would love to see additional help in the form of renewal of federal investment tax credits on solar projects. Shares of Sunnova climbed 10% on the news.There’s enough irony here, says Frank Massano, a policy strategist at the law firm Bracewell. “At the heart of the solar tariff case is the idea that China and Southeast Asian states subsidize solar. Well, the Defense Production Act package does the same thing,” James Taylor, president of the Heartland Institute think tank, said in a statement Monday. It would be difficult for the US to subsidize China. “There is little the Biden administration can do to make US solar panels economically competitive with China,” which is “one of the few countries that require solar panels.” Will endure the environmental devastation of rare-earth mineral production.”
Biden to waive tariffs for 24 months on solar panels hit by probe -President Joe Biden will declare a 24-month tariff exemption on Monday for solar panels from four Southeast Asian nations after an investigation froze imports and stalled projects in the United States, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.The move comes amid concern about the impact of the Commerce Department's months-long investigation into whether imports of solar panels from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam are circumventing tariffs on goods made in China.Biden's action would allay companies' concerns about having to hold billions of dollars in reserves to pay potential tariffs, one source familiar with the White House's plans said."
Shell launches renewable power brand in Texas -- Global oil major Shell on Tuesday said it is entering the residential electricity market in Texas, offering renewable power under a new branch of the company. The launch of Shell Energy Solutions marks The Hague-based company's entry into the U.S. power market, with perks for electric vehicle drivers and homeowners with solar panels. The move is the latest step by the oil giant to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 and reposition itself as a broader energy provider as the world transitions to cleaner fuels. It follows an announcement last week that it had bought Houston-based gas station and convenience store chain Landmark to provide charging stations and alternative motor fuels in the future.Shell previously acquired The Woodlands-based MP2 Energy, a power retailer with 33,000 customers that will now carry the Shell Energy Solutions brand.
New details on ComEd bribery probe centered on former Speaker Michael Madigan -- Newly unsealed search warrants in the Commonwealth Edison bribery probe centered on former House Speaker Michael Madigan provide the greatest detail yet about an alleged behind-the-scenes effort to kill an energy bill supported by Madigan’s daughter Lisa, the then-Illinois attorney general. “We got — we’ve gotta kill it. Period,” Madigan’s longtime confidant Michael McClain allegedly told ComEd CEO Anne Pramaggiore in a recorded call in May 2018. “The problem is, any day now, the budget is gonna suck all the oxygen out of the building ... and the members won’t be paying any attention to our lobbyists ... and Lisa Madigan’s gonna walk in and say, ‘This is my legacy legislation, please vote for me.’ " The conversation was detailed in an FBI affidavit filed in January 2019 in support of a search warrant for the City Club of Chicago headquarters on North Michigan Avenue.
DOE aims to decarbonize heavy industry with $8B hydrogen hub project The Department of Energy outlined its high-level vision for the creation of a series of “hydrogen hubs,” which will receive a total of $8 billion over five years through the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill, in a Notice of Intent, or NOI, released Monday.. Jobs, equity and technological diversity will be the focus of the hydrogen hub initiative, according to the NOI, which encourages prospective applications to reach out to disadvantaged communities and find ways to differentiate themselves. Advocates and analysts were generally encouraged by the notice’s focus on using hydrogen to decarbonize hard-to-abate industrial sectors, but expressed ongoing concern that hydrogen from fossil fuels and other “misguided projects” could distract from long-term climate goals. Industries and communities interested in securing a chunk of the $8 billion in federal funding up for grabs for hydrogen development projects got their first glimpse of what it will take to write a winning application with Monday’s release of a notice describing the DOE’s intended selection criteria. Although the details could be subject to change, the notice of intent indicates the DOE currently plans to designate 6-10 hydrogen hubs around the country, with each receiving up to $1-1.25 billion in federal funding. Preference will be given to teams that are led by a single entity, but include “numerous key partners or sub recipients that will bring together diverse technologies.” Diversity of technology is a theme throughout the notice, with DOE indicating it plans to select at least one hub focused on the production of hydrogen derived from fossil fuels, one focused on renewable energy and one focused on nuclear energy. The DOE also wants to see demonstrations of a variety of potential end-use applications, such as industry and transportation, and puts an emphasis on geographic diversity as well. Some of those interested in filing an application expressed enthusiasm at the release of the criteria, believing the notice, combined with their own work to date, would allow them to expedite the process of becoming industry leaders. The Sierra Club, while focused on electrification, also expressed hope the hydrogen hub initiative would concentrate on industrial emissions. “Federal investments in hydrogen should focus on hard to abate uses such as industrial processes and certain transportation applications,” said Bill Corcoran, director of the Sierra Club’s Beyond Coal campaign. But he said funding projects such as hydrogen derived from fossil fuels "distracts from the important role hydrogen can play."
Federal mine safety agency to increase silica dust inspections - The U.S. Mine Safety and Health Administration announced it’s going to start cracking down on coal mines that expose workers to harmful levels of silica dust. It also seeks to educate miners about their rights — known as “Part 90 rights” — to a safe workplace.For decades, researchers, mine safety advocates and the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, have asserted links between silica dust and the advanced stage of deadly black lung disease.But in April, a new study confirmed a definitive connection, prompting advocates to renew their calls for action.Chris Williamson, the new assistant secretary for the agency, says MSHA has the ammunition it needs to make changes.“We’re in the middle of rulemaking, to promulgate a health standard that will be an improvement for all miners related to silica exposure,” Williamson said. “But that doesn’t mean that there aren’t things that we can do now, given our existing authorities.”The mine safety agency is effectively putting operators on notice, saying it will increase inspections at mines with repeat offenses.Williamson says MSHA could freeze operations at mines if miners continue to be exposed to excessive and dangerous amounts of silica dust “I have seen too many miners, there’s too much evidence out there,” he said. “I’m not going to sit back. We’re going to take action and that’s what this initiative is about.”
KenGen To Provide Geothermal Energy To Bitcoin Miners In Kenya - Bitcoin Magazine - Kenya’s largest producer of electricity intends to deliver excess geothermal energy to bitcoin miners. Geothermal energy in the region is estimated to be above 14,000 MW with 10,000 MW located along the Rift Valley circuit. Over 80% of KenGen’s power is renewable energy, but it does not openly disclose excess capacity. KenGen (Kenya Electricity Generating Company PLC), the leading supplier of electricity in Kenya, wants to provide excess geothermal power to bitcoin mining companies, according to a report from Quartz Africa. “We have the space and the power is near, which helps with stability,'' KenGen's geothermal development director, Peketsa Mwangi reportedly explained in an interview. Kenya is the top producer of geothermal energy in Africa delivering over 14,000 megawatts (MW) of power with the equipment capacity of only 863 MW. Along the Rift Valley circuit alone, an estimated 10,000 MW of geothermal energy lies largely dormant. Miners looking to take advantage of this offering have already approached KenGen to discuss the offer and “Some have requested to start with 20 MW and upscale later,” said Mwangi. Considering there are no bitcoin mining firms currently in Africa, it is reported that those interested in the offering are expected to be mainly from the U.S. or Europe.
NASA launches study seeking clues about UFOs - NASA announced Thursday that it’s launching a scientific study of reported sightings of UFOs, the latest in a wave of federal agencies trying to understand the nature of a series of unidentified aircraft flying in protected airspace in recent years. The goal of the study, which is due to be wrapped up in nine months, is meant to improve aircraft safety while gaining a better overall understanding of the aircraft, which the government refers to as “unmanned aerial phenomena,” or UAPs. “NASA is uniquely positioned to address UAPs,” said Daniel Evans, the agency’s assistant deputy associate administrator for research. “Who other than us can use the power of data and science to look at what’s happening in our skies?” NASA plans to recruit some of the nation’s leading scientists and aeronautics experts to participate in the study. “There are phenomena we don’t understand,” said David Spergal, leader of the study and president of the Simons Foundation, a New York-based academic organization. “How do we start to make progress on a very limited set of observations? We start by trying to figure out what data is out there.” The project is separate from the Pentagon’s effort, which is gathering information from a host of federal intelligence agencies on the phenomena over the past few years. NASA plans to share its findings publicly once the study is complete. “It’s extremely important to us that this remains a fully-transparent, open and therefore unclassified study,” Evans said. “We’re going to have public meetings about this, too.” NASA stressed the project will be conducted no differently than any other scientific investigation the space agency undertakes, and will cost no more than $100,000. The announcement comes amid soaring interest in UFOs by Congress, the administration and the American public. In May, Defense Department officials testified before a House Intelligence subcommittee on the progress of the Pentagon’s Airborne Object Identification and Management Synchronization Group. Scott Bray, deputy director of naval intelligence, testified that the group has received more than 400 UAP reports, noting that the stigma for reporting incidents has been reduced.
Asteroid 2022 KP6 flew past Earth at just 0.05 LD - A newly-discovered asteroid designated 2022 KP6 flew past Earth at a distance of just 0.045 LD / 0.00012 AU (17 426 km / 10 828 miles) at 15:05 UTC on May 25, 2022.This is the 60th known asteroid to fly past Earth within 1 lunar distance since the start of the year and the 2nd closest after 2022 FD1 on March 25 at 0.00010 AU. It is also the 17th closest asteroid flyby on record (since 1900). 2022 KP6 was first observed at Catalina Sky Survey on May 25, on the same day it made its close approach. The object belongs to the Amor group of asteroids and has an estimated diameter between 3.6 and 8 m (11.8 – 26.2 feet).
Reopening of Valley injection well under deep scrutiny - Youngstown Vindicator-— AWMS Water Solutions of Howland, the company that owns two oil and gas wastewater injection wells along state Route 169 in Weathersfield Township just north of Niles, says the outcome of its case being heard by the Ohio Oil and Gas Commission will set precedent in Ohio for regulations governing seismic activity associated with injection wells. Seismic activity refers to earthquakes produced by injection wells, which inject the wastewater from the oil and gas industry deep underground as a means of disposal. The Ohio Oil and Gas Commission is reviewing the parameters set by the Ohio Department of Natural Resources under which the injection well will operate when it reopens. On May 21, 2021, Eric Vendel, chief of the ODNR Division of Oil and Gas Resources, issued orders stating after the AWMS well reopens, it must shut down again if an earthquake of a magnitude 2.1 or greater occurs within a 3-mile radius of the facility, as occurred in 2014 not long after it first opened. “AWMS also shall depressurize and not resume operations until a full evaluation of the data from the seismic event is performed by AWMS,” the orders state. The orders indicate they can be appealed to the Ohio Oil and Gas Commission — which AWMS did. The company’s appeal focuses on the requirement that the well close again if an earthquake of magnitude 2.1 or larger occurs, which AWMS found to be too restrictive. An appeal hearing took place in Columbus in February, and the company and ODNR filed followup briefs in March in which they again debated the parameters under which the well would reopen. The Ohio Oil and Gas Commission continues to review the issues but has not issued a ruling. AWMS Water Solutions, LLC. Is a wholly owned subsidiary of Avalon Holdings Corp. of One American Way in Howland. The AWMS No. 2 well was shut down in September 2014 after it caused multiple earthquakes, including a magnitude 1.7 earthquake July 28, 2014, about two months after the well started operation, and a magnitude 2.1 quake Aug. 31, 2014, according to ODNR. AWMS Water Solutions says ODNR set the level at which the facility would be shut down at 2.1 magnitude “arbitrarily.” The ODNR filing states that it chose 2.1 magnitude because that is the level where an earthquake “may be felt by the community and raise anxiety over safety.” The company’s brief, filed by attorney Matthew Vansuch, cites testimony from the hearing in which ODNR expert witness and consultant Ivan Wong testified that there was “nothing magical” about the 2.1 magnitude level ODNR has selected. Vansuch is also a Howland Township trustee. “None of these levels are going to cause the ground to shake such that there is a concern for persons or property,” Vansuch stated. He added, “Injection wells, blasting and fracking are allowed to occur at levels that cause the ground to shake, as long as they don’t exceed some acceptable level of tolerance,’ Vansuch stated. “Ohio has said it is OK for people to feel those activities without those activities being stopped.”
Upstream Investments in Ohio's Utica Saw Post Covid-19 Rebound Early Last Year - Upstream investments from Ohio’s natural gas and oil producers rebounded at the beginning of last year, making up the lion’s share of the $2.3 billion spent in the Utica Shale in the first six months of 2021. JobsOhio recently released an update to its Shale Investment Dashboard, noting producers spent about $2.2 billion during the first half of last year. It was an around $361 million increase over the last half of 2020. Researchers noted that rising gas and oil prices during the period helped boost royalties paid to the state. Royalties accounted for more than $1 billion of the investments tracked during the period.Cleveland State University’s (CSU) Andrew Thomas, director of the Energy Policy Center in the Maxine Goodman Levin College of Urban Affairs, said Covid-19 and the impact on gas prices still represented “significant challenges to the industry” during the study period.“Even so, total investment, including midstream and downstream, was only down 4% from the second half of 2020,” Thomas said. “We anticipate that our next reports will show a marked increase in total investment.”Drilling data from the Ohio Department of Natural Resources Division of Oil and Gas (ODNR) showed 74 wells were drilled between January and June 2021. The total was six fewer than were drilled in the second half of 2020. The total volume of gas-equivalent shale production in the first half of last year was 7% less than in the second half of 2020.Ascent Resources Utica Holdings LLC was the top producer during the six month period, with 389 Bcf. It was followed by Encino Energy LLC with 196 Bcf and Gulfport Energy Corp. at 173 Bcf. The top six producers during the first half of last year made up around 89% of the total production, according to ODNR data.The June update is the 11th report CSU has prepared for Ohio’s economic development corporation on Utica investments. Each report compares upstream, midstream and downstream investments during a six-month period. Together with previous investment to date, cumulative oil and gasinvestment in Ohio through June 2021 was estimated to be around $95.3 billion. Upstream accounted for $65.9 billion, with $21.4 billion from midstream and $8 billion in downstream industries.Midstream investment took a significant dip compared to the second half of 2020. The first six months of last year were absent any pipeline or processing capacity developments, with researchers citing continued Covid-19 impacts. The report noted $29.1 million spent on gathering system buildout for pipelines and $13.8 million on compression systems.Researchers wrote that the impacts to midstream investment could likely change within the next two reports with “rising commodity prices approaching 10-year highs” that will likely “put upward pressure on investment spending across all natural gas segments.”In downstream developments, two compressed natural gas refueling stations with a combined investment total of $31.3 million were installed by transit agencies in Cleveland and Columbus. Additional capacity was added at the Marathon Petroleum Corp. refinery in Canton, OH, totaling an estimated $15.8 million.
Utica Shale graduates largest class — The Utica Shale Academy graduated its largest class to date with more than 40 seniors receiving their diploma on May 31. Forty-two new alumni turned their tassels after gaining certifications for the workplace during dinner and a ceremony at Southern Local High School, which sponsors the academy. More than 250 people attended the event including family members and school leaders. USA Superintendent Bill Watson said class members impressed him by earning nearly double the credits in only one year as well as many certificates to get them ready to work. “We have a group of 15 graduates that have completed 10 or more credits in one year, on average 21.5 industry credential points instead of 12 needed for graduation, which is almost double,” he said. “This is also the first senior class to utilize work-based learning. They get credits to utilize their skills at work.” Instructor Nick Woods said the graduates gained 250 industry-recognized credentials through the NC3 program while all 83 students in the academy yielded a total of 870 credentials.
In Ohio, researchers find EPA data doesn’t tell the whole story on fracking pollution - -- A recent study in a heavily fracked Ohio county found that regional air quality monitors failed to capture variations in pollution at the local level, spotlighting the need to address gaps in data on fossil fuel emissions. Existing Environmental Protection Agency monitors track broad regional trends in air quality. But they don’t reflect differences from place to place within an area. And their reporting often misses short-term spikes that can affect human health, said lead study author Garima Raheja at Columbia University.“Health is not a broad regional effect,” Raheja said. Health impacts from pollution often depend on more local conditions and can vary “day to day, hour to hour,” she noted. The project began when co-author Leatra Harper at the FreshWater Accountability Project and others asked the American Geophysical Union’s Thriving Earth Exchange for help in establishing current baseline emissions for the area. The program connected them to Raheja and other scientists. In addition to Raheja and Harper, study authors are at the AGU Thriving Earth Exchange, Columbia University, Carnegie Mellon University, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Wayne State University. Additional researchers are at community advocacy organizations, including the FreshWater Accountability Project, FracTracker and the Environmental Health Project. The team developed a grassroots, community-based network of low-cost air monitoring stations. Each monitoring station used PurpleAir monitors. The monitors cost a couple hundred dollars each, compared to up to $100,000 or more for equipment at the regional EPA air monitoring stations, Raheja said. The equipment measures levels of fine particulate matter, or PM. Corrected data from PurpleAir monitors correlate strongly with those from reference-grade monitors,studies have found. Tweaks to the monitors also let the network track levels of volatile organic compounds, or VOCs. And community members kept logs about physical symptoms or things they noticed in the area. Additionally, the researchers made an inventory of all pollution emissions already permitted for the area. The data let them model how pollution could travel in the area.“We wanted to show what people are actually experiencing,” Raheja said. “And we wanted to show some examples of plumes from different sources.”General trends in emissions levels were similar for the EPA monitoring stations and the local monitors. However, there were substantial variations in the emissions levels recorded by the two types of stations. Those results showed that exposure to pollutants varies throughout the study area. The results also showed multiple cases when spikes in certain emissions tracked closely with log entries about residents’ health symptoms or other events in the area, such as pipeline pigging or compressor station blowdowns. The researchers’ study was in the journal Environmental Research Letters on May 25. Belmont County had more than 700 oil and gas wells completed from 2011 through 2021, state records show. Most of those wells were drilled into the Utica Shale to produce wet gas. It includes methane along with other petroleum compounds. Fugitive methane emissions are a potent greenhouse gas. Other emissions from the oil and gas industry fall into the category of air toxics or produce ground-level ozone, which irritates the lungs. A variety of health impacts can result from both chronic, long-term pollution and from shorter-term spikes in emissions.“We’re seeing some of those health impacts already with the oil and gas industry,” Harper said. Several studies have shown health impacts among people living near fracked, horizontal wells. And people in the area have reported anecdotal symptoms, she said.“We really need to establish accountability for the polluters,” Harper said. Regulatory authorities often come out too late to detect emission spikes that have happened on nights or weekends. Or, regulators have been dismissive about residents’ concerns when they lacked data on local emissions levels, she said.
Ohio Utica Shale Dashboard Shows 73% of New Drilling Done by 2 Cos. - Marcellus Drilling News - On May 24, Cleveland State University researchers quietly published the “Shale Investment Dashboard in Ohio Q1 and Q2 2021” (full copy below). The new report details shale-related investment in Ohio, looking at upstream, midstream, and downstream activities. The investment estimates are from January through June of 2021–the first half of last year. The report shows investment in the Ohio Utica continued to increase last year, during the height of the pandemic. It also shows just two companies drilled 73% of Ohio’s new shale wells and 69% of the money invested in drilling new shale wells in the Buckeye State in 1H21. Which two companies? Please Login to view this content.
Is natural gas a clean energy source? This Ohio Congressman thinks so. - There is no doubt that natural gas transformed the U.S. energy landscape in the last decade. Production hit a record high again last year. Natural gas replaced coal as the top source of energy for electricity generation.All the while, the industry decreased its greenhouse gas emissions by 12% compared with 1990 levels. Does that make it a clean energy source? Congressman Troy Balderson, of Zanesville, Ohio, and others in the fossil fuels industry think so.Balderson, R-12, introduced a resolution last week to the U.S. House of Representatives to recognize American natural gas as a clean and green energy source.“I support the all above approach to meeting our energy needs, but renewables are not yet ready for primetime,” Balderson said. “We must reject the false notion that a cleaner environment can only be achieved at the peril of the United States energy security and its independence. Natural gas is a key to our path to the American energy independence.”He announced the resolution at a Knox Energy well pad in Licking County, Ohio on June 1, alongside energy industry officials, including those from the Ohio Oil and Gas Association, the Ohio Oil and Gas Energy Education Program, the Consumer Energy Alliance and Utica Energy Alliance.The resolution is meant to lump natural gas in with other clean energy sources so that it gets the same preferential treatment Balderson feels the Biden administration is giving to renewable energy.“This administration has made crystal clear that they are unwilling to work with anything that strays from the green agenda,” Balderson said. “So, let’s finally call it what it truly is. Natural gas is both clean and green.” The resolution also encouraged the Biden administration to remove barriers to natural gas production. The resolution was referred both to the Energy and Commerce and Natural Resources committees.
Pitt engineers using membrane distillation to recycle water used in fracking and drilling -As demand for new energy sources grows, the wastewater co-produced alongside oil and gas (produced water) shows no signs of slowing down: The current volume of wastewater—the result of water forced underground to fracture rock and release the deposits—is estimated at 250 million barrels per day, compared to 80 million barrels per day of oil. Engineers at the University of Pittsburgh Swanson School of Engineering are using membrane distillation technology to enable drillers to filter and reuse the produced water in the oil and gas industry, in agriculture, and other beneficial uses. The method is already being tested in Texas, North Dakota, and most recently in New Stanton, Pa. The project is led by Radisav Vidic, professor and chair of the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering. Produced water contains many impurities that prevent its treatment in municipal facilities: it can be eight times saltier than seawater and harbor bacteria, sand, mud, oil and grease, as well as naturally occurring radioactive materials. Current management strategies for produced water include injections into disposal wells; processing to recover more oil from the water; and beneficial reuse after treatment. Injection into a disposal well is the least expensive option and therefore the most common, but it leads to a permanent loss of water from the ecosystem. While drought is less of an issue in Pennsylvania than in other parts of the country where drilling is prevalent, the produced water that is not reused for hydraulic fracturing is transported to Ohio for disposal, adding to environmental concern of fuel usage and emissions in transport, as well as cost.
Gas boom reboot predicted - Scranton Times-Tribune - An area law firm that has built a solid practice representing gas drilling companies in Pennsylvania is predicting a resumption of the gas boom following the COVID-19 slowdown.Pennsylvania is the second highest-producer of natural gas in the country, thanks to the Marcellus shale, where gas companies are employing hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, at well sites in the Northern Tier and in western commonwealth counties.The Myers, Brier & Kelly law firm, of Scranton, represents drilling companies in legal disputes over property and mineral rights, violation allegations and other issues.While the state seemingly has stepped up its oversight of the gas drilling industry, critics say state regulators aren’t doing enough.“There’s a lot of problems out there our government isn’t addressing,” said Scott Cannon, of Action Together NEPA, which advocates for the environment and women’s rights, civil rights and the rights of voters. “Pennsylvania is doing a horrible job of regulating the natural gas industry and addressing and fixing the problems.” Attorney Dan Brier of the firm said Pennsylvania is second behind Texas in production of natural gas.“In the 10 counties where production is the highest (In Pennsylvania), six are in the Northern Tier or Northeastern Pennsylvania,” Brier said.Bradford, Lycoming and Susquehanna counties with their fertile rock formations are driving a huge amount of economic development. .“We’re in and out of the courts in these Northern Tier counties,” Brier said.. “We’ve litigated these cases in most of the state and federal courthouses that are situated where these cases played out.” .. The gas drilling industry has not been without its problems. The 2020 report notes that DEP filed 9,363 compliance violations against drilling companies that year. They include infractions at conventional and unconventional well sites and linear project sites such as pipelines, in addition to well site and administrative issues such as failure to meet reporting requirements. DEP also lists on its website 382 letters to property owners from 2008 to 2022 confirming their wells were contaminated by gas drilling activities. The owners whose wells had not returned to pre-drilling conditions were told the company responsible would install water treatment equipment, according to the letters.Brier said three counties on this side of the state are in the top five of natural gas production. Susquehanna County is number one, Bradford is third and Lycoming is fifth. Wyoming, Tioga and Sullivan counties are sixth, seventh and 10th, respectively. “Susquehanna, Washington, Bradford, Greene and Lycoming are the top five and account for 76 percent of the production of natural gas statewide,” Brier said. The drilling areas have narrowed over time, but 36 out of the 67 counties have at least one producing well, Thatcher said. He said there still is a high demand for natural gas, not only in the United States, but internationally. “My sense is it’s going to be a primary economic driver in Northeastern Pennsylvania for decades,” Brier said.
Mountain Valley Pipeline seeks new panel for challenges - The Washington Post -A company building a natural gas pipeline in Virginia and West Virginia is seeking a new panel of judges to hear the next round in its legal battle with environmentalists. Mountain Valley Pipeline filed a motion last month requesting the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals to assign a new panel at random, The Roanoke Times reported. The 303-mile (487-kilometer) pipeline, which is mostly finished, would transport natural gas drilled from the Marcellus and Utica shale formations through West Virginia and Virginia. Legal battles have delayed completion by nearly four years and doubled the pipeline’s cost, now estimated at $6.6 billion. The company argues that the three-judge panel that has presided over 12 challenges of government approvals for it and the now-defunct Atlantic Coast Pipeline has vacated or stayed all but two of the permits. It argues that effectively killed the Atlantic Coast project and threatening to do the same for Mountain Valley. Advertisement “The perception created by this Court’s deliberate formation of a special ‘pipeline panel’ – actually a ‘Mountain Valley panel’ – threatens public confidence in the Court’s legitimacy,” the motion states. Three-member panels are randomly assigned for incoming cases, but rules sometimes allow for the same judges to remain with a case when it comes up again. However, the company asserts that the Fourth Circuit didn’t follow its internal operating procedures. The rule states, in part: “Every effort is made to assign cases for oral argument to judges who have had previous involvement with the case” to preside over a motion made before oral arguments or a prior appeal in the matter. Mountain Valley contends that the current cases involve neither a pre-argument motion nor a prior appeal and asks that the court to “correct this departure from its own procedures.” The Sierra Club and other environmental groups, which are contesting the latest permits for water crossings, urged the court not to grant the request. Mountain Valley’s calculations that it won only two of the 12 cases decided by the panel omits most of some half-dozen cases that involved eminent domain, distorting the panel’s record, a motion from the Sierra Club states.
Mountain Valley Pipeline seeks new appellate court panel to hear legal challenges - Unhappy with the way it has been treated by a three-judge panel of an appellate court, Mountain Valley Pipeline is asking for a new slate of judges to hear the next round of its long-running legal battle with environmentalists. In an unusual move, the company building a natural gas pipeline through Southwest Virginia filed a motion last month requesting the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals to assign a new panel at random.Mountain Valley is hoping for better luck than it had with a panel that presided over 12 earlier challenges of government approvals for it and the now-defunct Atlantic Coast Pipeline. Those three judges, it says, vacated or stayed all but two of the permits, effectively killing Atlantic Coast and threatening to do the same for Mountain Valley.“The perception created by this Court’s deliberate formation of a special ‘pipeline panel’ – actually a ‘Mountain Valley panel’ – threatens public confidence in the Court’s legitimacy,” the motion reads. The Richmond-based Fourth Circuit, which consists of 15 active judges and three senior judges to hear appeals from five states, has a computer program that randomly assigns three-member panels for incoming cases.However, the court’s rules allow for the same judges initially appointed at random to remain with a case when it comes up again, under certain circumstances.When the Fourth Circuit was first asked to decide a case involving Mountain Valley – an appeal of a Roanoke judge’s 2017 decision on the company’s powers of eminent domain – the court’s program indiscriminately selected three judges.The luck of the draw went to Chief Judge Roger Gregory and Judges Stephanie Thacker and James Wynn. That led to their assignment to most, but not all, of the future cases in which federal and state permits issued to Mountain Valley were contested repeatedly by environmental groups and local opponents.But the Fourth Circuit did not follow its internal operating procedures, which only allow such assignments in limited cases, Mountain Valley asserts.The rule states, in part: “Every effort is made to assign cases for oral argument to judges who have had previous involvement with the case” to preside over a motion made before oral arguments or a prior appeal in the matter.Mountain Valley contends that the current cases – which involve petitions from environmental groups seeking the reversal of approvals for the 303-mile pipeline to cross streams and wetlands in Virginia and West Virginia – involve neither a pre-argument motion nor a prior appeal.The company “therefore respectfully asks the Court to correct this departure from its own procedures,” George Sibley, a Richmond attorney who represents Mountain Valley, wrote in court papers.The Sierra Club and other environmental groups, which are contesting the latest permits for water crossings, urged the court not to grant Mountain Valley’s request.“The crux of MVP’s motion is that MVP has grown dissatisfied with that i nitial assignment because it has lost more often than it thinks it should have,”
U.S. Coast Guard responding to 5,300-gallon oil spill in St. Marys River -– U.S. Coast Guard crews are responding to an oil spill in a river near the Soo Locks in the Upper Peninsula.The 5,300-glallon spill originated from Algoma Steel in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario around 10:30 a.m. on Thursday. Oil was spilling into the St. Marys River, officials said.The 74.5-mile river connects Lake Superior and Lake Huron and serves as a border between Michigan and Ontario, Canada.Initial Coast Guard estimates show a sheen that covers an area from the steel mill to the north side of Sugar Island. No injuries have been reported and the river has since reopened for commercial traffic, the Coast Guard said.“We’re working in lock-step with our Canadian, American, and tribal partners to ensure the sanctity of our river,” Captain Anthony Jones, Commander, Sector Sault Ste. Marie said.Coast Guard pollution responders are monitoring the situation and will coordinate the containment with environmental clean-up organizations.“A quantity of oil left our site early this morning and entered the adjacent waterway. The source of the spill has been safely contained,” Brenda Stenta, manager of communications and branding for the steel company, said in a statement to CTV.“The Ministry of Environment, Conservation and Parks, the Spills Action Centre, the Canadian Coast Guard, and the City of Sault Ste. Marie have been notified. We are currently coordinating with officials, deploying equipment, resources, and personnel to mitigate any possible impact to the environment.”Sean McBrearty, campaign coordinator for the nonprofit Oil & Water Don’t Mix, heard about the spill while he was at the Michigan Climate & Clean Energy Summit in Traverse City.“It’s terrible to see a large oil spill in a waterway so close to the Great Lakes,” McBrearty said, adding his thoughts go out to the first responders and authorities who are working to contain the spill and handle the cleanup. “This is going to be a big blow to the Great Lakes ecosystem, especially up at the St. Marys River.” And while a 5,000-gallon spill is large, McBrearty said it’s nothing compared to the 23 million gallons of oil that run through Enbridge’s controversial Line 5 pipelines along the bottom of the Straits of Mackinac every day. McBrearty’s group is one of several vocal environmental organizations that have been warning of the dangers of a Line 5 spill for years.
Almost 20,000 litres of oil spilled in the Sault -The U.S. Coast Guard says more than 5,300 gallons – or about 20,000 litres – of oil spilled Thursday in Sault Ste. Marie. Ontario's Ministry of Environment said earlier in the day most of the oil spilled at Algoma Steel fell on the ground, but some also entered the city's wastewater system. The U.S. Coast Guard said in a news release it was notified at 10:30 a.m. of a "5,300-gallon gear oil spill into the St. Marys River. "Initial Coast Guard estimates show a sheen that covers an area from the steel mill all the way to the north side of Sugar Island," the release said. "No injuries or deaths have been reported by Algoma Steel. The Coast Guard is requesting all traffic to stay clear of the impacted area." The Coast Guard said it has established an incident command team to manage the U.S. response efforts. “We’re working in lockstep with our Canadian, American, and tribal partners to ensure the sanctity of our river," Capt. Anthony Jones said in the release. In a statement, Ontario's Ministry of the Environment (MOE) said the substance that spilled into the water was 'Morgoil,' a heavy oil used for lubrication of heavy machinery. MOE is on-site heading up cleanup efforts, the statement said, which are in the early stages. "Most of the oil was spilled to the ground," ministry spokesperson Gary Wheeler said in a statement. "Some of the oil entered the wastewater treatment plant where it was then discharged to the river." Algoma Steel has hired cleanup contractors that have deployed absorbent booms on the river to contain the spill, Wheeler said. "Algoma Steel is using vacuum trucks to remove oil from inside the wastewater treatment plant," he added. The spill prompted a drinking water advisory from Algoma Public Health. Not affected is the municipal water supply from the City of Sault Ste. Marie. "Please be advised that if your drinking water intake is located in the St. Marys River downstream (east) of Algoma Steel Inc. and Great Lakes Power and/or you have a dug a well close to the shoreline, there may be risk of contamination resulting from this spill." The river also shouldn't be used for recreation (swimming, fishing, etc.) Pets and livestock should also not drink from St. Marys. "Do not drink, swim, bathe, or shower with this water," the health unit said. "Use alternative water sources such as bottled water or from the municipal drinking water system."
Oil spill closes shipping on St. Marys River — An oil spill temporarily closed shipping traffic on the St. Marys River between Ontario and Michigan's Upper Peninsula, the U.S. Coast Guard said Thursday. The 5,300-gallon spill originated from Algoma Steel in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario, around 10:30 a.m. Thursday. The 75-mile river connects Lake Superior and Lake Huron and serves as part of the border between Michigan and Ontario. The Coast Guard asked for all traffic to stay away from the affected area. “We’re working in lock-step with our Canadian, American, and tribal partners to ensure the sanctity of our river,” Capt. Anthony Jones, commander of Coast Guard Sector Sault Sainte Marie, Michigan, said in a statement. Coast Guard pollution responders are monitoring the situation and will coordinate the containment with environmental cleanup organizations, MLive.com reported. Algoma spokeswoman Brenda Stenta said in a statement that "the source of the spill has been safely contained.” “The Ministry of Environment, Conservation and Parks, the Spills Action Centre, the Canadian Coast Guard, and the City of Sault Ste. Marie (Ontario) have been notified. We are currently coordinating with officials, deploying equipment, resources, and personnel to mitigate any possible impact to the environment,” Stenta said.
States that outlaw gas bans account for 31% of US residential/commercial gas use - A legislative push to prohibit gas bans in buildings has protected access to natural gas utility service in states that account for almost a third of U.S. natural gas demand in the residential and commercial sectors. The 20 states that passed such legislation have together consumed 30% of residential gas volumes and 33% of commercial gas supplies in 2020, according to analysis of U.S. Energy Information Administration data by S&P Global Commodity Insights. The states' combined residential and commercial gas use was 31% in 2020, the last year for which the EIA data was available. Meanwhile, four states where policymakers have passed measures that restrict building gas use — California, Colorado, New York and Washington — accounted for 24% of the nation's residential gas use and 20% of its commercial gas demand in 2020. Three states where local governments have advanced similar restrictions — Massachusetts, Oregon and Vermont — accounted for nearly 4% of combined U.S. residential and commercial gas use. While these policies stand to curb gas utility customer growth, they do not immediately put existing gas demand at risk. With the exception of Denver's policy, the ordinances and building codes largely restrict gas use in new residential and commercial buildings but do not address retrofits. The residential and commercial sectors accounted for 15% and 11% of total U.S. gas consumption in 2021, according to the EIA. Only Washington has passed statewide all-electric construction requirements. New York policymakers are considering statewide mandates for both new and existing buildings. New York and California were the nation's largest gas consumers in the residential and commercial gas sector. New York City adopted a gas ban in December 2021. More than 50 California towns, cities and counties have passed gas bans or electrification reach codes since 2019.Colorado, Massachusetts and Washington ranked in the top 20 for gas use in both sectors. Several states with policies supportive of building electrification were also large gas consumers. Illinois, the nation's third-biggest residential and commercial gas consumer, passed 2021 climate legislation that allows utilities to promote and offer building electrification to achieve required energy savings. New Jersey ranked in the top 10 for both sectors, but there has been little progress codifying the state's aspirations for "maximum electrification" into law. Maryland, where the legislature recently declared that the state would move toward building electrification, also ranked in the top 20.
Natural Gas Futures Hit 13-Year High As Traders Expect "Blistering Hot Summer" -- Natural gas futures have hit an 13-year high on higher temperatures to come in the next week combined with lower production levels. On Monday, Henry Hub natural gas futures were up nearly 10% at a 13-year high. At 5:00pm EST, Henry Hub prices for July contracts sat at $9.368, up 9.91%. August contracts were at $9.350, up 9.87%. A key reason for the sudden surge is heat, with temperatures expected to rise significantly in the middle part of this month, with production declining and demand threatening to exceed supply. Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) quoted EBW analyst Eli Rubin as saying in a note to clients that a “blistering hot summer” is first and foremost among fears. Rubin said the increasing demand for natural gas for cooling in the coming weeks “could ignite another substantial rally in Nymex futures into mid-summer”. Texas, in particular, is expected to see demand for natural gas soar to a historical record this week–even before the hottest part of summer sets in. Also driving natural gas futures upward is rising demand, declining production, and soaring exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the U.S. Gulf coast, diverting domestic supplies. In its 2022 outlook released in late May, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) projected that U.S. demand for natural gas would outpace supply this summer. As reported by NGI, FERC sees U.S. dry natural gas production increase by 3.4% over the summer months, compared to a projected 4.8% increase in consumption during that same period. Over the winter period from November 2021 through March 2022, 2,264 billion cubic feet of natural gas was withdrawn from U.S. storage, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). That withdrawal is 10% higher than the previous five-year average. Already this winter, U.S. demand for natural gas exceeded supply by 14.9 billion cubic feet per day.
Natural Gas Futures Price Gains Mount as Traders Advised to ‘Buckle Up’ - In one of the most explosive sessions in recent weeks – and that’s saying a lot – natural gas futures rocketed higher Monday as production struggles to gain momentum and heat is starting to intensify ahead of what’s expected to be a hot summer. The July Nymex gas futures contract jumped 79.9 cents to $9.322/MMBtu. August futures climbed 79.6 cents to $9.306. Spot gas prices also strengthened as temperatures across Texas are poised to touch record levels this week. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. shot up 67.0 cents to $8.565. With forecasts calling for heat to become more widespread later this month, traders took notice of the potential for highs in Texas to surpass the century mark for the next seven days in some cities. The electric grid operator for most of Texas – the Electric Reliability Council of Texas – said the sweltering conditions could drive loads to a near-record level above 74,000 MW on Monday and Tuesday. At the same time, wind generation was expected to falter, dropping by more than 100 gigawatt hours/day. “Strong loads, particularly when paired with falling wind output, often require increasingly inefficient gas-fired generation to keep the lights on, creating increased chances for elevated spot gas market demand and upside power burn surprises later this week,” said EBW Analytics Group senior analyst Eli Rubin. Meanwhile, production has been a source of frustration for the gas market. After nearing late-2021 highs early last week, output softened later in the period and failed to recover over the weekend. Estimates showed production at around 95 Bcf on Monday, 2 Bcf shy of the highs largely viewed as needed to loosen up supply/demand balances. What’s more, Tennessee Gas Pipeline (TGP) said it would be performing major pig runs on a part of its system on Tuesday and Thursday, limiting gas flows heading toward the Northeast. TGP said operating capacity on segment 321 FH would be limited to 880 MMcf/d from 1.93 Bcf/d on those two days. The increase in gas demand and lower production comes amid a mostly steady rise in exports following spring turnarounds. NGI data showed feed gas deliveries to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals sitting at around 12.8 Bcf at the start of the week. This was off slightly from the 13 Bcf level reached over the weekend, but generally in line with volumes seen the rest of the past week.
U.S. natgas futures near 13-year high on rising air conditioning use (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures held near a 13-year high on Tuesday on forecasts for hotter weather and higher demand than previously expected, a decline in output, low wind power and record power demand in Texas. Power demand in Texas broke the June record on Monday and will continue rising until it breaks the all-time high later this week as economic growth boosts overall usage and hot weather causes homes and businesses to crank up their air conditioners. Low wind power forces generators, including those in Texas - the state with the most wind power - to burn more gas to keep the lights on. Front-month gas futures for July delivery fell 2.9 cents, or 0.3%, to settle at $9.293 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Monday, the contract closed at its highest since August 2008. U.S. gas futures were up about 151% so far this year as much higher prices in Europe and Asia keep demand for U.S. LNG exports strong, especially since Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine stoked fears that Moscow might cut gas supplies to Europe. Gas was trading around $25 per mmBtu in Europe and $23 in Asia. Traders also said U.S. futures have soared in recent months due to low U.S. gas stockpiles - about 15% below normal for this time of year - and high U.S. coal prices, which make it uneconomical for electric companies to switch from gas to coal for power generation. Futures for July briefly traded at a premium over December NGN22-Z22 over the past week, prompting traders to note that speculators would make more money selling gas now rather than storing it for winter. That could make it harder to refill gas stockpiles this summer - though utilities will continue putting gas into storage to meet their winter heating demand. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 94.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June from 95.1 bcfd in May. That compares with a monthly record of 96.1 bcfd in December 2021. On a daily basis, U.S. output was on track to drop 1.4 bcfd to a preliminary 93.8 bcfd on Tuesday, its lowest since late April. That would be the biggest one-day decline since early February, but preliminary data is often revised. With hotter weather coming, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise to 93.9 bcfd next week from 90.7 bcfd this week. Those forecasts were much higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Monday.
U.S. natgas drops 6% on explosion at Texas Freeport LNG plant (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures dropped about 6% on Wednesday on reports of a fire at the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas. Police in Quintana, Texas, said they were evacuating residents near the Freeport LNG plant following an explosion. The plant can turn about 2.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of natural gas into LNG. It was pulling in about 2.0 bcfd of pipeline gas earlier on Wednesday, according to data provider Refinitiv. LNG exports have been the fastest growing source of new demand in the United States in recent years. The possible loss of any facility would cut overall U.S. gas consumption and could boost global gas prices as many countries around the world seek to reduce their dependence on Russian energy after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. Earlier in the day, gas futures rose to a fresh 13-year high on forecasts for hotter weather and higher demand next week, a decline in output, low wind power, and record power demand in Texas. Power demand in Texas broke the June record on Monday and Tuesday and is expected to keep rising this week until it tops the all-time high as economic growth boosts usage and hot weather causes homes and businesses to crank up their air conditioners. Low wind power forces generators, including those in Texas - the state with the most wind power - to burn more gas to keep the lights on. Front-month gas futures for July delivery fell 59.4 cents, or 6.4%, to settle at $8.699 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). In the minutes after the Freeport news broke, gas futures dropped by around 9%. Earlier in the week on Monday, the contract rose to its highest level since August 2008. Despite the drop, U.S. gas futures were still up about 133% so far this year as much higher prices in Europe and Asia keep demand for U.S. LNG exports strong, especially since Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine stoked fears that Moscow might cut gas supplies to Europe. Gas was trading around $25 per mmBtu in Europe and $23 in Asia. Traders said U.S. futures also soared in recent months due to low U.S. gas stockpiles - about 15% below normal for this time of year - and high U.S. coal prices, which make it uneconomical for electric companies to switch from gas to coal for power generation.
US natural gas storage rises 97 Bcf to 1.999 Tcf as NYMEX futures rebound | S&P Global Commodity Insights - US natural gas in storage modestly widened its deficit to the five-year average in early June in a weekly stock build that was largely neutral to market expectations but still bullish for NYMEX gas futures. The US Energy Information Administration on June 9 reported a 97 Bcf injection to US inventories for the week ended June 3. The addition to stocks was closely aligned with S&P Global Commodity Insights' storage survey result, which called for an injection of 96 Bcf. The weekly build was also much closer to historical averages, just barely undershooting the year-ago injection of 98 Bcf and the five-year average of 100 Bcf in the corresponding week, data from the EIA showed. As a result, US working gas inventories climbed to 1.999 Tcf, while the shortfall to 2021 widened to 398 Bcf, leaving stocks about 17% below the year-ago level of 2.397 Tcf. The inventory deficit to the prior five-year average also expanded to its widest yet this season, pushing stocks to 340 Bcf, or almost 15%, below the historical average of 2.339 Tcf. Immediately following the EIA storage report's release, the Henry Hub July contract jumped about 25 cents to $8.45/MMBtu, followed by continued price gains throughout the morning and early afternoon that left the prompt-month contract just shy of $9/MMBtu at settlement, data from CME Group showed. The sharp rebound in NYMEX gas prices on June 9 came following a prior-day and overnight selloff to the low-$8s, apparently sparked by news of an explosion at the Freeport LNG export facility in Texas. On June 9, feedgas deliveries to the terminal were down for a second consecutive day to an estimated 235 MMcf/d. On June 8, deliveries to the terminal plunged below 400 MMcf/d as Freeport's three liquefaction trains were shut down for inspection and possible repair. During the prior week, feedgas deliveries to Freeport had averaged just under 2 Bcf/d, Platts Analytics data shows. With feedgas demand from Freeport LNG offline, the additional 2 Bcf/d in gas supply could potentially be redirected to storage over the coming days or even weeks, temporarily loosening spot market supply and casting a shadow of uncertainty over the NYMEX futures rally. During the week ended June 3, rising temperatures across the Northeast, the central US and the Rockies fueled a combined drop of 3.1 Bcf/d in US residential-commercial and industrial gas demand. In all three regions, flows into inventory either matched or outpaced the prior five-year average for the week and were only partially offset by a weaker net injection in the South Central region where hotter weather fueled an increase gas-fired power demand. As of June 9, Platts Analytics storage model is now estimating a net injection to US inventory of 95 Bcf for the week in progress – up 11 Bcf from the model's weekly prediction on June 7. Assuming the storage model estimate is accurate, the EIA's coming report would narrow the inventory deficit by 16 Bcf, potentially fueling a steep drop in NYMEX futures prices back toward the low-$8 or even upper-$7 range.
U.S. natgas gain 3% as hot weather offsets Freeport LNG shutdown (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures gained about 3% on Thursday, erasing earlier losses, on record power demand in Texas this week, a smaller-than-usual storage build, rising spot gas prices, low wind power and a decline in gas production so far this month. Earlier in the day, futures were down about 7% on expectations the fire and explosion that shut the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas on Wednesday for at least three weeks, raising the risk of global gas shortages especially in Europe. But shortages of LNG around the world means more gas will remain in the United States, giving utilities a chance to rapidly rebuild extremely low stockpiles. Freeport, the second biggest U.S. LNG export plant, consumes about 2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas, so a three-week shutdown would result in about 42 billion cubic feet (bcf) more gas being available to the U.S. market. U.S. storage was currently about 15%, or 340 bcf, below normal levels for this time of year, its lowest since April 2019. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 97 bcf of gas to storage during the week ended June 3. Traders said the build was slightly smaller than usual because power generators burned more gas last week to keep air conditioners humming during a heatwave. That was in line with the 96-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 98 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2017-2021) average increase of 100 bcf. After dropping 6% on Wednesday, front-month gas futures for July delivery rose 26.4 cents, or 3.0%, to settle at $8.963 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). "Natural gas ... seems to have already put the Freeport incident in the rear view mirror," said Robert Yawger, executive director of energy futures at Mizuho. Power demand in Texas will likely set fresh all-time highs every day from June 10-13 as economic growth boosts usage and homes and businesses keep their air conditioners cranked up to escape a lingering heatwave. Even though the weather was seasonally mild in both Pennsylvania and Chicago, next-day gas for Thursday rose to its highest since February 2014 at the Dominion South hub in Pennsylvania and its highest since the February freeze in 2021 in Chicago . Despite this week's drop, U.S. gas futures were still up about 139% so far this year as much higher prices in Europe and Asia keep demand for U.S. LNG exports strong, especially since Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine stoked fears Moscow might cut gas supplies to Europe. Gas was trading around $27 per mmBtu in Europe and $23 in Asia. That was a 9% gain for European gas prices due to worries about LNG supplies now that Freeport was shut. Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 94.8 bcfd so far in June from 95.1 bcfd in May. That compares with a monthly record of 96.1 bcfd in December 2021. The average amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants fell to 12.4 bcfd so far in June from 12.5 bcfd in May, according to data from Refinitiv. That compares with a monthly record of 12.9 bcfd in March. The United States can turn about 13.6 bcfd of gas into LNG. With the shutdown of Freeport, LNG feedgas fell from a recent high of 12.9 bcfd on Tuesday to around 11.0 bcfd on Wednesday and Thursday, the lowest since mid April. Freeport was pulling in about 2.0 bcfd before the fire.
Natural Gas Futures Resume Losses as Freeport LNG Outage Seen Benefiting U.S. Balances - After a brief reprieve, natural gas futures continued to slide Friday as traders continued to weigh the implications of a potentially prolonged outage at the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal. With tight balances firmly intact, the July Nymex gas futures contract slipped 11.3 cents to $8.850/MMBtu. August futures fell 11.1 cents to $8.867. Spot gas prices were overwhelmingly higher ahead of the weekend, with thunderstorms rolling through the northern United States but oppressive heat baking the South. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. jumped 33.5 cents to $8.215. Two days after an explosion at Freeport LNG, the market was still unclear about how the subsequent outage would impact balances. Freeport officials have indicated the terminal would remain shut down for at least three weeks. This means that gas would be available for domestic consumption or be put into storage. The Schork Group team said these “found molecules” are expected to offset the decline the market typically sees from May storage injections to June builds. The analysts noted, however, that the loss of Freeport LNG cargoes would strain an already tight global gas market and underpin European gas prices relative to U.S. prices. The longer Freeport remains offline, the greater the price differential between the two markets. “Freeport could be a game changer this season,” Schork analysts said. “Should the plant stay out of commission through the dog days of summer, then about 200 Bcf of LNG will remain in the U.S.” That would be ideal for Lower 48 balances. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 97 Bcf injection into underground storage inventories for the week ending June 3. This was in line with expectations, but fell short of the triple-digit mark to which some estimates had pointed. Total working gas in storage rose to 1,999 Bcf, which is 398 Bcf below year-earlier levels and 340 Bcf below the five-year average, according to EIA. Mobius Risk Group analysts noted that this year, the week following the Memorial Day holiday had almost identical total degree days as compared with the same week last year. As a result, the lack of any clear sign of loosening in a $9.00 pricing environment is a concern for market bears. Notably, salt storage inventories, which increased by only 3 Bcf during the reference week, also were worrisome and may have been the reason prices bounced as feverishly as they did after the EIA data was published.
Scorching Heat Wave Lifts Weekly Natural Gas Cash Prices, but Freeport LNG Outage Pressures Futures - Record-breaking temperatures and a precipitous drop in wind generation fueled impressive gains for natural gas prices across the Lower 48 during the June 6-10 trading week. NGI’s Weekly Spot Gas National Avg. picked up 36.5 cents to reach $8.510/MMBtu. Futures, however, finished lower on the week as traders struggled with how an outage at the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility following an explosion may impact supply/demand balances. The July Nymex gas futures contract ultimately closed the week at $8.850, off 47.2 cents from Monday’s close.Despite the Freeport incident snagging most of the headlines in the latter part of the week, Mother Nature’s scorching temperatures were pretty notable as well. The National Weather Service said sweltering heat will rule vast stretches from California to the Southern Plains through the weekend. Daytime temperatures are expected to soar 10-20 degrees above normal from California and the Desert Southwest to Texas and the southern High Plains.“Daytime temperatures will reach the triple digits in many locations with numerous records also expected to be broken,” said NWS forecasters. “Overnight lows are forecast to remain abnormally hot as well.”By the start of next week, a pair of Pacific fronts was forecast to bring precipitation and much cooler weather into California by the latter half of the weekend. This would force the dome of exceptionally hot temperatures to shift over the nation’s heartland.In Texas, the stifling heat was expected to stick around, lifting electricity consumption to record levels. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, the grid operator for most of the state, projected loads to reach 73,415 MW on Friday and soar to 76,122 MW by Monday. For reference, the current all-time peak is 74,820 MW peak, which was set on Aug. 12, 2019.The sweltering heat boosted Houston Ship Channel prices by 41.0 cents week/week to average $8.625. Similar prices were seen farther south in the Lone Star State, but slightly lower prices were seen in West Texas. Waha, for example, was up 38.0 cents on the week and averaged $8.120.Henry Hub climbed 40.5 cents week/week to $8.930, while prices on the West Coast surpassed $10.000 in some locations. SoCal Citygate prices were up 91.5 cents on the week to $9.865. There were a handful of U.S. locations that finished the week in the red. With a line of thunderstorms moving through the region and little cooling demand in place, Algonquin Citygate dropped 30.0 cents to $8.045.
Wondering Why the Price of Natural Gas is Suddenly so Damn High? The Booming US LNG Export Industry - by Wolf Richter - Exports of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) from the US to the rest of the world jumped by 18% over the first four months of 2022, to an average of 11.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), compared to the annual average in 2021, according to the EIA today.Exports of LNG have been increasing at huge rates – by 49% in 2021, by 31% in 2020, by 68% in 2019, by 53% in 2018, and by 279% in 2017. This growth comes as a function of the completion of new LNG export terminals.The US has become the largest natural gas producer in the world. In 2016, large-scale LNG exports started, much of it shipped to Asian destinations, with China, Korea, and Japan at the top in 2021. But due to the massive demand from Europe so far in 2022, and higher prices at the trading hubs in Europe, US exports have shifted to European destinations. In 2021, the US shipped 34% of its annual LNG production to Europe. But over the first four months this year, a massive shift occurred, when 74% of US LNG was exported to Europe, tripling the volume to 7.3 Bcf/d, and accounted for 49% of total LNG imports, according to the EIA today.There has long been a small LNG export terminal in Alaska. But the first large-scale export terminal began operating in 2016, by which time fracking had created a natural gas glut in the US, and its price had collapsed. LNG export operators arbitraged the cheap price of natural gas in the US and the much higher prices they could get globally by exporting LNG. The increase in LNG exports in 2022 so far is the result of additional export capacity coming on line so far this year:
- Train 6 at the Sabine Pass LNG export facility added up to 0.76 Bcf/d of peak export capacity. Began operating at the end of 2021.
- The first five blocks of Calcasieu Pass. The facility will have 18 liquefaction trains with a total peak capacity of 1.6 Bcf/d. All of them are expected to be operational by the end of this year.
The small terminal at Kenai, Alaska has been operating for years; the other seven started operating in 2016 and later (FERC data):
- Kenai, AK: 0.2 Bcf/d (Trans-Foreland)
- Sabine, LA: 4.55 Bcf/d (Cheniere/Sabine Pass LNG –Trains 1-6)
- Cove Point, MD: 0.82 Bcf/d (Dominion–Cove Point LNG)
- Corpus Christi, TX: 2.40 Bcf/d (Cheniere – Corpus Christi LNG Trains 1-3)
- Hackberry, LA: 2.15 Bcf/d (Sempra–Cameron LNG, Trains 1-3)
- Elba Island, GA: 0.35 Bcf/d (Southern LNG Company Units 1-10)
- Freeport, TX: 2.14 Bcf/d (Freeport LNG Dev/Freeport LNG Expansion/FLNG Liquefaction Trains 1-3)
- Cameron Parish, LA: 0.74 Bcf/d (Venture Global Calcasieu Pass Units 1-4)
Natural gas falls prey to Biden's war on the energy grid - Improvements in the nation’s natural gas infrastructure are getting more difficult as President Joe Biden wages war against the United States’s energy grid . Regulatory burdens have plagued new pipelines and shale fracking operations under previous administrations, and Biden is intentionally making it worse.Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is cited by the administration as the primary cause of the U.S.’s energy crisis. “ Putin’s price hike ,” according to former press secretary Jen Psaki, is why the public is facing rising prices across various sectors of the economy.The U.S. domestic natural gas market is not facing a rise in prices because of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Pipeline projects aiming to transport natural gas from the Marcellus and Utica shale basins have been canceled, delayed, or halted because of court challenges launched by environmentalist groups and state administrations.The Mountain Valley Pipeline project seeks to transport gas extracted from the Marcellus and Utica shales across the states of Virginia and West Virginia. A January 2022 ruling from the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals rejected permits issued for the pipeline by the Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management because of environmental concerns. MVP has raised the costs of the project while delaying the start date, as it attempts to get new permits for constructing the pipeline.Developers of the PennEast pipeline, which sought to transport natural gas between Pennsylvania and New Jersey, successfully defended their project in a legal fight that went to the Supreme Court. In a 5-4 decision, the nation’s highest court ruled PennEast could seize land owned by the state of New Jersey for the pipeline’s construction. The pipeline was canceled despite this victory because the state dragged its feet and refused to issue the required permits.President Donald Trump’s administration tried to support America’s pipelines by revising the Environmental Protection Agency’s rules for the water permitting process. Under Trump, states could block projects if they proved a project would be directly responsible for polluting bodies of water. The time frame for permit reviews was one year in order to prevent delays to projects.Cue the Biden administration.On June 2, 2022, the EPA proposed a new rule that would undo the Trump-era reforms. Under the rule, states can now exercise more flexibility when conducting their permit reviews and determine a “reasonable period of time” rather than a set period of one year.Production is stagnating, but the growth of fossil fuels is not part of the Biden administration’s agenda despite natural gas being cleaner than coal and oil for energy production. “Burning natural gas for energy results in fewer emissions of nearly all types of air pollutants and carbon dioxide than burning coal or petroleum products to produce an equal amount of energy,” according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.Despite proposing new rules to stonewall the American supply of natural gas, Biden wants to provide the resource to our European allies as they decouple from Russia. Domestic production is stagnating in the northeast because of pipeline projects being halted and delayed, but we are telling allies to rely on our liquid natural gas. Promises are being made that cannot be kept.
U.S. LNG Exports To Europe Increased During 1Q Of 2022 -During the first four months of 2022, the United States exported 74 percent of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe, compared with an annual average of 34 percent last year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released Natural Gas Monthly and EIA estimates for April 2022. In 2020 and 2021, Asia had been the main destination for U.S. LNG exports, accounting for almost half of the total exports. U.S. LNG exports averaged 11.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) during the first four months of 2022, an 18 percent increase compared with the 2021 annual average. The increase in U.S. LNG exports was driven by additional export capacity from Sabine Pass Train 6 and the first five blocks of Calcasieu Pass that came online this year and by high LNG demand, particularly in Europe. Since December 2021, the European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom have been importing record-high levels of LNG, primarily because of low natural gas storage inventories. High spot natural gas prices at the European trading hubs incentivized global LNG market participants with destination flexibility in their contracts to deliver more LNG supplies to Europe. Additional LNG imports in Europe and a mild winter offset lower natural gas pipeline imports from Russia. The United States became the largest LNG supplier to the EU and United Kingdom in 2021, accounting for 26 percent of total imports. In the first four months of 2022, LNG imports from the United States to the EU and the United Kingdom have more than tripled, compared with 2021, averaging 7.3 Bcf/d and accounting for 49 percent of total imports, according to data from CEDIGAZ. LNG imports from Russia and Qatar accounted for 14 percent each – 2.1 Bcf/d. During the first four months of 2022, U.S. LNG exports to Asia declined by 51 percent, averaging 2.3 Bcf/d compared with 4.6 Bcf/d – annual average in 2021. China and South Korea were top destinations for U.S. LNG exports in 2021. This year, however, China received only six LNG cargoes from the United States in January – April 2022 – 0.2 Bcf/d, compared with 1.2 Bcf/d in 2021 – because of pandemic-related lockdown measures, as well as a mild winter and high LNG spot prices, reduced demand for spot LNG imports. U.S. LNG exports to South Korea and Japan also declined by 0.6 Bcf/d and 0.5 Bcf/d, respectively.
U.S. LNG Exports Stay Near Record Levels In May --U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas remained close to record levels last month, at 7.29 million tons, or the second-highest since records of such exports began. According to Refinitiv Eikon data, Reuters reported that the May total was a 12-percent increase on the year and also a substantial increase on April, when U.S. LNG exports totaled 6.93 million barrels.The United States is on track to overtake Qatar and Australia as the world’s largest LNG exporter this year as producers rush to boost capacity amid strong demand for the commodity.However, gas production would also need to grow if the U.S. is to meet the global demand for its LNG, Reuters’ John Kemp wrote in a recent column. And it would need to grow substantially.Kemp noted that over the first three months of the year, U.S. LNG exports rose by 674 billion cu ft. At the same time, however, production of natural gas only grew by 433 billion cu ft, while domestic consumption remained flat.This prompted producers to tap reserves, which resulted in a solid draw in gas inventories: at the end of March, gas inventories were 318 billion cu ft below the pre-pandemic five-year average.The strong and quite fast increase in LNG exports has also had some industry observers worried about price developments at home. Natural gas prices have already almost tripled, and some expect them to rise further, putting a strain on domestic consumers.Europe remained the top destination of U.S. LNG shipments for yet another month in May, taking in two-thirds of total exports.“All factors remaining constant - such as no further cuts in Russian gas to Europe - we may see a rebalance of LNG vessels away from the region, which has become a black hole for LNG - drawing in all and every available cargo,” Rystad Energy analyst Lu Ming Pang told Reuters.
US Firms Secure 19 Deals to Export Liquified Natural Gas, Driven in Part by the War in Ukraine - War has been good for U.S. companies that liquefy natural gas and send it overseas in giant, ocean-going vessels, raising the possibility of a significant climate liability, according to an environmental nonprofit that’s been tracking LNG trends across the country. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 14, there has been a bustle of business activity, as American companies have secured at least nineteen agreements to supply nearly 24 million tons of LNG per year, the Environmental Integrity Project reported in a report released on Thursday. At least a quarter of that would go to European buyers facing an energy market in turmoil caused by Russia’s aggression. In addition to those 19 agreements, construction continues on four new LNG export terminals expected to begin operating by 2026. “There is a strong financial incentive for LNG now,” said Alexandra Shaykevich, the Environmental Integrity Project’s research manager and a co-author of the report, “Playing with Fire: The Climate Impact of the Rapid Growth of LNG.” “Natural gas prices are high, and that enables them to move quickly with these projects, after a delay during Covid,” she said. “The flurry is noteworthy. I haven’t seen anything like this in the last couple of years.” The environmental group maintains Oil and Gas Watch, a website that monitors oil and gas-related projects in the United States. LNG produced in the U.S. is exported from seven terminals that were built or expanded within the last decade—three in Louisiana, two in Texas and one each in Georgia and Maryland. These facilities have the capacity to produce up to 104.5 million tons per year of LNG and are authorized to emit up to 28.3 million tons of greenhouse gases per year, according to the report. In all, the Environmental Integrity Project counts 25 LNG projects that are either under construction or in the planning stages. Combined, these facilities could boost annual greenhouse gas emissions by more than 90 million tons per year, or the equivalent of 18 million gasoline-powered cars, according to the environmental group. That number does not include emissions released from drilling and piping the gas to the export facilities, or ultimately burning the gas at power plants, homes or businesses. An industry expert at Louisiana State University said it remains uncertain how many of the planned projects will secure the permits and financing they need for such an industry build-out. An LNG export facility can cost billions of dollars.
Liquefied natural gas is booming, but at what cost to climate? - The expansion of liquefied natural gas export terminals in the United States — up to 25 projects currently underway — could end up emitting more than 90 million tons of greenhouse gases in a year, according to the Environmental Integrity Project, a non-profit that analyzed state and federal permits. That figure is roughly equivalent to the carbon pollution produced by 20 coal-fired power plants, and does not include emissions that would result from the extraction and end use of the gas itself.The Environmental Integrity Project calculated emissions from LNG projects that are proposed and seeking permits, fully authorized and soon to begin construction, or currently under construction. There are seven LNG export terminals operating in the United States today, which would mean — should all of the new projects become operational — more than a four-fold increase in such facilities by 2028. Since the start of the Ukraine conflict in March, a number of legislators have demanded an immediate increase in domestic natural gas production, ostensibly to cut into Russia’s power in the oil and gas market and to reduce pressure on household budgets strained by high gas prices. Some European nations have found themselves in a challenging position with regard to imposing sanctions on Russia, because they are highly dependent on Russian fossil fuel exports to meet their energy needs.However, as Grist reported last month, environmental justice activists are concerned that American legislators are using the Ukraine crisis as a reason to secure new oil and gas contracts to appease corporate interests. Increased production, processing, and transportation of LNG poses a significant threat to frontline communities who live near the facilities. Just this week, anexplosion at the Freeport LNG plant in Quintana, Texas provoked great alarm within the surrounding community. Furthermore, Russian sanctions have contributed to gas prices shooting up continuously since March, but they’re not the sole reason for $5-a-gallon. Another major contributing factor is simply an uneven road to recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2020, OPEC cut production of oil to balance plummeting prices due to global lockdowns, and global producers have not been able to ramp up production enough to meet the demand of a world returning more or less to normal activity. All but one of the 25 LNG projects analyzed by the Environmental Integrity Project were underway in some form before the Ukraine conflict began, although the report details a significant increase in new international contracts for the existing and under-construction facilities over the past three months. The one new project proposed since February, a New Fortress Energy export terminal proposed to be built off the coast of Louisiana, is currently seeking approval and permitting with an ambitious goal of being operational by early next year. It would be the first offshore export terminal in the United States.Another processing facility included in Environmental Integrity’s report, a LNG plant proposed in Wyalusing, Pennsylvania by New Fortress Energy, has been at least temporarily blocked. In late March, the environmental interest groups Clean Air Action, Penn Future, and the Sierra Club sued to have the plant’s air emissions permit revoked, due to concerns about air and water pollution. In a settlement, New Fortress Energy agreed to stop construction and let its current permit lapse, which would require the company to restart the permitting process anew to be able to resume construction. This development has thrown a wrench in plans for a LNG export terminal in Gibbstown, New Jersey, which is largely dependent on the Wyalusing facility and is also included in the Environmental Integrity report.
Louisiana Investigating Methane Cloud Spotted From Space -Louisiana is investigating the source of a cloud of methane that was spotted from space near multiple natural gas pipelines. The state began its probe after Bloomberg News contacted the Louisiana Department of Natural Resources about a concentration of the planet-warming gas detected May 28 by a European Space Agency satellite. The plume had an emissions rate of 44 tons of methane an hour and was the most severe detected in the US since March 19, according to an analysis of the data by Kayrros SAS. If the release lasted an hour at the rate estimated by the geoanalytics firm, it would have roughly the same short-term impact as the annual emissions from about 800 US cars. A second plume identified the same day by the satellite that was roughly 25 miles (40 kilometers) southwest of the original release didn’t have enough information for Kayrros to estimate its emissions rate. Halting methane releases from fossil fuel operations is one of the most important steps that can be taken to slow global warming. Venting and non-emergency flaring of methane from oil and gas should be significantly reduced or eliminated to keep global temperatures from rising more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit), according to the International Energy Agency. The release under investigation likely originated within 6 miles of gas pipelines owned by Kinder Morgan Inc. and Boardwalk Pipelines LP and about 8 miles from an Energy Transfer pipeline, according to Kayrros. None of the three operators contacted by Bloomberg said they were responsible. Louisiana’s Department of Natural Resources said it was first made aware of the methane cloud by Bloomberg. “We are currently trying to see if there are any potential sources (wells or pipelines) that look to be close enough to have caused such a release,” Patrick Courreges, a representative for the state department, said in an email Friday. He said the agency is reaching out to the nearby operators and its field agents are looking for any physical evidence, such as a ruptured pipeline or disturbed ground.
Fire Knocks Out Billionaire-Owned Natural Gas Export Plant In Texas, Nation’s Second-Biggest --A fire Tuesday at Freeport LNG, near Galveston, Texas, has knocked out America’s second-largest liquefied natural gas export facility for at least three weeks. According to a spokeswoman, no employees or contractors were injured in the incident, which sent black smoke into the sky before being brought under control. As news of the outtage spread Tuesday afternoon, natural gas prices plummeted by a dollar, to around $8.10 per thousand cubic feet. The sprawling plant on Quintana Island, 90 minutes south of Houston, became operational in 2021 and had been exporting 2 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas, about a sixth of total LNG exports. Freeport LNG is majority owned by billionaire Michael S. Smith, who spent two decades building the plant, which was on track this year to export some 15 million tons of LNG, the energy equivalent of about 130 million barrels of oil. Smith operates the facility kind of like a tollroad — offtakers including BP, Osaka Gas, Jera, SK Energy have signed long-term contracts to take a certain number of tanker cargoes per year from Freeport, in return for set fees. Trading house Trafigura has a shorter-term contract for 5% of LNG production. Freeport’s revenues are on the order of $2.5 billion per year. The plant cost roughly $14 billion to build, and carried $13 billion in project finance debt upon completion last year.
Texas LNG Export Terminal Shuttered For Three Weeks After Explosion -- The explosion at Freeport LNG at Quintana Island has forced operations at the oil and gas export facility to be halted "for a minimum of three weeks," according to local news KPRC.UPDATE: Explosion shuts down Freeport LNG’s liquefaction facility for next 3 weeks, officials say https://t.co/7oKRbn6F4u pic.twitter.com/cU65zFR5fV— KPRC 2 Houston (@KPRC2) June 8, 2022 Freeport receives about 2 billion cubic feet of gas per day or roughly 16% of the total US LNG export capacity. This means LNG exports will shrink and result in more supply on the grid, pushing down natural gas prices.Here's earlier footage of the explosion. A "small explosion" at Freeport LNG terminal in Surfside Beach, Texas, resulted in the plunge of natural gas futures on Wednesday afternoon. Local news KHOU reports the incident occurred around 1140 local time in the 1500 block of Lamar Street at the facility on Quintana Island. "We are in the process of monitoring the situation and will provide information accordingly," Freeport's Director of Corporate Communications Heather Browne told The Facts. The Facts posted a picture of the export terminal showing black smoke rising from the facility. Houston-based energy firm Criterion Research shared more views of the facility via local news KPRC's live aerial view.
Freeport LNG to shutter for at least 3 weeks --The Freeport LNG export terminal in Texas will be shuttered for at least three weeks following an explosion there earlier today that roiled natural gas markets. Even a temporary loss of exports from the terminal just south of Houston could leave about 2 Bcf/d (57mn m³/d) of gas available to meet gas demand for power generation or for injection into gas storage. The US exported about 11.6 Bcf/d of LNG in May, up by 15pc from a year earlier. That sharp increase in exports, resulting from robust demand in international markets, helped drive Nymex prompt-month prices on 6 June to a 13-year settlement high of $9.322/mmBtu. The prompt-month contract tumbled today by 6.4pc from, dropping below $9/mmBtu, after news of the incident. Gas flows on Gulf South, a key conduit for supplies to the terminal, fell today to zero. The disruption at the 15mn t/yr Freeport terminal could help balance the US gas market and put additional downward pressure on prices. Injections into gas storage so far this year have lagged average levels on higher exports, sluggish production growth and strong demand for gas in the US power sector. Freeport LNG did not disclose if there was damage from the incident or the cause. No one was injured, and the incident is under investigation, Freeport said.
US Refining Bottleneck The Culprit For Your Gas Pump Pains - There is no quick fix to ease America's pain at the pump because refiners struggle to meet the demand for diesel and gasoline, sending fuel prices soaring due to declining national stockpiles and fears of shortages. The latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) data shows the U.S. refining capacity is structurally short and down 1 million barrels from April 2020 (a month after the lockdowns began) to 17.95 million bpd as of June. "When the coronavirus pandemic occurred, demand for global oil was not expected to fall for a long time, and yet so much refining capacity was cut permanently," Ravi Ramdas, managing director of energy consultancy Peninsula Energy, told Reuters. Goldman Damien Courvalin wrote in a note (available to professional subs) that "rising dislocation between crude and petroleum product prices finally reflects the current extreme tightness in global refining, driven by seasonality, disruptions as well as large-capacity closures." He said refinery tightness would keep refined product prices higher throughout the year and also noted more refinery closures are slated by the end of next year. "The Covid demand shock, the accompanying excessively weak future demand expectations and the diversion of energy capital by ESG have led to c.4.2 mb/d of refinery capacity closures since 2019 with another 1 mb/d planned to be closed by end-2023. This resulted in near mid-cycle utilization rates of 82% at the start of the year, even before the China and Russia disruptions and in spite of partially IMO2020 related capacity expansions, as demand also quickly normalized. Looking forward we expect net capacity to fall -0.5 in 2022 and rise 1.5 mb/d in 2023 (YoY Dec-Dec) outside of China and Russia," Courvalin noted. The Goldman analyst maps out that available global refinery capacity has been in a downward sloping curve since early 2020. This means as long as demand for refined products stays elevated, prices at the pump will remain higher because of the bottleneck in no new capacity coming online for a few years. The worsening refining bottleneck, especially in the U.S., was explained by Mike Wirth, the CEO of oil giant Chevron, who recently told Bloomberg TV that there's not enough refining capacity to meet the demand for gasoline and diesel because no new refinery will ever be built in the U.S. again. Wirth explains his reason: "You're looking at committing capital ten years out, that will need decades to offer a return for shareholders, in a policy environment where governments around the world are saying, 'We don't want these products to be used in the future.'" The crisis in refined products is because of the green energy transition forcing oil/gas companies, like Chevron and other majors, to not just shutter refineries but not invest and expand refinery capacity. This colossal failure has resulted in the national average for regular fuel approaching $5 a gallon by the end of this week.
Texas adds more than 3,000 oil field services jobs in May -The country’s oil field services sector continued to add jobs last month as oil and gas companies move forward with planned increases in drilling. Texas added about 3,160 oil field services jobs in May for a total of 306,411, according to an analysis of preliminary federal data from the industry trade group Energy Workforce and Technology Council. Overall the country added close to 4,775 jobs in the sector last month for a total of 628,793, according to the preliminary data. Demand for oil and gas was already on the rise as the global economy recovers from the pandemic. Now, as countries sanction Russian oil in retaliation for Moscow’s war on Ukraine, officials are pushing for U.S. oil and gas producers to ramp up production to help ease soaring gasoline and utility prices. While companies are working to increase production overall this year, analysts have said drillers are sticking to planned increases instead of quickly ramping up output – even with West Texas crude oil at more than $110 per barrel. Instead companies have remained focused on increasing shareholder returns. “It's almost value destruction if you try to accelerate anything now,” Occidental Petroleum CEO Vicki Hollub told investors last month. “And some of the longer term projects just can't can't get started because of the cost involved. Now, for those of us that had plans in place – and there are other companies that have done this, too – but those of us that had plans in place and had those plans in place early enough, we've been able to mitigate some of the impact of the inflation and all that.”
Oil, gas companies underreported methane leaks, new study shows - Big oil and gas companies have internal data showing that their methane emissions in the vast Permian Basin “are likely significantly higher than official data” reported to the Environmental Protection Agency, says a new report by the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology.The companies should adopt tougher surveillance measures to detect and control methane leaks, especially giant super-emitters that contribute to the greenhouse gases that cause climate change, says the report.“A very significant proportion of methane emissions appear to be caused by a small number of super-emitting leaks,” the report says, noting that a single leak experienced by one company may have accounted for more than 80 percent of the methane emissions that company reported to the EPA from its Permian oil and gas production in 2020.The report was written by the committee’s Democratic staff using materials requested by Science Committee Chairwoman Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-Tex.) in a letter to 10 oil and gas companies on Dec. 2. Johnson said the United States could not achieve its goals for reducing methane emissions without a “swift and large-scale decline in oil and gas sector methane leaks.”The companies were invited by name to provide information, but their results remained anonymous in the final report.The committee, which will hold a hearing at 10 a.m. Wednesday on detecting and quantifying methane emissions in the oil and gas sector, zeroed in on the Permian Basin because it extends across 55 counties in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico and accounted for 42.6 percent of U.S. oil production and 16.7 percent of U.S. natural gas production in December 2021.
Oil and gas air pollution in Permian Basin draws concern from Congress - A congressional committee investigated some of the largest oil and gas companies in the Permian Basin, finding they were likely under-reporting their emissions of methane air pollution to the federal government. The U.S. House Committee on Science, Space and Technology convened Wednesday to discuss the finding of its report focused on the Permian and strategies to address fossil fuel's environmental impact. Three findings came from the inquiry: oil and gas companies are failing to address “super-emitting” gas leaks and to use proper data to mitigate methane emissions while they are “inconsistently” using monitoring technology throughout the U.S.’ main oil fields. The 18-month study conducted by committee members analyzed methane emissions and efforts to mitigate leaks from 10 companies, including major Permian Basin oil and gas companies Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Devon Energy, ExxonMobil, Occidental Petroleum and Pioneer Natural Resources. The Permian Basin, about 75,000 square miles stretching from southeast New Mexico to West Texas is the U.S.’ busiest oilfield, accounting for about 40 percent of the nation’s oil production, per the Texas Railroad Commission. U.S. Rep. Melanie Stansbury (D-NM), a member of the committee who represents the state’s First Congressional District which after last year’s redistricting includes parts of Chaves and Otero counties in southeast New Mexico near the Permian Basin oil fields said the results of pollution were already proving dire to her state. She attributed a recent rash of wildfires in the state, including the two biggest in New Mexico's history, as a direct result of climate change driven by the emission of greenhouse gasses (GHGs) like methane. Stansbury said the oil and gas industry must be held accountable, arguing the global oil and gas industry produced more methane than the total GHG emissions of "164 countries combined." "Across New Mexico, our communities are experiencing a devastating drought and our firefighters are battling unprecedented wildfires, weeks before wildfire season begins," read Stansbury's prepared remarks for the hearing. "We must take decisive action now to address the causes of climate change while investing in the sustainability and resilience of our communities. "This means tackling the main offenders among greenhouse gases." David Lyon, senior scientist with the Environmental Defense Fund testified before the committee that the oil and gas industry was the nation’s largest industrial source of methane emissions, but also had the most “cost-effective” solutions. “Capturing methane often allows companies to sell more natural gas,” he said. “Additionally, the methane mitigation industry provides many high paying jobs and is rapidly growing. However, delaying the widespread adoption of mitigation measures will substantially worsen climate impacts and cause continuing harm to communities and workers.”
Texas' Anti-Business, Pro-Fossil Fuel Law Is Spreading - The Texas law that seeks to stop companies from being mean to fossil fuels is getting popular—even if its execution and implications are still murky. States across the country are looking at adopting similar bills to one passed in Texas that forbids the state from doing business with any institutions that “boycott” fossil fuels.The original bill was passed last year, but its enforcement mechanisms are just now coming into play. The bill instructs the Texas comptroller to create a list of businesses that “boycott” fossil fuels. It’s unclear what exactly qualifies a “boycott” or how the state plans on cutting ties with financial institutions, banks, and other companies it deems aren’t being nice enough to Big Oil. The bill was modeled after a separate bill that banned the state from doing business with any entity that did not support Israel; that law has beenblocked by judges twice since its passage in 2017.Despite these lingering questions, other states are following Texas’ lead. Last month, Oklahoma’s governor signed its own version of the bill, called the Energy Discrimination Elimination Act, into law. In a local news report, supporters of the bill cited Texas’ “success” in implementing anti-anti-fossilfuel regulation, claiming that that state hasn’t seen any higher costs as a result of passing its law. (Again, it’s important to note that Texas hasn’t actually taken any actions yet against companies that it has decided are being unfair to fossil fuel companies, so the true implications of laws like these haveyet to be seen.)“Oklahoma is the state that fossil fuels built,” State Rep. Mark McBride (R)told KFOR News. “If you are boycotting them, the state is not going to do business with you.”Elsewhere in the country, lawmakers in other oil and gas states are also eyeing the Texas law as a model. West Virginia passed a bill earlier this year that would restrict the state from working with banks that “have been shown to refuse, terminate or limit commercial activity with coal, oil or natural gas companies.” Meanwhile, a similar bill introduced this year in Indiana would prohibit the state from making investments in companies that “boycott energy companies.” And a bill working its way through the Louisiana House would establish the state as a “fossil fuel sanctuary” and forbid enacting certain policies that would specifically tax or financially hamper the industry.
U.S. Oil Rig Count Jumps As Crude Holds At $120 --The number of total active drilling rigs in the United States rose by 6 this week, after drilling increases stalled out in the week prior, according to new data from Baker Hughes published on Friday. The total rig count rose to 733 this week—272 rigs higher than the rig count this time in 2021, but insufficient to ease market fears in the current tight oil market. Oil rigs in the United States rose by 6 this week to 580. Gas rigs stayed the same, at 151. Miscellaneous rigs also stayed the same at 2. The rig count in the Permian Basin rose by 3 this week, to 345. Rigs in the Eagle Ford rose by 2, to 68. Oil and gas rigs in the Permian are 109 above where they were this time last year. While there is more drilling activity in the Permian than this time last year, the increase in activity in U.S. shale has been outpaced by demand. With ESG concerns giving oil and gas companies pause in upping serious long-term investments in oil production and refining, and as companies fear depleting their reserves too quickly, we have failed to see a large and speedy uptick in drilling activity. Primary Vision's Frac Spread Count, an estimate of the number of crews completing unfinished wells—a more frugal use of finances than drilling new wells--fell for the second week in a row last week, from 283 to 279 in the week ending June 3. U.S. crude oil production was unmovable at 11.9 million bpd for the week ending June 3—the same level it's been at for the three weeks prior, according to the latest Energy Information Administration. At 12:29 a.m. ET, oil prices were trending down on the day. WTI was trading at $119.30—down $2.22 per barrel (-1.83%) on the day, but up roughly $0.60 per barrel on the week. The Brent benchmark traded at $120.70 per barrel, down $2.40 (-1.95%) on the day, but up roughly $1.40 on the week, with Brent barely hanging onto its edge over WTI. At 1:06 pm ET, WTI was trading at $119.60, while Brent was trading at $121.20 per barrel—both up on the day.
US set to resume onshore leasing next week - US oil and gas companies next week will get their first chance since January 2021 to acquire new drilling rights on federal land, but with a slimmer pick of parcels and a far higher royalty rate. The competitive sales will be the first federal onshore oil and gas lease sales since President Joe Biden took office. Leasing will begin on 14 June and 16 June for acreage in Nevada and Colorado, followed by sales later this month in Wyoming, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Montana, North Dakota and Utah. But the US Interior Department, which is holding the six sales to comply with a court order, cut back on the acreage up for leasing to avoid disturbing wildlife habitat and cultural areas. It intends to offer 173 parcels on 144,000 acres, about one-fifth of the acreage considered under former president Donald Trump. It also raised the royalty rate to 18.75pc, the first-ever increase from the longstanding rate of 12.5pc. The limited acreage up for lease and the 50pc higher royalty rate could diminish bidding, industry officials say, even with Nymex WTI crude futures topping $120/bl in recent days. Industry officials say royalty rates should have been kept low to offset the costs related to litigation and complying with stringent federal rules. Bidding is likely to be muted in the first sale on 14 June in Nevada, in large part because of geology. The two latest lease sales in Nevada, held in 2020, raised just $93,000 on the sale of 13 parcels of 56 offered. The Interior Department plans to only offer five parcels in next week's Nevada sale. The next sale, on 16 June in Colorado, could draw more interest but is likely to be limited by only offering nine parcels, down from 119 parcels. The two latest Colorado sales, also held in 2020, raised nearly $2.1mn in bonus bids by leasing 87 parcels of 100 parcels that were offered. Oil industry officials plan to more closely watch the 21 June sale in Wyoming that will offer 129 parcels. Bidding on acreage in Wyoming has recently been high, with the last federal lease sale in December 2020 raising $7mn on the sale of 181 parcels. But industry officials have balked at the administration's decision earlier this year to defer leasing on 61 parcels. "Deferral of these parcels will actually result in additional surface disturbance because companies will not be able to effectively develop their leases with longer horizontal wells," trade group the Western Energy Alliance said in an 18 May protest.
Biden faults lack of new drilling by ExxonMobil - President Joe Biden is ramping up criticism of the oil sector for holding back on investment on new production, as record-high gasoline prices become a growing political liability for Democrats. Biden, in remarks during a visit to the Port of Los Angeles in California, singled out ExxonMobil as an example of an oil company keeping its capital expenditures flat, despite higher profits as Nymex WTI crude futures climbed to $120/bl from $72/bl in December. "We're gonna make sure that everybody knows Exxon's profits," Biden said. "Exxon made more money than God this year." ExxonMobil in late April reported a $5.5bn profit in the first quarter and said that its quarterly capital expenditures declined to $4.9bn, from $5.8bn in the fourth quarter. ExxonMobil plans to spend $20bn-$25bn/yr through 2027, it said late last year. ExxonMobil did not immediately respond to a request for comment. High gasoline prices and inflation have added to political headwinds against Democrats heading into midterm elections, while increasing the difficulty for Democrats to reach a budget deal expected to include clean energy tax credits. Biden has blamed the jump in fuel prices largely on Russia's invasion of Ukraine but says oil companies are not doing enough to increase production. "One thing I want to say about the oil companies," Biden said. "They're not drilling. Why aren't they drilling? Because they make more money not producing more oil. The price goes up." Biden's criticism toward the oil sector comes as retail fuel prices continue to set new records, hitting $4.88/USG for regular grade gasoline in the week ending 6 June, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Fuel prices have been a leading contributor to rising price inflation, which hit a four-decade high of 8.6pc annually in May. The White House has repeatedly urged domestic producers to increase production Biden said that oil companies are holding back on new investment partly so they can reward investors through share repurchases. ExxonMobil on 29 April said it would triple the size of its existing share buyback program to $30bn through 2023. North American oil and gas producers are poised to increase capital spending by 26pc this year after two years of limited investment, but that will lead to just a 4pc increase in output volume, credit ratings service Moody's said in a research note on 6 June. Inflation, supply chain issues, labor shortages and shareholder demands for capital discipline are likely to constrain volume growth through at least 2023, it said.
Court upholds 'terrorism' sentencing of pipeline saboteur A federal appeals court on Monday upheld an eight-year prison sentence for an environmental activist who tried to sabotage the construction of the Dakota Access Pipeline. Jessica Reznicek pleaded guilty in June 2021 to a charge of conspiracy to damage an energy facility for vandalizing construction sites on the 1,200-mile (1,930-kilometer) pipeline in 2016 and 2017. Iowa U.S. District Judge Rebecca Goodgame Ebinger included a terrorism-related enhancement in her sentencing, finding that the crime was “calculated to influence or affect the conduct of government." Reznicek appealed that enhancement, arguing that she was acting against a private company. But the appeals court found that “any error was harmless” in Ebinger's sentencing because the judge had noted she would have imposed the eight-year sentence regardless of the terrorism enhancement, the Des Moines Register reported. An attorney for Reznicek declined to comment on the court's decision. Ruby Montoya, another activist who acted with Reznicek, has pleaded guilty to a charge in the incident. But she has attempted to withdraw that plea, arguing she was unfairly pressured into entering it.
Production, conversation groups challenge oil and gas leases – A Wyoming production group submitted a protest to the Bureau of Land Management regarding oil and gas leases on the same day a coalition of environmental groups also petitioned the BLM for the same reason. While these petitions all centered on President Joe Biden’s administration’s plans to resume oil and gas leasing sales on public lands in late June, they are for vastly different reasons. A litany of environmental groups submitted a formal protest to the Bureau of Land Management’s Wyoming office in reference to 129 nominated parcels across various locations, including Pinedale. That came the same day as a protest from the Petroleum Association of Wyoming, which took issue with the diminished amount of parcels for sale. The BLM is offering less than a third of requested parcels in the sale later this month. “The leases that they did offer for sale, many of them are in some of the most remote, most difficult places to reach,” PAW President Pete Obermueller said. Because of this, he argued the leases for sale might not be financially beneficial to the industry. The PAW argued the BLM does not have the legal authority to deny the sale of other land parcels. “(Federal Land Policy and Management Act) is the vehicle that determines which lands are and are not available and is accomplished during the development of a resource management plan,” the protest letter reads. The letter goes on to argue the BLM cannot outright deny a parcel’s availability for competitive bid. Linda Baker, executive director of the local Upper Green River Alliance, told Wyoming Public Radio that, under the National Environmental Policy Act, leases could be legally deferred for further review. “It makes common sense to review the necessity of leasing some of those parcels, especially some of those that are in the most sensitive wildlife habitats that we have,” she said. “For example, the Red Desert to Hoback mule deer migration corridor is one of the longest overland migration corridors in the Western Hemisphere. And, some of those leases are directly in the middle of that migration corridor.” Dan Ritzman – lands, water and wildlife campaign director for the Sierra Club – said the coalition’s filed protest is critical for the Biden administration to meet its established climate goals. “One of the biggest single sources of greenhouse gases across the country is fossil-fuel leasing on our public lands,” Ritzman said. “So to address climate change, we need to keep those fossil fuels in the ground, keep them from being burned.”
9th Circuit Court blocks permits for fracking off California coast - The U.S. 9th Circuit Court of Appeals on Friday blocked fracking off the California coast, ruling that the federal government must complete a full environmental review before approving permits for such offshore oil drilling platforms. The decision prevents the Interior Department and other federal agencies from issuing permits for “well stimulation” through hydraulic fracturing until a complete environmental impact statement is issued “rather than the inadequate [environmental assessment] on which they had relied.” “Today’s decision is a win for our communities, our environment, and the rule of law,” California Atty. Gen. Rob Bonta said in a news release. “Offshore drilling — particularly fracking — pollutes our waterways, damages our environment, and exacerbates climate change. We saw the risks of offshore drilling firsthand with the Huntington Beach oil spill last year, and we see it every day in the form of the climate crisis.” Kristen Monsell, oceans program legal director at the Center for Biological Diversity, called the ruling an “amazing victory for California’s coast and marine life.” “This decision will prevent more toxic chemicals from poisoning fish, sea otters and other marine life. And it brings us a step closer to ending offshore drilling once and for all,” Monsell said. The decision stems from a 2016 lawsuit brought by the state, the California Coastal Commission and environmental groups alleging that “federal agencies violated environmental laws when they authorized unconventional oil drilling methods on offshore platforms in the Pacific Outer Continental Shelf off the coast of California,” according to court records. The plaintiffs argued that the environmental assessments of fracking done by federal agencies, including the Interior Department, were inadequate and incomplete. See the big picture with monday.com PAID CONTENT See the big picture with monday.com By Project-Management.com 14-day free trial | No credit card needed “Environmental groups learned through Freedom of Information Act requests that agencies within the U.S. Department of the Interior had authorized permits for offshore well stimulation treatments without first conducting the normally-required environmental review,” the judgment said. Federal agencies “failed to take the hard look required” by the National Environmental Policy Act when issuing their environmental assessment, the 9th Circuit panel wrote.
Big Oil tees up next Supreme Court climate showdown - Climate liability lawsuits from state and local governments against fossil fuel companies could be headed to the Supreme Court for a second time.Suncor Energy Inc. and Exxon Mobil Corp. yesterday petitioned the justices to review a lower court decision that delivered a procedural victory to Colorado governments suing fossil fuel companies for climate damages (Climatewire, Feb. 9).The February finding by the 10th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals that the case should be heard by a state judge — rather than a federal bench, as industry wants — was the first in a string of legal losses for oil and gas companies after the Supreme Court said last year that appellate judges could consider a larger set of arguments in favor of federal jurisdiction. In Suncor v. Board of County Commissioners of Boulder County, the companies argued yesterday that the Supreme Court must step in once again. “Given the stakes in the climate-change litigation, the questions presented here are some of the most consequential jurisdictional questions currently pending in the federal courts,” the companies’ petition states, noting that as of now, 23 similar cases are active nationwide. Attorneys for the companies told the Supreme Court that given “the significant stakes for the parties, the questions presented here will continue to bedevil the lower courts until this court intervenes.” It takes the vote of four justices to grant a petition, and the court rejects most cases that come its way. The fight over whether climate liability lawsuits belong before state or federal judges has stymied action for years as municipalities across the country have gone to court seeking payment from the oil and gas industry for the effects of planet-warming emissions. The suits were filed in state courts, but industry has sought to move them to federal benches, where a judge could find that the municipalities’ claims are preempted by the Clean Air Act. The Supreme Court has already engaged in the debate once, with a decision last May that sent a host of cases back to federal appeals courts, instructing judges to consider a broader range of factors when deciding whether the liability lawsuits should be heard in state or federal court.
U.S. To Ease Venezuela Oil Restrictions For Europe: Report -Italy’s Eni and Spain’s Repsol will get the green light to start shipping Venezuelan crude to Europe from next month, Reuters has reported, citing five unnamed sources in the know.The sources cited a letter written by the U.S. State Department to Eni and Repsol, signaling that Washington’s firm stance on Venezuelan sanctions may not be so firm after all now that its strategic partners in Europe are facing a shortage of crude because of sanctions against Russia.Yet the Reuters sources said the volumes that Eni and Repsol will be allowed to ship from Venezuela to Europe will not be significant and will only likely have a minor effect on global prices. It will also be exclusively shipped to Europe and cannot be resold elsewhere, according to them.The U.S. began signaling a readiness to ease Venezuelan sanctions as early as March when Washington first said it would ban all Russian oil and fuel imports and then sent a delegation to Caracas to discuss oil exports.The visit did not produce results, but two months later, the Washington Postreported that the U.S. would lift restrictions on Chevron’s business in Venezuela, allowing the supermajor to negotiate directly with the Venezuelan government and PDVSA on future production. Venezuela is home to the largest proven oil reserves in the world but has been unable to make much of them over the last few years since the Trump administration stepped up sanction pressure on the South American country. A relaxing of sanctions could unleash another 400,000 bpd per day at a time when global crude oil consumers are scrambling for less expensive crude.
UK Petrol Prices Closing In On $125+ to Fill Family Cars -The cost of filling up a 55-liter family car with petrol has topped £98 ($122.58) for the first time in history, according to the RAC motoring organization. The average price of unleaded petrol in the UK rose to 178.5 pence per liter on June 6, while diesel increased to 185.2 pence, the group said. Both prices are record highs. “With analysts predicting that oil will average $135 a barrel for the rest of this year drivers need to brace themselves for average fuel prices rocketing to GBP 2 a liter, which would mean a fill-up would rise to an unbelievable GBP 110,” said spokesman Simon Williams. UK fuel prices have set a string of new records in recent weeks, with oil prices soaring since Russia began its invasion of Ukraine. The start of peak summer driving season in Europe and the US, as well as the easing of Covid restrictions in China, has also boosted demand, the RAC noted. The cost of filling cars with diesel already passed £100 at the end of May.
Environmental Organizations Protest Jackdaw Development -Environmental organizations from the UK have protested the Government giving the green light to Shell for the development of the Jackdaw offshore project. It started with nine supporters of the Just Stop Oil coalition throwing red paint over the Queen Elizabeth Building in Edinburgh, demanding the Government protects the ‘livable planet’ and halts all new oil and gas licenses and consents. Several activists were arrested for criminal damage while the action itself follows a rally attended by Stop Cambo, Extinction Rebellion, and others calling for No New Oil and Gas in response to the Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng approving Shell’s Jackdaw North Sea gas field. “Antonio Gutterres, the UN secretary-general stated that investing in fossil fuels is ‘moral and economic madness’, the IEA said last year that ‘if Governments are serious about the climate, there can be no new fossil fuels from today’. Commissioning new fossil fuel facilities are the morally bankrupt plans of a criminal cartel protecting oil and gas over life on earth. That is why this announcement has been made the night before the Queen’s Jubilee, they think we won’t notice, they think we won’t care, we are here to show them that they are wrong,” one of the activists said – listed only as Alex. “I believe that we must do anything in our power to show that we’re not ok with these destructive policies. New oil and gas is not the solution, it’s not providing energy security or dealing with the cost of living crisis. If this government wanted that they would be insulating homes and investing in renewables,” another activist stated. “We are demanding an affordable, reliable energy supply that doesn’t destroy the economy, doesn’t cause a cost of living crisis, and doesn’t destroy the livable planet for generations to come. I refuse to stand by as my government’s policies cause countless millions of people to die.” Another protest followed a few days after as a coalition of groups opposed to new oil and gas gathered outside Edinburgh Sherrif Court to show support for two women held in custody since the initial protest. Namely, six Just Stop Oil supporters were arrested after throwing over the paint throwing on the Queen Elizabeth Building. Four were released the next day, however, two were held in custody.
Petroleum Wars in the Age of Climate Disaster: a Bridge Fuel Too Far -- Today, Europe is again at war, albeit a proxy war between Russia and the West after Russia crossed NATO’s red line by invading Ukraine or NATO crossed Russia’s redline after expanding to its borders depending on your allegiances. There may be a simpler explanation, however, that harkens back to the age of Standard Oil and the Nobel Brothers: the fight over the supply of petroleum and the control of imported energy to Europe. One thing for sure, Big Oil or indeed Big Gas is calling the shots, never mind the devastation in Ukraine where real people are dying and cities are being turned into rubble. Or that global warming is perilously increasing. Climate crisis? What climate crisis?Having relied on Russia for 40% of its imported oil and gas, much of it via a tangled web of cross-border pipelines, Europe is now scrambling for fuel and warmth. Europe’s “4-corridor” policy of sourcing energy imports from Russia, MENA, central Asia, and Scandinavia is hurriedly being re-written. Russia is being given the economic boot as the global number-1 (US 21%) and number-2 (Russia 15%) natural gas producers fight it out over who controls the sale of trillions of cubic feet of natural gas per year to Europe and beyond. [1] At the same time, we’re being told the earth is heating up beyond repair, thanks to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide from ongoing fossil-fuel burning. The main bridgehead is in northeast Germany, terminus of the $10-billion, Nord Stream 1 (NS1) natural gas pipeline that snakes its way underneath the Baltic Sea from Vyborg near Saint Petersburg to Greifswald. NS1 brings roughly a quarter of Europe’s piped energy, primarily Arctic and Siberian natural gas. The attempted certification of a parallel, $11-billion NS2 would have doubled Russian supplies to the same location, but was nixed by the United States, the first shot in the Great Russian Gas War. The US can’t sell its own fracked natural gas to Europe if Russia holds a monopoly, while NATO isn’t keen for the Kremlin to reassert its iron-handed influence in a post-Soviet world via expanded energy exports that already account for almost $200 billion in annual export revenues and 60% of the Russian budget. Most importantly, there is little point to a military alliance if your opponent is supplying the energy to your members. NATO would cease to be if Team Europe ran on Russian fuel. Perhaps the confusion over the motivation for the latest petroleum war is an unfamiliarity with natural gas, whose main component, methane (CH4), is a potentially worse greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide (CO2). Associated hydrocarbon gases are typically found wherever there is oil, mostly methane (70-90%), with some ethane, propane, butane, and hexane. After 70 years of interventions in the Middle East, we’re used to the black stuff gushing from the ground, but fighting over an invisible gas is new.
Environmental groups challenge EU support for gas projects - ABC News -- Campaigning groups have launched legal action to challenge a decision by the European Union’s executive arm to include 30 gas projects in a list of operations considered as beneficial to the 27-nation bloc’s energy market. The campaigners said on Tuesday that the European Commission has given “these climate-destructive projects VIP status, in contradiction of its legal obligations.” They said the projects are worth 13 billion euros and will lock the region into dependency on the fossil fuel that EU institutions say that they want to get rid of. The projects, which include the Baltic Pipe Project designed to bring Norwegian gas to Poland and the development of gas infrastructure in Cyprus, are part the so-called list of Projects of Common Interest. They are eligible for funding from a program designed to boost energy, transport and digital infrastructure. The fund for the 2021-2027 period allocates a budget of €5.8 billion to the energy sector. “Billions of euros are bound to be wasted on 30 major pieces of gas infrastructure," campaigners said, highlighting the EastMed pipeline — a project to create a 1,900-kilometer (1,180-mile) pipeline to connect Eastern Mediterranean offshore gas fields to Greece and Italy. Supporters of the gas projects argue that they would improve Europe’s energy security, particularly in the context of energy sanctions taken against Russia for its war in Ukraine. The bloc is seeking alternatives to decrease its dependence on Russian gas, which accounts for about 40% of the EU’s gas consumption. The environmental groups said they have launched their action using a procedure allowing individuals and independent organizations to request an administrative review of legal acts adopted by EU institutions or bodies. They requested that the EU commission review the decision that justified the inclusion of gas projects, and threatened to ask the Court of Justice of the EU to rule on the matter if it does not amend its decision “This list amounts to a VIP pass for fossil gas in Europe, when we should be talking about its phase-out,” said Guillermo Ramo, a lawyer for the ClientEarth group. “The Commission did not consider the impact of methane emissions derived from gas infrastructure projects — in spite of evidence that these are substantial. That’s unlawful as it directly clashes with the EU’s own climate laws and its legal obligations under the Paris Agreement.”
Environmentalists Taking Legal Action On 30 EU-Backed Gas Projects -Four environmentalist organizations are starting legal action to end support for 30 EU-backed proposed gas projects. The four organizations – Friends of the Earth Europe, ClientEarth, Food & Water Action Europe, and CEE Bankwatch Network – said that the EU Commission has given these climate-destructive projects VIP status, in contradiction to its legal obligations. According to a statement by Friends of the Earth Europe, the EU Commission draws up a list of priority energy infrastructure projects deemed beneficial to the whole bloc every other year. Infrastructure on the “Projects of Common Interest” list gains fast-tracked permits and eligibility for EU funds. “Billions of [dollars] are bound to be wasted on 30 major pieces of gas infrastructure like the EastMed pipeline – a $7.5 billion, a 1,180-mile gas pipeline that will connect Eastern Mediterranean offshore gas fields from Israel and Cyprus to Italy via Greece,” the organization said. The groups have been able to start legal action through a request for internal review – a mechanism now open for use by NGOs and the public after a major reform of EU access to justice laws last year. The four organizations requested that the EU Commission review the decision that approved the PCI list and gave 30 proposed gas projects priority status. If the Commission refuses to amend its decision, the organizations will be able to ask the Court of Justice of the EU to rule. “This list amounts to a VIP pass for fossil gas in Europe when we should be talking about its phase-out. The Commission did not consider the impact of methane emissions derived from gas infrastructure projects – despite evidence that these are substantial. That’s unlawful as it directly clashes with the EU’s climate laws and its legal obligations under the Paris Agreement,” ClientEarth lawyer Guillermo Ramo said. Friends of Earth added that methane was the main component of fossil gas, with a global warming potential over 85 times higher than that of CO2 over 20 years. Yet, its impact when planning gas infrastructure is not considered. The environmental organizations argue the EU’s decision to support gas infrastructure puts the EU’s climate and energy goals under threat. Experts have clearly said no new gas or other fossil fuel developments should be built if we are to limit warming to 1.5C. The list also comes as Europe faces a gas price crisis, caused in part by over-reliance on price-volatile gas. Despite this, the EU Commission’s REPowerEU strategy plans to unleash over $10 billion in new fossil gas infrastructure. Some studies point out that the EU can end imports of all Russian fossil gas by 2025 – two years earlier than the European Commission’s current target of 2027 – without building new gas infrastructure or delaying the phase-out of coal, the organization explained. “The EastMed pipeline is a disaster for communities and the climate. It is not in the interests of local people in the region who will bear the costs of fossil fuel lock-in and the harm to the ecologically sensitive Mediterranean Sea. All along the route of the EastMed pipeline people are saying no to new fossil fuel infrastructure and yes to climate justice and peace. EU funding must focus on supporting projects that implement just, fair, safe, and renewable energy solutions,” Natasa Ioannou, climate campaigner with Friends of the Earth Cyprus, said. The European Commission now has up to 22 weeks to reply. The result could be a judgment clarifying how the EU should take the climate impacts of infrastructure into account.
Huge mystery spill detected in Baltic off Swedish coast - A massive spill of an unknown substance has been detected in the Baltic Sea off the coast of Sweden, the country’s coastguard said on Thursday. Covering a surface area of 30 sq miles (77 sq km) in both Swedish and Finnish waters, the spill was detected on Wednesday in the Bothnian Sea. “What the spill consists of is still not clear but it is not mineral oil, and there is currently no immediate threat of landfall,” the coastguard said in a statement. It said it had mapped the spill using planes and collected samples, adding that it would not be able to comment on which measures to deploy until after the samples had been analysed. A preliminary investigation into environmental crimes has also been launched. “Among other things, it is being investigated which ships have been in the area and what cargo they have had,” the coastguard said. Later on Thursday, it said the spill was no longer visible and that spills other than oil were increasing. “New types of fuel being transported at sea are increasing - for instance biofuel - and when in contact with water, they exhibit a great variety of behaviours which makes it more complicated to quickly establish what substance it is,” Jonatan Tholin, head of the coast guard investigation, said in a statement.
France Looking To UAE As Replacement For Russian Oil, Diesel - France is talking to the United Arab Emirates about the supply of oil and diesel as it seeks alternatives to Russian energy sources, Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said on Sunday. The minister said France also planned to accelerate investment in the transition to cleaner energy, such as speeding up the roll-out of offshore wind farms, to increase the country’s independence. “We are looking for substitutes to the supply of gas or diesel from Russia,” Le Maire said during an interview with CNews TV and Europe1 radio. “For example, the United Arab Emirates can be a solution, at least temporarily, to replace Russian oil and diesel. These are discussions that have already begun with the United Arab Emirates.” The European Union approved a sixth package of sanctions against Russia over the war in Ukraine last week that included a partial ban on Russian oil imports. French President Emmanuel Macron said that Russian oil imports to the EU would be cut by about 92% by the end of the year as a result of the agreement. He also said an embargo on Russian gas must not be ruled out. “We must also free ourselves from gas, because Russian gas today, we must get our autonomy back as quickly as possible as Vladimir Putin doesn’t like the European project,” Breton said. “For years, he’s done everything to divide Europe. Now he’s using gas precisely to divide us.”
Gas traders rush to secure LNG tankers - The world’s largest gas traders are scrambling to secure liquefied natural gas tankers ahead of winter after sanctions on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine triggered a reshaping of global energy flows. LNG shipowners and brokers say an unusually early annual rush is under way for the likes of the UK’s Shell, France’s TotalEnergies and China’s Unipec to secure enough shipping capacity to transport the superchilled fuel during the peak winter demand season. Rates to charter an LNG tanker for a year are trading near their highest level in a decade at $120,000 per day, up more than 50 per cent on a year ago, according to Clarksons Platou Securities.The market boom comes after the EU vowed to reduce its dependence on Russian gas by two-thirds by the end of the year and import an extra 50bn cubic meters of LNG. Shipowners say Total has been particularly active in shopping for LNG carriers to rent for between three and five years, a longer period than usual. Total said it did not comment on market rumours.“The market has exploded. It’s very hard to find any ships with length [of availability] in the market. It’s going through the roof,” said Oystein Kalleklev, head of Flex LNG and Avance Gas, two LNG shipping groups. As the capacity crunch worsens, the success of LNG traders this winter will hinge on securing enough ships to maximise profits from high prices. “We have cargoes we can’t find ships for,” said one shipbroker. In recent years shipping bottlenecks have hindered the delivery of LNG to consuming markets in Asia and Europe. The rush for ships usually takes place in late summer in the northern hemisphere but this year it has already kicked off and traders are seeking to lower rates by agreeing to longer rental periods, according to industry executives. The scramble to secure LNG vessels comes ahead of new global shipping emission regulations next year, potentially decreasing supply further, and as East Asian shipyards struggle to launch new LNG carriers quickly enough. Brokers say the higher-value cargo resulting from the rise in gas prices has pushed up demand for modern vessels. Older vessels have fallen out of favour because they use turbine engines powered by the boil-off vapour from the LNG — essentially using their cargo as fuel. “It’s getting quite complex to get the right ships for the cargoes,” said another shipbroker, referring to trading companies’ demands for the larger modern ships. Golar LNG this week leased a floating storage and regasification unit — a special subset of LNG vessels used as import terminals — to Italian gas grid operator Snam for $350mn. Staubo said limited availability of FSRUs meant conversions of LNG carriers would be needed to meet the surge in European demand for regasification, adding to pressure on the LNG shipping market.
EU Sanctions on Russia Oil Will Sustain Inflationary Pressures -EU sanctions on Russian oil will sustain current inflationary pressures, though exemptions and the potential for piecemeal enforcement could weaken their impact. That’s according to a report from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry research sent to Rigzone earlier this month, which outlined that the EU’s sixth sanctions package on Russia, combined with existing plans, implies an end to over 90 percent of Russian oil sales to the EU by the end of 2022. The report noted that this will further constrain energy supply, sustaining inflationary pressures in Europe. It added however, that the latest sanctions include multiple exemptions, grace periods, and caveats. “For example, Hungary will still be permitted to purchase Russian oil via tankers in the event that its pipeline exports via Ukraine are disrupted,” the report stated. “While these are designed to shield the more vulnerable European economies in Central and Eastern Europe from a sudden supply shock, they also create space for national authorities seeking to effectively circumvent some of the sanctions,” the report added. The report also warned that divisions over further sanctions will grow, adding that the partial oil ban “brings the political willingness of the EU to sanction Russia close to its apex”. “While some EU officials said they will seek to expand the oil embargo to pipeline exports as well, this continues to be resisted by the Hungarian, Slovak, and Czech governments (each of which wields a veto power),” the report stated. “Similarly, calls for an additional sanctions package to ban Russian gas imports by more hardline states such as Estonia were met with pushback from most other states. This suggests that the EU will increasingly struggle to pass any significant new sanctions, and will instead focus on enforcement of existing sanctions,” the report added. Fitch Solutions’ report highlighted that the risk of Russian retaliation via gas cut-offs will increase somewhat but added that Germany, Italy, and other large and/or dependent economies will likely maintain their supplies. “The oil embargo will prove financially painful for Russia over the medium term, given that Moscow depends on oil revenues for a significant share of government finances,” the report stated. “This will lead the Russian government to seek to ease sanctions pressure, potentially by threatening to disrupt gas exports to Europe,” the report continued. “Russia could be forced into economically damaging shut-ins of its gas wells in the event of a full-scale stoppage of gas exports to Europe, making it unlikely,” the report went on to state.
Goodbye gasoline cars? EU lawmakers vote to ban new sales from 2035 - European lawmakers have voted to ban the sale of new diesel and gasoline cars and vans in the EU from 2035, representing a significant shot in the arm to the region's ambitious green goals. On Wednesday, 339 MEPs in the European Parliament voted in favor of the plans, which had been proposed by the European Commission, the EU's executive branch. There were 249 votes against the proposal, while 24 MEPs abstained. It takes the European Union a step closer to its goal of cutting emissions from new passenger cars and light commercial vehicles by 100% in 2035, compared to 2021. By 2030, the target is an emissions reduction of 50% for vans and 55% for cars. The Commission has previously said passenger cars and vans account for roughly 12% and 2.5% of the EU's total CO2 emissions. MEPs will now undertake negotiations about the plans with the bloc's 27 member states. The U.K., meanwhile, wants to stop the sale of new diesel and gasoline cars and vans by 2030. It will require, from 2035, all new cars and vans to have zero tailpipe emissions. The U.K. left the EU on Jan. 31, 2020. Dutch MEP Jan Huitema, who is part of the Renew Europe Group, welcomed the result of Wednesday's vote. "I am thrilled that the European Parliament has backed an ambitious revision of the targets for 2030 and supported a 100% target for 2035, which is crucial to reach climate neutrality by 2050," he said. Others commenting on the news included Alex Keynes, clean vehicles manager at Brussels-based campaign group Transport & Environment. "The deadline means the last fossil fuel cars will be sold by 2035, giving us a fighting chance of averting runaway climate change," Keynes said. He also argued that the plans provide the car industry with the certainty it needed to "ramp up production of electric vehicles, which will drive down prices for drivers." For its part, the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association said it was "concerned that MEPs voted to set in stone a -100% CO2 target for 2035." Oliver Zipse, who is the president of the ACEA and CEO of BMW, said his industry was "in the midst of a wide push for electric vehicles, with new models arriving steadily." "But given the volatility and uncertainty we are experiencing globally day-by-day, any long-term regulation going beyond this decade is premature at this early stage," Zipse added. "Instead, a transparent review is needed halfway in order to define post-2030 targets." The EU has said it wants to be carbon neutral by 2050. In the medium term, it wants net greenhouse gas emissions to be cut by at least 55% by the year 2030, which the EU calls its "Fit for 55" plan.
Hungary says it's impossible for Europe to ban Russian gas anytime soon. Putin agrees - Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto has ruled out the prospect of a Russian gas ban in the European Union's next package of sanctions, saying it would be "impossible." Landlocked Hungary is overwhelmingly dependent on Russian hydrocarbons.Szijjarto's comments come as President Vladimir Putin says he believes the West will not be able to wean itself off Russian oil and gas for several years.The EU had sought to impose a total ban on Russian crude in a bid to cripple Putin's war machine over the Kremlin's onslaught in Ukraine. The bloceventually agreed late last month to a partial oil embargo in its long-delayed sixth package of sanctions against Russia.The compromise will see a ban on Russian oil brought into the bloc by sea, with an exemption carved out for imports delivered by pipeline following opposition from Hungary.Speaking to CNBC's Charlotte Reed on Thursday on the sidelines of the OECD's Ministerial Council Meeting in Paris, France, Szijjarto said: "When we impose sanctions, then we have to make sure that those sanctions are hurting more those against whom we impose the sanctions than ourselves.""We have to have a very clear position on the war, which we do have, we condemn Russia for this military aggression. We stand with Ukraine. But we have to take into consideration reality as well," he added. Szijjarto spoke of his frustration that Hungary had been portrayed as a country reluctant to punish Russia's war in Ukraine, pointing to the fact that Russia currently supplies 65% of Hungary's oil and 85% of its gas supplies.Putin on Thursday said Russia would not be "concreting over their oil wells" at a time when the West remains reliant on its energy sources, according to comments translated by the BBC."The volume of oil is decreasing on the world market, prices are rising," he said. "Company profits are rising." Moscow pledged to find other importers for its oil shortly after the EU imposed a partial embargo on Russian crude.Roughly 36% of the EU's oil imports come from Russia, a country that plays an outsized role in global oil markets. Russia is the world's third-largest oil producer, behind the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, and the world's largest exporter of crude to global markets. It is also a major producer and exporter of natural gas.
Kazakhstan Sees Oil Exports Constrained Due To Sanctions On Russia - Rising costs and sanctions on Russia have lowered the profitability of oil exports for Kazakhstan’s state oil and gas firm KazMunayGas, which has been forced to accept discounts on its crude being carried via the Russian pipeline network. The CPC pipeline carries oil from Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oilfield to export infrastructure along the Black Sea coast. Most of the crude oil carried by the CPC pipeline belongs to Russia, Kazakhstan, and international oil majors such as Chevron. It remains a vital crude oil artery for Kazakhstan, accounting for two-thirds of the country’s crude oil exports. However, after the Western sanctions against Russia over Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, Kazakhstan has had to accept discounts on the crude it sells as buyers have generally shunned exports out of Russia, KazMunayGas’s deputy executive chairman Dauren Karabayev said earlier this week, as carried by Upstream. KazMunayGas reported on Tuesday increased revenues and profits for the first quarter of 2022, but the net profit rose by just 9 percent year over year despite soaring crude prices, as operating and tax costs other than income tax soared in Q1. KazMunayGas and Kazakhstan also went through a month-long outage at two out of three terminals loading crude via the Caspian pipeline between the end of March and the end of April. Kazakhstan is now rebranding the name of its crude to avoid being associated with crude from Russia when it loads exports from Russian ports. Kazakhstan exports are not under sanctions, but buyers have been cautious about the origin of crude loading from Russian ports.
Kazakhstan Could Be Forced To Halt Gas Exports In 2023 -The head of Kazakhstan’s national gas company sounded the alarm bells Monday over a looming energy crisis, suggesting that the country may be forced to halt gas exports in 2023. Citing expectations of a gas shortage in 2023-2024, QazaqGaz CEO Sanzhar Zharkeshov told the Kazakh parliament on Monday that the country would not be able to meet soaring demand. "We expect a shortage of gas starting from 2024. The domestic demand is anticipated to be 1.7 billion cubic meters higher than the existing gas resources. If no urgent measures are taken, the exports of gas will need to be stopped in 2023,"Russian Interfax quoted Zharkeshov as saying.The QazaqGaz head cited mounting requests for gas supply from large customers ranging from coal-to-gas power plant conversion projects to new gas and chemical complexes and other large commercial customers. Citing the need for “urgent measures”, Zharkeshov is calling for an increase in Kazakhstan’s commercial gas reserve base from 2022 to 2030, with a shifting of available reserves to the domestic market this year. At the same time, Kazakh Energy Minister Bolat Akchulakov told parliament that domestic gas consumption growth is rising 7% annually. The Energy Minister predicted that the country would suffer from domestic gas shortages and be forced into dependency on imports by 2025, Kazinform reported. Gas consumption in Kazakhstan grew by 4.8 billion cubic meters between 2017 and 2021, the Minister said. In an effort to boost gas production and stave off a domestic gas crisis, the Kazakh Energy Ministry has proposed a package of measures to reduce the tax burden on new gas projects. Those measures would include fiscal preferences for gas projects with exemption from tax. More specifically, they would include exemption from corporate income tax for 10 years from the start of production, as well as exemption from export customs duties for the same period.
Israel Moving Energean Power FPSO To Karish Field Angers Lebanon Israel has moved a production vessel to a natural gas field that’s partly claimed by Lebanon, as the Israeli government looks to boost supplies of the fuel to Europe. The ship -- known as a floating production, storage and offloading vessel -- arrived at the Karish offshore field on Sunday and should start operating by September, the Israeli energy ministry said in a statement. The gas flows will “significantly strengthen Israel’s supply surplus and energy security,” said Energy Minister Karine Elharrar. The field “positions Israel as a natural gas power, and will make it possible to increase natural gas exports” to Egypt and other countries in the region. Lebanon criticized the move, though Israel says the FPSO is outside of a disputed border area. Lebanese President Michel Aoun said in a tweet on Sunday that negotiations to demarcate the maritime boundary are ongoing and that “any activity in the disputed area” would be a “hostile act.” Hezbollah Threat Israel’s navy is preparing for possible attacks on the vessel from Hezbollah, Israeli public broadcaster Kan News reported. Hezbollah, a Lebanese political party and militant group, is classified as a terrorist organization by the US. The area will be secured by missile-defense systems, ships and submarines, according to Kan News. Israel and Lebanon have held a series of US-brokered talks in recent years to try and resolve the dispute. The negotiations are complicated by the fact Lebanon doesn’t officially recognize Israel. London-listed Energean Plc, set to operate Karish, has said gas should start flowing by the third quarter. The field will complement Israeli production from the nearby deposits of Leviathan and Tamar.
India Seeks Even More Russian Oil - India’s demand for cheap Russian crude is insatiable as some of the largest Indian refiners are looking to negotiate six-month supply deals with Russia’s oil giant Rosneft at a time when Western buyers avoid dealing with Moscow’s crude, sources with knowledge of the Indian firms’ plans told Bloomberg on Monday.State-owned refiners Indian Oil Corporation, Hindustan Petroleum, and Bharat Petroleum, and private firms including conglomerate Reliance Industries, as well as partly-Rosneft-owned Nayara Energy, are among those seeking additional supply from Rosneft, Bloomberg’s sources say. The terms of the deals are still being negotiated, but it is expected that Rosneft would handle the insurance and shipping coverage. The additional purchases, if agreed, would add to the other deals under which India buys Russian crude, according to Bloomberg’s sources.Indian imports of Russia oil are not illegal per se, but India has drawn the attention of the Western allies that seek to cripple Russian oil revenues.With Russian crude selling at a record discount relative to Dated Brent, the cheap Russian oil is attracting India’s price-sensitive buyers to the point that Russia became the fourth largest oil supplier to India in April, moving up from the 10th place in March, according to shipment-tracking data compiled by Reuters.The significant increase in India’s purchases of Russian crude has already drawn the attention of the United States, which has reportedly sent a U.S. federal government official to discuss U.S. sanctions on Russia and try to convince India to reduce its purchases of Russian oil.India, the world’s third-largest crude importer which relies on imports for more than 80 percent of its oil consumption, has seen a surge in its imports of Russian crude since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in late February.
India Looking To Increase Russian Oil Imports From Rosneft -India is looking to double down on its Russian oil imports with state-owned refiners eager to take more heavily-discounted supplies from Rosneft PJSC as international buyers turn down dealings with Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine. State processors are collectively working on finalizing and securing new six-month supply contracts for Russian crude to India, said people with knowledge of the companies’ procurement plans. Cargoes are being sought on a delivered basis from Rosneft, with the seller set to handle shipping and insurance matters, they said. These supply agreements, if concluded, will be separate and on top of shipments that India already buys from Russia via other deals. Details on volumes and pricing are still being negotiated with Indian banks set to fully finance all cargoes, said the people who asked not to be identified as discussions are confidential. Indian refiners will increasingly procure supplies directly from Russian companies such as Rosneft as top international traders like Glencore Plc wind up their dealings, they added. The state refiners include Indian Oil Corp, Hindustan Petroleum and Bharat Petroleum, while private processors are Reliance Industries and Nayara Energy, which is partly owned by Rosneft. Procurement activities for state and private companies are done independently. Spokespeople at the three largest state-owned companies couldn’t immediately comment when contacted. Both state and privately-owned refineries in India have been ramping up purchases of Russian crude as sanctions and trade restrictions rolled out by the US, UK and European Union have caused most buyers to flee and offer levels to crash. An unprecedented amount of Russian crude was heading to India and China last month as European buyers scrambled for replacements and reached as far as the United Arab Emirates for alternatives. The ensuing panic and rerouting of global oil flows have lifted prices by more 20% since late-February when Russia invaded Ukraine. Refiners in Asia’s second-largest oil consumer have been enjoying elevated profits from turning cheap crude into fuels that are sold domestically and also in the export market to customers in Europe and the US. Russian supplies form just part of India’s overall basket of crude oil feedstock, alongside other long-term as well as spot purchases from the Middle East and Africa. The potential ramp-up of Russian crude purchases will likely weigh on the South Asian nation’s spot imports, said the people. India has bought more than 40 million barrels of Russian oil between late-February and early-May, which comes to about 20% more than flows for all of 2021, according to Bloomberg calculations based on trade data. Russian oil arrivals into India for May were at 740,000 barrels a day, up from 284,000 barrels in April and 34,000 barrels a year earlier, according to data from Kpler. Although India’s purchases of Russian crude aren’t illegal or in breach of any sanctions, the country has come under pressure from the Biden administration and EU to stop doing business with Moscow in order to cut off the Kremlin’s access to oil revenue and funds. The Asian nation has reiterated that its volume of Russian imports are minuscule as compared to Europe’s purchases, and just a tiny fraction of the country’s total consumption. “We don’t send people out there saying go buy Russian oil, we send people saying go buy oil,
Cash-Strapped Sri Lanka Turns To Russia To Quench Thirst For Oil -A broke and extremely cash-strapped Sri Lanka has turned to Russia for cheap oil, as much of the western world shuns Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine while savvy eastern nations such as India and China take advantage of a bifurcated oil market to buy as much crude as they can at a price that is roughly $30 below spot. Trapped in the worst economic crisis in its history, the South Asian country said last weekend that it would pay $72 million for 90,000 tons of Russian crude ordered via a Dubai-based company and docked at Colombo for weeks, the Nikkei reported. Sri Lanka's first purchase of Russian oil since the outbreak of the war in Europe gave a new lease of life to a refinery in Sapugaskanda, just outside the commercial capital, which had been shut since March.It also highlighted how the country's woes have given Russia an opening. Sri Lanka has already kicked off discussions with Moscow about directly importing crude oil, although it is unclear where the funds for such shipments would come from (spoiler alert: China). Russia has yet to announce any credit line for its South Asian customer.Sri Lanka needs $554 million to import oil for the month of June alone, according to Power and Energy Minister Kanchana Wijesekera.Experts say that while Sri Lanka's move to take Russian oil may raise eyebrows, the country has little room to be choosy about its trade partners as it suffers from a severe fuel shortage, daily power cuts and surging living costs. Furthermore, Russian oil continues to be traded at a steep discount to global prices.
No Gas, Oil In Highly Anticipated Sasanof Well Off Australia Australia’s Western Gas hasn’t found any commercial hydrocarbons in its highly anticipated exploration Sasanof-1 well located offshore Australia. The Sasanof-1 exploration well is in exploration permit WA-519-P, in Commonwealth waters approximately 130 miles northwest of Onslow Western Australia. Western Gas is the operator of this prospect with a 52.5 percent interest and its partners are Global Oil and Gas with a 25 percent, and Prominence Energy with a 12.5 percent. The remaining 10 percent interest was acquired by Clontarf Energy in May, just before the drilling of Sasanof began. The Valaris MS-1 rig spud the well in late May and drilling through the target reservoir section happened over the weekend. Prominence Energy, Western Gas’ partner, said that the Sasanof-1 exploration well was drilled to a total depth of 7,840 feet RMDT by the Valaris MS-1 rig without incident. The company added that no commercial hydrocarbons were intersected and that the well would now be plugged and permanently abandoned. Rig de-mobilization activities will begin after that. “We are obviously disappointed with the result of the well but would like to thank our shareholders for their support, and to commend Western Gas and all the service providers that have enabled the drilling of this well,” .
Authorities hold emergency meeting over “heavy oil spill” - The National Environment Agency (NEA), Gambia Maritime Administration (GMA), Public Utility and Regulatory Authority (PURA), and other key stakeholder institutions recently held an emergency meeting amid the incidence of Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO) spill during the discharge operations from the vessel (MT FT STURLA) which was conducted on Saturday, 28th May. 2022. A statement obtained by The Point stated that upon receipt of the information from various sources, the NEA, GMA, and PURA sent personnel to confirm the situation and conducted an initial assessment of the incident. Through the coordination of PURA, an emergency meeting of stakeholders was held on Sunday 29th May 2022, where the management of Gam Petroleum was summoned to explain the circumstances leading to the oil spill. During the briefing, stakeholders were informed from preliminary figures indicated that 1,501.334 metric tons HFO were discharged from the ship but the fuel depot just recorded 1,430.469 metric tons as received. The statement indicated that based on the fact that the difference between the quantities pumped by the ship and the amount received by the depot was roughly 70.865 metric tons which approximately translates to 70,865 liters, it is assumed that the difference is the quantities of HFO discharged into the sea, caused by a ruptured submerged pipe through which the HFO was discharged to the shore tank GP. The authorities informed the public that GMA, NEA, PURA, GPA, and other relevant stakeholders are aware of the incident and necessary actions are being taken to address the situation.
Nam Dairies faces N$24m lawsuit over oil spill - The Namibian THE City of Windhoek is suing Namibia Dairies for N$24 million over alleged negligence and causing an oil spill that contaminated Windhoek's water three years ago. The municipality – through its lawyer Patrick Kauta from Dr Weder, Kauta & Hoveka Inc – claims in a summons dated 18 January 2022 that it had suffered the loss of production of water for the city and damages as a result of the oil spill. Namibia Dairies, which is owned by Ohlthaver & List (O&L) is defending the lawsuit in the High Court. The company, headed by Sven Thieme as chairman, has appointed Mark Kutzner of Engling, Stritter & Partners as its lawyers in this case. The spill took place on 3 February 2019 after a safety valve in a boiler room at Namibia Dairies' Avis factory in Windhoek failed. According to the city, around 24 000 litres of heavy fuel oil spilled through a filter and filled the boiler room, the city said. “This in turn caused heavy fuel oil to drain into the storm water drains and into the municipal sewer line and heavy fuel oil to spill into the river adjacent to the factory,” Kauta said in the summons. A municipality assessment at the time said that fish in the maturation ponds at the Gammams water treatment plant died due to a lack of oxygen, and the operations of two contractors at water works to produce renewable energy and fertiliser were stopped. “The oil spill caused physical damage to the sewer line in the form of residual heavy fuel oil which was attached to the concrete surfaces of the sewer line leading to damage to the sewerage system and the environment,” Kauta said. The city said the oil spill was unlawful as it contravened the Water Resources Management Act and resulted in damage to the city's property. The city wants the payment of N$24 million at an interest rate of 9,75% from the date of summons to date of payment. The city also wants Namibia Dairies to pay for the costs it incurs during the lawsuit. The summons shows that the oil spill led to the complete shutdown of the Gammans sewer line for 19 days and as a result, no water treatment could be carried out. “Contaminated sewage flooded the lower lying areas of the Gammams sewer line premises, which in turn caused flooding to two other processes (biogas production and sludge belt press) to be shut down for 32 days,” Kauta wrote. The summons added that the oil spill caused the city to suffer damages of around N$7 million as a result of cleaning up the spill and fixing the damage caused. The city is said to have suffered damages of N$17 million in water lost for production from 3 to 22 February 2019 for 20 days at waste water treatment tariff. The Namibian reported in February 2019 that the closure of the two plants had forced the city to buy 25% of its water directly from NamWater. The city accused Namibia Dairies of being negligent.
Libya’s Biggest Oilfield Resumes Production -- Libya’s largest oilfield, Sharara, restarted oil production this weekend following weeks of shutdown over protests, sources in Libya told Argus on Monday.Sharara, with a capacity to pump 300,000 barrels per day (bpd), was closed in the middle of April after a blockade from protesters demanding a transfer of powers from Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, who has been refusing to step down for newly sworn-in eastern Prime Minister Fathi Bashaga. Disputes over the distribution of oil revenues have also led to blockades at several Libyan oilfields, including Sharara.In April, Libya loaded just 819,000 bpd of crude from its ports, down from nearly 1 million in March and the lowest volume since October 2020, per tanker-tracking data that Bloomberg is monitoring.Oil exports from the OPEC producer exempted from the OPEC+ deal were depressed in May, too, as the blockade and political disputes continued.Libya expects to open all its oil loading terminals after it sets up a mechanism for a fair distribution of the country’s oil revenues among the regions, Parliament Speaker Aqila Saleh told U.S. ambassador and Special Envoy to Libya, Richard Norland, Benghazi-based news outlet The Libya Update reported last month.The Parliament-backed Libyan Prime Minister Fathi Bashagha, who was elected in February, said on Twitter in early May that Libya’s oilfields were expected to reopen soon, after militias agreed to lift the siege on oil facilities.However, it took another three weeks for production at Sharara to resume.According to Argus’ sources, production at the biggest Libyan oilfield restarted at a rate of 180,000 bpd on June 4. Sharara’s nearby 70,000 bpd El Feel oilfield remains closed as of Monday. Volatile production in Libya has added to the huge uncertainties in the global oil market in terms of supply. Just last week, Libya lost 22,000 bpd of production due to a pipeline leak at the Sarir Tobruk oilfield, blamed on delayed budgets that have left the operating company unable to maintain its oil transport infrastructure.
Libya’s Oil Exports To Dip Again Amid Renewed Port Blockades - Libyan oil production and exports are set to drop again after two export terminals were blocked on Thursday, and protesters threatened on Friday to close another oil port. Groups of protesters closed the Ras Lanuf and Es Sider oil export terminals on Thursday, demanding a transfer of powers from Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, who has been refusing to step down for newly sworn-in eastern Prime Minister Fathi Bashaga. The Parliament-backed Bashagha has the support from eastern Libya and its east-based parliament, while Dbeibah is based in Tripoli. The Parliament voted in Bashaga for prime minister earlier this year, but Dbeibah has refused to step down. The political rift, also because of the distribution of oil revenues, has already crippled Libyan production and exports in April and May.Libya’s largest oilfield, Sharara, restarted oil production this weekend following weeks of shutdown over protests, but was closed again just a day after reopening.The blockades are now spreading to the Ras Lanuf and Es Sider terminals, while a group threatened to close the Hariga port on Friday, engineers told Reuters on Friday. According to analysts and diplomats who spoke to Reuters, the blockades of oil ports have been mostly instigated by factions in the east, including eastern strongman Khalifa Haftar and the Libyan National Army (LNA) he leads. According to Reuters estimates, Libya’s oil production had already halved to around 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) in May, after the Sharara and El Feel oilfields were closed and added to other blockaded oil infrastructure in the country. The resumption of mass oil port blockades in the wild-card OPEC producer exempted from the OPEC+ deal comes at a time of a tight global market, bans on Russian oil in the West, and robust global demand in the summer driving season despite record-high fuel prices.
UAE Says Oil Prices Are Nowhere Near Peak Yet -Oil prices are “nowhere near” their peak as an impending rebound in Chinese demand threatens to strain a global market already pinched by tight supplies, said key OPEC member the United Arab Emirates. The comments serve as an acknowledgment that last week’s decision by the OPEC+ coalition to bolster output will give consumers little respite from the soaring cost of energy this summer. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is struggling to restore production as planned, with spare capacity confined to just a few members, the UAE minister conceded. “With the pace of consumption we have, we are nowhere near the peak because China is not back yet,” Energy Minister Suhail Al-Mazrouei said at a conference on Wednesday in Jordan. “China will come with more consumption.” Al-Mazrouei warned that without more investment across the globe, OPEC+ can’t guarantee sufficient oil supplies as demand fully recovers from the coronavirus pandemic. Prices can reach “unseen” levels if Russian oil and gas is completely taken off the market, he said. OPEC+ agreed last week to open its oil taps a little faster in the summer months. That modest supply boost amounts to just 0.4% of global demand over July and August and comes after several months in which the group has struggled to hit its production targets. “We’re lagging by almost 2.6 million barrels a day, and that’s a lot,” Al Mazrouei said. Only Saudi Arabia and the UAE have significant volumes of idle production capacity, but even that is only enough to offset a portion of the supply gap created by sanctions on Russia. “The situation is not very encouraging when it comes to the quantities that we can bring,” Al Mazrouei said. OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo echoed the UAE’s comments, stressing the lack of spare capacity in the group. “With the exception of two-three members, all are maxed out,” he told Bloomberg
OPEC+ Is Struggling With Oil Production Hikes, UAE Admits - The OPEC+ group is currently pumping 2.6 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil below its target, and efforts to boost output per the monthly plans are "not encouraging," the energy minister of one of OPEC's top producers, the United Arab Emirates, said on Wednesday. "According to last month's report, we have seen the conformity (to output cuts) of the OPEC+ group and the conformity was more than 200%," the UAE's Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said at an energy conference in Jordan as carried by Reuters. Since OPEC+ started reversing last year the record cuts from April 2020, the group has been consistently struggling to meet its production quota as many members lack spare capacity or investment to increase production. The UAE is actually one of the very few with some spare capacity, as is OPEC's top producer Saudi Arabia. The Saudis, OPEC's second-largest producer, Iraq, and the third-largest, the UAE, are believed to be the only producers with enough spare capacity. OPEC's African members Nigeria and Angola are struggling with their targets, while the leader of the non-OPEC producers in the pact, Russia, is trying to stop a production decline as its oil is now under sanctions, bans, and embargoes in the West. OPEC+ decided last week to accelerate its monthly oil production increase to nearly 650,000 bpd for July and August as the group looks to compensate for falling production in Russia amid expectations of strong fuel demand this summer. The higher monthly production hike was seen by the market as not enough to offset supply losses from Russia or to meet what is expected to be a strong summer fuel demand despite record fuel prices in many countries. China is gradually returning from lockdowns in some major cities, also supporting the outlook that demand will strengthen. At today's conference in Jordan, the UAE's al-Mazrouei said, "The risk is when China is back," referring to Chinese demand and OPEC+'s ability to supply as much crude to the world as its pact says.
OPEC+ output up after two months of declines, but quota shortfall grows: Platts survey - Crude oil production from OPEC and its Russia-led allies rebounded modestly in May from a steep drop in April but remains well short of its collective quotas, according to the latest Platts survey by S&P Global Commodity insights, highlighting the group’s continuing struggles with sanctions and unplanned outages. OPEC’s 13 members pumped 28.62 million b/d in May, down 180,000 b/d from April, including major losses in Nigeria and Libya, while nine other countries partnering with the producer group added 13.08 million b/d, a rise of 300,000 b/d, led by gains in Russia and Kazakhstan, the survey found. That is a net 120,000 b/d gain in the month by the entire OPEC+ alliance. But with production quotas rising monthly under the OPEC+ agreement, the group underproduced its target by 2.616 million b/d, with compliance at a lofty 182.5%, according to S&P Global calculations. Bar chart that illustrates modest output gains in may for for OPEC+ countries Russia, targeted by western sanctions since its invasion of Ukraine in late February, has been the biggest contributor to the alliance’s shortfalls, as its production has fallen significantly from pre-war levels. However it was able to regain some footing in May, boosting output by 150,000 b/d to 9.29 million b/d, compared to its quota of 10.549 million b/d, the survey found. Bar chart that illustrates modest output gains in may for for OPEC+ countries Exports of Russian crude have remained resilient in the face of the sanctions, with some buyers eager to snap up discounted cargoes. But analysts expect production to contract sharply in the months ahead, as the EU implements a ban on almost all seaborne Russian oil imports by year-end. Fellow non-OPEC producer Kazakhstan also saw a healthy bounce in May to 1.52 million b/d, thanks to repairs to its damaged CPC pipeline from storm damage in April, according to the survey. Kazakhstan exports some two-thirds of its crude via the pipeline. Volatile output With Russia impaired, OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia has over the past few months reclaimed its mantle as the group’s leading producer, pumping 10.45 million b/d in April, though that is below its quota of 10.549 million b/d. The world’s largest crude exporter saw its shipments down in the month, though some volumes were shunted into inventories and refinery runs were strong, market sources said.
Iran Might Get US OK To Flow More Oil Even Without Nuclear Deal The US may allow more sanctioned Iranian oil onto global markets even without a revival of the 2015 nuclear accord, according to the biggest independent crude trader. While a new agreement would limit Iran’s atomic activities and ease US sanctions on its energy exports, talks between Tehran and world powers have stalled since March. Oil traders are increasingly pessimistic that negotiators will strike a deal. Still, US President Joe Biden could decide that the need to bring down record-high pump prices ahead of November’s midterm elections outweighs the benefit of strictly enforcing sanctions, including by seizing more Iranian oil tankers. “Uncle Sam might just allow a little bit more of that oil to flow,” Mike Muller, head of Asia at Vitol Group, said Sunday on a podcast produced by Dubai-based Gulf Intelligence. “If the midterms are dominated by the need to get gas prices lower in America, turning a somewhat greater blind eye to the sanctioned barrels flowing out is probably something you might expect to see. US intervention in these flows has always been pretty sparse.” The US confiscated oil from an Iranian-flagged vessel off Greece last month, which was followed days later by Tehran detaining two Greek tankers in the Persian Gulf. But Washington’s move is unlikely to signal the start of more tanker seizures by the US, according to Muller. Iran has raised oil exports this year, most of them ending up in China. A new nuclear deal would lead to an additional 500,000 to 1 million barrels per day coming on to international markets, enough to weigh on prices, according to energy analysts. The Islamic Republic also has around 100 million barrels of oil in storage that could be sold down quickly. Crude prices have soared more than 50% this year to almost $120 a barrel, mostly because of the fallout of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While many Republicans and some Democrats oppose any lifting of Iranian sanctions, Biden is under plenty of pressure to lower gasoline prices, which have shot up to an average of more than $4.80 per gallon in the US. There’s little consensus about the direction of oil prices, according to Vitol, which traded 7.6 million barrels of crude and refined products a day in 2021. While supplies are tight, Washington’s release of strategic reserves is helping balance the market. Thursday’s decision by OPEC+ -- a 23-nation group of producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia -- to accelerate output increases is unlikely to have much impact, Muller said. That’s because many members will struggle to pump more, and Moscow’s exports could drop due to sanctions over the war in Ukraine. “The range of expert opinion out there has never been wider,” said Muller, who’s based in Singapore. “There are people who think the market’s going to $135-$140 a barrel. And there are people who think we’re going below $100 again.” There’s also a dichotomy emerging between richer and poorer countries, he said. Some in Asia such as Malaysia and Singapore are experiencing a demand rebound as coronavirus lockdowns ease. Others including Pakistan and Sri Lanka, which has defaulted on international bonds and is struggling to pay for fuel imports, are experiencing demand destruction.
Saudi Arabia cuts oil flows to China while meeting other requests - Saudi Arabia will provide some Chinese buyers with less crude than they asked for next month, while fulfilling requests from many other customers in Asia after OPEC+ pledged to speed up production hikes. Japan, South Korea, Thailand and India will get the oil volumes they had sought, with some even getting extra supplies, according to refinery officials who asked not to be identified as the information is private. State-run marketer Saudi Aramco typically doesn’t provide buyers with a reason why volumes are cut. Aramco didn’t immediately reply to an email seeking comment on the matter. Many Asian buyers asked Aramco for more oil during the so-called nomination process held this week as they sought alternatives to Russian varieties. China and India continue to be big buyers of Russian crudes after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, enjoying deep discounts for their willingness to keep importing grades such as flagship Urals and ESPO from the Far East. July supplies of Saudi oil were especially sought-after by many in Asia due to strong refining margins. Despite a higher-than-expected increase in prices from the kingdom, buyers are still finding its cargoes more affordable than arbitrage supplies from the North Sea and the US following a slump in benchmark prices in the Middle East versus London and US markers. At least three European refiners have received full contractual volumes for July delivery from Aramco, said refinery officials with knowledge of matter.
Why Saudi Arabia Isn’t Giving Up On Its Russian Oil Alliance -Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, and his Saudi counterpart, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, met at length last week in Riyadh after which they released statements highlighting: “The level of cooperation in the OPEC+ format.” The two ministers underlined the: “Stabilising effect that tight coordination between Russia and Saudi Arabia in this strategically-important area has on the global hydrocarbon market.” Shortly afterward, the OPEC+ alliance, comprising all the OPEC member states plus most notably Russia, announced a theoretical increase in crude oil production – of 648,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July and August, instead of by 432,000 bpd as previously agreed. In practice, as it also includes Russian exports that are already banned by the U.S. and are being banned in the E.U., the increase is meaningless. Subsequent Saudi assurances that any deficit in Russia’s output caused by the ban will be met by other OPEC states is similarly meaningless in practical terms, given enduring question marks over genuine output capabilities. Any residual notion that Saudi Arabia might be trying to alleviate the economic problems of many countries resulting from high oil prices was dispelled over the weekend, as the Kingdom raised its official selling price for its flagship Arab Light crude to Asia to a US$6.50 per barrel (pb) premium for July to the average of the Oman and Dubai benchmarks, up from a premium of US$4.40 pb in June. The net effect of OPEC+’s production increase, therefore, will be zero, which Saudi Arabia, Russia, and all other OPEC members, know perfectly well. So, why is Saudi, for so long a staunch ally of the U.S. after the landmark relationship deal made in 1945, now so resolutely sticking with Washington’s long-time nemesis, Russia, even with the invasion of Ukraine still in full swing?The core of the answer lies in the immediate aftermath of the 2014-2016 Oil Price War launched by Saudi Arabia with the specific intention of destroying – or at least disabling for as long a period as possible – the then-nascent U.S. shale oil sector. In 2014, the Saudis had correctly identified this sector as the biggest threat to its finances and political power – both of which were, and still are – founded exclusively on its oil resources. In addition, but incorrectly at that point, the Saudis believed that the U.S. intended to cease, or at least significantly scale back, its on-the-ground support for Saudi Arabia in the region as Washington’s principal bulwark there against the increasing influence of Iran, Russia, and China. These fears in Riyadh were being stoked at that time by the ongoing talks of a ‘nuclear deal’ between the major powers, led by the U.S. itself, and Iran – Saudi Arabia’s longstanding nemesis. These talks did indeed result less than a year later in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) deal that effectively brought Iran back into the mainstream of global political interplay. Due mainly to the remarkable, and unexpected, ability of much of the U.S.’s shale oil companies to survive with oil prices that had been pushed extremely low through OPEC overproduction, the 2014-2016 Oil Price War resulted in devastation for the economy of Saudi Arabia and for its brother states in OPEC. An additional negative result for Saudi Arabia was that it had lost its credibility as the de facto leader of OPEC and that OPEC had lost its credibility as the indomitable force in global oil markets. This meant that OPEC’s pronouncements on future oil supply and demand levels – and therefore, on pricing – had lost much of their potency to move markets in and of themselves and that their joint production deals were diminished in effectiveness.In the interim, many of the positive rationales on both sides of the core 1945 agreement between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia had disappeared. The U.S. did not trust Saudi Arabia anymore not to go after its shale oil sector. It also did not trust Saudi Arabia to try to keep oil prices within the US$35-75 per barrel (pb) of Brent price band that was ideal for Washington: the first number being the floor at which many U.S. shale producers could at least breakeven, if not make a slight profit, and the second number being the cap after which extremely serious negative economic and political threats begin to emerge.
IEA says high oil prices already damaging demand - Oil demand is already being hit by elevated crude prices but there are positive signals that consumption will hold up for now, the head of the International Energy Agency’s oil market division Toril Bosoni told S&P Global Commodity Insights in an interview. We believe that current prices are already impacting economic growth and oil demand,” Bosoni said on the sidelines of the S&P Global Executive Petroleum and Energy Conference held June 7 and 8. She acknowledged demand destruction was already a feature of the oil market, but noted consumers are constantly adjusting their demand to energy prices, incomes, consumer confidence and the value of competing energies. The IEA has been ratcheting down its 2022 oil demand forecast since the start of the year from 3.2 million b/d to 1.8 million b/d currently amid rising oil prices. The Dated Brent benchmark started the year below $80/b before climbing to a peak of close to $140/b in March on fears of reduced supply due to lost Russian barrels and tight oil product markets. But despite the downgrades, which were also related to China lockdowns and the Russia-Ukraine war, Bosoni believes there are good reasons for demand to be resistant to triple digit oil. Resistant demand “Demand in the US and Europe has been holding up better than expected… High savings rates and strong pent-up demand for travel is providing an offset to the impact of surging fuel prices for now,” Bosoni said. Key jet, gasoline and diesel prices as assessed by S&P Global’s Platts have risen by more than 50% since the start of 2022. With demand for summer travel likely to boost jet fuel demand, the US driving season set to guzzle gasoline and the summer use of air conditioners in the Middle East, pressure on oil products is going to get greater before it eases. Across the barrel, the demand sensitivity to higher crude prices could shrink consumption by 680,000 b/d this year if Brent averages $110/b, a 7% increase on the baseline Dated Brent assumption of $102.7/b, according to S&P Global. A further rise to average $120/b in 2022 would sideline more than 1.3 million b/d of demand, according to S&P Global. Transport fuels are set to feel the most pain from higher prices, with gasoline, jet and middle distillates making up 80% of the total oil demand impact, S&P Global estimates showed. Bosoni admitted the pandemic-related lockdowns in China “have had an even greater impact on demand than first thought,” with the world’s second-largest consumer having been a significant drag on the global demand outlook. However, she sees Chinese demand recovering in the second half of the year, “accelerating manufacturing and exports, boosting bunker requirements and diesel demand.”
Oil Bulls Emboldened By EU Sanctions And China Easing Lockdowns - By John Kemp, senior market analyst at Reuters - Portfolio investors have begun to turn bullish again towards petroleum as impending EU sanctions on Russia’s exports and easing lockdowns in China outweigh fears of a possible recession in Europe and North America.Hedge funds and other money managers purchased the equivalent of 32 million barrels in the six most important futures and options contracts in the week to May 31, according to exchange and regulatory data. Funds have been net buyers in two of the last three weeks, increasing their position by a total of 83 million barrels (15%) since May 10, the fastest comparable increase for four months.The latest week saw purchases across the board in Brent (+13 million barrels), NYMEX and ICE WTI (+7 million), European gas oil (+5 million), U.S. diesel (+3 million) and U.S. gasoline (+3 million).The combined position of 631 million barrels remains moderate, in only the 53rd percentile for all weeks since 2013..... but the ratio of long to short positions, at 6.54:1, displays a strongly bullish bias, in the 83rd percentile.On the supply side, the EU has approved a sixth sanctions package, phasing out most purchases of Russian crude and products, including distillates, by the end of 2022 or early 2023, which is likely to intensify shortages of both.On the demand side, China has eased the lockdown imposed on Shanghai, and the government’s zero-COVID strategy is being tempered by the need to support the economy, likely boosting consumption of crude and distillates.Those bullish signals more than offset continued fears of a business cycle slowdown or an outright recession in Europe and North America.In the United States, the most recent economic data shows growth has decelerated after last year’s exceptional post-epidemic rebound but still has considerable momentum, which will keep oil consumption high in the short term.Fund managers increased their position in middle distillates such as diesel and gas oil by 8 million barrels, the fastest increase for 17 weeks. Distillate inventories have continued to fall on the U.S. East Coast, reflecting the acute shortage throughout the North Atlantic basin caused by sanctions and cyclically high levels of manufacturing and freight activity.With China’s distillate consumption likely to increase as the government boosts domestic growth, while EU sanctions hit Russia’s distillate exports especially hard, this part of the market is set to tighten even further.
Citi And Barclays Capitulate On Bearish Crude Views, Raise Oil Price Forecasts -Two banks and big oil bears - Citi and Barclays - raised their oil price forecasts over the weekend, citing the effects of Russian crude oil sanctions and delays in the renewal of the Iran nuclear deal - without which there will be no meaningful increase in crude oil exported from Iran. Citi Research, which was one of the biggest bears on oil with bank strategist predicting $70 oil as recently as last week, raised its oil price forecast due to heavy delays in securing another Iranian nuclear deal, which will contribute to the tight market conditions for crude oil.Citi now sees sanction relief for Iran coming in the first quarter of 2023, adding 500,000 bpd in the first half and 1.3 million bpd over the second half. This is in contrast to its previous forecast, which assumed Iranian sanctions relief—and therefore additional crude oil—would come sometime mid-2022. Now that we are already in mid-June and the talks appear to have stalled, Citi’s previous scenario looks highly unlikely.Citi’s second-quarter 2022 Brent forecast is now seen at $113 per barrel—up from $99 per barrel in its previous forecast. Citi also raised its Q3 and Q4 forecast to $99 and $85 per barrel, respectively. For 2023, Citi lifted its Brent price forecast to $75—up $16 per barrel.Barclay’s also lifted its price forecast citing crude oil sanctions on Russia by the EU. Barclays now sees Brent prices averaging $111 this year and next—an increase of $11 for this year and $23 for next year. Barclay sees WTI at $108 for both years.Barclay’s estimate assumes Russia’s crude oil production will decrease by 1.5 million bpd by the end of the year, after European Union ambassadors approved last Thursday the plan to ban Russian seaborne imports of crude in six months and refined products in eight months. The sanctions package also includes a ban on tanker insurance for Russian shipments to third countries, to take effect six months after the package is formally adopted.
Brent climbs over $120 per barrel after Saudi Arabia raises crude prices - Oil futures gained on Monday, with Brent rising above $120 a barrel after Saudi Arabia raised prices for its crude sales in July, signalling tight supply even after OPEC+ producers agreed to accelerate output increases over the next two months. Brent crude firmed 68 cents, or 0.6%, to $120.40 a barrel at 0640 GMT after touching an intraday high of $121.95, extending a 1.8% gain from Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 61 cents, or 0.5%, at $119.48 a barrel after earlier hitting a three-month high of $120.99. It gained 1.7% on Friday. Saudi Arabia raised the July official selling price (OSP) for its flagship Arab light crude to Asia by $2.10 from June to $6.50 premium versus the average of the Oman and Dubai benchmarks, state oil producer Aramco said on Sunday. The July OSP is the highest since May, when prices hit all-time highs due to worries of disruption in supplies from Russia because of sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine. The price increase came despite a decision last week by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, together called OPEC+, to increase output in July and August by 648,000 barrels per day, or 50% more than planned. Iraq said on Friday it aimed to raise output to 4.58 million bpd in July. Oil producers are "making hay while the sun shines", Avtar Sandu, manager of commodities at Phillip Futures in Singapore said, adding that U.S. summer driving demand and easing of COVID-19 lockdowns in China were expected to keep prices high. The OPEC+ decision to bring forward output increases is widely seen as unlikely to meet demand as the increased allocation is spread across all members, including Russia, which is facing sanctions. "While that increase is sorely needed, it falls short of demand growth expectations, especially with the EU's partial ban on Russian oil imports also factored in," On Monday, Citibank and Barclays raised their price forecasts for 2022 and 2023 on tighter Russian supplies and the delayed return of Iranian oil. Citi analysts said reconfigured flows to Asia could mean Russian production and exports would not ultimately fall so much, but more in the range of 1 million to 1.5 million bpd. "Of 1.9 million bpd of European seaborne exports of crude oil, around 900,000 bpd could divert to other markets such as China/India or could stay in some European markets with limited access to non-Russian oil." Barclays expect Russian oil output to fall by 1.5 million bpd by end-2022. Separately, Italy's Eni and Spain's Repsol could begin shipping Venezuelan oil to Europe as soon as next month to make up for Russian crude, five people familiar with the matter told Reuters, resuming oil-for-debt swaps halted two years ago when Washington stepped up sanctions on Venezuela.
Crudes Soften With US Recession, Libya Supply in Focus -- Paring early morning advances, oil futures slipped in afternoon trade Monday as investors assessed risks of a potential recession in the United States ahead of the release of the consumer price index for May against supply disruption in Russia and Libya that could tip global oil markets further into deficit. Some 250,000 barrels per day (bpd) in Libya's oil production remain shut-in following last week's protests that disrupted operations at the country's largest oi field -- El Sharara with daily capacity of 300,000 barrels (bbl). Libya's National Oil Company said on Monday the oilfield has been partially restarted despite the ongoing threats of violence against its employees. El Sharara was closed in the middle of April after a blockade from protesters demanded a transfer of powers from Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, who has been refusing to step down, for newly sworn-in eastern Prime Minister Fathi Bashaga. Disputes over the distribution of oil revenues have also led to blockades at several Libyan oilfields, including Sharara. In April, Libya loaded just 819,000 bpd of crude from its ports, down from nearly 1 million in March and the lowest volume since October 2020, according to the tanker-tracking data analyzed by Bloomberg. The disruption in Libya coincides with re-opening of China's economy after months-long lockdown wiped off a large chunk of Asia's oil demand over March-May period. Asian oil demand is now forecast to strengthen as China cautiously emerges from the virus restrictions, with most long-term customers in Asia are expected to take their full contracted supply this summer. According to the wire services, some Asian buyers are planning to seek more crude from Saudi Arabia, even after the world's biggest exporter raised prices by more than expected for the region. Saudi state-owned oil producer Saudi Aramco raised its official selling prices of Arab light crude for Asian customers by $2.10 bbl in July compared with market expectations for a $1.50 bbl increase. These changes mean that Asian consumers will pay a $6.50 bbl premium for Aramco's crude oil over the average of the Oman and Dubai benchmarks. Saudi Aramco also hiked its prices for European and Mediterranean buyers, raising OSPs by $2.20 bbl and $2 bbl, respectively. In northern Europe and the Mediterranean, refiners will now pay a $4.30 and $3.90 premium bbl compared with the ICE Brent oil benchmark. Interestingly, Aramco left OSPs for U.S. refiners unchanged at premiums in the range of $7 bbl and $4.50 bbl. At settlement, NYMEX West Texas Intermediate for July delivery slipped $0.37 to $118.11 bbl, with losses accelerating post-settlement, while international crude benchmark Brent contract for August fell to $119.51 bbl. NYMEX RBOB July contract declined 5.92 cents to $4.1930 gallon and ULSD July futures gained 7.98 cents to $4.3601 a gallon.
Oil Prices Rise On Relaxed China COVID Curbs, Tight Supplies - Oil prices rose on Tuesday on an expected demand recovery in China as the world's second-biggest economy relaxes tough COVID-19 curbs, and on doubts that a higher output target by OPEC+ producers would ease tight supply, Trend reports with reference to Reuters . Brent crude futures were up 76 cents, or 0.6%, at $120.27 barrel at 0413 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 83 cents, or 0.7%, at $119.33 a barrel. The benchmark hit a three-month high of $120.99 on Monday. Beijing and commercial hub Shanghai have been returning to normal in recent days after two months of painful lockdowns to stem outbreaks of the Omicron variant. Traffic bans were lifted and restaurants were opened for dine-in service on Monday in most parts of Beijing. 'We could see a surge in fuel demand with cars back on roads in the major cities, and ports gradually returning to normal operation in China,' said Tina Teng, an analyst at CMC Markets. Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia raised the July official selling price (OSP) for its flagship Arab light crude to Asia by $2.10 from June to a $6.50 premium over Oman/Dubai quotes, just off an all-time peak recorded in May when prices hit highs due to worries of disruptions in Russian supplies. Last week, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies, together known as OPEC+, decided to boost output for July and August by 648,000 barrels per day, or 50% more than previously planned. The increased target was spread across all OPEC+ members. However, many members have little room to ramp up output, including Russia, which faces Western sanctions. 'While the new increased monthly targets continue to be driven by proportional contributions from all participants (including Russia), it is unrealistic to expect an increase close to the headline figure,' said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, in a note. Elsewhere, U.S. crude inventories likely fell last week, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles were seen up, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday.
WTI Oil Futures End at 3-Month High Ahead of Stock Data-- After choppy trading for most of the session, oil futures settled mixed Tuesday. Traders are waiting for the release of weekly inventory data in the United States, with market consensus calling for commercial crude oil inventories to have declined again during the first week of June as global inventories continued a destocking pattern heading into summer. U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates global oil inventories declined for each of the seven consecutive quarters from the third-quarter 2020 to the first quarter, leaving stockpiles well below the five-year average. In the United States, commercial oil inventories stand 15% below the five-year average after plunging more than 9 million barrels (bbl) over the past three weeks alone. Analysts expect domestic stockpiles to likely decline again, seen down 1.9 million bbl during the first week of June. Earlier in the session, oil complex came under selling pressure after The World Bank sharply downgraded its outlook for the global economy this year, pointing to the devastating impact of Russia's war in Ukraine, the prospect of widespread food shortages and concern over the potential return of "stagflation" -- a mix of high inflation and sluggish growth unseen for more than four decades. The World Bank slashed its global economic growth forecast to 2.9% this year, down from 4.1% seen in early January. The bank doesn't expect a much brighter outlook in 2023 and 2024 either, with annualized growth of just 3% for both years. For the United States alone, The World Bank has slashed its growth forecast to 2.5% this year from 5.7% in 2021 and from the 3.7% it had forecast in January. For the 19 European countries that share the euro currency, it downgraded the growth outlook to 2.5% this year from 5.4% last year and from the 4.2% it had expected in January. Separately, Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday that India's largest refiners are collectively working on finalizing and securing new six-month supply contracts with Russia's state-oil giant Rosneft. These supply agreements, if concluded, will be separate and on top of shipments that India already buys from Russia. People familiar with the negotiations suggest the new contracts would replace purchases of oil cargoes India procures on the spot market. Details on volume and pricing are still being negotiated with Indian banks that are set to fully finance all cargoes, while Rosneft would be responsible for shipping and insurance. The news comes atop reports suggesting China is actively engaging Moscow to replenish its crude stockpiles with heavily discounted Russian barrels that have been shunned by Western traders. At settlement, NYMEX West Texas Intermediate for July delivery advanced $0.91 to $119.41 per bbl, while international crude benchmark Brent contract for August settled the session above $120 per bbl at $120.57. NYMEX RBOB July contract declined 3.53 cents to $4.1577 per gallon and ULSD July futures dropped 3.95 cents to $4.3206 per gallon.
WTI Dips After Unexpected Crude Build, Gasoline Stocks Up Most Since Jan - Oil prices rebounded from midday weakness to close at 2-month highs with WTI at $120 after Goldman hiked its crude price forecasts and rebounding demand hopes from China“The true fundamentals in crude, gasoline and diesel remain bullish, although prices have risen a bit too far too fast,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial.The Energy Information Administration revised down their forecasts for gasoline consumption in its latest monthly report, but as long as inventories remain so far below the 5-year average it’s extremely bullish, he said.For now, the next leg will depend on inventory data tonight and tomorrow's demand signals. API
- Crude +1.845mm (-2.2mm exp)
- Cushing -1.839mm
- Gasoline +1.821mm
- Distillates +3.376mm
A more worrisome set of data from API with crude stocks building unexpectedly along with products seeing inventories rise (gasoline stocks up by the most since January)Does this suggest demand destruction is beginning? WTI was trading just below $120 ahead of the API data and dipped after. Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Management warns, “I am concerned US demand will not live up to expectations and we will see demand destruction here.” But for now, demand destruction in gasoline at the pump , for instance, remains modest at its worst.
WTI Tops $121 as Traders Brace for Summer Fuel Shortages - West Texas Intermediate futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange roared higher Wednesday after major banks and trading houses forecasted oil prices will need to go higher this summer to normalize unsustainably low levels of global oil inventories and to incentivize production from OPEC+ nations and producers outside the bloc with the decline in Russian supplies adding pressure on an already tight global oil market. Goldman Sachs economists forecasted Tuesday oil prices will surge above $140 barrel (bbl) this summer, with a gradual recovery in Chinese demand and precipitous drop in Russian oil production adding to the pressure on already low global supplies. Analysts with the investment bank said summer retail gasoline prices will need to spike to levels normally associated with $160 bbl crude oil to curtail demand. U.S. average retail gasoline prices jumped another 5 cents on Tuesday to a fresh record $4.92 gallon, according to AAA. That's up by 30 cents over the past week and 62 cents in the past month. U.S. Energy Information Administration on Tuesday also boosted its projections for oil, gasoline, and natural gas prices, saying it no longer expects gasoline prices to tumble back below $4 gallon by September. The American Petroleum Institute reported Tuesday afternoon commercial crude oil stocks rose 1.845 million bbl last week versus calls for inventories to have dropped 1.9 million bbl. Stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, hub -- the New York Mercantile Exchange delivery point for the West Texas Intermediate futures contract -- dropped 1.839 million bbl. The data also showed gasoline stockpiles rose 1.821 million bbl in the reviewed week, more than six times estimates for a 300,000 bbl build. Distillate inventories posted a 3.376 million bbl build, more than four times calls for an increase of 800,000 bbl. Against these headwinds, World Bank downgraded its outlook for global economic growth this year, pointing to the devastating impact of Russia's war in Ukraine, the prospect of widespread food shortages and concern over the potential return of "stagflation" -- a mix of high inflation and sluggish growth unseen for more than four decades. The World Bank slashed its global economic growth forecast to 2.9% this year, down from 4.1% seen in early January. The bank doesn't expect a much brighter outlook in 2023 and 2024 either, with annualized growth of just 3% for both years. For the United States, The World Bank slashed its growth forecast to 2.5% this year from 5.7% in 2021 and from the 3.7% it had forecast in January. For the 19 European countries that share the euro currency, it downgraded the growth outlook to 2.5% this year from 5.4% last year and from the 4.2% it had expected in January. Near 7:30 a.m. EDT, NYMEX WTI for July delivery rallied $1.12 to $120.53 bbl, while international crude benchmark Brent contract for August surged above $121 bbl, up $1.01. NYMEX RBOB July contract declined 3.53 cents to $4.1577 gallon and ULSD July futures dropped 3.95 cents to $4.3206 gallon.
WTI Rebounds After Inventory Data, UAE Warns Prices "Nowhere Near" Their Peak -- Oil prices are higher this morning but trending lower ahead of the official DOE data, erasing any gains following last night's API report that showed notable builds for crude and gasoline inventories. The overnight jump was triggered by UAE warnings that oil prices are “nowhere near” their peak as an impending rebound in Chinese demand threatens to strain a global market already pinched by tight supplies.“With the pace of consumption we have, we are nowhere near the peak because China is not back yet,” UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al-Mazrouei said at a conference on Wednesday in Jordan. “China will come with more consumption.”The comments came after banks including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley underlined calls for higher prices in the coming months.For now, all eyes are on inventories and any signs of demand destruction. DOE
- Crude +2.03mm (-2.2mm exp)
- Cushing -1.593mm
- Gasoline -812k - 10th weekly draw in a row
- Distillates +2.592mm - biggest build since Dec 2021
The official data confirmed API's unexpected crude build as inventories rose over 2mm barrels (against expectations of a 2.2mm barrel draw). Additionally, Distillates stocks saw their biggest build since Dec 2021.The headline build in crude stockpiles was more than offset by the withdrawal of nearly 7.3 million barrels of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve last week. Total nationwide crude inventories (including commercial stockpiles and oil held in the SPR) fell by more than 5.2 million barrels in the week to June 3.
Oil jumps to 13-week high on rising US gasoline demand, supply concerns (Reuters) -Oil prices rose about 2% to a 13-week high on Wednesday as U.S. demand for gasoline has kept rising despite record pump prices, on expectations China's oil demand will rise and on supply concerns in several countries. Brent futures rose $2.19, or 1.8%, to $122.76 a barrel by 11:47 a.m. EDT (1547 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $2.00, or 1.7%, to $121.41. Brent and WTI were on track for their highest settlements since March 8, which were their highest since 2008. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories rose unexpectedly last week, while crude in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell by a record amount as refiners' inputs rose to their highest since January 2020, the Energy Information Administration said. U.S. gasoline stocks fell by a surprise 0.8 million barrels as demand for the fuel rose despite sky-high pump prices. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected gasoline stocks to rise 1.1 million barrels. [EIA/S] [API/S] "The gasoline draw is a highlight of the report with a tight market place across the U.S.," said Tony Headrick, energy market analyst at CHS Hedging, noting demand remained strong even with pump prices above $5 per gallon in many parts of the country. Auto club AAA said national average retail regular unleaded gasoline prices hit a record $4.955 per gallon on Wednesday. "Oil prices are higher, supported by expectation of China easing the COVID restrictions, translating in higher demand and imports this summer,". China's major A-share indexes and Hong Kong's Hang Seng finished trade at two-month closing highs on hopes for a demand recovery on easing of lockdowns to fight the spread of COVID-19. On the supply side, traders noted several countries could face problems boosting output. In Norway, a number of oil workers plan to strike from June 12 over pay, putting some crude output at risk of shutdown. Efforts by OPEC+ oil producers to boost output are "not encouraging", United Arab Emirates' energy minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said, noting the group was currently 2.6 million barrels per day (bpd) short of its target. Further pressuring the supply outlook, Iran removed two surveillance cameras of the International Atomic Energy Agency from one of its nuclear facilities, state television reported. That move will probably raise tensions with the United Nations nuclear watchdog, the United States and other countries negotiating with Iran over its nuclear program, hoping for a deal analysts have said could lift sanctions and add 1 million bpd of crude to world supply. The International Energy Agency, meanwhile, warned that Europe, which has sanctioned Russia following its invasion of Ukraine, could face energy shortages next winter.
Oil, gasoline prices to pare gains but remain high through 2022, 2023: EIA - Geopolitical uncertainty and the ongoing impact of the pandemic led to increased oil price volatility and contributed to a more than $4/b rise in the US Energy Information Administration's 2022 oil price expectations, the agency said June 7. The EIA in its June Short-Term Energy Outlook now sees WTI averaging $102.47/b in 2022, up $4.27/b from its prior estimate in May and expects Brent to average $107.37/b in 2022, up $4.02/b from the prior month. The EIA expects WTI at $93.24/b in 2023 and sees Brent at $97.24/b, both unchanged from the prior month. "We continue to see historically high energy prices as a result of the economic recovery and the repercussions of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine," EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis said in a statement. "Although we expect the current upward pressure on energy prices to lessen, high energy prices will likely remain prevalent in the US this year and next." Already-high crude oil prices rose further as Shanghai and Beijing began easing COVID-19 restrictions end-May and the EU announced plans to cut its Russian oil imports by 90% by the year's end. "Actual price outcomes will largely depend on the degree to which existing sanctions imposed on Russia, any potential future sanctions, and independent corporate actions affect Russia's oil production or the sale of Russia's oil in the global market," the agency said in its report. The EIA forecast Russia's total liquid fuels production to fall to 9.3 million b/d by end-2023, from 11.3 million b/d at the start of 2022. Those estimates assume the EU's ban on seaborne crude oil from Russia will be imposed in six months and the region's import ban on petroleum products will go into effect in eight months. The agency said that its forecast, finalized June 2, did not incorporate restrictions on shipping insurance as those details were not available at the time. "The possibility that these sanctions or other potential future sanctions reduce Russia's oil production by more than expected creates upward risks for crude oil prices during the forecast period," the agency said. The EIA forecast retail gasoline prices in 2022 to average $4.07/gal, up 25 cents from its prior estimate in May. The agency put retail diesel prices at an average $4.69/gal over the same period, down 3 cents from May. The EIA attributed rising gasoline and diesel prices to refining margins at or near record highs amid low inventory levels. But it forecast gasoline wholesale margins -- the price difference between wholesale gasoline and Brent crude -- to fall 36 cents to an average 81 cents/gal over May and the third quarter, and diesel wholesale margins to decline 46 cents to $1.07/gal during the same period. High wholesale products margins are seen putting US refinery utilization at or near its highest levels in the past five years, the EIA said. The agency does not see total refinery output of oil products reaching a five-year high, because operable refining capacity in the US is about 900,000 b/d lower than at the end of 2019. The EIA forecast third quarter refinery utilization to average 94% and asserted that such high utilization would "help bring wholesale margins down from record levels."
WTI Eases From 13-Week High as China Renews COVID Shutdowns - After a three-session rally, oil futures moved shallowly mixed in early trade Thursday as renewed COVID-19 controls in parts of Shanghai, China's financial capital of 25 million people, countered robust demand for refined fuels in the United States, where gasoline demand is rising despite record high retail prices for the transportation fuel that are approaching $5 gallon. Gasoline inventories in the United States fell to the lowest seasonal level in eight years last week, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, as demand for gasoline spiked above 9.1 million barrels per day (bpd) -- the highest weekly rate this year. Despite sky-high prices at the pump, there are no signs of visible change in U.S. driving patterns, with the seasonal uptick in summer fuel demand as seen in previous years on track. Goldman Sachs economists forecasted this week gasoline prices will need to go much higher from where they are now to have a meaningful impact on demand. The bank warned of likely price spikes and fuel shortages this summer as China hums towards reopening its economy and the European Union turns down imports of Russian oil and refined fuels. Potentially weighing on prices Thursday morning are fresh COVID-19 curbs in Shanghai, where a reopening from a three-month lockdown had only recently occurred. Shanghai will lockdown seven districts this weekend, restricting movement for millions of people to conduct mass COVID-19 testing after discovering nine cases. The moves are raising concern that the city's reopening is backsliding as officials fear a resurgence of infection after social and economic activity resumed. Residents face the risk of being confined to their homes for another two weeks if any infections are discovered during mass testing, in line with China's zero-COVID policy. In the capital Beijing, which has been struggling with a long but low-level COVID flareups, authorities ordered the tightening of rules again after a bar cluster ended a five-day streak of zero community spread. Analysts predict China will be stuck in a slowly evolving loop as it sticks to its zero-COVID policy, making a strong rebound in its economy virtually impossible. Overnight trade data out of China showed crude oil imports fell 1.7% from a year ago over the January to May period, highlighting a drop in oil demand as Beijing restricts mobility for its people. Despite the lockdowns, exports grew by 16.9% last month from a year earlier to US$308.25 billion compared to 3.9% growth in April. China's imports, meanwhile, grew by 4.1% in May to US$229.49 billion, up from an unchanged reading in April, and above expectations for a 0.6% rise. Near 7:30 a.m. EDT, NYMEX West Texas Intermediate for July delivery slipped $0.34 to $121.75 barrel (bbl), while international crude benchmark Brent contract for August softened to $123.30 bbl. NYMEX RBOB July contract increased 1.1 cents to $4.2329 gallon and ULSD July futures gained 0.97 cents to $4.3240 gallon.
Oil slips on China lockdowns, but bullish trends intact | Euronews -Oil prices dipped on Thursday but still hovered near three-month highs after parts of Shanghai imposed new COVID-19 lockdown measures, as strong gains in refined products contributed to an ongoing bullish backdrop for crude oil. Brent crude futures for August settled down 51 cents at $123.07 a barrel, a 0.4% decline, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for July lost 60 cents, or 0.5%, to $121.51 a barrel. Oil prices have been rallying steadily over the last two months, led by big increases in prices of refined products due to tight refining supply and surging demand. Worldwide, refiners have shut facilities, and capacity is tight as well because of reduced activity in Russia, the world’s largest exporter of crude and fuel, following its invasion of Ukraine. Peak summer gasoline demand in the United States continues to boost crude prices. The U.S. and other nations have engaged in a series of releases of strategic reserves, but it has had limited effect as of yet with global crude production rising very slowly. “I think higher energy prices are here for the balance of the year unless we see some breakthrough that allows a significant amount of crude oil to return to the market,” said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates in Houston. U.S. gasoline stocks unexpectedly dropped last week, government data showed on Wednesday, indicating resilience in demand for the motor fuel during the peak driving period despite sky-high pump prices. U.S. four-week demand was around 9 million barrels per day, just 1% off of 2021’s level. “Even though prices are higher, we haven’t seen any sizable drop in demand yet,” said Thomas Saal, senior vice president at StoneX Financial. “That may happen any day now, but people are still driving.” Refiners have been unable to keep pace with demand. The United States is at near-peak processing capacity while China has kept refiners offline due to COVID-related curbs. China’s May exports jumped 16.9% from a year earlier as easing COVID curbs allowed some factories to restart, the fastest growth since January this year and more than double analysts’ expectations. That could suggest more refining capacity will eventually come online, but major Chinese metropolitan areas still have some COVID-related travel restrictions in place, dampening demand. Parts of Shanghai began imposing new lockdown restrictions on Thursday, with residents of Minhang district ordered to stay home for two days to control transmission risks.
Oil falls on demand worries over Shanghai's new partial lockdowns (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Friday but still hovered near three-month highs, with fears over new COVID-19 lockdown measures in Shanghai outweighing solid demand for fuels in the world's top consumer United States.Brent crude futures for August was down $1.01, or 0.8%, at $122.06 a barrel as of 0141 GMT after a 0.4% decline the previous day. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for July fell 98 cents, or 0.8%, to $120.53 a barrel, having dropped 0.5% on Thursday.Still, with prices rallying over the last two months, Brent was on track for a fourth consecutive weekly gain and WTI was set for a seventh straight weekly increase. Both benchmarks on Wednesday marked their highest closes since March 8, when they hit their highest settlements since 2008."Shanghai's new pandemic restrictions raised concerns over demand in China," said Kazuhiko Saito, chief analyst at Fujitomi Securities Co Ltd."But losses were capped by expectations that tight global supply will continue with solid U.S. demand for fuels and slow increase in crude output by OPEC+," he said.Shanghai and Beijing went back on a fresh COVID-19 alert on Thursday after parts of China's largest economic hub imposed new lockdown restriction and the city announced a round of mass testing for millions of residents.China's crude oil imports rose nearly 12% in May from a low base in a year earlier, although refiners were still battling high inventories with COVID-19 lockdowns and a slowing economy weighing on fuel demand last month.Meanwhile, peak summer gasoline demand in the United States continues to boost crude prices. The United States and other nations have engaged in a series of releases of strategic reserves, but these have had limited effect, with global crude production rising very slowly. Last week, OPEC+ - a group comprising OPEC and producers including Russia - agreed to accelerate output increases to tame runaway fuel prices and slow inflation. But the move will leave the group with very little spare capacity and almost no room to compensate for a major supply outage.
‘Oil Futures, USD Advance Ahead of Highly Anticipated CPI - Oil futures advanced in early trade Friday ahead of the release of the highly anticipated U.S. consumer price index that is expected to show persistently high inflation continued in May amid an ongoing surge in prices for retail gasoline that are quickly approaching a record-high $5 gallon nationally. Some economists suggest gasoline prices will need to go much higher from where they are now to have a meaningful impact in slowing demand. Energy Information Administration reported gasoline demand in the United States topped 9.1 million barrels per day (bpd) for the first week of June -- the highest weekly rate this year, and some 700,000 bpd above the comparable week in 2021. May's CPI also comes ahead of next week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting when central bank officials are poised to again lift the federal funds rate. Investors expect the Federal Reserve will raise the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points on June 15, and to again hike the rate by another 50 when they again meet in July. Should inflation go higher than expected, this would almost certainly set the table for a more aggressive interest rate hike in the fall, according to economists. In financial markets, U.S. equity futures traded mixed early Friday following Thursday's late-hour selloff on Wall Street that shed more than 600 points from Dow Jones Industrials. DJI futures indicate a 50-point opening bell dip while those linked the S&P 500 are priced for a 1.5% fall. Futures linked to the Nasdaq are looking at a 20-point opening bell gain. Ten-year Treasury bond yields dipped to 3.03% and the U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.28% against a basket of six global currencies to 103.4 in overnight trading. On Wednesday, U.S. Energy Information Administration reported domestic distillate inventories started to climb seasonally last week, rising 2 million barrels (bbl) to 109 million bbl, which should ease some concerns about low inventory levels. But even with the recent increase, stocks are still at the lowest level since 2005, and they are not rising especially rapidly, which is likely to keep prices on an upward trend. Distillate stocks usually increase this time of year as refineries ramp up crude processing to produce more gasoline for the summer driving season. There are also signs that the business cycle in the United States has started to slow, weighing on demand for middle distillates that are typically used in construction, manufacturing, and freight shipments. EIA on Wednesday reported implied demand for middle distillates fell to the second lowest weekly rate this year at 3.65 million bpd after remaining below 4 million bpd since late March. Near 6:30 a.m. CDT, NYMEX West Texas Intermediate for July delivery advanced $0.82 to $122.37 bbl, while international crude benchmark Brent contract for August rallied to $124.13 bbl. NYMEX RBOB July contract gained 2.67 cents to $4.3029 gallon and ULSD July futures increased 8.25 cents to $4.4862 gallon.
Oil Skids on Soaring U.S. Inflation, Dollar; A Barrel Still Above $120 -- Oil prices skidded on Friday as U.S. inflation at more than 40-year highs suggested even more aggressive rate hikes that sent the dollar flying, making commodities priced in the greenback, including crude, costlier for non-holders of the currency. But a barrel still held well above $120, ensuring a seventh straight weekly gain for U.S. crude and a fourth weekly win in a row for global benchmark Brent. London-traded Brent settled down $1.06, or 0.9%, to $122.01 a barrel. For the week though, it showed a gain of 1.8% and was up 9% over a four-week period. On Wednesday, Brent hit $124.38, its highest since 14-year peaks of above $130 reached on March 9 after the invasion of Ukraine that triggered Western sanctions on Russian oil that upended the global energy market. The global crude benchmark is up 57% so far for this year. West Texas Intermediate settled down 84 cents, or 0.7%, at $120.67 per barrel, after a three-month high of $123.15 on Wednesday. For the week, the US crude benchmark rose 1.8% and was up 18% over a seven-week period. Year-to-date, WTI is up more than 60%. Friday’s slide in crude came as the Dollar Index, which pits the greenback against six other major currencies, hit a three-week high of 104.23. The dollar jumped after the Labor Department reported that the US Consumer Price Index grew 8.6% during the year to May, expanding by its fastest rate since 1981, as the cost of virtually everything — from food to fuel, shelter and clothing — rose again last month. The average pump price of gasoline, particularly, hit more than $5 a gallon on Thursday for the first time ever in the United States, according to data from fuel price tracking service GasBuddy. Separately, the University of Michigan said its closely-followed US Consumer Sentiment Index hit a record low in its latest survey for June as Americans become increasingly disillusioned with inflation taking a bigger bite of their paycheck each month. U.S. bond yields, led by returns on the 10-year Treasury note hit a one month high of 3.17%, suggesting the Federal Reserve could be aggressive with rate hikes for the rest of the year in a bid to get inflation as close as possible to its annual 2% target. The central bank has previously said that it was ready to slow the economy, if necessary, to achieve its aim. Analysts say the Fed might have a tough task ahead as oil and gasoline prices don’t seem to be coming down enough to stop inflation in its tracks. “The oil market is still very tight and the eventual weaker U.S. consumer won’t really take effect until closer to the end of the year,” “Some traders are entering de-risking mode as prospects for the economy continue to dim, but no one really wants to abandon the best trade of the year, which is oil and energy stocks.”
US crude falls 84-cents on Friday but wraps up a seventh-straight week of gains - It's been seven terrible weeks for most global financial markets but seven straight weeks of gains in crude oil. WTI finished down by 84-cents on Friday but climbed $1.80 on the week. It's the highest finish to a Friday since 2008. Earlier this year oil spiked as high as $130.50 when the Ukraine war broke out but it was a short-lived spike and finished that week at $109.33. The latest rally has come on signs of persistent shortages despite Chinese lockdowns, more OPEC supply and the SPR release. The next challenge is the risk of rapidly-slowing global growth amidst higher rates. So far though, crude has passed all the tests and technically, not much stands in the way of a return to $130. Even today with all the bearishness in stocks and bonds, the 0.7% decline is hardly material. WTI fell as low as $118.33 but rebounded more than $2 from the lows. For the weekend, two spots to watch are Libya and Norway. In Libya, rebels are threatening to block another port while in Norway workers could announce a strike. Demand destruction is likely creeping in; in part because gasoline and diesel prices are even-higher than they should be, because of refinery problems. Yesterday, US retail gasoline prices hit $5/gallon on average nationally for the first time.
The Biggest Reshuffle Of Oil Flows Since The 1970s - The biggest reshuffle of oil trade flows since the Arab oil embargo of the 1970s is underway—and things may never return to normal. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions on Russian oil exports are changing global oil trade routes. Over the past nearly five decades, oil flowed more or less freely from any supplier to any customer in the world, except for sanctions on Iran and Venezuela in recent years. This free energy trade is now over, after the Russian aggression and the Western sanctions that followed, plus Europe’s irreversible decision to cut off its dependence on Russian energy at any cost. A new Iron Curtain is now upending oil flows as Europe turns to the U.S., the Middle East, and Africa (and basically everyone that’s not Russia) for oil supply. The EU adopted last week a sanctions package to stop importing Russian seaborne crude oil within six months and Russian oil products within eight months. In a much farther-reaching measure in the sanctions package, the EU also bans EU operators from insuring and financing the shipment of Russian oil to third countries after a six-month wind-down period.The UK is also set to join the insurance ban after the UK and the European Union have reportedly agreed to jointly shut off Russia’s access to oil cargo insurance. The UK is home to an insurers’ club that covers 95% of the global oil shipment insurance market. This move is expected to make Russian oil shipments to countries willing to take its oil, mostly in Asia, more difficult to arrange in terms of liability coverage, and could prompt buyers in India and China to ask for even steeper discounts of the Russian crude to Dated Brent. The flagship Urals grade from Russia is selling at a more than $30 discount to Brent these days. By the end of this year, Europe expects to have effectively banned 90% of all its imports of Russian oil before the war. The embargo and the self-sanctioning are already upending global oil tanker traffic. Instead of traveling two or three weeks from Russia’s Baltic ports to Hamburg or Rotterdam, tankers carrying Russian oil now travel two or three months to reach India and China. For oil going to Europe, crude from the Middle East will now travel longer distances to European ports compared to the shorter routes to India and China. These changes in oil flows will result in higher insurance, shipping, and financing costs for cargoes, Zoltan Pozsar, Global Head of Short-Term Interest Rate Strategy at Credit Suisse and a former U.S. Treasury Department official, told The Wall Street Journal. More expensive energy trade—due to the end of the free trade that was based solely on market signals of supply, demand, and prices—could put commodities at the center of the next global economic crisis, Pozsar told the Journal. Sure, Russia is increasingly using ship-to-ship transfers to load crude from smaller tankers onto supertankers. It is also expected to backchannel part of its crude shipments the way Iran has been doing since the U.S. sanctions on its oil exports were re-imposed in 2018. Still, Asia will not be able to absorb all the Russian oil that was previously going to Europe, which was Russia’s number-one oil customer before the war. India, which has traditionally bought oil mostly from the Middle East, is boosting Russian oil purchases, taking advantage of the cheap Russian crude. Middle Eastern producers, for their part, are expected to supply more oil to Europe, as will African producers and the United States. India and China are Russia’s chance to continue selling its oil. Although Russia publicly expresses confidence that it will have “new markets” for its energy, analysts doubt all the oil that would have gone to Europe could end up with buyers in Asia, also because of liability coverage issues and the changing oil trade routes which extend the period of crude traveling from seller to refiner. For Europe, the choice of oil supply is now political, and it will be willing to pay a premium to procure non-Russian oil. This will tighten supply options and continue to support elevated oil prices for months to come.
Iran says it expects confiscated oil cargo to be returned in full --Iran said it expects oil cargo confiscated by the United States off the coast of Greece to be returned in full following a Greek court decision overturning an original ruling to allow its seizure. The case arose when Greece in April impounded the Iranian-flagged Lana with 19 Russian crew members on board near the island of Evia because of European Union sanctions. The US in May confiscated part of the Iranian oil onboard, transferring it to another ship, following the initial Greek court ruling. The Greek court’s decision to overturn that ruling has not yet been made public. “Following intensive follow-up, the Greek Court of Appeals will overturn the initial court ruling on the confiscation of Iranian oil and … the entire oil shipment will be returned,” Iranian Ambassador Ahmad Naderi said. “The issue remains the subject of intense consultations between the two countries to ensure full implementation of the ruling,” he added on the embassy’s Twitter account. Greek media reported that the Lana was believed to be carrying more than 100,000 tonnes of Iranian crude, in breach of US and European Union sanctions on Iran.The confiscation of the cargo prompted an angry response from Iran, with Iranian forces last month seizing two Greek tankers in the Gulf after Tehran warned it would take “punitive action” against Athens.President Ebrahim Raisi said on Thursday that Iran had shown it would stand up to “bullies”.“Like bullies, they stole our ship. Iran proved that the era of ‘hit and runs’ is over, and we seized two of their ships. How many times do you want to test the Iranian nation?” Raisi said in remarks carried by state television.
US-Backed Kurds Offer To Work With Assad Government To Resist Turkish Invasion --The most enduring US ally in the Syrian War, the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are very publicly interested in resisting the latest round of planned Turkish invasions of northern Syria, saying they are open to coordination with the Syrian government’s troops to do so.Turkey has repeatedly invaded northern Syria and northern Iraq to have a run at Kurdish factions, declaring them "terrorists" in both. The operations in Syria aim at the SDF’s parent organization, the YPGThe most recent threatened Turkish operation seeks to establish a 30 km "security zone" within Syria. This is roughly in line with past plans threatened, mostly with an eye toward propping up Turkish-backed rebels in the area.Syria opposes such raids because that "zone" becomes rebel territory, and the SDF oppose it because it’s carved out of their territory. SDF leaders suggest the Syrians would particularly help if they used air defenses against the Turkish warplanes. According to Middle East Eye:The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) would be "open" to coordinating with Syrian government troops to fend off any Turkish invasion of the north, the head of the US-backed militia has said. Mazloum Abdi also told Reuters on Sunday that Damascus should use its air defense systems against Turkish planes. The US-armed SDF are a formidable on the ground force, but were an auxiliary of the US in fighting ISIS, and envision the same role with Syria in resisting Turkey.Turkey backed the rebels in Syria almost immediately at the beginning, envisioning the Sunni Arab-dominated rebels being more hostile to Kurdish autonomy, and leaving the YPG in a weakened position.Ironically, Turkey’s pro-rebel position set Islamists up in north Syria, and when the US got involved, they backed the YPG in resisting those groups, leaving the YPG and the SDF as a stronger group than they likely were before the war began. Now, they may find themselves natural allies to Syria, and even further entrenched as an autonomous faction in northeast Syria.
Blast at U.S. base in Syria in April being investigated as insider attack - The attack last April on the American base in Syria known as Green Village is now being investigated as an insider attack carried out by a U.S. service member, a U.S. official confirmed. The attack was first described by the Pentagon as "indirect fire" — a rocket or mortar attack of the kind occasionally launched at U.S. bases in Syria and Iraq. But then, within days, the Pentagon said the blast, which resulted in traumatic brain injury for a small number of soldiers, was caused by an explosion that had been "placed" inside the camp. Joint Task Force and Operation Inherent Resolve officials released a statement on April 15 stating that the explosions at Green Village were the result of the "deliberate placement of explosive charges by an unidentified individual(s) at an ammunition holding area and shower facility."
American Mother Pleads Guilty To Leading Battalion For ISIS -- An American mother from Kansas pleaded guilty in a U.S. federal district court on Tuesday to organizing and leading an all-female military battalion for the ISIS terrorist group in Syria. Allison Fluke-Ekren, a mother of five and former school teacher, admitted to training around 100 women and girls to support ISIS activities. She also plotted to carry out a terrorist attack on U.S. soil, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) announced, citing court documents. After spending years abroad supporting the ISIS terrorist group, Fluke-Ekren was transported in custody to the United States after being arrested in Syria on Jan. 28. U.S. District Judge Leonie Brinkema accepted Fluke-Ekren’s guilty plea in the Eastern District of Virginia on Tuesday. Fluke-Ekren first fronted a U.S. court on Jan. 31, where she entered no plea and was ordered held without bail until a detention hearing in February. According to the DOJ, the Kansas mom, whose parents and adult children want nothing to do with her, left America for Egypt in 2008 to live with her second husband, a now-deceased former member of the Ansar al-Sharia terrorist group. For the eight years starting from approximately September 2011, she spent time in Syria, Libya, and Iraq engaging in “terrorism-related activities,” ultimately becoming the leader of Khatiba Nusaybah, the all-female ISIS battalion. As its leader and organizer, she trained women and young girls—some as young as 10 or 11—in the use of automatic firing AK-47 assault rifles, grenades, and suicide belts packed with explosives. She also taught religious classes, martial arts, medical training, and courses in driving vehicles used as explosives. In its release, the DOJ announced that Fluke-Akren assisted her husband in reviewing and summarizing the contents of U.S. government documents stolen in the aftermath of the Sept. 11, 2012, terrorist attack on the U.S. Special Mission and CIA Annex in Benghazi, Libya. Around mid-2014, Fluke-Ekren told a witness in Syria that she desired to carry out an attack in the United States. The eyewitness said the former U.S. school teacher discussed ideas about using explosives to attack a Midwest college. She also plotted to carry out a bombing at a U.S. shopping mall. “To conduct the attack, Fluke-Ekren explained that she could go to a shopping mall in the United States, park a vehicle full of explosives in the basement or parking garage level of the structure, and detonate the explosives in the vehicle with a cell phone triggering device,” according to the DOJ’s release. According to the witness, Fluke-Ekren considered any attack that did not kill a large number of individuals to be a waste of resources and that she wished attacks taking place outside the United States had occurred on U.S. soil instead.
High Gas Prices Force UK Fertilizer Plant to Shut -CF Industries Holdings Inc. will close one of its UK fertilizer plants permanently as it struggles with high energy costs. The company is proposing to shutdown the Ince facility as it restructures operations in Britain, it said Wednesday. The site, which hasn’t produced ammonia since September, was one of CF’s plants halted last year as soaring gas costs squeezed profitability. That prompted the government to step in to help keep some operations going. The move to close the factory highlights the challenge that expensive gas poses to European industries. The threat to fertilizer output has also been bad news for the food and drink sector, because the factories produce carbon dioxide as a byproduct. That gas is used to stun pigs and chickens for slaughter, extend the shelf life of fresh food and give beer and soda their fizz. Fertilizer output at CF’s Billingham and Ince sites has provided as much as 60% of Britain’s CO2 production. The UK government has called the gas an “essential component of the national economy.” Gas prices have eased from a record, but are still 50% above usual for this time of year. High prices are expected to continue into winter and the risk still remains of further supply cutoffs from Russia. Prices will stay high for the next two years, according to ING Bank NV. CF said it would focus its UK manufacturing operations at its Billingham plant, which is the UK’s largest ammonia, ammonium nitrate and CO2 site. That facility is better positioned for long-term sustainability as it has sufficient capacity to meet all domestic demand, it said. Even before the energy price crisis, the company’s fertilizer sales were lagging behind due to competition from lower-cost international supplies. Muted demand in the UK has meant that CF has been forced to export at “unsustainably low margins” in order to continue to operate both facilities, the company said.
The Summer Of Starvation": Soaring Fertilizer Prices Unleash Chaos, Hunger Worldwide - One of the most pernicious consequences - if primarily for the anti-Russia west - resulting from the Ukraine war, has been the unprecedented spike in fertilizer prices which among other things, has sparked a historic surge in food prices and collapse in supply chains around the globe, as we discussed in these articles published over the past few months:
- Fertilizer Prices Hit Record Highs, May Pressure Food Inflation Even Higher
- "Fertilizer Is Out Of Control" - US Farmers Ditch Corn For Soy To Save On Costs
- Poop-Boom: Manure Supplies Tighten As Fertilizer Prices Soar
- World's Largest Fertilizer Company Warns Crop Nutrient Disruptions Through 2023
Fast forwarding to today, when we have some good, some bad and some pretty terrible news. The good news it that fertilizer prices have eased modestly from all time highs, as the following chart of Tampa Ammonia CFR spot prices shows.The bad news is that the the price hasn't dropped nearly enough: according to Bloomberg, the glut of fertilizers piling up at the biggest Brazilian ports signals that the price of the nutrients has to drop further before farmers start buying.In Paranagua, private warehouses reached their maximum storage capacity of 3.5 million tons, Luiz Teixeira da Silva, Paranagua’s operations director told Bloomberg. A terminal operated by VLI Logistics, one of the two at Santos port that store fertilizers, is also full, according to people with knowledge of the matter who asked not to be named as the information isn’t public.As noted above, the price of fertilizers across the globe has exploded to unprecedented levels, and Brazil has been no exception.That's a problem because the agriculture-heavy country and food-source for half the globe, imports nearly 85% of its fertilizer and Russia is the main origin. As supplies have normalized, prices have declined over the past weeks, but farmers still aren’t buying. They are waiting for further price cuts, according to Marina Cavalcante, an analyst at Bloomberg’s Green Markets.“Farmers have the expectation that prices will keep falling after declines last week and in the previous one,” she said. “So they’ll wait for further decreases to buy.”And here is an example in supply/demand game theory: Brazil is the world’s biggest shipper of several crops, including soybeans. Farmers can delay their purchases until the eve of the soybean seeding in September. But if they all wait too long, a last-minute rush could lead to inland transportation bottlenecks that may leave some of them empty-handed anyway. There is another problem: there just may not be enough actual fertilizer coming out of Russia, which has decided to punish the world by sending food prices for western nations to record highs and spark social unrest in the process. After all, the biggest reason prices are so high is because there is just not enough supply. And while speculators may have pushed prices somewhat higher than they should be, any farmers hoping that prices will fully renormalize will be disappointed.
Turkey Calls On Ukraine To Cooperate With Russian 'Grain Corridor' Plan To Unblock Ports - Turkey says that a plan being brokered under UN auspices to set up safe 'grain corridors' to open Ukraine ports for Black Sea transit has yet to be finalized, but that it's "feasible". Turkey has offered to escort maritime convoys as a neutral power from blockaded Ukraine ports. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu while speaking alongside Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in a Wednesday news conference said that for the plan to finally proceed, there would have to be direct negotiations between Moscow and Kiev However, so far Ukraine's government hasn't been represented in the Russia-Turkey-UN talks. Kiev has meanwhile not only blamed the Russian military blockade of its ports for causing a global food crisis, but has charged Russian forces with stealing Ukrainian grain.Further, according to The Associated Press, Ukraine has "expressed concerns that if it removes mines from its Black Sea ports, Russia would be more able to attack its southern coast."The Russia-Turkey plan to erect 'grain corridor' which would provide safe passage to Ukrainian grain cargo ships out of the Black Sea port of Odessa via joint military escorts is conditioned on the prospect of a successful major de-mining operation of Ukraine's ports.During Wednesday's press conference in Istanbul, one reality on display was NATO member Turkey's willingness to break with allies in compromising with Russian interests. This also comes curiously in the context of vehement Turkish objections to Sweden and Finland joining NATO. The Turkish FM even suggesting dropping sanctions as a possible part of ensuring the grain corridor plan is achieved.
No deal yet with Russia or Turkey to unblock Black Sea, Ukraine says – Kyiv says it has not yet reached any agreement with Russia or Turkey to allow the safe passage of its grain ships in the Black Sea, injecting skepticism into a push by the U.N. to create a vital food corridor. The warning comes on the eve of a round of talks brokered by Turkey to demine Ukraine's Black Sea ports and assuage a mounting global food crisis that has been severely worsened by Russia's naval blockade. Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will hold talks with his Turkish counterpart in Ankara on Wednesday, with Russian media already talking up the prospect of a deal that would allow Moscow to claim it is helping hungry nations in Africa and the Middle East. In a statement, Ukraine's ministry of foreign affairs said Kyiv will reject any agreements "that do not take into account the interest of Ukraine.""We appreciate Türkiye's efforts aimed at unblocking Ukrainian ports. At the same time, it should be noted that there are no agreements on this issue between Ukraine, Turkey and Russia at this time," the statement said.Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said neither he nor Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba was invited to the talks in Ankara, Interfax reported.A deal which allows Russian ships greater access to Ukraine's port of Odesa is a non-starter for Kyiv, as it believes the Russian navy would take advantage of a demined port to attack it. Russia has previously signalled it would want relief from sanctions in return for food export guarantees."Given the recent Russian missile strike on a grain terminal in Mykolaiv, we cannot rule out Russia's plans to use such a corridor to attack Odesa and southern Ukraine," the statement continued.
Even If Ukraine's Ports Open Up Tomorrow, It Will Take "Months" To Demine Them: UN --At a moment global humanitarian and hunger relief groups are warning of a "catastrophe" for already vulnerable populations particularly in Africa and the Middle East which rely heavily on Ukrainian and Black Sea region grain exports, the United Nations has said it will likely take "months" to de-mine Ukraine's ports. The war-torn country is the fourth biggest exporter of grain in the world.Hundreds of merchant vessels had been stranded in the war's opening months at Ukrainian ports following the Russian invasion, and still nearly 100 remain stuck along with their crews. This week a special advisor on maritime security at the UN's International Maritime Organization told Bloomberg: "Even if the ports wanted to reopen tomorrow it would take some time until ships could enter or depart." But it remains that before this, "Completely removing sea mines in the port areas would take several months."The de-mining issue has stalled UN-sponsored negotiations in Istanbul between Russia and Turkey to establish a 'grain corridor' to get the vital exports needed for much of the world's food moving again. Kiev has charged that both the Russian naval blockade as well as Russian forces' theft of Ukraine's grain is the reason for the emerging global food and supply crisis, while the Kremlin has long blamed Ukraine for heavily mining its own ports.Statements from the Ukrainian and Russian governments, as well as in international reports, indicate there are literally multiple thousands of mines up and down Ukraine's coast. For this reason, Ukrainian government officials have estimated that if it started demining efforts now, it would take a whopping six months to clear the coast of Ukrainian and Russian mines, as cited in The Guardian.In his latest statements, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said the onus is on the Ukrainian side: "We state daily that we're ready to guarantee the safety of vessels leaving Ukrainian ports and heading for the (Bosphorus) gulf, we're ready to do that in cooperation with our Turkish colleagues," he said after talks with his Turkish counterpart."To solve the problem, the only thing needed is for the Ukrainians to let vessels out of their ports, either by demining them or by marking out safe corridors, nothing more is required."Ukraine has rejected this narrative or that it bears responsibility for placing mines in the face of an invading power. The standoff and firm words on Wednesday strongly suggesting there's no resolution to the crisis in sight."Freight and insurance costs spiked after several merchant ships were hit in the early days of Russia’s invasion, and some shipping companies are still avoiding the Black Sea," Bloomberg details of a still dangerous situation for Black Sea shipping. "Three mines were detected free-floating in March, two off the coast of Turkey and one near Romania. In the northwest of the Black Sea near Ukraine, commercial ships have stopped operating," the report adds.
Empire Solves Ukraine’s Nazi Problem With A Logo Change -Caitlin Johnstone - British empire smut rag The Times has a new article out titled “Azov Battalion drops neo-Nazi symbol exploited by Russian propagandists,” which has got to be the most hilarious headline of 2022 so far (and I’m including The Onion and other intentionally funny headlines in the running).“The Azov Battalion has removed a neo-Nazi symbol from its insignia that has helped perpetuate Russian propaganda about Ukraine being in the grip of far-right nationalism,” The Times informs us. “At the unveiling of a new special forces unit in Kharkiv, patches handed to soldiers did not feature the wolfsangel, a medieval German symbol that was adopted by the Nazis and which has been used by the battalion since 2014. Instead, they featured a golden trident, the Ukrainian national symbol worn by other regiments.”Yeah that’s how you solve Ukraine’s Nazi problem. A logo change. https://twitter.com/taseenb/status/1531324958776995840 Claiming it’s “Russian propaganda” to say the Azov Battalion uses neo-Nazi insignia, and is ideologically neo-Nazi, is itself propaganda. A month ago Moon of Alabama published an incomplete list of the many mainstream western outlets who have described various Ukrainian paramilitaries as such, so if it’s only “Russian propagandists” who’ve been saying the Azov Battalion is neo-Nazi then Silicon Valley social media platforms should immediately ban outlets like NBC News, the BBC, The Guardian, and Reuters.Before this war started this past February it wasn’t seriously controversial to say that Ukraine has a Nazi problem except in the very most virulent of empire spinmeister echo chambers. Even in the early days of the conflict it was still happening with mainstream publications who hadn’t yet gotten the memo that history had been rewritten, like this NBC News article from March titled “Ukraine’s Nazi problem is real, even if Putin’s ‘denazification’ claim isn’t.”
NATO opens Northern front in war against Russia - On May 16, Sweden and Finland announced an end to decades of neutrality, proclaiming their intention to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and its escalating conflict with Russia. Less than three weeks later, Stockholm, Sweden’s capital, has been turned into a naval garrison with the arrival of a US amphibious assault battle group, consisting of the assault ship USS Kearsarge, the dock landing ship USS Gunston Hall, the guided-missile destroyer USS Gravely and the command ship USS Mount Whitney. Standing on the deck of the Kearsarge, a warship so large it would be classified as a carrier in any Navy besides the United States’, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mark Milley declared his intention to make the Baltic Sea, in the words of the New York Times, a “NATO lake.” Sweden had remained officially nonaligned since the Napoleonic wars in the early 1800s, having remained neutral in both the First and Second World Wars. Now, in the span of just weeks, the country has been turned into a new front of the US war with Russia, its cities not only hosting a massive US-NATO military presence, but, just as ominously, targeted by Russian long-range weapons systems. By pushing for the accession of Finland and Sweden as de facto members of NATO, the United States has opened up a second front in its war against Russia, turning the entire Baltic coast into a powder keg. The arrival of the ships was part of the BALTOPS 22 exercise, involving, according to NATO, “Fourteen NATO allies, two NATO partner nations, over 45 ships, more than 75 aircraft, and approximately 7,000 personnel.” The UK sent HMS Defender, the destroyer that in June 2021 sailed into waters around the Crimean peninsula, triggering a standoff that led to the dropping of bombs by Russian forces in the ship’s path. US officials made clear that the exercise was to be seen entirely within the framework of the current conflict with Russia. “In past iterations of BALTOPS we’ve talked about meeting the challenges of tomorrow,” said Vice Adm. Gene Black, commander Naval Striking and Support Forces NATO (STRIKFORNATO) and the US Sixth Fleet. “Those challenges are upon us–in the here and now.” Using the war in Ukraine as a pretext, the US has sought to double NATO’s land border with Russia through the inclusion of Finland. The US has put into motion plans, years in the making, to turn the entire region into a front line in the war against Russia. This threatens a repetition, on an even grander scale, of the manner in which Ukraine, following the 2014 coup, was transformed into a US/NATO proxy, armed with billions of dollars in weapons. This turn of events has had horrifying consequences for the people of Ukraine, tens of thousands of whom have died and millions of whom have been displaced as a result of this year’s war.
NATO Countries Surrounding Serbia Blocked Russian FM's Plane In "Hostile Action" -The Kremlin has denounced fresh airspace closures by three eastern European countries which blocked a top level Russian diplomatic flight as a "hostile action" in Monday statements.Russian Foreign Ministry Sergey Lavrov was set to fly Sunday for an official trip to Serbia, but his plane was blocked by the countries surrounding Serbia, which includes Bulgaria, North Macedonia and Montenegro. All three countries, including the tiny Serb breakaway nation of Montenegro, are NATO members.Lavrov in follow-up called the move "unprecedented" and "unthinkable" - with a separate statement from Putin's office saying such actions thwart essential diplomatic communications and contacts."There were a lot of questions from the media last night and this morning regarding our reaction to the unprecedented decisions taken by some NATO member states and the decisions that prevented the Russian Foreign Minister from visiting the Republic of Serbia. The unthinkable has happened, of course; I understand the interest you are showing in our assessment of these outrageous actions," Lavrov stated."What has happened is basically a deprivation of a sovereign state's right to conduct foreign policy. Serbia's international activity is blocked, at least for the moment in the direction of Russia," the top Russian diplomat emphasized.He added: "We are not going to beat around the bush here. This is another very clear and instructive demonstration of the extent to which NATO and the EU can go to use the most lowbrow ways to influence those who are guided by national interests and not ready to sacrifice their principles, their dignity in favor of the very rules that the West imposes instead of international law," according to TASS.
The Tricky Question for Russia of How Far to Go - by Yves Smith - Yours truly is not trying to predict outcomes, since Russia, Ukraine and its US/NATO backers are now in the midst of what Lambert likes to call an overly dynamic situation. But what we’ll attempt to do here is identify boundary conditions for how Russia will conduct its campaign in Ukraine and when it might call it quits. Remember that Russia generally follows Clausewitz, and Clausewitz sees war as an extension of politics and a means to achieve political aims. That is why, as some commentators pointed out early on, it made perfect sense for Russia to negotiate with Ukraine even as fighting was underway. Thus the breakdown in negotiations and Zelenksy’s outrageous requirements for resuming them1 constrains Russia’s options for achieving a favorable resolution.But, but, but…you might say if you have a keen appreciation of the military situation. The Russian forces are slowly grinding down the Ukraine forces in Donbass without deploying overwhelming forces, despite the fact that Ukraine has heavily bunkers and its best troops there. And Ukraine has been repeatedly caught out trying to depict as best small and typically fleeting tactical wins as big successful counteroffensives. The latest was just this week, when Serhiy Haidai, governor of Luhansk, claimed Ukraine was ousting Russia from Severodonetsk, just as Zelensky was visiting (cynics thought to prevent desertions). That within days turned into mumble mumble shuffle shuffle that it would be too costly to retake the city. Alexander Mercouris reported that this volte face was widely seen in Ukraine as an admission that the story of the offensive was a fabrication and the reaction on social media was harsh. It appears that the citizenry is increasingly critical of his conduct of the war.Another part of the big picture is that it’s clear that the weapons deliveries are too slow in coming and too small to make any difference. In many cases, the Western resupply won’t even come close to restoring Ukraine to where it was at the start of the conflict. And even then, with fresh (and more) troops, it has not been able to stop Russian advances.Many experts also think that the when Russia has taken Lugansk, particularly if it also captures a lot of Ukraine troops in the process, that it will deliver a crippling blow to Ukraine’s morale and potentially also to its battlefield effectiveness. And when Russia no longer has to deal with extended and well defended positions, it could also capture terrain much more quickly. Mind you, Russia’s aim is not to control territory but to destroy Ukraine’s army. However, map-oriented Ukrainians and Western pols would find Russia eating up Ukraine even faster to be disconcerting. It’s not hard to think that Putin hoped to achieve demilitarization (as in an agreement to neutrality) and denazification politically. That’s why it’s short-sighted to view the first phase of the war, when Russia spread itself thinly by sending troops to Chernobyl, Kiev, Kharviv, the South, and Donbass, as a big fail. It may have been executed in a manner that cost too many soldiers’ lives, but it was a convincing enough show of force to bring Ukraine to the negotiating table pronto. Ukraine had made important concessions at the March 30-31 round in Istanbul. A deal was on its way to getting done until the UK and US aggressively intervened. So unless something significant changes (more on that soon), Russia has what looks to be a high class problem, but what is a potential trap. Russia is going to determine when the war is over. That means it is going to have to decide how much territory to conquer, to hold, and what to do with them administratively. For instance, I suspect from a “try not to annoy the neighbors any more than absolutely necessary” perspective, Russia would rather have had freed parts of Ukraine that were Russia-friendly become a quasi-independent Novorossia. But Russia is having to stabilize the parts of Ukraine that it occupies, and that includes paying salaries to local government officials and pensions, which means converting banks to roubles. That sort of move sets strong expectations that the territory is joining Russia, whether or not that was the original plan.
Italy Secret Services Attack on Ukraine War Skeptics Backfires: Corriere della Sera Publication of “filoputiniani” List Called McCarthyism, Proscription; Suits Coming? - by Yves Smith It looks like the efforts to bolster the creaky European consensus for continuing to provide unquestioning military and economic support for Ukraine is starting to backfire. Even though the Orban government in Hungary has been a lightening rod of criticism for its refusal to back an EU oil embargo (it finally won a carveout of pipeline oil, the type it uses), weakening support in Italy is likely of much greater concern to Eurocrats. And it looks like an gambit to discredit some of the high profile Ukraine skeptics has backfired.As we’ll discuss in detail, the leading newspaper, Corriere della Sera, published a list of a dozen “filoputiniani” or “Putin lovers,” on Sunday. An editorial in Il Foglio lists some of its members. Per a machine translation:Among the profiles published by the via Solferino newspaper is Vito Petrocelli, a senator expelled from the M5s [Five Star] and dismissed from the role of the president of the Senate Foreign Affairs Commission. Laura Ruggeri, freelance journalist, who writes articles in the pro-Putin Strategic Culture Foundation magazine. Then there are Alessandro Orsini, Professor of Sociology of Terrorism, often a guest on television broadcasts and political debates, Maurizio Vezzosi, freelance analyst and reporter, Giorgio Bianchi, photojournalist who manages an account with over 100,000 subscribers. And again: Claudio Giordanengo, dentist in 2019 candidate with the League [Lega Nord]; Manlio Dinucci, promoter of the “No Guerra No Nato” committee; Alberto Fazolo, economist and freelance journalist who fought with the separatists in Donbas. It was obvious that this material was leaked, presumably from the intelligence services, so then the question became how. The first target of suspicion was Copsair, which translates as Parliamentary Committee for the Security of the Republic and supervises the various spook services. But if you read the first part of the Il Foglio editorial, its chairman denies that Copsair asked for investigations and was not the source of the leaks. Of course, the intel types could have provided the dossiers to Copsair and been annoyed it hadn’t acted on them. Our DLG, Reality Czar, who alerted us to this story and has read most of the major accounts in Italian, provided this overview:Corriere della Sera did an enormously stupid thing, proving one more time that the big establishment papers are in bed with the “intelligence community” and like it.So a dozen people were listed and photos published in the Sunday edition of the paper of the “filoputiniani” (Putinlovers) who are passing along propaganda. There is now an enormous scandal. The word McCarthyism is being used here. La sporca dozzina, the dirty dozen, according to Marco Travaglio, who is one of them.As Fatto Quotidiano remarks—but they didn’t include Pope Francis, who has criticized the war in Ukraine quite directly and clearly.Massimo Cacciari, who has also insisted on a negotiated settlement with Ukraine likely going neutral, is wondering why he didn’t make the list.Screen capture below. Some of this is local politics that I can’t expect you to get. But it is part of the rapid breakdown in consensus, which leads back to the incompetence of the U.S. and U.K. elites. (Bojo is not admired in Italy.)
Chinese Passenger Car Sales Down 17% Year Over Year -- While Chinese passenger car sales look like they might bump higher sequentially for May, the country's sales numbers are still down year over year.Sales are supposed to be down 17% year over year, according to Bloomberg and preliminary data from the China Passenger Car Association.This marks a 30% rise from April, totaling 1.35 million units sold. China continues to face tough comps, as last year's demand was robust due to pull forward of demand aiming to capture EV subsidies and this year has slowed again due to a new round of Covid lockdowns. Things aren't going phenomenally for the global auto market in other countries, either. In Europe, we just noted that sales plunged by 20% in April, marking the 10th month in a row that sales fell. At the time, the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association noted that it was the steepest decline this year. The losing streak continues months after Goldman had opined that European automakers had already priced in a "stressed" scenario. And in the U.S. we noted that May showed a marked slowdown in auto sales, as well. Companies like Honda and Mazda saw sales plunge between 27% and 63% year over year. As we noted, the lack of stimmy money and unemployment check bonuses, combined with the fact that rates are rising and spending is slowing, made for a tumultuous May report for some of the most well known legacy auto manufacturers.
Container Ship Wait-Times at Shanghai Fall, Still High. Container Freight Rates Drop, Still 4x of 2019: “Stabilization of Supply Chain Pressures at Historically High Levels” by Wolf Richter - Consumer spending in the US has been shifting back from goods to discretionary services, and demand for goods has fallen from the breath-taking stimulus-miracle spike in March and April 2021, as spending on services has surged. In Europe, as similar trend is beginning to evolved. And this trend back to services has started to show up in the world of container shipping.Average waiting times for container ships at Shanghai, after having spiked to nearly 70 hours in April (14-day moving average), amid the lockdowns that snarled port operations in Shanghai, have now declined to 31 hours, according to VesselsValue.This is still the longest wait time in the data for this time of the year, about 4 hours longer than the top of the range for the same period in 2019 through 2021, but it’s a huge improvement from April and from the spikes in 2021 when average waiting hours for container ships reached nearly 80 hours in August 2021 (green):Ocean freight rates to ship containers have also declined globally from the spike that topped out in September 2021. The Drewry World Container Index has dropped by 26% from the September 2021 high of $10,377 per 40-ft container, to $7,625 as of the week ended June 2.But this is still multiples higher than the old-normal container freight rates before the pandemic: In 2019, the Drewry World Container Index ranged from $1,200 to $1,900.From Shanghai to Los Angeles, container freight rates fell by 30% from the peak of $12,424 in September 2021 to $8,704 in the week ended June 2. But they’re still over four times higher than they were just before the pandemic.From Shanghai to New York, container freight rates dropped by 33% from $16,138 at the peak last September to $10,871 as of June 2 (chart via Drewry Supply Chain Advisors):For the global trade in goods that a are shipped in containers, the past two years have been utter chaos, as a result of many factors, ranging from consolidation in the shipping industry prior to the pandemic to the historic boom in demand for goods, especially in the US, but also in Europe and elsewhere – demand that no one was ready for.Consumer spending, fueled by many trillions of dollars in central bank and government stimulus, shifted from discretionary services to durable goods, unleashing an explosive spike in imports of goods into the US, resulting in container shortages, massive container congestion at ports and rail yards everywhere, gummed-up operations, spiking freight costs, long delays, and just utter chaos and inefficiencies that made everything much worse.The decline in waiting times for container ships at Shanghai, and the decline in container freight rates show that the transportation chaos is getting partially resolved. But the wait times at Shanghai are still longer than they were; and container freight rates are still multiples higher than they were, and nothing has normalized yet.In the US, the boom in durable goods – many of which are imported or are assembled in the US with imported components, such as new vehicles – was driven from already high levels to fantastical levels in March and April 2021, following the third round of stimulus checks. Even adjusted for inflation, “real” spending on durable goods during the pandemic just blew the lid off. And supply chains could never be ready for the explosion in demand.
World Bank warns global economy may suffer 1970s-style stagflation The global economy may be headed for years of weak growth and rising prices, a toxic combination that will test the stability of dozens of countries still struggling to rebound from the pandemic, the World Bank warned Tuesday.Not since the 1970s — when twin oil shocks sapped growth and lifted prices, giving rise to the malady known as “stagflation” — has the global economy faced such a challenge.The bank slashed its annual global growth forecast to 2.9 percent from January’s 4.1 percent and said that “subdued growth will likely persist throughout the decade because of weak investment in most of the world.”Fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has aggravated the global slowdown by driving up prices for a range of commodities, fueling inflation. Global growth this year will be roughly half of last year’s annualized rate and is expected to show little improvement in 2023 and 202This will be the sharpest slump after an initial post-recession rebound that the global economy has suffered in more than 80 years, the bank said. And the situation could get even worse if the Ukraine war fractures global trade and financial networks or soaring food prices spark social unrest in importing countries.“The risk from stagflation is considerable with potentially destabilizing consequences for low- and middle-income economies, … There’s a severe risk of malnutrition and of deepening hunger and even of famine in some areas.”If the worst outcomes materialize, global growth over the next two years could fall “close to zero,” he added.With few exceptions, the economic outlook is troubled.Now in year three of the pandemic, the global economy has been hit in 2022 by what the World Bank labels “overlapping crises” — fallout from the war in Ukraine, recurring coronavirus lockdowns affecting Chinese factories and the highest inflation rates in decades.For now, the greatest areas of concern lie beyond U.S. borders. A recession in Europe is a real possibility, as the continent struggles to accommodate millions of Ukrainian refugees and deal with upheavals in energy markets. Elsewhere, the interruption of grain exports via the Black Sea is hurting countries such as Lebanon, Egypt and Somalia. China is suffering from its rigid zero-covid policies and battling costly property market weakness.
1B Meth Pills: East, Southeast Asia Drug Industry Hits Ominous Peak - The number of methamphetamine tablets seized in East and Southeast Asia exceeded a billion last year for the first time, highlighting the scale of illegal drug production and trafficking in the region and the challenges of fighting it, the United Nations said Monday.The 1.008 billion tablets were part of a regionwide haul of almost 172 tons of methamphetamine in all forms and was seven times higher than the amount seized 10 years earlier, the U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime said in a report.The drugs are largely consumed in Southeast Asia but also exported to New Zealand and Australia, Hong Kong, Korea and Japan in East Asia, and increasingly to South Asia.“Production and trafficking of methamphetamine jumped yet again as supply became super concentrated in the Mekong (River region) and in particular Thailand, Laos, and Myanmar,” Jeremy Douglas, Southeast Asia regional representative for the U.N. agency, told The Associated Press in an email interview.The increased production makes the drug cheaper and more accessible, creating greater risk to people and their communities, the report said.Methamphetamine is easy to make and has supplanted opium and its derivative heroin to become the dominant illegal drug in Southeast Asia for both use and export.The Golden Triangle area, where the borders of Myanmar, Laos and Thailand meet, was historically a major production area for opium and hosted many of the labs that converted it to heroin. Decades of political instability have made Myanmar’s frontier regions largely lawless, to be exploited by drug producers and traffickers.Given the problem of limited governance and low attention to the issue, the U.N. agency said organized crime syndicates have the means to continue to produce more meth and to sell it to a growing, young population with increased spending power.The political landscape also has helped traffickers. In Myanmar, the military seized power from an elected government last year and is now engaged in an armed struggle against foes of military rule. Drug production in Myanmar is often associated with armed ethnic minority groups that sometimes battle the government and each other.“Every group denies involvement in drug production and trafficking and point at other groups as responsible, but the drug economy is arguably the largest part of the economy in most or many parts of Shan and border areas of Myanmar and there is plenty of intel connecting groups to labs and shipments,” Douglas said.
Islamophobia: Can Modi's India Afford to Alienate the Entire Arab Muslim Middle East? by Riaz Haq - Last week, two official spokespersons of India's ruling BJP party insulted Prophet Muhammad (PBUH) on an Indian television channel known for promoting Islamophobia. Mohammad Zubair, an Indian Muslim journalist, tweeted a video clip of the TimesNow show featuring BJP's official spokeswoman Nupur Sharma attacking the Prophet (SAW) revered by more than a billion Muslims around the world. As the video clip went viral, a long a growing list of Muslim countries has officially protested to the Indian government. The UAE, Oman, Indonesia, Malaysia, Iraq, the Maldives, Jordan, Libya, Bahrain and Pakistan have now joined Kuwait, Iran and Qatar, calling Indian ambassadors to register their protest, and Saudi Arabia has issued a strongly worded statement. "The Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed its condemnation and denunciation of the statements made by the spokeswoman of the BJP," the Saudi statement said.The BJP's entire domestic politics is built on the hatred of Islam and Muslims. At the same time, Prime Minister Narendra Modi who many hold primarily responsible for promoting Islamophobia in India, wants to have strong economic ties with the Arab Muslim Gulf states. This latest crisis has exposed the built-in contradictions in the BJP's domestic and international agenda. The Hindu Nationalists led by Prime Minister Modi are particularly hostile toward Muslims but also other Abrahamic faiths and the West. American journalist Walter Russell Mead described it in a recent Wall Street Journal Op Ed as follows: "Many BJP supporters want the Indian government to defend India’s Hindu civilization and culture from Islam, Christianity and Western secular liberalism. This form of Hindu nationalism leads to controversial policy initiatives". The fact that the United Arab Emirates has joined to protest is particularly significant. The Arab Muslim UAE, a grouping of seven Arab Muslim kingdoms, has now become the number one destination for education and employment of people from Hindu India, according to the government data from the two countries. India is now ruled by the right-wing Hindu BJP party headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi whose entire politics is based on extreme hatred of Islam and Muslims. In 2020, Emirati Princess Sheikha Hend bint Faisal al-Qasimi strongly criticized Islamophobia in India. She also expressed solidarity and sympathies with Indian Muslims and Kashmiris.
Recent Payment Outage in Germany Underscores One of the Dangers of a Cashless Economy: System Fragility -As recent payment outages in Germany (and elsewhere) have shown, even proponents of a cashless economy have an interest in safeguarding the future of cash, if only for the sake of financial stability. A few days ago, many shops in Germany had “CASH ONLY” signs displayed on their windows or at the entrance to their premises. Some establishments allowed people without cash to pay by card, but only if they provided a signature. It was as if parts of Germany’s payment system had just travelled through a wormhole back to the 1990’s, albeit with euros rather than the Deutsche Mark as the legal currency.According to initial reports, the cause of the problems was a software glitch affecting all H5000 payment card terminals, which are widely used by German retailers including some of the largest supermarket chains. Starting on May 24 normal card payments became all but impossible for those retailers. The problems lasted for a week or so, prompting some larger retailers to replace all of their card terminals. It’s an investment that many smaller, struggling retailers can ill afford to make right now.There are (or at least were) around 100,000 H5000 units in Germany, according to some estimates. The devices were manufactured by the US financial services provider Verifone specifically for the German market, but they are operated by eleven network operators, including Payone GmbH and Concardis GmbH.On May 27, one of those companies, Payone, reported it was facing issues with the H5000 card terminal and that the issues were occurring throughout the country: “Like other network operators, we are currently experiencing considerable restrictions in the processing of transactions with card payment terminals of the type H5000 from the manufacturer Verifone throughout Germany.”According to Handelsblatt, financial supervisors from Bafin and Bundesbank are already on the case. The German banking industry, which represents the interests of banks and savings banks, also announced that it would “analyze and process the disruption in depth in collaboration with the various parties involved and the supervisory authorities”. However, it also conceded that it will still take “a while” before the last H5000 terminal is replaced or updated.
UK set to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda on June 14 - Britain’s Home Office is pressing ahead with its brutal policy of deporting asylum seekers to Rwanda. Exactly two months after announcing its Migration and Economic Development Partnership deal with the east Africa state—under which people arriving illegally in the UK are to be sent 4,500 miles to have their asylum claim “processed”—the first flight is scheduled to depart on June 14. According to the agreement, anyone deemed to have arrived “irregularly” in the UK since January 1, 2022 may be relocated to Rwanda. Once in Rwanda, if an asylum application is deemed legitimate, the person will only be allowed to stay in Rwanda, not the UK. If not, they will be deported to a third country.
Rise in ‘needle spiking’ puts women in Britain on high alert - Britain is increasingly feeling like a hostile place for women.There have been multiple reports of “needle spiking” — which involves an injection being administered to someone without their knowledge or consent, usually in a nightclub or bar setting — as opposed to the more commonly known method of contaminating alcoholic drinks.Zara Owen, a 19-year-old student in Nottingham, central England, said she woke up after clubbing with a “sharp, agonizing pain in my leg” and “almost zero recollection” of the night before. She walked with a limp for the remainder of the day, she wrote on social media, before finding a “pinprick” and realizing that she had been “spiked” by a needle that had pierced through her jeans.Thankfully, she added, her friends — who had noticed her behaving strangely — helped her to return safely home.“The fact that this form of spiking is happening is horrifying, with the memory loss it brought me,” Owen told The Washington Post. “What is supposed to be a fun night leads us to almost fear the unknown.”The Nottinghamshire police said this week that it had received a total of 15 reports of alleged spiking with a sharp object since Oct. 2, with the majority of reports made by women, in venues across the popular university town. Two men had been arrested so far on “suspicion of conspiracy to administer poison with intent to injure, annoy or aggrieve,” the police added on Friday. Cases have also been reported elsewhere in Britain, mostly among college students, in Glasgow, Exeter and Birmingham.
Fears of needle attacks rise in Europe after hundreds of victims reported— She had eagerly looked forward to going home for the holidays and reuniting with friends over dinner and drinks. Instead, Eva Keeling, 19, says, she wound up injected by a stranger with a needle, leaving her unable to speak or function while at a bar in her hometown of Stafford, in northern England. “We went outside [the bar] for some fresh air … then I ended up losing all control of my body, the ability to walk, hold my head up, I couldn’t talk — I was projectile vomiting everywhere,” Keeling told The Washington Post. Days after her April night out, she still felt ill and, while getting dressed, noticed her arm was swollen. Feeling “petrified,” she rushed to a hospital for blood tests and was screened for diseases such as HIV. Doctors informed her she’d been injected with a “dirty needle,” causing the infection and swelling. “I was so upset and shocked that it happened to me,” she said. Keeling is one of hundreds of people across Britain and Europe who have been victims of suspected “needle spiking” — an injection administered without consent or knowledge, often in a bar or nightclub setting, in an attack similar to the more common crime of contaminating alcoholic drinks. Authorities are grappling with how to prove and combat this kind of hard-to-trace attack and are seeking to raise awareness about the small but growing number of reported cases. French police have received more than 300 complaints of injections in various regions since the end of March but have not made arrests, according to local media reports. The victims — many of them women — often report suffering memory loss or noticing injuries only later. Neighboring Belgium has seen reports of similar incidents at a nightclub, a soccer game and a Pride festival.
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